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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Robert Ortner, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
Fellks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beck man—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Mary D. Young—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
Lincoln F. Anderson, Council of Economic Advisers
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Othor Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

BCII

iii

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6

JULY 1986
Data Through June
Volume 26, Number 7

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS

A3
A4

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

CT
C2
C3

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

Al

The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds




10
12
14
15

60
—
—
—

.16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

36
—
39

74
77
—

for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office of Management
and Budget through September 30, 1986.

ItCII




PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES

JS1.
_A2_

A5
-Afi.

NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving . .
Shares of GNP and National Income

Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

48
49

84
87

51

89

52
53

90
90

56
57

92
93

58
59
59

94
95
96

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY

JIL
B2

Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)

B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series

97
98

D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")

E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (April 1986 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

104
105
109
113

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
Changes in this issue are as follows:

revisions made by

1. Series based on data from the national income and
product accounts (NIPA) have been revised by the source
agency for the period 1983 to date to reflect the incorporation of new source data and new seasonal adjustment factors.
Revised data are shown in this issue for series 16, 18,
22, 30, 34-36, 49-53, 55, 59, 62, 64, 68, 70, 79-81, 86-89,
95, 107, 108, and 223 in section I-B; all series in section
II-A; series 310 and 311 in section II-B; and series 500-502,
510-512, 564, and 565 in section II-D.
Revised data for other series affected by these revisions (series 20, 27, 57, and 77) will be shown in a future
issue.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Cotrcnerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, National Income and Wealth Division.
2, Data on the value of construction put in place have
been revised by the source agency for the period 1964 to date.
This revision reflects (a) a change in the base year for the
constant-dollar series from 1977 to 1982, (b) reclassification
of certain categories of construction, (c) historical revisions of data, and (d) computation of new seasonal adjustment
factors. For use in BC£, data for the period prior to 1964
have been adjusted, where necessary, to the level of the revised data. These revisions have been incorporated into the
data for series 20 (contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars) and series 69 (manufacturers1 machinery
and equipment sales and business construction expenditures).
Further information concerning this revision may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, Construction Statistics Division.
(Continued on page iv.)
The August issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on September 3.



III

source agencies in
concept,

composition,

comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.

3. The series on change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and
life insurance companies (series 33) and change in business and consumer credit
outstanding (series 111) have been revised for the period 1983 to date to reflect
the annual updating of data on mortgages held by savings and loan associations*
In addition, for series 111, the Bureau of Economic Analysis has introduced
an adjustment (beginning in 1983) to remove the effect on the series of shifts in
the legal structure of institutions providing mortgage loans. The adjustment is
needed because, in recent years, shifts in legal structure — such as conversion
from a savings and loan association into a savings bank -- have become increasingly frequent. Data needed to adjust the series are from the Federal Home Loan Bank
Board.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S.
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division,
4. The series on productivity and costs (series 26, 63, 345, 346, 358, and
370) have been revised by the source agency for the period 1947 to date. These
revisions incorporate revised output and compensation measures reported in the
NIPA revisions (see item 1, above) and recently revised data on employment and
average weekly hours (see item 1 on page iii of the June 1986 BCD).
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S.
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology, Division of Productivity Research.
5. Revisions shown in the June 1986 BCD for the series on U.S. international
transactions have been extended back to earlier years. Revised data are shown in
this issue for the following periods:
Series 618 and 622 — 1967 through 1968;
Series 620 -- IV Q 1971;
Series 651 — 1960 through 1968;
Series 652 — 1960 through 1968 and IV Q 1979;
Series 667 and 669 — 1960 through 1981;
Series 668 ~ 1960 through 1968, 1975, and 1980.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S.
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Balance of Payments Division.
6. Appendix C contains historical data for series 330-335.
7. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 21, 30, 50, and 82.




IV

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II T Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1959, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1950, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1974.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday



adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is. sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed
as a result of revisions in important economic
time series. The dates shown in this publication
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a neW
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I jof
BCD are based on the results of that study/
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conformity to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically1
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

1

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
\ .

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

Economic
\iProcess
CyclicalX.
Timing
X.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(61 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Job vacancies
; (2 series)
S Comprehensive
• employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(24 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Orders and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits 8fld profit
margins (7 series)
Cashflows (2series)

Money (5 serifs)
Credit Hows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2s*rm)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Intwtst rates
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(6 series)

Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

Business investment
expenditures
(1 series)

Consumption and
trade (1 series)

Vtkicjty of money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Interest rites
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Interest rates
( i series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
N.

Economic
Process

Cyclical^
Timing
N .

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)

x.

Industrial
production
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
( i series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
margins (6 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
{4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utifeation
(2 series)

Consumption and
trade (3 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

Profits and profit
margins (2 series)

Money (1 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
U series)

Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business investment
expenditures
{7 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(41 series)

Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)




Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)

indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators,

Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change

Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
each component series is standardized: The monthbusiness executives about their plans and
to-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
This section covers 112 individual time series, based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
The coincident index is calculated so that its long- including the 22 indicators used in the series.
term trend (since 1948) equals the average of the construction of the composite indexes. The peak
This section also records rates of change for the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is and trough timing classifications are shown on the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be charts in the same manner as described above, but lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular this section includes series with different timing at economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lag- timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
ging indicators have been adjusted so that both as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
their trends and their average month-to-month measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
percent changes (without regard to sign) are ap- are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at 1-quarter spans.
proximately equal to those of the coincident index. turning points of the given type. Eight series are
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
(For a more detailed description of the method of unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 rates of change for the same aggregates are
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984 series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but generally positively correlated, these two measures
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series present information about two related but distinct
In addition to these principal composite indexes, that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the change, while rates of change measure the degree
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken indicators of this section by economic process and as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
together, these additional indexes include all 12 cyclical timing is summarized in the two diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
component series of the overall leading index, plus tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
a few related series. Also shown in this section is based on the observed behavior of the series at five indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, at the business cycle turns as well.




Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national product—personal consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in

the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.



Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services
(A4) is the compensation of government employees
and purchases from business and from abroad. It
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
of the national production; imports are not, but are
included in the components of GNP and are
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
international transactions is provided in section E.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
originate in the production of goods and services
attributable to labor and property supplied by
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
and expenditures during an accounting period.
Total gross saving includes personal saving,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and
government surplus or deficit.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).-The
major expenditure components of GNP
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of GNP, and the major income
components of national income (compensation of
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of national income.

Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1974.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.

Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons,
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D. Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense
Indicators,
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates, Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1974) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1974) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Basic Data

Arabic numberindicates latest
month for which data are
plotted, ("9" = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for whfch data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Rates of Change

Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.

Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3- or 4-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in com*
puting the changes.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r 


2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data'
Unit
of
measure

Series title and timing classification1

Percent change

Annual average
1985

4th Q
1985

2dQ

1st Q
1986

Apr.

May
1986

4th Q
to
1st Q

Apr.
to
May
1986

June
1966

May
to
June
1986

-0.1
-0.9
0.8
- 1 . 7

0.3
-0.
-0.7
0.

1
0
2
- 1

- 1 .
- 0 .
0 .
1 .

3
4
2
7

0 . 3
0 . 1
N A
- 0 . 5

0.
0.9
3.5
-0.3

0.3

-0.2
-0.1
-2.1

0.
0.
1.8

1st Q
to
2dQ
1986

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A l . Composite Indexes
910.
920,
930.
940.

Leading Indicator Subgroups:
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917. Money and financial flows

165.
154.5
117.3
131.8

169.1
160.3
127.0
126.3

172.3
161.8
129.9
124.5

1
1
1
1

7
6
3
2

4
2
2
3

.
.
,
.

9
9
5
0

178.3
163.9
131.8
124.4

1 7 8 . 3
1 6 5 . 3
1 3 1 . 4
125.8

178.1
163.8
132.4
123.7

1
1
1
1

..do..,
..do..,

110.3
105.3
110.8
136.4

110.3
102.0
115.2
138.8

110.2
102.4
115.5
141.2

1
1
1
1

1
0
1
4

0
3
9
0

.
.
.
.

2
3
5
8

110.5
103.4
NA
141.5

111.3
103.6
121.9
140.1

109.9
103.2
122.1
142.5

1 1 0 . 2
1 0 3 . 3
N A
1 4 1 . 8

L.L.L.... Hours
do
L.C.L.
L,C,L... Thousands

Twelve leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging Indicators
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

40.7
3.4
366

40.5
3.3
383

40.8
3.5
376

40.7
3.4
384

40.7
3.4
377

40.7
3.4
374

40.7
3.4
378

40.6
3.3
378

0.
0.
- 1 . 1

- 0 . 2
- 0 . 1
0 .

0.458
131

0.497
139

0.522
143

0.509
141

0.471
134

0.471
132

0.445
128

0.497

- 0 . 0 2 6
- 3 . 0

0 . 0 5 2
1 0 . 2

185.44 185.71 185.82
105.54 106.04 105.67
99.40
99.84
99.78
25,028 24,954 25,038

185.75
105.95
99.91
24,964

185.56
1 0 6 . 5 1
9 9 . 8 2
2 4 , 8 5 9

W.I...
CCC...
Lg.Lg.Lg....
L.L.L....

L,L,L
. ,. L.l.L,
L.L.L,
.. L.L.L.,

.

1967-100..
....do
....do
....do

do..,

7
6
3
2

8
2
1
3

.
.
.
.

6
6
5
7

. 5
.
. 0
. 2

1 . 9
0.6

-0.5
1.1

0 . 1
N A
0 . 5

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
B l . Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
• 1 . Average weekly hours, mfg
21, Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.1
•5. Average weekly Initial claims (inverted*)

Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3.. ,. L,Lg,U... Ratio
. L,Lg,U... 1967 = 100..
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagrlcultural establishments
42, Persons engaged in nonagrlcultural activities
•41. Employees on nonagriculturai payrolls
40. Employees in goods-producing industries
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age1

... U.C.C.. A.r.( bil. hrs..
Millions
do
Thousands....
... L,C,U...

.. u,cc...
.. ccc...

177.35
101.68
94.46
24,730

182.30 184.60
103.97 1 0 4 . 9 0
97.69 9 8 . 6 7
25,054 2 4 , 9 3 7

0
0
0
- 0

.
. 3
. 1
. 3

-0.013 -0.038
-1.4
-5.0

-0.1
0.5
-0.1
-0.4

0.5
0.6
0.7
0.4

0.1
0.5
0.4
-0.3

Percent

58.79

59.38

59.61

59.74

59.83

59.70

59.77

6 0 . 0 2

0.07

0.25

0.13

0.09

Thousands..,
Percent
...do
Weeks
Percent

8 , 5 3 9
7 . 5
2.8
18.2
2.4

8,312
7.2
2.8
1 5 . 6
2 . 0

3,162
7.0
2.7
15.5
1.9

8,259
7.1
2.8
14.9
1.9

8,446
7.2
2.8
14.6
1 . 9

8,342
7.1
2.8
14.3
1.8

8.554
7.3
2.8
1 4 . 4
1 . 9

8,443
7.1
2.8

- 2 .
- 0 .
0 .
- 0 .
- 0 .

1
0
0
- 5
- 0

-1.2
-0.1
-0.1
3.9
0.

-2.3
-0.1
0.
2.0
0.

3489.9
2877.1

3585.2
2962.8

3622.3
2982.2

3655.9 3665.7
3018.2 3065.2

3078.7

3065.0

3051.9

-0.4

0.9
1.2

0.3
1.6

2455.6

2527.4

2547.1

2574.4 2616.2 2 6 3 0 . 0

2615.0

2603.7

-0.6

-0.4

1.1

1.6

529.2

538.0

539.5

541.4

541.7

544.0

542.8

538.2

-0.2

-0.8

0.4

0.1

121.8
124.8
122.5
1503.1

124.5
128.2
125.6
1 5 3 3 . 2

125.4
128.9
127.2
541.7

125.6
129.0
128.6
1563.6

124.7
127.7
129.5
1565.7

1 2 5 . 2
1 2 8 . 5
1 2 9 . 3

1 2 4 . 7
1 2 7 . 8
1 2 9 . 7

124.1
126.7
129.6

-0.4
-0.5
0.3

- 0 . 5
- 0 . 9
- 0 . 1

0.2
0.1
1.1
1.4

-0.7
-1.0
0,7
0.1

80.8
82.3

80.3
80.3

80.1
79.5

79.9
79.4

79.1
78.3

78.6
77.9

-0.3
-0.4

- 0 . 6
- 0 . 4

-0.2
-0.1

-0.8
-1.1

103.75 102.62 104.77
96.87
95.64
97.64

-1.1
-1.3

2 . 1
2 . 1

1.4
1.6

-2.9
-3.3

-3.9
1.79
-0.3
5

0.8
2.05
0.3
-5

0.8
3.33
1 . 9
3

- 2 . 3
- 3 . 1 4
-0.8
4

-1.8
-1.9
-0.4
0.7
0.4

N A
N A
- 0 . 2
0 . 2
0 .

- 0
0
0
1
1
- 0
4

.. U,Lg,U...
Comprehensive Unemployment:
... L,Lg,U...,
37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted4)
.... L,tg,U...,
43, Unemployment rate (inverted')3
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.4)1.... ... L,Lg,U.
.. Lg,Lg,U-...
•91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted')
.. Lg,Lg,Lg....
44, Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.')3

15.2
2.0

5
2
7
1

.
.
.
.
.

3
2
6
1

B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income;
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars
*51. Personal income less transfer payments
in 1982 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction
Industrial Production:
•47. Industrial production
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs....
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars

C,C,C... A.r.,bil.dol
do
CCC,.,.
CCC...

do

CCC...

do...

CCC. 1977 = 100..
. CCC
C,L,L.
.. . CCC...

Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3

L,C,U.... Percent
do
L,C,U...,

79.5
78.7

79.2
78.3

-0.4

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
L,LhL... Bil.dol
6. Mfrs.1 new orders, durable goods
100.56
...do
L.L.L....
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
95.73
*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
...do
and materials
82.28
...do
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3
.. L.L.L..
2.11
96. Mfrs.1 unfilled orders, durable goods'
L,Lg,U.. Bil. dol.( EOP... 345.44
. L.L.L.. Percent
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 (u)
61

104.30
97.93

05.28
98.36

84.60
0.63
353.04
45

86.28
-1.15
353.04
45

Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
•57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles...
58. Index of consumer sentiment ( u )

106.80 103.71
99.98
96.72

85.02
87.01
87.03
83.67
2.18
-0.96
-2.84
-1.05
359.59 356.69 356.74 355.70
48
52
55
50

Bil. dol
do
977 = 100
Bil, dol
do
A.r.bil.dol
IQ 1966=100

411.30
395.64
118.2
07.76
102.54
105.7
97.5

424.55
408.26
120.7
114.50
106.96
115.3
93.2

• 30.26
12.17
122.6
15.69
07.35
111.6
91 . 1

• 26.35
• 1 3 . 4 4
1 2 3 . 2
1 7 . 0 8
0 8 . 9 1
1 1 1 . 1
9 5 . 5

NA
NA
124.0
18.31
11.44
117.8
96.8

28.46
22.64
124.4
17.72
11 .16

L,L,L... 1967 = 100...
L,L,L... Number

121.3
2,922

121.2
55,780

120.5
7,785

1 2 0 . 5
9 , 1 6 5

121.0
NA

L,L,L... Bil. dol..

. CCC...
.. CCC...
, CtLtC...
. C,L,U....
.. U.L.U....
.. L,C,C...
.. L.L.L....

96.2

420.74
414.54
123.9
118.52
111.60

84.35
1.00
356.69
50

HA
NA
1 2 3 . 7
1 8 . 7 0
1 1 . 5 6

.
.
.
.
.
.
.

9
3
5
2
5
4
8

0
1
2
6
1

N A
N A
. 6
. 1
. 3
. 0
. 4

9 4 . 8

9 9 . 3

- 1 . 5

4.7

1 2 3 . 1
9 , 8 8 0

1 1 9 . 9

1 1 9 . 9

- 2 . 6
N A

0 .
N A

0.
2.4

0 . 4
N A

- 2 . 1

3.4

-7.3

0.4

- 0 . 1
- 0 . 2

5 . 5
2 . 3

-6.6
-4.8

4.8

-3.6

B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
•12. Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
•20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars
-.
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.' new orders In 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods




L,L,L.
L,L,L.
L,L,L...

31.32

31.98

32.75

3 0 . 3 5

30.48

3 0 . 5 7

2 9 . 9 2

..do..
..do..

31.78
26.95

32.60
27.19

3 3 . 0 9
2 7 . 8 2

3 0 . 9 1
2 6 . 4 9

31 .63
26.35

3 1 . 0 7
2 6 . 1 8

3 1 . 0 5
2 6 . 1 4

3 2 . 7 7
2 6 . 7 4

do...

27.66

28.26

2 8 . 6 4

2 7 . 6 1

27.99

27.73

2 9 . 0 6

2.0

2 . 3
- 0 . 5
1.4

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data3
- Series title and timing classification1

of
measure

Percent change

Annual average
1984

1986

May
to
June
1986

-9.0

-1.1

138.0

-3.0
-0.5

NA
-1.1

1,845
142.9

-7.9
-5.1

Apr.

4th Q
1985

1st Q
1986

1985

Apr.

2dQ
1986

May
1986

1986

June
1986

to
May

4th Q
to
1st Q
1986

1st Q
to
2dQ
1986

e

1

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
l,C,U.... Mil.sq.ft
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
U,Lg,U.... Bil.dol
Ril Hnl PHP

Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment....:
C.Lg.Lg.... A.r., bil. dol
69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
C,Lg,Lg....
do
76. Industrial production, business equipment
C,Lg,U.... 1977=100
86. Nonresidents fixed investment in 1982 dollars
C,Lg,C... A.r., bil.dol
Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started
•29. Building permits, new private housing units
89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

L.L.L.... Ax, thousands..
L.L.L.... 1967=100......
L,L,L... A r bil dol

78,07
29.36

86.42
27.22
94,58

87.95
27.19
94.58

73.01
24.50
92.63

354,44 3 8 6 , 4 1 3 9 7 . 7 4

376.08

94.37

375.02 401.80 414.60 3 9 5 . 2 0
134.9
141.2
141.0
140.9
458.2
457.8
416.5
476.9

78.95
NA
NA

76.71

75.88

-17.0
-9.9
- 2 .1

8.1
NA
NA

9
11
97

-5.4

84.26

3.0

61

-4.7
0.1
-4.0

NA
- 1 .2
-0.7

69
76
86

-0.8
0.2

12.7
5.6
2 .6

-4.5
-0.7
3 6

28
29
89

387.42

402.84 3 9 0 . 8 4
139.3 140.3 1 3 9 . 6
NA

NA

454.8

1,750
134.8
181 .4

1,742
138.1
191 .8

1,773
138.5
181 .5

1,998
146.3
186 .3

1,908
145.3
193 .1

2,019
150.3

1,860
142.6

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
•36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (smoothed6)3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value3
38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order, book value3
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value*
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars'
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value5
•77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars3
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order, book value5

L,L,L...

do

59.2

9.0

-5.2

39.9

19.6

L,L,L...
L,L,L...

do
do

49.21
53.2

2.99
9.7

5.07
16.9

19.99
20.1

NA
NA

29.67
5.1

12.95
-23.8

NA
NA

-16.72
-28.9

NA
NA

14.92
3,2

NA
NA

36
31

0.71

-0.31

0.07

0.02

NA

-1.76

-1.39

NA

0.37

NA

-0.05

NA

38

NA 588.60 586.61
NA 648.02 644.47
NA 87.80
87.66

NA
NA
NA

-0.3
-0.5
-0.2

NA
NA
NA

0.9
1 .2
-0.8

NA
NA
NA

71
70
65

NA

1.55

NA

0 .02

NA

0.01

NA

77

NA 212.56 211 .17

NA

-0.7

NA

0.

NA

78

-0.41
225.0
0.25

-1.20
0.6
0.33

-1.20
1.7
0.51

-0.28
-1.9
-0.05

237.98 238.46 245.30

0 .2

2.9

L.L.L.... Bil. dol

Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ...
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio
L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ...

573.43 583.15 583.15 588.18
630.89 638.43 638.43 645.87
88.37
88.37
89.69
87.62
1.55

1.56

1.55

1.56

217.30 214.24 214.24 2 1 4 . 3 1

45.1

1.53

-20.3

30

B6. Prices. Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials©
•99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3

L,L,L... Percent
U,L,L... 1967=100
L,L,L... Percent

Stock Prices:
•19. Stock prices, 500 common s t o c k s ©

U.L.... 1941-43=10...

Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
in 1982 dollars
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business

L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol
do
L,L,L...
do
L,C,L...
LC L
do
L,L,L... Cents
1977 — 100
L,Lrl

140.3
135.3
169.3
164.7
4.6
99.0

131.4
123.1
188.9
181.0
3.8
98 .8

139.4
130.1
189.2
180 .2
3.6
98.2

135.2
124.8
207.3
196.6
3.6
99.0

Cash Flows:
34. Corporate net cash flow
15 Cnrnorate net cash flow in 1982 dollars

L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol
LL L
do

350.4
316.3

376.0
317.1

389.4
329.4

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg,Lg,lg.... 1977 = 100
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfirtancial corporations
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Actual data
Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977=100
•b) Actual data as percent of trend3
L g , l * U » - Percent
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
do
national income3
Lg,Lg,Lg....

-0.37
278.9
-0.19
160.46

-0.2 2
244.8
-0.42

-0.01
235.5
-0.21

1 .08
-3.9
0.06

98
23
99

11.7

9.4

19

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
99.1

-3.0
-4.1
9.6
9.1
0.
0 .8

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

0 .1

16
18
79
80
15
26

380.9
325.2

NA
NA

-2.2
- 1 .3

NA

-0.29
231.1
-0.26

0.79
222.1
-0.2 0

186.84 196.96 219.96 2 4 0 . 5 8

1.99
219.9
-0.59

0.79
221.3
-0.26

NA

34
35

159.9

166.1

167.3

167.0

167 . 4

-0.2

0.690

0.708

0.716

0.721

NA

0.7

NA

68

134.7
88.2

137.3
85.0

138.3
83.9

138.6
82.8

138.4
81 . 6

0.2
-1.1

-0.1
- 1 .2

62
62

73 0

73.5

73.7

73.7

NA

NA

64

0.82
0.64
NA
4.4
3.0

85
102
104
105
106

138.0
81.7

138.4
81 .6

138.7
81.4

0.3
-0.1

0.2
-0.2

0.

0.2

63

B7. Money and Credit
Money:
"85. Change in money supply M l '
102. Change in money supply M2J
104 Change in total liquid assets3
105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars
•106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars

_

Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply M l 1
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2'
Credit
33.
112
113.
•111.
110.

Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt3
Net change in business loans3
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers

Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted1)3 s




do
L,L,L...
do
L,C,U.,..
do
L.L.L..
Bil. cfol
L,L,L...
do
L,L,L...

C,C,C... Ratio
do
C,Lg,C...

L,L;L... A.r., bil.dol
do
L,L,L...
do
L,L,L...
A.r., percent
L,L,L...
L,L,L... Ar bil dol

L,Lrl—

Percent, EOP ...

1 ,21
0.82
0.63
1.21
1 .93
0.48
1.45
0.96
0.77
1 .00
0.48
0.33
0.97
1.14
0.69
0.65
NA
0.82
NA
0.86
0.46
0.58
0.92
0.69
582.2
588.5
549.2
557.8
574.0
584.1
506.0
532.9
2116.6 2229.5 2259.4 2275.4 2 3 4 3 . 5 2328.4 2347.5 2354.7
6.914
1 .365

6.736
1.334

6.590
1.326

6.563
1.331

78.96 100.37
26.00
99.76
56.24
-8.02
22.76
53.11
63.36
81.52
74.71
77.34
6.8
12.8
10.5
15.8
56 9 9 2 6 75 93 965 41 504 26
2.09

2,32

2.32

2.41

6.365
1.316

1.313

1.304

NA
NA
- 7 . 6 6 -40.32
NA 51.55
4.8
2.7
NA

NA
21.73
64.67
8.0

NA
-4.40
NA
3.7

NA

NA

NA

NA

1 .330

0.72
-0.14
0.24
1.8
0.8

-0.72
-0.23
NA
0.8
0.3

-0.017 -0.009

-0.19
-0.15
-0.40
1 .6
0.7

-0.027 - 0 . 1 9 8
0.005 - 0 . 0 1 5

NA - 7 4 . 3 7
NA
62.05 - 2 6 . 1 3 - 6 4 . 2 6
13.12
NA - 1 1 . 3 5
-6.0
5.3
-4.3
-47 .8
NA

NA

-0.09

107
108

NA
0.36
NA
-2.0
NA

33
112
113
111
110

NA

39

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change

Basic data*
Series title and timing classification

Unit
of
measure

1

Annual average
1984

1985

4th Q
1985

1st Q
1986

2dQ
1986

Apr.

May
1986

June
1986

Apr.
to
May
1986

May
to
June
1986

4th Q
to
1st Q

1st Q
to
2d Q

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7. Money and Credit-Cm.

Bank Reserves:
53. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 8 ®
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 ©
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate3 ©
114, Discount rate on new Treasury b i l l s 3 ©
116. Yield on new high-grade corporate b o n d s 1 ©
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 0
117. Yield on municipal bonds5 ©
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages 3 ©
67, Bank rates on short-term business loans3 ©
*109. Average prime rate charged by banks 8 ©
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding*
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income3

L,U,U... Mil. dot..
..do
L,Lg,U....
l,Lg,Lg.... Percent
do..
C,Lg,Lg....
do..
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do..
C.Lg.Lg....
do..
U,Lg,Lg....
do..
Lg.Lg.Lg....
do..
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do..
lg,Lg,lg....
Lg,Lg,lg,.., Bil. dol., EOP.
Lg,Lg,lg.... Bil. dol
lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg.

do

-3,046
3,730

-492
1,321

-502
1,415

230
80 5

5
857

-92
893

-38
876

145
803

-54
-17

-183
-73

-732
-610

225
52

10.22
9.57
13.37
11.99
10.10
13.82
12.02
12.04

8.10
7.49
11.75
10.75
9.10
12.24
9.74
9.93

8.10
7.15
11.03
10.08
8.68
11.28
9.68
9.50

7.83
6.89
9.68
8.90
7.53
10.38
9.29
9.37

.92
.13
.06
.95
.54
.95
8.13
8.61

6.99
6.06
8.71

6.85
6.12
9.09
8.02
7.54
10.07

6.92
6.21
9.39
8.23
7.87
9.98

-0.14
0.06
0.38
0.43
0.34
0.27

0.07
0.09
0.30
0,21
0.33
-0.09

-0.91
-0.76
-0.62
-0.95
0.01

8.83

8.50

8.50

-0.33

0.

-0.27
-0.26
-1.35
-1.18
-1.15
-0.90
-0.39
-0.13

453.58 535.10 535.10 550.94
NA 555.24 560.62
NA
299.66 331.65 339.29 344.30 338.96 337.88 339.69 339.32

1.0
0.5

NA
-0.1

3.0
1.5

NA
-1.6

289.04 321.52 328.44 338.44 339.63 339.58 339.69 339.62

0.

0.

3.0

0.4

-0.76

Percent

13.45

15.02

15.64

15.94

NA

15.93

16.13

NA

0.20

NA

0.30

1982 = 100...
1967 = 100...
Percent
1967=100...
do

111.5
322.2
0.3
309.8
308.8
323.9
306.2
318.7
300.5
291.9

112.8
326.5
0.5
313.2
309.2
324.7
305
318.7
303.3
294.4

113.5
327.3
-0.2
314.6
304.5
318.9
289.8
314.1
303.8
288.7

114.1
326.5
0.1
316.0
298.7
311.5
272.9
306.6
305.5
283.0

325.3
-0.3
315.0
297.9
311 .3
269.7
307.0
305.3
281 .5

326.3
0.2
316.4
299.2
311 .7

...do
...do

107.9
311.1
0.3
302,9
310.3
322.6
331 .0
320.0
294.1
290.4

275.9
306.3
305.5
283.8

327.9
0
316.7
298.9
311.6
273 .0
306.4
305.7
283 .6

0.3
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.1
2.3
-0,2
0.1
0.8

0.5
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.
-1.1
0.
0.1
-0.1

0.6
0.2
-0.7
0.4
-1.5
-1.8
-5
-1.4
0.2
-1.9

0.5
-0.2
0.3
0.4
-1.9
-2.3
-5
-2.4
0.6
-2.0

1977 = 100...

160.7

165.5

166.9

168.0

168.8

168.4

168.6

169.4

0.1

0.5

0.7

0.5

94.6
167.5
97.7
105.2
104.1

94.1
173.6
97.8
105.4
104.0

94.0
176.2
98.0
106.4
104.5

94.3
177.6
98.4
107.3
105.6

95.4
178.5
99.3
107.7
106.1

95.4

95.4

95.3

-0.1

0.3
0.8
0,4
0.8
1.1

1.2
0.4
0.5

0.5
0.4
2.3
2.5
0.5
5.6
1 .5

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
B l . Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
335.
331.
332.
333.
334.

Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) © . . . .
Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3
Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food
Producer price index (PPI), all commodities ©
PPI, industrial commodities ©
PPI, crude materials for further processing
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components......
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods

...do
,..do

B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector...
370. Output per hour, business sector,
358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
,

do

do
...do...
..do..,
...do..

0.

C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.

Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed, full-time workers

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451. Males 20 years and over5
452. Females 20 years and over3
453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age9

Millions
..do..
Thousands..
...do
...do

...do
Percent...
...do...
...do...

78.3
53.7
53.9

78.1
54.7
54.5

78.1
54.9
54.4

78.3
55.0
54.5

78.1
55.4
55.3

78,0
55.1
55.7

78.1
55.4
55.6

78.2
55.7
54.7

0.4
0.2
2.5
6.4
0.9
-3.2
3.7

0.4
0.5
-1 .3
-1.8
-0.7
-1.3
-4.0

0.7
0 .7
1 .2
2.0
2.0
-2.4
1 .3

0.1
0.3
-0.1

0 .1
0.3
-0,9

0.2
0.1
0.1

-0.2
0.4
0.8

16.0
-0.7
-2.1
7.5
2.6
1.6

113.54 115.46 116.16 117.03 117.67 117.23 117.66 118.12
105.00 107.15 108.00 108.77 109.22 108.89 109.11 109.67
8,539
8,312
8,162
8,259
8,446 8,342 8,554 8,443
3,932
3,715
3,633
3,705
3,796 3,663 3,897 3,827
3,107
3,129
3,033
3,094
3,109 3,097 3,125 3,104
1,499
1,468
1,532
1,496
1,460
1,512
1,542 1,582
7,057
6,793
7,037
6,674
6,758 6,859 6,7 83
6,756

NA
NA
3.8
NA
NA
2.4

D. Government Activities
D l . Receipts and Expenditures
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.

Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit3
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures

517.
525.
548.
557.
570.
564.

Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs.' new orders, defense products
Industrial production, defense and space equipment
Employment, defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense

A.r., bil.dol..
...do..
...do...
...do...
...do...
...do...

•170.0 - 1 9 8 . 0 - 2 1 7 . 6 - 2 0 1 . 6
NA
805.8
800.0
7 26.5 786.8
NA
984.9 1023.4 1001.5 1039.6
896.5
61.7
68.5
NA
62.5
70.0
577.5
540.8
NA
592.7
608.4
515.8
472.4
530.2
538.5
551.2

D2. Defense Indicators
Mil. dol
....do..
....do
1977 = 100,..

Thousands
A.r., bil. doL.

22,437 26,863 28,402 29,469
12,9 42 12,240 11,586 12,370
7,452
8,022
6,714
9,332
157 .9
173.6
178.2
180.0
1,544
1,438
1 ,589
1,578
259.4
235.0
266.4
268.0

NA 28,162 29,221
NA 12,855 8,849
8,173 6,500 8,430
179.3 178.8 179.5
NA 1,594 1,598
277.5

NA
NA
9,589
179.7
NA

3.8
-31.2
29.7
0.4
0.3

NA
NA
13.7
0.1
NA

3.8
6.8
39.0
-1.0
0.7
-0,6

NA
NA
-12.4
0.6
NA
4.2

-3.0
-4.1
-8.5
5.2
30.4
0.2

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

2.5
-6.7
4.8
2.3
-3.4
0.2

NA
NA

E. U.S. International Transactions
E l . Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Imports of automobiles and parts




Mil. dol...
..do..
..do..,
...do..,
..do...

18,137 17,772 17,456 17,884
3,146
2,426 2,408 2,2 46
3,875
3,917 3,781 3,963
27,133 28,838 30,256 30,957
4,689
4,180 4,419 4,270
3,7 87
4,688 5,139 5,147

NA
NA

17,964 17,430
2,043
1,960
3,981
3,644
2 8 , 7 6 2 30,272
2,084
2,718
5,044
5,054

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1

Percent chang >

Unit'
Series title

Annual average

of
measure

1984

1983

1985

1st Q
1985

2dQ
1985

3d Q
1985

4th Q
1985

1st Q
1986

3dQ
to
4th Q
1985

2dQ
1986

E
4th Q
to
1st Q
1986

1st C
to
2dQ
1986

M

II. (DTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667
668.
669
622
618
620
651.
652.

Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade3
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Income on U.S investment abroad
Income on foreign investment in the United States

Bil.

dol
do
do
do
do
do
....do
do

-9,
83.
92.
-16.
50.
67.
19.
13.

28 - 2 3 . 58 - 2 5 . 67 - 2 2 . 8 3
9 0 . 03
32
88.04
8 9 . 62
S
O 1 1 3 . SO 1 1 5 . 30 1 1 0 . 8 7
77 - 2 8 . M - 3 1 . 11 - 2 5 . 0 4
Vf>
5 4 . =)8
55.32
5 3 . F> 1
22
8 3 . 10
80.37
8 4 . 72
2 1 , . 56
2 2 . 50
31
18.73
10
1 6 . 20
16,, 87
16.51

-25.
89.
115.
-30.
53.
84.
22.
16.

96 - 2 4 . 4 5 - 2 9 . %5 -30.64
90.23
90 . 37
35
91.60
31 114.69 1 2 0 . 32 1 2 2 . 2 4
37 - 3 1 .68 - 3 7 . 35 - 3 6 . 5 8
5 2 . 73
53.55
B8
52.50
90.13
24
84.17
9 0 . )8
24.24
24.50
2 4 . 51
25
17 .42
80
16.24
1 5 . 25

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

-1.19
0.8
1.6
0.77
1.6
0.1
-1.1
14.2

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

667
668
669
622
618
620
651
652

1 .4
0,5
0.3
0.7
1.8
0.6
0.4

1.5
0.9
0.7
-0.3
1.8
1 .6
1.4

0 .8
.3
.1
0 .8
1 .5
1.8
1 .5

200
50
217
213
224
225
227

-5.00
0.7
4,9
-5.67
0.4
7.0
0.
-6.1

A. National Income and Product
A l . GNP and Personal Income
200
50.
217.
213.
224
225.
227.

230.
231
232
233
236
238
237
239

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Durable goods
Durable goods in 1982 dollars
Nondurable goods
Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars
Services
Services in 1982 dollars

240
241
242
243
245
30.

Ar bil dol
....do
A.r .dollars ....
A.r , bil. dol.
do
. . do . ...
A.r .dollars

Gross national product
Gross national product in 1982 dollars
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
Final sales in 1982 dollars
Disposable personal income
Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars

3 40 5. 7
3279.1
13,963
3285.5
2428.1
2331.9
9,930

3765 . 0 3988 .1
3489.9 3 5 8 5 . 2
14,721 14,981
3430.7 3576.2
2670.6 2 8 2 8 . 0
2470.6 2 5 2 8 . 0
10,421 1 0 , 5 6 3

3 9 0 9 . 3 3965 .0 4030.5
3547.0 3567.6 3603.8
14,874 14,928 1 5 , 0 4 1
3523.9 3550.2 3 6 0 3 . 1
2755.4 2842.3 2 8 3 2 . 0
2495.7 2550.8 2 5 2 4 . 7
10,466 10,674 10,537

4087 . 7
3622.3
15,080
3627.5
2882.2
2540.7
10,577

4149.2 4182.3
3655.9 3665.7
15,188 15,197
3 6 1 6 . 1 3646 . 1
2935.1 2979.2
2581 .2 2 6 2 6 . 6
10 ,723 1 0 , 8 8 9

, bil. dol
do
do
do
do
, . do
do
do

2234.5
2146 .0
289 .1
283 . 1
8 1 6 .7
800 .2
1128 . 7
1 0 6 2 .7

2428.2
2 2 46. 3
331 . ?
318 .9
870 .1
8 2 8 .6
1227 .0
1098 .7

2600.5
2324 . 5
359 .3
343 . 9
90 5 . 1
841 .6
1336 . 1
1139 .0

2530.9
2292.3
347 .7
332.3
888.2
834.3
1294.9
1125.8

2627.1
2342.0
373.3
357.4
907.4
843.8
1346.4
1140.8

2667.9
2351 .7
362 .0
347 .0
922 . 6
847 .2
1383 . 2
1157 .5

2697.9
2372.7
360.8
345.4
929.7
860.6
1407.4
1166.6

2730.1
2407.0
374.7
357.5
926.0
875.5
1429.4
1173.9

1 ,6
0.4
-3.0
-2,9
1.7
0.4
2.7
1 .5

1.1
0.9
-0.3
-0.5
0.8
1.6
1 .7
0.8

1 .2
1 .4
3 .9
3 .5
- 0 .4
1 .7
1 .6
0 .6

230
231
232
233
236
238
237
239

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Fixed investment
Fixed investment in 1982 dollars
Change in business inventories1
Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3

0
0

A2, Personal Consumption Expenditures
A.r

.

..

2576.0
2311 . 9
354 .0
338 .8
902 .3
841 . 3
1319 . 7
1131 . 8

A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
502
504
509
810
-7
-6

.3
.0
.4
.4
.1
.4

662
652
598
592
64
59

,1
.0
.0
,8
.1
.2

661 .1
647 .7
650 .0
638 . 6
11 . 1
9 .0

650.6
638.2
625.2
615.0
25.4
23.2

667
655
648
638
19
17

.1
.6
.0
.1
.1
.4

657.4
643.8
654.3
643 . 1
3.1
0.7

669
653
672
658
-3
-5

.5
.2
.6
.4
.1
.2

708.3
684.0
664.4
644.1
43.8
39.9

691.4
667.6
671.9
648.0
19.5
19.6

1 .8
1.5
2.8
2.4
-6.2
-5.9

5.8
4.7
-1.2
-2.2
46.9
45.1

- 2 .4
- 2 .4
1 .1
0 .6
- 2 4 .3
-20 .3

240
241
242
243
245
30

do
do
do
do
do
do

675
649
283
275
391
373

.0
.0
.5
.1
,s
.9

733
675
311
291
422
383

.4
.7
.3
.7
?
.5

815 . 4
7 2 1 .7
354 . 1
323 . 6
461 , 3
397 . 6

777 . 3
695.3
333.7
305.8
443.5
389.5

799 .0
708 . 3
340 .9
311 . 4
458 . 1
396 . 9

829.7
731.8
360.9
329.9
468.8
401.9

855 . 6
749 . 4
380 . 9
347 . 2
47 4 . 7
40 2 . 2

836.7
725.2
355.7
320.4
480.9
404.8

857.2
737.5
364.8
325.1
492.4
412.4

3.1
2.4
5.5
5.2
1.3
0.1

-2.2
-3.2
-6.6
-7.7
1 .3
0.6

2 ,5
1 ,7
2 .6
1 .5
2 .4
1 .9

260
261
262
263
266
267

do
do
do
do
do
do

.

do
do
do ... .
do
do
do. . .

-6
-19
352
348
358
368

,1
.9
.5
.1
.7
.1

-58
-83
382
369
441
453

7
.6
.7
.7
.4
.2

- 7 8 ,9
-108 . 2
369 . 8
36 2 . 3
448 . 6
470 . 5

-49.4
-78.8
378.4
369.4
427.9
448.2

.1
.0
.2
.9
.6
.8

-93.7
-125.9
374.8
369.2
46 8.5
495.1

-96.4
-146.3
375.6
371.9
472.0
518.3

-21.6
-18.2
1.6
2.0
6.2
5.4

11.6
6.1
1 .8
1.7
-1.1
0.1

3287 . 3
2423 . 6
262 . 1
8 .3
285 . 6
307 . 6

33 4 0 . 7
2461 .5
265.3
12.8
296.4
304.9

NA
2478.8
288.0
15.1
NA
299.1

1.4
1.8
5.1
13.7
-3.6
-0.7

1.6
1.6
1.2
54.2
3.8
-0.9

NA
0 .7
8 .6
18 . 0
NA
- 1 .9

220
280
282
284
2 86
288

.1
.5
.8
.1
.4

5 83.2
569.2
145.6
- 1 3 1 .6
5.0

NA
NA
155.7
NA
5.2

-3.2
-1.2
5.2
-17.1
0.2

11.3
2.8
15.7
23.5
0.6

NA
NA
6 .9
NA
0 .2

290
295
292
298
293

A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
260
261
262
263.
266
267.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Federal Government
Federal Government in 1982 dollars
State and local government
State and local government in 1982 dollars

250
255.
252.
256.
253.
257.

Net exports of goods and services3
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3
Exoofts of Goods and services
Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
Imports of goods and services

220
280.
282.
284.
286.
288

National income
Compensation of employees . .
..
..
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdi
Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj.
Net interest..

A5. Foreign Trade

Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

-77
-108
370
361
447
469

.1
.1
.0
.2
.1
.3

- 8 3 . 7 -105
- 1 1 3 .8 - 1 3 2
368
362.3
355.8
362
446 .0
473
46 9 . 6
494

-2
-20
0
0
0
4

.7
.4
.2
.7
.7
.7

250
255
252
256
253
257

A6. National Income and Its Components
..do. . . 2719 . 5
.do.
.
2020 . 7
. do . .
190 . 9
do
13 . 2
... d o . . . 213 . 7
281 0
.do.
.

.

3032 . 0 3222 . 1 3157 . 0 3201 . 4
2214 . 7 2368 . 2 2 3 1 6 . 3 2352 . 1
255 . 5
236 . 9
250.7
254 . 4
8 .1
8 .3
6 .8
7 .6
.7
.7
274 . 3
264
266.4
2 80
311 , 4
307 /,
316.8
311 4

3243.4
2380.9
249.3
7.3
296.3
309.7

A7. Saving
290
295
292.
298.
293.

Gross saving

.

...do . . . .

. . .

...do . . . .

Business saving
Personal saving

.

do

Government surplus or deficit 3

.. . . d o

Personal saving rate 3

Percent. . .

463
461
130
-128
5

f>
573
fi
506 1
.6
168 . 7
.6 - 1 0 1 .5
.4
6 .3

551 5
S
544 •
143 . 3
-136 . 3
5.1

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk ( * ) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
'The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.




573.2
525.6
144.1
-96.6
5.2

566
538
183
-155
6

.8
.9
.6
.6
.5

541 . 7
560.1

119.6
-138.0
4.2

524
553
125
-155
4

1
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
'Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
s
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
|A |

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart A l . Composite Indexes
July toy
P

T

Aug. Apr.
P

T

Apr. Feb.
P

T

Dee. Ney.
P T

Nov.

Mar.

P

T

Jaa.Jj'jjf W y

P T'

P

Nov.

T

: 1967 = 1001
190-

180 -

910. Index of twelve leading indicators

1/0-

(series 1, 5, 8,12,19,20,29,32,36,99,106,111)

180150140130120110100-

170-

920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators
(series 4 1 , 4 7 , 5 1 , 5 j j
!|

V^^^TIi

160 150140-

: o

.z:

130 -

+i

120-

4-4-

190-

930. Index of six lagging indicators
(series 62, 77, 91, 95,101,109)

40 J

19B0S1 52 53 §4 5S SS 57

§4 SB 86 1987

NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

10



JULY 1986

ItCII

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued
July May
P T

Jan, July July Nov.
P T
P
T

[Into; 1367^1001

JatK), piRiident tnc|eK to laggingjoidex

I

if

$

f

;

;

j

,

VUM La, a ij >, ;A; j ^ i.j >.i 'mm uu y s si'S¥; . ; ' ^ f ^ t^ ^ i r ^ %$M WM ¥$W :<M^ Mu i W'ct fc'-m Iwtiivfy
.

r

\\

, ;: ,

; :.• i>, .•;;
•:.

-.ij

,,:.,. f i .

: i .ii

•;;;:>.,.•';,;:,•;;>;:;;;

\', ^ \ "•' f''•• •;T! ij\M u-f< • i"t;V'i;; f:ft;: v- f?i • • y?=r''::-t1 {f\f:::\:! > ;T til i I M R •!';: •: . -:.: •:^ '/' •'';'" ''' • '"'
•

1 9 5 0 5 2 5 2 5 3 5 4 5 5 5 ® 5 7 5 B 5 9 ® 0 6 1 § 2 6 3 6 4 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 3 6 9 7 0 7 1 7 2 7 3 7® 7 5 7 © 7 7 7 8 J § 8 © 8 1 8 2 S 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 1 9 8 7
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

JULY 1986



11

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components
July May
P

Aug. Apr.

T

P

Pie. i\!ev.

Apr. Feb.

T

P

P

T

T

Wey.

Mar.

Jan, Juty July

H&i,

P

T

F T P

I

1. Averse weekly M i r s of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours)

wjBfild^uiiftwiJG^^
State programs (thousands—inverted scale)

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials industries (bil. dol.) [ F E T l ""' r =

m Vendor bertormahce, percenfof conffanfes"receiving slower
i deliveries Cnercent)

12. Net businessjormation (index: 1967-100)
ill

: 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipments
^
1982 dollars (by. dol.)

1950 5 1

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

§9

60

61

62

63 m 65 6® ®? S8 ©§ 70

7i 11

Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, 65, and 66.

12



JULY 1986

KCII

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
July May
P T

Aug. Apr.
P T

Apr. Feb.
P T

Dec. Nov.
P T

Nov.
P

Mar.
T

Jan. July July
P T P

Nov
T

29. New private housing units authorized by local
building permits ^ i n c t e 1967.—109)
l.LL

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bit. dol.)

99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)

\

106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(artn. rate, percent) _ [XX L

fill
=101950 51 52 53 36 5S 5G 57 50 53

82 S3 04

67

7(a 71 72 73 74

n ?a

'This is a weighted 4 - t e r m moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 7 1 , and 72.

licit

JULY 1986




13

A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
liiiy May
P

!

Aufv A^f,
{»

]

Apr. h;b.
P

T

Dec. Nov.
P

Now,

Mar.

P

T

T

Jan.My J d ^
P T

P

few
I

41. Employees on ^^agricultural payrois (mions)

51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 ddars (arm. rate, N.dol.)

47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100)

cxic

57. Manufacturing and trade sates in
1982 dollars (btdoJ,)
OCX

71 72

S3L a s a s

Current data for these *erl«s are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

14



JULY 1986

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
July May
P T

Aug. Apr.
P T

Apr. Feb.
P T

Jan.July July Nov.
P T P
T

faragi Sliate iifi6m(il6yiiE!ifrt

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data

1Q9| Jlveraglprime riiphargecfi y hanks, (percent)

1Q§ eomm|!ia|andiigustria) loans outstanding in 198?

SO 6 1 ®2 S3
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

JULY 1986




1
5

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
Apr.
P

Hb.

Dec.

Nov.

P

T

Now.

Mar.

T

Jan. July
F

T

July
P

Nov.
T

I Marginal Employment Adjustments!
1. Average weekly hours of production ornonsupervisory workers,
manufacturin£(hours)
40-

ma

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours) | L , C L |

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (thousands—inverted scale) i

tm-t

300-

400500-

[job Vacancies |

700fifl Batin haln-Miantari arivartranir in nflwsnantfs ta number

1.4-1

of persons unemployed (ratio) i . .
1.0-

1

160-

4g, Help-wanted adveffemg in newspapers jfirtdex: 1967=100)

120100-

60-*

19S9 60

61

%Z

§3

©4

©i

S©

<Bl

Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .

1
6




JULY 1986

KCII

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Jan. July
P

T

July

Nov.

P

T

I Comprehensive Employment!

48. Employee hours in nonagncultural establishments
, fail, hours)
(ann.

42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions)

nonagncultural payrolls (millions)

40. Employees on; nonagncultural payrolls, goods-producing
industries (millions)
l

90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (percent)

1959

6
@

61

6;

!3

84

SS 1986

Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62.

KCII

JULY 1986



1
7

CYCLICAL IWDBCMOiS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Dee.
P

Apr.

Nov.
1

Now.
P

Mar.
T

Jan. July
P T

July
•p

Nov
T

| Comprehensive Unemployment [
37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale)

43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)

ulu

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale)

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)

m

m Jifjas

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.

1
8




JULY 1986

ItCII

B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income
Apr.

Feb.

Dec.

T

P

T

Jan. July

Nov.

P

P

T

F

T

July
P

fc
T

[Comprehensive Output and Income |

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (ana rate, bil. doi.)

52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (arm. rate, bil. dol.)
OCX

Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars

53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing
and construction (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.

K C I I JULY 1986




19

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
Apr.
P

Mi

Nov.
P

T

fan. July

July

I

[Industrial Production]
47. Industrial production (index: 1977-100)
C,C,C

73. Industrial production, durable manufactures
(index::1977-100)
•;

74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(index: 1977 H 0 0 )
C.LL

49. Vafue of goods output in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bit. dol.)

| Capacity Utilization 1
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent)

84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent)

?»•

1959

©
@

©E

^

©3

m

§B

S(S

i

©1
1

©2

$3

i^

§B ?16

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.

20




JULY 1986

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Dec.

P

T

| Orders and Deliveries 1

Nov.

Nov.

P

Apr. Feb.

T

P

War.

Jan. I j ' y
P

T

7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods,
industries (bit. dol.) K
4iflrL|

6, Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars,
:.,= durable goods industries (biL doi)__ _ _ __

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. dol.)

25, Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (bil. dol.;

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries

dot.) r

j

-

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
(percent) . _ .
_

85 1936
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

JULY 1986



21

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued

P

KOT.

Kev,

Apr. Feb.

p

T

to.
I

Jan. iuly
P T

]u!y NOT.
p'
T

I Consumption and Trade!
57. Manufacturing and trade
in 1982 dollars (bi. dot.)
€,€,€

56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(NLdoL)

75. Industrial production, consumer goods
(index: 1977=100)

C.L.C

59. Sales of reta|stores in 1982 dollars (bit. dpi.)
U.L.U

54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (bi. dol)

cTu

55. Persona! consumption expenditures,
automobiles, Q (arm. rate, biL dol.)

Hex
58. Index of consumer sentiment (1st Q 1966-100)

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

22



JULY 1986

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Apr. Feb.
P
T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Nov.
P

i.July
T

July
P

Nov.
T
160 •

1 Formation of Business Enterprises]

140 -

12. Net business formation (index: 1967=

120:-*

106 *

60-

13. New business incorporations (thousands)
L

"30-

3530*
25 -

1 Business Investment Commitments | .,_ ^

20-

20; Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in current dollars (bil. dol.) n i l
27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries (bil. dol.) \TJJ\
3025 -

15-

24. Manufacturers' new orders In current dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries (bil. dol.) r f f [

10

J

no 100°

70 H

Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings (mil. sq. ft. of floor space; MCD moving avg,

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

JULY 1986




23

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Apr,

Fell,

F

1

Jan. July
P

T

F

T

July
P

[to.
T

| Business Investment Commitments—Con,

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (bil. dol.)

11; Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations, Q (bil. dol.)

100. Expenditures in 1982 dollars for new plant and equipment^
Q (ann. rate, bl. dol.)
| Business Investment Expenditures |
61. Expenditures in current dollars for new plant and
equipment, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.)

69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

76. Industrial production, business equipment
(index: 1977^100) [ c J ^

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

24



JULY 1986

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T

Dec.

Nov.

P
f

1 Business investment Expenditures—Con7|
,
1

;

Nov.

T
~ -

!•

•

P

Mar
T

Jan. July July
P I P

Wow.
T

--- r

Jj

}\

[\

r
: • ;
^ ' ;
;.• j
II
ii
Gross private nonresidenttai fixed investment in 1982 dollars (arm. rate, bil. dot.)
;

86. Total, Q

|

20CH

120-

1 Residential; Construction Commitments and Investment |j!

28. New private housing units started

luX

2.2°2.0-

1.0°

29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits
(index: 1967^100)

2@0180-=

Gross private residential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
160 =
120 =

1959 i®

§11

%t

(S3

M

3g

72

/3

04

<J>t>

1906

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

IICII

JULY 1986



25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Apr.

Feb.

Dec.

Nov.

P

T

P

T

[ Inventory Investment]

P T

P

30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dolars, Q (ana rate, bil. do).)

full

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order
in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. do!.; moving avg.—4-term1)

31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories, book value
(ann. rate, bil. do).; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order, book value (bil. dol; MCD moving avg.—4-term)

s^

§s

i^

©s 3®
i@

'This Is a weighted 4-term moving average {with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

26



JULY 1986

ItCII

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5, Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P

Dec.

[inventories on Hand and, on. Order |

Nov.

Nov.

Mar.

P

T

T

P

T

Jan. July
P

T

July

Nov.

P

T

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 19$2 dollars (bil. dol.)
|Lg,lg,Lg|

\

71. Manufacturing and trade inventories,
bookMieibiLdol.)

65. Manufacturers1 inventories, finished pods*
book value (bil. dol.)

77. Ratio, manufacturing and tradejnventories to satesjnJ982 dollars^
< ratk) > lLg,Lg,Lg

78. Manufacturers' inventories,
and on order, book

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

Bill JULY 1986



27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Apr,

Fell

Dee.

Nev.

P

T

P

T

| Sensitive Commodity Prices |

to.
P

Mar.
T

kii
P

>Iy

July

Mew.

T

P

7'

98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and
intermediate materials (percent; MCD moving avg.—6:term)

99. Change in sensitive materials prices (percent; moving

avg.-4~terml) [ITT

"tit::.;:
23. Spot market prides, raw industrial materials2 (index: 1967 = 100)

19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10)

[Profits and Profit Margins]

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dtflars, Q
(ann. rate, Ml. dot.) |~[~[T

16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. doJ.)

1999 60

61

62

'This Is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
"Beginning with data for June 1 9 8 1 , this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

28



JULY 1986 K C I I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Jan. July
P

T

July

Nov.

P

T

80. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bit. dol.

1 Profits and Profit Margins—Con.

79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
current dollars, Q (aim. rate, bil. do!.)

LCl

22.. Ratio, ffrporate domestic profits after tax to corporate
domestic income, Q (percent)
"""""

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and
CCAdj to corporate domestic income, Q (percent)
^
J j L t? r P^Oft e r _l a M s £ e r d °lj a !' tf sales, manufacturing corporations, Q (cents)

m
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
business sector. 0 (index: 1977-106)

35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars, Q

34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars, Q
(ami. rate, bil. do!.)

1959 6©

84

83 1986

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

BCII JULY 1986



29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Apr.

Dee. R!ew.
P
1

Fell.

P

Y

Nov.

Jin. July

P

I

July

P

fflw.

T

[Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share I

63. Unit labor cost, business sector, Q
(index: 1977-100) r j 7 [ 7 [

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in
1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations, Q (dollars)

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1977-100)
"^

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income
Q (percent)

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30



JULY 1986

ItCII

B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit
Apr. Feb.
P

T

Dee, Nov.
P T

Nov.

Mar.

P

T

Jan. July July
F T P

Mow.
T

85. Change irt money supply M l
_ _
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) I LL,Lj t

102. Change in money supply M2
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

105. Money supply M l in 1982 dollars (bil. do).)

106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bH. dot.)

Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l

| Velocity of Money |
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (ratio)

Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 .

BCII

JULY 1986



31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Kau.

Dec. New.
P
T

Apr. Feb.
P
T

Jun.Jyly
P T

M@ir.

July Nov.
P
T
+ 160«

[Credjit Flowsj

+140*
+120-

33, Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

+100-

TiPuTI

8
+40+20-

112. Net change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dol.;
MCD moving avg.—6-term) [, , L i

113. Net change in consumer installment credit:
(ann. rate, biL do!.; MCD moving avgM-term)

111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) | L,L,L

A-

VW^S**

-*itt*~*bfi**aiff^A

• V v ^ ^ ^ V ^

1

+io«

^ ^ ^

0-10-

12001000-

A

110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets, Q (ann. (jate, bil. dol.) i . . . i !

5

800-

600§00400-

^ ^ T T A

1999

80

U

B2

63

B4

SS

66 67

84

SB 1980

Current data for these series are shown on pages 7 1 and 7 2 .

32



JULY 1986

BCII

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P

Dec.

Nov.

P

T

Wov.

Mar.

P

•

T

T

Jan. July
P

T

July

Nov.

P

T

I Credit Difficulties!

{&

14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil. do!.—
» < inverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
,
100-

•* "it,

200 =

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over
(percent—inverted scale) .

93. Free reserves (bil. dol.—inverted scale)

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bii. dot.)

1959

SO

61

®4

8S 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

JULY 1986



33

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
P

ten, July
p T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

I

July
P

Key.
I

Interest Rates |

119. Federal funds rate (percent)—r-

. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day
Treasury bills (percent)

116. Yield on new issues of Nrfi-grade corporate bonds

(percent) f t i l i l F l

>

. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (percent)
C,

Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (percent)

Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (percent)

iss© i©

<BI ®% (S3

m

m

s© a

Currant data for thota ierle« art shown on pages 72 and 73.

34




JULY 1986

ItCII

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P

Jan. July

T

T

July

Nov.

P

T

nterest Rates—Con,
109* Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding m
1982 dollars (bi. do!.)
|Outstanding Debt]

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in current dollars (bil. dol.)

66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (bil. dol.)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income

(percent) [tiTT

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

JULY 1986



35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
Dec. Urn.
P T

Apr. Feb.
P

T

Mar.

Jan. July
F

T

950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span

T

July
P

Nov.
T

, 1-mo. s p a n - — )

951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span

, 1-mo. s p a n - — )

ye-

952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )
100 ^

961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervtsory workers, 20
manufacturing industries (9-i

180-

D8-

962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas
(percent declining; 9-mo.span^^. 1-mo, span - ^ )

so-

963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries
p. span— rft1-mo.

100-

H8-

1999

60

SI

S2

©3

64

Si

S3

§4

S3

1988

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.

36




JULY 1986

ItCII

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Nov. Mar.
P
T

Jan. July
P T

July
P

| Percent rising]

964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries
(9-mo. span—»1-mo. span---)

965. N l w ^
j ^

HQM.
T

inT§72 dollars, 17
I-Q $pan»;^»)

966. Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. span

-, 1-mo. span---)
100"

§0-

0-

967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials
(9-mo. span-—H 1-mo. span---) jj

100-

§0-

0-

968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 42-82 industries
(9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-.-)

50-

LH-11M.

960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span)

01

84

85 1986

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

JULY 1986



37

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
(liar.
I

P

kn. kly
P T

Iclv
f

Actual
——
Anticipated • • •

Percent rising j

ki)j
s
*

Actual

«" ' i •'•

Anticipated

•••••••

970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment,
21 industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures

HOH)

974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

(b) Later projections
975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

| 1--..

(a) Actual expenditures

f projections

971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

976. Seing prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

977. Sefng prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1

:«V»*X .A*

973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

00-

978. Seing prices, retai trade (4-Q span)1

l

TM% \t a copyrighted terlet ut«d by pormlwlon; It may not be reproduced without written permlt$lon from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradttreet diffusion Indexes art b a u d on surveys of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

38




JULY 1986

Kill

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change
Apr. Feb.
P
T

Nov.
P

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Mar.
T

July
P

Nov.
T

1-month spans - 4 1 3-month spans
'•

I Percent change at annual rate]
_

Jan. July
P T

910c. Composite irjd§x pf twelve l e a d i n g J s M v s

=

920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators

930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators

47c. index of industrial production

50c. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (1-Q span)

48c. Emgtoyee hours in nonagricultural establishments

51c. Personal income less transfer
payments in 1982 dollars

\

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.

BCII

JULY 1986



3
9

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income
Apr, Feb.

P

I

200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (unit rate, bit. dot)

223. Personal income in current dollars
(ann. rate, bit. dot.)

224. Disposable persona* income in current
doiars, Q (*m. rate, bl. doJ.)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann. f t W l d J )

213. Final sales in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bU. dol.)

225. Disposable personal income in 1982
qolars; Q (arm. rate, bl. dot.)

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(arm. rate, thous. dol.)

227. Per caprta disposable personal income in
~lwi dollars, U (ann. rate,
X

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.

40




JULY 1986

KCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Apr. Feb.

P

T

Annual rate, bUkm dollars (current)]

!| Personal consumption expenditures—

237. Services, Q - * 23$. Nondurable goods, Q

232. Durable goods, Q

[Annual rate, bifexi doflars (1982)[

. lj

- ^— «
239. Services, Q

238. Nondurable goods, Q

233. Dtirablejoods,J

1959
Current data for these series are shown on pages 8 0 and 8 1

BCII JULY 1986



41

A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Apr.

Fell.

Dee.

Nov.

P

T

P

[to.

Jan. My

"«% Kav.

T

1 Annual rate, b i o n doters (current) |<

Gross private domestic investment

245. Change in business inventories, Q

Annual rate, b i o n dolars (1982)|

243. Fixed investment, Q

30. Change in business inventories, Q

Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .

42




JULY 1986

KCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Apr.

fab.

P

T

Dae.
P

Nov.

Nov.

Mar.

T

P

T

Jan. July
P

T

July

Nov.

P

T

Annual rate, bilMjdritars (current)]
Government purchases of goods and services—

266. State and local
government, Q

I Annual rate, biHion dollars (1982)1

267. State and local government, Q

Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .

ItCII JULY 1986



43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURE!
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A5. Foreign Trade
Apr. Feb.

P

I

Annual rate, bfton dolars-

252. Exports of goods ami services, Q

253. Imports of goods and services, Q

250. Net exports of goods and services, Q

Annual rate, b i o n dollars (1982)

257. Imports of goods and services, Q

Exports of goods and services, Q

255. Net exports of goods and services, Q

1959 60

61

62 §3

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

44



JULY 1986

IICII

IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
Dec.
P

Wov.
T

Nov.
P

Jan. July
P T

Mar.
T

July
P

Nov.
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current) |

220. National income, Q

280. Compensation of employees, Q

286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory yabafinf and capital
consumption adjustments, Q

288. Net interest, Q
p '
income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments, Q

284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, Q

1959
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

BCII JULY 1986



45

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A7. Saving
Apr. Feb.
P
I

je.

MOT.

1

T

%m. Mar.
P
T

kn. kl\j

khf

Kluw.

[Anrtuai rate, bitoi doiars (current))

290. Gross saving,

298; Government surplus or deficit, Q

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.

46



JULY 1986

itcn

ECONOMD©
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
jr. Feb.

Dec.

Nov.

P

Nov.

fc.

T

Ji?iit%
P T

July
P

Mw
o.
I

[Percent of GNP |
70-

235. Personal consumption expenditures, Q

268. State and local government purchases
of goods and services, Q
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q
10 H

248. Presidential fixed investment, Q

249. Residential fixed investment. Q

^ 2 4 7 . Change in business inventories, Q

251. Net exports of goods and services, Q

[Percent of National Income|

64. Compensation of employees, Q

70-

287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q

15 s

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
289. Net interest, Q
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q

n

i% 73

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

B C D JULY 1986



47

B

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart B l . Price Movements

310c. Implicit price deflator for gross
national product (1-Q span)

1 Percent change at annual rate |

national product, Q

311c. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product
(1-Q span)
311. Fixed-weighted price indax
domestic husiitess product Q
Producer price indexes—

330c. Al commodities

Index: 1967 = 1001

335c. Industrial commodities

331c. Crude materials for
further processing
ndustrial commodities y ^ ^

331. Crude materialsjor
further-processing!
332c. Intermediate materiab,
supplies, and components

suodies. and comoonents
333c. Capital equipment

333. CapitaUouipmeat
334c. Finished consumer goods
334. Finished consumer goods

1986
Current data for those series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.

48




JULY 1986

ItCII

OTHER BBiro^T^WT EO@W©WSD(S i i i / ^
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P T

Dec.
P

Nov.
T

Jan. July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

320c. All urban consumers (6-month span)

322c. All urban consumers, food (6-month span)

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
] Index: 1977 ^ l

1 Wages 1
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1

340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory"
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (current dollars)1

346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q

345: Average hourfy compensation,
nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars)

1959 60 ©1

63

©4

§9

'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.

ItCII

JULY 1986



49

mmm mnmrnwr Emmwx m^mmm
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
Apr,

hJh.

P

I

t r

Wages—Con. I

,

A

•—f—-—'
.
.
Change in average hourly earnings of production or nonsupemsory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1—
,\

.

1 Percent change],

x

6-month spans (arm. rate)
jt
j!

340c. Current-dollar earnings

341c. Real earnings h
;

Change in average hourly compensation, aU employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—
345c. Current-dollar compensation

,

i

J

/M<

1-quarter spans (ann. rate)

346c. Real compensation

H

4-quarter spans *
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions—
348, Average first-year changes, Q (ann. rate)
349, Average changes over life of
contract, Q (ann. rate)

1 Index: 1977=1001

| Productivity I

358. Output per hour, al persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q

370. Output per hour, all persons,
business sector, Q
370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q

(Percent change |

1-quarter spans (arm. rate)

IE]
>y^r\
V
©3

V

^

J^-

03

W\>

v
@

Sit

©^

V
i (Mi
1l ;,,.

'Adjusted for overtime (In manufacturing only) and Interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable
with the annuallzed 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.

50




JULY 1986

KCI)

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
Feb.
T

Nov.
P

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Mar.
T

Jan. July July
F T P

Nov.
T

12®-

441. Civilian labor force (millions)

442. Civilian employment (millions)

Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)—
451. Males 20 years and over

453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age

452. Females 20 years and over
Number unemployed (millions)—

444. Males 20
and over
445Tfiffiales20 years
and over

446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age

447. Number unemployed, fuH-time
woriters (nitons)

Number of persons employed part time for
economic reasons (millions)

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

BCD

JULY 1986



51

D

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures
P

T

P

Jisn. Jw!y
P T

T

July
P

Annual rate, bion ctoiafs (current)|

502. federal Government expenditures, Q

501. Federal Government receipts, Q

500. FederaJ Government surplus or deficit, Q

511. State and local government receipts, Q

512. State and local government expenditures, Q

510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q

§1

B2

©3

84

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

52




JULY 1986

KCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I£) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Apr. Feb.
P

Dec.

T

Nov.

Mar.

T

T

P '

Jan. July
P

July

Nov.

T

P

T

80

SI

I Advance Measures of Defense Activity |

517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(bil. do!.; MOD moving avg.-6-temi)

525. Defense Department prime contract awards
(bil. driL; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil. dol.)

548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(bi. do!.; MCD moving aVg.-6-term)

i | | | m tin.*

1959 60

SI

62

63

64

63

86

67

68

69

70

i i sr

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

KCII

JULY 1986



53

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Apr. f-'fii).
P
T

Dec. Now.
P
T

kn.

P

I

P

JiaHy

July

(to,

T

¥

T

| Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity |
(index: 1977*100)

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value
(bil. do!.)

561. Manufacturers' unfitted orders, defense products (bl. dol.)

580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military
assistance (bit. dol.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(bil. dol.)

Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .

5
4




JULY 1986

ttCII

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Apr.

Feb.

P

T

Dec. WOT.
P
T

Nov.
P

Mar.
T

Ian. July
P

T

Jyly

Nov.

P

T

| Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Con. [
570. Employment, defense products industries (millions)

Defense Department personnel (millwns)—

577. Military personnel on active duty

3,5*

3.0 «
2.5-

2.0-

578. Civilian personnel, direct hire employment

1.0

J

2SQ220-

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol)
p
100 «

565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent)

Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .

JULY 1986




5
5

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart E l . Merchandise Trade
Apr. Pel).

Dee,

Nov.

Nov.
P

Jan. July
P T

Mir.

T

T

P

July MOT.
P
T

602, Exports, excluding military aid shipments
(bil. dot.)

3-

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
(bil. doJ.)

3430-

14*
ID-

9.08.07.0-

612. General imports (bil. doJ.)

6.08.04.0-

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
(bLdoL)

1.0-

616. Imports of automobiles and parts (bl. doJ.)

fl.8-

0.6-

0.4-

1©B0 6©

SI

62

©3

§4

8S

7% 76

77

78

79

Current data for these series are shown on page 92.

56




JULY 1986

KCII

E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
Jan. July
P

July

Nov.

P

T

T

| Annual rate, billion dollars

Excess of payments

Goods and services—
667. Balance on goods and services, Q

Merchandise, adjusted-

Balance on merchandise trade, Q

\
620. Imports, Q

Income on investment—

651. U.S. investment abroad, Q

652. Foreign investment in the United States, Q

1959 SO
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

ItCII JULY 1986



5
7

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart F l . Industrial Production
Apr.

Fell.

P

T

Dec. New.
P
T

?

T

1

P

T

Ihdw: 1977=1001

Industrial production—
170-

100-

723. Canada

11

1%

Ti>

7^

JB

70)

77

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.

58



JULY 1986

KCII

muimi
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F3. Stock Prices

Chart F2. Consumer Prices
Jan. July
F

T

July
P

I Percent change at annual rate]

Nov.
T

Jan. July
F

T

July
P

Nov.
T

16-month spans ]

Consumer prices—

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

B C D JULY 1986



59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Q
910. Index of
twelve leading
indicators (series
1,5,8,12,19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
99, 106, 111)

Year
and
month

(1967-100)

920. I d x o
ne f
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51,57)

(1967-100)

930. I d x of
ne
six lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)

(1967 = 100)

COMPOSITE INDEXES

940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging index

Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)

915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)

(1967=100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)

917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104,106,
HI)

(1967=100)

(1967-100)

1984
January
February
March . . .

164.5
166.5
167.2

149.5
150.6
151.1

109.8
111.3
112.8

E>136.2
135.3
134.0

110.3
0)111.5
110.8

106.1
106.8
107.5

109.2
108.4
109.3

133.4
134.8
136.3

168.1
168.2
166 7

152.6
153.9
155 4

114.6
116.4
117 5

133.2
132.2

110.7
110.7
111 1

E>107.9
107.7

inc n

110.1
110.8
iin R

136.6
138.1

July . . .
August
September

163.9
164.4
165.7

155.7
156.0
156.5

118.8
119.8
121.0

131.1
130.2
129.3

109.6
110.3
110.4

104.6
103.6
103.8

110.3
111.7
112.2

137.3
136.9
137.3

October
November
December

164.2
165.1
164.1

156.5
157.7
158.8

122.0
121.7
121.9

128.3
129.6
130.3

109.3
109.8
109.3

103.8
103.4
102.3

112.4
112.8
112.5

135.S
136.0
136.3

January
February
March

166.3
167.1
167.4

158.4
159.0
159.3

123.7
124.3
125.4

128.1
127.9
127.0

109.2
111.0
110.8

102.6
102.5
102.0

113.1
114.1
114.2

139.0
138.6
138.9

April
May !
June

166.7
167.1
167.7

160.5
160.2
159.5

125.1
126.7
126 5

128.3
126.4
126 1

110.0
109.7
110 1

101.8
101.6
101 5

114.5
115.0
115 8

137.1
135.9
11^ 6

July
August
September

169.2
rl69.8
rl7O.7

159.7
161.0
rl60.9

rl26.9
rl26.9
rl28.4

rl25.8
rl26.9
rl25.3

rllO.5
rll0.7
rill.2

rlO1.5
rlO1.5
101.6

rll6.7
rll6.9
rll5.6

rl37.7
rl4o!l

October
November
December

rl71.7
rl71.6
r!73.7

rl60.8
rl61.5
rl63.0

129.7
rl29.9
130.2

rl24.0
rl24.3
rl25.2

rll0.4
rlO9.6
rllO.6

r102.1
rlO2.3
rlO2.7

rll4.8
rll4.9
r!16.7

rHl.l
140.6
rHl.B

rl73.6
rl75.0
rl76.0

rl62,8
rl63.2
rl62.8

rl31.9
rl32.3
[H>rl33.2

123.4
rl23.4
rl22.2

109.1
rll0.9
rll0.7

rlO3.3
rlO3.4
rlO3.2

rll7.7
rll9.6
121.2

rl42.1
rl40.6
rl39.7

rl78.3
178.1
[H)1178.6

H>rl65.3
163.8
2
162.6

rl31.4
132.4
3
131.5

rl25.8
rl23.7
P123.7

rill.3
109.9
pllO.2

rlO3.6
rlO3.2
P103.3

121.9
0>pl22.1
(NA)

rl40.1
fH>rl42.5
P141.8

April
May . . .
June

. .

1 ^A ft

1985

1986
January
February
March
April
My
a
June
July
August . . .
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§>, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series.relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pates 10 and 11.
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
^Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
9
lixeludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

60



JULY 1986

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Timing Class

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

L, L,L

L.C.L

L, C, L

L, Lg, U

(Hours)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing

5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs1

(Hours)

1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

(Thous.)

60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed

(Ratio)

u,c,c

L, Lg, U

46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers

(1967=100)

48. Employee hours in
nonagncultural establishments

(Ann. rate,
bit. hours)

1984
January
February
March

0.407
0.434
0.420

123
129
124

173.95
175.61
174.92

360
348
350

0.421
0.435
0.484

124
125
134

176.54
176.34
177.29

3.4
3.3
3.3

365
358
368

0.486
0.448
0.458

138
128
129

177.68
178.12
178.93

40.5
40.5
40.5

3.4
3.4
3.3

405
397
386

0.483
0.497
0.523

136
137
145

178.73
179.90
180.16

January
February
March

40.5
40.1
40.5

3.3
3.3
3.3

378
402
389

0.493
0.500
0.500

140
141
141

180.23
180.17
181.38

April
May
June

40.3
40.4
40.5

3.3
3.2
3.2

387
383
392

0.468
0.467
0.498

132
132
141

181.05
181.65
181.88

July
August
September . . ,

40.4
40.6
40.7

3.2
3.3
3.3

381
375
381

0.499
0.490
0.489

141
134
136

181.80
182.58
183.11

October
November . . .
December . . .

40.
40.
40.9

3.4
3.4

B>3.6

367
371
391

0.502
0.525
0.538

140
144

184.42
184.58
184.81

40.8
40.
40

3.5
3.4
3.4

375
384
393

B>0.543
0.495
0.488

143
142
138

185.63
185.29
185.41

3.4
3.4
P3.3

374
378
378

0.471
0.445

132
128
pl41

H>rl85.82
rl85.75
P185.56

40. 7
41, 1
40. 7

3.5
3.5
3.5

B>41. 1
40. 7
40.6

3.6
3.4
3.4

July
August
September . , ,

40.6
40.5
40.6

October
November , . .
December . . .

April
May
June

364

D345
348

1985

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June

40
r40.
p40.6

pO.497

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
*Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

JULY 1986




61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment—Continued

Timing Class

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT - Continued

U,C,C

42. Number
of persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities

(Thous.)

C,C,C

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls

(Thous.)

L.CU

40. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
goodsproducing
industries
(Thous.)

U, Lg, U

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age

(Percent)

L, Lg, U

37. Number of
persons unemployed

(Thous.)

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

43. Unemployment rate

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs'

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

(Weeks)

Lg, Lg, Lg

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Percent)

1984
January
February
March

99,918
100,491
100,689

92,568
93,076
93,369

24,213
24,427
24,494

58.07
58.38
58.39

8,982
8,837
8,775

8.0
7.8
7.8

3.0
2.9
2.9

20.5
19.1
18.9

2.7
2.6

April
May
June

100,992
101,826
102,206

93,743
94,041
94,408

24,605
24,681
24,784

58.54
58.98
59.15

8,765
8,547
8,238

7.8
7.5
7.2

2.8
2.7
2.8

18.6
IB.6
13.1

2.5
2.5
2.3

July
August
September . . .

102,134
101,952
102,059

94,707
94,956
95,269

24,882
24,911
24,881

59.03
58.84
58.89

8,456
8,496
8,380

7.4
7.5
7.4

2.7
2.7
2.7

18.0
17.5
17.2

2.3
2.3
2.3

October
November . . .
December . . .

102,464
102,576
102,861

95,607
95,966
96,147

24,913
24,927
24,988

58.97
59.09
59.18

8,379
8,194
8,256

7.3
7.2
7.2

2.7
2.8
2.8

16.8
17.1
17.1

2.2
2.1
2.1

January
February
March

102,996
103,262
103,637

96,366
96,507
96,870

25,008
24,931
24,971

59.20
59.30
59.45

8,439
8,395
8,384

7.4
7.3
7.3

2.9
2.9
2.9

15.9
16.0
15.9

2.0
2.1
2.1

April
May
June

103,519
103,655
103,461

97,104
97,338
97,442

24,996
24,949
24,897

59.37
59,35
59.12

8,384
8,400
8,423

7.3
7.3
7.3

2.8
2.8
2.8

16.1
15.0
15.5

2.1
2.0
2.0

July
August
September . , .

103,751
104,115
104,502

97,672
97,890
98,128

24,875
24,880
24,843

59.21
59.34
59.46

8,401
8,133
8,271

7.3
7.1
7.1

2.8
2,8
2.8

15.5
1S.S
15.6

2.0
2.0
2.0

October
November , . .
December . . .

104,755
104,899
105,055

98,428
98,666
98,910

24,903
24,931
24,977

59.56
59.59
59.67

8,301
8,161
8,023

7.1
7.0
6.9

2.7
j>2.7
2.8

15.4
15.7
15.4

2.0
1.9
1.9

105,655
105,465
105,503

99,296
99,429
99,484

0)25,101
25,038
24,945

59.90
59.63
59,70

E>7,831
8,527
8,419

)6.7
7.3
7.2

2.8
2.8
2.8

14.9
15.3
14.4

1.8
2.0
1.9

105,670
105,950
(H>106,508

r99,783
H)r99,908
p99,819

25,038
r24,964
p24,859

59.70
59.77
|H>60.02

8,342
8,554
8,443

7.1
7.3
7.1

2.8
2.8
2.8

14.3
14.4
15.2

2.0

1985

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .

October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.

*Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

62



JULY 1986

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ 9

Minor Economic
Process

Industrial Production

Comprehensive Output and Income

Timing Class

Year
and
month

PRODUCTION AND INCOME

ccc

CCC

50. Gross national product
in 1982 dollars

52. Constant
(1982) dollars

51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1982
dollars

Personal income
223. Current
dollars

CCC

ccc
53. Wages and
salaries in 1982
dollars, mining,
mfg., and construction

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.).

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised1

1984

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised1

Revised1

Revised1

ccc
47. Index of
industrial
production

ccc
73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

C.L.L

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

Revised1

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

ccc
49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised1

January
February
March

3,444.7

3,003.3
3,036.9
3,062.4

2,820.0
2,843.5
2,859.4

2,397.7
2,422.3
2,437.3

519.7
524.5
524.8

118.4
119.3
120.1

119.6
121.0
122.2

119.5
121.0
121.6

1,486.3

April
May
June

3,487.1

3,066.7
3,071.8
3,093.8

2,855.4
2,857.5
2,869.9

2,432.1
2,434.6
2,448.2

526.1
526.8
528.7

120,
121,
122.3

123.3
123.8
124.7

121.9
122.3
123.2

1,506.1

July
August
September . . ,

3,507.4

120.9
135.9
162.3

2,887.0
2,887.6
2,903.9

2,466.2
2,466.7
2,484.0

530.4
531.6
532.6

123.2
123.5
123.3

126.4
127.7
127.2

123.9
123.2
123.1

1,510.3

October
November . . .
December . . .

3,520.4

165,
186.
3,217.0

2,898.5
2,910.0
2,932.5

2,475.8
2,486.4
2,515.6

532.5
535.1
537.4

122.7
123.4
123.3

127.0
127.5
127.4

123.3
123.8
123.4

1,509.5

January
February
March

3,547.0

3,227.3
3,258.3
3,273.8

2,933.9
2,951.4
2,952.0

2,500.3
2,516.8
2,517.9

538.2
537.3
539.2

123.6
123.7
124.0

127.8
127.2
128.0

123.2
123.8
123.9

1,521.1

April
May
June

3,567.6

3,302
3,288,

2,537.6
2,514.8
2,525.1

537.1
537.7
537.1

124.1
124.1
124.3

128.2
127.9
127.6

124.3
124.7
125.5

1,526.0

3,304.9

2,972.7
2,949.3
2,958.7

July
August
September . . .

3,603.8

3,315.4
3,320.5
3,333.9

2,962.8
2,962
2,963,

2,522.2
2,525.9
2,526.8

535.7
537.8
537.0

124.
125.
125.1

127.9
129.4
128.3

125.6
126.6
126.9

1,544.2

October
November . . .
December . . .

3,622.3

3,358.3
3,372.3
3,418.0

2,971.9
2,971.2
3,003.5

2,535.9
2,536.4
2,569.0

538.7
538.3
541.5

124.4
125.4
126.4

127.7
129.2
129.9

126.4
127.3
128.0

1,541.7

3,417.4
3,435.4
3,445 1

2,992.5
3,021.4
3,040.7

2,551.7
2,577.9
2,593.6

541.1
541.0
542.0

|H>126.7
125.6
124.4

(H>130.4

3,655.9

129.0
rl27.7

129.1
128.5
rl28.3

1,563.6

B>3,485, 1
3,475. 7

E>3,078.7
3,065.0

[H>2,630.0

E>p3,665.7

p3,051.9

rl25.2
rl24.7
P124.1

rl28.5
rl27.8
P126.7

rl29.3
[H)rl29.7
P129.6

[H>pl,565.7

p3,479.2

E> 544.0
542.8
P538.2

1985

1986
January . ,
February ,
March . .
April . . . .
May . . . .
June . . . .

2,615.0
p2,603.7

July . . . .
August . .
September
October . .
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
^ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page iii.

JULY 1986



63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

• •
WiiM

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process

j Q

Capacity Utilization

Timing Class

Year
and
month

PRODUCTION AND
INCOME-Continued

L, C, U

82. Capacity
utilization rate,
manufacturing

Orders and Deliveries

L, C, U

84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materials

L, L, L

(Percent)

L,L,L

Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars

(Percent)

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

(Bil. dol.)

7. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

8. Manufacturers' new
orders in 1982
dollars, consumer goods
and materials
(Bil. dol.)

L.L.L

25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

(Bil. dol.)

L.L.L

L, Lg, U

96, Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries @
(Percent
reporting)

(Bil. do!.)

1984
January
February
March

79.2
80.0
80.4

81.6
82.1
82.5

99.55
101.79
104.45

95.72
97.60
99.76

84.27
84.37
81.78

4.38
5.44
E>8.14

324.50
329.94
338.09

63
68

April
May
June

80.7
80.7
81.1

82.6
82.6
82.8

97.31
100.95
98.34

92.67
96.24
93.57

81.84
82.11
80.41

,85
.06
0.61

339.93
343.99
344.60

71
70
66

July
August
September , . ,

81.7
©81.8
81.3

83.0
1
82,7

101.98
101,86
98.21

97.03
96.64
93.18

82.58
82.52
79.75

0.00

348.73
350.34
350.34

60
54
58

October
November . . .
December . . .

81.1
81.2
80.9

81,
81.
81.3

96.51
104.43
101.31

91.56
98.90
95.84

81.84
83.35
82.57

-2.63

346.04
348.08
345.44

52
50
45

January
February
March . . . . . .

80.7
80.4
80.5

81,
81,
81,

105.45
102.47
99.54

99.67
96.76
93.91

86.65
83.67
81.88

3.48
0.75
-2.58

348.92
349.67
347.10

47
48
46

April
May
June

80.5
80.3
80.1

80,
80.
80.1

99.84
102.97
106.78

94.10
96.69
100.17

83.31
84.09
83.17

-2.22
0.25
4.12

344.87
345.13
349.25

44
44
44

July
August
September . . .

80.1
80.7
80.1

79.5
79.9
79.5

104.37
107.66
106.64

97.72
100.81
100.23

83.51
84.78
85.29

1.89

351.14
353.49
356.48

44
42
42

October
November . . .
December . , .

79.6
80.2
80.4

79.3
79.2
80,1

104.50
103.80
107.53

97.66
97.01
100.40

86.25
86.90
85.70

-1.98
-3.21
1.75

354.49
351.28
353.04

46
42
46

January
February . . . .
March

80.7
79.8
r79.1

80.2
79.6
r78.5

E>108.19
107.54
104.68

E>89.40
r87.70
83.92

2.56
2.00
1.99

355.60
357.60
@>359.59

46
48
50

April
May
June

r79.5
r79.2
P78.6

r78.7
78.3
P77.9

103.75
rlO2.62
P104.77

B>101.31
rl00.70
97.93
96.87
r95.64
P97.64

87.03
r83.67
P84.35

-2.84
r-1,05
pi. 00

356.74
r355,7O
P356.69

50
55
50

1985

1986

July
August
September . , ,
October
November . . .
December . . ,
See note on page 60.

Graphs of these series are shown on paces 12, 20, and 21.

64




JULY 1 9 8 6

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

E 9

Minor Economic
Process

c,c,c

C,C,C

Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Constant
(1982) dollars

56. Current
dollars

(Mil. dot.)

(Mil. dol.)

C,L,C

75. Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods

C, L, U-

U, L, U

UCC

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars

(1977=100)

(Mil. dol.)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Timing Class

Year
and
month

• 1
fell

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued

59. Constant
(1982) dollars

L,L,L

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

58. Index of
consumer
sentiment ®

1

Revised

12. Index of
net business
formation

(1st Q
1966-100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

UL.L

(1967=100)

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

1

Revised

1984
January
February
March

402,489
402,395
404,612

387,713
387,590
388,114

116.2
116.9
117.3

105,669
105,850
104,322

101,507
101,583
100,021

102.8

100.1
97.4
.0

E) 123.2
122.6
121.6

52,674
53,535
53,075

April
May
June

408,342
412,524
413,976

392,029
395,483
398,311

118.3
117.7
118.5

106,794
107,354
108,911

102,195
102,731
104,121

106.7

96.1
98.1
95.5

121.4
120.
120,

53,298
50,736
53,884

July
August
September . . .

412,233
413,300
412,276

397,143
398,008
396,816

119.1
118.4
118.3

107,333
106,818
108,143

102,613
101,731
102,798

105.0

96.6
99.1
100.9

120,
121.
122.5

53,211
52,025
52,646

October
November . . .
December . . .

414,243
417,635
421,613

399,255
402,004
405,167

118.5
119.6
119.7

108,816
109,899
110,078

103,143
103,973
104,043

108.4

96.3
95.7
92.9

121.4
120.0
119.5

52,587
53,838
53,558

417,350
418,218
420,346

401,294
402,557
404,006

118.8
119.1
119.8

110,511
111,935
111,999

104,256
105,301
104,966

110.2

96.0
93.7
93.7

121.4
122.7
122.0

52,768
54,765
55,785

423,215
V424.379
r418,416

408,157
r410,742
r402,237

119.5
120.0
120.4

114,256
rll3,992
rl!3,472

106,881
106,734
106,247

112.8

94.6
91.8
96.5

121.6
119.6
120.2

r55,659
55,392
55,006

July
August
September . . .

422,483
430,417
428,998

406,135
414,183
413,305

120.1
121.5
121.8

114,430
116,276
0)119,118

107,144
108,669
111,221

(H) 126.4

94.
92.
92,

122.
121,
121.3

54,560
55,644
56,419

October
November . . .
December . . .

426,033
431,965
(H>432,797

409,867
413,148
413,500

120.8
122.7
124.2

114,785
115,433
116,861

106,976
107,081
108,005

111.6

90
93.9

121.5
120.5
119.5

58,251
57,320
57,785

431,957
426,854
420,230

413,892
414,355
412,062

123.9
123.2
rl22.5

117,349
117,200
116,684

108,056
109,023
109,665

111.1

95.6
95.9
95.1

118.4
121.2
r!21.8

57,452
E)61,062
r58,981

r428,455
p420,736

[H>r422,645
p414,544
(NA)

E>rl24.4
rl23.9
P123.7

rll7,715
rll8,515
pll8,700

111,157
Dill,596
pill,560

P117.8

96.2
94.8
99.3

rl23.1
rll9.9
P119.9

59,880
(NA)

1985
January
February
March
April
May
June

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

July
August
September . . .
October , .
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
*See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

KCII JULY 1986




65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q j

Minor Economic
Process

Business Investment Commitments

Timing Class

U,L

U,L

L.L.L

10. Current
dollars
(Bil. dot.)

(Bil. dol.)

HI. dot.)
Revised

1984

24. Current
dollars

20. Constant
(1982) dollars

L.C.U

L.L.L

Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries

Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings1

27. Constant
(1982) dollars

Square feet of
floor space

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

C, Lg, Lg

U, Lg, U

Square meters of
floor space'

(Millions)

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations

(Bil. dol.)

(Bit. dol.)

9

January
February
March

29.47
30.99
30.93

30.02
31.51
31.46

25.72
27.02
26.76

26.40
27.69
27.48

72.72
64.41
74.95

,76
,98
96

26.92

April
May
June

30.27
33.53
32.06

30.67
33.97
32.64

26.33
28.56
27.72

26.94
29.29
28.57

79.78
82.49
74.90

41
.66
96

.12

July
August
September . , .

32.94
31.11
31.66

33.27
31.70
32.25

28.14
26.74
27.39

28.78
27.61
28.24

79.55
82.65
75.84

.39
68
7.05

27.31

October
November , . .
December . . .

29.97
31.43
31.49

30.35
32.07
31.47

25.26
26.84
26.89

25.97
27.79
27.21

79.04
83.75
86.73

7.34
7.78
8.06

29.10

27.81
33.80
32.09

27.74
D35.81
32.91

23.63
29.49
27.21

23.90
1)31.86
28.43

81.14
82.48
87.41

7.54
7.66
8.12

29.94

30.32
30.66
r32.63

30.49
31.33
33.34

25.46
25.59
27.98

26.04
26.72
29.14

91.95
83.99
69.68

8.54
7.80
6.47

27.56

31.83
32.02
34.30

32.40
32.93
35.00

26.68
27.55
29.24

27.74
28.89
30.43

91.89
91.41
[H>93.19

8.54
8.49
E>8.66

24.17

27.19

78.46

89. is
92! 06

94^37

1985
January
February
March
April
May
)une
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .

32.63
30.59
ED35.04

33.32
31.34
34.61

27.09
25.79
H>30.57

28.32
27.02
30.58

92.00
92.61
79.23

8.55
8.60
7.36

27.63
32.69
30.18

27.41
34.28
31.04

24.29
28,64
26.54

24.41
30.64
27.78

70.66
78.41
69.96

31.07
31.05
p32.77

26.18
r26.14
P26.74

27.18
r27.73
P29.06

84.26
76.71
75.88

97! is

6.56

30.57
r29,92
P30.95

99 .35

94.'58

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June

P24.50
p92.*63

(NA)
7.05

(NA)

July
August
September . , ,
October
November . . ,
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Sec "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

66



JULY 1986

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

| J |

Minor Economic
Process

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

Timing Class

C t Lg,Lg

C Lg, Lg

Expenditures for new plant
quipment
Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

61. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

100. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C Lg, Lg

C Lg, U

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and
business
construction
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

76. Index of
industrial production, business equipment

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, C

Gross private nonresidential
fixed investment in 1982 dollars

86. Total

87. Structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised1

(1977 = 100)

Revised1

1984

C Lg, C

Revised1

L,L,L

28. New private housing
units started

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

L,L,L

L.L.L

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits

89. Gross private residential
fixed investment
in 1982 dollars

(1967-100)

Revised1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1

January
February
March

337.95

338.76

343.88
348.14
360.50

127.1
128.5
130.4

394.4

133.5

260.9

1,892
>2,213
1,671

144.8
[H>158.5
137.6

169.7

April .
May .
June .

349.97

348.97

360.22
371.74
380.48

131.2
133.3
135.5

419.5

141.3

278.2

,880
,786
,853

141.6
138.8
144.7

173.2

July
August . .
September

361.43

359.05

372.60
380.07
393.49

137.0
139.1
139.2

427.1

142.9

284.2

,733
,589
1,702

128.0
122.0
121.5

171.2

October . .
November
December

368.29

364.67

387.96
392.68
408.43

139.1
139.8
138.4

447.6

147.5

300.1

1,532
1,649
1,607

118.8
131.0
129.7

168.3

January . .
February .
March . . .

371.16

365.27

374.91
389.27
407.68

140.4
140.0
140.2

442.7

149.9

292.8

1,804
1,632
1,849

130.8
135.2
139.9

172.4

April . . .
May
June , ..

387.83

381.52

400.96
397.75
403.49

142.0
141.9
140.7

463.0

H>154.1

308.9

1,851
1,684
1,693

135.1
137.7
136.9

175.1

July
August
September

388.90

381.78

397.96
408.25
397.48

141.3
D143. 0
142. 2

463.1

152.3

310.9

1,673
1,737
1,653

136.3
142.1
147.2

180.0

October . .
November
December

H) 397.74

390.39

409.30
410.53

0>476.9

152.4

0)324.5

H>423.97

139.6
141.7
141.4

1,784
1,654
1,882

135.8
133.0
146.7

181.5

1985

1986
376.08

365.87

385.23
398.64
401.72

142.9
141.1
139.1

457.8

148.1

309.7

2,034
2,001
1,960

148.4
144.2
146.3

186.3

April
May
June

a387.42

a375.00

402.84
P390.84

140.3
rl39.6
P138.0

P454.8

P132.6

P322.2

r2,019
rl,860
pi,845

150.3
142.6
142.9

E>P193.1

July
August . .
September

a388.87

a375.64

October . .
November
December

a396.61

a382.56

January . . .
February . .
March

CNA)

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
'See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.

ItO

JULY 1986




67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS , . .

NVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

L, L,L

L,L,L

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars

Revised

January
February
March

36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars

3

31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories, book
value

Smoothed1

Actual

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
1984

Inventories on Hand and on Order

Inventory Investment

Revised

3

-10.67

Revised

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

U,L

38. Change in
mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order2
(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Book
value
(Bil. dol.)

3

70. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
Revised

Lg, Lg, Lg

65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods, book
value
(Bil. dol.)

I Lg, l g

Lg, Lg, Lg

77. Ratio,
mfg. and
trade inventories to
sales in
1982 dollars

78. Mfrs.'
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order
(Bil dol.)

(Ratio)

3

April
May
June

©162.94
66.35

37.59
46.56
68.10

©88.9
80.1

2.81
2.82
2.35

524.73
532.14
538.82

581.36
593.08
598.50

81.16
81.90
83.14

1.51
1.53
1.54

211.54
214.36
216.71

84.44
63.10
-4.13

H>85ii

©88.73
87.94
59.55

85.3
54.9
23.0

1.81
1.66
-0.22

545.93
550.50
552.42

604.62
609.46
610.60

84.14
85.11
86.38

1.54
1.54
1.53

218.52
220.18
219.97

53.4

July
August
September

6CL6

63.48
49.10
27.62

44.31
38.48
41.44

57.0
54.6
45.1

2.61
-0.18
-0.05

557.17
561.72
565.48

615.49
620.82
623.89

86.95
87.80
88.55

1.55
1.56
1.57

©222.58
222.40
222.35

October
November
December

33^9

11.41
22.08
-5.39

38.05
24.87
14.87

39.3
29.9
26.3

-2.43
-1.56
-1.06

568.75
571.24
573.43

626.53
629.46
630.89

88.89
89.27
89.69

1.57
1.56
1.56

219.92
218.36
217.30

January
February
March

23^2

29.90
14.93
-19.46

12.45
14.34
10.80

28.4
32.9
-2.1

0.65
-0.48
-3.07

575.80
578.54
578.37

632.39
634.14
634.21

89.69
89.86
90.12

1.57
1.58
1.57

217.95
217.47
214.40

April
May
June

v'.k

7.42
-25.43
7.82

4.71
-5.76
-7.94

2.0
r-8.6
r27.9

-0.94
-1.54
1.68

578.53
r577.81
r580.14

635.58
634.35
635.39

90.12
©90.13
89.87

1.56

rl.54
©1.58

213.46
211.93
213.61

July
August
September

CL7

7.88
-17.23
-5.38

-3.32
-1.88
-2.71

r-0.3
-23.2
8.8

-0.46
0.31
-0.11

580.12
578.18
578.92

636.56
635.86
635.69

89.26
88.86
88.26

1.57
1.53
1.54

213.15
213.46
213.35

October
November
December

-h'.z

23.60
12.84
5.47

-2.29
5.34
12.16

39.1
7.1
4.6

-0.34
-1.28
1.83

582.17
582.76
583.15

637.74
638.64
638.43

87.58
88.24
88.37

1.56
1.55
1.55

213.69
212.41
214.24

33.83
18.79
44.87

15.68
18.37
25.93

21.8
2.5
36.0

-0.26
1.43
-1.10

584.97
585.18
588.18

640.58
641.50
645.87

87.92
87.53
87.62

1.55
1.56
1.57

213.99
215.41
214.31

16.85
p-64.52
(NA)

29.67
P12.95
<NA)

r5.1
p-23.8
(NA)

-1.76
p-1.39
(NA)

©r588.60
P586.61
(NA)

©648.02
P644.47
(NA)

87.80
P87.66
(NA)

rl.53
p i . 55
(NA)

212.56
P211.17
(NA)

1985

1986
January
February
March
April .
May
June

9\9.6

July . .
August
September
October, . ,
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pates 13, 15, 26, and 27.
1(
rhis series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
a
Series 38 reached its high value (3.02) in October 1983.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

68



JULY 1986

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q J

Minor Economic
Process

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

Timing Class

L.L.L

U.L.L

U,L

98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials 1

Year
and
month

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials20

99. Change in sensitive materials
pricesx

(Percent)

(1967-100)

L,L,L

Smoothed3

Actual

(Percent)

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

(Percent)

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ©

(194143 = 10)

Profits and Profit Margins
L,C,L

16. Current
dollars

18. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate,
oil. dol.)
5

(Ann. rate,
toll, dol.)
Revised

Lt L, L

L.CL

Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdj*

Corporate profits after tax

Revised

1984

U,L

L.L.L

3

79. Current
dollars

80. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
Revised

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
3

Revised

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
income1
(Percent)

5

Revised3

January
February
March

-0.84
1.27
0.19

283.6
283.6
289.2

-0.33
0.69
0.65

0.77
0.45
0.35

166.39
157.25
157.44

0)146.4

E>142.7

159.6

156.1

6.6

April
May
June

-0.26
-0.84
-0.78

288.6
0)289.5
286.2

-0.16
-0.36
-0.73

0.36
0.22
-0.19

157.60
156.55
153 12

144.*8

140 .'3

17O.'i

166,6

6.*4

July
August
September

-1.76
-1.10
0.71

280.1
275.6
274.0

-1.55
-1.08
0.21

-0.65
-1.00
-0.96

151.08
164.42
166.11

135,*8

13O.*3

17O.*5

165.*4

5.7

-0.73
0.10
-0.37

266.4
268.3
261.9

-1.21
0.25
-0.89

-0.75
-0.47
-0.43

164.82
166.27
164.48

134 .'i

127*7

177*1

ni'.i

5.*6

January
February
March

-0.37
-1.59
-0.72

255.8
253.1
252.4

-0.85
-1.16
-0.48

-0.56
-0.73
-0.90

171.61
180.88
179.42

126*.6

118-7

178^7

17U7

5*1

April
May
June

-0.03
0.66
0.14

257.1
252.0
242.9

0.52
-0.22
-1.00

-0.60
-0.22
-0.15

180.62
184.90
188.89

126.7

118.8

187.2

179.8

5.0

July
August
September

-0.03
-0.34
-0.34

240.7
239.8
238.0

-0.31
-0.26
-0.40

-0.37
-0.52
-0.42

192.54
188.31
184.06

133*4

124*9

200.* 5

192*3

5.3

October
November
December . ;

0.59
-0.31
-0.31

236.9
234.5
235.0

0.18
-0.49
-0.09

-0.24
-0.20
-0.18

186.18
197.45
207.26

139.4

130*1

189*2

180! 2

5.3

0.10
r-1.14
r0.17

236.9
233.3
223.1

0.27
r-1.02
r-1.21

-0.12

r-0.19
r-0.47

208.19
219.37
232.33

135*2

124.8

0)207.3

©196.6

4*9

1.99
0.79
-0.41

219.9
221.3
225.0

r-0.59
-0.26
0.25

237.98
238.46
(H>245.30

(NA)

(NA)

October
November
December

.,.

1985

1986
January
February
March

. ...

April
May . ,
June

6

July
August
September

227.5

0.64
0.59
0.27

7

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

242.30

October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1984: series 98 (2.83) in Feb. 1983, series 99 actual (2.63) in Feb. 1983, series
99 smoothed (1.81) in Apr. 1983, and series 22 (6.7) in 3d Q 1983. 2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3See footnote 1 on page 68.
**IVA, inventory valuation adjustment;
s
6
7
CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
See footnote 3 on page 68.
Average for July 1-25.
Average for July 2, 9, 16, and 23.

JULY 1986



69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q H

Minor Economic
Process

U.L.L

L,L,L

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income 1

15. Profits after
taxes per dollar
of sales, manufacturing corporations

(Percent)

Year
and
month

Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins—Continued

Timing Class

(Cents)
2

L.L.L

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit
labor cost,
nonfarm business sector
(1977 = 100)
Revised

1984
January
February . . .
March

7.3

April ,
May ,
June .

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

U,L

L.L.L

2

Revised

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. 'idex of
u labor cost,
Ir'«-hess sector

Corporate net cash flow
34. Current
dollars

68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial corporations

35. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
2

Revised

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
2

Revised

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, U. Lg

(1977=100)
2

Revised

(Dollars)
Revised

64. Compensation of employees as a
percent of national income

62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing
Actual data

Actual data
as a percent
of trend

(1977-100)
2

Lg, Lg, Lg

Revised

Revised

(Percent)

(Percent)

2

2

Revised-1

8.6

345.8

320.5

158.2

0.683

134,8
134.9
134.3

90.6
90.2
89.4

72.7

7.8

99.3

349.3

319.5

158.3

0.684

134.5
134.3
134.1

89.1
88.6
88.0

72^9

July
August
September . .

7.6

99.1

348.9

312.4

160.2

0.694

133.6
133.8
134.6

87.3
87.0
87.1

73.2

October
November . . ,
December . . .

7.9

98.8

357.8

312.6

161.7

0.699

135.4
135.6
136.6

87.2
87.0
87.2

73^3

98.7

361.0

307.1

163.1

0.704

137.1
136.9
137.0

87.1
86.6
86.2

73^4

4.9

1985
January .
February
March . .

7.9

April . .
May . .
June . .

8.2

98.9

370.8

310.7

164.0

0.708

136.3
136.6
137.0

85.4
85.2
85.0

73*.5

July
August
September . , .

3.8

.3

382.8

320.9

164.4

0.705

137.2
136.
137.

84.7
84.0
84.0

73^4

October
November . . .
December . . .

7.9

98.2

.4

E>329.4

167.3

0.716

138.7
137.9
138.4

84
83,

4.2

73^7

83.5

1986
January , .
February .
March . . .
April .
May ,
June ,

8.5

p3.6

99.0

380.9

325.2

167.0

0)0.721

(NA)

(NA)

P99.1

(NA)

(NA)

@>pl67.4

(NA)

137.
138.
E>139.
138.0
138.4
P138.7

82.7
82.8
83.0

[H>73.'7

81.7

81.6
P81.4

July . . . .
August . .
September
October . .
November
December
See note on page 60.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
1
IVA> inventory valuation adjustment? CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment,
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

70



JULY 1986

(NA)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

MONEY AND CREDIT

Money

L,L,L

L, C, U

85. Change
in money
supply M l

102. Change
in money
supply M2 *

(Percent)

U,L

104. Change
in total liquid
assets l

Velocity of Money

L.L.L

105. Money
supply M l in
1982 dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L.L.L

106. Money
supply M2 in
1982 dollars

C.C.C

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml

Credit Flows

C Lg, C

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M2

(Percent)

(Bil. dol.)

1984

(Ratio)

(Ratio)

Revised2

(Percent)

Revised2

L.L.L

L.L.L

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

112. Net change
in business loans

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised2

January
February
March

0.68
0.49
0.60

0.62
0.74
0.52

0.81
0.85
1.16

501.7
502.2
503.9

2,079.3
2,086,6
2,092.0

6.881

1.365
1.371
Dl.375

71,74
100.58
104.24

8.62
59.39
0)108.61

April
May
June

0.47
0.58
0.74

0.68
0.62
0.53

1.04
1.04
1.04

504.3
506.4
508.8

2,098.2
2,107.7
2,113.6

6.902

1.367
1.361
1.364

123.28
132.04
108.66

86.60
77.46
100.70

July
August
September . . .

-0.02
0.24
0.62

0.40
0.63
0.79

1.03
0.76
1.01

507.
506.
507.

2,115.1
2,119.5
2,128.7

6.934

1.370
,368
.369

114.86
101.33
0)143.70

33.50
17.39
40.54

October
November . . .
December . . .

-0.20
0.84
0.78

0.60
1.06
1.09

0.67
0.72
0.95

504.9
508.2
510.8

2,134.5
2,153.2
2,171.0

B>6.940

1.362
1.357
1.355

81.13
74.20
41.34

47.75
52.68
4.13

January
February
March

0.79
1.14
0.51

1.10
0.91
0.31

0.72
0.88
0.64

513.8
518.1
518.3

2,190.7
2,203.8
2,200.3

6.881

1.345
1.345
1.348

80.33
58.60
.93.16

53.58
21.95
26.83

April
May
June

0.61
1.18
1.44

0.21
0.72
1.10

0.19
0.52
rO.77

519.6
524.6
530.9

2,197.3
2,208.4
2,227.1

6.801

357
341
333

84.44
66.58
72.70

14.87
27.46
-45.89

July
August
September . . .

0.90
1.44
1.11

0.69
0.77
0.56

0.48
0.76
0.75

534.6
541.2
546.1

2,238.3
2,250.7
2,259.1

6.671

1.328
1.320
1.318

57.72
67.37
65.51

16.58
3.66
-14.63

October
November . . .
December . . .

0.44
0.96
1.05

0.35
0.49
0.59

0.57
rl.00
rl.O2

546.5
548.7
552.5

2,258.8
2,257.1
2,262.2

6.590

1.323
1.322
1.332

123.61
71.23
106.27

65.16
64.68
38.89

0.10
0.61
1.17

0.12
0.30
0.57

0.57
0.47
rO.34

551.1
556.7
565.6

2,257.5
2,273.1
2,295.7

6.563

330
333
330

-20.22
54.20
44.02

56.50
-51.02
r-29.54

1.21
H>1.93
pi.21

rl.14
rl.00
pO.77

r0.58
p0.82
(NA)

574.0
584.1
H>p588.5

2,328.4
r2,347.5
E>p2,354.7

330
313
pi.304

(NA)

p6.365

r-40.32
r21.73
p-4.40

1985

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .

S

1.29

October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
Series 102 reached its high value (2.79) in January 1983; series 104 reached its high value (1.31) in January 1983.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.
3
Average for weeks ended July 7 and 14.

ICO JULY 1986




71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

Minor Economic
Process

Credit Flows—Continued

Timing Class

Year
and
month

U,L

113. Net change
in consumer
Installment
credit

(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)

78.66
69.41
60.96

April
May
June

(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised

1984
January
February
March

111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding

Bank Reserves

Credit Difficulties
L,L,L

L.L.L

MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued

110. Funds
raised by private
nonfinancial
borrowers in
credit markets
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

L, Lr L

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures1©

(Mil. dol.)

L.L.L

39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and over
(Percent)

L, U, U

93. Free
reserves ©

Interest Rates

L, Lg, U

94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal

L, Lg, Lg

119. Federal
funds rate ©

C, Lg, Lg

114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills ©

Reserve ©

(Mil. dot.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

2

14.6
17.3
19.4

492,968

1,783.3
1,713.1
3,479.7

1.84
E>1.78
1.85

-102
376
-241

715
567
952

9.56
9.59
9.91

8.93
9.03
9.44

74.64
114.13
95.18

19.
21.
B>21.

635,480

2,429.4
3,074.3
3,427.4

2.06
1.96
2.02

-742
-2,408
-2,526

1,234
2,988
3,300

10.29
10.32
11.06

9.69
9.90
9.94

July
August
September . . ,

73.58
80.62
63.04

14.
12.
12.

2,783.7
1,968.7
2,045.6

1.96
1.93
2.10

-5,311

476,812

E>-7,328
-6,614

5,924
>8,017
7,242

11.23
1)11.64
11.30

10.13
©10.49
10.41

October
November . . .
December . . .

70.61
71.95
75.31

14.
13.
9.2

674,436

1,471.3
2,763.7
2,328.4

1.91
1.97
2.09

-5,397
-3,924
-2,333

6,017
4,617
3,186

9.99
9.43
8.38

9.97
8.79
8.16

January
February
March

75.16
82.16
99.59

13.2
10.3
13.0

533,160

rl,821.0
2,409.8
3,485.8

2.20
2.19
2.40

-650
-386
-827

1,395
1,289
1,593

8.35
8.50
8.58

7.76
8,22
8.57

April
May
June

90.52
75.96
52.69

10.0
9.4
3.7

P3.279.8
P3.261.9
p2,995.6

-585
-530
-300

1,323
1,334
1,205

8.27

552,300

.00
,56
,01

July
August
September . . .

81.43
72.61
EH23.96

9.3
8.5
10.3

. 652,844

p2,150.5
p3,162.4
pi,925.3

-252
-246
-623

1,107
1,073
1,289

7.92

October
November . . .
December . , .

78.70
67.72
77.72

15.6
10.9
11.8

0)965,412

pi,824.6
P5.026.9
pi,707.8

2.32

-434
-813
-260

1,187
1,741
1,318

7.99
8.05
8.27

7,17
7.20
7.07

91.86
61.19
37.04

12.6
4.1
3.8

rp3,590.4
rp3,518.2
rp2,746.6

2.27
2.29
2.41

341
213
135

770
884
761

8.14

p504,260

,04
03
59

r51.55
P64.67

2.7
8.0
P3.7

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

-92
r-38
pl45

893
876
p803

1985

05
18

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June

<NA)

July . . . . . . . .
August
September . . .

06
12
6.21
3

6.70

"5.84

JULY 1986

ItCIt

October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pifes 13, 32, 33, and 34.
x
Series 14 reached its high value (829.2) in July 1983.
a
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.
9
Average for weeks ended July 2, 9, 16, and 23.
"Average for weeks ended July 3, 10, 17, and 24.

72



CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ g

Minor Economic
Process

Interest Rates—Continued

Timing Class

Year
and
month

MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued

Lg, Lg, Lg

116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
corporate

C Lg, Lg

115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury

bonds ©

bonds ©

(Percent)

(Percent)

U, Lg, Lg

117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond average©

(Percent)

Outstanding Debt

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

118. Secondary
market yields
onFHA
mortgages ©

67. Sank rates
on short-term
business

109. Average
prime rate
charged by

loans ©

banks ®

66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

101. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)

Revised1

1984
12.65
12.80
13.36

11.29
11.44
11.90

9.63
9.64
9.93

13.08
13.20
13.68

11.06

11.00
11.00
11.21

382,794
388,578
393,658

268,086
273,035
282,086

260,531
264,569
271,498

12.75
12.80
12.85

13.64
14.41

9.96
10.49
.67

13.80
H>15.01
14.91

12.45

E>14.49

12.17
12.89
|H)13.00

11.93
12.39
12.60

399,878
409,389
417,321

289,303
295,758
304,150

278,176
284,110
292,452

13.04
13.33
13.49

14.25
13.54
13.37

12.82
12.23
11.97

10.42
9.99
10.10

14.58
14.21
13.99

H>13.29

13.00
E>13.00
12.97

423,453
430,171
435,424

306,942
308,391
311,769

294,570
297,101
301,809

13.57
13.72
13.77

13.02
12.40
12.47

11.66
11.25
11.21

10.25
10.17
9.95

13.43
12.90
12.99

11.29

12.58
11.77
11.06

441,308
447,304
453,580

315,748
320,138
320,482

305,366
308,716
309,644

13.94
14.04
14.10

January
February
March

12.46
12.39
12.85

11.15
11.35
11.78

9.51
9.65
9.77

13.01
13.27
13.43

10.10

10.61
10.50
10.50

459,843
466,690
474,989

324,947
326,776
329,012

314,262
316,337
319,119

14.25
14.32
14.51

April
May
June

12.45
11.85
11.33

11.42
10.96
10.36

9.42
9,01
8.69

12.97
12.28
11.89

9.90

10.50
10.31
9.78

482,532
488,862
493,253

330,251
332,539
328,715

319,701
321,294
318,214

14.61
14.87
14.92

July
August
September . . .

11.28
11.61
11.66

10.51
10.59
10.67

8.81
9.08
9.27

12.12
11.99
12.04

9.27

9.50
9.50
9.50

500,039
506,090
516,420

330,097
330,402
329,183

319,861
321,716
322,412

15.08
15.24
15.49

October
November . , .
December . , .

11.51
11.17
10.42

10.56
10.08
9.60

9.08
8.54
8.43

11.87
11.28
10.70

9.68

9.50
9.50
9.50

522,978
528,621
535,098

334,613
340,003
343,244

325,183
328,823
331,317

15.57
15.68
15.66

10.33
9.76
8.95

9.51
9.07
8.13

8.08
7.44
7.08

10.78
10.59
9.77

9.29

9.50
9.50
9.10

542,753
547,852
550,939

E>347,952
343,700
r341,238

337,163
r337,955
H>r340,217

15.88
15.95
15.99

8.71
9.09
9.39

7.59
8.02
8.23

7.20
7.54
7.87

9.80
10.07
9.98

r555,235
8.83
8.50 E)p560,625
8.50

r337,878
r339,689
p339,322

r339,576
r339,689
p339,622

15.93

8.13

January
February
March
April
May
June

July
August
September . . ,

October
November . . .
December . . .

1985

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .

2

9.11

2

7.68

3

7.50

4

8.34

October
November . , .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
J

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Average for weeks ended July 4, 11, 18, and 25.
3
Average for weeks ended July 3, 10, 17, and 24.
"Average for July 1 through 25.
2

I M J I JULY 1986



7
3

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Year
and
month

950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 99,106,
111)

1-month
span

6-month
span

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

1-month
span

6-month
span

952. S
indicator components
(series 62, 77, 91, 95,
101,109)

1-month
span

6-month
span

961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries

962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areas l

963. Employees on
private nonagricultural
payrolls, 186
industries

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

1984
January
February
March

58.3
70.8
50.0

75.0
70.8
62.5

100.0
75.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

8.3
75.0
75.0

66.7
66.7
75.0

67.5
85.0
7.5

80.0
52.5
42.5

36.3
72.5
70.6

76.5
90.2
56.9

67.8
72.7
67.6

78.1
76.5
77.0

April
May
June

58.3
41.7
25.0

25.0
26.0
25.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

83.3
66.7
66.7

83,
83.
83-

97.5
15.0
35.0

35.0
50.0
22.5

41,
31.
92.

66.7
72.5
36.3

67
62
65,

75.1
69.2
65.1

July
August
September . . .

16.7
37.5
75.0

25.0
33,
29,

75.0
87.5
50.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

83.3
75.0
66.7

83,
66.
66.

37.5
42,5
67.5

7.5
42.5
7.5

19.
52.
76.

27.5
35.
13.

62,
55
50,

63.2
59.2
58.6

October
November .. .
December .. .

33.3
70.8
41.7

66,
58,
50.0

62.5
100.0
75.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

58.3
50.0
66.7

66.
66.
58.3

25.0
70.0
60.0

10.0
20.0
17.5

5.9
72.5
71.6

33.3
17.6
29.4

63.0
53.5
57.0

53.2
49.7
54.9

January
February
March

70.8
50.0
33.3

62.5
50.0
58.3

50.0
100.0
75.0

100.0
100.0
75.0

66.7
50.0
58.3

50.0
50.0
66.7

35.0
22.5
85.0

40.0
40.0
47.5

11.8
72.5
84.3

33.3
41.2
64.7

52.4
47.8
53.8

49.2
47.8
43.0

April
May
June

33.3
70.8
54.2

50.0
r58.3

66.7

100.0
62.5
75.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

41.7
50.0
33.3

58.3
50.0
50.0

12.5
77.5
77.5

55.0
67.
67,

19.6
45.1
86.3

64.7
58.8
66.7

49.2
51.6
47.0

45.9
44.3
44.3

83.3
r79.2
83.3

50.0
100.0
r37.5

75.0
100.0
100.0

41.7
50.0
r75.0

58.3
r50.0
50.0

27.5
87.5
65.0

87,
92,
97,

9.8
82.4
59.8

64.7
13.7

60.8

56.2
56.8
50.8

48.9
50.8
54.1

83.3
75.0
45.8

50.0
87.5
100.0

100.0
87.5
50.0

91.7
41.7
r50.0

58.3
75.0
66.7

75.0
52.5
95.0

75.0
80.0
80.0

23.5
74.5
27.5

64.7
35.3
66.7

61.9
57.6
59.5

57.0
57.0
55.9

62.5
45.8
54.5

50.0

75.0
75.0

100.0
75.0
3
66.7

66.7
r75.0
83.3

50.0
58.3

22,
22,
72.

r75.0
p67.5

56.9
52.9
62.7

P47.1
(NA)

59.7
53.5
45.1

r53.B
r54.1
P48.1

1985

July
August
September . . .

62,
58.
r62.

October
November . . .
December . . .

75.0
37.5
r?5.0

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June

r62.5
50.0
r54.2

2

75.0
45.8

63.6

a

100.0
25.0
3
0.0

16.
41.
"25.0

r45.0
r45.0
P55.0

25.5
P74.5
(NA)

r54.1
r50.5
P44.1

July
August
September . , ,
October
November . . .
December . , .

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6
month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter,
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p l f , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
1
Figures are the percent of components declining.
2
Hxcludes series 36, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
4
Hxcludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

74



JULY 1986

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued

Year
and
month

964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1972 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries

966. Industrial pro- .
duction, 24 industries

967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials ®

968. Stock prices, 500
common stocks 1 ©

960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies 2 ©

75.0
52.9
41.2

55.9
51.
41.

44.1
61.8
52.9

55.9
55.9
52.9

29.4
55.9
44.1

52.9
35.3
55.9

45.6
63.2
52.9

47.1
60.3
61.8

64.7
54.4
50.0

55.9
55.9
45.6

67.6
47.1
61.8

57.4
50.0
35.3

52.9
47.1
52.9

p59

55.9
44.1
42.6

r41.2
P47.1

(NA)

43.6
36.2
36.2

30.4
37.0
37.0

76

79.2
43.8
45.8

66.7
62.5
50.0

34.6
46.2
46.2

23.1
15.4
15.4

34.8
93.5
73.9

60.9
54.3
65.2

68

47.9
62.5
41.7

41.7
37.5
45.8

30.8
57.7
19.2

15.4
19.2
34.6

34.8
78.3
26.1

82.6
76.1
91.3

68

50.0
52.1
66.7

58.3
62.5
66.7

23.1
38.5
57.7

23.1
23.1
23.1

89.1
93.5
37.0

77.8
73.3
85.6

70

45.8
72.9
56.3

62.5
75.0
68.8

76.9
38.5
23.1

23.
38.
46.

77.8
82.2
73.3

72

75.6

54.2
75.0
39.6

70.8
62.5
70.8

38.5
46.2
46.2

38.
46.
38,

76.7
30.0
11.1

75.6
82.2
86.0

70

52.1
62.5
58.3

81.3
68.8
66.7

42.3
23.1
57.7

53.8
53.8
53.8

55.6
88.9
86.7

88.1
92.9
90.5

(NA)

83.3
37.5
r33.3

r70.8
r45.8
p47.9

61.5
38.5
34.6

46.2

60.5
81.0
94.0

90.5
90.5

48

October
November . . .
December . . .

34.6
30.8
30.8

39

July
August
September . . ,

50.0
50.0
42.3

56

April
May
June

83.3
66.7
70.8

65

January
February
March

66.7
43.8
66.7

36

October
November . . .
December , . .

76

59

July
August
September . . .

41.5
25.5
58.7

(NA)

35.3
58.8
26.5

52.1
10.6
60.6

4-Q moving
average

71

April
May
June

73.
65,
42,

p5O

91.2
79.4
85.3

38.5
61.5
65.4

52

67.6
50.0
52.9

95.8
91.7
87.5

'49

January
February
March

87.5
91.7
64.6

'54

1-quarter

6-month
span

58

9-month
span

1-month
span

56

1-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month

9-month
span

(4-quarter span)

1984

1985

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June

61.8
r32.4
P58.8

July . . . .
August . .
September

r77.1
r39.6
p33.3

53.8
61.5
65.4
3

3

50.0
57.7

61.9
50.0
77.4

50.0

October . .
November
December
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
'Based on 47 industries through June 1984, on 46 industries through April 1985, on 45 industries through December 1985, on 43 industries
through January 1986, and on 42 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the
source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on average for July 1, 8, 15, and 22,

JULY 1986



75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q
970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment,
21 industries

Year
and
quarter

a. Actual
expenditures

(1-Q span)

b. Later
projections

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade' @

971. New orders, manufacturing1©

c. Early
projections

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and t r a d e 1 ©

Anticipated

Actua

Anticipated

Actual

(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

DIFFUSION INDEXES- Continued

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4=Q span)

1933
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

47. 6
66. 7
90. 5
81. 0

42.9
54.8
76.2
76.2

66
74
78
84

66
77
82
85

62
66
71
74

64
73
80
81

80

76. 2

90
86
84
79

88
91
90
88

80
79
74
74

84
86
88
84

85
84
82
80

88
90

76, 2
71. 4

57.1
78.6
92.9
54.8

....

57.1
73.8
61.9
57.1

52. 4
76. 2
61, 9
47. 6

47.6
85.7
76.2
42.9

74
74
76
75

82
84
82
80

70
69
70
70

80
81
81
78

76
74
75
74

84
84
84
81

19.0
(NA)

33, 3
61. 9

47.6
81.0
54.8

76

(NA)

78
81
81

72

(NA)

82
83
84

70

....

(NA)

81
84
83

38.1
50.0
81.0
95.2

....

66

68

74
74

78
84
86

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

88.1
71.4
88.1
61.9

....
....

64. 3

90
88

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1

H

974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade1 (u)

975. Level of inventories
manufacturing and trade

Actual

Year
and
quarter

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

trade1©

Anticipated

Actual

978. Selling prices, retail

977. Selling prices, wholesale

976. Selling prices, manufacturing1 @

'©

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

DIFFUSION INDEXES Continued

trade' ©
Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

48
54
58
61

50
56
59
60

54
59
62
68

52
58
62
64

61
60
65
68

65
66
70
69

63
t>2
i)8
r
1O

68
64
68
72

68
72
69
72

69
67
70
71

65
63
62
62

62
64
64
62

72
70
70
70

66
70
70
66

74
70
70
68

74
76
76
72

13
69
i>5
t)5

72

72
68
70
70

70

76
75
72

74
74
68

....

60
58
58
59

60
62
59
58

66
63
60
61

64
66
62
58

65
62
61
61

70
70
64
62

i>4
i>0
c9
tS
O

68
66
66
60

66
63
66
62

65
70
67
62

58

62
65
62

1

64
64
62

60

(NA)

58
58
60

59

(NA)

59
60
59

62

....

(NA)

62
62
64

....
....

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

(NA)

i9

(NA)

....

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated by<§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

76




JULY 1986

Dun §

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change

1985

Diffusion index components

November

1986
December

January

February

March

Mayr

April

June'3

961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Hours)
All manufacturing industries

40.7

40.9

40.8

40.7

40.7

40.7

40.7

40.6

Percent rising of 20 components .

(52)

(95)

(22)

(22)

(72)

(45)

(45)

(55)

Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

39.9
39.4

40.2
39.9

40.4
40.0

40.0
39.7

40.2
39.4

40.3
39.1

40.3
39.4

40,2
39.4

Stone, clay, and glass products...
Primary metal industries

41.8
41.9

41.8
42.1

42.7
41.9

41.9
42.1

41.9
41.9

r42.4
r41.3

42.3
41.7

42.4
41.6

Fabricated metal products .,
Machinery, except electrical ,

41.5
41.6

41.6
41.7

41.5
41.6

41.5
41.6

41.4
41.6

41.2
41.8

41.1
41.8

41.0
41.6

Electric and electronic equipment ..
Transportation equipment

40.9
42.7

41.1
43.0

41.0
42.8

40.9
42.7

41.0
42.7

41.1
42.1

41.0
42.0

41,0
42.2

. Instruments and related products ...
Miscellaneous manufacturing

41.0
40.2

41.6
40.7

41.1
39.8

41.2
39,3

41.3
39.9

41.3
39.7

40.8
39.4

41.0
39.9

Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers

40.0
36.4

40.1
38.1

40.1
37.7

39.8
36.6

39.9
37.5

40.2
36.6

40.3
38.0

40.1
38.9

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

40.8
36.8

41.0
36.8

40.8
36.7

40.6
36.3

40.7
36.5

r41.3
36.9

41.1
36.5

40.5
36.7

Paper and allied products,
Printing and publishing

43.3
37.9

43.5
38.1

43.6
38.0

43.5
38.0

43.5
38.0

43.0
38.0

43.2
38.0

43.3
38.0

Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and coal.products ..

41.9
43.2

42.0
43.6

41.9
43.5

41.8
43.7

41.9
43.8

41.9
r43.6

42.0
43.3

41.8
43.8

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products .
Leather and leather products

41.3
37.6

42.0
37.9

41.4
37.1

41.0
36.0

41.3
36.3

r41.1
r36.3

41.1
36.6

41.1
37.3

Durable goods industries:

Nondurable goods industries:

964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES '
(Millions of dollars)
103,796

Percent rising of 34 components .

+ 107,531

108,194

107,545

- 104,682

- 103,747

102,624

+ 104,772

(50)

All durable goods industries

(35)

(56)

(44)

(43)

(62)

(32)

(59)

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products...

+

10,560
15,280

-

10,059
14,146

+
+

10,596
14,326

+
-

10,614
14,274

-

9,762
13,141

+

9,625
14,653

-

8,831
14,024

+
-

9,191
13,914

Machinery, except electrical .
Electrical machinery

+
+

17,983
16,250

+

16,195
16,297

-

15,603
15,346

+
+

18,277
15,704

+

16,081
17,066

+
-

16,800
15,467

-

16,441
14,650

+
+

17,117
17,725

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries.

-

24,199
19,524

+
+

31,031
19,803

+

31,002
21,321

-

28,458
20,218

+
-

28,496
20,136

+

26,497
20,705

+
+

27,933
20,745

+

26,001
20,824

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.

JULY 1986



77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued

1986

1985

Diffusion index components

November

December

January

February

Mayr

April'

March

June

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1977 = 100)

AH industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components

+

125.4 +

126.4

126.7

125.6

124.4

125.2

124.7

124.1

(62)

2

(58)

(83)

(38)

(33)

(77)

(40)

(33)

(NA)
146.8

(NA)
(NA)

120.4
76.9

(NA)
72.2

107.8
142.5

107.2
141.5

Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures ,...

+

115.6
144.1

116.5
142.1

119.9
143.9 +

118.2
145.4

118.5
145.0

119.0
146.5

Clay, glass, and stone products,.
Primary metals

+

115.2
83.6

118.2
81.7

120.2
84.9

118.8
80.7

120.0
77.4

121.5
78.1

Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery...

+

107.9
145.6

108.8
146.0

109.3 +
146.2

109.4
144.6

108.5
143.2

108.6
141.6

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment ,

168.9
126.5

171.9
126.8

167.9
128.9

165.5
128.1

165.6
124.3

167.1
127.9

166.4
125.6

163.6
126.8

Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures

140.7
94.5

140.6
96.3

141.1 +
99.0

141.8
98.1

142,5 +
97.2 +

143.0
97.9 +

141.0
98.0

140.5
(NA)

Foods
Tobacco products ..

131.4
104.5

132.6
103.5

133.2
99.3

133.8
97.9

133.0
93.0

134.0
101.4

135.2
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

Textile mill products ...
Apparel products

108.0
103.9

106.3
105.0

107.4
105.8

110.4
103.6

108.4 +
104.0 +

110.0
104.3

109.4
103.6

(NA)
(NA)

Paper and products
Printing and publishing ...

128.2
159.0

132.3
158.4

133.1
158.9

132.1
155.4

132.0 o
158.1 +

132.0 +
160.0 +

132.2
161.1

(NA)
160.5

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products ....

128.0
87.3

128.5
88.7

130.5
92.6

130.9
88.4

131.1 +
87.8 +

132.0 o
91.3 +

132.0
91.6

(NA)
91.9

Rubber and plastics products.
Leather and products

150.5
72.1

150.0
69.9

150.5
67.5

150.7
67.0

149.0
65.4

147.3 +
64.6

147.5
63.6

(NA)
(NA)

Metal mining ...
Coal

78.3
125.5

74.3
128.0

75.5 +
130.6

77.2
124.9

78.1
123.5

+

(NA)
124.5

(NA)
122.4

(NA)
(NA)

Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals ..

103.5
119.0

104.4
114.0

103.6
117.1 +

101.4
120.2

98.5
115.2 +

97.1
120.7

95.9
117.0

94.3
(NA)

+

+

Nondurable manufactures:
+

Mining:

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
x

( + ) ^ rising, (o) - unchanged, and ( = ) - falling.

The "r" indicates revised; "p",

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

3

78



JULY 1986

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q |

Diffusion index components

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directionsof Change-Continued

1986

1985

December

November

January

March

February

April

July1

June

May

967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES RAW INDUSTRIALS 2

R w industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . .
a

-

Percent rising of 13 components

234.5

+

235.0

+

(58)

(23)

236.9

-

233.3

-

-

219.9

221.3

• (54)

(35)

(38)

(62)

223.1

(62)

+

225.0

+

227.5

(65)

(50)

Dollars

Copper scrap

...

.

Lead scrap

. . . (pound)
(kilogram)..
(pound)
(kilogram)..

0.454
l.OOl

+

0.473
1.043

0.499
1.100

0.108
0.238

-

o

0.108
0.238

0.107
0.236

(U.S. ton)..
(metric ton)..

-

77.000
84.877

+

79.800
87.964

Tin

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

3
5.640
12.434

o

3

Zinc

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

0.354
0.780

Steel scrap .

-

0.486
1.071

+

0.505
1.113

-

0.488
1.076

-

0.464
1.023

+

0.466
1.027

-

0.431
0.950

_

0.104
0.229

+

0.105
0.231

+

0.110
0.243

+

0.114
0.251

+

0.126
0.278

+

0.131
0.289

-

82.000
90.389

-

77.250
85.153

-

74.400
82.011

-

71.500
78.814

-

70.000
77.161

o

70.000
77,161

3
5.640
12.434

-

4.000
8.818

-

3.284
7.240

3.115
6.867

-

3.060
6.746

-

3,055
6.735

+

82.500
90.940

5.640
12.434

0

3
5.640
12.434

o

0.354
0.780

0

0.354
0.780

0

0.354
0.780

o

0.354
0.780

-

0.339
0.747

+

0.354
0.780

+

0.395
0.871

+

0,431
0.950

0.246
0.269

-

0.242
0.265

0.248
0.271

-

0.231
0.253

-

0.225
0.246

+

0.231
0.253

+

0.240
0.262

+

0.247
0.270

-

0.242
0.265

0.606
1.336

+

0.628
1.384

+

0.639
1.409

+

0.656
1.446

+

0.669
1.475

0

Burlap

(yard).,
(meter)..

Cotton

(pound)
(kilogram)..

-

0.571
1.259

+

0.573
1.263

Print cloth .

(yard).
(meter)..

+

0.710
0.776

+

0.718
0.785

-

0.698
0.763

-

0.658
0.720

-

0.642
0.702

+

0.648
0.709

+

0.690
0.755

+

. 0.702
0.768

+

0.715
0.782

Wool tops ..

(pound).
(kilogram)..

o

3.000
6.614

o

3.000
6.614

n

3.000
6.614

n

3.000
6.614

o

3.000
6.614

o

3.000
6.614

n

3.000
6.614

+

3.200
7.055

o

3.200
7.055

Hides

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.726
1.601

-

0.707
1.559

-

0.674
1.486

+

0.682
1.504

-

0.678
1.495

+

0.729
1.607

+

0.786
1.733

-

0.785
1,731

-

0.780
1.720

(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..

o

50.000
110.230

o

50.000
110.230

0

50.000
110.230

0

50.000
110.230

o

50.000
110.230

o

50.000
110.230

0

50.000
110.230

0

50.000
110.230

0

50.000
110.230

Rubber

. (pound)
(kilogram)..

-

0.422
0.930

-

0.404
0.891

0.406
0.895

+

0.425
0.937

-

0.423
0.933

-

0.392
0.864

+

0.401
0.884

+

0.408
0.899

+

0.434
0.957

Tallow

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

0.134
0.295

+

0.136
0.300

0.139
0.306

-

0.128
0.282

-

0.106
0.234

+

0.108
0.238

-

0.100
0.220

0.087
0.192

+

0.095
0.209

•

Rosin

+

+

+

+

0.591
1.303

+

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available.

0.667
1.470

The "r" indicates revised; "p",

1

The index is the average for July 1-25; component prices are averages for July 1, 8, 15, and 22.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Official price for October 23, 1985.
2

JULY 1986



79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

H H

b. Difference

a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1

1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)

217. Per capita
gross national
product in 1982
dollars

Revised 1

b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1

Revj

^d 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

213. Final sales
In 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars

Year
and
quarter

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME

Revised 1

3,265.8
3,367.4
3,443.9
3,545.8

53.3
101.6
76.5
101.9

6,8
13.0
9.4
12.4

3,186.6
3,258.3
3,306.4
3,365.1

27.3
71.7
48.1
58.7

3,5
9.3
6.0
7.3

13.619
13,894
14,063
14,277

3,228.9
3,267.6
3,307.4
3,338.1

3,670.9
3,743.8
3.799.7
3,845.6

125.1
72.9
55.9
45.9

14.9
8,2
6.1
4.9

3,444.7
3,487.1
3.507.4
3,520.4

79.6
42.4
20.3
13.0

9.8
5.0
2.3
1.5

14,582
14,730
14,778
14,795

3,359.6
3,430.0
3,446.8
3,486.4

....

3,909.3
3,965.0
4,030.5
4,087.7

63.7
55.7
65.5
57.2

6.8
5.8
6.8
5.8

3,547.0
3,567.6
3,603.8
3,622,3

26.6
20,6
36.2
18.5

3.1
2.3
4.1
2.1

14,874
14,928
15,041
15,080

3,523.9
3,550.2
3,603.1
3,627.5

....

4,149.2
p4,182.3

61.5
P33.1

6.2
P3.2

3,655.9
p3,665.7

33.6
p9.8

3.8
pl.l

15,188
pl5,197

3,616.1
p3,646.1

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

Q j

( 3

GNP AND PERSONAL fNCOME—Continued
230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income

Year
and
quarter

224. Current dollars

225. Constant
(1982) dollars

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

231. Total in 1982
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

2;J3. Durable goods
in 1982 dollars

227. Per capita in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1

1983

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

2,345.7
2,395.4
2,443.2
2,527.9

2,288.4
2,311.1
2,335.4
2,392.7

9,780
9,855
9,933
10,151

2,146.6
2,213.0
2,262.8
2,315,8

2,094.2
2,135.1
2,163.0
2,191.9

266.7
284.5
295.2
310,0

263.3
280.0
288.5
300.5

2,612.7
2,646.3
2,693.8
2,729.6

2,446.9
2,460.3
2,481.9
2,493.1

10,358
10,392
10,457
10,477

2,363.8
2,416.1
2,445.6
2,487.2

2,213.8
2.246.3
2,253.3
2.271.7

321.2
331.3
331.8
340,4

311.1
319.0
318.8
326.8

....

2,755.4
2,842.3
2,832.0
2,882.2

2.495.7
2,550.8 '
2,524.7
2,540.7

10,466
10,674
10,537
10,577

2,530.9
2,576.0
2.627.1
2,667.9

2,292.3
2,311.9
2,342.0
2,351.7

347.7
354.0
373.3
362.0

332.3
338.8
357.4
347.0

....

2,935.1
p2,979.2

10,723
plO.889

2,697.9
p2,730.1

2,372.7
p2,407.0

360.8
P374.7

345.4
P357.5

....
....

1984

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

2,581.2
P2.626.6

....

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order,
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on paces 40 and 41.
x
See "New F e a t u r e s and Changes f o r T h i s I s s u e , " page i i i .




JULY 1986

BCD

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

B
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

Vpar
leal
,BJ

ana
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
Revised 1

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued
238. Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1

1983

786.3

237. Services in
current dollars

f j

239. Services in
1982 dollars

240. Total in
current dollars

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

241. Total in
1982 dollars

242. Fixed investment in current
dollars

243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

791.0
810.9
827.0
837.9

795.7
806.2
812.7

1,088.9
1,117.6
1,140.6
1,167.9

1,044.6
1,059.4
1,068.3
1,078,6

428.3
481.3
519.7
579.8

427.1
486.9
524.8
577.2

471.0
492.5
525.2
548.8

469.4
496.2
525,8
550.3

855.7
870.3
873.9
880.3

819.7
832.8
831.7
830.5

1,186.9
1,214.5
1,239.9
1,266.5

1,083.0
1,094.6
1,102.8
1,114.4

659.5
657.5
670.3
661.1

649.3
649.7
658.9
649.9

564.0
597.6
605.8
624.4

564.1
592.7
598.3
615.9

....

888.2
902.3
907.4
922.6

834.3
841.3
843.8 .
847.2

1,294.9
1,319.7
1,346.4
1,383.2

1,125.8
1,131.8
1,140.8
1,157.5

650.6
667.1
657.4
669.5

638.2
655.6
643.8
653.2

625.2
648.0
654.3
672.6

615.0
638.1
643.1
658.4

First quarter
Second quarter

....

929.7
P926.0

1,407.4
pi,429.4

1,166.6
pi,173.9

708.3
P691.4

684.0
P667.6

664.4
P671.9

644.1
P648.0

i niru quarter
Fourth quarter

....

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1986

• •
Wm

860.6
P875.5

D

GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST—Con.

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars

1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised1

ano
quarter

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

tear

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

260. Total in
current dollars

261. Total in
1982 dollars

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised1

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised 1

668.1
675.2
680.7
676.1

649.2
650.9
653.6
642.2

285.5
287.7

31.0

-42.3
-9.3
-1.0
27.0

284.9
276.1

278.2
278.5
277.6
266.0

382.7
387.5
395.8
400.0

371.0
372.4
376.0
376.2

....

95.5
59.9
64.4
36.7

85.1
57.0
60.6
33.9

693.2
733.3
743.8
763.4

650.2
678.2
681.0
691.5

283.4
315.2
317.2
329.1

271.2
296.3
295.6
303.8

409.8
418.1
426.6
434.3

379.0
381.8
385.4
387.7

....

25.4
19.1

777.3
799.0
829.7
855.6

695.3
708.3
731.8
749.4

333.7
340.9
360.9
380.9

305.8
311.4
329.9
347.2

443.5
458.1
468.8
474.7

389.5
396.9
401.9
402.2

836.7
P857.2

725.2
P737.5

355.7
P364.8

320.4
P325.1

480.9
P492.4

404.8
P412.4

....

-42.6
-11.2

-5.5
....

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

-3.1

23.2
17.4
0.7
-5.2

....

43.8
p!9.5

39.9
P19.6

3.1

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 4 1 , 4 2 , and 4 3 .
x

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.

JULY 1986



81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

^ J

256. Constant
(1982) dollars

252. Current
dollars

255. Constant
(1982) dollars

250. Current
dollars

NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS

220. National income in current
dollars

Imports of goods and services

Exports of goods and services

Net exports of goods and services

Year
and
quarter

P |
•til

FOREIGN TRADE

280. Compensation of
employees

257. Constant
(1982) dollars

253. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

22.7
-2.1
-19.3
-25.8

16.1
-14.6
-35.0
-46.2

343.6
344.1
357.7
364.7

342.5
341.7
352.8
355.5

320.9
346.2
376.9
390.5

326.4
356.3
387.8
401.6

2,599.1
2,685.5
2,741.8
2,851.5

1,958.8
1,995.0
2,036.3
2,092.7

-45.6
-63.2
-60.0
-66.1

-68.6
-87,2
-85.7
-92.7

373.4
382.1
389,2
386.2

361.3
367.0
375.5
375.0

419.0
445.3
449.1
452.2

429.9
454.2
461.2
467.7

2,963.2
3,010.3
3,052.3
3,102.0

2,153.7
2,195.4
2,234.7
2,275.0

....

-49,4
-77.1
-83.7
-105.3

-78.8
-108.1
-113.8
-132.0

378.4
370.0
362.3
368.2

369.4
361.2
355.8
362.9

427.9
447.1
446.0
473.6

448.2
469.3
469.6
494.8

3,157.0
3,201.4
3,243.4
3,287.3

2,316,3
2,352.1
2,380.9
2,423.6

....

-93.7
p-96.4

-125.9
p-146.3

374.8
P375.6

369.2
p371.9

468.5
P472.0

495.1
P518.3

3,340.7
(NA)

2,461,5
p2,478.8

1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
^ 9
282. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj1

Year
and
quarter

AN
I
Efl SVG

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS—Continued
284. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj1

286. Corporate
profits before tax
with IVA and
CCAdj1

288. Net interest

290. Gross saving

295. Business
saving

292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

Revised 2

1983

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

183.9
192.3
179.5
207.8

13.8
15.4
11.2
12,4

170.6
207.0
228.9
248.5

272.1
275.8
285.9
290.2

424.2
448.2
462.3
519.9

433.9
453.0
472.0
487.3

139.5
121.1
116.4
145.4

242.5
229.6
234.6
240.7

12.1
8.4
7.1
5.6

262.5
271.7
259.8
265.0

292.5
305.2
316.1
315.7

580.7
568.7
578.2
565.5

489.0
505,0
510.0
520.3

179.2
157,6
172.9
165.0

....

250,7
255.5
249.3
262.1

6.8
8.1
7.3
8.3

. 266.4
274.3
296.3
285,6

316.8
311.4
309.7
307.6

573.2
566.8
541.7
524.1

525.6
538.9
560.1
553.5

144.1
183.6
119.6
125.8

....

265.3
p288.0

12.8
P15.1

296.4
(NA)

304.9
P299.1

583.2
(NA)

569.2
(NA)

145.6
P155.7

....
....

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
l
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

82




JULY 1986

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q
Year
and
quarter

SAVING—Continued

298. Government
surplus or deficit

293. Personal
saving rate

Revised

(Percent)

2

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Percent of gross national product

235. Personal consumption expenditures :

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1983

Q |

248. Nonresidentiat
fixed investment l

(Percent)

Revised

2

Revised

Revised

247. Change in
business inventories

(Percent)

(Percent)
2

249. Residential
fixed investment

2

Revised

(Percent)

(Percent)
2

Revised

251. Net exports of
goods and services

2

Revised 2

-149.2
-126.0
-126.2
-112.9

5.9
5.1
4.8
5.8

65.7
65.7
65,7
65,3

10.4
' 10.2
10.4
10.8

4.0
4.4
4.9
4.7

-1.3
-0.3
-0.2
0.9

0.7
-0.1
-0.6
-0.7

-87.5
-93.9
-104.8

-119.9

6.9
6.0
6.4
6.0

64.4
64.5
64.4
64.7

10.6
11.0
11.1
11.5

4.8
4.9
4.8
4.7

2.6
1.6
1.7
1.0

-1.2
-1.7
-1.6
-1.7

-96.6
-155.6
-138.0
-155.1

5.2
6.5
4.2
4.4

64.7
. 65.0
65.2
65.3

11.3
11.6
11.4
11.6

4.7
4.8
4.8
4.9

0.6
0.5
0.1
-0.1

-1.3
-1.9
-2.1
-2.6

-131.6
(NA)

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

5.0
P5.2 .

65.0
P65.3

11.1
plO.9

4.9
p5.1

1.1
p0.5

-2.3
p-2.3

1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
. .
Fourth quarter . . . .

Q
Year
and
quarter

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued
Percent of national income

Percent of GNP—Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services

Revised

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

2

8.7

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdjl

64. Compensation of
employees

C2)

Revised

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj1

(Percent)
2

(Percent)

Revised 2

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)
1983

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services

Revised 2

287. Corporate profits
before tax with
IVA and CCAdj1
(Percent)
Revised 2

289. Net interest

(Percent)
Revised 2

8.5
8.3
7,8

11.7
11.5
11.5
11.3

75.4
74.3
74.3
73.4

7.1
7.2
6.5
7.3

0.5
0.6
0.4
0.4

6.6
7.7
8.3
8.7

10.5
10.3
10.4
10.2

7.7
8.4
8.3
8.6

11.2
11.2
11.2
11.3

72.7
72.9
73.2
73.3

8.2
7.6
7.7
7.8

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2

8.9
9.0
8.5
8.5

9.9
10.1
10.4
10.2

8.5
8.6
9,0
9.3

11.3

rll.6
11.6
11.6

73.4
73.5
73.4
73.7

7.9
8.0
7.7
8.0

0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3

8.4
8.6
9.1
8.7

10.0
9.7
9,5
9.4

7.9
(NA)

0.4
(NA)

8.9
(NA)

9.1
(NA)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

.

1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

8.6
P 8.7

11.6
pll.8

l

73.7
(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
X
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

JULY 1986



83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

^ g

310. Index

Consumer price index
for all urban consumers

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product

Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month

PRICE MOVEMENTS

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

311. Index

311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(1982 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1982 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised2

Revised2

Revised 2

320. Index (u)

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

322. Index

322c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised2

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

1984

April
May
June

107^4

July
August
September

108.3

October
November
December

109*2

0.6
0.4
0.3

4.6
4.3
4.2

299.7
300.9
301.2

0.1

5.1
4.4
4.1

308.8
309.7
310.7

0.4
0.2
0.3

3.6
3.7
3.9

301.5
300.9
301.9

0.1
-0.2
0.3

2.1
2.5
2.5

3,4

311.7
313.0
314.5

0.3

3.7
3.8
3.8

302.8
304.7
304.9

0.3

2.9

0.4
0.4

0.6
0.1

3.6
3.5

3.5

315.3
315.3
315.5

0.3
0.2
0.3

3.5
3.3
3.5

305.8
306.2
307.2

0.3
0.1
0.3

3.3
2.3
2.4

3.4

316.1
317.4
318.8

0.2
0.3
0.5

3.6
3.6
3.6

307.7
308.2
308.6

0.2
0.2
0.1

1.9
1.4
1.2

3.4

320.1
321.3
X?? ^

0.3
0.2
n ?

3.6
3.4
2 8

308.7
308.4
309 1

0.0
-0.1
0 Z

1.0
0.9
1 4

2.5

322.8
323.5

0.2
0.2

2.9
3.6

309.2
309.6

n 0

106'.6

305.2
306.6
307.3

3.4

4.6

January
February
March

^

Q

iifi 7

0.0
0.1
n A

1.6
3.1
A n

0.4
0.6
nd

4.1
2.9
1 6

311.1
313.2
315 ?

0.1
0.7
0 6

4.4
2.7
2 Z

315.9
313.8
314.1

0.2
-0.7
0.1

2.5
2.1
1.0

315.0
316.4
316 7

0.3
0.4
0 1

4,0
106.3

3.0
107^2

3.4
108.1

3.4

109! i

1.3

0.4

1985
January
February
March

110.2

April
My
a
June'

ni'.i

July
August
September

ui'.s

October
November
December

112*8

3.7

110*6
3.3

Il6l9

2.5
111.6

3.6

3.6
112.6

325.5
326.6
007

A

1986
January
February
March

2.1

April
May
June

113.5

piii'.i

328.4
327.5
326.0

0.3
-0.4
-0.4

pi.4

2.5
....

325.3
326.3
327 9

-0.3
0.2
05

113#.2

P2.1

plU.'s

0.3
-0.4
-0.2

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
x
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
*See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

84




JULY 1986

MX*

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued

Year
and
month

330. Index ©

(1967=100)

330c. Change .
over 1-month
spans 1 @

(Percent)

Producer price index, crude materials
for further processing

Producer price index, industrial commodities

Producer price index, alt commodities
330c. Change
over 6-month
spans' ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

335. Index ©

(1967-100)

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans1 @

(Percent)

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans' ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331. Index

(1967-100)

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1984
January
February
March

308.0
308.9
311.0

April
May
June

0.6
0.3
0.7

3.5
4.0
3.4

319.1
320.6
321.9

0.2
0.5
0.4

2.6
3.1
3.4

335.4
329.5
337.1

1.2
-1.8
2.3

3.6
3.7
-0.3

311,
311,
311.3

-0.1

2.5
1.2
-1.1

322.6
323.2
323.8

0.2
0.2
0.2

3.0
1.7
0.2

335.5
333.9
330.8

-0.5
-0.5
-0.9

-1.7
0.0
-5.3

July
August
September . . .

311.9
310.7
309.3

0.2
-0.4
-0.5

-1.2
-0.8
-1.0

323.9
323.3
322.2

0.0
-0.2
-0.3

0.5
0.4
-0.5

332.5
329.5
328.1

0.5
-0.9
-0.4

-6.6
-44
-3.2

October
.November . . .
December . . .

309.4
310.3
309.8

0.0
0.3
-0.2

-1.5
-1.0
-0.5

323.4
323.8
323.0

0.4
0.1
-0.2

-0.6
-0.7
0.2

324.3
326.9
325.4

-1.2
0.8
-0.5

-6.9
-8.5
-10.2

January
February
March

309.5
309.1
308.6

-0.1
-0.1
-0.2

-0.1
-0.3
-0.4

322.9
322.2
322.5

0.0
-0.2
0.1

0.2
0.9
1.1

320.8
315.2
311.0

-1.4
-1.7
-1.3

-10.2
-12.6
-12.8

April
May
June

309.3
309.8
309.2

0.2
0.2
-0.2

-0.3
-1.2
-2.0

323.8
325.3
324.8

0.4
0.5
-0.2

0.9
0.9
-0.1

307.3
305.6
303.8

-1.2
-0.6
-0.6

-10.8
-11.8
-11.2

July
August
September . . .

309.0
307.3
305.5

-0.1
-0.6
-0.6

-0.9
-0.2
0.6

324.4
323.7
322.3

-0.1
-0.2
-0.4

0.2
-0.4
0.2

296.
293.

303.0

-0.3
-2.3
-1.0

-3.3
1.6
2.1

October

307.9
309.5
310.2

0.8
0.5
0.2

-0.1
r-1.9
-3.4

324.2
324.7
325.1

0.6
0.2
0.1

-0.4
r-2.9
-5.1

302.2
308.0
307.0

3.1
1.9
-0.3

r-6.3
-8.8

308.9
r304.4
300.3

-0.4
r-1.5
r-1.3

-6.4
-6.5
-7.2

323.8
r318.9
314.0

-0.4
r-1.5
r-1.5

-7.8
-7.8
-8.1

302.9
r286.6
279.9

-1.3
r-5.4
r-2.3

-20.4
-19.8
-20.9

297.9
299.2
298.9

-0.8
0.4
-0.1

311.3
311.7
311.6

-0.9
0.1
0.0

1985

November . . .
December . . .

-0.1

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June

269
275

273.0

-3.6
2.3
-1.1

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . ,
December . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
Changes are centered within the spans:

IICII JULY 1986




1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month

332. Index

(1967-100)

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

Producer price index, finished consumer goods

Producer price index, capital equipment

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

333. Index

(1967 = 100)

333c. Change
over 1-month

(Percent)

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

(1967 = 100)

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans•

334c. Change
over 6 month
spans:

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1984
January
February
March

317.1
317.9
319.7

0.3
0.3
0.6

2.7
3.2
3.2

291.0
291,
292.

April
May
June

320.2
320.9
321.3

0.2
0.2
0.1

2.4
1.6
0.2

294,
293.
293.8

July
August
September . . .

320.9
320.4
320.0

-0.1
-0.2
-0.1

0.1
-0.1
-0.6

294.5
295.0
295.8

October
November . . .
December . . .

320.4
320.7
320.4

-0.1

-0,3
-0.9
-0.9

January
February
March

320.4
319.0
318.6

0.0
-0.4
-0.1

April
May
June

319.3
320.0
318.5

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .

0.3
0.2
0.2

3.7
2.9
2.5

288.6
289.3
290.7

0.2
0.5

3.0
3.7
2,9

2.4
2.3
2.4

290.8
290.7
290.5

0.0
0,0
-0.1

1.7
0.7
-0.5

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.5
1.6
1,2

291,0
290.3
290.0

0.2
-0.2
-0,1

-0.5
0.1
0,4

295.0
295.9
295.6

-0.1

1.6
2.5
2.4

290.0
290.8
291.1

0.0
0.3
0.1

-0.3
-0.2
-0.1

-0.7
-0.4
-1.2

296.8
298.6
299.3

0.4
0.6
0.2

3.1
2.8
3.3

290,5
290.0
289.9

-0.2
-0.2
0.0

1.3
1.2
0.3

0.2
0.2
-0.5

-0.9

299.6
300.0
300.4

0.1

2.6
1.8
0.3

291.9
292,
291,

0.7
0.2
-0.3

1.4
0.8
-0.2

317.8
317.4
317.2

-0.2
-0.1
-0.1

-1.1
-0.9
0.9

300.
301.
299,

0.1
0.2
-0.5

2.1
2.3
2.3

292.
291.
289.

0.3
-0.4
-0.5

0.1
1,3
3.5

317.5
318.6
319.9

0.1
0.3
0.4

0.4
-2.3
-4,5

302.7
303.4
303.8

1.0
0.2
0.1

1.7
rl.6
3.1

292
294.5
296.7

0.9
0.8
0,7

1.1
r-2.3
-3.8

January
February
March

318.4
313.8
310.0

-0.5
-1.4
-1.2

-6.5
-7.6
-8.3

303.3
r303.7
304.3

-0.2

1.7
1.4
1.3

294.1
r287.8
284.1

-0.9
r-2.1
r-1.3

-7.1
-7.1
-8.6

April
May
June

307.0
306.3
306.4

-1.0
-0.2
0.0

305.3
305.5
305.7

0.3
0.1
0.1

281.5
283.8
283.6

-0.9
0.8
-0.1

1985

1986

rO*.2

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
Changes are centered within the spans:




1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

JULY 1986

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

•Mil

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1
Year
and
month

Real earnings

Current-dollar earnings
340. Index

(1977=100)

340c. Change
over 1-month
spansl
(Percent)

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector

340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341. Index

(1977-100)

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

Current-dollar compensation
341c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345. Index

(1977-100)
Revised3

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised3

Revised3

1984
January
February
March

158.4
158.3
158 9

0.4
0.0
0 3

3.0
2.7
2 9

94.7
94.6
94 9

-0.1
-0.1
0 3

0.9
0.4
05

165*1

April
My
a
June

159.6
159.5
160 0

0.5
-0.1
0 4

2.8
2.8
3 2

95.3
94.9
qc n

0.4
-0.5
n ?

0.5
-1.4
-? n

166*4

July
August
September

160.6
160.5
161 4

0.3
0.0
0 5

2.2
3.1
3 4

94.9
94.0
94 0

-0.1
-1.0
0 0

-2.8
-1.4
-1 2

168 .'l

October
November
December

161.4
162.0
162 7

0.0
0.4
0 5

2.7
3.9
3 1

93.9
94.2
94 4

-0.1
0.3
0 2

-1.4
1.1
0 5

169*8

January
February
March

162.7
163.6
163.8

0.0
0.5
0.2

3.5
3.1
3.1

94.3
94.5
94.2

-0.2
0.2
-0.3

0.2
-0.3
-0.4

171.5

April
My
a
June

164.2
164.4
165.2

0.2
0.2
0.5

2.7
2.3
3.1

94.0
94.1
94.2

-0.2
0.0
0.2

-0.7
-0.9
0.4

173.3

July
August
September

165.0
165.5
166.4

-0.2
0.3
0.5

2.4
2.9
3.1

93.9
94.1
94.4

-0.3
0.1
0.4

0.0
-0.3
-0.5

174*7

October
November
December

166.2
166.8
167.7

-0.1
0.4
0.6

2.9
3.3
2.6

94.0
93.9
94.0

-0.4
-0.1
0.1

-1.0
0.7
1.5

176*2

167.3
168.2
168.5

-0.3
0.5
0.2

2.7
r2.2
p2.0

93.5
94.4
95.1

-0.6
1.0
0.8

3.0
3.2
p2.8

177.*6

168.4
rl68.6
P169.4

-0.1
0.2
p0.4

95.4
95.4
p95.3

0.3
0.0
p-0.1

4.9
4*3

3.2
4.'l

4.3.
3.9

4.1
4*2

1985
3.9
3.9

4.4
3.8

3.2
3.6

3.6

p3*6

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June

3.1

p2.1
pl78*5

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2

JULY 1986



87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector—Continued
Year
and
month

348. Average
first-year
changes @

Real compensation
346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

346. Index

(1977 = 100)

1984

Revised

2

January
February
March

2

Revised

97.6

October..,
November ,
December

(Ann. rate,
percent)

97.5

July
August . .,
September ,

(Ann. rate,
percent)

97.6

April
May
June

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

97.7

(Ann. rate,
percent)

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised2

3.5

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

2

2

1.6

104,6

0.8

104.4

0.8

104.3

1.7

104.4

0.9

104.9

1.5

105.4

pi.2

104.5

-0.3
105.5

3.7

103.9

Revised

2.6

3.1

-0.1

2.0

0.5

Revised2

2.4

Revised

105.6
2.7

(1977-100)
2

4.4

3.2

0.3

0.4

(1977 = 100)

104.9

0.1
0.5

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

4.7

0.1
-0.4

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

370. Index

Revised
5.1

-0.2

358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm business sector

Output per hour, all persons, business sector

105.5

1985
January .
February
March . .

97.9

April .
May .
June ,

98.0

July . . . .
August . .
September

98.1

October
November . . .
December , . .

98.0

3.6

0.6

105.7
3.5

0.3

106.4
2.0

3.4

3.0

0.5

107.3
2.0

-0.7

2.7

3.4

0.2
0.6

0.9

2.7

0.5

-3.2

1.4

pi.3

106.4

1986

January .
February
March . .
April
May
June

1.6

rp0.4

rpl.3

98.4
P3.9

P99.3

3.3

107.3
pO.7

pi.6

105.6
pi.6

P107.7

P106.1

July . . . .
August . .
September
October
November . . .
December . , .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and SO.
1
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




JULY 1986

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Q

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

441. Total

442. Civilian
employment

Number unemployed
37. Persons
unemployed

444. Males
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

445. Females
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

Civilian labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over

452. Females
20 years
and over

453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

(Percent)

446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Thous.)

448. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

January
February
March

112,191
112,683
112,734

103,209
103,846
103,959

8,982
8,837
8,775

4,242
4,133
4.059

3,189
3,146
3,140

1,551
1,558
1,576

7,493
7,300
7,312

5,714
5,713
5,479

78.3
78.3
78.3

53.0
53.3
53.4

53.0
53.7
53.5

April
May
June

113,083
113,722
113,818

104.318
105,175
105,580

8,765
8,547
8,238

4,058
3,943
3,783

3,149
3,100
2,976

1,558
1,504
1,479

7,327
7,067
6,597

5,549
5,328
5,571

78.2
78.3
78.5

53.6
54.1
53.8

54.0
54.0
54.8

July
August
September

113,922
113,718
113,795

105,466
105,222
105,415

8,456
8,496
8,380

3,877
3.864
3,830

3,131
3,181
3,016

1,448
1,451
1,534

6,980
6,970
6,898

5,481
5,351
5,443

78.4
78.3
78.3

54.0
53.9
53.6

54.4
53.2
54.4

October
November
December

114,036
114,165
114,504

105,657
105,971
106.248

8,379
8,194
8,256

3,739
3,727
3,775

3,186
3,070
3,002

1,454
1,397
1,479

6,968
6,778
6,837

5,498
5,390
5,611

78.2
78.2
78.3

53.9
54.0
54.0

54.0
53.9
54.4

January
February
March

114,754
114,982
115,335

106,315
106,587
106,951

8,439
8,395
8,384

3,766
3,763
3,743

3,160
3,140
3,168

1,513
1,492
1,473

6,920
6,923
6,831

5,392
5,098
5,421

78.2
78.1
78.2

54.4
54.4
54.6

54.8
55.4
55.5

April
May
June

115,256
115,339
115,024

106,872
106,939
106,601

8,384
8,400
8,423

3,775
3,696
3,862

3,178
3,199
3,152

1,431
1.505
1,409

6,845
6,816
6,770

5,402
5,550
5,278

78.1
78.2
78.1

54.6
54.5
54.6

54.9
55.3
52.4

115,272
115,343
115,790

106,871
107,210
107,519

8,401
8,133
8,271

3,755
3.633
3,656

3,120
3,143
3,195

1,526
1,357
1,420

6,901
6,683
6,766

5,328
5,413
5,299

77.9
78.0
78.1

54.5
54.6
54.8

54.9
53.5
54.1

116,114
116,130
116,229

107,813
107,969
108,206

8,301
8,161
8,023

3,677
3,656
3,566

3,054
3,057
2,988

1,570
1,448
1,469

6,726
6,713
6,583

5,241
5,295
5,294

78.1
78.1
78.0

54.9
54.9
55.0

54.8
54.3
54.0

January
February
March

116,786
117,088
117,207

108,955
108,561
108,788

7,831
8,527
8,419

3,507
3,799
3,809

2,915
3,211
3,155

1,409
1,517
1,455

6,435
6,922
6,918

5,275
5,158
5,301

78.4
78.3
78.3

55.0
55.0
55.0

53.1
55.2
55.1

April
May
June

117,234
117,664
118,116

108,892
109,110
109,673

8,342
8,554
8,443

3,663
3,897
3,827

3,097
3,125
3,104

1.582
1,532
1,512

6.783
7,037
6,756

5,621
5,673
5,320

78.0
78.1
. 78.2

55.1
55.4
55.7

55.7
55.6
54.7

(Thous.)

(Percent)

1984

1985

..

July
August
September

....

' October
November
December
1986

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.

JULY 1986



OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

DEFENSE INDICATORS

RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
State and local governmentl

Federal Government1
Year
and
month

Advance measures of defense activity

500. Surplus
or deficit

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

510. Surplus
or deficit

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised2

Revised2

Revised

Revised

Revised

Revised2

January .
February
March . .

-154.0

711.2

865.2

66.5

526.5

460.0

21,145
22,667
23,445

15,089
14,273
13,779

142,169
145,648
150,842

6,503
6,884
11,713

April .
May .
June .

-163.9

721.7

885.6

70.0

538.8

468.7

19,185
20,342
19,781

11,398
9,459
11,644

149,369
149,452
151,538

5,139
6,648
6,834

July
August
September . . ,

-171.9

729.2

901.1

67.2

542.9

475.8

20,988
23,098
22,191

10,101
12,647
11,441

152,828
156,271
156,950

7,600
8,090
7,301

October
November . . .
December . . .

-190.1

743.9

934.0

70.2

555.3

485.0

20,821
28,892
26,686

12,901
25,552
7,017

159,226
168,321
172,010

5,167
10,091
7,448

January , ,
February .
March . , .

-162.2

793.3

955.4

65.6

561.3

495.6

22,492
20,377
20,346

12,449
12,432
10,360

174,180
173,704
174,338

11,061
4,708
6,240

April .
May .
June .

-214.8

755.8

970.6

59.2

571.9

512.6

22,655
25,140
29,513

9,658
14,147
11,627

174,867
178,000
179,337

6,130
8,773
11,238

July . . . .
August . .
September

-197.5

792.6

990.1

59.5

584.2

524.7

31,641
34,470
30,753

12,163
17,579
11,702

182,074
187,278
186,401

9,594
10,270
8,106

October
November . . .
December . . .

-217.6

805.8

1,023.4

62.5

592.7

530.2

28,629
25,809
30,768

10,584
10,086
14,088

185,059
182,400
183,504

6,179
6,810
7,152

-201.6

800.0

1,001.5

70.0

608.4

538.5

26,792
29,492
32,124

13,424
9,318
14,368

185,822
188,008
190,756

10,350
7,200
10,447

(NA)

(NA)

pi,039.6

(NA)

(NA)

P551.2

28,162
P29.221
(NA)

12,855
P8.849
(NA)

188,903
pl89>004

6,500
r8,430
p9,589

1984

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

(Mil. dol.)

525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

(Mil. dol.)

548. Manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1985

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

Juiy
August
September , . .
October . .
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
l
Based on national income and product accounts.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page

90



JULY 1986

ICO

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued

1
J

DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continues
i
National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

557. index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equipment

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products, book
value

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military

(Mil. dol.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

570. Employment, defense
products industries

Defense Department
personnel
577. Military
on active
duty (u)

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services,
national
defense

565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
6NP

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

1984

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent)

Revised1

(1977=100)

Revised1

148.8
151.3
151.9

17,861
18,190
18,746

113,575
114,624
120,647

18,448
17,801
17,794

5,682
5,835
5,690

1,391
1,398
1,408

2,130
2,135
2,140

1,049
1,049
1,051

227.'1

6*2

155.6
156.0
157.2

19,017
19,514
20,035

119,870
120,758
121,672

18,525
18,609
18,953

5,916
5,760
5,920

1,414
1,424
1,435

2,138
2,141
2,143

1,052
1,056
1,056

233.7

6.2

July
August
September

158.5
160.7
163.4

20,734
21,315
22,141

123,219
125,276
126,496

18,405
19,181
19,469

6,053
6,033
"6,081

1,444
1,452
1,461

2,142
2,144
2,138

1,060
1,062
1,057

234 ".5

6*.2

October
November
December

163.5
163.3
165.3

22,551
22,581
22,517

125,340
129,092
129,775

18,687
20,152
19,899

6,323
6,339
6,765

1,470
1,474
1,485

2,138
2,141
2,138

1,068
1,069
1,069

244.9

6*4

January
February
March

165.3
167.3

134,455
132,467
131,990

18,762
20,058
20,465

6,380
6,695
6,718

1,496
1,506
1,514

2,146
2,147
2,148

1,073
1,074
1,076

248.9

6*4

169.0

23,091
23,405
23,489

April .
May .
June

170.1
171.2
173.4

24,006
23,962
24,721

131,769
133,958
137,975

19,597
20,603
20,554

6,352
6,584
7,221

1,521
1,530
1,541

2,148
2,149
2,151

1,081
1,084
1,084

255*1

6*4

July .
August
September

173.9
175.5
177.5

25,317
25,923
26,476

140,742
143,848
144,828

21,498
22,489
21,987

6,827
7,164
7,126

1,549
1,569
1,565

2,156
2,157
2,151

1,091
1,094
1,099

265.5

6*6

October
November
December

178.7
180.7
180.7

26,587
26,598
26,270

143,336
142,288
141,497

20,908
21,847
22,440

7,671
7,858
7,943

1,572
1,581
1,580

2,151 •
2,153
2,150

1,099
1,098
1,100

268.'6

6.*6

179.3
176.7
178.5

26,762
26,254
27,080

144,814
144,433
147,801

20,152
21,586
23,059

7,033
7,581
7,079

1,589
1,590
1,589

2,157
2,160
2,160

1,103
1,087
1,084

266.4

6.4

rl78.8
rl79.5
p!79.7

27,565
27,754
(NA)

146,968

rl47,912
pl49,669

22,101
r22,921
p21,929

7,333
r7,486
p7,832

r1,594
pi,598
(NA)

2,150
2,150
p2,143

1,081
1,072
(NA)

p277*.5

p6*.6

January
February
March
April
May .
June .

. . .
. . .

.

1985

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June

...

July .
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

JULY 1986



91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

I

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

MERCHANDISE TRADE
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments

604. Exports of domestic
agricultural products

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

612. General imports

Year
and
month

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dot.)

614, Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

616. Imports of automobiles and parts

1984
January
February
March

17,889
17,208
17,906

3,457
3,198
3,336

4,009
3,848
3,764

26,204
26,420
26,948

4,515
4,660
5,393

3,684
3,751
3,680

April
May
June

17,520
17,978
17,705

3,030
3,245
2,715

3,811
3,976
3,746

28,074
26,012
25,279

6,000
5,113
4,694

3,838
3,635
3,683

July
August
September . . .

19,154
18,123
18,210

3,236
3,022
3,153

3,790
3,878
3,640

31,334
26,866
28,409

4,674
4,021
4,261

3,947
3,773
4,302

October
November . . .
December . , .

18,411
18,395
19,142

2,799
3,242
3,314

4,007
3,905
4,128

26,783
27,331
25,933

4,007
4,637
4,298

3,600
3,817
3,732

January
February
March

19,401
17,853
18,446

2,945
2,842
2,436

4,247
3,970
4,160

28,297
27,985
28,129

4,005
3,833
3,411

4,033
4,999
4,243

April
May
June

17,779
17,414
17,438

2,624
2,215
2,218

3,970
4,073
3,952

28,295
28,685
29,425

4,936
5,237
4,842

4,350
4,073
4,932

July
August
September . . .

17,412
17,423
17,732

2,184
2,347
2,080

3,615
3,897
3,777

26,630
26,083
31,764

3,342
3,252
4,041

4,161
4,489
5,555

October
November . ..
December .. .

17,368
17,976
17,024

2,351
2,446
2,426

3,694
3,918
3,730

27,594
30,285
32,888

3,811
4,367
5,079

4,198
5,461
5,758

January
February
March

'17,006
'17,734

3,854
4,294
3,740

'32,005
28.895
'31,972

4,978
4,254
3,578

5,044
5,378

April
May
June

1

2,320
2,283
2,135
2,043
1,960

l

28,762
'30,272

2,084

(NA)

2,718

5,044
5,054

(NA)

(NA)

1985

1986

17,964
l
17,430
(NA)

(NA)

3,981
3,644
(NA)

l

5,018

July
August
September .. .
October
November , ..
December . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pate 56.
l
Not seasonally, adjusted. See item 7 of "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iv of the March 1986 issue.

92



JULY 1986

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Q |

GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)

Merchandise, adjusted'

Goods and services
Year
and
month

668. Exports

667. Balance

2

(Mil. dol.)

622. Balance

2

t)

C)

January
February
March

(Mil. dol.)
2

(Mil. dol.)

1984

669. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

618. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

620. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

o

2

C)

( )

Income on investment
651. U.S. investment abroad

(Mil. dol.)

652. Foreign
investment in
the United States

(Mil. dol.)

t2)

2

t )

. .
-17,872

89,907

107,779

-25,801

53,614

79 415

22 860

1 C AAC

April
May
June

-25,394

89,053

114,447

-29,094

54,590

83,684

21,104

17,208

July
August
September

-25,166

90,63i

115,797

-28,453

55,691

84,144

21,396

17,991

October
November
December

-25,874

90,522

116,396

-29,174

56,005

85,179

20,861

1 C Q0"3

16,823

1985
January
February
March

-22,832

88,040

110,872

-25,045

55,324

80,369

18,726

16,507

April
May
June

-25,959

89,350

115,309

-30,367

53,875

84,242

22,253

16,804

July
August
September

-24,454

90,234

114,688

-31,675

52,498

84,173

24,502

16,240

October
November
December

-29,451

90,873

120,324

-37,352

52,727

90,079

24,509

15,254

p-30,637

p91,605

pl22,242

p-36,585

p53,548

p90,133

p24,241

pl7,421

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1986
January
February
March

....
. ..

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

.

...

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
s
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfer: under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

JULY 1986



93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q H
47. United States,
index of industrial production

Year
and
month

(1977 = 100)

721.0ECD1
European countries, index of
industrial
production

(1977-100)

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

(1977-100)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

726. France,
index of industrial production

(1977-100)

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1977-100)

727. Italy, index
of Industrial
production

(1977-100)

723. Canada,
index of industrial production

(1977-100)

1984
January
February
March

118.4
119.3
120.1

108
108
107

131.5
135.4
134.2

106
108
105

105
104
105

105
104
103

106.0
104.0
108.0

111.0
108.0
110.0

April
May
Jung

120.7
121.3
122.3

106
107

105
106

102
105

103
102

104

135.1
137.9
138.6

95

103

103

104.3
108.0
108.4

109.9
110.3
111.3

July
August
September

123.2
123.5
123.3

108
109
109

139.2
140.2
139.4

109
108
108

107
107
105

102
102
103

107.3
108.0
110.7

115.1
114.5
112.2

October
November
December

122.7
123.4
123.3

109
109
108

143.3
143.4
142.7

109
110
109

107
105
103

103
103
104

107.5
107.0
107.4

112.2
114.1
115.0

123.6
123.7
124.0

108
110
111

143.0
143.4
141.9

110
109
110

101
105
107

106
106
108

102.8
111.5
111.7

113.9
114.0
114.2

April
May
June

124.1
124,1
124.3

130
111
111

144.9
147.4
144.9

110
111
112

104
105
104

109
109
108

107.6
108.5
1XI . iL
1
1
1

115.0
115.0
116.4

July
August
September

124.1
125.2
125.1

112
111
112

147.2
145.5
144.5

116
112
112

108
108
105

108
108
109

107.3
105.8
110.6

118.1
118.1
118.0

October
November
December

124.4
125.4
126.4

112
114
110

144.8
144.2
144.6

116
116

108
110

i nd

106.9
110.9

119.1
120.1

i in

107
109

107

i nc a
J.UD . U

ion n
XC\J • U

126.7
125.6
124.4

112
113
113

144.6
145.2
144.5

113
113
112

104
105
105

108
rllO
109

T108.0
rlll.O
rll4.5

120.0
rl21,0
rll7.2

rl25.2
rl24.7
pl24.1

P113
(NA)

P144.6
(NA)

P113
(NA)

plO9
(NA)

pill
(NA)

P116.0
(NA)

1985
January
February
March

. .

1U/

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on pace 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

94



JULY 1986

120.8
P118.4
(NA)

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued

CONSUMER PRICES
Japan

United States
Year
and
month

320. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

738. Index ©

West Germany

738c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

735. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

France

735c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

736. Index©

(1967-100)

United Kingdom

736c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1984
January
February
March

305.2
306.6
307.3

4.6
4.3
4.2

312.3
314.2
315.1

2.7
2.4
1.5

206.6
207.1
207.3

2.6
2.5'
1.9

425.4
428.0
431.0

6.6
6.6
6.9

550.4
552.6
554.4

4.1
4.0
3.7

April
May
June

308.
309.
310.

3.6
3.7
3.9

315.9
318.2
315.6

2.5
-0.1
0.8

207.7
207.8
208.6

1.6
1.3
0.9

433.6
436.
438.

6.8
7.0
7.2

561.8
563.9
565.3

3.6
5.1
5.1

July
August
September . . .

311.7
313.0
314.5

3.7
3.8
3.8

•316.2

313.4
318.5

1.6
1.9
3.8

208.2
207.8
208.0

1.6
1.7
2.1

441.5
443.7
445.9

7.7
7.4
6.8

564.7
570.0
571.1

5.*7
5.9
5.4

October
November . . .
December , . .

315.3
315.3
315.5

3.5
3.3
3.5

321.0
319.0
319.6

3.2
3.0
2.5

209.2
209.6
209.8

2.7
3.4
4.3

449.0
450.3
451.2

6.4
5.9
5.8

574.6
576.4
575.9

6.5
5.8
7.1

January
February
March

316.1
317.4
318.8

3.6
3.6
3.6

321.3
318.7
320.2

2.2
1.3
1.4

211.0
211.9
212.6

3.4
3.4
2.4

453.5
455.8
459.0

5.5
5.5
6.0

578.0
582.7
588.1

8.2
8.3
8.5

April
May
June

320.1
321.3
322.3

3.6
3.4
2.8

321.9
323.3
323.5

1.6
1.7
0.9

212.9
213.1
213.3

1.6
0.9
0.2

462.2
464.5
466.4

5.8
5.3
4.7

600.6
603,
6,04,

7.3
6.6
4.7

July
August
September . . .

322.8
323.
324.

2.9
3.6
3.8

323.8
320.7
323.8

2.2
2.4
1.7

212.9
212.2
212.6

0.0
0.2
1-1

468.2
468.7
469.2

4.1
3.9
3.3

603.
605.
604.8

2.8
2.7
3.1

October
November . . .
December . . .

325,
326.
327.4

4.1
2.9
1.6

328.4
325.0
325.2

1.1
1.9
1.0

212.9
213.3
213.5

1.0
0.3
-0.2

470.6
471.5
472.1

2.7
1.7
1.4

605.8
607.9
608.7

4.0
3.6
3.6

January
February
March

328.4
327.5
326.0

0.3
-0.4
-0.2

325.8
324.4
323.5

-0.6
-0.2
(NA)

213.8
213.3
212.8

-0.5
-0.8
-1.3

472.
471.
472.

1.6
1.1
(NA)

610.0
612.2
613.0

3.2
2.8
2.0

April
May
June

325.3
326.3
327.9

1985

1986

324.7
326.9
(NA)

212.6
212.6
212.9

474.7
475.6
(NA)

619,0
620.1
619.8

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

ItCII JULY 1986




95

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

! CONSUMER PRICES—Continued

STOCK PRICES

733c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ©

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ®

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

Italy
Year
and
month

737. Index ©

(1967-100)

737c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

733. Index ©

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©

1984
January
February
March

678.3
685.8
690.6

11.1
10.9
10.9

329.2
331.1
331.9

4.3
4.7
3.4

181.0
171.1
171.3

687.6
699.6
736.1

185.3
182.3
178.4

275.9
263.4
261.1

457.2
457
485

125.3
128.7
128.5

April
May
June

695.4
699.6
703.8

10.0
9.4
8.1

332.7
333.3
334.7

3.1
2.3
3.0

171,
170.
166,

776.0
744.6
711.2

177.9
178.0
175.8

285.4
277.1
272.3

495.0
489.6
468.7

124.9
122.5
119.6

July
August
September . . .

705.9
708.0
713.0

6.8
6.4
6.8

336.6
336.6
336.9

2.5
3.4
4.2

164.3
178.9
180.7

701.3
728.8
738.6

167.2
172.0
178.3

256,
274.
287.0

447.5
478.6
497.0

121.4
128.7
127.6

October
November . . .
December . . .

720.1
724.4
729.5

7.2
7.7

337.
339.

339.9

4.3
5.2
4.4

179.3
180.9
178.9

760.5
774.7
804.7

185,
185,
187.4

287.9
286.0
285.2

503.7
525.9
551.2

127.4
130.5
130.5

January
February
March

736.8
744.2
749.4

10.7
11.1
10.4

341.3
343.5
344.3

5.3
4.5
4.0

186.7
196.8
195.2

839.5
851.9
900.4

195.1
202.0
213.4

294.3
307.9
317.8

578.1
585.1
592.3

147.2
164.1
165.0

April
May
June

756.1
760.6
764.4

10.0
9.4
8.5

345.7
346.5
348.3

3.4
2.9
3.6

196.5
201.1
205.5

880.
890.

915.0

212.5
218.7
234.2

328.9
336.4
337.2

592.0
607.0
591.3

164.4
188.7
199.0

July
August
September . . .

766.
768.
771.

7.5
6.0
7.0

349.5
350.1
350.5

3.1
3.4
4.7

209.4
204.8
200.2

941.6
915.9
915.0

234.8
237.4
253.2

321.9
r316.8
312.3

568.4
597.0
605.7

212.9
r229.8
246.4

October

780.6
786.1
791.6

6.2
6.2
6.2

351.7
353.1
354.7

5.2
5.0
4.6

202.5
214.8
225.5

930.
910.
933.9

273.6
r293.2
r294.9

300.4
r338.9
r356.3

617.4
652.0
r644.5

251.1
263.9
285.2

January
February
March

795.6
801.2
804.4

5.8
6.8
5.5

356.3
357.7
358.5

4.5
4.8
2.9

226.5
238.6
252.7

936.5
964.8
rpl,048.0

327.1
320.8
329.6

383,
409,
450,

647.8
690.0
755.0

303.8
343.9
430.2

April
May
June

806.8
809.9
813.1

258.9
259.4
266.8

rpl,115.6
rpl,157.0
rpl,237.6

345.8
P316.6
rp309.5

rp507.5
rp522.8
rp473.0

780.3
rp756.3
rp765.5

(NA)

P263.6

pi,276.6

P290.1

P499.3

P760.9

1985

November , . .
December . . .

1986

359.1
360.7
361.3

July
August
September . . .
October
November . , .
December . , .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
I

Changcs over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

96



JULY 1986

APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
Series

Jan.

Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance . . ../... •.
•

144.1 101.3

1

13, New business incorpprations .".'
•15.

105.3

Profits after taxes per dollar of sales,
manufacturing,corporations2. . . ... . .

33. Net change in mortgage debt

Feb. Mar. Apr. May

1 3

89.8

93.1

82.8

1986
June July
87.4 105.4

91.3 103.8 106.3 102.8 104.1

101.4

108.6

97.3
-692 -3776 -1172

Aug. Sept.

Oct. Nov. Dec

86.1

81.5

95.6 105.8

94.4

96.8 104.5

99.6

85.2

127.0
100.3

94.5

1053

446

1408-

743

1805

785

-56

51

-512

99.7 100.3 100.3

100.5

100.4

100.2

99.8

99.7

99.6

99.9

99.9

86.8

80.5

91.3

84.6

124.1

107.8

101.6

108.8

81.0

72.8

78.7

186.2

70.1

119.9

92.0

101.3

98.6

96.6

93.7

96.5

97.5

100.1

101.4

99.8

99.8

100.1

100.0

99.4

100.0

100.1

100.2

100.3

95.5 100.8 100.6

100.8

99.5

102.2

100.7

97.7

100.9

95.4

104.4

112.4 103.8

94.9

92.5

82.6

84.5

90.7

99.5

114.0

109,1

96.1

90.2 111.3 100.0

104.1

104.7

100.9

95.4

98.3

104.8

96.1

97.9

614-. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products1.
'

98.3

82.5

,616. Imports of automobiles and parts 1

106.0

72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding in current dollars'*.

99.7

517. Defense Department gross obligations
incurred 1 .. . . . . . . . . v . . .

121.1

92.2 101.9

95.1

525. Defense Department prime contract awards

114.9 100.3 111.5

84.3

543. Defense Department gross unpaid
"obligations outstanding

104.1

.

103.6 103.2 103.6

570. Employment, defense products industries .

100.2 100.1

580. •Defense Department net outlays1

100.5

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products

109.3 107.1

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

.. .

100.0

84.5

93.7

92.0

108.2

108.3

103.1

111.7

113.1

97.7

106.2

93.5 109.3

107.9

112.0

110.0

96.5

81.5

95.0

98.6

94.7

95.4

NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared,by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description
of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No, 15, THE X-u VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD
II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM.
l
Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to
yield the seasonally adjusted net change. ' These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method A seasonal adjustment program.
II
These factors apply only to the loans portion of this series.




97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year

Jan.

1 9 5 2
1 9 5 3
1 9 5 4
1 9 5 5
1 9 5 6
1 9 5
1 9 5 8
1 9 5 9
1 9 6 0
1 9 6 1
1 9 6 2

. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
7 ...
. . .
. . ,
. . .
. . .
. . .

89.7
87.2
88.0
'87.4
88.8
92,7
94.3
94.8
94.7
95.2
95.0

8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
9

9
7
7
7
9
2
4
4
4
5
4

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

3
0
7
7
2
8
4
8
7
2
9

8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
9

1 9 6
1 9 6 4
1 9 6 5
1 9 6 6
1 9 6 7
1 9 6
1 9 6
1 9 7
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 2
1 9 7 3
1 9 7 4
1 9 7 5
1 9 7 6
1 9 7 7
1 9 7 8
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 3
1 9 8 4
1 9 8 5
1 9 8 6

3 ...
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
8 . ..
9 . . .
0 . ..
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. , .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. , .
. . .
. . .
. . .

94.7
95.2
95,2
98.6
100.1
101.1
104.3
109.3
111.8
116.3
124.5
146.6
171.8
179.4
188.1
200.1
220.8
254.9
284.8
298.3
299.9
308.0
309.5

9
9
9
9
0
0
0
1
1
2
4
7
7
9
0
2
6
8
9
0
0
0

4
5
9
9
1
4
9
2
7
6
9
1
9
0
2
4
0
7
8
0
8
9

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

7
4
3
9
9
8
7
8
3
9
5
3
4
2
1
1
2 2
6
6
9
9
1

9 4
9 5
9 9
9 9
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
6 1
2
2
3
3
3

330C. C H A N G E
1 9 5 2 . . .
1 9 5 3 . , .
1 9 5 4 . . .
1 9 5 5 . . .
1 9 5 6 . . .
1 9 5 7 . . .
1 9 5 8 . . .
1 9 5 9 . . .
1 9 6 0 . . .
1 9 6 1 . . .
1 9 6 2 . . .
1 9 6 3 . . .
1 9 6 4 . . .
1 9 6 5 . . .
1966 . . .
1 9 6 7 . . .
1968. . .
1 9 6 9 . . .
1 9 7 0 . . .
1 9 7 1 . . .
1 9 7 2 . . .
1 9 7 3 . . .
1 9 7 4 . , ,
1 9 7 5 . . .
1 9 7 6 . . .
197 7 ...
1 9 7 8 . . .
1 9 7 9 . ..
1 9 8 0 . . .
1
1
1
1
1

982*
9 8 3
9 8 4
9 8 5
9 8 6

.*.!
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .

. . .
. . .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .

= 0.1
- 0 . 5
0 . 3
0 . 0
- 0 . 6
0 . 2
0 . 1
0 . 1

0

0 •1
.
5

0 .7
0.1

-0.3

0.1

0 . 0

0

.

0

0

-. 0 . 17 0

o * . 5
0
.
4
0
.
4
0
.
5
2
.
1

0.2
0.5
0.3
0.3
-1.3

-0.1
-0.5
0.3
0.2
5.8

0.2
0.5
-0.4
0.3
-1.7

0
0

.
.

7
0

0
0

.0 .
. 0 .
0 .
0 .
1 .
2 .

1.2
0.7

0.6
-0.3

0.6
0.5

0 . 3
0 . 1
0 . 1
0 . 2
0 . 7
1 . 8
0 . 7
0 . 3

5

0.5
1.5
1.8

0.0
0.6
1.3

0.9
1.6
0.3

1 . 2
1 . 5
1 . 2

2 0
.
2
3 0
.
3
1 - 0 . 1
I - 0 . 2

0.4
0,3
0,2
-0.1

-0.1
0.5
-0.4
-0.6

-0.3
0.2
-0.5
-0.6

0 .5
1 .0
1.5
2.1

1
1
1
2
1
0
0
0
- 0

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

1
0
5
1
0
1
3
3
1

0
.
0
.
1 .
0
.
0
.
- 0 .
- 0 .
0
.
- 0 .

1.2
1.4
1.5
0.3

0 ,
0 .
0,
0.

5
7 0
:>
5 0

-0
.

0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2

0.
0.
0.
0.

o!s
-0.3
0.6
-0.1

6
2
2
1
1

.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.
0
0

.
.
.
.

0

.

9
8
2
7
9
2
1
7
2

I NPRODUCER

0 .1
= 0.4

-2.2
1.8
-0.7

5
0
1
8
1

3.9
2.4
0.6
0.0

2 - 0 . 6
3 - 0 . 2
3 - 0 , 4
8 4
.
3

-0.8
0.2
-1.3
3.8

-

4
0
0

,
.
.

0 5
.
0 2
.
4
1 .
3 0
.
5
1 .

3 . 5 3

.
.

6

0.4
3.4

6-MONTH

SPANS

0
0
0
0

,
.
.
.

-

.
.

5
3
2
5

.
0

.

0
-

0
0

.
2
- 0 . 2
0 . 0
0
.
0
0 . 1
0 . 2
- 0 . 1
0
.
3

0
Q .
0 .
l .
~ 0 .
0
0

i
^\ 1
t
^f 0
.

'* 0 *
.
7
.
5

.
0
0
0
-

0
0
0

.

0
0
-

0
0
0
0

0

0.9
1,8
. 9
- 0 . 2
.
3
0 . 8

.

.
2
. 2
3
.
5

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1
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6
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0
0
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.
0
0
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0
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0
, 0 . 12 0
1
0

1.7
-0.4
-1.9

1.9
0.0
-1.5

1 . 1
0 . 4
- 0 . 2

4
0
0

.
.

7
0

- 3 . 13 . 7
- 0 . -9 1 . 6
0
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.

0

0
0
0

.
.
.

9
6
4

2
0
0

6

0.3

0 .*

0.2
0*.4
0.2
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0.5
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4
.
5
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l
.
2
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0.0
0.2
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0.0
0.5

1.2
1.0
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.

5
1

1.3
1.9

1
0
1
2

1.4
1,7
5.2
10.3
22.8

3.3
3.9
12.3
15.8
7.2

2
4
1
0
1
1
6
9
2

2.6
7.8
14.0
11.7
1.2
1.1
2.9
-1.0
-0.2

7.4
12.3
17.4
11.0
1.5
0.4
3*3
-1.0
-1.8

1.8
1.6

0.8
1.8

1.2
2.2

1 . 6
2. J

3
4

.
.

8
5

1 .6

.

8

13.0

9.2

1.1
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8.7

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.
1 4 .
9
.
3
.
0
.
3
.
=1
- 2 .

8
5
7
0
9
8
9
2
.1
0

4.5
2,1
8.3
14.0
11.7
1 .8
1.2
3.6
-1 .2
-0.9

4.1
2.0
7.5
13.5
11,6
1.0
1.1
2.7
-0.8
-0.2

4.3
3.8
7.7
14.4
11.8
0.7
0.9
2.5
-1.0
0.6

1 .j
2. I
8. I
1 9 . 2
4 .
5.
9.
15.
10.
1

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- 1

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1
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5
4
3

.
3
.
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.
9
1 2 . 0
1 0 . 7

7
1 3
1 9
1 0 . 3
1
0
2
- 1 . 0
- 1 . 9

- 3 . 7
-0.3
»0.2

.
.

1

2
9
8

1.6

-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0,3

o!i

0.1
"0,0

FOR P E R I O D
-1.9
0.9
-1.6

0
2

3

.
.
.

l

- 1 . 2
1 . 7
- 0 . 5

. 0 . 40
0
. 4 .9

.

0

1.2
1.1
0.1
0.0
0.3
-0.2
-0.4

o'A

4
4

1
0
1
4

5
3
8

0.5
0.0
0.3
0.7

0
1
4

1 . 7
0 . 8
1 . 3
3 . 3

5. 3
4 . 7
8. J
13.
10. ?
6. I
1 .L
2. 1
1. I
-1. I

0.2

0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.9
2.4

3.7
1.6
0.6
0.2
1.0
1 .4
-1.0
0.4
1.5
4.2
»1 .4
3.1
4.1

1 .7

5.7
7.3
10.9
15.1
12.5
8.2
1.4
2.2
2.5
-0.3

0.0

5
2
4
4
6
0

3.2
1.6
-0.3
-1.6
-0.3
0.3
0.7
0.9
1.2
2.6

0.0
1.3

5

2

3
4
1
1
3
0
0
4
4
5

0 .0
1.1
1.3
1.3

1

.

o!2
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3

.
.
0 .
0 .
0 .
2 .
.
.
0 .
.

-0 .8
0.4
1.5
1 .1

.

- 0 . 7
«0 .3
-0.2

4
2
0
0
3

.9
1
6
6

1. J 2

0.2
0.5
0.0
0 .4
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1

5 . 0
. 2 . 38
. 2 . 08
. 1 .4
3
1 . 4
.
. - 1 33
0 . 1
1
.- 1 . 2
.
. - 0 37
. 3 .6
0

i
-1
. 4 1 .
. 4 0
.
.
. 4 0
.

1 .0
6

FOR P E R I O D

4
1
1
1
5
2
1
0
1
5
2
1
1
5

AVERAGE
-

1.1
-0.6
-1.5

.

0

8

2
.0
2

1

8 8 . 6
8 7 . 4
8 7 . 6
8 7 . 1
90.
9 3 . <
9 4 . (
9 4 . (
94. S
9 4 . «
9 4 , (
94 •i
9 4 . 1
96.e
99.8
100.0
102.5
106.5
110.4
114.0
119.1
134.7
160.1
174.9
183.0
194.2
209.3
235.6
268.8
293.4
299.3
303.1
310.3
308.8

0 .
0 .
0 .
.
.
.
0 .
.
0 .
0 .
0 .
.
0 .
,

65 0
.
4
.
1 0
6 0
.
5
0
.
8
1 .
2
1 .

0 . 2

.
-1
.

0. 2
1. 2

8 7 . 7
8 7 . 4
87 .1
88.4
92.0
93,8
94.5
94.4
94.9
94.4
94.8
9 4,7
94.9
97.6
99.9
100.3
103.3
108.0
110.9
114.9
121 ,2
139.9
171.2
178.6
186.0
197.2
216.0
247.5
279.2
295.8
300.3
305.9
309.8
309.2

©

5
3
4
1 6 .
1 7 .

.
. 3
5
.
65
2
50

3
.8 2
9
.
. 4 4
.
9
. 8
5
.
. 9
1 9 .

.
9
8
. 9 .8 5
5
. 2
1 3 . 91 . 3
1
9
. 2
1 7 . 15 . 2
1
1
1 3 . 9
1
1 1 . 8
.
6
. 5
1 . 1 069
1
.
5
0
. 1 . 99
.
8
3
. 0 . 88 2
3 . 6
0
- 0 . 5
- 0 . 3
- 3 . 4

NOTE: These series contain no rev Is Ions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are centered
within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-flionth changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly
and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.




0

0

2
2
0
8

4.
2. j 2
0. I
-0. i 0
- 0
0
- 0
3

0
0
0

- 3 , 4
0 . 0
- 0 . 7

2 5 . 4
2 5 .

.
1
8.1
11.8
15.3
13.1
10.2
2.4
i.l
3.4
-0.4

.

-2.7
1.2
-0.9

16.4
21.7

4 . 2 5
10.6
11.4
15.7
14.2
11,0
2.1
0.8
4.0
-0.3

.

.4
8

6
7
2
1

- 1 . 8
0.0
- 1 . 6

2 2 . 5
2 0 . 6

2.2
2.7
9.9
10.7
14.5
14.5
11.5
1.3
0.5
3.5
-0 .1

0

.
.
.
.

-1.1
1.6
-2.3

2.9

2 1 . 8
2 4 . 0

3
7

»
-

0
0
0
0

-0, 4 - 1 . 1
1 ,S 1 . 8
0. 3 - 0 . 9

3

18.3
21.2

.

8
4

0 .
0 . 5 0

O
P R I C E I N D E X , A L L C O M M O D I T I E S V, E R
PERCENT)
( A N N U A L RATE,

2
2
2

- 0 . 2 0
4 , 6 3

5
6
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.7
-0.1
0.4
0.1

.
.

-1.8
4.0

1 9 7
1 9 7
1 9 7 7
1 9 7 8
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 3
1 9 8 4
1 9 8 5
1 9 8 6

- 0 . 1
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.0

S 0
3 0

0 .
- 1 .
- 1 .
2 ,

!
.
.
.
.

0.0
-0.2
0.2
0,4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1

3
1
a
I

.

- 0 . 8
0
.
5
- 0 . 1
0
.
3
- 0 . 2
- 0 . 2
- 0 . 2
- 0 . 5
- 0 . 1
0
.
2
0
.
0
0
.
7

Annual

FOR P E R I O D

88.8
87.9
87.6
88.1
91 .1
93.8
94.5
94.8
94.7
94.3
94.9
94,6
94.7
97.0'
100.6
100.1
102.7
107.0
110.8
114.8
119.9
138.7
165.4
176.7
184.3
194.9
211.2
239.1
272.9
296.1
300.0
304.4
310.6
307.3

AVERAGE
. -9 0 . 3
. 02 1
.
. 50 . 1
=
. 01 1
.
0
0 , 5
0
0 . 1
0
. 0 . 30 =
. 00. 1 0
. 10 . 3
1
. 0 .3
. 30 . 1
0
. - 40 . 1
. 0 0. 0
. 0 , 26 0

5
3

IV Q

®
-

0.
0.
0.
2.
1.
0 .
0 .

.
.

0

SPANS

-0.4
0.5
-0.5
0.8

.
.

o! a

0

1-MONTH

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3

8
8 8 . 5
8
8 7 . 09 . 4
8
8 7 , 0
2
8 7 . ^7 . 2
8 7 . 8
3
8 6 . «8 7 . 8
8 7 . 5
2
8 8 , 8: 7 . 5
9 0 . 6
0
9 2 . 8. 9 . 2
9 3 , 0
7
9 4 .9 2 . 7
9 4 . 7
94. S
6 94. (
9 5 . 1
3
9 4 . .9 4 . J
9 5 . 0
9
9 4 . f9 4 . i
9 4 . 3
3
9 4 . <9 5 . I
9 4 . 4
9
9 4 . (9 4 . >
9
9
4
9 4 . > 9 4 . 3
94,*4
. 9
9 4 , <9 4 * . i
9 6 . 3
. 5
9 8 .9 5 . J +
9 9 . 5
. 8
9 9 . i9 9 .
100. i
9 9 . 9
9 9 . 7
1 0 1 . 7 1 0 2 . 3
1 0 3 .
1 0 4 . 8 1 0 6 . 2
1 0 8 .
109.6
110.1
1 1 1 . 0
112.6
113.9
1 1 5 . 6
117.0
118.2
1 2 2 . 9
127.1
133.2
1 4 1 , 8
149.2
154.5
1 7 1 . 5
171.2
173.0
1 7 8 . 7
179.5
182.1
1 8 7 . 1
190.1
194.7
1 9 8 . 2
202.0
208.0
2 1 7 . 5
2 4 9 . 7
223.9
231.8
2 8 0 . 8
259.0
264.2
2 9 5 . 8
287.6
294.1
3 0 0 . 7
298.3
298.6
3 0 6 . 1
300.5
301.5
3 0 9 . 8
309.3
311.4
3 1 0 . 2
309.1
309.4
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

0.5
-0 .3
0.0
0.3

- 0
- 0

IIIQ

II Q

IQ

0.6
1.3
0.5
0 .1
-0.2

0. L
0. >
-0.
- 0 . >
0 . J
- 0 . I
0 . L
0 . 0
-0. I
-0. +
-0. I
0. 3
-0. 2
0. 3
=

0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.9
1.0
0.9

0.6
-1 .7
-0.4
1.9

!
.
.
.
.

A L L
C O M M O D I T I E S , OVER
P E R C E N T )

0
.
6
0
.
2
0
.
3
0
.
1
2
.
3
1 . 3
- 0 . 5
0
.
2

9
9
9
9
9
9
9

!
.
.
.
.

94.9
97.1
100.7
100.1
102.9
107.1
111.0
114.6
120.2
139.7
167.2
177.7
184.8
195.3
212.4
242.0
274.6
295.7
299.3
305.3
309.3
305.5

5
4
9
9
9
0
3
0

1
1
1
1
1
1
1

o
1
2
3
4

94.5
97.0
100.7
100.0
102.5
106.9
110.4
115.1
119.9
142,1
167.4
176.7
183,8
194.6
210.6
238,3
273.8
296.4
300.2
304.7
310.7
307.3

,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

- 3 . 5
- 1 . 4
1 . 8

?
7
7
7
7

94.6
97.0
100.3
100.3
102.8
107.0
110.9
114.7
119.7
134.3
161.7
175.7
184.4
194.8
210.7
236.9
270.4
296.2
300.4
303,2
311.9
309.0

PRICE I N D E X

Dec.

AVERAGE

9 4.
3 9 4 . 3
9 4 .
96. 2 9 6 . 9
99. 5 9 9 . 6
100.2
99. 7
102.5
1 0 2 . +
106.8
1 0 6 . 3
110.4
1 1 0 . D
114.4
1 1 3 . §
118.8
1 1 8 . 2
136.0
1 3 3 . I
1 5 5 . 3
155.7
173.7
1 7 3 . I
183.2
1 8 1 . J
194.5
1 9 5 . I
209.6
2 0 8 . 3
233.5
2 3 2 . 3
265.6
2 6 4 . 2
294.8
2 9 4 . 1
299.3
2 9 8 . S
302.4
3 0 1 .S
311.3
3 1 1 .J
309.2
3 0 9 . I

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

0
0
0
0
1
2
- 0
0

.
.

8 7
8 7
8 7
8 8
9 2
9 3
9 4
9 4
9 4
9 4
9 4
9 4
9 4
9 7
9 9
100.1
1 0 3 . 3
1 0 8 . 1
1 1 0 . 9
1 1 4 . 6
1 2 0 . 7
1 3 9 . 2
1 7 1 . 9
1 7 8 . 2
1 8 5 . 6
1 9 7 . 1
2 1 5 . 7
2 4 7 . 2
2 T 9 . 1
2 9 5 . 5
3 0 0 . 3
3 0 5 . 5
3 1 0 . 3
3 0 9 - 5

88,7
88.1
87 ,3
88.7
91.7
93.7
94.5
95.0
94.6
94.3
95.4

8
6
7
7
0
3
4
5
4
3
4

0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6
1.3
3.4
0.2
0.4

,

8 8 . 2
8 7 . 5
8 7 . 1
8 8 . 6
9 1 . 7
9 3 . 5
94.4
9 4 . 5
9 4 . 9
9 4 . 3
9 4 . 8
9 4 7
9 5 . 0
9 7 . 2
0 0 . 1
00.1
0 2 . 9
0 7 . 4
1 0 . 9
1 4 . 5
2 0 . 0
3 8 . 7
7 0 . 2
7 8 . 9
8 5 , 3
9 6 . 3
1 4 . 9
4 5 . 6
7 7 . 8
9 6 . 1
9 9 . 8
0 6 . 0
0 9 . 4
0 7 . 9

89.1
87.7
87.7
88.0
91.0
94.0
94.5
94.5
94.6
94.3
94.7

8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

= 0.6
= 0.6
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.3
= 0.3
0.3
0.0
-0.5
-0.3
=0.2
-0.1
0.4

0

Nov.

88.7
88.0
87 .7
87.7
90.5
93.8
94.6
94.8
95.0
94.2
94.6

3
2
3
2
9
?
B
2
3
3
4

1
3
0
5
3
1
6
1
5
0
0
2
1
1
0
3

-3.3
-3.1
1.4
1 .4
3.6
2.9
2.6
1.7
1.5

9
9
9
9
9

94.5
95.9
99.4
99.2
102.1
105.5
110.0
113.4
117.5
130.5
152.7
172.1
181.3
194.3
206.5
230.0
262.8
293.4
298.0
300.6
311.3
309.3

Oct.

©

2
9
3
6
7
2
6
0
8
8
3

88.
87.
88.
87.
90.
92.
94.
95.
95.
94.
94.

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-

9 5 2 . . .
9 5 3 . . .
9 5 4 . . .
9 5 5 ...
9 5 6 . . .
9 5 7 . . .
9 5 8 . ..
9 5 9 . . .
9 6 0 . . .

1
1
1
1
1

. 6
. 5
. 3
. 6
0 2 . 1
0 5 . 4
0 9 . 9
1 3 . 1
1 7 . 4
2 9 . 8
5 1 . 4
7 0 . 4
7 9 , 7
9 2 . 0
0 3 . 7
2 6 . 7
, 9
9 0 . 3
9 8 . 0
0 0 , 6
1 1 . 0
0 8 . 6

I NPRODUCER

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

2 . . .
3 . . .
4 . . .
5 . . .
6 . . .
7 . . .
8 . . .

88.7
86.8
88.1
87.7
90.2
93.0
94.7
95.2
95.2
94.7
94.6

.
.
.
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
.

Sept.

Aug.

INDEX,
A L L COMMODITIES
[ 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 )

- 0 . 4
= 0.2
= 0 . 3
0 . 3
0 . 5
0 . 1
0 . 1
0 . 0
0 . 0
0 . 0
- 0 . 1
= 0 . 3
= 0 . 5
0 . 2
0 . 7
- 0 . 2

= 0.4
0.2
0.7
0,6
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.7
0.3
0 .5
0.3

330C. C H A N G E

6
6
6
6
6
6
6

2
3
7
3
5
7
0
9
2
2
9

9
7
7
7
9
2
5
4
5
5
4

July

June

My
a

P R O D U C E R P R I C E

3 3 0 .

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3

Apr

Mar.

Feb.

.
.
4 .
1 .
.
.
.
.
1 .

-2.6
0,2
-0.3
1.7
4.1
2.0
0.6
-0.1
0.4
-0.4
-0.1
0.2
0,4
3.4
1.6
1.1
3.0

s!e
7.1
16.5
18.7
4 .6
5.0
6.2
10.2
15.1
11.9
4.9
1.1
2.4
0.6
-0.8

(JULY 1§86)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.
331.

Mar.

Apr.

1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956..,
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
196 7...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971,..

114.5
104.1
102.5
99.3
94.1
100.1
100.3
100.9
97.1
97.1
97.9
96.9
95.1
94.4
105.5
102.9
100.2
104.0
112.2
111.3

113.3
103.4
102.3
98.9
95.5
99.0
101.9
100.4
97.2
97.5
97.7
95.7
94.0
95.6
107.6
100.5
100.5
103.2
112.3
114.6

111.7
103.7
102.6
98.0
9 5.1
98.5
103.3
100.6
98.1
96.9
97.4
94.4
94.4
95.9
107.0
99.2
101.0
104.6
113.6
113.1

111.5
101.0
103.0
98.8
96.7
98.3
101.8
101.3
98.1
96.5
96.3
95.0
94.3
97.0
106.4
98,1
101.4
105.8
113,5
115.1

1972,..
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...

120 .6
143.8
202.3
190.3
201.4
205.5
215.0

121.8
150.5
205.5
185.0
198.4
209.9
218.4

121.7
157.4
198.9
182.4
196.6
212.9
223.0

123.7
159.9
193.6
190.1
204.1
218.1
230.4

1979.. .
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

255.8
290.3
330.4
320.1
315.5
335.4
320.8

26 2 .3
295.8
332.8
318.2
317.2
3 29.5
315.2

267.7
290.2
331.6
317.9
320.0
337.1
311.0

2 82,2
333.0
319.4
322.2
335.5
307.3

331C. CHANGE IN PRODUCER

1952...
1953,..
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959..,
1960...
1961...
196 2...
1963...
196 4...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973 .. .
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980 .. .
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

July

Aug.

111.3
101.8
102.6
96.2
98.0
98.0
103.6
100 .5
98.3
95.5
96.1
94.7
94.0
98.5
105.6
99.2
100.7
108.7
111.7
115.0

110.7
100.3
100.7
98.1
97.4
100.5
102.2
100.0
97.3
94.0
95.7
95.5
92.9
100.9
105.5
100.2
100.1
110.1
111.8
115.5

110. 6
103. 4
100. 2
97. 2
97. 3
102. 2
102. 6
99. 0
97. 2
95. 0
96. 6
95. 9
93. 4
99. 7
106. 7
99. 9
101. 1
109. 0
112. 1
114. 6

110.8
101.4
99.9
96.1
99.0
102.4
101.9
98.2
95.2
97.3
97.3
95.5
93.8
100.6
107.3
100.0
101.3
110.0
111 .0
114.4

ire

-9.8
-12.2
5.5
-1.8
-0.6
-1.2
5.5
-1 .0
0.2
-0.2
-1.2
-6.6
-2.9
3.6
10.3
-12.9
2 .6
6.8

4.4
3.0
13.1
49.7
7.3
-11.4
-3.7
17.4
26.9
20.1
-1.1
4.1
-2.4
4.2
3.6
-10.2

Dec.

t Q

II Q

99 .6
102 .0
109 .8
113 .4
113 .9

107.8
100.3
99.7
97.0
98.9
99.1
101.8
98.0
96.6
96.9
98.3
95.7
95.3
101.3
105.1
100.1
102.4
111.1
113.4
116.3

107.6
99.8
100.3
94.0
99.3
99.5
102.7
97.5
96.5
96.6
98.9
96.5
95.5
102.5
103 .2
99.5
104.8
112.5
112.0
118.3

105 .1
101 .2
98 .6
94 .2
101 .0
100 .6
101 .0
97.0
9G .9
97 .8
98 .0
93 .8
95 .3
104 .6
102 .3
100 .6
103 .5
112 .1
.3
118 .9

130 .7
186.9
202.0
208.0
201.3
204.5
245.9

188.6
205.0
205.6
202.5
208.9
247.2

.0
188 .9
196 .6
204 .6
205 .9
212 .2
249 .3

113.2
103.7
102.5
98.7
94.9
99.2
101.8
100.6
97.5
97.2
97.7
95.7
94.5
95.3
106.7
100.9
100 .6
103.9
112.7
113.0
121.4
150.6
202.2
185,9
198.8
209.4
218.8

111.2
101.0
102.1
97.7
97.4
98.9
102 .5
100.6
97,9
95.3
96.0
95.1
93.7
98.8
105.8
99,2
100.7
108.2
112.3
115.2
125.0
167 .8
185.5
194.0
205.2
214.4
233.8

109.9
102.3
99.7
96.9
98.5
101.4
101.9
98.7
96.0
96.3
97.9
95.6
94.4
100.2
106.9
99.8
101.5
109.6
112.2
114.3
128.7
188.9
195.4
202.2
204.3
204.8
237.5

3 26.4
323.3
315.7
3 29.6
3 24.3
302.2

330.6
318.6
317.8
327.9
326.9
308.0

328 .2
315.5
316 .6
331 .3
325 .4
307 .0

292.1
331.6
318.7
317.6
334.0
315.7

285.3
333.3
323.0
322,0
333.4
305.6

313.1
331.9
319.1
325.3
330.0
297.4

-0.3
-1.1
-0.6
0.1
0.8
0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.3
-1.0
-0.6
0 .4
-0.5
1.7
-0.5
0.3
-0.3
1 .7
-0.5
0.7
1.2
3.7
-3.8
2.5
2.0
-0.6

108 .2
102 .2
99 .0
97 .3
99 .1
99 .7
101 .2
98 .8
95 .7
96 .6
99 .7
95 .3
96 .1
100 .4
106 .8

203.2
216.1
232.6

175.6
176 .9
196.4
208.3
209.1
238.4

167. 6
190. 9
199. 4
207. 1
206 .8
237. 2

204.8
200.8
201.3
203.2
204.0
235.4

286.0
331.7
324.9
322.1
333.9
305.6

287.8
335.2
324.7
321.6
330.8
303.8

302. 2
335. 3
321. 6
319. 1
332. 5
303 .0

316
.4
332.3
319.0
3 27 .0
329.5
296.1

320 .8
328 .1
316 .7
329 .9
328 .1
293 .1

167.8
186.1

195.4

-5.8
-2.7
-5.3
-3.7
7.7
4.6
0.2
-3.8
-2.9
-1 .8
0.5
-0.2
-0.1
10.6
0.4
-2.0
1.8
11.2
-1.0
2.4
12.4
57.8
-6.6
18.6
5.6
-4.3
17.9
11.7
15.0
0.2
0.2
5.0
-2.3
-11.3

-7.6
-1.2
-4.9
-5.3
4.9
1.6
-1.3
-6.1
-2.5
3.8
5 .0
0 .6
3.5
8.3
-4.3
1.8
5.7
7 .0
-0.8
4.6
16.5
26.2
17.9
13.0
-1.9
-5.2
12.1
12.4
32.5
-8.3
-3.8
4.8
-4.6
0.1

-10 .8
0 .3
-1 .9
-4 .0
1 .5
0 .9
-2 .5
-2 .4
2 .4
2 .9
-4 .3
-2 .2
1.9
13 .3
-11 .0
1 .5
4 ,9
5 .7
1 .6
12.8
37 .0
17 .0
-9 .3
-3 .3
5 .2
14 .3
21 .6
11 .5
12 .3
-7 .8
-0 .9

-1.4
-0.5
0.5
-0.2
0.3
-0.8
0,9
-0.1
0.4
0.0
-0.1
-1.2
0.2
0.2
0.8
-1.0
0.1
0.4
0.5
0.9
0.8

-1.4
-0.9
1 .4

4.2
3.8
2.4

2.8
-0.4
-0.9

0.5
2.5
-3.2

7
1 5
-0 6
-1 1

1.0
-1.9
-1.4

2 .3
-0 .3
-0 .2

1.0
-0.6
0.5

-1.2
0.6
2.2

.1
-0 .5
1 .7
1 .6

1.8
-2.5
-1.3
1.1

2 .1
2 .1

3.3
0.7

1.0
0.4

2 .5
1.0

1.0

1.3

1 .3

0.7
-0 ,3

-0.4
-0.1
0.9
2,3
-1.3

0.4
0.5
0.7
-0.5
-1.2

-0.4
1.7
0.0
-0.5
-0.6

1.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.9
-0.6

-1.5
-0.3
-0.1
-1.2
3.1

-l.*5
0.7
-0.5
0.8
1.9

-1 .0
-0 .4
1 .0
-0 .5
-0 .3

2.4
-0.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.6
-1.5

-12.9
1.8
-2.0
-1 .2
0,0
-1.0
-2.9
-2.0
4.9
0.8
-3.3
-3 .1
3.9
14.4
-12.3
1.0
3.8
4.2
6.6
13.4
36.5
0 .7
-15.1
-2.9
6.7
14.6
24.2
17 .1
10.6
-8.3
-1.1
1.5
-8.5
-6.3

-8 .1
0 .8
-2 .0
-4 .5
-1 .2
7 .4
-1 .2
-1 .4
2 .5
1 .7
-10 .3
-1 .9
-0 .4
13 .6
-13 .7
2 .8
5 .2
7 .0
-0 .5
14 .2
48 .2
4 .7
-12 .1
-I .9
10 .4
20 .1
24 .4
6 .8
6 .8
-6 .1
2 .1

-9.4
-10.5
3.4
-3.6
5.0
-1.6
5.7
-2.4
0.8
-2.7
-2.1
-6.6
-3.3
7.4
6.0
-8.2
1.3
9.2
0.8
6.0
12.6
54.4
-2.5
-6.9
-0.8
11.5
25.7
20.1
-1.5
3.0
2.5
3.4
2-3
-11.9

0
0
8
5
3

-0.9
-0.8
2.5
-0.9
-2.3

-10.0
-8.9
-1.0
-1 .0
6.9
-1.0
3 .2
-2.0
0 .6
-5.9
-4.2
-5.0
-1.9
12.1
1.7
-4.1
-1.0
13.2
-0.5
9.7
12.3
57.3
-12.3
-0.2
3.6
3.1
26.2
20.3
-2.4
4.3

5.9
3.2
-0.3
-12.8

-6.7
-1.3
-4.4
-4.2
6.9
4.2
4.6
-3.7
0.2
-4.3
-2.6
-2.1
-3.5
11.5
2.3
-5.7
1.8
9.8
-0.2
6.0
12.5
35.8
-11.0
9.8

5.7
1.3
21.7
16.6
8.4
3.0
0.9
2.3
-1.7
-10.8

-4.4
-3.8
-4.6
-5.6
7.5
7.0
0.0
-4.3
-4.1
-0.4
-0.8
-0.4
-0.4
10.7
-0.6
-1.0
1.6
13.6
-2.3
-0.3
11.8
85.2
-4.5
18.4
4.9
-5.5
16.2
8.6
14.4
-0.3
0.5
6.3
0.0
-11.8

-6.2
-2.9
-6.9
-1.4
8.6
2.5
-4.0
-3.5
-4.8
-0.6
4.8
1.9
3.6
9.6
-0.4
0.8
2.0
10.2
-0.4
1.4
12.9
52.5
-4.3
27.6
6.2
-8.6
15.8
10.0
22.2
-2.1
-0.8
6.3
-5.3
-11.2

-6 5
-1 4
-6 3
-3 6
4 6
1 6
0 0
-6 4
-3 0
0 8
4 2
1 5
2 1
9 1
-2 4
4 1
2 0
10 3
-0 .2
2 .1
11 6
36 6
8 9
19 .7
-2 7
-12 .1
13 .9
10 .8
33 8
-5 7
-2 .3
4 .6
-6 .6
-3 .3

-6.5
-3.9
-4.4
-4.5
2.7
3.1
-1.7
-5.9
-3.6
2.3
5.9
3.8
3.2
8.3
-4.5
0.6
8.3
7.1
0.5
5.8
14.5
26.3
21.3
10.7
-0.7
-6.6
12.9
12.8
33.6

-7.7
-4.3
3.6
-4.1
1.6

2 87 . 5
328 .4
319 .1
316 .7
329 .6
325 .5
305 .7

0 .7
0.2
-0.6
-0.8

-0.1
1.8
1.6

-2 .3
1 .4
-1 .7
0 .2
1 .7
1 .1
-1 ,7
-0 .5
0 .4
1 ,2
-0 .9
-2 .8
-0 .2
2 .0
-0 .9
1 .1
-1 .2
-0 .4
-1 .5
0 .5
4 .3

0
-1
-0
0
-0

99 .7
99 .7
101 .8
97 .5
96 .7
97 .1
98 ,4
95 .3
95 .4
102 .8
103 .5
100 .1
103 .6
111 .9
111 .9
117 .8
135 .0
188 .1
201 .2
206 .1
203 .2
208 .5
247 .5

-1 .0
-0 .3
-0 .1
-1 ,1
0 .6
0 .3
-0 .1
-0 .6
0 .4
0 .4
-0 .6
-0 .5
-0 .3

-0.2
-0.5
0.6
-3.1
0.4
0.4
0.9
-0.5
-0.1
-0.3
0.6
0.8
0.2
1.2
-1.8
-0.6
2.3
1.3
-1.2
1.7
2.7

-0.8
-1.0

106 .8
100 .4
99 .5
95 .1

-0.7
0.7
-0.6
-0.3
0.6
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.6
0.9
1.4
-0.1
1.1
-0.2
0.4
-0.2
0.6
-0.1
0.5
-0.5
0.9
4.2
3.3
1.6
-0.9
-0.9
0.2
O.*9
3 .7
-0.7
-0.8
0.9
-0.3
-1.2

-0.4
-1.9
0.7
-0.3
-0.2
-0.6
0.6
-0.8
0.9
0.3
-1.4
0.4
-0.8
0.9
-1.6
0.5
0.4
1.2
0.0
2.1
1.1

5
1 0

Annual
110.3
101.9
101.0
97.1
97.6
99.8
102.0
99.4
97.0
96.5
97.5
95.4
94.5
99.3
105.7
100.0
101.6
108.4
112.3
115.1
1 27 .6
174.0
196.1
196.9
202.7
209.2
234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0
319.5
323.6
331.0
306.2

AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D
-2 .3
0 .8
-0 .9
1 .2
0 .1
-2 .6
-0 .7
0 .6
0 .5
-0 .7
2 .5
-0 .2
2 .5
-0 .2
-0 .5
-0 .4
0 .7
-0 .2
2 .2
-0 .4
0 .4

-0

IV Q

PROCE SSING,

0.2
-1.9
-0.3
-1.1
1.7
0.2
-0.7
-0.8
-2.1
2.4
0.7
-0.4
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.9
-1.0
-0.2
0.7

0.7
-0.6
0.5
-1.8
-1.7

2 .0
2 .7
-1 .3
-0 .7
0 .9
-0 .4
-1 .0

.3

-0.9
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
0.6
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.4
0.1
0.8
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.7
-0.1
0.6
1.4
2.7
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.3
1.4

1 .2
Q .8
-1 .3
0 .0
0 .1
-0 .3
1 .6

1.0
-0.3
0.0
0.4
-0.2
-0.5

1 ,4
-1 .4
0 .3
0 .5
0 .7
-0 .9
1 .4
2 .7
-0 .9
0 .4
-0 .2
0 .6
1 .4

r.3

PR OCI SSIHG,

-9 .9
1 .8
-4 ,1
-7 .8
7 .5
0 .2
-2 .3
-5 .9
-0 .8
8 .2
4 .9
-3 .5
5 .2
7 .5
-6.0
0 .8
6 .9
3 .7
-2 .7
6 .0
23 .5
15 .7
23 .5
8 .5
-2 ,3
3 .0
9 .4
13 .5
30 .0
-11 .4
-4 .9
6 .1
-3 ,2
2 .1

-11.4
-1.7
-1.8
-6 .3
5.8
-3.7
-3.3
-3.8
-0.2
6 .2
0 .6
-1.7
2.2
12.0
-7.0
0.6
5.8
6 .0
-1 .4
10.7
26.4
45.7
-0.6
2.0
-1.5
8.1
16.3
10.5
19.5
-8.9
-3.8
10.5
-6.9
-0.1

NOTE: Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 26 month and 6-month changes
placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
'This series contains revisions beginning with 1981. 2 This series contains revisions beginning with 1980.




no

-0. 1
3. 1
-0. 5
-0. 9
-0. 1
1.7
4
0.
-1. 0
-0. 1
1,1
0.9
0.4
0.5
-1. 2
1.1
-0. 3
1.0
-1. 0
0. 3
-0. 8
1. 5

1.1

III Q

AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D

-0.5
-1.5
-1.9
2.0
-0.6
2.6
-1.4
-0.5
-1.0
-1.6
-0.4
0.8
-1.2
2.4
-0.1
1.0
-0.6
1.3
0.1
0.4
0.5

-0.2
-2.6
0.4
0.8
1.7
-0.2
-1.5
0.7
0.0
-0.4
-1 .1
0.6
-0.1
1.1
-0.6
-1.1
0.4

-8.4
-10.5
5.7
-8.0
8.7
-2.6
8.4
-4.2
1.6
-2.1
-1.0
-8.3
-5.1
6.4
6.1
-7.6
2 .4
7.6
-1.4
5.4
12.4
56.3
-2.6
-9.1
-2.3
13.9
24.0
19.9
-1.0
0.7
4.0
2.7
3.7
-12.6

Nov.

•3
194 .4
194 .6
206 .0
202 .6
203 .5
2 40 .0

331C. CHANGE IK PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, 3RBDE MATERIALS FO I FURTH 3R
:RCENT>
(ANNUAL RATI'» P]
OVER 6-MONTH SPANS'
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959. ..
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966. . .
1967...
196 8...
1969...
1970 ...
1971...
1972.
..
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977 ...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

Oct.

Sept.

-0.2
0.8
-0.4
-2.6
1.3
-0.3
1.8
-0.8
0.2
-1.0
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
1.5
-0.8
1.1
-0.7
2.7
-1.6
-0.1
1 .4

-1 .4
0.3
0.3
-0.9
-0.4
-0.5
1.4
0.2
0 .9
-0.6
-0.3
-1.4
0.4
0,3
-0.6
-1.3
0.5
1.4
1.2
-1.3
-0.1

-2.8
-1 .5
2,1
1 .6
2.5

7.1
-3.2
-1.6
-0.2
1.3
2.6
-0.3
0.7
1.5
-0.3
1.2
-1.4

June

CRUD E MATERIALS FOR FURTHER PROCBSSIHG
(1967-100)

PRICE INDEX, CRUDE MATERIALS FOFI FURTHI R
(PERCENT)
OVER 1-MONTH SI ANS 1

-1.0
-0.7
-0.2
-0,4
1.5
-1.1
1.6
-0.5
0.1
0.4
-0.2
-1.2
-1.2
1.3
2.0
-2.3
0,3
-0.8
0.1
3.0
1.0

-1.9
-1.0
1.3
0,7
-0.1
-0.9
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
-1.1
1.4
-0,9
0.9
0.6
-0.4
0,5
0.1
0.9
1.4

My
a

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX,

4 .4
-10 .2
-8 .8

5 .5
-8 .5
-5 .1

-8.4
-3.5
-2.2
-4.2
4.8
1.4
0.5
-3.7
-0.5
0.5
-0 .2
-2 .1
0.5
9.9
-2.2
-1.7
3 .4
8.3
0.2
6 .4
19.6
38.9
-0.1
5.4
2.0
4.1
19.3
13.9
14.6
-3.2
-0.5
4.6
-3.3
-7.0

(JULY 1986)

99

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Feb.

Jan.
33 2 .

Mar.

Apr.

My
a

June

July

Aug. 1

1952...
1953...
1954...
1955. . .
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973. . ,
1974...
1975...
1976.,.
1977...
1978...

86.2
84.9
86.5
86.5
90.2
93.8
94.3
95.0
95.8
95.2
94.8
94.7
95.7
96.0
97.7
99.9
101.1
104.2
108.6
111.8
116,3
123.4
142.6
180.0
184.4
195.6
207.8

86.0
84.9
86.4
86.9
90.4
94.1
94.0
95.2
95.8
95.3
94.8
94,7
95.6
96.0
98.1
99,7
101.6
104.6
108.5
112.0
117.0
125.3
145.2
179.5
184.9
196.6
209.1

85.5
85.3
86.4
86.8
91.1
94.0
94.0
95.3
95.9
95.4
94.9
94.6
95.4
96.1
98.3
99.6
101.7
105.1
108.4
112.6
117.2
127.5
149.3
178.3
185.5
198.3
210.4

85.4
85.3
86.5
87.0
91 .6
93.9
94.0
95.5
95.8
95.3
95,0
94.5
95.4
96.3
98.7
99.5
101.8
105.0
108.9
112.8
117.5
128.2
152.2
178.6
186.1
200.0
211.5

85.2
85.9
86.6
87.2
92.0
93.8
94.0
95.9
95.6
95.0
95.1
95.2
95.3
96.5
99.2
99.5
101.9
105.2
109.3
113.2
117.9
131.1
156.9
177.9
187.1
201.4
213.2

85.5
86.2
86.4
87.4
92.1
94.0
94.1
95.8
95.8
94.8
95.0
95.4
95.1
96.9
99.3
99.6
102.2
105.4
109.7
113.8
118.1
133.5
160.0
177.7
186.6
201.5
214.6

85.3
86.8
86.6
88.1
91.3
94.2
94.2
95.8
95.7
94.7
95.1
95.3
95.2
96.9
99.8
99.9
102.3
105.5
110.1
114.6
118.4
131.3
165.7
178.4
189.7
202.0
215.4

85.5
86.5
86.4
88.4
92.3
94.5
94.3
95.7
95.6
94.7
95.0
95.3
95.2
97.1
100.3
100.0
102.4
106.0
110.3
115.4
118.6
135.1
173.3
180.0
190.3
202.9
217.0

198o!!!
1981 . . .
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

266 !9
296.8
311.6
309.8
317,1
320.4

27K9
298.2
311.0
309.9
317.9
319.0

273.8
301.4
310.2
309.2
319.?
318.6

274.8
305.1
309.5
308.4
320 .2
319.3

276.2
306,3
309.5
309.6
320.9
320.0

278.6
307.2
309.8
311.1
321.3
318.5

281.0
307.9
310.5
312.1
320.9
317.8

247 .7
283.9
309.4
310.1
313.3
320.4
317.4

332C.
1952,..
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957.. .
1958...
1959...
I960.. ,
1961...
1962...
1963.
1964...
196 5 . . .
1966...
1967.. .
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971.

0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.7

1952, . ,
1953...
1954...
1955...
19S6...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962.. ,
1963...
196 4 . . .
1965...
1966...
1967...
H68...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972,..
1973.. .
1974...
1975.. .
1976 . , .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985.. .
1986.. .

-0.2
0.0
=0.1
0.5
0.2
0.3
-0.3
0,2
0.0
0.1
0,0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.4
-0.2
0.5
0.4
-0.1

o!e

=0.2
0.1
0.1
0,1
0,3
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0,1
0.1
-0.1
=0.1

o*.o

0,5
2.6
0.3
0.3
0,4
0.6
1.0
2.4
1.3
0.4
-0.4
0.3
0.0
332C.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

II Q

II! Q

IV Q

85.4
86.4
86.2
89.6
93.1
94.2
94.5
95.7
95.5
94.5
94.9
95.6
95.8
97.3
99.8
100.3
102.9
106.9
111.2
115.3
120.2
134.7
177.4
182 .4
192.3
204.3
221.2

85 . 1
86 .3
86 . 5
89 . 7
93 . 2
94 .3
94 .6
95 . 8
95 . 3
94 . 7
94 . 8
95 .6
95 . 8
97 .6
99 . 9
100 . 7
103 . 1
107 , 4
111 . 3
115 . 6
121 . 2
136 . 1
179 . 5
183 . 1
193 .6
205 . 7
223 .2

84.8
86.4
86.4
89.9
93.4
94.4
95.0
95.7
95.1
94.9
94.8
95.7
96.0
97.5
99.9
101.1
103.7
107.8
111,4
116.2
122.6
139.0
179.4
183.8
194.9
206.6
224.6

25 5.9
287.9
309.6
310.3
315.9
320.4
317.5

25 8
290 . 3
310 .0
310 .7
315 . 9
320 . 7
3 1 8 .6

260.6
2 93.1
310.4
311.0
316.3
320.4
319.9

85,9
85.0
86.4
86.7
90.6
94.0
94.1
95.2
95.8
95.3
94.8
94.7
95.6
96.0
98.0
99.7
101.5
104.6
106.5
112.1
116.8
125.4
145.7
179.3
184.9
196.8
209.1
229.0
270.9
296.8
310.9
309.6
318.2
319.3

85.4
85.8
86.5
87.2
91.9
93.9
94.0
95.7
95.7
95.0
95.0
95.0
95.3
96.6
99.1
99.6
102.0
105.2
109.3
113,3
117.8
130.9
156.4
178.1
187.3
201.0
213.2
237 .7
276.5
306.2
309.6
309.7
320.8
319.3

85.5
86.6
86.4
88.6
92.1
94.4
94.3
95.7
95.6
94.7
95,0
95.3
95.3
97.1
100.1
100.0
102.5
105.9
110.3
115.1
118.6
133,3
170.8
179.7
190.7
202.9
217.1
247 ,9
283.4
309.0
310.3
313.5
320.4
317.5

85.1
86.4
86.4
89,7
93.2
94.3
94.7
95.7
95.3
94.7
94.8
95.6
95.9
97 .5
99.9
100.7
103.2
107.4
111.3
115.7
121.4
136.6
178.8
183.1
193.6
205.5
223.0
258.2
290.4
310.1
310.7
316.0
320.5
318.7

Oct.

85.6
86.4
86.3
89.2
92.6
94.4
94.4
95.6
95.6
94.7
95.0
95.3
95.4
97.2
100.1
100.2
102.7
106.3
110.6
115.4
119.4
133.4
173.5
180.6
192.1
203.9
218.6
251.7
285.2
309.6
310.4
315.2
320.0
317.2

CHANS E IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, INTERM EDIATE MATERIALS, SUPPLI ES, AND COMPONENTS
•

o!l
197 3 , ' ! !
1974...
1975 . . .
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

Sept.

i!s
1.8
-0.3
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.9
1 .9
0.5
-0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.4

-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.1

-0.2
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.4
-0.2
-0.3
0.1

0.4
0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.1

-0.2
0.7
0.2
0.8
-0.9
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.1

0.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
1 .1
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1

0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.9
0.3
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0

-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.5
-0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1

-0
-0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-0
0
-0

,4
.1
.3
.1
.1
.1
,1
.1
.2
2
1

-0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.0

-0.3
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0

0.0
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0

-0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.5
-0.1

0.0
0.2
0.4
-0.1
0 .1
-0.1
0.5

-0.1
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.4

-0.2
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.4

0.1
0,0
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4

0.0
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.2

0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3

0,4
0.1
-0.3
0 .1
0.2
0.6
0.5

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
3
1
4
2
5
.1

0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.1

-0.1
0,0
0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.5
0.2

-0*.l
0,3
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4

0.3
0.5

0.3
2.3

0.2
1 .8

0.3
-1.6

0.2
2.9

0.7
-1.3

0.7
1.0

0 8
0

1,3
2.1

0,3
1.3

0.2
0.3
0.9
0.5
1.6
0.4
1.2
- 0 .2
-0.3
0.2
0.2

-0.4
0.5
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.2

-0.1

0.4

0.9

0.3

1.0

0

0.0
0.6
1.1
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.1
-0.5

0.2
0.3
1.7
0.9
0,2
0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.2

0.5
0.8
1,6
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.6
-0.1
-0.1

0.2
1.1
1.7
0.9
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0

;2

u
2,8
-0.7
0.3
0.9
0.6
1.1
0,7
1.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.6
-0.1

0.4
0.7
1 .4
1.0
0.5
-0.1
0.4
-0.2
-0.1

4.5
1.7
-0.4
2.1
0.2
-0.4
1 .1
-0.8
-0.4
1.0
2.9
-0.6
3.0
4.1
3.8
2.9
3.9
13.8
27.7
1.4
4 .1
8.2
7.2
13.0
15.3
12.3
-0.2
= 1.2
2.7
-0.7

-3.2
1.9
0.7

-2,1
3.3
0.0

-2.1
4.5
0,2

-1.2
3.8

5.2

5.0

2.5

4.2

-0.6
2.8
-0.4
-0.6
0.8
0.8

-0.6
1.7
0.2
-0.6
0.2
1.3
-1.3
1.9

-0.2
1 .7
-0.2
«1.0
0.6
1.3
-1.0
1.9

0.6
1 .1
-0.4
-1.3
0.4
1 .3
-0.8
2.3

-0.2
2.2

0.0
2.4

0.6
1.6

3.6
4.4

1

7
9
9
8
1
1
0
\
3

0.4
0.6
0.9
1.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.4

0.3 ,
0.6
0.6
1.0
1.7
1.0
0.0
-0.2
0.4
-0.2

13.2
35.0
-1.8
6.7
7 .4
16.1
10.8
7.6
-0.7
1.5
2 .4
-1.6




oil

0I2

0.1
0,3
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3

0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.3
0.5
0,2

0.0
0.1
0,2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4

0.3
1.5

0.4
0.0

0.9
1.4
1.1

0.5
0.5
0.7
1.3
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0

0.6
0.4
0.6
1.6
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.1

0.5
0.4
0.9
1.2
0.9
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.3

-1.6
0.5

-0.9
-0.7

_! 4
-0 2

-0.7
0.0

-2.6
1.7

-1.0
3.6
0.0

-0.6
1.3
-0.3

-1.0
-0.3
0.7

3.3

3.3

0.9
0.6
-0.6
-1.5
0.2
1.5
0.0
2.3

1.1
0.4
-0.6
-1.7
-0.2
2.3
0.8
2.1
2 .2

2.6
1.1
1 .3
-0.2
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
0.8
1.1
2.3

0.9
1.9
-0.2
-1.5
0.2
-0.4
0.6
1.9
1 .2

0,2
1.7
0.0
-1.0
0.2
-0.8
0.8
1.7
1.7

-1
1
0
-0
0
-0
0
1
2

1
9
2
6
2
6
6
7
1

-0.8
1 .9
0.6
-0.4
0.4
«0 .8
0.2
1.5
2.3

1.4
-0.5
2 .2
0.0
-0.5
0.7
0.4
-0.8

0.9
0.4
1.1
-0.4
-1.3
0.4
1.4
-0.6

0.9
1 .4
0.0
-0,9
-0.7
-0.4
1.2
1.3

-0.6
1 .8
0 .3
-0.7
0.3
-0.7
0.5
1.6

2.4

3.0

3.7

4.7

2.5

2.0

2.5

4.2

3.7
4.4
6.1
8.9
30.8
5.7

3.3
3.0
11.4
19.6
10.3
5.9

4.6
9.4
18.0
10.3
2.5
0,7
4.1
-0.2
-0.4

6.2
11.3
19.4
11.2
1.3
-0.5
3.0
-0.7
-2.1

1 .2
2.0

2.2

42.4
0.6

35.0
2.6

35.9
4.3

6.5
7.7
17.1
9.0
7 .7

5^7
8.1

18.3

4.3
9.4
18.5
9.8
3.1
0.5
4.9
0.1
-1.1

-0.6

2.2
1.6

8.5
5.5
0.1
3.9
0.2

-1.0

-0.9

30.9
5.9
7.1
4.3
9.6
16.0
10.5
2.4
0.8
4.1
-0.1
-0.9

25.7
7.0

18.0
6.6

5.1
9.3
17.5
10.7
2.1
0.8
3.4
-0.6
0.9

5.8
10.9
19.3
11.6
2.4
-0.5
3.2
-0.3
0.4

'

i!o
2.2
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.7
1.2
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-0.2
0.9

4. 3
2
11
15.
7.
5.

8
6
5
3
5

3.1
14.0
25.3
5.6
5.5

3.6
3.7
16.3
31.0
-0.8

3.4
5.4
3.4
13.0
37.5
0.5

6.
11.
20.
10.
1.

2
3
5
3
0

6.5
11.8
18.3
11.7
0.4
-0.8
2.9
-0.9
-4.5

7.8
7.6
13.7
14.7
11.2
-0.3
-0.6
3.0
-0.8

6.3
7.7
17.2
9.4
6.9
-0.4
2.5
1.4
-1.2

3! 0
-0. 9
-2. 3

NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1981. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month
changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are
averages of the centered changes.

100

-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
2.6

8.6
18.2
32.5
= 1.9
5 ,3
6.9
8.1
14.6
14.3
9.9
~0 .4
0.1
3.2
-1.2

-0.3
0.0
0,0
0,2
0.3
0.0
0.2
0,0
-0,2
0.1
-0.1

0 .2
2.6

2.8
5.1

i!s
3.3
-0.8
2.4
4.1
3.6
3,4
4,0
17.0
32.9
-1.8
4*4
8.2
7.4
13.4
14.4
11.3
-0.3
-0.7
3.2
-0.4

85.5
66.0
86.5
88.1
92.0
94.1
94.3
95.6
95.6
95.0
94.9
95,2
95.5
96.8
99.2
100.0
102.3
105.8
109.9
114.1
118.7
131.6
162.9
180.0
189.1
201.5
215.6
243 .2
280.3
306.0
310.4
312,3
320.0
318.7

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-0.6
0.5
0.0
-0.1
0.8
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0,1

CHANCE IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX , INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS, SUPPLII S, AND COMPONENTS
OVER 6-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

-2.5
-0.2
0.2

Annual

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS, SUPPLIES, AND COMPONENTS
(1967-100)

-1.
1.
0,
4.
3.
0.
0.
0.
-0,
-0.
0.0
0.9
0.4
1.9
2.1
1.3
2.8
3.9
3.5
4.1
6.2
14.4
27,4
2.8
6.1
6.2
9.0
17.0
11.4
5.5
-0.1
2,3
0.9
-1.1
(JULY 1986)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.
333.

My
a

June

July

Sept.

Aug.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ
72.2
72.5
7 4.3
75.1
79.9
86.3
89.5
90.9
91.7
91.8
92.0
92.2
92.8
94.0
95.3
99.0
102.2
105.4
110.2
115.6
118.6
121.0
129.4
158.4
169.7
179.8
193.3
210.0
230.1
256.0
275.2
284.7
291 . 7
298.2

72.6
73.4
74.6
75.8
81.6
87.0
89.7
91.6
91.7
91.8
92.2
92.2
93.3
94.4
96.3
99.6
103.2
106.2
111.1
116.4
119.5
123.0
135.8
161.4
171.9
182.5
196.9
214.7
236.7
262.1
277.9
2 86.2
293.9
300.0

0*1
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.5

0.3
0.2
0.1
0 .2
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3

0.1
0.5
0.1
0 .4
0.7
0.2
0.1
0 .2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.3

0.3
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.8
0.7
0 .7
0.9

0.3
0 .4
1.1
1.0
0.6
0 .4
0 .5
0.8

r1

PRODD

71.8
72.4

72.4
72.4

72.5
72.7

72.5
73.0

72.6
73.3

72.7
73.9

72.8
74-2

72.5
74.1

72.5
74.2

72.3
74.2

72.3
73.9

72.3
74.0

1954..
1955.,
1956..
1957.,
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961,.
1962..
1963.,
1964,.
196 5 . .
1966..
196 7 . .
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1962..
1983..
1984..
1985..
1986..

75*0
79.4
85.9
89.4
90.7
91.6
91.8
92.0
92.2
92.6
93.9
95.0
96.8
101.9
105.1
109.8
115.3
116.1
120.2
128.1
157.0
168.8
178.9
192.2
208.3
228.2
253.7
275.2
284.1
291.0
296.8

75*1
79.9
86.3
89.5
90.8
91.7
91.7
92.0
92.2
92.7
94.0
95.4
99.1
102,2
105.4
110.2
115.7
118.7
121.1
129.2
158.3
169.6
179.8
193.2
210.1
230 .0
256.1
274.5
284.7
291.7
298.6

75*3
80,4
86.6
89.5
91.2
91.8
91.8
92.1
92.2
93.0
94.2
95.6
99.1
102.4
105.6
110.6
115.9
118.9
121.7
130.9
159.9
170.6
180.7
194.5
211.6
232.2
258.1
275.8
285.3
292.3
299.3

75.5
81.2
86.8
89.6
91.3
91.7
91.8
92.2
92.2
93.1
94.4
95.9
99.4
102.9
105.8
110.8
116.2
119.3
122.3
132.4
160.8
171.3
181.5
195.4
213.4
235.7
260.2
276.6
265.6
294.3
299.6

75.8
81.7
87.0
89.7
91.6
91.6
91.8
92.2
92.2
93.4
94.3
96.3
99.7
103.3
106.2
111.2
116.5
119.5
123,2
136.0
161.4
171.8
182.5
196.9
214.7
236.5
262.1
277.7
286.1
293.6
300.0

76.1
82.0
87.1
89.7
91.9
91.7
91.9
92,1
92.3
93.3
94.4
96.7
99.8
103.4
106.5
111.4
116.6
119.7
123.5
138.9
162.0
172.7
183.5
198.5
215.9
237.9
263 .9
279.3
286.8
2 93.8
300.4

76.4
82.1
87.7
89.7
91.8
91.8
91.8
92.3
92.3
93.5
94.5
97.0
99.9
103.7
107.0
111.9
117.1
119.9
123,7
141.8
163.1
173.5
184.5
199.9
217.5
240 .9
265.5
2 80.3
287.3
294.5
300.7

77.1
82.8
88.0
89.6
91.8
91 . 9
91.8
92.3
92.3
93.6
94.6
97.2
100.2
104.0
107.2
112.2
117.4
119.9
124.1
145.5
163.4
174.5
186.1
201 . 3
217.5
243.0
266.7
281.4
288.1
295.0
301.3

77.9
84.0
88.4
89.6
91.9
91.1
91.9
92.3
92.5
93.6
94.8
97.4
100.4
104.2
107.7
112.7
117.2
120.2
124.6
148.3
164.7
175.8
187.2
203.0
219.9
244.5
268.4
281.9
288.4
295.8
299.7

78*7
84.8
88.7
69.8
91.8
91 .7
92.0
92.2
92.6
93.6
94.6
97.8
100.9
104.5
108.1
114.0
116.9
119.6
124.9
151.5
165.6
176 . 4
189.0
203.3
221.4
248.2
270.7
282.5
289.0
295.0
302.7

78*6
85.5
89.0
90.2
91.5
91.6
91 . 9
92.2
92.6
93.6
94.8
98.3
101.2
104.7
108.9
114.6
116.9
119.8
125.5
153.7
166.8
177 . 2
190.4
205.3
223.1
249.6
272.3
2 83.3
289.4
295.9
303.4

79.0
85.6
89.3
90.5
91.5
91.6
91.9
92.3
92.8
93.5
94.9
98.6
101.6
104.7
109.4
114.9
117.7
120.2
126.6
155.1
167.7
178. 7
191 .7
206.7
225.1
250.6
274.2
284.9
290.2
295.6
303.8

CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, CAPITAL EQUIPMENT, OVER 1-MONTH SPANS1
(PERCENT)

1.0
0 .2

0.2
0.2
0.5
2.0
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.4

0.1

0.4

0.1

-0.1

0.6
0.3
2*2

2.5
3.1
1.4

6 .3

7.4

3.6
-0.2
1.5
0.4
-0.2
1.1
1.3
1.7
3.5
4.0
2.7
5.5
5.8
2.9
2.5
10 . 4
16.3
7.3
5.7
8.0
8.7
11.5
11.4
5.6
2.4
2.7
2.4
3.1

1.5
3.2
0 .1
0.4
0.5
0 .0
1 .3
1 .7
3 .3
2.9
3 .9
3 .0
4.4
3.4
4.0
5.3
16.7
10.7
6 .4
5.8
7.0
9.6
12.5
10 . 4
4.1
1.8
3.0
3.1

1 .0
4 .7
0.8
5.4
7 .8
4.1
0.4
2.0
-0.2
0.1
0.6
0 .4
1 .8
1 .3
4.0
2.3
3 .6
3 .7
3 .8
2 .8
2 .4
5 .2
25.9
6.8
5 .9
6.9
8.6
8.1
11.3
8.7
4.4
2.3
2.4
1.6

-0.8
1 .7
0.2
8.0
9 .2
4.7
1.1
0.0
-0.1
0 .2
0 .1
1 .0
0 .6
0.9
4.1
3.2
2 .8
5 .0
6 .2
1 .3
0.6
4.4
27.8
6.7
6 .5
8.8
8.4
8.1
11.1
8.0
4.2
2.4
1.1
2.2

-0.3
0 .3
1.5
7.3
8.1
3.3
2.8
-0.3
0.4
0 .4
- 0 .2
0 .9
1 .0
1.5
3 .7
4.0
2 .7
5 .5
6 .1
2 .3
1.7
8 .7
19.1
7 .4
6 .1
8.1
8.7
11.1
11.1
6.3
2.5
2.6
2.2
2.1

0.1
0.8
0.0

0.1
0.4
0.1

-0.1
-0.3

0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0

-0.4
0.0

0.1
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.0
1.2
1.2
0.7

0.6
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0,1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0,1
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0,5
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.5

0.6
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.5
1.3
1.0
0.6

1.0
0.2
0.1
Q. 1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.2

0.6
0.2
0.1
0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4

0.4
0.1
0.0
0.3
0 .1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3

0.4
0.1
0.7
0.0
-0.1
0,1
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.5

0.9
0.9
0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2

1.0
1.4
0.5
0.0
0.1
-0.9
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5

1.0
1.0
0.3
0.2
-0.1
0.7
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.4

—0 .1
0.8
0.3
0.4
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1

0.3
0.5
1.1
0.6
0.4

0.7
2.7
0 .4
0,3

0.2
2.1
0.4
0.5

0 .2
2 .1
0 .7
0.5

0.3
2 .6
0 .2
0.6

0.3
0.4
1.9
0.8
0.7

-0.5
0.2
2.2
0.5
0.3

0.2
0.5
1.5
0.7
0.5

0.1
0.3
0.8
1.4
1.2
0.4
-0.3
0.3
0.4

0.5
0.9
0.8
0.9
-0.3
0.2
0.2
0.6

0.7
0.7
1.0

0.5
0.9
1.5

0.8
0.6
0.3

0.6
0 .6
0.6

0[7

0;7
0 .0

o!s

0 .7

1.1

0.1
0.7

1.0
0.8

0 .5
0.2
0 .2
0.2

0.3
0.1
0.7
0.1

0.4
0.2
-0.2
0.1

0.6
0.2
0.1
0.1

0.4
0.2

0.4
0 .3

0.6
0.2
0.1

0.9
0.2
0.2

0.6
0.3
0.1

0.7
0.6

0 .1

0 .2

-0.5

1.0

0.2

1977 . . .
1978...
1979...
1980 . . .
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

333C.

CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICE IND EX, CAPITAL EQUIPMENT,
NNUAL RATE, PERCENT;

o.o
0.0

o.o
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.7

2.2

2 .5

2 .8

2.8

0.3

0.0

-0.6

-0.8

-1.1

-1.1

-0.3

19 53 . .
1954..
1955..

0.8
2.7

1.9

1.6

1.4

0.5

0.5

o'o

-0*3

O.*8

0*8

1*6

6.9

7.4

9.2

1957*.!
1958..
1959. .
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966 . .
1967..
1968..
196 9 . .
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976 . .
1977 . .
1978..
1979, .
1980 . .
1981 . .
1982 . .
1983 . .
1984,.
1985..
1986..

2,0
3.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.0
1.1
1.7
2.8
3.3
4.0
2.5
5.1
3.9
4.1
4.6
12.4
12.7
7 .C
5.9
6 .9
10 . 2
13.3
9.9
4.4
2.2
3.7
3.1

1.1
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.9
1.1
0 .4
4.0
3.0
3.1
4.4
5.9
1.2
0.5

1.1
-0.2
0.0
0 .2
0.0
0.9
0.4
1.1
4.2
3.0
2.7
5.1
6.2
0.7
0.5

2.2
-0.4
0.0
0.4
- 0 .2
0 .7
0.9
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.7
5.3
6 .2
1.7
0.5
7.2
22.6
7.1
6 ,3
8.5
8.6
10.1
10.9
7.4
2.7
2.6
1.6
1.7

2.7
-0.2
-0.4
0.4
-0.2
0.9
0.9
1.7
3.9
4.0
2.7
5.7
6.3
2.2
2.0
8.4
18.4
7.7
6 .2
7^8
8.9
11.8
11.1
5.9
2.4
2.5
2.5
1.6

1.6
3 .1
0.2
0.4
0 .7
0 .0
1.7
1.5
3.2
2.9
4.2
2.9
4.3
3.3
5.8
17.4
10.3
6.1
6.1
6.9
9.4
12.4
10.3
4.0
2.0
2.9
2 .8

0.9
3.1
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.0
1.1
1.9
3 .8
2 .4
3.6
3 .5
3.7
3.0

2.4
0.4
0.0
0.7
0.2
2.0
1.3
4.3
2.2
3.6
3.6
3.9
3.1

2.2
0.4
0.2
0.7
0.2
2.0
1.3
3.8
2.2
3.6
3.4
3.7
3.0

1 .5
-1.5
0.2
0.4
0.7
1.3
1.3
3.8
2.6
3.5
4.0
3.8
2.3

20.4
9.1

22.5
7.9

26.8
6.5

28.4
6.1

30.9
6.1

27 .7
6 .8

1.8
-0.9
-0.2
0.0
0.4
1.1
0.4
1.1
4.0
3.6
2.5
5.5
6.4
1.9
0.8
5.1
24.7
7.2

6.1
5.4
7.2
9.1
11.7
10.9
3.8
1.3
2.5
3 .3

6.4
8.2
9.0
11.4
9.5
3.7
2.3
2.4
2.6

7 .1
8.6
7.2
11.6
8.4
5.1
2.4
2.3
1.8

7 .3
8.9
8.0
10.9
8.1
4.5
2 .2
2.4
0.3

8.4
8.2
7.6
10.9
8.2
4.3
2.4
0.5
2 .1

8.8
8.7
8.0
11.4
7.9
4.1
2.3
1.6
2 .3

9.1
8.4
8.7
11.0
8.0
4.1
2.4
1.2
2.3

NOTE: Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes
-e placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
'This series contains revisions beginning with 1981. 2This series contains revisions beginning with 1980.




Annual
72.4
73.6
74.5
76.*7
82.4
87.5
89.8
91,5
91.7
91.8
92.2
92.4
93.3
94.4
96.8
100.0
103.5
106.9
112.0
116.6
119.5
123.5
141 .0
162.5
173.4
184.6
199.2
216.5
239.8
26*.3
279.4
287.2
294.1
300.5

0.1
0.5

0.0
0.2
0.1
0 .4
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0,0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2
0,2
0.4
1.7
0.6
0.5
0 ,6
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.3
0.2
0 .2
0.2

0.6
2 .4
1.0
6.0
8.1
4.0
1 .4
1.2
0.0
0 .3
0 .3
0.6
1 .2
1 .3
3 .8
3.1
3 .2
4.3
5 .1
2 .4
2.2
5 .9
22.4
7.9
6 .2
7.4
8.2
9 .2
11.5
8.3
3.8
2.3
2.2
2.2

OVER 6-MONTH SPANS2

1952...

8.0

72,3
74.0
74.6
78.8
85.3
89.0
90.2
91.6
91.6
91 . 9
92.2
92.7
93.6
94.8
98.2
101.2
104.6
108.8
114.5
117.2
119.9
125.7
153.4
166,7
177.4
190.4
205.1
223.2
249.5
272.4
283.6
289.5
295.5
303.3

-0,1
-0.1
0.2
0 .5
0.6
0.3
0.3
-0.1
0.2
0,0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.5
1.5
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.8
0 .7
0.4
0.2
0 .0
0.4

0.1
0.4
0.1

1955 . . .
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
196 9 . . .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...

72.6
74.2
7 4.6
7 7.1
83.0
88.0
89.6
91.8
91.6
91.8
92.3
92.4
93.6
94.6
97.2
100.2
104.0
107.3
112.3
117.2
120.0
124.1
145.2
163 .7
174.6
185.9
201.4
218.3
242.8
266.9
281.2
287.9
295.1
300.6

-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0 .8
0.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
2.2
0.6
0.6
0 .7
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.3

oa

0.0
0,4
0.3

0.8
0.0

0.1
0.1
0.3

IV Q

AVE RAGE FOR PERIOD

0.1
0.4
0.0

1952...
1953...
1954...

III Q

AVE 1AGE FOR PERIOD

(1967-100)
1952...
1953..

333C.

II Q

(JULY 1986)

101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar
334.

1952...
1953...
1954..
1955..
1956,.
1957..
1958..
1959..
1960. .
1961 . .
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
196?..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977. .
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1982. .
1983. .
1984..
1985..
1986..

91.2
69.3
89.5
88.8
88.4
91.3
94.1
93.9
93.3
95.0
94.8
94.4
94.7
94.5
98.2
99.5
100.9
104.4
109.6
111.1
114.4
120.8
139.4
159.5
168.4
174.4
186.6
206.1
235.7
262.2
278,0
283.1
288.6
290.5
334C.

1952...
1953 . . .
1954...
19S5 . . .
1956. ..
1957...
1958. . .
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965 . . ,
1966...
1967...
1968...
196 9 . . .
1970...
1971.. ,

i9?siii
1974...
197 5 . . .
1976...
19??.. ,
1978...
1979...
H80...
1981...
1982...
1983 . . .
1984...
1985...
1986.. .

1968ii.

1969...
1970...
1971 . . .
1972...
1973...
1974...
197 5 . . .
1976...
1977 . . .
1978.. .
1979. ..
1980...
1981 .. .
1982...
1983.. .
1984...
1965...
1986...

91.3
89.0
89.0
88.6
89.1
91.6
95.2
93.6
94.2
94.9
94.6
93.6
94.1
94.9
99.3
99.0
101.8
104.8
109.5
111.6
114.8
125.5
143.7
158.6
167.6
176.2
189.1
210.3
242.0
267.9
277.4
282.5
290.7
289.9

My
a

June

91.0
68.7
89.5
88.8
89.0
91.8
94.6
93.9
94.4
94.4
94.3
93.7
94.1
95.6
99.4
99.3
102.2
105.3
109.6
112.4
114.9
126,4
144.6
160.0
168.7
179,0
191,7
212.4
243.7
270.9
278.0
2 82.8
2 90.8
291.9

90.6
66.9
69.6
88.3
89.8
91.9
94.9
93.7
94.3
93.9
94.3
94,2
94.0
95.9
99.0
99.4
102.3
106.2
109.3
112.8
115.6
127.3
146.2
161.1
168.6
180.3
192.8
213.4
244.6
271.4
277.7
283.8
290.7
292.6

90 .6
89 . 0
89 .1
88 . 9
90 . 2
92 ,3
94 . 7
93 ,7
94 . 4
93 . 8
94 .0
94 . 4
94 , 2
96 . 3
98 .5
100 . 2
102 .6
106 . 8
109 .6
113 . 2
116 . 2
1 2 8 .9
145 .5
162 .5
169 .0
180 . 4
194 .8
214 . 8
246 .9
272 .5
280 . 2
264 .7
290 .5
291 .6

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

90.3
89.3
66.5
88.2
90.6
93.0
94.1
93.3
95.3
93.9
94.7
94.2
94.5
96.9
100.3
100.6
103.9
108.1
110.5
113.6
117.6
133.2
156.2
168.2
171,2
183.5
199.6
226.6
256.6
274.7
2 83.8
286.6
290.0
292.1

90.0
88.9
88.7
86.4
91.0
93.4
94.0
92.9
95.5
94.0
94.8
94.3
94.4
97.3
100.0
100.8
104.0
109.0
110.9
114.0
118.4
134.5
159.4
168.8
172.5
185.0
201.0
229.6
258.4
275.4
285.1
285.5
290.8
294.5

IQ

II Q

91 . 0
89 . 2
89 . 3
88 .0
89 .9
92 .6
94 .5
93 . 4
94 .7
94 .0
94 . 0
94 . 4
94 . 3
96 . 2
96 .9
100 . 1
102 ,9
106 .9
109 .7
112 .6
116 . 8
128 . 4
149 . 4
164 .1
169 . 3
181 ,1
196 . 3
217 . 2
251 , 2
272 .9
281 . 4
2 8 4 .6
291 .0
292 .5

90.9
89.1
89.2
86.2
69.8
92.8
94.3
93.1
94.6
94.3
94.6
94.2
94.3
96.4
100.2
100,4
103.0
107.1
109.5
113.4
117.3
134.0
152.0
165.7
169.6
162.1
196.4
219.9
254.2
272.9
282.6
285.5
2 90.3
291.2

89.1
89.0
88.6
88.5
91.2
93.6
94.0
93.2
95.2
94.4
94,5
94.1
94.3
98.1
99.7
101.0
104,1
109.1
110.7
114.8
119.6
135.6
159.1
168,9
173.8
185.6
203.6
232.0
259.5
276.5
286.0
286.4
291.1
296.7

91.2
89.1
89.2
88.8
68.7
91.5
94.5
93.8
93.6
95.1
94.8
94.1
94.3
94.6
98.8
99.3
101.4
104.5
109.5
111.5
114.7
122.9
141.9
159.0
167.9
176.4
187.9
208.3
239.0
26 4 . 8
277.8
282.9
289.5
290.1

90.8
86.9
69.4
88.7
89.7
92.0
94.7
93,8
94.4
94.0
94.2
94.1
94.1
95.9
99.0
99.6
102.4
106.1
109.5
112.6
115.6
127.5
145.5
161.2
168.8
179,9
193.1
213.5
245.1
271.6
278.6
283,8
290.7
292,0

- 0 ,2

0.0
- 0 .2
-0.6

0.1
-0 • 1
0.0

-0.3
-0.3

-0.1
0.1
0 .3
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.4
-0.1
0.6
0 .2
0.1
-0.2
-0.1

0.2
0.4
0 .0
-0.1
0.0
0.4
0.1
-0.2
-0.7

0.6
-0.1

-0.1
0.2

).9
).l

-0.2
1.0
-0.5
-0.3
-0.6
0.1

0.3
0.2
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
0.0

-0;2
-0.1
-0.5
0.0
() . 5
-0.1

0
0
-0
-0
0
0

0.6
-0.2
0.6

0.3
-0.3
0.3

0.1
0.3
0.4

-0.4
0.1
0.1

- 0 .5
0 .8
0 .3

0 ,3
0.5
0 .4
-0.3
1.0
2.8
0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.5
1.2
1.6
1.0
0.5

-0.2
0 .5
0.4
1 .2
2.2
-0.3
-0.5
1.2
0.8
1.2
1 .5
0.8
0.0

0.1

0.1

-0.3

-0.1
2.6
0.6
-0.3
0.0
1.0
0,5
0.9
1 .1
1 .3
-0.2

0.1
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.4
1.4
1.0
0.7
1.1
0.2

).6
() . 7
.0
0.7
- ( .1
.7
).6
).5
.4
).2
- 1 ) .1

0!8
=0.2

0 ; 2
"0 . 2

-0.2
0.5
0.0

0.1
0.0
0.7

(
.4
(
.0
C .2

0 3
4
0 5
1 3
-0 5
0 9
0 2
0 1
1 0
0 7
0 9
0 4
0 9
0 3
-0 1
-0 3

-0.2
).l

-0.3

-1.0

-0.2

-0.2

0.0

-0.5

-0.2

0.0
0 .0
0.3
0.4
- 0 .1
-0.4
0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.0
-0.1

0 .2

-0.1

-0.7

-0.1

0.2

-0.1

0.0

0 .4
0 .4

- 0 .3
0 .3

-0.1
0.2

0.7
-0,2

0.2
0.4

0.4
0.4

3
3
2
0
0
.1

-0.3
-0.1
0.3
0.6
-0.2
0.0

1,2
0.0
-0.3
1.0
-0.1
0.2

-1.0
0.7
-0.1
-0.8
0.1
0.0

-0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1

0.2
0,4
0 ,0
0.3
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1

0.0
0.2
0.1
0 .5
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.1
-0.3
0.0

0.0
0.1
0.4
0.2
- 0 ,2
0.0
0.1
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.0

.1
0 .4
- 0 .1
0 .3

1.3
0.3
0.1

0.3
0.3
0.7

-0.2
-0.1
0.2

-0.3
0.2
0.1

-0.3
0.2
0.1

0.4
-0.2
0.3

_ 0.3
a.4
9.3

-0.2
0.7
0.4
4.4
1.7
1.0
0.2
0.6
0 .1
1 .2
1.2
0.0
0.4
0 .3
-0.2
-0.4

1 .1
-0.2
0.7
-0.4
0.9
0.7
0.2
0.3
1.0
1 .9
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.5

-0.2
0.4
-0.4
-0.2
1.8
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.7
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.3
0•1
0.0
0.9

0
1
1
3
2
.2

-0
0
0
0
0
0

-2.6
-0.2
0 .2
0.7

-0.4
-0.2
-0 .4

3.5
-0.4
2.4
-1.9
0.9
-2.1
-0.2
2.3
5.2

3.2
-0.6
3.0
-3.3
0.6
-1.3
-0.6
3.2

1.9
-0.6
2.6
-2.9
-0.8
-0.2
0.2
4.3

0.9
-1.1
3.0
-2.1
-1.7
0.0
-0.8
3.6

Z.Z
2.7
2.6
3 .5
2.3
15.5
18.2
4.9

3.0
4.3
0.6

5 13

4.0
4.8
0.2

9.3
13.2
15.7
11.5
2.4
-0.7
3.0
1.3

0
-0
0
-0
2
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1 0
0

1
5
5
4
7
0
2
4
8
1
7
1
4
0
2
3

15.6
18.2
2 .1
-0.2
9 .2
8.6
12.7
13.3
10.3
1.7
-0.9
3.7
1.2

0,9
16.2
15.1
4.3
0.1
7.7
10 12
11.3
13.3
10.3
2.7
-0.9
2.9
0.3

-0.7
( .0
.8

13.0
14.9

-1
1
-0
-0

7
6
g
5

C. 4
.5
.8
.3
-C .6
C .0
c .6
A .1

1
0
-1
1
1
0
3

7
3
9
9
9
1
9
4
4

-]
-;

3 .0
5 .4
0 .2
20 .0
l: .8

3 8
5 0
2, 2
13. 2
14 0

i :*
7•8

n3i. l
1 6
8.3
2.5
1.1
1.7
1.4

2i 9

io

ioi 0

<
11 , 2
12 . 8
6 .5
3 ,4
1 .8
0 .7
0 .6

ni 6
1

11.
4,
4.
2.
-0.
-0.

7
0
6
5
2

Si?

1

102

oio

-ois

0.4
0.5
1 .2
0.4
0.8
0.5
0.9
1.2
0.6
0.3
0.4
0 .0
0.1
0.8

-0.2
0.7
1.0
0.8
-0.2
0.1
0.8
0.3
1.3
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.3

0.0
1.6
1.9
- 0 .1
-0.3
0.8
0.6
1.1
1.4
1.0
0.1

0.4
0.9
0.4
0.8
0.3
0.4
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.3

0.5
1.2
1.6
0.9
0.2
0.4
0.6
1.4
1.1
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.6

0.1
0.7

0.5
-0.1

0.0
0.2

0.0
-0.2

0 .1
0.1

oio

-0 .2
0 .0
0
0 •0
0 .2
0 .2
.0
- 0 .1
0 .2
-0 1
0 0
0 0
0 .0
0 .1
0 1
0 3
0 1
0 3
0 3
1 1
1 3
0 5
0 2
0 5
0 8
1 1
0 9
0 5
0 3
0 0
0 1
0 2

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-1.8
0.0

-3.3
0.0

-3.7
0.7

-3.9
-0.2

-3.3
-1.6

-2.0
-2.0

-0.9
0.5

-2.2
0.5

-3.6
-0.4

-1 3

0.2

-0.9

0.9

0.9

1.6

t .4
J.O
1.5

1
3
9
1
9
1
9

-1.9
- 1 .7
2 .6
0.2
1 .1
0.2
0,9

-1.5
-1.1
1.7
1.3
1.1
-0.6
0.2

-1.3
-0.2
0.6
1.7
0.9
0.6
0.4

8

2.0

2.5

1.2

- 1 .1
0.4
1.7
1.3
-0.8
-0.4
0.4
5.5
-1.8

-1.7
0.0
0.6
1.3
-3.9
0.0
0.8
5.9
-3,0

0.2
3.0
2,4
2.9
-0.5
2.7
- 2 .7
0.2
-1.2
-0.2
3.3
3.2

_ .4
1.2
-2.1
-0.1
0.4
0.2
3.7
2.1

-0.7
2.6
3.1
-1.5
-1.4
2.1
0.1
1.0
0.2
0,7
3.1
2.1

1.1
3.4
3.9
-1.4
0.1
1.0
1.4
-1.3
0.1
0.5
5.2
-1,2

3 4
5 4
1,
2

5.3

4.4

5.1

4.3

3,9

4.1

5.1

5,0

4.4

2,1
17.9
14.0

13.1
9.4

15.9
6.9

15,8
17,2

15.4
14.2
6.4
2.1
6.4
9.9
12.0
12.5
6.5
3.3
1.8
0.6
0.7

11.1
16.3
9 .4
4.5
5 .4
8.8
15.5
11.0
2.9
4.6
1.7
0.0
1.6

13.6
10.1
2 ,9
6.1
6 .7
11.8
17.6
9.1
3.3
0.4
2,9
-0.2
-1.7

0
4

90 .7
89 . 2
89 .1
68 .5
89 . 8
92 . 4
94 , 4
93 . 6
94 .5
94 . 3
94 .6
94 .1
94 .3
96 . 1
99 . 4
100 . 0
102 ,7
106 .6
109 .9
112 .9
116 .6
129 . 2
149 , 3
163 .6
169 .7
180 .7
1 9 4 .9
217 . 9
248 . 9
271 . 3
281 .0
284 .6
2 90 . 4
291 . 9

Q

0.7
0.2
0.4
0*2

0.4
0 .4
0.7
1.0
2.0
0.4
0.8
0.8
0.7
1.4
0.7
0.3
0.5

11.
16
10
3.

11.6
18.9
9.6
4.7

10.7
19.6

5
0

5.8

6.1

6.3

9.9

0.2

6.
13.
10.
2.
4.
2.
-0.
0.

4
8
9
8
2
7
5
1

8.7
16.0
11.6
3.0
5.4
1.2
0.1
1.3

9.2
16.7
10.5
3.0
4.2
1.2
0.4
3.5

10.2
17.6
6.9
3.8
1.2
2.8
-0.3
1.1

12.7
18.4
8.2
3.7
0.3
2.7
-0.2
-2.3

7 ,1
12,5
16,6
10.3
2.4
-0.3
3.2
-0.1
-3.8

8,7
9.3
12.4
14.1
10.7
2.3
-0.8
3.2
0.9

NGU: Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes
are 1placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
1
This series contains revisions beginning with 1981. 2 Th1s series contains revisions beginning with 1980.




-0.2
0.1
0.1
- 0 .1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.5
-0.1
0.1

-1 5
1 4

_1
1
-1
0
1
0
2
1

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-0.2

CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICE INDI X, FINISHED CONSUMER GOODS, OVER 6-MONTH 9PAHS2
(ANNUAL RAT E, PERCE NT)
= 2.0
-2.4
1 .6
-0.9

89.8
89.1
86.6
88.4
90.9
93.4
94.0
93.1
95.3
94.1
94.7
94.2
94.4
97.4
100.0
100.8
104.0
108.7
110.7
114,1
118.5
134.4
138.2
168.6
172.5
164.7
201.4
229.5
258.2
275.5
265.0
286.2
290.6
294.4

-0.4

PI

= 1.3
-3.5
0 .4
0.7

90.8
69.3
89.0
68.2
90.0
92.7
94.4
93.6
94.6
94.1
94.7
94.2
94.4
96.4
99.9
100.4
103.2
107.1
110.0
113,1
117.4
132.0
151.6
165.3
169.6
162.0
197.0
220.4
253.5
273.3
282.3
285.4
290.4
291.1

-0.1

!e

-0

IV Q

Q

Q

0 Ie

0 .4

III Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

90,5
89.7
88.6
88.4
90.4
92.6
94.4
94.2
94.6
94.0
95.5
94.1
94.5
96.5
100.5
100.7
103.7
107.4
110.7
113.2
118.1
133.5
153.4
166.8
170.0
182.7
196.3
224.1
255.1
274.1
282.9
286.2
290.0
289.6

CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED CONSUMER GOODS, OVER 1-MONTH SPANS1
(PERCENT)

-0.7
0 .2
0.6

334C.
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957. ..
19S8...
1959. ..
1960...
1961 .. .
1962.,.
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966.. .
1967,.

91.2
89.1
89.0
89.0
88.6
91.7
94.1
93.6
93,3
95.4
94.9
94.2
94.0
94.5
99.0
99.3
101.5
104.3
109.4
H I .6
114.9
122.3
142.5
159.0
167.6
176.5
188.1
208.5
239.3
264.4
277.9
2 83.0
289.3
290.0

Apr.

1
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED CONSUMER GOODS
(1967-100)

-2 2
-0 4
-0 5
-0 2
3 0
3 0
0 0
-0 6
2 0
-0 8
0 0
-0 1
0 3
3 8
1 5
1 5
3
4 7
8
1 Q
31
si 5
U. 5
13 0
6 1
3 7
6. 8
9. 9
14. 4
11. 7
3. 9
2. 6
1. 4
0. 9
0. 4

(OULY 1986)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Mar;

Feb.
335.

Apr.

My
a

June

1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...

84.9
84.0
85.1
85.6
89.5
93.0
93,7
94,7
95.7
95.2
95.0
94.7
95.3
95,9
97.4
99.5
101.5
104.3
108.3
112.2
115,9
120.0
135,3
167.5
177.4
188.4

84.9
84.0
84.9
86.0
89.6
93.2
93.4
94.9
95.6
95.2
94.8
94.6
95.2
95.9
97.6
99.7
102.0
104.9
108.6
112.5
116.5
121.3
138.2
168.4
178.1
190.0

84.6
84.3
84.9
85.9
89.9
93.1
93.4
95.2
95.6
95.2
94.8
94.6
95.1
96.0
97.8
99.7
102.2
105.4
108.8
113.0
116.8
122.8
142.4
168.9
179.0
191.7

84.2
84.1
85.0
86.0
90.3
93.1
93.2
95.3
95.6
95.1
94.9
94.4
95.1
96.0
98.1
99.6
102.4
105.5
109.3

83.9
84.4
85.0
85.8
90.4
93.0
93.1
95.4
95.2
94.8
94.9
94.5
95.1
96.2
98.5
99.7
102.3
105.5
109.6

83.6
84.7
84.9
85.9
90.3
93.0
93.1
95.2
95.2
94.6
94.7
94,7
94.9
96.4
98.7
99.7
102.4
105.6
109.9

117.3
124.2
146.6
169,7
180.1
193.3

117.6
125.3
150.5
170.3
180.5
194.2

117.9
126.0
153.6
170.7
181.5
194.7

1979*.!!
1980 . . .

22o!o

222!5

225 .*4

295.7
311.6

299.6
311 .0

319.1
322.9

320.6
322.2

321.9
322.5

229.0
271.3
303.5
309.9
312.4
322.6
323.8

23K6

291.5
311.8

1982*.!!
1983 ..
1984!!!
1985...
1986...

335C.

July

304.7
309.6
313 6
325.3

III Q

Sept.

Aug.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

II Q

84.8
84.1
85.0
85.8
89.7
93.1
93.5
94.9
95.6
95.2
94.9
94.6
95.2
95.9
97.6
99.6
101.9
104.9
108.6
112.6
116.4
121.4
138.6
168.3
178.2
190.0

83.9
84.4
85.0
85,9
90.3
93.0
93.1
95.3
95.3
94.8
94.8
94.5
95.0
96.2
98.4
99.7
102.4
105 . 5
109.6
113.7
117.6
125.2
150.2
170.2
180.7
194.1

222.6
265,0

23K5
272.2

311.5
313.8
320.5
322.5

310.0
313.8
323.2
324.6

-0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0 .0

0.2
0.2
0.0
0.8
0.4
0.2

0.0
- 0 .1
-0.2
0 .0
0.0
- 0 .1
0.1
0.3
0 .0
0.1

0.1
-0.1
0.0
0 .0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0 .1

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES
( 1 9 6 7 = 100)
83.9
85.3
84.9
87.3
91,0
93.6
93.7
95.4
95,2
94.6
94.6
94,8
95.1
96.6
99.0
100.0
102.5
106,1
110.2
115.3
118.5
126.7
161.6
172,2
183.8
196.9

84.1
85.2
84.9
88.1
91.4
93.6
93.8
95.4
95.0
94.7
94.8
94.7
95.1
96.6
99.0
100.2
102.8
106.5
110.4
115.1
118.7
127 . 4
162.9
173.1
184.8
197.8

83.9
85.1
85.0
88.4
91.8
93.5
93.9
95.4
95.1
94.5
94.7
94.9
95.5
96.7
99.1
100.5
103.3
107.1
111.2
115.1
118.8
128.5
164.8
174.7
186.3
199.1

83 . 8
85.0
85.3
88.7
92.3
93.5
94.2
95.5
95.0
94.7
94.7
94,9
95.6
97.1
99.2
100.8
103 . 4
107.4

83.9
85.1
85.3
89.0
92.7
93.7
94.5
95.6
95.0
94.9
94.7
95.2
95.8
97.1
99.2
101.1
103.8
107.8

115.0
119.1
130.1
165 . 8
175.4
187.1
199.3

115.5
119.4
132.2
166.1
176.1
187.4
200.0

234.0
2 7 3 .5
305.1
310.6

237.5

240.6

244.2

249.0

250.6

217.2
253.1

306^2
312.8

307*2
313^

307.4
312.7

309!o
314.3

309.3
315.0

323!s
3 24.8

3 2 3

!9
324.4

323*3
323.7

322

!2
322.3

318.5
323.4
3 24.2

323*8
324.7

3lo!o
315.2
23!o
32s!l
3

CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES, OVER 1-MONTH SPANE
(PERCENT)

83.8
85.3
84.9
87.3
90,9
93.5
93.6
95.4
95.1
94.6
94.7
94.8
95.1
96.5
99.0
100.0
102.6
106.1
110.2
115.0
118.4
126.7
160.8
172.2
183.8
196.9

83.9
85.1
85.2
88.7
92.3
93.6
94.2
95.5
95.0
94.7
94.7
95.0
95.6
97.0
99.2
100.8
103.5
107.4
111.4
115.2
119.1
130.3
165.6
175.4
186.9
199.5

84.1
84.8
85.0
86.9
90.8
93.3
93.6
95.3
95.3
94.8
94.8
94.7
95.2
96.4
98.5
100.0
102.5
106.0
110.0
114.1
117,9
125.9
153.8
171.5
182.4
195.1

277.7
306^
312.9
317.0
323.1
323.5

284 . 0

274.8
304!l
312.3

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.5
0.1

-0.4
0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.3

-0.5
-0.2
0.1
0.1
0.4

-0.4
0.4
0.0
-0.2
0.1

-0.4
0.4
-0.1
0.1
-0.1

-0.1
0.7
0.0
0.7
-0.1

0.5
0,0
0.0
0.9
0.9

0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.9
0.4

-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.4

-0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.3
0.5

0.1
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.4

195s!!!
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...

o!o

_0'3
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.1

o!o
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

_0'2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
-0.2

-o!i

0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0

0.1
-0.4
-0.3
0.0
0.1

0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.2

0 .2
0.2
0.0
0 .0
0.1
0.1

0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0

0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.1

0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.2

0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0 .0
0.0

0.3
0.1
0.0
0.2
0 .0
0.3

-0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.3
0.3
0 .1
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.3
0.3
0.4

0.0
0.2
0.2
0.5

0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2

0.0
0.3
-0.1
0.2

0.2
0.0
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5

0.4
0.1
0.3
0 .1

0.0
0.0
0.3
0 .1

0.1
0.2
0.2
0.4

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.2

0.7

0.1

0 .'

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.3
0.5
2.3
0.8

o!s
l!l
2.1
0.5

0.3
1,2
3.0
0.3

0.8

0.6

0,6

1.0

O.*l
0.9
1.2
0.9
0.8
0.7
1.0

0.3
1 .2
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.6

0.".
1.(
0 .
0 .i
o.:
0.4
0.6

0.4
0.9
2.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.7

0.3
0.9
2.6
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.7

0.2
0.4
2.0
0.5
0.6
0.5
0,6

3.0
1.7
0.6
-0.4
0.2
0.0

2.0
1.4
-0.1
0.0
0.5
-0.2

i!o

i!o

o!&

l!3
-0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.1

1.3
-0.4
-0.4
0.2
0.4

CK6
0,3
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.2

0.5

0.2
0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.3

0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0 •1
0.3

0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0 .1
0.2

0.4
1.1
2.9
0.5

0.3
0.9
2.7
0.4

0.3
0 .6
2 .1
0.2

o!2
0 .1
2.7
0.3
0.7

2.4
0.6
0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.2
0.6
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5

0.2
0.4
-0.1
0.4
0.2
0.5

0,6
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.2
-0.2

1.0
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.0
-0.1

0.7
0.3
0.1
0.3
-0.2
-0.2

0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4

1.1
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.6

0.5
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2

1.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0 .2
0.1

1.2
2.0
1.5
0.1
-0.2
0.4
0.0

0 .6
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.1
0*3

o!s

ITIES,

335C.

•

-2.1
0,5
-0.2

- 2 .6
1.4
0.0

-3.5
1.9
-0.5

-3.3
3.1
-0.5

^-2.3
3.1
0.0

4.3
2.9
-0.6
3.0
0.4
0.0
0.8
-0.6
0.4
1.0

3.9
1.5
-0.9
2.6
- 0 .6
-0.4
0.4
-0.4
0.4
1.3

2.9
0.6
-1.3
1 .5
-0.8
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
-0.6
1.3

1.6
0.9
-0.9
1.5
-1.0
-1.3
-0.4
0.2
-0.4
1.0

3.1
0.9
0.6
1.1
-0.8
-1.3
-0.4
0.4
-0.2
1.5

1.0
3.8
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.9
9.3
30.2
6.0

1.0
3.0
4.1
4.1
4.5
4.6
10.7
33.8
5.5

1.0
2.6
3.5
3.9
4.2
4.2
11.4
35.0
5.6

0.4
1.8

0.6
1 .0

1.0
1.2

3.4
4.3
3.8
10.4
36.0
4.5

3 .0
5.0
3.5
9.1
36.7
4.6

3.3
7.6
30.9
5.0

7.7
7.2
13.8
18.7
15.8
0.6
-1.2
2.6
0.2

7.7
8.3
15.0
17.7
15.6
0.2
-0.9
3.1
0.9

7.9
8.9
16.1
16.8
13.3
0.4
0.1
3.4
1.1

8,1
8.6
16.5
12.3
10.3
0.6
1.7
3.0
0.9

7.4
8.6
16.9
9.5
7.9
1.0
2.2
1.7
0.9

6.5
8.4
17.4
7.7
5,3
1.1
2.3
0.2
-0.1

-1.2
2.1
0.0

-0.2
1.4
0.7

0.7
0.9
0.9

1.2
-0.5

0.2
-0.9

0.5
-0.7

-2.7
1.3

-2.3
2.8

-0.1
1.6

) .9
.5

1.1
2.4

1.5
3.0

0.6
3.0

-0.4
2.6

3.8
-0.4
3.0

3.7
1.7
-0.9

3.4
2 .7
1 .0
0 .2

6 .6
4.3
1 .2
2 .3
0.4

) .4
.1
>.8

-o!4
0.8
1 .1

-0 .4
0.6
0.0
1.1
1 .9

-0.2
1.1
1.7

0.0
0.8
1.7

-0.4
0.8
1.9

0.3
-0.3
0.1
1.2

-0.3
0.3
-0.2
1.3

-0.3
1.0
1 .3
1.6

1.0
L.8
.8
J.I

1.4
2.2
2.2

2.8

3.7

4.7

5.1

1 .0
3.1
4.0

2.6
7.0
26.4
6.0
7 .0
6.1
8.5
18.2
8.0
3,7
2.9
3.9
0.5
0,2

2.6
7.8
21,4
6.1

2.6
10.1
16.9
6.4

2.3
3.2
15.1
12.7
7 .4

4.8
19.0
8.6
7.0

7.0
24.9
7.5
6.9

4.2
10.5
33.0
5.7

3.5
9.0
34.5
4.7

5.3
8.5
17.1
8.6
3.0
3.5
3.0
0.4
-0.4

5.5
8.3
17.0
9.8
3.2
3.0
2.0
-0.5
0.2

5.9
9.6
20.4
11.4
3.7
0.7
1.6
-0.6
-0.4

6 .2
10 . 8
22.1
13.0
2.9
0.4
2.1
-0.7
-2.9

6 .5
12.5
21.0
15.
2.
0.
3.
0.
-5.

7.8
8.1
15.0
17.7
14.9
0.4
-0.7
3.0
0.7

7.3
8.5
16.9
9.8
7.8
0.9
2.1
1 .6
0.6

-

1 .0

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are
centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.




-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0 .0

o!i

-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.3
0 .1

o!i

0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0 .2
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.3
0 t
0 ,i

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0 .0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2

o!:
1 .3
0."
o.e
0."
0 .i
0.

0.3
0.9
1.9
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7

0
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.3

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

2:3

i!o
o!6

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
-0.7
2.4
0.0

3 .4
1.1
0.9
0.4
-1.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
1 .3

*6
323^

322

0

(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959,..
I960.. .
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966. . .
1967...
196 8. . .
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980..,
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

314!a
318.4
323 !4
324.7

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-0.2
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.6

197 9 . . .
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

83.5
85.3
84.9
86.5
90.2
93.4
93.3
95.4
95.2
94.6
94.8
94.8
95.1
96.4
99.0
99.7
102.4
105.7
110.1
114.6
118.1
126 . 1
157.8
171.2
182.7
195.9

1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
196 9 . . .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...

IV Q

0.7
1.3
2 .4
3.1

2!3
3.6
3 .3
2.6
2.6
8.3
21.6
6.2
7.0
5.6
8.4
17.4
8.8
3.3
3.1
3.0
0.1
0.0

0.6
-0.7
5 .5
5.0
-0.1
2.9
0.5
0.1
0.5
-0.2
0.9
1.8
2.2
4!5
4.7
4 .3
2.5
5.0
19.7
9.6
7.1
6 .9

n!o
21.2
13.3
3.0
0.5
2.3
-0.4
-2.8

-1.1
1.2
0.6
4.3
3.9
0.9
1.1
1.1
- 0 .5
-0.4
-0.1
0.5
0.7
1.6
2!s
3.7
3 .7
3.4
3.8
11.9
24.7
5.9
6 .6
6.7
9.0
17.6
12.4
7.3
1 .2
1.7
1.1
-0.4

(JULY 1986)

103

E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States

Duration in months

Trough

Cycle

Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)

Business cycle reference dates

Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Peak from
previous
peak

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak

18

30
22
46
18
34

March 1882
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895 .,

65
38
13
10
17

36
22
27
20
18

99
74
35
37
37

101
60
40
30
35

June 1897
December 1900
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912

June 1899
September 1902
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913

18
18
23
13
24

24
21
33
19
12

36
42
44
46
43

42
39
56
32
36

December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
July 1924
November 1927

August 1918 ....
January 1920....
May 1923
October 1 9 2 6 . . .
August 1929 ....

23
10
22
27
21

35
51
28
36
40

SL

March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
May 1954

May 1937
February 1945 ..
November 1948.
July 1953
August 1957 ....

43
13

64
63

93
93
45

April 1958
February 1961
November 1970
March 1975
July 1980
November 1982

April 1960
.December 1969 .
November 1973 .
January 1980....
July 1981

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870

June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873

March 1879
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894

18
8

31

1
18
14
13

1

11
10
10

ii
16
6
16

50
80
37

i5

39
24
10£
36
58
12

48
30

M

36

50
52

40

ii

17
40
41
34

J£

48
15
47
34

49
32

Hi

ill

47
74
18

52
64
28

Average, all cycles:
1854-1982 (30 cycles).
1854-1919 (16 cycles).
1919-1945 (6 cycles),..
1945-1982 (8 cycles) ..

18
22
18
11

33
27
35
45

51
48
53
56

Average, peacetime cycles:
1854-1982 (25 cycles)...
1854-1919 (14 cycles)...
1919-1945 (5 cycles)
1945-1982 (6 cycles) ....

19
22
20
11

27
24
26
34

46
46
46
46

V
2

51
49
53
55

M6
47
45
44

4

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korean war, and Vietnam war), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles
that include the wartime expansions.
1

29 cycles.

2

1 5 cycles.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

14
0



J

24 cycles.

4

13 cycles.

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

I IT

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Year
and
month

Japan
(Yen)

1985
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
July*
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
1986
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
>May..
June.
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.

West
Germany
(D. mark)

(Franc)

United
Kingdom
(Pound)

3.1706
3.3025
3.2982
3.0946
3.1093
3.0636
2.9083
2.7937
2.8381
2.6446
2.5954
2.5122

9.7036
10.0933
10.0776
9.4427
9.4829
9.3414
8.8513
8.5323
8.6599
8.0641
7.9095
7.68.49

0.8872
0.9148
0.8887
0.8080
0.8011
0.7808
0.7243
0.7225
0.7330
0.7035
0.6946
0.6922

France

199.89
184.85
178.69
175.09
167.03
167.54
2
159.32

2.4384
2.3317
2.2752
2.2732
2.2277
2.2337
2
2.1613

7.4821
7.1575
6.9964
7.2060
7.0967
7.1208
2
6.9535

i

900

Japan (yen)

260

D
180
HO

9.2

V

West Germany (d. mark)

2.8
2.4

0.7020
0.6994
0.6815
0.6673
0.6574
0.6629
2
0.6617

2.0
10

A

France (franc)

9
8

7
6
5
0.9
0.6
0.7

v
Italy

Canada
(Dollar)

United Kingdom (pound)

Exchange value
of the U.S.
dollar1

(Lira)
1985
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
1986
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.

i

Ratio scale

220

254.18
260.48
257.92
251.84
251.73
248.84
241.14
237.46
236.53
214.68
204.07
202.79

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Year
and
month

m TTT nr

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar—

(March 1973=100)

0.6
O.S
2000
1800

1,948.76
2,042.00
2,078.50
1,975.89
1,984.45
1,953.92
1,900.33
1,873.51
1,903.42
1,785.43
1,753.72
1,713.50

1.3240
1.3547
1.3840
1.3658
1.3756
1.3676
1.3526
1.3575
1.3703
1.3667
1.3765
1.3954

152.83
158.43
158.14
149.56
149.92
147.71
140.94
137.55
139.14
130.71
128.08
125.80

1,663.14
1,588.21
1,548.43
1,559.45
1,528.50
1,533.10
2
1,484.82

1.4070
1.4043
1,4009
1.3879
1.3757
1.3899
2
1.3800

123.65
118.77
116.05
115.67
113.27
113.77
2
110.71

s

Italy (lira)

r

D

1800
1400
1200
1000
800
1.8

Canada (dollar)

1.4
1.2
1.0
160
140

Exchange value of theJJ.S. dollar
(index: March 1 9 7 3 - 1 0 0 )

120

V

100

III III HI
73

HI

111 111 111 III 111 III 111 III III III

74 75 76 77 78

9 80 81

82 83

84 85

80

86

1

This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries
plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see
the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 700).
z
Average for July 1 through 25.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




15
0

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
to
Net contribution 1 index

Basic data
Series t i t l e
(and unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). .
5. Average weekly i n i t i a l claims f o r unemployment insurance, State programs1 (thous.). . .
8. M f r s . ' new orders in 1982 d o l l a r s , consumer
goods and materials industries ( b i l . d o l . ) . .
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent)
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders f o r plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars ( b i l . d o l . )
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). . .
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1982 d o l . , smoothed2 (ann. r a t e , b i l . d o l . ) .
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed2 (percent) . . .
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
106. Money supply M in 1982 dollars
2
( b i l . dol.)
111. Change in business and consumer c r e d i t
outstanding (ann. r a t e , percent)
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thous.)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (ann. r a t e , b i l . d o l . )
47. I n d u s t r i a l production
(index: 1977=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982
dollars ( m i l . d o l . )
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
indicators 3 (index: 1967=100)

Mar.
to
Apr.
1986

June
1986

May
1986

Apr.
1986

Mar.
1986

Apr.
to
May
1986

May
to
June
1986

0 .00

0.00

-0.08

.

40.7

40.7

r40.7

P40.6

.

393

374

378

378

0.14

-0.03

0.00

.

83.92

87.03

r83,67

p84.35

0.18

-0.19

0.04

50

50

55

50

0.00

0.20

-0.22

rl21.8

rl23 .1

r l 1 9 .9

p l l 9 .9

0.15

-0.37

31 .04

r31 .07

r31 .05

p32.77

0 .00

.

146.3

150.3

142.6

142.9

.

r25.93

r29.67

pl2.95

NA

r-0.47

r-0.59

-0.26

232,33

237 .98

2,295 .7

0 .00

0.00

0.13

0.08

-0.16

0.01

0.09

-0.40

NA

0.25

-0.05

0,13

0.22

238.46

245.30

0.15

0 ,01

0,19

2 ,328.4

r2,347 .5

p2 ,354.7

0 .45

0 .26

0.11

r3 .8

r2 .7

r8 .0

p3 .7

- 0 .06

0 .28

-0.24

r l 7 6 .0

rl78.3

rl78.1

pl78.6

99,484

r99,783

r99 ,908

p99 ,819

0.25

0.10

-0.10

r2,593.6

r2,630.0

r2,615.0

p2,603.7

0.70

-0.29

-0.28

124.4

rl25.2

rl24.7

pl24.1

0.18

-0.11

-0,17

412,062

r422,645

P 414,544

0.56

-0.43

rl62.8

rl65.3

163 .8

pl62.6

1 ,54

-0 .91

-0.73

14.3

14.4

15.2

0 .05

-0.05

-0.57

rl.53

pi.55

NA

-0.53

0.26

NA

r81 .7

r81 .6

p81 .4

-0.48

-0.04

-0.11

8.83

8.50

8.50

-0.19

-0.23

0.00

r339,576

r339,689

p339,622

-0.05

0.01

- 0 .01

rl5.93

pl6,13

-0.23

0.77

NA

r l 3 1 .4

rl32.4

-1.35

0.76

-0.68

LAGGING INDICATORS
91, Average duration of unemployment1
14.4
(weeks)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
1 .57
to sales in 1982 dollars ( r a t i o )
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-r83,0
actual data as a percent of trend (percent) . .
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
9.10
(percent)
101. Commercial and i n d u s t r i a l loans outstanding
r340,217
in 1982 dollars ( m i l . d o l . )
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding t o personal income (percent). . . .
rl5.99
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3
rl33.2
(index: 1967-100)

y

J

*

i

NA

NA

P131.5

1 .31

-0,11

0 .28

NA

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is
computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components
and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or
the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
x

This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor
for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.
2
3

106



G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS

These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of
the current business cycle. To set the current movements in historical
perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods also
are shown. The selected periods are superimposed to compare the
current business cycle with corresponding historical patterns and to
facilitate critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and severity of
the indicators' current movements.

1. For most indicators, two cyclical comparison charts are shown.
In the left panel, comparisons are based on reference peak levels and
reference trough dates; in the right panel, comparisons are based on
both the levels and the dates of the specific troughs in each indicator.
(See the charts on the following pages.)

The three-part code indicates the timing
classification of the series at peaks, at troughs,
and at all turns: L=leading; C=roughly coincident; Lg=lagging; and U=unclassified.

This number indicates the latest month (or
quarter) of data plotted. (^January)

1

" I
I • ' • ' • I 'V • • • I
Series number, series title

I •••' •I

2. The vertical line represents trough dates: reference trough
dates in the left panel and specific trough dates in the right panel. The
current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so
that their reference trough dates (left panel) and specific trough dates
(right panel) are on this vertical line.

•135

3. The horizontal line represents the level of data at reference cycle peaks (left panel) and specific cycle troughs (right panel). The
current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so
that their reference peak levels (left panel) and specific trough, levels
(right panel) are on this horizontal line.

•130

• 125
4. For most series, deviations (percent or actual differences) from
the reference peak and specific trough levels are computed and plotted.
For series measured in percent units (e.g., the unemployment rate),
these units (actual data) are plotted rather than deviations. The deviations (if plotted) and actual data for the current cycle are shown in the
tables accompanying the charts.

•120

5. For series that move counter to movements in general business
activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used; i.e.,
declines in data are plotted as upward movements, and increases in
data are plotted as downward movements.

6. Several curves are shown in each chart. The heavy solid line
( • » ) describes the current cycle. The dotted line ( • • • ) represents
the median pattern of the seven post-World War II cycles. The other
lines represent selected business cycles. In the left panel, each line is
labeled according to the year of the reference trough; in the right panel,
each line is labeled according to the date of the specific trough.

i i I i i i i i I i i i i i
7. These charts use the business cycle (reference) peak and trough
dates designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Peaks: Nov. 1948 (IVQ 1948), July 1953 (IIQ 1953), Aug. 1957
(IIIQ 1957), Apr. 1960 (IIQ 1960), Dec. 1969 (IVQ 1969), Nov. 1973
(IVQ 1973), Jan. 1980 (IQ 1980), July 1981 (IIIQ 1981).

i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i

0

+6

+12

Months from troughs

Troughs: Oct. 1949 (IVQ 1949), May 1954 (IIQ 1954), Apr. 1958
(IIQ 1958), Feb. 1961 (IQ 1961), Nov. 1970 (IVQ 1970), Mar. 1975 (IQ
1975), July 1980 (IIIQ 1980), November 1982 (IVQ 1982).

This scale measures time in months before ( - )
and after ( + ) reference trough dates (left
panel) and specific trough dates (right panel),




This scale shows deviations (percent or actual
differences) from reference peak levels (left
panel) and specific trough levels (right panel).

This scale shows actual series units and applies
only to the current business cycle (heavy solid
line).

107

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

' Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
I I I I 1 f I I U 111 I M 11 I M 11 11 11III 11 H 111111111 I M 11 11 IT I j

Actual

21. Average weekly overtime hours,
manufacturing

I I I I I1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 11 I I1 1 1 I I1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 11 jI11 I I11 11 i l l

MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA
YEAR

M i l l

Devi
Actual
ations
data
from
for
specific current
troughs cycle

21. Average weekly overtime hours,
manufacturing

SERIES 21
HOURS
32

4.5

4.0

3.2

7785

33
34
35
36

3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4

8/85
9/85
10/85
11/85

37
38
39
40

3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4

12/85
1/86
2/86
3/86

3.4
3.4
3.3

4/86
5/86
6/86

41
42
43 .

V

•

•

3.6

•

3.4

•

3.2

•

MONTHS
DEVIFROM A T I O N S CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
SPEC.
AND
FROM
DATA
TROUGH
YEAR
12/82

3.8

3.0

3.5
SERIES 21
HOURS
31
32
3.0

2.5

- J 2.0

0.9
1.0

3.2
3.3

7/85
8/85

33
34
35
36

1.0
1.1
1.1
1.3

3.3
3.4
3.4
3.6

9/85
10/85
11/85
12/85

37
38
39
40

1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1

3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4

1/86
2/86
3/86
4/86

41
42

1.1
1.0

3.4
3.3

5/86
6/86

• 2.B

•
-

MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

2.6

0.2

CURRENT MONTH
AND
ACTUAL
YEAR
DATA

• 2.4
- J 0.0

SERIES 82
PERCENT

82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing

32

80.1

7/85

33
34
35
36

80.7
80.1
79.6
80.2

8/85
9/85
10/85
11/85

37
38
39
40

80.4
80.7
79.8
79.1

12/85
1/86
2/86
3/86

41
42
43

79.5
79.2
78.6

4/86
5/86
6/86

82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing

Actual
20

• 85
15

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
FROM
ACTUAL
SPEC.
YEAR
12/82
DATA
TROUGH

• 80
10

SERIES 82
PERCENT
31
32
-

-

ii 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
111111111111111111111
-12

-i

0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42

75

1

70

12.1
12.7

80.1
80.7

33
34
35
36

12.1 '
11.6
12.2
12.4

80.1
79.6
80.2
80.4

9/85
10/85
11/85
12/85

37
38
39
40

12.7
11.8
11.1
11.5

80.7
79.8
79.1
79.5

1/86
2/86
3/86
4/86

41
42

11.2
10.6

79.2
78.6

5/86
6/86

Months from reference troughs

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts* see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of this issue.

108




• 75

7/85
8/85

• 70

ill M . . . llllill.Iim.il. iilllimljllllilllll
M
-6
0 + 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42
Months from specific troughs

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
H,...I.|,MM,HI.>,H.n,MM.|.M.I|M.M|U

30. Change in business inventories/1982 dollars

Actual
data

QRTRS.
FROM
REF .
TROUGH

5
6
7
•8
+ 80

CURRENT QRTR.
ACTUAL.
DATA

AND 30. Change in business inventories, 1982 dollars

YEAR

SERIES 30
ANN. RATE
BIL. D O L .
•
85.1 1/84
57.0
11/84
60.6 111/84
3 3.9
IV./84
23.2
17.4
0.7
-5.2

+ 70

13
.

+ 60

14

QRTRS.
FROM

+ 50

SPEC'
TROUGH

+ 40
+ 30

5
6
7
8

+ 20

82.5
76.7
60.0
5 4.1
99.2
78.9

-10

1/86
11/86

120

#+60

110
1 0 0

# + 4 0

90
80

#+20

70

23.2
1/85
17.4 11/85
0.7 H I / 8 5
. r 5 . 2 IV/85
39.9
J9.6

#+80

130

SERIES»' 3d
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL
144.4
85.1
1/84
57.0
116.3
H/84
6 0 . 6 ]til/84
.119.9
93.2
33.9
IV/84

13

0

140

DEVIATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
IV/82
DATA YEAR

9
10
11
12

+10

Actual

1/85
H/85
CII/85
IV/85

39.9
19.6

10
11
12

Devi- Actual
ations
data
• from
for
specific current
troughs cycle

60

1/86
11/86

#o

50
-

40

-

30

-

20

-

# -20

10

-20
-30
#-40

-40
-50

QRTRS.
DEVIr
FROM ATIONS CURRENT
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
TROUGH 111/81
DATA

-J - 6 0

50. GNP in 1982 dollars
e,c,c I

Devi. ations
from
reference
peaks

Actual
data .
current
cycle

• 3,700

+ 10

SERIES 50
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
5.5
3444.7
1/84
6.8
3487.1 11/84
7.4
3507.4 111/84
7.8
3520.4
IV/84

for

+ 15

• 3,600

• 3,500

9
10
11
12

9.3
,10.4
11 .0

14

12.0
12.3

•^3,300

1 ti 111 11 ii 11111111111111 i II111111111 It I I I 11
.1

-6

j

3655.9
:
t3 6 6 5 . 7

50. GNP in 1982 dollars

1/85
11/85
111/85
IV/85

• 3.700

t/86
1 1 / 86

SERIES 50
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
9.2 3444.7
1/84
10,
3487.1 11/84
11
3507.4 111/84

• 3,400

• 3,100

3547.0
3567.6
3603.8
3622.3

8.7

#-60

QRTRS/
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH 111/82
DATA
YEAR

+5

t 3.200

-• 0

9
10
11
12

11.6
12.4
13.1
14.2

3520.4 IV/84
3547.0
1/85
3567.6 11/85
3603.8 111/85

13
14
15

14.8
15.9
16.2

3622.3 IV/85
3655.9
1/86
3665.7 11/86

0 + 6 + 1 2 + 1 8 + 2 4 +30 +36 +41
Months from reference troughs,

-I 0
11 n 111 I I 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i l1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I i l l i

-6

0 + 6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42
Months from specific troughs.

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of this issue,




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Agricultural products, exports
,.,.,
Anticipations and intentions
Consumer sentiment, index . ,
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, 01.
Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars
Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars,.,
Plant and equipment expenditures, D l . .
Prices, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Imports of automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures

Current issue
Series
number

604

(

^ e numbers)
Charts
Tables

56

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

12/85

58
94
7
95
7
91
7
10
0
6
1
90
7
96
7
978
97
7
92
7
93
7

22
38
38
3
8
2
4
2
4
38
38
38
38
38
38

65
7
6
7
6
7
6
67
6
7
7
6
7
6
7
6
7
6
7
6
7
6

11/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
5/86
5/86
11/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85

2
0
3
7
3
7
3
7
'3
2
2
3
37
37
37
3
7
3
7

66
1
5
5

5
6
2
2

92
6
5

12/85
2/86

5
6
3
9

B
Balance of payments See International transactions.
Bank loans—See Business Loans.
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve..
Bonds—See Interest rates.
Sorrowing—See Credit.
Budget—See Government.
Building See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures-—See Investment, capital.
Business failures, current liabilities
• Business formation, index
Business incorporations
Business inventories—See Inventories,
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving
,
,

Canada—See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index
Capital investment—See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force—See also Employment.
Employment
,
Employment as percent of population
Labor force
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded..
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector..
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
.,
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector,...
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
,
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
,
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
,
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction..
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coinciders, index
Four coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers, index
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money ant) financial flows
Profitability
Twelve leaders, index
Twelve feaders, rate of change
See notes at end of index.

110



33
33

72
72

4/85
4/85

35
35

29
76

13,25
24

67
67

6/86
8/85

24
12

14
12
13

33
12,23
23

72
65
65

12/85
6/86
6/86

34
21
21

101
72
112
295

82
8
4

15,35
35
32
46

20
20

73
73
71
82

64
64

6/86
6/86
6/86
5/86

32
32
32
26

8/85
8/85

1
4
1
4

97
1
1
95
6
33
3

24
2
4
37
48

6
6
66
7
5
86

2/85
2/85
2/85
7/86

2
2
2
2
2
2
5
1

94
1
3
5
3
4

1
1
2
9
2
9

60
70
7
0

1/86
2/86
2/86

5
2
6
2
6

442
90
41
4
3
7

5
1
1
7
5
1
18,51

89
6
2
89
62,89

4/88
4/86
4/86
4/86

9
9
9
9

90
2
92Oc
91
5
90
4
9

1
0
3
9
3
6
1
1
2
3

60

5

74'
60
6
6

9/85
9/85
1/86
1/86
10/85

*5
5
2
1

11
0
7
2
12
1

15,35
3
5
32

7
3
7
3
7
1

6/86
6/86
'6/86

32
32
32

35
4
20
8

4
9
4
5

87
82

12/84
3/86

4
6
4
6

64

30,47

70,83

2/86

46

36
4

4
9

88

12/84

46

30
4

4
9

87

10/85

5

31
4
38
4
39
4

4
9
50
50

87
88
88

10/85
9/85
9/85

5
5
3
5
3

53

1
9

6
3

2/86

1
1

920
920c
90
4

1
0
3
9
1
1

60

90
3
930c

1
0
3
9

60

94
1
95
1
917
96
1
90
1
910c

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
3
9

60
60
60
60
60

60'

9/85
9/85
1/86

5
"5

9/85
9/85

5

1/86
1/86
1/86
1/86
9/85
9/85

5
5
5
5
5

Series

Tables

13,25

67

6/86

9
69

23
24

66
67

10/85
8/85

2
1
1
7

86
248
87
89
249
28
334
8
75

25
47
25
25
47
25
48
12,21
22

67
83
67
67
83
67
86
64
65

2/86
3/86
2/86
2/86
3/86
6/86
7/86
5/86
8/85

40
40
40
40
40

66
113
95
39

35
32
15,35
33

73
72
73
72

6/86
6/86
6/86
7/85

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4

Series
number

Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales
Gross private fixed investment
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Presidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items

description
(*)

n
6
1
1
5
1
2

320

84,95

49

84

58

Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding

49

322

Food
93
94

Historical
data
(issue date)

* pdl>e
Charts

29

(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

22

65

4/85
4/85
11/85

4
9
4
9
2
0

525

53

90

12/85

5
5

20

12,23

66

5/86

2
1

10
116

23
34

66
73

5/86
9/85

2
1
3
5

110

32

72

11/85

101
72
112

15t35
35
32

73
73
71

6/86
6/86
6/86

n
n
32

35

73

32

72

95
39
Ill
33

15,35
33
13,32
32

73
72
12
71

6/86
6/86
6/86
?/85
6/86
6/86

3
3
33
3
3
34
3
1
3
1

98
331

28
48

69
85

6/86
7/86

5
1
50

66

Net change

113

Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index
D
Debt-See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, industrial production
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagrieultural payrolls
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components
New orders, manufacturing
Plant and equipment expenditures
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Disposable personal income—See income.

55/

11/85
12/85
12/85
5/86
10/85
12/85

5
5
5
5
5
6
56
5
6
5
5

54
53
54
54
55
55
55

91
90
91
91
91
91
91

7/85
7/85
7/85
7/85
7/85
5/86
5/86

1
7
1
5
1
7
1
5
5
4
3
4
3

39
32

33
12,21

72
64

7/85
1/86

3
4
1
7

37
36
38
36
37

11
5
3
7
5

36
38
36
36
37

971
970
960
972
967

38
38
37
38
37

973
976
978
977
968
961

38
38
38
38
3?
36

75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
?6
75
74
77

im

962
975
952
950
964

,

8/85

90
90
91
91
91
90

965
951
974
963
966

,

91

53
53
54
55
55
53

559
548
588
561
570
564
565

,.

54

517
543
580
578
577
525

1/86
12/85
8/85
8/85

n

1/85
12/85
1/86
1/86
7/85

"i

12/85
11/85
12/85
12/85
1/86

'7
3
2
3
3?
37
2
5

12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
7/85
8/85

3
7
3
7
3
7
3
7
2
5
5

a
?
1
5

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Earnings—See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl ...
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Help-wanled advertising in newspapers
.,
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims. State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age ...
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities . ..
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers... .
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over. .. .
Unemployment rate, insured
Unemployment rate, total .
.
. ..
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, Dl,
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Exports—See International transactions.

Federal funds rate
Federal Government—See Government
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food- See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France—See International comparisons.
Free reserves

Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and focal, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP. constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply M l
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital.
H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanled advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours ..
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl . . .
Average weekly overtime

Current issue
Series
number Charts Tables

41
4
58
7
57
7

5
1
5
5
5
5

4c
8
48
40
94
7
4
1
93
6
42
4
50
7
90
4
6
60
5
92
6
2
1
43
5
42
5
41
5
48
4
42
46
4
45
4
47
4
44
4
9
1
37
44
4
5
4
3
1

3
9
1
7
1
7
38
14,17
3
6
5
1
5
5
1
7
1
6
1
6
12,16
3
6
1
6
5
1
5
1
5
1
5
1
1
7
5
1
5
1
5
1
5
1
15,18
18,51
1
8
1
8
1
8
12,16

91
6

36'

8
9
9
1
9
1

4/86
5/86
10/85

61*
62
7
6
62
7
4
8
9
9
1
62
6
1
6
1
6
1
7
4
6
1
8
9
89
8
9
8
9
62
8
9
8
9
8
9
8
9
62
62,89
62
62
6
2
61

1/86
1/86
7/85
12/85
7/85
8/85
4/86
7/85
4/86
4/86
4/86
1/85
1/85
7/85
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
7/85

77
II

74

Series
description
(*)

9
56
56

5
5
37
5
5
9
5
9
9
9

8/85

9/85

119

94
23
1
97
1

Historical
data
(issue date)

3
3
40
1
1

7
2
80
60

4/85
3/86
1/86

35
38
5

5/86

4/85

2/86

52
0
51
0
50
0
52
1
51
1
50
1
28
9

52
5
2
5
2
5
2
5
2
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
8
3

5/86
5/86
5/86
5/86
5/86
5/86
5/86

53
53
53
53
53
53
48

23
6
22
6
25
6
54
6
55
6
27
6
26
6
28
6
21
6
20
6

4
3
4
3
47
5
5
5
5
43
4
3
4
7
4
3
4
3

8
1
8
1
83
9
1
9
1
8
1
8
1
8
3
8
1
8
1

3/86
3/86
3/86
5/86
5/86
3/86
-3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86

43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43

31
1
68

48
30

8
4
7
0

5/86
2/86

49
28

5
0
5b
0
5c
0
20
0
200b
200c
17
0
4
9
30
1
27
1

19,40

3
1
2
0
48
40

63,80
80
80
80
80
80
7
1
6
3
84
80

2/86
2/86
2/86
2/86
2/86
2/86
2/86
2/86
5/86
3/86

38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38

4
6
60

1
6
1
6

6
1
6
1

4/86
4/86

1

12,16

7/85

91
6
2
1

3
6
1
6

6
1
7
7
7
4
6
1

3
9
40

8/85
7/85

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits..
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

Current issue
Series (P^e numbers)
number Charts Tables

67
67
67
83

28
29
89
249

25
13,25
25
47

310

48

35
4
20
8

4
9
4
5

87
82

Historical
data
(issue date)

6/86
6/86
2/86
3/86

Series
description
(*)
24
24
40
40

I
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
.
. . . .
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current d o l l a r s . . .
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change..
....
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income .
. .
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract,
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction.
...
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
. . .
Industrial production—See also International comparisons
Business equipment
Consumer goods
. . . .
Defense and space equipment.. .
Durable manufactures.
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components.
. .
. . .
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change.
. .
.
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
.
.
Spot market index
. ..
Installment credit-See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims .
.. .
Average weekly initial claims, 01
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
. .
.
.
....
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans . .
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate ..
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields.
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate . .
Treasury bond yields
..
. . .
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States

West Germany

5/86

12/84
3/86

46
46

64

30,47

70,83

2/86

46

36
4
9
5
26
8

4
9
15,35
4
5

88
7
3
82

12/84
6/86
3/86

4
6
3
3
2
6

27
8
25
2
24
2

47
40
40

8
3
80
80

3/86
3/86
3/86

2
6
1
1
1
1

27
2

40

80

3/86

1
1

30
4

4
9

87

10/85

5

31
4
62
5
61
5
28
8
29
8
20
2
5
2
23
2

4
9
57
57
4
5
47
4
5
1
9
40

87
9
3
9
3
82
8
3
82
6
3
6
3

10/85
9/85
9/85
3/86
3/86
3/86
2/86
2/86

5
5
7
5
7
47
4
7
4
6
1
1
1
1

5c
1
5
1
18
0
22
8

3
9
14,19
3
1
4
5

'63*
7
1
82

11/85
2/86
6/86
3/86

'0
i
i
3

23
8
24
8

47
4
5

83
82

3/86
3/86

47
47

25
8
38
4
39
4

47
50
50

8
3
88
88

3/86
9/85
9/85

47
5
3
5
3

5
3
1
3
35
3

1
9
2
3
48

6
3
6
5
8
5

2/86
6/86
7/86

1
1
2
1
5
1

2
4
6
7
7
6
7
5
22
6
5
57
5
54
9
1
7
3
20
6
3
7
4
20
6
3
47 14,20,58 63,94
78
9 6 "37'
6
7
5
4c
7
3
9

8/85
8/85
8/85
8/85
8/85
8/85

1
2
1
2
1
3
1
2
1
2
1
2

8/85
11/85

"\2

47

97
6
2
3

37'
28

7
9
7
5
6
9

1/86
1/86

2
5
2
5

5
92
6
4
5
28
8
29
8

12,16
3
6
1
8
4
5
4
7

6
1
74
62
82
8
3

1/85
1/85
4/86
3/86
3/86

8
8
8
47
47

67
16
1
19
1
18
1
17
1
19
0
14
1
15
1
32
3

3
5
34
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
5
3
4
34
48

7
3
7
3
72
7
3
7
3
7
3
7
2
7
3
86

12/85
9/85
9/85
9/85
9/85
6/85
9/85
9/85
7/86

3
5
3
5
3
5
3
5
3
5
3
5
3
5
3
5
50

73
3
76
3
77
3
78
3
72
3
30
2
75
3

5
9
5
9
5
9
5
9
5
9
4
9
5
9

9
6
9
5
9
6
9
5
9
5
84,95
9
5

6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
4/85
6/85

60
6
1
6
1
6
1
60
4
9
6
1

94
73
2
58
76
2
58
94
77
2
58
94
78
2
58
94
71
2
58
94
72
2
58
94
47 14,20,58 63,94
75
2
58
94

10/85
10/85
10/85
10/85
10/85
10/85
8/85
10/85

5
9
5
9
5
9
5
9
58
58
1
2
5
9

See notes at end of index.




111

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources ot Series," following this index)
International comparisons-Continued
Stock prices
Canada
France

Italy
Japan

United Kingdom
United States
West Germany..
International transactions
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, excluding military aid
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports ol domestic agricultural products
Exports ol goods and services, constant dollars
Exports ot goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, general
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports ot automobiles and parts,...
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Income on ioreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Net exports ot goods and services,
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, book value
Manufacturing and trade, change in book value
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
on order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,

manufacturers'.....

Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers', change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Ol
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change—See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Nonresidents, constant dollars
Nonresidents, percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, nondeiense capital goods,
constant dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
current dollars..,..,..
Plant and equipment
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, 01
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy—See International comparisons.

Current issue

Series (page n u m b e r s >
number Charts Tables

747
748

59
59

742
19
745

59
59
59

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

667
622
602
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
669
257
253
614
652
651

57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

93
93
92
93
92
82
82
93
92
92
93
92
93
82
82
92
93
93

743
746

59
59

Historical
data
(issue date)

description

11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85

63
63
63
63
63
25
63

9/85
9/85
12/85
9/85
12/85
3/86
3/86
9/85
12/85
12/85
9/85
12/85
9/85
3/86
3/86
12/85
9/85
9/85

57
57
56
57
56
44
44 •
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

255

44

82

3/86

250
251

44
47

82
83

3/86
3/86

44
44

68,81
81
83
91
68
68
60
68
68
68

2/86
3/86
3/86
7/85
6/85
10/85
1/86
10/85
6/85
10/85
12/85

40,
40
40
17
17
17
5
17
17
17
37

30
26,42
245
42
247
47
559
54
65
27
77 15,27
915
11
71
27
31
26
70
27
975
38
36

13,26

68

5/86

78

27

68

6/85
6/85

38

26

97
11
965
914
9

24
24
37
11
23

66
66
75
60
66

2/85
2/85
2/85
1/86
10/85

69

24

67

8/85

243
242
86
248

42
42
25
47

81
81
67
83

3/86
3/86
2/86
3/86

40
40
40
40

88
87
89
249
241
240

25
25
25
47
42
42

67
67
67
83
81
81

2/86
2/86
2/86
3/86
3/86
3/86

40
40
40
40
40
40

27

23

66

5/86

15

24

23

66

5/86

15

20 12,23
10
23
100
24
61
24
970
38

66
66
67
67
76

5/86
5/86
5/86'
5/86
11/85

23
23

652
651

93
93

9/85
9/85

57
57

57
57

22
22
22
5
21

J
Japan—See International comparisons.
L
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector
Ubor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business..:
Labor force—See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change

Diffusion index

See notes at end of index.

112



68
63

30
30

70
70

2/86
9/85

28
28

62
62
26

30
15
29

70
70
70

4/86
4/86
1/85

28
28
28

10
39

60

9/85
9/85
1/86

'V

930
930c

952

36

74

5

Series title
'
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources ot Series," following this index)

( ? S miters)
Series <P d P numumf
number Charts Tables

Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans—See Credit.

Histoneal

Senes

da(a

description
(*)

(issue date)

910
910c
950
14
104

10
39
36
33
31

60

78

27

68

9/85
9/85
1/86
12/85
6/86

38
84
8

26
20
12,21

68
64
64

6/85
8/85
5/86

60

5
"5"
34
29

6/85

1/86

74
72
71

M
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'inventories, change
Materials, capacity utilization rate
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices—See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade—See International transactions.
Military—See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total

917
104

U

1
7
1
4
1
5

31

71

105

31

71

85
106
102
10?
108
33
118
117

31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73

6/86
6/86
6/86
6/86
6/86
2/86
6/86
6/86
9/85
9/85

2
9
2
9
2
9
3
0
2
9
30
30
3
1
3
5
3
5

27
24
8

23
23
12,21

66
66
64

5/86
5/86
5/86

15
15
15

20

12,23

66

5/86

2
1

10
548
7
6

23
53
21
21

5/86
7/85
5/86
5/86

21
15
15
15

364
971

37
38

66
90
64
64
77
75
76

7/85
12/85

15
37

88
87
86
248

25
25
25
47

67
67
67
83

2/86
2/86
2/86
3/86

40
40
40
40

Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders—See New orders and Unfilled orders.

517
543
721

53
53
58

90
90
94

11/85
12/85
10/85

55
55
58

Outlays, Defense Department

580

54

91

49

20

63

2/86

30
15
50
50
20
20
16

70
70
88
38
64
64
61

4/86
4/86
1/85
1/85
8/85
8/85
7/85

5
2
5
2

4/86
4/86
4/86

9
9
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
48
48
5
6

Money supply Ml, constant dollars
Money supply M l , percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes
• Ratio, GNP to money supply M l
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
,
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
N
National defense—See Defense.
National Government—See Government.
National income—See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP
0

Output—See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Per hour, business sector
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing

•

62
62
370
358
82
84
, 2 1

P
Participation rates, civilian labor force

Both sexes 16-19 years of age

453

51

89

females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over.
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars

452
451

51
51

89
89

55
233

Durable goods current dollars
....
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income See Income,
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports

....

22
41

65
80

Ill
41
238 41

80
81

236
239
237
231
230
235

41
41
41
41
41
47

81
81
81
80
80
83

2/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86

292
293
614

46
46
56

82
83
92

5/86
5/86
12/85

28
28
1
4
1
4
5

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment-See also Investment, capital.
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
:
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
Capital equipment
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Df
Prime contract awards. Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices—See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production—See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant dollars....
Current dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars. . .
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income .
Manufacturing and trade, Dl..
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
. .
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income ..
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj.
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj. percent of
national income

Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars...

Current issue
(Page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Series

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(•)

12,23
23
24
24
38
17

66
66
67
67
76
62

5/86
5/86
5/86
5/86
11/85
4/86

21
21
23'
23
9

320
322

49
49

84,95

4/85
4/85

49
49

84
70

5/86
5/86
1/85

49
38
28

48
48
48
48
48
48
28

85
86
69

7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
6/86

50
51
50
51
51
50
51

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

1/86
1/86

25
25

98
99

28
13,28

69
69

6/86
6/86

51
25

19
968
26

13,28
37
29

69
75
70

11/85
7/85
1/85

25
25
28

976
978
977
525
109

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
6/85

37
37
37
55
35

48
48
29

330
333
331
334
335
332
98

88
60

1/85
1/85
1/86

52
52
5

28
28
29
29

69
69
69
69

2/86
2/86
2/86
2/86

26
26

286
287
972
960
15
916
22

45
47
38
37
29
11
29

82
83
76
75
70
60
69

3/86
3/86
12/85
12/85
11/85
1/86
2/86

26
26
37
37
27
5
26

81
282

29
45

70
82

2/86
3/86

26
47

283

47

50
50
11

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(•)

249

47

83

3/86

59
54

22
22

65
65

5/86
5/86

6
9
5
7
5
6
93
7
7
7
5
9
5
4

2
4
14,22
2
2
3
8
15,27
2
2
2
2

6
7
6
5
6
5
7
6
6
8
6
5
6
5

8/85
10/85
10/85
12/85
10/85
5/86
5/86

1
7
1
7
1
7
3
7
1
7
2
0
2
0

25
9
28
9
20
9
22
9
23
9

4
6
4
6
4
6
4
6
4
6

8
2
8
3
8
2
8
2
8
3

5/86
5/86
3/86
5/86
5/86

2
6
4
8
4
8
4
8
4
8

9
8
9
9
58
8

2
8
13,28
5
4

6
9
6
9
9
1

6/86
6/86
7/85

5
1
2
5
1
7

97
6
2
3

37'
2
8

7
9
7
5
6
9

1/86
1/86

2
5
2
5

1
9
98
6

13,28
3
7

6
9
7
5

11/85
7/85

2
5
2
5

14
1
15
1

3
4
3
4

7
2
7
3

9/85
9/85

3
5
3
5

9
1
6
0
5
92
6

15,18
1
6
12,16
3
6

6
2
6
1
6
1
7
4

4/86
4/86
1/85
1/85

9
9
8
8

46
4
45
4
47
4
44
4
3
7
4
4
4
5
4
3
51
6
9
6
2
5

5
1
5
1
5
1
5
1
18,51
1
8
1
8
1
8
5
4
2
1
2
1

8
9
8
9
8
9
8
9
62,89
6
2
6
2
6
2
9
1
6
4
6
4

4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
7/85
6/85
6/85

9
9
9
9
9
9
8
9
1
5
1
5
1
5

17
0
18
0
3
2

3
1
3
1
12,21

7
1
7
1
6
4

2/86
6/86
1/86

3
0
3
0
1
7

W
Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany—See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Components
Diffusion index

1

12,16
36'

61
77
74

7/85

961

Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP..
Residential structures—See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars

Salaries—See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade..
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices—See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government—See Government.
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus—See Government.
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields...

2/86

370
358
916

Current issue
Series (paee numbers)
number Charts Tables

Velocity of money
GNP to money supply Ml, ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio..
Vendor performance, slower deliveries

20
10
100
61
970
90

311
310
26

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

3/86

967
23
284

37
28
45

79
75
69
82

1/86
1/86
3/86

25
25
47

285
93
89

47
33
25

83
72
67

3/86
4/85
2/86

47
35
40

U
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl.. .
Number unemployed
Both sexes 16-19 years of age .
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change
United Kingdom—See International comparisons.

213

20
20

3/86

8/85

NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index: GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.




113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. M M " following a series title
indicates monthly data; " Q " indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide'1 also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.

I-A. Composite Indexes
910.

Composite index of twelve leading indicators
(includes series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29f 32, 36, 99,
106,111) (M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)

914.

Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12,20, 29) (M)-Source 1 (11,60)

915.

Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M),-Source
1
(11,60)

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).-Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(23,65)

38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order, book value
(M).-Source2
(26,68)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(28,69)

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).-Source 3
(17,62)

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks ( M ) . Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
3
(14,17,62)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source 3
(17,62)

Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—
Source 3
(16,61)

Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69)

Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(1160)

23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)

(28,69,79)

I-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3

(12,16,61,77)
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis

(12,16,61)

24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2

(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)

6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64,77)

27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)

7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64)

28. New private housing units started (M).-Source
2
(25,67)

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(12,21,64)

29. Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M)-Source 2
(13,25,67)

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(23,66)

114




(18,51,62,89)

16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars ( Q ) Source 1
(28,69)

917.

940.

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(13,26,68)

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade
Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(12,23,66)

series 62, 77f 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(29,70)

37. Number of persons unemployed (M).-Source 3

Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) (M).-Sourcel
(11,60)

930.

34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

916.

920.

33. Net change In mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(32,71)

30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars ( Q ) Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories,
book value (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)

43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3

(18,62)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source3
(18,62)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4

(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(M),-Source3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source

1

(19,39,40,63,80)

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M). -Source 1

(19,63)
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). -Source 1 (19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-Source

2

(22,65)

55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).-Sourcel
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
(M).—Sources 1 and 2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment <QtM).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M) .-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
I-C. Diffusion Indexes

60.

Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board
(16,61)

88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment ( Q ) . Sourcel
(25,67)

950.

61.

New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in current dollars(Q).-Source 1
(24,67)

89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982
dollars ( Q ) . - S o u r e e l
(25,67)

Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)

951.

62.

Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).~Sources 1 and 4
(15,30,70)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).—Sources 1 and 3
(17,62)

Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)

952.

63.

Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q) — Source
3
(30,70)

- Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source 3
(15,18,62)

Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Sourcel
(36,74)

960.

Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q) —Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(35,75)

961.

Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).—Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)

962.

Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).-Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(36,74)

963.

Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)

64.

Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).—Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

65.

Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book
value (EOM).-Source2
(27,68)

66.

Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).—
Source 4
(35,73)

67.

Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source
4
(35,73)

68.

Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).—Source 1
(30,70)

69.

Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (M).—Source
2
(24,67)

70.
71.
72.

73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.

91

(33,72)
- Free reserves (M).—Source 4
94, Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source4
(33,72)
93

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income (M).—Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board
(24,66)
98. Percent change in producer prices for 28 sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)

99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(13,28,69)
Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68) 100. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)
Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value
(EOM).—Sources 1 and 2
(27,68) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982
dollars (M) — Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in curBank of New York
(15,35,73)
rent dollars (M).-Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)
ind Change in total liquid assets (M).-Sources 1 and
Index of industrial production, durable manufac4
(31,71)
tures(M).-Source 4
(20,63)
105 Money supply M l in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
Index of industrial production, nondurable manuand 4
(31,71)
factures (M).-Source4
(20,63)
Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
106
and 4
(13,31,71)
Index of industrial production, consumer goods
(M).-Source4
(22,65)
107 Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l
(Q).—Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source4
(24,67)
Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)
Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order, book value (EOM).—Source
2
(27,68)

108>

Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
4
(35,73)
n o

m

Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72)

80.

Corporate profits after tax with inventory valua- 112. Net change in business loans (M).-Sources 1, 4,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)
tion and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
dollars (Q).—Source 1
(29,69)
113, Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
Source 4
(32,72)
Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with

82.

Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing ( M ) . —
Source 4
(20,64)

84.

Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source
4
(20,64)

85.

Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4

86.

Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

87.

Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)




(31,71)

Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).—The Conference Board
(37,75)

966.

Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)

967.

Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)

968.

Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
42-82 industries (M).-Source 1 and Standard &
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)

970.

Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and
equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries
(Q).—Source 1
(38,76)

971.

Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

972.

Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting ( Q ) . Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)

973.

Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
trade-about 1,400 businessmen reporting ( Q ) Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)

Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)

Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)

inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)

965.

Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 ( M ) . —
Sources l a n d 4
(31,71)

79.

81.

964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)

114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
bills (M).—Source4
(34,72)
115

Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)

n g . Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
117

llg

'

Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)

119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4

(34,72)

974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
975.

Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)

115

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
976.

977.

978.

Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—
about 600 businessmen reporting ( Q ) . - D u n &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale t r a d e about 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade-about
400 businessmen reporting ( Q ) - D u n & Bradstreet
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

245.

Change in business inventories in current dollars

(Q).-Sourcel

(42,81)

30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars ( Q ) (26,42,68,81)

income (Q).-Source 1

213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q) .-Source 1

(40,80)

290.

Gross saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

292.

Personal saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1

(46,83)
(46,82)

293.

248.

Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)

295.

Business saving (Q).-Source 1

298.

Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1
(46,83)

249.

Gross private residential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)

II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310.

250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1

(44,82)

Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)

252.

Exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Sou r e e l
(44,82)

(30,47,70,83)

Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

(Q).—Source 1

256.

(Q).-Source 1

257.

(44,82)

(44,82)

320.

(44,82)

330. Producer price index, all commodities (M). Source
3
(48,85)
331. Producer price index, crude materials for further
processing (M).-Source 3

Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).—Source 3
(48,86)

333.

Producer price index, capital equipment (M).
Source 3
(48,86)

334.

Producer price index, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)

335.

Producer price index, industrial commodities

261. Government purchases of goods and services in

223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
(40,63)

262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(40,80)

current dollars (Q).—Source 1
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

lars ( Q ) . - S o u r c e 1
231.

vices in 1982 dollars ( Q ) . - S o u r c e 1

232.
233.

Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)

235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
(41,81)

(43,81)

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and serSource 1

services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1

(43,81)

267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

(43,81)

268. State and local government purchases of goods and

280.

Compensation of employees (Q) — Source 1

Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)

349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q) .—Sou rce 3 (50,88)

283.

(45,82)

Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
national income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).—Source 1

(45,82)

adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

240.

Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q) .-Source 1
(42,81)




(49,87)

282.

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption

116

nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source
3
(49,88)
348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).-Source 3
(50,88)

Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)

services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Sourcel
(47,83)

239.

242.

(49,87)

266. State and local government purchases of goods and 345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,

Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)

Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

341.

(47,83)

238.

241.

(48,85)

payrolls (M).-Source 3

vices as a percent of gross national product (Q).—

237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services ( Q ) . - S o u r c e 1

(M).-Source3

(43,81)

340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
263. Federal Government purchases of goods and sernonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural

(41,80)

Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars
(Q).~Source 1
(41,80)

(43,81)

vices in current dollars (Q).-Source 1

227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dol-

(43,81)

(48,85)

332.

260. Government purchases of goods and services in

220. National income in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(45,82)

Consumer price index for all urban consumers
(M).—Source 3
(49,59,84,95)

322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
food (M).-Source 3
(49,84)

Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

(Q).-Sourcel

Implicit price deflator for gross national product
(Q). - S o u r e e l
(48,84)

311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).==Source 1
(48,84)

Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sourcesland2
(40,80)

224. Disposable personal income in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(40,80)

Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).Sourcel
(47,83)

Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
(Q).-Sou r e e l
(44,82)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
200.

289.

247.

251.

II—A. National Income and Product
Source 1

243.

286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua-

358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,88)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business
sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,88)

II—C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
(18,51,62,89)

tion and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)

441.

Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3

(5189)

442.

Civilian employment (M).

(51,89)

287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua-

444.

tion and capital consumption adjustments as a
percent of national income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)

445.

Number unemployed, females 20 years and over

288.

Net interest (Q).-Source 1

(45,82)

(M).-Source3

Source 3

(51,89)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers ( M ) . —
Source 3
(51,89)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3
(51,89)

II—D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1

570. Employment, defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct Nre employment (EOM).-US. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).-U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)

47. United States, index of industrial production ( M ) . Source4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
320. United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723. Canada, index of industrial production ( M ) . —
Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production ( M ) . Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products ( M ) . Source 2
(54,91)

502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)

It—E. U.S. International Transactions

510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q) Source 1
(52,90)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M) .—Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)

511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)

(52,90)

512. State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Sourcel
(52,90)

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
.
(56,92)

517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
(56,92)
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Direc- 612. General imports (M).-Source 2
torate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work
performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(53,90)
557. Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).—Source 4
(54,91)
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book
value (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)




616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1

(57,93)

620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1

(57,93)

622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1

(57,93)
651. Income on U.S. investme/
1
652. Income on foreign invest
(Q).—Source 1

-Source
(57,93)
1 States
(57,93)

667. Balance on goods and

>urce 1
(57,93)

668. Exports of goods and se
under U.S. military grants ((

ransfers
(57,93)

669. Imports of goods and i

>urce 1
(57,93)

II—F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation

(13,28,59,69,96)

732. United Kingdom, consumer price index ( M ) . ~
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, consumer price index ( M ) . —
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Toronto Stock
Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices ( M ) . —
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

(59,96)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices ( M ) - Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)

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