Full text of Business Conditions Digest : January 1971
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JANUARY 1971
DATA THROUGH DECEMBER
A UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE
PUBLICATION
BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
\
U.S.
DEPARTMENT
OF
COMMERCE
Bureau
of the
Census
This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division.
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications for computer processing,
Gerald F. Donahoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic
data. (Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the
Administrative and Publications Services Division.
The cooperation of
which provide data
furnishing data are
at the back of this
various government and private agencies
is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
indicated in the list of series and sources
report.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Maurice H. Stans, Secretary
Rocco C. Siciliano, Under Secretary
Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of
a technical committee established by the Office of Management
and Budget. The committee consists of the following persons:
Julius Shiskin, Chairman
Office of Management and Budget
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive
Office of the President
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
George Hay Brown, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
Edwin D, Goldfield, Assistant Director
Edwin D. Goldfield, Bureau of the Census, Department of
Commerce
George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics, Department of
Commerce
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department
of Labor
Benjamin D. Kaplan, Chief
Statistical Indicators Division
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
ABOUT THE REPORT
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $15 a year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing).
Single issues are $1.50.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge.
For
information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of
This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Bus/ness Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely on
the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government,
and various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Bus/ness Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to
make it more generally useful to those concerned with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable
to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,
D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce field office.
New Features and Changes for This Issue.
BCD
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
JANUARY
1971
Data Through December
Series ESI No. 71-1
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product...
Section B. Cyclical Indicators...
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
3
3
How to Read Charts.^
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
4
4
5
PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income.
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
...
National Income Components
Saving
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
18
21
23
26
28
30
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
34
36
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
40
43
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components..
46
47
Federal Government Activities
52
Price Movements.
54
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change
56
57
59
61
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Fl
F2
F3
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
62
63
64
PART II. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A2
A3
A4
ABA7
A8
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
65
65
66
66
67
67
67
67
68
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Bl
B2
B3
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
69
71
72
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
74
75
76
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
-
78
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
-
79
80
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
82
83
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
85
86
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
87
88
89
92
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
98
99
100
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See December issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
101
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (Not shown this month)
104
105
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
1854 to 1961
110
Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
113
115
ii
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
Changes in this issue are as follows:
changes are made from
trme to time to incorporate recent findIngs of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
1
1. The diffusion indexes of Manufacturers new orders, durable
goods industries (series D6), have been revised for the period
January 1961 through June 1970. These revisions reflect recent
changes in data on manufacturers1 shipments, inventories, and
orders. Revised diffusion indexes reflecting these changes for
the period July 1970 to date have been included in BCD since
September 1970.
seasonal adjustment
metfiods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
diatigei In placement of
2. The series on Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings (series 9) and Contracts and orders for plant and
equipment (series 10) are being seasonally adjusted by the Census
Bureau X-ll Seasonal Adjustment Method—not by the source agency
as reported in the last issue.
3. The Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (series 29) has been revised for the period
January 1967 to date to reflect a new seasonal adjustment.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from
the Construction Statistics Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census.
4*. The series on Total U.S. foreign trade, excluding military
aid (series 500, 502, and 512) have been revised for the year 1970,
These revisions reflect the source agency's annual updating of the
previous year!s statistics. Further information concerning these
revisions may be obtained from the Foreign Trade Division, U.S.
Bureau of the Census.
5. Appendix C contains historical data for series 85, 98, 410,
412, 414, 416, 420a, 420b, 420c, 425a, 425b, 425c, 435, 850, 859,
D23, D54, and D58.
The February issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on February 26.
iii
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition ol
Indexes, etc,
4 CENSUS PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS
DIGEST
CONDITIONS
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
DEFENSE INDICATORS
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of years.
This report brings together
approximately 600 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form which is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current business
conditions and prospects is
the national income model,
the leading indicators,
anticipations and intentions,
or a combination of these.
Other types of data such as
foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. Also, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for purchase.
A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965.
A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on the
national economy.
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development. Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-production-delivery process. Most
are monthly series, although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
IV
The source statements for
FORTRAN IV programs which
are used by the Bureau in
its analysis of time series
are available from the Bureau
on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
program for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X-l 1 variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the
X-11Q for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
8.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1948 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, most
charts contain shading which indicates
periods of recession in general business
activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (QBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing,, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures
the excess of exports over imports of goods
and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both
U.S. purchases of foreign output and the
contribution made to production in the
United States by foreign-owned resources.
More detail on U.S. balance of payments
is provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Persona/ income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period.lt is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 73 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the coincident index. This facilitates
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
<6 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(37 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(17 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices
<I series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins
(4 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
(2 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
commitments
production
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade <3 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
<2 series)
comparisons among the leading, coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks).i Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected group
of economic series. Percent changes at annual rate are shown for 1- and 3-month
spans or for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
•£ Roman number indicates latest
^/quarter for which data are
/
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
sy data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted iy2, 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" —
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of 'Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
1968
1969
1970
Percent change
3dQ
4th Q
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
4th Q
1969
1969
1970
1970
1970
1970
o3
E
IstQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
3dQ
to
4th Q
1970
1970
1970
GO
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross Notional Product
200.
205.
210
215.
217.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann.rate,bil.dol.
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol...
do
865.0
707.2
122.3
4?299
3i515
931.4
727.1
128.1
4»582
3 ? 577
976.8
724.3
134.9
4»754
3t526
942.6
730.9
129.0
4»632
3 1 592
951.7
729,2
130,5
4»663
3t573
959.5
723.8
132.6
4 ? 690
3i538
971.1
724.9
134.0
4t734
3»534
985.5
727.4
135.5
4t791
3f536
990.9
721.3
137,4
4t802
3»496
-0.1
1.5
0.3
1.1
1.2
0.1
712.7
688.7
591.2
499.0
769.5
748.9
631.6
511.5
801.0
801.0
684.7
529.7
779.5
758.1
640.6
515.9
785.2
770.5
650.6
517,8
791.5
782.3
665.3
522.9
797.4
801.3
683.6
532.0
806.6
807.2
693.0
534.2
NA
813.4
696,9
529.8
0.7
2.4
2.8
1.7
1.2
0.7
1.4
0.4
2»939
3»108
3t333
3»148
3»188
3i252
3?333
3i369
3«378
2.5
1.1
2 1 480
2t5l7
2»579
2»535
2f537
2»556
2t594
2»597
2.568
1.5
0.1
Ann.rate,bil.dol .
do
do
do
do
do
. do .
535.8
452.3
577.5
467.7
616.8
477.2
582.1
468.7
592,6
471,7
603.1
474.0
614,4
478.1
622.1
479.6
627,6
477.1
84.0
53.8
30.2
90.0
58.2
31.8
89.4
61.2
28.2
89.5
57.9
31.6
90,8
58.3
32.5
89.1
60.2
28.9
91.9
61.5
30.4
91.2
61.3
29.9
85,4
61.9
23.5
230.2
221.6
245.8
241.6
264.7
262.7
248.1
244.5
252.0
249.8
258.8
255.2
262.6
259.9
265.8
265.1
271.7
270.5
1.9
0.9
3.1
2.2
5.2
1.5
1.8
do
do
do
do
do
do
126.5
139.8
88.7
29.6
59.1
30.3
99.3
33.8
65.5
32.0
135.8
102.6
143.8
101.5
140.2
102.6
133.2
102.6
134.3
102.8
138.3
103.6
137.5
101.4
35.1
67.4
29.7
35.2
66.3
31.0
11.3
35,1
67.5
30.4
35.7
66.9
29.1
35.3
67.5
28.4
35.0
68.6
29.2
34.6
66.8
32.0
1.2
0.2
1.1
0.9
0.5
-0.8
1.4
0.2
-1.1
200
205
210
215
217
A2. National and Personal Income
Ann. rate, bil. dol .
National income current dollars.
do
Personal income current dollars. .
do
Disposable personal income, current dol . . .
do
Disposable personal income, constant dol. .
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol...
current dol lars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
do
constant dollars
220.
222
224.
225.
226.
NA
0.8
0.6
-0.8
0,3
-1.1
220
222
224
225
226
227
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
234
236.
237
Total, current dollars.
Total constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. .
Automobiles current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services current dollars.
....
1.3
0.3
-0.8
-0.3
-1.6
1.2
2.0
0.9
-0.5
-6.4
1.0
-21.4
2.2
2.0
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241
242.
243
244.
245
Gross private domestic investment, total. . .
Fixed investment total nonresidential ....
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
Fixed investment producers' dur. equip.. . .
Fixed investment, residential structures. . .
Change in business inventories, total 2 . . . .
7.6
8.5
3.6
7.2
1.6
3.1
5.5
0.8
0.2
»1.1
0,9
'2.4
4.1
1.5
2.7
0.6
2.8
1.9
3.0
0.8
-0.8
1.6
2.8
2.4
-0.6
-2,1
-1.1
-2.6
9.6
-1.4
240
241
242
243
244
245
A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services2.
252. Exports .
..
253 Imports
do
. do .
do
2.5
1.9
3.6
2.6
2.6
3.5
4.1
4.2
50.6
48.1
55.5
53.6
62.3
58.7
58.3
55.6
58.8
56,2
61.1
57.6
62,8
58,7
62.8
58.6
62.6
59.9
do
do
do
do
200.2
212.2
101.3
220.5
214.1
102.5
216.3
102,1
219.6
102.3
218.4
221.0
223.2
78.8
99.7
76.6
79.8
78.8
79.3
99.7
76.8
98.6
75.8
98.4
74.6
100.7
110.8
120.8
111.6
114.2
117.4
118.7
122.4
124.8
1.1
do
170.4
183.9
185.3
184.8
187.4
185.5
188.5
188.3
179.0
1.6
do
do
5.7
252.5
6.4
267,7
-0.4
7.9
270,1
5.3
274.3
-0.3
-1.9
285.2
280,0
283,3
5.2
286.0
291.4
1.2
do
2.0
2.1
4.0
3.5
1.9
1,9
5,0
0.3
8.6
3.1
do
do
do
do
do
514.1
564.2
599.8
572.2
582.1
592.2
596.4
603.8
606.8
64.1
21.3
85.4
27.8
66.8
22.0
85.8
30.7
67.6
22.7
77.4
33.5
67.5
22.1
86.8
31.0
67.2
22.3
82.0
31.7
67.6
22.5
76.7
32.4
67.8
22.6
77.5
33.1
67.8
22.7
78.4
33.8
67.4
23.0
0.7
0.3
0.4
1.0
2.2
do'
do
128.6
143.6
149*1
144.2
139.3
138.5
140,6
40.4
37.6
42.0
41.1
44.8
51.5
52.7
50.9
21.6
74.0
-7.3
18.5
78.9
19.7
79.4
15.4
80.7
14.3
83.6
14.1
85.0
86.5
8.7
84.3
-9.6
-10.9
-11.2
-7.u
n.fl
•su.n
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-1.5
-0.3
2.2
250
252
253
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262
264.
266.
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
270
Final sales durable goods
99.5
78.0
-0.5
-2.5
-3.2
1.2
-1.1
-1.3
3.1
1.0
-0.2
-1.6
2.0
260
262
264
266
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods2. .
.
274 Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondur-
280.
282
284
286
288
A8. National Income Components
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp profits and inventory va luation adj . .... .
.. ..
Net interest
A9. Saving
290 Gross saving total
...
292 Personal saving .
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances .
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2 . .. . .. .
do..
El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP sao (potential less actual)2
do
do.
do
.
NA
50.0
NA
8.0
7.1
13.6
82.1
-1.2
n.^
Q.U
99 .A
9Q.U
xa.a
-4.5
NA
34.5
NA
NA
NA
aa . 1
-1.6
-0.6
15.0
5.1
1.8
-9.7
A-a
-0.1
7.1
1.0
-4.7
1.2
0.0
0.4
1.2
2.1
1.5
2.3
-1.4
1.7
-0.3
R . e:
-4,9
270
-9.7
1.9
271
274
8.3
275
0.5
280
282
284
286
288
-0.6
1.3
NA
2.1
NA
-3.4
NA
1.8
NA
290
292
294
296
298
i a . o on-7
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1969
1970
Percent change
2dQ
3dQ
4th Q
1970
1970
1970
Oct.
1970
Nov.
Dec.
1970
1970
Oct.
Nov.
to
to
Nov.
1970
Dec.
1970
2dQ
to
3dQ
3dQ
to
4th Q
1970
1970
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj 3.
1967-100
do
ito
117.3
119.7
125.0
115.2
120.8
131.3
114.4
121.5
130.7
115.5
121.0
131.9
115.1
118.8
131.7
114.1
118.7
132.5
114,8
118.1
131.5
116.4
119.6
131.1
0.6
-0.5
-0.8
1,4
1.3
-0.3
1.0
-0.4
0.9
-0.3
-1.8
-0.2
81(
82(
83(
-1.9
81.
81'
81f
81<
81'
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
do
do . ...»
do
do
do
813 Marginal employment adjustments
816 Profitability
102.2
110.0
104.2
100.7
103.0
95.2
94.7
95.2
93.4
92.2
106.7
103.2
106.1
103.4
106.6
102.9
106.8
101.7
105.8
101.6
94.8
94.8
98.3
94.9
96.1
94.8
39.4
39.6
39.7
94.6
NA
93.7
93,7
100.0
102.8
39.9
39.7
NA
93.1
106.7
102.7
95.0
107.9
100.8
NA
1.0
0.9
1.1
0.1
-2.2
2.0
1.1
-1.9
"0.1
NA
0.5
0.5
-0.5
0.0
2.8
0.2
-1.2
1.2
NA
B1. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. .. Hours
21. Avg. weekly overtime hours, production
40.6
do
Ann.rate,thous ..
Per 100 employ..
*5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State 4
unemployment insurance (inverted ) . . Thousands
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted4) 2. • Per 100 employ..
39.8
3.0
39.6
0.5
3.6
5? 149
4.7
3.0
NA
4.0
4i064
4.1
2.9
NA
4.0
2.7
NA
3.7
2.8
NA
3.6
2.7
NA
3.7
2,6
NA
3.8
194
1.2
295
1.8
314
1.9
297
1.8
322
2.0
341
2.2
333
2.0
291
1.7
2.3
0.2
319
228
NA
174
250
180
NA
168
NA
149
NA
146
NA
148
NA
152
NA
1,4
-0.1
NA
0.1
0.3
-0.1
NA
0.1
12.6
0.3
-0.5
-0.1
NA
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
2
NA
-0.3
5.4
0.1
-8.4
-0.2
NA
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies:
49. Nonagri. job openings unfilled
Thous., EOP....
1957-59=100....
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
establishments.
Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Millions
do
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities. . .
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted4) 2 . . .Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment
do
rate (inverted4) 2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
4 2
do
(inverted )
139.1
138.6
139.1
70.3
74.3
70.7
75.2
70.9
74.9
138.3
70.5
75.1
137.2
70.2
75,2
137.0
70.2
75.4
137.0
70.1
75.2
137.5
70.4
75.1
0,0
NA
2.7
-6.7
NA
-11.3
4
4
0.4
0,4
-0,6
-0.6
-0.8
-0.4
4
4
4
-0,1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
3.5
5.0
4.8
5.2
5.8
5.6
5.8
6.0
2.1
3.5
3.5
3.9
4,2
4.4
4.4
3.9
1.5
2.6
2.5
2.8
3,2
3.1
3.2
3.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.9
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.3
-0.1
-0.3
Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
1957-59=100....
931.4
727.1
172.8
976.8
724.3
971.1
724.9
169.3
985.5
727.4
990.9
167.6
Ann.rate,bil.dol..
do
748.9
801.0
198.0
801.3
198.3
807.2
do
do
do
If 246
NA
922.9
973.2
351.5
NA
i» 278
968.1
366.2
123.6
NA
NA
355.1
195
94.9
93.5
26.0
74.2
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.1
-0.4
-0.6
4
-0.4
-0.3
4
-0.3
-0,4
4
-0.2
-0.2
4
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
do
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200 GNP in current dollars
*205 GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
o
Comprehensive Income:
53 Wages salaries in mining mfg constr..
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
57 Final sales
194.5
167.9
198.7
721.3
162.6
813.4
195,6
1.5
0.3
162.3
161.6
163.9
-0.4
809.9
812.6
193.6
817.8
199.4
-0.1
193.7
0.3
1.4
-0.8
0.6
3.0
0.7
0.2
1.6
1.2
0.9
It 299
NA
It275
It261
NA
-1.1
NA
980.0
369.6
986.8
NA
366.4
362.1
NA
-1.2
NA
114.2
112.4
111.7
269,9
NA
NA
111.4
266.2
256,9
280.7
NA
NA
353.8
367.2
350.4
342.0
186
192
195
179
348.1
202
361.1
205
87.5
98.2
88.4
78.6
82.4
74.6
0.5
-0.8
-3.2
0.8
-1.6
20
20
4
5
5
NA
0.7
NA
5
5
5
NA
NA
1
1
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
1957-59=100....
Ann. rate, thous, .
273.2
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . .Ann.rate.bil.dol..
368.2
1957-59=100....
8. Construction contracts, total value
194
Ann.rate.bil.dol..
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. . .
95.7
do
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
29.8
do
24. New orders, producers' cap. goods Indus .
78.7
Ann.rate.mil.sq.
9. Construction contracts, commercial
ft
floor
space
.
.
905
and industrial buildings
28. New private housing units started, total.. Ann. rate, thous. . It 486
1957-59=100....
»29. New bldg. permits, private housing.
110.7
NA
76.8
769
1»451
110.4
94.6
28.1
77.9
707
767
It286
It512
105.0
113.6
81.22
79.56
22.65
91.4
0.3
9.3
NA
NA
1.8
3.7
1.5
-10.0
12.8
12,2
NA
78.6
654
It 753
132.2
It583
127.1
648
It 688
124.4
693
It 987
145.1
79,05
78.69
78.88
79.05
621
4,8
4.3
6,6
-2.1
-9,5
6.9
17,7
16.6
-1.6
1.4
3.8
3.2
1.2
8.1
5.0
-4.6
8.5
'14.7
17.6
8.2
1.6
-3.4
NA
0.9
1
1
2
15.9
16.4
2
2
-0.6
9
9
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries 5 Bil.dol., EOF...
do
97. Backlog of capital approp., mfg.5
86.21
23.85
79.05
NA
22.85
NA
0,2
0.2
-2.0
-0.9
NA
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Nov.
Oct.
1969
1970
2dQ
1970
3dQ
1970
4th Q
1970
Oct.
1970
Nov.
1970
Dec.
1970
to
to
Nov.
1970
Dec.
1970
3dQ
to
4th Q
2dQ
to
3dQ
1970
1970
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS--Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment— Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip . .Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
do
75.54
80.51
80.22
81.88 a81.72
92.20
NA
94.25
96.34
NA
2.1
93.27
93.81
NA
0.6
NA
3.8
6,2
NA
2.4
NA
2.2
-0.2
NA
61
69
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business inventories, all
industries2.
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
Ann. rate, billion
dollars
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
Percent. .
Ann. rate, billion
dollars
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies2.
26. Buying policy, production materials.,
commitments 60 days or longer2 ©. . . .
Percent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
do
slower deliveries @
;
25. Change in unfilled
orders, durable goods Ann. rate, billion
industries2.
dollars
8.5
3.6
3.1
5.5
4.1
12.2
NA
4.9
10.6
NA
50
46
44
46
45
46
48
42
2
1.2
NA
-1.1
0.7
NA
3.6
3.6
NA
0.0
2.4
-1.4
245
5.7
NA
31
-6
2
-1
37
NA
1.8
NA
20
63
55
57
51
53
54
54
52
0
-2
-6
2
26
65
51
64
47
37
38
36
36
-2
0
-17
-10
32
-6.6
-2.1
2.3
1.9
12.7
2.6
4.5
25
2,6
-7.2
-9.2
-10.4
-0.4
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories5. . Bil.dol., EOP...
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
do
164.9
NA
167.4
170.0
NA
170.4
170.9
NA
0.3
NA
1.6
NA
71
31.64
NA
33.09
33.70
NA
34.18
34.38
NA
0.6
NA
1.8
NA
65
111.8
114.3
117.3
111.8
108,7
109.9
109.3
106.8
-0.5
-2.3
-4.7
-2.8
23
84.4
84.3
90.0
-0.1
6.8
-0.6
9.5
19
3.4
NA
16
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices ©
1957-59=100....
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks @
1941-43=10
97.8
83.2
79.2
78.7
86.2
Profits and Prof it Mar gins:
*16 Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
48.5
44.4
43.9
45.4
NA
15. Profits(after taxes) per do 1. of sales, mfg.2
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Percent
Cents
1957-59=100....
10.2
4.8
99.0
NA
NA
97.4
9.0
4.2
98.1
9.1
4.1
97.4
NA
NA
96.1
96,6
96.7
94.9
0,1
-1.9
0.1
-0.1
-0.7
NA
NA
-1.3
22
15
17
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities @. 1957-59=100....
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®.
112.6
113.3
116.9
117.6
116.5
117.1
117.1
118.1
118.4
118.7
118.3
118.6
118.3
118.7
118.7
118.7
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.5
0.9
1.1
0.5
55
58
Dollars
1957-59=100....
0.763
114.4
0.809
120^7
0.802
119.4
0.811
121.2
NA
123.5
122.8
122.7
125.1
-0.1
2.0
1.1
1.5
NA
1.9
68
62
Ann. rate, percent
do
Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
2
do
* 1 13 Chanse in consumer installment debt *..
do
do
-1.0
3.1
19,9
8.1
7.4
91.9
11.2
5.3
NA
NA
1.1
NA
9.8
5.8
17.7
4.6
-1.2
84.1
18.6
6.1
22.3
4.1
11.4
84.2
12.6
3.4
NA
NA
-1.7
NA
10.8
1.1
24.5
-1.0
-1.4
9.1
2.8
21.2
-3.6
-3.7
17.8
6.2
NA
NA
0.0
-1.7
1.7
-3.3
-2.6
-2.3
8.7
3.4
NA
NA
3.7
8.8
0.3
4.6
-0.5
12.6
0.1
-6.0
-2.7
NA
NA
-13.1
NA
98
85
33
113
112
110
1.14
1.89
1.80
2.62
1,55
1.74
1.44
1.46
17.2
-1.4
-45.6
40.8
14
1.81
NA
1.81
1.90
NA
1.90
NA
NA
NA
NA
-0.09
NA
39
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in money supply and time
Credit Difficulties:
do
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.4) ©
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans
4 2 5
Percent,
EOP. . . .
(inverted ")
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted4)2 ©
Mi II ion dollars...
-871
-619
-733
-745
-197
-208
-305
-77
97
-228
12
-548
93
Money Market Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate 2 <§)
116 Corporate bond yields2 ©
Percent
6.69
8.06
6.12
5.72
6.44
9.05
6.58
6.35
6.75
9.44
6.82
6.82
6.38
9.06
6.65
6.33
5.36
8.75
6.27
5.93
5.93
9.14
6.59
6.39
5.29
8.97
6.24
5.93
4.86
8.13
5.97
5.46
-0.64
-0.17
-0.35
-O.46
-0.43
-0.84
-0.27
-0.47
-0.37
-0.38
-0.17
-0.49
-1.02
-0.31
-0.38
-o.uo
114
116
115
117
117. Municipal bond vields2 <S>
do
do
do
Basic data 1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Oct.
1969
1970
2dQ
3dQ
4th Q
1970
1970
1970
Nov.
1970
Oct.
1970
Dec.
1970
Nov.
to
to
Nov.
1970
Dec.
1970
2dQ
to
3dQ
3dQ
to
4th Q
1970
1970
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6. Money and Credit— Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
Bil.dol., EOP...
66. Consumer instal Iment debt 5
do
*72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding 3 . . .
96.2
80.8
80.8
98.3
78.1
99.4
81.4
80.8
99.3
80.9
99.0
80.6
80.8
-0.3
-0.4
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 2(g). . . Percent
do
118. Mortgage yields residential 2 ©
8.21
8.29
8.48
9.03
8.49
9.12
8.50
9.06
8.07
8.76
8,97
8.90
8.40
-0.07
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.2
1.1
4.2
66
72
-0.06
-0.43
-0.30
67
118
0.01
-0.50
NA
-0.7
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl . Foreign Trade
500. Merchandise trade balance2
502 Exports excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods except motor
vehicles
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
512. General imports
Ann. rate,bil.dol..
. do
. ... do
1957-59=100 ....
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
1.3
37.3
14.7
256
36.0
2.8
42.7
NA
NA
39.9
4.0
3.3
43.7
43.3
16.0
17.2
267
277
1.5
42.8
NA
NA
39.7
40.0
-5.80
-7.98
-3.42
-8.19
NA
NA
41.2
2.1
0.0
44.5
41.6
16.6
16.3
225
42.3
239
41.5
2.4
42.2
NA
NA
39.8
-2.1
2.4
-0.7
-1.8
500
-6.5
1.4
-0.9
-1.2
502
-1.8
NA
NA
6.2
-1.9
7.5
3.7
0.8
-4.1
NA
NA
3.0
506
508
512
NA
NA
520
522
D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
520
Liquidity balance basis 2
522. Official settlements basis 2
do
do
-7.01
2.70
NA
NA
2.38
-0.21
D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts 2
601. Federal receipts, national income and
product accounts
602. Federal expenditures, national income
and product accounts
264. National defense purchases
616. Defense Dept. obligations total
621 Defense Dept obligations procurement
647. New orders defense products industries
648. New orders defense products
625. Military contract awards in U S
do
9.3
-10.8
-1402
-Ht8
NA
do
200.6
195.4
196.7
194.9
NA
do
191.3
do
78.8
do
81.1
do
20.9
do
47.2
do . ... 23.1
do
35.5
206.2
210.9
1957-59=100 .... 127.7
do
113.0
206.7
209.5
75.8
78.2
19.2
49.2
27.7
31.0
74.6
47.0
23.5
33.6
76.8
77.1
18.2
44.0
20.5
30.4
NA
117.1
134.6
116.8
76.6
76.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
2.4
-0.9
-2.0
-1.3
87.6
26.7
NA
NA
15.0
53.4
48.0
24.8
38.8
76.2
17.4
47.4
25.4
42.8
49.0
24.2
34.4
47.8
24.7
39.1
-19.6
136.1
117.6
NA
117.8
137.4
117.8
137.8
117.7
NA
117.8
-0.1
72.3
3.4
-4.7
-2.4
2.1
11.8
35.1
601
1.4
602
264
616
621
647
648
625
NA
NA
-2.4
-10.5
2.0
13.7
600
-1.6
1.4
5.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
25.2
D4. Price Movements
781 Consumer prices all items ©
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities @
0.3
NA
0.1
1.1
0.7
NA
0.2
781
750
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 2 . .
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
and trade
Ratio
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
do
durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
1957-59=100 ....
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
Ratio
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
do
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. . 1957-59=100
856. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers manufacturing
•
1957-59 dollars..
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
do
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. •
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing 2 © • . Percent
83.7
-1.8
78.0
76.2
1.53
NA
1.57
1.57
NA
1.60
1.63
NA
1.9
NA
3.15
NA
3.00
2.86
NA
2.87
2.92
NA
1.7
NA
113.9
113.6
111.3
120.8
116.0
116.5
113.8
112.9
0.060
0.073
0.075
0.076
0.073
0.127
134.2
NA
NA
0.065
134.6
NA
136,1
NA
NA
2.50
NA
2.48
2.50
NA
77.40
5.0
77.62
4.9
78.28
5.0
NA
4.9
NA
4.8
-0.3
-2.0
-3.9
0.0
-4.7
-2.3
1.3
NA
NA
NA
2.45
2.46
NA
77.05
76.84
NA
NA*
0.4
-0.3
NA
NA
1.1
NA
NA
851
NA
852
-0.8
853
-3.9
854
NA
NA
855
858
0.8
NA
856
0.3
NA
859
857
-0.1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period.
850
NA
-0.1
NA = not available,
1
In many cases, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published by the source agencies or they-are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series)
are averages or totals of the data as shown in part II.
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Index for the latest month excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
4
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(May) (Feb.)
P T
1950 51
52
53
54
55
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
JANUARY
1971
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
1950
51
52
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
10
JANUARY
1971
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
1950
51
52
(July)
_P
(Aug.)
J_
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
JANUARY 1971
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A4
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC
1950
51
52
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
53
54
INVESTMENT
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
12
JANUARY 1971
itcn
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
+10-1
+5-
(H
7570-
6560-
55-;
50-
457065605550454035-
30J32
S
25-'
20-
15-
10J
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 67»
BCII JANUARY 1971
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
1950
51
52
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
14
JANUARY 1971
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
1950 51
52
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
JANUARY 1971
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A8
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
1950
51
52
(July)
P
(Aug.)
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P
I
(July) (Apr.)
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
16
JANUARY 1971
ItCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SAVING
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1950
51
52
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
JANUARY
1971
17
Section
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1950 51
52
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
59
60
61
it 1
tti
Ii i
tti
tit
tti
iii
iii
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
18
JANUARY
1971
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1950 51
52
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
]|| JANUARY 1971
19
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(luly)
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Lagging Indicators
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
20
JANUARY 1971
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
1950 51
52
P
T
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
JANUARY 1971
KCII
21
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
1000950900850800750-
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
22
JANUARY 1971
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
1950 51
52
P
T
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1972
*This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 72,
BCI»
JANUARY 1971
23
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
1950
70
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.
24
JANUARY 1971
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
.agging Indicators
1
1
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
JANUARY
1971
25
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
_P
T
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
26
JANUARY 1971
BCI»
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
100-1
perce it of c impann $ repoi jng $1 wer de
75-
50-
25J
0--
_2 J
Lagging Indicators
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
ItCII
JANUARY 1971
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
cos:, mm factun g (inde : 1957 59-100
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
28
JANUARY 1971
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
(Aug.)
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
959085J
Lagging Indicators
0.85-1
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
BCII
JANUARY 1971
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
1950
51
52
(July)
(Aug.)
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
30
JANUARY 1971 BUI
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
(May) (Feb.)
P T
P
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
JANUARY
1971
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
I
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
-1.5-1
-1.0-0.50-1
8-1
7654J
10n
**
^
8-
^
765J
7-1
v^
^
/^>
5-
6-
r^ "V^*
X—
543-
^- f
f i i *t
11
1950 51
2H1
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
32
JANUARY 1971
s
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
1950
51
52
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
JANUARY
1971
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(July) (Aug.)
P
1950 51
(July) (Apr.)
(May) (Feb.;
P T
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 78. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
1 Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
34
JANUARY
1971
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
1950
51
52
(July)
(Aug.)
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
IBMl JANUARY 1971
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
1950
51
52
(July)
(Aug.)
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 72, and 73.
36
JANUARY 1971
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
1950 51
52
(July)
(Aug.)
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 75, and 76.
BUI JANUARY 1971
37
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1950
51
52
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T_
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 70 and 71.
38
JANUARY
1971
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
1950 51
52
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
_P
T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 70, 73, 74, 75, and 77.
licit
JANUARY 1971
39
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
(July)
P
(May)
P
(Apr.)
T
(Feb.)
T
;
il?SISIlili!S^^
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
*
67
68
69
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
Digitized for 40
FRASER
JANUARY 1971
BCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(July)
P
(Apr.)
T
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
410, Manufacturers' sales, total value, Q (bil. dol.)
412, Manufacturers' inventories, total
book value, Q (bil. dol.)
414. Condition ef manufacturers' inventories:
percent considered high less percent
considered low, Q (percent)
of manufacturers' capacity: percent
in<ide(|u<!te less percent considered
Q [percent]
1957
58
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
JANUARY 1971
41
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
W)
P
(May)
P
(Apr.)
T
(Feb.)
T
compared IB income a year ag& Q
households reporting no change to family income (percent)
s*~*\
Brcerrt of households reportiig higher family income (percent)
'ercent of households reporting tower family income (percent)
changes to income of households, Q
M ean probability of
{3) Mean probability of increase to family income (percent)
(b) Increase less decrease (percent)
(c) Mean probability of decrease to family income (percent)
(arm. rate, mH. cam]
Actual, 2-ouarter moving avg.
X
(d) Antic^atrons as percent of actual data (percent)
1957
58
59
60
61
62
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
42
JANUARY 1971
itcn
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(July)
P
(May)
P
(Apr.)
T
(Feb.)
T
New orders, manufacturing (44 span)1
.*•*»«,..
manufacturing and trade (44 span)1
manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)'
1957
58
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
^his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
JANUARY
1971
43
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(July)
P
(May)
P
(Apr.)
T
(Feb.)
T
J450. Level 9! inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
Jelling prices, manufacturing and trade [4-Q spat)1
Selling prices, manufacturing (441 span]
Selling prices, wholesale trade (44 span)
Selling prices, retail trade (44 span)1
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
69
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
T
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
44
JANUARY
1971
ItCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(July)
P
(May)
P
(Apr.)
T
(Feb.)
T
ness expenditures for new plant and equipment, alt industries (1-Q span)
(a! Actual expenditures
100-
50-
0-1
100-1
50-
0-1
100-1
50-
+0.5-1
0-
-0.5-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
JANUARY 1971
45
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
1950 51
52
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
46
JANUARY
1971
ltd*
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
1950
51
52
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
59
60
61
62
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960 except for series 520.
*The 1970 figures for series 520, 522, 525 and 527 include $217 million allocation of Special Drawing Rights.
BM) JANUARY 1971
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Includes unilateral transfers and errors and omissions.
47
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS -Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services-Con.
48n
44-
530.
iquid I Jbilitie; to all foreigrers, ou stand! j at et d of p riod
24-
20-
16-
12-
532 Liquid and ce tail no ilkiuid
foreig officii I age
;tandigat eidof feriod
8-
\
4J
at end ofpe^it
534. US. off :ial
•\
20-
16-
12-1
i 11 i ii 111 ill
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
11 t i i i
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.
48
JANUARY 1971
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(July) (Aug.)
_P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
68-.
64-
60-
56-
52-
484448-
44-
40-
36-
32-
28-
24-
2016-
12-
4J
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
ItCII
JANUARY 1971
49
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Section D
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
12 i
0J
4-
0-
8-
4- .
012-
8-
<
4-
0-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
50
JANUARY 1971
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
+8-
+4-
0-1
+4-
0-1
0-
-4-
4-4 T
75. Bi iking nd oth r capr al tran: action , net
0-
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
BCD
JANUARY 1971
51
Section D
i Chart D3
1950
51
52
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P.
T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
52
JANUARY 1971
110
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
100-1
9080706050-
765-
3.22
S
2-
6l
54-
3-
1J
51
3-
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
IBM!
JANUARY 1971
53
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS
1950
51
52
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P
!_
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
54
JANUARY 1971
licit
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Section D
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
1950
51
52
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
_P
T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
BCII JANUARY
1971
55
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ACTUAL AND. POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
380-i
1950 51
58
52
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
68
69
70
71 1972
1
Current data for these series are shown on page 87.
Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 4th quarter 1970.
56
BCI»
•fe,4
JANUARY 1971
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1950
51
52
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 88.
JANUARY
1971
57
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.
1950
51
52
(July)
(Aug.)
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 88.
58
JANUARY
1971
KCIt
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Section E
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P . T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
280260240220200180160140-
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'"This is a copyrighted series used by permission: it mav not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 89 and 90.
ltd* JANUARY
1971
59
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
T
10050-
100-,
50-
0-
100-,
500-
100-,
50-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 91.
60
JANUARY 1971
BCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
RATES OF CHANGE
(July)
P
(May)
P
(Apr.)
T
(Feb.)
T
200. ft) GNP in current dollars (1-Q span)
ttiP It constant doMars..M *wl
Index Of § coincident 'indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, §0]
41. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities |seas. adj.)
Index of consumer prices, all items (seas, adj.)
fppfr
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Index—Series Finding Guide,* pp, 113 and 114
JANUARY 1971
61
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart Fl
CONSUMER PRICES
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1950 51
52
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 98.
62
JANUARY 1971
Section F
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
1950 51
52
(July)
(Aug.)
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 99.
JANUARY 1971
63
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
STOCK PRICES
1950
51
52
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 100.
64
JANUARY 1971
BCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
200. Current dollars
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
205. Constant (1958) dollars
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
a. Total
210. Implicit price deflator
b. Difference c. Percent
change
at annual
(Ann. rate, rate
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
a. Total
b. Difference
(Index:
1958=100)
(Index:
1958-100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
834-9
858.1
875.8
891.4
+19.0
+23.2
+17.7
+15.6
+9.6
+11.6
+8.5
+7.4
693.5
705.4
712.6
717.5
+9.9
+11.9
+7.2
+4.9
+5.9
+7.1
+4.2
+2.8
120.4
121.6
122.9
124.2
+1.0
+1.2
+1.3
+1.3
+3.5
+4.3
+4.2
+4-5
+16.2
+16.1
+18.9
+9.1
+7.4
+7.3
+3.4
+3.9
722.1
726.1
730.9
729.2
+4.6
+4-0
+4.8
-1.7
+2.6
+2.2
42.7
-0.9
125.7
127.2
129.0
130.5
+1.5
+1.5
+1.8
+1.5
+4.7
+5.0
+5.6
+4-9
+7.8
+11.6
+U-4
Pf5.4
+3.3
723.8
724.9
727.4
P721.3
-5.4
+1.1
+2.5
p-6.1
-2.9
+0.6
+1.4
P-3.3
132.6
134.0
135.5
P137.4
+2.1
+1.4
+1.5
Pfl.9
+6.4
+4.3
1969
907.6
923.7
942.6
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
951.7
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
959.5
971.1
985.5
P990.9
+4.9
+6.1
Pf2.2
+4-6
Pf5.7
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
1 NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
215. Per capita 217. Per capita 220. National
GNP, constant
income in curGNP, current
dollars
(1958) dollars
rent dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. ratet
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita, 227. Per capita,
current dollars
constant(1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann, rate, dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter •
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
4,165
4,271
4,347
4,412
3,460
3,511
3,537
3,551
687.2
706.1
722.2
735.2
664.0
680.9
697.6
712.5
574.9
588.4
595.6
606.0
492.3
498.6
501.2
504.0
2,868
2,928
2,956
2,999
2,456
2,482
2,488
2,495
3,566
3,578
3,592
3,573
749.3
764.0
779.5
785.2
725.8
741.1
758.1
770.5
612.0
623.0
640.6
650.6
504.7
507.5
515.9
517.8
3,023
3,070
3,148
3,188
2,493
2,501
2,535
2,537
3,538
3,534
3,536
p3,496
791.5
797.4
806.6
(NA)
782.3
801.3
807.2
P813.4
665.3
683.6
693.0
p696.9
522.9
532.0
534.2
P529.8
3,252
3,333
3,369
P3,378
2,556
2,594
2,597
p2,568
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
4,483
4,551
4,632
4,663
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
4,690
4,734
4,791
P4,802
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The'V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9, 10, and 61.
KCII
JANUARY 1971
65
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
230. Total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
232. Durable
goods, total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
234. Automobiles
233. Durable
goods, total except in current dollars
autos, in current
dollars
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
519.7
529.1
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
534.8
550.8
445.0
448.4
457.7
79.9
82.6
86.7
86.9
51.5
53.4
54.7
55.6
28.4
29.2
32.0
31.3
225.6
227.6
232.6
234.8
214-2
218.9
224.5
229.0
463.3
89.1
90.6
89.5
90.8
57.6
59.1
57.9
58.3
31.5
31.5
31.6
32.5
239.2
244.0
248.1
252.0
233.5
238.7
244.5
249.8
89.1
91.9
28.9
91.2
60.2
61.5
61.3
30.4
P85.4
p6l.9
258.8
262.6
265.8
p271.7
255.2
259.9
265.1
P270.5
458.1
1969
561.8
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
573.3
582.1
467.1
468.7
592.6
471.7
603.1
614-4
622.1
474.0
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
p627.6
478.1
479.6
F477.1
29.9
P23.5
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
244. Residential
structures
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
119.8
127.3
126.5
132.6
88.3
86.4
88.3
91.6
29.8
28.9
29.4
30.3
58.5
57.5
59.0
61.3
28.8
30.6
29.9
31.7
+2.6
+10.4
+3.2
+9.3
136.0
139.3
143.8
140.2
95.7
97.5
101.5
102.6
32.6
32.3
35.2
35.1
63.1
65.2
66.3
67.5
33.0
33.9
31.0
30.4
+7.4
+7.9
+11.3
+7.2
133.2
134.3
138.3
102.6
102.8
103.6
plOl.4
35.7
35.3
35.0
P34-6
66.9
29.1
28.4
29.2
P32.0
+1.6
+3.1
+5.5
Pf4.1
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
P137.5
67.5
68.6
p66.8
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The"r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
66
JANUARY 1971
IN:
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
Qj FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
252. Exports
of goods and
services
253. Imports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate
bil. dol.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
262. Federal
260. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
264. National
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1969
+1.8
+3.4
+3.4
+1.4
47.7
50.7
53.2
50.9
45.9
47.3
49.8
49.5
193.6
198.3
202.1
206.7
96.4
98.9
100.7
101.9
76.3
77.8
78.6
79.2
97.2
99-4
101.4
104.7
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+1.3
+1.3
+2.6
+2.6
47.8
57.2
58.3
58.8
46.5
55.9
55.6
56.2
208.5
209.9
214.1
216.3
100.9
99.8
102.5
102.1
78.6
77.9
79.8
78.8
107.5
110.1
111.6
114.2
+3.5
+4.1
+4.2
p+2.7
61.1
62.8
62.8
p62.6
57.6
58.7
58.6
P59.9
219.6
218.4
221.0
p223.2
102.3
99.7
98.6
P98.4
79.3
76.8
75.8
P74.6
117.4
118.7
122.4
P124.S
1970
First quarter
Second quarter.
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
H
Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Durable goods
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
280. Compensation 282. Proprietors'
of employees
income
Nondurable goods
271. Change in
274. Final sales
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
284. Rental income
of persons
275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First quarter
Second quarter —
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
165.2
168.0
173.1
175.3
+2.5
+7.1
+5.8
+7.2
246.4
249.8
255.9
258.0
+0.1
+3.2
+2.4
+2.1
495.3
507.6
520.9
532.5
62.9
63.8
64.4
65.2
21.3
21.3
21.3
21.3
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth Quarter ....
180.5
182.7
184.8
187.4
+5.6
+6.7
+7.9
+5.3
260.4
266.1
270.1
274.3
+1.8
+1.2
+3.5
+1.9
544.9
557.5
572.2
582.1
66.0
66.7
67.5
67.2
21.6
22.0
22.1
22.3
185.5
188.5
188.3
P179.0
-0.3
-1.9
+5.2
P-4.5
280.0
283.3
286.0
P291.4
+1.9
+5.0
+0.3
p+8.6
592.2
596.4
603.8
P606.8
67.6
67.8
67.8
p67.4
22.5
22.6
22.7
P23.0
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p w , preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 14, 15, and 16°
ItUI
JANUARY 1971
67
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
E
Year
and
quarter
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
U| SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
288. Net interest
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
294. Undistributed 296. Capital consumption
corporate profits
plus inventory valu- allowances
ation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First Quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
81.3
86.0
87.4
87.1
26.4
27.3
28.2
29.1
121.6
129.6
129.8
133.5
40.8
44.5
36.5
39.6
19.3
22.6
23.3
21.3
72.3
73.7
74.6
75.5
-10.7
-11.2
-4-5
-2.9
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
87.1
87.4
86.8
82.0
29.7
30.4
31.0
31.7
138.5
142.5
149.1
144.2
34.3
33.3
42.0
41.1
19.6
19.2
19.7
15.4
77.0
78.2
79.4
80.7
+7.7
+11.8
+8.0
+7.1
76.7
77.5
78.4
(NA)
32.4
33.1
33.8
P34.5
139.3
138.5
HO. 6
(NA)
44.8
51.5
52.7
P50.9
13.6
U.3
14.1
(NA)
r82.1
83.6
r85.0
P86.5
-1.2
-10.9
-11.2
(NA)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter.
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; ap", preliminary;
V, estimated; M a", anticipated; and B NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16 and 17.
JANUARY
1971
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
IjH EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
....
Minor Economic
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Process
*1. Average
workweek of
production workers, manufacturing1
Year
and
month
(Hours)
2. Accession
21. Average
4. Nonagriculweekly overtime tural placements, rate, manufachours, production all industries1
turing1
workers, manufacturing 1
(Per 100
(Hours)
(Thous.)
employees)
Job Vacancies
3. Layoff rate,
*5. Average
manufacturing
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs2
(Per 100
(Thous.)
employees)
49. Nonagricul- 46. Index of
tural job
help-wanted advertising in
openings un1
newspapers
filled
(Thous.)
(1957-59=100)
1969
372
375
365
229
231
181
182
197
l.l
l.l
377
387
383
234
233
228
1 1
1.2
1.2
358
346
346
228
224
0)235
4.9
4.7
4.8
H>179
4.0.9
448
459
439
40.8
40.7
40.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
447
434
456
4.9
4.8
4.9
40.6
April
May
June
40.1
224
1.1
1.1
1.1
3.8
3.5
3.7
January .
February
March
186
185
1.2
July
August
September
40.6
40.6
40.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
438
425
421
4.7
4.5
4.8
195
196
200
October
November
December
40.5
40.5
40.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
405
401
376
4.7
4-4
4.6
202
211
210
1.3
1.3
1.4
343
338
319
r227
222
217
January
February
March
40.3
39.9
40.2
3.3
3.2
3.2
387
361
357
4.2
4.3
3.9
232
250
263
1.5
1.7
1.8
314
306
292
203
203
194
April
May
June
40.0
39.8
39.8
3.0
2.9
3.1
349
338
329
4.0
4.2
4.0
326
313
303
2.0
1.9
1.9
272
257
250
186
180
175
July
August
September
40.1
39.8
39.3
3.0
3.0
2.8
(M)
4.1
4.1
3.8
265
288
338
1.6
1.8
1.9
(NO
172
170
162
October
November
December
r39.6
P39.7
3.6
3.7
341
333
291
2.2
2.0
E> -
1970
39.4
r2.8
r2.7
p2.6
P3.8
pl.7
146
148
P152
1971
January
February .
March
. .
April
May
June
. .
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [R>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
SB).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 18, 19, and 36.
Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are: Series 1, 41.6 reached in Mar. 1966; Series 21, 4.1 in May 1966;
2
Series 4, 586 in May 1962; Series 2, 5.2 in Mar. 1966; Series 49, 4-37 in July 1966.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is
included in figures published by source agency.
BCII JANUARY 1971
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
IJQj EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT»Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
....
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
*43. Unemployment rate, total
(Thous.)
(Percent)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
1969
January
February
March
137.22
137.21
138. 41
69,352
69,605
69,827
73,364
73,688
73,940
April ...
May
June
138.60
139.22
139.26
69,992
70,172
70,347
July
August
September
139.50
139.75
139.76
October
November
December
139-90
139.97
3.4
E>3.3
3.4
2.1
2.1
1.4
1.4
2.0
i>i.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
73,928
73,544
74,058
3.5
3.5
3.4
2.0
E>2.0
2.1
1.5
1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
70,400
70,497
70,567
74,370
74,528
74,696
3.5
3.5
3.8
2.2
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.5
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
74,999
75,094
75,302
3.8
3.5
3.5
2.2
2.3
2.3
1.6
1.5
1.7
E>o.4
D 140. 25
70,836
70,808
70,8^2
January
February
March
139.44
139.70
no. 21
70,992
71,135
D 71,242
D 75, 615
75,323
75,562
3.9
4.2
4-4
2.5
2.6
2.7
1.8
2.0
2.2
0.5
0.6
0.7
April
May
June
139.74
139.05
138.39
71,149
70,839
70,629
75,338
74,836
74,671
4.8
5.0
4.7
3.1
3.6
3.7
2.4
2.6
2.5
0.7
0.7
0.8
July
August
September
138.70
138.24
138.09
70,587
70,414
70,531
75,119
75,025
75,025
5.0
5.1
5.5
3.5
3.7
r4.4
2.7
2.8
2.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
r!37.04
rl37.00
p!37.50
r70,!82
r70,076
p70,364
75,398
75,202
75,061
5.6
5.8
6.0
4.4
4.4
3.9
3.1
3.2
3.3
0.9
1.0
1.3
0.5
0.5
1970
.
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
. .
.. .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [R}; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p" F preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 19, 20, 38, and 39.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico "which is included in figures published by source agency.
70
JANUARY 1971
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
g| PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, A ND TRADE
—
....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Production
Comprehensive Income
*200. Gross na- *205. Gross na- *47, Index of
industrial protional product
tional product
n current dolin 1958 dollars duction
ars
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1969
January
February
March
907.6
(1957-59=100)
722.1
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales
57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
*54. Sales of
retail stores
245)
(Mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
169.1
170.1
171.4
720.2
725.2
732.0
187.2
187.6
190.9
100,192
101,418
101,776
900.2
(Mil. dol.)
28,955
29,257
28,881
April
May
June
923.7
726.1
171.7
172.5
173.7
736.3
740.9
746.2
191.6
192.6
194.7
102,704
103,349
104,140
915.9
29,409
29,386
29,371
July
August . ...
September
. .
942.6
H> 730.9
S>174.6
174.3
173.9
752.7
758.5
763.1
195.7
197.1
198.0
103,668
105,295
106,078
931.2
29,090
29,346
29,259
951.7
729.2
173.1
171.4
171.1
766.7
770.6
774.3
198.8
198.8
200.6
106,593
105,566
105,021
944.5
29,620
29,471
29,419
959.5
723.8
170.4
170.5
171.1
777.8
781.5
787.6
199.1
198.9
0)200.7
104,932
106,164
105,487
957.9
29,570
29,980
29,801
October
November .
December
1970
January
February
March
...
April
May
June
971.1
724.9
170.2
169.0
168.8
806.0
799.7
798.2
199.2
197.7
198.0
105,087
106,847
107,612
968.1
30,536
30,502
30,518
July
. ..
August
September
985.5
727.4
169.2
168.8
165.8
803.3
806.4
811.9
198.9
198.8
198.3
Jj) 108, 393
108,175
108,074
980.0
30,729
30,781
(H) 30,885
E> P990.9
P721.3
rl62.3
rl6l.6
pl63.9
r809.9
r8!2.6
[H)p817.8
193.7
193.6
p!99.4
r 106, 224
p!05,057
(NA)
[H>p986.8
r30,534
p30,173
(NA)
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
April
Mav
June
July
August
September
October
November
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by jj); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21, 22, and 38.
JANUARY 1971
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
Qj FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
....
Formation of Business
Enterprises
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
. . .
. ._
. . .
New 'nvestmer|t Commitments
*12. Index of net 13. Number of new *6. Value of
business formation business incorpora- manufacturers'
new orders,
tions
durable goods
industries
(1957-59=100)
(Number)
(Bil. dol.)
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value *
(1957-59=100)
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil. dol.)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1
(Bil. dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, producers' capital
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
2
( )
1969
January
February
March
125.2
H> 125.8
123.2
20,578
22.199
21,353
29.94
30 20
29 95
204
r8 61
PD5
182
7 #£
r7 6/
April
May
June
123.8
123.1
123.6
23,220
23,185
23,528
30.86
30 50
29.56
183
210
186
8 21
8 in
r7 Al
July
August
September .
124.6
124.2
123.1
23,554
22,967
23,138
31.06
31.46
H) 31.99
180
216
173
r7 77
r7 61
r8 37
7 7*5
October
November
December
123.2
121.7
122.3
(H> 24,046
23,308
22,137
31.44
31.05
30.21
195
178
0) 218
r7.89
r7.88
8 38
7.59
1970
January . . .
February
March
121.9
121.7
117.1
22,072
23,249
21,091
29.05
29.37
28,86
205
215
205
fu\ 8.86
8.58
7.61
6 58
6 63
6 00
April
May
June
116.0
113.9
112.8
21,876
22,401
22,276
28.45
29.98
30.03
203
170
186
8.17
7.57
r7.64
6 51
A qr\
112.7
111.8
22,264
22,078
p23,126
31.40
30.54
29.86
180
212
183
r7.87
r7.77
r8.02
pf7-.02
6.41
6.30
6.76
21,409
23,392
(NA)
28.50
r29.01
P30.09
179
202
205
r7.29
r8.!8
P7.37
(NA)
6.55
r6.87
p6.22
July
August
September
October
November
December
1971
rpl!2.8
rill. 4
pill. 7
(NA)
A 31
f.
rq
ooj
A 77
A
IO
7 n^
[jj\
rj
rjS
f. CO
DO^
A /A
6 40
A PQ
fu\ 7 OQ
6 35
6 74
A
£/
A
£/
5 98
6 28
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23, 24, and 36.
-'•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company,, F. W. Dodge Division (series 8), or The Conference Board (series 11).
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
72
JANUARY 1971
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
0 FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
....
Minor Economic
Process.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
New Investment Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment Commitments
Investment Expenditures
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings 1
Year
and
month
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)
28. New private
housing units
started, total
(Ann. rate, thous.)
2
( )
H> 94.4.3
1969
January
February ...
March
.
69.98
63.50
*29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized by
local building
permits
(1957-59=100)
Revised
96. Manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil.dol.)
ing1
(Bil. dol.)
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
2
1,639
1,588
123.2
121.3
118.3
84.25
84.60
15705
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufactur-
84.91
Apri 1
May
June
65. 82
85.60
80.37
1,505
1,533
1,507
118.2
111.3
112.5
85.91
July
August
September
73.70
71.96
68.90
1,429
1,376
1,481
107.8
110.7
104,3
[H>86.82
86.74
October
November
December
79.96
64.31
86.89
1,390
1,280
1,402
101.3
101.4
98.2
86.56
86.60
86.21
88.86
80.95
67.11
1,059
1,306
1,392
87.8
93,4
90.7
85.32
84.42
83.52
April
May
June
64.00
58.19
r54.47
1,224
1,242
1,393
98.4
109.4
107,3
82.34
July
August
September
r70.45
r6l.04
r60.l6
1,603
1,425
1,509
109,4
115.2
116.1
October
November
December
r51.71
r54.00
57.77
rl,583
rl,688
H> pl,987
127.1
124.4
86.70
85.97
86.81
72.52
89.62
90.88
90.19
21.54
89.12
73.94
90.29
91.75
22.83
92.11
...
94-22
H>97.98
77.84
94-81
93.31
H>23.85
...
92.06
...
23.53
78.22
...
22.85
80.22
...
p22.65
H)81.88
...
96.67
96.67
95.68
...
a8l.72
r93.27
P93.81
77.84
23. 4B
1970
January
February
March .
E>pL45.1
81.82
81.22
93.61
91.83
81.30
80.56
79.56
78.69
178.88
P79.05
96.37
94.30
96.78
94.15
(NA)
(NA)
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
a8l.40
. . .
...
a82.20
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by jj>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E>.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 24, 25, 36, and 39.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division (series 9), or The Conference Board (series 97).
2See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
ItCII
JANUARY 1971
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
HJ INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS
LEADING INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
Inventories
....
Minor Economic
Process
245. Change in *31. Change in 37. Purchased
materials, com
business
book value of
mfg. and trade panies reportinventories1
ing higher
inventories,
inventories1
total x
(Percent
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil.dol.)
reporting)
Year
and
month
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Production
materials, companies reportini
commitments 6C
days or longer®1
(Percent
reporting)
32, Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries® 1
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1
(Bil. dol.)
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
(Bil. dol.)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods,
book value
(Bil.dol.)
1969
+6.3
+15.7
+13.6
43
47
49
+0.3
+0.1
+3.2
57
58
63
62
61
61
+0.58
+0.36
+12.3
+10.6
+11.6
49
51
49
+1.3
+1.6
-1.0
65
64
66
68
69
70
+1.00
+13.0
+13.2
+13.3
50
51
50
66
68
66
+0.85
+1.5
59
63
65
+17.9
+5.2
+13.8
54
57
48
+3.3
+1.0
+2.9
63
65
65
65
62
64
+0.04
+1.6
-2.6
+11.3
+6.1
50
50
51
-4.3
+5.5
+1.4
61
62
56
+3.1
+10.9
-3.9
+7.7
45
40
46
-1.4
-1.8
-0.2
+5.5
+15.1
+8.7
+8.1
46
43
48
r+3.8
p+6.2
46
48
42
January
February
March
+7.4
April
May
June
+7.9
July
August
September
+11.3
October
November
December
+7.2
153.23
154.54
155.67
29.14
29.42
29.67
156.70
157.58
158.55
29.98
30.31
30.45
159.63
160.73
161.84
30.66
30.90
31.06
-0.39
163.33
163.76
164.92
31.24
31.52
31.64
56
58
50
-0.88
-0.90
-0.90
164.70
165.64
166.15
32.48
32.15
32.33
60
57
55
52
72
69
-1.18
-0.51
-0.60
167.06
166.73
167.38
32.97
32.95
33.09
-0.3
+1.9
+0.6
52
50
52
50
45
45
+0.08
168.64
169.36
170.04
33.36
33.56
33.70
+3.6
+3.6
(NA)
54
54
52
38
36
36
iT70 35
(H>pl70.87
34 18
[H>34.38
0.0
0.0
+0.31
+0.79
-0.74
-0.08
+0.07
-0.24
1970
January
February
March
April .
May
June
. .
July
August
September
... .
October
November
December
P+4.1
(NA)
-0.74
-1.00
-0.87
r+0.19
p+0.16
(NA)
(NA)
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by |H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26, 27, 37, and 39.
•'•Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are: Series 245, +19.9 reached in 4th quarter 1966; Series 31, +20.8 in
June 1966; Series 37, 63 in Nov. 1964; Series 20, +5.9 in Aug. 1966; Series 26, 75 in Oct. 1966; Series 32, 86 in Mar. 1966;
Series 25, +1.90 in Mar. 1966.
74
JANUARY 1971
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
Qj PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices Stock Prices
*23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices©I
Year
and
month
Profits and Profit Margins
*19. Index of *16. Corpostock prices, rate profits
500 common after taxes
stocks® 1
(1957-59-100) (1941-43-10)
22. Ratio of
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
(Ann. rate, indus. !
(Percent)
bil. dol.)
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all mfg
corp. i
(Cents)
*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg. 1
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, indus
commod. ®
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods ®
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per unil
of gross prod.
(1958 dol.),
nonfin. corp.
(1957-59=100) (1957-59-100 (1957-59=100)
(Dollars)
*62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.
(1957-59=100)
1969
98.8
99.9
99.6
110.9
111.4
112.0
111.3
111.7
99.4
99.7
99.8
112.1
112.2
112.2
112.4
4.9
9-9
4.8
99.8
99.0
98.9
112.4
112.8
113.2
47.1
9.7
4.5
98.5
98.0
97.1
90.31
87.16
88.65
44.6
9.0
4.1
118.7
118.0
115.3
85.95
76.06
75.59
43.9
9.0
July
August .
September
112.8
111.6
rllO.9
75.72
77.92
82.58
45.4
9.1
October
November
December
109.9
109.3
106.8
84.37
84.28
90.05
(NA)
January
February
March. .
103.4
106.3
106.9
102.04
101.46
99.30
49.5
April
May
June
109.3
110.4
E)49.7
111.6
101.26
104.62
99.14
July
August
September
112.4
115.0
117.4
94.71
94-18
94.51
47.9
October
November
December
115.6
115.6
117.2
95.52
96.21
91.11
January
February
March
119.4
120.0
119.2
Apri 1
May
June
10.7
10.5
0.745
112.6
111.8
112.7
0.755
113.1
113.1
113.4
113.5
113.6
113.9
0.767
113.7
114.7
115.2
113.8
114.2
114.6
114.6
114.9
115.3
0.783
116.4
117.3
118.7
97.6
98.2
98.0
115.1
115.5
115.8
116.1
116.4
116.6
0.799
119.0
118.5
119.0
4.2
98.5
97.9
97.9
116.2
116.6
116.7
116.9
117.1
117.4
0.802
118.7
119.6
119.9
4.1
98.3
98.1
4
95.9
116.9
117.1
117.4
118.0
118.0
118.2
[R)0.811
120.0
120.3
4
123.2
r96.6
96.7
P94-9
118.3
118.3
[H>118.7
118.6
118.7
JH>118.7
5.0
112.2
112.8
113.2
1970
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
r!22.8
r!22.7
[H)pl25.1
1971
2105.6
January . .
February
March.
April
May
June
3
94. 28
....
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by g>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
(H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28, 29, 37, and 39.
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are: Series 23, 123.5 reached in Mar. 1966; Series 19, 106.48 in Dec.
1968; Series 22, 13.9 in 1st quarter 1966; Series 15, 5.8 in 1st quarter 1966; Series 17^105.2 in July 1966. 2Average
for January^, 12, and 19. 3 Average for January 20, 21, and 22. *~This figure may be distorted by factors associated with
the automobile strike and by the occurrence of Labor Day during the week of the employment, earnings, and hours survey.
ltd) JANUARY 1971
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
jj| MONEY AND CREDIT
....
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
(Ann. rate,
percent)
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change in
mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Credit Difficulties
*113. Net change 112. Change in
in consumer
business loans
installment
debt1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
110. Total private borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of bus- rate, 30 days
ness failures® 1 and over, total
installment
loans1
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
1969
January
February
March.
-1.19
+2.09
+0.30
+4.26
+7.27
+4.82
+20.56
+23.66
+19.61
+7.69
+9.58
+7.75
+14.88
+8.88
+7.15
94,192
75.03
89.99
84.12
April
May ..
June
+1.49
+0.60
+0.89
+5.40
+3.58
+4.76
+21.90
+19.38
+22.08
+9.12
+10.15
+9.54
+11.64
+8.14
+10.30
D102,632
118.76
92.60
91.92
July
August
September ...
-7.14
-9.57
-1.21
+4.15
-2.95
+1.18
+17.08
+21.35
+20.62
+7.46
+7.20
+8.38
-2.86
+4.13
+8.76
89,716
112.73
62.83
73.70
October
November
December
-0.60
+0.30
+2.11
+2.37
+1.77
+0.59
+18.97
+19.61
+14-41
+8.03
+7.44
+4-98
+7.69
-1.30
+11.94
81,772
116.44
127.14
96.85
January
February
March
+0.90
-1.51
+11.76
+9.43
-4.09
+12.32
+16.63
+14.53
+12.23
+4.56
+5.02
+2.38
-12.74
+3.49
-3.74
76,700
137.28
139.39
120.02
April
May
June
+14.63
+7.96
+6.74
+9.87
+5.18
+2.29
+13.93
+18.06
+21.23
+3.55
+4.98
+5.29
+1.08
-5.87
+1.19
84,128
131.90
147.89
170.50
B> +20.40
+17.77
+17.79
+5.73
+6.84
+5.67
+22.63
+20.75
+23.40
+5.32
+2.78
+4.31
+5.20
+10.58
D+18.50
p84,!88
251.92
169.59
232.94
+10.85
r+9.10
p+17.79
+1.13
r+2.82
IH-6.18
r+24.47
Pf21.17
(NA)
-0.98
-3.62
(NA)
-1.38
r-3.66
p+0.02
(NA)
144-77
119.84
121.72
1^55
1.59
l.*65
1.70
1.71
1.B1
1970
July
August
September
October
November
December
. .
1.79
1.73
1.81
1.90
1.90
(NA)
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [fl); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31, and 37.
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are: Series 85, +14.03 reached in Feb. 1967; Series 33, +25.51 in
Dec. 1968; Series 113, +11.36 in Oct. 1968; Series 14, 58.65 in Nov. 1968; Series 39, 1.50 in Oct. 1968.
76
JANUARY 1971
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
Minor Economic
Process
1H MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
....
k
Re^v es
93. Free
reserves®
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
LAGGING INDICATORS
nntctanriino
Dpht
Outstanding Debt
Money Market Interest Rates
114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer *72. Commercial
bill rate®
bond yields® bond yields® bond yields® installment
and industrial
loans outstanddebt
ing, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
lnterest Rates On Business
Loan$ and Mortgages
*67. Bank
118. Mortgage
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential ®
loans, 35
cities ®
(Percent)
(Percent)
1969
January
February
March
-480
-596
-701
6.18
6.16
6.08
7.29
7.33
7.76
5.74
5.86
6.05
4.85
4.98
5.26
88,729
89,527
90,173
73,410
74,472
74,748
7.32
-844
(NA)
7.99
8.05
April
May
June
-1,102
-1,064
6.15
6.08
6.49
7.54
7.62
8.04
5.84
5.85
6.05
5.19
5.33
5.76
90,933
91,779
92,574
75,900
76,867
76,909
7.86
8.06
8.06
8.35
July
August
September
-1,074
-946
-831
7.00
7.01
7.13
8.06
8.05
8.36
6.07
6.02
6.32
5.75
6.00
6.26
93,196
93,796
94,494
76,860
77,746
78,254
8.82
8.36
8.36
8.40
October
November
December
-992
-988
-829
7.04
7.19
7.72
8.46
8.94
9.22
6.27
6.52
6.81
6.09
6.30
6.82
95,163
95,783
96,198
78,513
78,537
80,764
8.83
8.48
8.48
8.62
January
February
March
-799
-819
-781
0)7.91
9.00
8.84
9.00
6.86
6.44
6.39
6.65
6.36
6.03
96,578
96,996
97,194
78,506
78,811
78,150
0)8.86
(NA)
0)9.29
9.20
April
May
June
-704
-795
-701
9.09
9.53
0)9.70
6.53
6.94
0)6.99
6.49
0)7.00
6.96
97,490
97,905
98,346
78,126
78,069
78,068
8.49
9.10
9.11
9.16
98,789
99,021
0)99,380
78,535
80,344
0)81,397
8.50
9.11
9.07
9.01
99,298
98,996
(NA)
80,939
r80,557
p80,799
8.07
8.97
8.90
8.40
1970
July
August
September
0) -1,217
-682
-335
October
November
December
-208
r-305
p-77
7.16
6.71
6.48
7.04
6.74
6.50
6.41
6.24
9.09
9.08
9.00
6.57
6.75
6.63
6.53
6.20
6.25
5.93
5.29
4.86
9.14
8.97
8.13
6.59
6.24
5.97
6.39
5.93
5.46
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 39.
KCII JANUARY 1971
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
Q| COMPOSITE INDEXES
Year
and
month
810. Twelve
leaders, reverse trend adjusted^series
1, 5, 6, 10, 12,
16, 17, 19, 23,
29, 31, 113)
811. Twelve
leaders, prior
to trend adjustment (same
components as
in series 810)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
830. Six
laggers (series
44, 61, 62, 67,
813. Marginal
71, 72)
employment adjustments
41, 43, 47, 52,
(series 1,2, 3,
56)
5) 2
820. Five
coinciders, estimated aggregate economic
activity (series
(1967=100)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12, 29)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
815. Inventory 816. Profitinvestment and ability (series
purchasing
16, 17, 19)2
(series 223, 25,
31,37)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
817. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33,2 85,
112, 113)
(1967=100)
1969
January
February
March
114.8
116.4
116.1
107.2
108.3
107.6
115.5
116.. 8
117.6
116.9
118.5
120.0
103.3
101.8
103.4
110.9
111.7
110.0
100.6
103.1
103.0
101.9
102.5
101.9
104.8
105.2
102.8
April
May
June
118.0
118.2
117.5
H) 109.0
108.7
107.7
118.1
119.0
120.2
120.7
122.1
123.9
103.5
103.2
102,4
E>111.7
110.0
109 c 8
104.6
104.5
103.0
102.2
103.1
101.8
105.6
103.8
105.1
117.6
117.5
E>118.5
107.4
106.9
107.4
120.6
121.2
121.2
125.9
128.4
129.1
102.4
101.7
102.1
110.1
109.7
109.9
105.3
105.0
105.7
100.6
99.6
99.5
100.3
101.7
103.2
July
August
September . .
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
118.2
117.4
117.6
106.7
105.6
105.4
121.8
122.1
E)122.2
131.1
130.6
132.2
101.3
100.5
100.9
109.1
108.5
109.1
105.9
105.2
105.1
99.3
98.9
96.8
102.4
101.2
100.2
rll6.2
rll6.5
rll5.0
rl03.7
r!03.7
rl01.9
121.7
121.9
122.0
131.7
131.2
130.5
98.6
97.2
96.4
1-108.0
1-108.4
z-105.6
103.9
105.4
104.8
96.5
95.8
95.9
98.7
98.3
98.2
April
May
June
rl!3.8
rl!4.4
114.9
101.5
rlOO.l
rlOO.3
122.0
121.2
121.4
130.6
130.7
130.7
94-4
94.9
94-8
106.2
rl06.3
rl05.9
104.2
102.4
103.6
95.5
92.8
92.9
99.5
99.5
101.0
July . . . .
August
September
rll6.2
rl!5.4
rll4.9
rl01.5
rlOO.4
r99.6
121.4
121.1
120.5
130.9
132.0
[H)132.7
97.0
95.5
93.0
1-106.7
rl06.4
1-106.7
104.2
102.2
102.4
93.5
94.1
93.5
102.6
101.7
104.2
98.5
r98.8
p99.8
1-118.7
rl!8.1
pl!9.6
r!32.5
r!31.5
P131.1
92.2
r93.1
P95.0
105.8
1-106.7
P107.9
rl01.6
rl02.7
plOO.8
r94.8
94.9
P94.8
98.3
P96.1
(NA)
October...November
December
1971
January
February
March
114.1
rl!4.8
pll6.4
3
3
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by (fl); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 34 and 35.
^-Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
2
Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are as follows: Series 813, 105.4 reached in Mar. 1966; Series 815, 109.3
in Mar. 1966; Series 816, 104.6 in Feb. 1966; Series 817, 106.9 in Dec. 1968.
3
Excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
78
JANUARY 1971
BCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Second
c. First
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent)
416. Adequacy 435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
sentiment
ity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(First quarter
(Percent)
1966=100)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
68.09
66.29
67.77
69.05
100.0
104.0
102.7
103.9
101.2
102.1
105.1
103.1
U5.4
149.6
152.6
156.6
83.8
85.6
87.1
88.6
22
22
21
16
35
35
40
42
95.0
92.4
92.9
92.1
72.52
73.94
77.84
77.84
102.7
104.4
102.8
100.0
101.5
100.3
159.6
162.3
167.4
168.1
90.4
92.2
94.2
95.9
18
19
22
22
43
38
39
41
95.1
91.6
86.4
79.7
78.22
80.22
81.88
a8l.72
102.3
100.5
103.6
103.4
101.7
(NA)
165.9
166.6
170.2
al68.8
97.0
97.7
98.7
a99-9
23
23
20
38
36
33
78.1
75.4
77.1
72.4
a!76.4
al01.5
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
99.5
101.5
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
99.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
a8l.40
a82.20
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reportinga. No change b. Higher
in income
income
(Percent)
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
(Percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new cars
2-quarter moving average
a. Actual
b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly)
d. Anticipated
b.
Actual
c. Anticiless decrease in income
pated
as percent of
(Ann. rate, actual
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
mil. cars)
mil. cars)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
52.9
53.0
50.8
50.7
36.4
35.9
37.3
37.4
10.0
10.5
10.8
11.1
19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7
13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2
5.5
5.8
6.5
5.5
8.1
8.4
8.1
7.7
7.9
8.3
8.2
7.9
7.8
7.6
7.9
8.3
99
92
96
105
52.7
45.6
46.2
48.3
35.4
41.3
39.9
37.3
11.3
12.4
13.0
13.6
16.5
18.1
18.6
17.6
11.3
12.0
13.0
11.6
5.2
6.1
5.6
6.0
7.1
7.1
7.7
(NA)
7.4
7.1
7.4
(NA)
8.0
7.9
7.5
7.8
108
111
101
(NA)
20.1
19-9
18.2
16.7
13.8
12.9
10.9
9.4
6.3
7.0
7.3
7.3
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
7.7
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "rn indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40, 41, and 42.
ltd*
JANUARY
1971
79
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D442. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade x
D440. New orders, manufacturing 3
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
D446. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade1
D444. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade *
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
78
78
79
80
80
83
82
81
70
73
72
74
74
80
78
73
79
82
82
84
82
86
86
84
57
60
58
60
60
60
58
60
81
80
76
72
82
85
83
80
70
74
68
66
78
79
77
76
80
84
78
76
86
83
59
60
58
58
60
60
60
59
66
64
60
(NA)
76
71
74
74
61
56
55
(NA)
70
66
70
66
70
66
64
(NA)
74
73
78
76
54
54
51
58
56
56
54
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
1971
76
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
78
71
55
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Anticipated
Actual
Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
and trade1
Anticipated
Actual
D462, Manufacturing 1
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
68
68
70
70
63
66
67
66
78
80
81
84
76
79
78
78
74
76
78
71
70
70
68
66
68
66
66
84
84
85
85
78
80
80
81
66
61
62
(NA)
62
61
64
58
84
82
82
(NA)
78
78
80
77
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D464. Wholesale trade1
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D466. Retail trade 1
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
74
76
75
76
81
82
82
85
78
82
78
78
92
81
84
86
87
82
80
82
82
75
79
78
80
85
85
86
85
79
80
80
80
91
90
90
89
84
84
84
86
80
80
78
(NA)
79
76
78
75
87
85
86
(NA)
77
80
82
80
86
86
85
(NA)
80
80
81
80
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
60
78
76
80
80
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 43 and 44*
is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,Inc.
80
JANUARY 1971
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries
b. Second
anticipations
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
b. Anticipations
a. Actual
carloadings
c. First
anticipations
(1-Q span)
480. Change in
freight carloadings®
D480. Freight carloadings ©
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(Thous. of cars4-Q span)
1968
First Quarter
Second Quarter. ....
Third Quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
66.7
47.2
66.7
50.0
6l.l
83.3
75.0
88.9
55.6
61.1
66.7
55.6
31.6
68.4
68.4
57.9
73.7
63.2
73.7
68.4
-16
+29
+52
-11
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
83.3
66.7
75.0
a. 7
94-4
83.3
61.1
55.6
58.3
63.9
66.7
58.3
52.6
47.4
42.1
(NA)
78.9
89.5
84.2
84.2
-19
-12
-4
+14
77.8
47.2
58.3
(NA)
69.4
61.1
25.0
44.4
38.9
55.6
66.7
50.0
73.7
47.4
73.7
(NA)
-6
-29
-68
r-119
41.7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 45*
K€l»
JANUARY
1971
81
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
RHj FOREIGN TRADE
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
C1)
1969
January
February
March
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts
(Mil. dol.)
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
512. General imports, total
(1957-59=100)
(Mil. dol.)
C1)
+80
-340
+221
April
May
June
+179
July
August.
September
+104
+191
October
November
December
+141
+154
+20
+26
+270
C1)
2,094
2,313
3,197
1 118
2/2
260
222
P my
p £cq
p Q7£
3,353
3,296
3,211
1,110
1,222
1 211
248
26A
?#3
Q 177
3 276
q -igc
3,168
3,370
3,323
1,215
1 23Q
1,317
2Q1
248
276
3 06/
q T7Q
3 0*5/
1,341
1,312
1,353
265
3 221
3 212
1 006
834
1 3Q1
+233
3,362
3,365
3,238
1970
January .
February
March
r+47
r+370
r+167
r3,297
r3,627
r3,376
1,208
1,561
1,578
232
•a pen
243
247
r3,258
r3,208
April
May
June
r+200
r+331
r+465
r3,448
r3,693
r3,775
1,493
1,175
1,342
266
267
269
r3,247
r3 362
3,310
3,683
r3,600
3,535
1,258
1,357
1,674
288
272
270
r3 2A1
3,364
3,398
3,707
3,463
3,518
rl,384
pi, 360
r225
p239
3 528
3,462
3,320
July
August
September
T»+4/,?
r+236
+137
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
+179
0
+197
(NA)
233
p/y.
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
. .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 46.
^ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
82
JANUARY 1971
IICII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
U.S. balance of payments
522. Official settlements basis
520. Liquidity balance basis
a. Including
allocations of
SDR
(Mil, dol.)
250. Balance on
goods and services, excluding
military grants
b. Excluding
allocations of
SDR
a. Including
allocations of
SDR
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
b. Excluding
allocations of
SDR
(Mil, dol.)
Net capital movements plus
unilateral transfers and errors
and omissions
525. Liquidity
balance basis 1
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
527. Official
settlements
basis2
(Mil, dol.)
530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners3®
(Mil. dol.)
1968
-244
+106
+145
+164
-61
+1,652
+408
-358
455
853
851
340
-699
-747
-706
-176
-516
+799
-443
-698
32,482
32,5U
33,493
33,614
-1,352
-3,801
-2,279
+420
+1,453
+1,315
-582
+514
330
313
656
651
-1,682
-4,114
-2,935
-231
+1,123
+1,002
-1,238
-137
34,930
39,045
r42,655
-3,110
-1,994
p-2,047
832
1,104
pl,021
(NA)
-2,271
-2,338
P-1,659
(NA)
-3,725
-2,881
P-2,851
(NA)
r42,943
r43,347
PU,207
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-1,439
-1,234
P-638
(NA)
-1,656
-1,451
P-855
(NA)
-2,893
-1,777
p-1,830
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
532. Liquid
and certain
npnliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies3©
(Mil. dol.)
534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets 4 ©
(Mil. dol.)
535. Allocations to the
U.S. of
Special
Drawing
Rights
(Mil. dol.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Merchandise, adjusted5
Goods and services
252. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
253. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
536. Exports
537. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Income on investment, military
transactions, other serv., total
540. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
18,407
16,994
17,493
18,574
13,926
14,063
U,634
15,710
11,932
12,685
13,295
12,714
11,477
11,832
12,444
12,374
7,946
8,386
8,878
8,378
7,820
8,132
8,569
8,443
3,986
4,299
4,417
4,336
3,657
3,700
3,875
3,931
16,911
16,006
17,732
17,162
15,758
16,057
16,743
16,964
11,948
14,291
14,565
14,712
11,618
13,978
13,909
7,472
9,585
9,581
9,835
7,576
9,606
9,263
9,390
4,476
4,706
4,984
4,877
4,042
4,372
4,646
4,671
19,511
20,550
p22,360
17,350
16,328
15,527
U,510
U,810
Pl4,903
9,723
9,876
P9,958
(NA)
4,787
4,934
P4,945
(NA)
10,228
10,705
plO,678
(NA)
5,114
5,209
P5,246
(NA)
15,342
15,9U
Pl5,924
(NA)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
217
217
217
216
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available; SDR indicates Special Drawing Rights.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 47, 48, and 49.
2
•"•Series 520 (including allocations of SDR beginning 1st quarter 1970J minus series 250.
Series 522 (including allocations
3
of SDR beginning 1st quarter 1970) minus series 250.
Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
^Reserve position at end of
5
quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts
(exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
BCII
JANUARY 1971
83
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Income on Investment, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Year
and
quarter
Travel
Income on Investments
542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
investments in
ments abroad
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Military transactions
Transportation and other services
546. Sales under 547. Military
545. Payments
544. Receipts
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conabroad
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
548. Receipts
from
549. Payments
for
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1,765
1,990
2,000
1,935
677
732
761
762
433
431
451
460
755
737
787
743
302
344
393
357
1,103
1,112
1,147
1,173
1,486
1,534
1,573
1,584
1,122
1,119
1,180
1,253
2,089
2,150
2,286
2,3U
905
1,071
1,240
1,247
501
520
519
518
820
855
875
840
391
313
458
352
1,198
1,187
1,220
1,245
1,495
1,723
1,721
1,693
1,119
1,259
1,311
1,339
2,499
2,302
p2,407
(NA)
1,343
1,325
pl,292
(NA)
559
575
P578
920
990
pl,025
(NA)
258
432
P341
(NA)
1,178
1,255
pl,214
1,798
1,900
pl,920
(NA)
1,341
1,364
pl,414
(NA)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Year
and
quarter
Direct investments
560. Fpreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil.dol.)
564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
of U.S. securities
of foreign securities
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
251
5
23
41
451
878
1,048
831
839
1,122
1,115
1,312
304
171
327
453
-962
-355
-762
-391
434
228
156
313
246
164
152
270
902
1,015
877
276
1,388
365
396
963
319
539
567
69
-360
-1,327
-1,356
-594
132
-647
457
-520
459
103
p204
(NA)
1,411
1,434
P759
(NA)
297
381
p696
(NA)
133
-66
P576
(NA)
-1,254
-305
p-895
(NA)
-39
-204
p!21
(NA)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 50 and 51.
84
JANUARY
1971
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qjj FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
Defense Indicators
602. Federal
264. National
expenditures, defense purnational income chases
and product
accounts
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
648. New or647. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
+9.5
197.2
187 ".7
78.6
7,578
7,050
6,543
2,307
2,207
1,542
4.12
4.10
3.81
1.93
2.17
2.17
3,468
3,658
2,777
+13*.4
202 [5
189 !l
77! 9
6,520
6,319
6,1/4
1,442
1,304
1,507
3.84
3.89
3.07
1.95
1.83
1.39
2,639
2,673
2,618
July
August
September
^'.3
200.8
192^5
79^8
6,906
6,472
6,394
1,462
1,276
1,807
4.18
4.01
3.45
2.45
1.61
1.44
2,962
3,172
2,748
October
November
December
-MS!!
202.0
195^9
78*.8
7,041
7,091
7,088
1,845
1,974
2,224
4.18
4.45
4.09
1.89
2.35
1.93
3,314
2,659
2,826
-1.7
195 .*9
197.7
79.3
7,045
6,516
6,519
1,913
1,543
1,640
3.65
4.02
3.98
1.90
1.74
1.58
2,908
2,617
3,007
April
May
June
-U.2
196.7
210.9
76>!8
6,643
6,118
6,505
1,485
1,328
1,740
3.42
4.08
3.51
1.38
1.89
1.85
2,549
2,190
2,870
July
August
September
-ll'.S
194.9
206.7
75.8
7,111
6,035
r6,407
1,969
1,218
1,613
4.77
4.06
3.48
3.07
1.85
2.00
2,722
2,896
2,129
October
November
December
(NA)
6,347
7,301
(NA)
1,449
2,227
3.95
r4.08
P3.98
2.12
(NA)
r2.02
p2.06
3,568
r2,866
3,259
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1969
January
February .
March
April
May
June
. . .
1970
January
February
March
P209.5
P74.6
(NA)
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
. ..
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
JANUARY 1971
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q PRICE MOVEMENTS
Consumer price indexes
Year
and
month
783. Commodities less foods
781. All items© 782. Food
(1957-59 -100)
(1957-59 -100)
(1957-59=100)
Wholesale price indexes
784. Services© 750. All commod- 58. Manufacities ©
tured goods®
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
751. Processed
foods and
feeds
752. Farm products
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
1969
January
February
March
124.1
124.6
125.6
122. 1
122.1
122.8
115.4
115.9
116.9
139.0
139.7
140.9
110.7
111.1
111.7
111.3
111.7
112.2
115.9
116.3
117.1
105.1
104.7
106.2
April
May
June
126.4
126,8
127.6
123.6
124.2
125.4
117.2
117.5
118.0
142.0
142.7
143.3
111.9
112.8
113.2
112.4
112.8
113.2
118.5
119.9
120.3
106.1
108.8
109.4
July...
August
September
128.2
128.7
129.3
125.8
126.4
127.1
118.2
118.4
118.8
144-0
145.0
146.0
113.3
113.4
113.6
113.5
113.6
113.9
120.6
121.0
120.6
108.5
109.2
109.3
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
129.8
130.5
131.3
127.2
128.6
130.3
119.4
119.6
120.1
U6.5
147.2
148.3
114-0
114-7
115.1
114.6
114.9
115.3
121.8
122.5
123.1
110.0
112.3
112.6
131.8
132.5
133.2
130.8
131.8
132.0
120.5
120.6
120.9
U9.6
150.7
152.3
116.0
116.4
116.6
116.1
116.4
116.6
125.0
125.2
125.7
112.7
113.4
114.0
April
May
June
134.0
134.6
135.2
132.4
132.9
132.4
121.6
122.3
122.8
153.4
154.1
155.0
116.6
116.8
117.0
116.9
117.1
117.4
126.2
124.6
123.7
111.7
109.3
109.5
July
August
September
135.7
136.0
136.6
132.5
132.4
132.9
123.0
123.2
123.9
155.8
156.7
157.7
117.7
117.2
117.8
118.0
118.0
118.2
125.1
125.6
125.4
111.1
108.5
112.7
October ... . .
November
December
1971
January
February
March
137.4
137.8
(NA)
133.0
132.9
(NA)
124.6
125.1
(NA)
158.5
159.5
(NA)
117.8
117.7
117.8
118.6
118.7
118.7
125.2
125.6
124.1
109.6
107.9
107.7
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54, and 55.
86
JANUARY
1971
B€l»
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
Year
and
quarter
206. Potential level1
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1968
First Quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
693.5
705.4712.6
717.5
689.6
696.4.
703.3
710.2
-3.9
-9.0
-9.3
-7.3
722.1
726.1
717.2
-4-9
-1.8
+0.5
+9.4
1969
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
730.9
729.2
724.3
731.4738.6
723.8
724.9
727.4P721.3
746.4.
754-3
762.3
770.4
1970
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Fourth quarter
+22.6
+29.4
+34.9
P+49.1
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary
"e", estimated: "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
1
Based on a trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th
quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to the 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and
4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to4~tti quarter 1970.
JANUARY 1971
87
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
HI
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments,manufacturers'
durablegoods
industries
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1957-59=100)
1969
January
February
March
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposable personal
income
(Ratio)
855. Ratio,
nonagricultural job openings unfilled
to persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
859. Real
spendable
avg. wkly.
earnings
nonagri.
prod, or
nonsupv.
workers
857. Vacancy rate in
total rental
housing®
(1957*59=100) (1957-59 dol.) (1957-59 dol.)
(Percent)
p84.*5
1.53
1.52
1.53
3.21
3.17
3.20
118.9
118.7
118.5
0.056
0.139
0.140
0.134
134*1
2.51
2.50
2.49
78.37
78.13
78.30
5*0
April
May
June
pail 5
1.53
1.52
1.52
3.20
3.23
3.16
120.0
121.8
122.0
0.053
0.133
0.138
0.139
134*. 0
2.49
2.49
2.49
78.40
78.39
78.34
5*1
July
August
September
p84*2
1.54
1.53
1.53
3.18
3.15
3.08
119.8
120.0
123.1
0.065
0.125
0.122
0.111
134*2
2.50
2.51
2.51
78.22
78.32
78.56
5*6
October
November
December
p8l'.7
1.53
1.55
1.57
3.05
3.09
3.11
124.6
121.1
120.6
0.063
0.111
0.119
0.112
134-3
2.50
2.50
2.50
78.24
78.25
77.83
4*7
p79*8
1.57
1.56
1.58
3.13
3.07
3.08
119.4121.2
122.2
0.067
0.099
0.089
0.080
1333
2.49
2.48
2.48
77.84
77.84
78.09
5*6
p78.0
1.59
1.56
1.56
3.07
2.97
2.95
118.3
115.6
115.5
0.075
0.069
0.063
0.064
134*6
2.48
2.48
2.49
77.61
77.25
77.33
5.0
rp76.2
1.56
1.57
1.57
2.90
2.88
2.81
113.8
113.7
113.9
0.076
Pl36*i
2.49
2.50
2.50
77.71
77.96
77.20
4*9
P72.3
1.60
pi. 63
(NA)
2.87
2.92
rl!3.9
rl!3.6
pill. 3
pO.073
r2.45
2.46
77.05
P76.84
(NA)
4.' 8
1970
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
..
October...November
December
1971
January
February
March
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 57 and 58.
JANUARY
1971
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (21 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
1969
January
February
March
47.6
28.6
97.6
42.9
23.8
26.2
April . .
May
June
38.1
40.5
50.0
35.7
28.6
23.8
33.3
45.2
50.0
61.9
23.8
16.7
July
August
September
.
...
October
November
December
14.3
57.1
81.0
16.7
January
February
March
33.3
26.2
57.1
19.0
28.6
April
May
June
28.6
28.6
54-8
16.7
76.2
19.0
r21.4
9.5
9.5
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
(2)
(2)
r71.4
r47.1
r50.0
65
59
65
r64.3
r48.6
r42.9
53
47
r34.3
r42.9
r22.9
50
29
r41.4
47
29
r65.7
r57.1
r74-3
r60.0
60.0
r44.3
31.4
r47.1
3-quarter span
53
82.9
54-3
r38.6
r65.7
1-quarter span
r77.1
r50.0
r37.1
Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations,
The Conference Board
(17 industries)1
1970
. ...
July
August
September
9.5
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
9.5
9.5
4.8
pl6.7
r37.1
r51.4
r40.0
r54.3
r62.9
51.4
54.3
34.3
62.9
r?6.2
28.6
r57.1
r60.0
P48.6
p69.0
40.0
51.4
...
40.0
42.9
47.1
53
r57.1
P47
P47
(NA)
P58.6
(NA)
.. .
....
....
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed
on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised;
V, preliminary; and "NA", not available,
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
BCII
JANUARY 1971
89
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con.
D34. Profits,
manufacturing,
FNCB (about ltOOO
corporations)
Year
and
month
1-quarter span
1969
January .
February
March
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (75 industries) © 1
1-month span
9-month span
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
53
12.0
43.3
13.3
73.3
40.0
14.7
53.8
61.5
46.2
84.6
80.8
76.9
72.3
38.3
55.3
70.2
46.8
40.4
April . . .
May
June
53
54.0
74.7
1.3
12.0
6.7
21.3
65.4
57.7
76.9
69.2
76.9
92.3
48.9
57.4
23.4
58.5
34.0
25.5
July .
August
September
50
4.0
34-7
61.3
25.3
21.3
20.0
61.5
7^.9
57.7
76.9
76.9
69.2
51.1
59.6
38.3
28.7
24.5
8.5
October
November
December
50
72.7
68.0
4.0
14.7
25.3
31.5
46.2
50.0
50.0
69.2
69.2
76.9
45.7
31.9
57.4
6.4
12.8
12.8
52
43.3
23.3
82.7
5.5
5.6
5.6
50.0
30.8
57.7
61.5
42.3
38.5
31.9
25.5
44-7
4-3
2.1
11.7
44
16.4
2.7
47.9
6.9
25.0
27.8
61.5
53.8
19.2
34-6
34.6
38.5
25.5
63.8
42.6
6.4
12.8
2.1
54
41.7
77.8
96.5
31.9
46.5
46.2
42.3
46.2
19.2
15.4
2
15.4
59.6
42.6
31.9
12.8
25.5
(NA)
72.2
48.6
98.6
1970
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August. .
September
...
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
30.8
42.3
19.2
53.2
57.4
70.2
2
42.3
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes
are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is ad justed only for The index. Table E4 fdentifies the components for most of the indexes
shown. The V1 indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§).
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Based on 75 components through March 1970, on 73 components through May 1970, and on 72 components thereafter.
2
Average for January 5, 12, and 19.
90
JANUARY
1971
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
R DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year
and
month
D41. Number of employees on
nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)®
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1 -month span
6-month span
1-month span
9-month span
1969
January
February
March
91.7
71.7
73.3
86.7
76.7
73.3
54.2
62.5
91.7
83.3
70.8
77.1
68.2
72.7
75.0
81.8
79.5
84.1
69.6
60.9
21.7
73.9
82.6
71.7
April
May
June
51.7
56.7
63.3
75.0
68.3
58.3
45.8
66.7
70.8
75.0
72.9
62.5
84.1
79.5
84.1
90.9
90.9
88.6
73.9
41.3
54.3
67.4
65.2
56.5
July
August
September
51.7
55.0
48.3
53.3
50.0
50.0
45.8
54-2'
37.5
45.8
56.2
41.7
77.3
68.2
77.3
86.4
86.4
81.8
45.7
50.0
30.4
50.0
52.2
56.5
October
November
December
50.0
45.0
63.3
43.3
46.7
43.3
43.8
62.5
45.8
33.3
41.7
33.3
68.2
84.1
72.7
81.8
81.8
72.7
63.0
34.8
60.9
73.9
65.2
87.0
1970
January
February
March
45.0
41.7
45.0
33.3
35.0
31.7
37.5
52.1
45.8
56.2
33.3
25.0
86.4
77.3
72.7
79.5
77.3
75.0
60.9
58.7
50.0
78.3
82.6
82.6
April
May
June . . .
25.0
.21.7
26.7
21.7
16.7
16.7
56.2
25.0
54.2
37.5
r29.2
r20.8
68.2
70.5
56.8
77.3
84.1
86.4
82.6
54-3
39.1
91.3
82.6
82.6
July
August
September
35.0
23.3
58.3
20.0
r20.0
pl6.7
54.2
r50.0
25.0
rl2.5
r22.9
P43.8
61.4
70.5
77.3
75.0
81.8
77.3
56.5
65.2
50.0
p82.6
(NA)
October
November
December
r33.3
r35.0
P55.0
r41.7
r58.3
P56.2
75.0
61.4
56.8
r67.4
P52.2
(NA)
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
...
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes
are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed in the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used
except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown, The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not
available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.
ltd)
JANUARY 1971
91
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1970
Diffusion index components
May
July
June
August
September
October
November
December P
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING x
(Average weekly hours)
- 39.8
(29)
o
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
+
+
-
40.8
39.7
38.8
41.3
40.2
40.6
41.1
39.7
40.3
40.1
38.7
+
+
+
o
+
+
-
41.1
39.5
41.6
40.2
38.6
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
+ 40.7
- 37.1
- 39.8
- 35.1
- 41.8
37.7
+ 41.5
+ 42.5
- 40.0
+ 37.7
+
+
+
-
40.3
37.4
40.0
35.2
41.6
o
o
+
+
-
37.7
41.5
42.6
40.4
37.6
All manufacturing industries
39.8
-f-
40.6
39.6
38.9
41.1
40.4
40.9
40.1
-
(76)
(55)
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
40.3
39.8
39.9
41.2
40.7
41.3
41.1
40.4
+
+
40.3
39.1
+
+
+
+
+
o
o
+
o
40.2
37.9
40.3
35.5
41.7
37.9
41.5
42.6
40.8
37.6
a. 2
39.8
(19)
- 39.3
(10)
+ 39.4
(76)
+
+ 29,977
+ 30,028 +
(63)
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans barrels and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment.
Construction, mining* and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
+
4,874
2,234
(51)
+
+
4,932
2,302 +
31,399
(54)
4,894
2,387
(57)
+ 39.7
(69)
+
o
_
-
40.4
39.8
39.0
41.0
40.4
40.6
40.9
39.9
40.7
40.0
38.6
+
_
39.7
39.6
38.3
40.9
40.9
39.8
40.1
39.2
39.8
39.4
38.1
+
40.1
- 1-39.2
+ r39.2
+
41.0
- r39.9
+
40.1
+ 40.4
+ 39.7
o 39.8
+ 1-39.8
+ 1-38.3
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
r40.3
r39.8
39.4
r41.0
r39.5
r40.0
r40.6
39.5
39.7
r39.9
r38.6
+
+
o
+
+
+
40.5
40.3
39.4
41.4
39-9
40.6
o
+
+
o
40.6
39.6
40.2
39.5
38.6
+
o
40.7
37.4
39.9
35.1
41.7
-
40.0
36.1
38.8
34.2
41.4
+
+
+
+
+
40.5
r38.1
r39.6
1-34.9
r41.7
+
o
+
o
40.3
r38.7
39.6
r35.4
r41.7
+
+
+
-
40.6
36.5
39.7
35.5
41.5
+
-
37.6
41.3
43.1
40.4
36.8
+
-
37.4
42,0
43.0
40.0
36.5
o
+
+
1-37.4
1-41.3
r43.2
1*39.6
37.0
+
o
+
r37.5
41.3
1-42.9
r39.4
1*37.2
+
o
+
o
-
37.6
41.3
43.1
39.4
37.1
-
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
r39.6
- 30,537
- 29,856
4,842
2,310
...
- 28,504
(63)
(34)
+
2
-
4,709
2,253
+r29,009
-
4,348
1,977
+ 30,088
(60)
(29)
+
r4,544
2,057
(49)
+
4,926
(NA)
+
+
3,509
3,391
+
+
5,468
+ } 480
3,304
+
3,302
3,524
...
(NA)
3,333
+
692
285
...
+
541
+
5,401
5,172
l} 319 l)
+
+
768
277 +
+
+
5,367
5,346
476
If
434
-} 386
714
278
+
727
255
+
+
+
543
+
+
(NA)
, 5,351
, 5,253
:> 464
:> 549
:) (NA)
+
+
+
+
+
+
3,220
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
781
307
708
270
+
+
529
'+
+
542
...
+
+
550
...
523
+
I
+
+
+
+
4-
672
- (NA)
262 + (NA)
+
+
581
-
(NA)
...
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers;: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = fall ing. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available. p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes producers'
capital goods industries that comprise series 24.
are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
2See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
92
JANUARY 1971
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1970
Diffusion index components
May
June
July
September
August
October
November
December
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS-INDUSTRIES1 -Continued
(Millions of dollars)
4,052
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
HniiQphnld annlijinppc
Radio and TV
Communication equipment!
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
:>
™...
+
+
+
+
+
3,721
4,113
3,921
;} 755
1} 715
-} 787
+
901 +
1,223
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
77
°
+}
™ 1}
1,380
+
+
+
6,062
7,026
(NA)
:} (NA)
1,208
+
(NA)
+
r6,310
6,824
+
_
+
...
+
+
-
^03
+
821 +
7,559
...
4,051
3,954
+
'
...
+
+
+
In^trnrnpntQ tntsl
Lumber total
Furniture total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods total
8,076
7,304
+}
+
1,126
+
+
6,830
Motor vehicles and parts total
Complete aircraft"!"
Aircraft parts t
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
nthpr trzin^nftrtjitinn pniiinmpnt
1,453
+
-
3,606
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 - 10)
-
Index of 500 stock prices
76.06
-
Coal bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
+
+
+
_
_
_
_
; -
Chemicals .
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
...
_
_
"~
....
+
+
+
+
+
75.72
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
77.92
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
84.37
-
(72)
(96)
-
+
+
82.58
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
(78)
U2)
+
+
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
75.59
(48)
(3)
Percent rising of73 components^
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
90.05
(99)
(49)
+
...
84.28
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary. r = revised. *Denotes producers'
capital goods industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647. ©See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,"
page ill.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table E3.
3
Based on 73 components in May 1970, and on 72 components thereafter.
BCH
JANUARY 1971
93
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1970
1971
Diffusion index components
June
May
July
August
October
November
December
January
- 109.9
- 109.3
-• 106.8
- 105.6
(3D
- .473
o
.061
- 45.249
- 1.744
.155
.154
.251
o .224
- 1.238
+
.162
+ 15.010
.186
+ .083
.419
o
.061
- 35.000
- 1.668
+ .156
.149
.249
.222
+ 1.286
+
.165
+ 17.137
+
.189
.082
September
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59-100)
-
118.0
-
112.8 -
115.3
111.6 - rlio.9
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zincflb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
+
0
+
o
+
+
+
+
(54)
.652
.074
43.909
1.824
.160
.159
.251
.225
1.435
.167
12.767
.214
.082
(19)
.587
o
.074
+ 45.398
1.726
o
.160
.156
.250
.224
1.410
.159
o 12.767
.204
.080
(46)
+
+
+
+
+
+
.594
.068
43.599
1.669
.161
.155
.252
.223
1.382
.168
12.806
.190
.083
(46)
(42)
.527
.063
+
+
+
o
+
+
-
42.055 +
1.769 H-
+
.254 ' o
.223 +
1.369 .161
o
12.870 o
.194 o
.160
.162
.081
.524
.061
46.315
1.772
.156
.163
.254
.224
1.296
.161
12.780
.194
.076
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims ...
+
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (21)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (10)
Rochester (26)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (22)
Cleveland (9)
Columbus (25).
Detroit (5) ..
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19)
Milwaukee (18)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (16)..
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (17)
313
+
303 +
(43)
(64)
Percent rising of 47 components
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
-f.
+
+
+
+
+
... +
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
... +
...
-I_i_
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
...
+
-
.
+
-
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_i_
+
.}.
+
+
+
+
...
...
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
• ••
-
+
+
+
+
...
-j+
+
_
.148
.247
o
.222
-. 1.244
.159
- 16.932
+
.197
.076
+
+
+
o
o
o
+
-
.393
.048
39.926
1.590
.150
.149
.247
.222
1.179
.159
16.998
.188
.073
3
341
(53)
(32)
(43)
(42)
(19)
.405
™
.055
+ 35.851
- 1.587
~
.155
333
(57)
+
291
(70)
+
+
+
'+
.)-
338
288
265
(60)
(42)
+
...
-
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
Average for January 5, 12, and 19.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank.
94
JANUARY 1971
!!€!»
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1970
Diffusion index components
May
June
July
August
October1*
September
December p
November
1
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
Percent rising of 30 components
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products .
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Servke and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
- 70,839
(22)
- 70,629
141
501
375
506
- 1,037
- 1,060
- 1,340
- 1,294
- 1,317
286
329
- 1,216
+
68
852
- 1,206
551
681
606
o
118
412
284
620
» 3,351
+ 4,478
+ 3,859
- 11,109
+ 3,677
+ 11,572
- 2,768
+ 9,833
137
495
372
505
- 1,034
- 1,057
- 1,321
+ 1,297
- 1,309
280
327
D47.
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components 2
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
- 169.0
(25)
- 70,587
(27)
- 1,214
67
842
+ 1,2U
549
679
603
o
118
+
434
+
286
o
620
- 3,324
+ 4,511
- 3,849
- 11,078
+ 3,679
- 11,532
- 2,689
+ 9,870
- 70,414
(35)
+
+
-
(23)
+ 70,531 - 70,182
(58)
- r70,076
+ 70,364
(35)
(33)
(55)
129
131
491
491 o
372
373
500
499 +
1,033 - 1,031
1,058 + 1,060
1,316 - 1,288
1,289 - 1,266
1,290 - 1,285
278
274
324
323
128
+
495
+
377
+
505
+ 1,047
+ 1,067
- 1,281
- 1,258
+ 1,286
273
322
- 1,193
63
+
839
+ 1,210
+
543
+
680
+
606
115
+
436
276
+
621
- 3,262
- 4,511
+ 3,850
+ 11,111
+ 3,684
+ 11,622
- 2,649
o 9,936
- 1,184
o
63
830
- 1,196
535
676
603
+
116
423
275
o
621
+ 3,278
o 4,509
+ 3,857
+ 11,154
+ 3,696
+ 11,665
+ 2,654
+ 10,064
+ rl,197
+
r64
r828
+ rl,203
+
537
675
r598
o
116
r420
r271
+
626
+ r3,300
- r4,494
- r3,852
- rll,079
+ r3,711
+ rll,695
+ r2,66l
+ rlO,lll
+
- 1,198
+
69
837
- 1,206
540
676
602
117
433
277
+
619
- 3,305
- 4,520
- 3,840
o 11,072
- 3,670
+ 11,521
- 2,659
+ 9,937
- 165.8
- 162.3
- rl6l.6
+ 163.9
- 1,203
o
67
839
+ 1,223
544
+
680
-I605
o
118
+
W*
285
618
- 3,314
+ 4,539
+ 3,856
o 11,077
- 3,676
- 11,514
- 2,668
+ 9,923
o
-
122
495
374
500
1,005
1,002
1,233
1,213
977
267
316
-
118
490
373
r496
r983
r986
rl,217
rl,!8l
r967
r264
r313
+
+
+
+
+
+
116
487
370
497
1,012
1,039
1,229
1,220
1,220
260
324
- 1,195
o
64
+
832
- 1,200
533
+
677
596
+
117
+
422
270
625
+ 3,308
- 4,443
+ 3,859
- 10,968
+ 3,720
+ 11,718
- 2,652
+ 10,151
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59-100)
- 168.8
(54)
+ 169.2
- 168.8
(50)
(54)
(25)
(58)
(42)
(56)
+ 142*.6
- 171.4
+ U&.1
+ 172.3
+ 145!2
+ 172.5
+ 145.6
- 171.9
- 1-142.6
- rl69.2
- 134.4
- 160.7
- 1-129! 3 +
- r!59.1 +
- 187 !l
- 196.3
+ 157.3
- 183.6
185!2
+ 197.7
+ 159.9
+ 187.9
o 185.2
+ 199.1
- 158.1
- 187.0
183!6
+ 199.9
- 156.7
- 183.3
18C)!6
- 194.5
- 139.0
- 181.8
- 176! 1
- 191.9
- 122.0
- 181.3
- 152.6 149*.4
+ 116.1 - 107.6
- 148*.8
+ 110.5
+
+
- i-us!1?
- 108.2
- 148*.3
+ pllO.l
+
+
+
+
15o!l
114-2
rl72! 5
rl87.5
r!22.5
r!8l.8
r!35.1
r!48.8
(NA)
173^8 172." 5 + 172.9 - 171.7 + 173.' 9 + rl74'. 2
174*4 - 163.6 - 162.6 - 162.0 - 159.1 - 157.7 - 156.3 + rl58.8
+
+
+
+
132
163
173
185
142
177
135
150
(NA)
174
156
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
2
KCII
JANUARY 1971
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1970
Diffusion index components
May
July
June
August
September
October
November
December
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
- H7.8 - 145.9 - 145.3 +
•• - 137.7 + 139.0 + 140.9 95.6
+ 104.5
99.3
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
-
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
- 24l'.4 +
- 146.5 +
- 212.2 +
243*2
147.8
227.8
o
243*3
- 145.5
+
244.8
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
-
143^1 117.8 +
140.7
120.7
+
+
+
+
134.2
131.9
+
124.3 +
135.1 -
-
151*8
142.8
+
150*3
143.0
+
+
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
U6.1
140.7
93.6
- r!45.7
- r!39.3
+
94.6
- r!34.4
P146.3
+ I-U5.9 +
- P138.6
+ p97.1
P134
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NO
(NA)
p!58
(NA)
p!52
174*5 - 170.8 + 172*6 + 172*9 - rl66*2 + rl66*3 o pl66.3
154-8 + 155.2 - 154.6 - rl54.3 - r!51.5 - r!50.2 + r!52.4
239*8
147.5
236.9
+ 1*240.8
+ 150.3
- r221.4
-
+ r222.8
r240*2 + P241.3
r!50.1 + P155.6
(NA)
p219.1
+
+
-
141.6
121.8
+ rl42.4
+ 122.9
+ r!39.9
- r!39*6 + pH1.2
(NA)
+ p!24.1
+
141.1 +
126.6 -
P141
(NA)
(NA)
127.5
131.7
+
+
128.5
136.5
+
127.9
140.3
+
128.1 + rl41.5 -
127.2
140.8
+
+
150.9
143.8
+
-
152*3
142.3
-
LU*5
r!40.5
+ rl45.'l
+ rl42.0
+
+
p!53*8
P142.3
p!29
P139
p!50
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
118.7
o
118.7
P224
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries
+
117.1 +
117.4
(70)
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products. . .
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
+
118.0
o
118.0
+
(70)
(61)
(57)
118.2
(77)
121.0
108.3
117.9
118.9
+
o
+
120.2
108.6
117.9
120.2
+
+
+
119.6
108.8
118.1
120.4
+
+
+
-
120.2
108.9
118.5
120.3
+
+
+
+
120.4
109.0
118.7
120.9
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
157.2
117.3
128.3
127.9
- 155.0
+
118.1
+ 130.4
+ 128.2
+
+
+
152.6
119.1
131.2
129.8
+
+
+
151.1
119.4
131.6
130.1
+
+
+
148.4
119.6
133.1
130.6
+
+
+
+
122.9
107.5
109.4
118.2
+
+
+
+
123.1
108.2
109.5
121.0
+
+
123.0
108.6
109.4
121.4
+
+
+
+
123.2
108.8
109.5
121.5
+
+
+
+
o
-
124.1 +
105.8 +
103.8 -
124.8
105.9
102.8
+ 126.6
- 105.8
- 102.6
+
-
126.1 +
106.3 +
102.4 -
89.0
88.0
88.4
(61)
(75)
+
o
+
+
89.5
118.6
119.2
109.2
119.1
121.6
(57)
+
+
-
117.9
109.6
119.5
120.7
+
+
o
117.1
109-9
120.0
120.7
+
+
+
120.1 133.5 +
131.7 +
144.3
119.9
134.0
132.0
+
o
+
120.3
134.0
132.9
124.0
109.4
109.7
121.9
+
+
+
+
124.5
109.5
115.0
122.0
+
+
+
+
125.3
109.8
115.3
122.2
+
+
+
+
126.4
110.1
115.9
122.3
126.2
106.4
102.0
+
-
124.9
106.7
100.9
+
o
124.8
106.9
100.9
+
123.6
107.6
100.0
84.8
84.3
+
120.0
119.5
112.8
+ 101.6 o
+ 105.4 +
- 105.7 +
+ 128.4
112.6
101.6
109.9
106.0
127.9
87.1
H7.5
85.7
+
118.0
+
118.4
o
118.4
+
119.0
+
119.6
+
119.9
+
+
o
-
112.3
100.6
104.2
104.2
127.9
-
112.2
100.5
102.2
104.1
127.3
+
+
+
+
-
112.5
100.9
102.4
105.6
127.1
+
+
+
o
112.3
101.1
103.1
106.3
127.1
+
+
+
112.4
100.9
103.8
106.0
127.3
+
+
o
+
+
113.0
101.4
103.8
106.1
127.9
Hl.l
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
96
JANUARY 1971
110
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1970
Diffusion index components
May
August
July
June
October1*
September
Novemberp
December
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
- 30,502 +
All retail sales
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
o
+
+
(NA)
6,408
2,388
3,247
322
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
575 o
373 +
661
296
575 +
386
650 +
295 +
580 +
380 +
658
324
603
387 +
627 +
304 +
597
398
655
332
+
590
396
676
325
876
318 +
936
281 +
857
452
924 +
292
848 +
443 +
931 +
290
851 +
445
958 o
278 +
856 +
402 +
958
279
861 +
433
953 +
275 +
894
409
975
286
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4,515 427 +
2,217 +
1,090 +
690
4,022
433
2,227
1,116
676
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
+
(52)
613
387
627 +
284. +
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel accessory stores
Shoe stores
4,909
440
2,233
1,040
674
+
+
+
+
6,364
2,341
3,151
307
5,068
415
2,237
1,044
678
+
+
o
+
+
5,113
431
2,237
1,055
693
+
+
+
5,090
432
2,156
1,071
710
+
+
+
+
6,420
2,374
3,231
311
(67)
(NA)
6,349 +
2,347 +
3,154 +
317
6,305 +
2,353 3,185 336
•••
(50)
(65)
30,173
6,299 +
2,299 +
3,247 327
+
+
+
•
- 30,534 -
+
+
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . .
Furniture home furnishings stores
•
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
(56)
(39)
(54)
Percent rising of 23 components
30,518 + 30,729 + 30,781 + 30,885
5,214
438
2,165
1,101
687
o
+
+
+
+
+
6,422 2,386 +
3,259 324
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-)
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
:
falling. Only
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
KUI
JANUARY 1971
97
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month
133. Canada,
781. United
index of consumer
States, index of
consumer prices® prices ®
132. United King- 135. West Germany, 136. France,
dom, index of
index of consumer index of consumer
consumer prices® prices®
prices®
138. Japan, index 137. Italy, index
of consumer
of consumer
prices ©
prices ®
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
1969
January. .
February
March
124
125
126
127
127
128
140
141
142
128
128
129
155
155
156
167
167
169
142
142
143
April
May
June
126
127
128
129
130
131
143
143
144
129
129
129
156
157
158
171
171
171
U3
143
144
July
August
September
128
129
129
131
132
131
142
U3
144
129
129
130
158
159
160
175
175
177
145
145
145
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
130
130
131
132
132
133
145
145
146
130
130
132
161
161
162
176
176
176
146
147
147
132
132
133
133
134
134
147
148
149
132
133
134
163
164
164
179
181
183
148
149
150
April
May
June
134
135
135
135
135
135
151
152
152
134
134
135
165
166
167
184
182
181
150
151
151
July
August
September
136
136
137
135
135
135
153
(NA)
135
134
134
168
168
169
182
183
188
151
152
153
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
137
138
(NA)
135
(NA)
135
136
(NA)
169
(NA)
191
(NA)
155
(NA)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
JANUARY
1971
ItCII
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Year
and
month
47. United
States, index of
industrial production
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
126. France,
index of industrial production
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
128. Japan, in- 121. OECD,1
dex of industrial European countries, index of
production
industrial production
127. Italy, index
of industrial production
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
1969
January
February
March
169
170
171
185
188
191
Ul
142
144
183
181
180
187
189
191
403
410
405
180
181
182
236
232
239
April
May .
June
172
172
174-
188
186
187
143
U3
144
186
188
183
190
195
198
428
430
435
184
185
186
241
236
242
July
August
September
175
174
174
187
183
183
145
U3
U3
188
188
187
190
197
193
446
443
458
187
187
185
243
238
227
October ... .
November
December
173
171
171
186
189
190
U3
146
145
191
186
190
197
207
203
469
466
477
187
189
188
214
212
220
January
February
March
170
170
171
192
195
191
143
rU5
148
197
197
196
205
207
208
476
487
493
193
195
196
248
250
250
April
May .
June
170
169
169
192
190
191
148
142
r!45
199
195
191
207
211
204
504
502
523
196
195
r!93
248
245
243
July
August
September
169
169
166
190
191
191
rl43
r!U4
r!46
196
196
195
206
205
r202
525
519
525
r!95
r!94
194
248
r235
250
October .
November
December
162
rl62
pl64
p!88
(NA)
P148
(NA)
P195
(NA)
p206
(NA)
r522
P517
(NA)
P196
(NA)
p245
(NA)
1970
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
^•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
BCD
JANUARY 1971
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
i
H STOCK PRICES
Year
and
month
19. United States, 143. Canada, index 142. United Kingof stock prices® dom, index of
index of stock
prices, 500 common
stock prices ®
stocks ®
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
146. France, index 145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index 147. Italy, index
of stock prices ® index of stock
of stock prices ® of stock prices ®
prices ®
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
228
230
231
279
282
279
135
133
136
(1957-59=100)
1969
January
February
March.
207
206
201
214
291
113
213
208
282
270
127
137
April
May .
June..
205
212
201
213
224
209
266
253
235
136
IVi
131
233
243
247
293
302
304
152
153
150
July
August
September
192
191
192
199
199
204
227
226
229
128
134
135
238
247
252
300
293
310
146
152
153
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
194
195
185
206
213
225
227
234
144
141
147
262
274
266
324
336
350
162
163
156
183
177
180
216
212
216
246
238
232
155
150
147
255
248
247
367
362
378
157
156
157
April
May
June
174
154
153
210
182
176
228
204
199
142
137
134
245
226
216
376
325
327
162
152
144
July
August
September
154
158
167
174
137
143
203
209
213
138
140
137
212
223
214
329
331
324
140
145
139
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
171
171
182
146
p!43
p!50
227
213
rp213
138
rp!39
rp!37
r211
rp204
p!98
320
319
P303
137
p!30
p!29
p!91
p!54
p2!8
p!52
p208
P315
p!23
214
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 64.
100
JANUARY 1971
ltd)
APPENDIXES
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Change?
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
1
C
i/c
I/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
200.
205
210
215
217.
220.
222
GNP in current dol lars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
National income, current dollars
Personal income current dollars
1.59
JIQ '53-IIQ 70....
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
1.18
|IQ '53-IIQ 70....
.61
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
1.35
IQ '53-IIQ 70. . . . 1.01
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
1.66
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
1.54
.30
.30
.11
.29
.30
.33
.22
1.54
1.07
.60
1.27
.88
1.57
1.51
.19
.28
.18
.23
.33
.21
.15
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.19
.28
.18
.23
.33
.21
.15
7.67
3.63
17.25
6.27
4.93
7.67
13.80
1.30
1.30
1.33
1.30
1.25
1.35
1.25
9.86
6.90
34.50
9.86
6.90
11.50
13.80
7.67
3.63
17.25
6.25
4.93
7.67
13.80
13.80
6.27
6.27
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
Disposable personal income current dollars
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Per capita disposable personal income, current dol. IQ '53-IIQ 70....
Per capita disposable personal income, constant
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
dollars
230. Total personal consumption expenditures, current
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
dol lars
231. Total personal consumption expenditures, constant
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
dollars
1.49
1.07
1.18
.27
.29
.26
1.44
1.00
1.12
.19
.29
.23
1
1
1
.19
.29
.23
13.80
6.27
6.27
1.35
1.35
1.30
69.00
9.86
9.86
.82
.29
.73
.40
1
.40
4.60
1.41
7.67
4.60
1.47
.33
1.43
.23
1
.23
9.86
1.25
69.00
9.86
1.02
.37
.98
.37
1
.37
5.31
1.21
7.67
5.31
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
except automobi les
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
3.05
1.47
2.32
.64
1
.64
2.76
1.19
4.60
2.76
10
IQ
IQ
IQ
70....
70....
70....
70....
2.09
6.00
1.23
1.76
.85
3.62
.44
.20
1.84
4.01
1.19
1.73
.46
.90
.37
.12
1
1
1
1
.46
.90
.37
.12
4.31
2.38
6.27
69.00
1.28
1.25
1.30
1.25
6.90
3.45
34.50
69.00
4.31
2.38
6.27
69.00
IQ f 53-IIQ 70. ...
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
243. Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment . . IQ '53-IIQ 70....
244 Fixed investment, residential structures
IQ '53-MQ 70....
4.56
2.56
2.74
3.13
3.44
2.08
.83
1.65
1.15
1.12
3.37
2.38
2.13
2.67
3.10
.62
.35
.78
.43
.36
1
1
1
1
1
.62
.35
.78
.43
.36
2.56
4.60
2.30
2.88
3.45
1.41
1.33
1.23
1.23
1.33
4.31
6.27
4.06
4.31
6.27
2.56
4.60
2.30
2.88
3.45
252 Exports of goods and services
253 Imports of goods and services
3.79
3.18
1.95
2.22
2.40
1.86
.57
.92
2.63
2.37
1.83
1.91
.91
.79
.31
.48
1
1
1
1
.91
.79
.31
.48
2.76
2.76
5.75
2.88
1.35
1.30
1.28
1.28
5.31
6.27
13.80
4.31
2.76
2.76
5.75
2.88
2.19
'53-IIQ 70....
'53-IIQ 70. . . . 2.35
.83
.44
1.82
2.34
.45
.19
1
1
.45
.19
2.65
23.00
1.23
1.28
4.60
23.00
2.65
23.00
224
225.
226.
227.
236. Personal consumption expend., nondurable goods .
237. Personal consumption 'expenditures, services ....
'53-110
'53-IIQ
'53-IIQ
'53-IIQ
240. Gross private domestic investment, total
241 Total nonresidential fixed investment
IQ
IQ
IQ
262. Federal Gov. purchases of goods and services . . .IQ
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and
IQ
266. State and local gov. purchases, goods and services IQ
'53-IIQ 70....
'53-IIQ 70....
'53-IIQ 70....
'53-IIQ 70....
270
274
280
282
284
286.
Final sales durable goods
Final sales nondurable goods
Compensation of employees
proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adjustment. .
IQ
10
IQ
IQ
IQ
IQ
'53-IIQ
'53-110
'53-IIQ
'53-IIQ
'53-IIQ
'53-IIQ
70....
70....
70....
70....
70....
70- • • •
2.19
1.30
1.68
1.21
.99
4.10
.87
.49
.24
.61
.35
2.10
1.88
1.24
1.64
.97
.91
3.20
.46
.40
.14
.62
.38
.66
1
1
1
1
1
1
.46
.40
.14
.62
.38
.66
3.29
6.27
9.86
2.46
9.86
2.88
1.30
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.35
1.21
7.67
17.25
9.86
5.75
6.27
3.63
3.29
6.27
9.86
2.46
9.86
2.88
288
290
292.
294.
Net interest
Gross saving private and government
Personal saving
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory
valuation adjustment
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
IQ '53-IIQ 70..-.
IQ '53-IIQ 70-...
3.85
4.67
8.87
.89
2.28
6.87
3.81
3.61
4.90
.23
.63
1.40
1
1
2
.23
.63
.50
23.00
3.14
1.53
1.28
1.21
1.30
23.00
6.27
4.06
23.00
3.14
2.34
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
8.98
1.82
5.35
.34
6.25
1.78
.85
.19
1
1
.85
.19
2.16
23.00
1.28
1.30
IQ
ilQ
'IQ
IQ
8.56
4.85
1.48
2.90
4.46
2.79
.30
.97
6.52
3.74
1.46
2.65
.68
.75
.21
.37
1
1
1
1
.68
.75
.21
.37
2.65
2.65
13.80
3.94
1.25
1.21
1.21
1.16
3.14
4.06
13.80
6.09
2.65
2.65
13.80
3.94
.91
'53-IIQ 70....
'53-IIQ 70.... 5.01
'53-IVQ '69 ... 10.29
'53-IIQ 70-... 1.59
'53-IIQ 70.... 1.18
.36
.86
6.50
.30
.30
.79
4.86
6.99
1.54
1.07
.46
.18
.93
.19
.28
1
1
1
1
1
.46
.18
.93
.19
.28
4.06
4.06
2.31
7.67
3.63
1.28
1.30
1.24
1.30
1.30
5.31
5.31
3.94
9.86
6.90
4.06
4.06
2.31
7.67
3.63
1.12
.74
.31
5.63
1.45
2.55
1.81
1.45
4.61
1.77
.44
.41
.21
1.22
.82
1
1
1
2
1
.44
.41
.21
.55
.82
3.40
4.60
6.57
1.95
2.25
1.16
1.35
1.31
1.30
1.13
5.67
5.75
9.20
3.55
3.46
3.40
4.60
6.57
2.37
2.25
3.14
23.00
2.16
23.00
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
11
*16
57
*61.
68.
New capital appropriations manufacturing
Corporate profits after taxes
Final sales
Business expend., new plant and equipment
Labor cost per unit of gross product,
IQ
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing . IQ
IQ
*200 GNP in current dollars
IQ
*205 GNP in 1958 dollars
IQ
'53-IIQ 70....
'53-IIQ 70....
'53-IIQ 70....
'53-IVQ '69 • • .
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
61a. Business expend., new plant and equipment
412 Manufacturers' inventories total book value
430a New car purchases by households
A3R. Index of consumer sentiment
IQ'57-IVQ'69
IQ'57-IIIQ'68
IQ '57-IIIQ '68
IQ '59-IVQ '68
nn 'R7.nin »CQ
..
••
•«
••
..
2.88
2.30
1.51
8.10
2.73
See definitions of measures at end or part 1.
101
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Quarterly series
T
Cl
C
I/C
I/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
252.
253.
264.
530.
532.
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
National defense purchases/
Liquid liabilities to all foreigners
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official agencies
534
536
537
540.
U S official reserve assets
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Investment income, military sales, and other
services, exports
541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures,
-. .
IQ '60-IIQ 70. . . . 3.79
IQ'60-IIQ'70....
3.18
IQ'53-IIQ70....
2.19
2.62
IQ '60-IQ '70 ....
2.40
1.86
.83
1.06
2.63
2.37
1.82
2.09
IQ '60-IQ 70 ....
4.38
2.85
2.84
IQ'6(HQ70....
IQ '60-IQ 70 ....
IQ '60-IQ 70 ....
2.19
4.59
4. 40
1.14
3.39
2.60
IQ '60-IQ 70 ....
3.49
IQ '60-IQ 70 ....
IQ
IQ
IQ
IQ
IQ
542
543.
544
545
546
Income on U S investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S
Payments by U S travelers abroad
Military sales to foreigners
547.
548.
549.
601.
602.
U S military expenditures abroad
IQ '60-IQ 70... .
Receipts from transportation and other services. . . IQ '60-IQ 70....
Payments for transportation and other services . . .IQ '60-IQ 70 ....
Fed. receipts, nat'l. income and productaccts
IQ'53-IIQ70....
Fed. expend., nat'l. income and product accts. . . IQ'53-IIQ70....
.
'60-IQ
'60-IQ
'60-IQ
'60-IQ
'60-IQ
70... •
70....
70 ....
70....
70....
1
1
1
1
.91
.79
.45
.51
2.76
2.76
2.65
2.35
1.35
1.30
1.23
1.29
5.31
6.27
4.60
2.86
2.76
2.76
2.65
2.35
1.00
2
.33
2.11
1.14
3.08
2.60
1.80
2.58
3.16
.63
1.31
.82
1
2
1
.63
.62
.82
2.86
1.74
3.08
1.29
1.38
1.29
3.64
3.64
6.67
2.86
3.55
3.08
2.14
2.60
.82
1
.82
1.90
1.33
8.00
1.90
2.57
1.34
2.07
.65
1
.65
2.50
1.21
6.67
2.50
5.64
4.98
3.32
3.88
18.40
3.72
1.89
1.73
2.58
14.24
3.72
4.77
2.69
2.61
9.02
1.00
.40
.64
.99
1.58
2
1
1
1
2
.40
.40
.64
.99
.68
1.90
5.00
3.08
2.35
1.43
1.18
1.18
1.38
1.21
1.25
3.64
6.67
4.44
3.64
2.22
3.00
5.00
3.08
2.35
2.17
3.56
2.60
3.34
2.53
2.15
2.16
1.69
2.42
.90
.90
2.51
1.98
1.84
2.33
1.90
.86
.85
1.31
.38
.47
1
1
2
1
1
.86
.85
.58
.38
.47
2.11
3.08
1.82
3.63
4.60
1.29
1.25
1.21
1.30
1.25
3.64
13.33
6.67
6.27
6.27
2.11
3.08
2.79
3.63
4.60
8.48
.83
6.81
.39
4.67
.67
1.46
.58
2
1
54
.58
1.47
3.00
1.30
1.21
3.63
6.27
3.24
3.00
.91
.79
.45
.51
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal
IQ'53-IIQ70 ...
IQ'53-IIQ70 .••
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators,
by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted
from Journal of Business, October 1957).
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated
by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with
a QCD greater than "2" are shown as "3".
"CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the
unadjusted series.
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad justed
series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of
the period of QCD. WhenQCDis "3", no T/C ratio is shown for
the QCD period.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
T is the same for the irregular component, obtained
by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an
estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter
spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.),
2-quarter spans (1st quarter-3d quarter, 2d quarter-4th
quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
102
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of
observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and
the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving
average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the
seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter
intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of Cl is
1.47 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average,
reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.30 for I
and 3.63 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has
been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is
3.24 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a
2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series
(2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the
average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR
from 1.47 for CI to 3.24 for the QCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend
movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Unit of
measure
CI
C
1
r/c
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
QCD
2.72
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
IQ'53-IIQ 70... ...do
250 Net exports of goods and services
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods. IQ'53-IIQ'70... ...do
275. Change in bus. inventories, nondurable goods , IQ'53-IIQ 70... ...do
IQ'53-IIQ 70... ...do
7QR finx/prnrnpnt ^iirnln^ nr Hpfirit tnt?il
IQ'53-IIQ'70...
245 Change in business inventories total . .
2.75
1.82
.84
.48
2.34
1.48
1.42
1.17
2.89
1.44
1.59
.61
1.38
.56
2.46
1.14
.78
1.08
2.09
.59
2
1
2
2
1
.53
.78
.52
1.68
1.35
3.63
2.46
1.33
3.83
2.46
1.60
1.53
1.33
2.76
2.72
..89
1.30
2.38
2.12
.59
3.00
1.38
4.06
3.00
2
.48
2.52
1.29
3.32
3.44
1
1
.95
.48
2.56
1.25
5.31
2.56
2.70
1.48
3.65
2.70
2
.53
1.68
1.35
3.63
2.72
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IQ'53-IVQ'68...
Qents
.22
.20
.46
.11
.31
.05
.33
.11
1.14
IQ'53-IIQ 70... Percent ....
IQ'53-IIIQ'68... ...do
IQ'53-IIQ 70 |... Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
2.76
1.82
1.60
IQ'57-IIIQ'68 .. Mil. cars ...
93.26
53.01
56.21
.94
1
.94
2.30
1.35
3.07
2.30
IQ'60-IIQ70...
Mil. dot. o...
226.3
141.8
150.1
.94
1
.94
1.78
1.32
3.15
1.78
IQ '60-IIQ 70...
...do
615.4
409.5
333.0
1.23
2
1.78
1.32
2.41
2.67
Hn
736.5
499.0 ' 4 2 6 . 4
1.17
2
.66
1.86
1.46
2.41
2.35
IQ '60-IIQ 70...
705.9
501.4
352.1
1.42
2
.61
1.86
1.41
2.93
2.50
IQ '60-IIQ 70...
IQ '60-NQ 70...
Foreign direct investments in the U S
IQ '60-HQ 70...
U S direct investments abroad
IQ '60-IIQ 70...
Foreign purchases of U S securities
U S purchases of foreign securities
IQ '60-IIQ 70-..
Government grants and capital transactions,
IQ'60-IIQ70...
net
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net. . .IQ '60-IIQ 70...
600. Fed. balance, jnat'l. income and product accts. IQ'53-IIQ 70...
o o o o o
.30
o
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg, . .
22. Ratio of profits to income originating,
corporate all industries
*67 Bank rates on short-term bus loans©
245 Change in business inventories total
840.8
2
3
3
2
2
.62
1.71
1.46
1.46
1.21
2.56
1.86
2.22
2.00
2.56
2.44
2.11
2.35
.95
.48
1.14
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
480 Change in freight carloadings(u)i
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding
military grants
520. U.S. balance of payments, liquidity balance
1.23
522. U.S. balance of payments, official settlements
IQ '60-IIQ 70
525. Net capital movements plus unilateral
527. Net capital movements plus unilateral
560
561
564
565
570.
o
...do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
580.0
430.0
79.8
65.7
38.0
239.4
87.7
181.1
133.4
190.4
139.0
114.0
105.2
75.2
1.35
1.73
2.17
1.32
1.52
309.8
327.2
243.5
244.4
143.6
163.6
1.70
1.49
2.96
1.55
2.32
4.37
1.53
3.69
C 11 )
C )
1.52
1.41
.67
.45
1.71
1.32
2.73
1.32
1.17
2.73
2
2
.67
.76
1.52
1.46
1.28
2.16
2.35
1.32
2.05
1.82
.67
1
.67
2.38
1.35
4.06
2.38
.42
.49
.93
1
1
1
.42
.49
.93
3.14
1.33
5.31
3.14
2.82
1.41
3.65
2.04
1.36
3.27
2.82
2.04
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
207 GNP gap (potential less actual)
IQ'53-IIQ 70...
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing ...... IQ'53-IIIQ'68..
857 Vacancy rate in total rental housing©
IQ'56-IIQ'68...
...do
Percent
...,do.....
1.72
.26
«Series included in the 1966 NBEB "short list" of 26 indicators,
when QCD is "3".
.69
.16
1.40
.17
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
1
Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure
as the series itself.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
103
B. Current Adjustment Factors
19'H)
Series
4. Nonagricultural placements, all
industries1
5. Average weekly initial claims,'
State unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations
1
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of
sales, mfg.2
33. Net change in mortgage debt held
by financial institutions and life
insurance companies1 3
37. Purchased materials, percent of
companies reporting higher
inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over,
49. Nonagricultural job openings
unfilled
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
112 Change in business loans5
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery.
Apr.
May
92.0
101.0
100.2
114.6
91.9
90.6
77.6
80.6
122.8
93.7
108.6
108.4
98.0
105.1
102.5
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
84.2
81.7
151.4
110.6
June
July
113.7 105.9
103.7
97.7
-356
-85
+73
-2
+251
100.3
100.5
109.3
106.0
105.5
106.4
107.0
+52
103.5
91.8
94.7
82.9
84.5
94.2
109.4
122.0
99.3
99.0
100.4
101.0
99.7
100.4
99.0
99.9
100.5
106.8
105.3
110.0
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
111.1
121.8
110.8
93.5
82.7
84.5
71.0
80.3
99.1
135.2
91.7
93.4
100.2
82.0
103.2
102.9
95.6
-331
103.9
Dec.
Aug.
+148
+89
+33
-140
102.5
92.4
86.7
91.1
97.0
98.5
+228
95.2
109.4
97.7
109.7
115.8
106.3
93.8
79.3
101.9 101.0
98.6
99.7
98.8
99.2
100.9
100.3
100.8
101.5
99.6
99.1
99.4
99.2
100.2
97.4
97.5
100.9
93.7
90.4
95.7
99.8
99.7
102.6
101.7
114.6
104.2
84.8
90.9
616. Defense Department obligations,
total
621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement
94.7
82.8
91.6
94.8
94.0
147.4
98.4
81.6
75.5
87.0
89.6
92.8
199.1
54.4
95.5
144.6
113.1
76.8
90.3
625. Military contract awards in U.S
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB)6 . . .
86.9
-15
86.7
81.7
81.2
+15
97.7
• ••
176.1
103.9
-10
89.8
117.3
106.4
+10
75.9
• ••
95.9
NOTE: These series are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
•'•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
104
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been sea-
See the
sonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
for each series.
and may be used to update the tables below.
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time.
Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©
(indicating unadjusted
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
85.
Mar.
May
Apr.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
PERCENT CHANGE IN TOTAL U.S. MONEY SUPPLY (DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY)
(ANNUAL RATEi PERCENT)
II Q
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1947...
1948...
1949. ..
-3.23
2.19
-2.12
0.0
6.56
-6.36
0.0
8.70
-3.20
1.08
6.48
-2.14
2.16
4.30
-1.07
-2.15
1.07
2.14
-1.08
4.28
1.07
-2.16
4.26
-1.07
-1.08
-1.06
-1.07
0.0
4.25
-3.21
1.08
-2.12
-3.22
2.16
-1.77
-1.08
6.49
-2.14
0.36
3.20
0.71
-1.44
0.36
-2.50
1.08
-1.42
-0.27
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953. ..
1954...
3.24
5.16
3.91
-0.94
1.86
6.46
4.11
4.87
0.94
0.93
4.28
5.12
1.94
5.65
0.93
7.47
2.04
2.91
2.81
-5.57
5.30
4.07
3.87
1.87
10.26
4.22
4.06
4.82
0.0
1.85
5.26
5.06
2.88
0.93
3.70
4.19
5.04
3.83
0.93
3.68
2.09
8.03
6.68
-0.93
1.84
5.21
5.98
2.85
0.93
5.50
2.07
9.92
3.79
0.0
5.48
3.11
6.89
2.83
0.93
1.82
4.66
4.80
3.57
1.88
1.24
5.66
3.39
3.87
1.56
2.18
3.85
6.04
4.46
0.31
3.07
3.46
7.60
3.16
0.62
4.27
4.41
5.46
3.76
1.09
2.69
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
6.35
2.66
0.0
-3.53
5.95
8.12
0.0
-0.88
6.20
3.39
-2.69
1.77
0.88
2.64
5.06
2.69
2.65
0.0
4.40
2.52
6.27
-1.76
0.88
4.38
4.19
-1.78
1.77
-0.88
7.85
1.67
3.57
0.0
0.88
0.0
6.68
0.0
-2.65
0.88
6.07
-4.15
1.78
4.42
-2.63
3.45
-2.50
1.78
0.88
-2.63
5.16
-2.50
-2.66
2.64
-1.76
6.85
-1.67
2.67
2.64
-3.52
1.70
-5.86
3.93
1.48
0.0
1.77
4.80
2.39
0.89
0.0
5.54
2.79
1.78
0.59
-0.29
3. 17
0.01
0.60
2.05
-2.64
4.57
-3.34
2. 18
1.25
-0.73
3.76
1.06
1960...
1961...
1962. ..
1963...
1964...
-1.68
1.69
1.64
5.67
3.91
-4.21
4.23
1.64
3.23
3.11
-2.54
3.37
3.28
3.22
3.88
-0.85
3.36
2.45
3.21
1.55
-4.24
2.51
0.0
4.80
5.41
-0.85
2.51
0.0
3.98
3.85
2.55
0.83
-1.63
4.77
8.44
4.25
3.34
-0.82
1.58
6.86
0.85
2.49
-0.82
1.58
5.30
0.0
4.15
4.09
6.31
4.53
-1.69
4.96
3.26
7.85
4.51
0.85
2.47
4.07
-2.34
1.50
-2.81
3.10
2.19
4.04
3.63
-1.98
2.79
0.82
4.00
3.60
2.55
2.22
-1.09
2.64
6.87
0.28
3.86
3.81
3.94
3.51
-0.63
2.99
1.43
3.66
4.40
1965...
1966...
1967. ..
1968...
1969...
2.24
6.43
-4.19
3.28
4.26
3.73
5.68
14.03
7.19
7.27
2.98
5.66
10.40
7.15
4.82
2.23
8.45
-3.44
5.17
5.40
2.22
-0.70
12.41
13.50
3.58
5.91
0.70
10.92
9.54
4.76
4.41
-4.89
9.46
8.83
4.15
4.40
1.40
7.38
6.89
-2.95
6.57
4.91
6.00
5.60
1.18
8.72
-3.49
5.31
4.34
2.37
3.61
-1.40
4.62
10.50
1.77
7.91
3.50
4.61
8.57
0.59
2.98
5.92
6.75
5.87
5.45
3.45
2.82
6.63
9.40
4.58
5.13
0.47
7.61
7.11
0.79
6.75
-0.46
4.85
7.80
1.58
4.58
2.19
6.46
7.55
3.10
3)18
1970...
1971...
98.
PERCENT CHANGE IN TOTAL U.S. MONEY SUPPLY
(DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY) AND COMMERCIAL BANK TIME DEPOSITS
(ANNUAL RATEt PERCENT)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1947...
1948...
1949. ..
3!i>3
-1.63
3.36
0.0
0.0
5.87
-4.84
0.0
7.51
-2.43
1.63
5.80
-1.62
2.44
4.12
C.O
-0.81
1.64
1.62
-0.81
6.57
1.62
-1.63
5.71
-0.81
-0.81
1.62
-0.81
0.0
4.87
-1.62
0.81
0.0
-2.44
1.63
-0.54
-0.54
5.81
-1.35
1.09
4.64
0.81
-1.08
2. 16
-1.62
0.81
-0.68
0.07
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
2.44
3.92
4.47
1.42
6.49
2.35
5.94
2.13
3.23
3.90
2.96
6.39
6.44
2.33
3.69
3.53
5.60
3.88
4.41
3.52
3.19
3.87
5.13
1.40
3.18
6.17
3.65
2.81
2.38
5.37
5.09
2.80
0.79
8.41
7.24
1.40
2.02
3.16
5.31
3.60
3.49
5.37
2.37
9.07
5.74
2.09
4.68
3.15
6.75
3.57
2.78
2.00
4.05
3.39
4.46
3.31
3.45
5.08
3.36
4.41
2.82
4.34
2.12
6.65
5.33
2.34
4.74
2.89
7.04
4.30
2.79
4.02
3.54
5.11
4.62
2.81
4.14
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958. . .
1959...
5.98
1.30
4.45
-1.24
7.27
0.0
2.53
14.29
-1.31
2.59
4.42
9.83
3.29
3.23
1.89
9.14
4.59
-0.64
3.77
7.86
0.0
3.22
1.25
10.81
3.27
1.29
3.76
4.76
0.0
0.0
3.12
7.71
3.26
5.14
0.62
3.53
1.95
1.28
1.24
4.11
-0.65
3.19
1.24
6.44
2.60
2.55
0.0
2.33
3.98
1.30
3.80
7.63
4.82
2.63
1.94
2.30
9.27
3.44
2.18
2. 14
2.50
5.33
0.57
1.30
2.34
0.83
4.29
-2.09
2.52
1.93
2.36
6.63
1.68
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964. ..
-2.29
5.03
8.40
9.27
7.67
-4.58
10.02
10.94
8.23
7.18
-1.15
5.52
10.33
7.21
5.35
1.15
6.05
7.68
8.13
5.33
-2.30
7.11
3.56
7.12
8.84
2.30
6.52
5.58
7.55
7.46
6.32
5.95
8.58
6.46
5.11
5.89
4.52
6.92
3.38
6.88
5.05
4.21
-2.67
6.86
0.38
6.56
6.67
6.10
4.32
6.00
8.44
8.72
6.99
7.79
6.48
9.46
9.21
8.96
11.43
8.90
3.62
7.15
8.24
6.73
7.60
7.21
7.30
8.66
8.09
8.34
2.17
6.38
7.28
7.81
7.73
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
10.03
7.24
8.73
4.58
-1.19
10.78
6.44
18.05
9.46
2.09
7.39
7.16
12.45
6.79
0.30
6.53
11.99
5.28
3.54
1.49
6.90
6.31
14.02
8.66
0.60
9.29
2.58
13.86
7.32
8.41
3.68
12.33
11.40
9.15
3.67
10.51
11.92
10.66
5.12
10.42
11.80
13.70
-2.92
6.33
11.07
8.51
-1.83
7.62
11.88
0.30
9.61
7.32
7.24
13.27
2.11
9.40
6.95
13.08
6.94
0.40
7.57
6.96
11.05
6.51
0.99
9.41
4.16
11.09
11.71
-5.97
10.61
0.86
7.06
12.07
0.60
9.25
4.73
10.57
9.31
-0.99
1970...
1971...
859. REAL SPENDABLE AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS ON PRIVATE
NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS
(1957-59 DOLLARS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
...
:::
;•;
••;
...
...
...
...
1964...
74.70
75.37
75.40
76.07
76.24
76.29
76.54
76.78
76.62
76.76
76.71
77.30
75.16
76.20
76.65
76.92
76.23
.
.
.
.
.
77.67
78.51
78.21
78.01
78.37
77.98
78.28
77.75
78.71
78.13
78.09
78.44
77.72
78.55
78.30
77.77
78.45
77.65
78.26
78.40
78.36
78.29
77.80
78.55
78.39
78.33
78.58
77.95
78.72
78.34
78.57
78.67
78.34
78.60
78.22
78.72
78.05
78.26
78.76
78.32
78.78
78.39
78.52
79.30
78.56
79.19
78.54
78.05
78.66
78.24
79.09
78.24
78.50
78.24
78.25
79.00
78.19
78.08
78.74
77.83
77.91
78.41
77.89
78.42
78.27
78.15
78.44
77.80
78.51
78.38
78.69
78.37
78.37
78.89
78.37
79.09
78.32
78.21
78.55
78.11
78.46
78.39
78.07
78.59
78.28
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970. .
1971. .
ivised beginning \
JANUARY 1971
105
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
May
June
July
Sept.
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
D23. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES— 13 INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
II Q
IIIQ
Annual
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
38.5
30.8
76.9
30.8
61.5
38.5
53.8
38.5
53.8
61.5
30.8
53.8
7.7
53.8
61.5
30.8
46.2
46.2
30.8
38.5
28.2
64.1
35.9
5&!4
38.5
39.8
61.5
76.9
30.8
61.5
38.5
69.2
53.8
26.9
50.0
84.6
69.2
69.2
38.5
11.5
84.6
69.2
53.8
69.2
61.5
53.8
76.9
19.2
38.5
38.5
53.8
84.6
0.0
61.5
53.8
38.5
92.3
7.7
42.3
26.9
38.5
92.3
7.7
30.8
23.1
65.4
84.6
69.2
38.5
38.5
69.2
69.2
23.1
30.8
69.2
53.8
76.9
61.5
38.5
38.5
50.0
69.2
71.8
26.9
47.4
51.3
71.8
47.4
48.7
37.2
64.1
89.7
5.1
44.9
34.6
47.5
76.9
51.3
35.9
48.7
57.7
76.9
43.9
39.1
42.0
55.1
65.4
42.3
30.8
38.5
38.5
84.6
61.5
23.1
46.2
53.8
46.2
61.5
53.8
46.2
61.5
76.9
42.3
57.7
38.5
61.5
61.5
30.8
38.5
69.2
53.8
69.2
30.8
38.5
53.8
65.4
76.9
46.2
34.6
96.2
38.5
61.5
61.5
30.8
53.8
53.8
46.2
69.2
11.5
42.3
69.2
38.5
38.5
23.1
53.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
7.7
73.1
46.2
57.7
42.3
46.2
38.5
61.5
65.4
55.1
35.9
43.6
51.3
69.2
34.6
44.9
53.8
60.2
61.5
59.0
25.6
64.1
53.8
47.5
42.3
25.7
55.1
51.3
60.9
47.8
33.0
54.2
54.2
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
69.2
38.5
53.8
61.5
53.8
42.3
84.6
46.2
46.2
53.8
38.5
84.6
46.2
50.0
46.2
53.8
76.9
42.3
46.2
65.4
46.2
53.8
42.3
46.2
30.8
46.2
57.7
46.2
69.2
53.8
42.3
38.5
23.1
46.2
46.2
30.8
46.2
30.8
38.5
76.9
38.5
57.7
50.0
69.2
69.2
23.1
34.6
53.8
69.2
73.1
23.1
15.4
53.8
50.0
61.5
15.4
69.2
53.8
57.7
38.5
50.0
69.2
48.7
52.6
51.3
48.7
62.8
43.6
53.9
50.0
37.2
47.5
34.6
51.3
64.1
20.5
39.7
53.8
59.0
57.7
39.1
54.8
45.2
54.2
55.8
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
53.8
61.5
46.2
46.2
53.8
30.8
76.9
53.8
46.2
61.5
69.2
46.2
23.1
53.8
46.2
76.9
30.8
23.1
46.2
65.4
53.8
42.3
61.5
53.8
57.7
57.7
46.2
69.2
50.0
76.9
46.2
61.5
30.8
46.2
61.5
42.3
26.9
53.8
65.4
76.9
50.0
0.0
19.2
57.7
57.7
15.4
19.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
34.6
30.8
46.2
69.2
50.0
61.5
57.7
61.5
38.5
50.0
51.3
61.5
41.0
48.7
53.8
62.8
39.8
51.3
50.0
66.7
46.2
29.5
34.6
56.4
65.4
37.2
35.9
51.3
59.0
48.7
49.4
41,7
44.6
53.5
58.6
1948...
1949...
23.1
38.5
30.8
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
76.9
84.6
23.1
30.8
30.8
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1970...
1971...
D23. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES— 13 INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS
(PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS)
1949...
7.7
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
0.0
7.7
23.1
7.7
46.2
15.4
38.5
23.1
38.5
23.1
30.8
53.8
23.1
53.8
7.7
69.2
7.7
76.9
5.1
33.3
12 '.8
66.6
30.1
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
69.2
100.0
30.8
38.5
53.8
69.2
76.9
30.8
15.4
76.9
84.6
46.2
23.1
15.4
84.6
92.3
30.8
30.8
30.8
69.2
100.0
23.1
30.8
15.4
61.5
100.0
23.1
23.1
30.8
69.2
100.0
23.1
38.5
38.5
61.5
100.0
15.4
38.5
30.8
53.8
100.0
15.4
38.5
23.1
61.5
100.0
15.4
30.8
23.1
53.8
100.0
15.4
46.2
38.5
61.5
100.0
30.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
74.3
74.4
28.2
23.1
71.8
97.4
25.7
28.2
25.7
66.6
100.0
18.0
38.5
30.8
58.9
100.0
20.5
38.5
35.9
58.9
92.9
34.6
33.4
28.9
64.1
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
65.4
46.2
30.8
23.1
69.2
61.5
42.3
34.6
38.5
69.2
69.2
46.2
38.5
53.8
61.5
69.2
46.2
30.8
76.9
69.2
76.9
53.8
23.1
76.9
61.5
76.9
53.8
23.1
76.9
69.2
76.9
53.8
23.1
76.9
61.5
84.6
46.2
15.4
84.6
46.2
84.6
30.8
23.1
69.2
61.5
76.9
38.5
23.1
76.9
53.8
69.2
53.8
23.1
73.1
46.2
53.8
53.8
15.4
61.5
46.2
65.4
44.9
34.6
38.5
66.6
74.3
51.3
25.7
76.9
66.6
82.0
43.6
20.5
76.9
56.4
66.6
48.7
20.5
70.5
48.7
72.1
47.1
25.3
65.7
59.6
1960...
1961...
1962...
46.2
61.5
38.5
61.5
61.5
38.5
53.8
30.8
69.2
69.2
46.2
61.5
30.8
61.5
69.2
30.8
61.5
38.5
69.2
76.9
38.5
76.9
23.1
65.4
76.9
38.5
53.8
15.4
61.5
80.8
30.8
53.8
30.8
61.5
84.6
30.8
53.8
38.5
61.5
76.9
38.5
53.8
38.5
61.5
69.2
38.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
69.2
46.2
53.8
46.2
61.5
76.9
38.5
46.2
61.5
76.9
69.2
43.6
58.9
33.4
64.1
66.6
35.9
64.1
25.7
65.4
78.2
33.4
53.8
35.9
61.5
76.9
41.1
51.3
53.8
64.1
71.8
38.5
57.0
37.2
63.8
73.4
69.2
53.8
0.0
30.8
76.9
61.5
15.4
46.2
61.5
61.5
26.9
46.2
69.2
53.8
30.8
53.8
53.8
30.8
23.1
61.5
53.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
23.1
73.1
23.1
76.9
30.8
57.7
46.2
76.9
46.2
0.0
38.5
92.3
38.5
0.0
30.8
92.3
53.8
0.0
30.8
84.6
69.2
58.9
14.1
41.1
80.8
58.9
33.3
25.7
62.8
79.5
46.2
7.7
33.4
70.5
74.3
46.2
0.0
33.4
89.7
71.8
55.1
25.0
26.6
66.0
76.6
1963. ..
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
D54. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR SALES OF RETAIL STORES— 23 TYPES OF STORES
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1948...
1949...
16^7
56.2
29.2
62.5
37.5
58.3
60.4
37.5
54.2
81.2
25.0
60.4
16.7
52.1
60.4
39.6
89.6
41.7
35.4
37.5
83.3
79.2
43.7
27.8
59.0
46.5
50 .* 7
55.6
52.8
54.1
46.0
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
50.0
91.7
60.4
29.2
52.1
75.0
25.0
47.9
54.2
93.7
62.5
18.7
18.7
66.7
22.9
50.0
31.2
60.4
20.8
43.7
60.4
50.0
66.7
31.2
50.0
79.2
33.3
75.0
39.6
75.0
89.6
58.3
43.7
31.2
56.2
66.7
79.2
58.3
79.2
27.1
12.5
37.5
41.7
35.4
79.2
20.8
70.8
79.2
33.3
75.0
35.4
79.2
33.3
50.0
60*4
91.7
37.5
79.2
45.8
64.6
62.5
45.1
42.3
50.0
56.2
63.2
38.2
67.4
30.5
56.2
56.3
58.3
47.9
48.6
54.2
49.3
62.5
63.9
43.0
66.7
57.8
51.0
55.4
43.0
58.3
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
72.9
62.5
37.5
50.0
58.3
43.7
37.5
95.8
31.2
70.8
60.4
85.4
31.2
35.4
60.4
91.7
27.1
45.8
77.1
43.7
43.7
81.2
52.1
52.1
64.6
29.2
70.8
93.7
29.2
68.7
85.4
31.2
81.2
91.7
41.7
50.0
77.1
66.7
62.5
43.7
75.0
70.8
27.1
45.8
70.8
83.3
54.2
45.8
75.0
41.7
47.9
77.1
37.5
58.3
56.2
39.6
50.0
58.3
79.2
52.1
59.0
61.8
*4.8
38.9
63.2
54.9
59.7
63.9
52.8
59.0
70.1
59.7
58.3
66.7
52.1
56.9
60.4
47.2
70.8
50.0
60.2
60.4
56.1
57.3
56.1
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
47.9
58.3
58.3
50.0
43.8
43.7
41.7
50.0
54.2
70.8
45.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
89.6
22.9
68.7
41.7
52.1
4.2
79.2
58.3
52.1
66.7
66.7
77.1
18.7
75.0
66.7
45.8
60.4
83.3
66.7
39.1
45.8
68.7
75.0
64.6
71.7
45.8
39.6
64.6
25.0
34.8
79.2
83.3
39.6
58.3
78.3
22.9
87.5
87.5
54.2
56.5
37.5
60.4
66.7
77.1
60.9
45.8
53.5
59.7
52.1
55.6
53.5
59.7
48.6
56.3
61.8
45.8
56.2
74.3
52.1
48.5
46.5
77.1
64.6
63.2
65.2
47.9
61.6
61.8
55.9
57.8
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
63.0
76.1
87.0
73.9
69.6
65.2
65.2
39.1
65.2
60.9
30.4
60.9
43.5
82.6
21.7
54.3
43.5
60.9
26.1
73.9
87.0
30.4
34.8
60.9
41.3
43.5
95.7
82.6
65.2
54.3
80.4
47.8
43.5
63.0
45.7
47.8
47.8
60.9
58.7
50.0
73.9
60.9
76.1
30.4
30.4
78.3
43.5
37.0
52.2
63.0
78.3
69.6
67.4
54.3
34.8
37.0
41.3
47.8
26.1
60.9
52.9
67.4
56.5
73.9
50.7
61.6
56.5
59.4
50.7
56.5
67.4
52.2
60.2
50.7
42.0
64.5
51.5
50.7
44.2
52.9
61.6
56.9
56.7
54.9
50.5
60*4
-
1970...
1971...
JANUARY 1971
106
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
D54. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR SALES OF RETAIL STORES— 23 TYPES OF STORES
(PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS)
64.6
27.1
62.5
47.9
33.3
43.7
100.0
54.2
66.7
31.2
62.5
97.9
37.5
79.2
37.5
75.0
68.7
56.2
72.9
29.2
52.1
91.7
62.5
87.5
29.2
77.1
100.0
85.4
70.8
33.3
79.2
100.0
79.2
83.3
45.8
91.7
91.7
77.1
72.9
43.7
83.3
85.4
79.2
75.0
79.2
89.6
91.7
83.3
62.5
70.8
87.5
87.5
87.5
62.5
64.6
83.3
89.6
91.7
47.9
87.5
70.8
83.3
87.5
66.7
93.7
75.0
72.9
83.3
70.8
79.2
79.2
77.1
91.7
43.7
91.7
62.5
52.1
62.5
91.7
85.4
85.4
41.7
68.7
89.6
77.1
83.3
43.7
79.2
89.6
60.4
83.3
52.1
85.4
72.9
52.1
83.3
43.7
87.5
95.8
62.5
73.9
43.7
87.5
95.8
87.5
78.3
22.9
95.8
87.5
70.8
73.9
87.0
87.0
73.9
87.0
87.0
95.7
91.3
91.3
91.3
82.6
95.7
91.3
71.7
87.0
87.0
67.4
91.3
91.3
65.2
56.5
87.0
56.5
82.6
78.3
50.0
78.3
47.8
52.2
95.7
82.6
62.6
78.3
56.5
20.8
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
95.8
45.8
87.5
70.8
37.5
85.4
58.3
95.8
70.8
52.1
97.9
66.7
75.0
58.3
64.6
100.0
83.3
70.8
54.2
58.3
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
95.8
79.2
62.5
41.7
91.7
97.9
87.5
75.0
47.9
95.8
95.8
62.5
75.0
66.7
97.9
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
52.1
41.7
87.5
70.8
79.2
52.1
58.3
91.7
79.2
100.0
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
80.4
69.6
82.6
73.9
14.6
12.5
12.5
12.5
Annual
Ml Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
66.7
25.0
1949...
II Q
16.0
16.7
53.5
39.6
34.0
64.6
34.2
47.9
83.3
56.2
50.0
93.7
93.0
56.9
86.1
66.6
51.4
99.3
58.3
72.2
41.0
65.3
86.8
68.0
77.1
30.6
69.5
79.9
79.9
70.8
46.5
89.6
89.8
65.8
76.6
46.2
68.9
87.5
66.7
33.3
91.7
58.3
66.7
79.2
37.5
89.6
75.0
96.5
76.4
70.8
52.1
95.1
88.2
83.3
66.7
71.5
86.8
81.9
87.5
61.8
86.8
75.0
77.1
79.2
38.2
91.0
65.3
85.9
81.6
59.4
75.4
80.6
54.2
91.7
87.5
91.7
76.1
45.8
87.5
91.7
83.3
54.3
43.7
89.6
83.3
77.1
78.3
52.1
54.2
90.3
78.5
88.2
45.8
77.8
84.0
63.2
83.3
36.8
90.3
93.0
73.6
75.4
47.9
89.6
87.5
84.0
69.6
45.6
78.0
88.7
74.8
79.1
95.7
87.0
95.7
82.6
73.9
95.7
78.3
95.7
65.2
65.2
91.3
82.6
73.9
65.2
87.0
84.8
81.9
85.5
88.4
76.1
82.6
79.7
78.3
88.4
63.0
94.2
74.6
81.2
68.1
52.9
94.2
82.6
88.4
71.0
75.4
89.0
79.7
83.4
79.0
66.8
39.6
54.2
29.2
52,1
33.3
87.5
1970...
1971...
D58. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICESt MANUFACTURED GOODS— 22 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES ®
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
1948...
1949...
3U8
70.5
29.5
61.4
25.0
68.2
6.8
61.4
9.1
75.0
13.6
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
90.9
22.7
75.0
43.2
70.5
56.8
70.5
45.5
50.0
59.1
43.2
54.5
28.8
68.2
9.8
78\Q
40.9
54.6
53.0
33!l
100.0
38.6
59.1
59.1
65.9
90.9
45.5
36.4
47.7
59.1
95.5
43.2
40.9
52.3
61.4
100.0
34.1
47.7
45.5
61.4
59.1
75.8
28.8
61.4
38.6
67.4
28.0
28.0
67.4
43.9
97.7
36.3
55.3
62.1
64.4
95.5
40.9
41.7
48.5
60.6
79.9
45.3
38.5
59.9
51.9
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
56.8
100.0
20.5
65.9
47.7
70.5
86.4
45.5
56.8
25.0
50.0
40.9
20.5
61.4
43.2
61,4
31.8
18.2
63.6
40.9
61.4
27.3
38.6
70.5
43.2
79.5
25.0
27.3
68.2
47.7
93.2
40.9
52.3
68.2
59.1
100.0
29.5
54,5
59.1
68.2
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
72.7
72.7
72.7
47.7
75.0
50.0
81.8
50.0
34.1
79.5
56.8
70.5
52.3
31.8
72.7
68.2
72.7
61.4
43.2
61.4
54.5
40.9
59.1
36.4
68.2
70.5
50.0
59.1
68.2
63.6
79.5
68.2
65.9
50.0
59.1
75.0
68.2
65.9
56.8
61.4
84.1
70.5
50.0
52.3
65.9
72.7
65.9
40.9
63.6
59.1
77.3
68.2
50.0
52.3
56.8
81.8
72.7
59.1
61.4
50.0
59.8
75.0
58.3
37.9
75.7
64.4
54.5
59.9
49.3
64.4
79.5
69.0
60.6
53.0
62.1
77.3
68.9
50.0
59.1
55.3
70.3
66.9
57.2
49.8
64.4
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
65.9
40.9
65.9
43.2
61.4
36.4
36.4
40.9
36.4
63.6
47.7
45.5
52.3
43.2
56.8
45.5
56.8
43.2
40.9
47.7
25.0
31.8
54.5
63.6
50.0
40.9
50.0
45.5
65.9
56.8
47.7
59.1
40.9
47.7
68.2
43.2
61.4
38.6
63.6
54.5
31.8
61.4
36.4
61.4
52.3
38.6
43.2
40.9
81.8
72.7
29.5
45.5
43.2
68.2
63.6
52.3
54.5
45.5
61.4
56.8
50.0
40.9
53.0
40.9
60.6
37.1
46.2
47.7
56.8
51.5
40.9
60.6
38.6
57.6
58.3
40.1
47.7
43.2
70.5
64.4
42.0
48.9
45.6
56.4
58.7
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
72.7
79.5
77.3
90.9
68.2
52.3
75.0
72.7
84.1
72.7
65.9
72.7
56.8
68.2
75.0
72.7
70.5
47.7
72.7
84.1
75.0
86.4
54.5
63.6
79.5
61.4
75.0
47.7
61.4
84.1
50.0
72.7
63.6
68.2
77.3
56.8
54.5
63.6
70.5
68.2
61.4
47.7
75.0
72.7
77.3
70.5
63.6
72.7
79.5
68.2
70.5
63.6
77.3
79.5
84.1
70.5
54.5
90.9
61.4
72.7
63.6
75.7
68.9
81.1
72.0
69.7
77.3
50.0
65.9
82.6
56.1
58.3
67.4
70.5
74.3
70,5
60.6
80.3
73.5
75.0
65.0
68.0
66.6
72.7
76.0
1970...
1971...
D58. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES* MANUFACTURED GOODS— 22 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES ®
(PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
1949...
29.5
27.3
18.2
77.3
11.4
25.0
78.8
9.9
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
50.0
95.5
15.9
59.1
45.5
63.6
95.5
6.8
59.1
34.1
68.2
81.8
11.4
65.9
43.2
95.5
50.0
15.9
61.4
43.2
100.0
27.3
27.3
63.6
56.8
100.0
29.5
36.4
65.9
59.1
100.0
29.5
40.9
61.4
61.4
100.0
29.5
47.7
54.5
72.7
100.0
36.4
40.9
63.6
77.3
100.0
22.7
52.3
54.5
75.0
100.0
25.0
45.5
52.3
72.7
100.0
18.2
59.1
47.7
63.6
60.6
90.9
11.4
61.4
40.9
98.5
35.6
26.5
63.6
53.0
100.0
31.8
43.2
59.8
70.5
100.0
22.0
52.3
51.5
70.4
89.8
45.1
33.3
59.1
58.7
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
72.7
86.4
68.2
36.4
77.3
59.1
86.4
68.2
29.5
79.5
68.2
86.4
72.7
31.8
79.5
70.5
81.8
72.7
34.1
75.0
84.1
77.3
79.5
45.5
56.8
81.8
75.0
81.8
56.8
72.7
81.8
81.8
75.0
59.1
61.4
81.8
75.0
75.0
59.1
61.4
81.8
81.8
72.7
65.9
59.1
86.4
79.5
59.1
72.7
59.1
81.8
70.5
47.7
70.5
63.6
81.8
68.2
43.2
77.3
61.4
66.7
86.4
69.7
32.6
78.8
78.8
78.0
78.0
45.5
68.2
81.8
79.5
74.2
61.4
60.6
83.3
72.7
50.0
73.5
61.4
77.6
79.2
68.0
53.2
67.2
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
63.6
40.9
56.8
29.5
72.7
40.9
34.1
50.0
40.9
72.7
36.4
38.6
54.5
54.5
63.6
38.6
31.8
45.5
47.7
59.1
34.1
52.3
47.7
52.3
59.1
36.4
52.3
52.3
59.1
59.1
34.1
45.5
47.7
65.9
61*4
29.5
52.3
45.5
79.5
65.9
31i8
50.0
36.4
72.7
70.5
31.8
59.1
29.5
79.5
72.7
31.8
45,5
18.2
72.7
79.5
45.5
54.5
15.9
77.3
86.4
47.0
37.9
53.8
41.6
69.7
36.4
45.5
48.5
53.0
59.1
31.8
49.3
43.2
72.7
65.9
36.4
53.0
21.2
76.5
79.5
37.9
46.4
41.7
61.0
68.6
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
81.8
88.6
63.6
90.9
81.8
86.4
95.5
68.2
95.5
79.5
81.8
93.2
65.9
90.9
84.1
79.5
95.5
63.6
75.0
90.9
70.5
95.5
63.6
84.1
90.9
63.6
86.4
63.6
81.8
88.6
65.9
72.7
72.7
84.1
86.4
65.9
72.7
81.8
81.8
86.4
77.3
63.6
81.8
86.4
81.8
88.6
63.6
81.8
81.8
81.8
90.9
72.7
90.9
81.8
81.8
90.9
72.7
95.5
90.9
72.7
83.3
92.4
65.9
92.4
81.8
71.2
92.5
63.6
80.3
90.1
69.7
69.7
78.8
84.1
B4.9
90.1
69.7
89.4
84.8
78.8
78.6
81.1
74.4
85.4
83.9
77.3
6.8
81.8
11.4
77.3
11.4
72.7
20.5
70.5
47.7
59.1
52.3
47.7
61.4
40.9
61.4
73.5
26.5
49.2
58.4
29.9
1970...
1971...
JANUARY 1971
107
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
IQ
410.
II Q
III Q
MANUFACTURERS' SALES* TOTAL VALUE
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
...
...
...
...
412.
...
...
26.4
33.8
40.2
43.0
43.0
26.8
36.5
40.2
44.0
42.1
28.3
38.3
40.4
44.7
41.4
31.1
39.3
41.1
43.9
41.6
31.1
39.3
41.1
43.9
41.6
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
41.9
46.5
51.7
50.8
50.7
42.6
48.3
52.1
49.6
52.0
43.8
49.5
52.4
49.4
51.8
45.1
50.6
51.9
50.1
52.7
45.1
50.6
51.9
50.1
52.7
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
53.9
53.4
56.1
58.6
60.5
54.4
53.4
57.0
59.2
60.9
54.6
54.0
57.9
59.6
61.6
53.8
54.9
58.2
60.0
63.4
53.8
54.9
58.2
60.0
63.4
1965
1966
1967
64.1
70.0
80.2
83.8
90.4
65.3
72.6
81.1
85.6
92.2
66.8
75.5
81.7
87.1
94.2
68.2
78.2
82.8
88.6
95.9
68.2
78.2
82.8
88.6
95.9
61.5
64.9
72.5
71.2
71.0
223.6
260.6
270.2
298.2
280.3
79.5
83.3
86.1
79.2
94.3
80.2
81.0
86.7
82.3
89.6
81.9
86.5
83.9
85.7
89.3
317.9
94.6
88.5
98.8
101.8
109.3
92.8
91.2
98.8
104.4
111.1
91.8
93.8
99.3
106.3
113.0
90.2
97.2
100.3
107.7
114.7
369.4
370.7
397.2
420.2
119.1
131.4
135.1
145.4
159.6
121.6
134.0
135.7
149.6
162.3
124.4
135.4
137.4
152.6
167.4
127.2
137.2
140.3
156.6
168.1
492.3
538.0
548.5
604.2
657.4
76.3
81.6
88.0
80.0
89.2
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
332.4
344.7
327.2
362.4
448.1
1947.....
1968.... .
1969
1970
1971
1970
1971
414. CONDITION OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES — PERCENT
CONSIDERED HIGH LESS PERCENT CONSIDERED LOW 2 (PERCENT)
END OF YEAR
...
...
...
...
...
,
,
.
•
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
•. .
...
•. .
...
,.
,.
,.
15
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
..•
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
t t
...
.* .
...
...
10
...
...
...
...
12
...
...
...
...
4
...
...
...
...
15
1955
1956
1957
1958
, 1959
416. ADEQUACY OF MANUFACTURERS' CAPACITY — PERCENT CONSIDERED
INADEQUATE LESS PERCENT CONSIDERED EXCESSIVE 5
(PERCENT)
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
t
1945.....
t
,.
,.
,.
• •
,
,
,
•
t
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
24
17
12
12
14
27
13
12
13
10
23
8
13
15
10
23
8
12
11
10
23
8
12
11
10
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
...
...
...
...
30
1965
1966
1967
13
11
30
22
18
12
14
29
22
13
19
23
21
22
12
26
22
16
22
12
26
22
16
22
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
36
47
40
35
43
1968.....
1969
19
420-A. CURRENT INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO—
(PERCENT)
PERCENT REPORTING NO CHANGE IN INCOME
AVERAGE
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
.t.
...
...
...
...
...
...
•* *
...
...
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
END OF YEAR
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
•. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
,,.
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
32
...
...
...
...
34
...
...
...
32
37
...
...
...
32
37
41
45
40
35
38
43
46
41
40
39
43
42
38
42
41
43
42
38
42
41
...
...
52.4
52.3
52.9
...
...
55.2
47.5
53.0
420-B. CURRENT INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO—
PERCENT REPORTING HIGHER INCOME 3
(PERCENT)
1945
AVERAGE
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
** .
...
...
...
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
53.9
48.1
50.8
...
...
54.2
51.2
50.7
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
...
...
35.4
36.0
36.4
...
...
32.9
40.9
35.9
...
...
34.2
40.3
37.3
...
...
33.3
38.0
37.4
...
...
34.0
38.8
36.8
1970
1971
2
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
1970
1971
1970
1971
1
1949..., .
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
60.8
64.0
66.6
75.5
69.2
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
END OF YEAR
...
...
25.9
28.5
26.3
1948
52.9
65.5
65.6
76.1
69.7
...
...
23.6
26.2
29.4
193.6
48.4
66.2
65.5
75.4
70.4
MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES? TOTAL BOOK VALUE1
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
...
...
25.9
28.5
26.3
207.9
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
Annual
IV Q
...
...
25.6
28.3
27.0
50.6
52.6
46.1
45.4
51.6
48.1
III Q
...
...
24.7
27.0
28.3
1945
1946
43.5
50.1
50.9
II Q
IQ
TOTAL
...
...
186.2
...
...
46.7
53.6
48.5
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1969.....
IV Q
Year
Annual
...
...
53.9
49.8
51.8
1946.....
1970
1971
i been revised beginning with 1961.
These :
These !
3
108
JANUARY 1971
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical datci (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol @ (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
1 Q
II Q
III Q
IV Q
420-C. CURRENT INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO —
PERCENT REPORTING LOWER INCOME 1 (PERCENT)
1945
1946
1947.....
1948.....
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956. ...»
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964....,
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
..•
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
•••
...
...
11.2
11.1
10.0
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
11.0
10.9
10.5
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
..*
11.0
11.0
10.8
Annual
AVERAGE
Year
IQ
II Q
III Q
IV Q
425-A. MEAN PROBABILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES IN INCOME OF
HOUSEHOLDS— PROBABILITY OF INCREASE IN INCOME 1 (PERCENT)
...
...
.* .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
.• «
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1955
1956
1957
1958.....
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1960. ....
1961
1962
1963
1964
...
...
11.6
10.1
11.1
...
...
11.2
10.8
10.6
1965
1966
1967
1968.....
1969
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.* ,
...
...
...
...
...
...
16.0
19.3
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
.. .
15.8
18.3
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
•. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
17.4
18.4
Annual
AVERAGE
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.•.
...
.*.
...
...
...
...
.•.
...
...
...
...
..•
...
...
...
•. •
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
•. .
.•.
...
...
...
...
...
16.2
16.7
...
...
...
16.4
18.2
1970
1971
1970
1971
425-B. MEAN PROBABILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES IN INCOME OF
HOUSEHOLDS— INCREASE LESS DECREASE 1 (PERCENT)
AVERAGE
425-C. MEAN PROBABILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES IN INCOME OF
HOUSEHOLDS— PROBABILITY OF DECREASE IN INCOME 1 (PERCENT)
AVERAGE
1945.....
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.•.
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1945
1946.....
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
. ««
...
...
1950
1951,....
1952
1953.....
1954
...
...
...
..•
...
...
*. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
*. .
...
...
...
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
.,
.,
..
••
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.« .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
«• •
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.•.
...
11
1960
1961.....
1962.....
1963
1964. ....
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
..•
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964,,...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
11.2
11.9
...
...
...
10.2
11.2
...
...
...
10.4
12.4
1965
1966..,,.
1967
1968
1969
...
...
5.9
5.5
...
...
...
5.9
5.8
...
...
...
6.2
6.5
...
...
...
6.0
5.5
...
*..
...
6.0
5.8
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
...
...
...
10.1
13.8
...
...
...
9.9
12.5
1970
1971
1970.....
1971
435. INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT 2
(FIRST QUARTER 1966=100)
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
850, RATIO. OUTPUT TO CAPACITY! MANUFACTURING 3
(PERCENT)
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1945
1946.....
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
91.1
83.9
...
...
...
90.2
79.8
...
...
...
89.8
79.8
...
...
...
87.7
77.3
89.7
80.2
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
86.2
80.8
87.0
...
...
.•.
•. .
...
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
81.9
96.8
91.7
96.6
84.2
88.5
95.8
88.4
96.8
83.2
95.2
92.2
89.3
95.1
82.7
96.1
91.1
95.8
88.4
83.9
90.4
94.0
91.3
94.2
83.5
...
...
...
...
...
1955.....
1956
1957
1958
1959.....
87.4
89.4
86.7
71.9
80.6
90.2
88.2
85.0
71.2
84.9
91.1
85.6
84.0
75.3
80.7
91.5
87.6
78.6
77.7
79.8
90.0
87.7
83.6
74.0
81.5
...
...
94.8
94.8
99.2
1960
1961
1962
1963.....
1964
84.1
74.5
82.0
82.0
84.5
82.0
78.0
82.4
83.9
85.7
80.0
80.2
82.4
83.7
86.3
76.5
81.5
81.8
83.7
86.2
80.6
78.6
82.2
83.3
85.7
1965.....
1966
1967
1968
1969
68.5
90.5
87.1
85.0
84.5
88.4
90.8
85.0
85.1
84.5
88.5
90.6
84.3
84.2
84.2
88.6
90.0
84.8
84.2
81.7
88.5
90.5
85.3
84.6
83.7
1950.....
1951.....
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
90.7
82.0
...
...
.•.
...
82.9
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
78.5
...
99.1
98.2
92.9
80.9
95.3
...
99.9
...
...
...
I960.....
1961
1962
1963
1964
98.9
91.1
97.2
94.8
99.0
92.9
92.3
95.4
91.4
98.1
...
...
91.6
96.2
100.2
90.1
94.4
95.0
96.9
99.4
101.5
100.0
92.2
95.0
95.1
102.2
95.7
94.9
92.4
91.6
103.2
91.2
96.5
92.9
86.4
102.9
88.3
92.9
92.1
79.7
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
,,
,,
.t
•«
99.7
100.2
83.7
90.8
93.8
1970
1971
102.4
93.8
94.1
93.1
88.2
...
...
...
1970
1971...,.
i series have not previously been shown here.
} last shown here, this series has been revised beginning with 19i
JANUARY 1971
109
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854
to
1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861 . .
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882
May 1885
April 1888
May. 1891
June 1894
June 1897. . . .
December 1900
(x)
30
22
46
18
34
36
(x)
(x)
18
8
32
IS
65
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895 ...
June 1899
September 1902
3$
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913 • •
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933 . . .
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926 .
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
33
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 .
10 cycles 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961..
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961 .
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . .
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
. .
(x)
149
54
46
2
3
4
5
46
48
42
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and I I, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
^5 cycles, 1857-1960;
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
2
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
110
3
4
4
cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
1
6
cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE • Bureau of the Census
.key resources
on Census '70
19 70 Census
Users'
Part 1 and Part 2
The 1970 Census Users' Guide is a two-part publication
designed to furnish most of the information data users will
need for effective access and use of 1970 census data
products.
ORDER FORM
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1970 Census Users' Dictionary - defines concepts associated with
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PART 2 only of the 1970 Census
Users' Guide @ $2.75 per copy
Comparison of Printed Reports and Summary Tapes summarizes and
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Glossary - defines many terms used in connection with collecting,
processing, and publishing census data, and lists many abbreviations
relevant to the census.
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Part 2 of the Guide (prepunched for 3-ring binder) contains appendixes
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Many data users will find both Parts 1 and 2 of great value. Part 1,
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products, and related services, is an important instructional and
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INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
lescriptions
issue date) issue date)
90^
PWP in TQ^S Hollars
217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
9,21,38
5,65,71
9,21,38,56 5,65,71,87
9
5,65
9
5,65
9
5,65
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
Oct.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69 '
'69
'69
'69
10
10
10
10
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'70
'70
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
5,65
Oct.
'70
Oct.
'69
224. Disposable personal income, current dol
225. Disposable personal income, constant dol ...
226. Per capita disposable personal income,
10
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
10
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230. Total, current dollars
231.
233.
234.
236.
11
11
Total, constant dollars
11
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. . . 11
11
Automobiles, current dollars
11
Nondurable goods, current dollars
11
5,65
Oct.
'70
Oct.
'69
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
12
12
12
12
12
12,26
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66,74
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
13,47
13,49
13,49
5,67
5,67
5,67
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'70
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
May '69
14
14
14,53
14
5,67
5,67
5,67,85
5,67
Nov.' '70
Nov. '70
Nov. '70
Dec.
'70
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47 Industrial production
A5. Foreign Trade
?Sfl Net exports of soods and services
253 Imports of goods and services
A6. Gov. Purchases, Goods and Services
260.
262.
264
266.
Federal, State, and local governments
Federal Government
National defense
State and local governments
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
15
5,67
Dec.
'70
Oct.
'69
15
15
5,67
5,67
Dec.
Dec.
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
15
5,67
Dec.
'70
Oct.
'69
16
16
16
16
16
5,67
5,67
5,67
5,68
5,68
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
17
17
5,68
5,68
Dec.
Dec.
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
17
17
17
5,68
5,68
5,68
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
'70
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
18,36
18
18
18
*5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance . . . 18,36
18
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
Aug.
Aug.
'70 Aug. '68
'70
'70 June '69
'70 Aug. '68
'70 June '69
'70 Aug. '68
19
19
19
19,38
19
6,69
6,69
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
270 Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
275. Change in business inventories,
nondurable goods
A8. National Income Components
284 Rental income of persons
286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj
288 Net i nterest
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, private and government
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B1. Employment and Unemployment
*1 Average workweek prod, workers mfg
21. Avg. wkly. overtime hrs., prod, workers, mfg.
49 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
20,38
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate
40. Unemployment rate, married males
*44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
20
20
20,39
June
Aug.
June
Aug.
June '70
Dec. '70
Aug. '70
Aug. '70
Feb. '70
Feb. '70
Dec. '70
Feb. '70
June '70
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
June '69
Aug.
Aug.
*54 Sales of retail stores
June '69
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
May '70
Dec.
Dec.
Apr.
Aug.
Aug.
Nov.
Aug.
Oct.
69
Oct.
69
Nov . 68
July 68
July 68
Feb.
69
July 68
S3. Fixed Capital Investment
23,36
Feb.
Feb.
Nov.
'70
'70
'70
Sep.
'68
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . . .23,36
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
Nov.
'70
Sep.
'68
11.
24.
9.
28.
*29.
New capital appropriations, manufacturing.
New orders, producers' cap. goods indus .
Constr. contracts, com. and indus
Private housing starts, total
New bldg. permits, private housing
6,72
6,72
6,73
6,73
6,73
Aug.
Nov.
Feb.
Sep.
'68
96.
97.
*61.
69.
6,73
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries.' 25
6,73
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing . 25
7,73,79
Business expend., new plant and equip . . 25,39,40
.
Machinery and equipment sales and
25
7,73
business construction expenditures
13 New business incorporations
*6 New orders durable soods industries
23
23,36
23
24
. 24
24
24
24,36
'70
'70
'70
June ' 70
June '70
Apr . ' 69
Nov. '70
Aug. '70
Apr. '70
Sep.
'68
Nov.
'68
Nov.
'70
Sep.
'68^
7,66,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Nov.
Nov.
Feb.
Nov.
Feb.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
Oct.
Feb.
'69
'69
Sep.
'68
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Feb.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'70
'70
'70
'70
Sep.
Feb.
Sep.
'68
'69
'68
28,37
28,37,64
28,37
7,75
7,75
7,75
Aug.
'70
28
28
7,75
7,75
7,75
Aug.
'70
Aug.
'70
Mar.
Nov.
7,75
7,75,86
Sep.
Sep.
'70
'70
June '69
June '69
7,75
7,75
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
Nov.
'68
Jan.
Jan.
'71
'71
Aug.
Aug.
'68
'68
30,37
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
30
31
31
31
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
Feb.
'70
32
32
32
32
7,77
7,77
7,77
7,77
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
'70
'70
'70
'70
32
7,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
'70
May '70
Feb. '70
Feb. '70
Mar. '70
6,78
Aug.
'70
Aug.
'70
78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
Aug.
Nov.
Nov.
'70
'68
'68
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
12,26
245.
*31.
37.
20.
Change in bus. inventories, all indus
Change in mfg. and trade inventories
Purchased materials, higher inventories . .
Change in materials, supplies inventories .
32.
25.
*71.
65.
Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . . 27
27
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . . .27,39
27
Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods .
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23 Industrial materials prices
iy. MOCK prices, oyu common stoc
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
15. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
26,37
26
26
26
28,37
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities .... 29
29,55
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
29
*62
Labor cost oer unit of output mfs
29,39
July '70
July '70
June '70
Apr . ' 69
May '69
July '68
July '68
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
110 Total private borrowing
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans
114 Treasurv bill rate
116 Corporate bond vields
115 Treasury bond yields
66.
*72.
*67.
118.
30
30
30
33
Consumer installment debt
Com. and industrial loans outstanding . . .33,39
33,39
Bank rates on short-term bus. loans
33
Mortgage yields, residential
July '70
May '70
July '64
'70
'70
July '64
July '64
Feb.
Apr.
June '70
Mar.
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
B7. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj . .34
811. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse
830
813
814.
815.
816.
817.
6 lagging indicators
Marginal employment adjustments
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
34
34
35
35
35
35
35
'69
'68
July '68
B6. Money and Credit
'68=f
'68
9,21,38
6,65,71
9,21,38,56 6,65,71,87
21,38,63 6,71,99
21,38
6,71
6,71
.21
22,38
6,71
22
6,71
22,38
6,71
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . .
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240. Gross private domestic investment, total
Tables
£2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
A2. National and Personal Income
220 National income current dollars •
Charts
Series
Historical
lescriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
700 GNP in current dollars
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
113
Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS--Con.
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Cl. Aggregate Series
61. Bus. expend, new plant and equip
25,39,40
41
41
41
41
412. Mfrs ' inventories book value
73,79
79
79
79
79
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'70
'71
'71
'71
'71
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
79
79
79
79
Jan. '71
Jon. '71
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
D4. Price Movements
781 Consumer price index
782 Consumer price index
783 Consumer price index
784 Consumer price index
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
'70
'70
'70
'70
May
May
May
May
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
'70
'70
'70
'70
June
June
June
June
9,21,38,56 6,65,71,87 Dec.
56
87
56
5,87
'70
Oct.
54,62
54
54
54
all items
food
commodities
services
750. Wholesale price index, all commodities . . .55
42
420. Household income compared to year ago
425. Probability of change, household income • . . 42
42
42
June '70
'71
Jan.
751. Wholesale price index, proc. foods, feeds. .
752 Wholesale price index farm products . •
29,55
55
55
8,86
86
86
86
8,86
86,75
86
86
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
' 69
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
C2. Diffusion Indexes
D440. New orders, manufacturing
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade
rj444 Net sales manufacturing and trade
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade
D450. Level of inventories, mfg. and trade
D460 Selling prices mfg and trade
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade
D466 Selling prices retail trade
D61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip
D480. Freight carloadings
43
43
43
43
80
80
80
80
June
June
June
June
'70
'70
'70
'70
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
44
44
44
44
44
80
80
80
80
80
June
June
June
June
June
'70
'70
'70
'70
' 70
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
45
45
45
81
81
81
Apr. '70
Aug. '70
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
June '70
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
500 Merchandise trade balance
46
46
8,82
8,82
July '70
July '70
46
Feb.
46
8,82
8,82
8,82
47
8,83
Aug.
'70
May '69
8,83
83
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
47
13,47
83
83
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
48
83
Aug.
'70
May '69
48
48
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
13,49
13,49
83
83
83
83
83
Aug. '70
Aug.
«70-
May '69
May '69
49
49
83
83
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
49
83
Aug.
'70
May '69
49
50
50
83
84
84
Aug. '70
Sep.
'70
Sep.
'70
May '69
May '69
May '69
Receipts from foreigners in U.S
U.S. military expenditures abroad
Military sales to foreigners
Receipts, transportation and services
Payments, transportation and services
50
50
50
50
50
50
84
84
84
84
84
84
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
U S purchases of foreign securities
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Govt grants and capital transactions
Banking and other capital transactions
51
51
51
51
51
51
84
84
84
84
84
84
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Oct.
Oct.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
600. Fed. balance, nat'l income and prod. acct. . . 52
601. Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod, acct . . 52
602. Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. . . 52
8,85
8,85
8,85
621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
647. New orders, defense products industries
fi48 New orders defense products
.........
8,85
8,85
8,85
8,85
8,85
'70
'70
'70
'Nov. '70
Dec.
'70
Dec.
'70
Dec.
'70
Dec.
'70
Dec.
'70
May '69
May '69
506. Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor
508 Export orders nonelectrical machinery ..... 46
'70 Aug. '68#
June '70
July '70 May '69
D2. Balance of Payments and Components
520. U.S. bal. of pints., liquidity bal. basis
522. U.S. bal. of pints., official settlements
47
525. Net capital movements, liquidity bal. basis. . 47
527. Net capital movements, official settlements
250. Balance on goods and services
530 Liquid liabilities to foreigners
532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign
official agencies
534. U.S. official reserve assets
535 Allocations of SDR's
252. Exports of goods and services
253. Imports of goods and services
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted
540. Investment income, military sales, and
541. Foreigners' investment income, military
542 Income on U S investments abroad
544.
547.
546.
548.
549.
565
564
570.
575
.... •
. .
D3. Federal Government Activities
14,53
53
53
53
53
53
8,67,85
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
114
El. Actual and Potential GNP
9r>£
Artiml PMD in 1QKQ rlnllarc
206. Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
'69
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing. . . 57
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . . 57
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
8,88
8,88
Jan. '71
Nov. '70 Feb . ' 69
57
8,88
Nov.
57
8,88
Apr.
58
8,88
Aug.
58
58
58
8,88
8,88
8,88
Feb.
Oct.
Aug.
'70
'70 June ' 68
'70 June '68
58
58
8,88
8,88
Jan. J71 June '68
Feb. '70
89,92
89,92
89
90
90,93
90,94
90,94
Oct.
Apr.
Aug.
Feb.
Dec.
Jan.
Oct.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70 May '69
'71 Apr. '69
'70 June '69
91,95
91,95
91,96
91,97
Oct.
May
Jan.
Jan.
'70
'70
'71 June '69
'71
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'70 Oct. '69
'70 Oct. '69
'70 Nov. '68
'70 Aug. '68#
'70
'70 July '68
'70 Nov. '68
'70 June '69
'70 May '69
98
98
98
98
98
98
98
Sep.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'70 May '69
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
Apr.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
'70
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
May '69
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
unfilled to persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm .
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers . .
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. .
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing
E3. Diffusion Indexes
Dl. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
D6. New orders, durable goods industries
Dll. New capital appropriations, mfg
D34 Profits manufacturing . .
..
59
59
59
... 59
59
59
D5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance. . 59
D41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
D47. Industrial production
D58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
60
60
60
60
E5. Rates of Change
200. GNP in current dollars
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators.
48. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
47. Index of industrial production
55. Index of whsle. prices, indus. commodities
781. Index of consumer prices, all items
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
'70
Sep.
'68
'70
Nov.
'68
'70
July '68
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Fl. Consumer Price Indexes
781. United States
133 Canada
132. United Kingdom
135. West Germany
136. France
138. Japan
137. Italy
F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47 United States
123 Canada
122 United Kingdom
126 France
125. West Germany
128 Japan
121 OECD European countries . .
127. Italy
July '68#
July '68# F3. Stock Price Indexes
July '68#
19. United States
Oct. '69
143 Canada
Sep."'68#
142
146.
145.
148.
147.
United Kingdom
France
West Germany
Japan
Italy
54,62
62
62
62
62
62
62
21,38,63
63
63
63
63
63
.... 63
63
28,37,64
64
64
64
64
64
64
'68
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk
(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and
are obtained from the same sources.
244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4, B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6)
A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8, E5)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8, El, E5)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). -- Depart
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Com
merce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6, D3)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). • Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)
274. Final sales, nondurable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). -- Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).. Depart
nent of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
Office of Business Economics
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
*17. Index of price per unit of labor cost -- ratio, index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to
seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees
(sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B5, B8)
284. Rental income of persons (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8)
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
(A4)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q). -The Conference Board
(B3,E3)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
thru May 1970 and by source agency thereafter.
(B3, B8)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
292. Personal saving (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M). -- McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(B3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
'5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3, E4)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). •• McGrawHill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(B3)
(A9)
B Cyclical Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
• Department of Commerce,
(B5, B8)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). -- Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8r t3, E4, F3)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
the Census
(B4)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers, manufacturing (M). --Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B5)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, producers' capital goods
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B3)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). -- National
Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
28. New private housing units started, total (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). -- Department
of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (IKI). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B4r B8)
Continued on reverse
115
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (M). -- Purchasing Management Association of
Chicago
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and
life insurance companies (M). -- Institute of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing
and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S.
Savings and Loan League; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census.
(B6)
37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). -- National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B4)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). -• American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Deportment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). -• Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, B8)
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). -- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration
(Bl)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). -- National
Industrial Conference Board
(Bl)
*470 Index of industrial production (M). •• Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, E5)
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations -- ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B6, B8)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(86)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
%. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -The Conference Board
(B3)
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department
(B6)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). -- First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department (B6)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20bond average (M). -- The Bond
Buyer
(B6)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department
of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM). --Department of
Labor,Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
(Bl)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
*52. Personal income (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, B8, E5)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators -- reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*54. Sales of retail stores (M). • Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5)
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).-- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, E5)
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M). — Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8)
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)
*61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(B3, B8, Cl, C2)
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing - ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all
manufacturing industries (EOM). --- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
116
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
(B7)
811. Twelve leading indicators -- composite index prior to reverse
trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19,
23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
813. Marginal employment adjustments -- leading composite index
(includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
814. Capital investment commitments -- leading composite index
(includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing - leading composite
index (includes series 23, 25T 31, and 37) (M). - Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
816. Profitability •- leading composite index (includes series 16,
17, and 19) (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B7)
817. Sensitive financial flows -- leading composite index (includes
series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7, E5)
830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures far new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q). -- Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Off ice
of Business Economics
(Cl)
416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective
operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying
existing capacity as excessive (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) in
income of households (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Cl)
430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). -- University of Michigan,
Survey Research Center
(Cl)
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0480. Freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American Railroads
(CZ)
480. Change in freigit carloadings (Q). -- Association of American
railroads
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). See in
section B.
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in
section A.
25Z. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).--See in section A.
253. Imports of goods and services:
(Q).--Seem section A.
U.S. balance of payments
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). --See in section A.
500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 116)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M). -McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to
number of persons unemployed (M).-- Department of Labor,
Manpower Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
512. General imports, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Dl)
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in
U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to
all foreigners) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D3)
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change
in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and
certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official
agencies) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
accounts (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D3)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
525. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on liquidity
balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
527. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
military assistance (M). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)
530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EOQ). -• Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(D2)
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
535. Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D3)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61,
and section C for D440, D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464,
D466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D3)
750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)
751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(D4, E5, Fl)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) -- Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
Labor,
(D4)
Depart(D4)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). - Institut National
de la Statistsque etdes Etudes Economiques(Paris)
(F2)
784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
782. Index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of
Bureau of Labor Statistics
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -ment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
E Analytical Measures
47. Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See in section B.
52. Personal income (M). See in section B.
54. Sales of retail stores (M). See in section B.
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). See in
section B.
200. GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap -- the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series 205) (Q). -- Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
781. Index of consumer prices, all items (M). See in section D.
820. Five coincident indicators - composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
(D2)
548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(E2)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -- Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- Insitut National de la
Statist!que et des Etudes Economiques(Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(Fl)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). -- Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la
Statist!que et des Etudes Economiques(Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome)
(F3)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo)
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D.
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