Full text of Business Conditions Digest : January 1984
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Allan H. Young, Deputy Director
George R. Green, Acting Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This repoitt is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources
at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald EL Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
John H,. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
George R» Green, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Helmut F, Wendel, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects< The report's contents were based
largely on the ist of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were adc|ed at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at alLturns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important 'economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.
Annual subscription price: $55.00. domestic,
$68.75 foreign. Single copy price: $5.50 domestic, $6.90 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
.'available, on request. Address correspondence
Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or taggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
New Features and Changes for This Issue
BCII
iii
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
JANUARY 1 9 8 4
Data Through December
Volume 24, Number 1
PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al
A2
A3
A4
COMPOSITE INDEXES A N D
THEIR COMPONENTS
Olhart
Table
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components
10
12
14
15
60
—
—
—
16
19
21
23
26
28
31
61
63
64
65
68
69
71
36
—
39
74
77
—
< .. .
•. ..
:
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
Employmentand Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
...
....
DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Cl
C2
C3
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change
The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds
(
for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office *f Management
and Budget through April 1, 19815.
IICII
PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
Chart
Table
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83
Pr*ice Movements
Wages and Productivity
48
49
84
87
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
51
89
(3OVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators
52
53
90
90
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements
56
57
92
93
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices
58
59
59
94
95
96
GIMP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gjross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income
PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Bl
B2
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
PART 111. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors (December 1983 issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1983 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (June 1983 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
97
104
110
114
Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
Changes in this issue are as follows:
result in revisions of
data, additions or
1. The series on employment and unemployment iiffi the
civilian labor force (series 37, 42-44, 60, 90, 91, 441, 442,
444-448, and 451-453) have been revised by the sourti£ agency
for the period 1979 to date. These revisions reflect the
application of updated seasonal adjustment factors.
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau d*f Labor
Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics,
Division of Employment and Unemployment Analysis.
2. The series on industrial production in the United
Kingdom (series 722) has been revised by the source agency
for the period 1963 to date.
Information concerning this revision may be obtained
from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Economic and Financial Statistics Section, 2 rue AndrePascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France.
3. Appendix C contains historical data for series 19,
58, 517, 577, 578, 742, 743, 745-748, 910, 920, and 930.
4. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series
5, 29, 30, 43, 47, and 50.
The February issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on March 5.
tn
indexes, etc.
SIX BEA PROJECTS
FOR ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
A monthly report for analyzing
economic fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together many of the economic time series most useful to business analysts and
forecasters. In the cyclical indicators section, each of about 110 business cycle indicators is assigned
a three-way timing classification according to its cyclical behavior at peaks, troughs, and all turns.
This section also includes important analytical measures, such as composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators and selected diffusion indexes. A second section contains other important economic data on prices, wages, productivity, government and defense-related activities, U.S. international transactions, and international comparisons.
About 300 time series are shown in analytical graphs that help to evaluate business conditions and
prospects. Current data are shown in accompanying tables. Appendixes provide historical data,
seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, cyclical comparisons, and other useful information. A computer tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.
HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS A reference volume containing valuable background information for users of Business Conditions Digest*
This recurrent report provides descriptive and analytical information on the economic time series
presented monthly in Business Conditions Digest Included are series descriptions, historical
data, and measures of variability. For the cyclical indicators and composite indexes, special tables
show detailed scoring measures and average timing at cyclical peaks and troughs. Verbal and
algebraic explanations of the composite index methodology are also provided.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH
A report for the study of economic
trends over a long span of years: 1860-1970.
This report provides a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy by presenting relevant
statistica time series in easy-to-follow analytical charts and convenient data tables. It is a basic
research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students, bringing together in
one volume a complete statistical basis for the study of long-term economic trends. A computer tape
file of the time series included in the report is available for purchase.
COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
The source
statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by BEA in its analysis of
time series are available on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL A D J U S T M E N T PROGRAMS—Two variants of the Census computer program
measure and analyze seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular fluctuations. They are particularly
useful in analyzing economic fluctuations that take place within a year. The X41 variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as
multiplicative adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.
INDEX PROGRAM—This program computes composite and diffusion indexes and summary
measures; of the properties of each index.
T I M E SERIES PROCESSOR—This program, through simple commands, performs a variety of
arithmetic, statistical, and manipulative operations on time series data.
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
A monthly report for analyzing
current economic developments.
This report provides a useful combination of current data for nearly 2,000 statistical series and
significant articles analyzing economic developments. These data and analyses include such areas as
the national income and product accounts, the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment
expenditures, regional personal income, and the input-output accounts.
BUSINESS STATISTICS
For further information (including prices and ordering instructions) on any of these items,
please write to tJie Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.
20230.
A biennial reference volume containing
statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.
This report provides historical data back to 1947 for nearly 2,600 time series. The series are accompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and addresses of organizations that provide the basic
data for the series.
IV
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1959, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1972.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday
adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the tent "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been Made.
IVrost of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for Ithe most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed
as a result of revisions in important economic
time series. The dates shown in this publication
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980. and
1981-82.
Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade..While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conformity to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD)
The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the
1
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A, Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
x. Economic
\Process
Cyclical V
Timimg N^
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(62 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIQENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(18 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
u
<
(8 )series)
IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES,COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)
VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)
New and
unfilled orders
and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption
(2 series)
Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
inventory
Investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
{1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profits and
profit
margins
{7 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)
Money flows
(3 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 ser^s)
1 nterest rates
(1 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)
Backlog of
investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business
Investment
expenditures
(5 series)
1.
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)
III.
Marginal
empioyment
adjustments
(6 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(X series)
Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)
CONSUMPTION,
f RADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)
Duration of
unemployment
(2 series)
Business
Investment
expenditures
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Trade
(1 series)
velocity of
money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(1 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
1 nterest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding
debt
(3 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profit share
(1 series)
(nterest rates
( l series)
B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
N. Economic
NProcess
CyclicatV
Timing N.
LEADING fLJ
INDICATORS
(47 series)
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
ROUGHLY
(2 series)
COINCIDENT(C) Comprehensive
INDICATORS
employment
(23 series)
(4 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(40 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
and duration
of
unemployment
(5 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(1 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES,COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)
VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(2 series)
Prof Its and
profit margins
(6 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)
Money flows
(2 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Profits
(2 series)
Money flow
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(I series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(3 series)
Industrial
production
(1 series)
New and unfilled
orders and
deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)
Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
{4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)
Consumption
and trade
Business
investment
commitments
(1 series)
Unfilled orders
(1 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(6 series)
(3 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-establish'trd differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident
indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of. the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 111 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,
August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures/and scores, is provided in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.
Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
This section contains measures of the civilian
in
the physical volume of inventories held by
This part is divided into six sections which cover
labor force and its major components: Total
private
business.
The
former
include
all
private
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
measuring various aspects of economic activity. purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for The number of unemployed is subdivided into
tenant
or
owner
occupancy.
Net
purchases
of
used
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others goods ate also included.
of worker. Also included are data on participation
Government
purchases
of
goods
and
services
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
(A4)
is
the
compensation
of
government
employees
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
force.
or to selected foreign countries. The represented and purchases from business and from abroad. It
variables include incomes, outputs, and excludes transfer payments, interest paid by Section D. Government Activities
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surlabor resources; government receipts, investment by government enterprises but excludes
their current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
land and financial assets.
government. Also shown^ is a selection of series
key foreign countries.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense
Indicators^
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which
Section A. National Income and Product
of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national
The national income and product accounts,
included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to
compiled by BE.A, summarize both receipts and
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production,
final expenditures for the personal, business,
international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at
Section Al shows the gross national product
originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the
final sales, ard personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
income. The four major components of the gross
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede pronational product—personal consumption the factor costs of the goods and services production, such as contract awards and new orders,
expenditures,, gross private domestic investment,
duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense
government purchases of goods and services, and
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
coincide with production, such as employment, and
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as
section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period.
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving, shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
series. The national income and product accounts,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
briefly defined below, are described more fully in
profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
government surplus or deficit.
January 1976,
This group includes monthly series on exports
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
major expenditure components of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also
labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and
United States, before deduction of allowances for
components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income.
most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income.
economic output Final sales is GNP less change in
Section F. International Comparisons
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
nations with which we have important trade
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
income, rental income of persons, dividends, these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerpersonal interest income, and transfer payments, the national iflcome and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corless personal contributions for social insurance.
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inDisposable personal income is the personal
reflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European
income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure Categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inuct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically senpayments to government.
sitive output measures for large parts of the
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1972.
The group of series on wages and productivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price ingoods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1972) provide
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the
and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1972) tend to be significant as
dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also inleading indicators.
rates of change for most of these measures.
cluded.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (?) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.
Basic Data
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)
Dotted line indicates anticipated data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).
Various scales are used to
Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.
Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Rates of Change
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.
Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.
Solid tine with platting points
indicates percent changes over
3-or 4-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r -
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data2
Unit
of
measure
1
Series title and timing classification
Percent change
Annual averagf
2dQ
1983
1982
3dQ
1983
4th Q
1983
Oct.
1983
Nov.
1983
Dec.
1983
Oct.
to
Nov.
1983
Dec.
1983
2d Q
to
3dQ
1983
3dQ
to
4th Q
1983
Nov.
I. CYCLICAL, INDICATORS
A. C o m p o s i t e I n d e x e s
910.
920.
930.
940.
Twelve leading indicators
Four rougliy coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
913. Marginal employment adjustments
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917. Money and financial flows
L,L,L... 1967 — 100....
CtC,C...
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
do
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
L.L.L...
L,L,I
L.L.L...
L,L,L...
do..,
do,.,
....do...
...do...
....do...
136.3
13 6.3
123.0
110.9
156.0
139.7
111.8
125.1
154.8
137.8
111.5
123.6
159.1
141.5
110.4
128.2
162.3
145.5
110.2
132.0
162.2
144.3
109.8
131.4
161.9
145.6
109.9
132.5
162.9
146.5
110.8
132.2
-0.2
0.9
0.1
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.8
-0.2
2.8
2.7
-1.0
3.7
2.0
2.8
-0.2
3.0
NA
104.3
97.2
93.7
122.8
NA
108.7
102.8
NA
131.7
NA
109.2
102.1
104.3
130.7
NA
109.2
104.1
107.1
132.8
NA
109.8
105.5
NA
134.1
NA
110.6
105. 5
107.6
132.4
NA
109.9
105.2
107.1
133.6
NA
108.8
105.8
NA
136.2
NA
-0.6
-0.3
-0.5
0,9
NA
-1.0
0.6
NA
1,9
NA
0.
2.0
2.7
1.6
NA
0.5
1.3
NA
1.0
38.9
2.3
578
40.1
3.0
429
40.1
2.8
443
40.4
3.1
392
40.6
3.3
393
40.6
3.3
398
40.6
3,3
402
40.5
3.4
380
0.
0.
-1.0
-0.2
0.1
5.5
0.7
0.3
11.5
0.5
0.2
-0.3
0.243
86
0.271
96
0.360
0.392
121
0.026
87
6.1
0.048
12.6
17.3
165.84
96,125
89,596
23,907
167.63
91,450
89,986
23,649
166.81
96,622
89,452
23,341
168.74
98,110
90,250
23,830
170.40
99,221
91,381
24,308
170.44
98,730
91,087
24,168
169.66
99,349
91,413
24,322
171.10
99,585
91,644
24,434
-0.5
0.6
0.4
0.6
0
0.2
0.3
0
1.2
1.5
0.9
2.1
1.0
1.1
1.3
2.0
57.05
57.15
56.79
57.47
57.86
57.61
57,92
58.05
0.31
0.13
0.68
10,678 10,717 11,240 10,529
9.4
9.7
9.6
10.1
4.6
3.4
4.1
3.8
15.6
20.5
20.3
20.0
3.2
3.7
4.0
3.8
9, 507
8.5
3.2
20.0
3.1
9,896
8.8
3.3
20.1
3.3
9,429
8.4
3.2
20.2
3.1
9,195
8.2
3.2
19.6
3.0
4.7
0.4
0.1
-0.5
0.2
2,5
0.2
0.
3.0
0.1
6.3
0.7
0.7
-1.0
0.3
1485.4 1534.8 1525.1 1553.4 1570.5
1256.1 1284.3 1277.2 1286.6 1310.4 1302.8 1310.4 1317.9
1073.8 1095.7 1086.4 1099.0 1122.0 1116.6 1121.6 1127.7
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.5
1.9
0.7
1.2
0.1
1.9
0.5
0.7
0.
5.1
6.1
4.4
2.5
B. C y c l i c ^ Indicators by Economic Process
B l . E m p l o y m e n t and U n e m p l o y m e n t
Marginal Employmont Adjustments:
* 1 . Average worliweek, prod, workers, mfg
21. Avg, weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg,3
*5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted4)
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-WJIrated advertising to unemployment3
46, Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment;
48. Employee-hoius in nonagri. establishments
42. Persons engaied in nonagri. activities
*41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
40. Employees in mining, mfg., construction
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population
of working age1
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Total unemployed (inverted*)
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted4)1
45. Avg. weekly insired unemployment rate (inv.T
•91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted*)
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3
L,L,L.... Hours
L,C.I
do....
L,C,L... Thousands..
L,Lg,U.... Ratio
L,Lg,lL.. 1967 = 100....
U,C,C... A.r., bil. hrs
U,C,C... Thousands
C,C,C...
do
....do
L,C,IL..
U,Lg,U.... Percent
L.Lg.U,...
L,Lg,U....
L,Lg,U....
Lg.Lg.Lg....
Lg.Lj.Lg....
Thousands...
Percent
do
Weeks
Percent
0.362
115
9.7
0.9
0.2
2.4
0.6
B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. GNP in 1972 dollars
5Z Personal income ,n 1972 dollars
•51. Pers. income less transfer pay,, 1972 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and
construction, 1972 dollars
C.C.C....
Industrial Production:
•47. Industrial production, total
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial produtti9n,.nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars
C.C.C.. 1967 = 100...
C,C,C.. .. . d o . . . .
C,L,L.
do. .
C,C,C. A.r., bil. dol...
Capacity Utilization:
83. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEA3
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB3
84, Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRBJ
L,C,U....
L.C.U....
C,C,C... A-r.. bil. dol...
C,C,C...
do
C,C,C
do
do
Percent
.do
do
216.2
217.7
216.0
220.0
222.3
138.6
124.7
156.2
661.6
147.7
134.6
16B.5
687.0
144.5
131.1
165.5
681.8
151.3
139.1
172.7
699.0
156.0
144.0
176.1
710.4
70
71.1
70.0
NA
75.3
75.2
73
73.8
73.5
76
77.4
77.5
NA
79.2
79.8
155.0
143.0
175.8
156.1
144.0
176.3
156.9
145,0
176.3
0.7
0.7
0.3
2.0
3
3.6
4.0
NA
1.8
2.3
4.2
3.4
-0.77
2.2
6
6.0
5.7
1.
0.92
3.0
5
NA
NA
1.2
2.8
2.3
5.8
-0.1
B 3 . C o n s u m p t i o n , T r a d e , O r d e r s , a n d Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. New orders, durable goods
7. New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars
*8. New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 dol
25. Change in unfilled: orders, durable goods3
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance3 @
L.L.L....
87.73
89.74 95.10
86.15
75.03
93.37 96.52 95.42
L,L,L...
do
39.15. 40.32
39.81
36.40 37,62 39.76
32.48
36.96
...do
L.L.I
35.95
35.38 36.03 3 5.64 36,50
29.45
34.11
33.38
...do
L,L,I
3.14
5.14
4.34 -0.06
-1.80
2.48
2.22
2.99
L,Lg,U.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 291.76 321.46 305.37 312.05 321.46 317.18 321.52 321,46
L.L.L... Percent
54
63
64
59
37
67
58
52
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and tude sales, 1972 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stoics, 1972 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment <§>
C,C,C...
C.C.C....
C.L.C....
C,L,U....
U.L.U....
L.C.C....
L.L.I
Bil. dol
344.11
do
152.07
1967 = 100
142.6
Bil. dol
89.64
....do
44.68
A.r., bil. dol
73.9
J Q 1966 = 100
68.0
3.4
3.0
2.4
-0.80
1.4
-5
-1.1
-1.3
-1.5
-4.40
0.
1.3
1.6
0.4
1.1
1.1
NA
NA
0.6
0,1
-0.2
2.0
3.4
3,5
2.1
3.9
1.2
0.3
1.2
0.1
115.1
-0.8
NA
-1.6
NA
0.6
1.2
1.4
NA
13.93
24.88
-8.4
-0.3
1.8
-3.1
1.0
4.2
7.9
12.83
-9.6
5.3
-0.3
NA 362.86 375.63
NA 382,21 387.24
NA
JJA 160.04 163.43
NA 164.90 167.51
NA
157.8
151.9
157.9
157.1
158.7
150.2
156.1
97.82 97.68 98.84 101.63 100.84 101.98 102.06
47.59 47.80 47.95 49.05 48.7 2 49.2 7 49.16
90.6
92.5
97.9
91.4
94.2
87,5
91.6
91.5
89.3
91.1
91.5
a
ii.Q
B 4 . Fixed C a p i t a l I n v e s t m e n t
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12, Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
*20. Contracts and orders, plan! and equipment,
1972 dollars
24. New orders, capital goods indus., nondefense
27. New orders, capital goods industries,
nondefense, 1972 dollars
L.L.L... 1967 = 100
L.L.L... Number
L.L.L... Bil. dol
L,L,L.
L,L,L..
L.L.L...
do
....do
114.4
50,035 50,625
47,153
116.7
24.80
26.76
27.61
26.95
28.75
30.16
12.41
20.64
13,63
22.83
14.24
23.04
13.80
23.27
14.38
25.11
15.25
26.00
12.28
-5.1
13.97
24.44
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data*
Unit
of
measure
Series title and timing classification1
Percent change
Annual average
2dQ
1983
3dQ
1983
4th Q
1983
65.41
22.59
73.40
69.10
NA
NA
Oct.
1983
Nov.
1983
Dec.
1983
Oct.
to
Nov.
Nov.
1983
Dec.
1983
2dQ
to
3dQ
1983
3dQ
4th Q
1983
I. CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S — C o n .
B 4 . Fixed C a p i t a l I n v e s t m e n t — C o n .
Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9, Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.1*
L,CrU. Mil.sq.ft
U,Lg,U.... til. dol
C,Lg,Lg... Bil. dol., EOP .
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Business expend., new plant and equipment
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars
Residential Construction Commitments and investment:
28. New private housing units started, total
*29. New building permits, private housing
89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dollars
57.38
21.28
70.76
C,Lg,Lg.... A.r., bil. dol...
316.43
do
C,Lg,Lg....
C,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100...
C,Lg,C... A.r., bil. dol...
325.76
157.9
166.1
L,L,L... A.r., thousands.
L,l,L... 1967-100
L.L.I A.r., bil.dol
1,061
80.7
37.8
63.48
NA
NA
60.31
20.63
71.16
71.35
8.5
9.5
3.1
293.46 304.70 321.60
5.6
NA
NA
3.8
NA 316.84 324.91
153.2 148.3 156.2
168.0 163.0 170.1
NA 323.58 340.60
163.9 161.5 164.4
178.9
NA
165.8
5.3
1.8
NA
0.9
2.5
5.3
4.4
NA
4.9
5.2
1,703
128.5
52.7
1,692
129.8
56.1
1,667
125.1
6.1
0.7
-5.0
-5.7
6.4
0.2
8.0
-5.5
-2.4
-1.2
1,683
132.8
52.6
1,791
133.0
56.8
-5.4
3.8
-2.40
9.2
1.15
11.18
33.4
2.42
1,654
131.7
1,755
132.6
B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars3
*36. Change in inventories on hand and on order,
1972 dollars (smoothed6)3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories3
38. Change in materials on hand and on order3
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book values
70. Mfg. and trade inventories, 1972 dollars'
65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods*
*77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales, mfg.
and trade3
78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on
order, mfg.5
do..
-9.4
L,L,L...
...do..
L,L,L...
L,L,t Bil. do!
-14.23
-14.2
-2.12
. L,LtL...
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ., 511.94
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
261.21
do
lg,Lg,Lg..~
NA
NA
NA
NA 505.52 513.88
NA 257.05 259.29
85.07
1.61
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio
L,Lg,Lg....
I. dol., EOP .,
9.2
NA
NA
NA
21.34
25,4
2.27
20.33
24.0
1.90
NA
NA
NA
-1.01
-1.4
-0.37
NA
NA
NA
NA 515.00 518.00
NA 259.59 260.41
82.12
NA
NA
NA
0.6
0.3
NA
NA
NA
82.09
NA
1.75
1.58
196.07
209.27
82.05
-0.1
1.55
-0.02
13.58
24.2
1.27
1.7.
0.9
0.2,
NA
NA
NA
NA
1.57
NA 211.54
NA
NA
NA
213.44
3.6
NA
-1.71
4.5
-0.50
0.61
5.9
-0.27
0.9
B6, Prices, Costs, a n d Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials1
23. Spot market prices, raw industrials (g)
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks @
L,L,L... Percent
U,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... Percent
,. L,L,L.
1941-43 = 10.,
-0.38
242.5
-0.67
1.66
251.7
1.49
-0.05
263.0
0.99
0.56
278.5
0.72
0.77
273.4
0.72
0.76
279.8
0.72
119.71 160.41 162.73 165.51 165.75 167.65
Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars
79. Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
1972 dollars
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
t,L,L. A.r., bil. dol...
do
L,L,L.
do
L.C.L.
do
L,C,L.
L,L,L. Cents
L,L,L. 1977 = 100...
115.1
55.6
105.6
51.1
3.4
96.2
Cash Flows:
34. Net cash flow, corporate
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars
L.L.L.
L,L,L.
A.r., bil. dol..
...do
267.3
125.2
1977 = 100...
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, private business sector
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic
product, nonfin. corporations
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
a) Actual data
*b) Actual data as percent of trend
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income'
,
1.24
258.5
1.03
129.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
97.4
127.2
60.6
142.2
67.9
4.0
97.6
0.16
282.4
0.72
-0.01
2.3
0.
-0.60
0.9
0.
164.36
144.1
68.5
163.4
77.8
4.4
98.0
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
97.9
13.3
13.0
14.9
14.6
0.4
0.4
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-0.1
160.4
NA
NA
9.8
9.9
NA
NA
310.6
153.3
157.1
156.0
156.9
- Lg,Lg,Lg.. Dollars
1.397
1.420
1.416
1.412
NA
• Lg,Lg,Lg.. 1967 = 100...
- Lg.Lg.LB-- Percent
228.0
101.0
225.8
92.6
227.4
94.2
222.8
90.5
221.9
88.4
221.5
88.8
222.2
88.5
222.1
87.9
0.3
-0.3
0.
-0.6
-2.0
-3.7
-0.4
-2.1
0.08
0.60
NA
213.9
897.5
0.54
0.46
NA
214.5
899.3
-0.07
-0.16
NA
-0.2
0.3
0.46
-0.14
NA
0.3
0.2
-0.59
-0.22
0.03
1.1
0.8
-0.09
0.12
NA
-0.6
0.6
.. l*Lg,Lg..
- Lg,Lg,Lg..
158.8
0.6
-0.3
76.1
B7. M o n e y and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply (Ml) 3
102. Change in money supply (M2) 3
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed6)3....
105. Money supply ( M l ) , 1972 dollars
*106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (Ml) 3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2)3
Credit Flows:
33. Change in mortgage debt3
112. Change in business loans3
113. Change in consumer installment credit3 .
•111. Change in credit outstanding3 .
.
110. Total private borrowing
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.<) ©
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans <inv.<)3S
.
....do..
... L.L.L.
do..
. L.C.U..
....do..
... L,L,L.
.. L.L.L. Bil. dol
.. L,L,L.
....do..
0.69
0.73
0.86
198.5
813.9
0.72
0.91
NA
213.2
886.7
0.94
0.71
0.85
213.4
885.2
0.35
0.49
0.88
215.7
892.1
0.26
0.61
NA
214.3
897.2
0.15
0.76
0.77
214.4
894.8
Ratio
....do..
6.711
1.373
6.517
1.298
6.477
1.295
6.511
1.293
6.611
1.304
1.301
NA - 0 . 6 2 49.77
5.03 -25.33
4:12
NA 37.49 42.41
0.4
5.3
6.5
NA 386.59 361.39
NA
28.84
NA
12.5
NA
69.68
-1.18
58.62
7.8
NA
19.96
56.05
10.6
NA
67.73
NA
19.2
NA
21.14
-2.57
2.8
NA
47 .77
NA
8.6
50.39
29.45
4.92
6.1
-6.5
NA
24.72
NA
6.0
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.04
NA
NA
C,C,C.
C,Lg,C.
L,L,L. A.r., bil. dol.
.do
L,L,L
.do.
. L,L,L
L,L,L. A.r., percent.
L,L,L A.r., bil. dol.
L.L.L..
L,L,L.
Mil. dol
Percent, EOP .
-7.01
16.79
13.04
1.4
262.99
NA
2.18
NA
NA
NA
1.92
NA
1.88
0.034
1.308
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Unit
of
measure
1
Series title and timing classification
Percent change
Annual average
Oct.
2dQ
3dQ
4th Q
1983
1983
1983
Oct.
1983
Nov.
1983
Dec.
1983
Nov.
Nov.
1983
2dQ
to
3dQ
1983
3dQ
to
4th Q
1983
I. CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S — C o n .
B7. M o n e y a n d C r e d i t — C o n .
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted1)3 ©
94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve 3 ©
1_,U,U... Mil. dol
...do...,
L,Lg,U...
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate 3 ©
L,Lg,Lg..
114, Treasury bill rate 3 ©
CtLg,Lg
3
116. Corporate band yields ©
..
lg,Lg,Lg
115. Treasury bojid yields 3 ©
,
, . .
C,Lg,lg
117. Municipal bond yields 3 ©
.
. U,l_g,Lg
3
118. Mortgage yiulds, residential ©
Lg,Lg,Lg.,
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3 ©
Lg.Lg.Lg..
•109, Average prine rate charged by banks1 ©
Lg,Lg,Lg.
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit5
72, Commercial iird industrial loans outstanding
•101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
1972 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer install, credit to pers. income3
Percent.. .
. do.
.do..
do...
.do.
. do .,
do
..do...
-692
1,052
1,034
-735
1,203
-982
1,465
-355
832
-332
837
-383
912
-350
748
12.26
10.72
14.68
12.23
11.66
15,30
14.69
14.86
9.09
8.62
12.25
10.84
9.51
13.11
10.64
10.79
8.80
8.42
11.57
10.35
9.23
12,62
10.31
10.50
9.46
9.19
12.68
11.26
9.61
13.85
11.09
10.80
9.43
8.79
12.76
11.32
9.77
13.24
10.97
11.00
9.48
8.71
12.54
11.21
9.66
9.34
8.71
12.86
11.32
9.75
13.23
9.47
8.96
12.87
11.44
9.89
13.25
11.00
11.00
370.22 374.89
262.86
Lg,Lg,Lg... Bil. dol., EOP .
Lg,Lg,lg.., Bil. dol
103.43 103.23 102.16 102.84 101.56 102.44 104.52
13.16 13.23
12.93
do
Lg.Lg.LgLg,Lg,Lg... Percent
-0.14
0.
0.32
0.11
0.09
-33
-164
247
262
-627
-633
0.13
0.25
0.01
0.12
0.14
0.02
0.66
0.77
1.11
0.91
0.38
1,23
0.78
0.30
-0.03
-0.40
0.08
0,06
0.16
0.
-0.12
0.20
1.3
0.6
NA
2.1
3.0
-0.1
1.2
0.9
0.07
2.0
NA
-1.0
0.20
0,7
NA
0.2
0
0
-0.2
0.1
0.
0.4
0.1
0.
1.1
0.
0.2
0.2
0.8
1.2
0
0
1.0
1.0
0.3
1.6
0.8
0.8
1.0
0
-0.1
1.0
0
0
1.3
1.1
0.5
0,5
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
B l . Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
335.
331.
332.
333.
334.
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Consumer price index (CPI), all items ©
Change in CPI, all items, S/A3
CPI, food
. . .
Producer price index (PPI), all commodities © .
1
PPI, industria commodities © .
PPI, crude materials
PPI, intermediate m a t e r i a l s . . .
. . . .
PPI, capital equipment
. ..
PPI, finished cortsumttr goods
B2.
1972 = 100..
1967 = 100..
Percent.
1967 = 100..
.do.
do
.do..
.do.
do
do
206.9
289
0
285
299
312.3
319.5
310
279.6
280.9
215.6
298.4
0.3
291.7
303.1
315.8
323.6
312.4
287.3
234.6
214.6
296.9
0.4
291.6
301.5
313.8
323.9
309.0
286.3
283.2
216.4
300.5
0.4
291.7
304.4
317.0
324.8
313.9
288.5
285.6
218.5
303
0
294
306.0
318.5
329.1
317.3
289.8
287.1
302.6
0.4
293.9
306.3
318.7
327.2
317.0
289.6
287.3
303.1
0.3
294.3
305.6
318.3
328.3
317.4
289.6
286.6
303.5
0.3
295.5
306.0
318,4
331.8
317.4
290.1
287.3
148.3
155.1
154.5
155.4
157.1
156.8
156.8
157.6
0.
0.5
1.1
93.3
154.4
96.9
101
100.2
94.6
163.0
99.2
103.8
103.4
94.8
162.2
99.3
103.9
103,5
94.3
163.8
99.1
104.2
104.0
94.4
165.8
99.1
104.8
104.3
94.4
94.3
94.6
-0.1
0.3
0
1.2
0
0.6
0.3
Wages a n d P r o d u c t i v i t y
340. Average hourly earnings, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
341. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business..
370. Output per hour, private business sector
358. Output per hour nonfarm business sector
1977 = 100...
...do...
...do...
...do...
..do...
..do...
1.0
0.5
C. L a b o r F o r c e , E m p l o y m e n t , a n d
Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.
Total civilian labor force,. .
Total civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed. .
Unemployed males, 20 years and over .
Unemployed females, 20 years and over
Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed, full-time workers
. ...
.
.
do
.do..
.do.
.do.
.. ..
Labor Force Participation Rates:
451. Males, 20 years and over3
452. Females, 20 years and over3
Percent
...do..
...do..
3
453. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Dl.
Millions..
, do
Thousands.
110.20 111.55 111.28 112.06 112.01 111.87 112.04 112.14
99.53 100.83 100.04 101.53 102.50 101.97 102.61 102.94
10,678 10,717 11,240 10,529 9,507 9,896 9,429 9,195
5,089 5,257
5,539
5,144 4,599 4,809 4,596 4,392
3,613 3,632 3,788 3,545 3,254 3,366
3,215
3,181
1,977 1,829
1,912
1,840
1,654 1,721
1,618
1,622
9,006 9,075 9,524 8,899 7,959 8,319
7,900 7,658
7a. 5
53.1
53.5
78.5
53.0
53.4
78.6
53.3
54.0
78.4
53.2
53.3
-147.1 -182,. 9 - 1 6 6 , 1
617.4
643*3 6 5 2 . 6
764.4 826.2 8 1 8 . 7
31.3
51,0
51.7
439.1 483*3 4 7 8 , 7
407.8 432,3 4 2 7 . 0
-187.3
645.2
832.5
55.5
492.7
437.1
NA
NA
847.0
NA
NA
443.5
78.7
52.7
54.1
78.4
53.2
52.8
78.4
53.2
53.3
78.3
53.2
53.7
0.2
0.6
-4.7
-4.4
-4.5
-6.0
-5.0
0.1
0.3
-2.5
-4.4
-1.1
0.2
-3.1
0
1.5
-6.3
-7.1
-S.4
-3.8
-6.6
0.
0.
0.5
-0.1
0.
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.6
-0.2
-0.1
-0.7
-21.2
-1.1
1.7
3.8
2.9
2.4
NA
NA
1.7
NA
NA
1.5
NA
NA
27.1
2.8
0.9
2.5
-9.7
-10.6
D. G o v e r n m e n t A c t i v i t i e s
Receipts and Expenditures
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.
Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit3.
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures
517.
525.
548.
557.
570.
564,
Defense Department obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
New orders, defense products
Output of defense ami space equipment
Employment in defense products industries
National defense purchases
D2.
A.r.r bil. dol...
..do....
...do. ..
.do.
.do..
.do.,
Defense I n d i c a t o r s
Mil. dol
..do....
.do.
1967 = 100..
Thousands. ...
A.r., bil. dol..
18,908
10,718
6,246
109.4
1,371
179.4
NA 20,135 20,095
NA 10,352 10,888
6,540 6,600 5,464
119.9 117.9 120,8
1,367 1,362 1,368
200.3 199.4 201.2
Mil. dol
...do..
17,694
3,053
4,007
20,329
4,964
2,442
NA 16,216 16,882
2,861 3,122
NA 3,404 3,554
20,770 22,302
4,246 5,195
2,866 2,766
NA 17,201
NA
NA
5,525
6,943
122.9
124.2
1,380
1,380
206.2
NA
NA
8,068
123.9
1,378
NA
NA
7,237
125.7
1,383
NA
NA
46.0
0,8
-0.1
NA
NA
-10.3
1.5
0.4
-0.2
5.2
-17.2
2.5
0
0.9
NA 16,951 16,848
NA 2,979 3,109
NA 3,689 3,686
NA 24,763 23,179
NA 5,232 5,036
NA 3,154 3,425
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-0.6
4.4
-0.1
-6.4
-3.7
8.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
4.1
9.1
4.4
7.4
22.4
-3.S
E. U.S. I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a n s a c t i o n s
El. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectric^ machinery
General imports, total,
Imports of petroleum and products
Imports of automobiles and parts
,
..do...
...do...
..do...
NA
NA
NA
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data 2
Series title
Percent change
Annual average
of
measure
1981
1982
1983
4th Q
1982
3d Q
1982
1st Q
1983
2dQ
1983
3dQ
1983
4th Q
1983
1st Q
to
2dQ
1983
2dQ
to
3dQ
1983
3d Q
to
4th Q
1983
|
II. OTHER I M P O R T A N T E C O N O M I C
MEASURES—Con.
E2. G o o d s a n d Services M o v e m e n t s E x c e p t
Transfers UndervMilitary Grants
667.
668.
669.
622.
618.
620.
651.
652.
Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods ard services
Merchandise trade balance'
Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Income om U S investments abroad .
Income ora foreign investments in the U S
Bil dol
..
.do
.
. . .
.do.
...
.do
...
.do
.
.
do
.
.
..
.
do....
. . do
-2.03 -7.83 -9.92
81.14 81.85 85.23
83.17 89.68 95.14
- 8 . 8 1 -14.66 -18.17
49.51 43.91 50.58
58.32 63.57 68,75
17.70 19.03 20.62
12.61 13.33 13.69
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-5.80
0.9
7.8
-5.85
-1.2
9,0
7.5
5.7
-2.09
4.1
6.1
-3.51
3.4
8.1
8.4
2.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
667
668
669
622
618
3432.0
1570.5
6,679
1563.0
2423.6
1120.3
4,764
3.2
2.8
2,3
2.1
1.7
2.0
0.9
0.7
1.9
1.6
1.3
2.6
1.6
1.3
2.1
1.1
0.9
0.9
2.6
1.8
1.6
200
50
217
213
2 24
225
227
1857.2 1991.9 2158.6 2008.8 2046.9 2073.0 2147.0 2181.1 2233.1
956.8 970.2 1011.4 971.0 979.6 986.7 1010.6 1016.0 1032.2
236.1 244.5 278.6 243.4 252.1 258.5 277.7 282.8 295.2
141.2 139.8 156.0 138.2 143.2 145.8 156.5 157.9 163.6
733.9 761.0 804.3 766.6 773.0 777.1 799.6 814.8 825.9
362.5 364.2 376.3 364.7 366.0 368.9 374.7 378.1 383.3
887.1 986.4 1075.7 998.9 1021.8 1037.4 1069.7 1083.5 1112.0
453.1 466.2 479.2 468.2 470.4 472.0 479.4 480.1 485.3
3.6
2.4
7.4
7.3
2.9
1.6
3.1
1.6
1.6
0.5
1.8
0.9
1.9
0.9
1.3
0.1
2.4
1.6
4.4
3.6
1.4
1.4
2.6
1.1
230
231
232
233
236
238
237
239
2.88
93.66
90.78
-7.02
59.25
66.27
21.56
13.19
-0.80
87.08
87.88
-9.10
52.80
61.90
21.04
14.21
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
2954.1
1513.8
6,584
1505.3
2047.6
1054.7
4,587
3073.0
1485.4
6,399
1494.8
2176.5
1060.2
4,567
3309.5
1534.8
6,550
1537.2
2335.6
1094.3
4,671
-4.85 -4.19
86.93 80.84
91.79 85.03
-13.08 -11.35
52.24 48.34
65.32 59.70
21.57 19.50
14.75 13.49
6 20
651
652
A. N a t i o n a l I n c o m e a n d P r o d u c t
A l . GNP and Personal Income
200
50.
217.
213.
224.
225.
227.
GNP current dollars
GNP, 1972 dollars
Per capita GNP, 1972 dollars
Final sales, 1972 dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
230.
231.
232.
233.
236
238
237.
239.
Total, current dollars
Total, 1972 dollars
Durable goods, cirrent dollars
Durable goods, 1972 dollars
Nondurable goods current dollars
Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars
Services, current dollars
Services, 1972 dollars
Ar.bil
dol
do
A r , dollars
.
A.r., bil dol ..
.
.do
....
do
A r , dollars
...
A r , btl dol
.
3090.7
1485.7
6,393
1487.0
2191.5
1059.3
4, 558
3109.6
1480.7
6,355
1503.4
2227.8
1066.1
4,576
3171.5
1490.1
6,382
1505.5
2255.9
1073.8
4,599
3272.0
1525.1
6,518
1530.5
2301.0
1083.0
4,629
3362.2
1553.4
6,622
1549.7
2361.7
1100.1
4,690
A2. Personal C o n s u m p t i o n Expenditures
..
. .do
...
.
do
do
do
do
..
do
do.
..
A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240
241
242
243.
245.
30
do
Total current dollars
Total 1972 dollars
Total fixed investment current dollars
Total fined investment, 1972 dollars
Change in business inventories, current dollars3
Change in business inventories 1972 dollars3
do
do
..
.
.do
...do
.do
474,9
227.6
456.5
219.1
18.5
18.5
414.5
194.5
439.1
203.9
-24.5
-24.5
471.3
218.4
478.2
220.7
-6.9
-6.9
425.3
198.4
430.2
199.8
-4.9
-1. 3
377.4
178.4
433.8
201.1
-56.4
-22.7
404.1
190.0
443.5
205.4
-39.4
-15.4
450.1
210.2
464.6
215.6
-14.5
-5.4
501.1
230.7
492.5
227.0
8.5
3.8
529.8
242.5
512.1
235.0
17.7
7.5
11.4
10.6
4.8
5.0
24.9
10.0
11.3
9.8
6.0
5.3
23.0
9.2
5.7
5.1
4.0
3.5
9.2
3.7
240
241
242
243
245
30
595.7
286.5
229.2
110.4
366.5
176 1
649.2
291.8
258.7
116,6
390.5
175 2
690.2
293.3
275.2
118.0
415.0
175 4
655.7
292.2
261.7
116.9
394.0
175. 3
679.7
299.7
279.2
124.4
400.5
175.2
677.4
292.9
273.5
118.4
404.0
174 5
683.4 698.3
292.1 295.2
273.7 278.1
117,6 .118.9
409.7 420.2
174. 5 176. 3
701.7
293.2
275.6
116.9
426.1
176. 3
0.9
-0.3
0.1
-0.7
1.4
0,
2.2
1.1
1.6
1.1
2.6
1.0
0.5
-0.7
-0.9
-1.7
1.4
0.
260
261
262
263
266
267
26.3
43.0
368.8
159.7
342.5
116 7
17.4
28.9
347,6
147.3
330.2
118 4
-10.6
11.7
335.8
138.9
346.4
127 2
0.9
24.0
346.0
146.4
345.0
122 4
5.6
23.0
321.6
136.5
316.1
113 5
17.0
20.5
326.9
137.3
309.9
116 8
-8.5
12.3
327.1
136.2
335.6
123 9
-32.6
2.5
348.1
141.5
380.7
139 0
-25.5
-8.2
0.1
-0.8
8.3
6 1
-9.8
-0.9
4.3
3.3
7.1
4 3
-14.3
-8.9
2.1
0.6
5.9
7 6
250
255
252
256
253
257
NA
2373.0 2450.4 2646.9 2458.9 2474.0 2528.5 2612,8 2686.9
1769.2 1865.7 1990.1 1879.5 1889.0 1923.7 1968.7 2011.8 2056,0
126.7
139.7
109.0
103.6
116.2
120.6 127.2
120.2
128.6
53.9
56.2
49.9
50.9
52.3
54,1
54.8
41.4
54.8
NA
192.3 164.8 226.3 168.5 161.9 181,8 218.2 248.4
249.9 261.1 247.2 256.4 254.7 248.3 243.8 246.1 250.4
3.3
2.3
5.5
1.3
20.0
-1.8
2.8
2.2
-0.4
-1.6
13.8
0.9
NA
2.2
10.3
4.3
NA
1.7
220
280
282
284
286
288
5.5
5.6
-24.8
28.5
-1.4
8.3
6.3
26.6
-17,4
0.9
NA
NA
6.6
NA
0.2
290
295
292
298
293
A4. Government Purchases
of G o o d s a n d S e r v i c e s
260
261
262
263.
266
267
Total current dollars
Total 1972 dollars
Federal Government current dollars
Federal Government, 1972 dollars
State and local governments current dollars
State and local governments 1972 dollars
...
do....
do
do
..
do...
.
do
do
....
A 5 . Foreign T r a d e
250. Net exports of goods, and services, current dollars3
255 Net exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars3
.
Exports of goods and services
..
do
.
252. Exports of goods and services, current dollars
256
... d o . .
...do
do
1972 dollars
253. Imports of goods and services, current dollars
257 Imports of goods and services 1972 dollars
.
.do
. . .
do
-18.3
11.4
341.1
140.7
359.4
129 2
A 6 . N a t i o n a l I n c o m e a n d Its C o m p o n e n t s
220. National income
do ...
280. Compensation of employees
. . .
282. Proprietors' income with 1VA and CCAdj
284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj
286. Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
288. Net interest
A7.
..
,
.
.
..do.
do
Saving
290. Gross saving (private and government)
.
295. Business saving
..
292. Personal saving
298. Government surplus or deficit 3
293
.
.
.do.
.
.
do...
.do...
Personal saving rate 3
.do
.
...
do
. .
.do
....
do
Percent
...
483.8 405.8 43 6.0 397.9 351.3 398.5 420.6 455.4
374.4 396.2
NA 401.9 405.8 419.7 443.4 471.4
91.5 115.8
135.3 125.4 113.1 123.0 120.8 121.7
- 2 6 . 9 -115.8 -131.8 -127.0 -175.3 -142.9 -114.4 -131.8
5.4
5.4
4.0
6.6
5.8
4.8
5.6
4.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (•) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.
2
NA
NA
123.5
NA
5.1
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD, Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
' I n v e r t e d series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average ( w i t h weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart A l . Composite Indexes
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Jan. July July Nov.
P T
P
T
J
(series 62,77,91,95,101,109) /
| .-
1948 49 50 51 52 S3 54 55 96 §7 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags { + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
10
JANUARY 1984
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
|A
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued
July May
P T
Nov. Oct.
P
I
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
nr '
Jan J u l y July N o v .
P T P
T
r
~~ ' . 1 "v ' ' f f
I Index; 1967** 100hi i1
I
914, Capital investment commitments (series 12,20,29)
:
!
i
b l y (iHila, 18, gB, 80)
•
i
'
!
i
< j. ., '
i
.[i
940. Ratio, coincident index to fagging index
L liUWl .
!
iAA'1
L .
1948 49 50
J
i 'H1
52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
NOTE: Numbflrs entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags ( + ) in
841985
from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on pate 60.
JANUARY 1984
11
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
|A |
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components
Nov.
P
Oct.
T
July May
P T
Aug. Apr,
P T
Apr.
P
Feb.
T
I. Average workweek, p
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
workers, manufacturing (hours)
ran" li
12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100)
20.
Contracts and; ciders for1 plait and
1948 49 90 91 52 53 54 59 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 $5 66 67
69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 1141985
Current data for these serin:; are sftown on paces 61,64, 65, and 66.
12
JANUARY 1984
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
Aug. Apr.
PI
Apr. Feb.
p T
Jan. July July (Vov.
T
P T
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (1mTrate,bOol)
f
\
f
v
\
(
r
99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index; 1941-43=10)
„,,
,—^
166, Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (bH. dot)
111. Change in credit outstanding—business and consumer
1
borrowing (arm. rate, percent) i i ••• '
• '•
!!
ii
if
1948 49 50 51 52 93 54 95 S6 57 58 5® ©0
74 75 76 77 78 79 80 SI 82 83 841985
'This is a weighted 4-t(;rm moving average {with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 7 , 6 8 , 6 9 , 7 1 , and 72.
BUI JANUARY 1984
13
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
July May
P T
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
Jan.Juty July Nov.
F T P
T
. Employees wi rionagricuitLral payrois
51, Personal income less transfer
1972 dolaris ( m rate, bil. dol.;
. Industrial prodiction, total (index:
57. Marmfacturine and trade sales in
1948 49 50 51 5% 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 86 67 68 6® 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77
SI 82 83 841085
Current data for tt»» swies an iJiown «t pa{et 62,63, and 65.
14
JANUARY 1984
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
Jan.July July Nov.
P I P
T
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales,
a^d trade (ratio) i 177711
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data
as percent pf trend (percent)
Average prime rate
in 1972 dollars (bil. do).)
1948 49 50 S I
52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 79
81 82 S3 841985
Current data for ttwse safes are shown on pafes 62,68,70, and 73.
BCII
JANUARY 1984
15
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
Apr. Rib,
P
I
Dec,
P
lilov.
T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
My Wow.
P
T
Margtriw Employment Adjustments 1
42-
1. Average wcrkweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
4140-
5. Average weekly iiwtibl claims, State unemptoyment insurance
1959 6©
61
Cunent data for these series
16
e shown on paje 61.
JANUARY 1984
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Wov.
T
[Comprehensive Employment]
48. Employee-hours i
(arm. ratet bit. hours)
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (mioas)
tec]
/^
S^
:^J y
/"
41. Empkiyees on nonagricuJti^ral payrolls (mlons)
i
40. Employees in goods-producing industries—mining,
manufacturing, and construction (miftons)
T
605S-
/
90. Ratio, civilian employnient to totar population <ft worl^ng age (percent
nz
585756^•y^f1^^ "f-^
5554-
7S
7§
77
78
S§ 1086
Current data for these series are shown on pates 61 and 62.
K C I I JANUARY 1984
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Jan. July July
F T P
Nov.
T
I Cojgyehensive Unemployment [
5-
91123-
ital (percent—inverted scale)
4-1
91011-
45. Average weekly insured! imemployment
2345-
91. Average duration of unemployment
K | ; |ig,Lg,Lgl
12162022-
44. Unemployment rate, persons u
1959 60
61
S2
63
§4
66
67
68
69
70
r (percent—inverted scale)
71
72 73
74 75
76
77 78 79
80 81
82 83 84
8S 3L986
Current data for these s«rfe» m shown on
18
JANUARY 1984
IICII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B |
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
prehensive Output and income |
50, GNP in 1972 dofcrs, Q (ann. rate,
52. Personal income in 1972 (Mars (ann. rate, bl. do).)
51. Personal income less
(arm. rate, W. dot.)
Wages and salaries ri mining, manufacture, and
construction in 1972 doflars (ann. rate, bi. dol.)
u , \ . J LJULJL
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
73
74
75
70
77
78
79
80
Current data for these series are shown on pap 63.
KCII
JANUARY 1984
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PRjOCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
Jan. July July
F T P
Nov.
T
180170160150140130120200190180170160150140130120110800-
73. Industry production, durable manufactures
(index: 1 1967=100)
,C,C
750700650600550500-
49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars, Q
/arm rato! hO At\\
450400-
90807060-1
90-i
8070-
90-|
80-
601 i •
1959 60
61
62
33
64
6S
66
67
63
Current data for these serins are stto-w on paces 63 and 64.
20
JANUARY 1984
ltd)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
6. New orders, durable g<xx
current dollars (MI
7. New orders, durable goods industries, in 1972 dollars
(bJ.dol.)
consumer Roods and
1972 dollars (bil. do!.)
united orders, durable goods indi
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
96.
Manufacturers
(bii. dot.)
percent of Companies
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7S
19S@
Current data for tliese series are shown on page 64.
ItCIt
JANUARY 1984
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
i
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries —Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
80
81
Nov.
T
m<;umption;and Trade
Mahufactiiring and trade ^ e s in cutrent dolars
inIffljliifilars (M rfnl*
75. Industrial
|! (index:'
55. Personal consumptton expenditures,
1
^ Q (ami. rate; ML dof.)
JLpfuv L -....;' -
1959 60
$1
$;>
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
82
83
114
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
22
JANUARY 1984
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
' I1 H I
1601
[formation of Business Enterprises
1201006555«
45-
35-
253530-
1 Business investment Commitments]
25*
10. Contracts and orders foil
in ^ n t dollars
20-
20. Contracts and orders for plant ami
in 1972 dollars ( M l do!.)
20 H
24. Manufacturers' nevv
nondefense, in current dollars (bii. dor)
15-
L
ers' new orders, capital goods industries,
, in 1972 dollars ( M l dot.)
10090807060 «
50-
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
(mil. sq. f t of floor area; M U > moving avg.—b-term;
40-
.
1959 60
61
62
®3 64
S9
70
71
72
73
74
75
1%
77
i Jin
79 ' 80
' « .,UL/unA i '
81
82 83
M
85 1986
'this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from HcGraw-HiN Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for (hest series are jfrmn on pages 65 and 66.
BCII
JANUARY 1984
23
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Dec
P
Nov.
P
T
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
110-
'Business Investment Commitments—Con.[
100 *
8070-
97. Backlog of capital
504030-
1511. New capital appropriate manufactiriig,
, Q(bLdaL)
'
360 •
320-
2i@-
61. Business expjeraitures for new planttod
equipment,
Q
T
J
(arm. rate,' ^ ' *
240*
J*
^~
20016040036©32©-
siness Investment Expenditures |
289240 -
200-
69. Machinery and equipment sales I and b\s<m$kconstructkxi expenditures (atmJrate, bi. M )
160-
120Z?M
200-
j'6.| Industrial production, business equipment
(index: 1967-100) il
180-
160-
CJjLii
140
s
120100-
80-
1959 60
SI
63
63
64
65
66
67
68
60
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
84
85 1986
Current data for these vires are shown on pages 66 and 67.
24
JANUARY 1984
ItCII
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Jan, July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
[Business Investment Expenditures—Con.]
;
II
Nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars, (J (arm. rate, bi. doL)
86. Total, Q
|j ^_^ ~"~l *
[cIEci
11
\Zt?
. Producers durable equipment, Q
iRfesidentiaTConstruction Commitments and Investmeiii 1
!!
1
I
28. New orivate housing units started ( a m , rate, millions)
1
1
29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 )
l@i!)
©@
§1
©2
63
70
71
72
73
74
7S
7S
S3 1986
Current data for those series are shown on page 67.
BCII
JANUARY 1984
25
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Inventory Investment!
(aim. rate, bil. dol.)
+30 T
+20-
-10-20-
36. Net change in inventories oh hand at)d on order in
(ann. rate, bi). dot.; moving
t-40+30+20-
r ww
-10-20-30-40-
+ 701
>60-
31. Change in book value, manufacturing mi tradt inventories
(ann. rate, H. dikl.; MCD moving avk*4?«riiT *
+ 50+40+30-
+ 20-
1
-10-20-30=40-
= 60-
38. Change in stocks of materials
manufacturing (foil, dol.; MCD moving av
+ 4+3-
IXX
+ 2-
-1-
= 31959 60
61
62
63
64
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7S
76
77
78
7®
80
'This is a welfhted 4-term movkig average (with wetjhts 1,2,2,1) placed m the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are sliov n on page 68.
ItCII JANUARY 1984
26
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
|
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
81
82
jtriyentories oh Hand and on Order j !
and trade inventories,
Manufacturing and trade inventories! in 1972 dollars (
65. Book value of
of finished
77. Ratio, constant-dolar inventories to sales,
78. Stocks of rrvjjtsoals and supples on
1959 60
61
62
63
JANUARY 1984
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
83
84
85 1986
27
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
NOT.
T
81
82
981 Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive materials
(percent; JJKDrodving avg.—6-teiJfn)
99. Change in sensitive
avg,—4-term1) "
!
• I
23. Spot market prices, raw Jndustrials^(Wftx: 1967=1^5)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index:
and jPnfitj Margins t
18. Corporate profits after taxes in 197!
(am. rate, bi. dol.) f u l
16. Corporate profits after taxes in cunen|t dollars,
(am. rate, bi. dol.)
,L,L
1959 60
61
(SS>
63
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
83
84
85 1986
x
m% it a weifhted 4-term movinj »m»tt (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
'Beginnint with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on pace 69,
28
JANUARY 1984
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Jan July July
P I P
Um.
T
8 and Profit Margins—Con.
ISO-;
120-
79. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and \
current dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dot.)
80. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and GCAdj
after taxes te corporate domestic
'-•4
Ratio, corporate profits after
to corporate domestic income
SO-
with IVA and CCAdj
orporations, t) (cents)
15. Profits after taxes per
26. Ratio, orice to unit labdr mi nonfarm busmen seddr, 0 (index; 1977-100)
104-n
102*
wo 4r
35® H
~i
20® -
34. Net cash flow , corporate, m current
(ann. rate,' * Ml
cash % , corporate, in 1972 doHars, Q
195® SO
61
62
63
64
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
JANUARY 1984
29
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Jan. July
T
July
P
Nov.
T
l U n l j j b a r Costs and Uabor Share I
63. Unit labor cost, private
68. Labor cost in current doiars $w unit of
nonfkiancial corporations, Q (bolars)
62. Labor cost per unit of output
as 'a percent of national income,
64. Compensation of
0 (percent)
'Ufui
1939 60
62
62
Currtnt data (or thus u r t n art] j t o
30
63
@4
65
6S
67
©8
• 70
LiiniU
71
72 73
84
89 1986
on pate 70.
JANUARY 1984
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term
102. Change in money supply M2
(percent; MOJ imving avg.—6-tend)
_ j
—ji—^irf^
104. Change in total Iquid assets (percent; movine avfe*4-temi 1 ) |L.L,L
10$. Money supply Ml 1972 dollars (bi. do).)
Moriey sifpply >)I2 in 1972 dollars
107. Ratio, GW to money suppl
l,Vetod|y of Money |
1081 Ratio, personal income i i ^ l e y supply M2 (ratio)
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
70
71
72
73
74
75
7<
Si 1986
'This is a weighted 4-term movinf average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed « i the terminal mmth of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pate 71.
BCII JANUARY 1984
31
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart BV. Money and Credit—Continued
01
32
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
1986
JANUARY 1984
ItCII
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, consumer instato
(percent—inverted ^cale) f f T T
1959 SO
01
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
Current data for these series are shown on page 72,
ItCII JANUARY 1984
33
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart 117. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July
T
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Jyly
P
Nov.
T
1817-
161514-
1312-
119. Federal fu>di rate (percent)
1110987-
61716*
15-
131211109818171615141312111098765431959
SO
61
®2
63 64
70
7% 72
73
74 75
76
77
78 79
84
§S 1986
Current data lor these series a e shown on pages 72 and 73.
34
JANUARY 1984
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
||hfrr»$ERatte-Con.| '
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)
il
I
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
66. Consumer installment credit (bit. doJ.) i
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current
d&arc (bO. dol.)
K
1. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars
95. Ratio, consumer
1959 €0
61
62
63
64
@i
t credit to personal income (percent)
73
'LuiAJL
74 7§
!
76
'
77
78
79
33
33
84
35 1936
i
Current data for these series are shown on pate 73.
BCD JANUARY 1984
35
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
Nov.
P
,
950. Twelve leading indipafcir
Jan. July July
F T P
Mar.
T
Nov.
T
" r
(6-mo, sprt—, 1-mo. span-—)
100-
I
o951. Four rougNy coincfd^flHlitator components f$*$H). s p a n — , 1-mo. span—*)«
mi \mi\w\wa\u\
*r ; \ / $
100-
\mniw\i\i
|n||||||fiuif!fi|fffr iriiyj||i|fi/uii
!
''Til V II
ill llii i
s
0-
952. Six lagging indicator msponfrrts (6-mo. spaif^U, 1-mo. s p a n — )
1001
50-
961. Average workweek, production workers, wiuiacluring—20 in(tostete((9-mo. span
, 1-mo. s p a n — )
100-
§0-
962. Inttial claims, State i m f o b y n N «i$uraoc^Sl <web$ (percent dedWrf; 9nno. span—., 1-mo. span**-)
100-
50-
961 Employees on private nonag^icultural payiWter 172-J186 Mustries<#4b. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )
100-
50-
m) si
m, ©3
79
76
77
78
79
SO
81
Current data for these series aw shown on page 74.
36
JANUARY 1984
IICII
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Apr.
I fej.
?
l
Doc Nov.
p
Kov.
P
Mar
T
Jji.-Hy
P
7
Jjly
Nov.
F
T
964. New orders, durable goods industries—34-35 industries
(9-mo. span—*, 1-mo, s p a n — ) ,
100-
§0-
0-
965, Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 industries (4-0 moving a v g . » - ~ , !;•<) span#~*U)
90-
70-
966. Industrial production—24 industries (6-mo. span—L, 1-mo. s p a n — )
100-
50*
967.
Spot market prices, raw industrials—13 industrial materials ( 9 - m s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )
100-
50-
968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks—47-82 industries (9-moJ span**—, 1-mo. s p a n — )
50 •
960. Net profits, manufacturing—about 600 companies1 (4~Q span)
§4
35
1986
'This is .i copyrighted series used by permrssfon; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for tnsse series are shown on page 75.
ItCII JANUARY 1984
37
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Mm.
P
Jao. July
P T
Mar.
T
July
P
Jan. Jo!^
P T
Nov.
, T
JySy
P
Now.
T
.Actual- |;ii : i*h
f!f
ffiercertiiii
i! 970. Business expenditures for new plant and !
rt-4-22 industrK||l-Q s
(a) Actual expertditur#
!: ' ! \ . 'i
£
9751 Level of inventories, mamjfacttnig and trade ( M span)
New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
976. Seing prices, manufacturing (4-Q span})
972. Not profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q
fel sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
1972 73 74
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
978. SeMng prices, retai trade (4-Q span)
83 1984
1972 73
74
79
76
77
78
79
80
81
S2
83 1984
'This is a copyrighted series use J by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Eradttreet, Inc. Dun ft Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.
Current data for these series arii si town on pate 76.
38
JANUARY 1984
Bill
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change
Jan. July
1
July
?
Nov.
T
l^month sparis * 41 3-month spans mmirm
910c. Composite index of 12 leading ind+cato*
920c. Composite index of four roughly comci
930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators
47c, Index of industrial production
48c. Employee-hours in nonagricuttural estabbhments
»^*- ^
-
» * * S - - W V l-^bs-V -^^l#T.i1')lll I '. I.UHFI'I HHM»>|MM*Wr • ) .ILMIIIIIIIIIM I I|I|)IW.—|. ,lijl
51c. Persona! income less transfer
payments in 1972 dolars
1959 6D
SI
62
©3
©4
i i
§©
67
68
@9
70
71
72
73
74
7S
76
77
78
7©
NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occaskmaHy in appendii C. The "Alphabetical Indei-Sertes Hnding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.
BUI JANUARY 1984
39
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MSASURES
IA I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A l . G N P and Personal Income
200. Oiweirent dollars; Q ( m rate, bi. dol.)
223. Personal income in current dolars
(aim. rate,
224, Disposable moral income in current
dolafe, Q(bugte,bi|. dol.)
213. Final $mto119 2 dollars,' Q ( a f t * M k H. doL
personal income n 1972
Q (arm. rate, bi.1 dol);!
217. Per capita GNP
personal income in
arm. rate, tttous. dol.)
1959
SO
61
62
©3
S4
67
68 69 70 71 72 73
74 75 76 77 78 79
S3
84
©S 1986
Currant data for those series an shown on paces 63 and 80.
40
JANUARY 1984
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Jan. July
July
Personal consufrtption Expenditures—
230. Total, Q _
). Nondurable goods, Q
232. Durable good;
Annual rate) bieicteiars (1972)|
120011091000900800700-
233. Durabteeoods,O
1959 8©
61
62
63
7©
71 12 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
S3
@4 85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81.
ItCII JANUARY 1984
41
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A J
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Jan. July July
F T P
Nov.
T
% ss ixiuate domestic investment--
| Amual rate, biondoHars (1972)]
1
JULJI
1999 60
61
Current data for these serial are shown on pa|e 81.
42
JANUARY 1984
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Annual rate, bilkx doiars (current) [
purchases of goods and services—
900 •
800700600 •
500*
400-
300-
200-
100-
400350300250200-
150-
100-
iJULnJliLJUL
1959 60
61
62
63
$4
65
66
67 @8
72
t
JuuuilLf
73
74
i
7S
i
76
• II
77
*
'
78
i
out _'
79
80
uU LfUUL'l
S2
'' '
S3
'I " ]J .' ' " ]i '
84
S3 1936
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
BCII
JANUARY 1984
43
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A5. Foreign Trade
Jan. July
P T
July
P
*,,.,
Nov.
T
.
—
~^.-
253- knpoits of goods and Stfvtts, Q
250. Net export:; df goods and
Annual rate, blbn dollars (1972)1
buvdiuuJ
1959 60 61
6.1
63
64
S7
68
Si
7®
71
72 I
Current data for these series are si own on pafe $2.
44
JANUARY 1984
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
Jan. July
P T
r
July
P
Nov.
T
i
| Annual fattj, bioR dofers (current)
ion of employees, Q
profits witti inventory valuation and capital consumption
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
284. ft* tai income of persons with captal
eoosumption adjustment, Q
10
1959 60
61
62
63
BCII JANUARY 1984
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
8X
82
83
J
1986
45
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A7. Saving
Jan. July July Nov.
P T
P
T
r
1959 60
II
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
31
82
83
84
85 1936
Current data for these surlei are shown on pages 82 and $3.
46
JANUARY 1984
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
m. July
T
July
P
Wov.
T
i 'jPycent'of GNP |
70-
235. Personal consumption e
i
M
60 •
20 «
and local government purchases
of goods and services, Q
15 -
265. Fedefal Government purchases of goods and services, Q
248. Nonreskiential fixed inve
5-
fixed investment, Q
^ 2 4 7 . Change in business inventories, Q
exports of goods and services, Q
-5-
^rcent of National Income ,
80-
75-
70-
15-
capital tonsurnptkM
10-
283, Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
capital consumption adjustments, Q
1.
I
l
l
,
1
T
^
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q
1959 60
61
62
63
64
6S
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
3S 19S6
Cwretit data for the» series are shown m paje 83.
BCII JANUARY 1984
47
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Chart B l . Price Movements
Jan. July
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
Jan. July July
P I P
m
Nov.
^
+10-
+ 5-
I 311c, F i x f e i p t e d price index, grossfausine^(product (|-4^pan)
31], Fwed-weigtited price inde^
uulJUL
1972 73
7® 75
70 77
78
79
80
81
82 83 1984
1972 73 74 75 76 77 7 8 79
31
82
;,;..:..'.JC;
33 1984
Current data for these si ries are shown on pates 84,85, and 86.
JANUARY 1984
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
140-
100 J
| Percent change at annual rate]
320c. All items (6-month span)
I
\k\
+NH-1
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
341. Real average hourly
workers, private nonf
340. Average hourly earrings of production workersprivate nonfarm economy (current dofers) 1
200-ri
180160-
346. Real average hourly cornpensatton, al empte; 0^s,nonfarm business sector, Q
120100*=
compensation, al employees,
sector, Q (current dollars),
40 J
1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84,87, and 88.
KCII
JANUARY 1984
49
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
Apr. Fab.
P
I
Chanpfaaverage hourly earnings of production
ate nortfaim economy1—
6-monthspan5,(awrate)| i r f y
tti averiige hourty compensation, al employees,
Ibusiners sector, Q—
. Cijrrent-doiar compensation
Rttaf compensation
4-quarter sfoans ;t v
wage and benefit decisions, al industries—
Frst year average changes, Q (ann. rate)
Average changes overfifeof
contract, Q (arm. rate)
358. Output per hour, al persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q
370. Output p& hour, al
private business s^cior, Q
370c. Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q
1959 60
61
62
€4
Si
68
6®
70
71
72
73
74
79
76
77
78
79
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufactulng only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 'One-month percent conges have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them
:omparafale with the annuaized 6-tmtii
6-m<Mth changes. See pace
pat 87
" for actual 1-month percent changes,
comparable
Current data for these series are shovin w pajes 87
" a nand
d 88.
8
50
JANUARY 1984
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
441. Civilian labor force (r^fions)
Labor force participation rates (percent)
, Males 20 years and over
453. Both y e s 16-19 years of agi
452. Fen ales 20 years and over
Number unemployed ( m i o n s ) -
37. Total unemployed^
447. Number unenptoyed, ful-time
(mHons)
1959 60
SI
€2
63
64
448. Number employed part-tine for economic
reasons (mains)
IX 72 73 74 75 7© 77 78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1980
Current data for theti serin art ihwm on pi(< 89.
ItCII
JANUARY 1984
51
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
$00. Fed^oi (ioverrvnent surp4is 9r ceficit, Q
63
64
69
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series am shown on page 90.
52
JANUARY 1984
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
81
82
$e Measures of Defense Activity
obligations incurred
(bii. dol.; M€D moving avg
Defense Department mftta-y prime
(b|doL?;MCDimmn
548, Manufacturers1 new orders,
63
ItCII JANUARY 1984
$4
65
66
67
68
69
7D
71
72
73
74
79
76
77
78
79
80
83
84
85 1986
53
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2 Defense Indicators—Continued
i.ate and jfinal Measures of Defense Activity]
1999
00
61
f>2
63
©4
65
67
68
69
70
7!L
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
SO
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are nhowrt on pate 91.
54
JANUARY 1984
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Jan. July July
P I P
Nov.
T
and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Co
£ni0k)yment in defense products industries (melons)
Mptdnrent personnel (
$78. Civian, direct p i
I National Defense Purchases!1
564. Federal Government purchases
r Q <^nn. rate, biL dot.;
goods and services for national
percent of GNP, Q (percent)
1959 60
61
S2
63
64
65
66
67
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
73
79
1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 91.
BCII
JANUARY 1984
55
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart E l . Merchandise Trade
Apr, Feb.
P
T
Mar.
T
NOT.
P
Jan July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
242016-
602. Exports excluding mitar> ^shipments
if
604. Exports of domestic
(hi. dot)
:!
H
26'
22>
1814
6J
612. General imports (bi. dol • MCD moving a v g . # l d
9.0
8.Q'
7,0
6.0
10
3,0
v
\
614. Imports of petrc>teiim ^ 8 ietroJeum
;
I (til. dot)
^
616. Imports of automobies and
M$
2.0
0.80.6-
0.4-
0.2'
62
63
64
65
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
81
82
34
S3 1986
Current data for these tier es ire shown on pafe 92.
56
JANUARY 1984
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
I
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Um.
T
Excess of receipts
;7T7| Excess of pa nn&ii
Income on foreign investments in the US,
UL/L
JJUL
1959 60
61
62
63
64
S3
S6
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.
BCI» JANUARY 1984
57
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F l . Industrial Production
Jan. July July
P T
P
1999
60
61
6.2 63
64
6§
60
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 75
76
77
78 79
Nov.
T
80 81
Current data for titesa series are shown on paje 94.
58
JANUARY 1984
KCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Chart F3. Stock Prices
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
, T
•Jan. July
July
Nov.
IP
[Percent change at annual rate)
1972 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 1984
1972 J3 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 1984
Current data for these series are shown on paces 95 and 96.
ItCII JANUARY 1984
59
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
^ H
910. Index of
12 leading indicators (series
1, 5 , 8 , 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
99,106,111)
Year
and
month
(1967-100)
920. Index of
4 roughly
coincident indicators (series
41, 47, 51, 57)
930. Index of
6 lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 9f,
95, 101, ^09)
(1967 = 100)
(1967*100)
COMPOSITE INDEXES
940. Ratio,
coincident
index to
lagging index
(1967 = 100)
Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)
(1967 = 100)
915. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)
916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)
917. Money
and financial
flows (series
104, 106, 111)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
198;?
M35.1
135.7
134.7
138.4
139.9
139.2
126.1
125.3
125.1
109.8
111.7
111.3
104.2
104.2
. 104.0
96.7
96.5
96.6
94.5
93.2
92.6
123.3
122.1
122.2
April
May
June . . . .
136.0
136.2
135.5
138.0
138.8
137.3
125.9
125.1
124.8
109.6
111.0
110.0
104.9
104.2
102.9
96.4
97.1
97.6
93.1
93.0
92.4
123.0
122.4
122.2
July
August
September
136.2
136.1
137.5
136.4
135.2
134.5
124.3
122.3
121.4
109.7
110.5
110.8
103.9
102.9
103.4
97.8
98.1
98.3
92.6
92.4
93.9
122.5
124.5
124.2
October
November
December
138.6
139.4
140.9
132.9
132.7
132.6
120.2
118.2
H6.7
110.6
112.3
113.6
104.7
105.4
107.0
98.0
97.0
96.4
95.0
95.5
96.4
122.7
122.5
122.5
January
February
March
145.2
147.7
150.6
134.3
133.5
134.6
rll5.7
r.115.8
r!14.4
rll6.1
H15.3
rll7.7
rlO6.3
107.0
107.2
97.7
99.3
101.4
97.6
98.6
100.5
127.2
129.7
131.2
April
May
June
152.6
154.4
157.3
135.6
137.9
139.8
H.13.5
rlll.O
rlO9.9
rll9.5
rl24.2
rl27.2
107.8
109.3
110.4
101.8
102.2
102.3
102.5
104.6
rlO5.7
130.9
129.6
131.7
158.2
rl58.9
160.2
140.8
140.6
143.0
rlia.l
rll0.8
rllO.2
rl27.9
rl26.9
rl29.8
109.3
108.9
109.4
103.0
104.5
104.8
rlO6.6
H07.0
107.6
133.0
rl33.4
rl31.9
rl62.2
161.9
E>2162.9
144.3
145.6
[R> 146.5
H09.8
109.9
"110,8
rl31.4
|H)rl32.5
P132.2
E>rll0.6
rlO9.9
P108.8
105.5
105.2
(H)plO5.8
©107.6
plQ.7.1
(MA)
rl32.4
rl33.6
(H)pl36.2
January
February
March
1983
July
August
September
October
November
December
.
3
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August .
September
October
November
December . . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H>; for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by ED- Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources art) listed at the back
of this issue. The " r " incicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
includes a substitute value for series 1. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the March 1982 issue.
2
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
3
Excludes series 57> for which data are not available.
^Excludes series; 77 and 95, for which data are not available,
60
JANUARY 1984
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
| ^ | EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
L.L.L
LP C, L
L C, L
1. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing
21. Average weekly
overtime hours,
production workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
L, Lgr U
5. Average weekly
initial claims, State
unemployment
insurance!
60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising to persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
(Thous.)
(Hours)
Comprehensive
Employment
Job Vacancies
Marginal Employment Adjustments
U, C, C
LP Lg, U
46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
48: Employee-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
(1967=100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)
Revised3
1982
January
February
March
37.5
39.5
39.0
2.3
2.5
2.3
563
514
566
0.336
0.316
0.288
April
May
June
39.0
39.1
39.1
2.4
2.3
2.3
566
585
551
,254
,250
July
August
September . . .
39.1
39.0
38.8
2.3
2.3
2.3
October
November . . .
December . . .
38.9
39.0
39.0
January
February
March
April
May
June
106
103
96
164.25
168.40
167.74
0.241
87
85
167.21
167.61
166.58
533
605
653
0.227
0.213
0.193
83
78
73
166.05'
165.46
165.30
2.3
2.3
2.3
651
616
531
196
195
0.208
76
78
83
164.29
163.24
164.01
39.7
39.2
39.5
2.4
2.4
2.6
507
478
479
0.214
0.215
0.216
83
83
83
165.78
163.53
164.44
40.1
40.0
40.1
2.9
2.7
2.9
470
453
406
0.212
0.232
0.245
81
87
92
166.10
166.94
167.40
July
August
September . . .
40.2
40.3
E>40.8
3.0
3.1
3.3
380
408
387
0.281
0.272
0.282
100
97
98
T168.12
rl67.80
rl70.30
October
November . . .
December . . .
40.6
r40.6
p40.5
r3.3
3.3
398
402
H>380
0.334
0.360
E>p0.392
111
114
E>P121
rl70.44
1983
H>p3.4
rl69.66
E>pl71.10
1984
January
February
March
April . . . . . . .
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October . .
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2
JANUARY 1984
61
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q |
Minor Economic
Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UN EMPLOYMENT-Continued
Comprehensive Employment-Continued
liming Class
Year
and
month
U,C, C
CC.C
L,C, u
U, Lg. U
42. Persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment
survey
40. Employees
in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction)
90. Ratio,
civilian employment to total
population of
working age
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
Revised 2
1982
Comprehensive Unemployment
Revised 2
L, Lg, U
L, Lg. U
37. Number of
persons unemployed, labor
force survey
43. Unemployment rate,
total
45. Average
weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programsJ
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
L, Lg, U
Revised 2
2
C)
Lg, Lg5 Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
91. Average
duration of
unemployment
44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Weeks)
(Percent)
Revised2
(2)
January
February
March
96,301
96,419
96,374
90,396
90,417
90,207
24,711
24,670
24,483
57.46
57.48
57.38
9,393
9,693
9,910
8.6
r8.9
9.0
4.1
4.1
4.3
13.4
14.1
14.0
2.2
2.5
2.7
April
May
June
96,223
96,726
96,314
90,024
90,016
89,775
24,307
24,226
24,001
57.23
57.51
57.15
10,303
10,363
10,480
r9.4
9.4
9.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
14.4
14.8
16.0
r2.9
r3.1
July
August
September
96,086
96,183
96,046
89,450
89,264
89,235
23,843
23,671?
23,530
57.01
56.99
56.84
10,896
10,910
11,267
r9.9
9.9
10.2
4.5
4.7
5 0
15.4
16.1
16 6
r3.3
r3.4
35
October
November
December
95,703
95,537
95,550
88,938
88,785
88,665
23,287
23,131.
23,061
56.63
56.52
56.44
11,544
11,887
11,894
rl0.4
10.7
no.7
5.2
5.2
5.0
17.2
17.4
18.4
3.8
r4.0
r4.2
95,734
95,757
95,930
88,885
88,746
88,814
23,186 I
23,049
23,030
56.48
56.45
56.48
11,523
11,516
11,419
10.4
10.4
10.3
4.5
4.5
4.4
19.4
19.1
19.2
4.2
4.2
r4.1
April
May
June
96,214
96,388
97,264
89,090
89,421
89,844
23,159
23,347
23,518
56.60
56.63
57.14
11,369
11,188
11,162
10.2
10.1
10.0
4.4
4.1
3.8
19.2
20 2
21 4
r4.0
41
H 0
July
August
September
97,726
98,035
98,568
90,152
89,748
90,851
23,724
23,830
23,935
57.35
57.45
57.62
10,600
10,633
10,353
9.5
9.5
r9 2
3.6
3.4
3 3
21.3
19.9
20 ?
3.9
3.6
r3 5
October
November
December
98,730
99,349
@)99,585
r91,087
r91f413
E)P91,644
r24,168
r24,322
Dp24,434
57.61
57.92
9,896
9,429
H)58.05
H>9,195
8.8
8.4
(H)8.2
3.3
3.2
20.1
20.2
(H)19.6
r3.3
3.1
2.8
1983
January
February
March
.
E>p3.2
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . . . . . .
October
November
December . . .
See note on page 60
Graphs of these serin are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
l
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
62
JANUARY 1984
0)3.0
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
PRODUCTION AND INCOME
Industrial Production
Comprehensive Output and Income
C, C, C
50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars
C, C, C
52. Constant
(1972) dollars
51. Personal
income, less
transfer payments, in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, mfg.,
and construction in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Persona income
223. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C,C,C
C.C.C
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C, C, C
47. Index of
industrial
production,
total
C, C, C
73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
C.L.L
74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures
(1967 = 100)
c, c, c
49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
.
1982
2,530.2
2,535.8
1,249.1
1,255.7
1,256.0
1,074.6
1,080.0
1,078.7
223.0
223.8
222.7
140.7
142.9
141.7
127.1
129.3
128.2
155.1
157.8
157.3
668 ! i
1,489^3
2,549.0
2,568.0
2,572.5
1,258.1
1,263.8
1,254.3
1,079.3
1,084.3
1,076.0
221.6
220.2
217.4
140.2
139.2
138.7
126.7
126.1
125.5
156.1
155.0
155.3
664! 6
July
August
September"
1,485'.7
2,589.8
2,586.7
2,597.4
1,256.0
1,250.8
1,251.2
1,072.2
1,067.5
1,066.6
215.5
213.3
211.9
138.8
138.4
137.3
125.9
124.9
123.5
155.7
156.9
156.7
6ei!e
October
November
December
1.48CK7
2,617.8
2,633.1
2,645.0
1,253.7
1,259.9
1,264.9
1,065.6
1,068.0
1,072.2
208.9
207.9
208.6
135.7
134.9
135.2
120.3
119.3
119.9
156.2
155.3
155.6
652 .'i
1,490.1
2,652.6
2,650.5
2,670.1
1,264.3
1,262.1
1,269.1
1,075.9
1,072.6
1,078.0
212.3
212.3
213.0
137.4
138.1
140.0
122.5
123.9
126.3
157.4
159.0
160.7
656! 9
1,525.1
2,689.0
2,719.3
2,732.6
1,267.8
1,278.5
1,285.3
1,077.9
1,087.3
1,094.0
214.8
215.7
217.6
142.6
144.4
146.4
129.1
131.0
133.2
163.3
165.4
167.8
681.8
July
August .
September
1,553^4
2,747.6
2,756.4
2,781.6
1,286.3
1,283.8
1,289.6
1,097.4
1,096.5
1,103.2
219.1
219.7
221.2
149.7
151.8
rl53 8
136.8
138.8
rl41 6
170.6
172.9
rl74 6
699^6
October
November
December
H>pl.576!5
r2,812.8
r2,833.1
E>P2,857.2
rl,302.8
rl,310.4
[H>pl,317.9
rl,116.6
rl,121.6
E>pl,127.7
r221.7
r222.4
(H>p222.7
rl55.0
rl56.1
E>P156.9
rl43.0
rl44.0
0>pl45.O
rl75.8
rl76.3
(H>pl76.3
E>p7l6!4
2,518.1
January
February
March
1,485.*8
April . . . . ;
May
June
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
1984
January .
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
ItCII JANUARY 1984
63
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
| Q
Minor Economic
Process
Capacity Utilization
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Q j
PRODUCTION AND INCOME—Continued
L, C,U
83. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(BEA)
(Percent)
32. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(FRB)
(Percent)
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES
Orders and Deliveries
L, C, II
84. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
materials
(Percent)
L,L, L
L.L.L
Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
7. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
U, L
8. New orders
for consumer
goods and
materials in
1972 dollars
(Bil. dol.)
L,L, L
L, Lg, U
L.L.L
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries ©
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
191)2
January
February
March
72.9
73,0
76.70
77.36
78.18
33.54
33.82
34.12
29.18
29.45
30.55
71.6
70.7
76.74
76.35
76.16
33.44
33.15
32.93
71.0
69.4
69
75.56
72.96
72.35
69.0
68.
313.57
312.40
311.85
32
36
35
29.30
30.77
30.29
310.78
307.45
304.41
31
30
38
32.63
31.49
31.14
30.29
29.60
29.62
-4.07
301.12
296.83
292,76
37
40
40
67.1
70.74
71.07
76.18
30.42
30.45
32.57
27.91
28.22
28.25
-1.74
-1.94
2.68
291.02
289.08
291.76
44
40
38
70.7
70.1
82.36
77.45
79.95
35.28
32.93
33.98
31.54
31.52
31.90
4.61
-0.32
. 0.36
296.37
296.05
296.41
41
42
50
73.8
73.5
83.10
84.46
90.90
35.30
35.71
38.20
32.03
33.91
34.19
299,27
301.05
305.37
52
52
52
77.4
r77.5
88.23
89.98
91.00
37.03
37.68
38.15
34.87
r35.99
35.27
307.96
310.02
312.05
52
61
60
H>p79.2
E>p79.8
93.37
.52
p95.42
39.15
H>r40.32
p39.81
35.64
E>r36.50
p35.95
317.18
H>r321.52
P321.46
64
59
72
April
May
June
"H
July
August
September
October....".
November .. ,
December . .
0.23
-1.17
-0.55
1983
January
February
March
*7O
April
May
June
*73
July
August
September . . .
H>p76
October
November . . .
December . . .
(NA)
E>5.14
r4.34
p-0.06
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 2 1 .
64
JANUARY 1984
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
| Q
• • • FIXED CAPITAL
1 1 1 INVESTMENT
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Formation of Business Enterprises
Consumption and Trade
Timing Class
C.C, C
C.C.C
Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month
56. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
C.L.C
75. Index of industrial production, consumer
goods
(1967=100)
C L, U
IU, U
Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
59. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
L, C, C
55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles
L, L,L
58. Index of
consumer,
sentiment ©
L.L.L
12. Index of
net business
formation
L,L,L
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
(Ann. rate,
oil. dol.)
(1st Q
1966=100)
(1967 = 100)
7CL4
71.0
66.5
62.0
113.2
115.6
113.5
43,330
47,234
46,899
65.5
67.5
65.7
115.2
114.7
112.1
46,876
46,995
45,936
(Number)
1982
January
February
March
340,746
345,687
347,061
150,871
153,723
154,188
139.6
141.8
141.5
86,542'
88,049
87,701
43,576
44,492
44,293
April
May
June
344,934
353,110
349,742
152,619
155,866
153,409
142.1
143.6
144.8
88,468
90,813
88,603
44,636
45,635
44,103
July
August
September
347,676
343,426
342,882
152,957
151,770
151,184
145.8
144.1
143.4
89,469
89,069
89,897
44,401
44,181
44,526
74.6
65.4
65.4
69.3
112.4
112.6
110.4
44,525
46,981
45,552
October
November
December
336,905
338,722
338,391
148,456
149,877
149,959
142.2
141.3
142.0
90,905
92,492
92,459
44,847
45,720
45,749
79.7
73.4
72.1
71.9
111.5
112.9
114.4
45,530
48,474
E>57,507
January
February
March
345,337
341,490
348,009
153,884
152,079
154,416
143.6
143.4
144.3
92,308
91,164
93,263
45,562
45,108
45,988
80^7
70.4
74.6
80.8
111.4
113.3
112.7
49,999
48,296
48,032
April
351,100
363,925
373,572
155,086
160,627
164,405
147.7
150.4
152.4
95,449
98,431
99,173
46,812
48,133
48,448
91.4
89.1
93.3
92.2
112.0
114.8
116.4
48,903
50,211
50,992
372,434
93.9
90.9
115.2
114.4
115.8
48,601
52,828
50,445
E>rll7.9
rll7-0
pllB.l
(NA)
71^4
•• •
1983
May
June
July
August
September
r374,358
r380,089
162,719
163,101
164,474
154.8
156.3
rl57.3
99,521
97,801
99,202
48,429
47,430
47,993
r92.5
October
November
December
r382,209
[H>p387,240
(NA)
rl64,899
[H>pl67,513
(NA)
rl57.1
rl57.8
E>pl58.7
rl00,841
rl01,981
[H>pl02,059
r48,715
IH>r49,266
(H>p97!9
•. .
p49,161
89.9
89.3
91.1
E)94.2
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
JANUARY 1984
65
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
i
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS .
Q j FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Business Investment Commitments
Timing Class
L.L.L
L, L t L
Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment
Year
and
month
10. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
20. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
U,L
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
capita) goods industries, nondefense
24. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
L, C, U
L,L, L
9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings !
27. Constant
(1972) dollars
Square feet of
floor space
(Bil. dol.)
(Millions)
Square meters of
floor space z
(Millions)
U, Lg, U
C Lg, Lg
11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
19112
26.77
29.36
25.94
13.22
14.44
13.14
21.86
22.41
21.71
11.14
11.45
11.30
58.18
63.29
61.15
5.40
5.88
5.68
25,18
April
May
June
26.23
23.99
23.41
14.05
11.81
11.36
22.81
20.31
19.93
12.59
10.23
9.86
58.93
53.71
64.87
5.47
4.99
6.03
20^02
July
August
September . . .
23.42
22.83
24.28
11.32
11.24
12.13
19.93
18.74
20.22
9.84
9.47
10.36
57.80
59.78
55.95
5.37
5.55
5.20
18! 44
October
November . . ,
December . . .
23.43
23.67
r24.31
11.94
11.53
rl2.74
20.13
19.98
19.68
10.53
9.94
10.75
54.65
50.69
49.55
5.08
4.71
4.60
2U49
January
February
March
23.35
24.21
23.80
11.79
11.76
12.70
20.51
19.18
20.03
10.58
9.62
11.09
66.89
57.77
52.65
6.21
5.37
4.89
20! 18
April
May
June
26.49
28.66
27.69
13.85
14.38
14.48
22.59
22.23
24.29
12.20
11.63
13.01
54.32
61.20
65.40
5.05
5.69
6.08
20^63
July
August
September . . ,
25.10
26.76
29.00
rl2.52
rl3.40
(H>rl5.48
21.58
23.03
25.21
11.02
11.82
1>13.87
61.78
65.26
69.20
5.74
6.06
6.43
H>p22*.B9
October
November , . .
December . . .
ED 30.16
r28.62
P27.46
rl5.25
rl3.97
pl3.93
13)26.00
r24.44
p24.88
13.48
rl2.19
pl2.83
71.35
E>73.65
62.30
6.63
E>6.84
5.79
(NA)
January . . .
February . . ,
• March
90.20
82! 88
74] 15
198;)
70. 04
71.16
Dp73.'4O
(NA)
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September , . ,
October
November . .
December . .
See note on pjge 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
x
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
66
JANUARY 1984
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q j
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued
Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment
Business Investment Expenditures
C Lg, Lg
C, Lg, Lg
C Lg, U
61. Business
expenditures
for new plant
and equipment,
total
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business
construction
expenditures
76. Index of
industrial production, business
equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1967 = 100)
C, Lg, C
Lg, Lg, Lg
C, Lg, C
(Presidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars
86. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
87. Structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L. L, L
L.L, L
28. New
private housing
units started,
total
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
(1967 = 100)
L, L, L
89. Residential
fixed investment total, in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1982
January
February
March
326.95
334.30
344.06
343.89
172.2
171.6
169.0
173.6
54.3
119.3
877
911
920
64.6
66.2
71.3
36.3
April . .
May . .
June . .
321.87
328.44
334.75
332.35
164.9
159.9
156.7
167.1
54.0
113.1
911
1,028
910
71.1
76.8
74.6
37.8
July
August . . ,
September ,
313.76
326.06
316.23
320.13
154.9
153.9
150.5
163.3
53.0
110.3
1,185
1,046
1,134
86.0
75.0
83.1
36.5
October . .
November
December
303.18
308.63
310.31
310.02
147
146,
148.1
160.5
52.2
108.3
1,142
1,361
1,280
93,
99.
107.1
40.6
January .
February
March . .
293.03
307.70
300.14
314.18
146.6
142.7
143.7
159.9
50.3
109.6
1,694
1,784
1,605
116.9
119.5
118.5
45.5
April . .
May . .
June . ,
293.46
312.41
305.68
332.43
146.9
147,
150.
163.0
48.3
114.7
1,506
1,807
1,736
124.
132,
142,
52.6
July
August . .
September
[H>304.70
318.94
321.28
334.51
153.3
156.6
rl58.7
170.1
49.6
120.5
1,804
Dl,904
1,664
E>143.
133
121.6
E>56.8
October . .
November
December
a321.60
r323.58
]H>p340.60
P161.5
H64.4
S>pl65.8
E>pl78.9
.8
rl,654
rl,755
pi,667
131.7
132.6
125.1
p56.1
1983
1984
January .
February
March . .
a323.07
April .
May .
June .
July
August . .
September
October . .
November
Oecember
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
IU II JANUARY 1984
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROqESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q |
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Inventories on Hand and on Order
Inventory Investment
L, L, L
L,L, L
U L
L, L, L
30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
36, Change in inventories on
hand and on order, 1972 dollars
31. Change
in brtok value
of mlfg. and
tr.idd inventories total
38. Change
in stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.
Monthly
data
Smoothed
data1
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
-10*2
-26.62
-23.18
-10.81
-12.21
-19.32
-21.87
-30.1
-28.3
-10.2
-3.4
-4.87
-24.35
-7.56
-16.58
-13.15
-12.80
-1.3
0.37
-16.70
-1.50
-22.7
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Arin. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Book
value
(Bil. dol.)
70. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished
goods, book
value
77. Ratio,
constantdollar inventories to
sales, mfg.
and trade
78. Stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.
(Bil. dol.)
(Ratio)
(Bil. dol.)
L, Lg, Lg
1982
-1.87
-2.82
-1.88
523.65
521.29
520.44
267.83
266,93
266.28
89.14
89.78
89.90
1.78
1.74
1.73
219.69
216.87
214.99
35.2
-51.0
23.1
-3.18
523.37
519.12
521.04
267.04
265.27
265.88
89.19
88.32
87.56
1.75
1.70
1.73
212.91
210.88
207.70
-11.39
-9.24
-6.95
1.3
1.3
-3.1
-1.57
-2.12
-2.45
521.14
521.26
521.00
266.21
265.79
266.01
88.22
88.30
87.79
1.74
1.75
1.76
206.13
204.01
201.56
-20.08
-38.14
-11.29
-9.35
-16.33
-21.54
-14.4
-70.9
-23.4
-1.94
-1.85
-1.69
519.80
513.89
511.94
264.90
262.12
261.21
87.61
86.40
85.07
1.78
1.75
1.74
199.62
197.77
196.07
-15.4
-16.13
6.86
-15.96
-22.51
-14.35
-7.63
-52.7
1.4
-53.3
0.79
1.00
0.71
507.55
507.66
503.22
259.22
259.42
257.57
83.78
83.29
82.41
1.68
1.71
1.67
196.86
197.87
198.57
-5.4
-0.88
12.79
-1.85
-5.87
-2.34
1.00
18,
10,
-1.6
0.13
1.39
1.92
504.80
505.66
505.52
257.22
257.55
257.05
82.04
82.12
81.93
1.66
1.60
1.56
198.70
200.09
202.02
July
August
September . . .
14.14
H>r26.70
r22.10
5.86
rl0.68
rl6.99
3.7
HJI55.2
41.4
2.23
E>3.43
1.59
505.83
510.43
513.88
256.94
258.05
259.29
82.49
82.62
82.09
1.58
3.8
204.25
207.68
209.27
October
November . . .
December . . .
Dp7.5
rl6.32
P18.46
(NA)
E)r21.34
p20.33
(NA)
r25.4
p24.0
(NA)
r2.27
pi. 90
(NA)
r516.00
0>p518.OO
(NA)
r259.59
E>P26O.41
(NA)
r82.12
P82.05
(NA)
1.57
pi.55
(NA)
r211.54
DP213.44
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . ,
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
r
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
68
JANUARY 1984
(NA)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0
Minor Economic
Process
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Stock
Prices
Sensitive Commodity Prices
Timing Class
L, U
98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
materials
Year
and
month
(Percent)
L, L, L
U.L.L
23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrials1
(1967 = 100)
L, L,L
99. Change in sensitive materials
prices
Smoothed
data 2
Monthly
data
(Percent)
(Percent)
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks <g)
(1941-43-10)
Profits and Profit Margins
L, L, L
Lr L, L
Corporate profits after taxes
16. Current
dollars
18. Constant
(1972) dollars
L, C, L
L, C, L
Corporate profits after taxes
with IVA and CCAdj 3
79. Current
dollars
80. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
L, L, L
22. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) to total
corporate
domestic
income
(Percent)
1982
January
February
March
0.87
-1.40
-0.22
263.4
261.0
254.5
0.35
-0.97
-0.89
-1.11
-0.71
-0.53
117.28
114.50
110.84
112^9
55*3
101*7
49*9
6*2
April
May
June . .
-0.76
0.11
0.29
247.4
245.5
232.2
-1.21
-0.18
-1.45
-0.76
-0.89
-0.85
116.31
116.35
109.70
117^4
56.8
105*3
si'i
6*4
July
August
September .
-0.33
-2.46
-0 26
237.0
236.2
239 0
0.41
-1.38
0 19
-0.68
-0.61
-0 53
109.38
109.65
122 43
116*5
56*6
107*6
5**9
6.4
October
November
December
-0.23
-0.57
0.34
235.5
230.4
227.4
-0.51
-0.93
-0.24
-0.41
-0.49
-0.49
132.66
138.10
139.37
113!s
54*2
107.9
51*6
6*6
2.80
3.28
2 25
232.1
241.3
248 8
2.08
E>2.87
2 07
-0.13
0.94
1 96
144.27
146.80
151 88
108*2
51.7
120.3
57*5
5*8
-0.42
2.10
253.2
251.5
250 5
0.31
0.92
1 57
0)2.04
1.42
1 02
157.71
164.10
127*2
60*6
142*2
67*9
6.*7
July
August
September
-0.37
. rl.13
r-0.92
256.0
265.2
267.9
0.47
rl.62
r-0.21
0.96
rl.10
rO.92
166.96
162.42
167.16
|H>144*i
[H>68*5
@>163'4
H>7/'.8
@>7*3
October
November
December
0.77
0.76
0.16
273.4
279.8
[H>282.4
1.01
1.08
0.37
0.72
r0.72
0.72
0)167.65
165.23
164.36
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
1984
"283.8
January
February
March
5
166.74
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
,
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
beginning with June 1981, this series is based on copyrighted data used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 2See footnote 1 on page 68. 3IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
'•Average for January 1 through 24. 5Average for January 4, 11, 18, and 25.
JANUARY 1984
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
M j
L.L.L
L.L.L
81. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income'
15. Profits (after
taxes) per dollar
of sales, all
manufacturing
corporations
(Percent)
(Cents)
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share
Cash Flows
Profits and Profit Margins—Continued
U, L, L
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Continued
L.L.L
L, L, L
26. Ratio, price
Net cash flow, corporate
to unit labor
cost, nonfarm
business sector 34. Current
35. Constant
(1972) dollars
dollaVs
(1977-100)
(Akin, rate,
qii. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
U, Lg. Lg
U , Lg- Lg
63. Index of
unit labor cost,
private business
sector
63. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial
corporations
(1977 = 100)
(Dollars)
Lg, Lg. Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
62. Index of labor cost per
unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
(1967-100)
Actual data
as a percent
of trend
64. Compensation of employees as a percent
of national
income
(Percent)
(Percent)
1982
January .
February
March . .
5.5
3.9
96.8
255.1
121.1
149.9
1.374
226.9
224.2
224.5
104.1
102.2
101.6
75.8
April .
May .
June .
5.6
3.6
96.5
266.3
124! 9
152.9
1.394
226.9
229.1
229.6
102.1
102.4
102.0
75.9
July
August , . .
September ,
5.8
3.5
95.9
272*.4
126.9
154.7
1.403
228.6
227.7
228.2
100.9
99.3
99.4
76.4
October, .
November
December
5.6
2.8
95.8
275! 5
127.9
155.6
1.419
229.3
230.4
230.7
99.3
99.1
98.6
76.4
January .
February
March . .
6.5
3.3
96.3
E78.9
13CL3
156.9
H>1.428
231.8
231.1
229.6
98.4
97.5
96.3
76.1
April
May
June
7.6
4.0
97.6
$10*6
156.0
1.416
228.4
227.6
226.3
95.2
94.2
93.1
75.3
July
August . . ,
September
B.4
.4
E>r98.0
£1)341 ! i
(8)160 A
156.9
1.412
224.0
222.6
221.8
91.6
90.4
89.5
74.9
(NA)
(NA)
p97.9
(NA)
(NA)
E>pl58.8
(NA)
r221.5
r222.2
p222.1
r88.5
p87.9
1983
October . .
November
December
(NA)
1984
January .
February
March . .
April .
May .
June .
July . . . .
August . .
September
October
November . .
December . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
l
IVA, inventor)' valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
70
JANUARY 1984
BCJI
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
MONEY AND CREDIT
Money
L.L.L
85. Change in
money supply
Ml
L, C, U
102. Change
in money
supply M2
Year
L, L, L
L.L.L
104. Change in total liquid assets
Smoothed
Monthly
data
and
Velocity of Money
105. Money
supply Ml
in 1972
dollars
L,L, L
106. Money
supply M2
in 1972
dollars
C.C.C
107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml
Credit Flows
C Lg, C
i . L, L
108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M2
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
month
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
1982
January
February
March
1.63
0.04
0.13
0.85
0.31
0.72
0.85
0.90
0.92
0.85
0.82
0.84
198,
198,
198,
800.9
802.8
808.9
6.743
1.391
1.393
1.387
22.08
16.39
3.53
April
May
June
0.16
0.69
0.22
0.34
0.84
0.75
0.65
1.00
1.08
0.86
0.84
0.88
198.2
197.6
195.9
809.7
808.2
805.6
6.797
1.389
1.388
1.380
8.75
3.22
-9.78
July
August
September . . .
0.22
0.86
1.07
0.88
1.21
0.70
1.13
0.91
0.60
0.99
1.06
0.96
195.2
196.3
198.2
807.9
815.2
820.1
6.739
,377
,359
355
-5.95
-7.22
-10.42
October
1.19
1.13
0.89
0.84
0.75
0.68
199.7
201.9
204.3
822.1
828.6
837.1
6.566
0.75
0.90
0.58
0.49
,357
,354
1.350
-48.32
-9.05
-47.32
0.82
1.87
1.32
i>2.58
2.03
0.93
HH.17
1.01
0.92
0.70
0.82
H>0.96
205.6
209.9
212.4
857.2
876.4
883.4
6.468
1.320
1.292
1.290
20.60
34.81
-48.94
-0.22
H>2.20
0.85
0.24
1.03
0.87
0.61
0.85
0.90
0.94
0.82
0.79
210.7
214.1
215.5
880.4
884.
890.
6.477
1.296
1.297
1.292
5.20
-36.43
29.38
0.74
0.23
0.08
0.56
0.50
0.40
0.95
0.90
0.68
0.84
0.91
0.88
E>216.2
215.8
215.0
891.9
892.5
891.9
6.511
1.292
1.290
1.297
E>r70.91
r70.46
r7.94
0.15
r0.08
p0.54
rO.76
r0.60
pO.46
p0.53
(NA)
pO.77
(NA)
214.4
213.9
p214.5
r894.8
r897.5
.3
H>p6.6U
1.301
rl.3O3
H>pl.3O8
P69.68
(NA)
November . .
December . .
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September.. .
October
November . .
December . .
1984
January . . . .
February . . .
March
2
0.50
April
May
June
July
August . . . .
September . .
October....
November . .
December . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
l
This
2
series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Average for weeks ended January 4 and 11.
JANUARY 1984
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
R l
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
and
month
Credit Flows-Continued
L.L.L
L.L.L-
112. Net change 113. Net
in business
change in
consumer inloans
stallment
credit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Credit Difficulties
L, L, L
L.L.L
111. Change
in credit outstandingbusiness and
consumer
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
percent)
MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
L.L.L
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures @
(Mil. dol.)
Bank Reserves
L, L, L
L, U, U
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, consumer installment loans
93. Free
reserves <§>
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
Interest Rates
L, Lg, U
94. Member
bank borrowing from the
Federal
Reserve <u)
(Mil. dol.)
L. Lg, Lg
C, Lg, Lg
114. Treasury
119. Federal
funds rate <g) bill rate <§)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1952
21.42
8.66
2.62
8.4
7.9
2.8
245,804
March
65.16
62.47
23.77
645.14
913.46
836.01
2.48
2.39
2.24
-1,101
-1,414
-1,254
1,526
1,713
1,611
13.22
14.78
14.68
12.41
13.78
12.49
April
May
June
64.22
45.05
31.64
19.62
18.10
20.90
6.6
4.7
3.2
1,309.33
2,850.45
1,020.25
2.20
293,064
-1,307
-745
-895
1,581
,105
,205
14.94
14.45
14.15
12.82
12.15
12.11
July
August
September
7.98
4.73
22.00
4.70
0.80
10.04
-1.9
1.4
1.2
247,372
-378
-199
-592
669
510
976
12.59
10.12
10.31
11.91
9.01
8.20
October
November
December
2.71
-63.76
-64.46
4.96
15.65
29.03
-4.1
-5.6
-8.1
265,728
-51
-177
-197
455
579
697
9.71
9.20
8.95
7.75
8.04
8.01
32.20
-5.70
11.00
32.70
8.82
30.98
5.7
1.4
-1.2
268,632
46
-122
-415
500
557
852
8.68
8.51
8.77
7.81
8.13
8.30
-32.62
-49.01
5.65
27.25
32.35
52.87
-0.1
-4.5
5.7
E> 386,588
993
902
EH,714
8.80
8.63
8.98
8.25
8.19
8.82
July
August
September
4.58
8.26
-0.48
58.08
40.66
28.50
r9.9
r8.3
1.2
p361,388
October
November
December
r-1.18
rl9.96
E>p67.73
E>58.62
56.05
(NA)
7.8
10.6
H>pl9.2
(NA)
January
February
1,425.60
(NA)
2.18
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
-517
-453
fi>-1,234
1.95
1.90
E>1.88
-875
-1,127
-943
1,382
1,573
1,441
9.37
E>9.56
9.45
9.12
E>9.39
9.05
(NA)
-332
r-383
p-350
837
r912
p748
9.48
9.34
9.47
8.71
8.71
8.96
1
'881
1984
January
February
-175
X
9.71
2
8.93
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
x
Average for weeks ended January 4, 11, and 18.
2
Average for weeks ended January 5, 12, and 19.
72
JANUARY 1984
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
| S
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
Interest Rates-Continued
Lg, Lg, Lg
U, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
117. Municipal
bond yields <u)
118. Secondary
market yields
onFHA
mortgages ©
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business loans
(Percent)
(Percent)
C, Lg, Lg
116. Corporate 115. Treasury
bond yields <§) bond yields ®
Year
and
month
(Percent)
Outstanding Debt
(Percent)
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks ©
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
66. Consumer
installment
credit
Lg, Lg, Lg
Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
(Mil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
101. Constant
(1972) dollars
95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
to personal
income
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
1982
January
February
March
16.34
16.35
15.72
13.73
13.63
12.98
13.28
12.97
12.82
17.38
17.10
16.41
17.13
15.75
16.56
16.50
328,059
328,781
328,999
252,112
257,318
259,299
100,644
102,640
103,637
13.03
12.99
12.97
April
May
June
15.62
15.37
15.96
12.84
12.67
13.32
12.59
11.95
12.45
16.31
16.19
16.73
17.11
16.50
16.50
16.50
330,634
332,142
333,884
264,651
268,405
271,042
105,776
107,062
107,856
12.97
12.93
12.98
July
August
September . . .
15.75
14.64
13.78
12.97
12.15
11.48
12.28
11.23
10.66
16.29
14.61
14.03
13.27
16.26
14.39
13.50
334,276
334,343
335,180
271,707
272,101
273,934
107,735
107,934
109,007
12.91
12.93
12.90
October
November . . .
December . . .
12.63
11.89
12.15
10.51
10.18
10.33
9.69
10.06
9.96
12.99
12.82
12.80
11.26
12.52
11.85
11.50
335,593
336,897
339,316
274,160
268,847
263,475
108,923
106,643
104,347
12.82
12.79
12.83
January
February
March
12.04
12.11
11.81
10.37
10.60
10.34
9.50
9.58
9.20
12.87
12.65
12.68
10.20
11.16
10.98
10.50
342,041
342,776
345,358
266,158
265,683
266,600
105,702
105,179
105,626
12.89
12.93
12.93
April
May
11.58
11.24
11.90
10.19
10.21
10.64
9.05
9.11
9.52
12.50
12.41
12.96
10.31
10.50
10.50
10.50
347,629
350,325
354,731
263,882
259,798
260,269
104,549
102,646
102,508
12.93
12.88
12.98
July
August
September . . .
12.46
H>12.89
12.68
11.10
11.42
11.26
9.53
9.72
9.58
[R>14.23
13.78
13.55
E>11.09
10.50
10.89
11.00
359,571
362,959
365,334
260,651
261,339
261,299
102,377
r102,165
101,950
13.09
13.17
13.13
October
November . . .
December . . .
12.54
12.86
12.87
11.21
11.32
Dll.44
9.66
9.75
E>9.89
13.23
13.23
13.25
10.97
11.00
11.00
E>11.00
370,219
r261,201
r262,864
E>374,890
(NA) [H>p268,508
rl01,556
rlO2,441
P104.518
(H)pl3.23
(NA)
1983
June
rl3.16
1984
January
February
March
l
12.68
2
9.64
3
11.00
April
May
June
July
August
September . .
October
November . . ,
December . . ,
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
l
Average for weeks ended January 6, 13, and 20.
Average for weeks ended January 5, 12, and 19.
Average for January 1 through 24.
2
3
ItCII
JANUARY 1984
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Q
950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 99,106,
111)
Year
and
month
DIFFUSION INDEXES
952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62,77, 91,
95,101,109)
951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)
961. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (20
industries)
963. Number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls
(186 industries)
962. Initial claims for
State unemployment
insurance, week including the 12th1
(51 areas)
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
45.8
58.3
33.3
41.7
41.7
45.8
0.0
87.5
37.5
0.0
50 ..0
50,0
75.0
33.3
33.3
41.7
33.3
33.3
5.0
95.0
12.5
5.0
32.5
22.5
96.1
24.5
5.9
11.8
31.4
43.1
28.5
45.4
36.0
20.2
23.7
25.3
April
May
June
66.7
37.5
37.5
66.7
50.0
45.8
25.0
75.0
0.0
25.0
0.0
0.0
58.3
41.7
58.3
33.3
33.3
33.3
47.5
65.0
80 0
22.5
25.0
85.0
62.7
68.6
19.6
15.7
23.5
9.8
39.0
47.6
32 8
29.8
26.1
26.1
July
August
September .
58.3
58.3
62 5
50.0
41.7
62 5
25.0
0.0
12 5
0.0
0.0
0 0
33.3
50.0
33 3
33.3
16.7
16 7
45.0
37.5
42 5
32.5
60.0
80 0
67.6
9.8
17 6
17.6
72.5
82 4
38.4
37.1
34 1
23.4
19.1
21 2
75.0
58.3
66.7
83.3
87.5
83.3
0.0
50.0
75.0
50.0
50.0
75.0
16.7
0.0
16.7
0.0
8.3
16.7
57.5
65.0
62.5
62.5
82.5
100.0
88.2
60.8
76.5
71.6
66.7
84.3
29.3
32.0
42.2
26.1
26.6
35.8
January
February
March
75.0
66.7
66.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
33.3
50.0
25.0
16.7
16.7
16.7
85.0
7.5
97.5
90.0
90.0
80.0
68.6
57.8
35.3
98.0
96.1
100.0
56.5
45.7
62.4
50.5
63.2
73.4
April
May
June
83.3
70.8
87.5
100.0
100.0
91.7
87.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
33.3
8.3
25.0
16.7
16.7
33.3
92.5
32.5
87.5
87.5
95.0
85.0
80.4
48.0
78.4
84.3
90.2
92.2
69.1
71.0
64.5
76.3
79.3
83.6
July
August
September
70.8
58.3
50.0
91.7
83.3
54.5
75.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
58.3
58.3
25.0
33.3
41.7
"100.0
57.5
55.0
95.0
95.0
p97.5
70.6
7.8
96.1
p90.2
(NA)
68.5
68.0
60.8
r82.5
r82.0
p80.6
6-month
span
1982
January
February .
March
,.
.,
October
November
December
1983
October . . .
November
December
2
66.7
41.7
40.9
2
100.0
100.0
100.0
9
3
41.7
41.7
''83.3
r32.5
42.5
p57 5
58.8
p30.4
(NA)
r70.7
r64.2
p62 9
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
. ..
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures art! the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on th> 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; Hquarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y ® , that appear to contain mo seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
1
Figures are the percent of components declining.
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
''Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
74
JANUARY 1984
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Year
and
month
964. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (34 industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
966. Index of industrial
production (24
industries)
965. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
deflated (17 manufacturing industries)
1-quarter
span
967. Index of spot
market prices, raw
industrials (§)
(13 industrial materials)
968. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks ' (§)
9-month
span
960. Net profits,
manufacturing 1 ®
(about 600 companies)
4-Q moving
average
1-month
span
6-month
span
0.0
12.5
33.3
42.3
34.6
38.5
15.4
30.8
26.9
10.6
34.6
28.8
34.6
42.3
38.5
50
40
33.3
75.0
31.3
20.8
41
30.8
34.6
23.1
26.9
19,
19,
88.5
54.8
11.5
18.0
56.0
79.6
53
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
(4-quarter span)
1982
January
February
March
38.2
47.1
45.6
23.5
26.5
33.8
53
April
May . . . . . . .
June
47.1
61.8
35.3
26.5
23.5
41.2
24
July
August
September . . .
50.0
38.2
50.0
23.5
32.4
52.9
53
October
November . . .
December . . .
38.2
70.6
41.2
44.1
50.0
64.7
77
January
February
March
70.6
52.9
55.9
91.
85.
85.
42
April
May
June
76.5
64.7
64.7
82.4
91.2
83.8
53
July
August
September . . ,
47.1
61.8
58.8
r92.6
p85.3
p50
October
November . . .
December . . .
52.9
r57.4
p55.9
*52
54,
41.7
37.5
33.3
33.3
25.0
37.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
26.9
15.4
23.1
52.9
26.5
100.0
87.8
87.8
89.8
58
*49
60.
52,
41.7
45.8
60.4
75.0
46.2
30.8
46.2
50.0
57.7
65.4
98.0
85.7
51.0
89.8
98.0
100.0
66
*56
25.0
33.3
41.7
79.2
87.5
91.7
61.5
76.9
57.7
80.8
61.5
57.7
63.3
59.2
73.5
100.0
98.0
93.9
71
p56
75.0
58.3
75.0
83.
91,
79.
91.7
95.8
95.8
65.4
46.
46.
80.8
96.2
88.5
81.6
91.8
65.3
89.8
87.5
86.5
(NA)
88.5
80.8
73.1
52,
30,
85,
91.5
80.9
1983
(NA)
(NA)
87.
83,
75.0
r95.8
r95.8
p87.5
57.
73.
57.
75.0
r83.3
p66.7
69.2
76.9
42.3
3
47.9
57.4
61.7
1984
3
January
February
March
42.3
April
May
June
July
August
September . .
October . . . .
November . .
December . .
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
1
Based on 52 industries through August 1982, on 50 industries in September 1982, on 49 industries through August 1983, on 48 industries
through October 1983, and on 47 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the
source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on average for January 3, 10, 17, and 24.
JANUARY 1984
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I DIFF USION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGg-Continued
Q |
Year
and
quarter
DIFFUSION (NDEXES—Continued
9
c. Early
anticipations
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
70.5
65.9
81.8
40.9
59.1
36.4
56.8
68.2
59.1
59.1
84.1
77.3
58
70
62
52
74
74
76
76
50.0
29.5
22.7
25.0
50.0
22.7
31.8
54.5
50.0
54.5
68.2
72.7
52
50
52
56
36.4
36.4
77.3
(NA)
59.1
43.2
90.9
81.8
50.0
40.9
68.2
77.3
66
74
78
(NA)
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
60
66
60
60
70
69
74
72
70
74
71
68
78
76
80
80
60
68
64
60
53
52
52
54
61
66
66
60
63
58
57
60
65
70
72
65
66
77
82
85
62
66
71
(NA)
64
73
80
81
66
74
74
(NA)
68
78
84
86
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
b. Later
anticipations
a. Actual
expenditures
973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade' @
972. Net profits, manufacturing
and tr a d e 1 ®
971. New orders, manufacturing' <}
970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment ( 2 2 industries)
(4-Q span)
1981
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . .
Fourth quarter . . ,
88
52.3
88
84
1
Q | DIFFUSION NDEXES—Continued
Year
and
quarter
974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade' (u)
975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade*1 <u)
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
976. Selling prices, manu
facturing' (§)
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade' <§>
978. Selling prices, retail
tradel (g)
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
51
53
52
52
56
54
56
55
62
64
62
63
63
61
66
64
88
86
84
82
B8
90
39
34
90
88
84
82
90
89
89
84
94
90
86
86
90
90
92
87
48
46
46
46
50
51
51
48
58
52
52
52
54
56
56
50
72
68
63
60
80
76
58
66
72
67
68
61
82
78
72
68
78
75
74
68
82
81
76
72
48
54
58
(NA)
50
56
59
60
54
59
62
<NA)
52
58
62
64
61
60
65
(NA)
65
56
70
59
63
62
68
(NA)
68
64
68
72
68
72
69
(NA)
69
67
70
71
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
62
66
n
72
70
NOTE; Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; |'p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun $ Bradstreet, Inc. Dun §
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.
76
JANUARY X984
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
1983
Diffusion index components
May
June
July
August
September
Novemberr
October
December1
961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
40.0
40.1
40.2
40.3
40.8
40.6
40.6
40.5
Percent rising of 20 components .
(32)
(88)
(58)
(.55)
(95)
(32)
(42)
(58)
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
39.8
39.2
40.0
39.6
39.9
39.7
40.2
39.7
40.5
40.0
40.3
r39.8
39.8
39.8
39.9
40.5
Stone, clay, and glass products...
Primary metal industries
41.2
40.3
41.6
40.3
41.7
40.8
41.7
40.9
42.1
41.2
41.7
41.7
41.7
41.6
41.8
41.2
Fabricated metal products .,
Machinery, except electrical
40.4
40.0
40.5
40.4
40.7
40.7
40.9
40.7
41.6
41.2
41.2
r41.3
41.4
41.4
41.3
41.1
Electric and electronic equipment ..
Transportation equipment
40.3
41.6
40.5
41.9
40.8
42.0
40.7
41.8
41.1
43.5
r41.1
r42.5
41.1
42.4
41.0
41.8
Instruments and related products ..
Miscellaneous manufacturing
40.4
38.8
40.1
38.9
40.7
38.8
40.4
39.1
41.0
39.5
r40.7
39.8
40.5
39.7
40.9
40.3
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers
39.4
37.4
39.8
38.5
39.4
36.8
39.6
37.7
39.9
38.4
39.7
r38.3
39.6
39.0
39.4
36.3
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
40.4
36.1
40.7
36.1
40.7
35.8
40.9
36.2
41.3
36.8
r40.7
36.5
40.7
36.4
41.0
36.5
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
42.7
37.4
42.8
37.6
42.9
37.7
42.9
37.5
43.3
37.8
r43.2
38.0
43.0
38.0
43.0
37.7
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
41.6
43.6
41.9
43.8
41.8
43.7
41.6
43.5
41.7
43.2
41.7
43.5
41.9
43.7
42.0
45.6
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.
Leathc and leather products
41.1
36.8
41.3
36.8
40.9
37.4
41.2
37.2
41.9
37.7
r41.9
37.5
42.0
37.1
42.5
37.2
Durable goods industries:
Nondurable goods industries:
964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES ' '
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
+
84,456
+
(65)
Percent rising of 34 components .
90,905
88,234
(65)
(47)
+
89,978
+
(62)
90,996
+
93,366
+
(53)
(59)
96,524
-
(57)
95,418
(56)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products .
+
+
9,963
10,036
+
+
10,113
10,133
+
-
10,407
9,885
+
+
11,006
10,341
+
+
11,014
10,654
-
10,906
10,518
+
+
11,937
10,836
-
9,755
10,566
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
+
+
14,956
13,849
+
-
15,467
13,432
+
14,844
14,713
+
-
15,391
13,987
+
+
17,233
14,382
+
+
17,509
15,075
-
16,068
14,645
+
+
16,726
15,763
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries..
+
18,377
17,275
+
+
23,442
18,318
-
20,495
17,890
+
-
21,660
17,593
+
19,514
18,199
+
-
21,180
18,178
+
+
24,647
18,391
+
23,976
18,632
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: < + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) - falling.
The "r" indicates revised; " p " ,
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.
JANUARY 1984
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Q |
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS : Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued
Diffusion index components
1983
May
June
August
July
September
October^
November^
Decemberp
366. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION '
(1967 = 100)
+
All hdustrial production
Percent rising of 24 components
144.4
+
(92)
J
146.4
+
149.7
+
(88)
(79)
151.8
+
rl53.8 +
(75)
(83)
155.0
+
156.1 +
156.9
(83)
(67)
+
142.0
180.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
91.1
(75)
Durable manufactures:
Lumber ;ind products
Furniture and fixtures
+
+
135.8
169.6
+
+
137.4 +
173.1 +
141.3
175.2
+
+
141.6
179.0
+
+
142.3
180.7 +
Clay glass and stone products
Primary metals
+
+
139.2
84.9
+
141.7
84.8
+
+
145.8
85.5
+
+
147.9
87.5
+
+
rl51.7 +
r90.6 +
151.9 +
95.1
153.9
92.0
Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery .
+
+
115.5 +
146.1 +
118.5
149.5
+
+
122.7
154.2
+
+
126.0
157.3
+
+
127.4
rl58.3 +
127.2
159.5
+
+
129.3
162.9
+
+
129.7
163.0
+
+
180.1 +
113.8 +
182.4
116.6
+
+
188.3
119.7
+
+
189.2 +
121.1 +
rl95.8 +
124.7 +
198.7
125.5
+
+
200.6
125.8
+
+
203.7
128.2
+
+
156.0
149.0
+
+
156.1 +
151.0 +
159.3
153.7
+
161.6
153.1
rl63.6 +
151.7
164.5
150.4
+
+
165.1 +
151.6 +
167.2
152.5
+
155.6
112.9
+
+
157.7
120.0
+
159.9
112.9
158.2
rll2.7
157.6
109.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
139,6
(NA)
+
141.8
(NA)
+
146.7
(NA)
+
147.4
(NA)
+
148.7 +
(NA)
149.6
(NA)
147.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Paper and products
Printing and publishing ...
+
161.5
145,2
+
+
163.0
147.4
+
+
165.1 +
152.0 +
168.6
157.8
+
+
170.4 +
rl61.7 +
172.1 +
162.7 +
172.5 +
163.1 +
175.0
163.2
Chemicnls and products
Petroleum products
+
+
211.0
123.8
+
214.7
123.0
+
+
218.3
124.3
220.3
123.2
+
+
r224.1 +
125.1
228.1 +
123.6 +
2^8.3
124.2
(NA)
119.8
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
+
+
288.0
59.6
+
+
+
r310.9 +
64.2 +
313.2
64.8
+
+
315.4
66.0
r78.7 +
140.5 +
83.7
142.7
+
+
87.7
144.8
rll6.3 +
126.5 +
117.4
127.4
+
+
119.4
130.0
Electrical machinery
Transpoitation equipment .
. .
Instruments
Miscetla leous manufactures
+
141.7
181.5
Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
.
+
+
159.3
117.1
293.8 +
60.1 +
296.1 +
62.3 +
306.9
64.4
82.5
139.9
+
80.9
141.2
113.9
121.2
+
+
114.7
125.0
-
-
(NA)
(NA)
Mining:
Metal mining
Coal
+
84.4
+
125.6
82.9
124.6
Oil and gas extraction
Stone iind earth minerals ..
+
+
112.51 +
122.9
112.6
121.7
+
+
+
+
NOTE: To acilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change fire shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
l
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
a
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
78
+
+
(NA)
145.2
123.0
(NA)
The "r" indicates revised; "p",
JANUARY 1984
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Co......-ed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
Q
1984
1983
Diffusion index components
May
September
August
July
June
November
October
December
January*
967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS '
Raw industrials
price index (1967 = 100) . . . .
-
251.5 (46)
Percent rising of 13 components
250.5
256.0
265.2
(46)
(58)
(73)
+
267.9 +
273.4 +
(77)
(69)
(58)
279.8 +
282.4 +
(42)
283.8
(42)
Dollars
Copper scrap
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
Lead scrap
(pound)
(kilogram)..
Steel scrap
(US ton)
(metric ton)..
Tin
.
Zinc
(pound)
(kilogram)..
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
-
-
0.482 +
1.063
0.532
1.173
-
0.524
1.155
0.150 +
0.331
0.153 0.337
0.152 +
0.335
0.158
0.348
0.510
1.124
+
0.623 1.373
0.591
1.303
0.604
1.332
-
0.592
1.305
-
0.568
1.252
-
0.124
0.273
0.118
0.260
0.113
0.249
+
0.115
0.254
+
0.122 +
0.269
-
69.600 + 75.500 + 80.000
76.720
83.224
88.184
+
87.400 + 88.750 + 89.000 + 92.600 + 99.250 + 104.250
96.341
97.829
98.105
102.073
109.403
114.915
-
6.208
13.686
+
0.404
0.891
-
6.158
13.576
_
6.110
13.470
_
5.950
13.117
-
+
0.405
0.893
+
0.411
0.906
+
0.440
0.970
+
0.464 +
1.023
0.471 +
1.038
0.244
0.267
+
0.252
0.276
-
0.250
0.273
+
0.258
0.282
+
0.266 +
0.291
-
5.762
12.703
0.494 o
1.089
0.494 +
1.089
0.507
1.118
0.287 +
0.314
0.300 +
0.328
0.316
0.346
-
0.311
0.340
0.756 1.667
0.721
1.590
5.960 + 6.046
5.932 +
13.078
13.139
13.329
-
5.890
12.985
Burlap
(yard).,
(meter)..
Cotton
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
+
0.692
1.526
+
0.726
1.601
-
0.720
1.587
+
0.748
1.649
-
0.735 o
1.620
0.735 +
1.620
0.758
1.671
(yard)
(meter)..
+
0.584
0.639
_
0.576
0.630
+
0.615
0.673
+
0.638
0.698
+
0.686 +
0.750
0.772 +
0.844
0.846 +
0.925
0.850
0.930
-
0.848
0.927
Wool tops . . .
(pound)
(kilogram)..
o
3.200
7.055
0
3.200
7.055
0
3.200
7.055
+
3.340
7.363
+
3.550 o
7.826
3.550 o
7.826
3.550 7.826
3.500 o
7.716
3.500
7.716
Hides
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
+
0.605 +
1.334
0.618
1.362
+
0.692
1.526
_
0.674
1.486
-
0.632 +
1.393
,
0.635 +
1.400
0.666
1.468
-
0.649 o
1.431
0.649
1.431
Rosin
(100 pounds)
(100 kilograms)..
o
47.000
103.616
47.000
103.616
0
47.000
103.616
0
47.000
103.616
o
Rubber
(pound)
(kilogram)..
-
0.568
1.252
0.555
1.224
+
0.581
1.281
+
0.596
.1.314
+
0.599 o
1.321
0.599
1.321
Tallow
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
-
0.164
0.362
0.150
0.331
0
0.150
0.331
+
0.186
0.410
-
0.180 0.397
0.168 +
0.370
Print cloth
0
-
47.000 o 47.000 o 47.000 •o 47.000 o 47.000
103.616
103.616
103.616
103.616
103,616
-
0.584
1.287
-
0.176 o
0.388
-
0.576
1.270
0.176 +
0.388
0.192
0.423
0.581
1.281
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) - falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
l
The index is the average for January 1 through 24; component prices are averages for January 3, 10, 17, and 24.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written.permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
JANUARY 1984
79
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Q j
Year
and
quarter
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
217, Per capita
GNP in 1972
dollars
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars
200. Gross national product in current dollars
a. Total
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
b. Difference
a. Total
c. Perceht
change at
annual rate
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
213. Final sales
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
2,866.6
2.912.5
3,004.9
3,032.2
130.6
45.9
92.4
27.3
20.5
6.6
13.3
3.7
1.510.1
1.512.5
1,525.8
1.506.9
32.2
2.4
13.3
-18.9
9.0
0.7
3.6
-4.9
6,592
6,588
6,629
6,529
1,507.0
1,503.6
1.509.7
1,500.9
3,021.4
3,070.2
3,090.7
3,109.6
-10.8
48.8
20.5
18.9
-1.4
6.6
2.7
2.5
1,485.8
1.489.3
1,485.7
1,480.7
-21.1
3.5
-3.6
-5.0
-5.5
1.0
-1.0
-1.3
6,424
6,425
6,393
6,355
1,495.9
1,492.7
1,487.0
1,503.4
,3,171.5
3,272.0
3,362.2
p3,432.0
61.9
100.5
90.2
p69.8
8.2
13.3
11.5
p8.6
1,490.1
1,525.1
1,553.4
pi,570.5
9.4
35.0
28.3
P17.1
2.6
9.7
7.6
p4.5
6,382
6,518
6,622
p6,679
1,505.5
1.530.5
1,549.7
pi,563.0
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Q
^ Q j GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME—ContiViued
Year
and
quarter
Dsposable personal income
224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
230. Total in current
dollars
231. Total in 1972
dollars
232. Durable goods
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
233. Durable goods
ir l 1972 dollars
227. Per capita in
1973 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1,967.6
2,010.4
2,092.0
2,120.5
1,040.7
1,045.6
1,068.1
1,064.3
4,543
4,554
4,640
4.612
1,802.8
1,835.8
1,886.1
1,904.1
953.6
954.7
962.9
955.7
236.9
233.4
243.5
230.8
145.4
140.5
143.9
134.8
2,127.9
2,159.0
2,191.5
2,227.8
1,055.1
1,060.2
1.059.3
1.066.1
4,562
4,574
4,558
4,576
1,938.9
1,972.8
2,008.8
2,046.9
961.4
968.8
971.0
979.6
239.4
242.9
243.4
252.1
138.5
139.5
138.2
143.2
2,255.9
2,301.0
2.361.7
p2,423.6
1,073.8
1,083.0
1,100.1
pi,120.3
4,599
4,629
4,690
p4,764
2,073.0
2,147.0
2,181.1
p2,233.1
986.7
1,010.6
1,016.0
pi,032.2
258.5
277.7
282.8
p295.2
145.8
156.5
157.9
P163.6
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
.. .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§) t that appear ta contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.
80
JANUARY 1984
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
^ H
Year
and
quarter
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
i
ffl GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued
238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
239, Services in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
240. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
241. Total in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
242. Fixed investment, total, in
current dollars
243. Fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1981
716.3
730.6
741.1
747.7
359.8
362.7
363.6
363.8
849.6
871.8
901.5
925.6
448.3
451.5
455.5
457.1
455.5
472.1
495.8
476.2
222.7
229.5
236.3
221.7
444.7
457.1
462.2
461.8
219.7
220.7
220.2
215.7
749.7
754.7
766.6
773.0
362.6
363.5
364.7
366.0
949.7
975.2
998.9
1,021.8
460.4
465.7
468.2
470.4
422.9
432.5
425.3
377.4
199.7
201.4
198.4
178.4
448.6
443.7
430.2
433.8
209.9
204.9
199.8
201.1
777.1
799.6
814.8
P825.9
368.9
374.7
378.1
p383.3
1,037.4
1,069.7
1,083.5
472.0
479.4
480.1
P485.3
404.1
450.1
501.1
p529.8
190.0
210.2
230.7
P242.5
443.5
464.6
492.5
P512.1
205.4
215.6
227.0
p235.0
266. State and
local government
in current dollars
267. State and
local government
in 1972 dollars
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
pi,112.0
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
• •
H i
Year
and
quarter
GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST-Con,
245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
j M
260. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
261. Total in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars
263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.) •
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
10.9
15.0
33.6
14.3
3.0
8.9
16.1
6.0
576.3
583.5
600.3
622.8
285.6
284.1
286.8
289.6
215.7
220.4
232.4
248.5
107.3
107.9
111.8
114.5
360.5
363.2
367.9
374.3
178.3
176.2
175.0
175.1
-25.7
-11.2
-4.9
-56.4
-10.2
-3.4
-1.3
-22.7
629.8
631.6
655.7
679.7
289.4
285.8
292.2
299.7
249.7
244.1
261.7
279.2
114.5
110.3
116.9
124.4
380.0
387.5
394.0
400.5
174.9
175.4
175.3
175.2
-39.4
-14.5
8.5
pl7.7
-15.4
-5.4
3.8
P7.5
677.4
683.4
698.3
P701.7
292.9
292.1
295.2
p293.2
273.5
273.7
278.1
p275.6
118.4
117.6
118.9
P116.9
404.0
409.7
420.2
P426.1
174.5
174.5
176.3
P176.3
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.
JANUARY 1984
81
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
2 J FOREIGN
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
280. Compensation of
1
257. Constant
(1972) dollars
253 Current
dollars
256. Constant
(1972) dollars
252. Current
dollars
255. Constant
(1972) dollars
220. National income in current
dollars
m ports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services
Net exports of goods and services
250. Current
dollars
W/m
NATIONAL INCOME
H I AND ITS COMPONENTS
TRADE
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1981
First qua 1er
Second quarter
Third quater
Fourth quarter . . . .
31.9
21.1
22.8
29.2
48
44.
39.
39
3
1
8
9
367.3
369.2
367.5
371.0
160.6
160.7
159.0
158.7
335 .4
348 . 1
344 .7
341 .7
112.
116.
119.
118.
4
6
1
8
2,295 .8
2,337 .2
2,423 .4
2,435 .6
1,718.8
1,750.9
1,791.7
1,815.6
29.9
33.3
0.9
5.6
35 2
33. 4
24. o
23. 0
358.4
364.5
346.0
321.6
151.8
154.5
146.4
136.5
328 .5
331 .2
345 .0
316 . 1
116.
121.
122.
113.
6
1
4
5
2,419 .7
2,448 .9
2,458 .9
2,474 .0
1,834.2
1,859.9
1,879.5
1,889.0
5
3
4
5
326.9
327.1
341.1
P348.1
137.3
136.2
140.7
P141.5
309 .9
335 .6
359 .4
p380 .7
116. 8
123. 9
129. 2
pl39. 0
2,528 .5
2,612 .8
2,686 .9
(NA)
1,923.7
1,968.7
2,011.8
p2,056.0
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quaier
Second quarter . . . .
Third quater
Fourth quarter . . . .
17.0
-8.5
-18.3
p-32.6
20.
12
11.
P2
1)84
First quarter
Second qjarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth qiarter . . . .
Q
Vear
Tear
snd
quarter
282. Proprietors'
income with inven
tory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
NATIONAL 1NCOME AND
284. Renta 1 income
of persons with
capital consumption adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bii. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Q
ITS COMPONENTS-Continued
286. Corporate
profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
290. Gross saving
(private and government)
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann rate,
bil. dol.)
SAVING
292. Personal
saving
295. Business
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1*181
First quarter ,
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . .
: Fourth quarter . . . .
121.
118.
123.
117.
1
9
5
1
37. 4
39. 9
42. 7
45. 6
194.7
185.0
197.6
192.0
223 7
242 6
268 o
265 3
461.8
475*8
507.6
490 A
356.6
365 ! l
381.9
393! 8
112.2
120^2
149.7
159*.O
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third qua'ter
Fourth quarter . . . .
111.
104.
103.
116.
2
9
6
2
47. 4
49. 0
50. 9
52. 3
162.0
166.8
168.5
161.9
265 o
268 3
256 4
254 7
434 4
439! 5
397.9
351.3
383.3
393^6
401.9
405.8
130.8
120.
127.
126.
pl39.
6
2
7
7
54.1
54. 8
53.9
p56. 2
181.8
218.2
248.4
(NA)
3
8
1
4
398.5
420.6
455.4
(NA)
419.7
443.4
471.4
(NA)
121.7
91.5
115.8
P123.5
127ll
123.0
120.8
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
248
243
246
p250
First quarer
Second quarter . . . .
Third quaiter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note «n page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
82
JANUARY 1984
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Q j SAVING-Continued
Year
and
298. Government
surplus or deficit,
Q
293. Personal
saving rate
Percent of gross national product
^percent OT disposable personal
income)
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total
(Percent)
(Percent)
248. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Percent)
249. Residential
fixed investment
(Percent)
247. Change in
business inventories
251. Net exports of
goods and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
-8.1
-10.6
-25.2
-63.7
5.7
6.0
7.2
7.5
62.9
63.0
62.8
62.8
11.6
11.9
-79.7
-81.2
-127.0
-175.3
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.4
-142.9
-114.4
-131.8
(NA)
5.4
4.0
4.9
p5.1
12.0
12.1
3.9
3.8
3.4
3.1
0.4
0.5
1.1
0.5
1.1
0.7
0.8
1.0
64.2
64.3
65.0
65.8
12.0
11.5
11.1
10.8
2.9
3.0
2.8
3.1
-0.9
-0.4
-0.2
-1.8
1.0
l.'l
0.0
0.2
65.4
65.6
64.9
p65.1
10.5
10.3
10.4
pl0.8
3.5
3.9
4.2
p4.1
-1.2
-0.4
0.5
-0.3
-0.5
p-0.9
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
0.3
p0.5
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Mm
Year
and
quarter
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued
Percent of GNP-Continued
F'ercent of national income
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj >
285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj'
(Percent)
(Percent)
289. Net interest
287. Corporate
profits with IVA
and CCAdj'
(Percent)
(Percent)
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
7.5
7.6
7.7
8.2
12.6
12.5
12.2
12.3
74.9
74.9
73.9
74.5
5.3
5.1
5.1
4.8
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
8.5
7.9
8.2
7.9
9.7
10.4
11.1
10.9
8.3
8.0
8.5
9.0
12.6
12.6
12.7
12.9
75.8
75.9
76.4
76.4
4.6
4.3
4.2
4.7
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.5
11.0
11.0
10.4
10.3
8.6
8.4
8.3
p8.0
12.7
12.5
12.5
pl2.4
76.1
75.3
74.9
(NA)
4.8
4.9
4.7
(NA)
2.1
2.1
2.0
(NA)
7.2
8.4
9.2
(NA)
9.8
9.3
9.2
(NA)
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
X
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
JANUARY 1984
83
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Q l PRICE MOVEMENTS
Implicit price deflator,
gross national product
Year
art)
moith
310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spansl
310. Index
(1972 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Fixed-weight* price index,
gross business product
311. Index
(1972 = 100)
< 311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans!
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Consumer prices, all terns
Consumer prices, food
320. Index ®
320c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
320c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(1967=100)
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
322. Index
(1967=100)
322c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
322c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1<I82
January
February
March
....
4.3
203.4
• .
•
206! 2
2i3!ii
3.7
July
August
September
208! 6
October .
November
December
2i6!6
282.5
283.4
283.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
2.9
4.0
5.5
281.3
282.6
282.8
0.7
0.5
0.1
3.3
4.7
5.6
4.5
284.3
287.1
290.6
0.2
1.0
283.3
285.4
287.1
0.2
0.7
4.5
3.1
1.1
6.1
6.6
6.9
0.6
3.4
5.8
292.2
292.8
293.3
0.6
0.3
0.1
7.2
5.1
2.3
287.6
286.9
287.5
0.2
-0.2
0.2
3.4
2.0
0.7
3.8
294.1
293.6
292.4
0.4
0.0
-0.3
1.4
0.4
0.5
288.1
288.2
288.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.8
3.6
293.1
293.2
293.4
0.2
-0.2
0 1
0.8
1.9
2 9
288.3
288.3
290 1
0.1
0.0
06
2.2
2.8
2 2
4.1
295.5
297.1
298.1
0.6
0.5
291.3
292.2
291.3
0.4
0.3
-0.3
1.9
2.3
0.2
3.4
4.7
5.4
4.7
299.3
300.3
301.8
0.4
0.4
0.5
5.1
4.6
4.7
291.0
291.6
292.5
-0.1
0.2
0.3
1.8
1.4
2.9
p4.5
302.6
303.1
303.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
293.9
294.3
295.5
0.5
0.1
0.4
...
5.6
April
May
June
4.9
211.4
216\8
3.8
218! 8
1983
5.5
January
February
March
ZIZ'.8
220! 8
. .
3.3
April
May
June
214^6
July
August
Septembe-
216*4
October
November
December
p218!5
223! 6
...
3.6
22EL6
p3.9
p228!i
1.7
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
Novembc
DecembeSee note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the "2d quarter.
JANUARY 1984
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
^ M
Producer prices, all commodities
Year
and
month
330. Index ®
330c. Change
over 1-month
spans' ®
(1967 = 100)
(Percent)
PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
Producer ijrices, industrial commodities
330c. Change
over 6-month
335. Index ®
l
1
spans ®
(Ann. rate,
percent)
335c. Change
over 1-month
spans
(1967 = 100)
®
(Percent)
Producer prices, crude materials
335c. Change
over 6-month
331. Index
spans' ®
(Ann. rate,
percent) n
(1967 = 100)
331c. Change
over 1-month
spans '
(Percent)
331c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1982
298.3
298.6
298.0
-0.2
298.0
298.6
299.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
July
August
September
300.4
300.2
299.3
October
November
December
0.8
1.3
0.1
2.1
2.4
311.8
311.6
311.0
-0.2
0.6
0.2
0.4
320.2
317.9
317.0
1.6
-0.7
-0.3
-1.1
5.3
6.9
0.9
309.9
309.6
310.6
-0.4
-0.1
0.3
0.6
1.0
1.1
320.8
326.4
325.8
1.2
1.7
-0.2
1.2
0.8
-1 0
0.4
-0.1
-0.3
1.2
1.1
0.9
312.8
313.2
312.7
0.7
0.1
-0.2
2.9
3.5
3.0
322.1
319.1
315.4
-1.1
-0.9
-1.2
-4.0
-5.5
-5.6
299.8
300.3
300.7
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.5
0.9
314.3
315.0
315.2
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.7
0.4
0.5
314.3
317.3
316.6
-0.3
1.0
-0.2
-3.9
-1.4
2.2
January
February
March
299.9
300.9
300.6
-0.3
0.3
-0.1
0.5
0,8
1.1
313.9
313.9
313.5
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
-1.2
-0.9
0.1
315.8
316.8
318.9
-0.3
0.3
0.7
6.2
4.3
4.5
April .
May
June
300.6
301.5
302.4
0.0
0.3
0.3
2.2
r2.5
3.2
312.4
313.6
315.3
-0.4
0.4
0.5
1.7
r2.2
2.4
323.9
324.1
323.6
1.6
0.1
. -0.2
2.5
r6.3
5.8
July
August
September
303.2
r304.7
305.3
0.3
r0.5
r0.2
3.8
2.7
2.4
316.5
r317.3
317.2
0.4
0.3
rO.O
4.1
3.0
2.0
319.7
r326.7
328.0
-1.2
r2.2
r0.4
2.0
2.6
5 1
October
November
December
306.3
305.6
306.0
0.3
-0.2
0.1
318.7
318.3
318.4
0.5
-0.1
0 0
327.2
328.3
331 8
-0.2
0.3
1 1
January
February
March
April
- May
June
1.4
1.1
0.6
-0.1
1983
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
Changes are centered within the spans:
JANUARY 1984
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
85
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
C M
332. Index
332c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(1967 = 100)
(Percent)
Producer prices, finished consumer goods
Producer prices, capital equipment
Producer prices, intermediate materials
Year
and
month
PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
332c. Changs
over 6-month
spansl
(Ann. rate,
percent)
333. Index
(1967-100)
333c. Change
over 1-month
spansl
(Percent)
333c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
334. Index
(1967-100)
334c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(Percent)
334c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1982
274.9
-0.8
274.5
276.0
0.5
-0.1
0.5
4.6
4.1
4.4
278.0
278.3
277.0
0.4
0.1
-0.5
1.5
0.7
2.2
0.1
0.3
-1.0
-0.4
0.8
276.5
277.8
279.5
0.2
0.5
0.6
4.1
5.8
4.3
277.3
276.9
280.0
0.1
-0.1
1.1
2.5
3.1
4.4
310.3
310.3
310.8
0.2
0.0
0.2
1.6
2.0
1.4
280.5
282.3
281.9
0.4
0.6
-0.1
4.0
3.9
3.5
281.5
282.6
283.0
0.5
0.4
0.1
5.2
6.8
5.1
310.9
311.7
311.8
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
-1,4
282.0
283.1
284.4
0.0
0.4
0.5
2.4
1.9
2.8
284.4
286.2
287.0
0.5
0.6
0.3
-0.6
January
February
March
310.1
309.8
308.6
-0.5
-0.1
-0.4
-2.4
-2.0
-0.4
283.9
285.0
285.8
-0.2
0.4
0.3
2.6
2.2
1.8
283.1
283.4
282.2
-1.4
0.1
-0.4
-1.5
-2.3
-1.7
April
May
June
307.2
308.6
311.1
-0.5
0.5
0.8
1.2
r2.5
4.9
285.6
286.2
287.0
-0.1
0.2
0.3
2.6
r3.0
2.1
282.3
282.9
284.5
0.0
0.2
0.6
rl.6
3.0
July .
August
September
312.0
r.313.6
316.1
0.3
r0.5
r0.8
6.5
5.8
4.1
287.5
r289.3
288.8
0.2
r0.6
r-0.2
284.7
r285.6
286.4
0.1
3.6
2.4
2.2
0.3
0.3
2.6
2.0
October
November
December
317.0
317.4
317.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
289.6
289.6
290.1
0.3
0.0
0.2
287.3
286.6
287.3
0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.3
January
February
March
311.9
311.0
309.6
April
-0.4
June
308.4
308.7
309.7
July
August
September
October
November
December
May
-0.3
-0.5
-1.2
-1.3
1.1
0.6
1983
2.8
1.1
198-1
January
February .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November . . . ,
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
l
Changes are centered within the spans:
86
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
JANUARY 1984
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
D
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adjuster
Year
and
month
Real earnings
Current-dollar earnings
340. Index
(1977-100)
340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
1
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
341. Index
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1977=100)
341c. Change
over 1-month
spans *
(Percent)
Current-dollar compensation
341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
345. Index
(1977 = 100)
345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans:
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1982
January
February
March
144.9
145.1
145.5
1.1
0.1
0.3
6.5
6.4
6.6
93.1
93.1
93.5
0.9
0.1
0.4
3.9
2.5
1.3
April
May
June
146.4
147.5
148.0
0.6
0.7
0.4
5.4
6.3
6.3
93.8
93.5
92.8
0.3
-0.7
-0.3
-0.7
-0.3
-0.9
153.1
July
August ,
September
148.8
149.6
150.0
0.5
0.5
5.9
4.9
5.4
92.8
93.0
93.1
-0.1
0.2
-1.5
-0.2
2.8
155.7
0.3
0.2
10.0
151.6
5.7
5.4
5.1
4.6
93.1
93.4
94.1
-0.1
4.2
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.8
5.1
4.1
January
February
March
152.7
153.4
153.4
0.5
0.4
0.0
4.5
4.7
3.9
94.7
95.3
95.0
0.6
0.7
-0.3
3.8
2.8
1.3
160! 6
April
May
June
154.0
154.6
154.8
0.4
3.3
2.1
3.2
94.8
94.7
94.8
-0.2
-0.1
162.2
0.0
-0.1
-2.7
-1.7
July
August
September
155.2
155.0
155.9
-0.2
0.6
r3.7
r2.9
p3.6
94.7
94.0
94.2
-0.1
-0.7
0.2
r-0.9
r-1.0
p-0.4
rl63.8
rl56.8
rl56.8
P157.6
r0.6
0.0
p0.5
94.4
0.2
r-0.1
p0.3
.. .
....
0.4
7.1
7.1
150.7
151.1
151.9
October
November
December
7.6
6.3
5.8
157.9
5.9
1983
October
November
December
... .
0.4
0.2
0.3
r94.3
p94.6
6.8
r's'.2
4.1
p5.0
r4.0
p5.0
pl65!8
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
,
. .
July
August
September
October
November
December
..
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
l
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
'Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month,
ter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
IN:
JANUARY 1984
1-quar-
87
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector-Continued
Year
348. First year
average changes
Real compensation
and
month
346. Index
(1977-100)
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries ®
346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
346c. Change
over 4-quarteir
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
349. Average
changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per hour, alt persons, private
business sector
370. Index
(1977=100)
358. Index of
output per hour
all persons,
nonfarm
business sector
370c. Change
over 1-quarter
370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans l
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1977-100)
-1.1
100.0
0.7
99.9
1.3
100.4
r3.2
100.8
r3.1
101.7
p2.8
rlO3.5
1982
6.8
January .
February
March . .
96.7
April .
May .
June .
96.8
July . . . .
August . .
September
96.7
October
November . . .
December . . .
97.6
1.7
0.4
1.9
1.2
2.6
2.1
101.1
2.6
3.7
-1.6
100.7
2.5
-0.7
-0.4
6.2
4.7
3.3
4.8
1.7
101.1
2.5
3.3
101.9
1983
7.2
January .
February
March . .
99.3
April .
May .
June .
99.3
-0.1
r-0.7
July
August . .
September
r99.1
October . .
November
December
p99.1
-1.6
p0.2
pi.6
r4.5
r4.9
p5.0
2.0
1.4
102.5
r2.5
r3.7
r4.3
r5.9
rlO3.9
rlO4.2
p3.0
rl.2
r104.0
p2.2
P104.8
P104.3
1984
January
February
March
April .
May . . . ,
June
July
August . .
September
October . .
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
a
Changes an; centered within the spans:
on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
1-quarter changes areplaced on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are placed
JANUARY 1984
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C
|
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
D
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
441. Total
Revised
Labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over
442. Employed
1
Revised
452. Females
20 years
and over
(Percent)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
1 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
1
Revised
(Percent)
1
Revised
453. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age
Revised
37. Total
(Thous.)
(Percent)
1
448. Number employed
part-time
for economic
reasons
Number unemployed
1
Revised
444. Males
20 years
arid over
445. Females
20 years
and over
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
1
Revised
1
Revised
446. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
1
Revised
447. Fulltime
workers
1
Revised
(Thous.)
1
Revised 1
1982
January
February
March
109,075
109,503
109,664
99,682
99,810
99,754
78.6
78.7
78.7
52.2
52.4
52.6
54.2
54.8
54.2
9,393
9,693
9,910
4,374
4,427
4,615
3,117
3,293
3,405
1,902
1,973
1,890
7,820
7,989
8,335
4,961
5,413
5,591
April
May
June
109,901
110,542
110,133
99,598
100,179
99,653
78.8
79.0
78.8
52.6
52.9
53.0
54.5
55.5
52.4
10,303
10,363
10,480
4,766
4,787
5,065
3,571
3,568
3,550
1,966
2,008
1,865
8,605
8,739
8,914
5,756
5,781
5,696
July
August
September
110,399
110,473
110,679
99,503
99,563
99,412
78.8
78.6
78.9
53.0
53.0
52.8
53.2
53.9
54.1
10,896
10,910
11,267
5,207
5,245
5,563
3,682
3,668
3,693
2,007
1,997
2,011
9,128
9,188
9,580
5,627
5,886
6,436
October
November
December
110,690
110,923
110,873
99,146
99,036
98,979
78.8
78.8
78.6
52.7
52.9
53.0
54.2
54.5
53.7
11,544
11,887
11,894
5,710
5,847
5,836
3,814
3,995
4,026
2,020
2,045
2,032
9,907
10,115
10,171
6,445
6,344
6,367
January
February . . . . . . . .
March
110,677
110,688
110,735
99,154
99,172
99,316
78.2
78.2
78.2
53.0
52.9
52.9
53.5
53.1
53.2
11,523
11,516
11,419
5,623
5,717
5,595
3,979
3,933
3,891
1,921
1,866
1,933
9,811
9,865
9,744
6,678
6,362
6,169
April
May
June
110,975
110,950
111,905
99,606
99,762
100,743
78.4
78.4
78.7
52.9
52.8
53.2
53.0
52.6
54.7
11,369
11,188
11,162
5,682
5,583
5,352
3,780
3,748
3,837
1,907
1,857
1,973
9,727
9,514
9,332
6,077
5,965
5,886
July
August
September . . . . . . .
111,825
112,117
112,229
101,225
101,484
101,876
78.7
78.6
78.6
53.1
53.3
53.4
53.7
54.4
53.8
10,600
10,633
10,353
5,217
5,150
5,065
3,524
3,598
3,512
1,859
1,885
1,776
8,985
8,964
8,747
5,700
5,866
6,027
October
November
December
111,866
112,035
112,136
101,970
102,606
102,941
78.4
78.4
78.3
53.2
53.2
53.2
52.8
53.3
53.7
9,896
9,429
9,195
4,809
4,596
4,392
3,366
3,215
3,181
1,721
1,618
1,622
8,319
7,900
7,658
5,724
5,848
5,712
1983
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 5 1 .
^ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
KCII JANUARY 1984
89
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Q |
State and local governmentsl
Federal Government
Year
and
month
JSM
RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
Advance measures of defense activity
517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred
525. Defense
Department
military prime
contract
awards
543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding
548. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dot.)
9,756
13,761
9,870
98,818
102,677
105,418
7,151
6,922
6,688
20,793
17,786
17,503
10,518
9,657
14,296
108,428
108,841
109,654
6,204
5,013
5,994
41l)4
17,669
16,448
18,387
8,610
8,928
10,296
110,885
110,787
111,857
5,195
5,656
3,638
450)7
417.'8
16,476
18,599
24,396
5,423
10,209
17,298
111,866
113,647
119,788
5,621
5,663
11,207
46)4
461) 7
42l)3
21,340
19,502
20,444
16,908
13,042
7,351
122,628
123,803
125,570
9,568
5,319
6,569
818)7
5l)7
478 '.7
427)6
19,332
19,554
21,518
10,132
10,111
10 814
126,165
126,532
129 720
7,079
4,782
7 939
645)2
832! 5
55.'5
492)7
437)l
19,409
20,489
20,388
11,017
10,727
plO.921
131,172
130,829
133,056
6,901
4,545
4,946
(NA)
p847)6
(NA)
p443)5
pl7,201
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p!31,130
(NA)
5,525
r8,068
p7,237
501. Receipts
502. Expenditures
510. Surplus
on deficit
511. Receipts
512. Expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
January
February
March
-10o\5
619^5
728! 6
28)8
425)9
397)2
19,361
20,608
18,869
April
May
June
-II3I2
622!2
735.'4
32)6
436.' 8
404)8
July
August
September
-15&\3
615)2
773.'5
3l)3
442)&*
October
November
December
-208)2
612)6
820)9
32)9
January
February
March
-183!3
623)3
806)6
April
May
June
-166!i
652! 6
July
August
September
-187)3
October
November
December
(NA)
500. Surplus
or deficit
DEFENSE INDICATORS
1982
1983
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1
Based on national income and product accounts.
90
JANUARY 1984
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continued
National defense
purchases
Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month
557. Output of
defense and
space equipment
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products
561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products
580. Defense
Department
net outlays
(1967 = 100)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products
570. Employment in defense products
industries
(Mil. dol.)
(Thous.)
Defense Department
personnel
577. Military,
active duty (g)
578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment ®
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
565. Federal
purchases as
a percent of
GNP
(Percent)
1982
January
February
March
105.2
106.5
107.0
13,676
13,864
14,059
81,144
83,719
85,990
14,152
14,689
15,075
4,083
4,347
4,417
1,386
1,380
1,377
2,104
2,109
2,107
1,008
1,013
1,018
168.1
5.6
April
May
June
107.2
107.7
107.6
14,209
14,276
14,431
87,917
88,258
89,371
15,670
15,379
15,334
4,277
4,672
4,881
1,376
1,372
1,371
106
104
108
1,022
1,028
1,045
175.2
5.7
July
August
September . . .
109.5
109.5
109.5
14,437
14,700
15,039
89,708
90,598
89,255
16,312
15,050
16,881
4,858
4,766
4,981
1,372
1,364
1,366
2,110
2,109
2,109
1,051
1,043
990
183.6
5.9
October
November . . .
December . . .
111.9
113.6
115.9
15,334
15,568
15,983
89,866
90,561
96,691
15,972
17,087
16,779
5,010
4,968
5,077
1,363
1,363
1,359
2,108
2,114
2,113
1,016
1,024
1,027
190.8
6.1
January
February
March
116.4
116.1
117.0
16,538
16,501
16,824
101,116
101,179
102,632
17,058
16,772
16,804
5,143
5,255
5,116
1,355
1,358
1,355
2,120
2,122
2,127
1,024
,028
,030
194.4
6.1
April
May
June
118.2
117.6
118.0
16,850
17,240
17,311
104,440
104,046
106,648
17,529
16,854
17,189
5,271
5,176
5,337
1,358
1,362
1,367
2,123
2,120
2,116
,029
,040
,049
199.4
6.1
July
August
September . . .
120.4
120.2
121.8
17,348
17,805
17,448
107,865
106,967
106,484
16,975
18,455
17,463
5,683
5,442
5,428
1,373
1,356
1,375
2,113
2,115
2,123
1,053
1,052
1,026
201.2
6.0
October
November . . .
December . . .
rl22.9
rl23.9
P125.7
17,282
17,337
106,418
rlO8,822
pllO.561
pl7,781
(NA)
5,592
r5,662
p5,497
rl,380
1,378
pi,383
2,120
2,126
p2,124
pi,034
p206.2
p6.0
1983
(NA)
(NA)
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
August . . ,
September
October . .
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
JANUARY 1984
91
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
MERCHANDISE TRADE
Ytar
and
month
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil. dot.)
.604. Exports of domestic agricultural
products
(Mil.dol.)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
(Mil. dol.)
612. General imports,
total
(Mil. dol.)
614. Imports of
petroleum and
petroleum products
(Mil. dol.)
616. Imports of
automobiles and parts
(Mil. dol.)
1S82
January
February
March . . . . . .
18,584
18,614
18,462
3,258
3,590
3,225
4,346
4,054
3,997
22,573
19,570
20,018
6,810
4,396
4,290
2,389
2,135
2,596
April
May
June
18,005
18,124
18,823
3,400
3,527
3,332
3,932
3,957
4,211
17,714
20,477
21,187
3,894
4,180
4,855
2,389
2,785
2,626
July
August
September . . .
18,060
17,463
17,320
2,739
2,763
2,648
4,305
3,856
4,197
19,849
22,930
20,581
5,624
5,731
4,903
2,455
2,795
2,370
October
November . . .
December . . .
16,671
15,852
16,347
2,681
2,783
2,637
3,829
3,686
3,719
21,006
18,892
19,154
5,433
4,757
4,694
2,444
2,130
2,189
January . . . .
February
March
17,393
16,326
16,752
3,125
2,985
2,811
3,644
3,359
3,499
20,021
19,015
19,525
4,166
2,859
3,261
2,329
3,019
2,676
April
May
June
16,074
15,566
17,008
2,891
2,715
2,977
3,513
3,433
3,265
19,771
21,514
21,024
3,252
5,284
4,203
2,746
3,001
2,851
July
August
September . . .
16,628
16,630
17,387
3,072
2,973
3,322
3,655
3,290
3,718
21,950
22,782
22,175
5,220
4,828
5,538
2,988
2,762
2,547
October
November , . .
December , , .
16,951
16,848
(NA)
2,979
3,109
(NA)
3,689
3,686
(NA)
24,763
23,179
(NA)
5,232
5,036
(NA)
3,154
3,425
(NA)
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of tiese series are shown on pate 56.
92
JANUARY 1984
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS-Continued
Q |
GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Year
and
month
667.
Balance
(Mit.dol.)
668. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
Income on investments
Merchandise, adjusted'
Goods and services
669. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
622. Balance
(Mil. dol.)
618. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
620. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
651. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil. dol.)
652. Foreign
investments in
the United
States
(Mil. dol.)
1982
January
February
March
2,625
...
89,761
87,136
-6,i03
...
55,636
...
61,739
...
20,76i
...
13,824
•••
3,236
90,790
...
87,554
-5,854
...
54,996
•"
60,850
...
22,3i6
...
14,779
...
86,932
...
91,786
...
-13,078
»• •
52,24i
...
65,319
...
21,569
•..
14,748
...
April
May
...
June
July
August
September
-4,854
October
November . .
December
-4,190
80,840
85,030
-11,354
48,344
59,698
19,499
13.491
-2,026
81J42
83,i68
-8,8i6
49,506
58,3io
17,697
12,608
May
-7,832
-14,66"i
48,913
...
63,574
...
81,853
...
89,685
June
•••
19,027
...
13,326
...
p-9,915
p85,230
p95,145
p-18,i69
p50,585
p68,754
p20,622
pl3,694
(NA)
(NA)
1983
January
February
March
April
July
August
September
October
November
December
(NA)
(NA)
...
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1984
January
February
March
April . :
May
June
....
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).
ItCII JANUARY 1984
93
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
0 1
Year
and
month
47. United States,
index of industrial production
(1967 = 100)
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
721. OECDl
European countries, index of
industrial
production
728. Japn,
index of industrial production
725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
726. France,
index of industrial production
722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
727. Italy, index
of industrial
production
723. Canada,
index of industrial production
(1967 = 100)
(1967-= 100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
C)
19»:
160
161
161
157
156
156
rl20
rl2O
rl21
161.9
169.8
165.7
155.5
153.8
152.2
January
f'ebruary
March
140.7
142.9
141.7
156
158
158
232.6
231.2
233.2
April
May
June
140.2
139.2
138.7
156
156
154
230.2
228.1
231.2
160
157
154
157
157
157
rl21
rl22
rl21
164.7
162.7
154.9
149.4
150.2
147.0
July
August
September
138.8
138.4
137.3
152
229.9
230.9
231.7
152
153
152
154
154
154
122
122
123
159.6
146.4
154.1
142.4
148.6
144.6
October
November
December
135.7
134.9
135.2
151
225.5
230.6
228.4
150
150
149
156
157
154
122
120
122
149.7
155.5
151.8
140.5
141.1
140.3
229.4
228.3
233.4
152
152
153
157
156
156
123
124
122
152.0
155.3
* 152.5
147.7
147.6
148.3
151
152
152
151
198:
154
January
February . .
March
137.4
138.1
140.0
April
May . ,
June
142.6
144.4
146.4
154
155
155
232.6
233.1
235.2
153
154
157
156
160
157
rl23
rl24
122
145.2
148.9
144.4
150.0
151.7
155.0
July
August
September ,
149.7
151.8
rl53.8
rl55
rl54
rl55
236.0
^243.3
]
246.9
154
154
pl56
160
160
157
rl23
124
rl24
149.9
146.3
rlSO.l
rl59.1
rl62.3
October
November
December . . . . . .
H55.0
rl56.1
P156.9
pl54
(NA)
#43.5
(NA)
(NA)
pl56
(NA)
pl24
(NA)
P147.5
(NA)
154
154
1984
January . ."
February
March
April
May
June , . .
July .
August
September
October
November
December
See note on rage 80.
Graphs of thtse series are shown on page 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developmenti
a
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ij.i.
94
JANUARY 1984
156.9
rl63.5
P163.8
(NA)
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Q
United States
Year
and
month
320. Index ®
West Germany
Japan
320c. Change
over 6-month
spansl
738. Index ®
CONSUMER PRICES
738c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
735. Index ®
735c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
January
February
March
282.5
283.4
283.1
2.9
4.0
5.5
299.8
300.4
1.9
0.5
0.1
192.3
192.8
193.1
April
May
June
284.3
287.1
290.6
6.1
6.6
6.9
302.9
303.8
303.8
-0.5
2.9
4.0
194.0
195.2
197.1
4.9
5.4
July
August
September
292.2
292.8
293.3
7.2
5.1
2.3
301.5
303.8
309.1
4.4
4.1
3.7
October
November
December
294.1
293.6
292.4
1.4
0.4
0.5
310.0
306.6
306.0
January
February
March
293.1
293.2
293.4
0.8
1.9
2.9
April
May
June
295.5
297.1
298.1
July
August
September
299.3
300.3
301.8
October
... .
November . . . . .
December
302.6
303.1
303.5
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
United Kingdom
France
736. Index ®
(1967 = 100)
736c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
732. Index ®
(1967 = 100)
732c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1982
356.0
359.6
363.8
13.0
12.0
12.0
499.0
499.1
503.5
8.4
7.3
368.2
371.1
373.7
9.9
8.2
7.2
513.6
517.3
518.9
6.0
6.0
6.3
197.6
197.3
197.9
6.8
5.9
4.0
374.7
375.9
377.5
5.8
6.9
7.3
518.9
519.0
518.7
5.3
5.3
4.2
4.0
0.7
0.9
198.5
198.9
199.4
2.7
2.3
0.9
379.5
383.2
386.4
9.5
10.3
10.8
521.3
523.9
522.9
4.0
5.6
4.6
306.6
305.5
307.5
-0.3
1.7
0.5
199.8
200.0
199.8
0.0
390.1
392.9
396.5
12.3
11.2
10.2
523.5
525.8
526.7
2.3
3.4
4.7
5.4
308.6
312.0
309.7
0.7
1.7
0.3
200.3
201.1
201.8
9.8
9.7
4.7
401.8
404.5
406.9
534.1
536.4
537.7
5.1
4.6
4.7
308.3
307.4
311.4
3.2
1.9
(NA)
202.6
203.2
203.6
(NA)
300.7
3.0
3.5
4.9
6.0
4.7
1983
314.2
312.2
(NA)
203.6
204.1
(NA)
0.4
0.8
2.4
3.6
5.2
4.4
410.4
412.8
416.0
419.2
420.9
(NA)
9.6
8.6
8.3
(NA)
540.6
543.0
545.4
1.7
2.8
4.5
4.3
6.1
7.7
7.4
(NA)
547.3
549.2
(NA)
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
JANUARY 1984
95
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
STOCK PRICES
CONSUMER PRICES—Continued
Year
and
month
Italy
Canada
737. Index ® 737c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
733. Index <§) 733c. Chhge
over 6-minth
spans l
(Ann. r<jtet
perceiatjt)
19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks <u)
748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices <§)
745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices (u)
746. France,
index of
stock
prices <g)
742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ®
747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ®
743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ®
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
January
February
March
517.7
524.4
529.1
13.8
13.6
13.1
288.7
292.1
295.8
127.6
124.6
120.6
518.9
516.9
486.2
116.8
118.4
120.1
185.7
193.1
145.9
291.1
300.1
298.8
95-0
98.8
104.2
185.3
176.7
173.1
April
May
June
533.9
539.8
545.2
15.9
19.0
18.7
297,
301.
304,
126.5
126.6
119.7
484.5
503.4
489.6
120.6
117.6
114.2
184.8
183.
166,
303.2
315.4
314.6
96.7
91.0
83.1
171.2
168.4
153.8
July
August
September . . .
553.4
563.
571.
20.6
19.8
19.1
306,
307.
309,
119.0
119
133,
480.8
474.3
481.6
113.5
112,3
115.6
161.
169,
168,
313.2
320.1
343.5
78.4
86a
156.8
177.4
177.3
October
November . . .
December . . .
582,
590.
594.4
16.7
13.7
14.4
311.2
313.3
313.4
144.3
150.2
151.6
490.4
512.7
528.2
118.2
118.8
124.3
170,
174,
169.9
360.7
372.0
365.0
86 ,.4
88 ,.8
91.2
192.6
189,7
199.5
January
February
March
602.7
610.5
616.0
12.9
13.2
13.1
312.5
313.9
317.1
3.8
2.8
156.9
159.7
165.2
533.3
530.8
544.2
126.0
131.9
143.9
181.8
188.5
204.7
371.9
381.6
388.3
95,5
109.1
118.7
210.0
216.6
219.5
April
May
June
622,
628.
632.
14.0
13.6
13.6
317,
317.
321,
1
.5
.3
.9
171.6
178.5
181.0
559.7
573.4
583.3
157.
158.
159.5
215.6
230.0
224.9
410.4
403.7
426.1
115.8
111,6
110.3
240.0
251.8
260.2
July
August
September . . .
638,
641.
649,
13.6
12.5
(NA)
322.9
324,
324.
9.7
181.6
176.7
181.8
598.7
606.4
619.7
169.
166.
164.
235,
251
257.1
418.9
431.8
422.6
112.9
120 ,.5
118.4
264.3
267
272
October
November . . .
December . . .
660.4
667.0
<NA)
182.4
179.7
178.8
621.0
621.5
rp634.9
173.4
rl78.9
181.5
257.3
rp258.3
rp268.6
p412.1
P424.4
rp432.9
111.6
112,7
112.8
251.1
273.6
rp282.0
P181.4
P668.9
P186.8
p288.4
p453.3
P106.9
P286.2
1982
85.8
1983
(JA)
326.5
326.5
(NA)
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . ,
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on pagf 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
r
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th montA.
96
JANUARY 1984
ItCII
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
19.
1949...
1950,..
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963,..
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973.-.
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
15.36
16.88
21.21
24.19
26.18
25.46
35.60
44.15
45.43
41.12
55.62
58.03
59.72
69.07
65.06
76.45
86.12
93.32
84.45
95.04
102.04
90.31
93.49
103.30
118.42
96.11
72.56
96.86
103.81
90.25
99.71
110.87
132.97
117.28
14,77
17.21
22.00
23.75
25.86
26.02
36. 79
44.43
43.47
41.26
54.77
55.78
62.17
70.22
65.92
77.39
86.75
92.69
87.36
90.75
101.46
87.16
97.11
105.24
114.16
93.45
80.10
100.64
100.96
88.98
98.23
115.34
128.40
114.50
14.91
17.35
21.63
23.81
25.99
26.57
36.50
47.49
44.03
42.11
56.15
55.02
64.12
70.29
65.67
78.80
86.83
88.88
89.42
89.09
99.30
88.65
99.60
107.69
112.42
97.44
83.78
101.08
100.57
88.82
100.11
104.69
133.19
110.84
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS
(1941-43=10)
14.89
17.84
21.92
23.74
24.71
27.63
37.76
48.05
45.05
42.34
57.10
55.73
65.83
68.05
68.76
79.94
87.97
91.60
90.96
95.67
101.26
85.95
103.04
108.81
110.27
92.46
84.72
101.93
99.05
92.71
102.07
102.97
134.43
116.31
14,78
18.44
21.93
23.73
24.84
28.73
37.60
46.54
46.78
43.70
57.96
55.22
66.50
62.99
70.14
80.72
89.28
86.78
92.59
97.87
104.62
76,06
101.64
107.65
107.22
89.67
90.10
101.16
98.76
97.41
99.73
107.69
131.73
116.35
13.97
18.74
21.55
24.38
23.95
28.96
39.78
46.27
47.55
44.75
57.46
57. 26
65.62
55.63
70.11
80.24
85.04
86.06
91.43
100.53
99.14
75.59
99.72
108.01
104.75
89.79
92.40
101.77
99. 29
97.66
101.73
114.55
132,28
109.70
14.76
17.38
21.93
25.08
24.29
30.13
42.69
48.78
48.51
45.98
59.74
55.84
65.44
56.97
69.07
83.22
84.91
85.84
93.01
100.30
94.71
75.72
99.00
107.21
105.83
82.82
92.49
104.20
100.18
97.19
102.71
119.83
129.13
109.38
15.29
18.43
22.89
25.18
24.39
30.73
42.43
48.49
45.84
47.70
59.40
56.51
67.79
58.52
70.98
82.00
86.49
80.65
94.49
98.11
94.18
77.92
97.24
111.01
103.80
76.03
85.71
103.29
97.75
103.92
107.36
123.50
129.63
109.65
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
15.89
19.87
23.36
24.26
23.97
32.18
42.11
46.24
41.24
50.95
57.00
53.73
68.00
56.17
73.03
84.85
91.39
77.13
95.66
103.76
95.52
84.37
97.29
109.56
109.84
69.44
88.57
101.89
93.74
100.58
104.47
130.22
119.80
132.66
16.11
19.83
22.71
25.03
24.50
33.44
44.95
45.76
40.35
52.50
57.23
55.47
71.08
60.04
72.62
85.44
92.15
80.99
92.66
105.40
96.21
84.28
92.78
115.05
102.03
71.74
90.07
101.19
94.28
94.71
103.66
135.65
122.92
138.10
16.54
19.75
23.41
26.04
24.83
34.97
45.37
46.44
40.33
5 3.49
59.06
56.80
71.74
62.64
74.17
83.96
91.73
81.33
95.30
106.48
91.11
90.05
99.17
117.50
94.78
67.07
88.70
104.66
93.82
96.11
107.78
133.48
123.79
139.37
15.01
17.15
21.61
23.92
26.01
26.02
36.30
45.36
44.31
41.50
55.51
56.28
62.00
69.86
6S.55
77.55
86.57
91.63
87.08
91.63
100.93
88.71
96.73
105.41
115.00
95.67
78.81
99.53
101.78
89.35
99.35
110.30
131.52
114.21
14.55
18.34
21.80
23.95
24.50
28.44
38.38
46.95
46.46
43.60
57.51
56.07
65.98
62.22
69.67
80.30
87.43
88.15
91.66
98.02
101.67
79.20
101.47
108.16
107.41
90.64
89.07
101.62
99,03
95.93
101.18
108.40
132.81
114.12
17.3
21.6
25.4
26.4
26.1
35.0
45.8
50.3
44.9
55.4
62.0
58.4
74.0
61.1
79.4
92.3
99.4
83.9
104.1
112.9
103.9
91.8
105.8
119.2
118.9
75.5
96.3
110.8
102.0
109.4
113.6
141.7
130.3
144.3
17.5
21.6
24.7
27.2
26.7
36.4
48.9
49.8
43.9
57.1
62.3
60.3
77.3
65.3
79.0
92.9
100.2
88.1
100.8
114.7
104.7
91.7
100.9
125.2
111.0
78.0
98.0
110.1
102.6
103.3
112.8
147.6
133.7
150.2
18.0
21.5
25.5
28.3
27.0
38.0
49.4
50.5
43.9
58.2
64.2
61.8
78.0
68.1
80.7
91.3
99.8
88.5
103.7
115.8
99.1
98.0
107.9
127.8
103.1
73.0
96.5
113.8
102.1
104.5
117.2
145.2
134.7
151.6
16.3
18.7
23.5
26.0
28.3
28.3
39.5
49.3
48.2
45.1
60.4
61.2
67.5
76.0
71.3
84.4
94.2
99.7
94.7
99.7
109.8
96.5
105.2
114.7
125,1
104 1
85.7
108.3
110,7
97.2
108.1
120.0
143.1
124.3
15.8
20.0
23.7
26.0
26.7
31.0
41.8
51.1
50.5
47.4
62.5
61.0
71.8
67.7
75.8
87.4
95.1
95.9
99.7
106.7
110.6
86.1
110.4
117.7
116.8
98 6
96.9
110.5
107.7
104.3
110.1
117.9
144.5
124.3
©
15.49
19.08
23.48
24.78
23.27
31.45
44.34
46.84
43.98
48.96
57.05
54.81
67.26
58.00
72.85
83.41
89.38
77.81
95.81
101.34
94.51
82.58
99.40
109.39
105.61
68.12
84.67
105.45
96.23
103.86
108.60
126.51
118.27
122.43
16.7
18.4
23.1
26.3
28.5
27,7
38.7
48.0
49.4
44.7
60.5
63.1
65.0
75.1
70.8
83.2
93.7
101.5
91.9
103.4
111.0
98.2
101.7
112.4
128.8
16.1
18.7
23.9
25.8
28.1
28.3
40.0
48.3
47.3
44.9
59.6
60. 7
67.6
76.4
71.7
B4. 2
94.4
100.8
95.0
98.7
110.4
94.8
105.6
114.5
124.2
1975...
1976...
1977..•
1978...
1979..,
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
78.9
105,4
112.9
98.2
108,5
120.6
144.6
127.6
87.1
109.5
109.8
96.8
106.9
125.5
139.7
124.6
16.2
18.9
23.5
25.9
28.3
28.9
39.7
51.7
47.9
45.8
61.1
59,9
69.8
76.5
71.4
85.7
94.S
96.7
97.3
96.9
108.0
96.4
108.3
117.1
122.3
106.0
91.1
110.0
109.4
96.6
108.9
113.9
144.9
120.6
16.2
19.4
23.8
25.8
26.9
30.1
41.1
52.3
49.0
46.1
62.1
60.6
71.6
74.0
74.8
87.0
95.7
99.6
98.9
104.1
110.2
93.5
112.1
118.4
120.0
100.6
92.2
110.9
107.7
100.8
111.0
112.0
146.2
126.5
58.
16.1
20.1
23.9
25.8
27.0
31.3
40.9
50.6
50.9
47.5
63.0
60.1
72.3
68.5
76.3
87.8
97.1
94.4
100.7
106.5
113.8
82.7
110.6
117.1
116.6
15.2
20.4
23.4
26.5
26.1
31.5
43.3
50.3
51.7
48.7
62.5
62.3
71.4
60. 5
76.3
87.3
92.5
93.6
99.5
109.4
107.8
82.2
108.5
117.5
113.9
16.1
18.9
23.9
27.3
26.4
32.8
46.4
53.1
52.8
50.0
65.0
60.7
71.2
62.0
75.1
90.5
92.4
93.4
101.2
109.1
103.0
82.4
107.7
116.6
115.1
16.6
20.0
24.9
27.4
26.5
33.4
46.2
52.7
49.9
51.9
64.6
61.5
73.7
63.7
77.2
89.2
94.1
87.7
102.8
106.7
102.4
84.8
105.8
120.8
112.9
16.9
20.8
25.5
27.0
25.3
34.2
48. 2
51.0
47.8
53.3
62.1
59.6
73.2
63.1
79.2
90.7
97.2
84.6
104.2
110.2
102.8
89.8
108.1
119.0
114.9
98.0
110.0
107.4
106.0
108.5
117.1
143.3
126.6
100.5
110.7
108.0
106.2
110.7
124,6
143.9
119.7
100.6
113.3
109.0
105.7
111.7
130.4
140.5
119.0
93.2
112.4
106.3
113.0
116.8
134.3
141.0
119.3
92.1
114.7
104.7
113.0
118.1
137.6
128.7
133.2
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT
(FIRST QUARTER 1 9 6 6 = 1 0 0 )
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
19. \JNITED STATES, IN DEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS 1 (VI)
(1967=100)
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964,.,
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972..,
1973..,,
III Q
15.18
18.30
22.77
25.01
23.98
30.77
43.15
48.04
46.11
47.55
58.73
55.72
66.83
57.83
70.97
82.88
86.93
81.43
94.44
99.92
94.47
78.74
98.55
109.20
105.08
75.66
87.62
104.31
98.05
101.66
106.22
123.28
125.68
113.82
16.18
19,82
23.16
25.11
24.43
33.53
44.14
46.15
40.64
52.31
57.76
55.33
70.27
59.62
73.27
84.75
91.76
79.82
94.54
105.21
94.28
86.23
96.41
114.04
102.22
69.42
89.11
102.58
93.95
97.13
105.30
133.12
122.17
136.71
15.23
18.40
22.34
24. 50
24.73
29.69
40.49
46.62
44.38
46.24
57.38
55.85
66.27
62.38
69.86
81.37
88.17
85.26
91.93
98.70
97.84
83.22
98.29
109.20
107.43
82.84
36.16
102.01
98.20
96.02
103.01
118.78
128.04
119.71
AVERAGE FOR 'ERIOD
I
®
16.5
19.9
24.8
27.2
26.1
33.5
46.9
52.3
50.2
51.7
63,9
60,6
72.7
62.9
77.2
90.1
94.6
88.6
102.7
108.7
102.7
85.7
107.2
118.a
114.3
82 3
95.3
113.5
106.7
110.6
115.5
134.1
136.7
123.8
17.6
21.6
25.2
27.3
26.6
36.5
48.0
50.2
44.2
56.9
62.8
60.2
76.4
64.8
79.7
92.2
99.8
86.8
102.9
114.5
102.6
93.8
104.9
124.1
111.0
75 5
96.9
111.6
102.2
105.7
114.5
144.8
132.9
148.7
16.6
20.0
24.3
26.6
26.9
32.3
44.0
50.7
48.3
50.3
62.4
60.8
72.1
67.9
76.0
88.5
95.9
92.7
100.0
107.4
106.4
90.5
106.9
118.8
116.8
90.1
93.7
111.0
106.8
104.5
112.1
129.2
139.3
130.3
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1949...
99.1
98.2
1955...
1956...
86.2
80.8
87.0
99.7
100.2
99.9
...
90.8
93.8
90.1
94.4
95.0
196*; * '
1966...
1968...
1969.,.
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1975...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982.,.
1983.,.
83.7
72.1
67.0
71.4
71.0
100.0
92.2
95.0
95.7
94.9
92.4
91.6
75.4
81.6
58.0
72.9
84.3
73.9
66.9
66.9
66.5
78.8
6B.4
56.5
66.5
62.0
81.6
66.0
52.7
72.4
65.5
82.9
68.1
51.7
76.3
67. 5
91.2
80.0
65.8
58.7
73.1
65.7
82.4
60.4
62.3
74.1
65.4
92.9
86.4
77.1
82.4
94.0
71.8
64.5
75.8
88.8
87.6
78.4
64.5
67.3
77.2
65.4
BO.4
66.7
73.7
73.1
69.3
79.3
62.1
75.0
70.3
73.4
102.9
88.3
92.9
92.1
79.7
75.4
82.2
90.8
75.7
58.4
75.4
86.0
83.1
75.0
63.3
76.7
62.5
72.1
66. 1
61.0
64.5
64.3
71.9
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
'The Bureau of Economic Analysis has converted this series to a 1967 base to facilitate comparisons with foreign stock pr
82.3
71.5
63.5
68.3
66.5
81.5
66.6
54.4
73.9
66.2
80.4
63.9
67.8
74.8
66.7
73.5
62.1
72.1
65.7
72. S
94.8
94.8
99.2
102.4
93.8
94.1
93.1
88.2
76.5
Bl.l
90.4
76.1
64.0
70.5
85.4
86.8
79.4
66.0
64.4
70. 7
68.0
(JANUARY 1984)
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
517.
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956.. .
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
19B0...
1981...
1982...
1983...
977
7.D4R
5, SOI
4,303
2,395
2,295
3,585
3, S22
3,(334
3,792
3,447
3,)»57
4,473
4,-'31
4.:'.42
4,421
5 489
6,(186
7,:i78
6,<>06
6,796
7,dO4
6,(127
7,!>27
7,785
8, '93
9,1:04
10,337
10,770
12,578
14,608
19,361
1,043
4,987
4,484
3,997
3,074
2,342
3,125
3,877
3,664
3,887
3,554
4,332
4,349
4,485
5,783
4,276
5 328
6^659
7,212
7,097
6,489
7,261
6,951
7,283
7,398
7,961
8,442
9,763
10,659
10,226
12,399
15,741
20,608
960
5,158
4,544
3,889
1, 966
2, 506
4,131
3,192
4,252
3,929
3,592
3,752
4,616
4, 374
4,245
4,599
6 17fi
6',495
6,641
6,860
6,766
6,753
6,896
7,362
7,485
8,271
8,727
9,873
10,155
10,935
13,806
15,560
18,869
577.
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1,668
1,511
2,620
3,562
3,513
3,331
3,233
2,879
2,737
2,613
2,5iSl
2,4)1
2,503
2 , 8 19
2,677
2,6U7
2,6i,3
2,902
3,3!»7
3,4:!7
3,4:.8
3,2!i5
2,8<:1
2,4(.2
2,3:i4
2,1<I9
2,US
2,0<.i2
2,0^7
2,0*5
2,040
2,o;9
2,OS6
2,1C4
1,662
1,4R8
2,794
3,643
3,510
3,359
3,160
2,664
2,788
2,618
2,550
2,487
2,498
2,849
2,684
2,696
2,652
2,937
3,368
3,440
3,432
3,220
2,840
2,426
2,314
2,19S
2,146
2,093
2,078
2,062
2,030
2,032
2,061
2,109
Apr.
May
June
July
1,438
3,698
3,980
4,059
2,539
2,704
3,424
3,521
3,985
3,735
3,483
3,840
4,764
4,139
4,563
4,575
6 392
6J746
7,013
6,556
6,683
6,752
7,267
6,865
7,762
7,971
9,033
9,671
10,242
9,784
13,722
15,210
20,793
1,621
5,011
5,501
2,272
3,024
2,271
3,528
3,094
4,480
3,842
3,901
3,803
4,199
4,390
4,813
4,720
1,609
5,458
5,362
1,841
3,070
2,533
4,225
2,862
4,271
3,870
3,882
3,853
4,099
4,856
4,349
4,446
619
2,479
4,933
6,1<U
2,040
2,563
2,33,4
3,592
3,177
3,931
3,552
4,973
3,924
4,925
4,639
5,010
4,888
7,439
7,067
6,632
6,556
6,990
6,825
7,275
7,167
8,438
8,764
9,919
10,793
10,663
13,718
15,699
17,786
6,838
7,481
6,324
6,491
6,369
6,866
6,992
8,166
8,516
8,713
9,835
10,094
10,615
12,flO9
15,156
17,503
6,427
7,317
6,887
6,793
7,462
7,173
7,312
7,983
8,301
9,727
9,493
10,327
11,792
12,67 7
16,836
17,669
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT PERSONNEL, MILITARY
(THOUSANDS)
1,647
1,474
2,962
3,675
3,518
3,342
3,105
2,650
2,792
2,623
2,538
2,478
2,490
2,840
2,691
2,693
2,647
2,969
3,371
3,467
3,452
3,173
2,802
2,385
2,291
2,187
2,137
2,090
2,075
2,058
2,026
2,033
2,062
2,107
1,630
1,466
3,075
3,665
3,524
3,326
3,036
2,R36
2,792
2,608
2,518
2,472
2,483
2,829
2,693
2,694
2,645
3,004
3,371
3,494
3,465
3,116
2,770
2,341
2,274
2,174
2,127
2,087
2,071
2,0S4
2,022
2,028
2,060
2,106
1,619
1,459
3,170
3,660
3.543
3,312
2,969
2,813
2,790
2,600
2,506
2,465
2,473
2,806
2,692
2,690
2,641
3,056
3,368
3,518
3,459
3,084
2,737
2,319
2,256
2,156
2,124
2,081
2,070
2,046
2,018
2,031
2,064
2,104
1,615
1,460
3,249
3,636
3,555
3,302
2,935
2,806
2,796
2,601
2,504
2,476
2,484
2,608
2,700
2,687
2,655
3,094
3,377
3,547
3,460
3,066
2,715
2,323
2,253
2,162
2,128
2,062
2,075
2,057
2,024
2,034
2,070
2,108
1,617
1,496
3,313
3,637
3,55(1
3,30:»
2,940
2,810
2,80f!
2,604
2,50fi
2,480
2,497
2,807
2,703
2,696
2,669
3,136
3, 382
3,545
3,458
3,045
2,685
2,332
2,251
2,162
2,129
2,087
2,079
2,062
2,027
2,044
2,082
2,110
S 7 8 . DEFENSE DEPARTMENT PERSONNEL, CIVILIAN, DIRE
(THOUSANDS)
1949...
1950. . .
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956.•.
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963.*.
1964...
1965...
L966...
L967.. .
L968...
L969...
L970...
L971...
L972...
L973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
NOTE:
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
989
3,935
5,114
3,190
2,459
3,890
2,703
3,479
3,216
4,910
4,118
3,620
4,303
4,787
5,442
3,984
5,345
6,037
7',258
7,256
6,830
6,368
7,333
7,015
7,671
7,681
7,889
9,914
10,240
10,214
12,081
13,014
12,892
16,476
1,268
2,410
11,241
3,091
2,S45
2,944
2,857
3,566
3,718
3,800
3,709
4,042
4,096
4,866
4,164
4,487
5,225
6 136
6',667
7,183
7,150
7,033
6,683
7,109
7,315
6,211
7, 936
8,733
10,353
10,484
11,505
12,876
15,674
18,599
1,435
3,593
4,136
6,208
1,850
2,788
4,320
3,986
3,790
3,896
3,208
3,689
4,780
4,249
4,277
5,086
5,599
6, 328
e',815
7,011
6,838
6,942
7,432
6,708
6,850
8,116
8,084
9,874
1O,1S7
10,282
11,997
15,825
19,805
24,396
2,980
17,193
14,629
11,889
7,135
7,143
10,841
10,591
11,750
11,608
10,593
11,941
13,438
13,590
14,270
13,296
16,995
19', 743
20,541
21,335
20,161
20,810
21,453
21,472
22,410
24,017
25,562
29,440
31,351
31,931
38,783
46,109
58,838
4,668
14,167
14,643
8,172
8,633
7,508
11,177
9,477
12,736
11,447
11,266
11,496
13,062
13,385
13,725
13,741
18,655
21,023
21,561
19,512
19,730
20,131
20,958
21,132
23,115
24,925
26,510
29,425
31,129
31,082
40,249
46,065
56,062
1,584
2,117
3,418
3,559
3,482
3,257
2,923
2,801
2,699
2,597
2,495
2,501
2,725
2,702
2,693
2,680
2,761
3,287
3,416
3,454
3,387
2,946
2,608
2,371
2,227
2,156
2,097
2,086
2,072
2,058
2,030
2,053
2,090
2,108
1,579
2,261
3,462
3,534
3,458
3,233
2,916
2,798
2,659
2,590
2,501
2,500
2,781
2,6fi7
2,694
2,678
2,803
3,326
3,412
3,433
3,351
2,917
2,579
2,370
2,218
2,154
2,099
2,082
2,069
2,050
2,029
2,056
2,097
2,114
1,551
2,357
3,465
3,507
3,403
3,181
2,8R7
2,781
2,617
2,566
2,487
2,494
2.811
2,668
2,676
2,663
2,857
3,334
3,398
3,408
3,298
2,874
2,519
2,348
2,202
2,140
2,084
2,072
2,060
2,041
2,020
2,051
2,093
2,113
1,647
1,474
2,962
3,675
3,518
3,342
3,105
2,850
2,792
2,623
2,538
2,478
2,490
2,840
2,691
2,693
2,647
2,969
3,371
3,467
3,452
3,173
2,802
2,385
2,291
2,187
2,137
2,090
2,075
2,058
2,026
2,033
2,062
2,107
1,615
1,460
3,249
3,636
3,555
3,302
2,935
2,806
2,796
2,601
2,504
2,476
2,484
2,806
2,700
2,687
2,655
3,094
3,377
3,547
3,460
3,066
2,715
2,323
2,253
2,162
2,128
2,082
2,075
2,057
2,024
2,034
2,070
2,108
Oct.
IQ
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT GROSS OBLIGATIONS INCURRED
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
995
2,905
3,573
5,782
2,409
2, 597
1,133
4,882
3,259
3,634
3,658
3,897
5,335
4, 312
4,556
4,274
5,017
; 6Q7
6,625
7,638
6,6B0
6,357
6,763
7,613
6,932
8, 279
8,962
7,384
0,486
0,278
1,022
3,723
7,374
6,4413
IV Q
Annual
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1, 286
2,834
3,851
4,520
2,289
3,493
3,552
3,502
3,267
3,719
3,968
3,869
4,785
4,135
4,265
4,308
5,110
5 958
1, 267
6,244
6,490
6,563
6,249
6,824
6,790
8,179
8,072
10,015
9,143
10,256
12,278
13,552
16,584
18,387
ACTIVE DUTY
III Q
II Q
2,900
8,218
12,357
16,493
6.73B
8,653
7,019
11,976
9,703
11,284
11,178
12,739
14,044
13,372
13,460
13,592
15,015
18,606
20,319
23,199
20,057
19,733
20,474
21,610
21,034
24,441
25,335
27,126
29,127
30,861
35,092
39,957
50,794
52,504
3,692
9,938
20,491
12,489
6,654
9,622
9,880
11,031
10,724
12,608
11,035
11,351
13,179
13,902
13,883
13.559
16,169
18,501
20,740
21,450
20,818
20,343
21,448
20,832
21.836
24,008
23,909
28,521
30.750
30,980
35,583
41,715
46,371
59,471
25,604
64,208
58,454
33,653
34,043
31,550
45,025
40,495
46,378
45,26fl
45,949
50,660
53.774
54.31ft
55,146
58,221
72,759
81,625
86,751
81,722
79,967
82,863
84,853
85,474
93,974
96,166
107,719
118,742
124,321
133,688
160,704
191.339
226,895
(
ND OF PERIOD
1,608
1,628
3 , 346
3,619
3,548
3,289
2,945
2,798
2,789
2,605
2,500
2,485
2,514
2,684
2,702
2,693
2,686
3,184
3,393
3,526
3,459
3,020
2,657
2,344
2,237
2,153
2,111
2,085
2,073
2,062
2,024
2,049
2,084
2,109
1,593
1,889
3,376
3,583
3,509
3,280
2,931
2,795
2,758
2,598
2,492
2,492
2,553
2,688
2,695
2,690
2,724
3, 229
3,412
3,490
3,449
2,984
2,627
2,356
2,232
2,157
2,105
2,084
2,075
2,062
2,027
2,051
2,063
2,109
' HIRE EMPLOYMENT
1,593
1,889
3,376
3,583
3,509
3,280
2,931
2,795
2.75B
2,S9B
2,492
2,492
2,553
2,688
2,695
2,690
2,724
3,229
3,412
3,490
3,449
2,984
2,627
2,356
2,232
2,157
2,105
2,084
2,075
2,062
2,027
2,051
2,083
2,109
1,551
2,357
3,465
3,507
3,403
3,181
2,867
2,781
2,617
2.566
2,487
2,494
2,611
2.668
2.676
2,663
2,857
3,334
3,398
3,408
3,29a
2,874
2,519
2,348
2.202
2,140
2,084
2,072
2,060
2,041
2,020
2,051
2,093
2,113
1,551
2,357
3,465
3,507
3,403
3,181
2,867
2,761
2,617
2,566
2,487
2,494
2,611
2.666
2.676
2.663
2,857
3,334
3.396
3,408
3,298
2,874
2,519
2,346
2,202
2,140
2,084
2,072
2,060
2,041
2,020
2,051
2,093
2,113
<g)
END OF PERIOD
750
1,047
1,290
1,426
1,241
1,183
744
1,100
1,296
1,410
1,232
1,182
743
1,150
1,300
1,390
1,224
1,181
745
L,182
L,3O7
L.365
L,219
L,182
754
1,206
1,315
1,342
1,212
1,185
753
1,235
1,337
1,332
1,209
1,187
779
1,249
1,339
1,320
1,202
1,186
859
1,258
1,334
1,308
1,193
1,187
904
1,261
1,328
1 , 288
1,180
1,180
941
1,270
1,329
1,278
1,177
1,181
967
L,274
L,330
L,253
t,181
L,179
9B8
1,278
1,330
1,248
1,180
1,167
743
1,150
1,300
1,390
1,224
1,181
753
,235
,337
L, 332
,209
,187
904
1,261
1,328
1.288
1,180
,180
988
1,276
1,330
1.246
1,180
1,167
968
1,278
1,330
1,248
1,1BO
1,167
1,174
1,083
1,08*
1,043
1,03 3
1,060
1,064
1,04 2
1,01?
1,06)
1, 24<i
1,26?
1,31!>
1,172
1,064
1,078
1,047
1,034
1,061
1,061
1,040
1,016
1,072
1,260
1,265
1,316
1,240
1,143
1,117
1,057
1,039
1,036
1,019
995
982
971
965
972
1,013
1,16B
1,084
1,076
1,046
1,035
1, 061
1,056
1,039
1,018
1,088
1,268
1,266
1,317
1,224
1,142
1,112
1,051
1,042
1,034
1,016
995
982
968
966
974
1,018
L,165
L,088
L,075
1,043
L,038
L,063
1,056
L,O39
L,022
L,101
1,273
L,267
L,316
L,21ft
1,141
L.107
L,051
L.046
L,034
L,011
995
982
968
969
980
1,022
1,160
1,089
1,074
1,044
1,041
1,066
1,054
1,036
1,027
1,111
1,274
1,271
1,312
1,213
1,136
1,090
1,051
1,053
1,035
1,010
997
988
972
975
990
1,028
1,161
1,097
1,078
1,047
1,042
1,070
1,050
1,030
1,034
1,138
1,303
1,317
1,342
1,194
1,127
1,083
1,031
1,070
1,042
1,010
1,009
1,000
979
988
1,008
1,045
1,160
1,098
1,078
1,043
1,043
1,072
1,052
1,031
1,046
1,166
1,311
1,334
1, 348
1,184
1,129
1,068
1,019
1,074
1,052
1,014
1,008
1,002
982
990
1,023
1,051
1,154
1,097
1,071
1,045
1,052
1,076
1,053
1,034
1,055
1,187
1,306
1,316
L.327
1,177
L,132
L,073
L,022
L.064
L,038
L,006
998
994
974
973
.,017
.,043
1,130
1,093
1,064
1,037
1,052
1,067
1,046
1,026
1,045
1,184
1,274
1,276
1,296
1.169
1,130
1,071
1,019
1,049
1,030
997
962
980
960
971
984
990
1,105
1,094
1,060
1,035
1,058
1,069
1,045
1,024
1,052
1,200
1,277
1,275
1,285
1,162
1,128
1,081
1,022
1,046
1,031
995
983
981
964
971
998
1,016
1,093
L,092
L,056
L,O33
L,060
L,070
L,044
L,O23
1,060
1,222
1,277
1,275
1,272
L,158
L,125
L,083
L,026
L.046
L,029
996
985
981
967
972
1,006
1,024
1,085
1,088
1,052
1,032
1,059
1,066
1,043
1,019
1,057
1,230
1,271
1,273
1,262
1,152
1,122
1,082
1,026
1,043
1,028
995
983
978
967
973
1,009
1,027
1,168
1,084
1,076
1,046
1,035
1,061
1,056
1,039
1,018
1,088
1,268
1,266
1,317
1,224
1,142
1,112
1,051
1,042
1,034
1,016
995
982
968
966
974
1,018
!l61
L,097
L,078
,047
,042
,070
,,050
L,030
,034
,138
,303
,317
,342
L,194
1,127
,083
,031
,070
L,042
,010
,009
,000
979
988
1,008
1,045
L',130
l',085
1.088
1,052
1,032
1,059
1,066
1,043
1,019
1,057
1.230
1,271
1,273
1,262
1,152
1,122
1,082
1,026
1,043
1,028
995
983
978
967
973
1,009
1,027
l',085
1,086
1,052
1,032
1,059
1,066
1,043
1,019
1,057
1,230
1,271
1,273
1,262
1,152
1,122
1,082
1,026
1,043
1,026
995
983
978
967
973
1,009
1,027
I,25:J
l,14<i
1,11'»
1,07.1
1,034
l,03fS
1,02:1
994
981!
97:»
96'.
97'i
l,OO£t
These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
98
,093
,064
,037
,052
,067
L,046
L,026
L,04S
.184
L,274
,276
,296
L.169
,130
L,071
1,019
1,049
1,030
997
982
980
960
971
984
990
(JANUARY 1984)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
742. UNITED ]aNGDOM—INDEX OF STOCK PRICES
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
30.7
32.7
38.0
32.1
37.0
50.7
55.1
49.4
49.4
55.5
70.5
86.5
82.0
80.0
95.8
102.4
90.4
86.2
105.3
157.6
129.6
120.5
163.6
183.2
154.5
74.3
127.9
131.9
208.7
223.3
236.3
262.6
278.9
343.5
29.0
32.7
39.1
32.1
38.0
53,4
54.0
49.4
46.5
57.4
80.8
87.5
79.8
80.4
97.9
100,0
95.8
85.0
110.7
152.6
127.3
128.3
159.7
179.9
159,1
70.9
132.4
116.6
210.4
217.4
238.9
267.4
259.5
360.7
29.2
33.1
35.3
32.5
37.7
52.8
53.0
45.1
47.1
57.8
82.8
03.3
80.9
83.6
99.2
95.5
98.3
83.0
115.1
154.5
128.6
120.3
156.0
185.6
151.2
65.3
141.5
121.5
197.7
208.1
215.6
277.5
278.0
372.0
30.0
32.5
34.6
32.5
38.4
53.4
54.7
43.3
46.4
61.7
88.5
84.3
82.2
84.8
101.1
91.9
96.4
85.3
113.2
157.8
132.4
121.0
165.5
190.8
126.4
58.2
140.1
132.7
193.8
213.3
217.1
267.6
284.2
365.0
34.2
29.9
33.9
31.6
34.8
40.4
52.8
49.3
51.5
44.7
61.7
87.0
91.9
82.2
86.3
97.9
93.7
99.1
89.1
117.7
158.9
135.2
121.7
180.3
171.6
121.7
92.2
151.9
156.9
191.1
221.4
231.3
267.1
296.7
34.0
44.0
56.7
50.1
55.2
48.9
66.7
83.2
94.6
83.1
90.1
99.1
92.3
100.6
96.1
138.3
142.3
119.0
141.4
189.3
168.7
109.1
122.4
151.9
174.6
198.7
250.6
233.0
292.6
311.1
20.8
28,3
37.7
35.5
30.9
38.9
54.0
59.3
51.0
55.9
58.8
52.4
70.3
63.0
76.2
97.5
97.8
85.1
104.7
109.4
110.2
101.8
106.1
139.6
154.8
95,2
111.2
111.7
100.6
129.5
191.7
233.5
192.3
177.3
21.9
29.1
38.5
33.5
30.7
38.9
50.4
57.1
46.4
57.8
58.6
52.4
70.8
64.9
76.3
93.0
100.1
88.1
98.7
110.8
110.3
99.8
100.1
134.1
162.7
105.1
103.8
106.5
96.4
122.3
175.2
223.3
190,4
192.6
22.9
29.1
36.3
34.4
31.2
41.2
51.8
55.1
46.5
58.6
58.9
55.5
72.7
70.2
76.3
97.8
97.0
87.4
101.0
115.1
113.4
104.1
102.3
142.2
144.2
94.2
110.7
97.5
100.9
129.1
189.3
235.2
208.9
189.7
22.9
29.3
36.5
34.4
30.9
42.6
52.4
56.2
46.1
58.1
61.3
58.1
75.2
70.1
79.3
97.4
98.6
90.1
101.5
116.7
113.2
107.3
112.9
150.0
144.0
95.0
106.4
108.7
106.9
131.7
.199.5
219.9
201.2
199.5
21.1
23.0
33.0
37.5
34.9
32.8
43.9
55.2
56.2
46.9
62.6
56.3
63.2
73.4
72.3
83.3
102.0
101.2
97.4
94.4
116.8
115.2
109.7
123.3
147.6
146.2
111.2
120.7
108.9
101.0
143.4
228.1
225.4
178.4
19.7
25.1
34.0
35.7
32.1
36.2
47.1
57.9
60.4
49.0
61.4
55.1
67.5
71.2
76.1
91.3
101.1
98.9
98.7
98.8
118.4
97.4
109.4
127.8
137.9
123,8
118.4
121.3
106.0
108.5
157.7
218.9
240.3
164.5
(1967=100)
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958.:.
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964.,.
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
35.7
29.5
33.5
32.5
33.9
39.7
56.5
51.1
51.1
45.3
60.6
88.0
37,7
82.3
85.2
98.3
93.4
97.7
88.8
114.6
164. S
139.3
123.5
175.2
182.2
126.1
68.8
150.7
; 149.6
198.2
211.1
224.3
259.0
,291.1
32.1
34.8
29.8
30.5
33.9
34.3
30.5
31.8
35.6
34.9
40.9
40.5
51.5
50.5
48.7
48.0
51.8
51.6
45.3
42.9
62.5
62.1
36.8
86.1
95.9
92.0
81.0
83.2
33.6
86.6
98.8
96.2
92.1
95.6
98.7
100.8
90.0
83.6
120.5
117.9
159.5. 1S2.6
131.4
135.0
120.1
121.6
185.8
180.0
164.3
168.3
115,6
123.5
108.7
99.0
152.5
152.6
164.2
157.0
187.5
187.7
240.8
212.2
239.4 . 231.6
273.2
269.0
293.8
300.1
32.7
29.8
37.0
32.5
34.9
31.5
30.5
38.0
29.3
33.5
43.0
52.6
52.3
54.8
47.9
65.3
82.0
97.9
86.9
39.8
100.5
92.5
98.2
94.7
133.3
150.7
128.8
130.6
190.9
168.0
111.7
114.7
154.0
164.9
191.9
255.7
228.1
293.2
303.2
43.9
56.5
49.7
55.1
48.3
67. 3
34.9
96.8
84.9
90.6
99.0
94.2
101.3
96.6
139.3
143.2
115.6
146.6
194.5
166.8
112.4
125.7
155.9
180.3
202.9
255.0
230.3
295.6
315.4
29.2
31.9
38.4
29.0
33.5
45.1
61.1
48.3
55.8
50.6
67.5
82.7
89.0
77.5
90.0
97,7
90.3
102.4
97.1
142.4
133.1
112.7
147.0
184.1
171.3
103.1
126.7
145.8
178.6
201.2
241.0
240.7
289.0
314.6
29.5
31.3
37.4
32.8
36.0
50.0
56.2
50.5
54.5
53.7
71.9
87.3
R3.2
80.1
93.9
102.1
88.1
87.4
100.3
154.0
128.0
118.1
158.5
195.5
156.4
81.6
115.3
140.1
191.6
220.3
233.9
256.7
298.6
320.1
20.3
22.9
34.2
37.7
34.6
33.1
44.5
53.8
55.1
46.6
63.0
55.4
63.4
73.5
70.6
81.3
101.8
100.7
96.7
93.9
113.7
116.1
107.5
125.5
145.4
148.4
112.6
122.7
108.5
98.7
141.1
256,3
218.6
176.7
20.3
22.9
33.5
37.0
34.6
33.5
44.2
57.7
56.1
47.3
62.3
55.5
64.9
74.3
72.9
86.0
101.8
99.7
99.1
91.1
116.9
117.5
112.5
123.2
147.5
144.4
110.3
121.7
111.0
105.3
150.7
203.2
233.9
173.1
20.3
24.5
34.4
36.5
32.7
35.5
45.2
58.9
58.8
46.9
61.6
54.0
66.5
73.1
76.0
89.3
103.1
101,9
101.2
99.2
120.1
106.8
110.1
124.2
140.3
133.3
115,7
122.2
108.2
106.9
149.5
212.8
232.3
171.2
745.
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965.,
1966..
1967..
1963..
1969..
1970,.
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1982..
1983..
9.9
18.9
14.0
16,2
27.5
31.6
29.4
33.2
55.5
94.6
139.6
121.0
93.7
114.2
112.3
110.3
88.2
123.6
134.7
144.6
115.7
117.7
138.8
110,3
105.0
131.9
119.5
126.5
135.0
117.2
115.3
116.8
10.6
18.7
13.7
16.9
27.3
30.7
28.3
33.2
55.5
94.6
139.6
120.0
89.8
116.2
110.3
112.3
93.6
125,3
136.0
140.5
123.4
125,9
136.3
110.5
112.4
135.0
118.3
127.9
131.9
123..3
114.0
118.4
10.9
17.2
13.3
17.2
28.7
30.7
29.4
34.2
57.6
95.7
137.6
119.1
92.6
118.2
107.4
110. 5
94.6
124. 2
136.1
137.7
124.6
130.5
142.2
108.1
120.3
136.5
118.1
126.1
131.2
118.1
116.3
120.1
20.1
25.2
34.2
35.1
32.2
36.7
46.2
57.5
61.2
49.0
61.2
56.3
67.6
72.9
77.5
92.2
103.2
97.6
97.0
96.6
124.3
94.1
107.8
130.4
134.1
120.2
117.3
121.5
102.4
109.4
154.8
216.4
245.7
168.4
18.7
25.6
33.3
35.5
31.5
36.5
49.3
57.3
61.1
51.2
61.4
55.1
68.3
67.6
74.8
92.4
96.9
97.1
98.0
100.5
110.8
91.3
110.3
128.8
139.4
113.0
121.7
120.1
107.3
109.1
168.9
227.5
242.9
153,8
11.1
IS.7
13.2
17.3
31.9
30.2
28.3
36.1
69.3
117.1
152.2
98.5
107.4
113.2
105.4
101.0
92.3
131.3
143.7
125.2
120.8
138-4
129.7
112.2
119.3
126.7
128.4
124.0
127.8
118.8
122,1
117.6
11.6
14,9
13.2
18.3
32.1
29.4
28.3
38.1
75.2
141.5
144.5
91.8
104.5
111.3
104.5
96.4
90.6
134.2
144.7
119.6
119.1
135.6
128.1
108.1
114.5
127.2
125.2
127.1
121.7
120.6
126.1
114.2
20.6
27,0
35.5
36.5
32.9
38.1
51,3
62.3
54.8
54.9
62.2
56.6
71.0
65,9
73,6
93.5
96.6
87.6
102.1
105.1
110.0
98.6
111,5
139.9
149.8
108.5
113.4
115.3
101.6
120.8
178,6
232.3
231.6
177.4
31.1
30.7
37.8
30.3
29. £
31.£>
37.1
31.9
35. £1
49.:
57.0
50.0
53.:)
53.:
69.5
85.5
83.9
79.]
93.6
101.£1
88.5
90.6
101."
153.<i
128.'
117.9
159.6
188.6
157.. >
83.2
120.6
139.! >
192.<
216.(
234.:
258.4
287. Ai
32S.( >
29.4
32.8
36.3
32.4
33.0
53.2
53.9
47.6
46.7
59.0
84.0
85.0
81.0
82.9
99.4
95.8
96.8
84.4
113.0
155,0
129.4
123.2
160.4
185.4
145.6
64.8
133.0
123.6
202.3
212.9
223.9
270.8
273.9
365.9
31.1
31.2
36.3
31.5
3S.6
46.7
55.1
49.2
51.7
51.5
70.5
85.2
87.8
81.8
92.S
98.6
92.8
93.7
100.0
141.2
139.8
123.3
145.8
136.0
160.8
94.7
118.3
141.7
191.7
204.7
232.5
248.5
280.2
324.8
12.1
14.6
13.3
19.8
33.0
29.0
30.2
39.1
82.9
144.5
133.7
87.8
105.4
113.2
103.4
90.8
92.1
136.7
138.6
L17.5
L19.7
L34.3
L19.8
LO3.2
L17.4
L24.8
L24.3
L29.1
L22.0
L21.2
L27.5
113.5
12.9
14.6
14.0
20.3
33.9
28.3
30.2
43.0
94.6
174.7
121.0
91.8
110.3
116.2
105.4
91.8
104.2
137.5
144.0
122.2
119.8
138.8
119.1
104.3
119.6
122.0
126.0
132.3
124.3
121.7
122.5
112.3
20.4
26.:
35. i
36.]
32.2
37.9
52.2
60.7
55. *L
54.6
62.]
54.0
70.]
64.!
74.:
95.]
96.3
89.^t
103,4I
105.]
108.1
99.1
109,3
136,=>
150.9
108.0
116.6
114.5
102.9
122..>
176.6
235. »
218.' 7
170.! >
22.6
29.2
37.1
34.1
30.9
40.9
51.5
56.1
46.3
58.2
59. 6
SS.3
72.9
68.4
77.3
97.7
98.6
88.5
100.4
114.2
112.3
103.7
105.1
142.1
150.3
98.1
107,0
104.2
101.4
127.7
188.0
226.1
200.2
193.9
20.9
25.9
34.9
35.9
32.5
37.0
48.7
57.5
S4.6
52.2
61.4
55.2
63.4
69.4
75.0
91.8
99.5
94.5
100.0
103.1
113.9
103.9
108.4
132.5
146.7
119.0
113.3
115.2
104.8
114.9
166.4
227.1
221.2
176.8
<£
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
14.0
15.3
14-9
21.6
34-1
28.7
30.2
46.8
85-9
155.3
121.0
35.9
110,3
115.1
105.4
95.6
108.4
133.7
145.4
117.2
113.0
134.3
115.8
99.4
115.7
122.3
124.9
136.4
125.7
120.0
122.5
115.6
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
Annual
AVERAGE FOFI PERIOD
19.8
24.3
33.7
36.3
32.7
36.7
51.3
60.4
60.3
52.9
65.2
52.9
69.1
64.7
73.1
94.2
94.5
95.5
103.5
100.9
104.4
96.9
110.1
131.2
148.1
120.4
120.3
116.4
106.6
116.7
159.4
240.0
232.3
156.8
WEST 3ERMANY--INDEX OF STOCK PRICES
(1967=100)
10.8
16.9
13.3
17.0
31.6
31.2
29.4
36.1
59.6
100.5
140.5
115.1
95.7
116.2
107.4
107.9
93.7
129.9
136.9
137.3
121.3
134.8
142.1
111.7
124.5
132.6
124.0
124.9
130.6
116.5
122.7
120.6
IV Q
®
(1967=100)
22.2
23.1
31.3
37.9
35.5
31.8
42.9
54.0
57.5
46.2
62.5
58.1
61.2
72.4
73.3
82.6
102.3
103.1
96.5
98.2
119.8
112.1
109.0
121.3
150.0
145.9
110.7
117.8
107.3
99.1
138.4
224.7
223.7
185.3
III Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
29.2
30.7
36.0
30.7
34.3
47.2
59.6
50.2
56.1
50.7
66.2
82.8
36.5
77.1
91.2
100.9
86.9
98.1
99.5
150.0
128.5
115.0
156.6
187.1
161.1
93.6
118.6
146.4
178.4
204.4
232.8
255.9
284.8
313.2
•7 4 3 . CANADA—INDEX OF STOCK PRICE!3
1949...
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1.957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1963..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1982..
1983..
II Q
©
15.3
14.4
15.6
23.3
31.5
29.2
30.2
50.7
84.0
148.4
127.9
84.9
108,4
109.3
102.6
93.0
109.8
136.S
151.5
114.8
103.7
130.6
117.6
95.7
118,8
115.9
126.4
138.7
123.5
120.6
118.8
118.2
16.7
14.0
15.8
24.2
30.3
28.6
31.3
50.7
36.9
143.5
131.8
100.5
104.5
109.3
99.5
89.8
115.7
133.7
156.7
109.5
105.2
132.3
112.0
96.9
126.1
115.8
128.5
134.8
118.3
117.2
118,0
118.8
17.0
13.8
15.7
25.7
31.5
29.0
31.3
52.7
92.6
142.5
125.9
96.6
108.4
112.3
98.5
89.8
116.9
130.7
150.9
108.6
112.7
131.5
105.5
100.9
128.3
117.1
125.4
133.9
118.8
116.3
117.7
124.3
10.5
18.3
13.7
16.8
27.8
31.0
29.0
33.5
56.2
95.0
138.9
120.0
92.0
116.2
110.0
111.0
92.1
124.4
135.6
140.9
121.2
124.7
139.1
109.6
112.6
134.5
118.6
126.8
132.7
119.5
115.2
118.4
11.2
IS.8
13.2
17.5
31.9
30.3
28.7
36.8
68.0
119.7
145.7
101.8
102.5
113.6
105.8
101.8
92.2
131.8
141.8
127.4
120.4
136.3
133.3
110.7
119.4
128.8
125.9
125.3
126.7
118.6
123.6
117.5
13.0
14. iJ
14.]L
20.<i
33.' 7
28.'7
30, >
43.0
87.( 1
158. >
125. I
88. 5
108.'7
114.8
104. 7
92. 1
101.6
136.0
142. 7
119.0
117. 3
135. 3
118.2
102. J
117. <5
123. 3
125. L
132. b
124. 3
121. D
124.2
113.*3
16.3
14.1
15.7
24.4
31.1
28.9
30.9
51.4
87.8
144.8
128.5
94.0
107.1
110.3
100.2
90.9
114.1
133.6
153.0
111.0
108.9
131.5
111.7
97.8
124.4
116.3
126.8
135.8
120.2
113.0
118.2
120.4
9.*0
12.7
15.8
14.2
19.8
31.1
29.7
29.7
41.2
75.0
129.4
134.6
101.1
102.6
113.7
105.2
99.1
100.0
131.4
143.3
124.6
117.0
132.1
125.6
105.1
118.5
125.6
124.1
130.1
125.9
119.3
120.3
117.5
(JANUARY 1984)
99
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
746.
May
June
Aug.
July
FRANCE—INDEX OF STOCK PRJX
3S
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
24.5
22.4
22.3
35.2
37.1
41.9
68.1
67.5
77.8
99.4
94.0
120.1
149.2
158.2
155.9
141.4
123.2
125.8
98.0
105.3
111.9
152.8
135.7
127.7
159.0
157.8
162.0
143.5
116.0
98.0
160.9
203.8
191.1
185.7
22.8
21.0
24.5
37.1
37.1
41.2
68.1
6S.8
84.2
89.0
94.4
125.3
157.6
174.9
150.8
132.2
119.4
121.2
101.4
103.2
119.2
148.7
139.3
130.2
158.2
152.2
122.9
150.8
109.7
100.3
149.9
207.4
201.1
193.1
21.3
21.6
24.8
34.9
36.2
43.0
75.7
69.6
93.8
83.0
94.4
122.4
163.7
183.8
151.2
126.5
124.6
116.3
97.1
111.9
128.5
145.7
136.9
140.3
168.8
139.4
131.0
146.6
101.6
120.0
155.4
185.4
209.4
145.9
21.7
21.4
25.2
34.9
36.0
45.5
76.7
72.7
95.9
84.1
100.6
130.1
165.2
184.0
145.5
126.8
123.0
112.7
94.4
116.1
127.0
140.3
137.0
147.0
174.8
148.7
141.8
140.1
93.9
130.6
164.5
189.0
197.7
184.8
20.9
21.4
25.2
32.9
36.2
47.9
67.5
73.4
104.0
84.7
108.1
132.6
166.1
167.6
141.8
120.1
121.2
109,5
98.2
109.9
134.3
135.8
140.7
155.5
179.4
132.5
130.2
138.2
97.2
133.3
162.0
201.1
162.5
183,3
20.9
22.3
26.2
36.0
37.1
46.8
68.5
76.7
108.3
80.6
106.7
137.8
160.8
158.6
137.8
112.8
115.6
108.7
96.6
105,9
122.5
132.5
140.1
147.2
173.3
122.4
126.6
135.4
104.0
135.7
171.7
201.4
152.3
166.3
23.0
22.6
30.5
34.9
39.4
59.3
7S.3
80.9
110.8
84.1
116.7
140,7
148.2
163.5
142.9
121.2
115.2
100.4
108.8
104.0
12S.8
135.1
128.2
163.2
164.7
96.7
133.9
126.8
109.7
165.1
207.4
203.0
176.5
168.4
22.4
• 21.9
31.1
34.8
39.5
61.5
71.3
80.9
102.3
82.5
125.4
135.8
149.0
155.1
139.1
123.6
112.0
99.4
107.9
102.4
134.3
136.9
118.4
163.7
167.2
103.8
135.8
112.5
111.9
158.7
187.5
218.0
163.9
170.7
21.0
21.6
30.1
34.2
39.0
68.6
67.8
71.3
103.9
81.4
132.2
142.1
158.8
164,4
133,4
126.5
110.9
106.3
105.2
104.4
132.2
133.9
124.1
153.0
152.0
103.4
141.1
108.4
111.3
155.4
189.1
215.2
169.2
174.5
21.9
19.9
31.2
34.9
39.0
73.2
69.6
78.1
99.1
61.4
132.7
13B.3
163.5
159.1
133.8
126.0
115.5
102.7
101.5
107.5
137.4
135.5
123.7
149.2
151.6
106.5
139.5
115.2
105.3
158.7
166.8
206.6
170.7
169.9
22.9
21.7
23.9
35.7
36.6
42.0
70.6
67.6
85.3
90.5
94.3
122.6
156.8
172.3
152.6
133.4
122.4
121.1
98.8
106.8
119.9
149.1
137.3
132.7
162.0
149.8
138.6
147,0
109.1
106.1
155.4
198.9
200.5
174.9
34.6
36.4
46.7
70.9
74.3
102.7
83.1
105.1
133.5
164.0
170.1
141.7
119.9
119.9
110.3
96.4
110.6
127.9
136.2
139.3
149.9
175.8
134.5
132.9
137.9
98.4
133.2
166.1
197.2
170.8
178.1
26.2
24.6
25.3
28.2
38.9
36.8
52.5
57,0
€0.2
a.5
75.0
121.0
1E7.2
151.B
130.8
110.3
F2.3
1C8.7
1C5.4
58.9
? 9.2
115.3
SO.7
'7.8
£2.4
1C6.3
71.4
10.0
*2.9
<0.7
E2.4
"9.8
110.0
S'5.0
27.8
24.3
26.3
29.5
38.3
38.1
53.0
57.6
61.1
61.7
77.B
119.2
166.6
151.0
121.0
104.2
87.9
113.2
104.6
96. 5
98. L
115. 2
93.' I
75.' i
84. (3
108. 5
79. 5
62. (»
50.0
43.5
54.8
61.1
122.1
98.8
27.2
23.1
27.0
30.1
36.6
38.1
50.5
55.8
61.6
60.7
01.7
117.1
163.6
153.2
118.8
98.5
90.0
115.1
94.4
98.4
100.1
115.5
$3.0
73.5
92.7
111.9
81.7
58.3
48.7
42.8
57.9
61.1
125.9
104.2
26.4
23.8
25.5
28.5
34.7
36.2
50.2
53.1
61.3
59.8
89.5
121.4
164.2
147.3
123.3
89.3
96.9
106.2
95.3
100.4
111.8
119.5
88.3
78.5
96.4
116.1
78.3
52.9
46.2
41.4
54.1
61.0
132.4
96.7
23.8
22,9
25.6
28.2
35,4
37.3
51.6
54.5
62.7
60.6
90.9
128.3
174.2
148.6
123.5
95.3
95.0
105.4
98.0
99,7
112,9
111.6
84.4
79.2
loa.e
106.1
77.5
53.6
44.4
43.2
56.8
61.5
135.9
91.0
21.8
22.3
25.3
29.2
35.0
37.9
55.6
51.9
63.9
59.3
94.1
143.2
178.3
13R.2
128.1
86.4
90.3
106.0
96.4
98.0
110.7
106.0
82.8
77.7
124.5
96.5
73.0
56.7
43.4
44.0
58.0
64.8
123.5
83.1
23.6
23.6
26.7
31.8
38.0
42.6
64.7
55.9
64,7
63.0
103.8
188.7
158,2
131,2
115.5
92:6
91.1
107.4
102.7
100.3
112.4
102.5
77,7
78.8
106.1
76.3
64.1
59.5
50.3
57.3
63.0
82.7
99.1
85.8
23.5
25.9
26.9
33.7
37.5
44.1
63.2
55.9
63.7
65.2
103.5
170.6
163.6
120.0
111.1
92.7
90,7
110.2
105.8
96.5
119.6
100.8
77.6
80,3
106.6
73.7
60.2
51.6
46.2
57.5
62.6
93.5
91.2
86.4
23.2
26.0
27.0
35.6
37.3
45.7
61.9
56.5
62.8
66.9
111.1
153.7
165.0
126.9
115.7
89'. 6
90.7
108.7
103.1
93.4
120.3
95.5
74.9
85.4
107.3
79.4
58.9
50.3
43.6
51.6
58.6
99.2
93.8
68.8
23.6
24.8
26.8
36.2
37.4
48.2
58.6
57.9
61.1
70.7
114.9
143.0
155.4
136.3
117.7
85.4
98.0
106.9
99.9
98.4
114.8
94.1
76.7
B5.3
96.5
72.3
61.1
55.6
40.0
51.2
55.4
96.0
96.9
91.2
27.1
24.0
26.2
29.3
37.9
37.7
52.0
56.8
61.0
61.3
78.2
119,1
162.5
152.0
123.5
104.3
89.4
112.3
101.5
97.9
99.1
115.3
92.4
75.6
86.4
108.9
77.5
60.3
50.5
42.3
55.0
60,7
119,3
99,3
24.0
23.0
25.5
28.6
35.0
37.1
52.5
53.2
62.6
59.9
91.5
131.0
172.2
144.7
125.0
90.3
94.1
105.9
96.6
99.4
111.8
112.4
85.2
78.5
109.9
106.2
76.3
54.4
44.7
42,9
56.3
62.4
130.6
90.3
22.8
21.4
25.5
30.3
36.1
40.2
59.5
53.8
62.6
59.8
101.9
149.3
165.1
136.1
123.9
84.5
86.2
107.6
95.7
99.9
107.8
102.8
82.8
80.1
117.7
90.5
66.1
64.3
43.9
44.8
56.8
66.0
99.1
78.4
748. JAPAN—INDEX OF STOCK PRICE
(1967-100)
1949...
1950.
1951**'
1952...
1953...
1954...
1956*.'.'.
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972.
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
I960...
1981...
1982...
1983...
IV Q
23,0
21,6
28.8
36 ,,2
38,5
55.,7
71.3
81 ,,2
117..9
80.9
116..9
149,, 1
153,,O
162»4
150,. 3
12B..5
116..3
107,3
98,2
104.4
125.6
138.2
135.3
162.0
163.9
113.9
136.9
130.5
105,3
150.6
188.6
199,9
177.4
169.3
21.2
21.7
25.5
22,7
21.6
28.4
35.7
38.5
55.3
72.6
81.9
115.3
81,5
115.7
144.0
151.2
163.2
145.9
125.9
114,5
104.7
99.9
103.3
123.7
136.6
134.9
160.3
165.1
111.3
134.1
129.0
104.9
155.2
189.9
200.6
174.3
166,3
21.8
21.1
30.8
34.6
39.2
67.8
69.6
76.6
101.8
81.8
130.1
138.7
157.1
159,5
135,4
125.4
112.8
102.8
104.9
104. B
134.6
135.4
122.1
155.3
156.9
104.6
136.8
112.0
109.5
157.6
187.8
213.3
167.9
171.7
AVERAGE FOR I'ERIOD
23.7
23.3
26.2
31.3
37.7
41.7
63.3
57.2
64.3
61.7
110.4
175.9
165.8
136.6
120.3
83.8
92.5
108.6
98.5
101.3
111.8
106.7
81.7
80.1
104.8
88.0
64.3
63.9
45.3
46.4
61.7
74.4
112.0
86.1
®
23.4
22.8
26.1
31.1
37.3
41,5
62.5
55.6
63.9
61.5
105.4
171.3
163.0
134.6
119.9
87.0
90.6
107.9
99.0
100.5
110.7
104.0
80.7
79.7
109.5
84.9
64.8
62.6
46.5
50.2
61.2
74.4
103.4
83.4
23.4
25.6
26.9
35.2
37.4
46.0
61.2
56.8
62.5
68.3
109.6
155.8
161.3
127.7
114.8
89.2
93.1
10B.6
102.9
96.1
118.2
96.8
76.5
83.7
104.1
75,1
60.1
52.5
43.3
53.4
58.9
96.2
94.0
88.8
11.9
12.5
14.3
13.4
12.0
13.4
13.9
12.2
11.1
9.4
10.5
13,4
13.1
10.9
8.9
]4.8
10.0
15.8
36.1
30.0
10*7
15.2
30.0
28.0
10.3
17.6
29.3
27.3
11.1
19.5
28.3
28.0
10.9
20.9
29.9
26.3
11.6
21.4
33.4
28.2
12.2
21.5
35.7
29.4
13.5
24.7
36.2
28.3
13.3
26.0
35.4
26.9
13.3
29.7
34.2
28.1
9.9
35.7
48.3
43.5
58.4
78.5
107.6
98.0
97.1
88.4
86.4
98.5
103.3
94.6
125.6
158.4
145.1
36*9
47.4
43.2
61.5
81.0
104.4
93.2
101.9
86.1
82.1
101.6
103.0
94.8
126,7
165.1
154.4
10.1
16,0
27.3
27.5
39.3
48.8
44.3
62.7
86.9
108.1
86.9
109.5
83.8
79.6
101.1
101.1
98.2
131-5
164.6
164.0
40.0
45.7
45.4
64.6
85.0
107.6
88.4
109.2
88.4
79.0
102.5
104.2
101.9
136.6
142.0
165.4
232.0
326.0
303.2
298.7
309.1
343,3
371.0
411.1
422.9
502.8
503.4
41*9
43.8
46.9
67.5
63.6
107.3
89.5
108.1
91.2
76,5
99.9
105.3
105.0
136.3
142.8
174.7
41.4
41.5
46.3
69.4
88.1
112.4
90.9
102.8
92.0
75.1
99.4
105.3
109.0
135.8
143.7
182. 6
41.3
42.3
50.0
77.9
96.0
70.0
79.0
92.0
82.4
84.4
98.5
96.5
122.8
144.5
139.7
159.2
44.3
41.5
51.4
79.0
99.4
88.9
67.8
88.1
80.7
88.1
98.2
94.6
117.7
149.3
139.4
160.9
341 * 3
295.3
293.0
318.1
339.6
382.8
400.6
424.9
534.4
480.8
40.6
43.8
47.7
74,2
94.6
97.4
85.3
94.0
86.4
87.2
99.6
96.0
123.4
140.9
141.7
163.2
286.2
320*1
261.1
271.0
321.5
351.2
387.6
412.5
437.6
511.3
481.6
312*2
239.7
279.5
318.4
345.0
395,0
408.2
447.5
493.8
490.4
300 * 9
245.0
286.0
314-2
332.5
396.9
403.4
447.8
505.6
512.7
46.0
40.4
53.4
76.8
96.3
85.8
91.2
84.1
81.3
91.7
97.1
90.9
118.3
155.0
134.4
171.1
339.9
273.8
255.5
266.2
330.6
328.6
404.9
410.8
443.5
512.7
528.2
13*4
27.5
35.3
27.8
33.6
43.9
41.4
51.6
77.9
97.9
81.6
86.0
88.1
81.5
88.1
97.9
94.0
119.6
149.6
137.8
163.7
325.2
306.0
297.0
319.3
340.7
373.2
402.3
423.8
515.2
489.6
41.7
42.6
47.1
70.9
90.3
106.7
89.2
94.6
89.5
82.1
100.5
99.1
114.0
133.2
144.5
171.9
278.6
337.3
270.7
200.6
321.8
345.0
380.3
408.0
429.1
540.7
474.3
10.5
17.7
28.3
27.6
29. 3
40.4
46.1
45.5
295.6
246.7
283.9
321.1
335.4
399.6
407.5
446.3
504.0
510.4
'•is'.s
A8.6
'.1.8
!>6.2
76.5
1(12.8
<>3.7
03.2
((8.1
06.4
<»6.3
1(10.8
<>2.9
i:!4.2
UiO.6
i;t9.4
11)7.2
3'2*1
2U2.0
2!>0.1
305.4
3-13.8
3U9.0
4!.6.1
4:so.i
4!i7.9
5!.8.9
1 QE
350.0
296.1
271.6
305.2
344.7
348.3
409.9
425.5
458.2
516.9
ft
Ortfi
1
349.2
291.6
2B4.0
309.4
341.3
359.7
405.7
413.0
467.3
466.2
330.8
293.0
290.5
302.9
339.3
371.8
402.9
417.6
494.6
484.5
NOTE: Thesi; series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
100
24.5
23.8
26.2
31.0
36.9
40.6
57.0
55.6
62.5
62.7
96.2
144.3
164.8
139.8
120.8
92.7
91. B
108.7
100.0
98.5
110.0
107.1
83.7
79.3
102.5
93.8
69.7
57.4
46.2
47.2
57.8
73.4
111.6
90.5
AVERAGE FOR I >ERIOD
9.6
•iO.l
22.1
21.5
27.1
35.2
37.7
53.0
70.9
75.2
101.3
84.2
111.3
134.7
157.3
166.3
143.9
126,1
117.4
109.7
100.0
106.4
126.5
139.3
133.4
149.6
165.0
125.1
136.1
131.5
105.5
138.0
174.8
202.5
178.4
172.8
®
30.1
•14.6
Annual
AVERAGE FOR 1SERIOD
22 ..0
20 ,,5
25,8
36 ,,0
,37,, 7
50,8
71,3
63 ,,7
117 ,,3
79,. 5
113..6
142,3
152., 3
163,7
144.5
128.1
112.1
106.5
92.8
101.4
119,7
136.6
141.3
155.8
166.8
123.4
131.4
129.7
99.8
149.8
173.7
198.9
168.9
161.1
747. ITALY—INDEX OF STOCK PRICE
(1967=100)
1949...
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963.,
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974,.
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1982..
1983...
III Q
©
(1967=100)
1949...
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969. .
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1982..
1983..
II Q
15.3
33.6
29.4
3Q. 5
36.0
46.1
42.8
58.7
76.7
104.9
95.0
97.4
87. S
85.0
98.8
102.4
94.1
125,5
161.4
146.3
64.9
85.2
107.7
86.3
108.9
87.8
78.4
101.2
103.5
101.7
135.5
149.8
168.0
11*6
21.3
33.0
28.6
31.0
41.2
42.6
47,0
71.5
91.0
105.5
88.5
97.1
69.3
81,5
99.8
100.1
115.5
136.6
143.3
172.6
357*1
289.9
268.6
306.7
343.3
349.0
410.6
419.S
461.1
507.3
327,3
300,7
295.4
310.4
341.1
372.0
405.4
421.4
504.2
492.5
332.9
275.7
281. S
320.5
345.3
383.6
407.0
430.S
52fl,8
478.9
12.0
8.4
11.3
20.4
32.5
26.3
31.1
40.4
44.6
46.8
68.3
68. 2
99.9
89.4
97.9
86.5
83.2
99.4
100.0
107.7
136.8
146.1
162.7
255.8
328.2
278.3
282.4
314.7
341.2
376.0
407.6
429.4
499.5
497.3
(JANUARY 1984)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jarr.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
51.1
57.5
54.9
58.9
55.3
62.3
67.5
66.4
62.7
70.4
71.9
70.8
78.5
80.8
86.5
93.1
9a .0
96.5
103.2
110.8
109.5
105.0
116.5
130.3
131.1
111.2
122.4
133.5
141.6
147.6
140.1
143.4
137.0
139.4
51.4
57.6
55.4
59.1
55.4
63.1
67.2
66.0
62.1
70.1
73.2
70.4
78.8
81.0
86.7
93 • 7
99.1
96.4
104.4
111.5
109.1
107.3
118.0
131.4
128.7
109.2
122.8
134.5
142.4
147.2
140.5
143.0
136.2
140.9
-15.1
4.5
-9.7
-2.1
-17.0
0.0
4.2
-10.2
7
2.1
11.5
4.2
2.2
15.8
3.2
2.9
7.0
24.5
-17.7
10.7
-12.5
26.2
-2.2
17.2
-13.6
6. 5
-10.0
5.3
-0.4
-3.4
6.8
14.1
-2.8
7.6
-5.6
-5.2
-7.0
-10.9
-5.0
24.0
-6.6
4.7
3.0
2.8
8.0
14.3
-1.2
14.9
7.9
-4.3
29.7
16.6
lo.'e
-19.9
-19.6
4.0
19.8
-0,4
-4.1
-0.3
22.3
-12.3
14.0
6.5
11.3
8.2
6.6
11.8
2.4
5.2
0.8
-12.5
18. 3
15.0
9.0
-2.7
-4.7
4.3
-5,9
0.2
19.1
0.2
1.7
17.6
-10.0
6.6
7.3
0.5
-9,4
10,0
1,5
-1.4
0.3
6.0
3,7
-3,2
-11.8
33.3
7.5
1.9
-6.3
27.2
-2.1
2.3
4.2
10.7
6.0
13.1
4.7
-8.1
13.3
8.6
-1.2
-2.2
4. 0
14.4
-6.4
-20.6
17.9
25.0
-3.7
-1.7
-12.4
8.9
0.7
-6.0
13.3
5.7
4.8
4.4
11.7
-3.6
8.6
13.6
-5.9
10.4
12.4
12.'9
-6.0
-22.8
7.6
14.4
7.0
-1.5
-5.6
13.7
ii!s
-1.6
-14.5
13.5
12.5
8.1
6.1
-7.7
-3.0
-4.1
30.8
4.2
5.7
-6,4
-13,2
5.5
2.7
19.1
4^5
0.1
-5.2
30.9
-9.9
6.2
7.6
3.8
1.3
-10.0
5.4
-8.2
10.3
7.2
6^2
3.8
-3.9
3.9
-3.9
3.8
16.2
-11.5
16.4
-1.9
2.5
4.4
6.4
17.6
-1.0
-4.8
-2.5
16.3
-7.3
11.7
5.9
10.4
8.7
5.4
10.1
1.0
-1.2
26.2
-15,0
Oct.
10
910. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS
(1967=100)
48.2
52.2
58.7
55.5
59.7
55.6
64.1
67.0
65.4
62.2
71.4
72.9
70.9
78.8
81.6
47.8
53.0
58.2
55.6
59.8
56.1
65.2
66.7
65.3
61.6
72.3
72.1
71.4
79.9
82.4
47.4
53.3
57.9
55.8
60.1
56.1
66.0
67.1
65.3
62.0
73.7
70.8
72.7
80.0
83,2
46.8
54.4
56.7
55.4
59.7
56.7
66.1
67.4
64.8
62.2
74.0
70.9
73.9
79.6
83.9
47.0
55.4
56.3
55.9
59.1
57.3
66.5
66.3
65.0
63.4
74.2
71.0
74.8
78.7
84.7
46.8
56.3
55.1
57.1
58.1
57.9
66.7
66.0
65.3
64.7
73.7
71.1
75.7
77.9
84.5
47.7
58.6
54.5
56.8
58.2
58.7
67.4
66.4
65.2
66.2
73.4
71.4
75.7
78.7
84.3
48.9
59.9
54.1
57.5
57.3
58.4
67.5
66. 5
65.1
67.5
73.1
71.4
76.7
79.3
84.7
50.6
59.2
54.7
59.2
55.9
59.7
67.9
66.3
64.2
68.7
73.3
71.5
76.4
79.9
85.7
50.8
58.4
54.9
58.7
55.8
60.9
67.1
66.4
63.5
69.4
72.7
71.2
77.5
80.0
86.3
1965!.!
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
94.5
99.9
97.4
104.4
112.2
107.5
108.6
119.2
132.4
128.7
107.7
126.1
134.5
141.0
147.7
141.4
142.1
135.1
94.8
100.8
97.0
105.5
112.1
106.6
110.2
120.7
134.1
128.0
107.6
128.0
136.5
142.8
147.5
140.4
140.4
135.7
95.2
101.9
96.9
105.7
111.7
105.5
111.9
122.2
134.2
127.8
107.8
128.8
138.4
144.9
149.3
137.4
141.7
134.7
95.0
101.5
97.1
104.7
112.7
104.5
112.9
123.0
133.4
126.1
111.0
129.3
138.5
146.3
146.4
133.4
144.6
136.0
95.6
100.2
97.9
105.4
112.2
105.1
113.7
122.9
133.5
125.5
113.4
130.5
138.9
146.4
147.6
130.9
144.5
136.2
95.3
99.4
99.2
106.0
111.2
105.5
113.5
123.3
133.1
123.8
115.8
131.6
139.8
146.9
146.5
132.0
143.2
135.5
95.5
99.1
100.1
106.9
110.2
104.8
113.3
124.4
132.7
123.5
118.2
132.2
138.5
145.4
145.2
135.1
142.9
136.2
95.8
98.3
101.9
106.5
110.3
104-7
113.7
126.0
131.5
120.3
119.0
131.9
140.5
146.2
144.5
138.3
142.4
136.1
96.4
97.3
102.3
108.1
110.8
104.9
114.6
127.5
130.9
116.5
120.6
132.4
141.1
146.8
144.5
141.2
139.3
137.5
97^0
96.7
102.5
110.3
110.7
104.4
115.5
129.4
131.0
113.5
122.0
132.2
141.9
147.9
141.7
142.4
136.9
138.6
47.8
52.8
58.3
55.6
59.9
55.9
65.1
66.9
65.3
61.9
72.5
71.9
71.7
79.6
82.4
87.9
94.8
100.9
97.1
105.2
112.0
106.5
110.2
120.7
133.6
128.2
107.7
127.6
136.5
142.9
148.2
139.7
141.4
135.2
9 LOC. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
{COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE , PERCENT)
— 15. 9
20.4
25.5
2.2
12.9
4.4
20.8
-3.5
-10.4
1.9
24.7
-4.8
8.9
0.0
9.3
7.1
10.7
10.1
13.2
0.0
7.8
-16.2
15.5
12.9
9.5
0.0
-15.3
37. 5
0.0
-11.2
4.2
8.0
-7.3
-9.3
43.4
—9. 5
20.0
-9.8
2.2
2.0
—9.6
7.0
-6.0
4.4
6.2
-14.2
27.8
-22.2
-8.3
-7.7
5.3
24.4
-8.1
11.4
-11.4
—5.0
21.3
-22.8
29.0
-18.5
11.3
22.7
-5.2
-1.8
-11.0
16.2
-12.4
8.8
18.1
12.4
14.7
3.9
11.4
-4.8
13.4
-1.1
-9.6
0. 0
15.8
7,4
0.0
8.1
25.9
-19.6
24.2
1.5
12.3
2.8
5.2
13.9
-1.2
2.3
-4.2
-11*7
13.6
1.8
5.5
-R.8
3.9
5.0
1.7
21.7
-5.8
10.6
12.9
-2.5
-4.6
2.5
-10.8
11.3
-10.8
13.5
7.5
-17.9
3.8
25.8
3.3
1.7
15.6
-12.8
12.1
12.8
7.8
-14.3
10.3
8.3
-5.2
7.1
13.3
3.7
-5-3
5.7
27.6
-7.8
1.7
15.4
-11.5
-2.8
-3.9
-3.7
-9.2
17.2
7.0
-10.2
16.2
16.5
-6.3
-1.1
19. 7
19.4
16.4
-1.6
-8.2
-13.4
5.5
22.7
16.0
0.9
-1.9
2.3
7. 8
18.0
19.1
15.7
-22.8
11.7
-8.5
26.3
8.1
-6.9
-14.8
42.1
-1.0
0.9
-5.6
29.3
0.9
12.2
-21.0
-29.8
27.5
12.2
17.2
3.5
0.8
10.3
-20.3
-0.8
1.8
15.1
61.7
-12.3
-6.1
2.1
1 "7
A
30.1
-8.5
15.8
-17.1
£L C\
-13.2
14.2
41.9
-25.7
1f>
91.7
95.9
98.2
101.4
107.2
110.4
104.8
113.9
126.0
131.7
120.1
119.3
132.2
140.0
146.1
144.7
138.2
141.5
136.6
—O • U
4.7
13.3
7.5
-1.8
31.7
-4.8
5.2
0.0
13.0
-2.8
12.7
2.5
-3.6
11.4
10.7
-10.3
-7.7
1.8
1.8
-1.8
26.3
-4.8
0.0
17.1
9.5
5.8
9.7
3.8
-9.3
23.8
-4.4
1.1
-1.1
7.3
-3.5
-15.4
23.5
3.3
1.7
-4.6
9.5
15.1
16.9
7.8
-11.5
4.8
19.6
5.6
2.3
J\J * £.
-13!3
1.8
-12.3
12.9
-9.4
-4.9
18.7
1.5
8.7
1.3
7.7
-7.2
2.4
27.3
-1.1
-5.6
4.0
-3.5
-15.1
28.6
11.2
-3.5
-2.9
27.9
16.6
-10.3
-27.0
8.4
15.3
-5.3
-32.0
17.4
19.4
0.9
-26.9
14.9
7.4
0.0
-14.1
18.7
-12.4
-6.5
16.6
12.7
2.8
3.9
13.1
-2.5
8.5
5.6
-12.3
7.1
10.9
8.7
0.9
-21.8
4.0
8.1
4.2
-8.6
10.6
-10.3
-6.0
25.0
-10.6
-11.6
-10.1
32.1
-2.5
6.4
7.1
18.8
6.8
-5.6
32.4
-4.1
-0.9
5.4
5.2
5.0
0.0
28.3
-23.2
13.1
10.3
7.0
9.4
-20.9
10.7
-18.8
10.0
16.1
-2.5
-2.4
-12.7
8.8
0.9
7.2
-2.2
7.0
-3.2
3.5
-3.3
-6.8
13.7
7.2
28.6
-1.4
3.0
14.1
-15.5
15.9
-1.8
0.0
-10.0
20.8
-3.8
-1.1
9.9
6.8
9.8
9.1
19.2
-15.1
6.0
10.1
-13.2
29.5
0.0
-0.6
-14.0
18.3
-6.4
-3.3
9.7
7.8
8.8
7.2
6.5
-10.4
5.2
-0.7
-3.5
24.8
-4.1
-1.8
-12.5
8.4
-0.5
-6.0
13.2
5.6
4.7
4.4
-7.4
17.4
-8.2
13.1
-9.3
9.9
-7.1
5.2
-3.6
8.5
-8.6
-6.6
-1.4
1.8
-2.9
-6.0
-11.1
2.4
-3.3
27.5
19.2
-4.9
13.9
-13.8
12.3
3.9
1.0
-5.3
25.5
-3.9
1.2
8.1
6.9
5.2
9.4
4. 0
-8.3
13.5
8.6
-2.1
16.8
-2.* I
3-fI
>
0. i 1
j
13.- 1
11.5
2.1
4.4
7.0
-1.4
22.7
-0.6
-5.9
-7.9
12.0
1.1
-1.7
6.9
8.2
4.2
7.5
12.5
2.'9
7.6
3.1
-7.8
12.8
10.5
12.4
15.9
-3.5
-20.8
7.2
2.7
22.0
-l.f i
-7.<>
23." I
8.(D
7. I
10. 5
0. J
-24.' 1
12.2
1.5
19.4
-3.2
-11.9
33.2
9.0
4.1
5.6
-7.3
-14.8
4.3
2.4
19.0
-2.1
-8.0
28.6
9.3
0.0
-2.4
-3.2
5.2
-4.6
0.6
15.5
0.0
10
A.\J »5J
-5.9
-15.6
21.3
4.4
4.7
-0.5
-8.1
24.6
-5.7
-0.3
12.2
3.9
14
.1. ** .3J
-6.4
-21.6
17.6
2.5
3.8
-0.3
-5.3
30.9
-10.5
6.0
7.6
10.2
14.4
-1.2
-27.0
11.9
4.9
3.2
3.9
-11.6
15.6
-14.3
10.1
7.8
12.4
12.8
-6.6
-22.8
7.5
6.5
3.7
1.1
-10.6
5.2
-8.6
10.3
6.9
13.4
9.6
-6.8
-18.9
14.1
7.1
-2.5
-0.5
-0.8
-0.8
-5.2
20.5
18.8
14. 5
8.0
-6.6
-1.5
17.0
11.3
8.6
0.7
-9.5
-1.5
-1.3
26.2
6.8
5. 2
-2,4
-9.2
28.4
8.8
3.8
4.6
-3,4
-11.3
4.0
1.5
18.0
4.0
14.0
-5.8
-22.0
17.5
2.3
6. 2
2.1
-7.6
26.3
-10.7
4. 3
10.1
197l!!!
21.3
18.J
1973!!!
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
12^2
-9.1
-12.3
19.6
9.3
3.4
-0.3
0.9
-8.1
-3.7
26.0
-6.5
19.4
-12.4
2.2
-4.6
8.8
8.2
-2.4
-1.8
12.2
10.9
-6.0
20.5
-5.9
11.<>
I
1.4
Annual
8.0
17
- L '1
.X
-5.0
-28.7
13.5
0.0
10.2
7.1
-9.3
23.4
-15.8
7.2
10.5
48.7
56.3
56.0
57.1
57.9
58.6
66.6
66.5
64.5
65.7
73.1
71.3
75.2
79.6
84.5
90. 6
96.0
99.0
100.0
107.2
111.1
105.5
113.5
125.0
132,2
121.2
115.7
130,9
139,4
145.8
145.1
138.2
140.9
136.8
5.3
-3.6
12.3
3.2
7.2
8.2
5.9
-2.3
8.6
7.2
-1.9
-1.0
10 • 2
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
36.7
22.3
-2.9
15.5
-14.3
13.0
7.4
1.8
-6.6
27.1
-2.2
2.3
3.8
10.7
5.8
13.1
-11.1
18.0
-12.9
-0.7
0.0
8.2
13.1
2.4
-3.6
0.0
15.4
-10.5
18.0
4.1
11.8
10.0
2.1
6.6
-1.2
1. 2
1.8
51.1
57.8
55.1
58.9
55.5
62.1
67.3
66.3
62.8
70.0
72.6
70,8
78.3
80.6
86.5
93. 2
98.0
96.5
103.4
110.9
109.8
105.6
116.7
130.4
130.3
111.3
122.4
133.4
142.0
147.6
140.8
142.9
136.7
139.6
O
17*9
17.2
36.7
-14.7
12.0
-11.6
7.9
6.2
1.2
0.6
28.5
-5.8
2.3
10.6
3.1
0.0
5.9
-11.7
15.6
2.1
2.9
6.9
5.2
19.7
-0.6
-4.2
-0.6
22.2
-12.5
13.7
6.2
11.3
8.1
6.6
11.8
2.1
5.1
0.7
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are centered
within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and
annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
49.1
59.2
54.4
57.8
57.1
58.9
67.6
66.4
64.8
67.5
73.3
71.4
76.3
79.3
84.9
7.9
34.6
-14.6
10.5
-9.7
14.9
8.1
-5.8
2.5
2S.3
-3.2
2.9
10.1
-4.4
1.9
6.9
2.1
-9.1
12.9
-11.6
15.7
5.0
5.2
6.3
5.9
20.0
-4.7
-6.5
-6.8
11.2
1.1
3.4
7.3
8.2
8.1
7. 5
11.9
2.1
9.2
4.8
-2.8
-5.0
21.0
12.1
7.2
5.8
-8.5
-3.6
-2.9
30.5
46.9
55.4
56.0
56.1
59.0
57.3
66.4
66.6
65,0
63.4
74.0
71.0
74.8
78.7
84.4
89.8
95.3
100.4
98.1
105.4
112.0
105.0
113.4
123.1
133.3
125.1
113.4
130.5
139.1
146.5
146.8
132.1
144.1
135.9
-5.0
24.5
-18.0
9.6
-12.7
13.5
4.3
-6.4
0.0
18.6
0.0
1.7
17.6
-10.1
6.4
7.0
0.4
-9.5
9.8
1-1
-1.8
0.0
s'.B
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959.
. .
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968.
..
1969...
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
9IOC. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATI,, PERCENT)
s!s
III Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1949...
1950...
1951....
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955.,.
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971.•.
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
MO
7,4
-9,0
12,4
6.9
-4.9
0.2
19.7
2.6
-0.5
16.1
-6.8
6.6
7.8
2.0
-7.0
8.8
12.4
-7.8
5.2
5.5
-6.0
25.7
-1.6
-2.8
-11.5
12.9
-1.9
-3.7
9.9
7.2
5.9
6.4
11.2
-2.6
7.1
12. S
-6.7
9. 3
12.0
12.3
-4.9
-22.9
11.2
6.2
1.5
1.5
-7.7
6.7
-9.4
13.6
6.8
13.S
-4.1
7.3
-6,1
14.2
6.7
-1.9
-5.3
13.9
3.2
-2.6
XI. 4
3.3
7.0
8.1
5. 6
-1.9
7.6
7.3
-2.4
-1.3
10.4
11.5
-1.2
-15.1
13.9
8.6
5.7
4.2
-4.S
3.0
-4.4
4.5
(JANUARY 1984}
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
IQ
920. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
(1967=100)
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1963!!!
1964...
1965.,.
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969. . .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980.
1981...
1962...
1983...
49. 5
47. )
57. ij
57.')
63.t)
60,0
6 1 . •*
68.:»
6 9 . <i
6 4 . :i
67.0
71.'.i
67.tl
72.0
74.!*
78. i
85.-!
93. i
99.4
102. E
109.1
no.e
108.6
114.0
125.5
128.7
116.2
121.4
128,3
137.1
149.3
150. 7
146.8
138.4
49.1
47.6
57.4
50.8
64.3
60.0
62.3
68.2
70.0
63.0
67.7
71.6
66.8
48.5
49.1
57.6
58.7
64.9
59.4
63.5
68.2
69.9
62.1
68.8
71.0
67.3
48.1
50.3
57.9
58.5
64.9
59.1
64.3
68.8
69.3
61.0
69.8
71.3
67.5
47.5
51.4
57.8
58.8
65.0
58.9
65.2
68.4
68.9
61.2
70.6
70.9
68.3
75!l
79.4
8R.0
94.3
98.8
103.5
109.9
110.8
108.5
114.4
127.0
128.0
114.6
122.9
129.2
138.3
149.4
75.4
79.5
86.8
95.4
98.9
104.0
110. 5
110.8
108.8
115.6
127.4
127. R
113.0
123.6
130.9
140.0
151.2
76.0
80.4
87.3
95.5
99.1
104.4
110.8
110.5
109.1
116.6
127.2
127.6
113.3
124.3
131.6
143,0
149.1
14?!2
139.9
147. 2
139.2
147.1
138,0
1952.!!
1953...
1954...
1956.!!
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
-23.2
19.3
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
46.6
55,8
57.8
62.8
61.9
60.4
67.8
69.4
66.6
66.2
68.3
68.1
72.0
47.2
57.1
57.7
63.4
60.8
61.2
68.2
69.9
65.4
65.9
70.9
67.2
72.4
49.0
48.2
57.5
58.5
64.3
59.8
62.6
68.2
69.8
63.1
67.8
71.5
67.0
51.5
57.9
58.6
64.9
59.0
65.0
68.5
69.1
61.4
70.4
70.9
68.4
47.2
55.7
57.4
59.6
64.1
58.8
66.4
67.7
68.9
63.6
68.7
69.7
69.9
46.5
56.3
57.7
62.9
61.9
60.3
67,8
69.6
66.6
65.6
68.9
68.1
71.8
47.6
52.9
57.6
59.9
63.8
59.5
65.4
68.5
68.6
63.4
69.0
70.0
69.3
78.0
82.1
91.2
98.3
ion. 3
107.7
112.9
106.7
110.2
121.8
129.7
125.2
118.5
125.3
136.6
147.4
150.3
77.7
83.7
92.1
98.3
102.0
108.5
111.9
105.8
111.0
123.2
130.7
122.2
118.9
126.8
137.2
148.4
149.9
78.3
85.1
93.0
98.6
103.3
108.9
112.0
107.6
112.2
124.5
129.8
118.4
119.5
127,8
138.1
149.7
150.0
75.0
79.2
86.1
94.4
99.0
103.4
109.8
110.8
108.6
114.7
126.6
128.2
114.6
122.6
129.5
138,5
150.0
76.3
80.9
87.9
96.2
99.1
105.2
111.0
110.1
109.5
116.9
127.5
128.0
114.1
124.6
132.6
143.4
150.1
77.0
82.5
89.7
97.5
100.1
106.8
112.4
109.4
109.7
119.0
128.4
127.3
117.0
125.5
134.9
145.7
150.7
78.0
83.6
92.1
98.4
101.9
108.4
112.3
106.7
111.1
123.2
130.1
121.9
119.0
126.6
137.3
148.5
150.1
76.6
01.5
89.0
96.6
100.0
106.0
111.4
109.2
109.7
118.4
Uft.2
126.4
116.2
124.8
133.6
144,0
150.2
146.5
134.5
144.5
132.9
143!o
132.7
140.9
132.6
147.1
139.2
147.2
138.0
147.1
135.4
142.8
132.7
;L46.0
136.3
26.4
-4.2
16.6
31.8
-15.4
19.0
-10.3
32.7
6.3
0.4
30.0
5.9
12.1
-19.4
17.1
7.5
9.8
-8.7
-1.9
-1.2
-3.3
29.9
-7.4
0.8
10.7
2.9
12.3
-15.2
15.9
1.4
9.3
6.2
-4.3
76.3
81.0
87.9
96.0
99.0
105.2
110.8
110.1
109.6
117.2
127.5
128.2
114.1
124.6
132.5
143.1
150.6
76.6
81.2
88.5
97.1
99.2
106.0
111.4
109.7
109.8
116.9
127.8
128.3
114.9
124.8
133.6
144.2
ISO.6
76.8
81.9
89.4
97.3
99.5
106.6
112,1
109.8
109.6
117.8
128.7
128.2
115,6
125,3
134,3
145.0
151.0
:
]
]
1
1
146^
138.8
147.5
137.3
i47!e
136.4
1 17.'3
] 35.2
-9.3
-7.3
-13,7
45.1
-9.5
33.6
-14.0
29,6
-7.3
34.9
-14.2
56.4
L3.7
20.3
-41.7
17.5
19.4
-13.9
4.4
-14.7
9,8
0.0
-2,0
11.8
-11.4
-4.0
0.0
-5.9
6.3
1.9
-4.0
-7.9
-5.4
-20.4
3.8
-4,0
70.3
- L3.8
39.9
-12,3
19.0
-5.5
1.8
-1.7
o!o
n!i
-e!e
-36.0
50.9
-5.0
-18.4
22.0
18.3
7.1
-21.7
13.3
-4.9
-1.7
-15.9
21.3
-9.6
-9.8
-19.3
18.9
5.2
-6.7
4.0
14.7
-6.5
0.0
3.5
19.1
21.1
-9.7
12.9
-11.6
10.0
14.5
7.1
4.8
9.3
8.6
13.0
-11.5
11.9
-3.5
-6.7
1.7
8.1
9.1
4.2
7.8
1963.*.!
1964...
1965...
1.6
4.7
10*. 1
12.9
4.3
8.8
4.9
1.5
11.8
1967!!!
10.2
-7!o
1.2
2.5
1969!!!
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974.,.
1975.
1976...
1977
1978.'!!
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
2!a
9.2
0,0
-1.1
6.8
0,0
3.4
4.3
13.3
-12.1
11.7
21.0
10.1
-9.7
3.8
15.3
-6.3
—15.3
15.9
—15. 5
7.1
-8.4
-3.2
11.0
15.'8
0.8
15.5
5.9
3.3
0.0
-19.3
13.8
-5.8
—20. 7
20*. 8
-1.9
0.0
3.5
-8.1
4.8
3.0
0.0
-?:?
0.0
0.0
9.9
10.5
-5.0
6.3
-20.6
22.2
8.4
-3.4
-17.8
34.1
13.2
-16.0
18.3
7.7
-5.2
-3.4
14.6
1.6
9.2
8.5
2.7
8.3
-1.2
2.5
3.7
0.1
1.2
1.2
-13.5
14.1
7.6
-1.2
3.3
-3.2
3.4
10.9
-1.9
-1.9
3.2
7.0
0,0
-4.3
5.6
6.4
2.9
5.8
8,8
2.9
6,7
7.8
1.1
1.1
3.2
-3.2
-22.6
9.1
6.2
8.8
1.1
9.1
20.8
14.7
9.7
9.7
-7.3
-11.7
-25.3
29.0
-15.5
0.8
12.8
-0.8
-9.9
-1.6
7.2
26.1
12.5
0.0
22.3
-10.1
-9.7
9.0
-19.6
-5.3
56.6
-14.8
6.9
0.0
0.1
-18.7
18.9
1.3
0.8
12.4
-3.1
12.6
-3.8
14.3
-14.6
-6.1
5.4
-16.3
12.2
21.5
-11.4
13.3
1.2
11.5
13.0
3.8
12.5
-1.9
-3.3
-14.8
-15.6
17.1
-10. » !
21.6
2.1
6.4
R.3
8.9
8.1
9.7
8.0
10.8
1.5
7.5
1.3
2. 5
5.0
1.1
6.1
3.3
4.4
22.4
13.8
13.4
-8.0
-31.6
-4.0
-3.9
12.9
2.9
0.9
-0.9
4.4
5.3
3.2
6.4
8.1
8.1
1.9
4!9
1.9
1.0
-2.8
15.4
9.9
14.6
3.9
9.6
0.0
6.9
3.2
1.7
11.0
e!i
—2, 5
—4. 7
-12.2
17.8
-7.6
8,9
11.2
-0.8
13.4
-15*2
-13.4
11.5
8.5
—10.4
7.7
3.1
3.5
2,A
8.5
13.1
-0.9
-17.5
o!9
-5.0
16.5
2.2
-2.2
-3.0
9.6
8.8
5.0
o!a
0.1
L.7
-1.6
13.5
-e!3
-6.0
22.5
4.7
9.7
-6.0
4.4
9.5
0.8
6.8
-11.8
-1.8
11.4
-ie!3
-0.9
7.7
-3.8
6.6
-4.9
20.7
11.9
-13.7
15.9
2.1
8.6
5.9
6.1
8.9
-3.1
3.1
-8.8
15.2
0.6
-3.9
-19.2
15.3
-1.3
1.1
5.8
0.5
6.1
10.9
-4.8
11.1
3.1
8.6
2.7
11.6
10.0
13.0
17.1
10.9
8.3
9.6
8.3
9.1
6.1
8.1
3.3
7.0
12.1
10.3
0.7
1.2
4.5
9.8
2.9
-2.1
-5.0
-7.2
5.9
7.3
-3.1
3!e
-3.0
16.3
12.7
-3.0
-25.8
10.2
4. 9
4.5
-5.4
0. 7
10.8
6. 2
-3.8
-3.3
9. 6
14.2
3.3
4.9
3.4
9.6
6.4
4.1
6.0
2.6
-3. 7
4.8
10.8
-5.8
11.2
-21.4
-7.9
• .9
8.3
l!2
-1. 2
0.8
l!2
i!e
5.4
< .9
6.0
6.4
-4.2
-1.1
3.3
-3.9
4!a
-2.5
&!s
-3.9
3.3
-2.5
12.8
12.9
-8.0
-22.7
14.2
12.7
9.6,
-6.0
-17.0
14.4
10.1
9.4
5.5
-5.0
4.6
1.3
1.6
6.9
3.9
8.5
12.6
-1.6
-17.6
0.8
-5.3
16.4
4.2
4.8
1.9
8.4
3.3
8.5
5.7
5.2
-0.8
10.2
1.6
0.6
-1.7
5.6
10.6
14.6
3.3
-17.9
-0.8
-3.1
13.8
5.3
7.8
3.2
2.7
5.3
-8.4
2.4
4.5
5.S
8.2
10. 7
5.6
4.1
3.0
-3.4
-9.6
9.9
10.7
18.4
-0,5
-14.1
-4.7
6.2
0.8
-1 .2
3.9
-7.1
11.7
1.6
-11.3
1.4
-4.6
16.2
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
-18.6
15.7
28.0
-11.6
8.0
11.5
9.9
2*1
6.0
0.6
0.6
16.6
-13.4
-6.6
11.0
2.7
3.2
'.8
>.7
- .0
.2
-]L . 4
-< . 1
! .3
: .3
< .2
9.9
2.1
4.9
9.9
-14.0
-5.0
9.5
2.2
-4.2
-4.9
1.4
1.2
-8.9
11.3
2.7
-2.9
1.4
•;.s
-10. R
-2.1
-12.2
7.4
](.7
14.3
13.7
9.6
2.8
0.9
2.8
3.1
9.4
3.5
-2.8
11.7
-5.5
] 1.6
2.6
-9.0
10.4
-15.1
.4
-OL 5
4L6
-2L7
-7L9
9[5
0.0
7.0
6.8
5.6
4.2
8.0
7.0
-23.3
-1.8
10.0
-8.1
-9.9
10.3
-1.8
12.1
-11.2
-7.2
15.0
2.9
6.5
8.1
0.0
-3.3
1.1
-10.0
8.1
6.8
4.8
7.2
6.9
10.2
-1.1
9.9
-14.4
-5.5
10.2
9.9
1.5
5.3
1.1
7.4
-15.8
4.3
MOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience oftiheuser. Percent changes are centered
within
11.iT.1i the spans: 1-mcnth changes are
cue placed
^ i^cu on
vn the
uic2d month and 3-month changes are pjlaced on the 3d month. Quarterly and
annual fiaures
averages of the centered
centered chanties.
annual
figures are averages
changes.
102
7,2
8.1
8.7
0.5
-1 • 9
-3.3
-5.5
10.8
-16.4
11.0
18.9
-11.6
13.1
10.0
20.8
-7.4
3.9
2.2
2,3
1.2
9.9
4.5
-8.2
-13.7
17.4
8.1
-18.7
18.8
9.4
-2.7
4.8
-22.9
-7.9
9.1
-19.9
-1.7
-19.0
17.e
-3.3
4.4
11.2
3.8
-4.4
15.4
9. 2
0.0
-14!4
-5.4
10.2
8.0
16.3
3.2
-18.3
17.9
5.4
3.0
9.8
3.5
0.0
-2! 6
-7.9
9.9
1.2
10.7
12.2
-1-5.4
15.8
9.3
-1.1
14.5
-11.7
13,2
-5.9
16.4
-0.5
10! 2
-1.0
6.1
5.1
5.5
3.0
-3.4
20.8
-13.0
12.1
-4.5
0.0
12.1
-3.3
12.4
2.2
4.2
7.1
-8.9
15.9
7.5
s!4
9.3
41.5
-10.6
-6.1
-10.9
18.3
-3.9
9.3
5.6
7.1
9.9
3.5
7.1
9.8
2.6
2.3
9.6
-4.8
8.0
2.9
5.3
9.1
; i.a
-11.9
39.9
-4.1
-8.0
8.9
-5.4
1.2
11.6
4.2
-6.1
-7.5
-10.3
32.7
2.1
-2.0
-1.2
-3.3
-3.3
46.0
-1.4
7.7
-5.4
-1.4
-2.5
3.7
4.8
1.3
1.6
-4. 7
23.1
1.2
12.0
-3.5
>.2
5.7
l.l
-12.4
36.0
2.8
0.0
4.4
-7.1
12.0
1.3
22.0
12.4
3.7
16.4
9 2 0 C . CHJlMGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICJ TORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1949...
19S0...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966.
1967!!!
1968.
1969*. ! .
1970...
1971,
1972*.!!
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
19S1...
1982...
1983...
47.6
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
3.2
10.8
12.9
-4.3
Annual
45.7
56.0
57.6
62.5
63.1
59.4
67.4
69.6
67.7
64.6
67.6
69.1
71.0
9 2 0 C . CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDIC \TORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1949...
1950...
IV Q
47.8
55.8
57.3
61.6
63.4
59.0
66.7
68.9
68.4
64.2
67.9
69.3
70.2
74. 2
77.4
83.1
90.2
97.7
100.4
107.1
112.6
109.0
110.1
119.9
128.7
126.5
118.1
125,6
135.8
146.1
150.4
57.9
58.4
64.7
58.9
65.6
68.4
69.1
62.1
70.8
70,4
69.3
74. 0
III Q
17.1
56.5
57.6
59.9
54.1
58.7
56.2
58.2
S9.1
53.6
S8.1
59.7
70.1
74.2
76.9
32. 5
<*9.6
97.6
DO. 3
D6.8
12.5
D9.3
39.3
L9.3
27.8
27.3
L7.3
25.5
34.6
15,9
50.6
46.6
54.7
57.3
57.3
64.9
58.7
66,2
65.9
69.1
63.1
70.2
70.0
69.4
47.2
52.7
II Q
6.0
11.6
9.3
-5.8
-16.4
12.8
-11.5
36.2
0,3
-3.3
1.1
1.2
6,3
2.6
1.4
4.5
4.3
9.2
9.5
9.1
2.1
11.0
-6.6
-15,6
2.3
3.0
0.5
-4.8
-4.3
15.5
4.2
-1.9
27.2
-1.1
24.3
-7.9
1.4
6.9
-3.6
13.6
-14.3
-5.9
2.3
1.8
6.8
6.8
-0.8
3.9
5.5
2.1
-5.8
21.2
13.9
-15.6
15.3
8.2
10.2
-3.4
0. 9
11.4
2.6
-5.8
-16.2
14.7
16.0
-10.7
10.1
1.4
u.o
11.8
3.3
6.9
7.1
5.5
7.5
-0.6
3.8
9.8
-3.2
-9.3
-13.8
-2.8
1.8
2.6
7.0
-3.8
7.1
4.4
1.6
6.5
7.7
8.6
0.8
-2.2
-3.4
-5.3
9.3
(JANUARY 1984)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Apr.
Mar.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
930. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS
(1967=100)
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958.
..
1959...
1960...
1961.. .
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967.,.
1968...
1969...
1970....
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
40.0
39.3
42.8
50.2
53.3
57.9
52.6
60.0
67.0
71.8
64.1
74.9
76.7
73.8
77.9
81.9
87.0
92.4
99.3
99.8
104.9
114.8
109.1
104.4
106.2
114.6
121.0
104.3
103.8
111.4
119.2
126.2
121.7
126.1
40.2
39.0
43.7
50.3
53.8
57.3
52.7
60.2
66.6
69.3
64.0
76.2
76.6
73.5
40.0
38.6
44.5
50.8
54.1
56.3
53.0
61.2
67.0
69.2
64.3
77.0
75.8
73.9
40.0
38.8
45.1
50.6
55.2
55.3
52.6
62.5
67.8
67.8
64.3
77.3
75.0
74.5
40.2
38.9
45.6
51.3
56.5
54.9
53.2
63.9
68.1
64.6
66.1
78.6
74.5
74.8
39.7
38.8
46.5
52.2
56.8
54.3
53.9
64.4
68.1
63.3
68.3
79.4
73.7
75.6
82.9
87.7
93.3
99.6
100.4
105.6
114.8
108.8
104.2
107.3
114.4
119.0
103.8
104.3
111.6
119.7
127.1
120.7
125.3
83.4
88.2
93.6
100.3
100.3
105.9
115.1
108.3
104.4
107.6
113.6
118.6
103.3
104.2
112. 3
118.8
130.2
119.0
125.1
83.8
88.9
94.6
100.2
101.1
107.0
113.7
107.2
104.7
109.4
115.6
115.2
102.8
104.7
111.6
121.7
132.3
119.0
125.9
83.5
89.a
95.6
100.2
101.5
108.0
113.6
107.3
105.1
109.6
116.7
112.8
103.4
105.2
112.8
121.0
129.6
122.2
125.1
84.3
89.9
96.4
100.4
101.8
109.2
114.0
105.2
105.9
110.7
117.1
108.6
102.9
106.3
113.7
122.3
125.5
122.4
124.8
39.7
38.5
47.0
52.3
56.9
54.1
54.2
66.1
68.4
62.6
69.4
79.2
73.3
75.9
79.5
83.8
89.7
97.0
100.5
101.5
109.3
113.5
106.0
105.4
112.0
117.1
108.0
103.2
106.2
114.3
122.3
121.8
122.5
124.3
39.2
38.7
47.1
51.9
57.3
53.5
56.5
64.9
71.0
61.9
71.4
78.4
73.1
76.2
80.0
85.0
90.7
97.5
99.8
102.2
109.9
114.1
107.0
105.0
112.0
117.2
106.9
103.2
107.2
114.8
123.0
120.5
123.3
122.3
12.8
-3.0
25.4
21.3
7.0
-11.6
-6.6
12.R
11.4
-20.7
-10.6
-4.7
-7.5
14.0
-1.5
-7.0
13.3
6.2
-8.8
28.4
2.4
11.9
-ll! 8
2.3
4. 1
-6.9
-34.6
-1.9
22.9
-1.6
-4.8
3.1
IS.7
10.1
-5.8
-11.6
24.3
12.6
41.4
47.8
51.7
58.1
53.0
58.2
66.0
71.8
64.0
76.3
75.8
73.1
77.1
80. 7
86.6
91.2
97.7
100.1
102.6
111.1
113.5
106.4
105.1
113.3
118.7
106.0
104.2
108.3
115.3
125.8
119.0
125.0
120.2
42.5
48.3
52.3
58.3
53.0
59.4
66.6
72.6
63.8
76.4
76.4
72.6
77.5
82.1
85.7
91.9
99.0
99.6
103.2
111.3
112.8
106.0
105.1
113.6
119.7
104.7
103.8
109.0
117.1
126. 3
120.1
124.5
118.2
42.0
49.4
53.0
58.5
52.9
59.4
66.4
73.2
64.7
75.2
77.2
73.0
78.0
82. 4
86.1
92.3
99.3
99.6
104.3
111.8
111.0
105.9
104.8
114.5
121.1
104.6
103.7
109.4
118.0
126.1
123.0
124.4
116.7
39.0
43.7
50.4
53.7
57.2
52.8
60.5
66.9
70. L
64. L
76. ()
76.«1
73.' 7
78. L
82. 7
87. (3
93.]L
99." 7
100.2
105.5
114.9
108.7
104.3
107.0
114.2
119.5
103.8
104.1
111.8
119.2
127.8
120.5
125.5
-13.9
-3.0
26.4
23.2
6.6
-12,4
17.0
9.8
0.0
-21.6
48.1
12.9
-12.2
-8.9
13.7
2.3
6.4
2.6
-8.8
53.2
5.2
0.0
46.6
13.4
-4.5
37.0
13.3
14.9
-13.2
31.0
17.3
-19*0
7. 0
21.9
7. 5
-1.7
5.8
13.4
-11.8
6.2
3.1
14.1
17.9
32.2
-8.3
14.6
30.5
5.4
-44.0
39.3
22.2
-7.7
-4.3
6.9
36.7
5.4
-12.5
21.1
-3.0
-6.3
-12,5
64.7
-19.7
56.5
-12.6
40.6
-11.5
-3.2
-6.5
8.8
20.1
24.3
35.8
83.4
-33.3
5.0
-4.4
31.1
1.8
-8.0
9.9
21.0
0.0
-4.8
0.0
27.8
11.5
14.2
-3.7
1.6
9.9
-7.9
-2.2
0.0
-3.5
10.4
18.3
-17.3
13.3
6.8
3.1
7.5
7. 1
0.0
5.9
10.0
-4.2
12.8
12.1
1.3
-6.9
-2.6
18.6
14.2
13.5
-2.6
6.1
10:2
9.7
22.9
-11.8
9.6
4.5
5.7
5.3
0.0
-7.8
26.0
12.1
8.6
-14.1
0.9
12.9
4.0
-19.0
-2.2
10.5
-7.0
2.2
19.3
12.2
22.0
-13.4
7.6
23.0
6.9
-29.1
29.1
13.3
-10.6
1.6
5.4
10.2
5.8
4.2
3.7
4.6
8.0
12.5
0.4
3.7
8.8
-1.2
0.0
2.4
1.2
-8.0
6.2
-2.4
-5.8
7.1
37.4
-18.7
-15.7
17.3
1.1
-1.0
-3.4
1.2
24.3
8.3
3.5
11.8
14.2
1.1
6.fi
5.6
7.9
2.2
5.5
-3.3
-2.3
13.2
-2.1
-18.1
-5.6
5.9
-5.4
2.3
3.4
-8.1
-4.0
-5.6
-1.1
13.2
-13.7
-11.5
3.5
22.0
23.3
-29.5
-5.7
5.9
1.1
4.7
2.2
12.0
-22.3
7.2
5.9
-21.1
9.5
12.7
4.2
-36.6
-5.7
13.3
9.5
-5.5
15.0
0.0
-6.4
3.6
-1.1
11.9
-4.5
0.0
1.0
-11.6
0.0
11.9
-1.1
-1.1
13.6
15.3
-10.7
8.5
5.7
-5.5
2.3
1.1
1.0
1.1
3.5
6.9
-4.4
0.0
3.2
10.6
-13.8
-4.5
8.0
-1.1
-3.4
9.9
15.0
-1.1
-1.1
4.5
6.3
13.5
-9.1
-5.2
11.3
-3.0
-7.7
-4.9
2.0
13.1
—3.5
-10*5
S.9
12.3
13.2
-29.5
-1.4
8.4
21.2
0.0
7.9
-9.0
-21.9
37.5
-7. 4
-23.5
-32.0
2.0
-2.8
-11.3
-30.2
1.0
-4.7
2.2
-12.1
8.1
-17.7
7.9
-10.4
14.5
-8.5
-6.3
-3.9
2.9
-11.2
-4.3
11.7
-4.7
-18.2
1.1
33.2
-1.0
-14.2
10.3
14.5
-12.4
2.8
-7.5
-10.9
13,2
-0.8
-14.6
8.9
-9.4
-7.4
1.0
3
-1
-1
3
5
1
3
.
.
.
.
5
7
9
6
4.1
-2.0
11.8
17.6
12.0
-6.7
-2.2
5.5
0.0
-17.0
1.3
-1.0
1.1
5.1
3.1
4.0
9. 7
6.2
3.3
9.6
13.2
-13.4
-6.6
8.6
2.8
-2.3
-3.4
1.9
9.9
9.2
2.6
2.0
2.6
-7.9
39.2
39.1
47.1
52. 0
57.4
53.6
55.9
65.6
70.6
62.7
72.0
77.8
73.3
76.2
79.9
84.9
90.3
97. 3
100.2
102.1
109.9
113.7
106.6
105.1
112.4
117.6
106.9
103.4
107.0
114.8
123.3
120.6
123.5
122.7
39.4
42.0
48.5
52.3
58.3
53.0
59,0
66. 3
72. 5
64.2
76.0
76. 5
72.9
77.5
81. 7
86.1
91.8
98. 7
99.8
103.4
111.4
112.4
106.1
105.0
113.8
119.8
105.1
103.9
108.9
116.8
126.1
120.7
124.6
118.4
-8.6
16.9
7.2
-2.2
8.1
-7.8
26.6
12.4
28.7
3.6
48.4
-15.9
-1.5
8.0
23.5
19.2
9.2
4. 2
-2.2
19.6
3.3
5.5
8.2
1.8
7.7
-2,0
6.8
11.2
1.4
8.2
7. 8
-2.7
7. 3
5.2
—8. 6
-3 *7
-0.4
4.7
8.9
-4.6
-0.7
6.5
a.4
3.0
4. 7
-0.2
2.9
4.5
—1. 2
6*8
-3.7
9.5
5.4
-9.6
4.0
5.5
-17.6
7.9
-10.3
1.3
13.7
-0.9
-14.5
2.4
-3.0
2.1
19.2
11.5
21.5
-13.5
7.0
-3.0
-3.1
17,9
14.1
12.9
-8.4
12.7
-9.6
-2.0
13.8
4.8
-8.8
14.1
7.1
-2.3
0.0
33.7
7.0
-4.5
0.0
45.4
10.6
3.1
6.3
20.3
19.0
8.8
-4.0
14.2
21.6
13.0
2.7
-5.0
20.4
10.9
-2.0
-0.7
18.6
11.3
-6.1
15.3
9.3
-0.7
0.8
26.6
17.1
8.3
-14.2
0.8
0.0
-1.0
18.6
8.2
21.6
-15.7
3.8
-9.8
27.2
-7.9
24.2
-7.9
33.0
-3.7
22.2
-2.2
18.8
-3.0
13.0
3.7
-20.1
-2.5
J.9
--!. 1
.0
.5
1.9
). 1
1.8
t.l
4.9
-20.5
1. 3
13.4
-8.6
3.8
2.1
9.6
9. 0
9.9
3.7
9.3
-24.5
13.8
13.2
-10.5
7.3
6.7
-30.0
27.3
13.1
-10.6
9.5
3.6
-27.3
35.7
10.2
-8.8
7.7
18.2
-15.7
36.1
-1.0
-7.3
7.7
27.0
1.3
46.2
-16.9
-1.6
5.4
21.4
9.3
46.1
-16.1
-1.1
6.5
9.3
12.9
31.1
-9.8
-2.7
7.0
10.9
5.1
7.8
0.5
7.6
-2.2
7.5
10.9
0.0
0.6
-7.1
4.8
3.9
4.2
6.1
-12.6
-0.5
12.0
2.9
-19.2
0.0
7.4
-4.9
4.6
2.2
-12.5
7.8
24.9
6.5
-27.3
25.6
12.2
-10.0
8.2
4.0
-3.0
18.0
6.7
2.9
4.4
0.0
7.4
7.8
14.1
-8.5
28.1
5.1
22,2
-1.7
42.8
-11.3
-3.3
6,5
6.9
9.8
10.2
2.4
12.5
0.4
10.5
1.2
-1.6
-0.4
-1.6
-0.8
-2.8
6. 3
12.3
-9.4
-5.5
11.1
-3.1
-8.0
-4.9
1.9
11.0
2.7
13.7
-12.4
2.6
-7.7
8. 3
-3.8
-6.8
1.2
12.6
3.5
-17. B
-5.6
3.5
0.7
8.7
20.8
-8.6
-0.6
-7.4
9.4
-4.1
-5.4
3.5
8.9
8.3
-19.3
-1.5
3.5
4.4
4.4
8.1
13.1
-3.8
-11.0
5.9
12.0
12.9
-29.7
-1.5
8.3
5.1
12.3
-13.7
11.9
-1.0
-14.8
8.9
-0.7
7.2
l.S
4.5
-1.4
6.8
0,0
5.2
-4.5
5.2
-8.8
-1.2
9.3
14.0
-14.6
3.4
3.8
8.1
7.2
1.3
4.1
10.5
-2.9
-1.2
3. 3
6.2
0.1
2.7
-0.4
-3.7
-1.1
0.4
-0.4
4.3
5^3
-22.8
1.6
5.9
10.0
2.0
-28.2
12.3
-5.0
-11.5
1.7
-19.3
-0.8
7.8
7.3
6.8
-25.3
3.6
-8.7
-0.7
5.2
-9.6
3.9
5.4
6.1
8.1
-13.1
7.7
-10.5
1.1
5.6
-7.2
3.9
8.1
3.5
11.9
-8.9
8.4
-12.6
-1.1
8.8
-8.0
2.3
6.9
8.3
11.2
-1.3
4.0
-12.8
-3.2
8.7
-4.8
-0.8
6.5
9.3
4.6
12.6
-1.0
-14.6
2.2
8.0
-6. 3
-1.5
12.0
14.2
1.3
9.4
3.6
-14.2
-3.6
10.8
1.1
-9.4
-4.6
2.4
7.2
6.9
12.4
-6.3
1.5
-7.7
4.0
10.3
B.8
-23.9
-0.5
5.9
6.5
6.2
-11.3
9.8
-2.2
-14.0
-1.7
7.7
4.2
-12.0
2.3
7,1
5.6
8.9
-17.4
6.6
-10.6
-0.2
5.1
-0.6
-15.6
Annual
39.7
39. 7
46. 3
51.5
56.4
54.6
55.2
64.0
69.5
65.5
69.6
77.2
74. 2
75.6
79.6
84.4
89.8
96. 2
100.0
101.8
108.7
113.7
107.0
104.9
110.8
117.0
110.9
103. 5
106.4
114.0
122.6
124.6
122.4
123.0
0.3
8.7
17.9
7.8
10. 7
-9.4
13. 7
12.9
11.3
-9.1
19.3
3.9
-5.3
6,9
5.8
4.9
7.4
7. 7
0.4
4.8
7.3
0.0
-4.1
-0.8
9.5
6.1
-12.8
-0.7
S.6
8.2
7.4
-0.1
1.9
-5.7
-4.6
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
0.0
-5.0
23.3
3.2
15.0
-16.8
0.0
4.1
-7.9
26.0
11.8
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are centered
within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the Zd month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and
annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
0.0
6.4
17.4
-4.6
27. 3
-19*4
-8.7
28.7
15.3
-21.8
0.0
4.8
-12.0
930C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUND A N N U A L RATE,
PERCENT)
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962..'.
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
38.8
45.7
51.4
56.2
54.8
53.2
63.6
68.0
65.2
66.2
78.4
74.4
75.0
78.6
83.9
89.5
95.5
100.3
101.5
108.1
113.8
106.6
105.2
109.9
116.5
112.2
103.0
105.4
112.7
121.7
129.1
121.2
125.3
0.0
1.0
-12.0
17.7
-9.8
III Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
38.8
40.1
47.3
51.9
57.9
53.2
56.9
65.9
72.3
63.5
75.1
75.8
73.4
76.6
80.3
85.9
90.5
97.5
100.3
102.5
110.4
113.6
106.9
104.9
113.2
118.6
105.9
103.9
107.7
115.4
124.7
119.4
124.7
121.4
930C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953,
1954!..
1955.
..
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961,..
1962.. .
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967.*.*.*
1968.
1969*!.
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
ll Q
4.a
7.1
8.2
0.9
-0.3
6.2
9.3
2.0
6. 3
6.9
-1.6
6.8
8.1
-9,3
1.4
5,1
8.5
-6.4
0.0
8.5
10.6
5.7
6.9
2,2
-13.9
-1.2
9.1
16.3
7.4
10. 3
-9.1
13.4
12.2
9.1
-10.3
19.2
2.3
-4.6
6.4
5.6
5.1
6. 9
7.6
0.5
4.5
8.2
-1.2
—4. 8
0.0
8.4
5.6
-12,9
-0.7
6.0
7.5
6.9
-2.4
3.0
-6.3
(JANUARY 1984)
103
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
(Nov.)
P
(Nov.)
T
Year
and
quarter
Implicit price
deflator gross
nonfarm business
product1
(Index: 1977=100)
(Jan.) (July) (July)
P T
P
(Nov.)
T
Ml 111111111111 j f 11 j 1111111111111111111 m\ 111IIIJI j I I I 1 Ratioscale
Unit labor cost,
all persons, nonfarm
business sector1
160
150
140
130
120
110
Components of BCD series 26—
(Index: 1977=100)
I 111 I I I
1981
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...
(Mar.)
T
136.2
138.4
141.8
145.0
139.i!
141. (i
143. ii
147. i
146.4
148.3
149.1
150.5
151.3
153.8
155.4
157.1
Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm
business product Q
(index: 1977 = 100)
170
160
150
140
130
120
1982
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...
Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm
business sector, Q
(index: 1977 = 100)
I
1983
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...
110
100
158,. 3
rl57.2
rl57.8
pl59.2
152.4
rl53.4
rl54.7
P155.9
90
80
-1
70
Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)Arithmetic
scale
Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars2
Year
and
Manufacturing
month
(Ratio)
Merchant
wholesalers
(Ratio)
Retail tradi
2.2
(Ratio)
2.1
1982
Jan..
Feb.,
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
2.11
2.06
2.05
2.07
2.03
2.02
1.49
1.45
1.43
1.50
1.45
1.50
1.45
1.40
1.42
1.42
1.38
1.43
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
2.03
2.05
2.05
2.12
2.09
2.06
1.52
1.51
1.55
1.56
1.54
1.55
1.42
1.43
1.43
1.43
1.38
1.39
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1983
Jan,.
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
1.97
1.97
1.91
1.89
1.85
1.79
1.47
1.51
1.50
1.52
1.41
1.37
1.35
1.33
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
1.82
1.79
1.78
rl.79
pi.75
(NA)
1.39
1.40
1.39
1.39
pi.39
(NA)
1.33
1.36
1.36
1.35
pi. 34
(NA)
1.38
1.41
1.38
1.3
1.6
1.38
1.5
1.4
1.3
1970
1
1971
1972
NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and "NA! , not available.
'Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s .
2
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
104
1973 1974
1975
1976
1977 1978
1979 1980
1981 1982 1983
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance1 (thousands)
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) .
32. Vendor performance, companies receiving
slower deliveries (percent)
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) . . . - . , .
29. New building permits, private housing
units (index: 1967=100)
36. Change in inventories2 on hand and on order in
1972 dol., smoothed (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed2 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars
(billion dollars)
111. Change in credit—business and consumer
borrowing (annual rate, percent)
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thousands)
51. Personal income less transfers in 1972
dollars (annual rate, billion dollars).
47. Industrial production, total
(index: 1967=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972
dollars (million dollars)
920. Composite index
of 4 roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967-100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales,
manufacturing and trade (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturingactual data as a percent of trend (percent)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1972 dollars (million dollars)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income (percent)
Composite index of 6 lagging indicators3
930.
(index: 1967=100)
Sept.
1983
Oct.
1983
Net contribution to index
Nov.
1983
Sept.
to
Oct.
1983
Dec.
1983
Oct.
to
Nov.
1983
Nov.
to
Dec.
1983
40.8
40.6
r40.6
p40. 5
-0.15
0.00
-0.08
38 7
398
402
380
-0.08
-0.03
0.17
35.27
35.64
r36.5O
p35.95
0.05
0.12
-0.08
60
64
59
67
0.16
-0. 20
0.35
115.8
rll7.9
rll7.0
pllS.l
0.25
-0.11
-0.25
rl5.48
rl5.25
rl3.97
pl3.93
-0.03
-0.19
-0.01
121.6
131.7
132.6
125.1.
0.24
0.02
-0.19
rl6.99
r21.34
p20.33
NA
0.24
-0.06
rO.92
0. 72
rO. 72
0.72
-0.08
0.00
0.00
167.16
167.65
165.23
164.36
0.02
-0.09
-0.04
891.9
r894.8
r897.5
p899.3
0.10
0,10
0.07
1.2
7.8
10.6
pl9.2
0.34
0.15
0.49
160.2
rl62.2
r!61.9
pl62.9
1.25
-0.18
0.62
90,851
r91,O87
r91,413
p91,644
0.22
0.30
0.27
1,103.2
rl,116.6
rl,121.6
pi,127.7
0.60
0.22
0.35
rl53.8
rl55.0
rl56.1
pl56.9
0.22
0.20
0.18
164,474
rl64,899
pl67,513
0.06
0.35
NA
143.0
144.3
145.6
p!46.5
0.91
0.90
0.62
20. 2
20.1
20.2
19.6
0.04
-0.04
0.32
1.58
1.57
pi.55
NA
-0.13
-0. 26
NA
89.5
88.8
r88.5
pR7.9
-0.26
-0.11
-0.32
11.00
11.00
11.00
11.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
101,950
rlOl,556
rlO2,441
plO4,518
-0.10
0.23
0.78
13.13
rl3.16
pl3.23
NA
0.12
0.27
NA
rllO.2
rlO9.8
r!09.9
pllO.8
-0.36
0.09
NA
NA
0.82
NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t
is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
(pp. 108-109) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
l
This
2
This
3
series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment
factor for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.
105
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of
the current business cycle. To set the current movements in historical
perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods also
are shown. The selected periods are superimposed to compare the
current business ;ycle with corresponding historical patterns and to
facilitate critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and severity of
the indicators1 cu rent movements.
1. For most indicators, two cyclical comparison charts are shown.
In the left panel, comparisons are based on reference peak levels and
reference trough dates; in the right panel, comparisons are based on
both the levels and the dates of the specific troughs in each indicator.
(See the charts on the following pages.)
The three-part code indicates the timing
classification of the series at peaks, at troughs,
and at all turns: L=leading; C=roughly coincident; Lg=lagging; and U=unclassified.
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 111 I I I I
This number indicates the latest month (or
quarter) of data plotted. (1=January)
I I I I I I I I I
Series number, series title
2. The verticil line represents trough dates: reference trough
dates in the left panel and specific trough dates in the right panel. The
current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so
that their reference trough dates (left panel) and specific trough dates
(right paneO are 01 this vertical line.
• 135
-1+5
3. The horizontal line represents the level of data at reference cycle peaks (left paiel) and specific cycle troughs (right panel). The
current cycle and the corresponding historical periods are positioned so
that their reference peak levels (left paneQ and specific trough, levels
(right panel) are on this horizontal line.
•130
• 125
4. For most s< ries, deviations (percent or actual differences) from
the reference peak itnd specific trough levels are computed and plotted.
For series measured in percent units (e.g., the unemployment rate),
these units (actual data) are plotted rather than deviations. The deviations (if plotted) an i actual data for the current cycle are shown in the
tables accompanying the charts.
^c
•120
5. For series that move counter to movements in general business
activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used; i.e.,
declines in data art plotted as upward movements, and increases in
data are plotted as downward movements.
-10
6. Several curves are shown in each chart. The heavy solid line
( • » ) describes thti current cycle, The dotted line ( • • • ) represents
the median pattern of the seven post-World War II cycles. The other
lines represent selected business cycles, in the left panel, each line is
labeled according to the year of the reference trough; in the right panel,
each line is labeled according to the date of the specific trough.
7. These charts use the business cycle (reference) peak and trough
dates designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Peaks: Nov. 1948 (IVQ 194$, July 1953 (IIQ 195$, Aug. 1957
(IIIQ 1957), Apr. 19''.0 (IIQ 1960), Dec. 1969 (IVQ 1969), Nov. 1973
(IVQ 1973), Jan. 1981) (IQ 1980), July 1981 (IIIQ 1981).
•110
-15
I II1III IIIIIIIIIIIM I1IIIII11II1I I
0
+6
+12
+18
-12
Months from troughs
Troughs: Oct. 1!»49 (IVQ 1949), May 1954 (IIQ 1954), Apr. 1958
(IIQ 1959, Feb. 1961 (IQ 1961), Nov. 1970 (IVQ 1970), Mar. 1975 (IQ
1975), July 1980 (UK! 1980), November 1982 (IVQ 1982).
This scale measures time in months before ( - )
and after ( + ) reference trough dates (left
panel) and specific trough dates (right panel).
106
This scale shows deviations (percent or actual
differences) from reference peak levels (left
pane!) and specific trough levels (right panel).
This scale shows actual series units and applies
only to the current business cycle (heavy solid
line).
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
|
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
Actual
data
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA
YEAR
SERIES
43
PERCENT
+4
+5
1
2
3
4
10.7
10.4
10.4
10.3
12/82
1/83
2/83
3/83
5
6
7
8
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.5
4/83
5/83
6/83
7/83
9
10
11
12
9.5
9.2
8.8
8.4
8/83
9/83
10/83
11/83
13
8.2
12/83
1 I I I I I I I I I I I M 1 I I I I I I I I II I II I I I 1 II 1DeviActual
ations
data
from
for
specific current
troughs cycle
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
Actual
-4
• 7
-3
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
YEAR
TROUGH
DATA
12/82
+7
+ 8
+9
0
SERIES
43
PERCENT
0. T
10.7
1
2
3
4
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
10.4
10.4
10.3
10.2
1/83
2/83
3/83
4/83
5
6
7
8
-0.6
-0.7
-1.2
-1.2
10.1
10.0
9.5
9.5
5/83
6/83
7/83
8/83
9
10
11
12
-1.5
-1.9
-2.3
-2.5
9.2
8.8
8.4
8.2
9/83
10/83
11/83
12/83
•
8
•
9
•
10
•
165
•
160
•
150
-2
12/82
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
FROM
ACTUAL
REF.
TROUGH
7/81
DATA YEAR
47. Industrial production index
Porcont
+15
•
175
•
170
+ 10
+5
-5
•
165
•
160
•
155
•
150
•
145
•
140
-10
-15
•12
-6
0
+6
+12 +18
•
135
•
130
SERIES > 47
19fa7=100
135.2
137.4
138.1
140.0
-12.2
-10.7
-10.3
-9.0
5
6
7
8
-7.3
-6.2
-4.9
-2.7
142.6
144.4
146.4
149.7
4/83
5/83
6/83
7/83
9
10
11
12
-1.4
-0.1
0.7
1.4
151.8
153.8
155.0
156.1
8/83
9/83
10/83
11/83
13
1.9
156.9
12/83
Percent
+ 25
+ 20
+ 15
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
SPEC.
FROM
DATA
YEAR
TROUGH
11/82
SERIES
47
1967=100
+ 10
1.9
2,4
3.8
137.4
138.1
140.0
1/83
2/83
3/83
7
8
5.7
7.0
8.5
11.0
142.6
144.4
146.4
149.7
4/83
5/83
6/83
7/83
9
10
11
12
12.5
14.0
14.9
15.7
151.8
153.8
155.0
156.1
8/83
9/83
10/83
11/83
13
16.3
156.9
12/83
Months from reference troughs
NOTE:
47. Industrial production index
12/82
1/83
2/83
3/83
1
2
3
4
• 145
+5
• 140
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+ 18
Months from specific troughs
For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of this issue.
107
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Cotntinued
|MMI|lim|IIMI|MlTTJTTTTTJl
CURRENT QRTR.
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
30. Change in business inventories,
1972 dollars
2
1
"I11"1!
|"-"|«»»|
|30. Change in business inventories,
1972 dollars
SERIES 30
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
-3.4 11/82
-1.3 111/82
-22.7
Deviations
from
specific
troughs
S
TR<
Actual
IV/82
• 15
DEVIS.
OM A T I O N S CURRENT QRTR.
ACTUAL
AND
FROM
C.
DATA
YEAR
GH
IV/82
+35
SERIES 30
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
-3.4 11/82
19.3
-1.3 111/82
21.4
+ 30
0. T -22.7
7.3
17.3
26.5
30.2
for
current
cycle
|UL
-15.4 1/83
-5.4 11/83
3.8 111/83
7. 5 IV/83
QR'
Actual
data
• 10
• 5
+25
IV/82
• 0
-15.4 1/83
-5.4 11/83
3.8 111/83
7,5 IV/83
+20
) -5
+ 15
• -10
+10
-15
+5
• -20
-5
50. GNP in 1972 dollars
QR
clc
T;R
in 1972 dollars
IS.
DEVI*OM A T I O N S CURRENT QRTR.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
3P.
JGH 111/81
DATA
YEAR
ISERIES 50
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
-2.4 1489.3 11/82
-2.6 1485.7 111/82
-3.0
1480.7
•-2.3
--0.0
1.8
2.9
1490.1 1/83
1525.1 11/83
1553.4 III/S3
1570.5 IV/83
+15
IV/82
• 1675
Ql
£
TF
Median
I
s.
DEVIOM A T I O N S CURRENT QRTR.
!C •
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
GH
IV/82
DATA
YEAR
• 1475
• 1425
-12
-6
0
+ 6 +12
0. T1480.7
0.6
3.0
4.9
6.1
NOTE:
108
IV/82
1553.4 111/83
1570.5
IV/83
+18
For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts11 on p. 406 of this Issue.
• 1525
1490.1 1/83
1525.1 11/83
Months from reference troughs
• 1625
• 1575
SERIES 50
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
0.6 1489.3 11/82
0.3 1485.7 111/82
-J -5
+10
• 1475
111111111111
-12
-6
11111111111111111111111
0
+ 6 +12
Months from specific troughs
+18
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
111111111 ] 11111111 f 1111111 r i 111M11
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted)
Deviations
from
reference
peaks
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
Percent
• 400
+10
«45O
+ 20
+ 30
• 500
5
6
7
0
9
10
11
12
13
+ 40
+50
• 550
• 600
+70
+100
• 700
• 750
• 800
+ 110
29. New building permits, private
housing units
Percent
+10.0
19.0
14.7.
• 150
4/83
5/83
6/83
7/83
0.8
1.8
408.
387.
398.
402.
8/83
9/83
10/83
11/83
-3.8
380.
12/83
2.8
-3.8
3.3
-2.0
2
3
4
-5.7
-18.7
-22.4
616.
531,
507.
11/82
12/82
1/83
5
6
7
8
-26.8
-26.6
-28.0
-30.6
478.
479.
470.
453.
2/83
3/83
4/83
5/83
9
10
11
12
-37.8
-41.8
-37.5
-40.7
406.
380. .
408.
387.
6/83
7/83
8/83
9/83
13
14
15
-39.1
-38.4
-41.8
398.
402.
380.
41.9
• 135
64.4
• 120
5
6
7
8
76.7
• 105
9
10
11
12
13
+25
• 90
0
+6
+12
+18
•
325
• 425
• 575
•625
29. New building permits, private
housing units
Percent
54.8
58.3
S7.0
+ 160
+ 140
+ 120
124.1
132.1
142.2
143.9
4/83
5/83
6/83
7/83
8/83
9/83
10/83
11/83
+100
74.4
75.6
133.4
121.6
131.7
132.6
65.7
125.1
12/83
+ 80
75.0
88.3
90.6
61.1
• 150
29
967=100
107.1 12/82
116.9
1/83
119.5
2/83
118.5
3/83
• 60
17
18
19
20
• 45
21
22
23
24
143
126
106
123
.9
.1
.1
.2
143.
133.
121.
131.
9
4
6
7
7/33
8/83
9/83
10/83
25
26
124 .7
112 .0
132.
125.
6
1
11/83
12/83
• 140
•130
•120
• 110
•
100
+60
• 90
+40
•
80
+ 20
-12
-6
0
+ 6 +12
+18
Months from specific troughs
Months from reference troughs
For an explanation of these
Digitized forNOTE:
FRASER
10/83
11/83
12/83
SERIES 29
1967=100
81 .5
107. 1 12/82
98 .1
116. 9
1/83
102 .5
119. 5
2/83
3/83
118. 5
100 .8
110 .3
124. 1
4/83
1
123 .9
132.
5/83
141 .0
142. 2
6/83
-25
-6
-50
• 375
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
YEAR
DATA
TROUGH
10/81
14
15
16
-12
rVc»nt
-I
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
FROM
ACTUAL
REF.
DATA
YEAR
TROUGH
7/81
1
2
3
4
+50
-50
12/82
1/83
2/83
3/83
470.
453.
406.
380.
SERIES
+75
531.
507.
473.
479.
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
SERIES
5
THOUSANDS
• 650
+90
34.4
28.4
21.0
21.3
Deviations
from
specific
troughs
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
FROM ACTUAL
SPEC.
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
9/82
+60
+80
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted)
SERIES
5
'HOUSANDS
1
2
3
4
-10
0
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
PROM
REF.
ACTUAL
AND
7/81
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of this issue.
109
ALPHABETICAL INDEX -SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of .Series," following this index)
A
Accession rate, manufacturing
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditu 'es, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, 01
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl....,
New orders, manulactunng, 01
Prices, manufacturing, 01
Prices, retail trade Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl
.
Profits, manufacturing and trade, 0 1 .
.
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl. .
Automobiles
Imports of automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures
.
B
Balance of payments-See International transactions.
Bank loans—See But iness Loans.
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve
Bonds-See Interest rates.
Borrowing-See Credit.
Budget—See Government.
Building-See Const uction.
Building permits, nev/ private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditure, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, 01
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation, index
Business incorporations
Business inventories—See Inventories.
Business loans
Loans outstanding constant dollars
Loans outstanding current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving
,
C
Canada—See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
/Manufacturing (IIEA)
(^Manufacturing <1RB)
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, 01
,
Capital equipment, producer price index..,...,
Capital investment—See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporale, constant dollars
,
Cash flow, corpora! e, current dollars
Civilian labor force -See also Employment.
Employment
t
Employment as wrcent of population
Total labor
force
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite inden, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and in Jus trial buildings, contracts awarded
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans Outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—Ste also Income.
Compensation, image hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation cf employees, NIPA
Compensation cf employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
_
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real tverage hourly, production workers,
private nonfaim economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and sal; nes in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident initiators
Four coinckers, index
Four coinckers, rate of change
Ratio to lagjing indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers, index
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indica'ors
Capital investment commitments..
Inventory irvestment and purchasing
Marginal employment adjustments
Money and financial flows
See notes at end of index.
110
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Historical
date,
(issue date
Series
description
(*)
8/81
1/83
18
64
2
604
56
92
61
970
58
974
975
971
976
978
977
972
973
24
38
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
67
76
65
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
12/(13
12/113
1/84
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
34
34
31
48
48
48
48
49
48
48
48
616
55
56
22
92
65
1/83
8/83
64
50
93
94
33
33
72
72
29
76
61
970
14
12
13
13,25
24
24
38
33
67
67
67
76
72
65
65
101
72
112
295
'I! 3
32
46
6/83
6/83
45
45
35
24
34
34
44
32
32
73
73
72
82
43
43
37
83
82
84
20
20
20
64
64
64
25
25
25
97
11
965
333
24
24
37
48
66
66
75
86
33
33
33
914
35
34
11
29
29
60
70
70
15
37
37
51
17
89
62
51
89
20
20
20
20
442
90
441
37
18,51
62,89
920
920c
951
940
9
10
39
36
11
23
60
'74"
60
66
15
15
32
101
72
112
32
73
73
72
43
43
345
280
49
45
87
82
12/13
11/13
56
56
64
30,47
346
49
70,83
9/83
56
1.2/
56
340
49
87
9/(3
341
348
349
49
50
50
87
88
88
9/(3
12/13
12/13
53
19
63
8/13
920
920c
940
10
39
11
60
"60"
1/4
1/4
2/3
"is*
930
930c
10
39
60
1/4
15
914
915
913
917
11
11
60
60
2/13
2/13
2/13
2/13
11
15
15
62
62
15
1/14
15
15
15
15
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Profitability
Twelve leaders, index
Twelve leaders, rate of change
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
„
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial DuiiQinss * T*!***^*****!**!**^**)**********************
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales....
Gross private domestic fixed investment
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Residential, total, constant dollars
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits-See Profits.
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate..
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index
Debt-See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, output
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Oefense purchases, goods and services, NIPA
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components..
New orders, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components....
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade.
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing production workers.
Workweek, manufacturing production workers,
components
Disposable personal income—See income.
Current issue
Series ( W M . f f l t a » )
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
2/83
1/84
1/84
15
15
916
910
910c
11
10
39
60
60
29
13,25
67
6/83
9
23
24
66
67
12/83
9/83
32
28
248
87
86
249
89
28
334
8
75
47
25
25
47
25
25
48
83
67
67
83
67
67
86
64
65
11/83
8/83
8/83
11/83
8/83
6/83
4/83
6/83
12/82
51
51
51
51
51
35
60
26
24
73
72
73
72
4/83
4/83
11/83
11/83
43
43
43
45
84,95
3/83
3/83
1/84
59
59
31
12,21
22
66
113
95
39
35
32
15,35
320
322
58
49
49
22
33
84
65
525
53
90
4/83
64
20
12,23
66
9/83
32
10
116
23
34
66
73
9/83
8/83
32
46
110
32
101
72
112
15,35
35
32
35
32
12/83
73
73
72
7/83
7/83
7/83
4/83
4/83
11/83
11/83
7/83
12/83
'42
2/83
4/83
60
43
43
43
43
43
45
32
73
72
73
72
72
71
98
331
28
48
69
85
557
54
517
543
580
578
577
525
53
53
54
55
55
53
90
91
91
91
90
1/84
4/83
7/83
1/84
1/84
4/83
559
548
588
561
570
564
565
54
53
54
54
55
55
55
91
90
91
91
91
91
91
6/83
6/83
6/83
6/83
7/83
11/83
11/83
39
32
33
12,21
72
64
11/83
5/83
45
28
76
75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
12/83
12/83
•2/83
5/83
7/83
7/82
34
33
15
48'
15
24
5/83
5/83
2/83
2/83
6/83
48
15
15
26
66
113
95
39
111
33
15,35
33
13.32
970
965
951
974
963
966
38
37
36
38
36
37
962
975
952
950
964
36
36
37
971
960
972
967
38
37
38
37
973
976
978
977
968
961
38'
38
38
38
37
36
36'
7/82
5/83
12/83
5/83
6/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
6/83
7/83
64
'26'
U
48
36
'«'
48
49
48
36
15
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Earnings—See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee-hours in nonagncultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
I!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.,.
Employees in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 01
Employment in defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Employment, total civilian
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, manufacturing production workers..
Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployed, both sexes, 1619 years old
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment, total civilian
Workweek, manufacturing production workers
Workweek, manufacturing production workers,
components
Workweek, manufacturing production workers, Dl v...
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Exports—See International transactions.
Federal funds rate
Federal Government—See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food—See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France—See International comparisons.
Free reserves
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget, NIPA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment-See Investment, capital.
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment..
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Current issue
Series (page n u m b e r $ >
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
2
441
578
577
51
55
55
48c
48
39
17
40
974
41
963
' 570
90
442
46
60
5
962
3
913
21
453
452
451
448
42
4
446
445
447
444
91
44
45
43
37
1
17
38
14,17
36
55
17
51
16
16
12,16
36
62
76
62
74
91
62
89
61
61
61
74
16
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
15,18
18
18
18
18,51
12,16
61
89
89
89
89
62
89'
89
89
89
62
62
62
62
62,89
61
7/83
5/83
7/83
7/83
7/83
3/83
3/83
7/82
3/83
5/83
5/83
8/81
2/83
7/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
8/81
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
7/83
961
36
77
74
7/83
'si'
89
91
91
8/81
3/83
1/84
1/84
Series
description
(•)
18
20
10/83
10/83
15
48
15
15
20"
20
19
19
18
18
18
15
15
20
20
20
20
20
18
20
20
20
20
20
20
18
20
20
15
119
34
72
10/83
46
94
213
917
33
40
11
72
80
60
6/83
10/83
2/83
45
49
15
311
48
84
8/83
58
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Average weekly overtime
Average workweek
Average workweek, components
Average workweek Dl
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP
I
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with 1VA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Income on foreign investments in the United States
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Interest, net
Interest! net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
'
Personal income, less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
!
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production—See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
93
33
72
6/83
45
8/83
49
20
502
501
500
512
511
510
298
52
52
52
52
52
52
46
90
90
90
90
90
90
83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
11/83
62
62
62
62
62
62
58
263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260
43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43
81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81
11/83
11/83
11/83
11/83
11/83
11/83
11/83
11/83
11/83
11/83
53
53
53
53
'53
53
53
53
53
311
68
48
30
84
70
8/83
8/83
58
39
50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217
19,40
63,80
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
9/83
8/83
8/83
10/83
49
49
49
49
49
49
40
25
49
49
'39"
40
*3'i'
20
48
40
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
80
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
'...I
Total
Total, components
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Installment credit-See Credit
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1 r£3suf y DO no viciuS , , „ „ „ „
46
60
16
16
61
61
7/82
3/83
19
19
+»**,*»<»**,+,<*,,,+,1*4*4*,*,+,*,<,,»,*
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
.
Italy
japan
. United Kingdom'.!!!.!
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Cd
France!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Italy
japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
...
Historical
data
(issue date)
16
12,16
36
61
61
77
74
7/83
7/83
28
25
29 13,25
89
25
249 47
67
67
67
83
6/83
6/83
8/83
11/83
21
1
961
310
48
345
280
64
49
45
87
82
Series
description
C)
7/83
35
35
51
51
8/83
12/83
11/83
56
56
30,47
70,83
9/83
56
346
95
286
49
88
73
82
12/83
11/83
11/83
56
43
37
287
225
224
47
40
40
83
80
80
11/83
10/83
10/83
37
22
22
227
10/83
9/83
340
341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223
49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
9/83
8/83
8/83
H/83
11/83
10/83
8/83
8/83
15
65
65
57
57
55
22
22
51c
51
108
282
39
14,19
31
45
63
71
82
8/83
8/83
11/83
11/83
22
40
56
283
284
47
45
83
82
11/83
11/83
56
57
285
348
349
47
50
50
83
88
88
11/83
12/83
12/83
57
62
62
53
13
335
19
23
48
63
65
85
8/83
5/83
6/82
22
32
76
75
73
74
47
24
22
20
20
14,20,58
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/83
24
24
24
24
24
966
47c
37
39
67
65
63
63
63,94
78
75
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
6/83
6/83
36
36
962
45
288
289
12,16
36
18
45
47
61
74
62
82
83
5/83
5/83
3/83
11/83
11/83
18
18
18
57
57
67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332
35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48
73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
86
12/83
8/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
7/83
8/83
8/83
4/83
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
60
96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
3/83
4/82
68
68
69
69
68
59
68
94
58
723
94
58
726
94
58
727
94
58
728
94
58
721
94
58
722
47 14,20,58 63,94
725
58 94
1/83
1/83
1/83
11/83
1/83
1/83
12/83
1/83
66
66
66
66
66
66
24
66
733
736
737
738
732
320
735
7/82
12/83
See notes at end of index.
111
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Stiries," following this index)
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
....
..
Japan '
'
'
,
United Kingdom
United States
:
West Germany
International transaction
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports, merchandise total excluding military aid
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods ant services, constant dollars, N1PA
Exports of goods ant services, current dollars, NIPA
Exports of goods ant services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports, merchandisii, total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods ami services, constant dollars, NIPA
Imports of goods am services, current dollars, NIPA
Imports of goods ant; services, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Income on foreign investments in the United States
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Net exports of goods and services,
constant dollars, NIPA
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars, NIP\
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars, NIPA
Business inventories, change, current dollars, NIPA
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories on hand and on order, net change
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, book value
Manufacturing and tiade, change in book value
Manufacturing and tiade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, 01
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing, change
,
Investment, capital
Capital appropriation;, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriation», manufacturing, new....
Capital appropriation;, manufacturing, new, 01
Capital investment ctmmitments, Cl
Construction contract, commercial and industrial
Construction expend! :ures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales:
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventor! is, change—See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Nonresidential, coitstant dollars
Nonresidential, peicent of GNP
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential,
constant dollars
Residential, consent dollars
Residential, percert of GNP
Structures, nonresidential, constant dollars
Total, constant do lars
.
Total, current dolliirs
New orders, capital goods, nondefense,
constant dollars
New orders, capital gsods, nondefense,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Business expenditi res, new
,
Business expenditi res, new, Dl
Contracts and ordurs, constant dollars
Contracts and ordurs, current dollars
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investments in the United States
income on U.S. investments abroad
Italy—See International comparisons.
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
743
59
746
747
748
742
19
745
59
59
59
59
59
59
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
1/84
1/84
1/84
1/84
1/84
1/84
1/84
70
70
70
70
70
36
70
667
622
618
602
604
256
252
668
606
620
612
616
257
253
669
614
652
651
57
57
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
57
93
93
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
93
8/83
8/83
8/83
5/82
1/83
11/83
11/83
8/83
1/83
8/83
5/82
1/83
11/83
11/83
8/83
1/83
8/83
8/83
65
65
G5
64
$4
54
54
65
64
65
64
64
54
54
65
64
65
65
255
44
82
11/83
250
251
44
47
82
83
11/83
11/83
54
54
68,81
81
83
91
68
68
68
60
68
68
68
76
8/83
U/83
11/83
6/83
6/83
9/83
9/83
2/83
9/83
9/83
9/83
5/83
51
51
51
28"
28
28
15
28
28
28
48
30
26,42
245 42
247 47
559 54
65
27
36 13,26
77 15,27
915
11
71
27
31
26
70
27
975 38
78
27
68
6/83
38
26
68
6/83
97
11
965
914
9
24
24
37
11
23
66
75
60
66
12/83
12/83
12/83
2/83
12/83
69
24
67
9/83
243
242
86
248
42
42
25
47
81
81
67
83
11/83
10/83
8/83
11/83
51
51
51
51
88
89
249
87
241
240
25
25
47
25
42
42
67
67
83
67
81
81
8/83
8/83
11/83
8/83
10/83
10/83
51
51
51
51
51
51
27
23
66
24
23
33
33
33
15
32
9/83
9/83
61
24
970 38
20 12,23
10
23
67
76
66
66
12/83
12/83
9/83
9/83
34
34
32
32
652
651
93
93
8/83
8/83
6i>
65
57
57
Japan—See Internationa comparisons.
See notes at end of index.
112
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans-See Credit.
,
68
30
70
8/83
3!)
62
62
63
26
30
15
30
29
70
70
70
70
11/83
11/83
9/83
9/83
'3Y
930
930c
952
3
10
39
36
60
1/84
1/84
2/83
8/81
910 10
910c ' 39
74
60
1/84
1/84
3D
18
15
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
950
14
104
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
<•>
36
33
31
74
72
71
2/83
5/33
4/33
2/83
15
78
27
68
6/83
28
38
8
26
12,21
68
64
6/83
6/83
28
26
84
20
64
8/33
917
11
60
2/83
104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117
31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
9/83
11/83
12/83
10/83
10/83
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
42
46
46
27
24
8
23
23
12,21
66
66
64
9/83
9/83
6/83
26
26
26
20
12,23
66
9/83
32
10
548
7
6
23
53
21
21
9/83
6/83
6/83
6/83
32
26
26
26
964
971
37
38
66
90
64
64
77
75
76
6/83
5/83
26
48
88
87
86
248
25
25
25
47
67
67
67
83
8/83
8/83
8/83
H/83
51
51
51
51
517
543
721
53
53
58
90
90
94
1/84
4/83
1/83
66
580
54
91
7/83
557
49
54
20
91
63
7/82
8/83
"25
62
62
358
370
83
82
84
21
30
15
50
50
20
20
20
16
70
70
88
88
64
64
64
61
11/83
11/83
12/83
12/83
12/83
8/83
8/83
7/83
*61
61
25
25
25
15
453
452
451
51
51
51
89
89
89
3/83
3/83
3/83
20
20
20
15
44
40
M
Man-hours—See Employment.
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing, change
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices—See Price indexes.
Materials, rate of capacity utilization
Merchandise trade—See International transactions.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply M l , constant dollars
Money supply Ml, percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
N
National defense-See Defense.
National Government—See Government.
National income—See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
....
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP
0
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid, Oefense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output—See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Defense and space equipment, output
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Per hour, private business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (BEA)
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB)
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing production workers
P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 1619 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
J
L
Labor cost per unit of gioss domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force—See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
,
Composite index, rate of change
>
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income—See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and products, imports
Plant and equipment-See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, Dl
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Population, civilian employment as percent of
913
39
55
22
65
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83
8/S3
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
292
293
614
46
46
56
82
83
92
11/83
11/83
1/33
58
58
64
61
970
20
10
90
24
38
12,23
23
17
67
76
66
66
62
12/83
12/83
9/33
9/83
3/83
34
34
32
32
20
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Price indexes
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators, MIPA
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities.
Capital equipment
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods.
. . .
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials.
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
. . .
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices..
.
. .
Sensitive materials prices, percent change, .. .
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks.
...
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business.
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
.. .
Retail trade, Dl
.
Wholesale trade, Dl.
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks ....
Producer prices—See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPOI. . .
Production—See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Output per hour, private business sector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after taxes
Constant dollars
.
. . . .
Current dollars
. .
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars...
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
. . ..
Corporate profits, total
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income
Manufacturing and trade, Dl..
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing. .
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income.
. .
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income
.. .
Current issue
Series <page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
49
49
84,95
84
3/83
3/83
59
59
311
310
26
84
84
70
8/83
8/83
9/83
58
49
330
333
331
334
335
332
48
48
48
28
85
86
85
86
85
86
69
5/82
4/83
4/83
4/83
6/82
4/83
2/83
59
60
60
60
37
28
79
75
69
6/83
6/83
36
36
28
13,28
69
69
2/83
2/83
19
968
26
13,28
37
29
69
75
70
1/84
6/83
9/83
36
36
976
978
977
525
109
38
38
38
53
35
76
76
76
90
73
5/83
5/83
5/83
4/83
7/83
48
49
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
S
320
322
967
23
64
46
8/83
358
370
916
50
50
11
88
88
60
12/83
12/83
2/83
61
61
15
18
16
80
79
28
28
29
29
69
69
69
69
8/83
8/83
8/83
8/83
37
37
37
37
286
287
972
960
15
916
22
45
47
38
37
29
11
29
82
83
76
75
70
60
69
11/83
11/83
5/83
12/83
5/83
2/83
8/83
37
37
48
81
282
29
45
70
82
8/83
11/83
37
56
283
47
83
11/83
56
38
15
37
8/81
Quit rate, manufacturing
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
...
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
.
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDI
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures—See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
C)
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Salaries—See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices—See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components .
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government—See Government.
Stock prices—See also international comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on
order, change
Surplus—See Government.
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
U
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Number unemployed, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 1619 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Full-tirrie workers
Males 20 years and over
Total unemployed..
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change,.
United Kingdom—See International comparisons.
Velocity of money
967
23
284
37
28
45
79
75
69
82
6/83
6/83
11/83
36
36
57
285
93
89
249
47
33
25
47
83
72
67
83
11/83
6/83
8/83
11/83
57
45
51
51
59
54
22
22
65
65
9/83
9/83
31
31
GNP to money supply M l , ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany—See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices-See Price indexes.
Workweek of manufacturing production workers
Average workweek
Components
Diffusion index
213
40
69
57
56
973
77
59
54
24
14,22
22
38
15,27
22
22
67
65
65
76
68
65
65
9/83
9/83
9/83
5/83
9/83
9/83
9/83
28
28
28
48
28
31
31
295
298
290
292
293
46
46
46
46
46
82
83
82
82
83
11/83
11/83
11/83
11/83
11/83
37
58
58
58
58
98
99
588
28
'If
10/83
2/83
2/83
6/83
8
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
6/83
6/83
36
36
19
968
78
13,28
37
27
69
75
1/84
6/83
6/83
36
36
28
38
26
114
115
34
34
72
73
8/83
8/83
46
46
91
60
5
962
3
15,18
16
12,16
36
62
61
61
74
3/83
3/83
5/83
5/83
8/81
20
19
18
18
18
446
445
447
444
37
4
51
51
51
51
18,51
89
89
89
62,89
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
8/81
20
20
20
20
20
18
44
45
43
18
18
18
62
62
62
3/83
3/83
3/83
20
18
20
561
96
25
54
21
21
91
64
64
6/83
6/83
6/83
26
26
107
108
32
31
31
12,21
71
71
64
9/83
11/83
5/83
40
40
28
1
12,16
15
36
61
77
74
7/83
961
7/83
'is'
6/83
NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical. Indicators (1977) on which the series description appears.
113
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed tielow according to the sections of this report
in which they appear Series numbers are for identification
only and do noi reflect relationships or order among the
series. " M " folk wing a series title indicates monthly data;
"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are
referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System.
Bureau fcf Economic Analysis (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(23,66)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current
dollars ^M).—Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufadturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index if net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seascnal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies ( M ) . American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National
Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,71)
34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(29,70)
35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(29,70)
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972
dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(13,26,68)
Following the source for each series is an indication of the
pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding
Guide" also list;; chart and table page numbers for each
series.
13. Number! of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstrtet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysts and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
(23,65)
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).—Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)
I-A. Composile Indexes
14. Currcmi liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun &
Bradstrfiet, Inc.
(33,72)
910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes
series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,106, 111)
(M).-Sour:e 1
(10,39,60)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all
manufaituring corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commissionl seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic (Analysis
(29,70)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over ( E O M ) . - A m e r i c a n Bankers
Association
(33,72)
913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments
(includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)
16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).—
Source |l
(28,69)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and
purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26,
80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Sourcell
.
(28,69)
917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes
series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(includes series 4 1 , 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91 f 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lag.
ging composite index (series 930) (M).-Source
1
(1160)
1-B Cyclical Indicators
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3
4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3
5. Average weekly initial claims for
insurance, State programs (M).-U.S.
Labor, Employment and Training
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
Analysis
unemployment
Department of
Administration;
of Economic
(12,16,61)
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in current dollars (M).—Source 2(21,64,77)
7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(21,64)
41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Source 3
(14,17,62)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(17,62)
43. Unemployment rate, total (M). -Sources 2 and 3(18,62)
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and
over(M).-Sources2 and 3
(18,62)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-U.S. Department of Labor, Employment
and Training Administration
(18,62)
21. Average* weekly overtime hours of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(16,61)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—
The Conference Board
(16, 61)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
income! (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
47. Index of industrial production, total (M).-Source
4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
23. Index <jf spot market prices, raw industrial materials
(M).— Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(Used )y permission. Beginning with June 1981, this
ay not be reproduced without written permission
from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)
24. Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M),—Source
2
(23,66)
48. Employee-hours
(M).-Source3
25. Changs in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, Implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
business sector (Q).-Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)
27. Value lof manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources
1, 2, and 3
(23,66)
28. New private housing units started, total (M).-Source
2
(25,67)
29. Index bt new private housing units authorized by local
buildiijg permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)
8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(12,21,64)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by
32. Vendot performance, percent of companies receiving
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)
114
40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries-mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
19. tnde;( j)f stock prices, 500 common stocks ( M ) . Standarjd & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
30. Gross (private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Changfe in book value of manufacturing and trade
invuntfcries, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and
on order, manufacturing (M).-Source 2
(26,68)
in nonagricultural
establishments
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source
1
(19,63)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and
3
(19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).—
Source 1
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars ( M ) . Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars ( M ) . Sources 1, 2, and 3
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
2, and 3
(22,65)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
60.
Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)
( M ) . - S o u r c e s 1, 2, 3, and The Conference
Board
(16,61)
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)
62.
63.
Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of
industrial production, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1
and 4
(15,30,70)
Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).~
Source 3
(30,70)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
65.
Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Source
2
(27,68)
66. Consumer installment credit (EOM) -Source 4
67.
68.
69.
70.
(35,73)
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).-Source
4
(35,73)
Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic
product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio
of current-dollar compensation of employees to real
gross corporate product (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)
Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).-Source
2
(24,67)
Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars
(EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(27,68)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current
dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(35,73)
86.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1(25,67)
87.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidentiat
structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
88.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)
Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
960.
Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(35,75)
961.
Diffusion index of average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing—20 industries (M).-Sources 1
and 3
(36,74,77)
962.
Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).-Source 1
and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(36,74)
963.
Diffusion index of number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls—172-186 industries ( M ) . ~
Source 3
(36,74)
964.
Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries— 34-35 industries (M).—
Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965.
Diffusion index of newly approved capital
appropriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries
(Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)
91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(15,18,62)
93.
Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Source 4
(33,72)
94.
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)
95.
Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
(M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
96.
Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)
97.
Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (EOQ).-The Conference Board
(24,66)
98.
Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and
intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (28,69)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed) (M).—
Sources 1, 3t and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(13,28,69)
101.
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4
(15,35,73)
966.
Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries
(M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78).
102.
Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
967.
104.
Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).-Sources
1 and 4
(31,71)
Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials—
13 industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and
Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(35,75,79).
105.
Money supply M l in 1972 dollars ( M ) - S o u r c e s 1,3,
and 4
(31,71)
968.
Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—
49-82 industries (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M) -Sources 1, 3,
and 4
(13,31,71)
970.
Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, t o t a l - 22 industries (Q).-Source
1
(38,76)
971.
Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
972.
Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
973.
Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and t r a d e about l t 400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
974.
Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing
and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
975.
Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).~~
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
976.
Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing-about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).-Oun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
107.
Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
75.
Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).—
Source 4
(22,65)
108.
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 ( M ) . Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
76.
Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(24,67)
109.
Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
4
(35,73)
77.
Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales
(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total
(M).Sources 1, 2, and 3
(15,27,68)
110.
Total funds raised by private nonfinanciat borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
78.
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (EOM)-Source 2
(27,68)
111.
Change in credit outstanding (business and consumer
borrowing) (M).—Sources 1, 4, and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board
(13,32,72)
79.
Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars
112.
Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1 and 4
(32,72)
113.
Net chance in consumer installment credit (M).-Source
4
(32,72)
114.
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Source 4
(34,72)
81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate
domestic income (Q)-Source 1
(29,70)
115.
Yield on long-term Treasury
Department of the Treasury
82.
Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).-Source
4
(20,64)
116.
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
( M ) . - C i t i b a n k and U.S. Department of the
Treasury
(34,73)
83.
Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).—
Source 1
(20,64)
117.
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).-Source
4
(20,64)
118.
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration
(34,73)
951.
Ratio, civilian employment to total population of
working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(17, 62)
106.
(29,69)
(31,71)
Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
90.
nondurable
(20,63)
85. Change in money supply M l (M).—Source 4
950.
Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
indBx of industrial production,
manufactures (M).-Source 4
84.
1-C. Diffusion Indexes
952.
74.
Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
(34,72)
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
Index of industrial production, durable manufactures
(M).-Source4
(20,63)
80.
Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4
89.
73.
(Q).-Source 1
119,
bonds
(M).-U.S.
(34,73)
115
TITLES AMD SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about
400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 400
businessmen reporting (Q)(—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by emission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
Il-A. Nations! Income and Product
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(26, 42, 68, 81)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(40,80)
213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(40,80)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
220. National income in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(45,82)
223. Personal income in current dollars (M).-Source
1
(40,63)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(40,80)
225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).Source 1
(40,80)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
(Q).—Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-;Source 1
(41,80)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent
of gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source I
(42,81)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(42,81)
116
247. Grosfc private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
292. Personal saving (Q).—Source 1
248. Grosb private domestic fixed investment, nonresidentiat,
as al percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)
295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits plus
capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(46,82)
249. Giosi; private domestic fixed investment, residential, as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
250. Nut Exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
251. Net Exports of goods and services as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
252. Expofts of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44r82)
(46,82)
293. Personal saving rate-personal saving as a percent of
disposable personal income (Q).—Source 1 (46,83)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Source
1
(46,83)
Il-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q).~
Source 1
(48,84)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).—Source
3
(49,59,84,95)
253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44,82)
322. Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Source 3(49,84)
255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44,82)
256. Expoitts of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
incnnle and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82)
331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for further
processing (M).-Source 3
(48,85)
257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
incorrle and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, jn
currefit dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
1972|dollars (Q).—Source 1
(43,81)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
263. Feeler il Government purchases of goods and services in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
330. Index of producer prices, all commodities (M).-Source
3
.
(48,85)
332. Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
333. Index of producer prices, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Index of producer prices, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Index of producer prices, industrial commodities (M).—
Source 3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in
manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,
and seasonality (M).-Source 3
(49,87)
265. Feeler il Government purchases of goods and services as
a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(43,81)
267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Source
3
(49,87)
268. State land local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product <Q).Sourci 1
(47,83)
346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1
348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) first year changes (Q).-Source
3
(50,88)
(45,82)
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consul lption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,87)
3
(49,88)
283. Propri ttors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consul lption adjustments as a percent of national
incomi (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
284. Rental! income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).—
Source 3
(50,88)
285. Rental I income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income ( Q ) . SourcJ 1
(47,83)
286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(47,82)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income! (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)
441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source! 1
<
(47,83)
290. Gross spving—private saving plus government surplus or
deficit |(Q).-<>ource 1
(46,82)
U.S.
358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
442. Total civilian employment, tabor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE:
1984-420-993:210
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
47. United States, index of industrial production, total
(M).-Source4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2. and 3
(51,89)
570. Employment in defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,91)
320. United States, index of consumer prices, all items
(M).-Source 3
(48,59,84,95)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force
survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
448. Number employed, part-time workers for economic
reasons, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and
3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, mates 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
577. Defense Department personnel, military, active duty
(EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Washington Headquarters Services
(55,91)
578. Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hire
employment (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—
Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19
years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and
military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense,
OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and
Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(54,91)
Il-D. Government Activities
588. Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(M).-Source 2
(54,91)
500. Federal Government surplus.or deficit; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
Il-E. U.S. International Transactions
501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total ( M ) . Source 2
(56,92)
502. Federal Government expenditures; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
732. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).—
Department of Employment (London); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
733. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
612. General imports, total (M).-Source 2
735. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)
511. State and local government receipts; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
512. State and local government expenditures; national
income and product accounts (Q),—Source 1 (52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred ( M ) . U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90)
525. Defense Department military prime contract awards for
work performed in the United States (M).-U.S.
Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington
Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial
Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production ( M ) . ~
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)
727. Italy, index of industrial production ( M ) . - l s t i t u t o
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)
(56,92)
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source 1 (57,93)
651. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
(59,95)
736. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
667. Balance on goods and services (Q).-Source 1(57,93)
742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M)-Statistics Canada
(Ottawa)
(59,96)
(54,91)
668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
559. Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
746. France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
tl-F. International Comparisons
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d1 Italia
(Rome)
(59,96)
548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products
( M ) . - Source 2
(53,90)
557. Output of defense and space equipment (M).— Source
4
561. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
652. Income on foreign investments in the United States
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)
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