Full text of Business Conditions Digest : July 1975

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•1975
.!#•

wmm

This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
areBarry A. Beckman-Technical supervision and
review,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-7106)
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the
list of series and sources at the back of this report.

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Rogers C. B. Morton, Secretary
James L. Pate, Assistant Secretary
for Economic Affairs

This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for National
Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor

Edgar R. Fiedler, Chairman
Department of the Treasury
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Management and Budget
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers,
Executive Office of the President
George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce
J. Cortland Peret, Federal Reserve Board
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.

ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.

Subscription price, including supplements, is $55.25 a year ($13.85 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $4.35. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),




This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor. Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.

enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Supc
tendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, W
ington, D.C. 20402.

New Features and Changes for This Issue

iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

JULY 1975
Data Through June
Series ES1 No. 75-7

1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5

PART I. CHARTS
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

A4
A5
Afi
A7

A8
A9
A1Q
All

Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services . .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
B8

Composite Indexes
NBER Short List

20
23
25
28
30
33

Selected Indicators by Timing




44
46

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

D3
D4
D5

Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components . . .
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . .

48
49
54
56
58
60

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

37
39

Actual and Potential Gross National Product . . . 61
Analytical Ratios
. 62
Diffusion Indexes
63
Rates of Change
65

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices

The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the
transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this
periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through
September 1 , 1975.

66
67
68

PART II. TABLES

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11

Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services . .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income

69
69
70
70
71
71
71
71
72
72
73

B7

Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
Fixed Capital Investment
I nventories and I nventory I nvestment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite I ndexes

74
76
77
78
79
81
83

84
84

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6

m

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6

Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

E2
E3
E4

Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components . . .
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . .

86
87
89
90
92
94

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components

95
96
97
99

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices

103
103
104

PART III. APPENDIXES

A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See December 1974 issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See November 1974 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 (See February 1975issue)
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See April 1975issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series




105
106

112
117
121

headers are invited to submit comments and
uggestions concerning this publication.
\ddress them to Feliks Tamm, Statistical
ndicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
J.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20233

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
tifftQ to tffl$# to lit*
corporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, mti
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composit/on,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
Changes in this issue are as follows:

methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may

1. The series on Real average hourly compensation of
employees, private nonfarm economy (series 746), has been
revised by the source agency beginning with the first quarter
1970. This revision reflects the recent seasonal adjustment
of the consumer price index which is used as the deflator for
this series. (See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,"
page iv of the May 1975 issue of Business Conditions Digest.)

result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
placement of

Qthw series, changes
in composition of

Further information concerning this revision may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology.
2. The Index of stock prices, West Germany (series 14.5),
has been revised in its entirety by the source agency. This
revision reflects a new weighting system and a change in the
number of stock companies quoted in the stock exchange.
Further information concerning this revision may be
obtained from Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden, West Germany.
3- Appendix C contains historical data for series 55,
55c, 58, D58, 85, 102, 103, 750, 751, 752, 781, 78lc, 782,
783, and 784•
4* Recession comparisons are shown in appendix G for
series 1, 5, 10, 18, 19, 29, 32, 41, 43, 44, 47, and 825.

The August issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST i s scheduled for
release on August 29.



in

indexes, etc*

6 BEA PROJECTS
for economic
analysis




BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST A monthly report for analyzing
economic fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together approximately 600 economic time series in a form convenient for analysts whether their approach to the study of current business conditions and prospects is the national income model, the leading indicators, anticipations
and intentions, or a combination of these. Other types of data such as foreign trade,
Federal Government activities, and international series are included to facilitate a
more complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts and tables. Appendixes provide historical data, series
descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability. A computer
tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.

DEFENSE INDICATORS A monthly report for analyzing the current and prospective impact of defense activity on the national economy.
This report brings together the principal time series on defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national economy. These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders, shipments, inventories, expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 60 time series included are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense orderproduction-delivery process. Charts and analytical tables facilitate interpretation.

LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH A report for the study of economic trends over a long span of years, 1860-1970.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive,
long-range view of the U.S. economy. It is a basic research document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together under one cover, in
meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical basis for a study of longterm economic trends. A computer tape file of the time series included in the report
is available for purchase.

COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS The
source statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by B E A in its analysis
of time series are available on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS.—Two variants of the Census computer program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations. They are particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The X - l l variant is used for adjusting monthly data and
the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.
DIFFUSION INDEX PROGRAM.—A computer program for computing diffusion indexes,
cumulated diffusion indexes, and summary measures of the properties of each index.

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS A monthly report for analyzing current economic developments.
This report provides a useful combination of current data for more than 2,500
statistical series and significant articles analyzing economic developments. These
data and analyses include such areas as the national income and product accounts,
the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment expenditures, regional
personal income, and the input-output accounts.

BUSINESS STATISTICS A biennial reference volume containing
statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.
This report provides historical data back to 1947 for nearly 2,500 time series. The
series are accompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of
compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and
addresses of organizations which provide the basic data for the series.

CHART I. NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS

*
(NOV.) (OCT.)

(JULY)IMAY)

nTTTFFTTT

m M lW i T T T T M

*
(AUG.MAPR.)
P
T

*

(DEC.) (NOV.)

(APR.)(FEB.|
P

P

I I II I IM l I I I I n I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I I MljUl

T

I I IM l I I II I I I I I

Index: 1967=100

140
130
120
110
100
90

New index of 12 leading indicators, original trend

70

180
170
160
ISO
140
130
120
110
100
90 3

New index of 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted1

70
60
50
40

J
m m iiiijjiin m

m

in m m m m

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1955 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

NOTE: Current data for these series are shown on page v i i . The old index of 12 leading indicators i s shown on page 112.
•Revised
reference turning dates. (See May 1975 BCD, page v i i . )
1
Original trend replaced by trend of deflated coincident index (series 825).




CHART II. COMPONENTS OF NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS

(NOV.) (OCT.)

(JULY)(MAY)

11111jm1111111111111111in11111111111inn1111mini11u111111u11111111111111111111unit

11111111111111111

X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars (bil. dol

35
30
CM

25 ±

20 1
15
12
10
10D. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment,
1967 dollars (bil. dol.)

VTrvb

X176D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. dol.

X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials excluding foods and feeds, smoothed1 (percent)
I
I
I

8 2

4
+30
+20
+10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
+4
+2

-2

X108. Money balance (Ml), 1967 dollars (bil. dol.

200
190

f

180

|

170
+1.5
e in total liquid assets, smoothed1 (percent)

1111111111 il 11 \\i\ 111111111111 ii 111111111 .ill 11111111111111111111111111111111111 im\ 11111111111111111
1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

NOTE: Current data for these series are shown on page v i i .
•Revised
reference turning dates. (See May 1975 BCD, page vii.)
1
Series i s a weighted 4,-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.




VI

+1.0

^

+0.5

"

TABLE I. CURRENT DATA FOR NEW COMPOSITE INDEX AND SELECTED COMPONENTS

Year
and
month

New composite
index of 12
leading
indicators,
original trend

(1967=100)

New composite
index of 12
leading
indicators,
reverse trend
adjusted1

(1967=100)

X213. New
orders, consumer
goods and
materials, 1967
dollars

(Mil.dol.)

10D. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment, 1967
dollars

(Bil.dol.)

X170D. Net
change in
inventories on
hand and on
order, 1967
dollars,
smoothed2

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

X201. Percent
change in
sensitive prices,
WPI crude
materials excluding foods
and feeds,
smoothed2

(Percent)

XI08. Money
balance (M1)
1967 dollars 3

(Bil.dol.)

X136. Percent
change in
total liquid
assets,
smoothed2

(Percent)

1973

125.0
125.7
124.5

152.4
153.6
152.7

29,039
29,531
29,694

9.13
9.06
9.37

10.70
10.84
11.32

1.12
0.95
0.90

200.8
200.4
198.8

1.07
0.99

124.1
124.9
0)126.6

152.6
154.1
156.7

29,643
30,235
29,733

9.11
9.40
10.03

11.51
13.25
17.44

1.16
1.59
2.08

198.4
199.5
200.6

0.99
1.06
1.10

July
August
September...

126.5
123.9
122.3

E>157.0
154.3
152.8

30,391
30,032
29,612

10.08
9.75
9.70

H>21.33
19.97
16.81

2.16
.85
.90

200.5
197.0
196.3

1.06
0.98
0.89

October

122.4
121.7
119.8

153.2
152.9
150.9

0)30,628
29,971
28,571

[0)10.62
10.42
9.95

16.38
17.79
18.97

.36
.27

195.3
195.8
196.0

0.79
0.71
0.72

January
February
March

117.5
117.7
119.6

148.5
149.1
152.0

27,943
27,752
30,582

9.72
10.02
9.76

13.47
6.35
0.65

4.06
4.42
4-94

193.4
192.8
192.4

0.82
0.89
0.88

April
May
June

117.4
116.5
113.7

149.7
149.0
145.8

28,029
28,787
28,299

10.14
10.39
9.79

-2.77
-2.70
0.30

H)5.46
4.02
1.61

192.1
190.8
190.7

0.91
0.93
0.90

July
August
September...

112.9
108.8
104.3

145.3
140.4
135.0

28,577
28,548
27,240

10.40
9.15
9.26

2.98
-2.06
-9.61

0.95
1.70
2.26

189.4
187.3
185.3

0.82
0.68
0.53

October
November . . .
December . . .

1OO.3
96.8
94.6

130.1
126.0
123.6

26,354
24,700
21,392

8.38
7.87
8.44

-12.32
-11.77
-12.61

1.29
0.18
-0.53

184.2
183.8
182.9

0.45
0.45
O.46

r90.7
r9O.3
r91.3
r94.4
96.5
4

118.7
rll8.6
rl20.3
rl24.8
127.9
130.7

20,576
20,913
20,494

7.14
7.07
7.02

r-17.46
r-22.08
r-26.48

-1.39
-1.70
-1.28

180.3
180.2
181.3

0.47
0.52
0.62

r22,374
r22,607
p22,833

r7.84
r7.80
P7.53

r-29.43
P-25.43
(NA)

-0.41
0.45
0.99

180.9
rl8l.9
P183.2

0.70
r0.76
pO.89

January
February
March

April
May
June

November . . .
December . . .
1974

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June

98.3

July
August
September...

October
November . . .
December . . .

NOTE: Graphs of these series are shown on pages v and vi. Historical data were shown in the May 1975 BCD (pages xx-xxii).
The old index of 12 leading indicators is shown on page 112. Series are seasonally adjusted. Current high values are indicated
by (H). The "r" indicates revised; "pI?, preliminary; "e", estimated; and "NA", not available.
•""Reverse trend adjusted index contains the same trend as the deflated coincident index (series 825).
2
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
3
Series X108 reached its current high value (200.9) in December 1972.
4
Excludes series 3, 12, and X170D for which data are not yet available.




Vll

TABLE II. SPECIFIC PEAKS AND TROUGHS FOR NEW COMPOSITE INDEX AND ITS COMPONENTS
Specific dates are listed under the reference cycle dates to which they correspond. Numbers in parentheses indicate leads ( - ) or lags (+) of specific dates in relation to reference dates.
Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning in—
Series
December 1969
New composite index of 12 leaders, original trend
New composite index of 12 leaders, reverse trend adjusted
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing . .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
12. Index of net business formation
X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars . .
10D. Contracts and orders for plant and equip., 1967 dollars. . .
29. Index of new building permits, private housing units
X170D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967
dollars, smoothed1 . .
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries
X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials
excluding foods and feeds, smoothed1
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
X108. Money balance (M1), 1967 dollars
XI36. Percent change in total liquid assets, smoothed1

Jan.
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Jan.
Feb.

April 1960
Apr.
May
Apr.
May
Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Nov.

59
59
59
59
59
59
59
58

August 1957

(-12)
(-11)
(-12)
(-11)
(-12)
(-14)
(-13)
(-17)

Sep.
Sep.
Nov.
Nov.
June
July
Nov.
Feb.

55
55
55
55
55
55
56
55

November 1948

July 1953

(-23)
(-23)
(-21)
(-21)
(-26)
(-25)
(-9)
(-30)

Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Nov.
Sep.
Jan.
Feb.
Nov.

Jan.
Jan.
Dec.
July
Jan.
June
Apr.
Oct.

53
(-4)
53
(-4)
53
(-4)
52
(-8)
52 (-10)
53
(-6)
53
(-5)
52
(-8)

48*
48*
47
46
48*
48
48
47

(-10)
(-10)
(-11)
(-28)
(-10)
(-5)
(-7)
(-13)

69
69
68
69
69
69
69
69

(-11)
(-11)
(-22)
(-8)
(-10)
(-2)
(-11)
(-10)

Aug. 69

(-4)

Apr. 59 (-12)

Sep. 56 (-11)

Feb. 53

(-5)

July 48

(-4)

June 69

(-6)

Oct. 59

Oct. 55 (-22)

July 52 (-12)

Oct. 48

(-1)

Sep.
July
Apr.
Apr.

Mar.
Jan.
May
May

Sep. 47
June 48
May 46
NA

(-14)
(-5)
(-30)

Sep.
Dec.
Feb.
Aug.

Nov.
July
July
July

69 (-3)
68 (-12)
69 (-10)
68 (-16)

(-6)

58 (-17)
59 (-9)
59 (-9)
59 (-9)

55 (-23)
56 (-13)
56 (-16)
57
(-4)

53
53
53
53

(-4)
(-6)
(-2)
(-2)

Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning in—
Series
November 1970
New composite index of 12 leaders, original trend
New composite index of 12 leaders, reverse trend adjusted
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing . .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
12. Index of net business formation
X213. Neworders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars . .
10D. Contracts and orders for plant and equip., 1967 dollars. . .
29. Index of new building permits, private housing units
X170D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967
dollars smoothed1
32. Vendor performance, percfint of companies reporting
slower deliveries
"...
X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials
1
excluding foods and feeds, smoothed
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
X108. Money balance ( M l ) , 1967 dollars
X136. Percent change in total liquid assets, smoothed1

Oct.
Mar.
Sep.
Oct.
Aug.
Nov.
Oct.
Jan.

February 1961

70 (-1)
70 (-8)
70 (-2)
70 (-1)
70
(-3)
70
(0)
70
(-1)
70 (-10)

Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Feb.
Jan.
Feb.
Nov.
Dec.

60
60
60
61
61
61
60
60

(-2)
(-2)
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(0)
(-3)
(-2)

April 1958
Feb.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.

October 1949

May 1954

58
58
58
58
58
58
58
58

(-2)
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(0)
(-3)
(-1)
(-2)

Nov.
Nov.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Oct.
Mar.
Sep.

53
53
54
54
54
53
54
53

(-6)
(-6)
(-1)
(-4)
(-2)
(-7)
(-2)
(-8)

June
June
Apr.
May
July
June
Apr.
Jan.

49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49

(-4)
(-4)
(-6)
(-5)
(-3)
(-4)
(-6)
(-9)

Feb. 70

(-9)

Feb. 61

(0)

Apr. 58

(0)

Nov. 53

(-6)

June 49

(-4)

Dec. 70

(+1)

Mar. 60 (-11)

Dec. 57

(-4)

Dec. 53

(-5)

Mar. 49

(-7)

Apr.
Oct.
June
July

Nov.
Dec.
Mar.
Dec.

(-5)
(-4)
(-1)
(-4)

Nov.
Sep.
Oct.
Dec.

(-6)
(-8)
(-7)
(-5)

June 49
June 49
Aug. 48
NA

(-4)
(-4)
(-14)

Sep.
June
Feb.
Aug.

70 (-2)
70 (-5)
70 (-9)
69 (-15)

60 (-10)
60 (-4)
60 (-8)
60 (-7)

57
57
58
57

53
53
53
53

NOTE: Specific peaks and troughs mark the dates when individual series reach their cyclical turning points, whereas reference peak and trough dates indicate the cyclical turning points in
business activity as a whole. This table is based on the revised reference turning dates. (See May 1975 BCD, page vii.)
NA = Not available. The data necessary to determine a turning point are not available.
*Not necessarily the peak but the high for the available data.
1
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2, 2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.

TABLE III. SUMMARY OF RECENT DATA FOR NEW COMPOSITE INDEX AND ITS COMPONENTS

Percent change
Unit
of
measure

Average
1974

1STG
1975

2D 0
1975

APR.
1975

MAY
1975

1973

JUNE
197b

APR.
TO
MAY
1975

MAY
TO
JUNE
1975

4THQ
TO
1ST0
1975

1ST0
TO
1975

COMPOSITE INDEXES
12 leading indicators:1
New index, original trend
New index, reverse trend adjusted .

1967=100 .
. . do

124.0
153.6

110.C
141.2

96.4
127.8

94.4
124.8

39.1
2.3
NA
?4,149 20,661 22,605
7.08
9.44
8.23
7.72
76.8
59.4
91.9
t>9.5

39.1
2.5

39.0
2.5

103.4
2?,374
7.84

104.3

126.6

90.8
119.2

96.5
127.9

98.3
130.7

2.2
2.5

1.9
2.2

-0.3
0.0
I.1*
1.0

0.3
0.5
NA

-6.6

6.2
7.2

-2.0
-0.8
-2.8
-14.4
-14.0

0.5
0.9

I N D E X COMPONENTS
1.
3.
12.
X213.
10D.
29,
X170D.
32.
X201.
19.
X108.
X136.

Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing
Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 2 ) 3
Index of net business formation
Neworders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars
Contracts and orders for plant and equip., 1967 dollars
Index of new building permits, private housing units
Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967 dollars
(smoothed4)3
Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries 3 ®
Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials
excluding foods and feeds (smoothed4)3
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks®
Money balance (Ml), 1967 dollars
Percent change in total liquid assets (smoothed4)3

Hours
Per 100 employ . .
1967=100
Mil. dof
Bil.dol
1967=100
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
Percent
.. do
1941-43=10....
Bil.dol
Percent

40.C
1.5
112.4
29,717 27,350
40.7
0.9
117.9
9.72

157.1
15.53

-2.51

1.94

107.43
198.3
0.96

66
2.53
82.84
168. E
0.73

39.7
2.4

3fl.9
3.2

105.5

102.5

-12.23 -22.01
33
0.31
69.42
1*3.6
0.45

17
-1.46

78.61

39.1
2.0
NA
22,607 22/C33
7.60
7.53
79.8
72.1
7b.6
iv A
NA
-29.43 -25.43
24

0.34
89.0 7
1P2.0
0.78

22

-0.41
R4.72
180.9
0.70

24
0.45
90.10
ldl.9
0.76

Vlll

1.0
-3.5
1.5

4.00

NA

-14.5

NA
9.4
9.0
29.3

-9.78

26
0.99
92.40
183.2
O.b9

180.6
0.54
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by ® , which appear to contain no seasonal movement.
NA=Not available.
1
2
For the latest month, new indexes are based on 9 components.
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, the signs of the changes are reversed,
4
shown for this series.
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.




-0.5
9.0

0.86
6.4
0.6
0.06

0.54
2.6
0.7

0.13

-16
-1.77
13.5
-1.6
0.09

1.80
13.0
0.8
0.24

'Differences rather than percent changes are

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.

National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons

Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1953 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.

Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for
series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or
trading days in each month. As used in
this report, the term "seasonal adjustment"
includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown
here on a seasonally adjusted basis.

MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical faGtor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the



smoothest series and 6 for the most
erratic. MCD moving averages (that is,
moving averages of the period equal to
MCD) tend to have about the same degree
of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term
moving average of a series with an MCD
of 5 will show its cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER,
aggregate
economic
activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As
a matter of general practice, neither new
reference turning dates nor the shading
for recessions will be entered on the charts
until after both the new reference peak
and the new reference trough bounding
the shaded area have been designated.
This policy is followed because of the
conceptual and empirical difficulties of
designating a current recession and the
practical difficulties of terminating the
shading of a current recession without
including part of a new expansion.
SECTION A

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.

cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories
valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is
provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and serv
ices includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section A. Other major aggregates taken from
the national income and product accounts
are described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.

Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.

Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.

Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-

Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.

Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated. The implicit price deflator (computed by dividing the current-dollar data
by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP
is also shown.
SECTION B

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a

tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this
section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 79 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.

The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists
of 26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. In addition, there are five indexes
based on leading indicators which have
been grouped by economic process. These
indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so
that its long-run trend parallels that of
the coincident index. This facilitates comparisons among the leading, coincident,

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
\s^
\.

Cyclical
Timing

Economic
Process

|

EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(13 series)

||

PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)

Ml. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)

|V. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

V

PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(14 series)

V|. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(20 series)

N.
Nv

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments

(5 series)

LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(26 series)

Job vacancies
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(13 series)




Comprehensive
production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
{2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (4 series)

Inventory investment
and purchasing

(7 series)

Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)

Investment
expenditures

(2 series)

Inventories
(2 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Flows of money
and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(5 series)

Unit labor costs
(3 series)

Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates
(3 series)

and lagging indexes and tends to shorten
the leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C

ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these
series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments. In
some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D

OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com


prehensive selection. In general, these
series reflect processes which are not
direct measures of economic activity but
which do have a significant bearing on
business conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures,
and their balance, and selected defense
activities. The receipts and expenditures
data are from the national income and
product accounts. The defense series are
only a few of the many available. For a
more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis publication.
Three other groups of series are included
in this section. The price movements
series consist of consumer and wholesale
price indexes and their major components.
The series on wages and productivity include measures of hourly earnings and
output per man-hour and also rates of
change for most of these measures. The
final group of series measures the civilian
labor force and its major components, including unemployment rates for selected
segments of the labor force.
SECTION E

ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic varia-

bles (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F

L i t . INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) as
designated by NBER.

Basic Data
f

T

Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
• i Roman number indicates latest
^ q u a r t e r for which data are
r
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.

Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points in
dicates quarterly data.

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L - l " is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.

Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted l 1 ^ , 2,
or 2y 2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)

number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ( " I " =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according
to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or



2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers within each of the
Digest's six sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Percent change

Average
1972

1973

1974

1st Q
1974

2dQ
1974

3dQ
1974

4th Q
1974

1st Q
1975

2dQ
1975

3dQ
to
4th Q
1974

4th Q
to
1st Q
1975

1st Q
to
2dQ
1975

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.

GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars . .

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol. .
do

1158.0 1294.9 1397.4 1358.8 1383.8 1416.3 1430.9 1416.6 1433.4
792.5 839.2 821.2 830.5 827.1 823.1 804.0 780.0 779.4
146.1 154.3 170.2 163.6 167.3 172.1 178.0 181.6 183.9
5/544 6/154 6/592 6/429 6/537 6/677 6/731 6/652 6/718
3/794 3/988 3/874 3/929 3/907 3/880 3/782 3/663 3/653

1.0

-1.0

-2.3
3.4
0.8
-2.5

-3.0
2.0
-1.2
-3.1

-0.3

200
205
210
215
217

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

946.5 1065.6 1142.5 1118.8 1130.2 1155.5 1165.4 1150.7
NA
944.9 1055.0 1150.5 1112.5 1134.6 1168.2 1186.9 1193.4 1220.8
802.5 903.7 979,7 950.6 966.5 993.1 1008.8 1015.5 1078.8
580.5 619.6 602.8 610.3 603.5 602.9 594.8 591.0 620.5

0.9
1.6
1.6
-1.3

-1.3
0.5
0.7
-0,6

NA
2.3
6.2
5.0

220
222
224
225

1.2
-0.1
1.3
1.0

A 2 . National and Personal Income
220.
222.
224.
225.
226.

National income, current dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars .
Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars . . .
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable pers. income, 1958 dol.

.do.
.do.
Ann. rate, dol.
do....

3/843
2/779

4/295
2/945

4/623
2/845

4/497
2/887

4/565
2/850

4/681
2/842

4/745
2/798

4/768
2/775

5/056
2/908

1.4
-1.5

0.5
-0.8

6.0
4.8

226
227

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
.do.
.do .
.do.
do
do

729.0
527.3
118.4
78.8
39.7
299.7
310.9

805.2
552.1
130.3
86.9
43.4
338.0
336.9

876.7
539.5
127.5
90.0
37.5
380.2
369.0

840.6
539.7
123.9
88.1
35.8
364.4
352.4

869.1
542.7
129.5
91.5
38.0
375.8
363.8

901.3
547.2
136.1
92.5
43.6
389.0
376.2

895.8
528.2
120.7
88,1
32.6
391.7
383.5

913.2
531.5
124.9
89.6
35.3
398.8
389.5

938.1
539,6
130.0
92.9
37.1
408.5
399.6

-0.6
-3.5
-11.3
-4.8
-25.2
0.7
1.9

1.9
0.6
3.5
1.7
8.3
1.8
1.6

2.7
1.5
4.1
3.7
5.1
2.4
2.6

230
231
232
233
234
236
237

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
do

do

179.3
116.8
41.1
75.7
54.0
8.5

209.4
136.8
47.0
89.8
57.2
15.4

209,4
149.2
52.0
97.1
46,0
14.2

210.5
145.2
51.3
93.9
48.4
16.9

211.8
149.4
52.2
97.2
48.8
13.5

205.8
150.9
51.0
99.9
46.2
8.7

209.4
151.2
53.7
97.5
40.4
17.b

163.1
1^6.9
52.8
94.2
35.3
-19.2

147.3
144.6
50.2
94.4
36.4
-33.7

1.7
0.2
5.3
-2.4
-12.6
9.1

-22.1
-2.8
-1.7
-3.4
-12.6
-37.0

-9.7
-1.6
-4.9
0.2
3.1
-14.5

240
241
242
243
244
245

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do

-6.0
72.4
78.4

3.9
100.4
96.4

2.1
140.2
138.1

11.3
131.2
119.9

-1.5
138.5
140.0

-3.1
143.6
146.7

1.9
147.5
145.7

8.8
142.2
133.4

9.2
130.9
121.7

5.0
2.7
-0.7

6.9
-3.6
-8.4

0.4
-7.9
-8.8

250
252
253

Ann.rate, bil.dol.

255.7
104.9
74.8
150.8

276.4
106.6
74.4
169.8

309.2
116.9
78.7
192,3

296.3
111.5
75.8
184.8

304.4
114.3
76.6
190.1

312.3
117.2
78.4
195.1

323.8
124.5
84.0
199,3

331.6
126.5
84.7
205.1

338,8
128.6
85.4
210.2

3.7
6.2
7.1
2.2

2.4
1.6
0,8
2.9

2.2
1.7
0.8
2.5

260
262
264
266

214.3
7.1
321.0
1.4

240.9
9.4
366.5
6.0

249.2
7.7
406.9
6.5

242.3
8.7
392.8
8.2

248.5
-1.8
402.9
15.4

259.8
5.7
413.2
3.0

246,2
18,3
418.6
-0.5

252.9
-13.4
433.2
-5.7

259.4
-13.2
445.6
-20.5

-5.2
12.6
1.3
-3.5

2.7
-31.7
3.5
-5.2

2.6
0.2
2.9
-14.8

270
271
274
275

707.1
75.9
25.9
92.2
45 6

786.0
96.1
26.1
105.1

828.8
98.4
26.4
107.7
57 5

848.3
89.9
26.3
105.6

868.2
92.1
26.6
105.8

877.7
91,6
26.8
103,4

1.1
-0.5
0.8
-2.3

-0.2
-7.3
0.7
-8.8

1.1
1.3
0.4
NA

f\C\ 1
OU . 1

Ao
A
O<£ . O

AS O
OJ , 7

875.6
84.9
27.0
94.3
68.9

885.5
86.0
27.1
NA

co -r
J£ * J

855.8
93.0
26.5
105.6
61 6

280
282
284
286
288

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

173.4
52.6

214.4
74.4

207.5
77.0

224.5
84.4

206.3
71.5

196.4
65.5

202.9
86.5

166.6
75.9

NA
114.6

3.3
32.1

-17.9
-12.3

NA
bl.O

290
292

do
do
do

23.3
102.9
-5.1

25.7
110.8
3.5

17.3
119.5
-6.3

23.9
115.8
0.4

17.1
118.6
-1.0

9.9
120.7
0.2

18.1
122.9
-24,6

21.5
125.2
-56.0

NA
82.8
127.4
1.8
NA -24,8

18.8
1.9
-31.4

,MA
1.8
NA

294
296
298

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
do

785.4
7.0
83.7
34.3
39.1

828.4
10.8
94.4
32.9
44,2

812.5
8.7
94.0
24.0
33.6

819.9
10.6
96.3
26.4
29.2

818.9
8.2
96.5
25.7
32.6

818.1
5.0
94.1
23.6
38.9

793,1
10.9
89.2
20.4
33.6

791.8
-11.7
83.8
17.3
26.7

798.2
-18.8
81.0
17.4
33.6

-3,1
5.9
-5.2
-13.6
-13.6

-0.2
-22.6
-6.1
-15.2
-20.5

0.8
-7.1
-3.3
0.6
25.8

273
246
247
248
249

.do.

61.0

57.3

56.5

56.3

56.3

56.5

57.0

57.4

58.5

0.9

0.7

1.9

263

.do.

82.1

87.0

89.5

89.7

89.5

89.4

89.3

90.2

90.9

-0.1

1.0

0.8

267

Ann.rate, bil.dol.

26.3

12.4

64.6

42.1

54.1

66.8

94.7

127.6

137.1

27.9

32.9

9.5

207

A 3 . Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
234.
236.
237.

Total, current dollars
Total, 1958 dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars
Automobiles, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, current dollars

A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
245.

Gross private domestic investment, total
Fixed investment total nonresidential
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures .
Fixed investment, producers' durable equip. .
Fixed investment, residential structures
Change in business inventories, total 2
A 5 . Foreign Trade

250. Net exports of goods and services2
252. Exports
253. Imports
A 6 . Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262.
264.
266.

Total
Federal
National defense
State and local

270.
271.
274.
275.

Final sales, durable goods
Change in business inventories, dur. goods2
Final sales, nondurable goods
Change in bus. inventories, nondur. goods2

280.
28Z
284.
286.
288.

Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj.
Net interest

do
do
do

A 7 . Final Sales and Inventories
Ann.rate, bil.dol.

do
do

A 8 . National Income Components
Ann.rate, bil.dol.

do
do
.do . .
.do..

A 9 . Saving
290. Gross saving, total
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2
A 1 0 . Real GNP ( 1 9 5 8 dollars)
273.
246.
247.
248.
249.
263.

Final sales, 1958 dollars
Change in bus. inventories, 1958 dollars2
Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars .
Fixed investment, residential struc, 1958 dol. .
Gross auto product, 1958 dollars
Federal Government purchases of goods
and services, 1958 dollars
267. State and local government purchases of
goods and services, 1958 dollars
E 1 . Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP gap (potential less actual), 1958 dol. 2




Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Percent change

Average
1973

1974

4th Q
1974

1st Q
1975

2dQ
1975

Apr.
1975

May
1975

June
1975

Apr.
to
May
1975

May
to
June
1975

4th Q
to
1st Q
1975

1st Q
to
2dQ
1975

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
12 leading indicators: 3
New index, original trend
New index, reverse trend adjusted
Old index, reverse trend adj. (810)
820. 5 coincident indicators
825. 5 coincident indicators, deflated
830. 6 lagging indicators

124.0
153.6
163.4
155.5
138.5
164.4

110.0
141.2
171.2
165.8
136.9
205.1

97.2
126.6
163.3
165.5
132.2
219.8

90.8
119.2
152.3
156.1
123.8
213.6

96.4
127.8
156.2
156.0
123.1
202.4

94.4
124.8
156.3
154.8
122.2
205.5

96.5
127.9
157.3
155.2
122.4
201.5

98.3
130.7
155.1
158.1
124.6
200.2

2.2
2.b
0.6
0.3
0.2
-l.V

1.9
2.2
-1.4
1.9
1.8
-0.6

-6.6
-5.8
-6.7
-5.7
-6.4
-2.d

6.2
7.2
2.6
-0.1
-0.6
-5.2

102.0
120.3
123.2
118,6
118.1

92.b
114.-9
133.0
125.0
110.7

85.5
108.9
124.6
122.9
100.1

81.3
103.9
111.8
115.8
90.1

MA
108.4
110.9
115.5
HA

83.3
307.5
111.9
114.9
94.C

32.9
108.8
111.7
115.7
96.0

108.8
109.1
115.9
NA

-0.5
1.2
-0.2
0.7
2.1

NA
0.0
-2.3
C.2

-4.9
-4.6
•10.3
-b.8

NA

•10.0

NA
4.3
-0.6
-0.3

4C.7

40.0

39.7

38.9

39.1

39.1

39.0

39.1

-0.3

0.3

-2.0

0.5

Per 100 employ.

3.
4.6

3.?
4.1

2.9
3.2

2.3
3.3

2.3
3.7

2.3
3.9

2.3
3.7

P.3
3.6

0.0
-0.2

0.0
-0.1

-0.6
0.1

0.0
0.4

Thousands
Per 100 employ.

240
0.9

349
1.5

457
2.4

548
3.2

538
2.3

517
2.5

490
2.5

6C2
2.0

4.1
0.0

-21.4
0.5

-19.9
-0.8

i.e

1967=100

122

106

71

71

79

0.0

11.3

-17.4

4.2

149.64 151.32 150.70 146.86 146.11 146.04 146.36 145.93
76,833 78,337 7b,320 76,768 76,417 76,349 76,439 76,464
82,443 82,347 80,821 80,9^9 80,848 80,8Q0 81,140

0.2
0.1
0.1

-0.3
0.0
0.3

-2.5
-2.0
-1.9

-0.5
-0.5
0.2

48
41
42

-1.8

-0.5

43

-1.7

-O.o

45

-0.9

40

1967-100 .
do .
. .do .
. .do .
..do.
. .do .

LEADING INDICATOR
SECTORS
813. Marginal employment adjustments . .
814. Capital investment commitments . . .
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability
817. Sensitive financial flows

.do
.do
.do
.do

.
.
.
.

iviA

810
820
82b
830
513
814
81b
816
817

B1. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg.
21. Average weekly overtime hours,
production workers, manufacturing2 .
2. Accession rate, manufacturing2
*5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted4) .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 4 ) 2

Hours

.do .

21
2

0.9

ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Job Vacancies:
46. Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments .
* 4 1 . Employees on nonagricultural payrolls .
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities . .
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 4 ) 2 .
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate (inverted 4 ) 2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(inverted 4 ) 2

Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Thousands
do

Percent .

71

4.9

5.6

6.6

8.4

8.9

8.9

9.2

8.6

-0.3

0.6

2.7

3.5

4.3

6.0

6.8

6.8

6.9

6.6

-0.1

0.3

2.3

2.7

3.4

4.8

5.7

5.6

5.8

5.7

-0.2

0.1

0.9

1.0

1.2

2.0

2.8

2.6

2.fa

3.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.8

-O.b

44

109.9

109.6

LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
over (inverted 4 ) 2

B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
1967=100

1294.9 1397.4 1430.9 1416.6 1433.4
839.2 821.
804.0 780.0 779.4
125.6 124.8 121.3 111.6 109.8

110.0

-0.3

0.4

-1.0
-3.0
-8.0

1.2
-0.1
-1.6

200
205
47

Comprehensive Income:
*52. Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction .

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

1055.0 1150.5 1186.8 1193.4 1220.8 1203.1 1214.3 1244.9
247.6 266.2 268.8 257.3 257.1 255.7 256.7 258.9

0.9
0.4

2.5
0.9

0.6
-4.3

2.3
-0.1

52
53

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, deflated

Bil.dol..,
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
Mil.dol
do

143.90
1279.6
41,943
33,477

161.04
NA 162.04 162.63
1435.8 1467.1
46,233 47,649 46,712 47,V51 48,285
30,952 31,422 30,920 31,670 31,676

0.4

NA

0.7
0.0

-3.7
1.6
2.7
1.6

2.2
3.1
1.5

56
57
54
59

1967=100
Number

117.9 112.4 105.5 102.5
27,443 26,584 25,321 24,54i

164.10
1383.2
53,786
31,655

167.26
1413.1
45,031
30,466

2.7
2.4

B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations . . .
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
8. Construction contracts, total value
*10. Contracts and orders for plant, equipment .
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing .
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense .
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings
28. New private housing units started, total . . .
*29. New building permits, private housing

1.4
0.6

103.4 104.8
26,506 26,670

44.43
171
13.54
14.06
11.53

42.03
159
12.95
12.09
10.82

36.1
141
11.39
10.95
9.86

39.16
18
12. *3
NA
10.30

38.75
189
13.01

do
do

41.22
184
12.28
10.8
10.32

Mil. sq. feet
floor space . . .
Ann. rate, thous
1967=100

10.31

10.30

10.30

85.73
2,045
157.1

72.90
1,336
91.9

57.81
1,001
69.5

46.8
995
59.4

50.74
1,060
76.8

56.90
9hO

44.79
1,129
78.6

50.54
1,070

Bil. dol
1967=100
Bil.dol

39.18

39.54

12.99

174
12.50

18,

1.1
-3.7
-0.2
-0.1
-21.3
15.2

-2.6
-3.1
0.9
-4.4
-3.8

-11.3
-12.0
-9.4

0.0

-8.9

8.2
29.1
12.6
I\A
4.5

6
8
10
11
24

-18.9
-0.6

8.3
6.5
29.3

9
28
29

-7.6
-3.2

-2.4

96
97

79.8

9.0

12.8
-5.2
1.5

109.86 129.9' 129.94 120.10 117,?3 U8.23 117.4b 117.23
36.66 50.10 50.10 48,50

-0.6

-0.2

72.1

-13.9

12
13

-14.5

ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries5 . .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5 . . .

6




Bil. dol., EOP .
do . . . .

t\|A

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Percent change

Average
1973

1974

4th Q
1974

1st Q
1975

2dQ
1975

Apr.
1975

May
1975

June
1975

Apr.
to
May
1975

4th Q
to
1st Q
1975

May
to
June
1975

1st Q
to
2dQ
1975

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
* 6 1 . Business expend., new plant and equip
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures

B4.

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

99.74

111.92

116.22

114.57 a l l 3.39

134.71 152.68

158.33

153.09

17.8
52.9

-11.4

-1

MA 151.52

4

-1.0

61

149.40

NA

-1.4

NA

-3,3

NA

69

-35,6

NA

-17.6

NA

-37 0
-64.3

-14,5
NA

245
31

Inventories and Inventory Investment

LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus.2
* 3 1 . Change, mfg. and trade inven., book value2 .
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories2
20. Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials,
supplies, book value2
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer 2 ®
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries 2 ®
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus.2 . .
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
* 7 1 . Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5 . . . .
65. Mfrs.'inven. of finished goods, book value5 .

B5.

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
Percent
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
Percent
do
Bil. dol

I. dol., EOP . . .
. . . . do

15.4
26.9

14.2
47.8

MA

-18.0

63

55

46

32

29

26

31

29

-14

-3

6.4

13.9

11.2

1.5

MA

-12.2

-10.5

NA

1.7

NA

-9.7

NA

20

78

83

75

62

56

57

54

56

-3

2

-13

-6

26

88
2.41

66
1.67

33
-1.92

17
-3.28

24
-0.96

22
-1.87

24
-0.76

26
-0.25

1.11

2
0.51

-16
-1.36

7
2.32

32
25

224.00 271.84
37.95
46.73

271.84
46.73

268.99
47.73

MA 267.49
MA
47.29

264.52
47.01

NA
NA

-1.1
-0.6

NA
NA

-1.0
2.1

NA
NA

71
65

-2

37

Prices, Costs, and Profits

LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices®

1967-100

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®

1941-43-10

173.1

219.0

194.7

181.2

181.3

186.4

184.2

173.2

-1.2

-6.0

-6.9

0.1

23

107.43

82.64

69.42

78.81

89.07

84,72

90.10

92.40

6.4

2.6

13.5

13.0

19

-21 6
-23 5

NA
NA

16
18

-1 8
-1 1
-12 7
-15 5

NA
NA
-2.6
NA
NA

22
15
17
34
35

1.6
-0,6
1.1

1.1
-0.1
0.8

55
55
58

Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes, current dol. . .
18. Corporate profits, after taxes, 1958 dollars . .
22. Ratio, profits to income originating in
corporate business2
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg. 2 . .
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

72.9
50.2

85.0
53.1

79.5
46.9

62.3
35.9

NA
MA

Percent
Cents
1967=100
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

11.2
5.0
106.1
114.5
79.0

12.1
5.6
116.1
129.0
81.3

11.1
4.9
120.8
125.5
74.0

9.3
3.8
115.8
109.6
62.5

NA
MA
112.8
MA
NA

113.7

ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities® .
55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A2 .
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods® . . .

1967=100
Percent
1967=100

125.9
0.9
129.2

154.1
1.9
153.8

165.6
0.9
166.1

168.3
0.3
168.0

170.2
0.2
169.4

169.7
0.1
168.7

LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
63. Unit labor cost, total private economy
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg

do

131.1

146.5

153.6

157.6

159.6

2 6

I 3

63

Dollars
1967=100

0.879
121.7

0.978
132.5

1.023
138.5

1.043
145.3

NA
149.4

2 0
4.9

NA

68
62

112.6

170.3
0.2
169.5

112.1

170.7
0.4
170.1

148.1

149.7

150.4

-1.0

0.4
0.1
0.5

-0.4

0.2
0.2
0.4

1.1

0.5

17.61

6.68

6.94

-2.83

8.54

85

18.83

5.47

5.70

1.70

4.85

102

10.31
15.34
11.91
14.75
19.35
28.04
NA 36.44
39.54
NA
- 2 2 . 7 3 - 2 1 . 4 3 - 2 2 . 6 3 -23.33 - 1 8 . 3 4
-2.40
NA - 2 . 9 0
-1.50
NA
89.20
NA

2.84
3.10
-0.70
1.40

2.8

B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
85. Change in money supply (M1 ) 2
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at commercial banks (M2) 2
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
banks and nonbank institutions (M3) 2
33. Change in mortgage debt2
112. Change in business loans2
*113. Change in consumer installment debt 2
110. Total private borrowing
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures ( i n v e r t e d 4 ) ® . .
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv. 4 ) 2 5 .

Ann.rate.percent.

5.96

4.66

5.25

2.42

10.96

4.19

1C.87

do

8.51

6.99

6.66

8.36

13.21

7.66

13.13

do
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do

8.50
48.01
21.00
20.06
177.64

6.56
35.73
21.97
8.41
167.65

6.89
23.33
15.18
-3.25
142.09

Mil. dol
Percent, EOP

191.55
2.27

254.43 298.03
2.80
2.80

-1,389

-1,797

-959

-60

94

17

-52

318

69

-370

-899

-154

93

8.74
7.03
7.89
6.31
5.19

10.51
7.87
9.42
6.98
6.17

9.29
7.13
9.66
6.97
6.74

6.30
5.87
9.16
6,70
6.65

5.42
5.40
9.61
6.97
6.96

5.49
5.69
9,81
7.05
6.95

5.22
5.32
9.76
7.01
6.97

5.55
5.19
9.27
6.66
6.95

-0.27
-0,37
-0.05
-0.04
0.02

0,33
-0.13
-0,49
-0.15
-0,02

-2.99
-1.46
-0.50
-0.27
-0.09

-0.88
-0,47
0,45
0.27
0.31

119
114
116
115
117

ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 2 ®
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds r a t e 2 ®
114. Treasury bill r a t e 2 ®
116. Corporate bond y i e l d s 2 ® . .
115. Treasury bond y i e l d s 2 ® ! . .
117. Municipal bond y i e l d s 2 ® . .




Percent
do

.do.
.do.
.do.

373.08
2.94

NA 372.08 357.79
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA

3.8
NA

4.60
NA
4.99
NA

3.42
4,71
37.91
0.85
—37 2

5.03
NA
1.30
NA
NA

103
33
112
113
110

NA
NA

-25.2
-0.14

NA
NA

14
39

7

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1

Series title

Unit
of
measure

Percent change

Average
1973

1974

4th Q
1974

1st Q
1975

2dQ
1975

Apr.
1975

May
1975

Apr.
to
May
1975

June
1975

May
to
June
1975

4th Q
to
1stQ
1975

1st Q
to
2dQ
1975

B. C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S - C o n .
B6. Money and C r e d i t - C o n .
LAGGING
INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt5
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .

Bil.dol., EOP .
Bil.dol

Interest Rates:
109. Average prime rate charged by banks 2 ®
*67. Bank rates on short-term business l o a n s 2 ® . . .
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ®

Percent . . .
do .
do.

144.52
106.08

152.93 152.93
125.35 133.40

152.33
131,14

NA 152.09 151.96
NA
125.41 127.21 125.27 123.74

-0.1
-1.5

NA
-1.2

-0.4
-1.7

NA
-4,4

66
72

8.02
8.30
8.19

10.80
11.28
9.55

11.00
11.64
NA

8,98
9,94
8,84

7.35
8.16
MA

7.50

7.47

7.08

-0.03

-0.39

NA

9.16

9.06

NA

-0.10

-2.02
-1.70
NA

-1.63
-1.78
NA

109
67
118

do .
1967=100
Mil. dol. . .

119
5/905
2/343
189
5/786

-193
8,166
3/186
207
8,359

-165
8,636
3,378
192
9/001

696
8,972
3,369
179
8,277

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

557
8/570
3/193
194
8/013

1/052
8/145
3/446
191
7/093

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

495
-5.0
7,9
-1.5
-11.5

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

861
1.5
-0.3
-6.8
-8.0

NA
NA
IN A
NA
NA

500
502
506
508
512

Mil. dol.
do .
do.
do .
do .
do .

4/177
568
84
-245
-1/913
-1/328

919
3,344
3/574
2,886
462
480
-903
2,148
-169
-475
-2/732 -6/573
-4,761 -7/7P5
3,071
-2/094 -4,855 -3,223

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

2,425
2,406
2,317
6,098
10,796
1,632

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

250
515
517
519
521
522

NA
NA
5.0
0.8
NA
IMA
-9.3
NA

600
601
602
264
616
621
648
625

1.5
1.6
0.1
1.1

211
781
781
750

D. O T H E R K E Y I N D I C A T O R S
D 1 . Foreign Trade
500.
502.
506.
508.
512.

Merchandise trade balance2
Exports, excluding military aid
Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles.
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
General imports

Mil. dol.

D 2 . U.S. Balance of Payments
250.
515.
517.
519.
521.
522.

Balance on goods and services2
Bal. on goods, services, and remittances2 . . .
Balance on current account2
Balance on curr. acct. and long-term capital 2
Net liquidity balance2
Official reserve transactions balance2
D3. Federal Government Activities

600.
601.
602.
264.
616.
621.
648.
625.

Federal surplus or deficit, NIA 2
Federal receipts, NIA
Federal expenditures, NIA
National defense purchases
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
Mil. dol
do
Bil.dol
Mil. dol

-5.6
258.5
264.2
74.4
7/085
1/571
1.71
2/954

-8,1
291.1
299.1
78.7
7/753
1/741
1,90
3/457

-24,5
294,7
319,3
84,0
7/990
1/742
1.81
3/490

-54.4
284.1
338.5
84.7
7,780
1/761
1.83
3,499

N'A
NA
355 3
85 4
NA
NA
1.66
NA

7/952
1/425
1,64
4/122

8/235
1/850
1.66
3/926

NA
NA
1.68
NA

3.6
29,8
1.2
-4.8

NA
NA
1.2
NA

-29 9
-3 6
6 0
0 8
-2,6
1.1
1.1
0.3

1958=100 .
1967=100 .
Percent . . .
1967=100 .

149.6
133.1
0.7
134.7

167.0
147.7
1.0
160.1

174,7
154.2
0.9
171.2

178.0
157.0
0.5
171.2

180 6
159.5
0.6
173.0

158.6
0.6
172.1

159.3
0,4
173.2

160.6
0.8
173.7

0,4
-0.2
0.6

0.8
0.4
0.3

1.9
1.8
-0.4
0.0

D4. Price Movements
211. Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product . . .
781. Consumer prices, all i t e m s ® .
781c.Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 . . .
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities®
D5. Wages and Productivity
740. Average hourly earnings, production workers
in private nonfarm economy
741. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers in private nonfarm economy
859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings,
nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers
745. Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm . .
746. Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy .
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . .

do .

146.6

158.3

164.0

167.3

170.1

168.8

169.8

171.6

0.6

1.1

2.0

1.7

740

do .

110.1

107.2

106.4

106.4

106.6

106.3

106.6

106.9

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.2

741

95.73
148,8
111.8
115,2
113,7

90.97
161.9
109.6
112.1
110.6

89.30
167.7
108.7
110,8
109.4

88.28
171.6
109.2
110.8
108.9

90.06
174 5
109 4
111 3
109 8

87.46

91.54

91.18

4.7

-0.4

-1.7
2 3
0 5
0,0
-0,5

2.0
1.7
0.2
0.5
0.8

859
745
746
770
858

88/716 91,011 91,785 91,810 92,514 92/262 92,940 92/340
84/410 85,936 85,732 84,146 8 4 , 3 1 1 84/086 64,402 84,444
8,538
4/306
5,076
8/176
7,664
8,203
6,053
7/896

0.7
0.4
-4.4

-0.6
0.0
7.5

0.0
-1.8
-26.6

0.8
0.2
-7.0

841
842
843

1967 dol. .
1967=100 .
do .
do.
do .

D6. Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components
841. Total civilian labor force
842. Total civilian employment
843. Number of persons unemployed (inverted)4 .

Thousands
do .
do .

E. A N A L Y T I C A L M E A S U R E S
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade .
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries
853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
persons unemployed
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2 @ . .

Percent .
Ratio . .

83 0
1.46

79.0
1.51

75.7
1.60

68.2
1.68

66 5
NA

1.65

1.63

NA

-1.2

NA

-7 5
5.0

-1.7
NA

850
851

do...
1967=100...

2.87
93.2

3.31
100.8

3.42
103,2

3.47
100.4

NA
95.1

3.29
97.1

3.44
94.9

NA
93.3

4.6
-2.3

NA
-1.7

1.5
-2.7

NA
-5.3

852
853

0.082

0.079

0.086

0.075

0.106

-12,8

41.3

854

0.844
5.8

0.634
6.2

0.429
6.0

0.277
6.1

0.268

-35,4
0.1

-3.2
0.2

860
657

Ratio
do
Percent

0.259

0,248

0.298

-4.2

20.2

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated b y ® , which appear to contain no seasonal movement. 'Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA = not available, a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period. S/A=seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are
those published by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II.
differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
For the latest month, new indexes are based on 9 components, old index on 8.
*Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.

8




Section

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart

(July)
P

Al

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

16001500140013001200-

s_

11001000900-

in current dollars, 0 (am. rate, Ml. dot.

800 -

r

700-

205. GNP in 1958 dollars, tt(m rate, ML dol.)

600-

211. Implicit price

215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, Q (am. rate, thous. dot.)
4.54.03.53.0-

217. Per capita GUP in 1958 dollars, ft
(am. rate, M I S . eei.)

2.5-

1953 54

55

56

57

58

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

 JULY 1975


59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A2

NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

(May) (Feb.)
P T

National income, current dollars,

224. Disposable personal income;
current dollars, 0
ann. rate, Ml. dot.
225. Disposable personal
dollars, Q (ann. rate,

226. Per capita disposable personal income, current
(ann. rate, Uious. dol.)

227. Per capita
1958 dollars, Q (ann.

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

I income,
thous. dol.)

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

10




JULY 1975

ItCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A3

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

Durable goods, total excluding automobiles,

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

KCII

 JULY 1975


11

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A4

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

T

T

P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P

T

fill

•

fffpf

nisi

Hill HISS?
•••

; :

ii

T

liim
Amual rate, billion dollars (can errt)

IStfn;

••••••••

:;

:

:

i f c ^ ^ :

•

:: :

240-1
:

]g^f:~* * * v

:

220-

ftfififjll

lit

200-

omestic iavestme
. ;.:; ; ^ |

•i •I

Iliiil

180,>3^"'

/ •

\

160-

240. Total, B

140120180160140120-

241. Nonresidential fixed investment, total, Q

242. Nonresidential structures, Q

243. Producers' durable equipment, I

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

12




JULY

1975

ItCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A5

FOREIGN TRADE

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

miiii

250. Net exports of goods and services, 0

252. Exports of goods and services, Q

253. Imports of goods and services, Q

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

ItCIt

 JULY 1975


13

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A6

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

266. State and local governments, Q

mm
1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

14




JULY 1975

ItCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A7

FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

270. Final sales, durable goods, Q

271. Change in business inventories, durable goods, Q

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

YAW

 JULY 1975


15

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A8

NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

284. Rental income of persons, Q

Corporate profits and inventory valuaUflD_ailillSlmfillL_Q

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

16




JULY 1975

ItCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A9

SAVING

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

294. Undistributed corporate profits plus

296. Capital consumption allowances, Q

298. Government surplus or deficit,

1953 54

55

56

57

53

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

 JULY 1975


17

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A10

REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

,m gmjjgi

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

. .

. HISS .

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T
• olSIII

248. Fixed investment, residential structures,

1953 54

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 70, and 72.

18




JULY 1975

ItCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A l l

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Gross National Product Shares
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

Percent

70-i

230A. Persona! consumption expenditures as percent of GNP, Q
65-

60 J

20-i

266A. State and local government
purchases of goods and services

Federal Government paxhases
1A

Fixed investment, nonresidgntial

15-

10-

i

244A. Fixed investment, residential structures as percent of GNP, 0
5-

0J
250A. Net exports of goods and services as percent of GNP, Q

245A. Change in business inventories as percent of GNP, 0

National Income Shares

80-1

of employees as percent of national income, 0
75-

70-

65J

286A. Corporate profits and
adjustment as percent

10-

5-

0J
1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

BCII

 JULY 1975


19

Section

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart Bl

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

i
Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
A

Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees—inverted scale)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.




20

JULY 1975

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart Bl

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

wanted advertising (index: 1967-100)

in nonagncultural establishments (ann. rate, bil

Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)

42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities (millions)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.

ItCIt

 JULY 1975


21

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart Bl

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

3-

43. Unemployment rate, total (percent—inverted scale)
7£

45678910-1

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)

40. Unemployment rate, married males
i%cert--ii»erted scale)

Lagging Indicators
Long-Duration Unemployment

*44. Uno^jloyment rate, persons unemployed IS weeks and over

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

22




JULY 1975

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B2

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, A N D TRADE

Roughly Coincident Indicators

ENP in esrrent dollars, Q (ani. rate, «!.Art.

1953 54

71

72

73

74 1975

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

 JULY 1975


23

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B2

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
T

1953

54

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

24




JULY 1975

lt€l>

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B3

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Nov.)
T

mil

13. New business incorporations (thousands)

V f l | r ^

«§«§§

: :

:•••

tm
ilH

mi

lit

8. Construction contracts, total value (index: 1967=100;
j § | D nmriitg avg.—S-terni)*
-

Illii

11

1

,\

o

WL
Wm

225200175- (
150125 100-

*\l

18-i

16141210-

*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment (Ml. dot.)

86-

4-

2-J
1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.

I JULY 1975


25

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B3

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)

(May) (Feb.)
P T

18161412-

IT

11. New capital appropriations,

10-

6-1
141210-

6-

4-1
908070605040302.42.22.01.81.61.41.2-

Mew private housing units started, total (ann. rate, millions;
MCD moving avg.--4-term)
-—-*--

1.0-

0.8 J
200180160 140120100-

buildmg permits, private bousing units (index: 1967*100)

8060-

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 78.

26




JULY 1975

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

B3

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

Backlog of Investment Commitments

96. Mwtfacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Ml. dol

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, 0 (oil. dol)1

Lagging Indicators
140Investment Expenditures

120100-

*61. Business expenditures, new plant and

8060180"
160140120100-

80-

69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction
expenditures (ann. rate, bit. dol.)

60-

40-

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.

 JULY 1975


27

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B4

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

•lip;-

""•MB" '••:

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

•HP'"""

9

Change in business inventories, Q
(ann. rate, bil. del.)

31. Chanee in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
rate, MI. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

materials, percent of companies reporting higher

in hook value, manufacturers' inventories of materials and
bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

materials, percent of companies

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.

28




JULY 1975

IICII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B4

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(July) (Apr.)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

T

100-

performance, percent of companies reporting slower
75-

^4

50-

25-

0-

--Itiiiiii-,

91

Hi

+5+4-

Change in unfilled orders, durable goods Industrie^
:.:

+3-

SJStiSss»tf•••:

+2+1-

0-1-

%

-2-3-4-5-

Lagging Indicators
•iiiiitifc

-fjlljf.

300-

l

260-

*n.

[ value, manufacturing and trade inventories

.ilium
Jllttll

iiliill:,

100J

JHIijiil:::

1953 54

55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74

1975

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.

BCII

JULY 1975



29

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B5

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

2601
240220 200180160140120-

materials prices (index: 1967=10)

100120100-

*19. Stock

80-

60100-1
'Pis ¥^-

90-

§§w&

80-

%$?/&

70-

Profits and Profit Margins

60-

Corporate profits after toes, B ( m rate, bil. dol.)
50-

*I

H i Current dollaii

40-

30-

unfits (after taxes) to income originating
* * corporate bustoss, 0 (pereeit)

dollar of sales, nunrfactaring, Q (cents)

mi.

if}7. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1967=101)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80.

30




JULY 1975

IICII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.

B5

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars,
Q (ann. rate, Ml. del.)

35. Net cask flow, corporate, 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
190180 170160150140-

55, Wholesale prices/industrial commodities (index: 1967=100)

130-

i mm

120110-

58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1967=100) J I B

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.

BCII

 JULY 1975


31

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B5

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.

Lagging Indicators
(July)

(Nov.)
P

(Aug.)

(Nov.)
T

63. lndexT Q (1967

63c. Change over 1-quarter spans, 0 (ann. rate,

(curr. dol.) per unit of real corporate product, Q (dollars)

*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.


32


JULY 1975

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B6

MONEY AND CREDIT

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

IRS #§§§§?

:

lit J§|§§

.

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

supply (Ml) (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.

i£. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial

Tillrt^;^

in money supply plus time deposits at banks and
institutions (M3) (ann. rale, percent; moving avg.-6-

33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol

112. Change in business loans (ann. rate,_bLJoLi
1
MCD moving avg.--6-term)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

yen

 JULY 1975


33

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B6

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, ML M )

rate, 30 days and over, total
Iment leans (percent-inverted scale)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

34




JULY 1975

IU II

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B6

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

93. Free reserves (lit. dol.—inverted scale)

117. Municipal bbrtfl yifelfls (percent)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

BCII

 JULY 1975


35

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B6

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Lagging Indicators
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

180-1
160140120100Consumer installment debt (oil. dol

8016014012010080-

Commercial mi industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial hanks
(hil. dol.

60-

11109 -

•

87-

j p r a g e prime rate charged by banks (percent)

613121110- •

9- '

*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)

876-

1098-

I Mortgage yields, residential (percent)

76554

36

55

56 57 58




59 60

61 62 63

64

65 66 67

68 69 70 71

72 73 74 1975

JULY 1975

Ittll

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B7

COMPOSITE INDEXES

Coincident and Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

|ix Jailing i « i c | | (series « / ( J H , i y

IS

Imm

1943 49

•

50

51 52

I

53

54

55

56

57

58 59

60

61 62

63 64

65 66

67

68 69

70

71

72

73 74 1975

NOTE: The new index of 12 leading indicators is shown on pages v and vii; the old leading index is shown on page 112.
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags H in months from reference turning dates.

ItCII

 JULY 1975


37

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B7

COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.

Leading Indicator Subgroups
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

ami purchasing (series 23,25,31,37)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61 62

63 64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

38




JULY 1975

ItCIt

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B 8

N B E R SHORT LIST

Selected Indicators by Timing

Leading Indicators

Net business formation (index: 1967=100)

6. New orders, durable goods industries (bil

* » . Contracts and orders, plant
and equipwmt (bil. dol.)

1948 49

50

51

52

53 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61 62

63 64

65

66 67

68 69

70

71

72

73 74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 77.

ItCII

 JULY 1975


39

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B8

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

* | 1 . Change | took value, manufacturing and trafr inventories
(ann. rate, fail. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6 term)

-30

"948 m

50

51

b2

S3

54

55

56

57

58

59

-0

61 62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

J

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.

40




JULY 1975

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B8

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Selected Indicators by Timing

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1

*113. Chance in consumer installment debt (ann. rate

Roughly Coincident Indicators

on nonagncultural payrolls (millions)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61 62

63 64

65

66 67

68

69

70

71

72

73 74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 79, 80, and 81

ItCIt

 JULY 1975


41

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B8

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1

1300120011001000900-

"200. GUP in current dollars, Q (arm. r a t e j i l

1
GNP in 1958 dollars, Q
ann. rate, bil. dol.)

ial production (Index: 1967=100)

14001300120011001000900-

income (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

Manufacturing and trade sales

of retail stores (bil. dol.)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61 62

63 64

65

66

67

68 69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

42




JULY 1975

ItCIt

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B8

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Selected Indicators by Timing

Lagging Indicators
(Nov.; (Oct
P
T

IS weeks and over (percent-inverted

1. Business expeffllitures, new plant and equipment

I

value, m a n u r i n g and
inventories (bil. dol.)

output, manufacturing (index: 1987=100)

cial and industrial loans outstanding,
commercial banks (bil

business loans, Q (percent)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61 62

63 64

65

66 67

68

69

70

71

72

73 74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 78, 79, 80, and 82.

ItCII

 JULY 1975


43

Chart

AGGREGATE SERIES

Cl

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Nov.)
T

for new plant and equipment, all industries, 8

(a) Actual expenditures (ann. rate, Mi.

(b) Second anticipations as percent of

(c) First anticipations as percent of

1957

58

59




44

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

1976

JULY 1975

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart

AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.

Cl

(Nov.)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
T

410. Manufacturers' sales,

412. Manufacturers'inventories,
total book value, Q (bil.

414. Condition of manufacturers'inventories:
percent considered high less percent #

416. Adequacy of manufacturers'capacity
considered inadequate less percent
^
. ovroccivo fl

435. Index of consumer sentiment, Q (1st

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

1976

Current data for these series are shown on page 84.


JULY 1975


45

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart C 2

DIFFUSION INDEXES

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

0S1. Bisiaess etpetditures for new plant mt

D440. Hew orders, iBaaufacturine (4-Q span)

1957

58

59

60

61

74

75

1976

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84 and 85.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

46




JULY 1975

ItCII

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart C2

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
T

D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

0464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q

D46S. Sel ing prices, retail trade (4-1 span)1

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

75

1976

Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Oun & Bradstreet, Inc.

ItCII

 JULY 1975


47

Chart Dl

FOREIGN TRADE

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

1953 54

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 86.

48




JULY 1975

IICII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P

T

P

T

all m

S lSfll

:

it. iiP.
warn.
•i
iii
lift
Ip

258,

mm
HSfl

lit

IB• I -

IP

iH'..
Si

Balance on

•

PPtS

limit'
ail
517. Ba

Bt^S

519. Ba
pupil!;
l i Mi
IIWliMi

IH
liUpi

•mB
Illi

n
HI

1

ill i l l
Illim
mi
HSi

1
111

ism

1953 54 55 56 57 58

59

60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 87.

ItCII

 JULY 1975


49

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

160150140130120110100908070605040-

to ill foreigners, outstanding at end of period

30-

S32. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities
foreign official agencies, outstanding

20-

10J

25-

534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end

20-

15-

10-

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 87. End-of-year figures are used prior to 1960.

50




JULY 1975

ItCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

Goods and Services Movements,
[Except Transfers Under Military Grants

E 3 b c e s s of receipts
• E x c e s s of payments

Goods and services-

250. Balance on pods and services

Investmiit income, military sales and
expeNfRifss, and otter servfces—

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

<>2

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior tc 1960.

BCII

 JULY 1975


51

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

investment Income. Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Service:

E3Excess i f receipts (inflow)
Excess i f payments (outflow)

32-

28-

24-

20-

16-

12-

542. Income on U.S. investments abroad

Travel545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
4WSISI.

0J

i isfiifUl

544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sales amJ expenditures—
. U.S. military expenditures abroad

4-

st

o-J

546. Military sales to foreigners
16-1

12-

8-

40J
1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

52




JULY 1975

IICII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

+12+8-

Exms of pajimts (wtfftw)

+4-

0-

investments in the U.S.

-4+8+40-

Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
-4-

and capital transactions, net

0-4-

Si

-8-

other capital transactions, net

-4-8-12-

S
-16-20-24-

-28-32 J
1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

ItCII

 JULY 1975


53

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D3

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

and product accounts, 6 (ann. rate, bil. dol

Federal n f f p i n s , national income ant product accounts, 11 (an. rate,

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

54




JULY 1975

BCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D3

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

obligations, total
moving aYg.--6-tena)

Defetse Department obligations, procurement
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-terra

defense prodacts industries
MCD moving avg.—6-ten)

m

lbkut

MAM

WH OflKfS,

protects « l . « . ; KB

awanlsinU.S.
KCD moving avg.~S-tera)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

B C D JULY 1975



55

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D4

PRICE MOVEMENTS

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

Hi

index, gross prate pralKt
to 1965), Q (index: 1958=100)

price index, all itens (seasonally adj.)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

56




JULY 1975

BCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D4

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

1

One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6 month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

ItCII

 JULY 1975


57

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D5

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

Average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfana economy (annual data prior to 1964)--

740. Curnwt dollar earnings (index: 1967=100
741. Real earnings (index

spendable avg. weekly earnings
or nonsupervisory workers (1967 dollars)

Average hourly compensation, all employees
private noBfars economy
745. torrent dollar compensation, Q

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.

58




JULY 1975

ItCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D5

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

lit

if
§ § § dHMgeiaavg.
Hill
private

Six-month spans (ann.
Change in avg.
private
745c. Current dollar compensation
une-quarter span (ann. rate)

w - p f l 0 r span (ann. rate)

748. First year avg. changes, Q (ann. rate)
Average changes over life
770c. Change in output per man-hour

i

* Four-qaarter span

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.2One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.

IP JULY 1975


59

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D6

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

1953 54

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.

60




JULY 1975

IICII

Chart El

(July)
P

ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

940 -

d

920900 880860 840 820800780 760740720700680660-

206. Potential GNP1

640620-

205. Actual GHP

600 580560540520500480460440420400-

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 95.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 2d quarter 1975. See special note on page 95.

ItCII

 JULY 1975


61

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart E2

ANALYTICAL RATIOS

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

to sales, manyfacturine and trade (ratio)

Ratio, BBfiiieo orders to snipisents
tetmrs' dsrahle goods industries (ratio)

of bisiness e p i n w t to

^'WMfcMm^fcUKfc\ ^4U>ftiV \tk Hl^^tMM^^l^\tk

MftVAtfkMMl

advertising to

Mo)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 96.

62




JULY 1975

ItCII

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart E3

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

workers, ^mfacturtag—21 Mstries

New orders, teable goods industries--35 industries (9-mo. span— r 1-mo.

mmtmm
appropriations--^ industries (3-B s p a n — , 1-B

, (Krcert repiing Wgher profits-about 1,000

stocks-6&-82 industries (9-mo. s p a n — T 1

raaudrijii
prices—13 hAsfrial Materials (9-m. spaa—, 1

I7an«s (ptfttut leclinlit; 9HM.

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.

ItCII

 JULY 1975


63

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart E3

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

I payrolls-3fl industries (&-rao. span—, 1-mo.

production-24 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo.

manufactured goods--22 industries (6-mo. s p a n — J - m o .

Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. s p a n — J - m o .

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 98.

64




JULY 1975

BCII

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart E5

RATES OF CHANGE

(Nov.)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
T

205. ( 0 GHP in constant dollars (1-Q span)

821. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43,47,52,

48. Man-hoars ia BonagricaltDral establJshfflents

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

74

75

1976

To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide," pp. 117-120.

BCI»

 JULY 1975


65

Section

F
Chart

(July)
P

Fl

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

CONSUMER PRICES

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Consumer prices—

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 103.

66




JULY 1975

KCII

Section F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart F2

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

Industrial production

^r*w* > / > '

120 10080-

60-

40-

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.

licit

 JULY 1975


67

Section F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart F3

STOCK PRICES

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

Stock prices-

1953 54

55

56

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

19. United States.

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 104.




68

JULY 1975

ItCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

£ Q GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

Year
and
quarter

a. Total

b. Difference

210. Implicit price deflator

205. Constant (1958) dollars

200. Current dollars

b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

(Index:
1958=100)

(Index:
1958=100)

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

+12.2
+10.5
+9.5
+12.7

770.9
786.6
798.1
814.2

+11.8
+15.7
+11.5
+16.1

+6.4
+8.4
+6.0
+8.3

144.6
145.3
146.5
148.0

+1.9
+0.7
+1.2
+1.5

+5.5
+1.9
+3.3
+4.1

1,344.0

+44.2
+29.0
+31.0
+35.1

+15.5
+9.6
+10.1
+11.2

832.8
837.4
840.8
845.7

+18.6
+4.6
+3.4
+4.9

+9.5
+2.2
+1.6
+2.3

150.0
152.6
155.7
158.9

+2.0
+2.6
+3.1
+3.2

+5.5
+7.3
+8.3
+8.6

1,358.8
1,383.8
1,416.3
1,430.9

+14.8
+25.0
+32.5
+14.6

+4.5
+7.6
+9.7
+4.2

830.5
827.1
823.1
804.0

-15.2
-3.4
-4.0
-19.1

-7.0
-1.6
-1.9
-9.0

163.6
167.3
172.1
178.0

+4.7
+3.7
+4.8
+5.9

+12.3
+9.4
+11.9
+14.4

1,416.6
pl,433.4

-14.3
p+16.8

-3.9
p+4.8

780.0

P779.4

-24.0
p-0.6

-11.4
P-0.3

181.6
P183.9

+3.6
P+2.3

+8.4
P+5.1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. doL)

1,115.0
1,143.0
1,169.3
1,204.7

+31.8
+28.0
+26.3
+35.4

1,248.9
1,277.9
1,308.9

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

•••GROSS NATIONAL
• • • PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter

215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars

217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars

Q | NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in current dollars

222. Personal
income in current dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate*
bil.dol.)

225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

913.3
930.9
950.3
985.0

790.0
807.2
838.1

566.2
573.6
581.9
600.1

3,720
3,787
3,861
4,000

2,719
2,749
2,784
2,864

(Ann. rate, dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

3,702
3,770

774.7

5,354
5,478
5,593
5,750

r3,8l7
3,886

912.3
932.5
954.3
987.0

5,951
6,079
r6,214
r6,368

r3,968
r3,983
3,992
4,007

1,027.6
1,051.2
1,077.3
1,106.3

1,013.6
1,039.2
1,068.0
1,099.3

869.5
892.1
913.9
939.4

615.1
618.2
621.8
622.9

4,143
4,244
4,339
4,452

2,931
2,941
2,952
2,952

r6,429
r6,537
r6,677
r6,731

3,929
3,907
3,880
3,782

1,118.8
1,130.2
1,155.5
1,165.4

1,112.5
1,134.6
1,^68.2
1,186.9

950.6
966.5
993.1
1,008.8

610.3
603.5
602.9
594.8

4,497
4,565
4,681
4,745

2,887
2,850
2,842
2,798

6,652
p6,7l8

3,663
P3,653

1,150.7
(NA)

1,193.4
pi,220.8

1,015.5
pi,078.8

591.0
p620.5

4,768
P5,O56

2,775
p2,908

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; " p ' \ preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,10, and 65.

ItCIt

JULY 1975



69

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

^ P E R S O N A L CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

Year
and
quarter

230. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars

232. Durable
goods, total, in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

234. Automobiles
in current dollars

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

237. Services in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

701.5
720.6
736.8
757.2

512.8
523.2
531.2
542.2

112.1
116.2
121.2
124.3

75.5
77.9
79.4
82.4

36.6
38.3
41.8

781.7
799.0
816.3
823.9

552.9
553.7
555.4
546.3

132.4
132.1
132.4
124.3

840.6
869.1
901.3
895.8

539.7
542.7
547.2
528.2

913.2
P938.1

531.5
P539.6

a.9

288.4
297.4
302.0
310.9

301.0
307.0
313.6
322.0

87.0
87.3
87.0
86.3

45.4
44.8
45.4
38.0

323.3
332.7
343.8
352.1

325.9
334.2
340.1
347.4

123.9
129.5
136.1
120.7

88.1
91.5
92.5
88.1

35.8
38.0
43.6
32.6

364.4
375.8
389.0
391.7

352.4
363.8
376.2
383.5

124.9
pl30.0

89.6
P92.9

35.3
P37.1

398.8
P408.5

389.5
P399.6

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

^ J G R O S S PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS

Year
and
quarter

240. Total

241. Nonresidential
fixed investment

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann*rate,
bil. dol.)

242. Nonresidential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

243. Producers'
durable equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

245. Change in
business inventories

244. Residential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

169.4
175.5
182.1
190.2

112.7
114.7
117.5
122.5

40.7
41.0
40.6
42.2

72.0
73.7
76.8
80.3

51.8
52.9
54.5
56.7

+5.0
+8.0
+10.2
+11.0

199.0
205.1
209.0
224.5

130.5
135.6
139.0
141.9

44.6
46.2
47.9
49.3

85.9
89.4
91.1
92.6

58.5
58.7
58.1
53.6

+10.0
+10.7
+11.8
+28.9

210.5
211.8
205.8
209.4

145.2
149.4
150.9
151.2

51.3
52.2
51.0
53.7

93.9
97.2
99.9
97.5

48.4
48.8
46.2
40.4

+16.9
+13.5
+8.7
+17.8

163.1
PH7.3

146.9
pl44.6

52.8
P50.2

94-2
P94.4

35.3
P36.4

-19.2
P-33.7

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.

70




JULY 1975

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

• £ • GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Mil
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

B J F O R E I G N TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS

Year
and
quarter

250. Net exports
of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

252. Exports
of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

253. Imports
of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

262. Federal

260. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

264. National
defense

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and
local

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

-7.1
-6.9
-4.8
-5.3

69.1
68.8
73.3
78.5

76.1
75.7
78.1
83.8

251.1
253.8
255.1
262.6

105.6
105.9
102.7
105.2

75.9
75.9
72.6
74.7

145.5
147.9
152.4
157.4

-0.8
+0.5
+6.7
+9.3

88.8
95.4
103.7
113.6

89.5
94.9
96.9
104.3

269.0
273.3
276.9
286.4

106.4
106.2
105.3
108.4

75.0
74.0
73.3
75.3

162.6
167.1
171.6
177.9

+11.3
-1.5
-3.1
+1.9

131.2
138.5
143.6
147.5

119.9
140.0
146.7
145.7

296.3
304.4
312.3
323.8

111.5
114.3
117.2
124.5

75.8
76.6
78.4
84.0

I84.8
190.1
195.1
199.3

+8.8
P+9.2

142.2
P130.9

133.4
P121.7

331.6
V33S.8

126.5
pl28.6

84.7
P85.4

205.1
p210.2

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

Wm NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
• • I
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

J H F I N A L SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS

Year
and
quarter

270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

280. Compensation
of employees

Nondurable goods

Durable goods
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

282. Proprietors'
income

284. Rental income
of persons

275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

204.6
210.6
218.3
223.6

+2.7
+5.8
+6.8
+13.2

309.7
318.9
322.7
332.6

+2.2
+2.2
+3.4
-2.2

683.8
699.0
712.6
732.9

72.9
74.6
75.8
80.1

25.5
24.4
26.8
26.7

237.8
241.2
243.9
240.6

+6.1
+7.7
+9.0
+14.8

347.9
359.7
374.2
384.1

+3.9
+3.0
+2.9
+14.1

759.1
776.7
793.3
814.8

89.1
92.8
99.3
103.2

26.3
25.7
26.2
26.4

242.3
248.5
259.8
246.2

+8.7
-1.8
+5.7
+18.3

392.8
402.9
413.2

as.6

+8.2
+15.4
+3.0
-0.5

828.8
848.3
868.2
877.7

98.4
89.9
92.1
91.6

26.4
26.3
26.6
26.8

252.9
P259.4

-13.4
P-13.2

433,2
PU5.6

-5.7
p-20.5

875.6
P885.5

84.9
p86.0

27.0
P27.1

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e'\ estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,14,15, and 16.

licit

JULY 1975




71

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

•(•NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
• H
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

288. Net interest

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

QJSAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
290. Gross saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

296. Capital consumption
allowances

298. Government
surplus or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

86.5
89.5
92.9
99.8

43.6
44.9
46.2
47.5

164.4
169.4
175.0
I84.6

53.3
49.0
49.3
58.9

21.3
22.1
23.3
26.5

98.9
103.7
103.3
105.8

-8.2
-5.2
-0.6
-6.5

103.9
105.0
105.2
106.4

49.2
51.1
53.2
55.5

201.1
207.9
217.0
231.7

65.3
69.6
73.2
89.3

26.3
24.9
25.6
26.2

107.4
110.5
111.5
113.9

+2.1
+3.0
+6.7
+2.3

107.7
105.6
105.8
103.4

57.5
60.1
62.8
65.9

224.5
206.3
196.4
202.9

84.4
71.5
65.5
86.5

23.9
17.1
9.9
18.1

115.8
118.6
120.7
122.9

+0.4
-1.0
+0.2
-24.6

94-3
(NA)

68.9
P71.9

166.6
(NA)

75.9
P114.6

21.5
(NA)

125.2
P127.4

-56.0
(NA)

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

J ^ R E A L GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

Year
and
quarter

273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars

246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars

247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars

248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

263. Federal Gov^
ernment purchases of
goods and services,
constant (1958)
dollars

267. State and local
government purchases of goods and
services, constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

766.7
780.0
789.7
805.3

+4.2
+6.6
+8.5
+8.8

81.3
82.4
83.8
87.2

33.8
34.2
34.3
34.8

36.1
37.5
40.9
41.8

62.9
62.5
59.5
59.2

80.9
81.3
82.4
83.8

825.5
829.6
832.7
825.7

+7.3
+7.8
+8.0
+20.0

92.2
94.3
95.1
96.0

35.0
34.1
32.6
29.8

46.3
45.2
43.6
41.6

58.9
57.7
56.2
56.4

85.2
86.2
87.5
89.3

819.9
818.9
818.1
793.1

+10.6
+8.2
+5.0
+10.9

96.3
96.5
94.1
89.2

26.4
25.7
23.6
20.4

29.2
32.6
38.9
33.6

56.3
56.3
56.5
57.0

89.7
89.5
89.4
89.3

791.8
P798.2

-11.7
p-18.8

83.8
p81.0

17.3
P17.4

26.7
P33.6

57.4
P58.5

90.2
P90.9

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18.

72




JULY 1975

ItCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

0 1

Year
and
quarter

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Percent of Gross National Product
241 A. Fixed
investment,
nonresidential

230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures

244A. Fixed
investment, residential structures
(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

245A. Change
in business
inventories

250A. Net exports of goods
and services

(Percent)

(Percent)

262A. Federal
Govt. purchases of
goods and services

266A. State and local
govt. purchases of
goods and services

(Percent)

(Percent)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

62.9
63.0
63.0
62.9

10.1
10.0
10.0
10.2

4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7

+0.4
+0.7
+0.9
+0.9

-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4

9.5
9.3
8.8
8.7

13.0
12.9
13.0
13.1

62.6
62.5
62.4
61.3

10.4
10.6
10.6
10.6

4.7
4.6
4.4
4.0

+0.8
+0.8
+0.9
+2.2

-0.1
0.0
+0.5
+0.7

8.5
8.3
8.0
8.1

13.0
13.1
13.1
13.2

61.9
62.8
63.6
62.6

10.6
10.8
10.7
10.6

3.6
3.5
3.3
2.8

+1.2
+1.0
+0.6
+1.2

+0.8
-0.1
-0.2
+0.1

8.2
8.3
8.3
8.7

13.6
13.7
13.8
13.9

64.5
P65.4

10.4
plO.l

2.5
P2.5

-1.4
P-2.4

+0.6
p+0.6

8.9
P9.0

pl4.7

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

14.5

| ^ S H A R E S OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.

Year
and
quarter

Percent of National Income
280A. Compensation
of employees

(Percent)

282A. Proprietors'
income

284A. Rental income
of persons

286A. Corporate profits and
inventory valuation
adjustment

(Percent)

(Percent)

288A. Net interest

(Percent)

(Percent)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

75.0
75.0
74.7
74.3

8.0
8.0
7.9
8.1

2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7

9.5
9.6
9.7
10.1

4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8

73.9
73.9
73.6
73.6

8.7
8.8
9.2
9.3

2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4

10.1
10.0
9.8
9.6

4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0

74.1
75.1
75.1
75.3

8.8
8.0
8.0
7.9

2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3

9.6
9.3
9.2
8.9

5.1
5.3
5.4
5.7

76.1

7.4
(NA)

2.4
(NA)

8.2

(NA)

(NA)

6.0
(NA)

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.

JULY 1975



73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ [ E M P L O Y M E N T AND UNEMPLOYMENT

TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LEADING INDICATORS

Job
Vacancies

Marginal Employment Adjustments

* 1 . Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

(Hours)

21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing

(Hours)

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

(Per 100
employees)

*5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance,
State programs1

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

(Thous.)

(Per 100
employees)

Comprehensive
Employment

48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments

46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers

(1967=100)

(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)

1973

4-0.5
40.9
40.9

3.8
3.9
3.9

4.7
4.8
4.9

E>223

H> 4-0.9
4-0.7
4-0.6

3.9
3.8

July
August
September...

4-0.7
40.6
40.7

October
November . . .
December . . .

226
227

0.9
0.8
0.9

122
119
121

147.00
147.98
148.42

4.8
4.8
4.8

238
234
233

0.8
0.8
0.8

121
122
123

148.88
149.15
149.70

3.8
3.7
3.8

4.8
4.7
4.9

232
247
241

0.9
0.8
0.8

H>131
126
120

149.90
150.12
150.52

40.7
40.6
40.6

3.7
3.8
3.7

E>4.9

244
251
284

H)0.8

4.8
4.4

1.0
1.1

123
120
114

150.90
151.43
151.65

January
February
March

40.4
40.4
40.3

3.5
3.5
3.6

4.3
4.5
4.5

306
323
312

1.5
1.4
1.2

111
108
111

151.05
151.27
151.32

April
May
June

39.3
40.3
40.1

2.8
3.4
3.4

4.6
4.7
4.4

293
291
306

1.1
1.1
1.1

116
115
116

150.52
151.90
151.79

July
August
September...

40.2
40.2
40.0

3.4
3.4
3.3

4.4
4.3
4.1

290
332
362

1.0
1.2
1.3

119
115
103

151.59
151.96
152.36

October
November . . .
December . . .

40.1
39.5
39.4

3.2
2.8
2.7

3.6
3.1
3.0

410
458
504

1.9
2.6
2.6

94
86
79

H>152.72
150.23
149.16

39.2
38.8
38.8

2.3
2.3
2.3

3.1
3.3
3.5

548
550
545

3.5
3.4
2.8

73
71
70

148.29
146.39
145.90

r39.1
39.0
P39.1

2.3
2.3
P2.3

3.9
3.7
P3.6

517
496
p602

2.5
2.5
p2.0

71
71
P79

rl46.04
146.36
PU5.93

January
February
March
April
May
June

1974

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20, 21, and 39.
1

Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

74




JULY 1975

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

• ^ E M P L O Y M E N T AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

LAGGING
INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.

TIMING CLASS . . . .

* 4 1 . Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey

42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

Long-Duration
Unemployment

Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment-Con.

*43. Unemployment rate,total

40. Unemployment rate,
married males

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1

(Percent)

(Percent)

*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Percent)

(Percent)

1973

2.8
2.8
2.8

2.4
2.4
2.4

1.1
1.0
1.0

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.4
2.3
2.2

0.9
0.9
0.9

4.8
4.8
4.8

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.1
2.1
2.1

0.8
0.9
0.9

82,024
82,006
82,011

E>4.6
4.8
4.9

2.6
D>2.6
2.8

H>2.1
2.2
2.2

0.8
0.9
E>0.8

77,925
78,053
78,089

82,051
82,050
82,126

5.2
5.2
5.1

3.1
3.2
3.3

2.3
2.4
2.3

0.9
0.9
0.9

April
May
June

78,226
78,357
78,421

82,272
82,565
82,755

5.0
5.2
5.2

3.2
3.2
3.2

2.4
2.2
2.6

1.0

July
August
September..,

78,479
78,661
78,844-

H>82,970
82,823
82,913

5.3
5.4
5.8

3.2
3.2
3.4

2.7
2.7
2.8

1.1

October
November . . ,
December . . ,

E>78,865
78,404
77,690

82,864
82,314
81,863

6.0
6.6
7.2

3.7
4.2
4.9

3.0
3.3
3.8

1.1
1.2
1.4

77,227
76,708
76,368

81,179
80,701
80,584

8.2
8*2
8.7

5.5
6.0
6.4

4.5
4-7
5.2

1.7
2.0
2.2

r76,349
r76,439
p76,464

80,848
80,890
81,140

8.9
9.2
8.6

6.9
p6.6

5.6
5.8
5.7

2.6
2.8
3.1

January
February
March

75,472
75,851
76,111

79,182
79,863
80,256

April
May
June

76,339
76,508
76,787

80,521
80,669
81,022

July
August
September..,

76,867
77,163
77,315

81,144
81,148
81,626

October
November . . .
December . . ,

77,649
77,915
77,924

January
February
March

5.0
5.0
4.9

1974

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June

,

July
August
September..,
October
November . . ,
December . . ,

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated b y E > . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 2 1 , 2 2 , 4 1 , and 43.
^
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

BCII

JULY 1975



75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

| Q PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

Comprehensive Production

Comprehensive Income

*200. Gross na- *205. Gross na- *47.Index of
industrial protional product
tional product
in current dolin 1958 dollars duction
lars

*52. Personal
income

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(1967=100)

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

53. Wages and *56. Manufacsalaries in min- turing and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Sales of retail stores
*54. Current
dollar sales

(Mil.dol.)

59. Deflated
(1967 dollar)
sales
(Mil.dol.)

1973

122.2
123.4
123.7

1,002.0
1,014.4
1,024.5

235.1
238.0
239.8

135,848
138,047
140,074

1,238.9

837.4

124.1
124.9
125.6

1,031.7
1,038.9
1,047.2

242.2
244.1
246.8

140,022
141,726
141,354

1,308.9

840.8

126.7
126.5
126.8

1,056.1
1,067.6
1,080.4

248.4
249.7
253.4

1,344-0

E>845.7

127.0
E>127.5
126.5

1,090.8
1,100.0
1,107.1

January
February
March

830.5

125.4
124.6
124.7

1,107.0

1,358.8

April
May
June

1,383.8

827.1

July
August.
September

1,416.3

October
November
December

33,930
34,106

40,707
41,242
41,979

E>34,393

1,267.2

41,185
41,723
41,167

33,384
33,553
32,832

145,583
145,584
145,679

1,297.0

42,767
42,355
42,529

34,011
33,349
33,339

255.7
258.7
259.9

149,789
152,335
150,711

42,970
42,976
42,116

33,494

1,315.1

1,113.4
1,117.1

257.4
260.0
260.7

154,064
156,098
159,239

1,341.9

42,932
43,134
43,872

32,393
32,104
32,395

124.9
125.7
125.8

1,125.2
1,135.2
1,143.5

262.7
265.3
267.9

160,675
162,924
163,052

1,370.3

44,283
44,894
44,593

32,360
32,415
31,786

823.1

125-5
125.2
125.6

1,159.5
1,167.2
1,178.0

268.6
271.7
273-5

168,824
171,644
170,862

1,407.6

46,356
47,056
46,177

32,755
32,878
31,774

1,430.9

804.0

124.8
121.7
117.4

1,185.0
1,184.5
1,191.0

E>274.6
267.4
264.3

0)171,647
168,335
161,809

45,803
44,469
44,821

31,181
30,019
30,198

1,416.6

780.0

113.7
111.2
rllO.O

1,191.1
1,193.4
1,195.7

261.2
255.4
255.2

161,754
162,814
158,544

45,955
46,819
45,926

30,883
31,398
r30,575

[H>pl,433.4

p779.*4

rl,203.1
rlO9.9
rlO9.6
rl,214.3
pllO.O [R>pl,244.9

255.7
r256.7
P258.9

rl62,04l
pl62,626
(NA)

r46,712
r47,951

r3O,920
r31,670
p31,676

January
February .
March

1,248.9

April
May
June

1,277.9

July
August
September
October
November
December

832.8

33,209
32,121

1974

1,413.1
...

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June

1,435.8

[H>pl, 467.1

E>P48,285

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by (H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by|H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23,24, and 42.

76




JULY 1975

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

£ Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

TIMING CLASS . . . .

LEADING INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

Formation of Business
Enterprises

•12.Index of
net business
formation

(1967=100)

New Investment Commitments

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries

8.Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1

*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment

11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations 2

24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense

(Number)

(Bil.dol.)

(1967=100)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

9. Construction contracts
for commercial and industrial buildings, floor

(Million
sq.feet)

(Million
sq. meters)3

1973

119.1
119.9
1)120.8

27,796
28,752
28,964

38.37
39.02
40.40

185
191
193

11.33
11.36
11.69

9.50

April
May
June

119.3
118.8
118.5

28,522
28,286
27,999

40.62
a . 51
41.95

177
173
183

11.30
11.94
12.76

July
August
September...

118.2
117.2
115.6

27,664
26,689
26,240

41.84
a.98
41.15

175
H>199
182

October
November . . .
December . . .

116.2
117.6
114.0

26,809
26,718
24,881

43.30
43.48
41.03

January .
February
March

113.3
113.0
113.9

26,511
27,056
26,458

April
May
June

115.9
116.3
115.7

H>29,071
27,562
25,785

July
August
September...

118.6
114.6
111.1

27,790
26,495
26,313

October
November . . .
December . . .

105.2
105.1
106.3

January
February
March

9.57
9.45

10.04

87.48
85.89
84.71

8.13
7.98
7.87

10.63

9.94
10.04
10.56

83.61
83.73
85.79

7.77
7.78
7.97

12.62
12.65
12.26

11.32

10.57
10.28
10.39

E>95.42
89.80
83.77

8.34
7.78

191
194
161

13.29
13.40
12.73

l l ! 82

10.93
11.16
10.94

91.60
87.47
69.51

8.51
8.13
6.46

a . 52
42.27
41.97

155
187
181

12.66
13.17
13.01

11.00
11.42
11.30

76.53
80.67
75.07

7.11
7.49
6.97

46.73
46.85

167
188
166

13.67
14.57
13.84

11.92
11.80
12.01

82.77
77.98
75.83

7.69
7.24
7.04

0)49.46
46.40

177
170
187

(H>15.16
13.52
14.08

0)12.80
11.80
11.83

76.64
82.17
73.70

7.12
7.63
6.85

25,404
25,555
25,003

45.08
43.18
37.84

148
154
176

12.87
12.34
13.64

11.38
10.62
IO.46

62.47
56.71
54.25

5.80
5.27
5.04

102.9
101.7
103.0

24,406
24,298
24,922

36.06
37.02
35.49

135
135
153

11.39
11.34
11.44

10.08
9.97
9.52

54.39
46.54
39.69

5.05
4.32
3.69

rlO3.4
10^.8
(NA)

26,506
26,670
(NA)

38.75
1-39.18
P39.54

189
182
174

13.01
rl2.99
pl2.50

10.31
rlO.3O
plO.30

56.90
44.79
50.54

5.29
4.16
4.70

1974

47.71

15.31

12! 69

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated b y ® . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 2 5 , 2 6 , and 39.
This is a copyrighted series used \jy permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division (series B and 9) or The Conference Board (series 11).
Data beginning with the 4th quarter 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See June 1975 BCD, page 77.
3
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

I M J I JULY 1975




77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

• • • I N V E N T O R I E S AND INVENTORY
l i l
INVESTMENT

I N F I X E D CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

LEADING INDICATORS

New Investment
Commitments-Con.

Backlog of Investment
Commitments

Investment Expenditures

Inventory Investment and Purchasing

28. New private
housing units
started, total 1

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

*29.Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits1
(1967=100)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

(Bil.dol.)

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manuacturing2

(Bil.dol.)

* 6 1 . Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construction expend i:ures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

245. Change
in business
inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

* 3 1 . Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total

37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

1973
January
February
March

2,486
2,376
2,309

195.7
191.8
177.7

82.27
83.91
86.80

April
May
June

2,096
2,313
2,087

164.4
166.4
176.7

89.60
92.74

July
August
September...

2,120
2,058
-1,861

156.8
155.9
146.8

98.46
101.54
103.45

October
November . . .
December . . .

1,692
1,721
1,441

121.6
120.8
111.0

105.87
108.30
109.86

1,437
1,881
1,511

112.5
113.9
120.2

111.38
113.58
114.93

1,580
1,467
1,533

108.9
99.9
96.1

117.82
122.02
126.08

July
August
September..

1,314
1,156
1,157

89.6
80.0
73.5

October
November . .
December . .

1,106
1,017

96.a

96.19
25.94

126.80
126.51
128.52

+10.0

+22.2
+23.4
+19.6

61
63
61

+10.7

+16.7
+27.8
+30.5

57
58
63

131.73
97.76
29! 42

132.a
135.14

100.90

137.47
135.53
137.26

+11.8

+24.0
+23.9
+22.6

64
61
64

103.74

139.91
142.39
142.81

H>+28.9

+26.9
+35.7
+49.6

E>70
64
65

107.27

144.58
147.63
149.04

+16.9

+35.0
+38.7
+35.8

63
59
57

111.40

149.90
151.29
156.85

+13.5

+25.2
+48.0
+55.4

59
58
56

129-67
134.30
H>135.70

113.99

151.21
151.16
155.46

+8.7

+59.3
+54.4
+63.8

54
57
58

69.9
66.4
72.1

134.22
132.66
129.94

0)116.22

[H>16O.O4
159.26
155.69

+17.8

(H)+71.9
+40.0
+46.7

49
47
41

999
1,000
985

59.4
60.4
58.3

125.87
123.25
120.10

114.57

153.06
155.70
150.51

-19.2

+0.1
-11.8
-22.4

37
30
30

r980
rl,129
pi,070

72.1
r78.6
P79.8

118.23
rll7.48
P117.23

rl51.52
PH9.40
(NA)

r-18.0

all3.39

P-33.7

26
31
29

33^02

36! 66

1974
January
February
March
April
May
June

,
,

38.89

44.67

50.10

1975
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June

P48.50

(NA)

July
August
September..

all3.87

October
November . .
December . .

all5.38

P-35.6
(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by H ) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; " e ' \ estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26,27,28,40, and 43.
•"•Series reaching high values before 1973 are as follows: Series 28, January 1972 (2,494); Series 29, December 1972 (208.5).
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board. Data beginning with the 4th quarter 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See June 1975 BCD, page 78.

78




JULY 1975

BCD

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

LAGGING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.

Inventories

TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

K B PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

^ I N V E N T O R I E S AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.

20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

26. Prod, materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days
or longer©
(Percent
reporting)

32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries ©
(Percent
reporting)

25. Change in
unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries

(Bil.dol.)'

• 7 1 . Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value

(Bil.dol.)

LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices

Stock Prices

Profits and Profit Margins

65. Mfrs.'
inventories of
finished
goods, book
value

*23.Index of
industrial
materials
prices©

*19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks®

Corporate profits after
taxes

(Bil.dol.)

(1967=100)

1941-43=10)

*16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

18. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1973
January
February
March

+4.1
+5.3
+3.2

63
68
67

78
84
88

+1.36
+1.64
+2.89

198.94
200.89
202.52

35.72
35.87
36.19

139.3
147.5
155.3

E>118.42
114.16
112.42

71.5

50.5

April
May
June

+4.2
+5.3
+6.9

77
80
78

90
B>92
89

+2.80
+3.14
+3.67

203.91
206.23
208.77

36.08
36.45
36.84

158.2
162.9
170.1

110.27
107.22
104.75

74.0

51.4

July
August
September...

+7.6
+6.3
+7.0

82
80
83

88
90

+2.05
+3.09
+1.90

210.77
212.76
214.64

36.85
36.74
37.04

178.1
189.8
186.3

105.83
103.80
105.61

72.9

49.8

October
November . . .
December . . .

+7.9
+5.7
+13.1

87
84
87

90
91

+2.42
+2.42
+1.56

216.89
219.87
224.00

37.12
37.33
37.95

188.1
192.4
208.9

109.84
102.03
94.78

73.2

49.1

January
February
March

+12.2
+11.8
+13.8

90
IH)91
85

85
88

+1.52
+2.20
+1.34

226.92
230.14
233.12

38.46
38.89
39.11

215.9
232.0
237.2

96.11
93.45
97.44

83.2

54.5

April
May
June

+12.6
+16.0
+13.5

83
84
84

84
79
76

+2.89
+4.20
+4.07

235.22
239.22
243.83

39.35
39.76
40.39

E>238.4
226.2
227.5

92.46
89.67
89.79

83.1

52.9

July
August
September...

D+19.7
+17.9
+15.5

83
85
83

72
68
52

+3.58
H>+4.64
+1.39

248.78
253.31
258.62

41.34
42.09
43.41

228.2
224.2
214.7

82.82
76.03
68.12

(H>94.3

.2

October
November . . .
December . . .

+9.5
+4.8
+19.2

82
73
69

46
32
22

-1.47
-1.57
-2.71

264.61
267.95
271.84

44.27
45.58
46.73

204.4
196.4
183.4

69.44
71.74
67.07

79.5

46.9

+8.4
+2.1
-6.1

64
64
58

18
16
17

-4.07
-2.63
-3.15

E>271.84
270.86
268.99

47.60
47.70
H>47.73

180.1
181.1
182.3

72.56
80.10
83.78

62.3

35.9

-12.2
-10.5
(NA)

57
54
56

22
24
26

-1.87
r-0.76
P-0.25

r267.49
P264.52

47.29
47.01
(NA)

186.4
184.2
173.2

84.72
90.10
92.40

(NA)

(NA)

1974

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

July
August
..
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by E > . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28,29,30,40,41, and 43.
1

Average for July 1, 8, and 15.

BCII JULY 1975




2

Average for July 2, 9, 16, and 23.

79

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

H J P R I C E S , COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.

TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

Profits and Profit Margins-Con.

22. Ratio,
profits to
income
orig. in
corporate
business

15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all 2
mfg. corp.

•17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.

(Percent)

(Cents)

(1967=100)

Cash Flows

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices

Unit Labor Costs

55. Index of 58. Index of
Unit labor cost, total
wholesale
private economy
wholesale
prices, mfd.
prices,
goods®
63.Index
63c. Change
35. Constant industrial
over 1-Q
(1958) dot. commod.®
spans
(Ann.
rate,
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
bil.dol.)

Net cash flows, corporate
34. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per
unit of gross
prod. (1958
dol.), corp.

*62.Index
of labor
cost per
unit of output, mfg.

(1967=100)

(Dollars)

1973
127.6

7.5
...

0.858

129.8
...

6.8
...
...

0.870
...

1 2 0 . 2
1 2 0 . 7
1 2 1 . 2

0.884
...

1 2 2 . 4
1 2 3 . 3

0.905
...

1 2 4 . 7
1 2 4 . 8
1 2 5 . 4

January
February .
March

11.4

4-7

103.0
104.1
105.3

112.0

79.1

120.0
121.3
122.8

121.6
123.6
125.7

April
May
June

11.6

4-7

104.7
105.6
IO6.4

115.7

80.5

124.2
125.3
126.0

126.4
128.3
130.1

July
August
September

11.1

4.7

106.0
109.3
106.9

114.8

78.5

126.1
126.7
127.4

129.1
133.4
131.8

132.1

October
November
December

10.8

106.3
107.5
108.6

115.5

128.5
130.1
132.2

132.0
132.8
135.1

134.7

5.7

78.1

1 1 8 . 4
1 1 8 . 4
1 1 9 . 0

1 2 1 . 6

7.4
...
8.0
...

1974

D16.5

January
February
March

11.6

5.8

110.7
111.2
112.2

125.7

83.4

135.3
138.2
142.4

138.6
140.9
143.6

139.9

April
May
June

12.1

5.6

112.8
113.9
114.0

126.3

81.5

146.6
150.5
153.6

146.0
149.3
151.5

144.1

E/13.5

E>5.9

116.7
119.5
120.0

H>138.6

E>86.4

157.8
161.6
162.9

156.4
161.8

11.1

4.9

120.9
|H>121.5
119.9

125.5

74.0

I64.8
165.8
166.1

165.2
166.2
166.9

153.6

9.3

3.8

117.5
116.2
113.7

109.6
« • •

62.5

167.5
I68.4
168.9

168.2
168.0
167.8

157.6

(NA)

(NA)

rll3.7
rll2.6
pll2.1

(NA)

(NA)

169.7
170.3
|H>170.7

168.7
169.5
0)170.1

H>Pl59.6

July
August
September
October
November
December

0.937

1 2 5 . 6
1 2 6 . 5
1 2 7 . 4

0.964

1 2 9 . 0
1 3 0 . 2
1 3 1 . 8

0.993

1 3 4 - 0
1 3 4 . 6
1 3 5 . 5

1.023

1 3 6 . 8
1 3 8 . 1
1 4 0 . 5

E>1.043

1 4 4 . 0
1 4 4 . 5
1 4 7 . 3

12.6

148.5

12.8
...

162.4
14.4

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June

rl0.7

P5.2

rl48.1
rl49.7

(NA)

E>Pl50.4

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 3 0 , 3 1 , 3 2 , 4 1 , and 43.
2
Data beginning with the 4th quarter 1973 are not comparable with earlier data due to changes in the definition of profits
and in the rules for consolidation. The figure for the 4th quarter 1973 on the old basis is 4.8.

80




J U L Y

1 9 7 5

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

E H M O N E Y AND CREDIT

LEADING INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process

Year

Credit Difficulties

Flows of Money and Credit

85. Change in
U.S. money ±
supply (M1)

and
month
(Ann. rate,
percent)

102. Change in
money supply
plus time
deposits at
commercial
banks (M2)1
(Ann. rate,

percent)

103. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at banks
and nonbank institutions (M3)1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies * 2
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

112. Net
change in
bank loans to
businesses3

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

*113.Net
change in consumer installment debt

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

110. Total
private
borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil, dol)

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures®1

(Mil. dol.)

39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over,
consumer
installment
loans1
(Percent)

1973

+5.16
+4-67
+0.47

+9.36
+7.02
+5.40

+10.65
+8.45
+6.99

+47.92
+49.33
+53.46

+23.70
+50.95
+41.00

+6.51
+13.42
+13.72

+7.85
+12.03
+11.69

+8.20
+11.18
+11.76

+52.75
+53.51
+57.43

+26.14
+14.32
+13.07

+16.85
+23.89
+19.34

July
August
September...

+3.62
-0.45
-1.35

+5.24
+6.96
+4.54

+5.96
+5.26
+4.43

+53.60
+52.30
+43.74

+22.94
+29.40
+6.02

October
November . . .
December . . .

+4.06
+12.60
+9.35

+9.48
+11.97
+10.58

+8.42
+10.49
+10.27

+40.69
+39.76
+31.66

-2.65
+9.75
+9.23

+6.92
+11.26
+9.50

+7.31
+9.47
+9.65

+7.99
+4.48
+11.16

July
August
September...

+6.10
+4-34
+10.37
+1.71
+0.43
+0.86

October
November . . .
December . . .

January
February
March
April
May

June

185,696

205.84
137.16
252.35

178,460

119.34
167.95
180.21

+23.98
+22.74
+16.31

184,496

206.19
190.15
189.47

+3.13
+4.31
+17.00

+20.40
+20.71
+4.92

161,928

185.66
218.67
245.62

+36.94
+39.94
+41-94

+19.79
+1.04
+30.01

+11.00
+8.05
+7.40

157,216

337.28
213.13
204.59

+7.53
+3.68
+8.98

48.36
r+47.39
r+39.55

H)+52.21
+20.42
+14.92

+13.84
+15.14
+13.03

207,192

209.76
375.69
215.50

+5.02
+4.60
+2.99

+4.90
+3.63
+2.87

r+39.84
r+31.62
r+30.67

+44.54
+14.17
+21.02

+15.90
+18.14
+8.12

164,088

153.40
232.68
217.01

+3.85
+8.52
+3.38

+8.35
+7.90
+3.73

+7.34
+7.42
+5.90

r+29.34
r+24.11
r+16.54

+9.90
+21.42
+14.22

+4.82
-4.80
-9.77

306.83
344-66
242.59

2.65

142,088

-9.28

+3.91
+9.36
+11.80

+6.48
+IO.46
+13.98

r+24.80
+30.29
+29.04

-11.59
r-39.71
r-16.90

-4.81
+2.84
-5.24

p89,200

391.14
384.76
343.35

2.59
2.71
2.94

+7.66
r+13.13
p+18.83

+11.91
+14.75
H>P+19.35

+36.44
P+39.54
(NA)

r-22.63
r-23.33
P-18.34

-2.90
-1.50
(NA)

372.08
357.79
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

+23.39
+23.96

H>+24.53

2.01
2.01
1.99
2*.O2

2.11

1974
January
February
March
April
May
June

2^54
2.56
2.*6l
2.63

2.80

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September...

+5.53
+11.01
+4-19
r+10.87
B>P+17.81
4

+2.45

4

+8.36

4

-0.12

October
November . . .
December . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [fi>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 3 3 , 3 4 , and 4 1 .
i n .
, .
, . n
.,
, „
. , »
H a
,a.uti.
± S e r i e g reaching high values before 1973 are as follows: Series 102, February 1971
(+18.98); Series 33, December 1972 (+57.89); Series 14, December 1972 (86.79); Series 39, December 1971 (1.71). 2 Data include
conventional mortgages held by GNMA.
Data beginning October 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See October
1974 BCD, page iii. 4Average for weeks ended July 2, 9, and 16.

I JULY 1975




81

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ J M O N E Y AND CREDIT-Con.

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process

Bank
Reserves

93. Free
eserves@

LAGGING INDICATORS

Interest Rates

119. Federal funds

rate®

114. Treasury bill
rate©

Outstanding Debt

116. Cor15. Treas- 117. Munic- 66. Consumer
installment
porate bond ury bond ipal bond
debt
ields@
ields@ y i e l d s ©

and
month
(Mil.dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Mil.dol.)

Interest Rates

72. Commercial 109. Average prime
and industrial
rate charged
loans outstandby banks®
ing, weekly reporting large
commercial
banks1
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)

*67. Bank
rates on
short-term
business
loans, 35
cities @

118. Mortgage yields,
residen:ial@

(Percent)

(Percent)

1973
January
February
March

-823
-1,388
-1,563

5.94
6.58
7.09

5.31
5.56
6.05

7.61
7.67
7.75

5.96
6.14
6.20

5.05
5.13
5.29

126,388
128,385
130,429

93,885
98,131
101,548

6.00
6.02
6.30

6.52

7.55
7.56
7.63

April
May
June

-1,564
-1,638
-1,653

7.12
7.84
8.49

6.29
6.35
7.19

7.70
7.69
7.73

6.11
6.25
6.32

5.15
5.14
5.18

131,833
133,824
135,436

103,726
104,919
106,008

6.60
7.01
7.49

7.35

7.73
7.79
7.89

July
August
September...

-1,584
-1,734
-1,477

10.40
10.50
10.78

8.02
8.67
8.48

7.97
8.45
8.10

6.53
6.85
6.41

5.40
5.48
5.10

137,434
139,329
140,688

107,920
110,370
110,872

8.30
9.23
9.86

9.24

8.19
(NA)
9.18

October
November . . .
December . . .

-1,141
-1,111

10.01
10.03
9.95

7.16
7.87
7.36

7.97
7.95
8.09

6.25
6.30
6.35

5.05
5.18
5.12

142,388
U4,114
144,524

111,133
111,492
112,909

9.94
9.75
9.75

10.08

8.97
8.86
8.78

7.76
7.06
7.99

8.32
8.21
8.60

6.56
6.54
6.81

5.22
5.20
5.40

145,441
146,112
146,729

114,558
114,645
117,146

9.73
9.21
8.83

9.91

(NA)
8.54
8.66

8.23
8.43
8.14

9.04
9.39
9.59

7.04
7.09
7.02

5.73
6.02
6.13

147,882
149,144
150,230

121,497
123,199
124,442

10.02
11.25
11.54

11.15

9.17
9.46
9.46

10.18
7.18
7.75
>8.74
10.30 E>7.33
8.36 [H)10.44
7.30

6.68
6.71
6.76

151,555
153,067
153,744

128,154
129,335
130,988

11.98
12.00
H>12.00

[H>12.40

9.85
10.30
B>10.38

-995

1974
January
February
March

-1,444

9.65
8.97
9.35

April
May
June

-1,506
-2,282
-2,739

10.51
11.31
11.93

July
August
September...

-2,982
-3,008
-2,957

B>12.92
12.01
11.34

October
November . . .
December . . .

-1,585
-960
-332

10.06
9.45
8.35

7.24
7.58
7.18

10.29
9.22
9.47

7.22
6.93
6.77

6.57
6.61
E>7.05

0)154,146
153,746
152,932

131,813
133,598
E>134,783

11.68
10.83
10.50

11.64

10.13
(NA)
9.51

-441

6.49
5.58
5.54

9.17
8.84
9.48

6.68
6.66
6.77

6.82
6.39
6.74

152,531
152,768
152,331

133,817
rl30,508
rl29,100

10.05
8.96
7.93

9.94

8.99
8.84
8.69

5.69
5.32
5.19

9.81
9.76
9.27

7.05
r7.01
6.86

6.95
6.97
6.95

152,089
151,964
(NA)

rl27,214
rl25,270
pl23,742

7.50
7.47
7.08

8.16

(NA)
9.16
9.06

9.54

5

-790
-980

1975
January
February
March

+167

7.13
6.24
5.54

April
May
June

+17
r-52
p+318

5.49
5.22
5.55

July
August
September..

2

+95
,

-226

3

6.11

4

6.09

5

6.88

4

7.01

2

123,645

6

7.07

October
November ..
December ..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by (H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by H ) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "x" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35,36, and 43.
x
Data beginning with September 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See October 1974 BCD, page iii. Average
for weeks ended July 2, 9, and 16. 3Average for weeks ended July 2, 9, 16, and 23. 4Average for weeks ended July 3, 10, and 17.
5
Average for weeks ended July 4, 11, and 18. 6Average for July 1 through 23.

82




JULY 1975

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing

Q[COMPOSITE INDEXES

Year
and
month

820. Five
coinciders,
estimated
aggregate
economic
activity
(series 41, 43,
47,52, 56)

825. Five
coinciders, estimated aggregate economic
activity,
deflated
(series 41,43,
47,52D, 56D)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

830. Six
laggers
(series 44,
61,62,67,
71,72)

Leading Indicator Subgroups

813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1,2,
3,5)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6,10,
12,29)
(1967=100)

815. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25,31,37)
(1967=100)

816. Profitability
(series 16,
17,19)

(1967=100)

817. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33,85,
112,113)

(1967=100)

1973
January
February
March

147.6

134.9
136.1
136.5

145.6
149.2
151.9

102.2

114.8
116.6
118.8

124.2

102.5
103.2

121.2
121.6
122.2

115.6

149-4
150.9

116.3
118.5

125.9
(0)128.6

April
May
June

151.8
153-3
154.5

136.7
137.4
137.6

155.6
158.3
162.5

E>103.3
103.2
102.3

120.8
120.9
(0)122.4

118.6
121.3
123.9

118.1
119.0
118.8

120.4
123.7
121.9

July
August
September

156.4
157.4
158.5

139.5
138.7
139.9

167.4
171.0
173.6

101.7
102.2
102.8

121.1
120.5
118.9

123.6
126.9
125.3

118.6
120.8
119.2

122.5
117.4
108.7

October
November
December

161.0
162.6
162.1

141.6
B)142.2
140.5

177.2
178.9
182.2

102.6
100.8
97.7

118.9
119.2
116.1

127.1
129.1
132.9

119.6
119.0
119.5

108.2
110.6
104.7

January
February
March

161.6
162.4
163.6

138.8
138.4
138.5

184.3
186.4
190.8

95.3
95.2
94.8

115.7
116.6
117.3

132.1
135.2
134.6

122.8
123.7
125.6

106.9
109.6
115.8

April
May
June

I64.8
165.9
166.6

138.7
138.6
138.2

195.1
199.8
204.5

95.6
95.6
96.1

118.3
II8.4
117.4

135.3
137.3
138.0

124.8
125.0
126.4

123.1
121.0
116.1

July
August
September

168.5
169.5
169.5

138.8
138.2
137,4

210.5
214.5
216.3

95.8

118.8
115.9
113.3

137.8
B>138.0
134.4

128.0

94.3
92.3

E>129.4
125.4

rll5.8
113.7
rlO5.5

October
November
December

E>169.5
165.9
161.2

136.2
132.3
128.2

219.0
E)220.4
220.0

88.5
85.0
83.1

109.6
IO8.4
108.6

129.4
124.0
120.3

124.9
124.4
119.4

rlO6.2
rlOl.O
93.2

January
February
March

157.8
156.4
rl54-l

125.2
124.1
z-122.0

217.8
212.9
210.1

81.2
80.9
81.8

104.0
103.9
103.7

113.0
111.8
110.6

117.1
115.9
114.5

r89.7
r91.3
89.2

April
May
June

rl54.8
155-2
1
158.1

rl22.2
122.4
X
124.6

r205.5
r201.5
P200.2

r83.3
p82.9
(NA)

rlO7.5
rlO8.8
plO8.8

rill.9
rlll.7
P109.1

rll4.9
rll5.7
P115.9

r94.0
P96.0
(NA)

1974

1975

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated b y ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by[fi). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
1

Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.

The new index of 12 leading indicators is shown on pages v and vii; the old leading index is shown on page 112.

IICII

JULY 1975




83

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Q |
Year
and
quarter

AGGREGATE SERIES

61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

412. Manufacturers' inventories,
total book value

410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value

b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual

c. First
anticipations as
percent of actual

(Percent)

(Percent)

4 4. Condition
of manufacturers'
inventories: perce nt considered
h gh less percent
cc nsidered low
(Percent)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

86.79
87.12
87.67
91.94

100.9
104.1
103.1
100.5

100.4
102.3
102.3
99.9

177.6
182.2
187.6
197.5

103.0
104.3
106.2
107.7

12
10
11
10

96.19
97.76
100.90
103.74

100.6
100.8
101.0
101.2

100.5
102.4
100.9
100.6

205.3
210.6
216.7
225.4

110.2
113.0
116.1
120.9

9
11
12
13

107.27
111.40
113.99
116.22

99.9
99.3
99.1
98.4

100.8
98.7
99.3
99.8

231.6
255.7
253.7

126.5
133.5
143.0
150.4

18
22
23
31

114-57

98.8
(NA)

103.0
(NA)

235.0
ra249.8
a263.9

151.2
raHS.l
al53.9

30
(NA)

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

2a.3

1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

all3.39
all3.87
all5.38
H [

Year
and
quarter

K R

AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.

416. Adequacy
of mf rs.' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(Percent)

D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries

435. Index of
consumer
sentiment ®

b. Second
anticipations

a. Actual
expenditures
(First quarter
1966=100)

DIFFUSION INDEXES

(1-Qspan)

D440. New orders,
manufacturing1 ®
Actual

c. First
anticipations

(1-Qspan)

(1-Qspan)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

24
26
31
35

87.5
89.3
94.0
90.8

44.4
50.0
55.6
83.3

77.8
63.9
88.9
75.0

75.0
44.4
47.2
50.0

82
84
86
84

82
86
88
88

41
45
48
51

80.8
76.0
71.8
75.7

83.3
61.1
83.3
66.7

77.8
77.8
72.2
75.0

86.1
63.9
61.1
72,2

88
90
88
86

88
90
88
87

51
49
45
32

60.9
72.0
64.5
58.4

77.8
86.1
61.1
63.9

72.2
77.8
61.1
55.6

75.0
86.1
69.4
61.1

84
82
74
59

86
80
85
80

22
(NA)

58.0
72.9

38.9
(NA)

36.1
41.7

66.7
52.8
66.7

50
(NA)

72
59
70

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44,45, and 46.
1(
Tnis is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.

84




JULY 1975

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Q j

Year
and
quarter

D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade1 ©

D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1 ®
Anticipated

Actual

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade1 ®

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

74
76
79
80

76
82
84
83

82
82
B5
86

78
79
76
76

82
B5
84
80

74
76
71
63
52
(MA)

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

D450. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1 ®
Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

83
BB
90
BB

56
58
62
60

58
60
61
60

64
66
72
71

61
66
66
66

86
89
86
85

BB
90
90
BB

63
62
60
60

60
63
62
60

73
76
75
76

69
72
72
70

80
74
79
77

82
84
80
70

86
78
86
82

58
59
56
49

61
56
60
5B

78
79
78
69

70
67
72
72

68
58
66

57
(NA)

75
62
73

44
(NA)

53
48
54

58
(NA)

64
54
50

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

Q

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Selling prices

Year
and
quarter

D460. Manufacturing
and trade1 ©
Actual

D462. Manufacturing1 ®

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

Actual

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

D464. Wholesale trade1 ®
Actual

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

D466. Retail trade1 ©
Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

74
76
76
78

68
74
75
72

70
72
72
74

68
72
72
70

80
81
82
80

70
78
80
74

73
78
79
81

67
74
74
74

86
86
90
92

76
82
B5
83

82
84
86
90

73
80
83
82

90
89
92
96

80
86
88
84

90
87
93
93

76
85
88
83

94
96
94
90

87
90
92
91

92
96
94
89

86
89
92
90

96
96
94
91

BB
94
92
91

92
97
96
92

87
89
92
93

80
(NA)

87
76
69

81
(NA)

86
76
68

80
(NA)

87
74
70

80
(NA)

88
75
72

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun &Bradstreet,
Inc.

BCII JULY 1975




85

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

FOREIGN TRADE

Year
and
month

500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)

(Mil.dol.)

502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

(Mil. dol.)

506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles
and parts

(Mil.dol.)

508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery

(1967=100)

512. General imports, total

(Mil.dol.)

1973
January
February
March

-289
-413
-102

4,955
5,070
5,311

2,304
2,248
2,307

164
172
184

5,244
5,483
5,414

April
May
June

+133
-14-2
-47

5,494
5,561
5,728

2,111
2,258
2,109

193
184
207

5,360
5,703
5,775

July
August
September...

+37
+32
+776

5,865
6,0^2
6,420

2,228
2,853
2,104

189
192
194

5,829
6,010
5,644

October

+589
+194
+658

6,585
6,879
6,949

2,633
2,291
2,665

195
205
191

5,996
6,684
6,291

January
February
March

r+652
r+231
-116

7,150
7,549
7,625

2,828
2,872
3,115

213
216
205

r6,498
r7,318
7,742

April
May
June

r+82
-612
r-260

8,108
7,652
8,317

3,375
3,520
2,960

219
206
210

8,025
8,264
r8,577

July
August
September..,

r-615
r-888
r-297

r8,307
r8,379
r8,399

2,900
3,204
3,327

211
219
215

r8,922
r9,267
r8,696

October
November . .
December . .

r-lOO
rO
r-395

8,673
r8,973
8,862

3,565
3,264
3,305

207
190
178

r8,773
r8,973
r9,257

January
February . . .
March

-210
+917
+1,380

9,412
8,789
8,716

3,295
3,166
3,647

187
172
178

9,622
7,872
7,336

April
May
June

+557
+1,052
(NA)

8,570
8,145
(NA)

3,193
3,446
(NA)

194
P191
(NA)

8,013

November . . .
December . . .
1974

1975

7,093
(NA)

July
August
September..
October

November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§). Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.

86




JULY 1975

ItCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Q |
250. Balance
on goods and
services

Year
and
quarter

(Mil. dol.)

515. Balance
on goods, services,
and remittances

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

521. N et
liquid t y balance

519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital

517. Balance
on current
account

522. Official
reserve transactions balance

530. Liquid
'labilities to all
foreigners1®

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

-1,786
-1,657
-1,245
-1,243

-2,187
-2,050
-1,625
-1,674

-2,773
-2,608
-2,198
-2,131

-3,953
-2,338
-2,966
-1,855

-3,460
-2,287
-4,570
-3,511

-3,563
-624
-4,681
-1,485

66,925
69,880
75,498
78,679

-361
166
1,553
2,820

-755
-228
1,147
2^110

-1,116
-849
653
1,647

-1,393
-1,085
1,917
-419

-6,811
-1,719
1,826
-950

-10,629
551
2,318
2,449

r85,36l
r86,279
r86,576
r87,572

-261
919

2,545
-457
-718
480

-51
-1,865
-1,526
-169

1,624
-2,380
-3,600
-6,573

-1,199
-6,212
-3,909
-7,725

552
-4,192
119
-4,855

r91,l60
r98,837
rlO5,4O4
rll2,825

p3,344

p2,886

p2,148

P-475

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

P3,O71
(NA)

p-3,223
(NA)

rpll3,143
(NA)

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

. .

1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

0 | B A L A N C E OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Year
and
quarter

532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1®
(Mil. dol.)

534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets3®

Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Goods and services
252. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

253. Imports
(Mil. dol.)

Merchandise, adjusted

Income on investment, military
transactions, other services

536. Exports

537. Imports

540. Exports

541. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

53,806
54,604
60,075
61,526

12,270
13,339
13,217
13,151

17,247
17,275
18,349
19,729

19,033
18,932
19,594
20,972

11,798
11,699
12,496
13,395

13,489
13,296
14,027
14,985

5,449
5,576
5,853
6,334

5,544
5,636
5,567
5,987

r71,336
70,701
69,777
r66,814

12,931
12,914
12,927
14,378

22,329
24,144
26,282
29,298

22,690
23,978
24,729
26,478

15,423
16,958
18,451
20,547

16,334
17,189
17,737
19,164

6,906
7,186
7,831
8,751

6,356
6,789
6,992
7,314

r65,620
r70,030
r72,716
r76,624

14,588
14,946
15,893
15,883

33,324
35,498
37,179
38,405

30,409
35,498
37,440
37,486

22,451
24,206
25,026
26,585

22,651
25,743
27,367
28,035

10,873
11,292
12,153
11,820

7,758
9,755
10,073
9,451

rp79,176
(NA)

16,256
(NA)

P37,l6l
(NA)

P33,817
(NA)

p27,222
(NA)

p25,38l
(NA)

p9,939
(NA)

p8,436
(NA)

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
x
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49, 50, and 51.
Amount outstanding at end of quarter. 2Less than $500,000 (+). 3Reserve position
at end of quarter. 4Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).

BCII

JULY 1975



87

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Year
and
quarter

Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)

544. Receipts
from foreign travelers in the U.S.
(Mil, dol.)

543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

Transportation and other services

Military transactions

Travel

Income on investments
542. U.S. investments abroad

545. Payments
by U.S. travelers
abroad
(Mil, dol.)

547. Military
expenditures
abroad ®
(Mil, dol.)

546. Sales under
military contracts
(Mil, dol.)

548. Receipts

549. Payments

from

for

(Mil, dol.)

(Mil, dol.)

1972
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

2,274
2,387
2,595
2,905

1,364
1,403
1,462
1,612

673
695
713
736

1,232
1,231
1,250
1,329

332
281
255
295

1,222
1,272
1,105
1,185

2,170
2,213
2,290
2,398

1,726
1,730
1,750
1,861

3,123
3,304
3,576
3,995

1,799
2,096
2,413
2,511

817
860
899

1,338
1,394
1,375
1,419

347
455
531
1,009

1,174
1,236
1,072
1,177

2,600
2,610
2,864
2,848

2,045
2,063
2,132
2,207

6,129
6,447
7,054
6,433

2,884
4,483
4,700
3,879

997
995
1,016
1,064

1,463
1,476
1,455
1,579

678
766
837

1,166
1,324
1,279
1,335

3,084
3,212
3,317
3,481

2,245
2,472
2,639
2,658

P4,346

p3,021
(NA)

pi,162
(NA)

pl,559
()

p948
(NA)

pl,295
(NA)

P3,483
(NA)

p2,56l
(NA)

1973
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

1975
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

(NA)

• BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers

Year
and
quarter

Securities investments

Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.

561. U.S. investments
abroad

565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

564. Foreign purchases
of U.S. securities

570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net

575. Banking and other
capital transactions, net

(Mil. dol.)

1972
First quarter .,
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

-221
216
156
229

1,121
335
1,315
760

1,059
961
718
1,769

476
318
-203
28

-747
-837
-993
-1,311

-923
365
-1,121
-1,518

371
583
990
711

2,065
1,025
539
1,339

1,718
489
1,173
675

-30
111
216
462

-910
-571
-1,567
-1,551

-2,096
-580
-152
-3,050

1,177
1,700
-1
-653

745
1,572
1,828
3,123

692
440
204
-663

646
313
304
726

-1,294
-670
-930
-1,487

-7,019
-7,616
-1,783
-4,047

P326
(NA)

P937
(NA)

p604
(NA)

p2,033
(NA)

P-1,439
(NA)

P-2.336
(NA)

1973
First quarter .,
Second quarter
Third quarter.,
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.




JULY 1975

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Defense Indicators

Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month

600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

602. Federal
expenditures,
national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

264. National
defense purchases

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
(Mil. dol.)

621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

648. New orders, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions

(Mil. dol.)

1973

-11.2

2^9.1

260.2

75.0

6,840
7,337
7,361

1,631
1,838
1,704

1.62
1.63
1.80

2,824
2,899
2,947

April
May
June

-7.4-

255.0

262.4

74.0

6,739
7,269
7,069

1,349
1,730
1,633

1.90
1.79
1.96

2,568
3,171
2,897

July
August
September...

-1.7

261.8

263.4

73.3

7,203
7,039
6,260

1,483
1,676
1,099

1.18
1.90
1.34

2,106
3,276
3,222

-2.3

268.3

270.6

75.3

7,671
7,443
6,794

1,788
1,771
1,149

1.83
2.12
1.45

3,176
3,515
2,850

-2.8

278.1

281.0

75.8

7,527
7,348
7,186

2,077
1,708
1,642

2.18
2.06
1.46

3,378
3,ia
2,677

-3.0

288.6

291.6

76.6

7,883
7,302
7,663

2,040
1,330
1,412

1.53
2.08
1.75

4,343
2,881
3,440

-1.9

302.8

304.7

78.4

8,177
8,199
7,781

1,919
1,692
1,842

1.38
3.23
1.68

3,494
4,153
3,502

294.7

319.3

84.O

7,603
8,138
8,228

1,446
2,349
1,431

1.40
2.35
1.67

4,161
3,777
2,532

338.5

84.7

7,^09
7,508
8,223

1,424
1,509
2,349

1.64
2.15
1.70

3,693
3,987
2,817

P355.3

P85.4

7,95.2
8,235
(NA)

1,425
1,850
(NA)

I.64
rl.66
pi. 68

4,122
3,926
(NA)

January
February
March

October
November . . .
December . . .
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June

,
,
,

July
August
,
September..,
October
November . . ,
December . . ,
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June

-54-4

(NA)

(NA)

July
August
,
September..
October
November . . ,
December . . ,
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.

BCII

JULY 1975



89

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

J J P R I C E MOVEMENTS
Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product

Year
and
month

211. Index

(1958=100)

Consumer price indexes

211c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

782. Food

All items
781. Index®

781c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(1967=100)

(Percent)

783. Commodities less
food

784. Services©

(1967=100)

781c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

1973
January
February
March

. .

7.4

127.7
128.6
129.8

0.5
0.6
0.8

6.8
7.3
7.9

129.2
131.0
134.0

121.0
121.4
121.9

135.7
136.2
136.6

8.1

130.7
131.5
132.4

0.7
0.5

0.6

7.5
10.0
8.7

136.2
137.9
139.8

122.4
122.8
123.3

137.1
137.6
138.1

8.4

132.7
135.1
135.5

0.3
1.7
0.3

8.9
9.6
9.7

139.9
148.8
148.0

123.5
123.9
124.2

138.4
139.3
140.6

9.1

136.6
137.6
138.5

0.8
0.8
0.7

11.4
10.0
11.7

149.0
150.9
152.1

125.0
125.9
126.8

142.2
143.0
143.8

U.I

139.7
141.5
143.1

1.1
1.1
1.0

11.3
11.8
12.3

154.6
157.4
158.2

128.4
129.8
131.5

144.8
145.9
147.1

12.2

143.9
145.5
146.9

0.7

1.0
0.9

11.8
11.8
12.1

158.3
159.7
I6O.3

132.9
134.2
135.8

148.0
149.5
150.9

13.8
...

148.0
149.9
151.7

0.8
1.1
1.2

12.7
12.5
12.2

159.4
162.2
I64.8

137.5
139.3
140.8

152.6
154.2
156.0

12.6

153.0
154.3
155.4

0.9
0.9
0.8

11.7
10.4
8.5

166.9
168.8
170.4

141.8
142.9
143.8

157.3
158.7
160.1

7.7

156.1
157.2
157.8

0.6
0.5
0.3

7.8
6.6
6.6

171.9
171.4
170.3

144.5
145.6
146.4

161.3
162.6
163.2

158.6
159.3
160.6

0.6
0.4
0.8

170.9
171.8
174.4

147.5
147.8
148.5

I64.I
164.5
165.7

145.1

April
May
June

148.0
...
151.0

July
August
September
October
November
December

1541Z

1974
January
February
March

159!5

April
May
June

. .

July
August
September
October
November
December

164.2

169 \e
. . . .
. .

174.7

1975
January
February
March

. .

April
May
June

178.0
p6.0
pl80.6

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
•••Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4-th month.

90




JULY 1975

ItCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

'PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.

Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month

750. All
commodities®

58. Manufactured
goods®

751. Processed
foods and feeds

752. Farm
products

Industrial commodities
55. I n d e x ®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

55c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)

55c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

1973
January
February
March

124.5
126.9
129.8

121.6
123.6
125.7

131.7
135.5
140.4

143.3
147.5
158.1

120.0
121.3
122.8

0.2
0.9
1.1

8.0
8.6
9.3

April
May
June

130.5
133.2
136.0

126.4
128.3
130.1

141.5
145.9
150.7

161.7
170.2
178.4

124.2
125.3
126.0

0.8
0.8
0.7

9.4
8.6
7.8

July
August
September...

134.3
142.1
139.7

129.1
133.4
131.8

145.5
164.9
156.3

172.1
211.8
201,8

126.1
126.7
127.4

0.2
0.6
0.7

10.0
12.3

October
November . . .
December . . .

138.7
139.2
141.8

132.0
132.8
135.1

154.5
154.8
155.7

193.6
189.9
189.9

128.5
130.1
132.2

1.1
1.5
1.8

16.5
19.8
24.9

January
February
March

146.6
149.5
151.4

138.6
140.9
143.6

161.1
162.6
161.5

200.6
200.4
193.5

135.3
138.2
142.4

2.0
2.0
2.8

28.5
31.1
32.2

April
May
June

,

152.7
155.0
155.7

146.0
149.3
151.5

161.4
160.0
156.0

187.9
180.8
164.5

146.6
150.5
153.6

2.6
2.5
2.2

34.4
35.6
30.8

July
August
September..,

161.7
167.4
167.2

156.4
161.8
162.4

166.9
177.9
177.0

180.8
186.8
184.4

157.8
161.6
162.9

2.9
2.5
1.0

27.9
23.8
19.5

October
November . . ,
December . .

170.2
171.9
171.5

165.2
166.2
166.9

185.0
193.8
188.2

193.1
194.0
186.1

I64.8
165.8
166.1

1.5
0.8
0.4

14.0
9.5
7.6

January
February
March

171.8
171.3
170.4

168.2
168.0
167.8

185.3
180.3
175.7

177.9
170.2
168.1

167.5
I68.4
168.9

0.5
0.4
0.1

4.7
3.4
3.4

April
May
June

172.1
173.2
173.7

168.7
169.5
170.1

181.9
180.3
178.1

179.3
184.5
181.7

169.7
170.3
170.7

0.1
0.2
0.4

8.4

1974

1975

July
August
September..,
October
November . . ,
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
•'•Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes
are placed on the 4th month.

ItCII

JULY 1975



91

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

IWAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1
Year
and
month

Real earnings

Current dollar earnings

740. Index

(1967=100)

740c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

740c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

741.Index

(1967=100)

741c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

741c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

859. Real
spendable
avg. weekly
earnings of
nonagri. prod,
or nonsupv.
workers

(1967 dol.)

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy
Current dollar compensation

745. Index

(1967=100)

745c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

745c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

1973
January
February
March

142.3
14-2.7
U3.5

0.3
0.2
0.6

5.9
5.9
5.9

111.2
110.8
110.5

-0.2
-0.4
-0.3

-0.8
-1.3
-1.9

96.42
96.32
96.17

145.3

April
May
June

144-4
144c8
146.0

0.7
0.2
0.8

6.4
7.1
7.7

110.4
110.1
110.4

-0.1
-0.3
0.3

-1.0
-2.6
-1.0

96.34
95.83
95.89

147.3

July
August
September...

146.8
147.7
148.9

0.6
0.6
0.8

7.2
7.8
7.2

110.6
109.4
110.0

0.2
-1.1
0.5

-1.5
-1.6
-2.3

96.23
94.78
V5.4O

149.7

October
November . . .
December . . .

149.6
150.3
151.1

0.5
0.5
0.5

6.7
6.9
6.5

109.6
109.3
109.1

-0.4
-0.3
-0.2

-4.2
-2.9
-4.7

94.58
94.43
94.22

152.7

8.7

January
February
March

151.7
152.6
153.6

0.4
0.6
0.6

6.5
7.8
9.6

108.3
107.8
107.4

-0.7
-0.5
-0.4

-4.4
-3.5
-2.4

92.75
92.52
91.77

156.0

9.4

April
May
June

154.3
156.1
158.2

0.4
1.2
1.3

9.5
10.2
11.1

107.2
107.3
107.8

-0.2
0.1
0.5

-2.0
-1.4
-0.9

91.16
91.62
91.55

160.2

July
August
September..,

158.7
160.2
161.9

0.3
1.0
1.1

11.7
10.3

3.9

107.2
107.0
106.9

-0.6
-0.2
-0.1

-0.9
-1.9
-2.9

91.18
90.90
90.78

163.9

October
November . .
December . .

163.1
163.9
165.1

0.7
0.5
0.7

9.3
8.9
8.7

106.7
106.3
106.2

-0.2
-0.4
-0.1

-2.1
-1.3
0.3

90.31
88.79
89.08

167.7

166.0
167.2
168.8

0.5
0.7
1.0

r7.0
7.3
p8.0

106.0
IO6.3
107.0

-0.2
0.3
0.7

-0.7
rO.6
pl.3

88.08
87.69
87.59

171.6

168.8
169.8
pin. 6

0.0
0.6
pl.l

106.3
106.6
plO6.9

-0.7
0.3
pO.3

r87.46
91.54
P91.18

pl74.5

11.2
7.5
5.6
7.9
6.8
7.3
8.2

1974

11.2

9.8

9.7
10.0
9.6
P9.0

1975
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June

9.6

p7.0

July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-qiiarter changes are placed
on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle
month of the 3d quarter.

92




JULY 1975

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.

Year
and
month

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.

746. Index

(1967=100)
1973
January . ,
February .
March . . .
April
May.
June

748. First
year average
changes

Real compensation
746c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

i\4.6
112 '.8
...

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

7.1

5.6

770.Index

(1967=100)

770c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

1.8

114-1

0.6

113.7

7.8

-2.0

115.1
7.2

114.8

6.1

r-1.4

-1.3

6.3

r-2.3

-2.6

113.6

-2.1

113.4

-2.2

111.6

-3.7

111.0

r-1.7

110.3

P-1.3

109.4

0.8

5.6
115.0

-1.7

111.0

-2.1

6.7

-0.4

rill.4

5.3
115.8

0.6

r-2.8

October..
November
December

749. Average
changes over
life of
contract

858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm

n

112.0

July
August
September.

Output per man-hour, total
private economy

Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries©

1974
January . ,
February .
March . . ,

p6.9

-3.1

112.7

p9.2

-0.1

April
May.
June

llO.'l
•••

July
August
September.
October..
November
December

-7.6

P5.9

rll0.2

112.8

pll.

-3-2

p7.9

pH.6

-1.9

-5.1
110.8

p-0.6

108.7

-1.9
112.2

r-0.9

rlO9.5

0.1

P7.5

-2.1

1975
January .
February ,
March . . ,
April
May.
June

rlO9.2

rl.6
•. •

P13.0

pl.O

P9.3

P7.5

rO.O
108.9

rllO.8
P 7.7

p2.0
pill.3

P109.8

July
August
September.
October..
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

KCII

JULY 1975




93

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

841. Total

(Thous.)

842.

Employed

(Thous.)

Unemployment rates
843. Unemployed

844. Males
20 years and
over

(Thous.)

(Percent)

845. Females
20 years and
over

(Percent)

846. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

847.

White

848. Negro
and other races

(Percent)

(Percent)

1973
January
February
March

86,964
87,703
88,043

82,633
83,276
83,686

4,331
4,427
4,357

3.4
3.4
3.4

5.2
4.9
4.9

14.3
15.4
14.2

4.5
4.5
4.4

8.B
9.0
8.9

April
May
June

88,296
88,325
88,791

83,877
84,021
84,487

4,419
4,304
4,304

3.3
3.3
3.2

4.8
4.6
4.9

15.3
15.0
14.0

4.4
4.4
4.3

9.3
9.1
8.9

July
August
September...

88,902
88,816
89,223

84,679
84,582
84,983

4,223
4,234
4,240

4.8
4.9
4.8

14.3
14.3
14.3

4.2
4.2
4.2

9.2
8.9
9.3

October
November . . .
December . . .

89,568
89,852
90,048

85,452
85,577
85,646

4,116
4,275
4,402

3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.2

4.5
4.7
5.0

14.1
14.6
14.4

4.1
4.2
4.4

8.4
8.8
8.4

January
February
March

90,465
90,551
90,381,

85,800
85,861
85,779

4,665
4,690
4,602

3.4
3.5
3.4

5.1
5.1
5.0

15.5
15.0
15.0

4.7
4.6
4.6

9.2
9.2
9.2

April
May
June

90,324
90,753
90,857

85,787
86,062
86,088

4,537
4,691
4,769

3.5
3.4
3.5

14.0
15.6
15.8

4.5
4.7
4.8

S.S
9.3
9.0

July
August
,
September..,

91,283
91,199
91,705

86,403
86,274
86,402

4,880
4,925
5,303

3.6
3.S
3.9

5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.7

16.2
15.3
16.7

4.8
4.9
5.3

9.4
9.4
9.9

October
November . .
December . .

91,844
91,708
91,803

86,304
85,689
85,202

5,540
6,019
6,601

4.3
4.6
5.3

5.6
6.6
7.2

17.1
17.4
18.1

5.5
5.9
6.4

10.9
11.6
12.5

January
February . . .
March

92,091
91,511
91,829

84,562
84,027
83,849

7,529
7,484
7,980

6.0
6.2
6.8

20.8
19.9
20.6

7.5
7.4
8.0

April
May
June

92,262
92,940
92,340

84,086
84,402
84,444

8,176
8,538
7,896

7.0
7.3
7.0

8.1
8.1
8.5
8.6
8.6
8.1

20.4
21.8
19.2

8.1
8.5
7.9

13.4
13.5
14.2
14.6
14.7
13.7

1974

1975

,

July
August
September..
October....
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.

94




JULY 1975

ItCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Q | ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP

Year
and
quarter

Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)

206. Potential GNP

205. Actual GNP

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

770.9
786.6
798.1
814.2

806.8
814.7
822.8
830.9

+35.9

832.8
837.4
840.8
845.7

839.1
847.3
855.7
864.1

+6.3
+9.9
+14.9
+18.4

830.5
827 o l
823.1
804.0

872.6
881.2
889.9
898.7

+42.1
+54.1
+66.8
+94.7

780.0
P779.4

907.6
916.5

+127.6
p+137.1

+28.1

+24.7
+16.7

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.

Special Note on Potential GNP
The following note has been provided by the Council of Economic
Advisers regarding potential GNP.
The idea of potential GNP has had a long history. Its measurement by
the Council of Economic Advisers was started in the Economic Report of
the Council in 1962. Since that time, it has been used as a standard with
which to evaluate the past and future behavior of the economy.
Potential GNP purports to measure what the economy would produce
if all of its resources were fully utilized given the technology and
institutional arrangements that have existed at the time. "Fully utilized" has
never meant the kind of utilization that would prevail, say, under wartime
conditions but rather the utilization that could be expected under conditions
of reasonable price stability. This has always been less than complete
utilization. Under ordinary circumstances, some unemployment is present
because some workers are in the process of changing jobs; similarly, some old
plants are idle because market conditions do not permit them to operate
profitably. In the past, this degree of utilization has been reflected in an
overall unemployment rate of 4 percent. The rate of inflation associated
with that degree of unemployment has typically not been specified.
Furthermore, notions of what constitutes reasonable price stability can vary
over time.
Potential GNP is not something ordinarily observable. In practice, the

JULY 1975




Council in 1962 made the judgment that the economy was operating at 100
percent of potential in mid-1955. Since that time potential GNP has been
estimated to grow at differing annual rates, as follows: 3.5 percent from the
first quarter of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 1962, 3.75 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1962 to the fourth quarter of 1965, 4 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1969. At the beginning of
1970, the Council estimated that after the fourth quarter of 1969 potential
was growing at an annual rate of 4.3 percent, reflecting a rise of 1.8 percent
in the potential labor force, a 0.2 percent decline in annual hours of work,
and a 2.7 percent rise in output per manhour at potential. Drawing on a new
study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("The United States Economy in
1985", Monthly Labor Review, December 1973), the Council has lowered its
estimate of potential growth after 1969 to 4 percent per annum, reflecting
the following component changes: labor force, 1.8 percent; annual hours,
—0.3 percent; output per manhour, 2.5 percent.
Although potential is presented in the chart on page 61 and the table
above as a point estimate each quarter, it is clearly subject to a margin of
error and consequently, as with any measure of capacity, should be used
with considerable caution. There are uncertainties regarding both the growth
and the level of potential. It cannot be reasonably assumed that potential
grows in each year or quarter at the same annual rate. Some qualifications
about the measure of potential appear on pages 64-65 of the 1974 Economic
Report.

95

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

ANALYTICAL RATIOS

Year
and
month

850. Ratio,
output to capacity,
manufacturing

851. Ratio,
inventories to sales,
manufacturing
and trade

852. Ratio, manufacturers' unfilled
orders to shipments,
durable goods
industries

853. Ratio,
production of
business equipment
to consumer goods

(Percent)

(Ratio)

(Ratio)

(1967=100)

854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income

(Ratio)

860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed

(Ratio)

857. Vacancy rate
in total rental
housing @

(Percent)

1973

1.46
1.45

2.59
2.61
2.67

90.1
90.8
90.7

0.075

0.839
0.800
0.827

5.7

April
May
June

1.46
I.46
1.48

2.73
2.79
2.89

91.4
92.0
92.9

0.078

0.815
0.844
0.851

5.8

July
August
September...

1.45
1.46
1.47

2.89
3.01
3.06

92.6
95.0
95.1

0.080

0.923
0.886
0.843

5.8

1.45
1.44
1.49

3.00
3.04
3.14

95.2
95.7
96.6

0.095

0.890
O.836
0.771

5.8

1.47
1.47
I.46

3.13
3.16
3.15

98.1
99.2
99.3

0.089

0.708
0.686
0.718

6.2

p8o!l

1,46
1.47
1.50

3.21
3.22
3.30

99.5
100.4
100.0

0.074

0.761
0.730
0.724

6.3

1.47
1.48
1.51

.38
.44

101.0

p79.4

0.726
0.695
0.578

6.2

3.45

102.7

0.066

P75.7

1.54
1.59
1.68

3.30
3.38
3.57

103.0
103.7
103.0

0.086

0.505
0.425
0.356

6.0

rp68.2

1.68
1.66
1.70

3.50
3.U
3.48

101.8
100.4
r99.0

0.075

0.289
0.282
0.261

6.1

1.65
Pl.63
(NA)

r3.29
3.44

r97.1
r94.9
P93.3

pO.106

0.259
0.248
pO.298

6.3

January
February
March

p82.8

October
November . . .
December . . .

p82.6

1974
January
February
March
April
May
June

July
August
September..,

October
November . .
December . .

99.2

1975
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June

(NA)

July

August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by (§). Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.

96




JULY 1975

ItCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Leading Indicators
Year
and
month

D1. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing
(21 industries)

D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)

1-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

9-month
span

D11. Newly approved
capital appropriations^
The Conference Board
(17 industries)
1-quarter
span

3-quarter
span

D34. Profits,
mfg., FNCB
(about 1,000
corporations)
1-quarter
span

D19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks
(65-71 industries) 2 ®
1-month
span

9-month
span

D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
span

9-month
span

1973
January
February
March

35.7
95.2
59.5

April
May
June

50.0
28.6

90.0
85.7
91.4

82

94

62

33-3

65.7
6I.4
77.1

26.8
14.5
19.6

26.5
19.1
25.0

84.6
84.6
76.9

92.3
92.3
92.3

50.0
28.6
19.0

26.2
61.9
71.4

6I.4
54.3
48.6

82.9
88.6
85.7

53

76

61

21.7
14.7
15.4

19.1
17.6
30.9

61.5
80.8
76.9

92.3
92.3
92.3

July
August
September...

57d
28.6
83.3

33.3
19.0
21.4

48.6
48.6
52.9

82.9
62.9
68.6

59

82

55

66.2
41.9
88.2

23.9
I6.4
26.9

73.1
65.4
46.2

92.3
69.2
76.9

October
November . . .
December . . .

16.7
54.8
50.0

16.7
16.7
9.5

65.7
55.7
34.3

82.9
74.3
68.6

59

59

60

89.0

35.8
53.7
35.8

46.2
69.2
69.2

100.0
84.6
76.9

January
February
March

21.4
50.0
42.9

28.6
11.9
7.1

65.7
57.1
57.1

82.9
85.7
71.4

47

50.7
91.0

28.8
10.6
6.1

84.6
69.2
53.8

69.2
76.9
61.5

April
May
June

7.1
92.9
57.1

7.1
0.0
19.0

57.1
65.7
47.1

74.3
68.6
60.0

59

9.7
27.3
39.4

6.1
10.6
4.6

61.5
38.5
53.8

61.5
46.2
46.2

July
August
September...

14.3
50.0
35.7

9.5
0.0
47.6

60.0
45.7
40.0

45.7
14.3
14.3

59

41

58

4.5
7.6
1.5

38.5
46.2
42.3

46.2
23.1
23.1

October
November . . .
December . . .

40.5
11.9
28.6

0.0
4.8
9.5

45.7
18.6
17.1

11.4
5.7
18.6

.24

P 29

40

66.2
70.8

4.6
3.1
10.8
23.1
38.5
70.8

19.2
23.1
7.7

23.1
23.1
23.1

16.7
16.7
45.2

rO.O
P9.5

48.6
51.4
34.3

rl7.1
P25.7

P53

62.0

86.2

53.8
42.3
38.5

69.2
61.0
70.8

46.2
38.5
61.5

7.5
13.4

1974

53

59

65

58

...

85.8

9.2

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September...

64.3
r52.4
pSl.O

77.1
r42.9
P55.7

(NA)

(NA)

48

(NA)

95.4
93.8

3

3

11.5
15.4
15.4

61.5

October
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on 2d
month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components
for most of the indexes shown. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® .
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
. ,. ,
lm, .
1 T h l s
.
.
„
is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written
ml_
n
permission from The Conference Board. Due to a reclassification of 76 companies by industry, data beginning with the 4th quarter
1974 (1-quarter span) and 3d quarter 1974 (3-quarter span) are not strictly comparable with earlier data. Figures on the previous
basis for the 4th quarter 1974 and 1st quarter 1975 (l-quarter span) are 29 and 53, respectively; and for the 3d and 4th quarters,
1974 13-quarter span), they are 35 and 29, respectively. 2Based on 71 components in January 1973, on 69 components through April
1973, on 68 components through October 1973, on 67 components through April 1974, on 66 components through September 1974 and on
65 components thereafter. Component data are not shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency. aAverage for
July 1,8, and 15.

BCII

JULY 1975



97

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

• • D I F F U S I O N INDEXES-Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators

Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month

D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
1-month
span

9-month
span

D41. Number of employees
on nonagriculural payrolls
(30 industries)

D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)

D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®

D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)

1-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

9-month
span

1973

67.0
74.5
3.6.2

68.1
66.0
74.5

70.0
86.7
83.3

86.7
81.7
85.0

79.2
91.7
62.5

83.3
79.2
83.3

95.5
97.7
95.5

100.0
95.5
95.5

87.0
76.1
65.2

100.0
97.8
95.7

April
May
June

53.2
36.2
57.4

38.3
68.1
57.4

70.0
65.0
81.7

83.3
78.3
68.3

50.0
77.1
54.2

79.2
77.1
79.2

95.5
90.9
84.1

95.5
95.5
95.5

30,4
69.6
56.5

100.0
100.0
87.0

July
August
September

63.8
46.8
44.7

57.4
8.5
8.5

68.3
70.0
51.7

80.0
86.7
85.0

70.8
70.8
62.5

79.2
70.8
54.2

75.0
91.0
77.3

90.9
95.5
95.5

73.9
34.8
73.9

69.6
47.8
91.3

October
November
December

46.8
72.3
2.1

38.3
29.8
23.4

86.7
75.0
60.0

88.3
71.7
68.3

45.8
62.5
45.8

45.8
35.4
45.8

79.5
86.4
90.9

95.5
90.9
90.9

65.2
56.5
43.5

87.0
95.7
87.0

53.2
83.0
40.4

19.1
14.9
34.0

48.3
48.3
51.7

56.7
53.3
50.0

35.4
37.5

64.6

39.6
33.3
52.1

90.9
95.5
88.6

95.5
95.5
95.5

78.3
60.9
78.3

91.3
78.3
95.7

34.0

12.8
55.3
44.7

48.3
56.7
51.7

45.0
43.3
46.7

47.9
70.8
50.0

54.2
41.7
41.7

91.0
84.1
81.8

95.5
90.9
90.9

47.8
65.2
34.8

91.3
87.0
82.6

75.5
48.9
28.7

0.0
6.4
8.5

51.7
56.7
48.3

45.0
36.7
20.0

39.6
37.5
52.1

31.3
12.5
10.4

81.8
77.3
68.2

77.3
72.7
72.7

95.7
52.2
60.9

52.2
45.7
65.2

46.8
8.5
53.2

2.1
4-3
2.1

41.7
13.3
15.0

20.0
16.7
13-3

33.3
20.8

12.5
12.5

8.3

r8.3

72.7
68.2
65.9

72.7
68.2
68.2

43.5
21.7
52.2

82.6
60.9
r60.9

January
February
March

55.3
29.8
55.3

6.4

13.3
13.3
20.0

10.0
13.3
P13.3

16.7
27.1
r20.8

rl2.5
rl2.5
p29.2

63.6
63.6
59.1

68.2
72.7
72.7

73.9

12.8

r76.1
p65.2

April
May
June

44.7
66.0
46.8

January
February
March

.

.

1974
January
February
March

. . . .

51.1
56.4

April
May
June
July
August
September

.

.

October
November
December
1975

r35.O

r63.3
P51.7

r52.1
r47.9
p60.4

70.5
63.6
68.2

67.4
34.8
r67.4
r78.3
P52.2

July
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d
month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires
no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® .
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
1
Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.

98




JULY 1975

BCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change
1975

1974
Diffusion index components
November

January

December

February

May3

April

March

JuneP

D1. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(Average weekly hours)

All manufacturing industries

39.5

39.4

39.2

38.8

Percent rising of 21 components

(12)

(29)

(17)

(17)

a.9

/.l.B + 42.1
38.1 - 37.9
37.3 - 36.4

o

38.8

r39.1

39.0

39.1

(45)

(64)

(52)

(81)

Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

38.5
37.7

- a.2

o a.2
- 37.8

+ ra.3

+ a.4

-

a.o
38.9
37.5
40.2
39.2

+
+

+ 40.3
- r39.6

+
+
-

+
-

+ 38.6
- 36.3

+ 36.5

+ r38.8
+ r37.2

- 40.2
- 40.2

- 39.6
- 39.9

39.2
37.8

Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries

a.2

a.o

41.7

U.I

Fabricated metal products..
Machinery, except electrical

40.6
42.1

- 40.4

- 39.7

4-2.3

- a.8

- a.2

+ 39.8
- 40.8

39.7
+ r40.9

-

39.5
40.5

Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment

39.4
39.5

39.5
39.5

- 39.4
o 39.5

- 39.0
- 39.1

+ 39.2
- 39.0

+ r39.4
+ r40.4

-

39.1
39.4

39.4
39.5

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries...

39.9
38.0

39.8
38.1

- 39.5
o 38.1

- 38.9
- 37.6

39.0
37.7

+ r39.1
+ 38.2

39.1
38.3

39.4
38.6

Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures

40.0
37.4

40.0
37.7

-

39.9
37.3

39.9
37.6

40.3
39.1

-

39.9
r38.4

39.9
36.9

39.9
37.9

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

37.6
34.4

36.6
34.2

-

36.0
34.0

36.1
33.6

36.8
33.7

37.8
34.3

38.9
34.4

39.1
35.0

Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing . .

a.3

a.2
37.3

+

a.i
37.5

40.5
37.2

4-0.4
36.9

r40.4
36.8

40.9
36.7

a.5

37.4

Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and coal products .,

a.2

a.o

- 40.4

r40.3
r40.9

40.7

42.3

40.6
42.0

40.5

42.2

-

a.3

40.7
40.4

Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c.
Leather and leather products

39.8
36.6

39.5
36.1

o
-

39.5
35.7

38.7
35.3

r39.1
r36.5

39.5
36.7

39.5
37.1

- 40.9
- 40.5

40.2
39.6
39.6
40.3

Nondurable goods industries:

a.9
38.6
35.1

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS'NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 1
(Millions of dollars)

All durable goods industries

- 43,182

Percent rising of 35 components

- 37,842

- 36,062

(17)

(19)

(49)

+ 37,023

- 35,492

(51)

(34)

36.8

2

+ 38,751

+ 39,185

(77)

(43)

+ 39,542
(56)

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

-

7,863
5,226

-

6,297
4,387

- 5,071
+ 4,720

+ 5,378
+ 4,784

-

4,961
4,449

+ 5,395
+ 4,813

+ 5,863
+ 4,844

+ 5,982
- 4,713

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery

- 7,559
- U,926

-

7,426
4,439

- 6,837
+ 4,919

- 6,805
+ 4., 931

-

6,759
4,662

+ 6,946
+ 5,316

+
-

7,117
5,183

+ 7,280
- 5,153

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

-

-

8,050
7,243

+

+ 8,030
- 7,095

-

7,705
6,956

+ 8,506
+ 7,775

+
-

8,526
7,652

+ 8,649
+ 7,765

9,775
7,833

7,253
7,262

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

•'-Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
2

JULY 1975



99

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1974

1975

Diffusion index components
November

January

December

February

April

March

May

June

July

D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2
Industrial materials price index (1967=100)

-

196.4

-

183.4

-

180.1

181.1

+

182.3

+

186.4

-

184.2

-

173.2

-

171.2

(Dollars).
Percent rising of 13 components .
Copper scrap
Lead scrap
Steel scrap
Tin
Zinc
Burlap
Cotton, 12-market average
Print cloth, average
Wool tops
Hides
Rosin
Rubber
Tallow

(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(U.S. ton).
(metric ton).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(yard).
(meter).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(yard).
(meter).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(100 pounds).
(100 kilograms).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).

(8)

(23)
-

0.469
1.034
- 0.106
0.234
-112.821
124.363
+ 3.681
8.115
+ 0.393
0.866
- 0.260
0.284
- 0.450
0.992
- 0.586
0.6a
- 2.092
4.612
- 0.197
0.434
- 42.056
92.717
- 0.279
0.615
+ 0.146
0.322

0.431
0.950
0.098
0.216
86.762
95.638
3.508
7.734
0.391
0.862
0.235
0.257
0.413
0.910
0.576
0.630
2.088
4.603
0.186
0.410

(54)
+
+
+
+
+
-

a.438
91.354

+

0.307
0.677
0.117
0.258

+

(42)

(38)

0.397 + 0.399
0.880
0.875
0.099 - 0.091
0.201
0.218
75.758 o 75.744
83.508
83.493
3.700 + 3.723
8.157
8.208
0.394 - 0.391
0.869
0.862
0.236 + 0.239
0.261
0.258

0.400
0.882
0.086
0.190
72.206
79.593
3.514
7.747
0.379
0.836
0.227
0.248

0.388 + 0.401
0.884
0.855
0.579 - 0.577
0.633
0.631
1.967 1.802
4.336
3.973
0.175 - 0.166
0.386
0.366
42.181 - 42.097
92.992
92.807
0.288 + 0.294
O.648
0.635
0.123 - 0.119
0.262
0.271

O.4O6
0.895
0.583
0.638
1.860
4.101
0.201
0.443

a.782

92.113
0.287
0.633
0.108
0.238

(46)
+
+
+
+
+
+

0.399
0.880
0.081
0.179
84.830
93.508
3.382
7.456
0.376
0.829
0.210
0.230
0.424
0.935
0.590
0.645
1.849
4.076
0.227
0.500
40.972
90.327
0.291
0.642
0.116
0.256

(62)
+
+
+
+
+

0.384
0.847
0.073
0.161
76.961
84.834
3.298
7.271
0.378
0.833
0.198
0.217
0.431
0.950
0.581
0.635
2.143
4.724
0.255
0.562
39.068
86.129
0.275
0.606
0.123
0.271

+
+
+

+
+
+
+

(627

0.366
0.807
0.050
0.110
70.675
77.905
3.391
7.476
0.383
0.844
0.200
0.219

O.4O8
0.899
0.051
0.112
58.448
64.427
3.297
7.269
0.387
0.853
0.184
0.201

0.438
0.966
0. 592
0.647
2.044
4.506
0.259
0.571
30.461
67.154
0.289
0.637
0.127
0.280

0.4A8
0.988
0.581
0.635
2.119
4.672
0.269
0.593
30.614
67.492
0.316
0.697
0.124
0.273

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
Percent rising of 30 components ,
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products . . .
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing . . .

- 78,404

- 77,690

(13)
85
491
404
531
1,068
1,103
1,494
1,299
1,249
324
332

+

-

- 77,227

- 76,708

- 76,368 o r76,349

(15)

(13)

(13)

(20)

86
481
390
516
1,035
1,059
1,467
1,242
1,176
318
316

85
463
371
499
1,011
1,011
1,440
1,208
1,126
314
310

85
449
360
486
969
992
1,404
1,152
1,060
305
305

85
452
354
478
940
976
1,380
1,135
1,100
298
301

(35)
o
+
-

85
r450
357
477
r914
r975
rl,354
rl,118
rl,099
r297
r300

+r76,439
(63)

+ 76,464
(52)

o
85
83
+
r466 +
468
+
r36l
359
+
r478
474
903
r895 +
965
r970
- rl,323 - 1,304
- 1,102
+ 1,137
r294 +
295
r303 +
306

1,132
rl,143 - 1,138
1,125 + rl,130
1,125
62 o
62
62 o
66
63
65
781
r776 +
r756 +
760
737 +
740
995 + rl,012 + rl,022 + 1,041
1,032
1,009
476
478
489
478 504
r474
627
r631
645
639
654
635
658
656
r567 +
568
580
602
568 617
r563
589
114
118
rl20
119 117
123
rll8
124
446
r4U +
431 +
449
517
477
493
r436
216
220
r2l8 +
212 +
237
223
231
r214
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised;
" p " , preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for July 1, 8, and 15.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The industrial materials price index is not
seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products

100




1,160
62
827
1,112
528

- 1,150
+
63
797
- 1,059
516

JULY 1975

ItO

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1975

1974
Diffusion index components
November

December

January

February

March

April1*

Mayr

JuneP

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS-Con. 1
(Thousands of employees)
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate . . .
Service
Federal Government
State and local government

693
3,861
4,697
4,283
12,765
4,183
13,721
2,746
11,822

662 +
3,798
4,668
4,267
- 12,645 o 4,182
+ 13,734 +
2,738
+ 11,850 +.

D47.

-

All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components2
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals .
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals . . . .

.

121.7

700
3,789
4,607
4,242
12,621
4,173
13,747
2,733
11,897

+
+
o
+

702
3,596
4,561
4,222
12,610
4,164
13,771
2,733
12,052

706
3,486
4,512
4,211
12,588
4,157
13,754
2,732
12,076

703
3,475
4,511
4,213
12,581
4,163
13,754
2,729
12,130

709
3,469
4,497
4,207
12,606
4,160
13,775
2,730
12,173

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1967=100)

-

109.6 + 110.0

117.4 -

113.7 -

111.2 - rliO.O - 109.9

(21)

(8)

(17)

(27)

(21)

(52)

(48)

(60)

121.0
128.2

108.6
124.1

107.2
118.2

-

102.1
113.7

r98.1
rll2.9

95.0
112.3

89.4
111.3

86.1
111.3

135.
121,

126! 7 111.5 78.9
139.1 -

123*6
106.6
77.1
134.2

9!3
rlO4.3
r8l.O
130.6

116 '.0
104.0
84.8
131.1

114-0
103.6
87.0
130.0

111.1
103-4
89.7

+

142.3

132! 5
116.3
83.6
139.5

-

118*8
105.2

116! 9
101.3

115! 3 99.9

107.8
99.6

rlO4*2
r99.8

104.2
102.0

102.1
106.9

-

120*5
136.9

120.'4
135.7

Il6! 6

110.6
128.0

1O6.%7
rl29.7

105.9
128.5

106.3
128.5

+

112.8 100.1
74.7

102.9
98.0
69-7

95.6
94.0
66.1

93.3
92.6
66.7

r96.8

100.1
88.1
68.0

93.9
104.1
(NA)
69-4

-

124*3 110.0 -

116.1
109.8

114*3
104.1

109.5
104.7

104
rlQ4.

105.6
100.2

105.3
101.4

+
-

148.3 127.0 155.7 -

143.1
125.8
148.9

139.0
126.8
135.4

134-6
123.7
132.0

rl33.
rl20.
1-126.

133.0
118.8
128.0

+
-

125*4 +
103.8

125.7
96.2

121.2 + 122.3
104.7 + - 108.4

rl21[
102.

122.6
115.9

134.5
119.2
131.7
121.0
121.5
(NA)

67.6 +
106.4 -

85.3
103.6

111.3 +
102.9 +

117.5
106.0

1-117.4
rlO6.1

112.2
106.7

119.6
105.7

136*8 109.8 -

134*7
106.4

133.8 109.0 -

131*1
106.1

rl25'4
105.1

125.8
104.7

117.2
101.9

93-

+

713
3,417
4,495
4,196
12,662
4,164
13,798
2,716
12,204

o
128.9 -

129.8
103.8
(NA)
(NA)
118.0
(NA)
(NA)

96.1
(NA)
(MA)
(NA)
103.6
(NA)
101.9
132.8
135.4
121.5
(NA)
122.0
122.6
(NA)
128.4
105.7
102.5
(NA)
(NA)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

^Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

JULY 1975



101

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1974

1975

Diffusion index components
November

December

January

February

March

April

May

June

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)

-

All retail sales
2

Percent rising of 23 components . . .
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise)
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores

44,469 + 44,821 +
(22)

(52)

9,740 3,715 +
4,627 499

732
450
766 +
307

Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores

1,240
629
1,465
427

Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores

6,254
665
3,397
1,402
884

+

9,610
3,721
4,608
415

45,955 + 46,819
(74)

+
+
+

9,945
3,784
4,497
485

-

45,926

(67)

720
473
844
323

746
518
828
344

1,193
617
1,412
431

1,237
625
1,424
471

1,235
633
1,415
477

6,668
690
3,399
1,461
886

6,971
725
3,465
1,436
871

7,580
745
3,465
1,449
882

+
-

48,285

(78)

(52)

r9,846
r3,898
r4,825
r476

10,063
3,902
5,099
481

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

739
506
820
310

r746
r5O6
r8l9
r337

785
505
847
363

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

1,199
660
1,355
464

+ rl,244
+
r686
+ rl,415
+•
r468

1,212
713
1,509
463

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

6,598 + r7,063
738
r737
3,497 + r3,532
1,488 - rl,455
903
r884

7,470
748
3,550
1,488
896

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(35)

9,925 + 10,058
3,821
3,828 4,852
4,743 +
456
489

684
444
800
303

r46,712 + r47,951 +
(67)

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 3
(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries

Percent rising of 22 components .
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables
Nonmetallic minerals products

Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment.
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products.

166.2
(68)

166.9
(66)

168.2
(64)

168.0
(64)

167.8
(59)

168.7
(70)

169.5
(64)

170.1
(68)

165.8
136.9
163.4
199.7
187.2
182.5
175.6
168.9
152.7
135.4
138.9
140.7

165.4
137.7
164.3
196.7
181.8
182.9
176.7
170.9
153.1
136.5
140.7
142.4

164.7
138.8
168.5
199.4
178.8
185.4
178.3
172.6
158.1
138.1
140.2
145.5

169.3
139.1
170.3
200.5
176.1
189.4
178.7
173.9
158.6
138.7
141.5
146.4

169.6
138.5
170.8
200.6
173.9
189.9
180.0
174.8

174.9
138.5
173.0
201.1
172.2
188.4
180.1
176.1

183.0
138.6
173.1
200.6
171.1
188.8
179.4
177.6

181.0
139.0
173.3
199.4
169.1
188.6
181.7
178.2

158.5
139.1
143.0
146.8

160.3
139.5
143.0
147.3

161.4
140.1
142.9
147.5

161.5
140.4
143.1
147.5

189.7
170.8
107.3
134.2
133.6
166.9
172.9
238.2
148.5
144.5

188.2
165.7
107.3
132.3
133.7
167.2
174.0
238.5
149.4
143.2

186.4
162.0
103.8
130.7
133.8
169.8
176.0
242.3
149.6
142.1

182.6
158.0
103.8
129.3
133.6
169.8
178.1
240.7
150.0
141.7

177.3
156.0
102.0
121.7
133.3
170.0
181.8
242.3
149.7
143.2

179.4
158.1
103.5
121.7
133.0
169.7
182.4
243.6
149.4
147.5

179.0
162.6
107.0
123.0
132.2
169.8
182.1
246.1
148.9
147.7

179.7
164.3
107.5
124.6
132.
169.8
181.
252.2
148.6
148.7

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
, preliminary; and "NA", not available.

•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.

2

3

102




JULY 1975

ItCII

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

CONSUMER PRICES
135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®

136. France,
index of
consumer
prices®

138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices®

137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices®

47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production

123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production

122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production

126. France,
index of
industrial
production

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

127
128
130

122
123
124

139
142
142

120
123
124

150
151
146

145
148
148

131
133
134

124
125
126

142
142
144

121
121
122

144
153
151

141
142
143

150
151
155

135
136
137

127
126
127

143
139
142

123
123
123

153
153
150

132
133
134

145
146
147

154
156
160

138
139
141

127
128
126

144
146
146

125
123
119

153
154
148

161
163
165

135
137
137

150
152
153

167
173
174

144
147
149

125
125
125

148
149
150

113
115
119

157
157
153

140
143

170
173
175

138
139
139

156
158
159

179
179
181

151
154
157

125
126
126

148
147
147

121
121
122

rl54
157
rl56

148
150
152

146
147
148

176
176
177

139
140
140

161
163
165

184.
185
189

160
163
168

126
125
126

146
146
145

rl23
123
121

161
161
152

153
154
155

149
151
152

182
185
188

141
142
142

167
168
169

193
194
195

171
174
176

125
122
117

145
143
142

121
121
rll6

152
rl46
rl42

January
February
March

156
157
158

153
154
155

192
196
200

144
144
145

171
173
174

196
196
198

178
181
181

114
111
110

139
140
rl39

119
rll9
rll6

144
rl43
139

April
May
June

159
159
161

156
157
159

207
216
(NA)

146
147
148

176
177
(NA)

203
205
(NA)

183
185
(NA)

110
rllO
pllO

139
P138
(NA)

Pll5
(NA)

P139
(NA)

781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices®

133. Canada, 132. United
Kingdom,
index of
index of
consumer
consumer
prices®
prices®

1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

January
February
March

128
129
130

125
126
126

144
144
145

126
127
128

136
136
137

138
140
143

April
May
June

131
132
132

128
129
130

148
149
150

129
129
130

138
139
140

July
August
September...

133
135
136

131
133
133

151
151
152

130
130
131

October
November . . .
December . . .

137
138
138

134
135
136

155
157
158

January
February
March

140
142
143

137
138
139

April
May
June

44
146
147

July
August
September...
October
November . . ,
December . . ,

Year
and
month

1973

1974

1975

July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

ItCII

JULY 1975



103

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Con.

Year

and
month

125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production

128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production

121.OECD,1
European
countries,

index of

STOCK PRICES

127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production

industrial
production

19. United
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common

143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices©

142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices©

146. France,
index of
stock
prices©

145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices®

148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices©

147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices©

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

stocks®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

Revised

1973
January
February
March

150
156
151

186
186
193

142
144
142

124
123
123

129
124
122

146
145
143

182
168
164

174
173
185

139
136
142

387
364
363

83

April
May
June

153
152
154-

190
196
197

142
144
145

132
134
138

120
117
114

142
135
135

168
167
171

191
196
190

142
130
128

344
339
338

97
109
125

July
August
September...

147
154
156

197
200
201

144
146
147

141
131
139

115
113
115

141
144
146

161
156
154

183
179
180

120
119
116

355
351
333

118
105
107

October
November . . .
December . . .

155
156
156

205
207
203

148
146

141
139
138

119
111
103

153
148
134

159
151
126

183
166
166

118
112
106

325
313
285

109
108
97

January
February
March

153
152

202
202
199

147
147
147

148
143
144

104
102
106

139
141
146

126
124
116

173
167
153

110
110
108

293
308
304

106
108
112

April
May
June

152
152
153

196
200
193

148
150

148
145
147

101
98
98

136
123
122

112
112
103

145
134
134

112
112
108

305
303
306

116
106
97

July
August
September..

150
149
151

194
188
188

148
146
147

144
131
145

90
83
74

118
113
101

94
82
74

135
125
106

103
104.
99

295
270
261

90
76

October....
November . .
December . .

147
150
143

185
182
173

145
143
rl37

rl38
130
124

76
78
73

101
97
93

71
65
58

114
113
117

96
97
101

239
245
255

74
79
72

January
February . . .
March

140
139
rl44

166
165
167

rl37
rl37
137

129
131
126

79
87
91

103
112
109

69
99
109

177
134
144

105
112
120

250
271
284

72
80
82

April
May
June

P134
(NA)

pl69
(NA)

pl33
(NA)

pl28
(NA)

92
98
101

112
115
rpll6

115
126
127

155
142
rpHO

124
119
114

290
298
297

p80
p78
p76

plO2

pH9

pl20

p!45

pl20

P293

P 69

84
93

1974

,

1975

July
August
September..
October....
November . .
December . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.

^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
^See ftNew Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

104




JULY 1975

ItCII

APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1975

Series
Jan.

5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations 1

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Nov.

103.6 138.9

109.5

92.7

88.6

79.9

86.4

115.0

83.5

74.2

83.6

108.5

93.6

107.0

107.3

105.6

104.8

105.4

90.9

92.9

101.4

97.0

83.6

99.2

98.2

97.3

107.5

Dec.

Oct.

143.9

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
manufacturing 2
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index,
manufacturing 3

Feb.

99.0

99.2

99.8

99.9

100.8

101.1

100.9

101.1

100.4

99.9

98.9

98.6

-939

-1206

-349

-114

287

910

752

885

-36

-315

-427

510

98.7

102.5

107.9

107.9

104.4

103.8

103.3

101.5

93.0

89.5

98.0

89.8

100.4

100.8

100.4

100.3

99.8

99.8

99.2

99.5

99.5

99.9

99.9 100.3

98.9

98.8

99.8

101.0

101.2

100.9

101.0

100.5

100.0

99.6

98.9

99.0

616. Defense Department obligations, total

107.8

91.5

91.0

92.9

81.6

129.8

113.5

107.9

98.9

104.7

92.6

87.3

621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement

133.1

104.0

84.9

80.5

62.0

164.0

72.8

88.9

98.1

112.3

107.0

91.4

96.6

83.3

93.2

70.7

69.1

175.6

113.9

104.4

103.2

107.2

90.8

90.6

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies1 4
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing 3
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding

625. Military prime contract awards in U.S.
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 5

18

-13

3

NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., rather than by the source agency. Seasonal adjustments
are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in Business Conditions Digest whenever they are available. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1

Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
This series is derived from seasonally adjusted components; it is further adjusted by these factors to remove residual seasonal variation.
4
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are
computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program.
5
1-quarter diffusion index; factors are placed in the first month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed and these factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11
variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
2

3




105

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Quarterly

Monthly
Year

Annual
Jan.

Feb.

65.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Nov

Oct.

IQ

Dec.

II Q

PEKCENT CHANGE IN TOTAL U. S, KONEV SUPPLY (DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY—C.I)1
(ANNUAL RATE/ PERCENT)

AVEKACbE

III Q

IV Q

FOK PtR.ioa
•" •

2.19
-2.12
0.00
6.46
4.11
4.87
0.94
0.93

6.56
-6.36
0.00
4.28
5.12
1.94
5.65
0.93

8.70
-3.20
1.08
7.47
2.04
2.91
2.61
-5.57

6.4«
-2.14
2.1ft
5.30
4.07
3.87
1.87
10.2ft

4.3U
-1.07
-2.15
4.22
4.06
4.62
0.00
1.85

1.07
2.14
-1.08
5.?6
5.06
2.36
0.93
3.70

4.28
1.07
-2.16
4.19
5.04
3.83
0.93
3.6b

4.2b
-1.07
-l.Ob
2.09
R.03
6.6d
-0.93
1.84

-1.
-1.
0.
5.
b.
2.
0.
b.

06
07
00
21
98
85
93
50

4.
-3.
1.
2.
9.
3.
0.
5.

2b
21
Oft
07
92
79
OC
46

-2.
-3.
2.
3.
6.
2.
0.
1.

12
22
16
11
69
d3
93
82

6.35
2.66
0.00
-3.53
9.3b
-0.84
1.66
1.61
4.77
3.07

• H .12
0.00
-0.86
6.?.0
2.53

-2.69
1.77
O.fid
2.64
5.0b
-0.84
2.48
3.22
3.16
3.81

2.6<?
2.65
0.00
4.40
1.66
1.68
3.31
2.41
3.94
1.52

6.27
-1.76
0,83
4.3*
b.O?
-3.3ft
4.1?
0.00
4.7?
7.59

-1.78
1.77
-o.efc
7.8b
2.50
0.84
2.46
0.80
5.48
3.77

3.57
0.00
0.66
0.00
5.83
5.89
0.62
-1.60
4.ft8
8.28

0,00
-2.6b
C.86
6.07
-3.31
5.02
2.46
-1.60
0.76
5.98

1.78
4.42
-?.63
3.4b
-?.49
2.50
4.09
-0.80
3.10
6.69

1 . 78
0 . 88
- 2 . 63
b . 16
- 3 . 33
0 . 00
4 . 07
4 . 02
5 . 42
4 , 44

-2.
2.
-1.
6.
-0.
-0.
4.
4.
8.
5.

66
64
76
6b
63
63
37
60
47
16

2.
2.
-3.
1.
-2.
0.
2.
3.
-3.
C

67
64
b2
70
51
00
43
19
06
73

3.67
9.11
-0.66
5.78
7.14
10.92
4.34
3.06
5.16

1.46
4.17
12.32
5.75
6.51
-3.42
10.80
11.70
4.67

3.65
4.85
8.81
5.09
4.12

2.91
9.66
-4.04
5.70
4.69
9.07
9.03
7,48
6.51

2.18
-0.68
12.15
11.97
4.09
b.63
13.70
3.47
13.4?

6.52
1.37
10.02
9.98
2.91
2.80
8.86
6.43
13.72

4.32
-4.10
9.28
6.81
3.46
4.47
5.69
10.82
3.62

2.15
-1.37
6.56
6.77
-1.16
9,46
3.09
7.31
-0.45

8.60
6.87
7.19
7.96
2.90
11.04
3.06
9.69
-1.35

8.
-4.
6.
6.
2.
2.
3.
7.
4,

4.
0.
3.
10.
3.
4.
1.
7.
12.

24
69
68
88
46
37
02
16
60

6.
2.
4.
8.
0.
4,
1.
14.
9,

34
06
51
39
00
35
02
24
35

1947...
1946...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

3.18
-3.23
3.24
5.16
3.91
-0.94
1.66

1955. . .
1956...
1957...
1956...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
3974...
1975...

4 ! 16
1.61
?.36
3.06

9'.63
11.59
0.47

54
10
50
69
69
74
07
69
06

102. PERCENT CHANGF IN MONEY SUPPLY PLUS TIME DEPOSITS AT COMMERCIAL dANKS (M2
(ANNUAL PATF, PERCENT)

6.4S
-2!l4
0.36
5.66
3.39
3.<37
l.bfc
2.1*

3.?o
0.71
-1.44
3.8b
ft.04
0.31
3.07

0.3o
-2.S*
l.G*
3.4*
7.60
3.1*
0.6?
4.27

3<

93
46
00
77
65
6t*
77
lb
44
31

2.39
O.b9
0.00
b.b4
3.07
-0.2&
3.30
1.07
4.71
4.29

1.7o
O.b9
-0.2*
3.17
0.01
4.47
2. Ho
-1.3.5
?.Fb
6.93

0.60
2.05
-2,o«
4.b7
-2.2?
-0.2*
3,7 C
4.00
3.61
3.44

2.1b
1.25
-0.73
3.70
1.62

93
04
82
54
92
74
e. 2fc
e. 78
3 . 43

3.67
3.45
b.Oa
9.22
3.90
b.83
10.b3
5.79
11.22

5.02
0.47
7.ft6
1.1b
1.74
H.jiP
3.9^
9.27
0.51

6.37
-0.45
4, 9f6.65
2.1?
3.0?
1.70
9.70
6.67

4.5b
2 , 3o
6,3o
7.65
3.42
5.13
6.11
8.39
5.96

1!
0.
1.
5.
-1.
2.
2.
3.
3.
2.
6.
6.
5.
5.
5.

4 , (•', ft

-1.42
-O.?7
4.41
f.,46
3.7b
1.09

2 . (• v

3!o6
1.47
3,fta
4.51

AVERAGE FOP PtRIOu

3.'23
-1.63
2.44
3 # c?
4.47
1.42
3.46

3.36
0.00
0.00
6.49
2.35
5.94
2.13
3.45

5.87
-4.84
0.00
3.23
3.90
2.96
6.39
3.44

7.51
-2.43
1.63
6.44
2.33
3.69
3.b3
-0.69

5.80
-1.6?
2.4a
5.60
3.6*
4.41
3.5?
10.30

4.12
O.OC
-0.81
3.19
3.87
5.13
1.40
3.41

1.64
1.62
-0.P1
3.18
6.17
3.65
2.81
6.11

6.57
1.62
-1.63
2.38
5.37
5.09
?..6O
6.06

5.71
-0.61
-0.81
0.79
8.41
7.24
1.40
2.02

1.
-0.
0.
3.
b.
3.
3
b,

62
81
00
16
31
60
49
37

4.
-1.
0.
2.
9.
5.
2.
4.

67
62
61
37
07
74
09
68

0.
-2.
1.
3.
6.
3.
2.
2.

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959. • •
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

5.98
1.30
4.45
-1.24
7.55
-1.14
4.97
8.40
8,89
4.64

7.27
0.00
2.53
14.29
0.58
-4.56
8.26
7.82
5.39
5.54

-1.31
2.59
4.42
9.83
3.45
-1.14
2.73
9.32
6.3b
4.60

3.29
3.23
1.89
9.14
4.02
3.43
6.b5
8.22
7.26
4.12

4.5o
-0.64
3.77
7.8ft
4.00
-1.14
7.05
2.5*
6.7ft
6.21

0.00
3.22
1.25
10.81
2.65
2.86
4.85
5 O'l
ft. 7?
7.25

3.27
1.29
3.76
4.76
5.12
8.55
4.83
3.04
6.21
8.11

0.00
0.00
3.12
7.71
-2.P3
7.92
4.61
1.52
5.22
B.Ob

3.26
5.14
0.62
3.53
-0.57
6.74
4.80
4.04
5.67
9.33

1
1
1
4
-2
4
b
6
6
6

95
24
11
27
47
31
06
00
62

-0.
3.
1.
6.
1.
b.
6.
8
10
6

b5
19
24
44
14
b7
34
OC
75
33

2.
2.
0.
2.
-1.
3,
1,

196b...
1966...
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971.. ,
1972...
1973...

5.23
9.5o
6.80
6.52
7.53
3.37

9.03
6.32
12.39
8.53
5.61
-?.14
13*.O7
7.02

5.94
11.35
5.16
6.74
4.33
10.6?.
12.19
8.37
7.85

4.6*
b.43
14.67
9,3Q
3 , on
6.6?
13.40
6.31
12.03

9.26
3.47
13.04
6.98
4.61
7.78
11.93
10.92
11.69

6.35
2.31
11.63
6.93
-2.45
11.30
5.78
10.59
5.24

7.46
4.22
9.94
10.63
-3.07
13.2b
4,96
10.07
6.96

10.71
6.8V
8.80
10.74

1K42
9.36

6.83
5.50
10.76
6.44
4.35
8.25
17.59
11.93
5.40

11
1
9
10
0
a
7
9
9

84
14
09
00
92
07
bO
64
48

9
2
6
12
3
7
7
8
11

3(
26
24
79
0'
12
72
63
97

9
5
6
9
0
9
6
12
10

13." 11
6.bO
10.63
4.54

77
OH
66
80
57
83
24

2

1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

as

\'. i

-1.
-1.
4.
4.
3.
1.
1.

00
44
63
lb
75
57
76
00

-0
-0
4
3
4
3
3

54
54
Ob
3V
4b
31
4b

5.cl
-1.35
1.09
b.08
3.36
4.41
2.82
4.34

4.64
O.ftl
- 1 • t »i
?• I'd

oO
55
00
33
70
33
58
6 9b
- 0 46
6 97

3
1
3
7
3
-2
5
8
6
4

9e
30
80
63
8b
?fc
32
51
88
93

P .03
7 .13
9 9V
7 .16
5 .83
3 .16
16 . 5 2
12 . 1 4
7 .26

23
69
21
dl
61
67
69

45
b8

t #

5.33
2.34
4,74

2.1*
-1.02
0.61
2,6^
7.0"
4.30
2.79
4,02

-0.66
0.07
3.54
5.11
4.62
2. ?1
4.14

2.63
1.94
2.30
9.27
3.6?
1.72
6.1b
b.2<?
6.92
6.b3

2.1*
2.14
2 . SO
5.33
O.a7
7.74
4.31
2.fc7
5.7u
fi.Po

1.30
2.34
0.63
4,29
-0.V4
4,46
4.41
7.67
6.10
7.31

2.52
1 .^3
2.3b
6.63
1.76
2.91
5.17
6,08
6.40
6.Hi

6.62
6.75
10.96
8.37
4.01
6.34
12.bl
9.20
10. b2

6.04
4.47
10.19
9.50
-1.12
12.5b
5.7b
10.73
5,r>*

10.12
3.0^
7.1*
10.67
I.b3
6.49
7.97
10.37
10.6rt

8.40
b.35
9.bo
6,90
2.56
8.14
10,6d
10.61
8.51

(•. ftb

1974...
1975...
103. PERCENT CHANGE IN MONEY SUPPLY PLUS TIME DEPOSITS AT BANKS AND NON-tA,>jK
(ANNUAL RATE/ PERCENT)

3 )3

INSTITUTIONS

AVERAGE FOP PcPICl)

m

" |

» • •
• *!
•. •
...

...
:::
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971 . . .
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

1.58
7.14
8.77
10.73
6.89

2.86
-0.39
8.97
8.71
6.0b
7.15

5.70
1.97
5.19
9.68
8.32
6.52

5.27
5.12
7.38
8.92
8.90
6.48

6.4ft
2.35
8.44
5.11
d.b?
9,09

4.62
4.70
6.92
b,78
6.14
6.73

6.t;-C
8.96.52
5.11
7.7t
9.52

6.56
9.93
7.27
6.40
7.13
2.17
15.71
l?.7O
10.65

8.50
6.06
11.32
7.46
5.87
-1.38
17.49
14.16
8.45

7.06
5.28
9.78
6.33
5.04
6.32
17.41
13.21
6.99

6.50
8.01
7.34
6.29
4.62
8,64
14.36
10.56
8.20

b.6H

8.6b
3.22
12.10
7.93
4.39
7.76
13.67
12.84
11.76

8.2S
2.22
11.52
6.6C
-0.60
10.4]
9.46
13.0]
5.96

13.65
d.4?
3.20
lb!23
10.49
11.18

This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the con
This series contains scattered revisions beginning with 1962.
This series contains revisions beginning with 1959.

2

3

106




1.19
9.29
6.49
b.OJ
7.11
9.1"

1.99
7.68
6.4b
6.35
7.07
9.9b

0 .79
6 .49
6 .77
9 .30
9 .16
7 .90

7.4C
3 4*"
io!o^
9.32
-1.39
12.ec
9,0t
13.62
5.2*

9.9d
5.90
8.60
9.2b
?. 79
13.0b
9.93
13.17
4.43

10 . 4 2
2 .20
6 .54
8 .76
1 .39
9 .73
10 . 2 3
12 . 0 0
b .42

2*.

1 .58
5 ,2d
4 93
8 .18
3 .01
7 .78

30
3 .17
6 .69
10 .97
2 ,b6
9 .63
10 .15
11 . 0
10 .49

7 ,43
6 .09
b .99
8 .6?
1.b8
9 .02
10 , d 7
13 . 0 6
10 . 2 7

2
6
7
9
10
9
•

9

7b:
6C
2:
6]

1 .05
7 .1C
9 .Ob
9 .03
6 .8b

5.52
4.06
7.5d
6.94
8.52
8.10

.Ob
7 .09
9 .46
6 .73
6 .01
2 .37
16 . 8 7
13 . 3 6
8 .7C

7.00
5.07
11.03
7.b5
4.07
7.6o
14.42
11.30
10.36

B.tb
t. <-' 9
b ,70
7.3*

1.71
6.20
o.bo
8.90
7 ,b°
6.31

4,09
6.92
7.6b
6.12
8.20

P.bH
3.^o
10.0-?
8,39
C.?7
1'/ . 0 *
9.50
13.27
? .'-id

9.05
3.e?
7.07
9.45
1.6*
9 ,:>3
10.4?
12.02
9.73

6.16
4.9o
9,40
b.03
3.0b
7.^2
12 , f• 0
12.49
8.30

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly

Annual

Year
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

55.

52.6

52.7

52. t

1947!!!
1948...
1949,.,
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...

68.2
75.8
77.9
74.6
86.6
84.9
84.0
35 1

68.6
75.4
77.2
74.8
87.1
34.9
84,0
84 9

69 .'2
75.4
76. fi
74.8
87.1
84.ft

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...

•35.6
89.5
93.0
93.7

86.0
89.6
93.2
93.4

84.3
84 9

95 ".7
05.2

95*. 6
95.2

85.9
89.9
93.1
93.4
95,2
95.fc
05.2

«5.3

95.2

95.1

Qtl

7

(Jh

O

May

June

July

in DEX OF WHOLESALE °PICES/ INDUSTRIAL
(1967=100)

1945...

1959...
I 99660
1
1 .. .. ..

Apr.

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

II Q

III Q

COMMODITIES®
AVERAGE FOK PERIOD

52.9

53.0

53.1

53.1

53.2

53.2

53.4

52.7

69! P.
76.2
74.4
75.9
86.4
H3.6
rtu.7

70.3
76.9
74.1
77.1
86.0
83.5
fib.3

71.2
77. e
74.3
78.6
«5.3
8J.9

72.0
70.1
74.3
80.4
85.3
84.1
B5.2

72.7
76.2
74.3
61.8
85.1
b3,9
65.1
85 0

73.6
7«.4
74.3
62.9
65.0
83.«
85.G
65.3

74.6
70.3
74.4
84.8
85.1
83.9
65.1
65,3

68.e
75.5
77.3
74.7
86.9
84.6
84.1
85 0

75.9
75.0
75.4
86.7
83.9
84.4
85.0

ol.v
90.4
93.0
93.1

90 .'3
93.0
93.1

86.5
90.2
93.4
93.3

87.3
91.C
Q
3.6
93.7

86.1
91.4
93.6
93.8

88.4
91, P
93.5
93.9

8£,7
92.3
9J.5
94,2

69,0
92.7
93.7
94.5

85,8
89.7
93.1
93.5

85.9
90.3
93.0
93.3

P.7.J
90.9
93.5
<-J.o

95.6
95.1

95.5
94. t\

95*. 2
94.6

95.2
94.6

95.2
94.6

95,0
94.7

9b.1
94.5

95,0
94.7

95.0
94.9

Q5.6
95.2

95.3
94. h

95.1
•<!»«•« fa

95.1

95.1

94.9

95.1

C

95.1

95.5

9b. 6

95.2
95.8

94.6
95.2

95.0

05.1

97 1

95 9

101I1

99!b
101.9
1C4.9
108.6
112.b
116.4
121.4

9f.!u
99!7
102.4
10*.?

09 ,'0
lf-oic
in;?.*,
106.1

52.8
54 <*
69.%
75. e
75.?
74.c
87.C
84..'
84.1

52..Q
^ ^ ">
6^!7
75 .0
74, Q
75. a
66.7
'''3.9

8*.O
90.3
93.1
93.2

IV Q

52.9
55.4
69!B

53.1
59 ^
7l',2
77.6
74.2
78.7
35.3
H3."
Pb.3
£•.4 9

1962...
1964...
1966!!!
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974
1975.'!.'

99,3

99.7

ni.u
104.3
108.3
112.2
115.9
120.0
135 3

102.0
104.9
108.6
112.5
116.5
121.3
138 2

5 ^ - C . PERCENT CHA

96 C
97*.fi
99.7
102.2
105.4
lO8.fi
112.?
116.8
122.a
142 L

98.1
99.(1,
5 02.4
105.5
109.3
113.3
117.3
124.2

9b.5
9t,7
l'J?. 1 *
105.*
109.6
113.7
117.*.
12S.1

98.7
9Q.7
102.4
105.6
109.9
113.9
117.0
126.0
103.6

1.7
-0.4
0.4
2.2
-0.2
0.1
0.0

-0.5
-0.9
0.2
0.6
0.0
0.0
-0.2

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

0.3
0.5
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0

0.5
0.2
0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0

19*5...
1906...
1967...
196b...
1969...
.1.970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

0,0
0.2
0.2
C.3
0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
2.0

0.0
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.9
2.0

55-C. PERCENT CHA

99.7
102.4
105.7
110.1
114,5
llo.l
126.1
157 6

1955
195b!!!
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960.. ,
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
19*b..,
1967...
1968...
19*9...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

O.H

-0.2
0.0.2

-0.2
0,*
0.1
O.C
0.1
O.C
0.1
0.O.C
O.C
O.C
O.C

-0.1
0.1
0.2
O.O
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.1
1.1

2.a

o.s

1.0
-0.9
0.6
0.?
-0.1
0.0
0.3

0.*.
-0.7
1.1
O.o
-0.1
0,h
V.?

-0.4
0.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.1

0.3
0.6
0.0
-0.2
o.i
0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.?
0.1

0.0
0.3
0.1
0.1
n,r
-C.3
-0.?
0.1
<>.->
0.0

0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
O.o
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
-0.1

0.1
0.4
-0.1
0. 2
0.1

c. ?
0.u
O.P
C.0
0.1

0.3
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2

0.4

O.'X

0.?
0.2
0.8
2.6

0,4
0. -5
0. *
2. -

0.4

0.3
0.4

0.7
2.?

0.6
0.8
-0.5

99.1
100.5
103.3
107.1
111.2
115.0
118.8
126.5

99.2
100.6
103.4
107.4
111.3
114.9
119.1
130.1
lbc . 8

103.8
107.8
111.7
lib.3
119.4
132.2

109.6

113.6
117.6
125.2

92!?

7b . \
75.3
76.0
86.1
64.1
84.8
85 Q
86.9
90.5
9-J.3

94.2
9b. 0
94.7
94.7
95.0
95.*

95 3
95'.3
94.0
94. b
94.7

97 0
9rf!b

loo!?

ioo!o

103.*
107."

102.5
106.0
110.0
114.0
lW.y

llj.i

114.s
lib. 4
12b.7

53.0
by 0

us!].
11^. I

130.3

AVErtAliE FOh Frl* I CD
!!!
0.7
O.b
-0.2

1.0

-0.5
-0.1
0.7
0.0
O.O

-0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1

-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.2
2.9

-l!3
0.1
-0.4
-0.3
O.fc
0.7
O.C
0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0. J
o.i
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.1
0. L
0.1
O.b

0.4
O.b
2.5

0.8
0.1
-0.3
2 ,0
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.1

0.8
-0.1
-0.1
1.6
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
0.1

1.0
0.0
-0.1
' 1.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.3

1.1
-0.4
-0.1
2.0
-0.1
-C.I
0.0
-0.1

0!^
-o!b
0.3
1.0
-0.1
0.2
0.0

0.8
-0.7
0.9
CO
-0.1

0.7
0.v
-O.:>
1,7
-j.7
0.0

0,4

(,tU

0.2

* -0.1

0.8
0.4
0 ,0
0.1
-0.2
O.i
0.2
-0,1
0,0

0.4
0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.?
-0.1
0.2
0.4

0.3
0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0

0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.1
C.I
-0.1
0.2
0.1

0.3
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0

0. P.
0.3
0.1
0.0
C.I
c.o
-c.i
0. c0.1
0.c

0.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.7
1.0

0.0
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.1
0.2
1.1
1.5

0.0
C.O
0.3
0.4
0.3
O.b
0.4
0.3
1.8
0.4

0.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.1
C2
0.7
2.3

C.P
0.4
0.1
C.I
C.I

c.o

0.4

0.1
0.3
C .2
C.4
0,6
0.1
0.5
1.5
0.8

0.7
0.3
0.1
c.?
O.o
-0.1
o.c:
c. 0
0.0
0.1
0.1
o.i
o.>
0.2
c.J

1.0
-0.?
-0.1
1 .A

-o.>
-0.2
-O.i
0.1
0."*
0. u
0.0
0.2
0.0
- C l
I1).

(•

-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0

C.4

(!.?

0.?
0.3
0.4
0 . <•

0.3
0.3
O.H
2.4

0.4
0 . J>
O.O
2.1

0.2
0.3
l.r
0. V

0.4
-O.H
1.1
0.0
-0,1
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0,2
0.3
0. J
0.2
0.3
0.9
1.9

2
GES IN INDEX Of WHOLESALE PRICES, INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES, OVER 6-M
OMTH S K A, s

PERCFNT)

7.5
9,b

b.6

7.9

6.0

2.3
13.8

4.8
11.0

7.0
6.3

9.o
0 . e.

0.*
O.C

2.2
0.7

3.6
0.9

4.9
0.°

4,1
C, 7

2 b

18

2 t

2! 0
-0.4
2.9

l!7
-0.3
2.4

2 . *>
1 . P.
0.0

3. *
1.3
1. I

3.6
1.4
1.2
0. V

-5.4

2! 7
-0.8
2.8
-0.3
0.6
-O.i
0.3

-0.3
0.5
-0.4
0.4

-0.2
O.C
0.4
-0.4

-O.J

0.H
2.7
0.7
3.5
3.7
3.2
3.2
2.9
8.0
2b.3

1.2
2.6
0.8
2.7
3.6
3.2
2.a
3.0
8.6
31.1

3*,4
1.0
2.5
3.3
3.3
2.1
3.0
9.3
32.2




99.0
100,2
102,6
100.5
110,4
U5.0
U&.7
1?7,4

PtKCENT)

(CoMPOU'lUE-U AN,\IUAL <<ATE,

1947..,
194 4 . . ,
1949. • .
1950...
1951...
3 952. . .
1953,..
1954...

99.C
10C.C
102.5
106.1
110.2
115.1
118.5
126.7
161 6

73! 6
78,3
74.3
83.?
85.3
63.^
85.1
65.?

<GE3 IN INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES, OVER 1-MONTH SPA , s 2
(MONTHLY *£TE>

194b...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

99.0

5.1

53.3

h. «s

7.*

1?.?
-s. 5

-3.7

16.0

o!."5

0.7
0.0

.0.*
0.2

-O.t;
0.4
0. f
C.4

1.4
3.7
O.'i

2-.-)
3.5
1.9

1.?
3.1
1.7

-0.7
0.1

2.1

3.0
3.2
3.4
1.1
9.4
34.4

O.fi

1 . «•

?.Q
3.3
u.7
3. ?
^ . i'35.*=.

P.v
3.6
4.5
3,e
7, ^
30.r~

lb.5
-4.7
2.1
-0.1

AVEKAfcE f-0'-> FtHI'^D

3 8
4 ".6

10 3
2,2

12.B
-0.2

10.0
-3.3

16.9
-5.1

21.5
-5.1

2.3.1
-4.6

21.1
:.i

.0

2.2

5\2

+ .4

-ois

_(j , 9
?.?.
O.C

3*.$
-b'.l
2.7
0.1

2,3
4.3
2.1
-O.b
2.7

0.0

-0.2

1.3

1.2

0.4
1.5

1.7
0.6
3.3
3.4
5.0
4.4
3.1
4.1
16.5
14.0

1.5
0.8
3.4
4.1
4.2
4,0
2.6
5.2

-C.3

0.3

3.8
0.6
l.V
-0.1

4.3
0.5
2.0
0.0

-1.0
-0.2
1.3
1.1

-0.3

0.1
-0.4
0.7
1.6

0.3
-0.7

1.7
2.3
2.1
2.1
3.7
4.0
4.2
3.8

2.0
1.6
2.5
2.6
4.4
4.5
3.7
u a
.
10.0
23.8

1.4
1.0
2 ,9
3.0

i.;,4
27.9

1.1

4.6
4.9

3.J
4,3
12.3

v'.l
-6.3

2,2
0.5

0.0

1.0
1.7
0.5

9.2
-3.8
0.9
16.9
-2.0

2.1
-0.1

5

1 9 . «5

9.5

1.9
0.8
3.3
4.3
3.5
3.9
2.1
c.8
24.9
7.6

-0.3
C.4
-0.3
0.1
1.1
3.0
O.b
2.V
3.2
2.7
3.0
8,b

30.6

7.H

4 ". 1

1?'.^

lV.'c

-1.1
3. **
O.b

-1.1
t'. 7
-0.1

10.7
-?..<2 C.4
-2.-

. . •
...
4.b

14.3
0.2

-1.1
— 1 . "s

1.*

0,0

4.4

3'.-*

'•* , 1

6. J

3.3
1.6

3. t
0.7

-0,*:

0.1

2.3
0.?

-0.4
-0.4
o.s
1.3

O.'b
1.3

O.b
0.7

1.7
0.7
3.3
3.^

l.o
2.2
2.0

4.?

3*.7
3.6
3.4

1.5
-0.7
0.2
o.7
0. >
1.7
3.4

1.7
1.0

1.?

2.i

1.9
?.9
3.4
4.2
3.3
<?.<•
33.t

2,5
4.2
4 , :j
3.v
4.;-.
lC.i
?-j,7

i!i
1.1

O.C

-o!i

4.1
5.4
20,"
10,4

4,0

12.0
24. 0

107

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.
58.

June

May

July

Aug.

Sept

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

1955
1956!!!
1957...
1958...
1959...

69.5
77.5
78.0
74.7
87.2
85.8
*«4.3
85.«
38.1
92.1
93.7
94.3

72.4
79.5
74.9
79.8
86.5

93.7
9U.8

89 .7
93 .1
93 .8
94

90.3
93.3
93.6
94.6

71.3
76.9
76.9
75.0
87.9
85.4
84.4
85.6

71.3
77.3
76.1
75.1
87.6
85.0
84.3
85. B

85 8

85 7

92!4
93.4
94.4

92!4
93.6
94,6

85 ft
89.4
92.5
93.7
94.B

69.Q
92.6
93.7
94. *

69.6
9?.6

71.0
77.5
75.4
75.8
87.7
85.0
64. R

71.1
78. C
75.0
76.2
67.3
84.8
84.7

65.9

.a

bb.3

65.5
P5.8

73 .6
79 .6
74 .8
81 ,2
86 .3
85 .3
»5 .7

76 .1
76 .6
74 .6
85 .0
86 .1
84 .2
85 .4
85 .6

70
77 !o
77
74 !9
87 .7
85 .6
84 .3
85 .7

93. 3
94. 0
94. 4

87
91 ]6
93 .4
94 .2
94 .4

85 | 5
88
92 !3

74 .2
79 .0
74 .6

7o.0
76. 8
74. 5

8b .6

61 .9
86 .3
d4 ,9
85 .4
65 .3

82. 8
66. 1
84. 5
85. 2
85. 4

90 .9
93 .2
93 .8
94 .7

91 .2
93 .0
93 .7
94 .5

87
9l! 5

1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

94.9

ll'.l
94,9

94 • 9
94.7

94!?.

94.0

94 .1

94.1

94

.1

94 .0

94.

1

94 ,4

94.3
94.9

94.1

93,9
94,6

93.7
94.6

94.1

94.5
94.5

94 .7
94 .8

94.5
^4.7

94 ,4
94 .8

94 .6
95 .0

94. 6
95. 0

94 .6
95 .1

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...

95.4
97.8
99.7
101.4
104.3
109.0
ill.a
115.7
121.6
138.6

95.4
98.3
99.7
101.9

95.4
98.4
99.6

95.7
98.5
99.5
102.2
105.4
109.7
113.C
116.9
126.4
146.0

96.0
96.9
99.6
102.?
105. q
109.fi
113.5
117.4
12fr,3
149.3

96.5
99.0
99.9

96 .6
9V .3

96.7
99.7
1C0.1
102.7
1C6.5
110.6
114.9
118.5
133.4
161.6

,7
.7
.4
.0

96 .9
99 .6
100 .4
103 .2
107 .4
111 .2
114 .5
118 .8
132 .0
165 .2

97. 2
99. 5
100. 6

97 .6
99 .5
100 ,8
103 ,7
106 .1
111 .2
115 .1
120 .7
135 .1

1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

104.9
109.2
112.4
116.5
123.6
140.9

Annual

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PtHIOO

71 .5
76 .6
74 .7
78 .0
86 .9
84 .9
85 .6
8b .7

70.0
76.7
77.1
75.0
87.9
85.7
84.3
85.6

94.8

III Q

INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURED GOODS ®
.,(1967 = 100)

1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

II Q

102.1
105.2
109.4
112.7
116.7
125.7
143.6

9 4 . «s

102.5
106:3
110.1
113.8
117.8
130.1
151.5

100 .1
102 .y
106 .5
110 .7
114 .5
118 .3
129 .1
156 ,4

96
99
100
103

106 . 0
H O .8
H 4 .7
116 .8
131 .6
16* ,4

103.4
107.8
111.3
114.5
119.2
132.8
166. 7. 166 ,9

93 .6
94 .4

94
94 \\
94 , 5
94 . 1
94 .8

95 .4
98 .2
99 .7
101 . fc

104 . 6
109 .2
112 .3
116 .3
123 .6
141 .0

D58. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURED G O O D S — 2 ? MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES®
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)

71.1
77.6
75.5
75.7
67.6
84.9
84. 6
85.7

72.5
79.2
74.6
79.7
66.6
P5.2
65.6
65.7

75. 1

90.3
93.*

9l! 4
93! 2

93.6
94.7

94.
94. 4

90* 0
92! h
93. ^
94. 6

94.7
94.1
94.6
94.b
94.6

94 .7
94.
94 *4
9 4 . fc
95. 0

94. 7
94.
94, 4
94. 3
94,

76.
74. t
63. p
80. 2
84.
85. 3
85.

72! 3
7e.2
7b.6
76.
87. 0
£3. 1
85. 0
Bb! 6
6

92 ".6
93.7
94.8
94.fi
94.3
94 . 4
94.1
94.?
96.1
98.8
99.7
10?.3
105.8
109.9

113.4
117."
12*.3
148.9

100.*
102.9
106.6

97. ,
99. 5
100. h
103. 4
107.

110.7
114.7
118.3
131.4
160.2

111. 2
114. ?
119. fc
133. 3
I06. 1

96.7

96. 3
99. 0

100.0
102.c
10'3. 3
110. 2
113. d
117.
129. 2
154. 1

AVERAGE FOR F-thlOD

1945,. .
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

31.8
56.6
100.0
20.5
47!7

1955...
1956...
1957...
195fl...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

72.7
72.7
72.7
50.0
75.C
65.9
40.9
61.4
43.2
63.6

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

72.7
79.5
77.3

DS O .

2 5 . 0
2 7 . 3

ll'.l

47.7

50.0
79.5
50.0
31.8
79.5
36.4
36.4
40.9
34.1
61.4

68.?
72.7
61.4
40.9
61.4
43.2
56.6
45.5
43.2
47.7

52.7
40.9
56.8
36.4
65.9
25.0
31. P
5C.0
63.6
50.0

70.5
bO.O
59.1
68.?
63.6
43.2
50.0
47.7
65.9

52.3
75.0
72.7
84.1
75.0
77.3
75.0
90.9
97.7
95.5

65.9
72.7
54.5
68.2
75.0
72.7
72.7
79.5
95.5
88.6

72.7
70.5
47.7
75.0
84.1
68. 2
68.?
77.3
95.5

75.0
CJ6.4
59.1

61.4
75.0
H7.7
61.4
64.1
56 • 8
72.7

91.0

84.1

5?.3
68.?

9.1
59.1
31.A
15.9

38.6

13.6
7 9 . :>

6 8 . 2

6 1 . <t

79.5

7?!?
90.0
90.9

56.B

64.1

70 .5
90 .9
22 .7
93 .2
40 ,9
52 .3
70
59 !i
79 .5
70 ,b
6b .9
50 .0
59 .1
47 .7
59 .1

4u .9
47 .7
60 .2
50 .0
72 .7
61 ,4
6P .2
77 .3

90.9

75.0
43.2
100.0
29.5
54.5
59.1
63.6

75.0
66.2
65.9
56.6
61.4
43.2
61.4
38,6
63.6
*4.5
59.1
54.5
£3.6

61
8b .4
79 .5
75 .0

70.5
68.2
70.5
90.9
75.0
91.0

81

77 3

63. 3
78.6
« 0.9
97.7
36.3
3b.J

94 7
53 0
53 «
95
40 p

41 7

ii. b
79. 7
4b. 1
3d. 4

43.9

62.V

60 6

51! b

59 .6
74 *,2
58 .3
37 #c,
75 ,7
50 .0
40 ,<?
51 .5
39 ,4
59 .fc

63.7
5^.5
59.1
48.5
63.6

7 9 . f;

It

69.7
60.0

68

63 .6
75 ,7

69.7

56.8

77. 3
79.
84. 1

70 .5
54 c
90 ',9
61 ,4
72 .7

77.3
51.5
65.9

58.3
66.7
71 •*

8 2 . t*

74.3

4b". 5
84. 1
66. 4

68 .2
66 ,4
90 .9

75 ,7

71.2
8?.. 6
90.2

72.0
76.6
81.1

93 .2
68 .2
47 .7
90 .9
45 .5
36 .4

97. 7
50. 0
59. 1
9b.t
43. 2
4C.9

93 .2
40 ,9
54 .5
100 .0
31 .8

59 !i

6l! 4

3

61 .4

84 .1

70 .5
6b .9
40 .9
63 .6
b9 .1
38 .6
43 .?
40 .9
81 .8

77. 3
6a. 2

81 .8
72 ,7
5? ,1

70 .5
50 .0
52 .3
65 ,9
31 .8
61 ,4
36 ,4
61 .4
52 .3
61 ,4
47 .7
7b .0
75 .0
77 .3
77 . 3
30 .6
31 .6
77 .3

72 .7
70 .5
63 .6
72 .7
77 .3
68 .2
75 . 0
25 .0
63 .2
79 .5

90.9
29.5
47.7
95.5
15.9
59.1
45.5

86.4
25.0
63.6
95.5

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

72.7
86.4
68.2
36.4
77,3
63.6
40.9
56.*
29.5
72.7

59.1
86.4
68.2
29.5

1965...
1966...
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973.,.
1974...
1975...

81,8
68.6
63.6
95.5
31,8
79.5

86.4
95.5
68.2
100.0

77.3
90.9
100.0
95.5

6.8
59.1
34,1

79 . 5
40.9
34.1
50.0
40.9
72.7

79.5
77.3
R1.8
95.5
95.5
95.5




77.3
18.2
68.2
81.8
11.4
65.9
43.2

81.8
77.3

9.1

50. 0
5?.. 3

56. e
27. 3
45. 5
45. 5
65. 9
63. 6
7 0 . c,
63. 6

47 .7

61 ,4
50 .0
54 .5
54 .5
45 ,5
61 ,4
56 .8

73
26 !e
59 .1
75 .fc
29 . 0
60
38 .6

60

,C

81 ,1
12 .7
85 .6
96 .2

90.9

72.7
22.7
100.0
29.5
47.7

O5.9
59.1

77 .3
13 .6
100 .0
29 .5
40 .9
61 .4
61 .4

72.7

40 ,9
63 .6
77 .3

31.3
75.0
HI. 6
54.5

81 .8
31 .8
7 b .0
59 .1

61.8

81 .6
81 .6
72 .7
65 , v

70.5
36.4
5?.3

61
34 .1
45 .b

5 9 . 1

39.1
59.1

61 .4

7b.0
75.0
59.1
61.4
29.5
52.3
45.5
77.3
65.9

7 0 . *

63.6

.9

63.^

63.6

7? .7

95.5
50.0
15.9
61.4
43.2

100.0
27.3
27.3
63.6

68.2
86.4
72.7
31.8
79.5
36.4
38.6
54.5
54.5
63.6

70.5
61.*
7?.7
36.4

64.1

75.0
38.fc
31.8
45.5
47.7
59.1

56«j*
3 4 . 1

81.8
93.2
65.9
90.9
84.1
75.0
81.8
95.5
95.5
95.5

77.3
95.5
63.6
75.0
90.9
77.3
90.9
95.5
95.5
95.5

7 7 . 3
7 9 . *
4 5 . =

64.1
ll.#4
100.0
29.5

34.1

4 7 ! 7

.7

.7
90.9
84, 1
95.5
100.0
90.9

66!4

100.0
90.9

86 .4
7D .0
8t .4
90 .9

77 .3

5U.5

100 .0
70

47 \l
100 .0
36 ,4

75 .C

95. 5
47. 7
61. 4
100. C

25. 0
45. 5
52.
12.7
81.
70.
47. 7
70. 5

59 .1

4b 5

79 .5
72 .7

77 .3
, t)

,1
31 .6
50 .0
72
70 .5

'X

72.7

fll
7? ,3
77 .3

90.9

86 .6

72.7

95 .5
59 .1
52 .3
100 .0
22 .7
50 .0
54 .5

.4
79 .5
39 .1
72 .7
31 . ]

7^7

ei.e

37.1
46.2
47.7
57.6
51.5

53.0
62.1
« 0.9
60.0
3h,6
5 7 . »3

56,3

c,

60!

4

44 0
69 7
64 4

69.
6b! 9
57. 0
4V, 6
64. 2
42. 0
4e. 9
45. 5
56. 1
5o. b

70 5
60 0
60 3

65, 2
66. 0
60, 7

7? 7
I'D 0

72. 7
7o. 1

46 p
79 6
65 ,t

6b! 3
81. 6
3

5C
b9
55
40
47

r
1

3

1
7

72

84 .1

86,u
77'.3
6.R

•
!

54.6
66.2
10.6
66.7
26.0
27.3

88 .6
70 .5
56 .6
100 .0
38 .6
59 .1
59 • 1
63 ,9

DIFFUSION INDEX FOP INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES; MANUFACTURED G O O D S — 2 5 MA N U F A C T U R I N G INDUbT hi IPS®
(PERCENT RISI NG OVER 6-MONTH SPANS)

1948...
1949...
1950...
.1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

108

27.3
43.'?

70.5
29.5
70.5
86.4
45.5

90.9

b9.1
75.0

4O.*9

88.6

90.9
68.2
86.4
79.5
66.4
95.5

i)2.3
61.4
9.1
61.4

90.9
61.4
25.0
50.0
40.9
22.7
61.4
43.2
56.8
70.5
52.3
31.8
72.7
47.7
45.5
52.3
40.9
54.5

...
88! 6

72 ,7

6b

90 .9
40 .9
61 .4
IOC .0
18 .2
b9 .1

47 .7
63 .6
61 .6
66 .2
43 .2

77 .3

AVERAGE FO" PiH

!£

84
24 .2
59 . &
90 ,<,

11 , 4
61 ,4
40 ,<*
66 .7
86 ,4
69 ,7
32 .6

8" .1
76.8
9.1
98.5
35, t
2 5 . ft

61.6
53.0
7ft. 8

7fi.C
76.C
45.K

47 .0
37
53

12
79 r

45 !b
b4 c
15
77 ".3
66 ,4

41
69 ,7

53. u

a 6 .6

90 9

90 .9

90 9

72 .7
95 .5

83 ,3
92 ,4
65 ,9

70.'3

63 .6
61 .8
61
72 ,7
75 .C
95 c
7?

61

p

61 c

77 3
95
90
6P

72 .7
.6
fcl
6c ,4
IOC .0

61

!«
77 #3
80 .3

94

.c

48.0

91.7
73 b

9*+ f\

49 12

7l! 6
29. 9

?* u
100 0
31 r.
a3 2
bv
7C

t>« a
IOC ,0
2? , r
bl
bl
70 ."

43,

rfl.n
79.0

f>3 .3

72 .7

77 o
79 2

M.H

50 , (V
73 ,b

60 0
53 2

31.f

3o • a

43. e
72.0

7b

37
46
41
t>u

f-9*.7

ov .7

7

>T

. t:

.1

0

1

33. ij
by. 1
58 7

0
4
7

73

1
•4

vo.l
ri?..*

90.°

7 i . \j
7>j. b

c 0 .1

7^
7^
7C
97

Ct:
-1? 3

t
9

79
ft 2

4

94

7

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly

Annual

Year
Jan.

Feb.

Apr

Mar
750.

1946!.!
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

. 1
55
.2
73 . 2
62 . 9
61 . 6
77 . 6
9 1 .2
P9 .7
R7 .2
68 .0

1955...
1956...
1957...

*7 .4
88 . 5
92 . 7

1959.'!!
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963!.!

94 ,ft
94 . 7
95 .2
95 . 0
Q4 \ l

87!7

.3
56
.2
75 , 7
81 . 3
80 . 1
78 . 1
92 .5
89 .2
87
87 ! 7

87.7
89.2
92.8

87 . 3
89 . 5
92 . 7

55'.5
73.9
81.3
80.3
78.0
92.5
89.3

Q4

1965...
1966...
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

95 . 2
96 . 6
100 . 1
101 . 1
104 . 3
109 . 3
111 . 8
116 . 3
124 . 5
146 . 6

94.'6
94!7
95.2
94 9
94.4
95.4
99,3
99.9
101.9
104.6
109.7
112.8
117.3
126.9
149.5

95 . 0
94 .9
95 . 2
95 .2
04 9
94 .2
95
99
99
102
105
109
113
117
129
151

1955...
1956...
1957...
1956...
1959...
1 960.. .
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964!..
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

92 . 5
R3 . 0
78 . 9
91 . 6
92 ,R
86 ,7
89 .3

89.2
81.4
30.0
94.4
93.1
88.4
88.7

88 3
31 3
80 0
93 6
92 5
87 . 9
69 , 4

87 .3
62 .2

87.1
82.8
86.9
90.4
90.3

85 9
R2 9
86
91 7
90 0

92 !o
92.0
91 7

91 6
92 0

89 .8
91 . 0
•1
91 . 2
91

•?

93

:5

92 . 8
99 , 4
100 . 6
100 , 4
1C3 . 7
111 . 9
111 #5
116 , 7
131 , 7
1M .1

92.9
101.0
09.7
101.1
103.7
111.7
112.5
117.7
135.5
162.6

INPfcX OF vVHOLESALE P R l C t S ,
1967=100)

72
79
63
77
86
90
87
87
87

1
7
7
2
?
2
3

ea.o
91.0
94.0

8S.7
SI.7
93.7

3fi . 6
y i .7
93 . 5

8« 2
92 0
93 7

6b .3
9? . 3
94 . 1

94.5
94.6
°4.3
94 7
94!6

95,0
94.6
94.3

94 . 5
94 . 9
94 . 3

94 3
94 9
3

94.5

94 . 7
95

94 9
94

S9|l
$7.7

87 . 7
90 . 2
93 . 0

67.?
90, p
92.9

tt7.6
90.7
93.2

67.7
90.5
93.6

95 ! ?
95 . 9
94 . 7
. 6
94 . 0

9b.?
95.0
94.3
94 . '4

95.0
94.8
93.6
94 • 3

94.6
95.0
94.2
94 6
94! 8

81 . 3
89 . 7
81 . 1
80 . 3
93 . 9
91 • 8
86 , 7
90

96.9
'99.6
100.?.
102.5
106.8
110.4
114.3
116.8
136.0

Ib5.7

97.0
100.3
IOC.3
102.8
107.0
110.9
114.6
119.7
134.3
161.7

66.5
76.6
«4.3
77.9
63.5

97.0
100.7
100.0
102.5
106.9
110.4
114.9
119.9
1«2.1
167.4

7 9 . P,
90.5
80.fr
61.7
93.5
9 1 . «s
87.3
90.*

60.2
90.9
80.8
61.9
92.9
91.8
86.3

60.9
90.5
*0.3
65.5
91.4
91.5
67.0

P I *4

•35.7

85.2
87.0
93.0

64.4
87.7
92.9
89.2
69 7
89.8
91.3
92 9

&5.1
86.2
V2.1
^6.3
f. 9 tj

92 3

85 , 9
83 . 9
86
92 . 3
90
69
91
91
91
9?

93.?
90.1
69,1
91.',
91,0
9? . °
91.4

3
9
4
5
4
7
2
9
4
5

94 . ?
100 . 6
99 . 2
101 . 7
105 . 6
11?
114 , 5
,9
141 ,f:
.161 . 4

94.6
JO0.7
9v,"'
10?. 1
K'7.r,
111.?
1 1 a • 1119.1
145.9
160.0

7f. 2.

I NO

93
100
99
101
If; 4
111
113
117
140
161

'S

101
92 , 7
°8 ,4
103 2
100 , b
94 ,7
97 9
97 , p
98 3
96 . 0

102.0
94.2
97.1
105.0
99.b
95.0
96.3
98.3
96.4
94.4

100. 4
94. 4
96. 9
109. 5
Q
8. 6
98. 2
97. 5
97. 9
94. 9
95. 0

101
94
97
105
99
98
95
96
95
94

1965...
196b...
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

92
104
102
99
105
112
108
117
143
200

94.4
107.4
100.8
100.6
104.5
112.6
112.0
118.4
147.b
200.4

95. 3
106. 6
99. 4
101. 7
106. 0
113. 1
H I . 2
U7. 7
158. 1
193. b

97 , 7
106
97 0
102 . 3
106 3
111 P
113 5
119 p.
.161 7
167 9

•• •

107

1

69. ?
90 ! 7
93.1
96.0
99.9
100.3
102.?

97.1
100.7
100.1
102.9
107.1
lll.O

Il4 ,3
120.2
139.7
167.2

1 Of? . 3

HI.''
114.2
11A.M
150.7
136.0

106 , 9
117 . 0
103 . 3
100 , a
128 . ?
118 . 0
105 . 3
.1.07 . 2
p 5

,7
.3
.0
.6
,a
19
,4
,?

loSi;
119!^
103.?
10?,R
125. 9
117. a

106.?
1??.?.
101. 1
103.8
125. 3

iip-.o

1 0ft.3
106. T

104. a
103.8

9 1 . £•
9S. T

loC.3
99. H
99. 0
104.3
9P.4
97. a
93.«
96.2
96.0

l O t . £•
9(s,f

9d.7
9b. f1
96,5
VM ,g

9b,^
104,?
loo, 1
102. <5
109.P
110.1
113.?
121.7
170.?
16U.«

lOO.b
103.7
101.5
.1.01.1
109.7
109.3
H3.6
121.2
178.4
164.5

p&!y
SO. 7
*6.3
91.1
91.9
86.6
*9.3

97
100
100
102
107
110
114
120
138
170

.2
.1
.1
.9
.4
,9
.4
.0
.7
.2

97
99
100
103
108
110
114
120
139
171

II Q

III Q

IV Q

1
,9

5
8
1
3
1
9
5
7
2
9

.

9o!7
92.2

54.9
71.3
60.1
63..)
77.7
87.1.
90.?

87.0
87.B

67.9

67.4
67.1

t l .5
39 ,2
92 . 7

67.5
9 0 . ft
93.0

88.1
VI.1
93.6

bH.i'
92 !f
93."

«7.o
90! ?
93.3

94 . 3
94 . 6
94 . 6

.6
94
94 \y
9b , 2

94.7
9b.1
95.0
94.3

p

94 !h
4.7
94.3

94."^
94. w
94.4

94,6
94,0
94,9
94.5

94 . 5

94 . 4

94.3

94.6

94.7

94!b

94 . 0

94.7

97.6
99.9
100.3
103.3
108.Q
110.9
114.«
121.2
139.9
171.2

9o.6
99. d
100.0
102.b
10b.D
110.4
113.9
llv.l
134.7
160.1

81 . 0
eo . 7
77 , 9
92 . 1
89
87 . 2
87 , a

94 . 4
96
99
100
103
10*
111
lib
122
141
171

.1
.6
#(?

.6
.6
.0
,4
.9
.8
.5

9b . 4
99 . 1
99
101 ".7
1C4 . 6
109 . 6
112 . 5
117 . 0
127 . 1
149 . 2

67
88
91.
88.

92.6

^2.o
7c! 7
51. C
VI.1
8c. 6
67.4

92
96 . 8
10? . 0
100 . 2
102 . 8
109 . 8
112 . 9
113 . 1
12? . 9
134 . 5
185

•°

90 ! o
e i ,9
.6
93 . 3
92 . 6
36 . 3
.1

86
6d ,8
9 1 ,9
88 . 1

.6
86 . 6
90 . 6
90 . 4

84.9
66.7
9?.6
69,6

91 . 8
92 . 3

91 . 0
91 . ^

90. t
91.0

55.2
67.9
92.2
88.6
69,6
90.4
92.7

92. 3

92 . 5

92 . 0

91.7

98. 0
101. 3
99. 9
103.
110. 1
113. 3
116. 1
12b. ?
134.
193. 6

99 . 0
101 . 3
IOC tp
103 . 3
110 . 5
111 . 3
116 . 2
.29 . 7
15b . 7
18* .?

93 .0
100 , 4
,9
101 . 0
103 . 9
H I
112 . 4
117 , 4
135 # v
161 , 7

94.9
100."
99.7
102.0
107.0
ll^b
11?.9
146.0
159,1

87 . 6
8b. u
79.2
86.7
93.0
90.2
67.4
87.5

8o!2
91 \'i.
91.7
''7.1

63.3
66.6
88.1
91.4
86.4

IC2U
100.2
102.7
106.3
112.3
114.7
l?O.b
155.6
173.9

...
u * *u
8a!?
80.6
8 3. 4
91 .b
87! 4

84.9

vi!t,
R9.4

9l!l
92!^

9l!o
9i, y

93.3
92. *
97.«
10l!K
100.1
103.?
110.1
112. b
llb.R
125.9
155.0
169.0

92,3
92.3
91),3
101,2
1O0.0
107.3
112.0
114.3
120.0

170 ,\

PRODUCTS
MVEKAG E FOR PERIOD

119. V
119.2
103.a
104.1

107.6
119.4
100.1
110.0
119.7
119.4
104.9
10^.4

1U.2
116,9
100.3
Hi.6
H9.6
H6.0

9b.8
97.6
101.2
103.7
96.7
97.2
c
l3.4
96.6
9b. 7
93.6

9b. 1
97.7
102.0
102.3
V5.7
94.9
97.2
=>7.9
Cb,3
93.7

99.2
106.5
101.2
102.4
109.4
111.3
111.9
12C.6
172.1
lflO.tJ

99.4
10B.5
100.0
102.2
109.5
109.0
113.2
1?7.7
211.a
I f 0.6

106.4
120.7
99. y
10a. 5

97.0
100.0
100.1
1C2.7
107.0
110.d
114.7
119.9
136.7
165.u

H?' \
39V

91. 1
92. *

86 . 2
S7 .2
91 . 1
86 . 9
90
90 . 3
9? . 4

96.2
103.0
lOO.4
102.9
108.4
112 . fa
114. b
121.6
150.3
177.0

96.3
99.^
99.7
10?. 3
106,?
110.1
113.&
118.2
133.?
154.5

80 . 4
90! 3
80.8
61.3
93.3
91.7
86.8
90.?

0
2
3
3

86,0
87,8
91.5
89.0
89 7
O0.6
93.6

°6.6
103.4
100.1
1G2.6
1CS.4
112.4
114.7
120.2
164.9
177.9

•t

5
1
9
0
9
7
7

67
85
79
85
93
90
86
67

?l.b

34 , 6
62.3

54.3
63.0
76. t
84.1
77.9
P3.4
.90.3

89
84 , 5
79 . 3
89 . 0
.3
68 , 7
68 . 4
67

86
86 ! i
79 . 3
8b . 3
92 . 7
91 . 1
87 . 0
87

96.1
100.9
100.2
102.6
lOd.O
111.8
114.9
120.4
145.5
166.9

..

54,7
b7.4
74.9
8?.?
78.6
76.9
91.9

.2
"55
3
74 .. 6

aVEKAbE FOFv PER 1 0 0

84 .6
86,2
79.7
86,5
91.2
91.7
87.7
86,1

9l!b

OF WHOLESALE. PRICES, FAKf
(1967s100)

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

6

69 . 2
79 . 1
d3 . 3
77 . 7
65 . 5
90 ,5
66 .2
37 .5
•37 . 1

87.7

114! a
103. 1
100. 4
127. 9.
U7. 8
108. 4

.2
,3

64.0
78.1
84.2
78.0
85.0
QO.O
88.7
6b.1

67.3

y6.?
99.*",
99.7
102.4
10f>, 3
110.0
113."
11*.?
133.?
1 5^.0

1 Q

Dec.

AVEKAGE FO" PEM0D

88.0

95 , 9
99 . 4
99 . ?
102 . 1
105 . 5
110 . 0
U 3 .3
117 . 5
130 . 5
15? . 7

Nov.

Oct.

.2
7? .7
81 . 4
6? . 6
7 7. 6
89 . 0
9C . 1
87 .0
67 ,4
.9

86
86 . 1

,0

.3
.1
.3
.7

Sept.

ALL COMMODITIES®

64.4
7b.6
83.7
77.8
61.7
90.7
68.7

118.0
103.7
100.9
130.1
119.2
107.6
107.3

.6

Aug.

58.2
74. P
63.0
77.9
79.5
91.3
68.2

.8
.?

• ;;
125 , 6
107 . 2
9 f l .0
123 . 7
1?1 . 2
109 , 7
107 •b"

,8
.6
6
,9

July

37!?
74.*
32. u
78.6
79.1
9?.O

56
75
62
79
73
9?

1946...
1947...
1948.. .
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

...

June

INDEX OF WHOLESALE P R I C E S , PKOCESSFD FOODS AND FFEDS 2
(1967=100)

751.

1947...
1946. . .
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

.5
.3
.6
.1
.4
,9
.0
,4
.8
,4

May

lib! 5
11?.. 1

102.2

114 . 2
113 . 1
99 .0
110 . 4
122 . 6
115 . 0
104 . 8
102 . 5

97. b
9d.3
09.6
101.9
97.4
96.2
9b.b
lOO.rt
9b. a
9o,0

95
97
101
101
95
96
95
99
95
94

.9
.6
.0
.8
.5
.6
.9
.5

99 , 6
109,4
99.1
104.1
109.7
U3.0
111.4
129.6
201.6
134,4

100
106
99
103
111
110
114
129
193
193

,7
.2
.0
.6
1
P.
5
1
6
1

lOO. 6

,9

.8

103! 6
103. 1

122
110
98
119
124
111
105
100

!o
,3
.7
.9
.0
.0
.7
.7

93. 3
97. 8
101. 9
10k. 0
9 4. 3
9t. 9
96. 1
99.
96. 7
94.

92
99
10?
100
95
9»
97
9t
9a
93

.9
.3

101. 3
103. t
9f. 1
10b. 3
114. 1

104
1C2
100
104
113
108
117
139
Id1-'

99. p
lit. 3
123. 1

1O C >. p.

1
13?! b
189. 9
194. 0

!&
.1
.3
.4
.6
.5
.8

,9
.1
3
5
2
2
3
9

1

• ••
119
104
99
127
119
106
107

,7
!2
,4
.6

106, 2
H0.6
10k!?
10?.3
117,^

110.0
119,7
118,2

ios!e

103!o

101
93 .fa
97
10b . 9
9V
96 . 0
97
98 . 0
96
9b . 1

100,5
97.^
97.7

106 >z
101 • 'j

104.8
99.?
10?.1
108.6
110.4
113.4
120.9
170.1
177.7

1 0 0 ,'/

1C5
112
110
117
149

,4
,9
.*
.6
.6

.2

106*4
119 ! 0
100.1

9^.°
9^',3
9" .9
9h.i+
9b. 4
94.2

c

?!*
1^0.9
102.6

^il
9 a, 4
6, 3

C

106 ! i
100.1
K9,o
111,1
112.2
195 \c
1C4.0

117. Kc
111.
99.0
123.?
113.4
104.7
102.1

10V.H
117.5
101,5
lOo.Y
12H.2
117. <d
104! 7

9"+. 0
9B.?
1C2.O

9 o,2

9b. c,
98.*
96.5
99.3
95.7
94.b

97*0
9 /'.d

102 • 1
104.3
99.1
104."

112 . c;

11 b, *>
133.6
191,1
191.1

9 -i . 3

93.0
96.^

9 a. 7
103.9
1C0.O
102,3
109.1
111.0
112,9
I2b,o
17o. J
1*7.7

1
2

This i
This 1




(July 1975)

109

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly

Quarterly

Annua

Year
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

781.

1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...

53.3
54.5
64.4
71.0
72.0
70.5
76.1
79.3

1954!!!

30! 7

1955...
195b!!!
3 957

'"•0,1

1959!!!
1960...

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

80.1

53.2
54.7
65.7
70.2
71.4
70.6
77.3
78.8

June

p.sie
86i7
88.0

" 55.0
65.7
71.2
71.5
70.7
77.4
79.1
80.3

?0 1

80 a 1

83 3

83 6
86. h
86.P
88.5

6*! 5
71.7
71. u
71.0
77.7
79.2
8P.fi

35.9
66.0
7?.?.
71.5
71.4
77.A
79.4

80.6
d*.9
bb.1?

59.2
66.6
73.1
71.0
72.1
77.7
80.0

00.7

82.0
66.7
d7.3
«8.7

Pb.8
87.5
6fc.7

92.6

90.3
91.3
92.6

9o!b
91 i 3
92.7

9O!K
91.3
9?. 7

90 ! 5
91.7
92.9

9o!7
92!l
93.1

93.6
95.4
98.6
102.0
106.7
113.3
119.2
123.2
1P7.7
139 7

93.6
96.0
98.7
102.3
107.1
113.9
119.4
123.8
128.6
141 5

93.7
96.3
98.9
102.8
108.0
114,5
119.8
124.0
129.8
143 1

94.0
96.7
90.1
103.1
108.7
115.2
120.2
124.3
130.7
143.9

94.?
96..«

94.7
97.1
99.7
104.0
109.7
116.3
121.5
125.0
132.4

94.6
97.4
100.2
104.5
110.2
lib.7
121.8
123.5
132.7

vv.u
103.4
109.0
115.7
120. s
124.7
131.5
1 4 s ' . *>

5H.3
60.5
tl.3
73.4
71.2
72.7
77.7
fcO.l
60 .6

90.1
91.2
92.5

°1 • 1

Sept

Aug.

Nov.

Oct.

Dec.

1 Q

III Q

II Q

IV Q

f

80.5

P6i7
88.0

July

INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES, ALL ITtf'S<§
19b7«100 )

dC.9
35! 7

1962...
1963...
1964...

53.2
54.3
64.3
70.4
71.2
70.3
77.0
78.8

May

tfo.7
87.4
f 3.7
b9 7
90! 7
92.1
93. U
54.6
97.9
100.5
104. c
110.7
116.9
122.1
1P5.7
135.1
14V 9

AVFRPCJE

54
62
6d
73
71
73
7d
dO

do
80 . 2

54.
63.
69. 3
72.
71. p
73. 9
79. 0
8<J. 1
80. &
60. 3

?2 . 0

60
82 , 5

86 . 7
87 . 7
3 b .«

86 . 7
83 . 0
d9 . 2

.1
.2
,9
.4
.5
.2
.2
.0

61
68
73
71
13
7ri
?o
80
«0 , 4

.1
,4
.9
.1
.1
.6
.6
.1

,4
.2
.1
.8
.9
.3
.0

64!
70.
71.
70.
76.
79.

b
D
*5

5
?.

0

55.4
65.7
71.7
71.5
71.0
77. fc
79.2

60.
67.
73.
71.
12.
77.
'30.

ICD

3
c
3
7
t.

0

3
63. A
69.
12.
71.
7" 1
7c .
ttO. 1

S3. \
- '

•'"

.

60, y

7/. 1
71.
7<i. 1
7?! 0
7*.
1
*o!

80 ,5
6 0 .1

79,
8 0 . fc

79 . 9
80. t

?l . 0

eo. 0

60, 7
80.

80
62! 5

82 \l

80! 3

to'.i

**! 0

62!

M! 4

B6. e
tit. 0
89. 3

tf6. 7
88 . 0
d9 . 3

86. 0
£6. 7
86. U

66.c
87.0
8*. 6

*b!

£8&
!6
7! 3

*8. 7

85. 1
7
3h[
6 9 . '!

89. 3
9 0 . 21
91.
92. 0

90 "J
9l!*»
92. e

cjo! e
1
9J. 1

91. 1
92. 3
V3.

90 ! b
91, 7
92.

93. 6
93. V
98. 7
102. 4
107. 3
113. 9
11V. 3
123. 7
128. 7

94.3
96.9
99.4
103.5
109.1
115.7
120.1?
124.7
131.5

94. 7
97 1
1^0,
104.
110. 7
117. ij
1?2 0
123. j ,
13*, 4

91 .2
92 . 1
Q3 . 2

VI . 1
92 . 2
93 . 3

9li

.6
.1
,7
.1
.2
.5
,2
.2
.5

94 . 9
9« . 5
101 . 0
105 . 7
111 . 6
118 . 1
122 . 4
126 . 6
136 . 6
153

95. 1
9'3 •
101. 3
106, 1
112 2
IIS
122 6
126 9
137. 6

94
98
100
103
HI
U7
122
126
135
151

6H
70
7?
70
74
79
dC

r ( ; r ; i-

1
92. 3
93. 5

io

91
92 . 5
93 .6
95
96
101
106
112
H9
123
127
138

,4

.6
.6
.4
.9
.1
.1
.3
.5

•J

fc 7 .-)

95.
9d,
101.
106.
112.
11H.
122.
126.
137.

1

1
2
7

PS,

c

>4. 3
97*.
1 0 0 . (1
104 , 2
109. s
116. 3
121. 3
12-,. 3
133. 1
147. 7

1975.'!!

781-C ,

1947...
194tt...

...
1.2

PERCENT CHANGES IN INI/FX OF CO.MS .'MEK P R I C E S
(MONT Hi. f kA/iE, PEKCENT)

0.6
-0.1

1.8
-0.7

0.0
1.4

— V. 1
0.*

oil
oil

~0 • 1
0.*
('.3
CO
0.1
0.3

195o!i!

-oi4

"0!

1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

l!6
-0.1
-0.3
0.2

l!d
-0.1
-0.1
0.2

-0.1
0.1
0,2
-0.2
0.1
-0.2

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2

0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.1

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1

0.2
0.0
0.5
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.5
1.1

0.0
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.4
0.6
1.1

0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.0
O.d
1.0

0.3
0.4
0.1
O.P0.6
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.7

4

0.3
0.1
-0.?
O.o

oil
0.3

-0.1
0.4
0.9

0.0
<•' . ?

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
c .1
0.?
o.u
0.3
0.3
O.U

O.c
0.3
0.5
1 .^

C.6
0.6
0 1

E For r Lr'IOD

0 .3
-0 .2

0 7
-0 6

.6
.6

.2
.2
.2

0
0
0
0
-0

0
0
0
-0
0

,4
.1
.1
.0
.3
.0
.1
.5
.1
,2

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-0
0
0

.0
.6
.0
.0
.3
.5
.0
.1
.1
.1

0
0
0
0

(J . 2
0 .2
0 .2
0 ,3
0 .5
0 .3
0 .1
0 .4
0 .3
1 .2

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

.1
,4
.3
.6
.3
.5
.2
.3
.8

0
0
0
0

0.7
1.0
—0 9

0.0
0.1

2 .0
-0 .3

0[6

-oil
0.6

0
0
-0
0
-0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-0
0

0.2
0.3
0.0

0.0
-0.3

-O.#2
O.U
0.2
0.0

-0.?
O.u
0.4
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.3
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.0

-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.0

0.4
0.1
0.?
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.6
0.^

0.0
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3

-0.1
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.1
1.7
1.1

-0I2

SPANS2

OVER 1-MOiS

o.a

.6
,b

,?

.2
.3

,0

0

0
0
0
0

c

1 ,4
-0 .5

6!1

3
1

1.5
0 .6
0 .1
0 .0
0 .0

0.
1.
-0.
-0.
0.

1
1
4
1
0
1
0
1
2
?

0 .0
0 .4
0 .2
0 .1
0 .1
u.1
0 .1
-0 .1
0 .3
0 .1

0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0,
0.
0.
0.

0
2
^
0

3

0
0
0
0

0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
1.

1
3
1
4
5

5
0

0

3
4
c 6
0 4
0 2
0 3
0
C!

,4
.1
.3
,3

0 .0
0 .5

0 i)
0 .3
0 .7
u.8
m

0
2
1
1
1

c. 1

c
0
2
1
1

2
2
b
1

2
781-C . PESCFwT CHANGES IN INUF X OF CONS UtfErt P R I C E S CVErt G-l'-lOi\ T-i 6PAWS
(CCMPCiHUEU ANNUAL HATE, PERCENT)

8.3

6.5

7.1
6.2

7.r^

8.1
0.0
12.0
2.3
-0.1
-0.6

0.6
11.5
1.3
0.2
0.6

2.4
7.8
0.5
0.6
0.5

4.7
4.?
1.7
1.1
-0.5

5.1
0.?
1.9
1.0
-0.9

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
3964...

0.5
0.7
3.3
4.5
0.6
1.4
0.5
1.7
0.7

0.0
1.2
3.5
3.7
0.6
1.5
0.3
1.7
0.7
1.2

-0.2
2.1
3.5
3.2.
1.1
1.4
0.1
1.2
1.5
0.9

o.u

-0.6
3. 3
3.5
1.7
1.?
1.3
0.6
1.1

1965...
1966...
J 967. . .
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

1.7
4.0
1.3
4.3

1.8
3.9
2.0
4.3
5.6
6,3
3.9
3.4
7.3
11.6

2.3
3.4
2.1
4.b
6.1
5.9
3.8
2.9
7.9
12.3

1947...
194o...
1.949. * .
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

6,7
3*.7
3.3
6.b

11I3

1
z

This
This

110




3.5
3.fc
1•8
0.9
1.3
0.7
1.3
1.7
0.?
2.0
3.6
2.7
4.4
6.C
5.5
3.9
3.?
7.*

0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0

(.1

0.4
0.3
0 . f.
0.c-

0 3
0
1

12 , 4
-1 .0

13 . 5
-3 .3

11

.2

.8
- 3 \l

6.0
1.1
1,9
-1.0

7.2
2.0
1.6
2.1
-1.1

7.2
2.5
1.5
1.2
-1.3

9 ,4
4 .1
1 .3
u .7
- 1 ,4

11 . 3
4 .2
-0 .3
1
-0 .9

14 . 0
a .4
- 0 .6
1 .0
- 0 .4

13 . 1
2 .8
0 .0
c.3
0 .0

1.
10.
1.
0
0.

0
4
4
2
2

5.3
1 . '5
1.9
1.6
-0.8

0.3
3.4
3.4
0.2
1,9
1.4
1.0
1,5
1.4
0.9

0.3
4.3
2.6
-0.2
2.4
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.7
1.1

0.7
3.6
3.0
0.0
"2 . 2
1 .3
1.0
1.0
1.*
1.4

1 .0
3 .0
2 ,5
0 ,3
1 ,9
1 .5
1 .2
1 .2
1.0
1 .5

0 .5
2 .8
3 .2
0 ,P
1 .6
1 ,9
0 .7
1 .4
1 .6
1 .6

1 .1
3 6
? ,9
0 4
1 ,7
1 ,7
1 .1
1 ,3
1 .1
1 .6

0 .3
3 ,b
4 .0
0 ,4

0.
1.
3.
3.
0.
1,
0.
1
1.
1

1
3
4

-o.i

l.e
3.*
3.?

2.0
3.?

1.7
3.6

1 ,b
3 .2

1. . 8
3 .1

3 .4
2 .1

3 .5
1 .9

I'.*

4.3
5.H
5.1
3.9
3.4
R.7
12.1

1.7
3.3
3.7
5.2
fc.O
4.9
3.0
3.6

H.9

4.1
2.7
10.0
11.«

5.0
5.3
5.0
3.6
3.6
d.9
12.7

V.6

12.5

b . 2

5
2
J
9
12

.2
.9
, V

.7
.2

6
5
2
4
11
11

.3
.0
.1
!7

t
. *
3 .2
b
10 ,r
10 . 4

t .2
.1
3 .1
.0
11
c .5

7.^

fc
4
3
b
C
2

I
J
1
1

0 . -•>

10.4
1.3

1 .1
1 .5
1.3
(.1 . 6
1 .4
1•u

j

0 .r>

4i2

7! 6

1

(; i j
(J J>
0 3
0 H
0

J

£.VEr<A< jF. F0~

K

1
1
1
^

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0.3
0.2
0.2
C.3

d.b

O.*»

0
0
0
0
-0

-0.1
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.?.
0.2
O.f'
0. c
0.1
0.1

7.9
7.5

f .7

!
0 3

0.2
0.9

b!>=-

1.2
1.3
1.3
0 , J-

1.3
l.t
0.7

1 9
3
1 f

1.9
3.5
3.3

5
6 3
3 >j
3 2
7 3
11

6.0
5,?
4,0
3.1
P.7
11.9

°'

0 0
0.
0. 1
0.
-0. 1

0. 3
0. D
0, 1
J
0 . <>

0 0
a
?
u 11
0
0 ?

0. 0
0,
0. 2
0, 2
0. 1
0. 1
0. 0
0. 1
0. 1
1

0
o.
0

3

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(/
0
0

3

0. 2
0. 3

3
-:

0. 2
0. 4
0 , f5

'•?

0, 4

3

0.
0.
0.
1,

3
3
7
0

3
-1
b
4
1
1

u

a

3
(;<

L HOD

10
-3

10
1

3
7

7
,v
1 ,D
1 .3
-1 .3
0 , 7

3.4
3.0

0,

-0

,7
0 .0
•j t l
1
1 !i
1 .1
1
I . .5
1 .7
3.4

5 .0
3 ,^
3
9
12

3
-(.• 3
0

-U

iJ
7
1
0
b

3

0

3
3 4
0 S
1
1 7
I
1 .1
1
1

3
3
1
1
1
0
1
1
1

2 tc

2 ,1
3
2

4t n
6 7
4 .f
3 .1
3

11 , 0
10

3
4
b
c
3
.2

b '0

r> , 3
5,5
3 ,u
9 ,1
11

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly

Annual

Year
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

May

Apr.
76?.

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

INDEX OF COMiUMf-R PRICES, FOOD *
1967=100)

II Q

III Q

IV Q

AVERAGE F G * P t fICD
50.7

67.7
76.0
74.2

69.0
76.?
74.3
7?. 3
82. P
64.3
8?.5
63.2

68.7
77.?
74.0
7 2 . c,
b3.n

81.;61.7

1953...
1954...

83.4
b3.5

83.0
83.6

69.7
74.3
74.2
72.3
33.2
83. 7
83.0
63.3

1955...
1956...
1957., ,
1958. . .
1959...

M.6
80.7
o3.4
37.4
87.9

82.2
80.6
84.2
67.6
87,4

62.3
80.3
83.9
89.b
87.0

8?. 3
61.1
84.0
89.8
86.7

H6.=.

1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

69.4
69.2

89.4
69,9

92.0

89.5
89.6
91.2
92.0

89.?
90.0
90.6
92.0

6P.Q
90,"
9?.O

1965...

V2.7

92.5

92.9

1967..."
196o.
1969..,
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

99.7

99.2
102.1
106.0
114.2
115.9
1?2.2
131.0

99.3
102.4
106.3
114.1
116.8
122.0
134.0

93.3
99 ?
98.9
10?.8
107.0
114.6
117.7
122.3
136.2

1947...
1946,,,
1949...
19*0...
1951...

67.0
76.5
74.6
71.4
80.9

mi.fc

106.1
113.7
116.0
120.6
129.2

72.4
33.7

91.0
92.0

69.1
77.7
74.2
71.7
62.3

69.7
7c.2
72.8
75.1
82.0

70.6
77.9
72.9
75.6
61.7

72,6
77,3
73.5
75.7
«2.0

73.1

73.6
75.3
72.9
76.6
64.0

75.5
74.8
7?.O
79.0
34.9

66.1
75.6
74.3
72.0
62.0

66.9
77.0
74,,?
73.C
62.7

83.4
62.0

6?.4

62.9
01.7

83.1
83.5

3?.. 8
83.?.

61.4
83.1
55.6
87.9
87.1

61.0
63.4

61.C
63.5
85.7
o7.7
86.9

82.0
80.7
83.6
86.2
67.4

S1. b
61.»
84.3
89.«
86.7

89.0
90.5
91.1
92.8

66.6
90.1
91.8
93.1

89.4
89.6
91.1
92.0

89,0
89 . 8
90. b
92.1

76.7
72.8
76.4
83.3

71.1
77,1.1
73.1
15.t

74.1
75.'
72.6
77.3

70'. 6
76,6
73.b
74.b

l.v

64.1
84.3
6?.c
61. «

84^3
83.0
82,6

c

84.7
o3.3
83.2

62.7
83.3

83.1
63.1

83.3

61.3
6?.5
84.8

61.4
63.4
85.4

41.1

81.7

6b. 9

66.0

Pb',6
36.1
87,0

88.7
69.^
v
l . 1
9?.2

89.0
89.3
91.5
92.3

bb. 8
89.7
91.6
^2.2

88 , 6
9U.7
91.2
92.6

**.l

95. b
99.8
103.?
108.6
11?. 0
119.1
122.9
139. H

95,5
9b 4
100.0
103.5
109.2
115.0
119.0
123.3
139.9

95.0

99,?
103.3
107.*
115.0
Uc.2
12?. 3
137. 0

94.9
100 1
100.4
104.3
110.5

83.3

62.6
66.3

100.5
103.9
109. b

115.1
119.4
124.0
14b.6

I l 5 ,5
l l ^ ,0
124.6
146.0

61.9

65.6
88,1
67.0
89 *'
88.6
90.7
91.5
93.1

82,9

61.1
63.3

81.4
f

^

07. «
67. C

P8.3

Sft.v
90.4

"9.V
Q
l.<*
°2,4

91.5
93.0

81 ,0
•32,2
64,9
80,5
6 7.1
89.1
6V.V
91,2
92.4

°5.3

95.6

9fe,2

92.7

94.3

9b.1

95.7
100 ?

94.4

100.4
105.0
110.6
115.8
119.3
125.4
149.0

100.9
105.?
112.0
115.7
119.fi
126.3
150.9

101.2
105.5
113.1
115.8
120.6
126.5
132.1

99.4
102.1
106.1
114.0
116.2
121.7
131. 4
156 7

99.3

100.3
103.V
10 9 . evllb.k
119.1
l?4.j
l"5.o

100. f
105.2
111."
116.r
120,0
12t>. 1
150.7
166 7

100.0
103.6
10.1. V
115.0
11 a. 4
123.5
141.4
1*1 7

103.1
107.7
114 . *i
118.3
122.5
136.0

1975...
783.

1957...
195ri...
19*9...
1960...
1961...
1962...
196 3 . . .
1964...
1.965...

196"...
1970...
1*71...
1972...
1973...
1974. . ,
1975...

49.6
-1.4

c

93.4

87.1
69.8
91.2
91.9
93.5
93.1
93.8

INDEX OF CONSUME < PRICES, COMMODITIES LESS FOOU*
(19*7x110)

87.3
90.2
91.3
92.2
93.2
•^3.0
93.9

87.?
90.t;
91.3

95.7

95.5

96.1
96.7

96.1
96.8

96.?
97.1

102'. 4
106.3
110.6
115.7
118.3
121.4
129.8

102.7
107.2
110.0
115.7
118.6
121.9
131.5

102.7
107.3
HI.5
115.9
118.6
12?."
132.4

93.2
9 3.0
94.1

y r . .4
91 , *
92. '
>3.P
93.!

90.5
91.4
9?.7
93.2
93.3
94.2.

87.7
90.6
91.5

°2.9
93.0
93.5
94.1

66.0
90.6
91.5
s 3.0
c
'3.1
S3.6

90,6
Q1.5
92.9
Q3.0
93.8
94. b

AVF.Mfc E Fuf-

38.8
90.5
91.4
93.2
93.0
93.7
95.1

96.2

lC'2!o
105.6
110.3
115.5
116.2
121.0
1?6.4

784.

I'\D tX

9 7 . ">i

9 6.'3
97.4

103,f.
107.*

loe.o

lil.o
llfj.S
1 1 9 , (•
I<i2 , ' J
1^.?

103.4
IIP. 3
U6.7
119.0
123.3
135.8

97.6

103. fa
106.3
112.5
117.0
119.4
123.5
137.5

V3.2
92. h
93.7
94.3
95.3

91.1
91.9
93.3
93.0
93,6
94.3
95.4

67.1
89.9
91.3
92.C
93.4
93.0
93.6
94,2
95.6

67.4
90,5
91. u
9' 3 ,6
93.2
93,1
94.2
94.5
95.t>

96.6
98.4

96,1
96.7

96.3
97.3

96.1

105.3
11C.0
115.3
117.9

1C2.4
106.4
110.O
lib.6
118.4
121.4
129.9

103,0
107. c

104.1
10«.b
112,^
117.2
119. e
1?3.9
139.2

6o,9

VI.2
91.7

96.1
97.6

96.1
9E.1

96.1
93.2

9^.3

104.1
10b. 0

104.4
lOf* .6

112.6
117.3
11*.6
123.9
139.3

U3.4

104.7
109.4
114.0
117.6
120.3
125.0
141.8

105.2
109.7
11**.6
117.6
120.6
125.9
142.9

117.4
120.3
124.2
140.8

120.9
126,8
143.8

1951. . .
1952 . .

1965...
1966. . .
1967. , .
196rt...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974. , ,
1975...

91.3
93.6
96.3
102.4
106.8
117.1
1?6.3
131.3
135.7
144, a

87.7
S9.4

71.9
74.4
77.7
79.8

82.7
86.2
87.8
89.5
91.5
93.7
99.0
102.6
109,4
118.0
126.6
131.6
136.2
145.9

72.0
74.9
78.0
RO.O
82.9

72.2
7a.9
78.9
80.3
83.1

72. a
7 f ,T
76.4
80.4
63.?

72.^
75.5
78.5
cG.'"3
63.3

72.7
7b.b
76.7
60.8
£3.6
65.2
87.0

87.9
89.7

88.1
69. 0

9 C,0

90.1

90.3

91.6
94.0
Q6.9
103.4
110.3
119.3
126.6
132.1
136.6
147.1

91.9
94. £
99.1
103.?
111.2
120.1
126. S
13?.4
137.1
146.0

9?.O
•*r , l
l
><?,5
104.2
111.7
12C. 7
127."
132.7
1 ->7,^
1-+-/.5

92.1
95.5
99.b

92.2
9o,0
100,0
105,6
112.8
122,0
120.8
133.5
1 jj«,4
152.6

ntains revisions beginning with 1970.




V

3 1C+
118.9
122. P
13«*,3

104,9
U2.2
1?-1,4
l^R.2
133.1
136,1
lbo.*

73.0
76.1
76.9

"1.2
63.7
65.3
P7.2
P8.7
90,4
92.3
96,3
100,4
106,1
113,3
122,7
12V. i
133,3
US,3
154.2

88."
90,°
91.7
93.?.
92. v
93.7
9^.3

^7.6
* V) . 0
^1 . 3
*2, 1
'3,1
^3.4

9b. t

95.0

96.3
98.3

9b. 2
97.5

1C5.1
109.7
114.*.
117.7
120.6

142.S

103.7
10b, 1
112,b
Ho.7
119.4
123.5
136.6

50.0
52.6
5 5 . f.
57 B
59.9
03.0
65.9
68.7
70.0

49.i
51,1
54.3
56 9
bb,7
61 b
64 5
67,3
6V.b"

71.6
73.5
76.8
79.1
81.9

70.9
72.7
7b.0
76.b
60,0
63.b

V()|7
91,3

°3,0
°3,o
94.2

1 2 5 . •"•»

E FOf- HLKIOD

53.3

71.6
74.1
77.4
79.6
32.2

1 1 1 ,

oF COVSIMLR PKlCEo, SE hVICFS®'
(l9h7.10v.

50,4

1956...
1957...
1956...
1959...
1960...
1961...
19-62...
1963...
1964. . .

100
PtH

73.1
76.3
79.0
PI.6
63.9
87.1
88,9
90.4
92,6
9o.7
100,8
106,5
114,3
123.3
129,b
114,1
140,0
156,0

73.3
76.5
79,0
61,8
84,1
35.6
37.2
69.0
90.6

73,5
76,9
70,?
61.V
S4.3
85.7
87,3
c*,2
90,6

73.8
77.1
79.2
82.1

93.0

93,?
97,7
101,3
107,6

93.4
98,0
101.9
10*.1
lift. 1
125.6
13l't 7

101.1
1^7,0
114.7
124.1
129.9
134.6
142,?
157,3

115,3

124,9
130,3

91*0

10,0

135,4
143.e

153,7

lbO.l

50. h
54,0
56 7

55.2
57 2
59.1

61,2
63.7
66. b

64,5
67.1

'5 1
66.1

70,4
71.9
74.5
77.7
79,6
82,6
64.7
86.2
P7.6
89,5

70.9
72."
75.2
7P .4
80.4
83.2
85.1
66,7
8P.2
90,0

76,1
76,9
SI.2
63.7
S5.3
67.1
86,7
90.4

91. p
93.6
98.6
1C2.9
109,5
U8.1
126.b
131.'?
136.2
145.9

9?,0
95.1
99,5
104,3
111,7
120,7
1*7,5
132.7
137. i

7 1 . <L

72,v

92.4

96,3
100.4
106,1
Il3# J
122.7
129,3
133, tf
144.3

64.2
85,7
67,3
89,?
90, h
93,?.
97,fc
101.5
107.&
115,4
124,9

130.3
135,0
H3.0
isa.7

85,2
86.6
66, b
90,2
92.2
100.0
103,2
112. 5
I2i 4
133,3
13*,1
152,1
(July 197S)

111

G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Composite Indexes

(JULY) (AUG.)

(NOV.) (OCT.)
P

T

P

M l I I I 111 111 m m

III

(JULYHAPR.!

T

P

(MAY)(FEB.)

T

in in m i l l

P

(NOV.) (NOV.)

T

P

in m 111 i n

111 I I I

111

Ifl

T

II TT TT TTT NT TTT TTT I l l l l l l
Index: 1967=100

Old Indexes of 12 Leading Indicators
(series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17,
19, 23, 29, 31, 113)

810.

Ratio
Scale
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90

Reverse trend adjusted1

70

811.

140
130
120
110
100
90

Prior to trend adjustment

V

70

11
111111
11111 h i til i Hi n 11 n 1111 Ii 11 Ii i ii i I I In 1111
11 i n i Ii nl in i n
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Apr.

June

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Series 810:

197319741975-

155.9
167.8
152.8

158.8
170.2
153.0

161.3
172.3
151.2

159.7
173.0
rl56.3

162.9
175.6
157.3

164.3
176.0
2
155.1

Series 811:

197319741975-

121.5
125.1
108.9

123.3
126.3
108.6

124.8
127.5
106.9

123.1
127.4
rllO.l

125.1
128.9
110.4

125.7
128.7
2
108.5

May

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec

165.6
E>179.6

July

167.3
177.9

165.1
172.2

166.8
168.5

168.1
162.6

165 .6
158 .9

126.2

127.0
129.2

124.9
124.5

125.7
121.4

126.2
116.7

123 .9
113 .6

H)13O.8

Current high values are indicated by |H); "r" indicates revised.
iReverse trend adjusted index contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators (series 820).
2
Excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available.

112




G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the current
business contraction beginning with the tentative peak date, N o v e m b e r 1 9 7 3 .
(This date is based on the deflated composite index of coincident i n d i c a t o r s
BCD series 825.) To set the current cyclical movements into historical perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods are shown. T h e
grajiiic presentations of the data for the selected periods are superimposed
according to a special chart design, explained below:

This number indicates latest calendar month of
d a t a plot ted
( 1 2 = December.)

1. The objective of the chart is to compare
the pattern of the current business contra c ti on with c orre spon din g historical
patterns to facilitate critical assessment
of the amplitude, duration, and severity of
the indicators1 current movements.

Thi s scale shows
deviations ( p e r cent differences)
from reference
pea k l e v e l s .

2. The vertical line represents reference
peak dates. The current business contraction, beginning with the tentative business
cycle high in November 1973, and the corresponding historical periods, beginning
with July 1957 and November 1969, are presented so that their peak dates are placed
along this vertical line.

3. The horizontal line represents the level
of data at the current tentative business
cycle high (November 1973). It also represents data levels at the selected earlier
business cycle peaks, July 1957 and November
1969.
The peak levels are aligned along
the horizontal line f o r each
business
recession depicted.

4. For most series, deviations
(percent
differences) from the current peak level
are computed and plotted.
For
series
measured in percent units (such as the unemployment rate), these units (actual data)
are plotted rather than deviations from
reference peak levels. The table on the
right shows the numerical values of these
deviations.

5. For series that move counter to movements in general business activity (e.g.,
the unemployment rate), an inverted scale
i s used; i . e . , declines in data are shown
as upward movements in the plotted lines,
and increases in data, as downward movements in plotted lines.

Design a t i o n s:
"Coincident, »
"Leading," "Lagging," and "Unclassified" indicate
t h e NBER timing
classification
for the series.

T h i s scale shows
a c t u a l series
units and applies
only to the current
b u s i n e s s cycle
(heavy solid line).

1 I 11 I

-12

1I

I 1

M I r 1 I 11t 1 1I t 11 1 1

-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference peaks

+18

This scale measures
t i m e in months
before (negative
side) a n d a f t e r
( p o s i t i v e side)
b u s i n e s s cycle
peak dates.

6. In each chart four curves are shown. One curve describes the current business contraction (heavy solid line
). Two curves describe the 1957 and 1969 b u s i n e s s recessions
(starred line:*-*and knotted line: „ _ , respectively). The final curve ( b r o k e n line
) represents the median pattern of the five post-World War II recessions (tho s e with
peaks in 194S, 1953, 1957, i960 and I969). Deviations from reference peaks for all postWorld War II recession periods and the preceding year are presented in the adjacent table.
In addition, actual values are shown for the current period.

7. The business cycle (reference) peaks used in these charts are those designated by the
National Bureau of Economic Research as follows: Nov.l94£(lVQ 194B), July 1953(1110 1953)
July 1957 (IIIQ 1957), May i960 (IIQ I960), Nov. 1969 (IVQ 1969).

NOTE: November 1973 is not designated a business cycle peak. This tentative, benchmark date for the current business recession has
selected on the basis of the performance pattern of the deflated composite index of five coincident indicators ~ ^ D s e S e s S ? It
as a means of current economic analysis and may be changed as more information becomes available.




113

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
11111111

T

Deviations
from
preced.
peak

825. Five coincident indicators,
deflated
I
| Coincident "|

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

MOS.
FROM
RFIF .
PEAK

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

11/73

MONTH

AMD
YEAR

7
8

-i

o
140

• 135

- 2 .3
- 2 .k

138.2
138.8

6/74
7/74

.8
.k
.2
.0

138.2
137.4
13 6.2
132.3

3/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

-9
- 1 2 .0
- 1 2 .7
- 1 4 .2

12 3.2
125.2
124.1
122.0

12/74
1/7 5
2/75
3/75

17
13
19

-Ik . 1
- 1 3 .9
- 1 2 .k

122.2
122.4
124.6

4/7 5
5/75
6/75

9
in
11
12

-2
-3
-k
-7

41.

Employees on nonagricultural payrolls

Actual
data
for

current
cycle

Coi

SERIE ; 825
1967=inn
Percent

Deviations
from
preced.
peak

I I I I 11 I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II

DEVIATIONS
FROM

• 77,5(X

• 77,OO(

• 76,5O<

• 76,OO(
SERIE ~ 41
TI-IOUS.
• 130
7
8

i 120

- - 3

n .6
0 .7

78421
78479

6/74
7/74

9
10
11
12

1
1
l
0

.0
.2
.2
.6

78661
78844
788 65
78404

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

-0
-0
-1
-2

,3
.9
.5
#n

77690
77227
76708
76368

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/7 5

17
18
19

-2
-1
-1

.0
.9
.9

76349
76439
76464

4/7 5
5/75
6/75

SERIE

S

47. Industrial production index

• 75,oa
-1-4

• 74,5a

43. Unemployment rate, total
(inverted)
Actual
data
(percent)

k7
1967=100

-I

• 126
• 124

• 75,5O(

7
8

-1
-1

.3
.6

12 5.8
12 5.5

6/74
7/74

9
in
11
12

-1
-1
-2
-k

.5
.1
.5

12 5.2
12 5.6
124.8
121.7

3/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

- 7 .9
- i n .8
-12 .8
-13 .7

117 . 4
113.7
111.2
110.0

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18
19

- 1 3 .8
-Ik .0
- 1 3 .7

10 9 . 9
10 9. f>
110.0

4/75
5/7 5
6/75

CURRENT
ACTUAL
PATA

MONTH
ANP
VF.AR

3

• 122
• 120
PROM
Rrr.

ACTUAL
DATA
FROM

11/73

• 118

SERIES
• 116

• 114
• 112
• 110
—I—15

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 ii i ii 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-12-6

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference peaks

+24

• 108

43
PERCE IT

7
8

5.2
5.3

5 .2
5 .3

6/74
7/74

9
10
11
12

5.4
5.8
6.0
6.6

5 .4
5 .8
6 .0
6 .6

3/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

7.2
8.2
8.2
3 .7

7 .2
8 .2
8 .2
8 .7

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
13
19

8.9
9.2
3.6

8 .9
9 .2
8 .6

4/75
5/75
6/7 5

1957'

I IIII1 IIIII 1 IMI1 I1 1 I» I1 MI1 I» 1 1 » 1
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference peaks

NOTE: TABLES SHOWING DEVIATIONS FROM PEAK LEVELS FOR ALL POST-WORLD WAR II CYCLES ARE SHOWN IN THE JANUARY 1975 ISSUE FOR THFSE SERIFS.
NOVEMBER 1973 IS NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKO THIS TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATE FOR THE CURRENT BUSINESS RECESSION HAS 3FF.fl SFLFCTf
ON TJIE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTF,RM OF THE DEFLATED COMPOSITE INDEX OF FIVE COINCIDENT ! NDICATORS--BCD SERIES 825. IT SERVES AS A
MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AMP MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

114




G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
Deviations
from
preced.
peak

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

MOS.
FROM
REF.
PflAK

Percent
-

+1

o

DEVIATIONS
FROM

• 41.0

#40.6

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

11/73
SERIES

• 40.2
• 40.0

-2

• 3°-3

Deviations
from
preced.
peak

I I I | II I I I | I

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks

A

-3

-1.2
-1.0

40.1
40.2

6/7 4
1 Ilk

9
10
12

-1.0
-1.5
-1.2
-2.7

40.2
40.0
40.1
3 9.5

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

-3.0
-3.4
-4.4
-4.4

39.4
39.2
38.8
38.8

12/74
1/7 5
2/75
3/75

17
18
19

-3.7
-3.9
-3.7

39.1
39.0
39.1

4/75
5/ 7 5
6/7 5

• 110

• 1OO

• 3 -0

• 38.6

5. Initial claims for State unemployment
insurance (inverted)
Percent

-i-20

90

SERIE r

•

70

19
1 9 4 1 - 4 3 = 10

Q

7
8

-12.0
-18.8

8 9.79
82.82

6/74
7/74

9
10
11
12

-25.5
-33.2
-31.9
-29.7

76.0 3
68.12
69.44
71.74

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

-34.3
-28.9
-21.5
-17.9

67.07
72.56
80.1.0
8 3.78

12/74
1/7 5
2/75
3/7 5

17
18
19
20

-17.0
-11.7
-9.4
-8.4

84.72
90.10
92.40
93.44

4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75

• 38.8
_R

•

• 39.4
• 39.2

-4

for

current
cycle

l

• 39.6
-

Actual
data

1
HOURS

• 40.4

-1

MONTH
AND
YEAR

7
8

11

I|II

nTTTT

• 200

»175
5
SERIE S
THOUS.

#3

-+40

• 4OO

+80

• 450

-J+120

Months from reference peaks

# 3 5O

+60

+100

11111111111 i i i M 11111111 it 11 Hi 11
-12-6
0
+6
+12
+18 +24

OO

7
8

21.9
15.5

306
290

6/74
7/74

9
10
11
12

32.3
44.2
63.3
82.5

332
362
410
458

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

10 0 . 8
118.3
119.1
117.1

504
548

5 50
545

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18
19

106.0
97.6
139.8

517
496
602

4/75
5/7 5
6/75

SERIE S

• 150

• 125

~

0

29
1967=100

• 1OO

7
8

-20.4
-25.8

96.1
89.6

6/74
7/74

• 5OO

9
10
11
12

-33.8
-39.2
-42.1
-45.0

80.0
73.5
69.9
66.4

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

>55O

13
14
15
16

-40.3
-50.8
-50.0
-51.7

72.1
59.4
60.4
58.3

12/74
1/75
2/7 5
3/75

17
18
19

-40.3
-34.9
-33.9

72.1
78.6
79.8

4/75
5/75
6/75

--20

•

75

40

-12

-6

0

I

I

+6

+12

1
+18 +24

Months from reference peaks

NOTE: TARLES SHOWING DEVIATIONS FROM PEAK LEVELS FOR ALL POST-WORLD WAR II CYCLES ARE SHOWN IN THE JANUARY 1975 ISSUE FOR THESE SERIES.
NOVEMBER 1973 IS NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK. THIS TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATE FOR THE CURRENT BUSINESS RECESSION HAS P.EEN SEIECTED
ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE DEFLATED COMPOSITE INDEX OF FIVE COINCIDENT I NO ICATORS--BCD SERIES 825. IT SERVES AS A
MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE,




115

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
"I 1

11

!

Actual
data
(percent)

44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15 weeks and over (inverted)
I
I Lagging I

fr\

MOS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK

ACTUAL
DATA
FROM

11/73
SERIF!;

«

0.5

1969

1.0

1.5

2.0

I I 1 I 11 I I I I T T I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I DeviCURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

MONTH

AMP

1.0
1.0

1.0
1.0

6/71*
7/74

9
10
11
12

1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2

1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2

8/7U
9/74
10/7U
11/74

13
14
15
16

1.4
1.7
2.0
2.2

1.4
1.7
2.0
2.2

12/71+
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18
19

2.6
2.8
3.1

2.6
2.8
3.1

I+/75
5/75
6/75

DEVIATIONS
FROM

11/73
SERIES

2.5

1958 dollars

YF.AR

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

44
PF.RCF.NT

7
fl

0RTR5
FROM
R"F.
PEAK

ations
from
perced.
peak

18. Corporate profits after taxes,

> 60

+20

,1973
+15
55
+10

+ 5

0

-5

CURRENT QUARTER
ACTUAL
AiiP
YEAR
DATA

' 45
-10

18
R I L . POL.

-15
7.7

-13.0

5 2.9

II/7 4

18.5

58.2

I I 1/74

-4.5

45.9

IV/74

-26.0

35.9

1/75

-20

-25
5

• 35
MOS.
FROM
R"F.
PEAK

32. Vendor performance, companies
reporting slower deliveries

J

ACTUAL
PAT A
FROM

11/73
SERIES

Leading

CURRENT
ACTUAL
PATA

f 10 NTH
AND
VEAR

10. Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment

32
PERCENT

7
p>

7G
72

76

72

6/7 4
7/74

9
10
11
12

f>3
32

68
52
46
32

8/7 4
9/74
ID/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

22
18
16
17

22
18
16
17

12/74

17
IS
19

22
24
26

22
24
26

4/7 5
5/7 5
6/7 5

MOS.
FROM
RfiF.
PEAK

46

DEVIATIONS
FROM

11/73

CURRENT
ACTUAL
PATA

+25

.1957

+20

1/75
2/75
3/7 5

+15
+10

MONTH

+ 5

AMP

> 14

YEAR

SERIE > 10
RIL. POL .
3.3
13.1

13.84
15.16

30

9
10
11
12

0.9
5.1
-4.0
-7.9

13.52
14.08
12.87
12.34

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

HO

-J 20

13
14
15
in

1.8
-15.0
-15.4
-14.6

13.64
11,39
11.34
11.44

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

-15

17
IP.

-2.9
-3.1
-5.7

13.01
12.99
12.50

4/75
5/75
6/75

-

in

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference peaks

6/74
7/74

7
R

• 13

-5

#12

I t I I I I I It I I I I i I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I
-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from reference peaks

NOTE: NOVEMBER 1973 IS NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK. THIS TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATE FOR THE CURRENT BUSINESS RECESSION HAS REEN SELECTE
ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE DEFLATED COMPOSITE fNDEX OF FIVE COINCIDENT IND!CATORS--BCD SERIES 825. IT SERVES AS A
MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMAT!ON BECOMES AVAILABLE.




116

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current ssue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)

A
Accession rate, manufacturing
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dt
Capacity, manufacturers' adequacy
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, D l
Inventories, manufacturers', book value
Inventories, manufacturers', condition of
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, D l
Orders, new, manufacturing, D l
Prices, selling, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Prices, selling, retail trade, Dl
Prices, selling, wholesale trade. D l
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, D l
Sales, manufacturers'
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl

2
*61
D61
416
435
D446
412
414
D450
D440
0462
D460
D466
D464
D442
410
0444

JO

74

3/75

8/68

J7,43,44
16
15
15
16
!5
;15
17
16
17
17
17
17
16
:15
16

7K,84

12/7-1
12/74
1/75
1/75
l?/74
1/75
1/75
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
1 '•774
1/75
12 74

11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68

84
84
85
84
84
85
"A
85
85
85
85
85
84
85

Automobiles
Expenditures, personal consumption, N I A
Gross auto product, constant dollars, N I A

234
249

ii

70

18

72

9/74
9/74

10/69

D

Balance of payments
Balances
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current account
Current account and long-term capital
Goods and services
Goods, services and remittances
Government grants and capital transactions, net
Liabilities, liquid
Liabilities, liquid and nonliquid
Liquidity, net
Merchandise trade
Reserve position, U.S. official
Reserve transactions balance

575
517
519
250
515
570
530
532
521
500
534
522

48

86

50

87

7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
1/75
7/74

49

87

7/74

53
49

88
87

49

8'

49,51

8'

49

8'

53

81

50

8"

50

8*j

49

8'

5/69

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

Exports
Goods and services
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment, foreign direct, in the U.S
Investment income, military sales and services
Merchandise, adjusted
Military sales to foreigners
Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods
Orders, new, nonelectrical machinery
Securities, U.S.. purchases by foreigners
Total, excluding military aid
Transportation and services, receipts
Travelers, foreign, receipts from

252
542
560
540
536
546
506
508
564
502
548
544

51
52

87

53

88

51

87

51
52

87

48

88

88
86

48

86

53

88

48

86

52

88

52

88

51
52

87

7/74
1/75
7/71
7/74
7/74
7/74
4/74
5/74
7/74
1/75
1/75
7/74

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
8/68#

7/74
1/75

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
11/72
11/72
5/69

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

Imports
Goods and services
Income on foreign investment in the U.S

253
543

88

Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investments abroad, U.S. direct
Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Military expenditures abroad, U.S
Securities, foreign, U.S. purchases
Total, general
Transportation and services, payments for
Travelers abroad, U.S., payments by
Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates - See Interest rates.
Banking and other capital transactions, net, BOP

541
561
537
547
565
512
549
545
*72
112
575

52

88

36,43

82

33

81

7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
1/75
1/75
7/74
4/75
4/75

53

88

7/74

51

87

53

88

51
52

87
88

53

88

48

86

52

88

Bonds-See Interest rates.
Borrowing - See Credit.
Budget - See Government.
Building - See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, ratio to consumer goods
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl . . . .
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation
Business incorporations

•29
853
•61
D61
14
•12
13

46
34

84

25,39

77

25

77

4/75
3/75
12/74
12/74
4/75
6/75
6/75

28

79

11/74

26,40

78

62

96

27,43,44 78,84
81

4/69
11/68
11/68
11/68

12/74

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Source:; of
Series," following this index)

number

Civilian labor force, total
Coincident indicators, five, Cl
Coincident indicators, five, Cl, rate of change
Coincident indicators, five, deflated, Cl
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, not change .

841
820
820
825
•72
112

Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Compensation of employees, NIA
Compensation of employees, as percent of national
income NIA
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
Earnings, average hourly, production workers.
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real spendable, average weekly
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Five coinciders
Five coinciders, deflated
Five coinciders, rate of change
Lagging indicators, six
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Marginal employment adjustments
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
Twelve leaders, original trend
Twelve leaders, reverse trend adjusted
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts, total value
Contracts awarded for commercial and indus. bldgs. .
Expenditures, business, and machinery and
equipment sales
Housing starts
Residential structures, GPDI, constant dot., NIA . . .
Residential structures, GPDI, current dollars, N I A . . .
Consumer goods, ratio of business equipment to
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, net change
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices - See also International comparisons.
All items
All items, change in
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures, personal - See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
Corporate profits - See Profits.
Costs - See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, change in
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, net change
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, change in
Current account, balance, BOP
Current account and long-term capital, balance, BOP . . . .

Currer t issue
(page n irnbers)

Series

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

4/72
11/68
11/68

83
82
81

6/75
5/74
6/74
5/74
4/75
4/75

58

92

4/75

10/72

59
16

92
71

4/75
10/74

10/72
10/69

280A

19

73

10/74

10/69

746

58

93

4/75

10/72

746C

59

93

4/75

10/72

60
37

65
37
36,43
33

745
745 C
280

94
83

10/72
11/72

740

58

92

1/75

6/72

740C

59

92

1/75

6/72

741

58

92

1/75

6/72

741C
859
748
749
53

59

92

1/75
2/75
10/74
10/74
8/74

6/72
10/72
6/72
6/72
7/68

5/74
5/74
6/74
5/74

11/68

820
825
820
830
814
815
813
816
817
811
810
•29

8
9
69
28
248
244
853
66
•113
39

58

92

59

93

59

93

23

76

37

83

37

83

65
37

83

11/68
11/68

112
112

112

5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74

26,4 0

78

4/75

25

77

26

77

6/75
8/74
4/75
9/74
9/74
3/75
3/75
3/75
4/74

9/68#
6/72

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
11/68

38

83

38

83

38

83

38

83

38

83
112

27

78

26

78

18

72

12

70

62

96

36

82

34,41

81

34

81

56,66

90,103

56

90

56

90

56

90

5/74
5/74
4/69

10/69
11/68
10/72
10/72
11/72

56

90

45

84

7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
1/75

•10

25,39

77

4/75

9/68

112
110
•72
66
•113
39
33
517
519

33
34

81

4/75
1.0/74
4/75
3/75
3/75
4/74
4/75
7/74
7/74

11/72
7/64
11/72
10/72
10/72
11/72

781
781C
783
782
784
435

36,43

81
82

36

82

34,41

81

34

81

33

81

49

87

49

87

D

Business inventories - See Inventories.
Business loans - See Bank loans.
Buying policy, production materials

26

C
Canada - See International comparisons.
Capacity, manufacturers', adequacy of
Capacity, ratio of output to
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, mfg., newly approved
Capital appropriations, newly approved, Dl
Capital consumption allowances, NIA
Capital investment - See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, net, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, net, corporate, current dollars

416
850
97
11
D11
296
814
35
34

•Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.

45

84

62

96

27

78

26

77

63

97

17

72

38
31

83
80

31

80

1/75
8/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
10/74
5/74
8/74
8/74

11/68
.....

10/69

1/72
1/72

Defense
Contract awards, military prime
Military expenditures abroad, U.S., BOP
Military sales to foreigners, BOP
Obligations incurred, procurement
Obligations incurred, total
Orders, new, defense products
Orders, new, defense products industries
Purchases of goods and services, NIA
Deficit - See Government.
Deflators - See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Depreciation, NIA
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing

625
547
546
621
616
648
647
264

55

14,55

71,89

39
296

34

81

17

72

061
D11

89

52

88

52

88

55

89

55

89

55

89

55

46

r

63

97

A

4/74
7/74
7/74
4/74
4/74
8/74
8/72
10/74

9/68*
10/69

4/74
10/74

11/72
10/69

12/74
5/74

11/68

5/69
5/69

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion indt

GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and N I A , national income and product account.




117

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Diffusion indexes-Con.
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components.
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, avg. wkly., unemployment insurance . .
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Orders, new, durable goods industries
Orders, new, durable goods industries, components .
Orders, new, manufacturing
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade
Prices, selling, retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods, components .
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, retail stores
Sales, retail stores, components
Workweek, average, production workers, mfg
Workweek, average, production workers, mfg.,
components
Disposable personal income - See Income.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

D446
D41
D41
D23
D23
D47
D47
D5
D450
D6
D6
D440
D19
D462
D460
0466
D464
D58
D58
D34
D442
D444
D54
D54
Dl

Tables

46

85

64

98

Histor ca
data

Series
descriptions

[issue date) issue date)

12/74
2/75

11/68

100
63

97
100

64

98

63

98

47

85

63

97

46

99
PA

10/74

4/69

3/75

101

63

97

47

85

47

85

47

85

47

85

64

98

4/74
12/74
10/74

6/69
11/68

12/7^
10/7
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
7/75

11/68
5/69
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
6/69

102
63

97

46

85

46

85

64

98

1/75
12/74
12/74
3/75

11/68
11/68
6/72

102
63

D1

97

2/75

99

E
Earnings - See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Employed persons in civilian labor force
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components.
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed
Initial claims, average weekly, unemployment
insurance
Initial claims, avg. wkly, unemployment insur., Dl . .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagric. establishments., rate of c h g . . .
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, production workers, mfg
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed persons in civilian labor force, total . . .
Unemployment rate, both sexes, 16-19 years
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over . . . .
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present .
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate, white
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing . . . .
Workweek, production workers, mfg., components..
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing, Dl .
Equipment - See Investment, capital.
Exports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade.

2
841
842
0446
*41
D41
D41
46
860
*5
05
3
48
48
813
21
42
843
846
845
•44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
•1
D1
D1

20

74

60

94

60

94

46

85

21,41

75
100

64
21

98

62

96

20,39

74

63

98

20

74

21

74

74

65
38
20

83

21

75

74

60

94

60

94

60

94

22,43
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
20,39

75
75
94
75
94
75
94
74
99
97

63

3/75
6/75
6/75
12/74
2/75
2/75
3/75
3/75
6/75
4/74
3'75
3/75
3/75
5/74
2/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
3/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
2/75

8/68
4/72
4/72
11/68
8/68

12/74

6/69
6/69
8/68#
8/68#
8/68#
12/74
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
8/68

2/75

F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government - See Government.
Final sales-See Sales.
Financial flows, sensitive, Cl
Fixed weighted price index, NIA
Foreign series - See International comparisons.
Foreign trade - See also Balance of payments.
Balance, goods and services, NIA
Balance, merchandise trade
Exports, goods and services, NIA
Exports, merchandise, excl. military aid shipments . .
Imports, goods and services, NIA
Imports, merchandise
Net exports of goods and services, NIA
Net exports of goods and services, percent of
GNP, NIA
France - See International comparisons.
Free reserves

119

817
211

250
500
252
502
253
512
250

35

82

38

83

56

90

13

71

48

86

13

71

48

86

13

71

48

86

13

71

6/74

11/73

5/74
8/74

9/74
1/75
9/74
1/75
9/74
1/75
9/74

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

250A

19

73

9/74

10/69

93

35

82

10/74

11/72

G
Government - See also Balance of Payments and Defense.
Budget, NIA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
Government surplus or deficit, total

602
601
600
298

54

89

54

89

54

89

17

72

8/74
8/74
8/74
10/74

7/68#
7/68#
7/68#
10/69

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

jOvernment-Con.
Government grants and capital transactions, BOP
Government purchases of goods and services, NIA
Federal Government, constant dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
Federal Government, percent of GNP
Federal, State and local governments
National defense
State and local governments, constant dollars
State and local governments, current dollars
State and local governments, percent of GNP
Gross national product
Auto product, gross, constant dollars, NIA
GNP, constant dollars, NIA

Current issue

Series

(page numbers)

number
Charts

Tables

570

53

88

7/74

5/69

263
262
262A
260
264
267
266
266A

18

72

14

71

19

73

10/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
10/74
10/74
10/74
10/74

11/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
11/73
10/69
10/69

249
*205

GNP, constant dollars, differences, NIA
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes, NIA
GNP, current dollars, NIA
GNP, current dollars, differences, NIA
GNP, current dollars, percent changes, NIA
GNP, gap (potential less actual)
GNP, potential, constant dollars
Per capita GNP, constant dollars, NIA
Per capita GNP, current dollars, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, differences, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, percent changes, NIA . . . . . .
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private
product, NIA
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private
product, change in, NIA
Gross private domestic investment - See Investment,
capital.

205B
205C
*200
200B
200C
207
206
217
215
210
210B
210C

Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to number of persons
unemployed
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
Average workweek
Components
Diffusion index
•.
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits
Res dential structures, constant dollars, GPDI, NIA .
Res dential structures, current dollars, GPDI, NIA . .
Res dential structures, percent of GNP, GPDI, NIA .
Vacancy rate, rental housing

14

71

14 55

71 89

18

72

14

71

19

73

18

72

9,18,23,
42,61

69,76,

69

69
69

65*"
9,23,42

69,76

65

69

69
61

118

9/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
1/75
1/75
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74

95

95

61

95

9
9

69

9

69

69
69

211

56

90

8/74

211C

56

90

8/74

46

21

74

3/75

860

62

96

3/75

20

74

20,39

74

2/75
2/75

21
•1
Dl
01
28
*29
248
244
244A
857

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

12/74

12/74
8/68

99
63

97

2/75

78

6/72
4/69

12
19

70
73

62

96

4/75
4/75
9/74
9/74
9/74
5/74

210
210B
210C

9

69
69
69

8/74
8/74
8/74

10/69
10/69
10/69

280

16

71

10/74

10/69

280A

19

73

10/74

10/69

745

58

92

4/75

10/72

745C

59

92

4/75

10/72

746

58

93

4/75

10/72

746C
225
224

59
10

93
69

10

69

4/75
8/74
8/74

10/72
10/69
10/69

26

26,40

78

18

72

10/69
10/69
10/72

1
Implicit pi ice deflator, GNP
Differences
Percent changes
Imports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade.
1 ncornG

Connpensation of employees, NIA
Connpensation of employees, as percent of
national income, NIA
Connpensation, average hourly, all employees,
vate nonfarm
Connpensation, average hourly, all employees,
pr vate nonfarm, percent change
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Disposable personal income, constant dollars, NIA . .
Disposable personal income, current dollars, NIA . . .
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant
dollars, NIA
Disposable personal income, per capita,curr.dol., NIA
Earnings, average hourly, production workers.
private nonfarm
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers.
private nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real spendable, average weekly
Income on foreign investments in U.S., BOP
Income on U.S. investments abroad, BOP
Interest, net, NIA
Interest, net, percent of national income, NIA
Investment income, military sales and services, BOP .
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services, BOP
National income, NIA
Personal income, monthly
Personal income, NIA
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation
adjustment, NIA
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation
adjustment, percent of national income, NIA

227
226

10

69

10

69

9/74
9/74

10/69
10/69

740

58

92

1/75

6/72

740C

59

92

1/75

6/72

741

58

92

1/75

6/72

741C
859
543
542
288
288A
540

59

92

58

92

52

68

52

88

1/75
2/75
1/75
1/75
10/74
10/74
7/74

6/72
10/72
5/69
5/69
10/69
10/69
5/69
5/69
10/69
7/68
10/69

16

72

19

73

51

87

541
220
*52
222

51
10

69

23,42

76

10

69

7/74
8/74
8/74
8/74

286

16

72

10/74

10/69

286A

19

73

10/74

10/69

87

'Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.




Historical
Series
data
descriptions
issue date) issue date)

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Income-Con.
Proprietors' income, NIA
Proprietors' income, pet. of national income, NIA . .
Rental income of persons, NIA
Rental income of persons, percent of national
income, NIA
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial materials prices, Dl
Industrial production - See also International comparisons.
U.S., components
U.S., Dl
U S index
U S rate of change
Insured unemployment
Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur. . .
Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur., Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net, NIA
Interest, net, as percent of national income, NIA
Interest rates
Business loans, short-term, bank rates
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, residential
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Inventories
Business inventories, change in, NIA
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Finished goods, book value, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales, ratio, mfg. and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Inventory valuation adjustment - See Profits.
Manufacturers', book value
Manufacturers', condition of
Manufacturing and trade, book value
Manufacturing and trade, change in
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies, manufacturers', change in.
book value
Materials purchased, higher inventories
Production materials, buying policy
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog . . . .
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing, Dl . . . .
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . .
Construction contracts, total value
Construction expenditures, business, and machinery
and equipment sales
Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods
Gross private domestic investment, NIA
Equipment, producers' durable
Inventories, business, change in - See Inventories.
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, current dollars
Nonresidential, total, percent of GNP
Structures, nonresidential
Structures, residential, constant dollars
Structures, residential, current dollars
Structures, residential, percent of GNP
Total

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Tables

Charts

282
282A
284

16

71

19
16

73
71

284A
748
749
53
*23
D23
D23

19
59

93

59

93

D47
D47
•47

47
*5
D5
45
288
288A
*67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115

73

23

30,40
63

79
100
97

Historical
Series
escriptions
data
issue date) issue date)

10/74
10/74
10/74

10/69
10/69
10/69

10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
10/74

10/69
6/72
6/72
7/68
4/69

10/74

4/69*

101
64

98

23 42 67 76,103
65

20,39

74

63
22

75

16
19

72
73

36,43

82

98

3/75
3/75
11/74

11/68
11/68

6/75
4/74
3/75
10/74
10/74

6/69
6/69
6/69
10/69
10/69
12/74
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64

35

82

35
36
35
36
35

82
82
82
82
82

35

82

7/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74

66
66
66
66
66
56,66
66

103
103
103
103
103
90,103
103

11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
7/75
11/74

9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
5/69
9/72

67

103

67

103

67
67

104
104

10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72

125

67
67
23,42,67
67

104
103
76,103
104

7/74
1/74
1/74
7/74
1/74
1/74
3/75
1/74

143
146
147
148
142
19
145

68

104

68
68
68
68
68
68

104
104
104
104
104
104

15

71

15

71

133
136
137
138
132
781
135
123
126
127
128
121
122
•47

271
275
246
245
245A
65
851
815
412
414
*71
*31
D450
20
37
26

18

72

12,28

70,78

19

73

29

79

62

96

38

83

45
45

84
84

29,43
28,40

79

47
28
28
28

97
11
D11
814
9
8

27

69
853

26

10/72
11/68
10/72

11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
12/74
11/74

10/74
10/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
4/74
12/74
5/74

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
9/68
2/69

78
85

1/75
1/75
12/74
12/74
12/74

11/68
11/68
2/69
2/69
11/68

79
78
79

4/74
4/75
11/74

9/68
12/74
12/74

78
77

5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
6/75

63

97

38
26

83
77

25

77

27

78

62

96

8/74
3/75

9/68#
11/68

243

12

70

9/74

10/69

247
241
241A
242
248
244
244A
240

18

72

12

70

9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

nvestment, capital-Con.
Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense . . .
Plant and equipment, contracts and orders
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures . . .
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures, Dl
nvestment, foreign, BOP
Foreign direct investments in the U.S
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Income on foreign investments in the U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investment income, U.S., military sales and services .
U.S. direct investments abroad
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
taly - See International comparisons.

Curren issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

24
*10
*61
D61

Tables

26

77

25,39
27,43,44

78,84

46

84

Series
Historical
descriptions
data
issue date) issue date)

77

8/74
4/75
12/74
12/74

9/68
9/68
11/68
11/68

7/74
7/74
1/75
1/75

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

560
564
543
542

53

88

53

88

52

88

52

88

541
540
561
565

51

87

51

87

53
53

88
88

7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74

68
*62
63

32
32,43
32

80
80
80

8/74
8/74
4/75

7/68
11/68
10/72

63C
*17

32
30,41

80
80

4/75
8/74

10/72
11/68

830
3

37
20

83
74

5/74
3/75

11/68

530

50

87

7/74

532
14
521

50
34
49

87
81
87

7/74
4/75
7/74

48
48
813

21
65
38

74

3/75
3/75
5/74

8/68#
8/68#

83

85
102

33
33

81
81

7/75
7/75

10/72
10/72

103
33
118

33
33
36

81
81
82

7/75
4/75
6/74

7/64

8/74
4/75
8/74
8/72
8/74

J
Japan - See International comparisons.

L
Labor cost per unit of gross product
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy . . . .
Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy,
percent change
Labor cost, price per unit of
Labor force - See Employment and unemployment.
Lagging indicators, six, Cl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Leading indicators- See Composite indexes.
Liabilities, liquid, to all foreigners, BOP
Liabilities, liquid and certain nonliquid, to foreign
official agencies, BOP
Liabilities of business failures
Liquidity balance, net, BOP
Loans - See Credit.

8/68#
5/69
5/69

M
Machinery - See Investment, capital.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagricuitural establishments, rate of chg. .
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments and Foreign
trade.
Military -See Defense.
Money supply, change in
Money supply (Ml)
Money supply plus time deposits (M2)
Money supply, time deposits and deposits at
nonbank thrift institutions (M3)
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, residential

10/72

N
National defense - See Defense.
National Government - See Government.
National income - See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
Defense products
Defense products industries
Durable goods industries
Components
Diffusion index
Export orders, durables except autos
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI, NIA
Constant dollars, total
Current dollars, total
Percent of GNP, total
Structures

24
*10
648
647
*6
D6
D6
506
508
D440

26

77

25,39

77

55

89

55

25,39

77
99
97

9/68
9/68
9/68#
9/68

10/74
4/74
5/74
12/74

11/68

70

9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74

10/69
10/69
10/69

67

104

1/74

32,43

80

8/74
4/75
4/75
4/75
8/74
2/75

63
48

86

48

86

46

84

247
241
241A
242

18
12
19

73

12

121

72
70

8/68#

0

19
12

73
70

18

72

12
19

70
73

12

70

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders - See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Output, labor cost per unit of
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy, change in . .
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
Output to capacity, manufacturing
Overtime hours of production, mfg., avg. weekly

*62
770
770C
858
850
21

58

93

59

93

58

93

62

96

20

74

11/68
10/72
10/72
6/68
12/74

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.




119

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Historical
Series
data
lescriptions
issue date) issue date)

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Tables

Historical
Series
descriptions
data
issue date) (issue date)

jles
Personal consumption expenditures, NIA
Automobiles
Durable goods
Durable goods, except autos
Nondurable goods
Services
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income - See Income.
Plant and equipment - See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Business expenditures for, Dl
Contracts and orders for
Potential gross national product
Price indexes
Consumer - See also International comparisons.
All items
All items, change in
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Deflators, NIA
Fixed weighted, gross private product
Fixed weighted, gross private product, change in . . .
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Differences
Percent changes
Industrial materials
Industrial materials, components
Industrial materials, Dl
Labor cost, price per unit of
Stock - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Wholesale
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Industrial commodities, change in
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components
Manufactured goods, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime rate charged by banks
Producers' durable equipment, GPDI, NIA
Production - See Industrial production and GNP.
Production materials, buying policy
Production of business equip, to consumer goods, ratio . .
Productivity
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy,
change in
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ. . .
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment, NIA
Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment,
percent of national income, NIA
Corporate, undistributed, plus inventory valuation
adjustment, NIA
Manufacturing, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, net, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to income originating in corp. bus. . . .
Proprietors' income, NIA
Proprietors' income, percent of national income, NIA . . .
Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting
higher inventories

Rental income of persons, NIA
Rental income of persons, as percent of national income,
NIA
Reserve position, U.S., BOP
Reserve transactions balance, BOP
Reserves, free
Residential structures - See also Housing.
Residential structures, constant dollars, GPDI, NIA
Residential structures, current dollars, GPDI, NIA .
Residential structures, percent of GNP, GPDI, NIA

Salaries - See Compensation.

234
232
233
236
237
231
230
230A

11,18
11

i/74
9/74
i/74
/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

12/74
12/74
4/75
1/75

11/68
11/68
9/68

61
D61
10
206

27,43,44
46
25,39
61

78,84

781
781C
783
782
784

56,66
56
56

90,103
90
90
90
90

7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
774
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
10/74

10/69
10/69
10/69
4/69

63
30,41

90
90
9
9
69
79
100
97
80

10/74
8/74

4/69
11/68

19
D19

30,40
3

79
97

10/74
10/74

5/69
5/69

750
752
751
55
55C
58
D58
D58

57
57
57
31,57
57
31,57

7/75
75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75

6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69

7/75
8/74

6/69
11/68

D462
D460
0466
D464
109
243

47
47
47
47
36
12

12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
6/74
9/74

11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/73
10/69

11/74
3/75

12/74
11/68

4/75
4/75

10/72
6/68

8/74
8/74
10/74

1/72
7/68
10/69

286A

10/74

10/69

294
D34
D442
15
816
22
282
282A

10/74
1/75
12/74
8/74
5/74
8/74
10/74
10/74

37

4/75

211
211C
210
210B
210C
23
D23
D23

64
30,41

26
853

91
91
80,91
91
80,91
102
98
80
85

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

770

30
30,41
16

284A

534
522
93
248
244
244A

19
50
49
35

10/74
7/74
7/74
10/74

18
12
19

9/74
9/74
9/74

10/69
11/68
3/69

Final sales, NIA
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade . . .
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturers' sales, total value
Manufacturing and trade sales
Manufacturing and trade sales, net, Dl
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
Saving, NIA
Capital consumption allowances
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving to disposable personal income . . .
Profits, undistributed corporate, plus inventory
valuation adjustment
Surplus or deficit, government
Securities purchases, BOP
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Selling prices - See Prices, selling.
Sensitive financial flows, Cl
Shipments, ratio of manufacturers' unfilled orders to .
State and local government - See Government.
Stock prices - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus - See Government.

ransportation and other services, payments, BOP . . .
ransportation and other services, receipts, BOP
ravel
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad, BOP
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S., BOP .
reasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields

Unemployment
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed,
ratio
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur. . .
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur., Dl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Persons unemployed, civilian labor force
Unemployment rates
Both sexes, 16-19 years
Females, 20 years and over
15 weeks and over
Insured, average weekly
Males, 20 years and over
Married males, spouse present
Negro and other races
Total
White
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change in
Unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods indus. .
United Kingdom - See International comparisons.

270
274
273
57

15
15
18
24
62

10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
12/74

10/69
10/69

78
84
76
85
76
76
102
98

8/74
1/75
12/74
12/74
4/75
3/75

9/68#
11/68
2/69
11/68

3/75

6/72

72
72
72

10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74

10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68

294
298

10/74
10/74

10/69
10/69

564
565

7/74
7/74

5/69
5/69

817
852

5/74
8/74

9/68

30,40

10/74
10/74

5/69
5/69

549
548

52
52

1/75
1/75

5/69
5/69

545
544
114
115

52
52
35
35

7/74
7/74
6/74
6/74

5/69
5/69
7/64
7/64

62
20,39
63
20
iO

3/75
6/75
4/74
3/75
6/75

6/69
6/69
8/68#
4/72

60
60
22,43
22
60
22
60
22,41
60

6/75
6/75
6/75
3/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75

4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72

27
29
62

8/74
8/74
8/74

9/68
9/68
9/68

5/74
11/74

10/72
12/74

7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75

6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69

7/75
2/75

6/69
8/68

D444
59
*54
D54
D54

27
45
24,42
46
24
24,42

296
290
292
854

860
*5
D5
3
843

845
»44
45
844
40
848
•43
847
96
25
852

120

6/72

7/68
10/69
10/69
Vacancy rate in rental housing
Vendor performance

10/69
5/69
11/72

10/69
10/69

Wages and salaries - See Compensation.
West Germany - See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Industrial commodities, change in
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components
Manufactured goods, Dl
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Workweek of production workers, mfg., components .
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, D l .

857
32

750
752
751
55
55C
58
D58
D58
•1
D1
D1

57
57
57
31,57
57
31,57

91
91
91
80,91
91
80,91
102

64
20,39

'Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.




7/68
2/69

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect relationships or order among series.
See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide" to find chart
and table page numbers for each series and the issues in
which historical data and series descriptions appeared.
"M" following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q"
indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter). Following each source is an indication (A1,
B3, etc.) of the charts and tables in which that series appears.
These charts and tables are listed in the table of contents.
"D" preceding a series number indicates the series is a
diffusion index. In section B, asterisks (*) are used to
indicate series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of
cyclical indicators. These series are shown separately in chart
B8.

233.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
except automobiles, in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A3)

234.

Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

236.

Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable
goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

237.

Personal consumption expenditures, services, in
current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

240.

Gross private domestic investment, total (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A4)

241.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)

A National Income and Product
Gross national product in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, E5)

241A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, E1, E5)

242.

210.

Implicit price deflator, gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A1)

243.

215.

Per capita gross national product in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)

200.

?17.

!20.

!22.

.24.

Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
National income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

244.

Imports of goods and services; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5)

260.

Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)

262.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A6)

262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
263.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

264.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6, D3)

266.

State and local government purchases of goods
and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)

266A. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)

267.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)

State and local government purchases of goods and
services, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

270.

Final sales, durable goods (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

271.

Change in business inventories, durable goods
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

273.

Final sales (series 205 minus series 246), in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A10)

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)

244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures as a percent of gross national product
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all
industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4, B4)

274.

Final sales, nondurable goods, (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

275.

245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

Change in business inventories, nondurable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

280.

Compensation of employees (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

245.

Personal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
Disposable personal income in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

253.

246.

Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

25.

Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

26.

Per capita disposable personal income in current
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)

247.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

27.

Per capita disposable personal income in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)

248.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

30.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

249.

Gross auto product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

30A. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

250.

31.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A3, A10)

250A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

32.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

252.

280A. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(All)
282.




Exports of goods and services; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5)

of Com(A8)

282A. Proprietors' income as a percent of national income
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)
284.

Net exports of goods and services; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5)

Proprietors' income (Q).-Department
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Rental income of persons (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

284A. Rental income of persons as a percent of national
income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(All)
286.

Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A8)

286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)

121

TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued

15.

39.

Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 3
days and over (EOM).-American Bankers Assoc
ation; (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B(

Net interest (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
(B5)

*16.

40.

288A. Net interest as a percent of national income ( Q ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(AID

Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5, B8)

Unemployment rate, married males, spouse preset
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Stati
tics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of tr
Census
(B'

*17.

Index of price per unit of labor cost-ratio, index
of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and
supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of
output (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)

*41.

Number of employees on nonagricultural payroll
establishment survey (M).-Department of Labc
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E<

42.

Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultur
activities, labor force survey (M).-Department i
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department i
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B

*43.

Unemployment rate, total (M).—Department i
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department i
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1, B!

*44.

Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M).
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, ar
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1B

45.

Average weekly insured unemployment rate, Sta
programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpow
Administration
(B

46.

Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapt
(M).-The Conference Board
(B

*47.

Index of industrial production (M).-Board of Gc
ernors of the Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1,E

288.

290.

Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

292.

Personal saving (Q).-Department
Bureau of Economic Analysis

294.

Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

18.

Corporate profits after taxes in 1958 dollars ( Q ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)

296.

Capital consumption allowances, corporate and
noncorporate (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

*19.

Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks ( M ) . Standard and Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8, E3, F3)

20.

298.

Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories
of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)

21.

Average weekly overtime hours of production
workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

of

Commerce,
(A9)

B Cyclical Indicators
22.

Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating
incorporate business (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

*23.

Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)

Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

24.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).-Department of
Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B1, B8, E3)

Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)

25.

Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)

48.

26.

Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M).-National Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)

*52.

*1.

Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)

2.

Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

3.

*5.

*6.

8.

9.

*10.

11.

Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
Index of construction contracts, total value
(M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3)
Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (B3)

Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B3, B8)

Index of net business formation (M) .-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3, B8)

13.

Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)

14.

122

Current liabilities of business failures
and Bradstreet, Inc.




(M).-Dun
(B6)

of Commen
(B2, B

53.

Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturii
and construction (M).-Department of Commen
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E

*54.

Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-Depa
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E

28.

New private housing units started, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)

*29.

Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)

55.
*31.

Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census
(B4, B8)

Index of wholesale prices, industrial commoditi
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Stat
tics
(B5, D<

*56.

32.

Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(B4)

Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Department
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bure;
of the Census
(B2, B

57.

Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q).-Depa
ment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B

58.

Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goo
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Stat
tics
(B5, D4, E3, E

59.

Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (M).-Departme
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E

*61.

Business expenditures for new plant and equipme
total (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau
Economic Analysis
(B3, B8, C1,C

*62.

Index of labor cost per unit of output, to
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation
employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages a
salaries and supplements to wages and salaries)
index of industrial production, manufacturi
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of E(
nomic Analysis, and the Board of Governors of t
Federal Reserve System
(B5, E

33.

Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference Board.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3, E3)

*12.

Personal income (M).-Department
Bureau of Economic Analysis

Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies ( M ) . Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)

34.

Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars ( Q ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)

35.

Net cash flow, corporate, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

37.

Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of
purchased materials (M).-National Association of
Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B4)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued

118.

Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages
(M).-Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)

119.

Federal funds rate (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

*200.

Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in
section A.

*205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.

245.

Change in business inventories (GNP component)
(Q). See in section A.

810.

Twelve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted
composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 3 1 , and 113) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

811.

Twelve leading indicators-composite index prior to
reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10,
12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 3 1 , and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

813.

Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and
commercial construction put in place) ( M ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)

Marginal employment adjustments-leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) ( M ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

814.

Capital investment commitments-leading composite
index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) ( M ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)

815.

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6, B8)

Inventory investment and purchasing—leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 3 1 , and 37)
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

816.

85.

Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus
currency) [M1] (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

817.

93.

Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)

96.

Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)

97.

Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
(EOQ).-The Conference Board. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)

63.

Index of unit labor cost, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5)

65.

Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)

66.

Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally
adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted
figure for previous month to obtain current figure
(B6)

*67.

Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities
(Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6, B8)

68.

Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product
(1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of
current-dollar compensation of employees to gross
corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

69.

*71.

*72.

102.

103.

109.

Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)

110.

Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
in credit markets (Q).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

112.

Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).—Board
of Governors; of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)

*113.

Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 4 1 , 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7, E5)

825.

Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index
(includes series 4 1 , 43, 47, 52D, and 56D) ( M ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

830.

Six lagging indicators-composite index (includes
series 44, 6 1 , 62, 67, 7 1 , 72) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

C Anticipations and Intentions
61.

410.

Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)

115.

Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-Treasury
Department
(B6)

116.

Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-First Mational City Bank of New York and
Treasury Department
(B6)

117.

Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(B6)




D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)

D Other Key Indicators
55.

Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M). See in section B.

58.

Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
See in section B.

211.

Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D4)

250.

Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

252.

Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

253.

Imports of goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

264.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
national defense (Q). See in section A.

500.

Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series
512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)

502.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)

Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(C1)

Manufacturers'
inventories, total
book value
(EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(C1)

414.

Percent of total book value of inventories held by
manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less
percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

(CD
416.

Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12
months, less percent classifying existing capacity as
excessive (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(C1)

Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(CD

D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)

Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries (Q). See in section B.

412.

Net change in consumer installment debt (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8)

114.

Sensitive financial flows-leading composite index
(includes series 33, 85, 112, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

820.

Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's [M2]
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M3] (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)

Profitability-leading composite index (includes series
16, 17, and 19) (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

435.

123

TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued

506.

Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods
except motor vehicles and parts (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)

508.

Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery
(M).-McGraw-Hill Publications Company, Economics
Department
(D1)

512.

515.

517.

519.

521.

522.

530.

532.

534.

546.

Military sales to foreigners; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

748.

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all 'industries—first year average (mean) changes (Q).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D5)

547.

U.S. military expenditures abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

749.

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries—average (mean) changes over life of contract
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

548.

Receipts from transportation and other services; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

750.

Index of wholesale prices, all commodities ( M ) . Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)

549.

Payments for transportation and other services; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

751.

Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)

560.

Foreign direct investments in the U.S.; U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(D2)

752.

Index of wholesale prices, farm products ( M ) . Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)

Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

561.

U.S. direct investments abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

770.

Index of output per man-hour, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

564.

Foreign purchases of U.S. securities; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

781.

Index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4, F.1)

Balance on current account and long term capital;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

565.

U.S. purchases of foreign securities; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

782.

Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

783.
570.

Government grants and capital transactions, net; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Index of consumer prices, commodities less food
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D4)

Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

575.

Banking and other capital transactions, net; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

784.

Index of consumer prices, services (M).—Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all
foreigners, total outstanding; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

600.

Federal Government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

841.

Total civilian labor force, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

601.

Federal Government receipts; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

842.

Total civilian employment, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

843.

Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

844.

Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)

Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding
military grants) to foreign official agencies, total
outstanding; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding
military grants; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

602.

Federal Government expenditures; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

616.

Defense Department obligations incurred, total,
excluding military assistance (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

621.

Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
'
(D3)

536.

Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

537.

Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

625.

845.

Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)

U.S. investment income, military sales, and other
services exports, excluding military grants; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

647.

New orders, defense products industries ( M ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D3)

846.

648.

New orders, defense products (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)

Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D6)

847.
740.

Index of average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Unemployment rate, white, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

848.

Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Unemployment rate, Negro and other races, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)

858.

Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

859.

Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents)
on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1967 dollars
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

540.

541.

542.

Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures
and other services imports; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
Income on U.S. investments abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

741.
543.

544.

545.

124

Income on foreign investments in the U.S.; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

745.

Payments by U.S. travelers abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

746.




Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)