Full text of Business Conditions Digest : January 1968
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bed DEVELOPMENTS January 1968 DATA THROUGH DECEMBER .S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF THE CENSUS This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis Division under the direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication areFeli ks Tamm—Technical supervision and review, Barry A. Beckman^Specifications for computer processing, Qerald F. Donahoe—New projects, IVIorton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods, Betty F* Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data. Editorial supervision is provided by GeraTdine Censky of the Administrative and Publications Services Division. Stuart I. Freeman is responsible for publication design. The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources on the back cover of this report. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Alexander B. Trowbridge, Secretary William H. Shaw, Asst. Secy., Economic Affairs BUREAU OF THE CENSUS A. Ross Eckler, Director Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician Subscription price is $7 a year ($1.75 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are 60 cents. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label' ft/lake checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents, Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office. ABOUT THE COVER—Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business activity. The center panel illustrates this concept. The vertical bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period; the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has begun and rise after it ends. Series are also classified by economic process within each timing group. Processes are indicated in the squares bordering the panel, bed BU'SINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS OF COMMERCE PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list of indicators and their classification into "leading," "roughly coincident," and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years. The business cycle turning dates are also those designated by NBER. In addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total of machinery and equipment sales, and business construction) have been constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis. The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any approach to business cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business conditions. The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted. About 115 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. (This figure includes 19 foreign series in addition to 96 U.S. series.) Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source agency. A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this report. January 196S DATA THROUGH DECEMBER DEVELOPMENTS CONTENTS Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Background Materials New Features and Changes for This Issue 3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations iii iv v vi Descriptions and Procedures Introduction Timing Classification Economic Process Classification "Short List" of Indicators Method of Presentation Concepts and Procedures References , How to Read Charts 1 and 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 Section One—Basic Data Table Chart Chart Table Table 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months 1A. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present IB. Series for International Comparisons From 1948 to Present 2A. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series 2B. Latest Data for International Comparisons 6' 9 30 33 46 Section Two—Analytical Measures Chart 2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present Table 3. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes Table 4. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components 51 54 58 For Index—Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue. CONTENTS Continued Appendixes Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle Series Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series 65 66 68 73 74 75 Index Series Finding Guide 79 11 Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing (Minor economic processes and the number of series in each process are shown for each classification. See the index and back cover for series titles) ^\ Cyclical \, Timing Economic ^\^^ Process \. 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (14 series) LEADING INDICATORS (38 series) Marginal employment adjustments (5 series) ' ^ III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (14 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) New investment commitments ($ series) IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) Inventory investment and purchasing (7 series) VI. MONEY AND CREDIT (17 series) LAGGING INDICATORS (11 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series), Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Long-duration unemployment (1 series) OTHER SELECTED U.S. SEMES (16 series) Comprehensive production (3 series) Comprehensive income (2 series) Comprehensive consumption and trade (3 series) II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE (8 series) V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (11 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS (25 series) Backlog of investment commitments (2 series) Investment expenditures (2 series) Inventories (2 series) Sensitive commodity prices (1 series) Stock prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (4 series) Comprehensive wholesale prices Unit labor costs (2 series) (2 series) Flows of money and credit (6 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Money market interest rates (4 series) Comprehensive retail prices (1 series) Outstanding debt (2 series) Interest rates on business loans and mortgages (2 series) VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS (6 series) Foreign trade and payments (6 series) VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES (9 series) Federal Government activities (9 series) 111 BACKGROUND MATERIALS A revised list of indicators was introduced in the April issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Research work for the revised list was carried out by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which has been preparing lists of economic indicators and research reports in the field of business cycle analysis for more than 40 years. This revised list was published by the National Bureau in March 1967, and is the result of a periodic review made by that agency of its previous list of indicators of aggregate economic activity. This is the third revision of the list originally published by the National Bureau in 1938. The method of preparing the new list, the reasons for adding certain series and dropping others, and an explanation of the classification system used are described in a new report, INDICATORS OF BUSINESS EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 261 Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10016. Other reports on the historical studies and methods of making current interpretations of the indicators are listed in this book. The revised list includes some new series, discontinues some of those on the previous list, and has assigned timing classifications to some series previously unclassified by timing. The chief features of the new list follow: 1. The major principle of classification is a fourfold grouping by cyclical timing: Leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators, and other selected series. The first three categories take into account timing at both peaks and troughs; the fourth group includes economic activities that have an important role in business cycles but have displayed a less regular relation to them. The new list of indicators includes 36 leading series, 25 roughly coincident series, 11 lagging series, and 16 series unclassified by timing—88 series in all; 69 are monthly and 19 are quarterly. This list includes 13 series not on the previous NBER list and omits 5 series. In addition, 14 series previously unclassified by timing are assigned a timing classification. 2. The type of economic process represented by the series is used as a secondary principle of classification, with emphasis on the processes that are important for business cycle analysis. The 88 U.S. series are classified into eight major groups: (I) Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II) Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8 series; (III) Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series; (IV) Inventories and Inventory Investment, 9 series; (V) Prices, Costs, and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and Payments, 6 series; and (VIII) Federal Government Activities, 9 series. Each of these major categories is subdivided into economic processes that exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. For example, under Fixed Capital Investment, new investment commitments are distinguished from investment expenditures. 3. A short list of 25 indicators, drawn from the full list, is identified throughout BCD. This more selective list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging series; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. The short list involves little of the duplica- tion in economic coverage that is provided, for various reasons, in the full list. The series on the short list are identified by asterisks. 4. Two other groups of series are shown in BCD in addition to the 88 NBER indicators. They are "U.S. Series Under Consideration" (eight series not yet classified by cyclical timing and economic process but under consideration for the list of indicators) and "International Comparisons" (19\series showing industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States). Changes in the 1966 list of indicators are as follows (series identification number and title): 13 series new to the 1966 list: 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods *71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks 101. National defense purchases 301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled *502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 511. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments *816. Manufacturing and trade sales 861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicle and parts 862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery 5 series on the previous list but omitted from the 1966 list: 4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries 15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over *51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York *64. Manufacturers' inventories, book value 111. Corporate gross savings 10 series specially constructed for business cycle studies at the suggestion of the NBER: *10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing 22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies *38. Index of net business formation 53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 511. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments *Denotes series included on "short list." IV • A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect new findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series and to report recent changes made by producing agencies in concept, composition, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement of series in relation to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc. There are no changes as described above in this issue. Appendix F includes historical data for series 32, 67, 93, 115, 117, and 118. The February issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is scheduled for release on February 28. 3 CENSUS PROJECTS on economic fluctuations CENSUS METHOD II ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. A time series computer program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place within a year. The latest variant, X-ll, has greater generality and scope than any of the earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census Bureau at cost. BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A monthly report for analyzing economic fluctuations over a shorf span of years. This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and prospects. These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half a century of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this purpose. The publication provides not only the basic data, but also various charts and analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time series punchcard file and a diffusion index program are available for those who wish to carry on further research in business cycle analysis. LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH An annual report for the study of economic fluctuations over a long span of years. This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned, prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A punchcard file of the time series included in the report is available for purchase. vi DESCRIPTIONS AND INTRODUCTION The business cycle is generally described as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been characteristic of American economic history, many economists do-not consider it inevitable. The causal relations among various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions have eventually turned into recessions and recessions into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures which relate to future rather than current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods, formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations in various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts. TIMING CLASSIFICATION On the basis of many years of research, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has compiled a list of indicators of aggregate economic activity and has classified these indicators according to whether they usually lead, roughly coincide with, or lag behind the cyclical movements in aggregate activity. The 1966 list, as issued by the NBER, is the basis for the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Prior to April 1967, their 1960 list was used. The series have been grouped and classified by the NBER as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lag- ging" indicators. These indicators are described as follows: Leading Indicators.—Series that usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these series pertains to orders and contracts, another to inventory investment, and so on. Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series that are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production, and retail sales. Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity. Also included in BCD are (a) "Other Selected U.S. Series," economic activities which are important in analyzing business cycles but have a less consistent relation to them; (b) "U.S. Series Under Consideration," indicators that measure important economic relationships but have not been classified by economic process and timing and, therefore, not yet incorporated into the list of 88 indicators; and (c) indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States. The business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high (peak) or low (trough) levels. As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred. (See appendix A for peak and trough dates.) ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION A secondary principle of classification, economic process, supplements the timing classification. All series are cross-classified according to these two principles. The major economic process categories are employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories' and inventory investment; prices, costs, and profits; money and credit; foreign trade and payments; and Federal Government activity. "SHORT LIST" OF INDICATORS A short, substantially unduplicated list of principal indicators provides a convenient way of summarizing the current situation and outlook. The NBER has identified, for this purpose, a short list of 25. This list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging indicators; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. These series are identified throughout BCD. METHOD OF PRESENTATION This report consists of two major sections as follows: Basic Data (chart 1, tables 1 and 2).—Data for all series are shown for the current and prior periods in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad view of past and current business cycle fluctuations is provided. Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 and 4).— Measures are presented which help to determine the magnitude and scope of, current changes in different processes, industries, and areas, and aid in evaluating the prospects of a turning point in the business cycle. A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on the back cover of this report. The series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES Several other concepts and procedures used in this report are summarized below: Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally adjusted data used for a series are the official figures released by the source agency. In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. The seasonal adjustment process usually accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment is needed for holidays with variable dates. Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of the variation about these moving averages, monthly data are also plotted. Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures which express what percentage of the components of an aggregate series has risen over given time spans. Their turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate. Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion indexes. Many of the component series used to make up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 4. During the current expansion, high values for the indicators are identified in table 2. These values are not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the highest values reached to date. Certain appendix materials are presented regularly in this report. These materials include historical data, adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other information helpful in interpreting trends in the indicators. REFERENCES Fuller explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate economic activity in analyzing current business conditions and prospects may be found in the following references: (1) Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes and First Differences," The Economic Journal, June 1958, pp. 288-301. (2) Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes," American Statistician vol. IX, No. 2 (June 1955), pp. 7-16. (3) Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C. Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1946. (4) Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, August 1966, pt. V, pp. 64-75. (5) Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National Bureau," The Review of Economics and Statistics vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August 1962), pp. 284291. (6) Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators," How Business Economists Forecast (William F. Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt. I, ch. 2, pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: PrenticeHall, 1966. (7) Moore, Geoffrey H., Editor, Business Cycle Indicators. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1961. (8) Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Occasional Paper 103. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1967. (9) Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of the National Bureau's Leading Indicators," Business Cycle Indicators vol. I, ch. 4, pp. 110-119. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1961. (10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical Turning Point Predictors," Journal of Business, April 1960, pp. 101-120. (11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators: The Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at the 34th session of the International Statistical Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August 24, 1963. Washington: Bureau of the Census, 1963. (12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 77. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1961. HOW TO READ CHARTS 1 AND 2 Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated by NBER. CHART 1 - Series Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("3"= March) Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Series are arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by timing and economic process. R o m a n number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ["II" = second quarter) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages/) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. B r o k e n line i n d i c a t e s a c t u a l monthly data for series where an MCD moving average* is plotted. Parallel lines indicate a break in continuity (data not available, changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.). 40 Solid line with plotting points indi cates quarterly data. Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Solid line with plotting points indi cates quarterly data over various spans. * Many of the more irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages as well as their actual monthly data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or 2Vz months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual ' series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. The scales should be carefully noted because they show whether or not the plotted lines for various series are directly comparable. t CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes Scale shows percent of components rising. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("2" = February) Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("IV"fourth quarter) Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various intervals. This line is also used to indicate anticipated quarterly data. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to some readers. Section ONE DATA charts and tables LEADING INDICATORS Employment and unemployment Fixed capital investment Inventories and inventory investment Prices, cosfs, and profits Money and credit ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Employment and unemployment Producfion, income, consumption, and frade Fixed capital investment Prices, cosfs, and profits Money and credit LAGGING INDICATORS Employment and unemployment Fixed capital investment Inventories and inventory investment Prices, costs, and profits Money and credit OTHER US. SERIES Prices, cosfs, and profits Foreign trade and payments Federal Government activities Also U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION (unclassified series) and INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS (indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for selected foreign countries) Table 1 BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 bed CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS Average percent change 2 Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Unit of measure Sept. 1967 Oct. 1967 Nov. 1967 3 Dec. '66 Dec. '66 1953 to to date to date 1965 (with 4 (without (without 5 sign) sign) sign)5 6 Dec. 1967 Current percent change 3 Sept. to Oct. 1967 Oct. to Nov. 1967 Nov. to Dec. 1967 LEADING INDICATORS 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Marginal Employment Adjustments: 4-0.8 Hours r40.7 r40.7 *1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg 482 Thousands *30. Nonagri. placements, all industries 471 474 r4.7 Per 100 employ. . 2. Accession rate manufacturing 4.3 P4.4 5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State 200 unemployment insurance (inverted ). Thousands 203 194 pi. 2 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 3) . Per 100 employ. . 1.3 1,3 III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Formation of Business Enterprises: 110.2 1957-59=100... 112.9 *38. Index of net business formation 110.3 17,908 18,621 Number 13. New business incorporations 18,409 New Investment Commitments: *6. New orders, durable goods industries. .. Bil. dollars r23.38 23.42 r23.84 1957-59=100... 94. Construction contracts, value 168 171 168 r5.81 r5.96 *10. Contracts and orders, plant and7 equip. . .Bil. dollars 5.74 do (HA) 11. New capital appropriations, mfg. do r4.6l 4*.66 24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus .... r4.87 Mil. sq. ft. 9. Construction contracts, commercial 65.50 floor space . . . 62.01 and industrial buildings 55.11 rl,478 Ann. rate, thous. 7 Private nonfarm housing starts rl,564 1,415 1957-59=100 .. *29. New bldg. permits, private housing rl02.2 102.3 106,9 IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Inventory Investment and Purchasing: 21. Change in business inventories, all p+9.0 Ann. rate, bii.dol. industries7 8 *31. Change in book value, manufacturing 8 r+6,2 do -0.7 and trade inventories p+12.3 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting Percent higher inventories 48 47 45 20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven8 Ann. rate, bii.dol. tories of materials and supplies -1.0 r-0.1 p+0.3 26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer C5) Percent . . 61 62 63 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries u) . do . 50 51 44 25. Change in unfilled8 orders, durable Bil. dollars .. . goods industries r+1.07 +0,47 r+0.19 V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Sensitive Commodity Prices: *23. Industrial materials prices ® 1957-59=100... 97.7 97.8 99.1 Stock Prices: 95.81 92.66 *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks ® . . .1941-43=10... 9,5.66 Profits and Profit Margins: (M) *16. Corporate profits after taxes 7 Ann. rate, bii.dol. 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, 7 Percent corporate, all industries (NA) Cents 18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.7 (MA) 1957-59=100.. *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg r99.2 99^4 r99.4 VI. MONEY AND CREDIT Flows of Money and Credit: 98. Change in8money supply and time Ann.rate,percent deposits +6.12 r+10.08 r+8.64 do 85. Change in total U.S. money suoply8. . . . r+6.00 +0.72 r+7.32 8 33 Change in mortgage debt Ann. rate, bii.dol. r+20.62 r+20.20 p+21,70 8 do *113. Change in consumer installment debt . . +5.02 +3.73 +3.41 8 do 112. Change in business loans . r+5.36 r+1.90 -2.34 7 (NA) 110. Total private borrowing Ann. rate, mil.dol Credit Difficulties: 14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 3) Mil. dollars ... 98.00 93.10 77.24 39. Delinquency rate, installment3 loans, Percent 30 days and over (inverted ) 1.69 P40.8 p474 (MA) 0.0 -0.8 -0.2 0.4 3.0 4/5 0.5 1.8 4.6 -0.2 +0.6 +9.3 0.0 +1.7 -6.4 197 (NA) 0.0 -0.3 8.1 10.7 5.0 9.2 -1.5 0.0 +4*4 +7.7 -1.5 (NA) (NA) (HA) +1.0 +1.2 1.1 4.2 0.8 2.5 +0.1 -2.7 +2.4 +4.0 (NA) (NA) 2.9 6,2 3.5 2.8 3.8 3.8 6.6 4.7 9.7 4.2 -0.2 +1.8 +3.8 -1.1 +2.0 -1.8 -2.5 (HA) +5.6 +9.5 -1.2 +4.0 P5.13 +0.8 +2.1 +0.9 +0.5 +1.0 65.37 pi, 241 p!20.2 +1.5 +3.1 +5.3 11.2 8.0 7.1 9.3 -11.1 7.3 +4.5 3.7 +4.5 +18.9 +5.8 -4.4 -0.2 -20.7 +17.6 -2.4 6.6 2.3 (NA) -0.7 5.8 3.7 +6.9 +6.1 (HA) 55 +0.4 8.5 6.5 +4.4 +2.1 +14.6 (NA) -0.1 1.4 1.5 +0.9 +0.4 (HA) 64 -0.6 4.0 5.3 +1.6 +1.6 +1.6 48 -0,8 8.3 7,5 +13.6 +2.0 -5.9 p+0.93 +0.06 0.72 0.48 +0.60 -0.88 +0.74 100.1 -0.5 1.1 1.3 -0.1 +1.4 +1.0 95.30 +1.3 2.1 2.5 -0.2 -3.1 +2.8 -1.5 2,3 5.6 (NA) -2.4 -3.4 -0.2 2.4 3.4 0.5 4.2 5.7 0.6 (HA) (HA) 0.0 pf-5.28 p+2.04 (HA) (HA) p+7.62 -0.02 -0.01 +1,27 +0.11 +0.66 +5.7 3.70 5.63 3.00 0.77 7.68 10.1 2.49 2. 88 1.31 0,87 2,22 11.0 234.92 -11.8 32.2' 18,7 -5.3 +0.5 4.9 2.6 -2.4 p26.11 166 p6.04 plOO.8 (HA) 1 +0.2 -1.7 (HA) +5.3 +5.2 +0.2 +1.4 +3-96 -1.44 +6.60 -1.32 -0.42 +1.50 +0,32 +1,29 +7,70 -3.46 (HA) -3.36 -3.96 (HA) (HA) +5.72 +21.2 -204.1 (HA) Table 1 bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Unit of measure Sept. 1967 Oct. 1967 Average percent change2 3 Nov. 1967 Dec. 1967 Dec. '66 Dec. '66 1953 to to date to date 1965 (with (without (without 4 5 sign)5 6 sign) sign) Current percent change3 Sept. to Oct. 1967 Oct. Nov. 1967 Nov. to Dec. 1967 to ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Job Vacancies: 301 Nonagri job openings unfilled 46. Help-wanted advertising Comprehensive Employment: 511. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments... *41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . . 42. Total nonagricultural employment Comprehensive Unemployment: *43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted ). . . 45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State (inverted3 ) 40. Unemployment rate, married males (inv?) Thousands 1957-59 = 100.. Ann. rate, bil. man-hours ... Thousands do Percent do.. .. do 378 185 368 186 P347 (MA) -1.2 -0.2 3.2 2.2 3.1 3.0 -2.6 +0.5 -3.5 +0.5 -2.3 (NA) r!34.68 r!34.48 r!36.37 P136.07 66,055 r66,243 r66,929 p67,128 71,417 70,923 71,254 70,949 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.1 +0.3 0.0 +1.4 +1.0 +0.5 -0.2 +0.3 +0.2 355 pl87 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.7 -0.1 3.8 3.9 -4.9 +9.3 +5.1 2.4 1.8 2.3 1.9 2.3 1.7 2.2 1.7 +0.2 -0.3 4.3 6.4 4.2 5.1 +4.2 -5.6 0.0 +10.5 +4.3 0.0 pl6l.6 +1.5 +0.7 +0.1 1.5 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.3 1.0 -0.1 +2.1 +1.1 +1.7 +1.4 p648.1 pl69.7 +0.6 +0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 +0.2 -0.2 +1.0 +1.9 +0.9 +0.8 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.0 -0.9 -2.4 +3.2 +1.4 +1.4 (NA) p26,343 +0.3 +1.8 +0.3 II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE Comprehensive Production: 49. GNP in current dollars 7 *50. GNP in 1958 dollars 7 *47. Industrial production Ann. rate, bil. dot do 1957-59-100.. 156>!8 r!56.6 p807.6 p679.4 r!59.3 Comprehensive Income: *52. Personal income 53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . Ann.rate,bil.dol. do 634.4 165.5 r635.9 165.2 r642.4 rl68.4 Mil. dollars... Ann. rate, bil.dol. Mil. dollars... 88,785 Bii. dollars... do 77.27 p20.68 r78.34 r78.53 p79.46 (NA) +0.3 -0.1 0.9 1.2 1.4 5.6 +1.4 +0.2 +1.2 (NA) 1957-59-100.. do 106.5 107.1 106.8 107.1 107.1 107.2 107.4 107.6 +0.1 +0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 +0.3 0.0 +0.3 +0.1 +0.3 +0.4 Bank Reserves: 93. Free reserves 8 (inverted 3 )© Mil. dollars... +268 +160 r+270 IH-103 -22 88 98 +108 -110 +167 Money Market Interest Rates: 114. Treasury bill rate® 116. Corporate bond yields ® 115 Treasury bond yields® 117. Municipal bond yields @ Percent do ..... do do 4.45 6.33 4.99 4.12 4.59 6.53 5.19 4.30 4.76 6.87 5.44 4.34 5.01 6.93 5.36 4.43 +0.3 +1.3 +1.2 +1.2 6.3 3.1 2.4 2.8 6.7 1.6 1.6 2.5 +3.1 +3.2 +4.0 +4.4' +3.7 +5.2 +4.8 +0.9 +5.3 +0.9 -1.5 +2.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.3 3.1 6.5 0,0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 1.2 3.2 Comprehensive Consumption and Trade: *816. Manufacturing and trade sales 57. Final sales7 *54. Sales of r etail stores 26,732 p90,777 P798.7 r 26, 089 r26,467 r 87, 996 (NA) -0.5 III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Backlog of Investment Commitments: 96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus. . . 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.9 V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Comprehensive Wholesale Prices: 55. Wholesale prices, indus. commod.®. . . 58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods® VI. MONEY AND CREDIT LAGGING INDICATORS 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Long-Duration Unemployment: *502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (inverted 3 ) III. Percent FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Investment Expenditures: *61. Bus. expenditures, newplantand equip.7 Ann.rate, bil.dol. 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures . . do a62.05 +1.9 70.52 r68.95 p70.75 (NA) +0.3 1.8 1.6 -2.2 +2.6 (NA) 138.13 r!38.64 p!39.67 (NA) +0.3 0.3 0.5 +0.4 +0.7 (NA) 27.29 r27.27 p27.48 (NA) +0.5 0.7 0.6 -0.1 +0.8 (NA) IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Inventories: *71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . 65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of finished goods Bil. dollars... do Table 1 BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 bed CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued Average percent change 2 Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Unit of measure Sept. 1967 Oct. 1967 Nov. 1967 Dec. '66 to date (with sign)4 Dec. 1967 3 Dec. '66 1953 to to date 1965 (without5 (without sign)5 6 sign) Current percent change3 Sept. to Oct. 1967 Oct. to Nov. 1967 Nov. to Dec. 1967 LAGGING INDICATORS-Continued V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Unit Labor Costs: 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product (1958 dol.), nonfin. corp.7, . . . Dollars *62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg 1957-59=100 ... VI. MONEY AND CREDIT Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment debt Mil. dollars .... *72. Commercial and industrial loans do outstanding Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages: *67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans7®. Percent 118. Mortgage yields, residential ® do . . . rlOS.O 107.7 rl07.8 pl06.7 -hi. 4 +0,3 1..4 0.6 0.8 0.5 -6! 3 (HA) +0.1 -1.0 75,77? 76,083 76,506 (MA) +0.4 0.4 '0.8 +0.4 +0,5 (NA) 63,309 r63,592 63,797 p64,7l8 +0,7 1.2 1.0 +0.4 +0,3 +1.4 6^63 6^65 5.96 6.77 6.81 -1.4 +0.1 1.5 1.3 2.0 0.1 +<X3 +0.2 +1.8 +0.6 117.1 117.5 117.8 118,2 +0.2 0,2 0.2 +0,3 +0.3 +0.3 (MA) Mil. dollars .... (MA) do do 14-434.2 r+190.8 IN- 316, 5 +79.1 do r2,642.7 r 2, 392. 3 r2,692,2 2,603.9 do r796 (»A) 905 p864 (MA) 272 1957-59=100... P239 221 Mil. dollars .... r2,208.5 r2,201,5 2,375.7 2,524.8 -72 +163 -8.8+0.8 -1.8 +1.4 +1.1 72 1,361 89,4 4,2 12.6 10,1 3,0 -3.3 -4.3 +0.3 +3.1 4.3 6,3 1,1 4.0 (NA) OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Comprehensive Retail Prices: 81. Consumer prices® VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS 89. U.S. balance of payments:7 * a. Liquidity balance basis b. Official settlements basis 88. Merchandise trade balance ^ 86. Exports, excluding military aid 861. Export orders, durables exc. mot. veh.® 862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery . 87. General imports VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES 95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit (-), nat'l. income and prod, acct.7 8 84. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit7 (-)7 8 83. Federal cash receipts from public .... 82. Federal cash payments to public7 101. National 7defense purchases, current dollars 91. Defense Dept. obligations, total 90. Defense Dept oblig procurement 99. New orders, defense products industries 92 Military contract awards in U S 1957-59 = 100... (HA) -16.0 155.2 . 173.2 Ann. rate, bil. dpi. do do do... do Mil. dollars... . do Bil. dollars... . Mil. dollars... . (NA) 341 (HA) 492 58,4 -243.4 +125. -7 -237.4 3.8 -9.5 +12.5 -3.3 (MA) +8,5 12.4 -12.0 (MA) 6.3 +23.1 -12.1 3.0 +7.9 +6.3 -0.3 - (MA) +1.5 +0.8 -0.2 2.5 4,2 3.1 3,6 7,814 3,221 3.71 3,665 7,620 2,905 r4.09 3,665, P74.3 6,397 1,947 - r3.14 p'3,329 (HA) (HA) p3.66 (HA) +3*2 +1.8 .4-4.8 +2.1 +0.6 3.2 12.5 26.5 14.9 10.0 Percent. Ratio l.*56 "l.*5S p84.3 pl*54 (MA) -1,6 0,0 1.7 1.0 2.2 1.0 +1.3 +0.2. -2.5 (MA) do 3.78 3.88 r3.68 P3.52 -0.2 2,5 2.0 +2.6 -5.2 -4.3 r 122.3 r!19.7 r 122.0 pl20.0 -0.4 1.0 1.0 -2.1 +1.9 -1.6 +3.5 7.6 8.5 -1.2 +0,1 -2... 4 4,0 0,2 2,4 5.8 0.4 3.6 +1.4 2,3 (MA) 13.9 -2.5 -16.0 -33.0 -9.8 (NA) 27,4 22,5 +10.2 -23.2 +16.6 (MA) 18,1 0.0 -9-2 U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION 850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg.7 851. Ratio, inventories to safes, mfg., trade. 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income7 855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled 856. Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices 857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing7 .. 1957-59 = 100... Ratio do 1957-59=100... Percent pO.075 0.119 115.5 0,109 115.3. 0.117 rl!5.3 (MA) pO.120 p!15,6 +7.1 -8.4 -0,2 +7.3 0,0 (NA) +2.6 +0.3 *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. ©Not seasonally adjusted. NA =not available; r =revised; p= preliminary; e =estimated; a=anticipated. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by @, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in 2 3 table 2. Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes for the specified periods. To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502). Percent changes are computed in the usual way but the signs are reversed. See footnote 8 for other "change" qualifications. Average commuted with regard to sign. Average computed without regard to sign. 8 671ie period varies among the series; however, for most series, the period covered is 1953-65. Quarterly series; figures are placed in the middle month of quarter. Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percentages.9Figures are placed in the last month of quarter. 8 Chart 1A bed JANUARY BASIC DATA 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT Leading Indicators I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk { * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 33. 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A BASIC DATA 0 JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Leading Indicators-Continued IE. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.; P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T a. Index of 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 formation (1957-59=100) 60 61 62 63 64 65 See 'Kow to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page'4. Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 33 and 34. 10 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Leading Indicators -Continued Iff. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT- Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P P (May) (Feb.; (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) T T P T farm housing starts (ann. rate, 0 permits, private nits (index: 1957-59-100) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4, Asterisk [ * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 34. 11 Chart 1A BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1943 to PRESENT-Continued Leading Indicators-Continued BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (Nov.) (Oct.] P (July) (Aug.) T P (July) (Apr.) T P (May) (Feb.) T P T fg. and trade inventories percent of cWanies reporting higher inventories entories of materials and mtls., ' ' percent" of, companies ' 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk { * ) Identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 35. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 65 66 67 1968 bed Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Leading Indicators-Continued BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Continued (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 3C. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (') identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 35 and 36. 13 Chart 1A BASIC DATA bed JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Leading Indicators-Continued . PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P (July) (Aug.) T P (July) (Apr.) P T T (May) (Feb. P T *16. Corporate profits Q (ann. rate, Ml dol *17. Ratio, price to unit labor 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( ' j identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 36. Digitized for 14 FRASER 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Leading Indicators-Continued SI. MONEY AND CREDIT (Nov.) (Oct.) P (July) T P (July) (Apr.) (Aug.) P T (May) (Feb.) T P T MCD moving avg.-6-term] hange in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.) *113. Change In consumer debt |ann. rate, bil. dol.) . rate, bil. 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 moving avg.-5-term) 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 37. 15 Chart 1A BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Leading Indicators-Continued 21. MONEY AND CREDIT -Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) (July) (Aug.) P T P (July) (Apr.) T P bed (May) (Feb.) T P T 100-i 806040- 20J 6080- 100120140160-J 180 1.0-! ana over, total (percent-inverted scale) 1.5- 2.0- 2.5- 3.0J 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 37. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 60 61 62 63 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed JANUARY BASIC DATA 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Roughly Coincident Indicators I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (Nov.) (Oct.) P (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) T P T (May) (Feb. P T *41. Employees in nonagri. establishments (millions) « 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 1 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list . Current data for these series are shown on page 38. 17 Chart 1A BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued bed Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued P P T (May) (Feb.) (July) (Apr.) P T Italy) (Aug.) (Nov.) (Oct.) T P T yment rate, total (percent-inverted scale) E. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk [ * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Cunent data for these series are shown on pages 38 and 39. Digitized for18 FRASER 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed JANUARY BASIC DATA 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued H. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P (July) (Aug.) T P (July) (Apr.) T P (May) (Feb.) T P T *816. Mfg. and trade sales (bil. do I.) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 + See 'How to Read Charts I and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 39. 19 Chart 1A BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued [Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 40. 20 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued [.MONEY AND CREDIT (Nov.) (Oct.) P (July) (Aug.) P T T (July) (Apr.) P (May) (Feb.) P T T -I.O-i -0.5- 0+0.5J 5- 4- 3- 6- 5- 46- 5- 4- 3J 5-1 icipal bond yields (percent) 4- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4- Current data for these series are shown on page. 40. 21 Chart 1A BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Lagging Indicators bed I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT *502. (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T P T ercent-inverted scale) persons Iff. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT *81. Bus, plant 0 (anil, rate, ML *l. in sales and bus constr T3L. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT rade inventories (bil. dol. 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk ( ' ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 41. Digitized for 22FRASER 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed JANUARY BASIC DATA 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Lagging Indicators-Continued . PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (Nov.) (Oct.) P (July) (Aug.) T P (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T T curr. dol.) per dol. of per unit of output, g. {Mix: 1957-59-100) 3ZL MONEY AND CREDIT stallment debt (bil. dol. . £0ftt, and reporting jans outstanding, weekly com. banks (bil. dol. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent) Ids, residential (percent) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk {*} identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 42. 23 Chart 1A BASIC DATA JANUARY bed 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series 3C. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (May).(Feb.) P T (index: 1957-59=100) SH. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS 89. U.S. of payments, 0 (bil b. Official settlements basis 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 43. 24 67 1968 Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued 5DDL FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) Duly) (Aug.) (July) (Apr.) P T P T P T (May) (Feb.) P T 3.53.02.52.01.5- 1.41.21.00.80,6- -"•] 300- H 250200150- 3.02.5 2.01.5- 1.0- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4 Current data for these series are shown on page 43. 25 Chart 1A BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued bed Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued SHI.FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES (Nov.) (Oct.) P 1948 49 50 (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T T 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 [May) (Feb.) P 59 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44. Digitized for 26FRASER 60 T 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued SOU. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr.) P (May) (Feb.) T P T 80-i 70605040- 309"! Q — 76543- 3- 2- 1- 06-1 5- 432- 1J 6n 54- 2- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44. 27 Chart 1A BASIC DATA BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 JANUARY 1968 65 67 to PRESENT-Continued bed U.S. Series Under Consideration (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4, Current data for these series are shown on page 45. 28 (May) (Feb.; P T (July) (Apr.) P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 66 1968 Chart 1A bed JANUARY BASIC DATA 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued | U.S. Series Under Consideration-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 (July) (Aug.) P T 51 52 53 54 55 (July) (Apr.) P T 56 57 58 (May) (Feb. P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2V page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 45. 29 Chart IB BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 bed SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS FROM 1948 to PRESENT industrial Production Indexes (1957-59-1001 121. OECD European countries 1948 49 50 51 52 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Digitized30 for FRASER 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 Current data for these series are shown on page 45. 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Chart IB bed JANUARY BASIC DATA 1968 SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Consumer Price Indexes (1957-59-100) 1948 49 50 51 52 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Current data for these series are shown on page 47. 31 Chart IB BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 bed SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Stock Price Indexes (1957-59=100) s^-n 19. United States 143. Canada /~~\.s~' 120-1 142. United Kingdom" 120 -I 146. France ~ 71 ^X^^W^ ^vv./v! 120- ' c 80- 145. West Germany ^j\ ± 280240200160120 J 148.Japan / J ^ ^ / I^^—j-*' /A> s y s / ^V-" /^- *~~^\~ n ^^NS/ 280 240200- 160120 80 Ar7^ 7 i: Z N /A\A->\f\*. 147. (Wy 240200- \A^ 160120- 80- 40-J 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 48. 32 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Table 2A bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES Leading Indicators Major Economic Process EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Marginal Employment Adjustments Formation of Business Enterprises Year and month *1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing *30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (Hours) (Thous.) (Per 100 employees) 1966 January February March 41.4 g> 41.6 41.5 570 |> 600 589 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (Thous.) 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing *38. Index of net business formation 13. Number of new business incorporations (Per 100 employees) (1957-59 = 100) (Number) 222 219 182 1.2 1*2 1.1 109.1 109.6 109.6 18,087 17,451 17,266 5 2 179 185 186 1.2 1.1 1.3 107.6 106.8 106.2 17,057 16,644 16,577 4.9 4.9 5.1 April May -. June 41.5 41.4 41.3 522 July August September 41.2 41.4 41.4 542 543 509 4.7 5.1 4.9 230 196 183. 1.7 1.1 1.1 104. S 103.9 102.7 16,074 16,343 15,764 October November December 41.3 41.3 41.0 533 530 524 5.1 4.8 4.6 186 194 212 1.1 1.2 1.3 103.3 100.6 101.4 16,233 16,206 16,583 January February March 41.0 40,3 40,4 534 519 497 4.6 4.3 4.1 203 242 256 1.4 1.5 1.7 102.2 103.2 103.3 16,703 15,987 16,244 April May June 40.5 40.3 40.3 474 448 487 4.2 4.6 4.6 263 234 225 1.5 1.4 1.4 104.0 105.7 109.0 16,760 17,627 17,799 July August . September 40.4 40.7 40.8 484 487 471 4.2 4.3 4.3 265 211 200 it>i.i 1.6 1.3 10S..4 110.3 110.2 16,072 17,338 18,409 October November December r40.7 r40.7 p40.8 474 482 P474 r4.7 P4.4 (NA) 203 194 197 1.3 110.3 pi. 2 (NA) B> %? 17,908 18 513 567 4,9 5.1 B> * fi> 1967 B> a 1968 January February March April May June July August September October November December . . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by 0£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA". not available. -"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. 33 Table 2A BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Leading Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con. Minor Economic Process New Investment Commitments Year and month *6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (Bil.dol.) *10. Contracts 94. Index of and orders for construction contracts, total plant and equipment value (1957-59 = 100) (Bil.dol.) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil.dol.) 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (Bil.dol.) 9. Construction 7. New private contracts, com- nonfarm housing mercial and units started1 industrial buildings (Mil. sq.ft. floor space) (Ann.rate,thous.) *29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local2 building permits (1957-59 = 100) 1966 January February March 23,58 23.74 24,89 152 157 158 5*46 5.71 5.66 6^34 4.45 4.58 4.59 62.29 f£> 70.42 67.99 1,403 1,381 1,400 111.9 106.4 112.1 April May June 24.20 24.28 24.59 161 156 147 5.91 5.77 5.57 g>6]69 4.79 4.84 4.75 68.28 64.00 65.85 1,356 1,232 1,161 105.3 97.4 84.7 July August September 24.37 23.51 25.27 147 139 146 6.10 5.87 f£>6.28 5^97 5.09 4.81 4.91 63.54 63.52 64.40 1,061 1,088 1,020 82.1 75.2 65.3 October November December 24.24 23.03 23.96 139 130 133 5.76 5.52 5.45 5*96 4.82 4.65 4.60 54.76 64.42 60.21 824 956 910 63.4 63.4 67.1 January February March 22.07 22.33 22.06 126 143 149 5.40 5.34 5.50 5.*% 4.54 4.24 4.32 49,09 57.84 56.14 1,079 1,132 1,067 83.1 78.9 81.9 Apri 1 May June 22.23 23.86 24.26 138 154 164 5.37 5.55 5.82 5.*83 4.44 4.61 4.79 59.04 53.16 64.03 1,099 1,254 1,214 90.7 91.1 97.9 July August September 23.72 23.73 23.42 149 165 168 5.72 6.16 5.74 p6!o5 4.85 5.06 4.66 55.29 63.00 62.01 1,356 1,381 1,415 96.4 99.4 102.3 8>171 168 166 r5.96 r5.81 p6.04 (NA) r4.6l r4.87 8>P5-13 55.11 65.50 65.37 rl,478 r 1,564 pi, 241 106.9 r!02.2 p!20.2 1967 October November December r23.38 r23.84 |>p26.11 1968 January February March April May . June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by [JD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by SD> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" not available. value (1,833) was reached in October 1963. High value (124.6) was reached in February 1964. 2 34 Table 2A bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Leading Indicators— Continued Major Economic Process INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Inventory Investment and Purchasing Year and month 1966 January February . . March 26. Production 20. Change in 37. Purchased ma21. Change in *31. Change in materials, perbook value of terials, percent of business invenbook value of cent of compamanufacturers' companies reporttories after valmanufacturing nies reporting inventories of invenand trade inven- ing higher uation adjust1 commitments 60 materials2 and tories tories, total ment, all indusdays or longer© supplies tries (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann.rate,bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) +9.9 +8.1 +11,7 +13.1 49 47 52 +0.9 +1.2 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries© 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Percent reporting) (Bil.dol.) +o.a 68 67 68 B> 86 +1.27 +1.31 +1.65 74 85 r^ April May June +14.0 +12.8 +17.7 +16.9 51 53 54 +3.8 +3.4 +4.0 69 70 72 82 75 69 +1.49 +1.36 +1.70 July August September +11*. 4 +13.6 +15.9 +9.6 58 58 54 +1.1 +5.4 +3.3 73 73 72 70 73 72 +1.34 +0.64 IO+2.3G S> +18*5 +18.6 +17.6 f£> +20.3 58 57 56 +1.4 +2.0 +1.6 B> 75 73 70 70 64 57 +0.79 -0.21 +0.24 +7.1 +12.5 +2.3 +3.8 47 43 46 +2.2 -1.0 -0.3 72 67 68 48 51 38 -0.99 -0.30 -1.07 April May June +0.5 +3.1 +0.9 -4.2 37 39 42 +0,6 -1.1 -1.0 67 66 68 39 36 38 -0.04 +0.96 +1.21 July August September +3^8 +3.9 +9.4 -0.7 40 43 45 -0.8 +2,4 -1.0 61 66 61 41 43 44 +0.52 +0.09 +0,47 p+9.0 r+6,2 p+12,3 (NA) 47 4b 55 r-0.1 p+0.3 (HA) 62 63 64 50 51 48 r+1.07 rfO.19 P+0.93 October November December 1967 January February March October November December 1968 January February March April May June • . . . . Julv August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[tD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. •'•High value (63) was reached in November 1964. High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961. 2 35 Table 2A BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued bed Leading Indicators— Continued Major Economic Process PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Minor Economic Process Sensitive Commodity Prices Stock Prices Profits and Profit Margins *23. Index of industrial materials prices® *19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks® *16. Corporate profits after taxes 22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries 18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, manufacturing (1957-59 = 100) (1941-43 = 10) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent) (Cents) (1957-59=100) Year and month 1966 120,5 122,9 !>123.5 93.32 92.69 April May June 121.5 118,3 118,4 July August September 49*. 2 |£> 13L5 |t>9!8 105.1 105.1 105.1 91.60 86.78 86,06 49^2 13*2 9.* 3 104.4 105,1 104.6 118.8 111.7 108.9 85.84 80.65 77,81 |>49l4 13*,6 9.2 f£> 105.2 104,5 104,2 October November December 106.3 105.9 105,8 77.13 80.99 81,33 49 '.3 12*. 6 9*,0 103.9 103.0 103.1 1967 January February March 106.8 105.2 102.5 84,45 87.36 89.42 46.5 12.0 8^5 101.5 101,0 100,7 100.1 99.6 99.8 90,96 92,59 91.43 46^5 11.9 8.2 100,8 100.3 99,8 July August September 98.3 98.1 97.8 93.01 94.49 |> 95.81 4?!i 11,7 B'.I 100.2 99.8 r99.2 October November December 97.7 99.1 100.1 95.66 92,66 95.30 (NA) (NA) (NA) 1968 January February March *99,6 January February March April May June .. .. 88.88 3 99,4 r99,4 plOO.8 94. 31 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by ED>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by terisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA". not available. an asterisk 1 Average for January 18, 19, and 22. Average for January 19, 22, and 23. 2 36 Table 2A bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Leading Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process MONEY AND CREDIT Minor Economic Process Credit Difficulties Flows of Money and Credit Year and month 98. Change in money supply and time deposits 85. Change in total U.S. money supply 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by fin. inst. and life insurance companies 1 *113. Net change in consumer installment debt 2 112. Change in business loans 110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) 14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency bilities of busi- rate, 30 days ness failures 3 and over, total installment loans4 (Mil. dol.) (Percent) 1966 +6.48 M.56 +9.12 +7.92 +2.88 +6.36 +23.81 +21,85 +22.87 +7.16 +6.46 +7.79 +14.10 +6.24 +8.76 66,924 +12.36 +4. BO +7.80 +9.24 -2.16 +2.88 +20,77 +17.76 +15.22 +6.37 +5.92 +6.59 +8.50 +9.58 +17.70 |C> 77,784 +3.72 +5.16 +3.36 -4.92 +1.44 +2.88 +12.54 +12.68 +11,40 +6.77 +7.22 +5.70 §0+21.11 +3.28 +0.67 56,320 62.84 159.29 128.77 -0.72 -0.72 +5.52 -2.76 0.00 +2.16 +9.96 iM-9.66 r+7.72 +4.56 +5.33 +3.85 +5.93 r+2.63 r-0.24 50,524 128.02 116.90 194.09 +7.68 +14. 16 fO+15.00 -0.72 +8.40 +11.16 +11.05 +12,11 +11.95 +3.36 +2.59 +3.17 +6.01 +0.86 +6.83 57,508 118.61 111.23 108.87 April May June +5.64 +13.08 +14.28 -2.76 |>-fl2.48 +11.64 +11.64 +15.80 +19.34 +2.56 +2.32 +3.50 +9.25 +1.63 +8.16 63,220 110.80 93.00 87.20 July August September +13.44 +12.96 +6.12 +11.52 +8.04 +0.72 +12.95 +22,84 r+20.62 +2.70 +4.13 +3.41 +16.46 -9.44 -2.34 p59»104 October November December r+10.08 rf8.64 p+5.28 r+7.32 r+6.00 1^2.04 r+20.20 p+21.70 (NA) +3.73 +5.02 (NA) iM-5.36 r+1.90 p+7.62 January February March April May June July . August September . . . October November December 111,67 94.59 9S.73 ' 106.93 92.41 111.23 1.73 1.78 1.76 1.76 1.79 1.75 1967 January February March (NA) 64.15 98,29 93.10 98.00 77.24 234.92 l!82 1.90 1.72 l!65 1.69 (NA) 1968 January February March April May June Julv August September . .. October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated b y ® . Current high values are indicated by[3>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by G£> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p". preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. -"-High value (24.02) was reached in October 1963. High value (+8.94) was reached in April 1965. 2 3 High value (52.86) was reached in August 1963. High value (1.57) was reached in May 1963. 4 37 Table 2A BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued bed Roughly Coincident Indicators Major Economic Process EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Minor Economic Process Year and month Comprehensive Unemployment Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies 511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments 301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (Thous.) (1957-59 = 100) (Ann. rate, bil. man-hours) *41.Numberof employees in nonagricultural establishments 42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey *43. Unemployment rate, total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs1 40. Unemployment rate, married males (Thous.) (Thous.) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 1966 January February March 392 403 428 184 191 S£>201 128.70 129.80 130.62 62,503 62,889 63,296 68,266 68,186 68,153 3.9 3.7 3.8 2.6 2.6 2,3 1.9 1.9 1.9 April . . May . June 430 425 421 189 185 184 130.22 130.23 131.54 63,427 63,616 64,069 68,343 68,351 68,749 3.7 3.9 3.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 July. August September 420 426 ft>43* 186 189 189 131.40 132.09 131.86 64,180 64,345 64,394 68,920 69,206 69,309 3.9 3.8 3.7 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 October November December 433 417 406 193 194 193 132.63 133.28 133.32 64,694 65,014 65,251 69,420 70,005 69,882 3.8 |>3-5 3.7 lOa.o 1.9 1.7 1.7 January February March 393 374 364 189 190 184 134.24 133.68 133.77 65,564 65,692 65,749 70,240 70,247 69,892 3.7 3.7 3.6 2.3 2.4 2.6 April May June . 353 350 347 181 174 171 133.13 132.97 133.91 65,653 65,639 65,903 70,020 69,637 70,420 3.7 3.8 4.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 1.9 1.9 2.0 July August September 337 352 378 169 180 185 r!33.68 r!34.87 r!34.6S 65,939 66,190 66,055 70,633 70,726 70,949 3.9 3.8 4.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.8 October November December 368 355 P347 186 pi 87 (HA) r!34.48 |£> rl36.37 p!36.07 * r66,243 r66,929 |>P67,128 70,923 71,254 j>71,417 4.3 3.9 3.7 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.7 ' 2.3 1967 1,7 |>1.6 ^ 1.7 1968 January February March . . April May June 1 July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by [fD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by fc> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA". not available. 1 Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. Digitized for38 FRASER Table 2A bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE Minor Economic Process Year and month 1966 January February March Comprehensive Income Comprehensive Production 49. Gross national product in current dollars *50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars *47. Index of industrial production (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (1957-59 = 100) *52. Personal income 53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) Comprehensive Consumption and Trade *816. Manufacturing and trade sales 57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Mil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) *54. Sales of retail stores (Mil. dol.) 725*. 9 645.* 4 150.7 152.4 153.8 563.7 567.4 572.3 149.4 151.5 153.4 84,727 84,530 86,991 716.0 25,081 25,049 25,536 April May June 736.7 649*3 153.9 155.4 156.5 574.7 576.1 581.1 154.0 155.0 156.8 85,455 85,426 86,957 722.6 24,949 24,475 25,394 July . August September 748.8 654*8 157,2 157.8 158,1 584.7 589.1 594.1 156,9 158.5 159.5 86,678 86,995 86,775 737.4 25,362 25,572 25,703 October November December 762.1 661 !l 159.4 159.1 159.5 597.5 602.1 605.0 160.5 161.3 162.1 87,066 86,699 87,875 743.*6 25,550 25,610 25,368 January . . February March 7663 660 '.7 158.2 156.6 156.4 610.4 612.6 615.6 163.3 162.4 162.7 87,386 86,299 87,458 759.2 25,687 25,470 25,739 April May June 775.1 664.7 156.5 155.6 155.6 616.5 618.2 622.6 162.2 161.5 162.4 86,833 87,611 88,549 774.* 6 25,918 25,897 26,544 July August September 79i. 2 672.0 156.6 158.1 156.8 62^.0 631.6 634.4 163.4 165.2 165,5 88,991 89,295 88,785 787.4 26,444 26,422 §£>26,732 |C>p807*.6 |C>p679]4 r!56.6 r!59.3 §t>pl6l.6 r635.9 r642,4 |>p648.1 165.2 rl68.4 g>pl69.7 r87,996 i>p90,?77 (NA) |>p798[7 r26,089 r 26, 467 p26,343 1967 October November December 1968 January February March ... . April May June . . July .... August . ... September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by [B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by 1D> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; V, preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 39 Table 2A BASIC DATA bed JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Roughly Coincident Indicators— Continued Major Economic Process FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Minor Economic Process Backlog of Investment Commitments Comprehensive Wholesale Prices Year and month 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Bil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) 55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities © 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods © (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100) MONEY AND CREDIT Bank Reserves Money Market Interest Rates 93. Free reserves ® 114. Treasury bill rate© 116. Corporate bond yields ® (Mil. dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 115. Treasury 117. Municipal bond yields© bond yields© (Percent) (Percent) 1966 January February March 63.80 65.11 66.76 April . . . May June 68.25 69.61 71.31 July August September 72.65 73.29 75.59 .... 76. 33 76.17 76.42 October November December 19! 33 103.5 103.8 104.0 104.4 104.9 105.0 -44 -107 -246 4.60 4.67 4.63 4.93 5.09 5.33 4.43 4.61 4.63 3.52 3.64 3.72 20.56 104.3 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.5 105.6 -268 -352 -352 4.61 4.64 4.54 5.38 5.55 5.67 4.55 4.57 4.63 3.56 3.65 3.77 105.2 105.2 105.2 106.0 106.4 106.4 -362 -390 -368 4.86 4.93 5.36 5.81 6.04 6.14 4.75 4.80 4.79 3.95 4.12 4.12 20.72 105.3 105.5 105.5 106.3 106.2 106.2 |t>-431 -222 -165 g>5.39 5.34 5.01 6.04 6.11 5.98 4.70 4.74 4.65 3.94 3.86 3.86 20.40 105.8 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.4 106.3 -16 -4 +236 4.76 4.55 4.29 5.53 5.35 5.55 4.40 4.47 4.45 3.54 3.52 3.55 20.32 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.3 106.6 +175 +269 +297 3.85 3.64 3.48 5.59 5.90 6.06 4.51 4.76 4.86 3.60 3.89 3.96 p20.68 106,0 106.3 106.5 106.8 106.8 107.1 +272 +298 +268 4.31 4.28 4.45 6.06 6.30 6.33 4.86 4.95 4.99 4.02 3.99 4.12 106.8 107.1 g>107,4 107.1 107.2 jt>107.6 +160 r+270 p+103 4,59 4.76 5,01 6.53 6.87 |> 6 -93 5.19 |C>5.44 5.36 4.30 4.34 ff>20.77 1967 January February March 75.43 75.13 74.06 April May June 74.02 74.97 76.18 July August September 76.71 76,80 77.27 October November December r78.34 r78.53 |J>p79.46 (NA) |> 4-43 1968 January February March April May June July August September October November December ; NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by[j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by E> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA r not available. 40 Table 2A bed JANUARY BASIC DATA 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Lagging Indicators Major Economic Process EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Long-Duration Unemployment Investment Expenditures Inventories Year and month *502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over *61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (Percent) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) *71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value 65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value (Bil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) 1966 January February March 0.8 0.8 0.8 58!oo 65.13 63.91 66.58 121.57 122.54 123.63 23.45 23.62 23.81 April May June 0.8 0.7 0.6 60! 16 65.20 65.30 66.18 124.70 126.18 127.58 23.84 24.07 24.14 July August September 0.6 0.6 0.6 61.25 68.41 68.19 68.68 128.71 130.04 130.84 24.50 24.67 24. BS 0.7 0,6 0.6 g>62ls6 69.13 68.12 68.56 132.39 133.86 135.55 25.08 25.54 26.00 0.6 0.6 0.6 6l*.65 70, 44 69.50 68.85 136.59 136.78 137.09 26.40 26.67 26.83 0.6 |t> 0.5 0.6 61,50 66.79 67.56 68.30 137.35 137.43 137.08 27.13 27.28 27.00 July August September 0.6 0.6 0.6 60! 90 70.20 69,75 70,52 137.40 138.19 138.13 27.20 27.35 27.29 October November December 0.6 0.6 0.6 r!38.64 a62*.05 . r27.27 |J>p27.48 (NA) October November December .... 1967 January February March .... April May June ft> r68.95 P70.75 (HA) P13 ^ U? 1968 January February March a65!o5 .. . April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by [j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "aT, anticipated; and "NA r not available. 41 Table 2A BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued bed Lagging Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Minor Economic Process Unit Labor Costs Year and month MONEY AND CREDIT Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages Outstanding Debt 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product (1958 dol.), nonfinancial corporations *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 66. Consumer installment debt *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (u)1 118. Mortgage yields, residential @ (Dollars) (1957-59 = 100) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 1966 5.55 5.70 (NA) 6.00 5*82 (NA) 6.32 6.45 6.30 6.51 6.58 6.63 B>6l3i (NA) 6.81 6.77 99.3 99.8 99.9 67,920 68,458 69,107 53,255 53,747 54,522 100.7 100.4 101.0 69,638 70,131 70,680 55,118 56,134 57,874 100.8 101.8 102.1 71,244 71,846 72,321 59,380 59,014 59,381 0.693 102.3 103.1 103.0 72,701 73,145 73,466 59,911 r60,042 59,732 January February . . March 0.711 104.8 105.3 105.6 73,746 73,962 74,226 60,754 60,525 61,167 6a3 6.62 6.46 6.35 April May June 0.713 105.4 106.0 106.8 74,439 74,632 74,924 62,407 61,898 63,341 5.95 6.29 6.44 6.51 §£> 0.722 106.6 107.0 |£>-rl08.G 75,149 75,493 75,777 64,352 62,944 63,309 5*.95 6.53 6.60 6.63 107.7 rl07.8 p!06.7 76,088 |t> 76,506 ^ (NA) r63,592 63,797 |£>p64»718 5*.% January . February March 0.670 April May June 0.679 July . . August September . October November December 0.687 1967 July August September October November December (HA) 6.65 6.77 |> 6,81 1968 January February March April May June July August. September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[[E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by > - Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. """Prior to 1967, data are based on 19 cities and refer to the last month of the quarter. 42 Table 2A bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series Major Economic Process PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Retail Prices Foreign Trade and Payments 81. Index of consumer prices @ Year and month (1957-59 = 100) 89. Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-) in U.S. balance of payments a. Liquidity b. Official balance basis settlements basis (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) 88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) 86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) 861. Manufactur862. Index of ers' new orders export orders, for export, durable nonelectrical machinery goods except motor vehicles and parts @ (Mil.dol.) (1957-59 = 100) 87. General imports, total (Mil.dol.) 1966 January February March in. 6 -651 -443 +324. Q +366.1 +501.2 2,271.6 2,371.2 2,568.9 852 849 904 237 201 227 1,947.6 2,005.1 2,067.7 April May June 112.5 112.6 112.9 -122 -175 - +249.9 +348.3 +354.4 2,358.8 2,410.8 2,489.4 749 976 1,078 195 217 217 2,108.9 2,062.5 2,135.0 July August September 113,3 113.8 114*1 -165 -i- 861 +250.7 +339.0 +234.4 2,455.4 2,451.6 2,534.2 805 826 1,059 201 199 • 200 2,204.7 2,112.6 2,299.8 October . . November December 1967 January February March 114.5 114. 6 114.7 -419 -18 +319.7 +299. 8 +184.6 2,580.7 2,486.1 2,415.8 865 785 1,200 240 235 225 2,261.0 2,186.3 2,231.2 114.7 114. 8 115.0 r~529 r~l,815 r+360,4 w>378.1 r+348.5 r2,6l5.9 r2,607.3 r2,551.4 891 833 905 234 196 252 r2,255.5 r2,229.2 r2,202.9 Apri 1 May June 115.3 115.6 116.0 r-547 r-828 iH-427.8 r+407.0 r+349.2 r2,653.8 r2,546.9 r2,576.5 772 1,029 1,043 215 220 218 r2, 226.0 r2,139.9 r2,227.3 July .... August September 116.5 116.9 117.1 r-636 r+470 r+376.1 r+422,8 r+434.2 r2, 584.1 r2,547.9 r2,642.7 875 841 905 219 230 '221 r2, 208.0 r2, 125.1 r2, 208.5 October November December 1968 January . . . . February March.. . . 117.5 117.8 118.2 (NA) (HA) r+190.8 1*316.5 +79.1 r2,392.3 r2,692.2 2,603.9 r796 p864 (HA) 272 P239 (IA) r2,201.5 2,375.7 2,524.8 111.0 112.0 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 43 Table 2A BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series— Continued Major Economic Process FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Minor Economic Process Federal Government Activities 84. Federal 95. Federal cash surplus (+) surplus (+) or deficit (-), or deficit (-) * national income and product account (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) bil.dol.) Year and month 1966 January February March +2,2 82. Federal 83. Federal cash receipts cash payments to the public from the public1 101. National defense purchases, current dollars 91. Defense Department obligations, total 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Mil dol.) (Mi Idol.) 92. Military 99. New orders, defense prime contract awards to )roducts U.S. business ndustries firms and institutions (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) -12! 8 133*6 146.4 55!i 5,100 5,1^9 5,379 1,639 1,736 1,904 3.40 3.04 3. 38 2,940 2,850 2,913 (Bii.dol.) (Mil. dol.) April May June +3*2 +5.0 H3.4 143*4 58.4 6,444 5,447 7,084 2,109 1,620 2,415 3.30 2.91 3.68 3,359 3,061 3,724 July August September . -0,7 ~9.*9 149,* 6 158'.9 63.6 4,993 7,215 6,579 1,753 2,251 1,866. 3.50 3.16 4,67 4,016 3,170 3,530 October November December ~3*.3 -0.9 153^5 154.4 65*6 6,059 5,969 6,023 1,931 1,723 1,937 3.31 2,73 3.36 3,396 3,252 3,501 January February March -rL*9 +1.7 156,' 7 155.0 70.2 6,518 6,595 6,343 2,296 2,140 1,903 2,85 3.33 .3,24 3,338 3,849 2,984 April May June -14.* 7 +1."6 isi! i 152.5 72*. 5 6,211 7,896 7,170 1,715 .2,608 2,330 3.27 3.86 4.20 2,920 4,121 3,626 July August September ~13*.2 -19* 5 154! 6 173! 5 73! 3 5,357 6,953 7,814 1,435 1,907 3.64 2.84 3.71 3,610 3,686 3,665 -is!o 155^2 173*2 p74.*3 7,620 6,397 (MA) r4.09 r3.14 p3.66 3,665 p3,329 (NA) .... 1967 October November December (NA) , ' 3,221 2,905 1,947 (NA) 1968 January February March April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by (u). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Beginning -with 2d quarter 1966, data reflect graduated withholding of personal income taxes and change in schedule for depositing withheld and OASI taxes. 44 Table 2A bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued U.S. Series Under Consideration Major Economic Process UNCLASSIFIED INDICATORS Minor Economic Process Unclassified Indicators Year and month 1966 January February March 850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Percent) (Ratio) (Ratio) (1957-59 = 100) (Ratio) 855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled to persons unemployed (Ratio) 856. Ratio, average earnings of production workers in manufacturing to consumer prices (1957-59 = 100) 857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing (Percent) r90*.5 1.43 1.45 1.42 3.21 3.28 3.25 117.9 119.1 119.7 0.053 0.133 0.145 0.150 113.4 113.7 113.2 7.*5 April May June 90.9 1.46 1.46 1.47 3.37 3.40 3.50 119.8 121.5 123.2 0.057 0.154 0.147 0.143 113.5 113.7 113.7 6^9 July August September 90.6 1.48 1.49 1.51 3.49 3.54 3.64 124.8 125.9 126.4 0.057 0.144 0.145 0.154 113.8 133.8 114.3 6^8 r90,0 1.52 1.54 1.54 3.67 3.67 3.62 125.4 125.9 126.1 0.066 0.150 0.154 0.141 114.1 114.0 113.9 6*9 January February March . rp87.1 1.56 1.58 1.57 3.64 3.68 3.5S 126.3 127.7 125.8 0.073 0.139 0.130 0.131 114.3 115.1 114.8 6.* 5 April May June rp84*.9 1.58 1.57 1.55 3.73 3.69 3.74 124,7 124.7 123.4 0,067 0.125 0.121 0.112 114.9 114.9 115.2 6.1 July August September rp84.1 1.54 1.55 1.56 3.71 3.63 3.78 122.9 121.5 r!22.3 0.070 0.112 0.118 0.119 115.2 115.6 115.5 6. 4 October November December p84.3 1.58 pi. 54 (NA) 3.88 r3.68 P3.52 rll9.7 r!22«0 p!20.0 pO.075 0.109 0.117 pO.120 115.3 rl!5.3 pl!5.6 (HA) October . . . November . . December 1967 1968 January February March April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 45 Table 2B BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Major Economic Process INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES Minor Economic Process Industrial Production Indexes bed 47. United States, index of industrial production 123. Canada, index of industrial production 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production 121. OECD, 1 European countries, index of industrial production 126. France, index of industrial production 125. West Germany, index of industrial production 128. Japan, in- 127. Italy, index dex of industrial of industrial proproduction duction (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59 =100) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59-100) (1957-59 =100) 1966 January February March 151 152 154 161 163 163 132 131 134 152 152 155 147 150 152 158 157 161 252 251 257 186 187 190 April May . June 154 155 156 164 163 163 132 130 130 153 153 154 151 151 154 160 159 161 261 265 267 187 196 195 July August September 157 158 ,158 . 163 164 166 132 131 130 155 153 156 155 155 156 158 154 156 273 277 279 194 195 202 October November December 1967 January February March 159 159 160 167 168 167 128 127 129 153 153 155 155 156 156 154 154 153 285 291 299 200 201 204 158 157 156 166 166 166 129 129 129 153 153 155 156 154 156 151 150 152 301 300 309 205 209 208 April . May June 156 156 156 168 167 168 130 128 129 155 154 155 153 152 156 150 151 151 312 315 323 210 212 212 July August September 157 158 157 169 170 170 r!29 rl29 128 156 154 r!57 156 156 rl60 156 rl52 r!56 323 327 337 r210 r!97 211 rl57 159 pl62 P169 p!28 (NA) p!58 (NA) 160 pl60 (NA) 158 pl60 (MA) r339 P347 (NA) p2!6 (HA) Year and month . October November December 1968 January February March (NA) April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The ".r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. •''Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 46 Table 2B bed BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued Major Economic Process CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES Minor Economic Process Consumer Price Indexes Year 81. United States, index of consumer prices (u) 133. Canada, index of consumer prices @ (1957-59 =100) (1957-59 = 100) 132. United King136. France, index of consumer dom, index of consumer prices® prices © 135. West Germany, 138. Japan, index index of consumer of consumer prices ® prices® 137. Italy, index of consumer prices® and month (1957-59= 100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59=100) 1966 January February March 111 112 112 . ' 113 .114 114 ' - . . 124 124 •125 13? 13? 138 120 121 121 112 113 113- 115 115 116 126 127 12? 138 139 138 122 122 122 July.. August September 113 114 114 116 116 117 12? 12? 12? 139 139 139 122 122 122 October November December 114 115 ,115 11? •117 11? 128 128 129 140 140 140 122 122 123 January February ...... ... March 115 115 115 ' 117 11? 118 129 129 129 141 141 142 123 123 123 April 115 116 116 119 119 120 130 130 130 142 142 142 124 124 July August September 116 11? 11? 121 121 121 130 130 129 142 143 143 124 123' 123 October November December 11$ 118 ll'B 121 121 p!22 129 p!31 (HA) 144 pl45 (NA) p!23 (HA) April May - June ... • ' • • . 146 14? 148 133 133 133 150 148 149 133 134 134 149 14S 150 134 134 134 " . . 151 150 ••• -151 ' 134 135 136 153 154 • 154 13? 138 138 1967 May • June. • . - • . , • 124 . . 154 ' • 153 \ 152 138 138 139 152 *153 156 139 139 140 ; ' ' 159 ' .' pl59 (HA) . 140 p!40 (MA) 1968 January February March April May . June July August. September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; y, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 47 Table 2B BASIC DATA JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued Major Economic Process HOCK PRICE INDEXES Minor Economic Process Stock Price Indexes 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks ® 143. Canada, index of stock prices® 142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices © 146. France, index of stock prices @ (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59 = 100) January February March 189 188 180 192 191 186 173 178 174 127 April May . . June 186 176 174 190 182 July August September October November December Year and month 145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index index of stock of stock prices ® prices® (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59=100) bed 147. Italy, index of stock prices® (1957-59-100) 1966 118 177 180 178 223 230 241 147 153 156 182 173 179 181 114 110 110 175 168 159 240 243 236 144 143 143 174163 158 180 171 162 173 154 152 108 108 102 149 150 154 231 230 226 146 147 145 156 164 165 158 162 166 150 147 151 101 107 103 151 147 148 224 221 218 149 147 144 January February March 171 177 181 175 180 182 157 156 159 99 103 98 148 156 159 223 229 228 142 141 127 April May June 184 188 185 185 186 186 167 171 172 96 99 98 158 155 154 223 231 231 129 132 130 July August September 189 192 194 189 194 198 176 177 187 94 99 110 156 175 182 231 215 209 129 133 139 October November December 194 188 193 192 188 189 196 203 200 109 106 p-103 p!82 pl93 213 206 p!97 p!98 143 139 p!35 p!91 p!90 p2QO p!06 p212 p203 p!34 123 1967 1968 January February March April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 48 Section TWO \ ANALYTICAL MEASURES charts and tables DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS Average workweek—27 industries New orders—36 industries Capital appropriations—77 industries Profits—1,000 corporations Sfock prices—77 industries Industrial materials prices—7 3 materials State unemployment claims—47 areas Nonagricultural employment—30 industries Production—24 industries Wholesale prices—22 industries Retail sales—23 fypes of sfores Nef sales—800 companies New orders—400 companies Car/codings—79 commodity groups Plant and equipment expenditures—78 industries BASIC DATA AND DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES Chart 2 bed JANUARY ANALYTICAL MEASURES 1968 DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT Leading Indexes (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (July) [Aug.; P T (May) (Feb.) P T Percent Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 Indus. Indus.-36 Indus. MM., spaa— MI mm— CB of NY, percent 1,000 mfg. corp. (1-Q span) ommon stocks- 11 Indus. prkas, Industrial D5. 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 prices-13 Indus, mtls State 57 58 59 insur-47 artas (inverted) 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts I and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. 51 Chart 2 ANALYTICAL MEASURES JANUARY 1968 bed DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Roughly Coincident Indexes Percent ale prim, 1948 49 50 51 52 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. 52 53 54 55 56 indus. 57 58 59 Current data for these series are shown on page 56. span— 1-mo. span-- 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Chart 2 bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES JANUARY 1968 DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Actual and Anticipated Indexes (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) [Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.] P T Series number and date of survey 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 3d Q 1966-3d Q 1967 1st Q 1966-lst Q 1967 2d Q 1967-3d Q 1967 5? 58 Percent Anticipated Actual D35, D36 (September 1967) 048 (December 1967) D61 (November 1967) 1948 (May) [Feb.) P T 59 1st Q 1967-lst Q 1968 1st Q 1967-lst Q 1968 4th Q 1967-lst Q 1968 80 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4, Current data for these series are shown on page 57. 53 Table 3 ANALYTICAL MEASURES JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES bed Leading Indexes Year and month Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing (21 industries) 1-month span D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (36 industries) 1-month span 9-month span 9-month span Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations, NICB (17 industries) 1-quarter span 3-quarter span 1966 January February March 50.0 81,0 42.9 81.0 85.7 38.1 30.6 50.0 84.7 75.0 75.0 66.7 65 76 April May June 35.7 54. 8 33.3 50.0 45.2 40.5 41.7 50.0 51.4 72.2 58.3 59.7 62 47 July August September 19.0 66.7 64.3 23.8 0.0 9.5 50.0 59.7 37.5 55.6 44.4 41.7 29 47 October November December 35.7 38.1 9,5 9.5 14.3 14.3 50.0 44.4 55.6 36.1 31.9 27.8 59 35 1967 January February March 69.0 4,8 61.9 9.5 9.5 9.5 31.9 38.9 55.6 38.9 41.7 45.8 53 47 April May June 47.6 26.2 52.4 19.0 42.9 28.6 50.0 58.3 61.1 66.7 U7.1 r5.88 53 p47 July August September. . . 64.3 73.8 71.4 r76,2 P61.9 52.8 65.3 X 38.2 r86.8 *p88.2 P53 October November December r28.6 r73.8 p26.2 X r55.9 *73.5 *P64.7 X X (NA) (NA) 1968 January February March April Mav June July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. 1 Based on 34 industries. 54 bed Table 3 ANALYTICAL JANUARY 1968 MEASURES LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued Leading Indexes-Continued D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices (about 1,000 corporastocks (77 industries)® -1 (13 industrial materials) tions) Year and month 1-quarter span 1966 - • '5V , April May June - ;-.^:''iV r '?6.9. July August September ' ' ;' ; -Hv3' . : ""' 6>«6 3.9 59 : . October November December « »» 54 1967 January February March 4S . 23,4* ' 3W" 6*5 . 3.9 ' 50 ; \'M''H-% .* ;::^;;^;,;;46.2 - ' * -- 22;ir; - -. . ^ !^]f ^ |l»f Il|(lil||ffl!|^| lllfflllifN ' ^ ^, <*$&$}. xsv \, - t v - - „ • • , ;, ,;; ; -\ i\ x - v 5 % v - 5 ~ ' ^ s ; i <; ' ,- ^y, - f,\,; ^i^^ ^ - J x ; , ^ . ; oVoV • ' :" ^^$$&^ > ;. --:^;>23*4N 59.7 90.9 92.2 61,0 85,7 90,3 97.4 46.2 53.8 23.1 ' 0*0 15*4 ' 26.9 - 23.1 ^ 61.5 , . 69.2 30.8 23.1 23.1 . 55.3 54- 3\ 5$v3. 23.1 '34.0' 72,3 o; . 60.6 • as, 3 • 76,0 74,0 51.3 93,4 92.1 86,2 July August September 53 81,6 77.6 57.2 68,4 65. 8 (MA) T^e^Vx^ \^ll4v4lT-*K^tv!;^l — 47. 4: ' 58. 4; " 66.2 25,3 45 , v!!' ;/*jo.a : 9-month span MVW : ^;€^ 1 \ :!/":,53vlV:i j - - li;7, "; ^/r' S"42.3 - . ^ '^.-^CM -.^^«S»t^ %;>^: \r • -6*r'; £-> ' ; 46..Z Vi5*;4;< J" oYJ^Si^ !S:;g!|il^ yr^SSN^;^^ : ::; ' ^ = : 7*7.; .-X :/M^:VA?4*t- >-?; -v? *-' -61.5 'WaJ ! : '9.*": :'': : <, 7^7 : ^ l ^ f > V^feSiSrr ;;;^:-: ^ VB^rj - 22.1 ^' ". ^ 26,9 ' ; n : ' ; Q.O : W\l : ; ; • '- " . , . 7.7-:" . ;vv: ^fc^^> ^ ^ \v\;9*^ : April . May June October November December 1-month span \ 74Vo: / : ;^Kswl^' ^-;.c$-' V"'"'SS| '. .' 48;7 '^--r^&i^s '. - v.;-4£5 -: ; : : ; 9-month span ; ; January February March 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas) / 19.2 •> . 30.8 ' . 57.7 30.8 . 53.S 19.2 32,2 7.9 71.1 46.2 46.2 61.5 0.0 ... o.o- ' 9'30.8 ^ \ 4.6^8* / ' ^T'^ - ; - ^ -17^0 :<:\::!;v;^yf;: v - • : "'- 27.7 ' " . 55,3': \ i7.«l ; . - ' „ , &*5 . . ;4S,a/ - 46* a . . ' ' •• • ^a.5 • '' 31*9 . . 44.7^ - 29. 8 . ' - 78.7 • .'•; 7S.7 3f*3 7*,*'46. S ' 1968 January February March S 3B,5 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. •'•Based on 77 components through June 1967 and on 76 components thereafter. 2 Average for January 18, 19, and 22. 55 Table 3 ANALYTICAL MEASURES JANUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued bed Roughly Coincident Indexes Year and month D41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (30 industries) 1-month span 6-month span D47. Index of industrial production (24 industries) 1-month span D58. Index of wholesale prices (22 manufacturing industries) @ 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span D54. Sales of retail stores (23 types of stores) 1-month span 9-month span 1966 January February March 81,7 88.3 95.0 95.0 91.7 83.3 70.8 70.8 91.7 95.8 91.7 79.2 79.5 75.0 72.7 88.6 95.5 93.2 76.1 65.2 60.9 82.6 84.8 78.3 April May June 80.0 75.0 93.3 81.7 81.7 73.3 72.9 62.5 75.0 75.0 79.2 66.7 70.5 86.4 75.0 95.5 95.5 86.4 43,5 30.4 95.7 78.3 82.6 78.3 July August September 56.7 78.3 35.0 76.7 73.3 73.3 50.0 75.0 43.8 75.0 66.7 66.7 72.7 54.5 47.7 72.7 72.7 63.6 47.8 47.8 60.9 76.1 65.2 82.6 October November December 81.7 76.7 70.0 85.0 65.0 65.0 72.9 56.2 50.0 66.7 45.8 33.3 63.6 63.6 54.5 63.6 72.7 72.7 43.5 69.6 41.3 87.0 78.3 82.6 January February March 71.7 43.3 43.3 55.0 41.7 43.3 25.0 25.0 39.6 41.7 29.2 25.0 77.3 72.7 56.8 63.6 68.2 65.9 87.0 39.1 43.5 69.6 91.3 95.7 April May June 40.0 41.7 71.7 38.3 41.7 36.7 43.8 25.0 56.2 33.3 43.8 47.9 47.7 56.8 50.0 63.6 63.6 63.6 60.9 34.8 82.6 87.0 91.3 r56.5 July August September 53.3 58.3 35.0 r48.3 r75.0 p70.0 58.3 66.7 41.7 r58.3 66.7 p70.8 63.6 65.9 75.0 72.7 81.8 81.8 43.5 60.9 76.1 r73.9 p69.6 October November December r75.0 93.3 p71.7 1967 r52.1 83.3 p87.5 • 72.7 77.3 90.9 r37.0 r65.2 p32.6 1968 January February March April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table 4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. 56 Table 3 bed JANUARY ANALYTICAL MEASURES 1968 LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued Actual and Anticipated Indexes D35. Net sales, manufactures D36. New orders, durable manu(800 companies)® factures (400 companies) © Year and month 4- quarter span Actual 1966 January February March D61. New plant and equipment expenditures (18 industries) 4- quarter span 1- quarter span 4- quarter span Anticipated Actual Actual Anticipated Anticipated Change in total (000) Actual ' April May June July August. September October November , December 1967 January February March April . . May June 048. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured commodity groups) © ... July August September October November December 1968 January February March *87 *91 *85 *89 ".. 57^9 84,2 4-21 *84 *83 *82 *83 52.6 78,9 *+l 72 *84 *68 *82 42.1 78.9 -50 *72 *84 *67 *8Q (NA) 52.6 -91 'TO '82 *65 *78 78^9 -131 'si (NA) *78 , 73.7 r-91 'so 73.7 (NA) *82 .- Anticipated 83.3 62.5 83.3 71.9 55*6 37,5 75.0 65.6 55.6 50.0 30.6 41.7 33.3' 44.4 (NA) 50.0 p63.9 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. 57 Table 4 ANALYTICAL MEASURES JANUARY 1968 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS Basic Data and Direction of Change 1967 Diffusion index components May July June October1" September August December p November Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING I (Average weekly hours) [ All manufacturing industries 4- (26) 40.3 (52) 4.2.0 40.1 o 40.1 ,4. 41.1 440.6 o 41.3 42.3 39.9 441.7 41.1 39.5 41.2 40.1 40.3 41.3 40.6 41.2 42.0 40.0 41.2 41.0 39.4 + 40.6 438.3 440.5 _ 35.9 42.5 438.3 O 41.? 442.6 o 40.9 437.7 4- 41.0 39.0 40.4 35.7 42.6 40.3 Durable goods industries: Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries 4- 4- 44- Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products o o o o 38.3 41.3 42.6 41.2 37.9 40.4 (64) 4- 4- + + 41.8 39.9 40.2 41.3 40.9 41.3 4- 42.1 _ o + + O _ 444O 444- 40.3 41.4 41.0 39.2 40.6 38.4 40.6 35.9 42.7 38.3 41.5 42.8 40.6 38.4 _ O 44444+ + + + 44_ _ O O 44- 40.7 (74) 4- 41.9 39.7 40.2 41.6 41.0 41.5 42.2 40.4 42.5 41.2 39.4 4- 40.8 38.9 41.0 35.8 42.6 38.3 41.5 43.1 42.0 38.3 40.8 40.7 (71) (29) 42.4 40.5 40.7 42.0 41.0 41,8 42.7 40.2 42.7 41.2 39.5 444- o 4440 4- o _ _ 4_ 4_ _ _ 41.0 38.0 41.4 36.3 42.8 4_ 44+ 4_ — O 38.3 41.5 42.4 41.9 38.9 O O 4- O + 0 o 40.7 (74) 41.7 40.5 40.4 41.8 41.3 41.4 42.3 40.5 41.5 41.1 39.4 4- r42.0 r41.3 r40.5 r42.2 r41.6 r41.5 r42.4 r40.5 r39.7 r41.1 r39.7 40.7 39.0 41.3 35.8 42.8 38.0 41.5 43.0 41.9 38.7 4_ 444444O O 4- 44O 44— _ 4- r40.8 r38.2 r41.5 36.4 r42.8 38.3 r41.9 r42.9 r41.8 r39.5 4- 40.8 (26) 41.6 40.9 40.5 41.6 41.7 41.3 42.3 40.2 41.6 41.2 39.4 _ 0 _ 4— «. 44_ 40.7 36.5 41.8 36.2 43.2 38.2 41.8 42.7 41.7 38.5 _ 4_ 4„ ^ _. ^ D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 (Millions of dollars) ———~— All durable goods industries 4- 23,857 ?4,263 23,715 (58) (61) (53) 3,606 2,020 3,591 1,886 4- Primary metals Blast furnaces steel mills Nonferrous metals Iron and steel foundries Other primary metals. -f 4- -f- 4- 4- 4- Fabricated metal products Metal cans, barrels, and drums Hardware, structural metal and wire products Other fabricated metal products _^ Machinery, except electrical Steam engines and turbines*. Internal combustion engines* Farm machinery and equipment Construction, mining, and material handling*. Metalworking machinery* Miscellaneous equipment* Machine shops. Special industry machinery* General industrial machinery* Office and store machines* Service industry machinery* 4- 1,979 3,590 427 4- 429 4- 571 226 ,_ + 4- 598 217 _ r3*758 p2,06l 44- 269 4- 4- 455 1,056 (NA) (NA) 4- _ 44. + 44. 4- 4- 3,588 3,679 - 309 4- 302 4- 668 327 32,379 4- •f 681 203 4- >3,869 4- 4- 4- 4- /»!•*> (NAJ 44- p693 P215 4, (HA) (NA) •f 44- 298 302 (NA) p381 4- 622 240 4- 44- (65) 4- 2,246 2,009 4- 299 4- 4- 3,945 _ + ! 4, 2,254 4- 44- 4- 4 - 2 3,111 (74) 4, 4- 251 1,905 4- 44-j. 2 (56) 3,467 3,612 1,971 4- + 633 197 4- 2 (38) 4- r 23,843 4. 4- 3,564 _ + 3,470 1,794 2 44- 4- _ 4- 404 _ >3,381 4- 4- 3,497 (65) >3,416 4- 4- 4- 1,994 23,726 4- 2,108 2,106 3,646 + o 313 + •P294 4- + -f 4> (NA) 4* NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) == unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. •^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted "by source agency. 2 Based on 34 components. 58 Table 4 bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES JANUARY 1968 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued 1967 Diffusion index components May June July August September October November December D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1-Continued (Mi II ions of dollars) Electrical machinery Electrical transmission distr. equipment* Electrical industrial apparatus* Household appliances Radio and TV Communication equipment! Electronic components. Other electrical machinery* Transportation equipment Motor vehicle parts Motor vehicle assembly operations Complete aircraft! Aircraft partsf Shipbuilding and railroad equipment* Other transportation equipment Instruments total Lumber total Furniture total Stone clay and glass total Other durable goods, total 3,250 4- 779 44- 3,455 3,579 883 733 773 733 + 4- + 4- 3,640 3', 554 794 638 4- 44 4- 4- 804 889 o 44- 444- 4- ! ... 4- MA MA 4 4- 4- 4- (NA) 4-f p6 544 r5 , 769 MA Mfi MA Mft 4- 44- 44- 4- 44 (NA) /,T . \ (NA) 4- r6 241 MA MA 44- p647 764 4- -f 4- ».. 4- 44- 4+ 4- + 4- 6,019 5,950 4~ 4- p730 4- 6,697 7,327 4 p3»399 r659 4- 7,209 + 999 4- 4- 44~ 4- r3,473 4- 4- + 4~ 4- 4- 4- 44 4- 4- 4- 4- -f 4- 4-f. 44- 1 D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2 (1941-43 -10) Index of 500 stock prices Coal, bituminous Food composite Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers) Textile products Paper Publishing Chemicals Drugs Oil composite Building materials composite Steel Metal fabricating Machinery composite Office and business equipment Electric household appliances Electronics Automobi les Radio and television broadcasters Telephone companies Electric companies Natural gas distributors Retail stores composite Life insurance 4- 92.59 91.43 (74) (51) 4- 93.01 4, (82) ; 94.49 (78) 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 44- 4- 4- 4- 4 4- 4- 95,66 (32) (57) 4- 4- 95.81 92,66 4- 95.30 (71) 44- 44, 44- 4- 4- (8) 4- 4~ + 4. 4- 44- 4~ 4~ 4, 44. 44. 4. 4 4" 4. 4* 4. 4, 4- 4- 4. 4- 4- 4- 4- 44. 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4* 4. 4- 44. « 44> 4- 4- „ 4- 4- 4- 44- 4, 4. 4" 4- 4- 4- 4- 4. 4. 4- 44. NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 99. ^•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4. 3 Based on 76 components beginning -with July 1967. 59 Table 4 ANALYTICAL MEASURES JANUARY 1968 bed SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued 1967 1968 Diffusion index components May July June August September October November January1 December D23, INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2 Industrial materials price index (1957-59=100) ~ - '99*6 4. 99.8 *. 93.3 «. 98.1 » 97. a * 97.7 4- 99.1 4 .100,1 ~ 99.6 (Dollars) Percent rising of 13 components Copper scrap (Ib.) Lead scrap (Ib.). Steel scrap (ton) Tin(lb.) Zincflb.) Burlap (yd.) Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average Print cloth (yd.), average Wool tops (Ib.) Hides (Ib.). Rosin (100 Ib.) Rubber (Ib.) Tallow (Ib.) 4 -f 4 . . 44444- (62) (69) (31) '*368 .366 .371 .065 .064 + .065 * 28,261 4- 29.016 27.451 1,528 41.550 1,557 '. . .142 .142 .141 .145 »H5 4, ,141 4.21? 4~ .219 4, .223 .193 4.193 .194 1.677 1.646 1.663 -f .166 .152 .157 410.721 4- 10.872 10.753 .201 4, ,209 .214 ,050 .052 .051 4 4- 44 4 44- (54) .385 .064 27.195 1.528 .1,41 .139 .231 .193 1,603 .152 10,971 .200 ,.052 4-' 4 O (19) .382 .062 30,174, 1.456 *.14G .134 .237 .193 1.588 .152 10.971 .195 .050 4- 44. 4. 44- (46) • .385 4 ,062 28,756 4 1.486 4.140 ,135; ' .239 4. .192 4> 1.591 .153 4 ,10,949 .185 .049 (62) (46) .452 4- . ,473 ,060 .061 29.723 29.774 1.510 4. 1.547 .139 .139 4* .132 .133 4 .275 .254" .195 .193, 4*' 1.523' 4 1.553 .167 .159 410,938 10,894 ,171 V .177 .046 ,044 (38) 4- 4- 44- 4- ,500 V .060 - 29.56G 1.503 .139 .129 ,262 ,198 1,575 .164 10.839 .168 .044 05. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3 (Thousands) Avg. weekly initial claims ... 4 Northeast region: Boston (6) Buffalo (20) Newark (11) New York (1) Paterson (22) . . . . Philadelphia (4) Pittsburgh (9). Providence (25) North Central region: Chicago (2) Cincinnati (21) Cleveland (10) Columbus (26) Detroit (5) Indianapolis (23) Kansas City (19). Milwaukee (17) Minneapolis (13) St. Louis (8) South region: Atlanta (18) Baltimore (12). Dallas (15) Houston (14). West region: Los Angeles (3) Portland (24) . San Francisco (7) Seattle (16) 234 4- (54) Percent rising of 47 components 225 ; (55) : 4 4 265 -f 211 (34) 4 4 , 203 (38) 4 4. 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 44 4- 4 4,, 4 4- 4 4- 44- . *'« 4 4- 4 ~ 4~ 4 4- 4- 4- 4- 4. 4 4 4 4. 4 4- 44 -f 4 44. 4- 4- 4 4 4 4*- 4- 4 4 4 4 4 4 ^ 4 4 4 4 4- ... *. * 4 4- 4 4 4- 4 4 4- 4 44 4- 4 44 -f- 4- 4. 4 4. 4 4 4- 4 + 197 (47) ; 4- 4 4 , 194 (74) 44 4- 4 4- 4- 200 -~ (61) (72) . 4- 4- 44 4 4- ... 4- NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (-1-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised, 1 Average for January 18, 19, and 22. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded. 3 The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises: (-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month. Directions of change are shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank. 2 60 FRASER Digitized for bed Table 4 ANALYTICAL MEASURES JANUARY 1968 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued 1967 Diffusion index components May June July August Octoberr September November December? D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1 (Thousands of employees) All nonagri cultural establishments . 0 Percent rising of 30 components .......... Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery Electrical equipment Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mi II products... Apparel and related products . . . Paper and allied products. Printing and publishing.. Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products Mining Contract construction Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retai 1 trade Finance, insurance, real estate Servi-ce and miscellaneous Federal government State and local government . o 4 4 4 4 4 4 + 4 4 4 4 4 65,639 4. (42) 65,903 147 50? 375 495 1,042 1,041 1,373 1,284 1,361 287 342 4 4 149 512 371 498 1,037 1,048 1,372 1,251 1,377 285 340 1,196 74 835 1,235 525 672 580 117 354 305 4 617 3,192 4,267 3,549 10,060 3,205 9,987 2,698 8,826 4 -f 4. 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 O 4 4 4 4 4 4 4- (72) 1,201 75 841 1,239 535 673 583 119 362 302 619 3,187 4,266 3,555 10,093 3,227 10,035 2,747 8,889 65,939 4 (53) 4 O 4 0 4 4 4. 4 O 0 4 4 4 0 O 4 4 4 4 151 5GS 366 498 1,023 1,041 1,368 1,265 1,326 285 339 1,185 76 834 1,220 536 674 585 119 362 295 623 3,231 4,292 3,555 10,092 3,234 10,074 2,759 8,910 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 O 4 4 O 4 4 O 4 4 4 66,190 66,055 4- (58) (35) 155 509 369 497 1,024 1,048 1,375 1,290 1,410 285 337 154 508 370 494 1,003 1,023 1,365 1,260 1,297 281 336 4 1,175 69 842 1,218 527 669 585 120 407 300 4 1,148 72 839 1,223 534 673 585 118 401 299 606 3,223 4,283 3,569 10,095 3,253 10,130 2,746 8,967 4 4 4 O 4 4. 4 4 4 4 4 - 601 3,238 4,262 3,565 10,154 3,264 10,161 2,715 8,953 66,243 + (75) 4 4 4. 4 4 4 4 4 4 4> 4 O 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1,185 70 847 1,223 531 669 594 121 408 303 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 O 4 4 4 67,128 (72) (93) 157 513 374 500 1,009 1,024 1,329 1,270 1,289 283 335 597 3,236 4,251 3,567 10,209 3,270 10,199 2,712 9,033 66,929 4. r!5B r515 r377 r507 r 1,032 rl,G41 *1,373 rl,291 rl,379 r284 r336 4 rl,187 r77 849 r 1,232 r533 r673 r594 , 122 r4!2 r307 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 O 4 4 O 162 520 382 512 1,028 1,047 1,333 1,295 1,398 286 342 1,196 70 858 1,235 535 673 595 121 413 307 r597 r3,299 r4,288 r3,599 0 4 no ,310 o 4 4 4 r3,290 rlO,301 r2,698 r9,129 4 597 3,350 4,289 3,596 10,314 3,302 10,335 2,692 9,184 4- r!59.3 4 161.6 O ,4 4 4 4 4 4 0 D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1 (1957-59=100) All industrial production 155.6 Percent rising of 24 components2 Durable goods: Primary and fabricated metals. . . Primary metal products Fabricated metal products Machinery and related products . Machinery, except electrical .... Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Clay, glass, and lumber Clay, glass, and stone products Lumber and products Furniture and miscellaneous Furniture and fixtures Miscellaneous 0 4 4 181.7 178.9 167.5 185.3 4 (56) (25) 128.9 160.8 155.6 4 O 4 12916 160.8 4 181.3 172.4 169.3 184,1 4 4 4 156.6 158.1 156.8 156,6 (58) (67) (42) (52) 129*6 159.8 129.3 159.1 129.2 r!58.1 182,*6 183.2 171.9 183.2 182,1 182.4 159.2 183.1 . 182.2 177,1 170.8 182.9 4 4 4 4 4 4 O 4 4 4 (88) (83) 133.! 6 158,1 4 4. rl34.8 rl59.6 177.2 182.8 159.3 183.2 4 4 180,9 186.3 rl65.7 rl85.4 4 4 4 4 4. 4 4 4 0 134*8 115.6 133.5 114.9 166.* 5 158.1 166." 3 156.7 4 4 134*1 115.5 4 162*. 7 155,4 4 136*9 109.2 164*8 154.9: 4 4 4 4 138*4: 4 : rlH.3; 4 166*3 156.4 4 139*7 117.0 4 166*6 155.0 4 4 r!42.3 p!21,5 4 168*. 0 r!54.8: 4 4 142 161 180 187 177 186 137 145 (NA) 171 155 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p - preliminary, r = revised. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded. 61 Table 4 ANALYTICAL MEASURES bed JANUARY 1968 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued 1967 Diffusion index components May June July August October September November December D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued (1957-59=100) Nondurable goods: Textiles apparel and leather .............. o • 137. a ~ Textile mill products* ......... 4 142:6 ~ Apparel products 105.0 4. Leather and products* .................. Paper and printing Paper and products Printing and publishing. Chemicals petroleum and rubber Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Foods, beverages, and tobacco Foods and beverages. Tobacco products Minerals: Coal Crude oil and natural gas Metal, stone, and earth minerals Metal mining Stone and earth minerals 4 141.9rfU5*£.. If ' >H7.3" »U6.4 . .W) '. P&09.6 .•(HUN 136.6 4* 144,2 4. 103.0 4, 138.7 146.4 106.5- 4 4 4-' , 141.3 rl46,S, 108.4 4 « 4 149,0 148.3 152.8' U8.6-' 4 152,9 -145.4 '4 ... 4 201.0 132. 8 170.1 200.7 133*2 203.1 4, 4' 202.3 '137.0 -202.4' 4 131*7 '121.4 *. "131,2 '4 • '. 136.6 142.4 105.4 4 4 151,4' 4 151*6 4 ' 147. B 147,4 199*6 . •f . 199.9 132,1' 4,' 134.4 165.7 4 166.9 4_: <pl43 CIA) ' 4 "(w):,- «*H , |5l51: ,CiA) 4'- • _«. 4 132,0 131.9 117*4 4- . 123.9 •f. 120.1 4 117*5 4 4- 131.5 123*6 4 4-' w 4 4. 4 • 122*5' '•121*6 4. 122.6* 4 129.1 4 117.2 * 131.2 133.9 133.3 «~ 4 119.7 , 133.7 **•" 4", 105.7 136.6 ' 120.2 *. 115.5 M27U5 •w rl54.2 '4-" &156; 2*: rl44. 3 - 4 *145*9 - - '«. bl32.2' w., •'**'¥ _ 132.9 ' 4 129.3 4 »* -w :r9$.6 136,5- V, 4 4.. r203»7 r!36,4 p!96.1 ' **' / c. ' *195.3 3206; 7xt37.T -4-. *130.S $31.*' 4- pl9S (HA) ; GfA) Cm) "«» aia.o ;pi47 •4:' (HA) pl31' - (»A) c»4 --(14} " pl!6 .112*3-. 4, ii$*''3- •;4. *124.2: '4-' rl26.4" '«,- -- -,p!25 • 4 - - ' : ' 'p!24 * *-«'•; :«4) r93*$ *»,. -f93*l> .(») •3,32.9 4 ';- >139.4 ' D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2 (1957-59=100) All manufacturing industries 4 106.3 4 Nondurable goods: Processed foods and feeds Cotton products Wool products Manmade fiber textile products Apparel Pulp, paper, and allied products Chemicals and allied products Petroleum products refined Rubber and rubber products Hides, skins, leather, and related products 104*2 100 »$; 103, S 103.2 118.9 ' 105,1 113.7 113,2 ' 106. S 4 (50) (57)- Durable goods: 4 Lumber and wood products 4Furniture and other household durables. « Nonmetallic mineral products Iron and steel 0 Nonferrous metals 4* Fabricated structural metal products. • Miscellaneous metal products 4 General purpose machinery and eQuipment. ..... 4 Miscellaneous machinery 4 Electrical machinery and equipment Motor vehicles and equipment O Miscellaneous products O 106.6 4 € 4 4- ; O- 10&9'- •4. io&v9 ; lbl;6' 1Q&0-- 4 / ' - 4 100.8 103,9 103.3 4 4 - 105.3 100.9 104*2 103.4 4 , 118.6 105.1 if ' 113. a ,' dl3»2. 109.1 -101. 7-V 1 4 4> O ioi.3 |01,'4 ; 109.-6 - 4." • 109.7 106. a ; 4{66} (64) 104.7 116,7- • 104*9 3kl3.7 !' 113*1 ' 109.1101* E o i 106,1 4 4 101.0 4 '' 104*5 103.5 118.9 105.5 114.2 113,6 109.4 lQl.6 101.3 110.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 0> 4 / 4 4 Hh 4* 10^,7 ' 101*2 :: 104"* 7 107*1 -: 4* - 107^3 ' 101.7' 4' 106*7 : 4~ i02,0- - 4'io5vi-c; ; ''- J04*-| : 4 107.6 102.1 t05.3/ 104.7 10S*9;'- 4; ' ; ; 119*4 4 IM*7 - '*''."'• 'is^ 4 ,' 123.7 105*6 ' 4 : 1O5*? ' ; J?'- ' , 10#.9-;- 4. ';'- 106.1 ' 114.1 o- - 114*1'' '0 '- "• SU*l '• 4" 1M.4 |;1'4.7>; 4 ' 11^*2 114*0 4',,, ri4;'4 *_t*^«*t, / . 4 109;7 ' 4 ~ .109*f- .4 ' '" %MM't *i*-\-' JL10.S 101.5 0 ' ' 'XQSUJb' '$•'',*• 5&i&< 4 '": ' 102,3 101.5 • 4 '' :-3:0305' :'-$ ::':'•-'" ttiifc. .^C ' ' 104*0 f 4 ',' li&^i '#& 110*7 110*2 •• '<¥, ' " .,iiO-^' *'",%r,;,/' ^^/^-^ f v * ; 104.0-' : 4 '•• 104*9r 4/ : ; ; 4r' ; 4 4 : 4 4 •'''^/;""!^'^ iia-6:^ 113*1.;' .^ » ' iiaa : 9CS ; ?ev9" 4 110*7 . 4- "/= 4-' -- ^99*7 ioo;3"i;05ri/;] •4-- '. 10^,2 '•• '4 '/" 103*3" : 'W' ;^;S" * '6&3h' ' JJ5.5' : : «. *' '4/' 0,, ;/ o ;' 4-' - .4' • ,' ».< ' 102*9 107.6 (91) ' I?*)- 4- , 107.2,' 4 '•(77');/ 1 (75) J 4 4 107*1" ^ o 4 =4. *, na*'¥/': ,'99*2- ' •tie "•' i02;'?'-'> *•<• ii&& ;^ir 4.^ :: ;; Rali.5 - *»!?' ' "-.' •^sv : W-'; ' "' Id^^; ^4^ |j^*a' fe ' W,2 ' #'.^ ?iJB*i*-/as,>." *?' «r» - ¥;^ ¥)f 3fl^**> l@?3f •»?? ' ."i;^ 4 ' '' &;rv, 104*0 »f, ; 3&;ft* ^f{'i', 104% !''• ioi&i 1^9^' i:$ ; f %^ «tf• :^^»-.^j '^4"' /r'-*,*, -^*5'.' •.£&#' • . 97;* i 'W*® ' i.9«i?' r/ ^:=f r. ' 4- "\ a&4;6 I ^ I I mK^' 103;7;;PJil-- '^' -- toj.l '*-99i^ 103'-; ^'-j „,// s ; y t&&m ^>*- i^J5.:"-<&&' $t'/' - '-9JN&' 0 '' 9J*« • W •'"',*, :• 9 7i'& 4 •^: ' 114U- O-/- 1144^ J35A4T: _^'v IS*$- '^/'- ? i|^?;; K2 IP^,; -C": i06 ;3'- ' 4>/ v 106.7 4% 185*9. 4"' - 107.1'' 4 ; ' 107.3 4 ". 4/ ' 1Q7*;; 4" HP ,*l'> %i', "^ 4" '-;•' *^' NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data are not seasonally adjusted. Digitized 62 for FRASER Table 4 bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES JANUARY 1968 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued 1967 Diffusion index components May July June August Octoberr September November Decemberp D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1 (Millions of dollars) 25*89?: 4 All retail sales Grocery stores Other food stores Eating and drinking places. Department stores Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . . Variety stores Other general merchandise stores Men's and boys' wear stores Women's apparel , accessory stores 4, 4 4 26,544 26,444 (35) (83) (44) 5,50? 44 2>G33 4 2,2S3 4• 215 4• 504 4 5,54$ 4 Shoe stores Furniture home furnishings stores • • Household appliance TV radio stores .......... Lumber yards building materials dealers Hardware stores. Farm equipment dealers Passenger car and other automotive dealers. ...... -f Tire, battery, accessory dealers Gasoline service stations. ................... 4Drug and proprietary stores. Liquor stores. ..«. Jewelry stores .\ 4 5,500 o 2,059 2,3?? 228 516 4 4- 2,071 2,305 236 506 4* 44. 326 596 244 7Q*? 77^ 4 4 4 4 1,996 903 598 4 4> 4 44 - 5,516 4 2,094 2,341 222 516 4 4~ (76) 4 2,110 4 2,354 ' 239 516 4 O 5,543 -» ' • *. 4 2,104 .2,321 250 - ' 508 450 754 260 340 605 241 4 250 781 424 76? 258 40 397 771 260 4 *~ - 4-, — 4,814 316 2,020 903 580 2,040 923 599 4 4 4. 44 4 4 4 ~ 4,731 322 4 4 2,003 913 597 4 4 » 4 4 322 60? 30? 575 25? 812 450 789 252 254 771 423 786 '252 44. 4 4 ~ 4 4^ 4. 4 -. 4,750 319 > 4, 4* 4 4 44 4 4 4 (37) 5,535 ,4 . 4 332 594 4 4,448 304 4- • 4 4 246 420 ?50 251 (61) 26,0^ 26,732 4 4. 31? 58$ 26,422 4. «, O 4 «. 4,891 333 4 2,028 901 599 4 4 4 r26,46? .. 26,343 (65) (33) p5,600 (HA) -« p2>139 «. p2,369 p239 p533 o p31S p569 p245 «. (MA) (HA) (NA) (MA) (MA) (MA) (HA) 4 r$7QZ 4 (HA) 4 P450 p774 p247 4. (HA) (NA) (HA) _ «. _ 4,361 346 44 2,015 912 600 4 .*. -w 4 4 « 4 p4^366 p365 p2,077 p924 p595 4 «. 4. (HA) (HA) (HA) (NA) (HA) 4 4- NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+)= rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 63 Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961 Duration in months Contraction (trough from previous peak) Business cycle reference dates Trough Cycle Expansion (trough to peak) Trough from previous trough Peak from previous peak Peak December 1854 December 1858 June 1861 December 1867 December 1870 March 1879 June 1857 October 1860 April 1865 June 1869 October 1873 March 1882 May 1885 April 1888 May. 1891 June 1894 June 1897 December 1900 (x) 18 8 32 15 65 30 22 46 15 34 36 (x) (x) 48 30 78 36 99 40 54 50 52 101 March 1887 July 1890 January 1893 December 1895 . June 1899 September 1902 38 13 10 17 18 18 22 27 20 18 24 21 74 35 37 37 36 42 60 40 30 35 42 39 August 1904 June 1908 January 1912 December 1914 March 1919 July 1921 May 1907 January 1910 January 1913 August 1918 January 1920 May 1923 23 13 24 23 7 1§ 33 19 12 44 10 22 44 46 43 35 51 28 56 32 36 67 17 40 July 1924 November 1927 March 1933 June 1938 October 1945 October 1949 October 1926 . August 1929 May 1937 February 1945 November 1948 July 1953 14 13 43 13 8 11 27 21 50 80 37 4-5 36 40 64 63 88 35 41 34 93 93 Z5 56 August 1954 April 1958 February 1961 July 1957 May 1960 . . 13 9 9 35 25 (X) 58 44 34 48 34 (X) Average, all cycles: 26 cycles, 1854-1961 . . 10 cycles, 1919-1961 . . 4 cycles, 1945-1961... 19 15 10 30 35 36 49 50 46 149 54 3 46 Average, peacetime cycles: 22 cycles, 1854-1961 . . 8 cycles, 1919-1961 . . . 3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . . 20 16 10 26 28 32 45 45 42 . 2 *46 48 42 5 6 NOTE: Underscored figgres are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions. X 25 2 cycles, 1857-1960. 9 cycles, 1920-1960. 3 4 4 cycles, 1945-1960. 21 cycles, 1857-1960. 5 7 6 cycles, 1920-1960. 3 cycles, 1945-1960. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 65 Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning inSelected series Feb. 1961 Apr. 1958 Aug. 1954 Oct. 1949 June 1938 Mar. 1933 Nov. 1927 July 1924 July 1921 LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek, production workers, 30. 38 6 10. 29. Dec. '60 ' 61 '61 '61 '61 '60 Apr. Mar. Apr. Jan. Mar. Feb. '58 '58 '58 '58 '58 '58 Apr. May Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. '54 ' 54 '54 '53 '54 '53 Apr. July July June Apr. Jan. '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) '49 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) '49 (NSC) May ' 24 Jan. '21 '49 Apr. '38 Mar. '33 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) '49 '49 Dec. '37 Dec. '32 May ' 27 July '24 Dec. '20 Dec. Dec. Oct. IstQ Apr. Apr. Dec. IstQ '58 '58 '57 '58 Nov. Feb. Sep. 4thQ '53 '54 '53 '53 Apr. June June 2ndQ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) '49 '49 June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21 (NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21 ' 49 Apr. '38 June ' 32 '49 2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 2ndQ '21 Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . Jan . Jan. Index of net business formation New orders durable goods industries ...... Jan. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Mar. New building permits, private housing units. . Dec. 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories 23 Industrial materials prices 19. S^ock prices 1500 common stocks 16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q) 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing 113 Change in consumer installment debt '60 '60 '60 '61 Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 May '49 Dec. '37 Apr. '32 Aug. '27 June '24 Mar. '21 (NA) (NA) (NA) Apr. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Jan . ' 49 Feb. '38 Feb. '32 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments. Feb. '61 May ' 58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21 (NA) (NA) (NA) May ' 61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 May '33 43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) (NSC) (NSC) 4thQ '21 50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q) IstQ '61 IstQ '58 2ndQ ' 54 2ndQ ' 4 9 ^ IstQ '38 3rdQ '32 47. 52. 816 54 Industrial production Personal income Manufacturing and trade sales Sales of retai 1 stores Feb. '61 (NSC) Jan. '61 Apr. '61 Apr. Feb. Mar. Mar. '58 '58 '58 '58 Apr. Apr. Aug. Jan. '54 Oct. '49 May '54 July '49 May '54 Oct. '49 (NSC) May '54 '38 '38 x (NA) '38 July '32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21 Mar. '33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2 n d Q ' 2 1 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NSC) Mar. '22 (NSC) Mar. '33 LAGGING INDICATORS 502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over ( inverted) 61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment (Q) 71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) July '61 Aug. '58 Oct. '54 Nov. '49 (NA) 3rdQ '38 3rdQ '58 IstQ '55 4thQ '49 Mar. '61 Aug. '58 Oct. '54 Dec.^ '49 (NA) Sep. '61 June ' 59 July '50 June '40 2ndQ '61 (NSC) July '58 Sep. '55 Oct. '54 Aug. '49 Dec. '38 4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55 IstQ '50 3rdQ '41 (NA) IstQ '33 (NA) July '33 (NA) (NSC) (NA) 4thQ '27 (NA) (NA) 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21 (NA) (NA) (NSC) (NSC) (NA) (NA) Feb. '28 Nov. '24 (NA) Apr. '22 (NA) Sep. '22 NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles. NA= Not available. 66 NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date. Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS-Continued Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series May 1960 July 1957 July 1953 Nov. 1948 May 1937 Aug. 1929 Oct. 1926 May 1923 Jan. 1920 LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing 30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries, . . 38 Index of net business formation 6. New orders durable goods industries 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . 29. New building permits, private housing units. . 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories 23 Industrial materials prices 19. Stock prices 500 common stocks 16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q) 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing 113 Change in consumer installment debt June July Apr. Apr. Sep. Nov. ' 59 '59 '59 '59 '59 '58 Nov. Nov. Mar. Dec. Nov. Feb. '55 Mar. '53 '55 Feb. '53 '55 Sep. '52 ' 5 5 Jan. '53 '56 May ' 51 '55 Nov. '52 Dec. Nov. July 2ndQ '59 '59 '59 '59 Apr. Dec. July 4thQ '56 '55 '56 '55 June '59 Aug. '59 Oct. '55 Mar. '55 (NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22 (NA) (NSC) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Apr. '46 (NSC) Nov. '25 Jan. '23 Aug. '4-8 Dec. '36 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) June '4.8 Oct. '4.7 Feb. '37 Feb. '28 July '25 Jan. '24 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) July '19 (NA) (NA) '53 July '4-6 '51 Jan. '48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29 '53 June ' 48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29 '53 2ndQ '48 4thQ '36 3rdQ '29 (NA) Nov. '25 (NSC) 3rdQ '26 (NA) (NA) Mar. '23 Apr. '20 Mar. '23 July '19 (NA) 2ndQ '23 Jan. '51 June ' 48 Mar. '37 July '29 Dec. '52 Mar. '48 Mar. '36 May ' 29 Sep. '26 (NA) June '22 Feb. '20 (NA) (NA) Jan. Feb. Jan. 2ndQ ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments* Apr. '60 Mar. '57 June ' 53 Sep. '48 July '37 Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Feb. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Jan. '48 July '37 43. Unemployment rate total (inverted) (NA) (NSC) (NSC) IstQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29 50. GNP in 1958 dollars (0) 47. 52 816. 54. Industrial production Personal income Manufacturing and trade sales Sales of retail stores Jan. '60 Feb. '57 July '53 July '48 May ' 37 July '29 (NSC) Aug. '57 Oct. '53 Oct. '48 June '37 Aug. '29 (NA) (NA) Jan. '60 Feb. '57 July '53 Aug. '48 (NSC) Sep. '37 Sep. '29 Apr . • 60 Aug. '57 Mar. '53 Mar. '27 2ndQ '26 (NA) (NSC) May ' 23 Feb. '20 (NA) IstQ '24 (NA) (NA) (NSC) July '20 LAGGING INDICATORS 502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over ( inverted) 61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment (Q) 71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (0) ' 60 Sep. '57 Oct. '53 Jan. '49 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 2ndQ '60 3rdQ '57 3rdQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20 July '60 Sep. '57 Sep. '53 Feb. '49 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Nov. '48 Dec. '37 (NSC) (NSC) May (NSC) Sep. '57 July '53 Aug. '48 Sep. '37 (NA) (NA) 4thQ '59 4thQ '57 4thQ '53 2ndQ '49 (NSC) Oct. '29 Oct. '26 Oct. '23 Nov. '20 (NA) (NA) Oct. '23 Feb. '21 NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as the peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles. NA = Not available. NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date. 67 Appendix COVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES Part L^Average Percentage Changes Period covered Monthly series Average duration of run (ADR) w Cl 1 c T/C for MCD span MCD Cl 1 C MCD MONTHLY SERIES LEADING INDICATORS *1. Average workweek of production workers, mfg . . • .Jan. '53-Aug. '67-. *3Q. Nonagricultural placements, all industries Jan. '53-Sep. '65 • • Jan, '53-June '67-. 2 Accession rate manufacturing 5. Average weekly initial claims, State Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . . unemployment insurance 3 *38. 13 *6 94 Layoff rate manufacturing • • Index of net business formation New business incorporations New orders durable goods industries Construction contracts value Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. '53-June '67.. '53-Sep. '65.. '53-Sep. '65 . . '53-Sep. '65 . . '53-Sep. '65.. .46 1.83 4.63 .41 1.34 4.38 .19 1.09 1.43 2.18 1.23 3.05 3 2 4 .73 .63 .79 2.19 2.11 2.19 1.48 1.52 1.49 9.72 7.24 12.36 4.02 3.97 3.70 4.95 4.38 2.17 2.02 2 .95 1.69 1.42 12.67 3.97 9.25 .79 2.49 3.76 6.64 8.41 .60 2.18 3.33 6.38 3.26 .53 1.00 1.51 1.55 2.58 1.15 2.18 2.20 4.12 3 2 3 3 5 .85 .66 .78 .66 .87 2.16 2.71 1.92 1.81 1.55 1.48 1.63 1.63 1.58 1.52 7.86 6.61 7.24 8.44 8.00 4.75 4.08 3.19 4.41 3.15 Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. *10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment 24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries . .Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. 9. Construction contracts, commercial Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. and industrial, floor space May '59-June '67 . . 7 Private nonfarm housing starts 4.69 4.18 4.39 3.81 1.43 1.52 3.08 2.51 4 3 .84 .88 1.88 1.83 1.71 1.60 9.50 10.86 3.39 3.41 9.30 7.30 9.17 7.10 .97 1.18 9.41 6.04 6 6 t1) t1) 1.60 1.60 1.48 1.55 12.67 16.83 3.00 2.67 Jan. '53-June '66. . 3.70 3.31 1.30 2.54 3 .82 1.87 1.55 12.38 3.06 Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. 6.46 5.24 2.84 1.85 3 .76 2.37 1.62 7.60 3.57 Jan. '53-Sep, '65 . . 5.27 4.77 1.98 2.41 3 .77 1.88 1.63 8.94 3.49 Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. 7.47 5.79 4.00 1.45 2 .95 3.17 1.85 8.94 3.77 Jan. '53-Sep. '65., Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. Jan. '53-Oct. '66.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. Jan. '53-Dec. '65. . 1.31 2.49 .62 18.74 2.63 1.04 1.68 .51 18.24 2.42 .73 1.64 .27 1.70 .95 1.41 1.02 1.93 10.72 2.55 2 2 3 6 3 .99 .57 .92 t1) .80 2.49 2.37 2.62 1.49 1.85 2.11 1.58 1.70 1.39 1.57 11.69 9.50 5.69 8.94 8.44 3.87 3.97 4.18 2.23 4.17 3.12 3.00 .44 .31 .35 1.77 1.87 .31 .14 .29 2.34 2.30 .31 .27 .21 .76 .81 1.00 .52 1.42 1 1 2 1 2 .76 .81 .51 .52 .75 3.27 3.10 2.98 5.00 2.09 1.70 1.39 1.52 1.61 1.55 9.82 8.94 12.85 19.44 27.83 3.27 3.10 5.03 5.00 4.05 *29 New building permits private housing 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments 60 days or longer 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting *23. Industrial materials prices *19 Stock prices 500 common stocks *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. 14. Liabilities of business failures 39 Delinquency rate installment credit loans ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 301 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled 46. Help-wanted advertising 511 Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments *41 Employees in nonagricultural establishments 42 Total nonagricultural employment Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. *43 Unemployment rate total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate State programs 40 Unemployment rate married males. Jan. '53-Dec. '66. . 3.94 3.05 2.16 1.41 2 .72 2.53 1.44 7.95 4.05 Jan. '53-Sep. '65. . Nov. '54-Dec. '66 . 4.19 5.07 2.19 4.38 3.29 2.55 .67 1.72 1 2 .67 .92 4.90 3.37 1.75 1.48 7.60 8.53 4.90 4.11 Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. Jan. '53-June '66.. 1.02 .53 .54 .27 .76 .46 .71 .58 1 1 .71 .58 3.62 4.88 1.67 1.56 11.69 23.00 3.62 4.88 Jan. ^53-June '66. . Jan. '53-Dec. '66. . .84 1.02 .50 .74 .64 .62 .78 1.19 1 2 .78 .62 2.93 2.35 1.56 1.50 14.64 8.79 2.93 3.69 *54. Sales of retail stores 96 Unfilled orders durable goods industries 55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities 58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. .97 1.45 .83 .54 .44 1.28 1.88 .42 3 1 .70 .42 2.08 5.63 1.57 1.57 15.20 10.86 4.84 5.63 .17 .20 .11 .16 .13 .13 .84 1.25 1 2 .84 .77 3.88 3.27 1.64 1.78 9.82 10.44 3.88 4.61 114. 116. 115. 117. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 1.12 1.60 1.41 1.90 2 3 2 3 .73 .74 .98 .87 2.53 2.54 2.76 2.58 1.77 1.85 2.00 1 .88 6.61 12.71 8.00 8.00 3.68 3.78 3.68 3.66 *47. Industrial production *52 Personal income 53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction *816 Manufacturing and trade sales Treasury bill rate Corporate bond yields. Treasury bond yields Municioal bond vields '53-Dec. '66.. '53-Sep. '65.. '53-Dec. '66.. '53-Aug. '67. . '53-Dec. '66. . Jan. '53-Dec. '66.. Jan. '53-Dec. '66. . '53-Sep. '65.. '59-June '66. . '53-Sep. '65.. '53-Seo. '65. . 6.70 1.58 1.65 2.46 See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1. 68 5.00 1.31 1.31 2.08 4.46 .82 .93 1.10 Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Part l.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued Period covered Monthly series Average duration of run (ADR) T/C ci T C I/C for MCD span MCD CI 1 C MCD MONTHLY SERIES-Continued LAGGING INDICATORS *502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over Jan. 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Jan. *71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories . . Jan. . 65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories of finished goods Jan. *62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 66. Consumer installment debt *72. Commercial and indus. loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks 118. Mortgage yields, residential '53-Dec. '66.. 6.52 5.25 '53-Dec. '66.. '53-Dec. '66.. 1.63 .54 1.32 '53-Dec. '66.. 4.16 .18 .89 .50 .62 .28 .55 Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . . .51 .84 .37 .11 .30 .82 Jan. '53-Dec. '66.. Jul. '61-Sep. '65 . . .95 .11 .46 .07 .83 .11 .14 .94 1.26 2 .64 4.07 1.55 7.95 5.72 1.49 .36 2 1 .75 .36 1.96 7.26 1.50 1.58 18.56 23.86 3.32 7.26 .52 1 .52 3.63 1.42 15.18 3.63 2 1 .72 .14 2.54 3.81 11.69 1.57 1.63 7.86 .14 21.71 11.69 .55 .65 1 1 .55 .65 10.00 1.50 1.92 .83 1 4 .83 .91 3.98 1.78 1.62 1.66 9.17 6 4 4 6 6 6 6 (M .85 .86 C1) C1) C1) C1) 1.43 1.63 1.83 1.40 1.43 1.57 1.44 1.35 1.55 1.62 1.42 1.43 1.48 1.38 10.07 1.82 1.80 2 3 .93 .71 2.85 2.09 1.50 1.58 10.69 4.72 4.45 .95 1 .95 2.71 1.54 9.00 2.71 .81 1 .81 2.95 1.50 8.55 2.95 1.26 4.07 23.86 4.07 5.56 10.00 9.82 3.98 4.06 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 81. Consumer prices 86. Exports excluding military aid 861, Export orders, durables except motor vehicles and parts 862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery 87. General imports 91. Defense Department obligations, total 90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement 99. New orders, defense products industries 92. Military contract awards in U.S Jan. '53-Dec. '66.. Jan. '53-Oct. '64 . . .19 .12 3.81 3.56 Oct. '62-Dec.'66.. 12.45 Jan. '57-Dec. '66.. 6.32 Jan. '53-Oct. '64.. 3.04 Jul. '53-Sep. '65 .. 13.86 Jan. '56-Sep. '65 . . 27.42 Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. 22.53 July'55-Apr. '67.. 18.06 12.28 6.10 2.87 13.59 27.34 22.53 17.61 1.57 1.84 .80 1.26 2.16 1.92 1.92 3.77 7'. 80 3.31 3.59 10.77 12.68 11.72 14.10 16.67 9.92 10.85 6.64 8.92 9.50 2.37 3.05 3.54 2.07 2.02 2.53 2.43 U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION 851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods. . 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods 855. Ratio, nonagri cultural job openings unfilled to number of persons unemployed 856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing to consumer prices Jan. '53-Apr. '67.. Jan. '53-Apr. '67.. 2.04 Jan. '53-Apr. '67.. .95 Jan. '53-Apr. '67.. 5.78 3.41 Jan. '53-Apr. '67.. .35 .29 .19 1.52 2 .78 2.34 1.50 13.15 3.78 .68 .57 .42 .49 .62 .66 1.19 2.41 1.55 1.45 1.48 1.73 1.45 10.63 10.13 25.33 16.89 19.00 13.82 16.89 4.22 5.17 5.81 .72 .53 .86 .87 .84 .64 .47 .67 2.30 2.58 3.62 2.24 2.02 1.01 1.96 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 .18 .27 .39 .22 .39 .31 1.71 1.81 1.14 1.64 1.91 1.14 2 3 2 3 3 2 .95 .73 .59 .74 .68 .61 10.81 15.73 12.29 19.22 1.99 1.68 1.54 2.01 1.66 1.80 2 2 3 1 2 ? .87 .91 .65 .86 .64 3.20 2.58 2.47 3.53 3.26 1.77 1.73 1.66 1.84 1.68 9 i #/ .99 .86 1.76 .62 .47 .98 .66 4.21 9.00 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS 123. 122. 121. 126. 125. 128. 127. Canada, industrial production July'53-Mar. '67.. United Kingdom, industrial production Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. OECD European countries, industrial production. . . Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. France, industrial production Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. West Germany, industrial production Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. Japan, industrial production Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. Italy, industrial production. Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. 133. 132. 136. 135. 138. 137. Canada consumer prices United Kingdom, consumer prices France, consumer prices West Germany, consumer prices Japan consumer prices Italy, consumer prices Jan. Jan. Jan, Jan. Jan, Jan. '53-June'67.. '53-June '67. . '53-June '67. . '53-June '67- . '53-June '67. . '53-June '67. . 143. 142 146 145 148 147. Canada, stock prices United Kingdom stock prices France stock prices West Germany stock prices Japan stock prices Ital v. stock orices Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. '53-June '67 '53-June '67 '53-June '67 '53- June '67 '53-June '67 'W-Jimfi 'fi7 .89 1.08 .86 1.45 1.51 1.73 1.50 .25 .46 .52 .32 .81 .34 1.02 .77 1.38 1.33 1.23 1.40 .31 .50 .45 .37 .74 .35 1.22 2.78 3.14 3.95 3.30 3.60 2.15 2.50 3.30 2.00 2.43 1.61 1.67 1.88 2.33 2.28 1.34 1.49 1.75 3 #n ? m 1 QO i ^£ .86 1.07 •7T 2.67 2.71 3.38 2.49 9.11 6.41 6.92 8.24 3.09 // 1.62 1.37 1.69 8.65 6.00 5.00 5.21 4.84 9.00 7.48 12.36 10.81 12.21 8.24 24.57 10.81 7.86 7.52 7.52 7.21 3.91 3.66 4.17 3.53 4.53 Q 1 1 *> 7.12 m See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1. 69 Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Part l.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued Period covered Quarterly series Cl c 1 I/C I/C for QCD span QCD Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C QCD QUARTERLY SERIES LEADING INDICATORS 11. New capital appropriations manufacturing *16 Corporate profits after taxes. . . 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate all industries 18. Profits per dollar of sales manufacturing. ..... 110. Total private borrowing IQ'53-IVQ'66 .... IQ'53-IQ'66 9.66 5.56 4.78 2.95 7.18 4.26 .67 .69 1 1 .67 .69 3.06 3.06 1.28 1.27 3.44 5.20 3.06 3.06 IQ'53-IQ'66 IQ'53-IVQ'66.... IQ'53-IVQ'66.... 4.18 5.71 10.97 2.69 3.60 6.31 2.99 3.70 7.99 .90 .97 .79 1 1 1 .90 .97 .79 2.36 2.50 2.20 1.30 1.31 1.22 6.50 4.23 3.67 2.36 2.50 2.20 IQ'53-IQ'66 |Q'53-IQ'66 IQ'53-IQ'66 IQ'53-IVQ'66.... 1.54 1.28 1.37 5.58 .34 .35 .30 .85 1.45 1.14 1.32 5.45 .24 .31 .23 .16 1 1 1 1 5.78 .24 .31 3.47 .23 10.40 4.23 .16 1.33 1.33 1.21 1.34 7.43 5.78 10.40 6.11 5.78 3.47 10.40 4.23 IQ'53-IIIQ'65.... 3.21 .77 2.99 .26 l .26 5.56 1.47 5.56 5.56 IQ'53-IVQ'66.... IQ'53-II1Q'65. ... .85 1.99 .40 .96 .69 1.80 .57 .54 1 1 .57 .54 2.89 2.38 1.28 1.47 4.23 3.33 2.89 2.38 IQ'53-IIQ'67. IQ'53-IIQ'67. IQ'53-IVQ'66.... 3.06 3.58 2.34 1.76 2.69 .87 2.41 2.06 1.89 .73 1.31 .46 l 2 1 .73 .50 .46 2.28 1.78 2.62 1.30 1.24 1.34 3.35 4.75 4.58 2.28 2.80 2.62 IQ'53-IIQ'67. 2.21 .87 1.79 .49 1 .49 2.85 1.42 3.80 2.85 IQ'53-IVQ'66 IQ'56-IQ'67 8.54 3.64 6.98 2.28 1.57 .97 2 1 .57 .97 1.57 2.10 1.28 1.33 3.67 4.40 3.18 2.10 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 49 *50. 57 97. GNP in current dollars GNP in 1958 dollars Final sales . Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing. LAGGING INDICATORS *61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product (1958 dol ) nonfinancial corporations . .» . *67 Bank rates on short-term business loans OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 83 Federal cash receipts from public 82 Federal cash payments to public 101. National defense purchases, current dollars .... U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION 850 Ratio output to capacity mfg 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income 857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing ^Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. 4.45 2.36 1 Not shown for series when MOD is BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1 The following are brief definitions of the measures shown in part 1 of this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957). "Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series. "7* is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 70 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6". Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1—Continued in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. "T/C~" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad justed series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", nq_I/C ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans. "Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally ad justed series. A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CI is 1.69 for the series on average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.42 for I and 12.67 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 3.97 for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 2-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (2 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR from 1.42 for CI to 3.97 for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not. Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Part 2.-Average Unit Changes Monthly series Period covered Unit of measure CI C 1 I/C MCD Average duration of run (ADR) I/C for MCD span CI .98 1.51 1.43 9.06 2.65 1.67 1.69 1.50 1.62 6.08 7.60 3.00 3.10 1 C MCD MONTHLY SERIES LEADING INDICATORS *31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials, supplies 25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods industries. 98. Change in money supply and time deposits .... 85. Change in total money supply 33. Change in mortgage debt *113. Change in consumer installment debt 112. Change in business loans Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate, bil. dol.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . . . do. . . Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Bil. dol. . Jan. '53-June'67 Ann. rate, percent . Jan. '53-June'67 . . .do.. . Jan. '55-Dec. '66 Ann. rate, bil. dol.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . . . do. . . Aug. '59-Dec.'66 . . .do. . . 3 . 68 3.58 1.51 .48 1.44 2.49 2.88 1.31 .87 2.22 .74 4 87 1 I) . 29 4.97 .13 3.51 4 2.48 2 . 90 .34 .36 7.37 7 . 94 ) 6 C1) 1.45 1.42 1.37 10.81 1.40 10.81 2.85 2.85 1.22 .79 2.10 .34 .31 .46 3.58 2.56 4.56 3 6 .93 .92 .90 1.52 1.65 1.60 1.39 11.92 1.49 10.13 1 . 66 8.00 2.69 3.13 4.15 Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol. . 98.01 78.89 46.86 1.68 3 .68 2.03 1.60 10.13 3.49 Jan. '53-June'62 . . . do. . . 58.44 55.87 17.28 3.23 3 .97 1.82 1.61 2.64 .98 ( X ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 93 Free reserves OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 88. Merchandise trade balance 9.42 See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 2. 71 Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Contmued Part 2,-Average Unit Changes-Continued -r 777 I/C Quarterly series Period covered Unit of measure Cl c 1 I/C QCD for QCD span Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C QCD QUARTERLY SERIES LEADING INDICATORS 21. Change in business inventories, all industries |Q'53-IQ'66 Ann. rate bil. dol... 2.28 1.43 1.37 . 1.04 2 48 1.73 1 .37 4.00 2.83 89. U.S. balance of payments: a. Liquidity balance basis b. Official settlements basis IQ'53-IIIQ'65.... Mil. dol.... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04 ...do.... 492.17 302.66 286.13 1.06 1Q'60-IQ'66 2 2 .45 .55 1.67 2.00 1.25 1.41 3.13 2 . 67 2 . 72 2.56 95 Fed balance nat'l income and product acct. IO'53-IQ'66 1 2 . 76 2 . 17 1.37 .62 1.97 1.39 3.71 2.85 2 . 17 2.33 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 84. Federal cash surplus or deficit Ann rate bil. dol... 2.50 IQ'53-IIQ'S7..... ...do.... 4.24 *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. 1.37 3.02 1.81 2. 24 .76 1.35 1 Not shown for series when MCD is "6" or more. BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2 The measures in part 2 are computed by an additive method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative data. Thus, "Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself. 72 "C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "r is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series. All other measures shown in part 2 have the same meaning as in part 1. Appendix D.—CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (NOVEMBER 1966 TO DECEMBER 1967) 1966 19 57 Series Nov. 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance 13. New business incorporations1 Dec. Jan. Mar. Feb. 92.7 105.3 139.0 146.3 109.1 86.3 99.3 112.0 95.2 117.2 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 81.2 91.. 5 79.2 98.5 106.1 104.4 106.2 95.9 85.7 99.7 76.9 88.1 86.8 105.4 139.0 96.2 86.3 99 3 Apr. May 14 Liabilities of business failures 18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing2. 91.3 99.8 83.2 91.2 102.0 109.6 97.4 30 Nonagricultural placements all industries1 • 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies 3 96 7 80 2 82 3 -96. 309. -336. -390. 88 7 89 8 101 9 106 6 107 7 114 4 107 8 101 6 100 3 37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans 4 72 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement 109.4 100 0 101 7 ' 88 2 100 2 91 Defense Department obligations total 92 Military contract awards in U.S 5 112 Change in business loans 301 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled on Q Q7 9 79 8 91 6 QQ Q no n 856 Ratio average earnings to consumer prices 857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing 2 100.1 101.4 862 Index of export orders nonelectrical machinery D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 6 no £ -13. 9. 25. 91.9 110.8 100 9 96.7 153. 135 92.1 151 44 11 97 8 96 1 87 0 98.8 99 3 75 7 99.9 100 7 99 0 95 3 200 1 72.8 91 9 93 9 on n Qn n 1 L.^ 7 i nQ i 90 1 184 2 94 4 Q7 A 1 no 82 6 00 0 QQ f. &A n QQ ^ 91 6 1m c -15 i n^ 9 0 99 3 Dec. 90 6 99.7 83 2 QC on o C -98 315 88 4 89 8 109.4 97.3 QO i nn i 96 4 83 3 100 7 113 4 118 4 113 8 99 8 101 3 99 9 67 8 101 1 105 0 i nn i 99 g ) 90 7 311 5 m QQ 9 QQ Q 92 9 88 2 100 2 % 9 94 3 '7 Q Q7 9 79 7 91 8 OQ 99 2 99 4 99 6 99 9 i nn # 101 8 111 9 1 1 n 9 i n^ z. QO Q on -i i nn A i nn "3 i nn 9i nn 9 99 6 QC Q 1 nQ n 1 pn o 1 n ) 100.5 100.5 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.8 QQ 1 120.0 113.1 92 6 100 4 113 1 110.3 109.5 i nn QI nn ^ on i 78 4 93.7 100.4 106.1 Nov. 1 r\j 100.3 100.0 98.6 Q 1 no i 1 nn / + 18 o i nn & 99.6 98 9 99.3 99 9 Q/ QJ QQ ) -10 J (L 99 7 100 1 100 5 101.4 QP, n QO Q QQ 1 +6 1 NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. 1 Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained "by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to rounding. 2 Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter. 3 These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to "be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method IE seasonal adjustment program. ^Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.). 5 Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed. 6 l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index. 73 Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961 Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough Contractions: Reference peak to reference trough Jan. May Oct. Aug. May 1920-July 1921 1923-July 1924 1926-Nov. 1927 1929-Mar. 1933 1937-June 1938 Feb Nov July July May 1945-Oct 1948-Oct 1953-Aug 1957- Apr 1960-Feb 19454 1949 1954 5 1958 1961 Median:6 All contractions Excluding postwar contractions . 4 contractions since 1948 *41. Employees in nonagri. establishments *47. Index of industrial production *50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q) 1 (NA) (NA (NA) -31.6 -10.4 -31.6 -18.0 -5.9 -51.8 -31.7 (NA) -0.3 + 2.3 -28.0 -8.9 -7.9 -5.1 -3.4 -4.0 -1.8 -31.4 -8.5 -9.1 -14.1 -5.7 (NA) -1.6 -2.2 -3.4 -1.4 -5.7 -6.5 -3.7 -16.0 -16.0 -8.8 -1.9 -2.1 -1.9 49. GNP in current dollars (Q)1 *52. Per- *816. Manufacturing and trade sales sonal income *43. Unemployment rate, total *54. Sales of retail stores -49.6 -11.9 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) -43.5 -17.3 +7.9 +2.3 2 +2.2 + 25.4 +8.8 -10.9 -3.4 -0.8 -1.8 -0.2 -4.0 -4.7 0.0 +0.2 +0.9 (NA) -7.5 -7.2 -6.8 -3.1 +8.6 -0.5 -0.5 -2.4 -2.7 + 2.2 +4.1 + 3.4 +3.2 +1.8 -2.8 -2.8 -1.3 -2.0 -2.4 + 0.1 -7.0 -5.8 -7.0 -2.2 -2.6 -1.4 + 3.3 +3.6 + 3.3 -4.3 -1.9 0.0 *41. Employees in nonagri. establishments *47. Index of industrial production July July Nov Mar June 1921-May 1924-Oct 1927-Aug 1933-May 1938-Feb. 1923 1926 1929 . 1937 19454 (NA) (NA) (NA) +40.2 +45.9 +64.2 +30.4 + 24.1 +119.9 +183.3 Oct Oct Aug Apr 1945-Nov 1949-July 1954-July 1958-May 1948 19535 1957 1960 +17.2 +17.8 +8.9 +6.9 Median:6 All expansions Excluding wartime expansions . . 4 exnansions since 194B +17.5 +13.0 +1 3.0 *50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q) 1 49. GNP in current dollars *52. Per- *816. Manufacturing and trade sales sonal income (Q) 1 (NA) +12.4 +12.6 +42.1 (NA) + 25.1 +14.7 +13.3 +73.9 +169.6 +29.6 +13.2 + 12.2 +76.3 +157.3 + 21.9 +50.0 +19.7 + 25.2 +3.3 + 28.8 +11.8 +11.4 +34.9 +44.1 + 22.4 +15.1 +28.5 +41.4 + 22.1 + 13.3 +35.2 + 26.6 + P3.6 +12.3 +12.1 +11.6 + 27.5 + 20.9 + ?£ 6 +26.7 +21.3 -4-9^ ? (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Rate at peak 2 -21.9 0.0 +0.9 -50.8 -10.9 -19.7 -2.3 +0.4 Rate at trough 2 2 4.0 ^3.2 2 1.9 2 3 0.0 11.2 11.9 *5.5 2 4.1 25.4 20.0 1.1 3.8 2.6 4.2 5.1 3.3 7.9 6.0 7.4 6.9 3.5 3.9 4.0 7.2 7.6 7.2 3 *43. Unemployment rate, total Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak Expansions: Reference trough to reference peak Change in rate, peak to trough *54. Sales of retail stores Change in rate, trough to peak 2 Rate at trough 2 +15.7 + 9.9 +3.6 +69.2 +105.4 -8.7 -3.6 2 -0.9 -14.2 -18.9 (NA) +50.0 + 22.6 + 16.2 +63.8 + 25.6 + 20.3 +11.9 +0.3 -5.3 -1.8 -2.3 3.3 7.9 6.0 7.4 +29.6 +19.4 (NA) + 20.5 +16.0 + 9? n -3.7 -2.6 o c\ 7.1 6.3 f-, n 2 Rate at peak 11.9 2 5.5 2 4.1 25.4 20.0 2 3.2 1.9 3.2 11.2 1.1 2 2 3 3 3.6 2.6 4.2 5.1 3.3 3.7 1Q NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)of "1" or "2" (series41,43,47,52,and816), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C. *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list"of 25 indicators. NA=Not available. 1 The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p.670. 2 Based on average for the calendar year. 3 Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used. ^World War II contraction or expansion period. 5 Korean War contraction or expansion period. 6 The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 74 Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES Historical data and latest revisions are presented for selected series. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are not seasonally adjusted. Year Feb. Jan. Mar. May Apr. 32. June ... ... ... 22 73 30 38 53 *60 31 38 60 49 38 32 58 38 41 17 50 64 38 34 34 36 88 34 50 30 40 94 38 47 30 41 96 50 46 25 47 88 50 46 22 53 87 34 44 20 52 84 31 40 20 50 70 39 30 38 62 65 40 29 38 62 70 56 38 44 60 72 52 34 49 62 72 47 32 57 64 72 44 36 58 64 66 46 29 58 56 56 36 25 52 50 28 47 48 60 60 32 48 46 58 63 34 48 42 54 . 55 36 49 44 42 59 40 52 44 48 65 41 55 48 52 74 39 55 48 48 72 38 51 48 48 70 38 53 48 46 66 72 82 70 75 66 69 62 70 64 73 62 72 60 70 66 64 72 57 2.30 2.00 2.10 2.60 2.63 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2.00 2.10 2.10 2.64 2.65 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... *78 34 26 10 82 25 36 14 86 1950 .... 1951 1952 1953 1954 .... 54 84 28 37 21 62 85 22 37 24 60 74 18 40 27 1955 1956 .... 1957 1958 1959 .... 54 48 33 28 58 60 46 28 28 62 1960 .... 1961 1962 .... 1963 .... 1964 .... 44 38 56 50 55 1965 .... 1966 .... 68 74 69 20 31 12 81 24 30 12 60 58 19 38 30 66 46 23 36 35 66 49 25 32 62 71 50 28 34 62 30 40 56 52 54 27 40 55 54 60 72 85 66 86 67. ... 2.30 2.10 2.10 2.40 2.70 .. . ... 2.60 3.02 3.45 3.54 3.72 ... 3.54 3.93 4.38 4.49 4.51 ... 4.97 5.55 22 36 Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Percent)1 ... ... ... 2.30 2.00 2.10 2.47 2.74 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2.68 3.07 3.51 3.73 3.60 ... 2.63 3.06 3.49 3.74 3.56 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 3.77 4.35 4.83 4.21 5.27 5.35 4.97 5.01 5.01 4.99 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 4.97 4.99 4.99 5.01 4.98 4.99 5.82 ... ... 5.00 6.30 . 5.34 4.97 4.98 5.00 4.99 ... Dec. Nov. ... 82 42 34 12 ... Oct. 71 25 36 38 91 37 35 16 !! ! Sept. Aug. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (Percent) 1945 1946 .... 1947 .... 1948 .... 1949 .... 1* \ July ... ... ... ... 3.56 4.14 4.40 4.17 4.87 2.84 3.27 3.51 3.76 3.55 3.93 4.38 4.85 4.50 5.36 ... ... 4.99 4.96 5.02 5.00 5.00 ... ... ... ... 5.27 6.31 ... ... .. . end-of-quarter data for 19 cities are linked to the quarterly data for 35 cities presented in table 2. January 75 Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued Historical data and latest revisions are presented for selected series. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are not seasonally adjusted. Year Jan. Feb. Apr. Mar. May 93. July June Sept. Aug. Oct. Nov. Dec. Free reserves (Millions of dollars) 1945 .... 1946 .... 1947 .... 1948 1949 .... +996 +1,126 +744 +938 +669 +720 +807 +602 +560 +600 +766 +505 +698 +552 +546 +571 +631 +707 +700 +608 +373 +806 +677 +599 +601 +749 +816 +650 +752 +658 +1,056 +807 +689 +722 +910 +701 +765 +673 +750 +861 +675 +736 +798 +756 +847 +699 +756 +783 +706 +816 +575 +643 +576 +655 +677 +1,157 +743 +762 +663 +685 1950 .... 1951 .... 1952 .... 1953 .... 1954 .... +900 +613 +723 -640 +836 +614 +298 +330 -672 +339 +655 +471 +578 -614 +503 +593 +672 +283 -631 +626 +624 +152 +623 +562 -468 +366 +770 +483 +412 -383 +669 +383 -353 +561 +700 +664 +130 +365 +711 -7 +250 +708 +775 +821 -400 +390 +638 +586 +389 -875 +198 +650 +885 +169 -870 +252 +457 1955 .... 1956 .... 1957 .... 1958 .... 1959 .... +369 -255 +116 +122 +270 -267 -126 +324 +168 -195 -508 +484 -513 -189 -339 -471 +382 -536 -359 -195 -344 -492 -154 -293 -245 -139 -383 +547 -556 -286 -214 -466 +95 +96 +20 -41 -48 +212 -504 -444 +547 -319 +92 -59 +122 -409 -316 +495 -140 -493 -459 -433 -424 1960 .... 1961 1962 .... 1963 .... 1964 .... -375 +696 +555 +375 +175 -365 +517 +434 +301 -219 +486 +382 +269 +414 +547 +375 +480 +442 +419 +614 +517 +473 +94 +89 +99 +669 +419 +268 +209 +168 1965 .... 1966 .... +106 +36 -75 -44 -107 -246 • +95 -533 -504 +492 -259 +65 +725 +95 -36 -133 -194 +551 +441 +313 +167 -33 +37 +453 +440 +247 +120 +530 +440 +161 +135 +247 +537 +439 +133 +82 +549 +391 +138 +120 +83 +91 +89 +106 +33 -34 -105 -268 -180 -352 -182 -352 -174 -362 -134 -390 -144 -368 -146 -431 -83 -2 -222 -165 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (Percent) 1945. 1946. 1947. 1948. 1949. 2.44 2.21 2.21 2.45 2.42 2.38 2.12 2.21 2.45 2.39 2.40 2.09 2.19 2.44 2.38 2.39 2.08 2.19 2.44 2.38 2.39 2.19 2.19 2.42 2.38 2.35 2.16 2.22 2.41 2.38 2.34 2.18 2.25 2.44 2.27 2.36 2.23 2.24 2.45 2.24 2.37 2.28 2.24 2.45 2.22 2.35 2.26 2.27 2.45 2.22 2.33 2.25 2.36 2.44 2.20 2.33 2.24 2.39 2.44 2.19 1950. 1951. 1952. 1953. 1954. 2.20 2.39 2.74 2.80 2.69 2.24 2.40 2.71 2.83 2.62 2.27 2.47 2.70 2.89 2.53 2.30 2.56 2.64 2.97 2.48 2.31 2.63 2.57 3.11 2.54 2.33 2.65 2.61 3.13 2.55 2.34 2.63 2.61 3.02 2.47 2.33 2.57 2.70 3.02 2.48 2.36 2.56 2.71 2.98 2.52 2.38 2.61 2.74 2.83 2.54 2.38 2.66 2.71 2.86 2.57 2.39 2.70 2.75 2.79 2.59 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 2.68 2.88 3-34 3.24 3.91 2.78 2.85 3.22 3.28 3.92 2.78 2.93 3.26 3.25 3-92 2.82 3.07 3.32 3.12 4.01 2.81 2.97 3-40 3.14 4.08 2.82 2.93 3.58 3.20 4.09 2.91 3.00 3.60 3.36 4.11 2.95 3.17 3.63 3.60 4.10 2.92 3.21 3.66 3.75 4.26 2.87 3.20 3.73 3.76 4.11 2.89 3.30 3.57 3.70 4.12 2.91 3.40 3.30 3.80 4.27 1960. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 4.37 3-89 4.08 3.89 4.15 4.22 3.81 4.09 3.92 4.14 4.08 3-78 4.01 3-93 4.18 4.18 3.80 3.89 3.97 4.20 4.16 3.73 3.88 3.97 4.16 3.98 3.88 3.90 4.00 4.13 3.86 3-90 4.02 4.01 4.13 3.79 4.00 3.98 3.99 4.14 3.84 4.02 3.94 4.04 4.16 3-91 3.98 3.89 4.07 4.16 3.93 3.98 3.87 4.11 4.12 3.88 4.06 3.87 4.14 4.14 1965. 1966. 4.14 4.43 4.16 4.61 4.15 4.63 4..15 4.55 4.14 4.57 4.:u 4.15 4.75 4.19 4.80 4.25 4.79 4.28 4.70 4.34 4.74 4.43 4.65 4.63 (January 1968) 76 Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued Historical data and latest revisions are presented for selected series. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are not seasonally adjusted. Year Jan. Feb. May Apr. Mar. 117. Aug. July June Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (percent) 1945 .... 1946 . . . . 1947 .... 1948 .... 1949 . . . . .. . . •. 2.36 2.16 2.47 2.20 2.45 2.18 2.37 2.14 2.31 2.14 2.24 2.20 2.27 2.16 2.37 2.12 2.41 2.14 2.42 2.16 2.38 2.12 2.26 2.09 1950 . . . . 1951 .... 1952 .... 1953 .... 1954 .... 2.06 1.61 2.09 2.43 2.50 2.03 1.58 2.07 2.55 2.42 2.01 1.74 2.08 2.65 2.40 2.03 1.94 2.04 2.65 2.47 2.00 2.00 2.06 2.78 2.50 1.99 2.19 2.13 2.99 2.48 2.01 2.15 2.15 2.98 2.32 1.83 2.02 2.24 2.90 2.26 1.84 2.01 2.30 2.90 2.31 1.79 2.06 2.38 2.75 2.34 1.74 2.05 2.38 2.62 2..32 1.72 2.09 /.'.38 2.60 2.36 1955 .... 1956 .... 1957 1958 .... 1959 . . . . 2.40 2.50 3.18 2.91 3.42 2.44 2.44 3.00 3.02 3.36 2.44 2.57 3.10 3.06 3.30 2.41 2.70 3.13 2.96 3.39 2.38 2.68 3.27 2.92 3.58 2.41 2.54 3.41 2.97 3.72 2.54 2.65 3.40 3.09 3.71 2.60 2.80 3.54 3.36 3-58 2.58 2.94 3.54 3.54 3.78 2.51 2.95 3.42 5.45 3.62 2.46 3.16 3.37 3.32 3.55 2.57 3.22 3.04 3.34 3.68 1960 .... 1961 .... 1962 .... 1963 1964 . . . . 3.72 3.40 3.34 5.10 3.22 3.60 3.31 3.21 3.15 3.14 3.56 3.45 3.14 3-05 3.28 3.56 3.50 3.06 3.10 3.28 3.60 3.43 3.11 3.11 3.20 3.55 3.52 3.26 3.21 3.20 3.50 3.52 3.28 3.22 3.18 3.34 3.52 3.23 3.13 3.19 3.42 3.53 3.11 3.20 3.23 3.53 3.42 3.02 3.20 3.25 3.40 3.41 3.04 3.30 3.18 3.40 3.47 3.07 3.27 3.13 1965 .... 1966 .... 3.06 3.52 3.09 3.64 3.18 3.72 3.15 3.56 3.17 3.65 3.24 3.77 3.27 3.95 3.24 4.12 3.35 4.12 3.40 3.94 3.46 3.86 3.54 3.86 .. . .. . 118. ... «.. Secondary market yields on .PHA mortgages ... .• . 1945 .... 1946 1947 .... 1948 1949 .... 4.35 4.35 4.35 1950 .... 1951 1952 .... 1953 .... 1954 4.31 4.08 4.26 4.34 4.75 4.31 4.08 4.27 4.34 4.69 4.30 4.12 4.29 4.34 4.64 1955 .... 1956 1957 .... 1958 .... 1959 4.56 4.73 5.58 5.60 4.56 4.70 5.36 5.56 5.58 1960 .... 1961 .... 1962 1963 .... 1964 .... 6.24 6.00 5.69 5.52 5.45 1965 1966 .... 5.45 5.70 ... ... WA *.. (Percent) .. . ... 4.34 4.35 4.34 4.34 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.32 WA WA 4.19 4.29 4.27 4.29 4.08 4.31 4.30 4.74 4.56 4.08 4.31 4.30 4.82 4.56 4.03 4.30 4.30 4.86 4.56 4.08 4.27 4.31 4.82 4.56 4.08 4.27 4.32 4.81 4.56 4.08 4.26 4.32 4.78 4.56 4.75 4.73 4.35 WA WA 4.62 4.59 4.09 4.29 4.30 4.67 4.57 4.59 4.68 5.35 5.51 5.57 4.60 4.71 5.35 5.43 5.58 4.63 4.78 5.32 5.39 5.64 4.63 4.81 5.35 5.37 5.71 4.64 4.81 5.38 5.35 5.75 4.67 4.87 4.70 4.92 WA WA 5.37 5.50 4.73 4.95 5. 63 5.57 5.80 WA WA 5.63 5.60 6.23 6.23 5.89 5.68 5.48 5.45 6.22 5.82 5.65 5.47 5.45 6.21 5.77 5.64 5.46 5.45 6.21 6.19 WA WA 5.59 5.45 5.45 6.18 5.68 5.58 5.45 5.46 6.14 5.68 5.57 5.45 5.46 6.11 5.695.56 5.45 5.46 6.09 5-70 5.55 5.45 5.45 6.05 5.70 5.54 5.45 5.45 6.04 5.69 5.53 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 6.00 5.45 5.45 6.32 5.44 6.45 5.44 6.51 5.45 6.58 5.46 6.63 5.49 5.51 6.81 5.62 6 . 77 WA WA 5.60 5.45 5.45 ' • WA WA WA ' 5.61 5.60 6.23 (January 1968) 77 INDEX SERIES FINDING GUIDE (PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles) Series titles by economic process and other groupings (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Timing classification Charts Tables Appendixes Page I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT *1. *30. 2. 5. 3. 301. 46. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg. Nonagricultural placements, all indus Accession rate, manufacturing Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance Layoff rate, manufacturing Nonagri. job openings unfilled Help-wanted advertising L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... C ... C ... 9 9 9 9 9 17 17 33 33 33 33 33 38 38 511. *41. 42. *43. 45. 40. *502. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments Employees in nonagri. establishments Total nonagricultural employment Unemployment rate, total Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State Unemployment rate, married males Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over C... C... C ... C ... C ... C .. • Lg... 17 17 17 18 18 18 22 38 38 38 38 38 38 41 C ... C ... C ... C ... C ... C... C ... C ... 18 18 IB 19 19 19 19 19 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 66-7 66-7 68 68 68 77 66 76 66 76 76 76 73 73 73 66-7 74 68 66-7 74 66-7 68 69 66-7 66-7 66-7 70 70 68 68 Oct. '67 Oct. '631 Sept. '67 July '631 Sept. !67 Apr. '67 Dec. '67 77 77 72 72 76 72 76 Apr. Oct. Feb. Feb. Dec. Feb. Apr. '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 73 73 77 74 74 77 July July Dec. July July Apr. July Apr. '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '66 II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE 49. *50. *47. *52. 53. *816. 57. *54. GNP in current dollars GNP in 1958 dollars Industrial production Personal income Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., constr. Manufacturing and trade sales Final sales Sales of retail stores 74 74 74 74 66-7 - 74 66-7 70 68 74 III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT *38. 13. *6. 94. *10. 11. 24. Index of net business formation New business incorporations New orders, durable goods industries Construction contracts, value Contracts and orders, plant and equipment New capital appropriations, mfg New orders, mach. and equip, industries L ... 10 L ... 10 L ... 10 L ... 10 L ... 10 L ... n L ... n 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 9. 7. *29. 96. 97. *61. 505. Construction contracts, comm. and indus Private nqnfarm housing starts New building permits, private housing Unfilled orders, durable goods industries Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend L .. . 11 L ... n L ... 11 C ... 20 C ... 20 Lg... 22 Lg- • • 22 34 34 34 40 40 41 41 L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... Lg... Lg... 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 41 41 66-7 68 68 '68 68 68 70 68 66-7 66-7 74 66 78 June ' 65 Aug. '631 June '67 78 76 75 May '67 Aug. '67 Dec. '67 68 70 70 69 78 76 74 78 77 65 78 Aug. June Dec. Aug. June Nov. 72 71 68 71 68 68 71 69 69 72 72 68 75 65 75 76 73 72 73 68 6-7 66-7 May '67 '67 '65 '67 '67 '64 '67 IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT 21. *31. 37. 20. 26. 32. 25. *71. 65. Change in business inventories Change, mfg. and trade inventories Purchased materials, higher inventories Change, mtls. and supplies inventories Buying policy, production materials Vendor performance, slower deliveries Change in unfilled orders, durable goods Book value, mfg. and trade inventories Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value * Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 22 22 66-7 66-7 L ; leading C = roughly coincident, Lg-lagging. x 73 July '67 Nov. '66 June '631 Dec. '67 June ' 64 Jan. '68 Dec. '67 Apr. '67 Apr. '67 Appendix G in this issue. 79 SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued (PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles) Series titles by economic process and other groupings (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Timing classification Charts Tables Appendixes Page Issue 75 76 77 72 73 71 72 73 72 75 75 73 Dec. Apr. Oct. July July Apr. July Feb. Apr. July July Feb. V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS *23. *19. 19. *16. 22. 18. *17. 55. 58. 68. *62. 81. Industrial materials prices .-.. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (1941-43= 10) Stock prices, 500 common stocks (1957-59 = 100) Corporate profits after taxes Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate Profits per dollar of sales, mfg Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg Wholesale price index, industrial commodities Wholesale price index, manufactured goods Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfin. corporations Labor cost per unit of output, mfg Consumer prices L ... L ... L- • • L. L . L. L . C... C ... Lg... Lg... U ... 13 13 32 20 23 23 24 36 36 48 36 36 36 36 40 40 42 42 43 20 66-7 66-7 68-9 66-7 66-7 66-7 68 68 70 70 70 70 68 68 68 70 69 69 73 '67 '64 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 VI. MONEY AND CREDIT 98. 85. 33. *113. 112. 110. 14. 39. 93. 114. 116. 115. 117. 66. *72*67. 118. Change, money supply and time deposits Change, total U.S. money supply Change, mortgage debt Change, consumer installment debt Change, business loans 2 Total private borrowing^ Liabilities of business failures Delinquency rate, instal. loans, 30 days and over L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... L... L .•• 15 15 1$ 1$ 15 16 16 16 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 Free reserves Treasury bill rate 2 2 Corporate bond yields2 Treasury bond yields Municipal bond yields 2 Consumer installment debt Comm. and indus. loans outstanding Bank rates on short-term business loans Mortgage yields, residential 2 C -.. C ... C ... C ... C ... Lg... Lg... Lg... Lg... 21 21 21 21 21 23 23 23 23 40 40 40 40 40 42 42 42 42 U ... U ... U ... U ... U , .. U ... U ... 24 24 24 25 25 2$ 25 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 72 72 71 69 69 69 69 U... U ... U ... U ... U... U ••• U••• U ••• U ... 26 26 26 26 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 72 72 70 70 70 69 69 69 69 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 70 69 VII. 66-7 71 71 71 71 71 70 68 68 73 73 73 73 66-7 66-7 Sept. '67 Sept. '67 Apr. '67 Dec. '67 Apr. '67 Feb. '67 Nov. '631 Apr. '67 76 71 72 76 77 77 73 75 77 Jan. July Aug. Jan. Jan. Dec. Apr. Jan. Jan. '68 '64 '66 '68 '68 '67 '67 '68 '68 79 79 74 73 77 78 74 June June Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 73 76 78 78 78 76 78 77 66 76 July Oct. Oct. Oct. July Dec. Dec. Oct. Aug. '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '64 '67 73 73 77 77 77 78 78 78 79 79 July July July July July July July July '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 71 68 69 69 70 69 77 76 71 78 75 73 66 71 73 FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS 89. U.S. balance of payments: a. Liquidity balance basis b. Official settlements basis 88. Merchandise trade balance 86. Exports, excluding military aid 861. Export orders, durable goods, except motor vehicles.... 862. Export orders, nonelectric machinery 87. General imports 73 VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES 95. 84. 83. 82. 101. 91. 90. 99. 92. Fed. balance, nat'l. income and prod, account Federal cash surplus or deficit Federal cash receipts from public Federal cash payments to public National defense purchases, current dollars Defense Department obligations, total Defense Dept. obligations, procurement New orders, defense products industries Military contract awards in U.S 27 27 27 27 27 73 73 U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION 850. 851. 852. 853. 854. 855. 856. 857. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments durable goods Ratio, prod, of bus. equipment to consumer goods Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income .. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to unemployed.... Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices Vacancy rate in total rental housing ......... | U. U ... U. U ... U .. U .. U .. U. . 28 28 70 69 69 70 *Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators, L=leading, c = roughly coincident, Lg-lagging, U-unclassified ("other selected U.S. series,' "U.S. series under consideration" and "international comparisions"). L Appendix G in this issue. 2 A description of this series is contained in the July 1964 issue of BCD (appendix G). 80 SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued (PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles) Series titles by economic process and other grouping (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Timing classification Charts Tables Appendixes F 1 2 1 2 3 4 B D C Page Issue INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS 123. 122. 126. 125. 128. 121 127 Canada index of industrial production United Kingdom index of industrial production France, index of industrial production West Germany, index of industrial production Japan, index of industrial production OECD Europe iridex of industrial production Italy index of industrial production u u 133 132 136 135. 138. 137 Canada index of consumer prices United Kingdom index of consumer prices France index of consumer prices West Germany index of consumer prices Japan index of consumer prices Italy index of consumer prices U 143. 142 146. 145 148 147 Canada, index of stock prices United Kingdom index of stock prices France index of stock prices West Germany index of stock prices Japan index of stock prices Italy index of stock prices U U.... U u U u u U U U U u U u U U 76 77 78 77 68 77 78 July Nov. Nov. Nov. Oct. Nov. Nov. '67 '67 '67 '67 '64 '67 ! 67 79 79 80 79 80 80 Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 69 69 69 69 69 69 81 81 82 81 82 82 Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 - 83 72 77 69 72 72 73 Oct. Apr. Aug. Oct. Apr. Apr. May '67 '65 '67 '64 '65 '65 '65 Nov. Apr. Apr. Apr. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '67 '65 '67 '65 '64 '64 '64 '64 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 31 31 31 31 31 31 47 47 47 47 47 47 69 69 69 69 69 69 - - 48 48 48 48 48 48 32 32 32 32 32 32 - - DIFFUSION INDEXES Dl. D6. Dll. D34. D19 D23 D5 Average workweek New orders Capital appropriations Profits, mfg Stock prices Industrial materials prices Initial claims 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 54 54 54 55 55 55 55 D41 D47. D58 D54. D35 D36. D48 D61. Employees in nonagri establishments Industrial production Wholesale prices mfg Retail sales Net sa les mfrs New orders Freight carloadings New plant and equipment expenditures 52 52 52 52 53 53 53 53 56 56 56 56 57 57 57 57 58 58 73 59 60 60 61 61 62 63 - 79 73 78 73 70 70 68-9 69 U« unclassified ("other selected U.S. series," "U.S. series under consideration," and "international comparisons"). 81 . . . Where do we go from here? New report from the Census Bureau . . . 200,000,000 Americans . . . issued to mark a U.S. population milestone. It tells who we are, where we are, how we live and grow, our prospects for tomorrow as we pass this significant mark in America's amazing development... our social and economic makeup clearly and dramatically presented in the easy-to-read and generously illustrated new booklet 200 MILLION AMERICANS. In color. 80 pages. More than 140 photographs and 35 maps, tables, and charts. $1.00 ORDER FORM Mail with remittance to: Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 OR any Department of Commerce field office AMgRSCANB Please send me copies of 200 MILLION AMERICANS at $1.00 each. Enclosed find $ (check, money order, or Supt. of Documents coupons) or charge to my Deposit Account No Name — Street address City, State, and ZIP Code . itles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes le numbers assigned to the series are for identification purDses only and do not reflect series relationships or order. NT indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series, ata apply to the whole period except for series designated y "EOM" (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter), 'he Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in fhich a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus, '(M, II)" indicates a monthly series classified in group II. 'he general classification follows the approach of the National Jureau of Economic Research, Inc. The series preceded by in asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" )f 25 indicators. 36 Leading Indicators I. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics !. Accession rate, manufacturing (M,I).-Department of/Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics I. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,I).-Department of Labor, bureau of Labor Statistics i. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 5. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods indus tries (!YI,III).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 1. New private nonfarm housing units started (M,III).-Depart ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 3. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings,floor space(M,lll).--F.W Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National' Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 0. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,III).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F.W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. .1. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q,lll).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total 13. Number of new business incorporations (M, 111).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,VI).^Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of. Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q,V).~Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission, seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census <19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (IY!,Y).-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories ui materials and supplies (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *23. Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M,IV).-Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census *47. Index of industrial production (M,II).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer. (M,IV).-National Association of Purchasing Agents: no seasonal adjustment *52. Personal income (HI,II).-Department of Commerce., Office of Business Economics *29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M,II).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (iyi,l).«Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security, seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census ' *54. Sales of retail stores (Wl,II).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and Bureau of the Census 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M,IV.)..-Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M,VI).-Institute of Life Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association, National Association of Mutual Savings Banks,. U.S. Savings and Loan League, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M,IV).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *38. Index of net business formation (M,lll).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census;' seasonal adjustment'by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM,VI).-American Bankers Association seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964) 85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M,III).»F.W. Dodge Corporation 98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M,VI). ~ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q,VI). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: no seasonal adjustment 57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,II). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods CV1,V).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,, no seasonal adjustment 93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrow ings) (N1,VI). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 96.Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ,III). National Industrial Conference Board., component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (Wl,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, no seasonal adjustment 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,VI).- Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment » 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M,VI). ~ First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department: no seasonal adjustment 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (WI,VI). The Bond Buyer; no seasonal adjustment 301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM,I). Department of Labor,, Bureau of Employment Security: seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments, (M,l). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *816. Manufacturing and trade sales (M,ll).-Department of Commerce,. Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census 112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M, VI). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 25 Roughly Coincident Indicators 40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present ((VI,I) Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M,I). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,l). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *43. Unemployment rate, total (Nl,l) Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the. Census 11 Lagging Indicators *61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q,III).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM,IV).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,l).-* National Industrial Conference Board Continued on reverse UNITED STATES POSTAGE AND FEES P A I D GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING O F F I C WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS FIRST CLASS MAIL Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Continued *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q,VI).« Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations (ratio of current-dollar compensation of employees to gross corporate product in 1958 dollars) (Q,V).~Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National Income Division *71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total (EOM, IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages(WI,VI).-Federal Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment *502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M,l).~Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 505. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 16 Other Selected U.S. Series 81. Index of consumer prices (IKI.V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment 82. Federal cash payments to the public (Q,VII1).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget 83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Q,VIII).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget 84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Q,VIII).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget 86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M,VH).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 87. General imports, total (M,VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 99. New orders, defense products industries (M,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry of Inte national Trade and Industry (Tokyo) 101. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics ... United States, index of industrial production (M,l|).-Se series 47 861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicles and parts (M,VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; no seasonal adjustment 132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).-Ministry ( Labour (London); no seasonal adjustment 862. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M,V|I).McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion Bureau o Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment 8 U.S. Series Under Consideration 850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. (Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Economics Department 851. Ratio, inventories (BCD series 71) to sales (BCD series 816), manufacturing and trade total (M).- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 852. Ratio, unfilled orders (BCD series 96) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (M).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (index: 1957-59 = 100) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial production.) 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Q).Departmentof Commerce, Office of Business Economics 855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (BCD series 301) to number of persons unemployed (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing to consumer prices (BCD series 81) (M).~ Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M,VIII).~ Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 91. Defense Department obligations, total (M,VIII).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions (MTVIII).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 95. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product account (Q,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 136. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut National d la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); nc seasonal adjustment 137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-lstituto Centrale c Statistica(Rome); no seasonal adjustment 138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the Pnm< Minister (Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment . . . United States,, index of consumer prices (M,V).- Se< Series 81 142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).--The Financia Times (London); no seasonal adjustment 143. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Domimon Bureau o Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment 145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).~Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment 146. France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no seasonal adjustment 147. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-lstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); no seasonal adjustment 148. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock Exchange (Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment . . . United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,V).-See series 19 857. Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental housing units as a percent of total rental housing (Q).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M,VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments (Q,VII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).-Statistische Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment Diffusion Indexes 19 International Comparisons 121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M).Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).-Central Statistical Office (London) The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above for DI, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, and D61. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows: D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).-Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa) 125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonally adjusted by OECD 126. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment 127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).--lstituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome) D48. Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment For Index-Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue. D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment