Full text of Business Conditions Digest : July 1967
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bed
BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
July 1967
DATA THROUGH JUNE
^W;^:m.
I^Sfc.-.
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in t|ie Economic
'Research and Analysis Division under tlie
direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A. Beckman^Specifications for
computer prdcessing, '
........
John C. Musgrave—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal
adjustment methods,
• - ' Betty Pi Tun$tail-LColletii6rillan!d cbmpil^
tion of basic data,
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Alexander B. Trowbridge, Secretary
William H. Shaw, Asst. Secy., Economic Affairs
Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine
'Censky of th? Administrative and Publications i
Services Division. Stuart I. Freeman is responsible for publication design.
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A, Ross Eckler, Director
, The (fQopeifltjon of .various government tfpd
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
,$ource$ pn the (jack p,over of this report , , .......
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
, Subscription price is $7 a year ($U5,a(|di' . 'tiondl fof foreigh 'mailing), Slrigle1 issue's "are
60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional
/^har^
foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
enclosing a copy of your address (a be I. Make
,
Documents/Send to U.S. Government Printing
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Department of Commerce Field Office.
ABOUT THE CQVER-Series in ttjis publication
' • /'1a,ife1'gtoUpfett'«icCd WiiiiS1' .W- th'eiW'uSual titrtirtg1'
and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business
activity, The center panel illustrates
'
tion; the top curve, the Leading Series which
usually fall before a contraction has begun and
rise before it has ended; the middle curve,, ,the
^qipip^
contraction period; the bottom curve, 1 the
Lagging Series which fall after a contraction
has begun and rise after it ends. Series are ajso
y//e|$.$lfteri7$y^
timing group. Processes are indicated In''the
squares bordering the panel.
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
..... I
' ' ' ..... ,
!
PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic
indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation
and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list
of indicators and their classification into "leading," "roughly coincident,"
and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which
has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years.
The business cycle turning dates are also those designated by NBER. In
addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight
economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special
series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total
of machinery and equipment sales and business construction) have been
constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis.
The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their
cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any
approach to business cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled
by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended
only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide
information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business
conditions.
The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according
to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the
cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in
evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and
contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be
readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted.
U.S. DEPARTMENT Ol* COMMERCE
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source
agency. A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report.
July 1967
DATA THROUGH JUNE
DEVELOPMENTS
CONTENTS
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical
Timing
.
Background Materials
New Features and Changes for This Issue
3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations
iii
iv
v
vi
Descriptions and Procedures
Introduction
.
Timing Classification
Economic Process Classification
"Short List" of Indicators
Method of Presentation
Concepts and Procedures
References
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
,
,
.
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
4
Section One—Basic Data
Table 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
Chart 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
Table 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
,
6
9
31
Section Two—Analytical Measures
Table
Chart
Table
Table
3.
2.
4.
5.
Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
_,
46
47
50
54
Section Three—Cyclical Comparisons
Chart 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles
62
CONTENTS
Continued
Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United
States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
* Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series
67
68
70
71
72
Index
Series Finding Guide
*This appendix has been omitted from this issue. See June issue.
—_
80
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
(Minor economic processes and the nurrfber of series in each process are shown for each classification, See the index and back cover for series titles)
Cyclical
Timing
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
Economic
Process
I. EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
(14 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
(25 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
, PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive employment
(3 series).
Comprehensive unemployment
(3 series)
.Long-duration unemployment
I (1 series)
Comprehensive production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive consumption
and trade (3 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment commitments
(8 series)
Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)
Investment expenditures
, (2 series)
IV. INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(11 series)
Sensitive commodity prices
(i series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit margins
(4 series)
Comprehensive wholesale prices Unit labor costs
(2 series)
(2 series)
Flows of money and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(I series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
(17 series)
OTHER
SELECTED U.S. SERIES
(16 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
Comprehensive retail
prices (1 series)
putstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
. business loans and mortgages
(2 series)
VII. FOREIGN TRADE
AND PAYMENTS
(6 series)
Foreign trade and
payments
(6 series)
VIII. FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
ACTIVITIES
(9 series)
Federal Government
activities
(9 series)
iii
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
tion in economic coverage that is provided, for
various reasons, in the full list. The series on the
short list are identified by asterisks.
A revised list of indicators was introduced in the April
issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Research work for the revised list was carried out by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER),
a private, nonprofit research organization which has
been preparing lists of economic indicators and research
reports in the field of business cycle analysis for more
than 40 years. This revised list was published by the
National Bureau in March 1967, and is the result of
a periodic review made by that agency of its previous
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity. This
is the third revision of the list originally published by
the National Bureau in 1938.
4. Two other groups of series are shown in BCD
in addition to the 88 NBER indicators. They are
"U.S. Series Under Consideration" — a group of
eight series not yet classified by cyclical timing and
economic process, but under consideration for the
list of indicators — and "International Comparisons"
a group of seven series showing industrial production
for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States.
Changes in the 1966 list of indicators are as follows
(series identification number and title):
The method of preparing the new list, the reasons for
adding certain series and dropping others, and an
explanation of the classification system used are described in a new report, INDICATORS OF BUSINESS
EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS, published by
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc:, 261
Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10016. Other reports on the historical studies and methods of making
current interpretations of the indicators are listed in
this book.
The revised list includes some new series, discontinues some of those on the previous list, and has
assigned timing classifications to some series previously
unclassified by timing. The chief features of the new list
follow;
1. The major principle of classification is a fourfold grouping by cyclical timing: Leading, roughly
coincident, and lagging indicators, and other selected
series. The first three categories take into account
timing at both peaks and troughs; the fourth group
includes economic activities that have an important
role hi business cycles but have displayed a less
regular relation to them. The new list of indicators
includes 36 leading series, 25 roughly coincident
series, 11 lagging series, and 16 series unclassified
by timing—88 series in all; 69 are monthly and
19 are quarterly. This list includes 13 series not on
the previous NBER list and omits 5 series. In addition, 14 series previously unclassified by timing are
assigned a timing classification.
2. The type of economic process represented by
the series is used as a secondary principle of classification, with emphasis on the processes that are
important for business cycle analysis^ The 88 U.S.
series are classified into eight major groups: (I)
Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II)
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8
series; (III) Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series;
(IV) Inventories and Inventory Investment, 9 series; •
(V) Prices, Costs, and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money
and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and
Payments, 6 series; and (VIII) Federal Government
Activities, 9 series. Each of these major categories
is subdivided into economic processes that exhibit
rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. For
example, under Fixed Capital Investment, new investment commitments are distinguished from investment expenditures.
13 series new to the 1966 list:
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book
value
'
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks
101. National defense purchases
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicle and parts
862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
5 series on the previous list but omitted from the
1966 list:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
*51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York
*64. Manufacturers' inventories, book value
111. Corporate gross savings
10 series specially constructed for business cycle
studies at the suggestion of the NBER:
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies
*38. Index of net business formation
53, Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
*62.. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
*Denotes series included on "short list."
3. A short list of 25 indicators, drawn from the
full list, is identified throughout BCD. This more
selective list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident,
and 6 lagging series; 21 are monthly and 4 are
quarterly. The short list involves little of the duplica-
iv
Si A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. A number of indicators in widespread use have not been
included in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS either because they do
not have consistent cyclical timing records or because they
have not yet been systematically appraised as cyclical indicators. Beginning with this issue, eight such series are shown
in a new section, "U.S. Series Under Consideration."
2. Table 5B, showing directions of change, has been discontinued to make room for the new section on U.S. series under
consideration. However, to facilitate interpretation of the
detail data for components of aggregate series, directions of
change are now shown in table 5 along with the numbers.
3. Revisions from 196-4 to date are shown throughout the
report for series 16, 21, 22, 49, 50, 52, 53, 57, 68, 95, and
101. These changes reflect periodic revisions in national
income and product accounts made by the Office of Business
Economics, Department of Commerce.
4. Series 17 (price per unit of labor cost) and series 62
(labor cost per unit of output1) have been revised for the
period January 1964 to date to reflect revisions made in the
national income and product accounts.
5. The Department of Defense has compiled a more comprehensive series on military contract awards (series 92). This new
series, which includes contracts awarded to business firms,
educational institutions, and nonprofit organizations within
the United States, as well as intragovernmental contracts, has
replaced the series (covering U.S. business firms only) previously shown in this report. The period covered by the new
series is July 1955 to date.
6. Series 123 (Canadian industrial production index) has
been revised for the period January 1949 to date. These revisions reflect changes made by the source agency—primarily the
adoption of new benchmarks and a new seasonal adjustment.
Additional information regarding this revision may be obtained
from the Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Ottawa, Canada,
7. Appendix F includes historical data for "U.S. Series
Under Consideration" (series 850 through 857) and for series
16, 17, 21, 22, 49, 50, 52, 53, 57, 62, 68, 92, 95, 101, and
123. Appendix C has been omitted from this issue to make room
for publication of historical data for these series. This
appendix will be reinstated in the August issue.
The August issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is scheduled
for release on August 25.
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CENSUS METHOD II ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. A time series computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is
particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within a year.
The latest variant, X-ll, has greater generality and scope than any of the
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost,
BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A monthly report for analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and
prospects. These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half
a century of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this
purpose, The publication provides not only the basic data, but also various
charts and analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time
series punch-card file, a diffusion index program, and a separate summarymeasures computer program are available for those who wish to carry on
further research in business cycle analysis.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH. An annual report for the study of
economic fluctuations over a long span of years.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's
economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A
punchcard file of the time series included in the report is available for
purchase.
VI
DESCRIPTIONS
AND
INTRODUCTION
The business cycle is generally described as consisting
of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in
aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of
activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the
flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many
economists do not consider it inevitable.
The causal relations among various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions
have eventually turned into recessions and recessions
into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production
and employment are preceded by fluctuations in
measures which relate to future rather than current
production—measures such as new orders for. durable
goods, formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest
rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts.
TIMING CLASSIFICATION
On the basis of many years of research, the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has compiled a
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity and has
classified these indicators according to whether they
usually lead, roughly coincide with, or lag behind the
cyclical movements in aggregate activity. The 1966 list,
as issued by the NBER, is the basis for the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Prior to April 1967, their 1960 list was
used. The series have been grouped and classified by
the NBER as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lag-
ging" indicators, These indicators are described as
follows:
Leading Indicators.—Series that usually reach peaks
or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity
as measured by the roughly coincident series (see
below). One group of these series pertains to orders
and contracts, another to inventory investment, and
so on.
Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series that are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move
roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural
employment, industrial production, and retail sales.
Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new plant and
equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after they are
reached in aggregate economic activity.
Also included in BCD are (a) "Other Selected U.S.
Series," economic activities which are important in
analyzing business cycles but have a less consistent
relation to them; (b) "U.S. Series Under Consideration," indicators that measure important economic relationships but have not been classified by economic
process and timing and, therefore, not yet incorporated
into the list of 88 indicators; and (c) industrial production indexes for several countries which have
important trade relations with the United States.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report
are those designated by the NBER. They mark the
approximate dates when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high (peak) or low (trough) levels.
As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months
after it has occurred. (See appendix A for peak and
trough dates.)
ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION
A secondary principle of classification, economic
process, supplements the timing classification. All series
are cross-classified according to these two principles.
The major economic process categories are employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories and inventory investment; prices, costs, and
profits; money and credit; foreign trade and payments;
and Federal Government activity.
"SHORT LIST" OF INDICATORS
A short, substantially unduplicated list of principal indicators provides a convenient way of summarizing
the current situation and outlook. The NBER has
identified, for this purpose, a short list of 25. This list
includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging
indicators; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. These
series are identified throughout BCD.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report consists of three major sections as follows:
Basic Data (chart 1, tables 1 and 2).—Data for all
series are shown for the current and prior periods
in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad view
of past and current business cycle fluctuations is
provided.
Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 to 5).—Measures are presented which help to determine the
magnitude and scope of current changes in different
processes, industries, and areas, and aid in evaluating the prospects of a turning point in the business
cycle.
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3).—Comparisons are made
between current cyclical levels and previous business
cycles.
A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on
the back cover of this report. The series numbers are
for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES
Several other concepts and procedures used in this
report are summarized below:
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are
often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical
trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally ad-
justed data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency. In addition, for the
special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of
series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally
adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis
in this report. The seasonal adjustment process usually
accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there
are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment
is needed for holidays with variable dates.
Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the
cyclical movements in a monthly series. MCD moving
averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD
of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of
the variation about these moving averages, monthly
data are also plotted.
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures
which express what percentage of the components of an
aggregate series has risen over given time spans. Their
turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate.
Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion
indexes. Many of the component series used to make
up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 5.
During the current expansion, high values for the
indicators are identified in table 2. These values are
not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the
highest values reached to date.
Certain appendix materials are presented regularly
in this report. These materials include historical data,
adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other
information helpful in interpreting trends in the indicators.
REFERENCES
Fuller explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate
economic activity in analyzing current business conditions and prospects may be found in the following
references:
(1) Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes and
First Differences," The Economic Journal,
June 1958, pp. 288-301.
(2) Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes," American Statistician vol. IX, No. 2 (June 1955),
pp. 7-16.
(3) Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C.
Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1946.
(4) Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American
Statistical Association, August 1966, pt. V, pp.
64-75.
(5) Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to
Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National
Bureau," The Review of Economics and Statistics vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August 1962), pp. 284291.
(6) Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators,"
How Business Economists Forecast (William F.
Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt. I, ch. 2,
pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: PrenticeHall, 1966,
(7) Moore, Geoffrey H,, Editor, Business Cycle
Indicators. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.
(8) Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions,
Occasional Paper 103. New York: National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1967.
(9) Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of the
National Bureau's Leading Indicators," Business
Cycle Indicators vol. I, ch. 4, pp. 110-119. New
York: National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 1961.
(10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical
Turning Point Predictors," Journal of Business,
April 1960, pp. 101-120.
(11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators: The
Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at
the 34th session of the International Statistical
Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August 24, 1963.
Washington: Bureau of the Census, 1963.
(12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 77. New York:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1961.
HOW TO READ CHARTS 1 AND 2
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series
(May) (Feb.!
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted,
("3"-March)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Series are
arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by
timing and economic process,
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II"=second quarter)
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures
or MCD moving averages.*)
Dotted lino indicates anticipated
data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic
scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic
scale with 2 cycles in that distance,
etc. The scales should be carefully
noted because they show whether
or not the plotted lines for various
series are directly comparable.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly, data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVfc, 2, or
2V2 months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Scale shows percent of components
rising.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("2"=
February)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes, ("IV"=
fourth quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups
by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed
by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to
some readers.
Section ONE
BASIC
DATA
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed cap/fa/ investment
Inventories ancf inventory investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production, income, consumption, aitd trade
Fixed capital investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
LAGGING
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
fixed
capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Prices, costs, and profits
Foreign trade and payments
Federal Government activities
Also U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION (unclassified series) and INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS (industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries)
laoie i
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Mar.
1967
Apr.
1967
May
1967
3
June '66 June '66 1953 to
to date to date
1965
(with (without (without
5
4
sign)
sign)
sign)5 6
June
1967
bed
Current percent change 3
Mar.
to
Apr.
1967
Apr.
to
May
1967
May
to
June
1967
LEADING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
Hours ....
*L Avg, workweek, prod, workers, mfg
*30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
Thousands
.
Per 100 employ. .
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted 3 ) . Thousands
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 3 ). Per 100 employ. .
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*38. Index of net business formation
* 1957-59-100...
13. New business incorporations
Number .......
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . Bit. dollars....
1957-59=100...
94. Construction contracts, value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and7 equip. . .Bil. dollars
do
11. New capital appropriations, mfg.
do . ...
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus
9. Construction contracts, commercial
Mil. sq. ft.
and industrial buildings
floor space . . .
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
Ann. rate, thous.
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing
1957-59-100 ..
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
21; Change in business
inventories, all
industries7 8
Ann. rate, bit.dol,
*31. Change in book value, 8manufacturing
do
and trade inventories
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Percent
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven8
tories of materials and supplies
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls,, commitments 60 days or longer (fi)
Percent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliverieS''u)
. do
25. Change in unfilled8 orders, durable
goods industries . .
Bil. dollars ...
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices @
1957-59=100.,.
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks ® . . .1941-43-10...
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits after taxes 7
Ann. rate, bii.dol
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
7
corporate, all industries
Percent
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.?
Cents
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg .... 1957-59=100..
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in 8money supply and time
deposits
Ann. rate, percent
85. Change in total U.S. money
supply8
. . . . , do
8
33. Change in mortgage debt . . . '.
Ann. rate, bii.dol
*113. Change in consumer installment
debt8. .
do
8
112. Change in business loans
do
7
110. Total private borrowing
Ann. rate, mil.dol
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 3) Mil. dollars ...
39. Delinquency rate, installment3loans,
30 days and over (inverted ) . . . Percent . . .
497
4.2
256
1.7
r40.4
448
P4.4
p40,2
p487
263
1.5
234
P1.5
40,5
474
r4.1
(NA)
-0,2
-1.2
-1.4
0.5
3.8
5.5
0.5
1.8
4.6
• 225
(NA)
-2.2
-3.2
8.9
14.5
5.0
8.8
(NA)
(NA)
0.0
+0,6
1.0
2.6
103.3
104.0
16,244
16,760
105.7
17,627
22.06
* 149
5.50
r22.23
r23.90
p23.76
138
154
164
r5.37
r5.55
P5.85
59.04
r1,173
90.7
-0.2
-5.5
+7.3
-0.5
+8.7
(NA)
-2.7
+11,8
+11.0
0.0
+3.8
(NA)
0.8
2.5
+0.7
+3.2
+1.6
+5.2
(NA)
(NA)
3.7
6.0
4.2
9.3
3.5
3.8
6.6
4.7
10.4
4.2
+0.8
-7.4
-2.4
+6,5
+5.4
+2.8
+7,5
+11.6
+3.4
(NA)
+3.6
+5.2
+2.9
+10.7
-10.0
+8.6
+0.4
-0.6
r4.60
P4.82
-0.2
+1,1
+0.5
-7.5
+0.2
53.16
64.03
p1,283
P94.8
+0.5
+0,9
+1.4
9.9
9.2
6.8
9.3
7.2
3.7
-3.0
6.5
2.3
-1.5
4.3
3.7
-1.6
7.5
6.5
-19.6
+5.4
+7,7
-0.5
1.8
1.5
+0.9
-2,1
(NA)
(NA)
56.14
1,140
81.9
+0.2
-4.6
-2.4
r1,274
r9L1
p+2,1
+4.8
+20.4
+0.7
+4.1
-5.0
+3.8
r+3.1
p+0.7
46
37
39
-0,3
r+0.6
p-1.5
68
67
66
68
-0.4
2.6
5.3
-1.5
-1.5
+3.0;
38
39
36
38
-4-4
7.7
7.5
+2.6
-7,7
+5.6
-1,07
r-0,04
r+1.04
p+0.69
-0.08
0.90
0.48
+1.03
+1.08
-0.35
102.5
100.1
99,5
99.8
-1,4
1 .7
1.3
-2.3
-0.6
+0.3
89.42
90.96
92.59
91.43
+0.6
2.5
2.5
+1.7
+1.8
-1.3
(NA)
-1.8
2.1
5.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-3.1
-2.9
3.1
2.9
0.5
4.2
5.7
0.6
(NA)
(NA)
-0.3
r100.6
+16.20
+16.92
+11.93
+3.17
+6,83
r100.6
r100,3
(NA)
42
(NA)
P99.7
+4.56
+14.16 p+14.64
+13-92 p+13.08
(NA)
r+11.69 p+15.44
+2.56
+2.32
(NA)
p+8,-16
+9.25
+1.63
110.80
1.90
93.00
-0.6
2.56 -11,64 +9.60 +0.48
3.15 -21.84 +18.84 -0.84
(NA)
1.31 -0.24 +3.75
(NA)
0.87 -0.61 -0.24
2.22 +2.42 -7.62 +6.53
11.0
(NA)
-0.39
-0.80
-6.1
87.20
-6.7
30.2
18.7
-1.8
(NA)
-1.6
2.5
2.6
-4.4
(NA)
108.87
+0.38
+0.56
+0.04
0.0
5.86
11.40
2.03
0.75
5.64
19.1
-4.92
(NA)
-0.7
+16.1
+6.2
(NA)
Table 1
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Mar.
1967
Average percent change2 3
Apr.
1967
1967
June
1967
June '66 June '66 1953 to
to date to date
1965
(with 4 (without5 (without
sign)
sign) sign)5 6
Current percent change3
Mar.
to
Apr.
1967
Apr.
to
May
1967
May
to
June
1967
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Job Vacancies:
301 Nonagri job openings unfilled ....... Thousands....
1957-59 = 100..
46. Help- wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
511. Man-hours in non farm establishments... Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours ...
*41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . . Thousands
do
42 Total nonagriculturaf employment
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 3). . . Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured
unemploy. rate,
do
State (inverted3 )
do
40. Unemployment rate, married males (inv?)
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production: 7
Ann. rate, bil. doL
49 GNP in cur rent dollars
do
*50. GNP in 1958 dollars7
1957-59-100..
*47. Industrial production.
Comprehensive Income:
Ann.rate,bil,dot.
*52. Personal income
do
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr .
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
Mil. dollars...
*816 Manufacturing
and trade sales
Ann.rate,bil.dol.
57. Final sales7
Mil. dollars...
*54. Sales of retail stores . . , .
364
184
353
181
350
, .. rl74
P347
p!71
133.51 r 132. 72 r 132. 71 P133.17
65,600 r 65, 476 r 65, 412 p65,565
70,420
70,020
69,637
69,892
1
-1.6
-0.6
2.3
1.6
3.1
3.0
-3.0
-1.6
-0.8
-3,9
-0.9
-1.7
+0.1
+0.2
+0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
-0.6
-0.2
+0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
+0.3
+0.2 I
+1,1
-2.8
-2,7
-5.3;
3.8
4.0
-0.3
2.9
3.9
2.6
1.9
r2.7
1.9
2.6
2.0
-1.6
-0.6
5.1
4.2
0.0
4.2
5.1 -11.8
-3.8
0.0
+3.7
-5.3
r!56!2
P155.2
+1.3
+0.6
-0.1
1.3
0.6
156,'i
P775.3
p664.6
155.5
1.5
1.3
1.0
-O.'l
+1.2
+0.6
-0.4
-0.2
r6l5.6
rl62.7
r6l6.5
rl62.2
r6l8.2
rl6l.5
p621.9
pl62.1
+0.6
+0.3
0.5
0.8
+0.1
-0.3
+0.3
-0.4
+0.6
0.5
87,458- r86,833
(NA)
+0.1
+1.7
+0.2;
0.7
1.7
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.0
-0.7
(NA)
+0.7
+0.8
+1.8
+0.2
+0.5
0.0
= 1.11.3
1.4
6.6
-0.1
+1.4
+0.1
+0.1
0.1
0,1
0.2
0.2
3.6
3.7
2.6
1.7
0.4
0.6
+0.4
25,739
r25,9l8
p87,504
P773.2
r25,9SQ
74.06
p20.32
r74.02
r75.05
106.0
106.3
106.0
106.2
106.0
106.3
106.0
Mil. dollars...
+236
+175
r+269
p+292
-54
81
98
+61
-94
-23
Percent
do
. . . do
do
4.29
5.55
4.45
3.55
3.85
5.59
4.51
3.60
3.64
5.90
4.76
3.89
3.48
6.06
4.86
3.96
-2.0
+0,6
+0.4
+0.5
5.0 1
3.0
2.1
3.0
6.7
1.6
1.6
2.5
: -10.3
+0.7
+1.3
+1.4
-5.5
+5.5
+5.5
+8.1
-4,4
+2.7
+2.1
+1.8
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
^0.5
^ 5.6
6.5
0.0
+16.7
:
1,6
3.2
p26,050
,
+0.3:
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus. .9 . Bil. dollars...
do
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commod.®... 1957-59-100..
do
58, Wholesale prices/manufactured goods®
p75,74 ;
(NA)
106.6
0.0
-0.1
0.0
+0.1
+0.9
(NA)
0.0
+0.3
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank Reserves:
93 Fr ee reserves d (inver ted3 ) @
Money Market Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate®
116 Corporate bond yields®
115 Treasury bond yields©
• •
117 Municipal bond yields ©
.
;
LAGGING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Long-Duration Unemployment:
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over (inverted3)
Percent
-20.0
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Investment Expenditures :
*61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip.7 Ann. rate, bil.dol.
505. Machinery and equipment sales and
do
business construction expenditures . .
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . Bil. dollars...
65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of
do
finished goods
+0.6
a6l.55
r68.85
137.09
26.83
1-66.79
p66.71
r 137. 35 p!37.41
r27.13
p27.32
r
-0.2
(MA)
-0.7
1.5
1.6
-3.0
(NA)
+0.7
0,7
0.5
(NA)
+1.1
1.1
0.6
-0.1
(NA)
+0.2
0.0
(NA)
+1.1
+0.7
(NA)
'
Table 1
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Mar.
1967
Apr.
1967
May
1967
June
1967
rl05.7
r!05.6
(NA)
r!06.0
p!06.9
74,226
74,439
74,632
do
61,167
62,407
61,898 p63,341
Percent
do
6.35
6*. 29
Unit of
measure
3
June '66 June '66 1953 to
to date to date
1965
(without
(with (without
5
sign)5 <>
sign)
sign)4
Current percent change3
Mar.
to
Apr.
1967
Apr.
to
May
1967
May
to
June
1967
LAGGING INDICATORS-Continued
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs;
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.), nonfin. corp. 7 . . , .Dollars
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
1957-59=100 ..
+1.5
+0.5
1.5
0.5
0.8
0.5
-0.1
(NA)
+0.4
+0.8
+0.5
0.5
0.£
+0.3
40.3
(NA)
+0.8
1.1
l.C
+2.0
-0.8
+2.3
+0.7
+0.1
3.5
1.4
2.0
0.1
-0*.9
-2.9
42.4
+1.1
+0.2
0.2
0.2
+0.3
+0.3
+0.3
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
Interest Rates on Business Loans and
Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans7®.
118. Mortgage yields, residential ©
Mil. dollars....
5.95
6.44
(NA)
6.51
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Retail Prices:
81. Consumer prices®
1957-59=100...
115.6
115.0
116.0
115.3
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:7 a
(NA)
a. Liquidity balance basis. . . i
Mil. dollars ....
(NA)
b. Official settlements basis .'
do
88. Merchandise trade balance 8 (inverted 3)
do
+384! I +435 '.4 +426.2 +355.3
86. Exports, excluding military aid. ......
do . . . 2,569.1 2,659.4 2,544.8 2,583.5
861. Export orders, durables exc. mot. veh.®
r772 pi, 041
do
905
(NA)
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery . 1957-59=100...
(NA)
252
p225
r215
87. General imports
Mil. dollars .... 2,184.7 2,224.0 2,118.6 2,228.2
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit
(-), nat'l.
income and prod, acct.7 8 . . . . 7.8 Ann. rate, bil. dol.
(NA)
84. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit 7(-)
do......
+12.5
83. Federal cash receipts from public
do
'.
165.8
82. Federal cash payments to public7
do .
153.3
101. National 7defense purchases, current
dollars
..... do
P72.6
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total .,
Mil. dollars ....
7,896
(NA)
6,343
6,211
do .
2,608
(HA)
90. Defense Dept oblig procurement
1,903
1,715
99 New orders defense products
3.24
P3.67
r3.27
r3.85
Bil. dollars....
(NA)
92. Military contract awards in U S
4,121
r2,9S4 r2,920
Mil. dollars... .
(NA)
341
(NA)
492
+9.2 +70.9
58.4 -51.0
3.8 +3.5
+1.5
-4.3
(NA)
12.4 -14.7 +34.8
(NA)
6.3 -14.7 +4.7
3.0 +1.8
-4.7
+ 5.2
-141
-549
-0.1
+0.4.
+2.5
+1.1
+0.4
141
1,240
72.8
2.8
20.6
9.4
3.6
-5.0
-0.6
+1.3
+1.8
5.0
14.2
5.5
5.6
2.5
3.4
3.8
(NA)
+13.6
+6.7
-2.0
+5.6
+2.6
+2.9
+1.9
+2.3
5.6
12.2
18.0
15.8
12.9
2.3
13.9
27.4
22.5
18.1
+3.4
-2*.i +27.1
-9.9 +52.1
+0.9 +17.7
-2.1 +41.1
4. a
(NA)
(NA)
-4.7
(NA)
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg.7
851. Ratio, inventories to sal'es, mfg., trade.
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal saving
to disposable
personal income7
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled
to persons unemployed
856. Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
857. Vacancy rate, private rental housing7. .
Percent.
Ratio
do....
1957-59 = 100...
l.*57
1.5B
p84.7
pi. 57
(NA)
-1.7
+0.6
1.7
0.8
2.2
1.0
+0.6
-2.6
-0.6
3.58
3.73
3.71
P3.71
+0.5
1.3
2.0
+4.2
-0.5
0.0
125.4
124.4
p!23.2
+0.1
0.9
1.0
-0.7
-0.8
-1.0
+5.2
8.0
8.5
-1.9
+0.1
-1.9
3.8
0.1
2.9
5.8
0.4
3.6
126.3
Ratio
do
1957-59=100...
Percent
pO.069
0.131
114.8
0.125
114.9
0.121
114.9
(NA)
pO.112
plH.8
(NA)
-5.5
-4.6
+0.1
-3.2
0.0
(NA)
-7.4
-0.1
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. ©Not seasonally adjusted. NA =not available; r revised; p= preliminary; e ^estimated; anticipated.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by ®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement.
See additional
basic data and notes in
3
table 2.
Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes for the specified periods.
To facilitate interpretations of
cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and
declines as rises (see series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 88, 93, and 502). 5 Percent changes are computed in the usual way
but the signs are reversed. See footnote 8 for other
change qualifications.
Average computed with regard to sign.
Average computed without regard to sign. B 6"Rie period varies among the series* however for most
series, the period covered is 1953-65..
'Quarterly series; figures are placed in the middle month of quarter..
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or
minus amounts the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percentages.9 Figures
e
are placed in the last month of quarter.
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(July) |Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(May| (Feb.;
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
Marginal Employmetit Adjustments ^^HHHI
*1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs,, mfg, (hours)
30. Nonagri. placements, alt indus. (thous.
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
5, Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl. msur. (thous.-inverted scale)
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees-inverted scale)
1948
49
50
§1
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
$1
62
63
64
See 'How to Sead Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( * J identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for tliese series are stiown m page 31.
65
66
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
0 0H BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators-Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.] (Oct.)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May] (Feb.)
P T
*38, Index of net bus. formation (1957-59=100)
13. Nsw bus. incorporations (thous.)
*6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. do I
94. Constructi&ft contracts, total value (index:
1957-59-111; MCD moving avg,-5-term)
*10. Contracts and or Hem, plant and equip, (bit. do)
1948
49
90
51
52
See 'H©w to Read Charts 1 and 2,* page 4.
10
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
Asterisk [*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 31 and 32.
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators -Continued
. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT- Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.
P
T
Uuly) (Apr.
P T
fijNewcapita) ap^priatibns, mg., Q jjbii, dq|.
, ^M. anf equ,p. «p|. Ibil. dol.
9. Constr. coRtraets, com. and ftidps. (mil. sq. ft.
of floor
7, Private Honfarm housing starts |ann. rate
millions; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
j,
*29, N e v | . permits,
units (index: 1957-59=100)
JL,ilJ:.j! JL.LJi_:Ljl_.r_JLJLjL.., "
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
50
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
§6
67
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk f*J identifies series on 'snort list', cbrrent data for these series are showo m pagg 32.
11
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
bed
0 0H BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
EC. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
Uuly) (Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
+20-1
21. Change in bus. inventories, all Wus., Q (ann, rate, bil. dot,]
+10 -
-1037. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories
75
50
25
?0. Change frt.toQoK value, mttC.tJivRJitoi:Iejs_of materials
supplies (w. rate, bil. dol; MCO moving avg.-6-term)
xy
J2s
V
+10-
A!< A
*^X
v v T ^ />)WN
W^'W v
T
*C7^
^
-,^/
I
v
*
;•' • •:?:' -M
y ; ;^; t
-5
100
I. Buying policy, prod, rntls., percent of companies
reporting ctmiitments 60 days or longer
25
1948
4S
SO
51
52
§3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
S@@ 'Itew to Cmml gtots 1 at9d 2/ pagi4. Asterisk '*.; identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 33.
65
66
67 1968
Chart 1A
bed JULY 1967
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to
PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Continued
(July! (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries
25. Change h unfilled orders, dur, goods indus. (biL del; MCO moving avg.~4-term)
3E. PRICiS, COSTS, AND PROFITS
*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59-100)
100-i
iO80
10
*ff. Stock prices, 500 common
stocks (index: 1941-43=101
40 H
30
20
•:!• '
1948
49
SO
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Sea How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' pag§4. Asterisk (*} identifies series on 'short list*. Current data for
61
tee
62
63
serial are sh@wn m
@4
@§
33and34,
13
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. PRICES, COSTS, ANDPROFITS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
ate profits aWt taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dpi.)
ip, profits to incorB'e eriginating
e, all industries, Q (percent)
Profits pcMliar of sales, rnfg., Q (cents)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'Now to ta$ Ghirts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series en 'short list' Current data for these series are shown on page 34.
14
65
66
67 1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT
fJufy! (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Qet.)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr,]
P T
T
(Hay! (Feb.)
P T
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
jann, rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
85. Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bit. dot.)
+15 H
*113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-5-term)
1948
49
§0
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
€2
63
64
See 'How to R©ad Charts 1 aeid 2,' page 4. Asterisk |*J identifies series 0n 'shaft list'. Current data for these series ire stimw m ^age
15
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT -Continued
.'Nov.: (Qcti
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Mjf) (Apr.)
P
T
(May! (Feb.)
P T
Flows of Money and Credit-Continued
110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
Credit Difficulties
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
16
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.- inverted scale;
MCD moving avg.-6-term]
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans [percent-inverted scale)
bed
Chart IB
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
mo¥.) (Oct.
P
T
(July! (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
301. Nonagri. job openings unfilled, BES (thousands]
46, Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59-100)
511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
(ann. rate, bif.
M1. Employees in nonagri.
establishments (millions]
42. Total nonagri, employment millions
17
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident
Indicators-Continued
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
Comprenensive Unemployment
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
P
T
T
(May) |Feb.)
P
T
*43. Unemployment rate, tetal (percent-inverted scale]
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate [percent-inverted scale)
40. Unemployment rate, married males (percent-inverted scale]
I.
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production
18
49. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bif. dol.]
*50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q
ann. rate, bit. dot.
*47. Industrial production
(index: 1957-59=
56
§7
S8
pf Sfetife ssrigs m 'sh®rt lisf. Current datu im ttees©
gre
pages 38 and 37.
bed
Chart IB
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
R©yghSy Coincident Indicators-Continued
H. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.
P
I
(lily) (Ape
P T
*52. Personal income (arm. rate, bit. dot.
53. Wages and salaries in mining,
mfg., constr. (ann_._rate,bil. dol.)
*54. Sales of retail
19
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident indicators-Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July! (Aug.!
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Backlog of Investment Commitments
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. bil. dot
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg.t Q (bil. dol.)
m
09
m
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Whojesale Prices
110-
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1957-59=100]
58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods (index: 1957-59=100)
§7
iS
Chart IB
bed
JULY 1967
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Coincident Iftdecators'-Confinued
. MONEY AND CREDIT
(Hov.I (Oct.)
Bank Reserves
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.-inverted scale
Money Market Interest Rates
1t4. Treasury bill rate (percent)
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
21
Chart 1C
BASIC DATA
bed
JULY 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators
I.
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
F T
T
P
T
Long Duration Unemployment
2. Unemployment mte, persbjis unemployed 15 weeks and ®ver (percent-inverted scale)
1-
IH. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
9U
;
:
'
:
:
80-
:•
E""* (niroctmont f/vnonHitiirr?- liiiiilMiP'lBB**P*>'||l|P*H|l|l*|i|||i|l>^^
70-
gmi invcMmcni Lxpcnutiurcd ^HHlHHMHIMMHHHHIHKHHMHIHI^IilHHHHHCHJ^^
^^
*61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
+*
««
.^
60S0»
•
i
i
•
-,
,
>/\
\
'
''I---
Hff
505. Mach. and equip, sales and bus, constr,
-^f^Lx
expend, lann. rate, bil. dol.) ____^£r
_.^_^_
in«
90 n
80
70
60
1
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
180140
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories [bil. dol.)
1008030 -i
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.
25-
2015-
1948
49
See 'tow
to
50
51
52
53
54
S5
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
Charts 1 an^ 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short Sisf. Current data for these series are shown on page 39.
Digitized for
22FRASER
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1C
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators-Continued
3L. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
IMOV.) (Oct.)
T
(Ju8y)(Apr.J
(July) (Aug.
(May) (Feb.)
P T
68. Labor cost (curr. dol.) per dol. of
I real oorp. GNP.Q (dol.)
*62. Labor cost per unit of output,
3ZL MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt
66. Consumer installment debt (bit. dol.)
*72. Com, and ind. loans outstanding, weekly
reporting targe com. banks (bil. dol.)
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages
*67. Bank rates on short-term
bus. loans, Q (percent)
118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
1948
49
50
SH
52
53
54
59
56
§7
58
59
6©
61
62
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk |*| identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are
23
Chart ID
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
3C. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Aug.)
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
Comprehensive Retail Prices
2E. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. doL!
b. Official settlements basis
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2; page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 41.
60
61
62
63
64
65
;«_,.
66
67
1968
bed
Chart ID
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
mi. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS -Continued
INov-l (Oct.)
P
.
(July) (Aug.]
T
P
(July) (Apr,)
I
F
(May) (Fab.)
F T
T
3.5-1
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. do[.;
MOD moving avg.-T-terinj
"
861. Export orders, durables exc. motor vehicles
(bil. do!.; 4-term moving avg^f
A
852, Export orders^ aoneleclrical machinery ,
u
[index: 1957-59=100; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
87. General Imports (bil. dol;MCD moving avg.-4-term)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2/ page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 41,
25
Chart ID
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
2IH. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT] ACTIVITIES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
income and
acctS, Q (ami, rate, bil doll)
+20-
l n\
+10-
:i
^ /
/A ^\
a
V"
.-;>
-10«
+36 -i
SI. Fed, cash surplus or deficit, Q (ann. rate, bil. dd.]
ffeMti public, Q (ann rate, bil. (lot
82. Fed. cash payments to public, Q ann. rate, bit. dol.
1948
49
SO
91
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to mm charts 1 and 2," page 4.'Em-rent data for these series are shown on page 42.
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart ID
bed
JULY
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
SHI. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
T
gfc^rt.—«.. iU LIU, i •i ll iiim,u:' J .L,.Li l i ni ii **#~«. -~~- * ~~~+~^.***f..\
tl&ujh^JH^
|
'
mrn^m, i
!^^o^^jJBL
' I
r? w
j.^
90. Defense Dept. ofalig., procurement (bil. do I.; MCD moving avg.-6~term)
i,-
99, New orders, defense products [bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
I
H
'
I
1
1
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol,; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
,
j
E
LJ'.U IL
1948
49
50
51
§2
53
54
55
56
57
38
S@
SO
61
@2
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' pap 4. Current data for these series are shown on pagg 42.
27
Chart IE
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948, to PRESENT-Continued
U.S. Series Under Consideration
|May| (Feb.)
P T
fJuly) |Apr.j
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg., Q
-JM--
851, Ratio, jjnyimtorles to(sales, mfg. and trade
fl 0 ^
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
mfrs.' dur. goods Indus.
Hi
- —-, MH
150 <
853. Ratio, prodMtjon of business equipment to
itffifir goods [index: 1957-59-100)
*,''' tu !'
'i
•i
140-
i
130120110-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
See 'How to Read Charts t and 2\ page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 43.
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart IE
b<d
JULY
BASIC DATA
1967
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
U.S. Series Under Consideration-Continued
INOV.I (Oct.)
P
(July! (Aug.)
p
t
T
Uuiy) |ApnS
P T
(May) (Feb.;
P T
854. Ratio, personal saying to disposable personal income, Q
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled tb
_ * _ number of persons unemployed
„ 858, Ratio, agg._ hourly noings of prod, workers in mfg.
to consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100)
857. Vacancy rate in p»ate rental housing, Q (percent)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
£968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4, Current data for these series are shown on page 43.
29
Chart IF
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES
P
Duly) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
T
47. Unite* States Jindex; 1957-59=100)
123. Canada (index: 1957-59-100)
122. United Ki
(index: 1957-59^40^— f-
126, France (index: 1957-59=100}
125. West Germany
121. OECD European countries
1948
49
5©
51
52
Sea 'How to iaa^ Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
30
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
53
54
55
56
57
§3
Current data for these series are shown on pap
59
44.
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Leading Indicators
Major
Ecnrmmic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Formation of Business
Entej]prises
Year
and
month
*1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
*30. Nonagricultural placements,
all industries
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Hours)
(Thous.)
(Per 100 employees)
1965
January
February
March
41.1
41.2
41.3 •
-J'/-
522
4.0
549
5 SS
4.1 :
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs l
(Thous.)
3. Layoff rate,manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)
*38, Index of net 13. Number of new
business formation business incorporations
(1957-59=100)
(Number)
4,3\:
243
248
237
1.5
1.4
1.4
106.5
106.6
106.1
16,784
16,854
17,131
4.0
4.1
4.4
237
224
224
1.5
1.4
1.4
104.7
105.4
106.2
16,664
16,580
17,017
April
May
June
41*0
41.2
41.0
535
533
548
July
August
September
41.0
41.1
41.0
541
537
529
4.1
4.3
4.5
231
248
218
1.6
1.5
1.4
106.5
105.7
106.1
16,844
16,901
17,136
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
41.2
41.4
41.3
547
544
563
4.5
4.9
4.8
209
212
1.3
1*3
206:
105.5
106.1 :
106.9;
16,994
17,606
17,625
4.9
4.9
5.2
222
219
182
1.2
1.2
1*2
109.1
109.6
g>109.6
E> 18,087
- 17,451
17,266
April
May
June
1.4]
:
41.4
41.5
41.5
;
41.5
41.5
41.3
522
513
567
4.8
5.1
g>5.3
B>179
185
186
1.2
1.1
1.3
107.6
106.8
106.2
17,057
16,644
16,577
41.0
41,4
542
543
509
4.6
5.1
5.0
230
196
183
1.7
1,0
1.1
104,8
103*9
102.7
16,074
16,343
15,764
533
530
524
5.1
4.9
4.5
186
194
212
i!i
1.3
103.3
100.6
101.4
16,233
16,206
16,583
41.0
40.3
40.4
534
4.6
4.2
4.2
203
242
256
1.4
1.5
1.7
102.2
103.2
103.3
16,703
15,987
16,244
40.5
r40.4
p40,2
474
448
P487
r4*l
263
234
225
1.5
104.0
105.7
16,760
17,627
July
August
September
B>U.5
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
570
R> 600
589
;:
41.3
41.3
40.9
. ,.
519:
497
P4.4
(NA)
pl.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement, Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Currenthigh values are indicated by[j£>; forseriesthatmove counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
[FD>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
31
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
New Investment Commitments
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
94. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value
(Bil.doL)
(1957-59=100)
*10, Contracts 11 Newly ap.proved capital
and orders for
plant and equip- appropriations,
1,000 manufacment
turing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
1965
January
February
March
21.27
21.13
21.71
137
140
141
4.72
4.67
4.84
5! 66
April
May
June
22.0 A
20.99
21.31
152
145
139
4.98
5.02
4.81
July
August
September
22.20
21.51
22.16
149
139
147
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
22.42
22.39
23.40
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
24. Value of
manufacturers*
new orders, ma- •
chinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)
3.96
3.80
9. Construction 7. New private
contracts, com- nonfarm housing
mercial and in- units started1
dustrial buildings
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space) (Ann. rate, thous.)
*29. Index of
new private
housing units authorized by local3
building permits
(1957-59=100)
4.02
52.94
54.89
54.41
1,417
1,468
1,465
112.3
108.2
109.9
5^79
4.08
4.07
4.09
57.74
57.52
57.72
1,532
1,501
1,539
106.2
109.7
109.9
5.16
4.90
5.15
5.*85
4.35
4.16
4.15
56.68
52.00
62.97
1,447
1,409
1,436
108.9
108.4
104.1
147
141
153
5.13
5.05
5.35
6^32
4.25
4.32
4.58
60.55
61.74
64.13
1,380
1,531
1,735
109.8
112.9
114.0
23.58
23.74
24.89
152
157
158
5.46
5.71
5.66
6.' 36
4.45
4.58
4.59
62.29
ft>70.42
67.99
1,585
1,349
1,538
110,7
105.6
111.9
24.20
24.28
24.59
161
156
147
5.91
fi> ?!ii
4.79
4.84
4.75
68.28
64.00
65.85
1,481
1,287
1,261
104.6
24.37
23.51
g> 25.27
147
139
146
6.10
5.87
g> 6.28
§£> 5.09
4.91
63.54
63.52
64.40
1,068
1,084
1,050
81,3
74.5
64.7
24.24
23.03
23.96
139
130
133
5.76
5.52
5.45
6.24
4.82
4.65
4.60
54.76
64.42
60.21
826
993
1,066
63.0
63.1
67.0
22.07
22,33
22.06
126
143
149
5.34
5.50
ps'.V?
4.54
4.24
4.32
49.09
57.84
56.14
1,266
1,147
1,340
83.1
78.9
81.9
(NA)
r4.44
r4.60
P4.82
59.04
53.16
64.03
r 1,173
rl,274
pi, 283
r91.1
P94.8
r22.23
r23.90
p23.76
5*77
5.57
138
154
B> 164
6'.08
5.40
r5.37
r5.55
P5.85
4.81
96.9
84.2
90.7
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Currenthigh values are indicated by @C>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502). current low values are indicated by
B>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are snown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
High value (1,753) was reached in January 1964.
High value (124.60 was reached in February 1964.
3
32
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
inventory Investment and Purchasing
21. Change in
37. Purchased ma20. Change in
*31. Change in
26. Production
business invenmaterials, perbook value of
book value of
terials, percent of
tories after valmanufacturers' ,
manufacturing
cent of compacompanies reportinventories of
uation adjustan4 trade invennies reporting
ing higher inven1
commitments 60
ment, all industories, total
materials2 and
tories
tries
supplies
days or longer,®
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting)
1965
January
February
March
(Bit. dot,)
+9^4
61
+1.0
65
68
62 I
+0.4'
-+2.5
65
68
72
66
+0.32
+0.81
+0.44
,+7.8
61
59
56
+5.3
+1.5
-0.5
67
65
62
72
70
66
+0 . 84
+0.50
+0.58
+11.5
+12.2
54
58
57
62
63
61
62
64
62
+0.38
+0.32
+2.3
+0.7
+1.4
+3,1
60
66
72
+1.28
+0.78
+1.09
74
B>86
+1.27
+1.31
+1.65
+12.6
+3*8
'•+14.9
+10.6
July
August
September
:
+6.3
+10.2
+19.4
;
+9.9
L
+14.0'
July
August
September
+11.4
0>
:
47 :
49
49
;
•+0.9
•
:
63 :
+1.0
+2.0
63
63
+1.24
49 ;
47
52
+0.9
+1.2
+0.8
68
67
68
+12.8
+17.7
+16.9
51
53 •
54
+3.8
+3.4
+4.0
69
70 i
72
82
75
69
+1,49
+1.36
+1.70
58 !
58
+1.1
+5.4
54 ^
-••+3,3
73
73
72
70
73
72
+1.34
+0.64
U> '+2.30
+18.6
+17.6
+20. 3
58
57
56
+1.4
+2.0
g> 75
73
70
70
64
57
+0.79
-0.21
+0.24
+12.5
47
43 :
+2.2
-1.0
46
.--0.3
72
67
68 :
48
51
38
-0.99
-0 . 30
-1.07
37
39
42
r+0.6
P-1.5
67
66
68
39
36
38
+2.3
.+3.8.
p+2.i
:' '
+8,i
+13.6
+15.9
B> +18.5
: ; ;:
57; :
+11.7
+13.1
+9.6
+7.1
'••••:•
+8.8
+8.4
+9 ,*9
April
May
June
April
May
June
(Percent reporting)
Revised
+8.* 8
October
November
December ....
1967
January
February
March
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
3
April
May
June
October
,
November
December
1966
January
February
March
32. Vendor performance, percent of
companies reporting
slower deliveries,®
r+3.1
p+0.7
(NA)
v
" ;
+1.6
(NA)
r-0.04
r+1.04
p+0.69
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE:* Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Currenthigh values aremdicated by[FE>' forseriesthat move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
»...i..i, /*\
„.„ :„„!..*~*
nf inHim+nrc
an asterisk
(*) are
included ;«frk«
in the IQCC
1966 MDCD
N B E R «^k«r*
"short i;*.#"
list" of
indicators. Tho
The « " indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA , not available.
^-High value (63) was reached in November 1964.
2
High value (+6."6) was reached in December 1961.
3
See "New Features and Changes fpr This Issue," page v
33
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Sensitive Commodity
Economic Process
Prices
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
*19. Index of stock
*23. Index of industrial materials prices® prices, 500 common
stocks ©
Year
and
month
(1957-59 = 100)
Profits and Profit Margins
Stock Prices
(1941-43=10)
* 16; Corporate profits
after taxes
(Ann. rate, bil. doi )
1
Revised
1965
January
February
March
i
April
May
June
July
August
September
22. Ratio of profits to
income originating,
corporate, all industries
(Percent)
18, Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
*17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost index,
manufacturing
(Cents)
(1957-59 = 100)
1
Revised1
Revised
110.6
110.7
113.2
86.12
86.75
86.83
43^7
13*.6
9.'6
103.0
103.0
103.1
i
!
116.7
116.9
115.3
87.97
89.28
85.04
44.6
ii!i
9^3
103.5
103.7
104.5
1
IK. 6
115.2
1U.8
84.91
86.49 :
89.38
44^8
13! 6
9*.4
104.6
104.2'
103.5
115.0
115.5
117.1
91.39
92.15
91.73
47,7
13^5
9.*5
103.2
103.6
104.4
120.5
^
122.9
6^123.5
g>93.32
92,69
88,88
49 '.2
U> 13^5
§£> 9*.8
105.1
105.1
105.1
April
May
June
121.5
118.3
118.4
91.60
86.78
86,06
49.2
13*. 2
9.'3
104.5
105.0
104.7
July
August
September
118,8
111.7
108.9
85.84
80,65
77.81
§D>49'.4
i3!6
9*.2
|t> 105.2
104.6
103.9
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
106.3
105.9
105.8
77.13
80.99
81,33
49.*3
12.' 6
9^6
103.7
102.7
102.8
106,8
105.2
102.5
84.45
87.36
89.42
46*. 5
12.0
8.5
101.5
101.0
100.6
April
100.1
99.5
99. £
90.96
92.59
91.43
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
100.6
100.3
p99.7
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
May
June
....
July
August
September
S
98.2
3
:
93.88
October
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ®. Currenthigh values are indicated by GC>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
fi>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e". estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA". not available.
•"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
3
Average for July 19, 20, and 21.
3
Average for July 20, 21, and 24.
34
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
MONEY AND CREDIT
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
Year
and
month
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1965
January
February
March
33. Net change *113. Net change 112, Change in
85. Change in
total U.S. money in morgage debt in consumer inbusiness loans
supply
held by fin. inst. stallment debt
and life insurance companies1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit.doi.)
(Ann. rate r
bil.dol.)
110. Total private borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current liabilities of business failures 2
(Mil. dol.)
+8,76
+8.76
-f7.44
+0.72
+3.72
+20.57
+18.80
+21.01
+7.38
+7.16
+7.70
+9.90
+12.67
+11,34
62,100
84,54
107.57
146.29
April
May
June
+8.16
+4.08
+10.56
+5,28
-2.28
+7.44
+20.33
+19.64
+23.06
B> +8.94
+7.87
+7.14
+7.68
+10.38
+10.09
69,232
79.51
139.09
135.66
July
August
September . .
+9.72
+10.80
+10.68
+5.16
+4.44
+8.04
+20.08
+21 . 20
•+21. 88
+8,69
+7.87
+8.23
+14.12
+5.39
+7.87
64,688
120.64
128.98
108.56
October
November
December
+12.60+6.52
+11.52
+8.04
+2.88
+11.64
+20 . 76
421.73
422.21
+7.44
+ 8.39
+7.61
+7.45
+6.96
+5.30
67,836
85.67
66.65
128.06
+6.48
+3.36
+7.92
+5.76
+1.44
+7.80
r+23.81
+22.73
IM22.80
4-7.16
+6.46
47.79
r+14.10
+6.24
r+8,76
66,924
111.67
94.59
98.73
+13.20
+3.36
+10.08
+11.28
-4.92
-46.36
IH20.81
isl7.69
14-15.06
+6.37
+5.92
+6.59
r+8.50
r+9.58
r+17.70
77,784
106.93
92.41
111.23
July
August
September
+0.36
+4.80
+5.16
-10.56
0.00
+6.36
r-i<12.24
+12.82
+11.47
+6.77
47.22
+5.70
f£> r+20.72
+3.28
+0.67
56,320
62.84
159.29
128.77
October
November
December
-4.44
-1.44
+3.52
-6,36
-2.88
+7.80
4-10.14
+10.07
+7.15
+4.56
+5,33
+3.85
+5.93
+2.63
+0.14
50,524
128.02
116.90
194.09
+6.60
+12.72
[jp> +16.20
-4.92
+5.64
g> -t-16.92
+14.16
+12.13
+11.93
+3.36
+2.59
+ 3.17
+6.01
+0.86
+6.83
p60,372
118.61
111.23
108.87
+4.56
+14.16
p+H,64
-4.92
+13.92
p+13.08
iHll.69
JH-15.44
, +2.56
+2-32
(NA)
+9.25
+1.63
p+8.16
0.00
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment loans3
(Percent)
1.77
1.71
1.74
l'.83
1,83
l!65
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
(HA)
gD>
(NA)
110.80
93.00
87*20
1.73
,1.78
l!?6
l'.76
1.79
l.*75
1.'82
1.90
(NA)
.'.
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement.......Unadjuste.d.series are indicated by ©. Currenthigh values areindicatedby[FD>; forseriesthatmove counter to movements in genera! business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
K>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBFR "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary: "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
1
3
High value (24.02) was reached in October 1963..
High value (52.86) was reached in August 1963.
3
High value (1.57) was reached in May 1963.
35
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Job Vacancies
511 Man-hours
in nonfarm establishments, all
employees
*41. Number of
employees in
nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total nonagricultural
employment,
labor force
survey
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State1
programs
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(1957-59=100)
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
301. Nonagricul- 46. Index of
tural job open*
help-wanted advertising in
ings unfilled
newspapers
Year
and
month
(Thous.)
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment
1965
January
February
March
268
267
270
137
145
148
123.22
123.98
124.44
59,489
59,777
60,072
65,841
65,863
66,150
4.8
5.0
4.7
3.3
3.3
3.2
2.7
2.6
2.5
April
May
June
279
285
280
143
145
146
124.11
124.68
124.75
60,152
60,363
60,623
66,109
66,169
66,582
4.8
4.6
4.6
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.4
July
August
September
285
313
338
145
152
160
124,96
125.87
126.14
60, 841
61,021
61,180
67,061
66,961
67,017
4.5
4.4
4.4
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.3
2.5
2.2
October
November
December
354
359
378
168
181
186
126.59
127.49
128.30
61,437
61,864
62,241
67,197
67,681
67,950
4.3
4.1
4.0
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.1
2.0
1.9
1966
January
«
February
March
392
403
428
128.70
129.75
130.72
62,469
62,811
63,247
68,266
68,186
68,153
3.9
3.7
3.8
2.6
2.6
2.3
1.9
1.9
1.9
April
May
June
i
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
184
191
B> 201
430
425
421
189
185
184
130.07
130.26
' 131.66
63,350
63,517
63,983
68,343
68,351
68,749
3.7
3.9
3.9
2.1
2.1
r2.2
1.8
1.8
1.9
420
426
[£>438
186
189
189
131.44
132.18
131.84
64,072
64,199
64,168
68,920
69,206
69,309
3.9
3.8
3.7
2.4
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
433
417
406
193
194
193
132.26
133.12
133.08
64,466
64,823
65,076
69,420
70,005
69,882
B>3.5
3.7
2
*> r2.3
2 :?
1.9
1.7
1.7
;
l
<
i
393
374
364
189
190
184
|t> 134.03
133.52
133.51
65,381
65,497
g> 65,600
70,240
70,247
69,892
3.7
3.7
3.6
r2.3
2.4
2.6
1.7
E> 1-6
1.7
i
353
350
P347
181
r!74
p!71
r!32.7£
r 132. 71
P133.17
r65,476
r65,412
p65,565
70,020
69,637
g>70,420
3.7
3.8
4.0
2.6
r2.7
2.6
1.9
1.9
2.0
\
i
r^
3 8
'
i
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby <g>. Current high values are indicated by BE>; for series that move counter to movements in genera! business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
EC>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown OH the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised: "p", preliminary: "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
a
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
36
Table 2B
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
1965
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production
(Ann. rate,
bil.doi.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.doi.)
Revised1
Revised1
January
February
March
662*,7
April
May
June
6l'i.l
July
August
September
690 !6
October
November
December
708 1 A
1966
January
February
March
725 '.9
April
May
June
736 .'7
July
August
September
748 ! 2
October
November
December
762 '.1
:
(Mil.dol.)
Revised1
Revised1
22,936
23,076
76,867
76,558
78,734
652^6
609.7
141.0
HI. 8
143.1
524.6
530.6
535.1
138.2
139.9
140.9
78,330
78,643
78,805
666*. 5
620.7
144.3
144.9
144.1
538.1
540.3
555.2
141.7
142.8
143.2
80,776
79,685
79,610 ;
680.6
23,668
23,585
23,753
634 '.4
145.5
146. 7
149.0
550.8
556.0
561.4
145.2
146.9
148.7
698J5
24,330
24,647
24,704
645^4
150.6
152.4
153.7
563.7
567.4
572.3
149.4
151; 5
153*4
84,727
84,530
86,991
716.0
25,081
25,049
25,536
153.9
155.3
574.7
576.1
581.1
154.0
155.0
156.8
85,455
85,426
86,957
722.6
24,949
24,475
25,394
584.7
589.1
594.1
156.9 '
158.5
159.5
86,678
86,995
86,775
737.* 4
25,362
25,572
25,703
597. 5
602.1
605.1
160.5 '
161.3
87,066
*
86,699
g> 87,875
743.' 6
25,550
25,610
25,368
610.4
g>!63,3
162,4,
162.7
87,386
=, 86,299
87,458
759.2
25,687
25,470
25,739.
r86,833
p8?,504
(NA)
E>P773.2
r25,918
r25,980
0>P26,050
1
661 !l
>-
8>p775'.3
(Ann. rate,
bil.doi.)
136.7
138.0
139.2
654/8
,
(Mil.dol.)
57. Final sales *54. Sales of re(series 49 minus tail stores
series 21)
519.2
519.3
522.5
649*. 3
.
*816. Manufacturing and
trade sales
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.doi.)
138.8
139.6
HO. 9
:
-766 !3
(Ann. rate,
bil.doi.)
Revised1
601 !5
;
*52, Personal
income
(1957-59=100)
• : . -
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
*50. Gross na- *47. Index of intional product dustrial producin 1958 dollars tion
49. Gross national product
in current dollars
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
Comprehensive Income
660 !-7 ,
|£>p664.6
:
'!
-
156.5
;
157.2
:: 158.0
157.7
:
158.9
;
•
158.6
g£> 159.0
=•::
158.1
156.4
156.4
r!56.2
• = 155.5
P155.2
:
612,6
615,6
616.5
618.2
g> P621.9
•
162,1
162.2
161,5
p!62.1
80,655
82,214
r 83, 479
;
:•
.-=
22,856
1
22,849
23,317
23,322
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby ®. Currenthigh values are indicated byBt>' for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5 r 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
SC> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles ana sources are shown on the back cover. Series'preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e"P estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA , not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
37
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
1965
January . . . .'
February
March
...
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
PRICES, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
n
.
. .... .
tomprenensive Wholesale
Prices
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, manufactured
goods ©
96, Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
97, Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, industrial commodities®
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(1957-59-100) (1957-59=100)
April ....
May
June
56.37
56. 88
57.45
July
August
September
57,83
58.15
59.38
October
November
December
60.66
61.44
62.53
Bank
Reserves
Money Market Interest Rates
93. Free
reserves ©
114. Treasury
bill rate ®
116. Corporate bond
yields S)
(MiLdol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
101.8
101.8
101.8
+106
13'. 85
101.9
101.9
102.0
15.26
102.1
102.3
102.5
102.1
102.4
103.0
16.37'
102.5
102.7
102.7
17.72
102.8
103, 2
103.2
54.28
55.09
55.53
MONEY AND CREDIT
115, Treasury 117. Municipal
bond yields® bond yields©
(Percent)
(Percent)
3.83
3.93
3.94
4.45
4.45
4.49
4.14
4.16
4.15
3.06
3.09
3.18
-105
-180
-182
3.93
3.90
3.81
4.48
4.52
4.57
4.15
4.14
4.14
3.15
3.17
3.24
103.1
103.2
103.2
-174
-134
-144
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.57
4.66
4.71
4.15
4.19
4.25
3.27
3.24
3.35
103.4
103.7
, 1.P4.1 .;
-146
-83
-2
4.03
4.08
4.36
4.70
4.75
4.92
4.28
4.34
4.43
3.40
3.46
3.54
18* 59
103.5
103.8
104.0
-104.4
104.9
105.0
-44
-107
-246
4.60
4.67
4.63
4.93
5.09
5.33
4.43
4.61
4.63
3.52
3.64
3.72
20! 31
104.3
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.5
105.6
-268
-352
-352
4.61
4.64
4.54
5.38
5.55
5.67
4.55
4.57
4.63
3.56
3.65
3.77
20.54
105.2
105.2
105.2
106.0
106.4
106.4
-362
-390
-368
4,86
4.93
5.36
5.81
6.04
|t>6.U
4.75
4.80
4.79
3.95
4.12
fc>4.12
-431
-222
-165
B>5.39
5.34
5.01
6.04
6.11
5.98
4.70
4.74
4.65
3.94
3.86
3.86
4.40
4.47
4.45
3.54
3.52
3.55
4.51
4.76
B> 4.86
3.60
3.89
3.96
+36
-75
1966
January
February
March
63.80
65.11
66.76
April
May
June
68.25
69.61
71.31
July
August
September
72/65
73.29
75.59
October
November
December
76.38
76.17
§£>76.42
B>
g>2Q'.72
105.3:
105.5 ;
105.5
,. 106.3
106.2
106.2
p2o!32
105.8.
106.0
106.0
106.4
106.4
106.3
-16
-4
4236
4.76
4.55
4.29
5.53
5.35
5.55
106.2
106.3
g>106.6
+175
r+269
p+292
3.85
3.64
3.48
5.59
5.90
6.06
1967
January
February
March,...
April
May
June
75.43
75.13
74.06
r74.02
r75.05
P75.7/
(HA).
106. C
106,0
|£> 106.0
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Currenthigh values are indicated by(E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40,-43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover, Series preceded by
an asterisk (*.) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised: "p", preliminary: "e" estimated: "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
38
Table 2C
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Investment Expenditures
Inventories
*502, Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures1
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
49.*66
60.01
60.66
63.24
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total
1965
January
February
March
1.2
1.1
April
May
June
1.1
1.0
1.1
50.35
July
August
September
0.9
1.0
1.0
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
1.1
65. Manufacturers1 inventories of finished goods,
book value
(Bil. dol.)
112.10
112.42
113.66
22.36
22.43
22.51
£2.87
114.39
115.09
115,74
22.29
22.36
22.34
52^75
64.81
62.89
65.27
116.70
117.71
117.91
22.55
22.53
22.61
0.9
0,9
0.9
55." 35
65.74
'67.47 "
69.94
118.43
119.28
120.90
22.66
22.86
23.14
0.8
0.8
0.8
58.00
70.32
69.74
72.67
121.57
122.54
123.63
23.45
23.62
April
May
June
0.8
0.7
0.6
6o!I6
71.34
70.52
72.01
124.70
126,18
127.58
23.84
24*07
24.14
July
August
September
0.6
0.6
0.6
73.57
73.39
74.39
128.71
130.04
130.84
24.50
24.67
24. 8g
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
0.7
0.6
0.6
|£> 62.80
74.18
73.84
74*72
132.39
133.86
135.55
25. OS
25.54
26.00
0.6
0.6
0.6
61*65
r70.44
r69.50
r68.85
136.59
136.78
137.09
26.40
26,67
26.83
April
May
June
0.6
r66.79
p66.71
r!37.35
0>pl37.4l
.
63.12
62.73
fc>
a6l.55
(NA)
•
23.81
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedby (§>. Currenthigh values are indicated by[B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
tt>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBFR "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a"f anticipated; and "NA , not available.
1
Series is discontinuous because of the exclusion of data on expenditures for construction of public utilities beginning with
January 1967; therefore, the high value indicated refers only to the later segment.
39
Table 2C
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Lagging Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
1965
MONEY AND CREDIT
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs
Interest Rates on Business Loans
and Mortgages
Outstanding Debt
68. Labor cost (cur.
dot.) per unit of gross
product 0958 dol.),
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Index of labor
cost per unit of output, manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
(Dollars)
(1957-59=100)
(Mil.dol.)
*72. Commercial and
industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Mil.dol.)
*67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, |35| cities© 1
118. Mortgage yields,
residential®
(Percent)
(Percent)
3
3
Revised
Revised
January
February
March
.663
98. 8
98.8
98.7
60,069
60,666
61,308
44,175
45,205
April
May
June
.665
98.6
98.7
98.6
62,053
62,709
63,304
46,793
47,497
48,764
July
August
September
.665
98.6
99.0
99.7
64,028
64,684
65,370
49,129
49,840
50,478
October
November
December
.663
100.2
100.1
99.7
65,990
66,689
67,323
50,946
51,346
52,174
99.3
99.8
99.9
67,920
68,458
69,107
r 53, 255
r 53, 747
54,522
100.6
100.5
100.9
69,638
70,131
70,680
55,118
r56,134
r57,874
100.8
101.7
102.4-
71,244
71,846
72,321
59,348
58,982
59,349
102.5
103.4103.3
72,701
73, H5
73,466
59,879
60,010
59,732
104.8
105.3
105.7
73,746
73,962
74,226
60,754
60,525
61,167
6.' 13
6.62
6.46
6.35
105.6
106.0
g> P106'9
_
74,439
g> 74,632
62,407
61,898
g>p63,341
5 '.95
6.29
6.44
6.51
46,170
4.*97
5.45
5.45
5.45
4.*99
5.45
5.45
5.44
5*. 66
5.44
5.45
5.46
5*.27
5.49
5.51
5.62
5.*55
5.70
(NA)
6.00
5.82
(NA)
6.32
6.45
6^30
6.51
6.58
6.63
£> 6.' 31
(NA)
g>6.81
6.77
1966
January
February
March
.670
April
May
June
.679
July
August
September
.687
October
November
December
.693
1967
January
February
March....
April
May
June
g^
.Vll
(NA)
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by[J>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
(J>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
3
40
Prior to 1967 data are based on 19 cities and refer to the last month of the quarter.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
Table 2D
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Major
PRICES, COSTS,
Economic Process AND PROFITS
Minor
Comprehensive
Economic Process Retail Prices
81. Index of consumer prices ®
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)
1965
January
February
March
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
Foreign Trade and Payments
89, Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (-) in U.S. balance
of payments
b. Official
a. Liquidity
settlements
balance basis
basis
(Mil. dot.)
(Mil. doi.)
86. Exports,ex- 861. Manufacturcluding military ers' new orders
aid shipments, for export, durable
goods except mototal
tor vehicles and
parts ®
88, Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
:
862. Index of
export orders,
nonelectrical
machinery
87. General imports, total
(1957-59=100)
(Mil. dol.)
603
729
694
228
235
242
1,199.0
1,606.0
1,860.9
+3 86f 5
2,406.3
2,299.3
2,234>7
720
718
899
238
241
238
1,811.3
1,796.6
1,848.2
+207
+557.7
+503.6
+433.3
a, 299. 5
2,328.9
2,291.3
829
785
722
241
245
231
1,741.8
1,825.3
1,858.0
-259
-916
+464.5
+437.5
+451.1
2,349,3
2,378.1
2,362.2
705
891
984
228
234
233
1,884.8
1,940.6
1,911.1
111,0
111 ..6
112.0
-651
\
-443
iH-324. 0
14-366*1
14-501.2
r2,271.6
1-2,371.2
r2,568.9
852
849
904
237
201
227
1,947.6
2,005.1
2,067.7
April
May
June
112.5
112.6
112.9
-122
-175
r+249.9
r+348.3
r+354.4
r2,358.8
2,410.8
r2, 489.4
749
976
1,078
195
217
217
2,108.9
r2,062.5
2,135.0
July
August
September
113.3
113.3
1U.1
-165
+861
14-250*7
1+339.0
1+234-4
r2>455.4
r2, 451.6
r2,534.2
805
826
1,059
201
199
200
r2,204.7
2,112.6
r2,299.8
October
November
December
114.5
114*6
114.7
-419
-18'
r+319.7
14-299.8
r*184;-6
r2,5S0.7
r2, 486.1
r2,4a5,8
865
785
1,200
240
235
225
r2, 261.0
r2,!86.3
2,231.2
1967
January.
February
March
114.7
114*8
115,0
-544
-1,822
+324.6
+397.1
+384.4
2,620.2
2,601.2
2,569.1
891
833
90?
234
196
252
2,295.6
2,204.1
2,184.7
April
May
June
115,3
115.6
116.0
(HA)
+435.4
+426.2
+355.3
2,659.4
2,544.8
2,583.5
r772
pi, 041
p225
:
-818
109.3
109.6
110,1
+199
July
August
September
110.2
110.0
110.2
-457
October
November
December
110.4
110.6
111.0
1966
January
February
March
Apri 1
May
June
:
•
+28.5
108.9
10S.9
109.0
-834
+16.7
+878.0
+239
(NA)
+595.0
+502,7 :
]
1,257.5
1,622.7
2,738.9
(NA)
r215
(NA)
2,224.0
2,118.6
2,228.2
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® , Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover, The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; °e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
41
Table 2D
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Other Selected U.S. Series- Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
1965
January
February
March
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Federal Government Activities
95. Federal
84. Federal
surplus (+)
cash surplus (+)
or deficit (-), or deficit (-)1
national income and product account
(Ann. rate,
(Ann, rate,
bil.doL)
bil. dol.)
Revised1
101. National 91. Defense
83. Federal 82, Federal
cash receipts cash payments defense pur- Department obchases, cur- ligations, total
from1 the pub- to the public
rent dollars
lic
92. Military
prime contract
awards to
U.S. business
firms and
institutions
(Ann. rate,
nil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
Revised3
(Mil. dol.)
118.9
120.7
48U
4,278
3,839
4,624
1,005
700
1,355
2.37
2.44
2.46
2,097
1,846
2,451
130.*6
129.6
49.2
4,593
4,630
4,520
1,444
1,402
1,254
3.24
2.46
2.58
2,843
2,150
2,390
-i'.s
+4*. 5
99. New
90. Defense
Department ob- orders, defense
products
ligations,
procurement
(Mil, dol.)
(Bil. dol,)
(Mil. dol.)
Revised2
April
May
June
+4.9
July
August
September
-3.2
-5*.8
122.6
128.4
50-3
4,258
5,223
5,276
1,128
1,741
1,732
2.62
2.81
3,45
2,313
2,775
2,419
October
November
December
-Q.I
-9*7
122.7
132.4
52. \
4,962
4,896
5,669
1,733
1,212
1,882
3.28
2.57
2.53
2,790
2,995
2,988
134.7
147.6
55*1
5,100
5,179
5,879
1,639
1,736
1,904
3.40
3.04
3.38
2,940
2,850
2,913
158.' 6
143.9
58.4
6,444
5,447
7,084
2,109
1,620
2,415
3.30
2.91
3.68
3,359
3,061
3,724
3
+1.0
3
1966
January
February
March
+2.2
April
May
June
O.2
July
August
September
-0.7
-14.8
145.4
160.2
63.0
4,998
7,215
6,579
1,753
2,251
1,866
3.50
3.16
4,67
4,016
3,170
3,530
-3,3
-4.1
147.2
151.3
65.6
6,059
5,939
6,023
1,931
1,723
1,937
3-31
2.73
3.36
3,396
3,252
3,501
-11*. 9
-i.i
1!55! 4
156.5
?b'/2
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
2.85
3.33
3.24
3,338
3,849
2,984
l65.*3 '
153 '.3
p72.6
6,211
7,896
(NA)
1,715
2,608
(NA)
r3.27
r3.85
P3.67
2,920
4,121
(NA)
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
(NA)
-12.9
3
+U*.7
3
+12*.5
3
3
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p" r preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" r not available.
1
Beginning with 2d quarter 1966? data reflect graduated withholding of personal income taxes and change in schedule for depositing withheld and OASI taxes.
3
See "New Features-and Changes for This Issue," page v.
3
Reflects accelerated corporate tax payments.
42
Table 2E
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
U.S. Series Under Consideration
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
UNCLASSIFIEE) INDICATORS
Unclossifiet 1 Indicators
850. Ratio,
output to
capacity
manufacturing
Year
and
month
(Percent)
1965
January
February
March
(Ratio)
:
0.076
0,072
0 . 077
0.054 ;
:
111.7
112.6
112.4
7.7
.. .
1.47
0.078
0.084
0.081
112.4
112.6
112.4
7.6
.. .
1.44
1.48
1,48
3.02
3.12
3.23
112.4
112.5
112.5
0.064
»..
0.085
0.096
0,104
112.8
112.7
113.2
7.2
.. .
1.47
1*45
1.45
3.28
3.23
3.16
115.4
116.4
117.3
0.060
*.*
0.111
0.118
•0,126
113.2
113,5
113.0
7.6
. •.
90.6
1.43
1.45
1.42
3.21
3.28
3.25
118.9
119.1
120.0
0,053
0.133
0.145
0.150
113.4
113.3
113.2
7.5
'^0.9
1.46
1.48
1.47
3.37
3.40
3.50
120.2
122.0
122.4
0.057
*.«
0.154
0,147
0.143
113.5
113.4
113.7
...
6.9
.. .
90.6
'1.4.8
1.49
1.51
3.49
3.54
3.64
124.7
125.4
126.8
0.057
0.144
0.145
0.154
113-8
113.8
113.9
6.8
89.8
1.52
1.54
1.54
3.67
3.67
3.62
125.8
126.0
127.0
0.150
0.154
0.141
114.1
114.0
113.9
6.9
37.0
1.56
1,58
1.57
3.64
3.68
3.58
126.8
128.5
126.3
0.073
0.139
0.130
0.131
114.3
114.7
114.8
p84.7
1,58
pi. 57
(HA)
3.73
3.71
P3.71
125.4
124.4
p!23.2
pO.069
0.125
0.121
pO.112
114.9
114.9
pll4.8
88,6
October
.November
December
1967
January
February
March
1.46
1.46
•
107.1
108.0
107.4
0.052
...
88.5
July
August
September
• :i.M
3.01
3,07
2.98
109.2
110.8
111.0
July
August
September
April
May
June
1,47
853. Ratio,
854. Ratio,
855. Ratio,
j 856. Ratio,
857. Vacancy 1
production of
•personal saving ' nonagricultural
average earnings' rate in private •
business
to disposable
job openings
rental housing
of production
personal income unfilled to
equipment to
workers in
consumer goods
persons
manufacturjng to
unemployed
consumer prices
(1957-59:100)
(1957-59:100)
(Ratio)
(Percent)
(Ratio)
3.04
3.13
3.15
88.4
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders
to shipments,
manufacturers'
durable goods
(Ratio)
1.46
88,5
April
May
June
April
May
June
851. Ratio,
nventories to
sales,
manu:
acturing
and
0
trade
'.
.
-
•
0.066
...
...
...
6.5
... 1
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement, Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are show^on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" t not available,
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
43
Table 2F
BASIC DATA
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
International Comparisons
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES
Industrial Production Indexes
47. United
States, index
of industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122, United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
121. OECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial production
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)
125, West Germany, index of
industrial production
126, France, 127. Italy, index 128. Japan, inindex of indus- of industrial pro- dex of industrial
trial production duction
production
(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
166
169
166
239
239
244
Revised*
1965
January
February
March
140
HI
147
147
150
130
129
128
146
146
144
156
155
149
137
139
139
April
May
June
141
142
143
149
150
150
128
129
128
146
148
148
154
154
155
140
139
142
169
175
176
241
238
244
July
August
September
144
145
144
152
154
155
130
129
128
148
148
149
151
153
155
144
144
144
178
176
178
243
240
247
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
146
147
149
156
158
160
130
130
131
150
150
151
156
154
154
147
147
150
179
184
183
241
244
246
151
152
154
161
163
163
r!32
rl31
rl34
r!52
rl52
r!54
r!57
r!56
160
r!47
r!50
151
186
r!88
r!91
252
251
r257
April
May
June
154
155
156
164
163
163
r!32
130
130
153
153
154
r!58
157
160
150
150
r!53
r!88
196
r!95
r26l
r265
r267
July
August
September
157
158
158
163
164
166
132
131
r!30
r!53
r!52
rl54
157
154
155
154
154
r!56
r!95
r!95
r203
r273
277
r279
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
159
159
159
167
168
167
r!29
128
129
r!53
152
153
154
153
151
153
156
156
T201
201
r205
r285
r291
r299
158
156
156
166
166
165
129
r!29
129
rl53
r!53
r!53
150
149
rl50
156
r!54
156
r205
r210
208
r301
r300
r309
156
156
pl55
pl68
(NA)
pi 29
(NA)
pi 53
(NA)
150
P149
153
p!52
(NA)
p210
(NA)
313
p3H
(NA)
April
May
June
139
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and M NA", not available.
A
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
See "New Features-and Changes for This Issue," page v.
3
44
Section TWO
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—77 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—77 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—22 industries
Retail sales—23 fypes of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings-—l$ Commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—78 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
JULY 1967
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Business cycle peak
Current expansion
March
1967
April
1967
Nov.
1948
June
1967
May
1967
July
1953
May
1960
July
1957
LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more «
7 months
6 month's
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
21
"*4
2
21
4
2
IS
24
2
19
1
"i
14
5
1
2
1
2
4
2
"l
28
\
2
24
I
1
1
2
1
2
1
"2
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
30
7
30
0
21
29
0
5
1
24
0
29
0
26
4
29
0
2
4
2
1
4
1
3
4
7
3
4
4
4
3
18
17
21
19
21
14
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
1
1
3
3
1
•v"3
2
3
4
2
3
3
1
3
2
3
1
3
"3
"e
3
3
2
3
2
21
19
21
14
21
U
20
30
18
11
<
7
1
2
2
1
1
5
3
1
3
2
3
1
Apr.
1957
Apr.
1953
Aug.
1948
3
1
1
1
5
3
6th month before business cycle peak
3d month before business cycle peak
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
5
Jan.
1953
May
1948
Feb.
1960
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
17
1
7
5
25
1
3
1
5
1
2
2
2
1
4
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
1
24
4
26
8
1
18
4
1
1
1
1
1
2
11
29
0
24
12
2
1
5
1
1
3
29
0
3
2
1
1
5
1
4
2
7
26
27
22
*i
2
1
2
1
29
3
8
7
2
4
4
I
1
1
1
29
3
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
2
1
1
2
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
.. .. .
3,
1
2
"i
1
1
5
4
8
6
8
5
4
2
18
44
18
44
21
10
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
5
8
21
38
2
1
4
i
i
2
3
3
6
18
33
1
2
4
10
2
1
10
4
18
56
21
19
2
6
3
1
3
2
4
21
19
NOTE: All quarterly series are omitted from the distribution. The number of series included varies because some series are not available for all cycles and because
those series which reached a peak during the Korean War are omitted from the 1953 distribution.
46
CHART 2A
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1967
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indexes
(NOV.) (OCt.|
P
T
P
(July!
p
(Aug.)
I
(May) (Feb..
P T
9 - m o . span.—
1 -mo. span -—
Dl. Avgi workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 Indus,
06. New orders, dur. goods indus.-36 Indus.
Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 indus., NICB (3-Q span— l-Q span*
034. Profits, FNCB of NYf percent reporting higher profits-700 companies (1-Qt span)
019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks- 77 indus.
023. Industrial materials prices-13 indus. mtls.
05. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.-47 areas (inverted)
1948
49
S©
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
6©
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for tfiasa series are shown on pages §0 arid Si
47
CHART2B
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1967
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.;
P T
Percent
041. Impteyees in nonagri. establi$tonent$~30 indus. (6*mo. span— 1-mo. span——)
047. Industrial production-24 indus, (6-mo. span— 1-mo, span
)
j
OH, Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods-22 indus. (ft-mo. span— 1-mo. span—-)
/ / v\\
..Jl
of retail stores-2|Mpes of stores
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Ofisrts 1 arjd 2.,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 52.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
48 of St. Louis
Federal Reserve Bank
span— 1-mo. span
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
CHART2C
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1967
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
(July] (Aug.!
P
I
(Nov.) (Oct.)
. P
T
(iuly) (Apr.]
P T
(May) (Feb.
P T
Percent
Actual
Anticipated
D35. Net sales, alt mfrs.-8QO companies (4-Q span)
D36. New orders, dur. goods mfrs.-400 companies (4-Q span)
048. Carloadings-19 mfrd. commodity groups (4-Q span)
D48. Change in total carloadings
(millions of cars-4-Q span)
061. New plant and equipment expend.-17-22 Indus. (1-Q span]
Series number and
date of survey
1st Q 1966-lst Q 1967
3d Q 1965-3(1 Q 1966
4th Q 1966-lst Q 1967
D35, D36 (Mar. 1967)
D48 ('June 1967)
D61 (May 1967)
l
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
Anticipated
Actual
!; m i
56
57
58
3d Q 1966-3d Q 1967
3d Q 198B-3d Q 1967
2d Q 1967-3d Q 1967
:i MI
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 53,
49
Table 4A
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1967
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indexes
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
Year
and
month
1 -month span
9-month span
06. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries {36 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
1965
January
February
March
61.9
57.1
76,2
83.3
81.0
78.6
48.6
38.9
63.9
75.0
77.8
April
May
June
19,0
81.0
28.6
61.9
47.6
54.8
50.0
44.4
58.3
July
August
September
52.4
59.5
40.5
71.4
64.3
81.0
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
71.4
81.0
54.8
95.2
92.9
83.3
57.1
69.0
40.5
83.3
76.2
31.0
April
May
June
50.0
50.0
33.3
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March .
.,
April
May
June
Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
76
65
68.1
66.7
68.1
71
76
59.7
41.7
61.1
91.7
83.3
80,6
53
82
61.1
55.6
76.4
81.9
86.1
83.3
59
71
30.6
50.0
84.7
75.0
75.0
66,7
65
76
35.7
45.2
35.7
41.7
50.0
51.4
72.2
58.3
59.7
53
53
21.4
61.9
64.3
38.1
9.5
19.0
50.0
59.7
37.5
55.6
44.4
41.7
32
41
45.2
40.5
19.0
9,5
19,0
rU.3
50.0
44.4
55,6
36.1
31.9
r27.8
41
P35
69.0
'7.1
76.2
r9.5
P9.5
31.9
38.9
55.6
r41.7
P47
(NA)
P30.6
r50.0
23*8
P36.1
'
r50.0
r6l.l
p6l.l
77.8
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered wilnin spans; 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
50
Table 4A
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1967
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Leading Indexes-Continued
Year
and
month
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common 023. Index of industrial materials prices
(around 700 corpora(13 industrial materials;
stocks (77 industries)®
tions)
1-quarter span
1965
January
February
March
1-month span
, ;57
i. .
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week including the 12th (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
92,2
81.8"
64.3
80.5
58.4 i
51.9
53.8
30.8
69.2
69.2
76,9
61.5
24.5
57.4
66.0
78.7
78.7
59.6
April
May
June
56
70.8
66,9
0.0
58.4
72,7
67.5
76.9
53.8
57.7
69.2
53.8
53.8
61.7
59.6
51.1
66.0
61.7
78.7
July
August
September
57
24.7
79.9.
81.2
61.0
59.1
63.6
46.2
42.3
50.0
46.2
46.2
46.2
34.0
38.3
78.7
80.9
87.2
70.2
October
November
December .....
1966
January
February
March
60
66.9
70.1
57.1
60.4
67.5
70.1
15.4
34.6
61.5
46.2
38.5
53.8
57.4
44.7
51.1
62.8
91.5
95.7
.59
74-0
48.7
14.3
51.9
43.5
37.7
61.5
76.9
46.2
53.8
61.5
61.5
38.3
44.7
83.0
91.5
74.5
44.7
April
May
June
59
63.6
3.9
23.4
22.1
11.7
6.5
30.8
42.3
46.2
53.8
30.8
15.4
53.2
45.7
57.4
68.1
76.6
78.7
July
August
September
50
38.3
6.5
3.9
9.7
22.1
20,1
61.5
26.9
0.0
7.7
7.7
7.7
17.0
72.3
80.9
80.9
34.0
34.0
October
November
December
1967
January
54
25.3
88.3
59.7
47.4
58.4
66.2
19.2
30.8
57.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
36.2
46.8
27.7
23.4
17.0
46.8
48
90.9
92.2
61.0
85.7
90.3
46.2
53.8
23.1
0.0
15.4
55.3
17.0
46.8
27.7
8.5
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
(NA)
76,0
74.0
51.3
23.1
61.5
69.2
:
X
' "
.- .
*26.9
:...;•;,.:
55.3
54.3
55". 3
23.1
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no
adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated bv (u).
1
Average for July 19, 20, and 21.
51
Table 4B
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1967
beef
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes
041. Number of employees in
nonagricultiiral establishments
(30 industries)
Year
and
month
1-month span
'D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries) ®
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month span
9-month span
1965
January. .......*.
February
March
73.3
70.0
86.7
81.7
78.3
80,0
79.2
70.8
77.1
83.3
85.4
87.5
72.7
52.3
65.9
81.8
86.4
81.8
63.0
65.2
30.4
80.4
87.0
87.0
April
May
June
63.3
63.3
88.3
80.0
81.7
75.0
56.2
70/8
91.7
83.3
83.3
79.2
72.7
75.0
61.4
79.5
70.5
63.6
54.3
87.0
43.5
73.9
87.0
87.0
July
August
September
88.3
70.0
71.7
88.3
91.7
93.3
81.2
75.0
54.2
87.5
91.7
87.5
50.0
56.8
61.4
65.9
65.9
77.3
80.4
47.8
73.9
95.7
91.3
95.7
October
November
December
88.3
93.3
86.7
90.0
95.0
93.3
79.2
83.3
87.5
87.5
89.6
100.0
70.5
70.5
70.5
88.6
90.9
90.9
78.3'
78.3
37.0
95.7
95.7
91.3
1966
January
February
March
85.0
85.0
91.7
95.0
91.7
86.7
70.8
70.8
87.5
95.8
91.7
87.5
79.5
75.0
72.7
88.6
95.5
93.2
76.1
65.2
60.9
82. 6
84.8
7B.3
April
May
June
73.3
76.7
91.7
85.0
81.7
73.3
64.6
58.3
87.5
70.8
75.0
62.5
70.5
86,4
75.0
95.5
95.5
86.4
43.5
3C.4
95.7
78.3
82.6
78.3
July
August
September
48.3
73.3
23.3
75.0
75.0
71.7
45.8
60.4
39.6
64.6
58.3
52.1
72.7
54.5
47.7
72.7
72.7
63.6
47.8
47.8
6C.9
76.1
65.2
B2.6
October
November
December
75,0
88.3
63.3
83.3
70.0
68.3
60.4
50.0
58.3
62.5
47.9
r37.5
63.6
63.6
54.5
63.6
72.7
72,7
43.5
69.6
41.3
87.0
78.3
82.6
73.3
36.7
51.7
r53.3
35.0
P41.7
33.3
27.1
r39.6
r45.8
r33.3
p20,8
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
39.1
43.5
65.2
P73.9
,
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
r41.7
40.0
p75.0
r43.8
r25,0
P41.7
47,7
56,8
50.0
r60.9
r41.3
P34.2
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table 5
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. -Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
52
Table 4C
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY
1967
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Year
and
month
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)®
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) ©
D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)®
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (18 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Anticipated
Actual
1965
January
February
March
Anticipated
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
90
*88
90
*84
63^2
84.2
+25
April
May
June
*88
'as
*88
'al
63.' 2
84.*2
+20
July
August
September
'88
'90
'89
*87
73.7
73.7
+28
October . .
November
December
89
91
*88
'90
73^7
89^5
+18
January
February
March
*87
*91
•*85
*89
57*. 9
84.2
+20
April
May
June
*84 "
*88
' 82
*83
(NA)
78." 9
"+i
July
August
....
September
*72 - ; . .
'84
"68
" 32
78.9
-50
*80
52.6
r-91
Actual
Anticipated
56.2
65.6
75.0
68.8
83.3
65.6
75.0
84.4
83.3
62.5
83.3
71.9
55.6
37.5
75.0
65.6
55.6
50.0
(NA)
41.7
1966
October
November
December
(NA)
*84
(NA)
':-..'•
. • * •
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
*82
*78
78,9
58.3
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-auarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA"F not available.
Unadjusted series are indicated by (j£).
53
Table 5
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
JULY 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data and Direction of Change
1967
1966
Diffusion index components
April r
March
February
January
December
November
June p
May
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURINGl
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
i
n
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures . *
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products.
/ •} -2
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
44.0
40.9
42.0
:
41 . 7 + !
40.0 - i
43.6 o
•40.6 +
41 . 5 +
41 . 8 39.7 +
43.6
40.8
41.7
41.7
41.1
41 .0
39.2
40.8
36,5
43.0
l
38.5 +
41 .0 - ;
o ;
36.5
i; 43.6 -•i
^ 39.0 - r
42.2
42.6 - i
42.0
- 'l
38.8 - i|
o
i
/.I 1 41 .7 + '
42.5 —
42.2 o F
r
+
o
o
+
(69)
42.1 40.3 o
40 . 8
-
+
+
!
o
40.2 +
40 5 +
42.4 - :
41 . 5 + ii
42.2 + II
40.4
i!
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
41 . o - | 40.3 +
'
\
o '
-
- i
o i
I
l
(19)
u
TV
42.7
+
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
\
*;,
f
<
+
- '
- >i
- I:
1
_ i 40 9 +
A2 1
:
;
!
+ :
J1
41 . 5
40.3
40.1
41.5
40.8
41.4
42.1
41.8 - s
42.3 - I
40.0
42.9
39.9
40.7
40.9
38.7
- i>
41 .0
36.7
43.2 - i
38.6 + I
j
42.0 42.4 41 .4 o
38.9 - *
41 . 8
41.8 +
41 .4
+ ; 38.4
-
(
+
+ '
o
+ o I
+
+
o
+
+
41 .0 +
37.5 +
40.1 + •
35.6
41 . 2 - '
38.6
+ ^
+
+ I
38.0
(7)
42.7
+ ]
40.5
r40.4
(76)
(50)
(24)
37.1
40.2
j
j
41.7 - i
40.6 o '
40 . 1 +
41 . 6 - :
40.7 - \
41.4 o
43.0
40.0
40.7 +
41.5 39.2 +
:
41.1
38.5 +
40.3 +
35.5 + i
42.8 - I
(38)
:
r.42.0
r40.2 - !
r40 . 1
+ i:
r41.0
40.0
41.4 o •
- i
j
r41.4 -
41.7
40.1
39.9
41.1
40.5
41.1
r42.2 o
+
r39.9 o
+
r41.4
- ' r41.1 - l
o
r39.6
42.2
39.9
41*1
40.9
39.5
40.6 +
40.8
:
38.2 + '
39.7 40.6
40.5 - i
36.2
r35.9 - i
42.7 - , 42.5 - f
38.7 - I 38.2 + •
41 .7 - : r41.3 + :
r42.6 +
42.9
41.2
r40.9 + ;
37.8
r37.7 - :
40.9
39.1
40.2
35.5
42.4
41 . 5 -f
40.6
40.2
41.3
42.7
38.5 +
41 .7 o
43.1
41 .0 + '
36.9 +
38.5 o
41 .4 +
42.8 +
40.7 +
^
40.4 +
39.8
40.9
41.2
39.6
38.5
41.5
42.9
41.1
37,5
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
-
!
1
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals.
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans barrels and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops,
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
,
Service industry machinery*
23,027 + ii 23,960 - 1 22,072 +
(44)
• i (56)
'i
(32)
;j
jl
+ !.:
3,588
1 , 834 +
+
+
'i 3,677
il 1,737
i
...
-'
...
...
•ji
3,315
1,495
2 275
.,
i
2 OA9
4-
H
+ i!
I
+i
3,675
+ t 350
/
+ *
+ ii
+ }
.\
- 1
- "l
+ ii
'•I
I
1
*
+i
, , .
;
_
2,224
2,247
'
.•. .*_.:.
3.582
J,**
- *S
o ?r
343 u
!
3,391
2U
+
1
1
„ f
568
144 +
+
263 +
**
-4
I
(61)
. » .+
...
+
• P2.108
2,136
*
...
+ j
(NA)
(NA)
+
.,
t
3,620
p2,022 —
-f
+
+
+
...
i
! p3,515
3,429
3,351
1
11 _ ^
+ 1
+1
)>
291
[
309 - r p^ + -
3,266
296
+
546
210
+
+
s
"I
+
(
329
+
252
+
+
+
"*1
/
A
'
612 +
:
586 + 1
218 + 1
J
239
'
+
+
267 +
+
... +
...
315
... + i
• i
+
249 +
+
+ :•;
+
':
23,765
(61 )
r3,637
+
4"
r23,900
I
580
250
711
266
•I
+
+ *
+ '\
. . ,
1 ,434 +
_
(50)
3,236
1,701 +
3,013
+
|'
2 403
:
(56)
(39)
3,427
1,805 _
+
22,226 +
22,065 +
22,329
:
(NA)
(NA)
+
p641
p203 +
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
...
P251
+
+
(NA)
...
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted "by source agency.
Table 5
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1966
1967
Diffusion index components
November
December
January
March
February
April
May
June
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES^Continued
(Millions of dollars)
Electrical machinery
*
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment!
Electronic components.
Other electrical machinery*
+
\
V
'
q oca
3 507
794
+
\ 750
f
833
4*
t
;
~ 1\
4-
675
749
V
724
J/
4.
703
..
+
ijf
...
}
^
J
781
r
4-
1
4-
«; 71
A
2,
f i*f
l
6 5A.O
*
...
...
•
r
T>A 1i/^u
yn
ro,
***
»•.
*J Q11
?>
7 I I
^ 7QQ
J)
'77
c'7'7
Sj!?/ f
4.
...
». .
4.
4-
+
4.
.. .
...
:
4.
4.
j
+
J
4-
4
...
_
...
p76/4
.. .
'
44.
(NA)
...
/
+
%
i
4-
4,
r7*7/,*;91lun
*.«
...
...
*..
4-
4-
4
+
44-
+
P757
4-
+
1
4-
/«» \
(NA;
I
- f 683
f7
793
'
+
i
r7U + i \
.. .
+J
r3,196
4- i
4- T
-
4 '
I
o ^5^,9
—
4-
4.
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
3,552
4- f
I
4-
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
Complete aircraftf
Aircraft partsf
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
II
» •.
...
4
.
.. .
4.
—
4- I
+
* . .
i
I
.. .
4- I
f
...
4- i'"j
:
. « *
,
'
4-
+
4
_—
4T
[
-
^
91 .i3:
•
(51)
...
^
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 -10)
4- \
80,99 4- 1
81.33
+ 1
84.45
':
(60)
1
(91 )
(88)
Coal, bituminous
Food composite.
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobi les
Radio and television broadcasters
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors,
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
i
!
?
Index of 500 stock prices
4
- i
+
!
. . .+ '
...
*
4-
...
...
+
4
4-
+ :' t
...
+ s-!
...
4-
4- $
. . .
4-
4-
+ ••%
!l
- + '
• .. ,
4. ;
4-
• 4
... 4
_
::;
.. *
•41-
!i
:+i
j
4.
i
1
+ |
4^
•'• ' +
...
'•'I
4-
• •.
*..
* . «•~-
4.
:
...
i[
f
i
44, i
+
+
...
...
•••
I.
+ !S
4.
. *.
•• •
...
4" i'
4-- ||
;
4.
...-
'• ' :
.. *
•
+
+
4
4
^
i-
+
4-
...
...
|;
_j_
Ii
'i
... 4.' !'
•..
.. . i
(
***
...
!
90.96 + ii 92.59
(76)
...
...
...
'
i
(74)
J . , ' . +-t+
..*
...
i
+
... 4-
I
... +
j
...
„
... + I
I
...
+ i;!
+
...
... +_
...
+ i;
^
+ 1 :::
i
!
i
'
t
+ u-
4.
...
+
. . *+
4-
+
_J_
4
.. .
** *.*..
.. .
***
+ '•
+ •
+
... +
+
4.
•
si ••
4-
4-
•
•••
+j
i
•
•
]
'
' 4
+
4.
•"
(61 )
4 i
+ ''
I
...
"**
4-
4-
•j*
:
4
4-
!!!
4"
:
4-
+j
4-
i
89.42 + j
f
I
4- !
(92}
4
+
87.36 4- I
4
f.
4- ;
• • •• 4 I*
'+ "
_
i-
'
4
i!
4 I '
_
i
4-
I
;
.,.
.. .
...
4
44.
- I
44,
4.
\
i
4.
I
— i
i "
-
\i
t|
1
1
!
" * *
...
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are-shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r - revised.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
f These industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
x
55
Table 5
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
JULY 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
1966
Diffusion index components
June
May
April
March
February
January
December
November
Julyi
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
1
- j 105*9 - !
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59=100)
I
105.8 + i
j
106.8 - v
j
105.2 - i
i
i
102.5 - I
i
t
100.1 - !
]
99.5 +
99.8
98.2
(69)
.368
.065
29.016
1.557
.142
.145
.219
.194
1.677
.166
10.721
.214
.051
(23)
.366
.065
27.451
1.550
.141
.144
,224
.193
1.645
.151
10.872
.208
.049
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.).
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
+
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.).....
Tallow (Ib.)
4o
-
Zinc(lb.)
+
o
(31)
.499
.063 +
28.942 1.512 +
.148
.141 +
.222 o
.211
1,640
. 170 410.872 +
.215 +
.056 +
(58)
.469
.063
28.882
1.528
.148
.143
.221
.208
+
+
+
+
1.633
.180 410.905 +
.223
.061
(46)
.500
.062
26.316
1.547
.149
.147
.221
.201
1.624
.211
10.938
.219
.061
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
(54)
.459
. 064
27.603
1.580
.150
.150
.220
,202
1.628
.202
10.828
.209
.056
+
+
-i-
-
(23)
.398
.062
29.301
1.610
.151
.150
.218
.197
1.601
.177
10.732
.204
.050
+
-
+
4-
(23)
.343
.063
26.812
1.569
.150
.146
.218
.192
1.605
.159
10.669
+
4+
+
+
+
.201 +
.051 +
(62)
.371
.064
28.261
1.528
.142
.141
.217
.193
1.663
.157
10.753
.201
.052
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims ...
Percent rising of 47 components
Northeast region:
Boston (6)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson(22)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (251
North Central region:
Chicago (2).
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26).
Detroit (51..
Indianapolis (23).
Kansas City (19).
Milwaukee (16)
212
194
(28)
(47)
(17)
(55)
256
263 +
(47)
4-
4-
+
4,
+
4-
+
4-
+
+
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
(55)
.**
4-
+
225
234
(54)
(55)
4-
4-
4-
4-
4
4*
4,
...
+
_j_
\
4+
4.
...
...
4-
44-
...
. .
+
-|_
,.,
... 4-
.
4- •
.
44-
4-
4*
4-
4.
...
...
.
44*
... 4-
...
... 4. . . 4-
+
+
+
4-
4*
4"
+
4.
t
4*
4.
+
...
...
.t
t
4-
4-j-
+
+
+
4.
...
-j-
+
St. Louis (8)
f
4,
+
4-
Minneapolis (13)
South region:
Atlanta (18)
Baltimore (121
Dallas (15)
Houston (14).
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24). '
San Francisco (7)
Seattle (171
242 4-
203
...
4-
-(.
4+
4_
4-
...
4-
...
4-
...
4-
...
4,
4.
44-
...
4-
.
4~
* »
4-
...
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Average for July 19, 20, and 21.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank.
2
56
bed
Table 5
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1966
1967
Diffusion index components
November
December
January
April r
March
February
May r
June p
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRiCULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(Thousands of employees)
^ + 1 6^,823 + | 65,076 + ' 65,381 + * 65,497 + J> 65,600 - ^ 65,476 - ^ 65,412 +
All nonagricultural establishments
Percent rising of 30 components . . . . .
f
+ :
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products . .
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
-f
+
....
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
*
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Servi-ce and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
*
:•
"
'
!
!
f
;
i;
(88)
|
131 +
530
385
507
1,103
1,074
1,348
1,358
1,395
281
355
< )
133 +
529 +
384 511 +
' 1,092 1 1 » 07 5* 1,360 +
! 1,355 +
;, 1,392 285 +
i!
355 +
!
i
]
l
+
+
+
+
o
'
63
<«
'
'
''
i
i
!
f
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
i
1,186 - i,
1,184
$
74 o :
74 + i
I'
847 + i;
848 - f
J 1,250 + J 1,251 + :
':
531 - i 530 + '•
•
662 + ;
666 +
1;
581 +
582 + !i
:
+ :
115 o ;
115 o
f;
417 o
+ :
413 + : '
308 - :
o
310 624 + "
- 1
+ '
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
l
<
•
>•
^
i!
3 ?OA +
!
4 195 o
3,505 +
9,888 3,110 +
9,778 +
2,621 +
8,483 +
i.
'••
"
is
i'
!
1
i-
(73)
136
539
381
515
1,090
1,074
1,363
1,357
1,362
287
358
+
-
1,183
77
847
1,257
531
673
584
115
417
+ <
(3v)
'
l
!•
j
141
537
379
507
:
1,071
f . 1,070
- 1,357
1
1,355
+
+
+
-
1'
(52)
*
(A2)
?
1
'
*
144
538
375
509
1,052
1,064
1,352
1,336
1,362
288
349
- 1
- ;=
- i- !•
143
524
370
497
1,029
1,050
1,340
1,306
1,343
287
!
^
!
+ i:
- ; 1,361
!
o ;
- ,!
- ;
- i
+
o ;
- ;
- i
307
626 +
628
3.301 +
3 293 +•
4 196 +
4 , 230
3,530 +
3,515 + '
9,877 + i 9,973 +
3,121 + '
3,129 +
9,869 +
9,821 + ;'
2,662 +
2,629 +
:
8,591 +
8,553 +
;
'
;
'
:
1
287 -f
352
ii
1,184
72
838
1,242
533
673
583
114
412
302
626
3 350
4 225
3,535
9,989
3,142
9,919
2,673
8,636
+ i
o j
- ,
-«- !
+
- !;
- ;
- l
+
o
+
o
+
+
+
+
:|
;'
i.
'
j
i
1,189
72
836
1,222
534
677
579
113
408
298
-
r
-
]
-
'
0
:
349
:
+
+
o
o
+
+
+
,i;
ij
'!
:
1,177
74
830
1,231
531
677
579
114
409
302
(40)
1
145
516
371
490
1,024
ii 1,042
1,336
1,289
+
1,352
- :!
284
348
+ *
- 1
- •
+
i
+
+
-
'
i
"•
ii
+ [
- i
- !l
-fo
h
+
148
515
369
491
1,022
1,045
1,333
1,251
1,365
284
349
1,181 +
74 + '
826 +
+
1,236 +
- ii
530 + i
- •
676 +
- 'i
578 +
o
114 +
365 + •
299 o
+
o
65,565
(75)
J
1,184
75
832
1,243
536
680
582
115
372
299
620
623
627
617 +
3,251
3,321
3,146 + : 3,155
4,236
4,238 o
4,186 +
4,223
3,565 o , 3,565
3,567
3,554 +
10,031 o : 10,031
10,017 +
9,993 +
3,201
3,159 + ' 3,173 + • 3,184 + •;
10,040
9,981 + , 10,005 + . 10,025 +
2,730
2,688 -i- ! 2,691 + ' 2,701 +
8, 834
8,699 + 8,739 + .' 8,781 +
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59-100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass, and lumber
Clay glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous ,.
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
158.6 +
1
t
(50)
159.0
l
'
(58)
1
158.1 - ! 156.4 o i
;
;
(27)
'
(33)
156.4 - :f
(40)
i:
156.2 (44)
155.5 - .
(25)
:;
155.2
(42)
i
;
131.9 o . 131.9 - ' 129.2
166.6 - •" 165.0 - si 162.9 -
138.4 - ;
164 7 + ^
136.2
- 1
188.2 -i190.1
172 9
181.4 +
190.4 + • 190.7 - I
188.3 - i 187,2 - j
164.6 - l>
171.5
184.6 + ' 186.2 - 1
- ?•
136.5 +
109.5 +
+ -
168.7 - '
i
- '
!
;
!:
136.9 +
+ •
112.8
i
137.2 - !
115.7 +
187.3 185.3 159.4 +
183.4 +
-L ^ / . AJ.
!!
i
'
is
129.0 o |i
160.2 +
129.0
161,3
128
160
185.2 - ::
182.0
164.5 + '
185.8
183.5 - ^
179.4 - j
!
167.7 +
185.2
182
171
171
184
;;
134.0 - j i
120.8
181.9
178.2
168.2 + :!
185.1 - •
o '
133.2 + *
117.2
136.9 - !! 134.9 116.9 + L 120.2 +
127
133
(NA)
173.9 + j 174.0 . 3
160.9 - I
158.5 +
166
170.6 - ! 166.5 o
172.1
166.5 o ; 166.5
159.2 - , 158,7 + +
159
157.1 + :! 158.2 +
160.3
... I
•
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
+ !
+ :
1
Data
2
are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
57
Table 5
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY
bed
1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1966
1967
Diffusion index components
November
December
January
February
March
May
April
June
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:*
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile m i l l products
Apparel products
Leather and products
i
1
+
-
< HI. 3 149.3 +
• 110.3 +
+
+
153.7
144.7
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
+
199 . 4
129.1
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
+ ; 129.7
'
141.4 150.5 - 111.1 -
i
o r!34 0 +
\j±jj . \j
1 rl36.2 - !rl35.0 o {Ipl35.0
> (NA)
r!43.6 - ip!41.9
' (NA)
100.5 + ip!06 2
|
I
;
139.3 - I
' 150.2 - ;
• 107.7 -
136.7 146.4
103.7
i
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
+
+
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Meta! mining
Stone and earth minerals .
'
!
!
+
198.7
1?9 0
201.6
198.6 +
126 7 19&.8 -
' 132.0 -
117.2 +
114.0
119.3
+
. . . . -f
-
202.0
-
143.7
+ . 154.0 + •• 145.5 +
152.6
+
-
;
133.0 +
133.4 +
119.3
131.9
118.5 +
125.2
119.0 +
120.7
119.3 +
134.2 +
139.3 -
140.3 +
138.7
:
152.4 - ,rl51 9 +
152.4 o
146.1 +
' 146.8 + 'r!47.9 -
:'
:
r!98.B
r!31 9 plB6 9
:
+
131.7 +
116.2 +
r!32.6 p!2B.8
:
115.7
119.6 -
115.1 +
rll*.3 -
jrl2 r ;.5
rllB.2 o
142.1 +
136.6 +
143.7 -*•
137.2
196.3
120.2
"
pl5?.2
-rl47.6
r!99.3
130 1 +
r!91 5
200 . 5 127 4 +
131.3
:
I
-
rl8l 5 p!98.1
pl28 4
p!34
»
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
j
pi 49
(NA)
p!47
;
pi 81
'•
•. (NA)
(NA)
(NA)
. (NA)
131.3
p!31.6
(NA)
p!31
(NA)
(NA)
r!4Q.6 130.6
120.1
118.2 -t
<
pl33.9
pl?9.2
p!17
p!21
pl35
(NA)
(NA)
106 2 •f
10^ 3 +
:
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries
•
106 2
0
: 106
(64)
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables.
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
2
106 4 o
-f
(54)
+
o
+
+
0
+
+
+
103.0
100.3 +
103.3 o
102.8 -4
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
f
-f
-f
•{••
121.0
104. 8 +
113.1 +
112.2 +
+
120.5
104.9
.113.2 +
112.4 +
121.8 f
104.8
o
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
+
+
o
+
'107.8
100.7
101.7
107 4
+
+
o
+
* 108 . 1 +
101 . 5 4
101 . 7
107 5 •+
+
112 6 +
103 0
105 1 87.7
105.5
112 8 o
"102 7
104 8
.
86.9 +
"105.4 +
+
o
+
-
103.0
o
• 98 0 +
'• 101 . 3
95.0 o
'117.5 -
'103.0
98 2
• 100 . 2
95 0
• 117.3 '
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products . .
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products.
Hides, skins, leather, and related products.
+
o
103.3 +
102.9 +
100.4
+
+
+
+
+
106 3
(73)
(77)
102.5
106 4
103.6
100.4
103.7
103.2
(48)
(57)
106 6
(50)
(^7)
o
+
-t•t
103.6 +
100.6 o
103.8 +
103.3
104.1 -f100.6 +
103.9
o
103.2
104.2
100.8
103.8
103.2
+
o
•4
-f
104.7
100.8
" 103.9
103.3
112.8 4-
122.3
104.8 o
113.6 +
113.0 o
121.1
,104.8 +
113.7
113.0 o
120,0
104,9 •f
113.6
•*•
113.0 4
118.9
105.1
113.7 o
113.2
118.7
104.9
113.7
113.1
108.5 H
101.9
101.6
o
107 9 4
108.7 H-101.8 -t101.6 o
108 0
108.8
102.2
-101.6
107 8
o
+
o
+
-108.8 +
102.3
101.6 o
108 0 o
108.9 •+
101.9
' 101 . 6 108 0 -f
109.1
101 . 8
101.4
' 109 6
112 8
102 5
104 7 o
' 87!l o
i 105.7 -t-
111 7
101 8
104 7
: 87.1
: 105.9 +
110 6
101 3
4
"
86.9
-106.0 +
110 7 +
• 100 3
103 1 +
' 86.3 ' 106 . 3 +
:
• 103.3
' 98 5
' 101.9
i!
95.8
:
118.0
-103.6
• 98 5
;
102.4
i 95 9
!U7.0
i 102.6
100.4
103.6
103.0
113.6 o
103.1 +
98 4
j 100.3
95.6
i 117.9
k
+
+
+
+
+
o
-f
+
-
110 0
100 8
102 9
86.8
106.2
104 o
+
+
o
-
'
'
i
j
103.9
98 8
101.7
95 9
116.0
f
+
o
o
+
-
' 103.9 o
'• 98 8
103.7
.•95,8 o
;
115.4 -f
' 112 6
; 99 7
i
103 2
85.8
;106.7
j!03.9
• 98 5
'103.1
'95.8
J115.6
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (•) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary. r = revised.
2
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
58
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 5
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1967
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1966
1967
Diffusion index components
December
November
January
February
Aprilr
March
Junep
May
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
+ \ 25,610 - i 25,368 +
"
Grocery stores
Other food stores
- ''
+
+
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . . +
Variety stores
+
+
Other general merchandise stores
+
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel , accessory stores
-
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores *
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
'
-
;
'
L
. . . .+ ,
..,»» + ;i
• +
f
+ "
+
- .;
+ ,
+ i
Gasoline service stations
+ •
Drug and proprietary stores
Liciuor stores.
.... * . . . . * . . . . * . « * . . « • • + i
Jewelry stores
»\
+
(70)
i
(41)
5,437 - '
+
1,979 + '
2,273
238
503
25,687
'i
(87)
+ -f
;
+ :
+
+ ::
+ ;:
(39)
5,417 +
.
,
25,739 + ; 25, 918 . + ir25,980 + < 26, 0 5 0 ^
25,470 + i'
'
:
•
5,452 + "
'
(44)
(61)
2^2 775 - .:
416 +
737 +
249 +
+
4,445 o
282 + ;
536 + >'
+ r
233 + "
741 -f
2,026 + ' •
2,036
2,191 + -:
2,244
230 220 +
472 - :
486 - •:
425
747
250
...
4,445
300
316
!
876 + :
!
570 - ;
+ '
+
+ ;
+
:
+ •
317 - ';
587
***
250
792
I
!
(41)
5,535
5,513
-
P5,496 o
2,046
2,200 +
223 +
448 +
2,034 +
2,278 +
r230
520
P2,053
p2,284 +
P215 +
P503 +
;
(35)
(NA)
,
4- : l
...
303 - •
573 - ;|
1,939 -
5,376
...
2,019
2,162
216
475
;
304 + 'i
;
315 + •
557 + >'
:i
576
- :
239
4-
;:
- ::
- i;
228 +
755 +
i;
449
801
257
...
4,085
309
- .:
441
794
255 +
-
429 +
803
259
+
4,298
306 +
1,931 +
1,915 -f
877 + '!
892 ». H . •
564 + i: " ' - ' • • 591 +
780
-
:
+ ;
+ ,
1,968 - '
883 +
595
4,291 +
311 +
+
333
614 - 'i
P320
P591 =:
-
... +
- ,
... +
... - .j
... +
...
•f
... + •;
...
:
- :.
(NA)
(NA)
...
254 - ;i
791 + =
423
779
269
- ,
4,348 +
312
P251 P797
P418
p748
p259
;:
(NA)
(NA)
+ 1
o -:
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4-
...
P4,459 +
P299
(NA)
(NA)
:
1,964 + ; 1,992 + p2,0l6
p906
906 o
889 •+ •:
;
p601 609 - v
584 + i
... +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
...
-f
:
-•
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
- •
...
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+)= rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are heid confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
59
Section THREE
^
charts
REFERENCE CYCLES
Currenf expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles
CHART 3
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JULY
bed
1967
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES
PERIOD COVERED
Percent
—
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949}
— July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
........ ju|y 1957 to Feb 196i (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
-Reference trough dates
29. New bldg. permits,
private housing units
Percent
•««— Inference trough dates
1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.
180
170
10S
ISO
m
104
140
102 ^
^j
130
120 «
M
100*<8
110
<
100*
eo
80
200
6. New orders, dur. goods Indus.
190
ISO
31. Change in book value, mfg. and
trade inventories (ann. rate,
bil. dol; 5-term moving avg.p
ill tW
III
ISO
150
+18
140
+12
130 ^
MO 1
110
0
-4
-12
0
+12
+24
+38
+41
+80
Months from reference troyghs
+12
+12
+24
+38
Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used.
percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level. *Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak. ORoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
Digitized for 62
FRASER
+4S
+80
+72
Months from reference troughs
1 Lines represent actual data rather than
CHART 3
bed
JULY
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
1967
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Percent
—— Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
""— July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
—— July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
-Reference trough dates
17. Ratio, price to unit
labor cost, mfg.
Percent
«
110
— Retertnce trough dates
105
23. Industrial materials prices
140
130
100*
120
110
ioo*;
y
90
Bil dol.
+12
70
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
113. Change in consumer installment debt
|ann. rate, bil. dol.)'
200
190
180
+10
+8
170
160
+6
150
140
*?
130 ^
at
120
+4
»
+2
110
100*
90
-2
80
-12
0
+12
+24
+36
+48
+60
Months from reference troughs
+72
+84
-12
0
+12
+24
+36
Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used.
percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
+48
+60
+72
+84
Months from reference troughs
1 Lines represent actual data rather than
63
CHART 3
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JULY
1967
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued
PERIOD COVERED
—
Percent
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949}
* Reference trough dates
"—" July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954}
—— July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958}
41. Employees in nonagri.
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961}
120
establishments
Percent
150
115
- Reference trough dates
50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q
140
110
^
130
105
120
100*
110
95
160
oo*
160
150
100
47. Industrial production
140
816, Mfg. and trade sales
140
130
130
esi
120 M
o
00
120
110
110
100*
100*
eo
90
-12
0
+12
+24
+38
+48
+60
Months from reference troughs
+72
+84
-12
0
+12
+24
+36
Current data are shown in table 2, The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used.
*Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
64
+48
+60
Months from reference troughs
+72
+84
CHART 3
bed
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JULY 1967
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued
PERIOD COVERED
jj
Percent
— Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 {Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
......... Juiy 1953 to Apr 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954}
—~ July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961}
220
—-—Reference trough dates
61. Business expenditures, new
plant and equipment, Q
— - —Referencefcougftdates
43. Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)1
67. Bank rates on short-term
business loans, Q
55. Wholesale prices,
industrial commodities
140
130
120
105
100*
-12
0
+12
+24
+31
+48
+80
+72
Months from reference troyg&is ^
+84
0
+12
+24
Iflontfss 1mm
+31
+48
+10
+12
+84
trayghs
Current data are shown in table 2, The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than
percentages of reference peak levels.
* Reference peak'level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
4- Latest data anticipated.
65
CHART 3
JULY 1967
bed
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES-Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Bil riol
. Nov. 1948 to-Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949}
. July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
- July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
-Reference trough dates
95. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product account, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)1
Percent
<«—Reference trough /-0
dates
62. Labor cost per
unit of output, /
mfg.
/
+20
+15
115
+10
110
+5 g
GO
/ *
'"1 \
105
100*
-10
95
160
71. Book value, mfg.
and trade inventories
Percent
change
+12
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
lann. rate, percent ;6-term moving avg.)1
150
+10
140
+8
130
+6
120
+4
110
+2
100*
-2
90
-12
0
+12
+24
+36
+48
+60
Months from reference troughs
+72
+84
-12
0
+12
+24
+36
+48
+60
+72
+84
Months from reference troughs
Current data are shown in table 2. The number in the box indicates latest month (Arabic numeral) or quarter (Roman numeral) for which data are used. 1 Lines represent actual data rather than
percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak, o Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
66
3
to
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Trough
Cycle
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Business cycle reference dates
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October 1860 .
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
". March 1882
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921 .
r
(X)
18
8
32
IB
65
30
22
46
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
(X)
40
54
50
52
101
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
iB
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
• 17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
Z8
41
34
93
93
T&
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
"9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 . .
10 cycles, 1919-1961 ..
4 cycles, 1945-1961...
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
149
54
3
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961..
8 cycles, 1919-1961...
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . .
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
IB
2
4
46
48
42
5
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include.the wartime expansions.
X
25
2
cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
4
4
cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
7
6
cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
67
Appendix-B.-SPECIFIG TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning inSelected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
30.
38
6
10.
29.
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23 Industrial materials prices
19. Stock prices, 1500' common stocks
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113. Change in consumer installment debt
'49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
(NSC) May '24 Jan. '21
' 49 Apr. '38 Mar. '33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
'49 Dec. '37 Dec. '32 May ' 27 July '24 Dec. '20
Dec. '60
'61
'61
'61
'61
»60
Apr.
Mar.
Apr,
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
IstQ
Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
IstQ
'58 Nov. '53 Apr. '49
'58 Feb. '54 June '49
'57 Sep. '53 June ,'49
'58 4thQ '53 2ndQ '49
Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . Jan.
Jan.
Index of net business formation
Jan.
New orders durable goods industries
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Mar.
New building permits, private housing units. . Dec.
'60
'60
'60
'61
Apr.
May
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
Sep.
'54
'54
'54
'53
'54
'53
Apr.
July
July
June
Apr.
Jan.
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Apr. '38 June '32
2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 2ndQ '21
June '24 Mar. '21
(NA)
(NA)
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 May '49
Apr. "61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Jan. '49
Dec. '37 Apr. '32
Feb. '38 Feb. '32
Feb. '61 May ' 58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49
May ' 61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49
IstQ '61 IstQ '58 2ndQ ' 54 2ndQ '49
June '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '38 May '33
(NSC)
(NSC)
4thQ '21
IstQ '38 3rdQ '32
Feb. '61
(NSC)
Jan. '61
Apr. '61
Oct. '49
July '49
Oct. '49
(NSC)
May '38
July '61 Aug. '58 Oct. '54 Nov. '49
(NA)
Aug. '27
(NA)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
47.
52.
816.
54.
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores
Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.
'58
'58
'58
'58
Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan,
'54
'54
'54
'54
** <»)
May '38
July '32 Nov. '27
Mar. '33 4thQ '26
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
Mar, '33
July '24 Apr. '21
2 n d Q ' 2 4 2ndQ, ' 21
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Mar. '22
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
.
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)
(NA)
(NA)
3rdQ '38 IstQ '33
4thQ '27
(NA)
(NA)
3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
2ndQ '61 3rdQ '58 IstQ '55
4thQ '49
Mar. '61 Aug. '58 Oct. '54
Dec. '49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '61 June ' 59
Sep. '55
July '50
June '40
July '33
(NSC)
(NSC)
Apr. '22
July '58 Oct. '54
Aug. '49
Dec. '38
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55
IstQ '50
3rdQ '41
(NSC)
Feb. '28 Nov. '24
Sep. '22
(NSC)
NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actuaj dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as
the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent
business cycles.
NA ~ Not available.
68
NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
Appendix B.-SPECIF1C TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS-Continued
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series
May
i960
July
1957
July
1953
May
1937
Nov.
1948
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . .
38. Index of net business formation
6. New orders, durable goods industries
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . .
29. New building permits, private housing units. .
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q) , . . .
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113 Change in consumer installment debt
June
July
Apr.
Apr.
Sep.
Nov.
'59'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'55 Mar. '53
'55 Feb. '53
'55 Sep. '52
' 5 5 Jan. '53
'56 May ' 51
'55 Nov. '52
Dec.
Nov.
July
2ndQ
'59
'59
'59
'59
Apr,
Dec.
July
4thQ
'56
'5;
'56
'55
June '59
Aug. '59
Oct. '55
Mar. '55
Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
2ndQ
(NSC)
Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '46
(NSC) Nov. '25 Jan. '23
Aug. '48 Dec. '36
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '48
Oct. '47 Feb. '37 Feb. . ' 2 8 July '25 Jan. '24
(NA)
(NA)
'53 July '46
'51 Jan. '48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29
'53 June '48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'53 2ndQ '48 4thQ '36 3rdQ '29
Jan. '51 June '48 Mar. '37 July '29
Dec. '52 Mar. '48 Mar. '36 May ' 29
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '19
(NA)
'25
(NSC)
3rdQ '26
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
Mar. '23 July '19
(NA)
2ndQ '23
Sep. '26
(NA)
June '22 Feb. '20
(NA) '
(NA)
Nov.
"ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagriculturaf establishments. Apr. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Sep. '48 July '37 Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Feb. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Jan. '48 July '37
43 Unemployment rate total (inverted) . • „ . .
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
IstQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (0)
47.
52
816
54
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores
Jan . ' 60
(NSC)
Jan. '60
Apr. '60
Feb.
Aug.
Feb.
Aug.
'57
'57
'57
'57
July
Oct.
July
Mar.
'53 July '48 May ' 37 July '29 Mar. '27 May ' 23 Feb. '20
(NA)
'53 Oct. '48 June ' 37 Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'53 Aug. '48
(NSC) July '20
(NSC)
(NSC) Sep. '37 Sep. '29
'53
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
* . . . . . May ' 60 Sep. '57 Oct. '53 Jan. '49
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
2ndQ '60 3rdQ '57 3rdQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
equipment (0)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '60 Sep. '57 Sep. '53 Feb. '49
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (0)
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Nov.
'48 .Dec. '37
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
Sep. '57
July '53
Aug.
'48
Sep. '37
4thQ '59
4thQ '57
4thQ '53
2ndQ '49
(NSC)
Oct. '29
Oct. '26
Oct. '23 Nov.
(NA)
'20
(NA)
Oct. '23 Feb. '21
NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as the
peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA = Not available.
NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
69
Appendix D.—CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (NOVEMBER 1966 TO DECEMBER 1967)
19 66
19 57
Series
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
13. New business incorporations1
14 Liabilities of business failures
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing2.
30 Nonagricultural placements all industries1
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies ^
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans^
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91 Defense Department obligations total
92 Military contract awards in U.S
5
112 Change in business loans .
301 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
856 Ratio average earnings to consumer prices
857. Vacancy rate in private rental housing x
862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical
machinery
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 6
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
105.3
139.0
86.3
99.3
146.3
112.0
91.3
99.8
83 2
96.7
80.2
-96.
309.
88 7
89 8 101 9 106 6 107 7 114 4 107 8 101 6 100 3
91.2
100 0 101 7
88 2 100 2
0
Q7 ?
79 8
91 6
on n
0-2 q
Apr.
109.1
92.7
95.2
117.2
91.5
98.5
109.6
93.7
102.0
97.4
82.3
-336
1.09.4
QQ
Mar.
Feb.
-390
92.6
100.4
9
-13
109.5
79.2
106.1
81.2
104.4
113.1 110.3
25
153
95.9
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
85.7
99.7
76.9
88.1
86.8
96.2
110 8 100 9
83 3
100 7 113 4 118 4 113 8
135
151
97 8
11
44
%
i
98.8
Ql 0
Q'} Q
on n i nn i
82 6
QO n 1 z.^ 7 i no i Q7 A i nn j
90 1 184 2 94 4 90 7 111 5
oo &
QQ A
oc. r\
QQ ^
91 6
i nn A
i nn "^ i nn 91 f\r\ 9 QQ f.
q i m 8
Q C 0 i nQ ni on Q T n j
101.5 105.2 104.9
-15
100.8
103.1
100.4
+18
99 6
Q
QQ 9
o
m
-10
98 9
94.4
A7 n
86.3
90 6
139.0
99 3
R^ 9
QC
C
•3-1
Q&
QC>
QQ
<£.
92 9
%
fin 9
/
e
&Q A
109.4
QQ 9
im 7
88 2 100 2
QQ Q
9
ejQ o
Q7 9
Q/ -a
7Q 7
Ql
QQ A
Tin 9 i m ^
QQ Q
QQ
Q
1 p|A
S
Si
on i
99 9
99 7 100 1 100 5
101.4
98.6
98.7
99.3
94.4
105.4
97.3
i nn i
99 g
99.3
QC*
Dec.
99,7
99 8 101 3
67 8 101 1 105 0
96 4
Nov.
96.7
75 7
100.0
99.1
106.2
92.1-
100.1
100.5 100.5 100.1
100.2 100.2 100.3
101.4
100.8
98.6
98.6
July
100 4 120.0 113.1
106.1
91.9
99 9
June
99 9 100 7 QQ n
95 3 200 1 72.8
99 3
i pin Qi nn "}
on 1
78.4
May
+A
98.9
...
99.1
...
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method
E Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained-by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
these quantities, in millions of dollars; are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census
Method 31 seasonal adjustment program.
4
Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method I seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
70
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
*41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
*47. Index
of industrial
production
*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
*52. Per- *816. Manusonal
income
facturing
and trade
sales
*43. Unemployment rate, total
Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-July 1921
1923-July 1924
1926-Nov. 1927
1929-Mar. 1933
1937-June 1938
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-17.3
Feb.
Nov
July
July
May
1945-Oct
1948-Oct
1953-Aug
1957- Apr
1960-Feb
19454
1949
-1954 5
1958
1961
-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
(NA)
-7.5
-7.2
-6.8
-3.1
+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions . .
4 contractions since 1948
-5.6
-6.5
-3.6
-16.0
-16.0
-8.8
-1.9
-2.1
-1.9
-2.8
-2.8
-1.3
-2.0
-2.4
+0.1
-7.0
-5.8
-7.0
-2.2
-2.6
-1.4
*41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
mo
*47. Index
of industrial
produc* tion ;
*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q) 1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q) 1
*52. Per- *816. Manufacturing
sonal
and trade
income
sales
Rate at
peak
Rate at
trough
2
2
2
+7.9
1+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
.
4.0
1,9
0.0
11.2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5,1
3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
6.9
3.5
3.9
4.0
7,2
7.6
7.2
2
3.2
2
3
+2.2
+4.1
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8
3
+3.3
+3.6
+3,3
*43. Unemployment rate, total
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
Change
in rate,
peak to
trough
*54. Sales
of retail
stores
*54. Sales
of retail
stores
Change
in rate,
trough
to peak
Rate at
trough
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
1921-May
1924-Oct
1927-Aug
1933-May
1938-Feb
1923
1926
1929
1937
19454
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64,2
+30.4
+ 24.1
+119.9
+183.3
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+ 25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+69.2
+105.4
-3.6
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
Oct
Oct"
Aug
Apr
1945-Nov
1949-July
1954-July
1958-May
1948
19535.
1957
1960
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.9
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4
+34.9
+44.1
+ 22.4
+15.1
+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+ 13.3
(NA)
+50.0
+22.6
+ 16.2
+63.8
+25.6
+ 20.3
+11.9
+0.3
-5.3
-1.8
-2.3
3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
Median:6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expansions . .
4 expansions since 1945
+17.5
+13.0
+13.0
+35.2
+26.6
+23.6
+12.3
+12.1
+11.6
+27.5
+20.9
+28.6
+26.7
+21.3
+25.3
+29.6
+19.4
(NA)
+ 20.5
+16.0.
+ 23.0
-3.7
-2.6
-2,0
7.1
6.3
6.7
2
-8.7
2
2
2
Rate at
peak
?3.2
2
1.9
3.2
11.2
1.1
2 3
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.1
3.3
3.7
3.9
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)of a r or "2" (series41,43,47,52,and816), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the
base. For. series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base
for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list"of 25
indicators.
NA=Not available.
•"-The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p.670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
^Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
71
Appendix F.-HISTOR1CAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
May
Apr.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Annual rate, bil. dol.)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
...
...
...
*
...
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 . . . .
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
.. .
...
. •.
...
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 . . . .
1964 ....
1965 ....
.
.. •
...
...
22.2
20.1
18.9
25.2
20.0
21.7
19.1
26.1
27.2
27.6
19.8
28.0
28.9
24.430.7
31.1
37.7
43.7
...
,..
...
...
...
...
* ..
...
...
...
23.4
17.7
22.6
21.3
18.8
21.8
. ..
...
'.
...
...
...
. ..
...
...
...
19.7
26.5
27.7
26.5
20,2
30.8
27.8
26.4
...
...
...
30.9
32.8
38.2
44.6
...
.. .
...
...
...
23.0
18.4
27.6
19.3
18.8
21.3
...
. ,.
...
...
. ..
...
20.9
27.4
26.0
26.0
22.8
27.9
...
...
...
...
25.5
27.8
31.5
...
...
...
...
...
33.5
39.1
44.8
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
105.6
101.8
112.6
105.1
101.9
101.2
105.2
101.4
110.5
105.5
101.3
99.2
100.1
98.4
104.2
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
.•.
...
* *.
.. .
...
...
22.2
18.1
30.3
20.7
20.7
.. .
* ..
...
16.6
22.5
28.3
27.4
23.7
26.2
27.0
...
. ..
.. .
24.5
30.1
...
.. .
.. .
...
* ..
...
...
31. a
34.9
38.8
47.7
17. Price per unit of labor cost index (1957-59=100)1
105.7
101.4
102.7
114.5
103.6
99.9
104.6
102.2
103.1
113.4
102.8
99.9
105.5
101.1
104.2
111.0
102.4
99.8
106.7
99.4
104.8
110.5
101.1
100.6
' 107.2
100.1
106.7
108.6
100.6
100.0
106.5
99.5
109.8
106.4
102.3
101.9
102.7
101.4
97.2
100.8
101.8
101.0
96.4
97.2
100.5
101.6
101.0
95.1
100.8
96.7
101.0
101.1
101.0
94.2
101.3
97.7
101.9
101.7
100.4
94.8
102.6
98.6
101.6
102.1
101.3
97.1
103.6
98.6
102.3
101.5
101.2
98.7
103.7
99.0
102.8
97.9
101.6
99.8
101.8
99.2
103.1
100.8
101.6
99.8
100.6
102.2
98.5
101.3
98.7
100.7
99.9
101.3
103.0
100.9
98.7
100.7
100.4
101.1
103.1
100.2
99.9
100.2
100.8
101.5
103.5
100.1
100.3
100.3
101.4
101.8
103.7
100.6
100.8
99.9
102.3
101.4
104.5
100.3
101.4
100.5
102.0
101.9
104.6
100.5
101.9
100.5
101.6
101.3
104.2
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
106.7
102.7
101.9
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 . . . .
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965.,...
115.1
104-. 0
100.6
99.8
100.7
99.6
102.0
103.0
106.0
101.3
112.1
105.1
104.1
101.8
101.2
99.1
100.6
100.4
102.0
100.8
101.1
100.1
103.5
103.4
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 . . . .
1958 ....
1959
1960 ....
1961
1962 ....
1963 - . . .
1964 ....
1965 ...•
»..
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
+3.3
0.0
+2.4
+10.5
+5.2
+2.4
-2.5
+4.6
+6.0
+2.1
-5.4
+3.9
+9.9
-3.5
+6.7
+4.7
+4.8
+10.6
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
+5.1
-5.3
+4.8
+15.2
-2.3
+3.2
-2.7
+6.1
...
...
...
...
...
...
... .
...
...
99.7
99.3
100.9
100.1
101.0
100.0
103.2
100.7
100.1
100.4
101.6
103.6
99.7
101.1
99.6
100.9
99.4
100.3
99.5
...
...
...
dol.)
+4.3
-2.2
~7 . -L
+Q "1
i_n . ij.
/
^U
+3.9
+2.1
+6.1
+4.8
+6.1
+8.8
+3.1
+3.8
+5.2
+6.0
+4.8
+9.4
-2.4
+5.5
+6.4
+8.1
+7.7
+9.9
...
! '.
...
...
...
...
100.7
102.1
104.4
+4.3
-5.3
+15.1
+5.1
+5.4
-4.5
+0.7
+2.3
-5.1
98.8
97.5
+1.3
+7.1
+4.3
-2.2
+4.1
-t-A ^
+00
+4.3
96.8
101.8
100.3
97.5
100.1
101.2
-1.7
+4.9
+10.4
+6.0
+4.1
+3.2
+0.1
100.2
98.1
102.0
101.2
98.1
100.3
98.8
+6.1
...
...
...
...
...
104.0
104.8
101.8
21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarin, after valuation adjustment (Annual rate, bil,
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
103.7
101.7
112.5
102.3
109.8
!! .
...
! !!
...
'.'.','.
...
1
Ratio, index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods to index of labor cost per unit of output (series 62).
(July 1967)
72
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
May
Apr.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Percent)
1953....
...
...
18.0
15.7
15.0
15.9
11.9
11.9
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
...
* *.
...
...
....
...
10.8
13.6
12.9
12.3
9.3
11.8
...
...
.. *
...
...
...
.. .
*..
...
...
.. •
.
* •.
11.4
9.7
11.3
10.8
12.2
13.0
...
...
...
...
...
...
10.3
11.1
...
11.3
...
...
...
...
12.1
13.1
...
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1960 . . . .
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
18.5
14.3
16.9
13.1
11.4
11.8
...
...
...
.. *
...
...
...
...
...
...
11.2
13.4
13.0
11.7
9.5
12.6
...
...
...
...
...
*..
...
.. *
...
...
...
...
...
. ..
10.9
17.9
14.9
19.0
11.7
11.2
11.7
11.7
13.6
12.1
11.5
10.4
11.5
10.2
10.6
11.2
11.3
12.1
13.0
16.9
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
•..
...
...
11.7
9.5
...
* *.
.. *
...
...
.. .
.. .
...
...
...
...
*..
. ..
.. *
...
12.1
13.7
12.5
10.8
11,5
11.0
...
...
. *.
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
15.2
19.8
12.3
9.9
11,2
11.1
11.7
11.9
13.5
...
...
...
...
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Annual rate, bil. . dol.)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
248.0
258.5
266.0
318.0
339.5
364.2
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
...
...
...
...
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 . . . .
1965 ....
...
...
...
...
.. *
...
255.6
255.2
275.4
325.8
339.1
367.5
...
360.7
386.2
410.6
436.9
434.7
474.0
...
503.0
503.6
547.8
577.4
617.7
662.7
...
...
...
* **
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
360.4
394.4
416.2
439.9
438.3
486.9
...
...
...
*..
...
...
504.7
514.9
557.2
584.2
628.0
675.4
262.5
257.1
293.1
332.8
345.6
365.8
...
...
i . .* •
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
364.7
402.5
420.6
446.3
451.4
484.0
504.2
524.2
564.4
594.7
638.9
690.0
50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Annual rate, bil.
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961 ...1962 ....
1963 ...1964 - . . .
1965
...
...
»
...
...
...
..*
...
...
317.1
324.5
339.6
374.8
391.4
412.1
402.9
428.0
443.6
453.4
437.5
468.6
490.2
482,7
519.5
541.2
571.1
601.5
...
...
...
...
. ..
...
...
322.9
322.5
348.5
381.5
389.6
416.4
...
...
402.1
435.4
445.6
453.2
439.5
479.9
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
489.8
492.9
527.7
546.0
578.6
609.7
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
. .,
...
...
...
...
325.8
326.1
362.8
388.7
393.9
413.7
...
407.2
442.1
444.5
455.2
450.7
475.0
...
...
...
487.4
501.6
533.4
554.7
585.8
620.7
263.9
255.0
304.5
336.9
357.7
360.8
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
*..
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
373.4
408.8
429.5
441.5
464.4
490.5
...
...
...
.**
...
...
...
...
...
503.3
537.7
572.0
605.8
645.1
708.4
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
328.7
323.3
370.1
388.7
405.3
408.8
...
...
...
.**
...
...
415.7
446.4
450.3
448.2
461.6
480.4
'>t, * * *
...
...
...
...
...
...
483.8
511.9
538.3
562.1
588.5
634.4
...
...
...
...
•*
...
*
dol.)
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
(July 1967)
73
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
May
Apr.
July
June
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
52, Personal Income (Annual rate, bil. dol.)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
202.5
208.9
216.9
244.5
261.9
282.8
202.0
208.0
219.8
247.2
265.7
284.7
205.5
209.1
224.9
249.8
266.4
287.5
206.5
208.1
220.2
252.7
265.8
287.8
207.8
207.6
220 . 7
254.1
268.8
289.1
212.0
205.6
221.8
255.9
270.4
290.3
212.8
204.0
226.1
255.5
269.4
289.8
215.2
205.5
230.5
258.4
276.9
289.2
215.4
208.7
232.7
258.9
279.7
289.1
216.3
205.0
235.8
261.9
280.8
290.9
215.0
207.5
237.9
262.9
280.1
289.1
212.3
208.7
243.3
263.9
282.1
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
287.7
298.2
323.0
343.3
353.8
373.5
288.7
300.0
325.0
346.4
353.5
375.8
287.7
302.4
326.2
347.8
355.3
378.6
286.6
305.5
329.3
348.2
354.6
381.8
287.5
308.1
329.8
349.8
355.8
384.0
287.7
309.2
331.9
352.4
357.6
385.6
288.2
313.9
331.0
353.9
364.0
386.0
289.8
314.3
335.6
355.5
363.8
383.4
291.6
316.5
337.9
354.5
365.7
383.9
293.3
317.9
341.4
354.4
366.4
385.0
296.1
320.4
341.4
354.8
370.8
389.0
296.9
322.5
343.3
353.7
372.6
395.3
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962....
1963 .... ,
1964 ....
1965 ....
396.4
404.8
430.7
457.6
482.4
519.2
396.5
405.5
433.7
455.7
484.6
519.3
396.9
409.5
437.2
457.6
486.8
522.5
400.2
409.6
439.8
458.4
490.1
524.6
401.7
412.2
440.8
461.2
493.0
530.6
401.9
415.8
441.8
464.2
495.0
535.1
402.8
419.6
443.4
465.6
498.4
538.1
403.3
418.8
444.6
467.8
502.6
540.3
403.8
419.8
447.0
' 470.0
505.3
555.2
404.8
424.3
447.9
473.4
506.0
550.8
403.8
428.6
450.4
474.9
509.8
556.0
401.3
431.1
452.6
479.1
515.6
561.4
58.9
54.0
69.2
75. 8
85.7
84.4
288.1
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (Annual rate, bil. dol.)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
56.4
58.2
54.9
69.9
76.3
85.8
56.2
57.7
54.6
71,0
76.9
86.7
56.9
56.4
56.7
72.2
77.4
87.6
55.9
55.6
58.2
73.5
76.5
87.8
57.1
55.2
59.8
73.4
77.2
88.0
57.9
54.2
60.9
73.9
76.4
87.6
58.8
54.3
62.7
73.9
73.8
. 88.1
59.7
53.8
64.7
73.7
79.3
87.6
59.4
54.7
65.0
74.0
82.3
86.2
59.4
52.4
67.3
73.7
83.2
86.5
59.6
53.0
68.3
74.5
84.4
85.2
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
83.3
85.7
94.8
101.5
97.6
103.2
83.5
86.6
95.0
102.4
95.5
104.1
83.1
87.9
95.6
102.3
95.3
105.7
82.5
88.7
97.2
82.8
90.1
96.6
101.9
94.0
107.2
101.4
93.9
108.4
82.5
90.4
97.3
102.1
95.0
108.9
81.9
91.2
95.8
102.0
96.0
108.3
81.9
91.1
98.4
102.3
97.5
105.7
81.6
91.9
99.6
' 101.3
98.6
105.5
83.0
92.9
101.0
100.6
98.1
105.0
84.8
94.3
100.8
100.1
101.7
106.1
102.3
98.8
102.2
109.8
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
111.2
106.4
114.3
120.0
125.8
136.7
111.5
106.1
115.5
119.9
128.0
138.0
111.0
106.6
116.7
120.6
128.5
139.2
111.2
107.6
118.3
120.7
129.7
138.2
111.6
108.6
118.0
122.2
130.1
139.9
110.9
110.5
118.0
123.0
130.6
140.9
110.6
110.9
118.8
123.5
131.8
141.7
109.7
111.5
118.7
123.5
133.2
142.8
108.8
110.2
119.5
124.6
134.2
143.2
108.8
113.0
118.9
125.3
132.7
145.2
107.4
114.8
119.7
125.7
134.7
146.9
104.7
115.2
119.7
126.8
136.8
148.7
85.2
94.5
57. Final sales — series 49 minus series 21 (Annual rate, bil. dol.)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959
1960 ....
1961
1962 ....
1963
1964 ....
1965 ....
...
...
...
...
...
...
.
...
...
...
244.7
258.5
263.6
307.5
334.3
361.8
363.2
381.6
404.6
434.8
440.1
470.1
493.1
507.1
541.1
572.7
612.9
652.0
...
*..
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
.. .
...
...
...
...
500.8
512.8
551.1
579.4
621.9
666.5
256.4
258.8
288.2
322.4
341.3
365.1
366.9
396.5
416.5
443.1
451.3
483.6
363.1
388.3
411.9
437.6
443.4
477.8
...
. ..
250.5
260.5
270.6
310.6
341.4
364.3
...
...
. ..
. ..
.. .
501.1
520.4
559.2
588.8
634.1
680.6
.. .
. ,.
.. .
.. .
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
.. .
...
259.6
260.3
289.4
331.8
352.3
365.3
372.1
401.7
425.2
443.7
460.3
484.2
505.7
532.2
565.6
597.7
637.4
698.5
...
.. .
...
..
...
...
...
...
.. .
(July 1967)
74
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Aug.
July
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (1957-59-100)2
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
77.5
81.0
78.2
80.8
88.1
89.5
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
94.1
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
90.7
92.3
97.3
103.7
100.8
98.8
102,8
100.3
101.0
99.3
98.8
77.4
81.2
77.9
81.9
88.2
90.0
93.9
91.1
92.9
97.6
104.8
99.9
99.7
102.6
100.1
100.5
99.8
98.8
78.4
78.2
80.3
76.9
84.4
88.6
90.2
90.0
99.6
93.8
89.9
93.8
98.3
105.5
98.5
93.0
90.2
93.9
97.5
103.0
97.7
100.4
102.6
100.0
99.8
99.8
98.7
101.1
101.1
100.5
99.2
99.4
98.6
100.9
100.2
80.2
77.6
82.7
88.6
90.2 -
94.4
90.5
93.7
97.6
106.0
77.5
80.9
77.2
84.7
89.7
100.4
99.0
99.0
98.7
77.6
79.9
76.2
85.7
90.0 '
90.4
78.8
80.1
75.8
87.1
88.6
89.6
80.0
78.9
75.9
87.8
88.6
89.9
80.4
78.4
76.9
87.6
89.3
90.3
80.1
78.5
79.1
87.3
89.4
91.8
92.5
89.8
94.4
97.6
101.3
97.5
92.3
89.8
97.8
97.7
100.3
99^3
92.2
89.9
95.6
97.9
100.3
100.3
91.2
89.7
95.3
92.5
89.8
96.4
99.8
99.7
101.3
100.0
10L.9
100.4
100.5
99.5
100.7
98.5
99.4
98.6
100.9
99.0
100.3
99.0
99.2
98.6
100.5
98.5
100.2
99.2
99.7
99.0
101.3
99.4
100.6
99.9
101.4
100.2
101.7
99.7
100.6
100.5
99.8
100.1
101.3
99.6
98.2
101.0
100.4
100.5
98.4
100.3
99.6
101.1
99.7
'
81.3
77.7
80.5
87.7
88.6
92.7
80.9
78.3
80.6
88.4
89.6
94.1
93.4
91.8
92.4
92.0
96.4
101.4
97.4
102.3
99.5
101.0
100.2
99.4
99.7
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations (Dollars) 3
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
,.501
.514
.507
.534
.559
.577
1951....
1952 . . . .
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
...
...
.. *
...
.. *
...
*..
...
. *.
"•
...
.498
.516
.505
.543
..566
.580
.600
.575
.608
.634
.668
.653
...
...
.. .
,..
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
.. .
...
.594
.577
.615
.638
.663
.647
.661
.681
.665
.667
.659
.663
.**
.. .
.. .
...
...
*«
...
.. .
...
...
.669
.672
.668
.665
.662
.665
.513
.507
.506
.542
.575
.582
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
•.*
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.587
.584
.624
.644
.658
.659
.674
.667
.664
.661
.665
.665
...
...
...
.514
,518
.514
.544
.578
.598
...
...
...
...
.584
.592
.631
.653
.650
.660
...
. ..
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.678
.662
.662
.662
.670
.663
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
*..
92, Military prime contract awards to U.S. firms and institutions (Mil. dol.)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951/...
1952 ....
1953 ....
••
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
• *.
...
...
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959
...
.. .
1,474
1,756
2,103
1,625
...
1960 ....
1961
1962 ....
1963 . . - .
1964
1965 ....
1,850
1,989
3,271
2,^29
2,372
2,097
...
*..
...
...
...
...
...
. ..
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
1,388
1,927
1,232
1,898
1,502
1,563
3,243
1,966
1,404
2,312
2,142
2,204
1,782
808
3,043
1,893
1,754
2,186
2,180
2,611
2,958
1,904
1,987
2,552
2,463
1,966
2,451
1,726
2,274
2,295
2,023
2,502
2,843
2,252
1,855
2,140
2,413
2,640
2,150
1,846
...
.. .
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
r
.
,
•
r
,
.
...
...
2,0241,093
2,228
2,222
...
971
1,196
1,619
1,511
2,192
...
1,231
2,108
1,310
1,692
1,964
...
597
2,091
•1,297
2,308
1,793
...
1,136
1,972
1,594
1,880
1,937
...
1,310
1,934
1,819
1,704
2,102
...
2,194
1,891
1,671
2,328
1,298
1,963
2,151
1,993
1,888
2,216
2,580
2,313
2,200
2,143
2,167
2,722
1,963
2,775
2,250
2,033
2,032
2,635
2,163
2,419
1,327
2,494
2,814
2,119
1,967
2,790
1,938
2,308
2,946
1,814
2,075
2,995
1,922
2,491
2,044
2,149
1,997
2,988
2,229
2,127
2,366
1,910
2,390
2
Ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (sum of wages and salaries plus supplements to wages and salaries)
to index of industrial production, manufacturing.
3
Ratio of current-dollar compensation of employees to gross corporate product in 1958 dollars.
(July 1967)
75
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Curren
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
June
May
Apr.
Mar.
Sept.
Aug.
July
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit (-) , national income and product -account (Annual rate, bil. dol.)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 . . . .
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
...
. *.
...
...
...
+10.6
-2.9
+7.6
+8.2
-3.8
-6.2
...
...
-8.1
-4.2
...
...
...
-6.6
+4.0
+5.5
+2.5
-12.4
+0.8
+7.1
...
...
...
...
...
+13.7
+0.8
-4.8
+18.0
+0.1
-4.5
...
«.
...
...
-10.5
+1.3
+6.3
+4.3
...
-4.9
-5.0
-2.4
-2.5
+4.5
...
*
...
*.
* *.
...
...
...
+5.6
-4.5
-4.6
+1.8
-6.3
+4.9
...
...
+5.9
-3.9
+16.4
+0.1
-7.6
-5.7
...
...
...
...
...
...
..*
-5.0
+5.0
+4.9
+2.6
-10.8
...
...
.. .
...
.. .
...
.. .
...
...
. ,.
...
.. .
...
...
+3.4
-3.9
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
.. .
. •.
-1.0
...
...
+1.5
-3.8
-2.6
...
.. .
* *«
-0.6
-1.9
.. .
...
+2.1
-0.6
-0.4
...
...
.. .
...
...
• 13.1
17.1
+1.2
-2.7
-3.2
101. National defense purchases, current dollars (Annual rate, bil.
1948 ....
1949; . . .
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
9.8
12.8
12.5
24.1
42.5
49.2
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
...
...
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
...
.. .
...
...
...
44.4
38.7
...
...
38.4
43.4
44.7
46.5
45.0
46.9
51.1
51.2
50.5
48.4
10.4
13.4
12.6
30.4
45.7
49.5
...
.. .
...
...
...
* *.
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
42.0
38.2
40.4
44.1
45.7
46.1
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
44.4
47.7
53.0
50.5
' 50.7
49.2
.. .
.. .
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
. ..
...
...
14.2
...
...
-1.8
+6.0
+6.0
-1.5
-9.8
-0.6
-3.2
dol.)
12.0
10.7
13.7
...
+17.1
-1.3
-3.7
-11.7
37.7
47.0
48.4
.. *
...
...
39.9
39.2
...
40.4
44.8
46.3
...
.* *
45.7
...
44.6
47.7
51.3
51.0
49.8
50.3
...
.*
.. .
42.1
48.5
47.6
38.5
38. 1
42.1
. ..
...
. ..
...
...
...
44.6
46.9
45.9
...
...
45.8
...
...
.. .
,..
48.9
50.9
50.3
48.9
52.4
58
59
60
68
69
76
77
59
61
69
69
77
78
81
91
99
96
...
123. Canada— index of industrial production (1957-59=100)
56
59
60
56
56
59
61
70
71
79
58
59
61
71
71
79
57
60
62
82
92
99
96
103
78
84
93
100
96
103
109
107
117
124
139
147
109
106
118
126
138
150
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
70
70
78
70
70
78
.1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
78
82
92
97
95
101
79
1960 ....
1961 . . - .
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 « . . .
110
107
116
123
137
147
•
59
61
57
59
65
70
72
79
58
60
64
60
66
71
72
79
57
59
64
71
72
78
71
74
78
70
75
79
59
60
67
69
76
78
77
84
96
98
97
105
77
86
94
98
97
105
77
87
96
98
97
105
77
87
97
98
97
106
78
89
97
98
97
106
78
89
97
96
97
107
78
90
98
95
97
109
79
90
99
96
99
107
107
109
118
126
141
149
107
109
120
128
139
150
107
111
121
126
140
150
106
112
122
127
140
152
106
113
107
115
122
131
143
155
107
115
123
132
142
15-6
107
116
123
134
144
158
122
129
142
154
100
108
107
116
122
135
144
160
(July 1967!
76
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
June
May
Apr.
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
850. Ratio, output- to capacity, manufacturing (Percent)
1948 . . . .
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
* *.
...
...
...
...
...
*..
...
...
91.1
83.9
81.9
96.8
91.7
96.6
84.2
87.4
89.4
86.7
71.9
80.6
84.1
74.5
82.0
82.0,
84.5
88.5
...
...
...
. *.
...
...
*..
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
90.2
79.8
88.5
95.8
88.4
96.8
83.2
90.2
88.2
85.0
71.2
84.9
82.0
78.0
82.4
83.9
85.7
88.4
...
...
...
...
...
89.8
79.8
95.2
92.2
89.3
95.1
...
...
...
...
...
...
91.1
85.6
84.0
75.3
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
82.7
80.7
80.0
80.2
82.4
83.7
86.3
88.5
...
...
...
...
...
87.7
77.3
96.1
91.1
95.8
88.4
...
...
...
...
' .. *
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
83.9
91.5
87.6
78.6
77.7
79.8
76.5
81.5
81.8
83.7
86.2
88.6
.**
...
* •.
.*•
...
...
...
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing- and trade (Ratio)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950..,.
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1.38
1.52
1.48
1.38
1.63
1.55
1.44
1.43
1.62
1.53
1954 ....
1955....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958
1959 ....
1.65
1.49
1.51
1.551.65
1.51
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
1.50
1.61
1.49
1.51
1.47
1.46
1.52
1.42
1/54
1.61
1.54
1.42
1.55
1.39
1.56
1.58
1.55
1.42
1.53
1.34
- 1.59
1.58
1.57
1.62
1.48
1.54
1.54
1.67
1.49
1.63
1.47
1.54
1.56
1.68
1.48
1.60
1.45
1.54
1.59
1.66
. 1.47
1.62
1.46
1.55
1.59
1.64
1.46
1.52
1.60
1.50
1.50
1.48
1.47
1.55
1.57
1.49
1.50
1.49
1.44.
1.54
1.57
1.48
1.49
1.47
1.46
1.57
1.56
1.49
1.50
1.47
1.46
1.41
1.54
l/:42
1.54
1.43
1.48
1.63
1.41
1.53
1.46
1.54
1.64
1.61
1.56
1.43
1.51
1.23
1.62
1.58
1.60
1.62
1.52
1.62
1.60
1.47
1.55
1.58
1.61
1.48
1.60
1.47
1.63
1.58
1.59
1.49
1.60
1.49
1.58
1.58
1.56
1.54
1.60
1.46
1.57
1.61
1.56
1.54
1.58
1.48
1.56
1.61
1.55
1.54
1.57
1.53
1.51
1.49
1.48
1.47
1.58
1.54
1.51
1.47
1.45
1.44
1.59
1.52
1.51
1.50
1.46
1.48
1.58
1.52
1.51
1.50
1.47
1.48
1.59
1.51
1.42
1.54
1.22
1.44
1.49
1.33
1.63
1.55
1.48
1.51
1.46
1.39
1.62
1.52
1.49
1.49
1.47
1.62
1.54
1.65
1.62
1.52
1.55
1.51
1.49
1.55
1.65
1.52
1.52
1.61
1.51
1.50
1.52
1.48
1.45
1.59
1.50
1.52
1.49
1.44
1.45
1.54
1.48
1.56
,
1.47
1.50
1.39
1.64
1.52
1.67
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (Ratio)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
. .
6.05
...
...
...
6.19
6.01
5.87
5.91
6.07
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
5.11
4.05
4.43
4.57
3.89
3.51
5.04
4.03
4.50
4.56
3.93
3.45
4.89
4.02
4.54
4.54
3.98
3.47
4.72
3.99
4.51
4.57
3.96
3.39
4.66
4.50
3.96
4.52
4.37
3.76
3.28
1960 ....
1961
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 . . - .
3.31
3.29
3.01
2.95.
2.80
3.01
3.30
3.29
3.02
2.93
2.85
3.07
3.24
3.20
2.91
2.99
2.88
2.98
3.23
3.17
2.90
3.00
2.88
3.04
3.19
3.08
2.94
2.91
2.98
3.15
...
.**
.. *
...
...
*
t
f
t
4.01
4.57
4.53
3.91
3.29
3.20
3.11
2.90
2.97
2.91
3.13
...
5.67
...
...
5.73
5.55
5.37
5.50
5.46
5.36
4.29
3.74
3.42
4.38
4.12
4.92
4.10
3.61
3.79
4.39
4.09
4.74
4.14
3.51
3.83
4.49
4.23
4.60
3.93
3.48
3.93
4.28
4.22
4.60
3.92
3.50
3.81
4.11
4.27
4.55
4.00
3.49
3.44
3.11
3.13
2.92
2.83
2.92
3.02
3.29
3.06
2.82
2.89
3.04
3.12
3.23
3.06
2.89
2.96
3.02
3.23
3.25
3.05
2.88
2.90
3.08
3.28
3.27
3.05
2.82
2.92
3.08
3.23
3.21
3.02
2.94
2.85
2.96
3.16
4.31
4.12
f
...
(July 1967)
77
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
May
Apr.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (1957-59=100)
1948 ....
1949 . . . .
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
105.5
103.0
81.4
92.2
121. A
115.3
104.6
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
107.5
94.2
102.3
106.2
94.8
92.1
104.1
112.2
95.8
93.0
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
99.8
100.5
98.5
100.5
99.3
99.7
102.7
103.1
107.1
102.4
102.5
108.0
112.9
99.0
102.8
83.9
93.5
121.9
114.8
106.3
99.9
83.0
96.3
122.5
114.8
104.9
98.4
83.2
100.7
121.9
114.5
105.2
122.9
113.2
104.6
93.5
85.8
105.8
119.9
113.7
110.5
116.1
114.1
114.3
115.7
114.9
102.1
97.9
110.2
110.2
91.1
98.2
100.9
99.6
110.2
108.6
89.9
100.5
100.2
98.9
110.3
108.2
99.4
99.4
98.8
96.3
102.8
101.2
105.4
111.0
99.8
96.6
102.6
104.8
96.2
84.8
103.3
105.1
95.7
105.9
111.7
95.9
93.7
103.1
97.1
109.2
99.8
97.8
100.3
101.3
104.3
107.4
97.9
97.1
99.0
100.8
101.6
104.0
109.2
101.1
101.4
104.9
110.8
111.9
93.4
94.9
96.3
91,1
85.9
90.1
100.6
102.1
105.4
112.4
105.9
89.2
87.8
106.3
87.5
87.6
115.7
115.7
115.0
111.2
107.5
91.4
100.5
97.7
99.9
112.3
106.9
93.9
101.0
99.7
95.9
103.5
102.5
105.9
112.5
100.0
98.8
103.2
103.4
106.6
112.5
103.3
83.5
90.5
118.3
115.2
113.1
103.8
82.2
91.5
118.8
114.3
110.8
104.0
83.4
91.4
119.3
115.4
97.6
97.8
100.1
113.9
103.0
91.9
102.9
95.9
101.1
112.6
101.8
92.0
101.5
98.9
98.1
104.1
99.2
98.8
103.5
103.8
108.2
117.3
102.2
112.2
105.8
94.8
101.8
99.2
97.7
104.4
103.5
108.4
115.4
104.0
108.8
116.4
110.0
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Ratio)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
0.068
0.048
0.064
0.089
0.070
0.075
•0.050
0.060
0.088
0.047
0.078
1951../.
1952 ....
1953 ....
0.067
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
...
0.073
0.051
0.065
0.067
0.068
0.062
1960 ....
1961 . . . .
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
...
...
...
...
...
0.052
0.052
0.059
0.049
0.052
0.054
**
.**
...
...
.. *
...
...
...
...
...
0.084
0.049
0.032
0.085
0.086
0.073
...
...
...
...
...
0.062
0.055
0.070
0.071
0.066
0.063
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
**»
...
.. .
...
...
.*>
...
...
...
0.047
0.056
0.062
0.048
0.064
0.052
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
0.059
0.060
0.072
0.069
0.072
0.047
0.052
0.060
0.054
0.046
0.058
0.064
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
.. .
...
...
.. .
...
...
0.079
0.043
0.068
0.082
0.069
0.076
...
. *.
...
. *.
...
0.061
0,061
0.073
0.064
0.074
0.054
...
0.045
0.062
0.048
0.054
0.066
0.060
...
0.026
0.083
.. *
...
...
855. Ratio, nonagri cultural job openings unfilled to number of persons unemployed (Ratio)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1953 ....
...
0.028
0.118
0.147
0.163
...
0.029
0.135
0.143
0.182
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959
0.051
0.050
0.090
0.091
0.038
0.043
1960 ....
1961
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 -..
0.059
0.035
0.055
0.054
0.059
0.076
1952....
1965.-..
...
0.031
0.140
0.148
0.181
...
0.034
0.150
0.151
0.167
...
0.038
0.158
0.145
0.177
0.046
0.056
0.090
0.093
0.033
0.045
0.041
0.059
0.085
0.094
0.030
0.051
0.038
0.058
0.089
0.087
0.028
0.055
0.063
0.034
0.059
0.053
0.060
0.072
0.055
0.035
0.059
0.054
0.059
0.077
0.055
0.034
0.061
0.054
0.060
0.078
...
0.043
0.144
0.142
0.170
...
0.059
0..151
0.138
0.157
...
0.085
0.146
0.136
0.144
...
0.080
0.139
0.161
0.036
0.068
0.084
0.080
0.028
0.059
0.039
0.068
0.085
0.075
0.029
0.060
0.040
0.075
0.081
0.074
0.030
0.058
0.036
0.077
0.090
0.071
0.031
0.058
0.054
0.034
0.062
0.051
0.064
0.084
0.049
0.037
0.060
0.055
0.061
0.081
0.047
0.038
0.060
0.054
0.064
0.085 .
0.045
0.041
0.056
0.056
0.064
0.096
...
0.122
0.088
0.130
0.175
0.100
0.180
0.084
0.025
O.OS7
0.147
0.184
0.060
0.034
0.082
0.095
0.064
0.030
0.056
0.037
0.081
0.103
0.057
0.035
0.053
0.044
0.083
0.088
0.047
0.040
0.052
0.049
0.084
0.091
0.042
0.041
0.057
0.043
0.043
0.056
0.055
0.067
0.104
0.045
0.058
0.054
0.068
0.111
0.040
0.039
0.049
0.051
0.053
0.074
0.118
0.038
0.052
0.053
0.055
0.071
0.126
0.127
(July 1967)
78
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented when available. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current
data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing to consumer prices (l957-59:::100)
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
73.4
77.9
80.8
81.7
82.5
86.9
73.8
78.1
80.4
80.3
83.2
87.7
74.6
78.6
80.7
81.0
84.1
88.3
73.7
78.4
81.1
81.5
83.7
88.1
73.8
78.6
81.3
81.6
83.7
88.1
74.4
78.5
81.5
82.3
83.6
88.4
74.1
79.2
81.4
82.4
82.8
89.0
75.6
79.2
81.5
82.6
84.3
89.1
76.0
79.1
81.1
82.6
85.4
88.4
76.9
79.0
81.8
82.3
85.9
89.0
77.1
78.6
82.2
82.6
85.9
89.0
77.8
79.4
82.5
82.6
86.4
89.3
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
89.5
92.1
96.4
98.9
98.5
101.5
89 ..1
92.3
96.2
98.8
98.7
101.9
89.3
92.3
97.1
99.1
97.8
102.7
89.4
93.4
97.9
98.7
98.1
103.0
89.9
94.0
97.5
98.6
98.3
103.0
90.1
93.7
97.7
98.8
98.7
103.1
89.8
94.7
96.7
99.1
98.9
103.2
90. D
95.0
98.2
99.1
99.7
101.7
90.5
95.4
98.5
99.1
100.0
102.1
90.9
95.5
98.7
99.3
99.6
101.4
91.2
96.0
98.6
99.3
100.8
101.9
91.7
95.8
98.9
98.9
101.4
103.2
1960 ....
1961....
1962 ....
1963 . . . .
1964 ....
1965 ....
104.3
104.5
103.9
107.2
108.6
110. 1
112.6
104.3
104.1
107.1
108.7
110.4
112.4
103.3
104.6
107.4
108.7
110.6
112.4
103.9
105.2
107.4
109.0
110.8
112.6
103.7
105.6
107.4
109.3
110.9
104.2
105.8
107.3
109.3
111.0
112.8
104.3
106.1
107.5
108.7
111.5
112.7
104.5
105.4
107.0
109.5
112.0
113.2
104.3
106.5
107.7
109.6
110.3
113.2
103.7
107.0
107.8
109.9
111.2
113.5
103.8
106.9
108.3
109.9
111.7
113.0
...
...
...
104.0
107.4
108.2
110.1
111.7
112.4
857. Vacancy rate in private rental housing (Percent)
1948 ....
1949 . . . .
1950 ....
1951....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 . . . .
1956 . . . .
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
,..
...
5.7
4.9
5.8
6.1
.. .
...
...
...
•.
...
7.2
8.0
7.7
7.2
7.3
7.7
...
...
...
.. .
. ,,
.
...
5.3
4.8
5.9
6.6
...
7.2
8.0
7.4
7.5
7.5
7.6
.. .
...
...
...
...
.. .
.. *
...
...
...
5.7
5.1
5.7
6.6
...
...
...
...
...
7.6
7.9
7.3
7.6
7.7
7.2
. ..
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
*..
...
5.4
5.4
6.1
6.5
7.7
7.8
7.4
7.5
7.4
7.6
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
.**
(July 1967)
79
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Appendixes
Tables
Charts
Timing
classification
Page
Issue
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
*L
*30.
2.
5.
3.
301.
46.
Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg.
Nonagricultural placements, all indus.
Accession rate, manufacturing
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Nonagri. job openings unfilled
Help-wanted advertising
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...
9
9
9
9
9
17
17
511.
*41.
42.
*43.
45.
40.
*502.
Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
Employees in nonagri. establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C
C ...
Lg...
17
17
17
18
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C
C ...
C ...
C ...
18
18
18
19
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
L.
C.
C.
Lg.
Lg-
11
11
.11
20
20
22
22
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
Lg...
Lg...
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
22
22
.-
62
64
65
is
22
31
31
31
31
31
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
39
68-9
68-9
70
70
70
68-9
71
68-9
71
68-9
72
66
72
66
72
76
66
Sept. '66
Oct. '631
Sept. >66
July '631
Sept. '66
Apr. '67
Feb. '641
77
72
72
72
66
72
76
Apr. '67
Sept. '66
Feb. '67
Feb. '67
Mar. '641
Feb. '67
Apr. '67
73
73
70
74
74
77
74
72
July
July
Sept.
July
July
Apr.
July
Apr.
74
66
78
June '65
Aug. '631
June '67
78
68
66
May '67
Nov. '64
Dec. '63'1
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
49.
*50.
*47.
*52.
53.
*816.
57.
*54.
GNP in current dollars ..
GNP in 1958 dollars
Industrial production
Personal income
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., constr.
Manufacturing and trade sales
Final sales
Sales of retail stores
19
19
19
64
64
64
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
68-9
68-9
68-9
71
71
71
71
68-9
71
68-9
71
'67
'67
'64
'67
'67
'67
'67
'66
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
*38.
13.
*6.
94.
*10.
11.
24.
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts, value
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
New capital appropriations, mfg
New orders, mach. and equip, industries
9.
7.
*29.
96.
97.
*61.
505.
Construction contracts, comm. and indus
Private nonfarm housing starts
New building permits, private housing
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg
Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip
Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend
62
62
65
31
31
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
38
38
39
39
68-9
70
68-9
78
74
74
66
68
65
76
68-9
68-9
May
July
June
June
Nov.
June
Apr.
'67
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
'67
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
21.
*31.
37.
20.
26.
32.
25.
*71.
65.
Change in business inventories
Change, mfg. and trade inventories
Purchased materials, higher inventories
Change, mtls. and supplies inventories
Buying policy, production materials
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*)are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
NOTE:
Appendix C has been omitted from this issue.
80
62
66
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
39
39
|_ = leading C-roughly coincident, Lg- lagging,
68-9.
70
68-9
i Appendix G in this issue.
72
72
68
64
65
66
66
73
72
July '67
Nov. '66
June '631
June '64
June '64
Mar. '6411
Dec. '63
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Charts
Timing
classification
Tables
Appendixes
Issue
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
*23.
*19.
*16.
22.
18.
*17.
55.
58.
68.
*62.
81.
Industrial materials prices
,.,
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Corporate profits after taxes
Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate.
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
;,,
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Wholesale price index, industrial commodities.
Wholesale price index, manufactured goods
Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfin. corporations
Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Consumer prices
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...
Lg...
Lg...
U ...
13
13
14
14
.14
14
20
20
23
23
24
Change, money supply and time deposits —
Change, total U.S. money supply
Change, mortgage debt
Change, consumer installment debt
Change, business loans 22
Total private borrowing
Liabilities of business failures
Delinquency rate, instal. loans, 30 days and over
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L «• -
15
15
15
15
15
16
ie
16
Free reserves
Treasury bill rate 2 2
Corporate bond yields2
Treasury bond yields
Municipal bond yields 2
Consumer installment debt
Comm. and indus. loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Mortgage yields, residential 2
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
Lg...
Lg...
Lg...[
Lg...
21
21
21
21
21
23
23
23
23
U ...
U ...
U ..;
U ...
U ...
U ...
U ...
24
24
24
25
25
25
25
U ...
U ...
U ...
U ...
U ...
U.-U *- •
U--U ...
26
26
26
26
27
27
27
27
27
U ...
U ...
U. .
U. .
U. .
U. .
U. .
U ...
28
28
28
28
29
29
29
29
63
63
63
65
66
34
34
34
34
34
34
38
38
40
40
41
68-9
68-9
68-9
70
68-9
68-9
66
66
72
73
71
72
73
72
75
75
73
Jan. '641
Apr. '641
July '67
July '67
Apr. '67
July '67
Feb. '67
Apr. '67
July '67
July '67
Feb. '67
73
72
71
71
75
73
66
71
Nov. '66
Nov. '66
Apr. '67
July '64
Apr. '67
Feb. '67
Nov. '631
Apr. '67
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
98.
85.
33.
*113.
112.
110.
14.
39.
93.
114.
116.
115.
117.
66.
*72.
*67.
118.
VII.
66
63
65
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
38
38
38
38
38
40
40
40
40
70
68-9
70
70
70
68-9
68-9
66
71
72
72
72
70
73
70
72
Oct.
July
Aug.
July
July
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
July
'64
'64
'66
'64
'64
'64
'67
'64
'64
79
79
74
73
77
78
74
June
June
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
70
76
79
78
78
76
70
70
66
75
July
June
June
June
July
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
July
'67
'67
'67
'67
67
'64
'64
'64
'67
70
70
77
77
77
78
78
78
79
79
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
70
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
88. Merchandise trade balance
86. Exports, excluding military aid
861, Export orders, durable goods, except motor vehicles....
862. Export orders, nonelectric machinery
87. General imports
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
70
VII). FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95.
84.
83.
82.
101.
91.
90.
99.
92.
Fed. balance, nat'l. income and prod, account
Federal cash surpjus or deficit
Federal cash receipts from public
Federal cash payments to public
National defense purchases, current dollars
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S
850.
851.
852.
853.
854.
855.
856.
857.
Ratio, output to capacity, mfg
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments durable goods
Ratio, prod, of bus. equipment to consumer goods
Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income ..
Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to unemployed....
Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
Vacancy rate in private rental housing
66
42
42
42
42
42
42
42
42
42
7C
70
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*)areon the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
L=leading, c=roughly coincident, Lg=lagging, U= unclassified ("other selected U.S. series," "U.S. series under consideration" and "international comparisions"). -1 Appendix G in this issue. 2 A description of this series is contained in the July 1964 issue of BCD {appendix G).
IJOTE:
Appendix C has been omitted from this issue.
81
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Timing
classification
Series titles by economic process and other grouping
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
F
1
2
3
1
2
4
5
B
D
C
E
Page
Issue
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
122.
121.
125.
128.
126
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
production
production
production
production
production
ij
U..
United Kingdom
OECD-Europe
West Germany
Japan
France
u
U. ..
u
U. .
U
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
-
76
67
75
67
68
75
68
July '67
'64
'67
'64
'64
'67
'64
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl.
06.
Dll.
D34.
019.
023.
05:
Average workweek
New orders
Capital appropriations
Profits, mfg
Stock prices
Industrial materials prices
Initial claims
041
047.
058.
054
035.
036.
048.
061.
Employees in nonagri establishments
Industrial production
Wholesale prices, mfg
Retail sales
Net sales mfrs
New orders
Freight carloadings
New plant and equipment .expenditures
'
47
47
47
47
47
47
47
,
48
43
48
48
49
49
49
49
-
^unclassified ("other selected U.S. series," 'U.S. series under consideration," and "international comparisons").
NOTE:
Appendix C has been omitted from this issue.
82
50
50
50
51
51
51
51
52
52
52
52
53
53
53
53
54
54
70
55
56
56
57
57
58
59
-
73
72
73
69
72
72
73
Sept. '66
(
Apr, 65
Feb. '65
Oct. '64
Apr, '65
Apr. '65
May <65
73
73
78
73
70
70
68-9
69
Sept. '66
Apr. '65
Apr. '67
Apr. '65
Nov. '64
Nov. '64
Nov. '64
Nov. '64
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
"M" indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series.
Data apply to the whole period except for series designated
by "EOM" (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in
which a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus,
"(M, II)" indicates a monthly series classified in group It.
The general classification follows the approach of the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The series preceded by
asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of
25 indicators.
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, tabor force survey (M,l).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
*43. Unemployment ratio, total (M,l).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,llt).--Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (IVi,IV)."Department of Comtierce, Bureau of
the Census
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M,IV).-National Association
of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
36 Leading Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing
(M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M,I).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,l).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space(M,III).«F.W. Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,IH),-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F.W.
Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M,III).--Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing, and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, and Bureau of the -Census
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
(M,IV.)..--Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M,VI)>|nstitute of Life
Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association, National
Association of Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and
Loan League, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,VI).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M,1II).-F.W.
Dodge Corporation
;
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M,VI).~
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices 110.
of manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally
adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages,
salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit
of output (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Busi- 112.
ness Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
*113.
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q,V).--Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
*50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,ll).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*52. Personal income (M,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M,ll).~Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M.ll).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,V).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M,V).«
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
96.Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM,lll).«Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q,IV).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll),--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*38. Index of net business formation (M, 111).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the'Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
13. Number of new business incorporations (M,lll).--Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of
materials and supplies (M,IV).»Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*47. Index of industrial production (M,II).«Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System; no seasonal adjustment
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q,III).-National Industrial Conference Board;
component industries are seasonally adjusted and added
to obtain seasonally adjusted total
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,V).-Standard
and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,l).»
National Industrial Conference Board
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials
(NI,IV).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days
and over (EOM.VI).-American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc."° (Bimonthly since
December 1964)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ,III).»
National Industrial Conference Board; component industries
are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,VI).»Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M,Vl).»
First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M.VI).--The
Bond Buyer; no seasonal adjustment
Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOMJ).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Net change in bank loans to businesses (M,VI).--Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
>•
511. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments, all industries (M,l).»
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales (M,I1).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the
Census
11 Lagging Indicators
25 Roughly Coincident Indicators
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M,l).»
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
(M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total
(Q,III).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
POSTAGE AND FEES P A I D
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
U.S.
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, o.c. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Continued
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing; (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
all ^manufacturing industries (EOM,IV).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87)
(M.VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q,VII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M,VIII).«
Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted
net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous
rtiqpth to obtain current figure
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M,VIII).-Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, no
seasonal adjustment
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions {M,VIII).-Department of Defense, Directorate
for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations (ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,V).~Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, National Income Division
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total
(E0M,IVV-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics and Bureau of the Census
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting targe commercial banks (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages(M,VI).-Federal
Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (MJ).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
505. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M, 111).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
16 Other Selected U.S. Series
81. Index of consumer prices (M,V).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
82. Federal cash payments to the public (Q.VIII).--Treasury
Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Q,VIIII).--Treasury
Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of
the-President, Bureau of the Budget
.iv-"'
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Q,VHI).»Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the
President, Bureau of the Budget
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M,VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M,VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
95. Federal surplus or delicti, national income and product
account (Q,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
99. New orders, defense products (M,VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
101. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense
(Q,Vlll).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M,VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; no seasonal adjustment
862. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M,V|I).--*
McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in
manufacturing to consumer prices (BCD series 81) (M).«
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
857. Vacancy rate in private rental housing-unoccupied rental
housing units as a percent of total rental housing (Q).U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
7 International Comparisons
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M,IX).»
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M,IX).»
Central Statistical Office (London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M,IX).-Dominion
Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M,IX).»
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonally adjusted
by OECD
126. France, index of industrial production (M,IX).--lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M,IX).-lstituto Centrale
•di Statistica (Rome)
128.' Japan, index of industrial production (MTIX).-Ministry of
:
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
.:. United States, index of industrial production (M,il).--See
series 47
8 U.S. Series
Under Consideration
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. (Q).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System,U.S. Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
851. Ratio, inventories (BCD series 71), to sales (BCD series
816), manufacturing and trade total (M).-U.S. Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Diffusion Indexes
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (BCD series 96) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (M).-U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series
bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources.
See sources above for Dl, 05, 06, Oil, D19, D23, D41, 047,
D54, D58, and D61. Sources for other diffusion indexes are
as follows:
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (index: 1957-59 = 100) (Wl).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon
components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNC8 (Q).--First National City
Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable personal income (Q).U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings, unfilled (BCD series
301) to number of persons unemployed (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment
@FedFRASER