Full text of Business Conditions Digest : June 1963
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JUNE 1963
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH MAY
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
Developments
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther M. Hodges, Secretary
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. ROSS ECKLER, Deputy Director
HOWARD C. GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, Jr., Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
CALVERT L DEDRICK, Chief, International Statistical Programs Office
JOHN C. BAKER, Public Information Officer
JUNE 1963
DATA THROUGH MAY
Office of th« Chi«f Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief
SAMUEL L. BROWN, Assistant Chief
Series ESI No. 63-6
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Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis. It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that n leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes . Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies. Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible . Publication is scheduled for around the 20th of the month
following the month of data.
i
New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made from
time to time to reflect the change from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation to other series,
changes in components of indexes, etc. These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. A new leading indicator has been added to the
report: Series 37, showing the percentage of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased
materials (National Association of Purchasing
Agents) , The new series has a good timing and
conformity record, is available promptly, and is
relatively smooth .
2. Series 27, Buying policy—capital expenditures, percent reporting commitments 6 months or
longer, has been dropped from the report.
3. Series 17, Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing, and Series 62, Labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing, have been revised to include supplements in the wage and salary component.
4. The MCD moving average is shown (chart l)
for series 4, persons on temporary layoff; series
14, liabilities of business failures; and series 15,
number of large business failures , To provide an
indication of the variation about the MCD moving
averages, seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
for the 3 most recent y e a r s .
5. A new appendix has been added to the report.
Appendix G shows historical data for new series,
revised series, and those for which such data have
not previously been included. In this issue, historical data are shown for series 17, 37, and 62.
6. Series 91 on total Defense Department obligations has been revised back to September I960
because of a new seasonal adjustment.
7. Several changes have been made in the legends for charts 1 , 2 , and 3 a See the chart diagram,
page 5.
ii
Contents
Page
Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue
i
ii
Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3
..
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
4
5
Basic Data
Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
C . NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U . S . Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
Table 1. — Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January I960 to
Present
6
11
14
15
18
20
Analytical Measures
Table 2.—Recent Changes for Business Cycle Series
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During
Recent Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business
Cycle Peaks
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
*. ,
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
*
Chart 3.—Diffusion Indexes —Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present .
Table 4. ^—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Rising) for 12 Major Economic
Activities: January I960 to Present . . *
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing Activities: January I960 to Present
*
Table 6. -^Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified
Time Spans and Percent of Series Rising: July I960 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
B » (D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods
Industries
......*..
C, (D 19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks . . . * , *
...
E). (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
«..,..
E. ( D 5 ) initial Claims -for Unemployment Insurance,
State Programs . ,
F. (D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
G. ( D47) Index of Industrial Production . . . , . . « , .
,*.*.....»
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores .,
iii
30
32
33
34
35
36
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Contents
Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5 . —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7 . — P e r c e n t of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9
Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as
Measured at Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates
in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change from
Specific Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After
the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
48
53
57
58
59
Appendixes
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of
Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 ....
Appendix B.—Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
Appendix C.—Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for
Monthly and Quarterly Business Cycle Series
Appendix D , — C u r r e n t Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business
Cycle Series Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER
(May
1962 to June 1963)..
Appendix E.—Summary Description of X-9 and X-10 Versions of the
Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program
Appendix F.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961
Appendix G. —Historical Data for Selected Series
6l
62
63
65
66
67
68
BACKGROUND .MATERIALS
Experimental work for this report was carried out in collaboration
with the National Bureau of Economic Research which is responsible for
much of the early research in this field. The book, "Signals of Recession and
Recovery, " contains an explanation of research findings helpful in interpreting current cyclical trends, a more detailed description of the indicators and
measures used, and additional historical data. This book was issued as
Occasional Paper 77 of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 261
Madison Avenue, New York 16, N . Y . ( 2 0 7 pages, price $ 3 ) . Other references, both to historical studies and current interpretations of the indicators,
appear in this book.
v
Descriptions
and
Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table l).—Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Intensive research over many years has provided
a record of the typical sequence of changes in economic processes during a business cycle; more
specifically, a list of significant series that usually
lead, those that usually move with, and those that
usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. The series have been grouped,
in accordance with the NBER classification, as
"leading," "roughly coincident, " or "lagging" indicators. In addition, other series are included in
this report for a more complete coverage of the
national economy. The series are described as
follows:
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 2-6).—
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( l ) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, (2) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and (3) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places.
NBER Leading Indicators. —Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators .—About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
NBER Lagging Indicators. *— Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series.
Other series.—Additional U.S. series with business cycle significance are also shown. Some of
these series, such as change in money supply,
merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
deficit, represent important factors in the economy,
but they have not qualified as indicators for various
reasons, such as irregularity in timing . Finally,
industrial production indexes for several countries
which have important trade relations with the United
States are presented.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7-9).—
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
Seasonal A d j u s t m e n t s
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series
are as follows:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
1
Descriptions and Procedures
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
17, Price per unit of labor cost index
1<8. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing
81. Index of consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to the public
83. Federal cash receipts from the public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91* Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S.
business firms
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
128. Japan, index of industrial production
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the Bureau of the Census or the
NBER. The adjustment factors used are shown in
the appendix table D, except for series 97 which is
the sum of seasonally adjusted components, and
series 9 which is based on unpublished source data.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the collecting
agency will be substituted for the series mentioned
above whenever they are published.
MCD Meviii Avirages
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This
span is usually longer than a single month because
month- to - month change s are often dominated by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used 12-month span (change from the same month
a year ago), and is different for different series
(see appendix C for MCD values) .
MCD is the first interval of months for which
the average amplitude of the cyclical fact or is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so. It is small for smooth series and large
for irregular series, The differences between
moving averages of the period equal to MCD are
commensurate with the differences between seasonally adjusted values separated by the same MCD
span; thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3month moving average are commensurate with differences in seasonally adjusted values over 3-month
spans. MCD moving averages all have about the
same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD
moving averages of highly irregular series, such
as business failures and Federal cash payments,
will show their clyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for such smooth
series as industrial production and personal in-
come. 1 MCD moving averages are shown for some
series in chart 1. To provide an indication of the
variation about these moving averages, seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted for years beginning
with 1960.
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Four kinds of analytical measures are presented—rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.— There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. 2 For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Kates of change are helpful
in judging and appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-tomonth rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises.
Diffusion indexes.— Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling) . Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, two comparison ' intervals
are used: 1-month intervals (January-February,
February-March, etc.) and 3-month intervals January-April, February-May, etc.) . The indexes
based on 1-month intervals are more "current" but
l
For a more complete description of MCD and its
use in studying economic series, see Business
Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. I,
ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University
Press: 196l) .
2
Various terms are used to describe the phases
of the business cycle. In this report both "contraction" and "recession" are used to describe
the declining phase. No difference in meaning is
intended.
Descriptions and Procedures
they are also more irregular than the 3-month indexes (see chart Z). Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes. When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 16 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5) . Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
and D58) . Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over both 3-month and
1-month spans while, for 1 indicator (D58), comparisons are over 1-month spans only. The 12 other
diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely
related to the above 9 indicators. They include two
indexes on capital appropriations (602 companies
and 15 industries)—NBER indexes based on data
from the National Industrial Conference Board; the
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based
on monthly reports of changes in profits (200 companies); the First National City Bank of New York
index based on quarterly profit reports (700 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and
anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers'sales
(800 companies) and new orders (400 companies) ,
based on data from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity groups), based on data
from the Association of American Railroads; and
new plant and equipment expenditures (16 industries), based on data from the Office of Business
Economics and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions . —Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning
point. Each month a timing distribution is constructed which shows the number of series reaching high values during each month of the expansion.
The timing distribution is summarized by showing
the number of series reaching new highs and the
percent currently high for each of several recent
months (see table 3) . Similar distributions of
"lows" will be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident
series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before
the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
expansions and at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded. (For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions.) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is
taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "HM is used in the basic data table
(table l) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "JL" to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables.—Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "- n for falling) in the components used for the diff us ion indexe s . The s e
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle.
Contractions are compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle
peak to the current month and over equal spans
from previous reference peaks. This type of com-
Descriptions and Procedures
parison is designated as representing changes from
reference peak levels and from reference peak
dates.
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels . In this report the current expansion is related
to the May 1960 reference peak. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are also computed
from their respective reference peaks to dates
which are the same number of months beyond the
succeeding reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of
comparison is designated as representing changes
computed from reference peak levels and from
reference trough dates. Although the spans from
reference trough dates are the same for each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak dates
are different, depending on the length of the contractions. This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
tevel of activity exceeds or falls short of the level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares in this respect with
earlier recoveries.
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates. This type of comparison
measures the extent of the rise from the trough
level so many months after the upswing began.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for
each series. For. example, the specific peak in
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock
prices is July 1959.
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production
worker wage cost per unit),
Charts
Two types of charts are used to highlight the
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators:
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series (charts 1, 2, and 3) .—
These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of each
series against the background of expansions and
recessions in general business activity from 1948
to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts
indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of
shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates
(endsi of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession will be entered only after a trough has been
designated.
Five ratio scales and several arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the
various series. The scale selected for each series
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of
change of various series can be compared with
each other only where scales are identical. See the
diagram, page 5, for additional help in using these
charts .
Recent performance in several individual indicators is compared graphically with that in earlier
business cycles. In making graphic comparisons,
the reference peak or trough levels are set equal
to 100, and the reference peak or trough dates are
alined depending on the phase of the business cycle.
Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) . — These
charts compare the performance of each series
during the current expansion or recession with that
during the cor responding phase of previous business
cycles. In these charts the usual date sequence
followed in charts is disregarded, and instead the
data are alined at a strategic point of the business
cycle, either the trough or the peak. Thus these
charts facilitate judgements on the vigor of a current expansion or the severity of a current recession relative to cyclical movements during the
corresponding phases of previous cycles .
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only
approximate. Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919. The principal cases of this
sort are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41, Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in
manufacturing)
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made,,
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current business or reference cycle (i.e., the cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the
corresponding phase of previous reference cycles *
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases
of previous specific cycles in that series. In both
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, the
levels of the preceding peaks are also alined and
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs are
also alined. See the section, "Comparisons of
Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions
of these comparisons .
Descriptions and Procedures
••••
:
:!
:
: : :
;
:<
%
:<<
-'
' • • , ' » . ' ' . . • '
•:.-':""': -.:^
: • < . : . - ' . ' : ' ?'- *'. •:%?...».•. -v •' ''.. •'SA-^i/. ^.: t.**?: •' :'• ••:' .':',.:'-•;'?•; .|y: :. =- •*;:•: j.-VS.-:. ••; ••;;: .. :: "-: '•., :*: *. ' -'P-"•':•' ''•: :
<
• - ' • • = • . . , .•:-. -.:*. .: -. .;• ';*! :,...;-:-^;-,:^. •:;.-,;;/•.. -;, *:>..•-.^-••-:--:'-----:::"- •• • '••'•'•:• v:-;.;.'. • :... •:,- •,:;;..; :"V..-:-..:- :.: . .;•;,,.• : .„,.;-,.•• .;=-. .,..: .i^^.vT^.^v^
:^?-:.r.. .sc:x<# .v::~:..::.' " • •-•: \ . • = :
. : . : • =: : .. :. ;=- ' • - ','.&:••.•.$
""'" '
•'
: ::
: f
:
:
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
of Expansion (white areas)
as desig
Peak (PI of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas)
as designated byNBER
:ates latest
month for which data are plotted
May)
^.indicates monthly
data. (Such data may be the
table-1 figures, MCD moving
averages, or diffusion indexe
charts 2 and 3.)
Broken tines indicate table-1
data for series where an MCD
moving average* is plotted
Parallel lines indicate a break
in continuity-e.g., data not
available, change in sample reported, change in base used for
computations, etc.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted
(*T* = first quarter)
See ^gck cover for complete
titles and sources of series
line indicates anticipated
,61. Bus. expend., new plant
and equip, fbil. dpl.)--Q
Solid line with au
plotting points
quarterly data
Varipus. rotic t
>t'tc scoJe
are used to highlight the cycl.v.-,
cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-1" is
a semilogarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"scale L-2", a semi logarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
* Certain irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages. These series are noted. Such averages are plotted 2 months behind actual data for
MCD 5-term moving averages and 2Hi months behind, for MCD 6-term moving averages. See text for description of MCD moving averages.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
•*!<!
Sensitive employment ond unemployment indicators
1. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg, (hrs.)
2, Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
30. Nonagr, placements, all Indus, (thous,)
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)inverted scale
4. Temp, layoff, all Indus, (thous.)"
inverted scale; MCD moving avg.— 5-term
5. Av. weekly initial claims, State unempl.
insur. (thous.)-iaverted scale
i
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See 'How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(July)
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
P
(Oct.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
118
16
14
I 12
6. New orders, dur.
(bil. doljnT-
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus. (bil. dol.)]
-."..;T ••••.
r
«
™
2
iwMrwre
1
9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil. sq. ft. floor area)
50
40
35
30
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. (biL dol.)
II. New capital appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.)-Q
Sfl
1
» i
7, Private n on farm housing starts (mil.)
1,8
1,6 m
1.4 2
1.2
1.0
29. New bldg. permits, private housing units! •
(index: 1957-59=100)
'"
140
120 2
100
80
1948
1949
1950 1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955
1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
1961 1962 1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
New businesses and business failures
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)
14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.)-inverted scale; MCD moving avg.— 6-term *$
15. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.)-inverted scale; MCD moving avg.- 6-term W
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
9
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aufl.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P ._!_
T
Profits and stock prices
35
30
25
20
16. Corporate profits, after taxes (bit. do!.)-Q
15
120
110 ^
100 §
90
SiS I8- profitfper dol,lar °^?'^/ mfg; (cents>7Q JS
12
10
8
6
20
; 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,^
oil industries (percent)
16
12
8
80
70
60
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43 *
50
40
30
20
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955
1956
1957 1958
1959 1960
1961
1962
1963
3
10
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(May) (F.b.)
P
T
| Inventory investment, buying policy and sensitive prices]
21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus. (bil. dot.)—Q
•|31. Change in book value, mfg.j
•;,
trade inventories (bil. dol.)
20. Change in book value, mfrs. inventories of purch
mtls. (bil. dol.
37. Percent reporting higher inventories (NAPA)
°licy' Prodl mtls* (percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer)
•f^'O
32. Vendor performance (percent reporting slower deliveries)
:.,;„::;.:
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bit. dol.)
K
23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)
-J
1948
1949 1950 T951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1963
80
11
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Employment and unemployment
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (mil.)
42. Total nonagr. employment (mil.)
43. Unemployment rate (percent)--in verted scale
40. Unemployment rate, married moles
(percent)—inverted scale
45. Av. weekly insured unemployment rate
(percent)-inverted scale
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957 = 100)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3 f * page 5.
1959 1960 1961
1962
1963
12
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(May) (F«b.)
(July) (Apr.)
(Oct.)
T
P
P
T
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100):
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (bildol.)-Q
49. GNP in current dollars (bil. dot.)-Q
57. Final sales (bil. dol
- 300
_J 250
1948
1949
1950
See 'How to Read Charts
1951
1952
1953
1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
13
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr,)
P
P
T
T
2.2
2.0 ~
1.8 §
' • ' 51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. dol.)
1.6
475
450
4253
400 f
52. Personal income (bil dol
375 *
350
325
120
115
710
105 _
••,•.•:,•:• 53, Labor income in mining/ mfg., constr. (bil. dol.)
A/
95 |
90
85
80
21
20
19
18 ^
17
;:.•-•..';.: 54. Sales of retail stores (bil. do!.)'
16
15
14
.:-.v:-.-:-:-:: 55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods f- .
" "
(index: 1957-59=100)
110
} Wholesale prices |
90
80
1948
1949 1950 1951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1960
1961 1962 1963
1
B«ic D»t»
14
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip. (biL dol.)-Q,j
Investment expenditures
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59*100}
Cost per unit of output
63. Labor cost per dol. of reol GNP (index 1957-59-100)-0
64. Book value of mfrs/ inventories (bil. dol.);:-.-••
'
'
'"'"''
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil.. dol.)
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
X/.V/..V.;;.;
A.v..v..'...Iyi
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans (percent)—Q|
1948 1949 1950 1951
1952
1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 196L 1962
See "How to Read Charts 1, 1, and 3," page 5.
1963
15
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
P
T
T
(May)
(F«b.)
P
T
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bit. dol.)
87. General imports (bit. dot.)
88. Merchandise trade balance (bit. doi.)
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U
of payments (bil. dol.)-Q
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
Basic Data
16
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con
82. Fed. cash payments to public (bil. do I.);..
MCD moving average— 5-term
Federal budget and military obligations
83. Fed. cash receipts from public (bil. dol.). •
MCD moving average-5-term
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bit. dot
moving average-- 5-term
95. Surplus OK deficit
Fed. Income and prod.£
acct. (bil. dol.)-Q
V-vSiil'
•"•\ •, .f••..'.'£,
\
AWwiwA/.I.W
V
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dot.)
MCD moving average— 6-term
91. Defense Dept. cblig., total (bil. dol.)
MCD moving avoroge— 5-term
?J:':
-.,,,. ,u-jo:
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.)
MCD moving average-6-term : ".'.*
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
17
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con,
(July)
(Aug.)
F
(May)
<F«b.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
T
T
:.: :|"".J 85. Change in money supply (percent)
98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent)
93. Free reserves (biI. dol.)
>rices (index: 1957-59=100)
94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100)
.-96. Mrfs/ unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.);
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.) V- 1
4.0
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
18
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(Nov.)
P
(May) (F.b.)
(July) (Apr.)
(Oct.)
T
P
!_
P
T
Industrial production indexes
121. OECD countries (index: 1957-59=100) f;
122.
United Kingdom (index: 1957-59=100).,;'
..........,...._,,,
123.
Canada (index: 1957-59=100)
n
47. United States (index: 1957-59-100}
1948
1949
1950 1951
1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5*
1955 1956 1957 1958
1959
1960 1961 1962 1963
19
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct,)
P
(July)
P
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
T
(May) (Fib.)
P
T
Industrial production indexes-con
;,:.;;125.
H
-i 140
West Germany (index: 1957-59
* v '.."A*
T*tt 128. Japan (index 1957-59=100)
126. France (index: 1957-59=100)
127. Italy (index: 1957-59=100)
40
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962
Se« "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3, " page 5.
1963
Basic Data
20
TabU l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 19*0 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by O; the reverse is
*,
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for Identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA". not available.
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and
month
1. Average 2. Accession 30. Nonagriworkweek of rate, manu- cultural
production facturing
placements ,
all indusworkers ,
tries
manufacturing
(Hours per (Per 100
prod, wkr, ) employees ) (Thous.)
3. Layoff 4. Number of
rate, manu- persons on
facturing temporary
layoff, all
industries1
(Per 100
employees ) (Thous . )
5. Avg, weekly 6. Value of 24. Value of
initial claims mfrs.1 new mfrs * ' new
orders, mafor unemploy- orders, durment insurance. able goods chinery and
State programs industries equipment
industries
(Thous.)
(Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.)
1960
40.4
40.1
March
39.9
April
, . , . * 39.8
May
40.1
39.9
June
July
39.9
39.6
September
39.4
39.5
39.3
©38.5
December * * . t *T »
1961
January. . . . .
...
39.0
39.3
torch
39.3
April
39.7
May
39.8
June
39.9
July
40.0
40.0
39.6
40.2
November
40.6
December. **.*..
40.4
1962
39.8
January
40.3
February
March
40.5
April
®40.8
Ifey
40.6
40.5
JUly
40.5
AUTUftt . * . . .
. . . .
40.2
September •»....*
40.5
October *
40.1
November
40.4
40.3
1963
January
40.2
February. .*..*.
40.3
Hfcrch...
40.4
April
., ,.
40.3
Mw
P40.5
July
August. .• . . .
...
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
©3.3
506
535
513
504
494
482
460
488
473
460
461
455
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.9
122
110
116
156
160
145
177
154
153
166
128
183
281
271
303
294
316
322
335
363
351
373
385
381
14.19
14.80
14.64
14.47
14.68
14.34
13.84
14.41
14.62
13.74
13.60
13.22
5.04
5.14
5.06
5.12
5,17
5.01
4.78
4.96
4.87
©4.65
4.81
4.66
4.0
3.8
O4.6
4.4
4.2
3.9
4.0
4.1
3.7
4.4
4.0
3-8
443
443
467
©440
478
497
481
519
502
527
542
544
2.9
©2.9
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.5
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.1
173
©222
215
141
150
151
101
136
127
113
115
127
393
.©429
379
381
358
334
348
316
329
304
305
296
©12.88
13.36
13.82
14.38
14.79
14.90
15.02
15.63
15.74
16.07
16.10
16.24
4.79
4.80
5.10
4.99
5.17
5.30
5.28
5.55
5-45
5.59
5.74
5*48
4-4
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.3
3.9
4.1
4.0
3.8
4.0
3.6
3.5
565
550
568
578
0602
546
560
551
540
569
563
529
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.6
2.0
1.8
1.9
2.0
154
082
118
112
116
114
128
131
120
129
139
114
304
291
279
280
300
309
308
303
300
300
298
317
16.43
16.19
16.00
15.73
15.97
15.44
16.27
15.91
15.89
16.57
16.34
16.02
5.78
5.71
5.59
5.47
5.60
5.62
5.71
5.60
5.69
5.62
5.85
5.74
3.9
3.9
r4.1
P4.1
(HO
558
547
550
582
561
2.0
1.8
1.6
®P1.5
(NO
179
112
108
146
87
316
295
CM) 277
288
287
2
291
16.71
17.09
r74
!.8
E)rl8,02
p!7.76
5.75
5,89
r5.84
r6.09
G3p6.09
Noveiibftr * * * * * * *
•"•Beginning with April 1962, the 1 6 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series* Prior to April 1962,
90
the 3 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Week ended June 8, 1963.
Basic Data
21
Toble 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY I960 TO PRESEKT-Contlnutd
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ( and current highs, by GO; the reverse is
*.
D
true for inverse series (series 3 t 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 )
5 . Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p», preliminary; "e", estimated; "a11, anticipated; and "MA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
9. Construction contracts
awarded for
commercial and
industrial
buildings
Year and
month
(Mil. sq, ft.
floor space)
1960
January
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
602 manufacturing corporations
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
5.56
5.69
5.61
5.72
5.78
5.58
5.39
5.58
5,51
©5.27
5.39
5.28
a. 69
torch
April
May
June
July
37.32
36.93
36.73
38.73
39.25
40.31
38.87
39.38
38.96
39.44
39.44
38.15
36.21
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61
5.53
5.45
5.58
5.53
5.73
5.90
5.82
6.13
5.97
6.16
6.42
6.02
38.99
44.10
45.19
40.87
45.39
42.99
39.86
42.65
39.90
41.62
41.68
42.48
6.34
6.38
6.31
6.11
6.27
6.29
6.37
6.29
6.24
6.24
6.50
6.59
44.94
(EU6.98
38.92
37.87
(NA)
6.36
6.51
r6.37
E3p6.71
WO
«
August t T
September
October
November
December T T •> - - r .
1961
March
April
May
July
September
October
2.24
2,01
©1.79
2.11
•1,82
1.92
2.24
2.13
7. New private
nonfarm dwelling units
started
(Ann. rate,
thous . )
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building permits
12. Net change
in business
population,
operat ing
businesses
13. Number
of new business incorporations
(1957-59-100)
(Thous. )
(Number)
1,302
1,366
1,089
1,275
1,309
1,264
1,209
1,335
1,067
1,237
1,206
©987
98.3
97.9
88.1
95.1
95.9
88.5
91.6
87,3
87.4
89.9
91.4
©87.1
1,108
1,087
1,258
1,162
1,278
1,376
1,333
1,303
1,397
1,413
1,345
1,255
89.3
89.4
92.3
92.5
93.0
97.6
98.4
101.2
97.4
103.1
102.7
111.6
1,247
1,134
1,407
1,521
1,566
1,399
1,447
1,500
1,261
1,504
1,571
1,453
103.9
113.1
105..3
112.4
103.2
104.0
106.1
102.8
107.3
107.4
115.8
120.6
1,220
1,255
rl,510
rl,6l8
(HIpl,690
117.3
112.8
112.9
rllO,2
UP123.6
+19
+17
+14
+10
©+6
+10
+10
+10
16,561
15,274
15,233
15,280
15,176
15,630
15,828
15,114
15,112
15,035
14,264
14,097
©13,607
14,570
14,658
15,327
15,298
15,431
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
1316,149
15,711
1962
March
April
May
June
July
October
December t . , » » r .
1963
March
April
May
July
October
2.32
2.00
2.43
132,74
P2.13
+11
SDr+12
r+11
r+11
r+11
15,279
15,775
15,727
15,372
15,363
14,990
15,171
15,216
15,232
15,121
14,892
14,767
14,457
15,398
r 15, 604
r 15, 257
(M)
Basic Data
22
TobU l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Contlrw.d
Sertee are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by GD; the reverse le
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA», not available.
NBER Leading Indicators— Continued
17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
Index
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures
15. Business 16. Corpofailures with rate profits
liabilities after taxes
of $100,000
and over
(Mil. dol.)
Year and
month
(Number per (Ann. rate, (1957-59bil. dol.)
week)
&L*
1960
52.38
57.60
61.57
Mirch
*
April
63.71
May
76.52
jtjne
©131.31
J'jly
71.04
94.66
86.02
85.98
80.44
November
82.78
December. ......
29
27
30
30
32
36
38
36
43
©43
37
41
24.9
23.5
' 21.9
21,7
103.5
102.3
101.9
101.4
100.8
100.4
100.4
99.9
99.8
100.0
99.9
98.9
18. Profits
(before taxes) per dol.
sales, all
mfg* corporations
22. Ratio,
profits to
Income originating, corporate, all
industries
(Cents)
( Percent )
8.8
10.0
8.0
9.4
7.8
8.9
7.2
8.8
©6.6
©8.2
21* Change in
bus. Inventories, fmrm and
nonf arm, after
valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
(1941-43-10)
bil. dol.)
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks*
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55.22
57.26
55.84
56.51
54,81
©53.73
55,47
56.80
+10. 8
+4,4
+2.1
-1.1
1961
February * . * * * * *
March
April
May
J'uly
September
October
November
December
1962
February. * . * * . .
March
jVprll
May
June •*•
July
August. . * . * « . * .
October
November ..*...*
December* ...,.,
1963
January. *
March
April
May
JTuly
Auffust
77.79
83.73
116.17
76.88
82.96
86.69
80.15
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
©71.81
38
41
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38
101.53
86.03
74.89
108.58
94.54
91.70
107.48
132.64
103.73
122.39
98.94
90,41
37
(H)32
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
153.15
90.04
93.49
89.72
122.31
49
42
a
40
54
©20.3
22.9
23.7
26.3
25.6
26.1
26.1
E127.3
27.1
99.2
98.9
©98.9
99.9
100.2
100.8
101.2
102.6
102.2
102.0
101.7
102.0
101.2
101.1
101.5
100.6
100.9
100.9
101.5
100.7
O103.2
101.7
102.2
101.5
101.4
100.6
102.4
101.2
p!02.7
*
S^pt^mbftr * * » t » t
October • * * • * . » •
December
*
1
See
2
"New Features and Changes for This Issue." page ii.
June 18, 1963.
7.6
9.1
7.9
9.3
08.6
(EUO.O
8.2
9.5
8.1
9.6
8.1
9.6
8.3
9.7
7.9
9.6
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
S171.74
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
^0.02
©-3.6
+2.1
+4.0
+6.0
Sl+6.7
+4.0
+1.0
+1,2
+3.0
Basic Data
23
Toble 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESEKT-Continu.d
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ( and current highs, by (g]; the reverse is
*.
D
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p»» preliminary; «e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and «NA», not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
31. Change in
book value of
manufacturing
and trade inventoriesf
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1960
January. .*•»«.*
20. Change in 37. Purchased
book value of materials ,
!
mfrs . invenpercent retories,
porting higher
purchased
inventories
materials
( Percent
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.) reporting)
26. Buying policy, production
mat Is., percent
reporting commitments 60
days or longer*
( Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance ,
percent
reporting
slower
deliveries*
( Percent
reporting)
25. Change in1
manufacturers
unfilled orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices*
(1957-59*100)
M&y...
July
August
November
+4.6
+1.5
+0.8
+1.0
«0.4
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-3.2
-2.4
(D-3.4
-0.4
48
58
52
47
44
45
42
37
41
38
41
39
64
64
56
61
55
57
54
50
49
50
50
©48
44
30
©27
28
32
34
36
40
41
39
38
38
-0.52
-0.78
-0.77
-0.68
-0.19
-0*22
-0.24
-0.17
-0.13
©-0.77
-0.41
-0,30
105.7
104.3
102.4
103.8
104.1
102.7
101.6
102.1
101.2
99.7
98.5
©96.8
-5.8
-3.2
©-8.7
+4.1
+0.7
+0.4
+4.5
+1.8
[Hj+7.8
+4.2
+6.1
+5.0
-0.3
-1.0
+0.1
-0.1
+0.8
-2.2
+1.1
+0.2
+3.0
+0,5
+0.9
+1.3
41
©35
39
42
46
43
46
54
57
56
52
55
51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54
38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53
-0.37
-0.02
+0.02
+0.46
+0.23
+0.11
+0.31
+0.35
+0.06
+0.29
+0.34
+0.55
97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
©104.4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0
+7.6
+6.3
+4.2
+2.5
+3.1
+4.3
+3.3
-3.0
+5.7
+3.8
-1.9
+3.1
rg+5.o
+2.2
+2.9
+1.0
+0.2
-1.0
-1.5
-1.7
-0.1
-0.8
-0.9
+0.7
[HJ53
57
57
55
53
48
45
46
44
45
49
48
57
OBJ61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51
56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.53
+0.22
-0.10
-0.34
-0.31
-0.32
-0.05
-0.57
-0.55
-0.18
-0.52
-0.03
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
+3.3
+1.9
r+4.7
p+3.1
(NA)
March
+12.8
+11.7
+11.4
+3.2
+8.5
+2.3
-1.5
+0.4
-0.6
+2.4
-2.1
-6.2
+1.1
+1.0
r+0.3
p*0,4
(NA)
46
48
46
49
57
50
55
54
53
52
50
52
54
(HJ60
58
+0.40
+0.61
S)r+1.42
r+0.81
p+0.60
1961
jferch
April
May
June
Judy
Auigust.
September . . .
...
December. . » » . t ,
1962
Ja nuary
March
April
| e . . . .;
fy
June
July
August
September * » T -T »
November •*.**..
1963
January
March
April
May
JU]y
August
November
17, 1963.
95.5
95.1
9.
44
94.5
95.2
1
96.9"
Basic Data
24
Toble 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES; JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Contlniwd
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are Indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by QD; the reverse is
*,
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for Identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" Indicates
revised; "p"t preliminary; »e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and
month
41. Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
(Thous. )
42. Total 43. Unemnonagricul- ployment
tural em- rate, total1
ployment ,
labor force
survey1
(Thous. )
40. Unemployment
rate, mar- 1
ried males
( Percent )
( Percent )
45. Avg. weekly
insured unemployment rate,
State programs
( Percent )
46. Index of 47. Index of
help-wanted industrial
advertising production
in newspapers
(1957-100)
(1957-59100)
50. Gross
national
product In
1954 dollars
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
1960
July.
August .........
October
November
54,211
54,445
54,427
54,702
54,584
54,538
54,514
54,403
54,301
54,190
53,995
53,707
60,521
60,863
60,464
61,144
61,252
61,215
61,090
60,982
61,114
60,857
61,142
©60,801
5.29
4.96
5.45
5.21
5,18
5.46
5.48
5.66
5.60
5.98
6.20
6.60
3.38
3.11
3.53
3.35
3.42
3.60
3.72
3.85
3.80
4.28
4.22
4.74
4.27
4.17
4.54
4.26
4.19
4.39
4.67
5.10
5.38
5.68
6.27
©6.33
109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
90.1
89.4
82.6
84.6
82.2
©79,0
111.7
111.0
110.5
109.7
109.9
109.6
109.1
108.7
107.8
107.0
105.4
103.6
53,581
©53,485
53,561
53,663
53,894
54,182
54,335
54,333
54,304
54,385
54,525
54,492
February
March
April
May
60,980
60,912
61, 3H
61,111
61,091
61, U8
61,254
61,283
61,330
61,476
61,766
61,738
6.68
7.03
6.82
7.01
©7.11
6.91
6.96
6.67
6.69
6.42
6.07
5.98
4.78
©5.09
4.72
4.91
5.00
4.78
4.74
4.61
4.54
4.12
3.94
3.91
6.15
6.32
6.26
5.91
5.61
5.32
5.29
5.22
5.10
5.04
5.08
4.81
79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
99.1
96.9
©103.3
103.4
103.8
106.6
108.8
110.9
112.0
113.4
112.0
113.5
114.8
115.6
54,434
54,773
54,901
55,260
55,403
55,535
55,617
55,536
55,583
55,647
55,597
55,580
61,882
62,148
62,356
62,295
62,552
62,541
62,715
63,017
63,074
63,036
62,708
63,248
5.84
5.69
5.49
5.58
5.52
5.50
5.43
5.67
5.63
05.34
5.76
5.54
3.81
3.59
3.53
3.69
3.48
3.64
3.54
3.54
3.43
©3.35
3.43
3.57
4.71
4.52
4.41
3.93
03.82
3.96
4.25
4.41
4.38
4.55
4.84
4.79
102.3
105.9
13106.3
106.1
106,0
98.5
97.9
97.0
92.8
96.8
95.9
e95.2
114.3
116.0
117.0
117.7
118.4
118.6
119.3
119.7
119.8
119.2
119.6
119.1
55,536
55,730
r 55, 963
r56,189
[M]p56,359
62,988
63,245
63,628
063,851
63,643
5.77
6.09
5.59
5.65
5.91
3.81
4.04
3.50
3.37
3.37
4-84
4.69
4.39
r4.03
3.96
2
4.27
097.5
elOO.5
e98.5
100.2
P95.9
rl!9.2
r!20.2
r!21.3
r!22.5
[W]pl23.8
440.9
442.3
439.7
437,7
1961
February
March
April
May
July
September
October
November
1962
January
March
April
.
tfey.
June
July
September
October
November
December
©433,9
443,9
450.4
463.4
467.4
470.8
471.6
477.7
1963
February
April
May
July
D482.7
September
October
December
•'•Beginning with April 1962, the 1 6 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962,
90
the,1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
s
Week ended June 1, 1963.
Basic Data
25
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by Iy3; the reverse is
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5. 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; »p"f preliminary; »e«, estimated; "a"( anticipated; and "NA". not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
49. Gross na- 57. Final
tional product sales
in current
(series 49
minus 21)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
51. Bank
52. Personal
debits outside income
NYC, 343
centers
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1960
501.7
490.8
504.8
500.4
503.7
501.5
503.3
504.4
©500.8
©504-4
torch
April..
tfey
July
August* 1 1 1 * * « • *
September. * * » * »
October.
November
1961
January
March
April
May
513.1
511.0
522.3
518.3
538.6
532.6
545.0
538.3
(fey
552.0
547.9
July
August ....... t .
555.3
554.2
563.5
562.3
0571.8
Or 568. 7
July
October
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
54. Sales of
53. Labor
income in
retail stores
mining, manufacturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil.
dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale
prices except farm
products and
foods
(1957-59«100)
1,692.2
1,765.4
1,715.2
1,731.2
1,731.2
1,739.0
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3
395.7
395.2
395,3
400.2
401.6
402.5
402.4
403.2
403.8
404.7
403.8
©402.6
108.7
108.5
107.9
108.3
108.8
108.4
108.3
107.6
107.0
106.9
105.5
103.7
18,100
18,161
18,219
18,860
18,428
18,466
18,118
18,201
18,104
18,543
18,398
17,887
101.5
101.4
101.4
101.4
101.2
101.3
101.3
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.0
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9
403.4
404.2
408.5
410.6
413.3
416.4
420.1
104.0
©103.3
104.2
106.0
107.1
108.5
108.9
108.5
108.3
110.1
111.7
111.8
©17,773
17,786
18,117
17,851
17,985
18,189
18,017
18,172
18,131
18,577
19,098
18,827
101.0
101.1
101.1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9
2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044.4
2,015.0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9
428.8
431.9
435.2
438.3
439.7
440.7
441.9
443.0
443.5
445.6
448.2
450.4
r2, 148.7
r2, 086.4
r2,094.7
SJr2,193.6
p2,150.9
452.4
451.1
453.2
r456.2
(SP458.2
as. 3
419.7
423.6
427.8
430.5
1962
April
October • • » . * . . .
November
D«jfiember. . . . .t ,
1963
February
March
April
Kfey,
July
September
October
ended June 11, 1963.
110.8
112.1
113.0
115.0
115.1
1H.9
115.2
115.0
114.8
114.8 .
114.8
114-8
114.5
115.2
115.9
117.3
©pllS.l
18,898
19,027
•19,328
19,673
19,508
19,163
19,761
19,645
19,693
19,821
20,230
20,203 20,247
20,350
r20,365
r20,355
(H]p20,365
100.8
100.7
©100.7
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
SI 100. 9
100.8
100.7
100.5
100.5
100.5
100.2
100,5
^00. 1
26
Basic Data
Toblt 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Conttnwf
Sories are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are Indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ( and current highs, by @ ; the reverse is
*.
D
]
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 ) Series numbers are for identification only and do
5.
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The Mr" indicate*
revised; Hp", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available.
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Business
expenditures
on nev plant
and equipment ,
total
Year and
month
(Ann. rate,
bll. dol.)
1960
35.15
torch
April
May
36.30
July
August
September. . , « , •
October
November . * . * • • *
December .......
35.90
35.50
62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, total
manufacturing
63. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, total
GNP
( 1957-59-100) (1957-59-100)
Revised1
97.2
98.6
103.2
99.1
99.7
104.3
100.3
100.9
100.9
105.4
101,4
101.3
101.2
101.7
105.0
102.2
64. Book value
of manufacturers1 Inventories, all
manufacturing
Industries
65. Book value 66. Consumer
of mfrs.' in- installment
debt
ventories of
finished goods,
all manufacturing Indus.
(Bll. dol.)
(Bll* dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
53.3
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.0
55.1
54.9
55.0
54.7
54.4
54.0
53.7
20.4
20.6
20.8
21.0
21.2
21.3
21.4
21.6
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.8
38,971
39,452
39,878
40,377
40,672
41,013
41,299
41,508
41,762
41,898
42,032
42,143
53.7
53.6
©53.3
53.4
53.4
53.4
53.5
54.0
54.4
54.8
55.0
55.2
21.8
21.8
21.7
21.7
21.5
21.5
©21.5
21.7
21.8
21.9
21.9
22.0
42,118
42,032
41,986
U,865
©41,856
41,900
55.7
56.2
56.6
56.7
56.8
56,9
57.0
57.0
57.2
57.3
57.2
57,4
22.1
22.1
22.2
22.2
22.3
22.4
22,5
22.6
22.7
22.7
22.8
23.0
43,066
43,338
43,716
44,209
44,648
45,069
45,455
45,813
46,015
46,399
46,980
47,438
57.5
57.7
r57.9
(H)p58,2
(NA)
23.0
23.0
23.2
Op23.3
(NO
r47,940
r48,376
r48,776
(349,306
(NA)
67, Bank rates
on short-terra
business
loans, 19
cities*
(Percent)
5.34
5.35
4.97
4.99
1961
February
March
April
*
33.85
©33.50
July
August* ........
34.70
October. *
November « . , . » * *
December. ......
35.40
101.9
102.1
102.1
100.9
100.4
99.7
99.3
©98.1
98.4
98.5
99.1
98.8
106.1
105.8
105.8
©104.7
a, 904
41,959
42,008
42,170
42,439
42,787
4.97
4.97
4.99
(D4.96
1962
January
February
March.....
April
35.70
36.95
toy
July
Auiwst. . . . . . * . .
September . . * * , .
October
November ...•**.
EJ38.35
37.95
99.4
99.4
98.9
99.9
99.9
99.9
m "-4
EJlOO.3
98.1
99.2
98.7
99.3
105.5
106.9
©107.6
106.8
4.98
5,01
4.99
IS5.02
1963
January « . « » * « . *
February
March
April
May
June
*
36.95
ra38.40
98.7
99.5
97.5
98.5
P97.8
107.2
July
August
September
October
a39.95
December.
x
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
5.00
Basic Data
27
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Contlnued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are Indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are Indicated by © and current highs, by (H]; the reverse Is
*.
true for Inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 ) Series numbers are for identification only and do
5.
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" Indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
86. Exports,
excluding
military aid
shipments,
total
Year and
month
87. General
imports ,
total
88. Merchandise
trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)
89. Excess, 82. Fedreceipts (4-) eral cash
or payments payments
(-) In U.S. to the
balance of public
payments
83. Federal cash
receipts
from the
public
84. Federal cash
surplus (+)
or deficit (-)
95, Surplus
(+) or deficit ( )
-,
Federal income and
product acct.
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.)
bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bll. dol.) (Mil. dol.)
1960
1,561.3
1,565.7
1,518.1
1,622.2
1,659.3
1,633.8
1,706.5
1,624.8
1,647.2
1,667.6
1,680.6
1,645.3
1,246.3
1,348.0
1,289.8
1,348.6
1,269.0
1,276.5
1,270.7
1,255,8
1,220.6
1,206.0
1,161.7
1,124.8
+315.0
4-217.7
4228.3
4-273.6
4-390.3
4-357.3
4435.8
4-369.0
4426.6
4461.6
4-518.9
4-520.5
1,622.7
1,711.6
1,750.7
1,661.5
1,585.1
1,581.9
1,688.5
1,688.9
1,678.4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8
1,161.4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152,0
1,152.9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5
4-461.3
+561.8
+587.8
+509.5
+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3
1,654.8
1,812.1
March
1644
,7.
April
1,802.6
May
1,782.1
June* •••»..*«..
1,838.3
July
1,728.9
August. , , , 1 1 * . .1,687.3
September
1,943.3
October
1,492.8
Hovember »
1,695.2
Iteoftriber .»»»...
1,838.9
1,327.4
1,315.4
1,339.3
1,363.8
1,386.4
1,342.4
1,361.8
1,364.2
1,476.4
1,318.9
1,431.7
1,371.9
+327.4
+496.7
+335.1
+438.8
+395.7
+495.9
+367.1
+323.1
+466.9
+173.9
+263.5
+467.0
1,093.2
1,493.2
1,484*3
1,423.3
(NA)
-111.1
+637.4
+506.5
+494.8
(NA)
torch
May
July,
September
October
*.
r-775
r-831
r-1,018
^-1,257
89.9
97.8
91.9
94.9
94.4
91.9
91.5
97.4
95.0
92.7
102.0
96.3
89.9
96.6
94.2
99.8
102.9
94.8
93.6
140
0.
100.5
91,7
101.4
99.5
00
.
-1.2
42,3
44,9
+8.5
+2.9
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
-0,6
+3.2
95.5
95.4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106.5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106.5
104.3
94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101,7
-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11.1
-8.8
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6
115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2
101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
104.4
111.2
110.1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109,0
-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2
116.7
106.5
117.0
118.0
116.2
107.7
109.8
106.9
110.1
113.9
-9.0
+3.3
-10.1
-7.9
-2.3
+8,1
+5.5
+1.5
-0.4
937
1,104
1,020
983
1,488
rl,397
2,204
1,256
1,256
945
1,468
1,096
1961
February
torch
April.,
May
July
September
*
October. . . . .
...
November
1962
January ....**,.
r-472
r*f31
r-655
r-l, 274
r-585
r-452
r-356
r-793
-6.3
-4.2
-3.3
-1.3
-2.4
-0.7
-0.9
-1.4
1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
rl,390
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,589
1,872
1,211
1,254
1,831
1,182
1,325
1,934
1,386
1,037
1,805
1,755
1,022
1963
March
April
May
June
July
982,1
2,130.6
1,990.8
1,918.1
(NA)
r-806
November
P^oeniber. t - » » t »
1
Includes
2
single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
p-1.6
1,732
1,228
1,023
1,275
(NA)
28
Basic Data
Toble 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continuod
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are Indicated by ( and current highs, by GO; the reverse is
*.
D
true for Inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" Indicates
revised; "p^, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S* series with business cycle significance — Continued
91. Defense 92. Mili- 85. Percent 98. Percent 93* Free 81. Index 94. Index 96. Mfrs.»
Department tary prime change in change in reserves* of con- of conunfilled
obligations, contract total U.S. money supsumer
struction orders ,
total
awards to money
ply and
prices
contracts , durable
U.S. busi- supply
time detotal
goods inness firms
posits
value
dustries
Year and
month
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, man«
ufacturlng
(1957-59- (1957-59(Mil, dol.) (Mll.dol.) ( Percent ) (Percent) (Mil, dol. ) 100)
100)
(Bll.dol.) (Bil. dol.)
1
1960
Revised
January* *******
1,770
3,234
-0*14
-0.14
-375
102.3
93
47.56
3,439
-0.28
February* *
1,740
-0.38
-365
102.5
93
46.77
torch
1,738
3,368
-0.28
-0.10
-219
102.6
100
46.00
8,05
AprH
1,368
3,362
-0.14
-0.00
-194
102.9
105
45.32
tfcy
1,811
3,677
-0.28
-0.05
-33
103.0
45.13
97
June •*..
3,771
1,687
-0.28
-0*05
103*1
+37
7.74
44*91
108
July
2,231
+0.'53
+0.21
103.1
4-120
5,305
44.67
113
August
2,302
40.36
40.67
4247
103.3
109
3,824
44.50
September
2,361
40.07
40*38
+414
3,999
103.2
44*37
107
7.15
October
1,477
40.07
3,357
40.47
4480
103.5
43*60
117
November
2,127
40.28
4614
103.6
4,109
-0.14
111
43.19
December. ......
1,797
40.28
40.52
+669
103.8
3,583
42.89
120
7.07
1961
January. . . . .
...
+0.56
+696
3,641
1,944
+0.14
108
103.9
42.52
+0.28
4,065
2,153
+517
104.0
+0.74
42.49
95
March
+0.28
3,537
1,757
+486
104.0
+0.51
104
6,72
42.51
April
3,381
1,910
+0.21
+0.46
+551
103.9
103
42.97
May
3,727
1,530
+0.21
102
43.20
+0.64
+453
103.9
June
«...
0.00
+0.36
111
3,893
1,993
+549
104.1
6.58
43.31
July
+0.07
+530
3,784
2,087
110
43.62
+0.45
104.4
August* **....*•
0.00
2,232
+0.32
116
5,344
+537
43.97
104.4
September «*«...
2,158
+0.42
K).58
484
,7
+547
6,68
104.5
44.03
103
October
4,296
2,651
+0.49
+0.67
+442
44.32
104.5
114
November
4,121
+0.62
2,379
+0.49
+517
116
4.6
46
104.5
December* ..*.*•
4,476
2,281
+0.57
45.21
+0.55
+419
119
104.5
6.83
1962
February
March
April
May
*
July
Aucunt.
September ...*.*
October
1963
January
*.
February*
*
March
April...
May
June *....*.*...
July
4,488
3,990
3,914
4,402
4,126
4,019
5,026
4,623
3,968
4,914
4,938
3,783
3,073
2,135
2,225
1,885
1.808
1,808
2.068
2,488
2,242
3,089
3,154
1,758
+0.14
-0.27
+0.14
+0.27
-0.27
-0.07
+0.07
-0.41
+0.14
+0.55
+0.55
+0.68
+0.79
+0.57
+0.82
+0.69
+0.21
+0.42
+0.51
+0.04
+0.46
+0.84
+0.91
+1.03
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.2
105.4
105.4
105.5
105.6
105.9
105.9
105.9
105.8
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138
45.74
45.96
45.86
45.52
45.22
44.90
44.85
44.28
43.73
43.55
43.03
43.00
47
.U
4,050
3,593
4,031
(NA)
2,390
2,674
r2,157
1,786
(NA)
+0.54
-0.07
+0.20
+0.34
pO.OO
+0.98
+0.44
+0.72
+0.52
p+0.44
+384
+300
+271
r+313
p+250
106.2
106.2
106,3
106.2
(NA)
121
130
118
125
(NA)
43.40
44.01
r45.43
r46.24
P46.84
September* . . .
..
October
November
December* * * * * * *
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue.* page 11.
7.15
7.06
7.24
7.76
(NA)
Basic Data
29
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-ContinuW
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ( ) and current highs, by E; the reverse is
*.
£
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 )
5 . Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p11, preliminary; ne", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Internationa'L comparisons of industria 1 production
121. OECD,
European
countries (
index of
industrial
product ion
Year and
month
1
122. United 123. Canada,
Kingdom,
index of
index of
industrial
industrial production
production
47. United
States ,
index of
industrial
production
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59100)
(1957-59100)
Revised2
Itf?
108
108
110
110
11
1
112
112
115
ll/.
Ill
(1957-59100)
(1957-59100)
(1957-591960
(1957-59-
(1957-59-
(1957-59-
100)
100)
100)
100)
11
1
112
114
113
114
116
118
116
16
1
117
118
120
122
109
110
110
11
1
110
113
113
11
1
110
109
109
109
104
105
105
107
107
109
109
11
1
112
112
114
114
103
103
104
107
109
11
1
112
113
112
114
115
116
124
125
126
126
124
121
122
121
124
123
124
128
inft
10
1
11
1
110
IT?
11*!
16
1
116
323
19/
August. ........
September
October, ...*.*.
112
11
1
10
1
110
110
110
109
109
108
107
105
104
12A
July.
109
107
108
105
105
105
104
104
105
105
105
105
122
torch
April
May
June
109
109
110
112
112
11
1
11
1
112
112
112
110
112
118
113
113
115
11 "5
116
118
115
118
19O
llA
199
193
193
19Z.
19ft
19*5
197
197
19A
19Q
19Q
1 39
1 3ft
izn
I/A
1Z.3
1/.1
izft
1 17
lift
1961
torch.
April
toy
June
July
August
117
119
119
120
119
.
120
120
119
120
121
122
123
October
November .......
December
115
116
116
116
117
117
118
118
119
119
119
122
130
19ft
199
12Q
ipe
131
123
12A
123
19^
123
191
1 /O
J-4?
1 SI
I/O
A4"
111
1 **3
1^7
1 *»1
•Lp-L
134
134
134
136
136
138
137
140
145
149
148
162
160
166
166
172
175
179
182
183
187
190
191
1962
February. ......
March
April
toy
rl91
12A
191
1 91
June
July
September. . , » t »
October. . *
November * *
127
126
127
127
n3
11A
113
117
11*5
no
113
rllO
116
118
118
TIQ
117
18
1
lift
iort
19Q
11Q
1 9fl
19ft
19ft
11Q
11Q
120
120
133
126
11Q
1 3ft
120
133
r!20
1 1Q
1 33
128
128
126
IOC
•t QT\
xyu
188
1 Q3
±7j
1Q9
1Q1
-L"->
1 /Q
±47
1 1O
1 13
A5J
1 1ft
1 Q7
J-7J
1Q/
•«•"«*
lAn
i on
1Qf\
1O9
1963
rl91
TO 9ft
torch
April
toy
rl09
-rll 3
riij
1 9*7
1 T7
(NA)
(NA)
rl20
no
T»l 91
19O
197
197
1 31
1 93
J.O
(HA)
128
l?ft
199
it! 9/
px<4
131
(NA)
f Ml )
\n&.)
19Q
(NA)
July
Amrust. ........
November
1
0rganization
2
for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Index has been revised to include 250 components as compared with the 180 previously used.
•nl 17
1 11
•OP
— 1 QQ
•1 Ay
J-74
/MAT
VWK;
Analytical Measures
30
Table 2.-RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example. If the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as 40.6.
Series
M&ftSUTQ
Of
change
NBER LEADING .INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers , manufacturing
*.*«»..*
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries...
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted).
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (inverted)
5. Avg. weekly initial claims for unemployment Insurance, State (inverted).
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
1962
Avg.
change, Sept. Oct.
1948- to
to
19611 Oct. Nov.
Percent • . 0.5
6.0
..do
. .do. . * .3.4
.
11.9
• .do
-1.0 +0.7
+5.3 -10.0
+5.4 -1.1
+10.0 -5.6
19.4
-7.5
..do
7.0
0.0
+0.7
..do
!>4. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
machinery and equipment Industries... ..do
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings.. ..do
10. Contracts and orders for plant and
equipment
*«
* ..do
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
602 manufacturing corporations3
. .do
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units
started
, ..do
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits.... ..do
12. Net change in business population,
5.6
+4.3
6.1
12.4
3.9
3
13. Number of new business incorporations. Percent*. 3.0
14. Current liabilities of business
16.3
failures ( inverted )
..do
15. No. of business failures with liabil17.3
ities of $100,000 and over (Inv.)*... ..do
7.7
0.7
17, Price per unit of labor cost index,... ..do
IS. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of
7.7
22. Ratio, prof Its (after taxes) to income
5.8
originating, corporate, all Indus.3.. ..do
2.6
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks
..do
21, Change in bus. inventories, farm 4
and Ann. rate,
nonfarm, after val. adjustment3 .... bil.dol. 3.1
31. Change in book value of mfg. and
4.0
20. Change in book value of mfrs.1 inven4
tories, purchased materials
. .do
1.7
37. Purchased materials, percent reportIng higher inventories.
Percent . .7.3
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent
report, commitments 60 days or more.* • .do. * * . .
6.2
32. Vendor performance, percent reportn-a
ing slower deliveries.
..do... .
25. Change In mfrs.' unfilled orders,
durable goods industries *
Bil. dol* 0.46
23. Index of industrial materials prices.* Percent . .2.2
NBER ROOOHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Ifember of employees in nonagrlcul04
.
tural establishments
,.. ..do
42. Total nonagricultural employment,
0.4
labor force survey. *
,*
..do
4.7
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)... . .do
5.8
40. Unemploy. rate, married males (inv.).. ..do
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs (Inverted)
. .do. . .5.6
,*
See footnotes at end of table.
Jan.
to
Feb.
-57,0 +37.4
+3.6
-0.2
0.0
+5.8
+6.3
-35.2
Apr.
to
May
May
to
June2
+0,5
NA
-3.6
m
+40.4
-6.4
+0.3
+6.6
+6.1
-4.0
+0.3
-1.4
-2,0
+4.3
+2.3
+2.3
+3.1
-1.4
-1.2
+4.1
-1.9
+0.2
+2.4
-0,8
+4.3
0.0
+4.3
+0.1
+1.9
+5.8
+4-5 -17,2
-2.7
NA
+4.2
+1.4
-3.5
+2.4
-2.2
+5.3
NA
+7.2
+4.4
0.0
+12.8
11.2
4.1
Dec.
to
Jan.
+0.2
-0.2 +0.2
-0.2
0.0 +5.1
-2,8 +11.4
-2,0 +0.5
-6,0 +5.5
0.0 +10.0 +11.1
-5.3
-7.8 +18.0
..do
64
.
Nov.
to
Dec.
1963
Feb. Mar.
to
to
Mar. Apr*
-1.4
-22.3
+4.5
-7.5
-16.0
+2.9
+20.3
+0.1
+7.8
+4.1
-2.7
-3.8
+0.1
-2.4 +12.2
-0,7
0.0
-1.5
-0.8
-2.1
0.0
+6.5
+1.3
-2.2
NA
-69.4 +41.2
-3.8
+4.0
-36.3
+U.3
-0.7
-0.8
-0.1
+2.4
+2.4 -35.0
+1.8
-1.2
+1*5
-0.4
+4.7
+2.0
+19.3
-18.0
-15.0
-1.5
+19.2
+8.6
+8.7 +11.9
+4.6
-0.7
+0.5
-32,4
-4.8
+2.5
-3^2
+1.0
+6.9
+4J
+3^9
-1.0
+1.3
-0.2
+1.8
+0.2
-1.9
-5.7
+5 0
+0.2
-l.A
+2 8
-1,6
NA
-0.7
-0.1
+1.6
+0,4
-0.1
-0.7
+0.1
NA
+2.3
+8.9
-2,0
-4.2
+4.3
-A. 2 +6 5 +16.3
+5.8
-5.5
-1.9
-2.0 +10.0
00
00
.
+0.37 -0,34
+1.0 +1,6
0 0 +/ o
-0.1
+0.3
-1.9
+3 8 +11 1
-3.3
-0.4
-4.2
-6.7
+0.4
+3.8
-4.1
+1.0
-1,0
+3.1
00
.
-0.5
-0.1
+5.2
-7.9
+2.3| -2.4
+0.9
-3.9
-6.4
-1.9
+0.49 +0.43 +0.21 +0.81
-0.6
-0.4 -0.7
-0.3
-0.1
+0.1
+A 0
-1.8
-0.61
+0.1
-0.21
+0.7
+0.4
+0.4
+0.3
+0.6
-5.5 +8.2
-6.0 +13.4
+0.4
-1.1
+3.7
-0.3
-4.6
0.0
+6.4
+8.2
+1.7
+1.8
«7.8
31
Analytical Measures
Table 2.-RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0,6.
Series
1962
Avg.
Measure change,
of
Sept. Oct.
change 1948- to
to
19611
Oct. Nov.
1963
Nov.
to
Dec.
Dec.
to
Jan.
Jan,
to
Feb.
Feb.
to
Mar.
Mar.
to
Apr*
Apr.
to
May
May
to
June2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS— Con.
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
Percent , . 3.3
1.2
..do
Index of industrial production
3
1.4
Gross national product in 1954 dol. 3
1.9
Gross national product in cur. dol. .,..do
1.6
..do
Final sales (series 49 minus 21)3
.
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers....do.. . . 1.6
0.7
..do
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing,
..do,... . 1.1
and construction
1.6
..do
55. Index of wholesale prices except farm
0.3
..do
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant
3.6
do
62, Index of labor cost per unit of
0.7
. .do
63. Index of labor cost per unit of out1.0
..do
put total GNP3 * . . . .
64. Book value of mfrs,1 inventories, all
0.9
..do
65. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
1.0
finished goods, all mfg. industries.. ..do
1.2
..do
67. Bank rates on short-term business
3.0
. . do
loans 19 cities3
47.
50
49,
57.
51.
-2.0
+0.9
+1.7
+1.0
-4.3
+1.1
..
.
+4.0
+0.4
+3.1
+0.8
+1.0
+1.5
+1.1
-2.9
-0.3
+0.4
+0.5
+5.0
+0.7
-2.2
+0.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
+0.2
+0.6
+0.5
+0.6
+0.1
+1.2
0.0
+0.7
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.3
+0.3
-0.7
-0.4
+2.4
+0.1
+4.6
+0.5
-0.9
+0.3
+1.3
+1.5
+1.5
+0.5
+0.6
-1.1
+0.5
0.0
+0.6
0.0
+2.1
0.0
-0.1
+4.3
-0.5
+1.1
-0.5
5
+3.9
-2.6
-1.0
+0.6
-0.6
+0.8
-0.4
-2.0
+1,0
-0.7
m
m
+0.4
-0.7
+0.2
-0.2
+0.3
+0.2
+0.3
+0.3
+0.5
00
.
+0.8
+0.4
+1.3
+0.9
+1.0
+1.1
0.0
0,0
+0.9
+0.9
+0.8
+0.4
+1.1
+0.6
NA
-0.4
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86. Exports, excluding military aid ship-
3.7 -23.2 +13.6 +8.5 -46.6 +116.9 -6.6 -3.7
3.5 -10.7 +8.6 -4-2 -20.3 +36,6 -0.6 -4.1
Mil. dol.58.6 -293.0 +89.6 +203.5 -578.1 +748.5 -130.9 -11.7
..do
NA
NA
NA
(39. Excess of receipts or payments in
+7 '9
.
+0.2
-437
-3.3
+1.1
+0.4
0.0
+i!3
+9.9
-2.6
+0.9
+3.0
-1,5
+3.5
-8.5
+5.1
-0.5
-2.8 +12.3 -13.4
+2.2
+5.6
+74,1
+23.8
-0.2
-0.5
-2.8 -41.8 +69^5 -29.1 -16.7 +24.6
+0.5 -23.4 +24.6 -14.1 -11.3 +12.2
NA
NA
29.2
+37.8
+2.1 -U.3 +35.9 +11.9 -19.3
-17.2
NA
0.22
..do
Mil. dol. 138
Percent . . 0.3
81 . Index of consumer prices
..
94, Index 1 of construe, contracts, total... . .do* . . 8.3
2.1
96, Mfrs. unfilled orders, dur. goods..., . .do
3
..do
97, Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg. .
6.3
98. Change in money supply including time
..do
deposits*
01
.9
+0.41
+44
0.0
+3.5
-0.4
0.00 +0.13 -0.14 -0.61 +0.27 +0.14 -0.34
+42
-63
-29
-84
+54 -205 +116
NA
0.0 +0.1 -0.1
0.0 -0.1
+0.4
NA
+5.1 +12.2 -12.3 +7.4 -9.2 +5.9
-1.2
-0.1 +0.9 +1.4 +3.2 +1.8 +1.3
NA
+7.2
332
..do
82. Federal cash payments to the public... Percent . .7.2
&3. Federal cash receipts from the public. ..do..,.* 7.5
Ann. rate,
bil.dol, 5.7
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income
3.2
..do
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. Percent . .
25.4
15.6
. .do
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
-1,2
-13
-8.7
+1.9
92 . Military prime contract awards to
8i>. Change in money supply excluding time
+0.38 +0.07 +0.12
-0.05
-0.54 +0.28 -0.20 -0.08
x
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
among the series, beginning with the earliest date shown in chart 1 and ending on the date a revision or new seasonal
3
adjustment made new computations feasible.
Percentage changes cover part of this period only.
Qiarterly series;
figures show change from previous quarter and are placed in middle month of quarter. Thus the figure for GNP (series 49)
shewn in the Oct.-Nov. column refers to the change from the 3rd quarter of 1962 to the 4th quarter of 1962.
^Figures
3
are the month-to-month (quarter-to-quarter) differences in the figures shown in table 1.
Anticipated. Percent
change from 2nd quarter to 3rd quarter, based on anticipated data is +4.0.
Analytical Measures
32
Table 3..-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
timber of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
July
1953
3d month before business cycle peak
May
1960
July
1957
Aug.
1948
Apr.
1953
Feb.
1960
Apr.
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7
1
3
1
12
1
4
1
4 months **..*.*.
22
1
2
2
11
1
14
2
1
3
2
1
*1
4
1
3
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
*18
0
2
19
16
23
0
23
0
X
18
0
3
4
•• •
2
2
3
1
20
1
1
12
1
23
0
1
4
19
21
2
1
2
1
3
2
1
23
4
1
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
2
*• *
1
1
1
3
3
7 months
5 months * »
*»...*.
1
5
11
9
11
27
11
45
11
27
Benchmark month
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was- reached
1
*2
3
3
2 months
1
2
2
2
3
*• *
2
3
4
1
2
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
.* •
**4
4
11
36
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
Jan.
1953
i
2
3
3
11
27
3
6
11
55
Current expansion
6th month before business cycle peak
May
1948
1
4
4
11
36
i
» **
Feb.
1963
Mar.
1963
Apr.
1963
May
1963
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7 months
5 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
•..*
Number of series used
•
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
6
1
2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
17
1
1
1
19
16
23
4
4
2
2
2
1
2
^6
8
1
1
*i
4
4
4
2
4
1
2
2
23
9
15
"i
"i
2
"4
23
17
13
"i
"i
2
"2
4
23
17
12
1
"i
"i
9
2
6
23
26
"2
2
3
16
19
2
2
2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
1
1
«•«
6 months ..*.*•.*..*»....*...,..........*.
5 months
2
"2
4
2
4
2
2
3
11
27
1
2
4
11
36
**2
2
1 month
Number of series used
».,
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
..*
1
5
.2
3
6
11
45
11
55
5
3
11
27
"i
"6
11
55
i
6
11
55
2
5
11
45
All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from the distribution.
1
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.
Analytical Measures
33
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
percentage
Dl. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (21 indus,)
[3-mo. interval ]
Expanding
-MOO
D6. New orders, dur. goods Indus. (21 Indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]
Oil. Newly approved .capital appropriations:';'./
602 cos. [4-quarter interval ]
.-— 15 indus. [1 -quarter interval ]
D33. ProfitsVChicago PAA, percent reporting !
higher profits (200 cos.) [1-mo. interval]£
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
higher profits (700 cos.) [1-quarter interval]
•• v/yiv^fv
4Sp
•?<
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (82 indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]
D23. Industrial materials prices (13 indus. mtls.)
[3-mo. interval]
;
D5. Initial claims, State unempl. Jnsur.
(47 areas)--!nverted
[3-mo. interval 3
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1959
1960
1961 1962 1963
Analytical Measures
| CHART 2 |
(Nov.)
p
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
"il
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
T
T
Percentage
Expanding
(May) (F»b.)
(July) (Apr.)
P ......T_
(Aug.)
P
(Oct.)
P
7
D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (30 indus.)
[1-mo. interval]
D47. Industrial production (24 indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]
D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods (23 indus.)
[1-mo. interval]
D54. Sates of retail stores (24 types of stores)
[3-mo. interval]
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
Analytical Measures
35
CHART 3 M DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
(Nov.)
f
Percentage
Expanding
(Oct.)
T
Actual
Anticipated
Change in total carload ings
D35. Net sates, all mfrs. (800 cos.)
[4-quarter interval]
D36. New orders, dur. goods mfrs. (400 cos.)
[4-quorter interval]
D48. Car loadings (19 mfrd. commodity groups)
[4-quarter interval ]
D61. New plant and equipment expend. (17-22 indus.)
[^quarter interval ]
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
1961 1962
Data are centered within intervals. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, 036 (April 1963)
048 (December 1962)
D61 (May 1963)
Latest interval shown
Actual
1st Q 1962 - 1st Q 1963
1st Q 1961- 1st Q 1962
4th Q 1962- 1st Q 1963
Anticipated
3rd Q 1962- 3rd Q 1963
1st Q 1962- 1st Q 1963
2nd Q 1963 - 3rd Q 1963
*lncrease of 500,000 carloadings plotted at 100; no change at 50; decrease of 500,000 carloadings at 0.
1963
Analytical Measures
36
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; ^-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, 823, and EQ3, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table' 6 Identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading indexes
Year and
month
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers*
new orders, durable goods
industries (21 industries)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
21.4
19.0
35-7
38.1
78.6
19.0
40.5
26.2
19.0
78.6
16.7
7.1
31.0
7.1
21.4
66.7
54.8
69.0
16.7
14.3
23.8
9.5
2.4
14.3
28.6
61,9
14.3
57.1
54.8
28.6
38.1
71.4
33.3
28.6
61.9
28.6
57.1
28.6
85.7
78.6
69.0
83-3
50.0
90.5
40,5
42.9
38.1
69.0
78.6
38,1
54,8
95.2
90.5
8l.O
92.9
69.0
78.6
45.2
78.6
8l.o
81,0
21.4
52.4
47.6
78.6
52.4
59-5
57.1
59.5
73.8
57-1
57.1
57-1
28.6
33.3
90.5
76.2
8l.O
61.9
66.7
76.2
61.9
61.9
61.9
42.9
47.6
11.9
78.6
76.2
92.9
26.2
38.1
28.6
33.3
71.4
7.1
71.4
57.1
19.0
61.9
95-2
85.7
76.2
23.8
19-0
35.7
33.3
42.9
26.2
52.4
71.4
57-1
45.2
50.0
42.9
38.1
81.0
33-3
33.3
71.4
54.8
38.1
42.9
61.9
42.9
61.9
38,1
52.4
52.4
42.9
52.4
61.9
52.4
47.6
21.4
88.1
r42.9
r38.1
P71.4
57.1
r57.1
r54-8
p6l.9
57.1
61.9
r57.1
r6l.9
P59.5
52.4
rSl.O
r66.7
P76.2
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations
a. 602 com- b. 15 industries
panies
4 -quarter
interval
1-quarter
Interval
1960
March
April
. ..
..
Nfev
June
July
October. ...*.*.
47.6
42.9
50.0
28.6
52.4
38.1
52,4
26.2
35-7
42.9
56.7
44
33.3
40
23.3
40
66,7
48
1961
February
March
April, .'
May
July
August
October
46.7
5^
53-3
58
70.0
64
56.7
52
1962
March
April
ffey
July
August
October . . . .
....
66.7
54
26.7
52
80.0
48
60.0
D33. Profits,
Chicago PAA
(200
companies )
1-month
Interval
46
36
40
44
42
44
39
3*.
34
3
i
28
30
27
31
37
46
50
48
42
51
50
47
50
44
48
49
50
52
52
48
40
46
*5
42
44
43
1963
February
March
April
Mav
(NA)
46
46
45
46
50
Analytical Measures
37
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within Intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered In the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed In the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in Indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the Index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. t( r" Indicates revised; "p% preliminary.
NBER Leading Indexes — Continued
D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices,
mfg., FNCB
500 common stocks
(around 700
(80 industries)1
corporations )
Year and
month
1 -quarter
interval
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 Industrial materials)
1 -month
interval
3 -month
interval
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22nd
(47 areas)
1-month
interval
3-month
Interval
1960
52
March
April
Hfey
40
July
45
August* *
October
November
December. . . .
...
1961
47
47
February
March
April
60
Ifey
June
58
July
AUPUH*. . ~ , * . * . T
56
October
rtee*»niber . , T - -T ,
28.5
11.2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75.9
32.9
76.5
15-3
23.5
89-4
80.7
27.1
11.8
27,6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63,5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8
69.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46,2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8
34.0
54.8
10.6
47.9
38.3
37.2
55.3
17.0
68.1
42.6
36.2
53.2
83.3
26.2
40.5
14.9
29.8
38.3
19.1
34.0
21.3
45.7
36.2
46.8
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45-7
87.8
56.1
96,3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55.5
62.2
72.6
52.4
38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.5
30.8
65-4
46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
.46.2
57.7
59.6
31.9
80.9
40.4
48.9
58.5
5L1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
23.4
46.8
68.1
61.7
66.0
53.2
61.7
68.1
61.7
80.9
87.2
72.3
40.4
26.2
74*4
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34-8
6.7
98.8
84.8
39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1
31.1
72.6
90.2
98.8
73.1
34-6
46.2
38.5
53.8
23.1
30.8
42.3
50.0
57.7
69.2
37.5
61.5
53.8
42.3
50.0
42.3
42.3
23.1
23.1
42.3
65.4
79.2
62.5
57.4
83.0
46.8
46.8
40.4
14.9
68.1
57.4
44.7
46.8
72.3
27.7
57.4
85.1
67.0
34-0
14.9
40.4
44.7
70.2
55.3
51.1
46.8
27.7
97.6
79.3
43.8
91.2
85.0
97.6
93.8
91.2
90.0
53.3
66.7
46.2
53.8
50.0
2
57.7
50.0
58.3
50.0
53.8
2
38.5
36.2
87.2
47.9
44.7
48.9
55.3
66.0
68.1
34.0
1962
54
March
47
Apr ill
May,.
junei
.
48
October. . . . .
...
November
56
July
August
1963
January
February
tferch
April
May
June ,».
50
1
The diffusion index is based on 86 components through January I960; on 85 components, February I960 to November I960;
on 82 components, December I960 to February 1963; and on 80 components thereafter. 19 components and 5 composites,
representing an additional 22 components, are shown in the direction-of-change table (table 6C).
8
June 17, 1963.
Analytical Measures
38
Toble 4.-DIFFVSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Contlnu*!
Numbers are centered within Intervals: 1-month figures are placed on lateat month; 3-oonth figure are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the let month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, 019, D83, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. "rw indicates revised; »p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indexes
D41. Number of employees
In nonagrlcultural establishments (30 industries)
Year and
month
D47. Index of Industrial
production
(24 Industries)
D54, Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
D58* Index of
wholesale
prices (23
mfg. Indus.)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
1-month
interval
75.0
43.8
41*7
68.3
66.7
66.7
41.7
20.8
20.8
16.7
12.5
20.8
6.
88
50.0
45.8
79.2
1.
46
6.
04
50.0
41.7
50.0
62.5
37.5
31.2
37.5
4.
79
79.2
54*2
62.5
20.8
45.8
41.7
45.8
45.8
43.8
a. 7
60*3
45*6
56.8
4.
67
4.
04
4.
54
39.6
32.5
32.0
3.
69
32.5
4.
67
45.8
52.1
66.7
83.3
77.1
91.7
79.2
83.3
45.8
72.9
83.3
56.3
37.5
62.5
81.3
83.3
87.5
83.3
100.0
79.2
79.2
75.0
87.5
45.8
58.3
43.8
79.2
27.1
4.
38
79.2
a. 7
6.
88
33.3
79.2
6.
67
45.8
35.4
7.
29
4.
38
58.3
54.2
7.
08
83.3
35.4
75.0
70.8
8.
96
7.
08
3.
86
41.3
5.
46
59,7
4.
91
51.9
5.
04
52.1
55.9
r39.0
r39.0
r51.1
6.
00
75.0
91.7
88.3
8.
00
6.
83
55.0
25.0
25.0
16.7
26.7
28.3
20.8
79.2
72.9
62.5
75.0
6.
04
68.8
54.2
6.
46
27.1
54.2
33.3
41.7
66.7
87.5
79.2
66.7
79.2
62.5
72.9
37.5
47.9
39.6
r62.5
62.5
60.4
62.5
6.
04
3.
96
20.8
83.3
56.2
50.0
29.2
85.4
52.1
6.
04
70*8
91.7
81.2
39.6
37.5
62.5
8.
12
41.7
70.8
68.8
87.5
66.8
r43.5
r61.1
r46.7
6.
86
47.6
33.0
r30.3
38.5
r39.0
43.4
r35.9
43.3
56.7
90.0
p91.7
r66.7
r68.8
r75.0
r64.6
P79.2
r52.1
r87.5
r89.6
P83.3
50.0
54.2
58.3
r35.4
p62.5
50.0
r54.2
r4l.7
50.0
P
38.6
39.1
50.3
r42,3
P75.1
1-month
Interval
3-month
Interval
1-month
interval
56.7
83.3
53.3
55.0
50.0
30.0
35.0
30.0
21.7
3.
00
20.0
11.7
80.0
81.7
6.
67
58.3
4.
00
38.3
25.0
25.0
30.0
23.3
15.0
1.
67
70.8
20.8
58.3
39.6
75.0
54.2
39.6
45.8
25.0
33.3
27.1
20.8
33.3
33.3
75.0
6.
67
85.0
86.7
58.3
53.3
36.7
65.0
7.
00
53.3
11.7
4.
17
6.
00
83.3
9.
00
83.3
83.3
4.
67
50.0
63.3
68.3
53.3
33.3
81.7
81.7
9.
00
7.
00
63.3
4.
83
4.
00
30.0
48.3
28.3
41.7
30.0
63.3
r85.0
r76.7
p81.7
3-month
Interval
I960
March
April
htev.
July
August ..*.«•»*.
October
December* ••*.**
1961
January. . . . .
...
March,
April
July
August
*
October
November
1962
March
April
May
July
September*
October *....»•*
November
December
1963
April
Mav
June
Analytical Measures
39
TobU 5.-DIFFUS10N INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within Intervale: n n
4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. r indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
( 0 companies)
40
4-quarter
interval
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Tear and
month
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
D48. Freight carload ings
( 9 manufactured
1
commodity groups )
4-quarter
interval
b61. Nev plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1 -quarter
interval
75.0
84*4
71 .
9
71.9
56.2
71.9
34.4
43.8
28.1
37,5
46.9
53.1
62.5
59.4
65.6
65.6
62.5
68.8
68.8
65.6
65.6
46.9
Antici- Change in
pated total (000)
Anticipated
68.8
40.6
Actual
Actual
56.2
Anticipated
50.0
196Q
61
82
58
76
31.6
68.4
+96
53
74
51
68
31.6
78.9
-103
50
70
50
68
21 a
50.0
-279
60
68
62
68
26.3
42.1
-212
February* . . * t T ferch
April
72
82
72
78
36.8
89.5
-28
fey
74
83
73
78
68.4
73.7
*79
82
88
82
86
,87.5
89.5
+125
81
86
78
82
89.5
+&,
80
88
76
84
94.7
-67
fey,..,,
76
80
74
74
89.5
-96
July...
Auttiftti . 1***.**
72
74
71
70
68.4
-66
82
76
.(Ha)
r+10
80
76
feroh
April.*..
fey
July
AllPURt
September •*.**•
November.*.....
December
1961
June i t * * * * * * * * *
July. .
.
August « « . . * * t « t
September
(NA)
1962
February. . * .
...
torch...
April.
December .*..*..
1%3
fepch, ...
April
fey
r75.0
^S.l
1
3rd quarter 1963.
Tobl. 6.-MRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPEOFiED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: KJLY 1*0 TO PRESENT
A.-(D1) Avmgt Wotfcw«* of Prodi»ctio« fforic**, *»wfoch»ri»Q
3-M>nth spans
1962
1960
1961
HfHl
21 industry cooponents
g A h ^ x g i H s p a . - p g o
0. & §
9 a % 3 -5 oS
*? W 9
Percent rising. ..**.. . . - . . r t . . . T . T , . ,*.......,
All wftnu*'ft<%turing industries ..*.. ............
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Ordnance, and accessories
fjQ 17 I / O/ m
•*•
0
9
U CC QC TU oi V^ oy «7Q 45 «TQ ol ol
D5 7? Oft ai QO fjQ r$ / C /" OT ftl
1963
i!!!!l!!!ll!liltll
a
T O Ao OC oo *?A o/ 1
*aA ^o /
o/L 52 57 57 55 O2
AT t>2 V5 fiA 7o 24 1"Q 3o 33 4^^ 2o SO C*7 CTI KC AO
• * • - - -
o o + -*•-*•
Stone, clay, and glass products
Prinnry n?tal products • ........ . . * . . * . . . . . * * ••
Fabricated Metal products
+ - . « _ _
tfechinery, except electrical
+ 0 - + - - - + + + 0 + - + - + + +
Electrical nachinery
. _ + -f •+
_ - - - • » •
o + •*• o -
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
0
ppod and kindred products * . * . . . . . . . . * * .
Tobacco BAiHifflctux^s
Textile sill products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
+ - - - - o - - - - •f - . . . . - - * * - - « - - + - - o
• * - - - - - _
Leather and leather products
+ * rising; o = unchanged; - - falling.
-
+
+
-
- - - - • * •
o + •**•*• *
°
0
+
0
* •*• *
-
o * + **•
+ +
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
•$.
n"
TobU 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Contio,^
B.-CD5) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, D>-tbie Goods Industries
ja
i*
i*
li1J
o » 3
a a «-»
i
nvj\i Hill I l l f i i
luh
f l l rl
13 J
I A
t
£ $i
»
0
S -S fa fe b
0 0 » 3 <D
0 SB Q t? BM
1
A.
&
! |
a!
Feb-fey
a
<s a
i. o
1& o
1%3
1962
1961
Oct-Jan
»ov-Feb
t'
III
Jul-Oct
1960
21 industry components
3-month spans
29 52 38 52 26 36 43 33 90 76 81 62 67 76 62 62 62 43 48 43 62 43 62 38 52 52 43 52 62 52 48 52 81 67 76
--
Electrical generator apparatus*
- + + + - + . . + .
-
- +
+
+
+ - +
O
+ +•'
.: \
- ..
+
—
* + +
- - . * + - • * • • * • + + + - + . . ..
Aircraft
•»• -
*
•*•
- -*•
Household appliances
+ + + + .+
.;::!!
>
-»• +
•*•
-*• +
+
C
+
+ -
•»•
-
+
+ •«•
+ * rising; o - unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
"Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Includes durable goods industries not available separately.
o
«»
01
Table 6.-D1RECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continwed
C.-(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
3-month spans
1961
1960
24 industry components1
S g
3 < op 8- «* & |§ S LS4 sS* . J '' - § »3- 3 ' < &OS 2g; M 7
5P o
<S >
s
w i
a p
1
7
3
1963
1962
)
* a s &7
^ a <. ^ § ^l aSP ?& «'^ a i ^ ^ ^ l !
o s j
C
^3
h
h
>»
C
i i i ^ i i i i j i i .
o o j p 3 o o j c x a j 3 d ^ a > o o a > a j < D J 3 a 5 j 3 3 : 3 < D o o <p 3 a> jiJ
*U S »-j ^ << w O S Q ^ f e Z ^ S ^ ^ o J C O O S Q * r > ( i , S < S ! ' - j * - 3 < ! a 3 0 a Q t-a fr* 35
a £ 9 U 9 8
Pprcpnt rising^ - . - ,
500 stock prices •
T,.*.,....TT,-,..,.
Mining and smelting
Coal, bituminous
Pood composite
Textile weavers ••
4 ^ >
0
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating.
••* ••*
„ o
—
+
-
_
-
*•
JO
^
51 64 39 36 £2 76 QA Q6 Q6 Q*i Q/ 71 *%7 *ift *;*% *»A ^>9 7^ *\5 / n ^ft ^*^ r» i
- + _ -
•••••••••
d
-
-
-
_
-
^
>»
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance.
rH
t)0
O,
-P
>
o
d ^6
6
T ft AT IT T\ on QQ QSt Q/ QT QH
yv Vo V4 91 "u
_
_
.
-
+
-»-
_
_
+
-1- + NA m NA
—
_
_
-
_
_
+
+ 4-
_
—
+ + +•
+ -*• -t-
u. •+•
O*
^
.
o •*•
+ •*• + + - * - - - -
- —
-i.
+
j_
-4-
A
-^
_ . +
g
o
c
HI
CA
-
O -
-
-
-
- - - + - - - - + +
+ +
"*"+
+
+
+
+ = rising; o * unchanged; - = falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted. NA Not available.
1
The 24 components shown here include 19 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 22 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index.
2
Based on 85 industries, July 1 6 to November 1 6 , on 82 industries December to February 1 3 and on 80 industries thereafter.
90
90
%,
>
H-*
- - - - - _ _ -
Automobiles
Cj
Tdfe ^.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERSES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-ContiniMd
D.-(023) lml*x of Industrioi Motariols Prices
3-Bonth spans
1961
i *i JiUi
O K Q ^ » ^ X - * < X
\\
A <
UJ
&i i
g s s -S i
i i ?H!ii$ £ % * M & \kift
g
Oct-Jan
o
a 4l3l£l2f
Oct-Jan
» *•»
1%3
1962
Jun-Sep
Jul-Oct
HiII
X -P
Aug-Nov
1960
13 Industrial Materials components
a o ^ &M a? <
*
46 38 58 35 42 15 31 46 77 73 81 58 50 54 69 69 42 46 58 62 54 42 50 42 42 23 23 42 65 79 62 50 58 50 54 38
All industrial owterlals . .
..
...
—
4
- -
>
4
>
+
4 - 4
+
>
—
—
4 - 4 - 4 > -
4-
4-
-
- -.
444-
Tin (Ib.)
Zinc (Ib.)
*».
o o o o
0
:
o o o '4-
4-
4
-
O
-
-
-
O
O
O
O
O
O
+
0
o
-
4-
*
0 0 0
+
W.
•%
Wool tops (Ib.)
n"
Hides (Ib.)
Rosin (100 lt>.)
Rubber (Ib.)
+
Tnllnu fife \
.-
rising; o = unchanged; - « falling.
for June 17, 1963.
>
. 4- 4-
4- +
-
Series components are not seasonally adjusted*
o
0
0
O
O
O
O
0
MA Not available.
O
- 4-
O
O
O
O
4-
-
-
-
- -
o o o o
s
1
Table ^.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continues
E.—(D5) initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
3-month spans
II
1961
1960
Oj (H
26 area components
r-J
p
O «H
,O (0
U)
3
O,
0>
-P
O
>
O
0
JP
§
1963
1962
^ ^ . ^ > > C ! r - ) b O a ^ P > 0
< D ^ a S s p p p a ) o o ( »
fijp
0) <D
^
Ol
^ >>tir-ft)pCl«-P
O* rf 3
P P 0) U
> 0
O J >
7 1 < ? < ? = ? 1 T ^^ o^gl ^f i^^ T lC 0r ?H?t ^ 'o ?a 7 >»>l uf d^j 1 !h ? -7i 7 « d< f fH«t ? oT i
^
^
J
^
&
f
> 1
i
( X
o o
S
f l O
3 o O
P
j
«
(
O
<
I I I I I 1 O » «a t >- » 6a t>« 1S o; < z ! ^ . ' i~ |3p- ^ c Q O K O » « s 3 x («DSJ <J < -3 JG -P a ^3' ^3C ©
3
)
§ « a & & §
*? ^ =? 1 f 7
+J > 0 g jf> (-.
O
a
Q
HJ
fe
35
38 19 34 21 46 36 47 47 68 62 66 53 62 68 62 81 87 72 40 57 85 67 34 15 40 45 70 55 51 47 28 55 66 68 34
NORTHEAST REGION
7
16 Buffalo*
11 Newark
\ New York
21 Pater son. • .
4 Philadelphia*
g pi tt sburph * *
?1 Providence**
- + _ +
-
_ + + + -
.......
.• *
+
•¥
—
—
+
_ + - f - t - _ _ . + + + + --
+ + +
t
+
+ - + -
+ t +
NOHTH CENTRAL REGION
>—.
O
3
18 Cincinnat i
10
26
5
25 Indianapolis
22 Kansas City
15 Milwaukee
13 Minneapolis
9 St Louis
—
-
+
-
+
-
+
_
+
*
+
•*••*•
-i-
-J-
--*•
_
-
+
-J-
+
+
-
+
-
+
+•
+
+
+ + ~
—
+ -
*-_--*-
-
. .+
+ .
+
.
+
.
-
+
+
+
+
- - * - +
— -
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
•*-
+
—
—
+•
—
—
+
-
+
-fr-4=
—
—
— + — + — - * -
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+"
—
•*•-*•
SOOTH REGION
20
Atlanta
.
..
.
. .
12
17 Dallas
14 Houston
+ + + + + +
WEST REGION
2
24 Portland • • •
6
19 Seattle
•
......
.«.*
•*
_
-
+ - - + _
+
_
- - • * - + —
+
•*-•!•+
-•*•
+
- = rising; o ~ unchanged; + = falling. Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the nonth. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
*Denotes areas of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in May 1 6 as designated by BBS.
93
**Denotes areas of substantial (6 percent or isore) and persistent unemployment in Kay 1 3 as designated by BES.
%
percent rising is based on 47 labor Market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26,
^<
r»
£
n
Tobie 6.»DiRECTiON OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
F.-(D41) Number of Employees in Nona gri cultural Establishments
1-month spans
1961
H
bo o* -P
>
o §
JQ
*H
fn
>>
C
1962
r-j
bJ3
CX
-P
t>
0
> O O JP
O
2 5 5 8 £ a * , « * * • * | [| K3 «
| i
i A 4 i i
5,1«1 W OO «O
<D
1 t-3 << CO O !3 a >? £ 4 * S *~3 ^"3 ^ i. ^ J5
-3 % & S £
^
Percent rising
.0
<D
h
e&
fc. S
A J
I fi
1963
§
^
•3 S. b- § ^ ? §• « S i
i: < u S ^ » - j 5 c Q O S : 3
IH ^ C r H
dOO.-P
>
0
a^ < «< aa
ti J t f 3 p ^ < D O O < P
*f
7
f
?
JQ
£
A
4
h
S
^
«£
fc t>a Q
3 t 3
i i t
* 5*5
35 30 22 30 20 12 33 33 75 67 85 87 58 53 37 65 70 53 33 82 82 90 70 63 -48 40 30 48 28 42 30 63 85 77 82
o
-----
*
uranance an accessories
Dec-Jah
1960
30 industry components
,
+
+
0
O +
0
o + o + +
-
- -
0
+
-
+
O
O
H
•h
0
-
Hi-
_ _ _ _ _ _
Primary metal products
Tobacco manufactures
T*3v4 -I T A mi 1 1 rvw\Hii /»+ o
o •*•
-
+
-
-
0
+ +
o
-
+ - + + +
+
::;:!:
+_++_.
•f
-*•
+ o-*- +
+
+ -
oo-
+
+
+
+
o + + +
0
+
__
o o o
+
_ o +
-
-
0
-
+
o - -
+
HH
-
+
-
o - - - - o o - o - - -
-
o + o o + +
+ -
-
0
o
+
0
+
+ o c
o -
0 +
Min-intr
+
-
+
O <
+ H
+ ~ih
o -
- • * • - - -
t- o + -
+
o -
o
-
+
+
o
-
- +
o o o o - o - -
o - o
( - - - - + Hh - J - _ - _ _
•»-.+
-»* + +
+ + +
+ + +
+ - _ - _
+
-
Hr
-
-*-
-
+ +
-
o -
-
- - + + +
-
0
+
+
0 - - + - + - - +
+ +
+ -*•
Federal government
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
+
0
+
+
+
-
+
0
0
-
-
+ - + + +
o + o
+
o
Hh
+
+
+ - -
_ +
+
+ o +
+
+ -*---
Retail trade
+
D
n
to
+
- + - o - -
H! - - * - - * -
+
-
-
-
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber products
o
0
-
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
+
+
+
-
-
+ o +
-
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
0
+
o
i
Table 6.~DIRECTK)N OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPAMS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY I960 TO PRESEHT..Continued
G - D 7 Imfex of Mvslrial Production
,(4)
i-month spans
1961
1960
24 industry components
H
P
ttt
3
Q. -P
t>
o
>
o
0
»
7 1 <?<?=? ?
S
, O ^ ^ > k C r - 1 t « A - P > C
e « i c x * 3 d ^ < D o o »
lll|i|lini!
§ a ? s- ^ § Q ^ a f e S ^ S ^ ' - j ^ W O S ;
KJ
i->
<<
09 o
SS
1963
1962
C
X»
IHI
h
>>
C
r-l
M
CX -^>
>
0
S ^ |
^ £ 3 S - a l i 3 3 S S 5 .7 t 5 t 1 S.7$
i l J . i i i i J i i . i i 0 C JO fci ^ >%
a l £ ^ 5 - 5 l l l 5 S S 4 ,? tf 5 5* 5
§
Percent rising*. ............................. 40 46 25 33 2? 21 46 52 67 83 77 92 79 83 46 73 83 56 21 79 73 62 75 60 69 54 65 27 54 33 67 69 75 65 79
DURABLE GOODS
Primary and fabricated metals
F&bricated metal products
hbchinery and related products
•
••
+ + - - - -
_ - » - - . + 0
-
-
+
— + - —
TjimKAt* ATV^ products
Furniture and miscellaneous
-
-
*<
*»^
_ _
—
+
—
+
•+
*4*
+
A
«
o"
u>
— +
..„..*
+
- NA
- - - - - NONDURABLE GOODS
Textile, apparel, and leather
* +
4-
-
-
_
_
-
!t*++*t+!+t+
+
_
p-* _A £ _ _ fl— J
+
+
-
^
-
+
. +
- H - -
-H
-
* Wl
•1- •*- * -HI
fwWl fctlf TUT
•*- +
+ -I- + + Hi
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
-
-
0 +
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- - - * • -
+
• * • - -
-•*•
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
_
_
+
.^
Foods, beverages, and tobacco.*..
-
Tobacco Droducts
MDSRALS
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal vining. ,....,,.
..... ...
- + + » Hi
....
.... .
—
4-
—
+
+
- + - + - - 1 - - + - + +
+
+
•+•
_ - - - + + -
-
*
+ + + +
+ — " t - - t - + — -j- — — —
—
-h-*--t-
+
—
+
•$•
+
—
—
-*-
—
+
+
—
0
Hi ifi
-*•
+
—
•*•
—
—
4- * rising; o * unchanged; - * falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
1U = Hot airailable.
1
The direction of change is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industry
are used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Gmtmued
H.-(D54) Sales of Retail Stores
3-month spans
1960
24 retail store components
rH
3
ttf
3
<*J
Z
& -P
<D O
1961
>
O
O
<D
•-a <t 05 o a Q
4 i 3 4 2 0
o< *• ^ p i *•
»"3
"3
-< CO
1963
1962
iliJIIIfll!!
£ . 0 ^
FH
> » g H t i o a < p
>
o
rt ja t a ^* §
21 46 42 46 46 44 42 35 73 44 58 54 71 83 35 75 71 90 71 60 71 92 81 40 38 62 81 42 71 69 88 50 54 42 50
A1 1 T»O+ 0*1 T oal oo
Grocery stores
+
- - - + _
_ + + + _ _ + + _ , _ _
_. + + + + + _ . . +
_ „ _
Eating places
+ + .+ +
+
_ + _
_
1
It!!!" "
.+.+._
Variety stores
Women' s apparel stores
F^Eunilv apparel stores
F^wn i t tire s tore s
S^TM* Ce a . T
-
+ +
•f
+ + +
- + + - - +
— +
— +
— + -<-— +
•$•
+ + +
— "t~
o
+ +
-
j_
T
Q
_
+
-*-
+
+
+
-
*
-
-
-
-
_
+
+
-
-
_
•+•
+
-»-
-
+
-
_
O
+
s ore
-*-
+
-
+
_
+
_
+
_
+
- - - - + +
+ + .+ o +
, . . ,
-
-
O -
+
+
+ - - +
-+
-
+ + + + + + + + +
+
+
+
-4-
o
— o
0
.
— "t~
+
O
O
+
*i~
"h
+
_ _J_
+
-
-
+ _
,
_
a.
_
+
-j-
+
—
—
—
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
D
I"
V)
C
M
O
en
Cyclical Patterns
48
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
I M1|M M I| |(
• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 * Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 * Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
> May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
Reference trough dates
Index
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and Indus.
bldgs. 2
105 r-
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.
100*
*100
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg. |
- 130
1
24. Mfrs, new order*,
mach. and equip. Indus.
- 120
- no
100*
J 90
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
*Roference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of T or "2", the figure for the reference peak Is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100*. MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for thin month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
2
For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles a 3-term moving average is shown.
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4 h
49
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov.
• July
July
- May
Index
1948 • Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
1953 • Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
1957 • Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1960 * present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
i i I i I 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I T I I ITT I
150
Reference* High dates
140
13. New business incorporations
17. Price per unit of
labor cost
130
120
100*
110
MOO
90 L
180
170
23. Industrial materials
prices
160
150
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
100*
140
130
120
110
MOO
-J70
90
80
1 I I 1 i I I i l 11 i
-12.
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
I M I I t I I I I I I I 11 I 1 1 I t I 1 I I I
+24
+30
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+30
*Reference peak level. For series with a 'months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1* or *2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at MOO". For series with an MCD of *3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at MOO*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
50
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
CHART 4
Percent of reference peck levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of eoch of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
I | I I I I I | I I I I I I I MI
• Nov. 1948 * Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 * Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
> May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
; n n rn mi
Index
Reference trough dates
43- Unemployment rate, total
[inverted ]
1 II I I I I M I I I I t I I f I 1 I I I I
Reference trough dates
105 r
41. Employees fn nonagrt
establishments
MOO
95 L
110
54. Sales of retail stores
105
55. Wholesale prices, except
farm prod, and foods
95 L-
M III I I M M I I I I M I I I I M I I I I I I I
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
I I I I I I I I I I t I I t I t I I I I I t (1 M I I II
-
6
0 + 6
+12 +18 +24
Months from reference troughs
+30
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak Is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100*, MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4 k
51
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
""|"'"l
inn UN
Index
* Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 • Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
- May 1960 * present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
I 1 1 t M I I H I 1 I I II I J H I I M 1
•<- Reference trough dotei
120r
51. Bank debits outside NYC
100*
100*
95
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
I I M I I I I t t I I I 1I I I I I I I I I I i I I II
+30
0
+6
+12
Months from reference
*Reference peak level. For series with a'months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or *2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at '100*. For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100*. MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
Swe table 1 for latest month tn current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
52
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 mon/hs after the trough of each cycle*
PERIOD COVERED
Nov.
> July
July
• May
Index
I I IM I I H I
1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
1957 • Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1960 * present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
11 I I I I i i M
I I I II M | I M 1 ( I I II|
-*- Reference trough dates
rrn rrn TTTTTI FTT j m T rp M 1 1 1
-<- Reference trough dates
120
100*
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
110
MOO
90
67. Bank rotes, short-term
business loans
100*
64* Mfrs.' Inventories,
all mfg. industries
90*-
6
0 + 6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
-6
0
+
6
+12
+18 +24
+30
Months from reference troughs
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "I" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3* or more/ the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7*
Q
Last two quarters anticipated.
Cyclical Patterns
53
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels meosured from the specific trough dote of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
II
From specific trough dates1 to 30 months later.2 Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of**
1949
1954
Index
Specific trough dates
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and
Indus, bldgs.3
1958
1961 ——~
index
Specific trough dates
1. Avg. workweek,
prod, workers, mfg.
105
100*
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
,1
24. Mfrs,' new orders,
mach. and equip. Indus. I
120 100*
*100
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
'Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of T or *2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
--See appendix B for specific dates.
2
$ee table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
3
For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown. For the current cycle, changes ore based on the low (L) shown in
table 1.
Cyclical Patterns
54
[CHART s
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough dote of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
[ i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ITT i M T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n n 11
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates1 to 30 months later.2 Specific trough dates ore the dates each series actually begins
the expansion Identified with the reference trough of«
Index
•<- Specific trough dates
1958
1949
1954
1961
11 II I I I 1 I I nUTTI ITT ITj PI
Index
17. Price per unit of
labor cost
•*- Specific trough dates
120
110
*100
200
200
180
180
23. Industrial materials
prices
160
160
19. Stock prices. 500
common stocks
/***
140
120
120
100*
MOO
LJJj I I I I I K I M
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
ill I i I H I I I I 1I I 1I I I I M I I p I It I
+30
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Month* from spoolflc troughs
+30
'Specific trough level. For series with o "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1* or *2*, the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month Is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter Is set at "100*. MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
*$•» appendix B for specific dates.
2
$e« table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
55
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough dote of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
I 1 t I I ! 1 I I 1 I I I M 1 I I I! I
Fre^n specific trough dates1 to 30 months later.2 Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of»
Index
- Specific trough dates
1958
1949
1954
1961 ——
I I M M I I H I I M II I I I I I M I I I M H
Specific trough dates
43* Unemployment rote, total
[inverted]
41. Employees in nonogri.
establishments
-1120
54. Sales of retail stores
I
-105
100*
| I I I | | | I j 1j 11I 1 I I I I I I I I I II
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
0
+*
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
^Specific trough level. For series with a 'months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1* or "2", the figure for the specific trough Is set
at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the overage of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month U set at "100*. For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100*, MCD numbers are shown in appendix C
*•$*» appendix B for specific dotes.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
CHART 5
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough dote of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
niM [tf 111111 1 1 1 1 1 1M i 111111
From specific trough dotes1 to 30 months later.2 Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion Identified with the reference trough of»
Index
-*- Specific trough dotes
130
1949
125
1954
nm Mm rTTI nn
i
Index
135
r
i T nm i
-*- Specific trough dates
120
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
130
115
110
125
49. GNP In current dollars
120
105
115
100*
110
105
MOO
150
53. Labor income In mining,
mfg., and construction
140
130r
125
130
52* Personal income
120
120
115
110
110
105
100*
MOO
t i i i l 11 i n i I l I M 11 i
iU
46
+12
+18
424
Months from specific troughs
M 111I M t I II 1I I I II i I i l 1I I II I I I
430
0
46
412
418
424
Months from specific troughs
430
'Specific trough level* For series with o "months for cyclical dominance* (MCO) of *1" or "2*, the figure for the specific trough f s set
at "TOO*. For series with an MCO of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month Is set ot "100"* For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter 1s set at "100*,
MCD numbers ore shown in appendix C.
*See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month In current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after th* specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown In table 9.
^or the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown fn table 1,
Cyclical Patterns
57
Table /.--PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or »2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62,
64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. Fur series with an MCD Of "3" or more
(series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month
Is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter.
See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
tenths Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
after
beginning in—
reference July July Nov. mr. June Oct. Aug. Apr. Feb.
trough1 1921 1924
1927 1933 1938
1949
1954
1958
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
27
26
2* Accession rate manufacturing* . . . .
...
••
3 . Layoff rate, manufacturing ( inverted )**»••*• 26
1
6. Value of manufacturers new orders, durable
27
27
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9, Construction contracts awarded for commer26
cial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13.
14.
16.
17.
19.
23.
24,
Number of new business incorporations. . . .
...
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
I'rice per unit of labor cost index
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of industrial materials prices
•
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machih-
26
27
24
27
27
27
NA
66.1
16.7
97.4
41.6
41.3
94.9
50.3
49.8
72.1
40.2
46.4
97.0
134.0
88.4
102.3
104.9
122.2
99.0
94.5
87.5
100.0
100.9
73.1
101,0
107.9
153.3
157.0
188.3
109.1
126.8
73.9
44.0
47.7
34.1
160.7
184.9
152.4
124.0
141.8
98.9
105.3
106.2
122.5
131.7
31.6
116.4
91.2
20.6
109.5
97.4
122.6
110.1
96.0
136.1 133.9
81.1
68.5
114.3 104.0
100.9 100.3
188.4 115.1
116.6
97.9
99.3
74.0
115.3
101.9
127.0
91.5
98.9
65 -.3 98.4
8.8 116.1
77.7
76.0 101.9 105.7
NA
NA
NA
90.9 150.2 177.2
58.7 83.7
86.3
81.3 102.3
68.3
279.3 98.2 95.7
91.6
20.6 115.1
NA 99.8
NA
33.6
65.4 158.2
88.6 107.4
169.9
27
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA 155-4 148.5
27
29. Index of new private housing units author -
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
96.7
NA
108.2
NA 112.1
NA 112.0
92.7 114.0
NA 111.6
112.9 107.8
97.1
NA
101.9
111.0
113.2
108.8
107.2
100.0
82.9
NA
73.8
64.3
80.0
53.3
68.4
75.7
102.6
89.5
106.2
106.1
NA
95.5
105.0
107,1
107.0
118.1
120.2
127.2
116.7
127.9
123.1
115.6
108.3
111,3
119.4
NA 104.2
132,6
104.6
61,8
108.1
114.2
107.2
126.9
117.5
114.3
102.7
76.1
106.8
112.6
107.6
116.1
113.3
106.9
103.3
87.6
112.6
113.3
109,1
124.1
114,1
109.6
107.7
101.7
99.3
96,2
94.0
101.8
110.1
106.3
113.8
140.8
101.7
101.8
125.7
97.5
105.8
121.4
123.9 116.6
110.8
93.5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
43 • Unemployment rate, total ( inverted ).«*»*.*..
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) ,
Q.
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers..
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
27
27
27
24
24
27
27
27
88.3
NA
104.5
27
65.0
93.0
89.7
85.6
95.5
24
30
60.2
54.9
103.4
100.9
119.1
87.0
37.2
44.0
92.4
131.5
119.3 127.7
119.4 131.3
27
26
26
85.6
NA
NA
93.0
NA
NA
90.9
NA
NA
86.7
74.5
69.9
98.1
104.1
130.0
109.7
135.0
173.3
24
91.7
91.1
120.0
62.9
88.2
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available*
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted aerlee.
3
Comparisoris are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 24 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 30 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 3rd quarter 1963),
Cyclical Patterns
58
TobU 8.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECEKT EXPANSIONS
For series with
64, and 66),
(series 2, 3 (
month is used
quarter* See
a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "!' or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62,
the figure for the reference trough month is'wied as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more
6, 7 t 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough
as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough
also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
Months
beginning in—
after
referApr.
June Oct. Aug.
ence July July Nbv, Mar.
1938 1949 1954 1958
trough1 1921 1924 1927 1933
Feb.
1961
NBEfi LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
3. Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6* Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started,,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs*, floor space2.. •
14, Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
16, Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
19, Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks..,.
23, Index of Industrial materials prices. ..,,«..
24, Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machinery &nd equipment industries .»,t*..***ti.«.
29, Index of new private housing units author-
27
26
26
+6.6 -3.4 -2.8 +11.2 +3.0 +1.5 +3.4 +3.1
0.0
+93.8 -31.1 -1.0 +48.9 +18.1 +30.2 +8.8
NA +33.3 -29.7 +46.4 +78.3 +82.2 +35.4 +20.5 +80.0
+5.7
m
27 H22.4 -2.6 -26.0 *-148.3 H67.3 +64.8 +52.5 +23.0 +33.0
27 +92.4 +36.8 -57.6 H26.0 +96.8 -13.9 -17.2 +10.8 +46.8
26
+16.0 +67.6
26
27
24
27
27
27
-9.3 +32.9 -4.7
-46.1 +28.8 -15.6
NA +89.3 +43.6
NA
NA
NA
+23.0 +U.2 +35.2
+40 ,,1 -0.2 -11.5
+5.1 +72.3 +121.9 +12.9 +26.6 +40.0
-13.8 -5.5 -2.1
t-238.4 +33.3 -18.4
NA *281.2 +17,1
NA +1.1
NA
+62.4 +4.1 +52.2
+74.2 +32.2 +43.0
+15.3
-14.9
+34.1
+2.7
+48.9
+16.6
+3.1
+40.3 +6,9
-9.0 -24,3
+37.4 +33.5
+6.0 +3.8
+31.9 +12.8
+12.6 -4.1
27
Ilk
NA
NA
NA
NA +76.6 +55.6 +32.8 +24.3
27
m
NA
NA
NA
NA
27
27
27
24
24
27
27
27
+28.1
NA
+53.3
+25.5
+25.8
+19.6
+30.7
+18.0
+11.4 +1.1
NA
NA
+32.5 +10.2
+14.7 +10.5
+12.4 +10.6
+17.6 +0.1
+12.1 +4*7
0.0
+9.9
+21.3
+39.8
+55.2
+27.5
+11.0
+39.6
+39.1
+33.9
27
+3.1
NA
-22.1
+2.5 +36.9
NBER ROJOHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagrl cultural
47,
49.
50,
51.
Index of industrial production*.*,
• *,»*
Qroes national product In current dollars (Q)
Qroes national product in 1954 dollars (Q)».
Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods *»
+1.7
-3.6 +17.6
+8.2
+40.0
+18.9
+16.3
+10,5
+14-3 +33.2 +24.9
+17.9 +28.6 +17.8
+29.4 +16.0 •+15.2
+H. 5 +12.8
+59.4 H41.0
+56.8 +31.3
+20.5 +31.6
NA +18.4
+0.9 +14.1
+8.5
+7,1
+35.0
+24.3
+15.5
+11*9
+19,8
+13*6
+10,6
+5.4
+19.0
+19,7
+14.2
+11.2
+21.2
+13.4
+13.8
+2.2
-0.6
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61* Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
a
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
total manufacturing. .»«.*.*.... «**t..*i*t..
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q),
24
30
+75.3 +48.2 +35.6 KL17.1 +54.8 +49.1 +33.6 +19.7 +9.2
+59.9 +U.6 -1.0 +156.4 +120.3 +49.2 +37.4 +17.1 +18.0
27
26
26
-4.9
-9.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
24
U
q
-7.7
NA
NA
+18.2 -5.5 +14.1 +4.1 -4.3 -4.2
+25.8 +10.0 +47.6 +20.7 +7.0 +8.6
+46.1 +39.4 +39.6 +36.2 +24.7 +17.9
+3.9 +24.7 -19.2
-9.6 +23.4 +22.2 +28.3
+0.6
NA Not available,
^Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Comparlsons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 24 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 30 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 3rd' quarter 1963),
59
Cyclical Patterns
Table 9.-PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or ."2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, and 53),
the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 9,
13, 24, 29, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base*
The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after July
specific 1921
trough1
29
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
24. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machin-
Nov.
1927
Mar*
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
23
27
26
31
29
NA
94.8
40.4 99.3
86.3 96.8
NA
NA.
91.5 122.6
59.3 75.7
86.2
71.3
99.5
108.1
NA
NSC
47.5
16.4
67.5
NA
29.6
64.8
91.9
NSC
NA
67.7 103.3
107.0
102.3
119.0
122.8
114.4
123.7
127.6
NSC
104.6
65.5
106.2
112.5
106.9
115.7
114.1
111.0
NA
NA 162.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
88.3 96.6 94.4
NA
NA
NA
109.1 106.1 100.0
NA
NSC
NSC
NA
NSC
NSC
NA 109.1- 110.8
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NSC
102.0
82.9
NA
63.9
64.3
79.8
70.1
60.6
75.7
102.1
73.3
106.2
101.0
NA
106.0
104.3
106.4
23
27
26
31
29
31
29. Index of new private housing units authorNBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. timber of employees In nonagri cultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product In 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe*.
102.6
70.6
106.0
111.9
107.3
113.0
107.8
106.9
103.0
83.9
110.8
113.3
109.1
3
113.2
108.5
110.1
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
29
24. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machin-
99.5
NA
NA
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
96.1
99.9 118.7
NA
27
24
28
24
24
29
27
28
98.5
97.9
NA
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nouagri cultural
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
Feb.
1961
NSC 95.9 98.3
98.4 45.3
NSC 127.0 92.6
60.4 59.7
NA 99.3 89.9 97.9 99.1
60.6 143.8 183.5 114.5 117.4
88.1 103.4 60.1 88.8 89.9
29
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
Apr.
1958
J
31
29. Index of new private housing units author-
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
Aug.
1954
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2..*
July
1924
29
27
24
28
24
24
29
27
28
+14-2
+4.6
0.0
-4.4
+9.9
+4.7
+2.8
+2.1
+5.2
3
NSC +40.2 +5.7
+95.3 +58.3 +28.9 +69.6 +116.6 +45.3
NSC +39.6 +8.3
+23.6 +29.5 +17.9 +8.3 -24.3 +0.9
NA +6.8 +6.2 +6.0 +3.8
NA
NA
NA
NA
NSC +94.1 +11.0 +73.2 H06.5 +38.5 +30.5
+34.9 +44.0
+45.4 +2.6 -33-4 +74.2 +42.4 +53.3 +15.2 +12.2 -1.7
NA
NA
NA KL16.2 +64-1 +34.8 +27.4
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+28.1
+11.4
NA
NA
+ 0 0 +30.0
6.
NSC
NA
NSC
+31.0 +13.2
NA
NA
NSC
+15.9
-0.3
NA
+8.2
NSC
NSC
+13.7
NA
NSC
+21.3
+44-0
+39.3
+27.5
+18.5
+42.6
+70.3
+33.9
+14.5
+33.7
+60.5
+20.5
NA
+21.3
+42.6
+29.5
+12.8
KL18.1
+32.1
+27.3
+17.1
+30.4
+45.9
NSC
+8.2
+54.2
+18.0
+15.6
+11.0
+17.2
+23.5
+14.8
NA
NA
NA
NA
+9.6 +38.4
+7.1
+36.1
+23.8
+15.9
+12.2
+14.3
+17.1
+11.7
+5 .4
+20.3
+19.8
+14.2
+11.2
3
+13.8
+14.3
+14-3
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
1
Beised on period from most recent specific trough of each series to the latest month for which data are available.
The 2 number is the same for each expansion. Specific trough and peak dates are shown In appendix B.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series,
3
Since no specific trough has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) and high (H) shown in table 1.
Appendixes
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)
Business cycle
reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October I860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882
XXX
18
8
32
18
65
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1 9 . .
83.
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.
August 190^
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
30
22
XXX
XXX
40
34
36
48
30
78
36
99
52
101
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
May 1907
January 1 1 . .
90.
January 1913...
August 1 1 . .
98..
January 1 2 . .
90.
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
44
46
43
35
51
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926...
August 1 2 . .
99..
May 1937
February 1945..
November 1 4 .
98.
July 1953
14
13
43
13
1
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May I960
13
"
9
9
35
25
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
iff
22
48
34
44
34
5
48
6
41
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
A
*25 cycles, 1857-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
2
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
6
3 cycles, 1 4 - 9 0
9816
2 cycles, 1 4 - 9 0
9816.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.
61
Appendixes
62
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates are
those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected leading
and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in—
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
Dec. '60
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
13. Number of new business incorpoJan. '61
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. Mar. '61
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Oct. '60
23. Index of industrial mat. prices.... Dec. '60
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Oct. '60
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Dec.»60
Apr, '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 Jul.'32 Apr. '28 Jul.'24 Feb. '21
Jun.'58 NSC
Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dec. '57
Apr. '58
NSC
Dec. '53
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. * 27 Jul.l24 Mar. '21
Feb. '49
May '49
Jun,'49
Jun.'49
Sep. '39
NA
Apr. '38
Jun.'38
Feb. '58 Jan. ' 54 Apr. '49 NA
Dec. '34
NA
Jun.'32
Jul.'32
Dec. '26
NA
NSC
Aug. '28
Jun.'24
NA
Oct. '23
Jun.'24
Jan. '21
NA
Aug. '21
Jul,'21
NA
NA
NA
NA
Feb. '58 MA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Apr. '58
Jul.'58
Apr. '58
IstQ' 58
IstQ' 58
Feb. '58
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
2ndQ'49
2ndQ'49
Oct. '49
Jun.'38
Jun.'38
May '38
2ndQ'38
IstQ' 38
May '38
Mar. '33
May '33
Jul.'32
IstQ' 33'
3rdQ'32
Mar. '33
Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
NSC
4thQ'26
Jul.'24
NA
Jul.'24
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 24
Jul.'21
NA
Apr. '21
4thQ'21
NA
2ndQ'21
NA
NSC
NA
Mar. '22
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagrlcultural establishments *.'.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47, Index of industrial production
49 . GNP In current dollars ( Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
54 . Sales of retail stores
Feb. '61
May '61
Jan. '61
lstQ'61
IstQ' 61
NSC
Aug. '54
Sep. ' 54
Apr. '54
2ndQ' 54
2ndQ' 54
Mar. '54
Feb. '61 Apr. '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 Jun.'38 ffer.'33 NA
May »38 Mar. '33 NSC
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Jan. '54 NSC
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in—
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing*
May '59 Nov. '55
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs . . NSC
.
Mar. '56
13. Number of new business incorporations
. . . Apr. ' 59 Feb. '56
..
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. May '59 Dec.1 55
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59 Jul.'56
23. Index of industrial mat. prices.... Nov. '59 Dec. '55
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries . . '59 Nov. '56
Dec.
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov. '58 Feb.!55
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41* Number of employees in nonagriculApr. '60 tfer.'57
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb.1 60 Mar. '57
47. Index of industrial production.,.,. Jan. '60 Feb. '57
49. ONP in current dollars (Q)
2ndQ'60 3rdQ'57
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q)
2nd Q' 60 3rdQ'57
NSC
Aug.1 57
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
May '60 Jul.'57'
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr.1 60 Jul.'57
NA not available.
Apr. '53 NSC
Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22 HA
NSC
Mar. '46 Jul.'37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19
NSC
Feb. '51
Jan, * 53
Feb. '51
Jul.'46
Jan. '48
Jun,'48
Jan. '48
Dec. '36
NA
Feb. '37
Mar. '37
Jan. '29
NA
Sep. '29
Mar. '29
Oct,'25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25
Apr. '23
NA
Mar. '23
Mar. '23
Dec. '19
NA
JU1.'19
Apr. '20
Feb. '51 Apr.1 46 NA
NA
NA
NA
m
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
May '53
Jun.,'53
Jul*'53
2ndQ' 53
2ndQ' 53
Oct. '53
Jul.'48
Jan. '48
Jul.'48
4thQ'48
4thQ'48
Oct. '48
Jul.'37
Jul,!37
May '37
3rdQ'37
3rdQ'37
Jun.'37
Aug. '29
NA
Jul.'29
3rd Q' 29
3rd Q' 29
Aug. '29
Jan.* 26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 26
Jul,*23
NA
May »23
NSC
NSC
IstQ' 24
Jan. ' 0
2
NA
Feb. '20
NA
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NA
Jul.*20
Jul.'53 Sep. '48 tfey '37 Sep. '29 NA
Jul.'53 NSC
Sep. '37 Sep. '29 NSC
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
Appendixes
63
Appendix C.--AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Monthly series
CI
I
C
I/C
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average vorkveek of production workers,
.24
2.08
1.35
5-45
1.67
2.55
2.33
1,92
2
3
3
3
.95
.92
.55
.76
2.57
2.53
1.86
2.49
1.84
1.82
1.49
1.80
9.82
8.35
8.67
7.59
4.26
4.58
4-53
5.16
4.88
3.67
5
.81
1.66
1.49
7.10
3.37
3.16
1.94
2
.97
1.86
1.53
9.28
3.61
2.00
2.50
3
.75
1.94
1.48
10.64
3.34
2.19
2.53
3
.73
1.68
1.47
12.82
3.56
11.94
5.94
3-39
2.75
2.19
2.01
4.34
2.71
1.69
5
3
3
.80
.79
.67
1.62
1.59
2.29
1.49
1.37
1.67
8.28
8.56
11.46
3.45
3.55
4.46
3.44
2.57
1.67
1.30
2.06
1.98
3
3
.60
.65
1.93
2.19
1.53
1.69
12.43
9.31
3.70
3.50
'L4. Current liabilities of business failures . . . 16.32 16.05
...
15. Number of business failures with. liabilities
of $100 , 000 and over
17.30 17.36
.58
.73
1.90
39. Index of stock prices 500 common stocks . . . 2.58
...
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
5.67
7.34
26. Buying policy— production materials, percent
6.17
5.53
32, Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
11.30 8,12
1.39
2.15
2.81
5.71
6
I1)
1.57
1.42
5.32
2.22
3.26
.1
4
1.49
5.33
1.41
1.28
6
2
2
C1)
.83
.9
7
1.54
2.59
2.40
1.39
1.77
1.73
6.21
9.94
13.55
2.82
3.79
3.36
3.67
1.54
2
.4
9
2.91
1.79
9.79
4.02
2.76
2.00
3
.66
1.90
1.61
11.55
4.63
7.20
1.52
1.13
.91
2
1
.77
.91
3.18
2,61
2.01
1.84
9.94
11.46
3.59
2.61
30.
4.
5.
6.
24.
.0
4
.7
4
6.03
5.31
Nonagricultural placements, all industries.... 3.41
3.14
11.94 10.46
Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
19.43 17.91
Average weekly initial claims for unemploy6.12
6.98
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
5.58
5.00
Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machinery
6.07
5.55
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
12.37
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment.. 6.37
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started.... 4.09
29. Index of new private housing units authorized
3.90
3.04
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
4.1. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
.39
.22
.29
.76
1
.76
3.41
2.04
10.44
3.41
.1
4
4.73
5.80
.32
3.46
4.62
.22
2.91
3.26
1.45
1.19
1.42
2
2
2
.72
.64
.67
1.94
2.44
2.05
1.62
1.68
1.38
15.73
7.67
10.50
3.44
3.48
4.37
5.63
2.80
4.12
.68
1
.68
3.47
2.44
8.28
3.47
3.28
2.10
2.26
.93
1
.93
2.30
1.40
8.13
2.30
4.25
1.82
3.39
1.37 11.00
1.55 10.64
1.69 21.29
4.25
4.32
3.39
4,2,. Total nonagri cultural employment, labor force
4.5. Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
4 6 „ Index of help-wanted advertising in
.
51 Bank debits outside NYC, 34.3 centers
1.16
1.56
.69
.66
1.42
.3
4
.81
.70
.54
.81
2.03
.80
1
3
1
.81
.58
.80
1
4
.82
.70
3.63
1.84
1.80
1.67
13.55
8.77
3.63
3.56
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
1.12
1.58
.69
1.43
.4
8
.56
.82
2.55
' .30
.11
.27
.41
1
.41
5.22
2.53
12.85
5.22
.67
.8
4
.1
4
1.17
2
.9
6
2.52
1.67
9.94
4.14
.88
65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of
finished goods, all manufacturing industries. .99
66. Consumer installment debt
1.19
.27
.0
4
1
.34
7.84
2.16
13.55
7.84
6.48
8.79
2.61
2.29
13.55
18.56
6.48
8.79
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all
See footnotes at end of table.
.9
4
.28
.84
1.12
.34
.58
.25
1
1
.58
.25
Appendixes
64
Appendix C.« AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Conttnued
i/c
CI
Monthly series
I
C
I/O
MCD
for Average duration of run
MCD
C
MCD
I
CI
span
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
.23
1.31
1.46
.74
5.27
4.95
1
5
5
.74
.92
.96
4.48
1.47
1.70
2.18 19.89
1.39 7.59
1.52 5.96
4.48
2.30
2.55
1.52
1.32
2.22
4.97
2.88
2.23
2.29
3.63
4.91
5.21
3
3
4
6
5
.69
.79
.96
'M
.99
1.89
1.71
1.67
1.58
1.49
1.51
1.57
1.47
1.51
1.41
7.84
6.21
7.26
6.46
6.67
4.08
3.06
2.93
2.44
2.40
6.21
4.72
6
(l)
1.61
1.50
5.38
2.76
1.97
.32
.1
.32
5.96
2.14 16,70
5.96
1.03
1.29
.88
1.15
1.63
1.61
1.15
.68
.9
4
.52
.98
.65
.81
1.60
1.51
2.63
1.69
1.17
2.51
1.99
.72
2
3
2
2
3
3
1
.82
.87
.98
.64
.80
.63
.72
2.91
2.41
3.44
2.46
2.20
2.27
3.37
1.95
1.93
2.27
1.62
1.70
1.67
1.77
17.11
15.40
15.50
17.78
17.00
22.00
23.57
5.23
6.91
6.13
4.08
5.09
9.50
3.37
I
C
I/C
.28
.17
6.91
7.17
7.23
83. Federal cash receipts from the public. . . . . 7.49
....
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
3.72 3.39
total
87 . General imports, total
3.52 3.02
94. Index of construction contracts, total value.. 8.29 8.06
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement... 25.35 24.41
15.57 15.00
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. busi29.19 29.33
96. Manufacturers1 unfilled orders, durable goods
.64
2.08
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. OECD European countries, index of indus . prod... 1.32
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial prod
1.29
.98
125. West Germany, index of industrial production.. 1.61
126« France, index of industrial production
1.79
127. Italy, index of industrial production
1.70
2.09
T/E
CI
Quarterly series
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602
manufacturing corporations
11.15
7.66
7.00
4.54
7.59
5.35
.92
.85
1
1
.92
.85
2.82
2.83
1.48
1.65
5.17
3.64
2.82
2,83
7.73
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to Income origin5.78
ating , corporate , all industries
5.06
5.01
1.01
2
.51
2,83
1.42
5.67
3. #5
3.73
4.17
.89
1
.89
2.89
1.49
5.50
2.09
.65
.69
.82
1.13
1.59
1.45
.58
.43
.57
1
1
1
.58
.43
.57
3.19
4.25
4.64
1.50
1.42
1.46
5.10
6.38
7.29
3.19
4.25
4.64
3.61
1.49
2.94
.51
1
.51
4. ' 4
6
1.55
5.67
4.64
1.02
.60
.84
.71
1
.71
a. 68
1.31
7. 29
2.68
2.96
1..94
2.37
.82
1
.82
2.68
1.55
6.38
2.68
6.27
1.26
5.79
.22
1
.22
4.38
1.94
5.83
4.38
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars.
1.44
49* Gross national product in current dollars. . . .1.88
.
57. Final sales (series 49 minus 21)
1.60
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment , total
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
gross national product.
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
*Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 17, "Electronic
Computers and Business Indicators" by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 1961).
"CIM is the average month-to-month (for_quarterly series, quarter-to-quarter) percentage change, without regard to
sign, in the seasonally adjusted series. WT" is the same for the irregular component, which Is obtained by dividing the
cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C11 is the same for the cyclical component which Is a smooth,
flexible moving average.
Appendixes
65
NOTES FOR APPENDIX C—Continued
"MOD" represents months for cyclical dominance. The average (without regard to sign) percentage changes in the irregular component and cyclical component are computed for 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans
[Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans. MOD is the shortest span for which the average change (without regard
to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the avera,^e change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months, all series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
KCD is small for smooth series and large for erratic series.
"QCD" represents quarters for cyclical dominance. It is
the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average change (without regard to sign) in cyclical component is larger
than the irregular^ average (without regard to sign) in component.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted
series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans and for spans of the period of MCD.
When MCD is "6", no I/C
ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average duration of run" is a measure of smoothness, and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly
changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, it is assumed
that the "no change" is a change in the same direction as the preceding change.
The average duration of run is shown
for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD moving average. The MCD
moving average is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. For quarterly series, average duration of run is the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction.
Appendix D.--CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBER
(MAY 1962 TO JUNE 1963)
ISJ63
196>2
May
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff all industries
5. Av. weekly initial claims for
June
91.9
83.9 100.3
July
Aug.
139.4
85.4
82.7 82.8 102.6
13. No. of new business incorp. 1
98.6 98.3
106.8 101.6
14. Cur, liabilities of bus. failures. 96.8 96.5 85.2 110.7
15. No. of bus. failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over... 95.2 105.6
88.9 96.2
17. Price per unit of labor cost
100.0 101.0
index
95.3 99.3
18. Profits (before taxes) per dol.
2
97.4
106.0
of sales, all mfg. corp.
30. Nonagri. placements, all Indus... 108.9 110.9 103.6 116.5
37* Purchased materials , percent re101.6 96.3 94.2 92.1
55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
99.9 99.9 99.8
100.0
farm products and foods
62. Index of labor cost per unit of
99.9 98.8 104.8 100.4
99.8
82. Federal cash payments to public.. 102.9
83. Federal cash receipts from pub... 118.5
90. Defense Department obligations—
69.3
91. Defense Dept. oblig. total
84.8
92. Military prime contract awards
92.7
to U.S. business firms
128. Japan, index of industrial pro99.9
Sept. Oct.
89.5
88.6
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
83,4 102 .6 121.0 116.2
Mar.
Apr.
97.5 82.2
May
June
92.2
83.8
77.6 90.7 104.8 132.5 140 7 109.1 97.3 94.3 82 7 82.6
83.9 101.3 86.8 94.3 120.0 91.0 104.2 106.8 106.7 96.8
96.7 96.4
92.7 97.3 99.9 89.9 105.1 105.2 107.5 112.3
89.3
101.7
88.5
96.0
88.6 111.3
103.4 101.1 98.1
120.7 113.1
98.8
94.7
82.0
113.6 116.8
110.4
94.9 105.5
98.6 100.6 100.9 100.5 100.0
101.0
106.1
99.*8 109.0
110.9
82*!3
97.9
77.4
90 ."2
98.8 109.0 108.5 110.6 109.4
91.8
92.7 96.2
99.9
99.8
99.9 100.0 100.2 100.1 100.1
98.2
96.5
98.8 101.7
101.9
99.7
99.5
102.1 96.1
100.0
99.9
99.8 100.0
98.9
100.2
99.8 99.9
99.9 100.0
99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.0 99.8 99.9 99.9 100.0
94.3 102.7 104.8 98.3 90.8 98.9 92.3 98.9 103.2 106.0
106.1 96.1 113.7
79.0 119.3 149.5
150.3
49.3 112.6 124.2 46.2 102,3 105.1 70.0 113.1 129.6
96.0 117.4
90.7 105.0
76.9
90.6
91.6 132.2
90.0 117.7
81.2
96.4
69.2 192.7
84.7 148.2
89.8
72.9 108.5
89.5
79.7 125.3
93.2
92.8 216.4
99.8
99.6 103.2
94.3 100.3 109.1 99.4 100.2 100.4
193.9
148.6
75.9
95.9
78. 0~ 97.1 89.2
86.7 97.2 95.7
217.4
67.9
72.4
92.2
100.4
99.3
96.6
98.6
These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
1
Factors are a combination of seasonal and trading day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
Appendixes
66
Appendix E.-SUMMARY DESCRIPTION OF X-9 AND X-10 VERSIONS OF THE CENSUS METHOD II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM
Introduction
Two versions of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program have been used to compute the new seasonal
factors shown in appendix D. These versions, designated
X-9 and X-10 (Experimental Programs 9 and 10), replaced,
in February 1962, the method described in "Electronic Computers and Business Indicators," NBER Occasional Paper No.
57, and the X-3 version described in "Tests and Revisions
of Bureau of the Census Methods of Seasonal Adjustments,"
Census Technical Paper No. 5. (The X-3 program had been
used for about 2 years as the standard program prior to
February 1962.) The X-9 program incorporates several
changes from the original method and is recommended for
general use for a wide range of series. The X-10 program
incorporates the changes in X-9 plus a major departure
from earlier versions of Method II. This major change in
X-10 is the selection of the seasonal factor curve for
each month on the basis of an estimate of the size of the
irregular component for that month relative to the amount
of moving seasonality present in an estimate of the seasonal factor. The selection of curves available for each
month includes a 3-, 3x3-, 3x9-t and 3xl5-term moving average and a horizontal straight line. This is in contrast
to the original and X-9 methods of treating all months the
same, either with the use of a 3x3 or 3x5 moving average.
These programs are available for several different
electronic computers. Detailed specifications and additional information can be obtained by writing to the Office
of the Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census,
Washington 25, D.C.
Deocription of the X-9 Program
The changes from the original program included in X-9
are listed below:
(1) In the original version of Method II described
in Occasional Paper No. 57 and X-3, "the six missing
SI ratios at the beginning of the series are supplied
by extending the first available ratios for the corresponding months back to the initial month of the
series. The six missing ratios at the end are supplied
similarly" (Occasional Paper No. 57, step 6d). In the
new programs the missing values are not supplied until
after the seasonal factors have been computed. They
are then supplied by extending (i.e., repeating) the
first available seasonal factor back to the initial
month and similarly for the last available factor at
the end of the series. The effect of this change is
to reduce the weight given the end SI ratios in the
computation of the preliminary seasonal factors.
(2) Extremes are replaced by averaging the two preceding and two following ratios, instead of averaging
the extreme with the preceding and following values.
This revision completely eliminates SI ratios defined
as extreme from the computations of the seasonal factors (included in X-3).
(3) The 5-term moving average, used in computing
the sigma control limits, is extended by repeating the
last moving-average value instead of repeating the
average of the last' two ratios and taking the moving
average. This revision improves the prospects .that
extreme values at the end of series will be identified
as such.
(4) The method of centering or forcing the seasonal
factors to add to 1200 for the calendar year has been
replaced with a moving centering device which makes
the seasonal factors add as closely as possible to
1200 for any 12-month period. The centering is done
after the computation of a 3- or 5-term moving average
for each month. Following the centering, a 3-term
moving average is applied to each month. In the original version and X-3, the ratios were centered before
moving averages were computed for each month.
(5) Less weight is given to the ratios for end
years in the computation of the seasonals. To extend
the 3x5 moving average, the end four ratios Instead of
the end two are averaged to obtain additional SX ratios (included in X-3). To extend the 3x3 moving average, the end three ratios, instead of the end two,
are averaged to obtain additional SI ratios.
Description of the X-1Q Program
The X-10 program includes the first four changes listed
above for the X-9. In addition, for each month, the curve
to measure the seasonal factor is selected on the basis of
an estimate of the size of the irregular component relative to the amount of change in the seasonal factor. This
estimate of the relative amount of irregular to changing
seasonal!ty is designated the moving seasonal!ty ratio.
Moving seasonality ratios are calculated as follows:
First, a 7-term moving average of the SI ratios is computed
for each month and taken as an estimate of the seasonal
factor; this 7-term moving average is divided into the SI
ratios and the resultant series is taken as an estimate of
the irregular series. Next, the average year-to-year percent change without regard to sign is computed in the 7term moving average and in the irregular series. Then, the
average change in the estimate of the irregular to the
average change in the estimate of the seasonal is calculated. This is the moving seasonality ratio. A moving
average is then chosen for each month on the basis of thin
ratio as is shown in the table below. In eonstrueting thin
table, the parameters have been chosen to select a eurvo
which reduces the year-to-year percentage change in tho
residual irregular remaining in tho estimate of the seasonal to about one-half the year-to-year percentage change
in the seasonal*1
Moving seasonality ratio
Average of SI ratios for
seasonal factor curve
0 to 1.49
1.50 to 2.^9
2.50 to 4.49
4.50 to 6.49
6.50 to 8.49
8.50 and over
3-term moving average
3x3-teroi moving average
3x5-term moving average
3x9-term moving average
3xl5-term moving average
All ratios (stable)
In the actual computations, the moving seasonality
ratio selects from 1-, 3-, 5-, 9-, 1 5-term moving average
and an average of all the ratios. After a selection is
made and the appropriate moving average is calculated,, a
moving centering device is employed to make each 12-month
period add as close to 1200 as possible. Finally, further
smoothing of the "data for each month is carried out by a
3-term moving average.
It has been possible thus far to conduct only a limited
amount of testing of the X-10 program and for this reason
especially careful review of sueh adjustments is required.
In some cases the original Method II or other approaches
will give similar or perhaps better results. The Bureau
•of the Census is continuing research intended to Improve*
seasonal adjustment techniques and will provide new variants of the general method as is warranted from the ovi~
dence. The results of our experimental work will be reported in detail as soon as feasible.
variable seasonal factor technique was developed
by Dr. Stephen N1. Marris, Head of the Statistics Division
of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, and is described in Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic
Computers, pp. 257-309 (OECD, Paris, 1961. Copies can bo
obtained from the regional office: Organisation for European Economic Cooperation, 1346 Connecticut Avenue, N.W.,
Washington, D.C., price $9.50.) The Bureau of the Consua
and the OECD have cooperated in further theoretical end
empirical development of this technique since completion
of the OECD paper, and the X-10 program differs slightly
from that in the original description.
Appendixes
67
Appendix F.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES:
1920 TO 1961
Percent change:
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
41. Employees
in n onagri, establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
Reference peak to reference trough
43. Unemployment rate
50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
()
Q1
51. Bank
debits
outside
NYC
52. Personal
income
54. Retail
sales
Change
in rate,
peak to
trough
Rate at
peak-
2
NA
NA
NA
-31.6'
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5-9
-51.8
-31.7
NA
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-4-3
-1.9
00
.
-43.5
-14.1
Feb. 1945-Oct. 19454
Mov 1948-Oct, 1949
July 1953-Aug 1954s ...--.
July 1957-Apr 1958
May 1960-Feb. 1961
-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-4.1
-2.0
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.9
NA
-1.4
-3.0
-3.8
-1.9
-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.8
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4«0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
+0.6
+8.7
-0.3
-0.8
-3.4
-3.5
+2.2
+3.6
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8
Median:6
All contractions . . . .
...
Excluding postwar con-
-5.7
-16.0
-2.4
-2.9
-3.1
-2.2
-2.6
-6.5
-16.0
-2.6
-2.9
-3.6
-2.3
-3.8
-8.8
-2.4
-2.2
-0.8
-0.2
2
+7.9
2+2.3
^.
22
+25.4
+8.8
Jan . 1920- July 1921
May 1923-July 1924
Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927
Aug. 1929-Mar. 1933
May 1937- June 1938
4 contractions since
1948
Percent change:
Expansions :
Reference trough
to reference peak
41 Employees
in nonagri . establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
4 0
.
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
2
Rate at
trough
2
11.9
S
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
4.0
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.6
6.0
7.4
7.0
+3.3
3.6
7.2
-3.4
+3.4
40
.
'7.5
-2.1
+3.3
41
.
7.2
Reference trough to reference peak
3
43- Unemployment rate
50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
()
Q1
49 GNP
in current
dollars
()
Q1
51. Bank
debits
outside
NYC
52. Personal
income
54. Retail
sales
Change
Rate at
in rate,
trough
trough
to peak
2
2
Rate at
peak
2
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
1921-May 1923
1924-Oct. 1926
...
1927-Aug. 1929
1933-May 1937 . . .
1938-Feb. 19454
NA
NA
NA
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24-1
+119.9
+183.3
NA
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
NA
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131/7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+63.1
+103.3
'
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
'
4.1
25.4
20.0
Oct.
Oct.
Au<*.
Apr.
1945-Nov. 1 4 . . . .
98
1949- July 1953s
1954-July 1957
1958-May I 6
90
+17.2
+17.7
+8.9
+7.2
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+27.4
+13.5
+11.9
+34.9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.5
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.4
+62.0
+26.3
+20.4
+13.5
+0.3
-5.0
-1.8
.-2.2
3.3
76
.
6.0
74
.
+17.4
+35.2
+12.8
+27.9
+33.8
+27.0
+20.8
-3.6
7.0
3,3
+13.0
+26.6
+12.5
+21,5
+44
2.
+21.6
+16.5
-2.5
6.3
3.7
+13.0
+23.5
+12.7
+29.4
+39.0
+25.6
+23.4
-2.0
67
.
3.9
-8.7
3 6
I'
2
11.9
5 5
f
2
3.2
1.9
' 3.2
11.2
1.1
2
2 3
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
Median:6
Including wartime ex4 expansions since
1945
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series
(series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
lf
rhe most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st
quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER), vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Appendixes
68
Appendix G.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Series are in one of the following categories:
(l) those that are new to the report,
historically, and (3) those for which historical data have not previously been shown.
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr,
May
July
June
(2) those that have been revised
See table 1 for later data.
^
}
~" I"— =™ -~
Sept.
Oet.
Nov.
Doe.
Aug.
17. Price per unit of labor cost index (1957-59*100)*
1943
1949 .......
106,0
101.6
105.5
101.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958. ......
1959
101.3
113.4
102.6
100.0
96.4
101.0
101.9
101.7
96.9
101 .4
102.0
113.6
102.5
100.0
96.4
100.8
102.1
102.1
95.6
101.8
1950
103.5
102.3
103.8
100.9
102.0
113.1
102.2
99.9
96.7
101.5
101.2
102.4
95.2
102.0
101.9
104.5
99.6
104.5
111.3
100.9
99.7
97.3
102.0
102.1
100.5
94.7
103.4
101.4
105.3
98.6
104.7
110.4
100.3
100.3
98.2
101.2
101.1
100.1
95.8
103.6
100.8
105.0
98.9
105.6
108.8
99.9
99.5
98.3 !
101.8
100.2
100.3
97.5
102.7
100.4
104.6
98.9
107.7
105.3
100.6
100.3
98.0
101 .4
97.0
100.1
98.5
101 .6
100.4
103.5
100.5
110.9
103.8
101.1
99.1
98. -5
101.0
99.7
100.9
99.6
100.3
99.9
102.8
101 .6
108.0
101.0
101.4
96.5
98.7
104.2
101.0
109.3
103.4
101 .2
98.5
97.9
101.6
100.8
99.7
99.9
100.4
103.8
101.5
109.1
103.1
101.3
97.9
97.9
102.5
101 .2
98.3
101.1
100.1
102.3
101.2
98.1
102.1
99.3
99.8
100.0
99.9
102.6
101.5
97.6
101.1
1Q r t j.S
98.9
103.5
100.9
112.3
103.2
100.6
96.1
100.1
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories (Percent reporting}*
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
48
39
44
36
44
48
43
42
34
48
52
54
36
45
48
48
44
41
45
31
52
57
54
33
57
58
44
34
49
47
37
47
32
55
57
47
32
60
52
NA
22
47
27
60
51
30
41
39
56
61
43
29
66
55
24
6'
46
33
43
34
63
5?
40
32
66
63
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
45
34
62
63
46
30
46
38
44
45
42
46
28
49
26
51
52
36
44
34
55
58
41
31
64
47
54
52
NA
43
49
37
45
35
54
44
39
43
40
53
54
42
43
43
41
42
38
48
42
38
42
41
53
53
42
46
38
38
42
37
31
48
45
40
37
45
57
45
41
51
43
41
41
51
43
41
34
47
56
54
3B
48
49
39
61.3
77. S
81.3
89.0
88.9
94.3
92.4
91.6
96.5
101.6
98.8
102.1
80.7
79.0
80.8
89.2
89.4
95-0
91.4
91 .6
96.4
102.4
99*5
99.2
101.7
102.2
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (1957-59-100)*
1948
1949
1950
1951
195?
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957. . .
1958
1959
I960
77.8
81.7
78.0
81.7
79.1
81 .4
79.5
82.1
78.5
81.8
89.2
90.0
95.0
90.6
92.3
96.6
103.2
99.0
97.2
78.5
82.6
89.2
89.9
94.8
90.8
92.5
96.6
104.3
98.9
98.6
78.6
83.2
89.4
90.4
94.7
90.3
93.7
96.5
104.8
98.8
77.1
84-7
90.3
90.5
94.3
89. S
93.4
98.1
105.4
97.6
99.7
*Data are seasonally adjusted.
99.1
79.1
82.2
77.8
85.3
90.7
90.3
93.4
90.4
94.7
98.6
104.3
97.6
79.8
81,5
77.6
86J
90,8
91 .0
93.1
90.4
95.8
98.7
102.6
98.6
100.3
10C.9
80.4
80.8
81.5
79.2
77.4
88.1
90.1
90.8
93.2
91.0
98.7
99.2
101.5
99.5
100.9
76.5
88.6
89.7
91.8
92.7
91.7
96.7
98.7
100.6
100.7
101 .4
81.5
78.6
78.9
88.8
89.6
92.5
93.0
91.7
96.1
99.6
100.3
100.7
101.3
81.0
78.2
80.1
89.2
89.5
93.2
93.1
91.3
96.3
101.1
99.2
101.0
101.2
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series and"Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by"EOM" or "EOQ".
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk(*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).--
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
*6.
*7.
*9.
10.
State programs (M),--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
Value of manufacturers* new orders, durable goods industries
(M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Natio'hal Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).--Department
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and F. W. Dodge
Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing cor-
*12.
13.
*14.
15.
*16.
porations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Number of business failures with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and
over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M).--Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, at I manufacturing cor-
porations (Q).«Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
* 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased
materials (EOM). --Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*21. Change in business inventories, form and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income or iginating, corporate, all
industries (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, from special tabulations of the Office of Business
Economics
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods indus-
tries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commit-
ments 60 days or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories (M). -National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal
adjustment
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Ml.
Number of employees in nonagricultural
establishments (M).»
Depattmenl of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M),—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rote, total (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rote, State programs
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).--Boaid of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). —Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).--Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M),—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census and Office of Business Economics
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of
merce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*6l. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of tabor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and
salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP in 1954 dollars) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economic s
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base).
*67. Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
PENALTY rOtt PWIVATt USC TO AVOID
PAYMENT OF P04TAOK. f*OO
(QPO)
WASHINGTON, D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES»Con.
18 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81. Index of consumer prices (M).'-Department of Labor, Bureau of
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Q).--National
Industrial Conference Board: component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M),-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).—Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because or differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment.
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M),—Treasury Depart-
mentj Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office or the
President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly
totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of
differences in the method of seasonal adjustment,
84. Federal cosh surplus or deficit (M),--Treasury Department, Bu-
reau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment.
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M).« Board of Governors of the Federal ReSystem
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M),--Depart-
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Develop merit, European Countries, index of Industrial production (M).--Organ tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of Industrial production (M).--Organ-
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
123. Con a do, index of industrial production (M).--Dominion Bureau
of Statistics, Ottawa
125. West Germany, Index of industrial production (M),--Organ!za-
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
126.
Economic Cooperation and Development
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).--Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).--The Bank of Japan,
Statistics Department; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
... United States, index of industrial production (M),--Seeseries47,
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General Imports, total (M),—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) {M}.--De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. Defense Deportment obligations, procurement (M).—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).--Department of De-
fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
DIFFUSION INDEXES
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above
for Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Source* for
oth<:r diffusion indexes are as follows;
D33. Profits, Chtcogo PAA (M).--Purchasing Agents Association
of Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).--First National City Hank
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).--De-
partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings)
D3!>.
(M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
D36.
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). —F. W. Dodge
D4IJ.
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal Income and product account (Q).--De-
D53.
Corporation
partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries( EOM).-
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
France, index of industrial production (M).--Organization for
of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components.
Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Net sates, total manufactures (Q}.--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
New orders, durable manufactures (Q).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
Freight carloadings (Q).--Association of American Railroads;
no seasonal adjustment
Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).-"Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment of series
components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
@FedFRASER