Full text of Business Conditions Digest : January 1970
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DigitizedU.S.
for FRASER
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
JANUARY 1970
DATA THROUGH DECEMBER
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Statistical Analysis Division.
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and review,
Barry A, Beckman-—Specifications for computer processing,
Gerald F, Donahoe—Now projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic
data. (Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the
Administrative and Publications Services Division,
The cooperation of various government and private agencies
which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources
at the back of this report.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Maurice H. Stans, Secretary
Rocco C. Siciliano, Under Secretary
Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of
a technical committee established by the Bureau of the
Budget. This committee consists of the following persons:
Julius Shi skin, Chairman
Bureau of the Budget, Executive Office of the President
William H. Branson, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of the President
A. Ross Eckler, Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce
George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics, Department of
Commerce
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department
of Labor
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
George Hay Brown, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
EDWIN D. GOLDFIELD, Assistant Director
ABOUT THE REPORT
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summariz& both receipts and
final expenditures for the
persona/, business, forei'gn, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of tota/
economic activity. The
total of trie final
expenditures, which
equals the tota/ of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output, GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, eo=
ineiders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing,
These indicators were
se/ected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
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This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely on
the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
modeS concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government,
and various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Business Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to
make it more generally useful to those concerned with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office.
lien
New Features and Changes for This Issue.,
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
JANUARY 1970
Data Through December
Series ESI No. 70-1
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
1
1
1
1
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures.
Section F. International Comparisons...
2
3
3
3
3
.
Howto Read Charts...
4
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
4
....
5
PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al
~A2
A3
—
JV5
_A6
A7
A8
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade.
.....
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
,
National Income Components
Saving
9
10
11
... 12
13
14
15
16
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
18
21
23
26
28
...30
34
36
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
40
43
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements..
..46
47
52
54
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2
E3
E5
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change
56
57
59
61
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
62
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
63
64
PART II. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
-AL
A2
JV3
A5
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
65
65
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
66
66
67
67
67
67
68
....
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
JH
JUS
B3
JB4
JB5
B6
Employment and Unemployment....*..
.....'
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade..—.Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits.
Money and Credit
69
71
72
74
75
,. 76
—
....
Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
Composite Indexes
78
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes.....................
—
79
80
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
,...
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
82
83
85
86
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP...........
87
Analytical Ratios...
Diffusion Indexes
........—
Selected Diffusion Index Components
.—.........
88
89
92
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices....
Industrial Production...Stock Prices....
„..
98
99
100
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See September issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See December issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors (See December issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series (Not shown this month)
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (Not shown this month)
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
1854 to 1961 (See October issue)
Technical Paper—The 1961-69 Economic Expansion in the
United States: The Statistical Record
101
Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources for Series
113
115
-
ii
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
Changes in this issue are as follows:
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, new/y available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
1. The series on U.S. industrial production (series 47 and 853)
have been revised for the period January through December 1968 due
to the source agency's annual updating of the data and nev seasonal
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
adjustment factors. These revisions are also reflected in diffusion indexes D4/7. Further information concerning this revision
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
changes in placement of
System, Business Conditions Section.
other series, changes
series in relation to
2. Series 17 (Price per unit of labor cost) and series 62
(Labor cost per unit of output) have been revised for the period
January 1966 through December 1968 to incorporate recent revisions
data on industrial production and national income and product
accounts.
3. A paper entitled "The 1961-69 Economic Expansion in the
United States: The Statistical Record," by Julius Shiskin, is
included in this issue. This paper contains a descriptive analysis
of the statistical highlights of the current economic expansion—
the longest in the U.S. history.
The February issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on February 27.
iii
in composition of
indexes, etc.
4 CENSUS PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
DIGEST
DEFENSE INDICATORS
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of years,
This report brings together
approximately 600 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form v/hich is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current business
conditions and prospects is
the national income model,
the leading indicators,
anticipations and Intentions,
or a combination of these.
Other types of data such as
foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. Also, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for purchase.
A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965,
A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on the
national economy.
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development. Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-product/on-de/ivery process. Most
are monthly series, although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
IV
The source statements for
FORTRAN IV programs which
are used by the Bureau in
its analysis of time series
are available from the Bureau
on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
program for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X-I1 variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the
X-11Q for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
ad/ustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part H (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1948 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section FT most
charts contain shading which indicates
periods of recession in general business
activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (OBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Persona/ consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures
the excess of exports over imports of goods
and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resou rces. I mports incl ude both
U.S. purchases of foreign output and the
contribution made to production in the
United States by foreign-owned resources.
More detail on U.S. balance of payments
is provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an ac-
counting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
] SECTION B
CYCLICAL
j INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
^characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 72
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity,
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses tha same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 72 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns an
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging »indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that of the
coincident index. This facilitates compari-
Cross^Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
>v
>w
Economic
Process
A.
\.
\.
Cyclical
Timing
I. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)
VI, MONEY
AND CREDIT
(17 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins
(4 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
(2 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)
\.
\.
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (3 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
sons among the leading, coincident, and
lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The o.
ss analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what thev expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected group
of economic series. Percent changes at annual rate are shown for 1- and 3-month
spans or for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) as •
designated by NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
20 -i/month for which data are plotted,
("6" = June)
2 Roman number indicates latest
"y quarter for which data are
/
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc,)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L~l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted iy2, 2,
or 2l/z months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of "Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1967
1968
1969
3dQ
1968
4th Q
1968
Percent change
IstQ
1969
2dQ
3dQ
1969
1969
4th Q
1969
IstQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
3dQ
to
4th Q
1969
1969
1969
1
<D
£
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
Ann.raterbil.dol..
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol. . .
do
793.5
674.6
117.6
3f984
3i388
865-7
707.6
122.3
4 ? 302
3i517
932*3
727.7
128.1
4»587
3»5SO
876.4
712,8
122,9
4t350
3*538
892.5
718.5
124.2
4t418
3»557
9 0 8.7
723.1
125.7
4t488
3i57l
924.8
726.7
127,3
4t556
3 ? 580
942-8
730.6
129.0
4 ? 633
3t590
953.1
73Q.5
130.5
4»6?0
3 1579
1»8
0.5
1.3
1.5
0.3
1-9
0.5
1.3
1.7
0,3
1.2
0.8
-0,3
200
205
210
215
217
Ann.rate.bil.dol..
do
do
224. Disposable personal income, current dol ...
do
225. Disposable personal income, constant dol . .
226. Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol '. . .
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
do
constant dollars
654.0
629.4
546.5
477.7
714.4
687.9
590,0
497,6
771,5
747,1
629.6
509.4
724.1
696.1
593.4
498.9
737,3
711.2
604.3
502,1
751.3
724.4
610.2
502.6
765,7
740.5
622.0
506.2
780.6
756.5
639,0
514,1
NA
766,9
647.1
514.5
1.9
2.2
1*9
0.7
1.9
2.2
2.7
1.6
NA
1.4
1,3
0,1
220
222
224
•"»5
2t745
2»933
3? 098
2t946
2f99l
3i014
3 t 065
3tl40
3il71
1.7
2.4
1.0
L&'i.-
2? 399
2i474
2*507
2t477
2?485
2t482
2t494
2t526
2i521
0.5
1.3
Ann. rate, bil. dol. . 492,3
Total, current dollars
do
Total, constant dollars
430.3
. . .do
Durable goods current dollars
73,0
do
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. .
48,1
do
Automobiles, current dollars
24.9
do
Nondurable goods, current dollars
215.1
do
Services, current dollars
204,2
536.6
452.6
83.3
53.2
30,2
230.6
222.8
576.0
466.0
89.6
58,0
31.6'
243,8
242,5
544,9
458.2
85.8
54.1
31.7
233,3
225,8
550.7
457.6
86.3
54.9
31.4
234.3
230,1
562.0
462,9
86.4
57.5
30.9
238.6
235.0
572,8
466,2
90,6
59*2
31.4
242.1
240.1
579.8
466.5
89.8
57.7
32.1
245,1
244.9
589*2
468.5
89*6
57.6
32.0
249,4
250.2
1.9
0.7
2,5
3.0
1,6
1.5
2.2
116.0
83.7
27,9
55,7
25,0
7.4
126.3
83.8
29.3
59.5
30.2
7.3
139.6
99.3
33,4
65,9
32,2
8,0
125,2
88,1
29.0
59.1
29.9
7,2
133.9
91.5
30,1
61.4
31,9
10.5
135.2
95.3
32.3
63.0
33.3
6.6
137,4
97.8
32.1
65.7
32.7
6.9
143.3
101,1
34.7
66,4
31,4
10,7
142,4
103.0
34.4
68.6
31.6
7.8
do
do
.do
5.2
46.2
41,0
2.5
50.6
48.1
2.1
55.4
53.3
3.6
53.4
49,7
1.2
50.6
49.4
1.5
47.6
46.1
1.6
57,1
55,5
2.7
57.8
55.2
do
do
do
do
180.1
90.7
72.4
89.3
200.3
99.5
78.0
100.7
214.7
102.0
79,3
112,7
202.5
100.9
78.8
101,7
206.7
101.9
79.3
104.8
210.0
101.6
79.0
108.5
212,9
100,6
78.5
112.3
do , ...
157,0
171.4
186,1
173.7
176.6
181.6
do... .
do
3,9
234.1
5.3
252.3
6.2
265.7
5,1
256,1
7,4
256,4
do
3,5
2.0
1,6
2.1
3.1
do
do
do
do
467,4
61,9
20.3
79,2
24,7
513.6
63.8
21.2
87,9
28.0
564,2
66,3
21.6
88.7
30,6
519.8
64.1
21.2
90.6
28.4
do
do
119,2
40.4
128.4
33.4
NA
37,6
.do
do
do
24.8
68,6
-14.5
23.4
73.3
-6.7
NA
77,9
9,0
do
-1 «7
200.
205.
210.
215.
217
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
1*1
o.o
A2. Notional and Personal Income
720. National income current dollars
-0.2
227
1.2
0.1
-0.9
-2.5
2.2
1.2
2,0
1.6
0.4
-0,2
-0.2
-0,3
1.8
2.2
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
1,6
2.6
-0,6
4.3
-1,8
0.3
4,3
3,4
8.1
1.1
-4,0
3.8
"•0,6
1.9
-0,9
3,3
0.6
-2.9
240
241
242
243
244
245
2.6
59.1
56.4
0.1
20.0
20.4
1.1
1.2
-0.5
-0.1
2.2
2.2
250
252
253
217.0
103,2
80.3
113.8
218.9
102.7
79.2
116*2
1*4
-1.0
-0.6
3.5
1.9
2.6
2.3
1.3
0.9
-0.5
-1.4
2.1
260
262
264
266
185*5
187.8
189.7
2,1
1,2
1.0
270
4.8
259.7
4,9
264,1
7.6
267.4
7.4
271.5
0.1
1*7
2,7
1.2
"0.2
1.5
271
274
1,8
2.1
3.1
0.4
0.3
1.0
-2.7
275
532,3
64.1
21.4
90.3
29,3
546.0
64.6
21,5
89.5
29,8
558.2
66.5
21.6
89.2
30.3
571.9
67.3
21.7
83.8
30.9
580.9
66.7
21.8
NA
31.6
2.2
2.9
0.5
-0,3
1,7
2,5
1,2
0.5
-0.4
2,0
1,6
-0.9
0,5
NA
2.3
260
282
284
286
288
129,1
33.2
135.4
38.0
138,5
32,5
142.7
33.3
150.2
43.1
NA
41.6
3.0
2,5
5,3
29,4
NA
-3.5
290
292
25.6
73,7
-3,5
23.6
74.6
-0.9
21,8
75,9
8,3
20.8
77.2
11.4
21.2
78.6
7.4
NA
79.9
NA
-4.6
1,7
3.1
1.9
1.8
-4.0
NA
1,7
NA
294
296
298
-9.5
-3.-?
-15.9
-2.4
0.8
B.I
3.5
3.2
7.3
207
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232
233.
234.
236.
237.
A4. Gross Privote Domestic Investment
, do
do
do
do
do
do
240. Gross private domestic investment, total. . .
241.
242.
243,
244.
Fixed
Fixed
Fixed
Fixed
investment, total nonresidential
investment, nonresidential structures.
investment, producers' dur. equip. . . .
investment, residential structures . . .
A5. Foreign Trade
250 Net exports of goods and services 2
253 Imports
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262
264
266
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270 Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods2
274. Final sales, nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods2
A8. Notional Income Components
280.
282
284.
286.
288
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj. . .
Net interest
do./
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, total
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2
El.
..
Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP eao (potential less actual) 2
-7.7
n.2
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Percent change
Dec.
1969
Oct.
to
Nov.
1969
Nov.
to
Dec.
1969
2dQ
to
3dQ
1969
«
3dQ
to
4th Q
1969
i
1
1968
1969
2dQ
1969
141.4
156.6
164*8
151.7
169.9
188.8
152.2
169*1
185.1
152.3
171,5
193.0
152.1
173.1
198.1
153.3
172.5
196.4
151.6
173.6
197.6
151.3
173.1
200.4
-1*1
0.6
0.6
-0.2
-0.3
1.4
0.1
1.4
4.3
106*4
114.2
101.8
116.6
101.9
NA
117.9
105.6
116.8
NA
107.7
118.5
105.4
118.4
101.7
106.5
117.9
106.7
115,7
NA
116.4
106.6
114.7
NA
105.6
117.7
107.4
104.7
116.0
106.9
115.3
NA
115.5
105.4
112.9
NA
-0.9
-1*4
-0.5
-0.4
"0.9
NA
-0.4
-1.4
-2.1
NM
-1.1
-0,5
1,2
-2.3
-3.1
-1.3
-0,1
-0.9
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1, Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg, , . . Hours
40.7
4. Nonagri, placements, all industries
Ann. rate, thous. . 5»716
2, Accession rate, manufacturing 2
Per 100 employ . , 4,6
*5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State 3
194
unemployment insurance (inverted )
Thousands
3. Layoff rate, manufact jring (inverted 3 ) 2 . . . Per 100 employ..
1.2
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.5
40.5
40.5
40.6
5fi50
NA
5*356
4.9
5 1 196
4.7
4t696
NA
4*860
4.7
4i716
4.4
4f5l2
NA
0.0
-3.0
-0.3
0.2
-4,3
NA
0.0
-3.0
-o.a
-0.5
"9.6
194
NA
186
1*1
198
1,2
209
NA
202
1.3
214
1.3
210
NA
-5.9
0,0
1.9
NA
-6.S
-0,1
-5,6
-1.5
-2.2
-13.0
-2.7
-9.7
-0.9
-15,0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.6
0.6
0,9
0.0
0.3
O.S
48
41
42
0,5
0.0
-0.2
0.1
43
0,0
-0.2
3dQ
1969
4th Q
1969
Oct.
1969
Nov.
1969
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
137. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj. . 19g3=10o
do
820, 5 coincident indicators ...............
do
830, 6 lagging indicator*;
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
813.
814.
815.
816,
817.
Marginal employment adjustments
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
.,
do
do
do
do
do
98.5
U5.8
99.2
98,3
-0.3
0,9
2.6
NA
NA
810
820
830
813
814
BIS
816
817
Bl, Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
NA
NA
1
4
2
5
3
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies;
Thous., HOP.. ,.
1957-59-100 ....
373
206
294
227
383
231
346
229
294
222
343
£27
338
222
294
216
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
Ann. rate, billion
establishments.
man-hours
Millions .......
*41. Employees on nonsgri payrolls
do
42, Persons engaged in nonagri. activities . . .
134.6
139.0
139.8
139.8
139,9
139.8
70.1
74.3
139.0
70*0
73*8
139,8
67.8
72.1
70,4
74,5
70.6
75.1
70.7
75.0
70.7
75.1
70.6
75.3
3.5
3.7
46, Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 3 ) 2 , . . . Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured
unemployment
do
rate (inverted3)2
40. Unemployment
rate,
mairted
males
3 2
do
(inverted )
,
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.9
3.4
3.4
-0.1
-3,1
49
46
45
2*2
2*1
2.0
2.2
2.3
2,2
2.3
2.3
1.6
1.5
1*5
1.6
1.6
U7
1.5
1.6
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
40
0.5
0.5
0*5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
44
Ann,rate,bil.dol..
do
1957-59-100 ....
865.7
707.6
165.5
932.3
727.7
172.2
924*8
726.7
172.6
942.8
730,6
174.3
953.1
730.5
171.8
173. I
171.4
170.9
-1.0
1.9
O.S
1.0
1.1
0.0
-l.tt
200
205
47
Comprehensive Income:
*52. Personal income, , ,
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
do
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . . .
687.9
178.6
747.1
194*7
740*5
193.5
756.5
197.6
766.9
199,1
763.7
198.9
767.4
198.7
769.7
199.8
0.5
-0*1
0,3
0.6
2.2
1.4
0.8
52
S3
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56, Manufacturing end trade safes
57. Final sales
*54. Sales of retail stores ,
It 162
NA
858.4 924.3
338.4
351.8
1*239
917.9
352.8
1*259
932.0
350.8
NA
945.3
355,0
1*282
It274
NA
-0.6
NA
1«6
1.5
355.4
354,6
355.0
-0.2
0.1
-0.6
NA
1.4
1.2
56
57
54
NA
NA
123.5
296.2
120.5
273.0
NA
NA
-2.4
-7.8
NA
NA
-0.7
NA
NA
12
13
»0,1
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate,
15 weeks and
over (inverted3)2
do
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*20S, GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production , . ,
do
do
do
-0.3
2.1
63. Fixed Capitol Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12, Index of net business formation
13, New business incorporations
1957-5^100 ....
Ann. rate, thous, .
117.8
233.2
NA
NA
123.5
281.6
123.9
279.6
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries —
8. Construction contracts, totnl value . . ,
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . ,
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing.
24, New orders, mach, and equip, industries .
9, Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings .
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
*29, New btdg, permits, private housing
Ann. rate, bil. dol.. 334.5
1957-59-100 ....
176
.Ann, rate, bil. do!. . 85.0
do
24.8
do
.
69,7
Ann. rate, mil. sq.
ft.floor space . .
793
Ann. rate, thous. . It 498
1957-59-100.... 112.9
365.9
194
360.4
193
374.8
190
369.1
197
381.6
195
372.6
178
353.0
218
96.5
30.0
80.2
96.0
31.1
94.6
96.0
91.6
96.4
-2.4
-8.7
-4.6
-5,3
22.5
95,1
79*8
76.0
77.4
76.8
73.9
-0.8
-3.8
-0.5
-4.8
6
8
10
11
24
907
If 475
109.3
927
1*496
116.0
846
Ii4l4
102.3
943
1*299
1*029
If 379
762
1» 277
If 039
If 240
98.9
99.5
98.4
36.4
-2.9
-1.1
-8.7
-5.5
98,9
-11.8
11.5
-8.1
-3.3
9
7
29
85.68
NA
85*91
21.52
86.38
22.26
85.68
NA
86.29
86.24
85.68
-o.a
96
97
NA
78.1
5.2
0.3
4.0
-1.6
-0.5
3.7
NA
-25.9
-7.4
0.6
-1.5
3.7
-1.5
NA
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitment!;:
4
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
. Bil. dol., EOF...
97. Backlog of capital approp..mfg.4
do
84.07
20.02
-0.1
-0.6
O.I?
3.4
NA
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Percent change
1968
1969
2dQ
1969
3dQ
1969
4th Q
1969
64.il
71.21
70.20
72.45
a73.30
62.69
NA
90.18
94.98
NA
7.3
8.0
6.9
10*7
7.8
Oct.
1969
Nov.
1969
Dec.
1969
Nov.
to
Dec.
1969
Oct.
to
Nov.
1969
2dQ
to
3dQ
1969
3dQ
to
4th Q
1969
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B, CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
63. Fixed Capitol Investment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61, Business expend., new plant and equip • • * Ann. rate, bil. dol.
69, Machinery and equipment sales and
do
business construction expenditures
94.99
93.27
NA
-1,8
NA
18.2
8,3
NA
-9.9
52
53
57
NA
3.2
1.2
6t
5,3
NA
69
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business inventories, all
industries2.
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories2
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
20, Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies2 .
26, Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2 ©
32, Vendor performance, percent reporting
Ann. rate, billion
dollars
do
Percent ...
Ann. rate, billion
dollars
— Ffercent
25. Change in unfilled
oroers, durable goods
industries2.
do
Ann. rate billion
dollars
10.1
NA
11.4
13.9
51
50
50
50
3,8
1.4
NA
ItO
0.4
NA
3.5
64
63
65
62
64
63
53
65
69
67
64
3.5
1.6
3.0
1*9
-2,8
153.8
NA
159.3
162.7
NA
29.13
NA
30.45
31.10
NA
245
NA
NA
31
0
2
37
NA
20
2
26
47
4
-10
0.1
NA
-3.4
NA
65
65
2
0
62
64
-3
2
-0.6
-6.7
0.5
-6.1
164.2
164,9
NA
0.4
NA
31.21
31.54
NA
1.1
NA
65
-1.1
-2,9
2,5
-0.6
-3
-3
32
-4.7
25
2.1
NA
71
2.1
NA
65
1.0
23
-2
-1.1
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71, Book value, mfg. and trade inventories *. .Bil. dot., EOF...
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
do
of finished goods*
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices®
1957-59=100 ....
97.8
111.8
110*4
114.9
116.1
115.6
115,6
117.2
0.0
1*4
4.1
Stock Prices:
*19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks©
1941-43=10
98.7
97.8
101.7
94.5
94.3
95.5
96,2
91.1
0.7
-5,3
-7.1
Ann. rate, bit. dol.
49.8
50.8
51.3
49.7
NA
NA
NA
98.5
99.1
98,5
98*0
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16 Corporate profits after taxes
22, Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries2
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg,2
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
;9
NA
16
NA
NA
-0.9
22
15
17
0,5
0.8
1.2
1.1
55
58
1.6
1.2
NA
2,0
68
62
3.0
1*2
NA
NA
13,1
-7.4
-4.4
-1.9
-1.9
-8.6
-18.8
7.4
1.4
NA
NA
4.0
NA
98
85
33
113
112
110
24.2
17.4
-3.1
Percent
Cents
1957-59=100 ....
11.4
5.1
99.8
NA
NA
99.4
11*0
4.9
99.9
10*4
4.8
99.4
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55, Wholesale prices, indus. commodities © . 1957-59=100 ....
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods© . .....do
109.0
109.4
112.6
113.3
112*2
112.8
112.8
113.7
114.2
114.9
113.8
114.6
114.2
114.9
114.6
115.3
0.4
0,3
0,4
0.3
0.723
109,6
NA
114.0
0.755
113.0
0.767
114.3
NA
116,6
115.6
116.7
117.6
1,0
0.8
9.0
7.0
20.0
8.9
7.6
80.8
-1.5
2.5
NA
NA
7.4
NA
0.7
4.4
21.4
9.6
10.8
99.3
*6*7
0.0
19.5
7.7
2.2
80.6
0.7
1.4
NA
NA
6.2
NA
-1.6
0.6
18*6
8*0
7.6
0.4
1.2
19.4
7.4
-1.1
3.4
2.4
NA
NA
12.0
2.0
0,6
0.8
-0.6
-8.7
0.94
1.14
1.21
1.00
1.36
1.40
1.53
1,16
-9.3
-0.6
-0,2
-0,5
-0.6
-0.1
-0.5
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
Dollars
*62.
Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
1957-59=100 ....
B6. Money and Credit
LEADfNG INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in 2money supply and time
Ann. rate, percent
deposits
do
85 Change in money supply22
Ann.
rate, bil. dol.
33, Change in mortgage debt
2
do
•113. Change in consumer installment
debt . ..
do
112, Change in business loans 2
110 Total private borrowing
do
Credit Difficulties:
do
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.3)©.
39, Delinquency 2rate,
installment loans
(inverted^ 4
Percent, EOP ...
1.71
NA
-36.0
14
1.64
1*70
NA
1,69
NA
NA
NA
NA
-0,06
NA
39
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
93, Free reserves (inverted 3)2 © . .
Million dollars...
-207
-872 -H003
,-950
-943
-992
-988
-849
-4
-139
-53
-7
93
Money
114,
116.
115,
117.
Percent
do
do
do
5.34
6.84
5.26
4.45
6.69
8.06
6.12
5.72
7.05
8,16
6.14
6.00
7.32
8,87
6.53
6*40
7.04
8.46
6,27
6.09
7.19
8.94
6*52
6*30
7,72
9.22
6.81
6.82
0.15
0.48
0,25
0.21
0.53
0.28
0,29
0,52
0.81
0.43
0.23
0.57
0.27
0.71
0,39
0.40
114
116
115
117
Market Interest Rates:
Treasury bill rate 2 ®
Corporate bond yields22 ©
Treasury bond yields 2©
Municipal bond yields <a
6.24
7.73
5.91
5.43
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
4th Q
1969
Oct.
to
Nov.
1969
Nov.
to
Dec.
1969
2dQ
to
3dQ
1969
3 Q
to
4th Q
1969
Oct.
1969
1969
Dec.
1969
NA
79.7
93.2
78. 3
95.8
78.4
NA
79.7
0,6
0.1
NA
1,7
2.1
1.3
NA
2.2
66
72
8.82
8.37
8.83
8.53
8.48
8.48
8.62
0.0
0.14
0.96
0.21
0.01
0.16
67
116
0.9
2.3
2.1
1,7
1.8
2.6
0.1
1,0
1.4
-0.2
500
37.3
39.4
39.5
39.9
40.3
40.4
38.9
0,2
-3.7
0.3
1,0
502
NA
NA
36.0
14.2
262
38.5
15.1
272
37.2
NA
NA
37.8
16,1
265
38«7
15.9
241
38.6
NA
NA
36,1
-1.2
-9.1
-0.3
NA
NA
-6.5
6*3
3.6
-3.4
NA
NA
1,6
506
508
512
NA -15.48 -10.22
NA
4.94 -3.67
NA
NA
5.26
-8*61
NA
NA
520
522
13.0
7.2
NA
-5.8
NA
600
201*6
202.3
200.8
NA
-0,7
191.9
79.3
NA
NA
46.8
22.7
35.6
189.3
78.5
74.4
17.0
42.8
20.6
31.7
193.6
80.3
80.5
19,4
44,8
21,0
35.5
196.2
79.2
NA
NA
50.9
24.0
35,6
87.8
24.8
49.8
22.7
39.8
84*3
23.6
55.6
26.4
31.9
NA
NA
47.3
22.9
35.3
-4.0
-4.0
11.6
16.3
-19.8
127.7
113.0
126,9
112,6
128.7
113.4
130.5
114.6
129.8
114.0
130.5
114,7
131.3
115.1
0.5
0.6
83.8
84,5
84.2
81.8
1969
2dQ
1969
3dQ
1969
Outstanding Debt:
Bil. dol., EOP. . . 88*1
66. Consumer installment debt4
do
*72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding 4. . .
72.3
NA
79.7
92.6
77.0
94,5
78.0
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus.2 loans 2<g). . . Percent
do
118. Mortgage yields, residential ®
6.68
7.19
8.21
8.29
7.86
3,16
1*0
1.3
do
34.1
do
1957-59-100....
Ann.rate,bil.dol..
12.3
241
33,1
do
.... do ...
0.17
1.64
do
-5.2
9.7
. do
176.3
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
181.5
78.0
86.6
26.9
47.5
NA
42.3
1968
Percent change
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Nov.
B. CYCLICAL INOSCATORS-Con.
B6. Money and Credit-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
500. Merchandise trade balance2
502. Exports excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods except motor
vehicles
508. Export orders, nonelect'ical machinery
512. General imports
Ann. rate, bil. dol. .
D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
520 Liquidity balance basis'* 3
522* Official settlements basis
D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts2
601. Federal receipts, national income and
product accounts.
. ,
602. Federal expenditures, national income
and product accounts
264 National defense purchases
616. Defense Dept. obligations, total
621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement , . ,
647. New orders, defense products industries. . .
648. New orders, defense products
625. Military contract awards in U.S
NA
601
NA
NA
-14.9
-13.3
10.7
2.3
2.3
B,2
14.1
4.7
1.9
12.0
1.3
-1,4
NA
NA
13.6
14.3
0.3
602
264
616
621
647
648
625
0,6
0,3
1,4
0.7
1.4
1.1
781
750
D4. Price Movements
781, Consumer prices all iteni^ ©
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities ®
1957-59-100 .... 121,2
do
108.7
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2* . Pprrpnt
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
RutJO
and trade
«
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
durable goods industries
do
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
1957-59-100 ....
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
Rat in
personal income
855, Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
do
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. . 1957-59-100 ....
856. Real average hourly earnings, production
1957-59 dollars..
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers* •
do
857, Vacancy rate in total rental housing 2 ® . • Percent • « « • » * *
84.5
1.54
NA
1.54
1.54
NA
1.54
3.31
NA
3.22
3.14
NA
3.03
1.55
NA
0.6
-0,3
-2.4
850
NA
0,0
NA
651
3.07
NA
1.3
NA
-2,5
NA
852
124.9
121.9
122.3
-2,4
0,3
-0.2
1.7
853
118.0
121.0
121.3
121.0
123.0
0.065
0.059
0.053
0,067
0,064
26.4
-4.5
854
0.133
134,2
0.126
NA
0.137
134.5
0.117
134.3
0,112
NA
0.109
0.121
0.105
11.0
-13.2
-14,6
-0.1
-4*3
NA
655
858
2.48
2.50
2,48
2.51
2,50
2.50
2.50
2.49
0.0
-0.4
1.2
-0.4
656
78.53
5.4
78.21
NA
78.24
5.1
78.30
5.0
78,02
NA
78,18
78.10
77.77
-0.1
-0.4
0.1
-0.1
-0,4
NA
859
857
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®,which appear to contain no seasonal movement, *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA - not available.
- anticipated,
EOP - end of period.
1
In many eaaeg, data Ethcwn here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published by the source agencies or they are refunded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series)
are 2averages or totals of the data aa shown in part II.
Differenoes rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Inverted series. Since this aeries
tends to move counter to movements in general business activity? signs of the changes are reversed.
4
Sid-=Q£-period series. The annua1 figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
8
Chart Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
200. GNP in current dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. (foil
205. €NP in 1958 dollars, Q ann. rate, bit, dot.
210. (mpHcit price deflator, Q (index: 1958-100)
215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, Q (am. rate, thous. dol.)
per capita GNP in
Q (am. rate, thous. dol)
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
ItCII
JANUARY
1970
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A2
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
(Nov.) (Oet)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
220. Nation* income, current rioters, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)
222. Personal income, current dollars, Q
rate, bil. dol)
224. Disposal personal income,
rioters, Q Wi. rate, bit dol)
225. Disposal (**sonal income, 1958 dollars,
Q (arm. rate, bil dol.)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
03
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for thoco series ore shown on page 65.
10
JANUARY
1970
ItCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A3
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Chart
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
232. Durabte goods, total, current dollars, Q
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
IMJ) JANUARY 1970
11
Section A
NATIONAL
AND
Chart A4 I GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
p
TI
(Aug.)
(Jit) (Apr.)
) (Feis.)
T
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
Gross private domestic investment240. Total, Q
241. Nonresidential fixed investment, total, Q
242. Nonresidential structures, Q
243. Producers' durable equipment, Q
244. Residential structures. Q
245. Change in business Inventories, Q
Current data for those series ore shown on page 66.
12
JANUARY
1970
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOWIg AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE
(lev.) fet)
P
I
(July)
(July) (Apr.)
P
I
IP
I
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
250. Net exports of goods and services, Q
+S-
252. Exports of goods and services, Q
253. Imports of goods and services. Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
JANUARY 1970
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A6 ] GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
T
Annual rate, biNton dollars current]
260. Federal, #•)», and local governments, Q
•
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
•
59
60
"!
-
61
62
63
—>.
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 67,
14
JANUARY
1970
!!€!»
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
274. Final s^lfiondufable goodt^i
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
) JANUARY 1970
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A8 1 NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(Nov.) (Oet)
P
If
(July)
(Aug.)
(Apr.)
(May) (Feb.)
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
280. Compensation of employees, Q
282. Proprietors' income, Q
284. Rental income of persons, Q
286. Corporate proms and inventory valuation adjustment,
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
16
JANUARY
1970
ItCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SAVING
(Nov.) (Pet)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
P
I
290, Gross saving (private and government)
292. Personal saving, Q
294 Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment, Q
296, Capital consumption
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
ltd)
JANUARY 1970
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart 81
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Get)
P I
(inly) (Apr.)
P
fMayJ (Feb.)
T
P
T
mage workweek, product** workers, manufacturing (hours)
4 Miricultural placements, ;i industries (ttwusarajs)
Accession ratt, imnufacturinj (per 100
%, .|Wkage weekly inttlal c^ Sta^
insuaoce (ttwesanrfs-inverted scale)
;
h ^£
1948 49
SO
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
Current data foi3 those ssorlos are shown on page 69.
18
JANUARY 1970
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
200*1
46. Help-wanted;a4ftising (index: 1957-59=100}
~jT
150-
150-,
140-
^
130-
establishments (at* late, bil. man-hours}
120-
7570-
^
65-
60-
on nonagri$ppl payrolls (millions)
C:-\\
80-|
757065- ^
£
60-
55-
50-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
JANUARY 1970
19
Section B
Bl
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators^Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
(lull)
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(Aug.)
(Mil) (Feb.)
P I
*|3, Unemployment rat0t total (percent-inverted scale]
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)
40. Unemployment rate, married males (percent-inverted scale)
Lagging Indicators
*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
1-
1948 49
!IO
51
52
93
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 11970
Current data for the:te series are shown on page 70.
20
JANUARY 1970
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
M)
P
(Ant)
T
Comprehensive Production
*200, GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit. dot.}
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. do!.)
*47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100]
*52. Personal income (ann. rate, Ml. dot.
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing
construction ann. rate, bil. do I.)
1948
49
62
50
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOTE: For thfs economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71,
BCII JANUARY
1970
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section
jChairt JBlQ PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-^Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
*56. Manufacturing and trade sates (bit. do I.)
700- 650-'
600550-
57. Final sates (series 200 minus series 245], Q (ann. rate, btl. dol.)
1948 49
50
51
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOTE: For this economic process (I.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet keen selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71,
22
JANUARY 1970
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Qct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
(May) (Feb.)
f
P
T
*12. Net business formation (index: 1957-59=1001
13, New business incorporations (thousands)
*6. New orders, durable goods industries (btl, (to!.)
and orders, plant and equipment (bil. dol.)
J
r
1948
49
50
J
51
52
JULJJI;
53 54
,.,.;... l JJul
55 56 57 58
.
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
1970
*This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced y»ithout written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 72,
JANUARY
1970
23
Section B
Chart
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B3 I FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) fttet.)
P
(July)
P
T
(July} (Apr.)
(Aue.)
T
(May! (Feb.)
P T
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dol.)
24. New orders, macttnery and equipmentindustries (ML dol.)
Construction contracts, commercial fid industrial (mil sq. ft.
I Private nonfami houslig starts"|ann. rateTliions; MCO moving avg,-5-tefm|
^ 1111
permits, privati heitsng units (index: 1957-59=100]
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
* It a copyrighted tier I as used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from
Current dots for those series are shown on pages 72 and 73.
24
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
JANUARY
1970
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(May) (Fib.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
f I
(Aug.)
T
orders, durable goods industries (fail, dol
97, Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bit, dot.)
Lagging Indicators
30!
80«
70 •
Q (ann, rate, bit. doi.)
*61. Business e;*penditufie$,
6050 -=
40*
x-\
30120 100«
and equipment tales and business construction
lann. rate, b*. doi.)
60 •
40 J
^L i .
1948
49
§0
51
52
., jiJuh-- •.. „ L _ - JJULJV
53
54
55
56
57
58
'
juuL
59
60
61
63
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
IM.JP JANUARY 1970
25
Sectioih B
Cs
Chart B4
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (0(1)
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
246, Change in business inventories, aN industries. Q (arm. rate, btl. del.)
Gfcange in book vafcwjj manufacturing and trade inventories
pti.tate, bil. dol; MCD moving avg-5-term)
hrchased materUfts* percent of companies reporting higher inventories
manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies
moving avg,-6-tsnn]
materials, percent of companies
60 days or longer
1048 49
§0
51
51
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
6i
63
64
65
66
67
6S
69 19 0
Current data for these series are shown on page 74,
26
JANUARY 1970
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT~Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Fib.)
T
P
T
100-,
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries
75-
5025J
25. Change in united orders, durable goods industries
(bit. do).; MCO rawing avg.-4-term) >
0-
Lagging Indicators
J
160-
140 - .
*71. Book value, manufacturing: and trade inventories (bit. dot.)
120-.
vatue of manufactures' inventories, finished goods foil
~'™ "*
1
A .uJLJUi _ I'
1948 49 50
j. _ _ ' j, ^ ' . ! 'ULjLiuL , _ _ _ . i
51 52 53
54 55 56
., JuUi •
57 58
59
j
JUJL '
60 61
{
62
63
64
65
67
68
69 1970
NOTE: For this economic process (I.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
BCII
JANUARY 1970
27
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Section B
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
hart
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) ((let)
P
(July)
(July) {Apr.}
(Aug.)
P
T
T
P
(May) {Feb.}
T
P
T
Sensitive Commodity Prices
/\
&
160
*23. Industrial materials prices (Max: 1957-59=100]
10080-
!^U«i
tjBfoillfltorri
^• ' i
:
i
;!
i
,
120-
:'.
,;
;:
_ n,/VA
i
1
!;'
^A/^/^^ ^D
'
'*19. Sl^ Pf ices, 500 common stoats ( Wex: 1941-43=10)
,>
100-
80-
jS
605040-
*16. Corporate pruftts atter taxes, Q (ann. rate, bit. (toil
30-
16-
22. Ratto, profits (after taxes) to income originatkig,
141210-
'x ^^
E ^
110-1
*I7. Ratio, prte^ to unit taoor cost, wanufacturing (index: 1957-59-100)
100*
90J
.!i A Jl 1'Jl JUl ;i .;. ,'l ;; ;; ;; ;.. a :, ,' r..,; !, ; .'.jiJUUL
1948 4§
50
51
82
S3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
©3
64
65
66
67
68
69 1S70
Current data for these ssrles are shown on page 75.
28
JANUARY 1970
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
120*
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
115110-
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1957-59-100)
10510095-
120115110-
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1957-59 100)
105100959085-
Lagging Indicators
0.80-1
0.7568. Labor costicur. dol.) per unit of real corporate gross product, 0 (dollars)
0.700.65*
125120115*62. lafaoi cost per unit of oulyut, manufacturing jintiex: 1957-59±1001
110105*
100-
V
95 -
908580-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
"I JANUARY 1970
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Section B
Chart B6
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
I MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
{iul« (Apr,)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
Flows of Miney and Credit
Change in money supply and time deposits (ann. rate, percent;
MCD movmg avg.-6-term)
+15-,
+10+§-
0-
85t Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
33. Change in mortgage debt (arm. rate, bit dol.)
debt (ann. rate, bit. dol]
112. Change m business loans [ann. rate, nil dot;
MCD moving avg.-6-term)
1948
49
50
51
Sa
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
€0
61
63
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for those norles are shown on page 76.
30
JANUARY 1970
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
Q (ann. rate, bil. del.)
i 1tO. Total private bor
of business failures (mil. dol.- inverted scale
MCD moving avg.-6-term]
39. Delnquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans
(percent-inverted scate)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
ItCII
JANUARY 1970
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
LchartJEWBj
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
F
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
93. Free reserves (bil. dot.-inverted scale)
116. Corporate bond yields [percent]
115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
1948 49
50
51
52
93
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these stories are shown on pago 77.
32
JANUARY 1970
IICII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
120100-
80-
68. Consumer installment debt (bil. dot]
60-
40100-
80-
60-
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bit dol.j
40-
9-,
8-
7-
6-
*67 Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)
59-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current dotq for these series ore shown on page 77.
licit
JANUARY 1970
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart
COMPOSITE INDEXES
B7
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(J«W
P
(July) (Apr)
(Aug.)
T
P
(Mayj (Feb.)
T
P
T
810. Twelve leading k>dk:atorsr revwse trend adjusted
6,10,12, 16,17, 10, 23, 29, 31,113)
Activity serin 141, 43, 47, 52, 56)
830.
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
^jto lagging Nxffcatirs (series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72)
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
/
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data tor theso series arc ihown on page 78. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-( and lags ( + } In months from reference turning dote*.
* Reverse trend adjusted Index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the Index of 5 coincident Indicators.
34
JANUARY 1970
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES— Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
employment adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5)
Capital investment ewimitments (series 6,10,12,29)
[fivwrtor^ investment and purchasing (series 23, 25, 31, 37)
(series 16,17,19)
flows (series 33f 85,112,113}
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Currant data for these series are shown on page 78.
JANUARY
1970
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Ncv.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May] (Feb.)
T
P
T
*1. Average workweek, production worths, manufacturing (hours)
State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
'1 Average weekly initial
*12. Net business formation (index:
orders, durable goods industries u, dot.)
*10 Contracts and outers, plant
New building iJerrnits. private housi^ unit s (index: 1957-b!MUOJ
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these scries arc shown on pages 69, 72, and 73.
36
JANUARY
1970
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
23. industrial materials prices index:
*19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bit. dot}
*17. Ratio, price to a«t labor cost, marmfacturir^ (iiHtex: 1957-58=100}
llment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
>113. Change in const*
''
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 75, and 76.
JANUARY
1970
37
Section IB
[chai
Chart B8
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Del)
P
T
(July}
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
^200. "IMP in current dollars, Q &
T
ra^bl dolj
47. Industrial prtxiuctkm (index
52. PersonaJ income (arm. ran, bll. dot.)
*56. Manufacturing and trade
*54, Sites of retail stores (to), dol)
41. Employes on nonagrteuttufai payrote (miions)
Unemptoymeflt rate. totaMpercent-irrvarted scate)
.JlJULJL
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
• •' . .'.., .:
:
55
57
56
JLjL"
58
: '- - ,
59
- JlJlJL; . . ' . . . .
60
61
62
63
64
85
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these icrloi arc shown on pages 70 and 71.
38
JANUARY 1970
BUI
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
*6t, Bus&ess expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q [ann. rate, bl dol.)
*71. Baofc value, manufactory and trade inventories (bil. dol.)
*S
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufactaring (index: 1957-59-100)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
*67.Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 70, 73, 74, 75, and 77.
ItCII
JANUARY 1970
39
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl
(Inly)
AGGREGATE SERIES
(May)
P
(Apr.)
T
(Feb.)
T
90-
90
for new plant
afl industries, Q
*0-
eoa) Actual expenditures
(ann, rate, bil. dol.)
30 J
110 i
(b) Sscond anticipations as
percent of actual fpercent]
105
.ml?
110-1
(c) First anticipates as
ercent of actual (percent]
1957
58
Current data for thi
40
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
ri I.T
67
68
69
100-
70
1971
5 shown on page 79.
JANUARY
1970
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(May)
|FeD.)
T
412, Manufacturers' inventories, total
book value, Q (bil. dot.)
30 -
414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories:
percent considered high less percent
considered low, Q (percent)
r
20-
EJ
10*
0-
416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
40-
30 J
1957
5S
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
6S
69
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
JANUARY 1970
41
Section! C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
[Chart
Chart Cl
Cl [
(July)
P
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
(May)
P
(Apr.)
T
(Feb.)
T
income a year ago, Q
! 4m Cmnt income
60-,
so
40-
—
30 =
20—
„
10-
20-,
hi income of house^s, Q
(a) Mean probity of increase n family income (percent)
15
(b) Increase less decrease (percent)
.._
10-
(c) Mean probaWrty of decrease in famiry income (percent)
—I
5-J
9-
Actual, 2-quartor moving avg.
IIU *
(d) Anticipations as percent of actual data {percent)
(|Q
Mi1rii
i
1051009S-
90-=
tm ^
100
90
..
..J'...jLjl
1957
!
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
Current data for thm.e tor lei are shown on page 79.
42
JANUARY
1970 IMLI)
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
Diffusion indexes:
(ptetted at
New orders, manufacturng (4-Q span)
profits, manufacturing and trade |4-Q span}1
0444. Ket sates, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
1957
58
59
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Ire.
JANUARY 1970
43
L
Sectibn C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
C2
(May)
P
km mm:
(Fell
percent
too-?
level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
HH, ifting prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
Selling priceS) manufacturing (4-Q span)
., JM$^; Selling prices, wholesale trade
Ml. filing prices, retail trade
59
60
61
61
63
64
65
66
67
Current data for those series are shown on page 80.
'This is o copyrighted serJes used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Brodstreet, Inc.
44
JANUARY 1970
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES~Con.
(July)
P
(May)
P
(Apr.)
T
(Feb.)
T
Mffusion indexes: percent rismgjl
plotted at terminal quarter) |
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures
+0.548D. Change in freight carloadings (4-Q span)
(millions of cars)
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
licit
JANUARY 1970
45
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FOREIGN TRADE
(Nov.) (Del)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
:
7T '
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
+1.0-1
500, M#$}tg$lsft trade balance (M. MllCD moving a^-e-tefm)
506. Export #*KS, durables ex^inotof vehicles
(b.l. (t^iiCD moving avg.f^lerm)
:
Uuui. ;-.iLii JMLiJL,;uL,,,.jLJ^tJ^ili J:
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
.
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
...
65
.
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series ore shown on page 62.
46
JANUARY 1970
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
U.S. Balance of Payments, Q
520. Liquidity balance basis
(Change In U.S official reserve assets and change
522. Official settlements basis
i
[Change to U,S official reserve assets, and change
li tKiuid lidl)ilUi
to foreign monetary official agencies)
Annual rate, billion dollars
Excess of receipts (inflow)
ED Excess of payments (outflow]
525. Net capital movements, liquidity balance basis1
(outflow (-) left scale)
/
\ >-•
*
250. Balance on goods and services
(surplus (+) right scale)
520. Liquidity balance
527. Net capital movements,
official settlements basis1
(ouTTiow |-| ten scaie
522. Official settlements balance
250. Balance on goods and services
(surplus (+) right scale)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to I960 except for series 520.
1
1ncludes unilateral transfers and errors and omissions.
ItCII
JANUARY
1970
47
Section D
••MMMMMMH
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
[jChart D2 1] BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Sepvices-Con.
36-
530. Liquid liabilities to alt foreigners, outstanding at end of period
1C-
12-
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official agencies, outstanding at em) of period
4-
24 T
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of period
20-
16-
12.
1948 49
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
(S3 64
65
66
67
68
69 197©
Current dcrtct lor those series are shown on page 83. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.
JANUARY
1970
IICII
Section D
Chart
D2
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
-1 96Annual rate/billion dollars
S2<
48 Excess of receipts
CD Excess of payments
44 -
40Goods and services25i~Exports
401
250 Balance on goods and services
32-
Merchandise, adjusted-
24-
20-
18 =
12-
Investment income, military sales
and expenditures, and other services
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
JANUARY 1970
49
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
[chart D 2 | BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
Annual rate, billon dollars
,w) n
Excess of receipts (infkr
Excess of payments (outflow)
itflow)
Investment income
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments
Travel 4-
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
544.
4. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sale? and expenditures-
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
4-
546. Military sales to foreigners
Transportation and other services-
4-
549. Payments
1948 49
SO
51
52
53
§4
95
96
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
6S
66
67
68
©0 Ii70
Current data for these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to I960,
50
JANUARY 1970
KCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Annual rate, billion dollars]
Capital Movements Plus Government
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
^ Excess of receipts (inflow)
EZ3 Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments-
561. U.S. investments abroad
\
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
0-
-4-
575, Banking and other capital transactions, net
0-
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
ItCII
JANUARY 1970
51
Section 0
r~:
^Chart
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D3 J FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
I
(liilfl
P
ACTIVITIES
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
Receipts and Expenditures {
+201
. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.j
, federal receipts, national income and product accmjnts, Q |ann. rate, Ml. dot.)
_.
„ .. _u-,__^_
602. Federal expenditures, national tocome and product accounts, Q (
1948 49
SO
51
52
S3
§4
55
S6
57
58
50
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1,970
Current data for theio series are shown on page 85.
52
JANUARY
1970
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
100 T
908070 4
80 =
264. National defense purchases, Q (ann. rate; bil. dol.]
90 J
9876-
616. Defense Department obligations, total til. dot.; MOD moving avg.-6-tem)
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term]
647. New orders, defense products industries
(bil. dot; MCD moving avg.-6-term]
defense
products
(bil. dol.)
1J
51
625. Military contract awardsjn U.S.
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
JANUARY
1970
53
Sectiori D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
lltav.) (Oel|
P
T
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for those series are shown on page 86.
54
JANUARY
1970
KCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
•(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(My) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Index: 1957-59 = 100
750. All commodities
751. Processed foods and feeds
752. Farm products
1948 49
50
51
§2
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
SO 61
62
63
64
$5
66
67
6S
1970
Current data for these series ore shown on page 86.
BCD
JANUARY 1970
55
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart El 1 ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(May) (Fob.)
F T
Grass National ProtfDct tn 1958 dottars, Q
n. rate, ML dol.)
— - 44S-
480-
1S4S 49
SO
91
92
53
S4
5S
Si
57
58
§9
SO
61
62
63
64
6§
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for those scries are shown on page 87.
'Trend lino of 3-1/8 percent per year through middle of 1955 from !*( quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter J965, and 4 percent thereafter.
56
JANUARY 1970
KCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E2
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(J*)
(Nov.) pet)
P
I
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.j
I
F
(May) (Fib.)
T
f
I
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing, Q (percent]
, Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
~-j
,
«- . _
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,*
manufacturers' durable goods industries
653. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 88.
KCII JANUARY
1970
57
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
[Jchart EsT] ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.
(Nw.) (Get)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
—-1 0.10-f
Ratio, personal saving to disposable persona* income, Q
855. Ratio, nonagricurtural jab openings unfilled to number of persons unemployed
858, Outprt psc man-hour, total private rxmfarm, Q (index: 1957-59=100)
856. Real average hourly earnings, production workers
manufactirti
Real spendable average weekly earnings, nanagricultural
production or ixmsupefvisofy workers (1957-59 dollars
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing, Q (percent)
1948 49
EiO
SI
52
53
94
55
§6
57
§8
S9
60
68
60 1970
Currant data for that9 tertes are shown on page 86.
58
JANUARY 1970
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Fab.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Percent rising
01, Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-21 industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span----)
D6. New orders, durable goods industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
-f
•*—-
^^^
_
,— _ , , , ,
|
™,
^.-»*.»,-«
,
,»..,W «j, «u ~"J"JC^"- •—•
*
^
50--
!|
Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 industries, NICB [3-Q span^., 1-Q sparw.)
034. Profit, FHCB of NY, percent reporttjg Higher profits-atout 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span)
019. Stock pricei» fSO contaion stocks-|7 industries |9-mo, span—, 1-mo. span-—)
pnces-13 indicia] materials (9-mo. span— f 1-mo. span---}
deeming; 9~mo> span-*-, 1-mo. span-—)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 89 and 90.
itcn
JANUARY 1970
59
Section E
E3
Ll
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Nev.) (Ost.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Fit)
P I
(July) (Apr.)
P T
D41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls-30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—]
100
50 J
D47. Industrial production-24 industries |6-mo. span — , 1-mo. span-—]
SO-
D58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods-22 industries |6-mo. sp;m~, 1-mo. span
5@-
D54. Sates of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. $ptm—, 1-mo. span—I
1948 49
50
SI
52
53
54
55
56
§7
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
(18 69 197©
Current dtjto for thete series are shown on page 91.
60
JANUARY
1970
ItCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E5
RATES OF CHANGE
(July)
(Apr.)
P
T
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
Percent change, annual rate-
\.
£
S?fee
200. Jc) GNP in currenlLgollars |1-Q span)
.^x
+12
+8 HI
-4
205. |cj GNPJi constant dollar^ [1:Q spanj^
+12
+84-4^
1*mo. span (b|
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
54. Sales of retail stores
52. Personal income
47. Index ef industrial production
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
A^^-^^^X
781. Index of consumer prices, all items
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
to locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Index—Series Finding Guide,* pp. MS-and 114
UP
JANUARY 1970
61
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart Fl
CONSUMER PRICES
(tyv.) (itet)
p
(**)
I
P
(Aug.)
T
P
Way) (Feb.)
P T
T
U fji.j J JLJlJljULJlljl.H .Ji JlJUuLJLjlJUi, jL.Ji.JLJ;jLjl.Jl..;i,Jl.JLiLJlJLJLJlJL.iL.jLRJlJL..
1943 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
32
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current dam for those series aro shown on page 96.
62
JANUARY 1970
BCII
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Section F
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production47. United States
1948 49
50
51
52
§3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
€4
66
67
68
®9 197©
Current data for these series are shown on page 99.
ItCIl JANUARY 1970
63
Section F
[ Chart
49
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Faf] STOCK PRICES
50
31
S2
S3
54
5S
56
S7
S8
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current dtrta for those series are shown on page 100,
64
JANUARY 1970
IICII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
200., Current dollars
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
ML doL)
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. doL)
205. Constant (1958) dollars
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. doL)
210. Implicit price deflator
a. Total
b. Difference c. Percent
change
at annual
(Ann. rate,
rate
bil. dol.)
b. Difference
(Index:
1958=100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
729.5
743.3
755.9
770.7
+19.5
+13.8
+12.6
+14.8
+10.8
+7.6
+6.8
+8.0
649.1
655.0
660.2
668.1
+12.5
+5.9
+5.2
+7.9
+8.0
+3.6
+3.2
+4.8
112.4
113.5
114.5
115.4
+0.9
+1.1
+1.0
+0.9
+3.2
+4.0
+3.6
+3.2
774.2
783.5
800.4
816.1
+3.5
+9.3
+16.9
+15.7
+2.0
666.5
670.5
678'. 0
683.5
-1.6
+4.0
+7.5
+5.5
-0,8
+2.4
+4.4
+3.2
116.2
116.9
118.1
119.4
+0.8
+0.7
+1.2
+1.3
+2.8
+2.4
+4.0
+4.4
835.3
858.7
876.4
892.5
+19.2
+23.4
+17.7
+16.1
+9.6
+11.2
+9.8
+7.2
693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5
+12.5
+7.0
+5.7
+5.6
+7.2
+4.0
+3.2
120.5
121.7
122.9
124.2
+1.1
+1.2
+1.2
+1.3
+3.6
+4.0
+4.0
+4.4
908.7
924.8
942.8
P953.1
+16.2
+16.1
+18.0
p+10.3
+7.2
+7.2
+7.6
P+4.4
723.1
726.7
730.6
P730.5
+4.6
+3.6
+3.9
p-0.1
+2,4
125.7
127.3
129.0
P130.5
+1.5
+1.6
+•1.7
P+1.5
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
+4.8
+8.8
+8.0
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
+8.4
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1
Year
and
quarter
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT»Con.
+4.8
+5.2
+5.2
p+4.8
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
215. Per capita 217. Per capita
GNP, current
GNP, constant
dollars
(1958) dollars
(Ann, rate,
dollars)
+2.0
+2.0
pO.O
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
220. National
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
3,720
3,780
3,833
3,895
3,310
3,331
3,347
3,377
603.2
615.0
626.9
637.3
570.3
580.7
592.9
605.0
499.9
506.0
515.9
525.6
453.5
454.7
461.2
466.1
2,549
2,574
2,616
2,656
2,313
2,313
2,339
2,356
3,903
3,940
4,014
4,080
3,360
3,372
3,400
3,418
639.3
646.2
658.5
672.0
615.2
622.2
634.5
645.9
534.4
541.6
550.3
559-8
471.6
476.0
479.4
483.7
2,694
2,724
2,760
2,799
2,378
2,394
2,404
2,419
4,168
4,274
4,350
4,418
3,459
3,513
3,538
3,557
688.8
707.4
724.1
737.3
664.3
680.1
696.1
711.2
575.0
587.4
593.4
604.3
492.1
497.4
498.9
502.1
2,869
2,924
2,946
2,991
2,455
2,476
2,477
2,485
4,488
4,556
4,633
P4,670
3,571
3,580
3,590
P3,579
751.3
765.7
780.6
(NA)
724.4
740.5
756.5
P766.9
610.2
622.0
639.0
P647.1
502.6
506,2
514.1
P5U.5
3,014
3,065
3,340
P3,171
2,482
2,494
2,526
p2,521
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "n", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
KCII
JANUAftY 1970
65
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
230. Total in
current dollars
231, Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
232. Durable goods, 233. Durable goods, 231 Automobiles
total except autos,
in current dollars
total in current
in current dollars
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
237. Services in
current do liars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quartet...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
457. a
461.9
471.2
474.5
415.3
415.1
421.3
420.7
71.2
68.5
71.3
71.9
44.4
44,5
46.2
46^5
26.8
24.0
25.1
25.4
202.6
206.4
209.6
209.1
133.9
186.9
190.2
193.5
480.9
489.8
495.7
502.6
424.4
430.5
431.9
434.3
70.0
73.5
73.3
75.2
46,9
47.6
47 0 9
50.0
23.1
25.9
25.4
25.2
213.2
214.4
215.8
216.8
197.7
201. a
206.6
210.6
520.6
530.3
544.9
550.7
445.6
449.0
458.2
457.6
79.5
81.8
85.8
86.3
51.1
52,6
54,1
54,9
28.4
29.2
31.7
31.4
226.1
228.5
233.3
234.3
215.1
220.0
225.8
230.1
562.0
572.8
579-8
P589.2
462.9
466.2
466.5
P468.5
88.4
90.6
89.8
p89.6
57,5
59.2
30.9
31-4
32.1
P32.0
238.6
542.1
245.1
P249.4
235.0
240.1
244.9
1967
First quarter..
Second quarter..
Third quarter*..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter-.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quaiter ,
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
57.7
P57.6
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
anc
quarter
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
244. Residential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. doL)
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth qua-ter..
117-5
122.4
119.6
126.2
78.8
80.3
83.0
84.2
28.6
28.2
29.0
28.2
50.2
52.1
54.0
56.0
27.4
26.0
24.7
22.1
+11.3
+16.2
+11.9
+19.9
113.6
109.4
117.7
123.3
83.3
83.0
83.5
85.0
29.0
27.2
27.8
27.8
54.2
55.8
55.7
57.2
21.4
23.1
26.5
28.8
+3.4
+7.8
+9.5
119.4
126.6
125.2
133.9
89.1
86.4
88.1
91.5
29.8
28.3
29.0
30.1
59.4
58.1
59.1
61.4
28.6
30.3
29.9
31.9
135.2
137.4
143.3
95.3
32.3
32,1
34,7
P34.4
63.0
65.7
33.3
32.7
31.4
P31.6
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
+9.0
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
97.8
101.1
p!03.0
+1.6
+9.9
+7.2
+10.5
+6.6
+6.9
+10.7
pt-7.8
NOTE: Seines are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised: V. preliminary;
"c"t estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
66
JANUARY 1970
ltd*
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
Q FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
252. Exports
of goods and
services
253. Imports
of goods and
services
260. Total
262. Federal
264. National
defense
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.).
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)
1966
First Quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1967
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. . . *
1968
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+6.2
+5,6
+4.4
+4.9
42.2
42.7
43.7
44.8
36.0
37:i
39.3
39.9
148.0
153.4
160.7
165.2
72.8
75.6
80.5
82.1
55.3
58.5
63.3
65.6
75.2
77.7
80.1
83.0
+5.4
+5.8
+5.6
+3.8
45.8
45.9
46.3
46.7
40.4
40.1
40.7
42.8
174.2
178.5
181.3
186.4
87.8
90.3
91.3
93.5
69.9
71.9
73.0
74.6
86.4
88.1
90.0
92.9
+1.9
+3.4
+3.6
+1.2
47.7
50.7
53.4
50.6
45.9
47.3
49.7
49.4
193.4
198.4
202.5
206.7
96.3
99.0
100.9
101.9
76.1
77.9
78.8
79.3
97.1
99.4
101.7
104.8
+1.5
+1.6
+2.7
p+2.6
47.6
57.1
57.8
P59-1
46.1
55.5
55.2
P56.4
210.0
212.9
217.0
P218.9
101.6
.100.6
103.2
P102.7
79.0
78.5
80.3
P79.2
108.5
112.3
113.8
pU6.2
Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN C U R R E N T DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First Quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. . . .
1967
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
280. Compensation
of employees
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
INCOME COMPONENTS
0 NATIONAL
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
274, Final sales 275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
282. Proprietors'
income
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
284. Rental income
of persons
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
142.2
142.6
148.1
151.8
+8.2
+10.6
+10.2
+13.2
217.6
220.9
225.3
225.4
+3.1
+5.6
+1.7
+6.7
420.1
430.9
441.4
449.7
62.1
61.2
61.1
60.8
'19.6
19.8
20.1
20.3
151.9
158.3
157.7
160.0
+4.2
+1.5
+4.4
+5.6
230.7
234.2
235.5
235.9
+4.7
+1.8
+3.4
+3.9
456.2
461.1
470.7
481.7
60.8
61.7
62.6
62.3
20.6
20,8
20.9
21.0
166.4
168.9
173.7
176.6
+1.9
+6.8
+5.1
+7.4
246.5
250.4
256.1
256.4
-0.3
+3.1
+2.1
+3.1
495.1
507.0
519.8
532.3
63.2
63.6
64.1
64.1
21.1
21.2
21.2
21.4
181.6
185.5
187.8
P189.7
+4.8
+4.9
+7.6
P+-7.4
259.7
264.1
267.4
P271.5
+1.8
+2.1
+3.1
pK).4
546.0
558.2
571.9
P580.9
64.6
66.5
67.3
P66.7
21,5
21.6
21.7
pBl.8
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers arefor
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary:
n
"e , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
KCII
JANUARY 1970
67
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
0
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Qj SAVING.IN CURRENT DOLLARS
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valu*
ation adjustment
288. Net interest
290. Gross saving
292. Personal
saving
294. Undistributed
corporate prof its
plus inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption
allowances
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarts
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
82.1
82.5
83.7
19.9
21.0
21.8
22.8
121.0
126.3
123.5
128.8
29.6
31.2
31.6
37.7
26.2
26.8
26.9
29.6
6a.5
63.5
64.4
65.3
+2.7
4-4.7
+0,6
78.3
78.3
79.1
81.1
23.5
24.3
25.1
25.9
117.5
113.6
119.9
125.6
40.0
37.7
40.7
43.1
24.8
24.1
24.6
25.5
66. a
67.9
69.2
70.4
-U.I
-16.0
-24.6
-13.4
82.5
88.2
90.6
90.3
26.7
27.5
28.4
29.3
120.5
128.8
129.1
135.4
39.9
42.3
33.2
3B.O
20.4
24.1
25.6
23.6
71.7
73.0
73.7
74.6
-11.5
-10.8
-3.5
.
-0.9
89.5
•89.2
•88.3
29.8
30.3
30.9
138.5
142.7
150.2
32.5
33.3
43.1
r21.S
r20.8
r21.2
(NA)
P31.6
75.9
77.2
78.6
P79.9
zn8.3
rill.4
IH7.4
(NA)
81.5
-3.8
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
I960
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First Quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
(NA)
P41.6
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised;" p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; V t anticipated; and W NA W , not available.
68
JANUARY 1970
BCD
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS .
Qj EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
*1. Average work- 4. Nonagricultural
week of production placements, all
workers, manufac- industries1
turing 1
(Hours)
(Thous.)
2. Accession rate,
manufacturing1
(Per 100 employees)
*5. Average weekly 3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
initial claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
programs 2'
(Per 100 employees)
(Thous.)
49. Nonagricultural
job openings unfilled1
46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
(Thous.)
(1957-59-100)
1967
January,
February
March
41.0
40.3
40.5
512
500
492
4.6
4.3
4.1
196
231
256
1.3
1.5
1.7
395
379
366
189
184
April . . .
May
June
40.5
40.4
40.4
485
481
483
4.2
4.6
4.5
259
236
231
1.5
1.4
1.4
353
351
352
185
184
184
July
August
September
A.O 5
j,fl 7
A7A
L L
1, l
?^l
/,n ej
;.do
1 L
-a
1O
1
-L. J^
October
November
December
40.7
1968
January
February
March
LO 7
L() 7
/,rti
191
QCf)
T ftT
QC;
JJ**
i
rt7
JLtJ^
^Al
1
ft*7
.Lof
^O
Q
on o
917
476
4.5
220
1 A7
/i7^
209
90A,
1.3
12
12
358
L %
L L
WL
1LR
188
206
196
1.3
1.3
1Q1
191
1.
T &7
40.7
40.8
478
471
481
4.5
4.5
4 1
194
1 3
359
363
371
April
May
June
40.1
40.9
40.9
487
475
486
4.7
4.6
4.5
193
195
194
1.1
1.3
1.1
380
394
386
197
197
197
July
August
September
40.9
40.7
41.0
520
477
478
4.7
4.6
4.7
189
199
194
1.2
1.2
1.2
375
367
376
204
208
218
October
November
December
1969
January
. ..
February . .
March
40.9
40.8
40.8
466
454
443
4.8
4.6
4.7
188
190
190
1.2
1.1
1.1
374
372
373
223
222
225
40.6
40.1
40.9
448
459
431
4.9
4.6
4.6
179
186
184
1.1
1.1
1.2
372
375
365
224
230
231
April
May
June
40.8
40.7
40.7
452
427
460
4.9
4.8
377
387
383
233
232
228
July
August
September
40 7
40.6
40.8
446
427
426
L £
L ^
4.8
October
November
December
40.5
40.5
P40.6
405
393
P376
r4.7
D4.4
(NA)
40.2
5..0
D 176
180
201
TQ7
TQA
201
H> 1.0
1.1
1.1
i v
1 -\
12
r>r\<2
rl.3
214
210
pi. 3
(NA)
qcd
•pQj
I
i
^4o
Q Ji
JJ/4-0
qy,q
—ooo
r_p_?o
P294
194
onrr
2<! (
224
E) 235
227
200
£4.
p2l6
NOTE1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated'by H>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14f 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93}f current low values are indicated by
H)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 1, high value (41.6) reached in Feb. 1966: Series
4, high value (586), in May 1962; Series 2, high value (5.2), in Mar. 1966; Series 49, high value (437), in July 1966. ''Data,
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published lay source agency.
JANUARY 1970
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
^^M
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con,
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
and
month
(Ann. rate, bit.
man-hours)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
(Thous.)
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
(Percent)
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
1967
January
February
March .
131.36
130.64
130.73
65,342
65,379
65,459
70, 137
70,188
69,935
3.7
3.7
3.7
2.3
2.4
2.6
1.8
1.7
1.3
0.6
0.6
0.6
April ...
June .
130.36
130.74
131.10
65,469
65,563
65,747
70,144
69,804
70,407
3.8
3.9
3.9
2.6
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.6
0.6
0.6
July
August
September . . .
131.16
131.77
131.9S
65,799
66,016
66,003
70,649
70,721
70,929
3.9
3.8
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
October
November
December
131.75
133.02
132.79
66,083
66,600
66,734
71,023
71,135
71,293
4.2
3-8
2.3
2.3
1.8
1.8
0.6
0.6
3.7
2.2
1.7
0.6
January.,
February ,
March
131.60
133.29
133 . 53
66,720
67,165
67,286
71,124
71,566
71, 786
'3.6
'3.7
1.7
0.6
3,7
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.7
1.7
0.6
0.6
April
June
133.54
134.21
134.75
67,466
67,550
67,816
71, 737
72,027
72,156
3.5
3.6
3.7
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.6
1.6
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
July
August
September
135.24
135.57
135.75
67,945
68,088
68,195
72, 195
72,222
72,349
3.7
3.5
3.6
2.3
2.3
2.1
1.6
1.6
1.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
October
November
December
135.39
135.83
136.19
68,427
68,664
68,875
72,477
72,682
72,923
3.6
3.4
3.3
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
January
February .
March
137.07
137.08
138.44
69,199
69,487
69,710
73,477
73,848
74,035
3-3
E> 3-3
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.4
1.4
0.4
0.4
[H}1.4
[H)0.4
April
May
June
138.42
139.15
139.43
69,789
70,013
70, 300
73,941
73,460
73,966
3-5
3.5
3.4
H> 2.0
2.1
1.5
1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
July
August
September
T3O ;,A
7O 2V7
7/i ^9?
ni. ccq
*3 o
o n
16
I K
May
1%8
May
1969
October ,
November
December
fO\
M)
1
AH 1 ft
-U4-U.XO
7D ^nn
T qO &rj
J-J7* Of
fjf)
Y»i3o an
rl39 99
nl^Q 75
u
r > -?yu
QQPi
r70 651
@>r 70*653
o70 639
74,ooy
rj 1
AAQ
7A. 993
75 068
(H)75 274
3.4
3 6
3
C
.;>
i f\
4.0
2.0
2
fj
1 T
X.
f
o ^
O • ye
O • ye
0 5
0 5
0.5
3 9
3 L
2 2
2 3
17
1 6
3.4
2.3
16
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © , Current high values are
indicated by @) • for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[H>.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
arid "NA", not available.
1
DatE exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
70
JANUARY 1970
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
2J PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
TIMING CLASS ....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR $
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Production
*200. Gross national product
in current dollars
*205. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive Income
*47. Index of
industrial production
(1957-59-100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
53. Wages and *56. Manufacsalaries in min- turing and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
57. Final sales *54. Sales of
(series 200
retail stores
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
C1)
1967
January
February
March
774.2
666.5
158.3
156.7
156.6
612.8
614.9
617.9
162.7
161.4
161.2
88,078
87,323
156.7
155 6
155.7
619 3
621 2
626 i
161 2
160 9
161 7
87 656
88 016
89 184
780 2
87,632
765.2
i
25,828
25,478
25,758
April
May
June
783 5
July
August.
September
800.4
678.0
156.4
158.3
156.8
630.4
635.2
637.8
163.2
165.0
165.1
88, 508
89,967
90, 113
792.6
26 325
26 298
26,899
816 1
683 5
157.2
159 8
162 . 1
639.0
6/1.5 6
653 o
165.0
168 4
170 2
89,072
go 770
92 147
806 6
26,129
?6 ^Q6
26 ^L5
835.3-
693.3
rl6l.5
rl62.5
rl63.3
656.3
664.6
671.9
170.4
173.6
174.3
93,184
93,758
94,463
833.6
27,043
27 449
27,996
858.7
705.8
rl63.0
rl64.9
rl66.0
674.2
680.2
685.9
174-3
177.1
177.9
94, 552
96,069
97,423
848.8
27,791
28,158
28,320
876.4
712.8
rl66,5
rl65.1
rl65.9
691.0
696.1
701.1
179.0
179.7
181.8
98,368
97,083
•98,549
869.2
28,674
28,760
28,316
892.5
718.5
rl66 . 3
rl6? . 8
168.7
706 2
711.5
716 o
183.3
184.6
186.7
99, 675
100, 1/, 2
98, 671
882.0
28, 697
28, 806
28,347
January
February
March
908.7
723.1
169.1
170.1
171.4
718.7
723.9
730.7
187.1
187.6
190.7
100,137
101,390
101,510
902.1
28,989
29,289
28,916
April
May
June
924.8
726.7
>**
.171.7
172.5
173.7
735.3
740.0
746.1
192.1
193.1
195.3
102,352
103,232
104,127
917.9
29,442
29,386
29,371
July
August
September
QJ.P rt
E> 730.6
[H)174.6
174.3
173.9
751.4
757-5
760.7
196.0
198.1
198.6
104,201
104,644
105,903
P730.5
173.1
1-171.4
P170.9
763.7
r767.4
DP769.7
198.9
r!98.7
E>P199.8
[R>rl06,812
p!06,190
(NA)
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
670 5
July
August
September
October
November
December
25 QLQ
OK QAA
26 488
1969
October
November
December
[H)p953.1
932.0
••.
0>P945.3
29,090
29,346
29*259
[R> r29,620
r 29, 548
#9,531
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by H> * for series that move counter to movements in genera! business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk{*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart 88). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and"NA",
not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page in.
ItCII
JANUARY 1970
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
ffl
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process. ..,,..
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
FOrma 0
F ntnPmr±neSS
"™ Investment Commitments
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
13. Number of new
*12. Index of net
*6. Value of
business formation business incorpora- manufacturers'
new orders,
tions
durable goods
industries
(1957-59-100)
(Number)
(Bil.dol.)
(1957-59=100)
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil.dol.)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil. dol.)
1967
January. . . , „
February , .
March
102.2
103.2
103.3
16,703
15,987
16,244
23.94
24.15
23.54
126
1A3
149
5.92
6.13
6.16
5.72
April
May
June
103.7
105.0
108.1
16,760
17,627
17,799
24.04
25.30
25.77
138
154
164
6.00
6.03
6.40
5.72
July
August
September
108 4
16 ^00
17,674
2A Q2
25.88
1AQ
110 7
110.3
25.18
6 24
6.57
6.43
5.82
18,118
165
368
October..,,
November
December
110.6
112.7
113.8
18,000
18,403
18,168
25.68
25.85
28.06
171
168
166
6.66
6.42
6.43
5.74
5.31
5.37
5.50
1568
January
February
March
113.5
114.7
113.8
17,223
18,014
17,974
26.84
26.81
28.00
166
152
169
6.50
6.51
6.67
5.80
5.47
5.38
5.38
April
May
June
112.8
112.7
114.5
18,659
18,796
19,197
27.37
27.17
26.70
164
172
160
6.20
6.62
7.20
5.74
5.49
5.45
5.97
July
August
September
119.0
119.1
26.92
27.33
28 38
187
192
6.96
7.85
y
19, 530
20,011
on QftA
i £*q
7 20
12^ Q
12^ /.
125 ^
21 ^QA.
21 15S
20 292
30 28
2Q ??
2Q ^A
200
TA^
179
8 18
12^ 9
[H> 125 8
123.2
20 *>7A
22 199
21,353
29 68
30 48
29.70
OpiJ,
9O5
182
7 9A
7 84
April
May
June
123.9
123.1
23,467
23,230
23,711
30.94
30.00
29.17
183
210
186
July
August,
September
124 6
124 1
123 0
oo 771
22,991
on
i An
216
October
Novem'D0r
December
123.5
nl20 *>
(NA)
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
m
123,6
1
2 } 1L1
[H) r24, 683
1322 749
(NA)
rj7
^0 L&
[u\ 32 14
37*3
r31.80
r31.05
p29*42
H)218
195
178
7 2Q
7 79
5.07
5.02
4.98
5.08
5.09
5.38
*? "38
5.47
5.35
5.71
6.03
6.59
E
6 63
6^
6 09
6 24
6 65
6 20
6 §1
6.41
7,49
7.10
6.43
6.53
7.50
8.26
8.01
7.85
7 7^
ION
00
6 "55
7 60
8.' 65
fOS-nV 77
[H/ P f ' " '
8.00
ry 63
p8.03
fMAl
6 9L
lu\ 7 *3 ^
IH/
7-3?
6 45
r6.40
p6.!6
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by i); for series that move counter to movements in generaj business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45r and 93), current low values are indicated by
[H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V ( estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA :f , not available.
1
Th:ls is a eopfyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
72
JANUARY 1970
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
0 FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con,
....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
New Investment Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment Commitments
Investment Expenditures
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings1
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)
7. New private
nonfarm housing
units started
(Ann. rate, thous.)
96. Manufacturers'
*29. Index of new
unfilled orders,
private housing
units authorized by durable goods
local building
industries
permits
(1957-59=100)
(Bil.dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil. dol.)
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate, foil, dol.) (Ann. rate, foil, dol.)
1968
January
February
March
64.51
61.39
66.61
1,430
1,499
1,479
120.0
121.4
80.49
80.59
81.75
April
May
June
47.09
66.96
66.35
1,562
1,345
1,348
113.7
106.9
107.0
82.24
81.90
80.97
July
August
September
71.65
66.15
61.59
1,507
1,496
1,570
107.7
107.8
116.4
79.68
80.18
80.57
October
November
December
79.63
69.70
71.47
1,541
1,705
1,492
115.2
119.1
122.3
81.89
82.43
84.07
E>94.43
69.98
63.50
[H> 1,845
1,664
1,567
117.2
123.4
118.7
84.43
84.99
85.16
65.82
85.60
80.37
1,548
1,495
1,446
97.2
64.75
19.01
80.77
80.79
80.59
81.59
62.60
18.93
63.20
19.44
65.90
20.02
80.32
80.86
80.09
82.40
85.08
86.15
88.21
85.46
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
73.70
71.96
65.87
1,349
1,370
1,522
October
November
December
85.75
63.49
86.59
r 1,379
rl,277
pi, 240
D125.5
110.6
112.0
86.46
E>86.88
85.91
90.00
68.90
20.48
70.20
88.84
89.84
91.86
21.52
91.20
102.6
104.0
100.4
86.37
85.98
86.38
...
E>22.26
98.9
86.29
r86.24
p85.68
...
r99-5
P98.4
91.42
90.31
ED 72. 45
.. .
a73.30
(NA)
94.24
1)99.50
94.99
P93.27
(NA)
1970
January
February .
March
a76.85
* **
April
May
June
a78.25
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [0); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). TheV indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" f not available.
^•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
ItO
JANUARY 1970
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCFSS «
ffl
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
^^^
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
245. Change in *31. Change in
business 1
book value of
inventories
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total1
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
bil. dol.)
1967
January
February
March
LEADING INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
Inventories
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories1
(Percent
reporting)
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.1
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Production 32. Vendor
materials, com- performance,
panies reporting companies recommitments 601 porting slower1
days or longer©^ deliveries®
(Percent
(Percent
reporting)
reporting)
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1
*71. Manufacturing end
trade inventories, book
value
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods,
book value
(Bit. dol.)
+ 12.0
+5.7
+5.0
45
46
+2.6
+0.4
+0.6
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0.63
-0.34
-0.98
138. ia
+9^0
138.66
139.07
25.43
25.68
25.82
April . . , „ . . , .
May
June
+3^4
+6.6
+3.0
-0.7
37
40
43
-1.6
-0.4
-0.9
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.17
+0.65
+0.79
039.62
1394?
139.81
26.22
26.41
26.36
July
August
September . . ,
+7\B
+5.6
+6.8
+4.0
40
42
44
+1.4
+0.2
-2.2
61
66
61
41
43
44
+0.50
+0.12
+0.01
140.2?
140.84
HI. 18
26.43
26.61
26.64
October
November
December
+9^5
+2.5
+13.1
+H.6
45
46
54
+0.1
+0.6
+0.3
62
63
64
50
51
48
+0.88
+0.31
+1.45
141.39
1A2.48
043.69'
26.63
26.70
26.81
+1.*6
+4.0
+8.5
+4.1
55
53
52
-0.5
+1.2
+0.9
64
61
64
50
55
54
-0.09
+0.10
+1.16
144.03
144.74
U5.08
26.97
27.09
27.21
April
May
June
+9^9
+15.9.
+15.9
+8.5
51
55
59
+4.0
+4.7
+1.7
68
64
67
52
52
52
+0.48
-0.34
-0.93
146.40
047.73
140.44
27.35
27.59
27.64
July
August,
September
+7\2
+6.4
+10.2
+9.9
59
55
40
+3.5
+2.0
-0.9
68
66
60
56
46
46
-1.29
+0.49
+0.40
148.97
149.82
150.65
27.79
28.15
28.44
+16.4
+9.8
+11.2
42
44
43
+1.9
+10.5
62
60
60
52
60
56
+1.32
+0.54
+1.64
152.02
152.83
153.76
28.64
28.92
29.13
+6\6
•+3.9
+15.0
+12.8
43
47
49
-0.4
-0.4
+4.0
57
58
63
62
61
61
+0.36
+0.56
+0.16
154*09
155*34
156*40
29.08
29.41
29.61
+6.9
+12.9
+13.5
+7.9
49
52
50
+1.3
+2.8
-1.1
65
64
66
68
69
70
+1.30
+0.42
-0.97
157,48
158.60
159.26
29.9^
30.41
30.45
July
August
September
+i6.*7
+16.4
+12.3
+12.9
51
51
48
+1.1
-0.5
+0.7
59
63
65
66
68
66
+0.46
-0.38
tO.39
160,63
161.66
162.73
30 ,,66
30.96
31.0.0
October
November
December
pt-7.8
r-rlS.2
p+8.3
(NA)
53
57
47
+3.5
+0.1
(NA)
63
65
65
65
62
64
-0.09
r-0.05
p-0.56
rl64.25
[H)pl64.94
(NA)
31.21
IH) 31.54
(3U)
1968
January
February
March
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April .
May ,. ,
June
48
-2.2
+0.6
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®
Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in generaj business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
(B). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart 68). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
8eriee that reached their high valuea prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 245, high value (+19.8) reached in 4th quarter 1966;
Series 31, high value (+20.0), in June 1966; Series 37, high value (63), in Nov. 1964; Series 20, high value (+3.7), in Aug. 1966;
Series 26, high value (75), in Oct. 1966; Series 32, high value (86), in Mar. 1966; Series 25, high value (+1.&2), in Sopt. 1966.
74
JANUARY 1970 Kf <J)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Com- c. , t
modity Prices Mock ' 'rices
*19. Index of *16. Corpo- 22. Ratio of
stock prices, rate profits 1 profits to
ncome orig500 common after taxes
stocks©
nating, corDorate,x all
(Ann. rate, ndus.
(Percent)
(1957-59-100) (1941-43-10) bil. dol.)
*23. Index of
industrial
materials 1
prices®
1968
January ..«
February
March
. . . .
99. 3
99.5
100 1
89 09
April
May
June
93.3
96.1
95.6
95.67
97.87
100.53
July
August
September . .
94.4
94.3
96 1
100.30
97-5
100.3
100.7
January
February
March
95.04
90,75
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Profits and Profit Margins
Unit Labor Costs
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per unit
of gross prod.
1958 dol. ),
nonfin. corp.
(1957-59-100) 1957-59-100) 1957-59-100) (Dollars)
Revised2
*17. Ratio,
15. Profits
(after taxes) )rice to unit
)er dollar of abor cost
sales,1 all mfg. ndex, mfg.1
corp.
(Cents)
LAGGING INDICATORS
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, indus.
commod. ©
107.8
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
joods©
*62. Index of
abor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.
1957-59-100)
Revised3
47.9
11.5
5 1
100.6
100.6
100.8
108 3
108 6
108.1
108 7
108 9
o 719
107.5
108.1
108.0
49.7
11.4
5.0
100.8
100.3
100.5
108.8
108.6
108.8
109 1
109.1
109 4
0.718
108.2
108.8
108.9
50.0
11.2
5.1
100.3
98,7
98,7
108.8
108.9
109 2
109.7
109.5
109 9
0.722
109.4
110.9
111.4
103.76
105.40
B> 106.48
51.6
11.4
5.1
98.7
99.2
110.0
110.3
110.5
0.732
98.9
109.7
109.9
110.2
103.4
106.3
106.9
102.04
101.46
99.30
!H>r51.7
rll.2
5.0
99.2
100.2
100.0
110.9
111.4
112.0
111.3
111.7
112.2
0.745
112.2
111.5
112.2
April
May
June
109.3
110.4
111.6
101.26
104.62
r51.3
rll.O
4.9
99.6
100.0
100.0
112.1
112.2
112.2
112.4
112.8
113-2
0.755
112.9
112.8
113.2
July
August
September
112.4
115.0
117.4
94.71
94.18
94.51
r49.7
rlO.4
100.3
99.0
99.0
112.4
112.8
113.5
113.6
113.9
E>0.767
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
115 6
115 6
October
November
December
98.11
101.34
111.4
111.2
111.7
1969
99.14
95.52
96 21
91 11
"1179
3
119. 5
4.8
4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
r99.1
r98.5
p98.0
113.2
113.8
114,2
[H>114.6
114.6
114.9
[fi>115.3
...
(MA)
113.2
114.7
rl!5.0
rl!5.6
rll6.7
[H)pll7.6
89. 80
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated b y e ; fo? series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93) current o w v a u e s are mdicated^by
|H>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e , estimated; a , anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Series that reached their high values prior to 1968 are as follows: Series 23, high value (123.5) reached in Mar. 1966;
Series 22, high value (13.9), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 15, high value (5.8),_in 1st quarter 1966; Series 17< high value
(105.2), in July 1966. 2See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page 111. 3Average for January 6, 13, and 20.
* Average for January 19, 20, and 21.
ltd)
JANUARY 1970
'3
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
ffl
MONEY AND CREDIT
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
Year
and
month
1967
January. .......
February.. „
March
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change in
mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*113. Net change 112. Change in 1 110. Total pribusiness loans vate borrowing
in consumer
installment
debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
+2 42
+1 42
+2 84
4^i
+1 08
+2 28
4-9 95
4>1 Ao
+16 97
+3 fU
+8 09
+9 77
+12 42
+8 40
—1 LL
H> +16 68
+12 84
+11 28
+9 72
+6 00
+12 67
+10 69
4-7 OL
-O 55
+n ^2
+13 56
-3.48
[H) +11 76
+11 04
July
August
September , .
+13 44
+10.20
+9.12
+10 20
+8.76
+5 40
+17 75
+21 61
+21 20
+3 08
+4 78
+3 76
+16 09
October
November
Decembet
+7.68
+8.28
+7.32
+5.40
+5.28
+3.36
+19 . 82
+21 32
+20.33
+3 79
+4 69
+4 31
+5 36
+2 66
+8 39
1968
January .
February
March
+4.32
+7.80
+7.44
+6.00
+4.56
+5.88
+20 "39
+19 27
+19 72
+4.56
+7.08
+5.76
+5.88
+19 08
+11.04
+21.64
+18 18
April .....
May . . . , ,
June
.
July
August
September
October
November
December .
1969
January .
February
March
April
May .
June
July.,,
August
September . . .
October
November
December
i-l
i
0
-jo
J
ft
QA
i Q OA
+VOO
+10 56
i T Q Ctn
i_T f\
-if\
+9.00
i
rt
i ft
rtrt
rtft
CO
+*iO<i
4*3
4.0
eo
+<£O*C
i -J *i
i 17
ort
ii
+r-44
?1
+17 77
•+18 28
•+18.86
+10 70
+9 30
+11 27
+14 10
_i_7
Ao
+ r .07
4=17 i n
i_o rv>
^.Q
TO
OA
+7 Q?
_i_on QA
-1 20
-0 60
+1 20
+4 20
4-1 Q AO
r t i n
-8.4U
1 n *;A
, -i
rtrt
+1.8O
-1.20
0.00
-1
J-.56
pu
r-rO.36
p+3.36
T on
+0 60
n=l,20
p^?.40
ft
c '779
"Pj f f *
+8 58
_l_o p 7 a
_Ll A
CA
+16.
56
j_*3T fY7
+21 .07
-H20.74
-4-Q
<\&
,rt
i Q
tc *ac
+5 OP
-| 5
4=1 A 1 A
-i-Q nft
4-7
9^
+ r «^5
+7.Xxi
-I (-
I_Q e j
+ 7. 54
+7.46
+7 . 20
+8.3^
ru-lft An
+8 03
n+19 37
4-7
(NA)
OQ
rjc
+ (• r?
i -I pi
i A
+0. J7
/,/.
(NAl
+
s'^
->,^0
, d Q£
.7 Ai
-1 09
n+11 95
i on
juyu
1.79
/<
108 90
1 65
81 63
1 AA
oq Q;.
AQ Q&
TflA . ^4V
Q
4-U^
AQ Ana
4-1 A O9
-A. 95
+A 55
21
ft9
7J*J{
1Q5 A 5
70 236
+10 01
9O
15
i0
79 3ft/i
+19 57
+2.09
4-5 7ft
4-11
a
7? 55
66 796
+7 69
+8.78
+10 28
4>g
no -37
1 HA A/.
9 39
+3 7ft
+ft 59
11 .
q 45
/, e
XO.J
TA-a
*?ft AC;?
po,op^
4-n i, 7
fu\ +11 QA
4-1
4-A
7Q
(Percent)
no* j}&
*39
XJ-V
+8 83
+7 46
+20 ^9
r+21.67
fu\ +25 37
4_pn QA
+23 66
-i-9 n no
-2 16
-0 96
_Lj.
-9 19
-9 15
(Mil.dol.)
in& '17
56 756
ft^
April
May ,
June
-4-1 5
(Ann. rate,
mil.dol.)
14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of busi- rate, 30 days
ness failures® and over, total
installment loans
1
J-. 7A
f*4-
7Q AH
ftA 59
c-i
1»pJ-
80 U
91 41
7J
r^ .AA
oo
EQ
1*P7
eo
I.pr
on
97
7U.*if
Ae
up » 77
rf
I eA
5ft A^
A 5 ^ft
Q7 7Aft
fM\
5A A5
(My po.o?
CjO
g
rp.O3
89.99
84.12
r-t
OcA
V0,95o
QA
fu\ QQ
O^fJ
IH/ VV,288
...
r\&n
c^o
poU,55^
...
f MA ^
I^NA;
* T
rtQ
na\
i /7
p; i.4r
I.fy-ti
/.L
^i^[
QQ
118.76
9^.60
91.92
1.51
I.60
/ JC.
1.64
102.73
62.83
73.70
1.70
11 A i i
I Ao
107
1A
96 85
/'MAN
^NA;
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values ara
indicated by (8); for series that move counter to movements in generaj business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[H>.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk {*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The Yr indicates revised; "p"» preliminary; V f estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
series reached its high value (+21.11) In July 1966.
76
JANUARY 1970
BCH
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Resets
93. Free
reserves ©
(Mil. do!.)
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding
Money Market Interest Rates
114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer
bill rate©
bond yields® bond yields® bond yields© installment
debt
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
to^*****
*72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Mil. dol.)
1967
January
February
March
-16
-4
+236
4.76
4.55
4.29
5.53
5.35
5.55
4.40
4.47
4.45
3.54
3.52
3.55
76 191
April
May
June
+175
+269
+297
3.85
3-64
3.48
5-59
5.90
6.06
4.51
4.76
4.86
3.60
3-89
3.96
76 636
76,826
77,146
July
August
September
+272
+298
+268
L 31
6 06
6 30
6 33
4 86
4 02
77 i03
Ao Q-| n
4 28
4 45
L 95
77 £O1
4 99
3 99
4 12
62 817
63 246
October
November
December
+160
+270
+107
4 59
4.76
5.01
6 53
6.87
6.93
5 19
5.44
5.36
4 30
4.34
4.43
78 430
78 821
1968
January . .
February
March
+144
-315
5.08
4.97
5.14
6.57
6.57
6.80
5.18
5.16
5.39
April
May
June
-413
5.36
-326
5 62
-JJ/M.
q/,T
5 O4-
6.79
7 nn
7 CO
July
August
September
-226
-1QO
C
q#
C
10
-1^2
5 20
6 69
+38
October . .
November
December
CI
76 309
76 5A.6
78 114
60, 936
61,138
*67. Bank
118. Mortgage
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential®
loans, 35
cities ©
(Percent)
A A2
6.13
6 29
5.95
A <^
OOJ
K.
QC
5 96
79,180
4.29
4.31
4.54
79 579
80,315
80,937
65 363
65 , 734
66,063
6.36
5.28
4.34
J.
81,578
&•) qnn
67,446
c /.n
rto
O/,
no
5 • ^-?
cr\
4 ou
A QT
c .uy
no
?
4 OJS
A *>}>
c (U
i
91
c oQ
j.
qcJ
c*q CQO
op > P J^
4
AQ
rtA J,7Q
ft7 ono
qq
fY)f\
do dao
0,5,00,?
dJ,
ClT
7
A7 3OA
6 60
6 63
A A^
6 77
6 81
A g-|_
A
ft/.
Zry rrfy-l
6 78
6.83
6.94
(w/n
UMA;
7 O2
C'*)
/U<d
Art i7rt
Aft
Ao^
00,0^;)
Ao ooc
oy,«£^:;>
6 44
6 51
63 592
64 053
65,102
CJ,
6.46
A oe
6l 592
62 345
62,209
62 580
(Percent)
A ftQ
;o
7 .4^
7 O?
00
7 .AO
OC
-167
c qq
6 88
C
OJ.
-2A.5
31O
5 A.9
5 92
7 00
7 28
C
qA
c
AA
—480
6 18
6 16
6 08
7 oq
c
71,
;. at
7 33
7 76
5 86
6 05
L 98
5 26
OQ
5.84
5 85
6.05
5 19
5.76
90 933
91 779
92,574
c 7*:
oq n Q/^
7 J ) -1-7°
7A Aft7
6 00
6 26
93 796
n;. i oy,
77 990
8 40
6.30
E>6.82
95,163
E>95,783
(NA)
78,275
8.48
8.48
E>8.62
4 60
4 82
88 088
7fi S*AA
n
70
coA
6 61
7 • c*o
<-i
7 qA
7 en
OJ.A
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
-596
-701
-844
lH^-1 102
-1 064
6.15
6.08
6.49
7.54
7.62
8.04
July
August
September
1 ("17 A
Q; A
aq-|
7 OO
7 n-i
7f .-Lj>
10
8 06
8 05
8 qA
6 07
6 02
October
November
December
-992
r-988
p-849
7.04
7.19
E>7.72
8.46
8.94
[H>9.22
6.27
6.52
H>6.81
A q?
5 33
CJtJ
7OQ
CO7
90 T73
70
;. T n
O^A-LU
7A 69ft
7i 67/i
7 32
76 659
77,176
7 <*A
(Nti}
\WA;
8 05
77,008
77 /,AC
f ( ^HUp
78,395
E)P79,671
7 99
•. .
8 (jo
E>8.83
8 06
8 nA
8 qc
QA
8 • 3o
ft ^A
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated'by [R>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 1-4, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[R>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
JANUARY 1970
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
Q| COMPOSITE INDEXES
Year
and
month
810, Twelve
leaders, reverse
trend adjusted x
(series 1,5, 6,
10,12,16,17,
19,23,29,31,
113)
820. Five
coinciders,
estimated aggregate economic activity
(series 41, 43,
47, 52, 56)
830. Six
(aggers (series
44, 61, 62, 67,
71,72)
(1963=100)
(1963-100)
(1963-100)
(1963=100)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment adjustments
(series 1, 2, 3,
5)2
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12, 29)
815. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 223, 25,
31,37)
(1963=100)
(1963-100)
816. Profitabil- 817. Sensitive
ity {series 16.
financial flows
17, 19)2
(series 33, 85,
112, 113)
(1963-100)
(1963-100)
1967
January ,
February,
March...
126.3
124.9
125.0
141.2
140.9
141.5
150.0
149.5
149.7
106.4
103.0
101.8
103.1
103.3
103.4
103.2
101.6
100.7
113.8
113.6
113.8
95. a
97.1
97.9
April
May
June
125.6
127.0
128.7
141.4
141.3
142.3
149.8
149.6
150.3
102.3
103.8
103.8
104.5
105.5
107.9
99.5
100.2
100.2
114.3
114.4
1X3. a
95.5
9S.4
99.8
July
August
September
129.0
131.5
131.6
143.1
144.5
143.7
150.6
150.4
151.4
103.8
105.0
104.9
107.4
109.3
108.9
99.9
100.3
99.5
114.5
1U. 7
115.0
100.3
9S.7
97.6
October
November
December
1968
January
February .
March
132.7
134.4
136.8
143.2
146.8
149.0
152.0
152.9
154.8
104-9
105.7
105.7
109.8
110.1
112. 5
102.0
104.2
10009
115.6
115.6
116.5
99.7
100.0
99.3
134.6
137.3
137.8
149.9
151.7
152.9
157.2
159.0
159.7
104.6
105.8
105.3
110.4
112.6
113.0
102.0
102.3
102.8
115.4
114.0
114.1
100.5
100.4
100.6
April
May
June
137.9
139.1
140.1
153.7
154.9
156.3
162.4
163.7
164.4
105.9
106.3
106.8
111.3
111.1
112.2
102.7
101.8
100.9
116.0
116.5
117.4
102.6
102.8
101.7
July 1
Augus :
September
14.1.6
U2.0
143-6
157.3
157.8
159.0
164.1
166.7
167.7
107.1
106.2
107.0
113.8
114.9
116.1
100.1
101.6
100.1
117.4
115.8
116.7
[H> 104.3
101.5
99.6
October
Novem ber
December
1969
January
February
March
147.3
147.2
U8.6
160.2
162.1
163.0
168.6
170.7
173.7
107.3
107.1
107.2
118.8
117.6
119.1
102.1
101. 9
102.9
117.3
118.7
119.0
102 .1
103.2
103*3
148.6
150.7
150.3
164.3
166.0
167.0
rl76.5
rl79.2
ri81.3
107.7
106.1
107.1
119.0
119.9
117.9
102.0
104.5
104.3
rll8.2
r!18.9
rllB.2
101,6
101.7
99.6
152.7
152.8
151.7
rl82.9
ri84.9
ra87.5
108.5
107.6
107-1
18)119.9
117.9
117.7
105.9
105.9
104.3
September
152.1
151.7
1)153.6
167.6
168.9
170.9
170.9
172.3
171.4
r 195.0
r!90.l
1-193.9
106.6
106.3
106.6
117.9
117.5
US. 4
106.6
106.2
107.2
102.8
100.8
101.5
98.2
97.5
99.9
October
November
December
r!53.3
rl51.6
P151.3
r!72.5
H>ri?3.6
P173.1
1-196. 4
rl97.6
®P200.4
r!05.6
p!04.7
(NA)
117.7
rll6.0
pl!5.5
r!07.4
rX06,9
P105.4
rlia.2
rl!9.2
rll?.7
rH6.6
rU.5.2
rll5.3
rllS.8
rl!5.3
PL12.9
April , .
May ...
June
July
August
99. a
r9a.a
OJA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [H>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14,39,40,43,44,45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[H> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart 88). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "KA", not available.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicatore. For historical
data prior to reverse trend adjustment, see series 811 in appendix C of the September 1969 issue.
a
Series that reached their high values prior to 196? are as follows: Series 813, high value (109.4) reached in March 1966;
Series 815, high value (110.1) reached in March 1966; Series 816, high value (120.1) reached in February
78
JANUARY 1970
ItCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
b. Second
c. First
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
416. Adequacy 435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
ity: percent
sentiment
considered inadequate less percent considered
(First quarter
excessive
(Percent)
196&-100)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
135.0
135.6
137.4
140.7
80.1
81.1
81.7
82.8
30
29
23
22
40
40
41
38
92.2
94.9
96.5
92.9
145.2
149.5
152.7
156.6
83.8
85.6
87.1
88.6
22
22
21
16
35
35
40
42
95.0
92.4
92.9
92.1
159.2
161.8
167.1
al66.7
90.3
a96.4
18
19
22
(NA)
43
38
39
(NA)
al68.1
a97-9
(Percent)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
61.65
61.50
60.90
62.70
101.5
100.1
102.6
102.9
101.2
103.1
99.0
99.9
64.75
62.60
63.20
65.90
100.1
103.2
102.7
102.0
100.5
102.7
104-5
68.90
70.20
104.0
102.6
103.3
100.9
101.4
(NA)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
98.9
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
72.45
a73.30
99.7
(NA)
92.2
94.2
95.1
91.6
86.4
79.7
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
a76.85
a78.25
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporting-a. No change b. Higher
in income
income
(Percent)
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
(Percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new cars
Actual
b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly)
less decrease in income
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
2-quarter moving average
b. Actual
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)
d. Anticipated
c. Anticias percent of
pated
(Ann. rate, actual
mil, cars)
(Percent)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
7.3
7.5
6.8
6.8
7.4
7.4
7.1
6.8
11.2
10.2
5.9
5.. 9
6.2
6.0
7.4
7.9
8,7
7.8
7.1
7.7
8.3
8.3
19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7
13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2
5.5
5.8
6.5
5.5
8.1
7.9
8.4
8.3
16.5
18.1
18.6
17.6
11.3
12.0
13.0
11.6
5.2
6.1
5.6
6.0
52.4
55.2
53.9
54.2
35.4
32.9
34.2
33.3
11.2
11.0
11.0
11.6
52.3
47.5
48.1
51.2
36.0
40,9
40.. 3
38.0
11.1
10.9
11.0
10.1
16.0
15.8
17.4
16.2
10.1
9.9
52.9
53.0
50.8
50.7
36.4
35-9
37.3
37-4
10.0
10.5
10.8
11.1
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
7.4
7.6
7.6
96
92
92
7.8,
7.6
7.9
8.3
99
92
96
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
8.1
(NA)
8.2
(NA)
(NA)
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
8.0
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r" indicates revised; V, preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
JANUARY 1970
79
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D440. New orders, manufacturing1
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D446. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade1
D444. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
D442, Net profits, manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
71
72
69
72
82
82
80
81
65
65
64
69
75
74
76
76
71
70
72
74
80
82
82
82
53
53
53
53
60
60
60
60
73
78
79
80
80
83
82
81
70
73
72
74
74
80
78
73
79
82
82
84
82
86
86
84
57
60
58
60
60
60
53
60
81
82
85
83
70
74
68
(NA)
78
79
77
76
80
84
86
88
86
83
59
60
60
60
60
59
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
80
76
(NA)
, 1$
(NA)
ofl
1970
First quarter,..
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
76
53
74
70
DIFFUSION INDEXES»Con.
Year
and
quarter
D450, Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
Sell ing prices
D460. Manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
D462. Manufacturing1
Actual
Anticipated
D464. Wholesale trade1
Actual
Anticipated
0466. Retail trade1
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
68
66
65
64
65
66
63
62
72
72
76
78
75
72
70
72
70
70
72
73
74
72
68
70
74
74
80
82
76
73
69
74
74
30
84
3?
76
76
72
78
68
68
70
70
63
66
67
66
78
80
81
84
76
79
78
78
74
76
78
80
74
76
75
76
81
82
82
85
78
82
78
78
88
38
88
92
81
84
86
S?
71
70
70
(NA)
66
68
66
66
84
84
85
(NA)
78
80
80
81
82
80
82
(NA)
75
79
78
80
85
85
86
(NA)
79
80
80
91
90
90
(NA)
84
84
84
86
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
62
78
79
00
77
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r" indicates revised; V, preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Brads trout, In<;
80
JANUARY
1970
IECII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries
Year
and
quarter
a. Actual
expenditures
b. Second
anticipations
(1-Q span)
c. First
anticipations
(1-Q span)
D480. Freight carloadings©
b. Anticipations
a. Actual
carloadings
(1-Q span)
480. Change in
freight carloadings®
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(Thous. of cars-4-Q span)
1967
First Quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter. .....
Fourth Quarter
55.6
30.6
33.3
61.1
50.0
41.7
44.4
50.0
5S.3
44.4
42.1
31.6
10.5
42.1
78.9
52.6
7S.9
73.7
-51
-88
-130
-88
63.9
47.2
80.6
55.6
31.6
68.4
68.4
57.9
73.7
63.2
73.7
68.4
-16
+29
+52
r-11
72.2
50.0
69.4
50.0
52.6
(NA)
78. 9
89. 5
84.2
84.2
-9
-10
-5
53.1
52. 8
1968
66.7
3S.9
55.6
55.6
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
63.9
55.6
69.4
S3. 3
1969
First quarter
Second quarter.
83.3
66.7
69.4
Fourth quarter. ....
S3. 3
75.0
63.9
63.9
+u
1970
75.0
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
73.7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA W , not available.
JANUARY
1970
81
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q FOREIGN TRADE
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
Year
and
month
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1967
January . .
February
March
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts
508. Index of export orders, 512. General imports, total
nonelectrical machinery
(1957-59-100)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
920
855
904
235
196
252
2,317
2,216
2,166
793
961
215
220
210
2,198
2,118
2,184
2,601
2,566
2,597
907
887
924
219
230
231
2,245
2,U+5
2,198
+27 S
2 415
2 671
829
871
2J8
234
+184
2 677
99?
pec
2 25/L
2 ^96
9
AQq
^>^7J
+128
+184
-150
2 814
2 775
2 439
909
1 007
1,314
215
260
252
2 687
2 ^92
2 588
April
May . . ,
June
+251
2,855
2,740
2,870
2 604
989
244
237
223
July
August
September. .
+133
2,858
2,950
3,211
914
988
923
246
240
256
a, 725
a, 872
October . .
November
December
1969
January
February
March
-105
2 6^1
2 972
2 977
1 268
92 1
1 082
o/j.
2^2
239
9 7^A
&t
f=?O
5 ffctt
f
j Q08
r2 086
r2 295
r3,197
834
r-35&
r+221
1 391
1,118
24^
260
222
r2 QX/(
r2,653
r2,976
April
May
June
r+180
r+20
r+26
r3,353
r3 296
r3,211
1 110
248
1 222
pc/
1 211
283
r3,173
3 2?6
r3,106
July
August,
September
r+102
r+193
+271
r3,l68
r3 373
3,326
I
1 9"K
y^g
1,317
9<H
248
276
October
November
December
r+140
+153
+232
r3 , 362
3*367
3,239
rl,341
pi. 323
(NA)
r265
p241
(NA)
April
May
June
2,639
+410
2,608
2,549
2,582
1,005
+432
+398
July
August
September
October
November
December .,
1968
January
Februaiy
March. u
+322
+366
+359
+357
+421
+399
+161
.
-15
+78
+78
+260
+89
+70
r+79
2,582
2,524
917
1,047
2,755
a, 792
p 951
^ nAA
JjUOG
3 1 ^A
,i=eu
3,055
3 O95>
3 PI ^
3,007
NOTE: Series are seasr sally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and dn rU reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
82
JANUARY 1970
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance on goods and
services, excluding military
grants
U.S. balance of payments
520. Liquidity balance
basis
522. Official settlements
basis
(Mil.dol.)
Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers
and errors and omissions
525. 1Liquidity balance
basis
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
527. Official
settlements
basis2
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
1966
-600
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-344
-no
-2k
-426
+481
+239
-307
1,558
1,398
1,100
1,223
-2,158
-1,422
-1,526
-1,530
-1,902
-1,508
-3,072
-2,170
-1,475
-1,878
-619
-984
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-330
-1,031
-1,688
-1,711
-719
-71
-917
1,361
1,451
1,404
961
-1,856
-1,781
-2,435
-2,649
-564
+9
-379
+1,553
+367
-1,035
-832
-1,048
+561
+712
-139
+862
471
841
909
301
-3,871
p-2,5'55
(NA)
+1,144
+1,236
p-9,18
(NA)
363
303
P736
(NA)
-2,033
-4,174
P-3,291
(NA)
+933
-495
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
+97
-850
-812
+66
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
I BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
530. Liquid
liabilities to
to all
foreigners3©
(Mil. dol.)
534. U.S.
532. Liquid
official
and certain
nonliquid lia- reserve
bilities to
assets 4 @
foreign official
3
agencies ®
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Income on investment, military
Goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted"
transactions, other serv., totaI
252. Exports
253. Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
540. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
28,738
28,819
29,432
29,779
16,004
16,305
15,797
16,043
15,026
14,958
14,876
14,882
10,562
10,667
10,936
11,196
9,004
9,269
9,836
9,973
7,218
7,194
7,413
7,564
6,027
6,165
6,595
6,676
3,344
3,473
3,523
3,632
2,977
3,104
3,241
3,297
28,990
29,620
31,211
33,119
16,295
17,424
17,819
19,402
13,855
14,274
14,649
14,830
11,461
11,484
11,577
11,667
10,100
10,033
10,173
10,706
7,688
7,723
7,669
7,601
6,660
6,465
6,542
7,154
3,773
3,761
3,908
4,066
3,440
3,568
3,631
3,552
32,482
32,514
33,493
33,617
18,407
16,994
17,493
18,576
13,926
14,063
14,634
15,710
11,934
12,668
13,344
12,653
11,463
11,827
12,435
12,352
7,941
8,395
8,879
8,383
7,817
8,131
8,566
8,458
3,993
4,273
4,465
4,270
3,646
3,696
3,869
3,894
34,930
39,041
P42.650
16,913
16,010
P17.734
(NA)
15,758
16,057
pl6,743
(NA)
11,913
14,245
p!4,548
11,550
13,942
P13;812
7,469
9,588
p9,560
(NA)
7,572
9,591
P9.232
4,444
4,657
P4.988
(NA)
3,978
4,351
P4.580
1967
First quarter.,.
Second quarter.
Third quarter .,
Fourth quarter,.
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter,
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
(MA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available *
1
2
3
4
Series 520 minus series 250.
Series 522 minus series 250.
Amount outstanding at the end of quarter.
Reserve
5
position at the end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of
Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
IECII
JANUARY 1970
83
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Income on Investment, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Travel
Income on investments
542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
ments abroad
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil. dot.)
(Mil.dol.)
Transportation and other services
Military transactions
544, Receipts
546. Sales under 547. Military
545. Payments
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conabroad
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil. dot.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
548. Receipts
from
(Mil. dot,)
549. Payments
for
(Mil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1,482
1,557
1,573
1,640
479
503
569
591
379
389
411
411
644
676
666
671
198
219
202
210
377
925
975
987
1,612
1,580
1,801
1,879
584
591
580
60?
416
391
416
423
701
841
9H
739
333
335
239
332
1,771
1,973
2,040
1,917
671
742
770
749
440
424
450
456
763
732
792
735
2,120
2,151
P2.357
(NA)
1,086
pi, 248
(NA)
503
515
P540
(NA)
810
844
p871
(NA)
1,235
1,303
1,337
1,371
977
1,000
1,031
1,048
1,085
1,075
1,106
1,412
1,455
1,452
1,432
1,070
3,061
1,031
1,094
305
353
406
364
1,102
1,116
1,143
1,169
1,477
1,523
1,569
1,533
1,110
1,106
1,164
418
334
p421
(NA)
,
1,208
pi,198
(NA)
1,403
1,<>57
pl.670
1,072
1,213
Plj263
1967
First quarter,..
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter,..
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AMD MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmititary Unilateral Transfers
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil. dol.)
564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
of U.S. securities
of foreign securities
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
§75. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
728
934
1
917
1,060
322
80
87
-7
-1,063
-1,054
-789
-825
113
446
325
110
173
520
107
109
64
70
12
112
717
533
947
956
133
329
520
34
223
266
476
301
-1,121
-955
-961
-1,174
462
46?
-329
-199
251
5
23
41
472
1,009
1,262
283
839
1,116
1,115
1,290
311
164
337
455
-977
-359
-788
-366
230
245
96
577
237
169
pl!5
(NA)
928
1,057
Pl,095
(NA)
1,373
337
P379
(NA)
323
427
P562
(NA)
-891
-1,346
P-1,351
-63
-579
P317
(NA)
52
38
-113
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter,.
(NA)
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©9 Series numbers are for
preliminary;
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p" prelimim
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
84
JANUARY 1970
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Rece pts and Expend tures
Year
and
month
601. Federal
600. Federal
surplus (+)or receipts, nadeficit (-) , na- tional income
and product
tional income
accounts
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
biLdoL)
Defense Indicators
602. Federal
264, National
expenditures,
defense purnational income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.doL)
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
(Mil.dol.)
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
647. New or-
(Mil.dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
648. New or-
ders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
(Bil.doL)
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil.dol.)
1967
January
February
March
-12.0
147.5
159.5
69.9
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
3.01
3.32
3.07
3,364
3,930
3,034
April .. .
May ....
June
-13.2
148.3
161^4
71.9
6,211
7,732
6,891
1,754
2,480
2,290
3.17
4.04
3.93
3,026
4,040
3,566
July
August
September
-13 14
152! 8
165 3
73^6
5,928
7,003
7,479
1,633
1,925
2,958
3.60
2.99
3.36
3,545
3,690
3,720
October
November
December
-12! 3
156^4
168^8
74^6
7,449
6,565
6,331
2,735
2,173
1,846
3.98
3.64
4.36
3,626
3,308
3,479
January
February
March ..
-8.4
165! 7
174!l
76!i
7,033
7,615
6,208
2,360
2,865
1,985
3.51
3.86
5.07
l!6Q
1.31
2,887
3,445
3,124
April
May
June ..
-9!?
170.8
180 [3
77^9
6,765
7,441
6,929
2,161
2,299
2,077
4.43
4.01
2.96-
1.47
2.27
2.06
3,488
4,203
3,067
July
August
September
-2.6
181.4
184!2
78!8
7,5A4
7,659
7,989
2,323
2,804
3,234
3.67
3.91
3.55
1.91
2.36
1.92
3,937
3,173
3,836
October
November
December
-0.1
187^3
187 !i
79O
7,520
7,286
6,603
2,298
2,520
1,959
4.41
3.89
4.20
2.38
1.95
2.31
3,903
3,378
3,821
+9^6
198 !l
188^5
79^6
7,852
7,216
6,303
2,307
2,207
1,542
4.02
4.39
3.81
1.84
2.31
2.15
3,468
3,658
2,777
+13 .'6
202 .'j
189 13
?s!5
6,340
6,279
5,993
1,442
1,304
1,50?
4.02
3.81
2.87
2.08
1.79
1.27
2,639
2,673
2,618
Juiv
August
September
+7.2
200.8
193! 6
80.3
7,198
6,434
6,497
1,462
1,276
2,101
4.051
3.77
r3.37
2.38
1.46
1./.2
2,962
3,172
2,748
October
November
December
(NA)
(NA)
pl96'*2
P79.*2
7,316
7,025
(NA)
2,063
1,987
(NA)
r4.15
r4.63
P3.94
rl.89
r2.20
pi. 91
3,314
2,659
2,939
1968
1969
January
February
March
. ..
April
May
June
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
r
"e' , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
JANUARY 1970
KCII
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
E| PRICE MOVEMENTS
Wholesale price indexes
Consumer price indexes
Year
and
month
1968
January
February
March
781. All items® 782. Food
783. Commodities less foods
784. Services® 750. All commod- 58. Manufacities®
tured goods ®
751, Processed
foods and
feeds
752. Farm products
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=iOO)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
118.6
119.0
119.5
117.2
117.5
118.2
111.3
111.7
112.1
130.8
131.3
132.1
107.2
108.0
108.2
108.1
108.7
108.9
112.1
113.1
113.6
99.3
100. a
101.8
119.9
120.3
120.9
118. 7
119.3
119.1
112.2
112.5
113.0
132.5
133.0
133.9
108.3
108.5
108.7
109.1
109.1
109.4
114.1
114.4
113.9
101.7
102.8
102.6
July
August
September
121.5
121,9
122.2
119.2
119.5
120.0
113.3
113.7
114.0
134.9
135.5
136.0
109.1
108.7
109.1
109.7
109.5
109.9
114.6
114.6
114.5
102.1
101.2
108.7
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March . .
122.9
123.4
123.7
120.8
121.0
121.6
114.4
114.8
115.0
136.6
137.4
138.1
109.1
109.6
109.8
110.0
110.3
110.5
114. 5
115.3
1U.9
102.7
104.7
103.9
124.1
124.6
125.6
122.2
122.0
122.8
115.1
115.9
117.0
139.0
139.7
140.9
110.7
111.1
111.7
111.3
111.7
112.2
115.7
116.1
117.1
105.3
104.5
106.2
April
May
June
126.4
126.8
127.6
123*6
124.2
125.5
117.2
117.5
118.0
142.0
142.7
143.3
111.9
112.8
113.2
112.4
112.8
113.2
ue. 6
120. a
120.7
105.1
109.6
111.3
July....,
August
September .
128.2
128.7
129.3
125.8
126.4
127.1
118.2
118.4
118.8
144.0
U5. 0
146.0
113.3
113.4
113.6
113.5
113.6
113.9
120.7
121.1
120.5
108.5
108.7
108.3
129.8
130.5
131.3
127.1
128.6
130.3
119.4
119.7
120.1
146.5
347.2
148.3
114.0
114.7
115.1
114.6
114.9
115.3
121.7
122.4
122.8
109.5
112.8
112.4
April
May
June
...
f
. .
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August. , „
September
October
November
December
iNOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only,and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
86
JANUARY 1970
KCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
U ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level 1
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
649.1
655.0
660.2
668.1
637.6
643.9
650.2
656.6
-11.5
-11.1
-10,0
-11-5
666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5
663.1
669.6
676.2
682.9
-3.4
-0.9
-1.8
-0.6
693-3
705.8
712.8
718.5
689.6
696.4
703.3
710.2
-3.7
-9.4
-9.5
-8.3
723.1
726.7
730.6
P730.5
717.2
-5.9
-2.4
4-0.8
pfS.l
1967
First quarter
...
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
724.3
731.4
738.6
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Based on a trend line of 3-1/2 percent per year through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to date.
JANUARY 1970
87
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q| ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
19S7
January
February.
March..
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales,manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods
854. Ratio,
personal saving todisposable personal
income
855. Ratio,
nonagriculturaljobopenings unfilled
to persons
unemployed
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1957-59=100)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
859. Real
spendable avg.
wkly. earnings,
noting! i. prod,
or nonsupv.
workers
(1957-59-100 (1957-59 dol.) (1957-59 dol.)
857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing®
(Percent)
(10
8?!i
1.57
1.59
1.59
3.51
3.50
3.46
126.0
127.6
125.6
0.075
0.138
0.133
0.127
128 ! 3
2.41
2.42
2.43
78.52
77.91
77.89
6,*6
April
May
June
85^6
1.59
1.59
1.57
3.53
3.50
3.48
124.3
124.6
123.3
0.676
0.121
0.118
0.117
129^6
2.42
2.42
2.43
77.72
77.79
77. &4
60
July
August
September
aiii
1.58
1.57
1.57
3.54
3.40
3.48
123.1
121.7
122.3
0.674
0.117
0.120
0.115
13<X6
2.43
2.44
2.43
78. 11
78.23
78.36
6ii
ai!a
1.59
1.57
1.56
3.54
3.U
3.39
119.4
122.2
119.9
0.077
0.109
0.118
0.119
13lil
2.43
2.44
2.45
77.94
73.49
78.16
s.'s
p84.*9
1.55
1.54
1.54
3.37
3.36
3.39
rl20.5
rl!9.5
rl!8.4
0.069
0.128
0.124
0.129
132^6
2.47
2.46
2.48
70.17
76.71
73.57
5^5
April
May
June
pSl'.B
1.55
1.54
1.52
3.41
3.36
3.28
117.9
rll?.6
rll7.0
0.072
0.137
0.1AO
0.132
134^1
2.47
2.48
2.48
7^.29
?a.55
78.63
5*.7
July..,,
August,
SeptemDer
p84.0
1.51
1.54
1.53
3.17
3.38
3.24
rll6. 6
ril5.7
rl!7.5
0.056
0.129
0.132
0.132
134^4
2.48
2.49
2.49
7B.39
70.52
7^.94
5.4
P84'.2
1.53
1.53
1.56
3.19
3.22
3.38
rl!8. 1
rl!9.5
rl!8.2
0.063
135^8
2.49
2.50
2.51
78.64
78.31
78.66
4^9
p84.5
1.54
1.53
1.54
3.22
3.18
3.21
118.9
118.7
118.5
0.053
O.U3
0.134
135 !6
2.51
2.50
2.49
78.52
70.05
78.31
5^6
April
May
June
P&W5
1.54
1.54
1.53
3.24
3.26
3.17
120.0
121.8
122.0
0.053
0.133
0.138
0.139
134^5
2.48
2.48
a. 48
78.20
78.25
78.27
5.1
July
August
September
p84.*2
1.54
1.54
1.54
3.20
3.15
3.07
H9.8
120.0
P123.1
0.067
0.124
r 0.121
0.107
P334.3
2.50
2.51
2.51
78.03
78.34
78.53
5*.6
October
November
December
p8l'.8
1.54
pl.55
(NA)
r3,03
3.07
(NA)
r]JE4.9
rl21.9
P122.3
pO.064
0.109
rO.121
pO.105
(NA)
2.50
2.50
P2.49
78.18
r?8.10
P77.77
(NA)
October
November
Decembe;
1968
January, ,
February . .
March
October
NovemD©r
December .
1969
January
February
March
0.134
o.uo
O.U3
o.ui
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources aie shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e",1 estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
S@© "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
JANUARY 1970
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (21 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB(17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1967
40.0
54.3
32.9
34.3
34.3
38.6
47
53
?6.2
9.5
01.9
11.9
Apri 1
May
June
45.2
23.8
•50.0
19.0
35.7
28.6
48.6
54.3
64.3
65.7
61.4
65.7
53
41
July
August
September
73. 8
59.5
61.9
76.2
61.9
38.1
40.0
72.9
42.9
74.3
91.4
70.0
53
59
October
November
December
35-7
76.2
38.1
73.8
69.0
21.4
60.0
54.3
74.3
71.4
71.4
68.6
41
41
14-3
88.1
21.4
64.3.
69.0
69.0
51.4
55.7
50.0
57.1
71.4
68.6
47
53
April .
May . .
June
14.3
88.1
66.7
35.7
76.2
88.1
40.0
54.3
51.4
68.6
68.6
80.0
65
59
July
August
September
33.3
38.1
$3.3
35.7
50.0
69.0
51.4
44.3
78.6
71.4
88.6
82.9
71
62
47.6
16.7
52.4
21.4
42.9
50.0
60.0
44.3
55.7
88.6
77.1
85-7
47
76
January
February
March
52.4
28.6
90.5
40.5
19.0
23.8
57.1
62.9
40.0
82.9
68.6
60.0
53
65
April
May
June
38.1
38.1
r23.8
54.3
45.7*
40.0
51.4
82.9
68.6
59
p65
July
August
September
47.6
42.9
47.6
28.6
45.2
57.1
r76.2
p28.6
60.0
41.4
81.4
p60.0
(NA)
P47
(NA)
October
November
December
rl9.0
r69.0
P69.0
January
February
March
69.0
7.1
1968
January . . .
February
March
..
..
October....
November
December
1969
37.1
rp28.6
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: l-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; l-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are
placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
ICO
JANUARY 1970
89
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
D34. Profits,
manufacturing,
FNCB (about 1,000
corporations)
1-quarter span
1968
January
February
March
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
(13 industrial materials)
' stocks (75 industries)®1
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
55
64.5
10.5
21.1
61.8
63.2
71.1
46.2
46.2
53.8
30.8
46.2
46.2
25.5
80.9
25.5
57.4
51.1
61.7
April
May ......
June
45
94.7
83.6
80.3
76.3
82.7
85.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
53.8
61.5
73.1
63.8
51.1
53.2
38.3
51.1
74.5
July
August .
September . .
56
48.7
17.8
86.7
93.3
97.3
81.3
46.2
65.4
57.7
76.9
57.7
76.9
57.4
40.4
63. a
36.2
66.0
76.6
October
November
December . .
1069
January , ,
February . „
March
58
82.7
77.3
72.7
71.3
52.0
56.0
69.2
69.2
38.5
92.3
92.3
84.6
66.0
31.9
61,7
78.7
59.6
53
12.0
43.3
13.3
73.3
40.0
14.7
53.8
61.5
46.2
84.6
80.8
76.9
72.3
38.3
55.3
70.2
46.8
40.4
April
May
June
52
54.0
74.7
1.3
12.0
6.7
21.3
65.4
57.7
76.9
69.2
76.9
92.3
48.9
57.4
23.4
58.5
34.0
25.5
July
August
September
49
4.0
34.7
61.3
25.3
21.3
61.5
76.9
57.7
76.9
76.9
69. 2
51.1
59.6
38.3
28.7
24.5
October . ..
November
December
,1970
January
February
March
(NA)
46.2
50.0
50.0
72.7
68.0
4.0
3
3
63. a
45.7
31.9
57.4
50.0
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes
areplacedon latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes
shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
'•Baaed on 76 components through August 1968 and on 75 components thereafter.
Average for January 6, 13, and 20.
8
90
JANUARY
1970
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
|3 DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year
and
month
D41. Number of employees on
nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
1967
047. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
C1)
0)
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)®
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
9-month span
January
February
March
80.0
35.0
40.0
50.0
41.7
43.3
29.2
20.8
43.8
45.8
29.2
27.1
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
39.1
43.5
69.6
91.3
95.7
April
May
June
40.0
36.7
65.0
36.7
40.0
40.0
52.1
16.7
50.0
29.2
41.7
41.7
47.7
54.5
47.7
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
82.6
87.0
91.3
56.5
July
August ...
September
41.7
66.7
46.7
51.7
m
47.9
75.0
41.7
54.2
66.7
75.0
63.6
63.6
75.0
72.7
81.8
81.8
43.5
60.9
76.1
82.6
78.3
82.6
October . .
November
December
65.0
93.3
73.3
68.3
83.3
85.0
56.2
87.5
83.3
75.0
r75.0
83.3
72.7
77.3
90.9
81.8
90.9
95.5
37.0
67.4
47.8
95.7
95.7
73.9
1968
January
February
March
68.3
75-0
65.0
96.7
86.7
86.7
r41.7
70.8
r72.9
r75.0
83.3
r70.8
90.9
84.1
68.2
90.9
95.5
90.9
73.9
65.2
82.6
82.6
91.3
91.3
April
May
June
66.7
66.7
85.0
86.7
85.0
76.7
r43.8
r64.6
r72.9
r87.5
70.8
79.2
72.7
63.6
61.4
75.0
84.1
81.8
26.1
60.9
65.2
87.0
91.3
87.0
July
August
September.
63.3
81.7
58.3
78.3
81.7
75.0
58.3
r58.3
r68.8
75-0
75.0
70.8
68.2
70.5
72.7
84.1
81.8
86.4
63.0
58.7
30.4
78.3
47.8
78.3
October....
November
December .
71.7
80.0
73.3
81.7
80.0
80,0
r58,3
r70.8
r56.2
66.7
70.8
79.2
79.5
79.5
61.4
81.8
81.8
90.9
52.2
54.3
21.7
82.6
65.2
65.2
January .
February
March
90.0
70.0
70.0
83.3
75-0
76.7
54.2
62.5
91.7
r83.3
r70.8
77.1
68.2
72.7
75.0
81.8
79.5
84.1
73.9
60.9
21.7
73.9
82.6
71.7
April .
May
June
41.7
61.7
70.0
66.7
65.0
56.7
45.8
66.7
70.8
75.0
72.9
62.5
84.1
79.5
84.1
90.9
90.9
88.6
73.9
41.3
54.3
67.4
65.2
56.5
July
August
September
36.7
58.3
31=7
5^-0
r51.7
P45.0
45.8
54.2
37.5
r50.0
r47-,9
P37.5
77.3
68.2
77.3
86.4
86.4
81.8
45.7
50.0
30.4
r52.2
p60.9
October
November
December
r50.0
r53.3
p60.0
1969
r47.9
r60.4
P47.9
68.2
84.1
72.7
1*63.0
r43.5
p60.9
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes
are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used
except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The T" indicates revised; up"r preliminary;and"NA", not
available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©,
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
JANUARY 1970
91
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1969
Diffusion index components
May
July
June
September
August
October
December5*
November
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Average weekly hours)
40.7
All manufacturing industries
o
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories ,
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
+
o
+
o
o
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products . .
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
+
+
+
+
+
o
-
40.6
40.3
40.9
42.1
41.7
41.6
42.6
40.6
41.1
40.8
39.1
40.7 o
(48)
(43)
+
o
+
40.9
40,2
40.7
41.9
41.7 »
41.8
o
+
+
+
42.5
40.6
41.6 +
40.9 o
39.2
40.8
38.1 +
41.0 +
36.1 +
43.0
38.4 o
41.8 o
43.0
41.4 37.6
40.7
39.5
41.2
36.2
42.9
38.4
41.8
42.2
41.3
37.4
o
+
+
+
+
40.7
40.6
(29)
(45)
40.2
39.7
40.1
41.7
41.5
41.6
42.2
40.3
42.3
40.9
39.1
+
o
+
40.8
40.5
(57)
(19)
-
o
+
42.6 +
40.4 +
+
41.2
40.9 +
39.0 o
40.4
40.1
40.1
42.1
42.2
41.5
42.7
40.5
41.8
41.0
39.0
40.6 +
38.2
41.2
36.0
43.0
40.9 +
37.2 +
40.9
35.9
42.8 o
41.0 37.4 40.8
35.8 42.8
38.5
41.9 o
42.9
41.2
37.0
38.4
41.9
42.8
40.9 +
36.8 +
38.3
41.6
42.0
41.0
37.1
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
o
40.4
39.8
40.3
42.1
42.0
41.6
o
-
-
-
o
+
+
+
r40.1
r40.0
39.9
41.7
42.2
r41.4
42.4
40.2
r41.3
40.7
r38.8
r40.5
r37.2
40.6
r35.7
42.7
38.3
41.7
r42.6
r40.9
r37.3
o
40.5 + 40.6
(69)
(69)
•f
+
o
+
o
r40.5
r40.3
r39.9
r42.1
r41.6
r41.4
+
o
+
o
r42.4
r40.1
HO. 5
r41.0
r3S.S
+ 42.5
+ 40.2
+ 41.0
+ 41.7
o 38.8
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
H2.8
r38.3 +
HI. 8 +
H2.7
+
40.8
+
r37.4 +
o
+
+
+
- 40.3
+ 40.8
+ 40.1
42. Q
- 41.5
HO. 7
1-37.4
HO, 8
:r35.B
41. a
40.6
36.8
41.0
36.2
42.7
38.8
4X.9
42.9
41.1
37.5
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other priiary metals.
-
-
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware,, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
+
29,998 - 29,171 + 31,069 (60)
(40)
(46)
4,772
2,246 +
+
-»3,119
.*
5,161
4,825
2,308 + 2,510 +
... +
...
+
... _
+
+
5,579
;} 415 !}
5,627
5,001
2,370 +
5,313
2,592 -
735 361
+
+
+
+
+
+
501 +
716
303 +
561
664 +
314
+
+
- 29,420
fl
(29)
501
+
+
+
3,340
... -i...
+
3,437
...
6,152
5,635
620
:> «*
704 +
274 +
+
"}
+
736
338
...
...
+
0
+
489 +
+
584
... +
+
(NA)
(NA)
(HA)
+
+
+
-r 31, 049
5,300
r4,745
2,571 - 2,180
+
5,513
5,433
- r31,795
2
(37)
+
...
500 !} 540 ;}
(81)
(41)
3,091
3,197
3,157
30,482 + 32,135
5U
...
3,270
5,596
:} 400
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
690
287 +
•*•
...
689
337
(NA)
(NA)
526
505
...
(NA)
+
4>
...
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) ~ falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
a
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency,
^Revised figures are shown for total durable new orders for October and November. Comparable figures were not available for
new orders components; therefore, the diffusion indexes are based on the latest component data available at press time.
92
JANUARY 1970
IICII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
May
July
June
September
August
October
November
December
4,097
3,715
;} 724 !} 715
+
(NA)
06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1-Continued
(Mi Hions of dollars)
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipmentf
Electronic components.
3,710
+
) 692
4
;}.
+
961
+
+
68
1,2A2 -
...
+
.*. +
+
+
+
+
+
+
1,310
-
1,136
(NA)
7,885
...
7,577
r8,103~
(NA)
+
+
+
+
+
+
.+
+
-r
+
(ML)
...
+
+
+
4-
4-
Furniture total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods, total
...
842
+
+
4-
...
:) *°
+
7,657
...
+
3,688
1,082
+
7,554
+
+
+
+
7
+
4-
...
+
+
3,707
800 +
-
+
Other transportation equipment
7n
6,341
7,228
Motor vehicles and parts, total
Complete aircraftf ...
4,079
!} 752 l)
+
+
...
3,664
+
...
...
+
+
+
+
...
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS 2
(1941-43 - 10)
Index of 500 stock prices
+
104.62
-
+
+
+
+
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
.
...
.
Metal fabricating
+
+
_
... _
! .".
-
94.71 (4)
(1)
(75)
Food composite
Tobacco (cifiarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper .
Publishing
99.14 -
94.18 +
(61)
(35)
+
+
_
_
-
+
+
+
+
...
+
™~
•. . +
-
+
+
o
44-
+
+
+
...
...
..
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters , .
+
+
-t+
+
+
4-
...
\f
+
+
+
+
...
95.52 +
(73)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
... +
+
-
+
-
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
[\\
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
96.21 (68)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
94.51 +
+
...
+
...
++
+
+
+
+
91.11
(4)
+
...
...
!! '.
[^
...
...
...
...
.! .
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table £3.
2
ItCII JANUARY 1970
93
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1970
1969
Diffusion index components
May
August
July
June
October
September
January1
December
November
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59-100)
+ 110.4 +
111.6 +
112.4 +
115.6 o
115.0 + 117.4
115.6 |+
117. 2 +
H9.5
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
L sad scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib,)
Zinc (lt>.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd,), average
Wool tops (ib.)
Hides (Ib,).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib,).
Tallow (Ib.)
(58)
(77)
.601 1.604
.076
.079
t 30.644 + 31.283 - 29.774 + 31.408 + 34.073 - 1.565 + 1.594 + 1.617 + 1.663 - 1.654 +
.160 o
i.150 +
.151 +
.151 o
.151 o
.152 +
.140 +
.136 +
.145
.143 +
(58)
+
+
.545 +
.073 +
(77)
.561 +
.074 +
•r
+
.250
.250 o
.221 o
.224
1.584 + 1.597 .190
.179
+
11.964
o
o
.255 +
.059 +
11.964
+
.260 f
.064 +
(62)
.577 +
.078 +
.257 +
.257 o
.249 +
.220 o
.221
.221 o
1.572 + 1.578 + 1.583
.168 +
.202
.172
12.410
f
.278 +
.068 +
12.550
+
12.823
.304
.076 +
.285
.079
+
(46)
.602
.073 +
(50)
.589
.074
33.298 -
30.090
(50)
.613
.078
•f
t
+
1.778 •f
35.050
1.665 + 1.740 H
.160 o
.160 o
.160
.162 t.169
.163
.261
.251
.255
.232 o
.220
.219 <i1.546 + 1.566 - 1.535
.181 +
.196
.192 +
12.978 -
.266
.073 +
32.939
- la.sa?
.241 f
.074
.245
.068
(50)
.601
.079
38.318
1.806
.159
.159
.247
.aaa
1.521
.183
-
12.849
+
+
.26,3
.069
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS 3
(Thousands)
180
Avg. weekly initial claims . . .
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11).
New York(l)
Pater son (21)
Philadelphia (4)
PtttsiDurgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region;
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (22)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5) .,
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19).
Milwaukee (18)
Minneapolis (13)
St, Louis (8)
South region;
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Fi and sco (6)
Seattle (16)
201 +
(57)
Percent rising of 47 components
197 +
+
+
+
+
4+
...
...
+
+
+
+
...
...
+
* *.
*••
...
...
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
•j-
...
+
+
•i-
...
• ••
...
-t-
+
•t4,
*••
Hh
*••
4-
...
'^
...
Hf'
...
't-
...
+
...
+
+
+
+
4-
210
(57)
...
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
...
+
+
^
+
+
+
2U±
(32)
+
+
-j.
-t-
-
+
+
+
+
-f
+
+
202
(46)
...
+
+
+
+
+
(38)
1-
+
+
201
196
(60)
(51)
(23)
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
...
+
...
+
+
...
...
+
...
+
+
...
+
+
+
...
4-
***
=t-
...
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - unchanged, aid (•) - falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r - revised,
1
Average for January 6, 13, and 20.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general "business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) '•'•' rising, (o) » unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its si^e rank.
2
94
JANUARY 1970
ItCIt
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
May
June
July
August
Octoberr
September
Decemberp
November *
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagficultural payrolls
+
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products .
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade . ,
Finance, insurance, real estate
Servke and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
70,013 +
(62)
Percent rising of 30 components
192
530
412
526
+
1,062
+
1,021
1,366
+ 1,381
- 1,399
+
294
347
+ 1,206
+
69
871
+ 1,255
+
554
669
o
617
o
H8
+
451
o
300
622
+
3,407
+
4,444
+
3,758
+ 10,851
+
3,541
+ 11,065
2,754
+
9,453
+
70,300 -
188
528
411
+
$32
+ 1,076
+ 1,122
+ 1,377
- 1,379
+ 1,434
292
+
348
- 1,201
o
69
+
873
o 1,255
+
556
+
674
+
623
+
H9
+
455
299
o
622
+
3,466
.+
4,467
+ 3,774
+ 10,891
+ 3,557
o 11,066
+
2,790
+
9,469
70,247 +
+
o
+
+
187
520
408
526
1,077
1,122
1,369
1,388
1,430
291
350
- 1,197
68
o
873
- 1,248
555
+
675
620
o
119
o
455
294
+
629
3,434
+
4,483
o
3,773
+ 10,898
+
3,568
o 11,067
2,777
9,454
70,500 (58)
(37.)
(70)
181
518
+
410
+
527
+ 1,087
+ 1,128
- 1,366
- 1,387
+ 1,582
+
292
345
+ 1,204
+
70
863
- 1,242
+
557
+
676
619
118
454
+
296
+
631
- 3,410
o
4,484
+
3,776
+ 10,926
+ 3,581
+ 11,120
2,752
+
9,486
70,390 +
+
+
+
-
o
+
o
+
+
o
+
+
-
173
516
408
529
1,106
1,127
1,380
1,383
1,447
289
343
1,199
67
862
1,239
557
678
614
117
451
287
631
3,420
4,480
3,787
10,929
3,586
11,150
2,749
9,461
70,651 o r70,653
(50)
(32)
o
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
o
o
+
+
+
+
+
168
509
408
531
1,109
1,117
1,387
1,389
1,423
288
345
1,185
65
860
1,238
557
683
613
118
450
289
631
3,418
4,480
3,807
11,002
3,595
11,244
2,729
9,589
o
+
o
-
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
rl67
r510
r404
r530
rl,105
rl,117
rl,374
rl,276
rl,398
r287
r341
rl,2!5
65
r862
rl,237
r558
r684
617
119
r448
289
r632
r3,460
r4,488
r3,817
r 11, 006
r3,6lO
rll,265
r2,721
r9,636
70,639
(60)
(53)
160
510
405
531
1,097
1,122
1,379
1,272
1,373
285
+
357
- 1,200
64
+
863
+ 1,245
+
559
o
684
+
619
+
120
446
+
291
+
636
3,446
+
4,493
+
3,837
- 10,948
+ 3,615
+ 11,288
- 2,713
+
9,675
o
+
+
+
+
-
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59-100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components 2
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products ....
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Mi seel laneous
+ 172.5 + 173.7 + 174.6 - 174.3 - 173.9 - 173.1 (48)
(46)
(38)
(54)
(67)
(71)
r!71.4 - 170.9
(60)
152^4 isiii - rI49.*3 + 15<X4 + 151.1
+
149^3 +
153!l + 179.2 + 180.6 - 179.1 + 180.6 - 179.1 + 179.5 - r!79.2 +
195^3
+
193 11 +
+ 201.8 199-6
- 171.8 + 176.6
- 195.3 + 195.7
+ 156.9 - 120.7 -
+
196^6
+
20Q.3
+ 181.1
- 194.7
+
200^2 - 197.2 - 175.7 - 193.9 +
+
156.*2 +
155 .'3 + r!57!7 114.1 - rlll.l + 113.8
195^5 + r 199 !8
+
204.5 - r2Q2.9
178.8
- 179.1
+ 194.9 H- 195.4
155 .*2 - 152.7 +
115-5 - 113.4 +
195 is o
r 178.1
rl68.2
r!94.9
rLU.O
r!56.6
(NA)
184."6 - r!83.*9
+
196!2 186*.5 IBs! 3 189*.9 ~ 185.0 +
- 167.5 + 168.1 - 167.4 - 165.8 - 165.3 o 165.3 + rl66.4
(48)
15i
180
196
177
164
194
3A1
156
(NA)
183
165
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed "before figures for the current month are rounded.
2
ItCII
JANUARY 1970
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
June
May
August
July
September
November
October
December
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION^Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Papor and products
Printing and publishing
Chemols petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
-
r041.3
+ 156.5 +
+ 150.0 + 107.6 -
157.8 U9.2 +
104.7
157.0 150.7 98.4 +
153.0
148.8
100.0
- risi!6 + r!52.3 - P151.9
- 1*146.1 - p!45.8
(KA)
(NA)
- 97.7 + plOl.l
+
174 .' 9 +
155.9 +
175^3 +
156.5 +
176.4 +
158.3 -
177 '.5
158.2
o rl??! 5 + r 178 16 o pl?B.6
- r!57.3 - r!56.9 + 159.0
i+
239.' 5 -i143.5 +
239^7 +
243^1 -
238!i
U5.4 -
143.5 +
144.5
237.0 +
237.3 +
238.3 +
239.9
+
138.' 6 115-4 +
138!i +
121.9
+
+
123.9 +
129.6 +
124.8 +
134.8 -
-
134.5 +
141.2 +
+
139^9
+
+
-
•t- r234.9
t r240.2 + r240.5 t- p24Q.?
-t- 146.2 + r!46.7 + pua.7
(NA)
o 240.0 - P239.6
+
143!! - 142!2
+ 118.6 -
pl66
(NA)
pl57
p224
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
138.6 +
r!38!6 + p040.?
pU3.8
(NA)
-
114.8
130.0
132.1 -
122.1
130.2
- 114.7 + 115.7 + 118.9 +
+ rl33.1 - r!30.7 - r!30.5 t-
137^4 + 13s!l +
142.6 - 142.2 +
142O
142.8
- 133 !l + r 141.1 + pisaii
+ 144.3 - r!39.6 -t- p!45.9
120.3
p^a
(NA)
(HA)
(NA)
p!40
(NA)
(NA)
+
pl!9
pl31
pl56
(NA)
(NA)
114. 9 ^
115.3
058. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries
+
113-5 +
(77)
113.6
- 129.8 - 125.3 o 105.9 + 106.1 +
+ 112.8 i- 113.0 o
+ 110.3 +
111.1 +
124.0
106.2
113.0
112.7
112.8 +
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetaltic mineral products
1 ron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable; goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
113.2 +
(84)
(80)
+
+
+
138.0
105.9
112.6
109.9
+
+
+
+
134.2 + 135.5
111.0
110.8 +
120.5 + 120.7
120.3 -»- 121.2
+
+
+
+
117.6 +
104.5 +
106.5 +
112.8 +
+
+
o
-i-
119.4
104.6
104.3
4+
+
117.8
104,7
106.6
115.1
+
+
+
f
+
+
o
+
+
+
o
+
108.1 + 108.3 +
136.1
112.0
121.3
121.5
118.1
104.8
106.6
H5.5
122.0
105.3
105.0
92.6
H3.9
108.4
98.1 +
98.2
98.3
102.4 + 103.3 - 103.2
101.2 +
101.1 +
102.5
126.1 125.7 + 126.4
+
+
92.6
+
112.9 +
121.4
104.5
105.0
92,7
H3.3
(68)
+ 113.9 +
(77)
114.6 +
(68)
- 123.2
+ 106.4
+ 113.5
+ 113.2
+ 143.5
122.6 + 123.9 106.5 + 106.9 +
113. a + 113.9 +
113.7 o 113.7 +
+
+
+
t-
+
118.5
104.7
106.0
115.9
144.8
113.4
124.4
123.4
+ 119.2 + 120.0
+ 105.4 + 105.6
100.7
+ 106.1 •t+ 116.4 + 116.7
+
+
•r
121.5
105.7
104.8
92.7
115.8
+
+
+
+ 108.7
-»98.7
- 102.5
+ 103.0
o 126.4
+
+
+
+ 139.5
+ 112.6
+ 123.2
+ 121.8
i-
+ 112.0 +
+ 124.2 •t+ 122.6 +
121.3
105.9
105.0
92.1
116.2
+ 121.6
- 105.8
- 104.5
91.6
-i116.5
108.8 + 109.0
98.6
98.9
101.8 - 101.6
102.7 + 103.5
128.2 - 127.4
(84)
(73)
T
to
122.5
107.2
114.5
113.9
146.4 +
113.6 +
124.4 f
+ 323.7 +
150.1
113.7
124.5
124.0
•t-
320.4 +
+
t•t
106.0 +
109.0 o
117.0 o
121.0
106.2
109.0
117.0
f
t+
121.0
106.0
104.6
91.5
116,7
•*•
-*•
o
^
-
+
-
122.6
106.1
104.3
91.1
+ 1X6.9
109.3 +
109.5
90.0
9B.9
101.6 + 102.2
104.4 + 104.5
126.0 - 126.5
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) -• unchanged, and (-) - falling, Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA - rot available, p = preliminary, r - revised,
are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
96
JANUARY 1970
HCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
May
June
July
November
Decemberp
f
29,620 - r29,548
+ 29,581
+
+
+
+
6,035 +• p6,055
2,219 + P2,255
3,065 + p3,093
302
*£94
October1"
September
August
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sates
-
Percent rising of 23 components
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . .
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel accessory stores
Shoe stores
29,386 -
(41)
+
+
-
o
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
+
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
+
+
5,906
2,186
3,011
285
902
455 +
943 +
281 +
+
o
+
29,090 +
(46)
(54)
+
+
546 +
399
633 +
266 +
5,102
414
2,119
996
615
29,371 -
29,346 (50)
(30)
5,868 2,191 2,991 +
294
5,863 +
2,110 +
3,143 287
+
o
+
+
560
375 +
658
306 +
554
400
653
332
852
445
899
291
841 +
424
552
375
640'
296
895
478
951
283 +
5,220
414
2,086
975
627
-
+
+
5,011 o
408
2,080 994 +
642
29,259
6,006 2,150 +
3,117 285
5,907
2,173
2,988
281
(63)
526 +
388 +
645 +
316
847
417 +
925
265 +
+
5,013 +
399
2,075 +
1,0.13 +
640
5,272
393
'2,089
1,019
617
+
o
+
(61)
(44)
-h
-
(NA)
(NA)
NA
-
(NA)
553
401
652
314
P549
P390
p625
P312
+
+
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
825 +
436
906 +
26? +
P842 P429 +
p912
p272 +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(HA)
5,238 - P5,183 +
400
P387 +
2,090 - P2,06? +
1,007 + Pl,017 +
618
P606
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available,
p - preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
2
JANUARY 1970
97
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month
133. Canada,
781. United
index of consumer
States, index of
consumer prices© prices©
132. United King- 135. West Germany, 136. France,
index of consumer index of consumer
dom, index of
prices©
consumer prices© prices ©
138. Japan, index
of consumer
prices©
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices©
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
115
115
115
117
117
118
129
129
129
123
123
123
141
141
142
153
154
154
137
138
138
Apri 1 ,
May . . . , ,
June... ,
115
116
116
119
119
120
130
130
130
124
124
124
142
142
142
154
153
152
130
138
139
July
August
September
116
117
117
121
121
121
130
130
129
124
123
123
142
143
143
152
153
156
139
139
140
October
Novanta
., .. ,
Decembar
1968
January . .
February
March
118
118
118
121
121
122
129
131
131
123
123
123
144
145
145
159
159
160
140
140
140
H9
119
120
123
123
123
132
133
133
125
125
125
147
147
147
161
161
162
140
140
140
April . , . . .
May ... a
June..,,
120
120
121
124
124
124
136
136
136
125
125
126
147
148
148
162
163
161
141
141
141
July
August
September
122
122
122
125
125
126
136
137
137
126
325
125
149
149
150
162
162
168
140
140
141
October
November
Deceiver ,
1969
January.
February
March,
123
123
12k
126
127
127
137
138
140
126
126
127
152
152
153
166
167
166
HI
141
Ul
124
125
126
127
127
128
140
141
142
128
128
129
155
155
156
3.67
167
169
142
142
U3
April
May .
June., ,
126
127
128
029
130
131
143
143
144
129
129
129
156
15?
158
171
171
171
043
143
144
July,,,
August
September
128
129
129
131
132
131
142
143
144
130
129
129
158
159
160
175
175
177
145
145
145
October
November
December
130
130
131
132
132
133
145
145
(NA)
130
130
(NA)
161
161
(NA)
176
(1957-59=100)
(NA)
176
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification onty.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
98
JANUARY
1970
ItCII
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Year
and
month
47. United
States, index of
industrial production
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
1967
January.
February
March
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
(1957-59=100)
128. Japan, index of industrial
production
121.0ECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
127. Italy, index
of industrial production
8
( )
158
157
157
166
166
166
129
129
130
156
154
156
151
150
150
298
295
304
155
154
155
206
208
207
April
May
June
157
156
156
168
167
168
131
130
130
153
152
156
150
150
148
305
312
317
155
154
155
210
211
211
July
August
September
156
158
157
169
170
170
130
130
131
157
157
159
154
152
155
321
327
336
157
156
158
211
208
212
October
November
December
157
160
162
169
173
174
133
134
136
159
161
164
157
157
170
338
346
349
159
160
165
216
216
215
1968
January
February
March
rl62
172
172
173
135
136
138
164
165
169
159
161
166
348
354
351
162
163
166
218
220
221
April
May
June
rl63
rl65
175
176
179
136
138
138
167
116
136
165
167
180
362
372
373
165
157
16.5
222
222
223
166
165
138
rl66
178
178
180
141
171
171
171
167
178
177
382
382
389
168
171
173
223
217
234
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
166
168
169
182
184
185
141
U2
143
179
182
184
176
185
187
397
407
401
175
178
180
235
226
233
169
170
171
185
187
191
141
rl42
rU4
183
180
180
1S6
189
190
403
410
405
180
180
182
238
233
240
April
May
June
172
172
174
187
186
186
rl/,4
143
U4
rl86
ri87
183
189
195
197
428
429
435
183
184
186
•242
July
August
September
175
174
174
186
183
rl85
144
r!43
143
184
184
186
190
197
r!93
446
443
r457
186
186
p!84
p226
r!91
(NA)
p!96
(NA)
469
(NA)
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
162
163
166
173
171
P171
p!85
(HA)
140
pHl
(NA)
236
243
243
233
$3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,11 page iii.
ltd*
JANUARY 1970
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
i
Q STOCK PRICE'
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)
145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
of stock prices @
index of stock
prices ®
147. Italy, index
of stock prices®
142. United Kingdom, index of
stock prices ®
146. France, index
of stock prices ®
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59~10G)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59«100)
202
19. United States, 143. Canada, index
of stock prices®
index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks ®
1968
January
February
March ..
189
177
171
203
208
213
107
104
113
205
184
181
209
207
208
209
134
130
133
April
May
June
194
198
204
183
185
187
235
246
252
117
111
107
216
219
226
220
229
235
136
135
133
July
Augusf
September
203
199
205
194
192
198
265
272
279
103
105
105
230
231
224
243
254
276
136
138
136
October..
November
December
1969
January
February
March
210
214
216
203
204
210
270
273
279
104
105
109
228
224
219
275
264
266
131
127
134
20?
206
201
214
213
291
282
270
H3
121
130
228
230
231
279
382
279
135
133
136
April
May . . „
June
205
212
201
213
224
209
266
253
235
128
136
124
233
243
247
293
302
304
152
153
150
July
August
September
192
191
192
199
199
204
227
226
229
121
127
127
238
247
252
300
293
146
152
153
October . . .
November
December
1970
January .
February
March
194
195
185
206
2H
213
225
227
234
136
134
P134
262
272
rp265
324
336
P349
162
163
rp!55
F&13
p247
p257
P361
P155
193
p!82
208
310
April,.
May
June
July.
August .
SeptembBf
October , ,
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
100
JANUARY 1970
KCII
TECHNICAL PAPER
The 1961-69 Economic Expansion in the United States: The Statistical Record
Julius Shiskin
Bureau of the Budget
INTRODUCTION
This paper contains a descriptive analysis of the statistical
highlights of the current economic expansion. It shows what
everyone knows—that at 100 months, this is the longest expansion
in U.S. history. The longest previous expansions were 80 months
(wartime) and 50 months (peacetime). Furthermore, during the
present expansion we have experienced a dramatic improvement
in economic stability as well as a high rate of economic growth.
This all appears to be part of a new pattern that has developed
throughout western industrial nations.
There were two significant threats to continued expansion, in
1962 and in 1967. In 1962 recession was averted partly by
fortuitous events and partly by Government counter-cyclical
actions, and in 1967, mainly by Government counter-cyclical
actions.
The first 4 years of the current expansion were distinguished
by the absence of the kinds of excesses and imbalances that led to
recessions in the past. Such excesses and imbalances did begin to
develop, however, in 1965; were partially corrected in 1967; reemerged towards the end of 1967; and are still very troublesome
today.
THE CURRENT ECONOMIC EXPANSION IN PERSPECTIVE
In November 1964, I presented a paper describing the "long"
expansion which then was underway. In
that paper, "The Current
Expansion in Historical Perspective,"1 I noted that:
(1) "The latest monthly statistics available on a broad front
for October (1964) show the continuation of the expansion which
began in February 1961. October, therefore, marks the 44th
month of the current expansion in terms of duration. This is
now the second best peacetime expansion in history."
(2) "The current expansion is also well above the average for
other peacetime expansions in terms of total amplitude and the
change from one business cycle to the next . . . . Thus the relative
advance compared with the previous business cycle peaks is the
strongest since World War I for most economic processes."
Today--57 months after I made these observations—the same
expansion is, of course, still underway. The duration of the
expansion has more than doubled and today, as I present this
paper, it is 102 months of age.
The longest previous peacetime expansion in the record of
business cycles in the United States took place from March 1933
to May 1937--50 months. The longest wartime expansion lasted
from June 1938 to February 1945—80 months. Some very long
expansions have 'also been recorded for Western European
countries. The historical record has been systematically developed
for the period prior to World War II, and the longest expansions
in this period were: In France, an expansion from January 1895
to March 1900 prevailed for 62 months; and in Great Britain,
1
Paper presented at the 12th Annual Conference oh the Economic
Outlook, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich., Nov. 19, 1964,
and later published in Business Cycle Developments (Jan. 1965) and
as BCD Technical Paper No. 6 by the Bureau of the Census.
an expansion from February 1895 to June 1900 lasted 64 months
and another from August 1932 to September 1937 lasted 61 months.
Since World War II, however, several of the Western European
countries and Japan have had very long expansions,2 as is
explained below.
Substantial growth has taken place in the United States during
these 100 months. One way of grasping the magnitude of the
increases in the last 8 years is to consider how long it would have
taken to make comparable gains in the period immediately
preceding, as shown in table 1. About $245 billion were added
to constant-dollar GNP and 17 million employees were added to
nonagricultural payrolls during the 8 years, whereas 19 years
were needed for similar gains in the previous period. Since
percentage calculations for the current expansion start on a higher
base, the comparisons aren't so dramatic in terms of rates of
change, as shown in table 2, Nevertheless, in the previous period
it took more than 10 years to achieve the same relative percentage gain in GNP (1958 dollars) and about 14 years to achieve
the same relative percentage gain in employment, compared with
only 8 years of the current expansion.
On the other hand, the consumer price index rose about 24
points during the current expansion, but took nearly 13 years of
the previous period for the same point increase to develop. In
relative terms one would have to go back about 10 years to
realize the same percentage increase in consumer prices as took
place in the last 8 years.
Another way of gaining perspective on the magnitude of the
increases in the last 8 years is to make comparisons with the
increases in previous expansion periods as shown in table 3,
GNP (1958 dollars) rose 51 percent in the period under review
compared with 29 percent in the expansion from October 1949 to
July 1953, 13 percent in the expansion from August 1954 to July
1957, and 12 percent in the expansion from April 1958 to May
1960. Employment has increased 31 percent compared to 18, 9,
and 7 percent in the previous expansions, respectively. The
corresponding figures for consumer prices a re 2 3 per cent for this
expansion and 13, 5, and 2 percent for the previous expansions.
When differences in the duration of the respective expansion'
periods are taken into account by expressing the figures on an
average monthly basis, GNP (1958 dollars) is shown as growing
at the average rate of 0.51 percent per month in the current
expansion compared with 0.61, 0.34, and 0.50 percent in the
previous three expansions, respectively, with a combined average
of 0.49 percent. (See table 4.) With only a few exceptions, the
2
0n this point, cf. Use Mintz, "Dating Postwar Business Cycles:
Methods and their Application to Germany," NBER (in press).
This paper was written during early 1969 when the author was a
member of the staff of the Bureau of the Census. It was presented
at a session of the American Statistical Association in New York,
N.Y., Aug. 21, 1969.
The subject of the session was, "The 1961-69
Expansion:
Problems and Policies." The author wishes to express
his appreciation for helpful comments on an earlier draft of the
manuscript to Geoffrey H. Moore of the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Maurice Mann and Marie D. Wann ofv the Bureau of the Budget^ and
for valuable assistance to Eugene Rossidivito, Feliks Tamm, and
Betty F. Tunstall of the Bureau of the Census.
101
TABLE 1. Increases for Selected Economic Indicators During the Current Expansion and Length of Time Token to Achieve Similar Increases Prior to This
Expansion
Length of time
taken(years and months)
Increase
during
current
expan-1
sion
Unit
of measure
Economic indicator
TABLE 3. Percentage Increases for Selected Economic Indicators During the
Current Expansion and 3 Previous Post-World War II Expansions
For similar
increase
prior to
current
expansion2
For the
current
increase
Item
Previous expansions1
Current
Average for
expansion,
3 previous
Feb. 1961 Oct.to1949 Aug.to19§4 Apr.to1958 expansions
to present * July 1953 JUly 19§? May 1960
100
Duration of business expansion in months .
ECONOMIC INDICATOR
Gross National Product;
Total, current dollars, Q
Total 1958 dollars Q .
Per capita, 1958 dollars, Q
1963-100
..
Industrial production
Man-hours, nonagri. ©stabs.
Nonagri. employment
Unemployment rate total*
Output per man-hour, ncmfarm, Q
Retail sales
Wholesale prices
Consumer prices
Implicit price deflator, Q
Ann. rate, bit. dol..
421.8
244.6
Ann. rate, dol
94.1
8-6
8-3
8-3
1957-59-100
Ann. rate, bil.
70.3
8-4
. . . (J0
Thousands.
Percent. .........
1957-59-100
Mil. dol
1957-59-100
... do
195&-10Q
3
8-4
87.3
16-1+
22-0
8-6
8-4
8-1
8-0
8-2
8-4
8-4
8-3
32.48
16,795
3.7
»30.1
11,177
*12.2
*23.6
*23.0
Gross National Product:
Total current dollars Q...
Total 1958 dollars Q
19-0
19-6
19-9
3
13-3+
18-8
3
12-2+
13-3
9-9
12-9
10-0
NOTE: Latest month for which data are used is June 1969 for all monthly
series and 3d quarter 1969 for all quarterly scries (indicated by "Q") except
output per man-hour for which 1st quarter 1969 ia uoed.
1
Ingrea0eo during the eurront expansion are measured from the last specific trough date of each series except those indicated by (•*) which are
measured from the last reference trough since n© specific cycles corresponding
to the most recent reference eyele are discernible in these series.
8
In order to avoid a bias favorable to the current expansion, this duration
was calculated using the date of the most recent specific peak for each
eerieo as the final point rather than Feb. 1961, the business eyele trough
date. The entry in this column is the period between that date and the date
when the aeries .stood at a value equal to that
specific peak value minus the
3
increase during the current expansion,
Ihe period required is longer
than indicated but cannot be determined definitely due to lack of comparable
data,
*Inverted series. Since this series moves counter to general
business activity, declines are considered increases and increases are considered ao declines.
Economic indicator
Composite index of 5 cofnciders
Industrial production
Man-hours nonagriculttral estabs
8-4
10-4
83.6
50.7
35.6
8-6
8-3
8-3
10-3
10-3
19-3
67.9
30.3
31.4
8-4
8-6
8-4
8-1
8-0
8-2
8-4
8-4
8-3
62.9
*12.1
*22.7
*22.1
10-0
3
13-3+
13-11
3
12-1+
10-6
10-3
9-9
9-10
30.3
83.6
50.7
35.6
67.9
30.3
31.4
44.1
29.1
21.3
50.0
19.1
23.8
13.3
16.1
12,0
aii.Q
iii.i
17. a
5.4
*12.7
62.* 9
29.2
*12.1
*22.7
*13.3
8.2
21.3
9.4
9.1
2.4
23.7
*7.0
#S.Q
8.4
27. g
8.1
7.1
2.7
14! 1
*0.3
*3*4
:u*.7
32. a
it! 1
il!i
22.3
6.9
6.8
B.4
Item
Previous expans ons1
Current
Average for
expansion,
3 previous
Feb. 1961 Oct. 1949 Aug. 1954 Apr. 1958 expansions
to
to
to
to present *
July 1953 July 195? May 1960
100
35
as
m
Average monthly percent increase
ECONOMIC INDICATOR
Composite index of 5 coinciders
Gross National P'oduct:
Total current dollars, Q
Total 1958 dollars, Q
Per capita 1958 dollars Q
Industrial production
Man-hours, nonagii. estabs
Nonagricuttural employment
Unemployment rate, total2
Output per man-hour, nonfarm, Q
Retail sales
Wholesale prices
45
1.03
1.43
0.79
1.03
1.12
0.82
0.51
0.36
0.60
0.30
0.31
0.04
1.05
0.61
0.31
1.11
0.47
0.40
0.12
0.61
0.34
0.46
0.63
0.35
0.29
0.03
0.60
O.SO
0.35
1.30
0.34
0.31
0.14
0.78
0.49
0,45
*Q.3Q
*0.2d
»0.16
*Q.23
0.64
Q.71
0.5S
Q.'M
*0.12
wQ.23
*0.23
*0.30
*0.29
*Q,2S
*Q.2Q
»0.14
*0.26
»O.OL
*Q.G9
*0.14
o.«m
0.40
0.35
0.11
0.23
0,61
0.20
0.19
O.&V
NOTE: Latest month for which data are used is Juno 1969 for all monthly
series and 23 quarter 1969 for all quarterly series (indicated by "Q") oxeopt
output per man-hour for which 1st quarter 1969 is used.
1
Increases are measured from specific trough dates to specific peak elate o
of each series except those indicated by (*) vhieh arc measured from reference trough dates to referenoe peak date© since no sposlflK eyeleo eorreo2
ponding to th3 referenee cycles are discernible in those serieo.
Invertcd
series. Sinee this series movea eounter to general buolneoa activity, declines are considered as increases and increases are considered ao declines.
Measures shown are average monthly differences rather than average monthly
percent changes.
9-6
NOTE: Latest month for which data are used is June 1969 for all monthly
gorios and 2d quarter 1969 for all quarterly series (indicated by "Q") except
output per -man-hour for which 1st quarter 1969 is used.
1
InereaoeG during the current expansion are measured from the last specific
trough date of each series exeept those indicated by (*) which are measured
from the laot roforenee trough since no specific cycles corresponding
to the
2
moot recent reference oyele are discernible in these series.
In order to
avoid a biao favorable to the current expansion, this duration was calculated
using the date of the most reeent specific peak for each series as the final
point rather than !?eb. 1961, the business oyole trough date. The entry in
this column is the period between that date and the date when the series
etoed at a value equal to that
specific peak value minus the increase during
3
the eurront expansion.
Total increase during period for which comparable
data are available is smaller than that during current expansion.
^Inverted serieo. Since this series moves eounter to general business activity, declines are considered as increases and increases are considered aa
declines. Measure shown is a difference rather than a percent change.
102
22.7
TABLE A. Average Monthly Percentage Increases for Selected Economic
Indicators During the Current Expansion and 3 Previous Po.M-World
War II Expansions
Implicit price deflator, Q
3.7
*28.9
Retail sales
Wholesale prices
Consumer prices
Implicit price deflator Q
For similar
increase
prior to
current
expansion2
104.8
Gross National Product:
Total 1958 dollars Q
Per capita 1958 dollars Q
Length of time taken(years and months)
For the
current
increase
28.5
NOTE: La-test month for which data are used Is Juno 1969 for all monthly
series and 2d quarter 1969 for all quarterly eorieo (indicated by "Q")
except output per man-hour for which lot quarter 1969 is used.
1
Increases are measured for specifle trough dates to spoelfie poalc datec
of each series except those indicated by (*) vhioh are measured from reference trough dates to referonce peak dates oinee no specific eyeleo corresg
ponding to the reference cycles are discernible in theoo fjorieu,
Inverted
series. Since this series moves counter to funeral buoinesQ activity,
declines are considered as increases and inereaceo are considered as declines. Measures shown are differences rather than percent changes.
Duration, in months.
TABLE 2. Percentage Increases for Selected Economic Indicators During the
Current Expansion and Length of Time Taken to Achieve Similar Percentage Increases Prior to This Expansion
Percent
increase
during
current
expansion1
64.4
3
14-4
35
104.8
3.7
Retail sales
23
35
Percent increase
^
Composite index of § coinciders
45
averages for the current expansion are roughly the same as the
averages for the three previous expansions. The most notable
exceptions are industrial production and real average hourly
earnings, which grew less on the average than in the three
previous expansions.
Thus while the rate of gain in physical output and in employment
has been about average or less than average, the aggregate gain
has been far greater than that achieved in any comparable
previous period. The magnitude of the total gain is a direct
consequence of the maintenance of a steady, though average (or
somewhat less than average) rate of gain over a long period,
clearly demonstrating what can be accomplished by the elimination
of recessions.
During the more recent part of the present long expansion,
there has been growing interest in certain component parts of
the measures of aggregate economic activity. For example,
there is a great deal more interest now in unemployment of
Negroes, of teenagers, and of women, compared to earlier
interest in total unemployment. This shift in emphasis has been
possible in large part because of the great success achieved in
dealing with the problems as reflected in the global measures.
This changed viewpoint, as much as the statistics cited above,
attests to the economic accomplishments of the past 8 years.
These achievements did not occur without some important
setbacks.
Like the pattern in production and employment,
consumer prices increased over this period at about their longterm rate without a significant interruption, and as a result there
has been a large total increase. In addition to the stubborn
inflation which has come about in this way, there also have been
increasingly serious balance of payments troubles.
The increase in duration of the current expansion compared
with earlier expansions appears to be part of a trend that began in
the thirties. The change in the underlying pattern includes not
only increasing longevity of expansions, but also a general
increase in economic stability. In my 1964 study, I concluded
that in terms of industrial production there had been a "dramatic
improvement in economic stability during the post-World War II
period." During the 57 months following my 1964 paper, industrial production grew at an average monthly rate of 0.52 percent compared with the slightly different rate of 0.50 percent for
the first 43 months of the 100-month period. These figures may
be compared with an average monthly rate of 1.12 percent for
the 17 business cycles since 1892 when monthly industrial
production figures first became available, and 0.66 percent for
the four business cycles since 1948.
A critical question to be considered in relation to improved
stability is how overall economic growth was affected. Such a
judgment can be formed by computing the rate of long-term
economic growth from averages of business cycles taken as units
of measure. The average annual rate of growth in industrial
production during the current business cycle (4.92 percent) is
somewhat higher than the rate of growth (4.71 percent) over the
17 business cycles since 1892. When measured from peak to
peak, 3 the rate of growth in industrial production during the
current business cycle is substantially larger than in the 1953-57
cycle and the 1957-60 cycle, though somewhat smaller than the
1948-53 cycle. Thus, the record continues to show that we have
experienced substantial improvement in economic stability in
recent years without adverse effects on the rate of long-term
economic growth, and that the performance of the current
business cycle in these respects is particularly good. (In view
of the significance of these data on trends in economic growth
and stability, I have updated and reproduced in this paper the
relevant basic tables first shown in my earlier report^-tables
5-7.)
A relevant question is whether this recent favorable experience
has been unique to the United States, or whether it is part of a
general improvement in economic stability and growth that has
also taken place in the other industrialized nations. Regrettably,
we have not been able to bring together a set of business-cycle
turning dates for European countries for the post-World War II
period; so we cannot provide here the same kind of precise
cyclical comparisons as for the pre-World War II period. It is,
however, clear from scanning the industrial production data for the
countries in Western Europe (see BCD, July 1969, p. 62) that
long expansions have been common since 1945. In Germany the
rise in industrial production continued without serious interruption
from the beginning of the post-World War II period until 1967. In
France there have been only minor interruptions in industrial
production from 1954 to date. Italy enjoyed a long period of
expansion from 1951 to 1963, with only a minor retardation in
1957-58, Canada's experience has been quite similar to ours,
with mild recessions in the fifties and a long expansion which
started early in 1961 and, like ours, is still underway. Thus it
3
For this computation,
current expansion.
June 1969
is taken as the "peak" of the
does seem to be generally true that the long period of expansion
taking place in the United States is part of a similar movement
broadly diffused among industrial nations.
There is a view that the current expansion has continued so
long because of the stimulation of armed conflict, and that
expansion is bound to continue as long as the Vietnam involvement
lasts. On this point it is to be noted that wars and long expansions
have corresponded in the record. The only time we have had a long
expansion without war was in 1933-37. History shows also that
a state of war is not by itself a guarantee of continued economic
expansion. While the business cycle peak of July 1953 coincided
with the cessation of hostilities in the Korean conflict, the past
has witnessed the ending of expansions while the Nation was still
TABLE 5. 17 Cycles in Industrial Production Since 1892
(Durations and average per-month rates of change)
Contraction
(trough from
previous peak)
Specific cycle dates1
Expansion
(trough to peak)
Duration Average Duration Average
per-month
(months) per-month
change (months) change
Trough
Oct. 1893
Jan. 1911
June 1900
July 1903
May 1907..... .
Mar. 1910
Jan. 1913
Nov 1914. ...May 1917.
Mar, 1919
Jan. 1920
Apr. 1921
Feb. 1920
May 1923
July 1924
Nov 1927
July 1932
May 1938
Oct 1949
Mar. 1927
July 1929
May 1937..
Nov. 1943
July 1948
July 1953
Feb. 1957.
Jan. 1960
Apr. 1954
Apr. 1958
Feb. 1961
Duration Average
(months) per-month
change 2
Peak
Mar. 1892
Nov. 1895
Sept. 1896
Oct 1900
Oec 1903
May 1908
Contraction and
expansion
(peak from
previous peak)
Junel9693
...
19
10
4
5
12
10
22
22
-1.53
-1.21
-1.67
-2.42
-2.32
-0.74
-0.69
-0.80
25
45
33
41
22
24
30
10
+1.08
+0.77
+0.92
+0.88
+1.45
+0.82
+1.36
+2.44
44
55
37
46
34
34
52
32
1.27
0.85
1.00
1.05
1.76
0.80
14
14
8
36
12
-2.59
-1.16
-0.64
-1.97
-2.14
25
32
20
58
66
+2.01
+0.75
+1.09
+1.35
+1.65
39
46
28
94
78
2.21
0.87
0.96
1.59
1.72
15
9
14
13
-0.48
-1.01
-0.98
-0.39
45
34
21
100
+0.85
+0.55
+1.05
+0.51
60
43
35
113
0.75
0.64
1.02
0.50
i.oa
1.31
NOTE: The method for computing these percentages utilizes the average of
the values for each business cycle as a base to avoid the upward bias in the
conventional method of computing percentage changes. For this reason the
figures in this table may appear inconsistent with those in other tables
where the conventional method of computing percentage changes is used.
•"•The cycles from March 1892 to January 1920 are based on the Babson index
of physical volume of business activity; the cycles from February 1920 to the
present are based on the Federal Reserve Board's index of industrial production. The cycle between November 1943 and July 1948 has been omitted from
3
this table.
Computed without regard to sign.
Latest date for which
data are available, not necessarily a specific peak.
TABLE 6. Business Cycles in Industrial Production Since 1892
(Average per-month rates of change and variation about these averages. This table is based upon
specific cycles in industrial production, measured from peak to peak)
Average per-month change
Business cycles
17 cycles, 1892 to 1969 1
3 cycles, 1892 to 1903...
5 cycles, 1903 to 1920
5 cycles, 1920 to 1943
4 cycles, 1948 to 1969l
Standard deviation
ContracContraction and
tion and
Contrac- Expansion expansion Contrac- Expansion expansion
(without
tion
tion
(without
regard to
regard to
sign)
sign)
-1.33
-1.45
-1.13
-1.84
-0.69
+1.04
+0.89
+1.20
+1.41
+0.65
1.12
1.03
1.18
1.53
0.66
0.68
0.17
0.69
0.58
0.28
0.45
0.12
0.45
0.38
0.19
0.46
0.18
0.30
0.42
0.18
NOTE: The method for computing these percentages utilizes the average of
the values for each business cycle as a base to avoid the upward bias in the
conventional method of computing percentage changes. For this reason the
figures in this table may appear inconsistent with those in other tables
where the conventional method of computing percentage changes is used.
x
ln order to complete this table, it was assumed that a specific peak
occurred in June 1969, the latest month for which data were available.
103
TABLE 7. Growth in Industrial Production Since 1892
A. Average Annual Rates of Growth for Each Business Cycle
Average annual rates of
change with regard
to sign1
Specific cycle dates
Trough
retardations of expansion. This was recognized on the basis of
the earlier experience, before the 1962 episode occurred. For
example, in 1957, Frank A. Morris wrote, "There is no questioning
the fact that the sensitivity of the leading series to a leveling;-off
period in the economy places the burden on the user of the
indicators of distinguishing between modest adjustment periods
and major cyclical movements." 4
Peak
March 1892
November 1895
June 1900
July 1903
May 1907
March 1910
January 1913
May 1917
........ January 1920
October 1893
September 1896
October 1900,
December 1903
May 1908
January 1911
November 1914
March 1939
-0.60
+4.92
+7.6B
+6.24
+1.44
+4.32
+5.88
+2.52
February 1920
May 1923
. . March 1927
July 1929
May 1937
November 1941
April 19?1
July 1924
November 1927
July 1932
May 1938
+4.32
+2.04
+7.20
+0.96
+12.84
July 1948
October 1949
Aprjj 1954
„,...
April 1958
February 1961 .........
j y j y 1953
+6.24
February 1957
January 1960
Jung 1969 ^
+2 64
+2 88
+4.92
B. Average Annual Rates of Growth for Groups of Business Cycles
Average change with regard to
sign (annual rates)
Business cycle groups
All cycles
17 cycles (1892-1969) 2
3 cycles (1892-1903)
5 cycles (1903-1920)
5 cycles (1920-1943)2
4 cycles (194H969)
War cycles
omitted3
+3.55
+3.BB
+4.39
+5.46
+4.56
+3.88
+3.86
+2.68
+4.03
engaged in war. Examples are the downturn of economic activity
In August 1918, 3 months before the end of World War I and the
downturn of February 1945, 3 months before the end of the
European phase of World War II and 6 months before the end of
the Japanese phase. Of course, the ends of these wars may have
been in sight when these declines took place, and the prospects
that the wars would soon end very likely contributed to the onset
of these recessions.
THREATS TO EXPANSION
Two significant threats to the current expansion occurred
during the period under review, one in 1962 and the other in
1966-67. In both cases, declines in the leading indicators were
followed by a slowing down of the rate of growth of aggregate
economic activity. This pattern raises the question, why were
these declines in the leading indicators followed by retardations
leather Ehan recessions?
The leading series represent, in part, decisions that affect
future production and employment. Thus, declines in new orders
and new business formation reflect decisions that may result in
reductions in employment and production some months later. On
the other hand, coinciders represent decisions that pertain more
immediately to current production, sales, prices, employment, and
income.
Declines in the leading series are often followed by recession,
but sometimes they are followed by minor setbacks or only
Consequently, the period immediately after the leading indicators shows a clearly defined downward trend is critical for
antirecession actions. This is the most opportune time to
neutralize the effects of adverse decisions regarding future
activity. If appropriate measures are taken then, relatively little
may be required. If action is not taken at that time, massive
action to reverse the prevailing trends may be necessary later.
However, the early response must not be overdone, since in the
late stages of a business boom or early stages of contraction it
is easy to awaken or reawaken the forces of inflation.
1. The 1962 Episode
+4.71
WC/rE: The method for computing these percentages utilises the average of
tho valueo for each business eyele ao a base to avoid the upward bias in the
conventional method of computing percentage ehanges. For this reason the
figures in this table may appear inconsistent with those in other tables
whoro tho conventional method of computing percentage changes is used.
2
^-Measured from pealc to peak,
In order to complete this table, it was
auBUfRGd that a specific! peak occurred
in June 1969, the latest month for
3
which data are available.
Exeludes war-time cyelee: 1913-17; 1937-43;
1940-33.
104
There is a feedback from decisions involving future production
to decisions involving current production, and vice versa. During
the interval when a cyclical decline in the leading series is evident
but the coincident series are still rising, unfavorable decisions
with respect to future activity may, to some extent, be offset by
the favorable decisions with respect to current production. Thus
as long as there are widespread rises in production, sales, prices,
incomes, and employment, business sentiment will tend to remain
relatively favorable. Once aggregate economic activity begins to
decline, however, the backlog of unfavorable decisions with respect
to future activity is augmented by the practical and psychological
effects of declines in production, sales, employment, incomes, and
prices. The result is an acceleration of die cumulative forces of
the business cycle.
A number of important leading indicators started to decline
during the winter of 1961-62, including prof it margins, investment
in materials inventories, new incorporations, sensitive materials
prices, and stock prices. However, the sensitive employment
indicators, new orders for machinery and equipment, and commercial and industrial construction contracts, reached high points
later, mostly in March or April, while some indicators, such as
corporate profits, did not decline at all. As a group, the complex
of leading activities appears to have reached a peak in February.
It should be noted, however, that the typical pattern in the
leading indicators during periods of expansion consists of some
declines along with many rises. It may have been the case that
the declines in the leading indicators before April were essentially
random and that the difficulties which developed in 1962 were, in
fact, brought to a head by two developments: the steel price
controversy in April and the sharp stock market decline the next
month. Nevertheless, the weight of the evidence is that cyclical
weakness in the leading indicators started be fore the so events,
The 1962 decline in the leaders was much smaller and shorter
than those which occurred in advance of the post-World War II
recessions, as can be seen in BCD chart B7 (see p. 34, this issue)
and table 8. However, the widespread nature of this decline and
its magnitude suggested that it was cyclical. This view is supported
by the fact that the decline in the leading indicators was not
accompanied by a simultaneous decline in the coincident indicators
and the lagging indicators, which would have been expected if the
cause were an irregular event. In the absence of countervailing
forces, a decline in aggregate economic activity might, therefore,
have been expected to follow. One may appropriately ask, therefore, why a recession did not take place.
To begin with, it should be noted that in contrast to the performance of the leading indicators around recessions, the 1962
decline was short lived; it was arrested after only 2 months. The
low may be dated in June, though during the period from July to
4
Frank A. Morris, "The Predictive Value of tho National Bureau's
Leading Indicators," Ch. 4, Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H.
Moore, Ed., National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, 1961.
Sec also p. 79, ibid.
TABLE 8. Duration and Magnitude of Declines in an Index of the Leading
Indicators in the Post-World War II Period
Trough date
Peak date
June 1948
January 1953
December 1956
January 1960
April 1962
March 1966
June 1949
January 1954
February 1958
December 1960
June 1962
February 1967
Percent decline
from peak to
trough
Duration (months
from peak to
trough)
12
12
14.3
8.6
14
11
2
11
9.8
5.2
1.8
5.2
NOTE: The reverse trend adjusted index of the leading indicators published in the July 1969 issue of BCD was used for this computation. See
also, "Reverse Trend Adjustment of Leading Indicators" by Julius Shiskin,
Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1967, pp. 45-49.
November 1962, most of the leading indicators fluctuated about
a horizontal or slightly rising level. In December, the increases
were more vigorous, and they continued through 1963 and beyond.
Earlier periods are in sharp contrast; declines of the leaders
started in advance of recession and then continued for many
months. Nevertheless, until the late autumn of 1962 the behavior
was similar to that which preceded earlier recessions.
The principal factors which can be advanced to explain the
arrest of the decline and the subsequent rise in the leading
indicators are (1) the threat of a steel strike in 1963, (2) Government counter-cyclical policy actions, (3) the Cuban crisis, and
(4) the continuing strength of consumer demand.
First, the prospect of a steel strike in the background was
favorable to expansion, because it led to inventory accumulation
of steel to avoid shutdowns in steel-consuming industries.
Secondly, various Government measures were helpful. They
consisted of the issuance by the Government of accelerated
depreciation guidelines, the passage of the tax credit for plant
and equipment investment, the acceleration in Government spending
in the fourth quarter of 1962, and the increase in the money
supply. The frequent assurances in the summer and autumn of
1962, by President Kennedy and other Government officials,
of sympathetic treatment for the business community, and the
announced plan for seeking a tax reduction also were helpful.
Thirdly, the Cuban crisis at the end of October contributed to
the forces of expansion at a critical period. The slight rise in
prices that resulted, and the expectations of military activity
provided additional stimulus.
Finally, the continued rise in consumer expenditures was
favorable to continued expansion. Typically, consumer expenditures rise until output reaches a peak and sometimes for
a short period after the peak. In the light of this record, one should
ask whether the continued rise in consumer expenditures was an
independent factor promoting expansion in 1962, or whether it
merely reflected the Government actions. Automobiles, however,
may be on a separate footing from other consumer expenditures.
The timing of the sharp increase in automobile sales starting in
the first 10 days of October, that is, before the Cuban episode
took place, suggests that it may have been an autonomous element.
These factors may have contributed enough in a delicate
situation to shift the balance from recession to expansion. The
appropriate timing of these combined events was probably more
significant in this instance than their magnitude. Moreover, the
recovery from the 1960-61 recession, which itself prematurely
interrupted the recovery from the 1957-58 recession, was still in
its early stages with the unemployment rate a round 5-1/2 percent.
The behavior of the lagging indicators during this period is
also noteworthy. The moderation of the increase sin these series,
to which attention has been drawn earlier, formed part of the
background in which the decline in the leading indicators took
place. Unit labor costs, inventories, the consumer debt, and
mortgage yields rose earlier in the expansion, but the increases
were modest and in most cases previous high levels had not been
exceeded. It is noteworthy, however, that at about the same time
in 1962 when the index of leading indicators declined, the ratio of
lagging to coincident rose.
Although the broadest indicators of aggregate economic
activity— GNP in current dollars, employment in nonagricultural
establishments, and retail sales--all rose throughout 1962, other
coincident series reflected, in the second half of the year, the
earlier decline in the leading indicators. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments and industrial production leveled off
about the middle of the year and the total unemployment rate,
the unemployment rate of married men, and the insured unemployment rate all rose. The performance of some of these
series during this period is shown in chart 1.
At the time early warning signals were flashing in 1962, the
threat to continued expansion seemed ominous indeed, even though
the declines in the leading indicators were small and brief and
the reaction in the coincident indicators was mild. The prospective
difficulties were clearer in the diffusion indexes. As can be seen
in chart 1, panel 2, many employment and production series began
to decline shortly after the turn of the year. Similarly, many
wholesale price series declined from mid-1962 to the beginning of
1963, and the rate of increase in consumer prices also slowed
down. The qualms widely expressed in the spring of 1962 no
doubt reflected the recession psychology which Jiad become part
of the economic outlook. The fears may have been premature
and unwarranted, but they did lead to expansive Government
policy actions (see chart 3, part A) which may not have staved
off a recession, but at least stimulated further expansion.
It is clear from the statistical record that there was no
recession in 1962; i.e., there was no extended, widespread, and
substantial decline in the complex of activities which in the past
have been used to define the business cycle. But some important
coincident activities leveled off and others showed some actual
declines. The net effect was a retardation in aggregate economic
activity which lasted about 6 months, from July 1962 to January
1963.
2. The 1966-67 Episode
A second and more serious threat to, continued expansion
occurred in 1966-67. The leading indicators, as a group, reached
a peak in March 1966 and continued to decline until the early
months of 1967. The composite index of the leading indicators
declined for 11 months, reaching a low in February 1967. The
percentage decline (5.2 percent) was (somewhat lower than that
which preceded the recessions of 1948, 1953, and 1957, but was
just equal to that preceding the 1960 recession (see table 8).
The index of coincident indicators rose throughout 1966,
leveled off at the beginning of 1967, and remained approximately
level during the first 5 months of that year. GNP (1958 dollars)
rose until the fourth quarter of 1966 and declined slightly in the
first quarter of 1967. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments
declined irregularly from February through April 1967 (see
chart 1).
These figures indicate that a serious threat to continued
expansion developed in 1966 and early 1967, and that a short
pause in real aggregate economic activity actually took place.
As can be seen by the declines in the diffusion indexes for nonagricultural employment and for industrial production, some
industries actually suffered significant absolute declines (see
chart 1). No doubt some geographic a re as we re similarly affected.
But in terms of the effect upon the national economy, the pause
in expansion was neither of the magnitude, duration, nor scope
required to qualify as a recession, and none was declared by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, the accepted authority
in this field.
The pause in aggregate economic activity during the first part
of 1967 was the net result of the balancing out of two sets of
forces--weakness in the private sector of the economy offset by
expansionary developments in the public sector. The weakness
in the private sector is generally attributed to the inventory
adjustment and the cost-price-profits situation. Thus, the change
in business inventories rose in the first two quarters of 1966,
declined in the third quarter, and then rose excessively in the
fourth quarter (about $20 billion compared to $9.7 billion at the
105
CHART 1
CYCUCAL INDICATORS IN THE 1962 AND 1967 RETARDATIONS
PART 2: 1965-69
PARTI: 1961-64
I
I
I
820. Comp. index of 5
indicators
coinci
(index 1963-100)
110
041. Employees on nonag.
payrolls
100
i
T
Diffusion indexes (percent
rising; 6-mo. span}2
120
Arith.
scale
M l
Diffusion indexes (percent
rising; 6-mo. span)2
820. Comp. index of 5
coincident indicators
(index: 1963=100)
I
100
m
50
70D
650
600
550
0
I
041, Employees on nonag. payrolls
200. GNP in cur. dol., Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
047. Industrial production
100
50
-i600
-J550
0
Jsoo
058. Wholesale prices,
manufactured goods
058. Wholesale prices,
manufactured goods
100
, nonag.estab.
, bil. man-hours)
50
0
41. Employees on nonag.
payrolls (millions)
-i i
j,
781. Consumer pr ces, all items
2
1
0
55. Wholesale prices,
industrial commodities
1
0
47. Industrial production
(index: 1957-59=100)
55. Wholesale prices,
industrial commodities
43. Unemployment rate, total
(percent--inverted scale)
\
3 q
-1
210. Implicit price deflator, Q1
781. Consumer prices, alMtems1
(index: 1957-59=100)
210. Implicit price deflator, Q 1
20
10
0
1961
1962
1963
1961
1964
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
NOTE: Areas between the rows of dots represent retardation m aggregate ecisrac sctJMty. Nasals adjacent to ictEgs are Ste series tetsfxatcan m~bers ^setf inn Business Cgr.difes Digest
1
Seasonally adjusted by Bureau of the Cejss^s.
2
Plotted at center of span.
Numerate in tlie squares indicate istesf EQnSfo of Cartel Eissl
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Ratio scales are useu unless otherwise indicated.
end of 1965). The difficulties created by this inventory '-overhang"
were compounded by the fact that, because of the slow re lease of
the inventory statistics, the extent of the rise was not known
until several months after it had taken place. Unit labor costs,
which had been virtually level from 1961 to 1965, began to rise
sharply early in 1966 and continued to rise throughout the year.
As a result, profit margins declined and aggregate prof its leveled
off. However, other economic processes were also involved--e.g.,
housing starts, construction contracts and new orders declined.
Indeed, all the leading indicator sector indexes began; to decline
in the first quarter of 1966. Thus the decline in 1966 was widely
diffused, a characteristic of cyclical movoments.
It is to be noted that both the rate of change in the money
supply and the national income accounts deficit began to decline
in late 1965, before the decline in the index of leading indicators
began in April 1966. While the declines in the economic policy
variable were slight in the early stages, so was that of the leading
indicator index. The coincident index leveled off in the first
quarter 1967, but, as explained above, there was no recession in
the familiar sense. The reason appears to be mainly that actions
favorable to expansion in aggregate economic activity ^ere begun
a few months after the leading indicators started their decline.
Thus the reduction in the rate of change in the money Supply was
reversed sharply in autumn of 1966 and the rate of increase
reached a high level early in 1967. The budget deficit began to
increase about the same time. Late in 1966, after the rises in
these economic policy variables had begun, the decline in the
leading indicator index leveled off; and early in 1967 this index
began to rise (see chart 2). The leads of the economic policy
variable over the leading indicator index was unusually short at
both turns, perhaps because money and the budget moved in
Chart 2
ECONOMIC POLICY VARIABLES AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS, 1965-67
810.
Index of twelve leading indicators, reverse
trend adjusted (1963 = 100)
-|135 o
Jl25 *
85. Change in money supply
, rate, percent)
10
0)
u
I
0
-2
-15
•M
High employment surplus or
deficit (fail, dol., ann.
rate, inverted scale)
-5
850
200. GNP in current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bit. dol.)
800 c>
§o
750 I
->700
1965
1966
1967
NOTE: Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5
coincident indicators.
Numerals adjacent to titles are the series identification numbers used in Business Conditions Digest.
During 1966 there was some abatement of the inflationary
pressures that had been developing (chart 1, part 2, panel 2).
However, the expansionary policy actions taken during the first
part of 1967 not only brought the threat of recession to an end,
but also led to a renewal of inflationary pressures.
If the role of the leading indicators is to provide early
warning signals that suggest the need for policy measures to
avert recession, they seem to have filled their role effectively
in both the 1962 and 1966-67 episodes. Although activities in the
private sector contributed to the renewal of expansion, especially
in 1962, and the downward forces were resisted by the strong
underlying growth forces, it seems clear that governmental
economic policy actions helped to stave off a decline in real GNP.
These episodes also illustrate how the leading indicators, and
especially the new composite index, can aid economists in
understanding the sequence of economic events and in forming
judgments on the need for expansive or restrictive policies.
3. The Role of Retardations
There have been retardations in other expansions. Indeed
such movements seem to have been more or less characteristic
of expansions since the latter half of the 19th century. For
example, there were retardations in the expansions of 1888-90,
1894-95, 1897-99, 1924-26, and 1933-37. There also were
retardations during other recent expansions, specifically those of
1949-53 and 1954-57. Indeed this pattern has been so common
that Wesley C. Mitchell, the father of business cycle analysis,
concluded that the typical course of an expansion is a vigorous
rise during the first stage, a pause during the middle stage, and
another advance (but at a slower rate than in the first stage) at
the end.
12
2
5 -10
conformity during this period. Other counter-cyclical measures
taken during this period are shown in chart 3 to fill in this bit of
economic history. During 1966, when the leading indicators were
going down, many restrictive actions were taken. At the beginning
of 1967, however, there was a reversal in policy and, at least for
the first 6 months, a series of expansionary actions was taken.
Thus Government policy actions appear to have been a major
factor in forestalling a recession in 1967.
The fact that the retardation during the 1949-53 expansion
(45 months) was of longer duration than that which occurred in
the 1954-57 expansion (35 months) suggests that retardation may
have a role in prolonging the period of expansion. Also, there are
some who argue that the recession of 1960-61 was so mild and of
such brief duration that it differed little from a retardation, and
that the present expansion can be dated as beginning in April 1958.
(Under the NBER method of identifying business cycle turning
points, however, the movement from May I960 to February 1961
is classified as a recession because there was an absolute,
extended, and wide-spread decline in economic activity, at least
as large in magnitude as in some other instances identified as
recessions.) While movements during which aggregate activity
advances less rapidly but does not decline are classified as
retardations, the same kinds of forces of revival may arise from
retardations as from recessions, and probably tend to prolong
expansions.
This is not to say that retardations are necessary for continued
expansion. But corrections of imbalances are necessary, and
such corrections will hopefully result in nothing worse than
retardations. A better way, of course, is for the economy to
proceed on an upward path, with all the different forces maintaining reasonable balance. Then neither recession nor retardation need occur.
BALANCES AND IMBALANCES
In appraising the overall performance during the first 44
months of the present expansion, my earlier paper contains the
following comment:
"There can be no doubt from this review of the record of the
current expansion that it has differed in several important
respects from its predecessors. First, the economic processes
107
CD
CO
Chart 3
CHRONOLOGY OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY ACTIONS RELATED TO THE
COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Part A: 1960-64
Ratio Scale
" 120
-115
-110
-n120
Index of 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted (1963=100)
-115
-110
Nov.-Discount rote raised j
Feb.-Reductions in income tax rates become effective,
personal taxes cut by 20%, corporation taxes cut
by about 8%,
rate raised^
Jan.-President proposes permanent reduction in income
tax rates of all individuals and corporations.
Jan.-Social Security tax raised. [
Nov.-Time deposit reserve requirements reduced^
Nov.-Special veterans insurance dividend of $328 million!
arrtounced for payment in Jan., 1963,
[Oct.-Investment tax credit enocted.1
| Sept.-Pubiic worKs Act signed authorizing $900 million
I
for public projects.
Aug.-P resident announces decision to ask for broad tax
Index of 5 coincident indicators, estimated
reforms and reductions in T963.
July-Revised tax depreciation schedules is sued.1
aggregate economic activity (1963=100)
Jon-Social Security tax raised!
July-Special life insurance dividend ($218 million
paid to veterans.
[
June-Federal Housing Act passed with 4 years, 52.5 billion"
<l^fnmitfT>ent for urban renewal.
June-Social Security benefits increased]
May-Area Redevelopment Act signed to provide financial
aid to areas of extreme unemployment,
May-Maximum interest rote on FHA home loons reduced.)
PROBABLE EFFECT ON ECONOMY
Apr.-President recommends investment tax credit.
JApr.-SBA reduces interest rates on loans to small business.
® Expansionary
Mnximiim interest rate on FHA home loans reduced, 1
Feb.-$258 million payment of veteran's insurance
accelerated.
0 Restrictive
jFebrPresIdenf announces program to restore momentum j
to the economy.
___^
I
reserve requirement reduced!
Sept.-Demand deposit reserve requirement reduced
Jan.-Spcial Security tax rat
TT1 1 i i i f
JAN
MAR
MAY
JUL
I I I I I I I I
SEP
I960
NOV
JAN
MAR
MAY
JUL
1961
SEP
NOV
JAN
MAR
MAY
JUL
1962
SEP
NOV
I I I I I I I I I I I
JAN
MAR
MAY
JUL
1963
SEP
KCV
I M I I I I
JAK
MAR
MAY
JUL
1964
SEP
NOV
JAN
MAR
1965
MAY
Chart 3
CHRONOLOGY OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY ACTIONS RELATED TO THE
COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDICATORS-continued
Part B: 1965-69
Index of 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted (1963=100)
-i 170
-M65
Apr.-rresident proposes income
tax surcharge be lowered
in January 1970.
Apr .-President proposes
investment tax credit be
suspended immediately.
Apr.-Demand deposit reserve
requirements raised.
Apr .-Discount rate raised. I
Dec-Discount rate raised.
Aug.-Discount rate reduced.l
June-President signs law providing surcharges on
income taxes.
Apr.-Discount rate raised.|
Mar-Discount rate raised.!
Mar.-Social Security benefits increased.|
Jon.-Demand deposit reserve requirements raised.]
Jan.-Social Security wage base increasedj
Nov.-Discount rate raised4
Aug.-President recommends surcharge on income taxes.
July-51.6 billion of frozen Federal highway funds released.)
Index of 5 coincident indicators, estimated
June-Restoration of investment tax credit.]
Apr.-Discount rote reduced.)
aggregate economic activity (1963=100)
Mar.-President recommends restoration
of investment tax credit.
Mar-Time deposit reserve requirements
Feb.-51 1/2 billion of frozen Federal funds released
between February 27 and April 8.
Jan.-Social Security tax raisedj
^ov.-Presldent orders Federal spending cutback.!
PROBABLE EFFECT ON ECONOMY
Oct.-Suspension of investment tax credit. |
Sept.-President announces anti-inflation program.!
Sept.-Time deposit reserve requirements raised. J
© Expansionary
July-Time deposit reserve requirements raised!
Way-Income tax payments accelerated.
Mar.-Partlal restoration of excise taxj
G Restrictive
Jan-Excise tax reduced.)
Jan.-Social Security tax raised. |
Dec.-Plscount rote raised.]
Sept.-Soclal Security benefits increased. I
Aug.-53 1/4 billion In grants and loans
authorized for public works In depressed areas.
June-Excise tax reduced.]
JAN
MAR
MAY
JUL
1965
SEP
NOV
JAN
MAR
MAY
JUL
1966
SEP
NOV
JAN
MAR
MAY
JUL
1967
SEP
NOV
JAN
MAR
MAY
JUL
1968
SEP
NOV
JAN
MAR
MAY
SEP
1969
NOV
-1160
CHART 4
COMPARISONS OF THE PERFORMANCE OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS DURING TWO PERIODS OF THE CURRENT EXPANSION:
FEB. 1961 TO JUNE 1965 AND JULY 1965 TO DATE
1
Percent
200. Gross notional product
in current dollars
h i f s jiPercent *
55. Wholesale prices, industrial
commodities
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
WQ/65-MQ/69
IQ/61-HQ/65
115
105
160
150
140
130
100
120
110
7/65-6/69
7/65-6/69
2/61-6/65^
781.
100
Index of consumer prices
CNP in 1958 dollars
130
125
120
7/65-6/69
110
IQ/6U IIQ/65
140
100
120
100
210.
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
56/69
62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, mfg.
Implicit price deflator '
IIIQ/65-IIQ/69
120
120
115
115
7/65-6/69
110
2/61-6/65
100
48. Man-hours in nonagri.
establishments
iinmnimiiiilimilnnilninlimilimimiH
6
12
18 24
30
36 42
48 54
Scales for calendar time:
19SS
1967
1SSS
SSS9
JUL
j
:BJUL
FEBJ
L
1361
JUL
1962
JUL
L
J!N
J!N JUL
1963
19S4
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54
Months from benchmark dates
Scales for calendar time:
1S££
i3S?
BSI
1969
1355
95
90
500. Merchandise trade balance '
(MiL doU 4-term moving
average)
2/61-6/65
6
JUL
JUL
IflM
V
1961
J3S2
S9S3
100
2 |
264.
•i
Federal Government purchases
of goods and services, national
defense
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
IIIQ/65-1IQ/69
u
7 tjj
0
1985
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
Months from benchmark dates
Scales for calendar time:
19S5
\m
19S8
12 18 24 30 36 42 48
Months from benchmark dates
Scales for calendar time:
19SS
198?
1SS8
1SS9
1955
J
JUL Jf JUL Jf JUL T JUL T
I
I I I I I I I
JUL
6
54
J
I9S4
ISS5
1961
1%
' L^
1954
1SS3
1965
JUL
J
I
1962
ML. m ^
1963
1954
JiHL
I9S5
NOTE: Nu":era3s adiacent to ttttes are tte seises ijtertiSicatsarj "i;r.fesrs used ED 3iiiS5uess Ccsirfiijpyts Digest. Ks*s® S'tates are mssd ^Ssss clJ-siwiss indicated.
1
Peice.Tt erf series ieveSs si the SientSj^ik cajiths cf fesrasiy for 1st parte;) 1951 s^d J^y fm 3d Cartel) 1955.
*
a
u
4 o
jL
1965
100
,2/61-6/65
iTfnIiimliiiiiliimmmliiiiilimnnmiinii
0
JUL -*Solsd liEe*-jyL
JUL
110
105
6 I
2/61-6/65
Months from benchmark dates
1965
115
7/65-6/69
0 I
IIIQ/65-
0
95
Ratio, inventories to sales,
manufacturing and trade
105
67. Bank rates on short-term
business loans, 35 cities3
(Percent)
7/65-6/69
115
110
105
100
851.
100
95
43. Unemployment rate, total
(percent—inverted scale) 3
100
2/61-6/65
2/61-6/65
110
105
105
7/65-6/I
110
160
105
47. Industrial production
2/61-6/65
115
105
200
180
115
115
110
105
100
IIIQ/65-IIQ/69
J/65-6/69
16. Corporate profits after taxes
120
10/61 -IIQ/65
i Percent1
S530 Kctio, production of business
equipment to consumer goods
110
100
205.
HHnigggggjMii'hfHfiHHiiig'i'g'nii'ffhHiriHift'nii^ ercent
0; Contracts and orders for
piant and equipment
2
SfeassHyEy ajijisted fcy S-nesa of ifte Census.
3
tones jejresert actisaD efeta ra5?5ei tteu peicerfages sf Sse^-srk (refeie^s) c^th CeveSs.
which reflect excesses, =such as costs and inventories, have held
to a relatively favorable level throughout. Similarly, wholesale
prices have been stable. The principal fiscal and monetary
series—the deficit in the budget, interest rates, and the rate of
change in the money supply—have all held steady."
What can we say a bout the per for ma nee of these same economic
processes during the succeeding 56 months? To facilitate such a
comparison, various indicators of balance and imbalance are shown
in chart 4. There are two starting points in this chart--February
1961, when the expansion got underway, and July 1965, when
imbalances first began to appear.
The first panel of this chart shows several measures of
aggregate economic activity. While there was not much difference
in the performance of current-dollar GNP or total man-hours
during these two periods, physical output and prices behaved
quite differently. Physical output (as measured by GNP in 1958
dollars) rose vigorously during the earlier period, at an annual
rate of 6.2 percent, and more moderately, 4.5 percent per year,
during the second period, as can be seen in table 9. On the other
hand, prices (as measured by the Implicit Price Deflator of GNP)
rose slowly during the earlier period, at an annual rate of only
1.5 percent, and more rapidly, at 3,9 percent per year,, during
the second period. Inasmuch as the increases in total man-hours
were about the same during both periods (3.2 and 3.4 percent per
year, respectively), the slackening in the rate of increase of
physical output can be attributed in large part to changes in
productivity. This is borne out by the index of output per manhour which increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent during the
first period, but rose only 2.3 percent per year during the later
period.
Average annual rate of growth (percent)--
Composite index of 5 coinciders
Gross National Product:
Total current dollars Q
Total, 1958 dollars, Q
Per capita, 1958 dollars, Q
Industrial production
Man-hours, nonagri. estabs
Nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate total1.
Retail sales
Wholesale prices
Date of last
specific
trough
Feb. 1961 . . .
During current expansion (specific trough
to June 1969)
From
specific
trough to
June 1965
10.0
12.6
From
July 1965
to
June 1969
10.4
IVQ 1960. . . .
IQ1961
IQ 1961
9.9
6.1
4.3
7.6
6.2
4.4
9.0
4.5
3.3
Feb. 1961...
Dec. 1960...
Feb. 1961 . . .
May 1961....
IQ1961 2 ....
Apr. 1961 . . .
2
Feb. 1961 ..
2
Feb. 1961 ..
2
Feb. 1961 ..
IQ19612....
8.2
3.6
3.8
0.5
3.6
7.7
1.6
1.5
2.7
2.7
8.8
3.2
3.1
0.6
4.1
7.4
1.9
0.4
1.4
1.5
5.2
3.4
3.9
0.3
2.3
5.7
1.1
2.6
4.1
3.9
•
Inverted series. Since this series moves counter to general business
activity, declines are considered as increases and increases are considered
as declines. Measures2 shown are average annual differences rather than
percent changes.
Date of last reference trough. Since no specific cycle
corresponding to the most recent reference cycle is discernible in this
series, measures are talcen from the reference trough date.
While rates of expansion in aggregate economic activity during
these two periods were not much different, the excesses and
imbalances, which were conspicuous by their absence during the
first 4 years, were conspicuously present in 1965-69.
As can be seen in chart 4, the stability in labor cost and cost
of business loans came to a halt in 1965, and both these indicators
have risen vigorously, though unevenly, since then. The ratio of
inventories to sales, which at first had been declining fairly
steadily, as businessmen gained confidence in the prospects of
continued business expansion, rose abruptly and very sharply
from April 1966 to February 1967. Similarly, the ratio of
production of business equipment to consumer goods, which
had risen slowly during the first 4 years, rose much more
rapidly in 1965 and 1966. The same pattern prevailed for the
Many of the imbalances that developed during 1965 and 1966
were corrected in 1967 though the retardation of 1967 was, as
described earlier, so mild and so short-lived that significant
imbalances remained at its end. Starting from a more unfavorable
base in 1967, the imbalances have been growing again during the
past 2 years. Thus the period of economic growth and stability
which prevailed from 1961 to 1964 was replaced, starting in 1965,
by the more familiar cyclical pattern of spreading imbalances
throughout the economy.
THE SITUATION TODAY
It seems appropriate to close this paper with a few observations on the state of the expansion today; specifically, is the
end in sight?
TABLE 9. Average Annual Rate of Growth of Selected
Economic Indicators, 1961-1969
Economic indicator
ratio of unfilled orders to shipments (not shown in the chart). As
these imbalances developed, more and more trouble spots showed
up in the economy. These trouble spots were more visible,
and more painful, in the performance of wholesale and consumer
prices. Consumer prices, which rose slowly during the first
period, rose rapidly and at an increasing rate in the later period.
The trade balance, which had been favorable for many years,
has continued to decline since late 1964; and beginning in February
1968 several months have shown unfavorable balances. The
change in the money supply, which had been fairly steady during
the first 4 years of the expansion, fluctuated sharply from 1966
to 1968. The NIA budget, which had fluctuated within a narrow
range around zero, began to fluctuate more widely in 1964, and
went into deep deficit in 1966. National defense purchases, which
were almost steady from 1961 to early 1965, rose very sharply
towards the end of 1965 and through 1966 as the U.S. participation
in the Vietnamese conflict escalated.
At almost all times some activities in our vast and complicated
economy are rising and others are declining. For this reason it is
possible for one person to paint a favorable picture of the current
situation, by emphasizing the activities that are rising, while
simultaneously another person paints an unfavorable picture by
highlighting those activities that are declining. The task of the
analyst of current economic conditions is to weight objectively
the relative importance of the rising activities against those
declining, and to strike a net balance. In doing this he should
carefully distinguish between activities that will have a future
impact and those whose impact have already been felt.
To assist in making an objective and comprehensive evaluation
of current conditions and striking such a balance, I have been
using a " scoresheet," (table 10) based upon data published in BCD.
The scoresheet is set up in such a way as to help spot an impending
recession or retardation in aggregate economic activity (output,
employment, money flows, income, etc.). It has not been designed
with a view to detecting an end to inflation, or to resolving the
possible conflict of policy objectives associated with these
developments. Even as a recession detector it cannot be used in
a mechanical way. First, it does not attempt to cover all
relevant activities, especially exogenous events. Furthermore,
current trends in the key leading indicators are often uncertain
and it, is difficult to weigh the relative importance of various
factors. Certainly, the various groups listed cannot be given
equal weight. The order of the sectors listed has no special
significance. Consequently, in the end the analyst's judgment is
a critical factor. But the scoresheet does offer one way to make
a broad and systematic review of the current economic situation
and, by covering, one by one, the many different types of economic
activities which affect economic prospects, the scoresheet serves
as a control upon our prejudices and a discipline against preconceived and subconscious conclusions, while helping to guard
against inadvertent omissions or changes in emphasis.
Not all of the unfavorable developments listed on the scoresheet have happened before the end of every expansion in the past,
and not all of them are likely to occur before the end of this one.
Most are likely to occur, however, before the onset of recession.
When (and if) they do occur, this is likely to be clearly evident
on this scoresheet.
Ill
I have filled in this scoresheet for myself, and I shall tell
you where I have come out. But I leave the fun of filling out the
details to you, as a "do-it-yourself" exercise.
indicators are not signaling recession. Thus the concluding
installment of this review of the longest economic expansion in
U.S. history is still to be written.
I conclude from my entries, that, while some weakening both
in aggregate economic activity and the rate of increase in consumer
prices may be expected later this year, at this writing the
As I say this, I am reminded of a story I heard some years
ago. It was about a man who fell out of the 12th story window of a
high building. You will recall that as he went by the third scory, lie
shouted to a friend watching him fall, "So far, everthing is fine!1*
Table 10. SCORESHEET
EARLY WARNING SIGNALS OF RECESSION
Most recent
cyclical trend
Unfavorable Developments to Watch
Out for During Expansions
NarrowiriiC) in the scope of expansion-One of the most
firmly established findings of business cycle research is
that the scope of an expansion narrows before it ends.
Consequently, one of the early signs that an expansion
will come to an end is the development of many cross
currents in the economy, with expansion less widely
diffused among different industries, areas, and
economic processes.
a. Diffusion indexes of leaders (BCD Series D1, D5,
06, D11.D34, D19, D23)
b. Diffusion indexes of coinciders (D41, D47, D54,
D58)
Net balance
+ Favorable
- Unfavorable
? Uncertain
Most recent
cyclical trend
Unfavorable Developments to Watch
Out for During Expansions
4. Reduction in the net funds raised by borrowing or by
equity financing
a. Net change in the consumer installment debt (BCD
Series 113)
b. Net change in mortgage debt (33)
c. Change in bank loans to business (112)
Net balance
5- Reductions in profit margins, rises in business failures
and declines in stock prices
a. Profit margins (BCD Series 15, 16, 17, 22)
b. Business failures (14)
c. Stock prices (19)
Net balance
2
- Excesses and imbalances-Relatively sharp rises in
lagging indicators and imbalances in various sectors of
the economy will often be early warning signals of
subsequent declines in the leading indicators and then
in coincident economic activity. These include:
a. Rise;; in labor and other unit costs per unit of
output (BCD Series 62, 68)
6. Reductions in commitments for fixed captial investmenl
a. New orders for durable goods (BCD Series 6, 24)
b. Construction contracts (8,9,10)
c. Building permits and housing starts (7, 29)
d. Mew capital appropriations (11)
b. Rises in inventories (65)
e. Met business formation (12)
c. Rises in ratio of inventories to sales (851)
Net balance
d. Rises in ratio of production of business equipment
to consumer goods (853)
e. Rises in ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (854)
7. Softening market for goods
a. Reductions in buying for inventory (BCD Series 20,
31,37,245)
f. Rise in consumer debt (66)
b. Reduced rate of accumulation of order backlogs
(25, 96)
g. Rise in ratio of index of coincident to index of
lagging indicators (830; 820)
c. Reduced rate of accumulation of capital appropriations (97)
Net balance
d. Evidence of prompter deliveries (32)
e. More hand-to-mouth buying (26)
f. Declining prices for sensitive materials (23)
Net balance
3- Tightening of money
a. Rises in short-term interest rates (BCD Series 67
and 114)
b. Rises in long-term interest rates (115-118)
8. Easing in labor markets
a. Reduction in the average workweek (fiCD Series 1)
b. More layoffs (3)
c. Decline in free reserves (93)
c. Fewer vacancies (46)
d. Slower growth in the money supply (85, 98)
d. Fewer hirings (2, 4)
Net balance
Net balance
112
+ Favorable
- Unfavorable
? Uncertain
INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series/' following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
ily. jtnpiicii piice ueriaKH
217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
9,21,38
9,21,38,56
9
9
9
10
10
10
224. Disposable personal income, current dol
225. Disposable personal income, constant dol ... 10
226. Per capita disposable personal income,
10
current dol lars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
10
constant dollars
231.
232.
233.
234.
236.
237
11
11
Total, constant dol lars
11
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. . . 11
11
Automobiles, current dollars
11
Nondurable goods, current dollars
11
Services current dollars
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
12
240. Gross private domestic investment, total
241 Nonresidential fixed investment . .
.... 12
12
242 Nonresidential structures
......
12
12
12,26
5,65,71
5,65,71,87
5,65
5,65
5,65
Dec.
'69
Dec.
'69
Dec.
'69
July '.69
July '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct.
'69
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
July
July
Aug.
Aug.
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct.
'69
Oct. '69
5,65
Aug. '69
5,65
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
Aug.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug., '69
'69
'69
'69
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
'69
Oct. '69
A6. Gov. Purchoses, Goods and Services
260. Federal, State, and local governments
262. Federal Government
264. National defense
13,47
... 13,49
13,49
14
14
14,53
14
275. Change in business inventories,
nondurable goods
A8- National Income Components
280 Compensation of employees
284 Rental income of persons
286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj
288 Net interest
A9. Saving
290 Gross saving, private and government
292 Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296, Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit
83. Fixed Capital Investment
*12 Index of net business formation
. . . . 23,36
23
13 New business incorporations
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. .... 23,36
Apr. '68#
Mar. '68
Sep. '68 Sep.
'68
23
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . . .23,36
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
Sep.
'68
11.
24.
9.
7.
*29.
New capital appropriations • manufacturing .
New orders, mach. and equip, industries .
Constr. contracts, com. and indus
Private nonfarm housing starts
New bldg. permits, private housing
6,72
6,72
6,73
6,73
6,73
Aug. '67
Sep. '68 Sep. '68
Hay '67
Apr. '69
May '68
June '68 Apr. '69
96.
97.
*61.
69.
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries.' 25
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing . 25
Business expend., new plant and equip . . 25,39,40
.
Machinery and equipment sales and
25
business construction expenditures
6,73
6,73
7,73,79
Sep.
Aug.
Nov.
'68
'67
'68
7,73
Sep.
'68$ Sep.
7,66,74
Aug.
Dec.
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
69
'68
'68
'68
'68
32.
25.
*71.
65.
Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . .27
27
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . . .27,39
Book value, mfrs/ inven., finished goods . 27
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Jan.
Sep.
Jan.
Sep.
28,37
7,75
7,75
7,75
Apr. .'69 Apr. '69
June '69 May '69
July '69 July '68
28
28
28,37
7,75
7,75
7,75
July '69 July '6?
Mar. '69 Mar. '69
Nov. '68 Nov. '68
29
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods. . . .29,55
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
29
nonfinancial corporations
««
29,39
*62 Labor cost oer unit of output mfs« ....
7,75
7,75,86
June '69
June '69
June '69
June '69
7,75
7,75
July '69
Dec. '68
July '68
Nov. '68
30
30
30
30,37
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
Oct.
Oct.
Mar.
Jan.
'69 Aug. '68
'69 Aug. '68
'69
'69 July '64
30
31
31
31
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
June
Dec.
Feb.
June
'69 July '64
'69 July '64
'69
'69
32
32
32
32
7,77
7,77
7,77
7,77
Jan.
Apr.
June
Jan.
'68
'68 July '64
'68 July '64
'68 July '64
32
7,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
Jan.
Jan.
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
'68
'69
'69
'68
'68
July '64
6,78
Sep.
'69
Nov.
'68
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
Sep.
Jan.
Jan.
Sep.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Sep.
Nov.
Nov.
'69
'68
'68
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
May '69
May '69
May '69
5,67
5,67
5,67,85
5,67
Aug. '69
Aug.
'69
Dec.
'69
Dec.
'69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
5,67
Dec.
'69
Oct.
'69
5,67
5,67
Dec.
Dec.
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
15
5,67
Dec.
'69
Oct.
'69
16
16
16
16
16
5,67
5,67
5,67
5,68
5,68
Dec.
Dec.
'69
'69
Dec.. '69
Dec. '69
Dec.
'69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
17
17
5,68
5,68
Dec. '69
Dec. '69
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
17
17
17
5,68
5,68
5,68
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
'69
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23 Industrial materials prices
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
28,37
28,37,64
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
15 Profits per dollar of sales mfg
*17 Ratio price to unit labor cost fnfg. • * *
66. Money and Credit
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
*113.
Change in consumer installment debt
110 Total private borrowing
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans
114 Treasury bill rate
116 Corporate bond vields
.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Oct. '69
Mar, '69
Oct. '69
Mar. '69
Oct. '69
19
19
19
19,38
19
20,33
20
20
20,39
6,69
6,69
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
Mar.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
Mar.
Mar.
Oct.
Mar.
Mar.
49.
46
48.
*41.
42.
Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
HelD'wanted advertising
Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
Employees on nonagri. payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
45. Avg. .weekly insured unemptoy. rate
40. Unemployment rate, married males
*44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
Aug.
June
Aug.
June
Aug.
'68
' 69
'68
66
*72,
*67.
118.
33
Consumer installment debt
Com. and industrial loans outstanding . . .33,39
33,39
Bank rates on short-term bus, loans
33
Mortgage yields, residential
Sep.
'68
Nov.
'68
'68*
Oct.
Feb.
'69
'69
Sep.
'68
'68
'68 Sep.
'69 Feb.
'68 Sep.
'68
'69
'68
July '64
' 69
'68
'69
'69
June ' 69
'68#
Aug. '68f
Aug. '68
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
24
24
24,36
Sep.
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
5,67
5,67
5,67
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
24
.24
'68
12,26
26,37
26
26
26
Aug. '69
18,36
18
18
*5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance . . . 18,36
18
6,71
6,71
6,71
6,71
6,71
Change in bus. inventories, all indus
Change in mfg. and trade inventories
Purchased materials, higher inventories . .
Change in materials, supplies inventories .
Buying policy, production materials
15
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
4. Nonagri, placements, all industries
21,38
Wages, salaries in mining, mfg.r constr . . . 21
22,38
Manufacturing and trade sales
22
Fj n a| sales
22,38
Sales of retail stores
'69
'69
'68
'68
'68
'69
'68
245.
*31.
37.
20.
26.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
15
15
81. Employment and Unemployment
6,71,99
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
271. Change in business inventories, durable
21,38,63
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66,74
Aug.! '69
53.
*56
57'
*54
'69 Oct.
'69 Oct.
Dec. '68 Nov.
July '69 July
July '69 July
May '69
Feb.
July '69 July
May '69
9,21,38
6,65,71 Dec.
9,21,38,56 6,65,71,87 Dec.
*20Q. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
A5. Foreign Trade
9^9 Exoorts of soods and services . « •
Tables
B2- Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
A2. National and Personal Income
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Charts
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
m P W P in rnrrpnt rinllar^
9(1^ fiWP in 1QRR rlnllar<;
Current issue
(page numbers)
June ' 69
B7- Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj .
811. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse
trend adjustment
820- 5 coincident indicators
830. 6 lagging indicators
813. Marginal employment adjustments.
814. Capital investment commitments
815, Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability
817. Sensitive financial flows
.34
34
34
35
35
35
35
35
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
113
Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and fable titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series/' following this index)
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
416
Tables
Charts
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS~Con.
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Cl. Aggregate lories
410 Manufactures' sales total
412 Mfrs ' inventories book value
Current issue
(page numbers)
.
AdeQuacv 3f manufacturers' capacity. « « *
25,39,40
41
41
41
41
73,79
79
79
79
79
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68 Nov. '68
'68 Nov. '68
'68 Nov. '68
'68 Nov. '68
'68 Nov. '68
D4. Price Movements
781 Consurrer price index all items
783 Consumer price index commodities
784- Consurrer price index services
750. Wholesale price index, all commodities . .
420, Household income compared to year ago .... 42
425, Probability of change, household income ... 42
435 Index of consumer sentiment
42
42
79
79
79
79
Mar.
Nov.
'69
'68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
751. Wholesale price index, proc. foods, feeds. .
752, Wholesale price index, farm products
54,62
54
54
34
.55
29,53
35
55
m
May
May
May
May
8,86
86,75
86
86
June
Juno
Juno
Juno
It, 85
86
86
'69
'69
'69
'69
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
' 69
'69
' 69
Juno
Juno
June
June
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Oet.
'69
Doe. '69
May '69
Feb.
'69
E, ANALYTICAL MEASURES
C2. Diffusion Indexes
D440. New orders;, manufacturing
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade
0444 Net s^les manufacturing and trade
D446, Number of employees, mfg, and trade
D450. Uvel of inventories, mfg, and trade
D460, Selling prices mfg. and trade
0462 Sel 1 ing prices manufacturing
D466. Selling prices, retail trade
D480. Freight carloadings
43
43
43
43
80
80
80
80
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
'69
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
44
44
44
44
44
80
80
80
80
80
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
45
45
45
81
81
81
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
'69
'69
'69
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
46
46
8,82
8,82
May '69
May '69
46
46
46
8,82
8,82
8,82
Aug.'68# Aug. '68#
Apr. '69
May '69
May '69
47
8,83
July '69 May '69
47
47
8,83
83
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
506, Export orders, dur. goods exc, motor
508, Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
May '69
May '69
D2. Balance of Payments and Components
520. U.S. bal. of pmts., liquidity bal, basis
522, U,S* bal. of pmts,, official settlements
basis
525. Net capital movements, liquidity bal. basis. .
527, Net capital movements, official settlements
ba$j$
530, Liquid liabilities to foreigners
532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign
534, U.S, official reserve assets
252. Exports of goods and services
253. Imports of goods and services
47
13,47
83
83
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
48
83
July '69 May '69
48
48
13,49
13,49
83
83
83
83
July
July
July
July
49
49
83
83
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
540. Investment income, military sales, and
541, Foreigners' investment income, military
expend, and services imports
548.
549,
561.
560.
565.
564,
570,
575.
Receipts, transportation and services
Payments, transportation and services
U.S. direct investments abroad
Foreign direct investments in U.S
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Govt. gfants and capital transactions
Banking and other capital transactions
'69
'69
'69
'69
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
49
83
July '69 May '69
49
50
50
83
84
84
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
50
50
50
50
50
50
84
84
84
84
84
84
July
July
July
July
July
July
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
51
51
51
51
51
51
84
84
84
84
84
84
July
July
July
July
July
July
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
8,85
8,85
8,85
8,67,85
8,85
8,85
8,85
8,85
8,85
July
July
July
Dec.
Oct.
Oct.
Dec.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
July
July
July
Oct.
Dec.
'69
600, Fed, balance, nat'l income and prod. acct. . .52
601. Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod, acct • • 52
602. Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. • • 52
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement ....
New orders, defense products industries
New orders defense products
Military coitract awards in U.S
14,53
53
53
53
53
53
*The "number1 for this series titie was changed since the publication date shown,
114
9,21,38,56 6,65,71,87 Deo,
56
87
56
5,87
E2. Analytical Ratios
850, Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing. . .
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg, and trade .
852, Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
durables
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
Eioods ' * *
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
unfilled to persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm .
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers . .
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. .
857 Vacancy rate total rental housing
57
57
8,08
8,88
57
8,88
Sep.
'68
Sep.
'68
57
8,08
Dee.
'68
Nov.
'68
56
8,88
July '69
July '68
58
58
SB
8,88
8,88
8,88
Mar.
'69
Aug , ' 69
Aug.
'69
June ' 68
June '68
58
38
8,88
8,88
Aug. '69
Fob. '68
89,92
89,92
89
90
90,93
90,94
90,94
Nov.
Deo.
Deo.
Dee.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'69
'68
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
91,95
91,95
91,96
91,97
Nov.
Deo.
'69
'68
E3. Diffusion^lndexes
Dl. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg .... 59
59
D6. New orders durable goods industries
59
Dll. New capital appropriations mfg
59
D34 Profits manufacturing .
D23 Industrial materials prices
D5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance..
59
59
59
D41. Employees on nonagri, payrolls
60
D47 Industrial production » * « « * ...... .. 60
D58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods — 60
60
June '69
Nov.
Juno '68
May '69
'69
Juno '69
Apr.
June '69
'69
E5. Rates of Change
205,
820.
48.
54,
52,
47
55.
781
GNP in constant dollars
Composite index of 5 coincident indicators.
Man-hours in nonagri, establishments
Sales of retail stores
Personal income
Index of industrial production
Index of whsle. prices, indus. commodities
Index of consumer prices all items
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
'69
'69
'69
'69
Sop ' 69
Sep.
'69
Sep. '69
Sop. '69
Sep.
'69
Deo.
Deo.
Sep.
Sep.
Oet, '69
Oet.
'69
Nov.
'68
Aug.
'68#
July '68
'68
June '69
May '69
Nov.
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
D3. Federal Government Activities
621.
647,
648
625
El. Actual and Potential GNP
205. Actual GNP in 1958 dollars
206. Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
F1. Consumer Price Indexes
781 United States
133 Canada
132 United Kingdom
135. West Germany
136, France
138. Japan
137, Italy
98
98
98
90
98
98
98
May '69
Oet.
'67
Oot.
'67
Oot.
'67
Oet.
'67
Oet.
'67
Oet,
'67
May '69
F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47
123
122
126
125
128
121
127.
United States
Canada
United Kingdom
France .
West Geimany
Japan
OECD European countries
Italy
21,38,63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
Dea.
Dee.
Deo.
Deo.
Dee.
Deo.
Dee.
DQG.
'68
'69
'69
»69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
United Kingdom
France
West Germany
Japan
Italy
28,37,64
64
64
64
64
64
64
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Oet.
Oot.
Oct.
Oet.
Oet.
Oet.
Oet.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
May '69
142
146.
145.
148
147.
'68#
'68# F3. Stock Price Indexes
'68#
19. United Slates
'69
143 Canada
Sep.'*'68#
54,62
62
62
62
62
62
62
.....
....
'68
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk
H are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and
are obtained from the same sources.
244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4 r B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). •- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
{Al, B2, B8, E5)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8, El, E5)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). •- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). •• Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6.D3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
f A7)
274. Final sales, nondurable goods (Q). •• Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
284. Rental income of persons (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A8)
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
292. Personal saving (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). *- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
(A9)
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (Iff). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(B3, 88)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board (B3,E3)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, 88)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(83)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). -• Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(86)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). -- Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q), Office of Business Economics
Department of Commerce,
(B5, B8)
*17. Index of price per unit of labor cost •• ratio, index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to
seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees
(sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B5, 88)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). -- Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(B5, B&, 13, E4, F3)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). •- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
the Census
(B4)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B5)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).» Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(85, 88, E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(83)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
B Cyclical Indicators
(84)
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(81, B8, E3, E4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).
Bureau of Labor Statistics
*5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3, E4)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(83)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). -- McGrawHill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(B3)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M). -- McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)
Department of Labor,
(Bl)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(81)
4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). -- Department
of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). -- National
Association of Purchasing Management
(84)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3 ( B8)
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(84, B8)
Continued on reverse
115
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (M). •• Purchasing Management Association of
Chicago
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and
life insurance companies (M). -- Institute of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing
and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S.
Savings and Loan League; and Board of Governors of trie
Federal Reseive System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census.
(B6)
37* Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). - National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B4)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). - American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(BS)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commence, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
42. Total number cf persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, B8)
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). - Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
.(Bl, B8)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). - Department of Labor, Manpower Administration
(Bl)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). -- National
Industrial Conference Board
(Bl)
*47n Index of Industrial production (M). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)
48. Man-hours in mmagricultural establishments (M). - Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, E5)
49.Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM). --Department of
Labor, Manpowe* Administration;seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
(Bl)
*52. Personal income (M). « Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, B8, E5)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). » Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
"54. Sales of retail stores (M). • Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5)
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).-- Department of Labor, (Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5t E5)
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M). •>- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8)
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). -• Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(85, 04, E3, E4)
*61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).»
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(B3, B8, Cl, C2)
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing -•
ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to Index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board .off Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value all
manufacturing industries (EOM). --- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4J
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). -• Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6 t B8)
116
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of grcss product 0958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations -- ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M), -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
"71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(66, B8)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (83)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -National Industrial Conference Board
(B3)
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(86)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial bo rowers in credit
markets (Q). -• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(BS)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
*113.Net change in consumer installment debt (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6 t B8)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department
(B6)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bo ids (M). -- First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department(B6)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average ((ft). -- The Bond
Buyer
(B6)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department
of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Adminis(ration
(B6)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). Stie in section A.
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators - reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
811. Twelve leading indicators -- composite index prior to reverse
trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19,
23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
813. Marginal employment adjustments - leading composite index
(includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M). - Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
814. Capital investment commitments -- leading composite index
(includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing - leading composite
index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37) (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
816. Profitability - leading composite index (includes series 16,
17t and 19) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B7)
817. Sensitive financial flows - leading composite index (includes
series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7, E5)
830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(67)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q). -- Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). - Depart"
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Off ice
of Business Economics
(Cl)
416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective
operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying
existing capacity as excessive (tOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) In
income of households (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Cl)
430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). -- University of Michigan,
Survey Research Center
(Cl)
0440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreel, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced with°
out written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from.the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). • - Dim and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may riot be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). - - Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may m{ be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reprodyced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0464, Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). -- Dun and Elriulstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. Ttiis series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0480. Freight carloadings (Q). • Association of American Railroads
(C2)
480. Change in freight carloadings (Q). - Association of American
railroads
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). See in
section B.
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in
section A.
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in section
253. Imports of goods and services: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).--See in section A.
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q), -• See in section A.
500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (MK-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(01)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau Qf the Census
(01)
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 116)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M).-McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
512. General imports, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Dl)
520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in
U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to
all foreigners) (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change
in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and
certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official
agencies) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
525. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers •- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on liquidity
balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
527. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
'02)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). •• Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to
number of persons unemployed (M). -- Department of Labor,
Manpower Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics; ana
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D3)
601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
accounts (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(03)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts
(Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). •- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(EZ)
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
(D3)
616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
military assistance (M). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(03)
625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(03)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of 01, 05, 06, Dll, 019, 023, D41, D47, 054, D58, 061,
and section C for 0440, 0442, D444, 0446, D450, D460, D462, 0464,
0466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
034. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)
647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(03)
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S. ;
balance of payments (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(D2)
648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(03)
750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of •
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)
541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department,
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (02)
752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
781. Index of consumer prices (M). •- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
(D4, E5, Fl)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) -- Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (IVI). -- Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
782. Index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). -- Institut National
de la Statist!que et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F2)
784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). - Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
E Analytical Measures
47. Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See in section B.
52. Personal income (M). See in section B.
54. Sales of retail stores (M). See in section B.
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). See in
section B.
200. GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap --the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series 205) (Q). -- Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
781. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).
See in section D.
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGfaw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (EOM). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(E2)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -- Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt(Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- Insitut National de la
Statist!que et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(Fl)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). -- Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (fl/1). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (NT). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistics (Rome)
(F3)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo)
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D.
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DICTIONARY OF
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It is designed to serve both as a convenient
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with the concepts and terms used in the
publications of these agencies, and as an
introductory manual for those with a limited
background in economic statistics. Special
effort has been made to avoid technical
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