Full text of Business Conditions Digest : January 1981
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BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST JANUARY 1981 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Philip M. Klutznick, Secretary Courtenay M. Slater, Chief Economist for the Department of Commerce BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS George Jaszi, Director Allan H. Young, Deputy Director Charles A. Waite, Acting Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections Feliks Tamm, Editor This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes Morton Somer—Seasonal adjustments Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541) The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources at the back of this report. This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee under the auspices of the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards. The Committee consists of the following persons: Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, Bureau of Industrial Economics, U.S. Department ot Commerce Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards Ronald E. Kutscher, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor J. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Charles A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce ABOUT THIS REPORT BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides a monthly look at many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. The original BCD, which began publication in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and prospects. The report's contents were based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its usefulness to analysts using other approaches to business conditions analysis. Principal additions to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's present title was adopted. The dominant feature of the current BCD is the cyclical indicators section, in which each business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its behavior at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of presentation is explained in the introductory text which begins on page 1. Most of the data contained in this report also are published by their source agencies. A series finding guide and a complete list of series titles and sources can be found at the back of the report. Cyclical Indicators are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process and by their average timing at business cycle peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks and troughs combined. These indicators have been selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they also have proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. They include selected components of the national income and product accounts; measures of prices, wages, and productivity; measures of the labor force, employment, and unemployment; economic data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with major foreign countries. Annual subscription price: $55.00 domestic, $68.75 foreign. Single copy price: $4.75 domestic, $5.95 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available upon request. Address all correspondence concerning subscriptions to the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST New Features and Changes for This Issue OF Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Part I. Cyclical Indicators Part II. Other Important Economic Measures How To Read Charts How To Locate a Series Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 1 1 1 1 4 5 5 6 JANUARY 1981 Data Through December Volume 21, Number 1 3 CYCLICAL <:OM'^<!£ AMD "'• K*:'if« CO ! Al i A2 A3 ; A4 Bl | B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 j tfrONENTS Chart Table 10 12 14 15 60 — — — Employment and Unemployment 16 61 Production and Income Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit 19 21 23 26 28 31 63 64 65 68 69 71 36 — 39 74 77 — Composite Indexes Leading Index Components Coincident Index Components Lagging Index Components ;.<",. ;..-';V: or CHAN-";Cl C2 C3 Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components Rates of Change The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has been apr. proved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through September 1, 1983. i Al A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 *' • :''l '*;; . t C ' " GNP and Personal Income ................................... Personal Consumption Expenditures .......................... Gross Private Domestic Investment ............................ Government Purchases of Goods and Services ................... Foreign Trade ............................................. National Income and Its Components .......................... Saving ................................................... Shares of GNP and National Income ........................... Bl B2 Chart 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 Table 80 80 81 81 82 82 82 83 Price Movements Wages and Productivity 48 49 84 87 Cl Civilian Labor Force and Major Components 51 89 Dl D2 Receipts and Expenditures Defense Indicators 52 53 90 90 El E2 Merchandise Trade Goods and Services Movements 56 57 92 93 Fl F2 F3 Industrial Production Consumer Prices Stock Prices 58 59 59 94 95 96 A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability QCD and Related Measures of Variability B. Current Adjustment Factors 97 100 (December 1980 issue) C. Historical Data for Selected Series D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide") E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (October 1980 issue) F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (June 1980 issue) G. Experimental Data and Analyses Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide Titles and Sources of Series 103 106 110 114 Readers are invited to submit comments and suggestions concerning this publication. Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230 NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE A limited number of changes are made from time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic research, newly available time series, and revisions made by source agencies in concept, composition, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may result in revisions of data, additions or deletions of series, Changes in this issue are as follows: changes in placement of 1. The series on employment and unemployment in the civilian labor force (series 37, 42-44, 60, 90, 91, 441, 442, 444-448, and 451-453) have been revised for the period 1975 to date. These revisions reflect the source agency's endof-year updating of seasonal adjustment factors. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Current Employment Analysis, Division of Employment Analysis. 2. The series on Consumer installment credit (series 66, 95, and 113) have been revised by the source agency to reflect recent benchmark information (for all holder groups except finance companies) and updated seasonal adjustment factors. These revisions affect the data for the period beginning 1975. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Mortgage and Consumer Finance Section. (Continued on page iv.) The February issue of Business Conditions Digest is scheduled for release on March 4. ill series in relation to other series, changes in composition of indexes, etc. 3. The series based wholly or in part on U.S. money stock measures (series 85, 102, and 104-108) have been revised by the source agency to reflect new benchmark information (December 1979 and March 1980 call reports), the incorporation of daily deposits data from all nonmember banks with total deposits greater than $15 million as of December 1979, and revised estimates of deposits at credit unions and minor deposit items at all thrift institutions. These revisions affect each of the above-mentioned series for the period 1977 to date. The revised data over this period for series 102, 106, and 108 also incorporate new benchmark information for overnight RP's. In addition to the revisions noted above, series 104 incorporates (beginning with 1969) new benchmark information for term RP's and new estimates of term Eurodollar assets of U.S. nonbank holders. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Banking Section. 4. The series on Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments (series 48) has been revised by the source agency for the period 1972 to date. This revision reflects a new seasonal adjustment of the basic data. In this issue, revised data are shown graphically for the period beginning 1978 and in tabular form for the period beginning 1979. Revised data for the earlier period will be shown in a subsequent issue. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology, Division of Productivity Research. 5. Several months of data for series 45 (Average weekly insured unemployment rate) have been revised for the period 1976 to date. This revision reflects new seasonal adjustment factors computed by the source agency. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Office of Administration Management. 6. Appendix C contains historical data for series 910, 920, and 930. 7. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 30, 36, 50, 72, 77, 104, 910, and 920. IV OF PRESENTATION adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1. The charts in this report generally include centered MCD moving averages for those series with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday Business cycles have been defined as sequences of expansion and contraction in various economic processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment, income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive, business cycles of historical experience have been definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in duration and intensity, reflecting changes in economic systems, conditions, policies, and outside disturbances. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is the cyclical indicators approach. This approach identifies certain economic time series as tending to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad movements in aggregate economic activity. Such indicators have been selected and analyzed by NBER in a series of studies published between 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research staff. The present format and content of part I of BCD are based on the results of that study. Section A. Composite Indexes and Their Components All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, c o n f o r m i t y to business e x p a n s i o n s and contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme was developed and used to assess each series by all of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.) cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general This information, particularly the scores relating practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process have been designated. groups and combine those with similar timing The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as to periodic review by NBER and on occasion are weights. Because they use series of historically changed as a result of revisions in important tested usefulness and given timing characteristics economic time series. The dates shown in this pub- (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), lication for the 1948-1970 time period are those with diversified economic coverage and a minimum determined by a 1974 review. The turning dates for of duplication, composite indexes give more the 1973-1975 period are detailed in NBER's 1976 TjIftBtersigflals" over -time Wian do any fl Annual Report. individual indicators. Furthermore, much 1 'Oss-CIassification of Cyclical Indicator;, A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks f Economic Process Cyclical Timing -\ LEADING (L) INDICATORS (62 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT(C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (18 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (8 series) | \\ Marginal employment adjustments (6 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) i i III. i CONSUMPTION, [TRADE. ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (18 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) New and unfilled orders and deliveries (6 series) Consumption (2 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (5 series) Residential construction (3 series) Comprehensive output and real income (4 series) Industrial production (4 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Backlog of investment commitments (1 series) Business investment expenditures (5 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) 'EMPLOYMENT AND , UNEMPLOYMENT (18 series) j j Duration of unemployment (2 series) Business investment expenditures (1 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) Trade (1 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) 1 11 CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (18 series) Marginal employment adjustments (3 series) Industrial production (1 series) New and unfilled orders and deliveries (5 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (4 series) Residential construction (3 series) Marginal employment adjustments (2 series) Comprehensive employment (4 series) Comprehensive output and real income (4 series) Industrial production (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) Consumption and trade (3 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Unfilled orders (1 series) Business investment commitments (2 series) Business investment expenditures (6 series) ! : V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT > (9 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Inventories on hand and on order (1 series) ! VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (17 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (26 series) Stock prices (1 series) Commodity prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (7 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money flows (3 series) Real money supply (2 series) Credit flows (4 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (2 series) Interest rates (1 series) Velocity of money (2 series) Interest rates (2 series) Inventories on hand and on order (4 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) 1 nterest rates (4 series) Outstanding debt (3 series) Commodity prices (1 series) Profit share (1 series) Interest rates (1 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (17 series) VII. MONEY ANDCREDIT (26 series) Stock prices (1 series) Commodity prices (2 series) Profits and profit margins (6 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money flows (2 series) Real money supply (2 series) Credit flows (4 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Profits (2 series) Money flow (1 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Interest rates (8 series) Outstanding debt (3 series) B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs Economic Process Cyclical Timing LEADING (L) INDICATORS 1 EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (18 series) IA-J cf^r\(3,c\j l*f / series ROUGHLY COINCIDENT(C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (40 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (1 series) Marginal employment adjustments (1 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive and duration of unemployment (5 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Inventories on hand and on order (5 series) Bank reserves (1 series) independent measurement error and other "noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly series that are acceptable in terms of relatively prompt availability and reasonable accuracy. The main composite indexes are distinguished by their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, series which historically reached their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the corresponding business cycle turns. There is an index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting of series which historically reached their turning points at about the same time as the general economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which includes series that typically reached their peaks and troughs later than the corresponding business cycle turns. The leading index contains series with long as well as short leads, but each series leads on the average over time and shows a frequency of leads at the individual turns exceeding that attributable to chance, given the historical distribution of cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948, leads were generally more frequent and longer at peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags were generally more frequent and longer at troughs than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and classifying the indicators takes into account these w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d d i f f e r e n c e s in timing. Consequently, rough coincidences include short leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through +3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and plus denotes lags in months.) For purposes of constructing a composite index, each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are divided by the long-run average (without regard to sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile series are prevented from dominating the index. The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the trends of its four components. This trend, which is similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be viewed as a linear approximation to the secular movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both their trends and their average month-to-month percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index. (For a more detailed description of the method of constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.) In addition to these principal composite indexes, differentiated according to cyclical timing, there are five indexes based on leading indicators which have been grouped by economic process. Taken together, these additional indexes include all 12 component series of the overall leading index, plus a few related series. Also shown in this section is the ratio of the index of roughly coincident indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a series known to have a useful pattern of early cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of the composite indexes show the length, in months, of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference turning dates covered. The next set of data consists of series included in the principal composite indexes. These are the 12 components of the leading index, the 4 components of the coincident index, and the 6 components of the lagging index. Following the title of each series, its typical timing is identified by three letter symbols in a small box. The first of these letters refers to the timing of the given indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a tendency to roughly coincide with the business cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency to lag. Since these series have been selected for the consistency of their timing at both peaks and troughs, all components of the leading index are denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that these classifications are based on limited evidence, namely the performance of the indicators during the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which included five peaks and five troughs. While the timing classifications are expected to agree with the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will not necessarily hold invariably in every instance. The timing of the series in the post-1970 period can be determined by inspection of the charts where the 1973-75 recession is shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference cycle chronology. Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process This section covers 111 individual time series, including the 22 indicators used in the construction of the composite indexes. The peak and trough timing classifications are shown on the charts in the same manner as described above, but this section includes series with different timing at peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at turning points of the given type. Eight series are unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs is included in the list of cyclical indicators. The classification scheme which groups the indicators of this section by economic process and cyclical timing is summarized in the two tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is based on the observed behavior of the series at five business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58, February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation distinguishes seven major economic processes and four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells identify subgroups of the given economic process with the given timing characteristic. The number of series in each such group is given in parentheses following the title. Complete information on how individual indicators are classified by timing at peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected measures and scores, is provided in the 1977 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from numerous components. How the individual components of an aggregate move over a given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index which indicates the percentage of components that are rising (with half of the unchanged components considered rising). Cyclical changes in these diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, they are computed from changes measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter) spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans. Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes are shown for the component series included in each of the three composite indexes and for the components of some of the aggregate series shown in section B. Diffusion measures can be derived not only from actual data but also from surveys of anticipations or intentions. Indexes based on responses of business executives about their plans and expectations for several operating variables are presented, along with the corresponding indexes based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion series. This section also records rates of change for the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and lagging) and lor four indicators of aggregate economic activity: GNP in constant dollars (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours in nonagricultural establishments, and personal income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for 1-quarter spans. Although movements in diffusion indexes and in rates of change for the same aggregates are generally positively correlated, these two measures present information about two related but distinct aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes measure the prevailing direction or scope of change, while rates of change measure the degree as well as the overall direction. As is the case for diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates of change tend to lead those of the corresponding indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead at the business cycle turns as well. Part II. IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment nonprofit institutions and the value of the change This section contains measures of the civilian in the physical volume of inventories held by This part is divided into six sections which cover labor force and its major components: Total a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series private business. The former include all private numbers of employed and unemployed persons. purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for measuring various aspects of economic activity. The number of unemployed is subdivided into Some of these series are very comprehensive, tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used selected categories defined by sex, age, and class pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others goods are also included. Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation have to do with particular sectors or markets, and (A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor still others relate to U.S. international transactions and purchases from business and from abroad. It force. or to selected foreign countries. The represented variables include incomes, outputs, and excludes transfer payments, interest paid by Section D. Government Activities expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surlabor r e s o u r c e s ; g o v e r n m e n t r e c e i p t s , investment by government enterprises but excludes expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels: ports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local land and financial assets. government. Also shown is a selection of series key foreign countries. Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense Indicators. less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which Section A. National Income and Product of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national The national income and product accounts, included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production, final expenditures for the personal, business, international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment. foreign, and government sectors of the economy. National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at Section Al shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by defense order-production-delivery process. Series income. The four major components of the gross residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede pronational p r o d u c t — p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n the factor costs of the goods and services production, such as contract awards and new orders, expenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to net exports of goods and services—are presented in persons, corporate profits, and net interest. coincide with production, such as employment, and sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period. shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving, measures of defense activity." series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions the Survey of Current Business, Part I, government surplus or deficit. January 1976. This group includes monthly series on exports Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The Gross national product (GNP) is the market major e x p e n d i t u r e c o m p o n e n t s of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise, the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income. most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income. Section F. International Comparisons economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in business inventories. Personal income is the income received by This section is designed to facilitate a quick persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity review of basic economic conditions in six of the businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust nations with which we have important trade funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for income, rental income of persons, dividends, these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerpersonal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corless personal contributions for social insurance. the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inDisposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic of personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inpayments to government. uct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1969. The group of series on wages and tyoductivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price ingoods and services purchased by individuals, operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1969) provide the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1969) tend to be significant as leading indicators. rates of change for most of these measures. cluded. 4 HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded area) as designated by NBER. Basic Data Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("9" = September) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or moving averages.) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where a moving average is plotted. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Parallel lines indicates a break in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.). Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-1" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles in that distance, etc. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over 1-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. Diffusion indexes and rates of change are centered within the spans they cover. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over various spans. Rates of Change Solid line indicates percent changes over 3- or 6-month spans. Arabic number indicates latest month used in computing the changes. Broken line indicates percent changes over 1-month spans. Broken line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 1-quarter spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 3 - o r 4-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter used in computing the changes. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES 1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or- 2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of the report where series are listed numerically according to series numbers within each of the report's sections. Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data1 Series title Timing classification3 Pwcem Unit Oct. to Nov. 1980 Average of 1979 2d 0 1980 1980 3d 0 1980 4th Q 1980 Oct Nov Dec 1980 1980 1980 Nov. to Dec. 1980 do*** _» 3dQ to 4th Q 1980 2dQ to 3dQ 1980 E 3 C $ % I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A. Composite Indexes 910 Twelve leading indicators 920 Four coincident indicators 930 Six lagging indicators Leading Indicator Subgroups: 913. Marginal employment adjustments 914. Capital investment commitments 915 Inventory investment and purchasing 916 Profitability 917. Money and financial flows L LL CCC L,L,L L,L,L L LL L LL L,L,L do do 140.1 145.1 166.4 131.4 140.4 177.6 124.1 138.4 182.7 131.2 137.4 163.2 136.7 141.1 181.3 135.7 140.3 168.2 137.7 141.0 175.3 136.6 141.9 200.3 1.5 0.5 4.2 -0.8 0.6 14. 3 5.7 -0.7 -10. 7 4.2 2.7 11. 1 91( 92( 93 do. . . . do. . . . do do do. . . . 96.8 113.5 105.9 91.7 145. 5 93.4 107.1 100.8 NA 135.4 89.4 103.9 98. 5 89.1 129.6 92.9 107. 5 99.5 NA 136.4 95.5 107.4 102.9 NA 138.4 95.0 107.2 102.6 NA 139.0 95.5 108.2 103.3 NA 138.9 96.0 106.9 102.9 NA 137.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 NA -0.1 0.5 -1.2 -0.4 NA -1.2 3.9 3.5 1.0 NA 5.2 2.8 -0.1 3.4 NA 1.5 91, 91' 91 91 91 40.2 3.3 4.0 381 1.1 2.0 39.7 2.8 3.6 484 1.9 1.5 39.4 2.7 3.1 607 3.1 1.4 39.3 2.6 3.6 513 1.7 1.3 39.9 2.9 3.7 411 1.3 1.4 39.7 2.8 3.9 439 1.4 1.3 39.9 2.9 3.6 399 1.2 1.4 40.2 3.1 3.6 394 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 -0.3 9.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.2 0. 1.3 0. 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 15.5 1.4 -0.1 1.5 0.3 0.1 19.9 0.4 0.1 Ratio 1967=100... 0.786 0.520 0.454 0.448 0.502 0.497 0.027 -0.005 •0.006 0.043 129 116 119 0.491 130 0.475 158 127 134 130 5.5 -3.0 2.6 9.2 6( 4( A.r., bil.hrs.. Thousands. . 169.72 93,648 89,886 26,504 169.98 93,960 90,652 25,857 1 6 9 . 7 8 170.18 171.45 93,887 93,999 93,888 9 0 , 710 9 0 , 9 1 7 91, 122 2 5 , 6 3 6 2 5 , 8 0 4 25,916 0.2 0.1 0. 2 0.7 0.7 -0.1 0. 2 0.4 -0.6 0. -0.4 -1.7 1.4 0.2 0.9 1.8 4* 4 4 4 Percent 59.25 58.51 58.49 58.27 58.18 58.21 58.22 58.11 0.01 Thousands . . Percent 5,963 7,448 7,921 7. 5 4.3 12.4 2.0 7,961 7.6 4.1 13.3 2.2 7,946 7,785 7.1 3.9 11.9 1.7 7, 652 7.3 4.2 11.2 1.6 7,897 5.8 2.9 10.8 1.2 7.5 3.8 13.6 2. 2 7.4 3.5 13.5 2.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 -2.3 0. 2.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 -0.1 1 4 8 3 . 0 1481.8 1 4 6 3 . 3 1471.9 1197.4 1 2 0 7 . 8 1194.8 1 2 0 7 . 6 1043.8 1043.4 1036.2 1035.6 1490. 1 1222.5 1225.3 1052.6 1056.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.3 1967=100 B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process B1. Employment and Unemployment Marginal Employment Adjustments: *1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg L,L,L 21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.2 .. L,C,L 2. Accession rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2 . . . . L,L,L 5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted 4 ) L,C,L *3. Layoff rate, per 100 employ., mfg. (inv. 4 ) 2 . . L,L,L 4. Quit rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2 L,Lg,U Job Vacancies: 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed 2 46. Help-wanted advertising Comprehensive Employment: 48. Employee hours in nonagri. establishments . . . 42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities *41 . Employees on nonagri. payrolls 40. Employees in mfg., mining, construction . . . . 90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age2 L Lg U L,Lg,U u,c,c U,C,C CCC L,C,U U,Lg,U Comprehensive Unemployment: 37. Total unemployed (inverted 4 ) L,Lg,U 43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 4 ) 2 L,Lg,U 45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy- rate (inv. 4 ) 2 . . L,Lg,U *91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted 4 ) . . Lg,Lg,Lg 44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over (inv. 4 ) 2 .. Lg.Lg.Lg Hours do. . . . Percent Thousands. . Percent do. . . . do do. . . . do. . . . Weeks Percent 1 6 9 . 2 0 168.17 1 7 0 . 4 7 93,758 93,769 93,925 9 0 , 4 8 9 9 0 , 131 9 0 , 9 1 6 2 5 , 7 6 3 25,317 2 5 , 7 8 5 7.5 3.8 13.5 2.2 -0.11 -0.22 -0.09 2 t 9 0.3 0. 0.5 -8.9 -0.2 3 4 4 9. 4 0. 6 1.1 -0.1 1. 2 1.1 1.5 5( 5 5 -3.5 -0.2 -0.1 -10.7 -0.4 B2. Production and Income Comprehensive Output and Income: RD PMP in 1Q79 rlnllarc 52 Personal income in 1972 dollars *51. Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars .. 53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction, 1972 dollars Industrial Production: *47. Industrial production, total 73. Industrial production, durable mfrs 74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs Capacity Utilization: 82 Capacity utilization rate mfq FRB 2 bd. apacity uti iza ion ra e, m g., rRR2 CCC c,c,c c,c,c . . . . . . do. . . . c,c,c do. . . . 247.2 231.2 228.2 c,c,c c,c,c 1967=100... 152.5 146.4 164.0 147.1 136.5 161.2 674.5 666.3 144.6 133.9 158.3 658 . 1 C,L,L CCC ' do do. . . . do. . . . A r bil dol L CU L CU do do 85.6 82 87 . 4 1221.3 1051.3 1216.2 1045.4 226.2 231.6 229.7 232.0 233.0 1.0 0.4 -0.9 2.4 5 142.1 129.8 157.3 148.9 138.1 163.6 667 5 146.8 135.6 161.9 149.2 138.8 163.6 150.7 139.9 165.2 1.6 2.4 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 -1.7 -3.1 -0.6 -0. 1 4.8 6.4 4.0 1. 5 4 7 li 4 -2 . 2 3. 4 NA 5. 0 8 8 8^ 657.5 79. 0 NA 79.8 77.9 76 78.7 76.33 36.90 32.79 68.73 75.14 33.71 36.06 32.22 75.7 76 74 . 9 79.1 NA 79. 9 o -3 . 8 B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Orders 6 7. *8. 25. 96. *32. and Deliveries: New orders durable goods New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 dol. . Chg. in unfilled orders, durable goods 2 Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods 5 Vendor performance 2 @ Consumption and Trade: 56. Manufacturing and trade sales *57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars . . 75. Industrial production, consumer goods 54 Sales of retail stores 59 Sales of retail stores 1972 dollars 58 Index of consumer sentiment (§) .....do. ... 77. 20 41.40 L,Lg,U do. . . . do. . . . Bil. dol., EOP 267.88 L,L,L Percent C,C,C C,C,C C,L,C C,L,U ULU L CC L LL Bil. dol do. . . . 288.22 159.82 1967=100... 150.8 L LL L,L,L L,L,L L,L,L Bil dol Mil dol do A r bil dol I Q 1966=100 81.43 38.21 80.69 38.23 81.05 38.12 82.56 38.28 33.65 29.45 34.27 35.10 34.07 1.84 1.02 1.41 -1.50 1.19 1.31 3.03 2 8 0 . 15 2 7 0 . 3 8 2 7 4 . 6 2 2 8 0 . 1 5 2 7 5 . 8 1 2 7 7 . 1 2 2 8 0 . 1 5 63 40 45 33 35 44 45 47 36.46 3.26 73,837 44,800 65. 3 66.0 NA 2 9 3 . 8 9 310.16 NA 148. 54 152. 07 145.6 143.3 143.0 78,538 75,200 4 3 , 0 5 1 41,777 61. 6 64.4 50. 7 54.4 NA 3 2 5 . 8 4 3 2 9 . 1 4 NA 156.10 1 5 4 . 2 6 147.7 146.6 148.1 NA NA 148.4 1.9 0.4 -1. 2 1.72 1.1 2 9.3 7.0 9.4 2.91 1.6 2 8.4 6.0 6.4 0.43 2.0 10 2 9 3 1.0 -1.2 1.0 1.6 1.1 NA NA 0.2 -1.3 -2.0 NA NA 3.3 2.6 0. 2 11. 6 6.3 5 5 7 5 5 5 5 NA NA 75.0 76.7 64.5 2.3 -15.9 5.5 2.4 -0.2 5.1 2.9 15. 8 24.6 NA 118.8 NA 4 7 , 2 2 5 118.8 NA NA NA 0. NA NA NA 0.2 7.8 79,048 43,000 81,124 43,083 58. 7 67.8 65. 5 72.1 8 0 , 6 0 9 81,933 8 0 , 8 3 0 43,060 43,535 42,654 ( 0.4 -0.3 -2.9 0.12 0.5 1 B4. Fixed Capital Investment Formation of Business Enterprises: *12 Net business formation 13. New business incorporations L LL L,L,L 1967=100 Number. . . . 131.7 43,714 NA 117.7 117.9 NA 4 1 , 3 9 4 4 4 , 6 0 4 1 1 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Baste data1 Series title Timing classification3 Unit of measure Peitcemt Ave rage 2d 0 1980 3d 0 4th 0 1980 1980 Nov. 1980 Nov. 1980 Dec. 1980 fe 2dQ to 3dQ 1980 D pr Nov 1980 1980 Oct. change 3dQ | 4th Q 1980 .5 1979 1980 25.47 24.77 22.77 24.23 26.01 23.82 27.47 26.74 15.3 -2.7 6.4 7.3 1 14.45 21.85 14.05 21.82 16.9 6.0 -2.8 -0.1 5. 7 0. 2 4. 3 4.0 2 2 2 £ I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B4. Fixed Capital Investment— Con. Business Investment Commitments: 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment . . . *20. Contr. and orders, plant and equip., 1972 do) 24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense . . . 27. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings, floor space 11 New capital appropriations mfg 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5 Business Investment Expenditures: 61. Business expend., new plant and equipment .. 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 76. Industrial production, business equip 86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dol. . . Residential Construction Commitments and Investment: 28. New private housing units started, total *29. New building permits, private housing 89 Fixed investment, residential 1972 dol. . . L,L,L Bil. dol L LL L,L,L do. . .. do. . . . 14.65 21.64 13.31 21.31 12.36 20.57 13.06 20.61 13.62 21.43 12.36 20.62 L,L,L do. . . . 12.68 11.73 11.36 11.42 11.57 10.92 11.95 11.85 9.4 -0.8 0.5 1.3 LC U Mil. sq.ft. .. U Lg U Bil dol . . . . C,Lg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP 90.34 22.20 76.66 78.55 NA NA 68.94 25. 86 87.94 68.22 24. 93 89. 84 86.12 NA NA 71.38 90.12 96.87 26.3 7. 5 -1.0 -3 6 2. 2 26.2 NA NA 1 9 0.6 -0. 4 6 C,Lg,Lg A.r., bil. dol. 270. 4 6 2 9 4 . 30 2 9 4 . 36 2 9 6 . 23 2 9 4 . 95 C Lg Lg . . . .do. . . . C,Lg,U 1967=100... C,Lg,C A.r., bil. dol. 271. 93 171.3 163.3 A.r., thous. . 1967=100... A.r., bil. dol. L,L,L L,L,L L LL NA 2 9 2 . 55 2 9 4 . 14 172.0 172.9 170.3 157.7 156.1 155. 5 NA 3 0 3 . 52 3 0 4 3 7 173.4 173.4 171.8 154. 3 NA 174.9 0 3 0.9 NA 0.9 0 5 -1.0 -0. 4 NA 1.8 -0. 8 5 1,744 123.8 59.1 1,291 95.5 47.9 1,557 107.7 1,563 109. 5 1, 548 99.8 0.4 1.7 -1.0 -8.9 34.1 54.5 3. 7 10.2 -5.6 11. 4 2 2 8 -1.2 -6. 3 4. 8 3 -6. 40 23.6 1.44 -0. 40 20.4 0.85 NA NA NA 6. 00 -3.2 -0. 59 NA NA NA -4.10 -1.6 2.09 NA NA NA 3 3 3 NA 4 5 6 . 5 3 4 5 8 . 2 4 NA 2 5 6 . 0 5 2 5 5 . 6 0 NA 76.43 76.81 NA NA NA 0.4 -0.2 0.5 NA NA NA 1.7 -0.2 0.2 NA NA NA 7 7 6 1,053 72.5 43.1 1,412 112.0 44. 7 1,556 105.7 49. 8 1.3 -5. 0 -0. 2 -8. 75 -12. 85 31.7 30.1 -1.84 0.25 NA NA NA 7 8 B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment Inventory Investment: 30. Chg. in business inventories, 1972 dol.2 *36. Change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars (smoothed 6 ) 2 31. Chg. in book value, mfg. and trade invent.2 .. 38. Chg. in mtl. stocks on hand and on order2 . . . Inventories on Hand and on Order: 71. Mfg. and trade inventories, total 5 *70. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 1972 dol. 5 65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods 5 77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade, constant dollars 2 78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and on order 5 L,L,L do. . . . 10.2 L,L,L L,L,L L,L,L do. ... do. . . . Bil. dol 10.62 46.2 2.56 Lg,Lg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP do. . . . Lg,Lg,Lg do. . . . Lg,Lg,Lg: 426.80 257.32 70.53 In LD La Ratio 1 L Lg Lg Bil dol., EOP NA NA NA NA 4 4 7 . 0 3 4 5 4 . 5 7 NA 2 5 6 . 6 1 2 5 6 . 1 2 NA 76.61 76.76 i -70 C r\ 199 20 NA 199 90 900 f\ "\ 909 07 9 O9 Q9 O A B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Sensitive Commodity Prices: *92. Chg. in sensitive prices (smoothed 6 ) 2 23. Spot market prices raw industrials @ L,L,L DLL Percent 1967=100 Stock Prices: *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks® L,L,L 1941-43=10. Profits and Profit Margins: 1 6. Corporate profits after taxes 18. Corp. prof its after taxes, 1972 dollars . . . 79. Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj . . . 80 do in 1972 d o l . . . . 1 5. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg,2 . . . 26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm bus . . . . . L,L,L L LL L,C,L L,C,L L,L,L L,L,L A.r., bil. dol. .....do. ... do. . . . . . . . . d o . ... Cents 1967=100... 167.8 161. 9 NA 99 . 6 NA 109. 2 NA 65. 5 NA 5. 7 NA 94.3 146. 5 80. 3 97. 8 54.1 4. 4 93.3 159. 1 85 5 99. 4 54. 0 4. 6 93. 9 NA NA NA NA NA NA Cash Flows: 34. Net cash flow, corporate 35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars L.L.L L,L,L A.r., bil. dol. do. ... 257.1 149. 1 NA NA 246.1 132. 2 262. 9 138.6 Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 63. Unit labor cost, private business sector 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross domestic product (1972), nonfin. corp *62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg 64. Compensation of employees as percent of national income2 2.08 9 q o f\ 1.55 9 qp n 0.19 0.99 2.50 m-j 2.45 2.71 2.35 0. 26 -0. 36 0.80 1.51 9 103.01 118.78 1 0 8 . 4 0 1 2 3 . 2 8 133.12 1 3 0 . 2 2 1 3 5 . 6 5 1 3 3 . 4 8 4.2 -1.6 13.7 8.0 1 8. 6 6 5 1 6 -0 2 0 2 0.6 NA NA NA NA NA NA 1 1 7 8 1 2 NA NA 6. 8 4. s NA NA 3 3 2. 0 NA 6 0 8 3.2 NA 0. 6 6 5 NA 6 9 ft 9 (\ 9 ft Q "\ Lg,Lg,Lg 1967=100... 214.0 NA 235.6 240. 4 NA Lg,Lg,Lg Dollars Lg,Lg,Lg 1967=100... 1. 092 175.8 1. 197 195.3 1. 193 194.6 1. 203 200.9 NA 200.9 74. 4 NA 75. 8 75. 3 NA . .. 0.60 0.71 0.97 215.7 846.3 0.53 0.78 0.76 202.2 813.5 0.02 0.71 0.69 198.5 802.1 1.40 1.18 0.76 202.2 819.9 0.32 0.62 0.95 201.9 815.0 0.98 0.74 0.95 203.4 817.8 0.73 0.88 0.96 202.9 816.9 -0.75 0.23 0.93 199.3 810.3 -0.25 0.14 0.01 -0.2 -0.1 -1.48 -0.65 -0.03 -1.8 -0.8 1.38 0.47 0.07 1.9 2. 2 -1.08 -0.56 0.19 -0.1 -0.6 8 10 10 10 10 6. 600 1.348 6. 612 1.349 6. 559 1.339 6.638 1.355 1.349 1.353 1.362 0.004 0.009 •0 053 -0.010 0 079 0.016 10 10 qo ft n E, Q •3 c q n A-I p9 1 9 ft 1 6 0, Q 5 q9 NA 1.65 NA Lg,Lg,Lg Percent 200.1 200.8 201.7 0.3 0.4 -0 B7. Money and Credit Money: 85. Change in money supply (M1-B)2 102. Change in money supply (M2) 2 *104. Chg. in total liquid assets (smoothed 6 ) 2 105. Money supply (M1-B), 1972 dollars *106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars L,L,L L,C,U L,L,L L,L,L L,L,L Percent. do. do. Bil. dol do. Velocity of Money: 107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (M1-B)2 108. Ratio, pers. income to money supply (M2) 2 .. c,c,c Ratio C,Lg,C do. ... 6. 446 1.323 L LL L LL L,L,L L,L,L A r bil dol do do. . . . do. . . . 22 88 38.69 356.98 Credit 33 11 2 113. 1 10. Flows: Change in mortgage debt2 Change in business loans2 Change in consumer installment credit2 Total private borrowing .. . ... ... oc -\ q 9 C no £L 1 ft ^ NA 94 ^ ft 11 4 5 19 68 NA - 2 5 . 57 1.38 NA 171. 74 2 8 3 . 03 •DC A f\ p A 9 Q ft 1 NA NA 8.42 10.07 -) c p9 •DC p O 26.95 64. 8 n A f. 11 NA NA 11 11 Basic data1 Timing classification3 Series title Unit of measure PnrcBrt change Average 1979 1980 2dQ 1980 3dQ 1980 4th Q 1980 Oct. 1980 Nov. 1980 Nov. to Dec. 1980 Oct. to Nov. 1980 Dec. 1980 2dQ to 3dQ 1980 3dQ to 4th Q 1980 Strisi number 1 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B7. Money and Credit-Con. Credit Difficulties: 14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.4)® 39. Delinquency rate, instal. loans (inv. 4 ) 2 5 . . . . L,L,L L,L,L Mil.dol Percent, EOP 222.28 2.64 Bank Reserves: 93. Free reserves (inverted4!2© 94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve 2 ® L,U,U L,Lg,U Mil.dol do. . . . -1,131 -1,131 -1,070 1,338 1,416 1,279 Interest Rates: 119. Federal funds rate 2 © 114. Treasury bill rate 2 © 115. Treasury bond yields 2 ® 116. Corporate bond yields2© 1 1 7. Municipal bond yields2® 118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ® 67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans2® *109. Average prime rate charged by banks 2 ® L,Lg,Lg Percent do. C,Lg,Lg do. C.Lg.Lg do. Lg,Lg,Lg do. U,Lg,Lg do. Lg,Lg,Lg do. Lg,Lg,Lg do. Lg,Lg,Lg Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment credit5 *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large comm. banks *95. Ratio, consumer install, credit to pers. income2 ... ... ... . .. ... . .. . .. 11.20 10.04 8.74 10.05 6.52 10.89 13.18 12.67 Lg,Lg,Lg Bil.dol., EOP 303.58 Lg,Lg,Lg Bil.dol Lg,Lg,Lg Percent NA 4 1 5 . 3 3 5 9 8 . 0 1 NA 2.74 2.70 NA 3 5 9 . 2 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA -44.0 0.04 NA NA -471 -1,269 -1,018 -1,201 -1,587 774 1,703 1,335 2,156 1,617 183 821 386 -539 -599 -505 798 929 9 9 6.01 4.47 1.21 1.70 1.04 0.91 4.15 5.12 11 11 11 11 11 11 6 10 9.84 9.24 10.43 12.18 8.58 13.40 11.56 11.61 15.85 13.71 11.64 13.88 9.62 14.31 15.71 16.73 1 3 12.81 11.58 11.20 13.17 9.11 14.38 15.85 13.89 11.83 14.10 9.56 14.47 18.90 15.66 11.89 14.38 10.20 14.08 3.04 2.31 0.63 0.93 0.45 0.09 3.05 1.77 0.06 0.28 0.64 -0.39 13.79 16.06 20.35 2.27 4.29 -2.85 -0.81 0.41 0.15 0.63 0.97 -6.19 -4.71 NA 0.3 NA 0.1 NA 6 1 4 7 . 0 6 1 6 3 . 7 7 160.17 162.81 1 7 0 . 9 5 1 6 7 . 7 9 1 7 0 . 7 8 1 7 4 . 2 7 NA 14.79 14.44 NA 13.86 13.60 NA 13.49 1.8 -0.11 2.0 NA 1.6 -0.58 5.0 NA 7 9 13.36 11.61 10.81 12.77 8.60 13.42 15.17 15.27 12.69 10.05 10.02 12.03 7.95 12.43 17.75 16.32 NA 3 0 2 . 9 7 3 0 3 . 3 1 NA 3 0 4 . 0 2 3 0 4 . 8 6 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity B1. Price Movements 320. Consumer prices (CPI), all items® 320c Change in CPI all items S/A 2 322. CPI, food 330. 331 332. 333 334. Producer prices (PPI), all commodities © PPI crude materials PPI, intermediate materials PPI capital equipment PPI, finished consumer goods 1 | 1972=100. . . 1967=100... Percent 1967=100... 162.8 217.4 1.0 234.5 177.4 246.8 1.0 254.6 175.3 245.0 0.9 249.4 179.2 249.6 0.6 257.3 184.0 256.2 1.0 266.5 253.9 1.0 263.6 256.2 1.0 266.6 258.4 1.1 269.4 0.9 0. 1.1 0.9 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.9 -0.3 3.2 2.7 2.6 0.4 3.6 31 32 32 32 do. do. do. do. do. ... ... ... . .. ... 235.6 282.2 242.8 216.7 215.7 268.6 316.1 279.6 239.5 246.7 264.2 293.2 275.8 237.0 242.9 272.8 326.9 282.3 242.7 251.3 278.6 343.4 289.4 248.4 255.3 277.0 342.3 286.3 246.6 253.8 278.4 346.2 289.1 248.0 255.5 280.3 341.6 292.9 250.5 256.7 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 -1.3 1.3 1.0 0. 5 3.3 11.5 2.4 2.4 3.5 2.1 5.0 2. 5 2.3 1.6 33 33 33 33 33 do. . . . 229.8 250.6 248.5 253.8 260.1 257.9 260.7 261.6 1.1 0.3 2.1 2. 5 34 do. do. do. do. 105.6 247.1 113.7 118.3 101.7 NA NA NA 101.4 268.0 109.5 116.8 101.8 273.7 109.9 116.9 101.3 NA NA NA 101.5 101.6 100.8 0.1 -0.8 0.4 2.1 0.4 0.1 -0.5 NA NA NA 34 34 34 37 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0. -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -2.0 -3.0 1.1 -5.0 0.3 0. 3.5 5.6 1.8 1.9 0.2 0.2 -0. 3 -3.7 5.2 -1.3 44 44 3 44 44 44 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 0. 45 45 45 3.8 4.7 -7.7 3.5 2.3 4.7 NA 3.8 NA NA 2.0 NA 50 50 50 51 51 51 82. Wages and Productivity 340. Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy 341. Real average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy 345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus. . . 346. Real avg. hourly comp., nonfarm business . . . 370. Output per hour, private business sector C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 441 442 37 444. 445. 446. Labor 451. 452. 453 ... ... ... ... ; Total civilian labor force Total civilian employment Number of persons unemployed Unemployed males, 20 years and over Unemployed females, 20 years and over Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of age Millions . . . . do. . . . Thousands. . do. . do. . . . do. . . . Force Participation Rates: Males, 20 years and over 2 Females, 20 years and over 2 Both sexes, 16-19 years of age2 Percent do. . . . do 102.91 1 0 4 . 7 2 104. 69 1 0 4 . 9 8 105.17 105.17 1 0 5 . 2 8 1 0 5 . 0 7 96.94 97.04 97. 27 97.06 97.21 97.28 97.34 97.28 5,963 7, 652 7,921 7,961 7,448 7, 897 7,946 7,785 2,223 3, 261 3, 440 3,532 3,631 3,496 3,532 3,425 2,213 2, 734 2,547 2,554 2, 600 2,732 2,720 2,750 1,528 1,689 1,640 1,658 1,667 1,697 1,694 1,610 79.8 50.6 58.1 79.4 51.4 56.9 79.6 51.4 57.0 79.4 51.5 56.4 79.2 51.4 56.4 494.4 509.2 -14.8 351.2 324.4 26.7 539.7 601.3 -61.6 383.0 354.7 28.2 520.9 587. 3 -66.5 373.9 350.0 23.9 540.8 615.0 -74.2 386.8 358.2 28.6 NA 638.3 NA NA 365.3 NA 79.3 51.4 56.8 79.2 51.5 56.5 79.0 51.4 56.0 D. Government Activities D1. Receipts and Expenditures 501 Federal Government receipts 502. Federal Government expenditures 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit2 51 1 . State and local government receipts 51 2. State and local government expenditures . . . . 510 State and local govt. surplus or deficit 2 A.r.,bil.dol. do. . . . do. . . . do. . . . do. . . . | do. . . . D2. Defense Indicators 517 525. 548 564 Defense Department obligations Military prime contract awards New orders defense products National defense purchases . . . Mil.dol do do. ... A.r.,bil. dol. 11,132 5,356 3,284 111.2 NA 1 3 , 3 4 6 1 3 , 7 4 4 NA 7,270 7,413 4,581 4,591 5,113 131.4 131.9 128.7 NA 1 2 , 5 9 6 11,582 NA NA NA 4,745 3,908 4,453 142.7 NA NA 5,873 -8.1 NA 13.9 NA NA 31.9 3.0 -1.9 11.4 2.1 NA NA -7.2 8.6 51 52 54 56 Mil.dol. do. do. .....do. do. do 15,136 2,896 3,009 17,195 4,676 1,853 NA 1 8 , 2 6 3 18,626 NA 3,131 3,543 NA 3,711 4,081 NA 19,910 19,232 NA 5,384 6,329 NA 1,851 2,171 NA 19,088 1 8 , 6 3 4 NA 3,491 3,525 NA 4,117 3,968 NA 2 0 , 0 6 0 19,422 NA 5,876 6,051 NA 2,189 2,314 NA NA NA NA NA NA -2.4 1.0 -3.6 -3.2 3.0 5.7 NA NA NA NA NA NA 2.0 13.2 10.0 -3.4 -14.9 17.3 NA NA NA NA NA NA 60 60 60 61 61 61 E. U.S. International Transactions E1 . Merchandise Trade 602. 604. 606. 612. 614. 616 Exports, total except military aid Exports of agricultural products Exports of nonelectrical machinery General imports, total Imports of petroleum and products Imports of automobiles and parts ... ... . .. ... . .. Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data1 PB rcent change Unit Average of Series title 3dQ measure 1978 1979 1980 1979 4th Q 1979 IstQ LSI y 1980 2d 0 1980 3d Q 1980 4th 0 1980 IstQ 2dQ 2dQ 1980 3dQ 1980 S 3dQ to 4th Q 1980 ! %» II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con. E2. Goods and Services Movements Except Transfers Under Military Grants 618. 620. 622 651 652. 668 669 667. Mil. dol Merchandise exports Merchandise imports Merchandise trade balance2 Income on US investments abroad Income on foreign investment in the U.S Exports of goods and services Imports of goorJs and services Balance on goods and services2 do do do do do do do 35,514 43,953 -8,440 10,743 45,514 52,881 -7,367 16,492 5,518 8,365 5 5 , 2 6 0 71,627 57,560 70,408 -2,301 1,220 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 47,198 54,258 -7,060 18,050 50,237 59,462 -9,225 18,407 8,731 9,524 74,773 78,305 72,267 78,555 2, 506 -250 54,708 65,558 10,850 20,846 10,752 85,647 86,445 -798 54,710 62,215 -7,505 16,641 10, 508 81,892 82,997 -1,105 56,288 59,116 -2,828 19,113 10,646 86,403 80,026 6,377 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0. -5.1 2.9 -5.0 3,345 4,677 -20.2 -2.3 -4.4 -4.0 -307 14.9 1.3 5.5 -3.6 7,482 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 618 620 622 651 652 668 669 667 -2.6 -0.3 -2.7 1.1 -1.3 -2.8 -1.5 0.6 2.8 1.0 3.2 1.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 3.9 0.9 3.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 50 200 213 224 225 217 227 -2.6 -13.2 -1.4 0. -0.3 -12.0 0.4 2.6 1.3 5.1 -0.5 1.6 3.4 7.4 1.5 4.0 1.3 4.3 0.7 0.9 3.7 6.4 3.5 3.2 231 233 238 239 230 232 236 237 -8.2 -9.1 2.2 -5.9 -7.2 4.9 -2.6 0.5 -6.3 -3.5 2.5 -23.4 4.4 1.9 4.8 7.1 4.1 10.3 241 243 30 240 242 245 0.6 2.9 -0.7 2.6 4.6 1.4 -1.3 -3.4 0.1 0.7 -1.9 2.2 0.7 1.6 0.2 4.7 9.4 2.0 261 263 267 260 262 266 -3.3 -6.0 1.6 -1.2 -3.9 8.9 0. -5.6 5.9 2.7 -5.8 27.4 -0.6 3.7 -4.7 2.0 5.6 -10.0 256 257 255 252 253 250 134.2 NA 32.6 194.3 -0.9 0.7 -6.6 -15.4 1.0 6.0 2.5 1.8 3.8 5.1 1.6 5.7 HA 4.1 3.5 NA 1.9 4.9 220 280 282 286 284 288 NA NA 106.6 NA 5.6 -2.5 -0.3 27.3 -32.9 1.3 1.9 2.7 1.3 -3.1 -0.1 NA NA -4.3 NA -0.5 290 295 292 298 293 A. National Income and Product A1. GNPand Personal Income 50 200. 213 224. 225. 217 227. GNP in 1972 dollars GNP in current dollars Final sales 1972 dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars . . . Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars Per capita disposable pers. income, 1972 dol. . . A.r., bil.dol do do do do A r dollars do 1436.9 2156.1 1423.0 1462.9 1481. 8 1 4 8 8 . 2 1490. 6 1501.9 1 4 6 3 . 3 1471.9 1490.1 981.5 1483.0 2413.9 1472.9 1641.7 1011.5 6,568 4,487 6,721 2628.8 1483.0 1822.2 1018.6 6,650 4,584 4, 571 4, 598 904.8 930.9 934.2 933.4 146. 3 146.6 135.6 146. 7 2444.1 1480.6 1663.8 1015.7 6,737 2496.3 1491.3 1710.1 1017.7 2571.7 1502.8 1765.1 1021.0 6, 731 6,767 4,596 4,600 2637.3 1476.9 1840.6 1018.5 6,597 6, 578 4,532 4,565 2564.8 1462.0 1784.1 1008.2 2741.4 1490.3 1899.1 1026.6 6,660 4,589 A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures 231. 233 238. 239. 230. 232 236 237 Total, 1972 dollars Dorable goods 1972 dollars Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars Services, 1972 dollars Total, current dollars Durable goods current dollars Nondurable goods current dollars Services current dollars A.r., bil.dol .... do do do do do do do 345.7 354.6 412.8 429.6 1 3 4 8 . 7 1510.9 357.6 355.4 440.9 431.3 434.3 1671.1 1529.1 1 5 8 2 . 3 199.3 212.3 211.6 529.8 602.2 696.3 674.3 785.3 232.6 222.5 10.2 415.8 619.6 941.6 146.0 361.3 213.3 611.5 216.1 704.3 639.2 727.0 204.5 205.7 232.6 225.0 222.2 -1.2 7.6 421.7 943.4 145.4 361.5 919.3 126.2 930.8 943.0 132.6 138.3 354.9 357.5 356.6 436.5 443.3 447.3 1626.8 1682.2 1744.4 222.1 208.8 194.4 661.1 674.2 697.8 664.0 799.2 749.0 768.4 824.5 436.5 1631.0 220.9 A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment 241. 243. 30. 240 242. 245. do do do do do do Total, 1972 dollars Total fixed investment, 1972 dollars Change in business inventories, 1972 dol. 2 . . . . Total current dollars .... Total fixed investment, current dollars Chg. in bus. inventories, current dol. 2 229.7 215.8 14.0 375.3 353.2 22.2 398.3 396.8 399.8 17.5 -3.0 281.8 101.7 180.1 290.1 108.4 181.7 281.1 99.9 181.2 408.3 13.3 221.5 -0.7 410.0 410.8 -0.8 218.3 219.2 -0.9 415.6 413.1 2.5 200.5 195.3 203.9 199.2 1.3 200.2 204.1 -0.2 290.1 107.6 182.5 516.8 190.0 291.9 110.7 181.2 390.9 383.5 7.4 -5.0 377.1 393.2 -16.0 403.7 409.4 -5.7 A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services 261. 263. 267. 260. 262. 266. Total, 1972 dollars Federal Government, 1972 dollars State and local governments, 1972 dollars Total, current dollars Federal Government, current dollars State and local governments, current dollars . . . 256. 257 255. 252. 253. 250. Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . . . Imports of goods and services 1972 dollars Net exports of goods and serv., 1972 dol.2 — Exports of goods and services, current dol Imports of goods and services, current dol Net exports of goods and serv., current dol.2 . . do do do do do do 277.8 99.8 178.0 285.3 103.1 182.2 432.6 473.8 534.8 475.4 496.4 153.4 167.9 199.2 279.2 305.9 335.6 165.1 310.4 178.1 318.3 do do do do do do 127.5 103.0 24.6 219.8 146.9 109.2 37.7 281.3 161.6 108.5 53.1 151.3 110.2 41.1 293.1 220.4 267.9 -0.6 13.4 314.5 26.1 do do do do do do 1745.4 1299.7 1963.3 1460.9 117.1 185.5 27.4 115.8 30.5 143.4 31.9 180.1 30.3 146.8 do do do do 355.2 411.9 312.7 86.2 11.9 5.2 404.2 422.3 320.5 288.2 290.2 106.9 181.3 108.6 181.6 530.0 533.5 558.8 198.7 331.3 194.9 213.3 326.8 338.6 345.5 154.8 112.6 42.2 165.9 115.8 50.1 160.5 108.9 51.7 160.5 102.8 57.6 159.5 106.6 52.9 306.3 298.7 337.3 333.3 329.1 8.2 316.2 17.1 342.4 297.9 A5. Foreign Trade 340.6 275.2 17.9 7.6 44.5 349.2 314.7 34.5 A6. National Income and Its Components 220. 280. 282. 286. 284. 288. National income Compensation of employees Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj Net interest 290. 295. 292. 298. 293. Gross saving (private and govt.) Bosiness saving Personal saving Government surplus or deficit2 Personal saving rate 2 2121.4 1 9 8 6 . 2 2 0 3 1 . 3 2 0 8 8 . 5 2 0 7 0 . 0 2 1 2 2 . 4 1 5 9 6 . 7 1 4 7 6 . 7 1518.1 1558.0 1 5 6 9 . 0 1 5 9 7 . 4 130.6 131.6 132.9 136.3 129.7 13'3.7 124.9 182.1 199. 5 196.8 189.4 200.2 177.9 169.3 31.0 156.5 31.2 165.4 31.5 175.3 32.0 185.3 402.0 404.5 326.7 394.5 325.8 402.0 334.6 86.4 -9.6 4.9 110.0 -42.5 6.2 111.4 -45.6 6.1 NA 1662.4 A7. Saving Percent 279.1 76.3 -0.2 5.2 NA 103.6 -33.3 5.7 89.3 11.3 5.4 315.7 80. 7 4.4 4.7 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tor those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles (including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of BCD. NA = not available, a = anticipated. EOP = end of period. A.r. = annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA = inventory valuation adjustment. CCA = capital consumption adjustment. NIA = national income accounts. 1 For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available. 2 Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. 3 The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: I = leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg = lagging; U = unclassified. 4 Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. 5 End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. 6 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1} placed at the terminal month of the span. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Chart Al. Composite Indexes (Nov.) (Oct.) P (July) (May) T P (Aug.) (Apr.) T P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P (Dec.) (Nov.) T P (Nov.) (Mar.) T P T 910. Index of twelve teadinj indicators (wries 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 106) f/ \Ji ; /\ / ** ^*s* \f *J 12 * S+"\ I - '•* -'i^ Xf* Ikv**** 920. Index of four roughly coincidenttodicators(series 41, 47, 51, 57) ^ ^"^ */* 120110100- •f- +2 "'"; ' "13 930t;;Wex of six laggin| indicators (series 62,70, 72,91,95.109) 140130- 0 -1 10U- 150- 220210200' 190' 180' 170. 160' 150' 140. 130120110100- +15 9080- 70- 60' 50' +5 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) In months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. lu JANUARY 1981 KM) CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Continued (Nov.)(0ct.) P (July) (May) T P (Aug.) (Apr.) 911 T P T (Dec.) (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) if*"* P T P (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5) Index,- 1967=100 (series 12, 20, 29) and purchasing (series 8, 32, 36, 92) 916. Profitability (series 19, 26, 80) ' tt 917. Money and financial flows (series 104, 106, 110) 60- : A "' : 1 ' \/ •;« 'Z -* '.5 120- , 110- ~*" *^"v /W/"~' J tf 1*\ ^ : • • " ,: _^i -n , w V ~ *j 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index ""*" A/^^X ^ x H / V " /»^ »A \ H \A vl 100908070- X948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart Indicate length of leadi (-) and lags (+) In months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. JANUARY 1981 11 CYCLICAL INDICATORS AI COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (JulyXMay) P T (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Dec.)(Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Nov.) (Mar.) P T «! t 8. Me* outers for iwijppei goods iM materials, 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) percent of companies receiving stonier deliveries ( 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on pages 61. 64, 65, and 66. 12 JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS IA I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (May) P T (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P (Dec.) (Nov.) T P T (Nov.) (Mar.) P T private housint units (indec 1967 on hand 3* on order, 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. •§ bil. dol.) 104. Chaff in total mm assets, smoothed1 (percent) I IN 500 common stocks =10) supply-M2-in 1972 doDars (bii dol.) L 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 1 Thit series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, and 71. JANUARY 1981 13 CYCLICAL INDICATORS IA I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A3. Coincident Index Components (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (May) P T (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) (Mar.) P T Employees on nonafricuttural payrolls 51. Personal nconw less 1972 dobn (ann. rate, biL 57. Manufacturing and bade sales, 1972 dollars (ML dbTJ 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Currant data for thasa sarias are shown on pagas 62, 63, and 65. 14 JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A4. Lagging Index Components (Nov.)(0ct.) P T (July) (May) P T (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Nov.) (Mar.) P T (weeks-inverted scale) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (fail, dol.) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (indei: 1967=100) 109. ftwrage prime rate charged by banks (percent) 11 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (tail, dd.) Lf,Lg,Lg 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 66, 70, and 73. JANUARY 1981 15 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment (Aug.) (Apr.) P T ( D e c ) (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) P T P (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T 42 -I 41- 21 Average weekly overtime hours, production writers, manufactmiwg (tours) Z Accession rate, mmbcturing (per 100 «¥•*«) 5. Average weekly nffial claims, State unenployinent insurance 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 enptoyees-inverted scale) JL,L,L 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 JANUARY 1981 Currant data for these series are shown on page 61. 16 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) P 1956 57 (Apr.) (Feb.) T 58 P 59 60 (Dec.) (Nov.) T P 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Currant data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62. BUI JANUARY 1981 17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued (Aug.)(Apr.) P (Apr.) (Feb.) T P (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T ehensive E^jfeyment-Con] 60-i 5958- 90. Ratio, cMhn employment to total population of mH* age (percent) fl2l 57 565554- iCofjehensive upploymentj 37. Number unemployed, total (iii^Mi'i iiwilml state) ftj»S\_. ^ xyxA^I1 /" M AAV f| / V/ i'lr ^ 1956 57 58 */V f^j^f^" ^A/^-^W* ' lL.Le.Ul \ ^ K •» ^r^ «« V \ ^,A ^ >L I« \X 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these serlet are shown on page 62. 18 JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income (Aug.)(Apr.) P (Apr.) (Feb.) T P (Dec.) (Nov.) T P (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T [Comprehensive Ottjut and Income] 52. Personal jncome in 1972 dollars (ana rate, fi| fc"cll—• 900800700- 60011001000- 51. Personal income less bmsfo payments in 1972 (ana rate, bH. doL) 900800700- 600- 500- 53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction in 1972 dollars (ana rate, bi. dol) ^^ IC.C.CI 260240220200180' 160' 140J 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on page 63. KCII JANUARY 1981 19 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued (Aug.)(Apr.) F (Dec.) (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) T F F T (Nov.) (Mar.) F T T -~,T 160- llnt^strial Production 1 V: /^ ',.' 47. Industrial induction, total Jjindex: 1967=100) _ ^ nTccl : rt 150- \/ ^/" 140- 12 /*"" "• V\" y " ^ / 130120- V nn- 74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures (index 1967=100) [Capacity Utilization! iuu- 93 DBO. IVite of capacity utilization, manufacturing (BEA), Q (percent) 90- —*^.~*^KI^ - -~s^ ' ^^~ ^^*"**^ ^ ^^*^^^^^ ^ l < ^^^ >*^ '*^^-. Vr ^ A. rsfi [UJ. 807n- 100- 8Z Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB), Q (percent) h c,u| 908070- 100- 84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials, Q (percent) ao80- 70- 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64. 20 JANUARY 1981 ltd) CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Nov.) P (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Mar) T 90-i 80- | Preps and Delivljsj , * . * * 6. New orders, durable goods industries,current dollar (bil. dol.) •'. -.- 7060- 50- 7. New orders, durable goods industries. 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) 40- 45- 8. New orders for consumer goods; in 1972 doNars CHI dol.) ^ 40- fon 3530- 12 25- 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term) v ^ 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries / 140- 100- 60- 3Z Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) 10075- 50- 251956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on page 64. !!€!» JANUARY 1981 21 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T 56. Manufacturing and trade sate ii current dote-*- - 57. MarafaBHae and trade sates in 75. Industrial production, consumer goods (indec 1967=100) 59 Sate rf rriai dim* in 197? lUfcn Cfal rinlt 55. Personal consumption (arm. rate, bil dol) 58. Index of consumer sentiment (1st Q 1966=100) 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on page 65. 22 JANUARY 1981 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment (Aug.) (Apr.) F (Apr.) (Feb.) T P (Dec.) (Nov.) T P (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T I Position of Busgjfe Enterprises] IBuartgss Investing Commitments I 20. Contracts and orders far pbnt and h 1972 dobrs (hi dot) 10. Caincts and onfas for dobn (M. 27. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefeme, in 1972 dollars (bi. dot) X 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 1 This it a copyrighted Mries UMd by pwminlon; K may not be reproduced without written Darmlnlon from McGraw-Hill Information Sy«tem» Company, F.W. Dodge DMilon. Currant data for tnata serin are shown on pages 65 and 66. JANUARY 1981 23 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (DecHNov) P T InvestnUft, Commitments-Con.| 1L New capital appropriations, manufacturing. Q (bi doL) and«Mpnent,Q Investment Expenditures| 69, Machnety and equipment sate jnd business construction expenditures (ann. nte, bi. 76. Industrial production, business equipment (index: 1967=100) 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 80 1981 JANUARY 1981 79 Currant data for UMM «ri« are shown on p»B" 66 and 67. 24 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.)(Feb.) P T 180160- I Business Investment Expenditures—Con.[ 140- Nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. 120- 86. Toy, Q 100- 88. Producers' durable equipment, Q 60- 20-> I Residential Construction Commitments and Investment! 28. New private housing units started, total (am. rate, mBare) EuD 29. New building permits, pri LLL housing units (index: 1967-100) 60 J 89. Residential fixed investment total in 1972 dollars. 0 (am. rate, bil. dol.) *~s\^ 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 V / v 1956 70605040- 30- 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. BCII JANUARY 1981 25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS —Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment (Aug.MApr.) P (Apr.) (Feb.) T P T 1972 dahn, Q (am. rate, bi 36. Net change in inventories on hand < (ami. rate, bi doL; moving avg.-44kMry 3L Change in book value, manufacturing 38. Change in stocks of materials and supples on hand and on order, nanuractumg (bi. doL; MCD moving a»|.-WiiiJTrLL] 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 1 Thlt Mriet i> a weighted 4-tarm moving avaraga (with wtighti 1,2,2,1) placad on ttu terminal month of th< ipan. Currant date for theta iarlai ara thown on paga 68. 26 JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued (Aug,)(Apr) P T (Apr.)(Feo.) F T (Dec.) (Nov.) P (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T 500450- llnttliofies on Had and on Orderl 400350- 71. Book current 300- 250- 70. Mairfaduring and trade inventories. 1972 dotos (fai. dol.) 20090858075706560555045- 65. Book v*e of manuhdureol offinishedgoods (li. dol) 4035302520 J 77. Rstio, dtumVid itventonss (ratio) 220 T 200180160140120- 78, Stocks of materials and supples on hand and on older, / manufacturing (ML dol) |L,i&L|i _J 60- 40- 1 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Currant d*ta for these terlet are shown on page 68. JANUARY 1981 27 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Nov.) P (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Mar.) T iSejjve Common-Prices | in sensitive crude materials prices (percent; moving avg.—4-temv) 23. Spot market prices, raw industrials (index: 1917=100) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 194143=10) 16. Corporate profits after taxes, (m rat*m dol.) |Pr(j| and Profit-logins - -xyqi^i -... JIMUM-.ii- 1& Corporate prafib after (ana rate, biL dol) 80. Corporate profib after taxes with IVA andCCAdj, 1972 dollars. 0 (am. rate. biL dol.) 79. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj, current dollars, Q (ana rate, biL dot) [777 - ' I L.li.L 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 1 Thli series Is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 69. 28 JANUARY 1981 IICII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued •,Au£ iiApr.i F T 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Currant data for OMM Mfta an shown on ftftt a «n4 70. JANUARY 1981 29 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Apr) (Feb.) F T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T 63. Uni boor cat, priwte (Mac 1967=100) 6& Labor cart (cure ) per unt rf pmttonBlk product corporations, $ (dohrs) 62. Labor cast per unft of output, 61 Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, Q 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Currant data for these Mries are shown on page 70. 30 JANUARY 1981 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit (Aug.)(Apr.) (Dec.) (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) T P P T T Change in money supply M2 (percent MCD movinc 104, Chance in Mai iquid asseb (percent; moving ILLLI 250240230220210200190900850800750- 106. Money supply-Ml-B-ii 1972 dote (hi. dnU JfefctJ 106. Money sunpty-M2-in 1972 *fas ILLLI 700- 1.20-1 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 ' Thl» series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 71. BCII JANUARY 1981 31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued (Aug.) (Apr. P 1956 57 T 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 CwrvM data tor th>M uries an tbovn on p>(*» 71 antf 72. 32 JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) P (Apr.)(Feb T P T 14 Cuncnt bUto of business jiwrtid scate MOD tnoMlnt 39. Defnquancy rate, 30 days and ova, aretrw irafcfrnent km (MRtnt-flMriad scale) JOT IBaMeserves r? 91 Free tomes (hi. M-fiveted scate) MMJ 94 MCHM' bank OORHIM from theFaMRescnKiki) 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current daU for thai* Hrin are shown on p*t* 72. JANUARY 1981 33 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T 118. Seconday mtatjMfe on FHA 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 JANUARY 1981 Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73. 34 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) P T 67. Bank rate on short-tern bura hem (patent) | Outstanding Debtj 66. Consumer uutaHinent cnot (bil. doL) 200180160140- 72. Commercial and Mudriat tans outstanding weekly ityutii^ lanje uMinn,iil — banks (bi dot) 12010080- 60-< 16- 95. Rabo, consumer irabiroent credit to penontt income (percent) 1412101956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Currant diu for time Mrtes are shown on page 73. JANUARY 1981 35 DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes 950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span^—, 1-mo. span—) 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span^—, 1-mo. span—) TP,! n/s tni I r 95Z Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—) 961. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing—20 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—) 96Z Initial claims, State unemployment insurance—51 areas (percent declining 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—) 963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls—172 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—) Current data for these series are shown on page 74. 36 JANUARY 1981 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) P (Apr.) (Feb. T P T 100- 50- 09070- 50- 30- 100- 50- 0- Spot mart* onto, an Mustriab-13 Mufti «M* (*™. spm—, 1-mo. span—) 100- 50- 0- 968. Stock prices, 500 common stodB-5342 Industries (ft-mo. span-*-', 1-mo. span—) 100- 50- 96ft Net prate, manufadirae-abrf TOO companies' (4^ gnu) 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 1 Thl« l> a copyrighted Mrta used by permiuion; It may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 75. BCII JANUARY 1981 37 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued (Dec.) (Nov.) P (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T (Dec.) (Nov.) P (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T 974. Number of empto»«ei, manufacturing and trade (442 span)1 ' ..«S3l«_ 975. Level of inventaia, manufacturing and trade (44J span)1 ^ 971. New orders, manufacturing (44J span)1 976. Selling prices, manufacturing (44J span)1 97Z Net profits, manufacturing and trade (442 span)1 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (44J span)1 100- "•• *•• » 90- •*• 80- ' \* 7060- 1 978. Selling prices, ratai bade (44] span) 100- a _ t»>f >*L.*'*-^ i«y . 90- ^^\jKri§^"~^^™^^^/ -V»T 80- VK -^V .»: *?» i 1969 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 1969 70 71 72 73 74 7060- 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 1 1 This It a a copyrighted copyrighted series used used by permission; it n This Is may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion Indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business business executives. executives. Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 38 JANUARY 1981 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C3. Rates of Change (Aug.) (Apr.) P (Apr.) (Feb.) T P (Dec.) (Nov.) T P (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T 1-mo. sion 910c. Composite inda of (series L 3, 8,12, 19, 32, 36, 92, 920c Composite index of foui (series 41, 47, 51, §7) 930c Composite index of six (series 62, 70 72,-91, 50c. GNP in constant (1972) 47c. Index of industrial 48c. Employee-hours in Sic. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 NOTE: Data for thate parcant changes are shown occasionally In appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide" Indicates the latest Issue In which the data for each series were published. JANUARY 1981 39 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income (Aug.) (Apr T 223. Personal incortKiii current dobs (anarafc income n curait mnfebiLdoL) 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for th«M Mrin are shown on pagm 63 and 80. 40 JANUARY 1981 ltd! OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures (Aug.KApr.) P T 1956 57 58 ( D e c ) (Nov.) P T (Apr.)(Feb) P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81. BCII JANUARY 1981 41 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T Annual rate; Mfen dotas (1972) | 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Currant data for these serin are shown on page 81. 42 JANUARY 1981 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services (Aug.) (Apr.) P (Apr.) (Feb.) T P (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T Won dobs (current) I Annual rate, biikxi dobs (1972) | 267. State and local fNernments, Q 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. ItCII JANUARY 1981 43 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA I NATIONAL MCOME AND PM Chart AS. Foreign Trade (Aug.) (Apr.) F 1956 57 (Apr.)(Feb.) T 58 P 59 60 T 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Currant data for thm wri«« an shown on page 82. 44 JANUARY 1981 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES |A NATIONAL MCOME AND PROOUCT-Contmied Chart A6. National Income and Its Con (Aug.) (Apr.) P (Apr.) (Feb.) T P (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T 30- 20- 10J 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for thew Mri« are ihown on page 82. JANUARY 1981 45 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A7. Saving (Aug.) (Apr.) P T 1956 57 58 (Apr.) (Feb.) P T 59 60 61 (Nov.) P 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 (Mar.) T 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Currant data for these terlet are ihown on pages 82 and 83. 46 JANUARY 1981 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income (Aug.)(Apr.) P (Apr) (Feb.) T P (Dec.) (Nov.) T P T 10-1 65- 60J State and local giMffinent purchases of goods and setvtes, Q 15- purchases of goods and services, Q 10- 5- 0J ^247. Change in business inventories, Q 251. Net exports of foods and services, Q I Percent of National Income | 64. Compensation of employees, Q 75- 70- 65J 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital coiBurnpuuii adjustments, Q 287. Corporate profits with inwntory valuation and 10- 5- 285. Rental income of persons with capital consunytion adjustment, Q 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 0J 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. not JANUARY 1981 47 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Chart Bl. Price Movements (Dec.) (Nov.) P T 1969 70 (Nov.) 71 72 73 (Mar.) 74 75 (Dec.) (Nov.) P T 76 77 78 79 80 1981 1969 70 (Nov.) P 71 72 73 (Mar.) T 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for time Mries are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86. JANUARY 1981 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart Bl. Price Movements—Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) P (Dec.) (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) T P T P (Nov.) (Mar.) P T T Percent changes at arma! rate Chart B2. Wages and Productivity 345. Average hourly compenssifiiw, all employee^ nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars; 340. Average hourly earnings of production workers, private noflferm economy (current dollars)1 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 1 Adjusted for overtime (In manufacturing only) and Interindustry employment shifts and seasonallty. Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88. BCII JANUARY 1981 49 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) F T (Nov.) P h average, fcwrry compensation, all employees, :345c Current-dollar compensation (Mar.) T 6-month spans (ana rate) ,, 1-quarter spats (ana rate) jj 4-quarier spans * M6c. Real compensation 1-quarter span (ana rate) Ffa|}BlUlH(l wage and benefit decisions, aH industries— 348. First year average changes, Q (arm, rate)-*349. Average changes over life of contract, Q (ana rate) 370. Output per hour, all persons, private business sector, Q 130120110- J_ 358. Output per hour, all persons, nonferm business sector, Q 10090- 370c. Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q + 10-1 • - . - > • ^gfrv' ^x^A j&y \i \: \ 4xniarter spans V"^*' l \, 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 ! Adjusted for overtime (In manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable to the annuallzed 6-month changes. See the current data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88. 1 50 JANUARY 1981 ltd* OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components (Aug.)(Apr.) (Dec.) (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) P T Labor fwa participation rates (percent)- 453. Both sens J619 years oRge Nurnber unemployed (millions)— 444. Males 2U years and over 447. Number unemployed, workers (millions) 448. Number employed part-time for economic 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 fall-tit* 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on page 89. item JANUARY 1981 51 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures (Aug.XApr.) F T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.l ( N o v . ) P T +40-1 and local gowanent surplus or defai, Q +30+20+100-10- 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. 52 JANUARY 1981 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart 02. Defense Indicators (Aug.MApr.) F (No») P (Apr ) ( F e b ) T P T (Mat ) T ,-a.g. !956 57 58 59 60 JANUARY 1981 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 53 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T Measures of Defense Activity! 561. Manufacturers' unfiW orders, defense 580. Defense Departmat art flutoys, mKay fancftw and assistance (M. dol; MCD moving S8& Manufacturers'shipnMb, defense products (ML dol; MCD mwif fifc-4-term) 2.5. 2.0- 1.5 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data tor time Mriei are shown on page 91. 54 JANUARY 1981 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) P (Apr.) (Feb.) T P (Dec.) (Nov.) T P T I Measures of Defense Activity—Con. | 1.81.61.41.21.0- 3.53.0- 2.52.01.5- 1.0- 0.5-J 160140- [National DefensellKSchasesI 564. Federal defense, Q (am of goods and Mnices for national 1201008060- 40- 565. National defense pifdwes as a penent of 6HT, Q (percent) 10-| 987654- 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for these series are shown on page 91. JANUARY 1981 55 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Chart El. Merchandise Trade (Aug.MApr.) P 1956 57 (Apr.HFeb T 58 P 59 60 T 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 t9 for tlmv sorioc n shown on •••• 92. 56 JANUARY 1981 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements (Aug.) (Apr.) P 1956 57 T 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 NOTE: Annul took aro t>mm for MM porM prior to I960. Cwmrt dMl for Ihno nrtat arc shom on pof* S3. JANUARY 1981 57 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart Fl. Industrial Production (Aug.MApr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T 280-1 260240- Industrial production— 220200- 728. Japan-^ 180- 12 721. OECD European countries „ 160140120- 1956 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 100- 722. United Kingdom 47. United States 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 Current data for theie urlei are «hown on page 94. 58 lANUAftY 1981 IICII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Chart F2. Consumer Prices (Nov.) P (Dec.) (Nov.) P T Chart F3. Stock Prices (Mar.) T (Nov.) P (Dec.) (Nov.) P T Percent changes at annual rate (Mar.) T 6-month spans Index: 1967=100 Stock prices— Consumer priced- 19. Unfed State 74i West Germany ,J\. 735c. West Germany V + 10- 10U - ~- X'"" X %TV » "VAvA f^. 140120- JUJTfXj*'~^L . ^^^ ^-"--T. l| 1969 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 Current data for thn* twin are shown on paget 95 and 96. JANUARY 1981 78 79 80 1981 1969 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981 100«n. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A! COMPOSITE MDEXES AND THHR COMPONENTS |raarosfnIWHTSS far and irnnnti 918. Impel of UbsrtiHjiDtncalim ((series 1,3,1,12,19, 28, a, 32, 38, 52, 1M. IK) " (!» = «» ». Met of 4*nCM|i coincident md> caters (seres 41, W, 51, $V> (1967 =1«T) 93B. mdnof t itaggnc nnV OBIKS {series 82, 3H, 71, 91, «, IBS) <W-M) • *M. «ain, aHncnent rndento tagpnf mdra1 fl9S7=lW) Lai line indicator subgnups 913. Harjmal emptoyment aojuSbnEnts (series 1, t, 3, 5) 1 914. Capital mwstment coromrtinenb '(series 12, HI. (1967= lit) WB-im> 1 2J) 91i. Proiit915. Inventory abilrtf ((series investment is, at, Mf and piirctemg (serss *, 32, 3S, 82) a»=i») (19fc7=10») 917. Honey and financial lows (series 1M, IBS, UIJ)1 (1967 =1110) tin 142.6 142.3 143.2 144.8 144.9 E>146.6 157.4 158.5 158.4 92-0 91.4 92.6 98.5 98.4 98.0 113.9 113.9 115.5 107.4 1D8.3 B>W8.8 93.2 92.2 92.2 148.6 145.6 144.5 1*0.3 141.4 141.6 144.1 145.6 145.0 161.8 162.5 163.6 89.1 89.6 88.6 94.6 97.3 96.7 113.6 113.3 113.9 107.8 107.3 106,6 92.3 91.7 91.8 146.1 146.9 148.4 141.2 140 1 140.1 145.4 145 0 144.9 164.8 166,4 370.6 W.2 96.4 87.1 84.9 106.1 105.? 96.4 113.6 112.9 114^0 91.7 92-0 91.8 148.6 148.3 146.2 137.8 135.6 135.2 145.1 145.0 145.2 175.9 179.1 177.9 82.5 81.0 81.6 96.6 96.1 96.3 112.7 112.0 112.4 103.3 102.3 102.3 90.8 90.3 90.6 143.9 140.4 138.3 ternary February rl34.7 rl34.2 H31.4 r!78.4 r!80.S rl90.0 81.9 ten* 146.1 145.4 143.4 75.5 95.3 96.3 94.5 111.6 109.9 107.6 102.7 102.3 rlffll.7 90.9 91.2 89.4 137.2 r!38.6 r-136.3 April Bay 140.7 137.9 136.6 r196.2 r183.5 r]68.5 T-71.7 rTS.l 90.3 88.3 rl04.1 103.0 rlOIJ.1 88.7 88.8 June rl25.8 rlZZ.8 r!23.8 r131.7 r!27.3 rRl .1 I .roi 3%Q ffi Jiulj r!28.1 136.7 136l6 T-138.8 r!6l!7 rl64.2 r84!s T®4.5 92.8 94.0 rl4D.3 141.0 "141.9 rl68.2 175.3 B>*200.3 r«3.4 r80.4 pTO.8 r95.t) T-95.-5 V96.0 January htnanjr' ..'...'... fcrcti April June «, *Angst '"V ' ll October •hkmHhar wuveniuei Decembei %.o tm September f-134.9 October November December rl35.7 137.7 '136.6 rSO.4 m e .3 98.2 yQ7t .1 i on ?U* D o inf. I UD.i\ 107.1 109.2 r99.1 rlOl .2 r!07.2 rlD8.2 p!06.9 rl'02.6 r!03.3 pi 02. 9 91.5 (NA) r!37!o r!38.6 r-139.0 r!38.9 pi 37. 2 Ml lamary Feoriory Hhrch tune . . . . . . . . . . . August October November December MOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted encept tor those, indicated by ®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by g); ior series that move counter to movements m general business activity, current low allies an indicated toyff). Seres numbers are for identification only and do not retted series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of tte issue. The V mo.ate rawsc* >", prelmrnary; V, estimate!; V, anticipate!; ami 'W', not mailable banks af koc sens an) staM «• PIBB U art 1L *Tlje following series reached their high values before 1979: Series 910 (143.6) in October 1978, series 940 (106.6) in March 1977, series 913 (99.1) in Decenber 1978, series 914 (117.2) in October 1978, series 916 (97.2} in August 1977, and series 917 (151.1) in Noveaiber 1978. "Excludes series 12 and 36 for which data are not yet available. *Excludes series 57 for lAici data are not yet available. *Excludes series 70 and 95 for which data are not yset available. JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Minor Economic Process Timing Class I cdf Vpor month L, L, L L, C, L 1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing 1 21. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing1 (Hours) (Hours) L, L, L 2. Accession rate, manufacturing 1 L, C, L 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance 1 2 (Per 100 em- ployees) (Thous.) April May June U, C, C L, L, L L, Lg, U L, Lg, U L, Lg, U 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing 1 4. Quit rate, manufacturing 60. Ratio, helpwanted advertising to persons unemployed 1 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers 48. Employeehours in nonagricultural establishments (Ratio) (1967 = 100) (Ann. rate, bil. hours) (Per 100 em- (Per 100 em- ployees) ployees) Revised 3 1979 January February March Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies Marginal Employment Adjustments Revised 3 40.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.2 4.1 4.0 344 334 347 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.2 0)2.2 2.1 0.805 0.785 0.780 161 158 156 168.70 168.89 170.04 39.3 40.2 40.1 2.9 3.4 3^3 4.0 A .nU t 4.0 434 375 1.1 i n 1 .U 1.2 2.1 2 /-i .0 2.0 0.780 0.794 0.796 155 154 153 166.30 169.34 169.88 July August September 40.1 40.1 40.1 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.9 3.9 3.9 395 390 387 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.9 0.804 0.762 0.793 155 155 159 170.09 170.20 170.57 October November December 40.1 40.1 40.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 395 409 407 1.2 1.3 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 0.811 0.771 0.755 E>167 158 159 January February March 40.3 40.1 39.8 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.9 3.9 3.6 404 375 440 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.705 0.696 0.660 154 151 145 0)172.63 172.29 171.28 April May June 39.8 39.3 39.1 3.0 2.6 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.3 569 635 617 2.9 3.5 2.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 0,504 0.420 0.438 122 112 115 170.27 169.20 168.12 July August September 39.0 39.4 39.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.8 536 502 501 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.438 0.439 0.466 118 117 122 167.12 168.28 169.12 October November December r39.7 r39.9 p40.2 2.8 2.9 3.9 3.6 439 399 p394 1.4 1.2 pi. 2 1.3 1.4 pi. 5 0.475 0.502 pO.497 127 134 pi 30 169.78 170.18 P171.45 40.6 40.6 orn oOU 170.50 170.81 1 71 . 34 1980 P 3.1 p3.6 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17. "The following series reached their high values before 1979: Series 1 (40.9) in April 1978, series 21 (3.8) in April 1978, series 2 (4.4) in December 1978, series 5 (323) in October 1978, series 3 (0.8) in September 1978, and series 60 (0.827) in October 1978. 2 Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. JANUARY 1981 61 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^J EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Employment— Continued Timing Class Year and month Comprehensive Unemployment C, C, C L, C, U U, Lg, U 42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey 40. Employees in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Percent) 1979 Revised 2 Revised L, Lg, U L, Lg, U Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey 43. Unemployment rate, total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs l 91. Average duration of unemployment 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Thous.) (Percent) (Percent) (Weeks) (Percent) L, Lg, U U,C, C 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 2 ( ) Revised 2 (2) January February March 92,781 93,088 93,318 88,858 89,109 89,455 26,363 26,377 26,537 59.13 59.27 59.31 5,958 5,993 5,956 5.8 5.9 5.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 11.2 11.3 11.7 1.2 1.2 1.3 April May June 93,061 93,364 93,562 89,386 89,708 89,909 26,473 26,522 26,557 59.07 59.16 59.24 5,918 5,776 E>5,718 5.8 5.6 5.6 2.9 2.8 11.0 10.9 10.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 July August September 93,995 93,706 94,189 90,054 90,222 90,283 26,582 26,528 26,554 59.43 59.21 H>59.43 5,738 6,057 5,971 D5.6 5.9 5.8 October November December 94,153 94,123 94,458 90,441 90,552 90,678 26,554 26,504 26,590 59.24 59.21 59.30 6,132 6,104 6,272 5.9 5.9 6.0 94,421 D 94, 488 94,291 91,031 H>91,186 91,144 0)26,715 26,623 26,476 59.18 59.18 58.99 6,500 6,454 6,543 6.2 3.2 6.2 6.3 r3.2 r3.4 April May June 93,963 93,764 93,548 90,951 90,468 90,047 26,121 25,745 25,422 58.68 58.54 58.26 7,202 7,944 7,811 6.9 7.6 7.5 r4.2 July August September 93,732 93,793 93,781 89,867 90,142 90,384 25,163 25,312 25,476 58.30 58.23 58.27 8,021 7,942 7,800 7.6 7.6 7.4 October November December 93,887 93,999 93,888 r90,710 r90,917 p91,122 r25,636 r25,804 p25,916 58.21 58.22 58.11 7,961 7,946 7,785 7.6 7.5 7.4 r2.8 Dr2.8 2.9 2.9 r3.0 3.1 3.1 [H}1.0 1.1 1.1 D10.3 "10.6 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.6 rl.l rl.2 1.2 1980 January February March 3.7 4.6 r4.4 4.3 r4.3 4.1 3.8 p3.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.2 10.6 11.7 rl.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 11.8 12.5 13.0 r2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 13.3 13.6 13.5 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18. *Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 62 JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^^ PRODUCTION AND INCOME Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year Industrial Production Comprehensive Output and Income c, c, c 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars C, C, C (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C, C, C 52. Constant (1972) dollars 51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Persona income 223. Current dollars month C, C, C (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C, C, C 47. Index of industrial production, total (1967 = 100) C, C, C 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (1967 = 100) C, L, L 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (1967 = 100) C, C, C 49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1979 January February March 1,479*.9 April May 1 ,473\4 June rl,845.9 1,863.0 1,884.8 1,184.0 1,185.1 1,190.7 rl,033.9 1,035.8 1,040.8 251.2 251.1 D252.3 rl,891.9 1 ,903.4 1,'923!5 rl.188.4 1 ,188.1 T,193!2 rl, 037.1 251.1 1 037.5 rl!o43!s OAQ 0 L.Lry . L. 1,954.0 1,974.8 1,987.9 1,202.5 1,206.4 1,203.3 1,045.2 1,048.4 1,046.3 245.1 152.0 152.5 147.0 147.2 H>148.6 161.6 162.9 164.0 151.1 144.5 i co 7 1 OL. . / 1 ZL7 £ 1^ / .D 162,6 i AQ ,£D 1 DO 247.9 153.0 147.6 163.7 247.2 147.2 144.4 145.9 164.8 165.2 165.4 673\6 244.4 153.0 152.1 152.7 673^3 D153.5 July August September 1,488.2 October November December 1,490.'6 2,011.3 r2,032.7 2,051.8 1,205.8 1,209.9 1,211.9 1,049.0 1,053.6 1,055.3 243.2 242.0 242.0 152.7 152.3 152.5 146.0 145,2 144.8 164.8 165.0 165.3 2,077.2 2,086.4 2,101.0 1,216.2 1,207.4 1,199.2 [0)1,056.5 1,050.9 1,044.0 240.9 239.3 236.2 152.7 152.6 152.1 144.7 144.1 143.4 D166.0 E>l,5oi".9 April May June 2,102.1 2,114.1 2,127.1 1,194.4 1,195.1 1,195.0 1,037.6 1,036.0 1,035.1 231.7 1S463!3 228.0 224.9 148.3 144.0 141.5 138.4 133.3 129.9 161.6 158.0 155,3 July August September 1.47K9 2,161.2 2,179.4 2,205.7 1,206.7 1,207.4 1,208.6 1,033.8 1,036.2 1,036.9 224.2 226.4 228.0 140.4 141,8 H44.1 128.3 129.4 131.7 154.7 156.9 r!60.3 October November December pi ,490.1 r2,235.3 r2,260.4 B>p2,281.5 rl,216.2 rl,222.5 [H>pl,225.3 rl,045.4 rl,052.6 pi ,056.0 r229.7 r232.0 p233.0 H46.8 H49.2 r!35.6 H38.8 P139.9 r!61.9 r!63.6 p!65.2 681 ! 8 T boy . 1 CCQ 1980 January February March pi 50. 7 165.9 164.7 H>682!i 658 j' 657*5 p667.5 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40. JANUARY 1981 63 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^9 PRODUCTION AND INCOME-Continued U| CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES Capacity Utilization Orders and Deliveries Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month L, C, U 83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (BEA) 82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB) L, C, U 84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials L, L, L L, L, L Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 6. Current dollars 7. Constant (1972) dollars L, L, L L, L, L L, Lg, U L, L, L 8. New orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries 32. Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries ® (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) E>'84 78.68 80.43 81.65 44.16 44.68 [H)45.04 H)38.94 38.43 38.63 *83 41.36 41.75 40.98 (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Bil. dol.) (Percent reporting) 1979 January February March E)86!9 April May June July August September October November December H>88.'4 36.74 36.88 36.43 4.73 1.52 3.23 252.43 253.96 257.19 76 76 70 69 77 B)78 85!9 87!5 75.93 77.04 76.03 85^3 87!2 74.58 74.76 77.65 39.82 39.81 40.91 35.95 35.44 35.93 0.71 0.40 3.45 257.90 258.30 261.74 60 55 51 84*.4 S6'.3 76.52 75.90 77.20 39.71 39.15 39.43 35.60 34.34 34.19 0.98 2.15 3.01 262.72 264.87 267.88 50 47 49 83.*4 85.5 81.47 81.02 77.55 40.61 39.93 38.28 36.10 36.00 33.52 3.52 1.86 1.62 271.40 273.26 274.88 48 42 45 78^7 72.42 67.33 66.45 35,62 33.12 32.38 30.35 28.95 29.06 0.21 7J'.9 -2,12 -2,60 275.10 272.98 270.38 40 32 28 15.1 74!9 74.23 72.23 78.96 35.77 r34.58 37.82 31.71 r31.68 33.26 1.68 0.17 2.39 272.06 272.23 274.62 32 34 39 p79!9 80,69 r81.05 DP82.56 38.23 r38.12 p38.28 35.10 r34.07 p33.65 1.19 p79J rl.31 p3.03 275.81 r277.12 [H)p280.15 44 45 47 '82 'si 5.89 234.72 241.82 247.71 5.91 D7.10 1980 January February March 'so April May June *76 July August September October November December p76 (NA) 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21. 64 JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process Timing Class C, C, C C, C, C 56. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 57. Constant (1972) dollars (Mil. dol.) C, L, C 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (1967 = 100) C, L, U U, L, U Sales of retail stores 54. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Formation of Business Enterprises Consumption and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales Year and month H U CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Contmued 59. Constant (1972) dollars (Mil. dol.) L, C, C 55. Personal , consumption expenditures, automobiles (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 58. Index of consumer, sentiment l © L, L, L 12. Index of net business formation 1 L, L, L 13. Number of new business incorporations (IstQ 1966 = 100) (1967 = 100) (Number) 1979 January February March 274,091 274,844 283,741 160,460 159,177 E>164,058 151.3 151.8 0)153.4 71,293 71,266 72,045 45,381 44,850 44,944 69.*2 72.1 73.9 68.4 131.3 132.1 132.5 42,410 42,302 42,761 April May June 276,406 286,413 283,772 157,285 161,807 158,316 149.3 152.2 152.1 71,606 72,292 72,093 44,229 44,405 43,932 62^9 66.0 68.1 65.8 130.9 130.5 130.9 43,034 43,895 43,044 July August September 289,994 293,167 r296,761 159,751 160,273 160,068 151.2 148.7 150.0 73,121 74,871 76,666 44,316 45,130 0)45,771 65^0 60.4 64.5 66.7 131.8 130.3 132.5 44,655 42,911 44,687 October November December r298,452 r298,949 r302,117 159,757 158,205 158,718 150.0 149.1 148.6 75,583 76,421 77,150 44,803 44,954 44,881 64!2 62.1 63.3 61.0 131.9 131.4 133.9 46,478 44,811 43,579 January February March r312,458 r310,181 r305,165 161,600 160,189 154,500 147.9 148.4 148.6 79,464 77,993 76,534 45,695 44,365 42,972 H>7i'.6 67.0 66.9 56.5 131.0 129.8 125.8 44,447 44,583 42,615 April May June r294,998 292,478 294,203 150,706 147,103 147,805 145.3 142.4 142.1 75,011 74,587 76,001 41,859 41,460 42,013 5CK7 52.7 51.7 58.7 120.5 117.8 114.8 42,461 41,974 39,746 July August September 304,154 308,019 r318,321 152,027 148,342 155,849 142.0 142.7 r!44.3 78,287 78,770 80,087 43,086 42,903 43,011 58'. 7 62.3 67.3 73.7 115.3 117.7 120.6 44,058 43,266 46,488 October November December r325,838 0>p329,140 r!56,105 p!54,255 H46.6 r!48.1 p!48.4 r80,609 H>r81,933 p80,830 r43,060 r43,535 p42,654 75.0 76.7 64.5 118.8 el!8.8 0)47,225 p65'.5 1980 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23. Series 58 reached its high value (89.1) in 2d quarter 1977; series 12 reached its high value (134.8) in October 1978. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ JANUARY 1981 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 65 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q| FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued Minor Economic Process Timing Class Business Investment Commitments L, L, L L, L, L Contracts and orders for plant and equipment Year and month 10. Current dollars 20. Constant (1972) dollars (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) L, L, L L, L, L Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense 24. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) L, C, U 9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings 1 27. Constant (1972) dollars Square feet of floor space (Bil. dol.) (Millions) Square meters of floor space 2 (Millions) U, Lg, U C, Lg, Lg 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 1979 January February March 26.16 25.48 0)28.10 15.40 15.17 [H)16.99 21.23 22.48 23.60 12.72 13.56 H>14.60 88.51 [H>105.49 102.77 April May June 25.36 22.67 24.66 14.76 13.14 14.32 20.60 21.13 21,70 12t24 12,34 12.78 93.59 87.09 84,08 8.69 8,09 7.81 2K20 July August September 25.82 23.83 24.52 14.55 13.38 13.69 21.23 21.08 21,58 12,20 12.00 12,21 88.48 83.85 92.17 8,22 7.79 8,56 22 '.69 October November December 24.14 27.42 r27.50 13.52 15.49 H5.34 21.07 21.75 22,28 12,01 12.73 12.81 93,15 84.13 80.79 8.65 7.82 7,51 23!28 January February March 27.35 24.56 26.27 15.01 13.47 14.07 D23.86 21.48 22.59 13,34 12.02 12.35 104,43 85.46 82,84 9.70 7.94 7.70 April May June 24.20 21.18 22.92 12.97 rll.52 12.60 22.16 19.59 19.95 12.02 10.79 11.26 72.90 62.72 71,19 6,77 5.83 6,61 25^86 6,71 6,13 6.17 p24'.93 6,63 8.37 9.00 8.22 E)9.80 2l! 61 67! 63 9.55 69!95 73.45 76.66 1980 July August September 24.86 23.96 23.87 H3.71 r!2.58 12.89 21.61 19.37 20.86 12.24 10.50 11.53 72.28 65.99 66.40 October November December 23.82 r27.47 p26.74 12.36 r!4.45 p!4.05 20.62 r21.85 p21.82 10.92 rll.95 pll.85 71.38 90.12 96,87 D 29^50' 84.09 87^94 H>p89.84 (NA) (NA) 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24. x This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. 2 Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 66 JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS [fjj Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued Residential Construction Commitments and Investment Business Investment Expenditures C, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg C, Lg, U 61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) bil. dol.) (1967 = 100) C, Lg, C Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, C Nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars 86. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 87. Structures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 88. Producers' durable equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 28. New private housing units started, total 1 (Ann. rate, thous.) L, L, L 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits 1 (1967 = 100) L, L, L 89. Residential fixed investment, total, in 1972 dollars 1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1979 January February March 255.55 256.93 256.86 268.78 168.2 169.3 171.0 isi.'i 45^8 ns.'s 1,727 1,469 1,800 119.1 120.4 136.7 60'.8 265!24 261.20 268.02 265.92 168.7 171.2 171.2 isiia 48." 6 113!2 1,750 1,801 1,910 125.0 133.1 132.4 59J July August September 273.' 15 274.41 278.61 280.10 171.3 171.6 173.4 E>166'.4 49.4 [fi>117.'6 1,764 1,788 1,874 126.3 131.0 136.9 5EL6 October November December 284! 30 285.29 279.46 287.54 172.3 172.6 174.1 isi'.i H>5C).*7 11 3.' 5 1,710 1,522 1,548 119.4 104.0 100.7 58.1 297.92 303.20 300.05 174.9 176.0 [H)176. 1 165.0 50." 5 nils 1,419 1,330 1,041 102.7 291.89 294.36 291.99 293.49 292.17 174.2 171.9 169.8 156J 48.7 107^4 1,030 906 1,223 63.7 66.6 87.1 July August September D296.23 293.84 285.47 303.11 170.1 170.3 r!70.5 r!55*.5 4e!s 108.' 8 1,265 1,429 1,541 109.9 126.3 October November December a294*.95 r303.52 0>p304.37 H71.8 173.4 p!74.9 pisiis p46*.6 April May June 1980 January February March April May June (NA) pi 07.' 7 rl,557 rl,563 pi, 548 94.3 78.2 54.*2 43J 99.8 107.7 109.5 44!7 p49.8 99.8 1981 January February March a31o!59 April May a323!84 June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25. 1 The following series reached their high values before 1979: Series 28 (2,182) in April 1978, series 29 (160.2) in June 1978, and series 89 (63.3) in 2d quarter 1978. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ JANUARY 1981 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 67 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS [fj INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month Inventories on Hand and on Order Inventory Investment L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars 36. Change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars 31. Change in book value of mfg. and trade inventories, total 38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Monthly data 1 Smoothed data 1 2 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Bil dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg. Lg Manufacturing and trade inventories 71. Current dollars (Bil dol.) 70. Constant (1972) dollars (Bil dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg L, Lg, Lg 65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value 77. Ratio, constantdollar inventories to sales, mfg. and trade 78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. (Bil dol.) (Ratio) (Bil dol.) 1979 January February March April May June 28.12 14.56 13.64 19.57 21.22 19.68 56.8 47.2 39.8 H)5.09 15*.4 3.70 2.98 385.38 389.31 392.63 250.98 251.38 252.24 64.70 65.51 65.88 1.56 1.58 1.54 173.60 177.30 180.29 E>18".4 28.62 -1.31 20.72 18.86 16.30 14.83 68.1 43.7 57.3 4.33 0.52 2.59 398.31 401.94 406.72 253.80 254.71 256.18 67.08 67.22 68.08 1.61 1.57 1.62 184.62 185.14 187.73 24.47 15.32 15.26 0)82.3 r42.6 rl6.0 1.24 2.21 1.74 413.58 r417.13 r418.46 258.92 [H)259.42 257.63 68.62 68.95 69.87 1.62 1.62 1.61 188.97 191.18 192.93 July August September Y.6 October November December -0.7 -4.33 -8.72 -13.45 -2.88 -9.54 -10.12 r51.0 r38.9 rlO.l 2.24 2.52 1.51 r422.71 r425.95 r426.80 258.18 258.13 257.32 69.75 69.94 70.53 1.62 1.63 1.62 195.16 197.69 199.20 -CK9 -9.97 r-16.14 r4.19 -9.77 r-11.95 r-10.25 r55.5 r44.8 r47.5 2.48 2.54 1.21 r431.42 r435.16 r439.11 r256.65 r256.01 r256.48 71.78 72.76 73.94 1.59 1.60 1.66 201.67 204.22 D205.43 r-3.26 r-26.74 r-23.52 r-6.19 r-6.84 r-13.22 r72.7 -0.36 -2.85 -2.32 r445.17 445.80 447.03 r257.89 r257.12 r256.61 75.76 76.21 76.61 -2.50 r-6.13 rO.65 r-17.71 r-14.15 r-6.69 29.7 29.3 31.4 1.37 449.51 451.95 454.57 r 2 56.. 6 7 r256.27 r256,12 77.00 [H)77.19 76.76 rl.64 201.27 199.76 200.63 r5.03 p-7.61 r-6.40 p-0.40 r456.53 0>p458.24 r256.05 p255.60 76.43 76.81 rl.64 pi. 66 202.07 p202.92 (NA) (NA) 2.46 -21.16 8.90 1980 January February March April May June i!s July August September -5.0 October November December p-0.2 (NA) (NA) r7.6 14.8 -1.50 0.87 r23.6 p20.4 pO.85 (NA) (NA) 1.44 (NA) (NA) 205.07 202.22 199.90 rl.71 D1.75 1.74 1.69 1.73 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27. Series 36 (monthly) reached its high value (35.22) in March 1978; series 36 (smoothed) reached its high value (26.60) in May 1978. 2 Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. JANUARY 1981 (NA) CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS |Q PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Minor Economic Process Sensitive Commodity Prices Timing Class L, L, L U, L, L 92. Change in sensitive crude materials prices Year and month 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrials ® Smoothed data 3 Monthly data 2 (Percent) Stock Prices (Percent) (1967 = 100) L, L, L 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks @ (1941-43 = 10) Profits and Profit Margins L, L, L L, L, L Corporate profits after taxes 16. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 18. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, C, L L, C, L Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj ' 79. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 80. Constant (1972) dollars 2 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic income (Percent) 1979 January February March 1.77 2.92 3.04 1.45 1.75 2.27 258.3 273.5 288.5 99.71 98.23 100.11 164!6 loi.'o i>113.'4 70*1 -0.35 2.85 2.93 2.22 1.86 1.83 294.5 293.8 293.9 102.07 99.73 101.73 164^6 98*. 9 11CK2 66.9 1K5 July August September 1.63 1.09 3.47 2.14 2.18 1.97 297.3 298.1 297.3 102.71 107.36 108.60 173!6 loi.'s iii!i 65!7" ii!i October November December 2.63 1.92 2.33 2.23 2.54 2.48 307.7 304.0 309.6 104.47 103.66 107.78 168 '.2 96 '.7 102!2 59!i ii!i 3.43 2.99 2.43 H>2.74 316.2 H>322.5 316.9 110.87 115.34 104.69 D182'.9 H>102!6 loe'.o 60. 'i n'.'s 301.9 278.5 267.5 102.97 107.69 114.55 146*.5 80.' 3 97.*8 54! 1 9.*4 277.6 292.1 298.3 119.83 123.50 126.51 159J 85.'5 99.4 54.'6 rl6.'6 300.8 304.7 298.4 130.22 0)135.65 133.48 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) April May June Dili 9 1980 January February March -1.05 April May June -0.65 -0.22 0.09 2.35 1.11 -0.10 -0.45 July August September 2.63 0.29 rO.44 r4.15 rO.94 rl.73 October November December 2.89 1.75 0.66 r2.45 r2.71 2.35 1981 January February March "293.5 5 133.30 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29. 1 2 IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. Series 92 (monthly) reached its high value (4.95) in February 1977; series 80 reached its high value (71.0) in 3d quarter 1977. 3Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) 5 placed on the terminal month of the span. ''Average for January 6, 13, and 20. Average for January 7, 14, and 21. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ JANUARY 1981 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS PI PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued Minor Economic Process U, L, L L, L, L L, L, L 81. Ratio, profits (after tavoc^ laxes; with wiin IUA IVM and CCAdj to corp. domestic income ' 2 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations 26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector 2 (Percent) (Cents) (1967-100) Timing Class Year and month Cash Flows Profits and Profit Margins— Continued L, L, L Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share L, L, L Net cash flo w, corporate 34. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 35. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (1967 = 100) (Dollars) (1967 = 100) (Percent) 1979 January February March Y.5 B>5'.9 94.*7 247'.4 147!9 205!9 1.052 170.2 171.6 171.7 74.'l April May June 6.*9 5*.6 94.'i 252!b 147.'i 211. '7 1.079 176.4 173.9 174.6 74! 5 July August September 6.3 5^8 94!2 266. 'l 152.'5 217!6 1.104 175.7 177.3 177.7 74 .'3 October November December 5\7 s.'i 94.' 6 262!9 148.'6 221 .'l 1.135 178.9 180.0 181.7 74 '.7 January February March 5.5 s!e 93.*6 0)280.' 7 i>155*.2 227!5 1 . i 58 182.9 184.9 186.8 74*.6 April May June s'.'b i!i 93.3 246J 132^2 235*.6 1.193 190.5 194.8 198.6 July August September r5.4 p4*.6 93!9 262 '.9 138.*6 H)240.4 0)1.203 October November December (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1980 (NA) (NA) D75'.8 200.6 201.4 r200.7 75^3 r200.1 r200.8 H>p201.7 (NA) 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30. ^VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 2 Series 81 reached its high value (8.8) in 3d quarter 1977; series 26 reached its high value (98.1) in 3d quarter 1975. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 70 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis JANUARY 1981 BUI CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q| MONEY AND CREDIT Minor Economic Process Timing Class Money L, L, L 85. Change in money supply Year and month (M 1 D "\ (Ml-D) L, L, L 102. Change in money eiinnlv; ^ M 9 \ 1 supply (Mz; 104. Change in t otal liquid assets 105. Money supply (Ml-B) in 1 Q79 in ia/z dollars 1 Smoothed data 2 Monthly data (Percent) 1979 L, L, L L, C, U Revised January February March (Percent) (Percent) 3 Revised 3 Revised (Percent) 3 0.06 0.19 0.89 0.41 0.46 0.91 0.60 0.81 1.57 1.30 1.02 0.58 1.13 1.14 1.06 1.43 July August September 0.94 0.66 0.60 0.85 0.91 0.74 0.74 0.89 October November December 0.16 0.37 0.62 0.49 0.44 0.59 0.36 0.80 April May June -0.14 Credit Flows Velocity of Money Revised L, L, L Revised 106. Money supply (M2) m 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply (Ml-B) i 079 iy/£ dollars1 (Ratio) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 3 C, C, C 3 Revised 3 Revised C, Lg, C L, L , L 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (M2) (Ratio) 3 (3) n.3i2 1.02 0.92 0.85 219.8 217.8 21 7.5 858.5 852.9 852.0 6.469 0.95 1.09 1)1.17 218.8 216.3 216.9 852.6 848.8 849.6 1.14 1.05 1.02 216.6 215.9 214.6 0.44 0.27 0.69 0.97 0.82 0.59 0.57 0.84 0.44 0.68 1.02 0.68 -0.26 0.86 1.53 1.57 1.24 0.73 1.318 1 . 321 100.84 82.15 88.18 6.397 1.313 1.313 1.312 75.24 91.96 94.76 847.9 847.0 843.4 6.430 1.322 1.324 1.323 97.36 84.01 87.42 212.9 211.5 210.2 839.2 834.4 829.2 6.487 1.332 1.340 1.345 H>103.69 77.12 51.59 0.51 0.67 0.80 208.1 206.9 203.9 822.5 818.2 810.2 6.589 rl.353 rl . 348 rl.352 87.55 67.51 69.29 0.46 0.77 0.58 0.76 0.68 0.62 199.5 197.7 198.4 800.7 800.7 805.0 6.612 1.356 rl.352 rl.340 50.12 16.79 0.70 1.14 1.07 0.64 0.74 0.89 200.5 202.8 203.4 817.7 822.2 81-9.9 6.559 rl.340 rl.335 rl.341 43.45 66.12 75.97 0.60 0.95 el. 27 eO.76 eO.96 eO.93 203.4 202.9 p!99.3 817.8 816.9 p810.3 [H)p6.638 rl.349 1.353 E>pl.362 93.40 p80.59 1 .18 Dl.43 1980 January February March -0.05 April May June -1.25 -0.05 1.35 July August September 1.07 Dl.82 October November December 1.32 0.98 0.73 0.74 0.88 -0.75 pO.23 8.18 (NA) 1981 January February March 4 0.97 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32. lr The following series reached their high values before 1979: Series 102 (1.64) in June 1975, series 105 (224.3) in January 1978, and series 106 (869.1) in January 1978. 2Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the 3 span. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. ^Average for weeks ended January 7 and 14. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ JANUARY 1981 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 71 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month L, L, L 112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) 113. Net change in consumer installment credit * (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1979 L, L, L L, L, L Bank Reserves Credit Difficulties Credit Flows-Continued 110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) L, L, L 14. Current liabilities of business failures l® (Mil. dol.) L, L, L 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, consumer installment loans (Percent) D2.12 2.31 2.33 347,904 5.76 182.22 177.09 187.76 April May June 39.62 31.99 23.23 45.71 37.99 31.33 355,864 242.76 200.45 273.17 2.43 2.37 2.45 July August September 40.55 30.54 43.36 33.79 32.77 48.10 1)414,400 212.20 287.44 186.20 2.45 2.47 2.59 October November December 3.72 -21.10 36.40 32.33 24.40 309,748 395.75 184.31 138.02 2.45 2.50 2.64 352,792 243.15 190.79 274.24 2.37 2.32 2.53 171,740 428.15 381.15 436.68 2.53 2.64 2.74 39.31 33.07 4.55 93. Free reserves ® (Mil. dol.) L, Lg, U 94. Member bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve ® (Mil. dol.) L, Lg, Lg 119. Federal funds rate (u) (Percent) C, Lg, Lg 114. Treasury bill rate ® (Percent) 2 50.57 50.64 40.20 January February March L, U, U Interest Rates -692 -764 -742 994 973 999 10.07 10.06 10.09 9.35 9.27 9.46 -899 897 1,777 1,396 10.01 10.24 10.29 9.49 9.58 9.05 10.47 10.94 11.43 9.26 9.45 -1,339 1,179 1,097 1,344 10.18 -1,750 -1,751 -1,079 2,022 1,906 1,473 13.77 13.18 13.78 11.47 11.87 12.07 1,241 1,655 0)2,824 13.82 14.13 17.19 12.04 12.81 15.53 2,455 1,018 p365 17.61 10.98 14.00 9.47 9.15 7.00 p390 p687 9.03 9.61 8.13 9.26 -1,490 -1,175 -989 -904 1980 January February March 0)55.48 35.83 -1.52 April May June 2.47 -38.96 2.14 32.72 28.84 7.85 -20.05 -32.12 -24.54 July August September 13.06 30.23 29.86 -14.39 October November December r29.81 r35.90 p41.82 12.66 445.69 345.41 1,002.94 2.77 2.94 2.70 8.42 359.24 (NA) 5.87 10.07 (NA) p283,032 (NA) (NA) -999 -1,465 0)-2,680 -2,261 -835 p-114 p28 p-356 p-1,086 pi ,244 10.87 p-1,018 p-1,201 p-1,587 pi, 335 p2,156 pi, 617 12.81 rl5.85 0)18.90 "-537 "1,289 "19.68 10.32 11.58 13.89 0)15.66 1981 January February March 3 7.14 5 14.61 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 34. 2 Series 113 reached its high value (51.37) in June 1978; series 14 reached its high value (96.99) in September 1977. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 3Average for weeks ended January 7 and 14. ''Average for weeks ended January 7, 14, and 21. Average for weeks ended January 2, 8, 15, and 22. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 72 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS JU MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued Minor Economic Process Timing Class Outstanding Debt Interest Rates— Continued Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg U, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 116. Corporate bond yields ® 115. Treasury bond yields ® 117. Municipal bond yields ® 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages © 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans ® (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Year and month Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 109. Average prime rate charged by banks © 66. Consumer installment credit (Percent) (Mil. dol.) Revised 1979 Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (Mil. dol.) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (Percent) Revised 1 1 12^27 11.75 11.75 11.75 269,107 273,327 276,677 134,984 137,740 138,220 14.58 14.67 14.68 12^34 11.75 11.75 11.65 280,486 283,652 286,263 141,522 144,188 146,124 14.83 0)14.90 14.88 12131 11.54 11.91 12.90 289,079 291,810 295,818 149,503 152,048 155,661 14.79 14.78 14.88 15!81 14.39 15.55 15.30 298,851 301,545 303,578 155,971 154,213 154,592 14,86 14.83 14.80 15.'o7 15.25 15.*63 18.31 306,305 308 [ 708 [H>309,362 159,215 162,201 162,074 14.75 14.*80 14.72 13.45 11.99 11.85 0)17!75 19.77 16.57 12.63 307,691 305,014 302,969 162,200 159,033 159,211 14.64 14.43 14.24 8.13 8.67 8.94 12.39 13.54 14.26 nise 11.48 11.12 12.23 301,770 302,259 303,314 160,299 162,818 165,306 13.96 13.87 13,75 9.11 9.56 14.38 14.47 14.08 15^71 13.79 16.06 H>20.35 304,016 304,855 r!67,790 170,782 I>pl74,267 13.60 p!3.49 January February March 9.47 9.52 9.65 8.43 8.43 8.45 6.47 6.31 6.33 10.24 10.24 10.26 April May June 9.69 9.82 9.51 8.44 8.55 8.32 6.29 6.25 6.13 10.61 10.49 July August September 9.47 9.57 9.87 8.35 8.42 8.68 6.13 6.20 6.52 10.46 10.58 11.37 October November December 11.17 11.52 11.30 9.44 9.80 9.58 7.08 7.30 7.22 12.41 12.24 January February March 11 .65 13^23 14.08 10. 03 7.35 12 60 1K55 8.'l6 (NA) 11.87 9.17 D14.63 April May June 13.36 11.61 11.12 10.83 8.63 7.59 7.63 July August September 11.48 12.31 12.74 10.53 10.94 October November December 13.17 14.10 0)14.38 11.20 11.83 Dll.89 (NA) (NA) 1980 9.82 9.40 9.83 1)10.20 (NA) (NA) 1981 January February March 2 13.95 2 11.79 3 9.62 5 "20.19 174,862 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35. x See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page Hi. 4 January 2, 8, 15, and 22. Average for January 1 through 27. JANUARY 1981 2 Average for weeks ended January 2, 9, 16, and 23. 5 Average for weeks ended January 7 and 14. 3 Average for weeks ended 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and 950. Twelve leading indicator components (series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 952. Six lagging indicator components (series 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, 109) 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (series 41, 47, 51, 57) 961. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (20 industries) 106) month 1-month span 6-month span January February March 58.3 41.7 66.7 33.3 41.7 41.7 April May June 25.0 45.8 41.7 July August September October November December 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 963. Number of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls (172 industries) 962. Initial claims for State unemployment insurance, week including the 12th (51 areas) 9-month span 1-month span 9-month span 15,0 10.0 15.0 11,8 72.5 68,6 1-month span 6-month span 46.1 27,5 25.5 66,9 66.3 62,2 74.7 71.8 64.0 1979 100.0 75.0 87.5 50,0 83.3 75.0 75.0 100,0 100.0 100.0 41.7 33.3 29.2 12.5 75.0 75.0 75.0 50.0 25.0 91.7 75,0 83.3 100.0 100,0 92.5 32.5 17.5 30,0 17.5 66.7 66.7 56.9 49.0 31.4 49.7 58.1 57.8 60.5 53.8 51.5 45.8 29.2 54.2 37.5 33.3 45.8 100.0 100.0 50.0 75.0 66.7 83.3 75.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 75.0 45.0 72.5 32.5 25.0 90,0 37.3 54.9 86,3 21,6 23.5 49.0 57.0 54.4 52.9 58.1 55.5 55.2 16.7 20,8 41.7 41.7 45.8 16.7 62,5 50.0 83.3 41.7 50.0 37.5 57,5 65.0 45.0 32.5 27.5 53.9 68.6 35,3 33.3 100,0 75.0 75.0 25.0 5.9 65.1 55.2 53.5 59.3 63.1 56.4 41.7 29.2 33.3 100.0 25.0 r41.7 r50.0 r58.3 r33.3 75.0 10.0 17.5 16.7 2.0 2.0 9.8 60.2 54,9 45.9 45.3 36.9 32.3 r41.7 55.0 17.5 17.5 34.6 28.8 30.2 24.7 26.7 25.6 36.3 62.8 62.8 r32.3 r48.3 p67.7 25.0 75.0 83.3 83,3 75.0 50.0 r66.7 50.0 52.5 37.5 67,5 0.0 7.8 8.8 1980 January February March April May June r20.8 July August September r75.0 12.5 50.0 October November December 83.3 91.7 0.0 r!6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 33.3 45.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 r66.7 100.0 MOO.O 25.0 75.0 100.0 r66.7 X r50.0 25.0 66.7 33.3 33.3 50.0 r41.7 100.0 100.0 33.3 33.3 100.0 79.2 25.0 2 66.7 2 75.0 100.0 r33.3 3 50.0 100.0 50.0 r33.3 3 33.3 33.3 75.0 0.0 32.5 87.5 65,0 r70.0 r70,0 p90.0 2.5 5,0 12.5 5.0 10.0 r32.5 p80,0 25.5 60.8 46.1 3.9 33.3 70.6 62.7 84.3 13.7 P76.5 (NA) 19.6 3.9 p7.8 (NA) r64.0 r67.2 p63.7 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 36. Excludes series 12 and 36 for which data are not yet available. 2 Excludes series 57 for which data are not yet available. 3 Excludes series 70 and 95 for which data are not yet available. 74 JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued KM DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued Year and month 964. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (35 industries) 965. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated (17 manufacturing industries) 1-month span 9-month span 1-quarter span January February March 62.9 45.7 62.9 82.9 80.0 61.4 48 April May June 25.7 62.9 51.4 65.7 62.9 60.0 33 July August September 42.9 57.1 60.0 54.3 45.7 75.7 48 October November December 51.4 45.7 54.3 62.9 62.9 42.9 53 January February March 72.9 40.0 31.4 22.9 28.6 34.3 71 April May June 17.1 34.3 42.9 44.3 54.3 40.0 15 July August September 71.4 54.3 82.9 r51.4 p57.1 October November December 71.4 966. Index of industrial production (24 industries) 967. Index of spot market prices, raw industrials ® (13 industrial materials) 1-month span 6-month span '45 62.5 54.2 70.8 62.5 66.7 50.0 61.5 76.9 76.9 *45 16.7 62.5 56.2 56.2 54.2 45.8 69.2 42.3 53.8 "si 52.1 39.6 45.8 66.7 50.0 54.2 "47 64.6 52.1 58.3 58.3 58.3 45.8 p48 75.0 37.5 35.4 4-Q moving average 1-month span 968. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks 1 © 960. Net profits, manufacturing 2 ® (about 700 companies) 1-month span 9-month span 96.2 96.2 88.5 94.8 35.5 85.5 18.2 32.7 57.4 *7l' 80.8 84.6 90.7 88.9 75.0 *74 63.0 68.5 68.5 *63 69.8 37.7 39.6 *54 39.6 47.2 77.4 *56 9-month span (4-quarter span) 1979 3 91.7 80.0 16.4 90.0 46.2 30.8 53.8 3 66.7 66.7 58.3 64.8 92.6 53.7 62.5 3 61.5 76.9 3 66.7 58.3 58.3 38.0 95.4 16.7 16.7 12.5 50.0 73.1 61.5 3 58.3 50.0 74.1 52.8 12.5 16.7 16.7 16.7 12.5 12.5 11.5 15.4 29.2 62.5 r39.6 r72.9 p95.8 53.8 76.9 57.7 3 3 3 3 3.7 1980 r48.6 p62.9 (NA) p50 r81.3 (NA) r87.5 rlOO.O p91.7 0.0 65.4 53.8 46.2 3 53.8 3.8 50.0 46.2 46.2 26.4 92.5 89.6 90.6 94.3 86.8 46.2 42.3 92.5 88.7 76.4 84.9 96.2 "38.5 (NA) 43.4 55.7 15.1 1981 January February March "30.8 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 74. Graphs of these series are shown on page 37. 1 Based on 58 industries for January 1979, on 55 industries through June 1979, on 54 industries through January 1980, and on 53 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source agency. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun $ Bradstreet, Inc. 3 Based on 12 components (excluding rosin). *Average for January 6, 13, and 20. JANUARY 1981 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q| DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued Year and quarter a. Actual expenditures (1-Q span) b. Later anticipations c. Early anticipations (1-Q span) (1-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade l © 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade l © 971. New orders, manufacturing ' © 970. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment (18 industries) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1978 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 72.7 90.9 72.7 86.4 81.8 81.8 77.3 75.0 70.5 59.1 86.4 72.7 83 86 86 86 82 83 88 86 73 76 78 78 79 82 84 83 84 86 88 88 86 87 92 90 86.4 68.2 68.2 88.6 52.3 63.6 63.6 47.7 63.6 50.0 68.2 77.3 85 81 73 78 80 84 80 72 78 74 70 72 78 82 80 70 87 84 82 82 85 88 84 78 77.3 59.1 50.0 (NA) 54.5 45.5 36.4 40.9 81.8 59.1 81.8 77.3 74 63 60 66 75 57 62 62 54 57 66 73 59 61 73 62 68 72 80 63 67 1979 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1980 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . (NA) (NA) (NA) 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 77 70.5 70 78 Q| DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued Year and quarter 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade [ © Anticipated Actual 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade ' © Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 62 64 64 63 59 60 62 62 76 76 76 78 67 70 73 74 62 60 60 58 60 60 58 56 80 76 73 75 58 54 53 54 56 48 50 67 61 64 976. Selling prices, manufacturing ' © Anticipated Actual 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade l ® 978. Selling prices, retail trade ' © Actual Actual Anticipated Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 87 88 90 91 82 84 87 87 89 92 93 94 84 90 87 90 91 94 94 93 90 88 92 92 70 74 71 68 92 93 92 94 86 88 88 86 96 95 95 96 88 90 92 90 94 95 94 96 90 92 92 90 62 70 53 56 90 88 90 87 90 83 86 92 90 92 90 92 87 88 92 91 94 90 93 84 90 (4-Q span) 1978 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1979 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1980 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 56 63 88 90 90 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 38. lr This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc. Dun £ Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. 76 JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued JQJ SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change 1980 Diffusion index components August July June May October September Novemberr December 961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING ' (Average weekly hours) All manufacturing industries 39.3 39.1 39.0 Percent rising of 20 components (18) (18) (32) + 39.4 + 39.6 + + 39.9 + 40.2 (90) (70) (70) (65) (88) r39.7 Durable goods industries: 38.1 36.6 + + 38,9 37.4 + 38.8 38.0 o r38.7 r38.0 + o 39.3 38.0 + 39.5 38.5 40.4 38.8 40.2 38,6 + + 40.3 39.2 + + 40.9 39.7 o + 40.9 r40.1 + + 41.1 40.8 + + 41.2 41.4 39.9 41.0 39.7 40.7 39.6 40.6 + + 40.1 40.8 + + 40.4 40.9 o r40.4 + + 40.5 41.0 + + 40.7 41.2 Electric and electronic equipment Transportation equipment 39.5 39.7 39,2 39.5 39,0 39.6 + + 39.4 40.9 + + 39.5 40.6 + + + + 40.0 41.4 + + 40.3 41.9 Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing 40.3 38.3 40.4 38.2 40.1 38.3 o + 40.1 38.6 o + 40.1 38.9 + + + o 40.7 38.7 + + 40.9 39.2 39.9 38.2 39.6 37.3 + + 39.7 38.5 + 39.8 37.3 39.7 37.5 39.9 38.9 + + 39.6 39.5 + + 40.1 38.3 Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products 39.7 35.3 39.1 35.2 38.8 35.1 + o 39.2 35.1 + o 39.7 35.1 + + r39.9 + 40.0 35.0 + + 40.6 35.6 Paper and allied products Printing and publishing 41.7 37.1 41.4 36.8 41.4 36.9 + + 41.8 37.1 + 42.2 36.9 o + r42.2 r37.1 + 42.5 36.8 + ' + 43.0 37.5 41.3 42.5 41.1 42.3 40.8 42.2 + o 41.0 42.2 + + 41.3 42.7 + + 41.4 + 41.7 43.0 + r43.1 42.0 42.8 39.2 36.7 39.0 36.1 + + 40.2 36.5 40.1 36.2 + + r40.4 r36.5 + 40.7 36.3 + + 40.8 36.8 t 80,693 + 37,5 37,6 + Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries 40.3 39,2 + Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures + + 37.6 37.0 + 40.7 r39.9 40.8 40.2 r38.7 Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufacturers Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and coal products + o + Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products Leather and leather products 39.3 36.7 o o + 964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES ' (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries - Percent rising of 35 components 66,454 67,328 (43) (34) Primary metals Fabricated metal products + 74,228 - 72,229 + 2 78,960 (83) (54) (71) 35.3 81,047 + (63) (49) (71) 82,560 8,373 8,333 + 8,947 8,076 + + 10,811 8,621 + 11,412 8,522 + + 12,554 8,903 + + 13,745 10,121 - 13,029 9,884 + 12,847 9,974 Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery + - 12,701 10,022 + 13,085 9,941 + 14,177 9,677 + 12,931 10,790 + 14,817 9,977 ~ + 14,806 11,098 + + 14,822 11,459 + - 15,033 10,486 Transportation equipment Other durable goods industries - 14,320 13,579 + 12,672 13,733 + + 16,362 14,580 - 14,175 14,399 + + 17,487 15,222 + 15,007 15,916 + - 15,957 15,896 + + 17,767 16,453 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p" preliminary; and "NA", not available. *Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are included in the totals and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here. JANUARY 1981 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued |Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued 1980 Diffusion index components May June July August October r September^ November1^ December 966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ' (1967 = 100) All industrial production Percent rising of 24 components : 144.0 141.5 140.4 (17) (17) (29) + 141.8 + (62) 144.1 + 146.8 + (88) (81) 149.2 + 150.7 (100) (92) (NA) (NA) Durable manufactures: Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures 104.5 149.5 Clay, glass, and stone products Primary metals 140.8 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery 133.2 162.1 Electrical machinery Transportation equipment 171.4 109.8 Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures + 109.7 143.1 + 134.5 96.1 90.4 112.8 138.6 + + 121.7 141.1 + + 122.6 144.8 134.2 + + 135.7 + + 141.4 86.0 81.7 + 122.2 147.2 + + 125.4 148.0 90.1 + + 144.2 100.8 + + 146.7 112.4 + 116.7 (NA) 126.1 158.3 + 123.8 158.5 + + 125.8 158.8 + + 129.0 159.1 + + 132.8 160.5 + + 134.3 161.7 + + 135.7 162.1 166.6 110.0 165.0 110.7 + 166.7 108.3 + + 167.5 112.9 + + 170.0 118.8 + + 172.3 121.8 + + 174.2 J20.6 171.0 147.3 169.2 143.7 167.5 144.7 + + 167.6 144.2 167.4 142.8 + + 169.6 145.0 + + 170.9 147.5 + + 172.6 149.1 149.5 116.2 149.0 113.9 148.9 119.6 149.5 + Textile mill products Apparel products 137.1 128.6 133.6 127.2 Paper and products Printing and publishing 145.7 135.5 Chemicals and products Petroleum products 199.2 133.0 248.1 + Nondurable manufactures: Foods Tobacco products + Rubber and plastics products Leather and products + 70.1 + 120.8 145.0 + 148.3 117.4 + + 148.6 119.1 + + 149.4 123.1 + (NA) (NA) (NA) 132.5 121.5 + + 132.6 123.8 + + 133.0 126.7 + + 134.1 128.1 + 143.6 138.6 + + 147.1 140.3 + o 152.3 140.3 + + 153.4 141.5 + + 154.0 143.2 + + 155.5 145.1 191.1 131.3 190.3 130.5 + 197.8 126.7 + + 206.8 130.5 + 209.2 129.1 + + 212.7 131.8 + 135.4 242.9 242.5 + 245.9 + 253.1 67.2 + + 260.4 67.8 + + 258.1 68.5 120.0 150.0 73.1 + 149.8 144.7 + + 100.5 151.6 135.4 129.0 + + 137.1 130.5 146.2 135.4 + 67.7 70.2 135.8 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 71.0 Mining: Metal mining Coal ' Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals + 133.9 128.1 + 133,2 123.9 83.1 + 134.3 123.7 71.2 + + 154.9 133.6 123.5 148.9 + + 134.7 128.2 + + 89.1 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. preliminary; and "NA", not available. *Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. 78 (NA) + 159.7 + 137.9 (NA) The "r" indicates revised; "p" JANUARY 1981 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Ql SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued Diffusion index components 1981 1980 May June July August October September November December January 1 t - - 967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS 2 Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . . - Percent rising of 13 components 278.5 - (15) 267.5 + (0) 277.6 + (54) 292.1 + 298.3 + (65) (58) (77) 300.8 304.7 (54) 298.4 (46) 293.5 (31) Dollars 0.679 1.497 + 0.760 1,675 - 0.732 1.614 - 0.716 1.578 + 0.732 1.614 - 0.719 1.585 - 0.654 1.442 + 0.670 1.477 - 0.216 0.476 + 0.218 0.481 + 0.256 0.564 + 0.294 0.648 + 0.302 0.666 - 0,294 0.648 - 0.260 0.573 - 0.247 0.545 71.000 78.263 - 63.000 69.445 + 68.000 74.956 + 78.000 85.979 + 89.000 98.105 + 93.000 102.514 + 98.000 108.025 + 103.800 114.419 - 96.000 105.821 + 8.063 17.776 - 7.810 17.218 - 7.742 17.068 o 7.742 17.068 + 7.974 17.579 - 7.728 17.037 - 7.405 16.325 - 6.766 14.916 - 6.733 14.844 (pound) . . (kilogram) . . - 0.375 0.827 - 0.368 0.811 - 0.355 0.783 + ' 0.359 0.791 + 0.374 0.825 + 0.383 0.844 + 0.396 0.873 + 0.416 0.917 o 0.416 0.917 Burlap (yard) . . (meter).. - 0.350 0.383 0.337 0.369 - 0.324 0.354 + 0.331 0.362 - 0.325 0,355 - 0.314 0.343 0.286 0.313 - 0.273 0.299 + 0.279 0.305 Cotton (pound). . (kilogram) . . 0.779 1.717 - 0.725 1.598 + 0.783 1.726 + 0.857 1.889 + 0.875 1.929 - 0.861 1.898 + 0.869 1.916 + 0.875 1.929 - 0.862 1.900 Print cloth (yard) . . (meter) . . 0.691 0.756 - 0.690 0.755 - 0.675 0.738 - 0.668 0.731 - 0.656 0.717 + 0.665 0.727 + 0.684 0.748 + 0.702 0.768 - 0.687 0.751 Wool tops (pound) . . (kilogram).. - 3.250 7.165 3.200 7.055 o 3.200 7.055 + 3.400 7.496 + 3.460 7.628 + 3.500 7.716 o 3.500 7.716 o 3.500 7.716 o 3.500 7.716 Hides (pound) . . (kilogram). . - 0.405 0.893 0.380 0.838 + 0.476 1.049 + 0.522 1.151 0.474 1.045 + 0.498 . 1.098 + 0.592 1.305 + 0.624 1.376 Rosin (100 pounds). . (100 kilograms). . - 46.500 102.514 45.000 99.207 o 45.000 99.207 o 45.000 99.207 o 45.000 99.207 o 45.000 99.207 o 45.000 99.207 o 45.000 99.207 Rubber (pound) . . (kilogram) . . - 0.682 1,504 0.680 1.499 0.678 1.495 + 0.688 1.517 + 0.756 1.667 + 0.802 1.768 - 0.796 1.755 - 0.722 1.592 Tallow (pound) . . (kilogram) . . 0.168 0.370 0.152 0.335 0.167 0.368 + 0.187 0.412 - 0.179 0.395 - 0.169 0.373 + 0.180 0.397 Copper scrap (pound) . . (kilogram) . . + 0.688 1.517 Lead scrap (pound) . . (kilogram) . . - 0.220 0.485 Steel scrap (U.S. t o n ) . , (metric ton) . . - Tin (pound) . . (kilogram). . Zinc - + NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: preliminary; and "NA", not available. ( f ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( — ) = falling. 0.177 0.390 0.580 1.279 o 45.000 99.207 0.709 1.563 o 0.177 0.390 The "r" indicates revised: "p", 1 Average for January 6, 13, and 20. Data are not seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 Digitizedltd) for FRASER JANUARY 1981 79 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Q GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME Year and quarter a. Total c. Percent change at annual rate b. Difference (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 217. Per capita GNP in 1972 , .I ooiiars 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars 200. Gross national product in current dollars b. Difference a. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) c. Percent change at annual rate (Ann. rate, dollars) 213. Final sales in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1978 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 2,032.4 2,129.6 2,190.5 2,271.9 43.8 97.2 60.9 81.4 2,340.6 2,374.6 r2, 444.1 2,496.3 68.7 34.0 12.7 r69.5 r52.2 12.2 75.4 -6.9 72.5 12.6 -1.1 11.8 9.1 20.5 11.9 15.7 1,402.3 1,432.8 1,446.7 1,465.8 10.8 30.5 13.9 19.1 3.2 9.0 3.9 5.4 6,431 6,558 6,606 6,679 1,384.6 1,416.8 1 ,435.2 rl,455.3 1,479.9 1,473.4 1,488.2 1,490.6 14.1 -6.5 14.8 3.9 - .7 4.1 0.6 6,730 6,687 6,737 6,731 1,464.4 1 ,455.0 1 ,480.6 1,491.3 3.1 6,767 6,578 6,597 p6,660 1 ,502.8 1,462.0 1 ,476.9 pi ,490. 3 1979 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 5.9 8.8 2.4 1980 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 2,571.7 2,564.8 2,637.3 p2,741.4 pl04.1 1,501.9 1,463.3 1,471.9 pi ,490.1 p!6.7 11.3 -38.6 8.6 p!8.2 -9.9 2.4 p5.0 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . ^H PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES JQ GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Contmued Year and quarter Disposable personal income 224. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 225. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 230. Total in current dollars 231. Total in 1972 dollars 232. Durable goods in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 233. Durable goods in 1972 dollars 227. Per capita in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1978 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1,398.0 1,440.7 1,482.1 1,531.0 966.8 975.5 985.9 998.0 4,434 4,465 4,502 4,547 1,278.3 1,330.1 1,369.9 1,416.6 884.1 900.6 911.2 923.4 185.0 200,1 202.0 210.2 139.5 148.1 147.0 150.7 rl,580.2 1,612.8 1,663.8 1,710.1 1,005.7 1,006.9 1,015.7 1,017.7 4,574 4,570 4,598 4,596 1,454.1 1,478.0 1,529.1 1,582.3 925.5 922.8 933.4 941.6 212.5 207.4 213.3 216.1 149.6 144.2 146.7 146.0 1,765.1 1,784.1 1,840.6 pi, 899.1 rl, 021.0 rl,008.2 rl,018.5 pi ,026. 6 r4,600 r4,532 r4,565 p4,589 1,631.0 1,626.8 1,682.2 pi, 744. 4 943.4 919.3 930.8 p943.0 220.9 194.4 208.8 p222.1 1979 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1980 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 145.4 126^2 132.6 p!38.3 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41. JANUARY 1981 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued BH PERSONAL CONSUMPTION Year and quarter 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 238. Nondurable goods in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) EXPENDITURES-Continued ^R GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 237. Services in current dollars 239. Services in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 240. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 241. Total in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 242. Fixed investment, total, in current dollars 243. Fixed investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1978 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 504.0 520.4 536.3 558.3 339.8 342.4 347.2 353.5 589.3 609.5 631.6 648.1 404.8 410.1 417,1 419.2 350.7 377.7 380.4 392.6 224.9 232.9 229.3 231.8 325.8 350.7 361.3 374.9 207.2 216.9 217.8 221.3 571.8 586.4 611.5 639.2 351.1 350.6 355.4 361.3 669.9 684.2 704.3 727.0 424.8 428.0 431.3 434.3 408.3 423.2 421.7 410.0 237.7 238.7 232.6 221.5 384.0 390.1 408.3 410.8 222.3 220.4 225.0 222.2 661.1 361.5 356.6 354.9 p357.5 749.0 768.4 799.2 p824.5 436.5 436.5 443.3 p447.3 415.6 390.9 377.1 p403.7 218.3 200.5 195.3 p203.9 413.1 383.5 393.2 p409.4 219.2 199.2 200.2 p204.1 266. State and local government in current dollars 267. State and local government in 1972 dollars 1979 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1980 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . r664.0 674.2 p697.8 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . D I cdf Vpar and quarter GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con. 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) JQ GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 260. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 261. Total in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 262. Federal Government in current dollars 263. Federal Government in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1978 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 24.9 27.0 19.1 17.7 17.7 16.0 11.5 10.6 415.7 425.1 438.3 451.3 274.6 276.3 280.0 280.1 149.5 149.1 154.1 160.7 24.3 33.1 13.3 -0.8 15.4 18.4 458.2 465.1 475.4 496.4 280.6 280.3 281.1 285.3 164.8 163.6 165.1 178.1 102.9 100.8 516.8 530.0 533.5 p558.8 290.1 291.9 288.2 p290.2 190.0 198.7 194.9 p213.3 266.2 276.0 284.2 290.6 175.3 178.3 179.2 179.2 103.1 293.4 301.6 310.4 318.3 177.7 179.4 181.2 182.2 107.6 110.7 106.9 p!08.6 326.8 331.3 338.6 p345.5 182.5 T181.2 r!81 .3 pl81.6 99.4 98.0 100.8 101.0 1979 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 7.6 -0.7 99.9 1980 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 2.5 7.4 -16.0 p-5.7 -0.9 1.3 -5.0 p-0.2 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43. JANUARY 1981 81 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued H Qj FOREIGN TRADE Year and quarter 255. Constant (1972) dollars 250. Current dollars 256. Constant (1972) dollars 252. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services Net exports of goods and services 220. National income in current dollars 280. Compensation of employees 257. Constant (1972) dollars 253. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1978 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 18.7 23.0 26.1 30.5 195.9 214.8 225.3 243.5 118.3 125,4 129.8 136.6 208.2 218.1 223.3 232.0 102.4 103.7 106.2 1,644.6 1,720.7 1,771.7 1,844.6 1,238.1 1 ,282.3 1,316.5 1,361.7 36.0 31.6 41.1 42.2 259.1 266.8 293.1 306.3 141.1 140.5 151.3 154.8 239.2 258.6 275.2 298.7 105,1 108.8 110.2 112.6 H,903.6 1,932.0 1,986.2 r2,031.3 rl,409.9 rl, 439.0 1,476.7 1,518.1 17.1 44.5 50.1 51.7 57.6 p34.5 p52.9 337.3 333.3 342.4 p349,2 165.9 160.5 160.5 p!59.5 329.1 316.2 297.9 p314.7 115.8 108.9 102.8 p!06.6 2,088.5 2,070.0 2,122.4 (NA) 1,558.0 1,569.0 1,597.4 pi, 662. 4 -12.3 -3.3 1.9 11.4 99.5 1979 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 19.9 8.2 17.9 7.6 1980 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 8.2 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . y| SAVING Q| NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Contmued Ypar I Cdl and quarter 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 288. Net interest (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 290. Gross saving (private and government) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 295. Business saving 292. Personal saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1978 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 110.3 115.5 118.2 124.6 25.3 25.4 28.7 30.0 163.6 185.2 190.5 202.7 107.3 112.3 117.8 125.7 326.9 354.0 359.4 380.4 260.1 275.5 284.9 295.8 84.6 73.6 73.4 73.8 127.8 129.4 132.9 136.3 30.7 30.1 30.3 31.0 201.9 196.6 199.5 189.4 133.4 136.9 146.8 156.5 407.4 416.2 422.3 402.0 304.4 310.3 320.5 315.7 83.8 90.9 89.3 80.7 133.7 124,9 129.7 p!34.2 31.2 31.5 32.0 200.2 169.3 177.9 r404.5 394.5 402.0 326.7 325.8 334.6 p32.6 (NA) 165.4 175.3 185.3 p!94.3 1979 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1980 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . (NA) (NA) 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46. 82 JANUARY 1981 r86.4 rllO.O rill. 4 p!06.6 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued M SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME ^9 SAVING-Continued Year and quarter 298. Government surplus or deficit, total 293. Personal saving rate (percent of disposable personal income) (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) Percent of gross national product 235. Personal consumption expenditures, total (Percent) (Percent) 248. Nonresidential fixed investment 249. Residential fixed investment (Percent) (Percent) 247. Change in business inventories 251. Net exports of goods and services (Percent) (Percent) 1978 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 6.0 5.1 5.0 4.8 62.9 62.5 62.5 62.4 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.4 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.8 4.4 5.3 5.6 5.4 4.7 62.1 62.2 62.6 63.4 11.4 11.5 11.8 11.6 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.7 0.3 r-9.6 r-42.5 r-45.6 4.9 6.2 6.1 63.4 63.4 63.8 11.6 11.3 11.1 4.5 3.6 3.8 0.1 0.3 p5.6 p63.6 plO.8 0.3 0.7 1.7 pi. 3 -17.7 4.9 1.1 10.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.5 1979 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 18.1 13.9 11.3 1980 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . (NA) p4.1 -0.6 p-0.2 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . ^J SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued Year and quarter Percent of GNP-Contmued Percent of national income 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services 64. Compensation of employees (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 283. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj ' 285. Rental income of persons with CCAdj ' (Percent) (Percent) 287. Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj ' 289. Net interest (Percent) (Percent) 1978 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 7.4 7.0 7.0 7.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 12.8 75.3 74.5 74.3 73.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 7.0 6.9 6.8 7.1 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.8 74.1 74.5 74.3 74.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 7.4 7,7 7.4 12.7 12.9 12.8 6.4 6.0 6.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 p7.8 p!2.6 74.6 75.8 75.3 (NA) 9.9 10.8 10.8 11.0 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.8 1979 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 9.3 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.7 9.6 8.2 8.4 7.9 8.5 8.7 10.6 10.2 10.0 1980 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . (NA) (NA) (NA) 1981 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47. 1 IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. J A N U A R Y 1981 83 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS Implicit price deflator, gross national product Year and month 310. Index (1972 = 100) 310c. Change over 1 -quarter spans l (Ann. rate, percent) Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product 311. Index (1972 = 100) 311c. Change over 1-quarter spans * (Ann. rate, percent) Consumer prices, all items Consumer prices, food 320. Index © 320c. Change over 1 -month spans 1 320c. Change over 6-month spans ' (1967 = 100) (Percent) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967 = 100) 322. Index 322c. Change over 1 -month spans ' 322c. Change over 6-month spans ' (Percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1979 8.4 January February March 158!2 April May June 16l'.2 July August September 164^2 October November December 167^5 204.7 207.1 209.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 11.1 12.0 12.9 225.3 228.4 230.6 1.4 1.4 1.0 r9.2 211.5 214.1 216.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 13.2 12,9 13.3 232.0 233.5 234.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 9.1 6.3 6.4 r9.5 218.9 221.1 223.4 1.1 1.0 1.2 13.4 13.3 13.8 235.3 235.5 237.9 0.5 0.1 1.0 6.8 6.9 9.3 r9.3 225.4 227.5 229.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 14.5 15.3 15.9 239.8 241.4 244.8 0.8 0.7 1.4 8.2 8.0 7.9 10.2 233.2 236.4 239.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 15.7 15.4 14.8 244.8 244.7 247.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 7.3 6.6 4.7 r9.5 242.5 244.9 247.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 11.7 10.2 9.3 248.4 249.2 250.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 247.8 249.4 251.7 0.0 0.7 1.0 9.4 9.7 9.9 252.9 257.5 261.6 1.0 1.8 1.6 253.9 256.2 258.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 263.6 266.6 269.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 r9.5 rlSl'ii 7.8 rl65\6 7.8 rl68!s 8.1 rl72*.6 12.9 12.8 11.1 1980 January February March 171.2 April May June 175^3 July August September 179^2 October November December p!84!6 9.3 rl76\8 9.8 r!80.'9 9.2 r9.8 r!85!2 pll.2 p9.6 p!89!5 6.7 10.7 12.1 12.6 14.5 15.7 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. JANUARY 1981 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued HI Producer prices, all commodities Year and month 330. Index © (1967-100) 330c. Change over 1-month spans ' @ (Percent) PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued Producer prices, industrial commodities 330c. Change over 6-month spans l @ (Ann. rate, percent) 335. Index © (1967 = 100) 335c. Change over 1-month spans l © (Percent) Producer prices, crude materials 335c. Change over 6-month spans * @ (Ann. rate, percent) 331. Index (1967 = 100) 331c. Change over 1-month spans ' (Percent) 331c. Change over 6-month spans ' (Ann. rate, percent) 1979 January February March 220.8 224.1 226.7 1.5 1.5 1.2 14.5 15.7 15.3 220.0 222.5 225.4 1.3 1.1 1.3 13.8 15.0 16.1 262.6 269.1 274.2 April May June 230.0 232.0 233.5 1.5 0.9 0.6 15.1 13.1 14.0 229.0 231.6 234.0 1.6 1.1 1.0 16.5 16.9 17.4 273.2 275.1 278.4 July August September 236.9 238.3 242.0 1.5 0.6 1.6 14.0 13.5 14.4 237.5 240.6 244.2 1.5 T.3 1.5 18.2 17.1 17.0 October November December 245.6 247.2 249.7 1.5 0.7 1.0 15.8 19.2 17.1 249.0 250.6 253.1 2.0 0.6 1.0 January February March 254.9 260.2 261.9 2.1 2.1 0.7 14.5 14.2 13.1 260.6 265.9 268.6 April May June 262.8 264.2 265.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 no. 7 12.5 9.5 271.3 271.9 273.5 July August September 270.4 r273.8 274.1 rl.3 rO.l 11.1 11.0 11.4 276.2 r278.2 278.2 October November December 277.0 278.4 280.3 1.1 0.5 0.7 2.1 2.5 1.9 16.4 16.1 17.1 0.7 1.2 17.5 12.3 12.9 284.6 285.2 291.4 2.2 0.2 2.2 16.2 17.7 17.4 20.4 22.1 21.0 294.5 298.4 301.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 10.7 16.2 3.0 2.0 1.0 18.7 17.7 16.8 299.5 307.5 300.9 -0.7 1.0 0.2 0.6 12.3 r9.5 -3.5 7.3 290.4 294.1 295.2 7.4 8.1 9.4 313.9 r333.1 335.8 -0.4 6.6 1980 1.8 281.2 282.7 286.1 1.0 rO.7 rO.O 1.1 0.5 1.2 342.3 346.2 341.6 2.7 -2.1 1.3 0.4 6.3 r6.1 rO.8 -2.8 -2.9 -4.3 9.8 r!7.3 24.5 38.9 38.6 33.9 1.9 1.1 -1.3 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. Percent changes are centered within the spans: month. licit JANUARY 1981 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th 85 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued Year and month 332. Index (1967 = 100) 332c. Change over 1-month spans l (Percent) Producer prices, finished consumer goods Producer prices, capital equipment Producer prices, intermediate materials 332c. Change over 6-month spans l (Ann. rate, percent) 333. Index (1967 = 100) 333c. Change over 1-month spans l (Percent) 333c. Change over 6-month spans ' (Ann. rate, percent) 334. Index (1967 = 100) 334c. Change over 1-month spans ' (Percent) 334c. Change over 6-month spans ' (Ann. rate, percent) 1979 January February March 226.9 229.2 231.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 13.3 13.4 14.2 208.5 210.3 211.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 April May June 235.0 237.3 239.7 1.5 1.0 1.0 15.3 16.2 17.2 214.0 215.0 216.4 July August September 243.6 247.1 250.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 17.7 17.6 17.8 218.2 217.9 219.5 October November December 255.0 257.3 260.2 1.7 0.9 1.1 20.4 21.7 19.4 221.4 222.9 224.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 January February March 267.3 272.6 273.9 2.7 2.0 0.5 15.7 14.6 13.8 228.4 230.0 232.0 April May June 274.3 275.4 277.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 r7.9 236.2 236.6 238.3 9.9 9.9 203.7 206.1 208.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 12.7 12.7 11.1 1.1 0.5 0.7 9.5 7.4 7.6 209.7 210.8 212.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 11.2 12.2 13.7 0.8 7.0 7.5 7.9 214.8 218.3 222.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 14.9 16.9 17.6 9.6 11.4 11.7 224.8 227.9 229.9 1.2 1.4 0.9 18.3 18.5 18.0 1.6 0.7 0.9 13.8 12.7 12.4 233.6 237.6 241.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 15.6 13.3 12.9 1.8 0.2 0.7 11.9 H2.0 241.7 242.6 244.3 0.1 0.4 0.7 r!3.2 9.2 248.7 r252.8 252.3 1.8 1.6 -0.1 0.7 11.1 1980 July August September 280.0 r283.2 283.7 October November December 286.3 289.1 292.9 0.9 rl.l rO.2 0.9 1.0 1.3 9.7 7.3 8.9 10.2 11.3 241.6 r243.4 243.2 246.6 248.0 250.5 1.4 rO.7 -0.1 1.4 0.6 1.0 9.9 9.0 9.9 10.5 253.8 255.5 256.7 13.3 10.3 10.9 10.4 -0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. Percent changes are centered within the spans: month. 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th JANUARY 1981 BCD OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Qj WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector Average hourly earnings, production workers, private noniarm economy, adjusted ' Year and month Current-dollar earnings 340. Index (1967 = 100) 340c. Change over 1 -month spans 2 (Percent) Current-dollar compensation Real earnings 340c. Change over 6-month spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) 341. Index (1967 = 100) 341c. Change over 1-month spans 2 (Percent) 341 c. Change over 6-month spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) 345. Index (1967 = 100) 345c. Change over 1 -quarter spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) 345c. Change over 4-quarter spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) 1979 January February March 222.6 224.0 225.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 7.8 7.6 7.5 108.4 107.8 107.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -3.3 -4.2 -4.9 239*5 April May June 226.7 227.6 229.2 0.7 0.4 0.7 7.5 7.6 8.2 106.9 106.3 105.9 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -5.2 -4.9 -4.5 244! 2 July August September 230.8 232.3 234.3 0.7 0.6 0.9 7.5 8.8 9.1 105.5 105.2 104.9 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -5.1 -4.0 -4.0 249! 2 October November December 235.0 237.3 239.4 0.3 1.0 0.9 8.4 8.9 9.6 104.2 104.1 103.8 -0.7 -0.1 -0.3 -5.3 -5.5 -5.5 254^6 240.3 242.4 245.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 9.8 9.4 9.8 102.7 102.2 102.0 -1.1 -0.5 -0.2 -5.2 -5.2 -4.3 261 !l 246.2 248.3 250.9 0.4 0.9 1.0 101.4 101.4 101.5 -0.6 0.0 0.1 -1.4 -0.3 -0.8 268!6 July August September 252.1 254.0 255.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.0 rO.2 rO.4 October November December r257.9 r260.7 p261.6 10.2 8.9 8.1 8.9 8.5 9*6 9.0 "9^7 19SO January February March April May June rl.O rl.l pO.3 10.0 9.8 8.4 r9.7 rlO.2 p8.7 102.0 102.0 101.5 rl01.5 rlOl.6 plOO.8 -0.5 10.5 11.0 (NA) 8.9 273.*7 pi. 3 r-0.0 rO.l 9*8 (NA) (NA) p-0,8 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. 1 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. 2 Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. JANUARY 1981 87 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued HM WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector— Continued Year and month 348. First year average changes Real compensation 346. Index (1967-100) 346c. Change over 1-quarter spans ' (Ann. rate, percent) Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries <u) 346c. Change over 4-quarter spans ' (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 349. Average changes over life of contract (Ann. rate, percent) Output per hour, all persons private business sector 370. Index (1967 = 100) 370c. Change over 1-quarter spans 1 370c. Change over 4-quarter spans l (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 358. Index of output per hour all persons, nonfarm business sector (1967-100) 1979 January February March nsia April May June 114J July August September 112".9 October November December n i '. 7 2.8 -0.9 5.3 -2*.6 -4.2 10.5 7.8 -3A 4!i -1.4 117.*8 8.5 6.0 -l'.6 ]io\6 -K7 ns'.i -i!6 ii5!6 -\\k 115'.2 -O.'s 114.9 (NA) iiiis -2.0 6.1 -4.*5 -4.0 -3.1 llS.'i 9.0 -4.3 ns!9 n?!7 -0.3 1980 January February March -5.5 no. i April May June ' p8.6 -2.4 109^5 July August September 109*.9 October November December (NA) p6.4 plO.l p6.8 (NA) 1.6 -0.3 117.*7 -2.6 pll.6 neis -2.7 0,3 P7.3 116*9 (NA) p8.3 p5.9 114J3 (NA) (NA) (NA) 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. 1 Percent changes are centered within the spans: placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are JANUARY 1981 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Q CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS Civilian labor force Year and month 441. Total 442. Em- ployed (Thous.) (Thous.) Labor force participation rates 448. Num- Number unemployed 451. Males 20 years and over 452. Females 20 years and over 453. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Thous.) Revised1 Revised 1 Revised 1 37. Total 444. Males 20 years and over 445. Females 20 years and over 446. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 447. Fulltime workers (Thous.) ber employed part-time for economic reasons (Thous.) Revised 1 Revised 1 C1) January February March 102,014 102,393 102,578 96,056 96,400 96,622 80.0 80.1 79.9 50.1 50.3 50.5 58.8 58.9 58.7 5,958 5,993 5,956 2,201 2,188 2,188 2,205 2,251 2,246 1,552 1,554 1,522 4,573 4,692 4,602 3,234 3,209 3,248 April May June 102,213 102,366 102,556 96,295 96,590 96,838 79.8 79.7 79.7 50.2 50.3 50.4 58.4 57.9 57.8 5,918 5,776 5,718 2,165 2,083 2,097 2,178 2,147 2,177 1,575 1,546 1,444 4,621 4,450 4,422 3,279 3,252 3,267 July August September 103,015 103,105 103,492 97,277 97,048 97,521 79.9 79.8 79.9 50.7 51.0 50.9 57.6 56.6 58.1 5,738 6,057 5,971 2,177 2,235 2,232 2,122 2,303 2,180 1,439 1,519 1,559 4,484 4,661 4,670 3,243 3,286 3,155 October November December 103,566 103,605 104,053 97,434 97,501 97,781 79.7 79.5 79.5 50.9 50.9 51.2 57.7 57.9 58.5 6,132 6,104 6,272 2,233 2,385 2,435 2,240 2,214 2,276 1,559 1,505 1,561 4,785 4,814 4,911 3,289 3,405 3,541 January February March 104,208 104,271 104,171 97,708 97,817 97,628 r79.5 79.6 79.4 51.3 51.3 51.2 58.0 57.5 57.4 6,500 6,454 6,543 2,629 2,581 2,736 2,314 2,311 2,295 1,557 1,562 1,512 5,130 5,114 5,265 3,549 3,454 3,470 April May June 104,427 105,060 104,591 97,225 97,116 96,780 79.5 79.9 79.4 51.4 51.5 51.4 56.5 57.9 56.7 7,202 7,944 7,811 3,192 3,569 3,558 2,501 2,593 2,569 1,509 1,782 1,684 5,825 6,586 6,430 3,803 4,276 3,969 July August September 105,020 104,945 104,980 96,999 97,003 97,180 r79.4 r79.4 r79.4 51.5 51.6 51.3 57.1 55.5 56.7 8,021 7,942 7,800 3,630 3,612 3,652 2,655 2,633 2,513 1,736 1,697 1,635 6,631 6,553 6,516 4,086 4,143 4,183 October November December 105,167 105,285 p!05,067 97,206 97,339 97,282 79.3 r79.2 51.4 51.5 51.4 56.8 56.5 56.0 7,961 7,946 7,785 3,532 3,532 3,425 2,732 2,720 2,750 1,697 1,694 1,610 6,559 6,632 6,549 4,220 4,176 4,218 1979 Revised 1 Revised 1 1980 79.0 1981 January February March ... April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 51. 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ JANUARY 1981 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Q DEFENSE INDICATORS Hj RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES State and local governments ' Federal Government ' Year and month Advance measures of defense activity 500. Surplus or deficit 501. Receipts 502. Expenditures 510. Surplus or deficit 511. Receipts 512. Expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred 525. Defense Department military prime contract awards 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding 548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 1979 January February March -1l!5 April May June -s!i 477!6 488^4 29^5 5,706 4,773 5,763 65,120 48,267 67,128 2,684 3,871 3,102 320 '. 8 ... 9,297 10,935 10,926 4,936 4,720 5,117 68,883 68,468 68,976 3,181 3,640 2,464 31K4 485 ! 9 494^6 21 '.9 342^7 .. . ... 10,787 10,250 11,741 340 ! 9 ... July August September -is.'z 500 .' 6 S15.8 26\5 355! 4 r328.'9 12,657 11,052 11,965 6,135 5,282 6,364 70,252 81,542 71 ,886 2,332 3,029 4,237 October November . . December -24 .*5 514!6 538.' 6 2&\9 365^6 336\7 11,679 10,730 11,565 4,318 5,670 5,489 64,325 ' 68,634 68,525 3,048 4,033 3,787 January February March -36 '.3 528 '.4 ... 564 '.7 26*. 6 372 '.1 345 '.4 12,563 12,419 14,757 5,515 7,152 5,781 70,088 68,497 72,961 3,352 3,680 4,594 April May June -66 '.5 520^9 587^3 23!9 373!9 350 ! 6 13,639 14,206 12,193 7,572 7,483 7,184 73,766 74,848 75,204 4,948 5,279 3,546 July August September -74^2 540.8 615.6 28.6 386.8 358.2 12,973 14,310 13,949 6,768 7,633 7,410 76,366 76,506 79,260 4,366 4,515 6,458 October November December (NA) p638*.3 (NA) (NA) 12,596 11,582 (NA) \ '«• / (NA) 77,930 76^530 3,908 r4[453 p5,873 1980 p365!3 (NA) (NA) 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53. 1 Based on national income and product accounts. 90 JANUARY 1981 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued Qj DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued National defense purchases Intermediate and final measures of defense activity Year and month 557. Output of defense and space equipment 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products 580. Defense Department net outlays (1967 = 100) (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products 570. Employment in defense products industries (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) (Thous.) Defense Department personnel 577. Military, active duty © 578. Civilian, direct hire employment ® (Thous.) (Thous.) 564. Federal purchases of goods and services 565. Federal purchases as a percent of GNP (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) (Percent) 1979 January February March 92.3 92.4 93.0 7,397 7,485 7,586 43,409 44,515 44,588 9,645 9,452 9,525 2,838 2,765 3,029 1,242 1,262 1,278 2,040 2,030 2,026 972 971 968 lOeib 4^5 April May June 92.1 92.4 92.2 7,573 7,806 7,953 44,854 45,670 45,138 9,299 9,781 9,425 2,915 2,824 2,996 1,283 1,289 1,299 2,022 2,018 2,024 968 972 979 108 .'l 4^6 July August September 92.9 91.9 93.8 8,048 8,178 8,553 44,656 44,697 46,000 10,499 10,103 9,982 2,814 2,988 2,934 1,310 1,312 1,324 2,027 2,024 2,027 982 974 960 112!6 4,'e October November December 95.4 96.4 96.7 8,871 9,275 9,462 46,010 46,893 47,492 9,982 10,206 11,182 3,038 3,150 3,188 1,336 1,349 1,356 2,030 2,029 2,020 964 967 967 118,'7 4^8 January February March 97.0 97.2 97.1 9,592 9,619 It), 075 47,769 48,196 49,401 11,341 10,632 11,235 3,076 3,253 3,389 1,359 1,366 1,377 2,029 2,032 2,033 964 965 966 ... 125.0 ... 4^9 April May June 97,6 97.2 96.8 10,277 10,451 10,588 51,061 52,902 53,011 11,356 11,061 11,480 3,286 3,440 3,435 1,373 1,375 1,373 2,028 2,031 2,034 969 975 988 128.*7 July August September 97.2 96.9 97.4 10,908 11,177 11,310 53,922 55,112 57,771 11,303 11,135 11,648 3,453 3,324 3,798 1,371 1,379 1,384 2,044 2,049 2,051 990 973 971 ... 131,4 ... 11,647 11,833 57,904 r58,501 p60,618 r!2,371 11,209 13,243 3,776 r3,858 p3,756 rl,394 pi, 400 2,053 2,056 971 972 p!42!7 1980 October November December r98.5 rlOO.2 plOl.3 (NA) (NA) {NA) ... 5.0 ... 5.0 p5!2 (NA) 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ JANUARY 1981 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 91 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Qj MERCHANDISE TRADE Year and month 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total 604. Exports of agricultural products (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 612. General imports, total 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 1979 January February March 13,265 13,616 14,297 2,338 2,424 2,682 2,682 2,832 2,917 16,528 14,605 15,358 3,580 3,634 3,667 1,963 1,706 1,589 April May June 13,979 14,083 14,817 2,547 2,450 2,909 2,706 2,859 3,034 15,841 16,438 16,835 3,832 4,000 4,199 1,956 1,851 1,730 July August September 15,691 15,713 15,822 3,103 3,141 3,059 3,022 3,241 3,153 16,806 18,277 18,407 4,692 4,949 5,662 1,815 2,113 1,849 October November December 16,680 16,928 16,742 3,254 3,415 3,434 3,251 3,172 3,240 19,037 18,548 19,665 6,050 5,351 6,502 1,805 1,984 1,871 January February March 17,348 17,233 18,534 3,439 3,520 3,331 3,297 3,454 3,423 20,945 21,640 20,607 5,614 7,741 6,991 1,899 2,035 1,960 April May June 18,468 17,678 18,642 3,285 3,083 3,024 3,571 3,620 3,943 19,308 20,528 19,893 5,185 7,191 6,611 1,710 1,999 1,843 July August September 18,075 19,103 18,701 3,300 3,682 3,648 3,985 4,230 4,027 18,995 19,236 19,465 5,153 6,018 4,982 2,103 2,139 2,270 October November December 19,088 18,634 3,491 3,525 4,117 3,968 20,060 19,422 5,876 6,051 2,189 2,314 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1980 (NA) (NA) 1981 January February March April May June July August September October . . . November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56. 92 JANUARY 1981 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Q| GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS) Merchandise, adjusted ' Goods and services Year and month 667. Balance (Mil. dol.) 668. Exports (Mil. dol.) 669. Imports (Mil. dol.) 622. Balance (Mil. dol.) 618. Exports (Mil. dol.) Income on investments 620. Imports (Mil. dol.) 651. U.S. investments abroad (Mil. dol.) 652. Foreign investments in the United States (Mil. dol.) 1979 January February March 2,732 65,667 62,935 -5,11*4 41,805 46,919 14,263 7,225 -110 67,763 67,873 -8,070 42,815 50,885 15,250 7,980 July August September 2,506 74,773 72,267 -7,060 47,198 54,258 18,050 8,731 October November December -250 78,305 78,555 -9,225 50,237 59,462 18,407 9,524 -798 85,647 86,445 -10,850 54,708 65,558 20,846 10,752 April May June 1980 January February March April May June -1,1*05 81,892 82,997 -7,505 54,710 62,215 16,641 10,508 July August September p6,377 p86,403 p80,026 p-2,828 p56,288 p59,116 pl9,113 p!0,646 October November December (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). JANUARY 1981 ItCII 93 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS QH INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Year and month 47. United States, index of industrial production (1967 = 100) 721. OECD 1 European countries, index of industrial production (1967 = 100) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (1967 = 100) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (1967 = 100) 726. France, index of industrial production (1967 = 100) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production 727. Italy, index of industrial production (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (1967 = 100) 1979 January February March 152.0 152.5 153.5 154 156 157 210.2 213.1 213.1 159 157 161 158 159 161 122 132 133 152.8 160.0 156.0 160.8 161.0 162.0 April May June 151.1 152.7 153.0 158 158 158 214.4 218.2 218.5 161 164 164 159 163 163 132 134 136 156.7 151.9 145.1 160.3 162.1 160.6 July August September 153.0 152.1 152.7 163 160 161 221.2 221.8 220.5 168 164 164 168 168 165 134 130 150.4 150.1 159.4 163.1 163.3 165.4 October November December 152.7 152.3 152.5 225.0 228,1 228.4 166 167 167 r!63 163 163 163 165 r!31 166.8 167.3 164.7 164.7 163.7 160.8 165 166 130 rl26 168.5 175.8 174.2 160.9 161.2 164.2 H75.8 r!61.9 r!67.0 160.6 157.3 155.9 164.3 141.9 H60.2 155.5 157.2 r!60.1 p!61.9 H61.3 pi 62. 6 r!63 r!29 130 132 1980 January February March 152.7 152.6 152.1 164 165 165 230.9 243.3 235.0 168 170 170 April May June 148.3 144.0 141.5 164 158 160 238,8 236.4 234.0 168 164 163 166 159 159 July August September 140.4 141.8 r!44,l 161 156 156 235.0 224,0 233.1 164 161 165 165 r!23 r!60 r!55 r!17 October November December H46.8 r!49,2 P150.7 163 pi 64 pi 59 pl!7 (NA) (NA) p235.2 (NA) r!65 (NA) r!25 r!24 123 r!23 118 (NA) (NA) (NA) 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 58. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 94 JANUARY 1981 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued fll| Japan United States Year and month 320. Index ® (1967 = 100) 320c. Change over 6-month spansl (Ann. rate, percent) 738. Index ® (1967 = 100) CONSUMER PRICES West Germany 738c. Change over 6-month spansl (Ann. rate, percent) 735. Index © (1967 = 100) United Kingdom France 735c. Change over 6-month spansl (Ann. rate, percent) 736. Index © (1967 = 100) 736c. Change over 6-month spansl (Ann. rate, percent) 732. Index ® (1967 = 100) 732c. Change over 6-month spansl (Ann. rate, percent) 1979 January February March 204.7 207.1 209.1 11.1 12.0 12.9 253.9 253.1 255.1 1.8 3.1 4.6 162.9 163.6 164.4 4.4 4.3 4.7 245.5 247.1 249.4 10.4 10.9 332.9 335.6 338.3 11.4 11.4 13.2 April May June 211.5 214.1 216.6 13.2 12.9 13.3 258.6 261.3 261.5 7.3 7.0 5.3 165.3 165.7 166.6 6.0 5.8 5.8 251.8 254.5 256.6 11.9 12.6 11.7 344.1 346.8 352.8 21.5 21.4 22.1 July August September 218.9 221.1 223.4 13.4 13.3 13.8 263.8 261.1 264.4 6.7 6.9 6.9 167.7 167.8 168.3 6.0 6.4 6.1 260.0 262.7 264.9 12.7 12.4 12.8 368.0 370.9 374.6 23.2 23.7 21.5 October November December 225.4 227.5 229.9 14.5 15.3 15.9 267.7 266.7 268.3 6.0 8.9 10.8 168.7 169.3 170.1 4.0 5.4 5.6 268.1 269.8 272.0 14.2 14.7 15.6 378.5 381.8 384.6 15.4 16.8 17.4 January February March 233.2 236.4 239.8 15,7 15.4 14.8 270.8 273.3 275.5 9.9 9.5 9.9 171.0 172.8 173.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 277.2 280.2 283.4 15.0 15.0 14.1 394.1 399.7 405.1 20.4 20.5 20.5 April May June 242.5 244.9 247.6 11.7 10.2 9.3 280.2 282.7 283.5 9.5 8.2 7.2 174,9 175.6 176.5 6.9 5.5 4.7 286.7 289.3 291.1 12.9 12.3 11.6 419.0 422.8 426.8 18.5 15.8 14.1 July August September 247.8 249.4 251.7 9.4 9.7 9.9 284.2 283.7 288.1 5.6 7.3 176.8 177.0 177.0 4.6 5.0 5.2 295.5 298.4 301.0 11.8 12.2 (NA) 430.4 431.3 434.1 10.6 10.4 October November December 253.9 256.2 258.4 9.8 1980 288.5 289.1 (NA) (NA) 177.3 178.3 179.4 304.3 306.4 (NA) 9.9 436.8 440.3 442.7 1981 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. 1 Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. KCII JANUARY 1981 95 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F 1 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Qj STOCK PRICES Q CONSUMER PRICES-Continued Year and month 748. Japan, index of stock prices ® 745. West Germany, index of stock prices ® 746. France, index of stock prices @ 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices ® 747. Italy, index of stock prices ® 743. Canada, index of stock prices ® over 6-month spans ' 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © (Ann. rate, percent) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967-100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967-100) 9.9 108.5 106.9 108.9 416.1 409.9 405.7 135,0 131.9 131.2 160.9 149,9 155,4 211.1 212.2 240.8 52.4 54.8 57.9 138.4 141.1 150.7 Italy Canada 737. Index ® 737c. Change over 6-month spans l 733. Index ® 733c. Change (1967-100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967-100) January February March 305.1 309.7 313.8 14.5 15.6 15.6 211.2 213.2 215.7 April May June 317.8 321.3 323.9 14.9 15.5 17.8 217.2 219.3 220.3 9.5 8.5 8.5 111.0 108.5 110.7 402.9 411.1 402.3 130.6 127.8 121.7 164.5 162.0 171.7 255.7 255.0 241.0 54.1 56.8 58.0 149.5 154.8 168.9 July August September 326.7 330.6 339.2 19.2 19.4 21.7 222.1 222.9 224.9 7.9 8.8 9.5 111.7 116.8 118.1 400.6 408.0 412.5 122.0 124.3 125.7 173.7 188.6 207.4 232.8 233.9 236.3 58.8 61.7 63.0 159.4 178.6 191.7 October November December 345.5 350.3 356.6 25.8 26.1 23.1 226.5 228.7 230,1 10.0 10.4 113.6 112.8 117.2 408.2 403.4 410.8 123.5 118.3 118.8 187.5 189.1 186.8 238.9 215.6 217.1 62.6 58.6 55.4 175.2 189.3 199.5 January February March 367.9 374.3 378.2 23.0 22.6 20.4 231.3 233.3 235.8 10.3 10.6 120.6 125.5 113.9 420.1 425.5 413.0 117.2 123.3 118.1 203.8 207.4 185.4 224.3 239.4 231.6 59.8 61.1 61.1 224.7 256.3 203.2 April May June 384.3 388.2 391.7 18.2 17.4 19.2 237.2 240.0 242.7 10.0 11.0 11.5 112.0 117.1 124.6 417.6 422.9 423.8 116.5 118.8 120.6 189.0 201.1 201.4 228.1 230.3 240.7 61.0 61.5 64.8 212.8 216.4 227.5 July August September 398.4 402.4 410.9 18.7 21.2 22.7 244.5 246.8 249.0 11.7 12.7 12.0 130.4 134.3 137.6 424.9 429.1 437.6 121.2 121.7 120.0 198.9 199.9 203.0 255.9 256.7 262.6 66.0 74.4 82.7 240.0 232.3 233.5 October November December 417.9 426.7 432.2 141,7 147.6 145.2 447.5 447.8 rp443.4 120.6 117,2 rpl!5.8 218.1 rp221.2 rp208.6 267.4 277,5 rp271.1 93.5 99.2 223.3 p220.6 rp220.3 p!45,0 p453.2 P115.6 p!87.3 p251,l 1979 10.9 10.1 9.9 1980 9.9 251.2 254.3 255.8 p94.5 1981 January February March p218.6 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. 1 Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. 96 JANUARY 1981 APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability Part I. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes Monthly series Period covered 1 Cl T/c C T/C for MCD span MCD Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C MCD 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 1 5 6 7 Average workweek of production workers mfg Average weekly initial claims State unemployment insurance New orders durable goods industries current dollars . . . New orders durable goods industries 1972 dollars 9 Construction contracts commercial and industrial 10. 12 13. 14 19. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment current dollars Index of net business formation Number of new business incorporations Current liabilities of business failures (u) Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (u) Jan.53-Dec.79 do do do do do 0.47 4.69 3.13 3.09 2.30 8.93 0.42 4.07 2.75 2.74 1.94 8.64 0.16 2.07 1.30 1.19 1.10 1.55 2.57 1.96 2.11 2.29 1.77 5.59 3 3 3 3 3 6 0.92 .69 .66 .73 .64 n 2.23 1.97 1.90 1.79 1.98 1.61 1.50 1.55 1.52 1.50 1.64 1.54 8.97 10.42 10.09 7.88 9.79 9.50 3.78 3.96 4.01 3.96 4.22 3.12 do do do Jan.53-Aug.79 Jan.53-Dec.79 5.66 5.29 1.56 3.39 1.51 2.31 4 2 3 6 2 .85 .88 .75 (M .65 1.67 2.17 1.86 1.52 2.34 1.49 1.66 1.46 1.49 1.63 10.77 11.96 11.14 9.11 7.88 3.33 3.39 3.49 2.60 3.66 4 1 3 4 3 2 .97 .79 .95 .80 .93 .99 1.64 2.88 1.76 1.74 1.85 1.97 1.49 1.71 1.58 1.52 1.57 1.49 9.50 7.69 14.68 11.54 11.14 11.96 3.27 2.88 3.21 3.33 3.57 3.10 2 1 1 2 1 1 .61 .68 .45 .52 .81 .63 2.04 3.80 5.30 2.67 3.47 4.09 1.43 1.53 1.46 1.53 1.48 1.61 8.50 12.92 21.53 20.19 10.42 14.04 3.13 3.80 5.30 4.81 3.47 4.09 2 1 1 1 2 1 .56 .66 .76 .80 .59 .94 2.76 3.63 3.63 3.20 2.41 2.81 1.55 1.66 1.71 1.59 1.46 1.56 17.00 15.38 19.00 16.15 17.94 12.92 4.54 3.63 3.63 3.20 4.41 2.81 2 2 2 1 1 2 .66 .98 .54 .52 .22 .61 2.20 2.03 2.76 4.36 19.00 1.96 1.52 1.55 1.54 1.47 1.66 1.45 10.77 13.46 7.88 17.00 35.89 15.38 3.58 3.25 4.29 4.36 19.00 3.35 1 1 1 1 1 2 .46 .29 .42 .77 .79 .60 5.05 9.23 7.18 3.85 3.02 2.83 1.53 1.50 1.64 1.64 1.40 1.61 23.07 35.89 19.00 9.50 14.04 8.97 5.05 9.23 7.18 3.85 3.02 4.35 1 1 2 1 1 1 .71 .33 .97 .34 .94 .40 3.33 6.33 2.17 5.87 2.99 5.21 1.49 1.58 1.56 1.64 1.45 1.52 15.38 17.00 12.92 14.68 10.09 16.15 3.33 6.33 3.54 5.87 2.99 5.21 .61 .54 .43 1 2 2 1 1 1 .56 .90 .69 .61 .54 .43 4.04 2.56 2.17 3.71 4.18 5.98 1.59 1.75 1.45 1.77 1.70 1.96 12.42 8.97 10.42 7.51 9.20 10.77 4.04 3.62 3.46 3.71 4.18 5.98 24. 27. 28. 29. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars New private housing units started, total New building permits, private housing do do do do do do 37 40 41 42 46 47 Number of persons unemployed Employees in goods-producing industries Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities Index of help-wanted advertising Index of industrial production total do do do do do do 48 51 52 53 54 56. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments Personal income less transfer payments 1972 dollars Personal income 1972 dollars Wages and salaries in mining mfg and construction 1972 dollars Sales of retail stores, current dollars Mfg and trade sales current dollars do do do do do do 57 59 62 65. 66. 69. Mfg and trade sales 1972 dollars . ... Sales of retail stores 1972 dollars Labor cost per unit of output mfg Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods Consumer installment debt Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures . . . do do do do do. do 70 71 72 73 74 75 Mfg. and trade inventories 1972 dollars Mfg and trade inventories current dollars Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . . . Industrial production durable manufactures Industrial production nondurable manufactures Industrial production consumer goods do. do do do do do 20 Contracts and orders plant and equipment 1972 dollars 76. 78. 91. 96. 105. 106. Industrial production, business equipment Materials and supplies on hand and on order Average duration of unemployment Unfilled orders, durable goods industries Money supply (M1-B), 1972 dollars Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars 910. 913. 914 915. 916. 917. Composite index Composite index Composite index Composite index Composite index Composite index of of of of of of . ... . . 2.18 27.06 2.61 1.84 5.61 1.64 5.04 5.04 5.59 4.62 5.29 3.23 .49 .94 2.18 1.65 12.44 3.76 4.62 4.64 5.08 4.00 1.41 1.22 1.59 1.45 1.88 2.05 2.35 1.87 1.26 .97 .26 .12 .22 1.60 .38 .27 .22 1.98 .85 .44 .69 .42 .45 .46 .68 .98 .31 .25 .27 .41 .72 .69 .29 .37 .36 .51 .64 .74 .69 .77 .41 .31 .19 .53 .45 .40 .60 .86 1.04 .93 .89 .61 .69 .93 1.72 .40 .65 .96 1.26 .71 .82 1.07 1.13 3.43 1.35 1.33 .17 .18 .38 .73 .42 .55 .61 .35 2.87 1.05 .37 .63 .90 .94 .53 .53 .86 1.07 1.55 1.24 1.11 .79 2.91 3.19 2.71 1.95 .68 .45 1.01 .81 .63 1.08 .66 .76 .80 1.11 .94 1.30 1.70 1.00 .52 .22 1.27 .46 .29 .42 .77 .79 1.03 .71 .33 1.86 .35 .42 .42 .22 .15 .83 .67 .59 .63 .74 .77 .39 .52 .47 .30 .33 .29 .70 .35 .34 .49 .62 .68 do do .71 .79 .37 .37 .57 .69 .64 .54 1 1 .64 .54 3.80 3.76 1.66 1.65 15.38 15.38 3.80 3.76 do do do do do do .67 .36 .52 .49 .25 .11 .27 .28 .40 .33 .66 .76 1 1 1 1 2 1 .40 .33 .66 .76 .98 .49 8.28 8.97 3.44 3.11 2.15 5.13 1.62 1.54 1.63 1.51 1.66 1.52 46.14 21.53 8.07 9.50 8.97 14.04 8.28 8.97 3.44 3.11 3.50 5.13 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 .35 .75 .33 .28 .58 .88 .63 6.59 2.78 6.59 191.00 3.08 2.17 2.54 1.51 1.53 1.64 1.52 1.52 1.53 1.50 21.53 9.50 14.04 191.00 15.92 26.92 11.54 6.59 2.78 6.59 191.00 4.75 3.46 3.98 do do do do Jan.53-Nov.79 Jan.53-Dec.79 920 Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators 930 Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 2.47 2.59 . .74 27.56 .47 .30 .32 do do do do do do 12 leading indicators marginal employment adjustments capital investment commitments inventory investment and purchasing profitability money and financial flows .90 .24 .37 .34 .94 .40 .56 1.50 1.41 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 223. 320. 322 330 331 332 Personal income, current dollars Consumer price index, all items (u) Consumer price index food Producer price index all commodities © Producer price index crude materials Producer price index intermediate materials 333. 334 335 340. 341. 441. 442 Producer price index, capital equipment Producer price index finished consumer goods Producer price index industrial commodities ^) Average hourly earnings of production workers Real average hourly earnings of production workers Total civilian labor force Total civilian employment . . do do do Jan.64-Dec.79 do Jan.53-Dec.79 do .43 .19 .62 .34 .42 .37 .63 .38 .38 .47 .38 .53 .25 .31 .33 .12 .26 .12 .15 .19 .25 .25 .36 .35 .36 .53 .17 .16 .20 1.30 1.02 1.62 .49 .35 .75 .33 .28 1.11 1.55 1.22 97 A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued Part I. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes—Continued Monthly series Period covered Cl T C T/c MCD T/C for MCD span Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C MCD II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Continued 444 445 446 447 448 Number unemployed males 20 years and over Number unemployed females 20 years and over Number unemployed both sexes 16- 19 years of age Number unemployed full-time workers Number employed part-time for economic reasons Jan.53-Dec.79 do do Jan.63-Dec.79 May 55- Dec. 79 4.04 4.33 5.40 2.75 3.99 2.87 3.88 5.09 2.21 3.58 2.39 1.74 1.47 1.48 1.43 1.20 2.23 3.47 1.49 2.50 2 3 4 2 3 517. 525. 543. 548. 557. Defense Department gross obligations incurred Defense Department military prime contract awards Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding Manufacturers' new orders, defense products Output of defense and space equipment Jan.53-Dec.79 Jan.53-Nov.79 Jun.53-Dec.79 Feb.68-Dec.79 Jan.53-0ec.79 8.88 8.77 18.16 18.03 1.08 1.89 1.10 1.45 8.09 9.53 1.19 6 6 2 6 1 559 561. 570. 577 578. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products Employment in defense products industries . . Defense Department personnel military (§) Defense Department personnel, civilian © Jan.68-Dec.79 do Jan.58-Dec.79 Jan.53-Dec.79 do 1.70 1.52 580 588 602 604 606. 612 Defense Department net outlays . . . Manufacturers' shipments defense products Exports excluding military aid shipments Exports of agricultural products Exports of nonelectrical machinery General imports total do Jan.68-Dec.79 Jan.53-Dec.79 Jan.65-Dec.79 do Jan.53-Dec.79 4.22 3.99 5.45 9.17 5.76 4.35 4.12 3.84 5.11 8.37 5.31 3.99 1.01 1.16 2.48 1.43 1.31 614. 616. 721. 722 723 725. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Imports of automobiles and parts OECO European countries, industrial production United Kingdom industrial production Canada industrial production West Germany, industrial production Jan.65-Dec.79 do Jan.56-Dec.79 Jan.53-Dec.79 do do 9.25 8.38 9.43 2.76 2.35 726. 727. 728. 732. 733. 735. France, industrial production Italy, industrial production Japan, industrial production United Kingdom, consumer prices (u) Canada consumer prices (g) West Germany, consumer prices (\3) 736. 737 738. 742. 743 745 France consumer prices (§) Italy consumer prices (u) Japan consumer prices (u) United Kingdom stock prices (§) Canada stock prices (u) West Germany stock prices (g) 1.78 1.31 23.04 .95 22.87 .55 .72 .56 .53 10.28 .84 do do do do do do . . 746. France, stock prices © 747. Italy, stock prices (u) 748. Japan, stock prices @ do. .. . do do do ... do. . . . . . . do . do do. .. . do ... . 1.16 .97 .93 1.11 .33 .24 .32 .85 1.12 .81 1.27 1.24 1.58 1.89 1.37 1.58 1.69 .66 .41 .34 .83 .34 .19 .19 .92 .59 .86 .63 .22 .64 .72 1.32 15.77 .76 .70 0.61 2.29 1.74 1.66 1.83 1.78 1.49 1.44 1.47 1.48 1.57 ( ) (M .65 (l) .76 1.52 1.45 2.77 1.53 3.40 1.50 1.41 1.55 1.53 1.51 11.54 10.73 1 2 1 1 1 .70 .67 .56 .49 .74 3.25 2.31 4.87 3.63 3.94 1.64 1.57 1.59 1.75 1.80 11.00 .77 .84 .78 .84 x 7.69 9.50 7.69 10.15 7.56 9.64 8.35 9.23 3.79 3.34 2.78 3.31 3.15 2.37 2.11 4.17 2.11 3.40 3.25 4.18 4.87 3.63 3.94 .96 .59 .49 .43 1.16 .75 5.47 3.81 4.40 3.38 3.72 3.04 6 4 5 5 4 4 (M .90 .95 .87 .99 .75 .48 .43 .52 .57 3.04 4.02 1.79 2.62 1.58 2.17 3 4 2 3 2 3 .80 .93 .98 .99 .80 .66 1.88 1.69 3.99 2.94 2.18 2.88 1.48 1.63 1.66 1.58 1.51 1.60 .61 .77 2.58 2.21 3 3 1 1 1 1 .96 .81 .78 .58 .52 .63 3.20 1.92 3.17 6.59 5.38 6.59 1.54 1.59 1.45 1.55 1.61 1.66 14.68 14.04 19.00 17.00 16.15 8.97 5.26 4.52 3.17 6.59 5.38 6.59 .59 .40 .64 .65 .99 .67 8.73 17.94 19.00 10.73 11.14 2.54 2.67 2.21 2.94 1.69 1.66 1.56 1.69 1.66 1.72 9.79 6.73 9.50 6.59 3.88 3.66 3.43 3.88 .70 .79 .64 2.08 2.50 2.81 1.78 1.92 1.64 7.69 8.73 6.87 3.96 4.52 3.93 1.07 .58 .36 .29 .56 .49 .74 .78 .58 .52 .63 3.69 3.43 3.31 2.59 2.82 2.32 2.40 1.75 2.11 1.16 1.08 1.61 1.10 2 1 2 2 2 2 4.28 3.94 3.43 3.56 3.18 2.27 1.95 1.89 2.10 1.83 1.69 1.08 3 3 2 .60 .56 .55 1.05 .40 .61 .54 .89 .85 .67 .84 11.14 1.55 1.47 1.56 1.54 1.53 1.65 7.94 14.61 10.77 10.42 7.88 11.92 10.09 7.78 11.93 10.42 9.42 13.77 16.88 8.07 19.00 17.00 3.06 3.04 3.71 3.57 2.59 3.60 2.64 2.75 5.84 5.44 3.83 7.47 ©Measures are based on unadjusted data. 'Not shown when MCD is 6. Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part I The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted horn Journal of Business, October 1957). "I/C " is a measure of relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally^ adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", noT/C ratio is shown for the MCD period. "Cl" is the average month-to-month percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series (i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal, trading-day, and holiday variations). "Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. "C" series. is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted "T" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6" A comparison of these ADR measures with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals, the expected ADR of a random series is 1.5, and the actual ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the expected ADR is 2. For example, in a series with ADR measures of 1.56 for Cl, 1.45 for I, 8.71 for C, and 3.15 for MCD, the 1.56 for Cl indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series reverse sign, on average, about as often as expected in a random series. The 1.45 for I and 8.71 for C suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. The 3.15 for MCD indicates that the MCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted data reverses direction, on average, about every 3 months. Thus, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect underlying short-term trend movements while month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not. A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued Part II. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes Unit of measure Monthly series Period covered 1 Cl C I/C MCD Average duration of run (ADR) T/c for MCD span C Cl MCD ' 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 2. 3. 4. 21. Accession rate, mfg Layoff rate, mfg Quit rate mfg Average weekly overtime, production workers mfg 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries 31. Change in book value, mfg. and trade inventories ... Per 100 employees . . do . . do Annual rate, billion dollars do 32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries ( § ) . . . 33 Net change in mortgage debt 36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order 1972 dollars (smoothed) 38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg 39. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans 43. Unemployment rate, total 44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over . . . Percent Annual rate, billion dollars do 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate . . 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment 77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales, mfg. and trade 85. Change in money supply (M1-B) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population . 92. Change in sensitive prices (smoothed) . . do Jan.53-Dec.79 do do Hours .... Jan.56-Dec.79 Billion dollars . . Jan.53-Dec.79 Billion dollars Percent do do Ratio . . do Percent .do . . do .14 .07 .12 .06 .06 .04 1.99 2.19 1.44 3 3 2 .10 .09 .04 2.14 .62 .19 0.13 .67 0.12 0.06 .94 6.38 6.32 do Jan.55-Dec.79 3.53 2.62 2.54 2.38 2.19 Jan.53-Dec.79 2.37 1.07 1.91 .83 2.67 2.56 3.85 1.73 1.58 1.51 11.14 4.46 4.86 7.32 3 .75 3.38 1.66 11.48 5.70 3.28 4 .89 1.68 1.57 7.34 3.20 6.74 6 1 I ) 1.58 1.55 11.14 2.92 1.16 2.85 2 3 .67 .93 2.91 1.65 1.52 1.40 6.73 9.34 4.24 3.34 1 .56 3.51 2.26 5.87 3.51 4 .82 1.59 1.48 7.85 3.36 6 2 2 1 C ) .60 .53 1.90 2.69 5.38 1.51 1.50 1.50 9.83 7.51 7.02 2.84 4.35 7.32 1 .69 4.89 1.77 7.69 5.05 .56 Feb.53-Dec.79 .45 .42 .13 Jan.75-Dec.79 Jan.53-Dec.79 do .08 .16 .07 .08 .12 .05 .01 .10 .05 .15 .08 .12 .69 .92 do 8.07 7.88 .81 .72 3.32 5.64 1.22 1.08 0.81 1 .92 2.65 1.50 10.09 2.65 .99 (M 2.47 13.13 2 6 1.55 1.59 1.47 9.23 9.79 4.02 2.41 .07 .14 1.93 1.78 3 4 .66 .73 1.85 2.78 1.64 2.38 10.09 5.98 4.28 4.44 121.05 70.33 1.72 2 .96 1.92 1.52 8.50 3.07 122.01 92.83 69.66 1.33 2 .75 2.14 1.52 7.34 3.01 .06 .19 .05 .01 .03 .19 .03 .00 .04 .04 .04 .00 1 6 1 2 .76 (x) .75 .58 3.67 1.71 4.04 2.86 1.60 1.52 2.29 1.58 13.46 3.67 3.53 4.04 4.18 1 6 4 2 3 3 .64 (l) .78 .61 .72 .72 12.42 2.39 1.54 1.56 1.73 1.91 1.77 8.28 7.02 9.79 6.33 7.88 9.23 12.42 1.65 1.82 2.65 2.74 2.41 3 1 1 1 .73 .65 .95 .86 2.45 6.46 2.87 2.99 1.77 1.85 1.59 1.58 9.23 7.18 8.94 8.73 4.28 6.46 2.87 2.99 do .03 .02 .02 do do .01 .34 .01 .33 .01 .03 do do .16 .31 .14 .24 do 146.90 do . . . . . . . . 1.86 93 Free reserves (§) 94. Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve (u) 95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income 102 Change in money supply (M2) 104 Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2) . Million dollars 109. 112. 113. 114. 115. 1 16. Average prime rate charged by banks (§) . . . . Change in bank loans to businesses Change in consumer installment debt Treasury bill rate <u) Treasury bond yields © Corporate bond yields (u) . . Percent Annual rate, billion dollars . . . do Percent .do . . do . . ..do . . ..do .23 .09 .15 .16 .07 .12 .63 .15 .05 .08 117. 118 119 940. Municipal bond yields (u) . . Mortgage yields secondary market (u) Federal funds rate © Ratio, coincident index to lagging index . . do .do . . .do Index: 1967=100 . do do . . . . Aug.54-Dec.79 Jan.53-Dec.79 .12 .08 .29 .92 .10 .04 .19 .59 .06 .07 .20 .68 1.66 Percent . . . do . . do .15 .20 .14 .19 .05 .07 2.84 2.64 4 4 .78 .67 2.15 2.24 1.59 1.57 7.18 9.50 4.05 4.85 .69 .63 .20 3.19 4 .86 1.85 1.58 7.02 3.33 .... do Percent .do. do do Ratio do do do do do do do .14 5.06 2.05 .08 4.91 1.92 .13 1.02 .76 4.50 .75 1.06 .64 4.82 3.04 1.04 1.48 1.61 .65 .95 .86 6.73 5.21 8.73 3.21 3.44 3.88 4.65 4.06 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 451. Participation rate, males 20 years and over . . . 452. Participation rate, females 20 years and over . . 453. Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years of age . . . do do do ©Measures are based on unadjusted data. 1 Not shown when MCD is 6. Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part II These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for series with zero or negative data and for other series where it seems appropriate, such as series expressed in percent. — Thus, "Cl" is the average month-to-month change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series, All other measures have the same meaning as in part I. 99 A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability Part I. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes Quarterly series Period covered Cl 1 C T/c QCD Average duration of run (ADR) I/C for QCD span Cl 1 C QCD 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 8.78 5.42 5.12 .59 3.92 3.59 1.58 4.71 2.86 2.86 .33 1.99 2.01 .73 6.51 4.10 3.74 .42 3.09 2.64 1.28 0.72 .70 .76 .77 .64 .76 .57 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.72 .70 .76 .77 .64 .76 .57 2.74 3.06 2.49 2.49 2.97 2.28 2.89 1.23 1.27 1.27 1.23 1.22 1.27 1.32 3.96 5.35 4.86 4.65 6.69 4.46 5.63 2.74 3.06 2.49 2.49 2.97 2.28 2.89 1.12 6.12 2.83 1.15 1.20 7.06 .35 3.96 .96 .36 .40 3.67 1.01 4.14 2.57 1.07 1.12 5.16 .35 .96 .37 .34 .35 .71 1 1 1 1 1 1 .35 .96 .37 .34 .35 .71 5.63 2.61 4.28 3.96 4.28 2.74 1.35 1.20 1.20 1.22 1.26 1.32 8.23 3.82 7.13 7.13 7.13 4.28 5.63 2.61 4.28 3.96 4.28 2.74 6.99 2.12 2.18 2.77 3.89 5.04 10.17 3.57 .75 1.23 1.22 1.33 .95 5.78 5.19 1.90 1.74 2.37 3.60 4.86 7.32 .69 .40 .71 .52 .37 .19 .79 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .69 .40 .71 .52 .37 .19 .79 2.74 2.97 3.06 3.06 3.57 4.12 2.10 1.32 1.29 1.32 1.23 1.34 1.24 1.20 4.65 6.29 6.29 5.94 7.13 6.69 3.96 2.74 2.97 3.06 3.06 3.57 4.12 2.10 1.91 .96 .96 1.96 1.82 1.05 .36 .32 .35 .41 .32 .35 1.87 .90 .82 1.88 1.79 .95 .19 .36 .42 .22 .18 .37 1 1 1 1 1 1 .19 .36 .42 .22 .18 .37 11.89 4.65 3.69 8.23 35.67 5.63 1.29 1.23 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.39 15.29 9.73 7.64 15.29 107.00 9.73 11.89 4.65 3.69 8.23 35.67 5.63 .86 1.84 1.01 3.18 2.79 1.62 .35 .34 .33 1.56 1.56 .37 .72 1.81 .94 2.46 2.16 1.58 .49 .19 .35 .64 .72 .24 1 1 1 1 1 1 .49 .19 .35 .64 .72 .24 4.46 21.40 6.29 3.34 2.97 17.83 1.45 1.32 1.26 1.22 1.18 1.26 7.64 107.00 9.73 4.86 4.86 53.50 4.46 21.40 6.29 3.34 2.97 17.83 2.11 .89 1.06 4.52 3.99 2.58 .30 .39 .27 2.16 2.01 .73 2.09 .75 1.03 3.64 3.14 2.41 .14 .52 .26 .59 .64 .30 1 1 1 1 1 1 .14 .52 .26 .59 .64 .30 107.00 4.28 21.40 3.34 2.67 4.65 1.23 1.32 1.32 1.37 1.30 1.34 107.00 10.70 35.67 5.35 5.94 6.29 107.00 4.28 21.40 3.34 2.67 4.65 do do do 2.10 4.26 4.10 3.39 3.22 2.02 .69 2.20 1.95 2.16 1.96 .56 1.92 3.22 3.24 2.24 2.23 1.93 .36 .68 .60 .96 .87 .29 1 1 1 1 1 1 .36 .68 .60 .96 .87 .29 4.12 2.89 3.45 2.18 2.61 7.13 1.34 1.30 1.35 1.27 1.29 1.29 5.10 5.10 6.29 4.28 5.63 21.40 4.12 2.89 3.45 2.18 2.61 7.13 do do... . do. . . do do do... . 1.06 2.23 1.78 2.46 1.24 1.96 .49 1.06 .93 .38 .42 .25 .90 1.89 1.40 2.44 1.16 1.93 .55 .56 .67 .16 .36 .13 1 1 1 1 1 1 .55 .56 .67 .16 .36 .13 2.89 3.06 2.89 26.75 6.69 15.29 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.24 1.29 1.35 4.65 4.65 4.28 35.67 15.29 15.29 2.89 3.06 2.89 26.75 6.69 15.29 2.01 2.07 5.11 3.63 4.64 9.26 1.00 1.03 2.67 .90 2.18 6.58 1.66 1.41 3.99 3.57 3.59 5.68 .60 .73 .67 .25 .61 1.16 1 1 1 1 1 2 .60 .73 .67 .25 .61 .42 3.15 4.65 2.89 35.67 2.67 1.98 1.37 1.43 1.30 1.29 1.37 1.22 5.35 7.13 4.86 107.00 5.10 3.82 3.15 4.65 2.89 35.67 2.67 2.94 IQ 53-IVQ 79 11 16 18. 26 34. 35 49. New capital appropriations mfg Corporate profits after taxes current dollars Corporate profits after taxes 1972 dollars Ratio price to unit labor cost nonfarm business Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars Net cash flow corporate 1972 dollars Value of goods output, 1972 dollars 50. 55. 61. 63. 68 79 GIMP, 1972 dollars PCE, automobiles Business expenditures new plant and equipment Unit labor cost private business sector Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj current dollars do 80. 86 87 88. 89 97. 110. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj, 1972 dollars Nonresidential fixed investment total 1972 dollars Nonresidential fixed investment structures 1972 dollars Nonresidential fixed investment, producers' durable equipment, 1972 dollars Residential fixed investment total 1972 dollars . . Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg Total private borrowing do 200 213 217 220 224 225 GIMP current dollars Final sales 1972 dollars Per capita GIMP 1972 dollars National income current dollars Disposable personal income current dollars Disposable personal income 1972 dollars 227 230 231 232 233 236 Per capita disposable personal income 1972 dollars PCE total current dollars PCE total 1972 dollars PCE durable goods current dollars . . PCE durable goods 1972 dollars PCE nondurable goods current dollars 237 238 239 240 241 242. PCE services current dollars PCE nondurable goods 1972 dollars PCE services 1972 dollars Gross private domestic investment current dollars Gross private domestic investment 1972 dollars Fixed investment, total, current dollars 243 252 253 256 257 260 Fixed investment total 1972 dollars Exports of poods and services current dollars Imports of goods and services current dollars Exports of goods and services 1972 dollars . . Imports of goods and services 1972 dollars Government purchases of goods and services current dollars 261. 262 263 266. 267. 280 Government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars Federal Government purchases of goods and services current dollars Federal Government purchases of goods and services 1972 dollars State and local government purchases of goods and services, current dollars . State and local government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars . . Compensation of employees . . 282. 284. 286. 288 290 292. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Rental income of persons, with CCAdj Corporate profits, with IVA and CCAdj Net interest Gross saving Personal saving do do .. . .do do do do do do do do do do. do do do do. . . do. II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 100 do do do do . . do do do . . . do do . . . do do. . . do do . . do do . . do . do do do. . do do . . . .do do do do do do. A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued Part I. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes—Continued Quarterly series Period covered 1 Cl C 7/c QCD I/C for QCD span Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 2.97 1.26 1.26 1.34 1.32 1.41 1.29 1.27 C QCD II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Continued 295. 310. 311. 345 346 358 370. Business saving Implicit price deflator GNP Fixed weighted price index gross business product . Average hourly compensation nonfarm business sector Real average hourly compensation nonfarm business sector Output per hour nonfarm business sector Output per hour, private business sector IQ 53-IVQ 79 501. 502 511. 512 564. 618. Federal Government receipts . . . . Federal Government expenditures State and local government receipts State and local government expenditures Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense . . Merchandise exports, excluding military grants . . . .do . . do . do . . do. . . do 620. 651. 652. 668. 669. Merchandise imports, excluding military Income on U.S. investments abroad Income on foreign investments in the U.S Exports of goods and services, excluding military grants Imports of goods and services, total CCAdj IVA PCE do .do do do do do ... .98 1.46 .63 .79 .83 IQ 60-IVQ 79 do . . .do do do. do 2.95 1.02 .. 1.48 .16 .16 .19 .24 .36 .41 2.35 .99 .95 1.44 .58 .66 .71 2.93 2.40 2.54 2.42 2.08 5.29 1.15 3.02 2.58 2.16 2.47 2.40 1.80 3.54 5.36 6.57 6.33 4.39 4.39 2.54 3.92 2.78 2.22 1.88 4.27 5.18 5.62 3.35 3.76 .86 .64 .38 .84 .16 .17 .13 .42 .56 .57 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .45 .40 .26 .16 .47 .85 1 1 1 1 1 1 .45 .40 .26 .16 .47 .85 15.29 35.67 .60 .76 .50 .66 .50 1 1 1 1 1 .60 .76 .50 .66 .50 4.16 2.55 3.29 2.93 4.16 0.63 0.63 .16 .17 .13 .42 .56 .57 15.29 21.40 107.00 7.64 3.06 3.82 4.65 4.65 3.24 2.14 1.43 .35 .29 .27 .32 .30 1.25 1.18 1.20 1.34 1.25 5.94 107.00 35.67 107.00 10.70 5.63 5.94 7.64 9.73 107.00 35.67 2.97 15.29 21.40 107.00 7.64 3.06 3.82 4.65 4.65 15.29 35.67 4.46 4.16 3.24 2.14 7.90 6.08 5.64 5.27 4.16 2.55 3.29 2.93 4.16 13.17 Capital consumption adjustment. Inventory valuation adjustment. Personal consumption expenditures. Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part I The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957). "I/C" is a measure of relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of the period of QCD. When QCD is "4," noT/E ratio is shown for the QCD period. "Cl" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the unadjusted series. "Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. "C " is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter spans (1st quartered quarter, 2d quartered quarter, etc.), 2-quarter spans (1st quartered quarter, 2d quarter-4th quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with a QCD greater than "3" are shown as "4." A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, in a series with ADR measures of 1.63 for Cl, 1.39 for I, 3.51 for C, and 3.27 for QCD, the 1.63 for Cl indicates that 1-quarter changes in the seasonally adjusted series reverse sign, on average, about as often as expected in a random series. The 1.39 for I and 3.51 for C suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. The 3.27 for QCD indicates that the QCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted series reverses direction, on average, about every 3 quarters. Thus, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD moving average usually reflect underlying short-term trend movements of the series, while quarter-to-quarter changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not. 101 A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued Part II. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes Quarterly series Unit of measure T Cl Period covered C T/c QCD I/C for QCD span Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C QCD 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 1 5. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales mfg . . 22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to corporate domestic income 30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars . . 58. Index of consumer sentiment (§) 64. Compensation of employees as percent of national income 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans ( § ) . . . 81. Ratio, profits (after taxes) with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income . . . . 82 Rate of capacity utilization mfg. (FRB) .. 83 Rate of capacity utilization mfg (BEA) 84 Rate of capacity utilization materials 107 Ratio GNP to money supply M1-B Cents IQ 53-IVQ 79 0.24 Percent Annual rate, billion dollars Index: IQ 1966=100 . . . .do do IQ 62-IVQ 77 4.04 3.49 Percent IQ 53-IVQ 79 . ..do do do do do do Ratio 0.14 .42 do do IQ 66-IVQ 79 IQ 53-IVQ 79 do .27 2.83 2.26 .39 .34 .23 .15 .50 .04 .28 .63 .63 .95 .02 .37 .23 1.50 1.07 2.10 0.16 0.86 1 0.86 2.52 1.32 3.42 2.52 .98 1 2 1 .30 .29 .77 .53 1 1 .77 .53 2.49 2.49 1.23 1.43 4.46 4.28 2.49 2.49 .39 .71 .51 .74 .60 .47 1 1 1 1 1 .71 .51 .74 .60 .47 2.61 4.12 2.75 2.82 3.69 1.24 1.34 1.38 1.37 1.32 4.65 5.10 2.75 3.82 6.29 2.61 4.12 2.75 2.82 3.69 .91 .30 2.45 2.31 1.24 .85 1.58 .04 .89 1.15 .89 .47 .98 2.82 1.73 1.80 1.27 1.29 1.19 4.12 3.24 4.20 2.82 2.59 1.80 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 235 PCE as percent of GNP 245. Change in business inventories, current dollars 247. Change in business inventories as percent of GNP . 248. Nonresidential fixed investment as percent of GNP 249. Residential fixed investment as percent of GNP 250. Net exports of goods and services, current dollars 251. Net exports as percent of GNP 255. Net exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as percent of GNP 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services as percent of GNP 283. Proprietors' income, with IVA and CCAdj, as percent of national income . . . . 285. Rental income of persons, with CCAdj, as percent of national income 287. Corporate profits, with IVA and CCAdj, as percent of national income 289. Net interest as percent of national income . . . 293 Personal saving rate 298 Government surplus or deficit total 348. Wage and benefit decisions, first year © . . . . 349. Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract 61) 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit 510. State and local government surplus or deficit 565. National defense purchases as percent of GNP 622. Merchandise trade balance 667. Balance on goods and services © CCAdj IVA PCE Percent do .25 Annual rate, billion dollars do Percent do .46 .32 .28 do do .15 .08 .12 do do .16 .14 Annual rate, billion dollars do Percent do Annual rate, billion dollars do Percent do .22 do do .12 do do .17 3.19 4.22 .07 1.33 2.13 .19 .12 .97 1.59 2.51 1.54 .15 3.34 2.23 2 .50 1.67 1.29 3.45 2.59 1.16 2 .48 1.91 1.29 2.89 2.59 .66 1 .66 3.34 1.29 4.86 3.34 .48 1 .48 3.57 1.24 5.63 3.57 .86 1 .86 2.18 1.26 4.86 2.18 .81 1 .81 2.55 1.20 4.46 2.55 .83 2.18 1.29 5.35 2.18 2.89 1.29 3.96 2.89 .68 1 .68 .06 .10 .59 1 .59 3.82 1.37 5.10 3.82 .09 .14 .69 1 .69 3.24 1.41 4.28 3.24 2 .46 5.94 1.35 3.69 5.89 1 1 2 1 2 .75 .59 .43 .71 .63 3.06 5.63 1.98 2.61 1.52 1.27 1.29 1.22 1.27 1.27 4.65 4.86 3.57 4.28 2.94 3.06 5.63 2.79 2.61 2.71 2 1 .75 .85 1.81 2.49 1.24 1.26 2.76 3.69 2.30 2.49 2 .46 2.38 1.30 4.28 3.66 1 1 1 .49 .92 .92 5.10 2.08 1.72 1.35 1.32 1.27 5.94 3.95 3.95 5.10 2.08 1.72 do .07 .06 .05 .45 .08 .54 .25 .04 .40 .33 .07 .33 4.77 2.03 2.67 1.55 do Annual rate, billion dollars do IQ 53-IVQ 79 1.09 4.97 3.02 . . . do 1.41 .91 .17 642.82 734.35 1.19 .83 do do do do IQ 68-IVQ 79 do ... IQ 60-IVQ 79 do 2.23 .18 .12 do do do Annual rate, billion dollars Annual rate, percent . . . . do .91 1 1.17 do Percent Million dollars do 1 1.27 3.74 1.09 .54 3.56 .96 .86 .08 437.94 479.99 .16 474.35 524.40 1.11 .75 .59 1.20 .71 1.42 1.68 .85 1.11 .49 .92 .92 Measures are based on unadjusted data. Capital consumption adjustment. Inventory valuation adjustment. Personal consumption expenditures. Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part II These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for series with zero or negative data and for other series where it seems appropriate, such as series expressed in percent. _ Thus, "Cl" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series, "T" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series, All other measures have the same meaning as in part I. 102 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Quarterly Monthly Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Sept. Aug. Oct. Nov. Dec. «Q 910. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS 1 (1967=100) 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954. .. 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974. .. 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1956. 1957... 1958... 1959... I960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966. .. 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1950. .. 1951... 1952... 1953. . . 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960. .. 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967. .. 1968. .. 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972. .. 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... IV Q Annual AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 53.8 49.8 55.1 59.7 58.6 62.6 57.5 67.6 68.3 67.2 62.5 74.5 71.8 71.2 79.9 82.4 54.1 49.3 55.9 59.4 59.0 62.9 57.5 68.2 68.6 67.0 62.8 75.6 70.4 72.6 80.1 82.9 54.5 49.0 57.3 58.6 58.3 62.7 58.1 68.4 68.9 66.5 63.2 75.7 70.5 74.4 79.7 83.6 54.1 48.9 58.5 58.4 58.2 62.1 59.2 68.6 67.3 66.4 64.5 75.7 70.5 75.1 78.5 84.5 54.5 48.9 59.2 57.6 59.3 61.1 60.0 68.8 67.0 66.8 66.3 75.1 70.3 76.1 77.7 84.2 54.0 49.8 60.9 57.2 58.5 61.0 60.7 69.7 67.3 66.9 67.3 74.9 70.9 76.2 78.5 83.8 53.4 51.1 61.6 56.9 60.0 59.8 60.9 70.0 67.5 66.4 68.9 74.4 71.1 77.1 79.0 84.0 52.9 52.7 60.0 57.4 61.4 58.1 61.7 70.5 67.6 65.4 70.3 74.0 71.5 76.2 79.7 85.0 52.6 52.8 59.8 57.4 61.1 57.4 63.3 70.1 68.1 64.1 71.1 72.6 71.3 77.6 79.3 85.5 51.6 53.1 59.2 57.2 61.3 56.6 64.7 70.2 68.1 62.9 72.6 72.2 70,9 78.6 80.1 85.8 50.9 53.6 59.3 57.7 61.8 56.7 65.2 69.5 67.9 62.4 72.3 73.1 70.1 78.8 80.5 86.1 54.3 49.7 55.1 59.8 58.6 62.7 57.3 67.4 68.6 67.2 62.6 74.6 71.8 71.4 79.6 82.2 54.4 48.9 58.3 58.2 58.6 62.0 59.1 68.6 67.7 66.6 64.7 75.5 70.4 75.2 78.6 84.1 53.4 51.2 60.8 57.2 60.0 59.6 61.1 70.1 67.5 66.2 68.8 74.4 71.2 76.5 79.1 84.3 51.7 53.2 59.4 57.4 61.4 56.9 64.4 69.9 68.0 63.1 72.0 72.6 70.8 78.3 80.0 85.8 53.4 50.8 58.4 58.2 59.6 60.3 60.5 69.0 68.0 65.8 67.0 74.3 71.0 75.4 79.3 84.1 86.4 93.3 99.4 95.8 103.3 111.8 104.9 109.0 118.9 132.3 130.1 106.9 124.5 131.9 139.1 142.6 86.9 93.6 100.2 96.0 104.9 111.2 104.1 110.9 120.3 133.4 130.4 106.4 125.7 133.0 140.3 142.3 87.2 93.9 100.6 96.5 105.1 110.5 103.7 113.1 122.1 133.2 130.1 107.1 126.4 135.6 140.3 143.2 88.2 93.6 100.2 97.2 103.9 111.4 103.9 113.5 122.7 132.4 127.7 109.4 126.3 136.0 141.5 140.3 89.0 94.2 99.4 98.0 104.9 111.0 104.0 113.9 122.9 132.4 127.0 111.9 128.0 135.8 141.8 141.4 89.0 94.4 98.5 99.5 105.6 110.2 103.7 114.2 123.2 132.6 124.9 115.5 129.7 135.5 142.5 141.6 89.8 95.0 97.9 100.7 106.4 108.7 103.4 114.0 124.1 132.1 123.2 118.3 130.2 135.0 141.2 141.2 90.2 95.1 96.9 102.6 106.5 108.2 103.6 113.4 125.8 130.9 120.5 119.2 129.9 136.9 142.0 140.1 91.3 95.5 96.2 102.9 108.2 108.3 104.6 113.8 127.8 130.6 116.9 119.9 130.1 138.0 142.9 140.1 91.6 96.4 95.7 103.0 110.1 108.3 104.7 115.3 129.2 130.8 114.2 120.5 129.9 139.1 143.6 137.8 92.4 97.4 95.5 103.5 110.7 107.2 105.1 116.0 130.1 131.1 111.3 121.2 131.8 139.4 142.8 135.6 92.6 98.4 95.2 104.3 111.5 106.2 107.4 117.5 131.6 129.8 109.2 121.7 132.5 140.2 143.0 135.2 86.8 93.6 100.1 96.1 104.4 111.2 104.2 111.0 120.4 133.0 130.2 106.8 125.5 133.5 139.9 142.7 88.7 94.1 99.4 98.2 104.8 110.9 103.9 113.9 122.9 132.5 126.5 112.3 128.0 135.8 141.9 141.1 90.4 95.2 97.0 102.1 107.0 108.4 103.9 113.7 125.9 131.2 120.2 119.1 130.1 136.6 142.0 140.5 92.2 97.4 95.5 103.6 110.8 107.2 105.7 116.3 130.3 130.6 111.6 121.1 131.4 139.6 143.1 136.2 89.6 95.1 98.0 100.0 106.8 109.4 104.4 113.7 124.9 131.8 122.1 114.8 128.8 136.4 141.8 140.1 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD ... -19!i 16.8 24.7 10.9 14.5 2.1 24.5 -8 . 3 -6.8 0. 23.8 0. 7.1 1.5 12.6 -23.3 -4.7 19.2 -13.1 8.6 1.9 15.8 24.0 -11 . 5 -5.2 1.9 15.7 -19.4 12.6 16.3 17.5 6.9 -11.4 18.9 -5.9 8.5 5.9 0. 11.2 5.4 -3.5 5.9 19.2 -21.0 26.3 3.0 7.5 9.2 -7.1 34.6 -15.0 -13.3 -3.7 13.3 3.6 5.4 -8.6 7.9 1.6 1.7 34.2 -5.8 10.6 -8.5 -2.4 28.2 -4.0 -2.0 -10.9 25.2 3.6 -24.6 -1.8 27.7 0. 0. 11.9 -16.6 13.7 9.2 0. 15.3 -15.3 25.2 -17.7 17.5 3.6 -5.2 7.5 39.1 -9.1 -3.4 17.2 -11.6 -4.2 -10.5 24.5 40.5 -8.0 -15.0 -1.9 14.9 16.9 5. 5 1.8 19.7 -3.1 10.7 1.6 13.1 -5.6 -12.5 36.2 14.7 -6.1 35.5 -21.2 4.0 5.3 3 .6 -8.6 32.6 -7.7 3.4 15.1 7.9 2.9 -10.7 44.8 -27.1 11.1 31.9 -29.3 17.0 8.9 1 .8 -16.6 27.3 -6.3 7.0 -13.1 11.2 15.3 -6.6 2.3 -3.9 0. -5.7 -13.5 36.0 -6.6 9.2 -21.4 14.5 -20.5 -3.3 24.4 -5.9 7.3 -20.6 7.0 -11.4 -4.1 4.0 -15.5 30.0 1.7 -15.1 11.9 2.0 11.0 10.2 2.1 9.7 -11.3 -20.3 28.5 -6.4 -6.5 16.6 12.8 4.3 4.3 9.5 12.9 7.8 -10.9 3.3 -13.7 19.4 15.3 6.6 2.8 -22.5 31.4 -5.3 -9.0 -3.3 -4.3 7.2 3.9 10.1 2.5 20.3 -6.3 -8.8 23.0 15.1 10.4 2.8 -5.5 12.2 10.5 10.9 -2.5 -4.4 4.2 3.9 4.9 6.4 2.3 -7.3 -4.5 26.6 19.5 -1.8 -2.7 8.2 6.9 26.2 0. 7.9 -22.4 14.7 -3.8 -4.7 9.1 -12.9 10.2 2.3 4.3 6.1 -7.0 -20.0 29.0 -0.9 3.6 10.8 -21.8 -40.7 11.4 8.0 -9.2 10.3 12.2 -4.2 1.2 4.3 2.0 0. -6.4 31.1 17.4 -1.8 2.6 9.8 -25.1 0. 2.6 -10.3 20.0 8.3 -8.3 -3.4 3.2 3.0 1.8 -18.1 46.2 17.2 -2.6 6.1 1.7 10.2 11.3 7.9 -7.1 15.5 9.5 -15.2 -3.4 -2.1 9.1 -4.4 -15.2 33.3 4.7 -4.3 -10.4 -3.3 50.6 5.5 1.3 -11.6 25.1 1.1 -5.4 2.3 -6.1 17.7 -10.4 -23.3 9.5 -2.7 18.3 7.0 -9.0 26.1 15.7 5.2 -8.3 3.6 20.9 1.1 12.2 4.3 20.8 -2.7 -30.5 7.3 1.9 10.1 7.9 0. 47.5 4.0 11.9 -6.1 1.2 23.2 0. 1.2 17.0 14.0 1.9 -24.5 6.2 -1.8 10.0 6.0 -18.0 7.4 -13.2 15.9 3.4 10.2 8.8 6.5 19.2 -10.4 -5.2 -2.5 10.9 -2.2 1.7 6.8 12.0 -12.0 18.3 0.7 9.3 7.3 5.8 19.7 -5.1 -5.2 2.6 19.5 -14.0 15.0 6.8 12.5 -3.6 -7.8 24.0 -11.4 0.7 1.3 9.5 12.6 -0.6 -5.8 5.2 11.9 -13.5 24.0 4.1 11.8 5.2 5.3 12.0 2.1 5.5 1.8 -11.1 24.0 15.7 10.5 -2.1 -16.5 15.7 3.7 2.6 -1.4 -4.1 5.2 5.7 9.2 5.6 3.1 -3.5 -9.1 23.0 16.6 5.0 0.9 -7.5 16.4 9.7 0.3 0.6 -10.8 8.6 1.3 3.3 6.0 2.3 -1.4 -3.8 17.6 13.4 0.3 -7.2 9.7 5.9 13.0 7.1 -6.3 -23.9 10.8 4.8 -9.0 14.7 10.5 -6.5 3.7 -1.3 15.9 -5.8 -23.0 16.7 1.3 8.0 1.5 -4.1 41.4 5.9 12.7 -4.1 5.6 13.0 -7.4 11.9 13.7 12.5 -2.2 -23.8 6.2 7.9 6.6 0.4 -13.0 5.8 -5.2 2.6 19.6 -13.5 15.3 6.9 12.5 11.0 13.2 -2.5 6.0 6.7 -11.5 4.7 7.5 8.7 2.8 -26.6 7.2 19.0 2.6 -6.5 -17.6 19.2 2.6 13.0 -3.7 9.7 9.0 -10.6 29.7 16.7 14.7 -11.3 -20.4 5.1 6.6 7.1 1.7 -3.5 -9.2 5.2 5.8 9.3 5.6 3.9 -3.4 -9.0 23.0 16.6 5.1 1.0 -6.6 16.8 10.5 0.6 0.7 -10.4 -ii!e -l&'.9 12.7 -3.6 -7.5 14.7 4.4 5.3 6.8 12.3 -2.1 8.2 -7.4 15.5 7.1 -1 . 8 -7.7 16.7 1.9 -3.6 13.1 2.7 7.2 7.7 6.4 -3.0 9.8 7.5 -4.5 1.6 9.8 12.2 -1.2 -15.2 12.9 9.3 6.2 2.3 -5.0 4.6 AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D 3.0 -3.2 25.8 -11.6 2.0 -11.0 18.6 3.6 -9.0 -1.2 24.2 -2.6 -0.6 20.7 -11.5 6.4 -3.6 6.7 27.6 -9.2 1.4 -10.4 19.1 7.8 -9.0 2.4 28.6 -4.2 2.3 10.0 -5.9 1.0 -5.1 19.2 22.9 -9.9 13.0 -14.0 12.0 8.4 1.2 0. 30.2 -6.7 3.4 11.1 2.6 -2.3 -11.2 34.9 5.5 -1.4 14.9 -18.2 11.8 10.3 3.6 -8.1 26.4 -5.7 7.0 0.5 10.7 3.9 -10.0 26.4 -7.0 1.4 19.0 -21.6 18.3 2.3 4.8 -15.7 24.6 -11.7 2.3 7.6 4.1 8.4 -12.8 16.6 -14.7 2.1 9.0 -19.7 27.4 1.1 3.6 -19.5 23.3 -11.3 -1.1 8.0 5.7 8.9 -14.3 7.0 -4.6 2.1 2.6 -9.3 24.7 -5.6 1.8 -17.1 11.9 -4.8 -7.6 14.4 4.1 5.3 -18.4 11.9 4.1 5.7 9.5 -4.1 21.1 -6.1 -3.5 -10.2 14.8 2.8 -4.4 6.9 10.5 4.3 10.0 2.6 -3.2 8.6 0. -0.7 -0.4 11.3 8.9 -3.0 -10.0 22.3 7.5 8.7 4.3 -2.5 -29.9 8.5 2.1 -8.1 13.0 1.9 -1.1 0. 3.9 3.7 -1.8 -15.1 35.3 10.9 -0.3 6.4 -4.4 -21.2 7.5 6.1 -8.9 15.2 10.0 -9.3 -1.9 1.8 4.6 -0.9 -13.4 36.7 12.9 -2.9 -0.8 2.6 7.5 5.5 3.9 -9.7 20.1 6.2 -9.7 -1.5 -1.7 9.8 -4.5 -19.0 28.8 6.1 3.3 0.6 -3.6 27.9 10.7 4.7 -9.0 14.4 10.2 -6.7 3.5 -1.4 15.8 -5.9 -23.3 16.1 1.2 7.6 1.1 -4.2 41.0 8.3 6.0 -8.7 9.5 14.7 -1.5 5.1 4.6 17.5 -3.9 -26.2 7.6 -0.9 12.7 7.0 -9.3 25.9 10.1 10.0 -5.7 3.6 16.7 -3.6 5.9 9.5 14.4 0.6 -27.2 6.9 6.0 7.5 2.3 -12.2 23.6 5.8 12.7 -4.1 5.6 12.8 -7.5 11.1 13.7 12.4 -2.4 -23.9 6.1 7.6 6.5 0.3 -13.3 5.1 7.6 13.0 0.4 1.2 6.3 -12.0 17.5 13.1 9.9 -2.1 -23.2 14.0 6.3 0. -2.8 -8.7 2 8.7 2.3 -8.1 13.1 2.5 -0.8 0. 3.9 3.7 -1.7 -14.8 35.4 11.2 -0.3 6.5 -3.4 -18.5 -9.1 -4.8 16.0 -12.7 3.1 6.2 4.3 2.2 -7.0 27.1 -8.4 -2.7 -3.2 12.4 6.0 -5.7 -4.7 13.4 6.6 -7.0 23.8 -6.8 10.6 'This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user. -14.1 7.1 -4.4 2.3 2.8 -9.0 25.2 -5.4 1.9 -1.0 24.9 -2.5 -0.6 21.1 -11.3 6.7 -11.2 35.2 9.4 -1.0 17.5 -17.5 12.0 10.4 3.6 -7.8 26.5 -5.7 7.0 1.2 10.7 4.2 18.3 1.9 9.3 7.4 6.0 19.9 3.3 -3.2 26.0 -11.4 3.3 -10.8 18.7 3.6 910-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS 1 (COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, P E R C E N T ) 1948... 1949... III Q 55.0 50.0 54.3 60.4 58.2 62.5 56.8 66.4 69.0 67.5 62.4 73.6 73.1 70.5 78.9 81.3 910-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS 2 (COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... II Q 19.4 -2.4 6.7 5.8 7.3 17.2 -5.4 -5.4 1.8 14.1 -9.9 13.6 5.9 12.1 0.5 -1.2 26.8 -9.7 0.2 -8.2 16.7 5.8 -7.9 -1.2 22.1 -0.1 -1.8 18.2 -8.1 6.0 -8.8 26.8 7.1 -3.3 15.6 -17.9 14.0 7.0 3.2 -7.9 27.1 -8.0 4.2 6.4 5.8 3.3 -15.2 11.8 -5.1 3.3 7.0 -11.0 24.4 -3.5 0.6 -15.6 16.7 -4.4 -4.4 9.8 6.8 6.2 12.1 -3.0 7.4 -7.8 15.6 6.6 -2.4 -7.5 16.9 0.4 -2.9 12.0 2.6 6.9 6.3 4.1 8.2 4.6 3.6 -1.0 -8.0 21.5 15.2 5.3 -2.8 -4.8 12.7 8.8 3.3 -2.4 -12.9 8.7 3.6 -6.7 12.3 4.0 -3.7 -0.8 5.7 5.7 -1.9 -12.8 31.4 10.4 1.8 3.3 -1.4 -14.5 8.2 4.9 -9.1 14.7 10.4 -6.0 2.4 0.5 14.4 -4.8 -22.8 17.5 2.1 7.9 2.9 -5.7 31.6 7.8 11.9 -3.1 3.5 11.9 -7.7 11.5 12.1 12.2 -1.3 -24.8 9.0 6.6 4.7 -0.1 -11.4 7.8 6.1 -2.7 8.7 7.5 -4.6 1.3 10.0 11.9 -0.7 -15.8 13.3 8.0 5.8 2.4 -5.2 -11 ".0 This series contains revisions b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1979 ... e!e (JANUARY 1981) 103 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Quarterly Monthly Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1 Q 920. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS1 (1967=100) II Q Annual III Q IV Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 50.2 49.8 48.2 57.7 58.0 63.8 60.2 62.1 68.4 69.7 64.6 67.3 72.0 67.4 72.3 74.8 50.1 49.3 47.9 57.5 58.9 64.3 60.2 62.5 68.3 70.2 63.3 68.0 71.8 67.1 73.0 75.4 50.6 48.8 49.4 57.7 58.9 64.9 59.6 63.7 68.3 70.1 62.4 69.0 71.2 67.6 73.5 75.7 50.2 48.4 50.5 58.0 58.7 64.9 59.3 64.5 68.9 69.4 61.4 70.0 71.4 67.9 73.9 76.3 50.5 47.8 51.7 57.9 58.9 65.0 59.1 65.4 68.5 69.1 61.6 70.8 71.1 68.6 74.0 76.6 51.4 47.5 52.9 58.0 58.5 64.7 59.2 65.7 68.5 69.2 62.4 71.1 70.7 69.6 73.9 77.0 51.5 46.9 54.9 57.4 57.5 64.9 59.0 66.4 66.1 69.2 63.4 70.4 70.3 69.7 74.3 77.1 51.6 47.4 56.6 57.7 60.0 64.1 59.0 66.3 68.3 69.2 64.0 68.4 69.9 70.4 74.5 77.3 51.5 48.1 55.9 57.4 61.7 63.4 59.3 66.9 69.0 68.6 64.6 68.1 69.6 70.4 74.5 77.7 51.6 46.0 56.1 57.7 62.5 63.1 59.6 67.5 69.7 67.9 65.0 67.9 69.3 71.3 74.7 78.3 51.3 46.9 55.9 57.9 62.9 62.0 60.7 67.9 69.6 66.8 66.5 68.5 68.5 72.3 75.1 78.0 50.8 47.5 57.2 57.9 63.4 60.9 61.4 68.3 70.0 65.6 66.2 71.1 67.5 72.7 74.8 78.6 50.3 49.3 48.5 57.6 58.6 64.3 60.0 62.8 68.3 70.0 63.4 68.1 71.7 67.4 72.9 75.3 50.7 47.9 51.7 58.0 58.7 64.9 59.2 65.2 68.6 69.2 61.8 70.6 71.1 68.7 73.9 76.6 51.5 47.5 55.8 57.5 59.7 64.1 59.1 66.5 67.8 69.0 64.0 69.0 69.9 70.2 74.4 77.4 51.2 46.8 56.4 57.8 62.9 62.0 60.6 67.9 69.8 66.8 65.9 69.2 68.4 72.1 74.9 78.3 50.9 47.9 53.1 57.7 60.0 63.8 59.7 65.6 68.6 68.8 63.8 69.2 70.3 69.6 74.0 76.9 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971. .. 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 78.9 85.5 93.7 99.3 102.8 108.7 110.3 108.3 113.8 124.8 127.7 115.4 120.3 126.3 134.0 144.8 79.7 86.1 94.4 98.8 103.5 109.4 110.3 108.1 114.2 126.1 127.0 113.7 121.6 127.6 135.0 144.9 79.7 87.0 95.5 98.9 103.9 109.9 110.4 108.5 115.4 126.7 126.9 112.3 122.4 129.7 136.9 146.6 80.7 87.4 95.6 99.2 104.2 110.2 110.1 108.9 116.4 126.6 126.6 112.6 123.3 130.0 139.3 144.1 81.3 88.0 96.1 99.0 105.0 110.3 109.7 109.3 116.9 126.9 127.0 113.4 123.4 130.6 139.5 145.6 81.5 88.6 97.1 99.2 105.8 110.8 109.2 109.5 116.6 127.2 127.1 114.2 123.6 131.3 140.1 145.0 82.1 89.5 97.4 99.5 106.3 111.5 109.3 109.3 117.5 127.7 126.9 115.1 124.0 131.7 140.5 145.4 82.7 89.8 97.6 100.3 106.4 111.8 108.9 109.0 119.0 127.2 126.1 116.7 124.3 131.9 141.4 145.0 83.3 90.3 97.8 100.4 106.7 111.9 108.7 109.8 119.4 127.9 125.4 117.5 124.3 132.6 141.4 144.9 82.3 91.4 98.3 100.3 107.4 112.4 106.4 109.9 121.3 128.9 124.2 117.9 124.1 133.8 143.0 145.1 83.8 92.2 98.3 101.9 108.1 111.4 105.4 110.8 122.6 129.7 121.2 118.4 125.6 134.7 144.3 145.0 85.3 93.2 98.5 103.2 108.5 111.5 107.3 112.0 123.9 129.0 117.7 118.9 127.1 135.7 145.5 145.2 79.4 86.2 94.5 99.0 103.4 109.3 110.3 108.3 114.5 125.9 127.2 113.8 121.4 127.9 135.3 145.4 81.2 88 .0 96.3 99.1 105.0 110.4 109.7 109.2 116.6 126.9 126.9 113.4 123.4 130.6 139.6 144.9 82.7 89.9 97.6 100.1 106.5 111.7 109.0 109.4 118.6 127.6 126.1 116.4 124.2 132.1 141.1 145.1 83.8 92.3 98.4 101.8 108.0 111.8 106.4 110.9 122.6 129.2 121.0 118.4 125.6 134.7 144.3 145.1 81.8 89.1 96.7 100.0 105.7 110.8 108.8 109.4 118.1 127.4 125.3 115.5 123.7 131.3 140.1 145.1 920-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS2 (COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951.. . 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960. .. 1961... 1962... 1963... -21.2 19.2 11.0 2.1 7.8 -13.0 14.6 1.8 -5.0 -16.8 21.9 16.3 -1.8 -6.4 0. 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967. .. 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971. .. 1972. .. 1973... 1974. .. 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978. .. 1979... 1980... 4.7 2.8 6.6 10.2 -4.6 2.2 -12.2 11.8 21.1 9.1 -11.4 -21.1 15.1 -7.3 -14.0 -5.6 7.7 -2.4 -11.4 -7.2 -4.1 20.3 9.8 0. 8.0 -1.7 9.0 -21.6 13.2 -3.3 -5.2 12.3 10.1 12.9 8.8 9.3 -5.9 8.5 8.0 0. -2.2 4.3 13.2 -6.4 -16.3 13.8 13.1 9.3 0.8 -5.6 12.7 -11.5 44.8 4.3 0. 11.8 -11.3 25.6 0. -1.7 -15.8 19.1 -9.6 9.3 8.5 4.9 -9.1 -9.4 30.2 6.4 -4.0 0. -5.9 16.2 11.1 -11.3 -17.6 18.8 3.4 5.5 6.7 9.9 7.4 -13.9 32.6 -2.0 4.2 1.9 -4.0 18.1 -6.7 -5.1 4.0 14.6 -4.9 13.1 1.6 4.8 23.6 -7.3 31.7 2.1 -7.9 -5.4 2.0 5.6 0. 1.7 16.7 5.2 -6.5 19.0 -1.6 6.4 2.4 -14.1 56.1 -11.7 -18.7 3.8 -4.0 13.6 -34.8 0. 21.0 -11.2 -6.6 1.7 6.7 1.6 2.4 13.6 44.2 6.5 66.6 -13.8 0. -1.8 48.1 0. 12.0 -29.2 -6.6 12.7 3.3 3.2 0. 13.3 14.9 1.2 4.7 5.6 1.1 4.5 13.4 5.9 -0.9 -13.8 8.2 21.6 18.3 15.0 -15.3 16.1 5.7 1.3 3.7 3.5 3.3 -3.2 4.5 10.9 -0.9 -2.8 3.3 9.2 2.8 23.2 -18.6 -20.4 9.3 8.6 6.5 -2.4 9.6 1.1 -4.3 4.5 5.3 2.9 3.9 8.9 1.0 5.7 1.7 13.2 -21.4 3.0 8.5 13.2 2.5 9.5 5.6 -5.3 2.2 -3.0 2.9 0.9 8.8 2.0 6.6 5.3 -4.8 -10.7 9.2 12.9 3.8 3.7 5.8 7.8 1.1 -2.2 9.7 4.8 -1.9 9.9 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.4 0.9 9.1 4.1 2.5 10.1 1.1 3.3 -4.3 -3.2 16.4 -4.6 -7.3 18.0 2.9 1.8 8.0 -3.3 -0.9 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -2.3 19.2 -13.9 -6.1 39.8 -12 . 3 6.3 11.4 13.0 -9.9 11.8 -5.1 -5.0 0. 0. 6.4 2.4 -41.5 4.4 6.5 16.7 -5.5 6.2 11.3 12.9 -11.6 7.7 -3.5 -5.1 16.5 3.3 9.7 -6.8 26.2 -4.2 4.2 8.0 -19.0 24.5 7.3 -1.7 -17.8 31.5 11.1 -13.0 18.2 6.6 -4.5 -11.1 16.5 31.8 0. 10.0 -19.3 14.8 7.3 7.1 -19.5 -5.3 56.4 -16.2 6.8 -4.7 9.6 -14.7 18.9 3.7 7.5 9.8 -8.1 16.1 0. 0.8 -18.1 18.1 1.1 0.8 4.8 5.0 -10.2 31.5 9.1 6.9 2.5 1.2 3.4 1.1 -2.2 9.2 4.1 6.8 -6.5 8.5 0. 6.6 0. -0.8 21.1 -13.5 15.6 6.3 -1.2 8.2 5.5 -22.6 1.1 20.9 9.8 -10.9 4.2 -1.9 11.4 14.5 1.7 13.8 24.2 11.0 0. 20.9 8.1 -10.2 -10.7 10.3 13.6 7.7 -25.4 5.2 15.5 8.4 11.5 -0.8 6.2 23.7 13.8 2.5 16.4 4.5 1.1 23.9 13.8 13.5 -6.3 -29.6 5.2 15.3 9.3 10.4 1.7 7.9 5.9 8.3 10.3 1.8 2.9 5.3 -3.7 4.7 12.9 9.4 -6.2 -17.1 12.4 9.1 4 .5 3.4 -4.4 9.5 7.6 7.0 1.3 7.5 3.3 7.3 920-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS2 (COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953. .. 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... ... -14." 7 8.8 12.0 7.1 9.2 -11.1 12.4 2.4 3.5 -19.4 9.3 20.7 -7.9 3.9 1.6 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972. .. 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 9.0 11.4 9.9 2.0 6.4 4.9 -3.9 10.6 12.9 11.9 -8.1 -22.5 11.3 6.5 0.9 1.7 1.1 -14.8 17.0 3.5 7.1 9.8 -8.3 15.8 0. 0.6 -18.1 18 .0 0.6 0.6 4.5 4.9 5.7 8.2 10.2 1.6 2.7 5.3 -3.9 4.5 12.7 9.4 -6.4 -17.1 12.3 8.4 3.6 3.1 -4.9 104 -2.6 -1.2 -2.6 13.3 1.5 -4.9 1.0 12.9 -2.7 12.5 2.2 7.0 -4.3 3.7 4.4 1.6 0.7 7.0 4.1 5.0 10.1 -3.4 -17.5 -5.2 0.4 10.7 3.6 11.6 -14.6 15.2 8.6 6.1 -16.3 11.3 21.3 -11.4 13.8 1.7 4.9 -4.6 22.5 1.4 11.4 -3.3 1.3 11.4 4.1 -5.9 2.3 9.3 -4.8 8.0 3.0 5.2 9.1 8.0 2.9 5.0 3.4 4.1 -1.8 1.3 10.1 2.3 -5.2 12.1 2.3 4.0 3.8 -0.2 7.0 11.5 13.5 2.9 12.0 6.9 -1.2 -3.1 8.4 16.0 3.7 -22.0 4.9 9.6 9.7 12.1 0.9 9.3 9.0 9.3 5.8 5.0 5.2 2.9 -3.2 4.5 10.8 4.3 -8.2 1.7 7.1 7.0 7.6 0.2 -1.4 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 0. -10.8 20.5 2.1 4.9 7.1 -5.8 16.4 3.0 -1.7 -18.4 17.0 -3.3 3.0 9.2 8.3 3.2 -11.6 35.7 2 .8 0. 4.4 -7.1 19.9 1.2 -6.1 -10.3 17.5 -3.8 9.2 5.6 6.5 6.5 -10.2 31.5 2.1 -2 .7 -1.2 -2.7 13.2 1.2 -5.0 0. 12.7 -2.8 12.4 2.2 7.0 10.8 -11.8 39.7 -4.1 -7.9 0. -2.0 12.3 -15.3 -1.1 13.7 2.3 -6.0 11.0 2.2 4.3 9.0 -3.3 43.6 -1.4 7.7 -5.4 -0.7 5.6 -1.2 0.6 16.5 -12.9 -6.6 10.9 2.7 3.7 0.8 5.1 24.7 -4.1 23.7 -7.8 0.7 7.5 3.0 -3.4 14.9 -15.8 -6.1 4.7 3.3 3.7 0.8 -7.5 9.0 2.1 39.6 -10.6 4.1 6.8 23.6 -7.3 10.5 -13.5 -5.6 9.5 2.2 6.4 -2.3 -4.2 -4.9 1.4 20.8 -12.5 12.0 10.0 7.8 -13.2 16.6 0.6 -7.8 11.2 3.3 3.7 -5.3 -4.9 9.6 3.5 11.5 -14.9 14.9 8.6 5.9 -16.4 10.3 18.8 -11.5 13.7 1.6 4.7 -13.2 20.5 11.9 2.1 8.6 -17.2 17.9 5.4 0. -18.1 14.9 26.4 -10.5 5.7 0.5 3.1 9.4 9.2 8.4 -0.4 5.6 5.6 -0.7 2.2 9.5 5.9 -3.4 -9.4 10.4 12.2 16.8 -1.9 -14.0 8.3 9.1 7.4 0.8 5.9 3.3 -2.2 4.5 9.8 2.6 0. -1.1 6.1 9.7 14.0 1.9 -19.1 9.3 7.6 6.9 1.2 7.5 3.3 -4.3 3.7 4.2 1.6 0.6 6.9 4.0 5.0 9.7 -4.3 -17.7 7.1 10.0 7.7 1.2 8.3 4.8 -2.9 1.5 3.8 3.5 1.0 9.2 2.3 5.3 3.5 3.7 -10.9 7.1 8.4 6.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 -2.9 -1.1 7.4 0.9 -2.8 12.2 2.9 4.0 5.6 -1.6 -3.7 9.1 7.9 2.9 4.9 3.4 4.0 -1.8 1.1 10.0 2 .2 -5.2 12.1 2.3 4.0 3.8 -0.3 6.6 1.0 8.8 3.7 3.3 4.2 3.3 -10.2 2.2 13.6 3.8 -8 .2 10.1 0.3 6.5 7.3 -0.8 11.0 5.4 11.1 2.9 6.5 6.5 -1.4 -12.2 6.8 12.7 8.1 -14.7 6.0 4.2 8.8 8.5 0. 13.5 10.0 13.5 2.9 11.6 6.9 -1.4 -5.1 8.3 15.9 3.5 -22.4 4.9 9.3 9.7 12.1 0.8 9.2 16.5 10.5 4.1 10.3 4.9 -7.3 7.3 15.0 12.1 -3.7 -25.5 8.4 7.3 0.6 5.1 2.8 This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user. 2.2 0.8 6.2 28.8 -3.8 29.2 -7.4 0.8 7.7 8.8 -3.3 14.9 -15.2 -6.1 4.8 3.3 3.7 6.8 -13.4 15.4 5.9 6.4 8.7 -8.4 14.9 1.8 0.8 -18.6 14.8 6.0 -1.4 5.9 4.9 -11.2 35.6 8.0 9.6 9.5 1.1 4.9 5.3 -2.8 5.8 11.7 9.1 -6.0 -16.3 11.3 9.0 7.1 1.0 -5.9 8.2 8.9 7.3 1.1 7.2 3.8 This series contains revisions beginning with 1979. 0.3 -3.5 1.1 -3.9 15.1 -4.3 -4.1 1.1 10.8 -4.2 10.9 3.3 5.9 -3.1 3.2 5.9 2.6 0.5 5.0 4.1 6.7 9.1 0.4 -15.9 3.5 -1.9 25.8 -1.1 23.7 -7.9 1.4 6.6 8.5 -3.4 14.0 -14.1 -6.1 8.4 2.7 4.6 -6.9 3.8 5.5 2.3 13.6 -14.9 14.9 8.0 4.6 -15.9 13.9 15.3 -9.9 10.2 1.8 3.8 -5.7 20.6 1.8 10.0 -3.3 1.0 11.2 2.6 -5.6 2.6 6.7 -3.6 7.0 3.4 4.8 5.7 8.4 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.3 -5.0 0.7 10.3 2.3 -5.4 11.5 1.8 4.8 5.6 -0.9 4.6 10.6 11.7 3.3 9.5 6.1 -3.4 -3.3 10.0 13.6 2.6 -20.9 6.4 6.9 6.4 8.6 1.2 8.2 9.6 6.1 4.0 5.6 2.5 -3.6 4.9 10.4 4.1 -7.9 1.6 6.1 6.7 7.6 0.4 (JANUARY 1981) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Quarterly Monthly Annual Year Jan. Feb. Apr. Mar. May June July Sept. Aug. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ 930. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS1 (1967=100) 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951. .. 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960. .. 1961... 1962... 1963... 46.1 49.5 47.4 53.9 60.4 64.7 67.2 61.9 68.1 73.7 74.3 68.2 74.1 76.1 73.3 76.4 46.4 49.6 47.2 54.7 60.4 65.4 66.6 62.0 68.4 73.3 73.2 68.4 75.4 75.8 73.1 76.6 46.7 49.4 47.0 55.5 60.8 65.9 65.8 62.5 69.4 73.5 72.8 68.7 76.2 75.2 73.6 76.7 46.9 49.1 47.3 56.2 60.6 67.0 65.3 62.2 70.4 74.0 71.9 69.2 76.4 74.2 74.0 76.6 47.0 49.0 47.9 57.0 61.4 67.4 64.5 62.7 71.4 74.1 70.2 69.9 77.2 73.8 74.3 76.8 47.5 48.6 48.1 57.9 62.4 67.4 63.7 63.7 71.9 74.3 69.0 70.9 77.7 73.1 74.9 77.2 48.4 48.2 48.3 58.1 62.2 67.9 63.3 64.1 73.0 74.4 68.4 71.8 77.4 72.6 75.1 77.8 48.9 47.8 49.2 58.6 62.0 67.9 62.3 65.6 72.0 75.1 67.7 73.0 77.2 72.6 75.4 78.0 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979. .. 1980... 79.6 83.9 90.3 99.9 100.8 108.0 118.0 108.7 105.4 112.5 132.9 140.6 119.5 120.2 134.1 157.4 80.2 84.5 91.5 99.7 101.5 108.8 118.1 108.2 104.6 114.2 131.8 135.9 119.0 121.0 135.9 158.5 80.5 85.4 92.5 100.2 101.5 109.7 117.6 107.3 104.9 115.9 131.5 132.4 118.7 121.7 137.2 158.4 80.9 86.1 93.5 99.7 102.3 111.2 115.6 106.5 105.6 118.2 135.5 129.0 118.7 122.3 137.8 161.8 80.8 86.7 94.5 99.8 103.7 112.1 115.5 106.7 106.3 119.5 139.4 126.9 119.2 123.1 140.0 162.5 81.2 86.9 95.6 100.1 104.1 114.4 115.9 105.8 106.9 121.7 140.4 122.4 120.1 125.0 142.0 163.6 81.0 87.1 96.6 100.2 103.9 115.1 115.7 107.1 106.9 124.4 142.2 122.7 120.4 125.2 143.5 164.8 81.9 87.8 97.5 99.8 104.4 115.4 116.0 108.1 107.2 127.4 142.6 122.4 120.0 126.5 144.5 166.4 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967. .. 1968. .. 1969. .. 1970. .. 1971... 1972... 1973. .. 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977. . . 1978... 1979... 1980... III Q IV Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 49.1 47.6 50'. 4 58.8 62.3 68.4 61.8 66.2 72.4 75.7 68.0 73.9 76.7 72.8 75.7 78.2 82.8 87.5 97.6 100.0 104.6 116.0 115.3 108.1 108.1 129.6 143.2 122.1 121.1 127.8 146.4 170.6 48.5 48.1 51.3 59.0 62.6 68.2 61.5 66.8 72.5 74.8 68.0 74.7 76.4 72.7 76.1 78.8 49.4 47.5 52.6 59.2 63.0 67.9 61.8 67.5 73.3 75.2 67.8 74.6 76.6 72.3 76.5 79.6 49.1 47.4 52.8 59.8 63.9 67.7 61.8 67.4 73.1 75.2 68.3 74.1 76.9 72.5 76.5 79.9 46.4 49.5 47.2 54.7 60.5 65.3 66.5 62.1 68.6 73.5 73.4 68.4 75.2 75.7 73.3 76.6 47.1 48.9 47.8 57.0 61.5 67.3 64.5 62.9 71.2 74.1 70.4 70.0 77.1 73.7 74.4 76.9 48.8 47.9 49.3 58.5 62.2 68.1 62.5 65.3 72.5 75.1 68.0 72.9 77.1 72.7 75.4 78.0 49.0 47.7 52.2 59.3 63.2 67.9 61.7 67.2 73.0 75.1 68.0 74.5 76.6 72.5 76.4 79.4 47.8 48.5 49.1 57.4 61.8 67.2 63.8 64.4 71.3 74.4 70.0 71.4 76.5 73.6 74.9 77.7 82.9 88 .2 97.8 99.5 104.5 116.9 114.2 107.3 108.9 129.6 143.1 122.7 120.7 129.4 148.1 175.9 82.3 88.9 99.0 99.9 105.2 116.7 112.7 106.6 109.5 130.0 141.9 120.6 120.2 131.1 152.7 179.1 83.2 89.9 99.4 101.0 106.8 117.3 111.1 106.6 110.2 131.5 141.9 120.1 119.9 131.7 155.2 177.9 80.1 84.6 91.4 99.9 101.3 108.8 117.9 108.1 105.0 114.2 132.1 136.3 119.1 121.0 135.7 158.1 81.0 86.6 94.5 99.9 103.4 112.6 115.7 106.3 106.3 119.8 138.4 126.1 119.3 123.5 139.9 162.6 81.9 87.5 97.2 100.0 104.3 115.5 115.7 107.8 107.4 127.1 142.7 122.4 120.5 126.5 144.8 167.3 82.8 89.0 98.7 100.1 105.5 117.0 112.7 106.8 109.5 130.4 142.3 121.1 120.3 130.7 152.0 177.6 81.4 86.9 95.5 100.0 103.6 113.5 115.5 107.2 107.0 122.9 138.9 126.5 119.8 125.4 143.1 166.4 14.5 -7.9 21.1 6.4 -0.5 6.2 -11.3 17.1 3.9 7.8 -5.4 18.0 -5.0 -1.5 4.4 5.3 1.3 -1.0 21.1 7.1 10.8 -4.1 0.1 7.6 4.2 -2.3 1.9 1.5 1.1 -1.5 4.3 9.0 -3.1 12.2 13.5 7.2 6.3 -8.5 9.5 9.0 3.1 -8.7 8.9 4.1 -5.5 5.6 4.5 8.4 3.0 8.8 -0.4 2.0 5.7 -2.0 9.2 4.7 28.7 8.4 -0.9 3.6 9.4 13.0 18.8 -7.6 2 .4 11.4 7.8 4.4 9.0 4.7 -13.8 -5.4 8.0 6.2 -3.5 -5.8 -3.9 12.9 26.9 20.3 164.3 4.4 8.2 10.7 1.8 6.0 10.1 -4.9 -3.5 3.6 19.7 9.1 -14.3 0. 10.0 18.2 15.5 41.7 930-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS 2 (COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952. .. 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961. .. 1962. .. 1963... II Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 10.2 0. 28.1 12.7 16.1 -8.5 2.0 13.2 10.3 -13.5 -1.7 0. -11.8 14.1 -1.6 8.1 2.5 -4.9 19.3 0. 13.8 -10.2 2.0 5.4 -6.3 -16.4 3.6 23.2 -4.6 -3.2 3.2 8.0 -4.7 -5.0 19.0 8.2 9.6 -13.5 10.1 19.0 3.3 -6.4 5.4 13.5 -9.1 8.5 1.6 5.3 -7.0 7.9 16.2 -3.9 22.0 -8.7 -5.6 18.7 8.5 -13.9 9.1 3.2 -14.8 6.7 -1.6 2.6 -2.4 16.3 18.5 17.0 7.4 -13.7 10.1 18.4 1.6 -25.0 12.8 13.3 -6.3 5.0 3.2 13.5 -9.4 5.1 20.7 21.4 0. -13.9 20.9 8.7 3.3 -18.7 18.6 8.1 -10.8 10.1 6.4 25.3 -9.4 5.1 4.2 -3.8 9.3 -7.3 7.8 20.0 1.6 -10.0 16.3 -4.5 -7.9 3.3 9.7 13.1 -9.5 24.8 10.8 -3.8 0. -17.4 32.0 -15.3 11.9 -11.6 22.0 -3.1 0. 4.9 3.1 5.0 -4.9 33.5 4.2 6.0 9.2 -9.2 11.5 6.9 10.0 5.4 15.8 -7.5 3.4 4.9 3.1 -13.7 13.4 23.7 4.2 5.9 -3.5 -5.7 11.4 1.7 -13.4 0. 13.8 -4.6 -1.6 6.5 9.6 24.7 -14.0 35.0 4.1 7.9 -5.2 6.0 13.3 14.1 6.6 -3.5 -1.6 3.2 -6.4 6.5 12.9 -7.0 -2.5 4.7 12.9 18.6 -3.5 0. -1.8 -3.2 0. 9.2 -7.8 4.8 3.4 0. 4.6 2*!7 -3.3 22.1 7.0 13.2 -10.7 4.7 12.5 2.4 -12.1 2.4 12.2 -8.5 6.5 1.1 7.1 -6.3 9.8 18.5 11.5 9.8 -12.1 8.5 15.3 4.5 -19.2 13.5 8.2 -10.6 7.3 2 .7 -4.4 10.6 5.5 6.2 -2.4 14.3 7.4 -23.1 -12.7 28.1 13.5 -10.5 -5.8 3.0 24.2 18.4 3.4 9.4 8.9 17.2 -2.4 8.7 9.3 1.0 -5.4 -8.7 19.7 -9.5 -33.5 -4.9 8.3 17.4 8.7 17.4 4.6 13.6 13.9 6.2 0. 10.4 -5.0 -9.5 3.5 19.4 -2.7 -26.9 -3.0 7.2 12.1 -0.8 81.4 6.1 10.3 13.8 -5.8 9.9 17.7 -18.6 -8.6 8.3 26.6 43.3 -26.8 0. 6.1 5.4 29.0 47.0 -1.5 8.7 13.6 1.2 17.7 10.2 -1.0 2.3 8.2 14.0 40.6 -17.9 5.2 8.1 20.9 5.3 -55.2 6.1 2.8 14.9 3.7 4.7 27.6 4.2 -9.7 7.0 24.5 9.0 -35.2 9.4 20.2 18.6 8.4 -64.1 -2.9 2.8 13.3 1.2 -2.3 7.6 -2.1 15.8 0. 30.1 16.5 3.0 3.0 1.9 13.4 9.2 -29.8 14.2 10.1 11.8 -4.7 5.9 3.2 3.2 11.8 3.4 33.1 3.4 -2.9 -3.9 13.2 8 .7 12.3 -13.1 14.0 -4.0 1.2 2.4 2.3 6.4 -7.0 0. 10.6 22.8 5.2 -2.9 11.6 13.1 17.0 34.9 20.2 1.5 10.0 2.5 -5.8 -1.1 9.7 -10.9 -8.5 9.3 0. -0.8 6.1 -3.9 16.1 14.9 44.4 33.5 -8.3 9.9 15.8 4.9 8.3 -2.0 -14.7 -7.6 6.8 3.8 -9.6 -18.7 -4.9 17.0 44.3 24.2 64.2 13.9 14.4 5.0 14.0 19.9 6.3 -15.8 0. 7.9 14.8 0. -4.9 -3.0 5.6 21.5 -7.8 395.2 3.2 11.0 12.2 3.3 2.1 11.3 1.1 -12.7 -6.0 22.4 0.4 -23.6 -4.6 6.2 17.9 8.8 34.1 3.6 7.3 14.1 -0.3 10.8 18.5 -5.1 -5.3 7.8 21.7 31.0 -26.6 4.9 11.5 15.0 14.2 -24.1 0.3 -2.2 19.1 5.5 14.7 -9.7 2.6 10.7 1.3 -11.6 4.0 9.7 -7.4 4.9 0.9 8.6 -6.1 8.2 16.9 9.6 9.2 -12.0 8.4 16.5 3.7 -17.6 12.8 7.8 -9.7 6.7 3.3 10.7 -6.1 19.7 8.1 2.0 3.6 -11.8 18.1 1.2 5.2 -7.2 18.1 -3.4 -2.4 5.3 5.6 4.2 -3.3 24.3 7.0 10.5 -3.2 -0.2 9.2 6.0 -1.6 1.2 2.3 -1.2 0. 4.0 7.2 -3.8 12.5 12.8 6.9 6.1 -8.4 9.6 8.6 2.1 -8.8 9.3 3.2 -4.9 5.2 4.3 4.2 11.0 13.1 1.8 4.9 12.7 -0.7 -12.0 -4.2 20.9 4.6 -23.1 -4.2 5.3 14.9 12.1 26.8 2.3 7.6 13.9 0.7 8.7 15.3 -4.6 -2.9 6.5 21.4 25.4 -23.0 3.8 9.4 15.0 10.6 -27.9 7.8 4.4 9.0 -1.1 2.3 8.1 -1.8 5.0 5.2 25.2 6.8 -4.8 2.4 11.6 13.3 19.3 -12.6 2.9 8.8 7.6 3.3 8.6 4.3 -14.2 -5.9 10.3 8.3 -4.1 -7.4 -1.6 14.5 26.2 19.4 4.3 7.9 10.9 1.2 6.1 10.1 -5.3 -3.9 4.4 19.0 8.2 -14.6 0.1 10.2 17.4 15.4 930-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS2 (COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 1948. . . 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955.. . 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1.6 -2.5 17.0 8.4 16.1 -7.4 1.3 5.4 0. -10.2 3.6 4.4 -4.1 4.5 0.5 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971. .. 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 3.0 11.1 12.2 2.9 6.6 14.4 4.9 -15.0 -7.3 18.3 5.7 -15.9 -5.2 2.7 15.5 16.1 3.9 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 2.5 -3.3 22.1 6.9 13.1 -10.8 4.6 12.4 2.2 -12.2 2.4 11.8 -8.6 6.2 1.0 7.1 -3.2 -0.8 18.2 1.3 15.0 -10.8 2.0 14.2 1.6 -12.3 6.0 13.0 -9.6 3.9 1.1 5.3 -4.8 6.1 17.9 6.8 12.8 -12.0 4.6 18.7 4.4 -15.4 9.1 9.9 -10.1 6.7 1.0 7.0 -6.3 9.7 18.5 10.9 9.4 -12.2 7.9 15.2 4.4 -19.3 13.4 8.1 -10.7 7.3 2.6 13.4 -7.1 8.7 14.2 11.0 5.5 -11.7 12.8 15.6 2.2 -18.1 15.9 5.3 -8.4 6.1 6.4 17.2 -9.4 11.3 11.7 4.0 3.0 -13.0 19.8 3.4 5. 5 -13.5 19.0 0. -6.3 6.1 6.4 14.2 -8.0 20.5 6.4 -0.6 6.1 -11.4 16.6 2.8 7.8 -5.7 18.0 -5.0 -1.6 4.3 5.3 0.8 -0.8 27.3 6.3 2.6 1.8 -10.9 17.9 -2.7 2 .2 -2.3 17.2 -5.1 0.6 5.4 5.2 4.2 -2.5 30.6 4.2 6.6 0. -3.2 12.1 7.4 0.5 0.6 9.1 -3.1 -1.6 6.0 8.5 0. -1.7 20.5 7.0 10.7 -4.0 0. 7.5 3.9 -2 .6 1.8 1.1 1.0 -1.6 4.3 9.0 8.5 -5.7 21.9 9.8 14.1 -5.7 2.6 8.0 6.8 -2.6 1.2 -3.2 -1.6 3.3 1.6 4.1 3.0 11.0 12.1 3.3 2.0 11.3 1.0 -13.0 -6.2 22.4 0. -24.2 -4.6 6.1 17.8 8.5 30.1 6.7 10.9 14.9 -0.8 6.1 12.4 -7.9 -7.9 0.8 21.9 8.1 -29.1 -2.7 7.2 11.5 11.7 46.3 3.0 10.8 13.8 0.4 9.0 12.7 -8.5 -5.4 6.7 19.9 25.1 -24.0 0.7 7.1 12.6 10.5 6.1 3.5 7.2 14.1 -0.4 10.6 18.3 -5.7 -5.5 7.8 21.6 29.9 -27.0 4.8 11.3 14.7 13.8 -38.1 0.5 4.7 13.9 2.0 6.4 14.8 0.3 2.3 5.0 22.7 21.3 -18.1 5.9 9.8 17.6 7.6 -51.7 5.6 5.2 13.3 0. 2.7 12.3 1.7 5.4 3.4 29.2 9.5 -13.4 2.7 11.5 13.5 10.0 -39.7 8.1 2.8 8.6 -0.4 1.9 5.7 -2.1 9.0 4.6 28.6 8.2 -1.0 3.4 9.3 13.0 18.2 -9.8 9.7 5.1 5.1 -2.8 2.3 6.4 -5.1 0.7 7.7 17.8 2.6 0. 1.0 14.1 13.5 29.8 11.7 2.0 5.1 6.3 0.4 3.1 4.6 -10.9 -5.4 8.9 8.4 -1.9 -5.8 0.7 15.4 24.7 34.2 38.1 1.9 11.4 7.6 4.1 8.7 4.6 -13.8 -5.4 8.0 6.0 -3.6 -6.4 -3.9 12.8 26.3 18.2 121.4 4.9 9.9 8.9 5.3 14.1 3.8 -17.9 -6.9 13.9 10.6 -6.8 -10.0 -1.6 15.3 27.6 5.8 series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user. This series contains revisions beginning with 1979. (JANUARY 1981) 105 G. Experimental Data and Analyses (D«C.) (Nov.) P T Year and quarter Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm business product1 (Index: 1967=100) Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm business sector 1 III 111111 (Nov.) (Mar.) P T PSS 1 1 1 1 ii 1 1 1 MMMTllTTllil Ratio scale 240 Components of BCD series 220 (Index: 1967=100) 200 1978 180.2 184.7 187.8 191.4 I Q.... II Q . . . Ill Q . . IV Q . . . 190.2 192.8 195.6 199.3 Implicit price deflator, business product, Q (index: 1967 = 100) 180 160 140 240 1979 I Q.... II Q . . . Ill Q . . IV Q . . . 206.0 212.1 217.3 221.8 195.1 200.3 204.7 208.4 1980 I Q.... II Q . . . Ill Q.. IV Q . . . 213.7 220.4 225.8 (MA) Manufacturing (Ratio) 200 labor cost, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q (index 1967 = 100) 180 160 228.2 236.3 240.5 (NA) Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars 2 Year and month 220 Merchant wholesalers (Ratio) 140 120 -J 100 Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)— Arithmetic scale Retail trade (Ratio) 2.1 1979 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June 1.76 1.78 1.72 1.86 1.78 1.84 1.33 1.35 1.30 1.33 1.30 1.31 1.39 1.38 1.38 1.41 1.42 1.45 July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. 1.84 1.86 1.87 1.87 1.91 1.90 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.30 1.29 1.30 1.46 1.42 1.37 1.41 1.40 1.37 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1980 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June rl.86 1.88 1.92 2.06 r2.08 r2.08 rl.28 rl.26 rl.36 rl.30 1.38 .37 1.34 rl.36 rl.39 rl.44 rl.45 rl.43 July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. r2.06 r2.05 rl.96 rl.93 pi. 92 (NA) 1.29 1.42 1.27 rl.29 pi. 38 (NA) rl.40 rl.39 rl.40 rl.41 pi. 37 (NA) 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and " N A " , not available. "Source: U . S . Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 Source: U . S . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 106 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes Basic data Series title (and unit of measure) LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours) . . . 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing 1 (per TOO employees) 8. New orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) 32. Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) . . . . 12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) 29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100) 36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dol., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. do! . ) . 92. Change in sensitive crude materials prices, smoothed2 (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed2 (percent) . . . . . . . . 106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) . . . . . 910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) . ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagri cultural payrolls (thousands) 51. Personal income less transfers in 1972 dollars (annual rate, billion dollars). . . . 47. Industrial production, total (index: 1967=100) . . 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (million dollars) 920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment1 (weeks) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total, in 1972 dollars (billion dollars) . . . 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding (million dollars) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent) 930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) Sept. 1980 Net contribution to index Oct. to Nov. 1980 p40.2 0.08 0.17 0.30 1.2 pi. 2 0.10 0.20 0.0 r34.07 P33.65 0.28 -0.16 -0.08 0.04 Nov. 1980 Dec. 1980 39.6 r39.7 r39.9 1.5 1.4 33.26 35.10 Nov. to Dec. 1980 Sept. to Oct. 1980 Oct. 1980 39 44 45 47 0.18 120.6 rl!8.8 el!8.8 NA -0.22 0.0 12.89 12.36 r!4.45 P14.05 -0.10 0.36 -0.08 126.3 107.7 109.5 -0.47 0.05 -0.33 r-6.69 r-6.40 p-0.40 rl.73 r2.45 r2.71 126.51 130.22 135.65 rO.89 rO.95 r819.9 99.8 0.08 NA NA 0.02 0.38 0.30 0.11 -0.18 133.48 0.18 0.25 -0.12 eO.96 eO.93 0.19 0.03 -0.12 r817.8 r816.9 P810.3 -0.10 -0.04 -0.37 r!34.9 r!35.7 r!37.7 P136.6 0.59 1.47 -0.80 90,384 r90,710 r90,917 p91,122 0.28 0.18 0.23 1,036.9 rl,045.4 rl,052.6 pi, 0 5 6 . 0 0.40 0.34 0.21 r!44.1 r!46.8 r!49.2 p!50.7 0.51 0.45 0.36 155,849 r!56,105 p!54,255 NA 0.04 -0.26 NA r!38.8 r!40.3 r!41.0 p!41.9 1.08 0.50 0.64 r!3.0 13.3 13.6 NA 2.35 13.5 -0.14 -0.14 0.07 r256.12 r256.05 P255.60 NA -0.01 -0.08 NA r200.7 r200.1 r200.8 p201.7 -0.09 0.11 0.21 12.23 13.79 16.06 20.35 3.03 4.41 0.33 0.39 165,306 r!67,790 170,782 p!74,267 r!3.75 r!3.60 P13.49 NA r!64.2 r!68.2 r!75.3 P200.3 -0.52 2.44 -0.38 4.22 12.51 0.67 NA 14.26 NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the March 1979 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 106107) for weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated. series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement. series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span. Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor for the leading index is 0.099; for the coincident index, -0.164; for the lagging index, -0.170. 2 This 3 107 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns riMi QRTRS . FROM REF. PEAK 30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars CURRENT QRTR. ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR -1 SERIES 30 ANN. RATE B I L . DOL. -0.7 IV/79 0 -0.9 1 2 3 1.3 11/80 -5.0 HI/80 -0.2 IV/80 ul MONTHS FROM REF. PEAK Actual data (percent) 36. Net change in inventories on x hand and on order, smoothed full EB + 30 1/80 + 20 CURRENT MONTH AND ACTUAL DATA YEAR 0 SERIES 36 l ANN. RATE BIL. DOL. -9.77 1/80 1 2 3 4 -11.95 -10.25 -6.19 -6.84 2/80 3/80 4/80 5/80 5 6 7 8 -13.22 -17.71 -14.15 -6.69 6/80 7/80 8/80 9/80 9 10 -6.40 -0.40 + 10 -10 -20 10/80 11/80 -30 -40 104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed 1 QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. REF. FROM ACTUAL AND PEAK 1/80 DATA YEAR -1 1501.9 -2.6 -2.0 -0.8 • 1550 MONTHS FROM REF. PEAK • 1450 0 +6 +12 +18 + 24 +30 +36 1 4 6 3 . 3 11/80 1471.9 HI/80 1490.1 IV/80 + 0.8 + 0.6 CURRENT MONTH ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR 0.51 1/80 0.67 0.80 0.76 0.68 2/80 3/80 4/80 5/80 + 0.2 0.62 6/80 7/80 8/80 9/80 0.0 0.95 0.96 0.93 10/80 11/80 12/80 -5 9 10 11 + 0.4 Months from reference peaks NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the December 1980 issue. ^his series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 108 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis + 1.0 1/80 SERIES 104l PERCENT 0 -J + 1.2 SERIES 50 ANN. RATE BIL. DOL. -0.8 1490.6 IV/79 11iiiIniii n in Illinium Nil ii 11 n n In in -6 0 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 Months from reference peaks G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued 11111111II1111II1111111111111111111111111111111 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding I Devi- Actual ations data from for reference current peaks cycle MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH AND REF. FROM ACTUAL DATA YEAR PEAK 1/80 910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators ations from reference peaks SERIES 72 MIL. DOL Percent Percent +25 • 195,000 +20 +15 • 180,000 + 10 +5 • 165,000 0 O.P 159215 1/80 1 1.9 162201 1.8 162074 1.9 162280 2 3 4 -0.1 159033 2/80 3/80 4/80 5/80 5 6 7 8 -0.0 159211 0.7 160299 2.3 162818 3.8 165306 6/80 7/80 8/80 9/80 167790 170782 174267 174862 10/80 11/80 12/80 1/81 9 10 11 12 5.4 7.3 9.5 9.8 + 15 +10 +5 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH REF. FROM ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR PEAK 1/80 SERIES 910 1967=100 ""5 •150,000 -10 -15 •135,000 0 0. P 134.7 1/80 1 2 3 4 -0.4 -2.4 -6.6 -8.8 134.2 131.4 125.8 122.8 2/80 3/80 4/80 5/80 5 6 7 8 -8.1 -4.9 -3.0 0.1 123.8 128.1 130.6 134.9 6/80 7/80 8/80 9/80 9 10 11 0.7 2.2 1.4 135.7 137.7 136.6 10/80 11/80 12/80 -15 CURRENT MONTH ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR -20 MONTHS FROM REF. PEAK 77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales, mfg. and trade SERIES 77 RATIO 1973 1.75 1.70 1.65 9 10 1.59 1/80 1.60 1.66 1.71 1.75 2/80 3/80 4/80 5/80 1.74 1.69 1.73 1.64 6/80 7/80 8/80 9/80 in ii in i ii Minium Illinium limilmi 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 Percent +10 +5 SERIES 920 1967=100 1 2 -0.5 -1.8 3 4 1/80 -3.7 -5.6 145.4 143.4 140.7 137.9 2/80 3/80 4/80 5/80 5 6 7 8 -6.5 -6.4 -6.5 -5.0 136.6 136.7 136.6 138.8 6/80 7/80 8/80 9/80 9 10 11 -4.0 -3.5 -2.9 140.3 10/80 141.0 11/80 -10 -15 141.9 12/80 Months from reference peaks NOTE: 920. Composite index of 4 coincident indicators 1.64 10/80 1.66 11/80 0. P 146.1 1.50 -10 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH REF. FROM ACTUAL AND PEAK DATA YEAR 1/80 1.60 1.55 -5 Minium HIMliiinliinilinnlimilmii -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 Months from reference peaks For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the December 1980 issue. 109 ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue (page numbers) Series number Charts Tables Historical Series data escriptions (issue date) issue date) A Accession rate, manufacturing Agricultural products, exports Anticipations and intentions Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl Consumer sentiment index Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Inventories manufacturing and trade Dl New orders, manufacturing, Dl Prices selling manufacturing Dl Prices, selling retail trade, Dl Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl Sales net manufacturing and trade Dl Automobiles Expenditures personal consumption Imports of automobiles and parts 2 604 16 56 61 92 8/80 8/80 8/68 61 970 58 974 975 971 976 978 977 972 973 24 38 22 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 67 76 65 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 10/80 10/80 8/80 10/80 10/80 10/80 10/80 10/80 10/80 10/80 10/80 11/68 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 55 616 22 56 65 92 9/79 8/80 10/69* B Balance of payments-See International transactions. Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding Bank loans to businesses, net change Bank rates-See Interest rates. Bank reserves Free reserves Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve Bonds-See Interest rates. Borrowing-See Credit. Budget-See Government. Building-See Construction. Business equipment, industrial production Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, D 1 Business incorporations Business inventories-See Inventories. Business loans-See Bank loans. Business saving 72 112 15,35 32 73 72 93 94 33 33 72 72 12/80 1?/80 9/80 9/80 29 76 61 970 14 12 13 13,25 24 24 38 33 12,23 23 67 67 67 76 72 65 65 8/80 1/80 10/80 10/80 10/80 3/80 3/80 295 46 82 11/79 11/72 11/72 11/72 4/69 li/68 11/68* c Canada-See International comparisons. Capacity utilization Manufacturing (BEA) Manufacturing (FRB) Materials . . . Capital appropriations, manufacturing Backlog Newly approved Newly approved, Dl Capital investment-See Investment, capital. Capital investment commitments, Cl Cash flow corporate constant dollars Cash flow, corporate, current dollars Civilian labor force-See also Employment. Employment Employment as percent of population Total Unemployed Coincident indicators, four Composite index Composite index rate of change Diffusion index Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded . . Commercial and industrial loans outstanding Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change . Compensation Compensation, average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector Compensation, average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector percent changes Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector, percent changes Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes Earnings, real average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes . Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions life of contract Wages and salaries, mining, manufacturing, and construction 83 82 84 20 20 20 64 64 64 9/79 9/79 9/79 97 11 965 24 24 37 66 66 75 10/80 10/80 10/80 914 35 34 11 29 29 60 70 70 9/80 9/79 9/79 1/72' 1/72 442 90 441 37 51 18 51 18,51 89 62 89 62,89 3/80 2/80 3/80 2/80 4/72* 920 920c 951 940 9 72 112 10 39 36 11 23 15,35 32 60 1/81 1/81 12/80 9/80 12/80 12/80 12/80 11/75* 74 60 66 73 72 345 49 87 11/80 10/72* 4/72* 4/72* il/72 11/72 345c 280 50 45 87 82 11/80 11/79 10/72* 10/69 64 30,47 70,83 9/79 10/69* 346 49 88 11/80 10/72* 346c 50 88 11/80 10/72* 340 49 87 10/80 6/72* 340c 50 87 10/80 6/72* 341 49 87 10/80 6/72* 341 c 348 349 50 50 50 87 88 88 10/80 11/79 11/79 6/72* 6/72* 6/72* 53 19 63 4/80 Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Composite indexes Coincident indicators Four coinciders Four coinciders, rate of change Ratio to lagging indicator index Lagging indicators Six laggers Six laggers, rate of change Leading indicators Capital investment commitments Inventory investment and purchasing Marginal employment adjustments Money and financial flows Profitability Twelve leaders Twelve leaders rate of change Construction Building permits new private housing Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial bldgs. . . Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales .... Gross private domestic fixed investment Nonresidential, as percent of GNP Nonresidential structures constant dollars Nonresidential, total, constant dollars Residential as percent of GNP . . . Residential, total, constant dollars Housing starts , Consumer finished goods-See Wholesale prices. Consumer goods and materials, new orders Consumer goods, industrial production Consumer installment debt Debt outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Consumer prices-See also International comparisons. All items, index Food, index Food, percent changes Consumer sentiment, index Consumption expenditures-See Personal consumption expenditures. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dol. . Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dol. . . Corporate bond yields Corporate profits-See Profits. Costs-See Labor costs and Price indexes. Credit Bank loans to businesses, net change Borrowing, total private Commercial and industrial loans outstanding Consumer installment debt Debt outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans delinquency rate Mortgage debt net change Crude materials— See Wholesale prices. Charts Tables 920 920c 940 10 39 11 60 930 930c 10 39 914 915 913 917 916 910 910c 11 11 11 11 10 39 29 9 69 Historical Series descriptions data (issue date) issue date) 1/81 1/81 9/80 11/75* 60 1/81 1/81 11/75* 60 60 60 60 60 60 9/80 9/80 9/80 9/80 9/80 1/81 1/81 13,25 23 24 67 66 67 8/80 12/80 3/80 4/69 248 87 86 249 89 28 47 25 25 47 25 25 83 67 67 83 67 67 11/79 9/79 9/79 11/79 9/79 3/80 10/69* 8 75 12,21 22 64 65 7/80 12/79 66 113 95 39 35 32 15,35 33 73 72 73 72 11/80 11/80 8/79 . 10/80 10/72 10/72 320 320c 322 322c 58 49 49,59 49 49 22 84,95 84,95 84 84 65 5/80 5/80 5/80 5/80 8/80 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 11/68* 20 10 116 12,23 23 34 66 66 73 7/80 7/80 11/80 9/68' 7/64 112 110 72 32 32 15,35 72 72 73 12/80 11/79 12/80 11/72 7/64 11/72 66 113 95 39 33 35 32 15,35 33 32 73 72 73 72 71 11/80 11/80 8/79 10/80 4/80 10/72 10/72 525 564 548 517 53 55 53 53 90 91 90 90 5/80 10/79 8/80 5/80 39 32 33 12,21 72 64 10/80 10/80 11/72 12/74 970 965 951 974 963 967 38 37 36 38 36 37 10/80 10/80 12/80 10/80 9/80 5/80 11/68* 966 37 962 975 952 950 964 36 38 36 36 37 971 968 976 978 977 960 972 973 961 38 37 38 38 38 37 38 38 36 76 75 74 76 74 75 79 75 78 74 76 74 74 75 77 76 75 76 76 76 75 76 76 74 77 n 60*" 5/75; 9/68* 10/69* 6/72" 11/72 11/72 D Debt-See Credit. Defense Military prime contract awards National defense purchases New orders, defense products Obligations incurred Deficit-See Government. Deflators-See Price indexes. Delinquency rate consumer installment loans Deliveries, vendor performance Diffusion indexes Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Capital appropriations, manufacturing Coincident indicators Employees, manufacturing and trade Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls Industrial materials prices Industrial materials prices, components Industrial production Industrial production components Initial claims State unemployment insurance Inventories, manufacturing and trade Lagging indicators Leading indicators New orders durable goods industries New orders, durable goods industries, components New orders, manufacturing Prices 500 common stocks Prices, selling, manufacturing Prices selling retail trade Prices, selling, wholesale trade Profits, manufacturing Profits net manufacturing and trade Sales, net, manufacturing and trade Workweek mfg production workers Workweek, mfg. production workers, components Disposable personal income-See Income. NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts. *The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 110 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Current issue (page numbers) Series number 10/69* il/68* 4/69* 12/80 11/80 10/80 12/80 12/80 9/80 6/69* 11/68* 10/80 12/80 10/80 10/80 10/80 10/79 10/80 10/80 9/80 11/68* 5/69* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* 11/68* ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Curren issue (page numbers) Series number Charts Tables Historical Series data escriptions [issue date) issue date) E Earnings-See Compensation. Employment and unemployment Accession rate, manufacturing Civilian labor force total Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments, rate of change Employees in mining, mfg., and construction Employees manufacturing and trade Dl Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Employees on private nonag payrolls Dl Employment, ratio to population Employment, total civilian Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Initial claims. State unemployment insurance, Dl Layoff rate, manufacturing Marginal employment adjustments, Cl Overtime hours, mfg. production workers Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years old Participation rate, females 20 years and over Participation rate, males 20 years and over Part-time workers for economic reasons Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities Quit rate, manufacturing Unemployed both sexes 16-19 years old Unemployed, females 20 years and over Unemployed full-time workers Unemployed, males 20 years and over Unemployment average duration Unemployment rate 1 5 weeks and over Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly Unemployment rate, total Unemployment, total civilian Workweek, mfg. production workers Workweek mfg production workers components Workweek, mfg. production workers, Dl Equipment-See Investment, capital. Exports-See Foreign trade and International transactions. 2 441 16 51 61 89 8/80 3/80 8/68 4/72* 48 17 61 9/80 8/68* 48c 40 974 41 963 90 442 46 60 5 962 3 913 21 453 452 451 448 42 4 446 445 447 444 91 44 45 43 37 1 39 17 38 14,17 36 18 51 17 17 16 36 12,16 11 16 51 51 51 51 17 16 51 51 51 51 15,18 18 18 18 18,51 12,16 9/80 9/80 10/80 9/80 9/80 2/80 3/80 11/80 2/80 7/80 11/80 8/80 9/80 8/80 3/80 3/80 3/80 3/80 2/80 8/80 3/80 3/80 3/80 3/80 3/80 2/80 8/30 2/80 2/80 8/80 8/68* 961 36 62'" 76 62 74 62 89 61 61 61 74 61 60 61 89 89 89 89 62 61 89 89 89 89 62 62 62 62 62,89 61 77 74 9/80 F Federal funds rate 119 Federal Government-See Government. Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from 94 Final sales in constant dollars 213 Financial flows, and money, Cl 917 Fixed investment-See Investment, capital. Fixed weighted price index, NIPA 311 Fixed weighted price index, percent changes, NIPA 311c Food-See Consumer prices. Foreign trade-See also International transactions. Balance on goods and services 667 Balance on merchandise trade 622 Exports, merchandise adjusted exc military 618 Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid 602 Exports of agricultural products 604 Exports of goods and services, constant dot., NIPA .... 256 Exports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA 252 Exports of goods and services, exc. military 668 Exports of nonelectrical machinery 606 Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military 620 Imports, merchandise, total 612 Imports of automobiles and parts 616 Imports of goods and services, constant dot., NIPA 257 Imports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA 253 Imports of goods and services, total 669 Imports of petroleum and products 614 Net exports, goods and services, constant dol., NIPA 255 Net exports, goods and services, current dol., NIPA . . . 250 Net exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA 251 France-See International comparisons. Free reserves 93 34 72 11/80 33 40 11 72 80 60 9/30 10/79 9/80 48 48 84 84 11/79 11/79 57 57 57 56 56 44 44 57 56 57 56 56 44 44 57 56 44 44 47 93 93 93 92 92 82 82 93 92 93 92 92 82 82 93 92 82 82 83 7/80 7/80 7/80 8/80 8/80 11/79 11/79 7/80 8/80 7/80 8/80 8/80 11/79 11/79 7/80 8/80 11/79 11/79 11/79 33 72 9/80 G Goods output in constant dollars Government budget, NIPA Federal expenditures Federal receipts Federal surplus or deficit State and local expenditures State and local receipts State and local surplus or deficit Surplus or deficit, total Government purchases of goods and services Federal constant dollars Federal, current dollars Federal, percent of GNP National defense State and local, constant dollars State and local, current dollars State and local percent of GNP Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars 20 63 9/79 502 501 500 512 511 510 298 . 52 52 52 52 52 52 46 90 90 90 90 90 90 83 9/79 9/79 9/79 10/79 10/79 10/79 11/79 263 262 265 564 267 266 268 261 260 43 43 47 55 43 43 47 43 43 81 81 83 91 81 81 83 81 81 11/79 11/79 11/79 10/79 11/79 11/79 11/79 11/79 11/79 49 11/68* 8/68 4/72* 12/74 6/69' 6/69* 8/68* 12/74 4/72" Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue (page numbers) Series Charts Gross business product Fixed weighted price index Fixed weighted price index percent changes Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit Gross national product GNP constant dollars GNP constant dollars differences GNP. constant dollars, percent changes GNP current dollars GNP, current dollars, differences 48 48 30 84 84 70 11/79 11/79 9/79 19,40 10/79 10/79 10/79 10/79 10/79 10/79 7/80 9/79 11/79 11/79 10/79 10/69* 10/69* 10/69* 10/69 10/69 10/69 31 '" 20 48 48 40 63,80 80 80 80 80 80 71 63 84 84 80 46 60 17 17 61 61 11/80 2/80 12/74 21 1 16 12,16 8/80 8/80 12/74 8/68 311 311c 68 GNP ratio to money supply Goods output in constant dollars Implicit price deflator Implicit price deflator percent changes . . . Per capita GNP constant dollars Gross private domestic invest.-See Investment, capital. Tables Series Historical descriptions data (issue date] issue date) 50 50b 50c 200 200b 200c 107 49 310 310c 217 39* 40 7/68 ' 10/69* 10/69* 10/69 H Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising ratio to unemployment Hours of production workers, manufacturing Average weekly overtime Average workweek ... Average workweek, components Average workweek D l . . Housing Housing starts Housing units authorized by local bldg permits Residential GPDI constant dollars Residential GPDI percent of GNP . 961 36 61 61 77 74 28 29 89 249 25 13,25 25 47 67 67 67 83 3/80 8/80 9/79 11/79 6/72 4/69 310 310c 48 48 84 84 11/79 11/79 10/69* 10/69* 345 49 87 11/80 10/72* 345c 280 64 50 45 30,47 87 82 70,83 n/8o 11/79 10/72* 10/69 10/69* 346 49 88 11/80 10/72* n/80 10/72* 8/79 11/79 11/79 10/79 10/79 10/79 10/69 10/69* 10/69 10/69 10/69 9/80 io/69* I 4/72 6/69 4/72 4/72* 8/68 Implicit price deflator GNP Implicit price deflator GNP percent changes Imports— See Foreign trade and International transactions. Income Compensation, average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector Compensation, average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector, percent changes Compensation of employees . ... ... Compensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, 11/73 nonfarm business sector Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector, percent changes Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income .. Corporate profits with 1 VA and CCA Corp. profits with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income . Disposable personal Income, constant dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol. . . Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy ... Earnings, average hourly, production workers, 5/69* private nonfarm economy, percent changes 5/69* Earnings, real average hourly, production workers private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, production 5/69' workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes 5/69* Income on foreign investment in the U.S Income on U S investments abroad 5/69* Interest net 5/69* Interest net percent of national income National income Personal income constant dollars 5/69' Personal income current dollars 5/69* Personal income, less transfers, constant dollars Personal income, less transfers, constant dols. rate of chg. Personal income ratio to money supply 5/69" Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA 10/69* Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, percent of national income . . 11/72 Rental income of persons with CCA Rental income of persons with CCA, pet. of nat'l. income Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions life of contract Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction .... Incorporations new businesses 7/68* 7/68* Industrial materials prices components 7/68* Industrial production - See also International comparisons. Business equipment 10/69 11/73 10/69 10/69* 10/69* 11/73 10/69 10/69* 10/69 Durable manufactures . Nondurable manufactures Total Total components Total Dl Total rate of change . . . Installment debt -See Credit. Insured unemployment Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance, Dl . . . Avq. weekly insured unemployment rate 9/79 346c 95 286 287 225 224 227 50 15,35 45 47 40 40 40 88 73 82 83 80 80 80 340 49 87 10/80 6/72* 340c 50 87 10/80 6/72* 341 49 87 10/80 6/72* 341c 652 651 288 289 220 52 223 51 5k 108 282 50 57 57 45 47 45 19 40 14,19 39 31 45 87 93 93 82 83 82 63 63 63 10/80 7/80 7/80 11/79 11/79 10/79 2/80 1/80 10/80 10/80 6/80 11/79 6/72* 5/69* 5/69* 10/69 10/69* 10/69 283 284 285 348 349 53 13 23 47 45 47 50 50 19 23 28 11/79 c 10/69* 10/69 10/69* 6/72* 6/72* 967 37 83 82 83 88 88 63 65 69 79 75 76 75 73 74 47 24 22 20 20 14,20,58 966 47c 37 39 5 962 45 16 36 18 71 82 67 65 63 63 63,94 78 75 61 74 62 n/7 » 11/79 11/79 11/79 4/80 3/80 5/80 7/68* 10/69 4/69' 5/80" 4/69* 1/80 12/79 12/79 12/79 9/80 11/68 12/80 9/80 7/80 11/80 8/80 6/69 6/69* 6/69 NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts. *The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown. 111 ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income Interest rates Bank rates on short-term business loans Corporate bond yields Federal funds rate Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields Prime rate charged by barrks Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields Intermediate materials-See Wholesale prices. International comparisons Consumer prices Canada index Canada, percent changes France index France, percent changes Italy index Italy percent changes Japan, index Japan percent changes United Kingdom, index United Kingdom, percent changes United States, index United States, percent changes West Germany, index West Germany, percent changes Industrial production Canada France Italy Japan OECD, European countries United Kingdom United States West Germany Stock prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany International transactions-See also Foreign trade. Balance on goods and services Balance on merchandise trade Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid Exports of agricultural products Exports of goods and services, exc. military Exports of nonelectrical machinery Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military Imports merchandise total Imports of automobiles and parts Imports of goods and services, total Imports of petroleum and products Income on foreign investments in U S Income on U S investments abroad Inventories Business inventories, change, constant dollars Business inventories, change, current dollars Business inventories, change, percent of GNP Finished goods, manufacturers' Inventories on hand and on order net change Inventories to sales ratio, mfg. and trade (deflated) .... Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl Manufacturing and trade constant dollars Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change Manufacturing and trade Dl Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg., change Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new Capital appropriations manufacturing new, 01 Capital investment commitments, Cl Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Construction expenditures, business and machinery and equipment sales Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment constant dollars Fixed investment, current dollars Inventories, business, change in-See Inventories. Nonresidential, total constant dollars Nonresidential total percent of GNP Producers' durable equip., nonresid., constant dol. Residential total constant dollars Residential total percent of GNP Structures nonresidential constant dollars Total constant dollars Total, current dollars New orders, capital goods, nondefense, constant dollars New orders, capital goods, nondefense, current dollars Current issue (page numbers) Series number Charts Tables Historical Series data descriptions (issue date) (issue date) 288 289 45 47 82 83 11/79 11/79 10/69 10/69* 67 116 119 118 117 109 114 115 35 34 34 34 34 35 34 34 73 73 72 73 73 73 72 73 8/79 11/80 11/80 11/80 11/80 11/80 11/80 11/80 12/74 7/64 17/73 7/64 7/64 11/73 7/64 7/64 Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Plant and equipment Business expenditures new Business expenditures new 01 Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Investment, foreign Income on foreign investments in U S . Income on U S investments abroad Italy-See International comparisons. .. Charts ... Tables Historical Series descriptions data (issue date) (issue date) 61 970 20 10 24 38 12,23 23 67 76 66 66 10/80 10/80 7/80 7/80 9/68' 652 651 57 57 93 93 7/80 7/80 5/69* 5/69* 68 62 63 26 30 15,30 30 29 70 70 70 70 9/79 12/79 7/80 7/80 7/68 71/68 10/72 930 930c 952 3 10 39 36 12,16 60 1/81 1/87 12/80 8/80 11/75* 910 910c 950 14 104 10 39 36 33 13,31 60 74'" 72 71 7/81 1/81 12/80 10/80 6/80 913 78 n 27 60 68 9/80 8/80 38 26 68 8/80 8 84 12,21 20 64 64 7/80 9/79 917 11 60 9/80 104 105 85 106 102 107 108 33 118 117 73,31 31 31 13,31 31 31 31 32 34 34 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 73 73 6/80 6/80 6/80 6/80 6/80 7/80 6/80 4/80 11/80 11/80 23 23 12,21 12,23 23 53 21 21 8/80 8/80 7/80 7/80 7/80 8/80 7/80 7/80 37 38 66 66 64 66 66 90 64 64 77 75 76 9/80 10/80 11/68* 25 25 25 47 67 67 67 83 9/79 9/79 9/79 17/79 10/69* 517 721 53 58 90 94 5/30 12/80 49 62 358 370 370c 83 82 84 21 20 15,30 50 50 50 20 20 20 16 63 70 88 88 88 64 64 64 61 9/79 12/79 11/68 11/68* J Japan-See International comparisons. 59'" 96 96 95 95 96 96 95 95 95 95 84,95 84,95 95 95 723 726 727 728 721 722 47 725 58 58 58 58 58 58 14,20,58 58 94 94 94 94 94 94 63,94 94 12/80 12/80 12/80 12/80 12/80 12/80 9/80 12/80 743 746 747 748 742 19 745 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 6/79 6/79 6/79 6/79 6/79 6/79 6/79 667 622 618 602 604 668 606 620 612 616 669 614 652 651 57 57 57 56 56 57 56 57 56 56 57 56 57 57 93 93 93 92 92 93 92 93 92 92 93 92 93 93 7/80 7/80 7/80 8/80 8/80 7/80 8/80 7/80 8/80 8/80 7/80 8/80 7/80 7/80 30 245 247 65 36 77 915 70 71 31 975 78 26,42 42 47 27 13,26 27 11 15,27 27 26 38 27 68,81 81 83 68 68 68 60 68 68 68 76 68 9/79 11/79 11/79 8/80 8/80 1/80 9/80 12/79 12/79 9/80 10/80 8/80 38 26 68 8/80 97 11 965 914 9 24 24 37 23 66 66 75 60 66 10/80 10/80 10/80 9/80 12/80 69 24 67 8/80 243 242 42 42 81 81 11/79 10/79 86 248 88 89 249 87 241 240 25 47 25 25 47 25 42 42 67 83 67 67 83 67 81 81 9/79 11/79 9/79 9/79 11/79 9/79 10/79 10/79 27 23 66 8/80 24 23 66 8/80 733 733c 736 736c 737 737c 738 738c 732 732c 320 320c 735 735c 59*" 59*" 59'" 59"" 59 49 49,59 11/80 11/80 11/80 11/80 11/80 11/80 11/80 11/80 11/80 11/80 5/80 5/80 11/80 11/80 9/72* L 9/72* 10/72* 10/72* 10/72* 10/72* Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector .... Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Labor force-See Employment and unemployment. Lagging indicators, six Composite index Composite index rate of change Diffusion index Layoff rate manufacturing . Leading indicators, twelve Composite index Composite index rate of change . ... Diffusion index Liabilities of business failures Liquid assets, change in total Loans-See Credit. 9/72* 9/72* 9/72* 5/69* 5/69* 9/72* 10/72* 11/68 10/72* 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 74"' 61 8/68* 5/75* M Man-hours-See Employment and unemployment. Marginal employment adjustments Cl Materials and supplies on han'd and on order, mfg Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. change Materials, crude and intermediate-See Wholesale prices. Materials, industrial-See Price indexes. Materials, new orders for consumer goods and Materials, rate of capacity utilization Merchandise trade-See Foreign trade. Military -See Defense. Money and financial flows, Cl Money supply Liquid assets, change in total Money supply Ml Money supply Ml, percent changes Money supply M2 .... . Money supply M2 percent changes Ratio, GNP to money supply M1 Ratio personal income to money supply M2 Mortgage debt net change Mortage yields secondary market Municipal bond yields 10/72 10/72 7/64' 7/64 N n National defense-See Defense. 10/69 10/69* National Government-See Government. National income-See Income. 9/68 New orders, manufacturers' Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dol 27 24 Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dol Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars 8 Contracts and orders, plant and equip., constant dol. . . 20 2/69* Contracts and orders, plant and equip., current dol. . . . 10 2/69 548 Defense products 11/68* 7 Durable goods industries, constant dollars 6 Durable goods industries current dollars Components 964 Diffusion index New orders manufacturing Dl .. 971 Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars 88 Structures, constant dollars 87 Total constant dollars 86 248 Total percent of GNP 9/68* O Obligations incurred Defense Depart' .ciit OECD, European countries, industrial production Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders. 10/69* Output-See also Gross national product and Industrial production. Goods output constant dollars Labor cost per unit of . l'6/69* Per hour nonfarm business sector Per hour private business sector 10/69 Per hour, private business sector, percent changes Ratio to capacity manufacturing (BEA) Ratio to capacity manufacturing (FRB) Ratio to capacity, materials 9/68 Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing .... NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts. *The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 112 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Current issue (page numbers) Series 9/79" 9/79 9/79 8/80 9/68 9/68 9/68' li/68 6/68* 10/72* 10/72* 12/74 ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue (page numbers) Series number Charts Tables Series Historical data escriptions (issue date) issue date) Reserves, free Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDI . . . . Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP Residential structures-See Housing, -tetail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars P Participation rates, civilian labor force Both sexes, 1 6-1 9 years of age Females 20 years and over Males 20 years and over Personal consumption expenditures Automobiles Durable goods, constant dollars Durable goods current dollars Nondurable goods, constant dollars Nondurable goods current dollars Services, constant dollars Services, current dollars ' Total constant dollars Total, current dollars Total, percent of G NP Personal income-See Income. Personal saving Personal saving rate Petroleum and products, imports Plant and equipment-See also Investment, capital. Business expenditures for Business expenditues for, Dl Contracts and orders for, constant dollars Contracts and orders for current dollars Population, civilian employment as percent of Price indexes Consumer prices-See also International comparisons. All items index All items, percent changes Food, index Food percent changes Deflators, NIPA Fixed weighted, gross business product, index Fixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changes Implicit price deflator, GNP, index Implicit price deflator GNP percent changes Industrial materials Industrial materials components Industrial materials, Dl Labor cost price per unit of Sensitive prices, change in Stock prices-See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Wholesale prices All commodities, index All commodities percent change Consumer finished goods, index Consumer finished goods, percent changes Crude materials, index Crude materials, percent changes Intermediate materials, index Intermediate materials, percent changes Producer finished goods, index Price to unit labor cost nonfarm business Prices, selling Manufacturing Dl Retail trade, Dl Wholesale trade Dl Prime contracts, military Prime rate charged by banks Producer finished goods-See Wholesale prices. Producers' durable equipment, nonresid., GPDI Production-See Industrial production and GNP. Productivity Output per hour, nonfarm business* sector Output per hour, private business sector Output per hour, private business sector, pet. changes . Profitability, Cl Profits Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars Corporate, after taxes, current dollars Corporate, after taxes, with I VA and CCA, constant dollar Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA, cur. dol. . . . Corporate with IVA and CCA Corporate, with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income . . . Manufacturing and trade, Dl Manufacturing Dl Per dollar of sales, manufacturing Profitability, Cl Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income Ratio, profits with IVA and CCA to corporate domestic income Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. inc. . 453 452 451 51 51 51 89 89 89 3/80 3/80 3/80 55 233 232 238 236 239 237 231 230 235 22 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 47 65 80 80 81 81 81 81 80 80 83 9/79 10/79 10/79 10/79 10/79 10/79 10/79 10/79 10/79 10/79 10/69* 292 293 614 46 46 56 82 83 92 11/79 11/79 8/80 10/69 7/68* 61 970 20 10 90 24 38 12,23 23 18 67 76 66 66 62 10/80 10/80 7/80 7/80 2/80 11/68 11/68* 320 320c 322 322c 49 49,59 49 49 84,95 84,95 84 84 5/80 5/80 5/80 5/80 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 5/69* 311 311c 310 310c 23 48 48 48 48 28 11/79 11/79 11/79 11/79 5/80 10/69* 10/69* 4/69 967 26 92 37 29 13,28 84 84 84 84 69 79 75 70 69 5/8o' 7/80 4/80 4/69* 19 968 13,28 37 69 75 9/79 12/80 5/69 5/69* 330 330c 334 334c 331 331c 332 332c 333 333c 26 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 29 85 85 86 86 85 85 86 86 86 86 70 6/80 6/80 5/80 5/80 6/80 6/80 6/80 6/80 6/80 6/80 7/80 6/69* 976 978 977 525 109 38 38 38 53 35 76 76 76 90 73 10/80 10/80 10/80 5/80 11/80 88 25 67 9/79 358 370 370c 916 50 50 50 11 88 88 88 60 9/8o" Unemployment Duration of unemployment, average Help-wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance, Dl . . . Layoff rate, manufacturing Number unemployed, civilian labor force Both sexes, 16-19 years of age Females, 20 years and over Full-time workers Males, 20 years and over Total unemployed 11/68* Quit rate, manufacturing 11/68* Unemployment rates 11/68* 1 5 weeks and over Insured, average weekly li/73 Total Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Durable goods industries Durable goods industries, change in United Kingdom-See International comparisons. 6/68* 10/72* 10/72* V 18 16 28 28 69 69 9/79 9/79 1/72 7/68 80 79 286 287 972 960 15 916 22 28 28 45 47 38 37 29 11 29 69 69 82 83 76 75 70 60 69 9/79 9/79 11/79 11/79 10/80 10/79 7/80 9/80 9/79 81 282 283 29 45 47 70 82 83 9/79 11/79 11/79 4 16 61 8/80 284 45 82 11/79 Q Quit rate, manufacturing R Rental income of persons, with CCA Rental income of persons, with CCA, percent of national income ... Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) 285 47 83 11/79 10/69 10/69 10/69 10/69* 9/68' Salaries-See Compensation. Sales Final sales, constant dollars Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Saving Business saving Government surplus or deficit , Gross saving, private and government Personal saving Personal saving rate Selling prices-See Prices, selling. Sensitive prices, change in State and local government-See Government. Stock prices-See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks Dl Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order . . . Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, change Surplus-See Government. Tables 11/72 93 89 249 33 25 47 72 67 83 9/80 9/79 11/79 59 54 22 22 65 65 6/80 6/80 213 40 80 10/79 69 57 56 973 77 59 54 24 14,22 22 38 27 22 22 67 65 65 76 68 65 65 8/80 1/80 1/80 10/80 1/80 6/80 6/80 295 298 290 292 293 46 46 46 46 46 82 83 82 82 83 11/79 11/79 11/79 11/79 11/79 92 13,28 69 4/80 19 968 78 13,28 37 27 69 75 68 9/79 12/80 8/80 38 26 68 8/80 114 115 34 34 72 73 11/80 11/80 7/64 7/64 91 60 5 962 3 15,18 17 16 36 12,16 62 61 61 74 61 3/80 2/80 7/80 11/80 8/80 6/69* 6/69* 8/68* 446 445 447 444 37 4 51 51 51 51 18,51 16 89 89 89 89 62,89 61 3/80 3/80 3/80 3/80 2/80 8/80 44 45 43 18 18 18 62 62 62 2/80 8/80 2/80 4/72 6/69 4/72 96 25 21 21 64 64 8/80 8/80 9/68 9/68 107 108 32 31 31 12,21 71 71 64 7/80 6/80 10/80 12/74 330 330c 334 334c 331 331c 332 332c 333 333c 92 1 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 13,28 12,16 85 85 86 86 85 85 86 86 86 86 69 61 6/80 6/80 5/80 5/80 6/80 6/80 6/80 6/80 6/80 6/80 4/80 8/80 36 77 74 9/80 10/69* 6/72' 9/68* 2/69' 11/68* 6/72 10/69 10/69 10/69 7/68* 5/69 5/69* T Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields 10/69 10/69* 11/68* Charts Series Historical descriptions data (issue date) issue date) S 10/69 10/69 Current issue (page numbers) Series u Velocity of money GNP to money supply Ml, ratio Personal income to money supply M2, ratio Vendor performance 4/72* W Wages and salaries-See Compensation. West Germany-See International comparisons. 3/69" Wholesale prices All commodities, index 7/68' All commodities, percent changes Consumer finished goods, index Consumer finished goods, percent changes 10/69 Crude materials indpx 10/69* Crude materials, percent changes Intermediate materials, index Intermediate materials, percent changes Producer finished goods, index Producer finished goods, percent changes Sensitive nrices change in Workweek of production workers, manufacturing Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, 10/69 components 10/69* Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl . . . . 961 6/69* 8/68" NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index, Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts. *The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown. 113 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among the series. "M" following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are referred to by number: Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3-U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (23,66) 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (M).—Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference Board (24,66) 12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (12,23,65) 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M).— American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source 4; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (32,71) 34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) 35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (29,70) 36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(13,26,68) Following the source for each series is an indication of the pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each series. 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (23,65) 37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (18,51,62,89) I-A. Composite Indexes 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (33,72) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM).-American Bankers Association (33,72) 910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 106) 913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments (includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (29,70) 914. Composite index of capital investment commitments (includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) 915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 92) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26, 80) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing (M).-Source 2 (26,68) 40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries—mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 3 (17,62) 41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey (M).-Source 3 (14,17,62) 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (17,62) 43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources 2 and 3(18,62) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks W.Stan da rd & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (18,62) 917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes series 104, 106, 110) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company (12,23,66) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).-U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (18,62) 920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (16,61) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).— The Conference Board (17,61) 930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes series 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, 109) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic income (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 1-B. Cyclical Indicators 1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (12,16,61,77) 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (16,61) 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).-Source 3 (28,69,79) 24. Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).—Source 2 (23,66) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64) 47. index of industrial production, total (M).—Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 48. Employee-hours in (M).-Source 3 nonagricultural establishments (17,39,61) 49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (20,63) 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1 (14,19,39,63) 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Sources 1 and 3 (29,70) 52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M).—Source 27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and 3 (23,66) 53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (19,63) 28. New private housing units started, total (M).-Source 2 (25,67) 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67) 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).— Source 1 (22,65) 7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and 3 (21,64) 30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).— Sources 1 and 2 (22,65) 8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and 3 (12,21,64) 31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (26,68) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (12,21,64) 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (12,16,61) 4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 5. Average weekly initial claims for insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Labor, Employment and Training seasonal adjustment by Bureau Analysis (16,61) unemployment Department of Administration; of Economic (16,61) 6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in current dollars (M).—Source 2(21,64,77) http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 114 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1 2 (19,63) (22,65) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M).— Sources 1, 2, and 3 (14,22,65) 58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (22,65) 59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 2, and 3 (22,65) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series 46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37) (M).—Sources 1, 2, 3, and The Conference Board (17,61) 84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).—Source 4 (20,64) 61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Source 1 (24,67) 86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M).—Sources 1 and 4 (15,30,70) 87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).Source 3 (30,70) 89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3 (18,62) 65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Source 2 (27,68) 91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (15,18,62) 66. Consumer installment credit (EOM).-Source 4; FRB seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (35,73) 88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (25,67) 92. Change in sensitive crude materials prices (PPI of crude materials less agricultural products) (smoothed) (M).Sources 1 and 3 (13,28,69) 93. Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus borrowings) (M).-Source 4 (33,72) 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (M).-Source 4 (33,72) 68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio of current-dollar compensation of employees to real gross corporate product (Q).-Source 1 (30,70) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (EOM).-Sources 1 and 4 (15,35,73) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3 (15,27,68) 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value, in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (M).—Source 4; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (15,35,73) 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (20,63) 74. Index of industrial production, manufactures (M).—Source 4 nondurable (20,63) 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).— Source 4 (22,65) 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (M).-Source 4 (24,67) 77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales (series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).— Sources 1, 2, and 3 (27,68) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2 (21,64) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).-The Conference Board (24,66) 102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71) 104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).—Sources 1 and 4 (13,31,71) (Q).-Source 1 (28,69) 82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).-Source 4 (20,64) 83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).Source 1 (20,64) 952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about 700 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (35,75) 961. Diffusion index of average workweek of production workers, manufacturing—20 industries (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (36,74,77) 962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).—Source 1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (36,74) 963. Diffusion index of number of employees on private nonagriculturai payrolls—172 industries (M).—Source 3 (36,74) 964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries—35 industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (37,75,77) 965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board (37,75) 966. Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (37,75,78) 967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials— 13 industrial materials (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (37,75,79) 970. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total—18 industries (Q).—Source 1 (38,76) 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml-B (Q).-Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).— Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source 4 (35,73) 110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Source 4 (32,72) 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) 81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).-Source 1 (29,70) (36,74) 106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4 (13,31,71) 80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (M).-Source 1 951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks— 53-82 industries (M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (37,75) (28,69) 79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars 950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components 105. Money supply Ml-B in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4 (31,71) 112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).—Source 4; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (32,72) 113. Net chance in consumer installment credit (M).-Source 4 (32,72) 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M).-Source 4 (34,72) 78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2 (27,68) (34,72) 1-C. Diffusion Indexes 85. Change in money supply Ml-B (M).-Source 4(31,71) 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).-Source 4 (35,73) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).—Source 2 (24,67) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The Bond Buyer (34,73) 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (34,73) 971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about 700 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and tradeabout 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).— Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).— Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about 700 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 115 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued 977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about 450 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 250 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) II-A. National Income and Product 30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (26, 42, 68, 81) 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (40,80) 213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (40,80) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dotlars (Q).— Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) 220. National income in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) 223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source 1 (40,63) 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).Source 1 (40,80) 225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) 247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1 248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential, as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits plus capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) (46,82) 293. Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of disposable personal income (Q).-Source 1 (46,83) 298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Source 1 (46,83) II-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity 310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q).— Source 1 (48,84) 311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product (Q).-Source 1 (48,84) 320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Source 3 (49,59,84,95) 322. Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Source 3(49,84) 330. Index of producer prices, all commodities (M).—Source 3 (48,85) 331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for further processing (M).-Source 3 (48,85) 332. Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3 (48,86) 333. Index of producer prices, capital equipment (M).— Source 3 (48,86) 334. index of producer prices, finished consumer goods (M).-Source 3 (48,86) 335. Index of producer prices, industrial commodities (M).— Source 3 (48,85) 340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Source 3 (49,87) 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 266. State and local government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (43,81) 267. State and local government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts, and seasonality (M).—Source 3 (49,87) 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) 280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) 348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes (Q).—Source 3 (50,88) 237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).— Source 3 (50,88) 238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) 239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).Source 1 (47,83) 230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, ail industries, in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (42,81) 116 (45,82) 286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1 (47,82) 287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,87) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,88) 370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,88) II-C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (18,51,62,89) (45,82) 441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey (M).— Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey (M).— Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued 445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) 47. United States, index of industrial production, total (M).-Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 570. Employment in defense products industries (M).— Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,91) 320. United States, index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Source 3 (48,59,84,95) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 448. Number employed, part-time workers for economic reasons, labor force survey (M).—Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 577. Defense Department personnel, military, active duty (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services (55,91) 578. Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hire employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91) 453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (54,91) 452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89) II-D. Government Activities 588. Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).-Source 2 (54,91) 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90) II-E. U.S. International Transactions 501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90) 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).— Source 2 (56,92) 502. Federal Government expenditures; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90) 604. Exports of agricultural products (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90) 511. State and local government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90) 512. State and local government expenditures; national income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).— U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 525. Defense Department military prime contract awards for work performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).- Source 2 (53,90) 557. Output of defense and space equipment (M).- Source (56,92) 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).— Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants (Q).-Source 1 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).— Central Statistical Office (London) (58,94) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (58,94) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).— Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt) (58,94) 726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (58,94) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Institute Centrale di Statistica (Rome) (58,94) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 612. General imports, total (M).-Source 2 721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (58,94) (57,93) 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (58,94) 732. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).— Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 733. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Statistics Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 735. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 736. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 737. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Institute Centrale di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 738. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 651. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The Financial Times (London) (59,96) 652. Income on foreign investments in the United States (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (59,96) 667. Balance on goods and services (Q).-Source 1(57,93) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (59,96) (54,91) 668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 559. Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products (EOM).-Source 2 (54,91) 669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (59,96) 561. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2 (54,91) II-F. International Comparisons 747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Institute Centrale di Statistica (Rome) (59,96) 4 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Tokyo Stock Exchange (Tokyo) (59,96) Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS Penalty for Private Use $300 FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID USDC WASHINGTON, D.C. PERMIT No. G-56