Full text of Business Conditions Digest : June 1965
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June ?965
DATA THROUGH MAY
Series ESI No. 65-6
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Data Bank of Business Cycle Series
BCD Technical Papers __
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___.
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iii
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Introduction
Method of Presentation __
.____:
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
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Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
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How to Read Charts 1 and 2
_
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
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8
10
24
Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods _ _
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
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Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
38
39
42
46
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TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
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TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE
3.
2.
4.
5.
ABOUT THE COVER—
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.
CONTINUED
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles ________________________
CHART 4. Comparisons of Specific Cycles
_________________________
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference Trough
Dates
____________________________________________
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates________________________________1 _____
TABLE 8. Comparisons From Specific Peak and Trough Levels and Specific
Trough Dates
______________________________________
58
61
64
65
66
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961 _______________________ 67
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators _______ , _________________________ 68
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series _________________________________ . _____ 69
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series ___________________________________________ 72
Appendix E, Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961_________.__________________________73
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series_______._____________74
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes ____________ _ _ _________ 75
n A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
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Changes for this issue are as follows:
1. The table showing directions of change for components of selected diffusion indexes (table 5) now
includes the signs and, where possible, the figures on
which the signs are based. Figures cannot be shown when
held confidential by the source agency or considered to
be below standards for publications. However, in such
cases, the signs continue to be shown. Consequently,
this table now shows the maximum amount of information
that can be provided each month for these component
series.
2. The series on private nonfarm housing starts
(series 7) has been revised for the period beginning
May 1959 to reflect a new seasonal adjustment.
3. The series on new private housing units authorized by local building permits (series 29) has been
revised for the period beginning January 1964 to reflect
a new seasonal adjustment. Data for 1948 to 1953 are
now plotted in chart Ij the figures and an explanation
of these data are shown in appendix F.
4- The series on newly approved capital appropriations (series 11 and Dll) and backlog of capital appropriations (series 97) have been revised by the source
agency for the period 1961 to date.
5. The index of net business formation (series 38)
has been converted to a new base with 1957-59=100.
6. Appendix F includes historical data for series 7,
29, and 38.
The July issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on July 23.
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A punch card file containing data for the business cycle series included in table
2, the diffusion indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5)
used to compute 14 of the diffusion indexes in table 4, is maintained at the
Bureau of the Census. Duplicate cards for 85 of the 87 series, the 30 diffusion
indexes, and 145 of the component series are available at cost. (The other series
can be obtained only from the sponsoring agencies.) The cost for these cards
ranges from $58 for 500 cards to $137 for 5,000 cards. One card is required
per series year. Thus, for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to date, the cost
would be about $70. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes
and 145 component series, the cost would be about $135 for the same period.
At present, the Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current.
However, the figures for the principal series and diffusion indexes required for
this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.
To aid users of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS, technical papers dealing
with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this
report from time to time. A limited number of copies of these articles are available,
free of charge. The following papers have been included as part of this program:
No. 1,—Summary Description of the X-9 and X-JO Versions of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in
the September 1963 issue). A new version of this program is scheduled
to be released later this year. Announcement will be made at that time,
No. 2.—Business Cycle Indicators—The Known and the Unknown by Julius
Shiskin (published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue).
No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H, Young (published
in May 1964 issue).
No. 4.—Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and
Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964
issue).
No, 5.—^Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures by Max
Shor and Allan Young (published in September 1964 issue).
No. 6.—The Current Expansion in Historical Perspective by Julius Shiskin
(published in January 1965 issue).
Please send requests for the material described above to Julius Shiskin, Chief Economic
Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233.
Reports in the BUREAU OF THE CENSUS TECHNICAL PAPER SERIES are also
useful to BCD readers. Two reports of particular interest are—
Tests and Revisions of Bureau of the Census Methods of Seasonal Adjustments,
Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 5, by Julius Shiskin (1961), available
from the Bureau of the Census at $1 per copy;
Estimating Trading-Day Variation in Monthly Economic Time Series, Bureau of
the Census Technical Paper No. 12, by Allan Young (1965), available from
Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington D.G.,
20402, at 30 cents per copy.
IV
D
Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of economic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
£>
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.
O
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
£>
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
g>
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
£>
£>
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 to 8).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this report,
if they are available. However, for the special purposes
of business cycle studies, a number of series that are
not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are
shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report.
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed
by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using
Census Method II. The adjustment factors are shown in
appendix D, except for those series which are the sums
of seasonally adjusted components, and those series
which are based on unpublished source data. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will
be substituted whenever they are published.
Adjustments for changes in average climatic conditions and institutional arrangements during the year are
made by Census Method II. In addition, series such
as new building permits are adjusted for variations in
the number of trading or working days and series such
as retail sales of apparel are adjusted for variable
holidays (for example, Easter).
Studies of the effect of unusual weather upon some
series have also been started. It is important to note,
however, that present methods adjust for average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this
average; that is, present methods are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal weather at any time
of the year. For this reason, many seasonally adjusted
series, such as housing starts, will tend to be low in
months when the weather is unusually bad and high
in months when the weather is unusually good. While
it eventually may be possible, Census methods do not at
present make any adjustments for such variations.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness, Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 15-term Spencer curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluc, tuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
enMM<!
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded, (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series, the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling) . Widespread in increases are often associated
with rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp
reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans,
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a,
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6, Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Direction-of-Chcmge Table
The direction-of-change table (table 5) shows directions of change (" + " for rising, uo" for unchanged,
and "—" for falling) in the components used for the
diffusion indexes. This table provides a convenient
view of changing business conditions and is helpful
in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it shows which economic activities went
up, which went down, and how long such movements
have persisted. The table also helps to show how
a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the
economy to another.
Directions of change for most diffusion index components are shown for consecutive months and, depending upon the irregularity of the series, for either
6- or 9-month spans.
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the indicator series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference trough
dates. This type of comparison shows whether, and
by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or
falls short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from reference trough dates (table 7). For the current expansion, this type of comparison measures the extent of
the rise from the trough level (February 1961) to the
level at the current month. For each earlier expan-
sion, data for a like period (same number of months
from the trough of the expansion) are compared with
the level at the trough. The same situation exists here
as for the comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier
expansions that were shorter than the current one,
the comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
from reference peak dates. These comparisons will
be made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same for
all series), comparisons are made on the basis of
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
For example, the specific peak for the index of industrial production is January 1960 (corresponding
to the May 1960 reference peak); the specific peak
for stock prices is July 1959. (See appendix B.)
Specific cycle comparisons are shown in table 8. For
earlier expansions, these comparisons differ from those
shown for reference cycles in that they show only the
period up to the next specific peak date and do not
include any part of the contraction that followed. In
many cases, therefore, the earlier comparisons cover
fewer months than those for the current expansion.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related
series for cycles prior to the period covered by the
series used currently. The principal substitutions of
this type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit),
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle indicators: Historical
time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(charts 3 and 4)
These charts compare the performance of selected indicators during the current expansion with their performance during the expansion phase of previous business
cycles, The usual date sequence followed in charts is
disregarded, and instead the data are alined at the
strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions,
the reference trough (see chart 3) and specific trough
(see chart 4). Thus, these comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the current expansion relative to
cyclical movements during the expansions of previous
cycles,
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made. Chart
3 compares the pattern of the current reference cycle
(the cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the corresponding phases of previous reference cycles. Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle (the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases of
previous specific cycles in that series. In both1 charts,the
trough dates are alined. In chart 3, the levels of the
preceding peaks are also alined while in chart 4, the
levels of the troughs are alined. See the section, "Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions of these comparisons.
IT
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 — Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted,
("12" = December)
Solid line indicates monthly data. \
(Data may be actual monthly fig- ^^
ures or MCD moving averages.*)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II" = second quarter)
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, etc.).
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable,
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12"^
December)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVfe, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and Financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
TABLE
P^
BAS|C DAJA
bed
JUNE 1965
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Feb.
1965
Mar.
1965
Percent change2
Apr.
1965
.May
1965
Average
change,
195319633
Feb.
to
Mar.
1965
Mar.
to
Apr.
1965
Apr.
to
May
1965
+0.5
(NA)
-0.4
(NA)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1.
2.
30.
3.
4.
5.
Average workweek of production workers, mfg
Accession rate, manufacturing
Nonagricultural placements, all industries
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Temporary layoff, all industries
Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
Hours
Per 100 employ.
Thous
Per 100 employ
Thous
41,3
4.1
548
1.3
124
41.4
r4.3
527
1.3
110
r40.9 •
p3.8
531
pl.4
117
do
2A8
237
21.13
3.80
(NA)
529
(NA)
102
0.5
4.8
1.8
9.4
17.8
+0.2
+4.9
-3.8
0.0
+11.3
-1.2
-11.6
+0.8
-7.7'
-6.4
237
224
5.3
+4.4
0.0
+5.5
r21.71
r4.02
r22.10
r4.12
P21.01
p4.02
3.8
4.5
+2.7
+ 5.8
+1.8
+2.5
-4.9
-2.4
58.12
4.67
P4.95
54.04
r4,84
64.26
p5.02
(NA)
(MA)
9.7
4.9
11.4
-7.0
+3.6
+18.9
+3.7
rl,468
rlOS.O
r-106.6
17,367
107.57
rl,465
rl!2.0
r!05.0
17,112
146.29
rl,526
r!04.7
r!03.6
16,504
79.51
pi, 469
pl07.6
(NA)
(NA)
139-09
7.3
3.8
1.0
2.7
16.9
-0.2
+3.7
-1.5
-1.5
-36.0
+4.2
-6.5
-1.3
-3.6
+45.6
(NA)
(NA)
-74.9
No. per week . . .
40
Ann. rate,
bit. dol
r36.6
1957-59=100....
104.8
Cents
9.8
42
33
47
13.1
-5.0
+21.4
-42.4
P105.5
6.3
0.7
6.8
+0.5
+0.2
+0.1
+1.3
+1.5
. 6. New orders, durable goods industries
Bil.dol
do
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries. . . .
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . .Mil. sq. ft
floor space...
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
: .Bil.dol
do
11. New capital appropriations manufacturing 4 .......
7.
29.
38.
13.
14.
Private nonfarm housing starts
New building permits, private housing
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
Liabilities of business failures
.
15. Large business failures
16. Corporate profits after taxes4
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. ,
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing^
22. Ratio, profits to4 income originating, corporate,
all industries
Ann. rate thous .
1957-59-100....
1957-59-100....
Number
Mil. dol. ..:....
Percent
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
1941-4340 ....
21. Change in business inventories, all industries4. 5 .. Ann. rate,
bil. dot
31. Change in book
value, manufacturing and trade
5
inventories
do
20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories
of materials and supplies*
do
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higtier
inventories
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments
60 days Or longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries5
23. Industrial materials prices*
105.3
r!05 . 5
p41.1
rll.5
86.75
+12. a
(NA)
(NA)
-3.7
+2. a
0.0
5.1
86.83
87.97
89.28
+6.8
2.6
2.5
+3.8
14-11.8
1*8.2
(NA)
3.5
+8.0
-3.6
(NA)
+0.4
14-2.5
pf4.6
(NA)
1.5
+2.1
+2.1
(NA)
61
57
61
60
6.8
-6.6
+7.0
-1.6
do...
65
68
67
65
5.8
+4.6
-1.5
-3.0
do
72
66
72
70
7.7
-8.3
+9.1
-2.8
+0.81
110.7
14-0.44
113.2
r+0.85
116.7
P+0.39
117.1
0.49
1.3
-0.37
+0.41
+3.1
-0.46
+2.3
Thous
. . do
Percent
. ..do
do
59,676
66,709
5.0
2.6
3.3
r59,992
66,890
4.7
2.5
3.1
r 59, 916
66,874
4.9
2.5
3.1
p60,064
66,979
4.6
2.5
2.9
0.3
0.4
3.9
5.6
4.8
+0.5
+0.3
+6.0
+3.8
+6.1
-0.1
0.0
-4.3
0.0
0.0
+0.2
+0.2
+6.1
1957-59=100....
do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
...... do
do ..
145
rl39.1
148
140.5
143
140.8
P145
P141.3
3.1
1.1
+2.1
+1.0
+0.2
+1.4
+0.4
+2.8
+0.5
+1.0
-2.2
+0.2
+1.3
+0.2
-0.5
+0.4
+0.1
-3.1
+0.4
+0.4
+2.5
+0.1
Percent
Bil dol
1957-59-100,...
+0.3
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
42.
43.
40.
45.
Employees in nonagricultural establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate, married males
Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State. . .
46. Help-wanted advertising
47. Industrial production
50. GNP in 1954 dollars4
49. GNP in current dollars4
57. Final sales*
5L
52.
53.
54.
55.
532.2
648.8
641.9
Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
do...
2,845.1
Personal income
511.0
do
Labor income in mining, manufacturing, constr
134.0
do
Sales of retail stores
Mil. dol
23,317
Wholesale prices except farm products and foods... 1957-59=100....
101.9
-3.4
0.0
+6.5
1.3
1.5
1.3
2,923.8
513.8
135.3
r22,805
102.1
2,962.0
2,871.5
r515.0 , P517.0
r!34.6
P135.2
r 22, 901 p23,467
102.2
P102.3
1.5
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.2
bed
TABLE
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1965
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Feb.
1965
Ann, rate,
bil. dol
1957-59=100....
do
Bil. dol
-49.00
97.1
rl05.4
63.4
Mar.
1965
Percent change2
Apr.
1965
May
1965
Average
change,
195319633
Feb.
to
Mar,
1965
Mar.
to
Apr.
1965
Apr.
to
May
1965
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and
equipment4
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP 4 ..
64, Book value of manufacturers' inventories
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans* 6
.
... do .
Mil. dol
Percent
a49.60
P97.1
3.2
0.6
0.9
0.5
-6! 2
+6! 2
+1.2
0.0
+0.5
+0.5
(NA)
0.8
0.8
2.3
+0.4
+1.1
-0.6
-0.9
+1.2
(MA)
(NA)
3.7
-3.7
+3.7
4.1
4.4
+8.9
2.5
26.9 +187.7
+6.5
+25.3
+23.7
+3.0
-21.9
-37.6
-10.3
(NA)
+20.4
+15.1
+0.8
-108
-0.7
+56.1
+31.3
-36
(NA)
(NA)
-22.9
-66
+10 . 56
+2.04
0.0
-1.68
-14.28
-7.44
96^9
r97.1
63.7
p64.0
22.4
59,603
22.5
60,240
4.97
P22.3
60,984
(NA)
(NA)
122.1
119.3
-2.8
rO.O
603
117.6
123.7
+6.1
125.2
155.0
+29.8
128.9
121.1
-7.8
1,735
1,557
(NA)
3,839
1,628
2.44
+32
4,624
1,874
r2.46
-76
4,593
2,926
r3.23
r-112
(NA)
(NA)
P2.49
p-178
15.1
26.2
23.0
104.2
-5.28
+6.24
+ 5.28
+8.28
+5.28
+6.60
p-9.00
p-0.84
2.78
2.52
(NA)
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82. Federal cash payments to public
83,
84.
95.
90.
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
Federal cash receipts from public
5
do
Federal cash surplus or deficit
4
do
Balance, Federal income and product account , 5...
Defense Department obligations, procurement
Mil. dol
91.
92.
99.
93.
85
Defense Department obligations, total
Military contract awards in U.S
New orders, defense products
Free reserves*5
Change in money supply 5
98. Change in money supply and time deposits5
110. Total private borrowing*
111. Corporate gross savings4
112. Change in business loans $
113
114
115
116
117
Change in consumer instal Iment debt 5
Treasury bill rate*
Treasury bond yields* ,
Corporate bond yields* . ...
Municipal bond yields*
118
86.
87
88
89
Mortgage yields*
Exports, excluding military aid
General imports
Merchandise trade balance^
U S balance of payments4* 5
81
94
96.
97.
do
do
Bil. dot
Mil. doi
Ann. rate,
percent
do
Ann. rate,
mil dol . . .
do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
Percent
do
do.
do
do
Mil, dol
do
.do
do
....
Consumer prices
i. 1957-59=100....
do
Construction contracts value
.
...
Bil, dol
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
do
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing 6. .
62,240
48,868
11.6
4.3
+11.04
(NA)
3.90
4.14
4.52 '
3.17
1.22
0.85
7.3
1.8
1.7
2.6
-0.68
-0.05
+0.3
-0.2
+1.1
+2.9
-6.14
+1.29
-0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.9
+4.72
(NA)
-0.8
-0.2
+0.9
+0.6
5.45
2,380.3
1,834.7
+545.6
5.45
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.58
4.6
3.6
59.0
286
0.0
+72.8
+16.8
t-891.5
0.0
-13.5
-1.8
-338.1
0.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
109.5
152
r56.38
(NA)
(NA)
P56.78
0.2
7.0
1.5
6.6
+0.1
,+0.7
+0.8
+4.1
+0.4
+7.8
+1.5
(NA)
(NA)
+0.7
+12.46
+7.64
3.94
4.15
4.49
3.18
r+6.32
+8.93
3.93
4.15
4.48
3.15
5.45
1,592.7
1,600.5
-7.8
-709
5.45
2,752.7
1,869.0
+883.7
109.0
140
55.09
109.1
141
r55.53
P15.58
+13.14
+7.69
3.93
4.16 "
4.44
3.09
r= revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available.
.
;
iSeries are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in
2To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and risewhen business falls are inverted so that
rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,5,14,15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g.,
if the rate of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as +0.6. See footnote 5 for other "change"qualifications.
3This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-63 for most series.
Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
SSince basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit or
measure
as the basic data, rather than in percent.
6
Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
CHART
BASIC DATA
bed
JUNE J965
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
py) (Fey
(p
!
2, A^ces&ion rate, mfg, (per 300 employees).j
j
30. ijonagri, placements, all jindys. (thpus.)
700
600
500
400
I
•
3. Uyoff rate, mfg. j(per 10() employees•
i \
i
"
-scale}- 4- —
n1
i^wjJUiUi!
s<jale. MCD moving avg.-f
2
5. AVg. weekly initial claims] State unempl.
2
1
I M • • ° • '• " ' i i
l^l[!lllJillJiilljiMM'UUlJiJllji]Jj[jiiLl5j|
r«TS"r"» "i
bed
CHART
JUNE 1965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
.ds indw. (bil. dol.)
j
9^ Conjtr. contracts, co(n. jmdJndus. (mil. sq. H of
order ;, plant and equip, (bil. Idol.)
propratons, mg.,
11, New1 capital appropriations,
. o
7. Private nonlarm hoi sing starts (ann.rate, m
llulllMuili^^
' ' . m 4lMR
iiiiiiUiil^
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Digitized for
12FRASER
iM
r~r •
_i ___!__
38. ilndex of net business [formation|(195J7-59=lpO}
""r'-r-ni ••rT'TT
13. New bus. incorp nations j (thous.)
J
S 1
i! I S I
JllUJU
^
I
1
1j
U
1
nverted scale. NiCD movling avg.^6 term
L
1I
!
!I
;
.=-—-^= ^-^^j.^-f-f^-
?Wv'jiliiA
. ^ . aLLj^L^li
AAslfiUyu^
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7965
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
profits-4ft€F- taxes, Q (ami. rote
labor^jost, mfg. (index,: 19^7-59=100)
—
rl8 fronts per do^or~df stileslmfg., Q -(tents^ — -
4 ~
L-
r
^
_
1
jl9._Stoek prices, 500 ioraraon stocks
L! JJjJdlJWlill ti * Jllllllllil
JJjJlijJiiiLLl' L
CHART
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
21. Change in bus. inventorie
31. Change in [book vajue, mfg^ and
MCD moving avg.-A term)
[207 Change in 1 book value, mfrjjs.' inventories
_-^.i_ • _ ! _ L ._ J
I.I/
. . I.-I
materials and supplies (am. rate, bil. do
i mi LI
t reporting higher inventories
26. Buying pol cy, pr
percent reportirg comm tments 60 day
32. Vjendor performan
nt reporting slower deliveries
•~ nni
25. Ciange in unfille<l orders dur. goods indis. (bil.
IV CD moving avg.
index: 1957^5=100)
_ _ j_
l^^
_
|
|
^......ulut^
'"fef^fii^^^
|
|
=
jii4u!^^
_J
[ M I ] JM
-J 80
bed
JUNE 7965
BASIC DATA
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
. Unem ploy merit rate, Uarried
B
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1965
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
47. Ihdustrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil.
bed
bed
JUNE
7965
BASIC DATA
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
B
CHART
BASIC DATA
bed
JUNE 1965
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
1—~t~
—j _
, new piant ana equip.. Q (ann. rate) bil. dol.)
j
68. l^abpr co|t jaer dol. of real corp. GNP, Q Jindex:i J957-5?=1PQ)
I
l
!
;'
I
«
T
I. _ _ _ _ _l
j
1!
!
!i
I
UJJL 1-i-U-L
'!
If
il
J
J
M SM i
,
||
[
65. ^ook valjue of mfrs.' inventories finished goods (bll, dol.)
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol,)
•
'. '.A
fli» III JW
HID
iiW
' jiiuj tL iJiiMillii j
HW II» «?)
3W1 111
_
fe "to i> M Ms 1 d 2," PEB i
bed
CHART
JUNE 1965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
receipts from public (qnn. rate, bil, do
dfifense^pi
MCD rifioving tfvg^SjJj rm)
|
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
+ 1,0
+ 0.5
0
J-0.5<
85. Chejnge in Jnoney supply .(jinn. rat|, percent.
+ 12
MCD moving avg. -6 term)
-2*
noney supply and time deposits!
percent. MCD moving avjg. -6
t^rm
Corporate gross savings
J112. Change in Business loans (bnn. rafe, bil. dol,
MC[D moving avg.-5 term)
[""
consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.
jmj^
1965
bed
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT— Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
iiL
iili^iliijuilm
..; ^Wm™
CHART
CHART
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
t ".rji^iri^ji:
lll
94. Construction contfocts, value (index: 1957
F" MCD moving ^ivg.-5 term)
711
apprb=pricitions, mfgrrrt^tT
L LJLJ _U_LL i
1 'i M 1
mUjJl
1 1
! li
I n
bed
JUNE 1965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
—
-t—i
h
CHART
BASIC DATA
JUNE
7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
1. Average
workweek,
production
Year and month workers
,
manufacturing
(Hours )
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January. ........
February. .......
March
April
May.
June
July
AngUSt r , , t ,
September .......
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
4.0 0
4.0 1
39 6
2. Accession 30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
rate, manurate, manu- eultural
placements, facturing
facturing
all industries
(Per 100
employees )
(Thcus.)
4.0
42
3.7
43
493
512
507
40 6
40 3
L 3
540
551
40.1
40.4
40.5
40.6
40.4
40.4
40.5
40.3
40.5
40.2
40.4
40.3
4.3
4.2
AO 3
40 5
40 3
40 4
40.1
40 4
40 5
40.4
40 4
40 5
40 6
40 5
40 7
40 2
40 7
40 6
40 7
40 6
40 6
40 6
40 8
40 -5
40.5
40.9
41 2
41.4
41.3
SKI. 4
r40.9
P41.1
41
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
38
38
38
40
39
39
39
38
38
39
37
(Per 100
employees )
22
19
22
1 Q
(Thous.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
101
136
127
348
316
329
"11 3
15
16
15
• 16
16
17
92
12
97
26
74
26
3 03
3 07
2.88
2 Ql
2 QA
2 Q6
127
557
557
569
569
01586
561
557
553'
551
557
565
543
1.8
19
17
18
20
2.0
21
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.0
1.9
135
88
118
107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120
301
295
287
283
301
304
303
305
300
304
299
310
17.70
17 70
17 15
17 02
17.22
16.65
16 91
16.59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33
3,15
3.30
2.97
3 31
552
554
555
557
5/6
5/5
541
1 Q
1 5?
1A
id
1A
1Q
•2
1 31
310
301
288
293
288
284
281
1 "3D
?QO
108
i iq
285
282
276
T d AO
1311
y
3 .y 44
1 "V
Q7
301
i nf .y07f
±
Q Al
J.Dl
19.74
£f"\
19. 50
19.26
on
^.
*£Q .y 4o
3 .62
5/.3
18
18
19
1 Q
18
1 9
20
1 Q
18
18
n 7
C 'll
-> J4
1 17
G'ip
1 Q
/ n
COO
_X*c
n si
i n
~\1 .n /
-i f.
3 Q
q S
Cp£
/ ~\
con
(NA)
(Thous.)
20
•3 Q
40
24. New orders, machinery and
equipment
industries
30 /
305
296
/ 0
4.1
'IJ]r4.3
p3.8
6. New orders, durable goods
industries
n5
/ n
4i
41
5. Average
weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance2
1 Q
52/
553
575
533
525
i n
/ n
3g
40
4. Persons
on temporary
layoff, all
industries1
C-l Q
107
138
Q5
Q?
11 A
1 PC
Q&
yo
1 op
1 ?1
19.94
20.02
21.25
121
19.34
19.91
19.62
19.45
20.72
54V
1 7
1 5
jlo
1
A
1 DQ
CpA
2-cU
"1 /
^70
13
[El 3
pi 4
(NA)
1 71
co»7
Q/lQ
257
p/ e
^4?
rT cj
COT
OJJ.
CQQ
!><::?
•I Q
O J/
^44
CT Q
D-l-7
C/Q
C/ 0
18 28
i A nA
i ft ?y
Of^n
-ioU
*n A
eno
i A 7y
17 AS
1 •]«
Ql
o n
1 .1 4
1 ^
CO"3
-^JJ
Qrt i
pon
£
/U
orf?
£((
pAe;
^op
17
pq
78
O/
Q?
8Q
O > Q
^4V
OAO
-co2
251
O / "3
^4J
oy a
110
<^ 7
117
' ?^7
i np
iilJ224
OOr?
21.27
O1 T1J
°3
^a.
v»O1 .71/I
r21
[n]r22.10
p21 . 01
3.10
3.02
3 07
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.16
3.07
OC
q 91
3 ??
3 35
Q yp
3 ?Q
3 "3?
J•a •QIjl
q /4^
p
^.
pof
Ja .&
/Q
3 .41
/1
31
.46d
3 .6X 1T
3-93
3.92
3.77
3.77
3
/ f\
.oy
3.79
rtyi
3 .88
3.92
q .70
oA
J
q OA
•«y no
ftTr>y 1 P
r\y no
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by ®; for series that move counter to movements in gener.al buainess
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by [H] . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 2Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962, the
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is Included in figures published by source agency.
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
9. Construction contracts , comYear and month mercial
and
industrial
buildings
10. Contracts and
orders ,
plant and
equipment
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space) (Bil. dol.)
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
Julyi
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
36.57
39 32
38 73
11 88
41 61
3
3
3
1
3
57
66
40
/ft
66
/I ftQ
i sn
38.70
42.75
-45.90
42.72
44.64
41 16
40.56
42 69
40.96
41.08
42.20
41.89
3.71
3.98
3.71
3 96
3 76
3 66
3.72
3 61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50 81
43.73
45.43
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4 17
4.32
4.56
51.07
51.05
48.41
53.48
46.22
47.82
52.62
47.72
51. 41
53.75
49.61
58.88
4.38
4.14
4.11
4.36
4.63
4.64
4.52
4.53
4.51
4.56
4.92
4.94
53.20
58.12
54.04
E'64.26
(NA)
4.72
4.67
r4.84
rRip5.Cti2
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations
7. New private nonfarm
dwelling
units
started
(Bil. dol.)
Revised1 3
(Ann. rate,
thous . )
Revised1
1 30 /
2 63
2 75
3 03 '
2.53
2.81
3.35
2 80
3 30
3.72
4 10
4 39
4.81
MH] 5. 00
4.52
P4.95
(id)
1
1
1
1
1
315
A26
*30Q
377
11f)
29. New private housing
units authorized by local
building permits
38. Index
of net
business
formation
(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)
Revi s ed 1
Revised1
Q^ 7
98 9
q/ 7
101 9
Q/ ft'
100 2
104 2
% Q
Q7 1
101 8
Q7 1
QQ n
13. New
business
incorporations
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures
(Number)
(Mil. dol.)
1 ^ >Q?
•) c 077
80 15
Q/
i7
"1 ft 1 /Q
1 ^ SAT
126
72
11Q
71
12
28
Q1
AT
1
1 ^ 1C] ?
i ft m*i
103 8
109 1
104 0
111 9
103 8
106 1
108.7
107 1
109 1
107.2
113 0
112.0
97 2
97 8
98.1
97 8
97 8
97 6
97 7
98 4
98 5
98 5
98 o
98 3
15 599
15 758
15 6^0
15 372
15 245
1A 9/7
15,171
15 056
15 249
14,892
14,951
14,985
101 53
86 03
77 40
107 15
89 80
93 15
107 98
121 85
136 02
129.87
96.62
99.61
1,285
1,438
1,486
1,652
1,676
1,550
. 1,574
1,522
1,248
1,706
1,592
1,522
111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
119.3
116.5
113.5
119.9
123.7
98 9
100 2
100.5
99 2
99 6
100 0
100.7
101.7
101.4
101 7
101 4
101.8
14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
16 275
15,759
15,867
146.46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
[BJ52.86
94.52
99 92
255.72
87.17
1,271
iTTll , 706
1,571
1,506
1,496
1,593
1,475
1,489
1,422
1,495
1,480
1,575
116 8
[BJ124.6
121.7
113 6
112.9
115 1
111 5
113.4
109 7
109 1
110.8
105.4
103.1
102.8
102.9
104.4
104.7
103.2
102.5
102.9
105.0
107 0
106.4
106.6
16 250
16,018
15,992
16,180
15,917
15,919
15,979
16,074
16,605
16,493
17,103
17,154
91 69
119.29
110 . 67
107.10
97.92
136.19
125.14
90.99
118.59
97.98
111.00
126.49
17 275
84 54
107.57
146.29
79 51
139 09
1,470
1,296
1,422
1,494
1,515
1 365
1,409
1 531
1,300
1,410
1,634
1,521
1,418
1,468
1,465
1,526
P 1 , 469
121.0
123 6
112 9
108.0
112 0
104 7
p!07 6
[H]107 3
106 6
105 0
103 6
(NA)
\H\ 17, 367
17,112
16 504
(MA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by [H]; for series that move counter to movements in general business
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by m] . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Revised data for the 1st and 2nd quarters, 1961, are 2.42
3
and 2.44,
respectively.
25
TABLE
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
15. Business
16. Corporate
failures with profits after
Year and month liabilities of taxes
$100,000 and
over
(Number per
week)
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April.
»
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
Jiily. ,,,,,,..,.,
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
43
36
39
42
39
38
37
5132
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
49
43
42
40
51
38
39
22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
industries
(1957-59=100)
(Cents)
(Percent)
102.0
24.5
24 5
24.9
25.0
25.7
25.5
26.6
42
3B
38
28.3
31.2
31.9
32 0
31.9
>H]r36 . 6
101.5
101.7
102 3
101 3
101 7
101.8
100 9
101 1
100.4
100 7
100.7
101.9
100.7
101.1
100.5
100.6
100.7
101.2
101.3
101 7
103.2
102 2
101.5
101.6
102.2
101.9
102.2
103 2
103 2
102 7
103 7
103.5
103 5
103.4
103 6
103.0
102.6
103 5
105.0
104.9
104.8
105.3
r!05.5
[H3pl05.5
21. Change in
19. Stock
prices, 500
business incommon stocks* ventories after
valuation adjustment, all
industries
(1941-43=10)
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
71 74
7.9
8.5
8.5
9.3
84
92
81
9.1
8.1
9.1
81
9.1
8.1
9.1
8 5
9.4
8.6
9.3
8.8
98
9.0
10 4
77 3Q
78 80
8.9
10 *>
* **
80 72
8n ?/
10 4
ap nn
101.6
26.7
35
40
42
33
47
18. Profits
(before taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all
mfg. corporations
101.4
22.0
42
' 43
41
41
38
44
39
39
44
40
42
42
42
40
17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, manufacturing
69 07
70 22
70.29
68 05
62 99
55.63
56 97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69 07
70.98
72.85
73 03
72 62
74 17
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
+3.7
+5.6
E+6.9
+6.:
+5.1
+5.4
+3.6
+3.6
+4.?
+6 4
76 /,5
+2 ^
7Q Q/
9o
Q-a
op
. -a 7
' **
40 a
aq /i
S/ &£>
87
10 4
&K
I}
_i,e 9
A'} QA
[H19.8
[Hjrll . 5
86 1 P
Aft 7^
+6 8
86 83
87 Q7
[Kh89 28
^-fis I/
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by (HI; for series that move counter to movements in general business
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by 1EJ. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Average for June 15, 16, and 17.
Digitized for26
FRASER
bed
TABLE
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7965
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
20. Change in
book value,
mf rs .! inventories of materials and
supplies
37. Purchased
materials ,
percent reporting higher
inventories
26. Production
matls., percent reporting
commitments
60 days or
longer*
32. Vendor
performance,
percent reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in
unfilled orders, durable
goods industries
23. Industrial
materials
prices*
(Ann. rate,
bil. dolj
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting )
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
+2,0
+3^1
+4 0
+1.9
+7 0
+6.2
+0.8
+2 9
46
54
57
56
52 >
55
56
55
57
59
59
54
49
52
55
55
51
53
+0.37
101 7
102 9
102 9
102 3
+1.9+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7
60
59
58
54
51
47
44
45
43
46
50
49
57
61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51
56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.63
+0 62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
100 6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
+0.6
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43
50'
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94 2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97 7
42
50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65
55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
[H]74
+0 40
+0 57
+11.2
-1.9
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0
98 5
98 5
98 9
102 4
100 9
101 4
102 5
105 7
108 2
112 0
113 2
112 5
+11.8
+3.8
[H]r+11.8
pfS.2
(NA)
+1.0
+0.4
r+2.5
p+4. 6
(NA)
60
61
57
65
65
[368
67
65
68
72
66
72
31. Change in
book value,
Year and month manufacturing
and trade inventories ,
total
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Aijgust ..,.,,.,..
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
+6.0
+ 5.7
+6.0
+2.6
+7.1
+5.6
+3.9
+2.0
+5.6
+ 5.5
+1.2
+ 5.1
+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7.2
+3.7
0.0
+3.5
+7.8
+1.6
+1.4
+0.2
+1.0
+7.3
+0.5
+8.7
+2.2
+0.3
+1 3
[H]+6.6
+0.4
[BJ61
60
72
70
66
70
+o 42
+0
+0
+0
+0
01
25
41
65
98 9
101 0
102.9
+0 16
+1 04
+0 38
+0.81
[Hj+1.26
+0.06
+0 77
+1 00
+0 27
+0 55
+0 32
+0.81
r+0 . 44
r+0 85
p+0 39
110 6
110 7
113 2
116 7
[Hjll7 1
1
116.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by IH]; for series that move counter to movements in general business
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14., 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by !±0. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for June 14, 15, and 16.
27
TABLE
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
41. Employees
in nonagricultural esYear and month tablishments
(Thous . )
42. Total non- 43. Unemployment rate,
agricultural
total1
employment,
labor force
survey1
(Thous.)
40. Unemploy- 45. Average
ment rate/ 1 weekly insured
married males unemployment
rate, State
programs2
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
46. Helpwanted advertising in
newspapers
47. Industrial
production
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February,
March
April
May
June ............
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November. .......
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December. .......
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
54,061
54,206
54,220
54,330
54,597
54,723
61,230
61,291
61,369
61,487
61,937
61,804
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.6
54,695
55,003
55,162
55,411
55,502
55,565
55,657
55,673
55,767
55,802
55,874
55,881
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
4.8
94
98
98
107
6.0
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.3
4.1
3.9
61 , 948
62,162
6^,234
6?,l67
62,565
62,693
62,623
63,015
63,147
63,070
62 921
63,336
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
8
5
5
6
5
*>
5
7
6
4
8
5
3.7
3.3
36
37
3 5
37
36
37
3 5
3 5
3 5
35
4.7
4.5
44
39
38
40
42
44
44
4.5
46
47
114
115
112
114
109
110
108
107
107
107
e!07
55,900
56,044
56,187
56,368
56,511
56,601
56,763
56,768
56,868
57,070
57,101
57,291
63,133
63,230
63,487
63,708
63,613
63,825
64,055
64,089
64,253
64,205
64,371
64,449
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.5
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.4
3.4
4.8
4.6
44
4.2
42
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.3
e!07
e!09
e!08
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
119 8
120.6
121 9
122.7
124 4
125.6
125,6
57,334
57,684
57,754
57,827
57,931
58,104
58,256
58,301
58,458
58,382
58 878
59 206
64,685
65,051
65,175
65,695
65,790
65,519
65,632
65,641
65,650
65,658
66,084
66,463
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.0
116
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.9
[EJ2.4
2.6
127.7
128.2
129.0
130 5
59 334
66,771
66 709
66,890
66,874
(El 66, 979
48
5 0
4.7
4.9
Qi'4.6
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
59 6?6
r59,992
r59 916
(wlp60 064
6.1
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.0
2.9
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
36
36
3 *5
34
34
3/
36
3 A
3 3
31
3i
m]2 9
110
110
115
117
118
120
118
121
124
111.5
112.9
111.6
113 . 4
114.9
115.8
115.0
116.4
117 5
118 0
118 2
118 1
119 0
119.0
119 7
119 1
119 8
119 4
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0
131 3
131 6
1 32 Q
123
T 33 8
126
127
13Z
134 0
135 0
1 37
1 37 7
1 37
1^6
1 3& /
rl 39 1
(Hjl48 '
143
nl/^
131 2
140 5
140 8
rtTiril/l 3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*•). Current high values are indicated by (El; for series that move counter to movements in general business
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45),current low values are indicated by LH]. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census
is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962, the
2
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
Digitized for
28FRASER
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
50. Gross
49. Gross
national
national
in
product in
Year and month product
1954- dollars current
dollars
57. Final
sales (series
49 minus
series 21)
51. Bank
debits, all
SMSA's except New
York (224
SMSA's)
52. Personal 53. Labor
54. Sales of
income
income in
retail
stores
mining,
manufacturing, and'construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.5
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.;
(Mil. dol.)
2,069.6
2,061.5
2,078.9
2,142.4
2,141.5
2,156.2
420.0
420.0
421.8
425.4
429.0
431.5
108.0
108.8
108.8
110.6
111.7
112.1
18,234
18,373
18,371
18,494
18,775
18,879
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9
2,260.6
2,155.9
2,233.1
2,299.6
2,266.6
2,249.9
2,311.3
2,268.8
2,236.7
2,340.7
2,351.5
2,324.9
431.6
434.9
437.6
440.2
441.0
441.7
443.3
444.1
446.2
447.7
449.5
452.0
112.0
113.0
114.2 115.9
115.4
115.4
116.3
116.1
117.1
116.8
116.6
117.0
18,990
19,139
19,320
19,389
19,585
19,311
19,658
19,671
19,844
19,837
20,112
20,253
100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7
2,416.2
2,345.9
2,357.2
2,472.5
2,419.2
2,368.2
2,561.0
2,463.1
2,559.0
2,605.5
2,527.4
2,610.2
454.9
454.1
456.5
457.6
460.2
462.7
464.0
466.1
468.9
472.7
473.8
477.1
117.4
117.4
118.3
118.8
120.1
120.8
120.7
120.7
122.1
122.5
122.2
123.1
20,387
20,374
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486
20,719
20,666
20,426
20,716
20,558
21,019
100.5
100.5
100.5
2,571.5
2,590.3
2,597.3
2,693.8
2,688.4
2,607.4
2,746.7
2,681.7
2,755.9
2,771.5
2,730.3
2,803.5
479.4
480.5
482.9
486.6
487.8
489.3
491.4
494.9
497.9
498.7
502.3
505.9
122.7
124.2
124.6
125.9
125.8
126.4
126.9
127.9
129.2
127.7
130.4
132.0
21,000
21,533
21,223
21,392
21,777
21,773
21,935
22,266
22,254
21,383
21,661
22,781
101.1
101.2
101.2
101.2
101.1
101.0
101.2
2,803.3
2,845.1
2,923.8
02,962.0
p2,871.5
510.2
511.0
513.8
r515.0
[H]p517.0
132.9
134.0
IEI135.3
r!34.6
P135.2
22,900
23,317
r22,805
r22,901
m]p23,467
101.7
101,9
102.1
102.2
3P102.3
402.5
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol. )
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.;
450,6
522.4
518.7
462.5
536.9
531.4
469.1
545.5
538.7
475.1
553.4
547.3
478.3
559.0
554.0
483.0
566.6
561.2
485.4
571.8
568.2
487.9
577.4
573.7
494.8
587.2
583.0
502.0
599.0
592.6
508.0
608.8
606.4
513.5
618.6
614.9
519.6
628.4
625.7
55. Wholesale
prices except
farm products
and foods
(1957-59=100)
1961
July
M.1£US+. . , ,
A
......
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
.
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Aygiig-h , . . . . , , , . .
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
522.7
634.6
628.8
(E532.2
^648 . 8
'13641.9
100.4
100.5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
101.1
101.2
101.3
101.5
101.6
101.7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by JE1; for series that move counter to movements in general business
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by [EL Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover.
The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Week ended June 15.
TABLE
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Business
expenditures,
plant and
Year and month new
equipment ,
total
(Ann. rate.
Tail, dol.)
62. Labor cost
per unit of
output, manufacturing
68. Labor cost
per dollar of
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
real corporate
GNF
64. Book value
of manufacturers1 inventories
(Bil. dol.)
65. Book value 66. Consumer
of manufacinstallment
turers1 inven- debt
tories of finished goods
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
(Percent)
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July, ...........
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
34.70
35.40
35.70
36.95
99.1
98.5
99.1
98.9
99.0
98.4
99.4
99.0
98.8
99 8
99.8
lEllOO.4
100.1
38 35
100 2
37.95
99.6
100.1
99.5
103.8
102.3
102 9
103 4
103 5
103.2
100.1
36.95
38.05
40.00
41.20
42.55
43.50
45.65
47.75
[E49.00
ra49.60
a50.80
X
99.7
99 6
99,1
98 9
98 9
97.9
98 8
99 5
99.1
98 6
99.0
98.6
97.9
97.9
98.4
97.6
97.6
97.7
97.8
97.5
98 2
98.6
97 9
96 5
96 7
97 1
96 9
r97.l
P97.1
104.2
104.8
104.7
104.6
104 2
104 8
105 2
(HJ106 2
53.6
53.9
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.1
18.3
18.5
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.8
41,903
41,987
42,052
42,221
42,442
42,774
5e 4
55.7
56.0
56 1
56.4
56 3
56.9
57 0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8
19 0
19 1
19.1
19 2
19 3
19 4
19 5
19 5
19 7
19.7
19 8
19.8
42 , 960
43,220
43,532
44,017
44,437
44 826
45,200
45 588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174
57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2
47,659
48 , 1 54
48,631
49 , 1 52
49 , 593
50,079
50,588
51 , 069
51 , 410
51 , 941
52,324
52,784
60 0
60.1
60 3
60.5
60 5
60 4
60 *>
60 8
61 0
61 8
62 4
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
6? Q
r!05 4
2
4
4
6
6
5
6
6
6
8
21 Q
?P ?
63 2
00 /
63 L
oo ./4
£<£,
63 7
m]p64 0
fNA)
rtroo
Ltlj<< .z 5
n pp Q
fWAl
<£ .4
4.99
4.96
4.98
5.01
4.99
(Hi 5. 02
5.00
5.01
5.01
5.00
53 212
53 791
5"Z 31*5
4 99
54 727
5*5 220
55 590
4 99
S6 073
eA ens
c.n nQ-]
/ QA
67 / 31
57 732
58 292
58 962
59 603
60 240
[ED60,9B4
5 00
/ Q7
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high values are indicated by [H]; for series that move counter to movements in general business
activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated by El. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover, The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
3d quarter 1965. Anticipated figure for 4th quarter 1965 is 52.10.
Digitized30
for FRASER
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
82. Federal
cash payments
Year and month to public
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
83. Federal
cash receipts
from public
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
84. Federal
cash surplus
(+), or
deficit (-)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dolj
95. Surplus
(+), or
deficit (-),
Federal income
and product
account
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Mil. dol.)
91. Defense
Department
obligations9
total
(Mil. dol.)
92. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
(Mil. dol.)
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January. . . .
February
March
April
May
June
9£.4
112.9
103 9
108 8
107.1
106 1
91.8
99.9
100 3
99 7
100 9
101 7
-6.6
-13.0
36
-9 1
-6 2
44
109.4
113 0
107 3
108.3
108.6
111.5
114. 5
109.1
114.4
112.4
117.2
113.6
102.2
101 9
101 2
105.7
109.1
105.0
110.9
108.2
108.9
107.0
110.0
108.3
-7 2
-11 1
6 1
-2 6
+0.5
-6.5
-3 6
-0.9
-5.5
-5.4
-7.2
-5.3
114.3
111.4
118.5
113.6
116.4
115.4
119.0
120.3
118.4
122.4
108.9
110.2
110.8
107.6
113.6
112.3
113.0
116.6
112.7
114.6
114 7
118.0
-5.4
-1.2
-7.7
-6.0
-2.8
-3.1
-6.0
-3.7
-5.7
-7.8
-5.0
+0.5
-10.2
+1.0
-3.6
-0.1
117.9
122.2
121 1
117.4
118.5
113.0
126.6
115.0
119.5
116.2
122.0
109.2
114.3
113.9
111 7
113.0
114.8
114.5
114.2
122.1
122.1
117.6
125.2
128.9
113.1
119 3
123.7
155.0
121.1
-9.0
-2.8
+6.1
+29.8
-7.8
119 7
117.5
125.2
118.5
119.8
122.1
118.5
-9.3
-3.6
-8,3
-9.4
-4.4
-3,7
+1.5
-12.4
-3.4
-2.6
-4.4
-4.6
-2.9
-4.5
-4.8
-1.0
-0.7
1,181
2,278
1 933
1,354
1,286
1 773
-2.4
-7.8
5.2
-5.0
rO.O
2,087
2 232
L 87/
2 1 S8
2 651
4 296
4,121
4 6*53
2,379
2 281
1,758
1,228
1,410
1,791
1,039
1,311
1,657
1,395
1,040
1,675
1,787
1,205
4,434
4,086
4,421
4,477
3,999
4,082
4,517
4,385
3,892
4,535
4,920
4,140
3,073
2 135
2,225
2,062
1,887
1,930
2,017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984
1,586
1,206
1,366
1,215
1,358
1,363
1,132
1,700
1,207
1,094
1,273
4,632
4,137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4,580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371
2,198
2,435
2,154
1,966
2,240
2,334
2,419
2,733
2,578 •
2,086
1,681
2,079
1,075
1,843
1,237
1,389
1,910
1,079
1 , 494
803
1,141
889
1,089
1,870
4,351
5,317
4,133
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325
2,149
2,689
1,598
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883
966
603
1,735
1,557
(NA)
4,278
3,839
4,624
4,593
(NA)
1,830
1,628
1,874
2,926
(NA)
2,010
+0.6
3,784
5,344
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
31
TABLE
BAS|C DATA
JUNE 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
93. Free
99. New
reserves*
orders, defense products
(Bil. dol.)
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
•Tilly, ,..,,,....,
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December. .......
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August.
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
(Mil. dol.)
85. Change in
total U.S.
money supply
98. Change in
money supply
and time deposits
(Ann, rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent )
2.11
1.96
1.92
1.97
1.86
1.82
+ 530
+ 537
+ 547
+442
+517
+419
0.00
+2.52
+ 5.04
+3.36
+6,60
+3.36
+ 5.40
+6.00
+6.96
+6.36
+8.52
+ 5.28
1.99
2.05
2.11
2.24
2.2-4
2. OS
2.07
1.94
1.88
2.09
1.70
2.53
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
0.00
+1.68
+2.52
+3.24
-2.40
+0.84
-0.84
-0.84
-1.68
+4.08
+ 5.76
+4.92
+6.84
+10.92
+10.92
+7.68
+1.56
+6.12'
+4.56
+4.08
+4.56
+9.52
2.89
2.09
2.42
+375
+301
+269
+313
+247
+138
+161
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209
+3.24
+3.24
+4.08
+2.40
+3.24
+4.80
. +6.36
+1.56
+3.12
+5.52
+9.48
-2.40
+8.28
+8.28
+9.12
+ 5.76
+ 5.76
+7.56
+8.52
+7.92
+6.48
+8.76
+13.80
+4.08
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
1.87
+175
+89
+99
+167
+82
+4.68
0 00
+3.12
+s /o
2.37
2.44
r2.46
r3.23
p2.49
1.97
2.40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
+120
+2 28
0.00
+8 52
+135
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168
+8.52
+3,84
+6.12
+4.56
+3 84
+2,28
+103
+3 00
-5.28
+5.28
+5.28
p 9 00
+ 32
-76
r-112
p 178
1
+10.44
+11.40
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.;
111. Corporate 112. Change in
gross savings business loans
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.;
39 916
33,176
42 784
35,904
/ Q /gn
36 664
^3 388
37,780
/& Q72
39,040
/a £QA
40 296
44,628
38 AQ?
55,916
38,652
57,348
40 , 372
58,772
39,892
c. 2 i > &
44 , 200
66 524
45 064
S7 ^LA
L^ /68
An 9O/
/ / 87A
A9 9/ n
/ o aid
+9 96
+4 44
+A LL
+4
+9
+8
+7
+8
+8
+10
+7
44
72
76
44
16
64
68
20
+11 76
+6 24
+8 28
+6 60
p 0 84
(Ann. rate,
Ml. dol.)
+2.18
+1,00
+0.56
+0.01
-0.01
+1.72
+2.90
+1.53
+2.23
+2.09
+2.09
+2.77
+2.66
+3.85
+2.82
+2.82
+2.28
+0.95
+1.43
+1,4?
+1.85
+2.^0
+2.35
+1 74
+1 97
+2 04
+2 OB
+4 66
+5.??
+5 7B
+1
+3
+1
+3
+4
+3
+4
+4
+4
+1
+0
+8
79
48
4?
17
25
89
31
78
?8
43
3?
6?
+1? i1)
+1 3 1 1
+12 46
r+6 32
+11 04
n-1 7/
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Average for bi-weekly period ended June 16.
32
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7965
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
113. Change in 114. Treasury
bill rate*
consumer inYear and month stallment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
(Percent)
115 . Treasury
bond yields*
(Percent)
116. Corporate 117. Municipal 118. Mortgage
bond yields*
bond yields*
yields*
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
S6. Exports
excluding
military aid
shipments ,
total
(Mil. dol.)
1961
July
August .
September .......
October
November
December
1962
January
February. .......
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1964
January.
February
March
April
May
June
July
August.
September
October
November
December .......
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
+0.10
+1 01
+0.78
+2.03
+2.65
+3.98
2.27
2.40
2.30
2.35
2.46
2.62
3.90
4.00
4.02
3.98
3.98
4.06
4.74
4.75
4.69
4.45
4.48
4.56
3.52
3.52
3.53
3.42
3.41
3.47
5.68
5 68
5-. 69
5.70
5.70
5.69
1,688 5
1 688 9
1 , 678 . 4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8
+2.23
+3.12
+3.74
+5.82
+ 5.04
+4.67
+4.49
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+ 5.80
+ 5.82
2.75
2.75
2.72
2.74
2.69
2.72
2.94
2.84
2.79
2.75
2.80
2.86
4.08
4.09
4.01
3.89
3.88
3.90
4.02
3.98
3.94
3.89
3.87
3.87
4.55
4.54
4.42
4.31
4.26
4.30
4.41
4.39
4.28
4.27
4.23
4.28
3.34
3.21
3.14
3.06
3.11
3.26
3.28
3.23
3.11
3.02
3.04
3.07
5.69
5.68
5.65
5,64
5.60 ,
5.59
5.58
5.57
5.56
5.55
5.54
5.53
1,668.3
1,809.3
1,672.0
1,795.4
1,761.7
1,835-6
1,748.3
1,702.5
1,907.9
1,542.8
1,724.6
1,838.7
+5.82
+ 5.94
+5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+ 5.83
+6.11
+ 5.77
+4.09
+6.37
+4.60
+5.52
2.91
2.92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3.00
3.14
3.32
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52
3.89
3.92
3.93
3.97
3.97
4.00
4.01
3.99
4.04
4.07
4.11
4.14
4.22
4.25
4.26
4.35
4.35
4.32
4.34
4.33
4,40
4-36
4.42
4.49
3.10
3.15
3.05
3.10
3.11
3.21
3.22
3.13
3.20
3.20
3.30
3.27
5.52
5.48
5.47
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5-45
5.45
5.45
5.45
985.7
2,123.6
1,957.8
1,913.7
1,895.2
1,803.1
1,840.8
1,922.1
1,958.2
1,967.5
1,965.6
2,090.8
+5.14
+6.95
+6.29
+4.94
+ 5.92
+4.44
+5.80
+ 5.22
+6.16
+4.92
+3.61
+6.72
3.53
3.53
3.55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.51
3.53
3.58
3.62
3.86
4.15
4.H
4.18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.13
4.14
4.16
4.16
4.12
4.14
4.49
4.38
4.45
4.49
4.48
4.49
4.43
4.43
4.49
4.49
4.47
4.47
3.22
3.28
3.28
3.20
3.20
3.18
3.19
3.23
3.25
3.18
3.13
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5,45
5-46
5.46
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
2,042.9
2,046.2
2,074.0
2,061.1
2,061.8
2,034.2
2,122.9
2,108.8
2,235.3
2,154.8
2,196.8
2,430.4
+8 04
+7.69
+7.64
+8 93
(NA)
3.83
3.93
3.94
3.93
3.90
4.14
4.16
4.15
4.15
4.14
4.44
4.44
4.49
4.48
4.52
3.06
3.09
3.18
3.15
3.17
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
1,217.3
1,592.7
2,752.7
2,380,3
(NA)
3.14
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*•). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "rl! indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" not available.
33
BASIC DATA
JUNE 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
88. Merchan87. General
imports, total dise trade
balance
Year and month
(series 86
minus series
87)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
89. Excess,
receipts (+)
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments
(Mil. dol.)
81. Consumer
prices
(1957-59=
100)
94. Construction contracts, value
(1957-59=
100)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations ,
manufacturing
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
Revised 1 a
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June . . . . . . . . . . . .
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
JxLLy
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January. ........
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3
1,326.5
1,319.8
1,341.7
1,365.0
1 , 404 . 1
1,350.7
1,346.6
1,345.9
1 , 471 . 4
1,312.1
1,424.9
1,376 5
+341 . 8
+489 . 5
+330.3
+430 4
+357.6
+484.9
+401 . 7
+356.6
+436.5
+?30 7
+?99.7
+462 2
1,099.9
1,510.4
1,484.8
1 , 414 . 6
1,416.3
1 , 430 . 9
1,449.5
1 , 497 . 3
1 , 443 . 3
1,455.4
1 , 465 . 5
1,479 8
-114.2
+613 2
+473 0
+499 1
+478 9
+372.2
+391 . 3
+424.8
+514-9
+512.1
+500.1
+6ll 0
1,434.4
1,460.3
1,519.5
1,540.6
1,539.4
1,518.4
1,578.1
1,574-9
1,546.4
1,547.7
1,697.7
1,642.2
+608.5
+585.9
+554.5
+520.5
+522.4
+515.8
+544.8
+533.9
+688.9
+607.1
+499.1
+788.2
1,206.4
1,600.5
1,869.0
1,834.7
+10.9
-7.8
+883.7
+545.6
(NA)
(NA)
-700
-1,231
-748
-440
-334
681
-1 062
1 29*5
153
-134
-248
584
***
607
1 322
70Q
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5
110
116
103
114
116
119
43 43
43 85
43 86
44.11
44.52
45.17
104.7
104.9
105 1
105 3
105 4
105 4
105.3
105 5
105 9
105 8
105 8
1 nc Q
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
ill
45 80
46 42
106 1
106 1
106 2
106 3
106 4
106 7
106 9
107 1
106 9
107 0
107 2
107 7
107 8
107.7
107 8
108 0
108 1
108 1
108 1
108 2
108 3
108 4
108 6
108 9
109 0
109 0
109 1
109 5
(NA)
117
123
i 3ft
121
/^
/*>
//
LL
LL
y3
y3
y3
7^
/1
QS
5ft
33
73
37
^ft
y 3 iA
y I no
i C fj f
4P*
f4
/ A Aft
12^
y 7 O.P
^3
4'
y7 ftA
T 3*i
126
l 3?
128
146
i //
148
1A7
143
140
1 3ft
138
1 3ft
140
121
131
136
S 3?
g 26
...
8 ft1
***
S oft
9 . q&
Jo
/ 7 A7
i n fK
/7 17
m nft
...
y A Aft
47
47
47
yft
yQ
en
51
07
64
80
fty
?2
ny
30
' **
n
An
...
12 OB
...
T q pq
51 37
S2 i y
S3 i y
eq y-i
eq n£
137
140
~\ l"\
e. i
(NA)
ft//
...
y 7 ?£
yA 7y
yA 7H
1/3
1 ^y
1*5?
S 15
y e nA
l on
11 ft
1/ /
8 09
fjd
ce AQ
-P^e PJ>
e-3
rpD.
-r^A
•n^A
U
5/"
U
Q7
. ..
r^l ^ .^S
p!5
5o
^ft
7ft
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
^See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Revised data for the 1st and 2nd quarters, 1961, are 8.15 and 8.02,
34
respectively.
bed
BASIC DATA
JUNE 7965
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
47. United
States,
industrial
Year and month production
(1957-59=
100)
123. Canada, 122. United
industrial
Kingdom,
production
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
121. OECD,1,
European
countries ,
industrial
production
(!957-,59=
100)
125. West
Germany,
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
126. France, 127. Italy,
industrial
industrial
production
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
128. Japan,
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April.
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
112
113
112
113
115
116
109
111
112
112
114114
113
111
110
109
. 109
109
120
119
120
121
122
123
122
121
124
115
116
118
113
118
118
119
119
120
119
120
119
113
115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119
120
120
108
110
111
110
113
114
113
114
115
110
113
110
120
121
122
123
124126
126
125
126
126
126
127
120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131
110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
128
128
129
130
131
132
133
134.
134
131
128
118
118
139
119
119
122
138
137
140
145
149
148
169
172
172
175
176
177
122
124
123
124
125
124
125
126
127
127
128
127
126
129
125
128
129
130
130
131
132
132
133
132
122
123
124
123
124
123
1?5
125
126
128
128
126
149
151
149
151
153
147
151
149
150
153
158
160
182
178
181
181
182
180
179
180
181
179
179
178
121
121
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
134
135
136
136
129
128
132
133
133
139
134
136
136
138
140
139
127
125
116
129
133
134
129
129
136
137
136
138
158
155
lol
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
173
170
179
184
184
191
190
191
203
202
207
211
214
217
138
133
134133
135
132
133
133
135
135
135
139
140
123
1?3
123
124
123
123
122
123
123
128
128
129
139
139
140
139
141
139
138
137
140
144
143
143
142
144
145
14,0
150
143
147
145
145
r!50
r!47
r!50
140
139
139
141
140
141
132
132
141
141
140
138
172
169
173
168
166
164
166
156
165
165
166
166
219
224
224
226
229
234
234
234
239
242
237
240
1 "38
r!42
139
14.0
141
p!41
141
130
129
p!43
(NA)
p!28
(NA)
r!46
r!46
pl43
(HA)
r!56
r!57
148
p!51
(NA)
138
140
139
pl41
(NA)
rl66
169
pl65
(NA)
242
r237
p242
(MA)
VTS
123
124
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete
titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA11, not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
35
Section TWO
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS9 FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—?3 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 fypes of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 7965
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Current expansion
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Feb.
1965
Apr.
1965
Mar.
1965
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
May
1965
July
1953
May
1960
July
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
6
1
6
7
1
7
9
1
5
1
2
15
1
1
4
1
1
3
7
5
2
2
2
10
24
21
24
42
2
1
4
9
24
38
16
24
2
1
2
3
1
2
3
4
16
25
2
1
X
20
0
3
21
5
24
0
24
0
2
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
& months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark d&t?. ,,,,,,,
2
1
5
5
11
45
1
10
9
11
82
11
91
2
1
8
11
73
3d month before business cycle peak
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Aug.
194$
Apr.
1953
Apr.
1957
Feb.
1960
2
1
1
1
3
3
1
1
3
2
3
4
11
0
3
3
11
27
2
3
11
27
1
4
11
36
6th month before business cycle peak
May
1948
Jan.
1953
Jan.
1957
Nov.
1959
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
,
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
21
4
4
13
2
1
2
2
2
5
1
2
1
4
.
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
1
S
^0
5
21
5
24
0
13
2
9
1
1
2
1
2
3
"5
24
0
2
'*3
^0
15
1
1
1
1
4
1
2
3
7
3
21
33
18
"i
2
1
6
7
3
2
2
2
1
2
1
24
0
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
...
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
•
1
"l
1
2
6
11
55
5
4
11
36
3
3
2
11
18
4
5
11
45
1
3
5
11
45
1
3
6
11
55
4
4
11
36
4
2
1
"i
3
11
27
NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
1
4 series were not available.
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted
were disregarded in this distribution.
3
38
because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks
bed
JUNE 7965
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
krs., mjfg.-2l Indus.
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations--47 i
D34| Profits, FNtB oi NY, percent reporting
" '
'" 700 cos_0-Qjspan)
D19. ||Stod prices, 5(50 comr on stoiks-80 Indus.
' t'V TV
: "^
T
Industrial materials prices
ces-13 lindus. rritls.
===== I; - - =•
tial cla'ims, State uneml'pL insur.-47
U
CHART
CHART
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1965
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT- Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
!
nrr
1
Percent
1
D'
1. Empl jyees ir nonagr. esta!
(6-mp. span —
r\k
\f\
I
: ..._i.. _L_ 1 .
.
AW
if*
II
30 indus.
1-mo. sp
k
/$^
I/
f i /^J
trial production-24 ind
. span -—I
1-mb. spa'n
in mi , iuEmauJjifluimiMMMiyLiiiy M!MMM n nuuiJui /JUirJ irj u...
' Sil.'-tWI • llW TiW HIM \lii •/»•
iriisn¥Si"»llil; p
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 7965
CHART
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Percent
loadings-19| mfrd. commodity groups
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows;
Series number and
date of survey
D35,D36(Apr. 1965)
D48 (Mar, 1965}
D61 (May 1965)
IMlM
Actual
IstQ 1964- 1st Q 1965
2nd Q 1963 - 2nd Q 1964
4th Q 1964 - 1st Q 1965
Anticipated
3rd Q 1964 - 3rd Q 1965
2nd Q 1964- 2nd Q 1965
2nd Q 1965 - 3rd Q 1965
bliiyUiiily.uilU(i
41
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and
month
D6. Value of manufacturers1
new orders, durable goods
industries (36 industries)
Dl. Average wor&week,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
9-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
1961
July
August
September. .....
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
I960
January
February
March
April
May
June
61.9
64.3
40.5
92.9
71.4
23.8
95.2
90.5
64.3
92.9
92.9
100.0
36.1
63.9
47.2
55.6
61.1
58.3
81.9
83.3
79.2
86.1
76.4
80.6
21.4
61.9
85.7
76.2
28.6
31.0
38.1
54.8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7
85.7
83.3
5Q.O
23.8
52.4
54.8
42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0
63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
77.8
63.9
63.9
47.2
47.2
45.8
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4
76.2
50.0
61.9
14.3
85.7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
B3.3
61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
4.8
8ft. 1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54. 8
71.4
14.3
76.2
64.3
92.9
85.7
50.0
52.4
73.8
33.3
85.7
73.8
88. 1
78.6
78.6
95.2
r6l.9
55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1
76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63.9
r6l.l
r68,l
p66.7
48.6
38.9
r63.9
r50.0
P47.2
P75.0
52.4
59.5
76.2
rai.4
pB3.3
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
NICE (17 industries)
1-quarter
span
3-quarter
span
Revised13
Revised13
68
74
*50
'?6
65
47
32
*76
'?6
53
59
'?4
4?
53
*59
*53
*53
'68
*65
*82
53
76
*56
'65
53
44
32
p56
p76
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: l-month indexes are placed on
latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d
quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5
identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
Revised data for the 1st and 2nd quarters, 1%1, are 50 and 53, respectively.
3
Revised data (centered) for the 4th quarter I960 and the 1st and 2nd quarters, 1961, are 50, 59, and 68, respectively.
3
Digitized 42
for FRASER
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and
month
D34. Profits,
mfg., FNCB
(around 700
corporations )
1-quarter
span
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962,
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
58
'56
54
*47
48
*56
50
59
*56
'55
57
.
March
April
May
June
July
*60
*57
Alight .........
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
*56
55
D19. Index of stock prices,
500 common stocks
(80 industries)1
1-month
span
9-month
span
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
span
9-month
span
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22d
(47 areas)
1—month
span
9-month
span
42.5
81.2
40.0
46.9
87.5
55.0
76.2
73.7
71.2
67.5
70.0
62.5
38.5
46.2
57.7
34.6
15.4
69.2
53.8
53.8
53.8
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.8
57.4
47.9
80.9
72.3
31.9
100.0
93.6
88.3
95.7
93.6
80.9
25.6
75.0
47.5
8.7
1.2
1.2
69,4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4
17.5
6.2
7.5
3.1
3.7
2.5
1.2
3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
95.0
53.8
46.2
46.2
42.3
42.3
46.2
23.1
30.8
50.0
53.8
53.8
53.8
38.5
30.8
30.8
38.5
23.1
15.4
30.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
46.2
61.5
46.8
76.6
38.3
48.9
46.8
19.1
63.8
61.7
42.6
36.2
72.3
36.2
80.9
55.3
48.9
36.2
46.8
44.7
38.3
27,7
27.7
53.2
74.5
53.2
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4
61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65-4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
34.0
89.4
31.9
47.9
46.8
68.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4
44.7
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4
74-7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6
53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0
73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3
80.5
53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
2
69. 2
69.2
76,9
24.5
57.4
66,0
61.7
59.6
78.7
92.2
81.8
64.3
70.8
66.9
.
2
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on
"latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no adjustment and D34 which is adjusted
only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
The diffusion index is based on 82 components, Jul^r 1961 to February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; on
79 components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
2
Average for June 14, 15, and 16.
43
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and
month
D41, Number of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
(30 industries)
1-month
span
1961
JvtLy
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
JtLLy
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July.
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
6-month
span
D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)
1-month
span
6-month
span
D54. Sales of retail
stores (24 types
of stores)
1-month
span
9-month
span
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (23 manufacturing
industries )
1-month
span
6 -month
span
71.7
76.7
56.7
80.0
81,7
68.3
81.7
88.3
83.3
78.3
B8.3
83.3
77.1
72.9
54.2
87.5
83.3
75.0
95.8
91.7
91.7
87.5
87.5
95.8
60.4
68.8
39.6
83.3
87.5
60.4
87.5
87.5
95.8
91.7
87.5
89.6
52.2
56.5
58.7
41.3
43.5
54.3
39.1
43.5
52.2
50.0
54.3
56.5
65.0
75.0
75.0
86.7
60.0
53.3
61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
48.3
43.3
86.7
88.3
81.7
78.3
73.3
71.7
51.7
45.0
41.7
35.0
43.3
50.0
25.0
87.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
66.7
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4
83.3
79.2
70.8
91.7
77.1
83.3
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5
58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
87.5
91.7
91.7
89.6
89.6
72.9
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3
67.4
52.2
58.7
60.9
47.8
41.3
41.3
28.3
43.5
32.6
56.5
30.4
60.9
63.0
58.7
54.3
58.7
43.5
32.6
41.3
37.0
30.4
'26.1
26.1
65.0
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53.3
80.0
60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3
79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
72.9
83.3
83.3
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1
41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
67.4
32.6
47.8
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6
53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88,3
7S.3
75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
75.0
91.7
86.7
80.0
90,0
90.0
58.3
79.2
70.8
83.3
70.8
62.5
79.2
68.8
43.8
66.7
70.8
79.2
91.7
95.8
85.4
91.7
87.5
87.5
81.2
68.8
87.5
83.3
87.5
87.5
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
45.8
52.1
37.5
64.6
62,5
62.5
79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83. 3
75.0
68.8
83.3
81.2
60.4
r66.7
63.0
67.4
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
60.9
52.2
60.9
69.6
69.6
69.6
54.3
56.5
56.5
60.9
5B.7
60.9
r69.6
r?8.3
82.6
66.7
81,7
86.7
r55.0
P56.7
rS3.3
p76.7
75.0
r62.5
r77.1
r64.6
P72.9
r83.3
p83.3
50.0
72.9
r20.8
r54.2
P83.3
63.0
60.9
67.4
r71.7
P58.7
76.1
p76.1
P77.1
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on
latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month .indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally
adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
44FRASER
Digitized for
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Year and
month
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
D36. New orders, durable
manufactures
(400 companies)
D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured commodity
groups)
D61. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
1961
July
August
September
October
November
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
*82
*88
82
*86
73.7
89.5
+125
*8l
*86
*78
82
63.2
89^5
+62
80
*88
*76
*84
57 '.9
94.7
-68
*76
'so
74
74
63^2
89.5
^96
*72
74
71
70
42*.i
63.4
-67
74
*82
*76
*76
63.*2
63*.2
+29
*76
80
77
*76
73.7
78.9
+39
*74
'so
*76
*76
57.9
68.4
+44
*82
*84
*82
80
78.9
78.9
+21
*84
*85
82
*84
68.*4
73.7
r-27
*S3
*87
*84
84
(NA)
68.4
+34
'82
*86
'si
*84
94.7
+68
*83
87
*84
*84
89.' 5
+51
*88
*85
89 '.5
r+41
*88
*84
56.2
62.5
59^4
65*6
65.6
62.5
68*.8
63]8
65*.6
65*. 6
46.*9
6s!s
40.6
50.0
65*6
75*0
75.0
71.9
71.9
75.0
71.9
50.0
62*. 5
56! o
84.4
75-0
96!9
68*.S
56.2
65.6
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
r68.'8
1
78*.i
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in
the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are^used
for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago), require no seasonal adjustment. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
X
3d quarter 1965.
45
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
JUNE 7965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1965
1964
Diffusion index title and components
Apr.
May
June
Aug.
July
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average weekly hours
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(21 industry components)
All manuf acturing industries
40.7
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
40.3
Lumber and wood products
40.2
Furniture and fixtures
41.2
Stone, clay, and glass products....
41.7
Primary metal industries
41.2
Fabricated metal products
41.8
Machinery, except electrical
42.2
Electrical machinery
40.5
Transportation equipment
42.1
Instruments and related products . . . 40.7
Misc . manufacturing industries
39.8
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
41.1
Tobacco manufactures
39.9
Textile mill products
41.0
Apparel and related products
36.2
Paper and allied products
42.8
Printing and publishing
38.7
Chemicals and allied products . . . .
41.6
Petroleum and related products
41.6
Rubber and plastic products,
41.2
Leather and leather products
37.8
40.6
40.6
40.6
40.8
41.4
41.3
41.4
40.9
41.1
40.2
40.2
41.2
41.6
41.5
41.7
42.3
40.4
41.9
40.8
39.5
40.6
39.9
41.1
41.4
41.5
41.4
42.4
40.3
42.6
40.9
39.5
40.4
40.3
41.0
41.5
41.5
41.6
42.4
40.6
41.7
41.0
39.8
40.4
40.4
41.2
41.3
42.2
41.7
42.5
40.6
42.6
41.0
40.0
41.0
40.3
41.6
41.7
42.4
42.3
43.0
41.1
43.5
41.3
39.9
41.0
40.1
42.0
41.7
42.4
42.5
43.1
41.2
43.3
41.5
39.9
41.4
40.7
42.0
41.7
42,5
42.7
43.4
41.3
43.6
41.6
40.0
40.9
40.4
41.1
41.2
43.7
41.8
42.2
40.5
42.4
40.5
39.4
41.6
40.9
41.6
41.9
41.7
42.4
43.1
40. S
42.5
41.1
39.8
41.0
39.7
41.0
36.0
42.9
38.5
41.6
41.9
41.4
38.1
40.9
39.0
40.9
36.0
42.7
38.4
41.4
41.6
41.2
37.9
40.6
39.6
40.8
36.0
42.9
38.4
. 41.4
41.6
40.7
37.9
40.8
38.4
41.2
35.9
43.0
38.6
41.3
42.1
41.8
37.9
41.3
38.4
42.2
36.8
43.1
38.5
41.8
41.3
42.3
37.5
41.0
39.3
42.0
36.7
43.0
38.5
41.9
41.7
42.4
38.1
41.0
38.8
42.0
36.8
43.2
38.5
41.8
42.2
42.4
38.3
40.8
36.1
41.3
35.9
42.5
38.5
42.4
42.8
41.2
38.4
40.9
37.3
41.6
36.7
43.2
38.5
41.9
42.0
41.7
38.5
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonf errous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums.
Hardware, structural metal and
wire products
Other fabricated metal products....
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material
handling*
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
20,461
3,641
2,077
19,945
3,175
1,727
20,016
3,472
1,943
21,254
3,539
2,071
1,968
2,938
153
21,271
3,739
2,232
21,130
3,802
2,291
21,714
3,593
2,018
22,09B
3,448
1,870
21,012
2,077
19,342
3,280
1,825
2,013
2,069
1,946
2,068
2,110
2,065
2,105
1,988
2,956
185
3,030
248
2,909
203
2,952
281
3,092
209
3,050
185
3,100
166
3,142
154
3,130
44
552
245
525
209
524
233
542
206
528
205
525
234
575
267
598
213
586
226
591
215
194
200
211
224
211
237
234
245
282
227
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
-'•Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
Digitized for
46FRASER
3,308
1,606
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Directions of Change
1-month spans
1964
Diffusion index title and components
+>
ft
f
OJ
1965
>
O
O
o
q
Q)
CO
r H U p P < - P t >
i
l
$
9-month spans
<
S
&
0
S
%
<U
pj
m
in
,0
S
l
1964
PM
^
^4
£
Co
^
l
£
b
p
p
|> c
o
jQ
S
Q
<
1965
.
p
>
o
g
,
n
i
h
F
-
i
p^ j c
a S^
(
jg ^ ^
| >^ > ^
q H^ b ^f
h
<
<u
erf
3
<u
f
e
id
S
J
9<
S
*2
t
3
-
3
-
P
3
<
^
l|
5
!
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
71
76
64
93
52
60
76
21
83
74
4
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
0 -
+
-
+
+
-
O
4
-
-
4
33
-
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
0-
-
-
+
0
+
-
O
O
+
+
-
+
O
+
O
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
. 4-
-
+
4 - -
-
+
-
+
-
-
O
-
O
4
-
4
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
O
+
+
+
-
+
O
+
+
-
4-
4-
+
O
O
+
+
-
+
4
-
-
+
4-
-
+
O
-
+
O
-
+
-
4
4
.
...
Leather and leather products
-
-
+
-
4
-
-
+
+
-
+
-
-
O
+
O
88
-
62
67
+
79
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
79
95
+
+
--
f
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
4,
-
-
4
-
O
4
-
4
+
4.
+
4.
+
-
4
+
-
+
+
+
+
+ 4 -
+
+
f
+
-
-
+
h
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
J-
+
-
+
+
_
+
+
+
'+
+
+
_
_
-
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
O+
74
4
+
4
O-
-
: . -
41-
86
4
+
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Misc . manufacturing industries
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products..
14
-
+
+
O
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
O
O
+
O
+
+
+
-
O
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
4-
' +
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
0
-
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
O
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
4 - - ! -
+
_
+
+
+
_
54
58
56
68
49
39
75
72
58 64
83
72
+
+
+
+
-f.
+
4
—
+
+
—
+
+
+
4,
4,
+
+
^.
_
4 . 4 ,
4 , . +
O
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
Q
+
+
+
+
+
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising. *
All durable goods industries
40
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonf errous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products:
Metal cans barrels and drums
Hardware, structural metal and
wire products
Other fabricated metal products
+
4 - 4 -
64
50
47
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
,
_
4
64
.
61
68
75
_
O
+
—
+
+
_
*..
4
-
4
-
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material
handling* . . .
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
+
+
+
-
+
_
+
--
+
_
_
+
4 - 4 -
_
+
_
4 - 4 -
+
_
+
4 - 4 -
_
—
O
+
+
O
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
•f-
+
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. *Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
47
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNi 1965
SELECTED DIFFUSION rNDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June1
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES3 —
Continued
Electrical machinery
2,520
Electrical transmission, distr.
equipment*
508
Electrical industrial apparatus*. . . .
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
597
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment
5,607
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations . . .
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equip.*...
Other transportation equipment
.Instruments9 total
Lumber , total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods , total
2,571
2,448
2,807
2,694
2,891
2,597
2,711
2,958
2,862
562
574
590
638
649
586
604
597
289
...
...
...
...
630
602
708
609
731
523
529
695
686
5,538
5,364
6,218
4,771
5,546
5,690
6,301
6,465
5,864
...
...
...
...
...
...
D23. INDEX OF
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES?
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index..
Index: 1957-59 = 100
102. 4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
110.6
110.7
113.2
116.7
117.1
116.2
.352
.382
.413
.414
.073
.074
.075
.073
36.060 37.328 36.929 38.600
1.661
1.564
1.910
1.819
.150
.150
.152
.151
.130
.133
.143
.147
.306
.305
.304
.303
.200
.206
.194
.204
1.598 l."651 1.642
1.612
.138
.156
.162
.149
11.779 11.803 11.652 11.629
.262
.268
.264
.272
.080
.081
.083
.079
.437
..076
36.055
1.914
.152
.147
.304
.207
1.641
.174
11.733
.264
.078
Dollars
Copper scrap (ib. )
Lead scrap (lb. )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (lb.)
Zinc (lb. )
Burlap (yd . )
Cotton (lb . ) , 15 -market average
Print cloth (yd . ) 9 average
Wool tops (lb . )
Hides (lb. )
Rosin (100 lb. )
Rubber (lb . )
Tallow (lb. )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES3
(24 retail store components)
.300
.298
.324
.308
.339
.334
.056
.055
.056
.054
.055
.074
30.819 32.839 35.728 39.165 40.157 36.165
1.347 1.350 1.510 1.619 1.660
1.614
.140
.140
.141
.141
.140
.149
.116
.119
.117
.113
.126
.124
.328
.330
.327
.323
.315
.307
.182
.185
.181
.180
.196
.183
1.729 1.703
1.706
1.732 1.623
1.693
.147
.143 • .146
.146
.138
.146
12.426 12.414 12.164 11.970 11.946 12.080
.252
.246
.248
.250
.249
.266
.056
.056
.062
.059
.066
.080
Millions of dollars
All retail sales
21,392 21,777 21,773 21,935 22,266 22,900 23,317 22,805 22,901 23,467
Grocery stores
4,574 4,540 4,704 4,769 4,743 4,714
4,841
4,809 4,930 4,978
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
1,599 1,589 1,623 1,642 1,633 1,704
1,720 1,699
1,738 1,778
Department stores
1,467 1,543 1,533 1,580 1,630 1,715
1,712 1,666 1,700 1,774
Mail order houses (department store
merchandise )
192
190
200
192
205
196
208
193
197
210
Variety stores
421
420
427
443
439
456
439
438
482
454
Other general merchandise stores
Menfs and boys! wear stores
241
250
2/./
?S7
P^Q
9^£
oAt;
O^T
oo
->AQ
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
1
Average for June 14, 15, and 16.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency*
3
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
Digitized 48
for FRASER
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 7965
™2i!
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1964
1965
1964
Diffusion index title and components
1965
01
rj
b £ l P M +
f~3
<3{
CQ
J
O
01
>
O
g , Q
i
f-t
£>
S
Q
^3
S
<*1
S
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
-
-+
t - 4 +
+
+
4-
--+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
tq
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES—
Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr.
equipment*
+
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
-
+
+
-
+
-
- _ +
+
_
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
h
-
-
+
_
_
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
--
-
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations. ..
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equip.*...
Other transportation equipment. . . .
-
+
+
- -
+
O
Instruments total
.
..
Lumber} total
Furniture , total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods , total
+
_
+
+
+
+
O +
+
+
+
--
+
+
+
0-
--
-
-
4
-
...
+
+
_
-- 4
+
+
- - - +
+
+
-
+
... +
- + + + +
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-H
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
D23. INDEX OF
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES1
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
77
Industrial materials price index. . +
69 73 62 38 54 31 69 77 54 69
+ + + -+ + + + -
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
-+ +
---
+
-
Burlap (yd . )
+
'+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
Hides (ib . )
Rosin (100 Ib. )
Rubber (ib )
Tallow (Ib . )
_
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
Copper scrap (ib. ) ...
Lead scrap (ib . )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (ib . )
Zinc (ib . )
+
+
+
+ +
4 - - +
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
_f_
+ +__
+
-+ +
+
_
-
-
+
-
+
-
77 77 81 85 77 69 69 77
69 69
77
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
- + +•
+ +
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
0
+
_
_
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
H
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
83
83
+
4+
+
-
+
4-
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(24 retail store components)
Percent rising
All retail sales
52 38 65
+
-
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store
merchandise ) ,
Other general merchandise stores
Men ' s and boys ' wear stores
+
+
62 62 50 73 21 54 83
+ + + + - + +
+
+
_
+
+
- -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + _
--
+
+
--
69 83
81 60 67 77
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-+
+
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
4+
- 4 +
+
O
+
+
-
83 75
+
+
+
+ =: rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. ^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
•"•Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
3
Average for June 14, 15, and 16.
49
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE
,965
fecc/
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964-
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Apr.
May
June
Jul^r
Aug.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr,
May
Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1— Con.
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture, home furnishings stores...
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, bldg. materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger ear and other automotive
dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable -goods stores
504
502
522
509
519
531
531
513
503
523
219
701
394
707
205
223
699
381
754
220
218
735
373
765
^ 227
217
709
398
732
222
224
719
375
711
227
223
748
355
805
245
219
715
366
756
235
210
720
374
746
224
203
714
382
734
232
219
753
352
766
3,788
238
1,674
689
3,880
246
1,670
713
3,645
3,755
240
234
1,683 • 1,701
726
721
5,025
234
1,690
722
4,470
239
1,749
734
4,608
247
1,798
745
4,352
240
1,774
748
4,220
250
1,812
754
4,271
258
1,851
745
486
495
495
494
499
515
504
498
si9
503
1964
July
Aug.
Sept.
256
1965
Nov.
Oct.
Jan.
. Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
59,992
' 100
544
352
508
1,047
957
1,179
1,113
1,237
241
337
1,147
72
824
1,199
500
616
539
114
354
318
633
3,304
4,042
3,303
9,319
59,916
99
536
353
504
1,042
982
1,179
1,126
1,245
242
337
1,124
72
824
1,207
501
618
538
113
356
316
629
3,188
4,045
3,320
9,248
60,064
100
533
354
502
1,030
977
1,183
1,134
1,249
240
333
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
58,256
105
536
338
497
1,017
918
1,125
1,041
CDransportation equipment
1,141
Instruments and related products
236
Miscellaneous manufacturing indus ....
317
Food and kindred products
1,134
Tobacco manufactures
78
Textile mill products
798
Apparel and related products
1,164
Paper and allied products
494
Printing and publishing
604
Chemicals and allied products
531
Petroleum and related products
117
Rubber and plastic products
334
Leather and leather products
314
Mining
639
Contract construction
3,107
Transportation and public utilities . . 3,983
Wholesale trade
3,232
Retail trade
8,991
NOTE:
50
58,301
104
531
335
498
1,012
932
1,129
1,040
1,145
234
319
1,142
72
799
1,165
493
604
530
115
337
311
634
3,103
3,999
3,224
9,007
58,458 58,382
102
103
528
530
338
339
500
498
1,026
1,022
901
945
1,149
1,146
1,049
1,053
1,180
942
232
234
326
323
1,132
1,133
71
78
803
803
1,173
1,173
494
494
606
604
530
526
116'
.116
340
334
312
313
638
634
3,080
3,106
3,996
4,005
3,226
3,233
9,003
9,045
Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency,
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
58,878
102
532
340
500
1,038
933
1,145
1,065
1,156
235
330
1,151
80
808
1,181
496
605
530
114
337
315
639
3,162
3,997
3,246
9,065
59,334
100
533
345
503
1,044
964
1,166
1,086
1,207
238
332
1,150
74
817
1,196
495
611
536
113
343
315
633
3,235
3,939
3,270
9,177
59,676
101
540
348
503
1,046
979
1,168
1,099
1,212
240
334
1,144
73
820
1,192
498
615
537
112
350
316
635
3,281
3,997
3,288
9,244
1,122
72
823
1,210
500
619
540
112
< 355
318
627
3,217
4,059
3,333
9,288
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Directions of Change — Continued
1-month spans
f
>-3
D54.
<J
CQ
1965
>
1964
o
q f Q f H f H > >
O Q J C O C U C d f t j g
S
Q
hJ
&n
S
<J
S
1
1
1
1
1
1
1*
t - P > O f l , Q ! L j ^
o
o
<u
ro
0
3
p<
O
3
Q
ha
Pm
g
tp
P
1>
f
ftl
19 65
-pO
J
<?o
Q
>
°,
q
%
,a
4
o
d
j
qu
t
Q
1
*?
£
?H
&J
O
"¥>-,
j
?
s
<rj
& a •? a I §: s t
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4"
4
4-
Aug-May
f t -p
( D O
t O O
I
I
I
r 4 b p f
p g c u
Jul-Apr
1964
Diffusion index title and components
9-month spans
4
+
+
+
4
4
SALES OF RETAIL STORES— Con.
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV", radio stores
Lumber yards , bldg . materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
«
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Passenger car and other automotive
dealers
.
.
....
.
Tire^ battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable -goods stores
4
4
-
4
4
4
1
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4,
4
4
_(.
4 - 4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
0
*
0
4
4
4
-
_|_
_|
4
+
4
4
-f4
4
-
4
O
O
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
+
4
—
4
4
4
4
-
f
+
4
4
4
4
4
_
) - _
f
+
4
-f
_l-
+
+
4
4
—
4
4
4
-I-
4
4
4
4
4 +
H
b
ft-P >
0
8
^
&
t - P >
p
I
f
C
rQ
-
4
4
Hh
4
4
h
+
4-
^
4
4
4
4
4h
+
4
+
—
+
+
6-month spans
H
JH
f>>
^
&
o g r
1965
1964
1965
3
(
+
} , (
4
1-month spans
1964
+
^
<
o f H
^
h
jj
g
0)
jy
O
O
oJ
<l)
id
P(
I - D - ^ C Q - O S I Q ^ E ^ S ^
ft -p
f
I
QJ
03
1
^
«S
| |
>
o
O
1
feS<J!^ -3 -3^t/
Q*
o
S
1
Jd
o
cu
Q
t
q
to
>-3
I
3
£J
92
87
80
O
4
&
<y
S
I
g
?
\ 1 1
>, 4 ii
{ a i
c
2
C
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
52
73
47
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
78
O
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
.
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
88
•
f
82
O
4
—
4
4
67
4
4
4
•
4
87
55
57
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
t-
4
0
4
4
75
4
Apparel and related 'products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
4
O
0
4
4
0
-
4
—
4
"
4
4
O
O
4
4
4
—
O
—
4
O
—
4
4
Leather and leather products
—
4"
—
4
O
O
4
4
4
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
—
O
4
4
—
—
4 - —
—
4
0
+
4
4
77
4
4
4
4
4
4
4 - 4 . 4 , _ ( - - f . ^ ,
+
-lh
+
+
4
+
+
+
44
4
t4
H
4^_
4h
Hf
H
4
4
4
—
+
4
+
4
—
4 4 4
+
4
4
4
4
4
f
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
4+
+
+
+
+
4
4
4
4
+
44
4
4
-
1
-
4
-
4
—
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
+
4
4
-r
f-
+
—
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
H
4
4
+
4
+
+
4
4
4
44O
4
4
4
4
83
4 4
+
4
4
44
Food and kindred products ...
4 4
90 9C)
4
4
4
+
75
4
*
+
73
4
+
4
4
+
+
j_
+
-
4
+
4
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
51
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUN, 1965
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
July
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1— Con.
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products .
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products.
Clay, glass , and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products..
Lumber and products
.•
Furniture and miscellaneous , .
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
2,948
8,561
2,322
7,129
2,951
8,573
2,328
7,143
2,960
8,592
2,320
7,189
2,964
8,633
2,331
7,265
2,970
8,634
2,354
7,306
2,979
8,689
2,342
7,365
2,987
8,730
2,335
7,407
2,997
8,754
2,340
7,451
2,998
8,764
2,344
7,486
3,004
8,794
2,344
7,510
Index: 1957-59 = 100
132.9
133.8
134.0
131.2
135.0
138.4
139.1
140.5
140.8
141.3
131.2
133.3
132.8
134.8
132.8
134.3
13l!8
130.7
134.6
136.9
139! 6
140.6
136.9
144.9
140.5
145.0
141*0
147.5
140
148
143*6
139.7
134.3
136.4
144.1
141.1
135.3
137.4
145*0
142.9
130.9
138.6
145^4
143.8
105.3
137.6
148.2
146.3
129.2
140.2
151.4
149.2
141.4
142.7
152.7
151.7
139.7
145.3
153.8
153.4
144.4
146.9
155 '.2
155.0
143.8
145.5
126 '.4
116.1
125 '.6
114.1
127.0
109.7
126.9
110.8
127.7
109.2
132^6
111.9
13l! 8
115.6
129.2
120.5
129.8
114.0
156
156
146
145
124
131
(NA)
143.2
133.8
144 '.4
133.4
144 *.i
132.6
147.4
135.9
149.3
137.4
15o!6
139.6
154.3
140.8
154.3
142.4
155.4
142.7
156
143
121.5
134.4
103.5
123 '.5
135.1
103.1
125 '.8
135.8
100.3
127.5
137.2
102.4
129.6
139.1
103.2
132!i
13l!4
142.2 • 143.7
103.6
101.2
130*. 9
133.0
131.6
144.0
99.2
(NA)
(NA)
132*8
124.3
135*. 5
123.0
137.0
123.6
133*8
123.9
137.7
126.6
13?!5
127.7
139*0
128.5
160 ! 8 165 .'o
121.2
120.4
158.2
162.4
162.5
122.9
161.0
163.0
121.6
160.5
166 ! 9 167.8
119.0
121.5
167.2
171.1
16S>! 4
122.2
173.3
120.4
121.4
120.0
120.6
120.7
123.3
122.8
123! 6
121.0
122.2
123.2
123.5
123.0
127.2
140.7
128.5
160.8
168.8
121.9
(NA)
123.5
123.2
(NA)
133
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
135
(NA)
129
161
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
124
(NA)
(NA)
107.9
111.3
105.1
112.3
109.2
111.1
108.7
110.4
107.7
110.1
103.2
110.3
103.1
111.1
107.9
111.3
112 !2
121.7
111 '.3
119.6
115! 7
119.7
127.1
123.9
126!?
120.8
123.4
122.9
124.3
124.1
122 '.8
118.5
101.0
101.1
101.2
101.4
101.4
101.6
101.8
102.0
102.4
102.6
100.2
100.1
100.3
100.6
100.3
102.1
101.7
100.9
100.2
99.7
98.6
101.7
100.8
98.6
101.8
101.1
98.6
101.9
100.7
98.6
101.8
ion. 6
98.6
101.8
inn. a
98.3
101.8
mi .1
98.2
101.7
ini i
98.3
101.8
irn /
98.0
101.7
im %
98.0
101.8
im ^
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
132.8
Printing and publishing
124.5
Chemicals , petroleum, and rubber . . .
Chemicals and products
158.7
Petroleum products
124.6
Rubber and plastics products
155.2
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
120.0
Tobacco products
127.5
Minerals:
Coal
105.0
Crude oil and natural gas
111.1
Metal, stone, and earth minerals...
Metal mining
107.7
Stone and earth minerals
120.2
114
112
123
(NA)
(NA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
NA Not available.
•'-Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.
52
bed
7965
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
1964
6-month spans
1965
1964
Diffusion index title and components
^ I l l l l l l l l
1965
!i!i! Hi!!
. D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS— Con.
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
+
+
4-4-
0
4-
+
_
+
___
+
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
+
o
+
+
|, +
+
- - -
+
+
+
+ +
+ -
4 - 4 - 4 -
!-
+
+
+
+
+
+
|. +
+
+
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Percent rising1
All indus tr ial product ion
69
44
67
71
79
75
62
77
65
73
88
88
81
69
88
83
88
88
83 83
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electric al machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass3 and lumber . .
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
Mis cellaneous
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-I-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
>
+
•I-
+
+•
NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
'
+
-
+
+
_
+
_
+
+
+
__
+
-
_
+
+
+
+
+
- NA
+
_
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA NA
- - N A N A
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+
+ NA NA
- - N A N A
-
Nondurable goods:
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
-
4-
NA
o
+
+
—
+
—
—
+
+
NA
+
f
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
OO
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+ NA
-NA
..
..
+
Ch^TninaTs^ petroleum^ and "rubber
+
+
+
fJA_
4-
+
NA
+
-
Rubber and. plastics products
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverstses
Minerals :
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Stone and earth minerals . ,
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
4-
—
+
-
NA
NA
+
+
+
+
+
+,
NA
—
+
56
o
+
+
+
—
NA
-
+
-
-f.
-i-
+
+
.+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
56
+
61
+
+
.
+
+
+
NA NA
4,
+
+
+
+
+ NA
fijA.
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
59 6l 70 78 83
+
+
+
+
+
65
61
61
52
61
63
61
67
72
59
+
4.
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
f
o
+
+
o
o
o
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
76
+
76
+
—
+
O
+
Durable goods:
Furniture and other household durNonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
o
o
o
o
+
+
+
-
-
O
+
+
- 4 +
+
0
+
+
+
+
—
O
—
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NA Not available.
lr
rhe percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available,, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures are
rounded.
53
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUN£ ,965
fad
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1964
Diffusion index title and components
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Index: 1957-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING1— Continued
Durable goods — Continued
Nonf errous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
...
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products.
104.. 6
99.3
108.2
104.5
10^.7
96.8
100.7
108.1
105.8
99.4
108.3
104.1
104.8
96.7
100.7
108.1
107.1
99.5
108.3
'104.0
104.8
96.6
100.7
108.8
110.0
99.5
108.1
104.6
104.9
96.2
100.6
109.8
112.3
99.7
108.3
104.6
104.9
96.3
100.6
108.7
112.0
100.1
107.8
104.1
105.2
96.8
100.8
107.9
112.5
100.1
108.6
104.3
105.1
96.9
101.0
108.4
112.7
100.4
109.0
104.4
105.0
97.3
1,00.7
109.1
113.2
101.0
109.1
104.6
105.4
97.3
101.0
111.0
115.4
101.1
109.5
104.8
105.6
96.5
100.5
110.9
101.0
107.0
98.9
102.9
96.1
103.1
99.1
96.7
92.1
92.3
105.1
101.3
107.1
99.0
103.1
95.9
103.1
99.1
96.7
92.3
92.0
105.4
101.6
107.2
99.2
103.2
95.9
103.1
99.0
96.8
89.8
92.1
105.3
101.0
107.3
99.2
103.6
96.2
103.1
99.1
96.9
92.1
91.8
105.4
100.4
107.3
98.8
103.4
96.5
103.1
99.0
97.0
93.6
91.8
105.0
101.3
107.4
99.1
103.0
97.0
103.3
98.6
97.0
94.1
92.0
105.1
102.2
102.0
108.0
99.3
102.7
96.2
103.4
102.9
108.5
99.5
102.8
96.0
103.5
99.6
97.5
94.4
92.2
106.4
104.1
108.0
99.2
102.9
96.4
103.3
98.7
97.4
94.0
92.0
105.9
99.3
97.3
94.5
92.1
106.7
108.4
100.1
103.1
95.8
103.4
100.0
97.4
95.5
93.2
107.2
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.
Digitized for 54
FRASER
Basic data for components of diffusion index D19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5. Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not availfrom the Census Bureau.
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUNE 7965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1964
Diffusion index title and components
t
ft
en
$ 1
+
o
P
C
1964
1965
>
>
O
O
i
t
CD
-
U
O
i
p
C
O
£
*
CD
^
D
f
-
l
L
t
g j c d
O
f
C O C
l
D
r
pX)
^
C
>
*
co
^
Q
P
bp
P
<!
ft
<L>
m
+>
O
O
1965
>
O
S
O
(D
Q
fl
CD
f-o
f
^
H
c n O S Q » - 3 ( ^ g < :
ft -p
>
CD
O
O
CO
0
S
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING— Continued
Durable goods — Continued
Nonf errous metals
Fab~r*i catf^cJ structural rnptal "oroducts
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
4-
4-
0
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0 4 +
H
+
4-
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
0
O
O
0
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
-
+
O
+
+
0+
- O
+
+
0
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
-+
+
- T -
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
O+
-
0
+
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides-, skins, leather, and leather products.
0
O
.
O
O
+
o
+
+
-
0
O
+
H
-
+
0
+
0
-
+
+
0
4
+
_
+
+
_
+
+
_
-
+
-
-
+
+
4-
INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS1
(23 industry components)2
Percent rising
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
,
.
Publishing
Chemicals
'
Aug-Sep
Jul-Aug
D19.
ft-p>oq,a?HjH
QJ
o-
s;
41 76 13
60
4-
+
+
+
-
+
4-
4-
4-
-
+
....
O
O
r
C
<-3
Q
to
Q
+
-
4-
Electronics
-
+
+
-
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f+
+
+
+
+•
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
f
O
O
+
h-
+
+
+
+
+
D
+
+
+
+
1964
a
D
h i H >
c t i p i r
tn
£1
ro
(
>
f
(
Q
)
>-3
fe
d > j d
ft
2U
92
82
64
71
67
-
4-
f
+
+
+
-
.+
+
-
+
+
s < J
t
_
-f
.
-
+
+
_
„
_
+
-
(
+
O
1965
ft -P
>
o
ej
CD
O
O
<U
CD
CO
O
S
Q
hi
jrs; 1-3§ i-a-3 i<
>
O
g
ft
^
PH
^
Q
1-3
fc
S
<1
86
85
85
82
69
66
75
+
77
+
77
f
80
+
\+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
-
+
+
+
+
'+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
_
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
4-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
-1-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
>r
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- 4 -
-
4
-
+
4-
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+ « rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
1
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 78 components to November 1964 and on 77 components thereafter,,
+
+
9-month spans
+
4-
+
0
+
+
+
4-
Druss
*
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery compos ite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Radio and television broadcasters
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance . .-
> o g
O J c w
S
_
+
+
+
+
1965
- p
O O
0
+
_
+
+
+
+
1-month spans
1964
+
-
O
O
+
4-
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
representing an additional 23 of
55
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUN£ 196S
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
1964
Diffusion index title and components
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (16)
Newark (ll)
New York (l)
Paterson (21 )
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (8)
Providence (23)**
North Central region:
Chicago (3)
Cincinnati (IS)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5 )
Indianapolis (25 )
Kansas City (22)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (9)
South region:
Atlanta (20)
Baltimore (12 ) . .
Dallas (17)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (2 )
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (19)
9-month spans
1965
iiiiiiiin
51
53
+
4
34
__
.
_
_
+
--
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
83
24
_
57 66
62 60
f
|
^
74
p j - p ! > o c i x i f - < r - t
t>*
1O *d p* ^ 4f I
* g 4r H?f t1p
>
H
^
Q
t
-
D
f
^
S
^
l
S
'
-
a
'
-
^
«?
89 61 62 89 62 70 74 72 79
+
+
+
-
+
-H
+
+
+
f
+
H*
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
_
_
_
+
+
+
_
_
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
-
+
+
--
+
+
-
_
+
_
_
+
---
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
"+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
1965
_
+
+
+
_
32
1964
H-
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
_
+
,
+
+
+
+
+
_
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-'
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+•
+
+
....
+
-f
__
+
_
+
+
_
+
+
"H
O
—
*t"
+
' + ' 4 '
+
*
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
- = rising; o = unchangedj + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises. Data used are for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month.
^Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in April 1965.
**Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in
April 1965.
•'•Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change' is determined. See
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2. The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of
change are shown separately for • only the 26 largest areas. The size rank for each labor market area is indicated by the .number
in parentheses.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
56 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
Section THREE
charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES
Current expansion compared vriffi expansions in
earlier business cycles
SPECIFIC CYCLES
Current expansions in selected series compared with earlier
expansions in these series
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER EXPANSIONS
Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
Percent of specific peak levels
Percent change from specific trough levels
CHART
JUNE 1965
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES
I'""I I M "I
PERIOD COVERED
—
Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1954 {Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
•«
|
Percent
Reference trough dotes
July 1953 to Feb,1959< Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957to Oct. 1962 (Referencetrough: Apr. 1958}
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Percent
-Reference trough dates
I 110
17. Ratio, price
to unit labor
cost, mfg.
105
100*
95
24. New orders, mach
and equip. Indus.
19. Stock prices, 500
200
190
180
170
160
150
common stocks
140
130
120
110
100*
90
-] 80
-12 -6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
Digitized for
58FRASER
bed
CHART
JUNE 7965
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1954 (Reference trough- Oct. 1949)
Reference trough dates
July 1953 to Feb. 1959 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957to Oct. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
0
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
43. Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)
1
2
3
^c
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments
<s
5
6
7
8
Percent
49. GNP in current dollars
135
130
125
120
CM
115 ^
1
110 "»
105
100*
95
~ 85
-12 -6
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
-12 -6
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable
months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. 1Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
^Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
59
CHART
JUNE 1965
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Percent
Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• Reference trough dates
July 1953to Feb. 1959(Referencetrough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957toOct. 1962 (Referencetrough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
62. Labor cost
Percent
115
per unit of output, mfg.
110
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
105 -
100*
95
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
67. Bank rates on
140
short-term business loans
135
130
125
120
115
o-"
no
105
100*
\/
95
90
-12
-6
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
-12
-6
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used Scale L-l is a losarithmir srile with i ™HO
y
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. ^Latest data anticipated.
'
*Reference peak level,
ifr Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
Digitized for60
FRASER
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
<
bed
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JUNE 7965
CHART
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLES
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
Comparisons cover a 60-month period beginning
with specific trough dates corresponding to
the reference troughs of1949
1958
1954
1961
•*
Specific trough dates
23. Industrial
Percent
200
190
180
170
160
materials prices
-Specific trough dates
17. Ratio, price to
150
unit labor cost, mfg.
140
-, 115
130
120
110
110
100
105
24. New orders,mach.
and equip, indus.
100"
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
19. Stock prices/
500 common stocks
210
200
190
180
170
160 ^
150 ^
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 + 3 0 + 3 6 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs
160
150
140 S
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100*
100*
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs
See appendix B for specific dates. Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 8, Vari
scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale witr> 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
*Specific trough level.
61
CHART
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JUNE 1965
bed
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
-Specific trough dates
Comparisons cover a 60-month period beginning
with specific trough dates corresponding to
the reference troughs of-
1958
1961
.1949
1954
M I N I I I 1 1 I 1 I! I I I M I I I I I I II I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I !! M I I I I I I I I
"
Percent
Specific trough dates
-i 120
43. Unemployment rate, total
(Percent unemployed, inverted)
115
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments
110 ^
105
J
100*
Percent
150
145
140
47.
150
145
140
Industrial production
49
135
GNP in current dollars
135
130
-.-."*
125 ^
125 2
120 H
120 ]
115
115
110
110
105
105
100*
100*
to
0
+6
+12 +18
130
+24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30
+36 +42 +48
+54 +60
Months f r o m s p e c i f i c troughs
See appendix B for specific dates. Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 8. Various
scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
*Specific trough level.
62
1
Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of specific trough levels.
bed
JUN£ 7965
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
CHART
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLES—Continued
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
Comparisons cover a 60-month period beginning
with specific trough dates corresponding to
the reference troughs of-.1949
.1954
-Specific trough dotes
1958
.1961
125
Percent
-Specific trough dates
62. Labor cost per
unit of output, mfg.
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
160
120
115
150
110
130
120
110
105
100
64. Book value of
mfrs.' inventories
150
145
140
67. Bank rates on short-term
140
business loans
135
135
130
130
125
125 °
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100s*
100*
ill
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30
+36 +42 +48
Months from specific troughs
+54 +60
0
+6
+12 + 1 8 + 2 4 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs
See appendix B for specific dates. Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 8
scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
*Specific trough level. »fLatest data anticipated.
Various
63
TABLE
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bed
JUNE 7965
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough1
Perc ent of re ference peak prior to reference expansion beg inning in
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
—
July
1921
July
1924
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers} manufacturing
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
( inverted )
6. New orders, durable goods
industries
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial, floor space^
(NA)
51
50
102 8
102 7
101 5
98 0
80 1
99 2
77 6
107 0
109 1
174 0
73 7
51.3
76 5
44 1
95 B
34.1
47.1
50
169 o
93 3
68 3
73 3
184 8
80 0
42 3
40.5
19 4
51
51
137 9
117.5
121 . 7
118.8
126.5
118.0
124.1
113.0
291 8
158.3
70.9
59.3
25.6
17.6
105.0
134.9
199.?
251.5
50
163.0
117.5
111 4
123.1
499 4
51.1
17 9
125.5
54.3
50
107.4
128.1
161.2
117.0
41 5
63.3
98.5
100.0
86.1
51
4S
65.1
161.9
45.1
110.2
58.9
97.4
92.9
73.3
202 3
195.3
(NA)
66.2
43 6
(NA)
110.2
107.7
102.0
51
51
51
104.7
161.7
112 5
100.6
117.4
90 8
101.8
216.1
105 7
93.8
166.5
75 5
(NA)
52.0
95 9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
53.4
108 8
63.2
46 2
249.1
79 6
134.7
51
139 3
121 0
132 8
126 5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
51
116 4
123 6
133 4
118 4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
41. Employees in nonagri. establish. . . . 51
43. Unemployment3 rate (percent), total
(inverted)
51
47. Industrial production
51
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
A8
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
48
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y.
51
52 . Personal income
51
54. Sales of retail stores
51
55. Wholesale prices except farm
products and foods
51
110.4
105.0
102.9
109.5
128.6-
95.9
70.0
96.5
86.9
+0.6
-1 1
108 0
134.8
127 4
-1.1
124 6
i 35 A
122 4
171 4
i A*; ^
120 4
147.2
128 5
128 1
116 4
lp^ i
115 6
139.2
124 8
117 0
-3 6
106 3
(NA)
128 6
128 7
-11 5
105 0
82 8
QQ /
141.4
153.5
1 "V, 1
171 1
67.4
87 Q
121 0
122 9
127 0
101 1
101 3
110 0
1 OS 7
nno
43
57
135 0
143 5
97 9
105 4
128 '2
Q7 Q
11 5 7
120 6
(NA)
51
96 8
100 9
108 8
116 9
50
50
117 9
150 0
107 6
136 8
m
150 0
i c^i c
266 5
10^ 1
/g
Q? Q
1 0? 7
11? Q
1/0 /
13. New "business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures
(inverted)
16 , Corporate profits after taxes (Q),.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. New building permits,- private
housing
(NA)
23.6
72 0
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1 91 P
(NA)
&*> L
(NA)
n3p
(NA)
11? 3
(NA)
(NA}
^IMK;
75 $
Q/ /
m
65.2
95 A
72 1
75 7
132.6
120 6
108 8
118 8
q; e
70 -i
8A /
AA /
73 6
36 9
on Q
108 1
55 6
78 7
-| pG o
68 1
126 4
Q1 7
80 3
&7 3
7/ /
~\ K.n c
7
m
1 9A Q
(wa^
\WA;
( fj/O
(NA}
VWA;
(NA}
(WA^
VWA^
c-3 n
QQ
/
7V • 4
i no n
(NA)
o
")1Q /
110.1
(NA)
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant
and equipment (Q);
a . Actual
...»
b. Anticipated4.
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing ..*......*
64. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)
e;
(NA)
(NA}
VIM A;
(NA)
a-i £
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19. 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for
the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series (series 16,
49, 50, 61, and 67). For. series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, .and 51), the average of the 3
months centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions
except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated
in the first column. S©e appendix A for the reference peak dates.
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for
which data are available. Measures for shorter time
2
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS.
Except
for 1961, changes are computed in a4 3-term mov3
ing average of,the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
used for all other entries.
64
JUNE
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough1
Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning in—
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
(inverted)
6. New orders, durable goods
industries
7. Private jionf arm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial, floor space2
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures
(inverted)
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)..
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. New building permits, private
housing
51
50
+4.3
-5.0
50
+20.0
+0.3
+11.4
+61.7
+3.2
+4.9
0.0
-12.6
+22.7
+94.8
+25.4
-22.0
-39.7
+4.8
+58.8
+309.8
+272.7
+116.7
-40.3
+30.7
(NA)
+9.4
+5.5
51
51
+47.3
+17.4
+37.9
+22.4
+41.2
+0.8
+43.3
-19.3
+385.5
+68.5
+269.0
+292.9
-74.3
-83.1
-6.3
+36.3
+182.2
+156.8
50
•+75.0
+49.4
+15.0
+42.6
(NA)
+327.0
-79.4
+80.7
+99.3
50
+15.6
+34.1
+36.5
+12.0
-51.8
-20.1
-5.1
+35.1
+18.9
51
48
-33.5
+87.7
-40.1
+45.6
-38.2
+14.4
-20.8
-6.3
+175.0
(NA)
(NA)
-52.7
(NA)
+22.2
+100.0
+39.8
51
51
51
+6.8
+43.6
+17.9
+6.3
+34.6
+4.4
+3.7
+70.8
+5.7
-5.0
+60.2
+0.5
(NA)
-15.0
+60.8
(NA)
+151.0
+131.1
(NA)
-51.8
-52.7
(NA)
+139.2
-5.2
(NA)
+82.1
+72.1
51
+46.9
+37.1
+42.5
+44.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
51
+20.0
+21.5
+11.5
-26.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
51
+12.5
+9.3
+6.6
+15.4
+43.5
+40.2
-27.1
+11.0
+26.2
51
51
48
48
51
51
51
+2.3
+36.4
+29.4
+22.6
+43.8
+27.3
+30.6
+1.9
+35.5
+26.6
+20.2
+43.6
+25.2
+18.9
-0.1
+16.9
+23.5
+11.3
+32.7
+27.7
+21.8
+3.Q
+36.1
+40.5
+24.2
+47.3
+40.1
+22.9
+13.9
(NA)
+37.8
+20.0
+19.8
+36.9
+20.5
+81.3
(NA)
-30.5
-24.4
-7.7
-40.0
-28.0
-24.3
+8.8
+64.4
+33.3
+32.0
+42.0
+45.0
+26.7
51
+1.2
48
57
+44.8
+ 53.9
+21.9
+21.9
51
-5.2
50
50
48
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establish
43. Unemployment3 rate (percent), total
(inverted)
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (ft)
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y.
52. Personal income
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm
products and foods
(MA)
+150.9
+87.7
(NA)
+83.9
+94.4
+55.8
+117.7
+64.3
+38.0
+76.6
+78.6
(NA)
+14.4
+17.3
+30.4
-22.5
-5.4
+5.0
+10.3
+21.1
+60.2
+ 50.7
(NA)
(NA)
+329.1
+359.0
-58.0
-76.2
+54.9
+83.8
+61.9
-5.0
+6.6
+21.5
+25.0
-18.5
-15.1
-17.3
+19.2
+45.1
+11.7
+35.7
+19.3
+45.1
+64.4
+112.8
+10.6
+66.4
+76.7
+165.4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.0
+20.1
+18.3
+41.9
(NA)
-31.0
+3.3
+16.3
-24.3
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant
and equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b. Anticipated4
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
64. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)
+98.3
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "I" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19. 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for
the reference trough month. Similar^, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series (series
16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of
the 3 months centered on the reference trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month
indicated in the first column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates.
•NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for
which data are available. Measures for snorter time
2
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a4 3-term mov3
ijog average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels.
Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
used for all other entries.
65
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JUNE ,965
COMPARISONS FROM SPECIFIC PEAK AND TROUGH LEVELS AND SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
specific
trough1
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,rafg ,
13. New business incorporations .-,
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
.,..,.
23 , Industrial materials prices
24 . New orders , machinery and equipment indus . .
29, New building permits, private housing
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41, Employees in nonagri. establishments
43, Unemploy. rate (percent), total (inverted)2.
47 . Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
53, Labor income in mining, mfg., construction.
54 . Sales of retail stores
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Bus, expend., new plant and equip. (Q):
a . Actual
b . Anticipated3
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
64. Book value of mf rs . ' inventories
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q)
53
51
51
55
53
54
53
101.2 *99.0 *99.8 (NSC)
78.0
• 100.1 *138.1 (NSC)
101.8 *101.0 *90.3 *107.2
149.4 *122.5 *186.3 *155.6
110.6 *92.9 *65.1 *135.1
136.7
*99.2 *106.2 *211.6
90.0
*96.5 *90.4 *158.1
*105.4 mi. 7
VL.2 *+1.0
"109 . 2 -135.1
•a 21. 6 138.7
niO.l 125.5
ni6.1 -H7.3
"117.7 (NSC)
51
48
51
48
48
53
49
110.1
+0.3
126.5
128.7
120.4
124.3
126.5
45
54
41
46
39
135.0
*96.2 *131.0
143.5
*96.2 #131 . 0
94.8 *97.2 mo. 9
117,2 *104.2 ni7.2
92.7 niO.5 *129.0
*102.7
*-!.!
*109.0
"112.4
*107.6
*108.3
*109.4
129.5
*129.5
115.6
n51.0
136,1
104.4
48.6
(NA)
52.3
104.7
(NA)
(NA)
75.6 *100.0
•-70.4 mo. 5
(NA)
(NA)
56.2 (NSC)
84.2 *76.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
128,0
+10.8
167.6
157.3
(NA)
230.6
120.5
95.9
(NA)
96.3
82.8
99.0
*89.4
93.8
(MA)
(NA)
127.9
141.3
(NA)
61.9 *118.6 *108.1
79.7 nia.6 *108.1
(NSC) (NSC) (NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
95.1
!!
»82.9 *ii9.7 ' 91.0
*97.8
no6.8
(NA)
212.1
noo.8
(NA)
(NA)
no 5. 6 ••96.6
(MA)
(NA)
ni6.2 noa.2
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)
(NA)
*86.3
(NA)
«99.2
*71.3
(NA)
(NA)
«91.3
(NA)
*112.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
105.9
*62.5
tf
62.5
*74.8
(NA)
*81.0
Percent change from specific trough .corresponding to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers, mfg.
13, New "business Incorporations
17. Ratio, price to ynit labor cost index
19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
24 . New orders , machinery and equipment indus . .
29, New building permits, private housing
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
43. Unemploy. rate (percent), total (inverted)2.
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50 . GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction.
54. Sales of retail stores
53
51
51
55
53
54
53
+7.3
+17.1
+6.8
+66.2
+21.0
+48.0
+20.8
*+5.2
*+51.7
*+9.4
*+48.1
*+17.4
*+36.7
*+56.3
51
48
51
48
48
53
49
+12.5
+2.5
-t-36.4
+29.4
+22.6
+30.4
+ 31.8
*+7.3
*+2.6
*+27.2
*+l6.4
*+12.5
*+17.6
*+13.7
*+9.1 *+17.8 +43.5 +40.2 *+ll,5 #+12.0
(NA)
(MA)
*+2.4 *+5.3 +19.8 *+U.4
*+21.3 *+50.0 +U7.9 +106.4- *+24.9 *+31.7
(NSC)
*+24.9 +43.8 +87.7 +64.3 (NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)
-+14. 3 +28.6
+46.9 (NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
*+25.6 *+68.5 +215-4- *+151.4
*+23.7 (NSC)
+49.3 +82. B (NSC) (NSC)
45
54
41
46
39
+46.3
+55.5
-1.3
+19.9
+0.2
*+22.6
*+22.6
*+4.9
*+10.8
*+28.5
(NA) +276.9 *+41 . 2
*+47.2 +61.8
(MA) +385.5 *+41.2
*+47.2 *+6l.8
*+1.7.4 +24.2 + 59.2 +28. 2 (NSC)
(NA)
*+26.6 -+70 . 0 +77.2 +68.7
*+37.0 +43.5
(NA)
*+11.4 *+26.6
*+4.3
(NSC)
*+6.8
*+109.6
-"-+24.7
*+89.9
*+54.9
*+6.5 +25.1 +11.7 *+4. 5 *+7.9
+31.9
-39.1 *+12.8 -"+20.5 tt+42.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-+15. 2
(NA)
-4.2 +268.8 (NSC) +H9.1
*+87.4
-+100.3 +61.9 +126.3 *+7.3 •-+36.7
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
*+180.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
*+123.8
(NA)
'"+15.4
*+2'3.6
(NA)
*H-4.6.2
!
• +7^.0
(NA)
(NA)
"+32.6
(NA)
*t-66.1
+59.2
(NA)
(NA)
+ 24.1
NBER LAGGING 'INDICATORS
61 . Bus . expend . , new plant and equip . ( Q) :
a. 'Actual
b. Anticipated3
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
64 . Book value of mf rs .! inventories
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q)
*+5/*.9 'M102.9
*+54.9 *-*-102.9
(NSC) *+22.2
(NA)
(NA)
--+6.0
^+7.3
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 53, 54, 62,
and 64), the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month after specific trough) is divided by the value for the specific peak or trough month. Similarly, the specific peak or trough quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series
(series 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered
on the specific peak or trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
-^Indicates that a specific peak had been
passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the month indicated in the first column. The figure shown
represents the change to the specific peak, and the period covered is shorter than that of the current expansion. See appendix
B for specific peak dates.
1
Based on period of the most recent specific expansion for each series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough to the
latest month shown in table 2. The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by an asterisk (*).
Percent measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Specific trough dates
2
3
are shown in appendix B.
Measures are differences from the specific peak or trough levels.
Anticipated expenditures
(4th quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are used for all
other entries.
66
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES:
1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
HusineSS CVCle reference dates
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867.
December 1870
March 1879
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Cycle
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
June 1857 ...
October 1860
April 1865
. ..June 1869
October 1873
March 1882
(X)
18
8
32
18
65
30
22
46
18
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
(X)
40
54
50
52
101
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
.December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
. .January 1910 .
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43'
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
X
49
2
54
3
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
4
46
5
48
6
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
46
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
5
X
3
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
6
4
2
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
67
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
19S4
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13. New business incorporations .................
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks . . „
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29 New building permits private housing
Dec. '60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 July '24 Mar. '21
Sep. '39 Dec. '34 Dec. '26 June '24 Jan. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Apr. '38 June '32
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
May '61 June
Jan. '61 Nov.
Feb. '61 Apr.
Oct. '60 Dec.
Dec . ' 60Apr.
Nov. '60 Feb.
Dee. '60 Feb.
(NSC) Aug.
'58
(NSC) Feb.
'57
'58 Dec. '53 May
'57 Sep. «53 June
'58 Feb. '54 June
'58 Mar, '54 Apr.
'58 Sep. '53 Jan.
Feb. '61 May
May '61 July
Feb. '61 Apr.
IstQ '61 IstQ
IstQ '61 IstQ
(NSC) Feb.
Dec. '60 Apr.
Apr. '61 Mar.
'58 Aug.
'58 Sep.
'58 Apr.
'58 2ndQ
'58 2ndQ
'58 Mar.
'58 Aug.
'58 Jan.
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
Oct. '49 June
Oct. '49 June
Oct. '49 May
2ndQ '49 2ndQ
2ndQ '49 IstQ
Oct. '49 May
Oct. '49 June
(NSC) May
IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ
'55
'55
'54
'55
4thQ
Aug.
Jan.
IstQ
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47 . Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
'38 Mar.
'38 May
'38 July
'38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
'33
IstQ
July
May
3rdQ
'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of 'output,
manufacturing. Dec.
June
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q), 4thQ
'61 3rdQ
'61 May
'61 Aug.
'61 2ndQ
'58
'59
'58
'58
'49
'50
'50
'50
3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ
'38
'40
'39
'40
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13 . New business incorporations
*
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23 . Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
Apr. '59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53
June
Apr.
May
July
Nov.
July
Nov.
(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Feb. '51 Jan.
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
July '50 Oct.
'60
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'5B
Mar.
Feb.
Dec.
July
Dee.
Nov.
Feb.
»56
'56
'55
'56
'55
»56
'55
Apr. '60
Fab. '60
Jan. '60
2ndQ '60
2ndQ, '60
(NSC)
May '60
Apr. '60
Mar.
Mar.
Feb.
3rdQ
3rdQ
Aug.
July
Aug.
'57 June
'57 July
'57 July
'57 2ndQ
'57 2ndQ
'57 Oct.
'57 July
'57 Mar.
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
3rdQ
Apr.
Sep.
4thQ
'57 3rdQ
'58 Jan.
'57 Sep.
'57 4thQ
'53 4thQ
'54 May
'53 Jan.
'53 2ndQ
'46 July '37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22
'46 Dec, '36 Jan. '29 Oct. '25 Apr. '23
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NSC) Mar. '23
'48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29 Nov. '25 Mar. '23
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'47
(NA)
(NA)
Dec. '19
Dec. '19
(NA)
July '19
Apr. '20
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47 . Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
Sep. '48 July
Jan. '48 July
July '48 May
4thQ '48 3rdQ
4thQ '48 3rdQ
Oct. '48 June
Sep. '48 May
(NSC) Sep.
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC) July '20
(NSC)
Sep. '29
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing, Feb.
Book value of manufacturers ' inventories
Sep.
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'60
'61
'60
'59
'48 3rdQ
'49 Dec.
'49 Oct.
'49 3rdQ
'37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Nov. '20
'37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20
NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
68
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes
i/c
CI
Monthly series
I
C
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
'
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing.
2 . Accession rate , manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
3, Layoff rate, manufacturing
'4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
. . ..
6. New orders , durable goods industries
0.42
4.52
1.82 1.29
8.52
9.35
17.76 17.12
0.21
1.63
1.18
3.88
3.99
2.00
2.77
1.09
2.20
4.29
2
3
2
3
5
0.95
.91
.59
.70
.89
2.15
2.17
2.27
2.17
1.63
1.65 10.58
1.74 9,93
1.63
9.77
1.74 8.18
1.44 6.35
4.06
4.42
5.25
5.96
3.08
4.62
3.25
2.49
1.61
1.86
2.02
2
3
.86
.59
1.72
1.67
1.51
1.54
9.77
8.33
3.94
4.56
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
10 . Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
7. Private nonf arm housing starts
29. New building permits, private housing
38. Index of net business formation
..
13 . New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures
15. Large business failures
4.47 4.01
9.66 9.43
4.93 4.61
7.34 7.31
3.39
3.82
.78
'1.00
2.68 2.36
16.86 16.36
13.09 12. 81'
1.61
1.67
1.47
1.14
1.48
.65
1.10
2.52
2.11
2.49
5.65
3.14
6.41
2.29
1.19
2.15
6.49
6.07
3
6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6
.84
C1)
.82
C1)
.68
.66
.77
C1)
C1)
1.76
1.70
1.82
1.53
1.89
2.50
2.10
1.48
1.53
1.51
1.54
1.59
1.53
1.53
1.60
1.70
1.32
1.37
12.50
6.63
10.75
6.13
14.38
14.60
6.30
5.77
9.77
3.62
3.03
3.71
2.32
3.32
4.90
3.02
2.26
5.30
0.49
4.80
5.29
3.79
.69
2.65
.56
1.86
.33
1.67
1.70
1.11
2
2
.94
.68
2.23
2.35
1.74 7.47
1.67 12.70
3.60
3.94
6.81
5.29
3.10
1.71
3
.66
2.54
1.76 10.58
4.63
5.81
5.32
2.14
2.49
3
.76
1.87
1.63
12.70
3.91
7.68
1.32
5.54
1.04
4.73
.74
1.17
1.41
2
2
.79
.95
3.53
2.44
2.12 9.77
2.05 11.55
4.20
4.06
.30
.36
3,94
5.63
4.82
3.11
.15
.29
3.08
4.16
2.56
1.88
.24
.19
2.29
2.74
3.56
2.35
.63
1.53
1.34
1.52
.72
.80
1
2
2
2
1
1
.63
.79
.71
.86
.72
.80
5.15
1.96
2.75
2.88
3.74
3.47
1.96
1.54
1.79
1.89
2.12
1.60
15.44
15.89
11.00
11.00
9.07
9.62
5.15
3.64
3.84
4.80
3.74
3.47
1.09
47 Industrial production
1.48
51. Bank debits , all SMSA's except New York
.49
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, construction... .81
.78
54 Sales of retail stores
55 Wholesale prices except farm products and foods,..... .17
.58
1.44
.27
.53
.63
.10
.79
.60
.41
.61
.44.13
.73
2.40
.66
.87
1.43
.77
1
3
1
1
2
1
.73
.54
.66
.87
.85
.77
3,53
1.69
3.43
3.43
2.53
3.53
2.05
1.53
1.84
1.90
1.80
2.65
9.77
18.14
18.14
11.55
9.54
11.55
3.53
4.31
3.43
3.43
3.62
3.53
.65
.54
.48
.19
.36
.49
1.33
.39
2
1
.72
.39
2.27
8.33
1.55
2.02
9.07
13.89
4.34
8.33
.80
.83
.54
.17
.49
.78
1.10
.22
2
1
.53 2.40
.22 11.45
5.17
1.42 15.63
2.29 18.00 11.45
3.57
3.73
4.10 4.02
26.87 26.37
15.12 14.78
26.25 26.21
.61
.74
4.09
2.70
6.12
5.85
5.43
6.45
5.47
4.28
6
6
6
6
6
C1)
C1)
C1)
C11)
t)
1.45
1.59
1.51
1.47
1.58
1.38
1.43
1,46
1.43
1.47
9.15
8.50
5.93
6.61
5.95
2.53
3.26
2.27
2.48
2.86
23.00 23.02
5.69
7.33
1.80 1.39
1.68 1.50
2.17
2.57
.27
.58
3.60
4.71
1.04
.58
1.12
.52
6.39
1.21
1.34
2.59
1.94
.52
6
2
2
4
3
1
C1)
.81
.95
.93
.86
.52
1.51
2.47
2.72
2.26
2.63
9.13
1.45 5.56
2.00
9.71
2.13 10.46
1.79 8.67
1.90 8.56
2.63 17.13
2.53
3.55
3.75
4.90
3.55
9.13
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .......
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories .. ..
........... .
26. Buying policy production materials, commitments 60
days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries
23, Industrial materials prices
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments
42 . Total nonagricultural employment
43 Unemployment rate , total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
45 Average weekly insured unemployment, State
46. Help— wanted advertising
»
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62 Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
64 Book value of manufacturers 1' inventories
65. Book value of manufacturers inventories of finished
goods
66 Consumer installment debt
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
$2
53.
90
91.
92
Federal cash payments to public
Federal cash receipts from public
Defense Department obligations, procurement
Defense Department obligations, total
Military contract awards in U.S...
99, New orders, defense products
1~\ 4
Tr^a^ury hi 11 rate
t
^ . T T - -, T ,
115 Treasury bond yields
116 . Corporate bond yields
117 Municipal bond yields
118. Mortgage yields
T
» . ,- f
T
t
See footnotes at end of table.
69
Appendix C-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
i/o
Monthly series
CI
I
C
1/5
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE—Con.
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 . General imports
81. Consumer prices
94. Construction contracts , value
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
2.75
2.97
6.00
3.59
5.95
4.59
3.61
.15
7.03
1.51
4.39
3.47
.10
6.69
.57
1.11
.97
.13
1.69
1.34
3.95
3.58
.77
3.96
.43
4
4
1
5
1
0.96
.85
.77
.84
.43
1.77
1.59
6.00
1.52
5.95
1.66
1.51
2.25
1.45
1.87
7.06
7.53
25.20
7.88
13.89
.90
1.14
.86
1.42
1.36
1.44
1.70
.77
1.09
.83
1.18
1.20
1.41
1.07
.52
.47
.50
.69
.68
.74
1.23
1.48
2.32
1.66
1.71
1.76
1.91
.87
2
3
2
2
2
3
1
.72
.81
.89
.93
.89
.64
.87
3.47
2.40
3.47
2.86
3.21
2.70
2.91
2.12
1.87
2.40
2.14
2.08
1.82
1.52
15.63 8.27
5.59
8.93
31.25 7.75
18.00
5.43
25.00 11.27
31.00 6.42
17.86 2.91
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada
122. United Kingdom
121 . OEGD European countries
125. West Germany
126 . France
127. Italy
128. Japan
Quarterly series
CI
I
C
I/O
QCD
I/O
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.
New capital appropriations, manufacturing
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all
industries
11.35
6.28
6.76
7.11
4.03
4.80
7.31
4.71
4.17
0.97
.86
1.15
1
1
2
0.97
.86
.56
2.42
2.47
2.47
1.48
1.35
1.40
5.11
5.25
5.25
2.42
2.47
2.73
5.10
3.76
3.78
.99
1
.99
3.23
1.40
5.25
3.23
1.29
1.54
1.30
.49
.50
.38
1.07
1.33
1.20
.46
.38
.31
1
1
1
.46
.38
.31
3.82
4.67
6.00
1.45
1.35
1.45
4.67
6.00
8.40
3.82
4.67
6.00
3.15
.90
2.31
1.26
.49
1.57
2.64
.72
2.00
.48
.68
.79
1
1
1
.48
.68
.79
4.67
3.15
2.47
1.83
1.41
1.56
4.67
5.86
4.67
4.67
3.15
2.47
11.61
4.32
6.57
8.33
2.86
1.47
7.58
2.90
6.15
1.10
.99
.24
2
1
1
.43
.99
,24
2.59
2.30
3.21
1.33
1.48
1.61
4.00
4.60
7.50
4.30
2.30
3.21
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
49. GNP in current dollars
57 . Final sales
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67 . Bank rates on short-term business loans
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
110 . Total private borrowing
Ill . Corporate gross s avings
97. BaclcLog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
NOTE: For most series, measures are computed for a period
of at least 10 years. Figures for series 7, 86, 87, and 116
are based on shorter periods.
•'•Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
Ihe following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MGD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb,Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.4yiar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally
Digitized for70
FRASER
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series.
It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
"1/5" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large" values) of the seasonally adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for l^month sipans and
for spans of the period of MOD. When MCD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MOD period.
For quarterly series, I/O is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration , of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MOD curve. The MOD
curve is a moving average (with the number of
MOD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
terms equal to
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MOD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.67 for the series on new
orders, durable goods industries (series 6). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.54 for I and 8.33 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.56 for the MOD moving average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MOD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 4 to 5 months. The increase in the
ADR from 1.67 for CI to 4.56 for the MOD moving average indicates that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MOD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical-trend
movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in
the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERlES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes
i/c
Unit of
measure
Monthly series
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
CI
I
C
Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
3.50
0.85
3.37
20. Change in book value of manufacturers
inventories of materials, supplies
1.45
do
1.52
.37
.16
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. Bil. dol...
.49
.46
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
Ann. rate,
4.31
.82
bil. dol.. 4.39
93 . Free reserves
Mil. dol. . .104.23 82.19 52.77
Ann. rate,
85 . Change in money supply
2.81
percent . . . 2.78
.42
98. Change in money supply and time deposits.
do
.48
2.52
2.52
112 . Change in business loans
Ann. rate,
.26
bil. dol.. 1.22
1.19
do
.85
.75
113. Change in consumer installment debt
.34
88. Merchandise trade balance
Mil. dol... 58.96 56.60 17.50
1
T/c
MCD1
for
MCD
span
Unit of
measure
CI
I
C
CI
I
C
MCD
3.96
4
0.94
1.47
1.44
7.94
3.22
3.93
2.93
5
4
.92
.79
1.64
1.79
1.46
1.58
6.05
7.44
3.15
3.45
5.27
1.56
5
2
.91
.95
1.51
2.03
1.40 7.00
1.52 10.31
2.61
3.17
6.75
5.29
11
7
.82
.97
1.45
1.51
1.48
1.45
6.18
6.80
3.32
2.60
4.51
2.19
3.23
5
3
3
.93
.78
.93
1.47
1.71
1.82
1.47
1.55
1.61
6.22
9.00
11.30
2.48
3.24
2.64
i/c
Quarterly series
Average duration of run
(ADR)
1/5
QCD
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
1.55
1.47
1.24
4.80
5.22
3.13
2.29
2.61
2.71
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
, Ann. rate,
1.25
bil. dol.. 1.78
1.04
do
1.10
2.12
95. Balance, Fed. income and product account.
1.52
89. U.S. balance of payments...
., Mil. dol... 266.91 222.40 125.72
NOTE: For most series, measures are computed for a period
of at least 10 years. Figures for series 88 and 112 are based
on shorter periods.
1
Where MCD is larger than "6", a 6-term moving average is
used as the MCD curve.
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarter-
.83
.72
1.77
1
1
2
.83
.72
.77
2.29
2.61
1.68
to-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is_ expressed in
the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the sajne
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component,which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown
part 1.
above have the same meaning as in
7T
Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES {MAY 1964 TO JUNE 1965)
19e>5
19&
q _„ £ _ „
oeries
May June July -Aug. Sept. Oct.
4. Temporary layoff, all industries..... 78.4 74.4
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
82.3 83.8
13. New business incorporations1
103.0 105.9
14. Liabilities of business failures.. .. 95.4 106.1
15 . Large business failures
99.5
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. 101.0
2
18 . Profits per dollar of s ales , mfg . . .106.3
.
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries1. 108.7
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
106.8
107.5 140.0
87.0
90.2
Nov.
89.0
Dec.
94.6
Jan.
Feb.
157.0 105.5
Mar. Apr.
91.6 87.4
May June
77.6 73.8
105.2 84.0 77.4 88.7 104.5 137.4 144.9 107.2 92.7 91.8 82.3 83.8
107.3 90.5 93.1 99.4 82.4 101.8 105.2 91.9 115.6 107.3 103.1 105.8
100.4 104 6 96 6 95 7 107 5 77.7 105 6 104 1 100.2 104.7 95.7 106.6
102.6 86.1
101.7 96.3
95.7 91.2 93.8 94.8 86.0 112.9 114.1 112.0 113.3 99.5 102.3
98.1 99.5 100.0 100.4 101.1 101.7
99.1 101.9 103.1 101.1 97.8
96.9
106.3
95.2
101.4
80.1 76.9 93.1 104.4 108.2 111.1
110.1 105.0 110.5 123.7 111.6 92.5 83.6
98.9
94.8
92.9
92.9
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods
100.0 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.8
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg... 98.9 98.0 103.8 100.8 98.2
81. Consumer prices
99.7 99.9 100.2 100.0 100 1
32. Federal cash payments to public1
96.5 106.9 100.3 112.0 96.1
1
83. Federal cash receipts from public ... 117.1 150.9 50.0 113.4 124.7
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
83.0 197.5
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total.,;.. 88.4 143.4
92. Military contract awards in U.S
90.0 175.2
112 . Change in business loans5
100.0 99.6
128. Japan, industrial production index... 100.1 99.8
101.4
114.0
72.6
93.9
99.9
79.6 99.1
92 3 99 6
87.5 103.5
98 5 99 3
96.5 99.3
90.3
93.1
95.1
104.9 108.6 108.2 113.4 107.1 99.0
100.0
97.2
100 1
104.4
45.4
100.0
99.0
100 1
99.8
101.8
100.1 100.2 100.0 99.9
102.4 102.3 100.5 99.8
99.9 99.9 99.9
99.9
103.1 89.6 94.4 97.6
107.8 67.7 113.0 126.8
99.9
99.3
99.8
100.4
81.2
100.0 99.9
98.9 98.0
99.7 99.9
98.4 104.0
117.5 152.3
97.9
105 8
101.1
99 9
99.6
96.0
91 5
79 4
101 2
99.2
86.3 97.5
93.3
91.8
92 8 88 6
92.1 100.6 88.9
102 0 100 6 99 7
94.0 102.1
102.1
87.9
95.8
84.7
100 3
99.5
83.9
88 6
90.2
100 0
101.1
78.6
96.3
125.1
100.3
108.1
197.9
143 1
171.9
99 6
99.8
MOTE: Those data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
•'•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors.
3
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
72FRASER
Digitized for
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions :
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-July
1923-July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar
1937- June
1921
1924
1927
1933
1938
51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Sales
of retail Change
debits, sonal
stores
income
in rate, Rate at
all
peak to
peak
SMSA's
trough
except
New York
47. Index 50. GNP
of indus- in 1954
trial
dollars
produc(Q)1
tion
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-6.2
0.0
0.0
-47.4
-18.5
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
(NA)
-1.4
-3.0
-3.8
-1.8
-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.5
-1.0
-+.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
+1.0
+9.9
0.0
-0.7
-1.6
-1.9
+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.7
-5.6
-16.0
-2.4
-2.9
-3.1
-2.2
-1.2
-6.5
-3.6
-16.0
-8.8
-2.3
-2.4
-2.9
-2.2
-3.6
-0.8
-2,3
-0.2
-1.8
-1.2
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
; . . . . -10.4
Feb. 1945 -Oct. 19454
Nov. 1948-Oct . 19495
July 1953-Aug. 1954
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb . 1961
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.
43. Unemployment rate, total
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
1921-May
1924-Oct.
1927-Aug.
1933-May
1938-Feb.
1923
1926
1929
19374
1945 .
Oct. 1945-Nov. 1948
Oct. 1949-July 19535
Aug. 1954-July 1957
Apr. 1958-May 1960
Median: 6
All expans ions
Excluding wartime expansions ... ...............
4 expansions since 1945...
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index 50. GNP
of indus- In 1954
dollars
trial
produc(Q)1
tion
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
2
4.0
2
3.2
2
1.9
3
2
0.0
11.2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1,1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.9
+3.4
3.5
7.2
+3.6
+3.4
3.9
4.0
7.6
7,2
3
43. Unemployment rate, total
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
2
+7.9
2
+2.3
2
Rate at
trough
51. Bank 52. Per- 54 Sales
debits, sonal
of retail Change
in rate, Rate at
stores
all
income
trough
trough
.SMSA's
to peak
except
New York
2
-8.7
2
-3.6
2
2
Rate at
peak •
2
3.2
2
1.9
23
(NA)
(MA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+13,3
+8.8
+2.7
+85.6
+102.0
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.8
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+27.4
+13.5
+11.9
+34.9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.3
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.6
+59.7
+26.3
+20.0
+10.8
+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
+17.5
+35.2
+12.8
+27,9
+33.8
+27.0
+19.9
-3.7
7.1
3.3
+13.0
+13.0
+26.6
+23.6
+12.5
+12.7
+21.4
+29.4
+24.4
+39.0
+21.6
+25.6
+14.7
+23.2
-2.6
6.3
6.8
3.7
3.9
-2.0
3.2
11.2
1.1
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 54), the figure for
the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of the 3
months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. Ihe base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
^-The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
^World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
73
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Each month historical data are presented for series that either have not been shown here previously or have been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index. Current data are shown
in tables 2 and 4, Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (Annual rate, thousands)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
;.
4
'.
1,385
1,196
1,883
1,928
1,388
1,484
1,358
1,757
1,441
1,151
1,170
1,562
1,605
1,266
1,200
1,137
1,834
1,638
1,516
1,460
1,417
1,664
1,444
1,168
1,107
1,512
1,521
1,217
1,379
1,171
1,976
1,481
1,483
1,506
1,411
1,684
1,401
1,173
1,108
1,561
1,088
1,270
1,501
1,292
1,945
1,352
1,412
1,498
1,433
1,708
1,408
1,147
1,154
1,578
1,267
1,136
1,450
1,319
2,052
1,359
1,408
1,425
1,412
1,730
1,375
1,174
1,191
1,495
1,271
1,223
1,441
1,341
2,042
1,419
1,353
1,380
1,498
1,704
1,325
1,175
1,236
1,474
1,213
1,333
1,419
1,384
2,051
1,257
1,438
1,346
1,559
1,632
1,289
1,191
1,337
1,538
1,195
1,304
1,329
1,500
2,121
1,334
1,443
1,324
1,563
1,625
1,313
1,193
1,374
1,443
1,365
1,315
1,303
1,603
1,821
1,456
1,483
1,348
1,618
1,580
1,234
1,191
1,451
1,521
864
1,425
Nov.
Dec.
1,196
1,785
1,561
1,324
1,475
1,383
1,730
1,218
1,824
1,900
1,330
1,476
1,343
1,807
1,431
1,184
1,146
1,598
1,563
1,037
1,336
x
1,190
1,662
1,605
1,386
1,513
1,342
1,610
1,490
1,266
1,204
1,472
1,273
841
1,309
1,434
1,212
1,162
1,593
1,408
1,251
1,377
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (1957-59=100) 2
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953t
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
106.6
78.3
153.3
142.5
97.0
102. .2
99.3
133.0
107.0
84.3
89.2
111.8
100.2
89.5
97.8
79.8
155.1
111.9
112.3
107.8
97.8
147.2
104.0
88.6
76.7
116.6
98.2
88.2
101.3
84.5
155.0
101.8
102.8
108.7
103.1
126.1
106.9
89.4
85.0
121.8
86.0
91.3
113.4
94.1
157.7
94.4
100.8
103.5
104.1
129.5
106.7
84.5
89.7
116.3
93.9
91.4
103.9
101.5
157.1
96.7
98.6
103.6
106.0
130.2
99.3
88.2
93.7
114.4
95.4
93.2
100.4
103.7
156.5
94.3
98.9
100.8
113.8
123.0
97.5
90.1
100.0
112.6
88.1
98.7
99.5
107.4
178.1
90.5
105.1
97.4
116.9
123.5
96.8
84.0
109.9
109.7
91.5
98.9
92.4
109.4
154.1
92.3
104.9
95.8
115.9
119.1
94.6
89.8
108.8
110.8
87.8
101.9
82.6
132.6
130.3
119.1
112.5
92.2
118.8
117.4
92.2
90.0
111.6
106.7
88.4
100.2
87.1
132.1
122.9
90.8
113.8
97.0
123.0
114.8
90.9
88.8
115.1
102.7
89.9
104.2
84.0
138.2
120.4
88.5
114.2
97.5
132.5
104.7
91.3
86.3
130.7
98.2
90.8
101.8
80.6
154.5
91.7
105.5
99.8
128.7
104.3
90.5
87.1
112.9
105.4
87.0
99.0
116.2
94.8
101.8
103.9
109.5
99.5
103.1
106.4
102.2
96.7
100.9
103.1
97.4
96.3
110.9
97.0
102.6
105.5
108.7
97.8
103.7
106.4
100.5
96.1
101.6
104.6
94.8
97.3
111.8
98.8
101.4
104.7
108.4
98.7
103.6
105.8
100.9
94.4
102.4
104.7
94.3
97.3
142. a
38. Index of net business formation (1957-59-100)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
137.2
105.8
97.7
102.4
105.7
108.6
97.3
107.0
105.7
99.6
94.0
104.3
105.3
92.4
132.8
301.1
100.5
102.9
106.2
108.4
96.5
108.7
105.9
99.4
93.0
104.7
103.7
94.1
128.7
97.2
102.2
104.4
106.9
107.5
96.1
108.8
105.7
99.8
92.5
105.9
102.4
95.1
129.3
97.2
104.3
101.1
106.1
107.6
98.3
108.0
104.4
99.6
92.4
106.4
102.4
95.5
127.6
94.4
103.5
101.6
108.1
104.8
98.5
108.1
104.4
99.1
95.2
105.5
100.5
95.8
121.0
125.3
91.9
94.3
105.0 • 103.7
101.1
101.7
109.2
106.9
103.2
103.5
98.8
99.5
108.6
108.7
102.6
103.1
99.2
99.8
95.9
97.4
104.0
104.2
100.6
99.9
96.1
95.7
119.7
92.9
102.6
101.3
109.8
103.2
100.9
107.6
102.1
98.1
99.6
103.9
98.3
94.7
116.9
95.0
102.0
103.2
109.9
99.5
101.4
107.7
101.0
97.6
100.7
103.7
97.8
94.8
1
For the period since January 1959, data are not entirely comparable with those for the period prior to 1959. Annual levels
for the earlier years have been substantially revised to make them comparable with those for the later years. Month-to-month
movements for the earlier period, however, were not similarly revised but were superimposed on the new annual levels in accordance with the monthly pattern of the old series.
An explanation of the revision of the annual data is given in the Bureau of
the Census report, Housing Starts in May 1964 (Construction Reports: Housing Starts, C20-60). The figures shown in that source
are limited to annual aggregates.
The monthly data have been prepared by the Business and Defense Services Administration,
U. S. Department of Commerce. (See June 1964 issue of Construction Review.)
3
The index for the period 1948-1953 is based upon an estimate of the number of new privately owned dwelling units authorised
in urban areas as defined in the 1940 Census of Population.
Building permit data from reporting cities representing approximately 85 percent of the 1940 urban population were expanded to represent all urban areas by "matching" nonreporting to reporting urban places on the basis of city population size and location, and applying trend ratios for reporting places to nonreporting places. Between 1954 and 1958, the data are based on reports from approximately 6,600 identical permit-issuing places
including practically all large cities, a large proportion of smaller cities, and counties, towns, and townships. The universe
was further expanded in 1959 to 10,000 permit places and beginning in January 1963 to 12,000 such places. These data have been
made continuous by ratio adjustment and converted to an index, 1957-1959=100. Because of changes in the number of permit-issuing
areas during the three time periods mentioned above, this index (1) measures only short-term changes in the number of housing
•units authorized by identical permit-issuing places; (2) does not measure the movement of permits in all permit-issuing places;
and (3) does not measure the trend of housing construction in permit and nonpermit issuing places combined.
Hence, because of
the variations in coverage, the 1948-53, 1954-59, and 1960-65 segments are not directly comparable.
Digitized for 74
FRASER
INDEX
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Page numbers)
Charts
Tables
Appendices
Series
number1
F
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
A
B
C
D
Page
1.
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
10
10
10
10
11
n
n
11
11
10
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
12
12
12
13
13
13
13
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
29
14
14
13
14
11
14
14
11
30
31
32
37
38
10
14
14
14
12
40
41
42
43
45
46
47
49
15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
50
51
52
53
54
55
57
58
16
17
17
17
17
17
16
61
62
64
65
66
67
68
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
••
56
59
56
59
56
56
**
59
59
57
60
57
60
57
57
60
60
58
58
58
61
61
61
58
61
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
24
24
24
24
24
24
25
25
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
25
25
25
25
26
26
26
26
26
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
27
26
26
27
24
27
27
25
8
8
8
8
8
24
27
27
27
25
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
29
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
—
-
••
••
-•
••
64
64
64
64
64
64
65
65
65
65
65
65
68
66
••
•••
68
64
64
65 ' 66
65
..
64
64
65
65
66
..
68
64
65
66
••
68
68
••
64
64
65
65
66'
66
..
68
68
••
64
65
66
••
68
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
70
69
69
69
70
69
70
69
••
••
••
•-
••
••
64
65
66
••
68
64
65
66
••
68
64
64
65
65
66
66
68
68
64
64
64
65
65
65
66
68
••
••
-•
••
-
••
66
66
64
64
65
65
64
64
64
65
65
65
66
66
66
••
64
64
65
65
66
••
63
68
68
68
68
68
68
••
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.
July
f May
June
'64
'64
'64
'63
!
63
'64
' 65
68
*66
*66
*66
64
*68
64
66
Nov.
Aug.
Nov.
Mar.
June
June
June
Apr.
'64
'63
'63
'64
'64
' 63
'64
'64
64
64
65
*66
*66
*66
65
74
June
June
June
Jan.
Dec.
Dec.
June
June
'64
' 64
' 64
'64
'63
'63
' 64
' 65
*66
65
*66
*68
74|
Oct.
June
Mar.
June
June
'63
'64
'64
' 63
'65
72
68
72
72
*66
*66
70
68
Feb.
Dec.
Feb.
Feb .
Mar.
Feb.
Sept.
Aug.
'65
'64
'65
' 65
'64
'64
'64
'64
69
72
69
*66
*66
69
70
66
Aug.
Mar.
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
'64
'65
'64
'63
'63
'64
'64
'64
65
*68
66
66
• • 70
70
66
••
June
June
June
June
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
'64
'63
'64
' 64
'64
'64
'64
72
72
••
70
69
69
69
69
70
70
Page
Issue
••
72
72
72
73
73
72
72
72
••
72
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
70
70
69
69
69
69
69
70
Issue
68
68
68
*66
*66
65
74 1
71
71
70
69
69
71
69
69
69
71
69
69
G
E
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
72
72
••
••
••
*Appendix G.
•"•See back cover for series titles and sources.
75
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Continued
(Page numbers)
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
Series
number1
F
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
A
B
C
D
Page
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
22
19
19
19
20
22
22
22
22
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
34
31
31
31
32
33
34
34
34
70
69
69
71
71
70
70
71
71
72
72
72
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
19
19
19
20
22
19
22
22
20
19
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
32
34
31
34
34
32
32
69
69
69
71
70
71
70
70
71
69
72
72
72
110
Ill
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
20
20
20
20
21
21
21
21
21
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
33
33
33
33
33
33
70
70
71
71
69
69
69
69
69
121
122
123
125
126
127
128
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
Dl, 1 mo.. .
9 mo ...
D5
D6, 1 mo.. .
9 mo. . .••
Dll
D19, 1 mo..
9 mo. .
B23, 1 mo.. ••
9 mo. .
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
D34
D35
D36
D41, 1 mo..
6 mo. .
D47, 1 mo.. ••
6 mo. .
D48
D54, 1 mo..
9 mo..
D58, 1 mo c . ••
6 mo. .
D61
39
41
41
40
40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41
42
42
43
42
42
42
43
43
43
43
••
••
••
43
45
45
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45
back cover for series titles and sources.
76
46-7
46-7
. 56
46-9
46-9
55
55
48-9
48-9
50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3
48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5
72
72
G
E
••
Issue
70
72
72
72
69
69
69
69
69
Aug.
May
May
May
Dec.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
164
'65
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
70
70
70
66
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
'64
66
66
68
69
66
Oct.
June
Nov.
Dec.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
72
72
71
71
71
72
72
72
72
Mar.
Feb.
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
66
67
67
67
67
68
68
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
72
68
73
72
69
73
72
69
72
73
Mar.
Oct.
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65
69
70
70
72
70
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
'64
'64
'64
'65
'64
'65
'64
'64
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
Page
73
73
73
73
74
74
74
74
74
Issue
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
Jul^
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
@FedFRASER