Full text of Business Conditions Digest : January 1968
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
bed
DEVELOPMENTS
January 1968
DATA THROUGH DECEMBER
.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Economic
Research and Analysis Division under the
direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication areFeli ks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A. Beckman^Specifications for
computer processing,
Qerald F. Donahoe—New projects,
IVIorton Somer—Selection of seasonal
adjustment methods,
Betty F* Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
Editorial supervision is provided by GeraTdine
Censky of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division. Stuart I. Freeman is responsible for publication design.
The cooperation of various government and
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this report.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Alexander B. Trowbridge, Secretary
William H. Shaw, Asst. Secy., Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
Subscription price is $7 a year ($1.75 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are
60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional
charge. For information about domestic or
foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
enclosing a copy of your address label' ft/lake
checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents, Send to U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S.
Department of Commerce Field Office.
ABOUT THE COVER—Series in this publication
are grouped according to their usual timing
and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business
activity. The center panel illustrates this
concept. The vertical bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which
usually fall before a contraction has begun and
rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the
Coincident Series which usually fall with the
contraction period; the bottom curve, the
Lagging Series which fall after a contraction
has begun and rise after it ends. Series are also
classified by economic process within each
timing group. Processes are indicated in the
squares bordering the panel,
bed
BU'SINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
OF COMMERCE
PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic
indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation
and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list
of indicators and their classification into "leading," "roughly coincident,"
and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which
has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years.
The business cycle turning dates are also those designated by NBER. In
addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight
economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special
series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total
of machinery and equipment sales, and business construction) have been
constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis.
The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their
cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any
approach to business cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled
by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended
only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide
information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business
conditions.
The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according
to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the
cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in
evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and
contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be
readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted.
About 115 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. (This figure includes 19 foreign series in addition to 96 U.S.
series.) Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source agency.
A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on the back
cover of this report.
January 196S
DATA THROUGH DECEMBER
DEVELOPMENTS
CONTENTS
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical
Timing
Background Materials
New Features and Changes for This Issue
3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations
iii
iv
v
vi
Descriptions and Procedures
Introduction
Timing Classification
Economic Process Classification
"Short List" of Indicators
Method of Presentation
Concepts and Procedures
References
,
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
4
Section One—Basic Data
Table
Chart
Chart
Table
Table
1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
1A. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
IB. Series for International Comparisons From 1948 to Present
2A. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
2B. Latest Data for International Comparisons
6'
9
30
33
46
Section Two—Analytical Measures
Chart 2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Table 3. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Table 4. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
51
54
58
For Index—Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.
CONTENTS
Continued
Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United
States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series
65
66
68
73
74
75
Index
Series Finding Guide
79
11
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
(Minor economic processes and the number of series in each process are shown for each classification. See the index and back cover for series titles)
^\
Cyclical
\,
Timing
Economic
^\^^
Process
\.
1. EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(38 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
'
^
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment commitments
($ series)
IV. INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
(17 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive employment
(3 series),
Comprehensive unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration unemployment
(1 series)
OTHER
SELECTED U.S. SEMES
(16 series)
Comprehensive production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive consumption
and trade (3 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(11 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)
Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)
Investment expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
Sensitive commodity prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit margins
(4 series)
Comprehensive wholesale prices Unit labor costs
(2 series)
(2 series)
Flows of money and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Comprehensive retail
prices (1 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans and mortgages
(2 series)
VII. FOREIGN TRADE
AND PAYMENTS
(6 series)
Foreign trade and
payments
(6 series)
VIII. FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
ACTIVITIES
(9 series)
Federal Government
activities
(9 series)
111
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
A revised list of indicators was introduced in the April
issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Research work for the revised list was carried out by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER),
a private, nonprofit research organization which has
been preparing lists of economic indicators and research
reports in the field of business cycle analysis for more
than 40 years. This revised list was published by the
National Bureau in March 1967, and is the result of
a periodic review made by that agency of its previous
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity. This
is the third revision of the list originally published by
the National Bureau in 1938.
The method of preparing the new list, the reasons for
adding certain series and dropping others, and an
explanation of the classification system used are described in a new report, INDICATORS OF BUSINESS
EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS, published by
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 261
Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10016. Other reports on the historical studies and methods of making
current interpretations of the indicators are listed in
this book.
The revised list includes some new series, discontinues some of those on the previous list, and has
assigned timing classifications to some series previously
unclassified by timing. The chief features of the new list
follow:
1. The major principle of classification is a fourfold grouping by cyclical timing: Leading, roughly
coincident, and lagging indicators, and other selected
series. The first three categories take into account
timing at both peaks and troughs; the fourth group
includes economic activities that have an important
role in business cycles but have displayed a less
regular relation to them. The new list of indicators
includes 36 leading series, 25 roughly coincident
series, 11 lagging series, and 16 series unclassified
by timing—88 series in all; 69 are monthly and
19 are quarterly. This list includes 13 series not on
the previous NBER list and omits 5 series. In addition, 14 series previously unclassified by timing are
assigned a timing classification.
2. The type of economic process represented by
the series is used as a secondary principle of classification, with emphasis on the processes that are
important for business cycle analysis. The 88 U.S.
series are classified into eight major groups: (I)
Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II)
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8
series; (III) Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series;
(IV) Inventories and Inventory Investment, 9 series;
(V) Prices, Costs, and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money
and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and
Payments, 6 series; and (VIII) Federal Government
Activities, 9 series. Each of these major categories
is subdivided into economic processes that exhibit
rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. For
example, under Fixed Capital Investment, new investment commitments are distinguished from investment expenditures.
3. A short list of 25 indicators, drawn from the
full list, is identified throughout BCD. This more
selective list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident,
and 6 lagging series; 21 are monthly and 4 are
quarterly. The short list involves little of the duplica-
tion in economic coverage that is provided, for
various reasons, in the full list. The series on the
short list are identified by asterisks.
4. Two other groups of series are shown in BCD
in addition to the 88 NBER indicators. They are
"U.S. Series Under Consideration" (eight series not
yet classified by cyclical timing and economic process
but under consideration for the list of indicators)
and "International Comparisons" (19\series showing
industrial production, consumer prices, and stock
prices for several countries which have important
trade relations with the United States).
Changes in the 1966 list of indicators are as follows
(series identification number and title):
13 series new to the 1966 list:
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book
value
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks
101. National defense purchases
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicle and parts
862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
5 series on the previous list but omitted from the
1966 list:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
*51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York
*64. Manufacturers' inventories, book value
111. Corporate gross savings
10 series specially constructed for business cycle
studies at the suggestion of the NBER:
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies
*38. Index of net business formation
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments
*Denotes series included on "short list."
IV
• A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect new
findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series and
to report recent changes made by producing agencies in concept, composition,
comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc.
Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in
placement of series in relation to other series, changes in components of
indexes, etc.
There are no changes as described above in this issue.
Appendix F includes historical data for series 32, 67,
93, 115, 117, and 118.
The February issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on February 28.
3 CENSUS
PROJECTS
on economic
fluctuations
CENSUS METHOD II ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. A time series computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is
particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within a year.
The latest variant, X-ll, has greater generality and scope than any of the
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.
BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A monthly report for analyzing economic
fluctuations over a shorf span of years.
This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic
indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and prospects.
These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half a century
of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this purpose. The
publication provides not only the basic data, but also various charts and
analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time series punchcard file and a diffusion index program are available for those who wish to
carry on further research in business cycle analysis.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH An annual report for the study of
economic fluctuations over a long span of years.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's
economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A
punchcard file of the time series included in the report is available for
purchase.
vi
DESCRIPTIONS
AND
INTRODUCTION
The business cycle is generally described as consisting
of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in
aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of
activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the
flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many
economists do-not consider it inevitable.
The causal relations among various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions
have eventually turned into recessions and recessions
into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production
and employment are preceded by fluctuations in
measures which relate to future rather than current
production—measures such as new orders for durable
goods, formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest
rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts.
TIMING CLASSIFICATION
On the basis of many years of research, the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has compiled a
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity and has
classified these indicators according to whether they
usually lead, roughly coincide with, or lag behind the
cyclical movements in aggregate activity. The 1966 list,
as issued by the NBER, is the basis for the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Prior to April 1967, their 1960 list was
used. The series have been grouped and classified by
the NBER as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lag-
ging" indicators. These indicators are described as
follows:
Leading Indicators.—Series that usually reach peaks
or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity
as measured by the roughly coincident series (see
below). One group of these series pertains to orders
and contracts, another to inventory investment, and
so on.
Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series that are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move
roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural
employment, industrial production, and retail sales.
Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new plant and
equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after they are
reached in aggregate economic activity.
Also included in BCD are (a) "Other Selected U.S.
Series," economic activities which are important in
analyzing business cycles but have a less consistent
relation to them; (b) "U.S. Series Under Consideration," indicators that measure important economic relationships but have not been classified by economic
process and timing and, therefore, not yet incorporated
into the list of 88 indicators; and (c) indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
several countries which have important trade relations
with the United States.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report
are those designated by the NBER. They mark the
approximate dates when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high (peak) or low (trough) levels.
As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months
after it has occurred. (See appendix A for peak and
trough dates.)
ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION
A secondary principle of classification, economic
process, supplements the timing classification. All series
are cross-classified according to these two principles.
The major economic process categories are employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories' and inventory investment; prices, costs, and
profits; money and credit; foreign trade and payments;
and Federal Government activity.
"SHORT LIST" OF INDICATORS
A short, substantially unduplicated list of principal indicators provides a convenient way of summarizing
the current situation and outlook. The NBER has
identified, for this purpose, a short list of 25. This list
includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging
indicators; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. These
series are identified throughout BCD.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report consists of two major sections as follows:
Basic Data (chart 1, tables 1 and 2).—Data for all
series are shown for the current and prior periods
in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad view
of past and current business cycle fluctuations is
provided.
Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 and 4).—
Measures are presented which help to determine the
magnitude and scope of, current changes in different
processes, industries, and areas, and aid in evaluating
the prospects of a turning point in the business cycle.
A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on
the back cover of this report. The series numbers are
for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES
Several other concepts and procedures used in this
report are summarized below:
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are
often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical
trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency. In addition, for the
special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of
series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally
adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis
in this report. The seasonal adjustment process usually
accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there
are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment
is needed for holidays with variable dates.
Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the
cyclical movements in a monthly series. MCD moving
averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD
of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of
the variation about these moving averages, monthly
data are also plotted.
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures
which express what percentage of the components of an
aggregate series has risen over given time spans. Their
turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate.
Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion
indexes. Many of the component series used to make
up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 4.
During the current expansion, high values for the
indicators are identified in table 2. These values are
not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the
highest values reached to date.
Certain appendix materials are presented regularly
in this report. These materials include historical data,
adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other
information helpful in interpreting trends in the indicators.
REFERENCES
Fuller explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate
economic activity in analyzing current business conditions and prospects may be found in the following
references:
(1) Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes and
First Differences," The Economic Journal,
June 1958, pp. 288-301.
(2) Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes," American Statistician vol. IX, No. 2 (June 1955),
pp. 7-16.
(3) Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C.
Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1946.
(4) Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American
Statistical Association, August 1966, pt. V, pp.
64-75.
(5) Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to
Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National
Bureau," The Review of Economics and Statistics vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August 1962), pp. 284291.
(6) Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators,"
How Business Economists Forecast (William F.
Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt. I, ch. 2,
pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: PrenticeHall, 1966.
(7) Moore, Geoffrey H., Editor, Business Cycle
Indicators. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.
(8) Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions,
Occasional Paper 103. New York: National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1967.
(9) Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of the
National Bureau's Leading Indicators," Business
Cycle Indicators vol. I, ch. 4, pp. 110-119. New
York: National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 1961.
(10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical
Turning Point Predictors," Journal of Business,
April 1960, pp. 101-120.
(11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators: The
Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at
the 34th session of the International Statistical
Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August 24, 1963.
Washington: Bureau of the Census, 1963.
(12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 77. New York:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1961.
HOW TO READ CHARTS 1 AND 2
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 - Series
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("3"= March)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Series are
arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by
timing and economic process.
R o m a n number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
["II" = second quarter)
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures
or MCD moving averages/)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
B r o k e n line i n d i c a t e s a c t u a l
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.).
40
Solid line with plotting points indi
cates quarterly data.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indi
cates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
' series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic
scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic
scale with 2 cycles in that distance,
etc. The scales should be carefully
noted because they show whether
or not the plotted lines for various
series are directly comparable.
t
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Scale shows percent of components
rising.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("2" =
February)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("IV"fourth quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups
by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed
by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to
some readers.
Section ONE
DATA
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Employment and
unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, cosfs, and profits
Money and credit
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Producfion, income, consumption, and frade
Fixed capital investment
Prices, cosfs, and profits
Money and credit
LAGGING INDICATORS
Employment and
unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
OTHER US. SERIES
Prices, cosfs, and profits
Foreign trade and payments
Federal Government activities
Also U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION (unclassified series) and INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
(indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for selected foreign countries)
Table 1
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change 2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Sept.
1967
Oct.
1967
Nov.
1967
3
Dec. '66 Dec. '66 1953 to
to date to date
1965
(with 4 (without
(without
5
sign)
sign)
sign)5 6
Dec.
1967
Current percent change 3
Sept.
to
Oct.
1967
Oct.
to
Nov.
1967
Nov.
to
Dec.
1967
LEADING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
4-0.8
Hours
r40.7
r40.7
*1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
482
Thousands
*30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
471
474
r4.7
Per 100 employ. .
2. Accession rate manufacturing
4.3
P4.4
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
200
unemployment insurance (inverted ). Thousands
203
194
pi. 2
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 3) . Per 100 employ. .
1.3
1,3
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises:
110.2
1957-59=100...
112.9
*38. Index of net business formation
110.3
17,908
18,621
Number
13. New business incorporations
18,409
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. .. Bil. dollars
r23.38
23.42
r23.84
1957-59=100...
94. Construction contracts, value
168
171
168
r5.81
r5.96
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and7 equip. . .Bil. dollars
5.74
do
(HA)
11. New capital appropriations, mfg.
do
r4.6l
4*.66
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
r4.87
Mil. sq. ft.
9. Construction contracts, commercial
65.50
floor space . . . 62.01
and industrial buildings
55.11
rl,478
Ann. rate, thous.
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
rl,564
1,415
1957-59=100 ..
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing
rl02.2
102.3
106,9
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
21. Change in business
inventories, all
p+9.0
Ann. rate, bii.dol.
industries7 8
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
8
r+6,2
do
-0.7
and trade inventories
p+12.3
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
Percent
higher inventories
48
47
45
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven8
Ann. rate, bii.dol.
tories of materials and supplies
-1.0
r-0.1
p+0.3
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer C5)
Percent . .
61
62
63
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries u)
. do .
50
51
44
25. Change in unfilled8 orders, durable
Bil. dollars .. .
goods industries
r+1.07
+0,47
r+0.19
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices ®
1957-59=100...
97.7
97.8
99.1
Stock Prices:
95.81
92.66
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks ® . . .1941-43=10...
9,5.66
Profits and Profit Margins:
(M)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes 7
Ann. rate, bii.dol.
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
7
Percent
corporate, all industries
(NA)
Cents
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.7
(MA)
1957-59=100..
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
r99.2
99^4
r99.4
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in8money supply and time
Ann.rate,percent
deposits
+6.12 r+10.08 r+8.64
do
85. Change in total U.S. money
suoply8. . . .
r+6.00
+0.72
r+7.32
8
33 Change in mortgage debt
Ann. rate, bii.dol. r+20.62 r+20.20 p+21,70
8
do
*113. Change in consumer installment
debt . .
+5.02
+3.73
+3.41
8
do
112. Change in business loans
.
r+5.36
r+1.90
-2.34
7
(NA)
110. Total private borrowing
Ann. rate, mil.dol
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 3) Mil. dollars ...
98.00
93.10
77.24
39. Delinquency rate, installment3 loans,
Percent
30 days and over (inverted )
1.69
P40.8
p474
(MA)
0.0
-0.8
-0.2
0.4
3.0
4/5
0.5
1.8
4.6
-0.2
+0.6
+9.3
0.0
+1.7
-6.4
197
(NA)
0.0
-0.3
8.1
10.7
5.0
9.2
-1.5
0.0
+4*4
+7.7
-1.5
(NA)
(NA)
(HA)
+1.0
+1.2
1.1
4.2
0.8
2.5
+0.1
-2.7
+2.4
+4.0
(NA)
(NA)
2.9
6,2
3.5
2.8
3.8
3.8
6.6
4.7
9.7
4.2
-0.2
+1.8
+3.8
-1.1
+2.0
-1.8
-2.5
(HA)
+5.6
+9.5
-1.2
+4.0
P5.13
+0.8
+2.1
+0.9
+0.5
+1.0
65.37
pi, 241
p!20.2
+1.5
+3.1
+5.3
11.2
8.0
7.1
9.3 -11.1
7.3 +4.5
3.7
+4.5
+18.9
+5.8
-4.4
-0.2
-20.7
+17.6
-2.4
6.6
2.3
(NA)
-0.7
5.8
3.7
+6.9
+6.1
(HA)
55
+0.4
8.5
6.5
+4.4
+2.1
+14.6
(NA)
-0.1
1.4
1.5
+0.9
+0.4
(HA)
64
-0.6
4.0
5.3
+1.6
+1.6
+1.6
48
-0,8
8.3
7,5
+13.6
+2.0
-5.9
p+0.93
+0.06
0.72
0.48
+0.60
-0.88
+0.74
100.1
-0.5
1.1
1.3
-0.1
+1.4
+1.0
95.30
+1.3
2.1
2.5
-0.2
-3.1
+2.8
-1.5
2,3
5.6
(NA)
-2.4
-3.4
-0.2
2.4
3.4
0.5
4.2
5.7
0.6
(HA)
(HA)
0.0
pf-5.28
p+2.04
(HA)
(HA)
p+7.62
-0.02
-0.01
+1,27
+0.11
+0.66
+5.7
3.70
5.63
3.00
0.77
7.68
10.1
2.49
2. 88
1.31
0,87
2,22
11.0
234.92
-11.8
32.2'
18,7
-5.3
+0.5
4.9
2.6
-2.4
p26.11
166
p6.04
plOO.8
(HA)
1
+0.2
-1.7
(HA)
+5.3
+5.2
+0.2
+1.4
+3-96 -1.44
+6.60 -1.32
-0.42 +1.50
+0,32 +1,29
+7,70 -3.46
(HA)
-3.36
-3.96
(HA)
(HA)
+5.72
+21.2
-204.1
(HA)
Table 1
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Sept.
1967
Oct.
1967
Average percent change2 3
Nov.
1967
Dec.
1967
Dec. '66 Dec. '66 1953 to
to date
to date
1965
(with
(without (without
4
5
sign)5 6
sign)
sign)
Current percent change3
Sept.
to
Oct.
1967
Oct.
Nov.
1967
Nov.
to
Dec.
1967
to
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Job Vacancies:
301 Nonagri job openings unfilled
46. Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
511. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments...
*41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . .
42. Total nonagricultural employment
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted ). . .
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State (inverted3 )
40. Unemployment rate, married males (inv?)
Thousands
1957-59 = 100..
Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours ...
Thousands
do
Percent
do.. ..
do
378
185
368
186
P347
(MA)
-1.2
-0.2
3.2
2.2
3.1
3.0
-2.6
+0.5
-3.5
+0.5
-2.3
(NA)
r!34.68 r!34.48 r!36.37 P136.07
66,055 r66,243 r66,929 p67,128
71,417
70,923
71,254
70,949
+0.2
+0.2
+0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
-0.1
+0.3
0.0
+1.4
+1.0
+0.5
-0.2
+0.3
+0.2
355
pl87
4.1
4.3
3.9
3.7
-0.1
3.8
3.9
-4.9
+9.3
+5.1
2.4
1.8
2.3
1.9
2.3
1.7
2.2
1.7
+0.2
-0.3
4.3
6.4
4.2
5.1
+4.2
-5.6
0.0
+10.5
+4.3
0.0
pl6l.6
+1.5
+0.7
+0.1
1.5
0.7
0.7
1.5
1.3
1.0
-0.1
+2.1
+1.1
+1.7
+1.4
p648.1
pl69.7
+0.6
+0.4
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.8
+0.2
-0.2
+1.0
+1.9
+0.9
+0.8
1.0
1.8
1.0
1.0
1.4
1.0
-0.9
-2.4
+3.2
+1.4
+1.4
(NA)
p26,343
+0.3
+1.8
+0.3
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production:
49. GNP in current dollars 7
*50. GNP in 1958 dollars 7
*47. Industrial production
Ann. rate, bil. dot
do
1957-59-100..
156>!8
r!56.6
p807.6
p679.4
r!59.3
Comprehensive Income:
*52. Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr .
Ann.rate,bil.dol.
do
634.4
165.5
r635.9
165.2
r642.4
rl68.4
Mil. dollars...
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
Mil. dollars...
88,785
Bii. dollars...
do
77.27
p20.68
r78.34
r78.53
p79.46
(NA)
+0.3
-0.1
0.9
1.2
1.4
5.6
+1.4
+0.2
+1.2
(NA)
1957-59-100..
do
106.5
107.1
106.8
107.1
107.1
107.2
107.4
107.6
+0.1
+0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
+0.3
0.0
+0.3
+0.1
+0.3
+0.4
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves 8 (inverted 3 )©
Mil. dollars...
+268
+160
r+270
IH-103
-22
88
98
+108
-110
+167
Money Market Interest Rates:
114. Treasury bill rate®
116. Corporate bond yields ®
115 Treasury bond yields®
117. Municipal bond yields @
Percent
do
..... do
do
4.45
6.33
4.99
4.12
4.59
6.53
5.19
4.30
4.76
6.87
5.44
4.34
5.01
6.93
5.36
4.43
+0.3
+1.3
+1.2
+1.2
6.3
3.1
2.4
2.8
6.7
1.6
1.6
2.5
+3.1
+3.2
+4.0
+4.4'
+3.7
+5.2
+4.8
+0.9
+5.3
+0.9
-1.5
+2.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
-0.3
3.1
6.5
0,0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
1.2
3.2
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales7
*54. Sales of r etail stores
26,732
p90,777
P798.7
r 26, 089 r26,467
r 87, 996
(NA)
-0.5
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus. . .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.9
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commod.®. . .
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
LAGGING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Long-Duration Unemployment:
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over (inverted 3 )
III.
Percent
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Bus. expenditures, newplantand equip.7 Ann.rate, bil.dol.
505. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures . .
do
a62.05
+1.9
70.52
r68.95
p70.75
(NA)
+0.3
1.8
1.6
-2.2
+2.6
(NA)
138.13
r!38.64
p!39.67
(NA)
+0.3
0.3
0.5
+0.4
+0.7
(NA)
27.29
r27.27
p27.48
(NA)
+0.5
0.7
0.6
-0.1
+0.8
(NA)
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories .
65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
Bil. dollars...
do
Table 1
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Average percent change 2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Sept.
1967
Oct.
1967
Nov.
1967
Dec. '66
to date
(with
sign)4
Dec.
1967
3
Dec. '66 1953 to
to date
1965
(without5 (without
sign)5 6
sign)
Current percent change3
Sept.
to
Oct.
1967
Oct.
to
Nov.
1967
Nov.
to
Dec.
1967
LAGGING INDICATORS-Continued
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.), nonfin. corp.7, . . . Dollars
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
1957-59=100 ...
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt
Mil. dollars ....
*72. Commercial and industrial loans
do
outstanding
Interest Rates on Business Loans and
Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans7®. Percent
118. Mortgage yields, residential ®
do . . .
rlOS.O
107.7
rl07.8
pl06.7
-hi. 4
+0,3
1..4
0.6
0.8
0.5
-6! 3
(HA)
+0.1
-1.0
75,77?
76,083
76,506
(MA)
+0.4
0.4
'0.8
+0.4
+0,5
(NA)
63,309
r63,592
63,797
p64,7l8
+0,7
1.2
1.0
+0.4
+0,3
+1.4
6^63
6^65
5.96
6.77
6.81
-1.4
+0.1
1.5
1.3
2.0
0.1
+<X3
+0.2
+1.8
+0.6
117.1
117.5
117.8
118,2
+0.2
0,2
0.2
+0,3
+0.3
+0.3
(MA)
Mil. dollars ....
(MA)
do
do
14-434.2 r+190.8 IN- 316, 5
+79.1
do
r2,642.7 r 2, 392. 3 r2,692,2 2,603.9
do
r796
(»A)
905
p864
(MA)
272
1957-59=100...
P239
221
Mil. dollars .... r2,208.5 r2,201,5 2,375.7 2,524.8
-72
+163
-8.8+0.8
-1.8
+1.4
+1.1
72
1,361
89,4
4,2
12.6
10,1
3,0
-3.3
-4.3
+0.3
+3.1
4.3
6,3
1,1
4.0
(NA)
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Retail Prices:
81. Consumer prices®
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:7 *
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
88. Merchandise trade balance ^
86. Exports, excluding military aid
861. Export orders, durables exc. mot. veh.®
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery .
87. General imports
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit
(-), nat'l.
income and prod, acct.7 8
84. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit7 (-)7 8
83. Federal cash receipts from public ....
82. Federal cash payments to public7
101. National 7defense purchases, current
dollars
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
90. Defense Dept oblig procurement
99. New orders, defense products industries
92 Military contract awards in U S
1957-59 = 100...
(HA)
-16.0
155.2
. 173.2
Ann. rate, bil. dpi.
do
do
do...
do
Mil. dollars... .
do
Bil. dollars... .
Mil. dollars... .
(NA)
341
(HA)
492
58,4 -243.4 +125. -7 -237.4
3.8
-9.5 +12.5
-3.3
(MA)
+8,5
12.4 -12.0
(MA)
6.3 +23.1 -12.1
3.0
+7.9
+6.3
-0.3
-
(MA)
+1.5
+0.8
-0.2
2.5
4,2
3.1
3,6
7,814
3,221
3.71
3,665
7,620
2,905
r4.09
3,665,
P74.3
6,397
1,947
- r3.14
p'3,329
(HA)
(HA)
p3.66
(HA)
+3*2
+1.8
.4-4.8
+2.1
+0.6
3.2
12.5
26.5
14.9
10.0
Percent.
Ratio
l.*56
"l.*5S
p84.3
pl*54
(MA)
-1,6
0,0
1.7
1.0
2.2
1.0
+1.3
+0.2.
-2.5
(MA)
do
3.78
3.88
r3.68
P3.52
-0.2
2,5
2.0
+2.6
-5.2
-4.3
r 122.3
r!19.7
r 122.0
pl20.0
-0.4
1.0
1.0
-2.1
+1.9
-1.6
+3.5
7.6
8.5
-1.2
+0,1
-2... 4
4,0
0,2
2,4
5.8
0.4
3.6
+1.4
2,3
(MA)
13.9
-2.5 -16.0
-33.0
-9.8
(NA)
27,4
22,5 +10.2 -23.2 +16.6
(MA)
18,1
0.0
-9-2
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg.7
851. Ratio, inventories to safes, mfg., trade.
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal saving
to disposable
personal income7
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled
856. Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing7 ..
1957-59 = 100...
Ratio
do
1957-59=100...
Percent
pO.075
0.119
115.5
0,109
115.3.
0.117
rl!5.3
(MA)
pO.120
p!15,6
+7.1
-8.4
-0,2
+7.3
0,0
(NA)
+2.6
+0.3
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. ©Not seasonally adjusted.
NA =not available; r =revised; p= preliminary; e =estimated; a=anticipated.
Series are
seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by @, that appear to contain no seasonal movement.
See additional
basic data and notes in
2
3
table 2.
Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes for the specified periods.
To facilitate interpretations of
cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and
declines as rises (see series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502).
Percent changes are computed in the usual way but the signs are reversed. See footnote 8 for other
"change" qualifications.
Average commuted with regard to sign.
Average computed without regard to sign. 8 671ie period varies among the series; however, for most
series, the period covered is 1953-65.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percentages.9Figures
are placed in the last month of quarter.
8
Chart 1A
bed
JANUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indicators
I.
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk { * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 33.
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
0
JANUARY
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
IE. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.;
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
a. Index of
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
formation (1957-59=100)
60
61
62
63
64
65
See 'Kow to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page'4. Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 33 and 34.
10
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators -Continued
Iff. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT- Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
P
(May) (Feb.;
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
T
T
P
T
farm housing starts (ann. rate,
0
permits, private
nits (index: 1957-59-100)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
67 1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4, Asterisk [ * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 34.
11
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1943 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.]
P
(July) (Aug.)
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
fg. and trade inventories
percent of cWanies reporting higher inventories
entories of materials and
mtls.,
' ' percent" of, companies
'
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk { * ) Identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 35.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
12
Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis
65
66
67
1968
bed
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Continued
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
3C. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (') identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 35 and 36.
13
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
bed
JANUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Aug.)
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) (Feb.
P T
*16. Corporate profits
Q (ann. rate, Ml dol
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( ' j identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 36.
Digitized for 14
FRASER
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
SI. MONEY AND CREDIT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
MCD moving avg.-6-term]
hange in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*113. Change In consumer
debt |ann. rate, bil. dol.)
. rate, bil.
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
moving avg.-5-term)
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 37.
15
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
21. MONEY AND CREDIT -Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
bed
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
100-i
806040-
20J
6080-
100120140160-J
180
1.0-!
ana over, total
(percent-inverted scale)
1.5-
2.0-
2.5-
3.0J
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 37.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
16
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
60
61
62
63
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
JANUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.
P T
*41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments (millions)
«
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
1
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list . Current data for these series are shown on page 38.
17
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
P
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P T
Italy) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
T
P
T
yment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
E. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk [ * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Cunent data for these series are shown on pages 38 and 39.
Digitized for18
FRASER
66
67 1968
Chart 1A
bed
JANUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
H. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Aug.)
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
*816. Mfg. and trade sales (bil. do I.)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
+
See 'How to Read Charts I and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 39.
19
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
JANUARY
1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
[Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 40.
20
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
[.MONEY AND CREDIT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
T
-I.O-i
-0.5-
0+0.5J
5-
4-
3-
6-
5-
46-
5-
4-
3J
5-1
icipal bond yields (percent)
4-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4- Current data for these series are shown on page. 40.
21
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
JANUARY
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators
bed
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
*502.
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T
P
T
ercent-inverted scale)
persons
Iff. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
*81. Bus,
plant
0 (anil, rate, ML *l.
in sales and bus constr
T3L. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
rade inventories (bil. dol.
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk ( ' ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 41.
Digitized for
22FRASER
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
JANUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators-Continued
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
curr. dol.) per dol. of
per unit of output,
g. {Mix: 1957-59-100)
3ZL MONEY AND CREDIT
stallment debt (bil. dol.
. £0ftt, and
reporting
jans outstanding, weekly
com. banks (bil. dol.
Bank rates on short-term
bus. loans, Q (percent)
Ids, residential (percent)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk {*} identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 42.
23
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
JANUARY
bed
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
3C. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May).(Feb.)
P T
(index: 1957-59=100)
SH. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S.
of payments, 0 (bil
b. Official settlements basis
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 43.
24
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
5DDL FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
Duly) (Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
P T
P
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
3.53.02.52.01.5-
1.41.21.00.80,6-
-"•] 300-
H 250200150-
3.02.5
2.01.5-
1.0-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4 Current data for these series are shown on page 43.
25
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
bed
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
SHI.FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
1948
49
50
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
T
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
[May) (Feb.)
P
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44.
Digitized for
26FRASER
60
T
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
SOU. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
80-i
70605040-
309"!
Q
—
76543-
3-
2-
1-
06-1
5-
432-
1J
6n
54-
2-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44.
27
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948
JANUARY
1968
65
67
to PRESENT-Continued
bed
U.S. Series Under Consideration
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4, Current data for these series are shown on page 45.
28
(May) (Feb.;
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
66
1968
Chart 1A
bed
JANUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued |
U.S. Series Under Consideration-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948
49
50
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
51
52
53
54
55
(July) (Apr.)
P T
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2V page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 45.
29
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
bed
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT
industrial Production Indexes
(1957-59-1001
121. OECD European countries
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
Digitized30
for FRASER
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Current data for these series are shown on page 45.
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67 1968
Chart IB
bed
JANUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Consumer Price Indexes
(1957-59-100)
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Current data for these series are shown on page 47.
31
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
JANUARY
1968
bed
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Stock Price Indexes
(1957-59=100)
s^-n
19. United States
143. Canada
/~~\.s~'
120-1
142. United Kingdom"
120 -I
146. France
~ 71
^X^^W^
^vv./v!
120- '
c
80-
145. West Germany
^j\
±
280240200160120 J
148.Japan
/
J
^
^
/
I^^—j-*'
/A> s
y
s
/
^V-"
/^- *~~^\~ n
^^NS/
280
240200-
160120
80
Ar7^
7
i:
Z
N
/A\A->\f\*.
147. (Wy
240200-
\A^
160120-
80-
40-J
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 48.
32
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67 1968
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Leading Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Formation of Business
Enterprises
Year
and
month
*1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
*30. Nonagricultural placements,
all industries
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Hours)
(Thous.)
(Per 100 employees)
1966
January
February
March
41.4
g> 41.6
41.5
570
|> 600
589
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
programs1
(Thous.)
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
*38. Index of net
business formation
13. Number of new
business incorporations
(Per 100 employees)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Number)
222
219
182
1.2
1*2
1.1
109.1
109.6
109.6
18,087
17,451
17,266
5 2
179
185
186
1.2
1.1
1.3
107.6
106.8
106.2
17,057
16,644
16,577
4.9
4.9
5.1
April
May -.
June
41.5
41.4
41.3
522
July
August
September
41.2
41.4
41.4
542
543
509
4.7
5.1
4.9
230
196
183.
1.7
1.1
1.1
104. S
103.9
102.7
16,074
16,343
15,764
October
November
December
41.3
41.3
41.0
533
530
524
5.1
4.8
4.6
186
194
212
1.1
1.2
1.3
103.3
100.6
101.4
16,233
16,206
16,583
January
February
March
41.0
40,3
40,4
534
519
497
4.6
4.3
4.1
203
242
256
1.4
1.5
1.7
102.2
103.2
103.3
16,703
15,987
16,244
April
May
June
40.5
40.3
40.3
474
448
487
4.2
4.6
4.6
263
234
225
1.5
1.4
1.4
104.0
105.7
109.0
16,760
17,627
17,799
July
August .
September
40.4
40.7
40.8
484
487
471
4.2
4.3
4.3
265
211
200
it>i.i
1.6
1.3
10S..4
110.3
110.2
16,072
17,338
18,409
October
November
December
r40.7
r40.7
p40.8
474
482
P474
r4.7
P4.4
(NA)
203
194
197
1.3
110.3
pi. 2
(NA)
B> %?
17,908
18
513
567
4,9
5.1
B> *
fi>
1967
B> a
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
. .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by 0£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA". not available.
-"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
33
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
Minor
Economic Process
New Investment Commitments
Year
and
month
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil.dol.)
*10. Contracts
94. Index of
and orders for
construction
contracts, total plant and equipment
value
(1957-59 = 100)
(Bil.dol.)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)
9. Construction 7. New private
contracts, com- nonfarm housing
mercial and
units started1
industrial
buildings
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space) (Ann.rate,thous.)
*29. Index of
new private
housing units authorized by local2
building permits
(1957-59 = 100)
1966
January
February
March
23,58
23.74
24,89
152
157
158
5*46
5.71
5.66
6^34
4.45
4.58
4.59
62.29
f£> 70.42
67.99
1,403
1,381
1,400
111.9
106.4
112.1
April
May
June
24.20
24.28
24.59
161
156
147
5.91
5.77
5.57
g>6]69
4.79
4.84
4.75
68.28
64.00
65.85
1,356
1,232
1,161
105.3
97.4
84.7
July
August
September
24.37
23.51
25.27
147
139
146
6.10
5.87
f£>6.28
5^97
5.09
4.81
4.91
63.54
63.52
64.40
1,061
1,088
1,020
82.1
75.2
65.3
October
November
December
24.24
23.03
23.96
139
130
133
5.76
5.52
5.45
5*96
4.82
4.65
4.60
54.76
64.42
60.21
824
956
910
63.4
63.4
67.1
January
February
March
22.07
22.33
22.06
126
143
149
5.40
5.34
5.50
5.*%
4.54
4.24
4.32
49,09
57.84
56.14
1,079
1,132
1,067
83.1
78.9
81.9
Apri 1
May
June
22.23
23.86
24.26
138
154
164
5.37
5.55
5.82
5.*83
4.44
4.61
4.79
59.04
53.16
64.03
1,099
1,254
1,214
90.7
91.1
97.9
July
August
September
23.72
23.73
23.42
149
165
168
5.72
6.16
5.74
p6!o5
4.85
5.06
4.66
55.29
63.00
62.01
1,356
1,381
1,415
96.4
99.4
102.3
8>171
168
166
r5.96
r5.81
p6.04
(NA)
r4.6l
r4.87
8>P5-13
55.11
65.50
65.37
rl,478
r 1,564
pi, 241
106.9
r!02.2
p!20.2
1967
October
November
December
r23.38
r23.84
|>p26.11
1968
January
February
March
April
May .
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by [JD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
SD> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" not available.
value (1,833) was reached in October 1963.
High value (124.6) was reached in February 1964.
2
34
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
Year
and
month
1966
January
February . .
March
26. Production
20. Change in
37. Purchased ma21. Change in
*31. Change in
materials, perbook value of
terials, percent of
business invenbook value of
cent of compamanufacturers'
companies reporttories after valmanufacturing
nies reporting
inventories of
invenand trade inven- ing higher
uation adjust1
commitments 60
materials2 and
tories
tories, total
ment, all indusdays or longer©
supplies
tries
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann.rate,bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting)
+9.9
+8.1
+11,7
+13.1
49
47
52
+0.9
+1.2
32. Vendor performance, percent of
companies reporting
slower deliveries©
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Percent reporting)
(Bil.dol.)
+o.a
68
67
68
B> 86
+1.27
+1.31
+1.65
74
85
r^
April
May
June
+14.0
+12.8
+17.7
+16.9
51
53
54
+3.8
+3.4
+4.0
69
70
72
82
75
69
+1.49
+1.36
+1.70
July
August
September
+11*. 4
+13.6
+15.9
+9.6
58
58
54
+1.1
+5.4
+3.3
73
73
72
70
73
72
+1.34
+0.64
IO+2.3G
S> +18*5
+18.6
+17.6
f£> +20.3
58
57
56
+1.4
+2.0
+1.6
B> 75
73
70
70
64
57
+0.79
-0.21
+0.24
+7.1
+12.5
+2.3
+3.8
47
43
46
+2.2
-1.0
-0.3
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0.99
-0.30
-1.07
April
May
June
+0.5
+3.1
+0.9
-4.2
37
39
42
+0,6
-1.1
-1.0
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.04
+0.96
+1.21
July
August
September
+3^8
+3.9
+9.4
-0.7
40
43
45
-0.8
+2,4
-1.0
61
66
61
41
43
44
+0.52
+0.09
+0,47
p+9.0
r+6,2
p+12,3
(NA)
47
4b
55
r-0.1
p+0.3
(HA)
62
63
64
50
51
48
r+1.07
rfO.19
P+0.93
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
•
. . . .
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[tD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•'•High value (63) was reached in November 1964.
High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961.
2
35
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Minor
Economic Process
Sensitive Commodity
Prices
Stock Prices
Profits and Profit Margins
*23. Index of industrial materials prices®
*19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks®
*16. Corporate profits
after taxes
22. Ratio of profits to
income originating,
corporate, all industries
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
*17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost index,
manufacturing
(1957-59 = 100)
(1941-43 = 10)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Cents)
(1957-59=100)
Year
and
month
1966
120,5
122,9
!>123.5
93.32
92.69
April
May
June
121.5
118,3
118,4
July
August
September
49*. 2
|£> 13L5
|t>9!8
105.1
105.1
105.1
91.60
86.78
86,06
49^2
13*2
9.* 3
104.4
105,1
104.6
118.8
111.7
108.9
85.84
80.65
77,81
|>49l4
13*,6
9.2
f£> 105.2
104,5
104,2
October
November
December
106.3
105.9
105,8
77.13
80.99
81,33
49 '.3
12*. 6
9*,0
103.9
103.0
103.1
1967
January
February
March
106.8
105.2
102.5
84,45
87.36
89.42
46.5
12.0
8^5
101.5
101,0
100,7
100.1
99.6
99.8
90,96
92,59
91.43
46^5
11.9
8.2
100,8
100.3
99,8
July
August
September
98.3
98.1
97.8
93.01
94.49
|> 95.81
4?!i
11,7
B'.I
100.2
99.8
r99.2
October
November
December
97.7
99.1
100.1
95.66
92,66
95.30
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1968
January
February
March
*99,6
January
February
March
April
May
June
.. ..
88.88
3
99,4
r99,4
plOO.8
94. 31
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by ED>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
terisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA". not available.
an asterisk
1
Average for January 18, 19, and 22.
Average for January 19, 22, and 23.
2
36
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
MONEY AND CREDIT
Minor
Economic Process
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
Year
and
month
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies 1
*113. Net change
in consumer
installment
debt 2
112. Change in
business loans
110. Total private borrowing
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of busi- rate, 30 days
ness failures 3 and over, total
installment loans4
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
1966
+6.48
M.56
+9.12
+7.92
+2.88
+6.36
+23.81
+21,85
+22.87
+7.16
+6.46
+7.79
+14.10
+6.24
+8.76
66,924
+12.36
+4. BO
+7.80
+9.24
-2.16
+2.88
+20,77
+17.76
+15.22
+6.37
+5.92
+6.59
+8.50
+9.58
+17.70
|C> 77,784
+3.72
+5.16
+3.36
-4.92
+1.44
+2.88
+12.54
+12.68
+11,40
+6.77
+7.22
+5.70
§0+21.11
+3.28
+0.67
56,320
62.84
159.29
128.77
-0.72
-0.72
+5.52
-2.76
0.00
+2.16
+9.96
iM-9.66
r+7.72
+4.56
+5.33
+3.85
+5.93
r+2.63
r-0.24
50,524
128.02
116.90
194.09
+7.68
+14. 16
fO+15.00
-0.72
+8.40
+11.16
+11.05
+12,11
+11.95
+3.36
+2.59
+3.17
+6.01
+0.86
+6.83
57,508
118.61
111.23
108.87
April
May
June
+5.64
+13.08
+14.28
-2.76
|>-fl2.48
+11.64
+11.64
+15.80
+19.34
+2.56
+2.32
+3.50
+9.25
+1.63
+8.16
63,220
110.80
93.00
87.20
July
August
September
+13.44
+12.96
+6.12
+11.52
+8.04
+0.72
+12.95
+22,84
r+20.62
+2.70
+4.13
+3.41
+16.46
-9.44
-2.34
p59»104
October
November
December
r+10.08
rf8.64
p+5.28
r+7.32
r+6.00
1^2.04
r+20.20
p+21.70
(NA)
+3.73
+5.02
(NA)
iM-5.36
r+1.90
p+7.62
January
February
March
April
May
June
July .
August
September .
. .
October
November
December
111,67
94.59
9S.73
'
106.93
92.41
111.23
1.73
1.78
1.76
1.76
1.79
1.75
1967
January
February
March
(NA)
64.15
98,29
93.10
98.00
77.24
234.92
l!82
1.90
1.72
l!65
1.69
(NA)
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
. ..
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated b y ® . Current high values are indicated by[3>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
G£> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p". preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
-"-High value (24.02) was reached in October 1963.
High value (+8.94) was reached in April 1965.
2
3
High value (52.86) was reached in August 1963.
High value (1.57) was reached in May 1963.
4
37
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment
Job Vacancies
511. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers
(Thous.)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
*41.Numberof
employees in
nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total nonagricultural
employment,
labor force
survey
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1966
January
February
March
392
403
428
184
191
S£>201
128.70
129.80
130.62
62,503
62,889
63,296
68,266
68,186
68,153
3.9
3.7
3.8
2.6
2.6
2,3
1.9
1.9
1.9
April . .
May .
June
430
425
421
189
185
184
130.22
130.23
131.54
63,427
63,616
64,069
68,343
68,351
68,749
3.7
3.9
3.9
2.1
2.1
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.9
July.
August
September
420
426
ft>43*
186
189
189
131.40
132.09
131.86
64,180
64,345
64,394
68,920
69,206
69,309
3.9
3.8
3.7
2.4
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
October
November
December
433
417
406
193
194
193
132.63
133.28
133.32
64,694
65,014
65,251
69,420
70,005
69,882
3.8
|>3-5
3.7
lOa.o
1.9
1.7
1.7
January
February
March
393
374
364
189
190
184
134.24
133.68
133.77
65,564
65,692
65,749
70,240
70,247
69,892
3.7
3.7
3.6
2.3
2.4
2.6
April
May
June .
353
350
347
181
174
171
133.13
132.97
133.91
65,653
65,639
65,903
70,020
69,637
70,420
3.7
3.8
4.0
2.6
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.9
2.0
July
August
September
337
352
378
169
180
185
r!33.68
r!34.87
r!34.6S
65,939
66,190
66,055
70,633
70,726
70,949
3.9
3.8
4.1
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8
2.0
1.8
October
November
December
368
355
P347
186
pi 87
(HA)
r!34.48
|£> rl36.37
p!36.07
* r66,243
r66,929
|>P67,128
70,923
71,254
j>71,417
4.3
3.9
3.7
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.9
1.7
1.7
'
2.3
1967
1,7
|>1.6
^ 1.7
1968
January
February
March
. .
April
May
June
1
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by [fD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
fc> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA". not available.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
Digitized for38
FRASER
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
1966
January
February
March
Comprehensive Income
Comprehensive Production
49. Gross national product
in current dollars
*50. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars
*47. Index of industrial production
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1957-59 = 100)
*52. Personal
income
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*816. Manufacturing and trade
sales
57. Final sales
(series 49 minus
series 21)
(Mil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*54. Sales of
retail stores
(Mil. dol.)
725*. 9
645.* 4
150.7
152.4
153.8
563.7
567.4
572.3
149.4
151.5
153.4
84,727
84,530
86,991
716.0
25,081
25,049
25,536
April
May
June
736.7
649*3
153.9
155.4
156.5
574.7
576.1
581.1
154.0
155.0
156.8
85,455
85,426
86,957
722.6
24,949
24,475
25,394
July .
August
September
748.8
654*8
157,2
157.8
158,1
584.7
589.1
594.1
156,9
158.5
159.5
86,678
86,995
86,775
737.4
25,362
25,572
25,703
October
November
December
762.1
661 !l
159.4
159.1
159.5
597.5
602.1
605.0
160.5
161.3
162.1
87,066
86,699
87,875
743.*6
25,550
25,610
25,368
January . .
February
March
7663
660 '.7
158.2
156.6
156.4
610.4
612.6
615.6
163.3
162.4
162.7
87,386
86,299
87,458
759.2
25,687
25,470
25,739
April
May
June
775.1
664.7
156.5
155.6
155.6
616.5
618.2
622.6
162.2
161.5
162.4
86,833
87,611
88,549
774.* 6
25,918
25,897
26,544
July
August
September
79i. 2
672.0
156.6
158.1
156.8
62^.0
631.6
634.4
163.4
165.2
165,5
88,991
89,295
88,785
787.4
26,444
26,422
§£>26,732
|C>p807*.6
|C>p679]4
r!56.6
r!59.3
§t>pl6l.6
r635.9
r642,4
|>p648.1
165.2
rl68.4
g>pl69.7
r87,996
i>p90,?77
(NA)
|>p798[7
r26,089
r 26, 467
p26,343
1967
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
... .
April
May
June
. .
July
....
August .
...
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by [B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
1D> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; V, preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
39
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
bed
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
PRICES, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
Minor
Economic Process
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Year
and
month
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, industrial commodities ©
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, manufactured
goods ©
(1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100)
MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank
Reserves
Money Market Interest Rates
93. Free
reserves ®
114. Treasury
bill rate©
116. Corporate bond
yields ®
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
115. Treasury 117. Municipal
bond yields© bond yields©
(Percent)
(Percent)
1966
January
February
March
63.80
65.11
66.76
April . . .
May
June
68.25
69.61
71.31
July
August
September
72.65
73.29
75.59
....
76. 33
76.17
76.42
October
November
December
19! 33
103.5
103.8
104.0
104.4
104.9
105.0
-44
-107
-246
4.60
4.67
4.63
4.93
5.09
5.33
4.43
4.61
4.63
3.52
3.64
3.72
20.56
104.3
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.5
105.6
-268
-352
-352
4.61
4.64
4.54
5.38
5.55
5.67
4.55
4.57
4.63
3.56
3.65
3.77
105.2
105.2
105.2
106.0
106.4
106.4
-362
-390
-368
4.86
4.93
5.36
5.81
6.04
6.14
4.75
4.80
4.79
3.95
4.12
4.12
20.72
105.3
105.5
105.5
106.3
106.2
106.2
|t>-431
-222
-165
g>5.39
5.34
5.01
6.04
6.11
5.98
4.70
4.74
4.65
3.94
3.86
3.86
20.40
105.8
106.0
106.0
106.4
106.4
106.3
-16
-4
+236
4.76
4.55
4.29
5.53
5.35
5.55
4.40
4.47
4.45
3.54
3.52
3.55
20.32
106.0
106.0
106.0
106.2
106.3
106.6
+175
+269
+297
3.85
3.64
3.48
5.59
5.90
6.06
4.51
4.76
4.86
3.60
3.89
3.96
p20.68
106,0
106.3
106.5
106.8
106.8
107.1
+272
+298
+268
4.31
4.28
4.45
6.06
6.30
6.33
4.86
4.95
4.99
4.02
3.99
4.12
106.8
107.1
g>107,4
107.1
107.2
jt>107.6
+160
r+270
p+103
4,59
4.76
5,01
6.53
6.87
|> 6 -93
5.19
|C>5.44
5.36
4.30
4.34
ff>20.77
1967
January
February
March
75.43
75.13
74.06
April
May
June
74.02
74.97
76.18
July
August
September
76.71
76,80
77.27
October
November
December
r78.34
r78.53
|J>p79.46
(NA)
|> 4-43
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
;
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by[j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
E> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA r not available.
40
Table 2A
bed
JANUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Investment Expenditures
Inventories
Year
and
month
*502. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
(Percent)
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.)
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
book value
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
1966
January
February
March
0.8
0.8
0.8
58!oo
65.13
63.91
66.58
121.57
122.54
123.63
23.45
23.62
23.81
April
May
June
0.8
0.7
0.6
60! 16
65.20
65.30
66.18
124.70
126.18
127.58
23.84
24.07
24.14
July
August
September
0.6
0.6
0.6
61.25
68.41
68.19
68.68
128.71
130.04
130.84
24.50
24.67
24. BS
0.7
0,6
0.6
g>62ls6
69.13
68.12
68.56
132.39
133.86
135.55
25.08
25.54
26.00
0.6
0.6
0.6
6l*.65
70, 44
69.50
68.85
136.59
136.78
137.09
26.40
26.67
26.83
0.6
|t> 0.5
0.6
61,50
66.79
67.56
68.30
137.35
137.43
137.08
27.13
27.28
27.00
July
August
September
0.6
0.6
0.6
60! 90
70.20
69,75
70,52
137.40
138.19
138.13
27.20
27.35
27.29
October
November
December
0.6
0.6
0.6
r!38.64
a62*.05 .
r27.27
|J>p27.48
(NA)
October
November
December
....
1967
January
February
March
....
April
May
June
ft>
r68.95
P70.75
(HA)
P13
^
U?
1968
January
February
March
a65!o5
.. .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by [j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "aT, anticipated; and "NA r not available.
41
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Lagging Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Minor
Economic Process
Unit Labor Costs
Year
and
month
MONEY AND CREDIT
Interest Rates on Business Loans
and Mortgages
Outstanding Debt
68. Labor cost (cur.
dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.),
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Index of labor
cost per unit of output, manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and
industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large
commercial banks
*67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 35 cities (u)1
118. Mortgage yields,
residential @
(Dollars)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1966
5.55
5.70
(NA)
6.00
5*82
(NA)
6.32
6.45
6.30
6.51
6.58
6.63
B>6l3i
(NA)
6.81
6.77
99.3
99.8
99.9
67,920
68,458
69,107
53,255
53,747
54,522
100.7
100.4
101.0
69,638
70,131
70,680
55,118
56,134
57,874
100.8
101.8
102.1
71,244
71,846
72,321
59,380
59,014
59,381
0.693
102.3
103.1
103.0
72,701
73,145
73,466
59,911
r60,042
59,732
January
February . .
March
0.711
104.8
105.3
105.6
73,746
73,962
74,226
60,754
60,525
61,167
6a3
6.62
6.46
6.35
April
May
June
0.713
105.4
106.0
106.8
74,439
74,632
74,924
62,407
61,898
63,341
5.95
6.29
6.44
6.51
§£> 0.722
106.6
107.0
|£>-rl08.G
75,149
75,493
75,777
64,352
62,944
63,309
5*.95
6.53
6.60
6.63
107.7
rl07.8
p!06.7
76,088
|t> 76,506
^ (NA)
r63,592
63,797
|£>p64»718
5*.%
January .
February
March
0.670
April
May
June
0.679
July . .
August
September
.
October
November
December
0.687
1967
July
August
September
October
November
December
(HA)
6.65
6.77
|> 6,81
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August.
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[[E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
> - Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
"""Prior to 1967, data are based on 19 cities and refer to the last month of the quarter.
42
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Major
Economic Process
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
Minor
Economic Process
Comprehensive
Retail Prices
Foreign Trade and Payments
81. Index of consumer prices @
Year
and
month
(1957-59 = 100)
89. Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (-) in U.S. balance
of payments
a. Liquidity
b. Official
balance basis
settlements
basis
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
86. Exports, excluding military
aid shipments,
total
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
861. Manufactur862. Index of
ers' new orders
export orders,
for export, durable nonelectrical
machinery
goods except
motor vehicles
and parts @
(Mil.dol.)
(1957-59 = 100)
87. General
imports, total
(Mil.dol.)
1966
January
February
March
in. 6
-651
-443
+324. Q
+366.1
+501.2
2,271.6
2,371.2
2,568.9
852
849
904
237
201
227
1,947.6
2,005.1
2,067.7
April
May
June
112.5
112.6
112.9
-122
-175
- +249.9
+348.3
+354.4
2,358.8
2,410.8
2,489.4
749
976
1,078
195
217
217
2,108.9
2,062.5
2,135.0
July
August
September
113,3
113.8
114*1
-165
-i- 861
+250.7
+339.0
+234.4
2,455.4
2,451.6
2,534.2
805
826
1,059
201
199 •
200
2,204.7
2,112.6
2,299.8
October . .
November
December
1967
January
February
March
114.5
114. 6
114.7
-419
-18
+319.7
+299. 8
+184.6
2,580.7
2,486.1
2,415.8
865
785
1,200
240
235
225
2,261.0
2,186.3
2,231.2
114.7
114. 8
115.0
r~529
r~l,815
r+360,4
w>378.1
r+348.5
r2,6l5.9
r2,607.3
r2,551.4
891
833
905
234
196
252
r2,255.5
r2,229.2
r2,202.9
Apri 1
May
June
115.3
115.6
116.0
r-547
r-828
iH-427.8
r+407.0
r+349.2
r2,653.8
r2,546.9
r2,576.5
772
1,029
1,043
215
220
218
r2, 226.0
r2,139.9
r2,227.3
July ....
August
September
116.5
116.9
117.1
r-636
r+470
r+376.1
r+422,8
r+434.2
r2, 584.1
r2,547.9
r2,642.7
875
841
905
219
230
'221
r2, 208.0
r2, 125.1
r2, 208.5
October
November
December
1968
January . . . .
February
March.. . .
117.5
117.8
118.2
(NA)
(HA)
r+190.8
1*316.5
+79.1
r2,392.3
r2,692.2
2,603.9
r796
p864
(HA)
272
P239
(IA)
r2,201.5
2,375.7
2,524.8
111.0
112.0
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
43
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series— Continued
Major
Economic Process
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Minor
Economic Process
Federal Government Activities
84. Federal
95. Federal
cash surplus (+)
surplus (+)
or deficit (-), or deficit (-) *
national income
and product
account
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
Year
and
month
1966
January
February
March
+2,2
82. Federal
83. Federal
cash receipts cash payments
to the public
from the
public1
101. National
defense purchases, current dollars
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil dol.)
(Mi Idol.)
92. Military
99. New
orders, defense prime contract
awards to
)roducts
U.S. business
ndustries
firms and
institutions
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
-12! 8
133*6
146.4
55!i
5,100
5,1^9
5,379
1,639
1,736
1,904
3.40
3.04
3. 38
2,940
2,850
2,913
(Bii.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
April
May
June
+3*2
+5.0
H3.4
143*4
58.4
6,444
5,447
7,084
2,109
1,620
2,415
3.30
2.91
3.68
3,359
3,061
3,724
July
August
September .
-0,7
~9.*9
149,* 6
158'.9
63.6
4,993
7,215
6,579
1,753
2,251
1,866.
3.50
3.16
4,67
4,016
3,170
3,530
October
November
December
~3*.3
-0.9
153^5
154.4
65*6
6,059
5,969
6,023
1,931
1,723
1,937
3.31
2,73
3.36
3,396
3,252
3,501
January
February
March
-rL*9
+1.7
156,' 7
155.0
70.2
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
2,85
3.33
.3,24
3,338
3,849
2,984
April
May
June
-14.* 7
+1."6
isi! i
152.5
72*. 5
6,211
7,896
7,170
1,715
.2,608
2,330
3.27
3.86
4.20
2,920
4,121
3,626
July
August
September
~13*.2
-19* 5
154! 6
173! 5
73! 3
5,357
6,953
7,814
1,435
1,907
3.64
2.84
3.71
3,610
3,686
3,665
-is!o
155^2
173*2
p74.*3
7,620
6,397
(MA)
r4.09
r3.14
p3.66
3,665
p3,329
(NA)
....
1967
October
November
December
(NA) ,
'
3,221
2,905
1,947
(NA)
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by (u). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Beginning -with 2d quarter 1966, data reflect graduated withholding of personal income taxes and change in schedule for
depositing withheld and OASI taxes.
44
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
U.S. Series Under Consideration
Major
Economic Process
UNCLASSIFIED INDICATORS
Minor
Economic Process
Unclassified Indicators
Year
and
month
1966
January
February
March
850. Ratio,
output to
capacity,
manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories to
sales, manufacturing and
trade
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders
to shipments,
manufacturers'
durable goods
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer goods
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Ratio)
855. Ratio,
nonagricultural
job openings
unfilled to
persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
856. Ratio,
average earnings
of production
workers in
manufacturing to
consumer prices
(1957-59 = 100)
857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing
(Percent)
r90*.5
1.43
1.45
1.42
3.21
3.28
3.25
117.9
119.1
119.7
0.053
0.133
0.145
0.150
113.4
113.7
113.2
7.*5
April
May
June
90.9
1.46
1.46
1.47
3.37
3.40
3.50
119.8
121.5
123.2
0.057
0.154
0.147
0.143
113.5
113.7
113.7
6^9
July
August
September
90.6
1.48
1.49
1.51
3.49
3.54
3.64
124.8
125.9
126.4
0.057
0.144
0.145
0.154
113.8
133.8
114.3
6^8
r90,0
1.52
1.54
1.54
3.67
3.67
3.62
125.4
125.9
126.1
0.066
0.150
0.154
0.141
114.1
114.0
113.9
6*9
January
February
March .
rp87.1
1.56
1.58
1.57
3.64
3.68
3.5S
126.3
127.7
125.8
0.073
0.139
0.130
0.131
114.3
115.1
114.8
6.* 5
April
May
June
rp84*.9
1.58
1.57
1.55
3.73
3.69
3.74
124,7
124.7
123.4
0,067
0.125
0.121
0.112
114.9
114.9
115.2
6.1
July
August
September
rp84.1
1.54
1.55
1.56
3.71
3.63
3.78
122.9
121.5
r!22.3
0.070
0.112
0.118
0.119
115.2
115.6
115.5
6. 4
October
November
December
p84.3
1.58
pi. 54
(NA)
3.88
r3.68
P3.52
rll9.7
r!22«0
p!20.0
pO.075
0.109
0.117
pO.120
115.3
rl!5.3
pl!5.6
(HA)
October . . .
November . .
December
1967
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
45
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Major
Economic Process
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES
Minor
Economic Process
Industrial Production Indexes
bed
47. United
States, index
of industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
121. OECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial production
126. France,
index of industrial production
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
128. Japan, in- 127. Italy, index
dex of industrial of industrial proproduction
duction
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59 =100)
(1957-59= 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59 =100)
1966
January
February
March
151
152
154
161
163
163
132
131
134
152
152
155
147
150
152
158
157
161
252
251
257
186
187
190
April
May .
June
154
155
156
164
163
163
132
130
130
153
153
154
151
151
154
160
159
161
261
265
267
187
196
195
July
August
September
157
158
,158 .
163
164
166
132
131
130
155
153
156
155
155
156
158
154
156
273
277
279
194
195
202
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
159
159
160
167
168
167
128
127
129
153
153
155
155
156
156
154
154
153
285
291
299
200
201
204
158
157
156
166
166
166
129
129
129
153
153
155
156
154
156
151
150
152
301
300
309
205
209
208
April .
May
June
156
156
156
168
167
168
130
128
129
155
154
155
153
152
156
150
151
151
312
315
323
210
212
212
July
August
September
157
158
157
169
170
170
r!29
rl29
128
156
154
r!57
156
156
rl60
156
rl52
r!56
323
327
337
r210
r!97
211
rl57
159
pl62
P169
p!28
(NA)
p!58
(NA)
160
pl60
(NA)
158
pl60
(MA)
r339
P347
(NA)
p2!6
(HA)
Year
and
month
.
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The ".r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•''Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
46
Table 2B
bed
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Major
Economic Process
CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES
Minor
Economic Process
Consumer Price Indexes
Year
81. United States,
index of consumer
prices (u)
133. Canada,
index of consumer
prices @
(1957-59 =100)
(1957-59 = 100)
132. United King136. France,
index of consumer
dom, index of
consumer prices® prices ©
135. West Germany, 138. Japan, index
index of consumer of consumer
prices ®
prices®
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices®
and
month
(1957-59= 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59=100)
1966
January
February
March
111
112
112
.
'
113
.114
114
'
-
.
. 124
124
•125
13?
13?
138
120
121
121
112
113
113-
115
115
116
126
127
12?
138
139
138
122
122
122
July..
August
September
113
114
114
116
116
117
12?
12?
12?
139
139
139
122
122
122
October
November
December
114
115
,115
11?
•117
11?
128
128
129
140
140
140
122
122
123
January
February ...... ...
March
115
115
115
' 117
11?
118
129
129
129
141
141
142
123
123
123
April
115
116
116
119
119
120
130
130
130
142
142
142
124
124
July
August
September
116
11?
11?
121
121
121
130
130
129
142
143
143
124
123'
123
October
November
December
11$
118
ll'B
121
121
p!22
129
p!31
(HA)
144
pl45
(NA)
p!23
(HA)
April
May
-
June
...
•
'
•
• .
146
14?
148
133
133
133
150
148
149
133
134
134
149
14S
150
134
134
134
"
.
.
151
150
••• -151 '
134
135
136
153
154 •
154
13?
138
138
1967
May
•
June.
•
. -
•
.
,
•
124
.
.
154
' • 153 \
152
138
138
139
152
*153
156
139
139
140
;
' ' 159 '
.' pl59
(HA)
. 140
p!40
(MA)
1968
January
February
March
April
May .
June
July
August.
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; y, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
47
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Major
Economic Process
HOCK PRICE INDEXES
Minor
Economic Process
Stock Price Indexes
19. United States,
index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks ®
143. Canada,
index of stock
prices®
142. United Kingdom, index of
stock prices ©
146. France, index
of stock prices @
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59= 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
January
February
March
189
188
180
192
191
186
173
178
174
127
April
May . .
June
186
176
174
190
182
July
August
September
October
November
December
Year
and
month
145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
index of stock
of stock prices ®
prices®
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59=100)
bed
147. Italy, index
of stock prices®
(1957-59-100)
1966
118
177
180
178
223
230
241
147
153
156
182
173
179
181
114
110
110
175
168
159
240
243
236
144
143
143
174163
158
180
171
162
173
154
152
108
108
102
149
150
154
231
230
226
146
147
145
156
164
165
158
162
166
150
147
151
101
107
103
151
147
148
224
221
218
149
147
144
January
February
March
171
177
181
175
180
182
157
156
159
99
103
98
148
156
159
223
229
228
142
141
127
April
May
June
184
188
185
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
98
158
155
154
223
231
231
129
132
130
July
August
September
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
94
99
110
156
175
182
231
215
209
129
133
139
October
November
December
194
188
193
192
188
189
196
203
200
109
106
p-103
p!82
pl93
213
206
p!97
p!98
143
139
p!35
p!91
p!90
p2QO
p!06
p212
p203
p!34
123
1967
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
48
Section TWO
\
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
charts and tables
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—27 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—77 industries
Profits—1,000 corporations
Sfock prices—77 industries
Industrial materials prices—7 3 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—22 industries
Retail sales—23 fypes of sfores
Nef sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Car/codings—79 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—78 industries
BASIC DATA AND DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
Chart 2
bed
JANUARY
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1968
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(July) [Aug.;
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Percent
Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 Indus.
Indus.-36 Indus.
MM.,
spaa— MI mm—
CB of NY, percent
1,000 mfg. corp. (1-Q span)
ommon stocks- 11 Indus.
prkas,
Industrial
D5.
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
prices-13 Indus, mtls
State
57
58
59
insur-47 artas (inverted)
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts I and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
51
Chart 2
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JANUARY
1968
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes
Percent
ale prim,
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
52
53
54
55
56
indus.
57
58
59
Current data for these series are shown on page 56.
span— 1-mo. span--
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 2
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JANUARY 1968
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) [Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.]
P
T
Series number and
date of survey
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
3d Q 1966-3d Q 1967
1st Q 1966-lst Q 1967
2d Q 1967-3d Q 1967
5?
58
Percent
Anticipated
Actual
D35, D36 (September 1967)
048 (December 1967)
D61 (November 1967)
1948
(May) [Feb.)
P T
59
1st Q 1967-lst Q 1968
1st Q 1967-lst Q 1968
4th Q 1967-lst Q 1968
80
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4, Current data for these series are shown on page 57.
53
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
bed
Leading Indexes
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1966
January
February
March
50.0
81,0
42.9
81.0
85.7
38.1
30.6
50.0
84.7
75.0
75.0
66.7
65
76
April
May
June
35.7
54. 8
33.3
50.0
45.2
40.5
41.7
50.0
51.4
72.2
58.3
59.7
62
47
July
August
September
19.0
66.7
64.3
23.8
0.0
9.5
50.0
59.7
37.5
55.6
44.4
41.7
29
47
October
November
December
35.7
38.1
9,5
9.5
14.3
14.3
50.0
44.4
55.6
36.1
31.9
27.8
59
35
1967
January
February
March
69.0
4,8
61.9
9.5
9.5
9.5
31.9
38.9
55.6
38.9
41.7
45.8
53
47
April
May
June
47.6
26.2
52.4
19.0
42.9
28.6
50.0
58.3
61.1
66.7
U7.1
r5.88
53
p47
July
August
September. . .
64.3
73.8
71.4
r76,2
P61.9
52.8
65.3
X
38.2
r86.8
*p88.2
P53
October
November
December
r28.6
r73.8
p26.2
X
r55.9
*73.5
*P64.7
X
X
(NA)
(NA)
1968
January
February
March
April
Mav
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Based on 34 industries.
54
bed
Table 3
ANALYTICAL
JANUARY 1968
MEASURES
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Leading Indexes-Continued
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(about 1,000 corporastocks (77 industries)® -1
(13 industrial materials)
tions)
Year
and
month
1-quarter span
1966
-
• '5V
,
April
May
June
-
;-.^:''iV r '?6.9.
July
August
September
'
'
;'
; -Hv3' . :
""' 6>«6
3.9
59
:
.
October
November
December
« »»
54
1967
January
February
March
4S
.
23,4*
'
3W"
6*5
.
3.9
'
50
;
\'M''H-% .* ;::^;;^;,;;46.2 -
'
* -- 22;ir;
-
-.
.
^ !^]f ^ |l»f Il|(lil||ffl!|^|
lllfflllifN
' ^ ^, <*$&$}.
xsv \, - t v
- - „ • • , ;, ,;;
;
-\ i\ x - v 5 % v - 5 ~ ' ^ s ; i
<; ' ,- ^y, - f,\,; ^i^^ ^ - J x
;
, ^ . ; oVoV • ' :" ^^$$&^ > ;. --:^;>23*4N
59.7
90.9
92.2
61,0
85,7
90,3
97.4
46.2
53.8
23.1
' 0*0
15*4 '
26.9
- 23.1
^ 61.5
, . 69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1 .
55.3 54- 3\
5$v3.
23.1
'34.0'
72,3 o; .
60.6
• as, 3
•
76,0
74,0
51.3
93,4
92.1
86,2
July
August
September
53
81,6
77.6
57.2
68,4
65. 8
(MA)
T^e^Vx^ \^ll4v4lT-*K^tv!;^l
—
47. 4: '
58. 4; "
66.2
25,3
45
,
v!!' ;/*jo.a
:
9-month span
MVW : ^;€^ 1
\ :!/":,53vlV:i
j
- - li;7, "; ^/r' S"42.3 - . ^
'^.-^CM -.^^«S»t^ %;>^: \r
• -6*r'; £-> ' ; 46..Z
Vi5*;4;< J" oYJ^Si^ !S:;g!|il^
yr^SSN^;^^
:
::;
' ^ = : 7*7.; .-X :/M^:VA?4*t- >-?; -v?
*-' -61.5
'WaJ
! : '9.*": :'': :
<,
7^7 : ^ l ^ f > V^feSiSrr ;;;^:-: ^ VB^rj
- 22.1 ^' ". ^ 26,9 '
;
n
:
' ; Q.O
:
W\l : ; ; • '- "
. , . 7.7-:" . ;vv: ^fc^^> ^ ^ \v\;9*^
:
April .
May
June
October
November
December
1-month span
\ 74Vo: / : ;^Kswl^' ^-;.c$-' V"'"'SS|
'. .' 48;7
'^--r^&i^s
'. - v.;-4£5 -:
;
:
:
;
9-month span
;
;
January
February
March
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
/
19.2
•> .
30.8
' . 57.7
30.8 .
53.S
19.2
32,2
7.9
71.1
46.2
46.2
61.5
0.0 ...
o.o- '
9'30.8
^
\ 4.6^8*
/
' ^T'^
- ; - ^ -17^0
:<:\::!;v;^yf;:
v
- • : "'- 27.7 '
" . 55,3':
\ i7.«l ; . - ' „ , &*5
.
. ;4S,a/
-
46* a .
. '
'
••
•
^a.5
• ''
31*9
. . 44.7^
- 29. 8 .
' - 78.7 •
.'•;
7S.7
3f*3
7*,*'46. S '
1968
January
February
March
S
3B,5
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no
adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
•'•Based on 77 components through June 1967 and on 76 components thereafter.
2
Average for January 18, 19, and 22.
55
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JANUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indexes
Year
and
month
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries) @
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month span
9-month span
1966
January
February
March
81,7
88.3
95.0
95.0
91.7
83.3
70.8
70.8
91.7
95.8
91.7
79.2
79.5
75.0
72.7
88.6
95.5
93.2
76.1
65.2
60.9
82.6
84.8
78.3
April
May
June
80.0
75.0
93.3
81.7
81.7
73.3
72.9
62.5
75.0
75.0
79.2
66.7
70.5
86.4
75.0
95.5
95.5
86.4
43,5
30.4
95.7
78.3
82.6
78.3
July
August
September
56.7
78.3
35.0
76.7
73.3
73.3
50.0
75.0
43.8
75.0
66.7
66.7
72.7
54.5
47.7
72.7
72.7
63.6
47.8
47.8
60.9
76.1
65.2
82.6
October
November
December
81.7
76.7
70.0
85.0
65.0
65.0
72.9
56.2
50.0
66.7
45.8
33.3
63.6
63.6
54.5
63.6
72.7
72.7
43.5
69.6
41.3
87.0
78.3
82.6
January
February
March
71.7
43.3
43.3
55.0
41.7
43.3
25.0
25.0
39.6
41.7
29.2
25.0
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
39.1
43.5
69.6
91.3
95.7
April
May
June
40.0
41.7
71.7
38.3
41.7
36.7
43.8
25.0
56.2
33.3
43.8
47.9
47.7
56.8
50.0
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
82.6
87.0
91.3
r56.5
July
August
September
53.3
58.3
35.0
r48.3
r75.0
p70.0
58.3
66.7
41.7
r58.3
66.7
p70.8
63.6
65.9
75.0
72.7
81.8
81.8
43.5
60.9
76.1
r73.9
p69.6
October
November
December
r75.0
93.3
p71.7
1967
r52.1
83.3
p87.5
•
72.7
77.3
90.9
r37.0
r65.2
p32.6
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table 4
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @.
56
Table 3
bed
JANUARY
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35. Net sales, manufactures D36. New orders, durable manu(800 companies)®
factures (400 companies) ©
Year
and
month
4- quarter span
Actual
1966
January
February
March
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (18 industries)
4- quarter span
1- quarter span
4- quarter span
Anticipated
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
Actual
'
April
May
June
July
August.
September
October
November
,
December
1967
January
February
March
April . .
May
June
048. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups) ©
...
July
August
September
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
*87
*91
*85
*89 "..
57^9
84,2
4-21
*84
*83
*82
*83
52.6
78,9
*+l
72
*84
*68
*82
42.1
78.9
-50
*72
*84
*67
*8Q
(NA)
52.6
-91
'TO
'82
*65
*78
78^9
-131
'si
(NA)
*78 ,
73.7
r-91
'so
73.7
(NA)
*82
.-
Anticipated
83.3
62.5
83.3
71.9
55*6
37,5
75.0
65.6
55.6
50.0
30.6
41.7
33.3'
44.4
(NA)
50.0
p63.9
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
57
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JANUARY
1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data and Direction of Change
1967
Diffusion index components
May
July
June
October1"
September
August
December p
November
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING I
(Average weekly hours)
[
All manufacturing industries
4-
(26)
40.3
(52)
4.2.0
40.1 o
40.1 ,4.
41.1 440.6 o
41.3
42.3
39.9 441.7
41.1
39.5
41.2
40.1
40.3
41.3
40.6
41.2
42.0
40.0
41.2
41.0
39.4
+
40.6 438.3 440.5 _
35.9
42.5 438.3 O
41.? 442.6 o
40.9 437.7 4-
41.0
39.0
40.4
35.7
42.6
40.3
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
4-
4-
44-
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
o
o
o
o
38.3
41.3
42.6
41.2
37.9
40.4
(64)
4-
4-
+
+
41.8
39.9
40.2
41.3
40.9
41.3
4-
42.1
_
o
+
+
O
_
444O
444-
40.3
41.4
41.0
39.2
40.6
38.4
40.6
35.9
42.7
38.3
41.5
42.8
40.6
38.4
_
O
44444+
+
+
+
44_
_
O
O
44-
40.7
(74)
4-
41.9
39.7
40.2
41.6
41.0
41.5
42.2
40.4
42.5
41.2
39.4
4-
40.8
38.9
41.0
35.8
42.6
38.3
41.5
43.1
42.0
38.3
40.8
40.7
(71)
(29)
42.4
40.5
40.7
42.0
41.0
41,8
42.7
40.2
42.7
41.2
39.5
444-
o
4440
4-
o
_
_
4_
4_
_
_
41.0
38.0
41.4
36.3
42.8
4_
44+
4_
—
O
38.3
41.5
42.4
41.9
38.9
O
O
4-
O
+
0
o
40.7
(74)
41.7
40.5
40.4
41.8
41.3
41.4
42.3
40.5
41.5
41.1
39.4
4-
r42.0
r41.3
r40.5
r42.2
r41.6
r41.5
r42.4
r40.5
r39.7
r41.1
r39.7
40.7
39.0
41.3
35.8
42.8
38.0
41.5
43.0
41.9
38.7
4_
444444O
O
4-
44O
44—
_
4-
r40.8
r38.2
r41.5
36.4
r42.8
38.3
r41.9
r42.9
r41.8
r39.5
4-
40.8
(26)
41.6
40.9
40.5
41.6
41.7
41.3
42.3
40.2
41.6
41.2
39.4
_
0
_
4—
«.
44_
40.7
36.5
41.8
36.2
43.2
38.2
41.8
42.7
41.7
38.5
_
4_
4„
^
_.
^
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
———~—
All durable goods industries
4-
23,857
?4,263
23,715
(58)
(61)
(53)
3,606
2,020
3,591
1,886
4-
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals.
-f
4-
-f-
4-
4-
4-
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
_^
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
4-
1,979
3,590
427
4-
429
4-
571
226
,_
+
4-
598
217
_
r3*758
p2,06l
44-
269
4-
4-
455
1,056
(NA)
(NA)
4-
_
44.
+
44.
4-
4-
3,588
3,679
-
309
4-
302
4-
668
327
32,379
4-
•f
681
203
4-
>3,869
4-
4-
4-
4-
/»!•*>
(NAJ
44-
p693
P215
4,
(HA)
(NA)
•f
44-
298
302
(NA)
p381
4-
622
240
4-
44-
(65)
4-
2,246
2,009
4-
299
4-
4-
3,945
_
+
!
4,
2,254
4-
44-
4-
4 - 2 3,111
(74)
4,
4-
251
1,905
4-
44-j.
2
(56)
3,467
3,612
1,971
4-
+
633
197
4-
2
(38)
4- r 23,843
4.
4-
3,564
_
+
3,470
1,794
2
44-
4-
_
4-
404
_
>3,381
4-
4-
3,497
(65)
>3,416
4-
4-
4-
1,994
23,726
4-
2,108
2,106
3,646
+
o
313
+
•P294
4-
+
-f
4>
(NA)
4*
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) == unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
•^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted "by source agency.
2
Based on 34 components.
58
Table 4
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JANUARY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1-Continued
(Mi II ions of dollars)
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment!
Electronic components.
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft!
Aircraft partsf
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments total
Lumber total
Furniture total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods, total
3,250
4-
779
44-
3,455
3,579
883
733
773
733
+
4-
+
4-
3,640
3', 554
794
638
4-
44
4-
4-
804
889
o
44-
444-
4-
!
...
4-
MA
MA
4
4-
4-
4-
(NA)
4-f
p6 544
r5 , 769
MA
Mfi
MA
Mft
4-
44-
44-
4-
44
(NA)
/,T . \
(NA)
4-
r6 241
MA
MA
44-
p647
764
4-
-f
4-
»..
4-
44-
4+
4-
+
4-
6,019
5,950
4~
4-
p730
4-
6,697
7,327
4
p3»399
r659
4-
7,209
+
999
4-
4-
44~
4-
r3,473
4-
4-
+
4~
4-
4-
4-
44
4-
4-
4-
4-
-f
4-
4-f.
44-
1
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 -10)
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobi les
Radio and television broadcasters
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
4-
92.59
91.43
(74)
(51)
4-
93.01
4,
(82)
;
94.49
(78)
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4
4-
4-
95,66
(32)
(57)
4-
4-
95.81
92,66
4-
95.30
(71)
44-
44,
44-
4-
4-
(8)
4-
4~
+
4.
4-
44-
4~
4~
4,
44.
44.
4.
4
4"
4.
4*
4.
4,
4-
4-
4.
4-
4-
4-
4-
44.
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4*
4.
4-
44.
«
44>
4-
4-
„
4-
4-
4-
44-
4,
4.
4"
4-
4-
4-
4-
4.
4.
4-
44.
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.
^•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 76 components beginning -with July 1967.
59
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JANUARY
1968
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
May
July
June
August
September
October
November
January1
December
D23, INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59=100)
~
- '99*6 4.
99.8 *.
93.3 «.
98.1 »
97. a
*
97.7
4-
99.1 4
.100,1 ~
99.6
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.).
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zincflb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
4
-f
4
. .
44444-
(62)
(69)
(31)
'*368
.366
.371
.065
.064 +
.065 *
28,261 4- 29.016
27.451
1,528 41.550
1,557
'. . .142
.142
.141
.145
»H5 4,
,141 4.21? 4~
.219 4,
.223
.193 4.193
.194
1.677
1.646
1.663 -f
.166
.152
.157 410.721 4- 10.872
10.753
.201 4,
,209
.214
,050
.052
.051
4
4-
44
4
44-
(54)
.385
.064
27.195
1.528
.1,41
.139
.231
.193
1,603
.152
10,971
.200
,.052
4-'
4
O
(19)
.382
.062
30,174,
1.456
*.14G
.134
.237
.193
1.588
.152
10.971
.195
.050
4-
44.
4.
44-
(46)
• .385 4
,062
28,756 4
1.486 4.140
,135;
' .239 4.
.192 4>
1.591
.153 4
,10,949
.185
.049
(62)
(46)
.452 4- . ,473
,060
.061
29.723
29.774
1.510 4.
1.547
.139
.139 4*
.132
.133
4
.275
.254"
.195
.193, 4*'
1.523' 4
1.553
.167
.159 410,938
10,894
,171 V
.177
.046
,044
(38)
4-
4-
44-
4-
,500
V .060
- 29.56G
1.503
.139
.129
,262
,198
1,575
.164
10.839
.168
.044
05. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims ...
4
Northeast region:
Boston (6)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (22) . . . .
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9).
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19).
Milwaukee (17)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (18)
Baltimore (12).
Dallas (15)
Houston (14).
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24) .
San Francisco (7)
Seattle (16)
234
4-
(54)
Percent rising of 47 components
225
;
(55)
:
4
4
265 -f
211
(34)
4
4
,
203
(38)
4
4.
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
44
4-
4
4,,
4
4-
4
4-
44-
. *'«
4
4-
4
~
4~
4
4-
4-
4-
4-
4.
4
4
4
4.
4
4-
44
-f
4
44.
4-
4-
4
4
4
4*-
4-
4
4
4
4
4
4
^
4
4
4
4
4-
...
*. *
4
4-
4
4
4-
4
4
4-
4
44
4-
4
44
-f-
4-
4.
4
4.
4
4
4-
4
+
197
(47) ;
4-
4
4
, 194
(74)
44
4-
4
4-
4-
200 -~
(61)
(72)
.
4-
4-
44
4
4-
...
4-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (-1-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised,
1
Average for January 18, 19, and 22.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank.
2
60 FRASER
Digitized for
bed
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JANUARY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
May
June
July
August
Octoberr
September
November
December?
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagri cultural establishments
.
0
Percent rising of 30 components ..........
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mi II products...
Apparel and related products . . .
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing..
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Servi-ce and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
. o
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
65,639 4.
(42)
65,903
147
50?
375
495
1,042
1,041
1,373
1,284
1,361
287
342
4
4
149
512
371
498
1,037
1,048
1,372
1,251
1,377
285
340
1,196
74
835
1,235
525
672
580
117
354
305
4
617
3,192
4,267
3,549
10,060
3,205
9,987
2,698
8,826
4
-f
4.
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
O
4
4
4
4
4
4
4-
(72)
1,201
75
841
1,239
535
673
583
119
362
302
619
3,187
4,266
3,555
10,093
3,227
10,035
2,747
8,889
65,939
4
(53)
4
O
4
0
4
4
4.
4
O
0
4
4
4
0
O
4
4
4
4
151
5GS
366
498
1,023
1,041
1,368
1,265
1,326
285
339
1,185
76
834
1,220
536
674
585
119
362
295
623
3,231
4,292
3,555
10,092
3,234
10,074
2,759
8,910
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
O
4
4
O
4
4
O
4
4
4
66,190
66,055
4-
(58)
(35)
155
509
369
497
1,024
1,048
1,375
1,290
1,410
285
337
154
508
370
494
1,003
1,023
1,365
1,260
1,297
281
336
4
1,175
69
842
1,218
527
669
585
120
407
300
4
1,148
72
839
1,223
534
673
585
118
401
299
606
3,223
4,283
3,569
10,095
3,253
10,130
2,746
8,967
4
4
4
O
4
4.
4
4
4
4
4
-
601
3,238
4,262
3,565
10,154
3,264
10,161
2,715
8,953
66,243 +
(75)
4
4
4.
4
4
4
4
4
4
4>
4
O
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
1,185
70
847
1,223
531
669
594
121
408
303
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
O
4
4
4
67,128
(72)
(93)
157
513
374
500
1,009
1,024
1,329
1,270
1,289
283
335
597
3,236
4,251
3,567
10,209
3,270
10,199
2,712
9,033
66,929 4.
r!5B
r515
r377
r507
r 1,032
rl,G41
*1,373
rl,291
rl,379
r284
r336
4
rl,187
r77
849
r 1,232
r533
r673
r594
,
122
r4!2
r307
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
O
4
4
O
162
520
382
512
1,028
1,047
1,333
1,295
1,398
286
342
1,196
70
858
1,235
535
673
595
121
413
307
r597
r3,299
r4,288
r3,599
0
4
no ,310
o
4
4
4
r3,290
rlO,301
r2,698
r9,129
4
597
3,350
4,289
3,596
10,314
3,302
10,335
2,692
9,184
4-
r!59.3
4
161.6
O
,4
4
4
4
4
4
0
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59=100)
All industrial production
155.6
Percent rising of 24 components2
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals. . .
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products .
Machinery, except electrical ....
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
0
4
4
181.7
178.9
167.5
185.3
4
(56)
(25)
128.9
160.8
155.6
4
O
4
12916
160.8
4
181.3
172.4
169.3
184,1
4
4
4
156.6
158.1
156.8
156,6
(58)
(67)
(42)
(52)
129*6
159.8
129.3
159.1
129.2
r!58.1
182,*6
183.2
171.9
183.2
182,1
182.4
159.2
183.1
. 182.2
177,1
170.8
182.9
4
4
4
4
4
4
O
4
4
4
(88)
(83)
133.! 6
158,1
4
4.
rl34.8
rl59.6
177.2
182.8
159.3
183.2
4
4
180,9
186.3
rl65.7
rl85.4
4
4
4
4
4.
4
4
4
0
134*8
115.6
133.5
114.9
166.* 5
158.1
166." 3
156.7
4
4
134*1
115.5
4
162*. 7
155,4
4
136*9
109.2
164*8
154.9:
4
4
4
4
138*4: 4 :
rlH.3; 4
166*3
156.4
4
139*7
117.0
4
166*6
155.0
4
4
r!42.3
p!21,5
4
168*. 0
r!54.8:
4
4
142
161
180
187
177
186
137
145
(NA)
171
155
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p - preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
61
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
JANUARY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
May
June
July
August
October
September
November
December
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather ..............
o • 137. a ~
Textile mill products* .........
4 142:6 ~
Apparel products
105.0 4.
Leather and products* ..................
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing.
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages.
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
4
141.9rfU5*£.. If ' >H7.3"
»U6.4
. .W)
'. P&09.6
.•(HUN
136.6 4*
144,2 4.
103.0 4,
138.7
146.4
106.5-
4
4
4-' ,
141.3
rl46,S,
108.4
4
«
4
149,0
148.3
152.8'
U8.6-'
4
152,9
-145.4
'4
...
4
201.0
132. 8
170.1
200.7
133*2
203.1
4,
4'
202.3
'137.0
-202.4'
4
131*7
'121.4
*.
"131,2
'4 •
'.
136.6
142.4
105.4
4
4
151,4' 4 151*6
4 ' 147. B
147,4
199*6 . •f . 199.9
132,1' 4,' 134.4
165.7 4 166.9
4_:
<pl43
CIA) '
4
"(w):,-
«*H
, |5l51:
,CiA)
4'-
•
_«.
4
132,0
131.9
117*4 4- . 123.9
•f.
120.1 4
117*5 4
4-
131.5
123*6
4
4-'
w
4
4.
4 •
122*5'
'•121*6
4.
122.6*
4
129.1
4
117.2 *
131.2
133.9
133.3
«~
4
119.7 ,
133.7
**•"
4",
105.7
136.6
'
120.2
*.
115.5
M27U5
•w
rl54.2 '4-" &156; 2*:
rl44. 3 - 4 *145*9 -
-
'«.
bl32.2'
w.,
•'**'¥
_
132.9 ' 4
129.3 4
»*
-w
:r9$.6
136,5-
V,
4
4..
r203»7
r!36,4
p!96.1 '
**' /
c. '
*195.3
3206; 7xt37.T
-4-.
*130.S
$31.*'
4-
pl9S
(HA)
; GfA)
Cm)
"«»
aia.o
;pi47
•4:'
(HA)
pl31'
- (»A)
c»4
--(14} "
pl!6
.112*3-. 4, ii$*''3- •;4.
*124.2: '4-' rl26.4" '«,- -- -,p!25 •
4 - - ' : ' 'p!24
* *-«'•; :«4)
r93*$ *»,. -f93*l>
.(»)
•3,32.9 4 ';- >139.4 '
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries
4
106.3
4
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
104*2
100 »$;
103, S
103.2
118.9 '
105,1
113.7
113,2 '
106. S
4
(50)
(57)-
Durable goods:
4
Lumber and wood products
4Furniture and other household durables. «
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
0
Nonferrous metals
4*
Fabricated structural metal products. •
Miscellaneous metal products
4
General purpose machinery and eQuipment. ..... 4
Miscellaneous machinery
4
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
O
Miscellaneous products
O
106.6
4
€
4
4- ;
O-
10&9'- •4.
io&v9 ;
lbl;6'
1Q&0-- 4 / ' -
4
100.8
103,9
103.3
4
4
-
105.3
100.9
104*2
103.4
4
,
118.6
105.1
if
'
113. a
,'
dl3»2.
109.1
-101. 7-V
1
4
4>
O
ioi.3
|01,'4 ;
109.-6 -
4." •
109.7
106. a ; 4{66}
(64)
104.7
116,7- •
104*9
3kl3.7 !'
113*1 '
109.1101* E
o i
106,1
4
4
101.0
4 ''
104*5
103.5
118.9
105.5
114.2
113,6
109.4 lQl.6
101.3
110.0
4
4
4
4
4
4
0>
4 /
4
4
Hh
4*
10^,7 '
101*2 ::
104"* 7
107*1 -:
4*
-
107^3 '
101.7'
4'
106*7 : 4~
i02,0- - 4'io5vi-c; ;
''- J04*-| : 4
107.6
102.1
t05.3/
104.7
10S*9;'- 4; '
;
;
119*4 4 IM*7 - '*''."'• 'is^ 4 ,' 123.7
105*6 ' 4 : 1O5*? ' ; J?'- ' , 10#.9-;- 4. ';'- 106.1 '
114.1 o- - 114*1'' '0 '- "• SU*l '• 4" 1M.4
|;1'4.7>; 4 ' 11^*2
114*0 4',,, ri4;'4
*_t*^«*t, / . 4
109;7 ' 4 ~ .109*f- .4 ' '" %MM't *i*-\-' JL10.S
101.5 0 ' ' 'XQSUJb' '$•'',*• 5&i&< 4 '": ' 102,3 101.5 • 4 '' :-3:0305' :'-$ ::':'•-'" ttiifc. .^C ' ' 104*0
f
4 ',' li&^i '#& 110*7
110*2 •• '<¥, ' " .,iiO-^'
*'",%r,;,/'
^^/^-^ f v * ;
104.0-'
:
4 '•• 104*9r 4/
:
;
;
4r'
;
4
4
:
4
4
•'''^/;""!^'^
iia-6:^
113*1.;' .^ » ' iiaa
:
9CS
; ?ev9"
4
110*7 . 4- "/=
4-' --
^99*7
ioo;3"i;05ri/;] •4-- '. 10^,2 '•• '4 '/" 103*3"
:
'W' ;^;S" *
'6&3h'
' JJ5.5'
:
:
«. *' '4/'
0,, ;/
o ;'
4-' -
.4' • ,'
».<
'
102*9
107.6
(91)
' I?*)-
4- ,
107.2,' 4
'•(77');/
1
(75) J
4
4
107*1" ^ o
4 =4.
*,
na*'¥/':
,'99*2- '
•tie "•'
i02;'?'-'> *•<•
ii&&
;^ir 4.^
::
;;
Rali.5 -
*»!?' ' "-.'
•^sv
:
W-'; ' "'
Id^^; ^4^ |j^*a'
fe '
W,2 '
#'.^ ?iJB*i*-/as,>." *?' «r» - ¥;^
¥)f 3fl^**>
l@?3f •»??
' ."i;^
4
'
''
&;rv,
104*0
»f,
;
3&;ft*
^f{'i',
104%
!''•
ioi&i
1^9^'
i:$
;
f
%^
«tf•
:^^»-.^j
'^4"'
/r'-*,*, -^*5'.'
•.£&#'
•
.
97;*
i
'W*®
'
i.9«i?'
r/
^:=f
r.
'
4- "\ a&4;6
I
^
I
I
mK^'
103;7;;PJil-- '^' -- toj.l
'*-99i^
103'-; ^'-j
„,//
s
;
y
t&&m
^>*- i^J5.:"-<&&' $t'/' - '-9JN&' 0 '' 9J*« • W •'"',*, :• 9 7i'& 4
•^: '
114U- O-/- 1144^
J35A4T: _^'v IS*$- '^/'- ? i|^?;;
K2 IP^,;
-C":
i06 ;3'- ' 4>/ v 106.7
4%
185*9.
4"' - 107.1'' 4 ; ' 107.3
4 ".
4/ '
1Q7*;;
4"
HP
,*l'>
%i',
"^
4" '-;•'
*^'
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Digitized
62 for FRASER
Table 4
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JANUARY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1967
Diffusion index components
May
July
June
August
Octoberr
September
November
Decemberp
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
25*89?: 4
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places.
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . .
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel , accessory stores
4,
4
4
26,544
26,444
(35)
(83)
(44)
5,50? 44
2>G33 4
2,2S3 4•
215 4•
504 4
5,54$
4
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores • •
Household appliance TV radio stores ..........
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores.
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers. ...... -f
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations. ................... 4Drug and proprietary stores.
Liquor stores.
..«.
Jewelry stores
.\ 4
5,500
o
2,059
2,3??
228
516
4
4-
2,071
2,305
236
506
4*
44.
326
596
244
7Q*?
77^
4
4
4
4
1,996
903
598
4
4>
4
44
-
5,516
4
2,094
2,341
222
516
4
4~
(76)
4
2,110
4
2,354
'
239
516
4
O
5,543
-» '
• *.
4
2,104
.2,321
250
- ' 508
450
754
260
340
605
241
4
250
781
424
76?
258
40
397
771
260
4
*~
-
4-,
—
4,814
316
2,020
903
580
2,040
923
599
4
4
4.
44
4
4
4
~
4,731
322
4
4
2,003
913
597
4
4
»
4
4
322
60?
30?
575
25?
812
450
789
252
254
771
423
786
'252
44.
4
4
~
4
4^
4.
4
-.
4,750
319
>
4,
4*
4
4
44
4
4
4
(37)
5,535 ,4 .
4
332
594
4
4,448
304
4- •
4
4
246
420
?50
251
(61)
26,0^
26,732
4
4.
31?
58$
26,422 4.
«,
O
4
«.
4,891
333
4
2,028
901
599
4
4
4
r26,46? .. 26,343
(65)
(33)
p5,600
(HA)
-«
p2>139 «.
p2,369
p239 p533
o
p31S p569 p245 «.
(MA)
(HA)
(NA)
(MA)
(MA)
(MA)
(HA)
4
r$7QZ
4
(HA)
4
P450
p774
p247
4.
(HA)
(NA)
(HA)
_
«.
_
4,361
346
44
2,015
912
600
4
.*.
-w
4
4
«
4
p4^366
p365
p2,077
p924
p595
4
«.
4.
(HA)
(HA)
(HA)
(NA)
(HA)
4
4-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+)= rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
63
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882
May 1885
April 1888
May. 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
(x)
18
8
32
15
65
30
22
46
15
34
36
(x)
(x)
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895 .
June 1899
September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
1§
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926 .
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
4-5
36
40
64
63
88
35
41
34
93
93
Z5
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960 . .
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 . .
10 cycles, 1919-1961 . .
4 cycles, 1945-1961...
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
149
54
3
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961 . .
8 cycles, 1919-1961 . . .
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . .
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
.
2
*46
48
42
5
6
NOTE: Underscored figgres are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
25
2
cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
4
4
cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
7
6
cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning inSelected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
30.
38
6
10.
29.
Dec. '60
' 61
'61
'61
'61
'60
Apr.
Mar.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
Apr.
May
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
Sep.
'54
' 54
'54
'53
'54
'53
Apr.
July
July
June
Apr.
Jan.
'49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
(NSC) May ' 24 Jan. '21
'49 Apr. '38 Mar. '33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
'49 Dec. '37 Dec. '32 May ' 27 July '24 Dec. '20
Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
IstQ
Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
IstQ
'58
'58
'57
'58
Nov.
Feb.
Sep.
4thQ
'53
'54
'53
'53
Apr.
June
June
2ndQ
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'49
'49 June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
' 49 Apr. '38 June ' 32
'49 2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 2ndQ '21
Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . Jan .
Jan.
Index of net business formation
New orders durable goods industries ...... Jan.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Mar.
New building permits, private housing units. . Dec.
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23 Industrial materials prices
19. S^ock prices 1500 common stocks
16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113 Change in consumer installment debt
'60
'60
'60
'61
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 May '49 Dec. '37 Apr. '32 Aug. '27 June '24 Mar. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Jan . ' 49 Feb. '38 Feb. '32
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments. Feb. '61 May ' 58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
May ' 61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 May '33
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
(NSC)
(NSC)
4thQ '21
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
IstQ '61 IstQ '58 2ndQ ' 54 2ndQ ' 4 9 ^ IstQ '38 3rdQ '32
47.
52.
816
54
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retai 1 stores
Feb. '61
(NSC)
Jan. '61
Apr. '61
Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.
'58
'58
'58
'58
Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.
'54 Oct. '49 May
'54 July '49 May
'54 Oct. '49
(NSC) May
'54
'38
'38 x
(NA)
'38
July '32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
Mar. '33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2 n d Q ' 2 1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
Mar. '33
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)
July '61 Aug. '58
Oct. '54 Nov. '49
(NA)
3rdQ '38
3rdQ '58 IstQ '55
4thQ '49
Mar. '61 Aug. '58 Oct. '54
Dec.^ '49
(NA)
Sep. '61 June ' 59
July '50
June '40
2ndQ '61
(NSC)
July '58
Sep. '55
Oct. '54 Aug. '49 Dec. '38
4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55
IstQ '50
3rdQ '41
(NA)
IstQ '33
(NA)
July '33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NA)
4thQ '27
(NA)
(NA)
3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
Feb. '28 Nov. '24
(NA)
Apr.
'22
(NA)
Sep. '22
NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as
the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent
business cycles.
NA= Not available.
66
NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS-Continued
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries, . .
38 Index of net business formation
6. New orders durable goods industries
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . .
29. New building permits, private housing units. .
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23 Industrial materials prices
19. Stock prices 500 common stocks
16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113 Change in consumer installment debt
June
July
Apr.
Apr.
Sep.
Nov.
' 59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'55 Mar. '53
'55 Feb. '53
'55 Sep. '52
' 5 5 Jan. '53
'56 May ' 51
'55 Nov. '52
Dec.
Nov.
July
2ndQ
'59
'59
'59
'59
Apr.
Dec.
July
4thQ
'56
'55
'56
'55
June '59
Aug. '59
Oct. '55
Mar. '55
(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NA)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '46
(NSC) Nov. '25 Jan. '23
Aug. '4-8 Dec. '36
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '4.8
Oct. '4.7 Feb. '37 Feb. '28 July '25 Jan. '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '19
(NA)
(NA)
'53 July '4-6
'51 Jan. '48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29
'53 June ' 48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'53 2ndQ '48 4thQ '36 3rdQ '29
(NA)
Nov. '25
(NSC)
3rdQ '26
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
Mar. '23 July '19
(NA)
2ndQ '23
Jan. '51 June ' 48 Mar. '37 July '29
Dec. '52 Mar. '48 Mar. '36 May ' 29
Sep. '26
(NA)
June '22 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NA)
Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
2ndQ
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments* Apr. '60 Mar. '57 June ' 53 Sep. '48 July '37 Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Feb. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Jan. '48 July '37
43. Unemployment rate total (inverted)
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
IstQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (0)
47.
52
816.
54.
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores
Jan. '60 Feb. '57 July '53 July '48 May ' 37 July '29
(NSC) Aug. '57 Oct. '53 Oct. '48 June '37 Aug. '29
(NA)
(NA)
Jan. '60 Feb. '57 July '53 Aug. '48
(NSC) Sep. '37 Sep. '29
Apr . • 60 Aug. '57 Mar. '53
Mar. '27
2ndQ '26
(NA)
(NSC)
May ' 23 Feb. '20
(NA)
IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) July '20
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (0)
' 60
Sep. '57
Oct. '53
Jan. '49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
2ndQ '60
3rdQ '57
3rdQ '53
4thQ '48
3rdQ '37
2ndQ '29
4thQ '26
2ndQ '23
2ndQ '20
July '60
Sep. '57
Sep. '53 Feb. '49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Nov. '48
Dec. '37
(NSC)
(NSC)
May
(NSC)
Sep. '57
July '53
Aug. '48
Sep. '37
(NA)
(NA)
4thQ '59
4thQ '57
4thQ '53
2ndQ '49
(NSC)
Oct. '29
Oct. '26
Oct. '23 Nov. '20
(NA)
(NA)
Oct. '23 Feb. '21
NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as the
peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA = Not available.
NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
67
Appendix COVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part L^Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Average duration of run
(ADR)
w
Cl
1
c
T/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Cl
1
C
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, mfg . . • .Jan. '53-Aug. '67-.
*3Q. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 • •
Jan, '53-June '67-.
2 Accession rate manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . .
unemployment insurance
3
*38.
13
*6
94
Layoff rate manufacturing • •
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders durable goods industries
Construction contracts value
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-June '67..
'53-Sep. '65..
'53-Sep. '65 . .
'53-Sep. '65 . .
'53-Sep. '65..
.46
1.83
4.63
.41
1.34
4.38
.19
1.09
1.43
2.18
1.23
3.05
3
2
4
.73
.63
.79
2.19
2.11
2.19
1.48
1.52
1.49
9.72
7.24
12.36
4.02
3.97
3.70
4.95
4.38
2.17
2.02
2
.95
1.69
1.42
12.67
3.97
9.25
.79
2.49
3.76
6.64
8.41
.60
2.18
3.33
6.38
3.26
.53
1.00
1.51
1.55
2.58
1.15
2.18
2.20
4.12
3
2
3
3
5
.85
.66
.78
.66
.87
2.16
2.71
1.92
1.81
1.55
1.48
1.63
1.63
1.58
1.52
7.86
6.61
7.24
8.44
8.00
4.75
4.08
3.19
4.41
3.15
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries . .Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
9. Construction contracts, commercial
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
and industrial, floor space
May '59-June '67 . .
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
4.69
4.18
4.39
3.81
1.43
1.52
3.08
2.51
4
3
.84
.88
1.88
1.83
1.71
1.60
9.50
10.86
3.39
3.41
9.30
7.30
9.17
7.10
.97
1.18
9.41
6.04
6
6
t1)
t1)
1.60
1.60
1.48
1.55
12.67
16.83
3.00
2.67
Jan. '53-June '66. .
3.70
3.31
1.30
2.54
3
.82
1.87
1.55
12.38
3.06
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
6.46
5.24
2.84
1.85
3
.76
2.37
1.62
7.60
3.57
Jan. '53-Sep, '65 . .
5.27
4.77
1.98
2.41
3
.77
1.88
1.63
8.94
3.49
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
7.47
5.79
4.00
1.45
2
.95
3.17
1.85
8.94
3.77
Jan. '53-Sep. '65.,
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Oct. '66..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Dec. '65. .
1.31
2.49
.62
18.74
2.63
1.04
1.68
.51
18.24
2.42
.73
1.64
.27
1.70
.95
1.41
1.02
1.93
10.72
2.55
2
2
3
6
3
.99
.57
.92
t1)
.80
2.49
2.37
2.62
1.49
1.85
2.11
1.58
1.70
1.39
1.57
11.69
9.50
5.69
8.94
8.44
3.87
3.97
4.18
2.23
4.17
3.12
3.00
.44
.31
.35
1.77
1.87
.31
.14
.29
2.34
2.30
.31
.27
.21
.76
.81
1.00
.52
1.42
1
1
2
1
2
.76
.81
.51
.52
.75
3.27
3.10
2.98
5.00
2.09
1.70
1.39
1.52
1.61
1.55
9.82
8.94
12.85
19.44
27.83
3.27
3.10
5.03
5.00
4.05
*29 New building permits private housing
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
*23. Industrial materials prices
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing.
14. Liabilities of business failures
39 Delinquency rate installment credit loans
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
301 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
46. Help-wanted advertising
511 Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
*41 Employees in nonagricultural establishments
42 Total nonagricultural employment
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
*43 Unemployment rate total
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate State programs
40 Unemployment rate married males.
Jan. '53-Dec. '66. .
3.94
3.05
2.16
1.41
2
.72
2.53
1.44
7.95
4.05
Jan. '53-Sep. '65. .
Nov. '54-Dec. '66 .
4.19
5.07
2.19
4.38
3.29
2.55
.67
1.72
1
2
.67
.92
4.90
3.37
1.75
1.48
7.60
8.53
4.90
4.11
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-June '66..
1.02
.53
.54
.27
.76
.46
.71
.58
1
1
.71
.58
3.62
4.88
1.67
1.56
11.69
23.00
3.62
4.88
Jan. ^53-June '66. .
Jan. '53-Dec. '66. .
.84
1.02
.50
.74
.64
.62
.78
1.19
1
2
.78
.62
2.93
2.35
1.56
1.50
14.64
8.79
2.93
3.69
*54. Sales of retail stores
96 Unfilled orders durable goods industries
55. Wholesale prices, industrial
commodities
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
.97
1.45
.83
.54
.44
1.28
1.88
.42
3
1
.70
.42
2.08
5.63
1.57
1.57
15.20
10.86
4.84
5.63
.17
.20
.11
.16
.13
.13
.84
1.25
1
2
.84
.77
3.88
3.27
1.64
1.78
9.82
10.44
3.88
4.61
114.
116.
115.
117.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
1.12
1.60
1.41
1.90
2
3
2
3
.73
.74
.98
.87
2.53
2.54
2.76
2.58
1.77
1.85
2.00
1 .88
6.61
12.71
8.00
8.00
3.68
3.78
3.68
3.66
*47. Industrial production
*52 Personal income
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
*816 Manufacturing and trade sales
Treasury bill rate
Corporate bond yields.
Treasury bond yields
Municioal bond vields
'53-Dec. '66..
'53-Sep. '65..
'53-Dec. '66..
'53-Aug. '67. .
'53-Dec. '66. .
Jan. '53-Dec. '66..
Jan. '53-Dec. '66. .
'53-Sep. '65..
'59-June '66. .
'53-Sep. '65..
'53-Seo. '65. .
6.70
1.58
1.65
2.46
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
68
5.00
1.31
1.31
2.08
4.46
.82
.93
1.10
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part l.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Monthly series
Average duration of run
(ADR)
T/C
ci
T
C
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
CI
1
C
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES-Continued
LAGGING INDICATORS
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Jan.
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Jan.
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories . . Jan.
.
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
of finished goods
Jan.
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and indus. loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks
118. Mortgage yields, residential
'53-Dec. '66..
6.52
5.25
'53-Dec. '66..
'53-Dec. '66..
1.63
.54
1.32
'53-Dec. '66..
4.16
.18
.89
.50
.62
.28
.55
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . .
.51
.84
.37
.11
.30
.82
Jan. '53-Dec. '66..
Jul. '61-Sep. '65 . .
.95
.11
.46
.07
.83
.11
.14
.94
1.26
2
.64
4.07
1.55
7.95
5.72
1.49
.36
2
1
.75
.36
1.96
7.26
1.50
1.58
18.56
23.86
3.32
7.26
.52
1
.52
3.63
1.42
15.18
3.63
2
1
.72
.14
2.54
3.81
11.69
1.57
1.63
7.86
.14
21.71
11.69
.55
.65
1
1
.55
.65
10.00
1.50
1.92
.83
1
4
.83
.91
3.98
1.78
1.62
1.66
9.17
6
4
4
6
6
6
6
(M
.85
.86
C1)
C1)
C1)
C1)
1.43
1.63
1.83
1.40
1.43
1.57
1.44
1.35
1.55
1.62
1.42
1.43
1.48
1.38
10.07
1.82
1.80
2
3
.93
.71
2.85
2.09
1.50
1.58
10.69
4.72
4.45
.95
1
.95
2.71
1.54
9.00
2.71
.81
1
.81
2.95
1.50
8.55
2.95
1.26
4.07
23.86
4.07
5.56
10.00
9.82
3.98
4.06
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
81. Consumer prices
86. Exports excluding military aid
861, Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
and parts
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
87. General imports
91. Defense Department obligations, total
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
99. New orders, defense products industries
92. Military contract awards in U.S
Jan. '53-Dec. '66..
Jan. '53-Oct. '64 . .
.19
.12
3.81
3.56
Oct. '62-Dec.'66.. 12.45
Jan. '57-Dec. '66.. 6.32
Jan. '53-Oct. '64.. 3.04
Jul. '53-Sep. '65 .. 13.86
Jan. '56-Sep. '65 . . 27.42
Jan. '53-Sep. '65.. 22.53
July'55-Apr. '67.. 18.06
12.28
6.10
2.87
13.59
27.34
22.53
17.61
1.57
1.84
.80
1.26
2.16
1.92
1.92
3.77
7'. 80
3.31
3.59
10.77
12.68
11.72
14.10
16.67
9.92
10.85
6.64
8.92
9.50
2.37
3.05
3.54
2.07
2.02
2.53
2.43
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods. .
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods
855. Ratio, nonagri cultural job openings unfilled to
number of persons unemployed
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production
workers in manufacturing to consumer prices
Jan. '53-Apr. '67..
Jan. '53-Apr. '67..
2.04
Jan. '53-Apr. '67..
.95
Jan. '53-Apr. '67..
5.78
3.41
Jan. '53-Apr. '67..
.35
.29
.19
1.52
2
.78
2.34
1.50
13.15
3.78
.68
.57
.42
.49
.62
.66
1.19
2.41
1.55
1.45
1.48
1.73
1.45
10.63
10.13
25.33
16.89
19.00
13.82
16.89
4.22
5.17
5.81
.72
.53
.86
.87
.84
.64
.47
.67
2.30
2.58
3.62
2.24
2.02
1.01
1.96
2
3
2
3
3
2
3
.18
.27
.39
.22
.39
.31
1.71
1.81
1.14
1.64
1.91
1.14
2
3
2
3
3
2
.95
.73
.59
.74
.68
.61
10.81
15.73
12.29
19.22
1.99
1.68
1.54
2.01
1.66
1.80
2
2
3
1
2
?
.87
.91
.65
.86
.64
3.20
2.58
2.47
3.53
3.26
1.77
1.73
1.66
1.84
1.68
9
i #/
.99
.86
1.76
.62
.47
.98
.66
4.21
9.00
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
123.
122.
121.
126.
125.
128.
127.
Canada, industrial production
July'53-Mar. '67..
United Kingdom, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
OECD European countries, industrial production. . . Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
France, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
West Germany, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Japan, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
Italy, industrial production.
Jan. '53-Sep. '65..
133.
132.
136.
135.
138.
137.
Canada consumer prices
United Kingdom, consumer prices
France, consumer prices
West Germany, consumer prices
Japan consumer prices
Italy, consumer prices
Jan.
Jan.
Jan,
Jan.
Jan,
Jan.
'53-June'67..
'53-June '67. .
'53-June '67. .
'53-June '67- .
'53-June '67. .
'53-June '67. .
143.
142
146
145
148
147.
Canada, stock prices
United Kingdom stock prices
France stock prices
West Germany stock prices
Japan stock prices
Ital v. stock orices
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-June '67
'53-June '67
'53-June '67
'53- June '67
'53-June '67
'W-Jimfi 'fi7
.89
1.08
.86
1.45
1.51
1.73
1.50
.25
.46
.52
.32
.81
.34
1.02
.77
1.38
1.33
1.23
1.40
.31
.50
.45
.37
.74
.35
1.22
2.78
3.14
3.95
3.30
3.60
2.15
2.50
3.30
2.00
2.43
1.61
1.67
1.88
2.33
2.28
1.34
1.49
1.75
3 #n
? m
1 QO
i ^£
.86
1.07
•7T
2.67
2.71
3.38
2.49
9.11
6.41
6.92
8.24
3.09
//
1.62
1.37
1.69
8.65
6.00
5.00
5.21
4.84
9.00
7.48
12.36
10.81
12.21
8.24
24.57
10.81
7.86
7.52
7.52
7.21
3.91
3.66
4.17
3.53
4.53
Q 1 1
*>
7.12
m
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
69
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part l.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
c
1
I/C
I/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
QUARTERLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
11. New capital appropriations manufacturing
*16 Corporate profits after taxes. . .
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries
18. Profits per dollar of sales manufacturing. .....
110. Total private borrowing
IQ'53-IVQ'66 ....
IQ'53-IQ'66
9.66
5.56
4.78
2.95
7.18
4.26
.67
.69
1
1
.67
.69
3.06
3.06
1.28
1.27
3.44
5.20
3.06
3.06
IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IVQ'66....
IQ'53-IVQ'66....
4.18
5.71
10.97
2.69
3.60
6.31
2.99
3.70
7.99
.90
.97
.79
1
1
1
.90
.97
.79
2.36
2.50
2.20
1.30
1.31
1.22
6.50
4.23
3.67
2.36
2.50
2.20
IQ'53-IQ'66
|Q'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IVQ'66....
1.54
1.28
1.37
5.58
.34
.35
.30
.85
1.45
1.14
1.32
5.45
.24
.31
.23
.16
1
1
1
1
5.78
.24
.31
3.47
.23 10.40
4.23
.16
1.33
1.33
1.21
1.34
7.43
5.78
10.40
6.11
5.78
3.47
10.40
4.23
IQ'53-IIIQ'65....
3.21
.77
2.99
.26
l
.26
5.56
1.47
5.56
5.56
IQ'53-IVQ'66....
IQ'53-II1Q'65. ...
.85
1.99
.40
.96
.69
1.80
.57
.54
1
1
.57
.54
2.89
2.38
1.28
1.47
4.23
3.33
2.89
2.38
IQ'53-IIQ'67.
IQ'53-IIQ'67.
IQ'53-IVQ'66....
3.06
3.58
2.34
1.76
2.69
.87
2.41
2.06
1.89
.73
1.31
.46
l
2
1
.73
.50
.46
2.28
1.78
2.62
1.30
1.24
1.34
3.35
4.75
4.58
2.28
2.80
2.62
IQ'53-IIQ'67.
2.21
.87
1.79
.49
1
.49
2.85
1.42
3.80
2.85
IQ'53-IVQ'66
IQ'56-IQ'67
8.54
3.64
6.98
2.28
1.57
.97
2
1
.57
.97
1.57
2.10
1.28
1.33
3.67
4.40
3.18
2.10
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
49
*50.
57
97.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Final sales
.
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing.
LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product
(1958 dol ) nonfinancial corporations
. .» .
*67 Bank rates on short-term business loans
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
83 Federal cash receipts from public
82 Federal cash payments to public
101. National defense purchases, current dollars ....
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
850 Ratio output to capacity mfg
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
personal income
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing
^Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
4.45
2.36
1
Not shown for series when MOD is
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in part 1 of this table. More complete explanations appear in
Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau
of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of
Business, October 1957).
"Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
seasonally adjusted series.
"7* is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
70
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth
series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular
component and the cyclical component over 1-month spans
(Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without regard
to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span.
MCD is the shortest span in months for which the average
percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical
component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and
remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations
in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by
cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an
MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate
time span over which to observe cyclical movements in
quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for
which the average percentage change (without regard to sign)
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1—Continued
in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular
component, and remains so.
"T/C~" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad justed series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans and for
spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", nq_I/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown
for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The
MCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number
of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally ad justed series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month
intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is
1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about
95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving
average (MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR
is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CI is 1.69 for the series on
average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance
(series 5). This indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about
as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures
shown in the next two columns, 1.42 for I and 12.67 for C,
suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been
successfully separated into an essentially random component
and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 3.97
for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 2-month
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (2 months
being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average,
about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR from 1.42
for CI to 3.97 for the MCD moving average indicates that,
for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in
the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes
Monthly series
Period
covered
Unit of
measure
CI
C
1
I/C
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
MCD
span
CI
.98
1.51
1.43
9.06
2.65
1.67
1.69
1.50
1.62
6.08
7.60
3.00
3.10
1
C
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods industries.
98. Change in money supply and time deposits ....
85. Change in total money supply
33. Change in mortgage debt
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
112. Change in business loans
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . . . do. . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Bil. dol. .
Jan. '53-June'67 Ann. rate,
percent .
Jan. '53-June'67 . . .do.. .
Jan. '55-Dec. '66 Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 . . . do. . .
Aug. '59-Dec.'66 . . .do. . .
3 . 68
3.58
1.51
.48
1.44
2.49
2.88
1.31
.87
2.22
.74
4 87
1
I)
. 29 4.97
.13 3.51
4
2.48
2 . 90
.34
.36
7.37
7 . 94
)
6
C1)
1.45
1.42
1.37 10.81
1.40 10.81
2.85
2.85
1.22
.79
2.10
.34
.31
.46
3.58
2.56
4.56
3
6
.93
.92
.90
1.52
1.65
1.60
1.39 11.92
1.49 10.13
1 . 66 8.00
2.69
3.13
4.15
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol. . 98.01
78.89
46.86
1.68
3
.68
2.03
1.60 10.13
3.49
Jan. '53-June'62 . . . do. . . 58.44
55.87
17.28
3.23
3
.97
1.82
1.61
2.64
.98
(
X
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
93 Free reserves
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
88. Merchandise trade balance
9.42
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 2.
71
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Contmued
Part 2,-Average Unit Changes-Continued
-r 777
I/C
Quarterly series
Period
covered
Unit of
measure
Cl
c
1
I/C
QCD
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
QUARTERLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
|Q'53-IQ'66
Ann. rate
bil. dol... 2.28
1.43
1.37 . 1.04
2
48
1.73
1 .37
4.00
2.83
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
IQ'53-IIIQ'65.... Mil. dol.... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04
...do.... 492.17 302.66 286.13 1.06
1Q'60-IQ'66
2
2
.45
.55
1.67
2.00
1.25
1.41
3.13
2 . 67
2 . 72
2.56
95 Fed balance nat'l income and product acct.
IO'53-IQ'66
1
2
. 76 2 . 17 1.37
.62 1.97 1.39
3.71
2.85
2 . 17
2.33
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
Ann rate
bil. dol... 2.50
IQ'53-IIQ'S7..... ...do.... 4.24
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
1.37
3.02
1.81
2. 24
.76
1.35
1
Not shown for series when MCD is "6" or more.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
The measures in part 2 are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data.
Thus, "Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed
in the same unit of measure as the series itself.
72
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"r is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown in part 2 have the same meaning
as in part 1.
Appendix D.—CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (NOVEMBER 1966 TO DECEMBER 1967)
1966
19 57
Series
Nov.
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
13. New business incorporations1
Dec.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
92.7
105.3 139.0 146.3 109.1
86.3
99.3 112.0 95.2 117.2
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
81.2
91.. 5 79.2
98.5 106.1 104.4
106.2
95.9
85.7
99.7
76.9
88.1
86.8 105.4 139.0
96.2 86.3 99 3
Apr.
May
14 Liabilities of business failures
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing2.
91.3
99.8
83.2
91.2 102.0 109.6
97.4
30 Nonagricultural placements all industries1 •
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies 3
96 7
80 2
82 3
-96.
309. -336. -390.
88 7
89 8 101 9 106 6 107 7 114 4 107 8 101 6 100 3
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans 4
72 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
109.4
100 0 101 7
' 88 2 100 2
91 Defense Department obligations total
92 Military contract awards in U.S
5
112 Change in business loans
301 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
on Q
Q7 9
79 8
91 6
QQ Q
no n
856 Ratio average earnings to consumer prices
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing 2
100.1
101.4
862 Index of export orders nonelectrical
machinery
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 6
no £
-13.
9.
25.
91.9
110.8 100 9
96.7
153.
135
92.1
151
44
11
97 8
96 1
87 0
98.8
99 3
75 7
99.9 100 7 99 0
95 3 200 1 72.8
91 9
93 9
on n
Qn n 1 L.^ 7 i nQ i
90 1 184 2 94 4
Q7 A 1 no
82 6
00
0
QQ
f.
&A n
QQ ^
91 6
1m
c
-15
i n^ 9
0
99 3
Dec.
90 6
99.7
83 2
QC
on o
C
-98
315
88 4
89 8
109.4
97.3
QO
i nn i
96 4
83 3
100 7 113 4 118 4 113 8
99 8 101 3 99 9
67 8 101 1 105 0
i nn i
99 g
)
90 7 311 5
m
QQ 9
QQ Q
92 9
88 2 100 2
%
9
94 3
'7
Q
Q7 9
79 7
91 8
OQ
99 2 99 4 99 6 99 9 i nn #
101 8 111 9 1 1 n 9 i n^ z. QO Q on -i
i nn A
i nn "3 i nn 9i nn 9 99 6
QC
Q
1 nQ n 1 pn o 1 n )
100.5 100.5 100.1 100.2 100.2
100.8
QQ 1
120.0 113.1
92 6 100 4 113 1 110.3
109.5
i nn QI nn ^
on i
78 4
93.7 100.4
106.1
Nov.
1 r\j
100.3 100.0
98.6
Q 1 no i 1 nn /
+ 18
o
i nn &
99.6
98 9
99.3
99 9
Q/
QJ
QQ
)
-10
J
(L
99 7 100 1 100 5
101.4
QP, n
QO
Q
QQ
1
+6
1
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method
II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained "by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to "be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census
Method IE seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
73
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-July 1921
1923-July 1924
1926-Nov. 1927
1929-Mar. 1933
1937-June 1938
Feb
Nov
July
July
May
1945-Oct
1948-Oct
1953-Aug
1957- Apr
1960-Feb
19454
1949
1954 5
1958
1961
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions .
4 contractions since 1948
*41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
*47. Index
of industrial
production
*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)
1
(NA)
(NA
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0.3
+ 2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-4.0
-1.8
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-5.7
-6.5
-3.7
-16.0
-16.0
-8.8
-1.9
-2.1
-1.9
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
*52. Per- *816. Manufacturing
and trade
sales
sonal
income
*43. Unemployment rate, total
*54. Sales
of retail
stores
-49.6
-11.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-43.5
-17.3
+7.9
+2.3
2
+2.2
+ 25.4
+8.8
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
(NA)
-7.5
-7.2
-6.8
-3.1
+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7
+ 2.2
+4.1
+ 3.4
+3.2
+1.8
-2.8
-2.8
-1.3
-2.0
-2.4
+ 0.1
-7.0
-5.8
-7.0
-2.2
-2.6
-1.4
+ 3.3
+3.6
+ 3.3
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
*41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
*47. Index
of industrial
production
July
July
Nov
Mar
June
1921-May
1924-Oct
1927-Aug
1933-May
1938-Feb.
1923
1926
1929 .
1937
19454
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+ 24.1
+119.9
+183.3
Oct
Oct
Aug
Apr
1945-Nov
1949-July
1954-July
1958-May
1948
19535
1957
1960
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.9
Median:6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expansions . .
4 exnansions since 194B
+17.5
+13.0
+1 3.0
*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q) 1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
*52. Per- *816. Manufacturing
and trade
sales
sonal
income
(Q) 1
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+ 25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+29.6
+13.2
+ 12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+ 21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+ 25.2
+3.3
+ 28.8
+11.8
+11.4
+34.9
+44.1
+ 22.4
+15.1
+28.5
+41.4
+ 22.1
+ 13.3
+35.2
+ 26.6
+ P3.6
+12.3
+12.1
+11.6
+ 27.5
+ 20.9
+ ?£ 6
+26.7
+21.3
-4-9^
?
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Rate at
peak
2
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
Rate at
trough
2
2
4.0
^3.2
2
1.9
2
3
0.0
11.2
11.9
*5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.1
3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
6.9
3.5
3.9
4.0
7.2
7.6
7.2
3
*43. Unemployment rate, total
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
Change
in rate,
peak to
trough
*54. Sales
of retail
stores
Change
in rate,
trough
to peak
2
Rate at
trough
2
+15.7
+ 9.9
+3.6
+69.2
+105.4
-8.7
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
(NA)
+50.0
+ 22.6
+ 16.2
+63.8
+ 25.6
+ 20.3
+11.9
+0.3
-5.3
-1.8
-2.3
3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
+29.6
+19.4
(NA)
+ 20.5
+16.0
+ 9? n
-3.7
-2.6
o c\
7.1
6.3
f-, n
2
Rate at
peak
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
2
3.2
1.9
3.2
11.2
1.1
2
2
3
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.1
3.3
3.7
1Q
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)of "1" or "2" (series41,43,47,52,and816), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the
base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base
for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list"of 25
indicators.
NA=Not available.
1
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p.670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
^World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
74
Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Historical data and latest revisions are presented for selected series. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
May
Apr.
32.
June
...
...
...
22
73
30
38
53
*60
31
38
60
49
38
32
58
38
41
17
50
64
38
34
34
36
88
34
50
30
40
94
38
47
30
41
96
50
46
25
47
88
50
46
22
53
87
34
44
20
52
84
31
40
20
50
70
39
30
38
62
65
40
29
38
62
70
56
38
44
60
72
52
34
49
62
72
47
32
57
64
72
44
36
58
64
66
46
29
58
56
56
36
25
52
50
28
47
48
60
60
32
48
46
58
63
34
48
42
54
. 55
36
49
44
42
59
40
52
44
48
65
41
55
48
52
74
39
55
48
48
72
38
51
48
48
70
38
53
48
46
66
72
82
70
75
66
69
62
70
64
73
62
72
60
70
66
64
72
57
2.30
2.00
2.10
2.60
2.63
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
2.00
2.10
2.10
2.64
2.65
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
*78
34
26
10
82
25
36
14
86
1950 ....
1951
1952
1953
1954 ....
54
84
28
37
21
62
85
22
37
24
60
74
18
40
27
1955
1956 ....
1957
1958
1959 ....
54
48
33
28
58
60
46
28
28
62
1960 ....
1961
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
44
38
56
50
55
1965 ....
1966 ....
68
74
69
20
31
12
81
24
30
12
60
58
19
38
30
66
46
23
36
35
66
49
25
32
62
71
50
28
34
62
30
40
56
52
54
27
40
55
54
60
72
85
66
86
67.
...
2.30
2.10
2.10
2.40
2.70
.. .
...
2.60
3.02
3.45
3.54
3.72
...
3.54
3.93
4.38
4.49
4.51
...
4.97
5.55
22
36
Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Percent)1
...
...
...
2.30
2.00
2.10
2.47
2.74
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
2.68
3.07
3.51
3.73
3.60
...
2.63
3.06
3.49
3.74
3.56
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
3.77
4.35
4.83
4.21
5.27
5.35
4.97
5.01
5.01
4.99
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
4.97
4.99
4.99
5.01
4.98
4.99
5.82
...
...
5.00
6.30
.
5.34
4.97
4.98
5.00
4.99
...
Dec.
Nov.
...
82
42
34
12
...
Oct.
71
25
36
38
91
37
35
16
!! !
Sept.
Aug.
Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (Percent)
1945
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
1* \
July
...
...
...
...
3.56
4.14
4.40
4.17
4.87
2.84
3.27
3.51
3.76
3.55
3.93
4.38
4.85
4.50
5.36
...
...
4.99
4.96
5.02
5.00
5.00
...
...
...
...
5.27
6.31
...
...
.. .
end-of-quarter data for 19 cities are linked to the quarterly data for 35 cities presented in table 2.
January
75
Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented for selected series. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
May
93.
July
June
Sept.
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Free reserves (Millions of dollars)
1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948
1949 ....
+996
+1,126
+744
+938
+669
+720
+807
+602
+560
+600
+766
+505
+698
+552
+546
+571
+631
+707
+700
+608
+373
+806
+677
+599
+601
+749
+816
+650
+752
+658
+1,056
+807
+689
+722
+910
+701
+765
+673
+750
+861
+675
+736
+798
+756
+847
+699
+756
+783
+706
+816
+575
+643
+576
+655
+677
+1,157
+743
+762
+663
+685
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
+900
+613
+723
-640
+836
+614
+298
+330
-672
+339
+655
+471
+578
-614
+503
+593
+672
+283
-631
+626
+624
+152
+623
+562
-468
+366
+770
+483
+412
-383
+669
+383
-353
+561
+700
+664
+130
+365
+711
-7
+250
+708
+775
+821
-400
+390
+638
+586
+389
-875
+198
+650
+885
+169
-870
+252
+457
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
+369
-255
+116
+122
+270
-267
-126
+324
+168
-195
-508
+484
-513
-189
-339
-471
+382
-536
-359
-195
-344
-492
-154
-293
-245
-139
-383
+547
-556
-286
-214
-466
+95
+96
+20
-41
-48
+212
-504
-444
+547
-319
+92
-59
+122
-409
-316
+495
-140
-493
-459
-433
-424
1960 ....
1961
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
-375
+696
+555
+375
+175
-365
+517
+434
+301
-219
+486
+382
+269
+414
+547
+375
+480
+442
+419
+614
+517
+473
+94
+89
+99
+669
+419
+268
+209
+168
1965 ....
1966 ....
+106
+36
-75
-44
-107
-246
•
+95
-533
-504
+492
-259
+65
+725
+95
-36
-133
-194
+551
+441
+313
+167
-33
+37
+453
+440
+247
+120
+530
+440
+161
+135
+247
+537
+439
+133
+82
+549
+391
+138
+120
+83
+91
+89
+106
+33
-34
-105
-268
-180
-352
-182
-352
-174
-362
-134
-390
-144
-368
-146
-431
-83
-2
-222
-165
115.
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (Percent)
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
2.44
2.21
2.21
2.45
2.42
2.38
2.12
2.21
2.45
2.39
2.40
2.09
2.19
2.44
2.38
2.39
2.08
2.19
2.44
2.38
2.39
2.19
2.19
2.42
2.38
2.35
2.16
2.22
2.41
2.38
2.34
2.18
2.25
2.44
2.27
2.36
2.23
2.24
2.45
2.24
2.37
2.28
2.24
2.45
2.22
2.35
2.26
2.27
2.45
2.22
2.33
2.25
2.36
2.44
2.20
2.33
2.24
2.39
2.44
2.19
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
2.20
2.39
2.74
2.80
2.69
2.24
2.40
2.71
2.83
2.62
2.27
2.47
2.70
2.89
2.53
2.30
2.56
2.64
2.97
2.48
2.31
2.63
2.57
3.11
2.54
2.33
2.65
2.61
3.13
2.55
2.34
2.63
2.61
3.02
2.47
2.33
2.57
2.70
3.02
2.48
2.36
2.56
2.71
2.98
2.52
2.38
2.61
2.74
2.83
2.54
2.38
2.66
2.71
2.86
2.57
2.39
2.70
2.75
2.79
2.59
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
2.68
2.88
3-34
3.24
3.91
2.78
2.85
3.22
3.28
3.92
2.78
2.93
3.26
3.25
3-92
2.82
3.07
3.32
3.12
4.01
2.81
2.97
3-40
3.14
4.08
2.82
2.93
3.58
3.20
4.09
2.91
3.00
3.60
3.36
4.11
2.95
3.17
3.63
3.60
4.10
2.92
3.21
3.66
3.75
4.26
2.87
3.20
3.73
3.76
4.11
2.89
3.30
3.57
3.70
4.12
2.91
3.40
3.30
3.80
4.27
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
4.37
3-89
4.08
3.89
4.15
4.22
3.81
4.09
3.92
4.14
4.08
3-78
4.01
3-93
4.18
4.18
3.80
3.89
3.97
4.20
4.16
3.73
3.88
3.97
4.16
3.98
3.88
3.90
4.00
4.13
3.86
3-90
4.02
4.01
4.13
3.79
4.00
3.98
3.99
4.14
3.84
4.02
3.94
4.04
4.16
3-91
3.98
3.89
4.07
4.16
3.93
3.98
3.87
4.11
4.12
3.88
4.06
3.87
4.14
4.14
1965.
1966.
4.14
4.43
4.16
4.61
4.15
4.63
4..15
4.55
4.14
4.57
4.:u
4.15
4.75
4.19
4.80
4.25
4.79
4.28
4.70
4.34
4.74
4.43
4.65
4.63
(January 1968)
76
Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data and latest revisions are presented for selected series. See the Series Finding Guide for the publication date of the latest historical data for each series.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
May
Apr.
Mar.
117.
Aug.
July
June
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (percent)
1945 ....
1946 . . . .
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 . . . .
.. .
. •.
2.36
2.16
2.47
2.20
2.45
2.18
2.37
2.14
2.31
2.14
2.24
2.20
2.27
2.16
2.37
2.12
2.41
2.14
2.42
2.16
2.38
2.12
2.26
2.09
1950 . . . .
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
2.06
1.61
2.09
2.43
2.50
2.03
1.58
2.07
2.55
2.42
2.01
1.74
2.08
2.65
2.40
2.03
1.94
2.04
2.65
2.47
2.00
2.00
2.06
2.78
2.50
1.99
2.19
2.13
2.99
2.48
2.01
2.15
2.15
2.98
2.32
1.83
2.02
2.24
2.90
2.26
1.84
2.01
2.30
2.90
2.31
1.79
2.06
2.38
2.75
2.34
1.74
2.05
2.38
2.62
2..32
1.72
2.09
/.'.38
2.60
2.36
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957
1958 ....
1959 . . . .
2.40
2.50
3.18
2.91
3.42
2.44
2.44
3.00
3.02
3.36
2.44
2.57
3.10
3.06
3.30
2.41
2.70
3.13
2.96
3.39
2.38
2.68
3.27
2.92
3.58
2.41
2.54
3.41
2.97
3.72
2.54
2.65
3.40
3.09
3.71
2.60
2.80
3.54
3.36
3-58
2.58
2.94
3.54
3.54
3.78
2.51
2.95
3.42
5.45
3.62
2.46
3.16
3.37
3.32
3.55
2.57
3.22
3.04
3.34
3.68
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963
1964 . . . .
3.72
3.40
3.34
5.10
3.22
3.60
3.31
3.21
3.15
3.14
3.56
3.45
3.14
3-05
3.28
3.56
3.50
3.06
3.10
3.28
3.60
3.43
3.11
3.11
3.20
3.55
3.52
3.26
3.21
3.20
3.50
3.52
3.28
3.22
3.18
3.34
3.52
3.23
3.13
3.19
3.42
3.53
3.11
3.20
3.23
3.53
3.42
3.02
3.20
3.25
3.40
3.41
3.04
3.30
3.18
3.40
3.47
3.07
3.27
3.13
1965 ....
1966 ....
3.06
3.52
3.09
3.64
3.18
3.72
3.15
3.56
3.17
3.65
3.24
3.77
3.27
3.95
3.24
4.12
3.35
4.12
3.40
3.94
3.46
3.86
3.54
3.86
.. .
.. .
118.
...
«..
Secondary market yields on .PHA mortgages
...
.• .
1945 ....
1946
1947 ....
1948
1949 ....
4.35
4.35
4.35
1950 ....
1951
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954
4.31
4.08
4.26
4.34
4.75
4.31
4.08
4.27
4.34
4.69
4.30
4.12
4.29
4.34
4.64
1955 ....
1956
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959
4.56
4.73
5.58
5.60
4.56
4.70
5.36
5.56
5.58
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962
1963 ....
1964 ....
6.24
6.00
5.69
5.52
5.45
1965
1966 ....
5.45
5.70
...
...
WA
*..
(Percent)
.. .
...
4.34
4.35
4.34
4.34
4.32
4.32
4.32
4.32
WA
WA
4.19
4.29
4.27
4.29
4.08
4.31
4.30
4.74
4.56
4.08
4.31
4.30
4.82
4.56
4.03
4.30
4.30
4.86
4.56
4.08
4.27
4.31
4.82
4.56
4.08
4.27
4.32
4.81
4.56
4.08
4.26
4.32
4.78
4.56
4.75
4.73
4.35
WA
WA
4.62
4.59
4.09
4.29
4.30
4.67
4.57
4.59
4.68
5.35
5.51
5.57
4.60
4.71
5.35
5.43
5.58
4.63
4.78
5.32
5.39
5.64
4.63
4.81
5.35
5.37
5.71
4.64
4.81
5.38
5.35
5.75
4.67
4.87
4.70
4.92
WA
WA
5.37
5.50
4.73
4.95
5. 63
5.57
5.80
WA
WA
5.63
5.60
6.23
6.23
5.89
5.68
5.48
5.45
6.22
5.82
5.65
5.47
5.45
6.21
5.77
5.64
5.46
5.45
6.21
6.19
WA
WA
5.59
5.45
5.45
6.18
5.68
5.58
5.45
5.46
6.14
5.68
5.57
5.45
5.46
6.11
5.695.56
5.45
5.46
6.09
5-70
5.55
5.45
5.45
6.05
5.70
5.54
5.45
5.45
6.04
5.69
5.53
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
6.00
5.45
5.45
6.32
5.44
6.45
5.44
6.51
5.45
6.58
5.46
6.63
5.49
5.51
6.81
5.62
6 . 77
WA
WA
5.60
5.45
5.45
'
•
WA
WA
WA
'
5.61
5.60
6.23
(January 1968)
77
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
Page
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
*1.
*30.
2.
5.
3.
301.
46.
Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg.
Nonagricultural placements, all indus
Accession rate, manufacturing
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Nonagri. job openings unfilled
Help-wanted advertising
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...
9
9
9
9
9
17
17
33
33
33
33
33
38
38
511.
*41.
42.
*43.
45.
40.
*502.
Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
Employees in nonagri. establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
C...
C...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C .. •
Lg...
17
17
17
18
18
18
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
41
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C...
C ...
C ...
18
18
IB
19
19
19
19
19
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
66-7
66-7
68
68
68
77
66
76
66
76
76
76
73
73
73
66-7
74
68
66-7
74
66-7
68
69
66-7
66-7
66-7
70
70
68
68
Oct. '67
Oct. '631
Sept. '67
July '631
Sept. !67
Apr. '67
Dec. '67
77
77
72
72
76
72
76
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
Dec.
Feb.
Apr.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
73
73
77
74
74
77
July
July
Dec.
July
July
Apr.
July
Apr.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'66
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
49.
*50.
*47.
*52.
53.
*816.
57.
*54.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Industrial production
Personal income
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., constr.
Manufacturing and trade sales
Final sales
Sales of retail stores
74
74
74
74
66-7
-
74
66-7
70
68
74
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
*38.
13.
*6.
94.
*10.
11.
24.
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts, value
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
New capital appropriations, mfg
New orders, mach. and equip, industries
L ... 10
L ... 10
L ... 10
L ... 10
L ... 10
L ... n
L ... n
33
33
34
34
34
34
34
9.
7.
*29.
96.
97.
*61.
505.
Construction contracts, comm. and indus
Private nqnfarm housing starts
New building permits, private housing
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg
Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip
Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend
L .. . 11
L ... n
L ... 11
C ... 20
C ... 20
Lg... 22
Lg- • • 22
34
34
34
40
40
41
41
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
Lg...
Lg...
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
41
41
66-7
68
68
'68
68
68
70
68
66-7
66-7
74
66
78
June ' 65
Aug. '631
June '67
78
76
75
May '67
Aug. '67
Dec. '67
68
70
70
69
78
76
74
78
77
65
78
Aug.
June
Dec.
Aug.
June
Nov.
72
71
68
71
68
68
71
69
69
72
72
68
75
65
75
76
73
72
73
68
6-7
66-7
May '67
'67
'65
'67
'67
'64
'67
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
21.
*31.
37.
20.
26.
32.
25.
*71.
65.
Change in business inventories
Change, mfg. and trade inventories
Purchased materials, higher inventories
Change, mtls. and supplies inventories
Buying policy, production materials
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value
* Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
22
22
66-7
66-7
L ; leading C = roughly coincident, Lg-lagging.
x
73
July '67
Nov. '66
June '631
Dec. '67
June ' 64
Jan. '68
Dec. '67
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
Appendix G in this issue.
79
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
Page
Issue
75
76
77
72
73
71
72
73
72
75
75
73
Dec.
Apr.
Oct.
July
July
Apr.
July
Feb.
Apr.
July
July
Feb.
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
*23.
*19.
19.
*16.
22.
18.
*17.
55.
58.
68.
*62.
81.
Industrial materials prices
.-..
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (1941-43= 10)
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (1957-59 = 100)
Corporate profits after taxes
Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Wholesale price index, industrial commodities
Wholesale price index, manufactured goods
Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfin. corporations
Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Consumer prices
L ...
L ...
L- • •
L.
L .
L.
L .
C...
C ...
Lg...
Lg...
U ...
13
13
32
20
23
23
24
36
36
48
36
36
36
36
40
40
42
42
43
20
66-7
66-7
68-9
66-7
66-7
66-7
68
68
70
70
70
70
68
68
68
70
69
69
73
'67
'64
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
98.
85.
33.
*113.
112.
110.
14.
39.
93.
114.
116.
115.
117.
66.
*72*67.
118.
Change, money supply and time deposits
Change, total U.S. money supply
Change, mortgage debt
Change, consumer installment
debt
Change, business loans 2
Total private borrowing^
Liabilities of business failures
Delinquency rate, instal. loans, 30 days and over
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L...
L .••
15
15
1$
1$
15
16
16
16
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
Free reserves
Treasury bill rate 2 2
Corporate bond yields2
Treasury bond yields
Municipal bond yields 2
Consumer installment debt
Comm. and indus. loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Mortgage yields, residential 2
C -..
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
Lg...
Lg...
Lg...
Lg...
21
21
21
21
21
23
23
23
23
40
40
40
40
40
42
42
42
42
U ...
U ...
U ...
U ...
U , ..
U ...
U ...
24
24
24
25
25
2$
25
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
72
72
71
69
69
69
69
U...
U ...
U ...
U ...
U...
U •••
U•••
U •••
U ...
26
26
26
26
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
72
72
70
70
70
69
69
69
69
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
70
69
VII.
66-7
71
71
71
71
71
70
68
68
73
73
73
73
66-7
66-7
Sept. '67
Sept. '67
Apr. '67
Dec. '67
Apr. '67
Feb. '67
Nov. '631
Apr. '67
76
71
72
76
77
77
73
75
77
Jan.
July
Aug.
Jan.
Jan.
Dec.
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
'68
'64
'66
'68
'68
'67
'67
'68
'68
79
79
74
73
77
78
74
June
June
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
73
76
78
78
78
76
78
77
66
76
July
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
July
Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
Aug.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'64
'67
73
73
77
77
77
78
78
78
79
79
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
71
68
69
69
70
69
77
76
71
78
75
73
66
71
73
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
88. Merchandise trade balance
86. Exports, excluding military aid
861. Export orders, durable goods, except motor vehicles....
862. Export orders, nonelectric machinery
87. General imports
73
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95.
84.
83.
82.
101.
91.
90.
99.
92.
Fed. balance, nat'l. income and prod, account
Federal cash surplus or deficit
Federal cash receipts from public
Federal cash payments to public
National defense purchases, current dollars
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products industries
Military contract awards in U.S
27
27
27
27
27
73
73
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
850.
851.
852.
853.
854.
855.
856.
857.
Ratio, output to capacity, mfg
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments durable goods
Ratio, prod, of bus. equipment to consumer goods
Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income ..
Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to unemployed....
Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
Vacancy rate in total rental housing
......... |
U.
U ...
U.
U ...
U ..
U ..
U ..
U. .
28
28
70
69
69
70
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators,
L=leading, c = roughly coincident, Lg-lagging, U-unclassified ("other selected U.S. series,' "U.S. series under consideration" and "international comparisions"). L Appendix G in this issue. 2 A description of this series is contained in the July 1964 issue of BCD (appendix G).
80
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other grouping
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
F
1
2
1
2
3
4
B
D
C
Page
Issue
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
123.
122.
126.
125.
128.
121
127
Canada index of industrial production
United Kingdom index of industrial production
France, index of industrial production
West Germany, index of industrial production
Japan, index of industrial production
OECD Europe iridex of industrial production
Italy index of industrial production
u
u
133
132
136
135.
138.
137
Canada index of consumer prices
United Kingdom index of consumer prices
France index of consumer prices
West Germany index of consumer prices
Japan index of consumer prices
Italy index of consumer prices
U
143.
142
146.
145
148
147
Canada, index of stock prices
United Kingdom index of stock prices
France index of stock prices
West Germany index of stock prices
Japan index of stock prices
Italy index of stock prices
U
U....
U
u
U
u
u
U
U
U
U
u
U
u
U
U
76
77
78
77
68
77
78
July
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'64
'67
!
67
79
79
80
79
80
80
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
69
69
69
69
69
69
81
81
82
81
82
82
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
-
83
72
77
69
72
72
73
Oct.
Apr.
Aug.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
May
'67
'65
'67
'64
'65
'65
'65
Nov.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'67
'65
'67
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
31
31
31
31
31
31
47
47
47
47
47
47
69
69
69
69
69
69
-
-
48
48
48
48
48
48
32
32
32
32
32
32
-
-
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl.
D6.
Dll.
D34.
D19
D23
D5
Average workweek
New orders
Capital appropriations
Profits, mfg
Stock prices
Industrial materials prices
Initial claims
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
54
54
54
55
55
55
55
D41
D47.
D58
D54.
D35
D36.
D48
D61.
Employees in nonagri establishments
Industrial production
Wholesale prices mfg
Retail sales
Net sa les mfrs
New orders
Freight carloadings
New plant and equipment expenditures
52
52
52
52
53
53
53
53
56
56
56
56
57
57
57
57
58
58
73
59
60
60
61
61
62
63
-
79
73
78
73
70
70
68-9
69
U« unclassified ("other selected U.S. series," "U.S. series under consideration," and "international comparisons").
81
. . . Where do we go from here?
New report from the Census Bureau . . . 200,000,000 Americans . . .
issued to mark a U.S. population milestone. It tells who we are, where we are, how
we live and grow, our prospects for tomorrow as we pass this significant mark in
America's amazing development... our social and economic makeup clearly and
dramatically presented in the easy-to-read and generously illustrated new booklet
200 MILLION AMERICANS.
In color.
80 pages.
More than 140 photographs and 35 maps, tables, and charts. $1.00
ORDER FORM
Mail with remittance to:
Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402
OR any Department of Commerce field office
AMgRSCANB
Please send me
copies of 200 MILLION AMERICANS at $1.00
each. Enclosed find $
(check, money order, or Supt. of
Documents coupons) or charge to my Deposit Account No
Name
—
Street address
City, State, and ZIP Code .
itles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
le numbers assigned to the series are for identification purDses only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
NT indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series,
ata apply to the whole period except for series designated
y "EOM" (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter),
'he Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in
fhich a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus,
'(M, II)" indicates a monthly series classified in group II.
'he general classification follows the approach of the National
Jureau of Economic Research, Inc. The series preceded by
in asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list"
)f 25 indicators.
36 Leading Indicators
I. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing
(M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
!. Accession rate, manufacturing (M,I).-Department of/Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
I. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,I).-Department of Labor,
bureau of Labor Statistics
i. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
5. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods indus
tries (!YI,III).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
1. New private nonfarm housing units started (M,III).-Depart
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
3. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings,floor space(M,lll).--F.W Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National'
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
0. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,III).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F.W.
Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
.1. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q,lll).--National Industrial Conference Board;
component industries are seasonally adjusted and added
to obtain seasonally adjusted total
13. Number of new business incorporations (M, 111).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,VI).^Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices
of manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally
adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages,
salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit
of output (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of. Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q,V).~Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission, seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
<19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (IY!,Y).-Standard
and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories ui
materials and supplies (M,IV).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q,IV).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M,IV).-Department of Commerce. Bureau of
the Census
*47. Index of industrial production (M,II).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll).--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,ll).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer. (M,IV).-National Association
of Purchasing Agents: no seasonal adjustment
*52. Personal income (HI,II).-Department of Commerce., Office
of Business Economics
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M,II).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (iyi,l).«Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security, seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census '
*54. Sales of retail stores (Wl,II).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, and Bureau of the Census
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
(M,IV.)..-Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M,VI).-Institute of Life
Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association, National
Association of Mutual Savings Banks,. U.S. Savings and
Loan League, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials
(M,IV).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*38. Index of net business formation (M,lll).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census;'
seasonal adjustment'by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days
and over (EOM,VI).-American Bankers Association seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since
December 1964)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M,III).»F.W.
Dodge Corporation
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M,VI). ~
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q,VI). -Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: no seasonal adjustment
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,II). -Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods CV1,V).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,, no seasonal adjustment
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrow
ings) (N1,VI). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System; no seasonal adjustment
96.Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ,III).
National Industrial Conference Board., component industries
are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(Wl,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,VI).- Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
»
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M,VI). ~
First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department: no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (WI,VI). The
Bond Buyer; no seasonal adjustment
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM,I). Department
of Labor,, Bureau of Employment Security: seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments, (M,l). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales (M,ll).-Department of Commerce,. Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the
Census
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M, VI). -Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
25 Roughly Coincident Indicators
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present ((VI,I)
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
(M,I). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,l). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (Nl,l) Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the. Census
11 Lagging Indicators
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total
(Q,III).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
all manufacturing industries (EOM,IV).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System, FRS seasonally adjusted
net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous
month to obtain current figure
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,l).-*
National Industrial Conference Board
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
POSTAGE AND FEES P A I D
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING O F F I C
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Continued
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q,VI).«
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations (ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,V).~Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, National Income Division
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total
(EOM, IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics and Bureau of the Census
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages(WI,VI).-Federal
Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M,l).~Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
505. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M,lll).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
16 Other Selected U.S. Series
81. Index of consumer prices (IKI.V).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
82. Federal cash payments to the public (Q,VII1).-Treasury
Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Q,VIII).-Treasury
Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Q,VIII).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the
President, Bureau of the Budget
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M,VH).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M,VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
99. New orders, defense products industries (M,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry of Inte
national Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
101. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense
(Q,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
... United States, index of industrial production (M,l|).-Se
series 47
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M,VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; no seasonal adjustment
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).-Ministry (
Labour (London); no seasonal adjustment
862. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M,V|I).McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion Bureau o
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
8 U.S. Series
Under Consideration
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. (Q).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and
McGraw-Hill Economics Department
851. Ratio, inventories (BCD series 71) to sales (BCD series
816), manufacturing and trade total (M).- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (BCD series 96) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (M).- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (index: 1957-59 = 100) (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon
components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Q).Departmentof Commerce, Office of Business Economics
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (BCD series
301) to number of persons unemployed (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in
manufacturing to consumer prices (BCD series 81) (M).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M,VIII).~
Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M,VIII).-Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (MTVIII).-Department of Defense, Directorate
for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
95. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product
account (Q,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
136. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut National d
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); nc
seasonal adjustment
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-lstituto Centrale c
Statistica(Rome); no seasonal adjustment
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the Pnm<
Minister (Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
. . . United States,, index of consumer prices (M,V).- Se<
Series 81
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).--The Financia
Times (London); no seasonal adjustment
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Domimon Bureau o
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).~Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
146. France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no seasonal
adjustment
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-lstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); no seasonal adjustment
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
. . . United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M,V).-See series 19
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q).- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87)
(M,VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q,VII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).-Statistische
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
Diffusion Indexes
19 International Comparisons
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M).Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).-Central
Statistical Office (London)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series
bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources.
See sources above for DI, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47,
D54, D58, and D61. Sources for other diffusion indexes are
as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City
Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).-Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonally adjusted by
OECD
126. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).--lstituto Centrale
di Statistica(Rome)
D48. Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment
For Index-Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
@FedFRASER