Full text of Business Conditions Digest : January 1985

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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Sidney L. Jones, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Allan H. Young, Deputy Director
Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the'following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
Lincoln F. Anderson, Council of Economic Advisers
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Helmut F. Wendel, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly took at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
Which begins on page 1.

Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs,and at peaks
and troughs combmed. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue

iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
JANUARY 1 9 8 5
Data Through December
Volume 25, Number 1

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Al
A2
A3
A4

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

Chart
10
12
14
15

Table
60
—
—
—

Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Employmentand Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

Cl
C2
C3

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

36
—
39

74
77
—

The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds




for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office of Management
and Budget through April 1, 1985.

ItCII




PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT
A2
A3
A4

A5
A7
A8

GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income

Chart

Table

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

48
49

84
87

51

89

52
53

90
90

56
57

92
93

58
59
59

94
95
96

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
B. Current Adjustment Factors (November 1984 issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
97
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycfe Expansions and Contractions
103
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (August 1984 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
104
r
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
*.
110
Titles and Sources of Series
114

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept,

composition,

comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
Changes in this issue are as follows:

other series, changes

1. The series on employment and unemployment in the
civilian labor force (series 37, 42-44, 60, 90, 91, 441, 442,
444-448, and 451-453) have been revised by the source agency
to reflect the application of updated seasonal adjustment
factors. Series 44 and 451 contain revisions for the period
1981 to date; the other series contain revisions for the
period 1980 to date.

indexes, etc.

in composition of

Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained .from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics,
Division of Employment and Unemployment Analysis.
2. Appendix C contains historical data for series 5, 15,
23, 26, 358, 370, 962, 967, 971-978, and the components of
series 26 shown in appendix G.
3. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series
5, 23, 30, 43, 50, and 101
The February issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on March 6.




in

SIX BEA PROJECTS
FOR ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

A monthly report for analyzing

economic fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together many of the economic time series most useful to business analysts and
forecasters. In the cyclical indicators section, each of about 110 business cycle indicators is assigned
a three-way timing classification according to its cyclical behavior at peaks, troughs, and all turns.
This section also includes important analytical measures, such as composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators and selected diffusion indexes. A second section contains other important economic data on prices, wages, productivity, government and defense-related activities, U.S. international transactions, and international comparisons.
About 300 time series are shown in analytical graphs that help to evaluate business conditions and
prospects. Current data are shown in accompanying tables. Appendixes provide historical data,
seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, cyclical comparisons, and other useful information. A computer tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.

HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS

A reference volume con-

taining valuable background information for users of Business Conditions Digest.
This recurrent report provides descriptive and analytical information on the economic time series
presented monthly in Business Conditions Digest. Included are series descriptions, historical
data, and measures of variability. For the cyclical indicators and composite indexes, special tables
show detailed scoring measures and average timing at cyclical peaks and troughs. Verbal and
algebraic explanations of the composite index methodology are also provided.

LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH

A report for the study of economic

trends over a long span of years: 1860-1970.
This report provides a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy by presenting relevant
statistical time series in easy-to-follow analytical charts and convenient data tables. It is a basic
research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students, bringing together in
one volume a complete statistical basis for the study of long-term economic trends. A computer tape
file of the time series included in the report is available for purchase.

COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

The source

statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by BEA in its analysis of
time series are available on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL A D J U S T M E N T PROGRAMS—Two variants of the Census computer program
measure and analyze seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular fluctuations. They are particularly
useful in analyzing economic fluctuations that take place within a year. The X - l l variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as
multiplicative adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.
INDEX PROGRAM—This program computes composite and diffusion indexes and summary
measures of the properties of each index.
T I M E SERIES PROCESSOR—This program, through simple commands, performs a variety of
arithmetic, statistical, and manipulative operations on time series data.

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

A monthly report for analyzing

current economic developments.
Features include a review of current economic developments; articles pertaining to BEA's work
on the national, regional, and international economic accounts and related topics; quarterly
national income and product accounts tables; and over 1,900 major economic series obtained
from other public and private sources.

BUSINESS STATISTICS
For further information (including prices and
ordering instructions) on any of these items,
please write to the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington,
DC 20230.




A reference volume containing statistical

series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.
This report provides historical data on statistical time series. The series are accompanied by
concise descriptions of their composition, methods of compilation, comparability, revisions, and
availability. Also listed are the names and addresses of organizations that provide the data for
the series.
IV

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1959, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1973.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators,
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
sh.ows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order,. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.

Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday




adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.

MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed
as a result of revisions in important economic
time series. The dates shown in this publication
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.

Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conformity to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.)
The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
>v Economic
\Process
Cyclical >v
Timing
N^

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(62 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(18 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(u)
(8 series)

1.
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)

VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(6 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Capacity
utilization
(2 series)

New and
unfilled orders
and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption
(2 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
{4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profits and
profit
margins
(7 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)

Money flows
(3 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and
real Income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

Backlog of
Investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business
Investment
expenditures
(5 series)

Duration of
unemployment
(2 series)

Business
Investment
expenditures
(1 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

Trade
(1 series)

Business
Investment
commitments
(1 series)

Velocity of
money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

1 nterest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding
debt
(3 series)

Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profit share
(1 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
x. Economic
\Process
Cycllcal\
Timing
\ .

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(40 series)

1.
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)

VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(3 series)

Industrial
production
(1 series)

New and unfilled
orders and
deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
Investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(2 series)
Profits and
profit margins
(6 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)

Money flows
(2 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
{4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)

Marginal

Comprehensive

Consumption
and trade
(3 series)

Business
Investment
commitments
(1 series)

Profits
(2 series)

Money flow
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)

Unfilled orders
(1 series)

Business
Investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business
Investment
expenditures
(6 series)

Unit labor costs
and tabor share
(4 series)

Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(3 series)

employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
and duration
of
unemployment
(5 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(1 series)




output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (•) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident




indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "CrC,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.

Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 111 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.

Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
This section contains measures of the civilian
in
the physical volume of inventories held by
This part is divided into six sections which cover
labor force and its major components: Total
private
business.
The
former
include
all
private
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
measuring various aspects of economic activity. purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for The number of unemployed is subdivided into
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
goods are also included.
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
of worker. Also included are data on participation
Government
purchases
of
goods
and
services
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
still others relate to U.S. international transactions (A4) is the compensation of government employees force.
or to selected foreign countries. The represented and purchases from business and from abroad. It
variables include incomes, outputs, and excludes transfer payments, interest paid by Section D. Government Activities
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surlabor resources; government receipts, investment by government enterprises but excludes
expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
ports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
land and financial assets.
government. Also shown is a selection of series
key foreign countries.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense
Indicators,
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which
Section A. National Income and Product
of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national
The national income and product accounts, included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production,
final expenditures for the personal, business, international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at
Section Al shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the
final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by defense order-production-delivery process. Series
income. The four major components of the gross residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede pronational product—personal consumption the factor costs of the goods and services pro- duction, such as contract awards and new orders,
expenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense
government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
net exports of goods and services—are presented in persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
coincide with production, such as employment, and
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as
section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period.
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes. personal saving,
measures of defense activity."
series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
the Survey of Current Business, Part I, government surplus or deficit.
January 1976.
This group includes monthly series on exports
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
Gross national product (GNP) is the market major expenditure components of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also
labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and
United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
the consumption of fixed capital goods, It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income.
most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income.
Section F. International Comparisons
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
nations with which we have important trade
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
income, rental income of persons, dividends, these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerpersonal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corthe GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inless personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European
income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inuct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically senpayments to government
sitive output measures for large parts of the
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1973.
The group of series on wages and productivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price ingoods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1973) provide
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the
and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1973) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.
rates of change for most of these measures.
cluded.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES




HOW TO READ CHARTS
Basic Data

Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)
Broken line indicates actual s
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

\

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Rates of Change

Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.

Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3-or 4-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r 


2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data3
Unit
of
measure

Series title and timing classification'

Percent change

Annual average
1983

1984

2dQ
1984

3dQ
1984

4th Q
1984

Oct.
1984

Nov.
1984

Dec.
1984

2<fQ

Oct.
to
Nov.
1984

Nov.
to
Dec.
1984

1984

to
3dQ

3dQ
to
4th Q
1984

iie
M

1. C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S
A. C o m p o s i t e I n d e x e s
910
920.
930.
940.

Twelve leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

Leading Indicator Subgroups:
913. Marginal employment adjustments
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
,
917. Money and financial flows

156.0
139.9
111 .7
125.4

165.8

154.4
117.3
131.7

167.9
154.0
116.1
132.6

164.4
155 .8
119.9
129.9

164.8
157,5
121 . 8
129.3

164.2
156.2
122.2
127 . 8

165.2
157 . 5
121 .7
129.4

164.9
158.9
121 .6
130 .7

0.6
0.8
-0,4
1 .3

-0.2
0.9
-0.1
1 .0

-2.1
1 .2
3.3
-2.0

0.2
1 .1
1 .6
-0.5

910
920
930
940

NA
108.8
102.8
104.7
130.7

NA
110.4
105.3
NA
137.1

NA
111 .0
107.3
110.5
138.0

NA
109.8
103.9
111 .4
137.5

NA

109.6
103 .1
NA
138.0

NA
109.6
103.7
112 .0
136.4

NA
110.5
103 .0
112 .2
137 . 9

NA
108.7
102.7
NA
139.8

NA
0.8
-0.7
0.2
1 .1

NA
-1.6
-0.3
NA
1 .4

NA
-1 .1
-3.2
0.8
-0.4

NA
-0.2
-0.8
NA
0.4

913
914
915
916
917

40.1
3.0
426

40.7
3.4
366

40.8
3.4
353

40.5
3.3
364

40.5
3.4
3 96

40.4
3.3
405

40.5
3.4
397

40.7
3.4
3 86

0.2
0.1
2.0

0.5
0.
2.8

-0.7
-0.1
-3.1

0.
0.1
-8.8

1
21
5

0.271
96

0.458
131

0.446
128

0.464
132

0.503
139

0 . 4 80
135

0.501
137

0.527
145

0.021
1.5

0.026
5.8

0.018
3.1

0.039
5 .3

60
46

168.15
97.45
90.14
23,394

176.87
101.68
94.17
24,903

176.73
101.61
93.79
24,862

177.81
102.00
94.56
25,056

178.46
102.66
95 . 4 8
25 ,147

178.39
102.48
95.15
2 5 , 0 80

177.36
102.60
95.49
25 ,113

179.62
102.89
95 .80
25 , 2 4 8

-0.6
0.1
0.4
0.1

1.3
0.3
0.3
0.5

0.6
0.4
0.8
0.8

0.4
0.6
1 .0
0.4

48
42
41
40

57.15

58.79

58.87

58.89

59.07

58.96

5 9.06

59.20

0.10

0.14

0.02

0.18

90

Thousands
Percent
do
Weeks
Percent

10,717
9.6
3.8
20.0
3.8

8,539
7.5
2.8
18.2
2.4

8,529
7.5
2.7
18.4
2.4

8,447
7.5
2.7
17.6
2.3

8,233
7.2
2.6
17.1
2.1

8,367
7 .3
2.7
16.7
2.2

8,142
7.1
2.8
17 .4
2.1

8,191
7.2
2.8
17 .3
2.1

2.7
0.2
-0.1
-4.2
0.1

-0.6
-0.1
0.
0.6
0.

2,5
0.3
-0.1
2.8
0.2

37
43
45
91
44

Ar. bil dol
do
do

1534.7
12 8 4 . 6
1095 .0

1639.0
1366.7
1177 .6

1638.8
1361.6
1172.2

1645 .2
1375.5
1186.6

1661 . 1
1390.3
1200.9

1382.6
1192.9

1390.8
1200 .3

1397.6
1209.6

0.6
0.6

0.5
0.8

0.4
1.0
1.2

1 .0
1.1
1.2

50
52
51

213,5

224.8

225 .0

225 .6

225 .9

224.5

225 .4

227 .7

0.4

1 .0

0.3

0.1

53

147.6
134.5
168.1
688.6

163.5
154.7
179.8
763 .6

163.1
153.6
180.1
767 . 4

165.6
157.4
181 .3
766 . 8

165
157
181
775

164.5
157 .0
180.0

165 .2
157 .6
180.7

166.2
158.3
182.3

0.4
0.4
0.4

0.6
0.4
0.9

1.5
2.5
0.7
-0.1

-0.2
0.1
-0.2
1 .1

47
73
74
49

74
75 .2
75 .2

NA
81 .7
82 .2

NA
81 . 8
82 .7

NA
82 .5
82 . 9

NA
0 .7
0 .2

NA
- 0 .6
- 1 .5

83
82
84

6
7
8

LI L
1967 = 100
G,C,C...
do
do
. Lg.Lg.Lg....
do
L.L.L....

do
do
do
do
do

L,L,L...
L.L.L....
L.L.L....
L,L,L...
L.L.L....

B. C y c l i c a l I n d i c a t o r s by E c o n o m i c P r o c e s s
B l . Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
21, Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.3
*5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted4)'.

L.L.L.... Hours
do
L.C.L....
L.C.L.... Thousands

Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3.. .... L,Lg,U.... Ratio
46. Help-wanted advertising
... L,Lg,U.... 1967-100
Comprehensive Employment:
48, Employee-hours in nonagri. establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
*41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
40. Employees in mining, mfg., construction
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population
of working age'
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Total unemployed (inverted')
43, Unemployment rate, total (inverted*)3
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv/)3
*91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted4)
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv,*)3
B2.

..., U,Lg,lL. Percent

.... L,Lg,U....
.... L.Lg,U....
... L,Lg,U....
..Lg,Lg,Lg....

1 .0
0.
0.
4.3
0.1

Production and Income

Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. GNP in 1972 dollars
52. Personal income in 1972 dollars
*51. Pers. income less transfer pay 1972 dollars
53, Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and
construction, 1972 dollars
Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production, total
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production^ nondurable mfrs
49, Value of goods output, 1972 dollars
Capacity Utilization:
83, Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEA3
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB3
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRB3..,..
B3.

U.C.C.... A,r., bil. hrs
U.C.C.... Millions
do
CCC. ...,
Thousands

CCC
.... C,C.C...

.... CCC...

c,c,c...
cc,c...
CL.L...

.... ccc...
L C U
L.C.U....

do

1967-100
do
do
A.r., bil. dol

Percent
do
do

.3
.6
.0
.3

NA
81.9
81 . 4

C o n s u m p t i o n , T r a d e , O r d e r s , a n d Deliveries

Orders and Deliveries:
6. New orders, durable goods
,
7. New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars
*8. New orders cons goods and mtis 1972 dol
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods3
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
•32. Vendor performance8 ©
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles...
58. Index of consumer sentiment <g>
B4.

Bil. dol
do

87.85
37.01
L'L'L
34.12
L,L,L...
do
2.69
... L,Lg,U.... Bit. dol., EOP ... 3 1 9 . 3 0
L.L.L.... Percent
54
L.L.L....

do ,.

104.04
42 .64
37.08
2.26
346.68
50

101 . 8 9
41 . 7 9
37.64
-0.48
346 . 2 0
45

8.3
7.8
0.5
6.62
0.7
-2

- 2 .1
-2.0
1.5
-2.74
-0.1
-5

0 .9
0.7
0.
- 1 .01
1 .2
-12

-0.1
-0.2
-0.7
-2.20
-0.7
-8

25
96
32

NA 410 .62 415 . 0 1
NA 1 7 6 . 5 2 1 7 8 . 8 4
162.8
162.8
161 . 8
110.15 108.73 110.90
52 .94
52.55
51 . 8 8
100.5
95 .0
96.3
95 .7

NA
NA
163 .7
110.82
52.84

1 .1
1 .3
0.6
2.0
2.0

NA
NA
0.6
-0.1
-0.2

0.
-0.1
0.4
-0.8
- 1 .3
- 3 .5
2.4

NA
NA
0.1
2.5
2.0
- 0 ,4
-3.9

56
57
75
54
59
55
58

0.4
NA

-0.1
NA

12
13

100.93
99.92
41 . 5 9
41 . 1 3
37.57
37.45
2.24
2.35
346.20 344.76
61
69

100.80 100.67
41 . 4 1
41 .33
37.46
37.21
1.34
-0.86
348.78 346.20
57
49

96.07
39.55
36.90
-4,36
344.42
52

C,C,C... Bil. dol
do
C,L,C... 1967-100
Bil. dol
do
L.C.C.... A.r., bil. do!
L.L.L.... IQ 1966=100

367.06
161.70
151 .7
97.83
47 .75
88.3
87.5

NA 4 1 0 . 9 1
NA 1 7 6 . 6 5
161.8
162.0
107.98 108.35
52.21
51 . 7 4
104.6
102.0
97.5
96.6

411 .03
176.43
162.6
107 .43
51.53
100 . 9
98.9

L.L.L.... 1967 = 100
L.L.L.... Number

114.8
50,162

117 .3
117 .0
NA 5 3 , 2 7 6

117 .5
NA

117 . 4
NA

119.1
NA

ccc...

Z \ix,\il

92.9

-0.6

-2.9

117 . 9
NA

115 .2
NA

-1.0
NA

-2.3
NA

Fixed C a p i t a l I n v e s t m e n t

Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
*20, Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
1972 dollars
24. New orders, capital goods indus.r nondefense
27. New orders, capital goods industries,
nondefense, 1972 dollars




Bil. dol

26.77

31 .16

31.94

31 . 9 1

30.67

30.39

31 .99

29.64

5 .3

- 7 ,3

-0.1

-3.9

10

L.L.L....

do
do

13.44
22 .73

15 . 3 8
26 .84

15 . 8 9
27 .62

15 .53
27 .33

14.85
26 . 0 9

14.95
25.38

16 .06
27 .13

13 . 5 4
25 . 7 5

7.4
6.9

- 1 5 .7
-5.1

-2.3
-1.0

-4.4
-4.5

20
24

L.L.L....

'•••*>

11 . 7 2

13.60

14.11

13.65

12.97

12.89

14.08

11 . 9 5

9.2

- 1 5 . 1

-3.3

-5.0

27

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data'
Unit
of
measure

Series title and timing classification1

Percent change

Annual average

Oct.

1983

1984 •

63.86
22.00
73.50

78.10

2dQ
1984

3d Q
1984

79.49
37.15
92.52

79.70
28.72
96.31

4th Q
1984

Oct.
1984

Nov.
1984

Dec.
1984

Nov.
1984

Dec.
1984

2dQ
to
3dQ
1984

3dQ
to
4th Q
1984

I. C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S — C o n .
B 4 . Fixed C a p i t a l f n v e s t m e n t — C o n ,
Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.s
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Business expend., new plant and equipment
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars
Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started, total
*29. New building permits, private housing
89, Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dollars

L,C,U..., Mil.sq.ft
U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol
C,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP .
C,Lg,Lg.... A.r., bil. dol

269.22

CtLg,Lg...,
do
C,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100
C,Lg,C... A.r., bil.dol

320.57
153.3
171 .0

NA
NA

307 . 5 9 3 0 2 . 7 0

NA
187.6
215 .1

1,664
121 .4
60.1

1,559
123.7
59.8

20.3

30.6

14.2

32.26
56.3
1.28

16 .49
54.4
0.75

NA
NA
NA

1,745
133.3
60.3

LLL.

-3.6

24.2

LLL.
L t L t L.
do
L,L,L. Bil. dol

1 .91
8.8
1.46

1,895
141.9
60.8

0.3
-22.7
4.1

6.9

2.8
NA
NA

3.4

2.6

NA
0.7

2.5
5.4
3.3

NA
0.6
2.7

2.1
-0.3

-12.2
-14.4
-1.2

-6.3
1.9
-0.5

313.11 321 . 4 0

NA 373.30 3 82.62
177 .0 186.5
180.7
202.9 209.5
205 .2

1 ,703
129.4
53.7

LLL... A.r.t thousands.
L,L,L... 1967 = 100
L.L.L.... A.r,,bil.dol

83.50

81.95
NA
NA

187.1

400.39
187.1

NA
188.5

3.4
0.

1,535
114.5

1,554
128.5

1,587
128.1

1 .2
12.2

10.3

-16.4

18.80

10.52
4.5
-1.97

-8.28
-36.1
1.01

-15.77
-1 .9
-0.53

NA
NA
NA

564.19
277 .61 277 .68
89.53
89.64
1 .57
1.55
219.72
217 .75

0.1
0.

2.5
2.2
2.9

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars3
*36. Change in inventories on hand and on order,
1972 dollars (smoothed6)3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories1
38. Change in materials on hand and on order3

NA
NA
NA

Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book values
Lg,Lg,Lg.. Bil. dol,, EOP . 514.34
259.02
70. Mfg. and trade inventories, 1972 dollars1
Lg,Lg,Lg..
do
5
65, Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods
Lg,Lg,Lg..
do
80.87
*77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales, mfg.
and trade3
Lg,Lg,Lg.. Ratio
1.59
78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on
order, mfg.s
L,Lg,Lg.. Bil. dol., EOP ,
208.59

546.83 5 6 0 . 4 3
270.03 276.10
86.54

89.08

1.52

1.55

220.44 222.70

40.6
-2.98

0.1

0.03

-0.02

1.0

-0.9

B6. Prices, Costs, a n d Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrials ©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks ©

L L L . . . Percent
U,L,L 1967 = 100...
L,L,L... Percent

1.23
258.5
1 .03

1941-43 = 10.

160.41

Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars
79. Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
1972 dollars
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business-

L,L,L. jr., bil. dol...
. LLL.
do
. L.C.L.
do
. L.C.L..
do
.. l,L t L Cents
. L.L.L 1977 = 100....

127.4
60.5
149.4
71 .2
4.0
98.0

Cash Flows:
34. Net cash flow, corporate
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars

. LLL.
LLL...

318.9
149.3

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63, Unit labor cost, private business sector
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic
product, nonfin. corporations
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
a) Actual data
*b) Actual data as percent of trend
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income3

l,L,L.

., bil. dol..
do

-0.37
2 7 8.9
-0.19

-0.56
288.1
0.18

-0.91
276.6
-0.92

-0.34
265 .5
-0.56

-0.84
266.4
-0.81

0.27
268.3
-0.46

-0.44
261 .9
-0.41

155.76 160.54 165.19 164.82 166 .27 164.48
145.8
NA
NA
NA
NA
99.5

150.2
70
195
92
4.9
99.8

141 .7
65.7
199.8
93.6
4.4
99.7

366 .7
169.3

168.4

1 .11
0.7
0.35
0.9

-0.71
-2.4
0.05

-0.35
-4.0
-1.10

0.57
-4.0
0.36

-1.1

3.1

2,9

-5 .7
-6.5
2.4
1.6
-0.5
-0.1

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.1

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
99.8

0.
-0.5

• Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100

156.0

157.7

156.5

158.0

158.5

1.0

.. Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars

1.409

1.426

1.414

1.434

NA

1.4

NA

• Lg.Lg.Lg.... 1967=100
• Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent

219.6
91 .9

218.2
84.9

218.0
85 .6

216 .8
83.6

0.5
0.

-0.6
-2.0

1.3
-0.5

0.22
0.01
NA
0.7
1.1

-0.52
-0.14
0.02
0.3
0.7

0.18
0.52
NA
-0.5
1 .4

• Lg.Lg.Lg....

do

Money:
85. Change in money supply ( M l ) 3
102. Change in money supply (M2) 3
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed6)1
105. Money supply ( M l ) , 1972 dollars
*106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars

.. L.C.U..
... L,L,L.
. L.L.L..
. L,L,L.

do..

Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply ( M l ) 3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2) 3 ..

... C,C,C. Ratio
do
.. C,Lg.C.

219.6
83.1

218.9
83.4

219.4
83.0

220.6
83.0

0.2
-0.4

1 .33
0.75
NA
0.5
1.0

0.3

73.4

75.0

B7. M o n e y a n d Credit

I. dol
do..

0,45
0.66
NA
218.6
918.3

0.68
0.63
1.01
218.9
913.9

0.49
1 .03
219.5
919.9

0.34
1.01
NA
218.5
932 .6

-0.62
0.51
NA
217 .3
922.9

0.71
1.26
NA
218.3
932.4

0.93
1 .27
NA
219.9
942.5

6.490
1 .297

6.746
1.322

6.737
1 .322

6.753
1 .329

6.825
1.321

1 .330

1.322

1 .312 -0.008 - 0 . 0 1 0

NA 129.35 118.51
88.38 30.92
56.29
69.55
NA 97.87
13.6
21.8
15.6
NA 4 9 6 . 8 0 3 8 0 . 7 2

NA
53 .64
NA
12.4
NA

67 .92
69.60
75.30
12.7

82 .02
37.57
95.40
12.1

NA 14.10
5 3 . 7 4 -32 .03
NA 20.10
-0.6
12 . 5

Credit Flows:
33. Change in mortgage debt3
112. Change in business loans3
113. Change in consumer installment credit3
•111. Change in credit outstanding'
110. Total private borrowing

A.r., bil. dol....
do
. LLL..
do
.. L,L,L.
. LLL. A.r., percent...
.. L.L.L. A.r., bil. dol....

37 .44
3.66
39.77
5.0
3 90.99

Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.4) ©
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv.*)"

L,L,L. Mil. dol
L L L . . Percent, EOP

1339.4
1.94




0.16

0.75
0.93
0.81
213.8
888.8

NA
2.02

NA
2.10

0.016 0 . 0 7 2
0.007 - 0 . 0 0 8

NA - 1 0 . 8 4
1 6 . 1 7 -57.46
NA - 2 8 . 3 2
-8.2
0.4
-23.4
NA
-0.08

NA
22.72
NA
-1.2
NA

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Unit
of
measure

1

Series title and timing Classification

Percent change

Annual averai
2dQ
1984

1983

1984

4th Q
1984

Oct.
1984

Nov.
1984

Dee.
1984

Oct.
to
Nov.
1984

2dQ
to
Dee.
1984

3d Q

to

4th Q
1984

I. CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S — C c n .
B7. Money a n d C r e d i t — C o n .
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted1)3 <§>
94, Borrowing from the Federal Reservt3 ©
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate3 © . „ .
114. Treasury bill rate 9 ©
116. Corporate bond yields 3 ®
115. Treasury bond yields3 ©
117. Municipal bond yields 8 ©
118. Mortgage yields, residential3 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term business leans' ©
•109. Average prime rate charged by bank;;5 ©
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit*
72, Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
1972 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer install, credit to pers. income'

L.U.U.... Mil. dol
do..,
L,Lg,U.
L.Lg.lg.... Percent
do...
C.Lg.lg....
do...
ig.U.U
do...
C,Lg,Lg....
do...
U,Lg,Lg....
...do...
Lg,Lg,Lg....
....do...
Lg.Lg.Lfr~
do...
Lg,Lg,Lg....

-545 -3,050 -1,896 - 6 , 4 2 4 -3,891 - 5 , 4 1 0
1 ,034 3,730 2,507
7,061
4,607 6 , 0 1 7
9.09
3.62
12.25
10.84
9.51
13 .11
10.64
10.79

10.22
9.57
13.37
11 .99
10.10
13 .82
12 .02
12.04

10.56
9.84
14.18
12.69
10.37
14.57
12.45
12.31

U .39
10.34
13.72
12.34
10.17
14.26
13 .29
12.99

430.13 447.52
Lg,Lg,Lg-. Bil. dol., EOP , 3 8 8 . 7 2
264.94 300.02 296.24 309.05
Lg,lg,Lg.... Bil. dol
do
lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg.Lg.Lg., Percent

104.13

115.14 113.31 118.46
14.12
14.53

9.27
8.97
12.63
11 .37
10.12
13 .11
11 .29
11 .80

-3,93 7 -2,326
4,617
3 ,186

-1 , 4 7 3
-1,400

-1 ,611
-1,431

4,528
4,55

-2,533
-2,434
-2 ,12
-1.37
-1 .09
-0.9
-0.0!
-1 .15
-2 .00
-1.19

94

9.99
9.97
13.02
11 .66
10.25
13 .43

9.43
8.79
12.40
11 .25
10.17
12.90

8.38
8.16
12.47
11 .21
9.95
12.99

-0.56
-1 .18
-0.62
-0.41
-0.08
-0.53

- I .0
-0.63
0.07
-0.04
-0.22
0.09

12.58

11 .77

11 .06

-0.81

-0.71

0.83
0.50
-0.46
-0.33
-0.20
-0.31
0.84
0.63

NA
1 .4

4 .0
4.3

NA
3.9

66
72

0.7
0.17

1 .6
NA

4.5
0.41

4.2
NA

101
95

0.
-0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
2.0
0.3
0.2
0.6

0.1
0
0
-0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.2
0.
0.

1.0
1 .1
0.1
0.
-0.
0.
-1 .
0.
0.
0.

0.6
0
-0
0
-0
0
-0
0
-0.1
0.

310
320
320
322
33 0
335
331
33 2
333
334

453.79 461 .74
321 .09 317.51 3 2 0 . 6 4 325 .12
123.40 122.21
14.72

123.04
14.89

124.95

1 .8
1 .0

119
114
116
115
117
118

67

II, OTHER I M P O R T A N T E C O N O M I C MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, a n d P r o d u c t i v i t y
B l . Price M o v e m e n t s
310.
320,
320c,
322.
330.
335.
331.
332.
333.
334.

Implicit price deflator, GNP
Consumer price index (CPI), all items ©
Change in CPI, all items, S/A3
CPI, food
Producer price index (PPI), all commodities ©
PPI, industrial commodities®
PPI, crude materials
PPI, intermediate materials
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods

...do..,
...do...
...do...
...do...

215.3
298.4
0.3
291
303
315
323.6
312.3
287
2 84.6

223 .4
311 .1
0.3
302
310.3
322.6
331
320.0
294.1
290.4

222.4
309.7
0.3
301.3
311.4
323.2
333.9
320.5
294.1
290.4

224.6
313 .1
0.4
303
310
323
328
320
295.6
290.4

225 .9
315 .4
0.3
305
309.9
323.3
327
321 .1
295 .3
291 .1

315.3
0.4
304.9
309.4
323
324.0
320.5
294
289.9

315
0
305
310.4
323
330.4
321 .6
295 .3
291 .6

315 .5
0.2
306 .6
309.9
323
329.0
321 .1
295
291 .7

1977 = 100

155 .3

162.8

159.9

161 .0

162.1

161 .3

162,0

163 .0

0.4

0.6

....do
....do
.do
....do
....do

94.
161.6
98.3
103.7
103.4

94.7
168.9
98.6
107 .4
106 .6

95.2
167 .4
98.1
107 .0
106 .6

94.5
168.9
98
107
106.3

94.3
170.4
98.1
107
106.7

93.9

94.2

94.7

0.3

0.

1972-100...
1967-100...
Percent....
1967-100...
do ,.

B 2 . Wages a n d P r o d u c t i v i t y
340. Average hourly earnings, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
341. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business
370. Output per hour, private business sector
358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sectc-r

0.7

0.7

340

-0.7
0
0.1

-0.2
0.
-0.1

341
343
346
370
358

0.4

C. L a b o r F o r c e , E m p l o y m e n t , a n d
Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.
Labor
451.
452.
453.

Total civilian labor force
Total civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Unemployed mates, 20 years and over
Unemployed females, 20 years and over
Unemployed persons, 1649 years of age
Number unemployed, full-time workers
Force Participation Rates;
Males, 20 years and over3
Females, 20 years and over3
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age8..

Millions...
do..
Thousands..
....do

....do
....do
...do

Percent
....do...

111 .55 113.54 113.51 113.75 1 1 4 . 1 8 114.02 114.07 114.46
100.83 105 .00 1 0 4 . 9 8 105 .31 105.95 105 .65 105.93 106.27
8,539 8,529
8,447
10,717
8,233
8,367
8,142
8,191
3,846
5,257 3,932 3,934
3,738
3,731
3,725
3,759
3,087
3,129
3,051
3,632 3,107
3,173
3,027
2,952
1,508
1,472
1,444
1,82 9 1,499
1,463
1,390
1,480
6,95 8 6,837
9,075 7,057 6 , 9 8 8
6,932
6,768
6,811
78.3
53.8
54.3

78.3
53.8
53 .9

78.3
53.9
53.8

Ax, bil. do)..,
...do
...do...
...do...
...do...
...do..,

- 1 7 8 . 6 -176 .4 - 1 6 3 . 7 - 1 8 0 . 6
641 .1
703
704.3
706.2
819.7
87 9.9 8 6 8 . 0
886 . 8
44.1
52.0
47.6
54.5
478.2
523.2 5 2 0 . 6
524.6
434.1
471 .1 466 . 1 477 .0

NA
NA
917 . 3
NA
NA
485 . 8

Mil. dol..

20,635
10,787
6,772
119.9
1,355
200.5

NA 1 9 , 7 6 9 22,092
NA 10,834 11 ,396
7 ,460 6,306
7,128
133.3
137.4
135.5
1,453
NA 1,420
2
2
0
.
8
220 .3
221 ,5

NA 2 0 , 8 2 1 3 1 , 7 7 2
NA
NA
NA
4,916
7,927
10,343
141 . 1
142 . 0
141 .8
NA 1 , 4 7 3 1,476
231 . 4

16,722
3,011
3,536
21 ,513
4,383
2,935

17 ,702 18,552
2,997
3,137
3,844
3,769
26,431 29,293
5 ,267
4,532
3,774
4,113

78.5
53.1
53.5

78.3
53.7
53.9

78.3
53.9
53.7

78.3
53.9
53.5

78.3
54.0
54.1

0.
0.3
-2.7
-0.2
-4.6
-5.0
-2.4

0.
0.6
0.9
-2.5
6.5
0.6

0.
0.
-1.0
-2.
1.
-2.4
-0.4

0.4
0.6
-2
-2,8
-2
-1
- 1 .7

441
442
37
444
445
446
447

0.
0.
-0.2

0.
0.1
0.6

0.
0.
-0.4

0.
0.1
-0.1

431
45 2
45 3

D. G o v e r n m e n t A c t i v i t i e s
D l . Receipts a n d Expenditures
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.

Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
,
State and tocal government surplus or deficit5
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures

517.
525.
548.
557.
570,
564.

Defense Department obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
New orders, defense products
Output of defense and space equipment
Employment in defense products industries..
National defense purchases

-16
0.3
2.2
-6.9
0.8
2.3

NA
NA

3.4
NA
NA
1 .8

§00
501
502
510
§11
312

D2. Defense Indicators

1967-100...
Thousands
Ax, bil. dol...

NA
NA

52,6

8,521

110.4
0.5
0.2

143 .1
NA

NA

NA
NA
-17 .6
0.9
NA

11 .8
5 .2
13.0
3 .1
2.3
»0.2

NA
NA
11 . 2

3.3
NA
5 .0

517
325
548
357
370
564

E. U.S. I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a n s a c t i o n s
E l . Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616,

Exports, excluding military aid shipments, totil..
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports, total
Imports of petroleum and products.
Imports of automobiles and parts




Mil. dol..,

18,387 18,373
2,799
3,242
4,007
3,905
26,313 27,033
4,034 4 , 6 9 2
3,460 3,824

-0.1
15.8
-2.5
2.7
16.3
10.5

4.8
4.7
-2,0
10.8
-14.0
9.0

602
604
606
612
614
616

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Percent change

Annual aver a
1981

1982

1983

3dQ
1983

4th Q
1983

lstQ

2dQ
1984

3dQ
1984

4th Q
1984

1st Q
to
2dQ
1984

2dQ
to
3dQ
1984

3d Q
to
4th Q
1984

II. OTHER I M P O R T A N T E C O N O M I C
MEASURES—Con.
E2. G o o d s a n d S e r v i c e s M o v e m e n t s E x c e p t
Transfers Under Military Grants
667.
668.
669.
622.
618.
620.
651.
652.

Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Merchandise trade balance3
Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in the U.S

Bil. dol
...do..
...do...
...do...
...do..,
...do..,
...do...
...do...

-0.28
-8.23
87.36
83.05
87.65
91.28
- 9 . 1 2 -15 .26
52 . 8 0
50.06
61.92
65.33
20.96
19.25
14.01
13.37

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

-9.70
84.83
94.53
-17 . 5 0
50 .44
67 . 9 4
20.80
13 .63

-14.13 - 1 7 . 5 3 - 2 2 . 5 5 - 3 0 . 0 8
84.91
91 .67
90 .69
88.90
99.04 1 0 8 . 2 2 111 .45 121 .75
-19.41 - 2 5 . 8 6 - 2 5 , 8 4 - 3 3 . 1 3
55.50
51 .83 5 3 . 9 4
54,56
71 .24
80.41
79.79
88.63
19.61
20.82
23 .30
22.50
14.49
15.55
17 .36
18.82

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

-5 .02
-2.0
3.0
0.02
1 .1
0.8
-10.6
11 .6

-7.53
3.1
9.2
-7 .29
1.7
10.2
8.1
8.4

3644.7 3694.6 3 7 5 2 . 5
1638.8 1645 .2 1661 .1

2.6
1 .7
1 .5
2.5
2.1
1.5
1 .3

1 .4
0.4
0.1
-0.2
2.0
1.0
0.7

1.6
1 .0
0.7
2.0
1 .6
1.0

23 98.6
1076.2
324
182
872
397
1201
496 .6

2 .5
1 .9
3.2
2.8
2.0
2.5
2.6
1.1

1 .2
0.2
-1 .1
-0.9
0.4
-0.3
2.5
0.9

1.6
1.0
2.4
2.9
1.2
0.5
1.6
0.6

A. N a t i o n a l I n c o m e a n d P r o d u c t
A l . GNP and Personal Income
200.
50.
217.
213.
224,
225.
227.

GNP, current dollars
GNP, 1972 dollars
Per capita GNP, 1972 dollars
Final sales, 1972 dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income, 1972 dollars

A.r., bil.dol...
do...
A.r., dollars...
A.r., bil. dol..
do
do

A.r., dollars..

3069.3
1480.0
6,370
1490.4
2180.5
1058,3
4,555

3304.8
1534.7
6,543
1538.3
2340.1
1095 .4
4,670

3661.3
1639.0
6,924
1614.8
25 7 8.1
1169.5
4,941

3346.6 3431 .7
1550.2 1572.7
6,602 6,6 81
1549.3 1565.4
2367 .4 242 8.6
1102 .2 1124.3
4,6 94

4,776

3553.3
1610.9
6,82 9
1579.3
2502.2
1147.6
4,865

6,943
6,993
6,933
1618.5 1614.6 1646 .9
2606
.4
2649.4
2554.3
1165 .3 1176.5 1188.7
4,965
5 ,004
4,930

A2. Personal C o n s u m p t i o n Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
236.
238.
237.
239.

Total, current dollars
Total, 1972 dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, 1972 dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars
Services, current dollars
Services, 1972 dollars

240.
241.
242.
243.
245.
30.

Total, current dollars
Total, 1972 dollars
Total fixed investment, current dollars
Total fixed investment, 1972 dollars
Change in business inventories, current dollars3
Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars3

A.r., bil. dol...
...do

...do
..do

IdoZ
...do

..do

1 9 8 4 . 9 2155 .9 23 42.3 2181 .4 2 2 3 0 . 2 2276 .5 2332 .7 2361
963 .3 1 0 0 9 . 2 1062.6 1015.6 1 0 3 2 . 4 1 0 4 4 . 1 1064.2 1065
320.7
245 .1 2 7 9 . 8
317
284.1
310.9
318.4
299.8
140.5
178.6
177
159.6
177 .9
157.5
167 .2 1 7 3 . 7
757.5
841 .3
85 8 . 3
861
85 8.3
811 .7 823 .0
801.7
363.1
3 95
378.5
376.3
394.2
3 83.2 3 8 7 . 1 3 9 6 . 6
9 8 2 . 2 1 0 7 4 . 4 1165.7 1085 .7 1 1 0 7 . 5 1 1 2 4 . 4 1 1 5 3 . 7 1182
45 9 . 8 475 .4 490.6
483.4
493
477.6
488.9
482.0

A 3 . Gross P r i v a t e D o m e s t i c I n v e s t m e n t
..do.
..do.
.do..
.do..
...do..

414.9
194.3
441 . 0
204.7
-26 .1
-10.4

471 .6
221.0
485.1
224.6
-13.5
-3.6

637 .3
289.7
580.4
265 .5
56.8
24.2

491 .y
230.6
496.2
229.8
-4.3
0.9

540.0
249.5
527.3
242.2
12.7
7 .2

623
2 85
550
253
73
31

627 .0
283 .9
576 . 4
263 .7
50.6
20.3

662.8
300.2
591 .0
269.6
71.8
30.6

635.5
289.1
604.3
274.9
31 .1
14.2

0.5
-0.6
4.8
3.9
-23.2
-11 .3

5.7
5.7
2.5
2.2
21 .2
10.3

-4.1
-3.7
2.3
2.0
-40.7
-16 .4

650
292
258.9
117 .0
391.5
175.7

685 .5
291.9
269.7
116 .2
415.8
175.7

748.0
302.2
295.5
122 .4
45 2 .4
179.8

689.8
292.0
269.2
115 .6
420 .6
176.4

691 .4
288.8
266.3
113.0
425 .1
175 .8

704.4
289.5
267 .6
112.2
436.8
177.3

743.7
302.1
2 96 .4
123 .2
447.4
178.9

761,0
306 .1
302.0
125.0
45 8.9
181 .1

782.7
311 .0
316.1
12 9 . 1
466.6
181 . 9

5 .6
4.4
10.8
9.8
2.4
0.9

2.3
1 .3
1.9
1.5
2.6
1.2

2,9
1 .6
4.7
3.3
1.7
0.4

19.0
29.7
348.4
147 .6
329.4
118.0

-8.3
12.6
336 .2
139.5
344.4
126.9

-66 .3
-15 .5
363.7
145.8
42 9.9
161 . 3

-16.4
11 .9
342.0
141 .6
358.4
129.7

-29.8
2.0
346.1
141.0
375 .9
139.1

-51 .5
-8.3
358.9
144.9
410.4
153 .2

-58.7
-11 .4
362 .4
144.7
421 .1
156.2

-90.6
-27.0
368.6
147.4
459.3
174.4

-64.3
-15.2
364.7
146 .2
429.0
161 .4

-7.2
-3.1
1 .0
-0.1
2,6

2 .0

-31 .9
-15.6
1 .7
1.9
9.1
11 .7

26.3
11 .8
-1 .1
-0.8
-6.6
-7 .5

NA
2446.8 26 46.7 2 9 5 9 . 4 26 84.4 2766 .5 2873.5 2 9 4 4 . 8 2 9 8 4 . 9
1 8 6 4 . 2 1984.9 2 1 7 2 . 7 2000 .7 2055 .4 2113 .4 2 1 5 9 . 2 2191 . 9 2226 .2
123 .3
154.9 1 4 9 . 8 1 5 3 . 7 160.4
111 .1 121.7
154.7
131 .9
58.3
51 .5
56 .2
63 .0
62.5
60.4
61.0
62.0
63 .8
225 .2 2 8 4 . 5
159,1
245 .0 2 6 0 . 0
NA
277 .4 291 .1 2 8 2 . 8
256.6
260.9
285 .0
266 .8 2 8 2 . 8 293.5 297.1
259.2
25 8.9

2.5
2.2
-3.3
1 .6
4.9
6 .0

1.4
1 .5
2.6
1.6
-2.9
3.8

NA
1 .6
4.4
1 .3
NA
1.2

1 .3
3.3
-5.0
-1 .8
-0.4

1.0
1 .9
13.3
-23.8
0.6

NA
NA
1.3
NA
0.

A4. G o v e r n m e n t Purchases
of G o o d s a n d S e r v i c e s .
260.
261.
262.
263.
266.
267.

Total, current dollars
Total, 1972 dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
Federal Government, 1972 dollars
State and local governments, current dollars..
State and local governments, 1972 dollars

250.
255.
252.
256.
253.
257.

Net exports of goods and services, current dollars3
Net exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars3
Exports of goods and services, current dollars.".
Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars

...do...
...do...

A 5 . Foreign T r a d e
...do..,
...do...
..do..,
...do...

A 6 . N a t i o n a l I n c o m e a n d Its C o m p o n e n t s
220.
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.

National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with (VA and CCAdj .
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest

290.
295.
292.
298.
293.

Gross saving (private and government)
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit3
Personal saving rate3

...do...
...do...
...do...
..do..
..do..

A7. Saving
...do...
...do...
....do..
Percent

408.8
437 .2 5 5 1 . 0 455 .2
388.0
NA 469.7
453.6
119.0
136.0
156.9
118.1
-115 .3 -134.5 - 1 2 4 . 4 -133.5
5.0
6.2
6.1
5.0

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.




485 .7
486 . 4
128.7
-129.3
5.3

551 .0 5 5 6 . 4
543.9
498.8
525.3
515.3
152.5
144.8 1 6 4 . 1
-107 .4 - 1 0 9 . 2 -133 .0
6.1
5.7
6.3

NA
NA
166.2
NA
6.3

!
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
'Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
"This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.

A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart A l . Composite Indexes
iniy WIi-iy

ftuv. Od.

Aw- Apr

Mov= Mar.
P
T

Apr, Fob,

P

F

i¥Ua;«y Ji;!$

I Index: 1967^1001

910. Index of 12 leading indicators
(series 1,5, 8,12,19,20,29, 32,36,99 t 106f 111)

920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators
(series41,47, 51,57) - - —

930. Index of six lagging indicators
(series 62, 77,91, 95,101,109) s

si m

V\

11 72 73

84 3.985

NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart Indicate length of lead* (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

10




JANUARY 198S

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued
Nov. Oct.
P T

• July May
P

T •

Aug. Apr,
PI

Apr. Feb.
P T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Mov. Mar.
P
T

Jan. July July
P I P

Hm,
T

[Index: 1967^1001
914. Capital investment commitments (series 12,20,29)

915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8 , 3 2 , 3 6 , 9 9 ) ***^£*
-8

917. Money andfinancialflows (series 1 0 4 , 1 0 C T X T T / C

1^^

940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

-a

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 96 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags { + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

ICCII JANUARY 1985



11

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components
P

T

Aufj. Apr.

jyly Mry
P T

Dec. Nov.

Apr. hto.

Nov. ftflar.

Jan. July July Nev.

PI

1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

mn

5. AvflragiB w p fkly initi

(thousands—inverted scale)

8. New orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars

(bi.ooi.)

fin

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower
deliveries (percent)

12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100)
LLL

20. Cotitracts and orders for plant and equipment In
1972_dolars_£bl. dol)i

1048 40 SO SI U2 53 S4 5S S6 B7 §0 Bf 60

7© 71

7i 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, 65, and 66.

12




JANUARY 1985

ItCII

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
Nov, Oct.
P T

July May
P T

Aug. Apr.
P T

Apr. Feb.
P T

Dec. Nov.
P T

Nov. Mar.
P
T

29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967 ^ M L

Jan, July July Nov.
P T P
T
q

200 «J

JTEE

36. Net Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bH. doL)

99, Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)

19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1 9 4 1 - 4 3 - 1 0 )

106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars

111. Change in credit outstanding—business anTcwmimer'
borrowing (ann. rate, percent) ["[77

1948 49 §0 51 S2 53

57 58 59

'This it a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for thete series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 7 1 , and 72.

KCII JANUARY 1985




13

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
Nov. Oct.
P T

P

T

P

T

? T

P

41. Employees on nonagricuttural payrois (mions)
ji

71
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1972 doiars (arm. rate, bl. dol.)

!|

i

y

Industrial production, total (index: 19€7~ 100) /
/

V

130-

WO*

57. Manufacturing and trade sabtfci
1972 dolars ( b l d d f

z:

13. sg %% m
Currant data for thflte terlet ar« shown on pagas 62, 63, and 65.

14




JANUARY 198S

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
Nov. Oct.
P

T

July May
P

Aug. Apr.
P

T

T

Dec. Nov.
P T

Apr. Feb.
P

T

Nov.

Mar.

P

T

Jan. July Jyly
P T

P

Nov.
T

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks-inverted scale)

77, Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sates, manufacturing
and trade (ratio)

109. Average prime rate charged by bank? (percent)

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1972 doiars (bM. dot.)

Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent)

Jui

.

'

R I)

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 9S 56 57 98 59 60 61 62 63 64

80 SI 82 83 8419SS

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

BCD

JANUARY 1985



15

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
Apr. hfo.
P
1

Dee.
P

Nov.
T

P

Jan. July

July

Nev,

P T

P

1'

[Marginal Employment Adjustments!
42-i

1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

HTXI

41*
40-

38-

21. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

uel

432-

5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance
(thousands—inverted scale)

46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1967=100)

70

71

79

8©

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Currtnt data for thttt t«ri«s art shown on pag« 61.

16




JANUARY 1985

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P T

Dec.
P

Nov.
T

Nov.
P

Mar.
T

Jan. July
P T

July
P

Nov
T

190-

I Comprehensive Employment!

180-

170-

48. Employee-hoursmnonagriculturalestabBshments
(ann. rate,fail,hows)
|U t C,Cl

160-

z

ISO-

140-

1051
100-

90-

42. Persons engaged in nonagricuitural activities (mfons)

75-

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)

70-

6528-

40. Employees in goods-producing industries—mining,
mamjfacturing, and construction (niions)

EMI

27-

^

-X-

7
2221*

A/\
90. Ratio, dvian employnient to total population of working age ( p e r c e n t F / ^

59-

58 57-

55-

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

76

77

Currant data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

ItCII JANUARY 1985




17

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P

Dec,
P

T

Mar.
T

NQV.

?

Jan, July
P I

July
P

[Comprehensive Unemployment |
37. Number unemployed (miiofts—inverted scale)

43. Unemployment i m , total (percent—inverted scale)
\

\r
45. Average weekly teund unemployment rati (percent—inverted scale)

91. Average duration of unemployment (we«ks—inverted scale)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)

1959 60

61

62

63

(34

SS

66

67

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for there series are shown on page 62.

18




JANUARY 1985

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income
Apr. Feb.
P

Dec.

Urn.

Nov.

Mar.

P

T

P

T

T

Jgn.iuiy

P

T

July

Nov.

P

I

I Comprehensive Output and Income 1

50. GNP in 1972 dohrs,>Q (aim. rate, b i U o l )

52. Personal income in 1972 dollars

51. Personal income less transfer pa
(ann. rate, bi. doi.)

53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dolars (am. rate, bi. dot.)

260240-

vx

220260 -

^/

180160-

/V^r
140-

1959 60

61

62

63

64

m

67

68

69

7© 71

1%

76

77

SS 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.

ItCII JANUARY 1985




19

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
x kiy
P T

.fi%
P

Nov.
i

[Industrial Production!
47. Industrial production, total (index: 1967^100)

74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(index: 1967=100) ~ X ^
~ ~ 7

73. Industriarproduction, durable manufactures
(index: 1967-100)
C(CtC

goods output in 1972 dolarsTQ

83. Rate of capacity utization, manufacturing (B£A), Q (percent)
[Capacity Utilization]

90-1

7082. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB), Q (percent)

7084. Rate of capacity utizatkm, materials, Q (percent)

o

si

S2

©s

as

m

m

<

60-

13

84

SB

Current data for t h a i * sariat ara ihown on page* 63 and 64.

20




JANUARY 1985

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Dec.

Nov.

Nov.

Mar.

P

T

p

T

Jan. July
P

T

July

toy

P

T

[Or#s and Deliveries I
6. New orders, durable goods industries, in
current iJUaiiTBTSn
~~

7. New orders, durable goods industries, in 1972 dollars

New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (bi!. doL)
-

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bi!. do).; MCDmovmgavg.-4-term)
LLL

96. Manufacturers' unfied orders, durable goods industries
(bi, dot.)

32, Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent)

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

82

83

84

85 1986

Currant data for these series are shown on page 64.

BCII

JANUARY 1985




21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
hpr. (feii
•P
7

Dee.
P

Nov.
T

Jan. My
P I

T

&ly
P

&w.
I

480^

|Cott&imption and Trade]

400 «
3fiO«
300-

56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dolars

(bi dL)

\tn\

—

200-

-

'. Manufacturing and trade sales
iil972jUta.{hLdiil..

100 J
1901/0-

75. Industrial production, consumer goods
(index: 1967*= 10(57

ISO^
130110120*1

no*
10090*

54. Sales of retail stores in curmrt dolars (bi. do).)
7060 •
80-

120-

uo100-i
90-|
807060*

4030*

55. Personal consumption expenditures,
automobtes, Q (atm. rate, bl. doL)

flicxl

?M J

58. Index ol consumer sentiment (1st Q 1966=100)
no*

7960 50-*
»O

61

62

63

64

SB

08

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

8§ 1986

Currant data for theie ierlet are shown on page 65.

22



JANUARY 1985

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC

PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
i. July
P

I

July
P

Wov.
T

I f i l i a t i o n of Business Enterprises!
12. Net business formation (index: 1967-100) f i n

13. New business incorporations (thousands)

Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
kt current dolars (bi. dot.)

Investment Commitments |

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dolars ( b i doi.)

LlX

24. Manufacturers' new orders, capita) goods industries,
nondefense, i
(ULdoL)

Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries,
nondefeme, in 1972 dolars (bi. dolj fTTT

\

• J U L i L

1959 60

Ji uuiiouinfUUii irUiiudvidi LUIIRIIQIvMu <iiHI •luusuioi uumnii£« '»t"' ™ v

(mi. sq. ft. of floor area; MCD moving avg.—6-temi)1

•;• •:.:;

61

62

, r

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

, -

71

72

73

?4

:

''J

^

7S

7©

77

IB

1%

§©

S3L

82

§3 g

'This (s a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

BCII

JANUARY 1985




23

CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S
B I

.

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

Chart B4, Fixed Capital lnve«tm©nt—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
1

Dee.
P

Nov.

Nov.
1

fe

I Business Investment Commitments—Con, |

97. B K M M of capita) loorooriatjow, manufKturiw, 0

H . N6w ciprtal approprtetioos,

QdAW)

(mn. rat«, H. W.)

| Business Investment Expenditures |

MicWrwy md wiuipnwit Vm% nw busiwjs
* comtructinn^mwKihmtann.rate.H.dot)

76, Industrial productiont bmi
(index: 1967-W

1959

60

61

S2

63

64

§5

SS

67

71

72

73

74

79

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

84

89 1986

Current 4«t* iof thtw M H M «r« ih«wn on p»|«» <ff tntf «7.

24




JANUARY 1985

CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T

Dec. Now.
P
T

Nov;
P

Jan July
July
F T P

Mar.
T

Nov.
T

I Busihess Investment Expertditures^Cort,
Nonresident^ fixed investment in 1972 dolars, 0 (aon. rate, bi. dol.)
K-TobbQ

88. Producers' duraWe equipment, Q

[Residential Construction Commitments and Investment 1
28. New private housing units started (am. rate, mints)

L00.8 J

29. New buldjng permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100)

89. Residential fixed investment in 1972 ddar$t Q

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

Ji

80

81

§2

83

84

85 1986

Current tfita for the»« ttrlti ar« shown on p*g« 67.

KCII

JANUARY 1985




25

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
^

Sri*.

Oes.
P

1 Inventory Investmenti

Kiev.
T

J§5i. July
P T

iiu'ly
P

N@v.
T

30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dolars, Q (ann. rate, bL_doL)_

36. Net change in inventories ort hand and on order in 1972 ctoiars
(ann. ratet bi. dd.j moving avf.*—4-tenn1) ~jj
? i ( i i r~
_
Jlik n k j . !__L

31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
(ann. rate, ML doL; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

38. Change in stocks of materials and supples on hand and on order,
manufacturing (bi. dot.; MCD moving avg.—4-term)
IXL

84

85 1986

'Thli It • wtlghttd 4-Urm moving avtragt {with walghtt 1,2,2,1) plactd on th« ttrminal month of the tpan.
Currtnt data for thata itrlti ar* thown an paga 68.

26




JANUARY 1985

BCD

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
i.July
T

July

Mov.

P

T

I Inventories on Hand and on Order!
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories,
bookvaluejbido),) ~ ^ —

Manufacturing and trade inventories h 1972 dolars (WL dot.)

65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
offinishedgoo* ( M . M )

77. Ratio, constant-dolar inventories

78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order/
manufactirijig (ML dol.) 1 1 1 , 1 * 1 i
119 HU

A ;l

- ^

rfCfe-sfC
h

67

68

@9

70

71

,uv\
Bl

$2

S3

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

D JANUARY 1985
DigitizedBforCFRASER


27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Apr. Feb.
P T

Dee.
P

Wav.
T

Jan. July
P T

Nov.
P

July
p'

Hm.
T

98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive materials
(percent; MCD moving avg,—64erm)

| Sensitive Commod ty Prices]

99. Change in sensitive materials prices (percent; moving
avg.-4-term 1 ) I M L I

340

2

300

J

180*

23. Spot market prices, raw industrials (index: 1967= l()0)
|U,L,L|

/

140 •
200«

140'

100-

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10)

200i

1 Profits and Profit Margins!
18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars, Q
(am. rate, bi. dol.) \\J£\
\

40J

16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars, Q
(arm. rate, U. dol.) _, ,
1959 60

61

62

63

64

6S

€6

@7

71

72

73

74

76

77 78 79

80 81

82 83 84

89 1986

'Thli It a wtlghttd 4-t«rm moving avir^gt (with w«tghtt 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
•Beginning with data for June 1 9 8 1 , thli It a copyrighted series used by permistion; It may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

28




JANUARY 1985 B U I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P T

Dec.
P

Nov.
T-

Mar.
T

P

Jan. July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T
240-

1 Profjjts and Profit Margins—Con~|

200 •
ISO120-

79. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj in
current dolars, Q (arm, rate, bH. dol.)

40-

80. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj in
1972 dolars, Q (arm. rate, i

\7pl

22. Ratio, corporate profits after taxes to
income* Q (percent

1210-

81. Ratio, corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj
to corporate domestic income, Q (percent) | y . | j j

V

15. IVofits after taxes per dollar of sales, afl manufacture corporations, 0 (cents)

26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector, Q (index: 1977^100)

34. Net cash ftow, corporate, in current dolars,

(ara rate, bi dot)

fffyj
35. Net cash flow, corporate, m 1972 dolars, Q
(ana rate, bl. dol.)

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

75

76

77

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

JANUARY 1985




29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Apr. Feb.

See,

PI

fc

P

T

K®v.

Mar*

P

T

ian. My

k!y

1 Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share |

:

/

S3. Unit labor cost.private business sector, Q
^ ^
(ndex:19/y=-lW) .
.
•y*W^

H!

68. Labor cost in current dofars per unit of real g m domestic product,
nonfinancialcofporafe«,Q(dolafs)
;!
r—

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)

64. Compensation of wnpioyees as a percent of nafenal income,

X.

1959

60

61

62

63

64

SS

S(3

6?

70

71

72

7©

77

78

79

80

81

84

85 1986

Current data for theta terlas ara thowr i on page 70.

30




JANUARY 1985

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit
Jan. July
? 1

Jyly
?

Nov.
T

81

82

85. Change in money supply M l
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

102. Change m nwney supply M2
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

104. Change in total liquid

(percent; moving avg.—4-term1)

106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (bi. dol.)

107. Ratio, GNP to money supply M l , Q (ratio)

108. Ratio; personal income to money supply M2 (ratio)

1959

60

61

62

33

64

69

66

67

68 69

71

72

74

7§

76

77

JS

79

80

83

84

8S 1986

'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

ItCII JANUARY 1985




31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Die.

Nov.

Mat
T

NOT.

I

P

P

July

Urn.

T

P

T

80

81

Jan. July
P

33. Change n mortgage debt (am. rats, bi. do!,)
LLL

112. Change in business loam (arm. rate, bi. do).;
MCO moving avg.—6-term)

113. Change in consumer instalment credit (aim. rate, b i do!.)

111. Change in credit outstanding—business and consumer
borrowing (am. rate, percent) ["["["[

110. Total private borrowing, Q .(am. rate, bi. dot.)

1SB9 60

61

62

@3

64

6S

66

B7

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

32




JANUARY 1985

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July
P T

July
P

Hov.
T

I Credit Difficulties
14. Cirrent iabiSties of buswess faiures (mi. dot.
Averted scale; MCDjnowng avg— 6-temi)

U,L

\ I VfflTl

39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, consumer instalment bans
(percent—inverted scale)

93. Free reserves ( b i dot.—nvertM scale)

Member bait borrowing from the Federal Reserve

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

SO

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

BCII JANUARY 1985




33

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Apr,, lek
P
i

f

lain, iuDy

iisJv

80

81

te

I

119. Federal funds rate (percent)

114. Treasury b i rate

116. Corporals bend yields (percent)

115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
C

118. Secondary mM

yields on FHA mortgages (percent)

117. Municipal bond yields (percent)

1959 60

61

62

63

64

63

6S

§7

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

7§

77

78

79

82

83

84

85 1986

Currant data for the$« jorlei are shown on pages 72 and 73.

34




JANUARY 1985

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Apr, Feb.
P
T

PEC.
P

ku. Jtoiy

Klou.
I

IP

My

I

[interest Rates—Con.

67. Bank rates on short-tenn business toansrQ-(percent)

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

ifefetandingDebtl

66. Consumer instalment credit (bi. dol.)

72. Commercial and ndustrial loans outstanding i
doiars (bi. dot.)

MX

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dolars
(bi. dol.)
IS-i

95. Ratio, consumer instalment credit to personal income (percent)

/

1412-

10 J

1959 60

61

62

©3 64

§§

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

7S

7©

84

85 198©

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

licit

JANUARY 1985




35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
Apr,

P

Dee. New.

I'd;.
I

Nev.
P

Jea July Jdy
P T
P

Mar.
T

950. TweWe leadng ndfcator components (6-mo. span

fe
I

, 1-mo. span-—)
100-

50- 8

951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span

, 1-mo. s p a n — )
100-

952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. span

> 1-mo. s p a n — )
100-

961. Average workweek, production workers, mamrfacturing~20 industries (9-mo. span

, 1-mo. span—-)
1001

962. Into' claim, State unemployment insurance—51 areas (percent dectog; 9-mo. s p a n — , 1-ro. span—-)
100*1

50-

963. Employees on private nonagricuttural payrafe—172-186 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )
100-

19S9

60

61

m

©3

©4

SS

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

7S

81

82

84

8B X386

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.

36




JANUARY 1985

BCIft

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Nov.
P

Mar.
T

Jan. July July
F T P

f\5ov.
T

964. New orders, durable goods industries—34-35 industries
(9-mo. span—% 1-mo. s p a n — )
-—•-I

196i

965. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 industries (4-Q moving avg.-**-*, 1-Q span»-»-»)
70-

30 J

966, Industrial production—24 Industries (6-mo. span—-, 1-mo. s p a n — )

967. Spot market prices, raw industrials—13 industrial materials (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span—-)
im i

50-

968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks—46-82 industries (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )
•~!

100-1

960. Net profits, manufaduring-about 600 companies1 (4-Q span)
90'

1959

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

85 3,98©

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

Bill JANUARY 1985




37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
to,

Kar.

£n, Jaty la!y

to

Nsv,

Actual
Articled

970. Business expendftums for new ptant and
equipment—21 industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expemlteres

§ » • Jtmfter of employees, m a n u f a c t ^

(b) Later anticipations

(a) Actual exptfllhns

976. Seftig prices, m a t i r a d * ^ (

971. New orders, m n r f a c M * CMj « • ) '

tft

Net profits, manufacturing w& trade ( I g a p a n ) 1

§73. Net sates, manufacturing mt trade (4^Q span)1

1973 74

75

7S 77

78

79

S0

81 S2

83

84 1985

1973 74

75

76

77

78

79 80

81 82

83

84 1985

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on survays of about 1,400
business executives.
Currant data for these series are shown on page 76.

38




JANUARY 1985

BCD

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change
Jan. July
P

T

T

My

Nov.

P

T

1-month spans - -} •3-month spans — f -

| Parent change at amual~rate
Composite index of

920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators

930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators

47c. Index of industrial production

50c. GNPn 1972 defers (1-Q span)

48c. Employee-hours in nonagricutferal estabfishments

51c. Personal income less b^nsfer
payments in 1972 M a r s

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

.
\

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

SI

82

S3

84 ~8§ 1§8§

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.

IICII JANUARY 1985




39

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income
Feb.
T

Nov.
P

Nov.
T

Jan. July
P T

Mar.
T

July
P

Nov.
T

45004000350030002S00200. GNPpoiTent(k)lafS)Q(artirate(bi.dol)
20001500223. Personal income in current dotes
(aim. rate, b i d o l J N .
1000-1

224. Disposable personal income in ctirent
dolafs 1 Q(«if3te r bi.dol)

50. GNP ii 1972 dolars, Q (am. rate, feOoL)

213. Fnal sales h 1972 dolars, Q

i. Disposable personal income in 1972
(arm. rate, b l cki)

8-

217. Per capita GNP In 1972 dolars, Q (am. rate, ihous. dot)

76-

54-

227. Per capita dsposable personal ncome it

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for thas* »rEts ar« shown on pages 63 and 80.

40




JANUARY 1985

BCD

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Apr. Feb.
P T

Jan. July
P T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

July
P

Nov.
T

Annual rate, bHon oofars (current)!

Personal consumption expenditures—

[Annual rate, biondoiars (1972)j

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on pages 8 0 and 8 1 .

KCII JANUARY 1985




41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Dee.

f

I

P

Nov.

War.

T

T

Jan. M y
P

T

taiy
P

Nov.
T

700*
6bO600§50500450 •
400350300250-

:

^rGross private domestic investment—

1

—

i!

-^-

(Rp

-*^*n

/

-A

^

1240. Total, Q - ^ A ^
' " i " i "i

IE* •

200-

150-

245. Change in business inventories, Q

30. Change in business inventories, Q

19§9 60

61

6a

63

64

6S

68

©9

70

71

72

73

74 79

76

77

78 79

80 81

82

83 84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .

42




JANUARY 1985

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services

[Annual rate, bfton doiars (current)!

Government purchases of goods and services

Slate and local
governments, Q ^

262. Federal Government, Q

Annual rate, bJondoiars (1972) |

267. State and local governments, Q

263. Federal Government, Q

1959 60

61 . 62

63 64 65 66

67

68

69

70

71 72

73

74 75 76

77

78 79

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .

B C D JANUARY 1985



43

OTHER IMPORTANT E C »
I A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A5. Foreign Trade
P T

P

1 Annual rate, Wtoi doiars (arrefit)|-

hOO-i

253. Imports of goods and servtots, Q

252. Exports of goods and services, Q

250. Net exports of goods and services, Q

Annual rate, biondoiars (1972)

256. Exports of goods and services, Q—*~

257. Imports of goods and servkts, Q

255. Net exports of goods and services, Q

1959 60

61

62

S3

l»4

SB

72

7$

74

75

76

7?

78

79

80

il

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for t t m o saries are shown on page 82.

44




JANUARY 1985

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
Apr. Feb.
P
T

Nov.
P

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Mar.
T

Jan. Jufy July
P I P

Nov.
T

[Annual rate, billion dollars (current)|

340© 300026002200-

1400'

1000-

280. Compensation of employees, Q

360-

adjustments, Q

wtHi inventory valuation and coital consumption

240 «
200180160H0120-

5©-

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
284. Rental income of persons with capita!
consumption adjustment, Q
/

20-

101959 60

6X

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

7S

76

77

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

KCII

JANUARY 1985




45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A I

NATIONAL. INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A7. Saving
Dee.

Apr. Feb.
P
T

Kcv.
P

P I P

I

[Annual rate, bloo doiars (current))
60!) <

400'
3S0'
300-

290. Gross saving (private and governmeot), Q

298. government surplus or deficit, Q

293. Personal saving rate, Q

X
1099

60

61

^

©3

64

©S

@@

d

%%

113

84

85

1986

Current data for thtt« terltt «re shown on pages 82 and 63,

46




JANUARY 1985

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC I E !
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
Apr. Feb.
P
T

Oee.
P

Nov.
P

Nov.
T

i. July
T

July
P

Nov.
T

[Percent of GNP 1

235. Personal consumption expenditures, Q

268. State and local government purchases
of goods and services, Q
15-

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q

248, (Presidential fixed investment, Q
5-

249. Residential fixed investment, Q
0-

K

247. Change h business inventories, Q

r

251. Net exports of goods and services, Q
-5-

IPercent of National Income]
80-

64. Compensation of employees, Q
75-

10 •

85*

15-

287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments, Q

10-

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q

1959 60

61

§2

63

§4

6S

68

69

70

71

72

73

7§

7%

77

82

S3

84

®S 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

IICII JANUARY 1985




47

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart B l . Price Movements
Nov.

I'M, I Ml'/
P I

IVJar.

lulv
P

Jan. JuSy M y
P T'
P

Nov.
P

NOW.

I Index: 1972^1001

| Percent ctoge & annual rate |

310c. Impfcit price deflator,
GNP (1-Qspan)
iv

310, Implicit price deflator, GNP, Q

140 J

311c. Fixed-w#rted price bdex, gross business product ( H T v a n )

311. fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product, Q

1073

74

?e

76

77

7B

79

8@

81

S2

83

84 1985

1373 74

75

76

77

78

79 80

81

82 83

84 1985

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.

48




JANUARY 1985

licit

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
Apr.

Feb.

P

T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Uov. Mar.
P
T

Jan. July July HQV.
P T
P
T

I Index: 1967-1001
300-

Consumer prices—
220^

140*

| Percent change at annual rate |
••20-

320c. All items (6-month span)

U0-

0-

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
200180160-

341. Real average hourly earnings of production <
workers, private nonfarm economy1 _ _

120100-

Average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy (current dollars)1
160140-

346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q

120100-

60-

345. Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars)

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

8©

'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.

I ( C D JANUARY 1985




49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC M1EASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
Apr,

Oes.

P

P

Nov.

Mov.

Mat

T

P

T

.n. July

July

Nav.

I Percent change]

6-iiwnBi.spans (aim, rate)

\ , ft

Change in average hourly earnings of production
workrn, private fxmf arm i
340c. fctrent-dolar e a m i n g s ^ ^ ^ ^

341c. Real earnings *,

Changs in average hourly compensation, al employees,
nonhmi business sector, Q—
T - ( ( u i w spans (aim. rate)

345c. Current-doiar compensation

+10

+ 10'

+5-

-5-

Negodaied wage and benefit decisions, al industries—
34$, First year average changes, Q (am. rate)
319. Average changes over ife of
i contract, Q (arm. rate)

358. Output per hour, al persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q

370c. Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q

4-quartcr spans
1959 60

61

62

63

64

[Percent change |

v

It 73

76

77

7i

79

HG

81

8?

83

84

88 1986

'Adjusted for ovartime (In manufacturing only) and Interindustry amployment shifts and seasonality. 'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to matte them comparable
with the annuatlzed 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.

50



JANUARY 1985 I M J )

OTHER I
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major C o m p o n e n t s

441. Civilian labor forceimfcnsL

Labor force participation rates (percent)—
451. Males 20 years and over

453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age

452. Females 20 years and over
Number unemployed (mions)
37. Total unemployed

444. Males
and over

446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age

447. Number unemployed, fujljwne
Workers (miions)

Number eh^yHparPtime lor economic
1959 60

61

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

JANUARY 1985




51

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures
Apr,
P

Kelt,

Dec:.

Nov.

Mar.

T

P

P

1

Jan. Jy!y
P

T

July
P

^

y

=

T

[Annual rate, bion doiars (current)]
UOO-i

l!Yl

1100900700-

S0O-

502. Federal Government expemfitures, Q

1

300-

7

501. Federal Government receipts, Q
100J

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q

700*1
600500400-

511. State and local government receipts, Q

300-

200-

512. State and local government expenditures, Q
100+ 80+60-

510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q

+ 40+ 200-

»©

SI

62

S3

84

m

70

71 72 73 74 75 70 77 78 79 SO 81 82 83 84 85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

52




JANUARY

1985

BCD

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Jan. July
P

T

July

Nov.

P

T

30 -i
26-

Measures of Defense Activity |

221814-

517. Defense Department gross obligates
(bl. dol^llKS moving avg.-6-tom)

10201816141210-

6-

525. Defense Department mitary prime contract awards
(fail, dol.; MCD movii# ^ - 6 - t e r m )
4J

18016014012010080-

543. Defense Department
6012-|
111098765-

rers' new orders, dtffeteej products

cj$r to moving

mJ

4-

3-

2-1

1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

KCII JANUARY 1985




53

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D 2 . Defense Indicators—Continued
hpt. hit),
P
i

Dee,

Nov.
P

P

T

I

P

[intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity] '\
557. Output of defense and space equipment (index: 1967*100)

\^L

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (bi. dot.)

561. Manufacturers' unfled orders, delmsi products (bi. dot.)
?4-

IS*

580. Defense Department net outlays, mitary functions and mitary
assistance (HI $)!.; MCD moving avg.~6-term)
8*
87*
6-

583. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products

S-

bldiMCD

3«

19B9

m

61

$2

63

04

(SB

71

1% 73

75

76

77

78

7®

80

81

83

84

8S 1986

Currtnt daU for thtM t*rl«t art thown on pag* 91.

54



JANUARY 1985

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASUf
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
' Apr. Feb.
P T

Dec.

Wov.

Nov.

Mar.

ten. July

July

P

T

P

T

P I

p

llnttijjnediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Opn.[

,j!

jj

570. Employment in defense products industries (mions)

Defense Department personnel (mions)—

\

577. Mlary, active duty

i

£2:
578. Civlan, direct hire employment

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and "services for national
-*•
'
defense,i, Q (arm. rate, bl. dot.) —f—

565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent)

1959 SO

SIL

62

S3

§4

SS

66

67

09

70

71

72

81

Wl

Current data for these seriet are shown on page 9 1 .

JANUARY 1985




55

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart E l . Merchandise Trade
Apr.

Feb.

Dec.

Nov.

Nev.

P

T

P

T

P

Jan. July
P

July

Nov.

T

P

T

80

81

602. Exports excluding military aid shipments
(ML doi.; MCD moving avg,—5-term)

ij
f

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products
(ML doL)

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
(by. dot.)

612. General imports (bil. del.; MCD moving avg.—4-term)

v

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products

616. Imports of automobles and parts (bi. dol.)

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are show-i on page 92.

56




JANUARY 1985

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
Jan. July
T

July

Nov.

p

T

I Annual rate, billion dollars 1

Excess of receipts
Excess of payments

667.

Balance on goods and services, Q

Merchandise, adjusted

622. Merchandise trade balance, Q

620. Imports, Q

651.

Income on U.S. investments abroad, Q

income on roreign investments in me U.5

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

ISCII JANUARY 1985




57

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart F l . Industrial Production
iy.

P

P

I

Jam Iiiiy
P ?'

(liar,

T

!

kiy
P

Sov.
T

[Index: 1987-lOOl

Industrial production—

721.

47. United States'

>"••

umeo n n o o n i

«

7J

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Currant d«ta tor thtt* urttt ar« shown on pa§• 94.

58




JANUARY 1985

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC 6 M S W 1 S
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Chart F2. Consumer Prices

Chart F3. Stock Prices
Jan. July
P T

[percent change at annual rate

July
P

Nov.
T

Jan.

July

F

16~nx>nth spans | j i

T

July
P

Nov.
T

1 Index: 1967^1001

Consumer prices—
320c. United States

735c. West Germany

742. United Kingdom

1973 74

75

7§

11

78

- f

7B SO

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

ltd)

JANUARY 1985




59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

COMPOSITE INDEXES

Year
and
month

910. Index of
12 leading indicators {series
1, 5,8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
99,106,111)

(1967-100)

920. Index of
4 roughly
coincident indicators (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

(1967 = 100)

930. Index of
6 lagging indicators (series
62,77,91,
95,101, 109)

(1967 = 100)

940. Ratio,
coincident
index to
lagging index

(1967 = 100)

Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
{series 12, 20,
29)

(1967 = 100)

915. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)

(1967 = 100)

916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)

(1967-100)

917. Money
and financial
flows (series
104, 106, 111)

(1967 = 100)

1982
l

135,
135.
134.

138.4
139.9
139.2

126.1
125.3
125.1

109.8
111.
111.

104.
104.
104.0

96.7
96.5
96.6

94,
93,
92.

123.3
122
122

April .
May .
June .

136.0
136.2
135.5

138.0
138.8
137.3

125.9
125.1
124.8

109.6
111.0
110.0

104,
104,
102.9

96.4
97.1
97.6

93.1
93.0
92.4

123.0
122.4
122.2

July
August
September . .

136,2
136.1
137.5

136.
135,
134.

124.3
122.3
121.4

109.7
110.5
110.8

103,
102,
103.

97.8
98,
98.

92
92,
93,

122,
124,
124,

October
November . .
December . .

138.6
139.4
140.9

132,
132,
132.6

120.2
118.2
116.7

110.6
112.3
113.6

104,
105,
107.0

98.0
97.0
96.4

95,
95,
96.4

122,
122,
122.5

January
February . . ,
March

145.2
147.4
150.2

134,
133.
134.6

115.7
115.8
114.4

116.1
115.3
117.7

106.3
107.0
107.2

97,
99.
101.

97.6
98.6
100.5

127.2
129.1
129.8

April
May
June

152.
154
157.3

135.6
137.9
139.8

113.5
111.0
109.8

119,
124,
127.3

107.7
109.3
110.3

101,
102,
102.5

102.5
104.6
105.7

129.7
129.0
131.5

July
August
September . .

158.2
158.9
160.0

140.7
140.8
143.3

109.7
110.3
109.7

128.3
127.7
130.6

109,
108.
109.

103.1
104.4
104.7

106.5
107.0
107.9

132,
132,
130,

October
November . . ,
December . . ,

162.4
162.5
163.4

145.0
145.9
147.5

109.6
110.0
110.9

132,
132,
133.0

110.4
110.1
109.2

105.4
105.2
106.1

108.4
108.6
108.8

131.1
132.0
133.9

164.5
166.9
167.4

149,
150,
151.

rlO9.8
rill.3
rll2.9

E>rl36.2
rl35.3
rl33.7

110,

106,
106,
107,

109.2
108.4
109.3

rl33.4
rl34.8
•rl36.0

168.2
©168.5
166.9

152.6
153.9
155.5

rll4.5
116.3
rll7.6

rl33.3
132.3
rl32.2

111.0
111.0
110.9

107.9

110.1
110.8
110.5

rl36.7
rl38.5
rl38.8

July
August
September , . .

rl64.0
rl63.9
rl65.2

155.
155.
156.0

H18.9
rll9.9
rl21.0

rl31.0
rl29.9
rl28.9

rlO9.6
rlO9.8
rlO9.9

103.7

110.3
111.7
112.1

rl38.1
rl37.3
rl37.2

October
November . . .
December . . .

rl64.2
165.2
M64.9

rl56.2
157.5
E> 158.9

H)rl22.2

H27.8
rl29.4
pl30.7

rlO9.6
rllO.5
plO8.7

rlO3.7
rlO3.O
P102.7

112.0
[H>pll2.2
(NA)

rl36.4
rl37.9
(H)pl39.8

January .
February
March . .

1983

1984

January
February
March
April
May
June

3

121.7
M21.6

Ill,

E>107.9

106.0
104.6
H03.4

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e ' \ estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
'Includes a substitute value for series 1. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the March 1982 issue.
3
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
3
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
"Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

60



JANUARY 1985

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

0 1

Minor Economic
Process
L, I, L

1. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing

L, C, L

5. Average weekly
initial claims, State
unemployment
insurancel

60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising to persons
unemployed

(Ratio)

(Thous.)

(Hours)

(Hours)

L, Lg, U

L, C, L

21. Average weekly
overtime hours,
production workers,
manufacturing

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Timing Class

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

U, C, C

L, Lg, U

46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers

48. Employee-hours
in nonagncultural
establishments

(1967-100)

(Ann, rate,
bil. hours)

Revised2
1982
January
February
March

37.4
39.5
39.1

2.3
2.4
2.3

563
514
566

0.336
0.316
0.288

106
103
96

164.24
168.94
168.32

April
May
June

39.0
39.1
39.1

2.4
2.3
2.3

566
585
551

0.255
0.248
0.240

88
87
85

167.52
167.63
166.55

July.
August
September . . .

39.1
39.0
38.8

2,3
2.3
2.3

533
605
653

0.228
0.213
0.194

83
78
73

165.91
165.52
165.14

October
November . . .
December .. .

38.9
39.0
39.1

2.3
2.3
2.3

651
616
531

0.196
0.195
0.208

76
78
83

164.36
163.50
164.61

January
February
March

39.5
39.1
39.7

2.4
2.4
2.6

507
478
479

0.215
0.214
0.216

83
83
83

165.75
164.04
165.06

April
May
June

40,
39.
40,

2.9
2.7
2.9

470
453
406

0.213
0.230
0.243

81
87
92

166.67
167.07
167.47

July
August
September . . .

40,
40,
40.

3.0
3.0
3.2

380
408
387

0.283
0.273
0.284

100
97
98

168.29
168.25
170.68

October
November . . .
December . . .

40.6
40.6
40.6

3.3
3.3
3.4

386
381
378

0.335
0.359
0.391

111
114
121

171.12
170.69
172.73

January
February
March

40.9
40.9
40.7

3.5
3.5
3.5

364
0)345
348

0.406
0.435
0.420

123
129
124

174.01
175.02
174.40

April
May
June

.1
40.6
40.6

H>3.7
3.3
3.3

360
348
350

0.419
0.435
0.485

124
125
134

176.89
176.31
176.99

July
August
September . . .

40.5
40.5
40.6

3.3
3.3
3.3

365
358
368

0.484
0.449
0.459

138
128
129

177.06
177.49
178.87

October
November . . .
December . . .

40.4
40.5
p40.7

3.3
3.4
p3.4

405
397
386

0.480
0.501
E)p0.527

135
rl37

178.39
rl77.36
[R>pl79.62

1983

1984

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
*Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.

IK II

JANUARY 1985




61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment-Continued

u, c, c

C.C.C

L, C. U

U, Lg, U

42, Persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey

41, Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment
survey

40. Employees
in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction)

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to total
population of
working age

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

Timing Class

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

2

2

Revised

Revised

1982

L, Lg, U

L(Lg,U

37. Number of
persons unemployed, labor
force survey

43. Unemployment rate,
total

45. Average
weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs l

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

L, Lg, U

2

Revised

C3)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Weeks)

(Percent)

Revised2

Ca)

January
February
March . . . . . . .

96,344
96,414
96,346

90,402
90,409
90,301

24,691
24,667
24,524

57.49
57.46
57.37

9,384
9,716
9,911

8.6
8.9
9.0

4.1
4.1
4.3

13.2
14.1
14.1

2.2
2.5
2.7

April
May
June

96,217
96,652
96,108

90,059
90,006
89,755

24,299
24,165
23,920

57.23
57.46
57.03

10,267
10,426
10,555

r9.3
9.4
r9.6

4.5
4.6
4.6

14.5
14.9
15.6

2.8
2.9
3.1

July
August
September . . . .

96,066
96,228
96,122

89,412
89,208
89,103

23,716
23,528
23,376

56.99
57.03
56.89

10,851
10,886
11,216

r9.8
r9.8
rlO.l

4.6
4.7
4.9

15.4
16.
16.

r3.2
3.4
3.5

October
November
December

95,725
95,615
95,650

88,820
88,674
88,646

23,101
22,930
22,873

56.66
56.55
56.48

11,525
11,899
11,891

10.4
10.7
10.7

5.1
5.1
4.8

17.2
17.3
18.4

3.8
4.0
4.2

January
February
March

95,792
95,756
95,897

88,827
88,728
88,945

22,959
22,827
22,832

56.53
56.43
56.47

11,513
11,556
11,430

10.4
10.4
10.3

4.5
4.5
4.4

19.0
19.2
19.3

4.2
4.2
r4.2

April
May
June

96,209
96,282
96,987

89,259
89,578
89,927

22,949
23,087
23,241

56.59
56.56
56.97

11,316
11,258
11,273

10.2
rlO.2
rlO.l

4.4
4.1
3.9

19.3
20.3
20.8

r3.9
r4.0
4.0

July
August
September . . . .

97,691
98,101
98,675

90,274
89,918
91,018

23,414
23,532
23,669

57.32
57.51
57.68

10,534
10,595
10,281

r9.4
r9.4
9.2

3.7
3.5
3.3

21,
20.
20,

3.9
3.6
3.5

October
November
December

98,758
99,453
99,700

91,345
91,688
92,026

23,895
24,058
24,198

57.65
57.97
58.10

9,872
9,448
9,208

8.4
8.2

3.2
3.2
3.1

20.
20.
19.6

3.3
3.1
3.0

January
February
March . . . . . . .

100,000
100,524
100,818

92,391
92,846
93,058

24,383
24,577
24,595

58.12
58.40
58.49

9,026
8,836
8,783

8.0
7.8
7.8

3.0
2.9
2.9

19.9
19.0
18.9

r2.8
r2.7
r2.6

April . . . . . . . .
May
June

101,023
101,795
102,023

93,449
93,786
94,135

24,760
24,851
24,974

58.59
58.97
59.04

8,800
8,560
8,228

7.8
7.5
r7.2

2.8
2.7
2.7

18
18.
18

2.5
2.5
2.3

July
August
September

102,044
101,884
102,075

94,350
94,523
94,807

25,059
25,098
25,010

58.98
58.80
58.88

8,491
8,481
8,370

7.5
7.5
7.4

2.7
(H>2.6
2.7

18,
17,
17.

r2.3
2.3
2.3

October
November
December

102,480
102,598
©102,888

r95,154
r95,489
Dp95,798

r25,080
r25,113
E)p25,248

58.96
59.06
B>59.20

8,367
&8,142
8,191

r7.3
1*7.1

2.7
2.8
2.8

....
....

1983

....
....

1984

E>16.7
17.4
17.3

2.2
2.1
H>2.1

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on paces 14, 15, 17, and 18.
x
Data
2

exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

62



JANUARY 198S

inn

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

| Q

Minor Economic
Process

50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars

Year
and
month

Industrial Production

Comprehensive Output and Income

c, c, c

Timing Class

PRODUCTION AND INCOME

c, c, c

52. Constant
(1972) dollars

51. Personal
income, less
transfer payments, in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, mfg.,
and construction in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)

Personal income
223. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c, c, c

c, c, c

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c,c,c

C, Ct C

47. Index of
industrial
production,
total

(1967 = 100)

C, L, L

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable

(1967 = 100)

(1967-100)

c, c, c

49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars

manufactures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1982
January
February
March

1,483.5

2,521.5
2,542.6
2,545.2

1,246.4
1,256.2
1,255.0

1,072.0
1,080.7
1,077.9

222.9
223.7
222.7

140.7
142.9
141.7

127.1
129.3
128.2

155.1
157.8
157.3

669.0

April
May
June

1,480*. 5

2,561.2
2,570.7
2,572.7

1,260.4
1,258.9
1,248.3

1,081.2
1,079.5
1,070.1

221.8
220.2
217.1

140.2
139.2
138.7

126.7
126.1
125.5

156.1
155.0
155.3

662.0

July
August
September

1,477*1

2,591.4
2,591.5
2,599.8

1,251.9
1,248.9
1,249.3

1,067.8
1,064.9
1,064.2

214.8
212.7
211.0

138.8
138.4
137.3

125.9
124.9
123.5

155.7
156.9
156.7

657.9

October
November
December

2,617.0
2,645.0
2,656.3

1,249.2
1,261.9
1,267.3

1,060.8
1,070.3
1,074.8

208.3
207.3
208.4

135.7
134.9
135.2

120.3

1,478*8

156.2
155.3
155.6

653.6

January
February
March

2,659.7
2,656.8
2,671.8

1,264.1
1,260.9
1,265.7

1,075.5
1,071.1
1,074.8

210.5
209.4
210.2

137.4
138.1
140.0

122.5
123.9
126.3

157.4

1,491.0

159.0
160.7

658.9

April
May
June

1,524*.8

2,693.2
2,715.8
2,734.4

1,268.0
1,275.6
1,282.6

1,077.6
1,083.0
1,091.3

210.6
210.9
212.2

142.6
144.4
146.4

129.1
131.0
133.2

163.3
165.4
167.8

681.6

July .
August
September

1,550*2

2,744.9
2,759.9
2,785.0

1,283.3
1,284.9
1,291.1

1,094.2
1,096.8
1,104.1

213.3
213.6
216.0

149.7
151.8
153.8

136.8
138.8
141.6

170.6
172.9
174.6

698 !i

1,572.7

2,814.9
2,834.2
2,860.4

1,306.2
1,312.1
1,321.2

1,119.1
1,121.9
1,130.8

.217.1
218.2
219.8

155.0
155.3
156.2

142.8
143.6
145.0

175.6
174.8
173.9

715!5

1,610.9

2,897.4
2,923.5
2,940.6

1,332.8
1,341.7
1,344.0

1,144.1
1,153.1
1,155.3

221.9
223.1
222.9

158.5
160.0
160.8

148.6
150.5
151.4

175.2
177.2
177.6

744.9

1,638.8

2,968.5
2,978.8
3,006.5

1,354.2
1,358.9
1 371.6

1,165.0
1,169.7

224.7
224.7
225.7

162.1
162.8

152.6
153.3
154.9

179.1
179.9

767.4

J.O1 . O

rl,373.1
1,373.2
1,380.3

rl,!83.9
1,183.9
1,191.9

225.7
225.8
225.2

165.9
166.0
165.0

157.2
157.8
H57.1

181.8
181.7
rl80.3

766.8

rl,382.6
rl.390.8
Dpi,397.6

rl,192.9
rl,200.3
©pi,209.6

r224.5
r225.4

rl64.5
rl65.2
B)pl66.2

rl80.0
rl80.7
0)pl82.3

!>p775!3

,
.

119.3
119.9

1983

.......

October
November
December
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June

..

.

July .
August
September

1,64512

3,027.7
3,045.8
3,068.3

October
November
December

H>P1,661*1

r3,081.8
r3,101.5
[H>p3,118.0

I , J.O1 . o

DP227.7

1 C.A

A

ion. *+

rl57.0
rl57.6
(H>pl58.3

1 81 ^

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.

JANUARY 1985



63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q j

Minor Economic
Process

Capacity Utilization

Timing Class

Year
and
month

^ Q

PRODUCTION AND INCOME—Continued

L, Cr U

83. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(BEA)
(Percent)

82. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(FRB)
(Percent)

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES
Orders and Deliveries

L. C, U

84. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
materials

(Percent)

.

L, L, L

ILL

L, L ( L

L, Lg, U

L L, L

7. Constant
(1972) dollars

8. New orders
for consumer
goods and
materials in
1972 dollars

25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries ©

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

L, L,L

Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

1982
January
February
March . .
April . . .
May
June
July
August
September
October .
November
December

72*9

73.6

76.13
77.37
78.60

33.29
33.83
34.31

29.04
29.50
30.48

-0.53
-1.34
-0.24

308.24
306.89
306.65

33
36
35

71.6

70.7

76.91
75.83
74.92

33.50
32.89
32.42

29.40
30.48
29.94

-1.04
-3.54
-3.64

305.61
302.08
298.44

31
30
38

7116

69.'4

75.23
72.05
73.23

32.51
31.12
31.52

30.04
29.23
29.75

-3.24
-4.49
-3.22

295.20
290.71
287.49

37
40
40

69*6

67*1

71.55
71.54
76.61

30.76
30.68
32.79

28.25
28.42
28.70

-1.64
-1.64
2.81

285.84
284.21
287.01

44
40
38

70*7

76'i

81.84
77.52
79.80

35.06
32.96
33.87

31.42
31.64
31.70

3.83
-0.38
0.15

290.85
290.47
290.61

41
42
50

73*8

73*5

82.86
83.29
89.46

35.16
35.19
37.64

32.02
33.56
33.86

2.74
1.28
3.87

293.36
294.63
298.50

52
52
52

77*4

77.5

87.88
88.82
91.51

36.91
37.23
38.35

34.60
35.20
35.31

2.80
2.09
2.55

301.30
303.39
305.94

52
61
60

78.9

79*6

94.78
97.99
98.44

39.72
40.95
41.09

36.09
36.60
37.49

5.60
5.68
2.09

311.53
317.21
319.30

64
59
67

80*7

81.6

99.44
102.34
0)105.18

41.50
42.52

B>43.43

0)38.59
38.38
37.49

4.15
6.06

63
68

B)8.19

323.46
329.51
337.70

i>72

72

'n
'69

*68

1983
January
February
March . ,

70

April . . ,
May
June

*73

July
August
September
October
November
December

*76

E>77

1984
January . . .
February
March . .
April
May
June . . ,

(NA)

81.8

82.7

98.32
102.26
99.17

40.49
42.13
40.76

37.28
38.44
36.64

2.62
4.31
0.13

340.32
344.63
344.76

71
70
66

July
August
September

E>82.*5

H>82*9

101.70
102.02
98.68

41.82
41.86
40.54

37.83
r37.87
36.68

3.30
0.98
-0.27

348.06
B>349.05
348.78

60
54
58

October
November
December

p81*9

p8l!4

96.07
rl04.04
plOl.89

39.55
r42.64
P41.79

36.90
r37.08
P37.64

-4.36
r2.26
p-0.48

344.42
r346.68
P346.20

52
50
45

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.

64



JANUARY 1985

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

•••
•ill

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Timing Class

C.CC

c,c,c

Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month

56. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)

57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)

C.L.C

75. Index of industrial production, consumer
goods

(1967 = 100)

C L, U

U.L.U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

59. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)

L.C.C

L, L, L

L,LrL

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

58. Index of
consumer,
sentiment ©

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Cist Q
1966=100)

(1967 = 100)

12. Index of
net business
formation

L.L.L

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

1982
341,593
347,076
346,824

151,294
154,569
154,775

139.6
141.8
141.5

86,468
88,846
87,882

43,539
44,826
44,340

71.4

71.0
66.5
62.0

113.2
115.6
113.5

43,330
47,234
46,899

345,177
350,022
345,717

153,447
155,152
152,840

142.1
143.6
144.8

88,268
89,794
88,048

44,557
45,145
43,870

70.4

65.5
67.5
65.7

115.2
114.7
112.1

46,876
46,995
45,936

345,663
341,974
342,109

152,873
152,012
151,628

145.8
144.1
143.4

89 252
89 251
90,019

44,382
44,381
44,719

73.4

65.4
65.4
69.3

112.4
112.6
110.4

44,525
46,981
45,552

336,574
339.344
338,065

149,396
151,182
150,684

142.2
141.3
142.0

90,511
92,747
91,861

44,785
45,937
45,566

79 "i

73.4
72.1
71.9

111.5
112.9
114.4

45,530
48,474
E)57,507

January
February
March

345,890
342,742
348,227

154,406
153,118
155,385

143.6
143.4
144.3

92,526
92,211
93,804

45,782
45,672
46,323

78.*4

70.4
74.6
80.8

111.4
113.3
112.7

49,999
48,296
48,032

April
May
June

351,012
360,488
368,971

155,865
159,952
163,600

147.7
150.4
152.4

95,125
97,239
98,638

46,767
47,666
48,328

88.'i

89.1
93.3
92.2

112.0
114.8
116.4

48,903
50,211
50,992

July
August
September

370,181
373,283
379,229

162,835
163,471
165,070

154.8
156.3
157.3

98,832
98,277
99,537

48,258
47,847
48,366

90.2

93.9
90.9
89.9

115.2
114.4
115.8

48,601
52,828
50,445

October
November
December

382,457
386,564
395,682

166,410
168,444
171,812

156.9
156.1
157.7

100,923
101,896
102,438

48,968
49,464
49,607

96*3

89.3
91.1
94.2

118.0
117.8
116.3

50,441
51,642
51,557

401,133
398,815
401 905

173,478
172,113
172 420

159.5
159.4
160.2

106,602
105,482

51,300
50,810
49,915

101*9

100.1
97.4
0)101.0

115.9
119.1
117.6

53,044
53,591
53,424

April
May
June

405,880
412,725
414,124

174,134
177,407
178,417

161.4
161.7
163.0

107,505
108,237
109,322

51,660
52,162
52,813

[0)104.6

96.1
98.1
95.5

118.5
115.8
116.6

53,933
51,166
54,729

July
August
September

411,410
411,176
410,505

176,517
176,762
176,023

H>163.8
162.5
161.6

107,442
106,602
108,240

51,655
51,128
51,814

100*9

96.6
99.1
100.9

rll5.9
rll7.7
rll8.8

52,092
p51,723
(NA)

October
November
December

r410,621
[H>p415,007
(NA)

rl76,521
fH>pl78,836
(NA)

rl61.8
rl62.8
P163.7

rlO8,733
E>rll0,900
pllO.815

r51,876
E>r52,936
p52,845

plOO*5

96.3
95.7
92.9

H>rll9.1
rll7.9
P115.2

January
February
March .

..

April
May
June
July
August
September

.. .

October
November
December
1983

1984
January
February
March

.

...

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.

JANUARY 1985



65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

Business Investment Commitments

Timing Class

L, L, L

L. L.L

Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment
Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued

10. Current
collars
(Bil. dol.)

20. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

Value of manufacturers' new orders,
capital goods industries, nondefense
24. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)

L, C, U

L, L, L

U. Lg, U

9. Construction contracts for com*
mercial and industrial buildings'

27. Constant
(1972) dollars

Square feet of
floor space

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

Square meters of
floor space 2
(Millions)

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations

(Bil. dol.)

(Bit. dol.)

1982
January
February
March

26.75
29.54
26.15

13.10
14.60
13,11

April
May
June

25.88
23.81
23.10

13.54
11.74
11.13

July
August
September . . .

23.81
22.70
24.34

October
November . , .
December .. .

21.85
22.59
21.91

11.00
11.61
11.30

58.18
63.29
61.15

5.40
5.88
5.68

25.18

22.45
20.13
19.62

12.07
10.16
9.64

58.93
53.71
64.87

5.47
4.99
6.03

20.* 02

11.63
11.06
11.96

20.33
18.62
20.28

10.13
9.30
10.21

57.80
59.78
55.95

5.37
5.55
5.20

18.* 44

23.23
23.70
24.47

11.71
11.58
12.58

19.93
20.01
19.84

10.29
9.99
10.60

54.65
50.69
49.55

5.08
4.71
4.60

21*49

January
February
March

23.26
24.07
23.83

11.62
11.77
12.59

20.48
19.17
20.13

10.44
9.67
11.01

66.89
57.77
52.65

6.21
5.37
4.89

20.07

April
May
June

25.77
28.31
27.24

13.14
13.84
14.07

21.96
21.85
23.83

11.52
11.09
12.61

54.32
61.20
65.40

05
69
6.08

20.87

July
August
September . . .

25.59
27.60
29.09

12.86
13.62
15.15

22.06
22.89
25.30

11.36
11.62
13.54

61.78
65.26
69.20

6.43

October
November . . .
December . . .

29.50
28.92

14.71
14.08
rl3.77

25.50
24.68
24.89

13.01
12.28
12.45

71.35
73.65
66.89

6.21

28.85
30.66
30.85

14.57
15.41
15.71

25.09
27.02
26.86

13.00
13.89
14.06

77.59
62.61
73.63

7.21
5.82
6.84

26*82

29.55
0)34.47
31.80

14.61

13.11
[H>14.82
14.41

80.03
.39
74.04

7.43
©7.84
6.88

(H>37.*i5

15.97

25.88
.96
28.03

90.20

82.88

74! is
7076

1983

6960

70.58
22.78
72.57
24.26
73.50

1984
January
February . . . .
March
April
May
June

)

78-65

92.52

July
August . . . . .
September . . .

32.66
31.14
31.92

rl5.40
rl5.44
rl5.76

27.65
26.50
27.84

13.33
13.53
14.08

79.71
84.26
75.12

7.41
83
98

p28*72

October
November , . .
December . . .

30.39
r31.99
P29.64

rl4.95
rl6.06
pl3.54

25.38
rZ7.13
p25.75

12.89
T14.08
pll.95

78.08
83.50
84.28

25
76
7.83

(NA)
(NA)

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
*This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

66




JANUARY 1985

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

EM

Minor Economic
Process

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

Timing Class

C Lg, Lg

Year
and
month

C, Lg. Lg

C. Lg, U

61. Business
expenditures
for new'plant
and equipment,
total

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business
construction
expenditures

76. Index of
industrial production, business
equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1967 = 100)

C(. Lg, C

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, C

Nonresidential fixed investment ir 1972 dollars
86. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

L, L, L

28. New
private housing
units started,
total

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

L, L, L

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

89. Residential
fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1982
January
February
March

293 lie

335.85
345.85
343.90

172.2
171.6
169.0

175." 2

55.*4

119.8

853
880
920

64.1
65.3
72.0

36\2

April
May
June

288.'04

329.13
335.67
329,55

164.9
159.9
156.7

166\9

53^7

113^2

935
1,020
913

71.7
77.0
73.7

37^6

279.61

326,30
316.14
318.53

154.9
153.9
150.5

163.9

52.4

111.5

1,173
1,026
1,148

84.3
74.8

269180

310.36
309.83
307.12

147.1
146.4
148.1

16K5

5L9

109^7

1,156
1,355
1,296

92.8
99.3
109.1

4CL8

26l!H

307.65
298.73
310.69

146.6
142.7
143.7

16L6

49^6

mis

1,632
1,706
1,592

115.6
117.6
120.5

46\2

261.16

308.89
302.96
327,25

146.9
147.7
150.2

165.3

48.1

117.2

1,549
1,779
1,743

125.7
134.1
142.5

53.4

July
August . . . . ? . . . .
September

270.05

319.56
320.14
331;57

153.3
156.6
158.7

172.6

48.3

124.3

1,793
1,873
1,679

141,5
135.0
124.4

57.2

October
November
December

325.11

283!96

339.42
354.91

161.3
164.1
167.3

184! 5

5L4

133ll

1,672
1,730
1,694

133.3
133.2
129.4

57^8

343.03
345.94
362.47

170.7
171.9
172.1

1,980

293^15

193.3

54'. 1

13912

0)2,262
1,662

145.3
1)153.6
139.5

6CK6

302170

358.57
375.62
385.72

173.5
176.5
181.1

202.9

56.8

146.0

2,015
1,794
1,877

142.0
141.0
142.8

H)60.8

(8)313.11

r372.53
r376.68
r398.65

185.5
187.6
186.4

209.5

57.1

152.4

1,754
1,554
1,683

126.4
121.6
116.3

60.1

rl87.1
rl87.1
E>P188.5

(H>p215!i

E>p59l6

H>Pl55!5

rl,535
rl,554
pi,587

114.5
128.5
128.1

p59!8

July
August
September

....

October
November
December

.....

....

36.8

84,2

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June

. . .

. . .

1984
January
February
March

-

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

, .

. .

a321.40
C1)

r387.35
|H>p400.39

.

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
Anticipated expenditures for 1985: 1st quarter, 337.85; 2d quarter, 344.86.

JANUARY 1985




67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL. INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q j

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Inventories on Hand and on Order

Inventory Investment
L, L, t

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, L, L

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars

36. Change in inventories on
hand and on order, 1972 dollars

31. Change
in book value
of mfg. and
trade inventories, total

38. Change
in stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.

Monthly
data

Smoothed
data 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

January
February
March

-6.7

-26.80
-23.28
-5.68

-10.17
-17.89
-20.44

-28.7
-18.7
-3.0

April
May
June

-4.0

-9.73
-31.19
-5.84

-15.74
-14.22
-15.56

23.7
-52.7
13.8

July
August
September . , .

-6.4

-4.46
-24.55
-9.04

-14.71
-12.72
-12.15

2.8
-23.6
-18.3

October
November . . .
December . . .

-24.6

-19.56
-36.52
-19.96

-15.20
-19.71
-23.53

-16.5

-13.50
3.06
-15.16

-6.1

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . ..

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

1 * Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg. U

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Book
value

(Bil. dol.)

70. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Bii. dot.)

Lg. Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

L, Lgt Lg

65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished
goods, book
value

77. Ratio,
constantdollar inventories to
sales, mfg.
and trade

78. Stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg,

(Bil. dol.)

(Ratio)

(Bil. dol.)

1982
521.24
519.67
519.42

268.00
267.06
266.85

89.30
90.07
90.03

1.77
1.73
1.72

214.45
211.74
209.85

521.40
517.01
518.16

267.45
265.30
265.53

89.42
88.58
87.71

1.74
1.71
1.74

208.03
205.95
202.28

-2.16
-2.35
-2.20

518.39
516.42
514.90

265.85
264.88
264.38

88.14
88.03
87.49

1.74

200.11
197.76
195.56

-19.2
-66.8
-26.2

-0.92

513.30
507.73
505.55

263.25
260.61
259.40

87.18
85.98
85.02

1.76
1.72
1.72

193.85
192.04
191.12

-24.34
-16.73
-9.33

-40.0
10.0
-44.1

0.08
0.97
0.69

502.21
503.04
499.37

257.82
257.60
256.06

83.84
83.63
82.34

1.67
1,68
1.65

191.19
192.16
192.85

2.08
12.73
-2.32

-5.94
-1.73
2.02

10.7
9.3
-5.0

500.26
501.04
500.62

255.89
256.22
255.65

82.08
82.10
81.88

1.64
1.60
1.56

192.98
194.13
195.72

0.9

16.86
16.97
13.01

6.63
9.80
13.06

9.2
34.9
32.4

1.64
E>2.92
1.64

501.38
504.28
506.98

255.86
256.31
256.78

82.23
82.14
81.72

1.57
1.57
1.56

197.36
200.27
201.91

7.2

18.91
18.14
15.34

15.96
16.49
17.08

26.2
27.4
34.6

2.47
1.77
2.44

509.17
511.45
514.34

257.29
258.06
259.02

81.54
81.72
80.87

1.55
1,53
1.51

204.38
206.15
208.59

[H>31.6

28.30
|H>46.84
25.49

19.03
25.38
31.85

44.7
E>109.8
66.6

2.86
2.71
2.42

518.06
527.22
532.77

260.17
263.23
265.12

80.77
81.87
82.87

1.50
1.53
1.54

211.45
214.16
216.59

April
May
June

20.3

38.32
34.76
-11.39

i>35.21
34.87
26.71

99.5
58.2
11.1

2.28
2.55
-0.98

541.06
545.91
546.83

267.98
270.03
270.03

84.06
85.30
86.54

1.54
1.52
1.51

218.87
221.42
220.44

July
August
September . . ,

30.6

26.60
rl9.15
r20.76

18.61
rl4.06
rl6.81

54.4
61.8
r46.9

2.40
-0.51
0.37

551.37
556.52
r560.43

272.11
274.34
276.10

87.26
88.52
89.08

1.54
1.55
1.57

E>222,85
222.33
222.70

October
November . . .
December . . .

pl4.2

r6.37
p-10.30
(NA)

rl8.80
plO.52
(NA)

r40.6
P4.5
(NA)

-2.98
p-1.97
(NA)

r563.81
DP564.19
(NA)

r277.61
E>p277.68
(NA)

89.53

H>1.57
pi.55
(NA)

219.72
p217.75
(NA)

-2.27
-2.71
-1.89

1983
January
February
March
April
May
June

1984
January
February
March

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
l
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.

68




JANUARY 1985

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

H

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

L, L,L

98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
materials

(Percent)

L, L, L

U, L, I

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrials 1

(1967 = 100)

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

L, L, L

99. Change in sensitive materials
prices
Smoothed
data 2

Monthly
data

(Percent)

(Percent)

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks @

(1941-43-10)

Profits and Profit Margins
L, L,L

L, L,L

Corporate profits after taxes
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

18. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, C, L

L, C, L

Corporate profits after taxes
with IVA and CCAdj 3
79. Current
dollars

80. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L,L

22. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) to total
corporate
domestic
income
(Percent)

1983
1.68
E>2.75
2.00

232.1
241.3
248.8

E)2.58

April .
May
June

-0.18
1.76
2.55

253.2
251.5
250.5

July
August
September . .

0.37
1.14
-0.20

October
November . .
December . .

1.50

-0.07
0.83
1.70

144.27
146.80
151.88

102.6

48.9

120.0

57.3

5.3

0.44
0.70
1.22

B>1.83
1.34
0.91

157.71
164.10
166.39

123.4

58.9

141.9

67^9

6.3

256.0
265.2
267.9

0.86
1.62
0.21

0.86
1.08
1.06

166.96
162.42
167.16

142.6

67.9

16CL2

76\5

7.1

0.96
1.12
0.81

273.4
279.8
282.4

1.09
1.29
0.70

0.94
0.92
0.94

H>167.65
165.23
164.36

141.1

66.4

175.5

January
February
March

-0.94
1.17
0.74

283.6
283.6
289.2

-0.37
0.61
0.93

0.78
0.43
0.35

166.39
157.25
157.44

E>150.6

0)71.0

April
May
June

-0.54
-0.55
-0.58

288.6
0)289.5
286.2

-0.32
-0.20
-0.65

0.40
0.27
-0.13

157.60
156.55
153.12

150.2

70.3

July
August
September . .

-1.79
-1.20
0.29

-0.64

151.08
164.42
166.11

141.7

65.7

0.88

280.1
275.6
274.0

October
November . .
December . .

-0.84
0.27
-0.44

266.4
268.3
261.9

-1.25
0.34
-0.93

-0.81
-0.46
-0.41

164.82
166.27
164.48

(NA)

(NA)

January
February
March

1.93

6.9

1984
7.1

195.2

92! i

E>7.1

6.5

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1985
January
February
March

*256.4

5

169.76

April
May
June
July
August
September . .
October
November . .
December . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
2
3
See footnote 1 on page 68.
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
"Average for January 2-22.
3
Average for January 2, 9, 16, and 23.

JANUARY 1985



69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Profits and Profit Margins-Continued

U, L, L

L, L,L

St. Ratio,
15. Profits (after
profits (after
taxes) per dollar
taxes) with IVA of sales, all
ar d CCAdj to
manufacturing
ccrp, domestic corporations
income'
(Percent)

(Cents)

1, L, L

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

Cash Hows

L, L, L

L, L, L

26. Ratio, price
Net cash flow, corporate
to unit labor
cost, nonfarm
business sector 34. Current
35. Constant
dollars
(1972) dollars

(1977-100)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of
unit labor cost,
private business
sector

68, Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial
corporations

(1977-100)

(Dollars)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

62. Index of labor cost per
unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data

(1967 100)

Aetna! data
as a percent
of trend

64. Compensation of employees as a percent
of national
income

(Percent)

(Percent)

1982
January
February
March

5.1

3.9

96.8

249.4

118.4

150.0

1.372

225.8
223.3
223.5

104.9
103.2
102.6

75.7

April ,
May .
June ,

5.2

3.6

259.0

226.5

96.4

121.6

153.4

1.395

228.2

76.0

228.5

103.4
103.5
103.0

July
August . , .
September .

5.3

3.5

96.0

266.6

124.3

155.3

1.404

226.9
226.2
226.4

101.7
100.8
100.3

76.5

October
November . . .
December . . .

5.0

2.8

95.6

266.7

123.4

155.9

1.4i9

227.9
229.0
229.1

100.3
100.2
99.6

76.5

January .
February
March . .

6.5

3.3

96.4

280.0

130.9

156.8

1.42i

227.4
225.6
223.9

98.3
96.9
95.6

76.0

April
May
June

7.5

4.0

97.9

310.5

146.2

155.4

1.408

221.9
ZZ0A
219.0

94.2
93.0
91.9

vs.z

July
August
September , ,

8.1

4.2

98.7

339.6

159.2

155.1

1.400

216.4
214.7
214.4

90.2
89.0
88.3

74.5

October . .
November
December

8.9

4.5

345.6

160.9

156.8

1.408

215.0
217.1
219.2

88.0
88.4
88.7

74.3

January , .
February .
March . , .

9.1

4.9

98.7

360.4

167.5

157.7

1.415

218.4
218. S
218.7

87.8
87.3
86.9

73.5

April ,
May ,
June ,

9.6

[H)4.9

99.8

366.7

D169.3

156.5

1.414

218.9
218.1
217.0

86.4
85.6
84.7

73.3

p4.4

99.7

.7

168.4

rl58.0

»1.434

215.8
216.6
r217.9

r83.5

83.5

73.4

(NA)

(NA)

E>P158.5

{NA)

r2!8.9
r219.4
[H)p220.6

r83.4
r83,0
p83.0

(NA)

1983

1984

July . . . .
August . .
September
October , .
November
December

(NA)

(NA)

83.7

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
l

IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

70




JANUARY 1985

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

MONEY AND CREDIT

Money

L, L.L

85. Change in
money supply
Ml

L, L, L

L. C, U

102. Change
in money
supply M2

104. Change in total liquid assets
Monthly
data

(Percent)

(Percent)

Velocity of Money

Smoothed
data *

(Percent)

(Percent)

L, LPL

L. L, L

105. Money
supply Ml
in 1972
dollars

106. Money
supply M2
in 1972
dollars

(Bit. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

C, Lg, C

L, L ( L

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M2

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

C,C, C

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml

Credit Flows

(Ratio)

(Ratio)

1983
0.96
1.24
1.10

>2.65
1.81
0.66

1.33
0.82
0.71

0.72
0.84
0.93

207.0
209.7
211.8

860.7
876.9
882.0

6.465

1.318
1.293
1.292

47.20
35.71
-39.20

April
May . . . . . . .
June . . . . . . .

0t28
0)1.77
0.85

0.69
0.98
0.70

0.96
0.78
0.99

0.89
0.82
0.86

211.0
213.8
215.1

882.2
886.9
891.4

6.467

294
,292
.292

5.16
-30.88
32.78

July . . . . . . .
August
September . . ,

0.78
0.49
0.29

0.45
0.41
0.59

0.88
0.50
0.75

0.90
0.84
0.75

216.0
216.3
216.1

892.1
892.4
894.5

6.471

1.291
1.293
1.297

66.52
72.61
7.21

October
November . . .
December . . .

0.52
0.27
0.44

0.90
0.69
0.65

0.52
0.99
rl.14

0.65
0.67
r0.82

216.4
216.2
216.6

898.9
901.8
905.5

6.557

1.299
1.299
1,302

63.65
76.86
111.60

January
February
March

0.89
0.55
0.43

0.48
0.72
0.33

r0.48
r0.93
1.30

r0.88
r0.86
r0.88

217.2
217.6
218.1

904.2
907.4
908.4

6.669

1.313
1.315
1.319

82.06
82.16
110.33

April
May
June

0.04
1.06
0.94

0.58
0.70
0.60

0.80
r0.99
[H>rl.33

r0.96
1.02
rl.O4

217.1
219.0
E>220.7

909.5
914.1
918.1

6.737

1.324
319
323

134.10
142.32
111.64

July
August
September . . .

-0.09
rO.15
r0.42

0.43
0.40
0.64

1.12
r0.64
pO.68

1.09

B>rl.O9

219.9
r219.2
219.4

919.4
918.9
r921.5

6.753

327
329
1)1.331

T120.00
r91.43
H>rl44.11

October
November ... .
December . . .

-0.62
0.71
pO.93

0.51
rl.26
pi.27

(NA)

(NA)

E>p6.825

rl.330
rl.322
pi.312

r67.92
P82.02
(NA)

January
February
March

1984

pO.92

217.3
218.3
P219.9

r922.
932.
jH>p942.

1985
January
February
March

a

1.64

April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these serin are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
^his series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
2
Average for weeks ended January 7 and 14.

JANUARY 1985




71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Credit Flows-Continued
L, L, L

I, L, L

112, Net change 113. Net
in business
change in
consumer inleans
stallment
credit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

111. Change
in credit outstandingbusiness and
consumer
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
percent)

MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
Bank Reserves

Credit Difficulties
L. L,L

110. Total
private
borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

L, L, L

14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures (§)

(Mil. dol.)

L.L.L

L.U, U

39. Delinquency 93. Free
rate, 30 days
reserves
and over, consumer installment loans

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

Interest Rates

U U. U

94. Member
bank borrowing from the
Federal
Reserve ®

(Mil, dol.)

L. Lg, I g

119. Federal
funds rate @

(Percent)

C, Lg. Lg

114. Treasury
bill rate ®

(Percent)

1983
38.41
-4.84
11.70

31.14
0.26
35.24

8.2
0.9
-0.3

263,148

2,158.1
1,086.4
1,154.7

2.24
2.23
2.22

46
-122
-415

500
557
852

8.51
8.77

7.81
8.13
8.30

-36.02
-47.33
4.38

24.49
27.26
46.33

-0.5
-4.5
5.5

389,164

1,125.6
920.0
2,188.6

2.07
2.00
1.92

-517
-453
-1,234

993
902
1,714

8.80
8.63
8.98

8.25
8,19
8.82

July
August
September . , ,

-2.59
8.72
-5.54

44.47
49.12
30.64

8.1
8.9
1.1

384,480

829.2
1,353.1
947.2

1.95
1.90
1.88

-875
-1,127
-943

1,382
1,573
1,441

9.37
9.56
9.45

9.12
9.39
9.05

October
November . . .
December . . ,

5.59
20.02
51.36

61.12
57.83
69.38

8.6
10.8
13.4

0)527,376

1,816.8
1,624.5
868.5

1.91
1.86
1.94

-332
-383
-184

837
912
745

9,48
9.34
9.47

8.71
8.71
8.96

-17.78
55.30
H>119.22

53.63
79.30
70.44

8.1
15.3
20.7

(NA)
401,012

1.84
D1.78
1.85

-102
375
-243

715
567
952

9.56
9.59
9.91

8.93
9.03
9.44

April
May
June

90.92
69.83
104.38

76.90
B>122.80
93.90

D23,9
21.8

-744
-2,411
-2,533

1,234
2,988
3,300

10.29
10.32
11.06

9.69
9.90
9.94

July
August
September . . .

39.17
11.57
r42.01

85.27
71.98
51.40

rl4.2
10.1
rl6.4

-5,317
H>-7,334
-6,622

5,924
i)8,017
7,242

11.23
18)11.64
11.30

10,13
[R>10.49
" 10.41

October
November , . ,
December . . .

r69.60
r37.57
p53.74

75.30
95.40
(NA)

H2.7
rl2.1
P12.5

-5,410
r-3,937
p-2,326

6,017
4,617
p3,186

9.99
9.43
8.38

9.97
8.79
8.16

January
February
March
April
May
June

1984
January
February
March

19.8
496,796

(NA)

(NA)

1985
January
February
March

X

8.36

April
May
June
July
August
September . , .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are siown on oages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
'Average for weeks ended January 2, 9, 16, and 23.
2
Average for weeks ended January 3, 10, 17, and 24,

72




JANUARY 1985

2

7.76

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q j

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Interest Rates—Continued
Lg, Lg, Lg

Year
and
month

MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued

C Lg, Lg

U, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

116. Corporate 115. Treasury
117. Municipal 118. Secondary
bond yields <g) bond yields <g) bond yields <g) market yields
on FHA
mortgages (u)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

Outstanding Debt
Lg, Lgt Lg

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business loans

®

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks (§)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

66. Consumer
installment
credit

Lg, Lg, Lg

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

101. Constant
(1972) dollars

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
to personal
income

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

1983
January
February
March

12.04
12.11
11.81

10.37
10.60
10.34

9.50
9.58
9.20

12.87
12.65
12.68

10.20

11.16
10.98
10.50

351,539
351,561
354,498

268,369
267,966
268,941

106,580
106,083
106,553

13.22
13.23
13.27

April
May
June

11.58
11.24
11.90

10.19
10.21
10.64

9.05
9.11
9.52

12.50
12.41
12.96

10.31

10.50
10.50
10.50

356,539
358,811
362,672

265,939
261,995
262,360

105,364
103,514
103,332

13.24
13.21
13.26

July
August
September

12.46
12.89
12.68

11.10
11.42
11.26

9.53
9.72
9.58

14.23
13.78
13.55

11.09

10.50
10.89
11.00

366,378
370,471
373,024

262,144
262,871
262,409

102,963
102,764
102,383

13.35
13.42
13.39

October
November
December

12.54
12.86
12.87

11.21
11.32
11.44

9.66
9.75
9.89

13.23
13.23
13.25

10^95

11.00
11.00
11.00

378,117
382,936
388,718

262,875
264,543
268,823

102,326
103,136
104,600

13.43
13.51
13.59

12.65
12.80
13.36

11.29
11.44
11.90

9.63
9.64
9.93

13.08
13.20
13.68

ll!06

11.00
11.00
11.21

393,187
399,795
405,665

267,341
271,949
281,884

103,380
104,838
107,960

13.57
13.68
13 80

13.64
14.41
E>14.49

12.17
12.89
|H>13.00

9.96
10.49
[H>10.67

13,80
[0)15.01
14.91

12*.45

11.93
12.39
12.60

412,073
422,306
430,131

289,461
295,280
303,978

110,735
112,918
116,288

13.88
14.18
14 31

July
August
September

14.25
13.54
13 37

12.82
12.23
11 97

10.42
9.99
10 10

14.58
14.21
13 99

jH>13*.29

13.00
E)13.00
12 97

437,237
443,235
447 518

307,242
308,206
707

117,313
rl!8,132
rll9,933

14.44
14.55
14 59

October
November
December

13.02
12.40
12,47

11.66
11.25
11.21

r317,507
453,793
r320,638
E)461,743
(NA) E)p325,116

rl22,212
rl23,038
(H)pl24,949

rl4.72
B)pl4.89
(NA)

U2.48

Ml,21

1984
January
February
March .

...

April
May
June

10.25
10.17
9.95

13.43
12.90
12.99

12.58
11.77
11.06

11.29

ril1

1985
January
February
March

2

9.55

3

10.62

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
'Average for weeks ended January 4, 11, 18, and 25.
'Average for weeks ended January 3, 10, 17, and 24.
3
Average for January 1 through 29.

JANUARY 1985




73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Year
and
month

950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32t 36, 99, 106,

952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62,77, 91,
95,101, 109)

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

961. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (20
industries)

UD

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

January
February
March

45.8
58.3
33.3

41.7
41.7
45.8

0.0
87.5
37.5

0.0
50.0
50.0

75.0
33.3
33.3

April
May
June

66.7
37.5
37.5

66.7
50.0
45.8

25.0
75.0
0.0

25.0
0.0
0.0

July
August
September

58.3
58.
62.

50.0
41,
62.

25.0
0.0
12.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

October
November

75.0
58.3
66.7

83.
87,

91.7

0.0
50.0
75.0

January
February
March

75.0
70.8
66.7

100.0
100.0
100.0

April
May
June

37.5
70.8
37.5

July
August
September
October
November
December

963. Number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls
(186 industries)

962. Initial claims for
State unemployment
insurance, week including the 12th *
(51 areas)

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

41.7
33.3
33.3

5.0
95.0
25.0

7.5
30.0
25.0

96.1
24.5
5.9

11.8
31.4
43.1

27.6
47.6
35.7

19.2
22.2
21.9

58.3
41.7
58.3

33.3
33.3
33.3

22.5
65.0
70.0

20.0
20.0
82.5

62.7
68.6
19.6

15.7
23.5
9.8

31.1
41.1
33.5

24.6
20.3
21.4

33
50,
33.

33,
16,
16,

37.5
42.5
35.0

35.0
65.0
82.5

67.6
9.8
17.6

17.6
72.5
82.4

34.6
32.4
37.3

21.4
18.6
23.2

50.0
50.0
75.0

16.7
0.0
16.7

0.0
8.3
16.7

52.5
80.0
62.5

57.5
85.0
97.5

88.2
60.8
76.5

71,
66,
84.3

28,
32,
45.7

27.3
29.5
35.4

100.0
25.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

33.3
50.0
25.0

16.7
16.7
16.7

77.5
12.5
100.0

90.0
90.0
80.0

68.6
57.8
35.3

98.0
96.1
100.0

54.3
46,5
60.8

50.8
63.0
69.2

91.7
100.0
91.7

87.5
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

25.0
8.3
25.0

16.7
16.7
33.3

90.0
30.0
85.0

85.0
95.0
95.0

80.4
48.0
78.4

84.3
90.2
92.2

68.9
69.
64.

75.1
80.0
82.4

62.5
62.5
66.7

91.7
83.3
66.7

75.0
75.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

58.
58,
16.7

33.3
41.7
66.7

70.0
62.5
92.5

95.
95,
92.5

70.6
7.8

96.1

88.2
94.1
80.4

74.3
68.6
69.5

84.1
82.4
84.6

75.0
45.8
62.5

83.3
83.3
79.2

100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

41.7
58.3
75.0

66.7
66.7
66.7

40.0
62.5
55.0

95.0
85.0
92.5

58.8
35.3
60.8

84.3
86.3
68.6

75.4
69.7
73.8

85.9
86.8
83.8

58.3

1-month
span

6-month
span

1982

December
1983

1984
January
February
March

70.8
SO.O

75.0
70.8
62.5

100.0
75.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

8.3
75.0
r83.3

66.7
66.7
75.0

77,5
50.0
22.5

80.0
30.0
32.5

36.3
72.5
68.6

76.5
90.2
56.9

71.1
73.2
67.0

81.9
82.7
79.7

April
May
June

58.3
41.7
29.2

r29.2
25.0
33.3

100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

75.0
66.7
r66.7

83.
83.
83.

87.5
7.5
37.5

27.5
52.5
15.0

43.1
29.4
92.2

66.7
r70.6
38.2

63.8
64.1
63.0

75.4

July
August
September

16.7
45.8
66.7

33.3
25.0
36.4

75.0
r87.5
50.0

100.0
100.0
•100.0

83.3
75.0
r75.O

83,
66,
"50.0

37.5
60.0
70.0

r22.5
p55.0

19.6
51.0
r74.5

p27.5
(NA)

62.4
57.6
40.8

r62,
r62
p62.4

October

November
December

3

41.7
66.7
54.5

3

3

r75.0
100.0
100.0

58.3
33.3
*62.5

r22.
r67.
P70.0

9.8
p68.6
(NA)

69.
63.

r65.7
r51.9
p66.5

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
^Figures are the percent of components declining,
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
'Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
"Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

74




JANUARY 1985

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q j

Year
and
month

964. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (34 industries)

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
deflated (17 manufacturing industries)

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-quarter
span

January
February
March

67.6
52.9
55.9

88.2
88.2
83.8

45

April
May
June

70.6
73.5
67.6

86.8
88.2
88.2

53

July
August
September

47.1
58.8
64.7

91.2
88.2
85.3

50

October
November
December

64.7
67.6
55.9

94.1
91.2
88.2

59

January
February
March

61.8
47.1
55.9

85.3
73.5
82.4

71

April
May
June

29.4
67.6
35.3

70.6
55.9
41.2

59

July
August
September

58.8
44.1
41.2

r44.1
p47.1

p39

October
November
December

41.2
58.8
p47.1

DIFFUSION NOEXES-Continued

966. Index of industrial
production (24
industries)

967. Index of spot
market prices, raw
industrials (§)
(13 industrial materials)

1-month
span

6-month
span

*56

75.0
58.3
75.0

79.2
87.5
91.7

61.5
76.9
57.7

52

83.3
91.7
79.2

91.7
95.8
95.8

*59

87.5
83.3
75.0

968. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks' ©

960. Net profits,
manufacturingz (3)
(about 600 companies)

1-month
span

9-month
span

80.8
61.5
57.7

63.3
59.2
73.5

100.0
98.0
93.9

"n

65.4
46.2
46.2

80.8
96.2
88.5

81.6
91.8
65.3

89.8
87.5
86 5

'74

95.8
91.7
81.3

57.7
73.1
57.7

88.5
80.8
73.1

52.0
30.6
85.4

91.5
80.9
72.3

82

79.2
83.3
87.5

69.2
76.9
42.3

80.8
80.8
73.1

47.9
57.4
61.7

38.3
40.4
34.0

81

60

62.5
56.3
70.8

89.6
91.7
83.3

38.5
61.5
65.4

73.1
65.4
42.3

52.1
10.6
60.6

41.5
25.5
58.7

76

p57

87.5
79.2
68.8

77.1
66.7
62 5

50.0
50.0
42.3

34.6
30.8
30 8

43.6
36.2
36 2

30.4
37.0
37 0

(NA)

(NA)

62.5
64.6
70.8
70.8
39.6
29.2

r62.5
r60.4
p54.2

34.6
46.2
46.2

23.1
15.4
15.4

34.8
93.5
73.9

60.9
54.3

4-Q moving
average

1-month
span

9-month
span

(4-quarter span)

1983

1984

(NA)

r50.0
r60.4
P68.8

30.8
57.7
19.2

3

34.8
78.3
26.1

1985
January
February
March

3

23.1

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
1
Based on 49 industries through August 1983, on 48 industries through October 1983, on 47 industries through June 1984, and on 46 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on average for January 8, 15, and 22.

JANUARY 1985



75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

E l
Year
and
quarter

(l-Q span)

b. Later
anticipations
(l-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(l-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

c. Early
anticipations

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade l @

972. Net profits, manufacturing
l
and rade (3)

971. New orders, manufacturing 1 (g)

970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment (21 industries)
a. Actual
expenditures

DIFFUSION 1NDEXES-Continued

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

52.4
26.2
23.8
21.4

47.6
23.8
33.3
57.1

47.6
57.1
66.7
71.4

52
50
52
56

38.1
38.1
76.2
81.0

57.1
40.5
90.5
81.0

52.4
38.1
66.7
76.2

76.2
71.4
95.2
(NA)

78.6
61.9
78.6
66.7

54.8
76.2
66.7
61.9

60
68
64
60

53
52
52
54

61
66
66
60

63
58
57
60

65
70
72
65

66
74
78
84

66
77
82
85

62
66
71
74

64
73
80
81

66
74
74
80

68
78
84
86

90
86
84
(NA)

88
91
90
88

80
79
74
(NA)

84
86
88
84

85
84
82
(NA)

88
90
90
88

•

1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

C/\ Q
3^ . O

Q |

rear
and
quarter

DIFFUSION NDEXES—Continued

974. Number o f employees,
manufacturing i nd trade' (g)

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade' (g)

976. Selling prices, manu
facturirtg > (u)

Actual

Actual

Actua

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

84

80

82

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade»®

978. Selling prices, retail
trade' ©

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1982
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

48
46
46
46

50
51
51
48

58
52
52
52

54
56
56
50

72
68
63
60

80
76
68
66

72
67
68
61

82
78
11
68

78
75
74
68

82
81
76
72

48
54
58
61

50
56
59
60

54
59
62
68

52
58
62
64

61
60
65
68

65
66
70
69

63
62
68
70

68
64
68
72

68
72
69
72

69
67
70
71

65
63
62
(NA)

62
64
64
62

72
70
70
(NA)

66
70
70
66

74
70
70
(NA)

74
76
76
72

73
69
5R
(NA)

72
76
75
72

It
68
70
(NA)

70
74
74
68

1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter , , . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

60

64

70

68

66

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated by (g), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun &
Bradstrcct diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

76




JANUARY 1985

\M\\

CYCLICAL-INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change

1984

Diffusion index components

May

June

July

August

September

October

November1"

December**

961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Average weekly hours)

40.6

40.6

40.5

40.5

40.6

40.4

40.5

40.7

(8)

(38)

(38)

(60)

(70)

(22)

(68)

(70)

Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

39.6
39.7

39.4
39.1

39.3
39.8

39.4
39.1

40.2
39.9

r39.7
39.6

39.6
39.8

40.4
39.6

Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries

42.1'
42.1

41.8
41.7

41.9
41.5

41.7
41.0

42.0
41.3

41.8
r41.3

41.8
41.6

41.7
41.7

Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical ...

41.4
41.9

41.3
42.0

41.3
41.8

41.1
42.0

41.5
42.0

41.3
r41.9

41.1
41.7

41.7
41.8

Electric and electronic equipment .
Transportation equipment

41.0
42.4

40.8
42.3

40.8
42.2

40.9
42.4

41.2
42.8

40.9
42.4

41.0
42.4

41.0
42.8

Instruments and related products .
Miscellaneous manufacturing

40.7
39.3

41.3
39.2

41.3
38.9

41.1
39.1

41.5
39.6

41.2
r39.7

41.4
39.7

42.2
40.2

Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers

39.7
39.6

39.8
40.5

39.5
37.5

39.7
39.2

39.6
39.6

39.6
r39.9

39.6
40,5

39.9
40.4

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

40.0
36.5

40.0
36.4

39.8
35.8

39.4
36.0

39.2
35.9

38.7
r35.9

39.1
36.1

39.4
36.3

Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing ...

43.1
38.0

42.9
37.7

43.3
37.7-

43.1
37.8

43.1
37.9

43.0
r37.8

43.2
38.0

43.2
37.6

Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and coal products ..

41.8
43.5

41.9
43.1

41.9
43.2

42.0
43.9

41.8
43.1

r41.6
43.5

41.6
43.4

42.1
42.6

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products .
Leather and leather products

41.7
36.5

41.9
36.7

41.2
37.0

41.4
36.0

41.5
36.5

41.4
36.4

41.6
36.5

42.0
37.2

98,676

96,067

104,037

- 101,891

(41)

(41)

(59)

(47)

All manufacturing industries

Percent rising of 20 components .
Durable goods industries:

Nondurable goods industries:

964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES '
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

+ 102,256

99,171

+ 101,704

+ 102,015

(68)

(35)

(59)

(44)

Percent rising of 34 components .

-

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products..

+

10,653
11,573

-

10,155
11,084

+
-

11,183
11,024

+
+

11,245
12,034

-

10,281
11,878

+
+

10,597
12,054

+
+

10,848
12,426

+

10,346
12,973

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery

+
+

18,797
17,535

-

18,512
15,988

+

18,149
16,267

+

17,549
16,403

+
+

18,049
16,792

-

16,962
14,631

+
-

18,082
14,497

+

16,243
15,979

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries.

+

23,776
19,922

+
-

24,055
19,377

+
+

25,267
19,814

-

25,096
19,688

-

22,113
19,563

+

21,912
19,911

28,619
19,565

+

26,706
19,644

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and ( - ) - falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
3
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.

JANUARY 1985



77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change- Continued

1984

Diffusion inciex components

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1967-100)
+

All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components

}

162,8

+

(65)

164.4

+

(71)

165.9

166.0

165.0

164.5

165.2

166.2

(71)

(40)

(29)

(50)

(60)

(69)

Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products,
Furniture and fixtures ,

146.3
190.5

+
+

148.5
191.9

+

146.0
192.6

+
+

148.8
195.3

149.2
194.3

+
+

152.6
195.5

152.4
193.9

(NA)
(NA)

Clay, glass, and stone products.
Primary metals

160.6
98.2

-

159.7
97.9

+

160.9
94.5

-

160.0
94,4

rl58.0
r94.1

+

159.2
93.0

159.2
90.5

(NA)
88.9

Fabricated metal product; ,.
Nonelectrical machinery

136.5
178.8

138.7
182.0

+
+

140,6
186.9

+

140.0
189.1

rl39.5
187.9

+
-

140.7
187.2

139.6
186.4

+
+

140.9
187.1

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

214.5
135.0

216.0
137.2

+
+

221.5
140.6

221.5
141.0

r222.8
137.6

-

221.9
137.1

224.0
141.8

+
+

224.7
142.8

Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures ,

171.8
151.5

174.5
150.8

+
+

176.7
152.4

177.4
149.2

rl78.5
rl47.0

+

177.5
148.3

178.1
147.5

+
+

181.9
149.5

(NA)
(NA)

NA)
NA)

136.0
(NA)

NA)
NA

Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products

164.2

+
+

165.1
118.3

164.9
115.1

164.7
113.8

rl64.3
113.1

165.0
115.7

Textile mill products ..
Apparel products

140.5
(NA)

+

140.7
(NA)

139.8
(NA)

140.3
(NA)

rl35.4
(NA)

133.3
(NA)

Paper and products
Printing and publishing .

174.1
167.5

+
+

174.6
169.0

176.7
172.6

176
173

rl77.5
rl70.5

173.5
172.2

175.5
173.9

+
-

178.1
173.5

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products ....

227.9
127,9

+
-

231,0
127,5

232.0
124.7

231
124

230.8
122.6

229.5
125.4

230.5
125.9

-

124.7

Rubber and plastics products.
Leather and products

334.1
61.4

+

341.0
60.0

341.4
60.6

341.5
59.1

338,4
57.9

338.5
55.2

337.9
58,0

(NA)
(NA)

+

(NA)

Mining:
Metal mining ....
Coal

98.0
153.9

+

96.8
161.5

96.4
176.5

83.4
171.7

+
+

r84.5
173.7

91.3
127.8

93.8
134.4

(NA)
142.2

Oil and gas extraction ...
Stone and earth minerals

120.4
144,0

+
+

121.6
147.9

122.8
151.9

122,5
153.5

- rl22.4
+ rl54.6

122.8
147.8

123.8
147.5

124.9
(NA)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) -- rising, (o) - unchanged, and ( - ) ~ falling,
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
a
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

78




The "r" indicates revised; "p",

JANUARY 1985

ICO

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q j

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued

1984

Diffusion index components

May

June

July

August

1985

September

967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS

Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . .

+

Percent rising of 13 components

289.5

-

286.2

-

(42)

(50)

280.1

-

(35)

275.6

-

(46)

November

December

January 1

266.4

+ 268.3

-

-

(31)

(58)

October

2

274.0

•

~

(46)

261.9

256.4
(23)

(19)

Dollars

(pound)..
(kilogram),.

-

Lead scrap

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

o

Steel scrap

(U S ton)
(metric t o n ) . .

+ 98.600
108.687

- 94.250
103.892

- 85.000
93.696

+ 86.000
94.798

+ 92.000
101.412

- 88.000
97.002

- 86.500
95.349

- 86.000
94.798

+ 90.667
99.942

(oound)
(kilogram)..

+ 5.890
12.985

-

5.882
12.967

-

5.772
12.725

-

5.680
12.522

-

5.585
12,313

-

5.4ti4
11,914

+

5.515
12.158

-

5.443
12.000

-

5.110
11.266

(pound)
(kilogram)..

-

0.533
1.175

-

0.530
1.168

-

0.502
1.107

-

0.491
1.082

-

0.476
1.049

-

0.454
1.001

o

0.454
1.001

o

0.454
1.001

-

0.447
0.985

-

0.300
0.328

+

0.313
0.342

+

0.329
0.360

+

0.336
0.367

+

0.366
0.400

+ 0.395
0.432

+

0.396
0.433

-

0.395
0.432

+

0.396
0.433

0.803

-

0.763
1.682

-

0.683
1.506

-

0.640
1.411

-

0.625
1.378

+

0.626
1.380

-

0.610
1.345

+

0.617
1.360

-

0.614
1.354

Copper scrap

Tin

Zinc

.

.

Burlap ,

(yard)

(meter)..

0.508
1.120

-

0.150
0.331

+

0.479
1.056

-

0.158
0.348

+

0.459
1.012

+

0.188
0.414

-

0.460
1.014

-

0.171
0.377

-

0.435

-

0.421
0.928

+

0.458
1.010

-

0.447
0.985

-

0.443
0.977

-

0.120
0.265

+

0.141
0.311

-

0.137
0.302

-

0.107
0.236

0.959
0.143
0.315

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

+

(yard)..
(meter)..

-

0.784
0.857

-

0.762
0.833

+ 0.768
0.840

-

0.762
0,833

+

0.779
0.852

+

0.794
0.868

+

0.798
0.873

- 0.778
0.851

-

0.758
0.829

Wool tops

(pound)
(kilogram)..

o

3.500
7.716

+

3.512
7.743

-

3.500
7.716

o

3.500
7.716

0

3.500
7.716

o

3.500
7.716

o

3.500
7.716

o

3.500
7.716

o

3.500
7.716

Hides

(pound)
(kilogram)..

+

0.744
1.640

+

0.748
1.649

+

0.766
1.689

.+

0.771
1.700

+

0.795
1.753

-

0.716
1.578

-

0.625
1.378

-

0.586
1.292

-

0.567
1.250

Rosin

, (100 pounds)
(100 kilograms)..

Cotton

Print cloth

1.770

0 47.000
103.616

o 47.000
103.616

o 47.000
103.616

o 47.000
103.616

o 47.000
103.616

o 47.000
103.616

o 47.000
103.616

o 47.000
103.616

o 47.000
103.616

Rubber

...(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

0.514
1.133

-

0.475
1.047

-

0.464
1.023

+

0.465
1.025

-

0.464
1.023

-

0.437
0.963

-

0.426
0.939

-

0.422
0.930

-

0.420
0.926

Tallow

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.249
0.549

+

0.259
0.571

-

0.208
0.459

-

0.201
0.443

+

0.218
0.481

-

0.216
0.476

+

0.223
0.492

-

0.206
0.454

-

0.198
0.437

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and ( - ) - falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p"
preliminary; and "NA", not available,
if
rhe index is the average for January 2 through 22; component prices are averages for January 8, 15, and 22.
a
.Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

JANUARY 1985



79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

M R

Year
and
quarter

b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

217. Per capita
GNP in 1972
dollars

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars

2JO. Gross national product in current dollars
a Total

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME

b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

213. Final sales
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1981
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

U501.3

35.6
-1.8
10.4
-20.8

10.0
-0.5
2.8
-5.4

6,603
6.580
6.607
6.500

1.505.4
1,499.4
1,504,6
1.494.0

-0.2
4.7
2.5
3.9

1,483.5
1.480.5
1,477.1
1,478.8

-17.8
-3.0
-3.4
1.7

-4.6
-0.8
-0.9
0.5

6,408
6,381
6,349
6,341

1,490.3
1.484.5
1.483.5
1.503.4

64.2
93.2
79.6
85.1

8.5
12.3
10.1
10.6

1,491.0
1,524.8
1,550.2
1,572.7

12.2
33.8
25.4
22.5

3.3
9.4
6.8
5.9

6,379
6,510
6,602
6,681

1.507.5
1.530.9
1,549.3
1,565.4

121.6
91.4
49.9
p57.9

14.9
10.7
5.6
p6.4

1,610.9
1,638.8
1,645.2
pi.661.1

38.2
27.9
6.4
pl5.9

10.1
7.1
1.6
p3.9

6,829
6,933
6.943
P6.993

1,579.3
1,618.5
1,614.6
pi.646.9

2,875.8
2,918.0
3.009.3
3,027.9

139.8
42.2
91.3

1,513.5
1,511.7
1,522.1

18.6

22.1
6.0
13.1
2.5

3,026,0
3,061,2
3,080.1
3,109.6

-1.9
35.2
18.9
29.5

3,173.8
3,267.0
3,346.6
3,431.7
3,553.3
3,644.7
3,694.6
p3,752.5

1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

g Q
Year
and
quarter

Q

GNP ANO PERSONAL INCOME—Continued
230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

225. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

231. Total in 1972
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

233. Durable goods
ir 1972 dollars

227. Per capita in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

1,972,5
2,006.0
2,078.6
2,109.8

1,042.5
1,040.7
1,058.1
1,056.0

4,548
4,530
4,593
4,572

1,797.9
1,829.3
1,877.3
1,891.8

950.2
949.1
955.7
946.8

237.8
232.4
242.5
228.9

146.1
140.0
143.5
134.0

2,132.0
2,156.8
2,195.8
2,237.5

1,052.8
1,054.8
1,057.9
1,067.6

4,548
4,546
4,548
4.578

1,931.3
1,960.9
2,001.3
2,046.1

953.7
958.9
964.2
976.3

239.4
241.6
244.5
255.0

138.5
138.8
139.3
145.2

2,261.4
2,302.9
2,367.4
2,428.6

1,073.1
1,082.0
1,102.2
1,124.3

4,591
4.619
4,694
4,776

2,070.4
2.141.6
2,181.4
2,230.2

982.5
1,006.2
1,015.6
1,032.4

259.4
276.1
284.1
299.8

146.8
156.2
159.6
167.2

2,502.2
2,554.3
2,606.4
p2,649.4

1,147.6
1.165.3
1,176.5
pi.188.7

4,865
4,930
4,965
p5,004

2,276.5
2,332.7
2,361.4
p2,398.6

1,044.1
1,064.2
1,065.9
pi,076.2

310.9
320.7
317.2
P324.7

173.7
178.6
177.0
P182.1

1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order,
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.




JANUARY 1985

BCD

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

j Q
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

i

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued
238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Q

237. Services in
current dollars

239. Services in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
241. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

242. Fixed investment, total, in
current dollars

243. Fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

715.4
727.9
736.8
742.6

358.7
361.2
361.6
361.7

844.8
869.0
898.0
920.3

445.4
447.9
450.5
451.2

468.1
481.1
505.8
481.7

228.5
232.8
238.5
223.7

446.2
457.3
466.2
462.8

220.4
220.5
221.0
216.4

746.4
750.6
762.5
770.6

360.5
362.0
363.7
366.0

945.4
968.6
994.2
1,020.6

454.7
458.1
461.2
465.1

436.2
431.2
415.9
376.2

204.7
200.4
194.3
177.8

453.2
442.1
431.3
437.3

211.4
204.5
200.7
202.4

....

775.2
796.9
811.7
823.0

368.8
374.9
378.5
383.2

1,035.8
1,068.6
1,085.7
1,107.5

466.8
475.1
477.6
482.0

405.0
449.6
491.9
540.0

191.3
212.6
230.6
249.5

447.9
469.0
496.2
527.3

207.8
218.7
229.8
242.2

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

841.3
858.3
861.4
p872.1

387.1
396.6
395.5
p397.5

1,124.4
1,153.7
1,182.8
pi,201.8

483.4
488.9
493.5
P496.6

623.8
627.0
662.8
P635.5

285.5
283.9
300.2
P289.1

550.0
576.4
591.0
P604.3

253.9
263.7
269.6
p274.9

1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1984

• M
GROSS PRIVATE
• t i l DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.
245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

^ H
260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

267. State and
local government
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

21.9
23.7
39.7
18.9

8.1
12.4
17.5
7.2

576.6
585.3
601.3
622.7

286.0
285.1
287.4
289.6

215.6
220.9
232.2
246.9

107.4
108.2
111.7
113.8

361.0
364.4
369.1
375.8

178.6
176.9
175.7
175.9

-17.0
-10.9
-15.3
-61.1

-6.7
-4.0
-6.4
-24.6

630.9
633.7
656.3
681.0

290.2
287.0
292.8
300.6

249.8
245.0
261.6
279.4

114.8
111.0
117.2
124.8

381.1
388.7
394.7
401.6

175.4
176.0
175.7
175.8

-42.9
-19.4
-4.3
12.7

-16.5
-6.1
0.9
7.2

678.8
682.2
689.8
691.4

294.3
292.4
292.0
288.8

273.0
270.5
269.2
266.3

119.0
117.2
115.6
113.0

405.8
411.6
420.6
425.1

175.3
175.2
176.4
175.8

73.8
50.6
71.8
p31.1

31.6
20.3
30.6
pl4.2

704.4
743.7
761.0
p782.7

289.5
302.1
306.1
p311.0

267.6
296.4
302.0
p316.1

112.2
123.2
125.0
P129.1

436.8
447.4
458.9
p466.6

177.3
178.9
181.1
P181.9

1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
IQJH

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.

ItO

JANUARY 1985



81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Di

Exports of goods ancJ services

Net exports of goods and services

Year

P |
NATIONAL INCOME
1 8 1 AND ITS COMPONENTS

FOREIGN TRADE

220. National income in current
dollars

Imports of goods and services

and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol. )

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.

(Ann. rate
bil. dol.)

257. Constan t
(1972) dollars

253 . Current
dollars

256. Constant
(1972) dollars

252. Current

255. Constant
(1972) dollar

253. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate
bil. dol.)

280. Compensation of
employees

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1981

....

33.1
22.4
24.8
31.7

48
44
40
41

8
8
6
2

368 .4
369 .8
368 7
372 .8

161
161
159
159

2
0
3
4

335 .3
347 .5
343 .9
341 .1

112 .5
116 .3
118 .7
118 .2

2,299.^ \
2,330.(
2,407.£
2,417.< >

1,716.1
1,747.6
1,785.5
1,812.5

....

27.7
35.5

....

6.6
6.3

34
34
25
24

9
1
7
1

359 .4
366 .3
346 .3
321 .7

152
155
146
136

2
1
6
7

331 ,7
330 .8
339 .7
315 .4

117 .3
121 .0
120 .9
112.6

2 , 4 2 2 . ;I
2,443.5 )
2,452.^ \
2,468.£

1,834.2
1,857.7
1,876.3
1,888.7

....

19.6
-6.5
-16.4
-29.8

22
13
11
2

9
6
9
0

328
328
342
346

5
1
0
1

138
137
141
141

2
0
6
0

308 .9
334 .5
358 .4
375 .9

115 .3
123 .4
129 .7
139 .1

2,527.C )
2,609.( )
2 , 6 8 4 . '\
2 , 7 6 6 . 1>

1,921.3
1,962.4
2,000.7
2,05$.4

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-51.5
=58.7
-90.6
p-64.3

358 9
362. 4
368 6
p364 7

144.
144.
147.
pl46.

9
7
4
2

410 .4
421 .1
459 .3
3429 .0

153 .2
156 .2
174 .4
pl61 .4

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1982
First Quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1984

-8. 3
-11. 4
-27. 0
p-15. 2

MM
282. Proprietors'
income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments

and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

NATI0NAL

NCOME ANC ITS COMPONENTS—Continued

284. Rental income
of persons with
capital consumption adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. Jol.)

286. Corporate
profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann . rate,
• j i l . dol.)

2,873.5
2,944.i
2,984.?
(NA)

M

288. Net interest

290. Gross saving
(privat i and government)

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

)il. dol.)

2,113,4
2,159.2
2,191.9
p2,226.2

SAVING

295 Business
saving

292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

127.8
123.9
129.7
119.1

38 .7
40 .8
42 .9
46 .8

194.8
184.3
195.7
184.9

222
233
253
254

0
9
9
4

469.0
475.9
503.0
489.5

355.8
364.1
380.3
390.2

121.8
122.1
145.0
160.6

116.8
107.7
102.2
117.6

47 .8
48 .3
52 .9
57 .0

159.9
161.7
163.3
151.6

263
268
257
253

6
5
7
8

447.0
445.4
397.9
344.8

378.3
386.2
393.8
393.9

142.6
136.7
134.5
130.2

114.7
116.9
123.3
131.9

57 .7
59 .0
56 .2
60 A

179.1
216.7
245.0
260.0

254 2
254 2
259 2
258. 9

393.4
414.7
455.2
485.7

417.0
441.4
469.7
486.4

128.0
96.7

119.0
128.?

154.9
149.8
153.7
P160.4

61 .0
62 .0
63 .0
p63 .8

277.4
291.1
282.8
(NA)

266.8
282. 8
293. 5
p297. 1

543.9
551.0
556.4
(NA)

498.8
SIB.3
525.3
(NA)

152.5
144.8
164.1
pl66.2

1982
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

See note on page L..
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.

82



JANUARY 1985

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Continued

Q

Year
and
quarter

Q |

SAVING—Continued

298. Government
surplus or deficit
total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

293. Personal
saving rate
(percent of disposable personal
income)

Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total
(Percent)

(Percent)

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment

249. Residential
fixed investment
(Percent)

(Percent)

247. Change in
business inventories

251. Net exports of
goods and services

(Percent)

(Percent)

1981

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-9.7
-11.4
-23.3
-62.4

6.2
6.1
7.0
7,6

62.5
62.7
62.4
62.5

11.6
11.9
12.1
12.2

3.9
3.7
3.4
3.1

0.8
0.8
1.3
0.6

1.2
0.8
0.8
1.0

-73.8
-77.6
-130.4
-179.2

6.7
6.3
6.1
5.8

63.8
64.1
65.0
65.8

12.1
11.5
11.1
10.9

2.9
3.0
2.9
3.1

-0.6
-0.4
-0.5
-2.0

0.9
1.2
0.2
0.2

-151.7
-123.4
-133.5
-129.3

5.7
4.2
5.0
5.3

65.2
65.6
65.2
65.0

10.5
10.4
10.6
11.2

3.6
4.0
4.3
4.2

-1.4
-0.6
-0.1
0.4

0.6
-0.2
-0.5
-0.9

-107.4
-109.2
-133.0
(NA)

6.1
5.7
6.3
p6.3

64.1
64.0
63.9
p63.9

11.2
11.5
11.8
pl2.0

4.3
4.3
4.2
p4.1

2.1
1.4
1.9
pO.8

-1.4
-1.6
-2.5
p-1.7

1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

g y j SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued
Year
and
quarter

Percent of national income

Percent of GNP-Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services

64. Compensation of
employees

(Percent)

(Percent)

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj'

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj»
(Percent)

(Percent)

289. Net interest

287. Corporate
profits with IVA
and CCAdj l

(Percent)

(Percent)

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

7.5
7.6
7.7
8.2

12.6
12.5
12.3
12.4

74.6
75.0
74.2
75.0

5.6
5.3
5.4
4.9

1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9

8.5
7.9
8.1
7.6

10.0
10.5
10.5

8.3
8.0
8.5
9.0

12.6
12.7
12.8
12.9

75.7
76.0
76.5
76.5

4.8
4.4
4.2
4.8

2.0
2.0
2.2
2.3

6.6
6.6
6.7
6.1

10.9
11.0
10.5
10.3

8.6
8.3
8.0
7.8

12.8
12.6
12.6
12.4

76.0
75.2
74.5
74.3

4.5
4.5
4.6
4.8

2.3
2.3
2.1
2.2

7.1
8.3
9.1
9,4

10.1
9.7
9.7
9.4

7.5
8.1
8.2
p8.4

12.3
12.3
12.4
pl2.4

73.5
73.3
73.4
(NA)

5.4
5.1
5.1
(NA)

2.1
2.1
2.1
(NA)

9.7
9.9
9.5
(NA)

9.3
9.6
9.8
(NA)

9*7

1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
'IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

JANUARY 1985



83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

PRICE MOVEMENTS
Implicit price deflator,
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1972-100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product
311, Index

(1972-100)

311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans l

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Consumer prices, food

Consumer prices, all items
320. Index <g)

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans l

(1967-100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

322. Index

(1967 = 100)

322c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans *

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1982
4.6

January
February
March

204.0

April
May
June

206.8

July
August
September . . ,

208.5

October
November . . .
December . . .

210.3

5.3

282.5
283.4
283.1

0.4
0.2
-0.1

3.5
4.4
6.0

281.8
283.4
282.7

\A

284.3
287.1
290.6

0.4
0.9
1.1

6.2
6.2
6.6

283.
285,
287

5.6

292.2
292.8
293.3

0.5
0.3
0.0

6.6
4.7
1.8

287.6
286.8
287.2

3.7

294.1
293.6
292.4

0.4
0.0
-0.3

1.4
0.7
0.8

2.7

293,
293.
293.

0.3
-0.1
0.1

3.9

295.5
297.1
298.1

4.5

0.9
0.6
-0.2

3.7
4.8
5.8

0.2
0.7
0.7

4.2
2.4
3.2

0.1
-0.3
0.1

3.0
1.8
0.6

287,
287
288.0

0.0

0.9
1.6
2.2

1.4
2.3
3.3

288.9
289.1
290.3

0.3
0.1
0.4

2.7
2.9
2.4

0.7
0.4
0.2

3.4
4.3
5.0

291.5
292.1
291.5

0.4
0.2
-0.2

1.6
1.8
1.4

299.3
300.3
301.8

0.4
0.4
0.4

4.4
4.2
4.3

291.2
291.7
292.3

-0.1
0.2
0.2

1.4
1.4
2.7

3.5

302.6
303.1
303.5

0.4
0.4
0.2

4.8
4.8
4.5

293.5
294.1
295.4

0.4
0.2
0.4

6.3
7.3
6.6

4.2

305.2
306.6
307.3

0.6
0.4
0.2

4.6
4.3
4.1

300.2
302.2
301.8

1.6
0.7
-0.1

5.7
4.7
4,0

4.1

308.8
309.7
310.7

0.5
0.2
0.2

3.4
3.6
3.9

301.7
300.9
301.3

0.0
-0.3
0.1

1.3
1.3
1.3

4.0

311.7
313.0
314.5

0.3
0.5
0.4

3.7
3.7
3.8

302.2
304.1
303.8

0.3
0.6
-0.1

2.1
3,1
3.5

p3.3

315.3
315.3
315.5

0.4
0.2
0.2

304.9
305.6
306.6

0.4
0.2
0.3

211.7
5.6
214.1
3.4
217.0
3.4
218.9

1983
January
February
March

212.9

April
May
June

214,2

July
August
September . . .

215.9

October
November . . .
December . . .

218.2

5.0
220.4
2.6
222.5
3.1
225.0
4.4
226.9

1984
January
February
March

220.6

April .
May
June

222.4

July
August
September , . .

224.6

October
November , . .
December . , .

p225.9

4.4
229.3
3.3
231.6
3.9
233.9
p2.4
p235.9

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.




JANUARY 1985

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

H 9

330. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

330c. Change
over 1-month
spansl ©

(Percent)

Producer prices, crude materials

Producer prices, industrial commodities

Producer prices, all commodities
Year
and
month

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans' (§)

335. Index ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans' ©

(Percent)

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans' ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331. Index

(1967 = 100)

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans *

(Percent)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1982
298.3
298.6
298.0

0.8
0.1
-0.2

1.3
2.1
2.4

311.8
311.6
311.0

0.6
-0.1
-0.2

0.6
0.2
0.4

320.4
319.5
317.9

1.3
-0.3
-0.5

-2.2
3.0
4.8

April
May
June

298.0
298.6
299.3

0.0
0.2
0.2

1.4
1.1
0.9

309.9
309.6
310.6

-0.4
-0.1
0.3

0.6
1.0
1.1

320.0
324.2
323.7

0.7
1.3
-0.2

0.2
-1,1
-1.3

July
August
September

300.4
300.2
299.3

0.4
-0.1
-0.3

1.2
1.1
0.9

312.8
313.2
312.7

0.7
-0.2

2.9
3.5
3.0

320.8
317.8
315.8

-0.9
-0.9
-0.6

-2.9
-3.1
-3.7

October
November
December

299.8
300.3
300.7

0.2
0.2
0.1

-0.3
0.5
0.9.

314.3
315.0
315.2

0.5
0.2
0.1

0.7
0.4
0.5

315.4
319.1
317.7

-0.1
1.2
-0.4

-2.8
0.4
2.8

January
February
March

299.9
300.9
300.6

-0.3
0.3
-0.1

0.5
0.8
1.1

313.9
313.9
313.5

-0.4
0.0
-0.1

-1.2
-0.9
0.1

316.2
318.5
320.2

-0.5
0.7
0.5

5.0
1.6
2.2

April
May
June

300.6
301.5
302.4

0.0
0.3
0.3

2.2
2.5
3.2

312.4
313.6
315.3

-0.4
0.4
0.5

1.7
2.2
2.3

323.2
321.6
321.1

0.9
-0.5
-0.2

1.1
4.1
5.4

July
August
September

303.2
304.7
305.3

0.3
0.5
0.2

3.6
2.7
2.5

316.5
317.3
317.1

0.4
0.3
-0.1

3.9
3.0
2.0

317.9
325.0
328.8

-1.0
2.2
1.2

3.7
5.5
7.9

October . . . . . . . . . .
November . .
December

306.0
305.5
306.1

0.2
-0.2
0.2

3.2
2.8
3.8

318.5
318.3
318.4

0.4
-0.1
0.0

1.6
2.1
3.1

329.2
330.4
333.6

0.1
0.4
1.0

11.7
3.7
5.1

January
February .
March

308.0
308.9
311.0

0.6
0.3
0.7

3 5
4 0
3.4

319.1
320.6
321.9

0.2
0.5
0.4

2.6
3.1
3.4

336.0
330.9
337.1

0.7
-1.5
1.9

4.7
2.1
-1.6

April
May
June

311.3
311.5
311.3

o.i
0.1
-0.1

2.5
rl.2
-1.0

322.6
323.2
323.8

0.2
0.2
0.2

3.0
rl.7
0.2

336.9
333.8
330.9

-0.1
-0.9
-0.9

-3.0
r-2.5
-5.9

July .
August
September

311.9
r310,7
309.5

0.2
r-0.4
r-0.4

-1.2
-0.7
-0.9

323.9
r323.3
322.3

0.0
r-0.2
r-0.3

331.0
r326.8
327.0

0.0
r-1.3
rO.l

-7.5
-2.0
-1.1

October
November
December

309.4
310.4
309.9

0.0
0.3
-0.2

323.2
323.8
323.0

0.3
0.2
-0.2

324.0
330.4
329.0

-0.9
2.0
-0.4

January
February
March

....

.

o.i

1983

1984

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pate 48.
Changes are centered within the spans:

RCII JANUARY 198S




0.4
0.4
-0.5

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued

Year
and
month

332. Index

(1967-100)

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans l

(Percent)

Producer prices, finished consumer goods

Producer prices, capital equipment

Producer prices, intermediate materials
333. Index

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967-100)

333c. Change
over 1-month
spans l

(Percent)

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

(1967-100)

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans '

(Percent)

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1982
January
February
March

311.6
311.
310.

0.3
-0.2
-0.3

-0.5
-0.7
-0.6

275.2
274.5
276.0

0.6
-O.3
0.5

4.9
4.4
4.4

278.2
278.3
277.5

0.7
0.0
-0.3

2.3
1,3
2.7

April
May
June

309.0
309.1
309.8

-0.4
0.0
0.2

-0.7
-0.6
0.2

276.8
277.9
279.5

0,3
0.4
0.6

3.9
5.4
4.3

277.8
277.4
280.1

0.1
-0.1
1,0

2.3
3.1
3.8

July
,
August
September , . ,

310.5
310.2
310.4

0.2

0.8
1.3
1.0

280.5
281.8
281.9

0.4
0.5
0.0

3.7
3.6
3.5

281.4
282.6
282.7

0.5
0.4
0.0

4.4

October
November
December

310.3
311.1
311.3

0.0
0.3
0.1

-0.5
-0.2
-0.8

281.9
282.8
284.3

0.0
0.3
0.5

2.6
2.3

2.8

283.8
285.6
286.1

0.4
0.6
0.2

1.4
0.6
0.0

January
February
March

309.8
309.9
309.1

-0.5
0.0
-0.3

-1.5
-1.3
0.0

284.1
285.0
285.8

-0.1
0.3
0.3

2.9
2.6
1.9

283.4
283.4
282.7

-0.9
0.0
-0.2

-0.8
• 1.6
-1.0

April
May
June

307.
309
311.3

-0.4
0.4
0.7

1.6
2.3
4.1

285.9
286.5
287.0

0.0
0.2
0.2

2.4
2.7
1.9

282,
283.
284.

0.0
0.3
0.4

0.8
1.5
2.4

July
August . .
September

312.2
313.4
315.3

0.3
0.4
0.6

5.5
4.9
3.8

287.5
288.8
288.5

0.2
0.5
-0.1

1.9
1.8
2.0

284.
285.
286.

0.0
0.3
0.2

2.9
2.0
1.4

October
November
December

316.2
316.6
317.1

0.3
0.1
0.2

3.1
2.7
2.6

288.6
289.0
289.8

0.0
0.1
0.3

2.1
2.0
2.8

286.6
286.3
286.7

0.2
-0.1
0.1

2.9
3.0
3.5

317.0
317.6
319.3

0.0
0.2
0.5

2.1
2.4
2.9

290.5
291.7
292.. 5

0.2
0.4
0.3

4.0
3.4
3.1

288.7
289.8
291.0

0.7
0.4
0.4

2.8
2.8
2.5

319.
320,
321.6

0.1
0.3
0.4

2.5
1.8
0.5

294.3
293.9
294.2

0.6
-0.1
0.1

3.1
r2.8
2.6

290,
290,
290.

-0.1
-0.1
0.0

1.6
r0.3
-0.7

321.0
320.5
320.1

-0.2
-0.2
-0.1

0.6
0.8
-0.3

294.9
r295.
296,

0.2
r0.3
r0.2

0.2
1.0
1.2

291.0
r290.3
290.0

0.3
r-0.2
r-0.1

-0.5
0.9
1.0

320.5
321.6
321.1

0.1
0.3
-0.2

294.6
295.3
295.9

-0.6
0.2
0.2

289.9
291.6
291.7

0.0
0.6
0.0

6.0
4.3

1983

1984
January
February
March
April .
May
June

,,. .

July ,
August
September
October
November
December

.......
.......

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
Changes arc centered within the spans:




1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

JANUARY 1985

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adjusted'
Year
and
month
340. Index

(1977=*100)

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans 2
(Percent)

Current-dollar compensation

Real earnings

Current-dollar earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2

341. Index

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1977 = 100)

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans 2
(Percent)

341c. Change
over 6-month
spans*
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345. Index

(1977-100)

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans 2

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans 2

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1982

January
February
March

145,
145,
145,

1.2
0.1
0.3

6.6
6.5
6.8

93.2
93.0
93.5

April
May
June

146.5
147.6
148.1

0.5
0.7
0.4

5.5
6.5
6.4

July
August
September . . .

149,
149,
150.3

0.6
0.6
0.2

October
November . . .
December .. .

150.9
151.3
152.2

January
February
March

10.6

0.8
-0.1
0.5

3.3
2.2
1.0

150.7

93.7
93.5
92.9

152.9

-0.7

-0.6
0.4
-0.3

6.1
5.1
5.6

92.9
93.2
93.4

0.0
0.3
0.2

-0.6
0.3
3.5

155.6

0.4
0.3
0.6

5.2
5.0
4.5

93.4
93.6
94.5

0.0
0.3
0.9

4.2
4.5
3.6

157.5

152.9
153.6
153.6

0.4
0.5
0.0

4.4
4.6
3.8

94.8
95.3
95.1

0.4
0.5
-0.2

3.1
2.5
1.0

159.7

April
May
June

154.2
154.7
155.1

0.4
0.3
0.2

3.7
2.4
3.4

94.8
94.8
94.9

-0.2
0.0
0.1

0.3
-1.9
-1.1

161.0

July
August
September . . .

155.6
155.4
156.2

94,
94,
94,

fl.O
-0.6
0.2

-0.3
-0.5
-0.1

161.9

0.5

3.7
3.2
3.5

October
November . . .
December . . .

157.1
157.2
157.8

0.5
0.1
0.4

3.7
4.0
3.7

94,
94,
94.9

0.2
-0.2
0.3

-0.3
0.8
1.2

163.7

January
February
March

158.4
158.5
159.1

0.4
0.1
0.4

3.6
3.1
3.2

94.8
94.8
95.1

0.0
-0.1
0.3

1.4
0.7
0.7

165.9

April
May
June

159.9
159.6
160.3

0.5
-0.2
0.4

95,
94,
95,

0.3
-0.5
0.3

0.7
-1.5
-1.8

167.4

July
August
September . . .

160.8
160., 6
161.6

0.3
-0.2
0.6

3.0
2.6
3.2
rl.8
r3.0
p3.5

r-3.1
r-1.4
p-1.0

rl68.9

October
November . . .
December . . .

rl61.3
rl62.0
P163.0

r-0.2
0.4
p0.6

0.0
-1.2
0.2
r-0.4
0.4
p0.4

7.7
5.8
7.2
7.4
6.0
5.0
5.3

1983

5.7
4,1
3.3
3.9
2.3
3.9
4.5
3.9

1984

95.
94.
94.2
93.9
r94.2
P94.7

5.4
4.3
3.5
p4.1
r3.7

p3.6
P170.4

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.

JANUARY 1985



87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q

Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries ©

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector-Continued
Year
and
month

348. First year
average changes

Real compensation
346. Index

(1977-100)

WAGES> AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spansl

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output j)er hour, all persons , private
business sector
370. Index

(1977 = 100)

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans '

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

358. Index of
output per hour
all persons,
nonfarm
business sector

(1977=100)

1982
6.6

January
February
March

96*5

April
May
June

96.6

July
August
September

96*6

October
November
December

97*4

i*8

0.3

1.9

100 * 9

2.6

2.1

2.6

0.2

6.2

4.7

3.3

99*8

1.3

99.4

L2

100*3

3*3

100*5

3*.4

10L6

3*i

103*6

3*5

104! i

3*3

104*4

r2*7

105*2

p3*6

106*6

2.4
100*9

4.8

2.0

-6*6

-2.3
100.3

2*3

3.4

2.5

1.2

2.7
101*6

1983
January
February
March

. ,

5.3
98.'7

-1.0

April
May
June

98*. 5

July
August
September

98*0

October
November
December

98*. 1

i*5
6*6

-1.8

-1.6

1.4

4.4

3.6

5.0

-6'.3

5.9
103*6

4.3

-0*6

0.1

2.1
102.'2

2.8
104! 3

4.9

3.1

1.4

ioi! 7

1984
0.4

January
February
March

98*2

April
May
June

98* i

July
August
September

98*2

October
November
December

p98*i

-0.1

po'6
rO.l

4.7

4.0
105*7

3.5

3.2

4.9
107.0

r2.7

r3.1

rO.6
rlO7*2

p-0.3

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
l
Changes are centered within the spans:
on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




5.1

roll

p3.8

p2.0

r!06*3

P2.6
plO6*7

plO7*9

1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are placed

JANUARY 1985

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

D

| CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

Labor force participation rates

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

441. Total

(Thous.)
Revised1

451. Males
20 years
and over

442. Employed

(Percent)

(Thous.)

Revised

1

1982

l

C)

Number unemployed

452. Females
20 years
and over

453. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

(Percent)

Revised

1

Revised

1

37. Total

444. Males
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

Revised

1

(Thous.)

Revised

1

445. Females
20 years
and over

446. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

Revised

1

Revised

1

447. Fulltime
workers

448. Number employed
part-time
for economic
reasons

(Thous.)

• (Thous.)

1

Revised 1

Revised

January
February
March

109,121
109,501
109,649

99,737
99,785
99,738

78.6
78.7
78.7

52.2
52.4
52.6

54.5
54.8
54.0

9,384
9,716
9,911

4,350
4,439
4 625

3,125
3,304
3 408

1,909
1,973
1 878

7,814
8,020
8 336

4,834
5,429
5 613

April
May
June

109,851
110,514
109,990

99,584
100,088
99,435

78.8
79.0
78.8

52.5
52.8
52.9

54.3
55.5
52.2

10,267
10,426
10,555

4,758
4,852
5,099

3,551
3,569
3,566

1,958
2,005
1,890

8,562
8,734
8,944

5,748
5,818
5,716

Julv
August
September

110,322
110,522
110,703

99,471
99,636
99,487

78.8
r78.7
78.9

52.9
53.0
52.9

53.2
54.3
54.0

10,851
10,886
11,216

5,187
5,229
5,529

3,652
3,647
3,692

2,012
2,010
1,995

9,095
9,180
9,575

5,711
5,917
6,389

October
November
December

110,727
110,997
110,953

99,202
99,098
99,062

r78.9
78.8
78.6

52.7
52.9
53.1

54.2
54.5
53.6

11,525
11,899
11,891

5,703
5,843
5,812

3,809
4,004
4,064

2,013
2,052
2,015

9,906
10,138
10,186

6,449
6,367
6,346

January
February
March

110,746
110,700
110,733

99,233
99,144
99,303

78.2
78.2
78.2

53.0
53.0
52.9

53.9
53.0
53.0

11,513
11,556
11,430

5,587
5,737
5,620

3,990
3,950
3,895

1,936
1,869
1,915

9,802
9,915
9,747

6,456
6,303
6,179

April
May
June

110,906
110,892
111,717

99,590
99,634
100,444

78.4
78.4
r78.6

52.9
52.7
53.1

52.8
52.5
54.5

11,316
11,258
11,273

5,669
5,657
5,408

3,751
3,750
3,861

1,896
1,851
2,004

9,656
9,521
9,382

6,021
5,989
5,945

July
August
September

111,707
112,184
112,264

101,173
101,589
101,983

78.7
78.6
r78.5

52.9
53.3
53.5

53.7
54.9
53.6

10,534
10,595
10,281

5,186
5,129
5,016

3,481
3,567
3,513

1,867
1,899
1,752

8,934
8,948
8,733

5,858
5,958
5,974

October
November
December

111,914
112,150
112,237

102,042
102,702
103,029

78.4
78.4
78.3

53.3
53.2
53.3

52.8
53.3
53.5

9,872
9,448
9,208

4,801
4,592
4,382

3,359
3,225
3,227

1,712
1,631
1,599

8,315
7,924
7,679

5,726
5,884
5,677

January
February
March

112,320
112,724
112,906

103,294
103,888
104,123

78.3
r78.3
78.3 .

53.1
53.3
53.5

53.4
53.8
53.9

9,026
8,836
8,783

4,273
4,139
4,048

3,191
3,135
3,148

1,562
1,562
1,587

7,532
7,321
7,301

5,719
5,697
5,465

Aprit
May
June

113,202
113,722
113,619

104,402
105,162
105,391

78.3
78.3
r78.3

53.6
54.1
53.8

54.2
54.3
54.3

8,800
8,560
8,228

4,087
3,909
3,807

3,161
3,127
2,972

1,552
1,524
1,449

7,331
7,056
6,578

5,520
5,377
5,549

July
August
September

113,868
113,629
113,764

105,377
105,148
105,394

78.3
78.3
78.3

54.0
53.9
53.6

54.5
53.0
54.2

8,491
8,481
8,370

3,884
3,836
3,817

3,130
3,214
3,044

1,477
1,431
1,509

7,010
6,933
6,931

5,482
5,384
5,449

October
November .
December

114,016
114,074
114,464

105,649
105,932
106,273

78.3
78.3
78.3

53.9
53.9
54.0

53.7
53.5
54.1

8,367
8,142
8,191

3,731
3,725
3,759

3,173
3,027
2,952

1,463
1,390
1,480

6,932
6,768
6,811

5,483
5,413
5,596

1983

1984

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.
a
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/ page i i i .

BUI

JANUARY 1985



OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

DEFENSE INDICATORS

RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
State and local governments'

Federal Government'
Year
and
month

500. Surplus
or deficit

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

510. Surplus
or deficit

511. Receipts

(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

Advance measures of defense activity

512. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

525. Defense
Department
military prime
contract
awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
outstanding

548. Value of
manufacturers1
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dot.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

January
February
March

-106.3

622.9

729.3

32.5

430.1

397.6

19,361
20,608
18,869

9,756
13,761
9,870

98,818
102,677
105,418

6,987
6,639
6,917

April .
May .
June .

-112.0

625.9

737.9

34.4

440.1

405.7

20,793
17,786
17,503

10,518
9,657
14,296

108,428
108,841
109,654

6,386
5,273
5,752

July . . . .
August . .
September

-163.7

609.9

773.6

33.3

445.9

412.6

17,669
16,448
18,387

8,610
8,928
10,296

110,885
110,787
111,857

5,055
5,762
4,149

October
November . . .
December . . .

-210.6

608.3

818.9

31.5

451.6

420.2

16,476
18,599
24,396

5,423
10,209
17,298

111,866
113,647
119,788

5,978
5,769
10,410

January . ,
February ,
March . ..

-185.7

619.8

805.6

34.1

458.3

424.2

21,340
19,502
20,444

16,908
13,042
7,351

122,628
123,803
125,570

9,419
5,105
6,751

April .
May ,
June ,

-167.3

649.3

816.7

43.9

473.5

429.6

19,332
19,554
21,518

10,132
10,111
10,814

126,165
126,532
129,720

7,309
4,805
7,692

July
August
September . .

-180.9

640.2

821.1

47,4

486,1

438.7

19,409
20,489
20,388

11,017
10,727
10,921

131,172
130,829
133,056

6,750
5,103
5,154

October
November ..
December . .

-180.5

655.0

835.5

51.2

495.0

443.8

17,201
24,242
24,204

2,820
16,140
9,463

131,130
139,062
141,820

6,566
9,004
7,600

January .
February
March . .

-161.3

686.4

847.6

53.9

509.6

455.7

21,145
22,667
23,445

15,089
14,273
13,779

142,169
145,648
150,842

6,608
7,289
11,539

April . . .
May . . ,
June . . .

-163.7

704.3

868.0

54,5

520.6

466.1

19,185
20,342
19,781

11,398
9,459
11,644

149,369
149,452
151,538

6,248
5,679
6,990

July . . . .
August . .
September

-180.6

706.2

6.8

47.6

524.6

477.0

20,988
23,098
22,191

10,101
12,647
11,441

152,828
156,271
156,950

7,215
7,584
6,586

October . .
November
December

(NA)

P917.3

(NA)

(NA)

P485.8

r20,821
p31,772

(NA)

(NA)

159,226
167,644
(NA)

4,916
rlO,343
p8,521

(Mil. dol.)

1982

1983

1984

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1
Based on national, income and product accounts.

90



JANUARY 1985

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued

Q

DEFENSE INOICATORS-Conttnued

National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

557. Output of
defense and
space equipment

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

580. Defense
Department
net outlays

(1967-100)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

570. Employment in defense products
industries

(Mil.dol.)

(Thous.)

Defense Department
personnel
577. Military,
active duty ©

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment ©

(Thous.)

(Thous,)

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services

565. Federal
purchases as
a percent of
GNP

(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)

(Percent)

1982
81,014
83,275
85,687

14,152
14,689
15,075

4,110
4,378
4,505

1,386
1,380
1,377

2,104
2,109
2,107

1,008
1,013
1,018

168*4

107.0

13,677
13,841
14,024

5.6

April
May
June

107.2
107.7
107.6

14,172
14,251
14,421

87,763
88,318
89,149

15,670
15,379
15,334

4,311
4,717
4,921

1,375
1,370
1,368

2,106
2,104
2,108

1,022
1,028
1,045

175.3

5^7

July
August
September . . . . . .

109.5
109.5
109.5

14,473
14,714
15,092

89,432
90,418
89,575

16,312
15,050
16,881

4,772
4,776
4,992

1,368
1,358
1,360

2,110
2,109
2,109

1,051
1,043
990

183*. 3

6.'6

October
November
December

111.9
113.6
115.9

15,402
15,594
15,938

90,534
91,326
96,654

15,972
17,087
16,779

5,020
4,977
5,082

1,356
1,354
1,350

2,108
2,114
2,113

1,016
1,024
1,027

191.0

6,'i

116.4
116.1
117.0

16,545
16,458
16,774

100,886
100,716
102,234

17,058
16,772
16,804

5,187
5,275
5,233

1,344
1,346
1,342

2,120
2,122
2,127

1,024
1,028
1,030

194*7

6.'i

April
May
June

118.2
117.6
118.0

16,782
17,185
17,295

104,234
103,804
106,114

17,529
16,854
17,189

5,309
5,235
5,382

1,345
1,349
1,354

2,123
2,120
2,116

1,029
1,040
1,049

199.3

6.1

July
August
. .
September . . . . . . .

120.4
120.2
121.8

17,400
17,803
17,508

107,287
106,908
106,596

16,975
18,455
17,463

5,577
5,482
5,466

1,361
1,344
1,364

2,113
2,115
2,123

1,053
1,052
1,026

200.9

6\6

October
November
December

122.9
124.0
125.7

17,358
. 17,363
17,759

107,522
110,839
112,761

17,781
17,329
18,726

5,640
5,687
5,678

1,369
1,369
1,378

2,120
2,126
2,124

1,034
1,040
1,045

207.2

6*6

January
February
March

128.3
129.5
130.1

17,812
18,217
18,537

113,650
115,087
120,894

18,448
17,801
17,794

5,718
5,852
5*731

1,382
1,391
1,400

2,130
2,135
2,140

1,042
1,043
1,046

213.4

6.0

April
May
june

133.2
133.1
133.5

18*925
19,492
19,989

121,158
121,088
122,100

18,525
18,609
18,953

5,985
5,749
5,977

1,408
1,420
1,433

2,138
2,141
2 143

1,049
1,061
1 071

220.8

6*1

July
August
September

135.9
136.8
rl39.5

20,776
21,263
22,206

123,319
124,774
125,223

18,405
19,181
19,469

5,993
6,129
6,136

1,443
1,452
1,463

2,142
2,144
2,138

1,079
1,074
1,043

220.3

6.0

October
November
December

rHl.l
rl41.8

22,627
22,308
(NA)

123,790
rl27,857
pl29,944

18,687
r20,152
pl9,309

6,350
r6,275
p6,434

rl,473
pi,476
(NA)

2,138
2,141
p2,138

1,058
pi,065
(NA)

p231*4

p6\2

January
February
March

105.2
106.5

1983
January
February . .
March . •.

...

.......

IQJtA

. ..

P143.1

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.

ICO

JANUARY 1985



91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

MERCHANDISE TRADE

Year
and
month

602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

604. Exports of domestic agricultural
products

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

(Mil. dot.)

(Mil. dot.)

612. General imports,
total

(Mil. dol.)

614. Imports of
petroleum and
petroleum products

(Mil.dol.)

616. Imports of
automobiles and parts

(Mil. dol.)

1982
January
February
March

18,584
18,614
18,462

3,258
3,590
3,225

4,346
4,054
3,997

22,573
19,570
20,018

6,810
4,396
4,290

2,389
2,135
2,596

April
May
June

18,005
18,124
18,823

,400
,527
,332

3,932
3,957
4,211

17,714
20,477
21,187

3,894
4,180
4,855

2,389
2,785
2,626

July
August
September . . .

18,060
17,463
17,320

2,789
2,763
2,648

4,305
3,856
4,197

19,849
22,930
20,581

5,624
5,731
4,903

2,455
2,795
2,370

October
November . . .
December . . .

16,671
15,852
16,347

2,681
2,783
2,637

3,829
3,686
3,719

21,006
18,892
19,154

5,433
4,757
4,694

2,444
2,130
2,189

January . . . .
February
March

17,232
16,312
16,690

3,128
2,985
2,811

3,644
3,359
3,499

20,127
18,804
19,528

4,166
2,859
3,261

2,329
3,019
2,676

April
May
June

16,095
15,655
16,959

2,891
2,715
2,977

3,513
3,433
3,265

19,914
21,446
20,916

3,252
5,284
4,203

2,746
3,001
2,851

July
August
September , . .

16,486
16,582
17,257

3,072
2,973
3,322

3,655
3,290
3,718

21,828
22,714
22,451

5,220
4,828
5,538

2,988
2,762
2,547

October
November . . .
Oecember . . ,

17,033
17,063
17,298

2,979
3,109
3,175

3,689
3,686
3,683

24,333
23,115
22,976

5,232
5,036
3,713

3,154
3,425
3,724

January
February
March

18,326
17,212
17,727

3,457
3,198
3,336

4,009
3,848
3,764

26,586
26,147
26,771

4,456
4,258
5,287

3,776
3,323
3,728

April
May
June

17,522
17,950
17,633

31,883
26,567
29,430

6,348
4,783
4,671
5,103
4,049
4,444

4,011
3,682

19,442
18,036
18,177

3,811
3,976
3,746
3,790
3,878
3,640

28,368
25,569
25,356

July
August
September . . .

3,030
3,245
2,715
3,236
3,022
3,153

4,010
3,648
4,681

October
November . . .
December . . ,

18,387
18,373
(NA)

2,799
3,242
(NA)

4,007
3,905
(NA)

26,313
27,033

4,034
4,692

3,460
3,824

(NA)

(NA)

1983

1984

(NA)

3,630

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pace 56.

92




JANUARY 1985

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Q |

GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted '

Goods and services
Year
and
month

667. Balance

(Mil. dot.)

668. Exports

(Mil.dol.)

"

669. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

622. Balance

(Mil. dol.)

618. Exports

(Mil.dol.)

Income on investments
620. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

651. U.S. investments abroad

(Mil.dol.)

652. Foreign
investments in
the United
States

(Mil.dol.)

1982
January
February
March

2,270

90,082

87,812

-7,064

55,482

62,546

20,889

13,653

April
May
June

3,729

91,274

87,545

-5,803

55,U8

60,921

22,307

14,772

July
August
September

-3,231

87,158

90,389

-12,363

52,079

64,442

21,505

14,390

October
November
December

-3,908

80,936

84,844

-11,239

48,519

59,758

19,162

13,243

January
February
March

-1,370

81,111

82,481

-9,277

49,246

58,523

17,618

12,380

April
May
June

-7,712

81,355

89,067

-14,870

48,745

63,615

18,973

12,995

July
August
September

-9,703

84,826

94,529

-17,501

50,437

67,938

20,802

13,630

October
November
December

-14,127

84,910

99,037

-19,407

51,829

71,236

19,609

14,490

January
February
March

-17,526

90,689

108,215

-25,855

53,935

79,790

23,300

15,552

April
May
June

-22,547

88,900

111,447

-25,845

54,563

80,408

20,822

17,363

p-30,082

p91,672

pl21 754

p-33,134

p55,497

p88,631

p22,501

p l 8 823

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1983

1984

July
August
September

.......

October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).

KCII

JANUARY 1985



93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

Year
and
month

47. United States,
index of industrial production

(1967-100)

721. OECD l
European countries, index of
industrial
production

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

726. France,
index of industrial production

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

723, Canada,
index of indus
trial production

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

1982
January
February
March

140.
142.
141,

153
154
154

232.7
231.4
233.4

153
154
156

157
155
155

118
118
118

161.9
169.9
165.6

155.5
153.8
152.2

April
May
June

140.2
139.2
138.7

153
153
151

230,
228.
231,

154
153
151

157
157
157

119
120
119

164,
162,
154,

149,
150,
147.0

July
August
September . .

138.8
138.4
137.3

150
148
150

230.5
230.7
231.8

148
150
148

154
154
154

119
120
120

159.
146.
154.0

142.4
148,
144,

October
November . .
December . ,

135.7
134.9
135.2

148
150
148

225.7
230.7
228.4

146
146
145

155
157
154

120
118
120

149.8
155.4
151.9

140.5
141.1
140.3

January
February . . .
March

137.4
138.1
140.0

150
150
150

229.5
228.0
232.7

146
148
150

157
155
155

122
122
120

152.0
152.2
149.4

147.7
147.6
148.3

April .
May
June . . . . . . .

142.6
144,
146,

150
151
153

233.0
235.2
235.9

150
150
156

155
160
157

122
123
120

142.1
144.4
144.4

150.0
151.7
155.0

July
August
September . , ,

149.7
151.8
153.8

153
153
153

236.4
242.3
245.0

150
150
153

159
159
157

124
124
125

153.8
148.9
148.3

156.9
159.1
162.0

October
November . . .
December . . .

155.0
155.3
156.2

153
156
154

244.5
247.7
250.9

154
156
157

155
162
160

125
125
127

150.2
153.3
149.6

162.7
164.1
165.3

January
February
March

158.5
160.0
160.8

158
158
156

251.4
260.2
256.4

157
159
154

162
160
162

125
125
124

152.4
150.2
155.6

168.4
163.2
165.3

April
May . . . . . . .
June , , , , . , .

162.1
162.8
164.4

153
156
151

257.7
263.9
265.2

154
156
140

157
162
159

123
122
123

149.4
154.9
156.2

165.9
167.1
168.0

July .
August
September . . .

165.9
166.0
165.0

158
158
158

266.4
268.4
265.2

161
157
157

165
165
159

rl22
122
123

154.
156,
158,

174.0
P173.1
rl69.6

October
November . , .
December .

rl64.5
rl65.2
P166.2

P158
(NA)

P272.3
(NA)

pl62
(NA)

pl62
(NA)

P124
(NA)

P154.3
(NA)

rl69.5
P173.2

1983

1984

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

94




JANUARY 1985

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q
Japan

United States
Year
and
month

320. Index ®

(1967 = 100)

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

738. Index @

(1967 = 100)

CONSUMER PRICES
West Germany

738c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

(Ann. rate,
percent)

735. Index <g)

(1967 = 100)

United kingdom

France

735c. Change
over 6-month
spans *

736. Index ®

736c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index ©

(1967-100)

732c, Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1982
January
February
March

282.5
283.4
283.1

3.5
4.4
6.0

300.7
299.8
300.4

1.9
0.5
0.1

192.3
192.8
193.1

3.0
3.5
4.9

356.0
359,6
363.8

13.0
12.0
12.0

499.0
499.1
503.5

8.4
7,3
6.0

April
May
June

284.3
287.1
290.6

6.2
6.2
6.6

302.9
303.8
303.8

-0.5
2.9
4.0

194.0
195.2
197.1

4.9
5.4
6.3

368.2
371.1
373.7

9.9
8.2
7.2

513.6
517.3
518.9

6.0
6.0
4.7

July
August
September

292.2
292.8
293.3

6.6
4.7
1.8

301.5
303.8
309.1

4.4
4.1
3.7

197.6
197.3
197.9

6.8
5.9
4.0

374.7
375.9
377.5

5.8
6.9

7.3

518.9
519.0
518.7

5.3
5.3
4.2

October
November
December

294.1
293.6
292.4

1.4
0.7

0.8

310.0
306.6
306.0

4.0
0.7
0.9

198.5
198.9
199.4

2.7
2.3
2.3

379.5
383.2
386.4

9.5
10.3
10.8

521.3
523.9
522.9

4.0
5.6
4.6

293.1
293.2
293.4

1.4
2.3
3.3

306.6
305.5
307.5

-0.3
1.7
0.5

199.8
200.0
201.2

1.4
1.5
1.9

390.1
392.9
396.5

12.3
11.2
10.2

523.5
525.8
526.7

2.3
1.7
2.8

April
May
June

295.5
297.1
298.1

3.4
4.3
5.0

308.6
312.0
309.7

0.7
1.7
0.3

201.7
202.2
202.9

3.4
4.8
4.5

401.8
404.5
406.9

9.8
9.7
9.6

534.1
536.4
537.7

4.5
4.3
6.1

July
August
September

4.4

308.3
307.4
311.4

3.2
1.9
3.1

203.6
204.3
204.9

5.0
4,4
4.4

410.4
412.8
416.0

8.6

4.2

.

299.3
300.3
301.8

540.6
543.0
545.4

7,7
7.4
7.7

October . .
November
December

302.6
303.1
303.5

314.2
312.2
311.4

3.0
4.2
4.5

204.9
205.2
205.7

3.4
2.6
1,8

419.2
420.9
422.4

8.3

547.3
549.2
550.7

6.0
5.0
4.6

1.7
2.3
1.1

206.6
207.1
207.3

1 2
1.6
1.5

425.4
428.0
431.0

6.8
7.0

7.1

550.4
552.6
554.4

3.3
2.9
2.9

1983
January
February
March

. ..

4.3
4.8
4.8
4.5

8.3

8.4
8.2

7.5

1984
January
February
March

305.2
306.6
307.3

4.1

312.3
314.2
315,1

April
May
June

308.8
309.7
310.7

3.4
3.6
3.9

315.9
318.2
315.6

2.3
-0.3
0.1

207.7
207.8
208.6

1.0
0.7
1.1

433.6
436.2
438.4

6.8
7.0
7.0

561.8
563.9
565.3

3.2
5.1
5.0

July
August
September

311.7
313.0
314.5

3.7
3.7
3.8

316.2
313.4
318.5

1.8
1.7
<NA)

208.2
207.8
208.0

2.6
2.5
(NA)

441.5
443.7
445.9

7.7
7.2
(NA)

564.7
570.0
571,1

6.5
6.8
6.3

October
November
December

315.3
315.3
315.5

4.6
4.3

321.0
319.0
(NA)

209.2
209.6
(NA)

449.0
450.3
(NA)

574.6
576.4
575.9

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

JANUARY 1985




95

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

1Q j CONSUMEF

t PRICES—Continued

Year
and
month

Q

Italy

Canada

737. Index © 737c, Change
over 6-month
spans'

733. Index @ 733c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(1967-100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

STOCK PRICES

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ®

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ©

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©

747, Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ®

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

1983
Janudry
February
March

602.7
610.5
616.0

13.2
13.1

312.5
313.9
317.1

3.8
2.8
3.8

156.9
159.7
165.2

533.3
530.8
544.2

126.0
131.9
143.9

159.1
165.0
179.1

371.9
381.6
388.3

95.5
109.1

118.7

210.0
216.6
219.5

April
May
June

622.2
628.2
632.2

14.0
13.6
13.6

317.1
317.9
321.5

5.5
6.3
4.9

171.6
178.5

181.0

559.7
573.4
583.3

157.0
158.6
159.5

188.7
200.4
196.8

410.4
403.7
426.1

115.8
111.6
110.3

240.0
251.8
260.2

July
August
September

638.5
641.1
649.4

13.6
12.5
12.0

322.9
324.5
324.5

5.8
5.7
5.3

181.6
176.7
181.8

598.7
606.4
619.7

169.0
166.9
164.7

206.1
220.2
224.9

418.9
431.8
422.6

112.9
120.5
118.4

264.3
267.3
272.0

October....
November . . .
December . .

660.4
667.0
670.3

11.1
11.0
11.1

326.5
326.5
327.5

5.4
4.9
4.4

182.4
179.7
178.8

621.0
621.5
638.6

173.4
176.7
179.2

225.3
239.5
247.6

411.2
424.1
432.6

111.6
112.7
112.8

251.1
273.6
268,6

January . . . .
February . . .
March

678.3
685.8
690.6

10.7
10.7
11.1

329.2
331.1
331.9

4.3
4.2
3.0

181.0
171.1
171.3

687.6
699.6
736.1

185.3
182.3
178.4

275.9
263.4
261.1

457.2
457.2
485.3

125.3
128.7
128.5

259.5
259.5
260.0

April
May .
June

695.4
699.6
703.8

10.0
9.8
8.3

332.7
333.3
334.7

2.9
2.5
3.2

171.4
170.3
166.6

776.0
744.6
711.2

177.9
178.0
175.8

285.4
277.1
272,3

495.0
489.6
468.7

124.9
122.5
119.6

252.0
P245.6
P242.6

July . . .
August
September

705.9
708.0
713.0

7.0
6.2
6.6

336.6
336.6
336.9

2.3
3.9
4.5

164.3
178.9
180.7

701.3
728.8
738.6

167.2
172.0
178.3

256.7
274.3
287.0

447.5
478.6
497.0

121.4
128.7
127.6

P234.0
P252.5
p256.6

October
November .
December

720.1
724.4
729.5

179.3
180.9
178.9

760.5
774.7
rp788.3

185.2
185.1
187.4

287.9
282.8
rp278.5

503.7
525.9
rp551.8

127.4
126.5
rpl30.9

P257.1
P259.2
rp256.0

pl84.7

P812.3

P196.1

P288.4

p580.7

P121.8

p260.6

12.9

1984

337.5
339.7
339.9

1985
January
February
March
April
May
June

. .

July
August
September
October
November . . . . . . .
December .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
x
Changcs over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

96




JANUARY 1985

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year

Jan.

195 0 . . .
1951...
1952...
195 3 . . .
1954 . . .
195 5 . . .
195 6 . . .
195 7 . . .
195 8 . . .
195 9 . . .
1960...
1961 . . .
1962...
1963...
1964.. .
1965.. .
1966...
1967.. .
196 8 . . .
1969.. .
1970...
1971 . . .
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983 . ..
1984...
962.
1950 . . .
1951...
195 2 . . .
195 3 . . .
1954...
1955...
195 6 . . .
1957 . . .
1958...
195 9 . . .
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966.. .
1967 . . .
196 8 . . .
196 9 . . .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973,>.
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
197 8 . . .
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
962.

1951...
195 2 . . .
195 3 . . .
1954...
1955 . . .
1956...
195 7 . . .
195 8 . . .
195 9 . . .
1960...
1961...
1962 . . .
1963 . . .
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
196 8 . . .
196 9 . . .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977.,,
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983..,
1984...
NOTE:

Mar.

Feb.
5

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

AVERAGE WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
CT1tOUSANDS)

2 94
174
221
175
303
256
218
242

288
181
201
177
31 8
240
226
225

276
166
209
188
320
228
221
21 9

263
199
219
179
313
228
223
239

292
281
393
301
310
283
243
222
196
206
179
240
292
264
226
294
522
360
3 94
343
353
416
424
563
507

284
271
429
295
301

258
303
379
287
288

248
219
231
196
186
256
2 86
262
223
315
532
340
427
381
352
397
410
514
478

237
182
256
194
185
262
294
258
227
302
536
358
346
335
346
43 8
413
566
479

DIFFUSION

244
294
381
283
293

250
199
213
198
313
222
236
244
400
246
316
358
301
288

252
209
242
195
314
222
227
246
410
258
322
334
304
2 84

223
236
315
207
294
223
245
267
350
264
335
348
303
282

237
179
25 9
193
181
326
281
260
238
289
521
371
371
322
411
532
3 95
566
470

224
192
236
195
182
302
290
262
234
294
496
392
378
324
341
616
401
5 85
453

224
194
231
194
197
291
289
286
233
314
491
3 94
358
331
358
581
405
551
406

231
199
231
192
195
273
285
272
232
294
442
3 93
370
347
377
510
3 95
533
3 80

170
254
207
229
319
233
224
235
363
291
363
316
305
2 90
244
248
195
212
199
196
287
325
246
247
350
449
3 89
368
339
3 83
495
421
605
408

INDEX OF IN ITIAL CLAIHS FOR UNEMPLO* MENT INSURANCE,
(PERCENT DECLINING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

194
234
175
251
315
224
214
302
314
311
373
304
304
282
249
209
203
220
188
202
329
294
250
244
419
420
409
357
326
400
447
517
651

200
210
169
298
276
215
223
320
311
351
385
305
299
276
262
212
208
209
190
211
322
283
241
251
473
393
390
347
340
420
422
539
616

197
213
190
280
253
214
230
355
320
275
381
296
310
301
251
206
219
204
190
210
299
265
236
284
494
364
361
342
347
428
420
551
531

286
174
210
180
314
241
222
229
3 99
278
285
400
294
300
27 7
243
208
228
199
183
253
291
261
225
304
530
353
389
353
350
417
416
548
488

41 . 2
39.2
54.9
27.5
90.2
52.9
35 . 3
26.5
86.3
31.4

45 .1
60.6
54.9
15.7
70.6
31.4
49.0
52.9
82.4
37.3

72.5
48.0
11.8
43.1
74.5
62.7
70.6
27.5
19.6
78.4

85.3
41 . 2
47 . 1
31.4
49.0
60 . 8
63.7
27.5
62.7
9,8
70.6
39.2
72.5
25.5
39.2
86.3
40.2
76.5
76.5
25.5
11 . 8
68.6
31.4

25 .5
26.5
63.7
62.7
76.5
39.2
15.7
36.3
57.8
86.3
77.5
47.1
17 . 6
47.1
64.7
74.5
39.2
33.3
33.3
19.6

45.1
58.8
39.2
52.9
47.1
29.4
35.3
70.6
85 .3
27.5
29.4
25 .5
51.0
82.4
78.4
27.5
41.2

66.7
49.0
28.4
35.3
51.0
66.7
83.3
45.1
17.6
25 .5
74.5
68.6
76.5

31.4
41 . 2
47.1
82.4
80.4
27.5
23.5
76.5
21 . 6
74.5
39.2
21.6

35.3
41 .2
74.5

70 .6
76.5
23.5

76.5
24.5
47.1

37.3
7 9.4
82.4

94.1
66 .7
13.7

11,8
58.8
78.4

81,4
38.2
33.3

45 .1
29.4
66.7

64.7
80.4
71.6

80.4
35.3
45 . 1
49.0

34.3
29.4
62.7
58.8

64.7
39.2
64.7
39.2

82.4
72.5

25 .5
27.5

35,3
66.7

62.7

13.7

58.8

58.8

56.9

82.4
35.3

5.9
28.4

54.9
72.5

59.8
19.6

52.0
33.3

74.5
92.2

43.1
15.7

49.0
51.0

82.4
47.1

55 Is

51.0
94.1
39.2
33.3
11 . 8
23.5
86.3
96.1
68.6

35.3
41.2
25.5
47.1
72.5
60.8
39.2
24.5
57.8

72.5
10.8
49.0
54.9
68.6
46.1
31.4
5.9
35.3

30.4
52.9
68.6
82.4
7.8
3.9
64.7
62.7
80.4

68.6
56.9
23.5
11.8
66.7
33.3
78.4
68.6
48.0

73.5
0.0
37.3
58.8
66.7
70.6
17.6
19.6
78.4

62.7
66.7
80.4
49.0
37.3
62.7
68.6
67.6
70.6

82.4
29.4
24.5
42.2
54.9
84.3
56.8
9.8
7 .8

13.7
38.2
82.4
94.1
86.3
13 .7
9.8
17.6
96.1

76.5
90.2
76.5
25,5
9.8
76.5
60.8
88.2
58.8

94.1
29.4
41.3
2 9 . 4i
5 3 . <)
96.1
49.(
60. i
35..

21.6
90.2
90.2
86.3
68.6
5.9
22.5
76.5
60.8

52.9
48.7
37.9
45.1
51.0
43.5
52.3
42.2
53.9

54.9
43.1
20.6
9.8
96.1
31.4
31.4
7.8
94.1

41.2
31.4
24.5
23.5
94.1
25 . 5
31 . 4
16.7
76.5

35.3
74.5
5 .9
17.6
80.4
39.2
43.1
33.3
58.8

35.3
70.6

33.3
84.3

41 . 2
76.5

25 .5
47.1

21.6
82.4

35.3
60.8

25.5
58.8

60.8
21.6
70.6

21.6
94.1
43.1
13.7
39.2
76.5

33.3
66.3
31.4
9.8
74.5
37.3

76.5
60.8
41 . 2
0.0
96.1
15.7

88.2
70.6
43.1
3.9
90 . 2
27.5

94.1
56 . 9
9.8
5 .9
98.0
31.4

98.0
39.2
47.1
3.9
98.0
3.9

94.1
60.8
56.9
0.0
100.0
7.8

92.2
37.3
41.2
0.0
98.0
35.3

47.1
80 . 4
54.9
76 .5

52.9
82 . 4
64.7
74.5

70.6
54.9
72.5
88,2

88.2
11.8
76.5
64.7
2 .0
52.9
78.4
66.7
10.8
2.0
76.5
74.5
76.5
46.1
2.0
76.5
11.8
98.0

90.2
15 .
86.,
43.

72 .5
25.5
74.5
31.4
0.0
70.6
62.7
51.0
9.8
21 . 6
70.6
68.6
47.1
25 .5
9.8
70.6
43.1
100.0

68.6
60.6
67.6
80.4
86.3
70.6
35.3
68.6
43.1
3.9
45.1
84.3
37.3
21.6
51.0
22.5
57.8
52.9
56.9
19.6
19.6
15.7
84.3

84.3
47 .1
51.0
84.3
84.3
80,4
45.1
68.6
37.3

78.4
35.3
82.4
86.3
82.4
70.6
43.1
94.1
37.3

86.3
25.5
80.4
61.8
90.2
62.7
82.4
79.4

94.1
45 .1
17.6
64.7
90.2
29.4
80.4
53.9

88.2
17.6
72.5
100.0
88.2
5 .9
62.7
60.8

96.1
60.8
88.2
64.7
6 2.7
12.7
86.3
54.9

90 . 2
70.6
54.9
72.5
96.1
5.9
88.2
41.2

82 . 4
46.1
74.5
66.7
92.2
7.8
74.5
62.7

47.1
82.4
35.3
7.8
58.8
29.4
53.9
60.8
49 .0
3.9
19.6
23.5
90.2

52.9
58.8
33.3
13.7
75.5
17.6
74.5
60.8
31.4
7.8
5.9
9.8
92.2

41.2
78.4
7.8
9.8
92.2
17.6
65.7
51 . 0
21.6
58.8
17 . 6
17.6
88.2

84.3
76.5
21.6
2.0
82.4
62.7
82 . 4
76 .5
25.5
23.5
9.8
72.5
94.1

70.6
45 .1
2.0
O.C
98. C
56.
6 8 . i>
15.
47.
96.
27..
82.4
80.4

51.0
41.2
96.1
15.7
3.9
92.2
37.3
70.6
51.0
35.3
96.1
11.8
71.6
84.3

25 .5
84.3
88.2
15.7
0.0
88.2
88.2
78.4
66.7
33.3
88.2
5.9
66.7
86.3

49.0
90.2
78.4
23.5
0.0
88.2
88.2
86.3
29.4
5.9
88.2
7.8
84.3
68.6

These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.




192
244
230
225
312
220
235
269
35 0
275
350
331
303
286
250
232
197
220
195
195
293
306
254
240
339
446
397
367
336
379
498
433
597
392

197
21 9
178
276
281
218
222
326
315
312
3 80
302
304
286
25 4
209
210
211
189
208
317
281
242
260
462
392
387
349
338
416
430
536
599
3 82

232
210
211
218
305
226
227
267
37 0
279
331
348
299
290
260
228
201
225
194
193
292
291
257
240
351
468
3 81
368
338
379
480
446
578
426

56,5
47.4
51.0
37.3
69.3
41.8
52.6
28.8
71.5
31.1
52l3
49.0
58.2
5 6.9
51,6
59.5
36.6
57.8
60.1
30.4
41 . 8

45.8
44.6
43.8
50.3
58.2
45.1
44.8
50.7
53.6
46 . 4

42.5
65.4
30.1
47.1
60.8
47.7
32.7
64.1
34.6
45,7

47.1
48.4
49.0
51 16
53.6
52.9
57.5
47.1
39.9
60.1

52.3
39.9
56.9
63 I 7
49.3
57.2
44.1
42.2
47.7
54.2

49.0

45 . 4
45.7
57.5
36.6
43.1
51.0
47.1
35.9
53.6
50.3
68.9

48.4
23.5
52,9
44.8
62.4
61.8
59.5
53.6
45.7
31.7
58.2

34.6
76.5
7.9
24I2
86.9
37.9
22.2
49.0
57.5
9.1
77.1
47.7
67.0
83.7
84.3
73.9
41.2
77.1
39.2
2.0
48.4
75.2
35.3
14.4
61.8
23.2
62.1
58.2
45.8
10.4
15.0
16.3
88.9

29.4
68.7
2.6
86 13
62.8
31,4
3.3
94.8
24.9
13.1
89.5
29.4
56.8
7 5.5
89.5
32.7
75 . 2
64.7
17.3
30.1
65.4
66.7
10.5
3.9
90.9
45.7
72.2
47.7
31.4
59.5
18.3
57.5
87.6

52.9
49.3
40.5
28.8
78.4
4 9 .0
51.6
35.6
62.8
49.0
43 . 8
69^3
56.9
47.7
54.3
59.8
34.6
57.5
49.0
40.8
58.2
61.4
5 8.2
37.9

64ll
69,9
69,3
47.1
44.1
59.5
44.1
75.2
51.6

48.5
49.5
38.4
53.3
59.3
46.6
41.4
51.6
52.2
41 . 8
51.3
48.5
54.3
56.7
49.3
51.1
52.1
47.6
44.0
54.4
55 !9
45 .2
33.8
56.9
50.0
53.2
51.2
50.4
48.1
46.9
49.8
58.2

STATE PROGRAMS—51 AREAS

52.9
60.8
37.3
3.9
98.0
41.2
23.5
3.9
96.1

72..
60.
21.(
2.0
69.6
70.6
56.9
27.5
2.0
81.4
31.4
96.1

255
202
225
191
313
224
229
243
416
249
311
358
296
288
261
228
188
242
194
187
306
287
269
235
299
503
386
369
326
370
576
400
567
443

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
58.8
68.6
62.7
19.6
41 . 2
72 .5
58.8
15.7
39.2
29.4

51.0
79.4
37 . 3
19.6
74.5
29 . 4
66.3
21.6
63,7
21.6
9.8
84.3
90.2
70.6
19,6
45.1
22.5
78.4
49.0
46.0
29.4
19.6
78.4

6ol

Annual

STATE PROGRAMS—51 AREAS

33.3
21 . 6
68.6
60.8
84.3
35.3
7.8
37.3
88.2
61.8
76.5
23.5
11 . 8
74.5
96.1
47.1
47.1
18.6
54.9
17.6
84.3
78.4
37.3

INDEX OF I N I T I A L CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE,

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
182
242
166
238
322
204
236
305
338
271
351
329
300
285
245
218
197
217
194
195
319
307
245
241
374
447
410
363
321
378
486
483
653

74,5
27.5
92.2
23.5
17 .6
29.4
56.9
58.8
76.5
52.9

DIFFUSION

II Q ' III Q

STATE PROGRAMS

49.7
45.1
27 ,5
12.4
96.1
32.7
28.8
9.5
88.9
56.9
72.6
64.0
79.7
81.7
83.6
17 .7
7 9.1
46.4
1.3
61.4
71.2
59.5
14.1
8.5
72.2
71 . 2
60.2
33.0
4.6
76 . 2
28.8
98.0

27.5
63.4
6 ,5
94! 8
45 . 8
48.4
1.3
98.7
15.7
8.5
69.6
59.2
72.5
68.0
83.7
8.6
83.0
52.9
2.0
41 . 8
71.9
87.6
18.3
1.3
89.5
71,2
78.4
49.0
24.8
90.8
8.5
74.2
79.7

35.3
63.4
11.1
54l4
72.9
37,6
13.9
63.0
46 . 7
13,2
52.2
65.1
76 .7
84.8
49.7
54.2
68.5
26.2
18.8
61 . 8
75.2
30.9
8.4
62.7
53.1
71.0
53.8
33.8
41 . 3
29.5
44.2
88.6
(JANUARY 1985)

97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.
23.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

1950...
1951 . . .
195 2 . , .

94.1
173.0
130.3

93.2
174.3
123.3

92.9
169.4
118.4

94.0
167.1
115.0

98.2
164.7
113.3

101.8
156.8
110.4

1 953 . , .
1954...
19SS..,
195 6 . . .
195 7 . . .
195 8 . . .
195 9 . . ,
1960...
1961...
196 2 . . .
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967.. .
196 8 . . .
196 9 . . .
1970...
1971...
197 2 . , .
197 3 , , .
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1961...
1982...
1983...
1984...

102 .2
91.6
101.7
112.2
109.0
92,8
99.2
105.3
96.9
102.5
95.1
98.1
110.2
120.0
106.4
99.4
103.0
118.9
105.9
110.7
139.3
215.9
180.1
183.6
210.2
219.7
258.3
316.2
291.6
263.4
232.1

101.5
91.0
103.3
lid.4
105.6
9S.0
9S.1
103.9
90.9
IOC.2
9<>.7
90.1
11C.3
12T.4
10/. 8
95.1
10r.9
il'1.5
10J.2
11S . 0
14V.5
23i!.0
18 .1
18t,,6
210.4
2U.9
273.5
32,1.5
2 80.2
26:1.0
24;.3

102,6
92.3
101.4
110.7
105.3
92.2
100.7
102.0
102.7
100.0
94.0
98.5
112.7
123.0
102.1
99.7
106.5
118,7
107.8
117.2
155 .3
237.2
182.3
193.2
222.6
219.8
288.5
316.9
289.8
254.5
248.8

97.8
95.7
103 ,0
111 .2
104.3
69.8
101.7
103,4
103 ,7
97.9
94.1
102.0
116.2
121 .0
99.7
97.9
108.9
118.2
110.2
119.5
158.2
238.4
186.4
200.9
221.9
220.3
294.5
301 . 9
293.0
247 , 4
253.2

97 .1
96.7
101.7
107.3
103.4
90.2
102.4
103.7
104.0
97.4
94.8
100.5
116.4
117.8
99.2
95 .7
110.0
117.5
108.6
124.3
162.9
226.2
184.2
202.7
218.1
217.8
2 93.8
278.5
288.9
245.5
251.5

96 .6
97.4
103.0
104.4
104.0
91.7
102.8
102.3
100.6
95.0
93,5
101.0
114.8
117.9
99.4
95.2
111 .2
114.6
106.1
123.8
170.1
227,5
173.2
205.2
206.4
222.1
2 93.9
267.5
282.9
232.2
250.5

967,
1950...
1951,.
1 95 2 , •
1953..
195 4 . .
1955..
195 6 . .
195 7 . .
195 8 . .
195 9 . .
I960..
1961..
196 2 . .
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
196 9 . .
1970.,
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976,.
1977..
1979!!
1980..
1981..
1982..
1983..
1984..

DIFFUSION

July

INDEX OF SPOT MARKET P R I C E S , RAW INDUSTRIAL
(1967-100)
112.6
139.0
108.9
95 . 9
96.3
106.8
104.9
103.4
94.3
102.8
101.2
101 . 3
93.8
93.8
102 .1
114.1
118.3
97 . 9
94.0
112.0
112.4
104.7
123.7
178.1
228.2
171.5
214.1
204.1
224.7
297.3
277.6
2 86.6
237 . 0
2S6.0

Aug.

Sept.

MATERIALS 1

Oct.

Nov.

Annual

II Q

158.8
133.5
105.7

164.0
133.3
104.8

93.4
172.2
124.0

98.0
162.9
112.9

127.7
135.2
108.7

157.0
134.1
105.4

119.0
151.1
112.t

99,5
110,3
111.9
94,5
101,4
105,5
98.1
98.5
96.0
96.9
112.7
115.0
105.5
98,7
99.9
115.1
108.8
106.9
131.6
192.4
196.4
179.8
201.0
203.6
254.8
304.0
304.7
270.5
230.4
279.8

99.3
113.5
112.0
93.9
99.9
104.4
96.4
100.6
95.4
97.3
112.1
116.6
105.4
99.7
100.3
116.7
106.4
106.8
134.8
208.9
183.4
180.6
203.2
210.9
251.8
309.6
298.4
264.2
227.4
282.4

91.6
102.1
111.1
106.6
92.7
99.7
103.7
99.5
100.9
94.6
98.2
111.1
121.8
104.4
99.4
105.1
119.0
107 .0
113.6
147.4
228.4
181.2
187.8
216,5
219.8
273.4
318.5
288.5
259.6
240.7

97 ,2
96.6
102.6
107.6
103.9
90.6
102.3
103.1
102.8
96,8
94.1
101 .2
115.8
118.9
99.4
96.3
110.0
116.6
108.3
122.5
163.7
230.7
181 .3
202.9
215.5
220.1
294.1
2 82.6
288.3
241.7
251 .7

94,9
96.5
108.2
107,5
101.9
95.4
103.6
101.2
102.1
93.8
93.8
105.1
114.4
112.7
97.7
94,7
114.5
111.4
106.1
124,4
184,7
222,4
178.4
210.0
203.2
232.1
297.6
289.3
286.4
237.4
263.0

92,0
99.3
110.9
111.0
95.0
100.1
105.1
97.9
100.3
95.3
96.7
112.1
115.4
105.6
98.6
99.1
115.6
108,2
107.0
131.5
196.5
194.7
180.8
201.9
206,5
252,0
307.1
301.3
270.6
231.1
278.5

96. C
105. <
109.3
101.
94,1
102.1
101.!
101.2
96.7
94.8
104.2
114.2
114.8
100.0
97.4
i l l .3
113.9
107 .1
123.0
173.1
219.0
180.4
200.7
210.4
231.0
293.0
298.0
263.4
242.5
258.5

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
127.7
134.1
108.4

142.7
132.6
108.f

148.1
135.5
105.7

95 .4
95.9
108.2
107,8
102,7
96.0
103.3
101.7
102.5
94.1
93.8
105.3
114.7
111,3
97.7
94.5
114.5
111 .2
106.1
124.6
189.8
224.2
179.6
209.6
202.7
232.6
298.1
292.1
289.5
236.2

93 .'.
97,3
109.6
109.E
99.«
95. <
104.7
100.8
102.5
93.6
93.7
107.8
114.3
108.5
97,4
95.7
116.9
110.5
107.5
124.8
186.3
214.7
184,2
206.2
202.9
239.1
297.3
298.3
283.0
239.0

90 . 4
99.0
108.8
109.0
96.5
98.9
105.4
99.3
101 .9
94.5
95.9
111.6
114.5
105.9
97.3
97,1
115.1
109.5
107.4
128.1
188.1
204.4
181.9
201.6
204.7
249.4
307.7
300.8
277.2
235,5

INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES RAW INDUSTRIALS - - 1 3
(PERCEN r RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPA NS)

INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
72.6
45.8
3 8.8

62.6
35.9
42.3
34.6
66.7
42.3
53.9
60.2
70.5
47.4
44.9
66.7
28.2

92.3
28.2
47.4
39.8
51.3
66.6
64.1
35.9
67.9
59.0
42.3
61.5
42.3
41.0
66.7
47.4
20.5
39.7
53.9
64.1
32.1
53.8
62.8
55.1
41.0
56.4
47,4
44.9

79.5
55.1
42.3
46.1
52.5
64.1
59.0
41,0
62.8
56.4
32.1
43.6
S6.4
66.7
69.2
55,1
42.3
57.7
69.2
59.0
39.7
52.5
64.1
62.8
24.4
48.7
59.0
48.4

62.8
50.6
40.1
57.4
56.4
43.9
56.4
47.4
S3.5
57.0
53.6
39,4
44.5
51.6
62.2
41.4
54.2
66.3
67.6
44 . 9
.49.0
59.9
49.0

7 1! 8
61.5
42.3
38.5
65.4

55 ! l
9.0
44.9
29.5
52.6

43^6
62.6
55.1
58.9
62.8

67.0
55.1
37.2
41.1
62.8

59^4
47.1
44.9
42.0
60.9

100.0
30.8
23.1
46.2

69.2
70.5
24.3
18.0

94.9
25.7
25.7
19.2

100.0
18.0
35.9
33.4

100.0
23.1
37.2
41.1

69.2
42.3
19.2
69.2
46.2
S3.8
36.5
65.4
80.8
80.8
50.0
3.6
42.3
84 .6
69,2
46.2
84.6
92.3
76.9
19.2
65.4
69.2
75.0
92.3
58.3
65.4
15.4
65.4
73.1

65.4
50.0
46.2
35 . 9
66.6
51 .3
58.9
32.1
67.9
71.8
71 . 8
42.3
14.1
41.0
76.9
55 .1
46.2
87.2
94.9
69.2
17.9
70.5
52.6
63,9
93.6
54.0
41.1
24.4
66.7

73.1
50.0
25 .7
61.5
62.8
38.5
64.1
15.4
60.2
75,6
47.4
25.6
14.1
50.0
79.5
30.8
59.0
85.9
64.6
51.3
50.0
69.2
47.5
78.2
85.7
47.5
48.7
21.6
88.5

82.0
55.1
18,0
79.5
61.5
29.5
57.7
34.6
55.1
74.3
55.1
8.9
34.6
68.0
75.6
23.1
51.3
64.1
85.9
28,2
42.3
65.4
38.9
89.8
63.9
42.3
42.3
21.8
60.8

75,6
47.4
21.8
73.1
48.7
46.2
48.7
50.0
67.9
75.6
55.1
3.8
39.8
89.7
71.8
35.9
74.3
82.0
84.6
20.5
5 7.7
73.1
61.1
89.8
61.1
64.1
20.5
57.7
78.2

91.0
34.
30.
27,
59.
74,
50.
27.
62.
59.
41 .
57.
33.
62 ,
74,
57.
20,
25,
62.
75.
36.
57.
79.
87.
42,
42.
69.
50.
80.
76.
52.
38.
31,
78.

2fi . 9
6:* . 4

5 7.7
34.6

61 .5
46.2

73.1
30.8

76.9
30.8

88.5
11,5

96.2
26.9

92 . 3
46.2

73.1
61.5

84.6
50,0

80.8
53.8

48.7
64.1

26.9
46.2
76.9
46.2
34.6
46.2
42.3
65,4
38.5
69.2

4(>.2
34,6
6^.4
53.0
33.8
38.5
53.0
43.2
7 3.1
34,6

46.2
73.1
42,3
50.0
46.2
38.5
73.1
42.3
80.8
46.2

3.8
73.1
65.4
42.3
46.2
38.5
50.0
50.0
69.2
38.5

57.7
46,2
38.5
23.1
42.3
61 .5
57.7
42.3
57.7
53.8

46.2
69.2
73.1
26.9
50.0
73.1
57.7
57.7
42.3
30.8

42.3
30.8
76.9
46.2
38,5
92.3
53.8
46.2
53.8
30.8
34.6

46.2
42.3
53.8
73.1
42.3
76.9
57.7
46.2
76.9
46.2
42.3

30.8
80.8
69.2
73.1
26.9
34.6
65.4
34.6
53.8
50.0
46.2

26.9
53.8
36.5
61.5
34.6
69.2
53.8
23.1
42.3
57.7
73.1

61.5
50,0
84.6
65.4
38.5
88.5
61.5
46.2
26.9
76.9
65.4

50.0
53.8
69.2
50.0
50.0
30.8
53.8
26.9
61.5
34.6
61.5

39.8
51.3
61.5
48.7
37.2
41.1
55.1
51,3
64.1
50.0
53.8

70.5
35.9
3 8.5
35.9
62.8
59.0
30.8
46.2
57,7
55 .1
50.0
56.4
41.0
52.6

57,7
26,9
69.2
53,8
50,0
50,0
57,7
34.6
76.9
84.6
73.1
38,5
65.4
69,2

50.0
53.0
5(3,0
34,6
38.5
7 1.1
46.2
61,5
73.1
92.3
73.1
69.2
61.5
7 3.1

46.2
73.1
57.7
26.9
57.7
53.8
50.0
73.1
84.6
69.2
53.8
30.8
73.1
80.8

69.2
84.6
50.0
34.6
34.6
80.8
50.0
76.9
69.2
65.4
61.5
57.7
65.4
34.6

57.7
23.1
34.6
26.9
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
73.1
34.6
30.8
65.4
34.6

46.2
34.6
57.7
42.3
69.2
30.8
46.2
53.8
73.1
46.2
46,2
69.2
15.4

38.5
34.6
26.9
30.8
73.1
30.8
46.2
61.5
69.2
38,5
57.7
73.1
34.6

50.0
19.2
50.0
65.4
69.2
34.6
61.5
69.2
61.5
34.6
53.8
34.6
50.0

53.8
7.7
42.3
65.4
50.0
30.8
53.8
57.7
34.6
50.0
57.7
34.6
50.0

61.5
26.9
53,8
76.9
46.2
34.6
50.0
61.5
42.3
26.9
34.6
50.0
50.0

42.3
57.7
57,7
76.9
65.4
42.3
53.8
53.8
73.1
23.1
53.8
61.5
37.5

61.5
42.3
61.5
53.8
65.4
42.3
53.8
76.9
73.1
23.1
57.7
65.4
57.7

50.0
59.0
38.4
48.7
59.0
51.3
56,4
78.2
82.0
66.7
46.2
66.7
74.4

6U5
50.0
30.8
42.3
61.5

7 6 *9
73.1
30.8
34.6
76.9

76^9
61.5
65.4
38.5
57.7

69.2
U .5
69.2
30.8
65.4

42.3
15.4
26.9
34.6
46.2

53.8
0.0
38.5
23.1
46.2

46.2
53.8
61.5
61.5
57.7

30.8
76.9
61.5
53.8
73.1

53*8
57.7
42.3
61.5
57,7

62^
65.4
38.5
46,2
69.2

6L5
53.6
26.9
30.6
76.9

76*9
46.2
46.2
46.2
42.3

54|s

"~®

DIFFUSION INDEX OF SP OT MARKET PRICES RAW INI
(PERCENT RISING OVER 9-H ONTH SPANS)

1950...
1951,.
195 2 , .
195 3 . .

61.5
92.3
26.9
23.1

61.5
76.9
19.2
15.4

64.6
42.3
26.9
15.4

92.3
30.8
23.1
15.4

92.3
23.1
23,1
15.4

100.0
23.1
30.8
26.9

100.0
23 .1
30.8
30.8

100.0
15.4
34.6
30.8

100,0
15.4
42.3
38,5

100.0
15.4
46.2
38.5

1955!!
1956..
195 7 . .
1 95 8 . .
195 9 . ,
I960,.
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
196 8 . .
196 9 . .
1970.,
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
197 5 . .
1976..
197 7 . .
1976.,
1979..
I960..
1981..
1982..
1983..
1984..

53.8
53.6
46.2
26.9
69.2
53.8
61.5
30.8
65.4
76.9
73.1
53.8
7.7
38.5
76.9
69.2
46.2
84.6
100.0
69,2
19.2
65,4
57.7
66.7
96.2
58.3
38.5
15.4
80.6

69.2
46,2
46.2
34.6
69.2
53.8
61.5
34.6
69.2
76.9
60.8
38.5
19.2
53.8
76.9
61.5
46.2
84.6
92.3
76.9
15.4
65.4
50.0
66.7
D6.2
50.0
38,5
30.8
61.5

73.1
50.0
46.2
46.2
61.5
46.2
53.8
30.8
69.2
61.5
61.5
34.6
15.4
30.8
76.9
34.6
46.2
92.3
92.3
61.5
19.2
80.8
50.0
58.3
88.5
53.8
46.2
26,9
57.7

69.2
46.2
30.8
65.4
53.8
30.8
53.8
15.4
61.5

76.9
46.2
23.1
50.0
57,7
38.5
69.2
11.5
65.4

73.1
57.7
23.1
69.2
76.9
46.2
69.2
19.2

76.9
53,8
15.4
84.6
61,5
34.6
50 .0
30.8

84.6
57.7
15,4
76.9
61.5
23.1
53.8
38.5

84.6
53,8
23.1
76.9
61.5
30.8
69.2
34.6

42.3
38.5
11.5
46.2
76.9
30.8
46.2
92.3
92.3
61,5
50.0
69.2
50.0
69.2
80.8
50.0
46.2
26.9
80 . 8

50.0
26.9
19.2
42.3
76.9
26.9
61.5
84.6
80.8
46.2
42.3
73.1
46.2
80.8
84.6
46.2
46.2
19.2
96.2

50.0
11.5
11.5
61.5
84.6
34.6
69.2
80.8
80.8
46.2
57.7
65.4
46.2
84.6
91.7
46.2
53.8
19.2
88.5

57.7
11.5
34.6
65.4
80.8
23.1
53.8
69.2
80.6
38.5
34.6
57.7
45.8
88.5
66.7
46.2
61.5
26.9
88.5

57.7
11 .5
30.8
57.7
76,9
19.2
53.8
61.5
88.5
23.1
50.0
61.5
29.2
92.3
66.7
42.3
42.3
15.4
80.6

50.0
3.8
38.5
80.6
69.2
26.9
46.2
61.5
86.5
23.1
42.3
76.9
41.7
88.5
58.3
38.5
23.1
23.1
73.1

64.6
42.3
23.1
76.9
53.8
38.5
53.8
34.6
53.8
69.2
57.7
3.8
38.5
92.3
69.2
23.1
53.8
76.9
92.3
23.1
42,3
76.9
45.8
88.5
66.7
61.5
23.1
50.0
80.8

100.0
23.1
42.3
38.5
73.1
57.7
23.1
73.1
46.2
46.2
53.8
50.C
69.=
76.*
57.1
3. I
38.5
92.:
76.
38.5
84. e
76.< >
84.«
19.3
65.*! t
73.1
62.5
88.5
58.:
65.' t
23.]
57.*
80. J

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
'-For data from June 1981 to the present, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced
without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.




IV Q

IQ

61,5
92.3

967,

III Q

Dec.

®

(JANUARY 198S)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

IV Q

I Q

Annual

Year

IV Q

IQ

15. PROFITS (AFTER TAXES) PER DOLLAR OF SALES,
ALL MANUFACTURING CORPORATIONS!
(CENTS)
1950
1951
1952
195 3 . . . . .
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

5.6
5 .7
4.3
4.4
4.3
5.2
5.4
5,3
3.6
5.0
5.0
3.8
4.6
4.4
5.1
5.6
5 .a
5.0
5.1
5 .1
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.7
5.9
3.9
5,5
5.3
5.0
5.8
5,5
4.9
3,9
3.3

6.7
5.1
4.1
4.3
4.6
5.4
5.4
4.9
3.7
5.3
4.4
4.2
4.4
4.7
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.2
4,2
4.2
4.7
5.6
4.4
5.5
5.3
5.4
5,7
4.5
5.0
3.6
4.0

6.9
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
5.5
5.0
4,7
4.4
4.6
4,3
4.4
4.5
4.7
5.3
5.6
5.6
4.9
5.1
4.8
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.7
5.7
4.9
5.3
5.0
5.5
5.8
4.6
4.8
3.5
4.2

E DEFLATOR TO UNIT LABOR COST,
ECTOR 2
(INDEX: 1977-100)
6.3
4.4
4.4
4 .0
4.7
5.6
5.1
4.3
4.8
4.4
3.9
4.7
4.7
5.0
5.3
5
5
5
5
4
3.6
4.1
4.5
5.7
4.9
5.2
5.1
5.4
5 ,7
5.4
4,8
4.4

6.4
4.8
4.3
4.3
4.5
5.4
5.2
4.8
4.1
4.8
4.4
4.3
4.6
4.7
5.2
5.6
5.6
5.0
5.1
4.8
4.0
4,1
4.3
5.0
5.5
4.6
5.4
5.2
5.4
5.7
4.8
4.8
3.A
4.0

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR, GROSS NONFARM BUSINESS PRODUCT3
(INDEX:
1 977-1OO)
1950
1951
1952
1953
195 4
195 5
195 6
1957.
195 8
195 9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965.
1966
1967
196 8
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
358.
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
195 5
195 6
195 7
195 8
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963.....
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

39.2
42.5
43.3
44.3
44.7
45.5
46.9
48.9
49.5
50.4
51.5
51.7
52.4
53.2
53.7
54.6
55.5
57.7,
59.5
62.1
65.1
68.2
70.8
72 .6
77 .6
88.2
93.0
97.6
103.4
112.7
123,2
136.4
146.5
151.9

3 9.5
42.7
43.2
44.4
45.0
45.7
47.2
49.1
49.5
50.8
51.5
51.9
52.6
53.2
53.8
54.6
56.
57.
60.
62.9
66.1
69.1
71.1
73.4
80.5
89.1
93.6
99.3
106.0
115.4
127 . 2
138.7
148.6
152.7

40.5
42.8
43.4
44.6
44.9
46.1
47,8
49.5
49.7
51.0
51.7
52.1
52.7
53.3
54.1
55.0
56.4
58.3
60.6
63.7
66.4
69.7
71.3
74.3
82.9
90.5
95.0
100.9
108.3
117.9
129.3
142 . 3
149.3
153.8

41.2
43.1
44 .2
44.3
45.3
46.6
48.3
49.5
50 . 0
51.2
51.7
52.0
53.0
53.6
54.1
55.0
57.2
58.8
61.4
64.4
67.6
70.1
72 .1
76.0
85.5
92.1
96.6
102.1
110.5
119.8
132.5
145 .1
150.2
155.2

56.1
56.4
58.6
59.6
59.9
62.9
63.0
63.8
65.2
68.4
68,2
70.1
72.0
74.9
77.9
80.0
82.2
83.9
86
86

86
69
92

95
93
94
98.0
99.9
100.8
99.1
97,7
99.7
99.4
103.6

56.8
5 7.8
58.6
59.8
60.8
63.2
63.0
64.1
65.9
67.3
68.1
70.7
73.0
75.8
78.7
80.7
82.6
84.4
87.2
86.4
88.0
90.4
93.6
95.0
92.4
96.3
98.2
100.6
100.6
98.6
98.4
100.3
100.3
104.1

57.1
58,3
58.9
59.6
61.3
62 . 8
63.3
64.4
67.1
67.6
68.1
71.8
73.9
76.0
78.8
82.0
82.9
85.1
87.3
86.2
87.1
90.4
94.7
94.9
92.3
95
97.9
100.4
100.7
98.5
98.6
99.2
100.5
104.4

1950...
1951...
195 2 . . .
195 3 . . .
1954...
1955...
195 6 . . .
195 7 . . .
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976., .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...

101.6
103 .9
102 .4
100.9
98.5
101.8
100.4
100.0
97.8
101.0
100.0
97 .7
100.0
100.4
101 . 7
102 . 8
103.2
101.8
102 .1
101.0
97.5
99.1
99.2
99.6
96 .6
97.2
100.1
99.6
98.4
98.3
96.6
98.1
96.8
96.4

(INDEX:
40.1
42.8
43.5
44.4
45.0
46.0
47.6
49.2
49.7
50.8
51.6
51.9
52.7
53.3
53.9
54.8
56.3
58.1
60.4
63.3
66.3
69.3
71 . 3
74.1
81.6
90.0
94.6
100,0
107 . 0
116.4
128.0
140.6
148.6
153.4

1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1966.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
370.

56.3
57.3
58.6
59.6
60.4
62.8
62.9
64.0
65.5
67.7
68.3
70.3
72.8
75.2
78.1
80.5
62.5
84.1
86.8
86.6
86.8
89.7
93.0
95.3
92.9
94.8
97.8
100.0
100.6
99.0
98.3
99.8
100.0
103.4

1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.

38.6
40.9
42.3
43.9
45.4
44,7
46 .7
48.9
50.6
49.9
51 .5
52.9
52.4
53,0
52.8
53.1
53.6
56,7
58.3
61.5
66.8
68.8
71 .4
72.9
80.3
90.7
92.9
98.0
105 .1
114.7
127.5
139.1
151.4
157.6

99.r

102
99.8
99.4
98.6
101.8
98.7
98.9
99
101
101
102.6
102.
101.
102.
100.3
98.4
99.1
99.4
98.5
96.8
98.9
99.6
100.2
99.6
97.9
96.2
97.7
96.4
97.9

104 .7
103 .1
101.2
100.2
99.8
102.2
99.4
99.6
99.0
100.0
98.5
99.6
100.2
101.5
101.9
103,0
101.8
102.1
102.0
99.5
98.4
99.7
99.4
97.6
96.3
100.4
99.2
100 .6
99,4
97,2
96.2
98.6
96.0
98.7

104.3
103.4
101.4
98.2
100.7
101 .7
99.6
99.0
100.4
99.8
97.7
100.0
101 .0
101 .1
101.3
103.4
102 . 3
102 .4
101.3
98.6
98.1
99.7
100.0
97.8
96.6
99.9
98. 9
99.6
99,3
96.5
96.6
97.7
95.6
98.8

103.3
103.2
101.7
100.0
99.5
102 .0
99.8
99.5
99.0
100.6
98.7
99.0
100.1
101.1
101 .6
103.0
102,4
102.0
101.9
99.8
98.1
99.4
99.5
98.4
96.6
99.1
99.4
100.0
99.2
97.5
96.4
98.0
96.2
98.0

38.7
41.5
42.9
44.5
45.0
45.1
48.1
49.7
50.2
51.0
52.5
52.3
52.6
52.5
53.1
53.4
55.4
57.1
59.
64.0
67.5
69.9
71 . 7
76.1
86.1
90.1
95.8
100.3
108.9
121.3
134.4
144.3
155 ,6
155.9

39.5
41 .7
43.6
45 .1
45 . 0
45.8
48.5
50 .0
49.8
51.3
52 . 9
52.0
52.5
53.0
53.4
53.2
55.9
57.4
60.6
65.3
68.9
70.3
72 .1
77.7
88.5
92.2
97.7
102.5
111.3
124.1
137.2
148.5
157.1
157.1

38.8
41.5
42.8
44.4
45.2
45.1
47.6
49.5
50.2
50.5
52.3
52.4
52.6
52.8
53.0
53.2
55.0
57.0
59.3
63.4
67.6
69.7
71.7
75.3
84.5
90.8
95,1
100.0
107.9
119.5
132.8
143.4
154.6
156.6

1977=100)
38.5
41.8
42.4
44.2
45 . 4
44.7
47 . 3
49.4
50.2
49.9
52.2
52.5
53.0
52.5
52,9
53.2
55.0
56.7
58.9
62.7
67.2
69.7
71.5
74.5
83.2
90.1
94.0
99.1
106.4
117.9
132.2
141.9
154.2
155.9

INDEX OF OUTPUT PER HOUR, ALL PERSONS, PRIVATE
BUSINESS SECTOR11
(1977-100)
49.3
50.8
52.6
54.6
55.0
58.0
58.6
60.1
61.1
64.3
66 .0
65.5
69.1
71 .4
75.0
77.4
80.5
81,3
84.5
85.4
85.0
88.8
91.0
95.7
92.8
92.2
97.2
99 .4
100.5
100 ,2
99.1
100.5
100.9
102 .2

'This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user.
This series contains revisions
beginning with 1956. 3This series contains revisions beginning with 1981. •'This series contains revisions beginning
with 1948,




102.6
102 .2
101.9
100.5

UNIT

INDEX OF OUTPUT PER HOUR, ALL PERSONS, HONFARM
BUSINESS SECTOR*
(1977-100)
55.1
56.5
58.2
59.2
59.6
62.3
62.6
63 .7
64.2
67 . 6
68.7
68.7
72.5
74.1
77 . 2
79.4
82.4
82.
86.
87.
85.
88.
91.4
96.1
93.8
92.4
97.1
99 . 3
100.4
100.1
98.6
99.9
99.8
101 . 6

Annual

50.1
51.2
53.6
55.3
55.5
58.6
58.7
60.4
61.7
64.5
65.1
67.4
69.3
72.2
75.2
77.6
80.4
82.6
85.1
85.6
85.8
88.6
92.2
94.8
92.8
94.7
9 7.6
99.6
100.7
99.5
98.4
100.6
100.3
103.6

50.9
52.6
53.8
55.5
56.5
58.5
58.8
60.3
62.6
63.9
64.9
67.8
70.3
73 . 2
76 . 1
78.7
80.9
82.9
85.8
85 .5
87.3
89.9
92 .6
94.3
92.3
96 .1
97.9
100.9
100.6
99.0
98.8
101.
100.
104.3

51.3
52.7
54.0
55.5
57.3
58.3
59.7
60.8
63.8
64.4
64.9
68. 9
71 . 2
73 .5
76.5
79.7
81.2
83.6
85.9
85.4
86.9
90.0
94.0
94.6
92.1
95.7
96.0
100.5
100.7
98.8
99.0
100.3
101.6
104.7-

50.4
51.8
53.5
55.2
56.1
58.3
58.9
60.4
62.3
64,3
65.2
67.4
69.9
72.5
75.6
78.3
80.8
82.6
85,3
85.5
86.2
89.3
92.4
94.8
92.5
94.6
97.6
100.0
100.5
99.3
98.8
100.7
100.9
103.7

(JANUARY 1985}

99

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

II Q

IQ

IV Q

III Q

Annual

37 OC. CHANG 15 *'ROM PRICED I Nti PERIOD IN OUTPUT PER HOUR,
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR'
1950

18.3

6.8

6.5

1 95 2
1 95 3
1 95 4
1 955 . , . ,
1 95 6
1 95 7
195 e
\ 959
1960
....
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969..
I 970
1971
1972
1 973
1974
. .
1975
1976
1977
1978,,,..
I 97 9
1 980,
i98i!!!'.!
1982
1 983
1984

-0.7

7.3
5 .4
3.8
4 .3
0.3
1.6
4*1
0,9
-5 .0
12.0
1,0
4.8
1 .4
1.3
-0.8
6.4
2.9
0. 9
4.1
-0.7
5.2
- 3 .5
0.1
11.3
1.6
0.8
1.1
- 2 .6
-2 . 8
0.6
-2.3
5 .9

2 ,0
1,2
7.7
-0 .4
0.5
-0.2
6.0
-3 .3
- 1 .7
2 .4
6.1
5.2
4.7
5.8
2.4
1.4
3 .4
- 0 .4
7 .0
6.2
1.9
-2.1
- 2 .4
6 .0
1.3
5 ,4
-0.7
-2.1
1.5
3*6
2.4
2 .8

971.
ACTl) AL 4 ®
195 0
1951...
195 2 . . .
1953...
1954...
195 5 . . .
195 6 . . .
195 7 . . .
195 8 . . .
1959.,.
I960.,.
1961...
1962...
1963,..
1964.. .
1965.. .
1966...
1967...
1968...
196 9 . . .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982,..
1983...
1984.,.
972.

>

-3. 7
4 .9
2 ,4
2,8
1 .7
3 .4
9.9
3,5
0.9
1.2
8.2
4.8
4.5
0.5
4,2
-1.0
9.0
4 . ii
7 .ft
_ 7 , ;|
0 . ,'t
6 . 'J
5 ,$
-0.2
-1.8
1.3

s!o

2.5
2 .1

PERCENT
. CHANGE2

2.9
1,2
0 .9
0 .3
s i
.5
) .7
r.6
3.2
0,6
7 .0
5.1
1.9
1.9
4.9
1.8
3.6
0.4
! .0
3.4
1.0
.1
_ D.8
_ .%
0 .3
- 1 .5
0.4
-0.7
0. 8
-4.7
2.7
1 .4

7.9
2 .8
3.2
3. 2
1.6
4.0
1.0
2 .5
3.1
3 .2
1 .5
3 .3
3.8
3.7
4.3
3.5
3 .1
2.3
3 .3
0,2
0, 8
3.6
3.5
2.6
- 2 .4
2 .2
3 .3
2 .4
0.5
-1.2
-0.5
M
0,2
2 .7

76
78
62
76
54
84
76
67
50
84
6!i
62
77
74
84
84
88
72
78
80
64
70
84
90
82
54
80
B3
86
HI
63
10
SO
M

D I F F U S I O N INDEX OF NET PROFITS

80
68
70
72
56
82
77
62
79
60
72
76
76
83
88
84
69
79
76
60
70
86
88
74
64
78
82
86
73
60
62
52
78

54
82
38
60
49
71
72
59
38
74
68
48
73
64
74
78
82
65
70
70
61
63
74
78
74
52
76
71
73
78
62
60
53
62

62
69
45
64
52
74
70
58
42
78
58
52
72
68
78
80
82
65
73
74
56
64
76
79
76
53
74
74
76
74
54
66
52
66

66
68

78
76

*58
66
84
72
53
68
74
52
75
72
74
62
86
82
72
80
72
55
74
84
86
59
71
78
82
86
78
60
62
56
84

71
56
82
77
56
80
63
65
76
74
82
85
86
71
79
77
61
70
84
68
75
60
79
82
85
79
64
66
52
76

MFG. AND TRADE—
78
57
48
56
52
76
69
*51
76
52
62
70
70
79
80
78
64
72
68
55
66
79
76
71
58
72
74
78
70
57
60
52
71

A

1H Q

II Q

81
50

69
64

7.9
3 .2
2 .4
3.0
I .9
3.5
0.4
2.7
3.8
2.1
1 .5
4.5
3.7
4.0
4.0
3.4
2.7
2.5
3 .5
-0 .4
2.1
3.0
3 ,0
1.8
-2 .2
4.1
1 .9
3 .1
-0.3
-1.5
-0.2
2.7
-0.6
3 .4

1950
1 951
...
1 952
1 953
195 4
1955
1956
1 957
195 8
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1 969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 . . . . .
1977
1978
1 97 9
1980
....
1981
1982
1983
1984

54
62
78
66
46
60
72
50
68
68
70
79
83
76
69
74
66
56
70
80
76
63
66
74
76
78
72
56
60
54
74

*5*8
54
75
69
48
75
57
58
71
66
78
80
80
66
72
70
57
66
77
77
71
57
74
74
76
74
57
62
53
68

A N T I C I P A T E D 4 <§)

100

3.1
3.5
3 .7
0 .7
5 .4
1.2
2,5
1 .6
5.3
2.6
-0.7
5.5
3.3
5.0
3,2
4.1
0.9
3.9
1.1
-0 .4
4.4
2.5
5 .1
-3.0
-0,7
5 .5
2.3
1.1
-0.3
-1 .0
1.3
0,5
1.2
3 .5

2,0
4 .7
3,3
0.4
5.5
0.2
2.9
2.2
4 ,4
1.0
3.5
2.8
4.3
4.1
3.2
3.6
2.7
3.0
0.6
0.3
3.2
4.0
2.9
-2.1
2.0
3.1
2.0
1 .1
-1.2
-1 .1
2 .2
-0.3
3.3
3.3

HANUFACTU RING-SPANS)
65
82
70
74
64
72
79
76
80
77
67
83
69
80
84
86
82
80
82
76
76
82
88
86
72
82
80
82
80
66
74
60
66

71
82
72

75
83
66

58
62
80
76
58
82
81
67
82
76
82
86
88
82
63
85
71
78
86
90
80
59
84
86
83
34
75
74
68
77

63
80
76
68
61
62
76
77
82
76
84
84
88
80
82
83
74
85
88
86
85
70
88
88
88
80
57
76
64
82

84
72
72
72
65
85
75
71
72
82
70
76
74
78
83
85
84
81
61
80
74
81
68
87
80
73
86
84
86
72
62
76
60
85

50
74
54
56
56
66
75
68
72
73
60
78
68
77
60
84
75
74
78
70
71
76
82
80
68
76
78
79
78
66
70
61
64

60
72
50

67
74
48

*58
74
72
69
52
77
75
64
79
72
80
84
86
74
80
79
66
74
82
65
74
58
80
80
82
82
73
69
66
73

5*8
76
71
63
54
78
74
74
78
72
82
83
84
76
78
77
70
80
84
84
79
66
84
84
84
80
59
74
66
80

5.4
3.6
2.9
1.8
4.0
1.7
2.0
2.1
4.6
1.7
1.3
4.6
3.6
4.1
3.6
3.6
2.0
3.1
2.0
-0.3
2.9
3.3
3,8
-0.7
-0.9
4.2
2.2
2 ,0
-0.4
-1 .3
0 ,9
1.0
1.3
3 .3

AVERAGE
74
80
70
62
60
78
73
. . .
82
76
72
60
75
82
85
86
81
62
82
74
60
66
68
83
68
85
84
85
79
65
75
63
78

AVERAGE

(PEE CENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTBR SPANS)

'This series contains revisions beginning with 1970, 2Year-to-year changes are computed from annual data. 3 T M s series contains
revisions beginning with 1969. Changes are centered on the 3d quarter of the span. Annual figures are averages of the centered
changes. 4 This scries contains no revisions but 1s reprinted for the convenience of the user. This is a copyrighted series used
by permission; 1t nay not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.




AVERAGE

(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
8.5
2.8
2.3
2 .9
3.2
1.8
2.4
1.9
4.8
1.0
0.8
6.2
3.3
3.3
4.0
4.2
1. 9
2.9
2.7
-0 .6
1.8
3.6
4 .4
0.6
-2.6
4.0
2.4
2 .6
0.1
-1 .8
0.2
1.3
1.3
3.1

D

195 0
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
195 6 . . .
195 7 . . .
195 8 . . .
195 9 . . .
1960...
1961,..
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967.. .
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979.,.
1980,..
1981,..
1982...
1983...
1984...

1950...
1951...
195 2 . . .
195 3 , . .
1954...
1955., .
1956...
195 7 . . .
195 8 . . .
195 9 . . .
1960...
1961.,.
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...

Annual

IV Q

A fV A

3
PRIVATE B U S I N E S S SECTOR

971.

AVERAGE
1950...
1951...
195 2 . . .
195 3 . . .
195 4 . . .
195 5 . . .
195 6 . . .
195 7 . . .
1958...
195 9 . . .
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973.,.
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978.,.
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...

*i 1 f\ f

AVERAGE

(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
68
69
60
77
50
76
ft 2
65
«
03
:M
32
31
71
SO
83
88
71
78
81
66
66
82
88
84
50
80
80
83
85
74
66
52
66

1Q

Year

78
58
49
64
60
78
70
64
62
79
66
73
71
76
81
84
62
76
73
76
66
78
83
80
77
67
82
82
83
70
61
72
60
81

64
70
50
*58
74
72
66
*76
72
68
76
72
80
83
64
75
76
78
68
76
81
83
78
65
80
61
62
78
65
71
63
74

(JANUARY 1985)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
973.

IQ

IV Q

III Q

II Q

DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET SAL E S ,

Annual

Year

MFG. AND TRADE—

973 .

IQ

1II Q

IQ

DIFFUSION INDEX OF SET

IV Q

Annual

SALES, MFG. AN! TRADE--

AVERAGE
1950
1951
195 2
1953
1954
1955
1956
195 7
195 8
195 9
I960
1961
1962
1 963
1 964
1 965
1966
1 967
1968
...
1 969
1 970
1971 . . . .
1 972
1973
.
1974
1975
1976
1977
1 978
1979 . . . .
1980... .
1 981
1982
1 983
1984
974.

60
90
54
72
50
76
80
64
40
82
72
49
80
71
80
82
88
71
79
80
70
70
82
86
82
57
82
80
84
87
73
70
63
66

•

DIFFUSION INDEX OF NO.

69
79
60
74
50
84
78
67
46
87
63
58
78
74
83
84
88
70
82
84
66
72
82
69
84
58
81
81
86
84
62
74
58
74

88
67
67
71
53
82
78
58
82
58
70
78
76
84
87
85
72
82
78
64
74
85
86
80
66
80
84
88
82
68
71
57
74

88
68

76
76

61
64
84
74
52
68
78
52
72
76
75
84
86
82
74
84
76
62
76
86
85
70
70
80
85
88
82
66
68
60
80

70
54
82
78
53
82
61
62
78
74
83
85
86
72
82
80
66
73
84
86
79
63
81
82
86
84
67
71
60
74

OF EMPLOYEES, MFG. AMD TRADE—
AVERAGE

50
64
55
56
48
54
58
54
40
56
56
47
56
54
55
60
65
58
57
59
54
48
56
63
58
44
57
60
62
62
58
5i
48
48

1950 . . . .
1951
195 2
1953
1954
195 5
195 6
195 7
1958
1959
1960
1 961
1 962
1963
1964
1965
1 966
1 967
196 8
1969
1970
1 971
1972
1973 . . . .
1974
1 975
1 976
1977
197 8 .
1 979 .
1 980
1981
1982
1983 . . . .
1984

56
62
56
58
46
56
57
53
44
60
54
50
55
56
58
61
66
58
60
60
54
52
58
62
59
44
58
59
64
60
54
53
46
54

64
58
58
58
49
58
58
48
59
52
54
56
55
59
64
63
58
56
58
51
53
62
60
56
48
58
61
64
60
53
52
46
58

64
58

58
60

51
52
60
57
49
49
58
50
53
55
56
60
64
62
58
60
58
50
55
60
60
49
52
58
62
63
58
51
52
46
61

56
49
57
58
45
58
53
51
56
55
58
62
64
58
59
59
52
52
59
61
56
47
58
60
63
60
54
52
46
55

AVERAGE

<g|

48
84
54
53
51
54
68
63
43
62
66
50
64
60
6^
8
4
A
fl
66
62
6
7
7
58
6
7
7
8
6
6
5
54

53
80
48
60
48
62
68
59
46
6g
60
50
62
62
66
71
74
66
68
70
61
62
66
76
79
52
65
72
76
76
61
64
52
59

68
72
50
58
47
62
68
48
64
56
56
62
62
67
72
73
65
70
70
62
62
72
75
78
56
68
74
76
73
64
62
52
62

84
80
68
86
72
82
85
88
80
82
86
74
78
83
88
66
75
82
82
86
85
72
78
65
68

1 950 . .
1951
1952
195 3
1 954. .
1955
1956 . ,
1957
1958
1 95 9
1960
1961
1 962
1963
1 964
1965 . .
1966 .
1 967
1 968
1969
1970
1971..
1972
1973
1974
1975 . .
1976 , .
1977
1978
1979..
1980. .
1 981
1982..
1983..
1984
DIF.

50
62
54
57
53
54
57
56
.

•

54
56
52
56
54
55
56
62
60
60
60
58
55
58
60
61
53
56
59
59
60
54
56
50
50

7g
58

51
82
81
79
5g
87
84
66
84
82
86
87
90
82
86
88
73
80
88
90
78
62
84
86
87
88
80
76
70
78

82
68

71

62
84
79

74
63
86
78

61
86
81
82
86
78
86
88
90
82
86
86
78
86
90
90
86
73
90
90
92
84
63
80
72
84

72
86
72
82
78
80
86
89
86
82
84
83
76
84
88
88
82
74
87
86
90
78
67
80
65
86

52
62
56

54
62
54

46
56
56
56
50
56
56
52
56
55
56
58
63
60
60
60
56
58
60
63
56
48
60
60
60
60
56
54
51
56

50
56
56
53
50
56
56
54
57
54
57
59
63
60
58
60
56
58
61
62
60
54
62
61
62
58
48
56
51
59

59
57
56
54
48
58
56
54
51
57
52
54
54
55
58
59
62
60
60=
59
54
56
60
60
58
54
60
59
62
56
50
55
48
60

62
74

52
50
65
65
53
50
62
54
56
61
63
65
73
74
64
70
68
58
60
71
76
69
57
69
75
78
75
60
63
52
66

56
49
61
67
47
64
59
53
62
62
66
71
74
66
69
70
62
62
68
75
76
56
66
74
76
76
63
63
54
61

81
70
81
80
86
79
74
84
78
85
87
88
82
84
86
75
82
87
89
83
71
86
86
89
84
70
78
68
79

AVERAGE
54
61
55
49
56
56
55
56
55
53
56
54
56
58
62
60
60
60
56
57
60
61
59
52
60
60
61
58
52
55
50
56

INDEX OF LEVEL OF INVENTORIES , MFG. \ND TRADE—
AVERAGE

1 950. .
1951
1952
1953
1 954.
1955
1 956 . .
195 7
195 8
195 9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
196 8
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

38
66
54
52
50
50
60
60
57
60
52
60
56
60
64
66
65
63
66
62
60
61
69
70
64
60
65
67
70
62
63
54
52

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. These are copyrighted
series used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.




67
85
70

AVERAGE

(PERCEKT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)

1 950
1951
1 952
195 3
1954
. .
1 95 5
1 956
1957 . . . .
1 95 8
195 9
1 960
1961
1962
963
L 964
1965
L 966
967
968
L969
1970
L971
1 07?
19 73
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1 9 8 0 . . ... .
1981
1982
1983
1984

58
86
68
75
65
72
82
77

9 7 4 . DIFFUSION INDEX OF NO. OF EMPLOYEES, MFG. AND T R A D E ANTICIPATED ©
(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)

975.
ACTUAL

.

1 95 0
1951
1 95 2
1953
1954
1 955
195 6
195 7
1 95 8 .
1 95 9
1960..
1961 .
1962
1963
1964. .
1965 . .
1966
1967
1 96 8
196 9 . .
1970
1971
1972. . . . .
1973
1974
1975 . .
1 976
1977
1978 .
1979
1980..
1981
1982
1983. .
1984

42
65
47

50
69
47

46
58
61
59
48
62
60
53
63
60
63
64
68
66
66
68
61
62
66
72
67
54
64
68
70
74
70
61
56
58

48
57
61
54
46
63
58
57
62
58
63
64
69
63
67
66
64
65
66
72
72
50
70
72
73
71
53
66
56
62

57
56
45
54
47
62
58
56
52
62
54
56
58
60
63
66
69
62
66
66
58
65
66
70
72
54
66
70
74
68
56
64
50
64

47
64
48
48
57
60
57
61
58
54
61
58
62
64
68
64
66
66
61
63
65
71
70
56
66
69
71
71
60
64
54
59

(JANUARY 1985)

101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

II Q

1Q

ACTUAL

©

III Q

IV Q

(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER
52
86
46
58
44
56
68
64
52
60
55
50
53
54
54
61
72
70
76
80
80
76
72
84
96
78
82
86
88
93
88
86
68
60

41
92
50
53
44
50
70
70
52
58
58
52
54
50
56
58
70
70
74
82

1950 . . .
1951
1952 . . .
195 3
195 5
1956
1957 . . . . .
195 8 . . .
195 9
1 960
1961...
1963...!.
1964
1965
1 966
1967 . . .
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974 . . .
1975

n

74
7C
82
92
81
8C

1 977
1978
1979..,,,
1980 . .
1981, , ,
1982 . . .
1983 , . ,
1984

8V
90
8(1
TA
61.

Annual
AVERAGE

SPANS)

82
73
52
60
47
64
72
53
60
54
54
54
55
56
64
78
72
78
82
78
68
72
86
94
78
80
87
90
92
90
84
63
65

92
63

67
78

51
48
68
74
60
56
58
52
52
53
55
56
65
76
73
80
82
75
70
74
90
89
78
82
87
91
94
90
82
60
68

56
46
60
71
53
59
55
52
54
54
56
62
74
71
77
82
78
72
72
86
93
79
81
86
89
93
90
85
66
64

Year

II Q

IQ

1951
195 2
1 95 3
1954
195s!.!!!
1956
1957
1 95 8
195 9
1 960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
...
1973
1974
1975
1976 . . . .
1977
1978
1979 . . . .
1 980
1981
1982

34
90
62
56
*50
66
69
58
62
56
57
53
57
58
65
74
74
75
79
76
68
73
86
86
75
78
82
86
87
88
80
65

1950
1951
195 2
195 3
1954
195 5
1956...
195 7
195 8 . . .
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
197 8
1979
1980
1981
1982 . . ,
1983
1984

©

(PERC3N1

RISING OVE t 4-QUARTER

4<'t
94
48
48
46
53
71
74
54
62
57
51
55
52
60
63

6

74
01
(15
{to
yo
BO
(14
!i9
92
90
It
03

61
85
42
58
43
60
68
71
54
64
56
51
52
56
56
60
76
74
82
85
85
8ft
81
89
96
79
80
86
92
9S
90
83
67
62

AVERAGE

SPARS)

90
78
58
60
48
69
79
59
65
54
54
50
60
58
68
82
80
82
86
86
73
82
92
94
81
80
88
93
95
92
84
68
68

94
68

72
81

50
50
70
78
66
62
64
52
54
54
58
60
70
78
82
85
85
84
74
80
96
91
81
88
90
94
96
90
82
61
70

54
47
63
74

9 7 8 . DIPPUSJO N INDEX )F SELLING P RICES, RETAIL TRADEACTUAL ® (PERCENT R I S I N G OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1950
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
195 5 .
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962,
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967 .
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971,
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1962.
1983.
1984

. . .

Annual
AVERAGE

46
88
58

46
82
50

66
70
SO

50
54
70
67
55
60
62
55
56
54
58
60
68
72
76
79
76
76
72
80
89
76
78
81
84
88
90
90
76
66

46
55
66
64
52
60
58
56
56
56
58
61
72
68
75
78
78
75
72
83
92
68
80
86
87
88
83
89
68
70

4H
60
66
62
54
tv't
56
54
52
56
57
62
68
70
76
80
75
75
70
82
90
74
80
62
87
86
86
84
66
69

38
94
44
53
44
49
65
64
54
62
54
52
55
52
36
62
78
74
88
91
86
86
73
90
92
80
86
90
91
94
92
94
78
68

49
82
43
52
42
55
66
64
52
65
58
50
52
54
56
61
78
00
88
90
86
(14
76
07
97
34
36
36
94
95
91
90
75
72

85
76
52
56
44
66
72
58
62
56
57
54
58
60
67
84
84
88
90
85
73
79
93
96
86
92
92
94
94
94
86
74
69

57
64
55
52
53
56
58
65
7B
78
82
85
86
80
81
92
94
80
83
88
92
96
91
86
67
66

AVERAGE
95
64

67
79

50
52
64
70
58
59
59
54
54
54
61
58
70
80
87
92
89
86
74
81
93
92
88
86
92
93
96
90
86
68
72

*53
46
58
68
56
62
56
53
54
56
58
65
80
81
89
90
86
79
78
91
94
84
88
90
93
95
92
89
74
70

/\t?

48
55
*55
67
66
*60
60
§5
55
55
58
60
68

n

75
78
77
76
70
80
89
76
78
82
85
87
86
88
72
66




A1)

E TRADE-9 7 7 . DIFFUSION INDEX OF SI LLING PR
ANTICIPATED @ (PERCENT RISING OVER*4-QUARTBR SPANS)
1950 . . . .
1951
1952
...
1953
1954
1955
1 956
195 7 ' . ! * . . !
195 8
195 9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
196 8 . . . .
1969
1970 . . . .
1971
1972
1973
1974 . . . .
1975
1976
1977 . . . .
1578
197 9 . . . .
1980 . . . .
1981
1982
1983
1984

30
92
68
56
53
51
71
72
62
65
55
59
52
61
62
68
76
78
79
77
80
70
80
88
87
80
80
84
88
90
90
82
68

44
90
56

48
84
50

50
54
70
74
62
66
68
55
58
55
60
62
72
73
82
80
80
82
78
86
94
74
82
86
90
90
92
89
78
64

*45
56
68
66
54
64
60
56
59
55
59
64
76
69
78
80
82
82
80
88
92
70
82
86
a?
92
87
89
72
68

73
60
50
56
48
64
68
70
59
69
56
56
54
54
58
60
72
74
78
80
80
82
74
84
91
76
84
84
90
90
88
84
68
72

9 7 8 . DIFFUSIOH INDEX OF £ ELLING PRICES, RETAIL T R A D E ANTICIPATED ®
(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
195 0
1951..
195 2 . .
1953..
1954..
1955..
195 6 . .
1957..
195 8 . .
195 9 . .
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967.,
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971 . .
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1982..
1983..
1984..

24
90
63
55
50
48
66
69
5S
62
55
57
52
58
58
63
76
81
84
80
80
67
76
87
88
81
86
90
90
90
90
82
69

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of tne user. These are copyrights
ries used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

102

IV Q

1984!!!!!
T liS T\ O V

ACTUAL

III Q

9 7 6 . DIFFUSION INDEX QF SE LLING PRICES, MANUFACTURINGANTICIPATED (JI) (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)

35
94
52

42
88
44

48
48
67
66
55
62
60
55
57
54
60
59
70
76
84
84
80
80
74
85
89
75
82
84
88
92
93
90
81
67

44
53
66
60
52
62
56
55
55
54
57
60
76
72
86
84
81
80
74
88
92
72
84
89
92
92
84
92
76
70

AV2RACR
49
82
56
49
56
69
70
*65
62
56
58
54
60
62
72
73
79
80
80
62
76
84
91
77
82
84
86
90
89
88
75
68

AVERAGE
65
64
45
52
42
55
66
52
66
57
52
55
57
57
62
75
78
87
86
80
80
74
83
93
79
86
88
92
90
90
87
72
71

42
84
51
46
51
66
65
62
59
54
56
54
58
60
71
76
84
84
80
80
72
83
90
78
83
87
90
91
89
90
78
69
(JANUARY 1985)

E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States

Duration in months

Trough

Cycle

Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)

Business cycle reference dates

Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Peak from
previous

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak

18

30
22
46
18
34

March 1882
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893....
December 1895 .

65
38
13
10
17

June 1897
December 1900
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912

June 1899
September 1902 ,
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913

December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
July 1924
November 1927

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870

June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873

March 1879
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894

18
8

48
30

40

M

11
36

50
52

36
22
27
20
18

99
74
35
37
37,

101
60
40
30
35

18
18
23
13
24

24
21
33
19
12

36
42
44
46
43

42
39
56
32
36

August 1918 ....
January 1920....
May 1923
October 1 9 2 6 . . .
August 1929 ....

23

44
10
22
27
21

35

SL

51

17
40
41
34

March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
May 1954

May 1937
February 1945 ..
November 1948.
July 1953
August 1957 ....

43
13

Aprill958
February 1961
November 1970
March 1975

April 1960
Decemberl969 .
November 1973 .
January 1980....

July 1980
November 1982

July 1981

iZ

1

18
14
13

1

11

8
10

ii

16
6
16

28
36
40

50
80
37
45
39

64
63
88
48

24
10£
36
58
12

47
34

HZ

93
93
45

56
49

32

Hi
47
74
18

52
64
28

Average, all cycles:
1854-1982 (30 cycles).
1854-1919 (16 cycles).
19194945 (6 cycles)...
1945-1982 (8 cycles)..

18
22
18
11

33
27
35
45

51
48
53
56

Average, peacetime cycles:
1854-1982 (25 cycles)..
1854-1919 (14 cycles)..
1919-1945 (5 cycles)....
1945-1982 (6 cycles) ...

19
22
20
11

27
24
26
34

46
46
46
46

1
2

3

51
49
53
55

3

46
•47
45
44

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korean war, and Vietnam war), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles
that include the wartime expansions.
1

29 cycles.

2

15 cycles.

1

24 cycles.

4

13 cycles.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




103

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

I I l:i|Pj:il I •

Components of BCD series 26 *
Year

and
quarter

Implicit price
deflator, gross
nonfarm business
Vl I/* f\ f\ 1 1

Unit labor cost,
all persons, nonfarm
business sector

Components of BCD series 26—

/ " ^

proouct
(Index: 1977=100)

(Index: 1977=100)

146.5
148.6
149.3
150.2

151.4
154.2
155.6
157.1

151.9
152.7
153.8
° 155.2

157.6
155.9
155.9
157.1

156.3
157.3
rl59.0
p!59.9

158.3
157.6
rl59.5
p!60.2

Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm
business product, Q

1982
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...
1983
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...

Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm
business sector, Q
(index: 1977-100)

1984
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...

Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars 2
Year
and
month

Manufacturing
(Ratio)

Merchant
wholesalers
(Ratio)

Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)

Retail trade
(Ratio)

1983
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr,.
May..
June.

1.96
1.96
1.91
1.90
1.87
1.81

1.44
1.47
1.45
1.46
1.38
1.34

1.36
1.38
1.35
1.35
1.33
1.31

July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..

1.83
1.80
1.78
1.77
1.74
1.69

1.35
1.35
1.35
1.34
1.34
1.32

1.31
1.33
1.32
1.32
1.32
1.31

Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.

1.71
1.72
1.72
1.74
1.74
1.75

1.30
1.34
1.33
1.34
1.30
1.29

1.29
1.33
1.36

July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..

1.77
1.76
1.80
rl.79
pi. 77
(NA)

1.32
1.34
1.37
rl.37
pi.37
(NA)

1.33
1.34
1.33
1.36
pi.34
(NA)

1984

1.34
1.32
1.30

1971 1972
NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
^Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

104




G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
5. Average weekly initial claims,
State
unemployment insurance1 (thousands) . . . . .
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) .
32. Vendor performance, companies receiving
slower deliveries (percent)
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
29. New building permits, private housing
units (index: 1967-100)
36. Change in inventories2 on hand and on order in
1972 do!., smoothed (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed2 (percent) .
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
106, Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars
(billion dollars) . . . .
111. Change in credit—business and consumer
borrowing (annual rate, percent)
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3
(index: 1967-100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thousands) . . . .
51. Personal income less transfers in 1972
dollars (annual rate, billion dollars).
47. Industrial production, total
(index: 1967=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972
dollars (million dollars)
920.
Composite index
of 4 roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales,
manufacturing and trade (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturingactual data as a percent of trend (percent)
109, Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1972 dollars (million dollars)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income (percent)
3
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
(index: 1967-100)

Sept.
1984

Oct.
1984

Net contribution to index

Nov.
1984

Sept.
to
Oct.
1984

Dec.
1984

Oct.
to
Nov.
1984

Nov.
to
Dec.
1984

40.6

40.4

40.5

p40 .7

-0.15

0.08

0.17

368

405

397

386

-0.27

0.06

0.08

36.68

36.90

r37.08

p37.64

0.03

0.02

0.08

58

52

50

45

-0.24

-0.08

-0.22

rll8.8

rll.9.1

rll7.9

P115.2

0.04

-0.14

-0.35

rl5.76

rl4.95

rl6.06

pl3.54

-0.12

0.16

-0.40

114.5

128.5

128.1

-0.05

0.34

-0.01

rl6.81

rl8.80

pl0.52

0.11

-0.46

- 1 .06

-0.81

-0.46

-0.41

0.10

0.14

0.02

166.11

164.82

166.27

164.48

-0.05

0.05

-0.07

r921 .5

r922.9

932.4

p942.5

0.05

0.33

0.38

rl6.4

rl2.7

rl2.1

pl2.5

-0.19

-0.03

0.02

rl65.2

rl64.2

rl65.2

pl64.9

-0.61

0.61

-0.18

94,807

r95,154

r95,489

p95,798

0.30

0.29

0.35

1 ,191.9

rl,192.9

rl ,200.3

pi,209.6

0.04

0.31

0.50

165.0

rl64.5

rl65.2

pl66.2

-0.08

0.12

0.22

176,023

rl76,521

pl78,836

0.06

0.29

156.0

rl56.2

rl57.5

pl58.9

0.13

0.83

0.89

rl7.3

rl6,7

rl7.4

17.3

0.25

-0.30

0.06

1.57

1.57

pi.55

0.00

-0.26

r83.5

r83.4

r83.0

p83,0

-0.04

-0.15

0.00

12.97

12.58

11 .77

11 . 0 6

-0.27

-0.57

-0.73

rll9,933

rl22,212

rl23 ,038

pl24,949

0.50

0.18

0.60

14.59

r!4.72

pl4.89

NA

0.50

0.65

rl21.0

r l 2 2 .2

rl21.7

p l 2 1 .6

0.99

-0,41

116.3.

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA
-0.08

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It
is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
(pp. 108-109) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
1
This
z
This
3

series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment
factor for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.




105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS

These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of
the current business cycle. To set the current movements in historical
perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods also
are shown, The selected periods are superimposed to compare the
current business cycle with corresponding historical patterns and to
facilitate critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and severity of
the indicators' current movements.

1. For most indicators, two cyclical comparison charts are shown.
In the left panel, comparisons Eire based on reference peak levels and
reference trough dates; in the [fight panel, comparisons are based on
both the levels and the dates of the specific troughs in each indicator.
(See the charts on the following pages)

This number indicates the latest month (or
quarter) of data plotted. (1=January)

The three-part code indicates the timing
classification of the series at peaks, at troughs,
and at all turns: L=leading; Oroughly coincident; Lg=lagging; and U=unclassified.

Series number, series title

2. The vertical lin« represents trough dates: reference trough
dates in the left panel ortd specific trough dates in the right panel. The
current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so
that their reference trough dates (left panel) and specific trough dates
(right panel) are on this vertical line.

•135

3. The horizontal line represents the level of data at reference cycle peaks (left panel) and specific cycle troughs (right panel). The
current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so
that their reference peak level* (left panel) and specific trough.levels
(right panel) are on this horizontal line.

•130

• 125
4. For most series, deviations (percent or actual differences) from
the reference peak and specific trough levels are computed and plotted.
For series measured in percent units (e.g., the unemployment rate),
these units (actual data) are plotted rather than deviations. The deviations (if plotted) and actual data for the current cycle are shown in the
tables accompanying the charts.

•120

5, For series that move counter to movements in general business
activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used; i.e.,
declines in data are plotted es upward movements, and increases in
data are plotted as downward movements,

_ -10

6. Several curves are shown in each chart. The heavy solid line
( M M * ) describes the current cycle. The dotted line ( • • • ) represents
the median pattern of the seven post-World War II cycles. The other
lines represent selected business cycles. In the left panel, each line is
labeled according to the year ef the reference trough; in the right panel,
each line is labeled according to the date of the specific trough.
7. These charts use the business cycle (reference) peak and trough
dates designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Peaks: Nov. 1948 (IVQ 1948), July 1953 (IIQ 1953), Aug. 1957
(IIIQ 1957), Apr. 1960 (IIQ i960), Dec. 1969 (IVQ 1969), Nov. 1973
(IVQ 1973), Jan. 1980 (IQ I960), July 1981 (IIIQ 1981).

•U5

• 110

»6

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from troughs

Troughs: Oct. 1949 (IVQ 1949), May 1954 (IIQ 1954), Apr. 1958
(IIQ 195$, Feb. 1961 (IQ 1961), Nov. 1970 (IVQ 1970), Mar. 1975 (IQ
1975), July 1980 (IIIQ 1980), November 1982 (IVQ 1982).

This scale measures time in months before (~)
and after ( + ) reference trough dates (left
panei) and specific trough dates (right panel).

106




This scale shows deviations (percent or actual
differences) from reference peak levels (left
panel) and specific trough levels (right panel).

This scale shows actual series units and applies
only to the current business cycle (heavy solid
line).

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons; Current and Selected Historical Patterns
I 11 I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I j I I I I I I I I I I I [ I I I I I I I I I I

Deviations
from
reference
peaks

5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted)

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

Percent

-20
-10
0
+10
+ 20

• 500

+ 40
+ 50

• 600

+ 60

• 650

+ 80
+ 90
+100
+ 110

43. Unemployment rate, total
(inverted)
Actual
data

11111111 [ 11111 II II f I I I } 1111 1111111 M M 111 11 M

Deviations
from
specific
troughs

5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted)

SERIES
5
THOUSANDS
14
15
16

- 7 . 8
-12.7
-11.9

364
345
348

1/84
2/84
3/84

17
18
19
20

- 8 . 9
-11.9
-11 .4
-7.6

360
348
350
365

4/84
5/84
6/84
7/84

21
22
23
24

-9.4
-6.8
2.5
0.5

358
368
405
397

8/84
9/84
10/84
11/84

25

-2.3

386

12/84

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
9/82
DATA YEAR

+ 30

+70

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
7/81
DATA YEAR

Actual
data

for
current
cycle

• 425

SERIES
5
THOUSANDS
16

-44.3

364

17
18
19
20

-47.2
-46.7
-44.9
-46.7

345
348
360
348

21
22
23
24

-46.4
-44.1
-45.2
-43.6

350
6/84
365 7 / 8 4
358 8 / 8 4
368 9 / 8 4

25
26
27

-38 0
-39 2
-40 9

40 5
397
386

MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

1/84
2/84
3/84
4/84
5/84

• 575

• 625

10/84
11/84
12/84

CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
SERIES
43
PERCENT

14
15
16

8.0
7.8
7.8

1/84
2/84
3/84

17
18
19
20

7.8
7.5
7.2
7.5

4/84
5/84
6/84
7/84

21
22
23
24

7.5
7.4
7.3
7.1

8/84
9/84
10/84
11/84

25

7.2

12/84

43. Unemployment rate, total
(inverted)

• 7

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA YEAR
12/82

-

- 2

SERIES
43
PERCENT

1982
10

iiiliiiiiliMnliMiiliiiiilmnlutiilimi
-6

13
14
15
16

-2 7
-2 9
-2 9
-2 .9

8.0
7,8
7.8

17
18
19
20

-3 .2
-3 .5
-3 .2

7.5

-3 .2

7.2
7.5
7.5

5/84
6/84
7/84
8/84

21
22
23
24

-3 .3
-3 .4
-3 .6
-3 .5

7.4
7.3
7 .1
7.2

9/84
10/84
11/84
12/84

7.8

0 + 6 +12 +10 + 2 4 + 3 0
Months from reference troughs

NOTE:

1/84
2/84
3/84
4/84

MO

-J

i 111111 j 11 i n

- 1 2 - 6

0

111 i t 1111 n I t i t n 111111111111

0 + 6

+12 +18 +24 +30

Months from specific troughs

For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of this issue.




107

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
11111IIII11II1111II11 111 1111 M 1I It 1111 1111111

Deviations
from
reference
peaks

23. Spot market prices, raw industrials'
u.ul

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

Percent

+ 40
+ 35
+ 30

• 375

MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

IT T111 TTT 11111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l l l | T 1 f M I I 1 f f f

DeviActual
ations
data
from
for
specific current
troughs cycle

l

23. Spot market prices, raw industrials
Ir

SERIES
23*
1967-100
14
15
16

-1.0
-1.0
0.9

283.6
283.6
289.2

1/84
2/84
3/84

17
18
19
20

0.7
1.0
-0.1
-2.3

288.6
289.5
286.2
280.1

4/84
5/84
6/84
7/84

21
22
23
24

-3
-4
-7
-6

.8
.4
.0
,4

275.6
274.0
266.4
268.3

8/84
9/84
10/84
11/84

-8.6

261 . 9

12/84

+ 25

1975

DEVIATIONS CURRENT MONTH
FROM ACTUAL
AND
7/81
DATA
YEAR

• 47S

• 450

• 425

• 350

+ 20
+ 15

• 325

SERIES
231
1967-100

+10
+5

• 400

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
12/82
DATA
YEAR

• 300

0
-5
-10
• 250

• 375

13
14
15

24.7
24.7
27.2

283.6
283.6
289.2

1/84
2/84
3/84

16

26.9

288.6

4/84

17
18
19
20

27.3
25.9
23.2
21.2

289,5
286.2
280.1
275.6

5/84
6/84
7/84
8/84

21
22
23
24

20.5
17 . 2
18.0
15.2

274.0
9/84
266.4 10/84
268.3 11/84
261.9 12/84

• 350

• 325

• 300

-15
MONTHS
-20

• 225

DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
FROM
ACTUAL
REF.
AND
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
7/81

101. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding in 1972 dollars
• 125,000

• 115,000

- +20
105,000

- +10

14
15
16

1 1 . 9 103380
1 3 . 5 104838
1 6 . 9 107960

1/84
2/84
3/84

17
18
19
20

19.9
22.3
25.9
27.0

110735
112918
116268
117313

4/84
5/84
6/84
7/84

21
22
23
24

27.9
29.9
32.3
33.2

118132
119933
122212
123038

8/84
9/84
10/84
11/84

25

35.3 124949

12/84

0

-

-10

-t

-20

I I I I I I I I I I 1 I II I I i l l I I I I I I ) I M I I t I I I 1 I I I II
M2 - 6
0 +6
+12 +18 +24 +30

101. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding in 1972 dollars

• 125,000

SERIES 101
BIL. DOL.

• 120,000

- 15

3
4

1.0
2.5

103380
104838

1/84
2/84

• 85,000

5
6
7
8

5.5
8.2
10.4
13.6

107960
110735
112918
116288

3/84
4/84
5/84
6/84

• 75.000

9
10
11
12

14.6
15.4
17.2
19.4

117313
118132
119933
122212

7/84
8/84
9/84
10/84

- 5

11/84
12/84

-I 0

13
14

2 0 . 2 123038
2 2 . 1 124949

• 115,000
-

108

10
M 10,000

• 105,000

-12

-6

0 + 8

+12 +18 +24 +30

Months from specific troughs

For an explanation of those charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of this issue.

* This a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.




• 250

10/83

Months from reference troughs

NOTE;

- 1 0

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR

95.000
-

• 275

SERIES 101
BIL. DOL.

-25

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
111111111111 ii 111111 ] ii n n i ii M [i T 111 r n FIT Actual
data

111111111 j 111111 111IT 111111 1111111111III If TIT

QRTRS.
FROM
REF.
TROUGH

30. Change in business inventories,
1972 dollars

+35

+ 30

CURRENT QRTR.
AND
ACTUAL
DATA YEAR

0

SERIES
30
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL
IV/82
-24.6

1
2
3
4

-16.5
-6.1
0.9
7.2

1/83
11/83
CII/83
IV/83

5
6

31.6
20.3
30.6
14.2

1/84
11/84
[11/84
IV/84

7
8

+25

30. Change in bsiness inventories,
1972 dollars

Deviations
from
specific
troughs

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

QRTRS.
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
AND
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
TROUGH I V / 8 2
DATA YEAR

+20

0

SERIES
30
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL
0.
IV/82
-24.6

1
2
3
4

8.1
18.5
25.5
31.8

-16.5
-6.1
0.9
7.2

1/83
11/83
[11/83
IV/83

5

56.2
44.9
55.2
38.8

31.6
20.3
30.6
14.2

1/84
11/84
[11/84
IV/84

+15

+10

+5

6
7
8

-5

-10

-15

50. GNP, in 1972 dollars

DeviActual
ations
data
from
for
reference current
peaks
cycle

+15
• 1,725

+10

• 1,675
•

1,625

+5
• 1,575

•1,525

\ 1,475

• -20

0

SERIES 50
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
- 2 . 8 1478.8
IV/82

1

-2.0

1491.0

1/83

2
3
4

0.2
1.8
3.3

1524.8
1550.2
1572.7

11/83
111/83
IV/83

5.8
7.7
8.1
9.1

1610.9
1638.8
1645.2
1661 .1

1/84
11/84
111/84
IV/84

5
6
7
8

.

-6

• 1.675

DEVIATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
AND
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
YEAR
TROUGH 111/82
DATA

— 10

SERIES 50
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
0.
1477.1 111/82
1
9
2
9

1478.8
IV/82
1491.0
.1/83
1524.8 11/83
1550.2 111/83

5
1
9
4

1572.7
IV/83
1610 .9
1/84
1638.8 11/84
1645.2 111/84
1661 .1

0 + 6 +12 +16 +24 +30
Months from reference troughs

NOTE:

50. GNP in 1972 dollars
exx

QRTRS.
FROM

12.5

-12

• -15

DEVIQRTRS.
FROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
AND
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
TROUGH 111/81
DATA YEAR

-20

IV/84

•1,625

> 1,575

• 1,525

-1 0

> 1,475

nlmnlun 11 II 111111iln111Ii111ilii11
-12

-6

0 + 6 +12 +18 +24 +30
Months from specific troughs

For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of this issue.




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series tide

(See complete titles tn "Titles ami
Sources ol Series," following this index)

Accession rate, manufacturing
,
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment........
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl .,
Consumer sentiment, index...... .... ..........................
Fmployees, manufacturing and trade, DL....................
Inventories, manufacturing and Uade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, DL.
Prices, manufacturing, Dl ................
Prices, retail trade, Dl .............. ....................
Prices, wholesale trade, DL...
.,.„,.„...„........„.
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl
...
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Autoinobiles>
Imports ol automobiles and parts
.................,.
Personal consumption expenditures

Current issue
Series (Page numbers) _
number Charts Tables

2
604

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
<*)

8/81
11/84

61
970
§8
974
975
971
976
978
977
972
973

24
38
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
38

67
76
65
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76

8/84
8/84
1/84
1/85
1/85
1/85
1/85
1/85
1/85
1/85
1/85

7
56
23
23
20
3?
37
37
37
37
37
37
37

S16
55

56
22

92
65

11/84
9/84

56
39

B
Balance of payments- -See International transactions,
Batik loans See Business Loans.
Bank rates See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves,,. ,.,,......,....,...
Member bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve..
Bonds See Interest rates.
Borrowing See Credit.
Budget See Government.
Building See Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment.......,.,
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl ...
Business failures, current liabilities...,.,...
Business formation, index........
Business incorporations
Business inventories See Inventories.
Business loans
loans outstanding, constant collars
loans outstanding, current dellars
.,.
loans outstanding, net change „.....,........„„...
Business saving........ ,„

Canada See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing ( B U )
Manufacturing (FRB)
,,,...
Materials

..„„..,..
......

Capital appropriation1), manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
...............
Newly approved, Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index
,
Capital investment See Investment, capital.
Capital investment cammitmen's, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current collars
Civilian labor lorce See also employment.
Employment
Fmployment as percent ol population......
Total labor force
Unemployed.....
,.
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
....,, ..„......,
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index................
Commercial and industrial buidings, contracts awarded..
Commercial and industrial loa is
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
...
Loans outstanding, net ehtinfie
Compensation See also Income.
Compensation, average hotirly, nonfarm
business sector..
Compensation of employees, NIPA
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
,...
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfartj
business sector.................... ....„.,
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
, .„,....„
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
four eomeiders, index
Four Goineiders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers, index
Six laggers, rate of change........
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments.
Inventory investment and purchasing
., Marginal employment adjustments
Money and financial flows
,

See notes at end of index.

110




93
94

33
33

6/83
6/83

35
35

29
76
61
970
14
12
13

13,25
24
24
38
33
12,23
23

67
67
67
76
72
65
65

7/84
8/84
8/84
8/84
5/83
12/84
12/84

24
12
23
23
34
21
21

101
72
112
295

15,35
35
32
46

73
73
72
82

6/84
6/84
6/84
11/84

32
32
32
26

83
82
84

20
20
20

64
64
64

12/83
8/83
8/83

14
14
14

97
11
965
333

24
24
37
48

66
66
75
86

12/83
12/83
12/83
3/84

22
22
22
51

914
35
34

11
29
29

60
70
70

7/84
9/84
9/84

5
26
26

442
90
441
37

51
17
51
18,51

89
62
89
62,89

2/84
2/84
2/84
2/84

9
9
9
9

920
920c
951
940
9

10
39
36
11
23

60

1/84
1/84
12/84
7/84
12/83

5
"5
5
21

101
72
112

15,35
35
32

73
73

n

6/84
6/84
6/84

32
32
32

345
280

49
45

87
82

12/84
10/84

46
46

64

30,47

70,83

9/84

46

346

49

88

12/84

46

340

49

87

8/84

5

341
348
349

49
50
50

87
88
88

8/84
12/83
12/83

5
53
53

74
60
66

9/84
920
920c
940

10
39
11

60

930
930c

10
39

60

1/84
1/84

5

914
915
913
917

11
11

60
60

11

60

7/84
7/84
2/83
7/84

5
5
5
5

'60*

1/84
1/84
7/84

5
'5

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Profitability
Twelve leaders, index
Twelve leaders, rate of change..................
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings..
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales....
Gross private domestic fixed investment
Nonresirfential, percent of GNP
Presidential structures, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Residential, total, constant dollars
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
.....
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
,
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars. .
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income ..
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index

Debt-See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, output
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
................
Gross unpaid obligations
,
Net outlays
,.
Personnel, civilian
...,
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
.,
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
,
Defense purchases, goods and services, NIPA
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial production
,
Industrial production, components..
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
lagging indicators
Leading indicators.....
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components..
New orders, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components ....
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing production workers
Workweek, manufacturing production workers,
components
Disposable personal income—See income.

Series (page numbers)
lumber Charts Tables

Historical
Series
description
data
(issue date)
(•)
7/84
5
1/84
5
1/84

916
910
910c

11
10
39

60
60

29

13,25

67

7/84

24

9
69

23
24

66
67

12/83
9/84

l\
17

248
8?
86
249
89
28
334
8
75

47
25
25
47
25
25
48
12,21
22

83
67
67
83
6?
67
86
64
65

10/84
9/84
9/84
10/84
9/84
4/84
3/84
4/84
8/84

40
40
40
40
40
24
51
15
12

66
113
95
39

35
32
15,35
33

73
72
73
72

6/84
6/84
9/84
11/83

33
33
33
34

320
322
58

49
49
22

84,95
84
65

4/84
4/84
1/84

49
49
20

525

53

90

11/84

55

20

12,23

66

12/84

n

10
116

23
34

66
73

12/84
8/83

21
35

11/84

110

32

101
72
112

15,35
35
32

73
73
11

6/84
6/84
6/84

32
32
32

66
113
95
39
111
33

35
32
15,35
33
13,32
32

73
72
73
11
71

6/84
6/84
9/84
11/83
6/84
5/84

33
33
33
34
31
31

98
331

28
48

69
85

3/84
3/84

51
50

n

11/84

55/

54

517
543
580
578
577
525

53
53
54
55
55
53

90
90
91
91
91
90

1/84
11/84
7/83
1/84
1/84
11/84

55
55
56
56
56
55

559
548
588
561
570
564
565

54
53
54
54
55
55
55

91
90
91
91
91
91
91

6/84
6/84
6/84
6/84
7/84
9/84
9/84

17
15
17
15
5
43
43

39
32

33
12,21

72
64

11/83
5/83

34
1/

970
965
951
974
963
966

38
37
36
38
36
37

8/841
12/83
12/84
1/85
7/84
8/84

23

962
975
952
950
964

36
38
36
36
37

971
960
972
967

38
37
38
37
38"
38
38
38
3?
36

76
75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74

973
976
978
977
968
961

1/85
1/85
12/84
12/84
6/84

i/85

12/83
1/85
1/85

i/85

1/85
1/85
1/85
6/83
7/84

n
5
37
5
12
37
5
15
"37*
37
37
25
- • • •

37
37
37
25
5

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources ot Series," following this index)

Earnings—See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
;
Civilian labor force, total
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
Employees in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Employment in defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Employment, total civilian
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, manufacturing production workers..
Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployed, both sexes, 1619 years old
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment, total civilian
Workweek, manufacturing production workers
Workweek, manufacturing production workers,
components
Workweek, manufacturing production workers, Dl
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Exports—See International transactions.
Federal funds rate
Federal Government—See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from....
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food—See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France—See International comparisons.
Free reserves
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget, NIPA
Federal expenditures.. .
....
Federal receipts .
Federal surplus or deficit.
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
^ ..
federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP.
National defense
National defense, percent of GNP.
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent ot GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes ...
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply M l
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital.
H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers. . ..
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment..
Hours of production workers, manufacturing

Current issue
Series (P^e numbers)
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description

H

2
441
578
577

51
55
55

89
91
91

8/81
2/84
1/84
1/84

7
9
56
56

48c
48

39
17

61

12/84
12/84

"5

40
974
41
963
570
90
442
46
60
5
962
3
913
21
453
452
451
448
42
4
446
445
447
444
91
44
45
43
37

17
38
14,17
36
55
17
51
16
16
12,16
36

62
76
62
74
91
62
89
61
61
61
74

'is'
51

ei9'
8
89
89
89
62

961

36

51
51
51
17
bl
51
51
51
15,18
18
18
18
18,51
12,16

119

34

94
213
917

33
40
11

89'
89
89
89
62
62
62
62
62,89
61
77
74

7/84
1/85
7/84
7/84
7/84
2/84
2/84
2/84
2/84
1/85
1/85
8/81
2/83
7/84
2/84
2/84
2/84
2/84
2/84
8/81
2/84
2/84
2/84
2/84
2/84
2/84
4/84
2/84
2/84
7/84

5
37
5
5
5
9
9
9
9
8
8
7
5
5
9
9
9
9
9

7/84

5

9
9
9
9
9
9
8
9
9
5

10/83

72
80
60

311

6/83
10/84
7/84

35
38
5

9/84

6/83

Series (page n u m b e r s >
number Charts Tables

Average weekly overtime
Average workweek
Average workweek, components
Average workweek, Dl
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits
Residential GPOI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

21
1

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

52
52
52
52
52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
83

9/84
9/84
9/84
9/84
9/84
9/84
11/84

53
53
53
53
53
53
48

263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260

43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43

81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81

10/84
10/84
10/84
9/84
9/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84

43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43

311
68

48
30

84
70

9/84
9/84

49
28

50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217

19,40

'3l'
20
48
40

63,80
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
80

10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
9/84
9/84
9/84
10/84

38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38

46
60

16
16

61
61

2/84
2/84

9
9

Series
description
(*)

961

36

28
29
89
249

25
13,25
25
47

67
67
67
83

10/84

Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Income on foreign investments in the United States
Income on U.S. investments abroad
lnterest.net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income, less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production—See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Durable manufactures
•
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components

310

48

84

9/84

345
280

49
45

87
82

12/84
10/84

46
46

966

37

Total, rate of change
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Installment credit—See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
lnterest.net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France

47c

39

967
23

37
28

5
962
45
288
289
67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332

Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany

....

7/84
7/84

4/84
7/84
9/84

7/84

24
24
40
40

64

30,47

70,83

9/84

46

346
95
286

49
15,35
45

88
73
82

12/84
9/84
11/84

46
33
26

287
225
224

47
40
40

83
80
80

11/84
10/84
10/84

26
11
11

227

40

80

10/84

340

49

87

8/84

341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223

49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63

8/84
8/84
8/84
11/84
11/84
10/84
9/84
9/84

5
57
57
47
47
.46
11
11

51c
51
108
282

39
14,19
31
45

63
71
82

9/84
9/84
9/84
10/84

"3ii
0

283
284

47
45

83
82

10/84
10/84

47
47

285
348
349

47
50
50

83
88
88

11/84
12/83
12/83

47
53
53

53
13
335

19
23
48

63
65
85

9/84
12/84
3/84

11
21
51

76
75
73
74
47

24
22
20
20
14,20,58

67
65
63
63
63,94
78

8/84
8/84
8/84
8/84
8/84

12
12
12
12
12

8/84
8/84

12

79
75
69

1/85
1/85

*25
25

12,16
36
18
45
47

61
74
62
82
83

1/85
1/85
4/84
11/84
11/84

8
8
8
47
47

35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48

73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
86

12/83
8/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
7/83
8/83
8/83
3/84

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50

96
95

60
61
61
61
60
49
61
59
59
59
59
58
58
12
59

75

737

59

96

738
732
320
735

59
59
49
59

95
95
84,95
95

4/84
4/84
4/84
4/84
4/84
4/84
4/84

94
94
94
94
94
94
63,94
94

5/84
5/84
5/84
5/84
5/84
5/84
8/84
5/84

733
736

Italy

16
12,16

Historical
data
(issue date)

61
61
77
74

Total, Dl

9/84

'39'
40

Current issue

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

59
59

723
58
726
58
727
58
728
58
721
58
722
58
47 14,20,58
725
58

47

See notes at end of index.




111

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources ot Series," following this index)
Stock prices
Canada....
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany,
International transactions
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military..
Exports, merchandise, total excluding military a i d . . . .
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars, NIPA
Exports of goods and services, current dollars, NIPA...
Exports of goods and services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
,
Imports, 'merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services, ccnstant dollars, NIPA
Imports of goods and services, current dollars, NIPA .
Imports of goods and services, total.
Imports of petroleum and products
Income on foreign investments in the United States ...
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Net exports of goods and services
eonstant dollars, NIPA
Net exports of goods and services.
current dollars, NIPA
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP.....
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars, NIPA ,
Business inventories, change, cwrent dollars, NIPA.....
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories on hand and on order, net change
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade....
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, book value.
Manufacturing and trade, chango in book value
Manufacturing and trade, consent dollars
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing, change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories. change—See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dcllars
Nonresidential. constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential,
constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Structures, nonresidential, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, capital goods, nordefense,
constant dollars
New orders, capital goods, nordefense,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, Dl.....
,
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investments in the United States.,.,
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Italy—See International comparisons.

Current issue
(P^e numbers)
number Charts Tables
Series

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

1/84
1/84
1/84
1/84
1/84
1/84
1/84

63
63
63
63
63
25
63

667
622
618
602
604
256
252
668
606
620
612
616
257
253
669
614
652
651

57
57
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
57

93
93
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
93

8/84
8/84
8/84
11/84
11/84
10/84
10/84
8/84
11/84
8/84
U/84
11/84
10/84
10/84
8/84
11/84
8/84
8/84

57
57
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
57

250
251

44
47

82
83

30
245
247
559
65
36
77
915
71
31
70
975

26,42
42
47
54
27
13,26
15,27
11
27
26
27
38

68,81
81
83
91
68
68
68
60
68
68
68
76

10/84
10/84
9/84
10/84
10/84
6/84
6/84
12/84
11/84
7/84
11/84
11/84
11/84
1/85

27

68

6/84

10/84

255

44
44
40
40
40
17
17
17
17
5
17
17
17
37

6/84

965
914
9

24
24
37
11
23

66
66
75
60
66

12/83
12/83
12/83
7/84
12/83

22
22
22
5
21

69

24

67

9/84

17

97

U

243
242
86
248

42
42
25
47

81
81
67
83

10/84
10/84
9/84
10/84

40
40
40
40

88
89
249
87
241
240

25
25
47
25
42
42

67
67
83
67
81
81

9/84
9/84
10/84
9/84
10/84
10/84

40
40
40
40
40
40

27

23

12/84

61
970
20
10

24
38
12,23
23

76
66
66

8/84
8/84
12/84
12/84

23
23
21
21

652
651

57
57

93
93

8/84
8/84

57
57

12/84

67

Japan=See International comparisons.
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
,.
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor cost per unit oi output, private business sector...
Labor cost, price per unit ot, nonfarm business
Labor force—See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
,
Composite index, rate of change
See notes at end ot index.

112




9/84
62
62
63
26

30
15
30
29

70
70
70
70

12/84
12/84
11/84
1/85

28
28
28
28

930
930c
952
3

10
39
36

60

5

74

1/84
1/84
12/84
8/81

910
910c

10
39

60

1/84
1/84

"5
7
5

Current issue

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Series (Pa&e numbers)
number Charts Tables

Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans-See Credit.

950
14
104

Historical
data
(issue date)

12/84
5/83
5/84

Series
description
(•)

5
34
29

36
33
31

74
72
71

2/83

5

78

27

68

6/84

17

38
8

26
12,21

68
64

6/84
4/84

17
15

84

20

64

8/83

917

11

60

7/84

104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117

31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73

5/84
5/84
5/84
5/84
5/84
9/84
9/84
5/84
10/83
10/83

29
29
29
30
29
30
30
31
35
35

27
24
8

23
23
12,21

66
66
64

12/84
12/84
4/84

15
15
15

20

12,23

66

12/84

21

10
548
7
6

23
53
21
21

12/84
6/84
6/84
6/84

21
15
15
15

964
971

37
38

66
90
64
64
77
75
76

6/84
1/85

"is

88
87
86
248

25
25
25
47

67
67
67
83

9/84
9/84
9/84
10/84

40
40
40
40

517
543
721

53
53
58

90
90
94

1/84
U/84
5/84

55
55
58

580

54

91

7/83

56

557
49

54
20

91
63

11/84
9/84

13
14

62
62
358
370
83
82
84
21

30
15
50
50
20
20
20
16

70
70
88
88
64
64
64
61

12/84
12/84
1/85
1/85
12/83
8/83
8/83
7/84

28
28
52
52
14
14
14

453
452
451

51
51
51

89
89
89

2/84
2/84
2/84

9
9
9

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47

65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83

9/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84

39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39

292
293
614

46
46
56

82
83
92

11/84
11/84
11/84

48
48
56

61
970
20
10
90

24
38
12,23
23
17

67
76
66
66
62

8/84
8/84
12/84
12/84
2/84

23
23
21
21
9

M
Man-hours—See Employment.
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing, change
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices—See Price indexes.
Materials, rate of capacity utilization
Merchandise trade-See International transactions.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Ct
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply M l , constant dollars
Money supply M l , percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields

913

N
National defense—See Defense.
National Government—See Government.
National income—See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders; manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidents fixed investment, GPDI
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP

37

0
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders—See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output—See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Defense and space equipment, output
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Per hour, private business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (BEA)
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB)
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing production workers
P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income—See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and products, imports
Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, Dl
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Population, civilian employment as percent of

,

5

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title

(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources ot Series," following this index)
Price indexes
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators, NIPA
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
...
Capital equipment
Crude materials
. . .
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities
...
..
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
..
Diffusion index
Spot market index
.
. .
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, 01 . . .
.
Retail trade, Dl
...
Wholesale trade, Dl
.
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices—See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production—See Gross national product and
industrial production
Productivity
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Output per hour, private business sector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after taxes
Constant dollars
Current dollars
. . . .
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars ...
.
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits, total
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
.
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAd|
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income

Quit rate, manufacturing

Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
.
Spot market index
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
.
. . .
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars,.GPDI
Residential fixed investment, percent of G N P . . . .
Residential structures—See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars

Serjes

Current issue
(page numbers)

number Charts

Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description

H

320
322

49
49

84,95
84

4/84
4/84

49
49

311
310
26

48
48
29

84
84
70

9/84
9/84
1/85

49
38
28

330
333
331
334
335
332
98

48
48
48
48
48
48
28

85
86
85
86
85
86
69

3/84
3/84
3/84
3/84
3/84
3/84
3/84

50
51
50
51
51
50
51

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

1/85
1/85

25
25

98
99

28
13,28

69
69

3/84
3/84

51
25

19
968
26

13,28
37
29

69
75
70

1/84
6/83
1/85

25
25
28

976
978
977
525
109

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

1/85
1/85
1/85
11/84
7/83

37
37
37
55
35

88

25

67

9/84

40

358
370
916

50
50
11

88
88
60

1/85
1/85
7/84

52
52
5

18
16
80
79

28
28
29
29

69
69
69
69

9/84
9/84
9/84
9/84

26
26
26
26

286
287
972
960
15
916
22

45
47
38
37
29
11
29

82
83
76
75
70
60
69

11/84
11/84
1/85
12/83
1/85
7/84
9/84

26
26
37
37
27
5
26

81
282

29
45

70
82

9/84
10/84

26
47

283

47

83

10/84

47

4

8/81

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

284

45

82

89
249

47
33
25
47

83
72
67

59
54

22
22

285
93

1/85
1/85
10/84

25

25

47

47
35

83

11/84
6/83
9/84
10/84

65
65

12/84
12/84

20

40

40
20

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
S
Salaries—See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars. ...
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars.
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices—See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government—See Government.
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order..
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on
order, change
Surplus—See Government?

Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields

Current issue
Series <PaEe numbers)
number Charts Tables

213

69
57
56
973
77
59
54

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description

10/84

24

9/84
11/84
11/84
1/85
11/84
12/84
12/84

17
17
17
37
17
20
20

22

67
65
65
76
68
65
65

295
298
290
292
293

46
46
46
46
46

82
83
82
82
83

11/84
11/84
11/84
11/84
11/84

26
48
48
48
48

98
99
588

28

69

13,28

69

54

91

3/84
3/84
6/84

51
25
17

967
23

37'
28

79
75
69

1/85
1/85

25
25

19
968
78

13,28

69
75
68

1/84
6/83
6/84

25
25
17

14,22

22
38
15,27

22

37
27

6/84

114
115

34
34

72
73

8/83
8/83

35
35

91
60
5
962
3

15,18
16
12,16
36

62
61
61
74

2/84
2/84
1/85
1/85
8/81

446
445
447
444
37
4

51
51
51
51
18,51

89
89
89
62,89

2/84
2/84
2/84
2/84
2/84
8/81

44
45
43

18
18
18

62
62
62

2/84
4/84
2/84

8
9

561
96
25

54
21
21

91
64
64

6/84
6/84
6/84

15
15
15

107
108

31
31

71
71

12.21

64

9/84
9/84
5/83

30
30

32

1

12,16

961

36'

61
77
74

U
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average. .
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Number unemployed, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age.
Females 20 years and over.
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over.
Total unemployed. , .
Quit rate, manufacturing..
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over.
Insured unemployment
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change. .
United Kingdom—See International comparisons.

Velocity of money
GNP to money supply M l , ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio.
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
. .
W
Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany—See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes.
Workweek of manufacturing production workers
Average workweek
Components
Diffusion index

17

7/84
7/84

NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.




113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not' reflect relationships or order among the
series. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data;
"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are
referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System.

Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(23,66)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current
dollars (M).-Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).-Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)

Following the source for each series is an indication of the
pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding
Guide" also lists chart aul table page numbers for each
series.

13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
(23,65)

I-A. Composite Indexes

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes
series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,106, 111)
(M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all
manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)

913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments
(includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies ( M ) . American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National
Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,71)
34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(29,70)
35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(29,70)
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972
dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(13,26,68)
37. Number of persons unemployed, tabor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)
38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and
on order, manufacturing (M).-Source 2
(26,68)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).-American Bankers
Association
(33,72)
40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries—mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Source 3
(14,17,62)

914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).~
Source 1
(28,69)

915. Composite index of inventory investment and
purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19, 26,
80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)

18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(28,69)

43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources 2 and 3(18,62)

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and
over(M).-Sources2 and 3
(18,62)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-U.S. Department of Labor, Employment
and Training Administration
(18,62)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(16,61)

46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—
The Conference Board
(16, 61)

22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
income (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)

47. Index of industrial production, total (M).-Source
4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials
(M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this
series may not be reproduced without written permission
from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)
24. Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).-Source
2
(23,66)

48. Employee-hours in nonagricultural
(M).-Source 3

917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes
series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(includes series 4 1 , 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).-Source
1
(11.60)

1-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M),—Source 3
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3
5. Average weekly initial claims for
insurance, State programs (M).--U.S.
Labor, Employment and Training
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
Analysis

unemployment
Department of
Administration;
of Economic
(12,16,61)

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in current dollars (M) -Source 2(21,64,77)
7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(21,64)
8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(12,21,64)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by

114



25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
business sector (Q).-Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)
27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources
1, 2, and 3
(23,66)
28. New private housing units started, total (M).-Source
2
(25,67)
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q)-Source
1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving
slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)

42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(17,62)

establishments
(17,39,61)

49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source
1

(19,63)

53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and
3
(19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2

(22,65)

55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).~
Source 1
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade safes in current dollars (M).~
Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars ( M ) , Sources 1, 2, and 3
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).-University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
2, and 3
(22,65)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
60.

Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)
( M ) . - S o u r c e s 1, 2, 3, and The Conference
Board
(16,61)

61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)
62.

Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of
industrial production, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1
and 4
(15,30,70)

86.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1(25,67)

87.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
structures,,in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

88.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q).~
Source 1
(25,67)

Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing-about
600 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(35,75)

961.

Diffusion index of average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing—20 industries (M).-Sources 1
and 3
(36,74,77)

962.

Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).-Source 1
and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(36,74)

963.

Diffusion index of number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls-172-186 industries ( M ) . Source 3
(36,74)

65.

Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Source
2
(27,68)

94.

Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)

95.

Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
(M)-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)

96.

Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM),-Source 2
(21,64)

97.

Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (EOQ).-The Conference Board
(24,66)

98.

Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and
intermediate materials (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (28,69)

Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).-Source
4

(35,73)

Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic
product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio
of current-dollar compensation of employees to real
gross corporate product (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)
Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sates and
business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).-Source
2
(24,67)
Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars
(E0M>.—Sources 1, 2, and 3

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current
dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(35,73)

965.

(13,28,69)
101.

102.

Index of industrial production,
manufactures (M).-Source 4

(20,63)

966.

Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)

967.

Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials—
13 industrial materials (M).-Sources 1, 3, and
Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(35,75,79)

968.

Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—
46-82 industries (M) .-Standard & Poor's Corporation
(37,75)

970.

Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, total—21 industries (Q).-Source
1
(38,76)

971.

Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing-about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

972.

Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

973.

Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and tradeabout 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

105.

Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1,3,
and 4
(31,71)

106.

Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3,
and 4
(13,31,71)
Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)

75.

Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).—
Source 4
(22,65)

108.

Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)

76.

Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(24,67)

109.

Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Source
4
(35,73)

77.

Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales
(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total
(M).Sources 1, 2, and 3
(15,27,68)

110.

Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)

78.

Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2
(27,68)

111.

Change in credit outstanding (business and consumer
borrowing) (M).—Sources 1, 4, and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board
(13,32,72)

79.

Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars

112.

Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1 and 4
(32,72)

113.

Net chance in consumer installment credit (M)-Source
4
(32,72)

(29,69)

Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(29,69)

114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Source 4
(34,72)

81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate
domestic income (Q).-Source 1
(29,70)

115.

Yield on long-term Treasury
Department of the Treasury

82.

Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).-Source
4
(20,64)

116.

Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
( M ) . - C i t i b a n k and U.S. Department of the
Treasury
(34,73)

83.

Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).—
Source 1
(20,64)

117.

Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)

84.

Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).-Source
4
(20,64)

118.

85.

Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4

Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages ( M ) - U . S .
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration
(34,73)




(31,71)

bonds

(M).-U.S.
(34,73)

Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries
(M).-Sources 1 and 4

104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M),-Sources
1 and 4
(31,71)

107.

(Q).-Source 1

Diffusion index of newly approved capital
appropriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries
(Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4
(15,35,73)

nondurable
(20,63)

80.

964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers1 new orders,
durable goods industries— 34-35 industries ( M ) . Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)

Index of industrial production, durable manufactures
(M).-Source 4

74.

99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed) (M).—
Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.

(27,68)

71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)

73.

Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)

960.

Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).—Source 4
(33,72)

72.

951.

Ratio, civilian employment to total population of
working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(17, 62)

93.

70.

Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)

90.

Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q),-Source 1
.
(30,47,70,83)

69.

950.

Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)

64.

68.

1-C. Diffusion Indexes

952.

91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(15,18,62)

67.

(34,72)

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).—
Source 3
(30,70)

(35,73)

Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4

89.

63.

66. Consumer installment credit (EOM).-Source 4

119.

(37,75,78)

974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing
and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
975.

Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)

976.

Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

115

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about
400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission). This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
978. Diffusion index of soiling prices, retail trade—about 400
businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source

(26, 42, 68, 81)

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(40,80)
213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(40,80)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)
223. Personal income in current dollars (M).-Source
1
(40,63)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(40,80)
225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(40,80)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent
of gross national product (Q) —Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in current dollars (Q)-Source 1
(41,81)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q).—Source 1
*
(41,81)
238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(42,81)

116




292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1

248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential,
as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)

295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits plus
capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (Q).-Source
1
(46,82)

(46,82)

293. Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of
disposable personal income (Q).-Source 1 (46,83)

249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as
a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)

298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).—Source
1
(46,83)

250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source

il-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity

1

11-A. National Income and Product
1

247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national
product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)

(44,82)

251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross
national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44,82)
255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q)-Source 1 (44,82)
257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product ( Q ) Source 1
(48,84)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Source
3
(49,59,84,95)
322. Index of consumer prices, food (M),-Source 3(49,84)
330. Index of producer prices, all commodities (M).-Source
3
(48,85)
331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for further
processing (M).-Source 3
(48,85)
332. Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
333. Index of producer prices, capital equipment ( M ) . Source 3
(48,86)
334. Index of producer prices, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Index of producer prices, Industrial commodities (M), Source 3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy-adjusted for overtime (in
manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,
and seasonally (M)-Source 3
(49,87)

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as
a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81)
267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,87)

268. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product ( Q ) . Source 1
(47,83)

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)

280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) first year changes (Q).-Source
3
(50,88)

(45,82)

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)

341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).—Source
3
(49,87)

349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).~
Source 3
(50,88)
358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(47,82)

370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)
441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey ( M ) . Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1

(45,82)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income ( Q ) . Source 1
(47,83)
290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)

Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemptoyment

442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey ( M ) . Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

i U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING O F F I C E ; 198b

461-08^/310

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
445.

Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

565.

National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)

446.

Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

570.

447.

Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force
survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

Employment in defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,91)

577,

Defense Department personnel, military, active duty
(EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Washington Headquarters Services
(55,91)

578.

Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hire
employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91)

580.

Defense Department net outlays, military functions and
military assistance (M).-U.S. Department of Defense,
OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and
Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(54,91)

448.

Number employed, part-time workers for economic
reasons, labor force survey (M).—Sources 2 and

3

(51,89)

451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
452.

Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

453.

Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19
years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source, 1
(52,90)

602.

502.

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

Federal Government expenditures; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90)

517.

525.

543.

721.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)

722.

United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—
Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)

723.

Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)

725.

West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)

726.

France, index of industrial production (M). Institut
National de ta Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)

727.

Italy, index of industrial production ( M ) . - Istituto
Centraie di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)

728.

Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)

732.

United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).—
Department of Employment (London); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis

Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—
U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90)
Defense Department military prime contract awards for
work performed in the United States (M).-U.S.
Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington
Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial
Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)

Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)

(59,95)

606.

Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

733.

Canada, index of consumer prices (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)

612.

General imports, total (M).-Source 2

735.

West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis

736.

France, index of consumer prices (M),—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(59,95)

737.

Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Istituto Centraie di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)

738.

Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)

742.

United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)

743.

Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Statistics Canada
(Ottawa)
(59,96)

511. State and local government receipts; national income
and product accounts (Q).—Source 1
(52,90)
State and local government expenditures; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90)

(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

United States, index of consumer prices, all items
(M).-Source 3
(48,59,84,95)

ME. U.S. International Transactions

501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

512.

(Ml).- Source 4
320.

588. Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(M).-Source 2
(54,91)

Il-D. Government Activities
500.

47. United States, index of industrial production, total

(56,92)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products ( M ) . Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
616.

Imports of automobiles and parts (M),-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

618.

Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

620.

Merchandise imports,
(Q).-Source 1

622.

Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source 1 (57,93)

651. Income on U.S.
1
652.

adjusted,

excluding

investments abroad

(59,95)

military
(57,93)

(Q).-Source
(57,93)

Income on foreign investments in the United States

(Q).-Source 1

(57,93)

548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products
( M ) . - Source 2
(53,90)

667.

Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1(57,93)

557.

668.

Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

745.

West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)

669.

Imports of goods and services, total (Q).-Source

746.

France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

747.

Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d' Italia
(Rome)
(59,96)

748.

Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)

Output of defense and space equipment ( M ) . - Source

4

(54,91)

559. Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
561. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)




1

r

.

(57,93)

Il-F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96)

(59,96)

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