Full text of Business Conditions Digest : January 1971
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JANUARY 1971 DATA THROUGH DECEMBER A UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PUBLICATION BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST \ U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Bureau of the Census This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are— Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and review, Barry A. Beckman—Specifications for computer processing, Gerald F. Donahoe—New projects, Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods, Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data. (Telephone 440-1596) Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the Administrative and Publications Services Division. The cooperation of which provide data furnishing data are at the back of this various government and private agencies is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies indicated in the list of series and sources report. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Maurice H. Stans, Secretary Rocco C. Siciliano, Under Secretary Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee established by the Office of Management and Budget. The committee consists of the following persons: Julius Shiskin, Chairman Office of Management and Budget Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of the President BUREAU OF THE CENSUS George Hay Brown, Director Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director Edwin D, Goldfield, Assistant Director Edwin D. Goldfield, Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics, Department of Commerce Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor Benjamin D. Kaplan, Chief Statistical Indicators Division Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board ABOUT THE REPORT ANTICIPATIONS AND NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total of the final expenditures, which equals the total of the receipts, is known as gross national product, the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output. GNP is defined as the total market value of the final output of goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. CYCLICAL INDICATORS are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, the series on the NBER's list of cyclical indicators are classified by economic process and by cyclical timing. These indicators were selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. INTENTIONS data provide information on the plans of businessmen and consumers regarding their major economic activities in the near future. This information is considered to be a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication of the state of confidence concerning the economic outlook. A number of surveys by various organizations and government agencies have been developed in recent years to ascertain anticipations and intentions. The results of some of these surveys, expressed as time series, are presented in this report. Subscription price, including supplements, is $15 a year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $1.50. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. Its predecessor, Bus/ness Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and was based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government, and various components of the major aggregates to generate forecasts of gross national product and its composition. Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the content of Bus/ness Cycle Developments has been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to make it more generally useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's economy. Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have been published by their source agencies. A series finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data sources, is shown at the back of this report. Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce field office. New Features and Changes for This Issue. BCD METHOD OF PRESENTATION BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST JANUARY 1971 Data Through December Series ESI No. 71-1 Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Section A. National Income and Product... Section B. Cyclical Indicators... Section C. Anticipations and Intentions Section D. Other Key Indicators 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 Section E. Analytical Measures Section F. International Comparisons 3 3 How to Read Charts.^ How to Locate a Series Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 4 4 5 PART I. CHARTS NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Al A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 A9 Gross National Product National and Personal Income. Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Foreign Trade Government Purchases of Goods and Services Final Sales and Inventories ... National Income Components Saving 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Employment and Unemployment Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit 18 21 23 26 28 30 Selected Indicators by Timing Composite Indexes NBER Short List 34 36 ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Aggregate Series Diffusion Indexes 40 43 OTHER KEY INDICATORS Foreign Trade Balance of Payments and Major Components.. 46 47 Federal Government Activities 52 Price Movements. 54 ANALYTICAL MEASURES Actual and Potential Gross National Product Analytical Ratios Diffusion Indexes Rates of Change 56 57 59 61 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Fl F2 F3 Consumer Prices Industrial Production Stock Prices 62 63 64 PART II. TABLES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT A2 A3 A4 ABA7 A8 A9 Gross National Product National and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Foreign Trade Government Purchases of Goods and Services Final Sales and Inventories National Income Components Saving 65 65 66 66 67 67 67 67 68 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Bl B2 B3 Employment and Unemployment Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade Fixed Capital Investment 69 71 72 Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit 74 75 76 Selected Indicators by Timing Composite Indexes - 78 ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Aggregate Series Diffusion Indexes - 79 80 OTHER KEY INDICATORS Foreign Trade Balance of Payments and Major Components 82 83 Federal Government Activities Price Movements 85 86 ANALYTICAL MEASURES Actual and Potential GNP Analytical Ratios Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components 87 88 89 92 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Consumer Prices Industrial Production Stock Prices 98 99 100 APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See December issue) QCD and Related Measures of Variability 101 B. Current Adjustment Factors C. Historical Data for Selected Series D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (Not shown this month) 104 105 E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 110 Index—Series Finding Guide Titles and Sources of Series 113 115 ii NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE A limited number of Changes in this issue are as follows: changes are made from trme to time to incorporate recent findIngs of economic research, newly available time series, and revisions made by source agencies in concept, composition, comparability, coverage, 1 1. The diffusion indexes of Manufacturers new orders, durable goods industries (series D6), have been revised for the period January 1961 through June 1970. These revisions reflect recent changes in data on manufacturers1 shipments, inventories, and orders. Revised diffusion indexes reflecting these changes for the period July 1970 to date have been included in BCD since September 1970. seasonal adjustment metfiods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may result in revisions of data, additions or deletions of series, diatigei In placement of 2. The series on Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings (series 9) and Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (series 10) are being seasonally adjusted by the Census Bureau X-ll Seasonal Adjustment Method—not by the source agency as reported in the last issue. 3. The Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (series 29) has been revised for the period January 1967 to date to reflect a new seasonal adjustment. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Construction Statistics Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census. 4*. The series on Total U.S. foreign trade, excluding military aid (series 500, 502, and 512) have been revised for the year 1970, These revisions reflect the source agency's annual updating of the previous year!s statistics. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census. 5. Appendix C contains historical data for series 85, 98, 410, 412, 414, 416, 420a, 420b, 420c, 425a, 425b, 425c, 435, 850, 859, D23, D54, and D58. The February issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on February 26. iii series in relation to other series, changes in composition ol Indexes, etc, 4 CENSUS PROJECTS on economic fluctuations BUSINESS DIGEST CONDITIONS LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH DEFENSE INDICATORS COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS A monthly report for analyzing economic fluctuations over a short span of years. This report brings together approximately 600 monthly and quarterly economic time series in a form which is convenient for analysts whether their approach to the study of current business conditions and prospects is the national income model, the leading indicators, anticipations and intentions, or a combination of these. Other types of data such as foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices, and industrial production are included to facilitate a more complete analysis. Data are presented in charts and tables, and appendixes are included which provide historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability. Also, a computer tape containing data for most of the series in the report is available for purchase. A report for the study of economic fluctuations over a long span of years, 1860-1965. A monthly report for analyzing the current and prospective impact of defense activity on the national economy. This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned, prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A computer tape file of the time series included in the report is available for purchase. This report brings together the principal time series on defense activities which influence short-term changes in the national economy. These include series on obligations, contracts, orders, shipments, inventories, expenditures, employment, and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included are grouped in accordance with the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense order-production-delivery process. Most are monthly series, although a few are quarterly. This publication provides original and seasonally adjusted basic data in monthly, quarterly, and annual form. Charts and analytical tables are included to facilitate interpretation. IV The source statements for FORTRAN IV programs which are used by the Bureau in its analysis of time series are available from the Bureau on a single computer tape. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS.—Two variants of the Census computer program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place within a year. The X-l 1 variant is used for adjusting monthly data and the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. DIFFUSION INDEX PROGRAM.—A computer program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated diffusion indexes, and summary measures of the properties of each index. METHOD OF PRESENTATION THIS REPORT is organized into six major subject sections, as follows: A. 8. C. D. E. F. National Income and Product Cyclical Indicators Anticipations and Intentions Other Key Indicators Analytical Measures International Comparisons Each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction. Data for each of the above sections are shown both in Part I (charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1948 (except in section C where they begin with 1957); the tables contain data for only the last few years. Except for section F, most charts contain shading which indicates periods of recession in general business activity. In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several appendixes which present historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability. An index appears at the back of each issue. It should be noted that the series numbers used are for identification purposes only and do not reflect relationships or order. Seasonal Adjustments Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1. The charts for sections B and D include centered MCD moving averages for all series with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Reference Turning Dates The historical business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until after both the new reference peak and the new reference trough bounding the shaded area have been designated. This policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading of a current recession without including part of a new expansion. SECTION A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT The national income and product accounts, compiled by the Office of Business Economics (QBE), summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which equals the total of the receipts (mainly incomes), is known as gross national product (GNP). GNP is defined as the total market value of the final output of goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output. Gross national product consists of four major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services. Personal consumption expenditures is the market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the value of food, clothing, housing,, and finan- cial services received by them as income in kind. The total purchase cost is covered, including sales taxes. Home purchases are excluded, but the estimated rental value of owner-occupied homes is included. Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable equipment and private (as opposed to government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates are gross in the sense that there is no deduction for capital consumption. The inventory component measures the change in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost. Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports of goods and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both U.S. purchases of foreign output and the contribution made to production in the United States by foreign-owned resources. More detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in section D. Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net purchases from business and from abroad, payments to private nonprofit institutions for research and development, and the gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays of government enterprises, acquisitions of land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans, and interest payments to domestic creditors. A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP, covering durable and nondurable goods and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section A. Other major aggregates taken from the national income and product accounts are described below. National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods and services and accruing to the labor and property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, corporate profits and the inventory valuation adjustment, and net interest. Persona/ income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust funds, and private health and welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments to persons, less personal contributions for social insurance. Disposable personal income is the personal income available for spending or saving. It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments to general government. Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an accounting period.lt is the total of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government surplus or deficit, and capital consumption allowances. Most of the series in this section are on a current-dollar basis, but some are shown on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that the effects of price changes are eliminated. The implicit price deflator (computed by dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also shown. SECTION B CYCLICAL INDICATORS The business cycle is generally described as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it inevitable. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73 cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. The NBER employs a dual classification scheme which groups the indicators by cyclical timing and by economic process, and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system used in this section. The 73 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification and cyclical timing as the secondary basis. The major processes are divided into minor processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing classification takes into account a series' historical record of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach peaks or troughs before the corresponding turns in aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators usually reach their turning points after the turns in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has also specified a "short list" of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal indicators is drawn from the full list and provides a convenient summary of the current situation. The short list consists of 26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these are quarterly series; the rest are monthly. The short list is classified only by timing and is shown separately in chart B8. Included in this section are a number of composite indexes which provide simple summary measures of the average behavior of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according to its value in forecasting or identifying short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its weight, an equal opportunity to influence the index. Each index is standardized so that its average month-to-month percent change is 1 (without regard to sign). The composite indexes presented in this report are based on groups of indicators selected by timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, another of coincident indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. In addition, there are five indexes based on leading indicators which have been grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical trends of each group of indicators and the relative magnitude of their short-term changes. The index of 12 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that its long-run trend parallels that of the coincident index. This facilitates Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) Marginal employment adjustments <6 series) LEADING INDICATORS (37 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS (25 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Long-duration unemployment (1 series) LAGGING INDICATORS (11 series) II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE (8 series) III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (14 series) IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (10 series) VI. MONEY AND CREDIT (17 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) New investment commitments (8 series) Inventory investment and purchasing (7 series) Sensitive commodity prices <I series) Stock prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (4 series) Flows of money and credit (6 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Comprehensive wholesale prices (2 series) Bank reserves (2 series) Money market interest rates (4 series) Unit labor costs (2 series) Outstanding debt (2 series) Interest rates on business loans and mortgages (2 series) Comprehensive Backlog of investment commitments production (3 series) (2 series) Comprehensive income (2 series) Comprehensive consumption and trade <3 series) Investment expenditures (2 series) Inventories <2 series) comparisons among the leading, coincident, and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the leads of the leading index at business cycle peaks while lengthening them at troughs; it also reduces the variability of the leads and lags. SECTION C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Most businessmen and many individual consumers have some type of plans as to their major economic activities in the near future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication of the state of confidence concerning the economic outlook. In recent years, much progress has been made in compiling such information, and a number of surveys by various organizations and government agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The results of some of these surveys, expressed as time series, are presented in this section of the report. The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations. These data reflect only the respondents' anticipations (what they expect others to do) or intentions (what they plan to do), not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses may not be very reliable; that is, the plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many plans are subject to modification or even complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments. In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for example, the anticipations (or intentions) data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what has already occurred and hence appear to lag behind actual changes. Actual data are included in this section to indicate their historical relationship to the anticipations and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the description for section E. SECTION D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Many economic series are available which, although not included in the three main sections of the report, are nevertheless important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of such series, though by no means a com prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct measures of economic activity but which do have a significant bearing on business conditions. The foreign trade and payments series include data on imports and exports and their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts are shown. Some are charted in a manner which emphasizes the balance between receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports of goods and services, and income on U.S. investments abroad with payments on foreign investments in the United States. In addition, balances are shown for U.S. Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the private sector (banks and U.S. residents other than banks).i Finally, cumulative changes are shown for other components; for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets. Because these data are influenced by foreign as well as domestic conditions, the cyclical shading has been omitted from the balance-of-payments charts. The Federal Government activities series include Federal receipts and expenditures and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and product accounts, but are not shown in section A of this report. The defense series included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of the Census publication. The price movements series consist of consumer and wholesale price indexes and their major components. Additional data on prices and costs are shown in several other sections. SECTION E ANALYTICAL MEASURES This section begins by comparing gross national product in constant dollars with a measure of potential GNP. In effect, these two series reflect the relationship between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree to which potentially productive resources are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of Economic Advisers in the early 1960's, takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour. The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost per unit of output). There are, however, additional analytical ratios which have proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such ratios are shown in the second part of this section. The third part presents a selection of diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or 9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show recent developments. Most of the indexes are constructed from components of series shown in section B, and these indexes have the same identification numbers as the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical timing of the aggregates to which they relate. Recent data and directions of change for many of the components are shown in table E4. The final part (E5) presents, in chart form, rates of change for a selected group of economic series. Percent changes at annual rate are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for 1-quarter spans. SECTION F INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Because this report is designed as an aid to the analysis of U.S. business conditions, all previous sections are based on data which relate directly to that purpose. But many business analysts examine economic developments in other important countries with a view to their impact on the United States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which we have important trade relationships. Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price indexes measure an important sector of prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has been omitted from the charts. HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER. Basic Data (May) (Feb.) P T Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.*) Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("6" = June) •£ Roman number indicates latest ^/quarter for which data are / plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Dotted line indicates anticipated sy data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where an MCD moving average* is plotted. Parallel lines indicate a break in continuity (data not available, changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.). Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. The scales should be carefully noted because they show whether the plotted lines for various series are directly comparable. Scale shows percent of components rising. Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. *Many of the more irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages as well as their actual monthly data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted iy2, 2, or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD moving averages. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("6" = June) Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("I" — first quarter) Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. NOTE: Some of the charts of anticipations and intentions data (section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not conform to the above method of presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of 'Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated. Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data1 Series title Unit of measure 1968 1969 1970 Percent change 3dQ 4th Q IstQ 2dQ 3dQ 4th Q 1969 1969 1970 1970 1970 1970 o3 E IstQ to 2dQ 2dQ to 3dQ 3dQ to 4th Q 1970 1970 1970 GO A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Al. Gross Notional Product 200. 205. 210 215. 217. GNP in current dollars GNP in 1958 dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP in current dollars Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars Ann.rate,bil.dol. do 1958=100 Ann. rate, dol... do 865.0 707.2 122.3 4?299 3i515 931.4 727.1 128.1 4»582 3 ? 577 976.8 724.3 134.9 4»754 3t526 942.6 730.9 129.0 4»632 3 1 592 951.7 729,2 130,5 4»663 3t573 959.5 723.8 132.6 4 ? 690 3i538 971.1 724.9 134.0 4t734 3»534 985.5 727.4 135.5 4t791 3f536 990.9 721.3 137,4 4t802 3»496 -0.1 1.5 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.1 712.7 688.7 591.2 499.0 769.5 748.9 631.6 511.5 801.0 801.0 684.7 529.7 779.5 758.1 640.6 515.9 785.2 770.5 650.6 517,8 791.5 782.3 665.3 522.9 797.4 801.3 683.6 532.0 806.6 807.2 693.0 534.2 NA 813.4 696,9 529.8 0.7 2.4 2.8 1.7 1.2 0.7 1.4 0.4 2»939 3»108 3t333 3»148 3»188 3i252 3?333 3i369 3«378 2.5 1.1 2 1 480 2t5l7 2»579 2»535 2f537 2»556 2t594 2»597 2.568 1.5 0.1 Ann.rate,bil.dol . do do do do do . do . 535.8 452.3 577.5 467.7 616.8 477.2 582.1 468.7 592,6 471,7 603.1 474.0 614,4 478.1 622.1 479.6 627,6 477.1 84.0 53.8 30.2 90.0 58.2 31.8 89.4 61.2 28.2 89.5 57.9 31.6 90,8 58.3 32.5 89.1 60.2 28.9 91.9 61.5 30.4 91.2 61.3 29.9 85,4 61.9 23.5 230.2 221.6 245.8 241.6 264.7 262.7 248.1 244.5 252.0 249.8 258.8 255.2 262.6 259.9 265.8 265.1 271.7 270.5 1.9 0.9 3.1 2.2 5.2 1.5 1.8 do do do do do do 126.5 139.8 88.7 29.6 59.1 30.3 99.3 33.8 65.5 32.0 135.8 102.6 143.8 101.5 140.2 102.6 133.2 102.6 134.3 102.8 138.3 103.6 137.5 101.4 35.1 67.4 29.7 35.2 66.3 31.0 11.3 35,1 67.5 30.4 35.7 66.9 29.1 35.3 67.5 28.4 35.0 68.6 29.2 34.6 66.8 32.0 1.2 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.5 -0.8 1.4 0.2 -1.1 200 205 210 215 217 A2. National and Personal Income Ann. rate, bil. dol . National income current dollars. do Personal income current dollars. . do Disposable personal income, current dol . . . do Disposable personal income, constant dol. . Per capita disposable personal income, Ann. rate, dol... current dol lars 227. Per capita disposable personal income, do constant dollars 220. 222 224. 225. 226. NA 0.8 0.6 -0.8 0,3 -1.1 220 222 224 225 226 227 A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures 230. 231. 232. 233. 234 236. 237 Total, current dollars. Total constant dollars Durable goods, current dollars Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. . Automobiles current dollars Nondurable goods, current dollars Services current dollars. .... 1.3 0.3 -0.8 -0.3 -1.6 1.2 2.0 0.9 -0.5 -6.4 1.0 -21.4 2.2 2.0 230 231 232 233 234 236 237 A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment 240. 241 242. 243 244. 245 Gross private domestic investment, total. . . Fixed investment total nonresidential .... Fixed investment, nonresidential structures. Fixed investment producers' dur. equip.. . . Fixed investment, residential structures. . . Change in business inventories, total 2 . . . . 7.6 8.5 3.6 7.2 1.6 3.1 5.5 0.8 0.2 »1.1 0,9 '2.4 4.1 1.5 2.7 0.6 2.8 1.9 3.0 0.8 -0.8 1.6 2.8 2.4 -0.6 -2,1 -1.1 -2.6 9.6 -1.4 240 241 242 243 244 245 A5. Foreign Trade 250. Net exports of goods and services2. 252. Exports . .. 253 Imports do . do . do 2.5 1.9 3.6 2.6 2.6 3.5 4.1 4.2 50.6 48.1 55.5 53.6 62.3 58.7 58.3 55.6 58.8 56,2 61.1 57.6 62,8 58,7 62.8 58.6 62.6 59.9 do do do do 200.2 212.2 101.3 220.5 214.1 102.5 216.3 102,1 219.6 102.3 218.4 221.0 223.2 78.8 99.7 76.6 79.8 78.8 79.3 99.7 76.8 98.6 75.8 98.4 74.6 100.7 110.8 120.8 111.6 114.2 117.4 118.7 122.4 124.8 1.1 do 170.4 183.9 185.3 184.8 187.4 185.5 188.5 188.3 179.0 1.6 do do 5.7 252.5 6.4 267,7 -0.4 7.9 270,1 5.3 274.3 -0.3 -1.9 285.2 280,0 283,3 5.2 286.0 291.4 1.2 do 2.0 2.1 4.0 3.5 1.9 1,9 5,0 0.3 8.6 3.1 do do do do do 514.1 564.2 599.8 572.2 582.1 592.2 596.4 603.8 606.8 64.1 21.3 85.4 27.8 66.8 22.0 85.8 30.7 67.6 22.7 77.4 33.5 67.5 22.1 86.8 31.0 67.2 22.3 82.0 31.7 67.6 22.5 76.7 32.4 67.8 22.6 77.5 33.1 67.8 22.7 78.4 33.8 67.4 23.0 0.7 0.3 0.4 1.0 2.2 do' do 128.6 143.6 149*1 144.2 139.3 138.5 140,6 40.4 37.6 42.0 41.1 44.8 51.5 52.7 50.9 21.6 74.0 -7.3 18.5 78.9 19.7 79.4 15.4 80.7 14.3 83.6 14.1 85.0 86.5 8.7 84.3 -9.6 -10.9 -11.2 -7.u n.fl •su.n 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -1.5 -0.3 2.2 250 252 253 A6. Government Purchases of Goods and Services 260. 262 264. 266. Total Federal National defense State and local 270 Final sales durable goods 99.5 78.0 -0.5 -2.5 -3.2 1.2 -1.1 -1.3 3.1 1.0 -0.2 -1.6 2.0 260 262 264 266 A7. Final Sales and Inventories 271. Change in business inventories, durable goods2. . . 274 Final sales nondurable goods 275. Change in business inventories, nondur- 280. 282 284 286 288 A8. National Income Components Compensation of employees Proprietors' income Rental income of persons Corp profits and inventory va luation adj . .... . .. .. Net interest A9. Saving 290 Gross saving total ... 292 Personal saving . 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment 296 Capital consumption allowances . 298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2 . .. . .. . do.. El. Actual and Potential GNP 207. GNP sao (potential less actual)2 do do. do . NA 50.0 NA 8.0 7.1 13.6 82.1 -1.2 n.^ Q.U 99 .A 9Q.U xa.a -4.5 NA 34.5 NA NA NA aa . 1 -1.6 -0.6 15.0 5.1 1.8 -9.7 A-a -0.1 7.1 1.0 -4.7 1.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.1 1.5 2.3 -1.4 1.7 -0.3 R . e: -4,9 270 -9.7 1.9 271 274 8.3 275 0.5 280 282 284 286 288 -0.6 1.3 NA 2.1 NA -3.4 NA 1.8 NA 290 292 294 296 298 i a . o on-7 Basic data1 Unit of measure Series title 1969 1970 Percent change 2dQ 3dQ 4th Q 1970 1970 1970 Oct. 1970 Nov. Dec. 1970 1970 Oct. Nov. to to Nov. 1970 Dec. 1970 2dQ to 3dQ 3dQ to 4th Q 1970 1970 Series number Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con. B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS B7. Composite Indexes 810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj 3. 1967-100 do ito 117.3 119.7 125.0 115.2 120.8 131.3 114.4 121.5 130.7 115.5 121.0 131.9 115.1 118.8 131.7 114.1 118.7 132.5 114,8 118.1 131.5 116.4 119.6 131.1 0.6 -0.5 -0.8 1,4 1.3 -0.3 1.0 -0.4 0.9 -0.3 -1.8 -0.2 81( 82( 83( -1.9 81. 81' 81f 81< 81' LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS do do . ...» do do do 813 Marginal employment adjustments 816 Profitability 102.2 110.0 104.2 100.7 103.0 95.2 94.7 95.2 93.4 92.2 106.7 103.2 106.1 103.4 106.6 102.9 106.8 101.7 105.8 101.6 94.8 94.8 98.3 94.9 96.1 94.8 39.4 39.6 39.7 94.6 NA 93.7 93,7 100.0 102.8 39.9 39.7 NA 93.1 106.7 102.7 95.0 107.9 100.8 NA 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.1 -2.2 2.0 1.1 -1.9 "0.1 NA 0.5 0.5 -0.5 0.0 2.8 0.2 -1.2 1.2 NA B1. Employment and Unemployment LEADING INDICATORS Marginal Employment Adjustments: *1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. .. Hours 21. Avg. weekly overtime hours, production 40.6 do Ann.rate,thous .. Per 100 employ.. *5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State 4 unemployment insurance (inverted ) . . Thousands 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted4) 2. • Per 100 employ.. 39.8 3.0 39.6 0.5 3.6 5? 149 4.7 3.0 NA 4.0 4i064 4.1 2.9 NA 4.0 2.7 NA 3.7 2.8 NA 3.6 2.7 NA 3.7 2,6 NA 3.8 194 1.2 295 1.8 314 1.9 297 1.8 322 2.0 341 2.2 333 2.0 291 1.7 2.3 0.2 319 228 NA 174 250 180 NA 168 NA 149 NA 146 NA 148 NA 152 NA 1,4 -0.1 NA 0.1 0.3 -0.1 NA 0.1 12.6 0.3 -0.5 -0.1 NA -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 2 NA -0.3 5.4 0.1 -8.4 -0.2 NA ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Job Vacancies: 49. Nonagri. job openings unfilled Thous., EOP.... 1957-59=100.... Comprehensive Employment: 48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments. Ann. rate, billion man-hours Millions do 42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities. . . Comprehensive Unemployment: *43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted4) 2 . . .Percent 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment do rate (inverted4) 2 40. Unemployment rate, married males 4 2 do (inverted ) 139.1 138.6 139.1 70.3 74.3 70.7 75.2 70.9 74.9 138.3 70.5 75.1 137.2 70.2 75,2 137.0 70.2 75.4 137.0 70.1 75.2 137.5 70.4 75.1 0,0 NA 2.7 -6.7 NA -11.3 4 4 0.4 0,4 -0,6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.4 4 4 4 -0,1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 3.5 5.0 4.8 5.2 5.8 5.6 5.8 6.0 2.1 3.5 3.5 3.9 4,2 4.4 4.4 3.9 1.5 2.6 2.5 2.8 3,2 3.1 3.2 3.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 -0.1 -0.3 Ann.rate.bil.dol. . do 1957-59=100.... 931.4 727.1 172.8 976.8 724.3 971.1 724.9 169.3 985.5 727.4 990.9 167.6 Ann.rate,bil.dol.. do 748.9 801.0 198.0 801.3 198.3 807.2 do do do If 246 NA 922.9 973.2 351.5 NA i» 278 968.1 366.2 123.6 NA NA 355.1 195 94.9 93.5 26.0 74.2 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 4 -0.4 -0.3 4 -0.3 -0,4 4 -0.2 -0.2 4 LAGGING INDICATORS Long Duration Unemployment: *44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and do B2. Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Comprehensive Production: *200 GNP in current dollars *205 GNP in 1958 dollars *47. Industrial production o Comprehensive Income: 53 Wages salaries in mining mfg constr.. Comprehensive Consumption and Trade: 57 Final sales 194.5 167.9 198.7 721.3 162.6 813.4 195,6 1.5 0.3 162.3 161.6 163.9 -0.4 809.9 812.6 193.6 817.8 199.4 -0.1 193.7 0.3 1.4 -0.8 0.6 3.0 0.7 0.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 It 299 NA It275 It261 NA -1.1 NA 980.0 369.6 986.8 NA 366.4 362.1 NA -1.2 NA 114.2 112.4 111.7 269,9 NA NA 111.4 266.2 256,9 280.7 NA NA 353.8 367.2 350.4 342.0 186 192 195 179 348.1 202 361.1 205 87.5 98.2 88.4 78.6 82.4 74.6 0.5 -0.8 -3.2 0.8 -1.6 20 20 4 5 5 NA 0.7 NA 5 5 5 NA NA 1 1 B3. Fixed Capital Investment LEADING INDICATORS Formation of Business Enterprises: *12. Index of net business formation 1957-59=100.... Ann. rate, thous, . 273.2 New Investment Commitments: *6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . .Ann.rate.bil.dol.. 368.2 1957-59=100.... 8. Construction contracts, total value 194 Ann.rate.bil.dol.. *10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. . . 95.7 do 11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing 29.8 do 24. New orders, producers' cap. goods Indus . 78.7 Ann.rate.mil.sq. 9. Construction contracts, commercial ft floor space . . 905 and industrial buildings 28. New private housing units started, total.. Ann. rate, thous. . It 486 1957-59=100.... »29. New bldg. permits, private housing. 110.7 NA 76.8 769 1»451 110.4 94.6 28.1 77.9 707 767 It286 It512 105.0 113.6 81.22 79.56 22.65 91.4 0.3 9.3 NA NA 1.8 3.7 1.5 -10.0 12.8 12,2 NA 78.6 654 It 753 132.2 It583 127.1 648 It 688 124.4 693 It 987 145.1 79,05 78.69 78.88 79.05 621 4,8 4.3 6,6 -2.1 -9,5 6.9 17,7 16.6 -1.6 1.4 3.8 3.2 1.2 8.1 5.0 -4.6 8.5 '14.7 17.6 8.2 1.6 -3.4 NA 0.9 1 1 2 15.9 16.4 2 2 -0.6 9 9 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Backlog of Investment Commitments: 96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries 5 Bil.dol., EOF... do 97. Backlog of capital approp., mfg.5 86.21 23.85 79.05 NA 22.85 NA 0,2 0.2 -2.0 -0.9 NA Basic data1 Series title Unit of measure Percent change Nov. Oct. 1969 1970 2dQ 1970 3dQ 1970 4th Q 1970 Oct. 1970 Nov. 1970 Dec. 1970 to to Nov. 1970 Dec. 1970 3dQ to 4th Q 2dQ to 3dQ 1970 1970 Series number Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con. B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS--Con. B3. Fixed Capital Investment— Con. LAGGING INDICATORS Investment Expenditures: *61. Business expend., new plant and equip . .Ann.rate,bil.dol. . 69. Machinery and equipment sales and do 75.54 80.51 80.22 81.88 a81.72 92.20 NA 94.25 96.34 NA 2.1 93.27 93.81 NA 0.6 NA 3.8 6,2 NA 2.4 NA 2.2 -0.2 NA 61 69 B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment LEADING INDICATORS Inventory Investment and Purchasing: 245. Change in business inventories, all industries2. *31. Change in book value, manufacturing Ann. rate, billion dollars 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting Percent. . Ann. rate, billion dollars 20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories of materials, supplies2. 26. Buying policy, production materials., commitments 60 days or longer2 ©. . . . Percent 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting do slower deliveries @ ; 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods Ann. rate, billion industries2. dollars 8.5 3.6 3.1 5.5 4.1 12.2 NA 4.9 10.6 NA 50 46 44 46 45 46 48 42 2 1.2 NA -1.1 0.7 NA 3.6 3.6 NA 0.0 2.4 -1.4 245 5.7 NA 31 -6 2 -1 37 NA 1.8 NA 20 63 55 57 51 53 54 54 52 0 -2 -6 2 26 65 51 64 47 37 38 36 36 -2 0 -17 -10 32 -6.6 -2.1 2.3 1.9 12.7 2.6 4.5 25 2,6 -7.2 -9.2 -10.4 -0.4 LAGGING INDICATORS Inventories: *71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories5. . Bil.dol., EOP... 65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories do 164.9 NA 167.4 170.0 NA 170.4 170.9 NA 0.3 NA 1.6 NA 71 31.64 NA 33.09 33.70 NA 34.18 34.38 NA 0.6 NA 1.8 NA 65 111.8 114.3 117.3 111.8 108,7 109.9 109.3 106.8 -0.5 -2.3 -4.7 -2.8 23 84.4 84.3 90.0 -0.1 6.8 -0.6 9.5 19 3.4 NA 16 B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits LEADING INDICATORS Sensitive Commodity Prices: *23. Industrial materials prices © 1957-59=100.... Stock Prices: *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks @ 1941-43=10 97.8 83.2 79.2 78.7 86.2 Profits and Prof it Mar gins: *16 Corporate profits after taxes 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, Ann.rate,bil.dol. . 48.5 44.4 43.9 45.4 NA 15. Profits(after taxes) per do 1. of sales, mfg.2 *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg Percent Cents 1957-59=100.... 10.2 4.8 99.0 NA NA 97.4 9.0 4.2 98.1 9.1 4.1 97.4 NA NA 96.1 96,6 96.7 94.9 0,1 -1.9 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 NA NA -1.3 22 15 17 Comprehensive Wholesale Prices: 55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities @. 1957-59=100.... do 58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®. 112.6 113.3 116.9 117.6 116.5 117.1 117.1 118.1 118.4 118.7 118.3 118.6 118.3 118.7 118.7 118.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.5 55 58 Dollars 1957-59=100.... 0.763 114.4 0.809 120^7 0.802 119.4 0.811 121.2 NA 123.5 122.8 122.7 125.1 -0.1 2.0 1.1 1.5 NA 1.9 68 62 Ann. rate, percent do Ann.rate.bil.dol. . 2 do * 1 13 Chanse in consumer installment debt *.. do do -1.0 3.1 19,9 8.1 7.4 91.9 11.2 5.3 NA NA 1.1 NA 9.8 5.8 17.7 4.6 -1.2 84.1 18.6 6.1 22.3 4.1 11.4 84.2 12.6 3.4 NA NA -1.7 NA 10.8 1.1 24.5 -1.0 -1.4 9.1 2.8 21.2 -3.6 -3.7 17.8 6.2 NA NA 0.0 -1.7 1.7 -3.3 -2.6 -2.3 8.7 3.4 NA NA 3.7 8.8 0.3 4.6 -0.5 12.6 0.1 -6.0 -2.7 NA NA -13.1 NA 98 85 33 113 112 110 1.14 1.89 1.80 2.62 1,55 1.74 1.44 1.46 17.2 -1.4 -45.6 40.8 14 1.81 NA 1.81 1.90 NA 1.90 NA NA NA NA -0.09 NA 39 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS LAGGING INDICATORS Unit Labor Costs: 68. Labor cost per unit of gross product, *62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg B6. Money and Credit LEADING INDICATORS Flows of Money and Credit: 98. Change in money supply and time Credit Difficulties: do 14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.4) © 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans 4 2 5 Percent, EOP. . . . (inverted ") ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Bank Reserves: 93. Free reserves (inverted4)2 © Mi II ion dollars... -871 -619 -733 -745 -197 -208 -305 -77 97 -228 12 -548 93 Money Market Interest Rates: 114 Treasury bill rate 2 <§) 116 Corporate bond yields2 © Percent 6.69 8.06 6.12 5.72 6.44 9.05 6.58 6.35 6.75 9.44 6.82 6.82 6.38 9.06 6.65 6.33 5.36 8.75 6.27 5.93 5.93 9.14 6.59 6.39 5.29 8.97 6.24 5.93 4.86 8.13 5.97 5.46 -0.64 -0.17 -0.35 -O.46 -0.43 -0.84 -0.27 -0.47 -0.37 -0.38 -0.17 -0.49 -1.02 -0.31 -0.38 -o.uo 114 116 115 117 117. Municipal bond vields2 <S> do do do Basic data 1 Series title Unit of measure Percent change Oct. 1969 1970 2dQ 3dQ 4th Q 1970 1970 1970 Nov. 1970 Oct. 1970 Dec. 1970 Nov. to to Nov. 1970 Dec. 1970 2dQ to 3dQ 3dQ to 4th Q 1970 1970 Series number Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con. B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B6. Money and Credit— Con. LAGGING INDICATORS Outstanding Debt: Bil.dol., EOP... 66. Consumer instal Iment debt 5 do *72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding 3 . . . 96.2 80.8 80.8 98.3 78.1 99.4 81.4 80.8 99.3 80.9 99.0 80.6 80.8 -0.3 -0.4 Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages: *67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 2(g). . . Percent do 118. Mortgage yields residential 2 © 8.21 8.29 8.48 9.03 8.49 9.12 8.50 9.06 8.07 8.76 8,97 8.90 8.40 -0.07 NA NA NA NA 0.2 1.1 4.2 66 72 -0.06 -0.43 -0.30 67 118 0.01 -0.50 NA -0.7 D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS Dl . Foreign Trade 500. Merchandise trade balance2 502 Exports excluding military aid 506. Export orders, durable goods except motor vehicles 508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery 512. General imports Ann. rate,bil.dol.. . do . ... do 1957-59=100 .... Ann. rate, bil.dol. . 1.3 37.3 14.7 256 36.0 2.8 42.7 NA NA 39.9 4.0 3.3 43.7 43.3 16.0 17.2 267 277 1.5 42.8 NA NA 39.7 40.0 -5.80 -7.98 -3.42 -8.19 NA NA 41.2 2.1 0.0 44.5 41.6 16.6 16.3 225 42.3 239 41.5 2.4 42.2 NA NA 39.8 -2.1 2.4 -0.7 -1.8 500 -6.5 1.4 -0.9 -1.2 502 -1.8 NA NA 6.2 -1.9 7.5 3.7 0.8 -4.1 NA NA 3.0 506 508 512 NA NA 520 522 D2. U.S. Balance of Payments 520 Liquidity balance basis 2 522. Official settlements basis 2 do do -7.01 2.70 NA NA 2.38 -0.21 D3. Federal Government Activities 600. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts 2 601. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts 602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts 264. National defense purchases 616. Defense Dept. obligations total 621 Defense Dept obligations procurement 647. New orders defense products industries 648. New orders defense products 625. Military contract awards in U S do 9.3 -10.8 -1402 -Ht8 NA do 200.6 195.4 196.7 194.9 NA do 191.3 do 78.8 do 81.1 do 20.9 do 47.2 do . ... 23.1 do 35.5 206.2 210.9 1957-59=100 .... 127.7 do 113.0 206.7 209.5 75.8 78.2 19.2 49.2 27.7 31.0 74.6 47.0 23.5 33.6 76.8 77.1 18.2 44.0 20.5 30.4 NA 117.1 134.6 116.8 76.6 76.6 NA NA NA NA 2.4 -0.9 -2.0 -1.3 87.6 26.7 NA NA 15.0 53.4 48.0 24.8 38.8 76.2 17.4 47.4 25.4 42.8 49.0 24.2 34.4 47.8 24.7 39.1 -19.6 136.1 117.6 NA 117.8 137.4 117.8 137.8 117.7 NA 117.8 -0.1 72.3 3.4 -4.7 -2.4 2.1 11.8 35.1 601 1.4 602 264 616 621 647 648 625 NA NA -2.4 -10.5 2.0 13.7 600 -1.6 1.4 5.5 NA NA NA NA 25.2 D4. Price Movements 781 Consumer prices all items © 750. Wholesale prices, all commodities @ 0.3 NA 0.1 1.1 0.7 NA 0.2 781 750 E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES E2. Analytical Ratios 850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 2 . . 851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade Ratio 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.' do durable goods industries 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods 1957-59=100 .... 854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable personal income Ratio 855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings do 858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. . 1957-59=100 856. Real average hourly earnings, production workers manufacturing • 1957-59 dollars.. 859. Real spendable average weekly earnings, do nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. • 857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing 2 © • . Percent 83.7 -1.8 78.0 76.2 1.53 NA 1.57 1.57 NA 1.60 1.63 NA 1.9 NA 3.15 NA 3.00 2.86 NA 2.87 2.92 NA 1.7 NA 113.9 113.6 111.3 120.8 116.0 116.5 113.8 112.9 0.060 0.073 0.075 0.076 0.073 0.127 134.2 NA NA 0.065 134.6 NA 136,1 NA NA 2.50 NA 2.48 2.50 NA 77.40 5.0 77.62 4.9 78.28 5.0 NA 4.9 NA 4.8 -0.3 -2.0 -3.9 0.0 -4.7 -2.3 1.3 NA NA NA 2.45 2.46 NA 77.05 76.84 NA NA* 0.4 -0.3 NA NA 1.1 NA NA 851 NA 852 -0.8 853 -3.9 854 NA NA 855 858 0.8 NA 856 0.3 NA 859 857 -0.1 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. a = anticipated. EOP = end of period. 850 NA -0.1 NA = not available, 1 In many cases, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are those published by the source agencies or they-are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages or totals of the data as shown in part II. Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. 3 Index for the latest month excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available. 4 Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. 5 End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart Al GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (May) (Feb.) P T 1950 51 52 53 54 55 Current data for these series are shown on page 65. JANUARY 1971 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME 1950 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 65. 10 JANUARY 1971 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 1950 51 52 (July) _P (Aug.) J_ 53 54 (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 66. JANUARY 1971 11 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A4 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC 1950 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 INVESTMENT (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 66. 12 JANUARY 1971 itcn Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT FOREIGN TRADE (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T +10-1 +5- (H 7570- 6560- 55-; 50- 457065605550454035- 30J32 S 25-' 20- 15- 10J 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 67» BCII JANUARY 1971 13 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 1950 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. 14 JANUARY 1971 BCII Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES 1950 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) (July) (Apr.) P 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. JANUARY 1971 15 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A8 NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS 1950 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P I (July) (Apr.) 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on pages 67 and 68. 16 JANUARY 1971 ItCII Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT SAVING (July) (Aug.) P T 1950 51 52 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 68. JANUARY 1971 17 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Leading Indicators (July) (Aug.) P T 1950 51 52 53 54 (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) P T 59 60 61 it 1 tti Ii i tti tit tti iii iii 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 69. 18 JANUARY 1971 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (July) (Aug.) P T 1950 51 52 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70. ]|| JANUARY 1971 19 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con. (luly) (Aug.) (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T Lagging Indicators 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 70. 20 JANUARY 1971 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart B2 PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE Roughly Coincident Indicators 1950 51 52 P T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected. Current data for these series are shown on page 71. JANUARY 1971 KCII 21 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con. (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 1000950900850800750- 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected. Current data for these series are shown on page 71. 22 JANUARY 1971 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Section B Chart B3 FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Leading Indicators 1950 51 52 P T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 1972 *This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on page 72, BCI» JANUARY 1971 23 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con. Leading Indicators—Con. (May) (Feb.) P T 1950 70 71 1972 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency. Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73. 24 JANUARY 1971 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators .agging Indicators 1 1 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. Current data for these series are shown on page 73. JANUARY 1971 25 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Leading Indicators (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) _P T 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 74. 26 JANUARY 1971 BCI» Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con. Leading Indicators—Con. (July) P (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T 100-1 perce it of c impann $ repoi jng $1 wer de 75- 50- 25J 0-- _2 J Lagging Indicators 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected. Current data for these series are shown on page 74. ItCII JANUARY 1971 27 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Leading Indicators (July) P (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T cos:, mm factun g (inde : 1957 59-100 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 75. 28 JANUARY 1971 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (July) (Aug.) (May) (Feb.) (July) (Apr.) 959085J Lagging Indicators 0.85-1 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 75. BCII JANUARY 1971 29 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MONEY AND CREDIT Leading Indicators 1950 51 52 (July) (Aug.) 53 54 (July) (Apr.) 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 30 JANUARY 1971 BUI CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Section B MONEY AND CREDIT—Con. Leading Indicators—Con. (July) (Apr.) (July) (Aug.) (May) (Feb.) P T P 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 76. JANUARY 1971 31 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MONEY AND CREDIT—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (July) (Aug.) P I (May) (Feb.) (July) (Apr.) P -1.5-1 -1.0-0.50-1 8-1 7654J 10n ** ^ 8- ^ 765J 7-1 v^ ^ /^> 5- 6- r^ "V^* X— 543- ^- f f i i *t 11 1950 51 2H1 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 77. 32 JANUARY 1971 s CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Section B MONEY AND CREDIT—Con. Lagging Indicators (July) (Aug.) P 1950 51 52 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 77. JANUARY 1971 33 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing COMPOSITE INDEXES (July) (Aug.) P 1950 51 (July) (Apr.) (May) (Feb.; P T 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 78. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. 1 Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators. 34 JANUARY 1971 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con. 1950 51 52 (July) (Aug.) 53 54 (July) (Apr.) 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 78. IBMl JANUARY 1971 35 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing NBER SHORT LIST Leading Indicators 1950 51 52 (July) (Aug.) 53 54 (July) (Apr.) 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 72, and 73. 36 JANUARY 1971 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing NBER SHORT LIST—Con. Leading Indicators—Con. 1950 51 52 (July) (Aug.) 53 54 (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) P 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 75, and 76. BUI JANUARY 1971 37 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing NBER SHORT LIST—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (July) (Aug.) P T 1950 51 52 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T_ 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on pages 70 and 71. 38 JANUARY 1971 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing NBER SHORT LIST—Con. Lagging Indicators 1950 51 52 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) _P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on pages 70, 73, 74, 75, and 77. licit JANUARY 1971 39 ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS AGGREGATE SERIES (July) P (May) P (Apr.) T (Feb.) T ; il?SISIlili!S^^ 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 * 67 68 69 70 1971 Current data for these series are shown on page 79. Digitized for 40 FRASER JANUARY 1971 BCII Section C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS AGGREGATE SERIES—Con. (July) P (Apr.) T (May) P (Feb.) T 410, Manufacturers' sales, total value, Q (bil. dol.) 412, Manufacturers' inventories, total book value, Q (bil. dol.) 414. Condition ef manufacturers' inventories: percent considered high less percent considered low, Q (percent) of manufacturers' capacity: percent in<ide(|u<!te less percent considered Q [percent] 1957 58 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 1971 Current data for these series are shown on page 79. JANUARY 1971 41 Section C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS AGGREGATE SERIES-Con. W) P (May) P (Apr.) T (Feb.) T compared IB income a year ag& Q households reporting no change to family income (percent) s*~*\ Brcerrt of households reportiig higher family income (percent) 'ercent of households reporting tower family income (percent) changes to income of households, Q M ean probability of {3) Mean probability of increase to family income (percent) (b) Increase less decrease (percent) (c) Mean probability of decrease to family income (percent) (arm. rate, mH. cam] Actual, 2-ouarter moving avg. X (d) Antic^atrons as percent of actual data (percent) 1957 58 59 60 61 62 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 1971 Current data for these series are shown on page 79. 42 JANUARY 1971 itcn Section C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS DIFFUSION INDEXES (July) P (May) P (Apr.) T (Feb.) T New orders, manufacturing (44 span)1 .*•*»«,.. manufacturing and trade (44 span)1 manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)' 1957 58 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 1971 Current data for these series are shown on page 80. ^his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. JANUARY 1971 43 Section C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con. (July) P (May) P (Apr.) T (Feb.) T J450. Level 9! inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 Jelling prices, manufacturing and trade [4-Q spat)1 Selling prices, manufacturing (441 span] Selling prices, wholesale trade (44 span) Selling prices, retail trade (44 span)1 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 69 70 1971 Current data for these series are shown on page 80. T This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 44 JANUARY 1971 ItCII Section C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con. (July) P (May) P (Apr.) T (Feb.) T ness expenditures for new plant and equipment, alt industries (1-Q span) (a! Actual expenditures 100- 50- 0-1 100-1 50- 0-1 100-1 50- +0.5-1 0- -0.5- 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 1971 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. JANUARY 1971 45 OTHER KEY INDICATORS 1950 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. 46 JANUARY 1971 ltd* Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS 1950 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) P T 59 60 61 62 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960 except for series 520. *The 1970 figures for series 520, 522, 525 and 527 include $217 million allocation of Special Drawing Rights. BM) JANUARY 1971 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Includes unilateral transfers and errors and omissions. 47 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS -Con. (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr.) P (May) (Feb.) T P T Major Components, Except Military Grants of Goods and Services-Con. 48n 44- 530. iquid I Jbilitie; to all foreigrers, ou stand! j at et d of p riod 24- 20- 16- 12- 532 Liquid and ce tail no ilkiuid foreig officii I age ;tandigat eidof feriod 8- \ 4J at end ofpe^it 534. US. off :ial •\ 20- 16- 12-1 i 11 i ii 111 ill 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 11 t i i i 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. End of year figures are used prior to 1960. 48 JANUARY 1971 ItCII Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. (July) (Aug.) _P T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 68-. 64- 60- 56- 52- 484448- 44- 40- 36- 32- 28- 24- 2016- 12- 4J 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960. ItCII JANUARY 1971 49 OTHER KEY INDICATORS Section D BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T 12 i 0J 4- 0- 8- 4- . 012- 8- < 4- 0- 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to 1960. 50 JANUARY 1971 ItCII Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. (July) P (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T +8- +4- 0-1 +4- 0-1 0- -4- 4-4 T 75. Bi iking nd oth r capr al tran: action , net 0- 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to 1960. BCD JANUARY 1971 51 Section D i Chart D3 1950 51 52 OTHER KEY INDICATORS FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P. T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 85. 52 JANUARY 1971 110 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con. (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 100-1 9080706050- 765- 3.22 S 2- 6l 54- 3- 1J 51 3- 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 85. IBM! JANUARY 1971 53 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS PRICE MOVEMENTS 1950 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P !_ (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 86. 54 JANUARY 1971 licit OTHER KEY INDICATORS Section D PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con. 1950 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) _P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 86. BCII JANUARY 1971 55 ANALYTICAL MEASURES ACTUAL AND. POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (July) (Aug.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 380-i 1950 51 58 52 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 68 69 70 71 1972 1 Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 4th quarter 1970. 56 BCI» •fe,4 JANUARY 1971 Section E ANALYTICAL MEASURES ANALYTICAL RATIOS (July) (Aug.) P T 1950 51 52 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 88. JANUARY 1971 57 Section E ANALYTICAL MEASURES ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con. 1950 51 52 (July) (Aug.) 53 54 (May) (Feb.) (July) (Apr.) 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 88. 58 JANUARY 1971 KCIt INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Section E DIFFUSION INDEXES Leading Indicators (July) (Aug.) P . T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 280260240220200180160140- 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 '"This is a copyrighted series used by permission: it mav not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. Current data for these series are shown on pages 89 and 90. ltd* JANUARY 1971 59 Section E ANALYTICAL MEASURES Chart E3 DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (July) (Aug.) P (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) T P T 10050- 100-, 50- 0- 100-, 500- 100-, 50- 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 91. 60 JANUARY 1971 BCII Section E ANALYTICAL MEASURES RATES OF CHANGE (July) P (May) P (Apr.) T (Feb.) T 200. ft) GNP in current dollars (1-Q span) ttiP It constant doMars..M *wl Index Of § coincident 'indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, §0] 41. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments 55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities |seas. adj.) Index of consumer prices, all items (seas, adj.) fppfr 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 1971 To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Index—Series Finding Guide,* pp, 113 and 114 JANUARY 1971 61 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart Fl CONSUMER PRICES (July) (Aug.) P T 1950 51 52 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 98. 62 JANUARY 1971 Section F ANALYTICAL MEASURES INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1950 51 52 (July) (Aug.) 53 54 (July) (Apr.) 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 99. JANUARY 1971 63 Section F INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS STOCK PRICES 1950 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1972 Current data for these series are shown on page 100. 64 JANUARY 1971 BCII NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Year and quarter 200. Current dollars a. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) b. Difference (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 205. Constant (1958) dollars c. Percent change at annual rate a. Total 210. Implicit price deflator b. Difference c. Percent change at annual (Ann. rate, rate bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) a. Total b. Difference (Index: 1958=100) (Index: 1958-100) c. Percent change at annual rate 1968 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 834-9 858.1 875.8 891.4 +19.0 +23.2 +17.7 +15.6 +9.6 +11.6 +8.5 +7.4 693.5 705.4 712.6 717.5 +9.9 +11.9 +7.2 +4.9 +5.9 +7.1 +4.2 +2.8 120.4 121.6 122.9 124.2 +1.0 +1.2 +1.3 +1.3 +3.5 +4.3 +4.2 +4-5 +16.2 +16.1 +18.9 +9.1 +7.4 +7.3 +3.4 +3.9 722.1 726.1 730.9 729.2 +4.6 +4-0 +4.8 -1.7 +2.6 +2.2 42.7 -0.9 125.7 127.2 129.0 130.5 +1.5 +1.5 +1.8 +1.5 +4.7 +5.0 +5.6 +4-9 +7.8 +11.6 +U-4 Pf5.4 +3.3 723.8 724.9 727.4 P721.3 -5.4 +1.1 +2.5 p-6.1 -2.9 +0.6 +1.4 P-3.3 132.6 134.0 135.5 P137.4 +2.1 +1.4 +1.5 Pfl.9 +6.4 +4.3 1969 907.6 923.7 942.6 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 951.7 1970 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 959.5 971.1 985.5 P990.9 +4.9 +6.1 Pf2.2 +4-6 Pf5.7 1971 First quarter... Second quarter . Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT-Con. Year and quarter 1 NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME 215. Per capita 217. Per capita 220. National GNP, constant income in curGNP, current dollars (1958) dollars rent dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. ratet dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 222. Personal income in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Disposable personal income 224. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 225. Constant (1958) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 226. Per capita, 227. Per capita, current dollars constant(1958) dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann, rate, dol.) 1968 First quarter... Second quarter • Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 4,165 4,271 4,347 4,412 3,460 3,511 3,537 3,551 687.2 706.1 722.2 735.2 664.0 680.9 697.6 712.5 574.9 588.4 595.6 606.0 492.3 498.6 501.2 504.0 2,868 2,928 2,956 2,999 2,456 2,482 2,488 2,495 3,566 3,578 3,592 3,573 749.3 764.0 779.5 785.2 725.8 741.1 758.1 770.5 612.0 623.0 640.6 650.6 504.7 507.5 515.9 517.8 3,023 3,070 3,148 3,188 2,493 2,501 2,535 2,537 3,538 3,534 3,536 p3,496 791.5 797.4 806.6 (NA) 782.3 801.3 807.2 P813.4 665.3 683.6 693.0 p696.9 522.9 532.0 534.2 P529.8 3,252 3,333 3,369 P3,378 2,556 2,594 2,597 p2,568 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 4,483 4,551 4,632 4,663 1970 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter . 4,690 4,734 4,791 P4,802 1971 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The'V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and"NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9, 10, and 61. KCII JANUARY 1971 65 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Year and quarter 230. Total in current dollars 231. Total in constant (1958) dollars 232. Durable goods, total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 234. Automobiles 233. Durable goods, total except in current dollars autos, in current dollars 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 237. Services in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1968 519.7 529.1 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 534.8 550.8 445.0 448.4 457.7 79.9 82.6 86.7 86.9 51.5 53.4 54.7 55.6 28.4 29.2 32.0 31.3 225.6 227.6 232.6 234.8 214-2 218.9 224.5 229.0 463.3 89.1 90.6 89.5 90.8 57.6 59.1 57.9 58.3 31.5 31.5 31.6 32.5 239.2 244.0 248.1 252.0 233.5 238.7 244.5 249.8 89.1 91.9 28.9 91.2 60.2 61.5 61.3 30.4 P85.4 p6l.9 258.8 262.6 265.8 p271.7 255.2 259.9 265.1 P270.5 458.1 1969 561.8 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 573.3 582.1 467.1 468.7 592.6 471.7 603.1 614-4 622.1 474.0 1970 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. p627.6 478.1 479.6 F477.1 29.9 P23.5 1971 First quarter... Second quarter . Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS Year and quarter 240. Total 241. Nonresidential fixed investment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 242. Nonresidential structures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 243. Producers' durable equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 244. Residential structures 245. Change in business inventories (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1968 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter.. 119.8 127.3 126.5 132.6 88.3 86.4 88.3 91.6 29.8 28.9 29.4 30.3 58.5 57.5 59.0 61.3 28.8 30.6 29.9 31.7 +2.6 +10.4 +3.2 +9.3 136.0 139.3 143.8 140.2 95.7 97.5 101.5 102.6 32.6 32.3 35.2 35.1 63.1 65.2 66.3 67.5 33.0 33.9 31.0 30.4 +7.4 +7.9 +11.3 +7.2 133.2 134.3 138.3 102.6 102.8 103.6 plOl.4 35.7 35.3 35.0 P34-6 66.9 29.1 28.4 29.2 P32.0 +1.6 +3.1 +5.5 Pf4.1 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 1970 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter . P137.5 67.5 68.6 p66.8 1971 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The"r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12. 66 JANUARY 1971 IN: NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT H Qj FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS Year and quarter 250. Net exports of goods and services (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 252. Exports of goods and services 253. Imports of goods and services (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate bil. dol.) GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS 262. Federal 260. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 264. National defense (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 266. State and local (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1968 First quarter Second quarter. .... Third quarter. Fourth quarter 1969 +1.8 +3.4 +3.4 +1.4 47.7 50.7 53.2 50.9 45.9 47.3 49.8 49.5 193.6 198.3 202.1 206.7 96.4 98.9 100.7 101.9 76.3 77.8 78.6 79.2 97.2 99-4 101.4 104.7 First quarter Second quarter. .... Third quarter Fourth quarter +1.3 +1.3 +2.6 +2.6 47.8 57.2 58.3 58.8 46.5 55.9 55.6 56.2 208.5 209.9 214.1 216.3 100.9 99.8 102.5 102.1 78.6 77.9 79.8 78.8 107.5 110.1 111.6 114.2 +3.5 +4.1 +4.2 p+2.7 61.1 62.8 62.8 p62.6 57.6 58.7 58.6 P59.9 219.6 218.4 221.0 p223.2 102.3 99.7 98.6 P98.4 79.3 76.8 75.8 P74.6 117.4 118.7 122.4 P124.S 1970 First quarter Second quarter. Fourth quarter 1971 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter H Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS Year and quarter Durable goods 270. Final sales (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 280. Compensation 282. Proprietors' of employees income Nondurable goods 271. Change in 274. Final sales business inventories (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS IN CURRENT DOLLARS 284. Rental income of persons 275. Change in business inventories (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1968 First quarter Second quarter — Third quarter Fourth quarter 1969 165.2 168.0 173.1 175.3 +2.5 +7.1 +5.8 +7.2 246.4 249.8 255.9 258.0 +0.1 +3.2 +2.4 +2.1 495.3 507.6 520.9 532.5 62.9 63.8 64.4 65.2 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth Quarter .... 180.5 182.7 184.8 187.4 +5.6 +6.7 +7.9 +5.3 260.4 266.1 270.1 274.3 +1.8 +1.2 +3.5 +1.9 544.9 557.5 572.2 582.1 66.0 66.7 67.5 67.2 21.6 22.0 22.1 22.3 185.5 188.5 188.3 P179.0 -0.3 -1.9 +5.2 P-4.5 280.0 283.3 286.0 P291.4 +1.9 +5.0 +0.3 p+8.6 592.2 596.4 603.8 P606.8 67.6 67.8 67.8 p67.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 P23.0 1970 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1971 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p w , preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 14, 15, and 16° ItUI JANUARY 1971 67 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT E Year and quarter NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con. 286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) U| SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS 288. Net interest 290. Gross saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 292. Personal saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 294. Undistributed 296. Capital consumption corporate profits plus inventory valu- allowances ation adjustment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 298. Government surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1968 First Quarter Second quarter. .... Third quarter Fourth quarter 1969 81.3 86.0 87.4 87.1 26.4 27.3 28.2 29.1 121.6 129.6 129.8 133.5 40.8 44.5 36.5 39.6 19.3 22.6 23.3 21.3 72.3 73.7 74.6 75.5 -10.7 -11.2 -4-5 -2.9 First quarter Second quarter. .... Third quarter Fourth quarter 87.1 87.4 86.8 82.0 29.7 30.4 31.0 31.7 138.5 142.5 149.1 144.2 34.3 33.3 42.0 41.1 19.6 19.2 19.7 15.4 77.0 78.2 79.4 80.7 +7.7 +11.8 +8.0 +7.1 76.7 77.5 78.4 (NA) 32.4 33.1 33.8 P34.5 139.3 138.5 HO. 6 (NA) 44.8 51.5 52.7 P50.9 13.6 U.3 14.1 (NA) r82.1 83.6 r85.0 P86.5 -1.2 -10.9 -11.2 (NA) 1970 First quarter Second quarter. Fourth quarter 1971 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; ap", preliminary; V, estimated; M a", anticipated; and B NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16 and 17. JANUARY 1971 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS TIMING CLASS IjH EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS LEADING INDICATORS .... Minor Economic Marginal Employment Adjustments Process *1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing1 Year and month (Hours) 2. Accession 21. Average 4. Nonagriculweekly overtime tural placements, rate, manufachours, production all industries1 turing1 workers, manufacturing 1 (Per 100 (Hours) (Thous.) employees) Job Vacancies 3. Layoff rate, *5. Average manufacturing weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs2 (Per 100 (Thous.) employees) 49. Nonagricul- 46. Index of tural job help-wanted advertising in openings un1 newspapers filled (Thous.) (1957-59=100) 1969 372 375 365 229 231 181 182 197 l.l l.l 377 387 383 234 233 228 1 1 1.2 1.2 358 346 346 228 224 0)235 4.9 4.7 4.8 H>179 4.0.9 448 459 439 40.8 40.7 40.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 447 434 456 4.9 4.8 4.9 40.6 April May June 40.1 224 1.1 1.1 1.1 3.8 3.5 3.7 January . February March 186 185 1.2 July August September 40.6 40.6 40.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 438 425 421 4.7 4.5 4.8 195 196 200 October November December 40.5 40.5 40.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 405 401 376 4.7 4-4 4.6 202 211 210 1.3 1.3 1.4 343 338 319 r227 222 217 January February March 40.3 39.9 40.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 387 361 357 4.2 4.3 3.9 232 250 263 1.5 1.7 1.8 314 306 292 203 203 194 April May June 40.0 39.8 39.8 3.0 2.9 3.1 349 338 329 4.0 4.2 4.0 326 313 303 2.0 1.9 1.9 272 257 250 186 180 175 July August September 40.1 39.8 39.3 3.0 3.0 2.8 (M) 4.1 4.1 3.8 265 288 338 1.6 1.8 1.9 (NO 172 170 162 October November December r39.6 P39.7 3.6 3.7 341 333 291 2.2 2.0 E> - 1970 39.4 r2.8 r2.7 p2.6 P3.8 pl.7 146 148 P152 1971 January February . March . . April May June . . July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are indicated by [R>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by SB). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 18, 19, and 36. Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are: Series 1, 41.6 reached in Mar. 1966; Series 21, 4.1 in May 1966; 2 Series 4, 586 in May 1962; Series 2, 5.2 in Mar. 1966; Series 49, 4-37 in July 1966. Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. BCII JANUARY 1971 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS TIMING CLASS IJQj EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT»Con. Minor Economic Process Year and month LAGGING INDICATORS ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con. .... Comprehensive Employment 48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (Ann. rate, bil. man-hours) *41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey (Thous.) Long-Duration Unemployment Comprehensive Unemployment 42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey *43. Unemployment rate, total (Thous.) (Percent) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs1 (Percent) 40. Unemployment rate, married males (Percent) *44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Percent) 1969 January February March 137.22 137.21 138. 41 69,352 69,605 69,827 73,364 73,688 73,940 April ... May June 138.60 139.22 139.26 69,992 70,172 70,347 July August September 139.50 139.75 139.76 October November December 139-90 139.97 3.4 E>3.3 3.4 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.4 2.0 i>i.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 73,928 73,544 74,058 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.0 E>2.0 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 70,400 70,497 70,567 74,370 74,528 74,696 3.5 3.5 3.8 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 74,999 75,094 75,302 3.8 3.5 3.5 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.7 E>o.4 D 140. 25 70,836 70,808 70,8^2 January February March 139.44 139.70 no. 21 70,992 71,135 D 71,242 D 75, 615 75,323 75,562 3.9 4.2 4-4 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 April May June 139.74 139.05 138.39 71,149 70,839 70,629 75,338 74,836 74,671 4.8 5.0 4.7 3.1 3.6 3.7 2.4 2.6 2.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 July August September 138.70 138.24 138.09 70,587 70,414 70,531 75,119 75,025 75,025 5.0 5.1 5.5 3.5 3.7 r4.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 r!37.04 rl37.00 p!37.50 r70,!82 r70,076 p70,364 75,398 75,202 75,061 5.6 5.8 6.0 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 0.9 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.5 1970 . October November December 1971 January February March . . .. . April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by [R}; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p" F preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 19, 20, 38, and 39. 1 Data exclude Puerto Rico "which is included in figures published by source agency. 70 JANUARY 1971 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS TIMING CLASS g| PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, A ND TRADE — .... ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Minor Economic Process Year and month Comprehensive Production Comprehensive Income *200. Gross na- *205. Gross na- *47, Index of industrial protional product tional product n current dolin 1958 dollars duction ars *52. Personal income (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1969 January February March 907.6 (1957-59=100) 722.1 Comprehensive Consumption and Trade 53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) *56. Manufacturing and trade sales 57. Final sales (series 200 minus series *54. Sales of retail stores 245) (Mil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 169.1 170.1 171.4 720.2 725.2 732.0 187.2 187.6 190.9 100,192 101,418 101,776 900.2 (Mil. dol.) 28,955 29,257 28,881 April May June 923.7 726.1 171.7 172.5 173.7 736.3 740.9 746.2 191.6 192.6 194.7 102,704 103,349 104,140 915.9 29,409 29,386 29,371 July August . ... September . . 942.6 H> 730.9 S>174.6 174.3 173.9 752.7 758.5 763.1 195.7 197.1 198.0 103,668 105,295 106,078 931.2 29,090 29,346 29,259 951.7 729.2 173.1 171.4 171.1 766.7 770.6 774.3 198.8 198.8 200.6 106,593 105,566 105,021 944.5 29,620 29,471 29,419 959.5 723.8 170.4 170.5 171.1 777.8 781.5 787.6 199.1 198.9 0)200.7 104,932 106,164 105,487 957.9 29,570 29,980 29,801 October November . December 1970 January February March ... April May June 971.1 724.9 170.2 169.0 168.8 806.0 799.7 798.2 199.2 197.7 198.0 105,087 106,847 107,612 968.1 30,536 30,502 30,518 July . .. August September 985.5 727.4 169.2 168.8 165.8 803.3 806.4 811.9 198.9 198.8 198.3 Jj) 108, 393 108,175 108,074 980.0 30,729 30,781 (H) 30,885 E> P990.9 P721.3 rl62.3 rl6l.6 pl63.9 r809.9 r8!2.6 [H)p817.8 193.7 193.6 p!99.4 r 106, 224 p!05,057 (NA) [H>p986.8 r30,534 p30,173 (NA) October November December 1971 January February March April Mav June July August September October November December . . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by jj); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21, 22, and 38. JANUARY 1971 71 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS TIMING CLASS Qj FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT LEADING INDICATORS .... Formation of Business Enterprises Minor Economic Process Year and month . . . . ._ . . . New 'nvestmer|t Commitments *12. Index of net 13. Number of new *6. Value of business formation business incorpora- manufacturers' new orders, tions durable goods industries (1957-59=100) (Number) (Bil. dol.) 8. Index of construction contracts, total value * (1957-59=100) *10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (Bil. dol.) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations1 (Bil. dol.) 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, producers' capital goods industries (Bil. dol.) 2 ( ) 1969 January February March 125.2 H> 125.8 123.2 20,578 22.199 21,353 29.94 30 20 29 95 204 r8 61 PD5 182 7 #£ r7 6/ April May June 123.8 123.1 123.6 23,220 23,185 23,528 30.86 30 50 29.56 183 210 186 8 21 8 in r7 Al July August September . 124.6 124.2 123.1 23,554 22,967 23,138 31.06 31.46 H) 31.99 180 216 173 r7 77 r7 61 r8 37 7 7*5 October November December 123.2 121.7 122.3 (H> 24,046 23,308 22,137 31.44 31.05 30.21 195 178 0) 218 r7.89 r7.88 8 38 7.59 1970 January . . . February March 121.9 121.7 117.1 22,072 23,249 21,091 29.05 29.37 28,86 205 215 205 fu\ 8.86 8.58 7.61 6 58 6 63 6 00 April May June 116.0 113.9 112.8 21,876 22,401 22,276 28.45 29.98 30.03 203 170 186 8.17 7.57 r7.64 6 51 A qr\ 112.7 111.8 22,264 22,078 p23,126 31.40 30.54 29.86 180 212 183 r7.87 r7.77 r8.02 pf7-.02 6.41 6.30 6.76 21,409 23,392 (NA) 28.50 r29.01 P30.09 179 202 205 r7.29 r8.!8 P7.37 (NA) 6.55 r6.87 p6.22 July August September October November December 1971 rpl!2.8 rill. 4 pill. 7 (NA) A 31 f. rq ooj A 77 A IO 7 n^ [jj\ rj rjS f. CO DO^ A /A 6 40 A PQ fu\ 7 OQ 6 35 6 74 A £/ A £/ 5 98 6 28 January February March April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and"NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23, 24, and 36. -'•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency: McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company,, F. W. Dodge Division (series 8), or The Conference Board (series 11). 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill. 72 JANUARY 1971 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS TIMING CLASS 0 FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con. .... Minor Economic Process. LEADING INDICATORS-Con. ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS LAGGING INDICATORS New Investment Commitments-Con. Backlog of Investment Commitments Investment Expenditures 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings 1 Year and month (Mil. sq.ft. floor space) 28. New private housing units started, total (Ann. rate, thous.) 2 ( ) H> 94.4.3 1969 January February ... March . 69.98 63.50 *29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (1957-59=100) Revised 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil.dol.) ing1 (Bil. dol.) *61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 2 1,639 1,588 123.2 121.3 118.3 84.25 84.60 15705 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufactur- 84.91 Apri 1 May June 65. 82 85.60 80.37 1,505 1,533 1,507 118.2 111.3 112.5 85.91 July August September 73.70 71.96 68.90 1,429 1,376 1,481 107.8 110.7 104,3 [H>86.82 86.74 October November December 79.96 64.31 86.89 1,390 1,280 1,402 101.3 101.4 98.2 86.56 86.60 86.21 88.86 80.95 67.11 1,059 1,306 1,392 87.8 93,4 90.7 85.32 84.42 83.52 April May June 64.00 58.19 r54.47 1,224 1,242 1,393 98.4 109.4 107,3 82.34 July August September r70.45 r6l.04 r60.l6 1,603 1,425 1,509 109,4 115.2 116.1 October November December r51.71 r54.00 57.77 rl,583 rl,688 H> pl,987 127.1 124.4 86.70 85.97 86.81 72.52 89.62 90.88 90.19 21.54 89.12 73.94 90.29 91.75 22.83 92.11 ... 94-22 H>97.98 77.84 94-81 93.31 H>23.85 ... 92.06 ... 23.53 78.22 ... 22.85 80.22 ... p22.65 H)81.88 ... 96.67 96.67 95.68 ... a8l.72 r93.27 P93.81 77.84 23. 4B 1970 January February March . E>pL45.1 81.82 81.22 93.61 91.83 81.30 80.56 79.56 78.69 178.88 P79.05 96.37 94.30 96.78 94.15 (NA) (NA) 1971 January February March April May June a8l.40 . . . ... a82.20 July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are indicated by jj>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 24, 25, 36, and 39. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency: McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division (series 9), or The Conference Board (series 97). 2See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. ItCII JANUARY 1971 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS HJ INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT TIMING CLASS LEADING INDICATORS LAGGING INDICATORS Inventory Investment and Purchasing Inventories .... Minor Economic Process 245. Change in *31. Change in 37. Purchased materials, com business book value of mfg. and trade panies reportinventories1 ing higher inventories, inventories1 total x (Percent (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) bil.dol.) reporting) Year and month 20. Change in book value of mfrs.' inventories of mtls. and supplies1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 26. Production materials, companies reportini commitments 6C days or longer®1 (Percent reporting) 32, Vendor performance, companies reporting slower deliveries® 1 (Percent reporting) 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries1 (Bil. dol.) *71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value (Bil. dol.) 65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value (Bil.dol.) 1969 +6.3 +15.7 +13.6 43 47 49 +0.3 +0.1 +3.2 57 58 63 62 61 61 +0.58 +0.36 +12.3 +10.6 +11.6 49 51 49 +1.3 +1.6 -1.0 65 64 66 68 69 70 +1.00 +13.0 +13.2 +13.3 50 51 50 66 68 66 +0.85 +1.5 59 63 65 +17.9 +5.2 +13.8 54 57 48 +3.3 +1.0 +2.9 63 65 65 65 62 64 +0.04 +1.6 -2.6 +11.3 +6.1 50 50 51 -4.3 +5.5 +1.4 61 62 56 +3.1 +10.9 -3.9 +7.7 45 40 46 -1.4 -1.8 -0.2 +5.5 +15.1 +8.7 +8.1 46 43 48 r+3.8 p+6.2 46 48 42 January February March +7.4 April May June +7.9 July August September +11.3 October November December +7.2 153.23 154.54 155.67 29.14 29.42 29.67 156.70 157.58 158.55 29.98 30.31 30.45 159.63 160.73 161.84 30.66 30.90 31.06 -0.39 163.33 163.76 164.92 31.24 31.52 31.64 56 58 50 -0.88 -0.90 -0.90 164.70 165.64 166.15 32.48 32.15 32.33 60 57 55 52 72 69 -1.18 -0.51 -0.60 167.06 166.73 167.38 32.97 32.95 33.09 -0.3 +1.9 +0.6 52 50 52 50 45 45 +0.08 168.64 169.36 170.04 33.36 33.56 33.70 +3.6 +3.6 (NA) 54 54 52 38 36 36 iT70 35 (H>pl70.87 34 18 [H>34.38 0.0 0.0 +0.31 +0.79 -0.74 -0.08 +0.07 -0.24 1970 January February March April . May June . . July August September ... . October November December P+4.1 (NA) -0.74 -1.00 -0.87 r+0.19 p+0.16 (NA) (NA) 1971 January February March April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are indicated by |H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26, 27, 37, and 39. •'•Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are: Series 245, +19.9 reached in 4th quarter 1966; Series 31, +20.8 in June 1966; Series 37, 63 in Nov. 1964; Series 20, +5.9 in Aug. 1966; Series 26, 75 in Oct. 1966; Series 32, 86 in Mar. 1966; Series 25, +1.90 in Mar. 1966. 74 JANUARY 1971 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS TIMING CLASS Qj PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS .... Minor Economic Process LEADING INDICATORS Sensitive Commodity Prices Stock Prices *23. Index of industrial materials prices©I Year and month Profits and Profit Margins *19. Index of *16. Corpostock prices, rate profits 500 common after taxes stocks® 1 (1957-59-100) (1941-43-10) 22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all (Ann. rate, indus. ! (Percent) bil. dol.) 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all mfg corp. i (Cents) *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, mfg. 1 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS LAGGING INDICATORS Comprehensive Wholesale Prices Unit Labor Costs 55. Index of wholesale prices, indus commod. ® 58. Index of wholesale prices, mfd. goods ® 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unil of gross prod. (1958 dol.), nonfin. corp. (1957-59=100) (1957-59-100 (1957-59=100) (Dollars) *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (1957-59=100) 1969 98.8 99.9 99.6 110.9 111.4 112.0 111.3 111.7 99.4 99.7 99.8 112.1 112.2 112.2 112.4 4.9 9-9 4.8 99.8 99.0 98.9 112.4 112.8 113.2 47.1 9.7 4.5 98.5 98.0 97.1 90.31 87.16 88.65 44.6 9.0 4.1 118.7 118.0 115.3 85.95 76.06 75.59 43.9 9.0 July August . September 112.8 111.6 rllO.9 75.72 77.92 82.58 45.4 9.1 October November December 109.9 109.3 106.8 84.37 84.28 90.05 (NA) January February March. . 103.4 106.3 106.9 102.04 101.46 99.30 49.5 April May June 109.3 110.4 E)49.7 111.6 101.26 104.62 99.14 July August September 112.4 115.0 117.4 94.71 94-18 94.51 47.9 October November December 115.6 115.6 117.2 95.52 96.21 91.11 January February March 119.4 120.0 119.2 Apri 1 May June 10.7 10.5 0.745 112.6 111.8 112.7 0.755 113.1 113.1 113.4 113.5 113.6 113.9 0.767 113.7 114.7 115.2 113.8 114.2 114.6 114.6 114.9 115.3 0.783 116.4 117.3 118.7 97.6 98.2 98.0 115.1 115.5 115.8 116.1 116.4 116.6 0.799 119.0 118.5 119.0 4.2 98.5 97.9 97.9 116.2 116.6 116.7 116.9 117.1 117.4 0.802 118.7 119.6 119.9 4.1 98.3 98.1 4 95.9 116.9 117.1 117.4 118.0 118.0 118.2 [R)0.811 120.0 120.3 4 123.2 r96.6 96.7 P94-9 118.3 118.3 [H>118.7 118.6 118.7 JH>118.7 5.0 112.2 112.8 113.2 1970 (NA) (NA) (NA) r!22.8 r!22.7 [H)pl25.1 1971 2105.6 January . . February March. April May June 3 94. 28 .... July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are indicated by g>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28, 29, 37, and 39. 1 Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are: Series 23, 123.5 reached in Mar. 1966; Series 19, 106.48 in Dec. 1968; Series 22, 13.9 in 1st quarter 1966; Series 15, 5.8 in 1st quarter 1966; Series 17^105.2 in July 1966. 2Average for January^, 12, and 19. 3 Average for January 20, 21, and 22. *~This figure may be distorted by factors associated with the automobile strike and by the occurrence of Labor Day during the week of the employment, earnings, and hours survey. ltd) JANUARY 1971 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS TIMING CLASS jj| MONEY AND CREDIT .... LEADING INDICATORS Minor Economic Process Year and month Flows of Money and Credit 98. Change in money supply and time deposits (Ann. rate, percent) 85. Change in U.S. money supply1 (Ann. rate, percent) 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by fin. inst. and life insurance companies1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Credit Difficulties *113. Net change 112. Change in in consumer business loans installment debt1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) 14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency bilities of bus- rate, 30 days ness failures® 1 and over, total installment loans1 (Mil. dol.) (Percent) 1969 January February March. -1.19 +2.09 +0.30 +4.26 +7.27 +4.82 +20.56 +23.66 +19.61 +7.69 +9.58 +7.75 +14.88 +8.88 +7.15 94,192 75.03 89.99 84.12 April May .. June +1.49 +0.60 +0.89 +5.40 +3.58 +4.76 +21.90 +19.38 +22.08 +9.12 +10.15 +9.54 +11.64 +8.14 +10.30 D102,632 118.76 92.60 91.92 July August September ... -7.14 -9.57 -1.21 +4.15 -2.95 +1.18 +17.08 +21.35 +20.62 +7.46 +7.20 +8.38 -2.86 +4.13 +8.76 89,716 112.73 62.83 73.70 October November December -0.60 +0.30 +2.11 +2.37 +1.77 +0.59 +18.97 +19.61 +14-41 +8.03 +7.44 +4-98 +7.69 -1.30 +11.94 81,772 116.44 127.14 96.85 January February March +0.90 -1.51 +11.76 +9.43 -4.09 +12.32 +16.63 +14.53 +12.23 +4.56 +5.02 +2.38 -12.74 +3.49 -3.74 76,700 137.28 139.39 120.02 April May June +14.63 +7.96 +6.74 +9.87 +5.18 +2.29 +13.93 +18.06 +21.23 +3.55 +4.98 +5.29 +1.08 -5.87 +1.19 84,128 131.90 147.89 170.50 B> +20.40 +17.77 +17.79 +5.73 +6.84 +5.67 +22.63 +20.75 +23.40 +5.32 +2.78 +4.31 +5.20 +10.58 D+18.50 p84,!88 251.92 169.59 232.94 +10.85 r+9.10 p+17.79 +1.13 r+2.82 IH-6.18 r+24.47 Pf21.17 (NA) -0.98 -3.62 (NA) -1.38 r-3.66 p+0.02 (NA) 144-77 119.84 121.72 1^55 1.59 l.*65 1.70 1.71 1.B1 1970 July August September October November December . . 1.79 1.73 1.81 1.90 1.90 (NA) 1971 January February March April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are indicated by [fl); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31, and 37. 1 Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are: Series 85, +14.03 reached in Feb. 1967; Series 33, +25.51 in Dec. 1968; Series 113, +11.36 in Oct. 1968; Series 14, 58.65 in Nov. 1968; Series 39, 1.50 in Oct. 1968. 76 JANUARY 1971 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS TIMING CLASS Minor Economic Process 1H MONEY AND CREDIT-Con. ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS .... k Re^v es 93. Free reserves® Year and month (Mil. dol.) LAGGING INDICATORS nntctanriino Dpht Outstanding Debt Money Market Interest Rates 114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer *72. Commercial bill rate® bond yields® bond yields® bond yields® installment and industrial loans outstanddebt ing, weekly reporting large commercial banks (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) lnterest Rates On Business Loan$ and Mortgages *67. Bank 118. Mortgage rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential ® loans, 35 cities ® (Percent) (Percent) 1969 January February March -480 -596 -701 6.18 6.16 6.08 7.29 7.33 7.76 5.74 5.86 6.05 4.85 4.98 5.26 88,729 89,527 90,173 73,410 74,472 74,748 7.32 -844 (NA) 7.99 8.05 April May June -1,102 -1,064 6.15 6.08 6.49 7.54 7.62 8.04 5.84 5.85 6.05 5.19 5.33 5.76 90,933 91,779 92,574 75,900 76,867 76,909 7.86 8.06 8.06 8.35 July August September -1,074 -946 -831 7.00 7.01 7.13 8.06 8.05 8.36 6.07 6.02 6.32 5.75 6.00 6.26 93,196 93,796 94,494 76,860 77,746 78,254 8.82 8.36 8.36 8.40 October November December -992 -988 -829 7.04 7.19 7.72 8.46 8.94 9.22 6.27 6.52 6.81 6.09 6.30 6.82 95,163 95,783 96,198 78,513 78,537 80,764 8.83 8.48 8.48 8.62 January February March -799 -819 -781 0)7.91 9.00 8.84 9.00 6.86 6.44 6.39 6.65 6.36 6.03 96,578 96,996 97,194 78,506 78,811 78,150 0)8.86 (NA) 0)9.29 9.20 April May June -704 -795 -701 9.09 9.53 0)9.70 6.53 6.94 0)6.99 6.49 0)7.00 6.96 97,490 97,905 98,346 78,126 78,069 78,068 8.49 9.10 9.11 9.16 98,789 99,021 0)99,380 78,535 80,344 0)81,397 8.50 9.11 9.07 9.01 99,298 98,996 (NA) 80,939 r80,557 p80,799 8.07 8.97 8.90 8.40 1970 July August September 0) -1,217 -682 -335 October November December -208 r-305 p-77 7.16 6.71 6.48 7.04 6.74 6.50 6.41 6.24 9.09 9.08 9.00 6.57 6.75 6.63 6.53 6.20 6.25 5.93 5.29 4.86 9.14 8.97 8.13 6.59 6.24 5.97 6.39 5.93 5.46 1971 January February March April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 39. KCII JANUARY 1971 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing Q| COMPOSITE INDEXES Year and month 810. Twelve leaders, reverse trend adjusted^series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 113) 811. Twelve leaders, prior to trend adjustment (same components as in series 810) (1967=100) (1967=100) 830. Six laggers (series 44, 61, 62, 67, 813. Marginal 71, 72) employment adjustments 41, 43, 47, 52, (series 1,2, 3, 56) 5) 2 820. Five coinciders, estimated aggregate economic activity (series (1967=100) Leading Indicator Subgroups 814. Capital investment commitments (series 6, 10, 12, 29) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) 815. Inventory 816. Profitinvestment and ability (series purchasing 16, 17, 19)2 (series 223, 25, 31,37) (1967=100) (1967=100) 817. Sensitive financial flows (series 33,2 85, 112, 113) (1967=100) 1969 January February March 114.8 116.4 116.1 107.2 108.3 107.6 115.5 116.. 8 117.6 116.9 118.5 120.0 103.3 101.8 103.4 110.9 111.7 110.0 100.6 103.1 103.0 101.9 102.5 101.9 104.8 105.2 102.8 April May June 118.0 118.2 117.5 H) 109.0 108.7 107.7 118.1 119.0 120.2 120.7 122.1 123.9 103.5 103.2 102,4 E>111.7 110.0 109 c 8 104.6 104.5 103.0 102.2 103.1 101.8 105.6 103.8 105.1 117.6 117.5 E>118.5 107.4 106.9 107.4 120.6 121.2 121.2 125.9 128.4 129.1 102.4 101.7 102.1 110.1 109.7 109.9 105.3 105.0 105.7 100.6 99.6 99.5 100.3 101.7 103.2 July August September . . October November December 1970 January February March 118.2 117.4 117.6 106.7 105.6 105.4 121.8 122.1 E)122.2 131.1 130.6 132.2 101.3 100.5 100.9 109.1 108.5 109.1 105.9 105.2 105.1 99.3 98.9 96.8 102.4 101.2 100.2 rll6.2 rll6.5 rll5.0 rl03.7 r!03.7 rl01.9 121.7 121.9 122.0 131.7 131.2 130.5 98.6 97.2 96.4 1-108.0 1-108.4 z-105.6 103.9 105.4 104.8 96.5 95.8 95.9 98.7 98.3 98.2 April May June rl!3.8 rl!4.4 114.9 101.5 rlOO.l rlOO.3 122.0 121.2 121.4 130.6 130.7 130.7 94-4 94.9 94-8 106.2 rl06.3 rl05.9 104.2 102.4 103.6 95.5 92.8 92.9 99.5 99.5 101.0 July . . . . August September rll6.2 rl!5.4 rll4.9 rl01.5 rlOO.4 r99.6 121.4 121.1 120.5 130.9 132.0 [H)132.7 97.0 95.5 93.0 1-106.7 rl06.4 1-106.7 104.2 102.2 102.4 93.5 94.1 93.5 102.6 101.7 104.2 98.5 r98.8 p99.8 1-118.7 rl!8.1 pl!9.6 r!32.5 r!31.5 P131.1 92.2 r93.1 P95.0 105.8 1-106.7 P107.9 rl01.6 rl02.7 plOO.8 r94.8 94.9 P94.8 98.3 P96.1 (NA) October...November December 1971 January February March 114.1 rl!4.8 pll6.4 3 3 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are indicated by (fl); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 34 and 35. ^-Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators. 2 Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are as follows: Series 813, 105.4 reached in Mar. 1966; Series 815, 109.3 in Mar. 1966; Series 816, 104.6 in Feb. 1966; Series 817, 106.9 in Dec. 1968. 3 Excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available. 78 JANUARY 1971 BCII ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS AGGREGATE SERIES Year and quarter 410. Manufacturers' sales, total value 61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment a. Actual expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) b. Second c. First anticipations as anticipations as percent of actual percent of actual (Percent) (Percent) (Bil. dol.) 412. Manufactur- 414. Condition ers' inventories, of manufacturers' total book value inventories: percent considered high less percent considered low (Bil. dol.) (Percent) 416. Adequacy 435. Index of of mfrs.' capac- consumer sentiment ity: percent considered inadequate less percent considered excessive (First quarter (Percent) 1966=100) 1968 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 68.09 66.29 67.77 69.05 100.0 104.0 102.7 103.9 101.2 102.1 105.1 103.1 U5.4 149.6 152.6 156.6 83.8 85.6 87.1 88.6 22 22 21 16 35 35 40 42 95.0 92.4 92.9 92.1 72.52 73.94 77.84 77.84 102.7 104.4 102.8 100.0 101.5 100.3 159.6 162.3 167.4 168.1 90.4 92.2 94.2 95.9 18 19 22 22 43 38 39 41 95.1 91.6 86.4 79.7 78.22 80.22 81.88 a8l.72 102.3 100.5 103.6 103.4 101.7 (NA) 165.9 166.6 170.2 al68.8 97.0 97.7 98.7 a99-9 23 23 20 38 36 33 78.1 75.4 77.1 72.4 a!76.4 al01.5 1969 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 99.5 101.5 1970 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 99.0 (NA) (NA) (NA) 1971 First quarter... Second quarter . Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. a8l.40 a82.20 AGGREGATE SERIES-Con. Year and quarter 420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reportinga. No change b. Higher in income income (Percent) (Percent) c. Lower income (Percent) 425. Mean probability of substantial changes in family income of households a. Increase in income (Percent) 430. Household purchases of new cars 2-quarter moving average a. Actual b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly) d. Anticipated b. Actual c. Anticiless decrease in income pated as percent of (Ann. rate, actual (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, mil. cars) mil. cars) mil. cars) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 52.9 53.0 50.8 50.7 36.4 35.9 37.3 37.4 10.0 10.5 10.8 11.1 19.3 18.3 18.4 16.7 13.8 12.5 11.9 11.2 5.5 5.8 6.5 5.5 8.1 8.4 8.1 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.9 8.3 99 92 96 105 52.7 45.6 46.2 48.3 35.4 41.3 39.9 37.3 11.3 12.4 13.0 13.6 16.5 18.1 18.6 17.6 11.3 12.0 13.0 11.6 5.2 6.1 5.6 6.0 7.1 7.1 7.7 (NA) 7.4 7.1 7.4 (NA) 8.0 7.9 7.5 7.8 108 111 101 (NA) 20.1 19-9 18.2 16.7 13.8 12.9 10.9 9.4 6.3 7.0 7.3 7.3 1970 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 1971 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter . 7.7 1972 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "rn indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40, 41, and 42. ltd* JANUARY 1971 79 ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and quarter D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade x D440. New orders, manufacturing 3 Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade1 D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade * Actual Anticipated Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 78 78 79 80 80 83 82 81 70 73 72 74 74 80 78 73 79 82 82 84 82 86 86 84 57 60 58 60 60 60 58 60 81 80 76 72 82 85 83 80 70 74 68 66 78 79 77 76 80 84 78 76 86 83 59 60 58 58 60 60 60 59 66 64 60 (NA) 76 71 74 74 61 56 55 (NA) 70 66 70 66 70 66 64 (NA) 74 73 78 76 54 54 51 58 56 56 54 (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1968 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1969 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1970 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. (NA) 1971 76 First quarter... Second quarter . Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 78 71 55 DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. Year and quarter D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade1 Anticipated Actual Selling prices D460. Manufacturing and trade1 Anticipated Actual D462, Manufacturing 1 Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 68 68 70 70 63 66 67 66 78 80 81 84 76 79 78 78 74 76 78 71 70 70 68 66 68 66 66 84 84 85 85 78 80 80 81 66 61 62 (NA) 62 61 64 58 84 82 82 (NA) 78 78 80 77 (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) D464. Wholesale trade1 Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) D466. Retail trade 1 Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1968 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 74 76 75 76 81 82 82 85 78 82 78 78 92 81 84 86 87 82 80 82 82 75 79 78 80 85 85 86 85 79 80 80 80 91 90 90 89 84 84 84 86 80 80 78 (NA) 79 76 78 75 87 85 86 (NA) 77 80 82 80 86 86 85 (NA) 80 80 81 80 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 1970 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter . 1971 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 60 78 76 80 80 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 43 and 44* is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,Inc. 80 JANUARY 1971 ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. Year and quarter D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries b. Second anticipations a. Actual expenditures (1-Q span) (1-Q span) b. Anticipations a. Actual carloadings c. First anticipations (1-Q span) 480. Change in freight carloadings® D480. Freight carloadings © (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (Thous. of cars4-Q span) 1968 First Quarter Second Quarter. .... Third Quarter Fourth quarter 1969 66.7 47.2 66.7 50.0 6l.l 83.3 75.0 88.9 55.6 61.1 66.7 55.6 31.6 68.4 68.4 57.9 73.7 63.2 73.7 68.4 -16 +29 +52 -11 First quarter Second quarter. .... Third quarter Fourth quarter 1970 First quarter Second quarter. .... Third quarter Fourth quarter 1971 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 83.3 66.7 75.0 a. 7 94-4 83.3 61.1 55.6 58.3 63.9 66.7 58.3 52.6 47.4 42.1 (NA) 78.9 89.5 84.2 84.2 -19 -12 -4 +14 77.8 47.2 58.3 (NA) 69.4 61.1 25.0 44.4 38.9 55.6 66.7 50.0 73.7 47.4 73.7 (NA) -6 -29 -68 r-119 41.7 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 45* K€l» JANUARY 1971 81 OTHER KEY INDICATORS RHj FOREIGN TRADE 500. Merchandise trade balance (series 502 minus series 512) Year and month (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) C1) 1969 January February March 502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total 506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicles and parts (Mil. dol.) 508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery 512. General imports, total (1957-59=100) (Mil. dol.) C1) +80 -340 +221 April May June +179 July August. September +104 +191 October November December +141 +154 +20 +26 +270 C1) 2,094 2,313 3,197 1 118 2/2 260 222 P my p £cq p Q7£ 3,353 3,296 3,211 1,110 1,222 1 211 248 26A ?#3 Q 177 3 276 q -igc 3,168 3,370 3,323 1,215 1 23Q 1,317 2Q1 248 276 3 06/ q T7Q 3 0*5/ 1,341 1,312 1,353 265 3 221 3 212 1 006 834 1 3Q1 +233 3,362 3,365 3,238 1970 January . February March r+47 r+370 r+167 r3,297 r3,627 r3,376 1,208 1,561 1,578 232 •a pen 243 247 r3,258 r3,208 April May June r+200 r+331 r+465 r3,448 r3,693 r3,775 1,493 1,175 1,342 266 267 269 r3,247 r3 362 3,310 3,683 r3,600 3,535 1,258 1,357 1,674 288 272 270 r3 2A1 3,364 3,398 3,707 3,463 3,518 rl,384 pi, 360 r225 p239 3 528 3,462 3,320 July August September T»+4/,? r+236 +137 October November December 1971 January February March +179 0 +197 (NA) 233 p/y. (NA) April May June July August September October November December . . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 46. ^ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill. 82 JANUARY 1971 IICII OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS Year and quarter U.S. balance of payments 522. Official settlements basis 520. Liquidity balance basis a. Including allocations of SDR (Mil, dol.) 250. Balance on goods and services, excluding military grants b. Excluding allocations of SDR a. Including allocations of SDR (Mil, dol.) (Mil. dol.) b. Excluding allocations of SDR (Mil, dol.) Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers and errors and omissions 525. Liquidity balance basis 1 (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 527. Official settlements basis2 (Mil, dol.) 530. Liquid liabilities to all foreigners3® (Mil. dol.) 1968 -244 +106 +145 +164 -61 +1,652 +408 -358 455 853 851 340 -699 -747 -706 -176 -516 +799 -443 -698 32,482 32,5U 33,493 33,614 -1,352 -3,801 -2,279 +420 +1,453 +1,315 -582 +514 330 313 656 651 -1,682 -4,114 -2,935 -231 +1,123 +1,002 -1,238 -137 34,930 39,045 r42,655 -3,110 -1,994 p-2,047 832 1,104 pl,021 (NA) -2,271 -2,338 P-1,659 (NA) -3,725 -2,881 P-2,851 (NA) r42,943 r43,347 PU,207 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter.., Fourth quarter.. 1969 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1970 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. -1,439 -1,234 P-638 (NA) -1,656 -1,451 P-855 (NA) -2,893 -1,777 p-1,830 (NA) (NA) (NA) 1971 First quarter... Second quarter . Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. Year and quarter 532. Liquid and certain npnliquid liabilities to foreign official agencies3© (Mil. dol.) 534. U.S. official reserve assets 4 © (Mil. dol.) 535. Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights (Mil. dol.) Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants Merchandise, adjusted5 Goods and services 252. Exports (Mil. dol.) 253. Imports (Mil. dol.) 536. Exports 537. Imports (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) Income on investment, military transactions, other serv., total 540. Exports (Mil. dol.) 541. Imports (Mil. dol.) 1968 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter.. 18,407 16,994 17,493 18,574 13,926 14,063 U,634 15,710 11,932 12,685 13,295 12,714 11,477 11,832 12,444 12,374 7,946 8,386 8,878 8,378 7,820 8,132 8,569 8,443 3,986 4,299 4,417 4,336 3,657 3,700 3,875 3,931 16,911 16,006 17,732 17,162 15,758 16,057 16,743 16,964 11,948 14,291 14,565 14,712 11,618 13,978 13,909 7,472 9,585 9,581 9,835 7,576 9,606 9,263 9,390 4,476 4,706 4,984 4,877 4,042 4,372 4,646 4,671 19,511 20,550 p22,360 17,350 16,328 15,527 U,510 U,810 Pl4,903 9,723 9,876 P9,958 (NA) 4,787 4,934 P4,945 (NA) 10,228 10,705 plO,678 (NA) 5,114 5,209 P5,246 (NA) 15,342 15,9U Pl5,924 (NA) 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter.. 1970 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter . 217 217 217 216 (NA) (NA) (NA) 1971 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter.. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available; SDR indicates Special Drawing Rights. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 47, 48, and 49. 2 •"•Series 520 (including allocations of SDR beginning 1st quarter 1970J minus series 250. Series 522 (including allocations 3 of SDR beginning 1st quarter 1970) minus series 250. Amount outstanding at end of quarter. ^Reserve position at end of 5 quarter. Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). BCII JANUARY 1971 83 OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. Income on Investment, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541) Year and quarter Travel Income on Investments 542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign investments in ments abroad the U.S. (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) Military transactions Transportation and other services 546. Sales under 547. Military 545. Payments 544. Receipts expenditures from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conabroad tracts elers in the U.S. abroad (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) (Mil. dol.) 548. Receipts from 549. Payments for (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) 1968 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1,765 1,990 2,000 1,935 677 732 761 762 433 431 451 460 755 737 787 743 302 344 393 357 1,103 1,112 1,147 1,173 1,486 1,534 1,573 1,584 1,122 1,119 1,180 1,253 2,089 2,150 2,286 2,3U 905 1,071 1,240 1,247 501 520 519 518 820 855 875 840 391 313 458 352 1,198 1,187 1,220 1,245 1,495 1,723 1,721 1,693 1,119 1,259 1,311 1,339 2,499 2,302 p2,407 (NA) 1,343 1,325 pl,292 (NA) 559 575 P578 920 990 pl,025 (NA) 258 432 P341 (NA) 1,178 1,255 pl,214 1,798 1,900 pl,920 (NA) 1,341 1,364 pl,414 (NA) 1969 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1970 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. (NA) 1971 First quarter... Second quarter . Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers Year and quarter Direct investments 560. Fpreign investments in the U.S. (Mil.dol.) 1968 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. Securities investments 561. U.S. investments abroad (Mil.dol.) 564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases of U.S. securities of foreign securities (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) 570. Government grants and capital transactions, net 575. Banking and other capital transactions, net (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) 251 5 23 41 451 878 1,048 831 839 1,122 1,115 1,312 304 171 327 453 -962 -355 -762 -391 434 228 156 313 246 164 152 270 902 1,015 877 276 1,388 365 396 963 319 539 567 69 -360 -1,327 -1,356 -594 132 -647 457 -520 459 103 p204 (NA) 1,411 1,434 P759 (NA) 297 381 p696 (NA) 133 -66 P576 (NA) -1,254 -305 p-895 (NA) -39 -204 p!21 (NA) 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 1970 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter . 1971 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 50 and 51. 84 JANUARY 1971 OTHER KEY INDICATORS Qjj FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Receipts and Expenditures Year and month 600. Federal surplus (+) or deficit (-), national income and product accounts (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 601. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts Defense Indicators 602. Federal 264. National expenditures, defense purnational income chases and product accounts 616. Defense Department obligations, total, excluding military assistance 621. Defense Department obligations, procurement 648. New or647. New orders, defense ders, defense products indus- products tries 625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) +9.5 197.2 187 ".7 78.6 7,578 7,050 6,543 2,307 2,207 1,542 4.12 4.10 3.81 1.93 2.17 2.17 3,468 3,658 2,777 +13*.4 202 [5 189 !l 77! 9 6,520 6,319 6,1/4 1,442 1,304 1,507 3.84 3.89 3.07 1.95 1.83 1.39 2,639 2,673 2,618 July August September ^'.3 200.8 192^5 79^8 6,906 6,472 6,394 1,462 1,276 1,807 4.18 4.01 3.45 2.45 1.61 1.44 2,962 3,172 2,748 October November December -MS!! 202.0 195^9 78*.8 7,041 7,091 7,088 1,845 1,974 2,224 4.18 4.45 4.09 1.89 2.35 1.93 3,314 2,659 2,826 -1.7 195 .*9 197.7 79.3 7,045 6,516 6,519 1,913 1,543 1,640 3.65 4.02 3.98 1.90 1.74 1.58 2,908 2,617 3,007 April May June -U.2 196.7 210.9 76>!8 6,643 6,118 6,505 1,485 1,328 1,740 3.42 4.08 3.51 1.38 1.89 1.85 2,549 2,190 2,870 July August September -ll'.S 194.9 206.7 75.8 7,111 6,035 r6,407 1,969 1,218 1,613 4.77 4.06 3.48 3.07 1.85 2.00 2,722 2,896 2,129 October November December (NA) 6,347 7,301 (NA) 1,449 2,227 3.95 r4.08 P3.98 2.12 (NA) r2.02 p2.06 3,568 r2,866 3,259 (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Bil.dol.) (Mil. dol.) 1969 January February . March April May June . . . 1970 January February March P209.5 P74.6 (NA) 1971 January February March April May June . .. July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53. JANUARY 1971 85 OTHER KEY INDICATORS Q PRICE MOVEMENTS Consumer price indexes Year and month 783. Commodities less foods 781. All items© 782. Food (1957-59 -100) (1957-59 -100) (1957-59=100) Wholesale price indexes 784. Services© 750. All commod- 58. Manufacities © tured goods® (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 751. Processed foods and feeds 752. Farm products (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 1969 January February March 124.1 124.6 125.6 122. 1 122.1 122.8 115.4 115.9 116.9 139.0 139.7 140.9 110.7 111.1 111.7 111.3 111.7 112.2 115.9 116.3 117.1 105.1 104.7 106.2 April May June 126.4 126,8 127.6 123.6 124.2 125.4 117.2 117.5 118.0 142.0 142.7 143.3 111.9 112.8 113.2 112.4 112.8 113.2 118.5 119.9 120.3 106.1 108.8 109.4 July... August September 128.2 128.7 129.3 125.8 126.4 127.1 118.2 118.4 118.8 144-0 145.0 146.0 113.3 113.4 113.6 113.5 113.6 113.9 120.6 121.0 120.6 108.5 109.2 109.3 October November December 1970 January February March 129.8 130.5 131.3 127.2 128.6 130.3 119.4 119.6 120.1 U6.5 147.2 148.3 114-0 114-7 115.1 114.6 114.9 115.3 121.8 122.5 123.1 110.0 112.3 112.6 131.8 132.5 133.2 130.8 131.8 132.0 120.5 120.6 120.9 U9.6 150.7 152.3 116.0 116.4 116.6 116.1 116.4 116.6 125.0 125.2 125.7 112.7 113.4 114.0 April May June 134.0 134.6 135.2 132.4 132.9 132.4 121.6 122.3 122.8 153.4 154.1 155.0 116.6 116.8 117.0 116.9 117.1 117.4 126.2 124.6 123.7 111.7 109.3 109.5 July August September 135.7 136.0 136.6 132.5 132.4 132.9 123.0 123.2 123.9 155.8 156.7 157.7 117.7 117.2 117.8 118.0 118.0 118.2 125.1 125.6 125.4 111.1 108.5 112.7 October ... . . November December 1971 January February March 137.4 137.8 (NA) 133.0 132.9 (NA) 124.6 125.1 (NA) 158.5 159.5 (NA) 117.8 117.7 117.8 118.6 118.7 118.7 125.2 125.6 124.1 109.6 107.9 107.7 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54, and 55. 86 JANUARY 1971 B€l» ANALYTICAL MEASURES Q ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP 207. Gap (potential less actual) Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars Year and quarter 206. Potential level1 205. Actual value (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1968 First Quarter Second quarter. .... Third quarter. Fourth quarter 693.5 705.4712.6 717.5 689.6 696.4. 703.3 710.2 -3.9 -9.0 -9.3 -7.3 722.1 726.1 717.2 -4-9 -1.8 +0.5 +9.4 1969 First quarter Second quarter. .... Third quarter Fourth quarter 730.9 729.2 724.3 731.4738.6 723.8 724.9 727.4P721.3 746.4. 754-3 762.3 770.4 1970 First quarter Second quarter. .... Fourth quarter +22.6 +29.4 +34.9 P+49.1 1971 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary "e", estimated: "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56. 1 Based on a trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to the 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to4~tti quarter 1970. JANUARY 1971 87 ANALYTICAL MEASURES HI Year and month 850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,manufacturers' durablegoods industries 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods (Percent) (Ratio) (Ratio) (1957-59=100) 1969 January February March ANALYTICAL RATIOS 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Ratio) 855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled to persons unemployed (Ratio) 858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm 856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers, mfg. 859. Real spendable avg. wkly. earnings nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers 857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing® (1957*59=100) (1957-59 dol.) (1957-59 dol.) (Percent) p84.*5 1.53 1.52 1.53 3.21 3.17 3.20 118.9 118.7 118.5 0.056 0.139 0.140 0.134 134*1 2.51 2.50 2.49 78.37 78.13 78.30 5*0 April May June pail 5 1.53 1.52 1.52 3.20 3.23 3.16 120.0 121.8 122.0 0.053 0.133 0.138 0.139 134*. 0 2.49 2.49 2.49 78.40 78.39 78.34 5*1 July August September p84*2 1.54 1.53 1.53 3.18 3.15 3.08 119.8 120.0 123.1 0.065 0.125 0.122 0.111 134*2 2.50 2.51 2.51 78.22 78.32 78.56 5*6 October November December p8l'.7 1.53 1.55 1.57 3.05 3.09 3.11 124.6 121.1 120.6 0.063 0.111 0.119 0.112 134-3 2.50 2.50 2.50 78.24 78.25 77.83 4*7 p79*8 1.57 1.56 1.58 3.13 3.07 3.08 119.4121.2 122.2 0.067 0.099 0.089 0.080 1333 2.49 2.48 2.48 77.84 77.84 78.09 5*6 p78.0 1.59 1.56 1.56 3.07 2.97 2.95 118.3 115.6 115.5 0.075 0.069 0.063 0.064 134*6 2.48 2.48 2.49 77.61 77.25 77.33 5.0 rp76.2 1.56 1.57 1.57 2.90 2.88 2.81 113.8 113.7 113.9 0.076 Pl36*i 2.49 2.50 2.50 77.71 77.96 77.20 4*9 P72.3 1.60 pi. 63 (NA) 2.87 2.92 rl!3.9 rl!3.6 pill. 3 pO.073 r2.45 2.46 77.05 P76.84 (NA) 4.' 8 1970 January February March April May June July August September .. October...November December 1971 January February March (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 57 and 58. JANUARY 1971 ANALYTICAL MEASURES Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators Year and month Dl. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (21 industries) 1-month span 9-month span 1969 January February March 47.6 28.6 97.6 42.9 23.8 26.2 April . . May June 38.1 40.5 50.0 35.7 28.6 23.8 33.3 45.2 50.0 61.9 23.8 16.7 July August September . ... October November December 14.3 57.1 81.0 16.7 January February March 33.3 26.2 57.1 19.0 28.6 April May June 28.6 28.6 54-8 16.7 76.2 19.0 r21.4 9.5 9.5 D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (35 industries) 1-month span 9-month span (2) (2) r71.4 r47.1 r50.0 65 59 65 r64.3 r48.6 r42.9 53 47 r34.3 r42.9 r22.9 50 29 r41.4 47 29 r65.7 r57.1 r74-3 r60.0 60.0 r44.3 31.4 r47.1 3-quarter span 53 82.9 54-3 r38.6 r65.7 1-quarter span r77.1 r50.0 r37.1 Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations, The Conference Board (17 industries)1 1970 . ... July August September 9.5 October November December 1971 January February March April May June July August September October November December 9.5 9.5 4.8 pl6.7 r37.1 r51.4 r40.0 r54.3 r62.9 51.4 54.3 34.3 62.9 r?6.2 28.6 r57.1 r60.0 P48.6 p69.0 40.0 51.4 ... 40.0 42.9 47.1 53 r57.1 P47 P47 (NA) P58.6 (NA) .. . .... .... NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; and "NA", not available, Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill. BCII JANUARY 1971 89 ANALYTICAL MEASURES Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con. D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (about ltOOO corporations) Year and month 1-quarter span 1969 January . February March D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (75 industries) © 1 1-month span 9-month span D23. Index of industrial materials prices (13 industrial materials) 1-month span 9-month span D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas) 1-month span 9-month span 53 12.0 43.3 13.3 73.3 40.0 14.7 53.8 61.5 46.2 84.6 80.8 76.9 72.3 38.3 55.3 70.2 46.8 40.4 April . . . May June 53 54.0 74.7 1.3 12.0 6.7 21.3 65.4 57.7 76.9 69.2 76.9 92.3 48.9 57.4 23.4 58.5 34.0 25.5 July . August September 50 4.0 34-7 61.3 25.3 21.3 20.0 61.5 7^.9 57.7 76.9 76.9 69.2 51.1 59.6 38.3 28.7 24.5 8.5 October November December 50 72.7 68.0 4.0 14.7 25.3 31.5 46.2 50.0 50.0 69.2 69.2 76.9 45.7 31.9 57.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 52 43.3 23.3 82.7 5.5 5.6 5.6 50.0 30.8 57.7 61.5 42.3 38.5 31.9 25.5 44-7 4-3 2.1 11.7 44 16.4 2.7 47.9 6.9 25.0 27.8 61.5 53.8 19.2 34-6 34.6 38.5 25.5 63.8 42.6 6.4 12.8 2.1 54 41.7 77.8 96.5 31.9 46.5 46.2 42.3 46.2 19.2 15.4 2 15.4 59.6 42.6 31.9 12.8 25.5 (NA) 72.2 48.6 98.6 1970 January February March April May June July August. . September ... October November December 1971 January February March 30.8 42.3 19.2 53.2 57.4 70.2 2 42.3 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is ad justed only for The index. Table E4 fdentifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V1 indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§). Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. 1 Based on 75 components through March 1970, on 73 components through May 1970, and on 72 components thereafter. 2 Average for January 5, 12, and 19. 90 JANUARY 1971 ItCII ANALYTICAL MEASURES R DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators Year and month D41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls (30 industries) 1-month span 6-month span D47. Index of industrial production (24 industries) 1-month span 6-month span D58. Index of wholesale prices (22 manufacturing industries)® D54. Sales of retail stores (23 types of stores) 1 -month span 6-month span 1-month span 9-month span 1969 January February March 91.7 71.7 73.3 86.7 76.7 73.3 54.2 62.5 91.7 83.3 70.8 77.1 68.2 72.7 75.0 81.8 79.5 84.1 69.6 60.9 21.7 73.9 82.6 71.7 April May June 51.7 56.7 63.3 75.0 68.3 58.3 45.8 66.7 70.8 75.0 72.9 62.5 84.1 79.5 84.1 90.9 90.9 88.6 73.9 41.3 54.3 67.4 65.2 56.5 July August September 51.7 55.0 48.3 53.3 50.0 50.0 45.8 54-2' 37.5 45.8 56.2 41.7 77.3 68.2 77.3 86.4 86.4 81.8 45.7 50.0 30.4 50.0 52.2 56.5 October November December 50.0 45.0 63.3 43.3 46.7 43.3 43.8 62.5 45.8 33.3 41.7 33.3 68.2 84.1 72.7 81.8 81.8 72.7 63.0 34.8 60.9 73.9 65.2 87.0 1970 January February March 45.0 41.7 45.0 33.3 35.0 31.7 37.5 52.1 45.8 56.2 33.3 25.0 86.4 77.3 72.7 79.5 77.3 75.0 60.9 58.7 50.0 78.3 82.6 82.6 April May June . . . 25.0 .21.7 26.7 21.7 16.7 16.7 56.2 25.0 54.2 37.5 r29.2 r20.8 68.2 70.5 56.8 77.3 84.1 86.4 82.6 54-3 39.1 91.3 82.6 82.6 July August September 35.0 23.3 58.3 20.0 r20.0 pl6.7 54.2 r50.0 25.0 rl2.5 r22.9 P43.8 61.4 70.5 77.3 75.0 81.8 77.3 56.5 65.2 50.0 p82.6 (NA) October November December r33.3 r35.0 P55.0 r41.7 r58.3 P56.2 75.0 61.4 56.8 r67.4 P52.2 (NA) 1971 January February March April May June ... July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed in the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown, The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Graphs of these series are shown on page 60. ltd) JANUARY 1971 91 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change 1970 Diffusion index components May July June August September October November December P Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING x (Average weekly hours) - 39.8 (29) o Durable goods industries: Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone clay and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries + + - 40.8 39.7 38.8 41.3 40.2 40.6 41.1 39.7 40.3 40.1 38.7 + + + o + + - 41.1 39.5 41.6 40.2 38.6 Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products + 40.7 - 37.1 - 39.8 - 35.1 - 41.8 37.7 + 41.5 + 42.5 - 40.0 + 37.7 + + + - 40.3 37.4 40.0 35.2 41.6 o o + + - 37.7 41.5 42.6 40.4 37.6 All manufacturing industries 39.8 -f- 40.6 39.6 38.9 41.1 40.4 40.9 40.1 - (76) (55) + + + + + o + 40.3 39.8 39.9 41.2 40.7 41.3 41.1 40.4 + + 40.3 39.1 + + + + + o o + o 40.2 37.9 40.3 35.5 41.7 37.9 41.5 42.6 40.8 37.6 a. 2 39.8 (19) - 39.3 (10) + 39.4 (76) + + 29,977 + 30,028 + (63) Primary metals Blast furnaces steel mills Iron and steel foundries Other primary metals Fabricated metal products Metal cans barrels and drums Hardware, structural metal and wire products Other fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Steam engines and turbines* Internal combustion engines* Farm machinery and equipment. Construction, mining* and material handling*. Metalworking machinery* Miscellaneous equipment* Machine shops Special industry machinery* General industrial machinery* Office and store machines* Service industry machinery* + 4,874 2,234 (51) + + 4,932 2,302 + 31,399 (54) 4,894 2,387 (57) + 39.7 (69) + o _ - 40.4 39.8 39.0 41.0 40.4 40.6 40.9 39.9 40.7 40.0 38.6 + _ 39.7 39.6 38.3 40.9 40.9 39.8 40.1 39.2 39.8 39.4 38.1 + 40.1 - 1-39.2 + r39.2 + 41.0 - r39.9 + 40.1 + 40.4 + 39.7 o 39.8 + 1-39.8 + 1-38.3 + + + o + + + r40.3 r39.8 39.4 r41.0 r39.5 r40.0 r40.6 39.5 39.7 r39.9 r38.6 + + o + + + 40.5 40.3 39.4 41.4 39-9 40.6 o + + o 40.6 39.6 40.2 39.5 38.6 + o 40.7 37.4 39.9 35.1 41.7 - 40.0 36.1 38.8 34.2 41.4 + + + + + 40.5 r38.1 r39.6 1-34.9 r41.7 + o + o 40.3 r38.7 39.6 r35.4 r41.7 + + + - 40.6 36.5 39.7 35.5 41.5 + - 37.6 41.3 43.1 40.4 36.8 + - 37.4 42,0 43.0 40.0 36.5 o + + 1-37.4 1-41.3 r43.2 1*39.6 37.0 + o + r37.5 41.3 1-42.9 r39.4 1*37.2 + o + o - 37.6 41.3 43.1 39.4 37.1 - D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries r39.6 - 30,537 - 29,856 4,842 2,310 ... - 28,504 (63) (34) + 2 - 4,709 2,253 +r29,009 - 4,348 1,977 + 30,088 (60) (29) + r4,544 2,057 (49) + 4,926 (NA) + + 3,509 3,391 + + 5,468 + } 480 3,304 + 3,302 3,524 ... (NA) 3,333 + 692 285 ... + 541 + 5,401 5,172 l} 319 l) + + 768 277 + + + 5,367 5,346 476 If 434 -} 386 714 278 + 727 255 + + + 543 + + (NA) , 5,351 , 5,253 :> 464 :> 549 :) (NA) + + + + + + 3,220 ... + + + + + + + 781 307 708 270 + + 529 '+ + 542 ... + + 550 ... 523 + I + + + + 4- 672 - (NA) 262 + (NA) + + 581 - (NA) ... NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers;: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = fall ing. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available. p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes producers' capital goods industries that comprise series 24. are seasonally adjusted by source agency. 2See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill. 92 JANUARY 1971 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con. 1970 Diffusion index components May June July September August October November December D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS-INDUSTRIES1 -Continued (Millions of dollars) 4,052 Electrical machinery Electrical transmission distr. equipment* Electrical industrial apparatus* HniiQphnld annlijinppc Radio and TV Communication equipment! Electronic components Other electrical machinery* :> ™... + + + + + 3,721 4,113 3,921 ;} 755 1} 715 -} 787 + 901 + 1,223 + + + + + + + 77 ° +} ™ 1} 1,380 + + + 6,062 7,026 (NA) :} (NA) 1,208 + (NA) + r6,310 6,824 + _ + ... + + - ^03 + 821 + 7,559 ... 4,051 3,954 + ' ... + + + In^trnrnpntQ tntsl Lumber total Furniture total Stone clay and glass total Other durable goods total 8,076 7,304 +} + 1,126 + + 6,830 Motor vehicles and parts total Complete aircraft"!" Aircraft parts t Shipbuilding and railroad equipment* nthpr trzin^nftrtjitinn pniiinmpnt 1,453 + - 3,606 + + + + + + + + _ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2 (1941-43 - 10) - Index of 500 stock prices 76.06 - Coal bituminous Food composite Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers) Textile products Paper Publishing + + + _ _ _ _ ; - Chemicals . Drugs Oil composite Building materials composite Steel Metal fabricating ... _ _ "~ .... + + + + + 75.72 + + + + + + + + ... 77.92 + + + + + + + ... + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + o + 84.37 - (72) (96) - + + 82.58 + + + + + + + + + + + ... + (78) U2) + + Natural gas distributors Retail stores composite Life insurance 75.59 (48) (3) Percent rising of73 components^ + + + ... + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ... + + + + + 90.05 (99) (49) + ... 84.28 + + + + + + + + + + + + ... + + + + + + + + + + + NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary. r = revised. *Denotes producers' capital goods industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647. ©See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table E3. 3 Based on 73 components in May 1970, and on 72 components thereafter. BCH JANUARY 1971 93 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con. 1970 1971 Diffusion index components June May July August October November December January - 109.9 - 109.3 -• 106.8 - 105.6 (3D - .473 o .061 - 45.249 - 1.744 .155 .154 .251 o .224 - 1.238 + .162 + 15.010 .186 + .083 .419 o .061 - 35.000 - 1.668 + .156 .149 .249 .222 + 1.286 + .165 + 17.137 + .189 .082 September D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2 Industrial materials price index (1957-59-100) - 118.0 - 112.8 - 115.3 111.6 - rlio.9 (Dollars) Percent rising of 13 components Copper scrap (Ib.) Lead scrap (Ib.) Steel scrap (ton) Tin(lb.) Zincflb.) Burlap (yd.) Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average Print cloth (yd.), average Wool tops (Ib.) Hides (Ib.). Rosin (100 Ib.) Rubber (Ib.) Tallow (Ib.) + 0 + o + + + + (54) .652 .074 43.909 1.824 .160 .159 .251 .225 1.435 .167 12.767 .214 .082 (19) .587 o .074 + 45.398 1.726 o .160 .156 .250 .224 1.410 .159 o 12.767 .204 .080 (46) + + + + + + .594 .068 43.599 1.669 .161 .155 .252 .223 1.382 .168 12.806 .190 .083 (46) (42) .527 .063 + + + o + + - 42.055 + 1.769 H- + .254 ' o .223 + 1.369 .161 o 12.870 o .194 o .160 .162 .081 .524 .061 46.315 1.772 .156 .163 .254 .224 1.296 .161 12.780 .194 .076 D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS (Thousands) Avg. weekly initial claims ... + Northeast region: Boston (7) Buffalo (21) Newark (11) New York (1) Paterson (20) Philadelphia (4) Pittsburgh (10) Rochester (26) North Central region: Chicago (2) Cincinnati (22) Cleveland (9) Columbus (25). Detroit (5) .. Indianapolis (23) Kansas City (19) Milwaukee (18) Minneapolis (13) St. Louis (8) South region: Atlanta (16).. Baltimore (12) Dallas (15) Houston (14) West region: Los Angeles (3) Portland (24) San Francisco (6) Seattle (17) 313 + 303 + (43) (64) Percent rising of 47 components + + + + + + + + + + + + ... + -f. + + + + + ... + + + - + + + + + ... + ... -I_i_ + + + + ... + + + ... + - . + - + + ... + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + _i_ + .}. + + + + ... ... ... + + + + + + + • •• - + + + + ... -j+ + _ .148 .247 o .222 -. 1.244 .159 - 16.932 + .197 .076 + + + o o o + - .393 .048 39.926 1.590 .150 .149 .247 .222 1.179 .159 16.998 .188 .073 3 341 (53) (32) (43) (42) (19) .405 ™ .055 + 35.851 - 1.587 ~ .155 333 (57) + 291 (70) + + + '+ .)- 338 288 265 (60) (42) + ... - ... + + + + + + + + + + 4 + + + + + + ... + + + + + + + NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. Average for January 5, 12, and 19. 2 Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. 3 The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises: (-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month. Directions of change are shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank. 94 JANUARY 1971 !!€!» ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con. 1970 Diffusion index components May June July August October1* September December p November 1 D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS (Thousands of employees) All nonagricultural payrolls Percent rising of 30 components Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery Electrical equipment Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products . Paper and allied products. Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products Mining Contract construction Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retai 1 trade Finance, insurance, real estate Servke and miscellaneous Federal government State and local government - 70,839 (22) - 70,629 141 501 375 506 - 1,037 - 1,060 - 1,340 - 1,294 - 1,317 286 329 - 1,216 + 68 852 - 1,206 551 681 606 o 118 412 284 620 » 3,351 + 4,478 + 3,859 - 11,109 + 3,677 + 11,572 - 2,768 + 9,833 137 495 372 505 - 1,034 - 1,057 - 1,321 + 1,297 - 1,309 280 327 D47. All industrial production Percent rising of 24 components 2 Durable goods: Primary and fabricated metals Primary metal products Fabricated metal products Machinery and related products Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Clay, glass, and lumber Clay glass and stone products Lumber and products Furniture and miscellaneous Furniture and fixtures Miscellaneous - 169.0 (25) - 70,587 (27) - 1,214 67 842 + 1,2U 549 679 603 o 118 + 434 + 286 o 620 - 3,324 + 4,511 - 3,849 - 11,078 + 3,679 - 11,532 - 2,689 + 9,870 - 70,414 (35) + + - (23) + 70,531 - 70,182 (58) - r70,076 + 70,364 (35) (33) (55) 129 131 491 491 o 372 373 500 499 + 1,033 - 1,031 1,058 + 1,060 1,316 - 1,288 1,289 - 1,266 1,290 - 1,285 278 274 324 323 128 + 495 + 377 + 505 + 1,047 + 1,067 - 1,281 - 1,258 + 1,286 273 322 - 1,193 63 + 839 + 1,210 + 543 + 680 + 606 115 + 436 276 + 621 - 3,262 - 4,511 + 3,850 + 11,111 + 3,684 + 11,622 - 2,649 o 9,936 - 1,184 o 63 830 - 1,196 535 676 603 + 116 423 275 o 621 + 3,278 o 4,509 + 3,857 + 11,154 + 3,696 + 11,665 + 2,654 + 10,064 + rl,197 + r64 r828 + rl,203 + 537 675 r598 o 116 r420 r271 + 626 + r3,300 - r4,494 - r3,852 - rll,079 + r3,711 + rll,695 + r2,66l + rlO,lll + - 1,198 + 69 837 - 1,206 540 676 602 117 433 277 + 619 - 3,305 - 4,520 - 3,840 o 11,072 - 3,670 + 11,521 - 2,659 + 9,937 - 165.8 - 162.3 - rl6l.6 + 163.9 - 1,203 o 67 839 + 1,223 544 + 680 -I605 o 118 + W* 285 618 - 3,314 + 4,539 + 3,856 o 11,077 - 3,676 - 11,514 - 2,668 + 9,923 o - 122 495 374 500 1,005 1,002 1,233 1,213 977 267 316 - 118 490 373 r496 r983 r986 rl,217 rl,!8l r967 r264 r313 + + + + + + 116 487 370 497 1,012 1,039 1,229 1,220 1,220 260 324 - 1,195 o 64 + 832 - 1,200 533 + 677 596 + 117 + 422 270 625 + 3,308 - 4,443 + 3,859 - 10,968 + 3,720 + 11,718 - 2,652 + 10,151 INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1 (1957-59-100) - 168.8 (54) + 169.2 - 168.8 (50) (54) (25) (58) (42) (56) + 142*.6 - 171.4 + U&.1 + 172.3 + 145!2 + 172.5 + 145.6 - 171.9 - 1-142.6 - rl69.2 - 134.4 - 160.7 - 1-129! 3 + - r!59.1 + - 187 !l - 196.3 + 157.3 - 183.6 185!2 + 197.7 + 159.9 + 187.9 o 185.2 + 199.1 - 158.1 - 187.0 183!6 + 199.9 - 156.7 - 183.3 18C)!6 - 194.5 - 139.0 - 181.8 - 176! 1 - 191.9 - 122.0 - 181.3 - 152.6 149*.4 + 116.1 - 107.6 - 148*.8 + 110.5 + + - i-us!1? - 108.2 - 148*.3 + pllO.l + + + + 15o!l 114-2 rl72! 5 rl87.5 r!22.5 r!8l.8 r!35.1 r!48.8 (NA) 173^8 172." 5 + 172.9 - 171.7 + 173.' 9 + rl74'. 2 174*4 - 163.6 - 162.6 - 162.0 - 159.1 - 157.7 - 156.3 + rl58.8 + + + + 132 163 173 185 142 177 135 150 (NA) 174 156 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded. 2 KCII JANUARY 1971 95 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con. 1970 Diffusion index components May July June August September October November December D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued (1957-59=100) Nondurable goods: Textiles apparel and leather Textile mill products Apparel products Leather and products - H7.8 - 145.9 - 145.3 + •• - 137.7 + 139.0 + 140.9 95.6 + 104.5 99.3 Paper and printing Paper and products Printing and publishing - Chemicals petroleum and rubber Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products - 24l'.4 + - 146.5 + - 212.2 + 243*2 147.8 227.8 o 243*3 - 145.5 + 244.8 Foods, beverages, and tobacco Foods and beverages Tobacco products - 143^1 117.8 + 140.7 120.7 + + + + 134.2 131.9 + 124.3 + 135.1 - - 151*8 142.8 + 150*3 143.0 + + Minerals: Coal Crude oil and natural gas Metal, stone, and earth minerals Metal mining Stone and earth minerals U6.1 140.7 93.6 - r!45.7 - r!39.3 + 94.6 - r!34.4 P146.3 + I-U5.9 + - P138.6 + p97.1 P134 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NO (NA) p!58 (NA) p!52 174*5 - 170.8 + 172*6 + 172*9 - rl66*2 + rl66*3 o pl66.3 154-8 + 155.2 - 154.6 - rl54.3 - r!51.5 - r!50.2 + r!52.4 239*8 147.5 236.9 + 1*240.8 + 150.3 - r221.4 - + r222.8 r240*2 + P241.3 r!50.1 + P155.6 (NA) p219.1 + + - 141.6 121.8 + rl42.4 + 122.9 + r!39.9 - r!39*6 + pH1.2 (NA) + p!24.1 + 141.1 + 126.6 - P141 (NA) (NA) 127.5 131.7 + + 128.5 136.5 + 127.9 140.3 + 128.1 + rl41.5 - 127.2 140.8 + + 150.9 143.8 + - 152*3 142.3 - LU*5 r!40.5 + rl45.'l + rl42.0 + + p!53*8 P142.3 p!29 P139 p!50 (NA) (NA) + + 118.7 o 118.7 P224 (NA) (NA) (NA) D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2 (1957-59=100) All manufacturing industries + 117.1 + 117.4 (70) Durable goods: Lumber and wood products Furniture and other household durables Nonmetallic mineral products Iron and steel Nonferrous metals Fabricated structural metal products Miscellaneous metal products. . . General purpose machinery and equipment Miscellaneous machinery Electrical machinery and equipment Motor vehicles and equipment Miscellaneous products Nondurable goods: Processed foods and feeds Cotton products Wool products Manmade fiber textile products Apparel Pulp, paper, and allied products Chemicals and allied products Petroleum products refined Rubber and plastic products Hides, skins, leather, and related products + 118.0 o 118.0 + (70) (61) (57) 118.2 (77) 121.0 108.3 117.9 118.9 + o + 120.2 108.6 117.9 120.2 + + + 119.6 108.8 118.1 120.4 + + + - 120.2 108.9 118.5 120.3 + + + + 120.4 109.0 118.7 120.9 + + + + + + + 157.2 117.3 128.3 127.9 - 155.0 + 118.1 + 130.4 + 128.2 + + + 152.6 119.1 131.2 129.8 + + + 151.1 119.4 131.6 130.1 + + + 148.4 119.6 133.1 130.6 + + + + 122.9 107.5 109.4 118.2 + + + + 123.1 108.2 109.5 121.0 + + 123.0 108.6 109.4 121.4 + + + + 123.2 108.8 109.5 121.5 + + + + o - 124.1 + 105.8 + 103.8 - 124.8 105.9 102.8 + 126.6 - 105.8 - 102.6 + - 126.1 + 106.3 + 102.4 - 89.0 88.0 88.4 (61) (75) + o + + 89.5 118.6 119.2 109.2 119.1 121.6 (57) + + - 117.9 109.6 119.5 120.7 + + o 117.1 109-9 120.0 120.7 + + + 120.1 133.5 + 131.7 + 144.3 119.9 134.0 132.0 + o + 120.3 134.0 132.9 124.0 109.4 109.7 121.9 + + + + 124.5 109.5 115.0 122.0 + + + + 125.3 109.8 115.3 122.2 + + + + 126.4 110.1 115.9 122.3 126.2 106.4 102.0 + - 124.9 106.7 100.9 + o 124.8 106.9 100.9 + 123.6 107.6 100.0 84.8 84.3 + 120.0 119.5 112.8 + 101.6 o + 105.4 + - 105.7 + + 128.4 112.6 101.6 109.9 106.0 127.9 87.1 H7.5 85.7 + 118.0 + 118.4 o 118.4 + 119.0 + 119.6 + 119.9 + + o - 112.3 100.6 104.2 104.2 127.9 - 112.2 100.5 102.2 104.1 127.3 + + + + - 112.5 100.9 102.4 105.6 127.1 + + + o 112.3 101.1 103.1 106.3 127.1 + + + 112.4 100.9 103.8 106.0 127.3 + + o + + 113.0 101.4 103.8 106.1 127.9 Hl.l NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data are not seasonally adjusted. 2 96 JANUARY 1971 110 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con. 1970 Diffusion index components May August July June October1* September Novemberp December D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1 (Millions of dollars) - 30,502 + All retail sales Passenger car and other automotive dealers Tire, battery, accessory dealers Gasoline service stations Drug and proprietary stores Liquor stores o + + (NA) 6,408 2,388 3,247 322 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 575 o 373 + 661 296 575 + 386 650 + 295 + 580 + 380 + 658 324 603 387 + 627 + 304 + 597 398 655 332 + 590 396 676 325 876 318 + 936 281 + 857 452 924 + 292 848 + 443 + 931 + 290 851 + 445 958 o 278 + 856 + 402 + 958 279 861 + 433 953 + 275 + 894 409 975 286 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4,515 427 + 2,217 + 1,090 + 690 4,022 433 2,227 1,116 676 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) + + + (52) 613 387 627 + 284. + Variety stores Men's and boys' wear stores Women's apparel accessory stores Shoe stores 4,909 440 2,233 1,040 674 + + + + 6,364 2,341 3,151 307 5,068 415 2,237 1,044 678 + + o + + 5,113 431 2,237 1,055 693 + + + 5,090 432 2,156 1,071 710 + + + + 6,420 2,374 3,231 311 (67) (NA) 6,349 + 2,347 + 3,154 + 317 6,305 + 2,353 3,185 336 ••• (50) (65) 30,173 6,299 + 2,299 + 3,247 327 + + + • - 30,534 - + + Grocery stores Eating and drinking places Department stores Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . . Furniture home furnishings stores • Household appliance, TV, radio stores Lumber yards, building materials dealers Hardware stores (56) (39) (54) Percent rising of 23 components 30,518 + 30,729 + 30,781 + 30,885 5,214 438 2,165 1,101 687 o + + + + + 6,422 2,386 + 3,259 324 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. : falling. Only •"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately. KUI JANUARY 1971 97 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Q CONSUMER PRICES Year and month 133. Canada, 781. United index of consumer States, index of consumer prices® prices ® 132. United King- 135. West Germany, 136. France, dom, index of index of consumer index of consumer consumer prices® prices® prices® 138. Japan, index 137. Italy, index of consumer of consumer prices © prices ® (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 1969 January. . February March 124 125 126 127 127 128 140 141 142 128 128 129 155 155 156 167 167 169 142 142 143 April May June 126 127 128 129 130 131 143 143 144 129 129 129 156 157 158 171 171 171 U3 143 144 July August September 128 129 129 131 132 131 142 U3 144 129 129 130 158 159 160 175 175 177 145 145 145 October November December 1970 January February March 130 130 131 132 132 133 145 145 146 130 130 132 161 161 162 176 176 176 146 147 147 132 132 133 133 134 134 147 148 149 132 133 134 163 164 164 179 181 183 148 149 150 April May June 134 135 135 135 135 135 151 152 152 134 134 135 165 166 167 184 182 181 150 151 151 July August September 136 136 137 135 135 135 153 (NA) 135 134 134 168 168 169 182 183 188 151 152 153 October November December 1971 January February March 137 138 (NA) 135 (NA) 135 136 (NA) 169 (NA) 191 (NA) 155 (NA) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 62. JANUARY 1971 ItCII INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Year and month 47. United States, index of industrial production 123. Canada, index of industrial production 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production 126. France, index of industrial production 125. West Germany, index of industrial production (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 128. Japan, in- 121. OECD,1 dex of industrial European countries, index of production industrial production 127. Italy, index of industrial production (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 1969 January February March 169 170 171 185 188 191 Ul 142 144 183 181 180 187 189 191 403 410 405 180 181 182 236 232 239 April May . June 172 172 174- 188 186 187 143 U3 144 186 188 183 190 195 198 428 430 435 184 185 186 241 236 242 July August September 175 174 174 187 183 183 145 U3 U3 188 188 187 190 197 193 446 443 458 187 187 185 243 238 227 October ... . November December 173 171 171 186 189 190 U3 146 145 191 186 190 197 207 203 469 466 477 187 189 188 214 212 220 January February March 170 170 171 192 195 191 143 rU5 148 197 197 196 205 207 208 476 487 493 193 195 196 248 250 250 April May . June 170 169 169 192 190 191 148 142 r!45 199 195 191 207 211 204 504 502 523 196 195 r!93 248 245 243 July August September 169 169 166 190 191 191 rl43 r!U4 r!46 196 196 195 206 205 r202 525 519 525 r!95 r!94 194 248 r235 250 October . November December 162 rl62 pl64 p!88 (NA) P148 (NA) P195 (NA) p206 (NA) r522 P517 (NA) P196 (NA) p245 (NA) 1970 1971 January February March April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 63. ^•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. BCD JANUARY 1971 99 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS i H STOCK PRICES Year and month 19. United States, 143. Canada, index 142. United Kingof stock prices® dom, index of index of stock prices, 500 common stock prices ® stocks ® (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 146. France, index 145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index 147. Italy, index of stock prices ® index of stock of stock prices ® of stock prices ® prices ® (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 228 230 231 279 282 279 135 133 136 (1957-59=100) 1969 January February March. 207 206 201 214 291 113 213 208 282 270 127 137 April May . June.. 205 212 201 213 224 209 266 253 235 136 IVi 131 233 243 247 293 302 304 152 153 150 July August September 192 191 192 199 199 204 227 226 229 128 134 135 238 247 252 300 293 310 146 152 153 October November December 1970 January February March 194 195 185 206 213 225 227 234 144 141 147 262 274 266 324 336 350 162 163 156 183 177 180 216 212 216 246 238 232 155 150 147 255 248 247 367 362 378 157 156 157 April May June 174 154 153 210 182 176 228 204 199 142 137 134 245 226 216 376 325 327 162 152 144 July August September 154 158 167 174 137 143 203 209 213 138 140 137 212 223 214 329 331 324 140 145 139 October November December 1971 January February March 171 171 182 146 p!43 p!50 227 213 rp213 138 rp!39 rp!37 r211 rp204 p!98 320 319 P303 137 p!30 p!29 p!91 p!54 p2!8 p!52 p208 P315 p!23 214 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 64. 100 JANUARY 1971 ltd) APPENDIXES A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Change? Period covered Quarterly series Cl 1 C i/c I/C for QCD span QCD Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C QCD A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT 200. 205 210 215 217. 220. 222 GNP in current dol lars GNP in 1958 dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP in current dollars Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars National income, current dollars Personal income current dollars 1.59 JIQ '53-IIQ 70.... IQ '53-IIQ 70.... 1.18 |IQ '53-IIQ 70.... .61 IQ '53-IIQ 70.... 1.35 IQ '53-IIQ 70. . . . 1.01 IQ '53-IIQ 70.... 1.66 IQ '53-IIQ 70.... 1.54 .30 .30 .11 .29 .30 .33 .22 1.54 1.07 .60 1.27 .88 1.57 1.51 .19 .28 .18 .23 .33 .21 .15 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .19 .28 .18 .23 .33 .21 .15 7.67 3.63 17.25 6.27 4.93 7.67 13.80 1.30 1.30 1.33 1.30 1.25 1.35 1.25 9.86 6.90 34.50 9.86 6.90 11.50 13.80 7.67 3.63 17.25 6.25 4.93 7.67 13.80 13.80 6.27 6.27 IQ '53-IIQ 70.... Disposable personal income current dollars IQ '53-IIQ 70.... Disposable personal income, constant dollars Per capita disposable personal income, current dol. IQ '53-IIQ 70.... Per capita disposable personal income, constant IQ '53-IIQ 70.... dollars 230. Total personal consumption expenditures, current IQ '53-IIQ 70.... dol lars 231. Total personal consumption expenditures, constant IQ '53-IIQ 70.... dollars 1.49 1.07 1.18 .27 .29 .26 1.44 1.00 1.12 .19 .29 .23 1 1 1 .19 .29 .23 13.80 6.27 6.27 1.35 1.35 1.30 69.00 9.86 9.86 .82 .29 .73 .40 1 .40 4.60 1.41 7.67 4.60 1.47 .33 1.43 .23 1 .23 9.86 1.25 69.00 9.86 1.02 .37 .98 .37 1 .37 5.31 1.21 7.67 5.31 232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods 233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, except automobi les IQ '53-IIQ 70.... 3.05 1.47 2.32 .64 1 .64 2.76 1.19 4.60 2.76 10 IQ IQ IQ 70.... 70.... 70.... 70.... 2.09 6.00 1.23 1.76 .85 3.62 .44 .20 1.84 4.01 1.19 1.73 .46 .90 .37 .12 1 1 1 1 .46 .90 .37 .12 4.31 2.38 6.27 69.00 1.28 1.25 1.30 1.25 6.90 3.45 34.50 69.00 4.31 2.38 6.27 69.00 IQ f 53-IIQ 70. ... IQ '53-IIQ 70.... IQ '53-IIQ 70.... 243. Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment . . IQ '53-IIQ 70.... 244 Fixed investment, residential structures IQ '53-MQ 70.... 4.56 2.56 2.74 3.13 3.44 2.08 .83 1.65 1.15 1.12 3.37 2.38 2.13 2.67 3.10 .62 .35 .78 .43 .36 1 1 1 1 1 .62 .35 .78 .43 .36 2.56 4.60 2.30 2.88 3.45 1.41 1.33 1.23 1.23 1.33 4.31 6.27 4.06 4.31 6.27 2.56 4.60 2.30 2.88 3.45 252 Exports of goods and services 253 Imports of goods and services 3.79 3.18 1.95 2.22 2.40 1.86 .57 .92 2.63 2.37 1.83 1.91 .91 .79 .31 .48 1 1 1 1 .91 .79 .31 .48 2.76 2.76 5.75 2.88 1.35 1.30 1.28 1.28 5.31 6.27 13.80 4.31 2.76 2.76 5.75 2.88 2.19 '53-IIQ 70.... '53-IIQ 70. . . . 2.35 .83 .44 1.82 2.34 .45 .19 1 1 .45 .19 2.65 23.00 1.23 1.28 4.60 23.00 2.65 23.00 224 225. 226. 227. 236. Personal consumption expend., nondurable goods . 237. Personal consumption 'expenditures, services .... '53-110 '53-IIQ '53-IIQ '53-IIQ 240. Gross private domestic investment, total 241 Total nonresidential fixed investment IQ IQ IQ 262. Federal Gov. purchases of goods and services . . .IQ 264. Federal Government purchases of goods and IQ 266. State and local gov. purchases, goods and services IQ '53-IIQ 70.... '53-IIQ 70.... '53-IIQ 70.... '53-IIQ 70.... 270 274 280 282 284 286. Final sales durable goods Final sales nondurable goods Compensation of employees proprietors' income Rental income of persons Corp. profits and inventory valuation adjustment. . IQ 10 IQ IQ IQ IQ '53-IIQ '53-110 '53-IIQ '53-IIQ '53-IIQ '53-IIQ 70.... 70.... 70.... 70.... 70.... 70- • • • 2.19 1.30 1.68 1.21 .99 4.10 .87 .49 .24 .61 .35 2.10 1.88 1.24 1.64 .97 .91 3.20 .46 .40 .14 .62 .38 .66 1 1 1 1 1 1 .46 .40 .14 .62 .38 .66 3.29 6.27 9.86 2.46 9.86 2.88 1.30 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.35 1.21 7.67 17.25 9.86 5.75 6.27 3.63 3.29 6.27 9.86 2.46 9.86 2.88 288 290 292. 294. Net interest Gross saving private and government Personal saving Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment IQ '53-IIQ 70.... IQ '53-IIQ 70..-. IQ '53-IIQ 70-... 3.85 4.67 8.87 .89 2.28 6.87 3.81 3.61 4.90 .23 .63 1.40 1 1 2 .23 .63 .50 23.00 3.14 1.53 1.28 1.21 1.30 23.00 6.27 4.06 23.00 3.14 2.34 IQ '53-IIQ 70.... IQ '53-IIQ 70.... 8.98 1.82 5.35 .34 6.25 1.78 .85 .19 1 1 .85 .19 2.16 23.00 1.28 1.30 IQ ilQ 'IQ IQ 8.56 4.85 1.48 2.90 4.46 2.79 .30 .97 6.52 3.74 1.46 2.65 .68 .75 .21 .37 1 1 1 1 .68 .75 .21 .37 2.65 2.65 13.80 3.94 1.25 1.21 1.21 1.16 3.14 4.06 13.80 6.09 2.65 2.65 13.80 3.94 .91 '53-IIQ 70.... '53-IIQ 70.... 5.01 '53-IVQ '69 ... 10.29 '53-IIQ 70-... 1.59 '53-IIQ 70.... 1.18 .36 .86 6.50 .30 .30 .79 4.86 6.99 1.54 1.07 .46 .18 .93 .19 .28 1 1 1 1 1 .46 .18 .93 .19 .28 4.06 4.06 2.31 7.67 3.63 1.28 1.30 1.24 1.30 1.30 5.31 5.31 3.94 9.86 6.90 4.06 4.06 2.31 7.67 3.63 1.12 .74 .31 5.63 1.45 2.55 1.81 1.45 4.61 1.77 .44 .41 .21 1.22 .82 1 1 1 2 1 .44 .41 .21 .55 .82 3.40 4.60 6.57 1.95 2.25 1.16 1.35 1.31 1.30 1.13 5.67 5.75 9.20 3.55 3.46 3.40 4.60 6.57 2.37 2.25 3.14 23.00 2.16 23.00 B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 11 *16 57 *61. 68. New capital appropriations manufacturing Corporate profits after taxes Final sales Business expend., new plant and equipment Labor cost per unit of gross product, IQ 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing . IQ IQ *200 GNP in current dollars IQ *205 GNP in 1958 dollars IQ '53-IIQ 70.... '53-IIQ 70.... '53-IIQ 70.... '53-IVQ '69 • • . C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS 61a. Business expend., new plant and equipment 412 Manufacturers' inventories total book value 430a New car purchases by households A3R. Index of consumer sentiment IQ'57-IVQ'69 IQ'57-IIIQ'68 IQ '57-IIIQ '68 IQ '59-IVQ '68 nn 'R7.nin »CQ .. •• •« •• .. 2.88 2.30 1.51 8.10 2.73 See definitions of measures at end or part 1. 101 A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued Period covered Quarterly series T Cl C I/C I/C for QCD span QCD Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C QCD D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS 252. 253. 264. 530. 532. Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services National defense purchases/ Liquid liabilities to all foreigners Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign official agencies 534 536 537 540. U S official reserve assets Merchandise exports adjusted Merchandise imports adjusted Investment income, military sales, and other services, exports 541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures, -. . IQ '60-IIQ 70. . . . 3.79 IQ'60-IIQ'70.... 3.18 IQ'53-IIQ70.... 2.19 2.62 IQ '60-IQ '70 .... 2.40 1.86 .83 1.06 2.63 2.37 1.82 2.09 IQ '60-IQ 70 .... 4.38 2.85 2.84 IQ'6(HQ70.... IQ '60-IQ 70 .... IQ '60-IQ 70 .... 2.19 4.59 4. 40 1.14 3.39 2.60 IQ '60-IQ 70 .... 3.49 IQ '60-IQ 70 .... IQ IQ IQ IQ IQ 542 543. 544 545 546 Income on U S investments abroad Income on foreign investments in U.S Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S Payments by U S travelers abroad Military sales to foreigners 547. 548. 549. 601. 602. U S military expenditures abroad IQ '60-IQ 70... . Receipts from transportation and other services. . . IQ '60-IQ 70.... Payments for transportation and other services . . .IQ '60-IQ 70 .... Fed. receipts, nat'l. income and productaccts IQ'53-IIQ70.... Fed. expend., nat'l. income and product accts. . . IQ'53-IIQ70.... . '60-IQ '60-IQ '60-IQ '60-IQ '60-IQ 70... • 70.... 70 .... 70.... 70.... 1 1 1 1 .91 .79 .45 .51 2.76 2.76 2.65 2.35 1.35 1.30 1.23 1.29 5.31 6.27 4.60 2.86 2.76 2.76 2.65 2.35 1.00 2 .33 2.11 1.14 3.08 2.60 1.80 2.58 3.16 .63 1.31 .82 1 2 1 .63 .62 .82 2.86 1.74 3.08 1.29 1.38 1.29 3.64 3.64 6.67 2.86 3.55 3.08 2.14 2.60 .82 1 .82 1.90 1.33 8.00 1.90 2.57 1.34 2.07 .65 1 .65 2.50 1.21 6.67 2.50 5.64 4.98 3.32 3.88 18.40 3.72 1.89 1.73 2.58 14.24 3.72 4.77 2.69 2.61 9.02 1.00 .40 .64 .99 1.58 2 1 1 1 2 .40 .40 .64 .99 .68 1.90 5.00 3.08 2.35 1.43 1.18 1.18 1.38 1.21 1.25 3.64 6.67 4.44 3.64 2.22 3.00 5.00 3.08 2.35 2.17 3.56 2.60 3.34 2.53 2.15 2.16 1.69 2.42 .90 .90 2.51 1.98 1.84 2.33 1.90 .86 .85 1.31 .38 .47 1 1 2 1 1 .86 .85 .58 .38 .47 2.11 3.08 1.82 3.63 4.60 1.29 1.25 1.21 1.30 1.25 3.64 13.33 6.67 6.27 6.27 2.11 3.08 2.79 3.63 4.60 8.48 .83 6.81 .39 4.67 .67 1.46 .58 2 1 54 .58 1.47 3.00 1.30 1.21 3.63 6.27 3.24 3.00 .91 .79 .45 .51 E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal IQ'53-IIQ70 ... IQ'53-IIQ70 .•• *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators. BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1 The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957). and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with a QCD greater than "2" are shown as "3". "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the unadjusted series. "T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad justed series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of the period of QCD. WhenQCDis "3", no T/C ratio is shown for the QCD period. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. T is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.), 2-quarter spans (1st quarter-3d quarter, 2d quarter-4th quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, 102 "Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of Cl is 1.47 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.30 for I and 3.63 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 3.24 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a 2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR from 1.47 for CI to 3.24 for the QCD moving average indicates that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not. A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes Period covered Quarterly series Unit of measure CI C 1 r/c QCD I/C for QCD span Average duration of run (ADR) CI 1 C QCD 2.72 A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Ann. rate, bil.dol.... IQ'53-IIQ 70... ...do 250 Net exports of goods and services 271. Change in business inventories, durable goods. IQ'53-IIQ'70... ...do 275. Change in bus. inventories, nondurable goods , IQ'53-IIQ 70... ...do IQ'53-IIQ 70... ...do 7QR finx/prnrnpnt ^iirnln^ nr Hpfirit tnt?il IQ'53-IIQ'70... 245 Change in business inventories total . . 2.75 1.82 .84 .48 2.34 1.48 1.42 1.17 2.89 1.44 1.59 .61 1.38 .56 2.46 1.14 .78 1.08 2.09 .59 2 1 2 2 1 .53 .78 .52 1.68 1.35 3.63 2.46 1.33 3.83 2.46 1.60 1.53 1.33 2.76 2.72 ..89 1.30 2.38 2.12 .59 3.00 1.38 4.06 3.00 2 .48 2.52 1.29 3.32 3.44 1 1 .95 .48 2.56 1.25 5.31 2.56 2.70 1.48 3.65 2.70 2 .53 1.68 1.35 3.63 2.72 B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS IQ'53-IVQ'68... Qents .22 .20 .46 .11 .31 .05 .33 .11 1.14 IQ'53-IIQ 70... Percent .... IQ'53-IIIQ'68... ...do IQ'53-IIQ 70 |... Ann. rate, bil.dol.... 2.76 1.82 1.60 IQ'57-IIIQ'68 .. Mil. cars ... 93.26 53.01 56.21 .94 1 .94 2.30 1.35 3.07 2.30 IQ'60-IIQ70... Mil. dot. o... 226.3 141.8 150.1 .94 1 .94 1.78 1.32 3.15 1.78 IQ '60-IIQ 70... ...do 615.4 409.5 333.0 1.23 2 1.78 1.32 2.41 2.67 Hn 736.5 499.0 ' 4 2 6 . 4 1.17 2 .66 1.86 1.46 2.41 2.35 IQ '60-IIQ 70... 705.9 501.4 352.1 1.42 2 .61 1.86 1.41 2.93 2.50 IQ '60-IIQ 70... IQ '60-NQ 70... Foreign direct investments in the U S IQ '60-HQ 70... U S direct investments abroad IQ '60-IIQ 70... Foreign purchases of U S securities U S purchases of foreign securities IQ '60-IIQ 70-.. Government grants and capital transactions, IQ'60-IIQ70... net 575. Banking and other capital transactions, net. . .IQ '60-IIQ 70... 600. Fed. balance, jnat'l. income and product accts. IQ'53-IIQ 70... o o o o o .30 o 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg, . . 22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate all industries *67 Bank rates on short-term bus loans© 245 Change in business inventories total 840.8 2 3 3 2 2 .62 1.71 1.46 1.46 1.21 2.56 1.86 2.22 2.00 2.56 2.44 2.11 2.35 .95 .48 1.14 C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS 480 Change in freight carloadings(u)i D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS 250. Balance on goods and services, excluding military grants 520. U.S. balance of payments, liquidity balance 1.23 522. U.S. balance of payments, official settlements IQ '60-IIQ 70 525. Net capital movements plus unilateral 527. Net capital movements plus unilateral 560 561 564 565 570. o ...do Ann. rate, bil.dol.... 580.0 430.0 79.8 65.7 38.0 239.4 87.7 181.1 133.4 190.4 139.0 114.0 105.2 75.2 1.35 1.73 2.17 1.32 1.52 309.8 327.2 243.5 244.4 143.6 163.6 1.70 1.49 2.96 1.55 2.32 4.37 1.53 3.69 C 11 ) C ) 1.52 1.41 .67 .45 1.71 1.32 2.73 1.32 1.17 2.73 2 2 .67 .76 1.52 1.46 1.28 2.16 2.35 1.32 2.05 1.82 .67 1 .67 2.38 1.35 4.06 2.38 .42 .49 .93 1 1 1 .42 .49 .93 3.14 1.33 5.31 3.14 2.82 1.41 3.65 2.04 1.36 3.27 2.82 2.04 E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES 207 GNP gap (potential less actual) IQ'53-IIQ 70... 850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing ...... IQ'53-IIIQ'68.. 857 Vacancy rate in total rental housing© IQ'56-IIQ'68... ...do Percent ...,do..... 1.72 .26 «Series included in the 1966 NBEB "short list" of 26 indicators, when QCD is "3". .69 .16 1.40 .17 ©Measures are based on unadjusted data. 1 Not shown BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2 These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for series with zero or negative data and for other series where it seems appropriate, such as series expressed in percent. Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series. All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1. 103 B. Current Adjustment Factors 19'H) Series 4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries1 5. Average weekly initial claims,' State unemployment insurance 13. New business incorporations 1 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg.2 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies1 3 37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, 49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 112 Change in business loans5 508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery. Apr. May 92.0 101.0 100.2 114.6 91.9 90.6 77.6 80.6 122.8 93.7 108.6 108.4 98.0 105.1 102.5 Jan. Feb. Mar. 84.2 81.7 151.4 110.6 June July 113.7 105.9 103.7 97.7 -356 -85 +73 -2 +251 100.3 100.5 109.3 106.0 105.5 106.4 107.0 +52 103.5 91.8 94.7 82.9 84.5 94.2 109.4 122.0 99.3 99.0 100.4 101.0 99.7 100.4 99.0 99.9 100.5 106.8 105.3 110.0 Sept. Oct. Nov. 111.1 121.8 110.8 93.5 82.7 84.5 71.0 80.3 99.1 135.2 91.7 93.4 100.2 82.0 103.2 102.9 95.6 -331 103.9 Dec. Aug. +148 +89 +33 -140 102.5 92.4 86.7 91.1 97.0 98.5 +228 95.2 109.4 97.7 109.7 115.8 106.3 93.8 79.3 101.9 101.0 98.6 99.7 98.8 99.2 100.9 100.3 100.8 101.5 99.6 99.1 99.4 99.2 100.2 97.4 97.5 100.9 93.7 90.4 95.7 99.8 99.7 102.6 101.7 114.6 104.2 84.8 90.9 616. Defense Department obligations, total 621. Defense Department obligations, procurement 94.7 82.8 91.6 94.8 94.0 147.4 98.4 81.6 75.5 87.0 89.6 92.8 199.1 54.4 95.5 144.6 113.1 76.8 90.3 625. Military contract awards in U.S D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB)6 . . . 86.9 -15 86.7 81.7 81.2 +15 97.7 • •• 176.1 103.9 -10 89.8 117.3 106.4 +10 75.9 • •• 95.9 NOTE: These series are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. •'•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to rounding. Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter. 3 These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program. ^Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.). 5 Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed. 6 l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index. 104 C. Historical Data for Selected Series This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series. Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available. Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been sea- See the sonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly "Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report for each series. and may be used to update the tables below. have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted Quarterly Monthly Annual Year Jan. Feb. 85. Mar. May Apr. June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ PERCENT CHANGE IN TOTAL U.S. MONEY SUPPLY (DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY) (ANNUAL RATEi PERCENT) II Q III Q IV Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1947... 1948... 1949. .. -3.23 2.19 -2.12 0.0 6.56 -6.36 0.0 8.70 -3.20 1.08 6.48 -2.14 2.16 4.30 -1.07 -2.15 1.07 2.14 -1.08 4.28 1.07 -2.16 4.26 -1.07 -1.08 -1.06 -1.07 0.0 4.25 -3.21 1.08 -2.12 -3.22 2.16 -1.77 -1.08 6.49 -2.14 0.36 3.20 0.71 -1.44 0.36 -2.50 1.08 -1.42 -0.27 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953. .. 1954... 3.24 5.16 3.91 -0.94 1.86 6.46 4.11 4.87 0.94 0.93 4.28 5.12 1.94 5.65 0.93 7.47 2.04 2.91 2.81 -5.57 5.30 4.07 3.87 1.87 10.26 4.22 4.06 4.82 0.0 1.85 5.26 5.06 2.88 0.93 3.70 4.19 5.04 3.83 0.93 3.68 2.09 8.03 6.68 -0.93 1.84 5.21 5.98 2.85 0.93 5.50 2.07 9.92 3.79 0.0 5.48 3.11 6.89 2.83 0.93 1.82 4.66 4.80 3.57 1.88 1.24 5.66 3.39 3.87 1.56 2.18 3.85 6.04 4.46 0.31 3.07 3.46 7.60 3.16 0.62 4.27 4.41 5.46 3.76 1.09 2.69 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 6.35 2.66 0.0 -3.53 5.95 8.12 0.0 -0.88 6.20 3.39 -2.69 1.77 0.88 2.64 5.06 2.69 2.65 0.0 4.40 2.52 6.27 -1.76 0.88 4.38 4.19 -1.78 1.77 -0.88 7.85 1.67 3.57 0.0 0.88 0.0 6.68 0.0 -2.65 0.88 6.07 -4.15 1.78 4.42 -2.63 3.45 -2.50 1.78 0.88 -2.63 5.16 -2.50 -2.66 2.64 -1.76 6.85 -1.67 2.67 2.64 -3.52 1.70 -5.86 3.93 1.48 0.0 1.77 4.80 2.39 0.89 0.0 5.54 2.79 1.78 0.59 -0.29 3. 17 0.01 0.60 2.05 -2.64 4.57 -3.34 2. 18 1.25 -0.73 3.76 1.06 1960... 1961... 1962. .. 1963... 1964... -1.68 1.69 1.64 5.67 3.91 -4.21 4.23 1.64 3.23 3.11 -2.54 3.37 3.28 3.22 3.88 -0.85 3.36 2.45 3.21 1.55 -4.24 2.51 0.0 4.80 5.41 -0.85 2.51 0.0 3.98 3.85 2.55 0.83 -1.63 4.77 8.44 4.25 3.34 -0.82 1.58 6.86 0.85 2.49 -0.82 1.58 5.30 0.0 4.15 4.09 6.31 4.53 -1.69 4.96 3.26 7.85 4.51 0.85 2.47 4.07 -2.34 1.50 -2.81 3.10 2.19 4.04 3.63 -1.98 2.79 0.82 4.00 3.60 2.55 2.22 -1.09 2.64 6.87 0.28 3.86 3.81 3.94 3.51 -0.63 2.99 1.43 3.66 4.40 1965... 1966... 1967. .. 1968... 1969... 2.24 6.43 -4.19 3.28 4.26 3.73 5.68 14.03 7.19 7.27 2.98 5.66 10.40 7.15 4.82 2.23 8.45 -3.44 5.17 5.40 2.22 -0.70 12.41 13.50 3.58 5.91 0.70 10.92 9.54 4.76 4.41 -4.89 9.46 8.83 4.15 4.40 1.40 7.38 6.89 -2.95 6.57 4.91 6.00 5.60 1.18 8.72 -3.49 5.31 4.34 2.37 3.61 -1.40 4.62 10.50 1.77 7.91 3.50 4.61 8.57 0.59 2.98 5.92 6.75 5.87 5.45 3.45 2.82 6.63 9.40 4.58 5.13 0.47 7.61 7.11 0.79 6.75 -0.46 4.85 7.80 1.58 4.58 2.19 6.46 7.55 3.10 3)18 1970... 1971... 98. PERCENT CHANGE IN TOTAL U.S. MONEY SUPPLY (DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY) AND COMMERCIAL BANK TIME DEPOSITS (ANNUAL RATEt PERCENT) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1947... 1948... 1949. .. 3!i>3 -1.63 3.36 0.0 0.0 5.87 -4.84 0.0 7.51 -2.43 1.63 5.80 -1.62 2.44 4.12 C.O -0.81 1.64 1.62 -0.81 6.57 1.62 -1.63 5.71 -0.81 -0.81 1.62 -0.81 0.0 4.87 -1.62 0.81 0.0 -2.44 1.63 -0.54 -0.54 5.81 -1.35 1.09 4.64 0.81 -1.08 2. 16 -1.62 0.81 -0.68 0.07 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 2.44 3.92 4.47 1.42 6.49 2.35 5.94 2.13 3.23 3.90 2.96 6.39 6.44 2.33 3.69 3.53 5.60 3.88 4.41 3.52 3.19 3.87 5.13 1.40 3.18 6.17 3.65 2.81 2.38 5.37 5.09 2.80 0.79 8.41 7.24 1.40 2.02 3.16 5.31 3.60 3.49 5.37 2.37 9.07 5.74 2.09 4.68 3.15 6.75 3.57 2.78 2.00 4.05 3.39 4.46 3.31 3.45 5.08 3.36 4.41 2.82 4.34 2.12 6.65 5.33 2.34 4.74 2.89 7.04 4.30 2.79 4.02 3.54 5.11 4.62 2.81 4.14 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958. . . 1959... 5.98 1.30 4.45 -1.24 7.27 0.0 2.53 14.29 -1.31 2.59 4.42 9.83 3.29 3.23 1.89 9.14 4.59 -0.64 3.77 7.86 0.0 3.22 1.25 10.81 3.27 1.29 3.76 4.76 0.0 0.0 3.12 7.71 3.26 5.14 0.62 3.53 1.95 1.28 1.24 4.11 -0.65 3.19 1.24 6.44 2.60 2.55 0.0 2.33 3.98 1.30 3.80 7.63 4.82 2.63 1.94 2.30 9.27 3.44 2.18 2. 14 2.50 5.33 0.57 1.30 2.34 0.83 4.29 -2.09 2.52 1.93 2.36 6.63 1.68 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964. .. -2.29 5.03 8.40 9.27 7.67 -4.58 10.02 10.94 8.23 7.18 -1.15 5.52 10.33 7.21 5.35 1.15 6.05 7.68 8.13 5.33 -2.30 7.11 3.56 7.12 8.84 2.30 6.52 5.58 7.55 7.46 6.32 5.95 8.58 6.46 5.11 5.89 4.52 6.92 3.38 6.88 5.05 4.21 -2.67 6.86 0.38 6.56 6.67 6.10 4.32 6.00 8.44 8.72 6.99 7.79 6.48 9.46 9.21 8.96 11.43 8.90 3.62 7.15 8.24 6.73 7.60 7.21 7.30 8.66 8.09 8.34 2.17 6.38 7.28 7.81 7.73 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 10.03 7.24 8.73 4.58 -1.19 10.78 6.44 18.05 9.46 2.09 7.39 7.16 12.45 6.79 0.30 6.53 11.99 5.28 3.54 1.49 6.90 6.31 14.02 8.66 0.60 9.29 2.58 13.86 7.32 8.41 3.68 12.33 11.40 9.15 3.67 10.51 11.92 10.66 5.12 10.42 11.80 13.70 -2.92 6.33 11.07 8.51 -1.83 7.62 11.88 0.30 9.61 7.32 7.24 13.27 2.11 9.40 6.95 13.08 6.94 0.40 7.57 6.96 11.05 6.51 0.99 9.41 4.16 11.09 11.71 -5.97 10.61 0.86 7.06 12.07 0.60 9.25 4.73 10.57 9.31 -0.99 1970... 1971... 859. REAL SPENDABLE AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS ON PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS (1957-59 DOLLARS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD ... ... ::: ;•; ••; ... ... ... ... 1964... 74.70 75.37 75.40 76.07 76.24 76.29 76.54 76.78 76.62 76.76 76.71 77.30 75.16 76.20 76.65 76.92 76.23 . . . . . 77.67 78.51 78.21 78.01 78.37 77.98 78.28 77.75 78.71 78.13 78.09 78.44 77.72 78.55 78.30 77.77 78.45 77.65 78.26 78.40 78.36 78.29 77.80 78.55 78.39 78.33 78.58 77.95 78.72 78.34 78.57 78.67 78.34 78.60 78.22 78.72 78.05 78.26 78.76 78.32 78.78 78.39 78.52 79.30 78.56 79.19 78.54 78.05 78.66 78.24 79.09 78.24 78.50 78.24 78.25 79.00 78.19 78.08 78.74 77.83 77.91 78.41 77.89 78.42 78.27 78.15 78.44 77.80 78.51 78.38 78.69 78.37 78.37 78.89 78.37 79.09 78.32 78.21 78.55 78.11 78.46 78.39 78.07 78.59 78.28 1965. 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969. 1970. . 1971. . ivised beginning \ JANUARY 1971 105 C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series. Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the "Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available. Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report and may be used to update the tables below. Quarterly Monthly Year Jan. Mar. Feb. Apr. May June July Sept. Aug. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ D23. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES— 13 INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS (PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS) II Q IIIQ Annual IV Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 38.5 30.8 76.9 30.8 61.5 38.5 53.8 38.5 53.8 61.5 30.8 53.8 7.7 53.8 61.5 30.8 46.2 46.2 30.8 38.5 28.2 64.1 35.9 5&!4 38.5 39.8 61.5 76.9 30.8 61.5 38.5 69.2 53.8 26.9 50.0 84.6 69.2 69.2 38.5 11.5 84.6 69.2 53.8 69.2 61.5 53.8 76.9 19.2 38.5 38.5 53.8 84.6 0.0 61.5 53.8 38.5 92.3 7.7 42.3 26.9 38.5 92.3 7.7 30.8 23.1 65.4 84.6 69.2 38.5 38.5 69.2 69.2 23.1 30.8 69.2 53.8 76.9 61.5 38.5 38.5 50.0 69.2 71.8 26.9 47.4 51.3 71.8 47.4 48.7 37.2 64.1 89.7 5.1 44.9 34.6 47.5 76.9 51.3 35.9 48.7 57.7 76.9 43.9 39.1 42.0 55.1 65.4 42.3 30.8 38.5 38.5 84.6 61.5 23.1 46.2 53.8 46.2 61.5 53.8 46.2 61.5 76.9 42.3 57.7 38.5 61.5 61.5 30.8 38.5 69.2 53.8 69.2 30.8 38.5 53.8 65.4 76.9 46.2 34.6 96.2 38.5 61.5 61.5 30.8 53.8 53.8 46.2 69.2 11.5 42.3 69.2 38.5 38.5 23.1 53.8 46.2 46.2 46.2 7.7 73.1 46.2 57.7 42.3 46.2 38.5 61.5 65.4 55.1 35.9 43.6 51.3 69.2 34.6 44.9 53.8 60.2 61.5 59.0 25.6 64.1 53.8 47.5 42.3 25.7 55.1 51.3 60.9 47.8 33.0 54.2 54.2 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 69.2 38.5 53.8 61.5 53.8 42.3 84.6 46.2 46.2 53.8 38.5 84.6 46.2 50.0 46.2 53.8 76.9 42.3 46.2 65.4 46.2 53.8 42.3 46.2 30.8 46.2 57.7 46.2 69.2 53.8 42.3 38.5 23.1 46.2 46.2 30.8 46.2 30.8 38.5 76.9 38.5 57.7 50.0 69.2 69.2 23.1 34.6 53.8 69.2 73.1 23.1 15.4 53.8 50.0 61.5 15.4 69.2 53.8 57.7 38.5 50.0 69.2 48.7 52.6 51.3 48.7 62.8 43.6 53.9 50.0 37.2 47.5 34.6 51.3 64.1 20.5 39.7 53.8 59.0 57.7 39.1 54.8 45.2 54.2 55.8 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 53.8 61.5 46.2 46.2 53.8 30.8 76.9 53.8 46.2 61.5 69.2 46.2 23.1 53.8 46.2 76.9 30.8 23.1 46.2 65.4 53.8 42.3 61.5 53.8 57.7 57.7 46.2 69.2 50.0 76.9 46.2 61.5 30.8 46.2 61.5 42.3 26.9 53.8 65.4 76.9 50.0 0.0 19.2 57.7 57.7 15.4 19.2 46.2 69.2 46.2 34.6 30.8 46.2 69.2 50.0 61.5 57.7 61.5 38.5 50.0 51.3 61.5 41.0 48.7 53.8 62.8 39.8 51.3 50.0 66.7 46.2 29.5 34.6 56.4 65.4 37.2 35.9 51.3 59.0 48.7 49.4 41,7 44.6 53.5 58.6 1948... 1949... 23.1 38.5 30.8 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 76.9 84.6 23.1 30.8 30.8 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1970... 1971... D23. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES— 13 INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS (PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS) 1949... 7.7 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 0.0 7.7 23.1 7.7 46.2 15.4 38.5 23.1 38.5 23.1 30.8 53.8 23.1 53.8 7.7 69.2 7.7 76.9 5.1 33.3 12 '.8 66.6 30.1 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 69.2 100.0 30.8 38.5 53.8 69.2 76.9 30.8 15.4 76.9 84.6 46.2 23.1 15.4 84.6 92.3 30.8 30.8 30.8 69.2 100.0 23.1 30.8 15.4 61.5 100.0 23.1 23.1 30.8 69.2 100.0 23.1 38.5 38.5 61.5 100.0 15.4 38.5 30.8 53.8 100.0 15.4 38.5 23.1 61.5 100.0 15.4 30.8 23.1 53.8 100.0 15.4 46.2 38.5 61.5 100.0 30.8 38.5 46.2 61.5 74.3 74.4 28.2 23.1 71.8 97.4 25.7 28.2 25.7 66.6 100.0 18.0 38.5 30.8 58.9 100.0 20.5 38.5 35.9 58.9 92.9 34.6 33.4 28.9 64.1 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 65.4 46.2 30.8 23.1 69.2 61.5 42.3 34.6 38.5 69.2 69.2 46.2 38.5 53.8 61.5 69.2 46.2 30.8 76.9 69.2 76.9 53.8 23.1 76.9 61.5 76.9 53.8 23.1 76.9 69.2 76.9 53.8 23.1 76.9 61.5 84.6 46.2 15.4 84.6 46.2 84.6 30.8 23.1 69.2 61.5 76.9 38.5 23.1 76.9 53.8 69.2 53.8 23.1 73.1 46.2 53.8 53.8 15.4 61.5 46.2 65.4 44.9 34.6 38.5 66.6 74.3 51.3 25.7 76.9 66.6 82.0 43.6 20.5 76.9 56.4 66.6 48.7 20.5 70.5 48.7 72.1 47.1 25.3 65.7 59.6 1960... 1961... 1962... 46.2 61.5 38.5 61.5 61.5 38.5 53.8 30.8 69.2 69.2 46.2 61.5 30.8 61.5 69.2 30.8 61.5 38.5 69.2 76.9 38.5 76.9 23.1 65.4 76.9 38.5 53.8 15.4 61.5 80.8 30.8 53.8 30.8 61.5 84.6 30.8 53.8 38.5 61.5 76.9 38.5 53.8 38.5 61.5 69.2 38.5 53.8 53.8 53.8 69.2 46.2 53.8 46.2 61.5 76.9 38.5 46.2 61.5 76.9 69.2 43.6 58.9 33.4 64.1 66.6 35.9 64.1 25.7 65.4 78.2 33.4 53.8 35.9 61.5 76.9 41.1 51.3 53.8 64.1 71.8 38.5 57.0 37.2 63.8 73.4 69.2 53.8 0.0 30.8 76.9 61.5 15.4 46.2 61.5 61.5 26.9 46.2 69.2 53.8 30.8 53.8 53.8 30.8 23.1 61.5 53.8 46.2 46.2 46.2 23.1 73.1 23.1 76.9 30.8 57.7 46.2 76.9 46.2 0.0 38.5 92.3 38.5 0.0 30.8 92.3 53.8 0.0 30.8 84.6 69.2 58.9 14.1 41.1 80.8 58.9 33.3 25.7 62.8 79.5 46.2 7.7 33.4 70.5 74.3 46.2 0.0 33.4 89.7 71.8 55.1 25.0 26.6 66.0 76.6 1963. .. 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... D54. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR SALES OF RETAIL STORES— 23 TYPES OF STORES (PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1948... 1949... 16^7 56.2 29.2 62.5 37.5 58.3 60.4 37.5 54.2 81.2 25.0 60.4 16.7 52.1 60.4 39.6 89.6 41.7 35.4 37.5 83.3 79.2 43.7 27.8 59.0 46.5 50 .* 7 55.6 52.8 54.1 46.0 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 50.0 91.7 60.4 29.2 52.1 75.0 25.0 47.9 54.2 93.7 62.5 18.7 18.7 66.7 22.9 50.0 31.2 60.4 20.8 43.7 60.4 50.0 66.7 31.2 50.0 79.2 33.3 75.0 39.6 75.0 89.6 58.3 43.7 31.2 56.2 66.7 79.2 58.3 79.2 27.1 12.5 37.5 41.7 35.4 79.2 20.8 70.8 79.2 33.3 75.0 35.4 79.2 33.3 50.0 60*4 91.7 37.5 79.2 45.8 64.6 62.5 45.1 42.3 50.0 56.2 63.2 38.2 67.4 30.5 56.2 56.3 58.3 47.9 48.6 54.2 49.3 62.5 63.9 43.0 66.7 57.8 51.0 55.4 43.0 58.3 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 72.9 62.5 37.5 50.0 58.3 43.7 37.5 95.8 31.2 70.8 60.4 85.4 31.2 35.4 60.4 91.7 27.1 45.8 77.1 43.7 43.7 81.2 52.1 52.1 64.6 29.2 70.8 93.7 29.2 68.7 85.4 31.2 81.2 91.7 41.7 50.0 77.1 66.7 62.5 43.7 75.0 70.8 27.1 45.8 70.8 83.3 54.2 45.8 75.0 41.7 47.9 77.1 37.5 58.3 56.2 39.6 50.0 58.3 79.2 52.1 59.0 61.8 *4.8 38.9 63.2 54.9 59.7 63.9 52.8 59.0 70.1 59.7 58.3 66.7 52.1 56.9 60.4 47.2 70.8 50.0 60.2 60.4 56.1 57.3 56.1 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 47.9 58.3 58.3 50.0 43.8 43.7 41.7 50.0 54.2 70.8 45.8 70.8 52.1 52.1 89.6 22.9 68.7 41.7 52.1 4.2 79.2 58.3 52.1 66.7 66.7 77.1 18.7 75.0 66.7 45.8 60.4 83.3 66.7 39.1 45.8 68.7 75.0 64.6 71.7 45.8 39.6 64.6 25.0 34.8 79.2 83.3 39.6 58.3 78.3 22.9 87.5 87.5 54.2 56.5 37.5 60.4 66.7 77.1 60.9 45.8 53.5 59.7 52.1 55.6 53.5 59.7 48.6 56.3 61.8 45.8 56.2 74.3 52.1 48.5 46.5 77.1 64.6 63.2 65.2 47.9 61.6 61.8 55.9 57.8 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 63.0 76.1 87.0 73.9 69.6 65.2 65.2 39.1 65.2 60.9 30.4 60.9 43.5 82.6 21.7 54.3 43.5 60.9 26.1 73.9 87.0 30.4 34.8 60.9 41.3 43.5 95.7 82.6 65.2 54.3 80.4 47.8 43.5 63.0 45.7 47.8 47.8 60.9 58.7 50.0 73.9 60.9 76.1 30.4 30.4 78.3 43.5 37.0 52.2 63.0 78.3 69.6 67.4 54.3 34.8 37.0 41.3 47.8 26.1 60.9 52.9 67.4 56.5 73.9 50.7 61.6 56.5 59.4 50.7 56.5 67.4 52.2 60.2 50.7 42.0 64.5 51.5 50.7 44.2 52.9 61.6 56.9 56.7 54.9 50.5 60*4 - 1970... 1971... JANUARY 1971 106 C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series. Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the "Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available. Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report and may be used to update the tables below. Monthly Quarterly Year Jan. Mar. Feb. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ D54. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR SALES OF RETAIL STORES— 23 TYPES OF STORES (PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS) 64.6 27.1 62.5 47.9 33.3 43.7 100.0 54.2 66.7 31.2 62.5 97.9 37.5 79.2 37.5 75.0 68.7 56.2 72.9 29.2 52.1 91.7 62.5 87.5 29.2 77.1 100.0 85.4 70.8 33.3 79.2 100.0 79.2 83.3 45.8 91.7 91.7 77.1 72.9 43.7 83.3 85.4 79.2 75.0 79.2 89.6 91.7 83.3 62.5 70.8 87.5 87.5 87.5 62.5 64.6 83.3 89.6 91.7 47.9 87.5 70.8 83.3 87.5 66.7 93.7 75.0 72.9 83.3 70.8 79.2 79.2 77.1 91.7 43.7 91.7 62.5 52.1 62.5 91.7 85.4 85.4 41.7 68.7 89.6 77.1 83.3 43.7 79.2 89.6 60.4 83.3 52.1 85.4 72.9 52.1 83.3 43.7 87.5 95.8 62.5 73.9 43.7 87.5 95.8 87.5 78.3 22.9 95.8 87.5 70.8 73.9 87.0 87.0 73.9 87.0 87.0 95.7 91.3 91.3 91.3 82.6 95.7 91.3 71.7 87.0 87.0 67.4 91.3 91.3 65.2 56.5 87.0 56.5 82.6 78.3 50.0 78.3 47.8 52.2 95.7 82.6 62.6 78.3 56.5 20.8 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 95.8 45.8 87.5 70.8 37.5 85.4 58.3 95.8 70.8 52.1 97.9 66.7 75.0 58.3 64.6 100.0 83.3 70.8 54.2 58.3 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 95.8 79.2 62.5 41.7 91.7 97.9 87.5 75.0 47.9 95.8 95.8 62.5 75.0 66.7 97.9 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 52.1 41.7 87.5 70.8 79.2 52.1 58.3 91.7 79.2 100.0 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 80.4 69.6 82.6 73.9 14.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 Annual Ml Q IV Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 66.7 25.0 1949... II Q 16.0 16.7 53.5 39.6 34.0 64.6 34.2 47.9 83.3 56.2 50.0 93.7 93.0 56.9 86.1 66.6 51.4 99.3 58.3 72.2 41.0 65.3 86.8 68.0 77.1 30.6 69.5 79.9 79.9 70.8 46.5 89.6 89.8 65.8 76.6 46.2 68.9 87.5 66.7 33.3 91.7 58.3 66.7 79.2 37.5 89.6 75.0 96.5 76.4 70.8 52.1 95.1 88.2 83.3 66.7 71.5 86.8 81.9 87.5 61.8 86.8 75.0 77.1 79.2 38.2 91.0 65.3 85.9 81.6 59.4 75.4 80.6 54.2 91.7 87.5 91.7 76.1 45.8 87.5 91.7 83.3 54.3 43.7 89.6 83.3 77.1 78.3 52.1 54.2 90.3 78.5 88.2 45.8 77.8 84.0 63.2 83.3 36.8 90.3 93.0 73.6 75.4 47.9 89.6 87.5 84.0 69.6 45.6 78.0 88.7 74.8 79.1 95.7 87.0 95.7 82.6 73.9 95.7 78.3 95.7 65.2 65.2 91.3 82.6 73.9 65.2 87.0 84.8 81.9 85.5 88.4 76.1 82.6 79.7 78.3 88.4 63.0 94.2 74.6 81.2 68.1 52.9 94.2 82.6 88.4 71.0 75.4 89.0 79.7 83.4 79.0 66.8 39.6 54.2 29.2 52,1 33.3 87.5 1970... 1971... D58. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICESt MANUFACTURED GOODS— 22 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES ® (PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS) 1948... 1949... 3U8 70.5 29.5 61.4 25.0 68.2 6.8 61.4 9.1 75.0 13.6 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 90.9 22.7 75.0 43.2 70.5 56.8 70.5 45.5 50.0 59.1 43.2 54.5 28.8 68.2 9.8 78\Q 40.9 54.6 53.0 33!l 100.0 38.6 59.1 59.1 65.9 90.9 45.5 36.4 47.7 59.1 95.5 43.2 40.9 52.3 61.4 100.0 34.1 47.7 45.5 61.4 59.1 75.8 28.8 61.4 38.6 67.4 28.0 28.0 67.4 43.9 97.7 36.3 55.3 62.1 64.4 95.5 40.9 41.7 48.5 60.6 79.9 45.3 38.5 59.9 51.9 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 56.8 100.0 20.5 65.9 47.7 70.5 86.4 45.5 56.8 25.0 50.0 40.9 20.5 61.4 43.2 61,4 31.8 18.2 63.6 40.9 61.4 27.3 38.6 70.5 43.2 79.5 25.0 27.3 68.2 47.7 93.2 40.9 52.3 68.2 59.1 100.0 29.5 54,5 59.1 68.2 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 72.7 72.7 72.7 47.7 75.0 50.0 81.8 50.0 34.1 79.5 56.8 70.5 52.3 31.8 72.7 68.2 72.7 61.4 43.2 61.4 54.5 40.9 59.1 36.4 68.2 70.5 50.0 59.1 68.2 63.6 79.5 68.2 65.9 50.0 59.1 75.0 68.2 65.9 56.8 61.4 84.1 70.5 50.0 52.3 65.9 72.7 65.9 40.9 63.6 59.1 77.3 68.2 50.0 52.3 56.8 81.8 72.7 59.1 61.4 50.0 59.8 75.0 58.3 37.9 75.7 64.4 54.5 59.9 49.3 64.4 79.5 69.0 60.6 53.0 62.1 77.3 68.9 50.0 59.1 55.3 70.3 66.9 57.2 49.8 64.4 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 65.9 40.9 65.9 43.2 61.4 36.4 36.4 40.9 36.4 63.6 47.7 45.5 52.3 43.2 56.8 45.5 56.8 43.2 40.9 47.7 25.0 31.8 54.5 63.6 50.0 40.9 50.0 45.5 65.9 56.8 47.7 59.1 40.9 47.7 68.2 43.2 61.4 38.6 63.6 54.5 31.8 61.4 36.4 61.4 52.3 38.6 43.2 40.9 81.8 72.7 29.5 45.5 43.2 68.2 63.6 52.3 54.5 45.5 61.4 56.8 50.0 40.9 53.0 40.9 60.6 37.1 46.2 47.7 56.8 51.5 40.9 60.6 38.6 57.6 58.3 40.1 47.7 43.2 70.5 64.4 42.0 48.9 45.6 56.4 58.7 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 72.7 79.5 77.3 90.9 68.2 52.3 75.0 72.7 84.1 72.7 65.9 72.7 56.8 68.2 75.0 72.7 70.5 47.7 72.7 84.1 75.0 86.4 54.5 63.6 79.5 61.4 75.0 47.7 61.4 84.1 50.0 72.7 63.6 68.2 77.3 56.8 54.5 63.6 70.5 68.2 61.4 47.7 75.0 72.7 77.3 70.5 63.6 72.7 79.5 68.2 70.5 63.6 77.3 79.5 84.1 70.5 54.5 90.9 61.4 72.7 63.6 75.7 68.9 81.1 72.0 69.7 77.3 50.0 65.9 82.6 56.1 58.3 67.4 70.5 74.3 70,5 60.6 80.3 73.5 75.0 65.0 68.0 66.6 72.7 76.0 1970... 1971... D58. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES* MANUFACTURED GOODS— 22 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES ® (PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD ... 1949... 29.5 27.3 18.2 77.3 11.4 25.0 78.8 9.9 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 50.0 95.5 15.9 59.1 45.5 63.6 95.5 6.8 59.1 34.1 68.2 81.8 11.4 65.9 43.2 95.5 50.0 15.9 61.4 43.2 100.0 27.3 27.3 63.6 56.8 100.0 29.5 36.4 65.9 59.1 100.0 29.5 40.9 61.4 61.4 100.0 29.5 47.7 54.5 72.7 100.0 36.4 40.9 63.6 77.3 100.0 22.7 52.3 54.5 75.0 100.0 25.0 45.5 52.3 72.7 100.0 18.2 59.1 47.7 63.6 60.6 90.9 11.4 61.4 40.9 98.5 35.6 26.5 63.6 53.0 100.0 31.8 43.2 59.8 70.5 100.0 22.0 52.3 51.5 70.4 89.8 45.1 33.3 59.1 58.7 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 72.7 86.4 68.2 36.4 77.3 59.1 86.4 68.2 29.5 79.5 68.2 86.4 72.7 31.8 79.5 70.5 81.8 72.7 34.1 75.0 84.1 77.3 79.5 45.5 56.8 81.8 75.0 81.8 56.8 72.7 81.8 81.8 75.0 59.1 61.4 81.8 75.0 75.0 59.1 61.4 81.8 81.8 72.7 65.9 59.1 86.4 79.5 59.1 72.7 59.1 81.8 70.5 47.7 70.5 63.6 81.8 68.2 43.2 77.3 61.4 66.7 86.4 69.7 32.6 78.8 78.8 78.0 78.0 45.5 68.2 81.8 79.5 74.2 61.4 60.6 83.3 72.7 50.0 73.5 61.4 77.6 79.2 68.0 53.2 67.2 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 63.6 40.9 56.8 29.5 72.7 40.9 34.1 50.0 40.9 72.7 36.4 38.6 54.5 54.5 63.6 38.6 31.8 45.5 47.7 59.1 34.1 52.3 47.7 52.3 59.1 36.4 52.3 52.3 59.1 59.1 34.1 45.5 47.7 65.9 61*4 29.5 52.3 45.5 79.5 65.9 31i8 50.0 36.4 72.7 70.5 31.8 59.1 29.5 79.5 72.7 31.8 45,5 18.2 72.7 79.5 45.5 54.5 15.9 77.3 86.4 47.0 37.9 53.8 41.6 69.7 36.4 45.5 48.5 53.0 59.1 31.8 49.3 43.2 72.7 65.9 36.4 53.0 21.2 76.5 79.5 37.9 46.4 41.7 61.0 68.6 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 81.8 88.6 63.6 90.9 81.8 86.4 95.5 68.2 95.5 79.5 81.8 93.2 65.9 90.9 84.1 79.5 95.5 63.6 75.0 90.9 70.5 95.5 63.6 84.1 90.9 63.6 86.4 63.6 81.8 88.6 65.9 72.7 72.7 84.1 86.4 65.9 72.7 81.8 81.8 86.4 77.3 63.6 81.8 86.4 81.8 88.6 63.6 81.8 81.8 81.8 90.9 72.7 90.9 81.8 81.8 90.9 72.7 95.5 90.9 72.7 83.3 92.4 65.9 92.4 81.8 71.2 92.5 63.6 80.3 90.1 69.7 69.7 78.8 84.1 B4.9 90.1 69.7 89.4 84.8 78.8 78.6 81.1 74.4 85.4 83.9 77.3 6.8 81.8 11.4 77.3 11.4 72.7 20.5 70.5 47.7 59.1 52.3 47.7 61.4 40.9 61.4 73.5 26.5 49.2 58.4 29.9 1970... 1971... JANUARY 1971 107 C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series. Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the "Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available. Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report and may be used to update the tables below. Quarterly Quarterly Year IQ 410. II Q III Q MANUFACTURERS' SALES* TOTAL VALUE (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) ... ... ... ... 412. ... ... 26.4 33.8 40.2 43.0 43.0 26.8 36.5 40.2 44.0 42.1 28.3 38.3 40.4 44.7 41.4 31.1 39.3 41.1 43.9 41.6 31.1 39.3 41.1 43.9 41.6 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 41.9 46.5 51.7 50.8 50.7 42.6 48.3 52.1 49.6 52.0 43.8 49.5 52.4 49.4 51.8 45.1 50.6 51.9 50.1 52.7 45.1 50.6 51.9 50.1 52.7 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 53.9 53.4 56.1 58.6 60.5 54.4 53.4 57.0 59.2 60.9 54.6 54.0 57.9 59.6 61.6 53.8 54.9 58.2 60.0 63.4 53.8 54.9 58.2 60.0 63.4 1965 1966 1967 64.1 70.0 80.2 83.8 90.4 65.3 72.6 81.1 85.6 92.2 66.8 75.5 81.7 87.1 94.2 68.2 78.2 82.8 88.6 95.9 68.2 78.2 82.8 88.6 95.9 61.5 64.9 72.5 71.2 71.0 223.6 260.6 270.2 298.2 280.3 79.5 83.3 86.1 79.2 94.3 80.2 81.0 86.7 82.3 89.6 81.9 86.5 83.9 85.7 89.3 317.9 94.6 88.5 98.8 101.8 109.3 92.8 91.2 98.8 104.4 111.1 91.8 93.8 99.3 106.3 113.0 90.2 97.2 100.3 107.7 114.7 369.4 370.7 397.2 420.2 119.1 131.4 135.1 145.4 159.6 121.6 134.0 135.7 149.6 162.3 124.4 135.4 137.4 152.6 167.4 127.2 137.2 140.3 156.6 168.1 492.3 538.0 548.5 604.2 657.4 76.3 81.6 88.0 80.0 89.2 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 332.4 344.7 327.2 362.4 448.1 1947..... 1968.... . 1969 1970 1971 1970 1971 414. CONDITION OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES — PERCENT CONSIDERED HIGH LESS PERCENT CONSIDERED LOW 2 (PERCENT) END OF YEAR ... ... ... ... ... , , . • 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 ... •. . ... •. . ... ,. ,. ,. 15 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 ... ... ... ... 1946 1947 1948 1949 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..• ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... t t ... .* . ... ... 10 ... ... ... ... 12 ... ... ... ... 4 ... ... ... ... 15 1955 1956 1957 1958 , 1959 416. ADEQUACY OF MANUFACTURERS' CAPACITY — PERCENT CONSIDERED INADEQUATE LESS PERCENT CONSIDERED EXCESSIVE 5 (PERCENT) 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 ... ... ... ... ... t 1945..... t ,. ,. ,. • • , , , • t 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 24 17 12 12 14 27 13 12 13 10 23 8 13 15 10 23 8 12 11 10 23 8 12 11 10 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 ... ... ... ... 30 1965 1966 1967 13 11 30 22 18 12 14 29 22 13 19 23 21 22 12 26 22 16 22 12 26 22 16 22 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 36 47 40 35 43 1968..... 1969 19 420-A. CURRENT INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO— (PERCENT) PERCENT REPORTING NO CHANGE IN INCOME AVERAGE 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 .t. ... ... ... ... ... ... •* * ... ... 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 END OF YEAR ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... •. . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ,,. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 32 ... ... ... ... 34 ... ... ... 32 37 ... ... ... 32 37 41 45 40 35 38 43 46 41 40 39 43 42 38 42 41 43 42 38 42 41 ... ... 52.4 52.3 52.9 ... ... 55.2 47.5 53.0 420-B. CURRENT INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO— PERCENT REPORTING HIGHER INCOME 3 (PERCENT) 1945 AVERAGE 1947 1948 1949 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ** . ... ... ... 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 53.9 48.1 50.8 ... ... 54.2 51.2 50.7 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 ... ... 35.4 36.0 36.4 ... ... 32.9 40.9 35.9 ... ... 34.2 40.3 37.3 ... ... 33.3 38.0 37.4 ... ... 34.0 38.8 36.8 1970 1971 2 ... .. . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. . ... ... 1970 1971 1970 1971 1 1949..., . 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 60.8 64.0 66.6 75.5 69.2 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 END OF YEAR ... ... 25.9 28.5 26.3 1948 52.9 65.5 65.6 76.1 69.7 ... ... 23.6 26.2 29.4 193.6 48.4 66.2 65.5 75.4 70.4 MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES? TOTAL BOOK VALUE1 (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) ... ... 25.9 28.5 26.3 207.9 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 Annual IV Q ... ... 25.6 28.3 27.0 50.6 52.6 46.1 45.4 51.6 48.1 III Q ... ... 24.7 27.0 28.3 1945 1946 43.5 50.1 50.9 II Q IQ TOTAL ... ... 186.2 ... ... 46.7 53.6 48.5 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1969..... IV Q Year Annual ... ... 53.9 49.8 51.8 1946..... 1970 1971 i been revised beginning with 1961. These : These ! 3 108 JANUARY 1971 C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued This appendix contains historical datci (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series. Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the "Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol @ (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available. Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report and may be used to update the tables below. Quarterly Quarterly Year 1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 420-C. CURRENT INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO — PERCENT REPORTING LOWER INCOME 1 (PERCENT) 1945 1946 1947..... 1948..... 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956. ...» 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964...., 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..• ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ••• ... ... 11.2 11.1 10.0 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 11.0 10.9 10.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..* 11.0 11.0 10.8 Annual AVERAGE Year IQ II Q III Q IV Q 425-A. MEAN PROBABILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES IN INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS— PROBABILITY OF INCREASE IN INCOME 1 (PERCENT) ... ... .* . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 ... .• « ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1955 1956 1957 1958..... 1959 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1960. .... 1961 1962 1963 1964 ... ... 11.6 10.1 11.1 ... ... 11.2 10.8 10.6 1965 1966 1967 1968..... 1969 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .* , ... ... ... ... ... ... 16.0 19.3 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. . ... ... ... ... .. . 15.8 18.3 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... •. . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 17.4 18.4 Annual AVERAGE ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .•. ... .*. ... ... ... ... .•. ... ... ... ... ..• ... ... ... •. • ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... •. . .•. ... ... ... ... ... 16.2 16.7 ... ... ... 16.4 18.2 1970 1971 1970 1971 425-B. MEAN PROBABILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES IN INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS— INCREASE LESS DECREASE 1 (PERCENT) AVERAGE 425-C. MEAN PROBABILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES IN INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS— PROBABILITY OF DECREASE IN INCOME 1 (PERCENT) AVERAGE 1945..... 1946 1947 1948 1949 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .•. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1945 1946..... 1947 1948 1949 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . «« ... ... 1950 1951,.... 1952 1953..... 1954 ... ... ... ..• ... ... *. . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... *. . ... ... ... 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 ... ., ., .. •• ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .« . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... «• • ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .•. ... 11 1960 1961..... 1962..... 1963 1964. .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..• ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964,,... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 11.2 11.9 ... ... ... 10.2 11.2 ... ... ... 10.4 12.4 1965 1966..,,. 1967 1968 1969 ... ... 5.9 5.5 ... ... ... 5.9 5.8 ... ... ... 6.2 6.5 ... ... ... 6.0 5.5 ... *.. ... 6.0 5.8 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 ... ... ... 10.1 13.8 ... ... ... 9.9 12.5 1970 1971 1970..... 1971 435. INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT 2 (FIRST QUARTER 1966=100) 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 850, RATIO. OUTPUT TO CAPACITY! MANUFACTURING 3 (PERCENT) AVERAGE AVERAGE ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1945 1946..... 1947 1948 1949 ... ... ... 91.1 83.9 ... ... ... 90.2 79.8 ... ... ... 89.8 79.8 ... ... ... 87.7 77.3 89.7 80.2 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 86.2 80.8 87.0 ... ... .•. •. . ... 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 81.9 96.8 91.7 96.6 84.2 88.5 95.8 88.4 96.8 83.2 95.2 92.2 89.3 95.1 82.7 96.1 91.1 95.8 88.4 83.9 90.4 94.0 91.3 94.2 83.5 ... ... ... ... ... 1955..... 1956 1957 1958 1959..... 87.4 89.4 86.7 71.9 80.6 90.2 88.2 85.0 71.2 84.9 91.1 85.6 84.0 75.3 80.7 91.5 87.6 78.6 77.7 79.8 90.0 87.7 83.6 74.0 81.5 ... ... 94.8 94.8 99.2 1960 1961 1962 1963..... 1964 84.1 74.5 82.0 82.0 84.5 82.0 78.0 82.4 83.9 85.7 80.0 80.2 82.4 83.7 86.3 76.5 81.5 81.8 83.7 86.2 80.6 78.6 82.2 83.3 85.7 1965..... 1966 1967 1968 1969 68.5 90.5 87.1 85.0 84.5 88.4 90.8 85.0 85.1 84.5 88.5 90.6 84.3 84.2 84.2 88.6 90.0 84.8 84.2 81.7 88.5 90.5 85.3 84.6 83.7 1950..... 1951..... 1952 1953 1954 ... ... ... 90.7 82.0 ... ... .•. ... 82.9 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 ... ... ... 78.5 ... 99.1 98.2 92.9 80.9 95.3 ... 99.9 ... ... ... I960..... 1961 1962 1963 1964 98.9 91.1 97.2 94.8 99.0 92.9 92.3 95.4 91.4 98.1 ... ... 91.6 96.2 100.2 90.1 94.4 95.0 96.9 99.4 101.5 100.0 92.2 95.0 95.1 102.2 95.7 94.9 92.4 91.6 103.2 91.2 96.5 92.9 86.4 102.9 88.3 92.9 92.1 79.7 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 ,, ,, .t •« 99.7 100.2 83.7 90.8 93.8 1970 1971 102.4 93.8 94.1 93.1 88.2 ... ... ... 1970 1971...,. i series have not previously been shown here. } last shown here, this series has been revised beginning with 19i JANUARY 1971 109 E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 Duration in months Contraction (trough from previous peak) Business cycle reference dates Trough Cycle Expansion (trough to peak) Trough from previous trough Peak from previous peak Peak December 1854 December 1858 June 1861 . . December 1867 December 1870 March 1879 June 1857 October 1860 April 1865 June 1869 October 1873 March 1882 May 1885 April 1888 May. 1891 June 1894 June 1897. . . . December 1900 (x) 30 22 46 18 34 36 (x) (x) 18 8 32 IS 65 48 30 78 36 99 40 54 50 52 101 March 1887 July 1890 January 1893 December 1895 ... June 1899 September 1902 3$ 13 10 17 18 18 22 27 20 18 24 21 74 35 37 37 36 42 60 40 30 35 42 39 August 1904 June 1908 January 1912 December 1914 March 1919 July 1921 May 1907 January 1910 January 1913 • • August 1918 January 1920 May 1923 23 13 24 23 7 18 33 19 12 44 10 22 44 46 43 35 51 28 56 32 36 67 17 40 July 1924 November 1927 March 1933 . . . June 1938 October 1945 October 1949 October 1926 . August 1929 May 1937 February 1945 November 1948 July 1953 14 13 43 13 8 11 27 21 50 80 37 45 36 40 64 63 88 48 41 34 93 93 33 56 August 1954 April 1958 February 1961 July 1957 May 1960 13 9 9 35 25 (X) 58 44 34 48 34 Average, all cycles: 26 cycles, 1854-1961 . 10 cycles 1919-1961 4 cycles, 1945-1961.. 19 15 10 30 35 36 49 50 46 Average, peacetime cycles: 22 cycles 1854-1961 8 cycles, 1919-1961 . 3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . 20 16 10 26 28 32 45 45 42 . . (x) 149 54 46 2 3 4 5 46 48 42 6 NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and I I, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions. ^5 cycles, 1857-1960; 9 cycles, 1920-1960. 2 Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 110 3 4 4 cycles, 1945-1960. 21 cycles, 1857-1960. 5 1 6 cycles, 1920-1960. 3 cycles, 1945-1960. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE • Bureau of the Census .key resources on Census '70 19 70 Census Users' Part 1 and Part 2 The 1970 Census Users' Guide is a two-part publication designed to furnish most of the information data users will need for effective access and use of 1970 census data products. ORDER FORM Please indicate number of copies I I 1 PARTS 1 and 2ofthe1970 Census I Users' Guide @ $4.00 for both PART 1 only of the 1970 Census Users'Guide @ $1.25 per copy D Part 1 of the Guide (standard, paper-bound publication) includes the text and three appendixes. The text covers such subjects as the collection and processing of 1970 data, data delivery media (computer tapes, microfilm, and printed materials), maps and information on how to obtain census materials. The appendixes are: C3.6/2:C33/4/970/PT.l 1970 Census Users' Dictionary - defines concepts associated with population and housing tabulations and geographic areas relevant to the collection and publication of data. PART 2 only of the 1970 Census Users' Guide @ $2.75 per copy Comparison of Printed Reports and Summary Tapes summarizes and compares the contents of the reports and tapes. C3.6/2 :C33/4/970/PT.2 Glossary - defines many terms used in connection with collecting, processing, and publishing census data, and lists many abbreviations relevant to the census. MAIL ORDER FORM WITH PAYMENT TO Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 or any U.S. Department of Commerce field office Make check or money order payable to: Superintendent of Documents TOTAL AMOUNT Address Technical Conventions and Character Set - present in formation on the physical characteristics, format, and languages associated with tapes released by the Bureau. 1st-4th Count Technical Documentation - describes the arrangement of geographic codes and census data on the first four series of summary tapes. Address Coding Guide Technical Documentation - furnishes information on the format and content of ACG's. Name City Part 2 of the Guide (prepunched for 3-ring binder) contains appendixes specifically related to the use of census summary tapes and the Address Coding Guide. State Zip code Many data users will find both Parts 1 and 2 of great value. Part 1, with its comprehensive coverage of the decennial census program, data products, and related services, is an important instructional and reference tool. Part 2, concerned exclusively with computer tape products, is designed particularly for those who plan to obtain tapes or who want complete information on the data content of the summary tapes. INDEX Series Finding Guide (See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles) Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence) (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue (page numbers) Charts Tables Series Historical data lescriptions issue date) issue date) 90^ PWP in TQ^S Hollars 217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars 9,21,38 5,65,71 9,21,38,56 5,65,71,87 9 5,65 9 5,65 9 5,65 Dec. Dec. Dec. Oct. Oct. '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '69 '69 ' '69 '69 '69 10 10 10 10 5,65 5,65 5,65 5,65 Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '70 '70 '70 '70 Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '69 '69 '69 '69 5,65 Oct. '70 Oct. '69 224. Disposable personal income, current dol 225. Disposable personal income, constant dol ... 226. Per capita disposable personal income, 10 current dollars 227. Per capita disposable personal income, 10 A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures 230. Total, current dollars 231. 233. 234. 236. 11 11 Total, constant dollars 11 Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. . . 11 11 Automobiles, current dollars 11 Nondurable goods, current dollars 11 5,65 Oct. '70 Oct. '69 5,66 5,66 5,66 5,66 5,66 5,66 5,66 Oct. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 12 12 12 12 12 12,26 5,66 5,66 5,66 5,66 5,66 5,66,74 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 13,47 13,49 13,49 5,67 5,67 5,67 Nov. Nov. Nov. '70 '70 '70 May '69 May '69 May '69 14 14 14,53 14 5,67 5,67 5,67,85 5,67 Nov.' '70 Nov. '70 Nov. '70 Dec. '70 *200. GNP in current dollars *205. GNP in 1958 dollars *47 Industrial production A5. Foreign Trade ?Sfl Net exports of soods and services 253 Imports of goods and services A6. Gov. Purchases, Goods and Services 260. 262. 264 266. Federal, State, and local governments Federal Government National defense State and local governments Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '69 '69 '69 '69 15 5,67 Dec. '70 Oct. '69 15 15 5,67 5,67 Dec. Dec. '70 '70 Oct. Oct. '69 '69 15 5,67 Dec. '70 Oct. '69 16 16 16 16 16 5,67 5,67 5,67 5,68 5,68 Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 17 17 5,68 5,68 Dec. Dec. '70 '70 Oct. Oct. '69 '69 17 17 17 5,68 5,68 5,68 Dec. Dec. Dec. '70 '70 '70 Oct. Oct. Oct. '69 '69 '69 18,36 18 18 18 *5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance . . . 18,36 18 6,69 6,69 6,69 6,69 6,69 6,69 Aug. Aug. '70 Aug. '68 '70 '70 June '69 '70 Aug. '68 '70 June '69 '70 Aug. '68 19 19 19 19,38 19 6,69 6,69 6,70 6,70 6,70 6,70 6,70 6,70 6,70 270 Final sales durable goods 271. Change in business inventories, durable 275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods A8. National Income Components 284 Rental income of persons 286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj 288 Net i nterest A9. Saving 290. Gross saving, private and government 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment 296. Capital consumption allowances 298. Government surplus or deficit B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS B1. Employment and Unemployment *1 Average workweek prod, workers mfg 21. Avg. wkly. overtime hrs., prod, workers, mfg. 49 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled 42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities 20,38 45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate 40. Unemployment rate, married males *44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over 20 20 20,39 June Aug. June Aug. June '70 Dec. '70 Aug. '70 Aug. '70 Feb. '70 Feb. '70 Dec. '70 Feb. '70 June '70 *Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. June '69 Aug. Aug. *54 Sales of retail stores June '69 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 May '70 Dec. Dec. Apr. Aug. Aug. Nov. Aug. Oct. 69 Oct. 69 Nov . 68 July 68 July 68 Feb. 69 July 68 S3. Fixed Capital Investment 23,36 Feb. Feb. Nov. '70 '70 '70 Sep. '68 *10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . . .23,36 6,72 6,72 6,72 6,72 6,72 Nov. '70 Sep. '68 11. 24. 9. 28. *29. New capital appropriations, manufacturing. New orders, producers' cap. goods indus . Constr. contracts, com. and indus Private housing starts, total New bldg. permits, private housing 6,72 6,72 6,73 6,73 6,73 Aug. Nov. Feb. Sep. '68 96. 97. *61. 69. 6,73 Unfilled orders, durable goods industries.' 25 6,73 Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing . 25 7,73,79 Business expend., new plant and equip . . 25,39,40 . Machinery and equipment sales and 25 7,73 business construction expenditures 13 New business incorporations *6 New orders durable soods industries 23 23,36 23 24 . 24 24 24 24,36 '70 '70 '70 June ' 70 June '70 Apr . ' 69 Nov. '70 Aug. '70 Apr. '70 Sep. '68 Nov. '68 Nov. '70 Sep. '68^ 7,66,74 7,74 7,74 7,74 7,74 Nov. Nov. Feb. Nov. Feb. '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 Oct. Feb. '69 '69 Sep. '68 7,74 7,74 7,74 7,74 Feb. Nov. Nov. Nov. '70 '70 '70 '70 Sep. Feb. Sep. '68 '69 '68 28,37 28,37,64 28,37 7,75 7,75 7,75 Aug. '70 28 28 7,75 7,75 7,75 Aug. '70 Aug. '70 Mar. Nov. 7,75 7,75,86 Sep. Sep. '70 '70 June '69 June '69 7,75 7,75 Aug. Aug. '70 '70 Nov. '68 Jan. Jan. '71 '71 Aug. Aug. '68 '68 30,37 7,76 7,76 7,76 7,76 30 31 31 31 7,76 7,76 7,76 7,76 Feb. '70 32 32 32 32 7,77 7,77 7,77 7,77 Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. '70 '70 '70 '70 32 7,77 8,77 8,77 8,77 8,77 '70 May '70 Feb. '70 Feb. '70 Mar. '70 6,78 Aug. '70 Aug. '70 78 6,78 6,78 6,78 6,78 6,78 6,78 6,78 Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 Aug. Nov. Nov. '70 '68 '68 B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment 12,26 245. *31. 37. 20. Change in bus. inventories, all indus Change in mfg. and trade inventories Purchased materials, higher inventories . . Change in materials, supplies inventories . 32. 25. *71. 65. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . . 27 27 Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . . .27,39 27 Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods . B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits *23 Industrial materials prices iy. MOCK prices, oyu common stoc 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, 15. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg 26,37 26 26 26 28,37 55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities .... 29 29,55 58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods 68. Labor cost per unit of gross product, 29 *62 Labor cost oer unit of output mfs 29,39 July '70 July '70 June '70 Apr . ' 69 May '69 July '68 July '68 98. Change in money supply and time deposits *113. Change in consumer installment debt 110 Total private borrowing 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans 114 Treasurv bill rate 116 Corporate bond vields 115 Treasury bond yields 66. *72. *67. 118. 30 30 30 33 Consumer installment debt Com. and industrial loans outstanding . . .33,39 33,39 Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 33 Mortgage yields, residential July '70 May '70 July '64 '70 '70 July '64 July '64 Feb. Apr. June '70 Mar. July '64 July '64 July '64 July '64 July '64 B7. Composite Indexes 810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj . .34 811. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse 830 813 814. 815. 816. 817. 6 lagging indicators Marginal employment adjustments Capital investment commitments Inventory investment and purchasing Profitability Sensitive financial flows 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 '69 '68 July '68 B6. Money and Credit '68=f '68 9,21,38 6,65,71 9,21,38,56 6,65,71,87 21,38,63 6,71,99 21,38 6,71 6,71 .21 22,38 6,71 22 6,71 22,38 6,71 53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . . A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment 240. Gross private domestic investment, total Tables £2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade A2. National and Personal Income 220 National income current dollars • Charts Series Historical lescriptions data (issue date) (issue date) B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT A1. Gross National Product 700 GNP in current dollars Current issue (page numbers) Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence) (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. 113 Series Finding Guide-Continued (See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles) Current issue (page numbers) Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence) (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Charts Tables Series Historical data descriptions (issue date) (issue date) Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence) (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue (page numbers) Charts Tables Historical Series data descriptions (issue date) (issue date) D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS--Con. C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Cl. Aggregate Series 61. Bus. expend, new plant and equip 25,39,40 41 41 41 41 412. Mfrs ' inventories book value 73,79 79 79 79 79 Apr. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. '70 '71 '71 '71 '71 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '68 '68 '68 '68 '68 79 79 79 79 Jan. '71 Jon. '71 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '68 '68 '68 '68 D4. Price Movements 781 Consumer price index 782 Consumer price index 783 Consumer price index 784 Consumer price index Sep. Sep. Sep. Sep. '70 '70 '70 '70 May May May May Sep. Sep. Sep. Sep. '70 '70 '70 '70 June June June June 9,21,38,56 6,65,71,87 Dec. 56 87 56 5,87 '70 Oct. 54,62 54 54 54 all items food commodities services 750. Wholesale price index, all commodities . . .55 42 420. Household income compared to year ago 425. Probability of change, household income • . . 42 42 42 June '70 '71 Jan. 751. Wholesale price index, proc. foods, feeds. . 752 Wholesale price index farm products . • 29,55 55 55 8,86 86 86 86 8,86 86,75 86 86 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 ' 69 E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES C2. Diffusion Indexes D440. New orders, manufacturing D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade rj444 Net sales manufacturing and trade D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade D450. Level of inventories, mfg. and trade D460 Selling prices mfg and trade D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade D466 Selling prices retail trade D61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip D480. Freight carloadings 43 43 43 43 80 80 80 80 June June June June '70 '70 '70 '70 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '68 '68 '68 '68 44 44 44 44 44 80 80 80 80 80 June June June June June '70 '70 '70 '70 ' 70 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '68 '68 '68 '68 '68 45 45 45 81 81 81 Apr. '70 Aug. '70 Nov. Nov. Nov. '68 '68 '68 June '70 D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS Dl. Foreign Trade 500 Merchandise trade balance 46 46 8,82 8,82 July '70 July '70 46 Feb. 46 8,82 8,82 8,82 47 8,83 Aug. '70 May '69 8,83 83 Aug. Aug. '70 '70 May '69 May '69 47 13,47 83 83 Aug. Aug. '70 '70 May '69 May '69 48 83 Aug. '70 May '69 48 48 Aug. Aug. '70 '70 May '69 May '69 13,49 13,49 83 83 83 83 83 Aug. '70 Aug. «70- May '69 May '69 49 49 83 83 Aug. Aug. '70 '70 May '69 May '69 49 83 Aug. '70 May '69 49 50 50 83 84 84 Aug. '70 Sep. '70 Sep. '70 May '69 May '69 May '69 Receipts from foreigners in U.S U.S. military expenditures abroad Military sales to foreigners Receipts, transportation and services Payments, transportation and services 50 50 50 50 50 50 84 84 84 84 84 84 Sep. Sep. Sep. Sep. Sep. Sep. '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 May May May May May May '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 U S purchases of foreign securities Foreign purchases of U.S. securities Govt grants and capital transactions Banking and other capital transactions 51 51 51 51 51 51 84 84 84 84 84 84 Sep. Sep. Sep. Sep. Oct. Oct. '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 May May May May May May '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 600. Fed. balance, nat'l income and prod. acct. . . 52 601. Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod, acct . . 52 602. Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. . . 52 8,85 8,85 8,85 621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement 647. New orders, defense products industries fi48 New orders defense products ......... 8,85 8,85 8,85 8,85 8,85 '70 '70 '70 'Nov. '70 Dec. '70 Dec. '70 Dec. '70 Dec. '70 Dec. '70 May '69 May '69 506. Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor 508 Export orders nonelectrical machinery ..... 46 '70 Aug. '68# June '70 July '70 May '69 D2. Balance of Payments and Components 520. U.S. bal. of pints., liquidity bal. basis 522. U.S. bal. of pints., official settlements 47 525. Net capital movements, liquidity bal. basis. . 47 527. Net capital movements, official settlements 250. Balance on goods and services 530 Liquid liabilities to foreigners 532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign official agencies 534. U.S. official reserve assets 535 Allocations of SDR's 252. Exports of goods and services 253. Imports of goods and services 537. Merchandise imports, adjusted 540. Investment income, military sales, and 541. Foreigners' investment income, military 542 Income on U S investments abroad 544. 547. 546. 548. 549. 565 564 570. 575 .... • . . D3. Federal Government Activities 14,53 53 53 53 53 53 8,67,85 Aug. Aug. Aug. #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. 114 El. Actual and Potential GNP 9r>£ Artiml PMD in 1QKQ rlnllarc 206. Potential GNP in 1958 dollars 207. GNP gap (potential less actual) '69 E2. Analytical Ratios 850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing. . . 57 851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . . 57 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, 8,88 8,88 Jan. '71 Nov. '70 Feb . ' 69 57 8,88 Nov. 57 8,88 Apr. 58 8,88 Aug. 58 58 58 8,88 8,88 8,88 Feb. Oct. Aug. '70 '70 June ' 68 '70 June '68 58 58 8,88 8,88 Jan. J71 June '68 Feb. '70 89,92 89,92 89 90 90,93 90,94 90,94 Oct. Apr. Aug. Feb. Dec. Jan. Oct. '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 May '69 '71 Apr. '69 '70 June '69 91,95 91,95 91,96 91,97 Oct. May Jan. Jan. '70 '70 '71 June '69 '71 Dec. Dec. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '70 Oct. '69 '70 Oct. '69 '70 Nov. '68 '70 Aug. '68# '70 '70 July '68 '70 Nov. '68 '70 June '69 '70 May '69 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 Sep. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. '70 May '69 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 Apr. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. '70 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 Nov. 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 '70 May '69 853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable 855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled to persons unemployed 858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . 856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers . . 859. Real spendable average weekly earnings, nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. . 857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing E3. Diffusion Indexes Dl. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg D6. New orders, durable goods industries Dll. New capital appropriations, mfg D34 Profits manufacturing . . .. 59 59 59 ... 59 59 59 D5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance. . 59 D41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls D47. Industrial production D58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods 60 60 60 60 E5. Rates of Change 200. GNP in current dollars 820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators. 48. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments 47. Index of industrial production 55. Index of whsle. prices, indus. commodities 781. Index of consumer prices, all items 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 '70 Sep. '68 '70 Nov. '68 '70 July '68 F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Fl. Consumer Price Indexes 781. United States 133 Canada 132. United Kingdom 135. West Germany 136. France 138. Japan 137. Italy F2. Industrial Production Indexes 47 United States 123 Canada 122 United Kingdom 126 France 125. West Germany 128 Japan 121 OECD European countries . . 127. Italy July '68# July '68# F3. Stock Price Indexes July '68# 19. United States Oct. '69 143 Canada Sep."'68# 142 146. 145. 148. 147. United Kingdom France West Germany Japan Italy 54,62 62 62 62 62 62 62 21,38,63 63 63 63 63 63 .... 63 63 28,37,64 64 64 64 64 64 64 '68 Titles and Sources of Series Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order. The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter). The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal adjustment have been adjusted by their source. The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. 244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A4) 245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A4, B4) 250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A5, D2) 252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A5, D2) 253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A5, D2) 260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6) A National Income and Product 200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8, E5) 205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8, El, E5) 210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). -- Depart ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al) 215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census (Al) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census (Al) 220. National income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2) 222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Com merce, Office of Business Economics (A2) 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2) 225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2) 226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2) 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2) 230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6) 264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6, D3) 13. Number of new business incorporations (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3) 271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A7) 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). • Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (B6) 274. Final sales, nondurable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A7) 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q). -- Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (B5) 275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).. Depart nent of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A7) 280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8) *16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q) Office of Business Economics 282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8) *17. Index of price per unit of labor cost -- ratio, index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B5, B8) 284. Rental income of persons (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8) 286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8) 288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8) 290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A9) 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A9) 234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A9) (A4) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q). -The Conference Board (B3,E3) 270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A7) 233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census thru May 1970 and by source agency thereafter. (B3, B8) *12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3, B8) 292. Personal saving (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A9) 240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A4) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M). -- McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (B3) 266. State and local government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6) 232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) '5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (Bl, E3, E4) *6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3, B8, E3, E4) 8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). •• McGrawHill Information Systems Company. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (B3) (A9) B Cyclical Indicators *1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bl, B8, E3, E4) 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bl) • Department of Commerce, (B5, B8) *19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). -- Standard and Poor's Corporation (B5, B8r t3, E4, F3) 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the the Census (B4) 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers, manufacturing (M). --Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bl) 22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (B5) *23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B5, B8, E3, E4) 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, producers' capital goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B4) 26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). -- National Association of Purchasing Management (B4) 28. New private housing units started, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A4) 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bl) *29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3, B8) 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A4) 4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). -- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (Bl, B8) *31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (IKI). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census (B4r B8) Continued on reverse 115 Titles and Sources of Series (Continued from page 115) 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries (M). -- Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (B4) 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M). -- Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census. (B6) 37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). -- National Association of Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (B4) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM). -• American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964) (B6) 40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Deportment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Bl) *41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey (M). -• Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bl, B8, E3, E4) 42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Bl) *43. Unemployment rate, total (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Bl, B8) *44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Bl, B8) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration (Bl) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). -- National Industrial Conference Board (Bl) *470 Index of industrial production (M). •• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2) 48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bl, E5) 68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations -- ratio of current-dollar compensation of employees to gross corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (B5) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3) *71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census (B4, B8) *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (B6, B8) 85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (86) 93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) %. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -The Conference Board (B3) 98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) 110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) 112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (B6) *113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8) 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department (B6) 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). -- First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department (B6) 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20bond average (M). -- The Bond Buyer (B6) 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (B6) 49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM). --Department of Labor,Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (Bl) *200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A. *52. Personal income (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (B2, B8, E5) 53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (B2) 245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See in section A. 810. Twelve leading indicators -- reverse trend adjusted composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *54. Sales of retail stores (M). • Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B2, B8, E3, E4, E5) 55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).-- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B5, E5) *56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M). — Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census (B2, B8) 57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (B2) 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B5, D4, E3, E4) *61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (B3, B8, Cl, C2) *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing - ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B5, B8) 65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all manufacturing industries (EOM). --- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B4) 66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (B6) *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8) 116 *205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A. (B7) 811. Twelve leading indicators -- composite index prior to reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) 813. Marginal employment adjustments -- leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) 814. Capital investment commitments -- leading composite index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) 815. Inventory investment and purchasing - leading composite index (includes series 23, 25T 31, and 37) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) 816. Profitability •- leading composite index (includes series 16, 17, and 19) (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) 817. Sensitive financial flows -- leading composite index (includes series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) 820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7, E5) 830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) C Anticipations and Intentions 61. Business expenditures far new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B. 410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q). -- Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics (Cl) 412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics (Cl) 414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Off ice of Business Economics (Cl) 416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying existing capacity as excessive (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Cl) 420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago (percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Cl) 425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) in income of households (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Cl) 430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Cl) 435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). -- University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (Cl) D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) 0446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) 0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) 0464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) 0466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) 0480. Freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American Railroads (CZ) 480. Change in freigit carloadings (Q). -- Association of American railroads (C2) D Other Key Indicators 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). See in section B. 250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in section A. 25Z. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).--See in section A. 253. Imports of goods and services: (Q).--Seem section A. U.S. balance of payments 264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q). --See in section A. 500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Dl) 502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Dl) Titles and Sources of Series (Continued from page 116) 506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Dl) 508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M). -McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (Dl) 564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series 292 divided by series 224) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (E2) 565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to number of persons unemployed (M).-- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2) 570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 512. General imports, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Dl) 575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (E2) 857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2) 520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to all foreigners) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D3) 858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (E2) 522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official agencies) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product accounts (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D3) 602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 525. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -- except military grants -- and errors and omissions) on liquidity balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 527. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -- except military grants -- and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding military assistance (M). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (D3) 621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (D3) 530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners, total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (D3) 532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 535. Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights: U.S. balance of payments (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D3) 549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles and sources of Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61, and section C for D440, D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464, D466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows: D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (E3) F International Comparisons 647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D3) 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). See in section B. 648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D3) 750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4) 47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in section B. 121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (F2) 751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4) 752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4) 781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4, E5, Fl) 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) -- Central Statistical Office (London) (F2) 123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa) (F2) Labor, (D4) Depart(D4) 125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by OECD (F2) 126. France, index of industrial production (M). - Institut National de la Statistsque etdes Etudes Economiques(Paris) (F2) 784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4) 127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome) (F2) 782. Index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of Bureau of Labor Statistics 783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -ment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics E Analytical Measures 47. Index of industrial production (M). See in section B. 48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See in section B. 52. Personal income (M). See in section B. 54. Sales of retail stores (M). See in section B. 55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). See in section B. 200. GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A. 205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A. 206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers (El) 207. Gap -- the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP (Series 205) (Q). -- Council of Economic Advisers (El) 781. Index of consumer prices, all items (M). See in section D. 820. Five coincident indicators - composite index (includes series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B. (D2) 548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (E2) 850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Economics Department (E2) 851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (E2) 852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2) 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial production.) (E2) 128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (F2) 132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -- Ministry of Labour (London) (Fl) 133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa) (Fl) 135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (Fl) 136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- Insitut National de la Statist!que et des Etudes Economiques(Paris) (Fl) 137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome) (Fl) 138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). -- Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo) (Fl) 142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial Times (London) (F3) 143. Canada, index of stock prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa) (F3) 145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (F3) 146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la Statist!que et des Etudes Economiques(Paris) (F3) 147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome) (F3) 148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange (Tokyo) (F3) 781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D. 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