Full text of Business Conditions Digest : January 1964
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JANUARY 1964
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH DECEMBER
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
Developments
JANUARY
1964
DATA THROUGH DECEMBER
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. BOSS ECKLER, Deputy Director
HOWARD C. GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEU8ER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research nrid Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, Jr, Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
JOSEPH F. DALY, Chief Mathematical Statistician
CALVERT I, DEDRICK, Chief, International Statistical Programs Office
JOHN BAKER, Public Information Officer
Office of the Chief Economic Statistician
Series ESI No. 64-1
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief
SAMUEL L. BROWN, Assistant Chief
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Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis . It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags11 can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes . Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
'with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies. Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for around the 22nd of the month
following the month of data.
1
New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made from
time to time to reflect the change from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation to other series,
changes in components of indexes, etc. These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Charts 1 to 3 were redesigned to incorporate the year 1964. Note that new scales are used
to bring out more clearly the cyclical movements
of the following series: 11, 16, 17, 18, 19, 2 2 , 4 1 ,
42, 86, 87, and 89.
2. The MCD moving average, 5*term, is shown
in chart 1 for series 94, Index of Construction Contracts, Total Value. Seasonally adjusted data are
also plotted for the most recent years to provide an
indication of the variation about the MCD average.
The February issue of Business Cycle Developments is scheduled for release on February 25,
11
Contents
Page
Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue...,
i
ii
,»......
Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation . . ,
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points . . . .
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages. .
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts . . f
How to Read Charts 1, 2, -and 3 . ,
,..
1
1
1
1
2
2
4
4
5
Basic Data
Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
C . NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
Table 1.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: July I960 to
Present
6
11
14
15
18
20
A n a l y t i c a l Measures
Table 2.—Recent Changes for Business Cycle Series
Table 3. — Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During
Recent Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business
Cycle Peaks
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators . . . . ;
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Chart 3.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present .
Table 4.-—Diffusion Indexes for 12 Major Economic Activities:
July 1960 to Present
•
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing Activities: July I960 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified
Time Spans and Percent of Series Rising: January 1963 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
B. (D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods
Industries
C. (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
»
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
E. (D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance,
State Programs
F. ( D 4 l ) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
G. (D47) Index of Industrial Production
.'
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores
iii
30
32
33
34
35
36
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Contents
Cyclical P a t t e r n s
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5 . —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9
Most Recent Expansions
*
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as
Measured at Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates
in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change from
Specific Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After
the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
48
53
57
58
59
Appendixes
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of
Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B.—Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
,
Appendix C.—Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for
Monthly and Quarterly Business Cycle Series
Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1962
to December 1963)
Appendix E.—Summary Description of X-9 and X-10 Versions of the
Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (not shown this
month)
Appendix F.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 19£0 to 1961 (not shown
this month)
Appendix G.—Historical Data for Selected Series
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes
61
62
63
65
66
67
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
To aid users of Business Cycle Developments , a paper "Business
Cycle Indicators -The Known and the Unknown" by Julius Shiskin was included
as appendix H of the September 1963 issue. This paper explains what is
known about business cycle indicators, the problems of using them, and the
research needed to improve their usefulness , It was presented at the 34th
session of the International Statistical Institute in Ottawa, Canada, on August
24, 1963. A limited number of copies of this article are available, free of
charge. If you would like copies, write to the Chief Economic Statistician,
Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C., 20233,
v
Descriptions
and
Procedures
Business C y c l e Series
Intensive research over many years has provided
a record of the typical sequence of changes in economic processes during a business cycle; more
specifically, a list of significant series that usually
lead, those that usually move with, and those that
usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. The series have been grouped,
in accordance with the NBER classification, as
"leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators. In addition, other series are included in
this report for a more complete coverage of the
national economy.
The series are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators,—Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators . —About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series .
Other series.—Additional U.S. series with business cycle significance are also shown. Some of
these series, such as change in money supply,
merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
deficit, represent important factors in the economy,
but they have not qualified as indicators for various
reasons, such as irregularity in timing . Finally,
industrial production indexes for several countries
which have important trade relations with the United
States are presented.
Method of Presentation
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table 1).— Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 2-6). —
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( l) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, (2) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and (3) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Seasonal and Related Statistical
Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series
are as follows: 4, 5, 9, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 30,
55, 62, 81, 82, 83, 84, 90, 91, 92, 97, and 128.
1
Descriptions and Procedures
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using Method II. The adjustment factors are
shown in appendix table D, except for series 97
which is the sum of seasonally adjusted components, and series 9 which is based on unpublished
source data. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by
the collecting agency will be substituted for the series mentioned above whenever they are published.
Method II adjusts for changes in average climatic
conditions and institutional arrangements during
tha year. Adjustments for variations in the number
of trading days are also made for some series; for
example, new building permits. Further adjustments for variable holidays, such as Easter, are
mc.de for certain series; for example, retail sales
of apparel.
Studies are now underway to determine whether similar adjustments for Labor Day,
Thanksgiving Day, and the day of the week upon
which Christmas falls would be useful.
Studies of the effects of unusual weather upon
some series have also been started. It is important
to note, however, that present methods adjust for
average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this average; that is, present methods
are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal
weather at any time of the year. For this reason,
many seasonally adjusted series, such as housing
starts, will tend to be low in months when the
weather is unusually bad and high in months when
the weather is unusually good. While it eventually
may be possible, Census methods do not at present
make any adjustments for such variations.
MCD Miving Averages
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
the cyclical movements in a monthly series . This
span is usually longer than a single month because
month-to-month changes are often dominated by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used 12-month span (change from the same month
a year ago), and is different for different series
(see appendix C for MCD values and method of
computation).
MCD is, on average, the first interval of months
for which the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and
remains so.
It is small for smooth series and
large for irregular series.
The differences between raoving averages of the period equal to MCD
are commensurate with the differences between
seasonably adjusted values separated by the same
MCD span; thus, the month- to -month differences
in a 3-month moving average are commensurate
with differences in seasonally adjusted values over
3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have
about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular
series, such as business failures and Federal cash
payments, will show their cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for
such smooth series as industrial production and
personal income.1 MCD moving averages are showr
for some series in chart 1. To provide an indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted for years
beginning with 1958.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary
seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are
usually larger than those computed from historical
serie$ and shown in appendix C. MCD is usually
computed for a fairly long period, one covering
both expansions and contractions. Since the pace
of change varies from phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will not provide ar
accurate estimate of the span over which to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery
when expansion has usually been rapid and too lo\\
during the late stages of expansion when the rate oi
advance has usually been small. This limitation
should also be borne in mind when making use oi
this measure.
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Four kinds of analytical measures are presented—rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change. —There is considerable interesl
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. 2 For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Rates of change are helpful
in judging and appraising trends of acceleration ot
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-tomonth rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises.
J
For a more complete description of MCD and its
use in studying economic series, see Business
Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1,
ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University
Press: 1961).
2
Various terms are used to describe the phases
of the business cycle. In this report both "contraction" and "recession" are used to describe
the declining phase. No difference in meaning is
intended.
Descriptions and Procedures
Diffusion indexes. —Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
Df the aggregate and they measure how widespread
i business change is . They vary between the limits
Df 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling) . Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over
1 -month intervals (January-February, FebruaryMarch, etc.) and generally for either 3- or 5-month
intervals depending upon the irregularity of the
series. Quarterly series are shown at 1-quarter
or 4-quarter intervals. The indexes based on 1month intervals are more "current" but they are
also more irregular than the 3- or 5-month indexes
(see
chart 2) . Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes. When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
3n 16 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
Df the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D 4 1 , D 4 7 , D 5 4 ,
and D58) . Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over 1-month and
either 3- or 5-month spans while, for 1 indicator
(D58), comparisons are over 1-month spans only.
The 12 other diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely related to the above 9 indicators.
They include two indexes on capital appropriations
( 6 0 2 companies and 15 industries)—NBER indexes
based on data from the National Industrial Conference Board; the Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based on monthly reports of changes
in profits (200 companies); and First National City
Bank of New York index based on quarterly profit
reports (700 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and anticipated—for the following:
Manufacturers' sales (800 companies) and new
orders (400 companies), based on data from Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity
groups), based on data from the Association of
American Railroads; and new plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries), based on data from
the Office of Business Economics and the Securities
and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments .
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Tinning distributions .—Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning
point.
Each month a timing distribution is constructed which shows the number of series reaching high values during each month of the expansion.
The tinning distribution is summarized by showing
the number of series reaching new highs and the
percent currently high for each of several recent
months (see table 3) .
Similar distributions of
"lows" will be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident
series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before
the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
expansions and at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions .) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is
taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table l ) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter H JL" to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables. — Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes.
These
Descriptions and Procedures
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
o:r recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Directions of change for each index component
are shown for consecutive months and, depending
upon the irregularity of the series, for either 3- or
5-month spans.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle—whether it is in an expansion
or contraction.
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In table 7 of this report, the current expansion
is measured from the May I960 reference peak to
the month of latest reported data. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are computed from
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates . Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same number of months for
each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak
dates are different, depending on the length of the
contractions for each period. Also, for those earlier periods of expansion that were shorter than
the current one, the comparisons made in table 7
reflect the status at a point after a new contraction
had set in. This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares, in this respect,
with earlier expansions.
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates (table 8) . This type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from
the troxtgh level so many months after the upswing
began. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 7: For earlier expansions that were shorter than the current one, the
comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing
changes over the span from the most recent business cycle peak to the current month and over
equal spa,ns from previous reference peaks. This
type of comparison is designated as representing
changes from reference peak levels and from ref-
erence peak dates •
These comparisons will b<
made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuation!* 01
the basis of reference dates (which are the sam<
for all series), comparisons are made on the basii
of specific peak and trough dates identified £o:
each series. For example, the specific peak ii
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 refer
ence peak is April I960; the specific peak in stocl
prices is July 1959 (See appendix B).
Specifi<
cycle comparisons are shown in table 9. Thes<
comparisons differ from those shown for referenc*
cycles in that they show the status only up to th<
specific peak date. For some series past specifi<
expansions were shorter than the current one and
therefore, the earlier comparisons span fewes
months than those for the current expansion.
In order to make historical comparisons, it ii
frequently necessary to use data for a closely rolated series for cycles prior to the initial dat<
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered onl^j
approximate. Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919. The principal cases of this
sort are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units startet
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employmen
in manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarter!}
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, tola!
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Productior
worker wage cost per unit) .
Charts
Two types of charts are used to highlight thi
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series ( charts 1, 2, and 3) . —
These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of eacfc
series against the background of expansions anc
recessions in general business activity from 1946
to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts
indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings oJ
shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates
(ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession 'will be entered only after a trough has been
designated.
Five ratio scales and several arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the
various series. The scale selected for each series
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates oi
change of various series can be compared with
each other only where scales are identical. See the
diagram, page 5, for additional help in using these
charts .
Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) . —These
charts compare the performance of each series
during the current expansion with its performance
Descriptions and Procedures
during the expansion phase of previous business
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts
is disregarded, and instead the data are alined at
the strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions, the reference trough (chart 4) and specific trough (chart 5 ) . Thus these charts facilitate
judgements on the vigor of the current expansion
relative to cyclical movements during the corresponding expansions of previous cycles.
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made.
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current busi-
ness or
reference cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the
corresponding phase of previous reference cycles
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases
of previous specific cycles in that series. In both
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, the
levels of the preceding peaks are alao alined and
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs are
also alined. See the section, "Comparisons of
Cyclical Patterns' 1 , for more detailed descriptions
of these comparisons ,
Peak (?} of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
af Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Such data may be the
table-! figures, MCD moving
averages, or diffusion indexescharts 2 and 3.)
Parallel lines indicate a _.,
in co.ntinuity«e.g,, data not
available, change in sample resorted, change in base used for
:omputations, etc.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted
("I" = first quarter)
See bock coyer for complete
Mtles and sources of series
ed line indicates anticipated
Solid line with quarterly
plotting points indicates
quarterly data
Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-I" is
a^ semi logarithm scale with 1 cycle;
""scale L-2", a semilogarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (F«b.)
P
T
[Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators
1. Avg, workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (ho
30. Nonogri. p acements, oil Indus
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees-inverted scole)
4. Temp, layoff, all Indus, (thous.--inverted
scale. MCD movtnq ovg.i—5-term)
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl
insur. (thous.—inverted scale)
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
S«e "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962 1963
1964
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
[New investment commitments
i
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
i m
6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol.)
24. New orders, mach. and equip, Indus, (bil. dol.)
9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (m
floor area. MCD moving ovg.—6-term)
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol,)
11. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bit. dol.)
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (millions.
MCD moving ovg.--6-term)
29. New bldg. permits, private housing units
(index: l957-59=fOO)
1948
1949 1950
1951 1952 1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955 1956
1957 1958
1959 1960 1*61
1962 1963
1964
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (F«b.)
P
T
w businesses and business failures
12- Change, no. of businesses (thous.)
orporqtions (thous.)
14= Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.—
inverted scale. MCD moving avg.--6-term)
15. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.«
inverted scale. MCD moving avg.--6-term)
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952 1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955 1956
1957
1958
1959 1960 1961
1962 1963
1964
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
35
16. Corpo-rate profits, after taxes, Q (bil. dol.
30
25
2
20
§
15
no
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg, (index: 1957-59=100)
V-.
105
$N
100 -j
95
15.0
12.5
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg., Q {cents]
10.0
7.5
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
ail industries, Q (percent)
15.0
12.5
7.5
100
90
80
70
60
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks i
(index: 1941-43^10)
50
40
30
20
1948
1949
1950
T951
195Z
1953
See "How to Reocf Owrts 1, 2, and 3/page 5.
1954
1955
1957
1958
1959 1960 1941
1962 1963 1964
2
Basic Data
10
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (F.b.)
P
T
[inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices |
21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus., Q (bil. dol.)
'\ :>,:i :••''••••.
n book vqlue, mfg. and '•'.-.,
entories (bil. dol.)
• . ;
20. Change in book value, mtrs, inventories,
materials, and supplies (bil. do!.)
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
32. vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bit. dol.)
80
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
11
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
60
Employment and unemployment
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (millions)
»l
50
65
42. Total nonagr. employment (millions)
60
50
3
43. Unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)
4
5
1
6
7
^|vl:40. Unemployment rate, married males
-l:--:vi'
(percent—inverted scale)
8
2
3
4
1
5
6
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate
(percent—inverted scale)
3
4
5
|
6
7
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957=100)
120
100 <?
-4
80 1
60
1948
1*49
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960 1961
1962 1963
Basic Data
12
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident I n d i c a t o r s — C o n .
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (F«k.)
P
T
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars, Q (bil. dot.);
49. GNP in current dollars, Q (bil, dot.),!
57. Final sales, Q (bil. do!.)
-J 250
1948
1949
1950
See "How to Read Charts
1951
1952
1953
1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1962
1963
1964
Basic Data
CHART 1
13
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
2.4
2.2
2.0 2
~so
u
1.8
1.6
500
450 _
,*
400 §
350
130
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil. do!.)
120
110^
100
1
90
22
20
18 S
1
16
14
no
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
(index: 1957-59=100)
100 _
-i
90 I
1950
1951 1952 1953
fee °*bw * R*od Charts 1, 2, and 3," jM^e 5.
1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
1962 1963 1964
14
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
(H~.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (F«b.)
P
T
[investment expenditures]
61. Bus. expend,, new plant and equip., Q (bil. dot.)
62, Labor cost per unit of output, mfg, (index: 1957-59
ost per unit of output
63. Labor cost per dol. of real GNP, 0 (index; 1957-59^100)
64. Book value of mfrs/ inventories (oil. dol.)
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (btl. dol.)
66. Consumer installment debt (bit, dol.)
67. Bank rotes on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent)
1948
11M9
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5,
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962 1963
1964
Basic Data
15
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aufl.)
T
(May) (F«k)
P
T
2.4
2.2
2.0
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bit. dol.) |
1.8
CH
1.6 -a>
1.4 1
1.2
1.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
CM
-i
1.2 -so
o
1.0
as
+1.2
88, Merchandise trade balance (bit
+.8
89. Excess of receipts or payments in
U.S. balance of payments, Q (bit. dol.)
+.8
+.4
0
InlummliiliiliiUiilnlii
1948
1949 1950
1951
1952 1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 1, and 3," page 5.
1955 1956
1957 1958
1959 1960 1961
1962 1963
1964
Basic Data
16
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
D h| Other U.S. S e r i e s with Business Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e - - C o n ,
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
(All*)
P
T
Federal budget and military obligations) %''.;
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
82. Fed,, cash payments to public (bil. dot.
MCD moving avg.*-6 term)
rea. cash
casn receipts
receipis from
irom ppublic (bil. dol
83. Fed.
MCD moving avg.«6-term)
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bit. dol.
MCD moving ovg.—6-term)
95. Surplus or deficit. Fed. income and
product acct., Q (bil. dol.)
-
90, Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.-o-term)
91. Defense Dept. oblig., total (bil. dot.
MCD moving avg.—o-term)
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.—6-term)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "Mow to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Basic Data
17
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
D J Other U.S. S e r i e s with B u s i n e s s Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e — C o n .
(MOV.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
85. Change in money supply (percent)
98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent)
93. Free reserves (bil. doi
81. Consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100)
94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100.i
MCD moving avg.--5-term)
;
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol.)
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.) L
•**»»««.•..:..
-.*.
«—•--•---•••••MHM.MWMMMMAMIIMMMMftMUMMMMMUAfHiCUlUUMAUAU^
1'Mtt
1949
1950
1951
1952 1953 1954 1955
See "Hfow to Read Charts 1, 2, ond 3," page 5.
1956 1957
1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
1964
18
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
E || International C o m p a r i s o n s of Industrial Production
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(May) (F«b.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
T
industrial production indexes
121. OECD countries (index: 1957-59^100)
122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59 -100)
123. Canada (index: 1957-59-100)
47. United States (index: 1957-59-100)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
$«• 'How to Read Charts 1, 1, and 3," page 5.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Basic Data
19
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
E || I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o m p a r i s o n s of Industrial P r o d u c t i o n — C o n ,
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
•-July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
[ Industrial production |ndexes--con. |
160
125. West Germany (index; 1957-59-100)
140
1203
-2
100 §
80
180
160
140
CN
128. Japan (index; 1957-59-100)
•"'..
120 SQ
100 *
80
160
140
126. France (index: 1957-59=100)^;
120 2
100 *
80
180
160
140
127. Italy (index: 1957-59=100)
100"
80
60
40
1948
1949 1950
1951 1952 1953
ee "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
20
Basic Data
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by (E3 ; the reverse ia
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only ami do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are fthown on the back cover. The "r" lnd:Uate«
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and
month
1. Average 2. Accession 30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff 4. Number of
rate, manu- persons on
workweek of rate, manu- cultural
production facturing
placements, facturing temporary
layoff, all
all indusworkers,
tries
manufacindustries1
turing
(Per 100
(Per 100
(Hours per
prod, wlcr.) employees ) ( Thous . )employees ) (Thous.)
5. Avg, weekly
initial claims
for unemployment insurance,
State programs
(Thous.)
6. Value of 24. Value of
mfrs.! new mfrs . ' new
orders, dur-orders, maable goods chinery and
equipment
industries
(Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.)
1960
JU]y
September
October
December
1961
39.8
39.6
39.5
39.6
39.3
©33. 4
3.6
3.8
3.9
©3.5
3:6
3.6
475
472
476
471
453
459
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.8
177
154
153
166
128
183
335
363
351
373
385
381
15,25
15.65
15.69
14.50
14.62
14. 86
2.78
2.78
2. 75
2. 69
©2,60
2.86
39.2
39.4
39.4
39.5
39.6
39.8
39.9
40.0
39.8
40.3
40.6
40.3
3.9
3.8
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.1
4.1
3.8
04.4
4.3
4.1
©444
447
459
448
469
494
493
512
507
524
540
551
2.9
©2.9
2.4
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.0
173
©222
215
141
150
151
101
136
127
113
115
127
393
©429
379
381
358
334
34S
316
329
304
305
296
©13.95
14.31
14.53
15.51
15.59
15.89
15.92
16.12
15.97
16.26
16.74
17.26
2.76
2,74
2.71
2. 74
2.70
2.80
3.03
3.07
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.6
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.2
40.7
40.2
40.4
40.2
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
557
559
572
574
0592
557
557
550
555
554
559
540
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
154
082
118
112
116
114
128
131
120
129
139
114
304
291
279
280
300
309
308
303
300
300
298
317
17.70
17.70
17.15
17,02
17.22
16.65
16.91
16,59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33
3.15
3.30
2,97
3.31
3.10
3.02
3.07
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.16
3.07
3.7
3.9
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.9
4.0
3.7
3.9
r3.9
P3.5
(NA)
552
557
557
563
554
543
541
538
555
569
524
522
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.7
|RJpl.7
(NA)
179
112
108
146
87
85
130
134
100
139
142
91
316
295
277
288
287
288
286
285
284
276
0275
335
18.47
18.23
18.78
019.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
17.07
18.24
r!8.62
r!8.l6
P17.73
3.25
3.21
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
r3.44
r3.26
0p3.45
February
March
April
May
,
July
August
October
a.BB
2,91
2.98
2.96
1962
March
April
May
July
August
October
November
1963
January
March
April
May. . . ,
June . . .,
July..,,
August
December
1964
40.4
40.3
40.5
40.1
40.5
40.5
40.4
40.3
(HI 40. 7
40.6
r40.5
P40.5
2
327
February.
March
April.. „
May.
^•Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series,Prior to April 1962,
the 3 195C Census is used as the benchmark.
tfeek ended January 11, 1964.
21
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES; JULY 1960 TO PRESENT.-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (-*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by fiD; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).- Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r11 indicates
revised; "p11, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
9. Construction contracts
awarded for
commercial and
industrial
buildings
Year and
month
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
1960
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
(Bil.
dol.)
38.87
39.38
38.96
39.44
39.44
38.15
3.41
3.41
3.44
3.34
3.20
3.49
*
36.21
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61
41.69
3.51
3.39
©3.20
3.28
3.27
3.39
3.57
3.66
3.40
3.48
3.66
3.50
PeftpTTibeT*. .T , , , ,
38.99
44.10
45.19
40.87
45.39
42.99
39.86
42.65
39.90
41.62
41.68
42.48
3.71
3.98
3.70
3.95
3.77
3.69
3.72
3.62
3.53
3.67
3.81
3.92
44-94
46.98
38.92
37.87
47.95
(353.97
44.78
45.31
42.55
51.28
42.66
(NA)
3.86
3.83
3.75
3.97
(H14.30
4.00
3.94
3.92
4.02
r4.18
P4.29
(NA)
July
September
11. Newly approved capital
appropr iat ionst
602 manufacturing corpo-*
rations
(Bil, dol.)
©ll78
2.10
7. New private
nonfarm dwelling units
started
(Ann. rate,
thous . )
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building permits
12. Net change
in business
population,
operating
businesses
13. Number
of new business incorporations
(1957-59=100)
( Thous . )
(Number)
1,184
1,285
1,113
1,210
1,192
©1,041
91.5
87.8
88.4
89.9
90.8
©87.0
1,216
1,199
1,305
1,133
1,215
1,340
1,305
1,252
1,453
1,381
1,319
1,324
89.5
88.2
91.3
91.4
93.2
98.7
98.9
101.9
100.2
104.2
101.8
99.0
1,392
1,253
1,460
1,489
1,501
1,366
1,423
1,459
1,328
1,491
1,564
1,541
102.8
109.8
105.0
111,5
103.7
107.1
108,6
106.3
110.2
109.5
114.9
114.5
+14
+10
15,828
15,114
15,112
15,035
14,264
14,097
1961
February
March
April
May
July
September
October
December
1962
January
February
April
ffey
June
July.. ... *
August
October
1963
January
February*
March
April
May
June
July....
October
November
1964
January
March
April
Mav
June .-
l!84
l!93
2.23
2.10
2^34
2.02
2*.u
2.71
2.16
2 '.65
ED! 15
(NA)
1,317
1,353
1,549
1,590
1,590
1,554
1,573
1,434
1,697
(H]rl,807
rl,525
pl,548
110.0
109.3
112 ..9
111.3
117.9
120.5
115.1
111.4
120.9
125.3
r!21.1
5Dpl31.4
©+6
+10
+10
+10
+11
+12
+11
+11
+11
+12
50+12
(NA)
©13,607
14,570
14,658
15,327
15,298
15,431
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
16,149
15,711
15,279
15,775
15,727
15,372
15,363
14,990
15,171
15,216
15,232
15,121
14,892
14,767
14,457
15,398
15,604
15,257
15,756
15,512
15,356
16,201
15,575
016,510
15,641
(NA)
22
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT.Xontinued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series arc indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by QT] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and d©
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
1960
July
Augrust* ........
November
1961
Jar Aiary
March
April
May
juiv
September
October
December
1962
March
Apr^l
May
June'
July
September
*
October
November
December. ......
1963
February
April
May
July..
September
October
November
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures1
15. Business 16. Corpofailures with rate profits
liabilities after taxes
of $100,000
and over
17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
index, manufacturing
(Mil. dol.)
(Number per
week)
(1957-59100)
71.04
94.66
86.02
85.98
80.44
82.78
38
36
43
©43
37
41
77.79
83.73
116.17
76.88
82.96
86.69
80.15
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
71.81
38
41
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38
101.53
86.03
74.89
108.58
94.54
91.70
107.48
132.64
103.73
122.39
98.94
90.41
37
GO 32
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
153.15
90.04
r90.88
89.72
122.31
89.37
142.28
5958.40
92.59
94.28
261.59
76.63
49
42
41
40
54
38
38
42
44
44
38
37
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
2CL9
20 \l
©19! 2
2l! 6
22.0
24^3
24^2
24^6
24^3
25 is
25^4
2o!8
£]27!5
1964
March
April
Mav
1
CQ- June 1960.
Average for January 13, 14, and 15, 1964.
2
(NO
100.4
99.9
99.9
100.0
99.9
98.9
99.2
©98.9
99.0
100.0
100.2
100.9
101.2
102.6
102.2
102.0
101.7
102.1
101.2
101.0
101.4
100.6
101.1
100.7
101.3
100.0
102.4
101.3
101.3
100.9
100.7
100.0
100.8
100.6
102.1
1)103.1
102.0
100.7
101.5
rl01.4
rlOl.l
plOl.l
18. Profits
(before taxes) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations
22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
industries
19. Index ofstock prises,
500 common
stocks*
( Cents.)
(Percent)
(1941-43=10)
7!8
8 '.4
7.2
&'.i
©o!o
©7.7
7^6
8^5
7\9
8^5
(Ssio
9^3
s!2
9il
8.1
9li
s!i
8!9
8^3
9^1
7*.9
9.'l
8.*5
9^5
8^5
09^5
(M)
(NA)
55.84
56.51
54-81
©53.73
55.47
56.80
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
71.74
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56,97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72.62
074.17
8
76 .a
21. Change in
bus . inventories, farm and
nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment
(Ann. ra^e.
bil. do;i.)
+2! 7
-2.3
©-4J
+l!l
+3^5
+*l\2
13+8 !l
+6)5
+3^6
+4.0
+sii
+^3
+4^2
°+5*3
Basic Data
23
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-.Continoed
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated, by © and current highs, by (H~J ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
31. Change in
book value of
manufacturing
and trade inventories,
total
20. Change in
book value of
mf rs .! inventories,
materials,
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
37. Purchased
materials,
percent reporting higher
inventories
(Percent
reporting)
26. Buying policy, production
matls., percent
reporting commitments 60
days or longer*
32. Vendor
performance,
percent
reporting
slower
deliveries*1
25. Change in
manufacturers!
unfilled orders, durable
goods industries2
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices*
(1957-59-100)
1960
July
September
December
1961
February
April
May
June
July
August
October
November
December. ......
+2.4
-1.8
+2.4
-1.5
-1.7
'©-8.9
+0.3
-0.3
-2.5
-0.5
-1.8
©-3.4
42
37
41
38
41
39
54
50
49
50
50
©48
36
40
41
39
38
38
-0.56
+0.33
+0.13
-0.75
-0.30
-0.19
101.6
102.1
101.2
99.7
98.5
©96.8
-4.9
-3.1
-8.1
+1.2
+0.4
-0.1
+1.5
+2.3
+5.0
+3.3
+7.4
+6.5
-1.5
-1.8
-1.9
-1.4
-1.2
-1.5
+0.8
+2.9
+2.2
+0.3
+1.3
0+6.6
41
©35
39
42
46
43
46
54
57
56
52
55
51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54
38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53
-0.39
-0.07
-0.42
+0.36
+0.07
+0.11
+0.37
+0.42
+0.01
+0.25
+0.41
+0.65
97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
(3104.4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0
+4-3
+6.6
+5.3
+1.8
+6.6
+5.8
+4.2
+3.4
+7.1
+5.5
+1.3
+6.0
+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2.3
-0.2
+1.8
-0.1
+0.5
-1.7
©58
57
57
55
53
48
45
46
44
45
49
48
.57
0)61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51
56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.63
+0.62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94-5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
46
48
46
49
57
57
55
50
50
45
42
41
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
1360
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
13 +0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
r-0.05
r+0.38
r+0.10
r-0.11
p-0.37
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7
1962
April
May
July
August
fieptejrfop'r
October
November
December
1963
t
April
May
June
July
October
November
+1.3
+2.5
+2.1
+2.4
+4.0
+3.8
+4.4
+0.5
+4.1
r+6.5
[H]p+7.4
(NA)
+0.9
0.0
0.0 '
+0.7
r-0.6
+0.5
+1.0
+1.8
r-1.2
r+1.7
p-0.6
(NA)
1964
January
February. , T . . . .
tterch
April
May
1
©=
2l
CQ3
mrch 1960.
January 1960.
Average for January 13, 14, and 15, 1964.
3
98.5
24
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (p and current highs, by [M] ; the reverse la
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimates; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
41, Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
Year and
month
(Thous.)
1960
July
August
(Thous.)
( Percent )
40. Unemployment
rate, mar-1
ried males
(Percent)
45, Avg. weekly
insured unemployment rate,
State programs
(Percent)
46. Index of 47, Index of
help-wanted industrial
advertising production
in newspapers
(1957=100)
(1957-59*
100)
54,395
54,352
54,248
54,160
54,015
53,752
61,090
60,982
61,114
60,857
61,142
©60,801
5.48
5.66
5.60
5.98
6.20
6.60
3.72
3.85
3.80
4.28
4.22
4-74
4.67
5.10
5.38
5.68
6.27
©6.33
90,1
89.4
82.6
84.6
82.2
CD 79.0
109.1
108.7
107. 8
107.0
105.4
103.6
53,725
©53,541
53,615
53,713
53,911
54,165
54,294
54,444
54,430
54,593
54,825
54,927
60,980
60,912
6l,3H
61,111
61,091
61, US
61,254
61,283
61,330
61,476
61,766
61,788
6.68
7.03
6.82
7.01
©7.11
6.91
6.96
6.67
6.69
6.42
6.07
5.98
4.78
©5.09
4.72
4.91
5.00
4.78
4.74
4.61
4.54
4.12
3.94
3.91
6.15
6.32
6.26
5.91
5.61
5O2
5.29
5.22
5.10
5.04
5.08
4.81
79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
99.1
96.9
©103.3
103.4
103.8
106.6
108.8
110.9
112.0
113.4
112.0
113.5
114.8
115.6
54,946
55,223
55,368
55,703
55,822
55,908
56,010
56,019
56,125
56,195
56,205
56,211
61,882
62,148
62,356
62,295
62,552
62,541
62,715
63,017
63,074
63,036
62,708
63,248
5.84
5.69
5.49
5.58
5.52
5.50
5.43
5.67
5.63
135.34
"5. 76
5.54
3.81
3.59
3.53
3.69
3.48
3.64
3.54
3.54
3.43
3.35
3.43
3.57
4.71
4.52
4.41
3.93
SJ3.82
3.96
4.25
4.41
4.38
4.46
4.57
4.67
102.3
105.9
©106.3
106.1
106.0
98.5
97.9
97.0
92.8
96.8
95.9
Q95.2
114.6
116.3
117.3
117.8
118.3
118.4
119.4
119.4
119.8
119.2
119.5
119.1
56,333
56,458
56,706
56,873
57,060
57,194
57,340
57,344
57,453
r57,646
r 57, 623
®p57,805
62,988
63,245
63,628
63,851
63,643
63,693
64,137
64,079
64,192
64,156
64,153
QB64,323
5.77
6.09
5.59
5.65
5.91
5.66
5.61
5.48
5.55
5.51
5.85
5.54
3.81
4.04
3.50
3.37
3.37
3.12
3.14
2.96
2.92
W2.91
3.17
3.35
4.75
4.64
4.36
4.19
4.15
4.13
4.08
4.14
4.00
4.03
4.16
4.29
e97.5
elOO.5
e98.5
100.2
95.9
94.7
96.2
94.0
92.9
99.6
100.3
p!03.8
119.2
120.2
121.3
122.5
124.5
125.8
126.5
125.7
r!25.7
r!26.5
r!26.7
(fflpl27.2
October
December
42. Total 43. Unemnonagri cul- ployment
tural em- rate, total1
ployment,
labor force
survey1
*.
50, Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol,)
446 !a
437 !l
1961
January
February
Jferch
April
May
,
June
July
August
September
October
November * . . . . * .
December
*
©434^0
443.4
4'iCU
463 !l
1962
January
March
April
May,
July
August
September. . , , . ,
October
November ....*..
December. , , , , . .
46?! 8
474.6
475 .*6
481.4
1963
January
February. . . . * . *
March
April
May
June
July
September
December,
485^3
489^4
495*1
ffij e502*3
1964
January
2
4.52
March
April
Jfety
Baglnning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to Anril 1962
the 2 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
'
Week ended January 4, 1964.
Basic Data
25
Toble 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY I960 TO PRESENT.-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by GT| ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3,, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
1960
49. Gross national product
in current
dollars
57. Final
sales
(series 49
minus 21)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate.
bil. dol.)
July
503.5
500.7
502^1
504.4
©500.4
504.7
512.5
511^4
521 '.9
518 !3
537 is
536! 5
544.5
536 3
552.4
546.0
556!g
553^1
565^2
56l! 2
571.8
566! 6
tfey
579^6
June
July
August T t . .T 1 1 . .
r575.4
588.7
r584.5
(E)e6o6!o
06594^7
November
December
1961
March
April
May
July
51. Bank
debits outside
NYC, 343
centers
52. Personal
income
53. Labor
income in
mining, manufacturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
55. Index of
54. Sales of
retail stores wholesale
prices except farm
products and
foods
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3
402.7
403.5
404.4
405.2
404.5
©403.2
108.3
107.6
107.0
106.9
105.5
103.7
18,113
18,195
18,207
18,298
18,080
18,008
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903,8
1,916.9
404.4
405.3
410.1
411.7
414.5
417.3
420.8
419.1
420.5
424.3
428.4
431.3
104.0
©103.3
104.2
106.0
107.1
108.5
108.9
108.5
108.3
110.1
111.7
111.8
17,942
17,965
17,971
©17,811
18,003
18,098
18,234
18,373
18,371
18,494
18,775
18,879
101.0
101.1
101.1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9
2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044.4
2,015.0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9
430.1
434.0
436.4
439.5
440.8
441.7
443.5
444.6
445.5
447.7
449.9
452.1
111.3
112.8
114.0
116.1
116.0
115.9
116.6
116.8
116:7
116.5
116.9
116.5
18,990
19,139
19,320
19,389
19,585
19,311
19,658
19,671
19,844
19,837
20,112
20,253
100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7
2,H8.0
2,085.6
2,095.7
2,198.1
2,150.5
2,105.3
2,276.6
2,190.0
2,275.0
2,315.8
2,246.9
®P2,318.3
454.0
452.9
454.8
457.4
460.1
462.6
464.2
465.1
467.3
471.2
r472.6
(B)p475.2
116.4
117.1
117.8
119.4
120.8
121.6
r!22.1
121.8
122.6
123.4
r!23.3
[H]pl24.1
20,387
20,374
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486
20,719
20,666
20,426
r20,7l6
r20,622
(3p21,548
100.5
100.5
100.5
©100.2
100.5
100.8
100.9
101.0
100.8
101.1
101.0
WlOl.2
101.3
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.0
1962
March
April.
May
July
Pecemhei*. * * » . - 1963
January
March
April
1964
January.
torch
April
Hfey
Hfeek ended January 14, 1964.
1
101.0
Basic Data
26
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD an^ current highs, by [H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identifleatior. only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" Indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment,
total
Year and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1960
July
August
September
October
November
35^90
35^50
1961
January
33^85
Miroh...
A-oril
Mny
©33^50
July
34*70
September
October
35^6
1962
January
February
March
April
35.70
May
June
*.
36.95
July
September. . , . „ ,
November
38 '.35
3?! 95
62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, total
manufacturing
63. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, total
GNP
(1957-59*100) (1957-59^100)
100.9
101.4
101.2
101.2
101.7
102.2
101.9
102.1
102.0
100.8
100.4
99.6
99.3
©98.1
98.4
98.5
99.1
98.7
99.4
99.5
99.0
99.9
99.7
100.1
99.7
El 101.0
98.9
99.7
99.5
99.9
105.2
105.2
106.0
106.0
105^8
©104.7
105.8
106.5
107.1
106.6
64. Book value
of manufacturers* inventories, all
manufacturing
industries
65. Book value 66. Consumer
of mfrs.1 in- installment
debt
ventories of
finished goods,
all manufacturing indus.
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
54.4
54.4
54.6
54.4
54.3
53.8
18.4
18.4
18.5
18.5
18.6
18.5
41,267
41,503
41,788
41,888
42,036
42,139
53.7
53.7
53.5
53,4
53.4
©53.4
53.6
53.9
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.1
18.4
18.4
18.3
18.4
18.3
18.4
©18.3
18.5
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.8
42,109
42,035
42,041
©41,667
41,870
41,895
41,903
41,987
42,052
42,221
42,442
42,774
55.4
55.7
56.0
56.1
56.4
56.3
56.9
57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8
19.0
19.1
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8
42,960
43,220
43,532
44,017
44,437
44,826
45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174
57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
r59,3
(H)p59,7
(Ntt)
19.9
19.9
20.0
20.1
20.1
20.3
20.4
20.6
r20.6
20.6
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,588
51,069
51,410
51,941
1352,324
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
(Percent)
4^97
4*99
4! 97
4! 97
4^99
©4^96
4^98
5! 6i
4^99
Eis'oa
1963
February
March
April
May.
36^95
3s!o5
July
EJ40.'66
September
October
November
a40*.75
1964
January
a40.75
March
April
May
a41.70
99.4
100.1
99.0
99.1
98.3
97.9
99.1
100.4
99.3
r99.8
r99.8
plOO.O
107 !l
108.3
108 ,*3
(EDel08.5
EJp2i.o
(NA)
(NA)
s!66
sioi
5.01
5166
Basic Data
27
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
86. Exports,
excluding
military aid
shipments,
total
Year and
month
87. Gen- 88. Mereral
chandise
imports, trade
total
balance
(series 86
minus 87)
89. Excess,
receipts (+)
or payments
(-)'in U.S.
balance of
payments
82. Federal cash
payments
to the
public
83. Fed- 84. Federal cash eral cash
receipts surplus (+)
from the or deficit
public
(-)
95. Surplus
(+) or deficit (-),
Federal income and
product acct.
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.)
1960
July
1,706.5
1,624.8
1,647.2
1,667.6
1,680.6
1,645.3
1,270.7
1,255.8
1,220.6
1,206.0
1,161.7
1,124.8
+435.8
+369.0
+426.6
+461.6
+518.9
+520.5
1,622.7
1,711.6
1,750.7
1,661.5
1,585.1
1,581.9
1,688.5
1,688.9
1,678.4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8
1,161.4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152.0
1,152.9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5
+461.3
+561.8
+587.8
+509.5
+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3
1,654.8
1,812.1
1,674.4
1,802.6
1,782.1
1,838.3
July
1,728.9
1,687.3
1,943.3
1,492.8
November
1,695.2
ppopniheT*, T T * . . , 1,838.9
1963
982.2
2,130.7
1,990.8
March
1,918.1
April
May
1,900.5
1,813.6
July
1,779.4
1,896.6
August
1,991.6
September. .....
1,899.2
October.
1,940.2
(NA)
December
1,327.4
1,315.4
1,339.3
1,363.8
1,386.4
1,342.4
1,361.8
1,364.2
1,476.4
1,318.9
1,431.7
1,371.9
+327 .4
+496.7
+335.1
+438.8
+395.7
+495.9
+367.1
+323.1
+466.9
+173.9
+263.5
+467.0
1,093.2
1,493.2
1,484.3
1,423.3
1,406.2
1,410.2
1,469.2
1,532.5
1,452.8
1,475.0
1,480.0
(NA)
-111.0
+637.5
+506.5
+494.8
+494.3
+403.4
+310.2
+364.1
+538.8
+424.2
+460.2
(NA)
September
December
-1,018
1
-1,257
91.5
97.4
95.0
92.7
102.0
96.3
93.6
104.0
100.5
91.7
101.4
99.5
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
-0.6
+3.2
95.5
95-4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106.5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106.5
104.3
94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101.7
-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11.1
-8.8
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6
115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2
101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
104.4
111.2
110.1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109.0
-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2
116.5
106.5
116.0
117.3
116.1
107.2
126.1
118.4
122>. 2
125.4
111.9
122.9
107.7
109. 8
106.9
110.1
113.9
112.2
114.9
116.1
112.4
115.4
112.3
119.9
+i'.4
-1.2
2,204
1,256
1,256
945
1,468
1,096
1961
February
March
April
May
June
July
October
November •
^
1962
January
February
March
April
May
-472
^3i
-655
-1,274
-585
-452
-356
-793
-865
-1,239
-256
(NA)
1964
January
March
April
Mav
Includes single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
2
-8.8
+3.3
-9.1
-7.2
-2.2
+5.0
-11.2
. -2.3
-9.8
-10.0
+0.4
-3.0
-6!6
-5^4
-4)6
n c
-5.*6
-3 .'6
-3 '.6
-5*?
-4.*6
-3*.0
-i'.s
(NA)
1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
1,390
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,589
1,872
1,211
1,254
1,831
1,182
1,325
1,934
1,386
1,037
1,805
1,755
1,022
1,732
1,228
1,023
1,275
1,594
1,392
1,417
1,713
1,218
2,186
1,088
(NA)
28
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT.-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by QT]; the reverse In
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
Year and
month
,.
98. Percent 93. Free
change in reserves*
money supply and
time depos its
81. Index
of consumer
prices
94. Index
of construction
contracts,
total
value
96. Mfrs.'
unfilled
orders ,
durable
goods industries
2,231
2,302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797
+0.21
+0.36
+0.07
+0.07
-0.14
+0.28
+0.53
+0.67
+0.38
+0.47
+0.28
+0.52
+120
+247
+414
+480
+614
+669
103.1
103.3
103.2
103.5
103.6
103.8
113
109
107
117
111
120
44. IB
44.51
44.64
43.89
43.59
43.40
3,641
4,065
3,537
3,381
3,727
3,893
3,784
5,344
4,874
4,296
4,121
4,476
1,944
2,153
1,757
1,910
1,530
1,993
2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281
+0.14
+0.28
+0.28
+0.21
+0.21
0.00
+0.07
0.00
+0.42
+0.49
+0.49
+0.55
+0.56
+0.74
+0.51
+0.46
+0.64
+0.36
+0.45
+0.32
+0.58
+0.67
+0.62
+0.57
+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
547
+442
+517
+419
103.9
104.0
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5
108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119
43.01
42.94
42.52
42.88
42.95
43.06
43.43
43.85
43.86
44.11
44.52
45.17
4,488
3,990
3,914
4,402
4,126
4,019
5,026
4,623
3,968
4,914
4,936
3,785
3,073
2,135
2,225
1,885
1,808
1,808
2,068
2,488
2,242
3,089
3,154
1,758
+0.14
-0.27
+0.14
+0.27
-0.27
-0.07
+0.07
-0.41
+0.14
+0.55
+0.55
+0.68
+0.79
+0.57
+0.82
+0.69
+0.21
+0.42
+0.51
+0.04
+0.46
+0.84
+0.91
+1.03
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.2
105.4
105.4
105.5
105.6
105.9
105.9
105.9
105.8
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138
45.80
46.42
45.75
45.41
44.95
44.58
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09
4,714
4,050
3,593
4,031
4,682
4,357
5,019
4,871
4,254
5,615
4,120
2,390
2,674
2,157
1,786
2,165
1,962
2,572
3,213
2,859
2,303
(NA)
+0.54
-0.07
+0.20
+0.34
0.00
+0.27
+0.60
-0.13
+0.27
+0.73
r+0.72
p+0.13
+0.98
+0.44
+0.72
+0.52
+0.44
+0.47
+0.75
+0,39
+0.51
+0.93
r+1.11
p+0.45
+384
+300
+271
+313
+248
+141
+158
+137
+92
+96
r+39
p+178
106.2
106.2
106.3
106.2
106.4
106.7
107.1
107.2
106.9
107.1
107.3
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
(MO
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
r47.17
r47.06
P46.69
1961
January
.,
September
October
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
(1957-59- (1957-59*
(Percent) (Mil.dol. ) 100)
100)
(Bil.dol.) (Bil. dol.)
5,305
3,824
3,999
3,357
4,109
3,583
October
[torch
April
May
June
July
85. Percent
change in
total U.S.
money
supply
(Mil. dol.) (Mil.dol.) (Percent)
1960
July
August
92. Military prime
contract
awards to
U.S. business firms
7.27
7.02
6^68
6! 55
6! 58
6^53
1962
March
April
Ifey
June
July
Ausrus t
October
December
1963
February
March,,
April,
May
June
July
October
November
1964
January
March
(NA)
(m)
6^82
6isi
6.B7
7.29
7.06
7.51
8!27
(NA)
29
Basic Data
Toble l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by {TT|; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The Mr" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated;
anticipated; and "NA", not available.
International comparisons c>f industrial production
Year and
month
121. OECD,1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59100)
118
116
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59*
100)
(1957-59=
100)
111
104
112
112
112
110
112
104
105
105
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59*
100)
109
118
112
125
116
115
118
112
115
120
120
122
11A
105
105
109
108
107
105
104
127
127
126
129
129
119
121
122
125
125
104
103
105
103
104
115
116
116
116
117
117
118
118
119
119
119
122
130
134
134
134
136
136
138
137
140
145
149
148
129
128
132
133
135
138
141
143
143
146
147
148
122
123
124
123
124
123
125
125
126
128
128
126
149
151
149
151
153
147
151
149
150
153
158
160
152
148
150
151
151
150
149
150
150
149
149
148
127
127
117
129
131
134
130
130
137
137
158
155
162
167
167
166
163
155
169
149
152
152
158
158
159
167
1960
July
August. ........
116
117
118
118
December
115
114
1961
117
119
119
March
April
MRV
120
k
July
October
November
ppp-ember, . , . . - T
~n Q
109
110
110
111
110
105
107
107
109
109
111
112
112
114
114
107
109
111
112
113
112
114
115
116
124
125
126
126
I?/
121
122
121
124
123
124
128
115
116
117
118
118
118
119
126
129
125
128
129
130
130
120
120
119
120
121
122
123
113
111
110
109
109
109
122
12^
123
124
108
110
111
110
1 25
n pc
113
ll/
113
113
115
116
116
117
118
118
126
1 ?7
11 /
11 5
11 Q
11 9
127
128
110
113
110
126
126
126
130
130
132
130
130
110
111
133
rl!7
pl!8
(NA)
11*3
1962
March,
April
Mav
1?A
Julv
October*
1 37
11Q
1 31
119
120
120
120
119
120
119
132
132
133
132
120
121
122
123
124
124
122
123
125
119
120
121
122
124
126
126
126
126
129
128
132
133
1963
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
pl35
(NA)
113
114
115
115
117
117
p!26
(NA)
December
1964
fterch
April
May,
1
Qrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
r!26
127
p!27
133
139
133
135
135
137
pHO
(NA)
p!36
(NA)
(NA)
rl67
r!72
p!73
(NA)
Analytical Measures
30
Toble 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
To facilitate Interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown a$ declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0,6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as 40.6.
Series
M?aflUT"p
Of
change
Avg.
change, Apr.
1953to
1963x May
1964
19 S3
May
to
June
June
to
July
July
to
Aug.
Aug.
to
Sept.
Sept.
to
Oct.
Oct.
to
Nov.
Nov.
to
Dec,
Pee.
to
Jan.2
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
2.
30.
3.
4.
f?.
6.
24.
9.
10.
11.
7.
Accession rate, manufacturing
Nbnag-ri. placements, all industries...
Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted).
Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries ( inverted )
Avg. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State (inverted).
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
machinery and equipment industries...
Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings.*
Contracts and orders for plant and
equipment
Newly approved capital appropriations,
602 manufacturing corporations3
New private nonfarm dwelling units
Percent . . 0.5
4.9
..do
1.8
..do
9.5
..do
+1.0
-7.3
-1.6
0.0
-0.2 +1.0
-7.5
+5.4
+3.2
-0.6
-5.3 +10.0
-0.2 -0,2
0.0 -10.3
-7.9
+2.5
+5.6
0.0
0.0
NA
-0.4
NA
17.8
+40.4
+2.3
-52.9
-3.1
5.3
+0.3
-0.3
+0.7
+0.3
+0.4
+2.8
+0.4
-21.8
..do
3.8
-1 6
-5 7
+3 4
-6 6
+6 9
+2 1
-2 5
-2 L
..do
4.5
+2.1
-3. S
+1.2
-0.6
+3.3
+0.6
-5.2
+5.8
..do... .„
9.7 +26.6
-17.0
+1.2
-6.1
..do... <
4.9
+8 3
-0 5
+2 6
..do.. . .* 11.2
+22.7
..do
..do
1
0.0
7.3
29. Index of new private housing units
3.8 +5.9
authorized by local bldg. permits.... ..do
12. Mew change in business3 population,
operating businesses ^
+1
Thous . . . 4 2
13. >fumber of new business incorporations. Percent., 2.7 +3.3
14. Current liabilities of business
16.9 -36.3
failures (inverted)
..do
15. Mo. of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over (inv.).... . .do. . .
13.1
. * -35.0
16. Corporate profits after taxes3
. .do. . . 7.7
. . +5.5
17. Price per unit of labor cost index, mfg.. ..do.. ..< 0.7 +1.5
10. Profits (before taxes) -per dollar
of
+7.6
sales, all mfg. corporations3
• .do. . . * 7.7
.
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes)to income
+4.4
j
originating, corporate all indus •3 • •. .do. . . *5.8
2.6 +2.0
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks
..do
21. Change in bus. inventories, farm3 and Ann. rate,
nonfarm, after val. adjustment *» . . .
bil.dol* 2.5 -0.8
31, Change in book value of mfg. and
3.6 +1.6
trade inventories, total ^
..do
20. Change in book value of mfrs,1 inven1.5 -1.3
tories, materials and supplies^
..do
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher Inventories
Percent • • 6.8 +16.3
26. Baying policy, prod, mtls., percent
5.8 -1.9
report, commitments 60 days or more.. ..do
32. Vendor performance, percent report7.7 -3.3
ing slower deliveries
..do
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders,
durable goods industries^*
Bil dol 0.48 -0.52
23. Index of industrial materials prices.. Percent.. 1.3 +0.7
N3ER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricul0.3 +0.3
..do
42. Total nonagricultural employment,
0.4 -0.3
..do
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)... ..do
4-1 -4.6
0.0
40. Unemploy. rate, married males (inv.).. ..do
5.5
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate,
4.8
+1.0
f State programs ( Inverted )
..do
Sees footnotes at end of table.
0.0 -0.2
+2.6
+2.6
-2.0
-0.4
+5.6 -11.8
+12.6
-7 0
-1 5
+25.4 -39.0
+20.5 -16. 8
+4 0
+8.5
+3.6
-3.4
+8.5
-3.9
+6.0
-5.3
-8.8
+18.3
+2*2
-4.5
-3.2
-1.5
-1.0
0.0
+5.5
NA
+59.0 -58.5
-4.8
+0.8
-1.5
0.0
+2.8
NA
-1.8 -177 . 5 +70 . 7
0.0 +13.6
NA
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
0.0
NA
+1 5
+1.2
0.0 -10.5
+2.6
-1.1
-1.3
NA
+6 5 -15 6
-2.3
+29.6
...
+1.0
+2 6
+2.6
0.0
NA
NA
+2.6
+0,2
-0.1
-0.6
+2.1
+0.6
-3.9
+3.6
+2.4
+0 9
NA
+1.1
+0.5
+0.8
-3.0
+2.9
-a. 3
NA
-3.5
-9.1
+9.6
-5.3
+1.9
+1.8
-5.4
-6.9
-22.2
+14.3
+8.3
-7.7
-0.91
-1.4
+3.C
+1 1
-0.2
0.0
*%.*
NA
+18.9
+26.9 -59.2
-2.2 +35.9
0.0 -10 0
+0.04 +0.50
0.0
+0.3
+o 41
-0.1
-6 7
-2 L
+1.9
+1.9
0.0
-4.2
-0 27 -0 21' -0 26
+1.0
+2.3
+0.4
+0.2
+0.3
0.0
+0.2
+0 3
00
+0 ^
+0.1
+4.2
+7.4
+0 7
+0.9
-0.6
-0 1
+2.3
+5.7
+0 2
-1.3
+1.4
-0 1
+0.7
+0.3
00
-6.2
-8.9
+n 3
+5.3
+0.5
+1.2
-1.5
+3.4
-0.8
-3.2
-3.1
+0.i
-5.7
-5J
Analytical Measures
31
Table 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continoed
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.
Series
Avg.
Measure change,
of
Apr.
change 1953to
1963x
May
1963
1964
May
to
June
June
to
July
July
to
Aug.
Aug. Sept. Oct.
to
to
to
Sept. Oct. Nov.
Nov.
to
Dec.
+3.5
+0.4
Dec.
to
Jan.2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS— Con.
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
3.4
1.1
1.4
1.9
1.6
-4.3
+1.6
+0.8
+1,4
+1.6
-1.3
+1.0
+1.6
+0.6
-2.3
-0.6
+1.2
+1.6
+1.6
-1.2
0.0
+7.2
+0.6
1.5
0.5
-2.2
+0.6
-2.1
+0.5
+8.1
+0.3
-3.8
+0.2
+3.9
+0.5
+1.8
+0.8
+0.7
+0.2
+1.5
+1 9
+1.7
-3.0
+0.3
08
0*8
+1 2
-0 4
+0.7
+1 4
+0 4
+1 1
-0 2
-0 3
+0.7
-1 2
+0 7
+1 L
-0 1
-0 5
+0.6
. dO
..do
0.2
+0.3
+0.3
+0.1
+0.1
-0.2
+0.3
-0.1
+0.2
..do
3.6
+3.0
0.6
-0.8
1.0
+1.1
0.5
. . do
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of
0.8
finished goods, all mfg. industries.. ..do
0.8
. do
67. Bank rates on short-term
business
3
3.0
loans 19 cities ... ....*..*......*. . .do
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86. Exports, excluding military aid ship4.6
. . do
3.6
..do
87. General imports total
Mil. dol. 59.5
89. Excess of receipts or payments in
'286
.do
82. Federal cash payments to the public... Percent . . 5.7
83. Federal cash receipts from the public. ..do
5.4
Ann. rate,
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit^
bil.dol. 5.5
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income
and product account » • . . . * .
do. . . 2.5
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. Percent . .26.9
15.1
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
..do
92. Military prime contract awards to
. . do 26.2
85. Change in money supply excluding time
0.23
Mil. dol. 107
Percent. . 0.2
7.0
94. Index of construe, contracts, total... . .do* . * * .
1.5
96.' Mfrs.1 unfilled orders, dur. goods.... ..do
6.3
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg.3. ..do
98. Change in money supply including time
deposits^
CT*' •••'•••• . .do. ....0.21
+0.3
+0.3
+0.3
0.0
0.0
+0.9
+1.0
+1.0
+0.5
+1.0
+1.0
+1.0
47. Index of industrial production
50 Gross national product iti 1954 dol
Percent. .
..do
do
do
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers.. ..do
..do
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing,
..do.....
+3.2
+0.6
+A 5
55. Index of wholesale prices except farm
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant
and equipment, total3
62. Index of labor cost per unit of
63* Index of labor cost per unit of output total GNP3
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, all
1
do.
-0.4
+1.3
+1.9
-1.1
+0.5
0.0
+0.2
-0.9
-1.2
-0.5
5
+5.1
+1.2.
-1.9
+4.2
-93.2
0.0
+0.3
+0.3
+0.7
NA
0.0
+0.7
0.0
+1.0
+1.9
+0.7
NA
NA
-0.2
+6.6
+5.0
-4.6
+2.2
-5.2 +1.5 +0.3
+4.3
+53.9 H74.7 -114.6 +36.0
Na
+3.2
-3.2
+2.6
+2.7
-10.8
-2.7
+9.8
+6.8
+8.9
-7.5
-0.2
+10.4
-3.4
-7.7 +17.6
-1.5 +2.4
+5.0
+7.2
-16.2
+1.6
+25.0 -12.7
+16.1
-6.9
+1.8
+15.2
+1.2
+20.9 -28.9
-2.9 -12.7
NA
+79.5 -50.2
+32.0 -26.6
+21.2
+31.1
+24.9 -11.0
-19.4
NA
-0.34 +0.27 +0.33 -0.73 +0.40 +0.46
-21
+17
-65 -107
-45
+4
+0.4
+0.1
+0.2
-0.3 +0.2
+0.3
-3.0 +14. r
+4.8
+15.2
-6.7
-6.3
-1.1
-1.2
-0.1 +0.8
+0.7
+0.2
+10.1
+6.4
-0.08
NA
NA
+983
-6.1
+1.0
-374
-1.0
+3.5
-9.4
+0.2
+0.2
0.0
-4.6
+0.3
-90.9
+0.03 +0.28 -0.36
-0.2
+0.12
NA
NA
NA
-0.01 -0.59
-57 +139
NA
+0.2
NA
-1.4
-0.8
-0.2
NA
+0.42 +0.18. -0.66
This average Is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
among the series, covering 1953-63 for most monthly series and 1948-62 for most quarterly series.
Percentage changes
3
cover part of this period only.
Qiarterly series; figures show change from previous quarter and are placed in middle month of quarter. Thus the figure for GNP (series 49) shown in the Apr.-May column refers to the change from the
1st quarter of 1963 to the 2nd quarter of 1963.
^Figures are the raonth-to-raonth (quarter-to-quarter) differences in
5
the figures shown in table 1.
Anticipated. .Percent changes from 4th quarter 1963 to 1st quarter 1964 and from 1st
quarter to 2d quarter 1964, based on anticipated data, are 0.0 and +2.3,, respectively.
Analytical Measures
32
Table 3.-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Number of months "before
benchmark date that
high was reached
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
July
1953
3d month before business cycle peak
Apr.
1953
Aug.
1948
May
1960
July
1957
Apr.
1957
Feb.
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7
1
3
1
12
1
4
1
22
i
2
2
3
4
11
1
14
2
1
3
2
1
*1
4
1
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1S
0
2
19
16
12
1
1
1
2
2
3
1
1
2
1
3
2
1
1
4
3
1
20
23
0
23
0
2
1
19
21
18
0
23
0
23
4
1
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was- reached
3
1
2
4
I
2
"i
i
'2
1
3
1
11
9
3
3
11
27
1
1
2
1
2
2
3
Jan.
1953
1
5
...
4
4
"i
2
3
4
4
2
3
3
3
6
11
45
11
27
11
36
11
36
11
27
11
55
6th month before business cycle peak
May
1948
1
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
Current expansion
Sept.
1963
Nov.
1963
Oct.
1963
Dec.
1963
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
6
1
9
"i
2
1
2
2
*1
1
2
2
23
4
23
9
19
16
CM CM H
to \O
9
17
1
1
1
4
2
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
4
4
4
2
4
2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
2
1
1
2
1
3
8
2
1
2
8
1
5
"i
1
7
5
3
23
22
23
30
23
13
1
1
1
;L
3
16
19
3
3
3
3
**3
1
1
4
11
36
"i
i
i
i
i
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
1
7 months
4 months
4
2
4
2
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
5
2
3
6
5
3
2
3
11
45
11
55
11
27
11
27
6
11
55
4
2
11
18
"a
11
73
All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from1 the distribution.
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.
Analytical Measures
33
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading I n d i c a t o r s
(Nov,)
(Oct.)
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Ai*.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Percent
Dl. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.--21 rndus
(3-mo, Interval)
D6. New orders, dur. goods indus.-36 indus
(5-mo. interval)
Oil. Newly approved capita! appropriations
602 cos. (4-0 interval)
»—M5 indus. (1-Q interval)
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA, percent reportin
higher profits—200 cos, (1-mo. interval)
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting p
higher profits-700 cos. (1-Q interval)
3f
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks~82 indus.
(3-mo. interval)
D23. Industrial materials prices—I3 Indus, mtls.
(3-mo. interval)
D5. Initial cla ims, State unempl. insur.«47 areas v
(inverted. 5-mo. interval)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
Sec "Ho- to (ted iGharts 1. 2, and 3," page 1
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
34
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT--Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident I n d i c a t o r s
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Way) (F»b.)
P
T
Ptrcent
D41. Employees in nonagr. esrablisrtments—30 in<
(]-mo. intervo'"
100
50
0
^v^4i
A^V
D47. Industrial production-24 indus.
(1-mo. interval)
TOO
50
,«fe
0
i'.<D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods--23 indus.
(1-mo. interval)
100
50
0
D54n Soles of retail stores-24 types of stores;
(5-mo. interval)
>
Inliilit; Mill
1948
1949 1950
1951
aj|y ttfiJiilii ii ii lulu tiln III til nlnltife tJii III III iilitliilii lilt
Illlllill I l l l J L l l l l
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
Sec "Haw to Reod Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
Analytical Measures
35
CHART 3 b DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aufl.)
T
(May) (F«b.)
P
T
Actual
Anticipated
D35. Net soles, alt mfrs.-HOO cos.
(percent—4-Q interval)
-1 o
D36, New orders, dur. goods mfrs.--400 cos
(percent-4-Q intervol)
100
50
0
D48. Carloadings-19 mfrd. commodity groups
(percent--4-Q interval)
100
50
0
A
D48. Change in total carloadings
(millions of cars-4-Q interval)
+.5
/\
0
-.5
D61. New plant and equipment expend.—17-22 indus.
(percent-1-Q interval)
100
50
0
11 nlnlnln nmlnln milli
1948
1949 1950 1951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
Data are centered within intervals. Latest data areas follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36(0ct. 1963)
D48 (December 1963)
D61 (November 1963)
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
Latest interval shown
Actual
Anticipated
3 r d Q 1962 to 3rd Q 1963I s t Q 1963 to I s t Q 1964
IstQ 1962 to I s t Q 1963 I s t Q 1963 to I s t Q 1964
2nd Q 1 963 to 3rd Q 1963 4th Q 1963 to I s t Q 1964
Analytical Measures
36
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month]
3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in .indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and 1)58 j
which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" Indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "MA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes
Year and
month
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable goods
industries (36 industries)
1-month
interval
5-month
interval
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations
a. 602 companies
4-quarter
interval
D33. Profits
Chicago PAA
(200
b. 15 indus- companies)
tries
1-month
1-quarter
interval
interval
1960
July
August
September
October
December
1961
March
April
Mav
June
July
October
7
Decerribe *- T T - - -T
1962
March*
Apr il
tfcy
JUly
October. .......
November
50.0
31.0
19.0
83.3
7.1
7.1
14.3
16.7
31.0
7.1
4.8
23.8
41.7
52.8
47.2
33.3
44.4
58.3
41.7
37.5
30.6
41.7
23.6
33.3
95.2
71.4
54.8
81.0
45.2
90.5
64.3
73.8
38.1
85.7
66.7
23.8
66.7
95.2
71.4
69.0
90.5
78.6
88.1
54.8
97.6
85.7
81.0
26.2
33.3
48.6
66.7
62.5
63.9
66.7
36.1
63.9
47.2
55.6
61.1
58.3
52.8
72.2
72.2
72.2
77.8
83.3
66.7
69.4
62.5
72.2
70.8
80.6
14.3
73.8
73.8
76.2
21.4
28.6
35.7
47.6
81.0
7.1
59.5
59.5
21.4
59.5
88.1
78.6
40.5
21.4
21.4
59.5
35.7
38.1
31.0
73.8
63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
63.9
68.1
66.7
41.7
48.6
37.5
36.1
52.8
52.8
52.8
75.0
77.8
52.4
73.8
40.5
16.7
81.0
47.6
45.2
42.9
66.7
57.1
r26.2
P73.8
71.4
64.3
31.0
52.4
54.8
, 78.6
47.6
59.5
r64.3
r50.0
P57.1
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
r69.4
r43.1
P50.0
66.7
75.0
73.6
55.6
56,9
50.0
41.7
r45.8
r59.7
P58.3
23.3
*40
66!?
*48
46.7
*54
53^3
*58
70.'6
'64
56!?
*52
66.7
*54
26 .'?
*52
80.*6
'48
60.0
'54
39
34
34
34
28
30
27
31
37
46
50
48
42
51
50
47
50
44
48
49
50
52
52
48
40
46
45
42
44
43
1963
March
April
May
JU1V
September
Octo'ber
Noveiriber
December
1964
April .... *
40.0
*55
(NA)
63 \3
60.'6
<NA)
46
46
45
46
50
46
42
50
44
48
47
42
Analytical Measures
37
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures, are placed on latest month,
3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and'D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58,
which 'are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued
D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices,
mfg., FNCB
500 common stocks
(around 700
(80 industries)1
corporations)
Year and
month
1-quarter
interval
1 -month
interval
3 -month
interval
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22d
(4-7 areas)
1-month
interval
5-month
interval
I960
July
45
September
October
November
*47
32.9
76.5
15.3
23.5
89.4
80.7
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8
55.3
17.0
68.1
42.6
36.2
53.2
26.6
23.4
20.2
21.3
57.4
31.9
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1
96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55.5
62.2
72.6
52.4
38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.. 5
30.8
65.4
46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
46.2
57.7
59.6
31.9
80.9
40.4
48.9
58.5
51.1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
23.4
57.4
59.6
61.7
66.0
68.1
66,0
61.7
93.6
93.6
68.1
63.8
91.5
26.2
74.4
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34.8
6.7
98.8
84.8
39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1
31.1
72.6
90.2
98.8
73.1
34.6
46.2
38.5
53.8
23.1
30.8
42.3
50.0
57.7
69.2
37.5
61.5
53.8
42.3
50.0
42.3
42.3
23.1
23.1
42.3
65.4
79.2
62.5
57.4
83.0
46.8
46.8
40.4
14.9
68.1
57.4
44.7
46.8
72.3
27.7
74.5
51.1
66.0
31.9
21.3
34.0
31.9
38.3
78.7
48.9
22.3
63.8
97.6
79.3
43.8
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.4
67.5
97.6
93.8
91.2
90.0
88.0
62.5
54.4
60.2
74-4
55.7
50.0
58.3
66.7
46.2
50.0
46.2
65.4
34-6
46.2
50.0
73.1
69.2
61.5
50.0
58.3
50.0
53.8
34.6
38,5
38.5
34.6
61.5
69.2
80.8
2
65.4
36.2
87.2
47.9
44.7
48.9
71.3
46.8
55.3
36.2
66.0
38.3
23.4
63.8
44.7
53.2
83.0
46.8
53.2
57.4
66.0
40.4
27.7
1961
47
March
April
May
'06
July
*58
August
October
November
*
*56
1962
54
February
March
April
tfcy
'w
'48
July
August
*56
October
December
1963
January t f
February
torch
April
Mav
July
September
October
T
50
*59
'56
(NO
1964
January
February*
torch
April
2
57.7
Kfey
1(
The diffusion index is based on 85 components through November 1960; on 82 components, December 1960 to February
1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; and on 79 components thereafter. 19 components and 5 composites,
representing
an additional 22 components, are shown in the direction-of-change table (table 6C).
2
Average for January 13, 14, and 15, 1964.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
38
Analytical Measures
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-morith figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-qunrter fIfturoH
are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed In the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and 1)34 and 1)^8,
which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The ";?" Indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes
Year and
month
D41. Number of employees
in nonagricultural establishments (30 industries)
rX-7. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
1-month
interval
35.0
35.0
23.3
30.0
18.3
13.3
a3.3
26.7
33.3
25.0
IS. 3
ao.o
39.6
45.8
25.0
3-3.3
27.1
20.8
45-0
33.3
61.7
56.7
86.7
88.3
70.0
70.0
56,7
71.7
81.7
63-3
15.0
40.0
43.3
78.3
85.0
90.0
90.0
66.7
80.0
80.0
78.3
76,7
45. B
52.1
66.7
83.3
77.1
91.7
79.2
83.3
45.8
72.9
83.3
56.3
55.0
80.0
71.7
86.7
71.7
55.0
56.7
46.7
36.7
45.0
33.3
43.3
78.3
88.3
88.3
80,0
73.3
65.0
51.7
38.3
35.0
26.7
28.3
43.3
63.3
48.3
83.3
66.7
85.0
61.7
75.0
48.3
45.0
65.0
r45.0
P68.3
53.3
65.0
71.7
83.3
78.3
75.0
60.0
50.0
48.3
r46.7
p71.7
3 -month
interval
DS8. Index of
wholesale
prices (23
sifg. Indus.)
DS4. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
1-month
interval
5-month
interval
1-month
interval
1960
July
September
1961
January. .....,,
Aoril
May
July
September
October
December. ......
1962
Mrrch
April
MSV
Jv: ne
jM.ly
August
October
45.8
45.8
45. B
79.2
22.9
37.5
18. B
56.3
37.5
35.4
50.0
39.6
32.^
32.0
36,9
32.5
46.7
37.5
62.5
81.3
83.3
87.5
83.3
100.0
79.2
79.2
75.0
87.5
41.7
58.3
41.7
60.4
22.9
79.2
77.1
60.4
68.8
39.6
83.2
87.5
60.4
43.8
43.8
64.6
62.5
64.6
56.3
83.3
B7.5
95. B
81.3
83.3
83.3
38,6
41.3
54.6
'59.7
49.1
51. 9
50.4
29.2
83.3
83.3
75.0
83.3
62.5
54.2
58.3
79.2
29.2
54.2
41.7
50.0
66.7
91.7
83.3
70.8
79.2
68.8
79.2
41.7
62.5
45.8
58.3
58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
85.4
93. &
89.6
70.8
81.3
79.2
70. B
54.2
95.6
95.8
81,3
79.2
66.7
68.8
72.9
62.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
62.5
47.9
rJO.O
r54.2
P68.8
54.2.
81.3
83.3
91.7
87.5
83.3
87.5
72.9
58. 3
r56.3
P72.9
50.0
54-2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
r58.3
54.2
P83.3
41.7
20.8
20.8
16.7
12.5
20. g
43. a
r^a
55.9
^3.4
a. 2
51.1
64.7
43.5
61.1
4.6.7
68,6
47.6
33.0
50.3
36.3
39.0
r43.4
r38.1
1963
February
March
April
May
July
Au'ijjust
„.
November
1964
March
April
May
81.3
56.3
45.8
58.3
62.5
75.0
66.7
70.8
r58.3
p81.2
]
38.6
41.3
50.3
46.7
73.0
69.3
41,7
52.1
53.1
76.0
r62.9
P53.3
Analytical Measures
39
TobU 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTrVfTIES: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available.
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4-quarter
interval
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Year and
month
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
D61. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
Antici- Change in
pated total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
1950
July
&n£USt
November
50
70
*50
'08
21.1
50.0
-279
*60
*68
*62
*68
26 .*3
42^1
-212
56.2
71.9
34-4
43 is
28.1
37.5
46*.9
53 il
5^2
62^5
59 \l
65 .'o
65.6
62.5
68 !s
' 68 is
65*6
65 .'o
4o!9
68 is
40.6
50.0
65 ,*6
75.0
75 !o
71.9
(M)
75.0
1961
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
72
'82
72
*78
36!s
89^5
-28
'74
*83
*73
*78
68^4
73^7
+79
82
*88
*82
'86
87.*5
89^5
+125
October. ;
November
*81
*86
78
82
63 .'2
89.*5
io2
80
*88
*76
*84
57 .*9
94*7
Io7
*76
80
74
*74
63 '.2
89.5
-96
72
74
71
70
42 !l
68 .'4
^66
*74
*82
*76
'76
(NO
63 .*2
+28
'76
80
*77
*76
78.9
+38
(NO
*80
(NA)
*7o
68.4
ri-44
'so
78!9
1962
January *.«
March
April ..........
Mav
Julv. . ."
Septeniber
November
December
1963
January ........
February
April
May
July
August
*84
November . . » . -, t .
1964
January
February
April
May
June
53.1
Analytical Measures
40
unr-JBW
vCBW-qa^
jdv-UBf
3
«w-oad
q3i-AON
UBr-q-OQ
QC
QL
oaa-dag
1
AON-SW
I + + I + + + 1 + I I
+ 4 + I + O + I O I
+ I + + + 4 - I 1 4 - +
UTv
^9o*~tnr
^+
4 1 1 4 1 + 4 1 4 + 0
•P
dag-unp
04
0 4 ) 1 1 + 4 1 1 4 4
1
aw-Aw
«Q 1
+ 4 0 1 1 1 + 1 1 1 +
Tnr-Jtdv
C-
unp-aiw
UA o
CO
I
t1*"!
S
s
+
4
4 4 4 4 4 O 4 4 4 1 I
1 O + + +
||+
1 O O 1
+ + + +|+
+
4 - + ( | + o i l + 4
+ + 4 0 1 1
1 4 1 1 1 1 1 + 1 4
AfiW-W
(iT\
M4
1
1
t + 4 - 4 1 O 4 - + l - ( '-
-idv-uBf
H I
1 O 1 4 4
1
. I I Q O I 4 4 4 I O
a^I-oaa
^•4
i o + 4 4 4 l l t 4 4
4 4 4 + 0 + 1 1 + 0
^+
4 4 4 I + + + 1 + 1 4
4 4 0 4 4 + 1 + 4 1
1 1
1
1
1
qaj-AON
o
UJ
UBP-+OO
I
unf-jCBH
^
A^-Jdy
sI
§ «
1
adv-a^w
JKW-W
W-uBr
Si
S
uer-oaa
oaa-AON
a
£
a.
^
AON-^OO
^01
1 1 4 1 4 1 4 1 0 1 1
^oo-dag
j> 1
l + 0 + l + I O + l l
Snv-tnr
<J 1
+ 1 1 ) 1 1 0 1 1 1 +
inp-unr
«J 1
1 + + I I O O + I + +
I I 1 0 O O + I + 1
uiif-AW
«QO
+ + 0 ) + I + O 4 I I
+ 4 I ) + I 1 O I O
^^I-ady
H+
+ , + + +4- + + + + +
+ + + + + 4 .
JdV-JBW
C-l
1
OJ4
0 0 4 4 4 4 0 1 + 1 +
1 4 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1
+4.+
I 4 - Q O + I +
<
o
1-month spans
dag-Uny
H
0
1
1
+
l
t
l
l
t
l
4- + + I O + 1 1 + +
I
I
I
1
I
I
l (
+
+
, 4 .
I
I
«W-d3,3
o <
u
qa^-UBp
1 + I + B + I I O I
1
uisr-oaa
1
: : H : : : : : : : : : :*£ H : : : : : : : : : :
5
UL
O
O
a
-o
1
I
1
i-H
CM
t i : : : « : : : : : § .S i : : : : : : „ • : : :
hO
a
b'Ei
O * H O W C O W ^ O » ( U O ) - P c 5
f H ^ O W - P - O C U ' S - P O
W o-5fjctfcjOr-i{>>ftaJea
w
m W O P r H d ^ O h ' H H ^ j »-5
•H of
FH^M
Q
OJS
FnrH
d » « O ^ * C f t O
T3 « CO ^ -O -H
fn
oco-pftOx!T3ft
FH (U O
fn GO <U
FH
ft
Ft
o)O
cd
- P O O P C
Q F^edftfH^f^ft
-PO
O'O
r-( ^ X a J O r t c o S T J ^ H
flffH
T d T J O r —(
a j
O
a<UHSQJi£a)-p'cc:
3
!>iaJCU*HO0rH
§*^at'OdoQ|ha>
COOJHajCa)(D
FH
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
B.--(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
1-month spans
1964
1963
36 industry components
5-month spans
1963
1964
I
&
Percent rising
All durable goods industries.
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products:
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
.
Hardware, structural metal and wire prod....
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equip.*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Motor vehicle parts
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
64 43 54 64 53 47 51 53 53 69 43 50
75 78 67 75 74 56 57 50 42 46 60 58
- + + - _ + + + +
+ +
+ +
_ + -»• + +
- + + + _
0
+ - + o + _ + - + + + _ +
_ + _ +
_ +
_ _
+ -I- - + -
+ + + _ ^ _ _ _ + _ o +
+ + - +
+ + - + + +
O-_ + _ + _ + - _ +
O
+ - o
- + - -I-*+
+
+ - + - - + - +
- + + - + •*--+ + - + + + - +
+
+
+
+
o
_
+
+
-
_
+
+
-
+ -*•-»-__ +
- + - - + + + + + - + - -t- o - +
- + _ + -(-+ _ + _ + +
+
+ + + -*- + + - - + + + + + _ _ - _
+
+
+
- - + - + + + +
-
+
+
+
+ - 0 -
+ + + + + + + -»+ +_ + + + + -
+ - + + + o + + +
+ + +
+ -*- +
- +
+ - -
_ +
- +
+ -
- -»• - + - + + + - o - + + + +
- + + - _ + + -
-»+
_ + _ +
- + _ +
- + + -*-
+ -
-I-
+
-
_ +
+ - +
+ - +
_
+
_
+- _- +
_ _
+ + - •+• + - - +
_ +
+
+ -
+ - - - +
_
•*•
+ + + + +
-t- - - - -h
- - +
+ - - - +
+
-
- +
+ - + - - -*- -*- - +
_
-
+ 4- - - +
+
+
+ * rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census
mined.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
-*+
-
before the direction of change is deter-
^<
r^
O*
S
O
Table 6.-DIRECTIQN OF CHAKGE !K» SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECiriED TiME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
C.-(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
3-month spans
1-oonth spans
1963
a
Percent rising2
500 stock prices
^ ^
**
G ft
>-s
fe
r-i
I
bfl
2
1
: r*
J =)
9
^
Sep-Oct
H 5£i> ffi
C
1
o
1963
1964
Aug-Sep
24 industry components1
1
4
f o f
8 a 1i1i
0)
98 79 44 91 85 52 29 75 77 45
-P
H
1 fa S <
i 1 1
-p > O C: & it
O <D a i ja> jj
& &
a »-
iI
1
C
31
t-!
bfl
O
C
,O
?H
£-1
H?
j2!
£
§
2
»-3
>
0
C
/3
fn
a
Io
-P
f>>
C
2 p! *-> fc s
99 98 94 91 90 88 62 54 60 74 56 50
68
4-
Mining and smelting
4-
4- NA.
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturing)
Textile weavers
Paper
4*
44-
-
4-
44-
44-
-
m mi
+
44-
4-
44-
4-
4-
m
NA
4-
-
4-
-
4-
K
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
444-
444444-
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and bus iness equipment
Electric household appliances
444444-
44444-
4_
44444-
4+
444-
Automobiles
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
Telephone companies
444-
44-
-
4*
44-
444-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
-
4-
-
4-
44-
4444-
4-
4-
44-
4-
-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
i-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
-
4"
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
0
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
M tt
»n.
-
4-
+
-
4* 4-
4-
4-
4-
4-4-4-4-4-4-
44-
4-4-4-4-4-4-
4-
+
_
4-
4-
444-
44-
4-
-
4-
+ M &I N& MA NA
-
4-
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
& *H I
CD oj C
0
i
-p
1964
44-
44444-
444-
4-4-4-4-44-4-4-4-44-4-4-4-4-
444-
4-4-4-4-4-44-4-4-4-4-4-
44-
4-4-4-4-44-4-4-4-4-
4-
444-
4-
4s
+
4
44-
4-
444-
44-
44-
44-
4444-
44-
44-
;
44-
4-
4-
-
4- « rising; o * unchanged; - •» falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
NA not available.
1
The 24 components shown here include 19 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 22 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
2
Based on 82 industries to February 1963, 80 industries, March 1963 to August 1963, and on 79 industries thereafter.
o
to
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
D.-(D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
1-month spans
3-month spans
1963
1964
1963
1964
13 industrial materials components
C
,Q
f n P H
> s C H t i O p j - P
>
O
^i ,i Si £i § i I i ^ i^ t^ S
i 8
i ii Si
O C £1 h f n > i P r - I b O { i - P >
S c d < l > j S { l j d : i l 3 3 < D O O
« - 7 f n 2 < u s : ^ ^ < ; c o o 2 :
H
C
ft
(-5
fn
S
<3j
0
p
^3
h
td
1
QJ
1
to
jri
1
FH
>>
& ij
S
1
1
FH
C
3
1
>-3
>>
a « & £ a- «
58 67 46 50 46 65 35 46 50 73 69 62 58
+
C , O f H
fn
> s f i H
U D & - P
>
0
^i ^i £i $i gi . i ? i^ i^ ^i ai ^i ai
- P > O C , Q t H f H : » C r H b p f X
8 i ^ ^ ^ S ^ £ ^ ^ I ^
Cotton (lb. )
,
0
0
0
0
0
+
+
+
0 0 0
+
15 market average
+
+
+
O O O O O ~ l ~ 4 ' 4 " ^ " ~ f r " O ~ ^
NA
-NA.NA
--
--
-+
O
O
O
O
O
O
-
-
O
O
O
O
0
f 1h ^
+ » rising; o • unchanged; - • falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
x
Average for January 13, 14, and 15, 1964.
0)
*H
oj
S
1
0
<U
Q
^1
Q
<U
l
C
cd
^
>»
oj
S
1
,0
<D
fa
P
^
^)
1
^
od
S
+
- +
0
Tn 1 1 raj
fa
+
Wool tops (lb.)
Hides (lb.)
Rosin (100 lb.). .. .
Rubb er ( lb )
^1
ecJ
+
+
+
+
+
+
Zinc (lb.). . .
C
H3
i
1
4^
>
8 O
S
62 50 58 50 54 35 38 38 35 62 69 81 65
+
0
Tin (lb.)..
H
g
^T
<-t
-
-
_ _
O
O
O
O
-
-
-
-
O
+ + + + + + 0 + + +
NA - not available.
O
o
n*
^
s
a
M
g
0
Toble 6.-DrRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
E.-£D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
p
26 area components
53
3*0
0>
C ^ Q P H j - ! > s C r - 8 M f t - P > O
a } < u j a f t i i ^ ^ ^ Q C O < y
i - 3 & ^ S : < f l 2 » - 5 » - s < C O O 2 i G
1
1
t
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
O
t:
rQ
£ H £ H
>i
C
rH
M
CX
-P
>
& £ & £ % £ Z 2 3 $ 8 £
36 87 48 45 49 71 47 55 36 66 38 23
4 7 labor murlr^t arpas 1 ,,.
r
..
T
-
1963
1964
1963
1 h
1-i
5-month spans
1-Eonth spans
•p
C
^
0
P
fn
^
>s
C
«i £i £i §
i SfHi S>^i
,0
^
a s £ « s- a
C ^ 3
?-t^«
1964
> s C i r - f t 3 p j - P
>
O
£t £t gt ^i gi ^i ^t 3i $i ai gi ^i
M n - p > o c ^ i F - t ^ > 5 C i - t
^ ^ S i S ^ S ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
C ,Q £<
eg
dj at
1-5 fci S
l
1
1
f O u -P
0) o
CO 0
£« >> £
& id ^
< S >-s
l
1
1
>
O C
o flJ cd
2; Q 1-3
22 64 64 45 53 83 47 53 57 66 40 28
T I T r
NORTHEAST REGION
7
16
11
1
21
4
8
23
Boston
Buffalo*
Newark
New York
Paterson
Philadelphia*
Pittsburgh**
Providence**
*
+
+ --
+
+
+
+ +_
+
_
+
+ - +
+_
- - - * - + _ _
_
+
-
_ + +
- + _ + _ + _ + _ + + _
_ + - - - + • * • - + -+
_
+
_
+
-
-
+
_
+
_
+
-
_
+
+
_
+
-
-
+
+
_ - + - - +
+ +
+
+
+--
+ + - - - - - -
+ -*- + - - - - _ + - j - _ _
, _ _ + _ + + + _ + _ _
- +
+ + +-
+
--
+ -
NORTH CENTRAL REGION
3
1*
10
26
5
25
22
15
13
9
Chicago. ...«
Cleveland
Columbus
Detroit
Indianapolis
Kansas City. .
Milwaukee
Minneapolis
St. Louis
'.
-
+ _ - - - * - - - * - - + - -
+ + _ _ + + +
- + _ - + + - + - + -*• + -_
+ -
-
+
-
+
+ - + + + _ + - - ' + + - -
+ H - - +
+ + -+ + - +
+
-
-
+ +
+ +
+ + + _ _
+
+
+
+
---
+ _
_ _
_ _
_ + +
_ +
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
--
+
+
+
„
_
_
-
_
+
+
+
_
__
_
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
-
-
_
-
_
_
_
+
_ -
_
_
_
,
_
_
_
_- -
+
-+
-
+
+
_ +
H-
+
+
+
t - h t t
+ __
+
+ _ _ +
+ - + +
_ _ _ _
^ . _ +
+
_ + +
+
+
^ -
_ _
+
+
-
+ ^ ^ + +
+ _ + + _ + - + +
-+ + + + - _ _ _
+ + +
_ _ _ + +
_
SOUTH REGION
20
12
17
14
Atlanta. ...
Dallas
Houston
- -
+
+-
_ + _ _ ^ - j - _
WEST REGION
2
24 Portland
6 San Francisco
19 Seattle*
. + _
+
+
_
^
_
_
^
_
-
+
G.
_
+
_
+
+
+
_
+
_
+
_
^ ^
_
+
+
+
- * rising; o * unchanged; + « falling. Because this series visually rises when general business activity falls and falls when tusir.ess rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the nontfc. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
*Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or jaore) in December 1963.
**Desi(mated by Bureau of Srplcyserrt Seciirity as an area cf substantial (G percent oi3- mLti'e} and persistent unespioycEnt in Secember 1963.
1
The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.
f-t
^
o"
s
o
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
F.—(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultoral Establishments
3 -month spans
1-month spans
1963
1964
1963
1964
30 industry components
C
,0
^
PH
>>
C
3t &i si ati ti zi
O
d>
C
cd
,O
d)
fn
cd
Q 1-3 fa 2
fn
Pu
>j
cd
<d S
H
H
l^
bO
H
^
ft
(u
05
-P
o
0
t>
O
2
O
<U
Q
C
r-t
i)
ft
-P
>
g S 3 $ 3 £
£»3 / f t £3 A7 #^ A? 7^ /,ft / ^ ^*; / ^ fift
+
+
-
+
+ -
,
+
,
+
o + +
—
+
o + + + "*"
o o + - +
o
O
—
O
"*"
C
,0
h
h
>»
C
*?i (Si si <i •£i ^t
0
<U
Q
C
oJ
t-a
f>
flj
fa
In
jaj
g
PH
pii
<]
>s
irt
S
P , Q
h
F-l
> j C r —I b D D t - P
>
O
a J a ) . a l & b d ^ ) 3 a ) o o < y
i-3CLyS<JE!i-s>-3<iJu3O^:o
i i t i i t i i i i i i
-P
>
O
C
fl
^-t
<
O I S Q ' - 5 f r H 2 l
f-t
\>3
G
r-4
tuO
&
i l S ' - a ' ~ 3 < ^ C / 3
C
^3
Of . 0)
fa
FH
jj
?H
G.
t>s
^J
C
3
S
<U
-S
»-5
-P
O
O
C
,£)
^i
1-5
I
t
>
i
i
i
i
CJ
cd
o aO aD 1-3cd fa
s:
43 53 65 72 83 78 75 60 50 48 47 72
_ _ _ _ _
+ + o
-
+
+ + + +
+
^ - +
+
+
+
--0
_ - _ _ _ - < -
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
-
-
-
+
+ -t-_
- -
+
+
+
-o
+
Primary metal industries
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
- _ + + _ +
o
o + o •*•
-
+ + - _ + •*-
--
- + - + _ +
•*•-
+
Machinery
+
_
Instruments and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing. . .'
Chemicals and allied products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
+
-
o o +
-
- o
_
_
+
-
-
+
-
+ -
o
O
+
+ -
0
+
-
"*"
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+O
-
+
_
+
+
_
-
_
_
_
-
4-
+
-
-
-
+ o --
- + + + + +--
-
-
.
-
O
-
-
-
0
+ + + -
+ -
-
-
+
-
-
+
+ + +
-
+
+
_
+
+
_ +
+ - + + + -
0
-
0
0
+
0
0
0
-
-
+
- - 0 + + + + - - - - +
0
0
-
+
-
0
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-0
-
+
0
0
0
-
-
-
-
-
+
+
O
O
O
+
+
+
_
- + + + + - - - - + +
_ _ _ o - + - + - - -
+
-
+ + + + + + + --
+
+
+ +
+
---
+
0
0
+
-
0
-
-
_
o
+
-
-
o o + •*•
-
-*•
-h
+
-*•
+
+
+
-
+
+
_
+ o
+
+
+
-
o + - +
+
-
+
0
+
-
0
.- + + + + + + - - - - +
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
--
0 - -
+
0
Retail trade
Services and miscellaneous
~ rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
+ + + +
O
+
+
+ +
rt
^
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
O
O
+
+
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
C
•-I
o
Table 6.-D1RECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
Os
G.--(D47) Index of Industrial Production
3-wonth spans
1-month spans
1964
1963
24 industry components
& & t* H > s C H b D f t - P > O
oj d) jri 0< jsj ;3 £i ^ o> o
o
4)
^[iiS<!S1-s'-a<i!coOISC!
1
1
l
t
I
I
I
I
I
O C ^ 3 ^ ^ S C r - l h f l P
1
J
I
- t -
3
l
>
SSfifiS-fiSS^aSS
Percent rising1
All industrial production
1963
67 69 73 62 88 75 65 62 48 50 54 69
c & h j-t
>> e
« £ £ f £ 5
o
c ,0
h
^ >>
Q
>S
&
S
5*
2
$3,0
t 1
3
1964
f ^ ^ t f ^ C H h D P j - P
E i H S < a C S ' - 3
1
I
t
1
1
1
|
>
O
- 3 < 0 3 O S O
1
1
1
1
1
+ ^ > o c ^ a s ^ f ^ ^ c r - i b D a
8 ^ o ^ S ^ § S ^ » ? ^ w
p
^1
FH
h
>>
C
7•fJ t> Oi "fC ^3i "?^
58 54 81 83 92 88 83 88 73 58 56 73
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+-O
+
+
DURABLE GOODS
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products •
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4-4-
Transportation equipment
- 4 - - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - +
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+ 0 + +
+
- + • - - + +
4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - _ -
H-
+
+
O +
+ +
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
Clay, glass, and lumber
4 - - 4 - - * -
+
4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
- 4 - 4 - -
+
_ _ 4 - - _ 4 - M
*<
1^
o
4-4*
4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - -
o
NONDURABLE GOODS
Textile, apparel
4-
and leather
Apparel products
Leather and products
+
4 - - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - + N A
-
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
-NAKA
4-4-4- +
_ . _ _
4-
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - K A
_ + + + + +KAKA
4-
_
4-
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
o - o
+
+
^T
Petroleum products
Foods , beverages, and tobacco
4-
Tobacco products
- 4 -
4-4-
_
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
- 4 -
-O
- 4 -
- KA
4 - 4 - 4 -
_ 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
4--4-+iJA
- NA NA
MINERALS
Coal
Crude oil and nat'dral eas
Metal store a*^d ear^-h Ki^erals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
4 - _ _ 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - - - -
:::;:;;::;: S
4-
+ 4- + + H > - - . + - _ r a
-r = rising; o = usiehaTiged; - - falling. Series coiuporierits are seasonally adjusted Iby isssiiKg ageocy before the direct ICQ of ehasge is det
NA « not available.
1
The direction of change is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estiisates for each industry
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
are
used to
compute
Federal Reserve Bank
of St.
Louis the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components,
V)
c
in
n>
Table 6.-D1RECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
H.->(D54) Sales of Retail Stores
5-month spans
1-month spans
1963
1963
1964
1964
24 retail store components
50 54 52 42 52 75 67 65 25 58 54 83
Percent rising...
All retail sales.
4- + _ o - - + 4- + + + +
+ +'o + + + + + - - - + + + + +•+ + + - + - +
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating places
Department stores....
Mail-order stores
Variety stores
Other general stores.
Men!s wear stores,...
+
0
+
+
0--
+
+
+-
+
D
_
_
+
_
0
-
0
+
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
^-—
^<
m
O*
+
+ + + + - - - - + + + +
Motor vehicle dealers
Tire and battery dealers
Gasoline stations
Drug and proprietary stores...
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable goods stores....
Other nondurable goods stores.
-- + + - + + + + + + o - + + + + + + + + - +
+ o + - -
Women's apparel stores
Family apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture stores
Appliance and radio stores.
Building material dealers..
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
+ = rising; o = unchanged;
mined.
81 79 81 56 46 58 62 75 6? 71 58 81
C
•-t
O
o + + -
falling.
4-
+
4-
-
+
+
4+
+
+
+
+
O + +
4- 4- _
+
+
o + + _ + + - + + + + +
+
+
4-
+
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census
-
+
--0
+
-0
before the direction of change
is deter-
Cyclical Patterns
48
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak dote preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
- Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
-July 1957'to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1
' May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and tndus.
bldg. 2
TIT M T T I I I I| II I I I I I I I
Index
-^-Reference trough dates
305,-
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.
"100
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
24. Mfr*,' new orders,
mach. and equip. Indus
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "l"or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series with
un MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set
at "100*. MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions ore shown in table 7.
For
'he 1949, ]954, and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4m
49
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
- Nov.
July
- July
- May
fnde:
1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
T 1 U I [ III
nllO
UM| Ii Il lM M M I I I 1 | M I I | i I I H I I I I I I | I I 1 I 1 |
r
-Reference trough dates
150
140
13. New business incorporations
-105
130
100*
120
110
*100
90
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "Tor *2", the figure for the reference peak is set at *100", For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at *100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarte* is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
See table 1 for latest month in current period* Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
50
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4m
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
11 n i i n 11 rn T n I n n T m 1 1 J mi
index
PERIOD COVERED
-^-Reference trough dates
• Nov. 1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
• July 1957 to Apr. 1961 {Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
I I I I j M M 1 1 I I I I II I 1 1 I I M I I I I I I I II I
Inde;
t-Reference trough dates
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted ]
55. Wholesale price*, except
farm prod, and foods
0
46
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
•Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)of "Tor "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series witl
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is *«
at "100*. MCD values are shown in appendix C
1
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
51
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
Index
I 1 1 II I ! M I I I M I I
PERIOD COVERED
- Nov.
July
- July
- May
Reference trough dates
1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Inde;
95L
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
^/Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of 'Tor *2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100"* For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
52
Cyclical Patterns
ICHART 41
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles, Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
• Nov.
July
- July
» May
1948 to Oct. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
1953 to Aug. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954}
1957 to Apr. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
62. Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, all mfg.
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
$7. Bank rates, short-term
business loans
64. Mfrs.' inventories,
all mfg. industries
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+;J6
ference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD)of Tor "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at *100". For s«rl« with
3 of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is *et
0". MCD values are shown in appendix C
e table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown In table 7.
3it 2 quarters anticipated.
Cyclical Patterns
53
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date 1 of each series for each expansion.
"T m T irT T
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dotes to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dotes each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of-
Index
110 r
1949
1954
Index
-Specific trough dates
2
9, Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and Indus.
bldgs. 3
1958
1961
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II I I I M I I I 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 I I 1 M M M i l l
-^-Specific trough dotes
K Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg
105
100'
24. Mfrs/ new orders,
moch. and equip. Indus.
29. New pvr. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
I
160
150
100
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) ofT or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100", For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
1
2
See appendix B for specific dates.
$ee table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 1. For the 1949 and 1958
cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.
54
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
M I I M M 1 I MI I I U I I M | I | I I 1 I I | I I M I | I I I I
PERIOD COVERED
•<-Specific trough dates
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dotes eoch series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of»
1949
1954
1958
1961
I i I I I I M 1 1 1 [1 11 I I I 1 1 1 1 11
Index
Ml
1111 MMI
-^-Specific trough dates
13. New business incorpo
rations
no MOO
200
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
180
160
UO
120
*100
ml
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1* or "2*, the figure for the specific trough is set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100*. For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter Is i»t
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C*
2
*$ee appendix B for specific dates.
$ee table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
Cyclical Patterns
55
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
I I 1 I I I 1 I I I I I II
PERIOD COVERED
2
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
-1954
Index
I I I I I 1 1 I I I I ' I 1 I
•<-Specific trough dates
1958
1961
III III Ml I I I I I II I II I II I I I II I I III I I I I
41. Employees in nonogri.
establishments
Specific trough dates
43. Unemploymenf rote, total
[inverted ]
Illll Mill 111 II Mill III)
-110
MM
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
Mill
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
*See appendix B for specific dates.
Se« table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions .are shown tn table 9.
56
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compered for 4 business expansions.
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
I T II [ I I I Mil I I n ] I I T'f I I T 1 TT FlTTl T I I I ( I \ ] J
PERIOD COVERED
*-Specific trough dates
From specific trough dates to 42 months later.2 Specific
trough dates are the dotes each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of1949
1958
1954
1961
i ITFTI11rrmTT iTmTi i i rri i 11 nil
Index
-^-Specific trough dates
140 -
130 -
Period begins
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
49
GNP in current dollars
120
no
*ioo
150
53. Labor income in mi rung,
mfg., and construction
uo
130
52.
T20
no
*ioo
iiiiilinn
+6
mill
n n i l i i i i i l i n n l i n i i l i t i nl
i il in i il i n ill
+U
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
O
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of *1" or *2%the figure for the S|>ecific trough !$ set ot "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "TOO". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
*See appendix B for specific dotes.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after th» specific
3
troughs of previous expansions ore shown in table 9.
For the current cycle* changes ore based on the low (U) shown in table U
Cyclical Patterns
57
Table /.--PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
or series with & "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "I" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or more
(series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is
used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61^ and 67) is the reference peak quarter. See
also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Months
after
reference
trough1
Selected series
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in-July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
87.2
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr,
1958
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
3 . Layoff rate manufacturing ( inverted )
6. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs,, floor space2...
.3, Number of new business incorporations
.4. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
.6. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)..
L7. Price per unit of labor cost index
L9. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks..,.
31.0
31.3
71.3
44.3
57.1
101.0 101.8
146.0 111.2
145.2 59.1
98.0
74.0
70.0
98.7
106.4
65.5
101.2
94.6
141.2
120.1
106.7
54.4
46.1
58.9
45.6
236.1 148.3
195.4 132.1
117.2
95.9
103.0
105.4
116.4
124.4
34.4
114.0
57.2
26.7
189.5 112.0
128.4
103.0
108.2
33
34
30
34
34
34
67.3
19.8
86.0
Nk
95.9
56.0
102.2
106.7
86.5
NA
169.6
81.6
90.4
59.7
54.7
M
159.6
67.9
76.8 105.1
104.5 162.0
23.5 155.8 82.7
NA
NA
98.3
45.7 59.3 164.7
77.7
97.9 89.3
131.0
68.4
120.9
100.0
195.8
108.4
116.6
58.1
90.3
98.8
128.2
95.7
101.8
118.1
121.7
100.3
134.3
93.9
34
m
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
130.2
108.0
119.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
100.3
142.1
83.4
NA
97.9
Nk
86.1
NA
88.3
99.7
107.4
99.9
97.4
94.6
86.3
NA
83.4
71.5
88.3
59.1
73.2
78.9
110.4
140.7
122.9
121.4
NA
117.7
119.1
124.9
108.0
109.4
123.4
130.5
118.6
131.4
129.2
118.4
105.1
61.4
108.7
119.9
109.9
128.1
122.0
119.4
101.0
59.3
101.2
111.6
105.6
118.9
114.1
106.9
106.0
93.5
115.7
119.0
113.6
133.7
118.1
117.6
101.5
100.0
34
33
33
31.2
12.5
96.6
34.3
28.7
34
34
131.3
168.1
33
>4. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin>9. Index of new private housing units author-
34
tiA
69.6
m
147.2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
VI. Number of employees in nonagricultural
establishments
43 . Unemployment rate, total ( inverted )
+9. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q),.
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
54 . Sales of retail stores
..*
34
34
34
33
33
34
34
34
106.3
94.8
NA
106.3
112.6
114.0
119.7
113.7
105.9
34
64.4
87.8
83.1
85.9
99.8
107.5
109.1
30
39
54.9
48.0
100.9
90.8
87.0
54.3
44.0 131.5
NA
55.4
119.4
125.1
128.9
34
33
33
82.2
M
m
91.5
NA
NA
89.4
NA
NA
85". 0 100.0
NA
79.1
85.7 151.1
110,3
140.6
196.4
108.7
117.1
148.3
102.9
102.7
128.5
99.7
109.9
128.7
33
85.5
91.0
97.4
58.3
NA
132,2
118.0
102.9
93.5
m.
93.2
m
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
51, Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q). . ..
131.3
94.0
91,9
110.2
114.9
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, and April 1958, the peak had been passed
and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for the reference
peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
^-Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for vhich data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 30 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 39 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 2nd quarter 1964).
Cyclical Patterns
58
Table 8.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "X" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, $5
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" o
more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference troug
month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference troug
quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
lybnths
beginning in—
after
reference July July Nov. Iter. June Oct. Aug. Apr" Feb.
1954
1933
1949
1924
1958
1938
1927
trough1 1921
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
34
33
33
+5.8 +15.8
+5.7 -11.1
+2.5
+8.2 +63.4 +25.2
+59.7 -57.6
+295. $ -7.4 -55.9 +54.8 +192,9 -11. a
-«-1.7
NA
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs,, floor space2,..
14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
-45.5 +206.9 +292.7 +71.2
-55.7 +201.9 +108.1 -8.2
+0.5 +2.1 +2.8
+1.9 +15.8 -12.1
+8.3 +10,3 +60. <
+30. a
+16.7
+9.9
34
34
+86.0
+71.7
33
+26.2 +64.2 -34.1 +123.3 +284.0 +29.7 +32.5 +31.1
33
34
30
34
34
34
-7.0 +38.0
+17.4 +18.3
tot+60.7
NA
NA
+29.7 +62.8
+33.9 -2.7
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
+7.3
+7.8
+24.:
+24. *
+i6.:j
+0.5 +10.9
-12.9 -12.1 -10.8
NA +42.0 +3B.1 -28.3
-35.1
m +5.7 +/,! .9
-25.6 -33.3
NA
NA
NA
+:i.8
-0.4
+21.8 +120.9 -5.6 +5B.5 +54.7
-30.3 +87,1 +44.7 +18.9 +s.4
+22.1 +9.J
-2;». 8 +20, (
+19.3 +43. <
+2.S
+4.4
+46.8 +19.;
+10.1 -i.<
+39. a
+22.3 +26.]
34
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA +67.8
34
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
34
34
34
33
33
34
34
34
+21.1
NA
+43.3
+27.7
+30.1
+20.3
+27.6
+13.3
+9.2 -10.3
NA
NA
+29.4 -6.2
-0.6
+15.3
+5.0
+14.3
+23.5 -8.1
+13.6
-3.4
+5.9
-5.4
+26.2
+69.5
+72.9
+42.0
+22.7
+55.0
+48.8
+49.9
+23.2
+150.6
+79.9
+37.8
NA
+40.9
+33.8
+53.2
34
+1.8
-10.7
+18.6
29. Index of new private housing units author-
-19.7
-a. 2
-23.1
-.1.4
+46.:
+13.7 +B.8
+123.2 +39.1
+34. a +19.6
+35. 0 +22.1
+20.3 +13.2
+36.8 +26.1
+35.1 +22.3
+18. 4 +20.2
+5.2
+5.3
+17,8
+14. 5
+9.6
+22.7
+14.4
+8.6
+8.0
+26.3
+23. d
+19.9
+15.7
+30.6
+17.2
+19.9
+2.0
+0.1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
47.
49.
50.
51.
Index of industrial production;
.«••
Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
-3.9
+5.7 +13.2
+10.0
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
a
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
total manufacturing
64. Manufacturers' inventories, book value
30
39
34
33
33
-8.6
NA
NA
-11.0
NA
NA
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
33
-20.7
+3.7
+59,9 +44.6 -1.0 +156.4 +120.3 +49.2 +37.4 +17.1 +18.^
NA +56.3 +35.0 +14-4 +23,;
+39,8 +30.2 -38.2 +223.1
-3.6 +14.7
-9.2 +15.9
+6.5
-3.1 -2,1
NA +50.6 +25.3 +6.5 +11.;
NA +33.5
NA +79.3 +62.1 +58. 2 +43.4 +27.5 +24.!
+1.2
-25.1
NA +31.7
+23.6 +19.2
+OJ
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, and April 1958, the peak had teen paused
and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for the reference
peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
*Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Comparisons are made for this series on the-basis of (a) the period 30 months after the February 1961 trough fcetua:
expenditures) and (b) the period 39 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 2nd quarter 1964).
59
Cyclical Patterns
Table 9.--PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
or series with & "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 53, and
54), the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more
(series 9, 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the
base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote
to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after July
specific 1921
trough1
36
17.
19.
23.
24.
Price
Index
Index
Value
per unit of labor cost index
of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
of industrial materials prices
of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units author-
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
NA
*97.8 #100.0
65.1
96.1
NSC
99.8
*99.8 *99.0
3
NSC
36.2
92.2 110.7
#114-6 #108.2 17.3 170.3
NSC *138.1 94.9
*106.8 #110.5 #70.4 41-1 64.0
NA #107.2 #90.3 *101.0 97.6
NA
NA
NA
NSC 36.3
53.9 149.7 *186.3 #122.5 124.2
143.1
96.6 *135.1 *65.1 #92.9 92.3
#100.8 #76.6 69.0
38
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA #211.6 #106.2 #99.2 117.3
36
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
86.3 109.9
NA 104.6
73.8 122.9
71.5 115.6
NA
81.6
73.2 121.6
65.4 125.8
76.9 117.1
107.9
110.8
125.8
128.2
117.6
130.5
132.0
NSC
*105.4
#67.2
#109.2
118.9
109.8
119.4
116.1
110.3
34
31
35
33
33
36
34
32
*91.3 *96.6 #105.6
NA
NA
NA
*112.3 *108.2 #116.2
NSC
NSC
NA
NA
NSC
NSC
NA *111.1 *112.9
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NSC
102.9
#96.5 109.9
*103.0
#78.0
#109.0
#112.4
*107.6
113.8
#108.3
*109.4
105.6
89.5
113.9
119.0
113.6
3
117.3
114.1
116.1
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
36
#+15.4 *+7.9 #+4.5
30 **-118.5 #+82.6 #+40.1
34 #+23.6 *+42.9 #+20.5
NA
NA
NA
34
NSC
38 *+46.2 +68.0
36 #+75.0 #+36.7 #+7.3
-3.8
+15.2
+3.9
#+4.1 #+5.2
+5.5
3
NSC +34.9 +19.0
NA +16.3
+78.9
NSC #+51.7 +11.0
+8.2
#+12.8 -48.5
NA
NA *+15. 2 #+6.8 #+9.4 +2.2
+138.4 -1.3 +80.2 *fl.09.6 #+48.1 +38.0
+85.6 +49.4 *+100.3 #+24.7 #+17. 4 +0.9
38
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA *+l80.1 #+89.9 *+36.7 +27.0
36
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (ft)..
June
1938
*45.2
*86.3
NA
*99.2
*71.3
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
Personal income
Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
Sales of retail stores.,. ...................
Mar.
1933
30
34
34
38
36
29. Index of new private housing units author-
49.
50.
52 *
53.
54.
Nov.
1927
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space?,..
July
1924
34
31
35
33
33
36
34
32
NA
NA
#+56.3 +47.5
#+32.6 **-12.0 #+11.5 +26.2 +23.2 +13.7
NA
NA +55.7 +90.7 +141.0
NA
*+66.1 #+31.7 #+24.9 +58.3 +81.8 +39.6
NSC +42.0 +37.8 +33.0
NSC
NA
NA +20.4
NA
NSC +21.1
NSC
*+32.8 *+15.3 #+15.9 +48.8 +39.2 +36.8
NA +83.8 +72.1 +51.0
NA
NA
NSC
NSC +49.9 +44.9
NSC
+20.7
#+9.1
#+58.1
#+21.3
+22.2
+13.9
+20.9
+25.6
+16.0
#+7.6 +8.0
«+50.4 +28.3
#+27.2 +23.1
#+16.4 +19.9
#+12.5 +15.7
+15.1 3+17.9
#+17.6 +20.1
#+13.7 +21.0
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
^Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the month
indicated in the first column. The figure shown represents the change to the specific peak and the period covered is
shorter
than that of the current expansion (col. 1). See appendix B for specific peak dates.
1
Based on period of the most recent specific expansion for each series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough to
the latest month shown in table 1. The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by an
asterisk.
Specific trough dates are shown in appendix B.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 1 and the high
preceding that low.
Appendixes
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle
reference dates
Trough
Contraction Expansion
(trough
to
from pre- (trough
peak)
vious peak)
Cycle
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October i860.
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873.
March 1882
XXX
18
8
32
18
65
8
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893.
December 1895
June 1899
September
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
30
22
XXX
XXX
40
Its
34
36
48
30
78
36
99
101
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
May 1907
January 1910.
January 1913.
August 1918..
January 1920.
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
46
43
35
51
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926.
August 1929..
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
1
11
27
21
50
80
37
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May I960
13
~9
9
35
25
58
44
34
48
34
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961.
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
ft
22
f
52
3
46
NOTE? Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
*25 cycles, 1857-1960.
<21 cycles, 1857-1960.
2
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
*3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.
61
Appendixes
62
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. Reference date^; art
those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected leading
and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in—
Selected series
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers , manufacturing
Dec. '60
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
13. Number of new business incorporat ions
Jan. '61
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. Feb.1 61
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Oct. '60
23. Index of industrial
mat. prices....Dec. '60
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Nov.* 60
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits-. Dec. '60
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagriculFeb. '61
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) May '61
47. Index of industrial production
Jan. '61
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
IstQ' 61
50. GNP In 1954 dollars (Q)
lstQ'61
NSC
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction.
Feb, '61
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr. ' 61
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
July
1924
mm
Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 Jun.'32 Apr. '2ft Jul.'24 Feb. '21
Jun..'58 NSC
Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul.'24 Mar, '21
Feb, '49
NSC
Dec. '53 my '49
Sep. '53 Jun.'49
Feb . ' 54Jun.'49
Sep. '39
NA
Apr. '38
Jun.'38
Dec. '34
NA
Jun.'32
Jul.'32
Dec, '26
NA
NSC
Aug. '28
Jun,'24
NA
Get, '23
Jun.'24
Jan. '21
NA
Aug*'21
Jul.'2li
Feb. '58 Mar. '54 Apr. '49 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Feb. '58 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
May '58
Jul.'58
Apr. '58
IstQ' 58
IstQ1 58
Feb. '58-
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
2ndQ'49
2ndQ'49
Oct,'49
Jun.'38
Jun.'38
May '38
2ndQ'38
IstQ' 38
May '38
Mar. '33
May '33
Jul.'32
IstQ' 33*
3rdQ' 32
Mar. '33
Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
NSC
4thQ'26
Jul.'24
NA
Jul.'24
NSC
Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dec. '57
Apr. '58
Aug. '54
Sep. '54
Apr. '54
2ndQ' 54
2nd Q' 54
Mar. '54
Apr. '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 Juu.'38 Mar. '33 NA
May '38 mr.'33 NSC
Mar. '58 Jan. '54 NSC
Jul,'21
NA
Apr. '21
4thQ'21
NA
me
2nd Q' 24 2nd(J'21
NA
NSC
1
NA
Mar. '22
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in—
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1- Average workweek of production
Apr. » 59
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
13. Number of new business incorporations
Apr. '59
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. May '59
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59
23. Index of industrial
mat. prices....Nov. '59
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Jul.'59
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov. '58
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural establishments....
Apr, '60
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb.!60
47* Index of Industrial production..... Jan. '60
49 . GNP in current dollars ( Q)
2ndQ'60
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q)
2ndQ'60
NSC
53, Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
May '60
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr. '60
NA not available.
Nov. '55 Apr. '53 NSC
Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov,'S2 NA
Jfer.'56 NSC
Mar. '46 Jul.'37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19
Feb. '56
Dec. '55
Jul.'56
Dec. '55
Jul.'46
Jan. '48
Jun,'48
Jan. '48
Jan. '29
NA
Sep. '29
Mar, '29
Oet,'25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25
Apr. '23
NA
Mar. '23
Mar. '23
Dec.1 19
NA
Jul,'19
Apr. '20
Nov. '56 Feb. '51 Apr. '48 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Jul.'48
Jan. '48
Jul.'48
4thQ'48
4thQ'48
Oct. '48
Jul.'37
Jul.'37
toy '37
3rdQ'37
3rdQ'37
Jun.'37
Aug. '29
NA
Jul.'29
3rd Q' 29
3rd Q' 29
Aug. '29
Jan, '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 26
Jun.»23
NA
rfey '23
NSC
NSC
IstQ' 24
Jan. '20
NA
Feb* '20
NA
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NA
JU1.'20
NSC
Feb. '51
Jan. '53
Feb, '51
Feb. '55 NA
Mar. ' 57
Mar. '57
Feb. '57
3rdQ'57
3rdQ'$7
Aug. '57
Jul.'53
Jun.'53
Jul.'53
2ndQ' 53
2nd Q1 53
Oct. '53
Dec. '36
NA
Feb. '37
Mir. '37
JuU'57 Jul.'53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29 NA
Aug.* 57 Mar. ' 53NSC
Sep,'37 Sep. '29 NSC
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
Appendixes
63
Appendix C-AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
I/c
Monthly series
CI
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I
CI
MCD
C
C
I/c
.21
1.72
1.18
4.02
2.00
2.73
1.09
2.00
2
3
2
3
.95
.89
.59
.70
2.15
1.85
2.27
2.21
1.65
1.54
1.63
1.73
10.58
9.00
9.77
8.40
4.06
5.64
5.25
5.39
3.99
4.29
5
.89
1.63
1.44
6.35
3.08
2.49
1.86
2
.86
1.72
1.51
9.77
3.94
1.61
2.02
3
.59
1.67
1.54
8.33
4.56
1.61
2.49
3
.84
1.76
1.51
12.50
3.62
9.43
4.61
7.31
1.67
1.47
1.14
5.65
3.14
6.41
6
4
6
C1)
.82
C1)
1.70
1.82
1.53
1.54
6.63
1:59 10.75
6.13
1.53
3.03
3.71
2.32
3.39
2.36
1.48
1.10
2.29
2.15
3
3
.68
.77
1.89
2.10
1.53
1.70
14.38
6.30
3.32
3.02
2.52
6.49
6
C1)
1.48
1.32
5.77
2.26
2.11
.33
1.67
6.07
1.70
1.11
6
2
2
C1)
.94
.68
1.53
2.23
2.35
1.37
1.74
1.67
9.77
7.47
12.70
5.30
3.60
3.94
I
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
.49
.42
Accession rate, manufacturing
4.92
4.69
Nonagricultural placements, all industries.... 1.82
1.29
Layoff rate manufacturing
9.52
8.05
Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
17.76 17.12
5. Average weekly initial claims fur unemployment insurance , State programs
5.29
4.62
6. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, durable
3.79
3.25
24. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machin4.47
4.01
2.
30.
3.
4.
9. Construction contracts awarded for commer9.66
10, Contracts and orders for plant and equipment.. 4.93
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started.... 7.34
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
3.82
2.68
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100 000 and over
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
16.86
16.36
13.09 12.81
.56
.69
1.86
2.65
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
26. Buying policy — production materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
6.81
5.29
3.10
1.71
3
.66
2.54
1.76
10.58
4.63
5.81
5.32
2.14
2.49
3
.76
1.87
1.63
12.70
3.91
4.73
.74
1.17
1.41
2
2
.79
.95
3.53
2.44
2.12
2.05
9.77
11.55
4.20
4.06
7.68
5.54
23 . ITI^PX of Indus trial TW-tpTiais prices * - r r T * . 1.32
. . . 1.04
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
.30
.15
.25
.60
1
.60
5.29
2.05
14.11
5.29
.35
* *•..» • 4.14
5.50
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
4.82
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
3.38
.29
2.98
4.46
.19
2.45
2.96
1.53
1.22
1.51
2
2
2
.76
.65
.70
1.98
2.40
2.10
1.55
1.65
1.34
14.11
7.47
9.36
3.23
3.41
3.78
2.56
3.56
.72
1
.72
3.74
2.12
9.07
3.74
2,27
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor
43 . Unemployment rate
total .*...»...
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
2.38
.93
1
.93
2.27
1.41
9.07
1.09
1.48
.49
.58
1.44
*27
.79
.60
.41
.73
2.40
.66
1
3
1
.73
.54
.66
3.53
1.69
3.43
2.05
1.53
1.84
9.77
18.14
18.14
3.53
4.31
3.43
.81
.78
.53
.63
.61
.44
.87
1.43
1
2
.87
.85
3.43
2.53
1.90
1.80
11.55
9.54
3.43
3.62
.17
.10
.13
.77
1
.77
3.53
2.65
11.55
3.53
2.21
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
V
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
.65
.48
.36
1.33
2
.72
2.27
1.55
9.07
4.34
.54
.19
.49
.39
1
.39
8.33
2.02
13.89
8.33
.80
.83
.54
.17
.49
.78
1.10
.22
2
1
.53 2.40
.22 11.45
1.42
2.29
15.63
18.00
5.17
11.45
64. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories,
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods all manufacturing Indus
See footnotes at end of table.
Appendixes
64
Appendix C.-AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Monthly series
T/c
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I
MCD
CI
C
1
6
6
.77
C1)
(M
6.00
1.51
1.74
2.25 25.20
1.41
8.47
1.57 7.47
6.00
2.18
2.60
3.95
3.58
3.96
6.45
5.47
4
4
5
6
6
.96
.85
.84
C11)
C)
1.77
1.59
1.52
1.51
1.47
1.66
1.51
1.45
1.46
1.43
7.06
7.53
7.88
5.93
6.61
a. 97
3.59
a, 2?
a. 48
4.28
6
<x)
1.58
1.47
5.95
£,86
.43
5.95
1.87
13.89
5.95
.89
,81
.72
.93
.89
.64
.67
T/C
for
QCD
span
C
T/c
.10
5.59
5.20
.13
.82
.95
.77
6.82
5.47
4.59
4.39
3.61 3.47
6.69
7.03
26.87 26.37
15.12 14.78
1.11
.97
1.69
4.09
2.70
6.12
ET
I
.15
5.68
5.37
MOD
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
83. Federal cash receipts from the public.
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
total. ..,
87. General Imports, total
94. Index of construction contracts, total value.
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement..
91. Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S.
26.25 26.21
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
.57
1.34
.43
1
.90
1.42
1.36
1.44
1.70
.83
1.09
.77
1.18
1.20
1.41
1.07
.50
.47
.52
.69
.68
.74
1.23
1.66
2.32
1.48
1.71
1.76
1.91
.87
2
3
2
2
2
3
1
CI
I
C
T/c
1.51
2,75
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
.86
121, OECD European countries, index of indus. prod..
1.14
122. United Kingdom index of indus. prod
125. West Germany index of indus. prod
127. Italy index of indus . prod
128. Japan, index of indus. prod
\
Quarterly series
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602
manufacturing corporations
QCD
3.47 2.40 31.25
2.40
1.87 8.93
3.47 2.12 15.63
2.86 2.14 18.00
3.21 2.08 25. 00
2.70
1.82 31.00
2.91
1.52 17.86
Average duration of
(ADR)
I
C
CI
7.75
3.59
8.27
3,43
U.27
6.42
2.91
rim
QCD
11.15
7.66
7.00
4.54
7.59
5.35
.92
.85
1
1
.92
.85
2.82
2.83
1,48
1.65
5.17
3.64
2.82
2.83
7.73
5.06
5.01
1.01
2
.51
2.83
1.42
5.67
3.85
5.78
3.73
4.17
.89
1
*89
2.89
1.49
5.50
2.89
1.44
.65
.69
.82
1.13
1.59
1.45
.58
.43
.57
1
1
1
.58
.43
.57
3.19
4.25
4.64
1.50
1.42
1.46
5.10
6.38
7.29
3.19
4.23
4.64
3.61
1.49
2.94
.51
1
.51
4.64
1.55
5.67
4.64
1.02
.60
.84
.71
1
.71
2.68
1.31
7.29
2,68
2.96
1.94
2.37
.82
1
.82
2.68
1.55
6,38
2.68
6.27
1.26
5.79
.22
1
.22
4.38
1.94
5.83
4.30
18, Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
49. Gross national product in current dollars.... 1.88
57, Final sales (series 49 minus 21)
1.60
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturi ng
NOTE: Measures for monthly series are computed for the
period, January 1953 to mid-1963, except for series 7, 86,
and 87; for series 7, the period begins with May 1959 and
for series 86 and 87, the period ends with June 1962.
^•Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures
shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in
Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal
of Business, October 1957).
11
CT'. is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
seasonally adjusted series. " P is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the eyeHeal component into the seasonally adjusted series, "C" i« the
same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is snail for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component for 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.Mar.,, Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans. Averages,
without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes
Appendixes
65
NOTES FOR APPENDIX C—Continued
over each span. MOD is the shortest span in months for
which the average percentage change (without regard to
sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average
percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted
series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular
movements. Since changes are not computed for spans greater
than 5 months, all series with an MCD greater than "5" are
shown as "6". Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of
the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in
quarters) for which the average percentage change (without
regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in
the irregular component, and remains so.
series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is a moving average
(with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally
adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between
1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month
intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series,
the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
CI is 1.58 for series 10, Contracts and Orders for Plant
and Equipment. This indicates that 1-month changes in the
seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign
about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR
measures shown in the next two columns, 1.43 for I and
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
11.45 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series
has been successfully separated into an essentially random
adjusted series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally,
month spansjand for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD
ADR is 3.35 for the MCD moving average. This indicates
is "6", no I/C_ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarthat a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
terly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of the average, about every 3 months. The increase in the ADR
from 1.58 for CI to 3.35 for the MCD moving average indismoothness and is equal to the average number of consecucates that, for this series, month-to-month changies in the
tive monthly changes in the same direction in any series
of observations. When there is no change between 2 months,
MCD moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclicala change in the same direction as the preceding change is
trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
Appendix D.-CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBER
{NOVEMBER 1962 TO DECEMBER 1963)
lc?63
1<>62
Cil-H-t QCl
Nov. Dec.
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff all industries.
5. Av. weekly initial claims for
13. No. of new business incorp. *
14. Cur. liabilities of bus. failures.
15. No. of bus. failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over...
17. Price per unit of labor cost
18. Profits (before taxes) per2 dol.
of sales, all mfg. corp.
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus.1.
37. Purchased materials, percent re55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
62. Index of labor cost per unit of
83.4 102.6 121.0
116.2
Mar. Apr.
May
June July Aug.
97.5
92.2
83.8
82.2
104.8 132.5 140.7 109.1 97.3 94.3 82.7
86.8 94.3 120.0 91.0 104.2 106.8 106.7
99.9 89.9 105.1 105.2 107.5 112.3 96.7
96.0
88.6 111.3
101.1 98.1
98.8
95.3 80.4
96.2
113.6
116.8 110.4
99.9
82.6 103.0
85.5
96.8 103.5 93.8
96.4 84.7 111.7
94.9 105.5
89.3
95.9
98.6 100.6 100.9 100.5 100.0 101.0
95.4
99.3
83.1
106.1
97.9
75.9 89a 103.3 110.5
106*.3 105.7
99.9 100.0 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.0
98.8 101.7
101.9 99.7
99.5
99.8 100.0
99.9
99.9
98.9
104.7
Sept, Oct.
140.7 89.7
88.4
Nov.
77.7
90.9 105.0
88.3 101,4 82.5
92.8 97.4 100.2
89.6
88.7
Dec.
81.9 102.7
96.0
101.8 103.4 101,2
98.8
97.4
113.5 119.6 116.4 94.0
98.8 109.0 108.5 110.6 109.4 102.1 96.1 93.9 91.6
- T - - 100.1 100.0
82. Federal cash payments to public.. 104.8 98.3
83. Federal cash receipts from pub... 102.3 105.1
90. Defense Department obligations —
96.0 117.4
91. Defense Dept. oblig. total
90.7 105.0
92. Military prime contract awards
72.9 108.5
128. Japan, index of industrial pro99,6 103.2
rtl , Inrtpv of finngnmer prlcps , T
Jan. Feb.
132*5
94.3
89.3
88.5
98.1
82.7
91.9
92.5 96.1 98.9
99.8
99.9
99.8
99,9
100.0
100.4
98.2
96.5
98,8
101.7
99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.0
99.8 99.9 99.9 100.0 99.8 99.9 100.0
95.6 114.4 93.8 102.8 105.2
90.8 98.9 92.3 98.9 103.2 106.0
98.3
70.0 113.1 129.6 79.0 119.3 149.5 49.0 113.3 124.4 46.0 102.8 105.1
76.9
90.6
91.6 132.2 81.2
96.4
90.0 117.7
69.2 192.7
84.7 148.2
77.9
96.7
78.1 97,1
86.7
97,2
89.5
79.7 125.3
92.8 216.4
68.0
72.9 92.7 90,4
94.3 100.3 109.1
93.2
99.4 100.2 100.4 98.8
96.5
98.6
89.2
95,4
99.8
96.0
90.7
117,4
105.0
72.9 108.5
99.6
103.2
These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau oif the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency
will be substituted whenever they are published,
1
Factors are a combination of seasonal and trading-day factors,
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
Appendixes
66
Appendixes E and F, not included in this issue, appeared in the September 1963 issue.
Appendix G.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Series are in one of the following categories:
(l) Those that are new to the report,,
historically, and (3) those for which historical data have not been shown previously.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
(2) those that have been revlned
See table 1 for later data.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dee.
1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (Hours per production worker) 1
1948
1949
1950
1931
1952
1953
1934
40.4
39.3
39.7
40.9
40.6
41.0
39.4
40.2
39.4
39.7
40.8
40.7
40.9
39.6
40.3
39.0
39.7
41.0
40.6
41.0
39.4
40.2
38.6
40.1
41.2
40.1
41.1
39.4
40.3
38.8
40.2
40.9
40.4
40.8
39.5
40.2
38.9
40.5
40.7
40.5
40.7
39.5
40.0
39.1
40.9
40.6
40.2
40.7
39.7
40.1
39.1
41.1
40.3
40.5
40.5
39.7
39.8
39.5
40.7
40.4
41.1
39.8
39.6
39.8
39.5
40.9
40.1
41.1
40.1
39.5
39. B
39.1
41.1
40.4
41.0
39.7
40.0
39.5
39.3
40.9
40.6
41.1
39.6
39.9
1955
1956
1957.
1958
1959
1960 . *
40.3
40.7
40.3
38.7
40.1
40.6
40.4
40.5
40.4
33.6
40.2
40.2
40.6
40.4
40.2
38.7
40.4
39.9
40.5
40.7
40.1
38.6
40.6
39.7
40.9
40.2
39.9
38.8
40.5
40.0
40.6
40.1
39.9
39.0
40.5
39.8
40.6
40.2
39.9
39.2
40.1
, 39.8
40.5
40.1
39.8
39.4
40.2
39.6
40.9
40.5
39.7
39.6
40.2
39.5
40.9
40.5
39.3
39.5
40.0
39.6
41.0
40.3
39.2
39.9
39.9
39.3
40.7
40.5
39.0
39. B
40.2
38.4
194g
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
129.6
117.1
94.5
173.7
130.8
102.6
92.0
124.7
110.7
93.6
175.1
123.8
101.9
91.4
119.7
102.2
93-3
170.1
118.9
103.0
92.7
121.2
91.6
94.4
167.8
115.5
98.2
96.1
120.4
90.3
98.6
165.4
113.8
97.5
97.1
121.8
87.4
102.2
157.4
110.8
97.0
97.8
121.6
89.0
113.3
139.6
109.3
96.3
96.7
122.4
93.9
128.2
134.6
108.8
95.8
96.3
120.7
95.4
143.3
133.1
109.2
93.7
97.7
118.5
91.5
146.7
136.0
106.1
90.8
99.4
121.8
94.2
159.4
134.0
106.1
93.2
99.9
119.9
93.2
164.7
133.8
105.2
93.1
99.7
1955.......
1956
195?
1958
1959
1 960
102.1
112.6
109.4
93.2
99.6
105.7
103.7
110.8
106.0
93.4
99.5
104.3
101.8
111.1
105.7
92.6
101.1
102.4
103.4
111.6
104.7
90.2
102.1
103.8
102.2
107.7
103.8
90.6
102.8
104.1
103.4
104-8
104.4
92.1
103.2
102.7
107.2
105.3
103.8
94.7
103.2
101.6
108.6
108,2
103.1
96.4
103.7
102.1
110.0
110.2
100.0
96.3
105.1
101.2
109.2
109.4
96.9
99.3
105.8
99.7
110.7
112.3
94.9
101.8
105.9
98.5
114.0
1,12.4
94.3
100.3
104.8
96.8
23. Index of industrial materials prices (1957-59=100)
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (Annual rate, billions of dollars) 1
1948
1949
1950
1951
] 952
]953
1954..
+9^6
+1.7
+28.6
+6.2
+20,1
-4.5
+10.4
+0.8
-0.6
+17.8
-0.7
+2.6
-5.7
+8.2
-3.1
+4.6
+18.5
-0.2
+5.0
-3.5
+4.8
-7.9
+2.8
+22.8
-1.8
+8.3
-4.5
+2.4
-6.5
+7.6
+8.9
-3.8
+4.0
-3.9
+9.9
-6.0
+7.1
+10.5
+0.9
+4.3
-3.2
+9.1
-4.6
-2.6
+6.3
-5.3
+9.9
-2.5
+4.7
-3.0
+21.6
+4.6
-1.1
+3.0
-5.2
+4.7
+0.6
+13.1
+0.1
+10.4
+2.6
-1.7
+4.6
-3.9
+20.1
+2.4
+9.3
-5.0
-4.1
+2. 8
-5.7
+23.7
+2.7
+5.8
-7.2
+3.0
-0.9
-7.3
+17.0
+3.1
+4.0
-3.4
-1.6
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
] 960
+3.4
+9.2
+6.9
-7.4
+5.0
+10.7
+3.9
+12.5
+3.4
-6.7
+5.0
+11.2
+8.3
+4.9
+1.9
-5.6
+5.1
+13.5
+1.8
+12.7
+3.0
-8.0
+13.3
-2.0
+6.4
+7.3
+1.3
-7.3
+7.6
+6.8
+7.6
+7.0
-0.1
-2.9
+10.4
+1.2
+5.8
+2.8
+6.5
-3.7
+7.3
+2.4
+9.7
+5.0
+4.3
-1.7
-0.9
-1.8
+4.6
+7.8
+5.2
+5.0
-6.0
+2.4
+10.9
+4.6
-6.0
+2.0
+0.1
-1.5
+7.9
+10.7
-1.0
+3.2
-1.7
-1.7
+8.0
+4.5
-0.4
+7.0
+13.5
-8.9
x
Data are seasonally adjusted.
67
Index
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Numbers shown are page numbers)
Series
number1
1
2
Tables
Charts
1
3....
4....
5....
6....
7
9....
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
10
11
12
13-...
14. ...
15....
16....
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
2
•-
3
1
2
48
53
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
21
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
21
21
21
22
22
22
22
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
22
22
22
23
22
22
23
20
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
23
23
21
20
23
23
23
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
25
30
30
30
30
30
31
31
31
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
--
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
..
28
27
27
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
28
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
48
53
49; 54
49' 54
9
9
9
10
10
9
10
7
25....
26....
29....
30....
31....
32....
37....
10
10
7
6
10
10
10
40....
41....
42....
43....
45....
46....
47....
49....
11
11
11
11
11
11
12
12
50....
51....
52....
53....
54....
55....
57....
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
61....
62....
63....
64....
65....
66....
67....
14
14
14
14
14
14
81....
82....
83....
84.....
85....
86....
87....
88....
89. ...
90....
91....
17
16
16 . . • .
16
17
..
15.
15
*.
15
15
16
16
n
5
..
17
18
19....
20
21
22
23....
24. ...
3
4
49
49
48
48
54
54
53
53
50
55
50
55
51
51
55
56
56
51
51
50
50
56
56
55
52
..
. . . . 52
52
52
**
••
4
5
••
--
..
Appendixes
7
8
9
A
58
58
58
59
••
57
57
57
62 63
. . . . 63
••
•-
c
6
••
57 ' 58
57 58
57 58
59
••
B
62
63
63
63
63
63
63
D
E
F2
G3
66 (I-1 64)
••
••
65
65
••
66 (111' 63)
66 (7-< 63)
66 (7-'63)
63
64
..
57
57
58
58
•*
57
58
••
•*
••
••
59
1t
57
58
59
••
••
57
58
59
••
57
57
••
58
58
63
63
63
64
65
65
65
62
63
64
63
65
65
••
tt
•*
62
..
59
59
62
--
••
66 (8-' 63)
66 ( ll->63)
••
••
68 (6-' 63)
•.
66 (12!' 63)
62
62
64
63
63
62
63
63
63
65
63
63
65
•••
••
66 (I-1 64)
66 (12-' 63)
66 (!2-'£3)
••
••
••
••
57
58
59
**
-•
••
-•
••
57
58
59
••
62
•-
•-
••
••
57
58
59
••
62
57
57
58
58
59
59
62
62
57
57
57
58
58
58
59
62
57
57
58
58
'•
57
57
58
58
,.
••
••
••
57
58
•-
••
••
*•
57
57
58
58
••
••
•-
..
..
..
••
..
••
..
t1
••
••
••
••
••.
••
2
59
59
59
••
**
. , 66 (l61'63)
66 (l-'64)
68 (el'63)
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
64
64
63
62 63
62 63
62 63
. * 63
64
64
63
64
63
63
63
64
•.
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
66 (10-' 63)
66 (10-' 63)
65
• . -•
68 (6-'63)
65
-
64
64
64
65
65
65
64
64
••
.. .
64
64
65
65
..
^•See back cover for series titles and sources.
Page number shown is for the September 1963 issue.
3
Date in
indicates issue in which data are shown.
Digitized
forparentheses
FRASER
•;
••
Index
68
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES.-Continued
(Numbers shown are page numbers)
Series
numb or1 1
92....
93....
94. ...
95....
96....
97....
98....
16
17
17
16
17
17
17
121...
122...
123...
125...
126...
127...
128...
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
Dl....
D5....
D6..,.
Dll...
D19...
D23...
D33...
D34. . .
Charts
2
oa...
4
5
1
•.
28
28
28
27
28
28
28
••
**
*.
2
3
4
5
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
7
8
9
A
B
**
36
37
36
36
37
3?
36
37
••
40
44
41
..
42
43
38
38
34
34
3838
35
back cover for series titles and sources.
D
E
F
64
63
••
••
64
••
••
••
64
64
••
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
G
.,
.*
••
••
65
45
46
39
35
34
34
C
39
39
35
35
6
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
D35...
D36. . .
D47...
D48...
D54. . .
D58...
D6l...
3
Appendixes
Tables
• •»
47
39
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. *'M" indicates monthly series and"Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ".
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M),--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).--
5.
*6.
*7.
*9.
10.
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). --Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M)«—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
New private nonfarm d w e l l i n g units started (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing cor-
*12.
13.
*14.
15.
* 16.
porations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Number of business failures with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and
over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M).— Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing cor-
porations (Q).--Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20* Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies (EOM)»—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of prof its (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, a l l
industries (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24* Value of manufacturers* new orders, machinery and equipment
Industries(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25* Change In manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM)«—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, alt industries (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade Inventories,
total (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).»
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased mat«r ials(M).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rote, married males, spouse present (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Ml. Number of employees in nonagrtculturol establishments (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonogricultural employment, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rote, State programs
(M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).--Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Lobor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).--Department of
merce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*6l. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).->
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62» Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and
salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).~Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP in 1954 dollars) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economic s
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing In*
dustries (EOM)*—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
all
manufacturing industries (EOM).-*Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).—Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base).
*67. Bonk rates on short-term business loons, 19 cities (Q).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on. reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
PENALTY FON PI* I VAT I UftK TO AVOID
PAYMENT OF POtTAOE, «1OO
(OPOI
WV)S*0*J OF rllBtlC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
18 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81. Index of consumer price* (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
62. Federal cosh payments to the public (M).--Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment.
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).—Treasury Depart-
ment, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the
President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly
totals or the official seasonally adjusted series because of
differences in the method of seasonal adjustment,
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).--Treasury Department, Bu-
reau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment.
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M).-- Board of Governors of the Federal ReSystem
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Q).-Nutum-il
Industrial Conference Hoard; component industries ar>* seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).—
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve- System
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M).--Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M). —Organ-
ization for Economic Cooperation and Development
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).--Domini on Bureau
of Statistics, Ottawa
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).--Organiza-
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
126. France, index of industrial production (M).--Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
127.
Italy,
index of industrial
production (M).-Organisation far
Economic Cooperation and Development
128. Jopan, Index of Industrial production (M).—Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Japan); seasonal adjustment by
compiler and Bureau of the Census
... United States, index of industrial production (M).--See series 4?.
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—Depart-
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
DIFFUSION INDEXES
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).-De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in US.
balance of payments
(Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).-Department of De-
fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).--De-
partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings)
(M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).--F. W. Dodge
Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96* Manufacturers'unfilled orders, durable goods Industries (EOM).—
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
The "D1* preceding a number indicates a d i f f u s i o n index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series hear the same
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above
for Dl, D5, I>6, "H, I>19, D23, D41, D47, 1>54( and D61. Sources fur
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D33.
Profits, Chicago PAA (M).--Purchasing Agents Association
of Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
034. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank
of New York; no seasonal adjustment (tf series components.
Diffusion indexes sire seasonally adjusted by N a t i o n a l
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).—Dun ami Uradstreet, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Oun and Bradstrect,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48* Freight carloadings (Q).—Association of American Railroads;
no seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment o; series
components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted hy
National Bureau of Economic Research. Inc.
@FedFRASER