Full text of Business Conditions Digest : January 1981
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BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
JANUARY 1981
U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Philip M. Klutznick, Secretary
Courtenay M. Slater, Chief Economist for the Department of Commerce
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Allan H. Young, Deputy Director
Charles A. Waite, Acting Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Morton Somer—Seasonal adjustments
Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources
at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee under the
auspices of the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards. The Committee consists of
the following persons:
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, Bureau of Industrial Economics, U.S. Department ot
Commerce
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards
Ronald E. Kutscher, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
J. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.
Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
Annual subscription price: $55.00 domestic,
$68.75 foreign. Single copy price: $4.75
domestic, $5.95 foreign. Foreign airmail rates
are available upon request. Address all
correspondence concerning subscriptions to the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Make
checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents.
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
New Features and Changes for This Issue
OF
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
JANUARY 1981
Data Through December
Volume 21, Number 1
3
CYCLICAL
<:OM'^<!£
AMD
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! Al i
A2
A3 ;
A4
Bl |
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
j
tfrONENTS
Chart
Table
10
12
14
15
60
—
—
—
Employment and Unemployment
16
61
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
19
21
23
26
28
31
63
64
65
68
69
71
36
—
39
74
77
—
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components
;.<",. ;..-';V: or CHAN-";Cl
C2
C3
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change
The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is
necessary in the transaction of the public
business
required by law of this Department. Use
of funds for printing this periodical has been apr.
proved by the Director of the Office of
Management and Budget through September 1,
1983.
i
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
*' • :''l '*;; . t C ' "
GNP and Personal Income
...................................
Personal Consumption Expenditures
..........................
Gross Private Domestic Investment
............................
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
...................
Foreign Trade
.............................................
National Income and Its Components
..........................
Saving
...................................................
Shares of GNP and National Income
...........................
Bl
B2
Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
48
49
84
87
Cl
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
51
89
Dl
D2
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators
52
53
90
90
El
E2
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements
56
57
92
93
Fl
F2
F3
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices
58
59
59
94
95
96
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
B. Current Adjustment Factors
97
100
(December 1980 issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (October 1980 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (June 1980 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
103
106
110
114
Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
Changes in this issue are as follows:
changes in placement of
1. The series on employment and unemployment in the
civilian labor force (series 37, 42-44, 60, 90, 91, 441, 442,
444-448, and 451-453) have been revised for the period 1975
to date. These revisions reflect the source agency's endof-year updating of seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Office of Current Employment Analysis, Division
of Employment Analysis.
2. The series on Consumer installment credit (series
66, 95, and 113) have been revised by the source agency to
reflect recent benchmark information (for all holder groups
except finance companies) and updated seasonal adjustment
factors. These revisions affect the data for the period
beginning 1975.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System, Division of Research and Statistics, Mortgage and
Consumer Finance Section.
(Continued on page iv.)
The February issue of Business Conditions Digest is scheduled
for release on March 4.
ill
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
3. The series based wholly or in part on U.S. money stock measures
(series 85, 102, and 104-108) have been revised by the source agency to
reflect new benchmark information (December 1979 and March 1980 call
reports), the incorporation of daily deposits data from all nonmember
banks with total deposits greater than $15 million as of December 1979,
and revised estimates of deposits at credit unions and minor deposit
items at all thrift institutions. These revisions affect each of the
above-mentioned series for the period 1977 to date. The revised data
over this period for series 102, 106, and 108 also incorporate new
benchmark information for overnight RP's.
In addition to the revisions noted above, series 104 incorporates
(beginning with 1969) new benchmark information for term RP's and new
estimates of term Eurodollar assets of U.S. nonbank holders.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from
the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research
and Statistics, Banking Section.
4. The series on Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments
(series 48) has been revised by the source agency for the period 1972 to
date. This revision reflects a new seasonal adjustment of the basic data.
In this issue, revised data are shown graphically for the period beginning
1978 and in tabular form for the period beginning 1979. Revised data for
the earlier period will be shown in a subsequent issue.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity
and Technology, Division of Productivity Research.
5. Several months of data for series 45 (Average weekly insured
unemployment rate) have been revised for the period 1976 to date. This
revision reflects new seasonal adjustment factors computed by the source
agency.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from
the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration,
Office of Administration Management.
6. Appendix C contains historical data for series 910, 920, and 930.
7. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 30, 36, 50,
72, 77, 104, 910, and 920.
IV
OF PRESENTATION
adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
c o n f o r m i t y to business e x p a n s i o n s and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.)
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
This information, particularly the scores relating
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite
charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process
have been designated.
groups and combine those with similar timing
The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as
to periodic review by NBER and on occasion are weights. Because they use series of historically
changed as a result of revisions in important tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
economic time series. The dates shown in this pub- (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
lication for the 1948-1970 time period are those with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
determined by a 1974 review. The turning dates for of duplication, composite indexes give more
the 1973-1975 period are detailed in NBER's 1976 TjIftBtersigflals" over -time Wian do any fl
Annual Report.
individual indicators. Furthermore, much
1
'Oss-CIassification of Cyclical Indicator;,
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
f
Economic
Process
Cyclical
Timing
-\
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(62 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(18 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(8 series)
|
\\
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(6 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
i
i
III.
i CONSUMPTION,
[TRADE.
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)
New and
unfilled orders
and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption
(2 series)
Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)
Backlog of
investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(5 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)
'EMPLOYMENT
AND
, UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)
j
j
Duration of
unemployment
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Trade
(1 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(1 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)
1 11
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Industrial
production
(1 series)
New and unfilled
orders and
deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)
Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)
Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)
Consumption
and trade
(3 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(1 series)
Unfilled orders
(1 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(6 series)
!
:
V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
> (9 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)
!
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)
VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profits and
profit
margins
(7 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)
Money flows
(3 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
1 nterest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding
debt
(3 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profit share
(1 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)
VII.
MONEY
ANDCREDIT
(26 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(2 series)
Profits and
profit margins
(6 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)
Money flows
(2 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Profits
(2 series)
Money flow
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(3 series)
B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
Economic
Process
Cyclical
Timing
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
1
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)
IA-J
cf^r\(3,c\j
l*f
/ series
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(40 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(1 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
and duration
of
unemployment
(5 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d d i f f e r e n c e s in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through
+3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident
indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the post-1970 period
can be determined by inspection of the charts
where the 1973-75 recession is shaded according
to the dates of the NBER reference cycle
chronology.
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 111 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,
August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and lor four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.
Part II.
IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
This section contains measures of the civilian
in
the physical volume of inventories held by
This part is divided into six sections which cover
labor
force and its major components: Total
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series private business. The former include all private numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
purchases
of
dwellings,
whether
purchased
for
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
Some of these series are very comprehensive, tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
(A4)
is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
and
purchases
from business and from abroad. It force.
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and excludes transfer payments, interest paid by Section D. Government Activities
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surlabor r e s o u r c e s ; g o v e r n m e n t r e c e i p t s , investment by government enterprises but excludes
expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
ports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
land and financial assets.
government. Also shown is a selection of series
key foreign countries.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense Indicators.
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which
Section A. National Income and Product
of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national
The national income and product accounts,
included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
final expenditures for the personal, business,
international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at
Section Al shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services
which the activities they measure occur in the
final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
income. The four major components of the gross
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede pronational p r o d u c t — p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n the factor costs of the goods and services production, such as contract awards and new orders,
expenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of
are classified as "advance measures of defense
government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
coincide with production, such as employment, and
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as
section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period.
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving,
measures of defense activity."
series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions
the Survey of Current Business, Part I, government surplus or deficit.
January 1976.
This group includes monthly series on exports
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
Gross national product (GNP) is the market major e x p e n d i t u r e c o m p o n e n t s of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also
labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and
United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income.
most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income.
Section F. International Comparisons
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
nations with which we have important trade
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
income, rental income of persons, dividends, these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerpersonal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corless personal contributions for social insurance.
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inDisposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European
income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inpayments to government.
uct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1969.
The group of series on wages and tyoductivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price ingoods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1969) provide
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the
and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1969) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.
rates of change for most of these measures.
cluded.
4
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.
Basic Data
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)
Dotted line indicates anticipated data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.
Roman
number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).
Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A"
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.
Roman
number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.
Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Rates of Change
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.
Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3 - o r 4-quarter spans.
Roman
number
indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, or-
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Series title
Timing
classification3
Pwcem
Unit
Oct.
to
Nov.
1980
Average
of
1979
2d 0
1980
1980
3d 0
1980
4th Q
1980
Oct
Nov
Dec
1980
1980
1980
Nov.
to
Dec.
1980
do***
_»
3dQ
to
4th Q
1980
2dQ
to
3dQ
1980
E
3
C
$
%
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A. Composite Indexes
910 Twelve leading indicators
920 Four coincident indicators
930 Six lagging indicators
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
913. Marginal employment adjustments
914. Capital investment commitments
915 Inventory investment and purchasing
916 Profitability
917. Money and financial flows
L LL
CCC
L,L,L
L,L,L
L LL
L LL
L,L,L
do
do
140.1
145.1
166.4
131.4
140.4
177.6
124.1
138.4
182.7
131.2
137.4
163.2
136.7
141.1
181.3
135.7
140.3
168.2
137.7
141.0
175.3
136.6
141.9
200.3
1.5
0.5
4.2
-0.8
0.6
14. 3
5.7
-0.7
-10. 7
4.2
2.7
11. 1
91(
92(
93
do. . . .
do. . . .
do
do
do. . . .
96.8
113.5
105.9
91.7
145. 5
93.4
107.1
100.8
NA
135.4
89.4
103.9
98. 5
89.1
129.6
92.9
107. 5
99.5
NA
136.4
95.5
107.4
102.9
NA
138.4
95.0
107.2
102.6
NA
139.0
95.5
108.2
103.3
NA
138.9
96.0
106.9
102.9
NA
137.2
0.5
0.9
0.7
NA
-0.1
0.5
-1.2
-0.4
NA
-1.2
3.9
3.5
1.0
NA
5.2
2.8
-0.1
3.4
NA
1.5
91,
91'
91
91
91
40.2
3.3
4.0
381
1.1
2.0
39.7
2.8
3.6
484
1.9
1.5
39.4
2.7
3.1
607
3.1
1.4
39.3
2.6
3.6
513
1.7
1.3
39.9
2.9
3.7
411
1.3
1.4
39.7
2.8
3.9
439
1.4
1.3
39.9
2.9
3.6
399
1.2
1.4
40.2
3.1
3.6
394
1.2
1.5
0.5
0.1
-0.3
9.1
0.2
0.1
0.8
0.2
0.
1.3
0.
0.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.5
15.5
1.4
-0.1
1.5
0.3
0.1
19.9
0.4
0.1
Ratio
1967=100...
0.786
0.520
0.454
0.448
0.502
0.497
0.027 -0.005
•0.006
0.043
129
116
119
0.491
130
0.475
158
127
134
130
5.5
-3.0
2.6
9.2
6(
4(
A.r., bil.hrs..
Thousands. .
169.72
93,648
89,886
26,504
169.98
93,960
90,652
25,857
1 6 9 . 7 8 170.18 171.45
93,887 93,999 93,888
9 0 , 710 9 0 , 9 1 7 91, 122
2 5 , 6 3 6 2 5 , 8 0 4 25,916
0.2
0.1
0. 2
0.7
0.7
-0.1
0. 2
0.4
-0.6
0.
-0.4
-1.7
1.4
0.2
0.9
1.8
4*
4
4
4
Percent
59.25
58.51
58.49
58.27
58.18
58.21
58.22
58.11
0.01
Thousands . .
Percent
5,963
7,448
7,921
7. 5
4.3
12.4
2.0
7,961
7.6
4.1
13.3
2.2
7,946
7,785
7.1
3.9
11.9
1.7
7, 652
7.3
4.2
11.2
1.6
7,897
5.8
2.9
10.8
1.2
7.5
3.8
13.6
2. 2
7.4
3.5
13.5
2.3
0.2
0.1
0.3
-2.3
0.
2.0
0.1
0.3
0.7
-0.1
1 4 8 3 . 0 1481.8 1 4 6 3 . 3 1471.9
1197.4 1 2 0 7 . 8 1194.8 1 2 0 7 . 6
1043.8 1043.4 1036.2 1035.6
1490. 1
1222.5 1225.3
1052.6 1056.0
0.5
0.7
0.2
0.3
1967=100
B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
B1. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
L,L,L
21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.2 ..
L,C,L
2. Accession rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2 . . . .
L,L,L
5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted 4 )
L,C,L
*3. Layoff rate, per 100 employ., mfg. (inv. 4 ) 2 . . L,L,L
4. Quit rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2
L,Lg,U
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons
unemployed 2
46. Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagri. establishments . . .
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
*41 . Employees on nonagri. payrolls
40. Employees in mfg., mining, construction . . . .
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age2
L Lg U
L,Lg,U
u,c,c
U,C,C
CCC
L,C,U
U,Lg,U
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Total unemployed (inverted 4 )
L,Lg,U
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 4 ) 2
L,Lg,U
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy- rate (inv. 4 ) 2 . . L,Lg,U
*91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted 4 ) . . Lg,Lg,Lg
44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over (inv. 4 ) 2 .. Lg.Lg.Lg
Hours
do. . . .
Percent
Thousands. .
Percent
do. . . .
do
do. . . .
do. . . .
Weeks
Percent
1 6 9 . 2 0 168.17 1 7 0 . 4 7
93,758 93,769 93,925
9 0 , 4 8 9 9 0 , 131 9 0 , 9 1 6
2 5 , 7 6 3 25,317 2 5 , 7 8 5
7.5
3.8
13.5
2.2
-0.11
-0.22
-0.09
2
t
9
0.3
0.
0.5
-8.9
-0.2
3
4
4
9.
4
0. 6
1.1
-0.1
1. 2
1.1
1.5
5(
5
5
-3.5
-0.2
-0.1
-10.7
-0.4
B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
RD PMP in 1Q79 rlnllarc
52 Personal income in 1972 dollars
*51. Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars ..
53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction, 1972 dollars
Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production, total
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
Capacity Utilization:
82 Capacity utilization rate mfq FRB 2
bd. apacity uti iza ion ra e, m g.,
rRR2
CCC
c,c,c
c,c,c
. . . . . . do. . . .
c,c,c
do. . . .
247.2
231.2
228.2
c,c,c
c,c,c
1967=100...
152.5
146.4
164.0
147.1
136.5
161.2
674.5
666.3
144.6
133.9
158.3
658 . 1
C,L,L
CCC
' do
do. . . .
do. . . .
A r bil dol
L CU
L CU
do
do
85.6
82
87 . 4
1221.3
1051.3
1216.2
1045.4
226.2
231.6
229.7
232.0
233.0
1.0
0.4
-0.9
2.4
5
142.1
129.8
157.3
148.9
138.1
163.6
667 5
146.8
135.6
161.9
149.2
138.8
163.6
150.7
139.9
165.2
1.6
2.4
1.0
1.0
0.8
1.0
-1.7
-3.1
-0.6
-0. 1
4.8
6.4
4.0
1. 5
4
7
li
4
-2 . 2
3. 4
NA
5. 0
8
8
8^
657.5
79. 0
NA
79.8
77.9
76
78.7
76.33
36.90
32.79
68.73
75.14
33.71
36.06
32.22
75.7
76
74 . 9
79.1
NA
79. 9
o
-3 . 8
B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and
Deliveries
Orders
6
7.
*8.
25.
96.
*32.
and Deliveries:
New orders durable goods
New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars
New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 dol. .
Chg. in unfilled orders, durable goods 2
Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods 5
Vendor performance 2 @
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars . .
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54 Sales of retail stores
59 Sales of retail stores 1972 dollars
58 Index of consumer sentiment (§)
.....do. ...
77. 20
41.40
L,Lg,U
do. . . .
do. . . .
Bil. dol., EOP
267.88
L,L,L
Percent
C,C,C
C,C,C
C,L,C
C,L,U
ULU
L CC
L LL
Bil. dol
do. . . .
288.22
159.82
1967=100...
150.8
L LL
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
Bil dol
Mil dol
do
A r bil dol
I Q 1966=100
81.43
38.21
80.69
38.23
81.05
38.12
82.56
38.28
33.65
29.45
34.27
35.10
34.07
1.84
1.02
1.41
-1.50
1.19
1.31
3.03
2 8 0 . 15 2 7 0 . 3 8 2 7 4 . 6 2 2 8 0 . 1 5 2 7 5 . 8 1 2 7 7 . 1 2 2 8 0 . 1 5
63
40
45
33
35
44
45
47
36.46
3.26
73,837
44,800
65. 3
66.0
NA 2 9 3 . 8 9 310.16
NA 148. 54 152. 07
145.6
143.3
143.0
78,538 75,200
4 3 , 0 5 1 41,777
61. 6
64.4
50. 7
54.4
NA 3 2 5 . 8 4 3 2 9 . 1 4
NA 156.10 1 5 4 . 2 6
147.7
146.6
148.1
NA
NA
148.4
1.9
0.4
-1. 2
1.72
1.1
2
9.3
7.0
9.4
2.91
1.6
2
8.4
6.0
6.4
0.43
2.0
10
2
9
3
1.0
-1.2
1.0
1.6
1.1
NA
NA
0.2
-1.3
-2.0
NA
NA
3.3
2.6
0. 2
11. 6
6.3
5
5
7
5
5
5
5
NA
NA
75.0
76.7
64.5
2.3
-15.9
5.5
2.4
-0.2
5.1
2.9
15. 8
24.6
NA
118.8
NA 4 7 , 2 2 5
118.8
NA
NA
NA
0.
NA
NA
NA
0.2
7.8
79,048
43,000
81,124
43,083
58. 7
67.8
65. 5
72.1
8 0 , 6 0 9 81,933 8 0 , 8 3 0
43,060 43,535 42,654
(
0.4
-0.3
-2.9
0.12
0.5
1
B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12 Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
L LL
L,L,L
1967=100
Number. . . .
131.7
43,714
NA
117.7
117.9
NA 4 1 , 3 9 4 4 4 , 6 0 4
1
1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Baste data1
Series title
Timing
classification3
Unit
of
measure
Peitcemt
Ave rage
2d 0
1980
3d 0
4th 0
1980
1980
Nov.
1980
Nov.
1980
Dec.
1980
fe
2dQ
to
3dQ
1980
D pr
Nov
1980
1980
Oct.
change
3dQ
|
4th Q
1980
.5
1979
1980
25.47
24.77
22.77
24.23
26.01
23.82
27.47
26.74
15.3
-2.7
6.4
7.3
1
14.45
21.85
14.05
21.82
16.9
6.0
-2.8
-0.1
5. 7
0. 2
4. 3
4.0
2
2
2
£
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment— Con.
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment . . .
*20. Contr. and orders, plant and equip.,
1972 do)
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense . . .
27. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
11 New capital appropriations mfg
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Business expend., new plant and equipment ..
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equip
86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dol. . .
Residential Construction Commitments and
Investment:
28. New private housing units started, total
*29. New building permits, private housing
89 Fixed investment, residential 1972 dol. . .
L,L,L
Bil. dol
L LL
L,L,L
do. . ..
do. . . .
14.65
21.64
13.31
21.31
12.36
20.57
13.06
20.61
13.62
21.43
12.36
20.62
L,L,L
do. . . .
12.68
11.73
11.36
11.42
11.57
10.92
11.95
11.85
9.4
-0.8
0.5
1.3
LC U Mil. sq.ft. ..
U Lg U Bil dol . . . .
C,Lg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP
90.34
22.20
76.66
78.55
NA
NA
68.94
25. 86
87.94
68.22
24. 93
89. 84
86.12
NA
NA
71.38
90.12
96.87
26.3
7. 5
-1.0
-3 6
2. 2
26.2
NA
NA
1
9
0.6
-0. 4
6
C,Lg,Lg A.r., bil. dol.
270. 4 6 2 9 4 . 30 2 9 4 . 36 2 9 6 . 23 2 9 4 . 95
C Lg Lg . . . .do. . . .
C,Lg,U 1967=100...
C,Lg,C A.r., bil. dol.
271. 93
171.3
163.3
A.r., thous. .
1967=100...
A.r., bil. dol.
L,L,L
L,L,L
L LL
NA 2 9 2 . 55 2 9 4 . 14
172.0
172.9
170.3
157.7
156.1 155. 5
NA 3 0 3 . 52 3 0 4 3 7
173.4
173.4
171.8
154. 3
NA
174.9
0 3
0.9
NA
0.9
0 5
-1.0
-0. 4
NA
1.8
-0. 8
5
1,744
123.8
59.1
1,291
95.5
47.9
1,557
107.7
1,563
109. 5
1, 548
99.8
0.4
1.7
-1.0
-8.9
34.1
54.5
3. 7
10.2
-5.6
11. 4
2
2
8
-1.2
-6. 3
4. 8
3
-6. 40
23.6
1.44
-0. 40
20.4
0.85
NA
NA
NA
6. 00
-3.2
-0. 59
NA
NA
NA
-4.10
-1.6
2.09
NA
NA
NA
3
3
3
NA 4 5 6 . 5 3 4 5 8 . 2 4
NA 2 5 6 . 0 5 2 5 5 . 6 0
NA
76.43
76.81
NA
NA
NA
0.4
-0.2
0.5
NA
NA
NA
1.7
-0.2
0.2
NA
NA
NA
7
7
6
1,053
72.5
43.1
1,412
112.0
44. 7
1,556
105.7
49. 8
1.3
-5. 0
-0. 2
-8. 75 -12. 85
31.7
30.1
-1.84
0.25
NA
NA
NA
7
8
B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Chg. in business inventories, 1972 dol.2
*36. Change in inventories on hand and on order,
1972 dollars (smoothed 6 ) 2
31. Chg. in book value, mfg. and trade invent.2 ..
38. Chg. in mtl. stocks on hand and on order2 . . .
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, total 5
*70. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 1972 dol. 5
65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods 5
77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade,
constant dollars 2
78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and on
order 5
L,L,L
do. . . .
10.2
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
do. ...
do. . . .
Bil. dol
10.62
46.2
2.56
Lg,Lg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP
do. . . .
Lg,Lg,Lg
do. . . .
Lg,Lg,Lg:
426.80
257.32
70.53
In LD La Ratio
1
L Lg Lg Bil dol., EOP
NA
NA
NA
NA 4 4 7 . 0 3 4 5 4 . 5 7
NA 2 5 6 . 6 1 2 5 6 . 1 2
NA
76.61
76.76
i -70
C r\
199 20
NA 199 90 900 f\ "\
909
07
9 O9
Q9
O
A
B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*92. Chg. in sensitive prices (smoothed 6 ) 2
23. Spot market prices raw industrials @
L,L,L
DLL
Percent
1967=100
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®
L,L,L
1941-43=10.
Profits and Profit Margins:
1 6. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Corp. prof its after taxes, 1972 dollars . . .
79. Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj . . .
80
do
in 1972 d o l . . . .
1 5. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg,2 . . .
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm bus . . . . .
L,L,L
L LL
L,C,L
L,C,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
A.r., bil. dol.
.....do. ...
do. . . .
. . . . . d o . ...
Cents
1967=100...
167.8
161. 9
NA
99 . 6
NA
109. 2
NA
65. 5
NA
5. 7
NA
94.3
146. 5
80. 3
97. 8
54.1
4. 4
93.3
159. 1
85 5
99. 4
54. 0
4. 6
93. 9
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Cash Flows:
34. Net cash flow, corporate
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars
L.L.L
L,L,L
A.r., bil. dol.
do. ...
257.1
149. 1
NA
NA
246.1
132. 2
262. 9
138.6
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, private business sector
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
domestic product (1972), nonfin. corp
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income2
2.08
9 q o f\
1.55
9 qp n
0.19
0.99
2.50
m-j
2.45
2.71
2.35
0. 26
-0. 36
0.80
1.51
9
103.01 118.78 1 0 8 . 4 0 1 2 3 . 2 8 133.12 1 3 0 . 2 2 1 3 5 . 6 5 1 3 3 . 4 8
4.2
-1.6
13.7
8.0
1
8. 6
6 5
1 6
-0 2
0 2
0.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1
1
7
8
1
2
NA
NA
6. 8
4. s
NA
NA
3
3
2. 0
NA
6
0 8
3.2
NA
0.
6
6
5
NA
6
9 ft 9
(\
9 ft Q
"\
Lg,Lg,Lg 1967=100...
214.0
NA
235.6
240. 4
NA
Lg,Lg,Lg Dollars
Lg,Lg,Lg 1967=100...
1. 092
175.8
1. 197
195.3
1. 193
194.6
1. 203
200.9
NA
200.9
74. 4
NA
75. 8
75. 3
NA
. ..
0.60
0.71
0.97
215.7
846.3
0.53
0.78
0.76
202.2
813.5
0.02
0.71
0.69
198.5
802.1
1.40
1.18
0.76
202.2
819.9
0.32
0.62
0.95
201.9
815.0
0.98
0.74
0.95
203.4
817.8
0.73
0.88
0.96
202.9
816.9
-0.75
0.23
0.93
199.3
810.3
-0.25
0.14
0.01
-0.2
-0.1
-1.48
-0.65
-0.03
-1.8
-0.8
1.38
0.47
0.07
1.9
2. 2
-1.08
-0.56
0.19
-0.1
-0.6
8
10
10
10
10
6. 600
1.348
6. 612
1.349
6. 559
1.339
6.638
1.355
1.349
1.353
1.362
0.004
0.009
•0 053
-0.010
0 079
0.016
10
10
qo
ft n E, Q
•3 c q n
A-I
p9
1 9 ft 1
6 0, Q
5 q9
NA
1.65
NA
Lg,Lg,Lg Percent
200.1
200.8
201.7
0.3
0.4
-0
B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply (M1-B)2
102. Change in money supply (M2) 2
*104. Chg. in total liquid assets (smoothed 6 ) 2
105. Money supply (M1-B), 1972 dollars
*106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars
L,L,L
L,C,U
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
Percent.
do.
do.
Bil. dol
do.
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (M1-B)2
108. Ratio, pers. income to money supply (M2) 2 ..
c,c,c
Ratio
C,Lg,C
do. ...
6. 446
1.323
L LL
L LL
L,L,L
L,L,L
A r bil dol
do
do. . . .
do. . . .
22 88
38.69
356.98
Credit
33
11 2
113.
1 10.
Flows:
Change in mortgage debt2
Change in business loans2
Change in consumer installment credit2
Total private borrowing
.. .
...
...
oc
-\ q
9 C no
£L 1 ft ^
NA
94
^ ft
11 4 5
19 68
NA - 2 5 . 57
1.38
NA 171. 74 2 8 3 . 03
•DC
A f\
p A
9 Q ft 1
NA
NA
8.42
10.07
-) c
p9
•DC
p O
26.95
64. 8
n
A f.
11
NA
NA
11
11
Basic data1
Timing
classification3
Series title
Unit
of
measure
PnrcBrt change
Average
1979
1980
2dQ
1980
3dQ
1980
4th Q
1980
Oct.
1980
Nov.
1980
Nov.
to
Dec.
1980
Oct.
to
Nov.
1980
Dec.
1980
2dQ
to
3dQ
1980
3dQ
to
4th Q
1980
Strisi number
1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7. Money and Credit-Con.
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.4)®
39. Delinquency rate, instal. loans (inv. 4 ) 2 5 . . . .
L,L,L
L,L,L
Mil.dol
Percent, EOP
222.28
2.64
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted4!2©
94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve 2 ®
L,U,U
L,Lg,U
Mil.dol
do. . . .
-1,131 -1,131 -1,070
1,338
1,416
1,279
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate 2 ©
114. Treasury bill rate 2 ©
115. Treasury bond yields 2 ®
116. Corporate bond yields2©
1 1 7. Municipal bond yields2®
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ®
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans2®
*109. Average prime rate charged by banks 2 ®
L,Lg,Lg Percent
do.
C,Lg,Lg
do.
C.Lg.Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lg
do.
U,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lg
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit5
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large comm. banks
*95. Ratio, consumer install, credit to pers. income2
...
...
...
. ..
...
. ..
. ..
11.20
10.04
8.74
10.05
6.52
10.89
13.18
12.67
Lg,Lg,Lg Bil.dol., EOP
303.58
Lg,Lg,Lg Bil.dol
Lg,Lg,Lg Percent
NA 4 1 5 . 3 3 5 9 8 . 0 1
NA
2.74
2.70
NA 3 5 9 . 2 4
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-44.0
0.04
NA
NA
-471 -1,269 -1,018 -1,201 -1,587
774
1,703
1,335
2,156
1,617
183
821
386
-539
-599
-505
798
929
9
9
6.01
4.47
1.21
1.70
1.04
0.91
4.15
5.12
11
11
11
11
11
11
6
10
9.84
9.24
10.43
12.18
8.58
13.40
11.56
11.61
15.85
13.71
11.64
13.88
9.62
14.31
15.71
16.73
1
3
12.81
11.58
11.20
13.17
9.11
14.38
15.85
13.89
11.83
14.10
9.56
14.47
18.90
15.66
11.89
14.38
10.20
14.08
3.04
2.31
0.63
0.93
0.45
0.09
3.05
1.77
0.06
0.28
0.64
-0.39
13.79
16.06
20.35
2.27
4.29
-2.85
-0.81
0.41
0.15
0.63
0.97
-6.19
-4.71
NA
0.3
NA
0.1
NA
6
1 4 7 . 0 6 1 6 3 . 7 7 160.17 162.81 1 7 0 . 9 5 1 6 7 . 7 9 1 7 0 . 7 8 1 7 4 . 2 7
NA
14.79
14.44
NA
13.86
13.60
NA
13.49
1.8
-0.11
2.0
NA
1.6
-0.58
5.0
NA
7
9
13.36
11.61
10.81
12.77
8.60
13.42
15.17
15.27
12.69
10.05
10.02
12.03
7.95
12.43
17.75
16.32
NA 3 0 2 . 9 7 3 0 3 . 3 1
NA 3 0 4 . 0 2 3 0 4 . 8 6
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
B1. Price Movements
320. Consumer prices (CPI), all items®
320c Change in CPI all items S/A 2
322. CPI, food
330.
331
332.
333
334.
Producer prices (PPI), all commodities ©
PPI crude materials
PPI, intermediate materials
PPI capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods
1
|
1972=100. . .
1967=100...
Percent
1967=100...
162.8
217.4
1.0
234.5
177.4
246.8
1.0
254.6
175.3
245.0
0.9
249.4
179.2
249.6
0.6
257.3
184.0
256.2
1.0
266.5
253.9
1.0
263.6
256.2
1.0
266.6
258.4
1.1
269.4
0.9
0.
1.1
0.9
0.1
1.1
2.2
1.9
-0.3
3.2
2.7
2.6
0.4
3.6
31
32
32
32
do.
do.
do.
do.
do.
...
...
...
. ..
...
235.6
282.2
242.8
216.7
215.7
268.6
316.1
279.6
239.5
246.7
264.2
293.2
275.8
237.0
242.9
272.8
326.9
282.3
242.7
251.3
278.6
343.4
289.4
248.4
255.3
277.0
342.3
286.3
246.6
253.8
278.4
346.2
289.1
248.0
255.5
280.3
341.6
292.9
250.5
256.7
0.5
1.1
1.0
0.6
0.7
0.7
-1.3
1.3
1.0
0. 5
3.3
11.5
2.4
2.4
3.5
2.1
5.0
2. 5
2.3
1.6
33
33
33
33
33
do. . . .
229.8
250.6
248.5
253.8
260.1
257.9
260.7
261.6
1.1
0.3
2.1
2. 5
34
do.
do.
do.
do.
105.6
247.1
113.7
118.3
101.7
NA
NA
NA
101.4
268.0
109.5
116.8
101.8
273.7
109.9
116.9
101.3
NA
NA
NA
101.5
101.6
100.8
0.1
-0.8
0.4
2.1
0.4
0.1
-0.5
NA
NA
NA
34
34
34
37
0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-2.0
-3.0
1.1
-5.0
0.3
0.
3.5
5.6
1.8
1.9
0.2
0.2
-0. 3
-3.7
5.2
-1.3
44
44
3
44
44
44
-0.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.5
-0.2
0.1
-0.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.
45
45
45
3.8
4.7
-7.7
3.5
2.3
4.7
NA
3.8
NA
NA
2.0
NA
50
50
50
51
51
51
82. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
341. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus. . .
346. Real avg. hourly comp., nonfarm business . . .
370. Output per hour, private business sector
C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
441
442
37
444.
445.
446.
Labor
451.
452.
453
...
...
...
...
;
Total civilian labor force
Total civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Unemployed males, 20 years and over
Unemployed females, 20 years and over
Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of age
Millions . . . .
do. . . .
Thousands. .
do. .
do. . . .
do. . . .
Force Participation Rates:
Males, 20 years and over 2
Females, 20 years and over 2
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age2
Percent
do. . . .
do
102.91 1 0 4 . 7 2 104. 69 1 0 4 . 9 8 105.17 105.17 1 0 5 . 2 8 1 0 5 . 0 7
96.94
97.04
97. 27
97.06
97.21
97.28
97.34
97.28
5,963
7, 652
7,921
7,961
7,448
7, 897
7,946
7,785
2,223
3, 261
3, 440
3,532
3,631
3,496
3,532
3,425
2,213
2, 734
2,547
2,554
2, 600
2,732
2,720
2,750
1,528
1,689
1,640
1,658
1,667
1,697
1,694
1,610
79.8
50.6
58.1
79.4
51.4
56.9
79.6
51.4
57.0
79.4
51.5
56.4
79.2
51.4
56.4
494.4
509.2
-14.8
351.2
324.4
26.7
539.7
601.3
-61.6
383.0
354.7
28.2
520.9
587. 3
-66.5
373.9
350.0
23.9
540.8
615.0
-74.2
386.8
358.2
28.6
NA
638.3
NA
NA
365.3
NA
79.3
51.4
56.8
79.2
51.5
56.5
79.0
51.4
56.0
D. Government Activities
D1. Receipts and Expenditures
501 Federal Government receipts
502. Federal Government expenditures
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit2
51 1 . State and local government receipts
51 2. State and local government expenditures . . . .
510 State and local govt. surplus or deficit 2
A.r.,bil.dol.
do. . . .
do. . . .
do. . . .
do. . . . |
do. . . .
D2. Defense Indicators
517
525.
548
564
Defense Department obligations
Military prime contract awards
New orders defense products
National defense purchases
. . .
Mil.dol
do
do. ...
A.r.,bil. dol.
11,132
5,356
3,284
111.2
NA 1 3 , 3 4 6 1 3 , 7 4 4
NA
7,270
7,413
4,581
4,591
5,113
131.4
131.9
128.7
NA 1 2 , 5 9 6 11,582
NA
NA
NA
4,745
3,908
4,453
142.7
NA
NA
5,873
-8.1
NA
13.9
NA
NA
31.9
3.0
-1.9
11.4
2.1
NA
NA
-7.2
8.6
51
52
54
56
Mil.dol.
do.
do.
.....do.
do.
do
15,136
2,896
3,009
17,195
4,676
1,853
NA 1 8 , 2 6 3 18,626
NA
3,131
3,543
NA
3,711
4,081
NA 19,910 19,232
NA
5,384
6,329
NA
1,851
2,171
NA 19,088 1 8 , 6 3 4
NA
3,491
3,525
NA
4,117
3,968
NA 2 0 , 0 6 0 19,422
NA
5,876
6,051
NA
2,189
2,314
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-2.4
1.0
-3.6
-3.2
3.0
5.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
2.0
13.2
10.0
-3.4
-14.9
17.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
60
60
60
61
61
61
E. U.S. International Transactions
E1 . Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616
Exports, total except military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Imports of automobiles and parts
...
...
. ..
...
. ..
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
PB rcent change
Unit
Average
of
Series title
3dQ
measure
1978
1979
1980
1979
4th Q
1979
IstQ
LSI y
1980
2d 0
1980
3d Q
1980
4th 0
1980
IstQ
2dQ
2dQ
1980
3dQ
1980
S
3dQ
to
4th Q
1980
!
%»
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
618.
620.
622
651
652.
668
669
667.
Mil. dol
Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Merchandise trade balance2
Income on US investments abroad
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goorJs and services
Balance on goods and services2
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
35,514
43,953
-8,440
10,743
45,514
52,881
-7,367
16,492
5,518
8,365
5 5 , 2 6 0 71,627
57,560 70,408
-2,301
1,220
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
47,198
54,258
-7,060
18,050
50,237
59,462
-9,225
18,407
8,731
9,524
74,773 78,305
72,267 78,555
2, 506
-250
54,708
65,558
10,850
20,846
10,752
85,647
86,445
-798
54,710
62,215
-7,505
16,641
10, 508
81,892
82,997
-1,105
56,288
59,116
-2,828
19,113
10,646
86,403
80,026
6,377
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.
-5.1
2.9
-5.0
3,345
4,677
-20.2
-2.3
-4.4
-4.0
-307
14.9
1.3
5.5
-3.6
7,482
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
618
620
622
651
652
668
669
667
-2.6
-0.3
-2.7
1.1
-1.3
-2.8
-1.5
0.6
2.8
1.0
3.2
1.0
0.3
0.7
1.2
3.9
0.9
3.2
0.8
1.0
0.5
50
200
213
224
225
217
227
-2.6
-13.2
-1.4
0.
-0.3
-12.0
0.4
2.6
1.3
5.1
-0.5
1.6
3.4
7.4
1.5
4.0
1.3
4.3
0.7
0.9
3.7
6.4
3.5
3.2
231
233
238
239
230
232
236
237
-8.2
-9.1
2.2
-5.9
-7.2
4.9
-2.6
0.5
-6.3
-3.5
2.5
-23.4
4.4
1.9
4.8
7.1
4.1
10.3
241
243
30
240
242
245
0.6
2.9
-0.7
2.6
4.6
1.4
-1.3
-3.4
0.1
0.7
-1.9
2.2
0.7
1.6
0.2
4.7
9.4
2.0
261
263
267
260
262
266
-3.3
-6.0
1.6
-1.2
-3.9
8.9
0.
-5.6
5.9
2.7
-5.8
27.4
-0.6
3.7
-4.7
2.0
5.6
-10.0
256
257
255
252
253
250
134.2
NA
32.6
194.3
-0.9
0.7
-6.6
-15.4
1.0
6.0
2.5
1.8
3.8
5.1
1.6
5.7
HA
4.1
3.5
NA
1.9
4.9
220
280
282
286
284
288
NA
NA
106.6
NA
5.6
-2.5
-0.3
27.3
-32.9
1.3
1.9
2.7
1.3
-3.1
-0.1
NA
NA
-4.3
NA
-0.5
290
295
292
298
293
A. National Income and Product
A1. GNPand Personal Income
50
200.
213
224.
225.
217
227.
GNP in 1972 dollars
GNP in current dollars
Final sales 1972 dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars . . .
Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars
Per capita disposable pers. income, 1972 dol. . .
A.r., bil.dol
do
do
do
do
A r dollars
do
1436.9
2156.1
1423.0
1462.9
1481. 8 1 4 8 8 . 2 1490. 6 1501.9 1 4 6 3 . 3 1471.9 1490.1
981.5
1483.0
2413.9
1472.9
1641.7
1011.5
6,568
4,487
6,721
2628.8
1483.0
1822.2
1018.6
6,650
4,584
4, 571
4, 598
904.8
930.9
934.2
933.4
146. 3
146.6
135.6
146. 7
2444.1
1480.6
1663.8
1015.7
6,737
2496.3
1491.3
1710.1
1017.7
2571.7
1502.8
1765.1
1021.0
6, 731
6,767
4,596
4,600
2637.3
1476.9
1840.6
1018.5
6,597
6, 578
4,532
4,565
2564.8
1462.0
1784.1
1008.2
2741.4
1490.3
1899.1
1026.6
6,660
4,589
A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
231.
233
238.
239.
230.
232
236
237
Total, 1972 dollars
Dorable goods 1972 dollars
Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars
Services, 1972 dollars
Total, current dollars
Durable goods current dollars
Nondurable goods current dollars
Services current dollars
A.r., bil.dol
....
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
345.7
354.6
412.8
429.6
1 3 4 8 . 7 1510.9
357.6
355.4
440.9
431.3
434.3
1671.1 1529.1 1 5 8 2 . 3
199.3
212.3
211.6
529.8
602.2
696.3
674.3
785.3
232.6
222.5
10.2
415.8
619.6
941.6
146.0
361.3
213.3
611.5
216.1
704.3
639.2
727.0
204.5
205.7
232.6
225.0
222.2
-1.2
7.6
421.7
943.4
145.4
361.5
919.3
126.2
930.8
943.0
132.6
138.3
354.9
357.5
356.6
436.5
443.3
447.3
1626.8 1682.2 1744.4
222.1
208.8
194.4
661.1
674.2
697.8
664.0
799.2
749.0
768.4
824.5
436.5
1631.0
220.9
A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
241.
243.
30.
240
242.
245.
do
do
do
do
do
do
Total, 1972 dollars
Total fixed investment, 1972 dollars
Change in business inventories, 1972 dol. 2 . . . .
Total current dollars
....
Total fixed investment, current dollars
Chg. in bus. inventories, current dol. 2
229.7
215.8
14.0
375.3
353.2
22.2
398.3
396.8
399.8
17.5
-3.0
281.8
101.7
180.1
290.1
108.4
181.7
281.1
99.9
181.2
408.3
13.3
221.5
-0.7
410.0
410.8
-0.8
218.3
219.2
-0.9
415.6
413.1
2.5
200.5
195.3
203.9
199.2
1.3
200.2
204.1
-0.2
290.1
107.6
182.5
516.8
190.0
291.9
110.7
181.2
390.9
383.5
7.4
-5.0
377.1
393.2
-16.0
403.7
409.4
-5.7
A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
261.
263.
267.
260.
262.
266.
Total, 1972 dollars
Federal Government, 1972 dollars
State and local governments, 1972 dollars
Total, current dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
State and local governments, current dollars . . .
256.
257
255.
252.
253.
250.
Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . . .
Imports of goods and services 1972 dollars
Net exports of goods and serv., 1972 dol.2 —
Exports of goods and services, current dol
Imports of goods and services, current dol
Net exports of goods and serv., current dol.2 . .
do
do
do
do
do
do
277.8
99.8
178.0
285.3
103.1
182.2
432.6
473.8
534.8
475.4
496.4
153.4
167.9
199.2
279.2
305.9
335.6
165.1
310.4
178.1
318.3
do
do
do
do
do
do
127.5
103.0
24.6
219.8
146.9
109.2
37.7
281.3
161.6
108.5
53.1
151.3
110.2
41.1
293.1
220.4
267.9
-0.6
13.4
314.5
26.1
do
do
do
do
do
do
1745.4
1299.7
1963.3
1460.9
117.1
185.5
27.4
115.8
30.5
143.4
31.9
180.1
30.3
146.8
do
do
do
do
355.2
411.9
312.7
86.2
11.9
5.2
404.2
422.3
320.5
288.2
290.2
106.9
181.3
108.6
181.6
530.0
533.5
558.8
198.7
331.3
194.9
213.3
326.8
338.6
345.5
154.8
112.6
42.2
165.9
115.8
50.1
160.5
108.9
51.7
160.5
102.8
57.6
159.5
106.6
52.9
306.3
298.7
337.3
333.3
329.1
8.2
316.2
17.1
342.4
297.9
A5. Foreign Trade
340.6
275.2
17.9
7.6
44.5
349.2
314.7
34.5
A6. National Income and Its Components
220.
280.
282.
286.
284.
288.
National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Net interest
290.
295.
292.
298.
293.
Gross saving (private and govt.)
Bosiness saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit2
Personal saving rate 2
2121.4 1 9 8 6 . 2 2 0 3 1 . 3 2 0 8 8 . 5 2 0 7 0 . 0 2 1 2 2 . 4
1 5 9 6 . 7 1 4 7 6 . 7 1518.1 1558.0 1 5 6 9 . 0 1 5 9 7 . 4
130.6
131.6
132.9
136.3
129.7
13'3.7
124.9
182.1 199. 5
196.8
189.4
200.2
177.9
169.3
31.0
156.5
31.2
165.4
31.5
175.3
32.0
185.3
402.0
404.5
326.7
394.5
325.8
402.0
334.6
86.4
-9.6
4.9
110.0
-42.5
6.2
111.4
-45.6
6.1
NA
1662.4
A7. Saving
Percent
279.1
76.3
-0.2
5.2
NA
103.6
-33.3
5.7
89.3
11.3
5.4
315.7
80. 7
4.4
4.7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tor those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles (including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of BCD. NA = not available, a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period. A.r. = annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA = inventory valuation adjustment. CCA = capital consumption adjustment. NIA = national income accounts.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
2
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: I = leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg = lagging; U = unclassified.
4
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1} placed at the terminal month of the span.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart Al. Composite Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (May)
T
P
(Aug.) (Apr.)
T
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
P
(Nov.) (Mar.)
T
P
T
910. Index of twelve teadinj indicators (wries 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 106)
f/
\Ji
;
/\ /
**
^*s* \f
*J
12
*
S+"\
I
-
'•*
-'i^ Xf* Ikv****
920. Index of four roughly coincidenttodicators(series 41, 47, 51, 57) ^ ^"^
*/*
120110100-
•f-
+2
"'"; ' "13
930t;;Wex of six laggin| indicators (series 62,70, 72,91,95.109)
140130-
0
-1
10U-
150-
220210200'
190'
180'
170.
160'
150'
140.
130120110100-
+15
9080-
70-
60'
50'
+5
1948 49 50
51 52 53 54
55
56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66
67 68 69 70
71 72
73
74 75 76
77 78
79 80 1981
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) In months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
lu
JANUARY 1981
KM)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Continued
(Nov.)(0ct.)
P
(July) (May)
T
P
(Aug.) (Apr.)
911
T
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
if*"*
P
T
P
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
T
adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5)
Index,- 1967=100
(series 12, 20, 29)
and purchasing (series 8, 32, 36, 92)
916. Profitability (series 19, 26, 80) ' tt
917. Money and financial flows (series 104, 106, 110)
60-
:
A
"'
:
1
' \/
•;«
'Z
-*
'.5
120-
,
110-
~*"
*^"v
/W/"~'
J
tf
1*\
^
:
• • " ,:
_^i
-n ,
w V ~ *j
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
""*"
A/^^X
^
x
H
/
V
"
/»^
»A
\
H
\A
vl
100908070-
X948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart Indicate length of leadi (-) and lags (+) In months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
JANUARY 1981
11
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
AI
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(JulyXMay)
P
T
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Dec.)(Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
«! t
8. Me* outers for iwijppei goods iM materials, 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
percent of companies receiving stonier deliveries (
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Current data for these series are shown on pages 61. 64, 65, and 66.
12
JANUARY
1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
private housint units (indec 1967
on hand 3* on order, 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. •§ bil. dol.)
104. Chaff in total mm assets, smoothed1 (percent) I IN
500 common stocks
=10)
supply-M2-in 1972 doDars (bii dol.)
L
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981
1
Thit series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, and 71.
JANUARY 1981
13
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
Employees on nonafricuttural payrolls
51. Personal nconw less
1972 dobn (ann. rate, biL
57. Manufacturing and bade sales,
1972 dollars (ML dbTJ
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
Currant data for thasa sarias are shown on pagas 62, 63, and 65.
14
JANUARY 1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
(Nov.)(0ct.)
P
T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
(weeks-inverted scale)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (fail, dol.)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (indei: 1967=100)
109. ftwrage prime rate charged by banks (percent)
11 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (tail, dd.)
Lf,Lg,Lg
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 66, 70, and 73.
JANUARY 1981
15
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
( D e c ) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
P
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
42 -I
41-
21 Average weekly overtime hours, production writers, manufactmiwg (tours)
Z Accession rate, mmbcturing (per 100 «¥•*«)
5. Average weekly nffial claims, State unenployinent insurance
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 enptoyees-inverted scale) JL,L,L
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
JANUARY
1981
Currant data for these series are shown on page 61.
16
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
1956
57
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
58
P
59
60
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
P
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Currant data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.
BUI
JANUARY
1981
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
ehensive E^jfeyment-Con]
60-i
5958-
90. Ratio, cMhn employment to total population of mH* age (percent)
fl2l
57
565554-
iCofjehensive upploymentj
37. Number unemployed, total (iii^Mi'i iiwilml state)
ftj»S\_.
^
xyxA^I1
/"
M AAV
f| /
V/
i'lr
^
1956
57
58
*/V
f^j^f^"
^A/^-^W*
'
lL.Le.Ul
\
^
K
•»
^r^
««
V
\ ^,A ^ >L I«
\X
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Current data for these serlet are shown on page 62.
18
JANUARY
1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
[Comprehensive Ottjut and Income]
52. Personal jncome in 1972 dollars (ana rate, fi|
fc"cll—•
900800700-
60011001000-
51. Personal income less bmsfo payments in 1972
(ana rate, bH. doL)
900800700-
600-
500-
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (ana rate, bi. dol)
^^ IC.C.CI
260240220200180'
160'
140J
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Current data for these series are shown on page 63.
KCII
JANUARY
1981
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr.)
F
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
F
F
T
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
F
T
T
-~,T
160-
llnt^strial Production 1
V:
/^
',.'
47. Industrial induction, total Jjindex: 1967=100) _ ^
nTccl
:
rt
150-
\/
^/"
140-
12
/*"" "• V\" y
" ^
/
130120-
V
nn-
74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(index 1967=100)
[Capacity Utilization!
iuu-
93 DBO.
IVite
of capacity utilization, manufacturing (BEA), Q (percent)
90-
—*^.~*^KI^
-
-~s^
'
^^~
^^*"**^
^ ^^*^^^^^
^
l <
^^^ >*^ '*^^-.
Vr ^
A.
rsfi
[UJ.
807n-
100-
8Z Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB), Q (percent) h c,u|
908070-
100-
84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials, Q (percent)
ao80-
70-
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
20
JANUARY 1981 ltd)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Mar)
T
90-i
80-
| Preps and Delivljsj
, * . * *
6. New orders, durable goods industries,current dollar (bil. dol.) •'. -.-
7060-
50-
7. New orders, durable goods industries. 1972 dollars
(bil. dol.)
40-
45-
8. New orders for consumer goods;
in 1972 doNars CHI dol.)
^
40-
fon
3530-
12
25-
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
v
^
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
/
140-
100-
60-
3Z Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent)
10075-
50-
251956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
!!€!»
JANUARY
1981
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
56. Manufacturing and trade sate ii current dote-*-
-
57. MarafaBHae and trade sates
in
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
(indec 1967=100)
59 Sate rf rriai dim* in 197? lUfcn Cfal rinlt
55. Personal consumption
(arm. rate, bil dol)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (1st Q 1966=100)
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
22
JANUARY 1981
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
F
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
I Position of Busgjfe Enterprises]
IBuartgss Investing Commitments I
20. Contracts and orders far pbnt and
h 1972 dobrs (hi dot)
10. Caincts and onfas for
dobn (M.
27. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries,
nondefeme, in 1972 dollars (bi. dot) X
1956 57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
1
This it a copyrighted Mries UMd by pwminlon; K may not be reproduced without written Darmlnlon from McGraw-Hill Information Sy«tem» Company, F.W. Dodge DMilon.
Currant data for tnata serin are shown on pages 65 and 66.
JANUARY 1981
23
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(DecHNov)
P
T
InvestnUft, Commitments-Con.|
1L New capital appropriations, manufacturing. Q (bi doL)
and«Mpnent,Q
Investment Expenditures|
69, Machnety and equipment sate jnd business
construction expenditures (ann. nte, bi.
76. Industrial production, business equipment
(index: 1967=100)
1956 57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
80
1981
JANUARY
1981
79
Currant data for UMM «ri« are shown on p»B" 66 and 67.
24
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.)(Feb.)
P
T
180160-
I Business Investment Expenditures—Con.[
140-
Nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil.
120-
86. Toy, Q
100-
88. Producers' durable equipment, Q
60-
20->
I Residential Construction Commitments and Investment!
28. New private housing units started, total (am. rate, mBare)
EuD
29. New building permits, pri
LLL
housing units (index: 1967-100)
60 J
89. Residential fixed investment total in 1972 dollars. 0
(am. rate, bil. dol.)
*~s\^
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
V
/
v
1956
70605040-
30-
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
BCII JANUARY
1981
25
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS —Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
(Aug.MApr.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
T
1972 dahn, Q (am. rate, bi
36. Net change in inventories on hand <
(ami. rate, bi doL; moving avg.-44kMry
3L Change in book value, manufacturing
38. Change in stocks of materials and supples on hand and on order,
nanuractumg (bi. doL; MCD moving a»|.-WiiiJTrLL]
1956 57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
1
Thlt Mriet i> a weighted 4-tarm moving avaraga (with wtighti 1,2,2,1) placad on ttu terminal month of th< ipan.
Currant date for theta iarlai ara thown on paga 68.
26
JANUARY
1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
(Aug,)(Apr)
P
T
(Apr.)(Feo.)
F T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
500450-
llnttliofies on Had and on Orderl
400350-
71. Book
current
300-
250-
70. Mairfaduring and trade inventories. 1972 dotos (fai. dol.)
20090858075706560555045-
65. Book v*e of manuhdureol
offinishedgoods (li. dol)
4035302520 J
77. Rstio, dtumVid itventonss
(ratio)
220 T
200180160140120-
78, Stocks of materials and supples on hand and on older, /
manufacturing (ML dol)
|L,i&L|i
_J
60-
40- 1
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Currant d*ta for these terlet are shown on page 68.
JANUARY 1981
27
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Mar.)
T
iSejjve Common-Prices |
in sensitive crude materials prices (percent; moving avg.—4-temv)
23. Spot market prices, raw industrials (index: 1917=100)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 194143=10)
16. Corporate profits after taxes,
(m rat*m dol.)
|Pr(j|
and Profit-logins
- -xyqi^i
-... JIMUM-.ii-
1& Corporate prafib after
(ana rate, biL dol)
80. Corporate profib after taxes with IVA andCCAdj,
1972 dollars. 0 (am. rate. biL dol.)
79. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj,
current dollars, Q (ana rate, biL dot)
[777
- ' I L.li.L
1956 57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
1
Thli series Is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
28
JANUARY 1981
IICII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
•,Au£ iiApr.i
F T
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Currant data for OMM Mfta an shown on ftftt a «n4 70.
JANUARY 1981
29
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T
(Apr) (Feb.)
F T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
63. Uni boor cat, priwte
(Mac 1967=100)
6& Labor cart (cure
) per unt rf pmttonBlk product
corporations, $ (dohrs)
62. Labor cast per unft of output,
61 Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, Q
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Currant data for these Mries are shown on page 70.
30
JANUARY 1981
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
P
T
T
Change in money supply M2
(percent MCD movinc
104, Chance in Mai iquid asseb (percent; moving
ILLLI
250240230220210200190900850800750-
106. Money supply-Ml-B-ii 1972 dote (hi. dnU
JfefctJ
106. Money sunpty-M2-in 1972 *fas
ILLLI
700-
1.20-1
1956 57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
' Thl» series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
BCII JANUARY
1981
31
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.
P
1956
57
T
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
CwrvM data tor th>M uries an tbovn on p>(*» 71 antf 72.
32
JANUARY
1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Apr.)(Feb
T
P
T
14 Cuncnt bUto of business
jiwrtid scate MOD tnoMlnt
39. Defnquancy rate, 30 days and ova, aretrw irafcfrnent km
(MRtnt-flMriad scale)
JOT
IBaMeserves
r?
91 Free tomes (hi. M-fiveted scate)
MMJ
94 MCHM' bank OORHIM from
theFaMRescnKiki)
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
Current daU for thai* Hrin are shown on p*t* 72.
JANUARY 1981
33
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
118. Seconday mtatjMfe on FHA
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
JANUARY
1981
Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.
34
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
67. Bank rate on short-tern bura hem (patent)
| Outstanding Debtj
66. Consumer uutaHinent cnot (bil. doL)
200180160140-
72. Commercial and Mudriat tans outstanding
weekly ityutii^ lanje uMinn,iil
—
banks (bi dot)
12010080-
60-<
16-
95. Rabo, consumer irabiroent credit to penontt income (percent)
1412101956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Currant diu for time Mrtes are shown on page 73.
JANUARY
1981
35
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes
950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span^—, 1-mo. span—)
951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span^—, 1-mo. span—)
TP,! n/s tni I r
95Z Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
961. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing—20 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
96Z Initial claims, State unemployment insurance—51 areas (percent declining 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls—172 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
36
JANUARY 1981
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.
T
P
T
100-
50-
09070-
50-
30-
100-
50-
0-
Spot mart* onto, an Mustriab-13 Mufti «M* (*™. spm—, 1-mo. span—)
100-
50-
0-
968. Stock prices, 500 common stodB-5342 Industries (ft-mo. span-*-', 1-mo. span—)
100-
50-
96ft Net prate, manufadirae-abrf TOO companies' (4^ gnu)
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
1
Thl« l> a copyrighted Mrta used by permiuion; It may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
BCII
JANUARY 1981
37
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
974. Number of empto»«ei, manufacturing and trade (442 span)1
'
..«S3l«_
975. Level of inventaia, manufacturing and trade (44J span)1
^
971. New orders, manufacturing (44J span)1
976. Selling prices, manufacturing (44J span)1
97Z Net profits, manufacturing and trade (442 span)1
977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (44J span)1
100-
"•• *•• »
90-
•*•
80-
' \*
7060-
1
978. Selling prices, ratai bade (44] span)
100-
a _ t»>f >*L.*'*-^ i«y .
90-
^^\jKri§^"~^^™^^^/
-V»T
80-
VK -^V
.»:
*?» i
1969
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
1969
70
71
72
73
74
7060-
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
1
1
This
It a
a copyrighted
copyrighted series used
used by permission; it n
This Is
may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion Indexes are based on surveys of about
1,400 business
business executives.
executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
38
JANUARY 1981
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
1-mo. sion
910c. Composite inda of
(series L 3, 8,12, 19,
32, 36, 92,
920c Composite index of foui
(series 41, 47, 51, §7)
930c Composite index of six
(series 62, 70 72,-91,
50c. GNP in constant (1972)
47c. Index of industrial
48c. Employee-hours in
Sic. Personal income less transfer
payments in 1972 dollars
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
NOTE: Data for thate parcant changes are shown occasionally In appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide" Indicates the latest Issue In which the data for each series
were published.
JANUARY 1981
39
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income
(Aug.) (Apr
T
223. Personal incortKiii current dobs
(anarafc
income n curait
mnfebiLdoL)
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Current data for th«M Mrin are shown on pagm 63 and 80.
40
JANUARY 1981
ltd!
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Aug.KApr.)
P
T
1956
57
58
( D e c ) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.)(Feb)
P
T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81.
BCII
JANUARY 1981
41
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
Annual rate; Mfen dotas (1972) |
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Currant data for these serin are shown on page 81.
42
JANUARY 1981
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
Won dobs (current) I
Annual rate, biikxi dobs (1972) |
267. State and local fNernments, Q
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
ItCII
JANUARY 1981
43
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I
NATIONAL MCOME AND PM
Chart AS. Foreign Trade
(Aug.) (Apr.)
F
1956
57
(Apr.)(Feb.)
T
58
P
59
60
T
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Currant data for thm wri«« an shown on page 82.
44
JANUARY 1981
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
|A
NATIONAL MCOME AND PROOUCT-Contmied
Chart A6. National Income and Its Con
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
30-
20-
10J
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
Current data for thew Mri« are ihown on page 82.
JANUARY 1981
45
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A7. Saving
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
1956
57
58
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
59
60
61
(Nov.)
P
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
(Mar.)
T
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Currant data for these terlet are ihown on pages 82 and 83.
46
JANUARY 1981
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
(Apr) (Feb.)
T
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
10-1
65-
60J
State and local giMffinent purchases
of goods and setvtes, Q
15-
purchases of goods and services, Q
10-
5-
0J
^247. Change in business inventories, Q
251. Net exports of foods and services, Q
I Percent of National Income |
64. Compensation of employees, Q
75-
70-
65J
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital coiBurnpuuii adjustments, Q
287. Corporate profits with inwntory valuation and
10-
5-
285. Rental income of persons with capital consunytion adjustment, Q
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
0J
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
not
JANUARY 1981
47
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Chart Bl. Price Movements
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
1969
70
(Nov.)
71
72
73
(Mar.)
74
75
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
76
77
78
79
80
1981
1969 70
(Nov.)
P
71
72
73
(Mar.)
T
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
Current data for time Mries are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.
JANUARY 1981
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart Bl. Price Movements—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
T
P
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
Percent changes at arma! rate
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
345. Average hourly compenssifiiw, all employee^
nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars;
340. Average hourly earnings of production workers,
private noflferm economy (current dollars)1
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
1
Adjusted for overtime (In manufacturing only) and Interindustry employment shifts and seasonallty.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.
BCII JANUARY
1981
49
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
F T
(Nov.)
P
h average, fcwrry compensation, all employees,
:345c Current-dollar compensation
(Mar.)
T
6-month spans (ana rate)
,, 1-quarter spats (ana rate) jj
4-quarier spans *
M6c. Real compensation
1-quarter span (ana rate)
Ffa|}BlUlH(l wage and benefit decisions, aH industries—
348. First year average changes, Q (arm, rate)-*349. Average changes over life of
contract, Q (ana rate)
370. Output per hour, all persons,
private business sector, Q
130120110-
J_
358. Output per hour, all persons, nonferm business sector, Q
10090-
370c. Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q
+ 10-1
• - . - > • ^gfrv' ^x^A j&y \i \: \
4xniarter spans V"^*'
l
\,
1956 57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
!
Adjusted for overtime (In manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.
One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make
them comparable to the annuallzed 6-month changes. See the current data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.
1
50
JANUARY 1981
ltd*
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C
I
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
Labor fwa participation rates (percent)-
453. Both sens J619 years oRge
Nurnber unemployed (millions)—
444. Males 2U years and over
447. Number unemployed,
workers (millions)
448. Number employed part-time for economic
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
fall-tit*
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
item
JANUARY
1981
51
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
(Aug.XApr.)
F T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.l ( N o v . )
P
T
+40-1
and local gowanent surplus or defai, Q
+30+20+100-10-
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
52
JANUARY 1981
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart 02. Defense Indicators
(Aug.MApr.)
F
(No»)
P
(Apr ) ( F e b )
T
P
T
(Mat )
T
,-a.g.
!956
57
58
59
60
JANUARY 1981
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
53
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
Measures of Defense Activity!
561. Manufacturers' unfiW orders, defense
580. Defense Departmat art flutoys, mKay fancftw and
assistance (M. dol; MCD moving
S8& Manufacturers'shipnMb, defense products
(ML dol; MCD mwif fifc-4-term)
2.5.
2.0-
1.5
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Current data tor time Mriei are shown on page 91.
54
JANUARY
1981
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
I Measures of Defense Activity—Con. |
1.81.61.41.21.0-
3.53.0-
2.52.01.5-
1.0-
0.5-J
160140-
[National DefensellKSchasesI
564. Federal
defense, Q (am
of goods and Mnices for national
1201008060-
40-
565. National defense pifdwes as a penent of 6HT, Q (percent)
10-|
987654-
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1981
Current data for these series are shown on page 91.
JANUARY
1981
55
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart El. Merchandise Trade
(Aug.MApr.)
P
1956 57
(Apr.HFeb
T
58
P
59
60
T
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
t9 for tlmv sorioc n shown on •••• 92.
56
JANUARY 1981
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
1956 57
T
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
NOTE: Annul took aro t>mm for MM porM prior to I960.
Cwmrt dMl for Ihno nrtat arc shom on pof* S3.
JANUARY 1981
57
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart Fl. Industrial Production
(Aug.MApr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
280-1
260240-
Industrial production—
220200-
728. Japan-^
180-
12
721. OECD European countries „
160140120-
1956
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
100-
722. United Kingdom
47. United States
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
Current data for theie urlei are «hown on page 94.
58
lANUAftY 1981
IICII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
(Nov.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
Chart F3. Stock Prices
(Mar.)
T
(Nov.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
Percent changes at annual rate
(Mar.)
T
6-month spans
Index: 1967=100
Stock prices—
Consumer priced-
19. Unfed State
74i West Germany
,J\.
735c. West Germany
V
+ 10-
10U -
~-
X'"" X
%TV
»
"VAvA
f^.
140120-
JUJTfXj*'~^L .
^^^
^-"--T.
l|
1969
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
Current data for thn* twin are shown on paget 95 and 96.
JANUARY 1981
78
79
80 1981
1969
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 1981
100«n.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A!
COMPOSITE MDEXES AND THHR COMPONENTS
|raarosfnIWHTSS
far
and
irnnnti
918. Impel of
UbsrtiHjiDtncalim ((series
1,3,1,12,19,
28, a, 32, 38,
52, 1M. IK) "
(!» = «»
». Met of
4*nCM|i
coincident md>
caters (seres
41, W, 51, $V>
(1967 =1«T)
93B. mdnof
t itaggnc nnV
OBIKS {series
82, 3H, 71,
91, «, IBS)
<W-M)
•
*M. «ain,
aHncnent
rndento
tagpnf mdra1
fl9S7=lW)
Lai line indicator subgnups
913. Harjmal
emptoyment
aojuSbnEnts
(series 1, t, 3,
5) 1
914. Capital
mwstment
coromrtinenb
'(series 12, HI.
(1967= lit)
WB-im>
1
2J)
91i. Proiit915. Inventory
abilrtf ((series
investment
is, at, Mf
and piirctemg
(serss *, 32, 3S,
82)
a»=i»)
(19fc7=10»)
917. Honey
and financial
lows (series
1M, IBS, UIJ)1
(1967 =1110)
tin
142.6
142.3
143.2
144.8
144.9
E>146.6
157.4
158.5
158.4
92-0
91.4
92.6
98.5
98.4
98.0
113.9
113.9
115.5
107.4
1D8.3
B>W8.8
93.2
92.2
92.2
148.6
145.6
144.5
1*0.3
141.4
141.6
144.1
145.6
145.0
161.8
162.5
163.6
89.1
89.6
88.6
94.6
97.3
96.7
113.6
113.3
113.9
107.8
107.3
106,6
92.3
91.7
91.8
146.1
146.9
148.4
141.2
140 1
140.1
145.4
145 0
144.9
164.8
166,4
370.6
W.2
96.4
87.1
84.9
106.1
105.?
96.4
113.6
112.9
114^0
91.7
92-0
91.8
148.6
148.3
146.2
137.8
135.6
135.2
145.1
145.0
145.2
175.9
179.1
177.9
82.5
81.0
81.6
96.6
96.1
96.3
112.7
112.0
112.4
103.3
102.3
102.3
90.8
90.3
90.6
143.9
140.4
138.3
ternary
February
rl34.7
rl34.2
H31.4
r!78.4
r!80.S
rl90.0
81.9
ten*
146.1
145.4
143.4
75.5
95.3
96.3
94.5
111.6
109.9
107.6
102.7
102.3
rlffll.7
90.9
91.2
89.4
137.2
r!38.6
r-136.3
April
Bay
140.7
137.9
136.6
r196.2
r183.5
r]68.5
T-71.7
rTS.l
90.3
88.3
rl04.1
103.0
rlOIJ.1
88.7
88.8
June
rl25.8
rlZZ.8
r!23.8
r131.7
r!27.3
rRl .1 I
.roi
3%Q ffi
Jiulj
r!28.1
136.7
136l6
T-138.8
r!6l!7
rl64.2
r84!s
T®4.5
92.8
94.0
rl4D.3
141.0
"141.9
rl68.2
175.3
B>*200.3
r«3.4
r80.4
pTO.8
r95.t)
T-95.-5
V96.0
January
htnanjr' ..'...'...
fcrcti
April
June
«,
*Angst
'"V '
ll
October
•hkmHhar
wuveniuei
Decembei
%.o
tm
September
f-134.9
October
November
December
rl35.7
137.7
'136.6
rSO.4
m
e
.3
98.2
yQ7t .1 i
on
?U* D
o
inf.
I UD.i\
107.1
109.2
r99.1
rlOl .2
r!07.2
rlD8.2
p!06.9
rl'02.6
r!03.3
pi 02. 9
91.5
(NA)
r!37!o
r!38.6
r-139.0
r!38.9
pi 37. 2
Ml
lamary
Feoriory
Hhrch
tune . . . . . . . . . . .
August
October
November
December
MOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted encept tor those, indicated by ®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by g); ior series that move counter to movements
m general business activity, current low allies an indicated toyff). Seres numbers are for identification only and do not retted series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of tte issue. The V mo.ate rawsc* >", prelmrnary; V, estimate!; V, anticipate!; ami 'W', not mailable
banks af koc sens an) staM «• PIBB U art 1L
*Tlje following series reached their high values before 1979: Series 910 (143.6) in October 1978, series 940 (106.6) in March 1977, series 913 (99.1) in Decenber 1978, series 914 (117.2) in October 1978, series 916 (97.2} in August 1977, and series 917 (151.1) in Noveaiber
1978.
"Excludes series 12 and 36 for which data are not yet available.
*Excludes series 57 for lAici data are not yet available.
*Excludes series 70 and 95 for which data are not yset available.
JANUARY 1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
I cdf
Vpor
month
L, L, L
L, C, L
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing 1
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production workers,
manufacturing1
(Hours)
(Hours)
L, L, L
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing 1
L, C, L
5. Average
weekly initial
claims, State
unemployment
insurance 1 2
(Per 100 em-
ployees)
(Thous.)
April
May
June
U, C, C
L, L, L
L, Lg, U
L, Lg, U
L, Lg, U
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing 1
4. Quit rate,
manufacturing
60. Ratio, helpwanted advertising to persons
unemployed 1
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising
in newspapers
48. Employeehours in nonagricultural
establishments
(Ratio)
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)
(Per 100 em-
(Per 100 em-
ployees)
ployees)
Revised 3
1979
January
February
March
Comprehensive
Employment
Job Vacancies
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Revised 3
40.6
3.7
3.7
3.7
4.2
4.1
4.0
344
334
347
0.9
0.9
0.9
2.2
0)2.2
2.1
0.805
0.785
0.780
161
158
156
168.70
168.89
170.04
39.3
40.2
40.1
2.9
3.4
3^3
4.0
A .nU
t
4.0
434
375
1.1
i
n
1 .U
1.2
2.1
2 /-i
.0
2.0
0.780
0.794
0.796
155
154
153
166.30
169.34
169.88
July
August
September
40.1
40.1
40.1
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.9
3.9
3.9
395
390
387
1.1
1.4
1.2
1.9
2.0
1.9
0.804
0.762
0.793
155
155
159
170.09
170.20
170.57
October
November
December
40.1
40.1
40.2
3.2
3.3
3.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
395
409
407
1.2
1.3
1.2
2.0
2.0
1.9
0.811
0.771
0.755
E>167
158
159
January
February
March
40.3
40.1
39.8
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.9
3.9
3.6
404
375
440
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.705
0.696
0.660
154
151
145
0)172.63
172.29
171.28
April
May
June
39.8
39.3
39.1
3.0
2.6
2.4
3.0
3.0
3.3
569
635
617
2.9
3.5
2.9
1.5
1.4
1.4
0,504
0.420
0.438
122
112
115
170.27
169.20
168.12
July
August
September
39.0
39.4
39.6
2.5
2.7
2.7
3.4
3.6
3.8
536
502
501
1.7
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.3
0.438
0.439
0.466
118
117
122
167.12
168.28
169.12
October
November
December
r39.7
r39.9
p40.2
2.8
2.9
3.9
3.6
439
399
p394
1.4
1.2
pi. 2
1.3
1.4
pi. 5
0.475
0.502
pO.497
127
134
pi 30
169.78
170.18
P171.45
40.6
40.6
orn
oOU
170.50
170.81
1 71 . 34
1980
P 3.1
p3.6
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
"The following series reached their high values before 1979: Series 1 (40.9) in April 1978, series 21 (3.8) in April 1978, series 2 (4.4)
in December 1978, series 5 (323) in October 1978, series 3 (0.8) in September 1978, and series 60 (0.827) in October 1978.
2
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
JANUARY 1981
61
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^J EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Employment— Continued
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Unemployment
C, C, C
L, C, U
U, Lg, U
42. Persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment
survey
40. Employees
in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction)
90. Ratio,
civilian employment to total
population of
working age
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
1979
Revised
2
Revised
L, Lg, U
L, Lg, U
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
37. Number of
persons unemployed, labor
force survey
43. Unemployment rate,
total
45. Average
weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs l
91. Average
duration of
unemployment
44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Weeks)
(Percent)
L, Lg, U
U,C, C
2
Revised
2
Revised
2
2
( )
Revised
2
(2)
January
February
March
92,781
93,088
93,318
88,858
89,109
89,455
26,363
26,377
26,537
59.13
59.27
59.31
5,958
5,993
5,956
5.8
5.9
5.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
11.2
11.3
11.7
1.2
1.2
1.3
April
May
June
93,061
93,364
93,562
89,386
89,708
89,909
26,473
26,522
26,557
59.07
59.16
59.24
5,918
5,776
E>5,718
5.8
5.6
5.6
2.9
2.8
11.0
10.9
10.5
1.2
1.2
1.1
July
August
September
93,995
93,706
94,189
90,054
90,222
90,283
26,582
26,528
26,554
59.43
59.21
H>59.43
5,738
6,057
5,971
D5.6
5.9
5.8
October
November
December
94,153
94,123
94,458
90,441
90,552
90,678
26,554
26,504
26,590
59.24
59.21
59.30
6,132
6,104
6,272
5.9
5.9
6.0
94,421
D 94, 488
94,291
91,031
H>91,186
91,144
0)26,715
26,623
26,476
59.18
59.18
58.99
6,500
6,454
6,543
6.2
3.2
6.2
6.3
r3.2
r3.4
April
May
June
93,963
93,764
93,548
90,951
90,468
90,047
26,121
25,745
25,422
58.68
58.54
58.26
7,202
7,944
7,811
6.9
7.6
7.5
r4.2
July
August
September
93,732
93,793
93,781
89,867
90,142
90,384
25,163
25,312
25,476
58.30
58.23
58.27
8,021
7,942
7,800
7.6
7.6
7.4
October
November
December
93,887
93,999
93,888
r90,710
r90,917
p91,122
r25,636
r25,804
p25,916
58.21
58.22
58.11
7,961
7,946
7,785
7.6
7.5
7.4
r2.8
Dr2.8
2.9
2.9
r3.0
3.1
3.1
[H}1.0
1.1
1.1
D10.3
"10.6
10.6
10.5
10.6
10.6
rl.l
rl.2
1.2
1980
January
February
March
3.7
4.6
r4.4
4.3
r4.3
4.1
3.8
p3.5
1.3
1.2
1.3
10.6
10.7
11.0
11.2
10.6
11.7
rl.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
11.8
12.5
13.0
r2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
13.3
13.6
13.5
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
*Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
62
JANUARY
1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^^ PRODUCTION AND INCOME
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
Industrial Production
Comprehensive Output and Income
c, c, c
50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars
C, C, C
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C, C, C
52. Constant
(1972) dollars
51. Personal
income, less
transfer payments, in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, mfg.,
and construction in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Persona income
223. Current
dollars
month
C, C, C
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C, C, C
47. Index of
industrial
production,
total
(1967 = 100)
C, C, C
73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures
(1967 = 100)
C, L, L
74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures
(1967 = 100)
C, C, C
49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1979
January
February
March
1,479*.9
April
May
1 ,473\4
June
rl,845.9
1,863.0
1,884.8
1,184.0
1,185.1
1,190.7
rl,033.9
1,035.8
1,040.8
251.2
251.1
D252.3
rl,891.9
1 ,903.4
1,'923!5
rl.188.4
1 ,188.1
T,193!2
rl, 037.1
251.1
1 037.5
rl!o43!s
OAQ 0
L.Lry . L.
1,954.0
1,974.8
1,987.9
1,202.5
1,206.4
1,203.3
1,045.2
1,048.4
1,046.3
245.1
152.0
152.5
147.0
147.2
H>148.6
161.6
162.9
164.0
151.1
144.5
i co 7
1 OL. . /
1
ZL7
£
1^
/ .D
162,6
i
AQ ,£D
1 DO
247.9
153.0
147.6
163.7
247.2
147.2
144.4
145.9
164.8
165.2
165.4
673\6
244.4
153.0
152.1
152.7
673^3
D153.5
July
August
September
1,488.2
October
November
December
1,490.'6
2,011.3
r2,032.7
2,051.8
1,205.8
1,209.9
1,211.9
1,049.0
1,053.6
1,055.3
243.2
242.0
242.0
152.7
152.3
152.5
146.0
145,2
144.8
164.8
165.0
165.3
2,077.2
2,086.4
2,101.0
1,216.2
1,207.4
1,199.2
[0)1,056.5
1,050.9
1,044.0
240.9
239.3
236.2
152.7
152.6
152.1
144.7
144.1
143.4
D166.0
E>l,5oi".9
April
May
June
2,102.1
2,114.1
2,127.1
1,194.4
1,195.1
1,195.0
1,037.6
1,036.0
1,035.1
231.7
1S463!3
228.0
224.9
148.3
144.0
141.5
138.4
133.3
129.9
161.6
158.0
155,3
July
August
September
1.47K9
2,161.2
2,179.4
2,205.7
1,206.7
1,207.4
1,208.6
1,033.8
1,036.2
1,036.9
224.2
226.4
228.0
140.4
141,8
H44.1
128.3
129.4
131.7
154.7
156.9
r!60.3
October
November
December
pi ,490.1
r2,235.3
r2,260.4
B>p2,281.5
rl,216.2
rl,222.5
[H>pl,225.3
rl,045.4
rl,052.6
pi ,056.0
r229.7
r232.0
p233.0
H46.8
H49.2
r!35.6
H38.8
P139.9
r!61.9
r!63.6
p!65.2
681 ! 8
T
boy .
1
CCQ
1980
January
February
March
pi 50. 7
165.9
164.7
H>682!i
658 j'
657*5
p667.5
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
JANUARY 1981
63
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^9 PRODUCTION AND INCOME-Continued
U| CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES
Capacity Utilization
Orders and Deliveries
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
L, C, U
83. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(BEA)
82. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(FRB)
L, C, U
84. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
materials
L, L, L
L, L, L
Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars
7. Constant
(1972) dollars
L, L, L
L, L, L
L, Lg, U
L, L, L
8. New orders
for consumer
goods and
materials in
1972 dollars
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries ®
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
E>'84
78.68
80.43
81.65
44.16
44.68
[H)45.04
H)38.94
38.43
38.63
*83
41.36
41.75
40.98
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
1979
January
February
March
E)86!9
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
H>88.'4
36.74
36.88
36.43
4.73
1.52
3.23
252.43
253.96
257.19
76
76
70
69
77
B)78
85!9
87!5
75.93
77.04
76.03
85^3
87!2
74.58
74.76
77.65
39.82
39.81
40.91
35.95
35.44
35.93
0.71
0.40
3.45
257.90
258.30
261.74
60
55
51
84*.4
S6'.3
76.52
75.90
77.20
39.71
39.15
39.43
35.60
34.34
34.19
0.98
2.15
3.01
262.72
264.87
267.88
50
47
49
83.*4
85.5
81.47
81.02
77.55
40.61
39.93
38.28
36.10
36.00
33.52
3.52
1.86
1.62
271.40
273.26
274.88
48
42
45
78^7
72.42
67.33
66.45
35,62
33.12
32.38
30.35
28.95
29.06
0.21
7J'.9
-2,12
-2,60
275.10
272.98
270.38
40
32
28
15.1
74!9
74.23
72.23
78.96
35.77
r34.58
37.82
31.71
r31.68
33.26
1.68
0.17
2.39
272.06
272.23
274.62
32
34
39
p79!9
80,69
r81.05
DP82.56
38.23
r38.12
p38.28
35.10
r34.07
p33.65
1.19
p79J
rl.31
p3.03
275.81
r277.12
[H)p280.15
44
45
47
'82
'si
5.89
234.72
241.82
247.71
5.91
D7.10
1980
January
February
March
'so
April
May
June
*76
July
August
September
October
November
December
p76
(NA)
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
64
JANUARY 1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
C, C, C
C, C, C
56. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
C, L, C
75. Index of industrial production, consumer
goods
(1967 = 100)
C, L, U
U, L, U
Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises
Consumption and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month
H
U CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Contmued
59. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
L, C, C
55. Personal
, consumption
expenditures,
automobiles
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
58. Index of
consumer,
sentiment l ©
L, L, L
12. Index of
net business
formation 1
L, L, L
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
(IstQ
1966 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(Number)
1979
January
February
March
274,091
274,844
283,741
160,460
159,177
E>164,058
151.3
151.8
0)153.4
71,293
71,266
72,045
45,381
44,850
44,944
69.*2
72.1
73.9
68.4
131.3
132.1
132.5
42,410
42,302
42,761
April
May
June
276,406
286,413
283,772
157,285
161,807
158,316
149.3
152.2
152.1
71,606
72,292
72,093
44,229
44,405
43,932
62^9
66.0
68.1
65.8
130.9
130.5
130.9
43,034
43,895
43,044
July
August
September
289,994
293,167
r296,761
159,751
160,273
160,068
151.2
148.7
150.0
73,121
74,871
76,666
44,316
45,130
0)45,771
65^0
60.4
64.5
66.7
131.8
130.3
132.5
44,655
42,911
44,687
October
November
December
r298,452
r298,949
r302,117
159,757
158,205
158,718
150.0
149.1
148.6
75,583
76,421
77,150
44,803
44,954
44,881
64!2
62.1
63.3
61.0
131.9
131.4
133.9
46,478
44,811
43,579
January
February
March
r312,458
r310,181
r305,165
161,600
160,189
154,500
147.9
148.4
148.6
79,464
77,993
76,534
45,695
44,365
42,972
H>7i'.6
67.0
66.9
56.5
131.0
129.8
125.8
44,447
44,583
42,615
April
May
June
r294,998
292,478
294,203
150,706
147,103
147,805
145.3
142.4
142.1
75,011
74,587
76,001
41,859
41,460
42,013
5CK7
52.7
51.7
58.7
120.5
117.8
114.8
42,461
41,974
39,746
July
August
September
304,154
308,019
r318,321
152,027
148,342
155,849
142.0
142.7
r!44.3
78,287
78,770
80,087
43,086
42,903
43,011
58'. 7
62.3
67.3
73.7
115.3
117.7
120.6
44,058
43,266
46,488
October
November
December
r325,838
0>p329,140
r!56,105
p!54,255
H46.6
r!48.1
p!48.4
r80,609
H>r81,933
p80,830
r43,060
r43,535
p42,654
75.0
76.7
64.5
118.8
el!8.8
0)47,225
p65'.5
1980
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
Series 58 reached its high value (89.1) in 2d quarter 1977; series 12 reached its high value (134.8) in October 1978.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
JANUARY 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
65
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Business Investment Commitments
L, L, L
L, L, L
Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment
Year
and
month
10. Current
dollars
20. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
L, L, L
L, L, L
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
capital goods industries, nondefense
24. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
L, C, U
9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings 1
27. Constant
(1972) dollars
Square feet of
floor space
(Bil. dol.)
(Millions)
Square meters of
floor space 2
(Millions)
U, Lg, U
C, Lg, Lg
11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1979
January
February
March
26.16
25.48
0)28.10
15.40
15.17
[H)16.99
21.23
22.48
23.60
12.72
13.56
H>14.60
88.51
[H>105.49
102.77
April
May
June
25.36
22.67
24.66
14.76
13.14
14.32
20.60
21.13
21,70
12t24
12,34
12.78
93.59
87.09
84,08
8.69
8,09
7.81
2K20
July
August
September
25.82
23.83
24.52
14.55
13.38
13.69
21.23
21.08
21,58
12,20
12.00
12,21
88.48
83.85
92.17
8,22
7.79
8,56
22 '.69
October
November
December
24.14
27.42
r27.50
13.52
15.49
H5.34
21.07
21.75
22,28
12,01
12.73
12.81
93,15
84.13
80.79
8.65
7.82
7,51
23!28
January
February
March
27.35
24.56
26.27
15.01
13.47
14.07
D23.86
21.48
22.59
13,34
12.02
12.35
104,43
85.46
82,84
9.70
7.94
7.70
April
May
June
24.20
21.18
22.92
12.97
rll.52
12.60
22.16
19.59
19.95
12.02
10.79
11.26
72.90
62.72
71,19
6,77
5.83
6,61
25^86
6,71
6,13
6.17
p24'.93
6,63
8.37
9.00
8.22
E)9.80
2l! 61
67! 63
9.55
69!95
73.45
76.66
1980
July
August
September
24.86
23.96
23.87
H3.71
r!2.58
12.89
21.61
19.37
20.86
12.24
10.50
11.53
72.28
65.99
66.40
October
November
December
23.82
r27.47
p26.74
12.36
r!4.45
p!4.05
20.62
r21.85
p21.82
10.92
rll.95
pll.85
71.38
90.12
96,87
D 29^50'
84.09
87^94
H>p89.84
(NA)
(NA)
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
x
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
2
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
66
JANUARY 1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
[fjj
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
FIXED
CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued
Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment
Business Investment Expenditures
C, Lg, Lg
C, Lg, Lg
C, Lg, U
61. Business
expenditures
for new plant
and equipment,
total
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business
construction
expenditures
76. Index of
industrial production, business
equipment
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
(1967 = 100)
C, Lg, C
Lg, Lg, Lg
C, Lg, C
Nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars
86. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
87. Structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
28. New
private housing
units started,
total 1
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
L, L, L
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits 1
(1967 = 100)
L, L, L
89. Residential
fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars 1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1979
January
February
March
255.55
256.93
256.86
268.78
168.2
169.3
171.0
isi.'i
45^8
ns.'s
1,727
1,469
1,800
119.1
120.4
136.7
60'.8
265!24
261.20
268.02
265.92
168.7
171.2
171.2
isiia
48." 6
113!2
1,750
1,801
1,910
125.0
133.1
132.4
59J
July
August
September
273.' 15
274.41
278.61
280.10
171.3
171.6
173.4
E>166'.4
49.4
[fi>117.'6
1,764
1,788
1,874
126.3
131.0
136.9
5EL6
October
November
December
284! 30
285.29
279.46
287.54
172.3
172.6
174.1
isi'.i
H>5C).*7
11 3.' 5
1,710
1,522
1,548
119.4
104.0
100.7
58.1
297.92
303.20
300.05
174.9
176.0
[H)176. 1
165.0
50." 5
nils
1,419
1,330
1,041
102.7
291.89
294.36
291.99
293.49
292.17
174.2
171.9
169.8
156J
48.7
107^4
1,030
906
1,223
63.7
66.6
87.1
July
August
September
D296.23
293.84
285.47
303.11
170.1
170.3
r!70.5
r!55*.5
4e!s
108.' 8
1,265
1,429
1,541
109.9
126.3
October
November
December
a294*.95
r303.52
0>p304.37
H71.8
173.4
p!74.9
pisiis
p46*.6
April
May
June
1980
January
February
March
April
May
June
(NA)
pi 07.' 7
rl,557
rl,563
pi, 548
94.3
78.2
54.*2
43J
99.8
107.7
109.5
44!7
p49.8
99.8
1981
January
February
March
a31o!59
April
May
a323!84
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
1
The following series reached their high values before 1979: Series 28 (2,182) in April 1978, series 29 (160.2) in June 1978, and series
89 (63.3) in 2d quarter 1978.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
JANUARY 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
[fj INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Inventories on Hand and on Order
Inventory Investment
L, L, L
L, L, L
L, L, L
L, L, L
30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
36. Change in inventories on
hand and on order, 1972 dollars
31. Change
in book value
of mfg. and
trade inventories, total
38. Change
in stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Monthly
data 1
Smoothed
data 1 2
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Bil dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg. Lg
Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars
(Bil dol.)
70. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
L, Lg, Lg
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished
goods, book
value
77. Ratio,
constantdollar inventories to
sales, mfg.
and trade
78. Stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.
(Bil dol.)
(Ratio)
(Bil dol.)
1979
January
February
March
April
May
June
28.12
14.56
13.64
19.57
21.22
19.68
56.8
47.2
39.8
H)5.09
15*.4
3.70
2.98
385.38
389.31
392.63
250.98
251.38
252.24
64.70
65.51
65.88
1.56
1.58
1.54
173.60
177.30
180.29
E>18".4
28.62
-1.31
20.72
18.86
16.30
14.83
68.1
43.7
57.3
4.33
0.52
2.59
398.31
401.94
406.72
253.80
254.71
256.18
67.08
67.22
68.08
1.61
1.57
1.62
184.62
185.14
187.73
24.47
15.32
15.26
0)82.3
r42.6
rl6.0
1.24
2.21
1.74
413.58
r417.13
r418.46
258.92
[H)259.42
257.63
68.62
68.95
69.87
1.62
1.62
1.61
188.97
191.18
192.93
July
August
September
Y.6
October
November
December
-0.7
-4.33
-8.72
-13.45
-2.88
-9.54
-10.12
r51.0
r38.9
rlO.l
2.24
2.52
1.51
r422.71
r425.95
r426.80
258.18
258.13
257.32
69.75
69.94
70.53
1.62
1.63
1.62
195.16
197.69
199.20
-CK9
-9.97
r-16.14
r4.19
-9.77
r-11.95
r-10.25
r55.5
r44.8
r47.5
2.48
2.54
1.21
r431.42
r435.16
r439.11
r256.65
r256.01
r256.48
71.78
72.76
73.94
1.59
1.60
1.66
201.67
204.22
D205.43
r-3.26
r-26.74
r-23.52
r-6.19
r-6.84
r-13.22
r72.7
-0.36
-2.85
-2.32
r445.17
445.80
447.03
r257.89
r257.12
r256.61
75.76
76.21
76.61
-2.50
r-6.13
rO.65
r-17.71
r-14.15
r-6.69
29.7
29.3
31.4
1.37
449.51
451.95
454.57
r 2 56.. 6 7
r256.27
r256,12
77.00
[H)77.19
76.76
rl.64
201.27
199.76
200.63
r5.03
p-7.61
r-6.40
p-0.40
r456.53
0>p458.24
r256.05
p255.60
76.43
76.81
rl.64
pi. 66
202.07
p202.92
(NA)
(NA)
2.46
-21.16
8.90
1980
January
February
March
April
May
June
i!s
July
August
September
-5.0
October
November
December
p-0.2
(NA)
(NA)
r7.6
14.8
-1.50
0.87
r23.6
p20.4
pO.85
(NA)
(NA)
1.44
(NA)
(NA)
205.07
202.22
199.90
rl.71
D1.75
1.74
1.69
1.73
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
Series 36 (monthly) reached its high value (35.22) in March 1978; series 36 (smoothed) reached its high value (26.60) in May 1978.
2
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
JANUARY 1981
(NA)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
|Q PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Minor Economic
Process
Sensitive Commodity Prices
Timing Class
L, L, L
U, L, L
92. Change in sensitive crude
materials prices
Year
and
month
23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrials ®
Smoothed
data 3
Monthly
data 2
(Percent)
Stock
Prices
(Percent)
(1967 = 100)
L, L, L
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks @
(1941-43 = 10)
Profits and Profit Margins
L, L, L
L, L, L
Corporate profits after taxes
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
18. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, C, L
L, C, L
Corporate profits after taxes
with IVA and CCAdj '
79. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
80. Constant
(1972) dollars 2
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
22. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) to total
corporate
domestic income
(Percent)
1979
January
February
March
1.77
2.92
3.04
1.45
1.75
2.27
258.3
273.5
288.5
99.71
98.23
100.11
164!6
loi.'o
i>113.'4
70*1
-0.35
2.85
2.93
2.22
1.86
1.83
294.5
293.8
293.9
102.07
99.73
101.73
164^6
98*. 9
11CK2
66.9
1K5
July
August
September
1.63
1.09
3.47
2.14
2.18
1.97
297.3
298.1
297.3
102.71
107.36
108.60
173!6
loi.'s
iii!i
65!7"
ii!i
October
November
December
2.63
1.92
2.33
2.23
2.54
2.48
307.7
304.0
309.6
104.47
103.66
107.78
168 '.2
96 '.7
102!2
59!i
ii!i
3.43
2.99
2.43
H>2.74
316.2
H>322.5
316.9
110.87
115.34
104.69
D182'.9
H>102!6
loe'.o
60. 'i
n'.'s
301.9
278.5
267.5
102.97
107.69
114.55
146*.5
80.' 3
97.*8
54! 1
9.*4
277.6
292.1
298.3
119.83
123.50
126.51
159J
85.'5
99.4
54.'6
rl6.'6
300.8
304.7
298.4
130.22
0)135.65
133.48
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
April
May
June
Dili 9
1980
January
February
March
-1.05
April
May
June
-0.65
-0.22
0.09
2.35
1.11
-0.10
-0.45
July
August
September
2.63
0.29
rO.44
r4.15
rO.94
rl.73
October
November
December
2.89
1.75
0.66
r2.45
r2.71
2.35
1981
January
February
March
"293.5
5
133.30
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
1
2
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
Series 92 (monthly) reached its high value (4.95) in February 1977; series 80 reached its high value (71.0) in 3d quarter 1977. 3Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1)
5
placed on the terminal month of the span.
''Average for January 6, 13, and 20.
Average for January 7, 14, and 21.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
JANUARY 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
PI PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued
Minor Economic
Process
U, L, L
L, L, L
L, L, L
81. Ratio,
profits (after
tavoc^
laxes; with
wiin IUA
IVM
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income ' 2
15. Profits (after
taxes) per dollar
of sales, all
manufacturing
corporations
26. Ratio, price
to unit labor
cost, nonfarm
business sector 2
(Percent)
(Cents)
(1967-100)
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Cash Flows
Profits and Profit Margins— Continued
L, L, L
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share
L, L, L
Net cash flo w, corporate
34. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
35. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
63. Index of
unit labor cost,
private business
sector
68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial
corporations
62. Index of
labor cost per
unit of output,
manufacturing
64. Compensation of employees as a percent
of national
income
(1967 = 100)
(Dollars)
(1967 = 100)
(Percent)
1979
January
February
March
Y.5
B>5'.9
94.*7
247'.4
147!9
205!9
1.052
170.2
171.6
171.7
74.'l
April
May
June
6.*9
5*.6
94.'i
252!b
147.'i
211. '7
1.079
176.4
173.9
174.6
74! 5
July
August
September
6.3
5^8
94!2
266. 'l
152.'5
217!6
1.104
175.7
177.3
177.7
74 .'3
October
November
December
5\7
s.'i
94.' 6
262!9
148.'6
221 .'l
1.135
178.9
180.0
181.7
74 '.7
January
February
March
5.5
s!e
93.*6
0)280.' 7
i>155*.2
227!5
1 . i 58
182.9
184.9
186.8
74*.6
April
May
June
s'.'b
i!i
93.3
246J
132^2
235*.6
1.193
190.5
194.8
198.6
July
August
September
r5.4
p4*.6
93!9
262 '.9
138.*6
H)240.4
0)1.203
October
November
December
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1980
(NA)
(NA)
D75'.8
200.6
201.4
r200.7
75^3
r200.1
r200.8
H>p201.7
(NA)
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
^VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
Series 81 reached its high value (8.8) in 3d quarter 1977; series 26 reached its high value (98.1) in 3d quarter 1975.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
70
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
JANUARY
1981
BUI
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| MONEY AND CREDIT
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Money
L, L, L
85. Change in
money supply
Year
and
month
(M 1 D "\
(Ml-D)
L, L, L
102. Change
in money
eiinnlv; ^ M 9 \ 1
supply (Mz;
104. Change in t otal liquid assets
105. Money
supply (Ml-B)
in 1 Q79
in ia/z
dollars 1
Smoothed
data 2
Monthly
data
(Percent)
1979
L, L, L
L, C, U
Revised
January
February
March
(Percent)
(Percent)
3
Revised
3
Revised
(Percent)
3
0.06
0.19
0.89
0.41
0.46
0.91
0.60
0.81
1.57
1.30
1.02
0.58
1.13
1.14
1.06
1.43
July
August
September
0.94
0.66
0.60
0.85
0.91
0.74
0.74
0.89
October
November
December
0.16
0.37
0.62
0.49
0.44
0.59
0.36
0.80
April
May
June
-0.14
Credit Flows
Velocity of Money
Revised
L, L, L
Revised
106. Money
supply (M2)
m
107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
(Ml-B)
i 079
iy/£
dollars1
(Ratio)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
3
C, C, C
3
Revised
3
Revised
C, Lg, C
L, L , L
108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(M2)
(Ratio)
3
(3)
n.3i2
1.02
0.92
0.85
219.8
217.8
21 7.5
858.5
852.9
852.0
6.469
0.95
1.09
1)1.17
218.8
216.3
216.9
852.6
848.8
849.6
1.14
1.05
1.02
216.6
215.9
214.6
0.44
0.27
0.69
0.97
0.82
0.59
0.57
0.84
0.44
0.68
1.02
0.68
-0.26
0.86
1.53
1.57
1.24
0.73
1.318
1 . 321
100.84
82.15
88.18
6.397
1.313
1.313
1.312
75.24
91.96
94.76
847.9
847.0
843.4
6.430
1.322
1.324
1.323
97.36
84.01
87.42
212.9
211.5
210.2
839.2
834.4
829.2
6.487
1.332
1.340
1.345
H>103.69
77.12
51.59
0.51
0.67
0.80
208.1
206.9
203.9
822.5
818.2
810.2
6.589
rl.353
rl . 348
rl.352
87.55
67.51
69.29
0.46
0.77
0.58
0.76
0.68
0.62
199.5
197.7
198.4
800.7
800.7
805.0
6.612
1.356
rl.352
rl.340
50.12
16.79
0.70
1.14
1.07
0.64
0.74
0.89
200.5
202.8
203.4
817.7
822.2
81-9.9
6.559
rl.340
rl.335
rl.341
43.45
66.12
75.97
0.60
0.95
el. 27
eO.76
eO.96
eO.93
203.4
202.9
p!99.3
817.8
816.9
p810.3
[H)p6.638
rl.349
1.353
E>pl.362
93.40
p80.59
1 .18
Dl.43
1980
January
February
March
-0.05
April
May
June
-1.25
-0.05
1.35
July
August
September
1.07
Dl.82
October
November
December
1.32
0.98
0.73
0.74
0.88
-0.75
pO.23
8.18
(NA)
1981
January
February
March
4
0.97
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
lr
The following series reached their high values before 1979: Series 102 (1.64) in June 1975, series 105 (224.3) in January 1978, and series 106 (869.1) in January 1978. 2Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the
3
span.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
^Average for weeks ended January 7 and 14.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
JANUARY 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
L, L, L
112. Net change
in bank loans
to businesses
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
113. Net
change in
consumer installment
credit *
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised
1979
L, L, L
L, L, L
Bank Reserves
Credit Difficulties
Credit Flows-Continued
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
L, L, L
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures l®
(Mil. dol.)
L, L, L
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, consumer installment loans
(Percent)
D2.12
2.31
2.33
347,904
5.76
182.22
177.09
187.76
April
May
June
39.62
31.99
23.23
45.71
37.99
31.33
355,864
242.76
200.45
273.17
2.43
2.37
2.45
July
August
September
40.55
30.54
43.36
33.79
32.77
48.10
1)414,400
212.20
287.44
186.20
2.45
2.47
2.59
October
November
December
3.72
-21.10
36.40
32.33
24.40
309,748
395.75
184.31
138.02
2.45
2.50
2.64
352,792
243.15
190.79
274.24
2.37
2.32
2.53
171,740
428.15
381.15
436.68
2.53
2.64
2.74
39.31
33.07
4.55
93. Free
reserves ®
(Mil. dol.)
L, Lg, U
94. Member
bank borrowing from the
Federal
Reserve ®
(Mil. dol.)
L, Lg, Lg
119. Federal
funds rate (u)
(Percent)
C, Lg, Lg
114. Treasury
bill rate ®
(Percent)
2
50.57
50.64
40.20
January
February
March
L, U, U
Interest Rates
-692
-764
-742
994
973
999
10.07
10.06
10.09
9.35
9.27
9.46
-899
897
1,777
1,396
10.01
10.24
10.29
9.49
9.58
9.05
10.47
10.94
11.43
9.26
9.45
-1,339
1,179
1,097
1,344
10.18
-1,750
-1,751
-1,079
2,022
1,906
1,473
13.77
13.18
13.78
11.47
11.87
12.07
1,241
1,655
0)2,824
13.82
14.13
17.19
12.04
12.81
15.53
2,455
1,018
p365
17.61
10.98
14.00
9.47
9.15
7.00
p390
p687
9.03
9.61
8.13
9.26
-1,490
-1,175
-989
-904
1980
January
February
March
0)55.48
35.83
-1.52
April
May
June
2.47
-38.96
2.14
32.72
28.84
7.85
-20.05
-32.12
-24.54
July
August
September
13.06
30.23
29.86
-14.39
October
November
December
r29.81
r35.90
p41.82
12.66
445.69
345.41
1,002.94
2.77
2.94
2.70
8.42
359.24
(NA)
5.87
10.07
(NA)
p283,032
(NA)
(NA)
-999
-1,465
0)-2,680
-2,261
-835
p-114
p28
p-356
p-1,086
pi ,244
10.87
p-1,018
p-1,201
p-1,587
pi, 335
p2,156
pi, 617
12.81
rl5.85
0)18.90
"-537
"1,289
"19.68
10.32
11.58
13.89
0)15.66
1981
January
February
March
3
7.14
5
14.61
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 34.
2
Series 113 reached its high value (51.37) in June 1978; series 14 reached its high value (96.99) in September 1977.
See "New Features
and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 3Average for weeks ended January 7 and 14.
''Average for weeks ended January 7, 14, and 21.
Average for weeks ended January 2, 8, 15, and 22.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
72
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
JANUARY 1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
JU MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Outstanding Debt
Interest Rates— Continued
Lg, Lg, Lg
C, Lg, Lg
U, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
116. Corporate
bond yields ®
115. Treasury
bond yields ®
117. Municipal
bond yields ®
118. Secondary
market yields
on FHA
mortgages ©
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business loans
®
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Year
and
month
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks ©
66. Consumer
installment
credit
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
Revised
1979
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large
commercial
banks
(Mil. dol.)
95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
to personal
income
(Percent)
Revised 1
1
12^27
11.75
11.75
11.75
269,107
273,327
276,677
134,984
137,740
138,220
14.58
14.67
14.68
12^34
11.75
11.75
11.65
280,486
283,652
286,263
141,522
144,188
146,124
14.83
0)14.90
14.88
12131
11.54
11.91
12.90
289,079
291,810
295,818
149,503
152,048
155,661
14.79
14.78
14.88
15!81
14.39
15.55
15.30
298,851
301,545
303,578
155,971
154,213
154,592
14,86
14.83
14.80
15.'o7
15.25
15.*63
18.31
306,305
308 [ 708
[H>309,362
159,215
162,201
162,074
14.75
14.*80
14.72
13.45
11.99
11.85
0)17!75
19.77
16.57
12.63
307,691
305,014
302,969
162,200
159,033
159,211
14.64
14.43
14.24
8.13
8.67
8.94
12.39
13.54
14.26
nise
11.48
11.12
12.23
301,770
302,259
303,314
160,299
162,818
165,306
13.96
13.87
13,75
9.11
9.56
14.38
14.47
14.08
15^71
13.79
16.06
H>20.35
304,016
304,855
r!67,790
170,782
I>pl74,267
13.60
p!3.49
January
February
March
9.47
9.52
9.65
8.43
8.43
8.45
6.47
6.31
6.33
10.24
10.24
10.26
April
May
June
9.69
9.82
9.51
8.44
8.55
8.32
6.29
6.25
6.13
10.61
10.49
July
August
September
9.47
9.57
9.87
8.35
8.42
8.68
6.13
6.20
6.52
10.46
10.58
11.37
October
November
December
11.17
11.52
11.30
9.44
9.80
9.58
7.08
7.30
7.22
12.41
12.24
January
February
March
11 .65
13^23
14.08
10. 03
7.35
12 60
1K55
8.'l6
(NA)
11.87
9.17
D14.63
April
May
June
13.36
11.61
11.12
10.83
8.63
7.59
7.63
July
August
September
11.48
12.31
12.74
10.53
10.94
October
November
December
13.17
14.10
0)14.38
11.20
11.83
Dll.89
(NA)
(NA)
1980
9.82
9.40
9.83
1)10.20
(NA)
(NA)
1981
January
February
March
2
13.95
2
11.79
3
9.62
5
"20.19
174,862
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
x
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page Hi.
4
January 2, 8, 15, and 22.
Average for January 1 through 27.
JANUARY 1981
2
Average for weeks ended January 2, 9, 16, and 23.
5
Average for weeks ended January 7 and 14.
3
Average for weeks ended
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104,
952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 70, 72, 91,
95, 109)
951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)
961. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (20
industries)
106)
month
1-month
span
6-month
span
January
February
March
58.3
41.7
66.7
33.3
41.7
41.7
April
May
June
25.0
45.8
41.7
July
August
September
October
November
December
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
963. Number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls
(172 industries)
962. Initial claims for
State unemployment
insurance, week including the 12th
(51 areas)
9-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
15,0
10.0
15.0
11,8
72.5
68,6
1-month
span
6-month
span
46.1
27,5
25.5
66,9
66.3
62,2
74.7
71.8
64.0
1979
100.0
75.0
87.5
50,0
83.3
75.0
75.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
41.7
33.3
29.2
12.5
75.0
75.0
75.0
50.0
25.0
91.7
75,0
83.3
100.0
100,0
92.5
32.5
17.5
30,0
17.5
66.7
66.7
56.9
49.0
31.4
49.7
58.1
57.8
60.5
53.8
51.5
45.8
29.2
54.2
37.5
33.3
45.8
100.0
100.0
50.0
75.0
66.7
83.3
75.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
75.0
45.0
72.5
32.5
25.0
90,0
37.3
54.9
86,3
21,6
23.5
49.0
57.0
54.4
52.9
58.1
55.5
55.2
16.7
20,8
41.7
41.7
45.8
16.7
62,5
50.0
83.3
41.7
50.0
37.5
57,5
65.0
45.0
32.5
27.5
53.9
68.6
35,3
33.3
100,0
75.0
75.0
25.0
5.9
65.1
55.2
53.5
59.3
63.1
56.4
41.7
29.2
33.3
100.0
25.0
r41.7
r50.0
r58.3
r33.3
75.0
10.0
17.5
16.7
2.0
2.0
9.8
60.2
54,9
45.9
45.3
36.9
32.3
r41.7
55.0
17.5
17.5
34.6
28.8
30.2
24.7
26.7
25.6
36.3
62.8
62.8
r32.3
r48.3
p67.7
25.0
75.0
83.3
83,3
75.0
50.0
r66.7
50.0
52.5
37.5
67,5
0.0
7.8
8.8
1980
January
February
March
April
May
June
r20.8
July
August
September
r75.0
12.5
50.0
October
November
December
83.3
91.7
0.0
r!6.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
16.7
33.3
45.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
25.0
25.0
r66.7
100.0
MOO.O
25.0
75.0
100.0
r66.7
X
r50.0
25.0
66.7
33.3
33.3
50.0
r41.7
100.0
100.0
33.3
33.3
100.0
79.2
25.0
2
66.7
2
75.0
100.0
r33.3
3
50.0
100.0
50.0
r33.3
3
33.3
33.3
75.0
0.0
32.5
87.5
65,0
r70.0
r70,0
p90.0
2.5
5,0
12.5
5.0
10.0
r32.5
p80,0
25.5
60.8
46.1
3.9
33.3
70.6
62.7
84.3
13.7
P76.5
(NA)
19.6
3.9
p7.8
(NA)
r64.0
r67.2
p63.7
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
Excludes series 12 and 36 for which data are not yet available.
2
Excludes series 57 for which data are not yet available.
3
Excludes series 70 and 95 for which data are not yet available.
74
JANUARY 1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
KM DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
Year
and
month
964. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)
965. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
deflated (17 manufacturing industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-quarter
span
January
February
March
62.9
45.7
62.9
82.9
80.0
61.4
48
April
May
June
25.7
62.9
51.4
65.7
62.9
60.0
33
July
August
September
42.9
57.1
60.0
54.3
45.7
75.7
48
October
November
December
51.4
45.7
54.3
62.9
62.9
42.9
53
January
February
March
72.9
40.0
31.4
22.9
28.6
34.3
71
April
May
June
17.1
34.3
42.9
44.3
54.3
40.0
15
July
August
September
71.4
54.3
82.9
r51.4
p57.1
October
November
December
71.4
966. Index of industrial
production (24
industries)
967. Index of spot
market prices, raw
industrials ®
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
span
6-month
span
'45
62.5
54.2
70.8
62.5
66.7
50.0
61.5
76.9
76.9
*45
16.7
62.5
56.2
56.2
54.2
45.8
69.2
42.3
53.8
"si
52.1
39.6
45.8
66.7
50.0
54.2
"47
64.6
52.1
58.3
58.3
58.3
45.8
p48
75.0
37.5
35.4
4-Q moving
average
1-month
span
968. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks 1 ©
960. Net profits,
manufacturing 2 ®
(about 700 companies)
1-month
span
9-month
span
96.2
96.2
88.5
94.8
35.5
85.5
18.2
32.7
57.4
*7l'
80.8
84.6
90.7
88.9
75.0
*74
63.0
68.5
68.5
*63
69.8
37.7
39.6
*54
39.6
47.2
77.4
*56
9-month
span
(4-quarter span)
1979
3
91.7
80.0
16.4
90.0
46.2
30.8
53.8
3
66.7
66.7
58.3
64.8
92.6
53.7
62.5
3
61.5
76.9
3
66.7
58.3
58.3
38.0
95.4
16.7
16.7
12.5
50.0
73.1
61.5
3
58.3
50.0
74.1
52.8
12.5
16.7
16.7
16.7
12.5
12.5
11.5
15.4
29.2
62.5
r39.6
r72.9
p95.8
53.8
76.9
57.7
3
3
3
3
3.7
1980
r48.6
p62.9
(NA)
p50
r81.3
(NA)
r87.5
rlOO.O
p91.7
0.0
65.4
53.8
46.2
3
53.8
3.8
50.0
46.2
46.2
26.4
92.5
89.6
90.6
94.3
86.8
46.2
42.3
92.5
88.7
76.4
84.9
96.2
"38.5
(NA)
43.4
55.7
15.1
1981
January
February
March
"30.8
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
1
Based on 58 industries for January 1979, on 55 industries through June 1979, on 54 industries through January 1980, and on 53 industries
thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source agency.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun $ Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on 12 components (excluding rosin).
*Average for January 6, 13, and 20.
JANUARY 1981
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Q| DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
Year
and
quarter
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)
b. Later
anticipations
c. Early
anticipations
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade l ©
972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade l ©
971. New orders, manufacturing ' ©
970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment (18 industries)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
72.7
90.9
72.7
86.4
81.8
81.8
77.3
75.0
70.5
59.1
86.4
72.7
83
86
86
86
82
83
88
86
73
76
78
78
79
82
84
83
84
86
88
88
86
87
92
90
86.4
68.2
68.2
88.6
52.3
63.6
63.6
47.7
63.6
50.0
68.2
77.3
85
81
73
78
80
84
80
72
78
74
70
72
78
82
80
70
87
84
82
82
85
88
84
78
77.3
59.1
50.0
(NA)
54.5
45.5
36.4
40.9
81.8
59.1
81.8
77.3
74
63
60
66
75
57
62
62
54
57
66
73
59
61
73
62
68
72
80
63
67
1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
77
70.5
70
78
Q| DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
Year
and
quarter
974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade [ ©
Anticipated
Actual
975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade ' ©
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
62
64
64
63
59
60
62
62
76
76
76
78
67
70
73
74
62
60
60
58
60
60
58
56
80
76
73
75
58
54
53
54
56
48
50
67
61
64
976. Selling prices, manufacturing ' ©
Anticipated
Actual
977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade l ®
978. Selling prices, retail
trade ' ©
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
87
88
90
91
82
84
87
87
89
92
93
94
84
90
87
90
91
94
94
93
90
88
92
92
70
74
71
68
92
93
92
94
86
88
88
86
96
95
95
96
88
90
92
90
94
95
94
96
90
92
92
90
62
70
53
56
90
88
90
87
90
83
86
92
90
92
90
92
87
88
92
91
94
90
93
84
90
(4-Q span)
1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
56
63
88
90
90
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated by®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
lr
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc. Dun £
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.
76
JANUARY 1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
JQJ SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
1980
Diffusion index components
August
July
June
May
October
September
Novemberr
December
961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
39.3
39.1
39.0
Percent rising of 20 components
(18)
(18)
(32)
+
39.4
+
39.6
+
+
39.9
+
40.2
(90)
(70)
(70)
(65)
(88)
r39.7
Durable goods industries:
38.1
36.6
+
+
38,9
37.4
+
38.8
38.0
o
r38.7
r38.0
+
o
39.3
38.0
+
39.5
38.5
40.4
38.8
40.2
38,6
+
+
40.3
39.2
+
+
40.9
39.7
o
+
40.9
r40.1
+
+
41.1
40.8
+
+
41.2
41.4
39.9
41.0
39.7
40.7
39.6
40.6
+
+
40.1
40.8
+
+
40.4
40.9
o
r40.4
+
+
40.5
41.0
+
+
40.7
41.2
Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment
39.5
39.7
39,2
39.5
39,0
39.6
+
+
39.4
40.9
+
+
39.5
40.6
+
+
+
+
40.0
41.4
+
+
40.3
41.9
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
40.3
38.3
40.4
38.2
40.1
38.3
o
+
40.1
38.6
o
+
40.1
38.9
+
+
+
o
40.7
38.7
+
+
40.9
39.2
39.9
38.2
39.6
37.3
+
+
39.7
38.5
+
39.8
37.3
39.7
37.5
39.9
38.9
+
+
39.6
39.5
+
+
40.1
38.3
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
39.7
35.3
39.1
35.2
38.8
35.1
+
o
39.2
35.1
+
o
39.7
35.1
+
+
r39.9
+
40.0
35.0
+
+
40.6
35.6
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
41.7
37.1
41.4
36.8
41.4
36.9
+
+
41.8
37.1
+
42.2
36.9
o
+
r42.2
r37.1
+
42.5
36.8
+ '
+
43.0
37.5
41.3
42.5
41.1
42.3
40.8
42.2
+
o
41.0
42.2
+
+
41.3
42.7
+
+
41.4
+
41.7
43.0
+
r43.1
42.0
42.8
39.2
36.7
39.0
36.1
+
+
40.2
36.5
40.1
36.2
+
+
r40.4
r36.5
+
40.7
36.3
+
+
40.8
36.8
t
80,693
+
37,5
37,6
+
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
40.3
39,2
+
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
+
+
37.6
37.0
+
40.7
r39.9
40.8
40.2
r38.7
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
+
o
+
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products
39.3
36.7
o
o
+
964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES '
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
-
Percent rising of 35 components
66,454
67,328
(43)
(34)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
+
74,228
-
72,229
+
2
78,960
(83)
(54)
(71)
35.3
81,047
+
(63)
(49)
(71)
82,560
8,373
8,333
+
8,947
8,076
+
+
10,811
8,621
+
11,412
8,522
+
+
12,554
8,903
+
+
13,745
10,121
-
13,029
9,884
+
12,847
9,974
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
+
-
12,701
10,022
+
13,085
9,941
+
14,177
9,677
+
12,931
10,790
+
14,817
9,977
~
+
14,806
11,098
+
+
14,822
11,459
+
-
15,033
10,486
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
-
14,320
13,579
+
12,672
13,733
+
+
16,362
14,580
-
14,175
14,399
+
+
17,487
15,222
+
15,007
15,916
+
-
15,957
15,896
+
+
17,767
16,453
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
The "r" indicates revised; "p"
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are included in the totals
and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here.
JANUARY 1981
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
|Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
1980
Diffusion index components
May
June
July
August
October r
September^
November1^
December
966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION '
(1967 = 100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components
:
144.0
141.5
140.4
(17)
(17)
(29)
+
141.8
+
(62)
144.1
+
146.8
+
(88)
(81)
149.2
+
150.7
(100)
(92)
(NA)
(NA)
Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
104.5
149.5
Clay, glass, and stone products
Primary metals
140.8
Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery
133.2
162.1
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
171.4
109.8
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures
+
109.7
143.1
+
134.5
96.1
90.4
112.8
138.6
+
+
121.7
141.1
+
+
122.6
144.8
134.2
+
+
135.7
+
+
141.4
86.0
81.7
+
122.2
147.2
+
+
125.4
148.0
90.1
+
+
144.2
100.8
+
+
146.7
112.4
+
116.7
(NA)
126.1
158.3
+
123.8
158.5
+
+
125.8
158.8
+
+
129.0
159.1
+
+
132.8
160.5
+
+
134.3
161.7
+
+
135.7
162.1
166.6
110.0
165.0
110.7
+
166.7
108.3
+
+
167.5
112.9
+
+
170.0
118.8
+
+
172.3
121.8
+
+
174.2
J20.6
171.0
147.3
169.2
143.7
167.5
144.7
+
+
167.6
144.2
167.4
142.8
+
+
169.6
145.0
+
+
170.9
147.5
+
+
172.6
149.1
149.5
116.2
149.0
113.9
148.9
119.6
149.5
+
Textile mill products
Apparel products
137.1
128.6
133.6
127.2
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
145.7
135.5
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
199.2
133.0
248.1
+
Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products
+
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
+
70.1
+
120.8
145.0
+
148.3
117.4
+
+
148.6
119.1
+
+
149.4
123.1
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
132.5
121.5
+
+
132.6
123.8
+
+
133.0
126.7
+
+
134.1
128.1
+
143.6
138.6
+
+
147.1
140.3
+
o
152.3
140.3
+
+
153.4
141.5
+
+
154.0
143.2
+
+
155.5
145.1
191.1
131.3
190.3
130.5
+
197.8
126.7
+
+
206.8
130.5
+
209.2
129.1
+
+
212.7
131.8
+
135.4
242.9
242.5
+
245.9
+
253.1
67.2
+
+
260.4
67.8
+
+
258.1
68.5
120.0
150.0
73.1
+
149.8
144.7
+
+
100.5
151.6
135.4
129.0
+
+
137.1
130.5
146.2
135.4
+
67.7
70.2
135.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
71.0
Mining:
Metal mining
Coal
'
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
+
133.9
128.1
+
133,2
123.9
83.1
+
134.3
123.7
71.2
+
+
154.9
133.6
123.5
148.9
+
+
134.7
128.2
+
+
89.1
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
78
(NA)
+
159.7
+
137.9
(NA)
The "r" indicates revised; "p"
JANUARY
1981
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Ql SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
Diffusion index components
1981
1980
May
June
July
August
October
September
November
December
January 1
t
-
-
967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS 2
Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . .
-
Percent rising of 13 components
278.5
-
(15)
267.5
+
(0)
277.6
+
(54)
292.1
+
298.3
+
(65)
(58)
(77)
300.8
304.7
(54)
298.4
(46)
293.5
(31)
Dollars
0.679
1.497
+
0.760
1,675
-
0.732
1.614
-
0.716
1.578
+
0.732
1.614
-
0.719
1.585
-
0.654
1.442
+
0.670
1.477
-
0.216
0.476
+
0.218
0.481
+
0.256
0.564
+
0.294
0.648
+
0.302
0.666
-
0,294
0.648
-
0.260
0.573
-
0.247
0.545
71.000
78.263
-
63.000
69.445
+
68.000
74.956
+
78.000
85.979
+
89.000
98.105
+
93.000
102.514
+
98.000
108.025
+ 103.800
114.419
-
96.000
105.821
+
8.063
17.776
-
7.810
17.218
-
7.742
17.068
o
7.742
17.068
+
7.974
17.579
-
7.728
17.037
-
7.405
16.325
-
6.766
14.916
-
6.733
14.844
(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .
-
0.375
0.827
-
0.368
0.811
-
0.355
0.783
+ ' 0.359
0.791
+
0.374
0.825
+
0.383
0.844
+
0.396
0.873
+
0.416
0.917
o
0.416
0.917
Burlap
(yard) . .
(meter)..
-
0.350
0.383
0.337
0.369
-
0.324
0.354
+
0.331
0.362
-
0.325
0,355
-
0.314
0.343
0.286
0.313
-
0.273
0.299
+
0.279
0.305
Cotton
(pound). .
(kilogram) . .
0.779
1.717
-
0.725
1.598
+
0.783
1.726
+
0.857
1.889
+
0.875
1.929
-
0.861
1.898
+
0.869
1.916
+
0.875
1.929
-
0.862
1.900
Print cloth
(yard) . .
(meter) . .
0.691
0.756
-
0.690
0.755
-
0.675
0.738
-
0.668
0.731
-
0.656
0.717
+
0.665
0.727
+
0.684
0.748
+
0.702
0.768
-
0.687
0.751
Wool tops
(pound) . .
(kilogram)..
-
3.250
7.165
3.200
7.055
o
3.200
7.055
+
3.400
7.496
+
3.460
7.628
+
3.500
7.716
o
3.500
7.716
o
3.500
7.716
o
3.500
7.716
Hides
(pound) . .
(kilogram). .
-
0.405
0.893
0.380
0.838
+
0.476
1.049
+
0.522
1.151
0.474
1.045
+
0.498
. 1.098
+
0.592
1.305
+
0.624
1.376
Rosin
(100 pounds). .
(100 kilograms). .
-
46.500
102.514
45.000
99.207
o
45.000
99.207
o
45.000
99.207
o
45.000
99.207
o
45.000
99.207
o
45.000
99.207
o
45.000
99.207
Rubber
(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .
-
0.682
1,504
0.680
1.499
0.678
1.495
+
0.688
1.517
+
0.756
1.667
+
0.802
1.768
-
0.796
1.755
-
0.722
1.592
Tallow
(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .
0.168
0.370
0.152
0.335
0.167
0.368
+
0.187
0.412
-
0.179
0.395
-
0.169
0.373
+
0.180
0.397
Copper scrap
(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .
+
0.688
1.517
Lead scrap
(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .
-
0.220
0.485
Steel scrap
(U.S. t o n ) . ,
(metric ton) . .
-
Tin
(pound) . .
(kilogram). .
Zinc
-
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
( f ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( — ) = falling.
0.177
0.390
0.580
1.279
o
45.000
99.207
0.709
1.563
o
0.177
0.390
The "r" indicates revised: "p",
1
Average for January 6, 13, and 20.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2
Digitizedltd)
for FRASER
JANUARY 1981
79
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Q GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter
a. Total
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
217. Per capita
GNP in 1972
, .I
ooiiars
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars
200. Gross national product in current dollars
b. Difference
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
213. Final sales
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
2,032.4
2,129.6
2,190.5
2,271.9
43.8
97.2
60.9
81.4
2,340.6
2,374.6
r2, 444.1
2,496.3
68.7
34.0
12.7
r69.5
r52.2
12.2
75.4
-6.9
72.5
12.6
-1.1
11.8
9.1
20.5
11.9
15.7
1,402.3
1,432.8
1,446.7
1,465.8
10.8
30.5
13.9
19.1
3.2
9.0
3.9
5.4
6,431
6,558
6,606
6,679
1,384.6
1,416.8
1 ,435.2
rl,455.3
1,479.9
1,473.4
1,488.2
1,490.6
14.1
-6.5
14.8
3.9
- .7
4.1
0.6
6,730
6,687
6,737
6,731
1,464.4
1 ,455.0
1 ,480.6
1,491.3
3.1
6,767
6,578
6,597
p6,660
1 ,502.8
1,462.0
1 ,476.9
pi ,490. 3
1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
5.9
8.8
2.4
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
2,571.7
2,564.8
2,637.3
p2,741.4
pl04.1
1,501.9
1,463.3
1,471.9
pi ,490.1
p!6.7
11.3
-38.6
8.6
p!8.2
-9.9
2.4
p5.0
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
^H PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
JQ GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Contmued
Year
and
quarter
Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
230. Total in current
dollars
231. Total in 1972
dollars
232. Durable goods
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
233. Durable goods
in 1972 dollars
227. Per capita in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1,398.0
1,440.7
1,482.1
1,531.0
966.8
975.5
985.9
998.0
4,434
4,465
4,502
4,547
1,278.3
1,330.1
1,369.9
1,416.6
884.1
900.6
911.2
923.4
185.0
200,1
202.0
210.2
139.5
148.1
147.0
150.7
rl,580.2
1,612.8
1,663.8
1,710.1
1,005.7
1,006.9
1,015.7
1,017.7
4,574
4,570
4,598
4,596
1,454.1
1,478.0
1,529.1
1,582.3
925.5
922.8
933.4
941.6
212.5
207.4
213.3
216.1
149.6
144.2
146.7
146.0
1,765.1
1,784.1
1,840.6
pi, 899.1
rl, 021.0
rl,008.2
rl,018.5
pi ,026. 6
r4,600
r4,532
r4,565
p4,589
1,631.0
1,626.8
1,682.2
pi, 744. 4
943.4
919.3
930.8
p943.0
220.9
194.4
208.8
p222.1
1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
145.4
126^2
132.6
p!38.3
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.
JANUARY 1981
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
BH PERSONAL CONSUMPTION
Year
and
quarter
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
EXPENDITURES-Continued
^R GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
237. Services in
current dollars
239. Services in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
240. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
241. Total in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
242. Fixed investment, total, in
current dollars
243. Fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
504.0
520.4
536.3
558.3
339.8
342.4
347.2
353.5
589.3
609.5
631.6
648.1
404.8
410.1
417,1
419.2
350.7
377.7
380.4
392.6
224.9
232.9
229.3
231.8
325.8
350.7
361.3
374.9
207.2
216.9
217.8
221.3
571.8
586.4
611.5
639.2
351.1
350.6
355.4
361.3
669.9
684.2
704.3
727.0
424.8
428.0
431.3
434.3
408.3
423.2
421.7
410.0
237.7
238.7
232.6
221.5
384.0
390.1
408.3
410.8
222.3
220.4
225.0
222.2
661.1
361.5
356.6
354.9
p357.5
749.0
768.4
799.2
p824.5
436.5
436.5
443.3
p447.3
415.6
390.9
377.1
p403.7
218.3
200.5
195.3
p203.9
413.1
383.5
393.2
p409.4
219.2
199.2
200.2
p204.1
266. State and
local government
in current dollars
267. State and
local government
in 1972 dollars
1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
r664.0
674.2
p697.8
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
D
I cdf
Vpar
and
quarter
GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.
245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
JQ GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
260. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
261. Total in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars
263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
24.9
27.0
19.1
17.7
17.7
16.0
11.5
10.6
415.7
425.1
438.3
451.3
274.6
276.3
280.0
280.1
149.5
149.1
154.1
160.7
24.3
33.1
13.3
-0.8
15.4
18.4
458.2
465.1
475.4
496.4
280.6
280.3
281.1
285.3
164.8
163.6
165.1
178.1
102.9
100.8
516.8
530.0
533.5
p558.8
290.1
291.9
288.2
p290.2
190.0
198.7
194.9
p213.3
266.2
276.0
284.2
290.6
175.3
178.3
179.2
179.2
103.1
293.4
301.6
310.4
318.3
177.7
179.4
181.2
182.2
107.6
110.7
106.9
p!08.6
326.8
331.3
338.6
p345.5
182.5
T181.2
r!81 .3
pl81.6
99.4
98.0
100.8
101.0
1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
7.6
-0.7
99.9
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
2.5
7.4
-16.0
p-5.7
-0.9
1.3
-5.0
p-0.2
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.
JANUARY 1981
81
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
H
Qj FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
quarter
255. Constant
(1972) dollars
250. Current
dollars
256. Constant
(1972) dollars
252. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Imports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services
Net exports of goods and services
220. National income in current
dollars
280. Compensation of
employees
257. Constant
(1972) dollars
253. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
18.7
23.0
26.1
30.5
195.9
214.8
225.3
243.5
118.3
125,4
129.8
136.6
208.2
218.1
223.3
232.0
102.4
103.7
106.2
1,644.6
1,720.7
1,771.7
1,844.6
1,238.1
1 ,282.3
1,316.5
1,361.7
36.0
31.6
41.1
42.2
259.1
266.8
293.1
306.3
141.1
140.5
151.3
154.8
239.2
258.6
275.2
298.7
105,1
108.8
110.2
112.6
H,903.6
1,932.0
1,986.2
r2,031.3
rl,409.9
rl, 439.0
1,476.7
1,518.1
17.1
44.5
50.1
51.7
57.6
p34.5
p52.9
337.3
333.3
342.4
p349,2
165.9
160.5
160.5
p!59.5
329.1
316.2
297.9
p314.7
115.8
108.9
102.8
p!06.6
2,088.5
2,070.0
2,122.4
(NA)
1,558.0
1,569.0
1,597.4
pi, 662. 4
-12.3
-3.3
1.9
11.4
99.5
1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
19.9
8.2
17.9
7.6
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
8.2
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
y| SAVING
Q| NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Contmued
Ypar
I Cdl
and
quarter
282. Proprietors'
income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
284. Rental income
of persons with
capital consumption adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
286. Corporate
profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
290. Gross saving
(private and government)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
295. Business
saving
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
110.3
115.5
118.2
124.6
25.3
25.4
28.7
30.0
163.6
185.2
190.5
202.7
107.3
112.3
117.8
125.7
326.9
354.0
359.4
380.4
260.1
275.5
284.9
295.8
84.6
73.6
73.4
73.8
127.8
129.4
132.9
136.3
30.7
30.1
30.3
31.0
201.9
196.6
199.5
189.4
133.4
136.9
146.8
156.5
407.4
416.2
422.3
402.0
304.4
310.3
320.5
315.7
83.8
90.9
89.3
80.7
133.7
124,9
129.7
p!34.2
31.2
31.5
32.0
200.2
169.3
177.9
r404.5
394.5
402.0
326.7
325.8
334.6
p32.6
(NA)
165.4
175.3
185.3
p!94.3
1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
(NA)
(NA)
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
82
JANUARY 1981
r86.4
rllO.O
rill. 4
p!06.6
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
M SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
^9 SAVING-Continued
Year
and
quarter
298. Government
surplus or deficit,
total
293. Personal
saving rate
(percent of disposable personal
income)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total
(Percent)
(Percent)
248. Nonresidential
fixed investment
249. Residential
fixed investment
(Percent)
(Percent)
247. Change in
business inventories
251. Net exports of
goods and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
6.0
5.1
5.0
4.8
62.9
62.5
62.5
62.4
11.0
11.2
11.3
11.4
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.1
1.2
1.3
0.9
0.8
4.4
5.3
5.6
5.4
4.7
62.1
62.2
62.6
63.4
11.4
11.5
11.8
11.6
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.8
1.0
1.4
0.5
0.0
0.9
0.3
0.7
0.3
r-9.6
r-42.5
r-45.6
4.9
6.2
6.1
63.4
63.4
63.8
11.6
11.3
11.1
4.5
3.6
3.8
0.1
0.3
p5.6
p63.6
plO.8
0.3
0.7
1.7
pi. 3
-17.7
4.9
1.1
10.8
-0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.5
1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
18.1
13.9
11.3
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
(NA)
p4.1
-0.6
p-0.2
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
^J SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued
Year
and
quarter
Percent of GNP-Contmued
Percent of national income
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj '
285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj '
(Percent)
(Percent)
287. Corporate
profits with IVA
and CCAdj '
289. Net interest
(Percent)
(Percent)
1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
7.4
7.0
7.0
7.1
13.1
13.0
13.0
12.8
75.3
74.5
74.3
73.8
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.8
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
7.0
6.9
6.8
7.1
12.5
12.7
12.7
12.8
74.1
74.5
74.3
74.7
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
7.4
7,7
7.4
12.7
12.9
12.8
6.4
6.0
6.1
1.5
1.5
1.5
p7.8
p!2.6
74.6
75.8
75.3
(NA)
9.9
10.8
10.8
11.0
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.8
1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
9.3
7.0
7.1
7.4
7.7
9.6
8.2
8.4
7.9
8.5
8.7
10.6
10.2
10.0
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
1
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
J A N U A R Y 1981
83
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS
Implicit price deflator,
gross national product
Year
and
month
310. Index
(1972 = 100)
310c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans l
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product
311. Index
(1972 = 100)
311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans *
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Consumer prices, all items
Consumer prices, food
320. Index ©
320c. Change
over 1 -month
spans 1
320c. Change
over 6-month
spans '
(1967 = 100)
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
322. Index
322c. Change
over 1 -month
spans '
322c. Change
over 6-month
spans '
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1979
8.4
January
February
March
158!2
April
May
June
16l'.2
July
August
September
164^2
October
November
December
167^5
204.7
207.1
209.1
0.9
1.1
1.0
11.1
12.0
12.9
225.3
228.4
230.6
1.4
1.4
1.0
r9.2
211.5
214.1
216.6
1.0
1.0
1.0
13.2
12,9
13.3
232.0
233.5
234.2
0.6
0.6
0.3
9.1
6.3
6.4
r9.5
218.9
221.1
223.4
1.1
1.0
1.2
13.4
13.3
13.8
235.3
235.5
237.9
0.5
0.1
1.0
6.8
6.9
9.3
r9.3
225.4
227.5
229.9
1.0
1.0
1.2
14.5
15.3
15.9
239.8
241.4
244.8
0.8
0.7
1.4
8.2
8.0
7.9
10.2
233.2
236.4
239.8
1.4
1.4
1.4
15.7
15.4
14.8
244.8
244.7
247.1
0.0
0.0
1.0
7.3
6.6
4.7
r9.5
242.5
244.9
247.6
0.9
0.9
1.0
11.7
10.2
9.3
248.4
249.2
250.5
0.5
0.3
0.5
247.8
249.4
251.7
0.0
0.7
1.0
9.4
9.7
9.9
252.9
257.5
261.6
1.0
1.8
1.6
253.9
256.2
258.4
1.0
1.0
1.1
263.6
266.6
269.4
0.8
1.1
1.1
r9.5
rlSl'ii
7.8
rl65\6
7.8
rl68!s
8.1
rl72*.6
12.9
12.8
11.1
1980
January
February
March
171.2
April
May
June
175^3
July
August
September
179^2
October
November
December
p!84!6
9.3
rl76\8
9.8
r!80.'9
9.2
r9.8
r!85!2
pll.2
p9.6
p!89!5
6.7
10.7
12.1
12.6
14.5
15.7
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month,
and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
JANUARY 1981
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
HI
Producer prices, all commodities
Year
and
month
330. Index ©
(1967-100)
330c. Change
over 1-month
spans ' @
(Percent)
PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
Producer prices, industrial commodities
330c. Change
over 6-month
spans l @
(Ann. rate,
percent)
335. Index
©
(1967 = 100)
335c. Change
over 1-month
spans l ©
(Percent)
Producer prices, crude materials
335c. Change
over 6-month
spans * @
(Ann. rate,
percent)
331. Index
(1967 = 100)
331c. Change
over 1-month
spans '
(Percent)
331c. Change
over 6-month
spans '
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1979
January
February
March
220.8
224.1
226.7
1.5
1.5
1.2
14.5
15.7
15.3
220.0
222.5
225.4
1.3
1.1
1.3
13.8
15.0
16.1
262.6
269.1
274.2
April
May
June
230.0
232.0
233.5
1.5
0.9
0.6
15.1
13.1
14.0
229.0
231.6
234.0
1.6
1.1
1.0
16.5
16.9
17.4
273.2
275.1
278.4
July
August
September
236.9
238.3
242.0
1.5
0.6
1.6
14.0
13.5
14.4
237.5
240.6
244.2
1.5
T.3
1.5
18.2
17.1
17.0
October
November
December
245.6
247.2
249.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
15.8
19.2
17.1
249.0
250.6
253.1
2.0
0.6
1.0
January
February
March
254.9
260.2
261.9
2.1
2.1
0.7
14.5
14.2
13.1
260.6
265.9
268.6
April
May
June
262.8
264.2
265.6
0.3
0.5
0.5
no. 7
12.5
9.5
271.3
271.9
273.5
July
August
September
270.4
r273.8
274.1
rl.3
rO.l
11.1
11.0
11.4
276.2
r278.2
278.2
October
November
December
277.0
278.4
280.3
1.1
0.5
0.7
2.1
2.5
1.9
16.4
16.1
17.1
0.7
1.2
17.5
12.3
12.9
284.6
285.2
291.4
2.2
0.2
2.2
16.2
17.7
17.4
20.4
22.1
21.0
294.5
298.4
301.7
1.1
1.3
1.1
10.7
16.2
3.0
2.0
1.0
18.7
17.7
16.8
299.5
307.5
300.9
-0.7
1.0
0.2
0.6
12.3
r9.5
-3.5
7.3
290.4
294.1
295.2
7.4
8.1
9.4
313.9
r333.1
335.8
-0.4
6.6
1980
1.8
281.2
282.7
286.1
1.0
rO.7
rO.O
1.1
0.5
1.2
342.3
346.2
341.6
2.7
-2.1
1.3
0.4
6.3
r6.1
rO.8
-2.8
-2.9
-4.3
9.8
r!7.3
24.5
38.9
38.6
33.9
1.9
1.1
-1.3
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
Percent changes are centered within the spans:
month.
licit
JANUARY 1981
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th
85
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
Year
and
month
332. Index
(1967 = 100)
332c. Change
over 1-month
spans l
(Percent)
Producer prices, finished consumer goods
Producer prices, capital equipment
Producer prices, intermediate materials
332c. Change
over 6-month
spans l
(Ann. rate,
percent)
333. Index
(1967 = 100)
333c. Change
over 1-month
spans l
(Percent)
333c. Change
over 6-month
spans '
(Ann. rate,
percent)
334. Index
(1967 = 100)
334c. Change
over 1-month
spans '
(Percent)
334c. Change
over 6-month
spans '
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1979
January
February
March
226.9
229.2
231.6
1.2
1.0
1.0
13.3
13.4
14.2
208.5
210.3
211.6
1.0
0.9
0.6
April
May
June
235.0
237.3
239.7
1.5
1.0
1.0
15.3
16.2
17.2
214.0
215.0
216.4
July
August
September
243.6
247.1
250.7
1.6
1.4
1.5
17.7
17.6
17.8
218.2
217.9
219.5
October
November
December
255.0
257.3
260.2
1.7
0.9
1.1
20.4
21.7
19.4
221.4
222.9
224.8
0.9
0.7
0.9
January
February
March
267.3
272.6
273.9
2.7
2.0
0.5
15.7
14.6
13.8
228.4
230.0
232.0
April
May
June
274.3
275.4
277.6
0.1
0.4
0.8
r7.9
236.2
236.6
238.3
9.9
9.9
203.7
206.1
208.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
12.7
12.7
11.1
1.1
0.5
0.7
9.5
7.4
7.6
209.7
210.8
212.0
0.6
0.5
0.6
11.2
12.2
13.7
0.8
7.0
7.5
7.9
214.8
218.3
222.2
1.3
1.6
1.8
14.9
16.9
17.6
9.6
11.4
11.7
224.8
227.9
229.9
1.2
1.4
0.9
18.3
18.5
18.0
1.6
0.7
0.9
13.8
12.7
12.4
233.6
237.6
241.4
1.6
1.7
1.6
15.6
13.3
12.9
1.8
0.2
0.7
11.9
H2.0
241.7
242.6
244.3
0.1
0.4
0.7
r!3.2
9.2
248.7
r252.8
252.3
1.8
1.6
-0.1
0.7
11.1
1980
July
August
September
280.0
r283.2
283.7
October
November
December
286.3
289.1
292.9
0.9
rl.l
rO.2
0.9
1.0
1.3
9.7
7.3
8.9
10.2
11.3
241.6
r243.4
243.2
246.6
248.0
250.5
1.4
rO.7
-0.1
1.4
0.6
1.0
9.9
9.0
9.9
10.5
253.8
255.5
256.7
13.3
10.3
10.9
10.4
-0.2
0.6
0.7
0.5
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
Percent changes are centered within the spans:
month.
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th
JANUARY
1981
BCD
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Qj WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private noniarm economy, adjusted '
Year
and
month
Current-dollar earnings
340. Index
(1967 = 100)
340c. Change
over 1 -month
spans 2
(Percent)
Current-dollar compensation
Real earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
341. Index
(1967 = 100)
341c. Change
over 1-month
spans 2
(Percent)
341 c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
345. Index
(1967 = 100)
345c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1979
January
February
March
222.6
224.0
225.2
0.7
0.6
0.5
7.8
7.6
7.5
108.4
107.8
107.3
-0.2
-0.6
-0.5
-3.3
-4.2
-4.9
239*5
April
May
June
226.7
227.6
229.2
0.7
0.4
0.7
7.5
7.6
8.2
106.9
106.3
105.9
-0.4
-0.6
-0.4
-5.2
-4.9
-4.5
244! 2
July
August
September
230.8
232.3
234.3
0.7
0.6
0.9
7.5
8.8
9.1
105.5
105.2
104.9
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
-5.1
-4.0
-4.0
249! 2
October
November
December
235.0
237.3
239.4
0.3
1.0
0.9
8.4
8.9
9.6
104.2
104.1
103.8
-0.7
-0.1
-0.3
-5.3
-5.5
-5.5
254^6
240.3
242.4
245.2
0.4
0.9
1.2
9.8
9.4
9.8
102.7
102.2
102.0
-1.1
-0.5
-0.2
-5.2
-5.2
-4.3
261 !l
246.2
248.3
250.9
0.4
0.9
1.0
101.4
101.4
101.5
-0.6
0.0
0.1
-1.4
-0.3
-0.8
268!6
July
August
September
252.1
254.0
255.4
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.0
rO.2
rO.4
October
November
December
r257.9
r260.7
p261.6
10.2
8.9
8.1
8.9
8.5
9*6
9.0
"9^7
19SO
January
February
March
April
May
June
rl.O
rl.l
pO.3
10.0
9.8
8.4
r9.7
rlO.2
p8.7
102.0
102.0
101.5
rl01.5
rlOl.6
plOO.8
-0.5
10.5
11.0
(NA)
8.9
273.*7
pi. 3
r-0.0
rO.l
9*8
(NA)
(NA)
p-0,8
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month,
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
JANUARY 1981
87
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
HM WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector— Continued
Year
and
month
348. First year
average changes
Real compensation
346. Index
(1967-100)
346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans '
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries <u)
346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans '
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
349. Average
changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per hour, all persons private
business sector
370. Index
(1967 = 100)
370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans 1
370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans l
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
358. Index of
output per hour
all persons,
nonfarm
business sector
(1967-100)
1979
January
February
March
nsia
April
May
June
114J
July
August
September
112".9
October
November
December
n i '. 7
2.8
-0.9
5.3
-2*.6
-4.2
10.5
7.8
-3A
4!i
-1.4
117.*8
8.5
6.0
-l'.6
]io\6
-K7
ns'.i
-i!6
ii5!6
-\\k
115'.2
-O.'s
114.9
(NA)
iiiis
-2.0
6.1
-4.*5
-4.0
-3.1
llS.'i
9.0
-4.3
ns!9
n?!7
-0.3
1980
January
February
March
-5.5
no. i
April
May
June
'
p8.6
-2.4
109^5
July
August
September
109*.9
October
November
December
(NA)
p6.4
plO.l
p6.8
(NA)
1.6
-0.3
117.*7
-2.6
pll.6
neis
-2.7
0,3
P7.3
116*9
(NA)
p8.3
p5.9
114J3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans:
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are
JANUARY
1981
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Q CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
441. Total
442. Em-
ployed
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Labor force participation rates
448. Num-
Number unemployed
451. Males
20 years
and over
452. Females
20 years
and over
453. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Thous.)
Revised1
Revised 1
Revised 1
37. Total
444. Males
20 years
and over
445. Females
20 years
and over
446. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Revised 1
Revised 1
Revised 1
447. Fulltime
workers
(Thous.)
ber employed
part-time
for economic
reasons
(Thous.)
Revised 1
Revised 1
C1)
January
February
March
102,014
102,393
102,578
96,056
96,400
96,622
80.0
80.1
79.9
50.1
50.3
50.5
58.8
58.9
58.7
5,958
5,993
5,956
2,201
2,188
2,188
2,205
2,251
2,246
1,552
1,554
1,522
4,573
4,692
4,602
3,234
3,209
3,248
April
May
June
102,213
102,366
102,556
96,295
96,590
96,838
79.8
79.7
79.7
50.2
50.3
50.4
58.4
57.9
57.8
5,918
5,776
5,718
2,165
2,083
2,097
2,178
2,147
2,177
1,575
1,546
1,444
4,621
4,450
4,422
3,279
3,252
3,267
July
August
September
103,015
103,105
103,492
97,277
97,048
97,521
79.9
79.8
79.9
50.7
51.0
50.9
57.6
56.6
58.1
5,738
6,057
5,971
2,177
2,235
2,232
2,122
2,303
2,180
1,439
1,519
1,559
4,484
4,661
4,670
3,243
3,286
3,155
October
November
December
103,566
103,605
104,053
97,434
97,501
97,781
79.7
79.5
79.5
50.9
50.9
51.2
57.7
57.9
58.5
6,132
6,104
6,272
2,233
2,385
2,435
2,240
2,214
2,276
1,559
1,505
1,561
4,785
4,814
4,911
3,289
3,405
3,541
January
February
March
104,208
104,271
104,171
97,708
97,817
97,628
r79.5
79.6
79.4
51.3
51.3
51.2
58.0
57.5
57.4
6,500
6,454
6,543
2,629
2,581
2,736
2,314
2,311
2,295
1,557
1,562
1,512
5,130
5,114
5,265
3,549
3,454
3,470
April
May
June
104,427
105,060
104,591
97,225
97,116
96,780
79.5
79.9
79.4
51.4
51.5
51.4
56.5
57.9
56.7
7,202
7,944
7,811
3,192
3,569
3,558
2,501
2,593
2,569
1,509
1,782
1,684
5,825
6,586
6,430
3,803
4,276
3,969
July
August
September
105,020
104,945
104,980
96,999
97,003
97,180
r79.4
r79.4
r79.4
51.5
51.6
51.3
57.1
55.5
56.7
8,021
7,942
7,800
3,630
3,612
3,652
2,655
2,633
2,513
1,736
1,697
1,635
6,631
6,553
6,516
4,086
4,143
4,183
October
November
December
105,167
105,285
p!05,067
97,206
97,339
97,282
79.3
r79.2
51.4
51.5
51.4
56.8
56.5
56.0
7,961
7,946
7,785
3,532
3,532
3,425
2,732
2,720
2,750
1,697
1,694
1,610
6,559
6,632
6,549
4,220
4,176
4,218
1979
Revised 1
Revised 1
1980
79.0
1981
January
February
March
...
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
JANUARY 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Q DEFENSE INDICATORS
Hj RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
State and local governments '
Federal Government '
Year
and
month
Advance measures of defense activity
500. Surplus
or deficit
501. Receipts
502. Expenditures
510. Surplus
or deficit
511. Receipts
512. Expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred
525. Defense
Department
military prime
contract
awards
543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding
548. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1979
January
February
March
-1l!5
April
May
June
-s!i
477!6
488^4
29^5
5,706
4,773
5,763
65,120
48,267
67,128
2,684
3,871
3,102
320 '. 8
...
9,297
10,935
10,926
4,936
4,720
5,117
68,883
68,468
68,976
3,181
3,640
2,464
31K4
485 ! 9
494^6
21 '.9
342^7
.. .
...
10,787
10,250
11,741
340 ! 9
...
July
August
September
-is.'z
500 .' 6
S15.8
26\5
355! 4
r328.'9
12,657
11,052
11,965
6,135
5,282
6,364
70,252
81,542
71 ,886
2,332
3,029
4,237
October
November . .
December
-24 .*5
514!6
538.' 6
2&\9
365^6
336\7
11,679
10,730
11,565
4,318
5,670
5,489
64,325 '
68,634
68,525
3,048
4,033
3,787
January
February
March
-36 '.3
528 '.4
...
564 '.7
26*. 6
372 '.1
345 '.4
12,563
12,419
14,757
5,515
7,152
5,781
70,088
68,497
72,961
3,352
3,680
4,594
April
May
June
-66 '.5
520^9
587^3
23!9
373!9
350 ! 6
13,639
14,206
12,193
7,572
7,483
7,184
73,766
74,848
75,204
4,948
5,279
3,546
July
August
September
-74^2
540.8
615.6
28.6
386.8
358.2
12,973
14,310
13,949
6,768
7,633
7,410
76,366
76,506
79,260
4,366
4,515
6,458
October
November
December
(NA)
p638*.3
(NA)
(NA)
12,596
11,582
(NA)
\ '«• /
(NA)
77,930
76^530
3,908
r4[453
p5,873
1980
p365!3
(NA)
(NA)
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1
Based on national income and product accounts.
90
JANUARY
1981
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued
Qj DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued
National defense
purchases
Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month
557. Output of
defense and
space equipment
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products
561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products
580. Defense
Department
net outlays
(1967 = 100)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products
570. Employment in defense products
industries
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Thous.)
Defense Department
personnel
577. Military,
active duty ©
578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment ®
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services
565. Federal
purchases as
a percent of
GNP
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Percent)
1979
January
February
March
92.3
92.4
93.0
7,397
7,485
7,586
43,409
44,515
44,588
9,645
9,452
9,525
2,838
2,765
3,029
1,242
1,262
1,278
2,040
2,030
2,026
972
971
968
lOeib
4^5
April
May
June
92.1
92.4
92.2
7,573
7,806
7,953
44,854
45,670
45,138
9,299
9,781
9,425
2,915
2,824
2,996
1,283
1,289
1,299
2,022
2,018
2,024
968
972
979
108 .'l
4^6
July
August
September
92.9
91.9
93.8
8,048
8,178
8,553
44,656
44,697
46,000
10,499
10,103
9,982
2,814
2,988
2,934
1,310
1,312
1,324
2,027
2,024
2,027
982
974
960
112!6
4,'e
October
November
December
95.4
96.4
96.7
8,871
9,275
9,462
46,010
46,893
47,492
9,982
10,206
11,182
3,038
3,150
3,188
1,336
1,349
1,356
2,030
2,029
2,020
964
967
967
118,'7
4^8
January
February
March
97.0
97.2
97.1
9,592
9,619
It), 075
47,769
48,196
49,401
11,341
10,632
11,235
3,076
3,253
3,389
1,359
1,366
1,377
2,029
2,032
2,033
964
965
966
...
125.0
...
4^9
April
May
June
97,6
97.2
96.8
10,277
10,451
10,588
51,061
52,902
53,011
11,356
11,061
11,480
3,286
3,440
3,435
1,373
1,375
1,373
2,028
2,031
2,034
969
975
988
128.*7
July
August
September
97.2
96.9
97.4
10,908
11,177
11,310
53,922
55,112
57,771
11,303
11,135
11,648
3,453
3,324
3,798
1,371
1,379
1,384
2,044
2,049
2,051
990
973
971
...
131,4
...
11,647
11,833
57,904
r58,501
p60,618
r!2,371
11,209
13,243
3,776
r3,858
p3,756
rl,394
pi, 400
2,053
2,056
971
972
p!42!7
1980
October
November
December
r98.5
rlOO.2
plOl.3
(NA)
(NA)
{NA)
...
5.0
...
5.0
p5!2
(NA)
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
JANUARY 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
91
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Qj MERCHANDISE TRADE
Year
and
month
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
604. Exports of agricultural products
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
612. General imports,
total
614. Imports of
petroleum and
petroleum products
616. Imports of
automobiles and parts
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1979
January
February
March
13,265
13,616
14,297
2,338
2,424
2,682
2,682
2,832
2,917
16,528
14,605
15,358
3,580
3,634
3,667
1,963
1,706
1,589
April
May
June
13,979
14,083
14,817
2,547
2,450
2,909
2,706
2,859
3,034
15,841
16,438
16,835
3,832
4,000
4,199
1,956
1,851
1,730
July
August
September
15,691
15,713
15,822
3,103
3,141
3,059
3,022
3,241
3,153
16,806
18,277
18,407
4,692
4,949
5,662
1,815
2,113
1,849
October
November
December
16,680
16,928
16,742
3,254
3,415
3,434
3,251
3,172
3,240
19,037
18,548
19,665
6,050
5,351
6,502
1,805
1,984
1,871
January
February
March
17,348
17,233
18,534
3,439
3,520
3,331
3,297
3,454
3,423
20,945
21,640
20,607
5,614
7,741
6,991
1,899
2,035
1,960
April
May
June
18,468
17,678
18,642
3,285
3,083
3,024
3,571
3,620
3,943
19,308
20,528
19,893
5,185
7,191
6,611
1,710
1,999
1,843
July
August
September
18,075
19,103
18,701
3,300
3,682
3,648
3,985
4,230
4,027
18,995
19,236
19,465
5,153
6,018
4,982
2,103
2,139
2,270
October
November
December
19,088
18,634
3,491
3,525
4,117
3,968
20,060
19,422
5,876
6,051
2,189
2,314
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1980
(NA)
(NA)
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October . . .
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
92
JANUARY
1981
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Q| GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted '
Goods and services
Year
and
month
667. Balance
(Mil. dol.)
668. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
669. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
622. Balance
(Mil. dol.)
618. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
Income on investments
620. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
651. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil. dol.)
652. Foreign
investments in
the United
States
(Mil. dol.)
1979
January
February
March
2,732
65,667
62,935
-5,11*4
41,805
46,919
14,263
7,225
-110
67,763
67,873
-8,070
42,815
50,885
15,250
7,980
July
August
September
2,506
74,773
72,267
-7,060
47,198
54,258
18,050
8,731
October
November
December
-250
78,305
78,555
-9,225
50,237
59,462
18,407
9,524
-798
85,647
86,445
-10,850
54,708
65,558
20,846
10,752
April
May
June
1980
January
February
March
April
May
June
-1,1*05
81,892
82,997
-7,505
54,710
62,215
16,641
10,508
July
August
September
p6,377
p86,403
p80,026
p-2,828
p56,288
p59,116
pl9,113
p!0,646
October
November
December
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).
JANUARY 1981
ItCII
93
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
QH INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Year
and
month
47. United States,
index of industrial production
(1967 = 100)
721. OECD 1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
(1967 = 100)
728. Japan,
index of industrial production
(1967 = 100)
725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1967 = 100)
726. France,
index of industrial production
(1967 = 100)
722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
727. Italy, index
of industrial
production
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
723. Canada,
index of industrial production
(1967 = 100)
1979
January
February
March
152.0
152.5
153.5
154
156
157
210.2
213.1
213.1
159
157
161
158
159
161
122
132
133
152.8
160.0
156.0
160.8
161.0
162.0
April
May
June
151.1
152.7
153.0
158
158
158
214.4
218.2
218.5
161
164
164
159
163
163
132
134
136
156.7
151.9
145.1
160.3
162.1
160.6
July
August
September
153.0
152.1
152.7
163
160
161
221.2
221.8
220.5
168
164
164
168
168
165
134
130
150.4
150.1
159.4
163.1
163.3
165.4
October
November
December
152.7
152.3
152.5
225.0
228,1
228.4
166
167
167
r!63
163
163
163
165
r!31
166.8
167.3
164.7
164.7
163.7
160.8
165
166
130
rl26
168.5
175.8
174.2
160.9
161.2
164.2
H75.8
r!61.9
r!67.0
160.6
157.3
155.9
164.3
141.9
H60.2
155.5
157.2
r!60.1
p!61.9
H61.3
pi 62. 6
r!63
r!29
130
132
1980
January
February
March
152.7
152.6
152.1
164
165
165
230.9
243.3
235.0
168
170
170
April
May
June
148.3
144.0
141.5
164
158
160
238,8
236.4
234.0
168
164
163
166
159
159
July
August
September
140.4
141.8
r!44,l
161
156
156
235.0
224,0
233.1
164
161
165
165
r!23
r!60
r!55
r!17
October
November
December
H46.8
r!49,2
P150.7
163
pi 64
pi 59
pl!7
(NA)
(NA)
p235.2
(NA)
r!65
(NA)
r!25
r!24
123
r!23
118
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
94
JANUARY 1981
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
fll|
Japan
United States
Year
and
month
320. Index ®
(1967 = 100)
320c. Change
over 6-month
spansl
(Ann. rate,
percent)
738. Index ®
(1967 = 100)
CONSUMER PRICES
West Germany
738c. Change
over 6-month
spansl
(Ann. rate,
percent)
735. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
United Kingdom
France
735c. Change
over 6-month
spansl
(Ann. rate,
percent)
736. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
736c. Change
over 6-month
spansl
(Ann. rate,
percent)
732. Index ®
(1967 = 100)
732c. Change
over 6-month
spansl
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1979
January
February
March
204.7
207.1
209.1
11.1
12.0
12.9
253.9
253.1
255.1
1.8
3.1
4.6
162.9
163.6
164.4
4.4
4.3
4.7
245.5
247.1
249.4
10.4
10.9
332.9
335.6
338.3
11.4
11.4
13.2
April
May
June
211.5
214.1
216.6
13.2
12.9
13.3
258.6
261.3
261.5
7.3
7.0
5.3
165.3
165.7
166.6
6.0
5.8
5.8
251.8
254.5
256.6
11.9
12.6
11.7
344.1
346.8
352.8
21.5
21.4
22.1
July
August
September
218.9
221.1
223.4
13.4
13.3
13.8
263.8
261.1
264.4
6.7
6.9
6.9
167.7
167.8
168.3
6.0
6.4
6.1
260.0
262.7
264.9
12.7
12.4
12.8
368.0
370.9
374.6
23.2
23.7
21.5
October
November
December
225.4
227.5
229.9
14.5
15.3
15.9
267.7
266.7
268.3
6.0
8.9
10.8
168.7
169.3
170.1
4.0
5.4
5.6
268.1
269.8
272.0
14.2
14.7
15.6
378.5
381.8
384.6
15.4
16.8
17.4
January
February
March
233.2
236.4
239.8
15,7
15.4
14.8
270.8
273.3
275.5
9.9
9.5
9.9
171.0
172.8
173.8
5.6
5.6
5.7
277.2
280.2
283.4
15.0
15.0
14.1
394.1
399.7
405.1
20.4
20.5
20.5
April
May
June
242.5
244.9
247.6
11.7
10.2
9.3
280.2
282.7
283.5
9.5
8.2
7.2
174,9
175.6
176.5
6.9
5.5
4.7
286.7
289.3
291.1
12.9
12.3
11.6
419.0
422.8
426.8
18.5
15.8
14.1
July
August
September
247.8
249.4
251.7
9.4
9.7
9.9
284.2
283.7
288.1
5.6
7.3
176.8
177.0
177.0
4.6
5.0
5.2
295.5
298.4
301.0
11.8
12.2
(NA)
430.4
431.3
434.1
10.6
10.4
October
November
December
253.9
256.2
258.4
9.8
1980
288.5
289.1
(NA)
(NA)
177.3
178.3
179.4
304.3
306.4
(NA)
9.9
436.8
440.3
442.7
1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
KCII
JANUARY 1981
95
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F 1 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Qj STOCK PRICES
Q CONSUMER PRICES-Continued
Year
and
month
748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ®
745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ®
746. France,
index of
stock
prices @
742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ®
747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ®
743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ®
over 6-month
spans '
19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
9.9
108.5
106.9
108.9
416.1
409.9
405.7
135,0
131.9
131.2
160.9
149,9
155,4
211.1
212.2
240.8
52.4
54.8
57.9
138.4
141.1
150.7
Italy
Canada
737. Index ® 737c. Change
over 6-month
spans l
733. Index ® 733c. Change
(1967-100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967-100)
January
February
March
305.1
309.7
313.8
14.5
15.6
15.6
211.2
213.2
215.7
April
May
June
317.8
321.3
323.9
14.9
15.5
17.8
217.2
219.3
220.3
9.5
8.5
8.5
111.0
108.5
110.7
402.9
411.1
402.3
130.6
127.8
121.7
164.5
162.0
171.7
255.7
255.0
241.0
54.1
56.8
58.0
149.5
154.8
168.9
July
August
September
326.7
330.6
339.2
19.2
19.4
21.7
222.1
222.9
224.9
7.9
8.8
9.5
111.7
116.8
118.1
400.6
408.0
412.5
122.0
124.3
125.7
173.7
188.6
207.4
232.8
233.9
236.3
58.8
61.7
63.0
159.4
178.6
191.7
October
November
December
345.5
350.3
356.6
25.8
26.1
23.1
226.5
228.7
230,1
10.0
10.4
113.6
112.8
117.2
408.2
403.4
410.8
123.5
118.3
118.8
187.5
189.1
186.8
238.9
215.6
217.1
62.6
58.6
55.4
175.2
189.3
199.5
January
February
March
367.9
374.3
378.2
23.0
22.6
20.4
231.3
233.3
235.8
10.3
10.6
120.6
125.5
113.9
420.1
425.5
413.0
117.2
123.3
118.1
203.8
207.4
185.4
224.3
239.4
231.6
59.8
61.1
61.1
224.7
256.3
203.2
April
May
June
384.3
388.2
391.7
18.2
17.4
19.2
237.2
240.0
242.7
10.0
11.0
11.5
112.0
117.1
124.6
417.6
422.9
423.8
116.5
118.8
120.6
189.0
201.1
201.4
228.1
230.3
240.7
61.0
61.5
64.8
212.8
216.4
227.5
July
August
September
398.4
402.4
410.9
18.7
21.2
22.7
244.5
246.8
249.0
11.7
12.7
12.0
130.4
134.3
137.6
424.9
429.1
437.6
121.2
121.7
120.0
198.9
199.9
203.0
255.9
256.7
262.6
66.0
74.4
82.7
240.0
232.3
233.5
October
November
December
417.9
426.7
432.2
141,7
147.6
145.2
447.5
447.8
rp443.4
120.6
117,2
rpl!5.8
218.1
rp221.2
rp208.6
267.4
277,5
rp271.1
93.5
99.2
223.3
p220.6
rp220.3
p!45,0
p453.2
P115.6
p!87.3
p251,l
1979
10.9
10.1
9.9
1980
9.9
251.2
254.3
255.8
p94.5
1981
January
February
March
p218.6
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
96
JANUARY
1981
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part I. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Monthly series
Period covered
1
Cl
T/c
C
T/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
MCD
1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
1
5
6
7
Average workweek of production workers mfg
Average weekly initial claims State unemployment insurance
New orders durable goods industries current dollars
. . .
New orders durable goods industries 1972 dollars
9 Construction contracts commercial and industrial
10.
12
13.
14
19.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment current dollars
Index of net business formation
Number of new business incorporations
Current liabilities of business failures (u)
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (u)
Jan.53-Dec.79
do
do
do
do
do
0.47
4.69
3.13
3.09
2.30
8.93
0.42
4.07
2.75
2.74
1.94
8.64
0.16
2.07
1.30
1.19
1.10
1.55
2.57
1.96
2.11
2.29
1.77
5.59
3
3
3
3
3
6
0.92
.69
.66
.73
.64
n
2.23
1.97
1.90
1.79
1.98
1.61
1.50
1.55
1.52
1.50
1.64
1.54
8.97
10.42
10.09
7.88
9.79
9.50
3.78
3.96
4.01
3.96
4.22
3.12
do
do
do
Jan.53-Aug.79
Jan.53-Dec.79
5.66
5.29
1.56
3.39
1.51
2.31
4
2
3
6
2
.85
.88
.75
(M
.65
1.67
2.17
1.86
1.52
2.34
1.49
1.66
1.46
1.49
1.63
10.77
11.96
11.14
9.11
7.88
3.33
3.39
3.49
2.60
3.66
4
1
3
4
3
2
.97
.79
.95
.80
.93
.99
1.64
2.88
1.76
1.74
1.85
1.97
1.49
1.71
1.58
1.52
1.57
1.49
9.50
7.69
14.68
11.54
11.14
11.96
3.27
2.88
3.21
3.33
3.57
3.10
2
1
1
2
1
1
.61
.68
.45
.52
.81
.63
2.04
3.80
5.30
2.67
3.47
4.09
1.43
1.53
1.46
1.53
1.48
1.61
8.50
12.92
21.53
20.19
10.42
14.04
3.13
3.80
5.30
4.81
3.47
4.09
2
1
1
1
2
1
.56
.66
.76
.80
.59
.94
2.76
3.63
3.63
3.20
2.41
2.81
1.55
1.66
1.71
1.59
1.46
1.56
17.00
15.38
19.00
16.15
17.94
12.92
4.54
3.63
3.63
3.20
4.41
2.81
2
2
2
1
1
2
.66
.98
.54
.52
.22
.61
2.20
2.03
2.76
4.36
19.00
1.96
1.52
1.55
1.54
1.47
1.66
1.45
10.77
13.46
7.88
17.00
35.89
15.38
3.58
3.25
4.29
4.36
19.00
3.35
1
1
1
1
1
2
.46
.29
.42
.77
.79
.60
5.05
9.23
7.18
3.85
3.02
2.83
1.53
1.50
1.64
1.64
1.40
1.61
23.07
35.89
19.00
9.50
14.04
8.97
5.05
9.23
7.18
3.85
3.02
4.35
1
1
2
1
1
1
.71
.33
.97
.34
.94
.40
3.33
6.33
2.17
5.87
2.99
5.21
1.49
1.58
1.56
1.64
1.45
1.52
15.38
17.00
12.92
14.68
10.09
16.15
3.33
6.33
3.54
5.87
2.99
5.21
.61
.54
.43
1
2
2
1
1
1
.56
.90
.69
.61
.54
.43
4.04
2.56
2.17
3.71
4.18
5.98
1.59
1.75
1.45
1.77
1.70
1.96
12.42
8.97
10.42
7.51
9.20
10.77
4.04
3.62
3.46
3.71
4.18
5.98
24.
27.
28.
29.
New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars
New private housing units started, total
New building permits, private housing
do
do
do
do
do
do
37
40
41
42
46
47
Number of persons unemployed
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Index of help-wanted advertising
Index of industrial production total
do
do
do
do
do
do
48
51
52
53
54
56.
Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
Personal income less transfer payments 1972 dollars
Personal income 1972 dollars
Wages and salaries in mining mfg and construction 1972 dollars
Sales of retail stores, current dollars
Mfg and trade sales current dollars
do
do
do
do
do
do
57
59
62
65.
66.
69.
Mfg and trade sales 1972 dollars
.
...
Sales of retail stores 1972 dollars
Labor cost per unit of output mfg
Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods
Consumer installment debt
Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures . . .
do
do
do
do
do.
do
70
71
72
73
74
75
Mfg. and trade inventories 1972 dollars
Mfg and trade inventories current dollars
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . . .
Industrial production durable manufactures
Industrial production nondurable manufactures
Industrial production consumer goods
do.
do
do
do
do
do
20 Contracts and orders plant and equipment 1972 dollars
76.
78.
91.
96.
105.
106.
Industrial production, business equipment
Materials and supplies on hand and on order
Average duration of unemployment
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Money supply (M1-B), 1972 dollars
Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars
910.
913.
914
915.
916.
917.
Composite index
Composite index
Composite index
Composite index
Composite index
Composite index
of
of
of
of
of
of
.
...
.
.
2.18
27.06
2.61
1.84
5.61
1.64
5.04
5.04
5.59
4.62
5.29
3.23
.49
.94
2.18
1.65
12.44
3.76
4.62
4.64
5.08
4.00
1.41
1.22
1.59
1.45
1.88
2.05
2.35
1.87
1.26
.97
.26
.12
.22
1.60
.38
.27
.22
1.98
.85
.44
.69
.42
.45
.46
.68
.98
.31
.25
.27
.41
.72
.69
.29
.37
.36
.51
.64
.74
.69
.77
.41
.31
.19
.53
.45
.40
.60
.86
1.04
.93
.89
.61
.69
.93
1.72
.40
.65
.96
1.26
.71
.82
1.07
1.13
3.43
1.35
1.33
.17
.18
.38
.73
.42
.55
.61
.35
2.87
1.05
.37
.63
.90
.94
.53
.53
.86
1.07
1.55
1.24
1.11
.79
2.91
3.19
2.71
1.95
.68
.45
1.01
.81
.63
1.08
.66
.76
.80
1.11
.94
1.30
1.70
1.00
.52
.22
1.27
.46
.29
.42
.77
.79
1.03
.71
.33
1.86
.35
.42
.42
.22
.15
.83
.67
.59
.63
.74
.77
.39
.52
.47
.30
.33
.29
.70
.35
.34
.49
.62
.68
do
do
.71
.79
.37
.37
.57
.69
.64
.54
1
1
.64
.54
3.80
3.76
1.66
1.65
15.38
15.38
3.80
3.76
do
do
do
do
do
do
.67
.36
.52
.49
.25
.11
.27
.28
.40
.33
.66
.76
1
1
1
1
2
1
.40
.33
.66
.76
.98
.49
8.28
8.97
3.44
3.11
2.15
5.13
1.62
1.54
1.63
1.51
1.66
1.52
46.14
21.53
8.07
9.50
8.97
14.04
8.28
8.97
3.44
3.11
3.50
5.13
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
.35
.75
.33
.28
.58
.88
.63
6.59
2.78
6.59
191.00
3.08
2.17
2.54
1.51
1.53
1.64
1.52
1.52
1.53
1.50
21.53
9.50
14.04
191.00
15.92
26.92
11.54
6.59
2.78
6.59
191.00
4.75
3.46
3.98
do
do
do
do
Jan.53-Nov.79
Jan.53-Dec.79
920 Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators
930 Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
2.47
2.59
.
.74
27.56
.47
.30
.32
do
do
do
do
do
do
12 leading indicators
marginal employment adjustments
capital investment commitments
inventory investment and purchasing
profitability
money and financial flows
.90
.24
.37
.34
.94
.40
.56
1.50
1.41
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
223.
320.
322
330
331
332
Personal income, current dollars
Consumer price index, all items (u)
Consumer price index food
Producer price index all commodities ©
Producer price index crude materials
Producer price index intermediate materials
333.
334
335
340.
341.
441.
442
Producer price index, capital equipment
Producer price index finished consumer goods
Producer price index industrial commodities ^)
Average hourly earnings of production workers
Real average hourly earnings of production workers
Total civilian labor force
Total civilian employment
. .
do
do
do
Jan.64-Dec.79
do
Jan.53-Dec.79
do
.43
.19
.62
.34
.42
.37
.63
.38
.38
.47
.38
.53
.25
.31
.33
.12
.26
.12
.15
.19
.25
.25
.36
.35
.36
.53
.17
.16
.20
1.30
1.02
1.62
.49
.35
.75
.33
.28
1.11
1.55
1.22
97
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued
Part I. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes—Continued
Monthly series
Period covered
Cl
T
C
T/c
MCD
T/C
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
MCD
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Continued
444
445
446
447
448
Number unemployed males 20 years and over
Number unemployed females 20 years and over
Number unemployed both sexes 16- 19 years of age
Number unemployed full-time workers
Number employed part-time for economic reasons
Jan.53-Dec.79
do
do
Jan.63-Dec.79
May 55- Dec. 79
4.04
4.33
5.40
2.75
3.99
2.87
3.88
5.09
2.21
3.58
2.39
1.74
1.47
1.48
1.43
1.20
2.23
3.47
1.49
2.50
2
3
4
2
3
517.
525.
543.
548.
557.
Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department military prime contract awards
Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding
Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
Output of defense and space equipment
Jan.53-Dec.79
Jan.53-Nov.79
Jun.53-Dec.79
Feb.68-Dec.79
Jan.53-0ec.79
8.88
8.77
18.16
18.03
1.08
1.89
1.10
1.45
8.09
9.53
1.19
6
6
2
6
1
559
561.
570.
577
578.
Manufacturers' inventories, defense products
Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
Employment in defense products industries . .
Defense Department personnel military (§)
Defense Department personnel, civilian ©
Jan.68-Dec.79
do
Jan.58-Dec.79
Jan.53-Dec.79
do
1.70
1.52
580
588
602
604
606.
612
Defense Department net outlays . . .
Manufacturers' shipments defense products
Exports excluding military aid shipments
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports total
do
Jan.68-Dec.79
Jan.53-Dec.79
Jan.65-Dec.79
do
Jan.53-Dec.79
4.22
3.99
5.45
9.17
5.76
4.35
4.12
3.84
5.11
8.37
5.31
3.99
1.01
1.16
2.48
1.43
1.31
614.
616.
721.
722
723
725.
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Imports of automobiles and parts
OECO European countries, industrial production
United Kingdom industrial production
Canada industrial production
West Germany, industrial production
Jan.65-Dec.79
do
Jan.56-Dec.79
Jan.53-Dec.79
do
do
9.25
8.38
9.43
2.76
2.35
726.
727.
728.
732.
733.
735.
France, industrial production
Italy, industrial production
Japan, industrial production
United Kingdom, consumer prices (u)
Canada consumer prices (g)
West Germany, consumer prices (\3)
736.
737
738.
742.
743
745
France consumer prices (§)
Italy consumer prices (u)
Japan consumer prices (u)
United Kingdom stock prices (§)
Canada stock prices (u)
West Germany stock prices (g)
1.78
1.31
23.04
.95
22.87
.55
.72
.56
.53
10.28
.84
do
do
do
do
do
do
. .
746. France, stock prices ©
747. Italy, stock prices (u)
748. Japan, stock prices @
do. .. .
do
do
do ...
do. . .
. . . . do .
do
do. .. .
do ... .
1.16
.97
.93
1.11
.33
.24
.32
.85
1.12
.81
1.27
1.24
1.58
1.89
1.37
1.58
1.69
.66
.41
.34
.83
.34
.19
.19
.92
.59
.86
.63
.22
.64
.72
1.32
15.77
.76
.70
0.61
2.29
1.74
1.66
1.83
1.78
1.49
1.44
1.47
1.48
1.57
( )
(M
.65
(l)
.76
1.52
1.45
2.77
1.53
3.40
1.50
1.41
1.55
1.53
1.51
11.54
10.73
1
2
1
1
1
.70
.67
.56
.49
.74
3.25
2.31
4.87
3.63
3.94
1.64
1.57
1.59
1.75
1.80
11.00
.77
.84
.78
.84
x
7.69
9.50
7.69
10.15
7.56
9.64
8.35
9.23
3.79
3.34
2.78
3.31
3.15
2.37
2.11
4.17
2.11
3.40
3.25
4.18
4.87
3.63
3.94
.96
.59
.49
.43
1.16
.75
5.47
3.81
4.40
3.38
3.72
3.04
6
4
5
5
4
4
(M
.90
.95
.87
.99
.75
.48
.43
.52
.57
3.04
4.02
1.79
2.62
1.58
2.17
3
4
2
3
2
3
.80
.93
.98
.99
.80
.66
1.88
1.69
3.99
2.94
2.18
2.88
1.48
1.63
1.66
1.58
1.51
1.60
.61
.77
2.58
2.21
3
3
1
1
1
1
.96
.81
.78
.58
.52
.63
3.20
1.92
3.17
6.59
5.38
6.59
1.54
1.59
1.45
1.55
1.61
1.66
14.68
14.04
19.00
17.00
16.15
8.97
5.26
4.52
3.17
6.59
5.38
6.59
.59
.40
.64
.65
.99
.67
8.73
17.94
19.00
10.73
11.14
2.54
2.67
2.21
2.94
1.69
1.66
1.56
1.69
1.66
1.72
9.79
6.73
9.50
6.59
3.88
3.66
3.43
3.88
.70
.79
.64
2.08
2.50
2.81
1.78
1.92
1.64
7.69
8.73
6.87
3.96
4.52
3.93
1.07
.58
.36
.29
.56
.49
.74
.78
.58
.52
.63
3.69
3.43
3.31
2.59
2.82
2.32
2.40
1.75
2.11
1.16
1.08
1.61
1.10
2
1
2
2
2
2
4.28
3.94
3.43
3.56
3.18
2.27
1.95
1.89
2.10
1.83
1.69
1.08
3
3
2
.60
.56
.55
1.05
.40
.61
.54
.89
.85
.67
.84
11.14
1.55
1.47
1.56
1.54
1.53
1.65
7.94
14.61
10.77
10.42
7.88
11.92
10.09
7.78
11.93
10.42
9.42
13.77
16.88
8.07
19.00
17.00
3.06
3.04
3.71
3.57
2.59
3.60
2.64
2.75
5.84
5.44
3.83
7.47
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
'Not shown when MCD is 6.
Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part I
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and
Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic
Research, 1957 (reprinted horn Journal of Business, October 1957).
"I/C " is a measure of relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally^
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", noT/C
ratio is shown for the MCD period.
"Cl" is the average month-to-month percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted
series (i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal, trading-day, and holiday variations).
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number
of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change
between 2 months, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for
the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD
curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted
series.
"C"
series.
is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted
"T" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the
seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to
observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In
deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical
component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
12-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. MCD is
the shortest span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical
component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become
dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as
"6"
A comparison of these ADR measures with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of
whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals, the expected ADR of a
random series is 1.5, and the actual ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over
1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the expected ADR is 2. For example, in a
series with ADR measures of 1.56 for Cl, 1.45 for I, 8.71 for C, and 3.15 for MCD, the 1.56 for Cl indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series reverse sign, on average, about as often as expected in a
random series. The 1.45 for I and 8.71 for C suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been separated
into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. The 3.15 for MCD indicates
that the MCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted data reverses direction, on average, about every 3
months. Thus, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect underlying
short-term trend movements while month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued
Part II. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes
Unit of measure
Monthly series
Period covered
1
Cl
C
I/C
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
T/c
for
MCD
span
C
Cl
MCD
'
1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
2.
3.
4.
21.
Accession rate, mfg
Layoff rate, mfg
Quit rate mfg
Average weekly overtime, production
workers mfg
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable
goods industries
31. Change in book value, mfg. and
trade inventories
...
Per 100 employees
. . do
. . do
Annual rate, billion dollars
do
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries ( § ) . . .
33 Net change in mortgage debt
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on
order 1972 dollars (smoothed)
38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies
on hand and on order, mfg
39. Delinquency rate, consumer installment
loans
43. Unemployment rate, total
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over . . .
Percent
Annual rate, billion dollars
do
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate . .
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising
to unemployment
77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales,
mfg. and trade
85. Change in money supply (M1-B)
90. Ratio, civilian employment to
total population .
92. Change in sensitive prices (smoothed)
. . do
Jan.53-Dec.79
do
do
Hours
....
Jan.56-Dec.79
Billion dollars
. .
Jan.53-Dec.79
Billion dollars
Percent
do
do
Ratio
. . do
Percent
.do
. . do
.14
.07
.12
.06
.06
.04
1.99
2.19
1.44
3
3
2
.10
.09
.04
2.14
.62
.19
0.13
.67
0.12
0.06
.94
6.38
6.32
do
Jan.55-Dec.79
3.53
2.62
2.54
2.38
2.19
Jan.53-Dec.79
2.37
1.07
1.91
.83
2.67
2.56
3.85
1.73
1.58
1.51
11.14
4.46
4.86
7.32
3
.75
3.38
1.66
11.48
5.70
3.28
4
.89
1.68
1.57
7.34
3.20
6.74
6
1
I )
1.58
1.55
11.14
2.92
1.16
2.85
2
3
.67
.93
2.91
1.65
1.52
1.40
6.73
9.34
4.24
3.34
1
.56
3.51
2.26
5.87
3.51
4
.82
1.59
1.48
7.85
3.36
6
2
2
1
C )
.60
.53
1.90
2.69
5.38
1.51
1.50
1.50
9.83
7.51
7.02
2.84
4.35
7.32
1
.69
4.89
1.77
7.69
5.05
.56
Feb.53-Dec.79
.45
.42
.13
Jan.75-Dec.79
Jan.53-Dec.79
do
.08
.16
.07
.08
.12
.05
.01
.10
.05
.15
.08
.12
.69
.92
do
8.07
7.88
.81
.72
3.32
5.64
1.22
1.08
0.81
1
.92
2.65
1.50
10.09
2.65
.99
(M
2.47
13.13
2
6
1.55
1.59
1.47
9.23
9.79
4.02
2.41
.07
.14
1.93
1.78
3
4
.66
.73
1.85
2.78
1.64
2.38
10.09
5.98
4.28
4.44
121.05
70.33
1.72
2
.96
1.92
1.52
8.50
3.07
122.01
92.83
69.66
1.33
2
.75
2.14
1.52
7.34
3.01
.06
.19
.05
.01
.03
.19
.03
.00
.04
.04
.04
.00
1
6
1
2
.76
(x)
.75
.58
3.67
1.71
4.04
2.86
1.60
1.52
2.29
1.58
13.46
3.67
3.53
4.04
4.18
1
6
4
2
3
3
.64
(l)
.78
.61
.72
.72
12.42
2.39
1.54
1.56
1.73
1.91
1.77
8.28
7.02
9.79
6.33
7.88
9.23
12.42
1.65
1.82
2.65
2.74
2.41
3
1
1
1
.73
.65
.95
.86
2.45
6.46
2.87
2.99
1.77
1.85
1.59
1.58
9.23
7.18
8.94
8.73
4.28
6.46
2.87
2.99
do
.03
.02
.02
do
do
.01
.34
.01
.33
.01
.03
do
do
.16
.31
.14
.24
do
146.90
do . . . .
. .
. .
1.86
93 Free reserves (§)
94. Member bank borrowing from
Federal Reserve (u)
95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to
personal income
102 Change in money supply (M2)
104 Change in total liquid assets (smoothed)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2) .
Million dollars
109.
112.
113.
114.
115.
1 16.
Average prime rate charged by banks (§) . . . .
Change in bank loans to businesses
Change in consumer installment debt
Treasury bill rate <u)
Treasury bond yields ©
Corporate bond yields (u) . .
Percent
Annual rate, billion dollars
. . . do
Percent
.do
. . do
. . ..do
. . ..do
.23
.09
.15
.16
.07
.12
.63
.15
.05
.08
117.
118
119
940.
Municipal bond yields (u) . .
Mortgage yields secondary market (u)
Federal funds rate ©
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
. . do
.do . .
.do
Index: 1967=100
. do
do . . . .
Aug.54-Dec.79
Jan.53-Dec.79
.12
.08
.29
.92
.10
.04
.19
.59
.06
.07
.20
.68
1.66
Percent
. . . do
. . do
.15
.20
.14
.19
.05
.07
2.84
2.64
4
4
.78
.67
2.15
2.24
1.59
1.57
7.18
9.50
4.05
4.85
.69
.63
.20
3.19
4
.86
1.85
1.58
7.02
3.33
....
do
Percent
.do.
do
do
Ratio
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
.14
5.06
2.05
.08
4.91
1.92
.13
1.02
.76
4.50
.75
1.06
.64
4.82
3.04
1.04
1.48
1.61
.65
.95
.86
6.73
5.21
8.73
3.21
3.44
3.88
4.65
4.06
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
451. Participation rate, males 20 years and over . . .
452. Participation rate, females 20 years and over . .
453. Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years
of age
. . . do
do
do
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
1
Not shown when MCD is 6.
Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part II
These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for series with zero or negative
data and for other series where it seems appropriate, such as series expressed in percent.
—
Thus, "Cl" is the average month-to-month change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is
computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component
from the seasonally adjusted series,
All other measures have the same meaning as in part I.
99
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part I. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Quarterly series
Period covered
Cl
1
C
T/c
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
QCD
span
Cl
1
C
QCD
1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
8.78
5.42
5.12
.59
3.92
3.59
1.58
4.71
2.86
2.86
.33
1.99
2.01
.73
6.51
4.10
3.74
.42
3.09
2.64
1.28
0.72
.70
.76
.77
.64
.76
.57
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.72
.70
.76
.77
.64
.76
.57
2.74
3.06
2.49
2.49
2.97
2.28
2.89
1.23
1.27
1.27
1.23
1.22
1.27
1.32
3.96
5.35
4.86
4.65
6.69
4.46
5.63
2.74
3.06
2.49
2.49
2.97
2.28
2.89
1.12
6.12
2.83
1.15
1.20
7.06
.35
3.96
.96
.36
.40
3.67
1.01
4.14
2.57
1.07
1.12
5.16
.35
.96
.37
.34
.35
.71
1
1
1
1
1
1
.35
.96
.37
.34
.35
.71
5.63
2.61
4.28
3.96
4.28
2.74
1.35
1.20
1.20
1.22
1.26
1.32
8.23
3.82
7.13
7.13
7.13
4.28
5.63
2.61
4.28
3.96
4.28
2.74
6.99
2.12
2.18
2.77
3.89
5.04
10.17
3.57
.75
1.23
1.22
1.33
.95
5.78
5.19
1.90
1.74
2.37
3.60
4.86
7.32
.69
.40
.71
.52
.37
.19
.79
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.69
.40
.71
.52
.37
.19
.79
2.74
2.97
3.06
3.06
3.57
4.12
2.10
1.32
1.29
1.32
1.23
1.34
1.24
1.20
4.65
6.29
6.29
5.94
7.13
6.69
3.96
2.74
2.97
3.06
3.06
3.57
4.12
2.10
1.91
.96
.96
1.96
1.82
1.05
.36
.32
.35
.41
.32
.35
1.87
.90
.82
1.88
1.79
.95
.19
.36
.42
.22
.18
.37
1
1
1
1
1
1
.19
.36
.42
.22
.18
.37
11.89
4.65
3.69
8.23
35.67
5.63
1.29
1.23
1.34
1.35
1.35
1.39
15.29
9.73
7.64
15.29
107.00
9.73
11.89
4.65
3.69
8.23
35.67
5.63
.86
1.84
1.01
3.18
2.79
1.62
.35
.34
.33
1.56
1.56
.37
.72
1.81
.94
2.46
2.16
1.58
.49
.19
.35
.64
.72
.24
1
1
1
1
1
1
.49
.19
.35
.64
.72
.24
4.46
21.40
6.29
3.34
2.97
17.83
1.45
1.32
1.26
1.22
1.18
1.26
7.64
107.00
9.73
4.86
4.86
53.50
4.46
21.40
6.29
3.34
2.97
17.83
2.11
.89
1.06
4.52
3.99
2.58
.30
.39
.27
2.16
2.01
.73
2.09
.75
1.03
3.64
3.14
2.41
.14
.52
.26
.59
.64
.30
1
1
1
1
1
1
.14
.52
.26
.59
.64
.30
107.00
4.28
21.40
3.34
2.67
4.65
1.23
1.32
1.32
1.37
1.30
1.34
107.00
10.70
35.67
5.35
5.94
6.29
107.00
4.28
21.40
3.34
2.67
4.65
do
do
do
2.10
4.26
4.10
3.39
3.22
2.02
.69
2.20
1.95
2.16
1.96
.56
1.92
3.22
3.24
2.24
2.23
1.93
.36
.68
.60
.96
.87
.29
1
1
1
1
1
1
.36
.68
.60
.96
.87
.29
4.12
2.89
3.45
2.18
2.61
7.13
1.34
1.30
1.35
1.27
1.29
1.29
5.10
5.10
6.29
4.28
5.63
21.40
4.12
2.89
3.45
2.18
2.61
7.13
do
do... .
do. . .
do
do
do... .
1.06
2.23
1.78
2.46
1.24
1.96
.49
1.06
.93
.38
.42
.25
.90
1.89
1.40
2.44
1.16
1.93
.55
.56
.67
.16
.36
.13
1
1
1
1
1
1
.55
.56
.67
.16
.36
.13
2.89
3.06
2.89
26.75
6.69
15.29
1.26
1.26
1.26
1.24
1.29
1.35
4.65
4.65
4.28
35.67
15.29
15.29
2.89
3.06
2.89
26.75
6.69
15.29
2.01
2.07
5.11
3.63
4.64
9.26
1.00
1.03
2.67
.90
2.18
6.58
1.66
1.41
3.99
3.57
3.59
5.68
.60
.73
.67
.25
.61
1.16
1
1
1
1
1
2
.60
.73
.67
.25
.61
.42
3.15
4.65
2.89
35.67
2.67
1.98
1.37
1.43
1.30
1.29
1.37
1.22
5.35
7.13
4.86
107.00
5.10
3.82
3.15
4.65
2.89
35.67
2.67
2.94
IQ 53-IVQ 79
11
16
18.
26
34.
35
49.
New capital appropriations mfg
Corporate profits after taxes current dollars
Corporate profits after taxes 1972 dollars
Ratio price to unit labor cost nonfarm business
Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Net cash flow corporate 1972 dollars
Value of goods output, 1972 dollars
50.
55.
61.
63.
68
79
GIMP, 1972 dollars
PCE, automobiles
Business expenditures new plant and equipment
Unit labor cost private business sector
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj current dollars
do
80.
86
87
88.
89
97.
110.
Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj, 1972 dollars
Nonresidential fixed investment total 1972 dollars
Nonresidential fixed investment structures 1972 dollars
Nonresidential fixed investment, producers' durable equipment, 1972 dollars
Residential fixed investment total 1972 dollars
. .
Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg
Total private borrowing
do
200
213
217
220
224
225
GIMP current dollars
Final sales 1972 dollars
Per capita GIMP 1972 dollars
National income current dollars
Disposable personal income current dollars
Disposable personal income 1972 dollars
227
230
231
232
233
236
Per capita disposable personal income 1972 dollars
PCE total current dollars
PCE total 1972 dollars
PCE durable goods current dollars
. .
PCE durable goods 1972 dollars
PCE nondurable goods current dollars
237
238
239
240
241
242.
PCE services current dollars
PCE nondurable goods 1972 dollars
PCE services 1972 dollars
Gross private domestic investment current dollars
Gross private domestic investment 1972 dollars
Fixed investment, total, current dollars
243
252
253
256
257
260
Fixed investment total 1972 dollars
Exports of poods and services current dollars
Imports of goods and services current dollars
Exports of goods and services 1972 dollars
. .
Imports of goods and services 1972 dollars
Government purchases of goods and services current dollars
261.
262
263
266.
267.
280
Government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars
Federal Government purchases of goods and services current dollars
Federal Government purchases of goods and services 1972 dollars
State and local government purchases of goods and services, current dollars .
State and local government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars . .
Compensation of employees
. .
282.
284.
286.
288
290
292.
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons, with CCAdj
Corporate profits, with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest
Gross saving
Personal saving
do
do
.. . .do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do.
do
do
do
do. . .
do.
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
100
do
do
do
do
. . do
do
do
. .
.
do
do
. . . do
do. . .
do
do
. . do
do
. . do
. do
do
do. .
do
do
. . . .do
do
do
do
do
do.
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued
Part I. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes—Continued
Quarterly series
Period covered
1
Cl
C
7/c
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
2.97
1.26
1.26
1.34
1.32
1.41
1.29
1.27
C
QCD
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Continued
295.
310.
311.
345
346
358
370.
Business saving
Implicit price deflator GNP
Fixed weighted price index gross business product .
Average hourly compensation nonfarm business sector
Real average hourly compensation nonfarm business sector
Output per hour nonfarm business sector
Output per hour, private business sector
IQ 53-IVQ 79
501.
502
511.
512
564.
618.
Federal Government receipts
.
. . .
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures
Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense . .
Merchandise exports, excluding military grants
. . . .do
.
. do .
do
.
. do. . .
do
620.
651.
652.
668.
669.
Merchandise imports, excluding military
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in the U.S
Exports of goods and services, excluding military grants
Imports of goods and services, total
CCAdj
IVA
PCE
do
.do
do
do
do
do
...
.98
1.46
.63
.79
.83
IQ 60-IVQ 79
do
. . .do
do
do.
do
2.95
1.02
..
1.48
.16
.16
.19
.24
.36
.41
2.35
.99
.95
1.44
.58
.66
.71
2.93
2.40
2.54
2.42
2.08
5.29
1.15
3.02
2.58
2.16
2.47
2.40
1.80
3.54
5.36
6.57
6.33
4.39
4.39
2.54
3.92
2.78
2.22
1.88
4.27
5.18
5.62
3.35
3.76
.86
.64
.38
.84
.16
.17
.13
.42
.56
.57
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.45
.40
.26
.16
.47
.85
1
1
1
1
1
1
.45
.40
.26
.16
.47
.85
15.29
35.67
.60
.76
.50
.66
.50
1
1
1
1
1
.60
.76
.50
.66
.50
4.16
2.55
3.29
2.93
4.16
0.63
0.63
.16
.17
.13
.42
.56
.57
15.29
21.40
107.00
7.64
3.06
3.82
4.65
4.65
3.24
2.14
1.43
.35
.29
.27
.32
.30
1.25
1.18
1.20
1.34
1.25
5.94
107.00
35.67
107.00
10.70
5.63
5.94
7.64
9.73
107.00
35.67
2.97
15.29
21.40
107.00
7.64
3.06
3.82
4.65
4.65
15.29
35.67
4.46
4.16
3.24
2.14
7.90
6.08
5.64
5.27
4.16
2.55
3.29
2.93
4.16
13.17
Capital consumption adjustment.
Inventory valuation adjustment.
Personal consumption expenditures.
Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part I
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and
Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic
Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"I/C" is a measure of relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of the period of QCD. When QCD is "4," noT/E
ratio is shown for the QCD period.
"Cl" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted
series or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the unadjusted series.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number
of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change
between 2 quarters, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for
the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the QCD curve. The QCD
curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the seasonally adjusted
series.
"C " is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the
seasonally adjusted series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to
observe cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In
deriving QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical
component over 1-quarter spans (1st quartered quarter, 2d quartered quarter, etc.), 2-quarter spans (1st
quartered quarter, 2d quarter-4th quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are
then computed for the changes over each span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the average
percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at
which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular
movements. All series with a QCD greater than "3" are shown as "4."
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of
whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-quarter intervals in a random series, the
expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of
the time. Over 1-quarter intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is
2.0. For example, in a series with ADR measures of 1.63 for Cl, 1.39 for I, 3.51 for C, and 3.27 for QCD, the
1.63 for Cl indicates that 1-quarter changes in the seasonally adjusted series reverse sign, on average, about as
often as expected in a random series. The 1.39 for I and 3.51 for C suggest that the seasonally adjusted series
has been separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. The 3.27
for QCD indicates that the QCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted series reverses direction, on
average, about every 3 quarters. Thus, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD moving average
usually reflect underlying short-term trend movements of the series, while quarter-to-quarter changes in the
seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
101
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued
Part II. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes
Quarterly series
Unit of measure
T
Cl
Period covered
C
T/c
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
1 5. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of
sales mfg
. .
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to
corporate domestic income
30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars . .
58. Index of consumer sentiment (§)
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans ( § ) . . .
81. Ratio, profits (after taxes) with IVA and
CCAdj to corporate domestic income . . . .
82 Rate of capacity utilization mfg. (FRB) ..
83 Rate of capacity utilization mfg (BEA)
84 Rate of capacity utilization materials
107 Ratio GNP to money supply M1-B
Cents
IQ 53-IVQ 79
0.24
Percent
Annual rate, billion dollars
Index: IQ 1966=100
. . . .do
do
IQ 62-IVQ 77
4.04
3.49
Percent
IQ 53-IVQ 79
. ..do
do
do
do
do
do
Ratio
0.14
.42
do
do
IQ 66-IVQ 79
IQ 53-IVQ 79
do
.27
2.83
2.26
.39
.34
.23
.15
.50
.04
.28
.63
.63
.95
.02
.37
.23
1.50
1.07
2.10
0.16
0.86
1
0.86
2.52
1.32
3.42
2.52
.98
1
2
1
.30
.29
.77
.53
1
1
.77
.53
2.49
2.49
1.23
1.43
4.46
4.28
2.49
2.49
.39
.71
.51
.74
.60
.47
1
1
1
1
1
.71
.51
.74
.60
.47
2.61
4.12
2.75
2.82
3.69
1.24
1.34
1.38
1.37
1.32
4.65
5.10
2.75
3.82
6.29
2.61
4.12
2.75
2.82
3.69
.91
.30
2.45
2.31
1.24
.85
1.58
.04
.89
1.15
.89
.47
.98
2.82
1.73
1.80
1.27
1.29
1.19
4.12
3.24
4.20
2.82
2.59
1.80
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
235 PCE as percent of GNP
245. Change in business inventories,
current dollars
247. Change in business inventories as percent
of GNP .
248. Nonresidential fixed investment as percent
of GNP
249. Residential fixed investment as percent
of GNP
250. Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
251. Net exports as percent of GNP
255. Net exports of goods and services,
1972 dollars
265. Federal Government purchases of goods
and services as percent of GNP
268. State and local government purchases of goods
and services as percent of GNP
283. Proprietors' income, with IVA and CCAdj,
as percent of national income . . . .
285. Rental income of persons, with CCAdj, as
percent of national income
287. Corporate profits, with IVA and CCAdj, as
percent of national income
289. Net interest as percent of national income . . .
293 Personal saving rate
298 Government surplus or deficit total
348. Wage and benefit decisions, first year © . . . .
349. Wage and benefit decisions, life of
contract 61)
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit
510. State and local government surplus
or deficit
565. National defense purchases as
percent of GNP
622. Merchandise trade balance
667. Balance on goods and services
©
CCAdj
IVA
PCE
Percent
do
.25
Annual rate, billion dollars
do
Percent
do
.46
.32
.28
do
do
.15
.08
.12
do
do
.16
.14
Annual rate, billion dollars
do
Percent
do
Annual rate, billion dollars
do
Percent
do
.22
do
do
.12
do
do
.17
3.19
4.22
.07
1.33
2.13
.19
.12
.97
1.59
2.51
1.54
.15
3.34
2.23
2
.50
1.67
1.29
3.45
2.59
1.16
2
.48
1.91
1.29
2.89
2.59
.66
1
.66
3.34
1.29
4.86
3.34
.48
1
.48
3.57
1.24
5.63
3.57
.86
1
.86
2.18
1.26
4.86
2.18
.81
1
.81
2.55
1.20
4.46
2.55
.83
2.18
1.29
5.35
2.18
2.89
1.29
3.96
2.89
.68
1
.68
.06
.10
.59
1
.59
3.82
1.37
5.10
3.82
.09
.14
.69
1
.69
3.24
1.41
4.28
3.24
2
.46
5.94
1.35
3.69
5.89
1
1
2
1
2
.75
.59
.43
.71
.63
3.06
5.63
1.98
2.61
1.52
1.27
1.29
1.22
1.27
1.27
4.65
4.86
3.57
4.28
2.94
3.06
5.63
2.79
2.61
2.71
2
1
.75
.85
1.81
2.49
1.24
1.26
2.76
3.69
2.30
2.49
2
.46
2.38
1.30
4.28
3.66
1
1
1
.49
.92
.92
5.10
2.08
1.72
1.35
1.32
1.27
5.94
3.95
3.95
5.10
2.08
1.72
do
.07
.06
.05
.45
.08
.54
.25
.04
.40
.33
.07
.33
4.77
2.03
2.67
1.55
do
Annual rate, billion dollars
do
IQ 53-IVQ 79
1.09
4.97
3.02
. . . do
1.41
.91
.17
642.82
734.35
1.19
.83
do
do
do
do
IQ 68-IVQ 79
do ...
IQ 60-IVQ 79
do
2.23
.18
.12
do
do
do
Annual rate, billion dollars
Annual rate, percent . . . .
do
.91
1
1.17
do
Percent
Million dollars
do
1
1.27
3.74
1.09
.54
3.56
.96
.86
.08
437.94
479.99
.16
474.35
524.40
1.11
.75
.59
1.20
.71
1.42
1.68
.85
1.11
.49
.92
.92
Measures are based on unadjusted data.
Capital consumption adjustment.
Inventory valuation adjustment.
Personal consumption expenditures.
Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part II
These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for series with zero or negative
data and for other series where it seems appropriate, such as series expressed in percent.
_
Thus, "Cl" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is
computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series,
"T" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component
from the seasonally adjusted series,
All other measures have the same meaning as in part I.
102
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Sept.
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
«Q
910. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS 1
(1967=100)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954. ..
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974. ..
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1956.
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966. ..
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1950. ..
1951...
1952...
1953. . .
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960. ..
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967. ..
1968. ..
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972. ..
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
53.8
49.8
55.1
59.7
58.6
62.6
57.5
67.6
68.3
67.2
62.5
74.5
71.8
71.2
79.9
82.4
54.1
49.3
55.9
59.4
59.0
62.9
57.5
68.2
68.6
67.0
62.8
75.6
70.4
72.6
80.1
82.9
54.5
49.0
57.3
58.6
58.3
62.7
58.1
68.4
68.9
66.5
63.2
75.7
70.5
74.4
79.7
83.6
54.1
48.9
58.5
58.4
58.2
62.1
59.2
68.6
67.3
66.4
64.5
75.7
70.5
75.1
78.5
84.5
54.5
48.9
59.2
57.6
59.3
61.1
60.0
68.8
67.0
66.8
66.3
75.1
70.3
76.1
77.7
84.2
54.0
49.8
60.9
57.2
58.5
61.0
60.7
69.7
67.3
66.9
67.3
74.9
70.9
76.2
78.5
83.8
53.4
51.1
61.6
56.9
60.0
59.8
60.9
70.0
67.5
66.4
68.9
74.4
71.1
77.1
79.0
84.0
52.9
52.7
60.0
57.4
61.4
58.1
61.7
70.5
67.6
65.4
70.3
74.0
71.5
76.2
79.7
85.0
52.6
52.8
59.8
57.4
61.1
57.4
63.3
70.1
68.1
64.1
71.1
72.6
71.3
77.6
79.3
85.5
51.6
53.1
59.2
57.2
61.3
56.6
64.7
70.2
68.1
62.9
72.6
72.2
70,9
78.6
80.1
85.8
50.9
53.6
59.3
57.7
61.8
56.7
65.2
69.5
67.9
62.4
72.3
73.1
70.1
78.8
80.5
86.1
54.3
49.7
55.1
59.8
58.6
62.7
57.3
67.4
68.6
67.2
62.6
74.6
71.8
71.4
79.6
82.2
54.4
48.9
58.3
58.2
58.6
62.0
59.1
68.6
67.7
66.6
64.7
75.5
70.4
75.2
78.6
84.1
53.4
51.2
60.8
57.2
60.0
59.6
61.1
70.1
67.5
66.2
68.8
74.4
71.2
76.5
79.1
84.3
51.7
53.2
59.4
57.4
61.4
56.9
64.4
69.9
68.0
63.1
72.0
72.6
70.8
78.3
80.0
85.8
53.4
50.8
58.4
58.2
59.6
60.3
60.5
69.0
68.0
65.8
67.0
74.3
71.0
75.4
79.3
84.1
86.4
93.3
99.4
95.8
103.3
111.8
104.9
109.0
118.9
132.3
130.1
106.9
124.5
131.9
139.1
142.6
86.9
93.6
100.2
96.0
104.9
111.2
104.1
110.9
120.3
133.4
130.4
106.4
125.7
133.0
140.3
142.3
87.2
93.9
100.6
96.5
105.1
110.5
103.7
113.1
122.1
133.2
130.1
107.1
126.4
135.6
140.3
143.2
88.2
93.6
100.2
97.2
103.9
111.4
103.9
113.5
122.7
132.4
127.7
109.4
126.3
136.0
141.5
140.3
89.0
94.2
99.4
98.0
104.9
111.0
104.0
113.9
122.9
132.4
127.0
111.9
128.0
135.8
141.8
141.4
89.0
94.4
98.5
99.5
105.6
110.2
103.7
114.2
123.2
132.6
124.9
115.5
129.7
135.5
142.5
141.6
89.8
95.0
97.9
100.7
106.4
108.7
103.4
114.0
124.1
132.1
123.2
118.3
130.2
135.0
141.2
141.2
90.2
95.1
96.9
102.6
106.5
108.2
103.6
113.4
125.8
130.9
120.5
119.2
129.9
136.9
142.0
140.1
91.3
95.5
96.2
102.9
108.2
108.3
104.6
113.8
127.8
130.6
116.9
119.9
130.1
138.0
142.9
140.1
91.6
96.4
95.7
103.0
110.1
108.3
104.7
115.3
129.2
130.8
114.2
120.5
129.9
139.1
143.6
137.8
92.4
97.4
95.5
103.5
110.7
107.2
105.1
116.0
130.1
131.1
111.3
121.2
131.8
139.4
142.8
135.6
92.6
98.4
95.2
104.3
111.5
106.2
107.4
117.5
131.6
129.8
109.2
121.7
132.5
140.2
143.0
135.2
86.8
93.6
100.1
96.1
104.4
111.2
104.2
111.0
120.4
133.0
130.2
106.8
125.5
133.5
139.9
142.7
88.7
94.1
99.4
98.2
104.8
110.9
103.9
113.9
122.9
132.5
126.5
112.3
128.0
135.8
141.9
141.1
90.4
95.2
97.0
102.1
107.0
108.4
103.9
113.7
125.9
131.2
120.2
119.1
130.1
136.6
142.0
140.5
92.2
97.4
95.5
103.6
110.8
107.2
105.7
116.3
130.3
130.6
111.6
121.1
131.4
139.6
143.1
136.2
89.6
95.1
98.0
100.0
106.8
109.4
104.4
113.7
124.9
131.8
122.1
114.8
128.8
136.4
141.8
140.1
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
-19!i
16.8
24.7
10.9
14.5
2.1
24.5
-8 . 3
-6.8
0.
23.8
0.
7.1
1.5
12.6
-23.3
-4.7
19.2
-13.1
8.6
1.9
15.8
24.0
-11 . 5
-5.2
1.9
15.7
-19.4
12.6
16.3
17.5
6.9
-11.4
18.9
-5.9
8.5
5.9
0.
11.2
5.4
-3.5
5.9
19.2
-21.0
26.3
3.0
7.5
9.2
-7.1
34.6
-15.0
-13.3
-3.7
13.3
3.6
5.4
-8.6
7.9
1.6
1.7
34.2
-5.8
10.6
-8.5
-2.4
28.2
-4.0
-2.0
-10.9
25.2
3.6
-24.6
-1.8
27.7
0.
0.
11.9
-16.6
13.7
9.2
0.
15.3
-15.3
25.2
-17.7
17.5
3.6
-5.2
7.5
39.1
-9.1
-3.4
17.2
-11.6
-4.2
-10.5
24.5
40.5
-8.0
-15.0
-1.9
14.9
16.9
5. 5
1.8
19.7
-3.1
10.7
1.6
13.1
-5.6
-12.5
36.2
14.7
-6.1
35.5
-21.2
4.0
5.3
3 .6
-8.6
32.6
-7.7
3.4
15.1
7.9
2.9
-10.7
44.8
-27.1
11.1
31.9
-29.3
17.0
8.9
1 .8
-16.6
27.3
-6.3
7.0
-13.1
11.2
15.3
-6.6
2.3
-3.9
0.
-5.7
-13.5
36.0
-6.6
9.2
-21.4
14.5
-20.5
-3.3
24.4
-5.9
7.3
-20.6
7.0
-11.4
-4.1
4.0
-15.5
30.0
1.7
-15.1
11.9
2.0
11.0
10.2
2.1
9.7
-11.3
-20.3
28.5
-6.4
-6.5
16.6
12.8
4.3
4.3
9.5
12.9
7.8
-10.9
3.3
-13.7
19.4
15.3
6.6
2.8
-22.5
31.4
-5.3
-9.0
-3.3
-4.3
7.2
3.9
10.1
2.5
20.3
-6.3
-8.8
23.0
15.1
10.4
2.8
-5.5
12.2
10.5
10.9
-2.5
-4.4
4.2
3.9
4.9
6.4
2.3
-7.3
-4.5
26.6
19.5
-1.8
-2.7
8.2
6.9
26.2
0.
7.9
-22.4
14.7
-3.8
-4.7
9.1
-12.9
10.2
2.3
4.3
6.1
-7.0
-20.0
29.0
-0.9
3.6
10.8
-21.8
-40.7
11.4
8.0
-9.2
10.3
12.2
-4.2
1.2
4.3
2.0
0.
-6.4
31.1
17.4
-1.8
2.6
9.8
-25.1
0.
2.6
-10.3
20.0
8.3
-8.3
-3.4
3.2
3.0
1.8
-18.1
46.2
17.2
-2.6
6.1
1.7
10.2
11.3
7.9
-7.1
15.5
9.5
-15.2
-3.4
-2.1
9.1
-4.4
-15.2
33.3
4.7
-4.3
-10.4
-3.3
50.6
5.5
1.3
-11.6
25.1
1.1
-5.4
2.3
-6.1
17.7
-10.4
-23.3
9.5
-2.7
18.3
7.0
-9.0
26.1
15.7
5.2
-8.3
3.6
20.9
1.1
12.2
4.3
20.8
-2.7
-30.5
7.3
1.9
10.1
7.9
0.
47.5
4.0
11.9
-6.1
1.2
23.2
0.
1.2
17.0
14.0
1.9
-24.5
6.2
-1.8
10.0
6.0
-18.0
7.4
-13.2
15.9
3.4
10.2
8.8
6.5
19.2
-10.4
-5.2
-2.5
10.9
-2.2
1.7
6.8
12.0
-12.0
18.3
0.7
9.3
7.3
5.8
19.7
-5.1
-5.2
2.6
19.5
-14.0
15.0
6.8
12.5
-3.6
-7.8
24.0
-11.4
0.7
1.3
9.5
12.6
-0.6
-5.8
5.2
11.9
-13.5
24.0
4.1
11.8
5.2
5.3
12.0
2.1
5.5
1.8
-11.1
24.0
15.7
10.5
-2.1
-16.5
15.7
3.7
2.6
-1.4
-4.1
5.2
5.7
9.2
5.6
3.1
-3.5
-9.1
23.0
16.6
5.0
0.9
-7.5
16.4
9.7
0.3
0.6
-10.8
8.6
1.3
3.3
6.0
2.3
-1.4
-3.8
17.6
13.4
0.3
-7.2
9.7
5.9
13.0
7.1
-6.3
-23.9
10.8
4.8
-9.0
14.7
10.5
-6.5
3.7
-1.3
15.9
-5.8
-23.0
16.7
1.3
8.0
1.5
-4.1
41.4
5.9
12.7
-4.1
5.6
13.0
-7.4
11.9
13.7
12.5
-2.2
-23.8
6.2
7.9
6.6
0.4
-13.0
5.8
-5.2
2.6
19.6
-13.5
15.3
6.9
12.5
11.0
13.2
-2.5
6.0
6.7
-11.5
4.7
7.5
8.7
2.8
-26.6
7.2
19.0
2.6
-6.5
-17.6
19.2
2.6
13.0
-3.7
9.7
9.0
-10.6
29.7
16.7
14.7
-11.3
-20.4
5.1
6.6
7.1
1.7
-3.5
-9.2
5.2
5.8
9.3
5.6
3.9
-3.4
-9.0
23.0
16.6
5.1
1.0
-6.6
16.8
10.5
0.6
0.7
-10.4
-ii!e
-l&'.9
12.7
-3.6
-7.5
14.7
4.4
5.3
6.8
12.3
-2.1
8.2
-7.4
15.5
7.1
-1 . 8
-7.7
16.7
1.9
-3.6
13.1
2.7
7.2
7.7
6.4
-3.0
9.8
7.5
-4.5
1.6
9.8
12.2
-1.2
-15.2
12.9
9.3
6.2
2.3
-5.0
4.6
AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D
3.0
-3.2
25.8
-11.6
2.0
-11.0
18.6
3.6
-9.0
-1.2
24.2
-2.6
-0.6
20.7
-11.5
6.4
-3.6
6.7
27.6
-9.2
1.4
-10.4
19.1
7.8
-9.0
2.4
28.6
-4.2
2.3
10.0
-5.9
1.0
-5.1
19.2
22.9
-9.9
13.0
-14.0
12.0
8.4
1.2
0.
30.2
-6.7
3.4
11.1
2.6
-2.3
-11.2
34.9
5.5
-1.4
14.9
-18.2
11.8
10.3
3.6
-8.1
26.4
-5.7
7.0
0.5
10.7
3.9
-10.0
26.4
-7.0
1.4
19.0
-21.6
18.3
2.3
4.8
-15.7
24.6
-11.7
2.3
7.6
4.1
8.4
-12.8
16.6
-14.7
2.1
9.0
-19.7
27.4
1.1
3.6
-19.5
23.3
-11.3
-1.1
8.0
5.7
8.9
-14.3
7.0
-4.6
2.1
2.6
-9.3
24.7
-5.6
1.8
-17.1
11.9
-4.8
-7.6
14.4
4.1
5.3
-18.4
11.9
4.1
5.7
9.5
-4.1
21.1
-6.1
-3.5
-10.2
14.8
2.8
-4.4
6.9
10.5
4.3
10.0
2.6
-3.2
8.6
0.
-0.7
-0.4
11.3
8.9
-3.0
-10.0
22.3
7.5
8.7
4.3
-2.5
-29.9
8.5
2.1
-8.1
13.0
1.9
-1.1
0.
3.9
3.7
-1.8
-15.1
35.3
10.9
-0.3
6.4
-4.4
-21.2
7.5
6.1
-8.9
15.2
10.0
-9.3
-1.9
1.8
4.6
-0.9
-13.4
36.7
12.9
-2.9
-0.8
2.6
7.5
5.5
3.9
-9.7
20.1
6.2
-9.7
-1.5
-1.7
9.8
-4.5
-19.0
28.8
6.1
3.3
0.6
-3.6
27.9
10.7
4.7
-9.0
14.4
10.2
-6.7
3.5
-1.4
15.8
-5.9
-23.3
16.1
1.2
7.6
1.1
-4.2
41.0
8.3
6.0
-8.7
9.5
14.7
-1.5
5.1
4.6
17.5
-3.9
-26.2
7.6
-0.9
12.7
7.0
-9.3
25.9
10.1
10.0
-5.7
3.6
16.7
-3.6
5.9
9.5
14.4
0.6
-27.2
6.9
6.0
7.5
2.3
-12.2
23.6
5.8
12.7
-4.1
5.6
12.8
-7.5
11.1
13.7
12.4
-2.4
-23.9
6.1
7.6
6.5
0.3
-13.3
5.1
7.6
13.0
0.4
1.2
6.3
-12.0
17.5
13.1
9.9
-2.1
-23.2
14.0
6.3
0.
-2.8
-8.7
2
8.7
2.3
-8.1
13.1
2.5
-0.8
0.
3.9
3.7
-1.7
-14.8
35.4
11.2
-0.3
6.5
-3.4
-18.5
-9.1
-4.8
16.0
-12.7
3.1
6.2
4.3
2.2
-7.0
27.1
-8.4
-2.7
-3.2
12.4
6.0
-5.7
-4.7
13.4
6.6
-7.0
23.8
-6.8
10.6
'This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user.
-14.1
7.1
-4.4
2.3
2.8
-9.0
25.2
-5.4
1.9
-1.0
24.9
-2.5
-0.6
21.1
-11.3
6.7
-11.2
35.2
9.4
-1.0
17.5
-17.5
12.0
10.4
3.6
-7.8
26.5
-5.7
7.0
1.2
10.7
4.2
18.3
1.9
9.3
7.4
6.0
19.9
3.3
-3.2
26.0
-11.4
3.3
-10.8
18.7
3.6
910-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS 1
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, P E R C E N T )
1948...
1949...
III Q
55.0
50.0
54.3
60.4
58.2
62.5
56.8
66.4
69.0
67.5
62.4
73.6
73.1
70.5
78.9
81.3
910-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS 2
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
II Q
19.4
-2.4
6.7
5.8
7.3
17.2
-5.4
-5.4
1.8
14.1
-9.9
13.6
5.9
12.1
0.5
-1.2
26.8
-9.7
0.2
-8.2
16.7
5.8
-7.9
-1.2
22.1
-0.1
-1.8
18.2
-8.1
6.0
-8.8
26.8
7.1
-3.3
15.6
-17.9
14.0
7.0
3.2
-7.9
27.1
-8.0
4.2
6.4
5.8
3.3
-15.2
11.8
-5.1
3.3
7.0
-11.0
24.4
-3.5
0.6
-15.6
16.7
-4.4
-4.4
9.8
6.8
6.2
12.1
-3.0
7.4
-7.8
15.6
6.6
-2.4
-7.5
16.9
0.4
-2.9
12.0
2.6
6.9
6.3
4.1
8.2
4.6
3.6
-1.0
-8.0
21.5
15.2
5.3
-2.8
-4.8
12.7
8.8
3.3
-2.4
-12.9
8.7
3.6
-6.7
12.3
4.0
-3.7
-0.8
5.7
5.7
-1.9
-12.8
31.4
10.4
1.8
3.3
-1.4
-14.5
8.2
4.9
-9.1
14.7
10.4
-6.0
2.4
0.5
14.4
-4.8
-22.8
17.5
2.1
7.9
2.9
-5.7
31.6
7.8
11.9
-3.1
3.5
11.9
-7.7
11.5
12.1
12.2
-1.3
-24.8
9.0
6.6
4.7
-0.1
-11.4
7.8
6.1
-2.7
8.7
7.5
-4.6
1.3
10.0
11.9
-0.7
-15.8
13.3
8.0
5.8
2.4
-5.2
-11 ".0
This series contains revisions b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1979
...
e!e
(JANUARY 1981)
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
920. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS1
(1967=100)
II Q
Annual
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
50.2
49.8
48.2
57.7
58.0
63.8
60.2
62.1
68.4
69.7
64.6
67.3
72.0
67.4
72.3
74.8
50.1
49.3
47.9
57.5
58.9
64.3
60.2
62.5
68.3
70.2
63.3
68.0
71.8
67.1
73.0
75.4
50.6
48.8
49.4
57.7
58.9
64.9
59.6
63.7
68.3
70.1
62.4
69.0
71.2
67.6
73.5
75.7
50.2
48.4
50.5
58.0
58.7
64.9
59.3
64.5
68.9
69.4
61.4
70.0
71.4
67.9
73.9
76.3
50.5
47.8
51.7
57.9
58.9
65.0
59.1
65.4
68.5
69.1
61.6
70.8
71.1
68.6
74.0
76.6
51.4
47.5
52.9
58.0
58.5
64.7
59.2
65.7
68.5
69.2
62.4
71.1
70.7
69.6
73.9
77.0
51.5
46.9
54.9
57.4
57.5
64.9
59.0
66.4
66.1
69.2
63.4
70.4
70.3
69.7
74.3
77.1
51.6
47.4
56.6
57.7
60.0
64.1
59.0
66.3
68.3
69.2
64.0
68.4
69.9
70.4
74.5
77.3
51.5
48.1
55.9
57.4
61.7
63.4
59.3
66.9
69.0
68.6
64.6
68.1
69.6
70.4
74.5
77.7
51.6
46.0
56.1
57.7
62.5
63.1
59.6
67.5
69.7
67.9
65.0
67.9
69.3
71.3
74.7
78.3
51.3
46.9
55.9
57.9
62.9
62.0
60.7
67.9
69.6
66.8
66.5
68.5
68.5
72.3
75.1
78.0
50.8
47.5
57.2
57.9
63.4
60.9
61.4
68.3
70.0
65.6
66.2
71.1
67.5
72.7
74.8
78.6
50.3
49.3
48.5
57.6
58.6
64.3
60.0
62.8
68.3
70.0
63.4
68.1
71.7
67.4
72.9
75.3
50.7
47.9
51.7
58.0
58.7
64.9
59.2
65.2
68.6
69.2
61.8
70.6
71.1
68.7
73.9
76.6
51.5
47.5
55.8
57.5
59.7
64.1
59.1
66.5
67.8
69.0
64.0
69.0
69.9
70.2
74.4
77.4
51.2
46.8
56.4
57.8
62.9
62.0
60.6
67.9
69.8
66.8
65.9
69.2
68.4
72.1
74.9
78.3
50.9
47.9
53.1
57.7
60.0
63.8
59.7
65.6
68.6
68.8
63.8
69.2
70.3
69.6
74.0
76.9
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971. ..
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
78.9
85.5
93.7
99.3
102.8
108.7
110.3
108.3
113.8
124.8
127.7
115.4
120.3
126.3
134.0
144.8
79.7
86.1
94.4
98.8
103.5
109.4
110.3
108.1
114.2
126.1
127.0
113.7
121.6
127.6
135.0
144.9
79.7
87.0
95.5
98.9
103.9
109.9
110.4
108.5
115.4
126.7
126.9
112.3
122.4
129.7
136.9
146.6
80.7
87.4
95.6
99.2
104.2
110.2
110.1
108.9
116.4
126.6
126.6
112.6
123.3
130.0
139.3
144.1
81.3
88.0
96.1
99.0
105.0
110.3
109.7
109.3
116.9
126.9
127.0
113.4
123.4
130.6
139.5
145.6
81.5
88.6
97.1
99.2
105.8
110.8
109.2
109.5
116.6
127.2
127.1
114.2
123.6
131.3
140.1
145.0
82.1
89.5
97.4
99.5
106.3
111.5
109.3
109.3
117.5
127.7
126.9
115.1
124.0
131.7
140.5
145.4
82.7
89.8
97.6
100.3
106.4
111.8
108.9
109.0
119.0
127.2
126.1
116.7
124.3
131.9
141.4
145.0
83.3
90.3
97.8
100.4
106.7
111.9
108.7
109.8
119.4
127.9
125.4
117.5
124.3
132.6
141.4
144.9
82.3
91.4
98.3
100.3
107.4
112.4
106.4
109.9
121.3
128.9
124.2
117.9
124.1
133.8
143.0
145.1
83.8
92.2
98.3
101.9
108.1
111.4
105.4
110.8
122.6
129.7
121.2
118.4
125.6
134.7
144.3
145.0
85.3
93.2
98.5
103.2
108.5
111.5
107.3
112.0
123.9
129.0
117.7
118.9
127.1
135.7
145.5
145.2
79.4
86.2
94.5
99.0
103.4
109.3
110.3
108.3
114.5
125.9
127.2
113.8
121.4
127.9
135.3
145.4
81.2
88 .0
96.3
99.1
105.0
110.4
109.7
109.2
116.6
126.9
126.9
113.4
123.4
130.6
139.6
144.9
82.7
89.9
97.6
100.1
106.5
111.7
109.0
109.4
118.6
127.6
126.1
116.4
124.2
132.1
141.1
145.1
83.8
92.3
98.4
101.8
108.0
111.8
106.4
110.9
122.6
129.2
121.0
118.4
125.6
134.7
144.3
145.1
81.8
89.1
96.7
100.0
105.7
110.8
108.8
109.4
118.1
127.4
125.3
115.5
123.7
131.3
140.1
145.1
920-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS2
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951.. .
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960. ..
1961...
1962...
1963...
-21.2
19.2
11.0
2.1
7.8
-13.0
14.6
1.8
-5.0
-16.8
21.9
16.3
-1.8
-6.4
0.
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967. ..
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971. ..
1972. ..
1973...
1974. ..
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978. ..
1979...
1980...
4.7
2.8
6.6
10.2
-4.6
2.2
-12.2
11.8
21.1
9.1
-11.4
-21.1
15.1
-7.3
-14.0
-5.6
7.7
-2.4
-11.4
-7.2
-4.1
20.3
9.8
0.
8.0
-1.7
9.0
-21.6
13.2
-3.3
-5.2
12.3
10.1
12.9
8.8
9.3
-5.9
8.5
8.0
0.
-2.2
4.3
13.2
-6.4
-16.3
13.8
13.1
9.3
0.8
-5.6
12.7
-11.5
44.8
4.3
0.
11.8
-11.3
25.6
0.
-1.7
-15.8
19.1
-9.6
9.3
8.5
4.9
-9.1
-9.4
30.2
6.4
-4.0
0.
-5.9
16.2
11.1
-11.3
-17.6
18.8
3.4
5.5
6.7
9.9
7.4
-13.9
32.6
-2.0
4.2
1.9
-4.0
18.1
-6.7
-5.1
4.0
14.6
-4.9
13.1
1.6
4.8
23.6
-7.3
31.7
2.1
-7.9
-5.4
2.0
5.6
0.
1.7
16.7
5.2
-6.5
19.0
-1.6
6.4
2.4
-14.1
56.1
-11.7
-18.7
3.8
-4.0
13.6
-34.8
0.
21.0
-11.2
-6.6
1.7
6.7
1.6
2.4
13.6
44.2
6.5
66.6
-13.8
0.
-1.8
48.1
0.
12.0
-29.2
-6.6
12.7
3.3
3.2
0.
13.3
14.9
1.2
4.7
5.6
1.1
4.5
13.4
5.9
-0.9
-13.8
8.2
21.6
18.3
15.0
-15.3
16.1
5.7
1.3
3.7
3.5
3.3
-3.2
4.5
10.9
-0.9
-2.8
3.3
9.2
2.8
23.2
-18.6
-20.4
9.3
8.6
6.5
-2.4
9.6
1.1
-4.3
4.5
5.3
2.9
3.9
8.9
1.0
5.7
1.7
13.2
-21.4
3.0
8.5
13.2
2.5
9.5
5.6
-5.3
2.2
-3.0
2.9
0.9
8.8
2.0
6.6
5.3
-4.8
-10.7
9.2
12.9
3.8
3.7
5.8
7.8
1.1
-2.2
9.7
4.8
-1.9
9.9
4.0
3.7
3.5
3.4
0.9
9.1
4.1
2.5
10.1
1.1
3.3
-4.3
-3.2
16.4
-4.6
-7.3
18.0
2.9
1.8
8.0
-3.3
-0.9
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
-2.3
19.2
-13.9
-6.1
39.8
-12 . 3
6.3
11.4
13.0
-9.9
11.8
-5.1
-5.0
0.
0.
6.4
2.4
-41.5
4.4
6.5
16.7
-5.5
6.2
11.3
12.9
-11.6
7.7
-3.5
-5.1
16.5
3.3
9.7
-6.8
26.2
-4.2
4.2
8.0
-19.0
24.5
7.3
-1.7
-17.8
31.5
11.1
-13.0
18.2
6.6
-4.5
-11.1
16.5
31.8
0.
10.0
-19.3
14.8
7.3
7.1
-19.5
-5.3
56.4
-16.2
6.8
-4.7
9.6
-14.7
18.9
3.7
7.5
9.8
-8.1
16.1
0.
0.8
-18.1
18.1
1.1
0.8
4.8
5.0
-10.2
31.5
9.1
6.9
2.5
1.2
3.4
1.1
-2.2
9.2
4.1
6.8
-6.5
8.5
0.
6.6
0.
-0.8
21.1
-13.5
15.6
6.3
-1.2
8.2
5.5
-22.6
1.1
20.9
9.8
-10.9
4.2
-1.9
11.4
14.5
1.7
13.8
24.2
11.0
0.
20.9
8.1
-10.2
-10.7
10.3
13.6
7.7
-25.4
5.2
15.5
8.4
11.5
-0.8
6.2
23.7
13.8
2.5
16.4
4.5
1.1
23.9
13.8
13.5
-6.3
-29.6
5.2
15.3
9.3
10.4
1.7
7.9
5.9
8.3
10.3
1.8
2.9
5.3
-3.7
4.7
12.9
9.4
-6.2
-17.1
12.4
9.1
4 .5
3.4
-4.4
9.5
7.6
7.0
1.3
7.5
3.3
7.3
920-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS2
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953. ..
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
...
-14." 7
8.8
12.0
7.1
9.2
-11.1
12.4
2.4
3.5
-19.4
9.3
20.7
-7.9
3.9
1.6
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972. ..
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
9.0
11.4
9.9
2.0
6.4
4.9
-3.9
10.6
12.9
11.9
-8.1
-22.5
11.3
6.5
0.9
1.7
1.1
-14.8
17.0
3.5
7.1
9.8
-8.3
15.8
0.
0.6
-18.1
18 .0
0.6
0.6
4.5
4.9
5.7
8.2
10.2
1.6
2.7
5.3
-3.9
4.5
12.7
9.4
-6.4
-17.1
12.3
8.4
3.6
3.1
-4.9
104
-2.6
-1.2
-2.6
13.3
1.5
-4.9
1.0
12.9
-2.7
12.5
2.2
7.0
-4.3
3.7
4.4
1.6
0.7
7.0
4.1
5.0
10.1
-3.4
-17.5
-5.2
0.4
10.7
3.6
11.6
-14.6
15.2
8.6
6.1
-16.3
11.3
21.3
-11.4
13.8
1.7
4.9
-4.6
22.5
1.4
11.4
-3.3
1.3
11.4
4.1
-5.9
2.3
9.3
-4.8
8.0
3.0
5.2
9.1
8.0
2.9
5.0
3.4
4.1
-1.8
1.3
10.1
2.3
-5.2
12.1
2.3
4.0
3.8
-0.2
7.0
11.5
13.5
2.9
12.0
6.9
-1.2
-3.1
8.4
16.0
3.7
-22.0
4.9
9.6
9.7
12.1
0.9
9.3
9.0
9.3
5.8
5.0
5.2
2.9
-3.2
4.5
10.8
4.3
-8.2
1.7
7.1
7.0
7.6
0.2
-1.4
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
0.
-10.8
20.5
2.1
4.9
7.1
-5.8
16.4
3.0
-1.7
-18.4
17.0
-3.3
3.0
9.2
8.3
3.2
-11.6
35.7
2 .8
0.
4.4
-7.1
19.9
1.2
-6.1
-10.3
17.5
-3.8
9.2
5.6
6.5
6.5
-10.2
31.5
2.1
-2 .7
-1.2
-2.7
13.2
1.2
-5.0
0.
12.7
-2.8
12.4
2.2
7.0
10.8
-11.8
39.7
-4.1
-7.9
0.
-2.0
12.3
-15.3
-1.1
13.7
2.3
-6.0
11.0
2.2
4.3
9.0
-3.3
43.6
-1.4
7.7
-5.4
-0.7
5.6
-1.2
0.6
16.5
-12.9
-6.6
10.9
2.7
3.7
0.8
5.1
24.7
-4.1
23.7
-7.8
0.7
7.5
3.0
-3.4
14.9
-15.8
-6.1
4.7
3.3
3.7
0.8
-7.5
9.0
2.1
39.6
-10.6
4.1
6.8
23.6
-7.3
10.5
-13.5
-5.6
9.5
2.2
6.4
-2.3
-4.2
-4.9
1.4
20.8
-12.5
12.0
10.0
7.8
-13.2
16.6
0.6
-7.8
11.2
3.3
3.7
-5.3
-4.9
9.6
3.5
11.5
-14.9
14.9
8.6
5.9
-16.4
10.3
18.8
-11.5
13.7
1.6
4.7
-13.2
20.5
11.9
2.1
8.6
-17.2
17.9
5.4
0.
-18.1
14.9
26.4
-10.5
5.7
0.5
3.1
9.4
9.2
8.4
-0.4
5.6
5.6
-0.7
2.2
9.5
5.9
-3.4
-9.4
10.4
12.2
16.8
-1.9
-14.0
8.3
9.1
7.4
0.8
5.9
3.3
-2.2
4.5
9.8
2.6
0.
-1.1
6.1
9.7
14.0
1.9
-19.1
9.3
7.6
6.9
1.2
7.5
3.3
-4.3
3.7
4.2
1.6
0.6
6.9
4.0
5.0
9.7
-4.3
-17.7
7.1
10.0
7.7
1.2
8.3
4.8
-2.9
1.5
3.8
3.5
1.0
9.2
2.3
5.3
3.5
3.7
-10.9
7.1
8.4
6.4
5.4
5.4
5.6
-2.9
-1.1
7.4
0.9
-2.8
12.2
2.9
4.0
5.6
-1.6
-3.7
9.1
7.9
2.9
4.9
3.4
4.0
-1.8
1.1
10.0
2 .2
-5.2
12.1
2.3
4.0
3.8
-0.3
6.6
1.0
8.8
3.7
3.3
4.2
3.3
-10.2
2.2
13.6
3.8
-8 .2
10.1
0.3
6.5
7.3
-0.8
11.0
5.4
11.1
2.9
6.5
6.5
-1.4
-12.2
6.8
12.7
8.1
-14.7
6.0
4.2
8.8
8.5
0.
13.5
10.0
13.5
2.9
11.6
6.9
-1.4
-5.1
8.3
15.9
3.5
-22.4
4.9
9.3
9.7
12.1
0.8
9.2
16.5
10.5
4.1
10.3
4.9
-7.3
7.3
15.0
12.1
-3.7
-25.5
8.4
7.3
0.6
5.1
2.8
This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user.
2.2
0.8
6.2
28.8
-3.8
29.2
-7.4
0.8
7.7
8.8
-3.3
14.9
-15.2
-6.1
4.8
3.3
3.7
6.8
-13.4
15.4
5.9
6.4
8.7
-8.4
14.9
1.8
0.8
-18.6
14.8
6.0
-1.4
5.9
4.9
-11.2
35.6
8.0
9.6
9.5
1.1
4.9
5.3
-2.8
5.8
11.7
9.1
-6.0
-16.3
11.3
9.0
7.1
1.0
-5.9
8.2
8.9
7.3
1.1
7.2
3.8
This series contains revisions beginning with 1979.
0.3
-3.5
1.1
-3.9
15.1
-4.3
-4.1
1.1
10.8
-4.2
10.9
3.3
5.9
-3.1
3.2
5.9
2.6
0.5
5.0
4.1
6.7
9.1
0.4
-15.9
3.5
-1.9
25.8
-1.1
23.7
-7.9
1.4
6.6
8.5
-3.4
14.0
-14.1
-6.1
8.4
2.7
4.6
-6.9
3.8
5.5
2.3
13.6
-14.9
14.9
8.0
4.6
-15.9
13.9
15.3
-9.9
10.2
1.8
3.8
-5.7
20.6
1.8
10.0
-3.3
1.0
11.2
2.6
-5.6
2.6
6.7
-3.6
7.0
3.4
4.8
5.7
8.4
4.3
4.5
4.3
4.3
-5.0
0.7
10.3
2.3
-5.4
11.5
1.8
4.8
5.6
-0.9
4.6
10.6
11.7
3.3
9.5
6.1
-3.4
-3.3
10.0
13.6
2.6
-20.9
6.4
6.9
6.4
8.6
1.2
8.2
9.6
6.1
4.0
5.6
2.5
-3.6
4.9
10.4
4.1
-7.9
1.6
6.1
6.7
7.6
0.4
(JANUARY 1981)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
May
June
July
Sept.
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
930. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS1
(1967=100)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951. ..
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960. ..
1961...
1962...
1963...
46.1
49.5
47.4
53.9
60.4
64.7
67.2
61.9
68.1
73.7
74.3
68.2
74.1
76.1
73.3
76.4
46.4
49.6
47.2
54.7
60.4
65.4
66.6
62.0
68.4
73.3
73.2
68.4
75.4
75.8
73.1
76.6
46.7
49.4
47.0
55.5
60.8
65.9
65.8
62.5
69.4
73.5
72.8
68.7
76.2
75.2
73.6
76.7
46.9
49.1
47.3
56.2
60.6
67.0
65.3
62.2
70.4
74.0
71.9
69.2
76.4
74.2
74.0
76.6
47.0
49.0
47.9
57.0
61.4
67.4
64.5
62.7
71.4
74.1
70.2
69.9
77.2
73.8
74.3
76.8
47.5
48.6
48.1
57.9
62.4
67.4
63.7
63.7
71.9
74.3
69.0
70.9
77.7
73.1
74.9
77.2
48.4
48.2
48.3
58.1
62.2
67.9
63.3
64.1
73.0
74.4
68.4
71.8
77.4
72.6
75.1
77.8
48.9
47.8
49.2
58.6
62.0
67.9
62.3
65.6
72.0
75.1
67.7
73.0
77.2
72.6
75.4
78.0
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979. ..
1980...
79.6
83.9
90.3
99.9
100.8
108.0
118.0
108.7
105.4
112.5
132.9
140.6
119.5
120.2
134.1
157.4
80.2
84.5
91.5
99.7
101.5
108.8
118.1
108.2
104.6
114.2
131.8
135.9
119.0
121.0
135.9
158.5
80.5
85.4
92.5
100.2
101.5
109.7
117.6
107.3
104.9
115.9
131.5
132.4
118.7
121.7
137.2
158.4
80.9
86.1
93.5
99.7
102.3
111.2
115.6
106.5
105.6
118.2
135.5
129.0
118.7
122.3
137.8
161.8
80.8
86.7
94.5
99.8
103.7
112.1
115.5
106.7
106.3
119.5
139.4
126.9
119.2
123.1
140.0
162.5
81.2
86.9
95.6
100.1
104.1
114.4
115.9
105.8
106.9
121.7
140.4
122.4
120.1
125.0
142.0
163.6
81.0
87.1
96.6
100.2
103.9
115.1
115.7
107.1
106.9
124.4
142.2
122.7
120.4
125.2
143.5
164.8
81.9
87.8
97.5
99.8
104.4
115.4
116.0
108.1
107.2
127.4
142.6
122.4
120.0
126.5
144.5
166.4
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967. ..
1968. ..
1969. ..
1970. ..
1971...
1972...
1973. ..
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977. . .
1978...
1979...
1980...
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
49.1
47.6
50'. 4
58.8
62.3
68.4
61.8
66.2
72.4
75.7
68.0
73.9
76.7
72.8
75.7
78.2
82.8
87.5
97.6
100.0
104.6
116.0
115.3
108.1
108.1
129.6
143.2
122.1
121.1
127.8
146.4
170.6
48.5
48.1
51.3
59.0
62.6
68.2
61.5
66.8
72.5
74.8
68.0
74.7
76.4
72.7
76.1
78.8
49.4
47.5
52.6
59.2
63.0
67.9
61.8
67.5
73.3
75.2
67.8
74.6
76.6
72.3
76.5
79.6
49.1
47.4
52.8
59.8
63.9
67.7
61.8
67.4
73.1
75.2
68.3
74.1
76.9
72.5
76.5
79.9
46.4
49.5
47.2
54.7
60.5
65.3
66.5
62.1
68.6
73.5
73.4
68.4
75.2
75.7
73.3
76.6
47.1
48.9
47.8
57.0
61.5
67.3
64.5
62.9
71.2
74.1
70.4
70.0
77.1
73.7
74.4
76.9
48.8
47.9
49.3
58.5
62.2
68.1
62.5
65.3
72.5
75.1
68.0
72.9
77.1
72.7
75.4
78.0
49.0
47.7
52.2
59.3
63.2
67.9
61.7
67.2
73.0
75.1
68.0
74.5
76.6
72.5
76.4
79.4
47.8
48.5
49.1
57.4
61.8
67.2
63.8
64.4
71.3
74.4
70.0
71.4
76.5
73.6
74.9
77.7
82.9
88 .2
97.8
99.5
104.5
116.9
114.2
107.3
108.9
129.6
143.1
122.7
120.7
129.4
148.1
175.9
82.3
88.9
99.0
99.9
105.2
116.7
112.7
106.6
109.5
130.0
141.9
120.6
120.2
131.1
152.7
179.1
83.2
89.9
99.4
101.0
106.8
117.3
111.1
106.6
110.2
131.5
141.9
120.1
119.9
131.7
155.2
177.9
80.1
84.6
91.4
99.9
101.3
108.8
117.9
108.1
105.0
114.2
132.1
136.3
119.1
121.0
135.7
158.1
81.0
86.6
94.5
99.9
103.4
112.6
115.7
106.3
106.3
119.8
138.4
126.1
119.3
123.5
139.9
162.6
81.9
87.5
97.2
100.0
104.3
115.5
115.7
107.8
107.4
127.1
142.7
122.4
120.5
126.5
144.8
167.3
82.8
89.0
98.7
100.1
105.5
117.0
112.7
106.8
109.5
130.4
142.3
121.1
120.3
130.7
152.0
177.6
81.4
86.9
95.5
100.0
103.6
113.5
115.5
107.2
107.0
122.9
138.9
126.5
119.8
125.4
143.1
166.4
14.5
-7.9
21.1
6.4
-0.5
6.2
-11.3
17.1
3.9
7.8
-5.4
18.0
-5.0
-1.5
4.4
5.3
1.3
-1.0
21.1
7.1
10.8
-4.1
0.1
7.6
4.2
-2.3
1.9
1.5
1.1
-1.5
4.3
9.0
-3.1
12.2
13.5
7.2
6.3
-8.5
9.5
9.0
3.1
-8.7
8.9
4.1
-5.5
5.6
4.5
8.4
3.0
8.8
-0.4
2.0
5.7
-2.0
9.2
4.7
28.7
8.4
-0.9
3.6
9.4
13.0
18.8
-7.6
2 .4
11.4
7.8
4.4
9.0
4.7
-13.8
-5.4
8.0
6.2
-3.5
-5.8
-3.9
12.9
26.9
20.3
164.3
4.4
8.2
10.7
1.8
6.0
10.1
-4.9
-3.5
3.6
19.7
9.1
-14.3
0.
10.0
18.2
15.5
41.7
930-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS 2
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952. ..
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961. ..
1962. ..
1963...
II Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
10.2
0.
28.1
12.7
16.1
-8.5
2.0
13.2
10.3
-13.5
-1.7
0.
-11.8
14.1
-1.6
8.1
2.5
-4.9
19.3
0.
13.8
-10.2
2.0
5.4
-6.3
-16.4
3.6
23.2
-4.6
-3.2
3.2
8.0
-4.7
-5.0
19.0
8.2
9.6
-13.5
10.1
19.0
3.3
-6.4
5.4
13.5
-9.1
8.5
1.6
5.3
-7.0
7.9
16.2
-3.9
22.0
-8.7
-5.6
18.7
8.5
-13.9
9.1
3.2
-14.8
6.7
-1.6
2.6
-2.4
16.3
18.5
17.0
7.4
-13.7
10.1
18.4
1.6
-25.0
12.8
13.3
-6.3
5.0
3.2
13.5
-9.4
5.1
20.7
21.4
0.
-13.9
20.9
8.7
3.3
-18.7
18.6
8.1
-10.8
10.1
6.4
25.3
-9.4
5.1
4.2
-3.8
9.3
-7.3
7.8
20.0
1.6
-10.0
16.3
-4.5
-7.9
3.3
9.7
13.1
-9.5
24.8
10.8
-3.8
0.
-17.4
32.0
-15.3
11.9
-11.6
22.0
-3.1
0.
4.9
3.1
5.0
-4.9
33.5
4.2
6.0
9.2
-9.2
11.5
6.9
10.0
5.4
15.8
-7.5
3.4
4.9
3.1
-13.7
13.4
23.7
4.2
5.9
-3.5
-5.7
11.4
1.7
-13.4
0.
13.8
-4.6
-1.6
6.5
9.6
24.7
-14.0
35.0
4.1
7.9
-5.2
6.0
13.3
14.1
6.6
-3.5
-1.6
3.2
-6.4
6.5
12.9
-7.0
-2.5
4.7
12.9
18.6
-3.5
0.
-1.8
-3.2
0.
9.2
-7.8
4.8
3.4
0.
4.6
2*!7
-3.3
22.1
7.0
13.2
-10.7
4.7
12.5
2.4
-12.1
2.4
12.2
-8.5
6.5
1.1
7.1
-6.3
9.8
18.5
11.5
9.8
-12.1
8.5
15.3
4.5
-19.2
13.5
8.2
-10.6
7.3
2 .7
-4.4
10.6
5.5
6.2
-2.4
14.3
7.4
-23.1
-12.7
28.1
13.5
-10.5
-5.8
3.0
24.2
18.4
3.4
9.4
8.9
17.2
-2.4
8.7
9.3
1.0
-5.4
-8.7
19.7
-9.5
-33.5
-4.9
8.3
17.4
8.7
17.4
4.6
13.6
13.9
6.2
0.
10.4
-5.0
-9.5
3.5
19.4
-2.7
-26.9
-3.0
7.2
12.1
-0.8
81.4
6.1
10.3
13.8
-5.8
9.9
17.7
-18.6
-8.6
8.3
26.6
43.3
-26.8
0.
6.1
5.4
29.0
47.0
-1.5
8.7
13.6
1.2
17.7
10.2
-1.0
2.3
8.2
14.0
40.6
-17.9
5.2
8.1
20.9
5.3
-55.2
6.1
2.8
14.9
3.7
4.7
27.6
4.2
-9.7
7.0
24.5
9.0
-35.2
9.4
20.2
18.6
8.4
-64.1
-2.9
2.8
13.3
1.2
-2.3
7.6
-2.1
15.8
0.
30.1
16.5
3.0
3.0
1.9
13.4
9.2
-29.8
14.2
10.1
11.8
-4.7
5.9
3.2
3.2
11.8
3.4
33.1
3.4
-2.9
-3.9
13.2
8 .7
12.3
-13.1
14.0
-4.0
1.2
2.4
2.3
6.4
-7.0
0.
10.6
22.8
5.2
-2.9
11.6
13.1
17.0
34.9
20.2
1.5
10.0
2.5
-5.8
-1.1
9.7
-10.9
-8.5
9.3
0.
-0.8
6.1
-3.9
16.1
14.9
44.4
33.5
-8.3
9.9
15.8
4.9
8.3
-2.0
-14.7
-7.6
6.8
3.8
-9.6
-18.7
-4.9
17.0
44.3
24.2
64.2
13.9
14.4
5.0
14.0
19.9
6.3
-15.8
0.
7.9
14.8
0.
-4.9
-3.0
5.6
21.5
-7.8
395.2
3.2
11.0
12.2
3.3
2.1
11.3
1.1
-12.7
-6.0
22.4
0.4
-23.6
-4.6
6.2
17.9
8.8
34.1
3.6
7.3
14.1
-0.3
10.8
18.5
-5.1
-5.3
7.8
21.7
31.0
-26.6
4.9
11.5
15.0
14.2
-24.1
0.3
-2.2
19.1
5.5
14.7
-9.7
2.6
10.7
1.3
-11.6
4.0
9.7
-7.4
4.9
0.9
8.6
-6.1
8.2
16.9
9.6
9.2
-12.0
8.4
16.5
3.7
-17.6
12.8
7.8
-9.7
6.7
3.3
10.7
-6.1
19.7
8.1
2.0
3.6
-11.8
18.1
1.2
5.2
-7.2
18.1
-3.4
-2.4
5.3
5.6
4.2
-3.3
24.3
7.0
10.5
-3.2
-0.2
9.2
6.0
-1.6
1.2
2.3
-1.2
0.
4.0
7.2
-3.8
12.5
12.8
6.9
6.1
-8.4
9.6
8.6
2.1
-8.8
9.3
3.2
-4.9
5.2
4.3
4.2
11.0
13.1
1.8
4.9
12.7
-0.7
-12.0
-4.2
20.9
4.6
-23.1
-4.2
5.3
14.9
12.1
26.8
2.3
7.6
13.9
0.7
8.7
15.3
-4.6
-2.9
6.5
21.4
25.4
-23.0
3.8
9.4
15.0
10.6
-27.9
7.8
4.4
9.0
-1.1
2.3
8.1
-1.8
5.0
5.2
25.2
6.8
-4.8
2.4
11.6
13.3
19.3
-12.6
2.9
8.8
7.6
3.3
8.6
4.3
-14.2
-5.9
10.3
8.3
-4.1
-7.4
-1.6
14.5
26.2
19.4
4.3
7.9
10.9
1.2
6.1
10.1
-5.3
-3.9
4.4
19.0
8.2
-14.6
0.1
10.2
17.4
15.4
930-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS2
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1948. . .
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955.. .
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1.6
-2.5
17.0
8.4
16.1
-7.4
1.3
5.4
0.
-10.2
3.6
4.4
-4.1
4.5
0.5
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971. ..
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
3.0
11.1
12.2
2.9
6.6
14.4
4.9
-15.0
-7.3
18.3
5.7
-15.9
-5.2
2.7
15.5
16.1
3.9
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
2.5
-3.3
22.1
6.9
13.1
-10.8
4.6
12.4
2.2
-12.2
2.4
11.8
-8.6
6.2
1.0
7.1
-3.2
-0.8
18.2
1.3
15.0
-10.8
2.0
14.2
1.6
-12.3
6.0
13.0
-9.6
3.9
1.1
5.3
-4.8
6.1
17.9
6.8
12.8
-12.0
4.6
18.7
4.4
-15.4
9.1
9.9
-10.1
6.7
1.0
7.0
-6.3
9.7
18.5
10.9
9.4
-12.2
7.9
15.2
4.4
-19.3
13.4
8.1
-10.7
7.3
2.6
13.4
-7.1
8.7
14.2
11.0
5.5
-11.7
12.8
15.6
2.2
-18.1
15.9
5.3
-8.4
6.1
6.4
17.2
-9.4
11.3
11.7
4.0
3.0
-13.0
19.8
3.4
5. 5
-13.5
19.0
0.
-6.3
6.1
6.4
14.2
-8.0
20.5
6.4
-0.6
6.1
-11.4
16.6
2.8
7.8
-5.7
18.0
-5.0
-1.6
4.3
5.3
0.8
-0.8
27.3
6.3
2.6
1.8
-10.9
17.9
-2.7
2 .2
-2.3
17.2
-5.1
0.6
5.4
5.2
4.2
-2.5
30.6
4.2
6.6
0.
-3.2
12.1
7.4
0.5
0.6
9.1
-3.1
-1.6
6.0
8.5
0.
-1.7
20.5
7.0
10.7
-4.0
0.
7.5
3.9
-2 .6
1.8
1.1
1.0
-1.6
4.3
9.0
8.5
-5.7
21.9
9.8
14.1
-5.7
2.6
8.0
6.8
-2.6
1.2
-3.2
-1.6
3.3
1.6
4.1
3.0
11.0
12.1
3.3
2.0
11.3
1.0
-13.0
-6.2
22.4
0.
-24.2
-4.6
6.1
17.8
8.5
30.1
6.7
10.9
14.9
-0.8
6.1
12.4
-7.9
-7.9
0.8
21.9
8.1
-29.1
-2.7
7.2
11.5
11.7
46.3
3.0
10.8
13.8
0.4
9.0
12.7
-8.5
-5.4
6.7
19.9
25.1
-24.0
0.7
7.1
12.6
10.5
6.1
3.5
7.2
14.1
-0.4
10.6
18.3
-5.7
-5.5
7.8
21.6
29.9
-27.0
4.8
11.3
14.7
13.8
-38.1
0.5
4.7
13.9
2.0
6.4
14.8
0.3
2.3
5.0
22.7
21.3
-18.1
5.9
9.8
17.6
7.6
-51.7
5.6
5.2
13.3
0.
2.7
12.3
1.7
5.4
3.4
29.2
9.5
-13.4
2.7
11.5
13.5
10.0
-39.7
8.1
2.8
8.6
-0.4
1.9
5.7
-2.1
9.0
4.6
28.6
8.2
-1.0
3.4
9.3
13.0
18.2
-9.8
9.7
5.1
5.1
-2.8
2.3
6.4
-5.1
0.7
7.7
17.8
2.6
0.
1.0
14.1
13.5
29.8
11.7
2.0
5.1
6.3
0.4
3.1
4.6
-10.9
-5.4
8.9
8.4
-1.9
-5.8
0.7
15.4
24.7
34.2
38.1
1.9
11.4
7.6
4.1
8.7
4.6
-13.8
-5.4
8.0
6.0
-3.6
-6.4
-3.9
12.8
26.3
18.2
121.4
4.9
9.9
8.9
5.3
14.1
3.8
-17.9
-6.9
13.9
10.6
-6.8
-10.0
-1.6
15.3
27.6
5.8
series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user.
This series contains revisions beginning with 1979.
(JANUARY 1981)
105
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
(D«C.) (Nov.)
P
T
Year
and
quarter
Implicit price
deflator, gross
nonfarm business
product1
(Index: 1967=100)
Unit labor cost,
all persons, nonfarm
business sector 1
III
111111
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
PSS 1 1 1 1 ii 1 1 1
MMMTllTTllil Ratio scale
240
Components of BCD series
220
(Index: 1967=100)
200
1978
180.2
184.7
187.8
191.4
I Q....
II Q . . .
Ill Q . .
IV Q . . .
190.2
192.8
195.6
199.3
Implicit price deflator,
business product, Q
(index: 1967 = 100)
180
160
140
240
1979
I Q....
II Q . . .
Ill Q . .
IV Q . . .
206.0
212.1
217.3
221.8
195.1
200.3
204.7
208.4
1980
I Q....
II Q . . .
Ill Q..
IV Q . . .
213.7
220.4
225.8
(MA)
Manufacturing
(Ratio)
200
labor cost, all persons, nonfarm
business sector, Q
(index 1967 = 100)
180
160
228.2
236.3
240.5
(NA)
Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars 2
Year
and
month
220
Merchant
wholesalers
(Ratio)
140
120
-J
100
Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)—
Arithmetic
scale
Retail trade
(Ratio)
2.1
1979
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
1.76
1.78
1.72
1.86
1.78
1.84
1.33
1.35
1.30
1.33
1.30
1.31
1.39
1.38
1.38
1.41
1.42
1.45
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1.84
1.86
1.87
1.87
1.91
1.90
1.31
1.31
1.31
1.30
1.29
1.30
1.46
1.42
1.37
1.41
1.40
1.37
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.4
1.3
1980
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
rl.86
1.88
1.92
2.06
r2.08
r2.08
rl.28
rl.26
rl.36
rl.30
1.38
.37
1.34
rl.36
rl.39
rl.44
rl.45
rl.43
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
r2.06
r2.05
rl.96
rl.93
pi. 92
(NA)
1.29
1.42
1.27
rl.29
pi. 38
(NA)
rl.40
rl.39
rl.40
rl.41
pi. 37
(NA)
1.2
1.1
1.5
1.4
1.3
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
"Source: U . S . Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2
Source: U . S . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
106
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
. . .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing 1
(per TOO employees)
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
32. Vendor performance, companies receiving
slower deliveries (percent)
.
. . .
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
29. New building permits, private housing
units (index: 1967=100)
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1972 dol., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. do! . ) .
92. Change in sensitive crude materials
prices, smoothed2 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed2
(percent)
. .
. . .
. . .
106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars
(billion dollars) . .
.
. .
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators 3
(index: 1967=100) .
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagri cultural payrolls
(thousands)
51. Personal income less transfers in 1972
dollars (annual rate, billion dollars). . . .
47. Industrial production, total
(index: 1967=100) . .
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972
dollars (million dollars)
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
indicators 3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total,
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) .
. .
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1967=100)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
(million dollars)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income (percent)
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)
Sept.
1980
Net contribution to index
Oct.
to
Nov.
1980
p40.2
0.08
0.17
0.30
1.2
pi. 2
0.10
0.20
0.0
r34.07
P33.65
0.28
-0.16
-0.08
0.04
Nov.
1980
Dec.
1980
39.6
r39.7
r39.9
1.5
1.4
33.26
35.10
Nov.
to
Dec.
1980
Sept.
to
Oct.
1980
Oct.
1980
39
44
45
47
0.18
120.6
rl!8.8
el!8.8
NA
-0.22
0.0
12.89
12.36
r!4.45
P14.05
-0.10
0.36
-0.08
126.3
107.7
109.5
-0.47
0.05
-0.33
r-6.69
r-6.40
p-0.40
rl.73
r2.45
r2.71
126.51
130.22
135.65
rO.89
rO.95
r819.9
99.8
0.08
NA
NA
0.02
0.38
0.30
0.11
-0.18
133.48
0.18
0.25
-0.12
eO.96
eO.93
0.19
0.03
-0.12
r817.8
r816.9
P810.3
-0.10
-0.04
-0.37
r!34.9
r!35.7
r!37.7
P136.6
0.59
1.47
-0.80
90,384
r90,710
r90,917
p91,122
0.28
0.18
0.23
1,036.9
rl,045.4
rl,052.6
pi, 0 5 6 . 0
0.40
0.34
0.21
r!44.1
r!46.8
r!49.2
p!50.7
0.51
0.45
0.36
155,849
r!56,105
p!54,255
NA
0.04
-0.26
NA
r!38.8
r!40.3
r!41.0
p!41.9
1.08
0.50
0.64
r!3.0
13.3
13.6
NA
2.35
13.5
-0.14
-0.14
0.07
r256.12
r256.05
P255.60
NA
-0.01
-0.08
NA
r200.7
r200.1
r200.8
p201.7
-0.09
0.11
0.21
12.23
13.79
16.06
20.35
3.03
4.41
0.33
0.39
165,306
r!67,790
170,782
p!74,267
r!3.75
r!3.60
P13.49
NA
r!64.2
r!68.2
r!75.3
P200.3
-0.52
2.44
-0.38
4.22
12.51
0.67
NA
14.26
NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It
is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the March 1979 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 106107) for weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment
factor for the leading index is 0.099; for the coincident index, -0.164; for the lagging index, -0.170.
2
This
3
107
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
riMi
QRTRS .
FROM
REF.
PEAK
30. Change in business inventories,
1972 dollars
CURRENT QRTR.
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
-1
SERIES 30
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
-0.7
IV/79
0
-0.9
1
2
3
1.3 11/80
-5.0 HI/80
-0.2
IV/80
ul
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
PEAK
Actual
data
(percent)
36. Net change in inventories on x
hand and on order, smoothed
full
EB
+ 30
1/80
+ 20
CURRENT MONTH
AND
ACTUAL
DATA YEAR
0
SERIES 36 l
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
-9.77 1/80
1
2
3
4
-11.95
-10.25
-6.19
-6.84
2/80
3/80
4/80
5/80
5
6
7
8
-13.22
-17.71
-14.15
-6.69
6/80
7/80
8/80
9/80
9
10
-6.40
-0.40
+ 10
-10
-20
10/80
11/80
-30
-40
104. Change in total liquid assets,
smoothed 1
QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
PEAK
1/80
DATA YEAR
-1
1501.9
-2.6
-2.0
-0.8
• 1550
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
PEAK
• 1450
0
+6
+12 +18 + 24 +30 +36
1 4 6 3 . 3 11/80
1471.9 HI/80
1490.1 IV/80
+ 0.8
+ 0.6
CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
0.51
1/80
0.67
0.80
0.76
0.68
2/80
3/80
4/80
5/80
+ 0.2
0.62
6/80
7/80
8/80
9/80
0.0
0.95
0.96
0.93
10/80
11/80
12/80
-5
9
10
11
+ 0.4
Months from reference peaks
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the December 1980 issue.
^his series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
108
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
+ 1.0
1/80
SERIES 104l
PERCENT
0
-J
+ 1.2
SERIES 50
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
-0.8 1490.6 IV/79
11iiiIniii n in Illinium Nil ii 11 n n In in
-6
0
6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36
Months from reference peaks
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
11111111II1111II1111111111111111111111111111111
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
I
Devi-
Actual
ations
data
from
for
reference
current
peaks
cycle
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
DATA YEAR
PEAK
1/80
910. Composite index of 12 leading
indicators
ations
from
reference
peaks
SERIES 72
MIL. DOL
Percent
Percent
+25
• 195,000
+20
+15
• 180,000
+ 10
+5
• 165,000
0
O.P
159215
1/80
1
1.9 162201
1.8 162074
1.9 162280
2
3
4
-0.1 159033
2/80
3/80
4/80
5/80
5
6
7
8
-0.0 159211
0.7 160299
2.3 162818
3.8 165306
6/80
7/80
8/80
9/80
167790
170782
174267
174862
10/80
11/80
12/80
1/81
9
10
11
12
5.4
7.3
9.5
9.8
+ 15
+10
+5
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
PEAK
1/80
SERIES 910
1967=100
""5
•150,000
-10
-15
•135,000
0
0. P
134.7
1/80
1
2
3
4
-0.4
-2.4
-6.6
-8.8
134.2
131.4
125.8
122.8
2/80
3/80
4/80
5/80
5
6
7
8
-8.1
-4.9
-3.0
0.1
123.8
128.1
130.6
134.9
6/80
7/80
8/80
9/80
9
10
11
0.7
2.2
1.4
135.7
137.7
136.6
10/80
11/80
12/80
-15
CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
-20
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
PEAK
77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales,
mfg. and trade
SERIES 77
RATIO
1973
1.75
1.70
1.65
9
10
1.59
1/80
1.60
1.66
1.71
1.75
2/80
3/80
4/80
5/80
1.74
1.69
1.73
1.64
6/80
7/80
8/80
9/80
in ii in i ii Minium Illinium limilmi
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36
Percent
+10
+5
SERIES 920
1967=100
1
2
-0.5
-1.8
3
4
1/80
-3.7
-5.6
145.4
143.4
140.7
137.9
2/80
3/80
4/80
5/80
5
6
7
8
-6.5
-6.4
-6.5
-5.0
136.6
136.7
136.6
138.8
6/80
7/80
8/80
9/80
9
10
11
-4.0
-3.5
-2.9
140.3 10/80
141.0 11/80
-10
-15
141.9 12/80
Months from reference peaks
NOTE:
920. Composite index of 4 coincident
indicators
1.64 10/80
1.66 11/80
0. P 146.1
1.50
-10
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
PEAK
DATA YEAR
1/80
1.60
1.55
-5
Minium HIMliiinliinilinnlimilmii
-6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36
Months from reference peaks
For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the December 1980 issue.
109
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
escriptions
(issue date) issue date)
A
Accession rate, manufacturing
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Consumer sentiment index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories manufacturing and trade Dl
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Prices selling manufacturing Dl
Prices, selling retail trade, Dl
Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales net manufacturing and trade Dl
Automobiles
Expenditures personal consumption
Imports of automobiles and parts
2
604
16
56
61
92
8/80
8/80
8/68
61
970
58
974
975
971
976
978
977
972
973
24
38
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
67
76
65
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
10/80
10/80
8/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
11/68
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
55
616
22
56
65
92
9/79
8/80
10/69*
B
Balance of payments-See International transactions.
Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates-See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve
Bonds-See Interest rates.
Borrowing-See Credit.
Budget-See Government.
Building-See Construction.
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, D 1
Business incorporations
Business inventories-See Inventories.
Business loans-See Bank loans.
Business saving
72
112
15,35
32
73
72
93
94
33
33
72
72
12/80
1?/80
9/80
9/80
29
76
61
970
14
12
13
13,25
24
24
38
33
12,23
23
67
67
67
76
72
65
65
8/80
1/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
3/80
3/80
295
46
82
11/79
11/72
11/72
11/72
4/69
li/68
11/68*
c
Canada-See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing (BEA)
Manufacturing (FRB)
Materials
.
. .
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital investment-See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow corporate constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force-See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Total
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded . .
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change .
Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector percent changes
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of national
income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes .
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, manufacturing, and
construction
83
82
84
20
20
20
64
64
64
9/79
9/79
9/79
97
11
965
24
24
37
66
66
75
10/80
10/80
10/80
914
35
34
11
29
29
60
70
70
9/80
9/79
9/79
1/72'
1/72
442
90
441
37
51
18
51
18,51
89
62
89
62,89
3/80
2/80
3/80
2/80
4/72*
920
920c
951
940
9
72
112
10
39
36
11
23
15,35
32
60
1/81
1/81
12/80
9/80
12/80
12/80
12/80
11/75*
74
60
66
73
72
345
49
87
11/80
10/72*
4/72*
4/72*
il/72
11/72
345c
280
50
45
87
82
11/80
11/79
10/72*
10/69
64
30,47
70,83
9/79
10/69*
346
49
88
11/80
10/72*
346c
50
88
11/80
10/72*
340
49
87
10/80
6/72*
340c
50
87
10/80
6/72*
341
49
87
10/80
6/72*
341 c
348
349
50
50
50
87
88
88
10/80
11/79
11/79
6/72*
6/72*
6/72*
53
19
63
4/80
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coinciders
Four coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Marginal employment adjustments
Money and financial flows
Profitability
Twelve leaders
Twelve leaders rate of change
Construction
Building permits new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial bldgs. . .
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales ....
Gross private domestic fixed investment
Nonresidential, as percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Residential as percent of GNP
. . .
Residential, total, constant dollars
Housing starts
,
Consumer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items, index
Food, index
Food, percent changes
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures-See Personal consumption
expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dol. .
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dol. . .
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits-See Profits.
Costs-See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans delinquency rate
Mortgage debt net change
Crude materials— See Wholesale prices.
Charts
Tables
920
920c
940
10
39
11
60
930
930c
10
39
914
915
913
917
916
910
910c
11
11
11
11
10
39
29
9
69
Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date) issue date)
1/81
1/81
9/80
11/75*
60
1/81
1/81
11/75*
60
60
60
60
60
60
9/80
9/80
9/80
9/80
9/80
1/81
1/81
13,25
23
24
67
66
67
8/80
12/80
3/80
4/69
248
87
86
249
89
28
47
25
25
47
25
25
83
67
67
83
67
67
11/79
9/79
9/79
11/79
9/79
3/80
10/69*
8
75
12,21
22
64
65
7/80
12/79
66
113
95
39
35
32
15,35
33
73
72
73
72
11/80
11/80
8/79 .
10/80
10/72
10/72
320
320c
322
322c
58
49
49,59
49
49
22
84,95
84,95
84
84
65
5/80
5/80
5/80
5/80
8/80
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
11/68*
20
10
116
12,23
23
34
66
66
73
7/80
7/80
11/80
9/68'
7/64
112
110
72
32
32
15,35
72
72
73
12/80
11/79
12/80
11/72
7/64
11/72
66
113
95
39
33
35
32
15,35
33
32
73
72
73
72
71
11/80
11/80
8/79
10/80
4/80
10/72
10/72
525
564
548
517
53
55
53
53
90
91
90
90
5/80
10/79
8/80
5/80
39
32
33
12,21
72
64
10/80
10/80
11/72
12/74
970
965
951
974
963
967
38
37
36
38
36
37
10/80
10/80
12/80
10/80
9/80
5/80
11/68*
966
37
962
975
952
950
964
36
38
36
36
37
971
968
976
978
977
960
972
973
961
38
37
38
38
38
37
38
38
36
76
75
74
76
74
75
79
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
75
76
76
76
75
76
76
74
77
n
60*"
5/75;
9/68*
10/69*
6/72"
11/72
11/72
D
Debt-See Credit.
Defense
Military prime contract awards
National defense purchases
New orders, defense products
Obligations incurred
Deficit-See Government.
Deflators-See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial production components
Initial claims State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components
New orders, manufacturing
Prices 500 common stocks
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices selling retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Profits, manufacturing
Profits net manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Workweek mfg production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components
Disposable personal income-See Income.
NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
110
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
10/69*
il/68*
4/69*
12/80
11/80
10/80
12/80
12/80
9/80
6/69*
11/68*
10/80
12/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/79
10/80
10/80
9/80
11/68*
5/69*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Curren issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
escriptions
[issue date) issue date)
E
Earnings-See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force total
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments, rate of change
Employees in mining, mfg., and construction
Employees manufacturing and trade Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonag payrolls Dl
Employment, ratio to population
Employment, total civilian
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims. State unemployment insurance, Dl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, mfg. production workers
Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployed both sexes 16-19 years old
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment average duration
Unemployment rate 1 5 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment, total civilian
Workweek, mfg. production workers
Workweek mfg production workers components
Workweek, mfg. production workers, Dl
Equipment-See Investment, capital.
Exports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.
2
441
16
51
61
89
8/80
3/80
8/68
4/72*
48
17
61
9/80
8/68*
48c
40
974
41
963
90
442
46
60
5
962
3
913
21
453
452
451
448
42
4
446
445
447
444
91
44
45
43
37
1
39
17
38
14,17
36
18
51
17
17
16
36
12,16
11
16
51
51
51
51
17
16
51
51
51
51
15,18
18
18
18
18,51
12,16
9/80
9/80
10/80
9/80
9/80
2/80
3/80
11/80
2/80
7/80
11/80
8/80
9/80
8/80
3/80
3/80
3/80
3/80
2/80
8/80
3/80
3/80
3/80
3/80
3/80
2/80
8/30
2/80
2/80
8/80
8/68*
961
36
62'"
76
62
74
62
89
61
61
61
74
61
60
61
89
89
89
89
62
61
89
89
89
89
62
62
62
62
62,89
61
77
74
9/80
F
Federal funds rate
119
Federal Government-See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from
94
Final sales in constant dollars
213
Financial flows, and money, Cl
917
Fixed investment-See Investment, capital.
Fixed weighted price index, NIPA
311
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes, NIPA
311c
Food-See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade-See also International transactions.
Balance on goods and services
667
Balance on merchandise trade
622
Exports, merchandise adjusted exc military
618
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
602
Exports of agricultural products
604
Exports of goods and services, constant dot., NIPA ....
256
Exports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
252
Exports of goods and services, exc. military
668
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
606
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
620
Imports, merchandise, total
612
Imports of automobiles and parts
616
Imports of goods and services, constant dot., NIPA
257
Imports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
253
Imports of goods and services, total
669
Imports of petroleum and products
614
Net exports, goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
255
Net exports, goods and services, current dol., NIPA . . . 250
Net exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA
251
France-See International comparisons.
Free reserves
93
34
72
11/80
33
40
11
72
80
60
9/30
10/79
9/80
48
48
84
84
11/79
11/79
57
57
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
44
44
47
93
93
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
82
82
83
7/80
7/80
7/80
8/80
8/80
11/79
11/79
7/80
8/80
7/80
8/80
8/80
11/79
11/79
7/80
8/80
11/79
11/79
11/79
33
72
9/80
G
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget, NIPA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
20
63
9/79
502
501
500
512
511
510
298
. 52
52
52
52
52
52
46
90
90
90
90
90
90
83
9/79
9/79
9/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
11/79
263
262
265
564
267
266
268
261
260
43
43
47
55
43
43
47
43
43
81
81
83
91
81
81
83
81
81
11/79
11/79
11/79
10/79
11/79
11/79
11/79
11/79
11/79
49
11/68*
8/68
4/72*
12/74
6/69'
6/69*
8/68*
12/74
4/72"
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
Charts
Gross business product
Fixed weighted price index
Fixed weighted price index percent changes
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP constant dollars
GNP constant dollars differences
GNP. constant dollars, percent changes
GNP current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
48
48
30
84
84
70
11/79
11/79
9/79
19,40
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
7/80
9/79
11/79
11/79
10/79
10/69*
10/69*
10/69*
10/69
10/69
10/69
31 '"
20
48
48
40
63,80
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
84
80
46
60
17
17
61
61
11/80
2/80
12/74
21
1
16
12,16
8/80
8/80
12/74
8/68
311
311c
68
GNP ratio to money supply
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Implicit price deflator percent changes
.
. .
Per capita GNP constant dollars
Gross private domestic invest.-See Investment, capital.
Tables
Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date] issue date)
50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
310c
217
39*
40
7/68 '
10/69*
10/69*
10/69
H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising ratio to unemployment
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
Average workweek
...
Average workweek, components
Average workweek D l
.
.
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local bldg permits
Residential GPDI constant dollars
Residential GPDI percent of GNP
.
961
36
61
61
77
74
28
29
89
249
25
13,25
25
47
67
67
67
83
3/80
8/80
9/79
11/79
6/72
4/69
310
310c
48
48
84
84
11/79
11/79
10/69*
10/69*
345
49
87
11/80
10/72*
345c
280
64
50
45
30,47
87
82
70,83
n/8o
11/79
10/72*
10/69
10/69*
346
49
88
11/80
10/72*
n/80
10/72*
8/79
11/79
11/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/69
10/69*
10/69
10/69
10/69
9/80
io/69*
I
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72*
8/68
Implicit price deflator GNP
Implicit price deflator GNP percent changes
Imports— See Foreign trade and International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Compensation of employees
. ...
...
Compensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
11/73
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income ..
Corporate profits with 1 VA and CCA
Corp. profits with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income .
Disposable personal Income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol. . .
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
...
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
5/69*
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
5/69*
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
5/69'
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes
5/69*
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Income on U S investments abroad
5/69*
Interest net
5/69*
Interest net percent of national income
National income
Personal income constant dollars
5/69'
Personal income current dollars
5/69*
Personal income, less transfers, constant dollars
Personal income, less transfers, constant dols. rate of chg.
Personal income ratio to money supply
5/69"
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
10/69*
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, percent
of national income . .
11/72
Rental income of persons with CCA
Rental income of persons with CCA, pet. of nat'l. income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction ....
Incorporations new businesses
7/68*
7/68*
Industrial materials prices components
7/68*
Industrial production - See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
10/69
11/73
10/69
10/69*
10/69*
11/73
10/69
10/69*
10/69
Durable manufactures .
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total components
Total Dl
Total rate of change
. . .
Installment debt -See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance, Dl . . .
Avq. weekly insured unemployment rate
9/79
346c
95
286
287
225
224
227
50
15,35
45
47
40
40
40
88
73
82
83
80
80
80
340
49
87
10/80
6/72*
340c
50
87
10/80
6/72*
341
49
87
10/80
6/72*
341c
652
651
288
289
220
52
223
51
5k
108
282
50
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
14,19
39
31
45
87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
63
10/80
7/80
7/80
11/79
11/79
10/79
2/80
1/80
10/80
10/80
6/80
11/79
6/72*
5/69*
5/69*
10/69
10/69*
10/69
283
284
285
348
349
53
13
23
47
45
47
50
50
19
23
28
11/79
c
10/69*
10/69
10/69*
6/72*
6/72*
967
37
83
82
83
88
88
63
65
69
79
75
76
75
73
74
47
24
22
20
20
14,20,58
966
47c
37
39
5
962
45
16
36
18
71
82
67
65
63
63
63,94
78
75
61
74
62
n/7 »
11/79
11/79
11/79
4/80
3/80
5/80
7/68*
10/69
4/69'
5/80"
4/69*
1/80
12/79
12/79
12/79
9/80
11/68
12/80
9/80
7/80
11/80
8/80
6/69
6/69*
6/69
NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.
111
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by barrks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials-See Wholesale prices.
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada index
Canada, percent changes
France index
France, percent changes
Italy index
Italy percent changes
Japan, index
Japan percent changes
United Kingdom, index
United Kingdom, percent changes
United States, index
United States, percent changes
West Germany, index
West Germany, percent changes
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
International transactions-See also Foreign trade.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, exc. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Imports merchandise total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Income on foreign investments in U S
Income on U S investments abroad
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories on hand and on order net change
Inventories to sales ratio, mfg. and trade (deflated) ....
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change
Manufacturing and trade Dl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.,
change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations manufacturing new, 01
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business and machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Inventories, business, change in-See Inventories.
Nonresidential, total constant dollars
Nonresidential total percent of GNP
Producers' durable equip., nonresid., constant dol.
Residential total constant dollars
Residential total percent of GNP
Structures nonresidential constant dollars
Total constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, capital goods, nondefense, constant
dollars
New orders, capital goods, nondefense, current
dollars
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
288
289
45
47
82
83
11/79
11/79
10/69
10/69*
67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
8/79
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
12/74
7/64
17/73
7/64
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment
Business expenditures new
Business expenditures new 01
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investments in U S .
Income on U S investments abroad
Italy-See International comparisons.
..
Charts
...
Tables
Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
61
970
20
10
24
38
12,23
23
67
76
66
66
10/80
10/80
7/80
7/80
9/68'
652
651
57
57
93
93
7/80
7/80
5/69*
5/69*
68
62
63
26
30
15,30
30
29
70
70
70
70
9/79
12/79
7/80
7/80
7/68
71/68
10/72
930
930c
952
3
10
39
36
12,16
60
1/81
1/87
12/80
8/80
11/75*
910
910c
950
14
104
10
39
36
33
13,31
60
74'"
72
71
7/81
1/81
12/80
10/80
6/80
913
78
n
27
60
68
9/80
8/80
38
26
68
8/80
8
84
12,21
20
64
64
7/80
9/79
917
11
60
9/80
104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117
73,31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
7/80
6/80
4/80
11/80
11/80
23
23
12,21
12,23
23
53
21
21
8/80
8/80
7/80
7/80
7/80
8/80
7/80
7/80
37
38
66
66
64
66
66
90
64
64
77
75
76
9/80
10/80
11/68*
25
25
25
47
67
67
67
83
9/79
9/79
9/79
17/79
10/69*
517
721
53
58
90
94
5/30
12/80
49
62
358
370
370c
83
82
84
21
20
15,30
50
50
50
20
20
20
16
63
70
88
88
88
64
64
64
61
9/79
12/79
11/68
11/68*
J
Japan-See International comparisons.
59'"
96
96
95
95
96
96
95
95
95
95
84,95
84,95
95
95
723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725
58
58
58
58
58
58
14,20,58
58
94
94
94
94
94
94
63,94
94
12/80
12/80
12/80
12/80
12/80
12/80
9/80
12/80
743
746
747
748
742
19
745
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
6/79
6/79
6/79
6/79
6/79
6/79
6/79
667
622
618
602
604
668
606
620
612
616
669
614
652
651
57
57
57
56
56
57
56
57
56
56
57
56
57
57
93
93
93
92
92
93
92
93
92
92
93
92
93
93
7/80
7/80
7/80
8/80
8/80
7/80
8/80
7/80
8/80
8/80
7/80
8/80
7/80
7/80
30
245
247
65
36
77
915
70
71
31
975
78
26,42
42
47
27
13,26
27
11
15,27
27
26
38
27
68,81
81
83
68
68
68
60
68
68
68
76
68
9/79
11/79
11/79
8/80
8/80
1/80
9/80
12/79
12/79
9/80
10/80
8/80
38
26
68
8/80
97
11
965
914
9
24
24
37
23
66
66
75
60
66
10/80
10/80
10/80
9/80
12/80
69
24
67
8/80
243
242
42
42
81
81
11/79
10/79
86
248
88
89
249
87
241
240
25
47
25
25
47
25
42
42
67
83
67
67
83
67
81
81
9/79
11/79
9/79
9/79
11/79
9/79
10/79
10/79
27
23
66
8/80
24
23
66
8/80
733
733c
736
736c
737
737c
738
738c
732
732c
320
320c
735
735c
59*"
59*"
59'"
59""
59
49
49,59
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
5/80
5/80
11/80
11/80
9/72*
L
9/72*
10/72*
10/72*
10/72*
10/72*
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector ....
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force-See Employment and unemployment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index rate of change
Diffusion index
Layoff rate manufacturing
.
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index rate of change
.
...
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans-See Credit.
9/72*
9/72*
9/72*
5/69*
5/69*
9/72*
10/72*
11/68
10/72*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
74"'
61
8/68*
5/75*
M
Man-hours-See Employment and unemployment.
Marginal employment adjustments Cl
Materials and supplies on han'd and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.
change
Materials, crude and intermediate-See Wholesale prices.
Materials, industrial-See Price indexes.
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials, rate of capacity utilization
Merchandise trade-See Foreign trade.
Military -See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply Ml
Money supply Ml, percent changes
Money supply M2
.... .
Money supply M2 percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply M1
Ratio personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt net change
Mortage yields secondary market
Municipal bond yields
10/72
10/72
7/64'
7/64
N
n
National defense-See Defense.
10/69
10/69* National Government-See Government.
National income-See Income.
9/68
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dol
27
24
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dol
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
8
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., constant dol. . . 20
2/69*
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., current dol. . . . 10
2/69
548
Defense products
11/68*
7
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
6
Durable goods industries current dollars
Components
964
Diffusion index
New orders manufacturing Dl
..
971
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
88
Structures, constant dollars
87
Total constant dollars
86
248
Total percent of GNP
9/68*
O
Obligations incurred Defense Depart' .ciit
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.
10/69* Output-See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
.
l'6/69*
Per hour nonfarm business sector
Per hour private business sector
10/69
Per hour, private business sector, percent changes
Ratio to capacity manufacturing (BEA)
Ratio to capacity manufacturing (FRB)
Ratio to capacity, materials
9/68
Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing ....
NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
112
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
9/79"
9/79
9/79
8/80
9/68
9/68
9/68'
li/68
6/68*
10/72*
10/72*
12/74
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
escriptions
(issue date) issue date)
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDI . . . .
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures-See Housing,
-tetail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 1 6-1 9 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
'
Total constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of G NP
Personal income-See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and products, imports
Plant and equipment-See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Business expenditues for, Dl
Contracts and orders for, constant dollars
Contracts and orders for current dollars
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items index
All items, percent changes
Food, index
Food percent changes
Deflators, NIPA
Fixed weighted, gross business product, index
Fixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changes
Implicit price deflator, GNP, index
Implicit price deflator GNP percent changes
Industrial materials
Industrial materials components
Industrial materials, Dl
Labor cost price per unit of
Sensitive prices, change in
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities percent change
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
Crude materials, index
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Price to unit labor cost nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade Dl
Prime contracts, military
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresid., GPDI
Production-See Industrial production and GNP.
Productivity
Output per hour, nonfarm business* sector
Output per hour, private business sector
Output per hour, private business sector, pet. changes .
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, after taxes, with I VA and CCA,
constant dollar
Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA, cur. dol. . . .
Corporate with IVA and CCA
Corporate, with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income . . .
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCA to corporate domestic
income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. inc. .
453
452
451
51
51
51
89
89
89
3/80
3/80
3/80
55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235
22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47
65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83
9/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/69*
292
293
614
46
46
56
82
83
92
11/79
11/79
8/80
10/69
7/68*
61
970
20
10
90
24
38
12,23
23
18
67
76
66
66
62
10/80
10/80
7/80
7/80
2/80
11/68
11/68*
320
320c
322
322c
49
49,59
49
49
84,95
84,95
84
84
5/80
5/80
5/80
5/80
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
311
311c
310
310c
23
48
48
48
48
28
11/79
11/79
11/79
11/79
5/80
10/69*
10/69*
4/69
967
26
92
37
29
13,28
84
84
84
84
69
79
75
70
69
5/8o'
7/80
4/80
4/69*
19
968
13,28
37
69
75
9/79
12/80
5/69
5/69*
330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
26
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
29
85
85
86
86
85
85
86
86
86
86
70
6/80
6/80
5/80
5/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
7/80
6/69*
976
978
977
525
109
38
38
38
53
35
76
76
76
90
73
10/80
10/80
10/80
5/80
11/80
88
25
67
9/79
358
370
370c
916
50
50
50
11
88
88
88
60
9/8o"
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance, Dl . . .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Number unemployed, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females, 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males, 20 years and over
Total unemployed
11/68*
Quit rate, manufacturing
11/68*
Unemployment rates
11/68*
1 5 weeks and over
Insured, average weekly
li/73
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change in
United
Kingdom-See International comparisons.
6/68*
10/72*
10/72*
V
18
16
28
28
69
69
9/79
9/79
1/72
7/68
80
79
286
287
972
960
15
916
22
28
28
45
47
38
37
29
11
29
69
69
82
83
76
75
70
60
69
9/79
9/79
11/79
11/79
10/80
10/79
7/80
9/80
9/79
81
282
283
29
45
47
70
82
83
9/79
11/79
11/79
4
16
61
8/80
284
45
82
11/79
Q
Quit rate, manufacturing
R
Rental income of persons, with CCA
Rental income of persons, with CCA, percent of national
income
...
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
285
47
83
11/79
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69*
9/68'
Salaries-See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit ,
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices-See Prices, selling.
Sensitive prices, change in
State and local government-See Government.
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks Dl
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order . . .
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
change
Surplus-See Government.
Tables
11/72
93
89
249
33
25
47
72
67
83
9/80
9/79
11/79
59
54
22
22
65
65
6/80
6/80
213
40
80
10/79
69
57
56
973
77
59
54
24
14,22
22
38
27
22
22
67
65
65
76
68
65
65
8/80
1/80
1/80
10/80
1/80
6/80
6/80
295
298
290
292
293
46
46
46
46
46
82
83
82
82
83
11/79
11/79
11/79
11/79
11/79
92
13,28
69
4/80
19
968
78
13,28
37
27
69
75
68
9/79
12/80
8/80
38
26
68
8/80
114
115
34
34
72
73
11/80
11/80
7/64
7/64
91
60
5
962
3
15,18
17
16
36
12,16
62
61
61
74
61
3/80
2/80
7/80
11/80
8/80
6/69*
6/69*
8/68*
446
445
447
444
37
4
51
51
51
51
18,51
16
89
89
89
89
62,89
61
3/80
3/80
3/80
3/80
2/80
8/80
44
45
43
18
18
18
62
62
62
2/80
8/80
2/80
4/72
6/69
4/72
96
25
21
21
64
64
8/80
8/80
9/68
9/68
107
108
32
31
31
12,21
71
71
64
7/80
6/80
10/80
12/74
330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
92
1
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
13,28
12,16
85
85
86
86
85
85
86
86
86
86
69
61
6/80
6/80
5/80
5/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
4/80
8/80
36
77
74
9/80
10/69*
6/72'
9/68*
2/69'
11/68*
6/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68*
5/69
5/69*
T
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
10/69
10/69*
11/68*
Charts
Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date) issue date)
S
10/69
10/69
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
u
Velocity of money
GNP to money supply Ml, ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance
4/72*
W
Wages and salaries-See Compensation.
West Germany-See International comparisons.
3/69"
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
7/68'
All commodities, percent changes
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
10/69
Crude
materials indpx
10/69*
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
Sensitive nrices change in
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing,
10/69
components
10/69* Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl . . . .
961
6/69*
8/68"
NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index, Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.
113
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect relationships or order among the
series. "M" following a series title indicates monthly data;
"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are
referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; Source 3-U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System.
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(23,66)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current
dollars (M).—Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National
Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,71)
34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(29,70)
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972
dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(13,26,68)
Following the source for each series is an indication of the
pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding
Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each
series.
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
(23,65)
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)
I-A. Composite Indexes
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).-American Bankers
Association
(33,72)
910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes
series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 106)
913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments
(includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all
manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(29,70)
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)
16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and
purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 92) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26,
80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)
(M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)
38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and
on order, manufacturing (M).-Source 2
(26,68)
40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries—mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Source 3
(14,17,62)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(17,62)
43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources 2 and 3(18,62)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks W.Stan da rd & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and
over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,62)
917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes
series 104, 106, 110) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-U.S. Department of Labor, Employment
and Training Administration
(18,62)
920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers,
manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(16,61)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—
The Conference Board
(17,61)
930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
income (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
1-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (16,61)
23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials
(M).-Source 3
(28,69,79)
24. Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
47. index of industrial production, total (M).—Source
4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
48. Employee-hours in
(M).-Source 3
nonagricultural
establishments
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
business sector (Q).-Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)
52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M).—Source
27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources
1, 2, and 3
(23,66)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and
3
(19,63)
28. New private housing units started, total (M).-Source
2
(25,67)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).—
Source 1
(22,65)
7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and
3
(21,64)
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(26,42,68,81)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).—
Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)
8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and
3
(12,21,64)
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (12,16,61)
4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
5. Average weekly initial claims for
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S.
Labor, Employment and Training
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
Analysis
(16,61)
unemployment
Department of
Administration;
of Economic
(16,61)
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in current dollars (M).—Source 2(21,64,77)
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
114
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1
2
(19,63)
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M).—
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
2, and 3
(22,65)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)
(M).—Sources 1, 2, 3, and The Conference
Board
(17,61)
84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).—Source
4
(20,64)
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)
86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of
industrial production, manufacturing (M).—Sources 1
and 4
(15,30,70)
87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)
63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).Source 3
(30,70)
89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of
working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(18,62)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Source
2
(27,68)
91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(15,18,62)
66. Consumer installment credit (EOM).-Source 4; FRB
seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally
adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current
figure
(35,73)
88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)
92. Change in sensitive crude materials prices (PPI of crude
materials less agricultural products) (smoothed) (M).Sources 1 and 3
(13,28,69)
93. Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Source 4
(33,72)
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic
product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio
of current-dollar compensation of employees to real
gross corporate product (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
(EOM).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars
(EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(15,27,68)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,
in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).—Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(15,35,73)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures
(M).-Source 4
(20,63)
74. Index of industrial production,
manufactures (M).—Source 4
nondurable
(20,63)
75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).—
Source 4
(22,65)
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(24,67)
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales
(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).—
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(27,68)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (EOQ).-The Conference Board (24,66)
102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).—Sources
1 and 4
(13,31,71)
(Q).-Source 1
(28,69)
82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).-Source
4
(20,64)
83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).Source 1
(20,64)
952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
700 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(35,75)
961. Diffusion index of average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing—20 industries (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(36,74,77)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).—Source 1
and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(36,74)
963. Diffusion index of number of employees on private
nonagriculturai payrolls—172 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)
964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries—35 industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital
appropriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries
(Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries
(M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials—
13 industrial materials (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(37,75,79)
970. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, total—18 industries (Q).—Source
1
(38,76)
107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml-B
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
4
(35,73)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S.
Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate
domestic income (Q).-Source 1
(29,70)
(36,74)
106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3,
and 4
(13,31,71)
80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(M).-Source 1
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—
53-82 industries (M).-Standard & Poor's
Corporation
(37,75)
(28,69)
79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars
950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components
105. Money supply Ml-B in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3,
and 4
(31,71)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).—Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,72)
113. Net chance in consumer installment credit (M).-Source
4
(32,72)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Source 4
(34,72)
78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2
(27,68)
(34,72)
1-C. Diffusion Indexes
85. Change in money supply Ml-B (M).-Source 4(31,71)
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).-Source
4
(35,73)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).—Source
2
(24,67)
119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the
Treasury
(34,73)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration
(34,73)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
700 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and tradeabout 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing
and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about
700 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
115
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about
450 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 250
businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
II-A. National Income and Product
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(26, 42, 68, 81)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(40,80)
213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(40,80)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dotlars (Q).—
Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
220. National income in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(45,82)
223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
(40,63)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).Source 1
(40,80)
225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1
248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential,
as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)
295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits plus
capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (Q).-Source
1
(46,82)
249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82)
257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
(46,82)
293. Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of
disposable personal income (Q).-Source 1 (46,83)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Source
1
(46,83)
II-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(48,84)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Source
3
(49,59,84,95)
322. Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Source 3(49,84)
330. Index of producer prices, all commodities (M).—Source
3
(48,85)
331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for further
processing (M).-Source 3
(48,85)
332. Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
333. Index of producer prices, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)
334. index of producer prices, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Index of producer prices, industrial commodities (M).—
Source 3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in
manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,
and seasonality (M).-Source 3
(49,87)
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(43,81)
267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (M).—Source
3
(49,87)
268. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)
280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1
(45,82)
348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes (Q).—Source
3
(50,88)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).—
Source 3
(50,88)
238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).Source 1
(47,83)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent
of gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, ail industries, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(42,81)
116
(45,82)
286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1
(47,82)
287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,87)
358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
II-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)
(45,82)
441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)
444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
47. United States, index of industrial production, total
(M).-Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
570. Employment in defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,91)
320. United States, index of consumer prices, all items
(M).-Source 3
(48,59,84,95)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force
survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
448. Number employed, part-time workers for economic
reasons, labor force survey (M).—Sources 2 and
3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
577. Defense Department personnel, military, active duty
(EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Washington Headquarters Services
(55,91)
578. Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hire
employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19
years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and
military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense,
OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and
Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(54,91)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
II-D. Government Activities
588. Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(M).-Source 2
(54,91)
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
II-E. U.S. International Transactions
501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)
502. Federal Government expenditures; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
604. Exports of agricultural products (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)
511. State and local government receipts; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
512. State and local government expenditures; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—
U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90)
525. Defense Department military prime contract awards for
work performed in the United States (M).-U.S.
Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington
Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial
Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(M).- Source 2
(53,90)
557. Output of defense and space equipment (M).- Source
(56,92)
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants
(Q).-Source 1
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—
Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—
Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)
727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Institute
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612. General imports, total (M).-Source 2
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
(57,93)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source 1 (57,93)
728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
732. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).—
Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95)
733. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
736. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Institute Centrale
di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
651. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q).-Source
1
(57,93)
742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The
Financial Times (London)
(59,96)
652. Income on foreign investments in the United States
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Statistics Canada
(Ottawa)
(59,96)
667. Balance on goods and services (Q).-Source 1(57,93)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).-Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
(54,91)
668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
559. Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(59,96)
561. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
II-F. International Comparisons
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Institute Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(59,96)
4
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Tokyo)
(59,96)
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