Full text of Business Conditions Digest : July 1986
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary Robert Ortner, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Allan H. Young, Director Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections Fellks Tamm, Editor This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are— Barry A. Beck man—Technical supervision and review Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes Mary D. Young—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541) The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources at the back of this report. This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting of the following persons: Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget Lincoln F. Anderson, Council of Economic Advisers John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce ABOUT THIS REPORT BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides a monthly look at many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. The original BCD, which began publication in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and prospects. The report's contents were based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its usefulness to analysts using other approaches to business conditions analysis. Principal additions to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's present title was adopted. The dominant feature of the current BCD is the cyclical indicators section, in which each business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its behavior at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of presentation is explained in the introductory text which begins on page 1. Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic, $55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available on request. Address correspondence Most of the data contained in this report also are published by their source agencies. A series finding guide and a complete list of series titles and sources can be found at the back of the report. Cyclical Indicators are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process and by their average timing at business cycle peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks and troughs combined. These indicators have been selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they also have proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Othor Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. They include selected components of the national income and product accounts; measures of prices, wages, and productivity; measures of the labor force, employment, and unemployment; economic data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with major foreign countries. concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents. BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST New Features and Changes for This Issue iii METHOD OF PRESENTATION Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Part I. Cyclical Indicators Part II. Other Important Economic Measures How To Read Charts How To Locate a Series Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 1 1 1 1 4 5 5 6 BCII JULY 1986 Data Through June Volume 26, Number 7 PART I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A3 A4 COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Composite Indexes Leading Index Components Coincident Index Components Lagging Index Components Bl B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Employment and Unemployment Production and Income Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit CT C2 C3 DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components Rates of Change Al The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds 10 12 14 15 60 — — — .16 19 21 23 26 28 31 61 63 64 65 68 69 71 36 — 39 74 77 — for printing this periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through September 30, 1986. ItCII PART II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES JS1. _A2_ A5 -Afi. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GNP and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Government Purchases of Goods and Services Foreign Trade National Income and Its Components Saving . . Shares of GNP and National Income Chart 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 Table 80 80 81 81 82 82 82 83 48 49 84 87 51 89 52 53 90 90 56 57 92 93 58 59 59 94 95 96 PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY JIL B2 Price Movements Wages and Productivity LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Civilian Labor Force and Major Components GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Receipts and Expenditures Defense Indicators U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Merchandise Trade Goods and Services Movements INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Industrial Production Consumer Prices Stock Prices PART III. APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators) QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators) B. Current Adjustment Factors C. Historical Data for Selected Series 97 98 D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide") E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (April 1986 issue) G. Experimental Data and Analyses Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide Titles and Sources of Series 104 105 109 113 Readers are invited to submit comments and suggestions concerning this publication. Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230 NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE A limited number of changes are made from time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic research, newly available time series, and Changes in this issue are as follows: revisions made by 1. Series based on data from the national income and product accounts (NIPA) have been revised by the source agency for the period 1983 to date to reflect the incorporation of new source data and new seasonal adjustment factors. Revised data are shown in this issue for series 16, 18, 22, 30, 34-36, 49-53, 55, 59, 62, 64, 68, 70, 79-81, 86-89, 95, 107, 108, and 223 in section I-B; all series in section II-A; series 310 and 311 in section II-B; and series 500-502, 510-512, 564, and 565 in section II-D. Revised data for other series affected by these revisions (series 20, 27, 57, and 77) will be shown in a future issue. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Cotrcnerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Wealth Division. 2, Data on the value of construction put in place have been revised by the source agency for the period 1964 to date. This revision reflects (a) a change in the base year for the constant-dollar series from 1977 to 1982, (b) reclassification of certain categories of construction, (c) historical revisions of data, and (d) computation of new seasonal adjustment factors. For use in BC£, data for the period prior to 1964 have been adjusted, where necessary, to the level of the revised data. These revisions have been incorporated into the data for series 20 (contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars) and series 69 (manufacturers1 machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures). Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics Division. (Continued on page iv.) The August issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on September 3. III source agencies in concept, composition, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may result in revisions of data, additions or deletions of series, changes in placement of series in relation to other series, changes in composition of indexes, etc. 3. The series on change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (series 33) and change in business and consumer credit outstanding (series 111) have been revised for the period 1983 to date to reflect the annual updating of data on mortgages held by savings and loan associations* In addition, for series 111, the Bureau of Economic Analysis has introduced an adjustment (beginning in 1983) to remove the effect on the series of shifts in the legal structure of institutions providing mortgage loans. The adjustment is needed because, in recent years, shifts in legal structure — such as conversion from a savings and loan association into a savings bank -- have become increasingly frequent. Data needed to adjust the series are from the Federal Home Loan Bank Board. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division, 4. The series on productivity and costs (series 26, 63, 345, 346, 358, and 370) have been revised by the source agency for the period 1947 to date. These revisions incorporate revised output and compensation measures reported in the NIPA revisions (see item 1, above) and recently revised data on employment and average weekly hours (see item 1 on page iii of the June 1986 BCD). Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology, Division of Productivity Research. 5. Revisions shown in the June 1986 BCD for the series on U.S. international transactions have been extended back to earlier years. Revised data are shown in this issue for the following periods: Series 618 and 622 — 1967 through 1968; Series 620 -- IV Q 1971; Series 651 — 1960 through 1968; Series 652 — 1960 through 1968 and IV Q 1979; Series 667 and 669 — 1960 through 1981; Series 668 ~ 1960 through 1968, 1975, and 1980. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Balance of Payments Division. 6. Appendix C contains historical data for series 330-335. 7. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 21, 30, 50, and 82. IV METHOD OF PRESENTATION This report is organized into two major parts. Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time series which have been found to conform well to broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are individual indicators, the rest are related analytical measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes, and rates of change. Part II T Other Important Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are valuable to business analysts and forecasters but which do not conform well enough to business cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a few exceptions: Four series which are included in part I are also shown in part II to complete the systematic presentation of certain sets of data, such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest section of part II consists of quarterly series from the national income and product accounts; other sections relate to prices, labor force, government and defense-related activities, and international transactions and comparisons. The two parts are further divided into sections (see table of contents), and each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction. Data are shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts begin with 1959, but those for the composite indexes and their components (part I, section A) begin with 1950, and a few charts use a two-panel format which covers only the period since 1974. Except for section F in part II, charts contain shading which indicates periods of recession in general business activity. The tables contain data for only the last few years. The historical data for the various time series are contained in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series. Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, specific cycle turning dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other information of analytical interest. An index appears at the back of each issue. It should be noted that the series numbers used are for identification purposes only and do not reflect precise relationships or order. However, all series considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in the range 1 to 199. Seasonal Adjustments Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is. sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1. The charts in this report generally include centered MCD moving averages for those series with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Reference Turning Dates The historical business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until after both the new reference peak and the new reference trough bounding the shaded area have been designated. The historical reference turning dates are subject to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed as a result of revisions in important economic time series. The dates shown in this publication for the 1948-70 time period are those determined by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82. Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Business cycles have been defined as sequences of expansion and contraction in various economic processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment, income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive, business cycles of historical experience have been definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in duration and intensity, reflecting changes in economic systems, conditions, policies, and outside disturbances. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is the cyclical indicators approach. This approach identifies certain economic time series as tending to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad movements in aggregate economic activity. Such indicators have been selected and analyzed by NBER in a series of studies published between 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a neW comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research staff. The present format and content of part I jof BCD are based on the results of that study/ Section A. Composite Indexes and Their Components All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, conformity to business expansions and contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme was developed and used to assess each series by all of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced a new list of indicators classified by economic process and typical timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below relating to section B.) This information, particularly the scores relating to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the selection of series to be included in the composite indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring series from many different economic-process groups and combine those with similar timing behavior, using their overall performance scores as weights. Because they use series of historically1 tested usefulness and given timing characteristics (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), with diversified economic coverage and a minimum of duplication, composite indexes give more reliable signals over time than do any of the individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the 1 Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks \ . 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) Economic \iProcess CyclicalX. Timing X. LEADING (L) INDICATORS (61 series) Marginal employment adjustments (3 series) Job vacancies ; (2 series) S Comprehensive • employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (24 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (19 series) Comprehensive unemployment (2 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (8 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (19 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) Orders and deliveries (6 series) Consumption and trade (2 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (5 series) Residential construction (3 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Inventories on hand and on order (1 series) Stock prices (1 series) Sensitive commodity prices (2 series) Profits 8fld profit margins (7 series) Cashflows (2series) Money (5 serifs) Credit Hows (5 series) Credit difficulties (2s*rm) Bank reserves (2 series) Intwtst rates (1 series) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) Industrial production (4 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Business investment expenditures (6 series) Business investment expenditures (1 series) Consumption and trade (1 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Vtkicjty of money (2 series) Interest rates (2 series) Inventories on hand and on order (4 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Interest rites (4 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) Sensitive commodity prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (1 series) Interest rates ( i series) B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs x. N. Economic Process Cyclical^ Timing N . 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (19 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Marginal employment adjustments (1 series) Industrial production (1 series) Orders and deliveries (5 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (4 series) Residential construction (3 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Stock prices ( i series) Sensitive commodity prices (3 series) Profits and profit margins (6 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (4 series) Credit flows (5 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Marginal employment adjustments (2 series) Comprehensive employment (4 series) Comprehensive output and income {4 series) Industrial production (3 series) Capacity utifeation (2 series) Consumption and trade (3 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Profits and profit margins (2 series) Money (1 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Orders and deliveries U series) Business investment commitments (2 series) Business investment expenditures {7 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Interest rates (8 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) LEADING (L) INDICATORS (47 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (41 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (5 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (1 series) Inventories on hand and on order (5 series) Bank reserves (1 series) independent measurement error and other "noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly series that are acceptable in terms of relatively prompt availability and reasonable accuracy. The main composite indexes are distinguished by their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, series which historically reached their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the corresponding business cycle turns. There is an index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting of series which historically reached their turning points at about the same time as the general economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which includes series that typically reached their peaks and troughs later than the corresponding business cycle turns. The leading index contains series with long as well as short leads, but each series leads on the average over time and shows a frequency of leads at the individual turns exceeding that attributable to chance, given the historical distribution of cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948, leads were generally more frequent and longer at peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags were generally more frequent and longer at troughs than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and classifying the indicators takes into account these well-established differences in timing. Consequently, rough coincidences include short leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through + 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and plus denotes lags in months.) indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a series known to have a useful pattern of early cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of the composite indexes show the length, in months, of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference turning dates covered. The next set of data consists of series included in the principal composite indexes. These are the 12 components of the leading index, the 4 components of the coincident index, and the 6 components of the lagging index. Following the title of each series, its typical timing is identified by three letter symbols in a small box. The first of these letters refers to the timing of the given indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a tendency to roughly coincide with the business cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency to lag. Since these series have been selected for the consistency of their timing at both peaks and troughs, all components of the leading index are denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that these classifications are based on limited evidence, namely the performance of the indicators during the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which included five peaks and five troughs. While the timing classifications are expected to agree with the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will not necessarily hold invariably in every instance. The timing of the series in the period since 1970 can be determined by inspection of the charts, where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference cycle chronology. August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58, February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation distinguishes seven major economic processes and four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells identify subgroups of the given economic process with the given timing characteristic. The number of series in each such group is given in parentheses following the title. Complete information on how individual indicators are classified by timing at peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected measures and scores, is provided in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators, Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from numerous components. How the individual components of an aggregate move over a given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index which indicates the percentage of components that are rising (with half of the unchanged components considered rising). Cyclical changes in these diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, they are computed from changes measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter) spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans. Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes are shown for the component series included in each of the three composite indexes and for the components of some of the aggregate series shown in section B. Diffusion measures can be derived not only from actual data but also from surveys of anticipations For purposes of constructing a composite index, or intentions. Indexes based on responses of each component series is standardized: The monthbusiness executives about their plans and to-month percent changes in a given series are divided by the long-run average (without regard to Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process expectations for several operating variables are presented, along with the corresponding indexes sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile series are prevented from dominating the index. This section covers 112 individual time series, based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion The coincident index is calculated so that its long- including the 22 indicators used in the series. term trend (since 1948) equals the average of the construction of the composite indexes. The peak This section also records rates of change for the trends of its four components. This trend, which is and trough timing classifications are shown on the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be charts in the same manner as described above, but lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate viewed as a linear approximation to the secular this section includes series with different timing at economic activity: GNP in constant dollars movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours economic activity. The indexes of leading and lag- timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified in nonagricultural establishments, and personal ging indicators have been adjusted so that both as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of their trends and their average month-to-month measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for percent changes (without regard to sign) are ap- are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at 1-quarter spans. proximately equal to those of the coincident index. turning points of the given type. Eight series are Although movements in diffusion indexes and in (For a more detailed description of the method of unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 rates of change for the same aggregates are constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984 series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but generally positively correlated, these two measures Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.) different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series present information about two related but distinct In addition to these principal composite indexes, that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes measure the prevailing direction or scope of differentiated according to cyclical timing, there is included in the list of cyclical indicators. The classification scheme which groups the change, while rates of change measure the degree are five indexes based on leading indicators which have been grouped by economic process. Taken indicators of this section by economic process and as well as the overall direction. As is the case for together, these additional indexes include all 12 cyclical timing is summarized in the two diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates component series of the overall leading index, plus tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is of change tend to lead those of the corresponding a few related series. Also shown in this section is based on the observed behavior of the series at five indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead the ratio of the index of roughly coincident business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, at the business cycle turns as well. Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES This part is divided into six sections which cover a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series measuring various aspects of economic activity. Some of these series are very comprehensive, pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others have to do with particular sectors or markets, and still others relate to U.S. international transactions or to selected foreign countries. The represented variables include incomes, outputs, and expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; labor resources; government receipts, expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few key foreign countries. Section A. National Income and Product The national income and product accounts, compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy. Section Al shows the gross national product, final sales, and personal and disposable personal income. The four major components of the gross national product—personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, government purchases of goods and services, and net exports of goods and services—are presented in sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in section A are presented in current as well as constant dollars. There are also a few per capita series. The national income and product accounts, briefly defined below, are described more fully in the Survey of Current Business, Part I, January 1976. Gross national product (GNP) is the market value of final goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by residents of the United States, before deduction of allowances for the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the most comprehensive measure of aggregate economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in business inventories. Personal income is the income received by persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments, less personal contributions for social insurance. Disposable personal income is the personal income available for spending or saving. It consists of personal income less personal taxes and nontax payments to government. Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is goods and services purchased by individuals, operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included. Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed capital goods purchased by private business and nonprofit institutions and the value of the change in the physical volume of inventories held by private business. The former include all private purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used goods are also included. Government purchases of goods and services (A4) is the compensation of government employees and purchases from business and from abroad. It excludes transfer payments, interest paid by government, and subsidies. It includes gross investment by government enterprises but excludes their current outlays. It includes net purchases of used goods and excludes sales and purchases of land and financial assets. Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports less imports of goods and services. Exports are part of the national production; imports are not, but are included in the components of GNP and are therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. international transactions is provided in section E. National income (A6) is the incomes that originate in the production of goods and services attributable to labor and property supplied by residents of the United States. Thus, it measures the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of employees, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, corporate profits, and net interest. Saving (A7) is the difference between income and expenditures during an accounting period. Total gross saving includes personal saving, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate profits and capital consumption allowances), and government surplus or deficit. Shares of GNP and national income (A8).-The major expenditure components of GNP (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as percentages of GNP, and the major income components of national income (compensation of employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as percentages of national income. Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity The important data on price movements include the monthly consumer and producer price indexes and their major components. Based largely on these series are the quarterly price indexes from the national income and product accounts, notably the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights reflecting the changing proportions of different expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are presented for the period since 1974. The group of series on wages and productivity consists of data on average hourly earnings and average hourly compensation (including earnings and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, output per hour of work in the business sector, and rates of change for most of these measures. Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment This section contains measures of the civilian labor force and its major components: Total numbers of employed and unemployed persons, The number of unemployed is subdivided into selected categories defined by sex, age, and class of worker. Also included are data on participation rates for a few principal segments of the labor force. Section D. Government Activities Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels: (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local government. Also shown is a selection of series from the discontinued Defense Indicators, These series measure defense activities which influence short-term changes in the national economy. Included are series relating to obligations, contracts, orders, production, shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment. These series are grouped according to the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense order-production-delivery process. Series measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders, are classified as "advance measures of defense activity." Series measuring activities which tend to coincide with production, such as employment, and activities which usually follow production, such as shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final measures of defense activity." Section E. U.S. International Transactions This group includes monthly series on exports (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a few selected components of these aggregates, Also shown are the balances between receipts and expenditures for goods and services, merchandise, and investment income. Section F. International Comparisons This section is designed to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which we have important trade relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1974) provide important measures of the rates of inflation in the major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also shown beginning in 1974) tend to be significant as leading indicators. HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded area) as designated by NBER. Basic Data Arabic numberindicates latest month for which data are plotted, ("9" = September) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or moving averages.) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where a moving average is plotted. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Parallel lines indicates a break in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.). Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A " is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-1" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles in that distance, etc. Arabic number indicates latest month for whfch data are used in computing the indexes. Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over 1-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. Diffusion indexes and rates of change are centered within the spans they cover. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over various spans. Rates of Change Solid line indicates percent changes over 3- or 6-month spans. Arabic number indicates latest month used in computing the changes. Broken line indicates percent changes over 1-month spans. Broken line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 1-quarter spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 3- or 4-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter used in com* puting the changes. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES 1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, o r 2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of the report where series are listed numerically according to series numbers within each of the report's sections. Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data' Unit of measure Series title and timing classification1 Percent change Annual average 1985 4th Q 1985 1st Q 1986 2dQ Apr. May 1986 June 1966 4th Q to 1st Q Apr. to May 1986 May to June 1986 -0.1 -0.9 0.8 - 1 . 7 0.3 -0. -0.7 0. 1 0 2 - 1 - 1 . - 0 . 0 . 1 . 3 4 2 7 0 . 3 0 . 1 N A - 0 . 5 0. 0.9 3.5 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -2.1 0. 0. 1.8 1st Q to 2dQ 1986 I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A l . Composite Indexes 910. 920, 930. 940. Twelve leading indicators Four roughly coincident indicators Six lagging Indicators Ratio, coincident index to lagging index Leading Indicator Subgroups: 914. Capital investment commitments 915. Inventory investment and purchasing 916. Profitability 917. Money and financial flows 165. 154.5 117.3 131.8 169.1 160.3 127.0 126.3 172.3 161.8 129.9 124.5 1 1 1 1 7 6 3 2 4 2 2 3 . . , . 9 9 5 0 178.3 163.9 131.8 124.4 1 7 8 . 3 1 6 5 . 3 1 3 1 . 4 125.8 178.1 163.8 132.4 123.7 1 1 1 1 ..do.., ..do.., 110.3 105.3 110.8 136.4 110.3 102.0 115.2 138.8 110.2 102.4 115.5 141.2 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 4 0 3 9 0 . . . . 2 3 5 8 110.5 103.4 NA 141.5 111.3 103.6 121.9 140.1 109.9 103.2 122.1 142.5 1 1 0 . 2 1 0 3 . 3 N A 1 4 1 . 8 L.L.L.... Hours do L.C.L. L,C,L... Thousands 40.7 3.4 366 40.5 3.3 383 40.8 3.5 376 40.7 3.4 384 40.7 3.4 377 40.7 3.4 374 40.7 3.4 378 40.6 3.3 378 0. 0. - 1 . 1 - 0 . 2 - 0 . 1 0 . 0.458 131 0.497 139 0.522 143 0.509 141 0.471 134 0.471 132 0.445 128 0.497 - 0 . 0 2 6 - 3 . 0 0 . 0 5 2 1 0 . 2 185.44 185.71 185.82 105.54 106.04 105.67 99.40 99.84 99.78 25,028 24,954 25,038 185.75 105.95 99.91 24,964 185.56 1 0 6 . 5 1 9 9 . 8 2 2 4 , 8 5 9 W.I... CCC... Lg.Lg.Lg.... L.L.L.... L,L,L . ,. L.l.L, L.L.L, .. L.L.L., . 1967-100.. ....do ....do ....do do.., 7 6 3 2 8 2 1 3 . . . . 6 6 5 7 . 5 . . 0 . 2 1 . 9 0.6 -0.5 1.1 0 . 1 N A 0 . 5 B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process B l . Employment and Unemployment Marginal Employment Adjustments: • 1 . Average weekly hours, mfg 21, Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.1 •5. Average weekly Initial claims (inverted*) Job Vacancies: 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3.. ,. L,Lg,U... Ratio . L,Lg,U... 1967 = 100.. 46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Comprehensive Employment: 48. Employee hours in nonagrlcultural establishments 42, Persons engaged in nonagrlcultural activities •41. Employees on nonagriculturai payrolls 40. Employees in goods-producing industries 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age1 ... U.C.C.. A.r.( bil. hrs.. Millions do Thousands.... ... L,C,U... .. u,cc... .. ccc... 177.35 101.68 94.46 24,730 182.30 184.60 103.97 1 0 4 . 9 0 97.69 9 8 . 6 7 25,054 2 4 , 9 3 7 0 0 0 - 0 . . 3 . 1 . 3 -0.013 -0.038 -1.4 -5.0 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 -0.3 Percent 58.79 59.38 59.61 59.74 59.83 59.70 59.77 6 0 . 0 2 0.07 0.25 0.13 0.09 Thousands.., Percent ...do Weeks Percent 8 , 5 3 9 7 . 5 2.8 18.2 2.4 8,312 7.2 2.8 1 5 . 6 2 . 0 3,162 7.0 2.7 15.5 1.9 8,259 7.1 2.8 14.9 1.9 8,446 7.2 2.8 14.6 1 . 9 8,342 7.1 2.8 14.3 1.8 8.554 7.3 2.8 1 4 . 4 1 . 9 8,443 7.1 2.8 - 2 . - 0 . 0 . - 0 . - 0 . 1 0 0 - 5 - 0 -1.2 -0.1 -0.1 3.9 0. -2.3 -0.1 0. 2.0 0. 3489.9 2877.1 3585.2 2962.8 3622.3 2982.2 3655.9 3665.7 3018.2 3065.2 3078.7 3065.0 3051.9 -0.4 0.9 1.2 0.3 1.6 2455.6 2527.4 2547.1 2574.4 2616.2 2 6 3 0 . 0 2615.0 2603.7 -0.6 -0.4 1.1 1.6 529.2 538.0 539.5 541.4 541.7 544.0 542.8 538.2 -0.2 -0.8 0.4 0.1 121.8 124.8 122.5 1503.1 124.5 128.2 125.6 1 5 3 3 . 2 125.4 128.9 127.2 541.7 125.6 129.0 128.6 1563.6 124.7 127.7 129.5 1565.7 1 2 5 . 2 1 2 8 . 5 1 2 9 . 3 1 2 4 . 7 1 2 7 . 8 1 2 9 . 7 124.1 126.7 129.6 -0.4 -0.5 0.3 - 0 . 5 - 0 . 9 - 0 . 1 0.2 0.1 1.1 1.4 -0.7 -1.0 0,7 0.1 80.8 82.3 80.3 80.3 80.1 79.5 79.9 79.4 79.1 78.3 78.6 77.9 -0.3 -0.4 - 0 . 6 - 0 . 4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 103.75 102.62 104.77 96.87 95.64 97.64 -1.1 -1.3 2 . 1 2 . 1 1.4 1.6 -2.9 -3.3 -3.9 1.79 -0.3 5 0.8 2.05 0.3 -5 0.8 3.33 1 . 9 3 - 2 . 3 - 3 . 1 4 -0.8 4 -1.8 -1.9 -0.4 0.7 0.4 N A N A - 0 . 2 0 . 2 0 . - 0 0 0 1 1 - 0 4 .. U,Lg,U... Comprehensive Unemployment: ... L,Lg,U..., 37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted4) .... L,tg,U..., 43, Unemployment rate (inverted')3 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.4)1.... ... L,Lg,U. .. Lg,Lg,U-... •91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted') .. Lg,Lg,Lg.... 44, Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.')3 15.2 2.0 5 2 7 1 . . . . . 3 2 6 1 B2. Production and Income Comprehensive Output and Income; 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars 52. Personal income in 1982 dollars *51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction Industrial Production: •47. Industrial production 73. Industrial production, durable mfrs.... 74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars C,C,C... A.r.,bil.dol do CCC,.,. CCC... do CCC... do... CCC. 1977 = 100.. . CCC C,L,L. .. . CCC... Capacity Utilization: 82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3 L,C,U.... Percent do L,C,U..., 79.5 78.7 79.2 78.3 -0.4 B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Orders and Deliveries: L,LhL... Bil.dol 6. Mfrs.1 new orders, durable goods 100.56 ...do L.L.L.... 7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods 95.73 *8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods ...do and materials 82.28 ...do 25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3 .. L.L.L.. 2.11 96. Mfrs.1 unfilled orders, durable goods' L,Lg,U.. Bil. dol.( EOP... 345.44 . L.L.L.. Percent *32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 (u) 61 104.30 97.93 05.28 98.36 84.60 0.63 353.04 45 86.28 -1.15 353.04 45 Consumption and Trade: 56. Manufacturing and trade sales •57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars 75. Industrial production, consumer goods 54. Sales of retail stores 59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles... 58. Index of consumer sentiment ( u ) 106.80 103.71 99.98 96.72 85.02 87.01 87.03 83.67 2.18 -0.96 -2.84 -1.05 359.59 356.69 356.74 355.70 48 52 55 50 Bil. dol do 977 = 100 Bil, dol do A.r.bil.dol IQ 1966=100 411.30 395.64 118.2 07.76 102.54 105.7 97.5 424.55 408.26 120.7 114.50 106.96 115.3 93.2 • 30.26 12.17 122.6 15.69 07.35 111.6 91 . 1 • 26.35 • 1 3 . 4 4 1 2 3 . 2 1 7 . 0 8 0 8 . 9 1 1 1 1 . 1 9 5 . 5 NA NA 124.0 18.31 11.44 117.8 96.8 28.46 22.64 124.4 17.72 11 .16 L,L,L... 1967 = 100... L,L,L... Number 121.3 2,922 121.2 55,780 120.5 7,785 1 2 0 . 5 9 , 1 6 5 121.0 NA L,L,L... Bil. dol.. . CCC... .. CCC... , CtLtC... . C,L,U.... .. U.L.U.... .. L,C,C... .. L.L.L.... 96.2 420.74 414.54 123.9 118.52 111.60 84.35 1.00 356.69 50 HA NA 1 2 3 . 7 1 8 . 7 0 1 1 . 5 6 . . . . . . . 9 3 5 2 5 4 8 0 1 2 6 1 N A N A . 6 . 1 . 3 . 0 . 4 9 4 . 8 9 9 . 3 - 1 . 5 4.7 1 2 3 . 1 9 , 8 8 0 1 1 9 . 9 1 1 9 . 9 - 2 . 6 N A 0 . N A 0. 2.4 0 . 4 N A - 2 . 1 3.4 -7.3 0.4 - 0 . 1 - 0 . 2 5 . 5 2 . 3 -6.6 -4.8 4.8 -3.6 B4. Fixed Capital Investment Formation of Business Enterprises: •12. Net business formation 13. New business incorporations Business Investment Commitments: 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment •20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars -. 24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods 27. Mfrs.' new orders In 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods L,L,L. L,L,L. L,L,L... 31.32 31.98 32.75 3 0 . 3 5 30.48 3 0 . 5 7 2 9 . 9 2 ..do.. ..do.. 31.78 26.95 32.60 27.19 3 3 . 0 9 2 7 . 8 2 3 0 . 9 1 2 6 . 4 9 31 .63 26.35 3 1 . 0 7 2 6 . 1 8 3 1 . 0 5 2 6 . 1 4 3 2 . 7 7 2 6 . 7 4 do... 27.66 28.26 2 8 . 6 4 2 7 . 6 1 27.99 27.73 2 9 . 0 6 2.0 2 . 3 - 0 . 5 1.4 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data3 - Series title and timing classification1 of measure Percent change Annual average 1984 1986 May to June 1986 -9.0 -1.1 138.0 -3.0 -0.5 NA -1.1 1,845 142.9 -7.9 -5.1 Apr. 4th Q 1985 1st Q 1986 1985 Apr. 2dQ 1986 May 1986 1986 June 1986 to May 4th Q to 1st Q 1986 1st Q to 2dQ 1986 e 1 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con. B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con. Business Investment Commitments—Con.: 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space l,C,U.... Mil.sq.ft 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg U,Lg,U.... Bil.dol Ril Hnl PHP Business Investment Expenditures: 61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment....: C.Lg.Lg.... A.r., bil. dol 69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures C,Lg,Lg.... do 76. Industrial production, business equipment C,Lg,U.... 1977=100 86. Nonresidents fixed investment in 1982 dollars C,Lg,C... A.r., bil.dol Residential Construction Commitments and Investment: 28. New private housing units started •29. Building permits, new private housing units 89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars L.L.L.... Ax, thousands.. L.L.L.... 1967=100...... L,L,L... A r bil dol 78,07 29.36 86.42 27.22 94,58 87.95 27.19 94.58 73.01 24.50 92.63 354,44 3 8 6 , 4 1 3 9 7 . 7 4 376.08 94.37 375.02 401.80 414.60 3 9 5 . 2 0 134.9 141.2 141.0 140.9 458.2 457.8 416.5 476.9 78.95 NA NA 84.26 76.71 75.88 -17.0 -9.9 - 2 .1 8.1 NA NA 9 11 97 -5.4 3.0 61 -4.7 0.1 -4.0 NA - 1 .2 -0.7 69 76 86 -0.8 0.2 12.7 5.6 2 .6 -4.5 -0.7 3 6 28 29 89 387.42 402.84 3 9 0 . 8 4 139.3 140.3 1 3 9 . 6 NA NA 454.8 1,750 134.8 181 .4 1,742 138.1 191 .8 1,773 138.5 181 .5 1,998 146.3 186 .3 1,908 145.3 193 .1 2,019 150.3 1,860 142.6 B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment Inventory Investment: 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3 •36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (smoothed6)3 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value3 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value3 Inventories on Hand and on Order: 71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value* 70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars' 65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value5 •77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars3 78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value5 L,L,L... do 59.2 9.0 -5.2 39.9 19.6 L,L,L... L,L,L... do do 49.21 53.2 2.99 9.7 5.07 16.9 19.99 20.1 NA NA 29.67 5.1 12.95 -23.8 NA NA -16.72 -28.9 NA NA 14.92 3,2 NA NA 36 31 0.71 -0.31 0.07 0.02 NA -1.76 -1.39 NA 0.37 NA -0.05 NA 38 NA 588.60 586.61 NA 648.02 644.47 NA 87.80 87.66 NA NA NA -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 NA NA NA 0.9 1 .2 -0.8 NA NA NA 71 70 65 NA 1.55 NA 0 .02 NA 0.01 NA 77 NA 212.56 211 .17 NA -0.7 NA 0. NA 78 -0.41 225.0 0.25 -1.20 0.6 0.33 -1.20 1.7 0.51 -0.28 -1.9 -0.05 237.98 238.46 245.30 0 .2 2.9 L.L.L.... Bil. dol Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... do Lg,Lg,Lg.... do Lg,Lg,Lg.... Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 573.43 583.15 583.15 588.18 630.89 638.43 638.43 645.87 88.37 88.37 89.69 87.62 1.55 1.56 1.55 1.56 217.30 214.24 214.24 2 1 4 . 3 1 45.1 1.53 -20.3 30 B6. Prices. Costs, and Profits Sensitive Commodity Prices: 98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3 23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials© •99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3 L,L,L... Percent U,L,L... 1967=100 L,L,L... Percent Stock Prices: •19. Stock prices, 500 common s t o c k s © U.L.... 1941-43=10... Profits and Profit Margins: 16. Corporate profits after tax 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars 79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj 80 do in 1982 dollars 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3 26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol do L,L,L... do L,C,L... LC L do L,L,L... Cents 1977 — 100 L,Lrl 140.3 135.3 169.3 164.7 4.6 99.0 131.4 123.1 188.9 181.0 3.8 98 .8 139.4 130.1 189.2 180 .2 3.6 98.2 135.2 124.8 207.3 196.6 3.6 99.0 Cash Flows: 34. Corporate net cash flow 15 Cnrnorate net cash flow in 1982 dollars L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol LL L do 350.4 316.3 376.0 317.1 389.4 329.4 Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 63. Unit labor cost, business sector Lg,Lg,lg.... 1977 = 100 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfirtancial corporations Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. a) Actual data Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977=100 •b) Actual data as percent of trend3 L g , l * U » - Percent 64. Compensation of employees as percent of do national income3 Lg,Lg,Lg.... -0.37 278.9 -0.19 160.46 -0.2 2 244.8 -0.42 -0.01 235.5 -0.21 1 .08 -3.9 0.06 98 23 99 11.7 9.4 19 NA NA NA NA NA 99.1 -3.0 -4.1 9.6 9.1 0. 0 .8 NA NA NA NA NA 0 .1 16 18 79 80 15 26 380.9 325.2 NA NA -2.2 - 1 .3 NA -0.29 231.1 -0.26 0.79 222.1 -0.2 0 186.84 196.96 219.96 2 4 0 . 5 8 1.99 219.9 -0.59 0.79 221.3 -0.26 NA 34 35 159.9 166.1 167.3 167.0 167 . 4 -0.2 0.690 0.708 0.716 0.721 NA 0.7 NA 68 134.7 88.2 137.3 85.0 138.3 83.9 138.6 82.8 138.4 81 . 6 0.2 -1.1 -0.1 - 1 .2 62 62 73 0 73.5 73.7 73.7 NA NA 64 0.82 0.64 NA 4.4 3.0 85 102 104 105 106 138.0 81.7 138.4 81 .6 138.7 81.4 0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0. 0.2 63 B7. Money and Credit Money: "85. Change in money supply M l ' 102. Change in money supply M2J 104 Change in total liquid assets3 105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars •106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars _ Velocity of Money: 107. Ratio, GNP to money supply M l 1 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2' Credit 33. 112 113. •111. 110. Flows: Net change in mortgage debt3 Net change in business loans3 Net change in consumer installment credit3 Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3 Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers Credit Difficulties: 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted1)3 s do L,L,L... do L,C,U.,.. do L.L.L.. Bil. cfol L,L,L... do L,L,L... C,C,C... Ratio do C,Lg,C... L,L;L... A.r., bil.dol do L,L,L... do L,L,L... A.r., percent L,L,L... L,L,L... Ar bil dol L,Lrl— Percent, EOP ... 1 ,21 0.82 0.63 1.21 1 .93 0.48 1.45 0.96 0.77 1 .00 0.48 0.33 0.97 1.14 0.69 0.65 NA 0.82 NA 0.86 0.46 0.58 0.92 0.69 582.2 588.5 549.2 557.8 574.0 584.1 506.0 532.9 2116.6 2229.5 2259.4 2275.4 2 3 4 3 . 5 2328.4 2347.5 2354.7 6.914 1 .365 6.736 1.334 6.590 1.326 6.563 1.331 78.96 100.37 26.00 99.76 56.24 -8.02 22.76 53.11 63.36 81.52 74.71 77.34 6.8 12.8 10.5 15.8 56 9 9 2 6 75 93 965 41 504 26 2.09 2,32 2.32 2.41 6.365 1.316 1.313 1.304 NA NA - 7 . 6 6 -40.32 NA 51.55 4.8 2.7 NA NA 21.73 64.67 8.0 NA -4.40 NA 3.7 NA NA NA NA 1 .330 0.72 -0.14 0.24 1.8 0.8 -0.72 -0.23 NA 0.8 0.3 -0.017 -0.009 -0.19 -0.15 -0.40 1 .6 0.7 -0.027 - 0 . 1 9 8 0.005 - 0 . 0 1 5 NA - 7 4 . 3 7 NA 62.05 - 2 6 . 1 3 - 6 4 . 2 6 13.12 NA - 1 1 . 3 5 -6.0 5.3 -4.3 -47 .8 NA NA -0.09 107 108 NA 0.36 NA -2.0 NA 33 112 113 111 110 NA 39 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Percent change Basic data* Series title and timing classification Unit of measure 1 Annual average 1984 1985 4th Q 1985 1st Q 1986 2dQ 1986 Apr. May 1986 June 1986 Apr. to May 1986 May to June 1986 4th Q to 1st Q 1st Q to 2d Q I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B7. Money and Credit-Cm. Bank Reserves: 53. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 8 ® 94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 © Interest Rates: 119. Federal funds rate3 © 114, Discount rate on new Treasury b i l l s 3 © 116. Yield on new high-grade corporate b o n d s 1 © 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 0 117. Yield on municipal bonds5 © 118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages 3 © 67, Bank rates on short-term business loans3 © *109. Average prime rate charged by banks 8 © Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding* 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding *101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars *95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income3 L,U,U... Mil. dot.. ..do L,Lg,U.... l,Lg,Lg.... Percent do.. C,Lg,Lg.... do.. Lg,Lg,Lg.... do.. C.Lg.Lg.... do.. U,Lg,Lg.... do.. Lg.Lg.Lg.... do.. Lg,Lg,Lg.... do.. lg,Lg,lg.... Lg,Lg,lg,.., Bil. dol., EOP. Lg,Lg,lg.... Bil. dol lg,Lg,Lg.... Lg,Lg,Lg. do -3,046 3,730 -492 1,321 -502 1,415 230 80 5 5 857 -92 893 -38 876 145 803 -54 -17 -183 -73 -732 -610 225 52 10.22 9.57 13.37 11.99 10.10 13.82 12.02 12.04 8.10 7.49 11.75 10.75 9.10 12.24 9.74 9.93 8.10 7.15 11.03 10.08 8.68 11.28 9.68 9.50 7.83 6.89 9.68 8.90 7.53 10.38 9.29 9.37 .92 .13 .06 .95 .54 .95 8.13 8.61 6.99 6.06 8.71 6.85 6.12 9.09 8.02 7.54 10.07 6.92 6.21 9.39 8.23 7.87 9.98 -0.14 0.06 0.38 0.43 0.34 0.27 0.07 0.09 0.30 0,21 0.33 -0.09 -0.91 -0.76 -0.62 -0.95 0.01 8.83 8.50 8.50 -0.33 0. -0.27 -0.26 -1.35 -1.18 -1.15 -0.90 -0.39 -0.13 453.58 535.10 535.10 550.94 NA 555.24 560.62 NA 299.66 331.65 339.29 344.30 338.96 337.88 339.69 339.32 1.0 0.5 NA -0.1 3.0 1.5 NA -1.6 289.04 321.52 328.44 338.44 339.63 339.58 339.69 339.62 0. 0. 3.0 0.4 -0.76 Percent 13.45 15.02 15.64 15.94 NA 15.93 16.13 NA 0.20 NA 0.30 1982 = 100... 1967 = 100... Percent 1967=100... do 111.5 322.2 0.3 309.8 308.8 323.9 306.2 318.7 300.5 291.9 112.8 326.5 0.5 313.2 309.2 324.7 305 318.7 303.3 294.4 113.5 327.3 -0.2 314.6 304.5 318.9 289.8 314.1 303.8 288.7 114.1 326.5 0.1 316.0 298.7 311.5 272.9 306.6 305.5 283.0 325.3 -0.3 315.0 297.9 311 .3 269.7 307.0 305.3 281 .5 326.3 0.2 316.4 299.2 311 .7 ...do ...do 107.9 311.1 0.3 302,9 310.3 322.6 331 .0 320.0 294.1 290.4 275.9 306.3 305.5 283.8 327.9 0 316.7 298.9 311.6 273 .0 306.4 305.7 283 .6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.3 -0,2 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0. -1.1 0. 0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.2 -0.7 0.4 -1.5 -1.8 -5 -1.4 0.2 -1.9 0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.4 -1.9 -2.3 -5 -2.4 0.6 -2.0 1977 = 100... 160.7 165.5 166.9 168.0 168.8 168.4 168.6 169.4 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 94.6 167.5 97.7 105.2 104.1 94.1 173.6 97.8 105.4 104.0 94.0 176.2 98.0 106.4 104.5 94.3 177.6 98.4 107.3 105.6 95.4 178.5 99.3 107.7 106.1 95.4 95.4 95.3 -0.1 0.3 0.8 0,4 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 2.3 2.5 0.5 5.6 1 .5 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity B l . Price Movements 310. 320. 320c. 322. 330. 335. 331. 332. 333. 334. Implicit price deflator for gross national product Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) © . . . . Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3 Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food Producer price index (PPI), all commodities © PPI, industrial commodities © PPI, crude materials for further processing PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components...... PPI, capital equipment PPI, finished consumer goods ...do ,..do B2. Wages and Productivity 340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector... 370. Output per hour, business sector, 358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector , do do ...do... ..do.., ...do.. 0. C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 441. 442. 37. 444. 445. 446. 447. Civilian labor force Civilian employment Number of persons unemployed Number unemployed, males 20 years and over Number unemployed, females 20 years and over Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age Number unemployed, full-time workers Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates: 451. Males 20 years and over5 452. Females 20 years and over3 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age9 Millions ..do.. Thousands.. ...do ...do ...do Percent... ...do... ...do... 113.54 115.46 116.16 117.03 117.67 117.23 117.66 118.12 105.00 107.15 108.00 108.77 109.22 108.89 109.11 109.67 8,539 8,312 8,162 8,259 8,446 8,342 8,554 8,443 3,932 3,715 3,633 3,705 3,796 3,663 3,897 3,827 3,107 3,129 3,033 3,094 3,109 3,097 3,125 3,104 1,499 1,468 1,532 1,496 1,460 1,512 1,542 1,582 7,057 6,793 7,037 6,674 6,758 6,859 6,7 83 6,756 78.3 53.7 53.9 78.1 54.7 54.5 78.1 54.9 54.4 78.3 55.0 54.5 78.1 55.4 55.3 78,0 55.1 55.7 78.1 55.4 55.6 78.2 55.7 54.7 0.4 0.2 2.5 6.4 0.9 -3.2 3.7 0.4 0.5 -1 .3 -1.8 -0.7 -1.3 -4.0 0.7 0 .7 1 .2 2.0 2.0 -2.4 1 .3 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0 .1 0.3 -0,9 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.8 16.0 -0.7 -2.1 7.5 2.6 1.6 NA NA 3.8 NA NA 2.4 D. Government Activities D l . Receipts and Expenditures 500. 501. 502. 510. 511. 512. Federal Government surplus or deficit3 Federal Government receipts Federal Government expenditures State and local government surplus or deficit3 State and local government receipts State and local government expenditures 517. 525. 548. 557. 570. 564. Defense Department gross obligations incurred Defense Department prime contract awards Mfrs.' new orders, defense products Industrial production, defense and space equipment Employment, defense products industries Federal Government purchases for national defense A.r., bil.dol.. ...do.. ...do... ...do... ...do... ...do... •170.0 - 1 9 8 . 0 - 2 1 7 . 6 - 2 0 1 . 6 NA 805.8 800.0 7 26.5 786.8 NA 984.9 1023.4 1001.5 1039.6 896.5 61.7 68.5 NA 62.5 70.0 577.5 540.8 NA 592.7 608.4 515.8 472.4 530.2 538.5 551.2 D2. Defense Indicators Mil. dol ....do.. ....do 1977 = 100,.. Thousands A.r., bil. doL. 22,437 26,863 28,402 29,469 12,9 42 12,240 11,586 12,370 7,452 8,022 6,714 9,332 157 .9 173.6 178.2 180.0 1,544 1,438 1 ,589 1,578 259.4 235.0 266.4 268.0 NA 28,162 29,221 NA 12,855 8,849 8,173 6,500 8,430 179.3 178.8 179.5 NA 1,594 1,598 277.5 NA NA 9,589 179.7 NA 3.8 -31.2 29.7 0.4 0.3 NA NA 13.7 0.1 NA 3.8 6.8 39.0 -1.0 0.7 -0,6 NA NA -12.4 0.6 NA 4.2 -3.0 -4.1 -8.5 5.2 30.4 0.2 NA NA NA NA NA NA 2.5 -6.7 4.8 2.3 -3.4 0.2 NA NA E. U.S. International Transactions E l . Merchandise Trade 602. 604. 606. 612. 614. 616. Exports, excluding military aid shipments Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of nonelectrical machinery General imports Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Imports of automobiles and parts Mil. dol... ..do.. ..do.., ...do.., ..do... 18,137 17,772 17,456 17,884 3,146 2,426 2,408 2,2 46 3,875 3,917 3,781 3,963 27,133 28,838 30,256 30,957 4,689 4,180 4,419 4,270 3,7 87 4,688 5,139 5,147 NA NA 17,964 17,430 2,043 1,960 3,981 3,644 2 8 , 7 6 2 30,272 2,084 2,718 5,044 5,054 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data1 Percent chang > Unit' Series title Annual average of measure 1984 1983 1985 1st Q 1985 2dQ 1985 3d Q 1985 4th Q 1985 1st Q 1986 3dQ to 4th Q 1985 2dQ 1986 E 4th Q to 1st Q 1986 1st C to 2dQ 1986 M II. (DTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con. E2. Goods and Services Movements Except Transfers Under Military Grants 667 668. 669 622 618 620 651. 652. Balance on goods and services3 Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Balance on merchandise trade3 Merchandise exports adjusted Merchandise imports adjusted Income on U.S investment abroad Income on foreign investment in the United States Bil. dol do do do do do ....do do -9, 83. 92. -16. 50. 67. 19. 13. 28 - 2 3 . 58 - 2 5 . 67 - 2 2 . 8 3 9 0 . 03 32 88.04 8 9 . 62 SO 1 1 3 . SO 1 1 5 . 30 1 1 0 . 8 7 77 - 2 8 . M - 3 1 . 11 - 2 5 . 0 4 Vf> 5 4 . =)8 55.32 5 3 . F> 1 22 8 3 . 10 80.37 8 4 . 72 2 1 , . 56 2 2 . 50 31 18.73 10 1 6 . 20 16,, 87 16.51 -25. 89. 115. -30. 53. 84. 22. 16. 96 - 2 4 . 4 5 - 2 9 . %5 -30.64 90.23 90 . 37 35 91.60 31 114.69 1 2 0 . 32 1 2 2 . 2 4 37 - 3 1 .68 - 3 7 . 35 - 3 6 . 5 8 5 2 . 73 53.55 B8 52.50 90.13 24 84.17 9 0 . )8 24.24 24.50 2 4 . 51 25 17 .42 80 16.24 1 5 . 25 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA -1.19 0.8 1.6 0.77 1.6 0.1 -1.1 14.2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 667 668 669 622 618 620 651 652 1 .4 0,5 0.3 0.7 1.8 0.6 0.4 1.5 0.9 0.7 -0.3 1.8 1 .6 1.4 0 .8 .3 .1 0 .8 1 .5 1.8 1 .5 200 50 217 213 224 225 227 -5.00 0.7 4,9 -5.67 0.4 7.0 0. -6.1 A. National Income and Product A l . GNP and Personal Income 200 50. 217. 213. 224 225. 227. Gross national product Gross national product in 1982 dollars Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars Final sales in 1982 dollars Disposable personal income Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars 230. 231 232 233 236 238 237 239 Total Total in 1982 dollars Durable goods Durable goods in 1982 dollars Nondurable goods Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars Services Services in 1982 dollars 240 241 242 243 245 30. Total Total in 1982 dollars Fixed investment Fixed investment in 1982 dollars Change in business inventories1 Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3 Ar bil dol ....do A.r .dollars .... A.r , bil. dol. do . . do . ... A.r .dollars 3 40 5. 7 3279.1 13,963 3285.5 2428.1 2331.9 9,930 3765 . 0 3988 .1 3489.9 3 5 8 5 . 2 14,721 14,981 3430.7 3576.2 2670.6 2 8 2 8 . 0 2470.6 2 5 2 8 . 0 10,421 1 0 , 5 6 3 3 9 0 9 . 3 3965 .0 4030.5 3547.0 3567.6 3603.8 14,874 14,928 1 5 , 0 4 1 3523.9 3550.2 3 6 0 3 . 1 2755.4 2842.3 2 8 3 2 . 0 2495.7 2550.8 2 5 2 4 . 7 10,466 10,674 10,537 4087 . 7 3622.3 15,080 3627.5 2882.2 2540.7 10,577 4149.2 4182.3 3655.9 3665.7 15,188 15,197 3 6 1 6 . 1 3646 . 1 2935.1 2979.2 2581 .2 2 6 2 6 . 6 10 ,723 1 0 , 8 8 9 , bil. dol do do do do , . do do do 2234.5 2146 .0 289 .1 283 . 1 8 1 6 .7 800 .2 1128 . 7 1 0 6 2 .7 2428.2 2 2 46. 3 331 . ? 318 .9 870 .1 8 2 8 .6 1227 .0 1098 .7 2600.5 2324 . 5 359 .3 343 . 9 90 5 . 1 841 .6 1336 . 1 1139 .0 2530.9 2292.3 347 .7 332.3 888.2 834.3 1294.9 1125.8 2627.1 2342.0 373.3 357.4 907.4 843.8 1346.4 1140.8 2667.9 2351 .7 362 .0 347 .0 922 . 6 847 .2 1383 . 2 1157 .5 2697.9 2372.7 360.8 345.4 929.7 860.6 1407.4 1166.6 2730.1 2407.0 374.7 357.5 926.0 875.5 1429.4 1173.9 1 ,6 0.4 -3.0 -2,9 1.7 0.4 2.7 1 .5 1.1 0.9 -0.3 -0.5 0.8 1.6 1 .7 0.8 1 .2 1 .4 3 .9 3 .5 - 0 .4 1 .7 1 .6 0 .6 230 231 232 233 236 238 237 239 0 0 A2, Personal Consumption Expenditures A.r . .. 2576.0 2311 . 9 354 .0 338 .8 902 .3 841 . 3 1319 . 7 1131 . 8 A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment . do do do ... . do do do. . . 502 504 509 810 -7 -6 .3 .0 .4 .4 .1 .4 662 652 598 592 64 59 ,1 .0 .0 ,8 .1 .2 661 .1 647 .7 650 .0 638 . 6 11 . 1 9 .0 650.6 638.2 625.2 615.0 25.4 23.2 667 655 648 638 19 17 .1 .6 .0 .1 .1 .4 657.4 643.8 654.3 643 . 1 3.1 0.7 669 653 672 658 -3 -5 .5 .2 .6 .4 .1 .2 708.3 684.0 664.4 644.1 43.8 39.9 691.4 667.6 671.9 648.0 19.5 19.6 1 .8 1.5 2.8 2.4 -6.2 -5.9 5.8 4.7 -1.2 -2.2 46.9 45.1 - 2 .4 - 2 .4 1 .1 0 .6 - 2 4 .3 -20 .3 240 241 242 243 245 30 do do do do do do 675 649 283 275 391 373 .0 .0 .5 .1 ,s .9 733 675 311 291 422 383 .4 .7 .3 .7 ? .5 815 . 4 7 2 1 .7 354 . 1 323 . 6 461 , 3 397 . 6 777 . 3 695.3 333.7 305.8 443.5 389.5 799 .0 708 . 3 340 .9 311 . 4 458 . 1 396 . 9 829.7 731.8 360.9 329.9 468.8 401.9 855 . 6 749 . 4 380 . 9 347 . 2 47 4 . 7 40 2 . 2 836.7 725.2 355.7 320.4 480.9 404.8 857.2 737.5 364.8 325.1 492.4 412.4 3.1 2.4 5.5 5.2 1.3 0.1 -2.2 -3.2 -6.6 -7.7 1 .3 0.6 2 ,5 1 ,7 2 .6 1 .5 2 .4 1 .9 260 261 262 263 266 267 do do do do do do -6 -19 352 348 358 368 ,1 .9 .5 .1 .7 .1 -58 -83 382 369 441 453 7 .6 .7 .7 .4 .2 - 7 8 ,9 -108 . 2 369 . 8 36 2 . 3 448 . 6 470 . 5 -49.4 -78.8 378.4 369.4 427.9 448.2 .1 .0 .2 .9 .6 .8 -93.7 -125.9 374.8 369.2 46 8.5 495.1 -96.4 -146.3 375.6 371.9 472.0 518.3 -21.6 -18.2 1.6 2.0 6.2 5.4 11.6 6.1 1 .8 1.7 -1.1 0.1 3287 . 3 2423 . 6 262 . 1 8 .3 285 . 6 307 . 6 33 4 0 . 7 2461 .5 265.3 12.8 296.4 304.9 NA 2478.8 288.0 15.1 NA 299.1 1.4 1.8 5.1 13.7 -3.6 -0.7 1.6 1.6 1.2 54.2 3.8 -0.9 NA 0 .7 8 .6 18 . 0 NA - 1 .9 220 280 282 284 2 86 288 .1 .5 .8 .1 .4 5 83.2 569.2 145.6 - 1 3 1 .6 5.0 NA NA 155.7 NA 5.2 -3.2 -1.2 5.2 -17.1 0.2 11.3 2.8 15.7 23.5 0.6 NA NA 6 .9 NA 0 .2 290 295 292 298 293 A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services 260 261 262 263. 266 267. Total Total in 1982 dollars Federal Government Federal Government in 1982 dollars State and local government State and local government in 1982 dollars 250 255. 252. 256. 253. 257. Net exports of goods and services3 Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3 Exoofts of Goods and services Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars Imports of goods and services 220 280. 282. 284. 286. 288 National income Compensation of employees . . .. .. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdi Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj. Net interest.. A5. Foreign Trade Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars -77 -108 370 361 447 469 .1 .1 .0 .2 .1 .3 - 8 3 . 7 -105 - 1 1 3 .8 - 1 3 2 368 362.3 355.8 362 446 .0 473 46 9 . 6 494 -2 -20 0 0 0 4 .7 .4 .2 .7 .7 .7 250 255 252 256 253 257 A6. National Income and Its Components ..do. . . 2719 . 5 .do. . 2020 . 7 . do . . 190 . 9 do 13 . 2 ... d o . . . 213 . 7 281 0 .do. . . 3032 . 0 3222 . 1 3157 . 0 3201 . 4 2214 . 7 2368 . 2 2 3 1 6 . 3 2352 . 1 255 . 5 236 . 9 250.7 254 . 4 8 .1 8 .3 6 .8 7 .6 . 7 . 7 274 264 266.4 .3 2 80 311 , 4 307 /, 316.8 311 4 3243.4 2380.9 249.3 7.3 296.3 309.7 A7. Saving 290 295 292. 298. 293. Gross saving . ...do . . . . . . . ...do . . . . Business saving Personal saving . do Government surplus or deficit 3 .. . . d o Personal saving rate 3 Percent. . . 463 461 130 -128 5 f> 573 fi 506 1 .6 168 . 7 .6 - 1 0 1 .5 .4 6 .3 551 5 544 •S 143 . 3 -136 . 3 5.1 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk ( * ) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A, seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 'The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified. 573.2 525.6 144.1 -96.6 5.2 566 538 183 -155 6 .8 .9 .6 .6 .5 541 . 7 560.1 119.6 -138.0 4.2 524 553 125 -155 4 1 For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available. 3 Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. 'Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. s End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. 'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of the span. CYCLICAL INDICATORS |A | COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Chart A l . Composite Indexes July toy P T Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dee. Ney. P T Nov. Mar. P T Jaa.Jj'jjf W y P T' P Nov. T : 1967 = 1001 190- 180 - 910. Index of twelve leading indicators 1/0- (series 1, 5, 8,12,19,20,29,32,36,99,106,111) 180150140130120110100- 170- 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 4 1 , 4 7 , 5 1 , 5 j j !| V^^^TIi 160 150140- : o .z: 130 - +i 120- 4-4- 190- 930. Index of six lagging indicators (series 62, 77, 91, 95,101,109) 40 J 19B0S1 52 53 §4 5S SS 57 §4 SB 86 1987 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. 10 JULY 1986 ItCII COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued July May P T Jan, July July Nov. P T P T [Into; 1367^1001 JatK), piRiident tnc|eK to laggingjoidex I if $ f ; ; j , VUM La, a ij >., ;A; j ^ i.j >.i 'mm uu y s si'S¥; . ; ' ^ f ^ t^ ^ i r ^ %$M WM ¥$W :<M^ Mu i W'ct fc'-m Iwtiivfy r \\ , ;: , ; :•.:•. i>, .•;; -.ij ,,:.,. f i . : i .ii •;;;:>.,.•';,;:,•;;>;:;;; \', ^ \ "•' f''•• •;T! ij\M u-f< • i"t;V'i;; f:ft;: v- f?i • • y?=r''::-t1 {f\f:::\:! > ;T til i I M R •!';: •: .• -:.: •:^ '/' •'';'" ''' • '"' 1 9 5 0 5 2 5 2 5 3 5 4 5 5 5 ® 5 7 5 B 5 9 ® 0 6 1 § 2 6 3 6 4 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 3 6 9 7 0 7 1 7 2 7 3 7® 7 5 7 © 7 7 7 8 J § 8 © 8 1 8 2 S 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 1 9 8 7 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. JULY 1986 11 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components July May P Aug. Apr. T P Pie. i\!ev. Apr. Feb. T P P T T Wey. Mar. Jan, Juty July H&i, P T F T P I 1. Averse weekly M i r s of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours) wjBfild^uiiftwiJG^^ State programs (thousands—inverted scale) 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (bil. dol.) [ F E T l ""' r = m Vendor bertormahce, percenfof conffanfes"receiving slower i deliveries Cnercent) 12. Net businessjormation (index: 1967-100) ill : 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipments ^ 1982 dollars (by. dol.) 1950 5 1 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 §9 60 61 62 63 m 65 6® ®? S8 ©§ 70 7i 11 Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, 65, and 66. 12 JULY 1986 KCII COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Nov. P Mar. T Jan. July July P T P Nov T 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits ^ i n c t e 1967.—109) l.LL 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bit. dol.) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) \ 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (artn. rate, percent) _ [XX L fill =101950 51 52 53 36 5S 5G 57 50 53 82 S3 04 67 7(a 71 72 73 74 n ?a 'This is a weighted 4 - t e r m moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 7 1 , and 72. licit JULY 1986 13 A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A3. Coincident Index Components liiiy May P ! Aufv A^f, {» ] Apr. h;b. P T Dec. Nov. P T Now, Mar. P T Jan.My J d ^ P T P few I 41. Employees on ^^agricultural payrois (mions) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 ddars (arm. rate, N.dol.) 47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100) cxic 57. Manufacturing and trade sates in 1982 dollars (btdoJ,) OCX 71 72 S3L a s a s Current data for these *erl«s are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65. 14 JULY 1986 COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A4. Lagging Index Components July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Jan.July July Nov. P T P T faragi Sliate iifi6m(il6yiiE!ifrt 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data 1Q9| Jlveraglprime riiphargecfi y hanks, (percent) 1Q§ eomm|!ia|andiigustria) loans outstanding in 198? SO 6 1 ®2 S3 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73. JULY 1986 15 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment Apr. P Hb. T Dec. Nov. P T Now. Mar. Jan. July F T July P Nov. T I Marginal Employment Adjustments! 1. Average weekly hours of production ornonsupervisory workers, manufacturin£(hours) 40- ma 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours) | L , C L | 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale) i tm-t 300- 400500- [job Vacancies | 700fifl Batin haln-Miantari arivartranir in nflwsnantfs ta number 1.4-1 of persons unemployed (ratio) i . . 1.0- 1 160- 4g, Help-wanted adveffemg in newspapers jfirtdex: 1967=100) 120100- 60-* 19S9 60 61 %Z §3 ©4 ©i S© <Bl Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 . 16 JULY 1986 KCII B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued Jan. July P T July Nov. P T I Comprehensive Employment! 48. Employee hours in nonagncultural establishments , fail, hours) (ann. 42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions) nonagncultural payrolls (millions) 40. Employees on; nonagncultural payrolls, goods-producing industries (millions) l 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (percent) 1959 6@ 61 6; !3 84 SS 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62. KCII JULY 1986 17 CYCLICAL IWDBCMOiS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued Dee. P Apr. Nov. 1 Now. P Mar. T Jan. July P T July •p Nov T | Comprehensive Unemployment [ 37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale) 43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale) ulu 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale) 91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale) 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale) m m Jifjas Current data for these series are shown on page 62. 18 JULY 1986 ItCII B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income Apr. Feb. Dec. Nov. P T P T Jan. July P T F T July P fc T [Comprehensive Output and Income | 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (ana rate, bil. doi.) 52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (arm. rate, bil. dol.) OCX Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing and construction (ann. rate, bil. dol.) Current data for these series are shown on page 63. K C I I JULY 1986 19 B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued Apr. P Mi Nov. P T fan. July July I [Industrial Production] 47. Industrial production (index: 1977-100) C,C,C 73. Industrial production, durable manufactures (index::1977-100) •; 74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures (index: 1977 H 0 0 ) C.LL 49. Vafue of goods output in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.) | Capacity Utilization 1 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent) 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent) ?»• 1959 ©@ ©E ^ ©3 m §B S(S i ©11 ©2 $3 i^ §B ?16 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64. 20 JULY 1986 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Apr. Feb. P T | Orders and Deliveries 1 Dec. Nov. Nov. P T P War. Jan. I j ' y P T 7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods, industries (bit. dol.) K 4iflrL| 6, Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, :.,= durable goods industries (biL doi)__ _ _ __ 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (bil. dol.) 25, Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil. dol.; 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries dot.) r j - 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies (percent) .__ . 85 1936 Current data for these series are shown on page 64. JULY 1986 21 B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued P KOT. Kev, Apr. Feb. p T to. I Jan. iuly P T ]u!y NOT. p' T I Consumption and Trade! 57. Manufacturing and trade in 1982 dollars (bi. dot.) €,€,€ 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (NLdoL) 75. Industrial production, consumer goods (index: 1977=100) C.L.C 59. Sales of reta|stores in 1982 dollars (bit. dpi.) U.L.U 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (bi. dol) cTu 55. Persona! consumption expenditures, automobiles, Q (arm. rate, biL dol.) Hex 58. Index of consumer sentiment (1st Q 1966-100) Current data for these series are shown on page 69. 22 JULY 1986 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Nov. P i.July T July P Nov. T 160 • 1 Formation of Business Enterprises] 140 - 12. Net business formation (index: 1967= 120:-* 106 * 60- 13. New business incorporations (thousands) L "30- 3530* 25 - 1 Business Investment Commitments | .,_ ^ 20- 20; Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (bil. dol.) n i l 27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (bil. dol.) \TJJ\ 3025 - 15- 24. Manufacturers' new orders In current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (bil. dol.) r f f [ 10 J no 100° 70 H Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings (mil. sq. ft. of floor space; MCD moving avg, 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66. JULY 1986 23 B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Apr, Fell, F 1 Jan. July P T F T July P [to. T | Business Investment Commitments—Con, 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations, Q (bil. dol.) 11; Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations, Q (bil. dol.) 100. Expenditures in 1982 dollars for new plant and equipment^ Q (ann. rate, bl. dol.) | Business Investment Expenditures | 61. Expenditures in current dollars for new plant and equipment, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.) 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 76. Industrial production, business equipment (index: 1977^100) [ c J ^ Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67. 24 JULY 1986 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T ~ - f 1 Business investment Expenditures—Con7| , 1 ; !• Nov. • P Mar T Jan. July July P I P Wow. T --- r Jj }\ [\ r : • ; ^ ' ; ;.• j II ii Gross private nonresidenttai fixed investment in 1982 dollars (arm. rate, bil. dot.) ; 86. Total, Q | 20CH 120- 1 Residential; Construction Commitments and Investment |j! 28. New private housing units started luX 2.2°2.0- 1.0° 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967^100) 2@0180-= Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.) 160 = 120 = 1959 i® §11 %t (S3 M 3g 72 /3 04 <J>t> 1906 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. IICII JULY 1986 25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment Apr. Feb. Dec. Nov. P T P T [ Inventory Investment] P T P 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dolars, Q (ana rate, bil. do).) full 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. do!.; moving avg.—4-term1) 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories, book value (ann. rate, bil. do).; MCD moving avg.—6-term) 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value (bil. dol; MCD moving avg.—4-term) s^ §s i^ ©s 3i®@ 'This Is a weighted 4-term moving average {with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 68. 26 JULY 1986 ItCII B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5, Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued Apr. Feb. P T [inventories on Hand and, on. Order | Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T P T Jan. July P T July Nov. P T 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 19$2 dollars (bil. dol.) |Lg,lg,Lg| \ 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, bookMieibiLdol.) 65. Manufacturers1 inventories, finished pods* book value (bil. dol.) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and tradejnventories to satesjnJ982 dollars^ < ratk) > lLg,Lg,Lg 78. Manufacturers' inventories, and on order, book Current data for these series are shown on page 68. Bill JULY 1986 27 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Apr, Fell Dee. Nev. P T P T | Sensitive Commodity Prices | to. P Mar. T kii P >Iy July Mew. T P 7' 98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials (percent; MCD moving avg.—6:term) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (percent; moving avg.-4~terml) [ITT "tit::.;: 23. Spot market prides, raw industrial materials2 (index: 1967 = 100) 19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10) [Profits and Profit Margins] 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dtflars, Q (ann. rate, Ml. dot.) |~[~[T 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. doJ.) 1999 60 61 62 'This Is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. "Beginning with data for June 1 9 8 1 , this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 69. 28 JULY 1986 K C I I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Jan. July P T July Nov. P T 80. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bit. dol. 1 Profits and Profit Margins—Con. 79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in current dollars, Q (aim. rate, bil. do!.) LCl 22.. Ratio, ffrporate domestic profits after tax to corporate domestic income, Q (percent) """"" 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income, Q (percent) ^ J j L t? r P^Oft e r _l a M s £ e r d °lj a !' tf sales, manufacturing corporations, Q (cents) m 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector. 0 (index: 1977-106) 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars, Q 34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars, Q (ami. rate, bil. do!.) 1959 6© 84 83 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70. BCII JULY 1986 29 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Apr. Fell. P Y Dee. R!ew. P 1 Nov. Jin. July P I July P fflw. T [Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share I 63. Unit labor cost, business sector, Q (index: 1977-100) r j 7 [ 7 [ 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations, Q (dollars) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1977-100) "^ 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income Q (percent) Current data for these series are shown on page 70. 30 JULY 1986 ItCII B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit Apr. Feb. P T Dee, Nov. P T Nov. Mar. P T Jan. July July F T P Mow. T 85. Change irt money supply M l _ _ (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) I LL,Lj t 102. Change in money supply M2 (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) 105. Money supply M l in 1982 dollars (bil. do).) 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bH. dot.) Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l | Velocity of Money | 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (ratio) Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 . BCII JULY 1986 31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Kau. Dec. New. P T Apr. Feb. P T Jun.Jyly P T M@ir. July Nov. P T + 160« [Credjit Flowsj +140* +120- 33, Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (ann. rate, bil. dol.) +100- TiPuTI 8 +40+20- 112. Net change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term) [, , L i 113. Net change in consumer installment credit: (ann. rate, biL do!.; MCD moving avgM-term) 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) | L,L,L A- VW^S** -*itt*~*bfi**aiff^A • V v ^ ^ ^ V ^ 1 +io« ^ ^ ^ 0-10- 12001000- A 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets, Q (ann. (jate, bil. dol.) i . . . i ! 5 800- 600§00400- ^ ^ T T A 1999 80 U B2 63 B4 SS 66 67 84 SB 1980 Current data for these series are shown on pages 7 1 and 7 2 . 32 JULY 1986 BCII B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T • Wov. Mar. P T Jan. July P T July Nov. P T I Credit Difficulties! {& 14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil. do!.— », < inverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term) 100- •* "it, 200 = 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (percent—inverted scale) . 93. Free reserves (bil. dol.—inverted scale) 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bii. dot.) 1959 SO 61 ®4 8S 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 72. JULY 1986 33 B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued P ten, July p T Dec. Nov. P T I July P Key. I Interest Rates | 119. Federal funds rate (percent)—r- . Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (percent) 116. Yield on new issues of Nrfi-grade corporate bonds (percent) f t i l i l F l > . Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (percent) C, Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (percent) Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (percent) iss© i© <BI ®% (S3 m m s© a Currant data for thota ierle« art shown on pages 72 and 73. 34 JULY 1986 ItCII B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Apr. Feb. P Jan. July T T July Nov. P T nterest Rates—Con, 109* Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding m 1982 dollars (bi. do!.) |Outstanding Debt] 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (bil. dol.) 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (bil. dol.) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (percent) [tiTT Current data for these series are shown on page 73. JULY 1986 35 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes Dec. Urn. P T Apr. Feb. P T Mar. Jan. July F T 950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span T July P Nov. T , 1-mo. s p a n - — ) 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span , 1-mo. s p a n - — ) ye- 952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — ) 100 ^ 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervtsory workers, 20 manufacturing industries (9-i 180- D8- 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (percent declining; 9-mo.span^^. 1-mo, span - ^ ) so- 963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries p. span— rft1-mo. 100- H8- 1999 60 SI S2 ©3 64 Si S3 §4 S3 1988 Current data for these series are shown on page 74. 36 JULY 1986 ItCII DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Nov. Mar. P T Jan. July P T July P | Percent rising] 964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries (9-mo. span—»1-mo. span---) 965. N l w ^ j ^ HQM. T inT§72 dollars, 17 I-Q $pan»;^») 966. Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. span -, 1-mo. span---) 100" §0- 0- 967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (9-mo. span-—H 1-mo. span---) jj 100- §0- 0- 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 42-82 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-.-) 50- LH-11M. 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span) 01 84 85 1986 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 75. JULY 1986 37 DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued (liar. I P kn. kly P T Iclv f Actual —— Anticipated • • • Percent rising j ki)j s * Actual «" ' i •'• Anticipated ••••••• 970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment, 21 industries (1-Q span) (a) Actual expenditures HOH) 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 (b) Later projections 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 | 1--.. (a) Actual expenditures f projections 971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1 976. Seing prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 977. Sefng prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1 :«V»*X .A* 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 00- 978. Seing prices, retai trade (4-Q span)1 l TM% \t a copyrighted terlet ut«d by pormlwlon; It may not be reproduced without written permlt$lon from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradttreet diffusion Indexes art b a u d on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 38 JULY 1986 Kill DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C3. Rates of Change Apr. Feb. P T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T Mar. T July P Nov. T 1-month spans - 4 1 3-month spans '• I Percent change at annual rate] _ Jan. July P T 910c. Composite irjd§x pf twelve l e a d i n g J s M v s = 920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators 930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators 47c. index of industrial production 50c. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (1-Q span) 48c. Emgtoyee hours in nonagricultural establishments 51c. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars \ NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published. BCII JULY 1986 39 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income Apr, Feb. P I 200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (unit rate, bit. dot) 223. Personal income in current dollars (ann. rate, bit. dot.) 224. Disposable persona* income in current doiars, Q (*m. rate, bl. doJ.) 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. f t W l d J ) 213. Final sales in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bU. dol.) 225. Disposable personal income in 1982 qolars; Q (arm. rate, bl. dot.) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, thous. dol.) 227. Per caprta disposable personal income in ~lwi dollars, U (ann. rate, X Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80. 40 JULY 1986 KCII NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures Apr. Feb. P T Annual rate, bUkm dollars (current)] !| Personal consumption expenditures— 237. Services, Q - * 23$. Nondurable goods, Q 232. Durable goods, Q [Annual rate, bifexi doflars (1982)[ . lj - ^— « 239. Services, Q 238. Nondurable goods, Q 233. Dtirablejoods,J 1959 Current data for these series are shown on pages 8 0 and 8 1 BCII JULY 1986 41 A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment Apr. Fell. Dee. Nov. P T P T [to. Jan. My "«% Kav. 1 Annual rate, b i o n doters (current) |< Gross private domestic investment 245. Change in business inventories, Q Annual rate, b i o n dolars (1982)| 243. Fixed investment, Q 30. Change in business inventories, Q Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 . 42 JULY 1986 KCII NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services Apr. fab. P T Dae. P Nov. Nov. Mar. T P T Jan. July P T July Nov. P T Annual rate, bilMjdritars (current)] Government purchases of goods and services— 266. State and local government, Q I Annual rate, biHion dollars (1982)1 267. State and local government, Q Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 . ItCII JULY 1986 43 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURE! NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A5. Foreign Trade Apr. Feb. P I Annual rate, bfton dolars- 252. Exports of goods ami services, Q 253. Imports of goods and services, Q 250. Net exports of goods and services, Q Annual rate, b i o n dollars (1982) 257. Imports of goods and services, Q Exports of goods and services, Q 255. Net exports of goods and services, Q 1959 60 61 62 §3 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. 44 JULY 1986 IICII IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A6. National Income and Its Components Dec. P Wov. T Nov. P Jan. July P T Mar. T July P Nov. T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) | 220. National income, Q 280. Compensation of employees, Q 286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory yabafinf and capital consumption adjustments, Q 288. Net interest, Q p ' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q 1959 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. BCII JULY 1986 45 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A7. Saving Apr. Feb. P I je. MOT. 1 T %m. Mar. P T kn. kl\j khf Kluw. [Anrtuai rate, bitoi doiars (current)) 290. Gross saving, 298; Government surplus or deficit, Q Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83. 46 JULY 1986 itcn ECONOMD© NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income jr. Feb. Dec. Nov. P T Nov. fc. Ji?iit% P T July P Mow. I [Percent of GNP | 70- 235. Personal consumption expenditures, Q 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services, Q 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q 10 H 248. Presidential fixed investment, Q 249. Residential fixed investment. Q ^ 2 4 7 . Change in business inventories, Q 251. Net exports of goods and services, Q [Percent of National Income| 64. Compensation of employees, Q 70- 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 15 s 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 289. Net interest, Q 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q n i% 73 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. B C D JULY 1986 47 B PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Chart B l . Price Movements 310c. Implicit price deflator for gross national product (1-Q span) 1 Percent change at annual rate | national product, Q 311c. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (1-Q span) 311. Fixed-weighted price indax domestic husiitess product Q Producer price indexes— 330c. Al commodities Index: 1967 = 1001 335c. Industrial commodities 331c. Crude materials for further processing ndustrial commodities y ^ ^ 331. Crude materialsjor further-processing! 332c. Intermediate materiab, supplies, and components suodies. and comoonents 333c. Capital equipment 333. CapitaUouipmeat 334c. Finished consumer goods 334. Finished consumer goods 1986 Current data for those series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86. 48 JULY 1986 ItCII OTHER BBiro^T^WT EO@W©WSD(S i i i / ^ B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Nov. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 320c. All urban consumers (6-month span) 322c. All urban consumers, food (6-month span) Chart B2. Wages and Productivity ] Index: 1977 ^ l 1 Wages 1 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1 340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory" workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (current dollars)1 346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q 345: Average hourfy compensation, nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars) 1959 60 ©1 63 ©4 §9 'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88. ItCII JULY 1986 49 mmm mnmrnwr Emmwx m^mmm B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued Apr, hJh. P I t r Wages—Con. I , A •—f—-—' . . Change in average hourly earnings of production or nonsupemsory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1— ,\ . 1 Percent change], x 6-month spans (arm. rate) jt j! 340c. Current-dollar earnings 341c. Real earnings h ; Change in average hourly compensation, aU employees, nonfarm business sector, Q— 345c. Current-dollar compensation , i J /M< 1-quarter spans (ann. rate) 346c. Real compensation H 4-quarter spans * Negotiated wage and benefit decisions— 348, Average first-year changes, Q (ann. rate) 349, Average changes over life of contract, Q (ann. rate) 1 Index: 1977=1001 | Productivity I 358. Output per hour, al persons, nonfarm business sector, Q 370. Output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q 370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q (Percent change | 1-quarter spans (arm. rate) IE] >y^r\ V ©3 V ^ J^- 03 W\> v @ Sit ©^ V i1(lM;i,,. 'Adjusted for overtime (In manufacturing only) and Interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable with the annuallzed 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88. 50 JULY 1986 KCI) LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components Feb. T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T Mar. T Jan. July July F T P Nov. T 12®- 441. Civilian labor force (millions) 442. Civilian employment (millions) Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)— 451. Males 20 years and over 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age 452. Females 20 years and over Number unemployed (millions)— 444. Males 20 and over 445Tfiffiales20 years and over 446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age 447. Number unemployed, fuH-time woriters (nitons) Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (millions) Current data for these series are shown on page 89. BCD JULY 1986 51 D GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures P T P Jisn. Jw!y P T T July P Annual rate, bion ctoiafs (current)| 502. federal Government expenditures, Q 501. Federal Government receipts, Q 500. FederaJ Government surplus or deficit, Q 511. State and local government receipts, Q 512. State and local government expenditures, Q 510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q §1 B2 ©3 84 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. 52 JULY 1986 KCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I£) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators Apr. Feb. P Dec. T Nov. Mar. T T P ' Jan. July P July Nov. T P T 80 SI I Advance Measures of Defense Activity | 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (bil. do!.; MOD moving avg.-6-temi) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards (bil. driL; MCD moving avg.—6-term) 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil. dol.) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (bi. do!.; MCD moving aVg.-6-term) i | | | m tin.* 1959 60 SI 62 63 64 63 86 67 68 69 70 i i sr 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. KCII JULY 1986 53 GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Apr. f-'fii). P T Dec. Now. P T kn. P I P JiaHy July (to, T ¥ T | Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity | (index: 1977*100) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value (bil. do!.) 561. Manufacturers' unfitted orders, defense products (bl. dol.) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (bit. dol.) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (bil. dol.) Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 . 54 JULY 1986 ttCII GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Dec. WOT. P T Nov. P Mar. T Ian. July P T Jyly Nov. P T | Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Con. [ 570. Employment, defense products industries (millions) Defense Department personnel (millwns)— 577. Military personnel on active duty 3,5* 3.0 « 2.5- 2.0- 578. Civilian personnel, direct hire employment 1.0 J 2SQ220- Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national , Q (ann. rate, bil. dol) p 100 « 565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent) Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 . JULY 1986 55 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Chart E l . Merchandise Trade Apr. Pel). Dee, Nov. Nov. Mir. T P T P Jan. July P T July MOT. P T 602, Exports, excluding military aid shipments (bil. dot.) 3- 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bil. doJ.) 3430- 14* ID- 9.08.07.0- 612. General imports (bil. doJ.) 6.08.04.0- 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (bLdoL) 1.0- 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (bl. doJ.) fl.8- 0.6- 0.4- 1©B0 6© SI 62 ©3 §4 8S 7% 76 77 78 79 Current data for these series are shown on page 92. 56 JULY 1986 KCII E U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements Jan. July P July Nov. P T T | Annual rate, billion dollars Excess of payments Goods and services— 667. Balance on goods and services, Q Merchandise, adjusted- Balance on merchandise trade, Q \ 620. Imports, Q Income on investment— 651. U.S. investment abroad, Q 652. Foreign investment in the United States, Q 1959 SO Current data for these series are shown on page 93. ItCII JULY 1986 57 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart F l . Industrial Production Apr. Fell. P T Dec. New. P T ? T 1 P T Ihdw: 1977=1001 Industrial production— 170- 100- 723. Canada 11 1% Ti> 7^ JB 70) 77 Current data for these series are shown on page 94. 58 JULY 1986 KCII muimi F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Chart F3. Stock Prices Chart F2. Consumer Prices Jan. July F T July P I Percent change at annual rate] Nov. T Jan. July F T July P Nov. T 16-month spans ] Consumer prices— Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96. B C D JULY 1986 59 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Q 910. Index of twelve leading indicators (series 1,5,8,12,19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111) Year and month (1967-100) 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 41,47,51,57) (1967-100) 930. Index of six lagging indicators (series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (1967 = 100) COMPOSITE INDEXES 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index Leading indicator subgroups 914. Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20, 29) 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8, 32, 36, 99) (1967=100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) 916. Profitability (series 19, 26, 80) 917. Money and financial flows (series 104,106, HI) (1967=100) (1967-100) 1984 January February March . . . 164.5 166.5 167.2 149.5 150.6 151.1 109.8 111.3 112.8 E>136.2 135.3 134.0 110.3 0)111.5 110.8 106.1 106.8 107.5 109.2 108.4 109.3 133.4 134.8 136.3 168.1 168.2 166 7 152.6 153.9 155 4 114.6 116.4 117 5 133.2 132.2 110.7 110.7 111 1 E>107.9 107.7 inc n 110.1 110.8 iin R 136.6 138.1 July . . . August September 163.9 164.4 165.7 155.7 156.0 156.5 118.8 119.8 121.0 131.1 130.2 129.3 109.6 110.3 110.4 104.6 103.6 103.8 110.3 111.7 112.2 137.3 136.9 137.3 October November December 164.2 165.1 164.1 156.5 157.7 158.8 122.0 121.7 121.9 128.3 129.6 130.3 109.3 109.8 109.3 103.8 103.4 102.3 112.4 112.8 112.5 135.S 136.0 136.3 January February March 166.3 167.1 167.4 158.4 159.0 159.3 123.7 124.3 125.4 128.1 127.9 127.0 109.2 111.0 110.8 102.6 102.5 102.0 113.1 114.1 114.2 139.0 138.6 138.9 April May ! June 166.7 167.1 167.7 160.5 160.2 159.5 125.1 126.7 126 5 128.3 126.4 126 1 110.0 109.7 110 1 101.8 101.6 101 5 114.5 115.0 115 8 137.1 135.9 11^ 6 July August September 169.2 rl69.8 rl7O.7 159.7 161.0 rl60.9 rl26.9 rl26.9 rl28.4 rl25.8 rl26.9 rl25.3 rllO.5 rll0.7 rill.2 rlO1.5 rlO1.5 101.6 rll6.7 rll6.9 rll5.6 rl37.7 rl4o!l October November December rl71.7 rl71.6 r!73.7 rl60.8 rl61.5 rl63.0 129.7 rl29.9 130.2 rl24.0 rl24.3 rl25.2 rll0.4 rlO9.6 rllO.6 r102.1 rlO2.3 rlO2.7 rll4.8 rll4.9 r!16.7 rHl.l 140.6 rHl.B rl73.6 rl75.0 rl76.0 rl62,8 rl63.2 rl62.8 rl31.9 rl32.3 [H>rl33.2 123.4 rl23.4 rl22.2 109.1 rll0.9 rll0.7 rlO3.3 rlO3.4 rlO3.2 rll7.7 rll9.6 121.2 rl42.1 rl40.6 rl39.7 rl78.3 178.1 [H)1178.6 H>rl65.3 163.8 2 162.6 rl31.4 132.4 3 131.5 rl25.8 rl23.7 P123.7 rill.3 109.9 pllO.2 rlO3.6 rlO3.2 P103.3 121.9 0>pl22.1 (NA) rl40.1 fH>rl42.5 P141.8 April May . . . June . . 1 ^A ft 1985 1986 January February March April May June July August . . . September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§>, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series.relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pates 10 and 11. Excludes series 36, for which data are not available. ^Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. 9 lixeludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available. 60 JULY 1986 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q | Minor Economic Process Marginal Employment Adjustments Timing Class Year and month EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT L, L,L L.C.L L, C, L 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (Hours) Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies L, Lg, U 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (Hours) (Thous.) 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (Ratio) u,c,c L, Lg, U 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (1967=100) 48. Employee hours in nonagncultural establishments (Ann. rate, bit. hours) 1984 January February March 0.407 0.434 0.420 123 129 124 173.95 175.61 174.92 360 348 350 0.421 0.435 0.484 124 125 134 176.54 176.34 177.29 3.4 3.3 3.3 365 358 368 0.486 0.448 0.458 138 128 129 177.68 178.12 178.93 40.5 40.5 40.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 405 397 386 0.483 0.497 0.523 136 137 145 178.73 179.90 180.16 January February March 40.5 40.1 40.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 378 402 389 0.493 0.500 0.500 140 141 141 180.23 180.17 181.38 April May June 40.3 40.4 40.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 387 383 392 0.468 0.467 0.498 132 132 141 181.05 181.65 181.88 July August September . . , 40.4 40.6 40.7 3.2 3.3 3.3 381 375 381 0.499 0.490 0.489 141 134 136 181.80 182.58 183.11 October November . . . December . . . 40. 40. 40.9 3.4 3.4 B>3.6 367 371 391 0.502 0.525 0.538 140 144 184.42 184.58 184.81 40.8 40. 40 3.5 3.4 3.4 375 384 393 B>0.543 0.495 0.488 143 142 138 185.63 185.29 185.41 3.4 3.4 P3.3 374 378 378 0.471 0.445 132 128 pl41 H>rl85.82 rl85.75 P185.56 40. 7 41, 1 40. 7 3.5 3.5 3.5 B>41. 1 40. 7 40.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 July August September . , , 40.6 40.5 40.6 October November , . . December . . . April May June 364 D345 348 1985 1986 January February March April May June 40 r40. p40.6 pO.497 July August September . . . October November . . . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17. *Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. JULY 1986 61 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q | Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Unemployment Comprehensive Employment—Continued Timing Class Year and month EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT - Continued U,C,C 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (Thous.) C,C,C 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (Thous.) L.CU 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (Thous.) U, Lg, U 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (Percent) L, Lg, U 37. Number of persons unemployed (Thous.) L, Lg, U L, Lg, U 43. Unemployment rate 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs' (Percent) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg 91. Average duration of unemployment (Weeks) Lg, Lg, Lg 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Percent) 1984 January February March 99,918 100,491 100,689 92,568 93,076 93,369 24,213 24,427 24,494 58.07 58.38 58.39 8,982 8,837 8,775 8.0 7.8 7.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 20.5 19.1 18.9 2.7 2.6 April May June 100,992 101,826 102,206 93,743 94,041 94,408 24,605 24,681 24,784 58.54 58.98 59.15 8,765 8,547 8,238 7.8 7.5 7.2 2.8 2.7 2.8 18.6 IB.6 13.1 2.5 2.5 2.3 July August September . . . 102,134 101,952 102,059 94,707 94,956 95,269 24,882 24,911 24,881 59.03 58.84 58.89 8,456 8,496 8,380 7.4 7.5 7.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 18.0 17.5 17.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 October November . . . December . . . 102,464 102,576 102,861 95,607 95,966 96,147 24,913 24,927 24,988 58.97 59.09 59.18 8,379 8,194 8,256 7.3 7.2 7.2 2.7 2.8 2.8 16.8 17.1 17.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 January February March 102,996 103,262 103,637 96,366 96,507 96,870 25,008 24,931 24,971 59.20 59.30 59.45 8,439 8,395 8,384 7.4 7.3 7.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 15.9 16.0 15.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 April May June 103,519 103,655 103,461 97,104 97,338 97,442 24,996 24,949 24,897 59.37 59,35 59.12 8,384 8,400 8,423 7.3 7.3 7.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 16.1 15.0 15.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 July August September . , . 103,751 104,115 104,502 97,672 97,890 98,128 24,875 24,880 24,843 59.21 59.34 59.46 8,401 8,133 8,271 7.3 7.1 7.1 2.8 2,8 2.8 15.5 1S.S 15.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 October November , . . December . . . 104,755 104,899 105,055 98,428 98,666 98,910 24,903 24,931 24,977 59.56 59.59 59.67 8,301 8,161 8,023 7.1 7.0 6.9 2.7 j>2.7 2.8 15.4 15.7 15.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 105,655 105,465 105,503 99,296 99,429 99,484 0)25,101 25,038 24,945 59.90 59.63 59,70 E>7,831 8,527 8,419 )6.7 7.3 7.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 14.9 15.3 14.4 1.8 2.0 1.9 105,670 105,950 (H>106,508 r99,783 H)r99,908 p99,819 25,038 r24,964 p24,859 59.70 59.77 |H>60.02 8,342 8,554 8,443 7.1 7.3 7.1 2.8 2.8 2.8 14.3 14.4 15.2 2.0 1985 1986 January February March April May June July August September . . . October November . . . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18. *Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 62 JULY 1986 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^ 9 Minor Economic Process Industrial Production Comprehensive Output and Income Timing Class Year and month PRODUCTION AND INCOME ccc CCC 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars 1984 52. Constant (1982) dollars 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars Personal income 223. Current dollars CCC ccc 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.). (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 Revised1 Revised1 Revised1 Revised1 ccc 47. Index of industrial production (1977 = 100) ccc 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (1977 = 100) C.L.L 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (1977 = 100) ccc 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 January February March 3,444.7 3,003.3 3,036.9 3,062.4 2,820.0 2,843.5 2,859.4 2,397.7 2,422.3 2,437.3 519.7 524.5 524.8 118.4 119.3 120.1 119.6 121.0 122.2 119.5 121.0 121.6 1,486.3 April May June 3,487.1 3,066.7 3,071.8 3,093.8 2,855.4 2,857.5 2,869.9 2,432.1 2,434.6 2,448.2 526.1 526.8 528.7 120, 121, 122.3 123.3 123.8 124.7 121.9 122.3 123.2 1,506.1 July August September . . , 3,507.4 120.9 135.9 162.3 2,887.0 2,887.6 2,903.9 2,466.2 2,466.7 2,484.0 530.4 531.6 532.6 123.2 123.5 123.3 126.4 127.7 127.2 123.9 123.2 123.1 1,510.3 October November . . . December . . . 3,520.4 165, 186. 3,217.0 2,898.5 2,910.0 2,932.5 2,475.8 2,486.4 2,515.6 532.5 535.1 537.4 122.7 123.4 123.3 127.0 127.5 127.4 123.3 123.8 123.4 1,509.5 January February March 3,547.0 3,227.3 3,258.3 3,273.8 2,933.9 2,951.4 2,952.0 2,500.3 2,516.8 2,517.9 538.2 537.3 539.2 123.6 123.7 124.0 127.8 127.2 128.0 123.2 123.8 123.9 1,521.1 April May June 3,567.6 3,302 3,288, 2,537.6 2,514.8 2,525.1 537.1 537.7 537.1 124.1 124.1 124.3 128.2 127.9 127.6 124.3 124.7 125.5 1,526.0 3,304.9 2,972.7 2,949.3 2,958.7 July August September . . . 3,603.8 3,315.4 3,320.5 3,333.9 2,962.8 2,962 2,963, 2,522.2 2,525.9 2,526.8 535.7 537.8 537.0 124. 125. 125.1 127.9 129.4 128.3 125.6 126.6 126.9 1,544.2 October November . . . December . . . 3,622.3 3,358.3 3,372.3 3,418.0 2,971.9 2,971.2 3,003.5 2,535.9 2,536.4 2,569.0 538.7 538.3 541.5 124.4 125.4 126.4 127.7 129.2 129.9 126.4 127.3 128.0 1,541.7 3,417.4 3,435.4 3,445 1 2,992.5 3,021.4 3,040.7 2,551.7 2,577.9 2,593.6 541.1 541.0 542.0 |H>126.7 125.6 124.4 (H>130.4 3,655.9 129.0 rl27.7 129.1 128.5 rl28.3 1,563.6 B>3,485, 1 3,475. 7 E>3,078.7 3,065.0 [H>2,630.0 E>p3,665.7 p3,051.9 rl25.2 rl24.7 P124.1 rl28.5 rl27.8 P126.7 rl29.3 [H)rl29.7 P129.6 [H>pl,565.7 p3,479.2 E> 544.0 542.8 P538.2 1985 1986 January . , February , March . . April . . . . May . . . . June . . . . 2,615.0 p2,603.7 July . . . . August . . September October . . November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40. ^ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page iii. JULY 1986 63 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued • • WiiM MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process j Q Capacity Utilization Timing Class Year and month PRODUCTION AND INCOME-Continued L, C, U 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing Orders and Deliveries L, C, U 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials L, L, L (Percent) L,L,L Manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 6. Current dollars (Percent) CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (Bil. dol.) 7. Constant (1982) dollars (Bil. dol.) L, L, L 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials (Bil. dol.) L.L.L 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil. dol.) L.L.L L, Lg, U 96, Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries 32. Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries @ (Percent reporting) (Bil. do!.) 1984 January February March 79.2 80.0 80.4 81.6 82.1 82.5 99.55 101.79 104.45 95.72 97.60 99.76 84.27 84.37 81.78 4.38 5.44 E>8.14 324.50 329.94 338.09 63 68 April May June 80.7 80.7 81.1 82.6 82.6 82.8 97.31 100.95 98.34 92.67 96.24 93.57 81.84 82.11 80.41 ,85 .06 0.61 339.93 343.99 344.60 71 70 66 July August September , . , 81.7 ©81.8 81.3 83.0 1 82,7 101.98 101,86 98.21 97.03 96.64 93.18 82.58 82.52 79.75 0.00 348.73 350.34 350.34 60 54 58 October November . . . December . . . 81.1 81.2 80.9 81, 81. 81.3 96.51 104.43 101.31 91.56 98.90 95.84 81.84 83.35 82.57 -2.63 346.04 348.08 345.44 52 50 45 January February March . . . . . . 80.7 80.4 80.5 81, 81, 81, 105.45 102.47 99.54 99.67 96.76 93.91 86.65 83.67 81.88 3.48 0.75 -2.58 348.92 349.67 347.10 47 48 46 April May June 80.5 80.3 80.1 80, 80. 80.1 99.84 102.97 106.78 94.10 96.69 100.17 83.31 84.09 83.17 -2.22 0.25 4.12 344.87 345.13 349.25 44 44 44 July August September . . . 80.1 80.7 80.1 79.5 79.9 79.5 104.37 107.66 106.64 97.72 100.81 100.23 83.51 84.78 85.29 1.89 351.14 353.49 356.48 44 42 42 October November . . . December . , . 79.6 80.2 80.4 79.3 79.2 80,1 104.50 103.80 107.53 97.66 97.01 100.40 86.25 86.90 85.70 -1.98 -3.21 1.75 354.49 351.28 353.04 46 42 46 January February . . . . March 80.7 79.8 r79.1 80.2 79.6 r78.5 E>108.19 107.54 104.68 E>89.40 r87.70 83.92 2.56 2.00 1.99 355.60 357.60 @>359.59 46 48 50 April May June r79.5 r79.2 P78.6 r78.7 78.3 P77.9 103.75 rlO2.62 P104.77 B>101.31 rl00.70 97.93 96.87 r95.64 P97.64 87.03 r83.67 P84.35 -2.84 r-1,05 pi. 00 356.74 r355,7O P356.69 50 55 50 1985 1986 July August September . , , October November . . . December . . , See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on paces 12, 20, and 21. 64 JULY 1 9 8 6 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS E 9 Minor Economic Process c,c,c C,C,C Manufacturing and trade sales 57. Constant (1982) dollars 56. Current dollars (Mil. dot.) (Mil. dol.) C,L,C 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods C, L, U- U, L, U UCC Sales of retail stores 54. Current dollars (1977=100) (Mil. dol.) FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Formation of Business Enterprises Consumption and Trade Timing Class Year and month • 1 fell CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued 59. Constant (1982) dollars L,L,L 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles 58. Index of consumer sentiment ® (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 1 Revised UL.L 12. Index of net business formation (1st Q 1966-100) (1967=100) 13. Number of new business incorporations (Number) 1 Revised 1984 January February March 402,489 402,395 404,612 387,713 387,590 388,114 116.2 116.9 117.3 105,669 105,850 104,322 101,507 101,583 100,021 102.8 100.1 97.4 .0 E) 123.2 122.6 121.6 52,674 53,535 53,075 April May June 408,342 412,524 413,976 392,029 395,483 398,311 118.3 117.7 118.5 106,794 107,354 108,911 102,195 102,731 104,121 106.7 96.1 98.1 95.5 121.4 120. 120, 53,298 50,736 53,884 July August September . . . 412,233 413,300 412,276 397,143 398,008 396,816 119.1 118.4 118.3 107,333 106,818 108,143 102,613 101,731 102,798 105.0 96.6 99.1 100.9 120, 121. 122.5 53,211 52,025 52,646 October November . . . December . . . 414,243 417,635 421,613 399,255 402,004 405,167 118.5 119.6 119.7 108,816 109,899 110,078 103,143 103,973 104,043 108.4 96.3 95.7 92.9 121.4 120.0 119.5 52,587 53,838 53,558 417,350 418,218 420,346 401,294 402,557 404,006 118.8 119.1 119.8 110,511 111,935 111,999 104,256 105,301 104,966 110.2 96.0 93.7 93.7 121.4 122.7 122.0 52,768 54,765 55,785 423,215 V424.379 r418,416 408,157 r410,742 r402,237 119.5 120.0 120.4 114,256 rll3,992 rl!3,472 106,881 106,734 106,247 112.8 94.6 91.8 96.5 121.6 119.6 120.2 r55,659 55,392 55,006 July August September . . . 422,483 430,417 428,998 406,135 414,183 413,305 120.1 121.5 121.8 114,430 116,276 0)119,118 107,144 108,669 111,221 (H) 126.4 94. 92. 92, 122. 121, 121.3 54,560 55,644 56,419 October November . . . December . . . 426,033 431,965 (H>432,797 409,867 413,148 413,500 120.8 122.7 124.2 114,785 115,433 116,861 106,976 107,081 108,005 111.6 90 93.9 121.5 120.5 119.5 58,251 57,320 57,785 431,957 426,854 420,230 413,892 414,355 412,062 123.9 123.2 rl22.5 117,349 117,200 116,684 108,056 109,023 109,665 111.1 95.6 95.9 95.1 118.4 121.2 r!21.8 57,452 E)61,062 r58,981 r428,455 p420,736 [H>r422,645 p414,544 (NA) E>rl24.4 rl23.9 P123.7 rll7,715 rll8,515 pll8,700 111,157 Dill,596 pill,560 P117.8 96.2 94.8 99.3 rl23.1 rll9.9 P119.9 59,880 (NA) 1985 January February March April May June 1986 January February March April May June (NA) July August September . . . October , . November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23. *See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. KCII JULY 1986 65 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q j Minor Economic Process Business Investment Commitments Timing Class U,L U,L L.L.L 10. Current dollars (Bil. dot.) (Bil. dol.) HI. dot.) Revised 1984 24. Current dollars 20. Constant (1982) dollars L.C.U L.L.L Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods industries Contracts and orders for plant and equipment Year and month FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings1 27. Constant (1982) dollars Square feet of floor space (Bil. dol.) (Millions) C, Lg, Lg U, Lg, U Square meters of floor space' (Millions) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.) (Bit. dol.) 9 January February March 29.47 30.99 30.93 30.02 31.51 31.46 25.72 27.02 26.76 26.40 27.69 27.48 72.72 64.41 74.95 ,76 ,98 96 26.92 April May June 30.27 33.53 32.06 30.67 33.97 32.64 26.33 28.56 27.72 26.94 29.29 28.57 79.78 82.49 74.90 41 .66 96 .12 July August September . , . 32.94 31.11 31.66 33.27 31.70 32.25 28.14 26.74 27.39 28.78 27.61 28.24 79.55 82.65 75.84 .39 68 7.05 27.31 October November , . . December . . . 29.97 31.43 31.49 30.35 32.07 31.47 25.26 26.84 26.89 25.97 27.79 27.21 79.04 83.75 86.73 7.34 7.78 8.06 29.10 27.81 33.80 32.09 27.74 D35.81 32.91 23.63 29.49 27.21 23.90 1)31.86 28.43 81.14 82.48 87.41 7.54 7.66 8.12 29.94 30.32 30.66 r32.63 30.49 31.33 33.34 25.46 25.59 27.98 26.04 26.72 29.14 91.95 83.99 69.68 8.54 7.80 6.47 27.56 31.83 32.02 34.30 32.40 32.93 35.00 26.68 27.55 29.24 27.74 28.89 30.43 91.89 91.41 [H>93.19 8.54 8.49 E>8.66 24.17 27.19 78.46 89. is 92! 06 94^37 1985 January February March April May )une July August September . . . October November . . . December . . . 32.63 30.59 ED35.04 33.32 31.34 34.61 27.09 25.79 H>30.57 28.32 27.02 30.58 92.00 92.61 79.23 8.55 8.60 7.36 27.63 32.69 30.18 27.41 34.28 31.04 24.29 28,64 26.54 24.41 30.64 27.78 70.66 78.41 69.96 6.56 30.57 r29,92 P30.95 31.07 31.05 p32.77 26.18 r26.14 P26.74 27.18 r27.73 P29.06 84.26 76.71 75.88 99 .35 97! is 94.'58 1986 January February March April May June P24.50 p92.*63 (NA) 7.05 (NA) July August September . , , October November . . , December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 Sec "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 66 JULY 1986 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS | J | Minor Economic Process Residential Construction Commitments and Investment Business Investment Expenditures Timing Class C t Lg,Lg C Lg, Lg Expenditures for new plant quipment Year and month FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued 61. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 100. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C Lg, Lg C Lg, U 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (1977 = 100) Revised1 1984 C Lg, C Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, C Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars 86. Total 87. Structures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 Revised1 L,L,L 28. New private housing units started 88. Producers' durable equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, thous.) L,L,L L.L.L 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (1967-100) Revised1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 January February March 337.95 338.76 343.88 348.14 360.50 127.1 128.5 130.4 394.4 133.5 260.9 1,892 >2,213 1,671 144.8 [H>158.5 137.6 169.7 April . May . June . 349.97 348.97 360.22 371.74 380.48 131.2 133.3 135.5 419.5 141.3 278.2 ,880 ,786 ,853 141.6 138.8 144.7 173.2 July August . . September 361.43 359.05 372.60 380.07 393.49 137.0 139.1 139.2 427.1 142.9 284.2 ,733 ,589 1,702 128.0 122.0 121.5 171.2 October . . November December 368.29 364.67 387.96 392.68 408.43 139.1 139.8 138.4 447.6 147.5 300.1 1,532 1,649 1,607 118.8 131.0 129.7 168.3 January . . February . March . . . 371.16 365.27 374.91 389.27 407.68 140.4 140.0 140.2 442.7 149.9 292.8 1,804 1,632 1,849 130.8 135.2 139.9 172.4 April . . . May June , .. 387.83 381.52 400.96 397.75 403.49 142.0 141.9 140.7 463.0 H>154.1 308.9 1,851 1,684 1,693 135.1 137.7 136.9 175.1 July August September 388.90 381.78 397.96 408.25 397.48 141.3 D143. 0 142. 2 463.1 152.3 310.9 1,673 1,737 1,653 136.3 142.1 147.2 180.0 October . . November December H) 397.74 390.39 409.30 410.53 0>476.9 152.4 0)324.5 H>423.97 139.6 141.7 141.4 1,784 1,654 1,882 135.8 133.0 146.7 181.5 1985 1986 376.08 365.87 385.23 398.64 401.72 142.9 141.1 139.1 457.8 148.1 309.7 2,034 2,001 1,960 148.4 144.2 146.3 186.3 April May June a387.42 a375.00 402.84 P390.84 140.3 rl39.6 P138.0 P454.8 P132.6 P322.2 r2,019 rl,860 pi,845 150.3 142.6 142.9 E>P193.1 July August . . September a388.87 a375.64 October . . November December a396.61 a382.56 January . . . February . . March CNA) See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25. 'See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii. ItO JULY 1986 67 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS , . . NVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month L, L,L L,L,L 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars Revised January February March 36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars 3 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 3 -10.67 H>85ii April May June 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value Smoothed1 Actual (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann, rate, bil. dol.) 1984 Inventories on Hand and on Order Inventory Investment Revised (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) U,L 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order2 (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Manufacturing and trade inventories 71. Book value (Bil. dol.) 3 70. Constant (1982) dollars (Bil. dol.) Revised Lg, Lg, Lg 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book value (Bil. dol.) I Lg, l g Lg, Lg, Lg 77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars 78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Bil dol.) (Ratio) 3 ©162.94 66.35 37.59 46.56 68.10 ©88.9 80.1 2.81 2.82 2.35 524.73 532.14 538.82 581.36 593.08 598.50 81.16 81.90 83.14 1.51 1.53 1.54 211.54 214.36 216.71 84.44 63.10 -4.13 ©88.73 87.94 59.55 85.3 54.9 23.0 1.81 1.66 -0.22 545.93 550.50 552.42 604.62 609.46 610.60 84.14 85.11 86.38 1.54 1.54 1.53 218.52 220.18 219.97 53.4 July August September 6CL6 63.48 49.10 27.62 44.31 38.48 41.44 57.0 54.6 45.1 2.61 -0.18 -0.05 557.17 561.72 565.48 615.49 620.82 623.89 86.95 87.80 88.55 1.55 1.56 1.57 ©222.58 222.40 222.35 October November December 33^9 11.41 22.08 -5.39 38.05 24.87 14.87 39.3 29.9 26.3 -2.43 -1.56 -1.06 568.75 571.24 573.43 626.53 629.46 630.89 88.89 89.27 89.69 1.57 1.56 1.56 219.92 218.36 217.30 January February March 23^2 29.90 14.93 -19.46 12.45 14.34 10.80 28.4 32.9 -2.1 0.65 -0.48 -3.07 575.80 578.54 578.37 632.39 634.14 634.21 89.69 89.86 90.12 1.57 1.58 1.57 217.95 217.47 214.40 April May June v'.k 7.42 -25.43 7.82 4.71 -5.76 -7.94 2.0 r-8.6 r27.9 -0.94 -1.54 1.68 578.53 r577.81 r580.14 635.58 634.35 635.39 90.12 ©90.13 89.87 1.56 rl.54 ©1.58 213.46 211.93 213.61 July August September CL7 7.88 -17.23 -5.38 -3.32 -1.88 -2.71 r-0.3 -23.2 8.8 -0.46 0.31 -0.11 580.12 578.18 578.92 636.56 635.86 635.69 89.26 88.86 88.26 1.57 1.53 1.54 213.15 213.46 213.35 October November December -h'.z 23.60 12.84 5.47 -2.29 5.34 12.16 39.1 7.1 4.6 -0.34 -1.28 1.83 582.17 582.76 583.15 637.74 638.64 638.43 87.58 88.24 88.37 1.56 1.55 1.55 213.69 212.41 214.24 33.83 18.79 44.87 15.68 18.37 25.93 21.8 2.5 36.0 -0.26 1.43 -1.10 584.97 585.18 588.18 640.58 641.50 645.87 87.92 87.53 87.62 1.55 1.56 1.57 213.99 215.41 214.31 16.85 p-64.52 (NA) 29.67 P12.95 <NA) r5.1 p-23.8 (NA) -1.76 p-1.39 (NA) ©r588.60 P586.61 (NA) ©648.02 P644.47 (NA) 87.80 P87.66 (NA) rl.53 p i . 55 (NA) 212.56 P211.17 (NA) 1985 1986 January February March April . May June 9\9.6 July . . August September October, . , November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pates 13, 15, 26, and 27. 1( rhis series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. a Series 38 reached its high value (3.02) in October 1983. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 68 JULY 1986 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q J Minor Economic Process Stock Prices Sensitive Commodity Prices Timing Class Year and month L.L.L U.L.L U,L 98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials 1 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial, materials20 99. Change in sensitive materials pricesx (Percent) (1967-100) L,L,L Smoothed3 Actual (Percent) PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (Percent) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © (194143 = 10) Profits and Profit Margins L,C,L 16. Current dollars 18. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, oil. dol.) 5 (Ann. rate, toll, dol.) Revised Lt L, L L.CL Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj* Corporate profits after tax Revised 1984 U,L L.L.L 3 79. Current dollars 80. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) Revised (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 3 Revised 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to corporate domestic income1 (Percent) 5 Revised3 January February March -0.84 1.27 0.19 283.6 283.6 289.2 -0.33 0.69 0.65 0.77 0.45 0.35 166.39 157.25 157.44 0)146.4 E>142.7 159.6 156.1 6.6 April May June -0.26 -0.84 -0.78 288.6 0)289.5 286.2 -0.16 -0.36 -0.73 0.36 0.22 -0.19 157.60 156.55 153 12 144.*8 140 .'3 17O.'i 166,6 6.*4 July August September -1.76 -1.10 0.71 280.1 275.6 274.0 -1.55 -1.08 0.21 -0.65 -1.00 -0.96 151.08 164.42 166.11 135,*8 13O.*3 17O.*5 165.*4 5.7 -0.73 0.10 -0.37 266.4 268.3 261.9 -1.21 0.25 -0.89 -0.75 -0.47 -0.43 164.82 166.27 164.48 134 .'i 127*7 177*1 ni'.i 5.*6 January February March -0.37 -1.59 -0.72 255.8 253.1 252.4 -0.85 -1.16 -0.48 -0.56 -0.73 -0.90 171.61 180.88 179.42 126*.6 118-7 178^7 17U7 5*1 April May June -0.03 0.66 0.14 257.1 252.0 242.9 0.52 -0.22 -1.00 -0.60 -0.22 -0.15 180.62 184.90 188.89 126.7 118.8 187.2 179.8 5.0 July August September -0.03 -0.34 -0.34 240.7 239.8 238.0 -0.31 -0.26 -0.40 -0.37 -0.52 -0.42 192.54 188.31 184.06 133*4 124*9 200.* 5 192*3 5.3 October November December . ; 0.59 -0.31 -0.31 236.9 234.5 235.0 0.18 -0.49 -0.09 -0.24 -0.20 -0.18 186.18 197.45 207.26 139.4 130*1 189*2 180! 2 5.3 0.10 r-1.14 r0.17 236.9 233.3 223.1 0.27 r-1.02 r-1.21 -0.12 r-0.19 r-0.47 208.19 219.37 232.33 135*2 124.8 0)207.3 ©196.6 4*9 1.99 0.79 -0.41 219.9 221.3 225.0 r-0.59 -0.26 0.25 237.98 238.46 (H>245.30 (NA) (NA) October November December .,. 1985 1986 January February March . ... April May . , June 6 July August September 227.5 0.64 0.59 0.27 7 (NA) (NA) (NA) 242.30 October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29. x The following series reached their high values before 1984: series 98 (2.83) in Feb. 1983, series 99 actual (2.63) in Feb. 1983, series 99 smoothed (1.81) in Apr. 1983, and series 22 (6.7) in 3d Q 1983. 2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3See footnote 1 on page 68. **IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; s 6 7 CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. See footnote 3 on page 68. Average for July 1-25. Average for July 2, 9, 16, and 23. JULY 1986 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q H Minor Economic Process Year and month Cash Flows Profits and Profit Margins—Continued Timing Class U.L.L L,L,L 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corp. domestic income 1 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Percent) (Cents) 2 L.L.L 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (1977 = 100) Revised 1984 January February . . . March 7.3 April , May , June . Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share U,L L.L.L 2 Revised PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued Corporate net cash flow 34. Current dollars Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, U. Lg 63. 'idex of u labor cost, Ir'«-hess sector 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations 35. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 2 Revised (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 2 Revised (1977=100) 2 Revised (Dollars) Lg, Lg, Lg Revised 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data Actual data as a percent of trend (1977-100) 2 Lg, Lg, Lg Revised Revised (Percent) (Percent) 2 2 Revised-1 8.6 345.8 320.5 158.2 0.683 134,8 134.9 134.3 90.6 90.2 89.4 72.7 7.8 99.3 349.3 319.5 158.3 0.684 134.5 134.3 134.1 89.1 88.6 88.0 72^9 July August September . . 7.6 99.1 348.9 312.4 160.2 0.694 133.6 133.8 134.6 87.3 87.0 87.1 73.2 October November . . , December . . . 7.9 98.8 357.8 312.6 161.7 0.699 135.4 135.6 136.6 87.2 87.0 87.2 73^3 98.7 361.0 307.1 163.1 0.704 137.1 136.9 137.0 87.1 86.6 86.2 73^4 4.9 1985 January . February March . . 7.9 April . . May . . June . . 8.2 98.9 370.8 310.7 164.0 0.708 136.3 136.6 137.0 85.4 85.2 85.0 73*.5 July August September . , . 3.8 .3 382.8 320.9 164.4 0.705 137.2 136. 137. 84.7 84.0 84.0 73^4 October November . . . December . . . 7.9 98.2 .4 E>329.4 167.3 0.716 138.7 137.9 138.4 84 83, 4.2 73^7 83.5 1986 January , . February . March . . . April . May , June , 8.5 p3.6 99.0 380.9 325.2 167.0 0)0.721 (NA) (NA) P99.1 (NA) (NA) @>pl67.4 (NA) 137. 138. E>139. 138.0 138.4 P138.7 82.7 82.8 83.0 [H>73.'7 81.7 81.6 P81.4 July . . . . August . . September October . . November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30. 1 IVA> inventory valuation adjustment? CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment, 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 70 JULY 1986 (NA) CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month MONEY AND CREDIT Money L,L,L L, C, U 85. Change in money supply M l 102. Change in money supply M2 * (Percent) (Percent) U,L 104. Change in total liquid assets l (Percent) Velocity of Money L.L.L 105. Money supply M l in 1982 dollars (Bil. dol.) L.L.L 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (Bil. dol.) 1984 C.C.C 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml Credit Flows C Lg, C 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (Ratio) (Ratio) Revised2 Revised2 L.L.L L.L.L 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 112. Net change in business loans (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised2 January February March 0.68 0.49 0.60 0.62 0.74 0.52 0.81 0.85 1.16 501.7 502.2 503.9 2,079.3 2,086,6 2,092.0 6.881 1.365 1.371 Dl.375 71,74 100.58 104.24 8.62 59.39 0)108.61 April May June 0.47 0.58 0.74 0.68 0.62 0.53 1.04 1.04 1.04 504.3 506.4 508.8 2,098.2 2,107.7 2,113.6 6.902 1.367 1.361 1.364 123.28 132.04 108.66 86.60 77.46 100.70 July August September . . . -0.02 0.24 0.62 0.40 0.63 0.79 1.03 0.76 1.01 507. 506. 507. 2,115.1 2,119.5 2,128.7 6.934 1.370 ,368 .369 114.86 101.33 0)143.70 33.50 17.39 40.54 October November . . . December . . . -0.20 0.84 0.78 0.60 1.06 1.09 0.67 0.72 0.95 504.9 508.2 510.8 2,134.5 2,153.2 2,171.0 B>6.940 1.362 1.357 1.355 81.13 74.20 41.34 47.75 52.68 4.13 January February March 0.79 1.14 0.51 1.10 0.91 0.31 0.72 0.88 0.64 513.8 518.1 518.3 2,190.7 2,203.8 2,200.3 6.881 1.345 1.345 1.348 80.33 58.60 .93.16 53.58 21.95 26.83 April May June 0.61 1.18 1.44 0.21 0.72 1.10 0.19 0.52 rO.77 519.6 524.6 530.9 2,197.3 2,208.4 2,227.1 6.801 357 341 333 84.44 66.58 72.70 14.87 27.46 -45.89 July August September . . . 0.90 1.44 1.11 0.69 0.77 0.56 0.48 0.76 0.75 534.6 541.2 546.1 2,238.3 2,250.7 2,259.1 6.671 1.328 1.320 1.318 57.72 67.37 65.51 16.58 3.66 -14.63 October November . . . December . . . 0.44 0.96 1.05 0.35 0.49 0.59 0.57 rl.00 rl.O2 546.5 548.7 552.5 2,258.8 2,257.1 2,262.2 6.590 1.323 1.322 1.332 123.61 71.23 106.27 65.16 64.68 38.89 0.10 0.61 1.17 0.12 0.30 0.57 0.57 0.47 rO.34 551.1 556.7 565.6 2,257.5 2,273.1 2,295.7 6.563 330 333 330 -20.22 54.20 44.02 56.50 -51.02 r-29.54 1.21 H>1.93 pi.21 rl.14 rl.00 pO.77 r0.58 p0.82 (NA) 574.0 584.1 H>p588.5 2,328.4 r2,347.5 E>p2,354.7 330 313 pi.304 (NA) p6.365 r-40.32 r21.73 p-4.40 1985 1986 January February March April May June July August September . . . S 1.29 October November . . . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32. Series 102 reached its high value (2.79) in January 1983; series 104 reached its high value (1.31) in January 1983. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii. 3 Average for weeks ended July 7 and 14. ICO JULY 1986 71 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q Minor Economic Process Credit Flows—Continued Timing Class Year and month U,L 113. Net change in consumer Installment credit (Ann. rate, bil. do!.) 78.66 69.41 60.96 April May June (Ann. rate, percent) Revised 1984 January February March 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding Bank Reserves Credit Difficulties L,L,L L.L.L MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) L, Lr L 14. Current liabilities of business failures1© (Mil. dol.) L.L.L 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (Percent) L, U, U 93. Free reserves © Interest Rates L, Lg, U 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal L, Lg, Lg 119. Federal funds rate © C, Lg, Lg 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills © Reserve © (Mil. dot.) (Mil. dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 2 14.6 17.3 19.4 492,968 1,783.3 1,713.1 3,479.7 1.84 E>1.78 1.85 -102 376 -241 715 567 952 9.56 9.59 9.91 8.93 9.03 9.44 74.64 114.13 95.18 19. 21. B>21. 635,480 2,429.4 3,074.3 3,427.4 2.06 1.96 2.02 -742 -2,408 -2,526 1,234 2,988 3,300 10.29 10.32 11.06 9.69 9.90 9.94 July August September . . , 73.58 80.62 63.04 14. 12. 12. 2,783.7 1,968.7 2,045.6 1.96 1.93 2.10 -5,311 476,812 E>-7,328 -6,614 5,924 >8,017 7,242 11.23 1)11.64 11.30 10.13 ©10.49 10.41 October November . . . December . . . 70.61 71.95 75.31 14. 13. 9.2 674,436 1,471.3 2,763.7 2,328.4 1.91 1.97 2.09 -5,397 -3,924 -2,333 6,017 4,617 3,186 9.99 9.43 8.38 9.97 8.79 8.16 January February March 75.16 82.16 99.59 13.2 10.3 13.0 533,160 rl,821.0 2,409.8 3,485.8 2.20 2.19 2.40 -650 -386 -827 1,395 1,289 1,593 8.35 8.50 8.58 7.76 8,22 8.57 April May June 90.52 75.96 52.69 10.0 9.4 3.7 P3.279.8 P3.261.9 p2,995.6 -585 -530 -300 1,323 1,334 1,205 8.27 552,300 .00 ,56 ,01 July August September . . . 81.43 72.61 EH23.96 9.3 8.5 10.3 . 652,844 p2,150.5 p3,162.4 pi,925.3 -252 -246 -623 1,107 1,073 1,289 7.92 October November . . . December . , . 78.70 67.72 77.72 15.6 10.9 11.8 0)965,412 pi,824.6 P5.026.9 pi,707.8 2.32 -434 -813 -260 1,187 1,741 1,318 7.99 8.05 8.27 7,17 7.20 7.07 91.86 61.19 37.04 12.6 4.1 3.8 rp3,590.4 rp3,518.2 rp2,746.6 2.27 2.29 2.41 341 213 135 770 884 761 8.14 p504,260 ,04 03 59 r51.55 P64.67 2.7 8.0 P3.7 (NA) (NA) (NA) -92 r-38 pl45 893 876 p803 1985 05 18 1986 January February March April May June <NA) July . . . . . . . . August September . . . 06 12 6.21 3 6.70 "5.84 JULY 1986 ItCIt October November . . . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pifes 13, 32, 33, and 34. x Series 14 reached its high value (829.2) in July 1983. a See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii. 9 Average for weeks ended July 2, 9, 16, and 23. "Average for weeks ended July 3, 10, 17, and 24. 72 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^ g Minor Economic Process Interest Rates—Continued Timing Class Year and month MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued Lg, Lg, Lg 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate C Lg, Lg 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds © bonds © (Percent) (Percent) U, Lg, Lg 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20bond average© (Percent) Outstanding Debt Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 118. Secondary market yields onFHA mortgages © 67. Sank rates on short-term business 109. Average prime rate charged by loans © banks ® 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 72. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 101. Constant (1982) dollars (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (Percent) Revised1 1984 12.65 12.80 13.36 11.29 11.44 11.90 9.63 9.64 9.93 13.08 13.20 13.68 11.06 11.00 11.00 11.21 382,794 388,578 393,658 268,086 273,035 282,086 260,531 264,569 271,498 12.75 12.80 12.85 13.64 14.41 9.96 10.49 .67 13.80 H>15.01 14.91 12.45 E>14.49 12.17 12.89 |H)13.00 11.93 12.39 12.60 399,878 409,389 417,321 289,303 295,758 304,150 278,176 284,110 292,452 13.04 13.33 13.49 14.25 13.54 13.37 12.82 12.23 11.97 10.42 9.99 10.10 14.58 14.21 13.99 H>13.29 13.00 E>13.00 12.97 423,453 430,171 435,424 306,942 308,391 311,769 294,570 297,101 301,809 13.57 13.72 13.77 13.02 12.40 12.47 11.66 11.25 11.21 10.25 10.17 9.95 13.43 12.90 12.99 11.29 12.58 11.77 11.06 441,308 447,304 453,580 315,748 320,138 320,482 305,366 308,716 309,644 13.94 14.04 14.10 January February March 12.46 12.39 12.85 11.15 11.35 11.78 9.51 9.65 9.77 13.01 13.27 13.43 10.10 10.61 10.50 10.50 459,843 466,690 474,989 324,947 326,776 329,012 314,262 316,337 319,119 14.25 14.32 14.51 April May June 12.45 11.85 11.33 11.42 10.96 10.36 9.42 9,01 8.69 12.97 12.28 11.89 9.90 10.50 10.31 9.78 482,532 488,862 493,253 330,251 332,539 328,715 319,701 321,294 318,214 14.61 14.87 14.92 July August September . . . 11.28 11.61 11.66 10.51 10.59 10.67 8.81 9.08 9.27 12.12 11.99 12.04 9.27 9.50 9.50 9.50 500,039 506,090 516,420 330,097 330,402 329,183 319,861 321,716 322,412 15.08 15.24 15.49 October November . , . December . , . 11.51 11.17 10.42 10.56 10.08 9.60 9.08 8.54 8.43 11.87 11.28 10.70 9.68 9.50 9.50 9.50 522,978 528,621 535,098 334,613 340,003 343,244 325,183 328,823 331,317 15.57 15.68 15.66 10.33 9.76 8.95 9.51 9.07 8.13 8.08 7.44 7.08 10.78 10.59 9.77 9.29 9.50 9.50 9.10 542,753 547,852 550,939 E>347,952 343,700 r341,238 337,163 r337,955 H>r340,217 15.88 15.95 15.99 8.71 9.09 9.39 7.59 8.02 8.23 7.20 7.54 7.87 9.80 10.07 9.98 r555,235 8.83 8.50 E)p560,625 8.50 r337,878 r339,689 p339,322 r339,576 r339,689 p339,622 15.93 8.13 January February March April May June July August September . . , October November . . . December . . . 1985 1986 January February March April May June July August September . . . 2 9.11 2 7.68 3 7.50 4 8.34 October November . , . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35. J See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. Average for weeks ended July 4, 11, 18, and 25. 3 Average for weeks ended July 3, 10, 17, and 24. "Average for July 1 through 25. 2 I M J I JULY 1986 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and month 950. Twelve leading indicator components (series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,106, 111) 1-month span 6-month span 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (series 41, 47, 51, 57) 1-month span 6-month span 952. S indicator components (series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101,109) 1-month span 6-month span 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas l 963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 186 industries 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1984 January February March 58.3 70.8 50.0 75.0 70.8 62.5 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 8.3 75.0 75.0 66.7 66.7 75.0 67.5 85.0 7.5 80.0 52.5 42.5 36.3 72.5 70.6 76.5 90.2 56.9 67.8 72.7 67.6 78.1 76.5 77.0 April May June 58.3 41.7 25.0 25.0 26.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 83.3 66.7 66.7 83, 83. 83- 97.5 15.0 35.0 35.0 50.0 22.5 41, 31. 92. 66.7 72.5 36.3 67 62 65, 75.1 69.2 65.1 July August September . . . 16.7 37.5 75.0 25.0 33, 29, 75.0 87.5 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 83.3 75.0 66.7 83, 66. 66. 37.5 42,5 67.5 7.5 42.5 7.5 19. 52. 76. 27.5 35. 13. 62, 55 50, 63.2 59.2 58.6 October November .. . December .. . 33.3 70.8 41.7 66, 58, 50.0 62.5 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 58.3 50.0 66.7 66. 66. 58.3 25.0 70.0 60.0 10.0 20.0 17.5 5.9 72.5 71.6 33.3 17.6 29.4 63.0 53.5 57.0 53.2 49.7 54.9 January February March 70.8 50.0 33.3 62.5 50.0 58.3 50.0 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 66.7 50.0 58.3 50.0 50.0 66.7 35.0 22.5 85.0 40.0 40.0 47.5 11.8 72.5 84.3 33.3 41.2 64.7 52.4 47.8 53.8 49.2 47.8 43.0 April May June 33.3 70.8 54.2 50.0 r58.3 66.7 100.0 62.5 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 41.7 50.0 33.3 58.3 50.0 50.0 12.5 77.5 77.5 55.0 67. 67, 19.6 45.1 86.3 64.7 58.8 66.7 49.2 51.6 47.0 45.9 44.3 44.3 83.3 r79.2 83.3 50.0 100.0 r37.5 75.0 100.0 100.0 41.7 50.0 r75.0 58.3 r50.0 50.0 27.5 87.5 65.0 87, 92, 97, 9.8 82.4 59.8 64.7 13.7 60.8 56.2 56.8 50.8 48.9 50.8 54.1 83.3 75.0 45.8 50.0 87.5 100.0 100.0 87.5 50.0 91.7 41.7 r50.0 58.3 75.0 66.7 75.0 52.5 95.0 75.0 80.0 80.0 23.5 74.5 27.5 64.7 35.3 66.7 61.9 57.6 59.5 57.0 57.0 55.9 62.5 45.8 54.5 50.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 75.0 3 66.7 66.7 r75.0 83.3 50.0 58.3 22, 22, 72. r75.0 p67.5 56.9 52.9 62.7 P47.1 (NA) 59.7 53.5 45.1 r53.B r54.1 P48.1 1985 July August September . . . 62, 58. r62. October November . . . December . . . 75.0 37.5 r?5.0 1986 January February March April May June r62.5 50.0 r54.2 2 75.0 45.8 63.6 a 100.0 25.0 3 0.0 16. 41. "25.0 r45.0 r45.0 P55.0 25.5 P74.5 (NA) r54.1 r50.5 P44.1 July August September . , , October November . . . December . , . NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6 month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter, Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p l f , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 36. 1 Figures are the percent of components declining. 2 Hxcludes series 36, for which data are not available. Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. 4 Hxcludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available. 74 JULY 1986 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued Year and month 964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34 durable goods industries 965. Newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries 1-month span 9-month span 1-quarter January February March 67.6 50.0 52.9 91.2 79.4 85.3 71 April May June 35.3 58.8 26.5 75.0 52.9 41.2 59 July August September . . . 55.9 51. 41. 44.1 61.8 52.9 36 October November . . . December , . . 55.9 55.9 52.9 29.4 55.9 44.1 65 January February March 52.9 35.3 55.9 45.6 63.2 52.9 56 April May June 47.1 60.3 61.8 64.7 54.4 50.0 39 July August September . . , 55.9 55.9 45.6 67.6 47.1 61.8 48 October November . . . December . . . 57.4 50.0 35.3 52.9 47.1 52.9 p59 55.9 44.1 42.6 r41.2 P47.1 (NA) 966. Industrial pro- . duction, 24 industries 967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials ® 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks 1 © 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies 2 © 1-month span 6-month span 87.5 91.7 64.6 95.8 91.7 87.5 38.5 61.5 65.4 73. 65, 42, 52.1 10.6 60.6 41.5 25.5 58.7 76 56 83.3 66.7 70.8 50.0 50.0 42.3 34.6 30.8 30.8 43.6 36.2 36.2 30.4 37.0 37.0 76 58 66.7 43.8 66.7 66.7 62.5 50.0 34.6 46.2 46.2 23.1 15.4 15.4 34.8 93.5 73.9 60.9 54.3 65.2 68 '54 79.2 43.8 45.8 41.7 37.5 45.8 30.8 57.7 19.2 15.4 19.2 34.6 34.8 78.3 26.1 82.6 76.1 91.3 68 '49 47.9 62.5 41.7 58.3 62.5 66.7 23.1 38.5 57.7 23.1 23.1 23.1 89.1 93.5 37.0 77.8 73.3 85.6 70 52 50.0 52.1 66.7 62.5 75.0 68.8 76.9 38.5 23.1 23. 38. 46. 75.6 77.8 82.2 73.3 72 p5O 45.8 72.9 56.3 70.8 62.5 70.8 38.5 46.2 46.2 38. 46. 38, 76.7 30.0 11.1 75.6 82.2 86.0 70 (NA) 54.2 75.0 39.6 52.1 62.5 58.3 81.3 68.8 66.7 42.3 23.1 57.7 53.8 53.8 53.8 55.6 88.9 86.7 88.1 92.9 90.5 (NA) 83.3 37.5 r33.3 r70.8 r45.8 p47.9 61.5 38.5 34.6 46.2 60.5 81.0 94.0 90.5 90.5 4-Q moving average 1-month span 9-month span 1-month 9-month span (4-quarter span) 1984 1985 1986 January February March April May June 61.8 r32.4 P58.8 July . . . . August . . September r77.1 r39.6 p33.3 53.8 61.5 65.4 3 3 50.0 57.7 61.9 50.0 77.4 50.0 October . . November December See note on page 74. Graphs of these series are shown on page 37. 'Based on 47 industries through June 1984, on 46 industries through April 1985, on 45 industries through December 1985, on 43 industries through January 1986, and on 42 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. 3 Based on average for July 1, 8, 15, and 22, JULY 1986 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q 970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment, 21 industries Year and quarter a. Actual expenditures (1-Q span) b. Later projections 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade' @ 971. New orders, manufacturing1© c. Early projections (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 973. Net sales, manufacturing and t r a d e 1 © Anticipated Actua Anticipated Actual (1-Q span) (1-Q span) DIFFUSION INDEXES- Continued (4-Q span) Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4=Q span) 1933 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 47. 6 66. 7 90. 5 81. 0 42.9 54.8 76.2 76.2 66 74 78 84 66 77 82 85 62 66 71 74 64 73 80 81 80 76. 2 90 86 84 79 88 91 90 88 80 79 74 74 84 86 88 84 85 84 82 80 88 90 76, 2 71. 4 57.1 78.6 92.9 54.8 .... 57.1 73.8 61.9 57.1 52. 4 76. 2 61, 9 47. 6 47.6 85.7 76.2 42.9 74 74 76 75 82 84 82 80 70 69 70 70 80 81 81 78 76 74 75 74 84 84 84 81 19.0 (NA) 33, 3 61. 9 47.6 81.0 54.8 76 (NA) 78 81 81 72 (NA) 82 83 84 70 .... (NA) 81 84 83 38.1 50.0 81.0 95.2 .... 66 68 74 74 78 84 86 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 88.1 71.4 88.1 61.9 .... .... 64. 3 90 88 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1 H Year and quarter 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade1 (u) 975. Level of inventories manufacturing and trade Actual Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) trade1© Anticipated Actual 978. Selling prices, retail 977. Selling prices, wholesale 976. Selling prices, manufacturing1 @ '© Anticipated (4-Q span) DIFFUSION INDEXES Continued trade' © Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 48 54 58 61 50 56 59 60 54 59 62 68 52 58 62 64 61 60 65 68 65 66 70 69 63 t>2 i)8 1rO 68 64 68 72 68 72 69 72 69 67 70 71 65 63 62 62 62 64 64 62 72 70 70 70 66 70 70 66 74 70 70 68 74 76 76 72 13 69 i>5 t)5 72 72 68 70 70 70 76 75 72 74 74 68 .... 60 58 58 59 60 62 59 58 66 63 60 61 64 66 62 58 65 62 61 61 70 70 64 62 i>4 i>0 c9 tSO 68 66 66 60 66 63 66 62 65 70 67 62 58 62 65 62 1 64 64 62 60 (NA) 58 58 60 59 (NA) 59 60 59 62 .... (NA) 62 62 64 .... .... 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter (NA) i9 (NA) .... NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by<§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 38. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. 76 JULY 1986 Dun § CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change 1985 Diffusion index components November 1986 December January February March Mayr April June'3 961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING ' (Hours) All manufacturing industries 40.7 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.6 Percent rising of 20 components . (52) (95) (22) (22) (72) (45) (45) (55) Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures 39.9 39.4 40.2 39.9 40.4 40.0 40.0 39.7 40.2 39.4 40.3 39.1 40.3 39.4 40,2 39.4 Stone, clay, and glass products... Primary metal industries 41.8 41.9 41.8 42.1 42.7 41.9 41.9 42.1 41.9 41.9 r42.4 r41.3 42.3 41.7 42.4 41.6 Fabricated metal products ., Machinery, except electrical , 41.5 41.6 41.6 41.7 41.5 41.6 41.5 41.6 41.4 41.6 41.2 41.8 41.1 41.8 41.0 41.6 Electric and electronic equipment .. Transportation equipment 40.9 42.7 41.1 43.0 41.0 42.8 40.9 42.7 41.0 42.7 41.1 42.1 41.0 42.0 41,0 42.2 . Instruments and related products ... Miscellaneous manufacturing 41.0 40.2 41.6 40.7 41.1 39.8 41.2 39,3 41.3 39.9 41.3 39.7 40.8 39.4 41.0 39.9 Food and kindred products Tobacco manufacturers 40.0 36.4 40.1 38.1 40.1 37.7 39.8 36.6 39.9 37.5 40.2 36.6 40.3 38.0 40.1 38.9 Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products 40.8 36.8 41.0 36.8 40.8 36.7 40.6 36.3 40.7 36.5 r41.3 36.9 41.1 36.5 40.5 36.7 Paper and allied products, Printing and publishing 43.3 37.9 43.5 38.1 43.6 38.0 43.5 38.0 43.5 38.0 43.0 38.0 43.2 38.0 43.3 38.0 Chemicals and allied products . Petroleum and coal.products .. 41.9 43.2 42.0 43.6 41.9 43.5 41.8 43.7 41.9 43.8 41.9 r43.6 42.0 43.3 41.8 43.8 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products . Leather and leather products 41.3 37.6 42.0 37.9 41.4 37.1 41.0 36.0 41.3 36.3 r41.1 r36.3 41.1 36.6 41.1 37.3 Durable goods industries: Nondurable goods industries: 964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES ' (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries Percent rising of 34 components . 103,796 + 107,531 108,194 107,545 - 104,682 - 103,747 102,624 + 104,772 (50) (35) (56) (44) (43) (62) (32) (59) Primary metals Fabricated metal products... + 10,560 15,280 - 10,059 14,146 + + 10,596 14,326 + - 10,614 14,274 - 9,762 13,141 + 9,625 14,653 - 8,831 14,024 + - 9,191 13,914 Machinery, except electrical . Electrical machinery + + 17,983 16,250 + 16,195 16,297 - 15,603 15,346 + + 18,277 15,704 + 16,081 17,066 + - 16,800 15,467 - 16,441 14,650 + + 17,117 17,725 Transportation equipment Other durable goods industries. - 24,199 19,524 + + 31,031 19,803 + 31,002 21,321 - 28,458 20,218 + - 28,496 20,136 + 26,497 20,705 + + 27,933 20,745 + 26,001 20,824 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. x Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here. JULY 1986 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued 1986 1985 Diffusion index components November December January February Mayr April' March June 966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1977 = 100) AH industrial production Percent rising of 24 components + 2 125.4 + 126.4 126.7 125.6 124.4 125.2 124.7 124.1 (62) (58) (83) (38) (33) (77) (40) (33) (NA) 146.8 (NA) (NA) 120.4 76.9 (NA) 72.2 107.8 142.5 107.2 141.5 Durable manufactures: Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures ,... + 115.6 144.1 116.5 142.1 119.9 143.9 + 118.2 145.4 118.5 145.0 119.0 146.5 Clay, glass, and stone products,. Primary metals + 115.2 83.6 118.2 81.7 120.2 84.9 118.8 80.7 120.0 77.4 121.5 78.1 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery... + 107.9 145.6 108.8 146.0 109.3 + 146.2 109.4 144.6 108.5 143.2 108.6 141.6 Electrical machinery Transportation equipment , 168.9 126.5 171.9 126.8 167.9 128.9 165.5 128.1 165.6 124.3 167.1 127.9 166.4 125.6 163.6 126.8 Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures 140.7 94.5 140.6 96.3 141.1 + 99.0 141.8 98.1 142,5 + 97.2 + 143.0 97.9 + 141.0 98.0 140.5 (NA) Foods Tobacco products .. 131.4 104.5 132.6 103.5 133.2 99.3 133.8 97.9 133.0 93.0 134.0 101.4 135.2 (NA) (NA) (NA) Textile mill products ... Apparel products 108.0 103.9 106.3 105.0 107.4 105.8 110.4 103.6 108.4 + 104.0 + 110.0 104.3 109.4 103.6 (NA) (NA) Paper and products Printing and publishing ... 128.2 159.0 132.3 158.4 133.1 158.9 132.1 155.4 132.0 o 158.1 + 132.0 + 160.0 + 132.2 161.1 (NA) 160.5 Chemicals and products Petroleum products .... 128.0 87.3 128.5 88.7 130.5 92.6 130.9 88.4 131.1 + 87.8 + 132.0 o 91.3 + 132.0 91.6 (NA) 91.9 Rubber and plastics products. Leather and products 150.5 72.1 150.0 69.9 150.5 67.5 150.7 67.0 149.0 65.4 147.3 + 64.6 147.5 63.6 (NA) (NA) Metal mining ... Coal 78.3 125.5 74.3 128.0 75.5 + 130.6 77.2 124.9 78.1 123.5 + (NA) 124.5 (NA) 122.4 (NA) (NA) Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals .. 103.5 119.0 104.4 114.0 103.6 117.1 + 101.4 120.2 98.5 115.2 + 97.1 120.7 95.9 117.0 94.3 (NA) + + Nondurable manufactures: + Mining: NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: preliminary; and "NA", not available. x ( + ) ^ rising, (o) - unchanged, and ( = ) - falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p", Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. 3 78 JULY 1986 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q | Diffusion index components SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directionsof Change-Continued 1986 1985 December November January March February April July1 June May 967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES RAW INDUSTRIALS 2 Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . . - Percent rising of 13 components 234.5 + 235.0 + (58) (23) 236.9 - 233.3 - - (35) (38) (62) 223.1 219.9 221.3 • (54) (62) + 225.0 + 227.5 (65) (50) Dollars Copper scrap ... . Lead scrap . . . (pound) (kilogram).. - (pound) (kilogram).. 0.454 l.OOl + 0.473 1.043 0.499 1.100 0.108 0.238 o 0.108 0.238 0.107 0.236 (U.S. ton).. (metric ton).. - 77.000 84.877 + 79.800 87.964 Tin (pound).. (kilogram).. - 3 5.640 12.434 o 3 Zinc (pound).. (kilogram).. - 0.354 0.780 Steel scrap . - 0.486 1.071 + 0.505 1.113 - 0.488 1.076 - 0.464 1.023 + 0.466 1.027 - 0.431 0.950 _ 0.104 0.229 + 0.105 0.231 + 0.110 0.243 + 0.114 0.251 + 0.126 0.278 + 0.131 0.289 - 82.000 90.389 - 77.250 85.153 - 74.400 82.011 - 71.500 78.814 - 70.000 77.161 o 70.000 77,161 3 5.640 12.434 - 4.000 8.818 - 3.284 7.240 3.115 6.867 - 3.060 6.746 - 3,055 6.735 + 82.500 90.940 5.640 12.434 0 3 5.640 12.434 o 0.354 0.780 0 0.354 0.780 0 0.354 0.780 o 0.354 0.780 - 0.339 0.747 + 0.354 0.780 + 0.395 0.871 + 0,431 0.950 0.246 0.269 - 0.242 0.265 0.248 0.271 - 0.231 0.253 - 0.225 0.246 + 0.231 0.253 + 0.240 0.262 + 0.247 0.270 - 0.242 0.265 0.606 1.336 + 0.628 1.384 + 0.639 1.409 + 0.656 1.446 + 0.669 1.475 0 Burlap (yard)., (meter).. Cotton (pound) (kilogram).. - 0.571 1.259 + 0.573 1.263 Print cloth . (yard). (meter).. + 0.710 0.776 + 0.718 0.785 - 0.698 0.763 - 0.658 0.720 - 0.642 0.702 + 0.648 0.709 + 0.690 0.755 + . 0.702 0.768 + 0.715 0.782 Wool tops .. (pound). (kilogram).. o 3.000 6.614 o 3.000 6.614 n 3.000 6.614 n 3.000 6.614 o 3.000 6.614 o 3.000 6.614 n 3.000 6.614 + 3.200 7.055 o 3.200 7.055 Hides (pound).. (kilogram).. + 0.726 1.601 - 0.707 1.559 - 0.674 1.486 + 0.682 1.504 - 0.678 1.495 + 0.729 1.607 + 0.786 1.733 - 0.785 1,731 - 0.780 1.720 (100 pounds).. (100 kilograms).. o 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 0 50.000 110.230 0 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 0 50.000 110.230 0 50.000 110.230 0 50.000 110.230 Rubber . (pound) (kilogram).. - 0.422 0.930 - 0.404 0.891 0.406 0.895 + 0.425 0.937 - 0.423 0.933 - 0.392 0.864 + 0.401 0.884 + 0.408 0.899 + 0.434 0.957 Tallow (pound).. (kilogram).. - 0.134 0.295 + 0.136 0.300 0.139 0.306 - 0.128 0.282 - 0.106 0.234 + 0.108 0.238 - 0.100 0.220 0.087 0.192 + 0.095 0.209 • Rosin + + + + 0.591 1.303 + NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. preliminary; and "NA", not available. 0.667 1.470 The "r" indicates revised; "p", 1 The index is the average for July 1-25; component prices are averages for July 1, 8, 15, and 22. Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 Official price for October 23, 1985. 2 JULY 1986 79 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT H H 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars 200. Gross national product in current dollars Year and quarter b. Difference a. Total 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dot.) Revised 1 Revised 1 GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME b. Difference a. Total c. Percent change at annual rate (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revj ^d 1 Revised 1 c. Percent change at annual rate Revised 1 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars 213. Final sales In 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revised 1 3,265.8 3,367.4 3,443.9 3,545.8 53.3 101.6 76.5 101.9 6,8 13.0 9.4 12.4 3,186.6 3,258.3 3,306.4 3,365.1 27.3 71.7 48.1 58.7 3,5 9.3 6.0 7.3 13.619 13,894 14,063 14,277 3,228.9 3,267.6 3,307.4 3,338.1 3,670.9 3,743.8 3.799.7 3,845.6 125.1 72.9 55.9 45.9 14.9 8,2 6.1 4.9 3,444.7 3,487.1 3.507.4 3,520.4 79.6 42.4 20.3 13.0 9.8 5.0 2.3 1.5 14,582 14,730 14,778 14,795 3,359.6 3,430.0 3,446.8 3,486.4 .... 3,909.3 3,965.0 4,030.5 4,087.7 63.7 55.7 65.5 57.2 6.8 5.8 6.8 5.8 3,547.0 3,567.6 3,603.8 3,622,3 26.6 20,6 36.2 18.5 3.1 2.3 4.1 2.1 14,874 14,928 15,041 15,080 3,523.9 3,550.2 3,603.1 3,627.5 .... 4,149.2 p4,182.3 61.5 P33.1 6.2 P3.2 3,655.9 p3,665.7 33.6 p9.8 3.8 pl.l 15,188 pl5,197 3,616.1 p3,646.1 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... Q j 230. Total in current dollars Disposable personal income Year and quarter 224. Current dollars 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter ( 3 GNP AND PERSONAL fNCOME—Continued 225. Constant (1982) dollars PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 231. Total in 1982 dollars 232. Durable goods in current dollars 2;J3. Durable goods in 1982 dollars 227. Per capita in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 2,345.7 2,395.4 2,443.2 2,527.9 2,288.4 2,311.1 2,335.4 2,392.7 9,780 9,855 9,933 10,151 2,146.6 2,213.0 2,262.8 2,315,8 2,094.2 2,135.1 2,163.0 2,191.9 266.7 284.5 295.2 310,0 263.3 280.0 288.5 300.5 2,612.7 2,646.3 2,693.8 2,729.6 2,446.9 2,460.3 2,481.9 2,493.1 10,358 10,392 10,457 10,477 2,363.8 2,416.1 2,445.6 2,487.2 2,213.8 2.246.3 2,253.3 2.271.7 321.2 331.3 331.8 340,4 311.1 319.0 318.8 326.8 .... 2,755.4 2,842.3 2,832.0 2,882.2 2.495.7 2,550.8 ' 2,524.7 2,540.7 10,466 10,674 10,537 10,577 2,530.9 2,576.0 2.627.1 2,667.9 2,292.3 2,311.9 2,342.0 2,351.7 347.7 354.0 373.3 362.0 332.3 338.8 357.4 347.0 .... 2,935.1 p2,979.2 10,723 plO.889 2,697.9 p2,730.1 2,372.7 p2,407.0 360.8 P374.7 345.4 P357.5 .... .... 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 2,581.2 P2.626.6 .... NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on paces 40 and 41. x See "New F e a t u r e s and Changes f o r T h i s I s s u e , " page i i i . JULY 1986 BCD OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued B 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars Vpar leal ,BJ ana quarter (Ann. rate, bil. do!.) Revised 1 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued 238. Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 1983 786.3 237. Services in current dollars f j 239. Services in 1982 dollars 240. Total in current dollars GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 241. Total in 1982 dollars 242. Fixed investment in current dollars 243. Fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 791.0 810.9 827.0 837.9 795.7 806.2 812.7 1,088.9 1,117.6 1,140.6 1,167.9 1,044.6 1,059.4 1,068.3 1,078,6 428.3 481.3 519.7 579.8 427.1 486.9 524.8 577.2 471.0 492.5 525.2 548.8 469.4 496.2 525,8 550.3 855.7 870.3 873.9 880.3 819.7 832.8 831.7 830.5 1,186.9 1,214.5 1,239.9 1,266.5 1,083.0 1,094.6 1,102.8 1,114.4 659.5 657.5 670.3 661.1 649.3 649.7 658.9 649.9 564.0 597.6 605.8 624.4 564.1 592.7 598.3 615.9 .... 888.2 902.3 907.4 922.6 834.3 841.3 843.8 . 847.2 1,294.9 1,319.7 1,346.4 1,383.2 1,125.8 1,131.8 1,140.8 1,157.5 650.6 667.1 657.4 669.5 638.2 655.6 643.8 653.2 625.2 648.0 654.3 672.6 615.0 638.1 643.1 658.4 First quarter Second quarter .... 929.7 P926.0 1,407.4 pi,429.4 1,166.6 pi,173.9 708.3 P691.4 684.0 P667.6 664.4 P671.9 644.1 P648.0 i niru quarter Fourth quarter .... First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1986 • • Wm tear ano quarter 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 860.6 P875.5 D GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVEST—Con. 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 260. Total in current dollars 261. Total in 1982 dollars GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 262. Federal Government in current dollars 263. Federal Government in 1982 dollars 266. State and local government in current dollars 267. State and local government in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 668.1 675.2 680.7 676.1 649.2 650.9 653.6 642.2 285.5 287.7 31.0 -42.3 -9.3 -1.0 27.0 284.9 276.1 278.2 278.5 277.6 266.0 382.7 387.5 395.8 400.0 371.0 372.4 376.0 376.2 .... 95.5 59.9 64.4 36.7 85.1 57.0 60.6 33.9 693.2 733.3 743.8 763.4 650.2 678.2 681.0 691.5 283.4 315.2 317.2 329.1 271.2 296.3 295.6 303.8 409.8 418.1 426.6 434.3 379.0 381.8 385.4 387.7 .... 25.4 19.1 777.3 799.0 829.7 855.6 695.3 708.3 731.8 749.4 333.7 340.9 360.9 380.9 305.8 311.4 329.9 347.2 443.5 458.1 468.8 474.7 389.5 396.9 401.9 402.2 836.7 P857.2 725.2 P737.5 355.7 P364.8 320.4 P325.1 480.9 P492.4 404.8 P412.4 .... -42.6 -11.2 -5.5 .... 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... -3.1 23.2 17.4 0.7 -5.2 .... 43.8 p!9.5 39.9 P19.6 3.1 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 4 1 , 4 2 , and 4 3 . x See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii. JULY 1986 81 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued ^ J 280. Compensation of employees 257. Constant (1982) dollars 253. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. do!.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 22.7 -2.1 -19.3 -25.8 16.1 -14.6 -35.0 -46.2 343.6 344.1 357.7 364.7 342.5 341.7 352.8 355.5 320.9 346.2 376.9 390.5 326.4 356.3 387.8 401.6 2,599.1 2,685.5 2,741.8 2,851.5 1,958.8 1,995.0 2,036.3 2,092.7 -45.6 -63.2 -60.0 -66.1 -68.6 -87,2 -85.7 -92.7 373.4 382.1 389,2 386.2 361.3 367.0 375.5 375.0 419.0 445.3 449.1 452.2 429.9 454.2 461.2 467.7 2,963.2 3,010.3 3,052.3 3,102.0 2,153.7 2,195.4 2,234.7 2,275.0 .... -49,4 -77.1 -83.7 -105.3 -78.8 -108.1 -113.8 -132.0 378.4 370.0 362.3 368.2 369.4 361.2 355.8 362.9 427.9 447.1 446.0 473.6 448.2 469.3 469.6 494.8 3,157.0 3,201.4 3,243.4 3,287.3 2,316,3 2,352.1 2,380.9 2,423.6 .... -93.7 p-96.4 -125.9 p-146.3 374.8 P375.6 369.2 p371.9 468.5 P472.0 495.1 P518.3 3,340.7 (NA) 2,461,5 p2,478.8 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 256. Constant (1982) dollars 252. Current dollars 255. Constant (1982) dollars 250. Current dollars NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS 220. National income in current dollars Imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services Net exports of goods and services Year and quarter P | •til FOREIGN TRADE .... .... 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... ^ 9 282. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj1 Year and quarter 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Efl SAVNIG NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS—Continued 284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj1 286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj1 288. Net interest 290. Gross saving 295. Business saving 292. Personal saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 183.9 192.3 179.5 207.8 13.8 15.4 11.2 12,4 170.6 207.0 228.9 248.5 272.1 275.8 285.9 290.2 424.2 448.2 462.3 519.9 433.9 453.0 472.0 487.3 139.5 121.1 116.4 145.4 242.5 229.6 234.6 240.7 12.1 8.4 7.1 5.6 262.5 271.7 259.8 265.0 292.5 305.2 316.1 315.7 580.7 568.7 578.2 565.5 489.0 505,0 510.0 520.3 179.2 157,6 172.9 165.0 .... 250,7 255.5 249.3 262.1 6.8 8.1 7.3 8.3 . 266.4 274.3 296.3 285,6 316.8 311.4 309.7 307.6 573.2 566.8 541.7 524.1 525.6 538.9 560.1 553.5 144.1 183.6 119.6 125.8 .... 265.3 p288.0 12.8 P15.1 296.4 (NA) 304.9 P299.1 583.2 (NA) 569.2 (NA) 145.6 P155.7 .... .... 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46. l IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 82 JULY 1986 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Q Year and quarter SAVING—Continued 298. Government surplus or deficit 293. Personal saving rate Revised First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . (Percent) 2 SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME Percent of gross national product 235. Personal consumption expenditures : (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1983 Q | 248. Nonresidentiat fixed investment l (Percent) Revised 2 Revised Revised 247. Change in business inventories (Percent) (Percent) 2 249. Residential fixed investment 2 Revised (Percent) (Percent) 2 Revised 251. Net exports of goods and services 2 Revised 2 -149.2 -126.0 -126.2 -112.9 5.9 5.1 4.8 5.8 65.7 65.7 65,7 65,3 10.4 ' 10.2 10.4 10.8 4.0 4.4 4.9 4.7 -1.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.9 0.7 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -87.5 -93.9 -104.8 -119.9 6.9 6.0 6.4 6.0 64.4 64.5 64.4 64.7 10.6 11.0 11.1 11.5 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.7 2.6 1.6 1.7 1.0 -1.2 -1.7 -1.6 -1.7 -96.6 -155.6 -138.0 -155.1 5.2 6.5 4.2 4.4 64.7 . 65.0 65.2 65.3 11.3 11.6 11.4 11.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -1.3 -1.9 -2.1 -2.6 -131.6 (NA) 5.0 P5.2 . 65.0 P65.3 11.1 plO.9 4.9 p5.1 1.1 p0.5 -2.3 p-2.3 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . Fourth quarter . . . . Q Year and quarter SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued Percent of national income Percent of GNP—Continued 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services Revised First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 2 8.7 283. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdjl 64. Compensation of employees (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 1983 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services C2) Revised 2 285. Rental income of persons with CCAdj1 (Percent) (Percent) Revised 2 Revised 2 287. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj1 (Percent) Revised 2 289. Net interest (Percent) Revised 2 8.5 8.3 7,8 11.7 11.5 11.5 11.3 75.4 74.3 74.3 73.4 7.1 7.2 6.5 7.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 6.6 7.7 8.3 8.7 10.5 10.3 10.4 10.2 7.7 8.4 8.3 8.6 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.3 72.7 72.9 73.2 73.3 8.2 7.6 7.7 7.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 8.9 9.0 8.5 8.5 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.2 8.5 8.6 9,0 9.3 11.3 rll.6 11.6 11.6 73.4 73.5 73.4 73.7 7.9 8.0 7.7 8.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 8.4 8.6 9.1 8.7 10.0 9.7 9,5 9.4 7.9 (NA) 0.4 (NA) 8.9 (NA) 9.1 (NA) 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . . . . . Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . . 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 8.6 P 8.7 11.6 pll.8 l 73.7 (NA) See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47. X IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. JULY 1986 83 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY ^ g 310. Index Consumer price index for all urban consumers Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product Implicit price deflator for gross national product Year and month PRICE MOVEMENTS 310c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 311. Index 311c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 (1982 = 100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1982 = 100) (Ann. rate, percent) Revised2 Revised2 Revised 2 Revised2 320. Index (u) (1967 = 100) 320c. Change over 1-month spans' (Percent) Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food 320c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 322. Index (1967 = 100) 322c. Change over 1-month spans' (Percent) 322c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1984 4.6 January February March 106'.6 April May June 107^4 July August September 108.3 October November December 109*2 305.2 306.6 307.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 4.6 4.3 4.2 299.7 300.9 301.2 0.1 5.1 4.4 4.1 3.4 308.8 309.7 310.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 3.6 3.7 3.9 301.5 300.9 301.9 0.1 -0.2 0.3 2.1 2.5 2.5 3,4 311.7 313.0 314.5 0.3 3.7 3.8 3.8 302.8 304.7 304.9 0.3 2.9 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.1 3.6 3.5 3.5 315.3 315.3 315.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 3.5 3.3 3.5 305.8 306.2 307.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 3.3 2.3 2.4 3.4 316.1 317.4 318.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 307.7 308.2 308.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.9 1.4 1.2 3.4 320.1 321.3 X?? ^ 0.3 0.2 n ? 3.6 3.4 2 8 308.7 308.4 309 1 0.0 -0.1 0 Z 1.0 0.9 1 4 2.5 322.8 323.5 0.2 0.2 2.9 3.6 309.2 309.6 n 0 ^ Q iifi 7 0.0 0.1 n A 1.6 3.1 A n 0.4 0.6 nd 4.1 2.9 1 6 311.1 313.2 315 ? 0.1 0.7 0 6 4.4 2.7 2 Z 315.9 313.8 314.1 0.2 -0.7 0.1 2.5 2.1 1.0 315.0 316.4 316 7 0.3 0.4 0 1 4,0 106.3 3.0 107^2 3.4 108.1 3.4 109! i 1.3 0.4 1985 January February March 110.2 April May June' ni'.i July August September ui'.s October November December 112*8 3.7 110*6 3.3 Il6l9 2.5 111.6 3.6 3.6 112.6 325.5 326.6 007 A 1986 January February March 2.5 .... April May June 113.5 piii'.i 2.1 328.4 327.5 326.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 pi.4 325.3 326.3 327 9 -0.3 0.2 05 113#.2 P2.1 plU.'s 0.3 -0.4 -0.2 July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49. x Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. *See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 84 JULY 1986 MX* OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued Year and month 330. Index © (1967=100) 330c. Change . over 1-month spans 1 @ (Percent) Producer price index, crude materials for further processing Producer price index, industrial commodities Producer price index, alt commodities 330c. Change over 6-month spans' © (Ann. rate, percent) 335. Index © (1967-100) 335c. Change over 1-month spans1 @ (Percent) 335c. Change over 6-month spans' © (Ann. rate, percent) 331. Index (1967-100) 331c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) 331c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1984 January February March 308.0 308.9 311.0 April May June 0.6 0.3 0.7 3.5 4.0 3.4 319.1 320.6 321.9 0.2 0.5 0.4 2.6 3.1 3.4 335.4 329.5 337.1 1.2 -1.8 2.3 3.6 3.7 -0.3 311, 311, 311.3 -0.1 2.5 1.2 -1.1 322.6 323.2 323.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.0 1.7 0.2 335.5 333.9 330.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -1.7 0.0 -5.3 July August September . . . 311.9 310.7 309.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -1.2 -0.8 -1.0 323.9 323.3 322.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.4 -0.5 332.5 329.5 328.1 0.5 -0.9 -0.4 -6.6 -44 -3.2 October .November . . . December . . . 309.4 310.3 309.8 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 323.4 323.8 323.0 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 0.2 324.3 326.9 325.4 -1.2 0.8 -0.5 -6.9 -8.5 -10.2 January February March 309.5 309.1 308.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 322.9 322.2 322.5 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.1 320.8 315.2 311.0 -1.4 -1.7 -1.3 -10.2 -12.6 -12.8 April May June 309.3 309.8 309.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -1.2 -2.0 323.8 325.3 324.8 0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.9 0.9 -0.1 307.3 305.6 303.8 -1.2 -0.6 -0.6 -10.8 -11.8 -11.2 July August September . . . 309.0 307.3 305.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -0.2 0.6 324.4 323.7 322.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 -0.4 0.2 296. 293. 303.0 -0.3 -2.3 -1.0 -3.3 1.6 2.1 October 307.9 309.5 310.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 -0.1 r-1.9 -3.4 324.2 324.7 325.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.4 r-2.9 -5.1 302.2 308.0 307.0 3.1 1.9 -0.3 r-6.3 -8.8 308.9 r304.4 300.3 -0.4 r-1.5 r-1.3 -6.4 -6.5 -7.2 323.8 r318.9 314.0 -0.4 r-1.5 r-1.5 -7.8 -7.8 -8.1 302.9 r286.6 279.9 -1.3 r-5.4 r-2.3 -20.4 -19.8 -20.9 297.9 299.2 298.9 -0.8 0.4 -0.1 311.3 311.7 311.6 -0.9 0.1 0.0 1985 November . . . December . . . -0.1 1986 January February March April May June 269 275 273.0 -3.6 2.3 -1.1 July August September . . . October November . . , December . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. Changes are centered within the spans: IICII JULY 1986 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. 85 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components Year and month 332. Index (1967-100) 332c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) Producer price index, finished consumer goods Producer price index, capital equipment 332c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 333. Index (1967 = 100) 333c. Change over 1-month (Percent) 333c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 334. Index (1967 = 100) 334c. Change over 1-month spans• 334c. Change over 6 month spans: (Percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1984 January February March 317.1 317.9 319.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 2.7 3.2 3.2 291.0 291, 292. April May June 320.2 320.9 321.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.4 1.6 0.2 294, 293. 293.8 July August September . . . 320.9 320.4 320.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 294.5 295.0 295.8 October November . . . December . . . 320.4 320.7 320.4 -0.1 -0,3 -0.9 -0.9 January February March 320.4 319.0 318.6 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 April May June 319.3 320.0 318.5 July August September . . . October November . . . December . . . 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.7 2.9 2.5 288.6 289.3 290.7 0.2 0.5 3.0 3.7 2,9 2.4 2.3 2.4 290.8 290.7 290.5 0.0 0,0 -0.1 1.7 0.7 -0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.6 1,2 291,0 290.3 290.0 0.2 -0.2 -0,1 -0.5 0.1 0,4 295.0 295.9 295.6 -0.1 1.6 2.5 2.4 290.0 290.8 291.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.4 -1.2 296.8 298.6 299.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 3.1 2.8 3.3 290,5 290.0 289.9 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.5 -0.9 299.6 300.0 300.4 0.1 2.6 1.8 0.3 291.9 292, 291, 0.7 0.2 -0.3 1.4 0.8 -0.2 317.8 317.4 317.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -1.1 -0.9 0.9 300. 301. 299, 0.1 0.2 -0.5 2.1 2.3 2.3 292. 291. 289. 0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 1,3 3.5 317.5 318.6 319.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 -2.3 -4,5 302.7 303.4 303.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 1.7 rl.6 3.1 292 294.5 296.7 0.9 0.8 0,7 1.1 r-2.3 -3.8 January February March 318.4 313.8 310.0 -0.5 -1.4 -1.2 -6.5 -7.6 -8.3 303.3 r303.7 304.3 -0.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 294.1 r287.8 284.1 -0.9 r-2.1 r-1.3 -7.1 -7.1 -8.6 April May June 307.0 306.3 306.4 -1.0 -0.2 0.0 305.3 305.5 305.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 281.5 283.8 283.6 -0.9 0.8 -0.1 1985 1986 rO*.2 July August September . . . October November . . . December . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. JULY 1986 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued •Mil WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1 Year and month Real earnings Current-dollar earnings 340. Index (1977=100) 340c. Change over 1-month spansl (Percent) Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector 340c. Change over 6-month spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 341. Index (1977-100) 341c. Change over 1-month spans2 (Percent) Current-dollar compensation 341c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 345. Index (1977-100) Revised3 345c. Change over 1-quarter spans2 345c. Change over 4-quarter spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) Revised3 Revised3 1984 January February March 158.4 158.3 158 9 0.4 0.0 0 3 3.0 2.7 2 9 94.7 94.6 94 9 -0.1 -0.1 0 3 0.9 0.4 05 165*1 April May June 159.6 159.5 160 0 0.5 -0.1 0 4 2.8 2.8 3 2 95.3 94.9 qc n 0.4 -0.5 n ? 0.5 -1.4 -? n 166*4 July August September 160.6 160.5 161 4 0.3 0.0 0 5 2.2 3.1 3 4 94.9 94.0 94 0 -0.1 -1.0 0 0 -2.8 -1.4 -1 2 168 .'l October November December 161.4 162.0 162 7 0.0 0.4 0 5 2.7 3.9 3 1 93.9 94.2 94 4 -0.1 0.3 0 2 -1.4 1.1 0 5 169*8 January February March 162.7 163.6 163.8 0.0 0.5 0.2 3.5 3.1 3.1 94.3 94.5 94.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 171.5 April May June 164.2 164.4 165.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 2.7 2.3 3.1 94.0 94.1 94.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.7 -0.9 0.4 173.3 July August September 165.0 165.5 166.4 -0.2 0.3 0.5 2.4 2.9 3.1 93.9 94.1 94.4 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 174*7 October November December 166.2 166.8 167.7 -0.1 0.4 0.6 2.9 3.3 2.6 94.0 93.9 94.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -1.0 0.7 1.5 176*2 167.3 168.2 168.5 -0.3 0.5 0.2 2.7 r2.2 p2.0 93.5 94.4 95.1 -0.6 1.0 0.8 3.0 3.2 p2.8 177.*6 168.4 rl68.6 P169.4 -0.1 0.2 p0.4 95.4 95.4 p95.3 0.3 0.0 p-0.1 4.9 4*3 3.2 4.'l 4.3. 3.9 4.1 4*2 1985 3.9 3.9 4.4 3.8 3.2 3.6 3.6 p3*6 1986 January February March April May June 3.1 p2.1 pl78*5 July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 2 JULY 1986 87 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued Negotiated wage and benefit decisions Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector—Continued Year and month 348. Average first-year changes @ Real compensation 346. Index (1977 = 100) 1984 Revised 2 January February March 97.6 April May June 97.5 July August . ., September , 97.6 October.., November , December 97.7 346c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 346c. Change over 4-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 2 Revised (Ann. rate, percent) 349. Average changes over life of contract © (Ann. rate, percent) Revised2 3.5 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 2 2 Revised 3.1 3.7 2.4 103.9 1.6 104,6 0.8 104.4 0.8 104.3 1.7 104.4 0.9 104.9 1.5 105.4 pi.2 104.5 -0.3 105.5 -0.1 2.0 0.5 Revised2 Revised 2.6 105.6 2.7 (1977-100) 2 4.4 3.2 0.3 0.4 (1977 = 100) 104.9 0.1 0.5 370c. Change over 4-quarter spans1 4.7 0.1 -0.4 370c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 370. Index Revised 5.1 -0.2 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector Output per hour, all persons, business sector 105.5 1985 January . February March . . 97.9 April . May . June , 98.0 July . . . . August . . September 98.1 October November . . . December , . . 98.0 3.6 0.6 105.7 3.5 0.3 106.4 2.0 3.4 3.0 0.5 107.3 2.0 -0.7 2.7 3.4 0.2 0.6 0.9 2.7 0.5 -3.2 1.4 pi.3 106.4 1986 January . February March . . April May June 1.6 rp0.4 rpl.3 98.4 P3.9 P99.3 3.3 107.3 pO.7 pi.6 105.6 pi.6 P107.7 P106.1 July . . . . August . . September October November . . . December . , . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and SO. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. JULY 1986 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Q CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers Civilian labor force Year and month 441. Total 442. Civilian employment Number unemployed 37. Persons unemployed 444. Males 20 years and over (Thous.) (Thous.) 445. Females 20 years and over 446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) 448. Number employed part time for economic reasons Civilian labor force participation rates 451. Males 20 years and over 452. Females 20 years and over 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Percent) (Percent) (Thous.) (Thous.) January February March 112,191 112,683 112,734 103,209 103,846 103,959 8,982 8,837 8,775 4,242 4,133 4.059 3,189 3,146 3,140 1,551 1,558 1,576 7,493 7,300 7,312 5,714 5,713 5,479 78.3 78.3 78.3 53.0 53.3 53.4 53.0 53.7 53.5 April May June 113,083 113,722 113,818 104.318 105,175 105,580 8,765 8,547 8,238 4,058 3,943 3,783 3,149 3,100 2,976 1,558 1,504 1,479 7,327 7,067 6,597 5,549 5,328 5,571 78.2 78.3 78.5 53.6 54.1 53.8 54.0 54.0 54.8 July August September 113,922 113,718 113,795 105,466 105,222 105,415 8,456 8,496 8,380 3,877 3.864 3,830 3,131 3,181 3,016 1,448 1,451 1,534 6,980 6,970 6,898 5,481 5,351 5,443 78.4 78.3 78.3 54.0 53.9 53.6 54.4 53.2 54.4 October November December 114,036 114,165 114,504 105,657 105,971 106.248 8,379 8,194 8,256 3,739 3,727 3,775 3,186 3,070 3,002 1,454 1,397 1,479 6,968 6,778 6,837 5,498 5,390 5,611 78.2 78.2 78.3 53.9 54.0 54.0 54.0 53.9 54.4 January February March 114,754 114,982 115,335 106,315 106,587 106,951 8,439 8,395 8,384 3,766 3,763 3,743 3,160 3,140 3,168 1,513 1,492 1,473 6,920 6,923 6,831 5,392 5,098 5,421 78.2 78.1 78.2 54.4 54.4 54.6 54.8 55.4 55.5 April May June 115,256 115,339 115,024 106,872 106,939 106,601 8,384 8,400 8,423 3,775 3,696 3,862 3,178 3,199 3,152 1,431 1.505 1,409 6,845 6,816 6,770 5,402 5,550 5,278 78.1 78.2 78.1 54.6 54.5 54.6 54.9 55.3 52.4 115,272 115,343 115,790 106,871 107,210 107,519 8,401 8,133 8,271 3,755 3.633 3,656 3,120 3,143 3,195 1,526 1,357 1,420 6,901 6,683 6,766 5,328 5,413 5,299 77.9 78.0 78.1 54.5 54.6 54.8 54.9 53.5 54.1 116,114 116,130 116,229 107,813 107,969 108,206 8,301 8,161 8,023 3,677 3,656 3,566 3,054 3,057 2,988 1,570 1,448 1,469 6,726 6,713 6,583 5,241 5,295 5,294 78.1 78.1 78.0 54.9 54.9 55.0 54.8 54.3 54.0 January February March 116,786 117,088 117,207 108,955 108,561 108,788 7,831 8,527 8,419 3,507 3,799 3,809 2,915 3,211 3,155 1,409 1,517 1,455 6,435 6,922 6,918 5,275 5,158 5,301 78.4 78.3 78.3 55.0 55.0 55.0 53.1 55.2 55.1 April May June 117,234 117,664 118,116 108,892 109,110 109,673 8,342 8,554 8,443 3,663 3,897 3,827 3,097 3,125 3,104 1.582 1,532 1,512 6.783 7,037 6,756 5,621 5,673 5,320 78.0 78.1 . 78.2 55.1 55.4 55.7 55.7 55.6 54.7 (Thous.) (Percent) 1984 1985 .. July August September .... ' October November December 1986 July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 51. JULY 1986 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES DEFENSE INDICATORS RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES State and local governmentl Federal Government1 Year and month Advance measures of defense activity 500. Surplus or deficit 501. Receipts 502. Expenditures 510. Surplus or deficit 511. Receipts 512. Expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised2 Revised2 Revised Revised Revised Revised2 January . February March . . -154.0 711.2 865.2 66.5 526.5 460.0 21,145 22,667 23,445 15,089 14,273 13,779 142,169 145,648 150,842 6,503 6,884 11,713 April . May . June . -163.9 721.7 885.6 70.0 538.8 468.7 19,185 20,342 19,781 11,398 9,459 11,644 149,369 149,452 151,538 5,139 6,648 6,834 July August September . . , -171.9 729.2 901.1 67.2 542.9 475.8 20,988 23,098 22,191 10,101 12,647 11,441 152,828 156,271 156,950 7,600 8,090 7,301 October November . . . December . . . -190.1 743.9 934.0 70.2 555.3 485.0 20,821 28,892 26,686 12,901 25,552 7,017 159,226 168,321 172,010 5,167 10,091 7,448 January , , February . March . , . -162.2 793.3 955.4 65.6 561.3 495.6 22,492 20,377 20,346 12,449 12,432 10,360 174,180 173,704 174,338 11,061 4,708 6,240 April . May . June . -214.8 755.8 970.6 59.2 571.9 512.6 22,655 25,140 29,513 9,658 14,147 11,627 174,867 178,000 179,337 6,130 8,773 11,238 July . . . . August . . September -197.5 792.6 990.1 59.5 584.2 524.7 31,641 34,470 30,753 12,163 17,579 11,702 182,074 187,278 186,401 9,594 10,270 8,106 October November . . . December . . . -217.6 805.8 1,023.4 62.5 592.7 530.2 28,629 25,809 30,768 10,584 10,086 14,088 185,059 182,400 183,504 6,179 6,810 7,152 -201.6 800.0 1,001.5 70.0 608.4 538.5 26,792 29,492 32,124 13,424 9,318 14,368 185,822 188,008 190,756 10,350 7,200 10,447 (NA) (NA) pi,039.6 (NA) (NA) P551.2 28,162 P29.221 (NA) 12,855 P8.849 (NA) 188,903 pl89>004 6,500 r8,430 p9,589 1984 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (Mil. dol.) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) 1985 1986 January February March April May June (NA) Juiy August September , . . October . . November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53. l Based on national income and product accounts. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page 90 JULY 1986 ICO OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued 1 J DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continuesi National defense purchases Intermediate and final measures of defense activity Year and month 557. index of industrial production, defense and space equipment (1977=100) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military (Mil. dol.) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (Mil. dol.) 570. Employment, defense products industries (Thous.) Defense Department personnel 577. Military on active duty (u) (Thous.) 578. Civilian, direct hire employment (Thous.) 1984 564. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense 565. National defense purchases as a percent of 6NP (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent) Revised1 Revised1 148.8 151.3 151.9 17,861 18,190 18,746 113,575 114,624 120,647 18,448 17,801 17,794 5,682 5,835 5,690 1,391 1,398 1,408 2,130 2,135 2,140 1,049 1,049 1,051 227.'1 6*2 155.6 156.0 157.2 19,017 19,514 20,035 119,870 120,758 121,672 18,525 18,609 18,953 5,916 5,760 5,920 1,414 1,424 1,435 2,138 2,141 2,143 1,052 1,056 1,056 233.7 6.2 July August September 158.5 160.7 163.4 20,734 21,315 22,141 123,219 125,276 126,496 18,405 19,181 19,469 6,053 6,033 "6,081 1,444 1,452 1,461 2,142 2,144 2,138 1,060 1,062 1,057 234 ".5 6*.2 October November December 163.5 163.3 165.3 22,551 22,581 22,517 125,340 129,092 129,775 18,687 20,152 19,899 6,323 6,339 6,765 1,470 1,474 1,485 2,138 2,141 2,138 1,068 1,069 1,069 244.9 6*4 January February March 165.3 167.3 134,455 132,467 131,990 18,762 20,058 20,465 6,380 6,695 6,718 1,496 1,506 1,514 2,146 2,147 2,148 1,073 1,074 1,076 248.9 6*4 169.0 23,091 23,405 23,489 April . May . June 170.1 171.2 173.4 24,006 23,962 24,721 131,769 133,958 137,975 19,597 20,603 20,554 6,352 6,584 7,221 1,521 1,530 1,541 2,148 2,149 2,151 1,081 1,084 1,084 255*1 6*4 July . August September 173.9 175.5 177.5 25,317 25,923 26,476 140,742 143,848 144,828 21,498 22,489 21,987 6,827 7,164 7,126 1,549 1,569 1,565 2,156 2,157 2,151 1,091 1,094 1,099 265.5 6*6 October November December 178.7 180.7 180.7 26,587 26,598 26,270 143,336 142,288 141,497 20,908 21,847 22,440 7,671 7,858 7,943 1,572 1,581 1,580 2,151 • 2,153 2,150 1,099 1,098 1,100 268.'6 6.*6 179.3 176.7 178.5 26,762 26,254 27,080 144,814 144,433 147,801 20,152 21,586 23,059 7,033 7,581 7,079 1,589 1,590 1,589 2,157 2,160 2,160 1,103 1,087 1,084 266.4 6.4 rl78.8 rl79.5 p!79.7 27,565 27,754 (NA) 146,968 rl47,912 pl49,669 22,101 r22,921 p21,929 7,333 r7,486 p7,832 r1,594 pi,598 (NA) 2,150 2,150 p2,143 1,081 1,072 (NA) p277*.5 p6*.6 January February March April May . June . . . . . . . . 1985 1986 January February March April May June ... July . August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. JULY 1986 91 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS MERCHANDISE TRADE 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 612. General imports Year and month (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dot.) 614, Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts 1984 January February March 17,889 17,208 17,906 3,457 3,198 3,336 4,009 3,848 3,764 26,204 26,420 26,948 4,515 4,660 5,393 3,684 3,751 3,680 April May June 17,520 17,978 17,705 3,030 3,245 2,715 3,811 3,976 3,746 28,074 26,012 25,279 6,000 5,113 4,694 3,838 3,635 3,683 July August September . . . 19,154 18,123 18,210 3,236 3,022 3,153 3,790 3,878 3,640 31,334 26,866 28,409 4,674 4,021 4,261 3,947 3,773 4,302 October November . . . December . , . 18,411 18,395 19,142 2,799 3,242 3,314 4,007 3,905 4,128 26,783 27,331 25,933 4,007 4,637 4,298 3,600 3,817 3,732 January February March 19,401 17,853 18,446 2,945 2,842 2,436 4,247 3,970 4,160 28,297 27,985 28,129 4,005 3,833 3,411 4,033 4,999 4,243 April May June 17,779 17,414 17,438 2,624 2,215 2,218 3,970 4,073 3,952 28,295 28,685 29,425 4,936 5,237 4,842 4,350 4,073 4,932 July August September . . . 17,412 17,423 17,732 2,184 2,347 2,080 3,615 3,897 3,777 26,630 26,083 31,764 3,342 3,252 4,041 4,161 4,489 5,555 October November . .. December .. . 17,368 17,976 17,024 2,351 2,446 2,426 3,694 3,918 3,730 27,594 30,285 32,888 3,811 4,367 5,079 4,198 5,461 5,758 January February March '17,006 '17,734 3,854 4,294 3,740 '32,005 28.895 '31,972 4,978 4,254 3,578 5,044 5,378 April May June 1 2,320 2,283 2,135 2,043 1,960 l 28,762 '30,272 2,084 (NA) 2,718 5,044 5,054 (NA) (NA) 1985 1986 17,964 l 17,430 (NA) (NA) 3,981 3,644 (NA) l 5,018 July August September .. . October November , .. December . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pate 56. l Not seasonally, adjusted. See item 7 of "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iv of the March 1986 issue. 92 JULY 1986 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Q | GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS) Merchandise, adjusted' Goods and services Year and month 668. Exports 667. Balance (Mil. dol.) 2 January February March (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 2 2 t) C) 1984 669. Imports 622. Balance (Mil. dol.) 618. Exports (Mil. dol.) 620. Imports (Mil. dol.) o 2 C) ( ) Income on investment 651. U.S. investment abroad (Mil. dol.) 652. Foreign investment in the United States (Mil. dol.) t2) 2 t ) . . -17,872 89,907 107,779 -25,801 53,614 79 415 22 860 1 C AAC April May June -25,394 89,053 114,447 -29,094 54,590 83,684 21,104 17,208 July August September -25,166 90,63i 115,797 -28,453 55,691 84,144 21,396 17,991 October November December -25,874 90,522 116,396 -29,174 56,005 85,179 20,861 1 C Q0"3 16,823 1985 January February March -22,832 88,040 110,872 -25,045 55,324 80,369 18,726 16,507 April May June -25,959 89,350 115,309 -30,367 53,875 84,242 22,253 16,804 July August September -24,454 90,234 114,688 -31,675 52,498 84,173 24,502 16,240 October November December -29,451 90,873 120,324 -37,352 52,727 90,079 24,509 15,254 p-30,637 p91,605 pl22,242 p-36,585 p53,548 p90,133 p24,241 pl7,421 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1986 January February March .... . .. April May June July August September October November December . ... See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. 1 Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfer:s under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. JULY 1986 93 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Q H 47. United States, index of industrial production Year and month (1977 = 100) 721.0ECD1 European countries, index of industrial production (1977-100) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (1977-100) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 726. France, index of industrial production (1977-100) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (1977-100) 727. Italy, index of Industrial production (1977-100) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (1977-100) 1984 January February March 118.4 119.3 120.1 108 108 107 131.5 135.4 134.2 106 108 105 105 104 105 105 104 103 106.0 104.0 108.0 111.0 108.0 110.0 April May Jung 120.7 121.3 122.3 106 107 105 106 102 105 103 102 104 135.1 137.9 138.6 95 103 103 104.3 108.0 108.4 109.9 110.3 111.3 July August September 123.2 123.5 123.3 108 109 109 139.2 140.2 139.4 109 108 108 107 107 105 102 102 103 107.3 108.0 110.7 115.1 114.5 112.2 October November December 122.7 123.4 123.3 109 109 108 143.3 143.4 142.7 109 110 109 107 105 103 103 103 104 107.5 107.0 107.4 112.2 114.1 115.0 123.6 123.7 124.0 108 110 111 143.0 143.4 141.9 110 109 110 101 105 107 106 106 108 102.8 111.5 111.7 113.9 114.0 114.2 April May June 124.1 124,1 124.3 130 111 111 144.9 147.4 144.9 110 111 112 104 105 104 109 109 108 107.6 108.5 1 1 1 i 1 XI . L 115.0 115.0 116.4 July August September 124.1 125.2 125.1 112 111 112 147.2 145.5 144.5 116 112 112 108 108 105 108 108 109 107.3 105.8 110.6 118.1 118.1 118.0 October November December 124.4 125.4 126.4 112 114 110 144.8 144.2 144.6 116 116 108 110 i nd 106.9 110.9 119.1 120.1 i in 107 109 107 i nc a J.UD . U ion n XC\J • U 126.7 125.6 124.4 112 113 113 144.6 145.2 144.5 113 113 112 104 105 105 108 rllO 109 T108.0 rlll.O rll4.5 120.0 rl21,0 rll7.2 rl25.2 rl24.7 pl24.1 P113 (NA) P144.6 (NA) P113 (NA) plO9 (NA) pill (NA) P116.0 (NA) 1985 January February March . . 1U/ 1986 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pace 58. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 94 JULY 1986 120.8 P118.4 (NA) OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued CONSUMER PRICES Japan United States Year and month 320. Index © (1967 = 100) 320c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 738. Index © West Germany 738c. Change over 6-month spans1 (1967 = 100) (Ann. rate, percent) 735. Index © (1967 = 100) France 735c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 736. Index© (1967-100) United Kingdom 736c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 732. Index © (1967 = 100) 732c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1984 January February March 305.2 306.6 307.3 4.6 4.3 4.2 312.3 314.2 315.1 2.7 2.4 1.5 206.6 207.1 207.3 2.6 2.5' 1.9 425.4 428.0 431.0 6.6 6.6 6.9 550.4 552.6 554.4 4.1 4.0 3.7 April May June 308. 309. 310. 3.6 3.7 3.9 315.9 318.2 315.6 2.5 -0.1 0.8 207.7 207.8 208.6 1.6 1.3 0.9 433.6 436. 438. 6.8 7.0 7.2 561.8 563.9 565.3 3.6 5.1 5.1 July August September . . . 311.7 313.0 314.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 •316.2 313.4 318.5 1.6 1.9 3.8 208.2 207.8 208.0 1.6 1.7 2.1 441.5 443.7 445.9 7.7 7.4 6.8 564.7 570.0 571.1 5.*7 5.9 5.4 October November . . . December , . . 315.3 315.3 315.5 3.5 3.3 3.5 321.0 319.0 319.6 3.2 3.0 2.5 209.2 209.6 209.8 2.7 3.4 4.3 449.0 450.3 451.2 6.4 5.9 5.8 574.6 576.4 575.9 6.5 5.8 7.1 January February March 316.1 317.4 318.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 321.3 318.7 320.2 2.2 1.3 1.4 211.0 211.9 212.6 3.4 3.4 2.4 453.5 455.8 459.0 5.5 5.5 6.0 578.0 582.7 588.1 8.2 8.3 8.5 April May June 320.1 321.3 322.3 3.6 3.4 2.8 321.9 323.3 323.5 1.6 1.7 0.9 212.9 213.1 213.3 1.6 0.9 0.2 462.2 464.5 466.4 5.8 5.3 4.7 600.6 603, 6,04, 7.3 6.6 4.7 July August September . . . 322.8 323. 324. 2.9 3.6 3.8 323.8 320.7 323.8 2.2 2.4 1.7 212.9 212.2 212.6 0.0 0.2 1-1 468.2 468.7 469.2 4.1 3.9 3.3 603. 605. 604.8 2.8 2.7 3.1 October November . . . December . . . 325, 326. 327.4 4.1 2.9 1.6 328.4 325.0 325.2 1.1 1.9 1.0 212.9 213.3 213.5 1.0 0.3 -0.2 470.6 471.5 472.1 2.7 1.7 1.4 605.8 607.9 608.7 4.0 3.6 3.6 January February March 328.4 327.5 326.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.2 325.8 324.4 323.5 -0.6 -0.2 (NA) 213.8 213.3 212.8 -0.5 -0.8 -1.3 472. 471. 472. 1.6 1.1 (NA) 610.0 612.2 613.0 3.2 2.8 2.0 April May June 325.3 326.3 327.9 1985 1986 324.7 326.9 (NA) 212.6 212.6 212.9 474.7 475.6 (NA) 619,0 620.1 619.8 July August September . . . October November . . . December . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. 1 Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. ItCII JULY 1986 95 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued ! CONSUMER PRICES—Continued STOCK PRICES 733c. Change over 6-month spans' 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © 748. Japan, index of stock prices © 745. West Germany, index of stock prices ® 746. France, index of stock prices © 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices © 747. Italy, index of stock prices © (1967 = 100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967-100) (1967-100) Italy Year and month 737. Index © (1967-100) 737c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 733. Index © 743. Canada, index of stock prices © 1984 January February March 678.3 685.8 690.6 11.1 10.9 10.9 329.2 331.1 331.9 4.3 4.7 3.4 181.0 171.1 171.3 687.6 699.6 736.1 185.3 182.3 178.4 275.9 263.4 261.1 457.2 457 485 125.3 128.7 128.5 April May June 695.4 699.6 703.8 10.0 9.4 8.1 332.7 333.3 334.7 3.1 2.3 3.0 171, 170. 166, 776.0 744.6 711.2 177.9 178.0 175.8 285.4 277.1 272.3 495.0 489.6 468.7 124.9 122.5 119.6 July August September . . . 705.9 708.0 713.0 6.8 6.4 6.8 336.6 336.6 336.9 2.5 3.4 4.2 164.3 178.9 180.7 701.3 728.8 738.6 167.2 172.0 178.3 256, 274. 287.0 447.5 478.6 497.0 121.4 128.7 127.6 October November . . . December . . . 720.1 724.4 729.5 7.2 7.7 337. 339. 339.9 4.3 5.2 4.4 179.3 180.9 178.9 760.5 774.7 804.7 185, 185, 187.4 287.9 286.0 285.2 503.7 525.9 551.2 127.4 130.5 130.5 January February March 736.8 744.2 749.4 10.7 11.1 10.4 341.3 343.5 344.3 5.3 4.5 4.0 186.7 196.8 195.2 839.5 851.9 900.4 195.1 202.0 213.4 294.3 307.9 317.8 578.1 585.1 592.3 147.2 164.1 165.0 April May June 756.1 760.6 764.4 10.0 9.4 8.5 345.7 346.5 348.3 3.4 2.9 3.6 196.5 201.1 205.5 880. 890. 915.0 212.5 218.7 234.2 328.9 336.4 337.2 592.0 607.0 591.3 164.4 188.7 199.0 July August September . . . 766. 768. 771. 7.5 6.0 7.0 349.5 350.1 350.5 3.1 3.4 4.7 209.4 204.8 200.2 941.6 915.9 915.0 234.8 237.4 253.2 321.9 r316.8 312.3 568.4 597.0 605.7 212.9 r229.8 246.4 October 780.6 786.1 791.6 6.2 6.2 6.2 351.7 353.1 354.7 5.2 5.0 4.6 202.5 214.8 225.5 930. 910. 933.9 273.6 r293.2 r294.9 300.4 r338.9 r356.3 617.4 652.0 r644.5 251.1 263.9 285.2 January February March 795.6 801.2 804.4 5.8 6.8 5.5 356.3 357.7 358.5 4.5 4.8 2.9 226.5 238.6 252.7 936.5 964.8 rpl,048.0 327.1 320.8 329.6 383, 409, 450, 647.8 690.0 755.0 303.8 343.9 430.2 April May June 806.8 809.9 813.1 258.9 259.4 266.8 rpl,115.6 rpl,157.0 rpl,237.6 345.8 P316.6 rp309.5 rp507.5 rp522.8 rp473.0 780.3 rp756.3 rp765.5 (NA) P263.6 pi,276.6 P290.1 P499.3 P760.9 1985 November , . . December . . . 1986 359.1 360.7 361.3 July August September . . . October November . , . December . , . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. I Changcs over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. 96 JULY 1986 APPENDIXES B. Current Adjustment Factors Series Jan. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance . . ../... ••. 144.1 101.3 1 13, New business incorpprations .".' •15. 105.3 Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing,corporations2. . . ... . . 33. Net change in mortgage debt Feb. Mar. Apr. May 1 3 89.8 93.1 82.8 1986 June July 87.4 105.4 91.3 103.8 106.3 102.8 104.1 101.4 108.6 97.3 -692 -3776 -1172 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec 86.1 81.5 95.6 105.8 94.4 96.8 104.5 99.6 85.2 127.0 100.3 94.5 1053 446 1408- 743 1805 785 -56 51 -512 99.7 100.3 100.3 100.5 100.4 100.2 99.8 99.7 99.6 99.9 99.9 86.8 80.5 91.3 84.6 124.1 107.8 101.6 108.8 81.0 72.8 78.7 186.2 70.1 119.9 92.0 101.3 98.6 96.6 93.7 96.5 97.5 100.1 101.4 99.8 99.8 100.1 100.0 99.4 100.0 100.1 100.2 100.3 95.5 100.8 100.6 100.8 99.5 102.2 100.7 97.7 100.9 95.4 104.4 112.4 103.8 94.9 92.5 82.6 84.5 90.7 99.5 114.0 109,1 96.1 90.2 111.3 100.0 104.1 104.7 100.9 95.4 98.3 104.8 96.1 97.9 petroleum and petroleum 614-. Imports of products1. ' 98.3 82.5 ,616. Imports of automobiles and parts 1 106.0 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars'*. 99.7 gross obligations 517. Defense Department incurred 1 .. . . . . . . . . v . . . 121.1 92.2 101.9 95.1 525. Defense Department prime contract awards 114.9 100.3 111.5 84.3 543. Defense Department gross unpaid "obligations outstanding 104.1 . 103.6 103.2 103.6 570. Employment, defense products industries . 100.2 100.1 580. •Defense Department net outlays1 100.5 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products 109.3 107.1 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery .. . 100.0 84.5 93.7 92.0 108.2 108.3 103.1 111.7 113.1 97.7 106.2 93.5 109.3 107.9 112.0 110.0 96.5 81.5 95.0 98.6 94.7 95.4 NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared,by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No, 15, THE X-u VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. l Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter. 3 These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. ' These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method AII seasonal adjustment program. These factors apply only to the loans portion of this series. 97 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Year Jan. 1 9 5 2 1 9 5 3 1 9 5 4 1 9 5 5 1 9 5 6 1 9 5 1 9 5 8 1 9 5 9 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 1 1 9 6 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 ... . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . 89.7 87.2 88.0 '87.4 88.8 92,7 94.3 94.8 94.7 95.2 95.0 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 9 2 4 4 4 5 4 . . . . . . . . . . . 3 0 7 7 2 8 4 8 7 2 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 9 6 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 5 1 9 6 6 1 9 6 7 1 9 6 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 3 ... . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 . .. 9 . . . 0 . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . 94.7 95.2 95,2 98.6 100.1 101.1 104.3 109.3 111.8 116.3 124.5 146.6 171.8 179.4 188.1 200.1 220.8 254.9 284.8 298.3 299.9 308.0 309.5 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 7 7 9 0 2 6 8 9 0 0 0 4 5 9 9 1 4 9 2 7 6 9 1 9 0 2 4 0 7 8 0 8 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 4 3 9 9 8 7 8 3 9 5 3 4 2 1 1 2 2 6 6 9 9 1 9 4 9 5 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 6 1 2 2 3 3 3 330C. C H A N G E 1 9 5 2 . . . 1 9 5 3 . , . 1 9 5 4 . . . 1 9 5 5 . . . 1 9 5 6 . . . 1 9 5 7 . . . 1 9 5 8 . . . 1 9 5 9 . . . 1 9 6 0 . . . 1 9 6 1 . . . 1 9 6 2 . . . 1 9 6 3 . . . 1 9 6 4 . . . 1 9 6 5 . . . 1966 . . . 1 9 6 7 . . . 1968. . . 1 9 6 9 . . . 1 9 7 0 . . . 1 9 7 1 . . . 1 9 7 2 . . . 1 9 7 3 . . . 1 9 7 4 . , , 1 9 7 5 . . . 1 9 7 6 . . . 197 7 ... 1 9 7 8 . . . 1 9 7 9 . .. 1 9 8 0 . . . 1 1 1 1 1 982* 9 8 3 9 8 4 9 8 5 9 8 6 .*.! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 •1 . 5 0 .7 0.1 -0.3 0.1 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 -. 0 . 17 0 o * . 5 0 . 4 0 . 4 0 . 5 2 . 1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 -1.3 -0.1 -0.5 0.3 0.2 5.8 0.2 0.5 -0.4 0.3 -1.7 0 0 . . 7 0 0 0 .0 . . 0 . 0 . 0 . 1 . 2 . 1.2 0.7 0.6 -0.3 0.6 0.5 0 . 3 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 7 1 . 8 0 . 7 0 . 3 5 0.5 1.5 1.8 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.9 1.6 0.3 1 . 2 1 . 5 1 . 2 2 0 . 2 3 0 . 3 1 - 0 . 1 I - 0 . 2 0.4 0,3 0,2 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 - 0 . . . . . . . . . 1 0 5 1 0 1 3 3 1 0 . 0 . 1 . 0 . 0 . - 0 . - 0 . 0 . - 0 . 1.2 1.4 1.5 0.3 0 , 0 . 0, 0. 5 7 0 :> 5 0 -0 . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0. 0. 0. 0. o!s -0.3 0.6 -0.1 6 2 2 1 1 . . . . . 0 0 . . . . 0 . 9 8 2 7 9 2 1 7 2 I NPRODUCER 0 .1 = 0.4 -2.2 1.8 -0.7 5 0 1 8 1 3.9 2.4 0.6 0.0 2 - 0 . 6 3 - 0 . 2 3 - 0 , 4 8 4 . 3 -0.8 0.2 -1.3 3.8 - 4 0 0 , . . 0 5 . 0 2 . 4 1 . 3 0 . 5 1 . 3 . 5 3 . . 6 0.4 3.4 6-MONTH SPANS 0 0 0 0 , . . . 0 0 0 - . . 5 3 2 5 . 0 . 0 - 0 0 0 . 2 - 0 . 2 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 1 0 . 2 - 0 . 1 0 . 3 0 Q . 0 . l . ~ 0 . 0 0 i ^\ 1 t ^f 0 . '* 0 * . 7 . 5 . 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 . 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 0 0.9 1,8 . 9 - 0 . 2 . 3 0 . 8 . . 2 . 2 3 . 5 o!9 4 1 . K 0 . 1 . 66 0 1 . 1 0 0 . 0 . 21 o 0 0 . 02. 0 0 - 0 . 20 . 5 0 ,- 0 . 12 0 8 1 0 1.7 -0.4 -1.9 1.9 0.0 -1.5 1 . 1 0 . 4 - 0 . 2 4 0 0 . . 7 0 - 3 . 1- 3 . 7 - 0 . -9 1 . 6 0 . 1 . 00 . 0 0 0 0 . . . 9 6 4 2 0 0 0.3 0 .* l!o . 0 . 4 . 5 ! l . 2 . 0 . 1 o!s o! o!e 1, Q.t 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.0 0 .4 . 1.3 1.9 1 0 1 2 1.4 1,7 5.2 10.3 22.8 3.3 3.9 12.3 15.8 7.2 2 4 1 0 1 1 6 9 2 2.6 7.8 14.0 11.7 1.2 1.1 2.9 -1.0 -0.2 7.4 12.3 17.4 11.0 1.5 0.4 3*3 -1.0 -1.8 1.8 1.6 0.8 1.8 1.2 2.2 1 . 6 2. J 3 4 . . 8 5 1 .6 . 8 13.0 9.2 1.1 2.1 7.0 8.7 . . . 1 4 . 9 . 3 . 0 . 3 . =1 - 2 . 8 5 7 0 9 8 9 2 .1 0 4.5 2,1 8.3 14.0 11.7 1 .8 1.2 3.6 -1 .2 -0.9 4.1 2.0 7.5 13.5 11,6 1.0 1.1 2.7 -0.8 -0.2 4.3 3.8 7.7 14.4 11.8 0.7 0.9 2.5 -1.0 0.6 1 .j 2. I 8. I 1 9 . 2 4 . 5. 9. 15. 10. 1 -o! - 1 -o!" j * 1 , iI J I 5 4 3 . 3 . 4 . 9 1 2 . 0 1 0 . 7 7 1 3 1 9 1 0 . 3 1 0 2 - 1 . 0 - 1 . 9 - 3 . 7 -0.3 »0.2 5 1 1 2 9 8 1.6 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0,3 o!i 0.1 "0,0 FOR P E R I O D -1.9 0.9 -1.6 . . 3 . . . l - 1 . 2 1 . 7 - 0 . 5 0 2 . 0 1.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 o'A .- 0 . 40 0 . 4 .9 1 0 1 4 5 3 8 6 0.2 0*.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.4 4 4 1 . 7 0 . 8 1 . 3 3 . 3 5. 3 4 . 7 8. J 13. 10. ? 6. I 1 .L 2. 1 1. I -1. I 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 0 1 4 1 .7 5.7 7.3 10.9 15.1 12.5 8.2 1.4 2.2 2.5 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.4 3.7 1.6 0.6 0.2 1.0 1 .4 -1.0 0.4 1.5 4.2 »1 .4 3.1 4.1 0.0 1.3 5 0.0 5 2 4 4 6 0 3.2 1.6 -0.3 -1.6 -0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 2.6 0 .0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1 2 3 4 1 1 3 0 0 4 4 5 -0 .8 0.4 1.5 1 .1 . . o!2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 . . 0 . 0 . 0 . 2 . . . 0 . . .9 1 6 6 1. J 2 - 0 . 7 «0 .3 -0.2 4 2 0 0 3 i -1 . 4 1 . . 4 0 . . . 4 0 . 1 .0 6 0.2 0.5 0.0 0 .4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 5 . 0 . 2 . 38 . 2 . 08 . 1 . 43 1 . 4 . - 1 3. 3 0 . 1 .- 1 . 21 . - 0 3. 7 . 3 . 60 1.1 -0.6 -1.5 . 0 FOR P E R I O D 4 1 1 1 5 2 1 0 1 5 2 1 1 5 65 0 . 4 0 . 1 6 0 . 5 0 . 8 1 . 2 1 . 0 . 2 2 .0 2 1 8 8 . 6 8 7 . 4 8 7 . 6 8 7 . 1 90. 9 3 . < 9 4 . ( 9 4 . ( 94. S 9 4 . « 9 4 , ( 94 •i 9 4 . 1 96.e 99.8 100.0 102.5 106.5 110.4 114.0 119.1 134.7 160.1 174.9 183.0 194.2 209.3 235.6 268.8 293.4 299.3 303.1 310.3 308.8 0 . 0 . 0 . . . . 0 . . 0 . 0 . 0 . . 0 . , AVERAGE - 5 3 4 1 6 . 1 7 . . . 3 5 . 65 52 0 3 . 89 2 . . 4 4 . 9 . 8 5 . . 9 1 9 . . 9 8 . 9 . 85 5 . 2 1 3 . 91 1 . 3 9 . 2 1 7 . 11 5 . 2 1 1 3 . 9 1 1 1 . 8 6 . 5 1 . 1 0 6. 9 1 . 5 0 . 1 . 99 . 8 3 . 0 . 88 2 3 . 6 0 - 0 . 5 - 0 . 3 - 3 . 4 NOTE: These series contain no rev Is Ions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-flionth changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 0 . -1 . 0. 2 1. 2 8 7 . 7 8 7 . 4 87 .1 88.4 92.0 93,8 94.5 94.4 94.9 94.4 94.8 9 4,7 94.9 97.6 99.9 100.3 103.3 108.0 110.9 114.9 121 ,2 139.9 171.2 178.6 186.0 197.2 216.0 247.5 279.2 295.8 300.3 305.9 309.8 309.2 © 4. 2. j 2 0. I -0. i 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 2 2 0 8 - 3 , 4 0 . 0 - 0 . 7 2 5 . 4 2 5 . . 1 8.1 11.8 15.3 13.1 10.2 2.4 i.l 3.4 -0.4 . -2.7 1.2 -0.9 16.4 21.7 4 . 2 5 10.6 11.4 15.7 14.2 11,0 2.1 0.8 4.0 -0.3 . .4 8 6 7 2 1 - 1 . 8 0.0 - 1 . 6 2 2 . 5 2 0 . 6 2.2 2.7 9.9 10.7 14.5 14.5 11.5 1.3 0.5 3.5 -0 .1 0 . . . . -1.1 1.6 -2.3 2.9 2 1 . 8 2 4 . 0 3 7 » - 0 0 0 0 -0, 4 - 1 . 1 1 ,S 1 . 8 0. 3 - 0 . 9 3 18.3 21.2 . 8 4 0 . 0 . 5 0 P R I C E I N D E X , A L L C O M M O D I T I E SO V, E R PERCENT) ( A N N U A L RATE, 2 2 2 - 0 . 2 0 4 , 6 3 5 6 . . . . . . . . . . = 0.1 - 0 . 5 0 . 3 0 . 0 - 0 . 6 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 .5 1 .0 1.5 2.1 -1.8 4.0 1 9 7 1 9 7 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.4 0.1 . . 0 . - 1 . - 1 . 2 , ! . . . . - 0 . 1 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 S 0 3 0 0.6 -1 .7 -0.4 1.9 ! . . . . 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0,4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 3 1 a I . . . . . - 0 . 8 0 . 5 - 0 . 1 0 . 3 - 0 . 2 - 0 . 2 - 0 . 2 - 0 . 5 - 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 0 0 . 7 Annual FOR P E R I O D 88.8 87.9 87.6 88.1 91 .1 93.8 94.5 94.8 94.7 94.3 94.9 94,6 94.7 97.0' 100.6 100.1 102.7 107.0 110.8 114.8 119.9 138.7 165.4 176.7 184.3 194.9 211.2 239.1 272.9 296.1 300.0 304.4 310.6 307.3 AVERAGE . -9 0 . 3 . 0 2. 1 . 50 . 1 = . 0 1. 1 0 0 , 5 0 0 . 1 0 . 0 . 30 = . 00. 1 0 . 10 . 3 . 0 . 31 . 30 . 1 0 . - 40 . 1 . 0 0. 0 . 0 , 26 0 5 3 IV Q ® - 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0 . 0 . . SPANS -0.4 0.5 -0.5 0.8 . . o! a . . 0 1-MONTH 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 8 8 . 5 8 8 7 . 08 9 . 4 8 7 , 0 2 8 7 . ^8 7 . 2 8 7 . 8 3 8 6 . «8 7 . 8 8 7 . 5 2 8 8 , 8: 7 . 5 9 0 . 6 0 9 2 . 8. 9 . 2 9 3 , 0 7 9 4 .9 2 . 7 9 4 . 7 94. S 6 94. ( 9 5 . 1 3 9 4 . .9 4 . J 9 5 . 0 9 9 4 . f9 4 . i 9 4 . 3 3 9 4 . <9 5 . I 9 4 . 4 9 9 4 . (9 4 . > 9 9 4 9 4 . > 9 4 . 3 94,*4 . 9 9 4 , <9 4 * . i 9 6 . 3 . 5 9 8 .9 5 . J + 9 9 . 5 . 8 9 9 . i9 9 . 100. i 9 9 . 9 9 9 . 7 1 0 1 . 7 1 0 2 . 3 1 0 3 . 1 0 4 . 8 1 0 6 . 2 1 0 8 . 109.6 110.1 1 1 1 . 0 112.6 113.9 1 1 5 . 6 117.0 118.2 1 2 2 . 9 127.1 133.2 1 4 1 , 8 149.2 154.5 1 7 1 . 5 171.2 173.0 1 7 8 . 7 179.5 182.1 1 8 7 . 1 190.1 194.7 1 9 8 . 2 202.0 208.0 2 1 7 . 5 2 4 9 . 7 223.9 231.8 2 8 0 . 8 259.0 264.2 2 9 5 . 8 287.6 294.1 3 0 0 . 7 298.3 298.6 3 0 6 . 1 300.5 301.5 3 0 9 . 8 309.3 311.4 3 1 0 . 2 309.1 309.4 . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 -0 .3 0.0 0.3 - 0 - 0 IIIQ II Q IQ 0.6 1.3 0.5 0 .1 -0.2 0. L 0. > -0. - 0 . > 0 . J - 0 . I 0 . L 0 . 0 -0. I -0. + -0. I 0. 3 -0. 2 0. 3 = 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 ! . . . . A L L C O M M O D I T I E S , OVER P E R C E N T ) 0 . 6 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 1 2 . 3 1 . 3 - 0 . 5 0 . 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 o 1 2 3 4 94.9 97.1 100.7 100.1 102.9 107.1 111.0 114.6 120.2 139.7 167.2 177.7 184.8 195.3 212.4 242.0 274.6 295.7 299.3 305.3 309.3 305.5 5 4 9 9 9 0 3 0 - 3 . 5 - 1 . 4 1 . 8 ? 7 7 7 7 94.5 97.0 100.7 100.0 102.5 106.9 110.4 115.1 119.9 142,1 167.4 176.7 183,8 194.6 210.6 238,3 273.8 296.4 300.2 304.7 310.7 307.3 PRICE I N D E X Dec. AVERAGE 94.6 97.0 100.3 100.3 102.8 107.0 110.9 114.7 119.7 134.3 161.7 175.7 184.4 194.8 210.7 236.9 270.4 296.2 300.4 303,2 311.9 309.0 , . . . . . . . 0 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 7 9 9 100.1 1 0 3 . 3 1 0 8 . 1 1 1 0 . 9 1 1 4 . 6 1 2 0 . 7 1 3 9 . 2 1 7 1 . 9 1 7 8 . 2 1 8 5 . 6 1 9 7 . 1 2 1 5 . 7 2 4 7 . 2 2 T 9 . 1 2 9 5 . 5 3 0 0 . 3 3 0 5 . 5 3 1 0 . 3 3 0 9 - 5 9 4. 3 9 4 . 3 9 4 . 96. 2 9 6 . 9 99. 5 9 9 . 6 100.2 99. 7 102.5 1 0 2 . + 106.8 1 0 6 . 3 110.4 1 1 0 . D 114.4 1 1 3 . § 118.8 1 1 8 . 2 136.0 1 3 3 . I 1 5 5 . 3 155.7 173.7 1 7 3 . I 183.2 1 8 1 . J 194.5 1 9 5 . I 209.6 2 0 8 . 3 233.5 2 3 2 . 3 265.6 2 6 4 . 2 294.8 2 9 4 . 1 299.3 2 9 8 . S 302.4 3 0 1 .S 311.3 3 1 1 .J 309.2 3 0 9 . I . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 1 2 - 0 0 . . 8 8 . 2 8 7 . 5 8 7 . 1 8 8 . 6 9 1 . 7 9 3 . 5 94.4 9 4 . 5 9 4 . 9 9 4 . 3 9 4 . 8 9 4 7 9 5 . 0 9 7 . 2 0 0 . 1 00.1 0 2 . 9 0 7 . 4 1 0 . 9 1 4 . 5 2 0 . 0 3 8 . 7 7 0 . 2 7 8 . 9 8 5 , 3 9 6 . 3 1 4 . 9 4 5 . 6 7 7 . 8 9 6 . 1 9 9 . 8 0 6 . 0 0 9 . 4 0 7 . 9 88,7 88.1 87 ,3 88.7 91.7 93.7 94.5 95.0 94.6 94.3 95.4 8 6 7 7 0 3 4 5 4 3 4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 3.4 0.2 0.4 , Nov. 89.1 87.7 87.7 88.0 91.0 94.0 94.5 94.5 94.6 94.3 94.7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 = 0.6 = 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.3 = 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 =0.2 -0.1 0.4 0 Oct. 88.7 88.0 87 .7 87.7 90.5 93.8 94.6 94.8 95.0 94.2 94.6 3 2 3 2 9 ? B 2 3 3 4 1 3 0 5 3 1 6 1 5 0 0 2 1 1 0 3 -3.3 -3.1 1.4 1 .4 3.6 2.9 2.6 1.7 1.5 9 9 9 9 9 94.5 95.9 99.4 99.2 102.1 105.5 110.0 113.4 117.5 130.5 152.7 172.1 181.3 194.3 206.5 230.0 262.8 293.4 298.0 300.6 311.3 309.3 Sept. © 2 9 3 6 7 2 6 0 8 8 3 88. 87. 88. 87. 90. 92. 94. 95. 95. 94. 94. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 9 5 2 . . . 9 5 3 . . . 9 5 4 . . . 9 5 5 ... 9 5 6 . . . 9 5 7 . . . 9 5 8 . .. 9 5 9 . . . 9 6 0 . . . 1 1 1 1 1 . 6 . 5 . 3 . 6 0 2 . 1 0 5 . 4 0 9 . 9 1 3 . 1 1 7 . 4 2 9 . 8 5 1 . 4 7 0 . 4 7 9 , 7 9 2 . 0 0 3 . 7 2 6 . 7 , 9 9 0 . 3 9 8 . 0 0 0 , 6 1 1 . 0 0 8 . 6 I NPRODUCER 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 . . . 3 . . . 4 . . . 5 . . . 6 . . . 7 . . . 8 . . . 88.7 86.8 88.1 87.7 90.2 93.0 94.7 95.2 95.2 94.7 94.6 . . . . , . . . . . . Aug. INDEX, A L L COMMODITIES [ 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 ) - 0 . 4 = 0.2 = 0 . 3 0 . 3 0 . 5 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 - 0 . 1 = 0 . 3 = 0 . 5 0 . 2 0 . 7 - 0 . 2 = 0.4 0.2 0.7 0,6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.3 0 .5 0.3 330C. C H A N G E 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 2 3 7 3 5 7 0 9 2 2 9 9 7 7 7 9 2 5 4 5 5 4 July June May P R O D U C E R P R I C E 3 3 0 . 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 Apr Mar. Feb. . . 4 . 1 . . . . . 1 . -2.6 0,2 -0.3 1.7 4.1 2.0 0.6 -0.1 0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0,4 3.4 1.6 1.1 3.0 s!e 7.1 16.5 18.7 4 .6 5.0 6.2 10.2 15.1 11.9 4.9 1.1 2.4 0.6 -0.8 (JULY 1§86) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. 331. Mar. Apr. 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956.., 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 196 7... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971,.. 114.5 104.1 102.5 99.3 94.1 100.1 100.3 100.9 97.1 97.1 97.9 96.9 95.1 94.4 105.5 102.9 100.2 104.0 112.2 111.3 113.3 103.4 102.3 98.9 95.5 99.0 101.9 100.4 97.2 97.5 97.7 95.7 94.0 95.6 107.6 100.5 100.5 103.2 112.3 114.6 111.7 103.7 102.6 98.0 9 5.1 98.5 103.3 100.6 98.1 96.9 97.4 94.4 94.4 95.9 107.0 99.2 101.0 104.6 113.6 113.1 111.5 101.0 103.0 98.8 96.7 98.3 101.8 101.3 98.1 96.5 96.3 95.0 94.3 97.0 106.4 98,1 101.4 105.8 113,5 115.1 1972,.. 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 120 .6 143.8 202.3 190.3 201.4 205.5 215.0 121.8 150.5 205.5 185.0 198.4 209.9 218.4 121.7 157.4 198.9 182.4 196.6 212.9 223.0 123.7 159.9 193.6 190.1 204.1 218.1 230.4 1979.. . 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 255.8 290.3 330.4 320.1 315.5 335.4 320.8 26 2 .3 295.8 332.8 318.2 317.2 3 29.5 315.2 267.7 290.2 331.6 317.9 320.0 337.1 311.0 2 82,2 333.0 319.4 322.2 335.5 307.3 331C. CHANGE IN PRODUCER 1952... 1953,.. 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959.., 1960... 1961... 196 2... 1963... 196 4... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973 .. . 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980 .. . 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... -1.9 -1.0 1.3 0,7 -0.1 -0.9 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -1.1 1.4 -0,9 0.9 0.6 -0.4 0,5 0.1 0.9 1.4 7.1 -3.2 -1.6 -0.2 1.3 2.6 -0.3 0.7 1.5 -0.3 1.2 -1.4 May PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, June July Aug. 111.3 101.8 102.6 96.2 98.0 98.0 103.6 100 .5 98.3 95.5 96.1 94.7 94.0 98.5 105.6 99.2 100.7 108.7 111.7 115.0 110.7 100.3 100.7 98.1 97.4 100.5 102.2 100.0 97.3 94.0 95.7 95.5 92.9 100.9 105.5 100.2 100.1 110.1 111.8 115.5 110. 6 103. 4 100. 2 97. 2 97. 3 102. 2 102. 6 99. 0 97. 2 95. 0 96. 6 95. 9 93. 4 99. 7 106. 7 99. 9 101. 1 109. 0 112. 1 114. 6 110.8 101.4 99.9 96.1 99.0 102.4 101.9 98.2 95.2 97.3 97.3 95.5 93.8 100.6 107.3 100.0 101.3 110.0 111 .0 114.4 ire -9.8 -12.2 5.5 -1.8 -0.6 -1.2 5.5 -1 .0 0.2 -0.2 -1.2 -6.6 -2.9 3.6 10.3 -12.9 2 .6 6.8 4.4 3.0 13.1 49.7 7.3 -11.4 -3.7 17.4 26.9 20.1 -1.1 4.1 -2.4 4.2 3.6 -10.2 Dec. t Q II Q 99 .6 102 .0 109 .8 113 .4 113 .9 107.8 100.3 99.7 97.0 98.9 99.1 101.8 98.0 96.6 96.9 98.3 95.7 95.3 101.3 105.1 100.1 102.4 111.1 113.4 116.3 107.6 99.8 100.3 94.0 99.3 99.5 102.7 97.5 96.5 96.6 98.9 96.5 95.5 102.5 103 .2 99.5 104.8 112.5 112.0 118.3 105 .1 101 .2 98 .6 94 .2 101 .0 100 .6 101 .0 97.0 9G .9 97 .8 98 .0 93 .8 95 .3 104 .6 102 .3 100 .6 103 .5 112 .1 .3 118 .9 130 .7 186.9 202.0 208.0 201.3 204.5 245.9 188.6 205.0 205.6 202.5 208.9 247.2 .0 188 .9 196 .6 204 .6 205 .9 212 .2 249 .3 113.2 103.7 102.5 98.7 94.9 99.2 101.8 100.6 97.5 97.2 97.7 95.7 94.5 95.3 106.7 100.9 100 .6 103.9 112.7 113.0 121.4 150.6 202.2 185,9 198.8 209.4 218.8 111.2 101.0 102.1 97.7 97.4 98.9 102 .5 100.6 97,9 95.3 96.0 95.1 93.7 98.8 105.8 99,2 100.7 108.2 112.3 115.2 125.0 167 .8 185.5 194.0 205.2 214.4 233.8 109.9 102.3 99.7 96.9 98.5 101.4 101.9 98.7 96.0 96.3 97.9 95.6 94.4 100.2 106.9 99.8 101.5 109.6 112.2 114.3 128.7 188.9 195.4 202.2 204.3 204.8 237.5 3 26.4 323.3 315.7 3 29.6 3 24.3 302.2 330.6 318.6 317.8 327.9 326.9 308.0 328 .2 315.5 316 .6 331 .3 325 .4 307 .0 292.1 331.6 318.7 317.6 334.0 315.7 285.3 333.3 323.0 322,0 333.4 305.6 313.1 331.9 319.1 325.3 330.0 297.4 -0.3 -1.1 -0.6 0.1 0.8 0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -1.0 -0.6 0 .4 -0.5 1.7 -0.5 0.3 -0.3 1 .7 -0.5 0.7 1.2 3.7 -3.8 2.5 2.0 -0.6 108 .2 102 .2 99 .0 97 .3 99 .1 99 .7 101 .2 98 .8 95 .7 96 .6 99 .7 95 .3 96 .1 100 .4 106 .8 203.2 216.1 232.6 175.6 176 .9 196.4 208.3 209.1 238.4 167. 6 190. 9 199. 4 207. 1 206 .8 237. 2 204.8 200.8 201.3 203.2 204.0 235.4 286.0 331.7 324.9 322.1 333.9 305.6 287.8 335.2 324.7 321.6 330.8 303.8 302. 2 335. 3 321. 6 319. 1 332. 5 303 .0 316 .4 332.3 319.0 3 27 .0 329.5 296.1 320 .8 328 .1 316 .7 329 .9 328 .1 293 .1 167.8 186.1 195.4 PRICE INDEX, CRUDE MATERIALS FOFI FURTHI R (PERCENT) OVER 1-MONTH SI ANS 1 -5.8 -2.7 -5.3 -3.7 7.7 4.6 0.2 -3.8 -2.9 -1 .8 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 10.6 0.4 -2.0 1.8 11.2 -1.0 2.4 12.4 57.8 -6.6 18.6 5.6 -4.3 17.9 11.7 15.0 0.2 0.2 5.0 -2.3 -11.3 -7.6 -1.2 -4.9 -5.3 4.9 1.6 -1.3 -6.1 -2.5 3.8 5 .0 0 .6 3.5 8.3 -4.3 1.8 5.7 7 .0 -0.8 4.6 16.5 26.2 17.9 13.0 -1.9 -5.2 12.1 12.4 32.5 -8.3 -3.8 4.8 -4.6 0.1 -10 .8 0 .3 -1 .9 -4 .0 1 .5 0 .9 -2 .5 -2 .4 2 .4 2 .9 -4 .3 -2 .2 1.9 13 .3 -11 .0 1 .5 4 ,9 5 .7 1 .6 12.8 37 .0 17 .0 -9 .3 -3 .3 5 .2 14 .3 21 .6 11 .5 12 .3 -7 .8 -0 .9 -0.2 -0.5 0.6 -3.1 0.4 0.4 0.9 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.6 0.8 0.2 1.2 -1.8 -0.6 2.3 1.3 -1.2 1.7 2.7 -2 .3 1 .4 -1 .7 0 .2 1 .7 1 .1 -1 ,7 -0 .5 0 .4 1 ,2 -0 .9 -2 .8 -0 .2 2 .0 -0 .9 1 .1 -1 .2 -0 .4 -1 .5 0 .5 4 .3 -1.4 -0.5 0.5 -0.2 0.3 -0.8 0,9 -0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -1.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 -1.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 -1.4 -0.9 1 .4 4.2 3.8 2.4 2.8 -0.4 -0.9 0.5 2.5 -3.2 7 1 5 -0 6 -1 1 1.0 -1.9 -1.4 2 .3 -0 .3 -0 .2 1.0 -0.6 0.5 -1.2 0.6 2.2 .1 -0 .5 1 .7 1 .6 1.8 -2.5 -1.3 1.1 2 .1 2 .1 3.3 0.7 1.0 0.4 2 .5 1.0 1.0 1.3 1 .3 0.7 -0 ,3 -0.4 -0.1 0.9 2,3 -1.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 -0.5 -1.2 -0.4 1.7 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 1.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.9 -0.6 -1.5 -0.3 -0.1 -1.2 3.1 -l.*5 0.7 -0.5 0.8 1.9 -1 .0 -0 .4 1 .0 -0 .5 -0 .3 2.4 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 -1.5 -12.9 1.8 -2.0 -1 .2 0,0 -1.0 -2.9 -2.0 4.9 0.8 -3.3 -3 .1 3.9 14.4 -12.3 1.0 3.8 4.2 6.6 13.4 36.5 0 .7 -15.1 -2.9 6.7 14.6 24.2 17 .1 10.6 -8.3 -1.1 1.5 -8.5 -6.3 -8 .1 0 .8 -2 .0 -4 .5 -1 .2 7 .4 -1 .2 -1 .4 2 .5 1 .7 -10 .3 -1 .9 -0 .4 13 .6 -13 .7 2 .8 5 .2 7 .0 -0 .5 14 .2 48 .2 4 .7 -12 .1 -I .9 10 .4 20 .1 24 .4 6 .8 6 .8 -6 .1 2 .1 -9.4 -10.5 3.4 -3.6 5.0 -1.6 5.7 -2.4 0.8 -2.7 -2.1 -6.6 -3.3 7.4 6.0 -8.2 1.3 9.2 0.8 6.0 12.6 54.4 -2.5 -6.9 -0.8 11.5 25.7 20.1 -1.5 3.0 2.5 3.4 2-3 -11.9 0.7 -0.6 0.5 -1.8 -1.7 5 1 0 0 -1 -0 0 -0 0 0 8 5 3 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 2.5 -0.9 -2.3 -10.0 -8.9 -1.0 -1 .0 6.9 -1.0 3 .2 -2.0 0 .6 -5.9 -4.2 -5.0 -1.9 12.1 1.7 -4.1 -1.0 13.2 -0.5 9.7 12.3 57.3 -12.3 -0.2 3.6 3.1 26.2 20.3 -2.4 4.3 5.9 3.2 -0.3 -12.8 -6.7 -1.3 -4.4 -4.2 6.9 4.2 4.6 -3.7 0.2 -4.3 -2.6 -2.1 -3.5 11.5 2.3 -5.7 1.8 9.8 -0.2 6.0 12.5 35.8 -11.0 9.8 5.7 1.3 21.7 16.6 8.4 3.0 0.9 2.3 -1.7 -10.8 -4.4 -3.8 -4.6 -5.6 7.5 7.0 0.0 -4.3 -4.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 -0.4 10.7 -0.6 -1.0 1.6 13.6 -2.3 -0.3 11.8 85.2 -4.5 18.4 4.9 -5.5 16.2 8.6 14.4 -0.3 0.5 6.3 0.0 -11.8 -6.2 -2.9 -6.9 -1.4 8.6 2.5 -4.0 -3.5 -4.8 -0.6 4.8 1.9 3.6 9.6 -0.4 0.8 2.0 10.2 -0.4 1.4 12.9 52.5 -4.3 27.6 6.2 -8.6 15.8 10.0 22.2 -2.1 -0.8 6.3 -5.3 -11.2 -6 5 -1 4 -6 3 -3 6 4 6 1 6 0 0 -6 4 -3 0 0 8 4 2 1 5 2 1 9 1 -2 4 4 1 2 0 10 3 -0 .2 2 .1 11 6 36 6 8 9 19 .7 -2 7 -12 .1 13 .9 10 .8 33 8 -5 7 -2 .3 4 .6 -6 .6 -3 .3 -6.5 -3.9 -4.4 -4.5 2.7 3.1 -1.7 -5.9 -3.6 2.3 5.9 3.8 3.2 8.3 -4.5 0.6 8.3 7.1 0.5 5.8 14.5 26.3 21.3 10.7 -0.7 -6.6 12.9 12.8 33.6 -7.7 -4.3 3.6 -4.1 1.6 2 87 . 5 328 .4 319 .1 316 .7 329 .6 325 .5 305 .7 0 .7 0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -0.1 1.8 1.6 -0.4 -1.9 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 0.6 -0.8 0.9 0.3 -1.4 0.4 -0.8 0.9 -1.6 0.5 0.4 1.2 0.0 2.1 1.1 -0 99 .7 99 .7 101 .8 97 .5 96 .7 97 .1 98 ,4 95 .3 95 .4 102 .8 103 .5 100 .1 103 .6 111 .9 111 .9 117 .8 135 .0 188 .1 201 .2 206 .1 203 .2 208 .5 247 .5 -1 .0 -0 .3 -0 .1 -1 ,1 0 .6 0 .3 -0 .1 -0 .6 0 .4 0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .5 -0 .3 -2 .3 0 .8 -0 .9 1 .2 0 .1 -2 .6 -0 .7 0 .6 0 .5 -0 .7 2 .5 -0 .2 2 .5 -0 .2 -0 .5 -0 .4 0 .7 -0 .2 2 .2 -0 .4 0 .4 -2.8 -1 .5 2,1 1 .6 2.5 106 .8 100 .4 99 .5 95 .1 -0.7 0.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 0.9 1.4 -0.1 1.1 -0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 0.9 4.2 3.3 1.6 -0.9 -0.9 0.2 O.*9 3 .7 -0.7 -0.8 0.9 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 -1.9 -0.3 -1.1 1.7 0.2 -0.7 -0.8 -2.1 2.4 0.7 -0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.9 -1.0 -0.2 0.7 1.1 Annual 110.3 101.9 101.0 97.1 97.6 99.8 102.0 99.4 97.0 96.5 97.5 95.4 94.5 99.3 105.7 100.0 101.6 108.4 112.3 115.1 1 27 .6 174.0 196.1 196.9 202.7 209.2 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 331.0 306.2 AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D -0. 1 3. 1 -0. 5 -0. 9 -0. 1 1.7 0 .4 -1. 0 -0. 1 1,1 0.9 0.4 0.5 -1. 2 1.1 -0. 3 1.0 -1. 0 0. 3 -0. 8 1. 5 -0.2 -2.6 0.4 0.8 1.7 -0.2 -1.5 0.7 0.0 -0.4 -1 .1 0.6 -0.1 1.1 -0.6 -1.1 0.4 IV Q PROCE SSING, 2 .0 2 .7 -1 .3 -0 .7 0 .9 -0 .4 -1 .0 .3 -0.9 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.1 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.7 -0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.4 1 .2 Q .8 -1 .3 0 .0 0 .1 -0 .3 1 .6 1.0 -0.3 0.0 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 1 ,4 -1 .4 0 .3 0 .5 0 .7 -0 .9 1 .4 2 .7 -0 .9 0 .4 -0 .2 0 .6 1 .4 r.3 PR OCI SSIHG, -9 .9 1 .8 -4 ,1 -7 .8 7 .5 0 .2 -2 .3 -5 .9 -0 .8 8 .2 4 .9 -3 .5 5 .2 7 .5 -6.0 0 .8 6 .9 3 .7 -2 .7 6 .0 23 .5 15 .7 23 .5 8 .5 -2 ,3 3 .0 9 .4 13 .5 30 .0 -11 .4 -4 .9 6 .1 -3 ,2 2 .1 -11.4 -1.7 -1.8 -6 .3 5.8 -3.7 -3.3 -3.8 -0.2 6 .2 0 .6 -1.7 2.2 12.0 -7.0 0.6 5.8 6 .0 -1 .4 10.7 26.4 45.7 -0.6 2.0 -1.5 8.1 16.3 10.5 19.5 -8.9 -3.8 10.5 -6.9 -0.1 NOTE: Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 26 month and 6-month changes placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1981. 2 This series contains revisions beginning with 1980. no -0.5 -1.5 -1.9 2.0 -0.6 2.6 -1.4 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 -1.2 2.4 -0.1 1.0 -0.6 1.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 -1 .4 0.3 0.3 -0.9 -0.4 -0.5 1.4 0.2 0 .9 -0.6 -0.3 -1.4 0.4 0,3 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 1.4 1.2 -1.3 -0.1 III Q AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D -0.2 0.8 -0.4 -2.6 1.3 -0.3 1.8 -0.8 0.2 -1.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 1.5 -0.8 1.1 -0.7 2.7 -1.6 -0.1 1 .4 -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 -0,4 1.5 -1.1 1.6 -0.5 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -1.2 -1.2 1.3 2.0 -2.3 0,3 -0.8 0.1 3.0 1.0 -8.4 -10.5 5.7 -8.0 8.7 -2.6 8.4 -4.2 1.6 -2.1 -1.0 -8.3 -5.1 6.4 6.1 -7.6 2 .4 7.6 -1.4 5.4 12.4 56.3 -2.6 -9.1 -2.3 13.9 24.0 19.9 -1.0 0.7 4.0 2.7 3.7 -12.6 Nov. •3 194 .4 194 .6 206 .0 202 .6 203 .5 2 40 .0 331C. CHANGE IK PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, 3RBDE MATERIALS FO I FURTH 3R (ANNUAL RATI'» P]:RCENT> OVER 6-MONTH SPANS' 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959. .. 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966. . . 1967... 196 8... 1969... 1970 ... 1971... 1972. .. 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977 ... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... Oct. Sept. CRUD E MATERIALS FOR FURTHER PROCBSSIHG (1967-100) 4 .4 -10 .2 -8 .8 5 .5 -8 .5 -5 .1 -8.4 -3.5 -2.2 -4.2 4.8 1.4 0.5 -3.7 -0.5 0.5 -0 .2 -2 .1 0.5 9.9 -2.2 -1.7 3 .4 8.3 0.2 6 .4 19.6 38.9 -0.1 5.4 2.0 4.1 19.3 13.9 14.6 -3.2 -0.5 4.6 -3.3 -7.0 (JULY 1986) 99 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Feb. Jan. 33 2 . Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. 1 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955. . . 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973. . , 1974... 1975... 1976.,. 1977... 1978... 86.2 84.9 86.5 86.5 90.2 93.8 94.3 95.0 95.8 95.2 94.8 94.7 95.7 96.0 97.7 99.9 101.1 104.2 108.6 111.8 116,3 123.4 142.6 180.0 184.4 195.6 207.8 86.0 84.9 86.4 86.9 90.4 94.1 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.3 94.8 94,7 95.6 96.0 98.1 99,7 101.6 104.6 108.5 112.0 117.0 125.3 145.2 179.5 184.9 196.6 209.1 85.5 85.3 86.4 86.8 91.1 94.0 94.0 95.3 95.9 95.4 94.9 94.6 95.4 96.1 98.3 99.6 101.7 105.1 108.4 112.6 117.2 127.5 149.3 178.3 185.5 198.3 210.4 85.4 85.3 86.5 87.0 91 .6 93.9 94.0 95.5 95.8 95.3 95,0 94.5 95.4 96.3 98.7 99.5 101.8 105.0 108.9 112.8 117.5 128.2 152.2 178.6 186.1 200.0 211.5 85.2 85.9 86.6 87.2 92.0 93.8 94.0 95.9 95.6 95.0 95.1 95.2 95.3 96.5 99.2 99.5 101.9 105.2 109.3 113.2 117.9 131.1 156.9 177.9 187.1 201.4 213.2 85.5 86.2 86.4 87.4 92.1 94.0 94.1 95.8 95.8 94.8 95.0 95.4 95.1 96.9 99.3 99.6 102.2 105.4 109.7 113.8 118.1 133.5 160.0 177.7 186.6 201.5 214.6 85.3 86.8 86.6 88.1 91.3 94.2 94.2 95.8 95.7 94.7 95.1 95.3 95.2 96.9 99.8 99.9 102.3 105.5 110.1 114.6 118.4 131.3 165.7 178.4 189.7 202.0 215.4 85.5 86.5 86.4 88.4 92.3 94.5 94.3 95.7 95.6 94.7 95.0 95.3 95.2 97.1 100.3 100.0 102.4 106.0 110.3 115.4 118.6 135.1 173.3 180.0 190.3 202.9 217.0 198o!!! 1981 . . . 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 266 !9 296.8 311.6 309.8 317,1 320.4 27K9 298.2 311.0 309.9 317.9 319.0 273.8 301.4 310.2 309.2 319.? 318.6 274.8 305.1 309.5 308.4 320 .2 319.3 276.2 306,3 309.5 309.6 320.9 320.0 278.6 307.2 309.8 311.1 321.3 318.5 281.0 307.9 310.5 312.1 320.9 317.8 247 .7 283.9 309.4 310.1 313.3 320.4 317.4 332C. 1952,.. 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957.. . 1958... 1959... I960.. , 1961... 1962... 1963. 1964... 196 5 . . . 1966... 1967.. . 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971. 197 3 , ' ! ! 1974... 1975 . . . 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 1952, . , 1953... 1954... 1955... 19S6... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962.. , 1963... 196 4 . . . 1965... 1966... 1967... H68... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972,.. 1973.. . 1974... 1975.. . 1976 . , . 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985.. . 1986.. . Nov. Dec. IQ II Q II! Q IV Q 85.4 86.4 86.2 89.6 93.1 94.2 94.5 95.7 95.5 94.5 94.9 95.6 95.8 97.3 99.8 100.3 102.9 106.9 111.2 115.3 120.2 134.7 177.4 182 .4 192.3 204.3 221.2 85 . 1 86 .3 86 . 5 89 . 7 93 . 2 94 .3 94 .6 95 . 8 95 . 3 94 . 7 94 . 8 95 .6 95 . 8 97 .6 99 . 9 100 . 7 103 . 1 107 , 4 111 . 3 115 . 6 121 . 2 136 . 1 179 . 5 183 . 1 193 .6 205 . 7 223 .2 84.8 86.4 86.4 89.9 93.4 94.4 95.0 95.7 95.1 94.9 94.8 95.7 96.0 97.5 99.9 101.1 103.7 107.8 111,4 116.2 122.6 139.0 179.4 183.8 194.9 206.6 224.6 25 5.9 287.9 309.6 310.3 315.9 320.4 317.5 25 8 290 . 3 310 .0 310 .7 315 . 9 320 . 7 3 1 8 .6 260.6 2 93.1 310.4 311.0 316.3 320.4 319.9 85,9 85.0 86.4 86.7 90.6 94.0 94.1 95.2 95.8 95.3 94.8 94.7 95.6 96.0 98.0 99.7 101.5 104.6 106.5 112.1 116.8 125.4 145.7 179.3 184.9 196.8 209.1 229.0 270.9 296.8 310.9 309.6 318.2 319.3 85.4 85.8 86.5 87.2 91.9 93.9 94.0 95.7 95.7 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.3 96.6 99.1 99.6 102.0 105.2 109.3 113,3 117.8 130.9 156.4 178.1 187.3 201.0 213.2 237 .7 276.5 306.2 309.6 309.7 320.8 319.3 85.5 86.6 86.4 88.6 92.1 94.4 94.3 95.7 95.6 94.7 95,0 95.3 95.3 97.1 100.1 100.0 102.5 105.9 110.3 115.1 118.6 133,3 170.8 179.7 190.7 202.9 217.1 247 ,9 283.4 309.0 310.3 313.5 320.4 317.5 85.1 86.4 86.4 89,7 93.2 94.3 94.7 95.7 95.3 94.7 94.8 95.6 95.9 97 .5 99.9 100.7 103.2 107.4 111.3 115.7 121.4 136.6 178.8 183.1 193.6 205.5 223.0 258.2 290.4 310.1 310.7 316.0 320.5 318.7 Oct. 85.6 86.4 86.3 89.2 92.6 94.4 94.4 95.6 95.6 94.7 95.0 95.3 95.4 97.2 100.1 100.2 102.7 106.3 110.6 115.4 119.4 133.4 173.5 180.6 192.1 203.9 218.6 251.7 285.2 309.6 310.4 315.2 320.0 317.2 CHANS E IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, INTERM EDIATE MATERIALS, SUPPLI ES, AND COMPONENTS • 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 -0.2 0.0 =0.1 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0,2 0.0 0.1 0,0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.1 o!l o!e =0.2 0.1 0.1 0,1 0,3 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0,1 0.1 -0.1 =0.1 o*.o 0,5 2.6 0.3 0.3 0,4 0.6 1.0 2.4 1.3 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.0 332C. Sept. i!s 1.8 -0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1 .9 0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.7 0.2 0.8 -0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 1 .1 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0 -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 0 -0 ,4 .1 .3 .1 .1 .1 ,1 .1 .2 2 1 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0 .1 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0,0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0,4 0.1 -0.3 0 .1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 4 2 5 .1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0,0 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 -0*.l 0,3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 2.3 0.2 1 .8 0.3 -1.6 0.2 2.9 0.7 -1.3 0.7 1.0 0 8 0 1,3 2.1 0,3 1.3 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.5 1.6 0.4 1.2 - 0 .2 -0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.9 0.3 1.0 0 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.3 1.7 0.9 0,2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.8 1,6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ;2 u 2,8 -0.7 0.3 0.9 0.6 1.1 0,7 1.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1 .4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 4.5 1.7 -0.4 2.1 0.2 -0.4 1 .1 -0.8 -0.4 1.0 2.9 -0.6 3.0 4.1 3.8 2.9 3.9 13.8 27.7 1.4 4 .1 8.2 7.2 13.0 15.3 12.3 -0.2 = 1.2 2.7 -0.7 -3.2 1.9 0.7 -2,1 3.3 0.0 -2.1 4.5 0,2 -1.2 3.8 5.2 5.0 2.5 4.2 -0.6 2.8 -0.4 -0.6 0.8 0.8 -0.6 1.7 0.2 -0.6 0.2 1.3 -1.3 1.9 -0.2 1 .7 -0.2 «1.0 0.6 1.3 -1.0 1.9 0.6 1 .1 -0.4 -1.3 0.4 1 .3 -0.8 2.3 -0.2 2.2 0.0 2.4 0.6 1.6 3.6 4.4 2.8 5.1 i!s 3.3 -0.8 2.4 4.1 3.6 3,4 4,0 17.0 32.9 -1.8 4*4 8.2 7.4 13.4 14.4 11.3 -0.3 -0.7 3.2 -0.4 1 7 9 9 8 1 1 0 \ 3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.3 , 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.2 13.2 35.0 -1.8 6.7 7 .4 16.1 10.8 7.6 -0.7 1.5 2 .4 -1.6 oil 0I2 0.1 0,3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0,2 0.0 0.1 0,2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 -1.6 0.5 -0.9 -0.7 _! 4 -0 2 -0.7 0.0 -2.6 1.7 -1.0 3.6 0.0 -0.6 1.3 -0.3 -1.0 -0.3 0.7 3.3 3.3 0.9 0.6 -0.6 -1.5 0.2 1.5 0.0 2.3 1.1 0.4 -0.6 -1.7 -0.2 2.3 0.8 2.1 2 .2 2.6 1.1 1 .3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 0.8 1.1 2.3 0.9 1.9 -0.2 -1.5 0.2 -0.4 0.6 1.9 1 .2 0,2 1.7 0.0 -1.0 0.2 -0.8 0.8 1.7 1.7 -1 1 0 -0 0 -0 0 1 2 1 9 2 6 2 6 6 7 1 -0.8 1 .9 0.6 -0.4 0.4 «0 .8 0.2 1.5 2.3 1.4 -0.5 2 .2 0.0 -0.5 0.7 0.4 -0.8 0.9 0.4 1.1 -0.4 -1.3 0.4 1.4 -0.6 0.9 1 .4 0.0 -0,9 -0.7 -0.4 1.2 1.3 -0.6 1 .8 0 .3 -0.7 0.3 -0.7 0.5 1.6 2.4 3.0 3.7 4.7 2.5 2.0 2.5 4.2 3.7 4.4 6.1 8.9 30.8 5.7 3.3 3.0 11.4 19.6 10.3 5.9 4.6 9.4 18.0 10.3 2.5 0,7 4.1 -0.2 -0.4 6.2 11.3 19.4 11.2 1.3 -0.5 3.0 -0.7 -2.1 2.2 42.4 0.6 35.0 2.6 35.9 4.3 6.5 7.7 17.1 9.0 7 .7 5^7 8.1 18.3 4.3 9.4 18.5 9.8 3.1 0.5 4.9 0.1 -1.1 -0.6 2.2 1.6 8.5 5.5 0.1 3.9 0.2 -1.0 -0.9 30.9 5.9 7.1 4.3 9.6 16.0 10.5 2.4 0.8 4.1 -0.1 -0.9 25.7 7.0 18.0 6.6 5.1 9.3 17.5 10.7 2.1 0.8 3.4 -0.6 0.9 5.8 10.9 19.3 11.6 2.4 -0.5 3.2 -0.3 0.4 ' i!o 2.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -0.2 0.9 4. 3 2 11 15. 7. 5. 8 6 5 3 5 3.1 14.0 25.3 5.6 5.5 3.6 3.7 16.3 31.0 -0.8 3.4 5.4 3.4 13.0 37.5 0.5 6. 11. 20. 10. 1. 2 3 5 3 0 6.5 11.8 18.3 11.7 0.4 -0.8 2.9 -0.9 -4.5 7.8 7.6 13.7 14.7 11.2 -0.3 -0.6 3.0 -0.8 6.3 7.7 17.2 9.4 6.9 -0.4 2.5 1.4 -1.2 3! 0 -0. 9 -2. 3 NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1981. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 100 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 8.6 18.2 32.5 = 1.9 5 ,3 6.9 8.1 14.6 14.3 9.9 ~0 .4 0.1 3.2 -1.2 -0.3 0.0 0,0 0,2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0,0 -0,2 0.1 -0.1 0 .2 2.6 1 .2 2.0 85.5 66.0 86.5 88.1 92.0 94.1 94.3 95.6 95.6 95.0 94.9 95,2 95.5 96.8 99.2 100.0 102.3 105.8 109.9 114.1 118.7 131.6 162.9 180.0 189.1 201.5 215.6 243 .2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312,3 320.0 318.7 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0,1 CHANCE IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX , INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS, SUPPLII S, AND COMPONENTS OVER 6-MONTH SPANS (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) -2.5 -0.2 0.2 Annual PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS, SUPPLIES, AND COMPONENTS (1967-100) -1. 1. 0, 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. -0, -0. 0.0 0.9 0.4 1.9 2.1 1.3 2.8 3.9 3.5 4.1 6.2 14.4 27,4 2.8 6.1 6.2 9.0 17.0 11.4 5.5 -0.1 2,3 0.9 -1.1 (JULY 1986) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Apr. Mar. 333. May June July Sept. Aug. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ 72.2 72.5 7 4.3 75.1 79.9 86.3 89.5 90.9 91.7 91.8 92.0 92.2 92.8 94.0 95.3 99.0 102.2 105.4 110.2 115.6 118.6 121.0 129.4 158.4 169.7 179.8 193.3 210.0 230.1 256.0 275.2 284.7 291 . 7 298.2 72.6 73.4 74.6 75.8 81.6 87.0 89.7 91.6 91.7 91.8 92.2 92.2 93.3 94.4 96.3 99.6 103.2 106.2 111.1 116.4 119.5 123.0 135.8 161.4 171.9 182.5 196.9 214.7 236.7 262.1 277.9 2 86.2 293.9 300.0 0*1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 .2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.1 0 .4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0 .2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.7 0 .7 0.9 0.3 0 .4 1.1 1.0 0.6 0 .4 0 .5 0.8 r1 PRODD 71.8 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.5 72.7 72.5 73.0 72.6 73.3 72.7 73.9 72.8 74-2 72.5 74.1 72.5 74.2 72.3 74.2 72.3 73.9 72.3 74.0 1954.. 1955., 1956.. 1957., 1958.. 1959.. I960.. 1961,. 1962.. 1963., 1964,. 196 5 . . 1966.. 196 7 . . 1968.. 1969.. 1970.. 1971.. 1972.. 1973.. 1974.. 1975.. 1976.. 1977.. 1978.. 1979.. 1980.. 1981.. 1962.. 1983.. 1984.. 1985.. 1986.. 75*0 79.4 85.9 89.4 90.7 91.6 91.8 92.0 92.2 92.6 93.9 95.0 96.8 101.9 105.1 109.8 115.3 116.1 120.2 128.1 157.0 168.8 178.9 192.2 208.3 228.2 253.7 275.2 284.1 291.0 296.8 75*1 79.9 86.3 89.5 90.8 91.7 91.7 92.0 92.2 92.7 94.0 95.4 99.1 102,2 105.4 110.2 115.7 118.7 121.1 129.2 158.3 169.6 179.8 193.2 210.1 230 .0 256.1 274.5 284.7 291.7 298.6 75*3 80,4 86.6 89.5 91.2 91.8 91.8 92.1 92.2 93.0 94.2 95.6 99.1 102.4 105.6 110.6 115.9 118.9 121.7 130.9 159.9 170.6 180.7 194.5 211.6 232.2 258.1 275.8 285.3 292.3 299.3 75.5 81.2 86.8 89.6 91.3 91.7 91.8 92.2 92.2 93.1 94.4 95.9 99.4 102.9 105.8 110.8 116.2 119.3 122.3 132.4 160.8 171.3 181.5 195.4 213.4 235.7 260.2 276.6 265.6 294.3 299.6 75.8 81.7 87.0 89.7 91.6 91.6 91.8 92.2 92.2 93.4 94.3 96.3 99.7 103.3 106.2 111.2 116.5 119.5 123,2 136.0 161.4 171.8 182.5 196.9 214.7 236.5 262.1 277.7 286.1 293.6 300.0 76.1 82.0 87.1 89.7 91.9 91.7 91.9 92,1 92.3 93.3 94.4 96.7 99.8 103.4 106.5 111.4 116.6 119.7 123.5 138.9 162.0 172.7 183.5 198.5 215.9 237.9 263 .9 279.3 286.8 2 93.8 300.4 76.4 82.1 87.7 89.7 91.8 91.8 91.8 92.3 92.3 93.5 94.5 97.0 99.9 103.7 107.0 111.9 117.1 119.9 123,7 141.8 163.1 173.5 184.5 199.9 217.5 240 .9 265.5 2 80.3 287.3 294.5 300.7 77.1 82.8 88.0 89.6 91.8 91 . 9 91.8 92.3 92.3 93.6 94.6 97.2 100.2 104.0 107.2 112.2 117.4 119.9 124.1 145.5 163.4 174.5 186.1 201 . 3 217.5 243.0 266.7 281.4 288.1 295.0 301.3 77.9 84.0 88.4 89.6 91.9 91.1 91.9 92.3 92.5 93.6 94.8 97.4 100.4 104.2 107.7 112.7 117.2 120.2 124.6 148.3 164.7 175.8 187.2 203.0 219.9 244.5 268.4 281.9 288.4 295.8 299.7 78*7 84.8 88.7 69.8 91.8 91 .7 92.0 92.2 92.6 93.6 94.6 97.8 100.9 104.5 108.1 114.0 116.9 119.6 124.9 151.5 165.6 176 . 4 189.0 203.3 221.4 248.2 270.7 282.5 289.0 295.0 302.7 78*6 85.5 89.0 90.2 91.5 91.6 91 . 9 92.2 92.6 93.6 94.8 98.3 101.2 104.7 108.9 114.6 116.9 119.8 125.5 153.7 166.8 177 . 2 190.4 205.3 223.1 249.6 272.3 2 83.3 289.4 295.9 303.4 79.0 85.6 89.3 90.5 91.5 91.6 91.9 92.3 92.8 93.5 94.9 98.6 101.6 104.7 109.4 114.9 117.7 120.2 126.6 155.1 167.7 178. 7 191 .7 206.7 225.1 250.6 274.2 284.9 290.2 295.6 303.8 CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, CAPITAL EQUIPMENT, OVER 1-MONTH SPANS1 (PERCENT) 1.0 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.5 2.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.3 2*2 2.5 3.1 1.4 6 .3 7.4 3.6 -0.2 1.5 0.4 -0.2 1.1 1.3 1.7 3.5 4.0 2.7 5.5 5.8 2.9 2.5 10 . 4 16.3 7.3 5.7 8.0 8.7 11.5 11.4 5.6 2.4 2.7 2.4 3.1 1.5 3.2 0 .1 0.4 0.5 0 .0 1 .3 1 .7 3 .3 2.9 3 .9 3 .0 4.4 3.4 4.0 5.3 16.7 10.7 6 .4 5.8 7.0 9.6 12.5 10 . 4 4.1 1.8 3.0 3.1 1 .0 4 .7 0.8 5.4 7 .8 4.1 0.4 2.0 -0.2 0.1 0.6 0 .4 1 .8 1 .3 4.0 2.3 3 .6 3 .7 3 .8 2 .8 2 .4 5 .2 25.9 6.8 5 .9 6.9 8.6 8.1 11.3 8.7 4.4 2.3 2.4 1.6 -0.8 1 .7 0.2 8.0 9 .2 4.7 1.1 0.0 -0.1 0 .2 0 .1 1 .0 0 .6 0.9 4.1 3.2 2 .8 5 .0 6 .2 1 .3 0.6 4.4 27.8 6.7 6 .5 8.8 8.4 8.1 11.1 8.0 4.2 2.4 1.1 2.2 -0.3 0 .3 1.5 7.3 8.1 3.3 2.8 -0.3 0.4 0 .4 - 0 .2 0 .9 1 .0 1.5 3 .7 4.0 2 .7 5 .5 6 .1 2 .3 1.7 8 .7 19.1 7 .4 6 .1 8.1 8.7 11.1 11.1 6.3 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.1 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0,1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0,1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0,5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 Q. 1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0 .1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0,1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.1 -0.9 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 —0 .1 0.8 0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 2.7 0 .4 0,3 0.2 2.1 0.4 0.5 0 .2 2 .1 0 .7 0.5 0.3 2 .6 0 .2 0.6 0.3 0.4 1.9 0.8 0.7 -0.5 0.2 2.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.6 0 .6 0.6 0[7 0;7 0 .0 o!s 0 .7 1.1 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.8 0 .5 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0 .3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.6 0 .1 0 .2 -0.5 1.0 0.2 1955 . . . 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 196 9 . . . 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977 . . . 1978... 1979... 1980 . . . 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 333C. CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICE IND EX, CAPITAL EQUIPMENT, NNUAL RATE, PERCENT; o.o 0.0 o.o 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.7 2.2 2 .5 2 .8 2.8 0.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.1 -0.3 19 53 . . 1954.. 1955.. 0.8 2.7 1.9 1.6 1.4 0.5 0.5 o'o -0*3 O.*8 0*8 1*6 6.9 7.4 9.2 1957*.! 1958.. 1959. . I960.. 1961.. 1962.. 1963.. 1964.. 1965.. 1966 . . 1967.. 1968.. 196 9 . . 1970.. 1971.. 1972.. 1973.. 1974.. 1975.. 1976 . . 1977 . . 1978.. 1979, . 1980 . . 1981 . . 1982 . . 1983 . . 1984,. 1985.. 1986.. 2,0 3.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.1 1.7 2.8 3.3 4.0 2.5 5.1 3.9 4.1 4.6 12.4 12.7 7 .C 5.9 6 .9 10 . 2 13.3 9.9 4.4 2.2 3.7 3.1 1.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.9 1.1 0 .4 4.0 3.0 3.1 4.4 5.9 1.2 0.5 1.1 -0.2 0.0 0 .2 0.0 0.9 0.4 1.1 4.2 3.0 2.7 5.1 6.2 0.7 0.5 2.2 -0.4 0.0 0.4 - 0 .2 0 .7 0.9 1.1 3.7 4.0 2.7 5.3 6 .2 1.7 0.5 7.2 22.6 7.1 6 ,3 8.5 8.6 10.1 10.9 7.4 2.7 2.6 1.6 1.7 2.7 -0.2 -0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.9 0.9 1.7 3.9 4.0 2.7 5.7 6.3 2.2 2.0 8.4 18.4 7.7 6 .2 7^8 8.9 11.8 11.1 5.9 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.6 1.6 3 .1 0.2 0.4 0 .7 0 .0 1.7 1.5 3.2 2.9 4.2 2.9 4.3 3.3 5.8 17.4 10.3 6.1 6.1 6.9 9.4 12.4 10.3 4.0 2.0 2.9 2 .8 0.9 3.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.1 1.9 3 .8 2 .4 3.6 3 .5 3.7 3.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.2 2.0 1.3 4.3 2.2 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.1 2.2 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.2 2.0 1.3 3.8 2.2 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.0 1 .5 -1.5 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.3 3.8 2.6 3.5 4.0 3.8 2.3 20.4 9.1 22.5 7.9 26.8 6.5 28.4 6.1 30.9 6.1 27 .7 6 .8 1.8 -0.9 -0.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 1.1 4.0 3.6 2.5 5.5 6.4 1.9 0.8 5.1 24.7 7.2 6.1 5.4 7.2 9.1 11.7 10.9 3.8 1.3 2.5 3 .3 6.4 8.2 9.0 11.4 9.5 3.7 2.3 2.4 2.6 7 .1 8.6 7.2 11.6 8.4 5.1 2.4 2.3 1.8 7 .3 8.9 8.0 10.9 8.1 4.5 2 .2 2.4 0.3 8.4 8.2 7.6 10.9 8.2 4.3 2.4 0.5 2 .1 8.8 8.7 8.0 11.4 7.9 4.1 2.3 1.6 2 .3 9.1 8.4 8.7 11.0 8.0 4.1 2.4 1.2 2.3 NOTE: Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes -e placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1981. 2This series contains revisions beginning with 1980. Annual 72.4 73.6 74.5 76.*7 82.4 87.5 89.8 91,5 91.7 91.8 92.2 92.4 93.3 94.4 96.8 100.0 103.5 106.9 112.0 116.6 119.5 123.5 141 .0 162.5 173.4 184.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 26*.3 279.4 287.2 294.1 300.5 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0 .4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0,0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0,2 0.4 1.7 0.6 0.5 0 ,6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.6 2 .4 1.0 6.0 8.1 4.0 1 .4 1.2 0.0 0 .3 0 .3 0.6 1 .2 1 .3 3 .8 3.1 3 .2 4.3 5 .1 2 .4 2.2 5 .9 22.4 7.9 6 .2 7.4 8.2 9 .2 11.5 8.3 3.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 OVER 6-MONTH SPANS2 1952... 8.0 72,3 74.0 74.6 78.8 85.3 89.0 90.2 91.6 91.6 91 . 9 92.2 92.7 93.6 94.8 98.2 101.2 104.6 108.8 114.5 117.2 119.9 125.7 153.4 166,7 177.4 190.4 205.1 223.2 249.5 272.4 283.6 289.5 295.5 303.3 -0,1 -0.1 0.2 0 .5 0.6 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0,0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0 .7 0.4 0.2 0 .0 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.0 72.6 74.2 7 4.6 7 7.1 83.0 88.0 89.6 91.8 91.6 91.8 92.3 92.4 93.6 94.6 97.2 100.2 104.0 107.3 112.3 117.2 120.0 124.1 145.2 163 .7 174.6 185.9 201.4 218.3 242.8 266.9 281.2 287.9 295.1 300.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0 .8 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 2.2 0.6 0.6 0 .7 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 oa 0.0 0,4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 IV Q AVE RAGE FOR PERIOD 0.1 0.4 0.0 1952... 1953... 1954... III Q AVE 1AGE FOR PERIOD (1967-100) 1952... 1953.. 333C. II Q (JULY 1986) 101 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar 334. 1952... 1953... 1954.. 1955.. 1956,. 1957.. 1958.. 1959.. 1960. . 1961 . . 1962.. 1963.. 1964.. 1965.. 1966.. 196?.. 1968.. 1969.. 1970.. 1971.. 1972.. 1973.. 1974.. 1975.. 1976.. 1977. . 1978.. 1979.. 1980.. 1981.. 1982. . 1983. . 1984.. 1985.. 1986.. 91.2 69.3 89.5 88.8 88.4 91.3 94.1 93.9 93.3 95.0 94.8 94.4 94.7 94.5 98.2 99.5 100.9 104.4 109.6 111.1 114.4 120.8 139.4 159.5 168.4 174.4 186.6 206.1 235.7 262.2 278,0 283.1 288.6 290.5 334C. 1952... 1953 . . . 1954... 19S5 . . . 1956. .. 1957... 1958. . . 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965 . . , 1966... 1967... 1968... 196 9 . . . 1970... 1971.. , i9?siii 1974... 197 5 . . . 1976... 19??.. , 1978... 1979... H80... 1981... 1982... 1983 . . . 1984... 1985... 1986.. . 1968ii. 1969... 1970... 1971 . . . 1972... 1973... 1974... 197 5 . . . 1976... 1977 . . . 1978.. . 1979. .. 1980... 1981 .. . 1982... 1983.. . 1984... 1965... 1986... 91.3 89.0 89.0 88.6 89.1 91.6 95.2 93.6 94.2 94.9 94.6 93.6 94.1 94.9 99.3 99.0 101.8 104.8 109.5 111.6 114.8 125.5 143.7 158.6 167.6 176.2 189.1 210.3 242.0 267.9 277.4 282.5 290.7 289.9 May June 91.0 68.7 89.5 88.8 89.0 91.8 94.6 93.9 94.4 94.4 94.3 93.7 94.1 95.6 99.4 99.3 102.2 105.3 109.6 112.4 114.9 126,4 144.6 160.0 168.7 179,0 191,7 212.4 243.7 270.9 278.0 2 82.8 2 90.8 291.9 90.6 66.9 69.6 88.3 89.8 91.9 94.9 93.7 94.3 93.9 94.3 94,2 94.0 95.9 99.0 99.4 102.3 106.2 109.3 112.8 115.6 127.3 146.2 161.1 168.6 180.3 192.8 213.4 244.6 271.4 277.7 283.8 290.7 292.6 90 .6 89 . 0 89 .1 88 . 9 90 . 2 92 ,3 94 . 7 93 ,7 94 . 4 93 . 8 94 .0 94 . 4 94 , 2 96 . 3 98 .5 100 . 2 102 .6 106 . 8 109 .6 113 . 2 116 . 2 1 2 8 .9 145 .5 162 .5 169 .0 180 . 4 194 .8 214 . 8 246 .9 272 .5 280 . 2 264 .7 290 .5 291 .6 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 90.3 89.3 66.5 88.2 90.6 93.0 94.1 93.3 95.3 93.9 94.7 94.2 94.5 96.9 100.3 100.6 103.9 108.1 110.5 113.6 117.6 133.2 156.2 168.2 171,2 183.5 199.6 226.6 256.6 274.7 2 83.8 286.6 290.0 292.1 90.0 88.9 88.7 86.4 91.0 93.4 94.0 92.9 95.5 94.0 94.8 94.3 94.4 97.3 100.0 100.8 104.0 109.0 110.9 114.0 118.4 134.5 159.4 168.8 172.5 185.0 201.0 229.6 258.4 275.4 285.1 285.5 290.8 294.5 IQ II Q 91 . 0 89 . 2 89 . 3 88 .0 89 .9 92 .6 94 .5 93 . 4 94 .7 94 .0 94 . 0 94 . 4 94 . 3 96 . 2 96 .9 100 . 1 102 ,9 106 .9 109 .7 112 .6 116 . 8 128 . 4 149 . 4 164 .1 169 . 3 181 ,1 196 . 3 217 . 2 251 , 2 272 .9 281 . 4 2 8 4 .6 291 .0 292 .5 90.9 89.1 89.2 86.2 69.8 92.8 94.3 93.1 94.6 94.3 94.6 94.2 94.3 96.4 100.2 100,4 103.0 107.1 109.5 113.4 117.3 134.0 152.0 165.7 169.6 162.1 196.4 219.9 254.2 272.9 282.6 285.5 2 90.3 291.2 89.1 89.0 88.6 88.5 91.2 93.6 94.0 93.2 95.2 94.4 94,5 94.1 94.3 98.1 99.7 101.0 104,1 109.1 110.7 114.8 119.6 135.6 159.1 168,9 173.8 185.6 203.6 232.0 259.5 276.5 286.0 286.4 291.1 296.7 91.2 89.1 89.2 88.8 68.7 91.5 94.5 93.8 93.6 95.1 94.8 94.1 94.3 94.6 98.8 99.3 101.4 104.5 109.5 111.5 114.7 122.9 141.9 159.0 167.9 176.4 187.9 208.3 239.0 26 4 . 8 277.8 282.9 289.5 290.1 90.8 86.9 69.4 88.7 89.7 92.0 94.7 93,8 94.4 94.0 94.2 94.1 94.1 95.9 99.0 99.6 102.4 106.1 109.5 112.6 115.6 127.5 145.5 161.2 168.8 179,9 193.1 213.5 245.1 271.6 278.6 283,8 290.7 292,0 - 0 ,2 0.0 - 0 .2 -0.6 0.1 -0 • 1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0 .3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.6 0 .2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0 .0 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 ).9 ).l -0.2 1.0 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0;2 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 () . 5 -0.1 0 0 -0 -0 0 0 0.6 -0.2 0.6 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.1 - 0 .5 0 .8 0 .3 0 ,3 0.5 0 .4 -0.3 1.0 2.8 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.5 -0.2 0 .5 0.4 1 .2 2.2 -0.3 -0.5 1.2 0.8 1.2 1 .5 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 2.6 0.6 -0.3 0.0 1.0 0,5 0.9 1 .1 1 .3 -0.2 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.2 ).6 () . 7 .0 0.7 - ( .1 .7 ).6 ).5 .4 ).2 - 1 ) .1 0!8 =0.2 0 ; 2 "0 . 2 -0.2 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 ( .4 ( .0 C .2 0 3 4 0 5 1 3 -0 5 0 9 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 7 0 9 0 4 0 9 0 3 -0 1 -0 3 -0.2 ).l -0.3 -1.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0 .0 0.3 0.4 - 0 .1 -0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0 .2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0 .4 0 .4 - 0 .3 0 .3 -0.1 0.2 0.7 -0,2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 3 3 2 0 0 .1 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.2 0.0 1,2 0.0 -0.3 1.0 -0.1 0.2 -1.0 0.7 -0.1 -0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0,4 0 ,0 0.3 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0 .5 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 - 0 ,2 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.0 .1 0 .4 - 0 .1 0 .3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 -0.2 0.3 _ 0.3 a.4 9.3 -0.2 0.7 0.4 4.4 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.6 0 .1 1 .2 1.2 0.0 0.4 0 .3 -0.2 -0.4 1 .1 -0.2 0.7 -0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.3 1.0 1 .9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 -0.2 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.3 0•1 0.0 0.9 0 1 1 3 2 .2 -0 0 0 0 0 0 -2.6 -0.2 0 .2 0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0 .4 3.5 -0.4 2.4 -1.9 0.9 -2.1 -0.2 2.3 5.2 3.2 -0.6 3.0 -3.3 0.6 -1.3 -0.6 3.2 1.9 -0.6 2.6 -2.9 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 4.3 0.9 -1.1 3.0 -2.1 -1.7 0.0 -0.8 3.6 Z.Z 2.7 2.6 3 .5 2.3 15.5 18.2 4.9 3.0 4.3 0.6 5 13 4.0 4.8 0.2 9.3 13.2 15.7 11.5 2.4 -0.7 3.0 1.3 0 -0 0 -0 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 5 5 4 7 0 2 4 8 1 7 1 4 0 2 3 15.6 18.2 2 .1 -0.2 9 .2 8.6 12.7 13.3 10.3 1.7 -0.9 3.7 1.2 0,9 16.2 15.1 4.3 0.1 7.7 10 12 11.3 13.3 10.3 2.7 -0.9 2.9 0.3 13.0 14.9 7•8 n1 3i. l6 8.3 2.5 1.1 1.7 1.4 -0.7 ( .0 .8 -1 1 -0 -0 7 6 g 5 C. 4 .5 .8 .3 -C .6 C .0 c .6 A .1 1 0 -1 1 1 0 3 7 3 9 9 9 1 9 4 4 -] -; 3 .0 5 .4 0 .2 20 .0 l: .8 3 8 5 0 2, 2 13. 2 14 0 i :* 2i 9 io ioi 0 < 11 , 2 12 . 8 6 .5 3 ,4 1 .8 0 .7 0 .6 6 1ni 1. 1 4, 4. 2. -0. -0. 7 0 6 5 2 Si? 1 102 oio -ois 0.4 0.5 1 .2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.4 0 .0 0.1 0.8 -0.2 0.7 1.0 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.6 1.9 - 0 .1 -0.3 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0 .1 0.1 oio -0 .2 0 .0 0 0 •0 0 .2 0 .2 .0 - 0 .1 0 .2 -0 1 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 .1 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 3 0 3 1 1 1 3 0 5 0 2 0 5 0 8 1 1 0 9 0 5 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -1.8 0.0 -3.3 0.0 -3.7 0.7 -3.9 -0.2 -3.3 -1.6 -2.0 -2.0 -0.9 0.5 -2.2 0.5 -3.6 -0.4 -1 3 0.2 -0.9 0.9 0.9 1.6 t .4 J.O 1.5 1 3 9 1 9 1 9 -1.9 - 1 .7 2 .6 0.2 1 .1 0.2 0,9 -1.5 -1.1 1.7 1.3 1.1 -0.6 0.2 -1.3 -0.2 0.6 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 8 2.0 2.5 1.2 - 1 .1 0.4 1.7 1.3 -0.8 -0.4 0.4 5.5 -1.8 -1.7 0.0 0.6 1.3 -3.9 0.0 0.8 5.9 -3,0 0.2 3.0 2,4 2.9 -0.5 2.7 - 2 .7 0.2 -1.2 -0.2 3.3 3.2 _ .4 1.2 -2.1 -0.1 0.4 0.2 3.7 2.1 -0.7 2.6 3.1 -1.5 -1.4 2.1 0.1 1.0 0.2 0,7 3.1 2.1 1.1 3.4 3.9 -1.4 0.1 1.0 1.4 -1.3 0.1 0.5 5.2 -1,2 3 4 5 4 1, 2 5.3 4.4 5.1 4.3 3,9 4.1 5.1 5,0 4.4 2,1 17.9 14.0 13.1 9.4 15.9 6.9 15,8 17,2 15.4 14.2 6.4 2.1 6.4 9.9 12.0 12.5 6.5 3.3 1.8 0.6 0.7 11.1 16.3 9 .4 4.5 5 .4 8.8 15.5 11.0 2.9 4.6 1.7 0.0 1.6 13.6 10.1 2 ,9 6.1 6 .7 11.8 17.6 9.1 3.3 0.4 2,9 -0.2 -1.7 0 4 90 .7 89 . 2 89 .1 68 .5 89 . 8 92 . 4 94 , 4 93 . 6 94 .5 94 . 3 94 .6 94 .1 94 .3 96 . 1 99 . 4 100 . 0 102 ,7 106 .6 109 .9 112 .9 116 .6 129 . 2 149 , 3 163 .6 169 .7 180 .7 1 9 4 .9 217 . 9 248 . 9 271 . 3 281 .0 284 .6 2 90 . 4 291 . 9 Q 0.7 0.2 0.4 0*2 0.4 0 .4 0.7 1.0 2.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 11. 16 10 3. 11.6 18.9 9.6 4.7 10.7 19.6 5 0 5.8 6.1 6.3 9.9 0.2 6. 13. 10. 2. 4. 2. -0. 0. 4 8 9 8 2 7 5 1 8.7 16.0 11.6 3.0 5.4 1.2 0.1 1.3 9.2 16.7 10.5 3.0 4.2 1.2 0.4 3.5 10.2 17.6 6.9 3.8 1.2 2.8 -0.3 1.1 12.7 18.4 8.2 3.7 0.3 2.7 -0.2 -2.3 7 ,1 12,5 16,6 10.3 2.4 -0.3 3.2 -0.1 -3.8 8,7 9.3 12.4 14.1 10.7 2.3 -0.8 3.2 0.9 NGU: Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are 11placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures2 are averages of the centered changes. This series contains revisions beginning with 1981. Th1s series contains revisions beginning with 1980. -0.2 0.1 0.1 - 0 .1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.1 -1 5 1 4 _1 1 -1 0 1 0 2 1 Annual AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -0.2 CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICE INDI X, FINISHED CONSUMER GOODS, OVER 6-MONTH 9PAHS2 (ANNUAL RAT E, PERCE NT) = 2.0 -2.4 1 .6 -0.9 89.8 89.1 86.6 88.4 90.9 93.4 94.0 93.1 95.3 94.1 94.7 94.2 94.4 97.4 100.0 100.8 104.0 108.7 110.7 114,1 118.5 134.4 138.2 168.6 172.5 164.7 201.4 229.5 258.2 275.5 265.0 286.2 290.6 294.4 -0.4 PI = 1.3 -3.5 0 .4 0.7 90.8 69.3 89.0 68.2 90.0 92.7 94.4 93.6 94.6 94.1 94.7 94.2 94.4 96.4 99.9 100.4 103.2 107.1 110.0 113,1 117.4 132.0 151.6 165.3 169.6 162.0 197.0 220.4 253.5 273.3 282.3 285.4 290.4 291.1 -0.1 !e -0 IV Q Q Q 0 Ie 0 .4 III Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 90,5 89.7 88.6 88.4 90.4 92.6 94.4 94.2 94.6 94.0 95.5 94.1 94.5 96.5 100.5 100.7 103.7 107.4 110.7 113.2 118.1 133.5 153.4 166.8 170.0 182.7 196.3 224.1 255.1 274.1 282.9 286.2 290.0 289.6 CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED CONSUMER GOODS, OVER 1-MONTH SPANS1 (PERCENT) -0.7 0 .2 0.6 334C. 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957. .. 19S8... 1959. .. 1960... 1961 .. . 1962.,. 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966.. . 1967,. 91.2 89.1 89.0 89.0 88.6 91.7 94.1 93.6 93,3 95.4 94.9 94.2 94.0 94.5 99.0 99.3 101.5 104.3 109.4 H I .6 114.9 122.3 142.5 159.0 167.6 176.5 188.1 208.5 239.3 264.4 277.9 2 83.0 289.3 290.0 Apr. 1 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED CONSUMER GOODS (1967-100) -2 2 -0 4 -0 5 -0 2 3 0 3 0 0 0 -0 6 2 0 -0 8 0 0 -0 1 0 3 3 8 1 5 1 5 3 4 7 1 Q8 31 si 5 U. 5 13 0 6 1 3 7 6. 8 9. 9 14. 4 11. 7 3. 9 2. 6 1. 4 0. 9 0. 4 (OULY 1986) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Mar; Feb. 335. Apr. May June 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 84.9 84.0 85.1 85.6 89.5 93.0 93,7 94,7 95.7 95.2 95.0 94.7 95.3 95,9 97.4 99.5 101.5 104.3 108.3 112.2 115,9 120.0 135,3 167.5 177.4 188.4 84.9 84.0 84.9 86.0 89.6 93.2 93.4 94.9 95.6 95.2 94.8 94.6 95.2 95.9 97.6 99.7 102.0 104.9 108.6 112.5 116.5 121.3 138.2 168.4 178.1 190.0 84.6 84.3 84.9 85.9 89.9 93.1 93.4 95.2 95.6 95.2 94.8 94.6 95.1 96.0 97.8 99.7 102.2 105.4 108.8 113.0 116.8 122.8 142.4 168.9 179.0 191.7 84.2 84.1 85.0 86.0 90.3 93.1 93.2 95.3 95.6 95.1 94.9 94.4 95.1 96.0 98.1 99.6 102.4 105.5 109.3 83.9 84.4 85.0 85.8 90.4 93.0 93.1 95.4 95.2 94.8 94.9 94.5 95.1 96.2 98.5 99.7 102.3 105.5 109.6 83.6 84.7 84.9 85.9 90.3 93.0 93.1 95.2 95.2 94.6 94.7 94,7 94.9 96.4 98.7 99.7 102.4 105.6 109.9 117.3 124.2 146.6 169,7 180.1 193.3 117.6 125.3 150.5 170.3 180.5 194.2 117.9 126.0 153.6 170.7 181.5 194.7 1979*.!! 1980 . . . 22o!o 222!5 225 .*4 295.7 311.6 299.6 311 .0 319.1 322.9 320.6 322.2 321.9 322.5 229.0 271.3 303.5 309.9 312.4 322.6 323.8 23K6 291.5 311.8 1982*.!! 1983 .. 1984!!! 1985... 1986... 335C. July Aug. 304.7 309.6 313 6 325.3 III Q Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ II Q 84.8 84.1 85.0 85.8 89.7 93.1 93.5 94.9 95.6 95.2 94.9 94.6 95.2 95.9 97.6 99.6 101.9 104.9 108.6 112.6 116.4 121.4 138.6 168.3 178.2 190.0 83.9 84.4 85.0 85,9 90.3 93.0 93.1 95.3 95.3 94.8 94.8 94.5 95.0 96.2 98.4 99.7 102.4 105 . 5 109.6 113.7 117.6 125.2 150.2 170.2 180.7 194.1 222.6 265,0 23K5 272.2 311.5 313.8 320.5 322.5 310.0 313.8 323.2 324.6 -0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0 .0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 - 0 .1 -0.2 0 .0 0.0 - 0 .1 0.1 0.3 0 .0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0 .1 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES ( 1 9 6 7 = 100) 83.9 85.3 84.9 87.3 91,0 93.6 93.7 95.4 95,2 94.6 94.6 94,8 95.1 96.6 99.0 100.0 102.5 106,1 110.2 115.3 118.5 126.7 161.6 172,2 183.8 196.9 84.1 85.2 84.9 88.1 91.4 93.6 93.8 95.4 95.0 94.7 94.8 94.7 95.1 96.6 99.0 100.2 102.8 106.5 110.4 115.1 118.7 127 . 4 162.9 173.1 184.8 197.8 83.9 85.1 85.0 88.4 91.8 93.5 93.9 95.4 95.1 94.5 94.7 94.9 95.5 96.7 99.1 100.5 103.3 107.1 111.2 115.1 118.8 128.5 164.8 174.7 186.3 199.1 83 . 8 85.0 85.3 88.7 92.3 93.5 94.2 95.5 95.0 94.7 94.7 94,9 95.6 97.1 99.2 100.8 103 . 4 107.4 83.9 85.1 85.3 89.0 92.7 93.7 94.5 95.6 95.0 94.9 94.7 95.2 95.8 97.1 99.2 101.1 103.8 107.8 115.0 119.1 130.1 165 . 8 175.4 187.1 199.3 115.5 119.4 132.2 166.1 176.1 187.4 200.0 234.0 2 7 3 .5 305.1 310.6 237.5 240.6 244.2 249.0 250.6 217.2 253.1 306^2 312.8 307*2 313^ 307.4 312.7 309!o 314.3 309.3 315.0 323!s 3 24.8 3 2 3 !9 324.4 323*3 323.7 322 !2 322.3 318.5 323.4 3 24.2 323*8 324.7 3lo!o 315.2 23!o 32s!l 3 CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES, OVER 1-MONTH SPANE (PERCENT) 83.8 85.3 84.9 87.3 90,9 93.5 93.6 95.4 95.1 94.6 94.7 94.8 95.1 96.5 99.0 100.0 102.6 106.1 110.2 115.0 118.4 126.7 160.8 172.2 183.8 196.9 83.9 85.1 85.2 88.7 92.3 93.6 94.2 95.5 95.0 94.7 94.7 95.0 95.6 97.0 99.2 100.8 103.5 107.4 111.4 115.2 119.1 130.3 165.6 175.4 186.9 199.5 84.1 84.8 85.0 86.9 90.8 93.3 93.6 95.3 95.3 94.8 94.8 94.7 95.2 96.4 98.5 100.0 102.5 106.0 110.0 114.1 117,9 125.9 153.8 171.5 182.4 195.1 277.7 306^ 312.9 317.0 323.1 323.5 284 . 0 274.8 304!l 312.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.5 0,0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.9 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 195s!!! 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... o!o _0'3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 o!o 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 _0'2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -o!i 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.0 0 .0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0 .0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0 .0 0.3 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0 .1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0 .1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0 .1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.1 0 .' 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.3 0.8 o!s l!l 2.1 0.5 0.3 1,2 3.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0,6 1.0 O.*l 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.3 1 .2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.". 1.( 0 . 0 .i o.: 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.9 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.9 2.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.4 2.0 0.5 0.6 0.5 0,6 3.0 1.7 0.6 -0.4 0.2 0.0 2.0 1.4 -0.1 0.0 0.5 -0.2 i!o i!o o!& l!3 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.1 1.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.4 CK6 0,3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0 •1 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0 .1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.9 0.5 0.3 0.9 2.7 0.4 0.3 0 .6 2 .1 0.2 o!2 0 .1 2.7 0.3 0.7 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.5 0,6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0 .2 0.1 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0 .6 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0*3 o!s ITIES, 335C. • -2.1 0,5 -0.2 - 2 .6 1.4 0.0 -3.5 1.9 -0.5 -3.3 3.1 -0.5 ^-2.3 3.1 0.0 4.3 2.9 -0.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 0.8 -0.6 0.4 1.0 3.9 1.5 -0.9 2.6 - 0 .6 -0.4 0.4 -0.4 0.4 1.3 2.9 0.6 -1.3 1 .5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 1.3 1.6 0.9 -0.9 1.5 -1.0 -1.3 -0.4 0.2 -0.4 1.0 3.1 0.9 0.6 1.1 -0.8 -1.3 -0.4 0.4 -0.2 1.5 1.0 3.8 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 9.3 30.2 6.0 1.0 3.0 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.6 10.7 33.8 5.5 1.0 2.6 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.2 11.4 35.0 5.6 0.4 1.8 0.6 1 .0 1.0 1.2 3.4 4.3 3.8 10.4 36.0 4.5 3 .0 5.0 3.5 9.1 36.7 4.6 3.3 7.6 30.9 5.0 7.7 7.2 13.8 18.7 15.8 0.6 -1.2 2.6 0.2 7.7 8.3 15.0 17.7 15.6 0.2 -0.9 3.1 0.9 7.9 8.9 16.1 16.8 13.3 0.4 0.1 3.4 1.1 8,1 8.6 16.5 12.3 10.3 0.6 1.7 3.0 0.9 7.4 8.6 16.9 9.5 7.9 1.0 2.2 1.7 0.9 6.5 8.4 17.4 7.7 5,3 1.1 2.3 0.2 -0.1 -1.2 2.1 0.0 -0.2 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 -0.5 0.2 -0.9 0.5 -0.7 -2.7 1.3 -2.3 2.8 -0.1 1.6 ) .9 .5 1.1 2.4 1.5 3.0 0.6 3.0 -0.4 2.6 3.8 -0.4 3.0 3.7 1.7 -0.9 3.4 2 .7 1 .0 0 .2 6 .6 4.3 1 .2 2 .3 0.4 ) .4 .1 >.8 -o!4 0.8 1 .1 -0 .4 0.6 0.0 1.1 1 .9 -0.2 1.1 1.7 0.0 0.8 1.7 -0.4 0.8 1.9 0.3 -0.3 0.1 1.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 1.3 -0.3 1.0 1 .3 1.6 1.0 L.8 .8 J.I 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.8 3.7 4.7 5.1 1 .0 3.1 4.0 2.6 7.0 26.4 6.0 7 .0 6.1 8.5 18.2 8.0 3,7 2.9 3.9 0.5 0,2 2.6 7.8 21,4 6.1 2.6 10.1 16.9 6.4 2.3 3.2 15.1 12.7 7 .4 4.8 19.0 8.6 7.0 7.0 24.9 7.5 6.9 4.2 10.5 33.0 5.7 3.5 9.0 34.5 4.7 5.3 8.5 17.1 8.6 3.0 3.5 3.0 0.4 -0.4 5.5 8.3 17.0 9.8 3.2 3.0 2.0 -0.5 0.2 5.9 9.6 20.4 11.4 3.7 0.7 1.6 -0.6 -0.4 6 .2 10 . 8 22.1 13.0 2.9 0.4 2.1 -0.7 -2.9 6 .5 12.5 21.0 15. 2. 0. 3. 0. -5. 7.8 8.1 15.0 17.7 14.9 0.4 -0.7 3.0 0.7 7.3 8.5 16.9 9.8 7.8 0.9 2.1 1 .6 0.6 - 1 .0 NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0 .0 o!i -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0 .1 o!i 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0 t 0 ,i 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 o!: 1 .3 0." o.e 0." 0 .i 0. 0.3 0.9 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2:3 i!o o!6 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -0.7 2.4 0.0 3 .4 1.1 0.9 0.4 -1.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1 .3 *6 323^ 322 0 (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959,.. I960.. . 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966. . . 1967... 196 8. . . 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980.., 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 314!a 318.4 323 !4 324.7 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 197 9 . . . 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... Annual AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 83.5 85.3 84.9 86.5 90.2 93.4 93.3 95.4 95.2 94.6 94.8 94.8 95.1 96.4 99.0 99.7 102.4 105.7 110.1 114.6 118.1 126 . 1 157.8 171.2 182.7 195.9 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 196 9 . . . 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... IV Q 0.7 1.3 2 .4 3.1 2!3 3.6 3 .3 2.6 2.6 8.3 21.6 6.2 7.0 5.6 8.4 17.4 8.8 3.3 3.1 3.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 -0.7 5 .5 5.0 -0.1 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.9 1.8 2.2 4!5 4.7 4 .3 2.5 5.0 19.7 9.6 7.1 6 .9 n!o 21.2 13.3 3.0 0.5 2.3 -0.4 -2.8 -1.1 1.2 0.6 4.3 3.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 - 0 .5 -0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.7 1.6 2!s 3.7 3 .7 3.4 3.8 11.9 24.7 5.9 6 .6 6.7 9.0 17.6 12.4 7.3 1 .2 1.7 1.1 -0.4 (JULY 1986) 103 E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States Duration in months Trough Cycle Contraction (trough from previous peak) Business cycle reference dates Expansion (trough to peak) Peak from previous peak Trough from previous trough Peak 18 30 22 46 18 34 March 1882 March 1887 July 1890 January 1893 December 1895 ., 65 38 13 10 17 36 22 27 20 18 99 74 35 37 37 101 60 40 30 35 June 1897 December 1900 August 1904 June 1908 January 1912 June 1899 September 1902 May 1907 January 1910 January 1913 18 18 23 13 24 24 21 33 19 12 36 42 44 46 43 42 39 56 32 36 December 1914 March 1919 July 1921 July 1924 November 1927 August 1918 .... January 1920.... May 1923 October 1 9 2 6 . . . August 1929 .... 23 10 22 27 21 35 51 28 36 40 SL March 1933 June 1938 October 1945 October 1949 May 1954 May 1937 February 1945 .. November 1948. July 1953 August 1957 .... 43 13 64 63 93 93 45 April 1958 February 1961 November 1970 March 1975 July 1980 November 1982 April 1960 .December 1969 . November 1973 . January 1980.... July 1981 December 1854 December 1858 June 1861 December 1867 December 1870 June 1857 October 1860 April 1865 June 1869 October 1873 March 1879 May 1885 April 1888 May 1891 June 1894 18 8 31 1 18 14 13 1 11 10 10 ii 16 6 16 50 80 37 i5 39 24 10£ 36 58 12 48 30 M 36 50 52 40 ii 17 40 41 34 J£ 48 15 47 34 49 32 Hi ill 47 74 18 52 64 28 Average, all cycles: 1854-1982 (30 cycles). 1854-1919 (16 cycles). 1919-1945 (6 cycles),.. 1945-1982 (8 cycles) .. 18 22 18 11 33 27 35 45 51 48 53 56 Average, peacetime cycles: 1854-1982 (25 cycles)... 1854-1919 (14 cycles)... 1919-1945 (5 cycles) 1945-1982 (6 cycles) .... 19 22 20 11 27 24 26 34 46 46 46 46 V 2 51 49 53 55 M6 47 45 44 4 NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korean war, and Vietnam war), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions. 1 29 cycles. 2 1 5 cycles. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 104 J 24 cycles. 4 13 cycles. G. Experimental Data and Analyses I IT Foreign currency per U.S. dollar Year and month Japan (Yen) 1985 Jan.. Feb.. Mar.. Apr.. May.. June. July* Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dec. 1986 Jan.. Feb.. Mar.. Apr.. >May.. June. July. Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dec. West Germany (D. mark) (Franc) United Kingdom (Pound) 3.1706 3.3025 3.2982 3.0946 3.1093 3.0636 2.9083 2.7937 2.8381 2.6446 2.5954 2.5122 9.7036 10.0933 10.0776 9.4427 9.4829 9.3414 8.8513 8.5323 8.6599 8.0641 7.9095 7.68.49 0.8872 0.9148 0.8887 0.8080 0.8011 0.7808 0.7243 0.7225 0.7330 0.7035 0.6946 0.6922 France 1985 Jan.. Feb.. Mar.. Apr.. May.. June. July. Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dec. 1986 Jan.. Feb.. Mar.. Apr.. May.. June. July. Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dec. i Ratio scale i 900 Japan (yen) 260 220 254.18 260.48 257.92 251.84 251.73 248.84 241.14 237.46 236.53 214.68 204.07 202.79 199.89 184.85 178.69 175.09 167.03 167.54 2 159.32 2.4384 2.3317 2.2752 2.2732 2.2277 2.2337 2 2.1613 7.4821 7.1575 6.9964 7.2060 7.0967 7.1208 2 6.9535 D 180 HO 9.2 V West Germany (d. mark) 2.8 2.4 0.7020 0.6994 0.6815 0.6673 0.6574 0.6629 2 0.6617 2.0 10 A France (franc) 9 8 7 6 5 0.9 0.6 0.7 v Foreign currency per U.S. dollar Year and month m TTT nr Foreign currency per U.S. dollar— Italy Canada Exchange value of the U.S. dollar1 (Lira) (Dollar) (March 1973=100) United Kingdom (pound) 0.6 O.S 2000 1800 1,948.76 2,042.00 2,078.50 1,975.89 1,984.45 1,953.92 1,900.33 1,873.51 1,903.42 1,785.43 1,753.72 1,713.50 1.3240 1.3547 1.3840 1.3658 1.3756 1.3676 1.3526 1.3575 1.3703 1.3667 1.3765 1.3954 152.83 158.43 158.14 149.56 149.92 147.71 140.94 137.55 139.14 130.71 128.08 125.80 1,663.14 1,588.21 1,548.43 1,559.45 1,528.50 1,533.10 2 1,484.82 1.4070 1.4043 1,4009 1.3879 1.3757 1.3899 2 1.3800 123.65 118.77 116.05 115.67 113.27 113.77 2 110.71 s Italy (lira) r D 1800 1400 1200 1000 800 1.8 Canada (dollar) 1.4 1.2 1.0 160 140 Exchange value of theJJ.S. dollar (index: March 1 9 7 3 - 1 0 0 ) 120 V 100 III III HI 73 HI 111 111 111 III 111 III 111 III III III 74 75 76 77 78 9 80 81 82 83 84 85 80 86 1 This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 700). z Average for July 1 through 25. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 105 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes Net contribution 1to index Basic data Series t i t l e (and unit of measure) LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). . 5. Average weekly i n i t i a l claims f o r unemployment insurance, State programs1 (thous.). . . 8. M f r s . ' new orders in 1982 d o l l a r s , consumer goods and materials industries ( b i l . d o l . ) . . 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) 12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) 20. Contracts and orders f o r plant and equipment in 1982 dollars ( b i l . d o l . ) 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967=100). . . 36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1982 d o l . , smoothed2 (ann. r a t e , b i l . d o l . ) . 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed2 (percent) . . . 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars ( b i l . dol.) 111. Change in business and consumer c r e d i t outstanding (ann. r a t e , percent) 910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (thous.) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (ann. r a t e , b i l . d o l . ) 47. I n d u s t r i a l production (index: 1977=100) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars ( m i l . d o l . ) 920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) June 1986 May 1986 Apr. 1986 Mar. 1986 Mar. to Apr. 1986 Apr. to May 1986 May to June 1986 0 .00 0.00 -0.08 . 40.7 40.7 r40.7 P40.6 . 393 374 378 378 0.14 -0.03 0.00 . 83.92 87.03 r83,67 p84.35 0.18 -0.19 0.04 50 50 55 50 0.00 0.20 -0.22 rl21.8 rl23 .1 r l 1 9 .9 p l l 9 .9 0.15 -0.37 31 .04 r31 .07 r31 .05 p32.77 0 .00 . 146.3 150.3 142.6 142.9 . r25.93 r29.67 pl2.95 NA r-0.47 r-0.59 -0.26 232,33 237 .98 2,295 .7 0 .00 0.00 0.13 0.08 -0.16 0.01 0.09 -0.40 NA 0.25 -0.05 0,13 0.22 238.46 245.30 0.15 0 ,01 0,19 2 ,328.4 r2,347 .5 p2 ,354.7 0 .45 0 .26 0.11 r3 .8 r2 .7 r8 .0 p3 .7 - 0 .06 0 .28 -0.24 r l 7 6 .0 rl78.3 rl78.1 pl78.6 99,484 r99,783 r99 ,908 p99 ,819 0.25 0.10 -0.10 r2,593.6 r2,630.0 r2,615.0 p2,603.7 0.70 -0.29 -0.28 124.4 rl25.2 rl24.7 pl24.1 0.18 -0.11 -0,17 412,062 r422,645 P 414,544 0.56 -0.43 rl62.8 rl65.3 163 .8 pl62.6 1 ,54 -0 .91 -0.73 14.3 14.4 15.2 0 .05 -0.05 -0.57 rl.53 pi.55 NA -0.53 0.26 NA r81 .7 r81 .6 p81 .4 -0.48 -0.04 -0.11 8.83 8.50 8.50 -0.19 -0.23 0.00 r339,576 r339,689 p339,622 -0.05 0.01 - 0 .01 rl5.93 pl6,13 -0.23 0.77 NA r l 3 1 .4 rl32.4 -1.35 0.76 -0.68 LAGGING INDICATORS 91, Average duration of unemployment1 14.4 (weeks) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories 1 .57 to sales in 1982 dollars ( r a t i o ) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-r83,0 actual data as a percent of trend (percent) . . 109. Average prime rate charged by banks 9.10 (percent) 101. Commercial and i n d u s t r i a l loans outstanding r340,217 in 1982 dollars ( m i l . d o l . ) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding t o personal income (percent). . . . rl5.99 930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3 rl33.2 (index: 1967-100) y J * i NA NA P131.5 1 .31 -0,11 0 .28 NA NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated. x This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement. This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018. 2 3 106 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the current business cycle. To set the current movements in historical perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods also are shown. The selected periods are superimposed to compare the current business cycle with corresponding historical patterns and to facilitate critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and severity of the indicators' current movements. 1. For most indicators, two cyclical comparison charts are shown. In the left panel, comparisons are based on reference peak levels and reference trough dates; in the right panel, comparisons are based on both the levels and the dates of the specific troughs in each indicator. (See the charts on the following pages.) The three-part code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L=leading; C=roughly coincident; Lg=lagging; and U=unclassified. This number indicates the latest month (or quarter) of data plotted. (^January) 1 " I I • ' • ' • I 'V • • • I Series number, series title I •••' •I 2. The vertical line represents trough dates: reference trough dates in the left panel and specific trough dates in the right panel. The current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so that their reference trough dates (left panel) and specific trough dates (right panel) are on this vertical line. •135 3. The horizontal line represents the level of data at reference cycle peaks (left panel) and specific cycle troughs (right panel). The current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so that their reference peak levels (left panel) and specific trough, levels (right panel) are on this horizontal line. •130 • 125 4. For most series, deviations (percent or actual differences) from the reference peak and specific trough levels are computed and plotted. For series measured in percent units (e.g., the unemployment rate), these units (actual data) are plotted rather than deviations. The deviations (if plotted) and actual data for the current cycle are shown in the tables accompanying the charts. •120 5. For series that move counter to movements in general business activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used; i.e., declines in data are plotted as upward movements, and increases in data are plotted as downward movements. 6. Several curves are shown in each chart. The heavy solid line ( • » ) describes the current cycle. The dotted line ( • • • ) represents the median pattern of the seven post-World War II cycles. The other lines represent selected business cycles. In the left panel, each line is labeled according to the year of the reference trough; in the right panel, each line is labeled according to the date of the specific trough. i i I i i i i i I i i i i i 7. These charts use the business cycle (reference) peak and trough dates designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Peaks: Nov. 1948 (IVQ 1948), July 1953 (IIQ 1953), Aug. 1957 (IIIQ 1957), Apr. 1960 (IIQ 1960), Dec. 1969 (IVQ 1969), Nov. 1973 (IVQ 1973), Jan. 1980 (IQ 1980), July 1981 (IIIQ 1981). i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i 0 +6 +12 Months from troughs Troughs: Oct. 1949 (IVQ 1949), May 1954 (IIQ 1954), Apr. 1958 (IIQ 1958), Feb. 1961 (IQ 1961), Nov. 1970 (IVQ 1970), Mar. 1975 (IQ 1975), July 1980 (IIIQ 1980), November 1982 (IVQ 1982). This scale measures time in months before ( - ) and after ( + ) reference trough dates (left panel) and specific trough dates (right panel), This scale shows deviations (percent or actual differences) from reference peak levels (left panel) and specific trough levels (right panel). This scale shows actual series units and applies only to the current business cycle (heavy solid line). 107 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued ' Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued I I I I 1 f I I U 111 I M 11 I M 11 11 11III 11 H 111111111 I M 11 11 IT I j Actual 21. Average weekly overtime hours, manufacturing I I I I I1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 11 I I1 1 1 I I1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 11 jI11 I I11 11 i l l MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH CURRENT MONTH ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR M i l l Devi Actual ations data from for specific current troughs cycle 21. Average weekly overtime hours, manufacturing SERIES 21 HOURS 4.5 4.0 32 3.2 7785 33 34 35 36 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 8/85 9/85 10/85 11/85 37 38 39 40 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 12/85 1/86 2/86 3/86 3.4 3.4 3.3 4/86 5/86 6/86 41 42 43 . V MONTHS DEVIFROM A T I O N S CURRENT MONTH ACTUAL SPEC. AND FROM DATA TROUGH YEAR 12/82 • 3.8 • 3.6 • 3.4 • 3.2 • 3.0 3.5 SERIES 21 HOURS 3.0 2.5 - J 2.0 31 32 0.9 1.0 3.2 3.3 7/85 8/85 33 34 35 36 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 9/85 10/85 11/85 12/85 37 38 39 40 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 1/86 2/86 3/86 4/86 41 42 1.1 1.0 3.4 3.3 5/86 6/86 • 2.B • - MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH 2.6 0.2 CURRENT MONTH AND ACTUAL YEAR DATA • 2.4 - J 0.0 SERIES 82 PERCENT 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing 32 80.1 7/85 33 34 35 36 80.7 80.1 79.6 80.2 8/85 9/85 10/85 11/85 37 38 39 40 80.4 80.7 79.8 79.1 12/85 1/86 2/86 3/86 41 42 43 79.5 79.2 78.6 4/86 5/86 6/86 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing Actual 20 • 85 15 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH AND FROM ACTUAL SPEC. YEAR 12/82 DATA TROUGH • 80 10 SERIES 82 PERCENT - - ii 111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 -12 -i 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 75 1 70 31 32 12.1 12.7 80.1 80.7 7/85 8/85 33 34 35 36 12.1 ' 11.6 12.2 12.4 80.1 79.6 80.2 80.4 9/85 10/85 11/85 12/85 37 38 39 40 12.7 11.8 11.1 11.5 80.7 79.8 79.1 79.5 1/86 2/86 3/86 4/86 41 42 11.2 10.6 79.2 78.6 5/86 6/86 Months from reference troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts* see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of this issue. 108 • 75 • 70 ill MM . . . llllill.Iim.il. iilllimljllllilllll -6 0 + 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 Months from specific troughs G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued H,...I.|,MM,HI.>,H.n,MM.|.M.I|M.M|U 30. Change in business inventories/1982 dollars Actual data QRTRS. FROM REF .TROUGH 5 6 7 •8 + 80 CURRENT QRTR. ACTUAL. DATA AND 30. Change in business inventories, 1982 dollars YEAR SERIES 30 ANN. RATE BIL. D O L . • 85.1 1/84 57.0 11/84 60.6 111/84 3 3.9 IV./84 10 11 12 + 70 13 . + 60 14 QRTRS. FROM + 50 SPEC' TROUGH + 40 + 30 5 6 7 8 + 20 +10 0 1/85 H/85 CII/85 IV/85 39.9 19.6 1/86 11/86 Actual 140 120 13 99.2 78.9 1 0 0 # + 4 0 90 80 #+20 70 23.2 1/85 17.4 11/85 0.7 H I / 8 5 . r 5 . 2 IV/85 39.9 J9.6 #+60 110 SERIES»' 3d ANN. RATE BIL. DOL 144.4 85.1 1/84 57.0 116.3 H/84 6 0 . 6 ]til/84 .119.9 93.2 33.9 IV/84 82.5 76.7 60.0 5 4.1 #+80 130 DEVIATIONS CURRENT QRTR. FROM ACTUAL AND IV/82 DATA YEAR 9 10 11 12 -10 23.2 17.4 0.7 -5.2 Devi- Actual ations data • from for specific current troughs cycle 60 1/86 11/86 #o 50 - 40 - 30 - 20 - 10 # -20 -20 -30 #-40 -40 -50 QRTRS. DEVIr FROM ATIONS CURRENT REF. FROM ACTUAL TROUGH 111/81 DATA -J - 6 0 50. GNP in 1982 dollars e,c,c I Devi. ations from reference peaks Actual data . current cycle • 3,700 + 10 SERIES 50 ANN. RATE BIL. DOL. 5.5 3444.7 1/84 6.8 3487.1 11/84 7.4 3507.4 111/84 7.8 3520.4 IV/84 for + 15 • 3,600 • 3,500 9 10 11 12 9.3 ,10.4 11 .0 14 12.0 12.3 •^3,300 1 ti 111 11 ii 11111111111111 i II111111111 It I I I 1.11 -6 j 3655.9 : t3 6 6 5 . 7 50. GNP in 1982 dollars 1/85 11/85 111/85 IV/85 • 3.700 t/86 1 1 / 86 SERIES 50 ANN. RATE BIL. DOL. 9.2 3444.7 1/84 10, 3487.1 11/84 11 3507.4 111/84 • 3,400 • 3,100 3547.0 3567.6 3603.8 3622.3 8.7 #-60 QRTRS/ DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 111/82 DATA YEAR +5 t 3.200 -• 0 9 10 11 12 11.6 12.4 13.1 14.2 3520.4 IV/84 3547.0 1/85 3567.6 11/85 3603.8 111/85 13 14 15 14.8 15.9 16.2 3622.3 IV/85 3655.9 1/86 3665.7 11/86 0 + 6 + 1 2 + 1 8 + 2 4 +30 +36 +41 Months from reference troughs, -I 0 11 n 111 I I 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i l1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I i l l i -6 0 + 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 Months from specific troughs. NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of this issue, 109 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Agricultural products, exports ,.,., Anticipations and intentions Consumer sentiment, index . , Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl New orders, manufacturing, 01. Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars,., Plant and equipment expenditures, D l . . Prices, manufacturing, Dl Prices, retail trade, Dl Prices, wholesale trade, Dl Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl Automobiles Imports of automobiles and parts Personal consumption expenditures Current issue Series number 604 ( ^ e numbers) Charts Tables 56 Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 12/85 58 974 975 971 100 61 970 976 978 977 972 973 22 38 38 38 24 24 38 38 38 38 38 38 65 76 76 76 67 67 76 76 76 76 76 76 11/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 5/86 5/86 11/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 20 37 37 37 '23 23 37 37 37 37 37 616 55 56 22 92 65 12/85 2/86 56 39 B Balance of payments See International transactions. Bank loans—See Business Loans. Bank rates—See Interest rates. Bank reserves Free reserves Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve.. Bonds—See Interest rates. Sorrowing—See Credit. Budget—See Government. Building See Construction. Building permits, new private housing Business equipment, industrial production Business expenditures-—See Investment, capital. Business failures, current liabilities • Business formation, index Business incorporations Business inventories—See Inventories, Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Business saving , , Canada—See International comparisons. Capacity utilization Manufacturing Materials Capital appropriations, manufacturing Backlog Newly approved Newly approved, Dl Capital equipment, producer price index Capital investment—See Investment, capital. Capital investment commitments, Cl Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars Cash flow, corporate, current dollars Civilian labor force—See also Employment. Employment , Employment as percent of population Labor force Unemployed Coincident indicators, four Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded.. Commercial and industrial loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Compensation—See also Income. Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector.. Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income ., Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector,... Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy , Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy , Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract , Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction.. Composite indexes Coincident indicators Four coinciders, index Four coinciders, rate of change Ratio to lagging indicator index Lagging indicators Six laggers, index Six laggers, rate of change Leading indicators Capital investment commitments Inventory investment and purchasing Money ant) financial flows Profitability Twelve leaders, index Twelve feaders, rate of change See notes at end of index. 110 (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Construction Building permits, new private housing Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial buildings Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private fixed investment Nonresidential, constant dollars Presidential, percent of GNP Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Housing starts Consumer finished goods, producer price index Consumer goods and materials, new orders Consumer goods, industrial production Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food 93 94 33 33 72 72 4/85 4/85 35 35 29 76 13,25 24 67 67 6/86 8/85 24 12 14 12 13 33 12,23 23 72 65 65 12/85 6/86 6/86 34 21 21 101 72 112 295 82 84 15,35 35 32 46 20 20 73 73 71 82 64 64 6/86 6/86 6/86 5/86 32 32 32 26 8/85 8/85 14 14 97 11 965 333 24 24 37 48 66 66 75 86 2/85 2/85 2/85 7/86 22 22 22 51 914 35 34 11 29 29 60 70 70 1/86 2/86 2/86 5 26 26 442 90 441 37 51 17 51 18,51 89 62 89 62,89 4/88 4/86 4/86 4/86 9 9 9 9 920 92Oc 951 940 9 10 39 36 11 23 60 5 74' 60 66 9/85 9/85 1/86 1/86 10/85 *5 5 21 101 72 112 15,35 35 32 73 73 71 6/86 6/86 '6/86 32 32 32 345 280 49 45 87 82 12/84 3/86 46 46 64 30,47 70,83 2/86 46 346 49 88 12/84 46 340 49 87 10/85 5 341 348 349 49 50 50 87 88 88 10/85 9/85 9/85 5 53 53 53 19 63 2/86 11 920 920c 940 10 39 11 60 930 930c 10 39 60 914 915 917 916 910 910c 11 11 11 11 10 39 60 60 60 60 60 60' 9/85 9/85 1/86 5 "5 9/85 9/85 5 1/86 1/86 1/86 1/86 9/85 9/85 5 5 5 5 5 Consumer sentiment, index Consumption expenditures—See Personal consumption expenditures. Contract awards, Defense Department Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Corporate bond yields Corporate profits—See Profits. Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes. Credit Borrowing, total private Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding 29 13,25 67 6/86 9 69 23 24 66 67 10/85 8/85 21 17 86 248 87 89 249 28 334 8 75 25 47 25 25 47 25 48 12,21 22 67 83 67 67 83 67 86 64 65 2/86 3/86 2/86 2/86 3/86 6/86 7/86 5/86 8/85 40 40 40 40 40 66 113 95 39 35 32 15,35 33 73 72 73 72 6/86 6/86 6/86 7/85 33 33 33 34 description (*) n 61 15 12 320 49 84,95 322 49 84 58 22 65 4/85 4/85 11/85 49 49 20 525 53 90 12/85 55 20 12,23 66 5/86 21 10 116 23 34 66 73 5/86 9/85 21 35 110 32 72 11/85 101 72 112 15t35 35 32 73 73 71 6/86 6/86 6/86 n n 32 35 73 32 72 95 39 Ill 33 15,35 33 13,32 32 73 72 12 71 6/86 6/86 6/86 ?/85 6/86 6/86 33 33 33 34 31 31 98 331 28 48 69 85 6/86 7/86 51 50 113 Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Credit outstanding, percent change Mortgage debt, net change Crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Crude materials, producer price index Series Tables 66 Net change Historical data (issue date) * pdl>e Charts Series number D Debt-See Credit. Defense and space equipment, industrial production Defense Department Gross obligations incurred Gross unpaid obligations Net outlays Personnel, civilian Personnel, military Prime contract awards Defense products Inventories, manufacturers' New orders, manufacturers' Shipments, manufacturers' Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products industries, employment Defense purchases, goods and services Defense purchases, percent of GNP Deficit—See Government. Deflators—See Price indexes. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans Deliveries, vendor performance Diffusion indexes Capital appropriations, manufacturing Coincident indicators Employees, manufacturing and trade Employees on private nonagrieultural payrolls Industrial production Industrial production, components Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Inventories, manufacturing and trade Lagging indicators Leading indicators New orders, durable goods industries New orders, durable goods industries, components New orders, manufacturing Plant and equipment expenditures Profits, manufacturing Profits, manufacturing and trade Raw industrials, spot market prices Raw industrials, spot market prices, components Sales, manufacturing and trade Selling prices, manufacturing Selling prices, retail trade Selling prices, wholesale trade Stock prices, 500 common stocks Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Disposable personal income—See income. ,. , , 55/ 54 91 8/85 517 543 580 578 577 525 53 53 54 55 55 53 90 90 91 91 91 90 11/85 12/85 12/85 5/86 10/85 12/85 55 55 56 56 56 55 559 548 588 561 570 564 565 54 53 54 54 55 55 55 91 90 91 91 91 91 91 7/85 7/85 7/85 7/85 7/85 5/86 5/86 17 15 17 15 5 43 43 39 32 33 12,21 72 64 7/85 1/86 34 17 965 951 974 963 966 37 36 38 36 37 im 11 5 37 5 962 975 952 950 964 36 38 36 36 37 971 970 960 972 967 38 38 37 38 37 973 976 978 977 968 961 38 38 38 38 3? 36 75 74 76 74 75 78 74 76 74 74 75 77 76 76 75 76 75 79 76 76 76 ?6 75 74 77 1/86 12/85 8/85 8/85 n 1/85 12/85 1/86 1/86 7/85 "i 12/85 11/85 12/85 12/85 1/86 '37 23 3? 37 25 12/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 7/85 8/85 37 37 37 37 25 5 a? 15 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Earnings—See Compensation. Employment and unemployment Civilian labor force Defense Department personnel, civilian Defense Department personnel, military Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments Rate of change Total Employees in goods-producing industries Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl ... Employment, civilian Employment, defense products industries Employment, ratio to population Help-wanled advertising in newspapers ., Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims. State unemployment insurance Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl Overtime hours, manufacturing Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age ... Participation rate, females 20 years and over Participation rate, males 20 years and over Part-time workers for economic reasons Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities . .. Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age Unemployed, females 20 years and over Unemployed, full-time workers... . Unemployed, males 20 years and over Unemployment, average duration Unemployment, civilian Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over. .. . Unemployment rate, insured Unemployment rate, total . . . .. Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Workweek, manufacturing, Dl, Equipment—See Investment, capital. Exports—See International transactions. Federal funds rate Federal Government—See Government Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from Final sales in constant dollars Financial flows, Cl Fixed investment—See Investment, capital Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product Food- See Consumer prices. Foreign trade—See International transactions. France—See International comparisons. Free reserves Goods output in constant dollars Government budget Federal expenditures Federal receipts Federal surplus or deficit State and local expenditures State and local receipts State and local surplus or deficit Surplus or deficit, total Government purchases of goods and services Federal, constant dollars Federal, current dollars Federal, percent of GNP National defense National defense, percent of GNP State and local, constant dollars State and focal, current dollars State and local, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted price index Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit Gross national product GNP, constant dollars GNP. constant dollars, differences GNP, constant dollars, percent changes GNP, current dollars GNP, current dollars, differences GNP, current dollars, percent changes GNP, ratio to money supply M l Goods output in constant dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP, constant dollars Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital. H Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanled advertising, ratio to unemployment Hours, manufacturing Average weekly hours .. Average weekly hours, components Average weekly hours, Dl . . . Average weekly overtime Current issue Series number Charts Tables 441 578 577 51 55 55 48c 48 40 974 41 963 442 570 90 46 60 5 962 21 453 452 451 448 42 446 445 447 444 91 37 44 45 43 1 39 17 17 38 14,17 36 51 55 17 16 16 12,16 36 16 51 51 51 51 17 51 51 51 51 15,18 18,51 18 18 18 12,16 961 36' 89 91 91 4/86 5/86 10/85 61* 62 76 62 74 89 91 62 61 61 61 74 61 89 89 89 89 62 89 89 89 89 62 62,89 62 62 62 61 1/86 1/86 7/85 12/85 7/85 8/85 4/86 7/85 4/86 4/86 4/86 1/85 1/85 7/85 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 7/85 77 II 74 Series description (*) 9 56 56 5 5 37 5 5 9 5 9 9 9 8/85 9/85 119 94 213 917 Historical data (issue date) 33 40 11 72 80 60 4/85 3/86 1/86 35 38 5 5/86 4/85 2/86 502 501 500 512 511 510 298 52 52 52 52 52 52 46 90 90 90 90 90 90 83 5/86 5/86 5/86 5/86 5/86 5/86 5/86 53 53 53 53 53 53 48 263 262 265 564 565 267 266 268 261 260 43 43 47 55 55 43 43 47 43 43 81 81 83 91 91 81 81 83 81 81 3/86 3/86 3/86 5/86 5/86 3/86 -3/86 3/86 3/86 3/86 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 311 68 48 30 84 70 5/86 2/86 49 28 50 50b 50c 200 200b 200c 107 49 310 217 19,40 31 20 48 40 63,80 80 80 80 80 80 71 63 84 80 2/86 2/86 2/86 2/86 2/86 2/86 2/86 2/86 5/86 3/86 38 38 38 38 38 38 30 14 38 38 46 60 16 16 61 61 4/86 4/86 1 12,16 7/85 961 21 36 16 61 77 74 61 39 40 8/85 7/85 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Housing Housing starts Housing units authorized by local building permits.. Residential GPDI, constant dollars Residential GPDI, percent of GNP Current issue Series (P^e numbers) number Charts Tables 67 67 67 83 28 29 89 249 25 13,25 25 47 310 48 345 280 49 45 87 82 Historical data (issue date) 6/86 6/86 2/86 3/86 Series description (*) 24 24 40 40 I Implicit price deflator, GNP Imports—See International transactions. Income Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Disposable personal income, constant dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dollars Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income National income . . . . . Personal income, constant dollars Personal income, current d o l l a r s . . . Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars Rate of change.. .... Total Personal income, ratio to money supply M2 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income . . . Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract, Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction. ... Incorporations, new businesses Industrial commodities, producer price index . . . Industrial production—See also International comparisons Business equipment Consumer goods . . . . Defense and space equipment.. . Durable manufactures. Nondurable manufactures Total Total, components. . . . . . Total, Dl Total, rate of change. . . . Industrials, raw, spot market prices Components Diffusion index . . Spot market index . .. Installment credit-See Credit. Insured unemployment Average weekly initial claims . .. . Average weekly initial claims, 01 Average weekly insured unemployment rate Interest, net . . . . .... Interest, net, percent of national income Interest rates Bank rates on short-term business loans . . Corporate bond yields Federal funds rate .. Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields. Prime rate charged by banks Treasury bill rate . . Treasury bond yields .. . . . Intermediate materials, producer price index International comparisons Consumer prices Canada France Italy japan United Kingdom United States West Germany Industrial production Canada France Italy Japan OECD, European countries United Kingdom United States West Germany 5/86 12/84 3/86 46 46 64 30,47 70,83 2/86 46 346 95 286 49 15,35 45 88 73 82 12/84 6/86 3/86 46 33 26 287 225 224 47 40 40 83 80 80 3/86 3/86 3/86 26 11 11 227 40 80 3/86 11 340 49 87 10/85 5 341 652 651 288 289 220 52 223 49 57 57 45 47 45 19 40 87 93 93 82 83 82 63 63 10/85 9/85 9/85 3/86 3/86 3/86 2/86 2/86 5 57 57 47 47 46 11 11 51c 51 108 282 39 14,19 31 45 '63* 71 82 11/85 2/86 6/86 3/86 '3i0i 283 284 47 45 83 82 3/86 3/86 47 47 285 348 349 47 50 50 83 88 88 3/86 9/85 9/85 47 53 53 53 13 335 19 23 48 63 65 85 2/86 6/86 7/86 11 21 51 24 67 76 75 22 65 557 54 91 73 20 63 74 20 63 47 14,20,58 63,94 78 966 "37' 75 47c 39 8/85 8/85 8/85 8/85 8/85 8/85 12 12 13 12 12 12 8/85 11/85 "\2 47 967 23 37' 28 79 75 69 1/86 1/86 25 25 5 962 45 288 289 12,16 36 18 45 47 61 74 62 82 83 1/85 1/85 4/86 3/86 3/86 8 8 8 47 47 67 116 119 118 117 109 114 115 332 35 34 34 34 34 35 34 34 48 73 73 72 73 73 73 72 73 86 12/85 9/85 9/85 9/85 9/85 6/85 9/85 9/85 7/86 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 50 733 736 737 738 732 320 735 59 59 59 59 59 49 59 96 95 96 95 95 84,95 95 6/85 6/85 6/85 6/85 6/85 4/85 6/85 60 61 61 61 60 49 61 94 723 58 726 58 94 727 58 94 728 58 94 721 58 94 722 58 94 47 14,20,58 63,94 725 58 94 10/85 10/85 10/85 10/85 10/85 10/85 8/85 10/85 59 59 59 59 58 58 12 59 See notes at end of index. 111 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources ot Series," following this index) International comparisons-Continued Stock prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany.. International transactions Balance on goods and services Balance on merchandise trade Exports, excluding military aid Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Exports ol domestic agricultural products Exports ol goods and services, constant dollars Exports ot goods and services, current dollars Exports of goods and services, excluding military Exports of nonelectrical machinery Imports, general Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Imports ot automobiles and parts,... Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services, constant dollars Imports of goods and services, current dollars Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Income on ioreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Net exports ot goods and services, constant dollars Net exports of goods and services, current dollars Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP Inventories Business inventories, change, constant dollars Business inventories, change, current dollars Business inventories, change, percent of GNP Defense products, manufacturers' Finished goods, manufacturers' Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl Manufacturing and trade, book value Manufacturing and trade, change in book value Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade, Dl Manufacturing and trade, on hand and on order, change Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers'..... Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers', change Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Ol Capital investment commitments, Cl Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private domestic investment Business inventories, change—See Inventories. Fixed investment, constant dollars Fixed investment, current dollars Nonresidents, constant dollars Nonresidents, percent of GNP Nonresidential producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars New orders, nondeiense capital goods, constant dollars New orders, nondefense capital goods, current dollars..,..,.. Plant and equipment Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Expenditures by business, constant dollars Expenditures by business, current dollars Expenditures by business, 01 Investment, foreign Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Italy—See International comparisons. Current issue Series (page n u m b e r s > number Charts Tables 747 748 59 59 742 19 745 59 59 59 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 667 622 602 618 604 256 252 668 606 612 620 616 669 257 253 614 652 651 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 93 93 92 93 92 82 82 93 92 92 93 92 93 82 82 92 93 93 743 746 59 59 Historical data (issue date) description 11/85 11/85 11/85 11/85 11/85 11/85 11/85 63 63 63 63 63 25 63 9/85 9/85 12/85 9/85 12/85 3/86 3/86 9/85 12/85 12/85 9/85 12/85 9/85 3/86 3/86 12/85 9/85 9/85 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 • 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 255 44 82 3/86 250 251 44 47 82 83 3/86 3/86 44 44 68,81 81 83 91 68 68 60 68 68 68 2/86 3/86 3/86 7/85 6/85 10/85 1/86 10/85 6/85 10/85 12/85 40, 40 40 17 17 17 5 17 17 17 37 30 26,42 245 42 247 47 559 54 65 27 77 15,27 915 11 71 27 31 26 70 27 975 38 36 13,26 68 5/86 78 27 68 6/85 6/85 38 26 97 11 965 914 9 24 24 37 11 23 66 66 75 60 66 2/85 2/85 2/85 1/86 10/85 69 24 67 8/85 243 242 86 248 42 42 25 47 81 81 67 83 3/86 3/86 2/86 3/86 40 40 40 40 88 87 89 249 241 240 25 25 25 47 42 42 67 67 67 83 81 81 2/86 2/86 2/86 3/86 3/86 3/86 40 40 40 40 40 40 27 23 66 5/86 15 24 23 66 5/86 15 20 12,23 10 23 100 24 61 24 970 38 66 66 67 67 76 5/86 5/86 5/86' 5/86 11/85 23 23 652 651 93 93 9/85 9/85 57 57 57 57 22 22 22 5 21 J Japan—See International comparisons. L Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product Labor cost per unit of output, business sector Ubor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business..: Labor force—See Employment. Lagging indicators, six Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index See notes at end of index. 112 68 63 30 30 70 70 2/86 9/85 28 28 62 62 26 30 15 29 70 70 70 4/86 4/86 1/85 28 28 28 10 39 60 9/85 9/85 1/86 'V 930 930c 952 36 74 5 Series title ' (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources ot Series," following this index) ( ? S miters) Series <P d P numumf number Charts Tables Leading indicators, twelve Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Liabilities of business failures Liquid assets, change in total Loans—See Credit. Histoneal Senes da(a description (*) (issue date) 910 910c 950 14 104 10 39 36 33 31 60 78 27 68 6/85 38 84 8 26 20 12,21 68 64 64 6/85 8/85 5/86 60 1/86 74 72 71 9/85 9/85 1/86 12/85 6/86 5 "5" 34 29 M Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers'inventories, change Materials, capacity utilization rate Materials, new orders for consumer goods and Materials prices—See Price indexes. Merchandise trade—See International transactions. Military—See Defense. Money and financial flows, Cl Money supply Liquid assets, change in total 917 104 U 17 14 15 31 71 105 31 71 85 106 102 10? 108 33 118 117 31 13,31 31 31 31 32 34 34 71 71 71 71 71 71 73 73 6/86 6/86 6/86 6/86 6/86 2/86 6/86 6/86 9/85 9/85 29 29 29 30 29 30 30 31 35 35 27 24 8 23 23 12,21 66 66 64 5/86 5/86 5/86 15 15 15 20 12,23 66 5/86 21 10 548 7 6 23 53 21 21 5/86 7/85 5/86 5/86 21 15 15 15 364 971 37 38 66 90 64 64 77 75 76 7/85 12/85 15 37 88 87 86 248 25 25 25 47 67 67 67 83 2/86 2/86 2/86 3/86 40 40 40 40 Obligations incurred, Defense Department Obligations unpaid, Defense Department OECD, European countries, industrial production Orders—See New orders and Unfilled orders. 517 543 721 53 53 58 90 90 94 11/85 12/85 10/85 55 55 58 Outlays, Defense Department 580 54 91 49 20 63 2/86 30 15 50 50 20 20 16 70 70 88 38 64 64 61 4/86 4/86 1/85 1/85 8/85 8/85 7/85 52 52 4/86 4/86 4/86 9 9 9 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 48 48 56 Money supply Ml, constant dollars Money supply M l , percent changes Money supply M2, constant dollars Money supply M2, percent changes • Ratio, GNP to money supply M l Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 Mortgage debt, net change , Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields N National defense—See Defense. National Government—See Government. National income—See Income. New orders, manufacturers' Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dollars Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Defense products Durable goods industries, constant dollars Durable goods industries, current dollars Components Diffusion index New orders, manufacturing, Dl Nonresidential fixed investment Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Structures, constant dollars Total, constant dollars Total, percent of GNP 0 Output—See also Gross national product and Industrial production. Goods output, constant dollars Labor cost per unit of Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Per hour, business sector Per hour, nonfarm business sector Ratio to capacity, manufacturing Ratio to capacity, materials Overtime hours, manufacturing • 62 62 370 358 82 84 , 2 1 P Participation rates, civilian labor force Both sexes 16-19 years of age 453 51 89 females 20 years and over Males 20 years and over. Personal consumption expenditures Automobiles Durable goods, constant dollars 452 451 51 51 89 89 55 233 Durable goods current dollars .... Nondurable goods, constant dollars Nondurable goods, current dollars Services, constant dollars Services, current dollars Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars Total, percent of GNP Personal income See Income, Personal saving Personal saving rate Petroleum and petroleum products, imports .... 22 41 65 80 Ill 41 238 41 80 81 236 239 237 231 230 235 41 41 41 41 41 47 81 81 81 80 80 83 2/86 3/86 3/86 3/86 3/86 3/86 3/86 3/86 3/86 3/86 292 293 614 46 46 56 82 83 92 5/86 5/86 12/85 28 28 14 14 5 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Plant and equipment-See also Investment, capital. Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Expenditures by business, constant dollars : Expenditures by business, current dollars Expenditures by business, Dl Population, civilian employment as percent of Price indexes Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food Deflators Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product Implicit price deflator, GNP Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Producer prices All commodities Capital equipment Crude materials Finished consumer goods Industrial commodities Intermediate materials Sensitive crude and intermediate materials Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Stock prices—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business Prices, selling Manufacturing, Dl Retail trade, Dl Wholesale trade, Df Prime contract awards. Defense Department Prime rate charged by banks Producer prices—See Price indexes. Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI Production—See Gross national product and Industrial production. Productivity Output per hour, business sector Output per hour, nonfarm business sector Profitability, Cl Profits Corporate profits after tax Constant dollars.... Current dollars With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars. . . With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars Corporate profits before tax With IVA and CCAdj With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income . Manufacturing and trade, Dl.. Manufacturing, Dl Per dollar of sales, manufacturing Profitability, Cl . . Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income .. Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj. percent of national income Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Reserves, free Residential fixed investment, constant dollars... Current issue (Page numbers) number Charts Tables Series Historical data (issue date) Series description (•) 20 10 100 61 970 90 12,23 23 24 24 38 17 66 66 67 67 76 62 5/86 5/86 5/86 5/86 11/85 4/86 21 21 23' 23 9 320 322 49 49 84,95 4/85 4/85 49 49 84 70 5/86 5/86 1/85 49 38 28 48 48 48 48 48 48 28 85 86 69 7/86 7/86 7/86 7/86 7/86 7/86 6/86 50 51 50 51 51 50 51 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 1/86 1/86 25 25 98 99 28 13,28 69 69 6/86 6/86 51 25 19 968 26 13,28 37 29 69 75 70 11/85 7/85 1/85 25 25 28 976 978 977 525 109 38 38 38 53 35 76 76 76 90 73 12/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 6/85 37 37 37 55 35 311 310 26 48 48 29 330 333 331 334 335 332 98 88 60 1/85 1/85 1/86 52 52 5 28 28 29 29 69 69 69 69 2/86 2/86 2/86 2/86 26 26 286 287 972 960 15 916 22 45 47 38 37 29 11 29 82 83 76 75 70 60 69 3/86 3/86 12/85 12/85 11/85 1/86 2/86 26 26 37 37 27 5 26 81 282 29 45 70 82 2/86 3/86 26 47 283 47 50 50 11 3/86 967 23 284 37 28 45 79 75 69 82 1/86 1/86 3/86 25 25 47 285 93 89 47 33 25 83 72 67 3/86 4/85 2/86 47 35 40 Current issue Series (paee numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (•) 249 47 83 3/86 59 54 22 22 65 65 5/86 5/86 69 57 56 973 77 59 54 24 14,22 22 38 15,27 22 22 67 65 65 76 68 65 65 8/85 10/85 10/85 12/85 10/85 5/86 5/86 17 17 17 37 17 20 20 295 298 290 292 293 46 46 46 46 46 82 83 82 82 83 5/86 5/86 3/86 5/86 5/86 26 48 48 48 48 98 99 588 28 13,28 54 69 69 91 6/86 6/86 7/85 51 25 17 967 23 37' 28 79 75 69 1/86 1/86 25 25 19 968 13,28 37 69 75 11/85 7/85 25 25 114 115 34 34 72 73 9/85 9/85 35 35 91 60 5 962 15,18 16 12,16 36 62 61 61 74 4/86 4/86 1/85 1/85 9 9 8 8 446 445 447 444 37 44 45 43 561 96 25 51 51 51 51 18,51 18 18 18 54 21 21 89 89 89 89 62,89 62 62 62 91 64 64 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 4/86 7/85 6/85 6/85 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 15 15 15 Velocity of money GNP to money supply Ml, ratio Personal income to money supply M2, ratio.. Vendor performance, slower deliveries 107 108 32 31 31 12,21 71 71 64 2/86 6/86 1/86 30 30 17 W Wages and salaries—See Compensation. West Germany—See International comparisons. Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes. Workweek, manufacturing Average weekly hours Components Diffusion index 1 12,16 36' 61 77 74 7/85 961 Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP.. Residential structures—See Housing. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Salaries—See Compensation. Sales Final sales, constant dollars Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade.. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Saving Business saving Government surplus or deficit Gross saving Personal saving Personal saving rate Selling prices—See Prices, selling Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Shipments of defense products Spot market prices, raw industrials Components Diffusion index Spot market index State and local government—See Government. Stock prices—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Surplus—See Government. Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields... 2/86 370 358 916 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) U Unemployment Duration of unemployment, average Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims for unemployment insurance Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl.. . Number unemployed Both sexes 16-19 years of age . Females 20 years and over Full-time workers Males 20 years and over Total unemployed Unemployment rates 15 weeks and over Insured unemployment Total Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products Durable goods industries Durable goods industries, change United Kingdom—See International comparisons. 213 20 20 3/86 8/85 NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index: GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. * The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears. 113 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among the series. M M " following a series title indicates monthly data; " Q " indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are referred to by number: Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Following the source for each series is an indication of the pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding Guide'1 also lists chart and table page numbers for each series. I-A. Composite Indexes 910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29f 32, 36, 99, 106,111) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 914. Composite index of capital investment commitments (includes series 12,20, 29) (M)-Source 1 (11,60) 915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M),-Source 1 (11,60) 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference Board (24,66) 12. Index of net business formation (M).-Source 1; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (12,23,65) 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (23,65) 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value (M).-Source2 (26,68) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association (33,72) 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1 (28,69) 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).-Source 3 (17,62) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks ( M ) . Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source 3 (14,17,62) 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source 3 (17,62) Composite index of money and financial flows (includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).— Source 3 (16,61) Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69) Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source 1 (1160) 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this series may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.) (28,69,79) I-B. Cyclical Indicators 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (12,16,61,77) 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (12,16,61) 24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2 (23,66) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64) 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3 (29,70) 6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64,77) 27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (23,66) 7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64) 28. New private housing units started (M).-Source 2 (25,67) 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (12,21,64) 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M)-Source 2 (13,25,67) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (23,66) 114 (18,51,62,89) 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars ( Q ) Source 1 (28,69) 917. 940. 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (13,26,68) 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (29,70) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (12,23,66) series 62, 77f 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,70) 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).-Source 3 Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26,80) (M).-Sourcel (11,60) 930. 34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (33,72) 916. 920. 33. Net change In mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M). Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (32,71) 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars ( Q ) Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories, book value (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (26,68) 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (12,21,64) 43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3 (18,62) 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (M).-Source3 (18,62) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (18,62) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-The Conference Board (16,61) 47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (M),-Source3 (17,39,61) 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (20,63) 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (M).-Source 1 (14,19,39,63) 52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M). -Source 1 (19,63) 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). -Source 1 (19,63) 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-Source 2 (22,65) 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).-Sourcel (22,65) 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).-Sourcesland2 (22,65) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (14,22,65) 58. Index of consumer sentiment <QtM).—University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (22,65) 59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M) .-Sources 1 and 2 (22,65) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued I-C. Diffusion Indexes 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1, 3, and The Conference Board (16,61) 88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment ( Q ) . Sourcel (25,67) 950. 61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business in current dollars(Q).-Source 1 (24,67) 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars ( Q ) . - S o u r e e l (25,67) Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 951. 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).~Sources 1 and 4 (15,30,70) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (17,62) Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components (M).—Source 1 (36,74) 952. 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q) — Source 3 (30,70) - Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).— Source 3 (15,18,62) Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components (M).-Sourcel (36,74) 960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about 600 companies (Q) —Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (35,75) 961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (36,74,77) 962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).-Source 1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (36,74) 963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).—Source 3 (36,74) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book value (EOM).-Source2 (27,68) 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).— Source 4 (35,73) 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source 4 (35,73) 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).—Source 1 (30,70) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (M).—Source 2 (24,67) 70. 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. 76. 77. 78. 91 (33,72) - Free reserves (M).—Source 4 94, Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (M).-Source4 (33,72) 93 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (M).—Sources 1 and 4 (15,35,73) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2 (21,64) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board (24,66) 98. Percent change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (28,69) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (13,28,69) Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) 100. New plant and equipment expenditures by business in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (24,67) Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value (EOM).—Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars (M) — Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in curBank of New York (15,35,73) rent dollars (M).-Sources 1, 4 and The Federal 102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71) Reserve Bank of New York (35,73) ind Change in total liquid assets (M).-Sources 1 and Index of industrial production, durable manufac4 (31,71) tures(M).-Source 4 (20,63) 105 Money supply M l in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 Index of industrial production, nondurable manuand 4 (31,71) factures (M).-Source4 (20,63) Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 106 and 4 (13,31,71) Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).-Source4 (22,65) 107 Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l (Q).—Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) Index of industrial production, business equipment (M).-Source4 (24,67) Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (15,27,68) Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value (EOM).—Source 2 (27,68) 108> Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source 4 (35,73) n o Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Source 4 (32,72) m Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72) Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valua- 112. Net change in business loans (M).-Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71) tion and capital consumption adjustments in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (29,69) 113, Net change in consumer installment credit (M).— Source 4 (32,72) Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing ( M ) . — Source 4 (20,64) 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source 4 (20,64) 85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4 86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) (31,71) 965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).—The Conference Board (37,75) 966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (37,75,78) 967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (37,75,79) 968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks, 42-82 industries (M).-Source 1 and Standard & Poor's Corporation (37,75) 970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries (Q).—Source 1 (38,76) 971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting ( Q ) . Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and trade-about 1,400 businessmen reporting ( Q ) Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 ( M ) . — Sources l a n d 4 (31,71) 79. 81. 964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (37,75,77) 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M).—Source4 (34,72) 115 Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) n g . Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) 117 llg ' Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The Bond Buyer (34,73) Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).— U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (34,73) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4 (34,72) 974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 115 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 976. 977. 978. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing— about 600 businessmen reporting ( Q ) . - D u n & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale t r a d e about 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade-about 400 businessmen reporting ( Q ) - D u n & Bradstreet Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) II—A. National Income and Product 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars ( Q ) Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel (42,81) income (Q).-Source 1 213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q) .-Source 1 (40,80) Business saving (Q).-Source 1 Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1 (46,83) 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Sou r e e l (44,82) (Q).—Source 1 256. 257. (44,82) (44,82) (44,82) current dollars (Q).—Source 1 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,80) 235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) (41,81) (43,81) vices in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) vices in 1982 dollars ( Q ) . - S o u r c e 1 (43,81) 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and serSource 1 services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 268. State and local government purchases of goods and 333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M). Source 3 (48,86) 334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods (M).-Source 3 (48,86) 335. Producer price index, industrial commodities (M).-Source3 (48,85) payrolls (M).-Source 3 341. (49,87) Index of real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,87) nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,87) 346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,88) 348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average first year changes (Q).-Source 3 (50,88) 280. Compensation of employees (Q) — Source 1 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) 349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average changes over life of contract (Q) .—Sou rce 3 (50,88) 283. (45,82) Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q) .-Source 1 (42,81) (48,85) Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).—Source 3 (48,86) services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Sourcel (47,83) 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption 116 processing (M).-Source 3 332. (43,81) 267. State and local government purchases of goods and Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) Gross private domestic fixed investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 331. Producer price index, crude materials for further 266. State and local government purchases of goods and 345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, 239. 242. 330. Producer price index, all commodities (M). Source 3 (48,85) (47,83) Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) Consumer price index for all urban consumers (M).—Source 3 (49,59,84,95) 322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food (M).-Source 3 (49,84) vices as a percent of gross national product (Q).— 238. 241. 320. 340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or 263. Federal Government purchases of goods and sernonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural 237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services ( Q ) . - S o u r c e 1 (43,81) Implicit price deflator for gross national product (Q). - S o u r e e l (48,84) 311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).==Source 1 (48,84) Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sourcel (41,80) Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,80) 310. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) 232. II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars (Q).~Source 1 (41,80) (46,82) 295. 223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source 1 (40,63) 231. (46,83) 298. 261. Government purchases of goods and services in lars ( Q ) . - S o u r c e 1 Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1 Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 220. National income in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) 230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dol- (46,82) (46,82) 248. 260. Government purchases of goods and services in 225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1 (40,80) Gross saving (Q).-Source 1 Personal saving (Q).-Source 1 293. 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sourcesland2 (40,80) 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1 (40,80) 290. 292. Change in business inventories as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) (30,47,70,83) Gross national product in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).Sourcel (47,83) 247. 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars 1 (19,39,40,63,80) (Q).-Sou r e e l (44,82) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 200. 289. 286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua- 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) 370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) II—C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 (18,51,62,89) tion and capital consumption adjustments (Q).— Source 1 (45,82) 441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3 (5189) 442. Civilian employment (M). (51,89) 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua- 444. tion and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) Number unemployed, males 20 years and over (M).-Source3 (51,89) 445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over 288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) (M).-Source3 Source 3 (51,89) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers ( M ) . — Source 3 (51,89) 448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source3 (51,89) 451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3 (51,89) II—D. Government Activities 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1 570. Employment, defense products industries (M).— Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,91) 577. Defense Department military personnel on active duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct Nre employment (EOM).-US. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (54,91) 47. United States, index of industrial production ( M ) . Source4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 320. United States, consumer price index for all urban consumers (M).-Source 3 (49,59,84,95) 721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (58,94) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).-Central Statistical Office (London) (58,94) 723. Canada, index of industrial production ( M ) . — Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (58,94) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production ( M ) . Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (58,94) 726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (58,94) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products ( M ) . Source 2 (54,91) 502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome) (58,94) It—E. U.S. International Transactions 510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q) Source 1 (52,90) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (M) .—Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (58,94) 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).— Source 2 (56,92) 511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).— Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) (52,90) 512. State and local government expenditures (Q).— Sourcel (52,90) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis . (56,92) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the (56,92) Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Direc- 612. General imports (M).-Source 2 torate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).— Source 2 (53,90) 557. Index of industrial production, defense and space equipment (M).—Source 4 (54,91) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value (EOM).-Source 2 (54,91) 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source2 (54,91) 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 651. Income on U.S. investme/ 1 652. Income on foreign invest (Q).—Source 1 -Source (57,93) 1 States (57,93) 667. Balance on goods and >urce 1 (57,93) 668. Exports of goods and se under U.S. military grants (( ransfers (57,93) 669. Imports of goods and i >urce 1 (57,93) II—F. International Comparisons 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 732. United Kingdom, consumer price index ( M ) . ~ Department of Employment (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 735. West Germany, consumer price index ( M ) . — Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central Statistical Office (London) (59,96) 743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Toronto Stock Exchange (Toronto) (59,96) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices ( M ) . — Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (59,96) 746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (59,96) 747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltalia (Rome) (59,96) 748. Japan, index of stock prices ( M ) - Bank of Japan (Tokyo) (59,96) Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS Penalty for Private Use $300 FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID USGPO PERMIT No. G- 26