Full text of Business Conditions Digest : January 1987

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BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
JANUARY 1987







U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Robert Ortner, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Mary D. Young—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of .theJFederal Reserve System
Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.

concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.

BCII




PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES

Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
_A6_
A7
A8

NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income

Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

48
49

84
87

51

89

. 52
53

90
90

56
57

92
93

58
59
59

94
95
96

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Bl
B2

Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
B. Current Adjustment Factors (December 1986 issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (October 1986 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

97
104
105
110
114

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

ItCII

in

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6

JANUARY 1 9 8 7
Data Through December
Volume 27, Number 1

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Al
A2
A3
A4

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

Chart
10
12
14
15

Table
60
—
—
—

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

36
—
39

74
77
—

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Cl
C2
C3

Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds




for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office of Management
and Budget through September 30, 1987.

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
Changes in this issue are as follows:

revisions made by

1. The Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to make a
change in the calculation of the composite index of leading
indicators (series 910) effective with the publication of the
February index in the March 1987 issue of BCD. At that time,
the series on net business formation (series 12) will be suspended from the index. This suspension is necessary because
this series has deteriorated as a measure of change in the
business population, primarily because of the poor quality of
one component of the series and the unavailability of data of
another component in time for inclusion in the initial release. If net business formation had been excluded from the
index now, the index would have increased 2.4 percent in December, 1.2 percent in November, and 0.8 percent in October.
The composite index of capital investment commitments (series
914), of which net business formation also is a component,
will be discontinued in the March issue.
2. The series on employment and unemployment in the
civilian labor force (series 37, 42-44, 90, 91, 441, 442,
444-448, and 451-453) have been revised by the source agency
for the period 1982 to date. These revisions reflect the
application of updated seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics,
Division of Employment and Unemployment Analysis.
3. Appendix C contains historical data for series 25,
31, 38, 39, 65, 78, 93, 94, 96, 104, 109, 548, 910, 920, and
930.
4. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series
1, 30, 47, and 50.
The February issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on March 9.




H
I

source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.

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METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1962, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1950, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1975.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.

Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday




adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed
as a result of revisions in important economic
time series. The dates shown in this publication
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conformity to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.)
The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
N.
\ .

Economic
Process

Cyclical^
Timing
N^^

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(61 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(24 series)

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
( 9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments "
(3 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Orders and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (5 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(6 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)

Business investment
expenditures
(1 series)

Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)

Comprehensive
employment

Consumption and
trade (1 series)

Velocity of money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

(3 series)

Unit labor costs
and iabor share
(4 series)

Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices ( 1 series)
Profits and profit
margins ( 1 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs

Cyclical ^ \
Timing
N^^

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)

\ v ^ Economic
\ ^ Process

Industrial
production
( I series)

Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
( I series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
margins (6 series)
Cash flows ( 2 series)

Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Consumption and
trade (3 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

Profits and profit
margins ( 2 series)

Money ( 1 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(7 series)

Unit labor costs
and iabor share

Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
( 1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
vl\v
• I lyivn 1

/41 cpripc^

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)




lob vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

(4 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident




indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.

Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 112 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national product—personal consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.




Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services
(A4) is the compensation of government employees
and purchases from business and from abroad. It
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
of the national production; imports are not, but are
included in the components of GNP and are
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
international transactions is provided in section E.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
originate in the production of goods and services
attributable to labor and property supplied by
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
and expenditures during an accounting period.
Total gross saving includes personal saving,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and
government surplus or deficit.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
major expenditure components of GNP
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of GNP, and the major income
components of national income (compensation of
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of national income.

Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1975.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.

Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D. Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense
Indicators.
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1975) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1975) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Basic Data

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ( " 9 " = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman
number
indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ( " I V " = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

mmDiffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L - 1 " is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Roman
number
indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Rates of Change
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3- or 4-quarter spans.

Roman
number
indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

JWmW

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r -




2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Percent change
Series title and timing classification1

Annual average
2dQ
1986

1985

3d Q

4th Q

Oct.
to
Nov.
1986

Oct.
1986

Nov.
to
Dec.
1986

2d Q
to
3dQ
1986

3d Q
to
4th Q
1986

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al. Composite Indexes
910.
920.
930.
940.

Twelve leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

L,L,I—
CCC...
Lg,Lg,Lg....
L,L,L-•••
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L

Leading Indicator Subgroups:
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917. Money and financial flows

967 = 100...

.do.
.do.

do
do
do

169.1
160.3
127.0
126.3

178.7
164.5
132.3
124.3

178.0
164.5
131 . 7
124.9

179.3
164.7
131 . 8
124.9

183 .0
165.6
133.7
123.9

180 .6
164.9
133.3
123 .7

182.2
165.3
133 .5
123.8

186 .1
166 .6
134.2
124.1

0.9
0 .2
0.2
0 .1

110.3
102.0
115.2
138.8

109.9
103.2
NA
144.4

110 .2
103.1
120.0
142.0

109.8
102.5
119.9
146 .0

109.6
103 .7
NA
148.8

109.0
102 .6
118.1
147 .9

109.2
103.5
118.0
147 . 4

110.5
104.9
NA
151 .0

0.2
0.9
-0.1
-0.3

2.1
0.8
0.5
0.2

1 .2
1 .4
NA
2 .4

0 .7
0 .1
0.1
0.

2.1
0 .5
1 .4
-0.8

-0.4
-0.6
-0.1
2.8

-0.2
1 .2
NA
1 .9

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average weekly hours, mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3
*5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted4)

L,L,L.... Hours
do
L.C.L....
L,C,I— "housands...

40.7
3.5
370

40.7
3.4
377

40.7
3.5
373

40 .8
3.5
347

40 .7
3.5
343

40.8
3.5
342

40.9
3.6
3 56

0.2
0.
0.3

0.2
0.1
-4.1

0.
0.1
1 .1

0.2
0.
7 .0

L,Lg,U.... Ratio..
L,Lg,U.... .967 = 100....

Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers

40.5
3.3
383
0.497
139

0.502
139

0.475
134

0.495
136

0.528
144

0.510
141

0.530
147

0.543
145

0.020
4.3

0.013
-1.4

0.020
1 .5

0.033
5.9

182.30
103.97
97 . 6 1
24,930

187.41
107 .03
100.83
24,865

188.51
107 .22
101 .06
24,895

188.52
107 .48
101 .33
24,932

0.4
0 .7
0 .5
-0.3

0.9
0.3
0.8
0.1

0.22

Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments....
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
•41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
40. Employees in goods-producing industries
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age3

... C C C .
... L.C.U..

.r., bil. hrs...
Millions
do
housands

.. U,Lg,U..

Percent

59.38

59.95

59.85

60.07

60.13

60.07

60.14

60.19

Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted4)
43. Unemployment rate (inverted4)3
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.4)3.
•91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted4)
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3

... L,Lg,U....
... L,Lg,U....
... L,Lg,U....
.. Lg.Lg.Lg....
. Lg.Lg.Lg....

housands...
'ercent
do
Weeks

8,312
7 .2
2.8
15.6
2.0

8,237
7 .0
2.8
15.0
1 .9

8,379
7.1
2.8
14.9
1.9

3,191
6.9
2.8
15.4
1 .9

8,138
6.8
2.7
15.0
1.8

8,222
6.9
2.7
15.2
1 .8

8,243
6 .9
2.7
14.8
1.9

7,949
6.7
2.6
15.0
1 .8

. U.C.C.

.. u,c,c.

Percent

1 8 6 . 4 4 185.68 1 8 6 . 5 0 188.15
1 0 6 . 4 3 106 .08 1 0 6 . 8 7 107 .24
100.17
99.85 1 0 0 . 3 2 101.08
2 4 , 9 4 0 24,952 2 4 , 8 7 2 24,897

-0.3
0.
0.
2.6
-0.1

3.6
0.2
0.1
-1.4
0 .1

2.2
0 .2
0.
-3 .4
0 .

0.

0.6

0.06

0.6
0.1
0 .1
2.6
0.1

0.7
-0.4

B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
.. C C C . A.r., bil. dol..
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
...do
. CCC.
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars
•51. Personal income less transfer payments
do
.... CCC...
in 1982 dollars..
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
do
.... CCC...
and construction
Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars

L.C.U..
L,C,U..

3 6 7 6 . 5 3661 .4 3686 . 4 3702 .4
30 5 2 . 8 3071 .7 3 0 5 8 . 5 3062.8 3057 .2 3056.0 3075.1

2527 . 4

2603.0

0.2

0.

0 .7

-0.6

542.0

544.3

540.3

541 .5

-0.7

0.2

-0.5

125.0
124.4
126 .0
127 .1 127 .7
128.8
131 . 8
133.1
130.2
1562.8 1 5 6 8 . 0 1581 .6

125 .3
128.2
132.3

126 .0
128.7
133 .1

126 .6
129.6
133.8

0 .6
0.4
0 .6

0.5
0.7
0 .5

79.7
77 .9

79.9
78.5

80 .3
78.6

0.2
0.6

0.4
0 .1

103.03 106 .26 107 .42 103.57
99.12
95.63 100.39 101.34
96.05
98.69

5.1
5.0

0 .9
0.9

3 .1
2.7

0 .4

91 .98
86.76
87 .41 85.90
84.60
85.44
88.43
86.15
2.16
-2.01
-1.90
0.63
0.06
1 . 2 1 -1 .24 -3.87
Bil. dol., EOP ... 353 . 0 4 3 5 3 . 7 7 353.87 357 . 5 0 353.77 353.62 355.78 353.77
56
54
56
52
55
Percent
45
52
52

-1 .7
6.03
0.6
2

7 .1
- 4 . 17
-0.6
0

0.8
3.11
1 .0
0

2.6
-2.45
-1.0
3

Bil. dol
....do..

0.3
0.4
0.7
-0.6
-0.

NA
NA
0 .9
4.4
4.0

NA
NA
0.9
-0.2
-0.9
-6.7
-3

C C C . 1977 = 100
do....
C,C,C.
do....
C,L,L..
C C C . A.r., bil. dol

Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3

3585.2
2 96 2 . 8

Percent
...do...

538.0

541 . 4

125.1
123 .8
128.0
127 . 3
130.9
125.1
1533.2 1569.0
80.1
80.2

79.8
78.5

2621 .9 2 6 0 5 . 2
542.5

79.5
78.3

539.8

79.7
78.1

2610 .6 2605.0 2604.2 2622.6

80.0
78.3

0
0.9
1 .0
0.9

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 (u)
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment ( u )

L,L,L..
L.L.L..
L,L,L..
L,L,L..
L,Lg,U..
L,L,L..

104.30 105.88
98.46
97 . 9 3
do
...do

C,C,C.
CCC.
C,L,C.
C.L.U..
U.L.U..
L,C,C.
L,L,L..

....do
A.r., bil. dol
I Q 1966=100

424.04
NA
40 6 . 2 7
NA
120.2
124.4
114.50 1 2 0 . 4 5
1 0 6 . 9 3 112 . 3 5
124.3
115.3
94.8
93.2

L,L,L
L.L.L.

1967 = 100....
Number

121 .2
55,480

1977 = 100

Bil. dol

425.18
416.32
124.4
118.45
111 .50
115.2
96.8

433.00
NA 435.85
424.75
NA 424.51
124.9
124.8
125.9
123 .22 122.95 121 .66
115.00 113.98 113 .06
130.7
140.1
95.6
92 .0
94.8

NA
437 .14
NA
426.40
125 .8 126 .9
120.94 126.26
112.19 116.69
91 .4

89.1

-4.4

-2.5

1 .8
2 .0
0
4.0
3 .1
21.6
-2.1

118.9
NA

118.0
NA

-1 .0
NA

-0.8
NA

-0.1
-2.1

34.27
28.44

35.98
30 .01

6.1
5.7

5.0
5.5

B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Net business formation
13. New business incorporations...
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods




L,L,L.
L.L.L.
L.L.L.
L,L,L.

120.2
NA

120.7
120.8
5 8 , 1 4 7 56 , 9 1 5

32.70
27.19

120.1
NA

33.11
32.44
27 . 1 2

31 . 5 1
26 . 2 5

34.19
28.45

32.31
26.91

29.49

30.07

28.35

3.5

31 . 3 9

33.14
27 . 3 1

32.09
do
do

119.0
NA

5 .3

5.
4.0

3 .2
4.2

5.9

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Series title and timing classification

1

Percen change

Annual verage
1985

2dQ
1986

1986

3dQ
1986

4th Q
1986

Oct.
to
Nov.
1986

Dec.
1986

Nov.
1986

Nov.
to
Dec.
1986

2dQ
to
3d Q
1986

-8.3

- 1 .6
1 .1
-5 .4

1 .1
NA
NA

-0 .4

Oct.
1986

5 .3

0.5
0 .8
-0 .5

NA
0.3
-0 .7

-8.4
-7 .9
2.3

-4.3
1 .0
1 .1

3d Q
to
4th Q
1986

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.

Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
L,C,U..
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
U,Lg,U..
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5
C,Lg,Lg..
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment
69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

86 . 4 2
27 . 2 2
94.58

77.03
NA
NA

78.95
19.99
85.77

77 . 6 7
20.21
81.12

C,Lg,Lg.. A.r., bil. dol

387 . 13 380 . 6 9 3 7 5 . 9 2

374.55

C,Lg,Lg..
C,Lg,U..
C,Lg,C.

401.80
139.6
461 .4

Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

Mil. sq. ft
Bil. dol
dol., EOP ...

do
1977 = 100
A.r., bil. dol

NA 3 9 6 . 6 6 3 9 8 . 7 3
138.8
137.7
138.8
455.0
456 .8 454.4

1,742
138.1
177.2

1,80 6
140 . 2
193 . 9

1 ,908
145.3
192 .7

1 ,747
133 .8
197 .2

L,L,L...

9.0

10 . 8

15.1

-0 .3

L,L,L...
L,L,L...

2.99
9.7

NA
NA

12.95
2.9

-7.30
-3 .4

--0 . 3 1

NA

-1 .33

0.42

L,L,L.
L,L,L.
L,L,L.

A.r., thousands..
1967 = 100.
A.r., bil. dol.

71 . 7 7

85.41

78.29

19.0

NA 4 0 2 . 0 1
139.2
139.2
451 .0

400 .29
139.2

NA
139.3

-0.4
0.

1 ,585
128.6

1 ,80 2
152.3

-2.6
3.0

78.49
NA
NA
394.34

1 ,672
135.2
199 .3

1 ,628

124.8

NA
0.1

13.7
18.4

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
*36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (smoothed6)3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value3
38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order, book value3
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value5
*77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars3
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order, book value5

L,L,I

do
do
Bil. dol

L,Lg,Lg....

NA - 1 3 . 5 9 -10 .88
NA
41 .8 -11 .4

NA - 2 0 . 2 5
NA
-6.3

-11.2

NA
NA

2.71
-53.2

NA

1 .17

NA

1 .75

NA

NA
NA
NA

-0.2
0.
1 .5

NA
NA
NA

-0.1
-0.4
-1 .4

NA
NA
NA

NA

-0.01

NA

-0.03

NA

NA

0.2

NA

0.6

NA

-0.10
247 . 5
1.85

-0.67
3.5
1 .17

-0.81
-0.8
0.10

1 .03
9.9
1 .18

186.84 2 3 6 . 3 4 240 .58 241 .15 243.69 237 .36 245.09 2 4 8 . 6 1

3.3

0.2

1 .1

Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP . 583.15
638.43
Lg,Lg,Lg....
....do
88.37
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio

-15.4

-11.5

1 .56

dol., EOP . 214.24

NA 588.91 588.07
NA 646.28 643.48
NA 86 .71 85.52
NA

1.55

1.52

NA 210 .31 211 .57

NA

-0.82

0.35

NA 591 .56 5 90 .61
NA 644.78 644.67
86.74
NA 85.45
NA

1 .52

1 .51

NA 210 .76 211 .10

NA
NA

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3

L,L,L... Percent...
U,L,L... 1967 = 100...
L,L,I Percent

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common s t o c k s ©

L,L,I

Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
in 1982 dollars
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business

L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol..
L,L,I
....do
L,C,L...
do
L,C,L...
do
L,L,L... Cents
L,L,I 1977 = 100...

131 .4
123 . 1
188.9
181 .0
3 .8
98.8

133.8
N
A
NA
NA
NA
98 . 7

128.8
118.3
1 94.2
183.6
4.3
98 .8

135.9
124.3
197 .6
185.3
3 .4
99.0

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
97 . 9

5.5
5.1
1 .8
0.9
-0.9
0 .2

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-1 .1

Cash Flows:
34. Corporate net cash flow
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars

L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol..
L,L,L...
....do

376.0
374.9

NA
NA

374.9
374.1

384.3
383 .8

NA
NA

2.5
2 .6

NA
NA
1 .2

1941-43 = 10.

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100...
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfinancial corporations
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Actual data
Lg,Lg,Lg... 1977 = 100...
*b) Actual data as percent of trend3
Lg,Lg,Lg... Percent
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income3
Lg,Lg,Lg....

-0.22
244.8
-0.42

0 .31
228.9
0.14

0.67
222.1
-0.19

-0.14
220.3
-0.09

0.89
242.2

1 .09

1 .72
235.5
0.13

1.05
243 .7
1.30

-1.15
1.6
0.55
1 .4

164.8

168.9

168.0

16 9.3

17 1 . 3

0.8

0.708

0 . 7 25

0.7 24

0 727

NA

0 4

138.0
85.4

138.5
81 . 1

138.7
81 .8

138.0
80.2

73 .5

NA

73.5

73.8

138.4
79.3

139.4
80 .2

138.0
79.1

137.7
78.5

-1 .0
-1 .1

-0.2
-0.6

-0.5
-1.6

NA
0.3
-0.9

0 .3

NA

NA

-0.16
-0.13
0.05
3 .7
2.1

0.46
-0.10
NA
3.6
1.6

B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply Ml 3
102. Change in money supply M23
104. Change in total liquid assets3
105. Money supply M l in 1982 dollars
*106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars

L,L,L.
L,C,U
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L

Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml 3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23

C,C,C... Ratio
C,Lg,C...
do..

Credit
33.
112.
113.
*111.
110.

Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt3
Net change in business loans3
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers

Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted4)3 5




.do.
do.
do
I dol

L,L,I A.r., bil. dol...
L,L,L...
do
L,L,L...
do
L,L,L... A.r., percent..
L,L,I A.r., bil. dol...
L,Ltl

Percent, EOP

0.96
1.46
1 .29
1 .30
1 .76
1 .15
2.37
1 .75
0.65
1 .00
0.74
0.87
0.77
0.89
0.83
0.59
0.67
0.70
NA
0.72
NA
0.56
NA
0.73
532.9 5 9 2 . 2 582.3 603.6 6 2 5 . 1 614.7 623.7 637 . 0
2229.7 2 3 6 2 . 9 2345.7 2395.9 2 4 3 3 . 7 2423.9 2431 .5 2 4 4 5 . 7
6.736
1 .334
77 .64
22.76
81 .52
10 .4
647.34
2.32

6.268
1.300

6.354
1.316

6.185
1.286

NA
N
A
N
A
10 . 6 1 - 1 6 . 4 8
13.10
NA 66.85
66.73
7 .1
4.9
6 .1
NA 571 .30 634.69
NA

2.53

2.24

5.970
1 .270

0.60
-0.30
0 .17
1 .5
0.3

0.62
0.24
NA
2.1
0.6

-0.169 - 0 . 2 1 5
-0.030 - 0 . 0 1 6

1 .273

1 .268

1 . 2 6 8 -0 .005

0.

NA
53 . 8 5
NA
10 . 7
NA

N
A
36.32
86 .50
10.1

N
A
30.66
48.22
6 .4

NA
N
A
94.58
-5.66
NA - 3 8 . 2 8
15.5
-3.7

NA
63.92
NA
9.1

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA
29.58
-0.12
1 .2
11.1
0.29

NA
40 .7 5
NA
4.6
NA
NA

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Unit
of
measure

Series title and timing classification1

2d Q

3d Q
1986

Percent change

4th Q
1986

Oct.
to
Nov.
1986

Oct.
1986

Dec.
1986

-321
-89

-316
75

0.19
0.17
-0.30
-0.23
-0.23
-0.54

0.87
0.14
-0.12
-0.14
0.01
-0.05

2dQ
to
3d Q

3d Q
4th Q
1986

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
B7. Money and Credit-Con.

Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 3 ©
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 ©
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate3 ©
114. Discount rate on new Treasury b i l l s 3 ©
116. Yield on new high-grade corporate b o n d s 3 ©
115. Yield on long-term Treasury b o n d s 3 ©
117. Yield on municipal bonds3 ©
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term business l o a n s 3 ©
*109. Average prime rate charged by banks 3 ©
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income3

L,U,U.... Mil. doL.
L,Lg,U....

-492
1 ,321

93
836

-1
857

L,Lg,Lg.... Percent
do..
C,Lg,Lg....
do..
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do..
C,Lg,Lg....
do..
UTLg,Lg....
do..
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do..
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do..
Lg,Lg,Lg....

8.10
7 .49
11 . 7 5
10.75
9.10
12.24
9.74
9.93

6.80
5.97
9.23
8.14
7 .32
9.91
8.11
8.33

6.92
6.13
9.06
7.95
7 .54
9.95
8.13
8.61

Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP .
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol
Lg,Lg,Lg....

...do

Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent

-82
874

224
807

-95
841

226
752

542
827

6.21
5.53
9.14
7.89
7 .28
9.90
7 .73
7.85

6.27
5.34
9.05
7.84
6.93
9.42
7 .28
7 .50

5.85
5.18
9.29
8.04
7 .08
9.80

6 .04
5.35

6.91
5.49
8.87
7 .67
6.86
9.21

7 .50

7.50

7.50

535.10
NA 5 6 7 . 6 5 5 8 4 . 3 3
NA
NA 591 . 5 4 595.56
331 . 6 5 342.55 3 3 8 . 2 3 3 3 9 . 9 2 3 4 7 . 7 5 3 4 3 . 4 2 345.98 353.86
321 . 5 2 342.00 3 3 8 . 7 9 3 4 1 . 9 7

348.80

0.

0.

0 .7
0 .7

NA
2 .3

-306
-67

-0.71
-0.60
0 .08
-0.06
-0.26
-0.05
-0 .40
-0.76

0.06
-0.19
-0.09
-0.05

2.9
0 .5

NA
2.3

0.6

2.5

0.9

NA

16.81

16.89

NA

0.08

NA

0.39

115.0
328.9
0 .2
322.0
297 .4
308.4
276.7
304.7
306.8
282 .8

115.3
330.8
0.2
326 . 3
298.4
309.5
280.3
305.4
309.8
285.3

330
0
325.0
298.3
309.3
281.8
304.9
309.2
285.0

330.8
0.3
326 .7
298.7
309.8
281 .9
305.4
310.1
285.4

331 .1
0.2
327 .2
298.1
309.3
277.3
305.9
310.1
285.4

0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.
0.2
0 .3
0.1

0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-1 .6
0.2
0.
0.

168.8

169.3

170.6

170.0

170.9

170.8

0.5

-0.1

0.3

95.3
178.5
99.3
107 . 4
105.7

95.1
179.6
99.3
107 . 3
105.7

95.2
180 . 9
99.3
106.7
105.2

95.1

95.4

95.1

0.3

-0.3

-0.2
0.6
0.
-0.1
0.

0.1
0.7
0.
-0.6
-0.5

0
0
3.6
2.5
-3 7
-6.1
-3 .1

0.5
0.7
-2.2
-0.6
-2.7
-5.5
-2.6

0.4
-0.6
1.0
-2.0
-1 .9
-0.6

0 .1
-0.2
-0.7

0.4

15.02

NA

16.13

16.52

111.5
322.2
O .3
309.8
308.7
323 . 8
306 .1
318.7
300.5
291 . 8

114.5
328.4
0.1
319.7
299.8
312.1
280 .0
307 .6
306 .4
284.8

114.0
326 . 5
0 .1
316 .0
298.8
311 .7
274.0
306 . 5
305.6
283.2

165.2

169.2

94.1
173 .9
98.0
106.4
104.8

95.0
179.1
99.0
107 .1
105.5

3 4 4 . 4 5 346.67 355.28

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
B l . Price Movements

310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
335.
331.
332.
333.
334.

Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) © . .
Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3
Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food
Producer price index (PPI), all commodities ©
PPI, industrial commodities ©
PPI, crude materials for further processing
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods

1982 = 100....
1967 = 100....

Percent
1967 = 100....

do
do
do
do
do
do

1 .9
-0.5
-1 .1
1 .0
-0.6
0.4
-0.1

0.3
0.6
0.
1.3
0.3
0.4
1 .3
0.2
1 .0
0.9

B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
370. Output per hour, business sector
358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector

1977 = 100

...do
do
do
do
do

C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.

Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed, full-time workers

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451. Males 20 years and over3
452. Females 20 years and over3
453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age3....

Millions
....do....
Thousands..
do....
do....
do....
Percent
do....
do....

1 1 5 . 4 6 117 . 8 3 117 . 6 3 1 1 8 . 1 7 1 1 8 . 5 6 118.41 1 1 8 . 6 8 1 1 8 . 5 9
1 0 7 . 1 5 1 0 9 . 6 0 1 0 9 . 2 5 1 0 9 . 9 8 1 1 0 . 4 2 110 .19 1 1 0 . 4 3 110 . 6 4
8,191
8,379
8,237
8,138
8,222 8 , 2 43
7,949
8,312
3,750
3,772
3,751
3,786
3,814 3 , 8 2 0
3,725
3,715
3,006
3,089
3,032
2,945
2,994 2 , 9 7 6
2,865
3,129
1 ,434 1 ,407
1 ,414 1 , 4 4 7
1 ,359
1 ,46 8 1 , 4 5 4 1 , 5 1 8
6,647
6,827
6,708
6,609
6,688 6 , 6 7 3
6,465
6 , 7 93
78.1
54.7
54.5

78.1
55.5
54.7

78.0
55.4
55.1

78.0
55.8
54.7

78.1
55.7
54.4

77 .9
55.8
55.0

78.2
55.8
54.5

78.3
55.6
53 .8

0.2

0
0
-0.5

D. Government Activities
D l . Receipts and Expenditures
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.

Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts.
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit3
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures.

517.
525.
548.
557.
570.
564.

Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs.' new orders, defense products
Industrial production, defense and space equipment..
Employment, defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense .

A.r., bil. dol.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.

-198.0 - 2 0 4 . 0 - 2 3 2 . 2
7 86.8 8 2 6 . 2
813.5
984.9 1 0 3 0 . 2 1 0 4 5 . 7
61 .7
60 . 8
58.9
577 .5 6 1 8 . 8
611.5
515.8
557 .9
552.6

Mil. dol
do
do
Thousands
A.r., bil. dol...

26,883
12,240
8,022
170.6
1 ,544
259.4

Mil. dol
do
do
do
do
do

17 ,772
2,426
3 ,917
28,838
4,180
4,688

34.8
2.4
-1.5
5.1
2.9
2.3

NA
-197 .4
NA
833.1
1030 .5 1 0 4 3 . 0
NA
64.0
NA
629.1
575.5
565.1

NA
NA
1 .2
NA
NA
1 .8

D2. Defense Indicators

1977 = 100...

NA 3 0 , 7 7 6 31 ,078
NA 11 , 7 3 2 14,164
7 , 3 9 4 9,109
8,123
180 .8
178.1
180 . 2
NA 1 , 5 8 9 1 ,608
286.8
278.4
278.4

NA 27,803 31 ,565
NA
NA 7,549
5,001 10,356
6,657
183.6
184.5
184.8
NA 1 ,611 1,615
281.9

NA
NA
4,615
186.2
NA

13.5
NA
107 .1
0.5
0.2

NA
NA
-55.4
0.9
NA

1 .0
20.7
23 .2
1 .5
1 .2
3.0

E. U.S. International Transactions
El. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products..
Imports of automobiles and parts




1 8 , 1 5 4 17 , 6 0 9
1 ,941 2,135
3 ,736 3 , 8 2 9
30,266 30,764
2,381
2,511
5,810
5 ,211

19,328 18,593
2 ,447 2,204
3,932 4,138
30,018 36,187
2,155 2,788
7 ,156
5,7 90

-3 .8
-9.9
5.2
20
29.4
23.6

-3 .0
10.0
2.5
1 .6
-5.2
11 .5

NA
NA
-26 .9
2.2
NA
-1.7

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
Series title

1st Q
3d Q
1985

4th Q
1985

1st Q
1986

2dQ
1986

3d Q

4th Q
1986

to
2d Q

1986

2dQ
to
3d Q
1986

3d Q
to

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667.
668.
669.
622.
618.
620.
651.
652.

Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade3
Merchandise exports, adjusted
Merchandise imports, adjusted
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Income on foreign investment in the United States

-23 .58
90 . 0 3
113.60
-28.13
54.98
83 . 1 0
21 . 5 6
16.87

-25.67
89.62
115.30
-31.11
53.61
84.72
22.50
16.20

A.r., bil. dol..
do
A.r., dollars..
A.r., bil. dol..
do
do
A.r., dollars..

3765.0
3489.9
14,721
3430.7
2670.6
2470.6
10,421

3998.1
3585.2
14,981
3576.2
2828.0
2528.0
10,563

4208.5
3676 . 5
15,222
3665.7
2973.7
2603.7
1 0 , 7 80

4030.5 4087.7
3603.8 3622.3
15,041 15,0 80
3603.1 3627.5
2832.0 2882.2
2524.7 2540 .7
10,537 10,577

4149.2
3655.9
15,188
3616.1
2935.1
2581 .2
10,723

4 1 7 5 . 6 4 2 4 0 .7
3661 . 4 3 6 8 6 . 4
15,179 15,246
3646 . 3 3686 .7
2978.5 2979.9
2625.8 2605.5
10,886 10,776

A.r., bil. dol..
....do
..do..
do
do
do
do
do

2428.2
2246.3
331 .2
318.9
870.1
828.6
1227 .0
1098.7

2600 .5
2324.5
359.3
343 .9
90 5.1
841 .6
1336 .1
1139.0

2762.4
2418.6
388.3
368.9
932.7
872.4
1441 . 3
1177 . 3

2627.1
2342.0
373 .3
357 . 4
907 . 4
843 . 8
1346.4
1140.8

2667 .9
2351 .7
362.0
347 .0
922.6
847.2
1383.2
1157.5

2697 . 9
2372.7
360.8
345.4
929.7
860.6
1407.4
1166.6

2732.0
2408.4
373 .9
357 . 1
928.4
877 . 3
1429.8
1174.0

do
do
do
do
do
do

662.1
652.0
598.0
592 .8
64.1
59.2

661 .1
6 47 .7
650.0
638.6
11 .1
9.0

686.4
659.7
675.1
648.9
11 . 4
10.8

657 . 4
643 . 8
654.3
643.1
3.1
0.7

669.5
653 .2
672.6
658.4
-3.1
-5.2

708.3
684.0
664.4
644.1
43.8
39.9

..do..
..do..
..do..,
..do..
..do..
..do..

733.4
675.2
311 .3
291 .7
422.2
383.5

815.4
721 .2
354.1
323 .6
461.3
397.6

865.3
748.0
367.2
333.4
498.1
414.5

829.7
731 . 8
360.9
329.9
46 8 . 8
401 . 9

855.6
749.4
380.9
347 .2
47 4.7
402 .2

..do..
..do..
..do..
..do..
..do..
..do..

-58.7
-78.9
-83 .6 - 1 0 8 . 2
382.7
369.8
369.7
362.3
441.4
448.6
453 .2
470 . 5

do
do.
do.
do.
do.
.do.
...do..

-24.45 - 2 9 . 4 5 - 3 1 . 0 2
90 .23
90 . 8 7
91 . 5 9
1 14.69 1 2 0 . 3 2 122 . 6 1
-31 .68 - 3 7 . 3 5 - 3 6 . 4 6
52.50
53.66
52.73
84.17
90 . 1 2
90 . 0 8
24.50
24.22
24.51
16.24
17 . 7 0
15.25

-30.33
92.06
122 . 3 9
-35.67
55.15
90 . 8 2
22.64
17 . 3 1

-32.10
92.53
124.63
-37.67
55.32
92.99
22.48
16 . 9 7

0.69
0 .5
-0 .2
0.79
2.8
0.8
-6.5
-2.2

-1 .77
0.5
1 .8
-2.00
0.3
2.4
-0.7
-2.0

4268.4
3702.4
15,275
3713 .9
3001 .2
2602 .3
10,737

0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.8
1 .5
1 .7
1 .5

1 .6
0.7
0.4
1 .1
0.
-0.8
-1 .0

0 .7
0.4
0.2
0 .7
0.7
-0.1
-0.4

2799.8
2448.0
414.5
391 .6
932.8
875.4
1452.4
1181 .0

2819.9
2445.1
404.2
381 . 3
940.0
876 . 2
1475.7
1187.6

1 .3
1 .5
3.6
3.4
-0.1
1 .9
1 .6
0.6

2.5

-0.2
1 .6
0.6

0.7
-0.1
-2.5
-2.6
0.8
0.1
1 .6
0.6

687.3
664.7
672.8
649.6
14.5
15.1

675.8
651 . 3
6 80.3
651 .6
-4.5
-0.3

674.5
638.8
682.7
650.3
-8.3
-11 .5

-3.0
-2.
1 .3
0.9
-29.3
-24.8

-1 .7
-2.0
1 .1
0.3
-19.0
-15.4

-0.2
-1 .9
0.4
-0.2
-3.8
-11 .2

836 . 7
725.2
3 5 5 .7
320.4
480 . 9
40 4 . 8

860.8
742.2
367 . 6
328.9
493.3
413 . 3

874.0
750.4
369.3
330 . 9
504.7
419.5

889.7
774.1
376 .3
353.5
513.3
420.6

2.9
2.3
3.3
2.7
2.6
2 .1

1.5
1 .1
0.5
0 .6
2.3
1.5

1 .8
3 .2
1 .9
6.8
1 .7
0.3

-93.7
-105.3
-132.0 - 1 2 5 . 9
374.8
368.2
369.2
362.9
46 8 . 5
473.6
495.1
494.8

-104.5
- 1 5 3 .9
363.0

-108.9
-163 .3
370.8
371 . 2
47 9 . 7
534.5

-115.6
-155.6
383.4
385
499
540 .8

-10 .8
-28.0
-3 .1
-2.5
-0.2
3.7

A. National Income and Product
Al. GNP and Personal Income
200.
50.
217.
213.
224.
225.
227.

Gross national product
Gross national product in 1982 dollars
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
Final sales in 1982 dollars
Disposable personal income
Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars..,

230.
231.
232.
233.
236.
238.
237.
239.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Durable goods
Durable goods in 1982 dollars
Nondurable goods
Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars
Services
Services in 1982 dollars

240.
241.
242.
243.
245.
30.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Fixed investment
Fixed investment in 1982 dollars
Change in business inventories3
Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars 3 .

A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures

A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

A4.

Government Purchases
of Goods and Services

260.
261.
262.
263.
266.
267.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Federal Government
Federal Government in 1982 dollars
State and local government
State and local government in 1982 dollars

250.
255.
252.
256.
253.
257.

Net exports of goods and services3
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 3 .
Exports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

220.
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.

National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest

290.
295.
292.
298.
293.

Gross saving
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit3 .
Personal saving rate3

A5. Foreign Trade

A6.

-83.7
-105.7
-149.7 - 1 1 3 . 8
362.3
373 .0
355.8
371.3
446.0
47 8.7
521 .0 4 6 9 . 6

46 7 . 5

-4.4
-9.4
2.1
3.2
2.6
4.1

-6.7
7 .7
3 .4
3.8
4.0
1 .2

0.6
1.1
-4.0
-0.6
3.0
-1 .6

NA
1.5
2 .2
4.9
NA
-3.0

-4.2
1 .2
-45.1
40.0
-2.3

NA
NA
-2.1
NA
-0.1

National Income and Its Components
..do..
..do..
..do..
..do..
..do..
..do..

3032.0 3222.3 3387.4 3 2 4 3 . 4 3287.3 3 3 4 0 . 7
2214.7 2368.2 2498.3 2 3 8 0 . 9 2423 .6 2 4 6 1 . 5
254.4
236.9
262.1
278.9
249.3
265.3
8.3
7.6
15.6
7.3
8.3
12.8
264.7
280 .7
299.7
296 . 3
285 .6
296 . 4
307 .4
311 .4 294.9
309.7
307 .6
304.9

3 3 7 6 . 4 3396 .1
NA
2 4 8 0 . 2 2507 .4 2544.2
277 .5
289.1
283.7
16.2
16.3
17 .0
302 .0
293 .1
NA
297.7
292.9
284.1

573.3
506.1
168.7
•101 . 5
6.3

539.7
559.9
153.1
-173 .3
5.1

1 .1
0.8
9.0
27 .3
-1 .1
-2.4

A7. Saving
do..
do..
do..
do..
Percent

551 .5
537 .4
541 . 7
544.5
NA
560.1
143 .3
116.3
119.6
-136.3 -143.1 - 1 3 8 . 0
5.1
4.2
3.9

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ( u ) , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.




524.1
553.5
125.8
-155.1
4.4

583 . 2
562.6
145.6
-125.1
5.0

517 .1
566 .4
84.1
-133.3
2 .8

NA
NA
82 .3
NA
2.7

-7 .5
-0 .5
5 .2
-48.2
0.1

2
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
4
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart A l . Composite Indexes

i tadex: 1967 = 1001
J

910. Index of twelve leading indicators
(series 1,5, 8,12,19,20,29,32,36, 99,106, 111)

y
-1°

f

~~

-8

"-

•**

12,

/

/
-'

^ 2 0 .

-23

/

A /
\/

-?

"*•

Nex of fo.rcgNy^ident indicate
(series 41,47, 51, 57)

-2

/

0

1

/
+1

Hi

/\ /
r

+3

V

4

930. Index of six lagging indicators

+3

(series 62, 77, 91, 95,101, 109)

0

-•—

+3

8

1

^
yr

+1.

^

+ 13

•2

/

+5 "

1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

1
0




JANUARY 1987

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued

P

T

F

I

§
:i:.

l|(fe 1967=1001

914. Capital investment commitments |series 12,20, 23)
-8

1

p

M!fi. lnvent<f| hvestment and purchashg (series 8, 3Zgm, 99) —=?

916. Profitably (series 19, W O )

917. Money and financial flows $ • 104,106,1

940. Ratio, coincident index

1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

l » f „ ! ) JANUARY 1987



11

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR C O M P O N E N T S — C o n t i n u e d
Chart A2. Leading Index Components

1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours)

A

2

E'

State programs (thousands—inverted Kale)

8. Manujpurers new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods ^A
and materials industries (Ml. d d ) |L,L,L|

venaor penormance percent or comparies receiving slower
deliveries Percent)

12. Net businessjormation (index: 1967=100)

•\ 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipmenlin
t
1982 dolars <U. dol.)

1950 51 52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81 82

83

84

85

86

1987

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, 65, and 66.

1
2




JANUARY 1987

RCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR C O M P O N E N T S — C o n t i n u e d

Chart A2. Leading Index C o m p o n e n t s — C o n t i n u e d

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, oil. dot.)

60-

99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)

L.L.L

106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars ( h i dot.)

111. Change in business and consumer credit oufatanding

1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 71, and 72.

ItClft

JANUARY 1987




1
3

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C O M P O S I T E INDEXES A N D THEIR C O M P O N E N T S — C o n t i n u e d
Chart A3. Coincident Index C o m p o n e n t s

110 —
10090-

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
807028002600 2400 2200-

51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (am. rate, bl. dol.) "**~

2000-

ICCCl

18001600 J

140130120110 -

47. Industrial production (index: 1977=190)
1009080450 400350-

57. Manufacturing and trade ales in
1982dofers (bidol.)

300-

Cfifi
250 -

200 -

150-

1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

14




JANUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

C O M P O S I T E INDEXES A N D THEIR C O M P O N E N T S — C o n t i n u e d

Chart A4. Lagging Index C o m p o n e n t s

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars (ratio) | Lg.Lg.Lg

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data
ll 01 UCEIU

iit6iil}

11 _ i

•

I

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

95. Ratio, comma' installment credtt outstanding to personal income
(percent) | Lg,Lg,Lg

1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70. and 73.

IICII

JANUARY 1987




1
5

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment

[Marginal Employment Adjustments]
42-i

1, Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours)

4140-

39-

38

J

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours)

3-

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (thousands—inverted scale) |L,C,Ll
200-1

300-

400-

'

500600-

I Job Vacancies!

700 -

14-1

60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number
of persons unemployed (ratio) | j t , M [

1.00.6- '
0.2J

46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers (index: 1967=100)
180 -

12

zJ_

i

J

160140120100-

60 J

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .

1
6




JANUARY 1987

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued

1 Comprehensive Employment]

48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(am. rate, oil. hours) j t> c CI

42. Persons engaged in nonagricuKural activities (millions)

**

ME

41. Employees on nonagricuKural payrolls (millions)

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goods-producing
industries (trillions)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (percent)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

7!

73

74

75

76

77

T

^

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

\\i\\

JANUARY 1987



1
7

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued

P

[Comprehensive Unemployment]

37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale)

43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)

V
-

A

\

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale)

V-

/

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)
-v—,-,.
\

"\

lLg.Li.Lel
\

v/v

w

*

f7

\
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)

_ \

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.

1
8



JANUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income
N',

4400-

[Comprehensive Output and Income!
40003600 -

50. Gross national product in 1982 (talks, Q (aim. rate, bil. dol.)
3200-

2800-

2400 -

3600
3400 •
3200 •
30002800

52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (am. rate, bil. dol.)

26002400.
220020001800-

3000'
2800 •

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars
(am.rate,bit.dot) k e e l

2600
2400 •
2200 •
2000'
1800 •
1600 -

1400-

53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing,
and construction (aim. rate, bil. dot) I Q Q Q

600
550 •
500450 •

400

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

J

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.

ItCII

JANUARY 1987




1
9

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

Chart B 2 . P r o d u c t i o n a n d I n c o m e — C o n t i n u e d

[industrial Production!

47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100)

73. Industrial production, durable manufactures
(index: 1977=100)

74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(index: 1977=100)

1800-1
1700 -

IV

J_

49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars, Q
(am. rate, bil. dol.)
)c,c,C[

1600150011001300120011001000900800-

[Capacity Utilization!
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent) ll,C,Ul
90-i

7060

84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent) | L,C,U

J

60-1

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.

20




JANUARY 1987 \ \ \ \ \

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries

[Orders and Deliveries|

7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
industries (bil. doL)

60-

6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars,
durable goods industries <bi). dot.)
40

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. dol.)

Mill

-

JHi

J

110100-

70-

\r

60-

25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries », •>
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—4-term) ~ T

0-

420380340300-

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries

260-

/

220-

z

180 -

140-

100-

60

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving sfewer deliveries (percent)

J

100-1
7550-

25 J

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

IECII

JANUARY 1987




21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued

550 500 450 •

I Consumption and Trade]
57. Manufacturing and trade sales
in 1982 dollars (bil dol)

400-

c£c] V

350300 250 -

200-

56. Manufacturing and trade sates in current dollars

150 -

\
140 -

75. Industrial production, consumer goods
(index: 1977=100) f c T c I

120100 -

140120 -

59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (bil. dot.)
|U,LU|

100 -

60-1

54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (bil. dot.)
|C,L,U|

160-

\

140120 -

z

55. Personal consumption expenditures,
automobiles, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.)
[L,C,C|

100-

60-

40-

20

J

110 -

58. Index of consumer sentiment (1st Q 1966=100)

100 -

90-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.

22



JANUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment

160 -

| Formation of Business Enterprises]

140 120100 J

12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) [ U X

706050-

13. New business incorporations (thousands)
'

40-

30 -

454035-

| Business Investment Commitments [

3025-

20-

15-

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in current dollars (bil. dol.) n ~ r n

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

I L,LiL [

40-

27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nnndtfense
capital goods industries (bil. dol.)

353025-

20-

V

15-

24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries (nil. dd.) h m

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings (mil. so. ft. of floor space; MCD moving avg.—5-term) 1

llO-i
100 -

90706050-1

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

I » U ) JANUARY 1987



23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

C h a r t B 4 . Fixed C a p i t a l I n v e s t m e n t — C o n t i n u e d

[Business Investment Commitments—Con.j

97. Backlog of capital appropriation!, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (Wl. dol.)

20-

15-

11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (bil. dot.)

100. Expenditures in 1982 (Wars for new plant and equipment,
I Business Investment Expenditures]

61. Expenditures in current dolars for new pant and
equipment, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
(arm. rate, bil. dol) |cie,L

76. Industrial production, business equipment
(index: 1977=100)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

24



JANUARY 1987

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
P

r

T

P

I Business Investment Expenditures—Cotv.l
550500-

Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars,!} (ann. rateJuLJoL).

450400350300250-

!. Producers' durable equipment, Q | C.Lg.C j

200-

150 -

100

J

[Residential Construction Commitments and Investment|
28. New private bousing units started (am. rate, mWjpns)
2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.8-1

29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits
(index: 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 )

200 180 -

160140120100-

60 J
240-

Gross private residential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil.dol.)

220200180160140 120 -

100-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

K M )

JANUARY 1987




25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and I n v e n t o r y I n v e s t m e n t

1 Inventory Investment
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)

) L.L.L 1

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (arm. rate, bil. do!.; moving avg.—4-term1)

31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories, book value
(arm. rate, bil. dol.; MCO moving avg.—6-term)

38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on
hand and on order, book value (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—4-term)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

26



JANUARY 1987

ItCIt

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued

1 Inventories on Hand and on Order |
700 -

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (bil. dot.)

600500400 -

71. Manufacturing and trade inventories,
book value (bil. dol.)
V
300-

200 -

no-.
100908070-

65. Manufacturers' ii
book value (bil. dot.)

6050-

f_

40-

30-

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars

260-

78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order, book value (bil. dol.)
'

220 -

180-

Z

140-

100-

60-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

71

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

KOI

JANUARY 1987



2
7

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C

PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, a n d Profits

1 Sensitive Commodity Prices |

98

- ** a n 2e in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials
(percent; MCD moving avg.~6-term) |L,L,L[

99. Change in sensitive materials prices (percent; moving

23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials' (index: 1967=100)

[Stock Prices!
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q
I Profits and Profit Margins]

(ann. rate, Ml dol.) [1X1!

V

16. Corporate profits after tax in cuirenl dollars, Q
(an. rate, UL doL)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

fp^jl

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
?
Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

28



JANUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

C h a r t B 6 . Prices, Costs, a n d P r o f i t s — C o n t i n u e d

[Profits and Profit Margins—Con.\

280240-

Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
1982 dollars, Q (am, rate, bil. dol.)

200-

160120-

79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA aid CCAdj in
current dollars, Q (ana rate, bil. dot)

40 J

77 ftatin, rarpnratp rtnmwstic fimfifc after ta» tn cnrpnratp rinmKtir
income, Q (percent)

\

1210-

A,

7S- r

A ^

86-

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj \
J
to corporate domestic income, Q (percent)
<"V •

4-

15. Profits after taxes pef dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations, f (tents)
5-

3-

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
sector, Q (index: 1 9 7 7 = 1 0 0 )
.

102-

-ESI

100-

Ul
Y

-7/

989694-

| Cash Flows

500-

35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars, Q
(am.«te,biLdol.)
\

400-

300-

200-

34. Corporate net cash flow in curreiy doBars. 0

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

100

84

85

86

87

J

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

HOI

JANUARY 1987




29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

|

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued

1 Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share|

s

63. Unit labor cost, business sector, Q
(index: 1977=

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product
in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations, Q (dollars)

m
62. Labor cost per uret of output, manufacturing
(index: 1 9 7 7 = 1 0 0 )
^
^

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income,
Q {percent)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30



JANUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit
1(1!!

F

1

PI

p

JjiV

1

Jl.

y

p

(percent; MCD movmg avg.-6-term)

106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (Ml. dot.)

Ho, gross national pro&ict to money supply Ml

y supply M2 (ratio)

Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 .

JANUARY 1987




31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

Chart B7.

Money and C r e d i t — C o n t i n u e d

|Credit Flows]

33, Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (am. rate, bHr-dek)

112. Met change in business loans (am. rate, bil. dol.;
MCD moving avg.—&tmn)

100 -i

+ 120+ 100-

113. Net change in consumer installment "edit (am. rate, bil. dol.;
MKJ moving avg.—6-tenn) f i , L , L |

+ 80+ 60+ 40+ 200-20-

111. Change in business and consumer e r e * outstanding (arm. rate, percent)

110. Funds raised by private nonfirtancfal borrowers in credit
markets; <J (am. rate, bil. d ^ j J L X f l

100 -

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

32



JANUARY 1987

IICII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

| Credit Difficulties 1
s •

<

i

14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil dol.inverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
[L.L.L |

i *

,.

100 T

39. Percent of consumer instattnent loans delinquent 30 days and over
(percent—inverted scste) [ Q J ]
1.6-

**/"¥*\ T

1.82.0^!9rt0*m'

2.2-

\

2.42.62.8-

[Bank Reserves|

93. Free reserves (ml. dol.—inverted scale)
L.U.U

94. Member bank borrowioSi from the Federal Reserve (bil. dol.)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

JANUARY

1987




33

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

| Interest Rates]

119. Federal funds rate (percent)

114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills

116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(percent)
X ]

115. Yield on long-term Treasury bands (percent)

Z

118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (percent)

117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (percent)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.

34



JANUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

{interest Rates—Con.
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

67, Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)

400-

[Outstanding Debt]

350-

101. Commercial and industriai bans outstanding in 1982 dollars

'•(MLdoL)

:.

300-

nTTTTTI \

250200-

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current

150 700-

11

600500400-

300-

66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (bil. dot.)
200-

100-1

m

35. Ratio, consumer instalment credit outstanding to personal income
(percent) [Lg.Lg.Lgt

18161412-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

BCII

JANUARY 1987




35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

D I F F U S I O N I N D E X E S A N D RATES OF C H A N G E

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
,'dr ililv
P

T

P

950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span.—)
1001

50-

951. Four roughly coincident indicate components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. spaa—)
100-i

mm

n

JL2.

vt {in;;?

50-

952. Sac lagging indicator components (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span—-)

50-

961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20
manufacturing industries (9-mo. span
, 1-mo. s p a n — )

50-

962. IriHJaJ claims for unemployroent insurance, State programs, 51 areas
(percent declining; 9-mo. s p a n ^ - , 1-mo. span—-)

100-1

50-

963. finployees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries
( 6 - m span—, 1-nw.^

100-1

50-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.

36



JANUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
P

T

T

P

964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries
(9-mo. s p a n — , 1-iro. span—-)

| Percent rising]
100-

50-

0-

965. Newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing industries <4-Q moving a v g * * * 1-Q span**.)
i
1

966. hAstrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span-—)
100-

50-

0-

967. Spot market print, 13 raw industrial materials
(9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span—-)
100 -

50-

0-

Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 42-82 industries
(9-mo. span-—, 1-mo. s p a n — )
100-

50-

0-

968. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span)
908070-

V

NV"^

\

A

605040-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

:

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

KCII

JANUARY 1987




37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES A N D RATES OF C H A N G E — C o n t i n u e d
Chart C l . Diffusion I n d e x e s — C o n t i n u e d

i Actual
Anticipated

Actual
~—•
Anticipated .••••••

I Percent rising |

970. Expenditures for new plant and
equipment, 21 industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expendtures

974. Number of employees, manufacJurjnf and trade (4-Q span)1
70605040-

975. Level of inventories, annulacturBtg and trade (4-Q span)

(a) Actual expenditures

1

80A.

*

70-

/

60-

;>
5040-

971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)

1

976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
10090807050

J

60-

972. Net profits, manufactunng and trade (4-Q span)1

977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1
90-i

•A

Nv

i •

*•

80-

*J

70-

'7

60-

mi

50-1

978. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1

973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
100-1

•
. •

•

' •

••

, '

j

90-

*

-I

v^.

i
1975 76

70-

60-

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

1975 76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

This is a copyrighted ; ries used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400
business executives.




JANUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change

50c. Gross natjonalprodtct in 1982 dollars (1-Q span)

48c. Employee hours in nonagricuttural establishments

s transfer payments in 1982 dollars

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index— Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.

JANUARY 1987




OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income
N"v

Mar

5000 -

I
V

450040003500 3000-

200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (am. rate, bit. dol.)

25002000-

223. Personal income in current dollars
(am. rate, bil. dol.)
\

1500-

\
\
224. Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.)

1000-

45004000-

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(am. rate, bil. dol.)

3500300025002000-

4500-

213. Final sales in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, HI. dol.)

40003500 3000 2500-

2000 -

225. Disposable personat income in 1982
dollars, Q (ann. rate,ttldol.)

1500

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(am. rate, thous. dol.)
•'•—

1816141210-

227. Per capita disposable personal income in
1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, thous, dd.)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.

40



JANUARY 1987

J

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND P R O D U C T — C o n t i n u e d

Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures

j Annual rate, biWon dollars (current)!
3200 30002800 26002400220020001800160014001200 1000-

Personal consumption expenditures—

230.

Annual rate, blion dollars (1982),

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 8 1 .

KCII

JANUARY 1987




41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

ii

Ill
lltSSSi

Gross private domestic investment— | l f l

900-

% §^

sill?

.fill

I M I H I rate, billion (Wars (current) |

n

800-

rz^m"^m

|if|j§

M

700600500-

ami

400-

*Jf

ii
if

<<£?.;£"..

ill
^^

300-J

200-

242. Fixed investment, Q

245. Change in business inventories, Q

Annual rate, bilon dollars (1982)

30. Change in business inventories, Q

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

4
2




JANUARY 1987

ItCIt

O T H E R I M P O P " >.\
A

I

NATIONAL I N C O M E AND P R O D U C T — C o n t i n u e d

Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services

[Annual rate, billion dollars (current)|

Government purchases of goods and services—

300- •

200-

266. State and local
government, Q

100-1

Annual rate, pion dollars (1982)|

1000-

900800700600500-

267. State and local government, Q
400-

300-

200 -

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .

JANUARY 1987




43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A 5 . Foreign Trade

600-

| Annual rate, biffion dollars (current)\-

550500450400350300250-

252. Exports of goods and services, Q
200 -

150-

253. Imports of goods and services, Q
100-

50 J

250. Net exports of goods and services, Q
.-50 - i
0-50-100-150 J

[ Annual rate, biBion dollars (1982)1
600-i
550500450400350-

257, Imports of goods and services, Q
300250-

200-

256. Exports of goods and services, Q
150-"
t-100-

255. Net exports of goods and services, Q

+ 50-

-50-100 -150-200 1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 72

73 74

75 76

77

78 79

80

81

82

83 84

85 86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

44



JANUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A6. National Income and Its Components

(Annual rate, bion dollars (current)|
4000 T

M

35003000 25002000-

220. National income, Q
1500 -

^ - 280. Compensation of employees, Q
1000-1
400360 320280240-

286. Corporate proits before tax with inventory valuation
and capital coftaunption adjustments. Q

20018016014012010090807060-

282. Proprietors' income with inventory vafaafon and
capital consumption adjustments, Q

5040-

30-

20-

284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, Q

10-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

I d I ) JANUARY 1987



45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A7. Saving

P

T

[Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

60-

40-1

298. Government surplus or deficit, Q
0-20-

-40-60-

-100-120-140-160-180-200-

lO-i

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.

46



JANUARY 1987

ItOI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income

j Percent of GNP]
70-i

235. Personal consumption expenditures, Q

65-

60-1

268. State and local government purchases
i t goods and services. 0
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q

248. Nonresidential fixed investment, Q

249. Residential feted investment, Q
/
V
251. Net exports of goods and services, Q

247. Change in business inventories, Q '

Yl
-5-

|Percent of National Income]

64. Compensation of employees, Q
75-

15-1

Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q

10-

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q Z-i.i
5-

289. Net interest, Q
0J

285. Rental income of persons wim capital consumption adjustment, Q
1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

',
77

78

79

80

:
81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

KCII

JANUARY 1987




47

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart B l . Price Movements
Jar,

P

T

P

P

I Index: 1982=1001

1,1,

I

if
f

310c. Implicit price de flator f
nafrnal p""*1""'

310. Implicit price
national product,

, 1 , .

T

P

ross • j rercent eniange at annual rate (
]\

+ 15 +10 - •
+ 5 - •

0 -

1975 76

11

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

1975 76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.




JANUARY 1987

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
P

T

I Index: 1967^1001
380 -

Consumer price indexes—

340300 260 220-

322. All urban consumers, food —~
180-

320. All urban consumers
140-

J & All urban consumers (6-mon<hspan)

j Percent change at annual ratej
+ 20-

Ji2c. All urban consumers, food (6-month span)
+ 20+ 100-10-

Chart B 2 . Wages and P r o d u c t i v i t y

I Index: 1977 = 1001
| Wages]

200180160-

341. Real average hourly earnings of production or iwnsupervisorv
worfcatffi private nonaEricuttutat payrolls1

14012010080 J

340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers
on private nonagricuKural payrolls (current doltes) 1
—

200180160 140-

346. Real awrage hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q

120-

I
V
100 -

345. Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

60 J

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.

ItCII

JANUARY 1987




49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND

PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
P

T

—

—

^

T

P

Change in average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private mmagricutoiral payrolls'—

I

ercen

c

an

-U

340c. Current-dollar earnings

»

U

!1

;

Change in average hourly compensation, ail employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—
f

345c. Current-dollar compensation ^

4-quarter spans
+ 10+ 5-

- — 1 - q u a r t e r spans (ann. rate)
0-

346c. Real compensation

+ 10+ 50-5-

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions—

348. Average first-year changes, Q (arm, rate)

349. Average changes over life of

contract, Q (ann. rate)
I Index: 1977=100

358. Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q
370. Output per hour, all persons,
business sector, I
j Percent change |

370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q
— l-quarter spans (am. rate) ,

\.r \! ' • v t V
1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. ' One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable
with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.

50



JANUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

LABOR F O R C E , E M P L O Y M E N T , A N D U N E M P L O Y M E N T

C h a r t C l . Civilian Labor Force a n d M a j o r C o m p o n e n t s

Civilian labor force participation rates

i 20 years and over

4 5 3 S § l e x e s 16-19 years of age

3

452. Females 20 years and over
Number unemployed (millions)
$$H}^_

37. Persons

445, Females 20 years

Both sexes 16-19 years of age

447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (millions)

>-448. Number of persons employed part time for economic
reasons (millions)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

K O )

JANUARY 1987




51

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
D |

G O V E R N M E N T ACTIVITIES

Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures

| Annual rate, bHton dollars (current))
1400-

IV

12001000-

[ml
600-

502. Federal Government expenditures, Q •
400-

501. Federal Government receipts, Q
200 J

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q

•M

900800700600500400-

511. State and local government receipts, Q — ^
300-

200-

512. State and local government expenditures, Q
100

J

H00-|
+ 80+ 60-

510. State aw) local government surplus or deficit, Q

+ 40+ 200-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

52



JANUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators

p i

P

[Advance Measures of Defense Activity|

517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(bil. dol.; MCO moving avg.—6-term)

525. Defense Department prime contract awards
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil. doL)

548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(Wl. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

11

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

ItCII JANUARY 1987



5
3

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued

[intermediate and Final Measures of Def§j|| Activity!

1T
S

JM

zszt

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78 79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .

54



JANUARY 1987

IIUI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Ian J u y

Ni'i

Vat

<•

T

P

J

*£•

| Intermediate and Final Measures of Deftife Activity—Con. [ k&
«

T

July
P

% 5*

570. EmpMittldefense products industries ( B i o n s j i i

Defense Department personnel (millions)-

%

2.01.81.61.4-

f

J

, Civilian personnel, direct hire «npk>ymerit

564. Federal Govemment purchases of goods and services, nattait v ^ l ^ i
defense, Q (am. rate, oil. (

150-

„ ' ' -ij"

100 -

r JCT

50 J

565.
1097-

54-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .

l » 4 ^ l r JANUARY 1987



5
5

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart E l . Merchandise Trade

2520-

15-

602. Exports, exdudng military aid shipments (bil. dot.)

*T

Zs+*Wr -

109876543-

2-

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products
(bil. dol.)
\
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bil <M.)

1-1

4035302520-

612. General imports (bil. dol.)
1098765-

3-

2-

614. Imports of petroleum and p e t r o l e u m products (bil. dol)

10 8-

616. Imports of automobiles and parts m. dot.)

0.6-

0.4-

0.2

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

J

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 92.

56




JANUARY 1987

ito

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. I N T E R N A T I O N A L

TRANSACTIONS—Continued

C h a r t E 2 . Goods and Services M o v e m e n t s

[Annual rate, billion dollars |

| Excess of receipts
j Excess of payments
Goods and services-

667.

Balance on goods and services, Q

622.

Balance on merchandise trade, Q

70-

Income on investment—

60-

651. OS. investment abroad, Q —
50403020-

"652. Foreign investment in the United States, Q
100-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

IECII

JANUARY 1987




5
7

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart F l . Industrial Production

P

T

x: 1977 = 100

[Index: 1977=J00i
Industrial production—

Industrial production—
140
130 -

130'

47. United States

721. OECD European countries

120 -

120 •

[1

110'

110 -

100'

100 -

90-1

90-

160150-

130-

140 -

728. Japan

120-

722. United Kingdom

130 -

110-

120 -

•V*

110-

10090-

100
90-1

130 120-

. west Germany

110 100 -

M-*™

90-

130 -

72C. Trance

120

120 -

Hi. oanada

110'

110-

100'

100-

90

1975 76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

90-"

1975 76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.

58



JANUARY 1987

IECII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices

Chart F3. Stock Prices
Jan.
P

My

July

iw

T

P

r

80

81

) Percent change at annual rate
Consumer prices—

1975

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

1975 76

77

78

79

82

83

84

85

86 1987

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

JANUARY 1987




59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

2 9

Year
and
month

910. Index of
twelve leading
indicators (series
1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
99, 106, 111)

(1967 = 100)

920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51,57)

(1967 = 100)

930. Index of
six lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)

(1967 = 100)

COMPOSITE INDEXES

940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging indexx

Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)x

(1967 = 100)

915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99) x

916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)

917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104, 106,
111)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

1985
January
February
March

166.3
167.1
167.4

158.4
159.0
159.3

124.3
125.4

128.1
127.9
127.0

109.2
111.0

110.8

102.6
102.5
102.0

113.1
114.1
114.2

139.0
138.6
138.9

April
May
June

166.7
167.1
167.7

160.5
160.2
159.5

125.1
126.7
126.5

128.3
126.4
126.1

110.0
109.7
110.1

101.8
101.6
101.5

114.5
115.0
115.8

137.1
135.9
135.6

July
August
September

169.2
169.8
170.6

159.7
160.9
160.9

126.9
127.2
128.4

125.8
126.5
125.3

110.5
110.6
111.2

101.5
101.5
101.6

116.7
116.9
115.6

137.7
139.0
140.0

October
November
December

171.6
171.6
173.6

160.8
161.6
163.0

129.7
129.7
130.2

124.0
124.6
125.2

110.3
109.5
110.5

102.1
102.3
102.7

114.8
114.9
116.5

141.1
140.6
141.9

rl73.4
174.9
rl75.9

162.9
163.4
162.9

rl31.6
rl31.9
rl32.9

rl23.8
rl23.9
rl22.6

108.9
rll0.7
110.5

103.3
103.4
103.3

117.3
119.0
119.8

142.2
140.5
139.9

178.2
178.1
177.7

rl65.6
164.2
163.7

rl31.0
rl32.1
rl32.1

rl26.4
rl24.3
rl23.9

111.1
rlO9.7
rlO9.8

103.6
103.2
102.6

119.9
119.7
120.4

140.3
142.8
143.0

July
August
September

rl79.3
179.1
rl79.4

164.2
164.5
rl65.3

rl32.1
131.9
rl31.4

rl24.3
124.7
125.8

rll0.5
109.3
rlO9.6

102.7
102.3
102.4

rl20.1
(H>rl20.7
rll9.0

rl46.3
rl46.2

October
November
December

rl80.6
182.2
H> 2 186.1

rl64.9
165.3

rl33.3
133.5

0> 166.6

Hyi34.2

rl23.7
rl23.8
P124.1

109.0
rlO9.2
pllO.5

rlO2.6
rlO3.5
P104.9

rll8.1
P118.0
(NA)

B>P151.O

123.7

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June

3

145.5

rl47.9
147.4

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
1
The following series reached their high values before 1985: series 940 (136.2) in January 1984, series 914 (111.5) in February 1984, and
series 915 (107.9) in April 1984.
2
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
3
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
^Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

60



JANUARY 1987

IICII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

£ ]

Minor Economic
Process

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Timing Class

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

L,C, L

L,C, L

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing

5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs2

(Hours)

(Thous.)

L, L,L

1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing 1

(Hours)

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies
L, Lg, U

60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed

(Ratio)

u, c, c

L, Lg, U

46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers

(1967 = 100)

48. Employee hours in
nonagricultural establishments

(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)

Revised 3

1985
January
February
March

40.5
40.1
40.5

3.3
3.3
3.3

378
402
389

0.490
0.501
0.502

140
141
141

180.23
180.17
181.38

April
May
June

40.3
40.4
40.5

3.3
3.2
3.2

387
383
392

0.470
0.474
0.500

132
132
141

181.05
181.65
181.88

July
August
September

40.4
40.6
40.7

3.2
3.3
3.3

381
375
381

0.497
0.490
0.491

141
134
136

181.80
182.58
183.11

October
November
December

40.7
40.7
40.9

3.4
3.4
3.6

367
371
391

0.503
0.524
0.527

140
144
145

184.42
184.58
184.81

January
February
March

40.8
40.7
40.7

3.5
3.4
3.4

375
384
393

0.538
0.498
0.490

143
142
138

185.63
185.29
185.41

April
May
June

40.7
40.7
40.6

3.4
3.4
3.3

374
378
378

0.472
0.452
0.500

132
128
141

185.82
185.76
185.45

July
August
September

40.6
40.8
40.8

3.4
3.5
3.5

370
379
369

0.506
0.495
0.485

140
134
135

185.90
186.66
186.95

October
November
December

40.7
r40.8
P40.9

3.5
3.5
B)p3.6

343

0.510
0.530
H)p0.543

141

0)342
356

E>rl47
pl45

rl87.41
rl88.51
H)pl88.52

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
x
2
3

Series 1 reached its high value (41.1) in April 1984.
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

JANUARY 1987



61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

m

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Comprehensive Employment—Continued

Process

Timing Class

CCC

U, C, C

42. Number
of persons
engaged in nonYear

agricultural

and

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls

activities

month

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

Revised

L, C, U

40. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
goodsproducing
industries
(Thous.)

2

Comprehensive Unemployment

U, Lg, U

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age

(Percent)

Revised

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

37. Number of

43. Unemployment rate

persons unemployed

(Percent)

(Thous.)
2

Revised

2

L, Lg, U

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1

(Percent)

C)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15

9 1 . Average
duration of
unemployment

weeks and over

(Percent)

(Weeks)

Revised

2

(2)

1985

102,979
103,269
103,676

96,366
96,507
96,870

25,008
24,931
24,971

59.18
59.31
59.46

8,506
8,365
8,351

103,612
103,719
103,403

97,104
97,338
97,442

24,996
24,949
24,897

59.41
59.39
59.08

103,711
104,030
104,558

97,672
97,890
98,128

24,875
24,880
24,843

104,720
104,923
104,998

98,428
98,666
98,910

105,612
105,452
105,555

February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

r7.2

2.9
2.9
2.9

15.9
15.9
16.2

2.0
2.1
2.1

8,364
8,291
8,385

7.3
r7.2
7.3

2.8
2.8
2.8

16.4
15.3
15.5

2.1
2.0
2.0

59.19
59.30
59.50

8,438
8,141
8,242

7.3
7.1
7.1

2.8
2.8
2.8

15.5
15.3
15.3

2.0
2.0
2.0

24,903
24,931
24,977

59.55
59.60
59.64

8,288
8,171
8,184

7.1
7.0
r7.0

2.7
2.7
2.8

15.3
15.6
15.2

2.0
1.9
1.9

99,296
99,429
99,484

B>25,101
25,038
24,945

59.86
59.63
59.71

E>7,902
8,485
8,380

r6.8
r7.2
7.2

2.8
2.8
2.8

15.0
15.2
B)14.6

1.8
2.0
1.9

105,770
106,014
106,449

January

99,783
99,918
99,843

25,038
24,965
24,854

59.75
59.80
59.99

8,323
8,422
8,392

7.1
r7.2
7.1

2.8
2.8
2.8

14.7
14.8
15.2

rl.9

106,763
107,010
106,845

100,105
100,283
100,560

24,869
24,888
24,858

60.08
60.12
60.02

8,230
8,057
8,285

r7.0
6.8
7.0

2.8
2.8
2.8

15.1
15.6
15.5

1.9
1.9
2.0

107,030
107,217
E>107,476

rl00,826
rl01,065
H)pl01,334

r24,865
r24,895
p24,932

60.07
60.14
0)60.19

8,222
8,243
7,949

r6.9
r6.9
E>6.7

2.7
2.7

15.2
14.8
15.0

1.8
1.9

7.4
7.3

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

H>2.6

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
x
2

Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

62



JANUARY 1987

1.8
1.9

[H>1.8

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

PRODUCTION AND INCOME

Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Output and Income

Timing Class . . .

Year
and
month

C, C, C

50. Gross national product
in 1982 dollars

C.C.C

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C.C.C

52. Constant
(1982) dollars

51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Personal income
223. Current
dollars

Industrial Production

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C.CC

53. Wages and
salaries in 1982
dollars, mining,
mfg., and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C,C,C

47. Index of
industrial
production

C, CTC

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

C.L.L

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

c, c, c

49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985
January
February
March

3,547^0

3,227.3
3,258.3
3,273.8

2,933.9
2,951.4
2,952.0

2,500.3
2,516.8
2,517.9

538.2
537.3
539.2

122.7
123.2
123.4

126.6
126.4
127.3

122.6
123.5
123.7

1,521.1

April
May
June

3,567.6

3,302.7
3,288.5
3,304.9

2,972.7
2,949.3
2,958.7

2,537.6
2,514.8
2,525.1

537.1
537.7
537.1

123.3
123.6
123.6

127.5
127.4
127.0

124.1
124.7
124.8

1,526^0

July
August
September

3,60X8

3,315.4
3,320.5
3,333.9

2,962.8
2,962.1
2,963.5

2,522.2
2,525.9
2,526.8

535.7
537.8
537.0

123.4
124.4
124.3

126.9
128.1
127.4

125.4
126.0
126.4

1,544.2

October
November
December

3,62^3

3,358.3
3,372.3
3,418.0

2,971.9
2,971.2
3,003.5

2,535.9
2,536.4
2,569.0

538.7
538.3
541.5

123.6
124.8
125.6

126.7
128.2
128.7

125.8
127.2
127.5

l,54l'.7

January
February
March

3,655.9

3,417.4
3,435.3
3,445.1

2,992.5
3,021.4
3,040.7

2,551.7
2,577.9
2,593.6

541.1
541.0
542.0

126.2
125.3
123.6

129.5
128.7
126.8

129.3
128.7
127.7

1,563*.6

April
May
June

3,66l!4

3,486.8
3,481.3
3,481.9

0)3,082.9
3,072.6
3,059.7

D2,633.9
2,621.9
2,609.9

1)544.7
543.7
539.0

124.7
124.2
124.2

128.1
127.0
126.2

129.6
129.9
131.2

1,562^8

July
August
September

3,686!i

3,490.8
3,497.9
3,507.9

3,062.1
3,060.3
3,053.0

2,605.7
2,608.4
2,601.6

538.9
541.4
539.0

124.9
125.1
rl24.9

127.4
127.5
rl28.1

131.7
132.2
rl31.4

1,568.0

October
November
December

E>P3,7O2.4

r3,518.8
r3,526.6
[H>P3,554.8

r3,057.2
r3,056.0
p3,075.1

r2,605.0
r2,604.2
p2,622.6

r544.3
r540.3
P541.5

rl25.3
rl26.0
E)pl26.6

rl28.2
rl28.7
[H>pl29.6

rl32.3
133.1
0)pl33.8

B>pl,58i.'6

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.

BCII

JANUARY 1987




63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

• •
mm

PRODUCTION AND
INCOME—Continued

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Q j

Capacity Utilization

L, C, U

82. Capacity
utilization rate,
manufacturing x

Orders and Deliveries

L, C, U

84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materialsx

L, L,L

(Percent)

L, L, L

Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars

(Percent)

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

(Bil. dol.)

7. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

ILL

8. Manufacturers' new
orders in 1982
dollars, consumer goods
and materials
(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

L, Lg, U

25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

goods industries

L, L, L

32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries1©
(Percent
reporting)

1985
January
February
March

80.2
80.2
80.4

81.4
81.3
81.2

105.45
102.47
99.54

99.67
96.76
93.91

86.65
83.67
81.88

3.48
0.75
-2.58

348.92
349.67
347.10

47
48
46

April
May
June

80.4
80.3
80.0

80.5
80.1
80.2

99.84
102.97
106.78

94.10
96.69
100.17

83.31
84.09
83.17

-2.22
0.25
4.12

344.87
345.13
349.25

44
44
44

July
August
September

79.9
80.3
80.0

79.7
79.8
79.5

104.37
107.66
106.64

97.72
100.81
100.23

83.51
84.78
85.29

1.89
2.35
2.98

351.14
353.49
356.48

44
42
42

October
November
December

79.4
80.1
80.2

79.1
79.4
80.3

104.50
103.80
107.53

97.66
97.01
100.40

86.25
86.90
85.70

-1.98
-3.21
1.75

354.49
351.28
353.04

46
42
46

January
February
March

80.8
80.2
79.1

80.1
79.6
78.5

108.19
107.54
104.68

101.31
100.70
97.93

89.40
87.70
83.95

2.56
2.00
1.99

355.60
357.60
E>359.59

46
48
50

April
May
June

79.9
79.4
79.3

78.7
78.1
78.0

103.75
102.62
102.73

96.78
95.64
95.74

86.96
83.68
85.68

-2.84
-1.05
-1.82

356.74
355.70
353.87

50
55
50

July
August
September

79.7
79.7
79.6

78.3
77.9
r78.1

106.22
103.84
108.72

98.81
96.51
100.76

84.84
r85.29
88.32

1.24
-0.31
2.70

355.11
354.80
357.50

54
51
52

October
November
December

r79.7
79.9
p80.3

r77.9
r78.5
P78.6

103.57
rlO8.83
[H>plO9.85

95.63
rl00.39
H>plO1.34

87.41
r85.90
H>p91.98

-3.87
r2.16

353.62
r355.78
P353.77

54
56
56

1986

p-2.01

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1985: series 82 (81.3) in July 1984; series 84 (82.9) in August 1984; series 25
(8.14) in March 1984; and series 32 (72) in March 1984.

6
4



JANUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ 9

Minor Economic
Process

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Timing Class

C,C,C

C,C,C

Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month

• •
FIXED CAPITAL
l i f l INVESTMENT

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued

56. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

57. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

C, L, C

75. Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods

(1977 = 100)

C, L, U

U, L, U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

59. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

L, C, C

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

58. Index of
consumer
sentiment1©

L, L, L

12. Index of
net business
formation1

(1st Q
1966 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

1985
January
February
March

417,350
418,218
420,346

398,853
400,734
402,554

118.0
119.1
119.3

110,511
111,935
111,999

104,256
105,301
104,966

11CL2

96.0
93.7
93.7

121.4
122.7
122.0

52,768
54,765
55,785

April
May
June

423,215
424,379
418,219

406,623
408,803
400,212

118.9
119.7
119.9

114,256
113,992
113,468

106,881
106,734
106,243

112!8

94.6
91.8
96.5

121.6
119.6
120.2

55,659
55,694
55,270

July
August
September

421,565
428,205
427,201

404,428
411,491
410,596

119.4
120.9
121.1

114,620
116,349
118,499

107,322
108,737
110,643

126!i

94.0
92.4
92.1

122.4
121.5
121.3

54,934
55,644
55,939

October
November
December

426,123

408,186
r411,314
r411,483

120.5
122.7
123.3

114,947

r431,012
r432,679

rll5,354
rll6,743

107,127
rl07,007
rlO7,896

111.6

88.4
90.9
93.9

121.5
120.5
119.5

r55,202
r56,316
57,785

January
February
March

431,957
426,854
420,230

411,824
412,199
410,592

123.8
123.3
121.8

117,349
117,200
116,684

108,056
109,023
109,665

ni.'i

95.6
95.9
95.1

118.4
121.2
121.8

57,452
0)61,062
58,981

April
May
June

428,455
421,613
425,475

420,460
413,038
415,467

124.5
124.3
124.4

117,715
118,675
118,960

111,157
111,642
111,700

115.2

96.2
94.8
99.3

123.1
119.9
119.5

59,880
57,789
56,771

July
August
September

427,473
429,310
0)442,206

419,493
421,843
0)432,903

125.2
125.1

rl24.2

119,804
121,523
0)128,331

112,492
113,467
0)119,045

0>146!l

97.7
94.9
91.9

121.6
119.5
120.9

57,789
55,647
57,310

October
November
December

r435,848
p437,141
(NA)

r424,508
p426,404
(NA)

rl24.9
rl25.8
0)pl26.9

rl21,655
rl20,937
pl26,255

rll3,062
rll2,186
pll6,687

P130.7

95.6
91.4
89.1

rll8.9

1986

120.1

(NA)

P118.0

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
Series 58 reached its high value (101.0) in March 1984; series 12 reached its high value (123.2) in January 1984.

ItCII

JANUARY 1987




6
5

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
|

PROCESS

3

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

Minor Economic
Business Investment Commitments

Process

Timing Class

L.L.L

L, L, L

L. L, L

L, L. L

Contracts and orders for

Manufacturers' new orders,

plant and equipment

nondefense capital goods industries

L.C.U

U, Lg, U

9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings1

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,

Year
and
month

10. Current
dollars

20. Constant
(1982) dollars

24. Current
dollars

27. Constant
(1982) dollars

Square feet of
floor space

Square meters of
floor space2

1,000 manufacturing corpora-

C Lg, Lg

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations

tions3
(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

(Millions)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

1985

27.81
33.80
32.09

27.74
35.81
32.91

23.63
29.49
27.21

23.90
H>31.86
28.43

81.14
82.48
87.41

7.54
7.66
8.12

29.94

30.32
30.66
32.63

30.49
31.33
33.34

25.46
25.59
27.98

26.04
26.72
29.14

91.95
83.99
69.68

8.54
7.80
6.47

27^56

32.08
32.11
34.57

32.63
33.01
35.24

26.68
27.55
29.24

27.74
28.89
30.43

91.89
91.41

8.54
8.49

E>93.19

ED8.66

November

32.82
30.79

E>r35.42

33.49
31.52
r34.95

27.09
25.79

D30.57

28.32
27.02
30.58

92.00
92.61
79.23

8.55
8.60
7.36

27'.19

December

27.63
32.69
30.18

27.41
34.28
31.04

24.29
28.64
26.54

24.41
30.64
27.78

70.66
78.41
69.96

6.56
7.28
6.50

23^9

31.09
31.08
32.36

26.18
26.14
26.42

27.18
27.73
28.62

84.26
76.71
75.88

7.83
7.13
7.05

rl9.99

June

30.57
29.92
30.64

July
August
September

31.68
30.18
32.46

r33.57
32.26
33.60

27.39
26.32
28.22

29.76
28.85
29.86

73.10
79.09
80.82

6.79
7.35
7.51

«:H

r32.31
r34.27
H>p35.98

26.91
r28.44
P30.01

28.35
r30.36
P31.50

71.77
85.41
78.29

6.67
7.93
7.27

(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October

99^35

(H>99*.88

«:"
97.18

9 4 ! 58

1986
January
February
March
April
May

October
November
December

31.39
r32.86
P35.09

92^22

r85!77

p8l!l2

(NA)

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page-60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Series 11 reached its high value (34.12) in 2d quarter 1984.

6
6



JANUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

C Lg, Lg

61. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued

100. Constant
(1982) dollars

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and
business
construction
expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C Lg, U

76. Index of
industrial production, business equipment

(1977 = 100)

C Lg, C

Lg, Lg, Lg

C Lg, C

28. New private housing
units started1

Gross private nonresidential
fixed investment in 1982 dollars
86. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures

L, L, L

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

L, L, L

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits 1
(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

89. Gross private residential
fixed investment
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985
January
February
March

373^6

371^84

374.91
389.27
407.68

138.3
139.2
138.9

442.' 7

149'.9

292.8

1,804
1,632
1,849

130.8
135.2
139.9

172^4

April
May
June

387!86

387:31

400.96
397.75
403 49

140.7
140.8
138 5

4 6 3 :o

H>154*.i

308.9

1,851
1,684
1 693

135.1
137.7
136 9

175li

July
August
September

389^3

388 .'58

397.96
408.25
397.48

139.5
141.0
140.4

463!l

- 3

310.9

1,673
1,737
1,653

136.3
142.1
147.2

180.0

October
November
December

0)397.'88

409.30
410.53

138.3
140.8
140.0

0)476^9

152.4

324.5

0)423.97

1,784
1,654
1,882

135.8
133.0
146.7

18K5

309! 7

2,034
2,001
1,960

148.4
144.2
146.3

186.3

2,019
1,853
1,852

150.3
142.6
142.9

192^7

1,782
1,795
1,664

140.3
133.4
127 8

197.2

1,628

124.8
128.6
152.3

1986
January
February
March

»,:«

374ll8

385.23
398.64
401.72

0)141.5
140.5
137.7

457'.8

148 !i

April
May
June

375^92

372.73

402.58
390.01
397.39

138.6
137.9
136.6

456.8

132.9

July
August
September

374:55

368 .'69

r400.04
r400.00
r396.15

137.9
139.3
rl39.3

454^4

129^5

0)324.9

October
November
December

a394.34

a389.17

r402.01
P400.29
(NA)

rl39.2
rl39.2
P139.3

P451.0

P128.4

P322.6

January
February
March

a386.82

a38o!o4

April
May
June

a393:39

a386.29

rl,585
pi,802

1987

July
August
September
October
November'
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
x

Series 28 reached its high value (2,213) in February 1984; series 29 reached its high value (158.5) in February 1984.

JANUARY 1987



6
7

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class ,

Year
and
month

Inventories on Hand and on Order

Inventory Investment

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars 1

36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars1
Smoothed2

Actual

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, L, L

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories, book
value1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

38. Change in
mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order1
(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg,

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Book
value
(Bil. dol.)

70. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods, book
value

77. Ratio,
mfg. and
trade inventories to
sales in
1982 dollars

(Bil. dol.)

(Ratio)

L, Lg, Lg

78. Mfrs.'
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order *
(Bil. dol.)

1985
January
February
March

23^2

29.90
14.93
-19.46

12.45
14.34
10.80

28.4
32.9
-2.1

0.65
-0.48
-3.07

575.80
578.54
578.37

632.39
634.14
634.21

89.69
89.86
90.12

1.59
1.58
1.58

217.95
217.47
214.40

April
May
June

7.42
-25.43
7.82

4.71
-5.76
-7.94

2.0

17.4

-8.6
27.5

-0.94
-1.54
1.68

578.53
577.81
580.11

635.58
634.35
635.39

90.12
0)90.13
89.87

1.56
1.55

0)1.59

213.46
211.93
213.61

July
August
September

CL7

7.88
-17.23
-5.38

-3.32
-1.88
-2.71

3.2
-10.6
0.4

-0.46
0.31
-0.11

580.37
579.49
579.52

636.56
635.86
635.69

89.26
88.86
88.26

1.57
1.55
1.55

213.15
213.46
213.35

October
November
December

-5\2

23.60
12.84
5.47

-2.29
5.34
12.16

29.6
r8.7
r5.3

-0.34
-1.28
1.83

581.99
r582.71
583.15

637.74
638.64
638.43

87.58
88.24
88.37

1.56
1.55
1.55

213.69
212.41
214.24

January
February
March

39.' 9

33.83
18.79
44.95

15.68
18.37
25.94

21.8
2.5
36.0

-0.26
1.43
-1.10

584.97
585.18
588.18

640.58
641.50
645.87

87.92
87.53
87.62

1.56
1.56
1.57

213.99
215.41
214.31

April
May
June

15.1

13.54
-52.33
7.50

29.14
13.91
-4.19

5.1
-22.5
26.2

-1.76
-1.39
-0.85

588.60
586.73
588.91

647.86
645.28
646.28

87.80
87.66
86.71

1.54
1.56
1.56

212.56
211.17
210.31

July
August
September

13.60

-0.3

r-19.69
r-34.42

-10.42
r-4.97
r-6.52

35.8
-21.0
-24.9

-0.24
-0.58
2.07

0)591.90
590.14
588.07

0)648.42
646.97
643.48

87.28
86.73
85.52

1.55
1.53
1.49

210.08
209.50
211.57

October
November
December

P-1L5

rl3.10
p-2.93
(NA)

r-13.59
p-10.88
(NA)

r41.8
p-11.4
(NA)

-0.82
p0.35
(NA)

r591.56
P590.61
(NA)

r644.78
P644.67
(NA)

85.45
P86.74
(NA)

1.52
pi.51
(NA)

210.76
P211.10
(NA)

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
lr
rhe following series reached their high values before 1985: series 30 (85.1) in 1st quarter 1984, series 36 actual (89.59) in February
1984, series 36 smoothed (76.50) in April 1984, series 31 (88.9) in February 1984, series 38 (3.02) in October 1983, and series 78 (222.58)
in July 1984.
2
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.




JANUARY 1987

licit

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

Timing Class

L, L,L

L,L,L

U, L, L

L, L, L

98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials x

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials12©

99. Change in sensitive materials
prices

(Percent)

Year
and
month

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

(1967 = 100)

Smoothed3

Actual

(Percent)

(Percent)

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ©

(1941-43 = 10)

Profits and Profit Margins
L, L,L

L.L.L

Corporate profits after tax
16. Current
dollars1

18. Constant
(1982) dollars1

L, C. L

L, C, L

Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdj"
79. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

80. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
incomex
(Percent)

1985
January
February
March

-0.37
-1.59
-0.72

255.8
253.1
252.4

-0.85
-1.16
-0.48

-0.56
-0.73
-0.90

171.61
180.88
179.42

126.0

us!)

178.7

lllj

5.1

April
May
June

-0.03
0.66
0.14

257.1
252.0
242.9

0.52
-0.22
-1.00

-0.60
-0.22
-0.15

180.62
184.90
188.89

126\7

118*.8

187^2

179^8

b\6

July *
August
September

-0.03
-0.34
-0.34

240.7
239.8
238.0

-0.31
-0.26
-0.40

-0.37
-0.52
-0.42

192.54
188.31
184.06

133.4

12^9

200'.5

0)192!3

5\3

October
November
December

0.59
-0.31
-0.31

236.9
234.5
235.0

0.18
-0.49
-0.09

-0.24
-0.20
-0.18

186.18
197.45
207.26

139.4

130.1

189.2

180.2

5.3

January
February
March

0.10
-1.14
0.45

236.9
233.3
223.1

0.27
-1.02
-1.08

-0.12
-0.19
-0.44

208.19
219.37
232.33

126.9

116.5

0)2O(L7

190.1

4^5

April
May
June

2.02
0.44
-0.44

219.9
221.3
225.0

0.64
0.41
0.27

-0.55
-0.25
0.22

237.98
238.46
245.30

128'.8

118.3

194 .'2

183 \ 6

4*.8

July
August
September

0.65
r-2.54
rl.46

227.6
212.0
221.2

0.67
-3.38
2.03

0.44
-0.18
-0.52

240.18
245.00
238.27

135\9

124^3

197.6

185.3

5.0

October
November
December

1.72
1.05
-0.10

235.5
243.7
247.5

[H>2.80

0.13
rl.3O
0)1.85

237.36
245.09
0)248.61

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1986

rl.54
0.39

1987
January
February
March

5

253.0

6

265.30

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1985: series 98 (2.83) in February 1983, series 23 (289.5) in May 1984, series 16
2
(146.4) in 1st quarter 1984, series 18 (142.7) in 1st quarter 1984, and series 22 (6.7) in 3d quarter 1983.
This is a copyrighted series
3
used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
See footnote 1 on page 68.
5
6
*See footnote 1 on page 70.
Average for January 2 through 28.
Average for January 7, 14, 21, and 28.

JANUARY 1987



69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC

Q g |

PROCESS

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Continued

Minor Economic
Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins—Continued

Process

U, L,L

Timing Class

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, L,L

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

L, L, L

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

68. Labor cost

62. Index of labor cost per unit

64. Compen-

unit labor cost,

per unit of real

of output, manufacturing

sation of em-

business sector

gross domestic

15. Profits after

26. Ratio, im-

porate domes-

taxes per dollar

plicit price de-

tic profits after

of sales, manu-

flator to unit

tax with IVA

and

facturing cor-

labor cost,

34. Current

35. Constant

product, non-

nonfarm busi-

dollars

(1982) dollars

and CCAdj to

month

porations

2

corp. domestic

Corporate net cash flow

(Cents)

(1977 = 100)

bil. dol.)

percent of na-

as a percent

tional income

of trend

(Ann. rate,

bil. dol.)

Actual data

porations
(Ann. rate,

(Percent)

ployees as a

Actual data

financial cor-

ness sector

income 1

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of

81. Ratio, cor-

Year

Lg, Lg, Lg

(1977 = 100)

(Dollars)

(1977 = 100)

(Percent)

(Percent)

1985

163*. 1

0.704

138.1
137.5
137.5

87.7
86.9
86.5

73^4

369^5

164.'o

0.708

136.8
136.9
137.7

85.7
85.4
85.4

73^5

382.8

38l!(5

164^4

0.705

137.8
137.8
138.0

85.1
84.7
84.4

73^4

98^2

0)389.4

0)388!i

167.3

0.716

139.7
138.6
139.4

85.1
84.0
84.1

73.7

3.6

99.'0

374.' 3

374^2

167.0

0.721

138.1
138.6
0)140.4

82.9
82.8
83.5

73^7

4^3

98.8

374.9

374!l

168.0

0.724

138.4
139.1
138.6

82.0
82.0
81.3

r99.0

384'.3

383.8

rl69.3

0)0.727

137.8
138.2
138.1

80.4
80.3
79.9

0)7^8

P97.9

(NA)

(NA)

0>pl71.'3

(NA)

rl39.4
rl38.0
P137.7

r80.2
r79.1
P78.5

(NA)

January

7.*9

4.2

98.7

36l!6

8^2

2L7

98.9

370.8

Bili

3^7

0)99.3

7.9

3^6

8^2

February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1986
January
February
March
April
May .
June
July
August
September

8.1

October
November

(NA)

(NA)

December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

:

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
1
2

IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
Series 15 reached its high value (4.9) in 2d quarter 1984.

7
0



JANUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

1 9

Minor Economic
Process

MONEY AND CREDIT

Money

Timing Class

L, L, L

85. Change
in money
supply Ml

L,C, U

102. Change
in money
supply M2 x

L.L.L

Velocity of Money

L, L,L

Lf Lf L

104. Change
in total liquid
assets1

105. Money
supply Ml in
1982 dollars

106. Money
supply M2 in
1982 dollars

(Percent)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

Year
and
month
(Percent)

(Percent)

cr c, c
107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml1

(Ratio)

Credit Flows

C Lg, C

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M2 1

(Ratio)

L.L.L

L.L.L

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companiesl

112. Net change
in business loans1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985

0.72
0.87
0.67

513.8
518.1
518.3

2,190.7
2,203.8
2,200.3

6.881

0.51

0.91
0.31

April
May
June

0.61
1.18
1.44

0.21
0.72
1.10

0.17
0.52
0.79

519.6
524.6
530.9

2,197.3
2,208.4
2,227.1

July
August
September

0.90
1.44
1.11

0.69
0.78
0.57

0.48
0.77
0.76

534.6
541.2
546.1

October
November
December

0.44
0.96
1.05

0.36
0.49
0.59

0.59
1.00
1.03

January
February
March

0.10
0.61
1.17

0.13
0.30
0.57

April
May
June

1.21
1.95
1.23

July
August
September
October
November
December

January
February
March

0.79
1.14

1.345
1.345
1 "348

71.21
59.26
1 m i/i

53.58
21.95

6.801

1.357
1.341
1.333

86.62
66.98
73.73

14.87
27.46
-45.89

2,238.3
2,250.9
2,259.4

6.671

1.328
1.320
1.318

58.92
68.39
42.35

16.58
3.66
-14.63

546.5
548.7
552.5

2,259.2
2,257.7
2,262.8

6.590

1.323
1.322
1.332

125.47
71.12
106.55

65.16
64.68
38.89

0.59
0.49
0.36

551.1
556.7
565.6

2,258.3
2,274.1
2,296.8

6.563

1.330
1.333
1.329

-23.17
57.40
43.56

56.50
-51.02
-29.54

1.15
1.05
0.80

0.60
r0.83
rO.57

574.0
584.2
588.6

2,329.6
2,349.9
2,357.7

6.354

1.330
1.314
1.304

52.58
30.83
(NA)

-40.38
21.79
-30.85

1.38
1.72
r0.81

1.06
0.93
0.61

0.76
0.69
rO.70

596.5
605.7
r608.6

2,381.9
2,399.8
2,406.1

6.185

1.293
1.284
1.280

6.19
49.01
r-15.90

rl.15
rl.75
H>P2.37

r0.89
r0.59
pO.83

0.56
pO.73
(NA)

614.7
623.7
E>P637.O

r2,423.9
r2,431.5
B>p2,445.7

p5.970

1.273
rl.268
pi.268

r36.32
r30.66
P94.58

1.10

1 . JHO

1U1.LH

Of. QO
C D . OJ

1986

1987
January
February
March

2

2.37

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.

"The following series reached their high values before 1985: series 102 (2.79) in January 1983, series 104 (1.31) in January 1983, series
107 (6.940) in 4th quarter 1984, series 108 (1.375) in March 1984, series 33 (143.70) in September 1984, series 112 (108.61) in March 1984.
2
Average for weeks ended January 6, 13, and 20.

RCII JANUARY 1987



71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

E H

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

113. Net change
in consumer
installment
credit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding x

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Bank Reserves

Credit Difficulties

Credit Flows—Continued
L, L, L

MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued

L.L.L

110. Funds
raised by private
nonfinancial
borrowers in
credit markets
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

L,L,L

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures x ©

(Mil. dol.)

L, L, L

39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and over1
(Percent)

L.U.U

93. Free
reserves1©

(Mil. dol.)

Interest Rates

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, Lg

94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve1©

119. Federal
funds rate 1 ©

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

C Lg, Lg

114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills 1 ©

(Percent)

1985
January
February
March

75.16
82.16
99.59

13.2
10.3
13.0

512,540

1,821.0
2,409.8
3,485.8

2.20
2.19
2.40

-650
-386
-827

1,395
1,289
1,593

8.35
8.50
8.58

7.76
8.22
8.57

April
May
June

90.52
75.96
52.69

10.0
9.4
3.7

540,744

p3,279.8
p3,261.9
p2,995.6

2.38
2.25
2.33

-585
-530
-300

1,323
1,334
1,205

8.27
7.97
7.53

8.00
7.56
7.01

July
August
September

81.43
72.61
E>123.96

9.3
8.5
9.8

591,564

p2,150.5
p3,162.4
pi,925.3

2.29
2.35
2.39

-252
-246
-623

1,107
1,073
1,289

7.88
7.90
7.92

7.05
7.18
7.08

October
November
December

78.70
67.72
77.72

15.6
10.9
11.7

E>944,524

pi,824.6
p5,026.9
pi,707.8

2.26
2.32
2.32

-434
-813
-260

1,187
1,741
1,318

7.99
8.05
8.27

7.17
7.20
7.07

January
February
March

91.86
61.19
37.04

12.6
3.4
3.8

465,584

p3,590.4
p3,518.2
p2,746.6

2.27
2.29
2.41

341
213
135

770
884
761

8.14
7.86
7.48

7.04
7.03
6.59

April
May
June

58.45
77.48
64.63

3.0
8.6
3.1

(NA)
571,300

2.44
2.52
2.53

-92
-38
128

893
876
803

6.99
6.85
6.92

6.06
6.12
6.21

July
August
September

66.77
40.72
92.69

7.4
6.5
r4.4

p634,692

2.22
2.33
2.24

169
-132
-282

741
872
1,008

6.56
6.17
5.89

5.84
5.57
5.19

October
November
December

r86.50
p48.22
(NA)

rlO.l
r6.4
P15.5

(NA)
(NA)

-95
r226
p542

841
752
p827

5.85
6.04
6.91

5.18
5.35
5.49

1986

1987
January
February
March

2

6.55

3

5.46

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
'The following series reached their high values before 1985: series 111 (21.6) in June 1984, series 14 (829.2) in July 1983, series 39
(1.78) in February 1984, series 93 (-7,328) in August 1984, series 94 (8,017) in August 1984, series 119 (11.64) in August 1984, and series
114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2Average for weeks ended January 7, 14, and 21. 3Average for weeks ended January 2, 8, 15, and 22.

72



JANUARY 1987

licit

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Outstanding Debt

Interest Rates—Continued
Lg- Lg, Lg

116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
corporate

C Lg, Lg

115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury
bonds1©

bonds1©

(Percent)

(Percent)

U, Lg, Lg

117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond average1©

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

118. Secondary
market yields
onFHA
mortgages 1 ®

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans1 ©

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks 1 ©

66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

101. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)

1985
January
February
March

12.46
12.39
12.85

11.15
11.35
11.78

9.51
9.65
9.77

13.01
13.27
13.43

io!io

10.61
10.50
10.50

459,843
466,690
474,989

324,947
326,776
329,012

314,262
316,337
319,119

14.25
14.32
14.51

April
May
June

12.45
11.85
11.33

11.42
10.96
10.36

9.42
9.01
8.69

12.97
12.28
11.89

9.90

10.50
10.31
9.78

482,532
488,862
493,253

330,251
332,539
328,715

319,701
321,294
318,214

14.61
14.87
14.92

July
August
September

11.28
11.61
11.66

10.51
10.59
10.67

8.81
9.08
9.27

12.12
11.99
12.04

9.27

9.50
9.50
9.50

500,039
506,090
516,420

330,097
330,402
329,183

319,861
321,716
322,412

15.08
15.24
15.49

October
November
December

11.51
11.17
10.42

10.56
10.08
9.60

9.08
8.54
8.43

11.87
11.28
10.70

9.68

9.50
9.50
9.50

522,978
528,621
535,098

334,613
340,003
343,244

325,183
328,823
331,317

15.57
15.68
15.66

10.33
9.76
8.95

9.51
9.07
8.13

8.08
7.44
7.08

10.78
10.59
9.77

9.29

9.50
9.50
9.10

542,753
547,852
550,939

347,952
343,700
341,238

337,163
337,955
340,217

15.88
15.95
15.99

April
May
June

8.71
9.09
9.39

7.59
8.02
8.23

7.20
7.54
7.87

9.80
10.07
9.98

8.13

8.83
8.50
8.50

555,810
562,267
567,653

337,873
339,689
337,118

339,230
339,689
337,455

15.94
16.15
16.30

July
August
September

9.11
9.03
9.28

7.86
7.72
8.08

7.51
7.21
7.11

10.01
9.80
9.90

7^3

8.16
7.90
7.50

573,216
576,609
584,334

337,634
341,718
r340,393

339,672
344,127
r342,104

16.42
16.48
16.66

October
November
December

9.29
8.99
8.87

8.04
7.81
7.67

7.08
6.85
6.86

9.80
9.26
9.21

7^28

7.50
7.50
7.50

r591,542
(H>p595,560
(NA)

r343,420
r345,975
|H>p353,857

r344,453
r346,668
E)P355,278

rl6.81
H)pl6.89
(NA)

1986
January
February
March

1987
January
February
March

2

8.61

2

7.61

3

6.68

7.50

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
1
The following series reached their high values before 1985: series 116 (14.49) in June 1984, series 115 (13.00) in June 1984, series 117
(10.67) in June 1984, series 118 (15.01) in May 1984, series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984, and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984.
2
Average for weeks ended January 2, 9, 16, and 23.
3
Average for weeks ended January 2, 8, 15, and 22.

IICII

JANUARY 1987




7
3

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Q j

Year
and
month

950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,
111)

1-month
span

6-month
span

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

1-month
span

DIFFUSION INDEXES

952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62,77, 91, 95,
101, 109)

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries

962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areasx

963. Employees on
private nonagricultural
payrolls, 186
industries

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

1985
January
February
March

70.8
50.0
33.3

62.5
50.0
58.3

50.0
100.0
75.0

100.0
100.0
75.0

66.7
50.0
58.3

50.0
50.0
66.7

35.0
22.5
85.0

40.0
40.0
47.5

11.8
72.5
84.3

33.3
41.2
64.7

52.4
47.8
53.8

49.2
47.8
43.0

April
May
June

33.3
70.8
54.2

50.0
58.3
66.7

100.0
62.5
75.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

41.7
50.0
33.3

58.3
50.0
50.0

12.5
77.5
77.5

55.0
67.5
67.5

19.6
45.1
88.2

64.7
58.8
68.6

49.2
51.6
47.0

45.9
44.3
44.3

July
August
September

62.5
58.3
62.5

83.3
79.2
83.3

50.0
100.0
50.0

75.0
100.0
100.0

41.7
50.0
58.3

58.3
41.7
50.0

27.5
87.5
65.0

87.5
92.5
97.5

7.8
82.4
59.8

64.7
13.7
60.8

56.2
56.8
50.8

48.9
50.8
54.1

October
November
December

75.0
37.5
75.0

83.3
75.0
45.8

50.0
87.5
87.5

100.0
100.0
62.5

91.7
41.7
66.7

58.3
75.0
66.7

75.0
52.5
95.0

75.0
80.0
80.0

23.5
r74.5
27.5

64.7
33.3
64.7

61.9
57.6
59.5

57.0
57.0
55.9

January
February
March

62.5
50.0
62.5

62.5
45.8
50.0

75.0
75.0
50.0

100.0
75.0
75.0

75.0
50.0
83.3

50.0
66.7
r58.3

22.5
22.5
72.5

80.0
57.5
27.5

56.9
52.9
62.7

49.0
39.2
51.0

59.7
53.5
45.1

53.8
53.8
47.6

April
May
June

75.0
50.0
54.2

58.3
58.3
66.7

100.0
25.0
37.5

75.0
75.0
100.0

rO.O
58.3
33.3

33.3
33.3
33.3

45.0
45.0
45.0

60.0
30.0
40.0

25.5
74.5
56.9

56.9
58.8
69.6

54.1
49.2
46.2

45.9
45.9
48.6

July
August
September

62.5
41.7
54.2

62.5
66.7
90.9

75.0
100.0
r50.0

75.0
75.0
100.0

50.0
33.3
33.3

33.3
41.7
*50.0

42.5
90.0
57.5

r70.0
p70.0

34.3
77.5
19.6

p90.2
(NA)

54.6
54.3
54.9

49.7
r54.9
P60.5

1986

October
November
December

a

41.7
75.0
77.3

2

3

75.0
87.5
100.0

3

91.7
58.3
"37.5

r50.0
r77.5
P60.0

r68.6
p76.5
(NA)

r55.1
r61.1
P62.4

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
figures are the percent of components declining.
2
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
^Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

74



JANUARY 1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q |

Year
and
month

964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries

1-month
span

9-month
span

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

966. Industrial production, 24 industries

967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials @

968. Stock prices, 500
common stocks 1 ©

960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies2©

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

39.6
56.2
70.8

54.2
62.5
66.7

23.1
38.5
57.7

23.1
23.1
23.1

89.1
93.5
37.0

77.8
73.3
85.6

70

'54

56.2
58.3
50.0

66.7
72.9
58.3

76.9
38.5
23.1

23.1
38.5
46.2

55.4
66.7
75.6

77.8
82.2
73.3

*72

51

54.2
68.8
50.0

60.4
66.7
68.8

38.5
46.2
46.2

38.5
46.2
38.5

76.7
30.0
11.1

75.6
82.2
86.0

70

*48

41.7
70.8
58.3

75.0
70.8
60.4

42.3
23.1
57.7

53.8
53.8
53.8

55.6
88.9
86.7

88.1
92.9
90.5

70

*43

70.8
39.6
22.9

68.8
47.9
50.0

61.5
38.5
34.6

46.2
50.0
57.7

60.5

81.0
94.0

90.5
90.5
88.1

*70

p46

79.2
37.5
50.0

45.8
54.2
54.2

53.8
61.5
65.4

42.3
50.0
50.0

61.9
50.0
77.4

88.1
90.5
81.0

(NA)

(NA)

1-quarter
span

58.3
68.8

r50.0
75.0
p75.0

50.0
50.0
65.4

50.0
65.4
73.1

35.7
67.9
42.9

81.0
71.4

4-Q moving
average

(4-quarter span)

1985
January
February
March

52.9
35.3
55.9

45.6
63.2
52.9

50

April
May
June

47.1
60.3

42

61.8

64.7
54.4
50.0

July
August
September

55.9
55.9
45.6

67.6
47.1
61.8

59

57.4
50.0
35.3

52.9
47.1
52.9

53

January
February
March

55.9
44.1
42.6

41.2
44.1
47.1

36

April
May
June

61.8
32.4
64.7

41.2
66.2
47.1

24

July
August
September

50.0
38.2
70.6

r47.1
p54.4

P71

October
November
December

44.1
r51.5
p50.0

..

October
November
December
1986

r33.3
(NA)

r62.5
r56.3
P79.2

73.1
61.5
65.4

3

34.5
76.2
50.0

1987
January
February
March

3

84.6

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 74.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
^ a s e d on 46 industries through April 1985, on 45 industries through December 1985, on 43 industries through January 1986, and on 42 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on average for January 6, 13, 20, and 27.

JANUARY 1987



7
5

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q j
970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment
21 industries

Year
and
quarter

a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)

971. New orders, manufacturing'0

c. Early
projections

b. Later
projections

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade! ©

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade' ©

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

97.6
76.2
90.5
66.7

5
9
I
?

61.9
71.4
95.2
45.2

90
86
84
79

88
91
90
88

80
79
74
74

84
86
88
84

85
84
82
80

88
90
90
88

57. 1
76.
71.<
52.4

61.9
83.3
76.2
38.1

74
74
76
75

82
84
82
80

70
69
70
70

80
81
81
78

76
74
75
74

84
84
84
81

19.0
57.1
70.8
(NA)

....

90.
61.
76.
76.

61.9
76.2
64.3
59.5

....

35. 1
66. 1
42.
85. 7

47.6
69.0
47.6
66.7

76
76
74
(NA)

82
83
84
78

70
71
70
(NA)

78
81
81
78

72
73
74
(NA)

81
84
83
80

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

•)

\

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

38.1

80

78

82

....
....

Q j

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade' (u)

rear
and
quarter

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trad*

976. Selling price >, manufactoring1 ©

Actual

Voir

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

Anticipated

978. Selling prices, retail
trade 1 ©

977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade1®

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

72
76>
7E
72

72
68
70
70

70
74
74
68

64
60
59
60

6£I
66
66
6C)

66
63
66
62

65
70
67
62

59
59
58
(NA)

64
64I
62
62

60
62
66
(NA)

62
62
64
64

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

65
63
62
62

62
64
64
62

72
70
70
70

66
70
70
66

74
70
70
68

74
76
76
72

73
69
65
65

60
58
58
59

60
62
59
58

66
63
60
61

64
66
62
58

65
62
61
61

70
70
64
62

58
59
60
(NA)

59
60
59
58

62
61
62
(NA)

58
58
60
57

59
60
58
(NA)

62
65
62
59

(4-Q span)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

60
....

60

60

64

6
C

....

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated by (g), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
x
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun $
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

7
6



JANUARY

1987

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change

Diffusion index components

1986
May

October

September

August

July

June

Novemberr

DecemberP

+

+

961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS , MANUFACTURING '
(Hours)

All manufacturing industries ..

0

Percent rising of 20 components

40.7

_

(45)

40.6

0

40.6

+

(42)

(45)

40. 8
(90)

40.8

40.7

(58)

0

(50)

40.8
(78)

40.9
(60)

Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical
Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing

0

40.3
39.4

0

42.3
41.7

-

+

41.1
41.8

0

0

41.0
41.9

0

-

_

39.9
39.4

0

+
+

42. 5
41.9

41.1
41.4

+
+

41.2
41 7

41.1
42.1

+
+

40.8
38.8

40.1
40.0

+

40.3
39.8

+

40.7
39.7

0

40.4
39.7
42.2
43.0

+

41.9
42.4

41.5
41.7

:

41.2
41.6

+
+

41.4
41.7

-

0

41.3
41.6

41.2
42 6

0
0

41.2
42.6

r40.9
r42.1

0
+

40.9
42.3

0
0

40.9
42.3

+
+

41 0
39. 2

I

40.7
39.6

r41.1
r39.8

+
+

41.2
40.2

•

41.6
40.7

40.0
35.9

+

40 3
36 2

39.7
38.5

39.8
r39.1

+

39.9
38.4

0

39.9
38.2

40.9
36.6

+

41 4
36 5

41.6
36.7

0

41.5
r36.7

+
+

41.6
36.9

t

41.8
37.1

+

43.2

+
+

43 5
38 0

0

43.0

Q

+
0

43.2
38 0

0
0

43.2
38 0

r42.2
r43.7

+
0

42.6
43.7

0

41.0
42.2

+

40.0
38.3

42.2
41.3

+

r42.3
42.3

41.1
41.7

40.2
37.7

40. 2
39. 9

+

0

41.0
39.6

+
+

42.5
42.0

42.2
41.6

40.9
39.4

40.1
39.4

:

0

-

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing

0

_

+
u

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products ..
Leather and leather products

41.1
36.5
43.2
on n
oo.U

0

40.8
36.5

-

43.1

0

07

Q

07

6/ .0

+

42.0
43.4
+

41.9
44.0

0

41.9
43.5

+
+

41.3
37.7

-

40.5
37.«

+

41 .2
36 .7

964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

-

Percent rising of 34 components

+

102,730

(32)

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

-

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery

-

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

102,624

(65)

8,831
14 024

9,323
13 998

+

16,441
14,650
27,933
20,745

+

-

Q

9,060
13 993

103,845

+

+

10,245
13 702

41.6
36.8

0

41.4
r36.8

+
+

41.7
37.1

108,723

-

103,569

+

108,826

+

\

-

9,842
14,051

-

9,713
14,217

+

42.2
37.9

+

10,680
14,334

9,441
14,300

16,603
15,952

15,231
17,083

+

+

16,523
17,672

-

-

16,951
16,739

28,359
20,622

+

26,704
20,639

28,964
21,671

-

+

26,115
21,210

+
-

30,247
21,148

109,850
(50)

(52)

(44)

(71)

17,233
16,953
+

42.5
43.8

1 2

(38)

(50)

16,888
17,913
23,531
21,077

106,220

43.0
00 n
42.0
43.4

42 1
44 3

41.2
36.7

-

I
-

15,472
18,455
30,179
20,730

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.
The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.

JANUARY 1987




77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q j

S L C E DIFFUSION INDEX C M O E T : Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued
EE T D
O P NNS

1986

Diffusion index components

May

June

July

August

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

September1^

0ctoberr

November^

December^

+

+

l

(1977 = 100)

All industrial production

124.2

Percent rising of 24 components *

o

124.2

+

(50)

(38)

124.9

+

(58)

124.9

125.1

+

(33)

(69)

125.3

126.0

126.6

(62)

(56)

(79)

(NA)
147.9

(NA)
(NA)

118.1
76.8

(NA)
75.9

Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures

+
+

Clay, glass, and stone products

Fabricated metal products

+

Electrical machinery

106.5
141.3

+

Instruments

+

+

140.3
101.0

+
+

133.7
101.6

+

111.3
102.6

+

+

120.9
147.1

120.8
149.5

+

+

120.8
71.4

119.6
73.6

+

+

106.6
140.4

+

105.7
142.6

163.2
125.1

+
+

139.9
98.3

+

166.0
124.1

Transportation equipment

Miscellaneous manufactures

+

120.2
74.8

Primary metals

Nonelectrical machinery

121.6
146.2

+

122.5
148.3

+

125.0
147.7

+

124.8
149.3

119.7
73.4

+
+

121.6
74.1

+

118.2
74.2

+
o

105.9
142.6

+

107.3
140.9

+
+

108.0
142.9

166.8
125.6

+

167.2
125.1

166.9
127.7

+

167.8
125.2

141.7
97.5

+
+

142.0
98.3

141.7
97.7

+

135.1
97.1

134.3
89.8

+

+

107.5
142.6

+
+

108.1
142.9

+
+

167.9
125.7

+
+

169.7
127.8

140.2
100.1

+

141.9
99.7

+

142.8
(NA)

133.5
100.0

+

+

134.5
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

116.0
102.7

+
+

116.4
104.1

+
+

118.6
105.7

(NA)
(NA)

140.3
167.8

+

(NA)
168.6

134.2
90.4

+

(NA)
91.3

Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products

+

134.6
97.6

134.3
97.9

+

+

+

112.6
101.7

+
+

113.4
102.5

+
o

114.7
102.5

133.2
161.9

+
+

137.2
164.0

+
+

138.1
165.4

+

138.6
164.6

136.9
163.0

+
+

137.7
168.0

+

131.5
95.7

+

134.2
91.8

134.1
90.6

+
+

134.4
94.0

133.9
93.3

+

134.2
91.0

o

150.1
59.5

+

+

157.1
59.2

+
+

158.2
61.5

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
117.6

+

(NA)
130.6

(NA)
(NA)

89.3
113.0

88.6
(NA)

+
+

152.2
57.9

+
+

155.5
61.9

o
+

155.5
62.0

154.9
59.4

+

69.2
120.2

+
+

70.9
122.2

70.7
120.8

92.4
111.8

+

90.7
114.8

Mining:
Metal mining
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

72.0
124.0

+

65.9
127.3

95.1
112.4

+

93.3
114.5

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:

+

91.0
111.7

+
+

91.2
114.4

( + ) =- rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.
-

The " r " indicates revised; " p " ,

preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
x
2

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

78



JANUARY 1987

ltd*

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued

Diffusion index components

1986

May

June

967.

Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100)

August

225.0

(62)

(65)

October

September

INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS

221.3

Percent rising of 13 components ...

July

1987
January 1

December

;

227.6

212.0

221.2

235.5

(50)

+

November

(50)

(65)

(73)

+

243.7

+

247.5

+

253.0

(62)

(65)

(85)

0.429
0.946

+ 0.442
0.974

+ 0.448
0.988

Dollars

Copper s c r a p . .

...(pound).
(kilogram).

-

0.464
1.023

+ 0.466
1.027

-

0.428
0.944

-

0.416
0.917

+ 0.444
0.979

-

0.431
0.950

-

Lead scrap

...(pound).
(kilogram).

+ 0.114
0.251

+ 0.126
0.278

+ 0.130
0.287

-

0.126
0.278

+

+

0.153
0.337

+ 0.173
0.381

+

0.177
0.390

+ 0.178
0.392

. . . (U.S. ton),
(metric ton).

- 71.500
78.814

- 70.000
77.161

o 70.000
77.161

+ 74.750
82.397

- 72.600
80.027

- 71.500
78.814

- 71.000
78.263

+ 71.400
78.704

+ 75.000
82.673

+

3.430
7.562

+

3.636
8.016

+

3.795
8.366

Steel scrap

...

0.138
0.304

Tin

(pound).
(kilogram).

-

3.115
6.867

-

3.060
6.746

-

3.056
6.737

+

3.068
6.764

-

3.052
6.728

+

Zinc

(pound).
(kilogram).

+

0.354
0.780

+

0.395
0.871

+

0.430
0.948

+ 0.444
0.979

+

0.453
0.999

+ 0.481
1.060

+ 0.489
1.078

-

0.449
0.990

-

0.433
0.955

Burlap

(yard).
(meter).

+

0.240
0.262

+

0.247
0.270

-

0.242
0.265

-

0.229
0.250

-

0.220
0.241

-

0.217
0.237

+ 0.218
0.238

+

0.226
0.247

+

0.238
0.260

Cotton

...(pound).
(kilogram).

+

0.656
1.446

+ 0.669
1.475

-

0.666
1.468

-

0.267
0.589

+ 0.336
0.741

+ 0.442
0.974

+ 0.457
1.008

+ 0.542
1.195

+ 0.575
1.268

Print cloth

. . . . (yard),
(meter).

+

0.690
0.755

+

0.702
0.768

+ 0.712
0.779

-

0.700
0.766

+ 0.760
0.831

+ 0.868
0.949

+

1.035
1.132

-

+ 0.920
1.006

Wool tops

...(pound).
(kilogram).

o

3.000
6.614

+

3.200
7.055

o

3.200
7.055

+

3.275
7.220

+

3.300
7.275

+ 3.805
8.389

+

3.980
8.774

+ 4.000
8.818

o

4.000
8.818

Hides

...(pound).
(kilogram).

+ 0.786
1.733

-

0.785
1.731

-

0.784
1.728

-

0.768
1.693

-

0.745
1.642

+ 0.760
1.675

-

0.752
1.658

-

+

0.718
1.583

Rosin

....(100 pounds).
(100 kilograms).

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

3

3.138
6.918

0.904
0.989

0.717
1.581

Rubber

(pound).
(kilogram).

+

0.401
0.884

+

0.408
0.899

+ 0.434
0.957

+ 0.435
0.959

+ 0.451
0.994

+ 0.468
1.032

-

0.448
0.988

-

0.447
0.985

+ 0.459
1.012

Tallow

(pound).
(kilogram).

-

0.100
0.220

-

0.087
0.192

+ 0.097
0.214

+

+ 0.112
0.247

+

o

0.123
0.271

+ 0.142
0.313

+ 0.152
0.335

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month

directions of change are shown along with the numbers:

0.098
0.216

( + ) = rising, (o) =

0.123
0.271

unchanged, and ( - )

= falling.

The " r " indicates revised: " p "

preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1

The index is the average for January 2 through 28; component prices are averages for January 6, 13, 20, and 27.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Data beginning August 1, 1986, reflect a change in the domestic Federal price support for cotton.

JANUARY 1987




7
9

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Q |
Year
and
quarter

b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

217. Per capita
gross national
product in 1982
dollars

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars
a. Total

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME

a. Total

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

b. Difference

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

213. Final sales
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

3,670.9
3,743.8
3,799.7
3,845.6

125.1
72.9
55.9
45.9

14.9
8.2
6.1
4.9

3,444.7
3,487.1
3,507.4
3,520.4

79.6
42.4
20.3
13.0

9.8
5.0
2.3
1.5

14,582
14,730
14,778
14,795

3,359.6
3,430.0
3,446.8
3,486.4

3,909.3
3,965.0
4,030.5
4,087.7

63.7
55.7
65.5
57.2

6.8
5.8
6.8
5.8

3,547.0
3,567.6
3,603.8
3,622.3

26.6
20.6
36.2
18.5

3.1
2.3
4.1
2.1

14,874
14,928
15,041
15,080

3,523.9
3,550.2
3,603.1
3,627.5

4,149.2
4,175.6
4,240.7
p4,268.4

61.5
26.4
65.1
p27.7

6.2
2.6
6.4
p2.6

3,655.9
3,661.4
3,686.4
p3,702.4

33.6
5.5
25.0
P16.0

3.8
0.6
2.8
pi.7

15,188
15,179
15,246
pl5,275

3,616.1
3,646.3
3,686.7
p3,713.9

1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Q
Year
and
quarter

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME—Continued

^ Q
230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

225. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

231. Total in 1982
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

2.J3. Durable goods
in 1982 dollars

227. Per capita in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

2,612.7
2,646.3
2,693.8
2,729.6

2,446.9
2,460.3
2,481.9
2,493.1

10,358
10,392
10,457
10,477

2,363.8
2,416.1
2,445.6
2,487.2

2,213.8
2,246.3
2,253.3
2,271.7

321.2
321.3
331.8
340.4

311.1
319.0
318.8
326.8

2,755.4
2,842.3
2,832.0
2,882.2

2,495.7
2,550.8
2,524.7
2,540.7

10,466
10,674
10,537
10,577

2,530.9
2,576.0
2,627.1
2,667.9

2,292.3
2,311.9
2,342.0
2,351.7

347.7
354.0
373.3
362.0

332.3
338.8
357.4
347.0

2,935.1
2,978.5
2,979.9
p3,001.2

2,581.2
2,625.8
2,605.5
p2,602.3

10,723
10,886
10,776
plO,737

2,697.9
2,732.0
2,799.8
p2,819.9

2,372.7
2,408.4
2,448.0
p2,445.1

360.8
373.9
414.5
p404.2

345.4
357.1
391.6
P381.3

1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.




JANUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

R |

Year
and
quarter

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued
238. Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

237. Services in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

0 1

239. Services in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

241. Total in
1982 dollars

242. Fixed investment in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

855.7
870.3
873.9
880.3

819.7
832.8
831.7
830.5

1,186.9
1,214.5
1,239.9
1,266.5

1,083.0
1,094.6
1,102.8
1,114.4

659.5
657.5
670.3
661.1

649.3
649.7
658.9
649.9

564.0
597.6
605.8
624.4

564.1
592.7
598.3
615.9

888.2
902.3
907.4
922.6

834.3
841.3
843.8
847.2

1,294.9
1,319.7
1,346.4
1,383.2

1,125.8
1,131.8
1,140.8
1,157.5

650.6
667.1
657.4
669.5

638.2
655.6
643.8
653.2

625.2
648.0
654.3
672.6

615.0
638.1
643.1
658.4

929.7
928.4
932.8
P940.0

860.6
877.3
875.4
P876.2

1,407.4
1,429.8
1,452.4
pi,475.7

1,166.6
1,174.0
1,181.0
pi,187.6

708.3
687.3
675.8
P674.5

684.0
664.7
651.3
P638.8

664.4
672.8
680.3
P682.7

644.1
649.6
651.6
P650.3

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars

1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
• H
• S I

D

GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars

260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Total in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

95.5
59.9
64.4
36.7

85.1
57.0
60.6
33.9

693.2
733.3
743.8
763.4

650.2
678.2
681.0
691.5

283.4
315.2
317.2
329.1

271.2
296.3
295.6
303.8

409.8
418.1
426.6
434.3

379.0
381.8
385.4
387.7

25.4
19.1
3.1
-3.1

23.2

17.4
0.7
-5.2

777.3
799.0
829.7
855.6

695.3
708.3
731.8
749.4

333.7
340.9
360.9
380.9

305.8
311.4
329.9
347.2

443.5
458.1
468.8
474.7

389.5
396.9
401.9
402.2

43.8
14.5
-4.5
p-8.3

39.9
15.1
-0.3
p-11.5

836.7
860.8
874.0
P889.7

725.2
742.2
750.4
P774.1

355.7
367.6
369.3
P376.3

320.4
328.9
330.9
P353.5

480.9
493.3
504.7
P513.3

404.8
413.3
419.5
p420.6

1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.

JANUARY 1987



81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

•
Year
and
quarter

M
NATIONAL INCOME
• N i l AND ITS COMPONENTS

FOREIGN TRADE

220. National income in current

Imports of goods and services

Exports of goods and services

Net exports of goods and services

280. Compensation of

rlnllorc

250. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

25(5. Constant
(1982) dollars

252. Current
dollars

255. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate
t)il. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil dol.)

(Ann. rate
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate
bil. dol.)

employees

ooiiars

257. Constant
(1982) dollars

253. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

6
2
7
7

373
382
389
386

4
1
2
2

361.
367.
375.
375.

3
0
5
0

419. 0
445. 3
449. 1
452.2

429.
454.
461.
467.

9
2
2
7

2,963
3,010
3,052
3,102

2
3
3
0

2, 153.7
2, 195 .4
2, 234 .7
2, 275 .0

-78 8
-108.1
-113 8
-132 0

-45.6
-63.2
-60.0
-66.1

378
370
362
368

4
0
3
2

369.
361.
355.
362.

4
2
8
9

427. 9
447. 1
446. 0
473.6

448.
469.
469.
494.

2
3
6
8

3,157
3,201
3,243
3,287

0
4
4
3

2, 316 .3
2, 352 .1
2, 380 .9
2, 423 .6

374
363
370
p383

8
0
8
4

369.
359.
371.
p385

2
8
2
3

3,340.7
3,376 4
3,396 1
(NA)

2, 461 .5
2, 480 .2
2, 507 .4
P2 544 .2

-68
-87
-85
-92

1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-49.4
-77.1
-83.7
-105.3

1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-125
-153
-163
p-155

-93.7
-104.5
-108.9
p-115.6

9
9
3
6

468.
467.
479.
p499

5
5
7
0

495. 1
513. 6
534. 5
p540. 8

1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

E

9

Vpar
I cdr

and
quarter

284. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj1

282. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj'

286. Corporate
profits before tax
with IVA and
CCAdj1

Zoo.

290. Gross saving

Net interest

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol. )

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Q j SAVING

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued

292. Persona
saving

295 Business
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. r ate,
bil. dol.)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

242.
229.
234.
240.

5
6
6
7

12
8
7
5

1
4
1
6

162
171
159
165

5
7
8
0

292.
305.
316.
315.

5
2
1
7

580.7
568.7
578.2
565.5

489.0
505.0
510.0
520.3

179 .2
157 .6
172 .9
165 .0

250.
255.
249.
262.

7
5
3
1

6
8
7
8

8
1
3
3

166
?74
196
185

4
3
3
6

316.8
311. 4
309. 7
307. 6

573.2
566.8
541.7
524.1

525.6
538.9
560.1
553.5

144 .1
183 .6
119 .6
125 .8

265.
289.
277.
p283.

3
1
5
7

12
16
16
P17

8
3
2
0

196 4
>93 1
302 0
(NA)

304. 9
297. 7
292. 9
p284. 1

583.2
539.7
517.1
(NA)

562.6
559.9
566.4
(NA)

145 .6
153 .1
84 .1
p82 .3

1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
1

IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

82



JANUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q
Year
and
quarter

g j

SAVING-Continued
293. Personal
saving rate

298. Government
surplus or deficit

Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONALINCOME

(Percent)

(Percent)

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Percent)

247. Change in
business inventories

249. Residential
fixed investment

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

251. Net exports of
goods and services

1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-87.5
-93.9
-104.8
-119.9

6.9
6.0
6.4
6.0

64.4
64.5
64.4
64.7

10.6
11.0
11.1
11.5

4.8
4.9
4.8
4.7

2.6
1.6
1.7
1.0

-1.2
-1.7
-1.6
-1.7

-96.6
-155.6
-138.0
-155.1

5.2
6.5
4.2
4.4

64.7
65.0
65.2
65.3

11.3
11.6
11.4
11.6

4.7
4.8
4.8
4.9

0.6
0.5
0.1
-0.1

-1.3
-1.9
-2.1
-2.6

-125.1
-173.3
-133.3
(NA)

5.0
5.1
2.8
p2.7

65.0
65.4
66.0
p66.1

11.1
11.0
10.8
plO.7

4.9
5.2
5.2
P5.3

1.1
0.3
-0.1
p-0.2

-2.3
-2.5
-2.6
p-2.7

1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
^
Year
and
quarter

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued

Percent of GNP—Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services

Percent of national income

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
(Percent)

(Percent)

64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
andCCAdj1
(Percent)

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj1
(Percent)

287. Corporate profits
before tax with
IVA and CCAdj1

289. Net interest

(Percent)

(Percent)

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

7.7
8.4
8.3
8.6

11.2
11.2
11.2
11.3

72.7
72.9
73.2
73.3

8.2
7.6
7.7
7.8

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2

8.9
9.0
8.5
8.5

9.9
10.1
10.4
10.2

8.5
8.6
9.0
9.3

11.3
11.6
11.6
11.6

73.4
73.5
73.4
73.7

7.9
8.0
7.7
8.0

0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3

8.4
8.6
9.1
8.7

10.0
9.7
9.5
9.4

8.6
8.8
8.7
p8.8

11.6
11.8
11.9
P12.0

73.7
73.5
73.8
(NA)

7.9
8.6
8.2
(NA)

0.4
0.5
0.5
(NA)

8.9
8.7
8.9
(NA)

9.1
8.8
8.6
(NA)

1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
^VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

JANUARY 1987




8
3

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Q |
Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1982 = 100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product
311. Index

(1982 = 100)

311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Consumer price index
for all urban consumers
320. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

322. Index

(1967 = 100)

322c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1985

3.4

110.2

April
May
June

nil i

July
August
September

11L8

October
November
December

112i8

316.1
317.4
318.8

0.2

3.6
3.6
3.6

307.7
308.2
308.6

0.2

0.3
0.5

0.2
0.1

1.9
1.4
1.2

3.4

320.1
321.3
322.3

0.3
0.2
0.2

3.6
3.4
2.8

308.7
308.4
309.1

0.0
-0.1
0.2

1.0
0.9
1.4

2.5

322.8
323.5
324.5

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.9
3.6
3.8

309.2
309.6
310.7

0.0
0.1
0.4

1.6
3.1
4.0

3.6

325.5
326.6
327.4

0.4
0.6
0.4

4.1
2.9
1.6

311.1
313.2
315.2

0.1
0.7
0.6

4.4
2.7
2.2

2.1

328.4
327.5
326.0

0.3
-0.4
-0.4

0.3
-0.4
-0.2

315.9
313.8
314.1

0.2
-0.7
0.1

2.5
2.1
1.0

1.2

325.3
326.3
327.9

-0.3
0.2
0.5

-0.8
0.3
1.8

315.0
316.4
316.7

0.3
0.4
0.1

2.3
5.6
6.3

2.3

328.0
328.6
330.2

0.0
0.2
0.3

2.7
2.9
2.5

319.5
322.5
323.9

0.9
0.9
0.4

6.4
6.6
6.7

P2.3

3.7

January
February
March

330.5
330.8
331.1

0.2
0.3
0.2

325.0
326.7
327.2

0.3
0.5
0.2

110.0
3.3

110.9
2.5

111.6
3.6

112.6

1986
January
February
March

113.5

April
May
June

114.0

July
August
September

115.0

October
November
December

P115.3

2.5
11312

1.8
115\5

3.6
114^2

pl.O
P114.8

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.

Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.




JANUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

H I

330. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

330c. Change
over 1-month
spans1@

(Percent)

Producer price index, crude materials
for further processing

Producer price index, industrial commodities

Producer price index, all commodities
Year
and
month

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans' ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

335. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans' @

(Percent)

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans' ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331. Index

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1985

-0.2

-0.1
-0.3
-0.4

322.9
322.2
322.5

0.0
-0.2
0.1

0.2
0.9
1.1

320.8
315.2
311.0

-1.4
-1.7
-1.3

-10.2
-12.6
-12.8

309.3
309.8
309.2

0.2
0.2
-0.2

-0.3
-1.2
-2.0

323.8
325.3
324.8

0.4
0.5
-0.2

0.9

0.9
-0.1

307.3
305.6
303.8

-1.2
-0.6
-0.6

-10.8
-11.8
-11.2

July
August
September

309.0
307.3
305.5

-0.1
-0.6
-0.6

-0.9
-0.2
0.6

324.4
323.7
322.3

-0.1
-0.2
-0.4

0.2
-0.4
0.2

303.0
296.1
293.1

-0.3
-2.3
-1.0

-3.3
1.6
2.1

October
November
December

307.9
309.5
310.2

0.8
0.5
0.2

-0.1
-1.9
-3.4

324.2
324.7
325.1

0.6
0.2
0.1

-0.4
-2.9
-5.1

302.2
308.0
307.0

3.1
1.9
-0.3

-0.1
-6.3
-8.6

January
February
March

308.9
304.4
300.3

-0.4
-1.5
-1.3

-6.2
-6.5
-7.1

323.8
318.9
314.0

-0.4
-1.5
-1.5

-7.6
-7.9
-8.0

302.9
286.6
280.2

-1.3
-5.4
-2.2

-19.8
-19.5
-19.8

April
May
June

298.2
299.2
299.0

-0.7
0.3
-0.1

-7.3
-4.7
-1.7

311.6
311.6
311.8

-0.8
0.0
0.1

-9.2
r-6.8
-3.3

270.7
276.4
275.0

-3.4
2.1
-0.5

-17.0
r-6.8
-2.1

July
August
September

297.4
297.2
297.7

-0.5
-0.1
0.2

0.1
-0.3
-0.6

308.5
r307.9
308.8

-1.1
r-0.2
r0.3

-1.5
-1.2
-1.6

276.0
r276.7
277.3

0.4
rO.3
rO.2

8.4
4.0
1.7

October
November
December

298.3
298.7
298.1

0.2
0.1
-0.2

309.3
309.8
309.3

0.2
0.2
-0.2

281.8
281.9
277.3

1.6
0.0
-1.6

January
February
March

309.5
309.1
308.6

-0.1
-0.1

April
May
June

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:

JANUARY 1987



1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month

332. Index

Producer price index, capital equipment

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued

333. Index

(1967 = 100)

333c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

Producer price index, finished consumer goods

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

(1967 = 100)

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1985
January
February
March

320.4
319.0
318.6

0.0
-0.4
-0.1

-0.7
-0.4
-1.2

296.8
298.6
299.3

0.4
0.6
0.2

3.1
2.8
3.3

290.5
290.0
289.9

-0.2
-0.2
0.0

1.3
1.2
0.3

April
May
June

319.3
320.0
318.5

0.2
0.2
-0.5

-1.6
-1.0
-0.9

299.6
300.0
300.4

0.1
0.1
0.1

2.6
1.8
0.3

291.9
292.6
291.6

0.7
0.2
-0.3

1.4
0.8
-0.2

July
August
September

317.8
317.4
317.2

-0.2
-0.1
-0.1

-1.1
-0.9
0.9

300.7
301.3
299.7

0.1
0.2
-0.5

2.1
2.3
2.3

292.5
291.2
289.6

0.3
-0.4
-0.5

0.1
1.3
3.5

October
November
December

317.5
318.6
319.9

0.1
0.3
0.4

0.4
-2.3
-4.4

302.7
303.4
303.8

1.0
0.2
0.1

1.7
1.6
3.1

292.1
294.5
296.7

0.9
0.8
0.7

1.1
-2.3
-3.8

January
February
March

318.4
313.8
310.1

-0.5
-1.4
-1.2

-6.4
-7.6
-8.4

303.3
303.7
304.3

-0.2
0.1
0.2

1.7
1.3
1.5

294.1
287.8
284.1

-0.9
-2.1
-1.3

-6.9
-7.2
-8.4

April
May
June

307.1
306.2
306.1

-1.0
-0.3
0.0

-8.7
-6.0
-2.8

305.3
305.4
306.0

0.3
0.0
0.2

2.0
1.9
2.2

281.9
283.7
283.9

-0.8
0.6
0.1

-8.4
-3.4
0.0

July
August
September

304.2
304.2
305.8

-0.6
0.0
0.5

-1.4
-0.5
-0.1

306.3
r306.5
307.7

0.1
0.1
0.4

2.6
3.1
2.7

281.5

r282.8
284.1

-0.8
0.5
rO.5

2.2
1.2
1.1

October
November
December

304.9
305.4
305.9

-0.3
0.2
0.2

309.2
310.1
310.1

0.5
0.3
0.0

285.0
285.4
285.4

0.3
0.1
0.0

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
x

Changes are centered within the spans:




1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

JANUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1
Year
and
month

Current-dollar earnings
340. Index

(1977 = 100)

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Current-dollar compensation

Real earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341. Index

(1977 = 100)

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345. Index

(1977 = 100)

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1985
January
February
March

162.7
163.6
163.8

0.0
0.5
0.2

3.5
3.1
3.1

94.3
94.5
94.2

-0.2
0.2
-0.3

0.2
-0.3
-0.4

April
May
June

164.2
164.4
165 2

0.2
0.2
0 5

2.7
2.3
3 1

94.0
94.1
94 2

-0.2
0.0
0 2

-0.7
-0.9
0 4

173*.3

July
August
September

165.0
165.5
166.4

-0.2
0.3
0.5

2.4
2.9
3.1

93.9
94.1
94.4

-0.3
0.1
0.4

0.0
-0.3
-0.5

174.7

October
November
December

166.2
166.8
167.7

-0.1
0.4
0.6

2.9
3.3
2.6

94.0
93.9
94.0

-0.4
-0.1
0.1

-1.0
0.7
1.5

176.2

January
February
March

167.3
168.2
168.5

-0.3
0.5
0.2

2.7
2.3
1.7

93.5
94.4
95.1

-0.6
1.0
0.8

2.9
3.2
2.6

177.6

April
May
June

168.4
168.7
169.2

-0.1
0.2
0.3

1.8
1.4
1.3

95.4
95.4
95.2

0.3
0.0
-0.2

3.5
1.6
-0.2

178^5

July
August
September

168.9
169.3
169.6

-0.2
0.3
0.1

1.9
r2.6

95.1
95.1
95.0

-0.2
0.1
-0.1

r-0.1
p-0.3

October
November
December

170.0
rl70.9
P170.8

0.2
r0.5
p-0.1

95.1

0.1
rO.3
p-0.3

3.9
3.9

"!:!
4.4

3.2

3.6

1986

pi.9

r95.4
P95.1

3.1
2^8
2.2

2.4

-0.7

179.6
p3.1
pl80.9

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.

ItO

JANUARY 1987




8
7

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

E H

Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector—Continued
Year
and
month

Real compensation
346. Index

(1977 = 100)

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

348. Average
first-year
changes ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

358. Index of
output per hour,

Output per hour, all persons, business sector

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract (u)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

370. Index

(1977 = 100)

all persons,
nonfarm business sector

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1977 = 100)

1.7

104'.4

CK9

104^9

1*5

105^4

1.0

104*5

rO.O

105.6

p6*3

105^7

1985
0.6

January
February
March

97.9

April
May
June

98!o

July
August
September

98.1

October
November
December

98.0

3.6

105.7
3.5

0.3

-0.7

6*5

i'.k

2.7

3.4

0.2
0.6

0.9

2.7

0.5

106'.4
2.0

3.4

3.0
107.3

2.0

-3.2

1.4
106.4

1986
January
February
March

98*. 4

April
May
June

99*3

July
August
September

99.3

October
November
December

p99^3

1.6

i'.2

r0.6

107.3
0.7

3.9

pO.2

0.5

1.6

pi.4
r-0.2

3.3

1.2

107.4
rO.7

P2.7

rl.2

r-0.4
rlO7.3

p2.4

plO6!7

rlO5*7

p-2.3
plO5*2

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




JANUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Q j

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers

Civilian labor force
Year

441. Total

and

442. Civilian
employment

Number unemployed

448. Number
employed

nomic
reasons

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

445. Females

20 years

20 years

and over

(Thous.)

444. Males

and over

(Thous.)

Revised1

114,797
114,970
115,316

106,291
106,605
106,965

8,506
8,365
8,351

3,806
3,762
3,728

3,183
3,124
3,148

115,313
115,286
114,926

106,949
106,995
106,541

8,364
8,291
8,385

3,791
3,629
3,847

115,280
115,277
115,844

106,842
107,136
107,602

8,438
8,141
8,242

116,080
116,149
116,333

107,792
107,978
108,149

116,794
117,042
117,187

1

453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

Revised1

452. Females
20 years
and over

451. Males
20 years
and over

for eco-

month

37. Persons
unemployed

Civilian labor force participation rates

part time

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

Revised

Revised

Revised

Revised

Revised1

1,517
1,479
1,475

6,982
6,908
6,797

5,400
5,134
5,423

78.1
78.1
78.1

54.4
54.5
54.7

55.2
55.2
55.2

3,171
3,179
3,136

1,402
1,483
1,402

6,818
6,719
6,811

5,365
5,469
5,276

78.2
78.1
78.1

54.7
54.5
54.5

54.7
55.0
52.4

3,733
3,631
3,660

3,133
3,137
3,182

1,572
1,373
1,400

6,915
6,701
6,718

5,363
5,435
5,310

77.9
78.0
78.2

54.4
54.5
54.8

55.2
53.5
54.1

8,288
8,171
8,184

3,673
3,664
3,617

3,038
3,063
3,073

1,577
1,444
1,494

6,727
6,721
6,668

5,206
5,316
5,292

78.2
78.1
78.0

54.8
54.9
55.1

54.6
54.4
54.4

108,892
108,557
108,807

7,902
8,485
8,380

3,544
3,796
3,789

2,945
3,189
3,131

1,413
1,500
1,460

6,500
6,898
6,879

5,297
5,214
5,295

78.3
78.2
78.2

55.0
55.1
55.1

53.6
54.9
54.9

June

117,292
117,587
118,005

108,969
109,165
109,613

8,323
8,422
8,392

3,688
3,820
3,808

3,087
3,098
3,082

1,548
1,504
1,502

6,759
6,924
6,798

5,567
5,569
5,322

78.0
78.0
78.1

55.2
55.4
55.7

55.4
55.2
54.8

July
August
September

118,117
118,124
118,272

109,887
110,067
109,987

8,230
8,057
8,285

3,811
3,634
3,805

3,010
2,994
3,015

1,409
1,429
1,465

6,684
6,518
6,739

5,222
5,269
5,303

78.1
77.9
78.0

55.8
55.8
55.7

54.5
54.8
54.8

October

118,414
118,675
118,586

110,192
110,432
110,637

8,222
8,243
7,949

3,814
3,820
3,725

2,994
2,976
2,865

1,414
1,447
1,359

6,688
6,673
6,465

5,450
5,319
5,342

77.9
78.2
78.3

55.8
55.8
55.6

55.0
54.5
53.8

Revised

1

Revised

1

Revised

1

Revised

1

1

1

1

1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1986
January
February
March
April
May

November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 5 1 .
x

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

ito

JANUARY 1987




OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

| Q

F
ederal Government
Year
and
month

500. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Q j |

RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES

State and local government'

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

510. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

DEFENSE INDICATORS

Advance measures of defense activity

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

(Mil. dol.)

525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

548. Manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1985
January
February
March

-162!2

793.3

955.4

65^6

561.3

495^6

22,492
20,377
20,346

12,449
12,432
10,360

174,180
173,704
174,338

11,061
4,708
6,240

April
May
June

-2li!8

755.8

97CL6

59.2

57U9

51^6

22,655
25,140
29,513

9,658
14,147
11,627

174,867
178,000
179,337

6,130
8,773
11,238

July
August
September

-197.5

792'.6

990.1

59^5

584! 2

524! 7

31,641
34,470
30,753

12,163
17,579
11,702

182,074
187,278
186,401

9,594
10,270
8,106

October
November
December

-217.6

805^8

1,02^4

62.5

592! 7

530^2

28,629
25,809
30,768

10,584
10,086
14,088

185,059
182,400
183,504

6,179
6,810
7,152

January
February
March

-195!6

806.6

l,OOl!5

69.*9

608.3

538!5

26,792
29,492
32,124

13,424
9,318
14,368

185,822
188,008
190,756

10,350
7,200
10,447

April
May
June

-232.2

813^5

1,045.7

58.'9

6lil5

552^6

28,162
29,221
34,945

12,855
8,849
13,493

188,903
189,004
193,207

6,500
8,430
7,253

July
August
September

-197.4

833.1

1.03CL5

64.0

629'.1

565! i

31,541
30,323
31,371

15,992
13,088
13,413

196,185
198,635
199,295

10,157
8,332
8,838

October
November
December

(NA)

(NA)

pi,04316

(NA)

(NA)

p575*.5

27,803
p31,565
(NA)

p7,549
(NA)

198,408
pl98,337
(NA)

5,001
rlO,356
p4,615

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1
Based on national income and product ace

90



JANUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

E

[ | DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continueci
National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

557. Index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equipment
(1977 = 100)

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products, book
value

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military

(Mil. dol.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

570. Employment, defense
products industries

(Mil. dol.)

(Thous.)

Defense Department
personnel
577. Military
on active
duty (u)
(Thous.)

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment
(Thous.)

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services,
national
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
GNP

(Percent)

1985
January
February
March

163.2
164.2

166.0

23,091
23,405
23,489

134,455
132,467
131,990

18,762
20,058
20,465

6,380
6,695
6,718

1,496
1,506
1,514

2,146
2,147
2,148

1,073
1,074
1,076

248.9

6*.4

April
May
June

167.1
168.3
169.9

24,006
23,962
24,721

131,769
133,958
137,975

19,597
20,603
20,554

6,352
6,584
7,221

1,521
1,530
1,541

2,148
2,149
2,151

1,081
1,084
1,084

255^1

^4

July
August
September

170.8
173.3
174.5

25,317
25,923
26,476

140,742
143,848
144,828

21,498
22,489
21,987

6,827
7,164
7,126

1,549
1,569
1,565

2,156
2,157
2,151

1,091
1,094
1,099

265.5

6.6

October
November
December

174.8
177.2
178.5

26,587
26,598
26,270

143,336
142,288
141,497

20,908
21,847
22,443

7,671
7,858
7,943

1,572
1,581
1,580

2,151
2,153
2,150

1,099
1,098
1,100

268.0

6.6

January
February
March

178.7
176.3
176.2

26,762
26,254
27,080

144,814
144,433
147,801

20,152
21,586
23,342

7,033
7,581
7,079

1,589
1,590
1,589

2,157
2,160
2,160

1,103
1,087
1,084

266.4

6.4

April
May
June

178.0
178.0
178.4

27,565
27,754
28,117

146,968
147,912
147,201

22,101
22,921
21,954

7,333
7,486
7,964

1,594
1,598
1,576

2,150
2,150
2,143

1,081
1,072
1,060

278.4

6.7

July .
August
September

179.5
181.0
182.0

28,149
28,466
29,036

149,275
149,963
151,114

22,538
21,714
23,886

8,083
7,644
7,687

1,605
1,611
1,608

2,150
2,161
2,169

1,059
1,052
1,072

286.8

6^8

October
November
December

183.6
rl84.5
P186.2

29,221
29,025
(NA)

148,107

rl49,771
pl45,106

22,324
21,168
p22,780

8,008
r8,692
p9,280

rl,611
pi,615
(NA)

2,177
p2,180
(NA)

1,069
(NA)

p281.9

p6.6

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.

JANUARY 1987



91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Q

602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments

604. Exports of domestic
agricultural products

|

MERCHANDISE TRADE

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

612. General imports

616. Imports of automobiles and parts

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum

products

Year
and
month

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1985

19,401
17,853
18,446

2,945
2,842
2,436

4,247
3,970
4,160

28,297
27,985
28,129

4,005
3,833
3,411

4,033
4,999
4,243

June

17,779
17,414
17,438

2,624
2,215
2,218

3,970
4,073
3,952

28,295
28,685
29,425

4,936
5,237
4,842

4,350
4,073
4,932

July
August
September

17,412
17,423
17,732

2,184
2,347
2,080

3,615
3,897
3,777

26,630
26,083
31,764

3,342
3,252
4,041

4,161
4,489
5,555

October

17,368
17,976
17,024

2,351
2,446
2,426

3,694
3,918
3,730

27,594
30,285
32,888

3,811
4,367
5,079

4,198
5,461
5,758

'17,006
'17,734
'18,911

2,320
2,283
2,135

3,854
4,294
3,740

'32,005
'28,895
'31,972

4,978
4,254
3,578

5,044
5,378
5,018

1
17,964
'17,430
'19,069

2,043
1,960
1,819

3,981
3,644
3,582

'28,762
'30,272
'31,764

2,084
2,718
2,731

5,044
5,054
5,535

'17,707
'17,601
'17,518

2,062
2,231
2,111

3,585
4,091
3,812

'34,121
'29,476
'28,695

2,483
2,225
2,435

6,242
6,280
4,909

r119,328
'18,593
(NA)

2,447
2,204
(NA)

3,932
4,138
(NA)

^cois

2,155
2,788
(NA)

5,790
7,156
(NA)

January
February
March
April
May

November
December
1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

'36,187
(NA)

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.

\Not seasonally adjusted.

92



See item 7 of "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iv of the March 1986 issue.

JANUARY 1987

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Q |

GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)

Merchandise, adjusted:

Goods and services
Year
and
month

668. Exports

667. Balance

(Mil. dol.)

622. Balance

669. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

618. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

Income on investment
651. U.S. investment abroad

620. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

652. Foreign
investment in
the United States

(Mil. dol.)

1985
January
February
March

-22,832

88,040

110,872

-25,045

55,324

80,369

18,726

16,507

April
May .
June

-25,959

89,350

115,309

-30,367

53,875

84,242

22,253

16,804

July
August
September

-24,454

90,234

114,688

-31,675

52,498

84,173

24,502

16,240

October
November
December

-29,451

90,873

120,324

-37,352

52,727

90,079

24,509

15,254

January
February
March

-31,015

91,593

122,608

-36,459

53,661

90,120

24,216

17,699

April
May
June

-30,334

92,060

122,394

-35,669

55,149

90,818

22,636

17,311

July
August
September

p-32,103

p92,531

pl24,634

p-37,669

p55,318

p92,987

p22,482

pl6,973

October
November
December

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1986

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
x
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).

JANUARY 1987




9
3

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q

Year
and
month

47. United States,
index o indusf
trial production

(1977-100)

721. OECD1
European countries, index of
industrial
production

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

726. France,
index of industrial production

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

723. Canada,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

1985
January
February
March

122.7
123.2
123.4

108
110
111

143.0
143.4
141.9

110
109
110

101
105
107

106
106
108

102.8
111.5
111.7

115.2
115.5
116.8

April
May
June

123.3
123.6
123.6

110
111
111

144.9
147.4
144.9

110
111
112

104
107
104

109
108
108

107.6
108.5
111.1

116.4
117.6

July
August
September

123.4
124.4
124.3

111
111
112

147.2
145.5
144.5

114
112
112

107
107
107

107
108
110

107.3
105.8
110.6

118.8
118.7
120.0

October
November
December

123.6
124.8
125.6

112
114
110

144.8
144.2
144.6

116
116
111

107
109
104

109
110
107

106.9
110.9
106.6

119.9
119.3
121.2

January
February
March

126.2
125.3
123.6

112
113
112

144.6
145.2
144.5

113
113
113

104
107
104

109
110
110

108.0
111.0
114.5

120.3
120.3
117.1

April
May
June

124.7
124.2
124.2

115
111
114

144.6
145.1
145.3

117
112
116

110
103
108

111
109
107

116.2
108.5
113.7

120.2
117.7
116.6

July
August
September

124.9
125.1

144.9
141.3
rl46.3

117
116

rl24.9

115
114
114

109
109
109

110
110
111

110.6
105.6
rll0.8

rll8.1
rll6.3
rll6.2

October
November
December

rl25.3
rl26.0
pl26.6

pll4

P143.5
(NA)

plO9
(NA)

pllO
(NA)

pllO.3
(NA)

117.5
P116.5
(NA)

118.8

1986

(NA)

rll4
pll4
(NA)

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

94



JANUARY 1987

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q

Japan

United States
Year
and
month

320. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

738. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

CONSUMER PRICES

France

West Germany

738c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

735. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

735c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

736. Index ®

(1967 = 100)

United Kingdom

736c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1985
January
February
March

316.1
317.4
318.8

3.6
3.6
3.6

321.3
318.7
320.2

2.2
1.3
1.4

211.0
211.9
212.6

3.4
3.4
2.4

453.5
455.8
459.0

5.5
5.5
6.0

578.0
582.7
588.1

8.2
8.3
8.5

April
May
June

320.1
321.3
322.3

3.6
3.4
2.8

321.9
323.3
323.5

1.6
1.7
0.9

212.9
213.1
213.3

1.6
0.9
0.2

462.2
464.5
466.4

5.8
5.3
4.7

600.6
603.4
604.7

7.3
6.6
4.7

July
August
September

322.8
323.5
324.5

2.9
3.6
3.8

323.8
320.7
323.8

2.2
2.4
1.7

212.9
212.2
212.6

0.0
0.2
1.1

468.2
468.7
469.2

4.1
3.9
3.3

603.5
605.1
604.8

2.8
2.7
3.1

October
November
December

325.5
326.6
327.4

4.1
2.9
1.6

328.4
325.0
325.2

1.1
1.9
1.0

212.9
213.3
213.5

1.0
0.3
-0.2

470.6
471.5
472.1

2.7
1.7
1.4

605.8
607.9
608.7

4.0
3.6
3.6

January
February
March

328.4
327.5
326.0

0.3
-0.4
-0.2

325.8
324.4
323.5

-0.6
-0.2
-0.6

213.8
213.3
212.8

-0.5
-0.8
-1.3

472.6
471.7
472.9

1.6
1.1
1.3

610.0
612.2
613.0

3.2
2.8
2.0

April
May
June

325.3
326.3
327.9

-0.8
0.3
1.8

324.7
326.9
325.2

-0.6
0.4
0.4

212.6
212.6
212.9

-1.8
-1.0
-0.7

474.7
475.6
477.0

1.3
2.3
3.0

619.0
620.1
619.8

1.0
1.1
2.3

July
August
September

328.0
328.6
330.2

2.7
2.9
2.5

324.4
323.8
325.4

-1.0
-0.3
(NA)

211.9
211.4
211.7

-1.1
-1.5
(NA)

477.5
478.0
479.9

2.8
3.1
(NA)

618.0
619.9
623.0

2.8
4.2
(NA)

October
November
December

330.5
330.8
331.1

1986

325.7
324.1
(NA)

211.0
210.8
(NA)

480.9
481.4
(NA)

623.9
629.2
(NA)

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1

Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

JANUARY 1987




9
5

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q

CONSUMER PRICES—Continued

Italy
Year
and
month

737. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

Q

733c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ©

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

Canada

737c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

733. Index @

(1967 = 100)

STOCK PRICES

1985
January
February
March

736.8
744.2
749.4

10.7
11.1
10.4

341.3
343.5
344.3

5.3
4.5
4.0

186.7
196.8
195.2

839.5
851.9
900.4

195.1
202.0
213.4

294.3
307.9
317.8

578.1
585.1
592.3

147.2
164.1
165.0

293.2
293.2
295.2

April
May
June

756.1
760.6
764.4

10.0
9.4
8.5

345.7
346.5
348.3

3.4
2.9
3.6

196.5
201.1
205.5

880.3
890.6
915.0

212.5
218.7
234.2

328.9
336.4
337.2

592.0
607.0
591.3

164.4
188.7
199.0

297.8
309.2
306.5

July
August
September

766.7
768.2
771.3

7.5
6.0
7.0

349.5
350.1
350.5

3.1
3.4
4.7

209.4
204.8
200.2

941.6
915.9
915.0

234.8
237.4
253.2

321.9
316.8
312.3

568.4
597.0
605.7

212.9
229.8
246.4

314.0
318.6
297.4

October
November
December

780.6
786.1
791.6

6.2
6.2
6.2

351.7
353.1
354.7

5.2
5.0
4.6

202.5
214.8
225.5

930.9
910.7
933.9

273.6
293.2
294.9

300.4
338.9
356.3

617.4
652.0
644.5

251.1
263.9
285.2

302.2
322.8
327.8

January
February
March

795.6
801.2
804.4

5.8
6.8
5.5

356.3
357.7
358.5

4.5
4.8
2.9

226.5
238.6
252.7

936.5
964.8
1,052.8

327.1
320.8
329.6

383.6
409.9
450.2

647.8
690.0
755.0

303.8
343.9
430.2

321.2
322.7
344.3

April
May
June

806.8
809.9
813.1

5.5
5.7
4.8

359.1
360.7
361.3

3.0
3.5
3.7

258.9
259.4
266.8

1,116.7
1,144.6
1,203.9

345.8
318.7
313.8

517.4
525.9
470.6

780.6
r756.2
r764.9

512.3
580.0
485.1

347.9
352.8
348.6

July
August
September

813.1
814.7
817.1

4.0
(NA)

363.9
365.1
365.1

4.4
4.6
5.4

261.3
266.5
259.2

1,262.7
1,354.5
pi,355.4

293.2
316.3
327.2

508.1
530.0
P528.3

755.5
750.0
767.2

483.2
P541.3
P535.5

331.7
342.2
336.6

October
November
December

822.0
(NA)

258.2
266.6
270.4

pi,267.1
pi,296.3

rpl,399.9

322.1
325.2
331.9

P520.0
P532.1
rp565.8

rp751.1
rp774.6
rp780.5

P530.6
P517.0
rp488.1

343.4
344.3
346.5

P288.6

pi,432.9

P306.8

P570.0

p833.4

P324.5

P378.4

1986

366.9
368.9
369.5

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.

Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

96



JANUARY 1987

ItO

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year

Jan.

Mar.

Feb.
2 .

CHANGE IN

Apr.

MANUFACTURERS
1

May

June

UNFILLED

July

ORDERS,

Aug.

DURABLE

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

ll Q

III Q

IV Q

1.70
-0.38
-1.76
0.42
0.68
-0.92
-0.32
0.12
-0.65
0.14
-0 .44
0 .43
1 .06
0 .90

1 .10
-2.64

-0.56
-2.11

0.77
- 1 .17

0.88
1.17
-1 .61
-0.04
0 .41
0.11
0.33
0 .05
0.23
1.12
0 .99

0.92
0.64
-1.13
-0.36
0.41
-0 .56
0.16
0.13
0.45
1 .02
1.06
1.52
0 .54
0.45
0.44
-0.81
0.05
1.05
3.06

Annual

GOODS INDUSTRIES

952 . . .
953 . . .

0.59
1 .73

-0 .01
0 .42

1 .97
-0.80

2.18
- 0 . 52

0.21
-0.09

2 . 72
- 0 . 53

1 .80
-2.18

0.65
-2.25

0.85
-3 .49

-0. 6
-2.. 4

- 0 . 65
- 1 . 85

- 0 . 48
- 1 . 94

955 . . .
956. ..
957 . . .
958 . . .
959. ..
960 . . .
961 . . .
962. ..
963 . . .
964. . .
96 5 . . .
966 . . .
967 . . .
968. . .
969. ..
970. ..
971 . . .

0.78
1 .31
-0.25
-2.39
0.73
-1 .54
-0.34
0 .40
0 . 93
1 .07
1 .00

0 .62
0.23
-0.02
-1.12
1 .45
-0 .86
0.17
0.62
1 .04
0.71
1.18

1.19
0 .41
-0.87
-0.51
0 .89
-1 .24
-0.31
-0 .48
1 .36
0.78
0 .84

0.36
1 .22
-0.86
-0 .85
0.52
- 1 .07
0.18
-0.78
0 .60
0.85
0.89

0 .34
0.55
-0 .64
-0 .34
-0.40
-0.61
0.16
-0.39
0 .84
1 .13
0 .88

0 . 56
0 . 26
- 1 . 25
0 . 22
0 . 24
- 0 . 26
0 . 09
- 0 . 16
- 0 . 14
1 . 21
0 . 92

0 .81
1 .48
-1.73
0.14
-0.03
- 0 .43
0.41
0 .03
0 .00
1 .59
0.79

0.65
1 .90
-1 .70
0 .00
0.11
0.45
0.43
-0 .42
0.11
0.61
0.75

1 .47
- 0 .1 6
-1 . 1
0. 0
0.81
-O.f 3
0.04
0 ./f g
0 .06
1. 9
i.: 1

1 . 16
0 . 25
- 1 . 45
0 . 78
- 0 . 02
- 0 . 40
0 . 33
0 .1
0 .2
0. 8 3
1. 3

1. 87
0 . 07
- 1 . 44
-0 . 08
- 0 . 57
-0 . 30
0 . 57
1. 54
- 0 . 16
1. 02
1. 45

- 0 .06
0.00
0.18
- 0 .82
1.18

0 .28
0.26
0.66
-1 .07
0.88

-0 .43
1 .60
0.75
-0 .89
-0.02

0.16
0.32
2.32
-1 .27
-0.55

1 .06
-0.35
1 .08
-0.89
- 1 .27

1 . 57
- 0 . 14
- 0 . 02
- 0 . 82
- 1 . 38

0 .63
-1 .19
-0.04
-1 .00
- 0 .76

0 .36
0.74
-0.25
-1.39
-0.05

1.18
0.12
- 1 .41
- 0 .26
1 .16
0.32
0.15
0 .55
0.59
1.15
1 .42
2.38
0.31
1.18
0.78
-0.68
0.95

0.85
0.45
-2.21
0.86
0.65
-0 .38
-1 .34
1 .02
-1.21
-0.16
0.18
1.11
0 .85
1 .01

1 .01
1. 0
-0. 1
-l.: 2
0.32

1. 08
1. 00
- 0 . 06
0 . 66
0 . 53

-0.07
0 .62
0.53
-0.93
0.68

0.93
-0 .06
1 .13
-0.99
- 1 .07

0.43
0.24
0 .16
-1 .02
0 .05

973 . . .

2.78

2.83

4.11

3.46

3.40

2 . 75

1 .80

2.52

2.79

• 8

0 .4
0. 4
0.02
- 0 . 19
0 . 72
50
3 . 98

1 .50
0.05
-1 .60
0.27
0 .07
-0.51
0.31
0.72
0 .04
1 .03
1 .36
0.50
0.85
0.98
-0 .05
-0.28
0 .52

975. . .
976 . . .
977. ..
978...
979. ..
980 . . .
981 . . .
982. ..
983 . . .
984. . .
985 . . .
986 . . .

-2.47
-1 .45
1 .50
2.14
4.46
3 .46
0 .04
-0.66
4.06
4.38
3.48

-2.63
-0.15
0.48
3 .07
7.07
2 .77
0 .30
-1 .48
-0 .82
5.44
0.75

-3.08
0 . 96
0 .41
4 . 57
6.86
1 .62
-0.7 1
-1 .08
-0 .42
8.14
-2.58

-2.45
0 . 94
1 .56
4.08
5.06
0.53
1 .60
-0.57
2.11
1 .85
-2.22

-1 .68
0 .60
1.31
5 .03
2.27
- 3 .00
1 .39
-3.87
1 .28
4.06
0.25

- 2 . 23
0 .6
2 . 43
4 . 30
4 . 38
- 0 . 24
0 . 34
- 3 . 65
4 . 16
0 . 61
4 . 12

0.04
1.7 1
0 .91
3 .43
1 .43
4.01
1 .48
-2.46
3.33
4.14
1.89

-0.85
-0 .45
1 .71
4.60
1 .03
1 .84
-0.33
-4.26
2.53
1.61
2.35

-0.84
1 .00
2.02
4 . 92
2.56
2.93
0 .02
-2.68
3.22
0 .00
2.98

-1.. 4
1 A2
3 .^^8
7 .2 6
1 . '. 4
2# 2
_2 . < 5
- 1 ./
5 A5
-4.: 0
- 1 . )8

- 0 . 12
1 . 03
2 . 62
6 . 88
2 . 29
1 . 32
- 1 . 79
- 2 . 06
5 . 13
2 . 04
- 3 . 21

- 0 . 92
1. 72
4 . 29
4 . 18
2.69
3 . 96
- 2 . 96
2 . 93
1 . 89
- 2 . 63
1 . 75

0 .49
3 .24
3.74
-2.73
-0.21
0.80
3.26
6.13
2.62
-0.12
-1.07
0.94
5.99
0.55

0.79
3.20
3.93
-2.12
0.72
1.77
4.47
3 .90
-0 .90
1.11
-2.70
2.52
2.17
0.72

1.25
2 .37
4.09
-0.55
0.75
1 .55
4.32
1.67
2 .93
0.39
-3.13
3 .03
1 .92
2.41

1.66
3.44
-1.29
-0.86
1.46
3 .46
6.11
2.11
2 .60
-2.57
-0.18
4.29
- 1 .63
-1.15

-1.56
0.68
1.89
4.54
3.45
1 .81
-0.30
-1.77
2.69
2.11
0.63

6.1
-4.3
4.9
9.2
1 .5
-6.0
10.4
3.2

5.0
-3.5
6 .8
6.4
5.2
0.0
1.8
1.4

6.3
-5.2
0.0
8.5
6.7
-3.3
4.6
4.8
-4.7

2.1
3.7
-2.9
6.4
7.8
1.8
-1.9
5.0
2.6

0 .0
5 .6
4.1
5.7

4. 2
6.4
5.9
7.1

3 .5
2.7
4.8
5.9

17 .2
4.9
13.5
13.5
9.2
10.4
14.4
31.2
50.3
-6 .8
36.1
31 .7
48.5

15'.7
8.4
10.4
14.9
11 .6
11 .6
17.3
24.9
57 .3
12.5
33.8
32.9
39.5

31.

CHANGE

IN MANUFACTURING

-0.2
5.4
-3.8
7 .6
5 .1
1 .9
-5.7
5.3
9.2

-2.2
8.7
-4.6
0 .8
13.1

7 .8
2 .7
5. 1

1 .8
1 .2
6. 9

AND TRADE

1.1 .0
0.5
10.2
7 .0
32.2
43.1
17.4
20 .9
32.7
38.5

16.1
12.7
11.5
7 .7
28.9
38.8
- 8 .2
27 . 2
32.9
38.4

15.7
8.1
15.3
10.2
28.0
51 . 9
-11.9
26 . 4
34.6
63 .3

12.2
15.2
12.2
15.2
26 .7
34.7
-0.8
29.1
39.0
63.1

57.7
56.9
56 . 1
-32.8
-7.4
88.9
32. 9

43 . 5
56.8
29.3
- 1 .5
- 3 8 .6
80.1
- 2 .1

6 9.2
78.8
11 .7
18.8

38.
1952...
1953 . . .
1954...
1 955. . .
1956.. .
1957 . . .
1959...
1960...
1961 . . .
196 2 . . .
1963 . . .
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968. ..
1969...
1970 . . .
1971 . . .
1 972. . .
1973. . .
1 974. . .
1975. . .
1976 . . .
1977 . . .
1 978. . .
1979...
1980...
1981 . . .
1982. ..
1983 . . .
1984.. .
1985...
1986...

CHANGE

IN MANUFACTURERS'

2.3

6 2
9 1
-0 2

0 .5
4 .9
9 .0

1 .3
0 .5
8 .9

12.5
16.0
5.9
6.0
14.4
14.7
9.0
7 .6
26 .6
60.4
5.9
31 . 8
18.9
34.6

12.0
17.2
12.3
15.1
13.9
12 . 3
13 .2
24.8
24.0
46.7
14.5
19.6
34.1
42.5

4.8
13.8
6.9
10.1
16.5
7.7
12.5
19.4
24.0
64.7
17.0
50.1
45.8
41 . 4

5
18
0
15
13
2
15
23
62
17
24
18
52

7
6
1
3
7
1
5
3
8
1
7
2
9
9

.1
17 .0
13 . 8
8 .0
8.4
10.0
- 1 .0
18 . 8
40 . 4
54 .5
- 2 .6
25 .7
37 . 9
57 .1

7.3
2.9
5.4
11 .1
14.0
9.6
9.2
14.3
7 .1
12.3
8.3
29.7
44.6
-0.9
24.8
33.4
46.7

85.8
35.5
34.3
6.1
10.6
57 .0
3.2

34.1
23.5
33.0
-30.3
30.2
54.6
- 1 0 .6

30.5
46.7
- 1 1 .7
39.1
45.1
0.4

28
17
-22
24
39
29

9
9
.4
8
.3
6

5 9 .0
23 . 0
42 .6
23 . 8
8 .9
23 .0
27. 5

18.9
5.2

85.3
2 .0

8.7
6 .7
13.9

5 2.3
30 . 9
44.2
- 5 7 .7
7 .5
54.9
-8.6

6.6

70.0
45.7
-33.5
-30.0
53.4
28.4

5.8
5.8
4.7

16.7
- 0 .5
13.6
20.4
34.9
57 . 3
_ 3.8
30.2
29.6
40.8

12.2

1980 1 . .
1981 . . .
1982 . . .
1983. . .
1984. . .
1985...
1986 . . .

1 .5
9.1
-4.0
5 .1
9.0
3.6
-6.4
3.2
10.4

1 0. 3
20 . 5
3 .0
10 . 0
1 1 .7
12 . 8
5
.6
32 . 0
58 . 9
- 5 .7
48 . 9
26 . 4
41 .7

14.2
8.9

0.2

3 .7
- 3 .4
-0 .3
7 .3
4 .4
0 .8
6 .5
11 . 9
- 1 3 .6

4.6
5 .3
2.7

17.7
7 .1

12.5
-2.6
7 .0
3 .7
4. 5

3.7

-9. 5
14.2

5 .8
-7 .1
4 .2
7 .0
10 .7
- 2 .1
3 .5
-1 .1
0 .6

5 .9
5 .6
5 .6

10.2
12.9

2 .9
3.7

9 3
-5 0
-3 8
11 3
5.0
-8 6
3 8
3 5
-1 0

9.0
5 .4
4.7

966] ..
967 . . .
968. . .
1969...
1 970 . . .
971 . . .
1972.. .
1973. . .
1974. . .
1975. ..
1976 . . .
1977. ..
1978. . .

7 .0
2 .2
6 .5

2.4

BOOK VALUE
10.8
2.6
-0.9
5.0
8.0
5.6
4.3
-4.8
1 .9

2 .2
5 .7
- 4 .6
8 .0
6 .4
0 .9
- 1 .7
10 . 8
2 .5

5.7
19.6
-4.7
4. 5
9. 1
6.6
-16.5
0.5
9.5

-3.0
9.5
-4.2
6.6
5.7
3.0
-2.4
8.4
4.5

INVENTORIES, MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER
( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)

- 1 .40
0 .86
0.67
-0 .49

0.17
-1 .06
0.56
0 .41
-0 .09

0.10
-1 .48
1.12
0.18
-0 .43

-0 .08
-1 .05
0.38
0.9"
-0.6.

0.42
-0.98
-0.10
0 .96
0 .60
0.31
0.84
0 .94
0 .64
0 .90
0.51
-0.7 1
1 .04
0 .66
2.52
2 .84
-1 .61
-0 .24
-0.75
0.59
4.14
2.65
0.29
-2.87
-0 .04
2.81
0.65

-0.99
1 .35
-0.69
-0.36
0.21
0.32
0 .07
0.76
1.24
0.17
0.54
0.16
-0 .43
0.31
0.77
2 .33
3.25
-1.72
-0.11
0.93
1.49
3 .06
2.81
0 .07
-2.61
1.00
2.82
-0 .48

-0.58
0 .80
-1.18
-0.12
-0.21
0.58
0.32
0.66
1 .66
-0 .23
0.03
0.69
-0.17
0.05
0 .46
2 .97
2.33
-2.88
1 . 52
1 .30
2.12
3 .44
1 .89
-0.64
-1 .92
0.54
2.35
- 3 .07

-0.5/
0.3
-0.9 >
0.1

-0.6
0 .7
0 .li
0.0"
0.9"
0.1
0.0/
0.8C
- 0 .1
-0.3
0.3
2.2/
2 .7
-3.2C
0.5
1 .1
1.9*
3.98
-0.33
0.92
-1 .92
-0 .02
1 .81
-0 .94

0 .38
- 0 . 93
0.48
0 .26
-0 .24
0 .0 1
-0.67
0.23
-0.15
0.38
0.36
0.46
1 .01
0 .03
-0.15
0.81
-0.23
-0 .83
0.78
2 .60
4.04

_ 1 .88
1 .05
1 .22
2.90
1 .14
- 2.07
.03
_ 2.55
3.64
.66
- .54

2 . 86

-1.0
2.8
-5.4
8.9
5.4
7 .0
-1 .8
1.9
-2.1

-4.5
3.9
-3.8
6 .0
8.0
-0.1
-6 .8
6.1
6.8

1952 . . .
1953...
1954.. .
1955. . .
1956 . . .
957 . . .
958. . .
1959. . .
960 . . .
961 . . .
962. ..
1963. . .
964. ..

- 1 .1
2.2
-3.5
3 .2
12.7

INVENTORIE j ,
3)

\\7l

30
47
-64
36
29
8

.7
.3
.1
.6
.9
.7

.7
.2
.4
.1

45 .7
- 3 .3
-17 .2
48 .7
26 . 3
5 .3

61.2
43.7
-22.6
-25.3
74.1
19.7

44.2
32.8
-5.0
6.2
54.4
7.0

29.8
38.0
-12.0
26.6
52.2
-2.3

16 .6
9.1
10.5
11.8
5.0
6.5
16.7
39.4
58.1
6.6
26.0
32.5
57 .5
47.6
35.1
20.6
-34.6
36.7
31 .8
14.5

- 1 .34
-0.44
0 .77
0.73
-0.82
0.25
0.35
-0.06
0.41
-0 .05
0.07
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.57
-0.06
0.26
-0.37
-0.19
1.23
2.28
2.86
-0.52
0.34
0.90
2.74
1 .72
0 .63
0.19
-2.15
2.10
0.79
-0 .09

-1.35
0.16
0.99
0.27
-1.01
0.28
0.24
-0.51
0.52
0.01
0.11
0 .92
0 .83
0.23
0.59
0.59
0.10
0.21
0.40
1.13
2.74
-0 .32
0 .01
0.99
1.35
3 .44
2.07
1 .24
-1 .49
-1.39
2.30
-1 .68
0 .07

14
13
8
13
3
14
16
53
57
4
28
40
62

.0
.9
.1
.9
.7
.6
.0
.6
.6

B OOK VALUE

. 28
. 66
. 52
. 22
. 50

-0 .95
- 0 .77
0.80
1.12
-0 .91

-1.24
-0 .69
0.65
1 .04
-0 .98

-1 .84
0 .14
0.86
0 .04
-0 .58

-1 .
0 .
1 .
0.
-0 .

73
56
)7
24
33

- 1 . 08
- 0 . 18
0 . 71
0 . 22
- 0 . 92

- 1 . 25
0 . 09
1 . 20
0 . 34
- 1 . 17

-1.31
0 .85
0 .42
-0 .34

0.01
-0 .88
0 .46
0.34
-0.45

o] 1 5
50
- 0 . 45
0 . 10
-0. 1
-0. 1
0. 4
0 . 4_
1. 3
0 .5
- 0 . 50. 1
-0. 1
-1. 2
0 . 5'
2 .2
3 . 7(
- 1 . 52
0 . 95
0 . 76
3.04
3 . 05
- 1 . 10
0 . 88
- 3 . 35
2 . 09
- 0 . 22
1 . 68

0.27
0.14
-0.46
0.38
-0.19
0 .02
0.57
0.32
0.97
0 .60
-0.72
0.31
-0 .61
-0.42
0.99
1.91
3.36
-0.40
0 .70
-0 .04
2.39
1 .31
1.63
0.90
-1 .76
1.77
2.61
- 0 .46

0.15
0.11
0.20
0.80
-0.13
-0 .10
0 .42
0.16
1.14
0.68
0 .27
-0.08
-0.38
-0.05
1 .41
2 .30
3.31
-0.56
-0.50
1 .39
3 .04
3.21
-0 .22
-1.17
-2.40
2.96
-0.18
0.31

0.81
0.09
0.05
0.16
0 .30
1 .02
0.72
0.30
0 .42
0.27
0.55
-0.11
-0.09
1.29
2.62
1 .92
-0.60
0.83
1 .34
2.79
0.63
0 .48
0.83
-2.28
1 .57
-0.05
-0.11

0.
-0.
0.
0 .
0 .
1.
0 .
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0 .
0.
0.
2.
-0.
0.
0 .
1.
2.
2.
1 .
-2.
-1 .
3.
-2.
-0.

30
58
37
31
36
19
34
37
29
54
>7
28
32
38
31
38
34
75
23
8

0 . 31
- 0 . 26
0 . 33
-0.01
- 0 . 05
0 . 85
0 . 61
0 . 24
0 . 59
0 . 55
- 0 . 32
0 . 51
0 . 30
1 . 42
2 . 54
0 . 11
0 . 46
1 . 70
0 . 67
4 . 12
2 . 25
0 . 85
- 1 . 64
- 1 . 72
1 . 96
- 1 . 56
- 1 . 28

- 0 . 08
- 0 . 68
1 . 17
0 . 03
0 . 02
0 . 71
1 . 04
0 . 08
0 . 88
0 . 68
-0 . 04
0 . 41
0 . 58
1. 09
2 . 86
- 0 . 68
- 0 . 47
0 . 53
2 . 15
3.43
1 . 33
1 . 38
- 0 . 50
- 1 . 16
1 . 91
- 1 . 06
1 . 83

0.86
-0.95
-0.19
0.32
0.50
0.23
0.75
1 .28
0.19
0.49
0.45
-0.44
0.47
0 .63
2.61
2.81
-2.07
0.39
0.49
1 .40
3.55
2.45
-0 .09
-2.47
0 .50
2 .66
-0.97

0 .30
-0.69
0.15
-0 .33
0 .34
0 .37
0.32
1.12
0.25
-0.23
0.60
-0.16
-0.83
0.54
2.38
3.49
-2 .20
0.85
1 .04
2.63
2.72
-1.17
0.94
-2.61
0.90
1 .08
-0 .27

-0
-0
0
-0
-0

5.5
4.4
6.0
9.4
15.9
8.0
10.9
13.6
8.2
10.2
14.2
31 .3
52.6
2.8
30.2
32.6
48.1
51.8
42 .6
33.8
-18.5
11.1
53.2
9.7

54
+8

34
29
32
+3

34

-0.62
0.77
0.44
-0.65
~0'44
-0.5 5
0.22
-0 .01
0.26
0 .55
0.58
0.86
0.40
0.20
0.35
-0.19
-0.04
0.88
2.50
2 .21
-1.19
0.64
0.94
2.55
2.52
0.79
-0.11
-2.15
1.45
0.71
-0.31

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.




97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.
39.

1952.
1953 .
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957 .
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961 .
1962.
1963 .
1964.
1965.
1966 .
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975 .
1976.
1977 .
1978.
1979.
1980 .
1981.
1982.
1983 .
1984.
1985.
1986.

2.03
1 .87
2.05
1.61
1.52
1.50
1 .57
1.56
1.71
1 .81
1.69
1.59
1 .69

2.59
2.49
2.37
2.42
2.12
2.37
2.42
2.48
2.24
1.84
2.20

1.91
1 .83
2.07
1.62
1.46
1.50
1.63
1.55
1.60
1 .84
1.69
1 .60
1.68
1 .79
1.75
1 .86
1.57
1.57
1 .83
1.81
1.72
2.01
2.54
2.71
2.46
2.37
2.48

2.05
1 .90
1 .98
1 .53
1 .53
1.57
1.76
1.52
1.60
1 .81
1 .69
1 .64
1 .66

2.32
2.51
2.39
2.23
1.78
2.19

2.53

65.
1952 .
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966 .
1967.
1968.
1969.
1 970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.

12.48
12.45
13 . 6 2
13.55
14.20
16.35
16.90
16.34
17.33
18.57
18.99
20 . 0 5
20.76
21.74
22.75
25.51
27 . 2 2
28.78
31.53
34.49
34.86
35.72
38.87
49.08
50.20
55.73
60.67
66.37
74.39
80 . 2 3
89.66
84.37
81.16
89.69

78.
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961 . . .
1962. . .
1963.. .
1964...
1965. . .
1966...
1967. . .
1968.. .
196 9 . . .
1970. . .
1971 . . .
1972.. .
1973. . .
1974. . .
197 5 . . .
1976 . . .
197 7 . . .
1978. . .
197 9 . . .
1980...
1981 . . .
1982. . .
1983. . .
1984. . .
1985. . .
1986. . .

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug. Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

I Q

12.55
12.40
13.64
13.61
14.39
16 .40
16.83
16.40
17 .56
18.69
18.96
20.07
20.87
21.78
22 .87
25.74
27 . 2 5
29.05
31 . 8 5
34.60
34.94
35.82
39.37
49.37
50.67
55.97
60.69
67.16
75.23
81 .26
90.09
83.74
81.90
89.86

MANUFACTURERS'

2.01
2.56
2.74
2.34
2.40
2 .44

2.65
2.41
2.43
2.28

2.25
1 .82
1 .91
1 .50
1 .51
1 .52
1.75
1.43
1 .68
1 .79
1 .65
1 .68
1.63
1.76
1 .76
1.72
1 .56
1 .64
1 .79
1 .78
1 .85
1 .99
2 .61
2 .63
2.40
2.38
2.44

2.53
2.40
2 .20
2.07
2.06
2.38

2.64
2.40
2.21
2.00
1 .96
2.25

2.74
2.30
2.16
1.92
2.02
2 .33

.75
.99
.55
.54
.47
.70
.50
.64
.85
.67
.59
.59

2.08
1.88
1 .

.6
1 .57
1 .68

.75
.87

2 .94
2.45
2.37
2.51

.99
.97
.81
.47
.54
.54

2 .60
2.39
2 .41
2.42

2.14
2.01
.83
.44
.53
.48
.75
.52
.70
.80
.61
.67
.7 1
.82
.76
.64
.55
.68
.87
.75
.93
.02
.63
.65
.39
.34
.37

1 .92
1 .98
1 .65
1 .50
1 . 52
1 .57
1 .55
1 .65
1 .76
1 .68
1 .64
1 .76
1 .70
1 .65
1.74
1.69
1 .63
1 .76
1 .90
1 .72
1 .96
2 .27
2.80
2 .47
2 .40
2 .36
2 .45
2.64
2.57
2.37
2.18
1 . 94
2.09
2.32

2.05
1 .90
1 .98
1 .53
1 .53
1 .57
1 .76
1 .52
1 .60
1 .81
1 .69
1 .64
1 .66

2.77
2.22
2.19
1.95
1.96
2.29

.94
.35
.21
.90
.93
2.35

.70
.28
.19
.88
.10
2.39

.49
.51
.50
.71
.36
.73
.83
.61
.68
.63

42

IV Q

II Q

PERCENT OF CONSUMER INSTALLMENT LOANS DELINQUENT 30 DAYS AND OVER
(PERCENT)

END OF PERIOD
.99
.97

2.02
1 .79
1 .44
1 .49
1.55
1 .60
1 .75

.51
.60
.67
.79
.70
.61
.65
.71
.81
.77
.67
.48
.68
.85
.90
.00
.11
.65
.48
.53
.41
.35
.45
.53
.37
.24
.91
.91
.26

2 .24
2 .34
2.50
2 .66
2 .42
2.23
1 .86
1 .97
2.32

.94
.45

2.24
2 .22

2.25
1 .82
1.91
1 . 50
1.51
1 .52
1.75
1 .43
1 .68
1.79
1 .65
1 .68
1 .63
1 .76
1 .76
1 .72
1 .56
1 .64
1 .7 9
1 .78
1 .85
1 .99
2 .61
2.63
2 .40
2.38
2 .44
2 .45
2.74
2.30
2.16
1 .92
2 .02
2.33

MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES, FINISHED GOODS, BOOK VALUE
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
12.64
12.41
13.71
13.65
14.48
16.52
16.82
16.46
17 . 7 3
18.63
19.03
20.04
20.96
21.83
23 . 0 3
25.88
27 . 3 1
29.30
32.05
34.82
35.15
36.16
40 .00
49.68
51.09
56 . 1 3
61 . 0 0
67.36
76.34
82.92
90.2 8
82.68
83 . 1 4
90.12

12.57
12.47
13.56
13.60
14.59
16 .56
16.68
16.54
17 . 9 1
18.7 5
19.04
19 .96
21.07
21.63
23 . 0 8
26.20
27 . 3 2
29.59
32.69
34.64
35.34
36 . 2 1
40 . 5 9
49.54
51 . 4 4
56.33
61.45
68.34
78.11
83 .26
89.58
82.32
84.14
90.12

12.33
12.66
13.46
13.62
14.82
16.72
16.58
16.59
18.11
18.72
19.27
20.07
21.14
21.74
23.32
26.41
27 .46
29.95
32.71
34.66
35.53
36.60
40.9 9
49.43
51 .76
57 .27
61 .90
68.71
79.10
84.77
88.47
82.06
85 . 1 1
90.13

12.34
12.80
13.47
13.62
15.24
16.78
16.52
16.48
18.21
18.76
1 9.44
20.29
21.10
21.87
23 . 5 8
26.43
27 .57
30.14
32.98
34.65
35.82
36.95
41 . 7 1
49.30
52.62
57.64
62.28
69.44
79.42
85.38
87.60
81.86
86 . 3 8
89.87

12.31
12.93
13.45
13.61
15.42
16.89
16.52
16.63
18.37
18.70
19.63
20.21
21.19
22.04
23 .83
26.51
27 . 6 4
30.30
33.24
34.38
35.83
37.04
42.71
48.98
53 .16
58.05
62.62
70.02
79.81
85.35
88.04
82.14
86 . 9 5
89.26

12.35
13.14
13 .32
13.72
15.71
16.92
16.36
16.83
18.39
18.84
19.76
20 .36
21 . 1 9
22.01
24.00
26.71
27.89
30.51
33.44
34.53
36.36
36.93
43.6 5
49.28
53.79
58.09
63 . 3 4
70.30
79.86
86.55
87 .60
81 .70
87 .80

Annual

1 .99
1 .97
1 .81
1 .47
1 .54
1 .54
1 .63
1 .56
1.7 1
1 .76
1 .63
1 .73
1 .65

.52
.57

.64
.76
.70
1.65
1.7 4
1 .69
1 .63
1 .76
1 .90
1 .72
1 . 96
2 .27
2 .80
.47
2 .40
.36
2.45
2.64
.57
2.37
2.18
1 .94
2.09
2.32

.70
.28
.19

1 .92
1 .98
1 .65
1.50
1 .52
1 .57
1.55
1.65
1 .76
1.68
1 .64
1 .76
1.70
1 .65
1.74
1 .69
1 .63
1 .76
1 .90
1 .72
1 . 96
2.27
2 .80
2.hi
2.40
2.36
2.45
2.64
2.57
2.37
2.18
1 . 94
2.09
2 .32

END OF PERIOD

12.36
13.31
13.28
13.75
15.96

12.33
13.47
13.32
13.82
16.02

12.32
13.57
13.28
13.88
16.21

12.33
13.62
13 .46
14.01
16.19

12.64
12.41
13.71
13.65
14.48

16.18
16.84
18.66
18.70
19.88
20 .50
21 . 1 8
22.15
24.31
26.81
28.18
30 .70
33.65
34.74
36.19
37.17
44.62
49.63
54.45
58.47
63 . 4 5
71 . 0 9
79.51
87 . 88
87 .27
81 . 4 5
88.55

16.15
16.85
18.60
18.94
19.98
20 . 5 4
21 .43
22.25
24.52
26 . 8 4
28.33
30.74
33.98
35.11
35.96
37.38
45.65
49.81
55.45
59.31
63.63
71 . 2 9
79.33
88.91
86 .93
81 .20

16.30
16 .96
18.58
18.96
19 .97
20.66
21 . 5 0
22 .40
24.88
26 .91
28.51
31 . 0 8
34.24
35.01
35.95
37 . 6 4
46 .96
49.98
55.13
59.86
64.50
71 . 56
79.83
89.64
85.81
81 . 5 5
89.27

16.35
17.10
18.64
18.81
20.12
20.74
21 . 6 2
22 . 5 4
25.19
27 .07
28.77
31 . 2 6

16 . 8 2
16.46
17.73
18.63
19.03
20 . 0 4
20.96
2 1.83
23 . 0 3
25.88
27 . 3 1
29.30

34.90
35.93
38.21
48.16
50 .27
55.54
59.94
65.40
72.97
80 . 2 2
89.7 8
85.17
80 . 9 6
89.69

34.82

40.00
.68
51 . 0 9
56.13
61 . 0 0
67 . 3 6
76.34
82 . 9 2
90 . 2 8
82 .68
83 . 1 4

12.34
12.80
13.47
13.62
15.24
16.78
16.52
16.48
18.21
18.76
19.44
20.29
21 .10
2 1 .87
23.58
26.43
27 .57
30.14

12.36
13.31
13.28
13.75
15.96
16.88
16.18
16.84
1 8.66
18.70
19.88
20.50
21.18
22.15
24.31
26 .81
28.18
30 . 70

34.65
35 .82
36.95
41 . 7 1
49.30
52.62
57 . 6 4
62.28
69.44
7 9.42
85.38
87 . 6 0
81 .86
86 . 3 8

34.74
36.19
37.17
44.62
49.63
54.45
58.47
63 . 4 5
71.09
7 9.51
87 . 8 8
87 .27
81 . 4 5
88.55

INVENTORIES, MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER. BOOK VALUE
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

.33
.62
.46
.01
.19
17.10
.64
18.81
20.12
20.74
21.62
22 . 54
25.19
27 .07
28.77
31.26
34.20
3 4 . 90
35 .93
38.21
48.16
50.27
55.54
59.94
65 .72 . 97
80.:

12.33
13.62
13 .46
14.01
16.19
16.7 5
16.35
17.10
18.64
18.81
20.12
20.74
21.62
22 . 54
25.19
27 .07
28.77
31 .26
34.20
34.90
35.93
38.21
4 8 . 16
50.27
55.54
59.94
65 .40
72.97
80 . 2 2
89.78
85.17
80 . 96
89.69
88.37

END OF PERIOD

51.59

51 . 7 6

51.86

51.78

52.16

51.88

50 . 9 3

45.04

43 .7 9

37.21
46 . 2 4
50.35
40.55
40.18
44.04
38.32
42.05
41.55
44.31
51 .40
58.43

37.77
46.6 5
50.27
39.56
41.54
43.36
37.95
42.26
41 .87
44.38
52.17
59.66

38.90
46.83
49.83
38.98
42.34
42.17
37.83
42.06
42.45
44.71
52.83
61 . 3 2

39.28
47 .80
49.22
38.44

39.76
48.06
48.97
38.05

40 . 2 8
47 . 8 4
48.47
38.20

41 . 0 9
48.97
47.55
38.47

41 . 7 4
50.01
46 . 57

42.59
50.05
4 5 . 99

43.66
50.29
45.06

44.37
50.51
44.14

45.57
50.85
42.97

3 8.90
46.83
49.83

40 .28
47 .84
48.47

42.59
50.05
45.99

4 5 . 57
50.85
4 2 . 97

45.57
50.85
42 .97

41 . 2 2
37.96
41.42
43 . 2 4
44.96
52.90
62.29

39.35
39.58
40 . 9 2
44.04
49.01

39.10
39.92
40.91
43 . 98
49.86

38.42
41 . 0 9
40 . 9 4
44.00
50.56

42 . 17
37.83
42 .06
42 . 4 5
44.7 1

40 . 10
38.29
41 .07
43 .46
45.81

39.93
39.51
40 .91
43 . 6 8
47 . 8 2

45.03
38.42
41 .09
40 . 94
44.00
50.56

45.03
38.42
41 . 0 9
40 . 94
44.00
50.56

74.01
76.26
77 . 8 2
78.28

74.04
77 . 0 6
77 . 6 8
77.91

39.64
38.66
40.89
43 . 4 8
46 .3 8
54.11
65.63
69.69
72 . 6 0

39.93
39.51
40 . 9 1
43 .6 8
47 . 8 2

73.98
75.58
77 . 9 9
78.22

40 . 1 0
38.29
41.07
43.46
45.81
53.79
64.66
69.09
73 . 3 2

39.84
3 9.46
40 . 7 6
43.38
46.80

73.44
75.42
78.42
77.91

40.5 5
38.19
41 . 2 6
43.6 2
45.33
53.36
63.29
68.57
73 . 9 0

66 .77
70.38
72.88

67 .07
70.79
73.15

67 . 4 4
7 1.08
73.68

67.68
7 1.67
74.23

67 .76
72.54
74.91

61.32
68.35
74.01

64.66
69.09
73.32

67 .07
70.79
73.15

67.76
7 2 . 54
74.91

89.56
119.85
141.91
128.93
136.12
148.81
183.02
211 . 7 2
218.80
214.28
191.29
211 . 5 4
217.95

91 . 8 8
123.10
140.20
128.82
137.05
150.30
186 . 0 8
214.52
218.87
211 . 6 7
192.29
214.36
217.47

94.85
125.43
137.31
130.33
138.35
152.42
189.52
216.41
218.23
209.75
192 .83
216 .71
214.40

97 .09
128.15
134.11
130.88
139.50
154.38
193.50
216.08
219.15
207.83
192 .81
218.52
213.46

77.45
77 .07
79.42
99.69
132.19
132.22
131 .93
140.7 1
157 .28
194.64
214.01
220.18
205.28
193.45
220.18
211 .93

77.34
75.79
79.96
101 .98
135.89
130.70
132.88

76.72
75.37
80.94
103 .89
139.24
130.30
133.58

76 .34
75.31
82 .36
106.19
142.55
129.75
133.07

76.24
75.22
83 .65
108.81
144.47
129.14
133.90

75 .96
75.55
84. 52
111.62
144.10
129.18
134.65

76 .46
75.85
85.95
114.15
144.21
129.64
136.35

76 .87
76.43
87 .03
117.01
143.52
129.17
136.87

77.82
7 8.28
78.32
94.85
125 .43
137.31
130.33

77.34
75.7 9
79.96
101.98
135.89
130.70
132.88

76 .24
75.22
83 .65
108.81
144.47
129.14
133.90

76 .87
76 .43
87 .03
117.01
143 .52
129.17
136.87

67 .76
72.54
74.91
79.14
76.87
7 6 . 43
87.03
117.01
143.52
129.17
136 .87

160 .32
197.69
212.91
221 .06
201.94
195.54
219.97
213.61

162.7 1
199.00
214.54
221 .96
200.17
197.31
222.58
213.15

165.75
202 . 2 1
214.32
220.79
197.78
200 .27
222.40
213.46

168.54
202.84
214.80
221.62
195.50
201 .84
222.35
213.35

171 .32
205.48
216.28
219.28
194.20
204.86
219.92
213.69

207.74
217.13
217 .64
192.48
206.82
218.36
212.41

209.07
218.51
217.14
191 .32
208.73
217.30
214.24

189.52
216.41
218.23
209.7 5
192.83
216.71
214.40

1 97.69
212.91
221 .06
201.94
195.54
219.97
213.61

202 .84
214.80
221 .62
195.50
201.84
222 .35
213.35

209.07
218.51
217 .14
191.32
208.73
217.30
214.24

209 .07
218.51
217.14
191 . 3 2
208.73
217.30
214.24

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted f o r the convenience of the user.




C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

723
-640
836
369
-255
116
122
-59
-375
696
555
375
175
106
-44
-16
144
-480

-799
-91
153
-823
-808
-454
130
433
-176
-692
-999
-1 ,028
-1,101
46
-102
-650

330
-672
339
270
-267
-126
324
-48
-365
517
434
301
89
36
-107
-4
38
-596
-819
-127
91
-1 , 3 8 8
-997
85
-62
-114
-272
-764
-1,465
-1,023
-1,414
-122
376
-386

578
-614
503
122

-409
-316
495
-140
-219
486
382
269
99
-75
-246
236
-315
-701
-781
-120
134
-1 ,563
-1,176
160
378
155
-38
-742
-2,638
- 7 19
-1,254
-415
-241
-827

94.

July

May June
93. FREE RESERVES
(MILLIONS OF DOLL/

Aug.

Sept.

65
-353
561
212
-504
-444
547
-319
-33
453

130
365
711
168
-195
-508
484
-513
37
549

-468
366
770
92
-139
-383
547
-556
120
530

-383
-7
725
-189
-339
-47 1
3 82
-536
2 47
537

313
167
-105
-268
175
-413
-844
-704
-8
27
-1 , 5 6 4
-1,556
10
45
-62
-475
-899
-2 , 2 6 1
-1,136
-1 , 3 0 7
-517
-742
-585

247
82
-180
-352
26 9

138
120
-182
-352
297

161
135
-174
-362
272

1 , 102
-795
-18
-15
1,668
- 2 386
-61
261
72
-975
1,490
-835
1,968
-745
-453

-1,064
-701
-322
110
-1,730
-2,869
in
-3
-149
-974
-1,17 5
-169
-1,700
-895
-1,234
-300

Nov.

Dec.

I Q

-1 ,074
-1,217
-658
-55
-1,708
-3,131
-293
-53
12
- 1 , 1 46
-989
-111
-1,335
-378
-875
-252

95
250
708
-286
-214
-46 6
95

-400
390
638
-359
-195
-344
96

414
547

442

133
83
-134
-390
298

-144
-368
268

94
106
-146
-431
160

-946
-682
-606
-183
-1,897
-3,173
6
193
-872
-885
-904
-357
-1,122
-199
-1,127

-831
-335
-295
-352
-1,624
-3,096
-197
212
-443
-993
-1,339
-1,055
-1,035
-592
-943

-992
-208
-153
-327
-1,267
-1 ,702
-35
123
-980
-1 ,049
-1 ,750
-1,018
-871
-51
-332

-292
-1,195
- 1 ,027
229
2 80
-705
-417
-1,751
-1,201
-348
-177
-383

-623

-434

-813

683
46 8
67
849
792
988
47 6
903
225
37

1 ,048
362
82
884
715
81 1
425
905
149

-246

-875
198
650
-492
-154
-293

365
1,310
293
354
799
6 40
242
508
816
137
68

307
1 ,202
189
46 3
993
834
138
601
635
70
91

256
299
40 2
389

304
40 5

213
47 1
626

362

259
416
551
199

697
965
370
20
1,164
1,0 44
3 90
79
61
481
994
1,241
1 ,386
1,526
500
715
1,395

824
1,092
328
33
1 , 593
1,186
147
76
79
405
973
1 ,655
1 ,301
1 ,713
557
567
1,289

918
896
319
99
1 ,858
1,352
106
58
110
344
999
2,824
994
1,611
852
952
1,593

367
1,166
139

563
944
155
368
971
909
119
767
502
96
63

579
423
146
401
769
1 ,005
142
921
425
63
100

527
738
917
109
956
388
51
89

134

255
505
722
101

270
528
674
123

265
524
766
87

996
822
148
109
1,721
1,714
110
44
73
539
897
2,455
1 ,338
1,581
993
1 ,234
1,323

1,402
976
330
119
1 ,786
2 , 5 80
60
121
200
1,227
1,777
1,018
2,220
1,105
902
2,988
1,334

1 ,407
888
453
94
1 ,788
3,000
271
120
262
1,111
1,396
3 80
2 ,039
1,205
1 ,714
3,300
1,205

1,190
1,358
820
202
2,050
3,308
261
123
336
1 ,286
1,179
395
1 ,679
669
1,382
5,924
1,107

495
1 ,060
1,011
130
676
602
56
69

159
-206
633
158
-411
-485
508

-252
203
734
-128
-231
-440
341

-71 5
2 80
582
-365
-128
-257
25

-66
-91
627
-20
-270
-323
297

-63
518
424
233
123
-156
-324
247
-360
-1 ,003
-7 3 3
-116
41
-1 ,654
-2,270
75
101
-46
-808
-1,188
-1 ,088
- 1 ,601
-982
-735
- 1 ,892
-472

260
538
418
128
102
-151
-373
279
-183
-950
-745
-520
-197
- 1 ,7 43
-3,133
-161
1 17
-434
-1 ,008
- 1 ,077
-508
-1,164
-390
-982
-6,418
-374

588
459
387
1 12
80
-77
-273
17 9
-241
-936
-187
-80
-483
-1,166
-1 ,031
1 10
171
- 6 90
-738
-1,527
- 1 , 269
-516
-142
-300
-3 ,885
-502

116
520
421
197
107
-90
-276
194
-207
-87 1
-616
-207
-128
-1 ,455
- 1 ,857
-1 1
134
-253
-679
-1 ,131
- 1 , 141
-1 ,051
-692
-545
-3,046
-492

614
517

669
419

33
-34

209
168

-320
566
457
315
121

-222
270

-165
107
-310
-829
-49
58
-830
-1 ,036
-364
135
1 10
-384
-749
- 1 ,07 9
-1,587
-330
-197
-184
-2,333
-260

-132
72
-44
-592
-800
-113
126
-1 ,258
-994
-70
149
158
- 1 62
-733
-1 ,701
-923
-1,256
-164
11
-621

294
1 ,286
1 94
377
866
627
111
555
785
85
76
142
273
373
477
317

-305
-144

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1 ,032
651
11 5
765
898

65

1 ,005
252
1 ,008
293
67
127
334
564
728
89
56 5
1,249
827
804
43 8
2 , 144
3,351
211
104
1 ,071
1 ,147
1 ,097
659
1,417
510
1,573
8,017
1,073

331
528
766
90
515
1,067
607
501
514
1 ,86
3,28
39i
7
63
1 ,068
1,344
1,311
1,451
'76

41

142
105
119

1 ,593
441
246
839
688
710
557
906
87
149
304

309
490
733
126

430
452
611
133

243
454
557
238

1 ,135
46 2

2,022
1,335
1,149
455
837
6 ,017
1,187

1 ,241
425
407
606
1,399
1,285
61
84
8 40
722
1 ,906
2,156
695
57 9
912
4,617
1 ,741

1,086
321
107
1 ,049
1 ,298
703
127
62
558
874
1 ,47 3
1 ,617
642
697
745
3 , 186
1,318

813
984
339
51
1 ,538
1 ,194
214
71
83
410
989
1 , 907
1 ,227
1,617
636
745
1 ,426

3.98
4.83
4.49
h6 . 65
7.78
3 .61
46 . 17
46.48
41.93
45.01
47 . 4 8
52.74
65.32
79.56
94.37
100.83
106 . 7 9
109.36
103.62
103.16
120.33
159.52
177 . 8 2
162.54
174.25
200.22
261 . 0 1
297 . 1 6
312.99
306.92
291 . 0 4
329.94
349.67

5.9
4.0
2.0
7 .8
58.1
2.7
• 7 .06
f5.23
fl.63
^.53
48.84
53.52
66.17
81.99
93 . 9 4
102.43
107 . 5 4
108.46
103.60
103.59
124.44
162.72
174.75
163.49
174.66
204.79
267.87
298.77
312.27
305.85
290.62
338.09

347.10

8.13
3.51
0.17
8.20
9.41
1 .88

68.34
73 . 4 2
48.38
48.54
59.96
61.24

7.58
44.16
41 . 8 1
43.7 5
49.45
54.37
67.06
83.74
94.10
102.75
109.86
107.19
103.05
103 . 9 4
127.91
165.94
172.30
164.44
176.22
208.87
272.93
299.30
313.87
305.28
292 . 7 3
339.93
344.87

47 . 18
43.5 5
41 . 9 6
43 . 3 6
50.29
55.50
67 . 9 4
85.25
95.16
102.40
110 . 9 3
106.30
101.78
104.98
131 . 3 1
170.86
170.61
165 . 0 3
177.53
213.90
275.20
296 . 3 0
315.26
301.41
294.01
343.99
345.13

71 .06
72.89
46 .7 1
49.10
60.22
59.99
47 . 4 2
43.2 9
42.05
43 . 2 0
50.15
56.71
68.86
87.40
96.74
102.26
110.91
105.48
100.40
105 . 9 8
134.06
174.53
168.38
165.64
179.96
218.20
279.57
296 .07
315.60
297.76
298.17
344.60
349.25

931
512

503
844
147
421
933
975
130
788
510
72
77
189
246
501
674
119
707
1 ,268
895
310
107
1 ,765
2,431
147
95
178
959
1 ,357
1 ,284
1 ,866
1 ,297
1 ,203
2 , 507
1 ,287

65

164
1,016
744

96. MANUFACTURERS' UNFILLED ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
3 .99
4.41
6.18
6 .0
7 .5
3 .6
5.9
4.7
7 .3
1.
4.3 8
6 .44
52.03
4.15
7.72
'4.10
100.58
106 . 1 3
110.43
102.74
102.49
117.50
155.77
180.46
162.69
173 .77
197.14
253.94
294.38
312.69
308.40
291.86
324.50
348.92

Annual

544
-642
559
254
-310
-109
314

MEMBER BANK BORROWINGS FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

210
1 ,347
100
313
807
40 6
451
556
90 5
49
70

IV Q

II Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

283
-631
626
95
-533
-504
492
-259
-194
551

-530

Oct.

©
)

1 ,391
430
164
913
716
775
489
896
126
106
163
339
327
46 5
634
166
587
1 , 1 54
40 3
291
743
1 ,387
1 ,260
126
71
906
952
1 ,800
1 ,703
829
577
831
4,607
1,415

970
279
956
302
52
99
324
310
539
753
89
535
1,169
931
708
385
2,018
3,315
289
101
6 80
1,167
1 ,207
788
1,516
7 18
1 ,46 5
7,061
1,156

7 80
768
147
606
831
837
294
799
431
79
104
248
289
470
634
173
563
1,101
803
412
321
1 ,677
2 ,050
194
84
46 2
872
1,338
1 ,420
1 ,359
1,052
1 ,034
3,730

END OF PERIOD

72.87
70.71
45. 52
49 .91
61 .70
58.26

73.52
6 8.46
4 4 . 52
50.56
63 . 6 0
56 .56

74.37
64.97
44.82
51.74
63.72
55.15

73 . 8 0
62.43
46 . 13
53.21
63.56
53 . 2 4

73.16
60.58
45.31
54.37
63.81
51 . 7 9

72.68
58.64
45.25
56 . 2 4
63 . 8 8
50.35

65.95
74.03
52.00
47 . 8 4
58.19
62.74

1 .06
2.89
• 6.7 1
9.10
60.22
.99

74.37
64.97
44.82
51.74
63.72
55.15

7 2.68
58.64
45.25
56 . 2 4
63 . 8 8
50.35

72.68
58.64
45.25
56 . 2 4
63.88
50 . 3 5

47 . 3 9
42 . 8 6
42.46
43.23
50 . 1 6
58.30
69.65
89.17
97 . 3 6
101 . 0 8
110.87
104.48
99.64
106.61
135.86
17 8 . 8 0
168.42
167.35
180 .87
221.63
281 . 0 0
300 .07
317.08
295.30
301.50
348.73
351 . 1 4

47 . 50
43.31
42.90
42.81
50 .26
58.90
70 . 4 0
90 .26
97.72
101 . 8 2
110 . 6 2
103.09
99.60
107 . 3 4
138.39
184.14
167.57
166.90
182.59
226.24
282.04
301.91
316.75
291 . 0 3
304.04
350 . 3 4
353.49

48.66
43 . 6 2
43 . 0 4
43.36
50.86
60 . 0 6
71.81
92.64
98.04
103.00
111.40
102.42
100.55
109.73
141 . 1 8
186.81
166 . 7 3
167.90
184.61
231 . 1 6
284.60
304.85
316.76
288.35
307 . 2 5
350 . 3 4
356.48

49.48
42 .7 9
43.08
43 . 8 3
50.92
61.24
73.13
93 .37
99.04
104.50
111.29
101.10
100.87
110.94
144.67
185.96
165.19
169.52
188.09
238.42
285.94
307 . 3 6
313.81
286.94
313.10
346.04
354.49

49.45
42 . 4 0
43.41
43.96
51 . 1 2
62.13
74.46
93.84
99.50
104.95
111 . 3 1
100 . 9 1
101.59
112.44
148.64
185.24
165 . 0 6
170.55
190 . 7 1
245.30
288.23
308.69
312 . 0 2
284.87
318.24
348.08
351 . 2 8

48.88
4 2 . 10
43 . 9 8
45.51
50 .96
63.15
75.90
94.16
100 . 58
105.95
111.25
101.57
102.12
114.72
151 . 5 0
182 . 9 2
164.14
172.27
195.01
249.48
290 . 9 2
312.65
309.07
287.80
320 . 1 2
345.44
353.04

47 .06
45 . 2 3
41 . 6 3
44.53
48 . 8 4
53 . 5 2
66.17
81 . 9 9
93 . 94
102.43
107 . 5 4
108.46
103.60
103.59
124.44
162.72
174.75
163.49
174.66
204.79
267 .87
298 .77
312.27
305.85
290.62
338.09
347 . 10

47 . 4 2
43 . 2 9
42 . 0 5
43 . 2 0
50.15
56.7 1
68.86
87 . 4 0
96 . 7 4

48 .66
43.62
43 . 0 4
43 .36
50.86
60.06
7 1.81
92 . 6 4
98.04
103.00
111.40
102.42
100.55
109.73
141 . 1 8
186.81
166.73
167 .90
184.61
231.16
284.60
304.85
316.76
288.35
307 . 2 5
350.34
356 . 4 8

48.88
42.10
43 . 98
45.51
50.96
63.15
75.90
94.16
100.58
105.95
111 . 2 5
101 .57
102.12
114.7 2
151.50
182.92
164.14
172.27
195.01
249.48
290.92
312.65
309 .07
287.80
320.12
345.44
353 . 0 4

48.88
42.10
43 . 9 8
45.51
50.96
63.15
75.90
94.16
100.58
105.95
111.25
101 .57
102.12
114.72
151 . 5 0
182 . 9 2
164.14
172.27
195.01
249 . 4 8
290 . 9 2
312.65
309.07
287 .80
320.12
345.44
353 . 0 4

102 .26
110.91
105 .48
100.40
105.98
134.06
174.53
168.38
165.64
17 9.96
218.20
27 9.57
296 .07
315.60
297 .76
298.17
344.60
349.25

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted f o r the convenience of the user.




99

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.

104.

My
a

July

June

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

ll Q

III Q

IV Q

Annual

C
(PERCENT)

1955...
1956 . . .
1957 . . .
1958. . .
1959. . .
1960 . . .
1961 . . .

0.95
0 . 50
0.27
0.48
0.36
0 .47
0 .08
0.83
0.33
0.59

0.56
0.60
0.27
0.51
0.51
0 . 50
0.42
0.11
0.23
0.57

0 .41
0 .91
0.17
0.03
0.15
0 .64
0.25
0.37
0.23
0 .34

0 .22
0.80
0 .03
0 .61
0.00
0.29
0 .20
0.37
0.15
0 . 54

0.33
0.55
0 . 50
0.89
0 .24
0.32
0.31
0 .82
0.13
0 .66

0.48
0 . 10
0.57
0.21
0.26
0 .36
0 .63
0 .41
0.48

0.55
0.68
0.33
0.72
0.03
0 .43
0.14
0.68
0.53
0.55

1963.. .
1964. . .

0.60
0.50

0.81
0.51

0.59
0 .43

0.57
0.51

0.73
0.68

0 .48
0.70

0 . 58
0.56

0.84
0.50

1966. . .
1967 . . .
1968. . .
1969. . .
1970 . . .
197 1 . . .
1972 . . .
1973.. .
1974...
1975. . .
1976 . . .
1977 . . .

0.70
0.55
0 .8 9
0 .5 a
0 .3 3
0 .8 I
0.8
1 .0
0 .9
0 .3 7

0.46
0.66
0 . 57
0.49
-0.03
0.96
.09

0.71
0 .40
0.62
0 .47
0.61
0 .94
0 .97

0.33
0 .67
0 .67
0.08
0 . 47
0.73
0.80

0.27
0.74
0 .81
0 .32
0.37
0.7 9
0 .95

0.08
0 .67
0.92
0 .00
0 . 92
1.15
1 . 10

0 .27
0 .90
0.93
0.11
0 .89
0 .70
1.17

0 .94
0.58
0 .86
0.97

0.78

0 .8

. 11
) .43
.03
.01

0.51
0 .84
0 . 59
0 .50
0.37
0.88
0 . 94
0.88
0 .88
0.63
0.72
0.94

0 . 97
1 .00
0.95

0.83
0.98
0.69
0.92

1979. . .
1980 . . .
1981 . . .
1982. . .
1983 . . .
1984. . .
1985. . .
1986 . . .

+
0.7 •
0 .8
1 .2 +
1.23
1.31
0.81
0.72

0.77
1 .05
0.98
0.81
1.01
0.85
0.87

1 .08
0.56
0.51
0.68
0.75
.16
0 .67

1 .09
0.41
0 .83
0.85
0.95
1 .04
0.17

0 .90
0 .60
0 .91
0.79
0 .63
1 .04
0.52

1 .46
0.64
0 . 95
0 .76
0.79
.04
0.79

0.64
0.78
0.85
1 .08
0 . 91
1 .01
0.82
1 .03
0.85
1.01
1.03
0.48

0.58
0.17
0.39
0.74
0 .48
0.14
0 .47
0 .10
0 .48
0 .40
0.53
0.75
0 .86

0.55
0 .41
0.43
0.50
0 .27
0 .34
0.64
0 . 52
0 .45
0.43

0.62
0.79
0.76
0.96
0.88
0.75
0.94
0.89
0.78
0 .66
0 .76
0.77

1 952 . . .
1953...
1954...

0.9

0.63

BANKS

10

0.54
0 .10
0.46
0.55
0 .27
0 .03
0.55
0 .08
0.35
0 .64
0.42
0.49
0 .70
0.77
0.30
0.70
0 .90
0.32
0.75
0.79
1 .10

0 .50
0.74
0.78
0.45
0.77
0.71
1 .03
0 81
0 .66
0.95
0.56
0 . 96
1 .06
1 .28
0.78
1.01
0 .60
0.67
1 .00
0.76

0.62
0.78
1 .09
1 .05
0.91
0.66
0.80
1.11
1 .01
0.58
0 .68
0.59

0.57
0.13
0 .46
0.40
0 .38
0 .06
0.79
0.15
0.25
0 .7 1
0.98
0.93
0 .60
0.71
0 .41
0.58
0 .64
0.78
0.57
0.79
1 .28
0 69
0 .48
1.12
0.87
1.04
0.12
1.16
0.92
0.50
0.95
0 .74
1 .00

0.50
0 .27
0.29
0 .43
0 .41
0 .34
0.54
- 0 . 10
0.25
0.63
0.89
0.44
0 . 50
0.62
0 . 56
0.65
0.68
0.55
0.69
0.88
1 .22
0 77
0.56
0 .64
1.05
0 .99
1.18
0.45
0 .86
0.69
0 .61
1 .14
0 .94
1.03

0 .64
0.67
0 .24
0.34
0.34
0.54
0.25
0 .44
0 .26
0.50
0.72
0 .67
0.48

0.39
0.61
0 .21
0.69
0.15
0.29
0.29
0 .61
0.23
0.56

0 .56
0.42
0.38
0.65
0 .26
0 .30
0.42
0 .43
0 .49
0.46

0.54
0.17
0.40
0 .46
0.35
0.14
0.63
0 .04
0.28
0.66

0.53
0.47
0.31
0.54
0.28
0 .32
0 .40
0.38
0.32
0.54

0.59
0.63

0.72
0.64

0.62
0 .60

0.65
0.59

0.56
0.68
0.68
0 .52
0.22
0 .89
0 .97
1.03
0.97
0.48
0 .89
0.95
0.89
0 .86
0.81
0 .91
0.91
1.02
0 .94
0.75

0 .44
0.60
0 .70
0 .29
0.48
0 .82
0.91
1 .01
0.85
0.84
0 .85
0.95
0.86
1 .15
0.55
0.90
0.80
0.79
1.04
0.49

0 .28
0.77
0.88
0.19
0.86
0 .85
1 .10
0.92
0.64
0.84
0.72
1.00
0.95
1 .01
0.85
0.98
0.74
0.78
0.93
0.67

0 .42
0.64
0.74
0.55
0.67
0.82
1 .20
0.72
0.55
0.85
1 .00
1.03
1.10
0.41
0.94
0.91
0.71
0.89
0.79
0.87

0.42
0.68
0.75
0.39
0.56
0.84
1.04
0.92
0.75
0.75
0 .87
0.98
0.95
0 .86
0.79
0 .92
0.79
0.87
0.92
0.70

©

(F ERCENT)
1952. . .
1953 . . .
1954...
1955. . .
1956 . . .

3.00
3.00
3.25
3 .00
3.50

3.00
3.00
5.25
3.00
3.50

3.00
3.00
3.13
3 .00
3.50

3.00
3.03
3 .00
3.00
3.65

3.00
3.25
3 .00
3 .00
3.75

3.00
3.25
3 .00
3.00
3.75

3.00
3.25
3 .00
3.00
3.75

3.00
3 .25
3 .00
3.23
3 .84

3 .00
3.25
3.00
3.25
4.00

3 .00
3.25
3.00
3.40
4.00

3 .00
3.25
3.00
3.50
4.00

1958. . .
1959. . .
1960 . . .

4.34
4.00
5.00

+ .00
+ .00
5 .00

4.00
4.00
5 .00

3.83
4.00
5 .00

3.50
4.23
5 .00

3.50
4.50
5.00

3.50
4.50
5.00

1962. . .
1963 . . .
1964. . .

4 . 50
4.50
4 . 50

+ .50
+ .50
+ . 50

4.50
4 . 50
4.50

4.50
4.50
4 . 50

4.50
4.50
4.50

4.50
4.50
4.50

4.50
4 . 50
4.50

3.50
4.50
4.85
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

1966 . . .
1967. . .
1968. . .
1 969. . .
1970...
1 971 . . .
1972 . . .
1973. . .
1974...
197 5 . . .
1976. . .

5.00
5.96
6.00
6.95
8.50
6.29
5.18
6.00
9.73
10.05
7.00

5.00
5.75
6.00
7.00
8.50
5.88
4.75
6.02
9.21
8.96
6.75

5.35
5.71
6.00
7.24
8.39
5.48
4.75
6.30
8.83
7.93
6.75

5.50
5.50
6.20
7 .50
8 .00
5 .25
4.98
6 .60
10 . 0 2
7 .50
6.75

5.50
5.50
6.50
7.50
8.00
5.42
5.00
7.01
11.25
7 .40
6.75

5.52
5.50
6.50
8.23
8 .00
5.50
5.04
7 .49
11 . 5 4
7 .07
7.20

5.75
5.50
6.50
8.50
8 .00
5.90
5.25
8.30
11 . 9 8
7.15
7 .25

5.88
5.50
6 .50
8 . 50
8.00
6 .00
5.27
9 .23
12.00
7 .66
7 .01
6 . 83

4.00
5 .00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
6 .00
5.50
6.00
8.50
7.50
5 .91
5.73
9.94
11 . 6 8
7.96
7 .52

1 978. .
1979. .
1980 . .
1981 . .
1982 . .
1983..
1984. .
1985 . .
1986. .

7.93
11 . 7 5
15.25
20.16
15.75
11.16

8.00
11 . 7 5
15.63
19.43
16.56
10.98

8.00
11.75
18.31
18.05
16.50
10.50

11 .00
10.50

11.21
10 . 50

11 . 7 5
16.57
19.61
16 . 50
10.50
12.39
10.31

11.65
1 2 .63
20.03
16.50
10.50

11.00
10.61

11 . 7 5
19.77
17.15
16 . 5 0
10.50
11 . 93
10 . 5 0

11 . 5 4
11 . 4 8
20.39
16.26
10.50
13 . 0 0
9.50

11.91
11 . 1 2
20.50
14.39
10 . 8 9
13.00
9.50

3.83
5 .00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
6 .00
5.50
6.40
8.50
7.83
6 .00
5.50
9.86
1 2.00
7.88
7 .00
7.13
9.41
1 2 .90
2 .23
20.08
3.50
1 .00
1 2 .97
9.50

I ,110
,532
i
,659
,927

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

548.

MANUFACTU

*ERS'

NEfc

12 . 6 0
9.78

ORDERS,

3 .00
3 .00
3.21
3.00
3.50

3.00
3.18
3.00
3 .00
3.72

3.00
3.25
3.00
3.16
3.86

3.00
3.25
3.00
3 .47
4.00

3.00
3.17
3.05
.16
.77

4.00
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
6 .00
5.68
6.20
8.50
7 .28
5 .47
5.75
9.75
10.83
7.53

3.00
3.25
3.00
3.50
+ .00
+ .50
+ .00
5 .00
+ .50
+ .50
+ .50
4.50
4.50
4.92
6 .00
6 .00
6.60
8.50
6.92
5.25
5.79
9.75
10.50
7.26

4.11
4.00
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4 50
5.12
5.81
6 .00
7.06
8.46
5.88
4.89
6.11
9.26
8.98

l+

7.75
10.94
15.55
16 . 0 6
16.84
11.85
11.00
11 . 7 7

7.75
11.55
1 5.30
20.35
15.75
11 . 5 0
11 . 0 0
11 . 0 6

6.25
7.98
11.75
16 .40
19.21
16.27
10.88
11 .07

3.61
4.67
4.78
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
5.88
5.50
6 .47
8.50
7.94
5.97
5.34
9.13
11.99
7.56
7.09
6 .90
9.14
12.12
11 . 6 1
20.32
14.72
10.80
12.99

4.00
5.00
4.50

14.39
13.79
18.45
12.52
11 . 0 0
12.58

3.61
4.24
5 .00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
5.51
5.50
6 .40
7.74
8.00
5.39
5.01
7.03
10.94
7.32
6.90
6 .47
8.30
11.72
16.32
18.93
16.50
10.50
12.31

4.50
4.50
4.50
4.64
6.00
5.73
6.27
8.50
7.23
5.54
5.76
9.81
11.00
7.58
6.54
7 .67
10 . 8 1
15.08
16.73
17 . 0 1
11.96
11.00
11 . 8 0

2,523
2,087

2,037
2,129

7,923
5,044

6,625
6,685

28,652
24,754

1 ,692
1 ,676

6,047
6,533
5,236
5,401
5,295

8,057
6,492

1,763
1,536

2,065
2,46 9
1 ,796
1,554
2,063

4,163
5,643

5,315
4,763

5,009
5,275

19,888
20,976

.83
.48
+ .82

l+

.50
+ .50
+ .50

5.62
5.63
6.28
7.95
7.91
5.70
5.25
8.02
10.80
7.86
6.84
6 . 82
9.06
12 .67
15.27
18.87
14.86
10.79
12 . 0 4
9.93

DEFENSE PRODUCTS

s)
1952
1 953
1 954
1955
1 9 56
1957 . . .
1958
1 9 59
1 96 0
196 1 . . .
1 962
1 963

1 964. . .
1 96 5
1966 . .
1 967
1968. . .
1969. . .
1970 . . .
1971 . . .
1972.. .
1974...
1975.. .
1 976 . . .
1977 . . .
1978. . .
1979.. .
1980 . . .
1981 . . .
1982 . . .
1983.. .
1984...
1985. . .
1986. . .

1,957
2,200
1,499
2,050
2,154

2,206
1,870
1,862
1,958
1,668

,884
.,463
,875
,393
,473

2 ,270
2 ,636
1 ,689
1,531
1 ,825

2 ,825
2,164
1,939
1 ,451
1 ,625

2 ,962
1 ,692
1 ,900

2,419
1,561

2,383
2,473

,348
2,008

1 ,847
2,267

2,453
2,122

1 , 934
1 ,888

2,913
2,294
3,830
4,463
7,048
9,555
6,503
11,061

2,601
3,348
3,650
4,967
6,758
5,014
6,884
4,708

-,581
+ .439
2,562
+ .959
3,759

6 , 544
6,361
11 , 7 1 3
6 ,240

2,832
3,409
2,614
4,913
4,113
6,014
6,578
5,139
6,130

2,663
3,642
2,925
4,373
5,423
5 ,644
5,609
6,648
8,773

1,181
2,193

2,943
3,80 9
2 ,521
4,807
4,764
5,594
7,412
6,834
11,238

1 ,915
1 ,668
2,156
1 , 966
1 ,347

2,898
1,844
1,769
1 ,6 90
1 ,489

1,504

3,612

,257

1 ,381

2,445

2,034

6,150

6,234

7,373

5,860

25,617

1 ,818
3,027
3,088
3,161
6 , 530
5,390
5,351
7 ,115
7,600
9,594

2,033
2 ,646
3,359
2,944
5,062
5,600
5,994
5,496
8 , 0 90
10,270

,617
,390
,072
,048
t ,007
t ,055
l• , 4 9 8
,80 4
,301
3,106

2,823
4,530
3 ,792
2,901
5,083
4,975
6,160
6 ,792
5,167
6,179

2 ,799
2,793
4,097
3,090
4,369
5,147
5,445
8,506
10,091
6,810

3 ,700
4,152
3,518
2,730
4,985
4,501
10,057
7 ,038
7 ,448
7,152

6 ,820
7,295
9,953
8,204
12,439
13,189
20,350
20 , 9 3 0
25,100
22,009

7,930
8,438
10,860
8,060
14,093
14,300
17,252
19,599
18,621
26,141

6 ,468
8,063
9,519
9,153
17,599
17,045
15,843
18,415
22,991
27,970

9,322
11 , 4 7 5
11,407
8 ,721
14,437
14,623
21 , 6 6 2
22,336
22,706
20,141

30,540
35,271
41 , 7 3 9
34,138
58,568
59,157
75,107
81,280
89,418
96,261

NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
'This series contains revisions beginning with 1983.

100



(JANUARY 1987)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

1952. . .
1953 . . .
1954. . .
1955. . .
1956.. .
1957 . . .
1958...
1959. . .
196 0 . . .
1961...
196 2 . . .
196 3 . . .
1964. . .
196 5 . . .
1966. . .
1967 . . .
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
197 2 . . .
1973.. .
1974. . .
1975...
197 6 . . .
1977.. .
1978...
1979. . .
1980...
1981. . .
1982 . . .
1983...
1984...

55.5
59,7
55.6
64.1

55.6
>9.8
>6 . 1

55.8
60.1
56 .1

55.4
9.7
6 .7

55.9
59.1
57.3

57 .1
58.1
57.9

56.8
58.2
58.7

65.4
62.2
71.4
72.9

J5.3
J1.6

65.3
62.0
73.7
70.8

>4.8
( 2.2
4.0
0.9

65.0
63.4
74.2
71.0

65.3
64.7
73.7
71.1

June

Nov.

Dec.

l Q

58.7
55.8
60 .9

58.9
55.3
62.3

59.1
55.4
63 .1

5 .6
51 . 9

66.3
64.2
68.7

63 . 5
69.4

66.4
62 .7
70 . 4

62 .1
70.1

71.5

71 .2

70.8

70 .4

Aug.

Sept.

59.2
55.9
59.7

65.2
66.2
73.4
71 .4

57 .5
57 .3
58.4
67.5
66.5
65.1
67.5
73.1
71 .4

July

Oct.

II Q

III Q

IV Q

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

(1967=100)

.9

56 . 1
59.0
57.3

57.8
5 7 .1
5 8.9

6

.3
.9

65.0
63.4

6 4.8
6 7 .5

7

.9

7 1.0

7.6

58.9
55. 5
62 .1
67 . 3
66.3
62.8
70.0

57.1
57 . 9
58,6
66.6
66 . 5
64.5
65.7

7 2,6
70.8

7 3.1
7 1,3
7 5.2
79.6
84.5
90 , 6
96 . 0
99.0

78.8

72.3
72.1
71.4
79.9

80.0

79.6

78.7

77.9

78.7

79.3

79.9

80.0

80.8

81 .0

7 J.6

78.7

87.2
94.5
99.9

88.2
94.8
100.8

88.4
95.2
101 .9

89.3
95.0
101 .5

90.2
95.6
100.2

89.9
95.3
99.4

90.8
95.5
99.1

91.5
95.8
98.3

91.7
96.4
97.3

92 .8
97.0
96 .7

93.1
98.0
96,5

93.7
99.1
96 . 4

g- . 9
9^ * . 8
100.9

89.8
95.3

104.4
112.2
107.5
108.6
119.2
132.4
128.7
107.7
126.1
134.5
141.0
147.7
141.4
142.1
135.1
145.2
164.5

105.5
112.1
106.6
110.2
120.7
134.1
128.0
107.6
128.0
136.5
142.8
147.5
140.4
140.4
135.7
147.4
166.5

105.7
111 .7
105.5
111 .9
122.2

105.4
112.2
105.1
113.7
122.9
133.5
125.5
113.4
130.5
138.9

106.0
111.2
105.5
113.5
123.3

106 .9
110.2
104.8
113.3
124.4

106.5
110.3
104.7
113.7
126 .0

108,1
110.8
104.9
14.6
27 .5

10 .3
10.7
04.4
15.5
29.4

110.8
109.5
105.0
116,5
130.3

111.5
109. 1
107 .3
118.0
131 . 4

127.8
107 .8
128.8
138.4

104.7
112.7
104.5
112.9
123.0
133.4
126.1
111.0
129.3
138.5

23.8
15.8
31.6
39.8

123.5
118.2
132.2
138.5

120.3
119.0
131 .9
140.5

16.5
20.6
32.4
41 .1

13.5
22 .0
32.2
41 . 9

H I ,2
122.4
133.5
141 .6

149.3
137.4
141 .7
134.7
150.2
167.2

146.4
133.4
144.6
136.0
152.5
168.1

147 .6
130.9
144.5
136 .2
1 54.4
168.2

46.5
32.0
43.2
35.5
57 . 3
166.7

145.2
135.1
142.9
136 .2
1 58.2
163.9

144.5
138.3
142.4
136.1
158.9
164.4
169.8

44,5
41 .2
39.3
37.5
60.0
65.7

41 .7
42.4
36.9
138.6
62.4
164.2
71.6

140 .1
143 . 4
137.0
139.4
162.5
165.1
171.6

15.8
-17 .1
-6.0
1 .8
1 .8
-1.8
26.3
-4.8
0 .0

41 .9
-25 .7
30.2
7 ,
-3 .
-15.
23.
3 .,
1-

- 2 .1
27.0
-13.3
1 .8
-12.3
12.9
-9.4
-4.9

- 1 0 .2
31 .4
7.4
0 .0
-14.1
18.7
-12.4
-6. 5

2 .2
16.5
-5.2
- 7 .0
-10 .9
-5.0
24.0
- 6 .6

7.0
5.2
19.8
-0.4
-4.1
-0.3
22 . 3
-12.3

-12.5
13.5
4.3
-5.9
0.2
19.1
0.2
1.7

-13.6
14.0
7.5
1.9
-6.3
27.2
-2.1
2.3

-3 .4
25.0
-3.7
- 1 .7
-12.4
8.9
0 .7
-6.0

-5.6
14.4
7 .0
-1 .5
-5.6
13.7
5 .3
- 3 .6

9.5
5.8

1 .5
8.7
1 .3
7 .7
- 7 .2
2 ,4
27 . 3
-1.1
-5.6
9.8
19.4
0.9
-26.9

12.7
2.8
3.9
13.1
- 2 .5
8.5
5.6
-12.3
7 .1
10.9
8.7
0.9
-21 .8

3.0
2 .8
8.0
14.3
- 1 .2
1 4.9
7 .9
-4.3
29.7
16.6
10 .6
-19.9
-19.6

6.5
11.3
8.2
6.6
11.8
2.4
5.2
0.8
-12.5
18.3
15.0
9.0
-2."

-10.0
6.6
7.3
0.5
-9.4
10.0
1.5
-1.4
0.3
6.0
3.7
-3.2
-11.8

10.7
6.0
13.1
4.7
-8.1
13.3
8.6
-1.2
-2.2
4.0
14.4
-6.4
- 2 0 .6

5.7
4.8
4.4
11.7
- 3 .6
8.6
13.6
- 5 .9
10.4
12.4
12.9
- 6 .0
-22 .8

3 .2
7 .2
8.2

3 .8
-9.3
23.8
-4.4
1.1
-1.1
4.3
16.6
-10.3
-27 .0

9.
1 5.
16.
7 .8
-11 .5
4.8
19.6
5.6
2.3
9.9
15.3
-5.3
-32.0

-2.7
18.8
6 .8
-5.6
32.4
-4.1
-0.9
5.4
3.7
4.3
-1 .3

4.6
5.2
5.0
0.0
28.3
-23.2
13.
8.6
9.9
5 .8
2.0

-1.8
7 .0
9.4
-20.9
10.7
-18.8
10 .0
19.6
-10.3
7 .3
8.3

12.5
-2.5
-2.4
- 1 2 .7
8.8
0 .9
7 .2

9.4
7 .0
-3.2
.5
- 5.3
- 3.8
1 5.7

3 3.3
9 .0
4.2

1/ . y

7 .6
6 .7
3 .8
1 .3
- 1 0 .0
5.4

6^8
0 .0
11 .2

_ .0
1 + .9
28.9

3 .3
1 .4
6 .3
7
9.3
7

91 . 7
95.9

80^6
86.5
93 .2
98.0
96.5

100.4

98.2

06 . 5
10 , 2
20,7

105.4
112.0
05.0
13.4
23.1

10 7 . 2
11 0 . 4
10 4 . 8
11 3 . 9
12 6 . 0

110.9
109.8
105.6
116.7
130.4

07 . 2
11 . 1
05.5
13.5
25.0

109.2
122.8
1 34.5
142.4

28.2
07 .7
27 . 6
36.5

25.1
13.4
30.5
39.1

111.3
122 . 4
1 33 . 4
142 .0

140.5
143 .0
136.2
140 .9
163.4
164.1
17 3 . 6

48.2
39.7
4 .4
35.2
47.6
66.1

46.8
32.1
44.1
35.9

12 0 . 1
11 9 . 3
13 2 . 2
14 0 . 0
6.1
14 4 . 7
13 8 . 2
14 1 . 5
13 6 . 6
15 9 . 0
16 4 . 7

21 . 2
15.7
30.9
39.4
45.8
45.1
38.2
40 . 9
36 . 8
56 . 0
65.7

105.2
112.0

a o o . y

154.7
167.7
I O / . Z

I O ^ . V

1986...

140 . 8
142 . 9
136.7
139.6
162.8
164.5
17 2 . 3

I 0 V . S.

910C. C A
H N
(A!
1952...
1953.. .
1954...
1955...
1956 . . .
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960. . .
1961...
196 2 . . .
196 3 . . .
196 4 . . .
196 5 . . .
1966...
1967 . . .
196 8 . . .
196 9 . . .
1970..,
1971 . . .
1972...
1973...
1974...
197 5 . . .
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982. . .
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

2.2
12.9
4.4
20.8
-3.5
-10.4
1.9
24.7
-4.8
8.9
0.0
9.3
7.1
10.7
10.1
13.2
0.0
7.8
-16.2
15.5
12.9
9.5
0.0
-15.3
37.5
0.0
-11.2
4.2
8.0
-7.3
-9.3

2.2
2.0
11.3
22.7
-5.2
-1.8
-11.0
16.2
-12.4
8.8
18.1
12.4
14.7
3.9
11.4
-4.8
13.4
-1.1
-9.6
19.2
16.2
16.5
-6.3
-1.1
19.7
19.4
16.4
-1.6
-8.2
-13.4
5.5

8.4
17.3
-1.4

15.6
5.9
10.9
910C.

1953...
1954...
1955...
19 5 6 . . .
1957.. .
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961 . . .
196 2 . . .
1963...
196 4 . . .
196 5 . . .
1966.. .
1967 . . .
196 8 . . .
196 9 . . .
1970...
1971...
197 2 . . .
1973. . .
1974. . .
197 5 . . .
1976...
197 7 . . .
1978. . .
197 9 . . .
1980...
1981 . . .
1982. . .
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986 . . .

4.4
6.2
0.0
15.8
7.4
0.0
8.1
25.9
-19.6
24.2
1.5
12.3
2.8
5.2
13.9
-1.2
2.3
-4.2
-11.7
20.2
16.0
0.9
-1.9
2 ,3
7 .8
18.0
19.1
15.7
-22.8
11.7
-8.5
5.2
2.2
7.1

AVERAGE FOR

-6.1
2.1
17.9
13.3
7.5
-1.8
31.7
-4.8
5.2
0.0
13.0
-2.8
12.7

-8.3
-7.7
13.6
1 .8
5.5
-8.8
3.9
5.0
1.7
21.7
-5.8
10 .6
12.9
-2.5
-4.6
2.5
-10.8
11.3
-10.8
11.3
8.1
-6.9
-14.8
42 .1
4.8
0.9
12.2
-21.0
-29.8
27.5
12 .2

11.4
-11.4
13.5
7.5
-17.9
3.8
25.8
3.3
1.7
15.6
-12.8
12.1
12.8
7.8
-14.3
10.3
8.3
-5.2
7.1
8.8
-1.0
0.9
-5.6
2 9.3
11.7
3.5
0.8
10.3
-20.3
-0.8
1.8

29.0
-18.5
13.3
3.7
-5.3
5.7
27.6
-7.8
1.7
15.4
-11.5
-2.8
-3.9
-3.7
-9.2
17.2
7.0
-10.2
4.7
-2.1
4.0
-3.5
-15.1
28.6
10.6
8.1
4.2
-8.6
10.6
-10.3
-6.0

-3.6
11 .4
10.7
-10.3
-7 .7
-2.1
11 .2
-3.5
-2.9
27 .9
5.6
-10.6
-11 .6
-10.1
32.1
-2.5
6,4

6 .7
-4.9
16.9

0.7
2.9
-0.7

-10.2
4.4
-2.7

-18.4
11.3
11 .4

7

21 .

12. >
8.

-6.4
-13.2
5.5
2 .7

9.'
8. 5
5.5

-0.9
0.8
4.5

5 .2
.9
9.9
6 .2

30

1 .6
7.1
4.0

AVERAGE FOR

- 2 .3
8.6
7 .2
-1.9
-1 .0
10 .2
11 . 5
-1 .6
-14.5

10.3

10 .0
6 .2
3 .8
- 3 .9
3 .9
-3.9
3 .8

-3." 5
7 .4
16.1

0.9
6 .0
7 .6

PERIOD

15.5
-14.3
13.0
7 .4
1 .8
-6.6

14.1
-15.5
15.9
-1 .8
0 .0
-10.0

10.1
-13.2
29.5
0.0
-0.6
-14.0

-0.7
-3 .5
24.8
-4.1
-1 .8
-12.5

7.0
- 1 .4
22 .7
- 0 .6
- 5 .9
-7.9

2.5
4.4
6.4
17.6
-1.0
-4.8

7.4
-9.0
12.4
6.9
-4.9
0.2

13.9
-13.8
1 2 .3

-2.2
2.3

-3 .8
-1.1

-6.4
-3.3

-0 .5
-6.0
13.2

1 .1
- 1 .7
6 .9
8.2
4.2
7.5
12.5
2.9
7 .6

16.3
-7.3
11.7

2.6
-0.5
16.1

_

10.4
8.7
5.4
10.1
1.0

6.6
7.8
2.0
-7.0
8.8

3.9
1 .2
8.1
6 .9
5 .2
9.4

- - .7
,9
.2
.9
•*

7 .3
-6 . 1
14.2
6 .7
-1 .9
-5.3
13.9
3 .2
-2.6
11.4
3 .3
7 .0
8. 1

8.3
3 .5

_ ' .6
.1

-1 .9
7 .6

-2.1
-1 . 8
4.0
4.0
-5 .8
22.0
7.5
2 .3

Ir.7
? .3

-2.4
-1 .3
10 . 4
11 . 5
- 1 .2
-15.1
13.9
8.6

6.3
5.9
20.0
-4.7
-6.5
-6.8
11.2
1.1

6.9
5.2
19.7
-0.6
-4.2
-0.6
22.2
-12.5

0.0
8.2
13.1
2.4
-3 .6
0.0
15.4
-10.5

-4.6
8.8
8.2
-2.4
-1.8
12.2
10.9
-6 .0

-12.7
13.5
4.3
-6.4
0.0
18.6
0.0
1.7

-9.7
14.9
8.1
-5.8
2.5
28.3
-3.2
2.9

12.0
-11 .6
7.9
6.2
1.2
0.6
28.5
-5.8
2.3

7.3
8.2
8.1

6.2
11.3
8.1

4.1
11.8
10 .0

-5.9
11.6
9.4

-10.1
6.4
7 .0

-4,4
1.9
6.9

3 .1
0.0
5.9

10 .7
5,8
13,1

6 .8
9.8
9.

7 .8
8.8
7 .2

11.9
2.1
9.2
4.8
-10.2
21.3
15.2
12.2
-9.1
-12.3
19.6

11.8
2.1
5.1
0.7
-12.6
18.3
15.0
8.8
-2.8
-5.0
21.0

6.6
-1 .2
1 .2
1.8
-10.7
16.8
13.4
3.1
-7.8
12.8
10 .5

-2.4
3.8

-9.5
9.8

-9.1
12.9

-8.2
13.1

-9.3
9.9

-7.1
5 .2

-0 .4
0.4
-5.5
13.3
7.5
-1 .8
-7.6
23.4
8.0

1.1
-1.8
0.0
5.8

8.7
-8.6
1.2
1.4

-7 .4
17 .4
4.2
-6.6
-1.5
0.0

4.7
4.4
11 .7
-3.6
8. 5

-1.4
-2.3
3.9

1 .8
-1 .5
8.0

-2.9
1 .2
10.2

- 6 .0
9.5
12.4

-11.1
17 .1
13.4

2.4
-11.2
18.8

-3.3
-1.4
6.8

3.6
-3.2
-11.9
33,2
9.0

4,6
-2.1
-8.0
28.6
9.3

8.0
-6.6
-1.5
17.0

-2.4
-9.2
28.4
8.8

15.9
-3.5
-20.8
7 .2
2.7
21 .7
9.0
1 .0
11.5

10.5
0.3
-24.4
12 .2
1 .5
20.4
4.1
0.0
7.5

5.6
-7.3
-14.8
4.3
2.4
20.3
-1.2
0.7
4.2

-2.4
-3.2
5.2
-4.6
0.6
15.8
-9.6
6.1
2.5

-1.2
-27 .0
11.9
4,9
3.2
3.9
-11.6
15.6
-14.3
10 .1
9.4
1 .7
4.3
7.1

-6 .8
-18.9
14.1
7 . 1

7.2
5.8
-8.5
-3.6
-2.9
29.1
9.6
8.3
5.4

-5.0
-28.7
13.5
0.0
10.2
7,1
-9.3
23 .4
-15.8
7 .2
11 .0
0.7
5.8
2.9

-6.6
-22.8
7 .5
6 .5

3.4
-0.3
0.9
-8.1
-3.7
25.0
10.2
4.9
7.9

-6.4
-21 .6
17 .6
2.5
3.8
-0,3
-5.3
30.9
-10.5
6 .0
7 .0
-2.4
7 .1
3.9

1 !l
-10.6
5 .2
-8.6
10.3
8.8
-3.8
7 .2
15.8

-0*. 5
-0.8
-0.8
-5.2
20 .5
5.3
5.2
4.3

8.8
0.7
-9.5
-1.5
-1.3
25,3
9.6
4.7
8.3

4.6
-3.4
-11.3
4.0
1.5
18.8
-2.2
2.3
4.7

NOTE*. These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent
spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quar
of the centered changes.




2 .5
4.5

5.7

6 .
-7 .
- 3 . ()
-4.

V
C A G IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS O :R 3-MONTH SPANS
H N E
(A

10.5
-5.9
-15.6
21 .3
4.4
4.7
-0.5
-8.1
24.6
-5.7
-0.3
12.2
-8.7
6.6
2.3

PERIOD

3.9
1 .0
5.3

2 .1
-7.6
-6 . 3
-10.7
4.3
10.1
-3.5
6.5
3.0

5.5
-6.0
.7
_ .6
.8
-1 .5

]9

1.0

_

+ .9
- 2 2.9
1 .2
> .2
-

.5
,7
3 .7

- 3.4
1, .6
.8
.0
.3

4.2
-4.5
3.0
-4.4
4.5
15.5
1 .2
4.7
(JANUARY 1987)

101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

920, COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
(1967=100)
1952, , .
19
1954, , .
1955, . .
1956 , . .
1957 . . .
1958. . .
1959. , .
1960...
1961 . . .
1962 . . .
1963 . . .
196 4 . . .
1965. . .
1966. . .
1967 . . .
1 968. . .
1 96 9 . . .
1 97 0 . , .
1971 . . .
1 972 . . .
1973 . . .
1974. . .
1 97 5 . . .
1976...
1977 . . .
1978. . .
1 979. . .
1980. . .
1981 . . .
1982 . . .
1983.. .
1984...
1985. . .
1986. . .

1952 . .
1 953 . ,
19 5 4 . .
19 5 5 . .
956. .
1957 . .
9 58. .
19 5 9 . .
9 30. .
1 9> 1 . .
1 9>2 . .
9 >3 . .
93 4..
19 3 5 . .
1 9? 6 , ,
1 937 . .
1968..
1969..
9 70 , .
19 7 1 , .
1 9 2. .
19 73 . .
19 74. .
19 7 5 . ,
1 976 . .
19 77 . .
19 78. .
1979. .
19 BO. .
19 SI . .
19 52. .
19 33. .
1 9B4. .
19 35. .
1 936. .

62.5
63 .1
59.4
67.4

69,1
63.6
68.1
69.7
70.1

68.4
64.2
67 .9
69.3
70.2

67.7
64.6
67.6
69.1
71 .0

76.9
82 . 5
89.6

77.4
83 . 1
90.2

7 8.0
82 . 1
91 .2

59.1
64.3

69.6
64.3
67 .0
71.9
67 .0
72.0
74.5
78.6
85 .4
93,6
99.4
02 .8
09,1
10 ,8
08.6
14.0
25.5

70 .0
63 .0
67.7
71 .6
66 .8

69.9
62.1
68.8
71 .0
67 .3

69.3
61 .0
69.8
7 1.3
67 , 5

68.9
61.2
70.6
70.9
68,3

69.1
62.1
70.8
70 .4
69.3

69.1
63.1
70.2
70 .0
69.4

75,1
79.4
86 .0
94.3
98. 8
03 . 5
09.9
10 .8
08,5
14.4

75.4
79.5
86 .8
95.4
98. 9
04.0
10.5
10.8
08.8
115.6
27 .4
27.8
13.0
23 ,6

76 .0
80.4
87 .3
95.5
99.1
04.4
10 .8
10.5
09.1
16.6
27 .2
24.3

76 .3
81.0
87 .9
96.0
99.0
05.2
10.8
10.1
09.6
17.2
27.5
28.2
14 .1
24,6

76 ,6
81 .2
88. 5
97 .1
99.2
06 .0
1 1 .4
09.7
09.8
16.9
27.8
28.3
14.9
24.8

76.8
81 . 9
89.4
97.3
99.5
06.6
12,1
09.8
09.6
117.8
28.7
28.2
15.6
25.3

40 .0
51 .2
48.1
47 ,2
39.2
134.6
53.1
59.3

43.0
49.1
45.1
47 .1
38.0
35,6
52 .6
60.5

43 ,1
50,6
42 ,4
46 .9
38.8
137.9
1 53 .9
160.2

44.2
50.6
41 .1
47 . 5
37.3
139.8
55.4
59.5

4.3
8.0
10.2
-5.7
2.2
-12.1
11 .1
21 .0
10 .1
-9.7
-20.2
20.8
4.8
-8.4

17.5
- 3 .0
- 0 .7

20 .3
9.8
0.0

- 2 .0
11.8
-11.4
25.7
0.0
- 1 .7
-15.9

13.3
-4.9
-3.5

8.8
9.4
-7 .0
8.5
9.2
0 .0
-1 .1
4.3
15.3
-6 .3
-1 5.3
] 5.9
8.8
1 1 .0
0 .8
-8.4
3 .3
13,8
-6 .9
9 .2
4 .6
3 .7

1 .2
6 .0
6.8
0 ,0
3.8
-1 .9
-15.5
7 .1
17 .0
15.8
15.5
-11 .4
0 .0
-5.8
10.3
4. 1
2 .3
- 3 .6

-4.0
0 .0

-19.3
18.9
5.2
3.6
8.5
10.0
14.5
7 .]
1 .3
2.5
3.3

7 .0
6 .6
29.0
-15.5
- 2 1 .8
-0, 8
-9.9
9.3
12.6
9.4
21.8

6.3
1 .9
-4.0
18.2
-6 .8
- 6 .7
4.0
14.7
-6 .5
15.2
0 .0
4.8
9.3
8.6
6 ,5
-1 .2

-7 .9
-5.4
0 .0
7.6
0 .0
3 .5
19.1
3.5
-8.1
19.1
-1 ,6
4.8

0.0
-4.3
5 .6
6 ,4
2 .9
5 .8
8.8
2.9
8.5

6.7
-4,3
2 .2
-3.0
2 .9
0.9
8.7
1 .9
10.4
9,6
0.0
-10.4
5.0
-12.2
17 .8
] 2.3
-5.1
-3.6

2.5

40.8
56 ,0
60 .9

100 .4
107 .1
112.6
09.0
10.1
119.9
28.7
26.5
18,1
25,6

100.3
107.7
112.9
06 .7
10 .2
121,8
9.7
5.2
8. 5
5.3

46.1
50 .4
42 .7
46.5
34 .5
43 .3
56 . 5
60 . 9

58.5
64.3
59.8
62.6
68.2
69.8
63.1
67.8
71.5
67.0

77.7
83.7
92.1
98.3
102.0
108.5
11.9
05.8
11 .0
123.2
30.7
22.2
18.9
126.8
37 .2
48.4
49.9
145.3
143.0
132.7
145.9
157 .7
161.6

78.3
85.1
93.0
98.6
103 .3
108.9
112.0
107 .6
112.2
124.5
129.8
118.4
119.5
127 .8
138.1
149.7
150 .0
146.1
140 .9
132.6
147.5
158.8
163.0

75.0
79.2
86 .1
94.4
99.0
103.4
09.8
10.8
108.6
14.7
26 .6
28.2
14.6
22.6
29.5
138.5
50.0
49.5
47 .1
139.2
134.1
150.4
158.9

5.9
-20.6
22.2
7 ,4
-3 .4
-17 ,8
34.1
13.2
-16.0
18.3
4.9
-4.5
26 ,1
12.5
0.0
22.3
9.3
-10.1
-9.7
9.1
14.7
9.7
-25.3
4.1
15.4
5.4
8,5
-3.1
9.5
-11 .8
-1 .8
7.7
9.6
6.1
3 .0

12.1
-19.4
17.1
7.3
9.0
-19.6
-5.3
56.6
-14.8
6.9
-4.7
9.7
22.0
12 .4
3 .7
16.4
4.5
1 .1
22.4
13.8
13.4
-8.0
-31 ,6
6 .2
9.9
8.2
11.0
0.8
6.8
-16.3
-0.9
14.0
8.7
10 .9
9.9

7.5
9.8
-8.7
16.1
0.0
0.1

12 .2
-15.4
15.8
9.3
5.9
-16.4
11 .0
18.9
-11 .6
13.1
1 .1
4,7
10.0
13.0
3 .7
12.1
6,9
-2.1
-5.0
7.9
16.3
3.5
-23.3

8.6
-18.3
17.9
5.4
0.0
-18.6
15.7
28.0
- 1 1 .6
5.8
0.5

•1.9

-20.4
3.8
-4.0
11 .5
-36.0
0.0
21.1
-9.7
-6.6
1 .7
6.7
3.2
10.8
12.9
2.5
3 .7

70.3
-13.8
0 ,0
0.0
50 . 9
0.0
9.9
-30.5
-5.0
12.8
3,3
1 .6
9.2
2 .7
3.8
10 , 1

39 . 9
-12.3
6 .3
9.4
13.0
-11.5
11 . 9
-3.5
-6.7
1 .7

7 .8
1.1
- 2 .2
9.6
8.8
- 0 .9
7 .6

4.4
-5.3
-3.2

1 .1
-3.2
9.1

19.0
-5.5
8.4
13.3
12.9
-11 .6
7 .7
-5.2
-3.4
14.6
3.3
9.7
-13.5
14.1
7 .6
-1.2
6.9
3 ,2
-22 .6
1.1

-8.1
-8. 1
19.1
1 .9
2 .7
7.7
- 3 .1
3.5
-2.4
-10.1
0,9
2.3
9.4
2 .2

8.8
-7.3
8.5
1 .0
11 . 2
1.7
- 1 .6
13.5
-6.3
-6 .0
23.5
3 .9
0 .0
6.0

9.7
-11.7
4.1
-2.8
7.3
11 .2
-0.8
13.4
-15.2
-13 .4
15.2
0 .0
-0.7
-2.9

6 .9
3 .2
-2.5
0.8
- 7 .6
8.0
2 .3
1 .5
3.7

7.1
9,9
-11.7
13.2
2.4
3.5
-19.9
9.4
20.8
-7 .4
3.9
2.2
9.0
11.5
9.9
2.1
6.0

14.2
7 .8
3.2
2.7
-0 .8
5.3
13.5
3.3
4.5

7 .1
9.8
15.9
0.0
0.0
-18.7
1 8.8
0.6
0.6
4.5
5.5
6 .3
8.2
10.7
1 .2
2.7
6.0
-4.2
4.5
12.7
9.6
-6.0
-17 ,0
14.4
10 .1
5.6
4.1
-5.0
3.0
-4.7
6 .2
10.1
1 .3
-0.2

4 .2
7 .1
-5.9
16 . 4
3 .0
- 1 .7
-1 9.0
17.8
- 3 .3
3 .0

- 1 .1
1 .9
9.4
5.5
-3.4
-9.6
9.9
10 .7
18.4
-0.5
-14.1
0.8
- 1 .2
3 .9
8.6
5 .4
6.8

0.0
4.4
-7 .1
20.0
1 .2
-6.1
- 1 0 .9
18

-2.0
- 1 .2
-3.3
13.9
1 .2
-4.5
0 .0
12.1
-3 .3
12 . 4
2 .2
6,5
8.8
8. 1
7.3
1 .2
7 .9
3.3

-8.0
0 .0
-2.7
12.4
-15,8
-1 .1
14.5

3.2
7.6
8.0

-2.9
-1.1
4.2
4,8
1 .9

14.6
3.3
-17.9

3.1
2.0

-1 .6
-17.6
0,8
-5.3
16 .4
11 .9
0 .5
2.0

5.7
5.2
-11 .3




2.9
6 .5
8.1
0.0
-3.3
1 .1
-10.0
8.7
5.6
1 .8
0 .7

111 Q

Annual

IV Q

23 .8
-7.8
0.7
6.9
3.0
-4.0
14.2
-15.4
-6 .1
5.3
3 .3
4.2

-2.5
1 .1
-5.5
11 ,6
2.6
6,8
5.4
-0.5
4.6

3.6
4.0

? placed on the 3d me

41 .5
-10.6
24.4
-7 .9
9.9
-14.0
-5.0
9.5
2 .2
6 .4
1 .0
8.3
4.2
3.3
4.2
2.9
-10.8
2.2
14.3
3.1
-9.0
10.4
0.0
7 .0
6.8
- 1 .8
10.0
-8. 1
-9.9
12.8
2.1
2.8
1 .7

20 .8
-13.0
12.1
10 .0
7 .2
-13.7

5.9
1 1 .6
2.9
7.0
6.5
- 2 .1
-12.2
6.4
13.7
9.4
-15.1
5 .6
4.2
8.0
7 .0
-1.8
12,
-11 ,
15.3
4.4
1 .8
2 .0

58.6
64.9
59.0
65.0
68.5
69.1
61 .4
70.4
70.9
68.4
73.7
76.3
80 .9
87 .9
96.2
99.1
05.2
11 .0
10 9.5
16.9
27 .5
28.0
114.1
24.6
32.6
43 .4
50.1
42,9
47.2
138.0
137.8
154.0
160 .1

59.6
64.1
58.8
66.4
67.7
68.9
63.6
68.7
69.7
69.9
74.1
77.0
82. 5
89.7
97 .5
100.1
106.8
112.4
109.4
109.7
119.0
128.4
127.3
117.0
125.5
134.9
145.7
150.7
141.6
147.1
135.4
141 .6
156.1
160.5

62.9
61.9]
60.3 |
67.8 j
69.6
66,6;
65.6 i
68.9 !
68.1 !
71 .8 i
74.5
78.0
83 .6 i
92.1 j
98.4 i
101.9
108.4
112.3
106.7
111.1
123.2 :
130 .1 !
121 .9
119.0
126.6
137.3
148.5
150.1
145.2
142.8
132.7
146 .1
157 .7
161.8

59.9
63.8
59.5
65.4
68.5
68.6
63.4
69.0
70.0
69,3
73.7
76 .6
81.5
89.0
96 .6
100.0
106 .0
111 .4
109.2
109.7
118.4
128,2
126.4
116.2
124.8
133,6
144.0
150.2
144.8
146.0
136.3
139.9
154.5
160.3

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1 .3
0.8
4.8
5.5
6.4
8,3
10.8
1 .5
2.9
6.1
-4.0
4.7
12.9
9.7
-6 .0
-17,0
14.6
10.2
6.1
4.4
-4.7
3.1
-3 .8
6.6
10 .3
1 .3
-0.2

CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

spans: 1-month changes a ; placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes
of the centered changes.

102

45.0
51 .0
40 .8
47 .6
36 .4
40 . 7
155.7
1 59 .7

100.3
106.8
112.5

0.4
67.8
9.4
6.6
6 ,2
8.3
8.1
2 .0

63.4
60.8
61.2
68.2
69.9
65.4
65.9
70.9
67 .2
72.4

62.8

CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

-14.7
14.6
1 .8
-5 .0
-18.4
22,0
18.3
-3.5
-6 .4
1 .6

920C.
1952...
1953., .
1954. . .
1955. . .
1956 . . .
1957 . . .
1958. . .
1959. . .
1960 . . .
1961 . . .
1962. , .
1963 . . ,
1964. . .
196 5 . , .
1966 . . .
1967 . . .
196 8 . . .
1 96 9 . . .
1970...
1971 . . .
1972...
1973 . . .
1974...
1975..,
1976. . .
1 977 . . .
1978...
1979. . .
1 980 . . ,
1981 . . .
1982...
1983 . . .
1984...
1985. . .
1 986 . . .

63 .6
63.4
59 .0
66 .7

59.4
63,5

11 Q

Nov. Dec.

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
59.9
64 .1
58.7
66.2

60.0
62 .3

920C.

Oct.

57 .3
64 .9
58.7
66.2

60.0
61 . 9

39.9
33,5

Sept.

INDICATORS

58.4
64.7
58.9
65.6

58.8
65.0
58.9
65.2

28.3
37.1
49 .3
50.7
46 .8
38.4
34.3
49.5
58.4

Aug.

-1 .9
-1 .2
-3 .3
14.0
1.4
-4.3
1.3
12.4
-3.1
12 .6
2 .3
6.5
8.9
8.1
7 .5
1.3
7.9
3 .3
-3.9
3.7
4.8
1.3
1.6
6.9
3 .9
8.5
13.1
-0.9
-17.5
0.9
-5.0
16.5
11.9
0 .7
2 .8

29.9
-7.4
0.8
7 .0
9.3
-3.8
14.3
-14.6
-6.1
5,4
3.3
4.3
9.7
8.0
2.5
5.0
4.2
4.4
-2.5
1 .2
10 .7
3.2
-5.4
11.7
2 .6
6.8
5.4
-0.5
4.8
-2.6
-7.9
10.8
2.8
3.6
4,0

12 .0
-3.5
1.2
11 .6
4.2
-6.1
2.3
9.6
-4.8
8.0
2.9
5.3
9.1
9.3
6.1
5.1
5.5
3.0
-3.4
4.4
11.2
4.5
-8.2
1.6
7 .2
8.1
8.7
0.5
-1 .9
-3.3
-5.5
11 .6

12.3
-15.2
15.9
9.3
6 .2
-16.3
12.2
21.5
-11.4
13.3
1.2
5.0
11 .5
13.0
3.8
12.5
6.9
-1.9
-3.3
8.0
16.3
3.8
-22 .9
4.8
7.5
7.0
10.2
-1.0
9.9
-14.4
-5.4
12.3
6.1
5.4

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

9.9
-14.4
-5.5
12.2
6 .0
5.3
3 .2

3.1
17.1

10.9
4.6

12.7
- 3 .0
-25.8
10 .2
9.9
1.5
5,3
1 .1
7 ,4
-15.8
4.3
1 3 .. 0
.9
5.3

6,1
8.9
-8.8
15.2
1.8
0.6
-19.2
15.3
6.0
-1.3
6.1
5.3
8.3
9.6
9.7
0 .7
5.0
5.9
-3.1
5.7
11.6
9.3
-5.8
-16.4
12.8
9.5
9.1
2.1
-6.6
3.0
-4.8
4.2
10.7
3.3
3 .7

Quarterly and annual figures are averages

24.3
-7. 9

13.6
-14.3

8.3
9.1
7.5
1.2
7.8
3.8
6.3
2.6
1 .4
4.5
4.3
9.2
11. 0
2.3
-15,6
0.5
-4,3
0.5
0.2

4.6
6.1
8.1
4.5
4.5
4.9
4.5

6.8
6.8
-0.8

3.5
2.7
2.1

10.2
-3.4
0.9
-16.2
14.7
16.0
-10.7
10.1
1.4
4.0
11 .0
11.8
3.7
9.8
6.2
-3.8
-3.3
9.6
14.2
3.3
-21 .4
6.9
7.1
5.5
7.5
-0 .6
9.8
-13.8
-2.8
13.5
5.1
4.1

;
:
i
;
:

6.0
2.6
-3.7
4.8
10.8
4.4
-7.9
1 .6
6.5
7 .7
8.6
0.8
-2.2
-3.4
10.9
7.3
2 .7

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Mar.

Feb.

Apr.

May

III Q

IV Q

Annual

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

ll Q

51 9
57 3

51 .9
57 .9

52
58
53
59

.3
.3
.0
.4

53.0
58. 5
52.9
59.4

52.3
58.3

51 . 5
56.4

73.2
54.7

51.4
56.2
5 4.8
53 .2
63.6
68.0
65.2

52.0
57 .4

72 .6
63 . 8

50.4
53.7
57.2
52^
60.5
66 .9
70.1

55.9
65.6
70.6
62.7

76 . 4
.6
.5
.1

76.0
76.4
73.7
78. 1
82.7
87 .6
93 .1
99.7
100.2
105.5
114.9
108.7
104.3

78.4
74.4
75.0
78.6

77.8
73.3
76.2
79.9

.9
.0
.6
.2
.3
.8
.0
.1

77.2
73 .0
78.0
82 .4
86.1
92 .3
99.3
99.6
104.3
111.8
111.0
105.9
104.8

59.0
66.3
72.5
64.2
76.0
76.5
72.9
77.5
81 .7

89.5
95.5
100.3
101.5
108.1
113.8
106.6
105 .2

90.3
97.3
100.2
102 .1
109.9
113.7
106.6
105.1

91 .8
98.7
99.8
103.4
111.4
112.4
106.1
105.0

55 . 2
64.0
69.5
65.5
69.6
77.2
74.2
75.6
79.6
84.4
89.8
96 .2
100.0
101.8
108.7
113.7
107 .0
104.9

.7

121.1

114.2

116.5

117.6

119.8

117 lo

.8
.0

103.8
104.1

103.0
105.4

103.4
107.0

10 5.1
103.9
108.9

103.5
106 .4

.3
.1
.5
.2
.0
.7
.7

103.7
109.4
118.0
126 .1
123.0
124.4
116.7
110.9
121.9
130 .2

111.8
119.2
127.8
120 .5
125.5
115.3
111.3
124.5

112.7
121.7
129.1
121.2
125.3
111.4
116.2
126 .1

114.8
123.3
120.6
123 .5
122.7
109.9
119.9
127.5

116.8
126 .1
120.7
124.6
118.4
110.2
121.9
129.9

114.0
122 .6
124.6
122 .4
123 .0
111 .7
117 .3
127 .0

14 .9
4 .2
0 .0
27 . 8
11 . 5
14 . 2
- 3 .7
1 .6

17.3
4.2
-2.2
0.0
-3.5
10.4
18.3
-17.3

12.1
8.6
-14.1
0.9
12.9
4.0
-19.0
- 2 .2

12.2
22.0
-13.4
7 .6
23.0
6.9
-29.1
29.1

-2.2
8.1
-7.8
26 .8
12.4
28.7
3.6
48.4

9.2
4.2
-2.2
19.6
3.3
5.5
8.2
1.8

7 .8
10.7
-9.4
13.7
12.9
11.3
-9.1
19.3

-7.0
5.3
1.6
5 .4
10 .2
5.8
4.2

-10.6

-1.5
5.4
6.8
8.4
3.0
4.7

-2.0
7.5
11 .2
1 .4
8.2
7 .8
-2.7
7 .3
5.2
-8.6
-3 7
- 0 .4
4.7
8.9
-4.6
-0.7
6.5
9.7
4.7
13.7
-0.9
-14.5
4 6
3 .2
5.8
9.0

-5.3
6.9
5.8
4.9
7 .4
7 .7
0.4
4 .8
7 .3
0.0
-4.1
-0^8
9.5
6 .1
-12.8
-0.7
5.6
8.2
7 .4
-0 . 1
1 .9
-5.7
-4.5
10.3
7.0
3.5

July

Aug.

52 3
56 9

June

930 . COMPOS
AVERAGE FOR PEIUOD

( 1 9 6 7 = 00 )
50 .2
53.3

50 .3
53.8

50 8
54 1

50 6
55 2

51 3
56 5

52 2
56 8

52.6

52.7
6 0.2
66.6
69.3
64.0
76 .2

53 0

52 6
.5
67 . 8
67 . 8
64 . 3
77 . 3

53 2
.9
68 .1
64 .6
66
78 .6

53 9

54 .2

56 5

56.9

51 . 7
58. 1
53.
58. 2

68 . 1
63 .3
.3
79 . 4

68 .4
62 .6
69
7 9.2

71 .0
61 . 9
71
78 . 4

72.3
63.5

71 8
64 0

75.8

75 8

78 . 3

.8
78 . 5

75.6
79.0

75 .9
79 . 5
.8
89 .7

76 . 2
80 .0
85 .0

76.6
80 .3
85.9

77 1
80 7
86

1952. . .
1953. . .
1954...
1955...
1956 . . .
1957 . . .
1958. . .
1959. . .
1960 . . .
1 961 . . .
1962.. .
1963. . .
1964...
1965...
1966.. .
1967 . . .
1968...
1969...
1970 . . .
1971 . . .
1972...
1973. . .
1974. . .

77.9
81 .9
87.0
92.4
99.3
99.8
104.9
114.8
109.1
104.4
106.2
114.6

78.1
82.9
87.7
93.3
99.6
100 .4
105.6
114.8
108.8
104.2
107.3
114.4

197 5 . . .
1976.. .
1977 . . .

104.3
103.8

103.8
104.3

119.2
126 .2
121.7
126 . 1
115.7
109.8
123.7

119.7
127.1
120.7
125 .3
115.8
111.3
124.3

1979.. .
1980 . . .
1981...
1982 . . .
1983.. .
1984...
1985...
1986. . .

60.0
67.0
71 .8
64.1
74.9

67
69
64
77

0
2
.3
.0

78 . 3
83
88 .2
100
100
105
115
108
104
107
113
118
103
104
112
118
130
119
125
114
112
125

88 .9
.2
.1
.0
.7
.2
.7
.4
.6

89 . 8

.8
.2
.9
.1
.0
.0
.0
.2
.9
.2
.2

.3
.5
.4
.8
.8
.5
.5

122
121
122
124
109
118
126

123
120
123
122
110
119
127

.0
.5
.3
.3
.3
.8
.2

.0
.6
.2
.1
.0
.4
.7

22
25
22
24
09
17
26

121
132
119
125
113
114
125

121
129
122
125
111
116
126

.7
.3
.0
.9
.5
.6
.1

!6
.9
.3

99
102
109
114
107
105
112
117
106
103
107

.4
.2

102 . 8
104 .7

.3
.2
.3
.8
.2
.0
.1
.4
.8
.4

100 . 5
101 . 5
109 . 3
113 . 5
106.0
105 . 4
112 .0
117 .1
.0
103 .2
106 .2

.4
.8
.2
.0
.2
.9

.2
.5
.0
.6
.3
.1
.6
.7

100
101
107
113
107
104
109
115

89 .9
100
101
109
114
105
105
110
117
108
102
06

100
101
108
113
107
105
109
116
112
103
105

.3
3
9
.1
3
.4
.6
.6

.3
.8
.5
.3
.7
.8
.9

97.5
100.3
102.5
110.4
113.6
106.9
104.9

97.
100
102
111
113
106
105

7
1
6
1
5
4
1

118.6
105.9
103.9
107.7
115.4
124.7
119.4
124.7
121.4
109.7
121.0
128.4

118
106
104
108
115
125
119
125
120
109
122
129

7
0
2
3

4
-4
31
1
-8
9
21
0
-4

2
4
1
8
0
9
0
0
8

8
0
0
2
6
0
7

77
82
85
91
99
99
103
111
112
106
105

119
104
103
109
117
126
120
124
118
110
121
129

ORS
(ANNUAL RATE, P ERCEh T)
1952...
1953...
1954. . .
1955...
1956...
1957 . . .
1958...
1959...
196 0 . . .
1961...
1962.. .
1963 . . .
1964...
196 5 . . .
1966 . . .
1967. . .
196 8 . . .
196 9 . . .
1970...
1971 . . .
1972!!!
1973 . . .
1974...
197 5 . . .
1976 . . .
1977...
1978. . .
197 9 . . .
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983 . . .
1984...
1985...
1986...

!o

- 7 .7

.9
- 1 2 .2

2 .3
2 .1
- 4 .3
6 .9
36 .7
5 .4
- 1 2 .5
21 .1
.0
- 6 .3

10
0 .0

3 .1

7 .9

7 .9

7 .1
3 .9
8 .8

10 .0
13 .6
- 1 .2

12 . 8
13 . 4
0 .0

1
10 . 5
2 .4

7 .7
1 .2

7 .8
18
14
6 .4
- 8 .0

3 .5
3 .2
_5 . 4
2 .3
3 .4
- 8 .1
- 4 .0
- 5 .6
-1 .1
7 .8
- 8 .7
33 . 5
- 1 5 .7
- 1 .9
- 1 3 .6
17 . 4
11 . 2
9 .5

13 .2
- 1 3 .7
-11 . 5
3 .5
22 .0
23 . 3
-29 .5
- 5 .7
5 .9
-7 .2
33 .6
21 .2
0 .0
7 .9
_9 .0
20 . 9
-2 .8
- 1 5 .9

11 . 8
- 1 .1
1. 1
4 .7
2 .2
12 .0
-22 .3
7 .2
5 .9
13 .7
- 6 .7
- 2 1 .9
37 . 5
-7 .4
-23 . 5
20 .6
16 . 5
10 .6

14 . 2
4 .3
-21 . 1
9 .5
12 .7
4 .2
- 3 6 .6
- 5 .7
13 . 3
10 .0
13 .7
- 3 2 .0
2 .0
-2 .8
- 1 2 .2
.9
-1 .9
0 .0

1 .1
- 5 .1
9 5
- 5 .5
15 .0
0 .0
-6 .4
3 .6
- 1 .1
6 .5
0 .0
- 3 0 .2
1 .0
- 4 .7
-1
14 . 1
3 .9
0 .0

6 .8
6 .5
11 9
- 4 .5
0 .0
1 .0
- 1 1 .6
0 .0
11 . 9
5 .4
7. 1
-12 .1
8 .1
- 1 7 .7
6 .8
10 .6
2 .9
-1 .8

12 .6
6 .9
- 1 9 .0
7 .0
21 . 9
7 .5
- 1 .7
5 .8

-4.7
-7.5
14.0
-1.5
-7.0
13.3
1.3
0.0

2 .4
11.9
-11.8
2.3
4.1
-6.9
-34.6
- 1 .9
22.9
-1.6
-4.8
3.1
15.7
10.1
12.3
3.7

7.1
37.4
-18.7
-15.7
17 .3
1.1
-1.0
-3.4
1.2
24.3
12.9
1.0
-12.0
17.7
-9.8
-11.3
19.2
13.7

8.3
0.0
- 3 .3
-2.3
13.2
-2.1
-18.1
-5.6
5.9
2.2
5.2
8.9
-9.4
-7.4
1 .0
17.7
6.0
2 .8

21.3
7.0
-11.6
-6.6
12.8
11.4
-20.7
-10 .6

930C.

13
-11 .8
6
3 !l

- 4 .6
27 . 3
- 1 9 .4
- 8 .7
28 .7
15 . 3
-21 .8
0.0

17 . 9
32 . 2
- 8 .3
14 .6
30 . 5
5 .4
- 4 4 .0
39 . 3

23 .2
6 .6
-12 .4
17 .0
9 .8
0 .0
- 2 1 .6
48 . 1

-12

-8 .8
8 .8
- 1 2 .5
64 .7
- 1 9 .7
56 . 5
- 1 2 .6
40 .6
-11 .5
- 3 .2

4.6
13.5

5.6
-5.1
1 1
-1.1
13.6
15.3
-10.7
8.5
5.7
6.5
17.9
-10.4
14.5
-8.5
-6 .3
12.7
11.9
-4.5

13.3
-6.5
8.8
20.1
24.3
35.8
83.4
-33.3
5.0

0.0
6 .2

-7 .9

6.8

6 1
10 2

22 . 9
-11 .8

2 5
-2 4

17 .2
- 5 .8

4.5
5.7
5.3
3.7
0.0

9
1
s
3
1
0
1
5
9
0
1
9
9
2
1
4
8
8

-7 .2
-4 .4
0 .0
3 .2
10 .6
-13 .8
-4 .5
8 .0
20 . 4
4 .9
11 .7
- 4 .7
-18 .2
4 ,5
-2 .9
0.0
1 .8

-17.6
- 1 .1
-3.4
9.9
15.0
- 1 .1
-1.1
4.5
9.6
-1.9
33.2
-1.0
-14.2
10 .3
2 .0
4.7
6 .5

13.5
-9 1
- 5 .2
11 .3
-3.0
-7.7
-4.9
2 .0
11.4
3.1
14.5
-12.4
2.8
-7 5
7 .9
12.1
8.7

-1
_5
2
1
1
1
3
6
-1
11
-3
2
-11
-1
10
12
18

9 .6
3.7
4.6
8.0
12.5
0.4
13.1
-3.5
-10 5
5.9
12.3
13.2
-29.5
- 1 .4
8.4
5.5
13.5
-10.9
13 .2
-0.8
17.8
3.9
-1.8

2.9
4.5
-1.2
6 8
- 3 .7
9.5
5.4
-9.6
4.0
5.5
6 .1
8.3
-17.6
7.9
-10.3
-0 2
12.5
6.2
-2.1

CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
KIOD

1 952. . .
1953 . . .
1954...
1955...
1 9 56 . . .
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961 . . .
196 2 . . .
1963...
1964...
196 5 . . .
1966.. .
1967 . . .
1968. . .
196 9 . . .
1970. . .
197 1 . . .
197 2 . . .
1973...
1974. . .
1975...
1976...
1977 . . .
1978...
1979. . .
1980. . .
1981 . . .
1982. . .
1983.. .
1984.. .
1985...
1986..,

17 .6
12.0
- 6 .7
-2.2
5 .5
0.0
-17.0
1.3
-1.0
1 .1
5.1
3.1
4.0
9.7
6.2
2.4
3.3
9.6
13.2
-13.4
- 6 .6
8.6
2.8
-2.3
-3 .4
1.9
9.9
9.2
2.6
2.0
2.6
-7.9
4.8
8.8
7 .0

11.8
8.6
-14.2
0.8
12.7
3.7
-20.1
-2.5
9 .9
-7 .1
5 .0
1 .5
4.9
10.1
5.8
4.1
2.8
6.3
12.3
-9.4
-5.5
11.1
- 3 .1
-8.0
-4.9
1.9
11 .0
2.7
13 .7
-12 .4
2.6
-7.7
7.0
12 .0
8.6

-4.5
8.7
-7.9
33.0
- 0 .6
21.4
9 .3
46 . 1
-16 . l
-1 .1

3 1
7 2
- 3 .7
22 . 2

8 .8
4 .2
-1 . 2
18 . 8

13.0
- 1 .4
-3.0
13 .0

10.9
11.9
-12.6
-0.5

11.3
18.7
-12.5
7 .8

.2
.7
.1
.0
.3

- 2 .3
8 .0
-7 .9
24 . 2
9.6
27 .0
1 .3
46 .2
-16 .9
- 1 .6

9 .3
12 . 9
31 1
-9 8
2 7

.1
7 .8
C.5
7 .6
-2 . 2

0 .0
0.6
-7.1
4.8
3 .9

2 .9
-19.2
0.0
7.4
-4.9

0 .0

7 .4

7 .8

i. 1

3 .3

1
5 .i

10 . 5
1 .2
1 .6
8 .9
- 0 .7
- 4 .4
2 .7
9 .9
5 .3
-22 .8
1 .6
5 .9
10 .0
2 .0
- 2 8 .2
12 .3
- 5 .0
- 1 2 .7
15 . 5
5 .9
3 .4

8 .2
- 1 .6
2 .8
7 .2
1 .8
- 1 .1
-0 .4
9 .1
1 .7
- 1 9 .3
-0 .8
7 .8
7 .3
6 .8
- 2 5 .3
3 .6
- 8 .7
- 2 .5
12 . 2
1 .6
- 0 .6

.9
.6
*.4
. 8
.0
.5
- .1
* .7
.6
- #2
.9
8.1
3 .5
11 . 9
-8.9
8.4
-12.6
-0.4
11.2
9 .1
3 .7

6 .3
-0 .8
4 .0
5 .2
- 4 .5
- 3 .7
0 .4
5 .8
8 .8
- 8 .0
2 .3
6 .9
8 .3
11 . 2
- 1 .3
4 .0
- 1 2 .8
- 1 .1
6 .5
8 .1
4 .9

C .9
.2
7 .6
-; .8
7 .2
. .2
3.8
- : .7
.4
4.7
i .7

2 .2
6.2
9.6
7.3
3.4
3.8
8.1
7 .2
-9.9
-3.6
10.8
1 .1
-9.4
-4.6
2 .4
7 .2
6.9
12 .4
-6.3
1 .5
-7 .7
10.2
8.5
4.6

3 .2
15 .0
-16 .8
0 .0
1 7. 7
4 .9
-20 .5
1 .3
13 . 4
- 8 .6
3 .8
2 .1
9 .6

8 .2
21 .6
- 1 5 .7
3 .8
26 . 9
9 .3
- 2 4 .5
13 . 8
13 . 2
-10 .5

11 . 5
21 . 5
-13 .5
7 .0
22 . 6
6 .7
- 3 0 .0
27 . 3
13 . 1
- 1 0 .6

14.1
12 . 9
- 8 .4
12 .7
2 5. 1
3 .6
- 2 7 .3
35 . 7
10 . 2
- 8 .8

2 .1
2 .9

3
4 .4

9 .9
3 .7
5 .3
8 .3
-3 .8
-6 .8
1 .2
12 .6
3 .5
-17 .8
- 5 .6
3 .5
0 .7
8 .7
20 . 8
- 8 .6
- 0 .6
-7 .4
18 .7
4 .6
-1 .8

10 . 2
2 .4
4 .5
9 .4
- 4 .1
-5 .4
3 .5
8 .9
8 .3
- 1 9 .3
-1 .5
3 .5
4 .4
4 .4
8 .1
5 .1
- 0 .6
- 1 5 .6
19 .6
7 .9
0.6

12 . 5
0 .4
6 .1
13 . 1
-3 .8
.0
5 .9
12 .0
12 . 9
- 2 9 .7
- 1 .5
8 .3
5 .1
12 .3
- 1 3 .7
11 . 9
- 1 .0
- 1 5 .1
17 .7
3 .6
- 2 .4

4 .8
5 .8
-9 .8
27 .2
6
18
-15
36
-1
-7

4 .6
-0 .4
2 .8
4 .5
-1 .4
6 .6
- 3 .7
9 .3
5 .2
- 9 .6
3 .9
5 .4
6 .1
8 .1
-18 . 1
7 .7
-10 .5
-0 .4
12 . 5
6.1
-2 . 1

-

-L • • 8
-{ . 8
. 5
) .3
i* . 6

1 .6
- .0
- 1 +. 6
i .4
.0
.7
.8

-1 . .
9 ..
14.0
-14.6
-7.3
4.3
4.7
8.0
-6.3
- 1 .5
12.0
14.2
1 .
9.
3 .
-14.
0 .
5.
6 .0

NOTE: These
reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are centered withir
spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month , nd 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures art




6.5
-27.3
25.6
12.2
- 1 0 .0

-0 .7
7 .5
-8.5
28.1
5 .1
22.2
- 1 .7
42.8
- 1 1 .3
- 3 .3

8.3
3.3
-3.0
18.0
6.7
4.8
7 .1
8.2
0.9
-0 .3

4.0
2.4

6.9
9.8

9.3
2.0
6.3
6.9
-1 .6
6 .8
8.1
-9.3
-4.9
1 .4
5 .1
8.5
-6 .4
0.0
8.5
10.6
5.7
6.9
2.2
-13.9
1 .3
5.1
6.6

11.1
1 .3
4.1
10.5
-2.9
-6.9
4.0
10.3
8.8
-23.9
-0 .5
5.9
6.5
6 .2
- 1 1 .3
9.8
- 2 .2
-14.5
17 .6
5.8
0.5

5.2
.2
3 .3
6 .2
0.1
2.3
-1.7
7 .7
4.2
-12 .0
2.3
7 .1
5.6
8.9
-17.4
6.6
-10 .6
-1 .1
12.0
5.6
0.3
-

7 .4
10.3
-9.1
13.4
9.1
-10.3
19 .2
2.3
-4.6
6 .4
5 .6
5.1
7 .6
0.5
4.5
8.2
-1.2
-4.8
0.0
8.4
5.6
-12.9
-0.7
6 .0
7 .5
6.9
-2.4
3 .0
-6.3
-5.5
11.2
6 .6
(JANUARY

1987)

103

E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States

Duration in months

Trough

Cycle

Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)

Business cycle reference dates

Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Peak from
previous
peak

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870

June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873

J2
18

30
22
46
18
34

March 1879
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894

March 1882
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893....
December 1895 .

65
38
13
10
17

June 1897

June 1899

December 1900
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912

September 1902 ,
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913

December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
July 1924
November 1927

18
8

48
30

40

R

36

50
52

36
22
27
20
18

99
74
35
37
37

101
60
40
30
35

18
18
23
13
24

24
21
33
19
12

36
42
44
46
43

42
39
56
32
36

August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
October 1926 ...
August 1929 ....

23

44
10
22
27
21

35
51
28
36
40

SL

March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
May 1954

May 1937
February 1945 ..
November 1948 .
July 1953
August 1957 ....

43
13

50
80
37
.45
39

64
63
88
48
.55

April 1958
February 1961
November 1970
March 1975
July 1980
November 1982

April 1960
December 1969 .
November 1973 .
January 1980....
July 1981

24
J[06
36
58
12

47
34

112

1
18
14
13

1

11
10
10

11
16
6
16
18
22
18
11

33
27
35
45

51
48
53
56

Average, peacetime cycles:
1854-1982 (25 cycles)..
1854-1919 (14 cycles) ..
1919-1945 (5 cycles)....
1945-1982 (6 cycles) ...

19
22
20
11

27
24
26
34

46
46
46
46

1

29 cycles.

1

15 cycles.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

104



3

24 cycles.

93

31
45

56
49
32

Hi
47
74
18

52
64
28

Average, all cycles:
1854-1982 (30 cycles).
1854-1919 (16 cycles) .
1919-1945 (6 cycles)...
1945-1982 (8 cycles) ..

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars
that include the wartime expansions.

17
40
41
34

2

49
53
55

3

46
47
45
44

4

and II, Korean war, and Vietnam war), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles

4

13 cycles.

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

Year
and
month

II III

III III III III

Foreign currency per U.S. d o l l a r
Japan

West
Germany

France

United
Kingdom

(Yen)

(D. mark)

(Franc)

(Pound)

2.4384
2.3317
2.2752
2.2732
2.2277
2.2337
2.1517
2.0621
2.0415
2.0054
2.0243
1.9880

7.4821
7.1575
6.9964
7.2060
7.0967
7.1208
6.9323
6.7215
6.6835
6.5628
6.6206
6.5296

0.7020
0.6994
0.6815
0.6673
0.6574
0.6629
0.6635
0.6729
0.6804
0.7011
0.7023
0.6948

199.89
184.85
178.69
175.09
167.03
167.54
158.61
154.18
154.73
156.47
162.85
162.05

300

\r

Japan (yen)

\

154.83

6.2007

1.9596

A

A

260

\

\

mm

A

^\

rJ

>\ ft

\

V
V

\

1.6

0.6643

10
9
8

\
\

t

y

r
dollar

Italy

Canada

Exchange value
of the U.S.
dollar1

(Lira)

(Dollar)

•(March 1973=100)

\

1,663.14
1,588.21
1,548.43
1,559.45
1,528.50
1,533.10
1,478.31
1,420.33
1,410.23
1,387.67
1,401.08
1,379.44

1 .4070
1 .4043
1 .4009
1 .3879
1 .3757
1 .3899
1 .3808
1 .3885
1 .3872
1 .3885
1 .3863
1 .3801

123.65
118.77
116.05
115.67
113.27
113.77
110.38
107.50
107.15
106.58
107.90
106.54

V
f

D

r

0.7

I

D

A r

f

V

1 .3605

2000
1800
1600

\
V

\

Italy (lira)

r

1400

Q

1200
1000
800
1.6

u

J

Canada (dollar)

1.4

198' 7
1,317.17

0.6
0.5

J

/

6
S
0.9
0.8

/

/

Urnieu runguum ^puunu;

/

1986

7

\

1 1

r
1

V

r

France (franc)

Foreign currency per U.S

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec

2.0

B

/

Jan....
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

2.4

\

r

V

180
HO
3.2
2.8

n
\

West Germany (d. mark)

v\ J r ^ \\

May....
June...
July...
Aug
Sept...
Oct....
Nov
Dec

Year
and
month

220

^

u

1987
Jan....
Feb....
Mar
Apr....

Ratio scale

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar-

1986
Jan....
Feb
Mar
Apr....
May
June...
July...
Aug
Sept...
Oct....
Nov
Dec

II II ii III III III III III

v—

101.13

n

r

ftl

1.2
1.0
160

Exchange value of the U.S. dollar
(index: March 1973 = 100)

•

/

140

\

120
s—

^N

*%
III III III III III III

D
i

| |

III III III III III

100
80

74 75 76 77 7 8 79 80 81 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 86 8 7
x
This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries
plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see
the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 700).
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Net contribution to index

Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). .
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (thous.). . .
8. Mfrs.1 new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. dol.). .
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent) . . . .
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). . .
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1982 dol., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed2 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
(bil. dol.)
111. Change in business and consumer credit
outstanding (ann. rate, percent). . . . . . . .
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thous.)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
47. Industrial production
(index: 1977=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982
dollars (mil. dol.)
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data as a percent of trend (percent) .
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1982 dollars ( m i l . dol.)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding to personal income (percent). . .
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3

(index: 1967=100)

Sept.
1986

Nov.
1986

Oct.
1986

Dec.
1986

Sept.
to
Oct.
1986

Oct.
to
Nov.
1986

40 . 8

40.7

r40 .8

p40.9

-0.08

0.08

369

3 43

342

356

0.20

0.01

88.32

87.41

r85.90

p91 . 9 8

-0.05

-0 .09

52

54

56

56

0.08

0.08

120.9

120.1

rll8.9

pll8.0

-0.09

-0.14

33.60

r32.31

r34.27

P35.98

-0.09

0.13

127 . 8

124.8

128.6

152.3

-0.07

0.09

r - 6 .52

r-13.59

p-10.88

NA

-0.17

0.07

-0.52

0.13

rl .30

1 .85

0.26

0.46

238.27

237 .36

245.09

248.61

-0.02

0.20

2 , 4 0 6 .1

r2,423.9

r2,431 .5

P2,445.7

0.24

0.10

r4.4

rlO.l

r6.4

P15.5

0.30

-0.19

rl79.4

rl80.6

rl82.2

P186.1

0.67

0.89

100,560

rl00,826

rl01,065

pl01,334

0.22

0.20

2,601.6

r2, 605.0

r2,604.2

p2,622.6

0.07

-0.02

rl24.9

rl25.3

r l 2 6 .0

p l 2 6 .6

0.09

0.16

432,903

r424,508

p426,404

NA

-0.43

0.10

rl65.3

rl64.9

rl65.3

pl66.6

-0.24

0.24

rl5.5

15.2

14.8

15.0

0.14

0.19

0.40

-0.13

1 .49

1 .52

pi.51

79.9

r80 .2

r79.1

p78.5

0.11

- 0 .40

7 .50

7.50

7.50

7.50

0.00

0.00

r342,104

r344,453

r346,668

p355,278

0.18

0.17

16.66

rl6.81

pl6.89

0.58

0.31

r l 3 1 .4

rl33.3

rl33.5

1 .45

0.15

NA

NA
pl34.2

NOTE: The net c o n t r i b u t i o n of an i n d i v i d u a l component i s t h a t component's share i n the composite movement of the group.
I t is
computed by d i v i d i n g the s t a n d a r d i z e d and weighted change f o r the component by the sum of the w e i g h t s f o r the a v a i l a b l e components
and d i v i d i n g t h a t r e s u l t by the index s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n f a c t o r .
See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or
the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) f o r the weights and s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n f a c t o r s .
NA, not a v a i l a b l e ,
p, p r e l i m i n a r y , r, r e v i s e d , e, e s t i m a t e d .
1

T h i s s e r i e s i s i n v e r t e d i n computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in t h i s s e r i e s i s considered an upward movement.
T h i s s e r i e s i s a weighted 4-term moving average ( w i t h weights 1 , 2 , 2 , 1 ) placed on the t e r m i n a l month of the span.
3
F i g u r e s in the net c o n t r i b u t i o n columns are percent changes i n the index.
The percent change i s equal (except f o r rounding
d i f f e r e n c e s ) t o the sum of the i n d i v i d u a l components' c o n t r i b u t i o n s plus the t r e n d adjustment f a c t o r .
The t r e n d adjustment f a c t o r
f o r the l e a d i n g index i s 0 . 1 3 9 ; f o r the c o i n c i d e n t index, - 0 . 1 7 5 ; f o r the l a g g i n g i n d e x , 0.018.
2

16
0



G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS

These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of
the current business cycle. To set the current movements in historical
perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods also
are shown. The selected periods are superimposed to compare the
current business cycle with corresponding historical patterns and to
facilitate critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and severity of
the indicators' current movements.

1. For most indicators, two cyclical comparison charts are shown.
In the left panel, comparisons are based on reference peak levels and
reference trough dates; in the right panel, comparisons are based on
both the levels and the dates of the specific troughs in each indicator.
(See the charts on the following pages.)

The three-part code indicates the timing
classification of the series at peaks, at troughs,
and at all turns: L=leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg=lagging; and U = unclassified.

i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i | i u i

This number indicates the latest month (or
quarter) of data plotted. (1 = January)

l

l

r

T

r

i

r

i

i

M

i

i

Series number, series title

2. The vertical line represents trough dates: reference trough
dates in the left panel and specific trough dates in the right panel. The
current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so
that their reference trough dates (left panel) and specific trough dates
(right panel) are on this vertical line.

• 135

+5
•130

3. The horizontal line represents the level of data at reference cycle peaks (left panel) and specific cycle troughs (right panel). The
current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so
that their reference peak levels (left panel) and specific trough levels
(right panel) are on this horizontal line.

>125
4. For most series, deviations (percent or actual differences) from
the reference peak and specific trough levels are computed and plotted.
For series measured in percent units (e.g., the unemployment rate),
these units (actual data) are plotted rather than deviations. The deviations (if plotted) and actual data for the current cycle are shown in the
tables accompanying the charts.

•120

5. For series that move counter to movements in general business
activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used; i.e.,
declines in data are plotted as upward movements, and increases in
data are plotted as downward movements.

• 115

6. Several curves are shown in each chart. The heavy solid line
( — ) describes the current cycle. The dotted line ( • • • ) represents
the median pattern of the seven post-World War II cycles. The other
lines represent selected business cycles. In the left panel, each line is
labeled according to the year of the reference trough; in the right panel,
each line is labeled according to the date of the specific trough.

7. These charts use the business cycle (reference) peak and trough
dates designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Peaks: Nov. 1948 (IVQ 1948), July 1953 (IIQ 1953), Aug. 1957
(IIIQ 1957), Apr. 1960 (IIQ I960), Dec. 1969 (IVQ 1969), Nov. 1973
(IVQ 1973), Jan. 1980 (IQ 1980), July 1981 (IIIQ 1981).

• 110

-15

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from troughs

Troughs: Oct. 1949 (IVQ 1949), May 1954 (IIQ 1954), Apr. 1958
(IIQ 1958), Feb. 1961 (iQ 1961), Nov. 1970 (IVQ 1970), Mar. 1975 (IQ
1975), July 1980 (IIIQ 1980), November 1982 (IVQ 1982).

This scale measures time in months before ( - )
and after ( + ) reference trough dates (left
panel) and specific trough dates (right panel).




This scale shows deviations (percent or actual
differences) from reference peak levels (left
panel) and specific trough levels (right panel).

This scale shows actual series units and applies
only to the current business cycle (heavy solid
line).

17
0

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
M i l M i l 11II III I Illlll I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I 1 I l l l l l l l l l l M i l l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

DeviActuai
ations
data
from
for
reference current
peaks
cycle

1. Average weekly hours, manufacturing

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
AND
ACTUAL
TROUGH
7/81
DATA
YEAR
SERIES
1
HOURS

• 40.5

• 40.0

-

-1

• 39.5

38
39
40

2.3
2.0
2.0

40.8
40.7
40.7

41
42
43
44

2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8

40.7
40.7
40.6
40.6

4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86

2.3
2.3
2.0
2.3

40.8
40.8
40.7
40.8

8/86
9/86
10/86
11/86

49

2.5

40.9

Actual
data
for
'current
cycle

1/86
2/86
3/86

45
46
47

• 41.0

Deviations
from
specific
troughs

1. Average weekly hours,manufacturing

12/86

• 41.0

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
AND
FROM
ACTUAL
TROUGH
YEAR
DATA
9/82

• 40.5

SERIES
1
HOURS
5.2

• 39.0

• 38.5

40.8

41
42
43
44

4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9

40.7
40.7
40.7
40.7

2/86
3/86
4/86
5/86

45
46
47
48

4.6
4.6
5.2
5.2

40.6
40.6
40.8
40.8

4 .9
5 .2
5 .4

40.7
40.8
40 . 9

•

40.0

6/86
7/86
8/86
9/86

49
50
51

3

1/86

10/86
11/86
12/86

• 39.5

• 39.0

• 38.0

-1 -6

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
AND
ACTUAL
TROUGH
7/81
DATA
YEAR

•37.5
SERIES
47
1977=100

47.

Industrial production index

47. Industrial production index

11.3
10.5
9.0

126.2
125.3
123.6

1/86
2/86
3/86

41
42
43
44

10.0
9.5
9.5
10.1

124.7
124.2
124.2
124.9

4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86

45
46
47
48

• 135

38
39
40

10.3
10.1
10.5
11.1

125.1
124.9
125.3
126.0

8/86
9/86
10/86
11/86

49

11.6

126.6

12/86

c.c.c
• 135

• 130

• 120

• 115
-

0

-5
• 105

-

-10
• 100

- I -15
ii Inn i MIII III Him I I I mm mm In in I HIM In ml

-6

25.6
24.7
23.0
24.1

126.2
125.3
123.6
124.7

41
42
43
44

23.6
23.6
24.3
24.5

124.2
124.2
124.9
125.1

45
46
47
48

24.3
24.7
25.4
26.0

124.9
125.3
126.0
126.6

9/86
10/86
11/86
12/86

Months from reference troughs

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of this issue.




• 120

15

10

-

5/86
6/86
7/86
8/86

20

-

1/86
2/86
3/86
4/86

• 125

-

37
38
39
40

25

-

SERIES
47
1977=100

0+6+12+18 + 24+30+36+42+48

108

-

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
AND
ACTUAL
TROUGH
12/82
DATA
YEAR

• 110
-

• 130

5

—' 0
liiiiMiiiiltiif ilmiiliiiiilmnlmiilii

-6

0 + 6 +12 + 18 + 24+30+36+42+48
Months from specific troughs

> 115

• 110

• 105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
QRTRS.
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

30. Change in business inventories,
1982 dollars

1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111II11111
CURRENT QRTR.
ACTUAL
AND
DATA
YEAR

1982 dollars

SERIES
30
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
7
8

30. Change in business inventories,

60.6 HI/84
33.9
IV/84

9
10
11
12

23.2
17.4
0.7
-5.2
39.9
15.1
-0.3
-11.5

140

1/86
11/86
HI/86
IV/86

120

82.5
76.7
60.0
54.1

23.2
17.4
0.7
-5.2

100

99.2
74.4
59.0
47.8

39.9
15.1
-0.3
-11.5

• +60

• +40

90
80

• +20

70

1/85
11/85
HI/85
IV/85

13
14
15
16

• +80

110

SERIES
30
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
119.9
60.6 H I / 8 4
93.2
33.9
IV/84

9
10
11
12

for
current
cycle

130

QRTRS.
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
AND
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
YEAR
DATA
TROUGH
IV/82

7
8

Actual
data

Actual

1/85
11/85
HI/85
IV/85

13
14
15
16

Deviations
from
specific
troughs

1/86
11/86
HI/86
IV/86

60

• 0

50
40

• -20

30
20

-40

I/70

10
0

QRTRS.
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
REF.
FROM
AND
ACTUAL
TROUGH HI/81
DATA
YEAR

Deviations
from
reference
peaks

Actual
data

for
current
cycle

7
8

SERIES
50
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
7.4
3507 . 4 H I / 8 4
7.8
3520.4
IV/84

9
10
11
12

8.7
9.3
10.4
11.0

3547.0
3567.6
3603.8
3622.3

12.0
12.2
12.9
13.4

3655.9
3661.4
3686.4
3702.4

Percent

—I 25

c,c,c I

1/85
11/85
HI/85
IV/85

13
14
15
16

50. GNP in 1982 dollars

1/86
11/86
HI/86
IV/86

20
• 3.700

_

+ 1 0

• 3.800
• 3.700

• 3.600
• 3.500

• -60

15

QRTRS.
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
SPEC.
FROM
AND
ACTUAL
TROUGH HI/82
DATA
YEAR

• 3.600
• 3.500

• 3.400
8

• 3.300
• 3.200
• 3.100

Mmlmiiliimliimliiiiiliiiiilmiilnm
0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36+42+48

SERIES
50
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
1 1 . 2 3507 . 4 H I / 8 4

9
10
11
12

11.6
12.4
13.1
14.2

3520.4
3547.0
3567.6
3603.8

IV/84
1/85
11/85
HI/85

13
14
15
16

14.8
15.9
16.1
16.9

3622.3
3655.9
3661.4
3686.4

17.4

3702.4

IV/86

• 3.400

IV/85
1/86
11/86
HI/86

17

10

Months from reference troughs

• 3.300

11/70

• 3,200
-1 0

linn iiiiiliiiiiliiiiiliiniliiinliiniliiiiilmiilii
6 0 + 6 +12 + 18 + 24+30+36+42+48
Months from specific troughs

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of this issue.




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Current

Series
number

(page

Charts

issue

numbers

)
Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

604

56

Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles

973

2
2
3
8
3
8
3
8
2
4
2
4
3
8
3
8
3
8
3
8
3
8
3
8

Imports of automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures

616
55

5
6
2
2

58

Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars

974
975
971
100

Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars
Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl
Prices, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl

61
970
976
978
977
972

92

Series

(*)

number

Charts

Tables

29

13,25

67

6/86

9
69

23
24

66
67

10/85
8/86

2
1
1
7

86
248
87
89
249

25
47
25
25
47

67
83
67
67
83

28
334
8
75

25
48
12,21
22

67
86
64
65

10/86
11/86
10/86
10/86
11/86
6/86
7/86
5/86
12/86

4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
2
4
5
1
1
5
1
2

Construction
Building permits, new private housing

12/85

6
5
7
6
7
6
7
6
6
7
6
7
7
6
7
6
7
6
7
6
7
6
7
6

11/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
11/86
11/86
11/86
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85

2
0
3
7
3
7
3
7

9
2
6
5

12/85
10/86

5
6
3
9

2
3
2
3
3
7
3
7
3
7
3
7
3
7

B
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans—See Business Loans.
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
Bonds—See Interest rates.
Borrowing—See Credit.
Budget—See Government.
Building—See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production

93
94

33
33

72
72

1/87
1/87

6
7
6
7

6/86
12/86

2
4
1
2

3
3
12,23
2
3

7
2
6
5
6
5

12/85
6/86
6/86

3
4
2
1
2
1

14
12
13

Loans
Loans
Loans
Business

outstanding, constant dollars
outstanding, current dollars
outstanding, net change ...
saving

101
72
112
295

15,35
3
5
3
2
4
6

7
3
7
3
7
1
8
2

6/86
6/86
6/86
12/86

3
2
3
2
3
2
2
6

C

82
84

20
20

64
64

12/86
12/86

14
14

66
66
75
86

12/86
12/86
10/86
7/86

22
22
22
51

Capital equipment, producer price index
Capital investment—See Investment, capital.

333

24
24
37
48

Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force—See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Labor force
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollais
Loans outstanding, net change ..,
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coinciders, index
Four coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers, index
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money and financial flows
Profitability
Twelve leaders, index

914
35
34

11
29
29

60
70
70

1/86
10/86
10/86

5
26
26

442
90
441
37

51
17
51
18,51

89
62
89
62,89

4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86

9
9
9
9

Twelve leaders, rate of change

110



(page

numbers

)

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description

C)

Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.

35

73

113

Net change

32

72

95
39

15,35
33

73
72

6/86
6/86
9/86
1/87

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4

320
322
58

49
49
22

84,95
84
65

8/86
8/86
11/85

4
9
4
9
2
0

525

53

90

12/85

5
5

20

12,23

66

12/86

2
1

10
116

23
34

66
73

12/86
9/85

2
1
3
5

66

Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.

failures, current liabilities
formation, index
incorporations
inventories—See Inventories.
loans

See notes at end of index.

Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding

Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.

Business expenditures—See Investment, capital.

Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl

Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP

35
35

13,25
2
4

Business
Business
Business
Business
Business

Canada—See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing

Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales
Gross private fixed investment

All items
Food
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department

76

29

Current issue

(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

A
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Consumer sentiment, index

Series title

Series
description

97
11
965

Credit
110

Borrowing, total private

32

72

10/86

101
72
112

15,35
35
32

73
73
71

6/86
6/86
6/86

3
2
3
2
3
2

6/86
6/86
9/86
1/87
8/86
9/86

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
1
3
1
5
1
5
0

Business loans
Loans outstanding,
Loans outstanding,
Loans outstanding,
Consumer installment
Credit outstanding

constant dollars
current dollars
net change
credit

66

Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in

35

73

113
95
39

32
15,35
33

72
73
72

Ill
33

13,32
32

72
71

98

producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index

28

69

331

48

85

6/86
7/86

557

54

91

12/86

11/85
12/85
12/85
5/86
10/85
12/85

5
5
5
5
5
6
5
6
5
6
5
5

7/85
1/87
7/85
7/85
8/86
10/86
10/86

1
7
1
5
1
7
1
5
5
4
3
4
3

1/87
1/86

3
4
1
7

10/86
1/86
12/85
9/86
12/86

2
2
5
3
7
5
1
2

12/86
12/85
1/86
1/86
7/85

8
3
7
5
5
1
5

12/85
11/86
12/85
12/85
1/86

3
7
2
3
3
7
3
7
2
5

12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
7/85
8/86

3
7
3
7
3
7
3
7
2
5
5

D
D e b t - S e e Credit.
Defense and space equipment, industrial production
Defense Department

10
39
36
11
23

60
'74*
60
66

101
72
112

15,35
35
32

73
73
71

1/87
1/87
1/86
1/86
10/85

'5
5
21

6/86
6/86
6/86

32
32
32

5

517

53

90

Gross unpaid obligations

543

53

90

580

54

91

Personnel, civilian

578

55

91

Personnel, military

577

55

91

Prime contract awards

525

53

90

Inventories, manufacturers'
920
920c
951
940
9

Gross obligations incurred
Net outlays

559

54

91

New orders, manufacturers'

548

53

90

Shipments, manufacturers'

588

54

91

Defense products

561

54

91

Defense products industries, employment

570

55

91

Defense purchases, goods and services

Unfilled orders, manufacturers'

564

55

91

Defense purchases, percent of GNP

565

55

91

Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans

345
280

49
45

87
82

10/86
11/86

46
46

64

30,47

70,83

10/86

4
6

346

4
9

8
8

10/86

4
6

340

4
9

8
7

8/86

5

341
348
349

49
50
50

87
88
88

8/86
9/85
9/85

5
53
53

53

19

63

9/86

39

33

72

Deliveries, vendor performance

32

12,21

64

Capital appropriations, manufacturing

965

37

75

Coincident indicators

951

36

74

Employees, manufacturing and trade

974

Diffusion indexes

38

76

Employees on private nonagncultural payrolls

963

36

74

Industrial production

966

37

75

Initial claims, State unemployment insurance

962

36

74

Inventories, manufacturing and trade

975

38

76

Lagging indicators

952

36

74
74

Industrial production, components

78

Leading indicators

950

36

New orders, durable goods industries

964

37

971

38

New orders, durable goods industries, components
New orders, manufacturing

75
77
76

Plant and equipment expenditures
920
920c
940

1
0
3
9
1
1

6
0
60'

1/87
1/87
1/86

5
"5

930
930c

1
0
3
9

6
0

1/87
1/87

5

914
915
917
916
910

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
3
9

6
0
6
0
6
0
6
0
6
0

1/86
1/86
1/86
1/86
1/87
1/87 .

5
5
5
5
5

910c

970

38

76

Profits, manufacturing

960

37

75

Profits, manufacturing and trade

972

38

76

Raw industrials, spot market prices

967

37

75

Raw industrials, spot market prices, components
Sales, manufacturing and trade

79
973

38

76

Selling prices, manufacturing

976

38

76

Selling prices, retail trade

978

38

76

Selling prices, wholesale trade

977

38

76

Stock prices, 500 common stocks

968

37

75

Workweek, manufacturing

961

36

74

Workweek, manufacturing, components
Disposable personal income—See income.

77

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Current issue

Series
number

(page

Charts

numbers

)
Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

E
Earnings—See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Unemployment rate, total
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, Dl
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Exports—See International transactions.

441
578
577

5
1
5
5
5
5

48c
48
40
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
44
45
43
1

3
9
1
7
1
7
38
14,17
3
6
5
1
5
5
1
7
1
6
1
6
12,16
3
6
1
6
5
1
5
1
5
1
5
1
1
7
5
1
5
1
5
1
5
1
15,18
18,51
1
8
1
8
1
8
12,16

961

3
6

8
9
9
1
9
1
6
1
62
7
6
6
2
7
4
8
9
9
1
6
2
6
1
6
1
6
1
7
4
6
1
8
9
8
9
8
9
8
9
62
8
9
8
9
8
9
8
9
62
62,89
6
2
62
6
2
6
1
7
7
7
4

4/86
5/86
10/85

9
5
6
5
6

9/86
9/86
8/86
12/85
8/86
9/86
4/86
8/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
12/86
12/86
8/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
8/86

"5
5
3
7
5
5
9
5
9
9
9
8
8
5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
9
5

8/86

5

F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government—See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food—See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France—See International comparisons.
Free reserves

119

34

9/85

94
213
917

33
40
11

1/87
10/86
1/86

35
38
5

10/86

311

93

33

72

1/87

G
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital.

49

20

63

10/86

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

5
2
5
2
5
2
5
2
5
2
5
2
4
6

90
90
9
0
90
90
90
8
3

10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
12/86

5
3
5
3
5
3
5
3
5
3
5
3
48

263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260

4
3
4
3
47
5
5
5
5
4
3
4
3
4
7
4
3
4
3

8
1
8
1
8
3
9
1
9
1
8
1
8
1
8
3
8
1
8
1

11/86
11/86
11/86
10/86
10/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86

4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3

311
68

48
30

84
7
0

10/86
10/86

4
9
2
8

50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217

9,40

3
1
2
0
48
40

63,80
80
80
80
80
80
7
1
6
3
8
4
80

10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
8/86
10/86
10/86
10/86

3
8
3
8
38
38
3
8
3
8
3
0
1
4
3
8
38

46
60

1
6
1
6

6
1
6
1

4/86
4/86

9
9

1

2,16

5

3
6
1
6

6
1
7
7
7
4
6
1

8/86

961
21

8/86
8/86

5
5

3
9
40

H
Help wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl
Average weekly overtime

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

C u r r e n t issue

Series
number

(page

Charts

numbers

)
Tables

Historical
Series
data
description
(issue date)
()
*
2
4
2
4
4
0
40

28
29
89
249

25
13,25
25
47

67
67
67
83

6/86
6/86
10/86
11/86

310

48

84

10/86

345
280

49
45

87
82

10/86
11/86

46
46

I
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars....
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
lnterest.net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change....
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production—See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Defense and space equipment
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Installment credit—See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate..
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate....
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany

64

30,47

70,83

10/86

46

346
95
286

49
15,35
45

88
73
82

10/86
9/86
12/86

46
33
26

287
225
224

47
40
40

83
80
80

12/86
10/86
10/86

26
11
11

227

40

80

10/86

340

49

87

8/86

341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223

49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63

51c
51
108
282

39
14,19
31
45

63
71
82

283
284

47
45

83
82

285
348
349

47
50
50

83
88
88

53
13
335

19
23
48

63
65
85

76
75
557
73
74
47

24
22
54
20
20
14,20,58

966
47c

37
39

67
65
91
63
63
63,94
78
75

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

5
962
45
288
289

12,16
36
18
45
47

61
74
62
82
83

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332

35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48

733
736
737
738
732
320
735
723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725

8/86
8/86
8/86
12/86
12/86
10/86
9/86
9/86

5
5
7
5
7
4
7
4
7
46
1
1
1
1

9/86
9/86
9/86
11/86

i
i
3
0
4
7

11/86
11/86

4
7
47

11/86
9/85
9/85

47
5
3
5
3

9/86
6/86
7/86

1
1
2
1
5
1

12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86

1
2
1
2
1
3
1
2
1
2
1
2

12/86
12/86

1
2

1/86
1/86

2
5
2
5

12/86
12/86
4/86
12/86
12/86

8
8
8
4
7
47

73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
86

12/86
9/85
9/85
9/85
9/85
1/87
9/85
9/85
7/86

3
5
3
5
3
5
3
5
3
5
3
5
3
5
3
5
5
0

59
59
59
59
59
49
59

96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95

6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
8/86
6/85

60
6
1
6
1
6
1
60
4
9
6
1

58
58
58
58
58
58
14,20,58
58

94
94
94
94
94
94
63,94
94

12/86
10/85
9/86
10/85
10/85
10/85
12/86
10/85

5
9
5
9
5
9
5
9
58
5
8
1
2
5
9

See notes at end of index.




11
1

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
International comparisons—Continued
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
International transactions
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, excluding military aid
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars
Exports of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, general
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Net exports of goods and services,
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, book value
Manufacturing and trade, change in book value
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
on order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers', change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change—See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Total, constant1 dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
constant dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy—See International comparisons.

Current issue

Series (page n u m b e r s )
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

9
6
9
6
9
6
9
6
9
6
9
6
9
6

11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85

6
3
6
3
6
3
6
3
6
3
2
5
6
3

667
622
602
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
669
257
253
614
652
651

57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

9
3
9
3
9
2
9
3
9
2
8
2
8
2
9
3
9
2
9
2
9
3
9
2
9
3
8
2
8
2
9
2
9
3
9
3

8/86
8/86
12/85
8/86
12/85
11/86
11/86
8/86
12/85
12/85
8/86
12/85
8/86
11/86
11/86
12/85
8/86
8/86

5
7
5
7
5
6
5
7
5
6
4
4
4
4
5
7
5
6
5
6
5
7
5
6
5
7
4
4
4
4
5
6
5
7
5
7

255

44

8
2

11/86

4
4

250
251

44
47

8
2
8
3

11/86
11/86

4
4
4
4

30
26,42
245 42
247 47
559 54
65
27
77 15,27
915
11
71
27
31
26
70
27
975 38

68,81
8
1
8
3
9
1
6
8
6
8
6
0
6
8
6
8
6
8
7
6

9/86
11/86
11/86
7/85
1/87
11/86
1/86
10/85
1/87
11/86
12/85

4
0
4
0
4
0
1
7
1
7
1
7
5
1
7
1
7
1
7
3
7

36 13,26

6
8

9/86

1
7

78

27

6
8

1/87

1
7

38

26

6
8

1/87

1
7

97
11
965
914
9

24
24
37
11
23

6
6
6
6
7
5
6
0
6
6

12/86
12/86
10/86
1/86
10/85

2
2
2
2
2
2
5
2
1

69

24

67

8/86

243
242
86
248

42
42
25
47

8
1
8
1
6
7
8
3

11/86
11/86
10/86
11/86

4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0

88
87
89
249
241
240

25
25
25
47
42
42

6
7
6
7
6
7
8
3
8
1
8
1

10/86
10/86
10/86
11/86
11/86
11/86

4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0

27 ^

23

6
6

5/86

1
5

24

23

6
6

5/86

1
5

20 12,23
10
23
100 24
61
24
970 38

6
6
6
6
6
7
6
7
7
6

12/86
12/86
11/86
11/86
11/86

2
1
2
1

652
651

9
3
9
3

8/86
8/86

5
7
5
7

57
57

2
3
2
3

J
Japan—See International comparisons.
L
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force—See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
See notes at end of index.

112



68
63

30
30

70
70

10/86
8/86

28
28

62
62
26

30
15
29

70
70
70

9/86
9/86

28
28
28

930
930c
952

10
39
36

60

1/87
1/87
1/86

74

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans—See Credit.
M
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'inventories, change
Materials, capacity utilization rate
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices—See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade—See International transactions.
Military—See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply M l , constant dollars
Money supply M l , percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
N
National defense—See Defense.
National Government—See Government.
National income—See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP
0
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders—See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output—See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
:
Actual data as percent of trend
Per hour, business sector
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing

r^nitmSl-o
Series {m*wmers)
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

910
910c
950
14
104

10
39
36
33
31

60
....
74
72
71

1/87
1/87
1/86
12/85
1/87

5
34
29

78

27

68

1/87

17

38
84
8

26
20
12,21

68
64
64

1/87
12/86
5/86

1
7
1
4
1
5

917

11

60

1/86

104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117

31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73

1/87
6/86
6/86
6/86
6/86
8/86
9/86
9/86
9/85
9/85

2
9
2
9
2
9
3
0
2
9
3
0
3
0
3
1
3
5
3
5

27
24
8

23
23
12,21

66
66
64

5/86
5/86
5/86

15
15
15

20

12,23

66

12/86

2
1

10
548
7
6

23
53
21
21

12/86
1/87
5/86
5/86

21
15
15
15

964
971

37
38

66
90
64
64
77
75
76

7/85
12/85

15
37

88
87
86
248

25
25
25
47

67
67
67
83

10/86
10/86
10/86
11/86

40
40
40
40

517
543
721

53
53
58

90
90
94

11/85
12/85
10/85

55
55
58

580

54

91

12/85

56

5

49

20

63

10/86

14

62
62
370
358
82
84
21

30
15
50
50
20
20
16

70
70
88
88
64
64
61

9/86
9/86
10/86
10/86
12/86
12/86
8/86

2
8
2
8
5
2
5
2
1
4
1
4
5

453
452
451

51
51
51

89
89
89

4/86
4/86
4/86

9
9
9

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47

65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83

10/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86

3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9
3
9

292
293
614

46
46
56

82
83
92

12/86
12/86
12/85

4
8
4
8
5
6

P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars..
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income—See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital.
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
Capital equipment
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices—See also International comparisons
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices—See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production—See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business ~ector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant dollars
Current dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj. current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income
Manufacturing and trade, Dl.
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income

Series
number

Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts

Tables

20
10
100
61
970
90

12,23

66

23
24
24
38
17

66
67
67
76
62

320
322

49
49

84 95

84

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

12/86
12/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
4/86

21
21

8/86
8/86

49
49

84
84
70

10/86
10/86
8/86

49
38
28

330
333
331
334
335
332
98

48
48
48
48
48
48
28

85
86
85
86
85
86
69

7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
6/86

50
51
50
51
51
50
51

967
23

'37'

79
75
69

1/86
1/86

'25'

98
99

28

69
69

6/86
6/86

51
25

25

19
968
26

13,28

37
29

69
75
70

11/85
7/85
8/86

25
25
28

976
978
977
525
109

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
1/87

37
37
37
55
35

88

25

67

10/86

40

370
358
916

50
50
11

88
88
60

10/86
10/86
1/86

52
52
5

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

249

47

83

11/86

40

59
54

22
22

65
65

9/86
9/86

20
20

213

40

80

10/86

38

69
57
56
973
77
59
54

24

22
22

67
65
65
76
68
65
65

8/86
11/86
10/85
12/85
11/86
9/86
9/86

17
17
17
37
17
20
20

295
298
290
292
293

46
46
46
46
46

82
83
82
82
83

12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86

26
48
48
48
48

98
99
588

28
13,28

54

69
69
91

6/86
6/86
7/85

51
25
17

967
23

37'
28

79
75
69

1/86
1/86

25
25

19
968

13,28

37

69
75

11/85
7/85

25
25

114
115

18
16
80
79

28
28
29
29

69
69
69
69

9/86
9/86
9/86
9/86

26
26
26
26

286
287
972
960
15
916
22

45
47
38
37
29
11
29

82
83
76
75
70
60
69

12/86
12/86
12/85
12/85
11/85
1/86
9/86

26
26
37
37
27
5
26

81
282

29
45

70
82

10/86
11/86

26
47

283

47

83

11/86

47

Salaries—See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Retail sales constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices—See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government—See Government
Stock prices—See also International comparisons
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus—See Government.

34
34

72
73

9/85
9/85

35
35

91
60
5
962

15,18
16
12 16
36

62
61
61
74

4/86
4/86
12/86
12/86

9
9
8
8

446
445
447
444
37

51
51
51
51
18,51

89
89
89
89
62,89

4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86

9
9
9
9
9

44
45
43

18
18
18

62
62
62

4/86
4/86
4/86

9
8
9

561
96
25

54
21
21

91
64
64

7/85
1/87
1/87

15
15
15

107
108
32

31
31
12,21

71
71
64

8/86
9/86
1/86

30
30
17

1

12,16

5

36'

61
77
74

8/86

961

8/86

"5"

14,22

22
38
15,27

T
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields

U

R
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index ..
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars

Current issue
(page numbers)
Series .
number Charts
Tables

23
9

48
48
29

13,28

Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures—See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars

'23"

311
310
26

28

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

967
23
284
285
93

89

37
28
45

79
75
69
82

1/86
1/86
11/86

25
25
47

47
33
25

83
72
67

11/86
1/87
10/86

47
35
40

Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl
Number unemployed
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change
United Kingdom—See International comparisons.
y
Velocity of money
GNP to money supply M l ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance slower deliveries

W
Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany—See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Components
Diffusion index

NOTE: CCAdj. capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.




13
1

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. " M " following a series title
indicates monthly data; " Q " indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.

I-A. Composite Indexes
910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators
(includes series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,
106,111) (M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).~Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(23,65)

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(32,71)
34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(29,70)
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(13,26,68)

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade
Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)

38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order, book value
(M).-Source2
(26,68)

(18,51,62,89)

16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).—Source 3
(17,62)

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
3
(14,17,62)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source3
(17,62)

917. Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) ( M ) . - S o u r c e
1
(11,60)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(12,23,66)

920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing ( M ) . —
Source 3
(16,61)

930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) ( M ) . - S o u r c e
1
(10,39,60)

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1
(29,69)

914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M)-Source 1 (11,60)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)

940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)

23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)

I-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(12,16,61,77)

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis

24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3

43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3

(18,62)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source3
(18,62)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).—The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(M).-Source3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1

(19,39,40,63,80)

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1

(29,70)

(19,63)

6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64,77)

27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)

53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—Source 1
(19,63)

7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M) -Sources 1 and 2
(21,64)

28. New private housing units started (M).—Source
2
(25,67)

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(12,21,64)

29. Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)

(12,16,61)

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(23,66)

114



30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories,
book value (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)

54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).-Source 1
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).-Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
( M ) . - S o u r c e s l and 2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board
(16,61)

88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)

61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in current dollars(Q).-Source 1
(24,67)

89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,30,70)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(17,62)

63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source
3
(30,70)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book
value (EOM).-Source 2
(27,68)
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).—
Source 4
(35,73)
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source

4

- Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source 3
(15,18,62)

91

(33,72)
93. Free reserves (M).-Source 4
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source4
(33,72)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).—Source 2
(21,64)

(35,73)

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufac-

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)

turing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board
(24,66)

69.

70.
71.
72.

73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.

98. Percent change in producer prices for 28 sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
and 3
(28,69)
business construction expenditures (M).—Source
2
(24,67) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(13,28,69)
Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68) 100. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sou reel
(24,67)
Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value
101
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982
(EOM).—Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)
dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in curBank of New York
(15,35,73)
rent dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)
104. Change in total liquid assets (M).-Sources 1 and
Index of industrial production, durable manufac4
(31,71)
tures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
Index of industrial production, nondurable manuand 4
(31,71)
factures (M).-Source4
(20,63)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
Index of industrial production, consumer goods
and 4
(13,31,71)
(M).-Source4
(22,65)
Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml
107.
Index of industrial production, business equipment
(Q).—Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
(M).-Source4
(24,67)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)
Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Source
Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
4
(35,73)
on hand and on order, book value (EOM).—Source l 1 f l Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
2
(27,68)
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)

79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
80.

81.

82.
84.
85.
86.
87.

m

I-C. Diffusion Indexes
950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)
952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(35,75)
961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(36,74)
963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)
964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
42-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard &
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and
equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries
(Q).-Source 1
(38,76)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72)

972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
Corporate profits after tax with inventory valua- 112. Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
series may not be reproduced without written
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)
tion and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
dollars (Q).-Soureel
(29,69) 113. Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
Source 4
(32,72)
Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjust- 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
ments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
bills (M).-Source4
(34,72)
series may not be reproduced without written
Source 1
(29,70)
U5
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).—U.S. Depart
ment of the Treasury
(34,73)
Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).—
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacSource 4
(20,64) 116< Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
turing and trade-about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Trea(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source
sury
(34,73)
This series may not be reproduced without written
4
(20,64)
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
I17< Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The
Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturGross private nonresidential fixed investment in ^18 Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—
ing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)
This series may not be reproduced without written
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
1982 dollars, structures (Q).—Source 1
(25,67) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4
(34,72)




15
1

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—
about 600 businessmen reporting (Q) —Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)

243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

245. Change in business inventories in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

290. Gross saving (Q).-Source 1

247. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

(46,82)

292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

293. Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1

(46,83)

295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)
248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1
(46,83)
1
(47,83)

978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
1
(47,83) 310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
source.)
(38,76)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
II—A. National Income and Product
gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q) .— 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars
(M).-Source3
(49,59,84,95)
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars
food (M).-Source 3
(49,84)
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
3
(48,85)
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
(Q).-Sourcel
(44,82)
331. Producer price index, crude materials for further
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).— 256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
processing (M).-Source 3
(48,85)
Source 1
(40,80)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, sup213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1
(40,80) 257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
plies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
(Q).—Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)
223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
(40,63)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

(Q).-Source 1

(44,82)

260. Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
261. Government purchases of goods and services in
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Producer price index, industrial commodities
(M).-Source3
(48,85)

263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)

227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)

230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,87)

231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars
(Q)-Source 1
(41,80)

267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

268. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)

225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

16
1



(Q).-Source 1

(47,83)

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).-Source 3
(50,88)

280. Compensation of employees (Q).—Source 1 (45,82)
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q).-Source 3 (50,88)
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm busi1
(45,82)
ness sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,88)
national income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)

II—C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3

(18,51,62,89)
441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3

(51,89)

442. Civilian employment (M).-Source 3

(51,89)

287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua- 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
tion and capital consumption adjustments as a
(M).-Source3
(51,89)
percent of national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
(M).-Source 3
(51,89)
288. Net interest (Q).-Sou reel
(45,82)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age (M).-Source3
(51,89)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers ( M ) . —
Source 3
(51,89)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).—Source 3
(51,89)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3
(51,89)

II—D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1

570. Employment, defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct hire employment (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)

47. United States, index of industrial production ( M ) . Source4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
320. United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723. Canada, index of industrial production ( M ) . —
Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production ( M ) . Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(54,91)

502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Istituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)

II—E. U.S. International Transactions

510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q)—
Source 1
(52,90)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)

511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)

(52,90)

512. State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
(56,92)
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Direc- 612. General imports (M).-Source 2
torate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work
performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Depart
ment of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)

616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1

(57,93)

620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)

543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)

(57,93)
651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)

548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(53,90)

652. Income on foreign investment in the United States
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)

557. Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).-Source4
(54,91)

667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book
value (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)




622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1

(57,93)
668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1

(57,93)

Il-F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation

(13,28,59,69,96)

732. United Kingdom, consumer price index ( M ) . —
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, consumer price index
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden);
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
ic Analysis

(M).—
percent
Econom(59,95)

736. France, consumer price index (M)—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).-Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Toronto Stock
Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices ( M ) . —
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746. France, index of stock prices (M).-Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

(59,96)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)

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