Full text of Business Conditions Digest : February 1982

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-*** °*co




U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Robert G. Dederick, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Allan H. Young, Deputy Director
Charles A. Waite, Acting Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Morton Somer—Seasonal adjustments
Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources
at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee under the
auspices of the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards. The Committee consists of
the following persons:
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, Bureau of Industrial Economics, U.S. Department of
Commerce
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Management and Budget
Ronald E. Kutscher, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
J. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents wore based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Annual subscription price: $60 domestic, $75
foreign. Single copy price: $5.50 domestic,
$6.90 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available
upon request. Address all correspondence

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.

concerning subscriptions to the Superintendent
of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to the Superintendent of Documents.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue

>

BCII

in

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6

FEBRUARY 1 9 8 2
Data Through January
Volume 22, Number 2

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Al
A3
A4

Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

.

chart

Table

10
12
14
15

60

BY ECONOMIC PRQOESS
Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7

Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

Cl

Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

36
—
39

74
77
—

C2
C3

The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is
necessary in the transaction of the public
business required by law of this Department. Use



of funds for printing this periodical has peen approved by the Director of the Office of
Management and Budget through September 1,
1983.

KCII




PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT
Al
A2
A4_
A5
A6
A7
A8

GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases o1 Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving,
Shares of GNP and National Income

Bl
B2

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

,

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

,.

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

...
..

Chart

Table

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

BO
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

48
49

84
87

51

89

52
53

90
9C

56
57

92
93

58
59
59

94
95
96

PART III APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
,
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
98
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
104
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (April 1981 issue}
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
...
105
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
110
Titles and Sources of Series
114

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
Changes in this issue are as follows:

time to time to in-

1. New seasonal adjustment factors have been computed
for 23 series using the X-ll variant of the Census Method II
seasonal adjustment program. New factors are shown in appendix B for all of these series except 9, 10, 112, 732c, 733c,
and 735c-738c. The table below shows the beginning date for
application of the new factors to each series:

corporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,

Series
number

Beginning date for
new factors

1 Series
number

Beginning date for
new factors

comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark

5
9
10
13
15
33
72
112
517
525
543
570

January 1978
January 1980
January 1978
January 1979
IV Q 1981
January 1978
January 1972
February 1972
December 1981
January 1979
January 1979
January 1980

580
604
606
614
616
732c
733c
735c
736c
737c
738c

January 1979
January 1982
January 1982
January 1982
January 1982
October 1975
October 1972
May 1976
November 1974
November 1972
October 1974

2. The composite index of leading indicators (series
910) and diffusion index of leading indicator components
(series 950) have been revised for the period February 1981 ,
to date to reflect the substitution of average weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance (series 5) for layoff rate
in manufacturing (series 3) as one of the components. This
change is necessary because the Bureau of Labor Statistics
has discontinued its labor turnover series, which included
the accession, layoff, and quit rates (series 2, 3, and 4 ) .
The composite index of marginal employment adjustments
(series 913) will not be updated beyond December 1981 until
suitable replacements for the layoff rate and the accession
rate can be found.
(Continued on page iv.)
The March issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on April 1.



m

data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.

Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic:
Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
3. Severe weather during the January survey week resulted in an aberrant value (36.9) for average workweek in manufacturing (series 1). Accordingly, this series has been omitted from the calculation of the January value for the composite index of
leading indicators (series 910). The effect of the omission is to give the contribution of the average workweek the same value
as that o" the average contribution of the nine other components available for January. If the average workweek figure were included, the index would have declined 2.8 percent in January to a level of 124.2.
4. The series on employment and unemployment in the civilian labor force (series 37, 42-44, 60, 90, 91, 441, 442, 444-448,
and 451-453) have been revised for the period 1970 to date. These revisions reflect the source agency's (a) introduction of
population controls based on the 1980 Decennial Census into the estimation procedures and (b) updated seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning these revisions nay be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Current Employment Analysis, Division of Employment Analysis.
5. Producer price indexes by stage of processing (series 92 and 331-334) have been revised for the period 1977 to date to
reflect the recalculation of seasonal adjustment factors by the source agency.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices and Living Conditions, Division of Industrial Prices and Price Indexes.
6. Saries 7 and 8 (manufacturers1 new orders for durable goods and for consumer goods and materials, in 1972 dollars) and
series 36 (change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars) have been revised for the period 1977 to date on the basin
of revised producer price indexes used as deflators. (See item 5, above.)
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
7. The series on new private housing units started (series 28) has been revised for the period 1979 to date to reflect new
seasonal adjustment factors computed by the source agency.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
Construction Statistics Division.
8. The average weekly insured unemployment rate (series 45) has been revised for the period 1977 to date to reflect the
recalculation of seasonal adjustment factors by the source agency.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Administration, Office of Administration Management.
9. The series on money stock measures (series 85, 102, and 104-108) have been revised by the source agency for the period
1959 to date. These revisions include the updating of seasonal adjustment factors and several benchmark adjustments and compositional changes. The compositional changes resulted in the consolidation of former Ml-A and Ml-B into a single classification,
Ml; the transfer of small-denomination (under $100,000) retail repurchase agreements from M3 to M2; and the transfer of Institution-only money market mutual funds, large-denomination time deposits, and large-denomination term repurchase agreements from H?
to M3.
This issue of BCD contains revised data for the period October 1980 to date. (Revised CPI deflators have not been applied
to data for series 105 and 106 for the period prior to October 1980. See item 11, below.) Revised data for the earlier period
will be shown in a subsequent issue.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Division of Research and Statistics, Banking Section.
10. Data on commercial and industrial loans outstanding (series 72 and 112) have been revised for the period 1972 to date
to take into account recent mergers and other structural changes in the banking system. New seasonal adjustment factors have
been computed also, (See item 1, above.)
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
11. Seasonally adjusted consumer price index data (series 320c and 322) have been revised by the source agency for the
period 1967 to date. These revisions reflect the recalculation of seasonal adjustment factors to include developments through
1981.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices and Living Conditions, Division of Consumer Prices and Price Indexes.
NO£E:

Series 53 has been revised for the period 1967 to date to reflect the new seasonal adjustment of series 320,
which is used as a deflator. Series 105 and 106, which also are deflated by series 320, reflect the new seasonal adjustment of CPI for the period October 1980 to date. Revised data for these series, reflecting the
changes noted in item 9, above, and the new seasonally adjusted CPI will be shown in a subsequent issue.

12. Appendix C contains historical data for series 5, 32, 39, 109, 114-119, 950-952, and 968.
13. Appendix G contains recession comparisons for series 5, 8, 19, 29, 32, 36, 41, and 73.




METHOD OF PRESENTATION

adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment
is sometimes necessary for series
This report is organized into two major parts.
which
contain
considerable variation due to the
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to number of working or trading days in each month.
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of As used in this report, the term "seasonal
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
seasonally
adjusted form and, in most cases, these
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
are
the
official
figures released by the source
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
agencies.
However,
for the special purposes of this
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business report, a number of series not ordinarily published
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in seasonally adjusted basis.
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data, MCD Moving Averages
such as real GIMP and unemployment.) The largest
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
sections relate to prices, labor force, government cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appro-j
and defense-related activities, and international priate span over which to observe cyclical!
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.j
transactions and comparisons.
It is the smallest span of months for which the)
The two parts are further divided into sections
average change in the cyclical factor is greater thar
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic
begin with 1956, but those for the composite
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about th
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus,
format which covers only the period since 1971.
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
will show its cyclical movements about as clearli
shading which indicates periods of recession in
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with afi
general business activity. The tables contain data
MCD of 1.
for only the last few years. The historical data for
The charts in this report generally include
the various time series are contained in the 1977
centered MCD moving averages for those series
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
above, each issue contains a summary table which adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors, observations for the most recent months.
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday



Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates usjed
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according (to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached (its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates
the shading for recessions will be entered on
charts until after both the new reference peak
the new reference trough bounding the shaded ;
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to periodic review by NBER and on occasion are
changed as a result of revisions in important
economic time series. The dates shown in this
publication for the 1948-1970 time period are those
determined by a 1974 review. Since then, NBERihas
designated turning points for the 1973-1975 recession and the 1980 recession.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances;
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conformity to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

1

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
N. Economic
\Process
Cyclical N
Timing
V

LEADING !Ll
INDICATORS
1 IN U | K*r^
1 \J r\<rf

(62 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDEMT(C)
INDICATOFIS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(18 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(8 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES,COSTS,
AND PROF-ITS
(17 series)

VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(6 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Capacity
utilization
(2 series)

New and
unfilled orders
and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption
(2 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
Investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profits and
profit
margins
(7 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)

Money flow*
(3 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

Backlog of
Investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business
Investmeni
expenditures
(5 series)

EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

Duration of
unemployment
(2 series)

Business
investment
expenditures
(1 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

Velocity of
money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Unit labor costs
and tabor share
(4 series)

Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding
debt
(3 series)

Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profit share
(1 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

Trade
(1 series)

Business
investment
commitments
(1 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES.COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)

VII.
MONEY
ANDCREDIT
(26 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(3 series)

Industrial
production
(1 series)

New and unfilled
orders and
deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitmenis
(4 series)
Residentiai
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(1 series;
Commodity
prices
(2 series)
Profits and
profit margin*
(6 series)
Cash flows;
(2 series)

Money flows
(2 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)

Consumption
and trade
(3 series)

Business
Investment
commitments
(1 series)

Profits
(2 series)

Money flow
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)

Unfilled orders
(1 series)

Business
Investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(6 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(3 series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
>v Economic
\Process
CycllcalV
Timing N^^

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(40 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(1 series)




EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
and duration
of
unemployment
(5 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)

In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident




indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first ofi
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the busines:
cycle turns (as represented by the NBER
designated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks anc
troughs, all components of the leading index an
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincides
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence!
namely the performance of the indicators during
the businass cycles of the 1948-70 period, whic
included five peaks and five troughs. While th
timing classifications are expected to agree wit
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instand.
The timing of the series in the post-1970 period cap
be determined by inspection of the charts, where thfe
1973-1975 recession and the 1980 recession arje
shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference
cycle chronology.

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 7 0 ) . Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators,

Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change

Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
This section covers 111 individual time series, based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
including the 22 indicators used in the series.
construction of the composite indexes. The pe^ik
Ttiis section also records rates of change for the
and trough timing classifications are shown on tljie three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
charts in the same manner as described above, bjut lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
this section includes series with different timing at economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such seres change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at 1-quarter spans.
turning points of the given type. Eight series re
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 rates of change for the same aggregates are
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite tjut generally positively correlated, these two measures
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No ser es present information about two related but distinct
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
The classification scheme which groups the change, while rates of change measure the degree
indicators of this section by economic process dnd as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
cyclical timing is summarized in the two diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A| is of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
based on the observed behavior of the series at jive indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, at the business cycle turns as well.

Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
This section contains measures of the civilian
This part is divided into six sections which cover in the physical volume of inventories held by labor force and its major components: Total
private
business.
The
former
incljde
all
private
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
measuring various aspects of economic activity. purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for The number of unemployed is subdivided into
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
goods are also included.
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
Government purchases of goods; and services of worker. Also included are data on participation
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
(A4)
is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
force.
or to selected foreign countries. The represented and purchases from business and from abroad. It
variables include incomes, outputs, and excludes transfer payments, interest paid by Section D. Government Activities
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surlabor resources; government receipts, investment by government enterprises but excludes
expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
ports and imports; and selected indicators for * >w used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
land and financial assets.
government. Also shown is a selection of series
key foreign countries.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense
Indicators,
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which
Section A. National Income and Product
of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national
The national income and product accounts, included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
final expenditures for the personal, business, international transactions is provided in section E.
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the ti:ne at
Section Al shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services
which the activities they measure occur in the
final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
income. The four major components of the gross residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
measuring activities which usually precede pronational product—personal consumption the factor costs of the goods and services production, such as contract awards and new orders,
expenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of
are classified as "advance measures of defense
government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
net exports of goods and services—are presented in persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
coincide with production, such as employment, and
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as
section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period.
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving, shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate measures of defense activity."
briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
government surplus or deficit.
January 1976.
This group includes monthly series on exports
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
Gross national product (GNP) is the market major expenditure components of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also
labor and propely supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and
United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income
most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income.
Section F. International Comparisons
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
nations with which we tove important trade
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
all sources. It s the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
income, rental income of persons, dividends, these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerpersonal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the cor
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inless personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European
income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross bus ness prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inuct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically sen
payments to government.
sitive output measures for large parts of the
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1971.
The group of series on wages and productivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price ingoods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1971) provide
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the
and financial sen/ices received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1971) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.
rates of change for most of these measures.
cluded.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES

4



HOW TO READ CHARTS
Basic Data

Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

*E5iJ
y ^

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Rates of Change

^ ? ^ ^

tnrtt

Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3-or 4-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r -




2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic
Timing
classification 3

Series title

Unit
of
measure

IWtcte*.

W

Avenge

Nov.
•

1980

1981

2dQ

3dQ

4th Q

1981

1981

1981

Nov.
1981

Dec.
1981

Jan.
1932

Oee.

te
Dee,

J.iii,

1981

1882

2dQ
to
3dQ
1981

to
1981

3
c

s

1

(.CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A. Composite Indexes
910 Twelve leading indicators
920. Four coincident indicators
930 Six lagg rrg indicators

UL,L
C,C,C
LQ LQ I_Q

Leading Indicate Subgroups:
913. Margina employment adjustments
914, Capittri investment commitments
911). inventory investment and purchasing
916, Profitability
917. Money and financial flows

1967=100 . .
do. . . .
do

131.2
140.3
176.8

133.2
141.4
187.9

136.2
142.3
186.7

133.3
142.4
193.9

128.2
138.4
185.4

128.2
138.7
184.8

127.8
136.6
181.7

127.0
134.4
184.3

-0.3
-1.5
-1.7

-0.6
-1.6
1*3

do.
do.
do.
do
do.

92.9
103.3
102.4
NA
138.8

94.5
105.0
103.8
94.0
139.7

93.2
102.2
103.0
92.6
139.0

89.9
99.9
99.9
NA
137.8

90.2
99.7
99.8
90.0
138.0

89.1
100.6
99.2
NA
138.1

NA
100.5
98.4
NA
138.8

-1.2
0.9
-0.6
NA

NA
-0.1
-0.0
NA

...

92.9
107.2
101.0
90.8
135.6

0.1

39.7
2.8
3.5
480
1.7
1.5

39.8
2.8
3.2
446
1.6
1.3

40.2
3.0
3.3
400
1.2
1.3

39.8
2.9
3.2
433
1.4
1.4

39.3
2.5
2.9
536
2.2
1.1

39.3
2.5
3.1
539
2.3
1.1

39.0
2.4
2.7
S51
2.2
1.1

36.9
2.2
NA
563
NA
NA

-0.8
-0.1
-0.4
-2.2
0.1
0.

0.508
129

0.429
119

0.440
119

0.439
118

0.360
110

0.363
111

0.339
109

169.83
95,938
90,564
25,718

170.82
97,030
91,548
25,676

170.91
97,377
91,546
25,741

170.05
97,286
91,938
25,933

170.18
96,723
91,483
25,399

170.05
96,800
91,522
25,418

169.85
96,404
91,096
25,117

165.44
96,170
90,859
24,761

-0.1
-0.4
-0.5
-1.2

-2.6
-0.2
-0.3
-1.4

-0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.7

0.1
-0.6
-0.5
-2.1

4!
4
4
4(

58.47

58.28

58.61

58.33

57.78

57.85

57.47

57.40

-0.38

-0.0 7

-0.20

-0.55

9f

7,637
7.1
3.9
11.9
1.7

8,273
7.6
3.4
13.7
2.1

8,050
7.4
3.3
13.8
2.1

8,013
7.4
3.2
14.0
2.0

9,113
8.4
3.8
13.2
2.2

9,100
8.3
3.9
13.1
2.2

9,571
8.8
4.1
12.8
2.2

9,298
8.5
4.0
13.5
2.2

-3.2
-0.S
-0.2
2.3
0.

2.9
O.i
0.1
-5.5
0.

O.S
0.
0.1
-1.4
0.1

-13.7
-1.0
-0.6
5.7
-0.2

V
4

1480.7 1510.1 1510.4 1515.8 1497.6
1207.5 1240.5 1236.6 1247.9 1246.9 1249.7 1243.6 1241.8
1043.2 1068.6 1067.3 1073.0 1072.8 1075.5 1068.8 1066.6

-O.I
-0.2

0.4
0.9
0.5

-1.2

-0.5
-0.6

L.L.L

U.L
L.L.L
L L L
L,L,L

...
...
..,

-2.1
0.1

-3.8
-2.8
-4.4

91
92
93

-1.4

0.5

-2.7
-0.8
-1.5
-0.5

-3.5
-2.3
-3.0
MA
-0.9

91
91
91
91
91

-5.4
-0.2
MA
-2.2
NA
KA

-1.0
-0.1
-0.1
-8.2
-0.2
0.1

-1.3
-0.4
-0.3
-23. M
-0.8
-0.3

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
8 1 . Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
• 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
21. Avg. weedy overtime, prod, workers, mfg.3 . .
2. Aecessior rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2
*S. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted4}
3. Layoff rase, per 100 employ., mfg. (inv. 4 ) 2 . .
4. Quit rate, per 100 employees, mfg.3

UCL
L,L,L
L.C.L
L.L.L
ULg.U

Hours
do. . . .
Percent
Thousands. .
Percent
do. . . .

Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help wanted advertising to persons
unemployed2
46, Help-wanted advertising

L,Lg,U
Ug,U

Ratio
1967=100

U,C,C
U,C,C

A.r., bil.hrs..
Thousands. .
do. . . .
do. . . .

Comprohensive Employment;
48. Employee hours in nonagri. establishments..,
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
*41 i'mployssE; on nonagri payrolls...
40. Employees in mfg,, mining, construction
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of winking age3

ccc
L.CU

Percent

0.339 -0.024
106
-1 8

0.
-0.001 •0.079
-0.8
-6 8
-2 .8

2

4

U,Lg,U

Comprehensive Unemployment:
37 Total unemployed (inverted4)
L,lg,U Thousands..
43. Unomployrnont rato, total ^inverted 4 ) 2
Percent
L,Lg,U
46. Avg. weekly insured unemploy.rats (inv. 4 ) 2 . . L LgU . .
.do. . . .
• 9 1 . Avg. duration of unemployment {inverted 4 ).. Lg.Lg.Lg Weeks
4 2
44. Unemploy. rote, 1§ weeks and ove? (inv. ) . . Lg.Lg.Lg Percent

«>

B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
"ifl RMP in 1Q7? fintlar';
52. Personal incame in 1972 dollars
• 5 1 . Pers. income1 less transfer pay., 1972 dollars . .
63. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction, 1972 dollars
ndustrial Production:
*47. Industrial production, total
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs.
49. Vaiue of good:} output, 1972 dollars
Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB*
83. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., SEA2
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRB3

CCC

ccc

A r hil rint
do. . . .
do. . . .

CCC

do. . . .

231.1

230.9

232.0

231.1

227.1

227.5

2'24.8

223.2

-1.2

-0.7

-0.4

-1.7

1967-100...
do. . . .
do. . . .

147.0
136.7
161.2
665.2

151.0
140.5
164.8
685.2

152.5
143.1
166.0
686. 3

153.0
142.6
166.8
691.9

146.3
134.4
160.3
673.7

146.4
134.5
160.6

143.4
131.0
157.6

139.1
126.0
153.2

-2.0
-2.6
-1.9

-3.0
-•3.8
-2.8

0.3
-0.3
0.5
0.8

-4.4
-5.8
-3.9
-2.6

79.1
78
80.0

78.4
NA
80.0

79.8
78
81.2

79.3
76
8*1.1

74.8
NA
7!i. 3

-0.5
-2
-0.1

-4.5
NA
-5.8

-0.1
-1.7
-3.1
0.38
0.9
-6

-9.8
-11.0
-9.5
-3.6 2
- 2 .5
-13
-2.6
-3.3
-3.4
-1.4
-2.8
-9.5
-12.2 |

C.C.C

cce
ccc
C.L.L
CCC

L,C,U

A ,

hjl ,1(11

—

L,C,U

Percent
do. . . .
do. . . .

Orders and Deliveries:
6. New orders, durable goods
7. New orders, double goods, 1972 dollars
•8. New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 dol. .
25. Chg, in unfilled orders, durable goods3
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32 Vendor performance2 <§)

L.L.L
L,L,L
L.L.L.
LL.L
L,Lg,U
L,L,L

Bil.dol
do. . . .
do. . . .
do. . . .
Bil.dol., EOP
Percent. ,

79.32 85.07 87.88 87.78 79.17 79.96 79.76 78.54
38.30 38.24 39.74 39.06 34.77 35.07 34.92 34.34
33.73 34.03 35.61 34.51 31.22 30.94 31.06 29.15
0.62
0.30
1.26
0.07
1.00 - 2 . 6 2 - 1 . 6 9 - 1 . 3 8
308.82 309.61 314.48 317.46 309.61 311.00 309.61 309.91
52
40
33
32
32
45
46
30

CCC
C,C,C

Bil.dol
do. . . .
1967=100...
Mil. dol
do. . . .
A.r., bil. dol.
1Q1966=100

320.11
154.63
145.4
79,721
43,656
61.8
64.4

1967H00...
Number. . . .

121.1
44,293

0.

51
5

4
7
41

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and
Deliveries

Consumption and Trade:
56 Manufacturing and trade sales
•67. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars . .
75. Industrial production, consumer goods . . . . . .
54. Sales of retail stores
69 Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars
65. Personal consuoption expend,, autos
58 Index of consumer sentiment <§)

cue
CL,U
LC.C

351.54
157.68
150.0
86,247
44,259
63.3
73.9

-0.3
-0.4
0.4
0.31
-0.4
-2

-1.5
-i.7

NA
343.28
NA
150.99
142.3 138.1
87,060 86,119
4 3,2 27 42,697

-0.6
-0.5
-1.3
-0.2
-0.3

NA
NA
-3.0
-1.1
-1.2

1*68
0.1
2

353.75
156.59
149.4
88,213
44,492
70.2
74.8

344.59
151.48
144.3
86,931
4 3,267
63 ,5
6 5..7

345.21
151.68
14 4.2
87,222
43,351
62.5

64.3

71.6

2.9

10.4

0.6
-0.7
-0.4
2.3
0.5
10.9
1.2

v NA 116.0 112.2
* NA 49,194 48,828

MA
KA

108.2
49,513

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

-3.3
-0.7

349.91
156.17
148.0
87,126
44,264
68.2
70.7

t
i
2!
9(

Hi
5*
11

(i t

B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12 Net business formation
13 New business incorporations




L,L,L
L.L.L

NA
NA

L.

r

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Series title

Timing
classifi-

Unit
of

Percent change

Averatp
2dQ
1981
1980

30Q
1981

4th Q
1981

Nov.
1981

Dec.
1981

1981

Jan.
1982

Nov.
to
Dec.
1981

Dec.
to
Jan.
1982

2dQ
to
3dQ
1981

3dQ
to
4th Q
1981

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B4. Fixed Capital In vestment-Con.
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment ..
*20. Contr. and orders, plant and equip.,
1972 dol
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense ..
27. New orders/ capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
11. New capital appropriations, mfg
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Business expend., new plant and equipment .
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76, Industrial production, business equip
86. Nonresid, fixed investment, total, 1972 dol. .
Residential Construction Commitments and
Investment:
28. New private housing units started, total
*29. New building permits, private housing ..
89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dol.

L,LL

Bil.dol

25.68

27.24

27.81

27.40

26.36

27.161

27.20

26.83

0.1

-1.4

-3.8

10

13.78
23.46

13.92
23.94

13.87
23.99

13.49
22.44

14.16
23.81

14.11
22.52

13.06
22.23

-0.4
-5.4

-7.4
-1.3

-0.4
0.2

-2.7
-6.5

20
24

i

L,L,L
L,L,L

..do. . . .
..do.

13.80
22.55

L,L,L

..do.

12.37

12.14

12.23

12.39

11.82

12.73!

12.14

11.12

-4.6

-8.4

1.3

-4.6

77.81
25.90
90.73

77.72

81.80
28.44
96.56

73.42
26.84
96.26

71.89
NA
NA

70.7

70.65

56.29

-0.2

-20.3

-10.2
-5.6
-0.3

-2.1
NA
NA

3.6

1.2

61

I. sq.ft. ..
L,C,U
U,Lg,U Bil. dol
CLg,Lg Bil.dol., EOP

NA
NA

CLg,Lg A.r.,bil.dol.

295.63 322.61 316.7 3 3 2 8 . 2 5 332.06

do. . . .
CLg.Lg
C,Lg,U 1967=100...
C,Lg,C A.r.,bil. dol.

310.98 338.61 338.30 344.11 342.69 346.0
173.2
180.
182.2 184.0 178.7 178.
158.4
161.1 163.9 161.7
162.2

L,L,L
IXX
IXX

A.r., thous. .
1967=100...
A.r., bil. dol.

IXX

..do.

1,292
96.6
48.1

1,087
78.8
45.2

1,173
89.3
47.8

962
70.8
42.7

871
60.1
39.3

se'o
58.(4

9
11
97

347.99
177.0

NA
172.9

0.6
-0.9

NA
-2.3

1.7
1.0
1.7

-0.4
-2.9
-1.3

69
76
86

899
63.7

894
67.2

4.5
9.1

-0.6
5.5

-18.0
-20.7
-10.7

-9.5
-15.1
-8.0

28
29
89

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30, Chg. in business inventories, 1972 dol. 2
*36. Change in inventories on hand and on order,
1972 dollars (smoothed6)2
31. Chg. in book value, mfg. and trade invent.2 .
38. Chg. in mtl. stocks on hand and on order2 ..
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, total 5
*70. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 1972 dol. 5 . . . .
65. Mfrs,' inventories of finished goods5
77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade,
constant dollars2
78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and on
order5

IXX
IXX
IXX

do.
do.
Bil.dol. .

Lg,Lg,Lgi Bil.dol., EOP
do. . . .
Lg,Lg,Lg
do. . . .
Lg,Lg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg Ratio
LLg,Lg Bil.dol., EOP

-2.9

7.6

10.8

14.9

6.2

4.1

-8.7

30

-9.60
31.0
0.38

1.76
37.9
0.10

2.20
35.0
0.91

9.77
55.6
0.83

2.62
19.8
-1.79

-1.00
-25.0
-1.00

NA
NA
NA

-4.49
-66.8
0.76

NA
NA
NA

7.57
20.6
-0.08

7.15
-35.8
2.62

36
31
38

475.20 513.08 494.23 508.13 513.08
262.97 269.36 265.40 268.53 269.36

513.08
269.36

NA
NA
NA

-0.4
-0.4
-1.5

NA
NA
NA

2.8
1.2
3.2

1.0
0.3
0.1

71
70
65

76.56

83.85

81.21

83.78

83.85

83.85

1.71

1.70

1.68

1.71

1.78

1.78

0.

NA

0.03

0.07

77

-0.5

NA

1.1

-2.4

78

-0.50
263.4

-0.09
-2.3

-0.15
-0.3

-1.35
-0.7

-0.81
-5.5

92
23

118.78 128.04 132.81 125.68 122.17 122J92 123.79 117.28

0.7

-5.3

-2.8

19

218.24 219.41 222.26
224.77 219.41

219.41

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*92. Chg. in sensitive prices (smoothed6)2 .
23. Spot marktt prats, raw industrials ( § ) . .

L,L,L
U,L,L

Percent
1967=100...

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices,*500 common stocks®..

UL,L

194143=10.

Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Corp. profits after taxes, 1972 dollars
79. Corp. profits after tains with IVA and CCAdj .
80
do
in 1972 dol..
15. Profits {after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 .
26. Ratio, prica to unit liibor cost, nonfarm bus . . .

L,L,L
L,L,L
L,C,L
L,C,L
L,L,L
L,L,L

A.r., bil.dol.
do. ..
do. . . .
do. . . .
Cents
1977=100..

163.2
88.8
100.3
55.1
4.9
96.3

155.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
96.6

152.7
77.4
113.9
58
5.1
96.9

156
76
117.6
58.9
4.
96.8

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
95.6

2.4
-1.2
3.2
1.2
-0.3
-0.1

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-1.2

16
18
79
80
15
26

Cash Flows:
34. Net cash flow, corporate
35. Net cash flow, corporate. 1972 dollars

L,L,L
L,L,L

A.r., bil. dol.
do. . .

265.4
141.8

NA
NA

270.5
134.6

279.2
136.4

NA
NA

3.2
1.3

NA
NA

34
35

Lg,Lg,Lg 1977=100..

132.4

144.1

141.6

145.2

150.0

3.3

63

Dollars
Lg.Lg.Lg 1967=100...

1.196
195.0

1.285
211.0

1.266
207.6

1.295
211.3

NA
221.0

2.3
1.8

NA
4.6

68
62

75.5

7 5.3

-0.2

NA

64

0.32
0.77
0.87
200,8

0.74
0.82
0.88
194.5
804.6

3.81
1.13
3.88
184.2
805.5

1.03
0.70
0.85
195.5
808.0

1.75
0.96
0.82
198.3
813.4

-0.10
-0.06
0.12
-2.7
-0.7

0.52
0.11
-0.11
-0.5
0.3

85
102
104
105
106

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, private business sector
68. Labor cost (cur. dot.) per unit of gross
domestic product (1972), nonfin. corp. ..
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, rafg
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income3

1.49
298.0

1.28
283.4

7 5.3

Lg,Lg,Lg Percent

1.95
288.3

0.60
286.4

-0.21
270.6

-0J26
27Q.5

-0.35
264.2

223.8

230.3

1.2

2.9

87. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply (Ml) 2 ..
102. Change in money supply (M2)3
*J04. Chg. in total liquid assets (smoothed6)2 . . .
105. Money supply (Ml), 1972 dollars
•106. Money supply <M2), 1972 dollars

L,L,L
L,C,U
UUL
L,L,L
L,L,L

Percent.
do.
do.
Bil. dol. .
do.

0.52
0.76
0.77
204,2
812.3

0.93
197.6
803.6

808.1

0.22
0.71
0.99
195.4
802.1

Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNPto money supply (Ml) 2
108. Ratio, pers. income to money supply (M2)2

C.C.C
CL fl ,C

Ratio

6.521
1.347

6.808
1.376

6.706
1.368

6.886
1.381

6.859
1.376

.377

1.367

1.356 -0.010 -0.011

0.180 0.027
0.013 -0.005

107
108

Credit Flows:
33. Change in mortgage debt2
112. Change in business loans2
113. Clungi in consumirinsfellinant credit2
110. Total private borrowing

U.L
L,L,L
UL,L
L.L.L

A.r., bil.
.....do.
do.
do.

NA 48.95 37.79
19.63
36.62
30.79
20.40 22.4 3 30.53
NA 349.24 317.69

NA
17.69
4.73
NA

4.48
3.32
4.10

NA
26.14
-2.08

NA
43.86
NA

NA
17.72
NA

NA
11.16
-5.83 -13.10
8.10 25.80
NA
-9.0

33
112
113
110




do. ..
dol.
..
..
..

61.10
17.21
2.90
292.75

0.52
0.80

0.22
-0.43
-0.03
0.7
0.3

NA
12.82
-6.18

0.72
0.26
-0.03
1.4
0.7

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data'
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Timing
classification3

Percent change

Average
1980

Nov.

2dQ

3dQ

1981

1981

1931

4th Q
1981

Nov.
1981

Oec.
1981

Jan.
1982

Doe.

to
Dee,
1981

to

J.ist

1932

2d Q

to
3dQ
1981

ad Q
to
4ihQ
1981

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7. Money and Credit-Con.
Credit Difficulties.
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.*K§)
39. Delinquency ratii, instal. loans {inv.4)3 * ...

L.L.L

93. Free reserves(inverted4)3®
94. Borrowing from the Federal F t a ™ 3 ( u ) , , . .

L.U.U

Mil.dol
Percent, EOP

1

Percent. .
do.
do.
do.
Lg.Lg.U
do.
U,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,l,g . . . . .do.
.....do.

Outstanding Dttbt;
66. Consumer instullmcnt credits
•72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly repottinq liirge comm. banks
•95. Ratio, consumer install, credit to pi»rs. income2

i-Q.Lg.Lg Bil.dol.
•-9.Lg.Lg Percent.

NA
2.37

-1,141 -1,052
1,362
1 , 4 20

Mil.dol, .
do.

lot0rest Rotes.
119. Federal funds rats 3 ®
114, Treasury bill r a t e 3 © . . .
111). Treasury bond yields 2 @
,«
116, Corporate bond yields 2 ®
3
117, Municipal bond yields ®
118, Mortgage yields, residential3®
07. Bank rat (is on short-term bus. loans 2 ®
*109. Averap primo ran charged by banks 2 ®..,.

386.26
2.57

13.36
11.61
10.81
12.77
1
0.60
13.42
15.17
15.27

C.Lg.Lg

•

16.38
14.00
12.87
15.48
11.33
16.31
1 9 . 56
18.87

NA

NA
2.28

NA
2.3?

NA
2.4 2

NA
2.37

NA
NA

0.0 5

-1,591 -1,193
1,845
1,544

-55 2
82 J

-3U0

-243 - 1 , 4 2 5
642
1 , 5 26

13.22
12.41
13.13
16.37
13.28
17.38

404.54
2.30

17.78
14.0 3
12.66
15.22
10.69
16.18
19.99
18.93

17.58
15.09
13.60
16.33
12.11
17.76
21.11
20.32

13.54
12.02
13.21
16.0.:.
12.54
16.61
17 t2:<
17.01

695

13.31
11.27
12.68
15.5 3
11.89
15,9 8

12.37
10.93
12.8 8
15.55
12.91
16.43

NA
NA

NA
0.0 2

-137
= 53

I, .183

-393
-30 1

-0,94
-0.34
0.20
0.0 2
1.0 2
0.4 5

o.ai*
1.48
0 . il !>
0 . ti 2
0 . VI
O.<)5

U(J4

15.75

15.7 5

-1.09

•fl.L9.Lg Bil.doL.EGP j 3 0 6 . 4 7 3 2 6 . 0 7 318.05 3 2 5 . 6 9 326. 87 327.04 326.87

NA

-0.1

NA

> 1 6 4 . 5 1 18 2 . 2 6 178.02 1 8 6 . 6 3 191.29 1 9 0 . 9 4 193.12 196.77
NA
14.14
13.27
13.35
13.22
13.15
13.12
13.12

1.1
0.

1.9

16.04

0.

-0.20
0.2fc
0. y 4

L i t
1.4a
l.'iU
1 . 1 ii

1.31*
;*.4

MA

•4

"0,09

-i»4t

- 3 . vj y
- '3 . U 7
-0.37
-I). 3 2
0 .4 J
-1.1'J

1 U
lib
il i
LUi

- i .HU
-3. H
0.4

66
711,

-0. u

-0.07

?>. 4

2.2
1.4
-0.6
1.0

II, OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
B, Prices, Wages and Productivity
B1. Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
331.
332.
333.
334.

Implicit yriKMlellaiitr.GNP
Consumer prices (CPI). all i t e m s ® . . . . . . . .
Channt) in CPI. all items, S/Aa
CPI, food

1072-100.,
1967=100..
Percent. . . ,
1967-100.,

Producer prices (PPI), all commodities (u)
PPI. crude materials
PPI, intermediate materials
PPL capital equipmer t
PPI, finished consume goods

.....do,
do.
do.
do.
do.

'i vo

177.4
246.3
1.0
254.6

193.7
272.4
0.7
27 4 . 6

191.1
269.0
0.6
272.7

19 5.6
276.7
1.0
276.6

200.0
280.7
0.4
279.3

280.7
0.5
279.3

281.5
0.4
279.5

28 2.5
0.3
281.5

0.3
-0.1
0.1

0.-1
-0..1
0.7

0.4
1.4

.,
.,
.
.
.

2 68.8
304.6
2B0.3
239.8
248.9

293.4
329.1
306.0
264.3
271.2

294.1
334.6
305.6
262.1
271.0

29 6 . 1
333.5
309.2
266.9
273.4

293. a
3la. 4
310. 1 )
27 2 . 3
27S.S

29 5 . 5
318.2
310.6
272.5
276.1

295.9
313.8
311.3
274.1
27 6.6

296.2
319.2
312.4
275.2
277.9

0.1
-1.4
0.2
0.6
0.2

o.u

0.7

1977=100..

127.3

138.9

137.6

140.4

14 2.8

14 3.2

14 3.3

14 4.3

0.1

1.0

'A. 0

l.V

J4U

do.
do.
do.
. . . . .do.

93.5
130.5
96.0
99.3

92.6
143.6
95.7
100.4

93.0
142.0
96.0
101.2

92.3
145.4
95.6
100.9

92.2
147.7
95. 3
9 9.0

92.5

9 2.1

9 2.9

-0.4

t). y

= 0.8
'?:. 4
-;!. 4

-0, 1
I . fi
- 0. i
-1.9

110

O.'i

4.U

2.§

1. V
0 . h

0.4
0 . V5

1.2
L.ii
0.9

i 'A A

-0. I
- 4 . !»
0.4
2.1)

0.M

B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Avenifje hourly sarn rgs, production workers,
private nonfann oeanomy
341. Real averse houf ly ^irniiujs, production
workers, private notifarm economy
34b. A vertigo hourly comiifmsatton, nonfarm bus..
340, Real avg, hourly con|)., nonfarm business ..
370. Output pur hour, private business sector

..
..
..
..

-0.'}

C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
44[i.
446.
l.dljor
461.
4b^.
4B3.

Total eivilkin labor ferae
,.,...
Total eivilinn omployfrient
Number of persons unemployed
UnernployiifJ males, 20 years and over
UnoniploytHJ females, 2Q years and over . . .
UfifmiployKd jjorsons, 16-19 years of asjo...
r:meo I'yrtieiitiition Rtfis*
Mo las, ?JQ yoors and w)(z
Fomalus, 2Q yesirs ai)i) uvisr2
Both SHX«S. IB-IB yturs of ^

Millions . . .
do. . .

Thousands.
do. ..
do. ..
do. ..
l

1 0 6 . 9 4 1 0 0 . 6 7 108.83 1 0 0 . 6 7 109.16 1 0 9 . 2 7 109.18 108.88
9 9 . 3 0 1 0 0 . 4 0 100.78 1 0 0 . 6 5 1 0 0 . 0 4 1 0 0 . 1 7
99.61
99.58
7,637
8,273
8,050
3,013
9,113
9,100
9,571
9,290
3,353
3,615
3,476
3,442
4,166
4,105
4,543
4 , 3 22
2,615
2,895
2,830
2,872
3,100
3,109
3,17 5 3,104
1,669
1,763
1,744
1,699
1,84?
1,886
1,853
1,872

ert;ent. . . .
. . . .do. .
....do. ..

79.4
51.3
56.7

79.0
52.1
55.4

79.2
52.3
5 5.8

78.9
52.1
54.9

A.r., bil.dol.
. .do. ..
do. ..
. .do. ..
do. ..
do. ..

540 . 8
6 0 2.0
-61.2
384 . 0
355.0
29.1

625 .3
688.3
-62.5
417.1
380.4
36.6

621.0
668.2
-47.2
413.6
377.5
36.1

638 . 3
694.0
-55.7
419 . 6
301.8
37.3

78.9
5 2.3
54.6

7B.B
52.4
5 5.0

79.0
52.2
54.0

7U.5
52.1
5 4.2

-0.1
-0.6
•5.2
10.7
2. I
-1.7

-0.3
0.
-2.U
-- 4 . 9
-t.t
1.0

0.2
-0.2
-1.0

-O.'J

-0.1
-«. I
- 0. s
-1.0
t . 'j
—A * b

-0.6
13.7
21.0
7.9
U.I

-U.l
- 0 . "A

0.

-0.1

D.2

- u*y

-0.J

o.<i

D, Govern mom: Activities
D1. Receiptsund Expenditures
501.
002.
500.
511.
512,
610.

Federal Government receipts
,
Fodorul Government expenditures
Fedmal Gcminnnent surplus oc deficit2
State and local govarnrmni receipts
..
State mid local govarnmunt expenditures . . .
State and local govt. surplus or deficit2

7.8

NA

727.1

NA
4 . tl
NA
NA

NA
NA

- B . *}

387.6

1.1
1.1

l.fi

NA
NA
3.9

10. *
17.1
7A . i
4 . 0)

-4.U
-15.7
- 1 7 . '*
L0 . 4

NA
Uh
NA

-l.n
- 6. a
19.;!
-1. S
~ll.fi
1.4

-1.7
ii. f>
-17.1
l.l

NA

NA

D2. Defense Indicators
817.
b25.
048.
S64.

Dettmso Dopartmem otl gations
Military prima contract (wards
New orders, defense products
National defense purchases

dol....
..do. ..
..do. ...
A.r., bit. dol.

13,392 1 5 , 9 4 5 1 5 , 3 5 5 1 6 , 9 3 1 16,124 15,674
6,754
8,065
7,838
9,225 7 , 7 7 7
9,817
4,662
5,204
4,772
5,9 32 4 , 9 0 5
4,850
131.7
154.4
148.2
154, 1 1 7 0 . 1

Mil.dol.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.

1U,39O 1 9 , 4 6 1 19,519 19,323 18,994 1 9 t 1 1 8 1 8 , 8 2 1
3,435
3,600
3,523
3,285
3,466
3, 442 3,220
3,788
4,456
4,286
5,111
4,236
4,366
4,005
2 0 , 4 1 7 2 1 , 7 9 0 2 1 , 8 5 8 2 1 , 5 2 1 2 1 , 7 5 7 22,5 22 19,516
6,139
6,319
6,590
5,815
5,747
6,48 3 4,636
2,030
2,190
2,199
2,229
2,289
2,239
2,164

19,005
9,049
6,034

NA

NA
7,475

26.4
-7.8
24.4

2

E. U.S. International Transactions
E l . Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612,
614,
610.

Exports, total sxcept military aid
Exports ef agricultural products . . . . . . . . . .
Exports of nonolectncal machinery
,
Reneriil imports, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Imports of automobiles aid parts




NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

-1.6
-6.4
-8.3
-13! 3
-20.5
-3.3

Nrt
NA

NA

2.7

b02
6 04
hV2
614
616

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
Series title

Unit
of
measure

to

3d Q
to

1981

3dQ
1981

4th Q
1981

-1.0
2.5
-2,233
3.9
9.2
0.7
3.1
-2,130

-4.0
-3.4
-132
5.4
3.3
-0.9
-2.3
1,334

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

61U
6 20
622
651
652
660
6 69
667

14 97.6
2995.3
1491.4
2087.
1047.3
6,49 0
4,5 39

-0.4
1.1
-1.2
1.9
0.3
-0.6
0.1

0.4
2.7

0.4

-1.2
1.0
-0.6
2.2
0.4
-l.S
0.1

50
200
213
2 24
2 2'3
217
227

955.1 962.8 957 .2
930.9 935.1 958.8 930.8 946.8 960
137.4 140.3 133.2
146.6 135.8 139.4 132.6 139.1 146
354.6 358.4 367.1 354.9 360.4 364.5 367.0 3GB.8 36U.2
429.6 440.9 452.3 443.3 447 .3 440.9 450.7 453.7 455
1682.2 1751.0 .1810.1 1829.1 1883.9 1908
1510.9 1672.8 1857
223.3 238.3 227.3 236.2 2 26.8
212.3 211.9 232.1 208
602.2 675.7 743.0 674.2 703.5 726.0 735.3 751.3 7 59.3
696.3 785.2 882.7 799.2 824.2 845.8 866.5 896.4 9 22.2

-0.5
-6.4
0.7
0.4
1.0
-4.6
1.3
2.4

3.9
2.2
3.5

-5.1
-0.2
0.5
1.3
-4.0
1.1
2,9

231
233
230
239
230
23 2
2 36
237

Average

3dQ

4th Q

1st Q
1981

|2dQ
1981

1981

3dQ
1981

4th Q
1981

1st Q
to
2dQ

2dQ

II. O T H E R I M P O R T A N T E C O N O M I C
MEASURES-Con,
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
618.
620.
622.
651.
652.
668.
669.
667.

Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Merchandise trade balance2
Income on U.S. investments abroad
income on foreign investment in the U.S.
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on goods and services2

46,118
5 2,95 5
-6,836
16,675
,310
72,232

55,992
6 2,327
-6,335
18,985
10,794
86,168
7 0 , 4 8 0 83,472
1,752 2,696

Mil.rJol.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
, .do.

56,252
59,154
-2,902
13,850
10,697
NA 06,655
80,177
6,478

57,149
62,719
-5,570
19,764
11,507
88,636
84,902
3,734

098
775
677
566
513
431
641
7 90

60,477
6i7,387
-6,910
2)2,399
lj3 , 6 6 6
95,08 3
9b,423
2,660

58,037
65,079
-7,042
23,610
14,120
94,250
90,256
3,994

1510.1 1471.9
2637.3
1502.4 1476.9
2015-8 1840.6
1040.3 1018.5
6,569 6,456
4,525 4,468

1485.6
2730.6
1492.7
1897.0
1025 .8
6,499
4,488

1516.4
2053.0
1517.8
19 47
1033
6,620
4,511

L510.4
2835.8
L499.6
L985.6
L036.8
6,580
4 517

1515.8
2965.0
1500.9
20 4 2.0
1043.6
6,586
4,535

A. National Income and Product
A 1 . G N P a n d Personal Income
50.
200.
213.
224.
225.
217.
227.

GNP in 1972 dollars
GNP in current dollars
Final sales, 1972 dollars
Disposable persona) income, current dollars . ,
Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars
Per capita disposable pers. income, 1972 dol.,

A.r., bil.dol,
do..
do. .
do. .

do. .
A.r., dollars.
do. .

1483.0
2413.9
1472.9
1641.7
1011.5,
6,538
4,493

1480.7
2626.1
1483.6
18 21.7
1018 .4
6,504
4,473

2924.8

A 2 . Personal Consumption Expenditures
231.
233.
238.
239.
230,
232,
236.
237.

Total, 1972 dollars
Durable goods, 1972 dollars
Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars .
Services, 1972 dollars
Total, current dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars.
Services, current dollars

A.r., bil.dol.

do. .
do. .
do..

do. .
do. .
do. .
do. ,

A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
241.
243.
30.
240.
242,
245.

Total, 1972 dollars
Total fixed investment, 1972 dollars
Change in business inventories, 1972 dol. 2
Total, current dollars
Total fixed investment, current dollars . . .
d i g . in bus. inventories, current dol. 2 . . . .

. .do. .
..do..
. .do. .
..do..
. .do. .
..do. .

232.6
2 22.5
10.21
415.8 1
398.3
17.5

203.6
206.6
-2.9
395.3
401.2
-5.9

215.0
207.4
7.6
450.7
433.7
17.0

195,
200,
-5.
377.
393.
-16.0

200.5
207.6
-7.2
397.7
415.1
-17.4

211.6
213.1
-1
437.1
432.7
4.5!

219.7
208.9
10.8
458.6
435.3
23.3

221.5
206.5
14.9
463.0
435.6
27.5

207 .2
201.0
6.2
443.9
431
12.6

3
-2
12.2
4.9
0.6
13.8

0.8
-1.1
4.1
1.0
0.1
4.2

-6.5
-2.7
-0,7
-4.1
-1.0
-14.9

241
24 3
30
2 40
24 2
245

do. .
do. .

281.8
101.7
180.ll
473.8
167.9
305.9

290.0
.108.1
131.9
534.7
198.9
335.8

291.3
111.6
100
591.3
230.3
361.0

288.2
106.9
181.3
533.5
194.9
330.6

289.8
107.4
182.4
5 58.6
212.0
346.6

11.1.:
182 .
576.
221.'
354.1

289.5
108.7
180,7
577.4
219.5
357.9

200.3
109.6
178.8
588.9
226 .4
362.5

295.6
116.9
173 .8
622.2
253.6
368.6

-1.4
-2.2
-1.0
0.2
-0.9
0.0

-0.4
0.0
-1.1
2.0
3.1
1.3

2.5
6.7
0.
5 .7
12.0
1.7

261
263
267
260
262
266

146,
109-

161.1
109.1
52.0
339.8
316.5
23.3

159
115
44
365.6
340
25.0

160.5
102.
57.6
342.4
297.9
44.5

157,
108,
48,
346,
322,
23.3

16 2.(5
111.16
50.
367.
338.
29.1

161.5
115.4
46.2
368.2
347 .5
20.8

160.1
116.9

154.2
116.7
37
358.9
338
20.8

-0.6
3.4
-4.7
0.2
2.7
-8.4

-3.0
-0.1
-2.5
0.5

-3.7
-0.2
-5.7
-2.5
-0.1
-8.5

25 6
257
25 5
25 2
253
250

NA
2122.4 2204.8 2291(1 2320, 2377.6
1963.3 2121.4 2346
1460.9 1596.5 17 71.5 1597.4 1661.8 1722^4 1752,
1790.7 1S20.9
129.7
134,
134.0 132
131.6 130.6 134.6
137.1 135.2
190,
NA
183.3 203
195.7
196.8 182.7 191
3 2 f. 7
33,
33
32.4
34.5
31.8
30.5
33.9
193.3
20Of.
8
228.0
179.8
215.0
143.4
211.0 2 20.2
185.3

1.3
1.7
1.5
-6.3
1.8
5.1

2.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
1.8
4.4

NA
1.7
-1.4
NA
1.8
3.5

2 20
280
28 2
286
284
288

5.1
1.8
19.9
-1.5
0.8

0.9
2.9
0.3
-6.7
-0.2

NA
NA
10.5
NA
0.9

290
295
29 2
298

A 4 . Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
261.
263.
267.
260.
262.
266.

Total, 1972 dollars
Federal Government, 1972 dollars
State and local governments, 1972 d o l l a r s . . . .
Total, current dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
State and local governments, current dollars . .

256.
257.
255.
252.
253.
250.

Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . .
Imports of goodsand services, 1972 dollars . .
Net exports of goods and ssrv., 1972 dol. 2 . . .
Exports of goods and services, current dol. . . .
Imports of goods and services, current dol. . . .
Net exports of goods and sen/., current dol. 2 .

do.
do.
do.
do.

.
.
.
.

A 5 . Foreign Trade

do.
do.
do.
do.

37.7
281.3
267.9

do.

13.4

do.

43.2
368.0
338.7

29.3

A 6 . National Income and Its Components
220.
280.
282.
286.
284,
288.

National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj . .
Rental income of persons with CCAdj . .
Net interest

290.
295.
292.
298.
293,

Gross saving (private and govt.) . . ,
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit 2 . . .
Personal saving rate2

..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.

A 7 . Saving
do.

do.
do.
..do.

Percent .

411.9
312.7
86.2
11.9
5.2

401.9
331.6
101.3
-32.1
5.6

454.9
NA

107.3
-25.9
5.3

402.0
334.6
111.4
-45.6
6.1

406.7
339.3
97.6
-30.0
5.1

465.3
368.7
106.6
-11.2
5.4

469.4
379.3
106.9
-17.9
5.2

NA
HA
126.7
NA
6.1

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tor those indicated b y ® , which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an aster sk {*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles {including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see 'Titles and Soukes of Series" at the back of BCD. NA = not available. 3 = anticipated.
EOP = end of period. A.r. - annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA = inventory valuation adjustment. CCA = capital consumption adjustment. NIA = national income accounts.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
2
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
J
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L = leading; C s roughly coincidenjt; Lg = lagging; U = unclassified.
* Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
s
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed at the terminal month of the span.




CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart A l . Composite Indexes
(Nov.)(Oct.)
P
T

(July)(May)

PI

(Aug.)(Apr.)

(Apr.)(Feb.)

P T

P T

(Dec.)(Nov.)
P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T

Index: 1967-100
160«
15C«

-15

910. Index of hifelve leading indicators
: (series 1, % 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104,106)

-9i

=¥c

^

^fi

920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators
(series 41, 47, 51, 57)

—=4-

-4

z

JL
rrs
x
^

120-

, , _

i

fi

130. Index of six lagging indicators
(series 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, 109)

+2

NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags {+) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for theso series are shown on page 60.

10



FEBRUARY 1982

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued
(Nov.)(Oct.)
P T

(July)(May)
P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T

(Dec.)(Nov.)
P T

(Apr.)(Feb.)
P T

913, Marginal smplbymeni Adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5)

(Nov.) ((War.)

PI

(Jan.)(July)

P T

Index: 1967-100

Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20,

915. Inventory investment and

ing (series 8, 32, 36, 92)

,

-3 916. Profitability (series 19, 26, 80)

917. Money and financial flows (series 104, 106, 110)

~

940. l Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

V

Yv/V/

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 99 56 97 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 7§ 7S 77 78 79 80 81 821983
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

BCII

FEBRUARY 1982




11

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components
(Nov.XOct.)
PI

:

£Ju!y)£!¥!ay)
PT

j!

(Aug.)(Apr.)
PT

(Apr.XFeb.)
P T

(DecXNov.)
P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T

(Jan.)(July)
PT

1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hotiri)

initial claims £tatA iinpmnlrtvrnunt i

(thousands—inverted scale)

8. New orders for consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars
(bil. dol.)

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower
deliveries (percent)

12, Net business formation (index: 1967-ICO)

20. Contracts and Orders for plant and equipment,

1948 49 50 Bl !>2 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 821983
Current data for these scries are shown on pages 61, 64, 65, and 66.

12



FEBRUARY 1982

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
(Nov.)(Oct.)
P T

(Juiy)(Wlay)
P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T

(Apr.XFeb.)
P T

(Dec.)(Nov.)
P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
I

(Jan.)(July)
P T

29.1 New btiildirt£ permits, private housing units (index: 1967^1j00)

36. N 4 change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars, smo^hed 1 (ann.

92. Change in sensitive crude

prices, smoothed1 (percent) \£

Change in total liquid assets, smoothed1 (percent) I L L L

19. Stock prices, 500 ci
(index: §1941-43

supply—M2—in 1972 dollars (bit. dpi.)

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 711 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 821983
l

This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, and 71.

ltd)

FEBRUARY 1982




13

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
<Nov.)(Oct.)
P
T

(JulyXMay)
P 1

(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T

(Apr.)(Feb.)
P T

(DecXNov.)

FT

(Jan.)(ilMly)
P I

(Nov.) (Mar.)

P

T

41. employees on nonagricuitural payrolls ( t f o n s )

51. Personal income less transfer payments.
1972 dollars (inn. rate, bil.

47. Industrial production, total ( i n d e x y j f 7 - 1 0 0 L V \

57. Manufacturing and trade sales. _ «
1972 dollars (bil. dpi.) ' J^*\

1048 49 5(9 51 32 §3 94 85 S6 §7 S8 99 SO 61 02 S3

\/

\

_f

r

\ J

78 79 SO Bl

821983

Current data for these fteries are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

14



FEBRUARY 1982

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
(Nov.XOct)
P T

(July){May)
P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)

(Apr.)(Feb.)

P T

P T

(Dec.)(Nov.)
P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T

(Jan.)(July)
PT

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)

trade inventories, 1972 dollars (b

62. Labor coist per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 196|»100)

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

Lglgl

72. Commercial and i
reporting large c

loans outstanding, weekly
banks (bil. dot.)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent)

1948 49 50 9IL 52 S3 54

55 56 57 58 59 6© 61

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

FEBRUARY 1982



15

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
(Aug.) (Apr.)

(Dec) (Now.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

PI

P

T

(Nov.)
P

(fan.) U)
PT

(Mar.)
T

[Marginal Employment 1 Adjustments|
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

21. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

2. Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)

5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands—inverted scale)
:i

EH]

•; i!

\\\\

H

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 1(W employees—inverted scate) |L,L,L|

4. Quit rate, manufacturing ( p r 100 employees)

tufcu]

il.i; .-

1956 57

..;i i" i\.

m

59

60

.

SI

62

63

64

..

.

6S

. . •

66

J....../L

67

...

68

-

:: J U I J U L

69

70

• . ;

71

.•

72

.•

73

J\\\.

.hJlJL,

74

79

76

77

7S

80

SI

Current data for those series are shown on page 61.

16



FEBRUARY 1982

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
1

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

I Job Vacancies 1

(Nov.)

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.)(July)
P T

1.4-

60. Ratio, help-wanted acyertising to number
of persons unemployed (ratio)
1.0-

0.6-

0.2*

46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1967-100)

|Comprehensive Emplo|ment|
48. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments
(ann. rate, bil. hours)

42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities

41, Employees on

payrolls (millions)

40. Emolovees in eoods-oroducine industries—
manufacturing, construction (millions) r [ c

1956 S7

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

69

70

71

72

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1982




17

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Mar.
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

PI

(Ian.) (Mf)

[Comprehensive Employment—Con.|

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (percent)

—i

b'j"

| Comprehensive Unemployment |
37. Number unemployed, total (millions—inverted scale)

3^

A

rrr*

^sr*

43. Unemployment rate, total (percent—inverted scale)

|L,lg,U[

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)

Current data for these serias are shown on page 62.

18



FEBRUARY 1982

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T i

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(fclar.)

| Comprehensive Output! and Income |
50. 6NP in 1972 ||doHarst Q (ann. rate, til

etc

52. Personal income iif 1972 dollars (ann,

51. Personal incortie le^s transfer payments]in 1972 dollars
(ann. rate, bit. dol.)

53. Wages and salaries in mining, ma 1
construction in 1972 dollars (ann. ra

1956

97

98

S9

SO

61

62

63

64

69

§6

69

70' 71

72

73

^4 7S

7§

11

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.

BCD

FEBRUARY 1 9 8 2




19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar.)
PI

160-

|Industrial Production |i
47. Industrial production, total (index: 1967-100)

X

|C,C,C|

)

'•i

\

l!

_jl

i
138-

\ /

13UI-

I/O-

y^\
74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(index: 1967 = 100) [ j j j

MR-

A/
73. Industrial production, durable manufactures
(index: 1967-100)

49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars, Q
(ann, rate, bil. dol.)
'•

| Capacity Utilization 1

iiic-

83, Rate of capacity utilization, manuiacturing (BEA)t Q (percent)

190-

82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB), Q (percent) i , r ,.|
I L,vfUJ

8D-

\S
(S4, Kate OT capacity utmzation, materials, i| (percent;

91)H .s

70-

1956 57

53

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

HI

82 1983

Current data for those series are shown on pages 63 and 64.

20



FEBRUARY 1982

licit

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T i

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

(Jan.)(July)
P T

100 ^
[Ordefe and Deliveries!;
6. New orders, durable goods industries,
current dollars (bii. doL)|

7i New orders, durable gggds industries, 1972 dollars
I (bii. dol.)
r—n

J

70-

J*

TT

8. New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (bii, dol.)
"
30-

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries^
(bii. dol.; MCD moving avg.—4-term)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bii. dol.)
rrj-jj

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent)
LL

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1982



21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

| Consumption and Tra|e |

56. Manufacturing and trade sales tn current dollars^^
(biLdol.)
57, Manufacturing and trade sales
in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

75. Industrial production, consumer good;

54. Sales of retail stores trt current dollars (bil, dol>)

59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (bil. dot.)

5b. Persona! consumption expenditures,
automobles, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

58. Index of consumer sentimen1: (1st Q 1966=100)

199S 57

m

39'

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

69

70

71

72

73

74

7S

76

77

78

79

BO

81

m

1983

Current data for those secies are shown on page 65.

22



FEBRUARY 1982

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(far.)

P

(Jan.) (July)
P T

IT

|Formation of Business! Enterprises]
12. Net business formation (index: 1967 =-100)

13.

fim[

New business i

| Business investment Commitments |
20.

Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

10.

Contracts and orders
in current dollars (bil

27. Manufacturers'-new orders, capital goods industries,
; nondefense, tni|1972 dollars (bil.

24. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries
nonaetense, in current ooit

'.'

9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildin
(mil. sq. ft. of floor areaJflCD moving avg,—6-term) 1
L,C,U

1956 57

58

39

61

62

63

64

65

66

SS

69

70

71

72

73

74

79

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

'This is a copyrighted series; used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information;Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1 9 8 2




23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr,)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
I

(Ja:i.) (July)
P I

m-

Business Investment Commitments—Con.

SO97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q
(ML doi.)

11.

New capital appropriations, manufacturing
Q (bil. dol.)

61.

Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, Q
(ann. rate, bil, dol.)

i

C L g L

r~

_,.,

c,

Business Investment Expenditures!

Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (ann. rate. bil. dol.)

in

76. Industrial production, business equipment
(index: 1967 = 100)*

s—

-»

OC

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

24




FEBRUARY 1 9 8 2

IICII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
I

(A?r.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

(Jin.) (July)
P T
200*1

1 Business Investment Expenditures—Con,

180-

Nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars, Q (ann,
?6. Total,
100-

88. Producers' durable equipment, Q

1 Residential Construction Commitments and Investment!
:

28, New private housing units started, total (ann. rate, millions)

29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967-=100)

89. Residential fixed investment, total, in 1972 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

3@1956

57

SS

59

§©

61

62

S3

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

ICO

FEBRUARY 1982



25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

Apr.) (Fab.)
P
T

iNav.)
P

(Ian.) (Jj)y)
P T

(Mir.)
t

[Inventory Investment j
30. Change in business inventories^ 1972 dollars, Q (ann, rate, bil. dol.)

7v\V.

*M»

yyv

36. Net change in inventories on hand and on1
(ann. rate, bil. doL; moving avg.—4-term ) »

31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
(ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-terrn]

Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—4-term)

4A -A^^V^

..li\ !;.i(v

1996 57

58

60

•

61

62

63

64

65

!

66

• '

67

•

68

•JLIJUI'-

69

70

.. ; :.JlJUVn.

.

71

72

73

74

:;

75

76

77

78

79

80

il

82 1983

'This is a weighted 4-to:-m moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for those {.cries are shown on page 68.

26




FEBRUARY 1982

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mir.)
T

(Jan.)(July)
P T

1 Inventories on Handand on Order]

(Hi 0-1
550500450400-

71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories,
current dollars (bil. dol.)

350-

-m
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (bit. dot)

300250200150-

65. Book v|alue of manufacturers' inventories
of finished goods (bit. dol.)
'"
|j

5040-

30-

20-

:

!!

'

:

Ij

!i

•

:

i

il

Ratio, deflated inventories to sales, manufactu ring and trade
(ratio I iLgjjLg,

' .77.

-

/

I /

jj

[

•

1.5-

i

!

::

)[

;;

!:

^

§

!•

•!

:!

1

j

:l

ji

J

\\

i

j

r

i

I"

S i' 78.

;

i! •

ii

!

Stocks of materials and supplies on land
i
and on order,
manufacturing (bil. dol.)
/

60

61

62

:

/

M

40-

!
1

59

/

1

'

S ^ k 1 ••••ii L
58

260240220200180160140120-

!: .

J^

!
<

1956 57

1.71.6-

:s || ;: j

•

i

1.8-

12

^ \

i

1

f\ f

1 |

:

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

r n -

70

tl 72

73

74

75

76

77

78 79

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

KCII

FEBRUARY 1982




27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
(Aug.) (Apr.)
T

(Dae.) (Urn.)
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
I

(Nov.)

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) tJuiy)

P T

Sensitive Commodity Prices]
92. Chance in sensitive crude materials prices
(percent; moving avg.—4-ternf)

23. Spot market prices, raw industrials2 (index: 1967 = 100)

19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 194143*10)
LL
16. Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
Profits and Profit Margins

18. Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars, Q

(ark rate, bil. dol.)

\

80. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj,
1972 dollars, Q (anrwate, bil. dol.)

ucit

79. Corporate profits after taxes with fVA and CCAdj,
current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
L.C.L

11

73

1%

SS

M

82 3i583

'This is a weighted 4°term moving average {with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
^Beginning with data fcr June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for those series are shown on page 69.

28




FEBRUARY 1982

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mai|.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

its and Profit Margins—Con.
22. Ratio, corporate profits (after taxes) t6 total corporate domestic
income, Q (percent)
'!

81. Ratio, corporate profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation and
| capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic
| income, Q (percent)
fij~jj[

15, 1'rofits (after jaxesjjger dollar of sales, all manufacture c

26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector, Q (index: 1977 = 100)
102100 =
9895-

S^
320-

35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars, Q

34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars, Q
(ann, rate, bil. doL)
f["f[

l§ii

i?

IS

ID

(SO SI

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

ICO

FEBRUARY 1982




29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

| Unit labor Costs and labor Share]

M
:\ -

63. Unit labor cost, private business sector, Q
(index: 1977 = 100)
\
—

z
11 l - j

68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product
(1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations, Q (doiars)

T
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967 = 100)
lLg,Lg,Lg|
•

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income,
Q (percent)
| Lg.Lg.Lg |

19S6 S7

S©

59

m

SI

S2

I

64

SS

6S

70

71

78

79

§1

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30



FEBRUARY 1982

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

1 Money 1
!

(Dec.) (Now.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

85. change in money supply Ml
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

(Nov.)
P

(Mar|
T

(Jin.) (July)
P T

IU,l

(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) I L C,U

104, Change in total liquid assets (percent; moving avg.—4-term1)

105. Money supply—Ml—in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

LIE

106. Money supply—M2—in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml, Q (rati

I Velocity of Money)

1956 57

58

108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 Jratio)

59

'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

FEBRUARY 1982



31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
PI

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

33. Change in mortgage debt (arm. rate, bil. do),)

112, Change in bank loans to businesses (ann. rate, bil. do!.;
MCD moving avg.—6-term)

113. Change in consumer installment credit (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil.'dol.)
ILLLI

I

vmm
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

32



FEBRUARY 1982

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Hoy.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.)(July)
P T

I Credit Difficulties I
14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil dol.inverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

iPQ-

,

m±

39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, consumer installment loans
(percent—inverted scale)
iLLLl

"1
22^

•a nJ
-3.0-1

93. Free reserves (bil. dpi.—inverted scale)

94. Member bank borrowing from
the Federal Reserve (bil. dol.)

191$

ii7

iS

i©

i©

S3L

i^

G

78

/O

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

FEBRUARY 1982



33

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

PI

(Mar.)
T

(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
I

(Jan.) {July)
1* 1

[Interest Rates]

119. Federal funds rate (percent) —*-

114. Treasury bill rate
(percent)

116. Corporate bond yields (percent)

115, Treasury bond yields (percent)

118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (percent)

117. Municipal bond yields (percent)

Current data for th<»se series are shown on pages 72 and 73.

34




FEBRUARY 1982

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
I

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Mar.)
1

(Jan.)(July)
P T
-4

21*

«

Mcz

| Interest Rates—Con, [j

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (percent)

7"
109.

Average prime rate charged by batiks (percent)

Si
[Outstanding Debt)
66.

Consumer installment credit (bil. dot.)

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
weekly reporting large commercial
banks (bil. dot.)
**

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent)
U.U.L

S7

58

S9

SO

61

B2

S3

64

Si

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

FEBRUARY 1982




35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Hm.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.)(July)
P T

[Percent rising)

950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span-—, 1-mo. span—)

951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. s p a n - f , I p o . span-—-)

wmm
ti.1!;•;«(!( ( r

IN: •;

liL

HI

11

m

81 1

M

m

. i .t
952.

Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span-—)

i ' i f l u SMWU J IMS

961, Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing— 20 industries (9-mo. s p a n - ^ , 1-mo. span—)

962, Initial claims, State unemployment insurance—51 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—-, 1-mo. span—-)

H
963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls—172 industries (6-mo. span—•-, 1-mo. span—-)

Current data for those series are shown on page 74.

36



FEBRUARY 1982

IU II

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

964.

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar.
T

j Percent rising]

New orders, durable goods industries— 34-35 industries (9-mo. span—~T 1-rtio. span-—)

lOQ-i

50-

965.

Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 industries (4-Q moving avg.-~, 1-Q span-*-*)

966.

Industrial production—24 industries (6-mo. s p a n ^ f l-mo span——)
100 T

967.

span—--)

Spot market prices, raw industrials—13 industrial materials (9-mo. span

100-

50-

; 968, Stock prices, 500 common stocks—52-82 industries (9-mo, span—', 1-tno. s p a n — )
100-

50-

0-

960.

Net profits, manufacturing—about 700 companies1 (4-Q spin)
90-

v

Y

70-

50-

30-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75j

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

IECII

FEBRUARY 1982



37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
(Nc-i.)

(Nov.)
?

(Jan.)(July)
P T

(Mar.)
T

Actual
Percent ri$mg

(ianO (July!
v if

(Mar.)
T

——

Anticipated

Actual
Anticipited

•••••••
Percent rising

—•-•••••••

970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment—18 industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures
1
974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4 •Q span)

Vo
V

/

975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
(a) Actual expenditures

N

(c) Early anticipations
971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span) 1

972

976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1
i

973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span) 1

ft

73

74

7§

7S

77

Ji

1% ©@

SI

§2 1983

-Vr !

9 7 1 Seing prices, retail trade (4-Q span) 1

1971 72

73

74

7i

76

77

7i

79

S©

Si

S2 1083

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about
1,400 business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

38




FEBRUARY 1982

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C3. Rates of Change
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

I Percent change at annual rate

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

910c. Composite index of twelve! leading indicators

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar)
T

1-month spans
3-month spans

920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(series 4 1 , 47, 5 1 , 57)

930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators
(series 62, 70, 72, 9 1 , 95, 109)

50c. GNP in constant (1972) dollars (1-Q span)

47c. Index of industrial production

48c. Employee-hours in nonagncultural establishments

51c. Personal income less transfer
payments in 1972 dollars

.
\

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates th|s latest issue in which the data for each series were published.

FEBRUARY 1 9 8 2




39

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Mar.)
T

P I

200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, b i doU

223. Persqnat income in current dollars
(ann. rate, bif. do!.)
224, Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q (ann. rate. bit. dol.)

225. Disposable personal income in 1972
dollars, Q (ann, rate, bil/dol.)"

217. Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars (ann. rate, thous.jtoL}

227. Per capita disposable personal income in
1972 dollars, Q (armTrate,fltous.doL)
19S6

B7

l

M

S9

8©

SI

62

$3

S4

©B

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

7§

77

78

79

SO

SI

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.

40



FEBRUARY 1982

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Aug.) (Apr)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Marp
T

» billion Mars (c

ffhhual rate, billion dollars (1972)

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

7%

72

73

74

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series aro shown on pages 80 and 81.

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1982




4V

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
,11^,) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr) (Feb.)
PI

(Mar.)
T

F T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

Gross private domestic investment-

242. Total fixed investment, Q

245. Change in business inventories, Q

[Annual rate, billion dollars (1972) |

^ 243. Total fixed mvestrnent, Q

30. Change in business inventories, Q"

19§§

U7

§8

gf

S@

61

St

S3

Si

66

70

71

72

Current data for theio seriet are shown on page 81.

42



FEBRUARY 1982

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Aug.) (Apr.)

P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

I

P

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

P

T

(Nov.)

p

(Mar!)

r

(Jan.) (July)
P T

[Annual rate, billion dollars (current)|
^Government purchases of goods and services—

700860-

500460-

340-

262. federal Government, Q

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)

1677 State and local gbvernmentsrQ
wo-

100-

263. Federal Government, Q

1@56

S7

58

5®

60

Si

B2

Current data for these series are shown on page 81

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1982




43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A5. Foreign Trade
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.J(July)
P T

[Annual rate, billion dollars (current)f4303SQ-

m-

253. Imports of goods and services, Q
H4H

250. Net exports of goods and services, Q

•111"

\ Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)1
Ml)'

r

ILYJ

256. Exports of goods and services, Q - ^

\l

/ v
257. Imports of pods and services, Q

SM

255. Net exports of goods and services, Q

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

81

82 1983

Current data for these iierles are shown on page 82.

44



FEBRUARY 1982

ItOI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
(Aug.) (Apr)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar|)
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)]
30002600220018001400 «

1000-

Compensation of employees, Q

360320 •
280240-

2S& Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustnf|enti;i:tf

c

200 «
180160-

f

140120100§0807060-

JL

50 =

288. Net interest, Q
Yj

40-

282. Proprietors income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments; Q

20-

284. Rental inconf of persons with capital
consumption jjadjus^nent, Q
10 J

jijLJl

1956 57

.

58

:

59

'. JLR_iL

60

.

61

...

62

63

:: : ;' ,.:: - X~. -.

64

65

66

-.:.'.

67

.' ' J U l J U l . i l .

68

69

70

71

! •/.:i

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

BCII

FEBRUARY 1982




45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
|A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A7. Saving
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
f T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current) |

290. Gross saving (private and government), Q

298. Governmenjt surplus or deficit, Q

293. Personal saving rate, Q

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.

46



FEBRUARY 1982 l t d )

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A3. Shares of GNP and National Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Mar|.)
T

1 Percent of GNP 1

70 n

235. Personal consumption expenditures, Q

20-

268. State and local government purchases
of goods and services,) Q
265, Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q

248. Nonresidential fixed investment, Q

249. Residential fixed investment, Q

247. Change in business inventories, Q
251. Net exports of goods and services, Q

[Percent of NationaTtncome[

64. Compensation of employees, Q
75*

283, Proprietors" income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
287. Corporate profits with Inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments, Q

2|9. Net i n t e r e s t ^
•

"

'

,

.

.

.

m

•••^T7

, 1 .

,

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q

1956

07

58

59

8®

SI

62

i

70

71

72

73

7S

77

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

BCII

FEBRUARY 1982




47

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B |

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart Bl. Price Movements
(Not?)
P

(Mat)
T

(Nov.)
P

(Jan.)(July)
P T

Index: 1972 = inn

y
310. Implicit price deflator, GNP,

q

220
200-

PI

P T

310c. Implicit price deflator,
2

GNP g . Q span)

180160140-

(Mar.
T

Percent change at annual rate

-*E

••W-

V*

311c. Fixed weighted price index, gross business product (1-0 span)

311. Fixed-weighted price inde&

Producer prices—
335c. Industrial commodities
330.

_ . J H J .,

.v m

334c. Finished consumer goods

334. Finished consumer goods

1971 72

73

74

75

7©

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

1971 72

73

74

7§

76

11

78

7S

SI

82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.




FEBRUARY 1982

KCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

| Percent change at annual rate
320c. All items (6-month span)

322c. Food (6-month span)

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity

341. Real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy1

120

X
340. Average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy (current dollars)1'

X
346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q
100 <

345. Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars)

1956 57

58

§9

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 7§

77

78

79

80

81

82 1983

'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.

BCII

FEBRUARY 1982




49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

| Wag^s—ConTj
Change in average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy1—

(Nov.)
F

(Mar.)
I

(Jarc.S (kl\j)
F T

6-month spans (ami. rate) j.
\
i
ii

! 340c. Current-dollar earnings

341c. Real

Change in average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—

6-month spans (ann.

345c. Current-dollar compensation

4-quarter spans V
0' •

346c. Real compensation _
1-quarter spans (ann. rate)

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries—
348. First year average changes, Q (ann. rate)
349.

Average changes over life of
contract, Q (ann. rate)

I Index: 1967^100

[Productivity]

358.

Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q
370.

Output per hour, at! persons;,
private business sector, Q

370c. Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q
f

1-quarter spans (ann. rate)

|

'Adjuitad for overtime {In manufacturing only) and Inter industry employment shifts and seasonality. 'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them
comparable with the (innuallzed 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these tteries are shown on pages 87 and 88.

50



FEBRUARY 1982

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
(Dec.) (Nov.)
I

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Nov.)

(Jen.) (July)
P T

(feiar.)
T

105100441.

Civilian labor force, total

7570°

Labor force participation rates (percent)—
451.

Males 20 years and over

<<t=^--*
;

75 =

';*'
453.

Both sexes 16-19 years" oTage

' T

"

"

"

A

60-

20 years] anit over
to-

Number unemployed (millions)—

737.

Total unemployed

446.

447.
448.

1SS6 57

§8

Both sexes ;"16-19tyears of age

Number unemployed, full-time
workers (millions)

Number employed part-time for economic
reasons {tnftoirs)

19

i©

61

$2

S3 64

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

ItCII

FEBRUARY 1982



51

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Jan) (July)
P T

(Mar.)
T

ij

j {Annual

rate, billion dollars (current)

[ivj

lull

830630-

400*

1

502.

Federal Government expenditures,

501. Federal

A
Government

receipts, Q

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q

!.»(>•

511. State and local government receipts, Q

512.

State and local government expenditures, Q
mi*

510.

1956 57

53

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

State and local government surplus or deficit, Q

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

79

76

77

78

79

80

®l 82 1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

52




FEBRUARY 1982

IN:

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
D

|

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

:;

|Advajhce Measures of Defense Activity]

||

1

'

;

517.

20-1

;

/4

l|
:

(Jan.) (July)
P T

(Marl)
T1

1121

1816'
1412-

Defense Department gross obligations incurred
10-

II

'

!•'

.

12 -i
11109-

525. Defense Department military prime contract awards
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.adBL4erm.)

1

'

it

.*•.

.* ,

ITTWi

7-

n

100it

'

• if

t

i

i'

i
543.

Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil. dol.)

548.

Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

Current data for these series aire shown on page 90.

KCII

FEBRUARY 1 9 8 2




53

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.;
?
T

(Dec) (Nov.)
f
1

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

|Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity]

I

(Key.)
f

(Mar.)
T

F T

\

557. Output of defense and space equipment (index: 1967 = 100)

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (bil. dot.)

561. Manufacturers' untied orders, defense products (bil. dol.)

580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military
assistance (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg,—6-termJ

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—4-term)

Current data for thesis serios are shown on page 91.

54



FEBRUARY 1982

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
£) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

[jnterfeiediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Con. [
1;

)\

•

(Nov.)
P

j
','

I!
.'.

\\

(Mar)
T

(Jan.)(July)
P T

jj
u

570. Employment in defense products industries (millions)

\M

1>6<

Defense Department personnel (millions)—;
577. Military, active duty

578. Civilian, direct hire employment

[National Defense Purchases]

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and seryides for national
defense, Q (anruatfc, bUoL).
.
,J ,

m-

565. National defense purchases as a percent
ercent of GNP, Q (percent)

17

IS

m

6©

$1

$2

Current data for these series are shown on page 91,

BCII

FEBRUARY 1982




55

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Chart 1:1. Merchandise Trade
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Now.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (Juiy)
P T

14-

M

IS15?*--

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments
(bil. dol.; MCO moving avg.—5-term)

604. Exports of agricultural products,
total (bil. dol.) I

606, Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bil. dol

612. General imports (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg,—4-term)

112
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (bil. dol.)

616. Imports of automobiles and parts (bif. dol.)

11

1%

7%

74

y©

is®

Current data for* these series are shown on page 92.

56



FEBRUARY 1982

IUII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.|>
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

Annual rate, billion dollars

Excess) of receipts
Excess of payments

667. Balance on goods and services, Q

668. Exports, Q

669. Imports, Q

Merchandise, adjusted

622. Merchandise trade balance, Q

618. Exports, Q

Investment income—
651. Income on U.S. investments abroad, Q
_

_

— V

652. Income on foreign investments in the U.S., Q

NOTE: Annual totals are shown for the period prior to 1960.
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

BCII

FEBRUARY 1982




57

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart Fl. Industrial Production
(Aua-HApr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Mar.)
1

(Jan.) (Jul?
P T

| Index: 1 9 6 7 - 100 [

Industrial production—

-2-v^

M

728. Japan - ^ ^ ^

721. OECD European countries

47. United States

;u>

722. United Kingdom

:!•

19SS S/

SS

St

60

©1 62

63

$4

71

71

1%

36

Bt

$2 11983

Current data for theso series are shown on page 94.

58



FEBRUARY 1982

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Chart F2. Consumer Prices
(Nov.)
P

Chart F3. Stock Prjces

(Mar.)
T

(Nov.)
P

(Jan.) (July)
P T

[6-month spans]

| Percent change at annual rate
Consumer prices—

(Mar.)
T

(Jan.) (July)
P T

jlridex: 1967^100]

Stock prices—
19. United States

320c. United States ^ ^

*

1971 72

73

7J6c. France

74

75

76

77

78

7

72

73

74

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

ItCII FEBRUARY 1982



59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

B
Year
and
month

910. Index of
12 leading indicators (series
1, 5 , 8 , 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
92, 104, 106)

920. Index of
4 roughly
coincident indicators (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

930. Index of
6 lagging indicators (series
62, 70, 72,
91, 95, 109)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

940. Ratio,
coincident
index to
lagging index

(1967-100)

COMPOSITE INDEXES

Leading indicator subgroups
913. Marginal
employment
adjustment!;
(series 1, 2, 3,
5)

914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12. 20,
29)

(1967-1(0)

(1967-100)

915. Inventory
916. Profit •
investment
ability (series
and purchasing
19, 26. BO)
{series 8, 32, 38,
92)

(1967 100)

(196? 100)

917. Money
and financial
flows (serifis
li!4. 106. MCI

(1967 100:-

C1)

CO

1980

1

January
February
March . . . . . . . . .

134.7
134.1
131.5

146.1
145.2
143.5

178.4
180.8
190.0

81.9
80.3
75.5

96.3
96.4
94.5

111.6
109.9
107.8

102.7
102.1
101.6

90.9
91.6
H9.6

April
..
May . . . .
June

126.2
123.0
123.9

140.5
138.0
136.7

196.2
183.5
168.5

71.6
75.2
81.1

90.3
88.3
89.6

104.3
103.2
104.5

100.3
98.8
97.7

im.y
H8.5
B 9.7

July .
August
September . . . . . . .

128.1
130.7
134.4

136.5
136.7
138.1

163.6
161.7
164.2

83.4
[H)84.5
84.1

91.7
92.2
92.9

106.1
107.0
|H)1O8.8

98.5
99.5
101.5

90.6
91.3
91.5

October
November
December

135.0
136.5
136.4

139.7
140.8
141.3

168.5
175.6
191.0

82.9
80.2
74.0

93.6
94.2
94.5

107.3
108.2
108.3

103.1
103.4
103.2

91.8
92.2
93.0

January
........
February . . . . .
March . .

135.2
rl34.2
r!35.9

142.0
142.5
142.4

189.1
rl86.5
rl81.2

75.1
r76.4
r78.6

94.2
94,1
r94.1

106.7
rlO5.2
rl06.0

102.1
rlQS.l
rlO3.7

93,9
04.4
;H)94.O

139.4
rl37.!i
rl38.a

April . . . . . . . . . .
May
June . . . . . . . . . . .

[H)rl37.4
rl36.1
rl35.2

142.2
142.2
142.5

rl79.4
rl89.4
rl91.2

r79.3
75.1
r74.5

H>r94.9
r94.2
r94..4

rlO6.2
rlO5.2
rlO3.6

[H)rlO4.3
rlO3.7
rlO3.5

94.4
93.7
93.8

nae.B
rl39.8
rl39.6

July . . . . . . . . . . .
August
September

rl34.9
rl34.2
rl30.8

142.6
IR>142.6
142.0

rl93.0
rl94.0
[H)rl94.6

r73.9
r73.5
73.0

94.8
93.6

r91.1

rlO2.7
102.2
rlO1.7

rlO3.9
rlO3.1
rlO2.1

93.5
93.5
90.9

October ,
November
December . . . . . .

rl28.6
128.2
H27.8

139.9
rl38.7
136.6

rl89.8
r!84.8
181.7

73.7
r75.1
r75.2

r90.4
r90.2
r89.1

r99.5
r99.7
rlOO.6

rlOO.8
99.8
r99.2

90.3
p^O.O
(NA)

rl39.4
rl39./
r138.0
rl37.4
riaa.o

3

*f34.4

a

p73.0

(NA)

plOO.5

p98.4

...

.......
.......

YSLY.

I :!(«.<;
i: : :i.:
l^'..(;

139.1
;H-139.9
VAV..'-\

1981

rl38.1

1982
January , . .
February . . . . .
March ,

127.0

184.1

April . . . . . . . .
May
June . . . . . . . .
July . . . . . . . .
August . . . . . .
September . . . .
October . . . . . . . . .
November
December . . . . . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by @ , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by |H); for series that snove counter to mimniieits
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles mid st;jrcKS &n\ listed at tit1, bitck
of this issue. The " r 1 indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
1

Soe "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page iii.
lixeluUes scries 12, for which data are not yet available.
3
Hxaludes scries 12 and 36, for which data arc not yet available, and scries I, which has been omitted.
for This Issue," page iv (item 3).
"tixelutles series 57, for which data are not yet available.
9
!ixeludes series 70 and 95, for which data are not yet available.
2

60



Sec "New I'enturcs and Changes

FEBRUARY 1982

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Timing Class

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYV ENT

^ Q

L, L, L

L, C, L

1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production workers,
manufacturing

(Hours)

(Hours)

1980

L, L, L

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

L, C, L

5. Average
weekly initial
claims, State
unemployment
insurance'

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

L Lg, U

L, L, L

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

(Per 100 employees)

(Thous.)

(Per 100 employees)

n

Revised 2

(2)

4. Qilit rate,
manufacturing

(Pdr 100 employees)

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

U, C, C

60. Ratio, help. wanted advertising to persons
unemployed

46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising
in newspapers

48. Employeehours in nonagricultural
establishments

(Ratio)

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
bil, hours)

Revised 2

(2)

January
February
March

40.1
40.0
39.7

3.1
2.9
3.0

3.9
3.8
3.7

416
397
438

1.4
1.3
1.4

1.9
1.9
1.8

0.688
0.677
0.643

154
151
145

172.48
172 ,,12
171.17

April
May
June

39.8
39.5
39.3

3.0
2.6
2.5

3.2
3.1
3.4

532
616
581

2.7
3.2
2.6

1.6
1.5
1.4

0.493
0.414
0.427

122
112
115

170.18
169.03
167.96

July
August
September

39.2
39.5
39.6

2.5
2.7
2.7

3.5
3.6
3.7

510
495
488

1.6
1.8
1.5

1.4
1.4
1.3

0.422
0.423
0.453

118
117
122

167.03
168.11
169.05

October
November
December

39.7

2.8
3.0
3.0

E>3.7
3.6
3.5

447
422
420

1.5
1.3
1.2

1.3
1.4
1.5

0.466

39.8
39.9

©0.495
0.490

127
H>134
130

169.65
170.04
171.11

40.1
39.8
39.9

3.0
2.8
2.8

3.5
3.5
3.4

424
410
413

1.4
1.3
1.3

1.4
1.4
1.3

0.475
0.482
0.468

128
129
125

H>172.81
171.59
172.08

2.9

395
401
405

1.1
1.3
1.3

1.3
1.3
1.4

0.445
0.426
0.450

118
118
121

170.50
171.37

0.468
0.444
0.405

123
119
112

171.03
171.23
167.88

0.378

1981
January
February
March

40.2

April
May
June

E>40.3
40.1

0)3.2
3.0

3.4
3.1
3.4

July
August
September

40.0
40.0
39.3

3.0
3.0
2.7

3.4
3.2
2.9

E>395
421
483

B>i.o

H>1.5

1.4
1.7

1.3
1.3

October
November
December

39.5
39.3
r39.0

2.7
2.5
2.4

2.9
3.1
2.7

517
539
551

2.2
2.3
r2.2

1.2
1.1
1.1

0.363
0.339

110
111
109

T170.63
rl70.05
rl69.85

p36.9

p2.2

(NA)

p563

(NA)

(NA)

pO.339

plO6

P165.44

170
1 / U . ORfi
D

1982
January
Fcbrusrv
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

FEBRUARY 1982



1

61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ |

Minor Economic
Process

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Continued

Comprehensive Employment-Continued

Comprehensive Unemployment

Timing Class . . . . . .

U,C, C

C, C, C

L, C, U

U, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

L. Lg, U

L, Lg, U

Year
and
month

42. Persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment
survey

40. Employees
in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction)

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to total
population of
working age

37. Number of
persons unemployed, labor
force survey

43. Unemployment rate,
total

45. Average
weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs!

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous,)

(Percent)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Weeks)

(Percent)

Revised

1980

2

Revised

2

Revised

2

Revised

2

Revised

Lg, Lg, Lg

2

Revised

2

1 * Lg, l g

Revised

|
8

January . . . . . . . . .
February . . . . . . . .
March . . . . . . . . .

96,506
96,521
96,205

90,687
90,865
90,871

26,385
26,363
26,238

59.20
59.17
58.91

6,660
6,635
6,714

6.3
6.2
6.3

3.3
3.2
3.4

10.5
10.6
11.0

1.3
1,3
1.4

April
May . . . . .
June

95,832
95,552
95,483

90,817
90,446
90,087

25,971
25,662
25 402

58.55
58.39
58.20

7,370
8,059
8,024

6.9
7.5
7 .5

3.7
4.2
4.5

11.3
10.7
11
7
A 1 « f

1.6
1.6
1i . i/7

July
August
September

95,546
95,667
95,759

89,960
90,219
90,461

25,151
25,322
25,445

58.16
58.11
58.21

8,330
8,239
8,024

7.8
7.7
7.5

4.3
4.2
4.2

11.9
12.4
13.0

1.9
Z.O

October
November .
December

95,965
96,164
96,146

90,668
90,844
90,949

25,521
25,629
25,631

58.21
58.27
58.26

8,109
8,066
7,899

7.5
7.5
7.3

4.0
3.8
3.6

13.2
13.5
13.6

2.IL
2.2
2.2

96,456
96,723
97,063

91,091
91,258
91,347

25,647
25,657
25,705

58.34
58.38
58.52

8,022
7,965
7,958

7.4
7.4
7.3

3.5
3.3
3.4

14.4
14.1
13.9

t.t

97,408
©97,640
97,082

91,458
91,564
91,615

25,700
25,705
25,818

58.73
©58.76
58.33

7,899
8,248
8,004

7.3
7.5
7.4

3.4
3.3
3.3

13.7
13.3
14.3

2.0
2.0
t/l

97,522
97,436
96,900

91,880
91,901
©92,033

©25,939
25,931
25,930

58.51
58.44
58.03

©7,824
7,978
8,236

©7.2
7.3
7.6

©3.1
3.2
3.3

14.1
14.3
13.7

2.0
[H)2.0
2.1

96,965
96,800
96,404

91,832
r91s522
r91,096

25,662
r25,418
r25,117

58.01
57.85
57.47

8,659
9,100
9,571

8.0
8.3
8.8

3.5
3.9
4.1

13.6
13.1
[H)12.8

2.1
?>, 2
2.2

96,170

p90,859

p24,761

57.40

9,298

8.5

p4.0

13.5

2.2

.

1981
January .
February . . . . . . . .
March .
April
May . . . . .
June
July
August .
September

.......

October .
November
December

2.31

1982
January
February
March

........

April . . . . . . .
May .
June
July
August
September
October . . . . . . .
November
December

.
.

See note on page 60
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
'Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
a
Sec "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

62



FEBRUARY 1982

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

PRODUCTION AND INCOME

Minor Economic
Process

Industrial Production

Comprehensive Output and Income

Timing Class

c, c, c

50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars

Year
and
month

C C, C

52. Constant
(1972) dollars

51. Personal
income, less
transfer payments, in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Persona income

223. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

C C, C

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, C, C

53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, mfg.,
and construction in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit dol.)

C

c, c

C, C, C

C, L, L

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

<196J7 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967-100)

47. IHdex of
industrial
production,
total

c, c, c

49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1

1980

2,086.4
2,101.0

1,216.2
1,207.4
1,199.2

1.056.5
1L,050.9
]1,044.0

240.7
239.4
236.5

153.0
152.8
152.1

144.8
144.4
143.5

166.0
165.8
164.3

682 A

2,102,1
2,114.1
2,127.1

1,194.4
1,195.1
1,195.0

1,037.6
]1,036.0

148.2
143.8
141.4

138.5
133.3
129.9

161.6
158.1
155.1

658!l

.035.1

232.0
228.1
225.0

2,161.2
2,179.4
2,205.7

1,206.7
1,207.4
1,208.6

1,033.8
1,036.2
1,036.9

224.1
226.3
227.9

140.3
142.2
144.4

128.7
129.9
132.1

154.6
157.6

H61.0

1,485!6

2,234.3
2,257.6
2,276.6

1,216.3
1,221.0
1,222.7

1,045.5
1,051.6
1,053.7

229.4
231.6
232.2

146.6
149.2
150.4

135.7
139.2
140.3

162.1
163.0
165.0

662! 9

Rl,516!4

2,300.7
2,318.2
2,340.4

1,227.7
1,231.1
1,233.1

1,057.8
1,062.0
1,063.5

H>234.9
232.6
232.6

151.4
151.8
152.1

141.0
140.8
142.1

165.6
166.2
165.3

688^9

1.51CL4

2,353.8
2,367.4
2,384.3

1,234.9
1,236.2
1,238.6

1,065.7
1,067.3
1,069.0

232.3
232.0
231.8

151.9
152.7
152.9

142.5
143.5
143.2

165.9
166.4
165.8

68613

July
August
September

2,419.2
2,443.4
2,462.6

1,243.8

1,515!8

0)1,250.5
1,249.4

1,068.0
1)1,075.6
1,075.4

231.7
231.8
229.8

1)153.9
153.6
151.6

E>143.6
143.4
140.9

167.1
E>167.3
165.9

E>69i!9

October
November
December

rl,497^6

r2,474.7
r2,492.0
r2,490.9

rl,247.3
rl,249.7
rl,243.6

rl,074.1
rl,075.5
rl,068.8

228.9
227.5
224.8

rl49.1
146.4
rl43.4

rl37.8
rl34.5
131.0

rl62.8
rl60.6
rl57.6

r673.7

E>p2,494.7

pi,241.8

pi,066.6

p223.2

pl39.1

P126.0

p!53.2

2,077.2

January
February
March

1,501.9

April
May
June

1,463^3

July
August
September

1,471.9

October
November
December

657^5

1981
January
February
March
April

May
June

1982
January
February
March

'

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.

*See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,1 page

IM:

FEBRUARY 1982




in.

63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS . ,

Q [

Minor Economic
Process

Capacity Utilization

Timing Class

Year
and
month

{ Q

PRODUCTION AND INCOME-Continued

L, C, U

83. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(BEA)

82. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(FRB)

(Percent)

(Percent)

Orders and Deliveries

L, C, U

84. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
materials

(Percent)

L, L, L

6. Current
dollars

(Bil. dot.)

July . . .
August
September . . .
October
November
December

.. .
., .

7. Constant
(1972) dol.ars

(Bil, dol)
Revised1

L, L, L

8. New orders
for consumer
goods and
materials in
1972 dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, Lg. U

I, I I

25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries @

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

(Percent
reporting)

Revised*

85.8

83.58
83.15
79.39

41.79
41.10
39.22

36.72
36.89
33.96

3.92
2.50
1.88

197.58
300.08
301.96

40

83.4

77.9

78.8

73.38
69.00
70.33

36.16
33.89
34.21

31.25
30.27
30.05

-1.34
-3.30
-1.58

300.62
297.33
29!). 75

40
V,
28

75.9

75.2

80.21
76.78
82.16

38.66
36.72
39.09

32.50
32.65
34.31

B>4.66
1.30
2.43

300.40
301.70
304.13

V,
34
39

79.1

80.1

83.36
83.97
86.58

39.21
39.35
E>40.21

35.71
35.36
35.06

0.84
0.74
3.10

304.98
30b>. 72
308.82

44
45
4/

[H>79.9

B>82.2

84.21
85.45
86.73

39.30
39.41
39.80

33.77
35.61
34.96

0.88
1.23
1.67

309.70
310.93
312.60

46
50

79.8

81.2

87.18
88.16
88.30

39.68
39.86
39.69

35.55
35.46
[H>35.82

0.85
1.50
-0.48

313.45
314.95
314.48

52
40

79.3

r81.1

©89.70
87.35
86.28

40.10
38.86
38.23

35.61
34.07
33.86

2.38
0.52
0.09

316.85
31/.37
[H>3r/.46

46
48
43

p74.8

p75.3

77.80
r79.96
r79.76

34.31
35.07
34.92

31.67
30.94
31.06

-4.78
r-1.69
r-1.38

312.68
r311.00
r3Q9.61

38
32
30

p78.54

p34.34

P29.15

p0.30

P309.91

32

80

April . . . . . . .
May . . . . . . .
June . . . . . . .

L, L. L

Value of manufacturers' nev/
orders, durable goods industries

1980
January
February
March

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

76

76

78

1981
January
February
March . .
April
May
June

78

B)78

July
August
September . . .
October
November . . ,
December . . .

p76

(NA)

1982
January
February .., . ,
March
April
,
May
June . . . . . .
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60,
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
l
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page iii.

64



FEBRUARY 1982

BUI

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

i

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
C, C, C

c, c, c

Manufacturing jnd trade sales
56. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)

57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)

C, L, C

75. Index of industrial production, consumer
goods

(1967 = 100)

C, L, U

U, L, U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Timing Class

Year
and
month

• 1
Kll

| CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued

59. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)

L, C, C

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)

L, L, L

58. Index of
consumer,
sentiment ©

(1st Q
1966-100)

L, L, L

12. Index of
net business
formation

(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)
Revised 1

1980
January
February
March

318,101
317,901
312,469

161,064
159,458
155,104

147.9
148.2
148.0

79,561
78,899
77,603

45,751
44,931
43,524"

7L6

67.0
66.9
56.5

131.0
129.8
125.8

44,230
44,175

April
May
June

305,440
302,071
305,326

151,464
149,048
150,115

145.2
142.1
141.8

76,404
75,975
77,843

42,660
42,279
43,007

50.7

52.7
51.7
58.7

120.5
117.8
114.8

42,240
42,710
40,648

July
August
September

315,633
317,906
327,758

152,645
150,945
154,613

142.1
142.9
144.5

79,491
79,829
80,620

43,700
43,433
43,251

58^7

62.3
67.3
73.7

115.3
117.7
120.6

43,621
44,255
45,746

October
November
December

335,873
339,049
343,752

156,734
156,772
157,566

146.3
148.1
147.1

81,552
82,764
83,443

43,518
43,907
43,917

66!i

75.0
76.7
64.5

119.6
119.2

E>121.3

45,945
46,750
47,840

January
February
March

349,018
350,334
349,898

158,527
[0)159,522
158,775

146.9
147.8
148.3

85,463
86,810
87,608

44,768
45,166
[H>45,182

fH>75!6

71.4
66.9
66.5

118.1
rll7.1
rll7.7

46,039
47,706
47,879

April
May
June

350,923
349,245
354,442

157,941
156,601
158,501

148.9
150.7
150.3

85,855
85,501
87,384

44,164
43,892
44,721

63*3

72.4
76.3
73.1

rll8.0
rll5.4
rll4.6

49,413
48,997
49,172

July
August
September

E>354,759
352,783
353,717

157,406
156,178
156,182

©150.7
149.6
147.8

87,350
88,591

7CL2

H>88,699

44,273
44,788
44,416

74.1
E>77.2
73.1

rll2.9
rll2.3
rill.5

49,404
48,631
48,450

October
November
December

345,287
r345,213
p343,281

151,783
rl51,684
pl50,990

rl46.5
rl44.2
142.3

86,660
r87,222
r87,060

43,222
r43,351
r43,227

70.3
62.5
64.3

rllO.O

r63*.5

elO8.2
(NA)

47,947
(H>p49,513
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

P138.1

p86,119

p42,697

1981

1982
January
February
March

71.0

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,

FEBRUARY 1982



page i n .

65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

j Q

M i n o r Economic
Process . . . . . . . .

Business Investment Commitments

Timing Class . . . . . .

L, L, L

L, L. L

Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment
Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued

)

\
1980

10. Current
dollars

20. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

Revised3

Revised 9

L, L, L

Value of manufacturers' new orders,
capital goods industries, nondefense
24. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)

U C U

L, L, L

9 Construction contracts for comrrercial and industrial buildings'

27. Constant
(1972) dollars

Square feet of
floor space

Square meters of
floor space2

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

(Millions)

Revised 9

Revised 3

U. Lg. U

C Lg, Lg

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1000
manufacturing
corpora tionn

(Bil. tfol.)

(Bil. dol.)

January . . . . . . .
February . .
March

27.88
24.54
25.97

15.28
13.45
13.92

24.84
21.98
23.09

13.83
12.24
12.57

99.43
82.08
78.31

9.24
7.63
7.27

April
May
June

24.93
22.55
24.24

13.33
12.20
13.32

22.44
20.23
21.10

12.18
11.13
11.90

72.76
67.35
71.59

6.76
6.26
6.65

14.59
13.49
13.84

23.52
21.28
22.52

(H>13.32
11.54
12.43

74.62
71.41
64.15

6.93
6.63
5.96

^4] 12

6.82
[H)8.44
8.15

26!l5

. . .
.

:

27! 50
8 2 ! 36

86.38

July
August . . . . . .
September . . . . . . .

26.34
2S.62
25.67

October
November
December

25.06
27.26
28.18

12.96
14.45
14.76

21.62
23.35
24.66

11.42
12.71
13.22

73.46
[H)90.80
87.75

IN) 28.89
24.96
28.33

[H>14.78
12.55
14.20

[H>24.82
21.18
24.46

13.00
10.90
12.51

83.72
83.86
83.79

7.78
7.79
7.78

27! 75

... .

28.19
27.37
27.86

14.10
13.81
13.85

24.72
23.86
23.23

12.58
12.28
11.83

79.64
84.75
81.01

7.40
7.87
7.53

IB)2B\kk

July
August . . . . . . . . .
September

27.78
27.78
26.64

13.90
13.99
13.71

24.23
24.70
23.03

12.36
12.66
12.16

73.46
78.67
68.12

6.82
7.31
6.33

pze'.m

October
November . . . . . . .
December . . . . . .

24.71
27.16
27.20

12.19
14.16
14.11

21.00
r23.81
r22.52

10.59
rl2.73
rl2.14

74.26
70.77
70.65

6.90
6.57
6.56

(NA)

P26.83

P13.06

p22.23

pll.12

56.29

5.23

.......
,,..,..

BB'.U

1981
January
February
March
April
May
Jung

.
.

93.34

H)96!g6

p9fi!26

<NA)

1982
January
February
March . . . . . . . . .
April .
May
June . . . . . . . . . . .
July . . . . . . . . . .
August . . . . . . . . .
September
October
November
December

.......
.......

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.

Mil is is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, IMV. Dodge Division.
^Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
a
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

66



FEBRUARY 1982

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

Minor Economic
Process

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

Timing Class

C, Lg, Lg

Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

61. Business
expenditures
for new plant
and equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)

C Lg, Lg

69. Machinery
76. Index of
and equipment
industrial prosales and business duction, business
equipment
construction
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C Lg, C

C Lg, U

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, C

Nonresidential fixed investmentsi 1972 dollars
86. Total

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

28. New
private housing
units started,
total
(Ann. rate,
thous.)

L. L, L

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(1967-100)

L, L, L

89. Residential
fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1

1980
291*89

306.87
313.92
311.56

175.2
176.5
176.2

165*0

50*5

nils

1,339
1,356
1,060

105.2
96.6
80.6

54*2

April
May
June

294*36

303.73
305.60
305.91

174.5
171.8
169.7

156! i

48*7

107*4

1,030
939
1,196

66.6
69.8
88.4

43*i

July
August
September

296*23

307.06
299.58
317.20

169.5
171.1
170.7

46*8

108*8

1,273
1,418
1,463

99.5
109.5

44*7

B>122.6

October
November
December

299*58

317.03
320.32
322.93

171.9
173.9
177.1

157*6

47*8

109*3

1,504
1,539
1,457

109.1
110.3
100.9

56!6

January
February
March

312*24

326.16
325.22
336.68

177.7
177.5
179.3

162*6

49*6

112*4

E)l,585
1,294
1,318

98.1
94.1
93.1

Dsi'o

April
May
June

316*73

334.62
336.38
343.91

181.0
182.0
183.6

161*1

50*4

110-7

1,301
1,172
1,046

95.8
94.3
77.8

47.8

July
August
September

1)328*25

338.38
346.89
347.05

0)184.8
184.4
182.7

E>163*9

51*5

E>112*4

1,040
946
899

73.7
69.9
68.7

42*7

October
November
December

a332!06

rl61.7

[H>r52.0

rlO9.7

854
860
899

58.3
58.4
63.7

r39.3

p894

67.2

January
February
March

. . .

1981

334.01
r346.08

180.5

H>p347.99

rl78.6
rl77.0

(NA)

P172.9

1982
January
February
March

a345*46

April
May
June

a354*83

July
August . .
September
October
November
December .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.

FEBRUARY 1982



67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
.

g |

Minor Economic
Process . . . . . . .

Inventories on Hand and on Order

Inventory Investment

Timing Class

Year
and
month

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

L, L, L

L, L, L

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars

36. Change in inventories on
hand and on order, 1972 dollars
Monthly
data

L. L, L

Smoothed
data 1

31. Change
in book value
of mfg. and
trade inventories, total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised*

Revised2

-0.9

-16.86
-12.74
1.31

-12.58
-15.69
-12.76

51.
51.
37.4

1.3

-4.08
-24.42
-24.06

-7.30
-7.12
-13.29

66.3
18.4
14.5

-5.0

-6.18
-7.58
-1.24

-17.87
-15.41
-8.80

31.7
25.4
30.7

-7.2

5.68
-1.74
-14.76

-3.02
-0.07
-1.35

25.4
15.2
3.8

January
February
March

-1.4

-15.37
6.02
-3.79

-7.12
-9.33
-6.21

April . . . . . . .
May . . .
June

10.8

3.36
7.25
1)17.33

-1.26
2.07
5.79

H>14.9

10.70
0.25
9.90

10.54
©10.59
8.19

1.22
-1.56
p-15.19

(NA)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1980
January , . . , ,
February
March . . . . . .
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November , . .
December . . ,

L. L, L

38. Change
in stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.
(Bil dol.)

tg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dol'ars

(Bil dol.)

70. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Bil dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

L, Lg, Lg

65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished
goods, book
value

77. Ratio,
constantdollar inventories to
sales, mfg.
and trade

78. Stocks of
material!; and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.

(Bil dol.)

(Ratio)

(Bil dol.)

448.54
452.80
455.92

264.77
264.14
264.60

72.43
73.42
74.52

1.64
1.66
1.71

215.88
218.72
219.86

461.44
462.98
464.19

266.02
265.24
264.73

7B.99
76.67
77.10

1.76
1.78
1.76

218.94
216.B9
714.SB

1.01

466.83
468.94
471.50

264.79
264,39
264,24

77.60
77.73
77.49

1.73
1.75
1.71

216.41
215.36
216.37

0.96
0.29
0.62

473.62
474.88
475.20

264.33
264.10
262.97

77.25
77.44
76.56

1.69
1.68
1.67

217.33
217.62
218.24

39.0
67.4
16.8

0.13
1.40
-0.25

478.45
484.07
485.47

262.81
262.86
262.64

76.20
77.47
79.25

1.66
1.65
1.65

218.37
219.78
219.B2

19.1
38.
47.

1.16
1.18
0.40

487.06
490.25
494.23

263.16
263.94
265.40

79.19
80.39
81.21

1.67
1.69
1.67

220.69
221.86
222.26

46
52.
ED 68,

1.91
-1.59
©2.18

498.10
502.46
508.13

266.46
267.05
268.53

81.22
82.58
83.78

1.69
1.71
1.72

224.18
222.59
[H>224.77

5.37
3.49
p-1.00

42.6
r41.8
p-25.0

-2.60
r-1.76
p-1.00

511.68
(H)r515.16
P513.0S

r269.67
[H>r270.35
p269.36

84.87
[H)r85.14
p83.85

1.78
rl.78
|H)pl.78

r220»41
P219.41

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

-0.92

1981

July
August
September . . .
October

November . , ,
December . . .

r6.2

222.17

1982

January . . . . .
February . . . .
March . . . . . .

(NA)

April . . . .
May . . . . . . .
June .
July . . . . . . .
August
September , . .
October
November . . .
December
See note on page BO
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
2
See "New l-'eatures and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




FEBRUARY 1982

Kill

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

g j

Minor Economic
Process

Sensitive Commodity Prices

Timing Class

L, L, L

Year
and
month

Monthly
data

Revised*

1980

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrials3®

Smoothed
data2

(Percent)

Stock
Prices
U, L, L

92. Change in sensitive crude
materials prices

(Percent)

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

L, L, L

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks @

(1967-100)

(1941-43 = 10)

Profits and Profit Marg ns

L, L, L

L, L, L

Corporate profits after taxes
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

18. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, C, L

L, C, L

Corporate profits after taxes
with IVA and CCAdjl
79. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

80. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, I, I

22. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) to total
corporate
domestic income

(Percent)

Revised"

3.21
1.48
-1.44

2.30
2.30
1.65

316.2
322.5
316.9

110.87
115.34
104.69

182! 9

102.* 6

106*0

6o'i

0.54
0.07
0.96

0.64
-0.04
0.12

301.9
278.5
267.5

102.97
107.69
114.55

146*5

80*3

97.8

54*1

9*4

July
August
September

2.04
2.41
2.06

0.77
1.41
1.99

277.6
292.1
298.3

119.83
123.50
126.51

159] i

85*5

99*4

54*6

l6I6

October
November
December

2.46
2.31
1.45

2.24
2.29
2.18

300.8
[H>304.7
298.4

130.22
1)135.65
133.48

164*3

86*6

98*1

52*2

10*3

2.74

E>6.64

2.12
2.89

[H)87!8

115*3

E)6u'2

E>10*3

B>3.26

132.97
128.40
133.19

03)169*2

-0.62

291.6
284.2
289.8

1.71
2.25
0.23

2.75
1.84
1.26

293.0
288.9
282.9

134.43
131.73
132.28

152.7

77^4

113.9

58*2

9*2

July
August
September

0.47
-0,63
0.79

1.19
0.50
0.12

286.6
289.5
283.0

129.13
129.63
118.27

156^3

76*5

0)117*6

58.9

9.1

October
November
December

-0.93
-0.63
0.24

-0.02
-0.26
-0.35

277.2
270.5
264.2

119.80
122.92
123.79

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

-1.31

-0.50

January
February
March

.

April
May
June

...
. ..

11*5

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June

1982
January
February
March

5

263.4
262.8

6

117.28
114.94

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series arc shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
z
^IVA, inventory valuation: adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
This seri es is a weighted 4-term moving average (with
weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
beginning with data for June 1981, this series is based on copyrighted data
used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity
arch Bureau, Inc.
*See "New Features and
6
5
Average for February 3, 10, and 17.
Average for February 1 through 16, excluding weekend:
Changes for This Issue," page iii.

FEBRUARY 1982



69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Q

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Continued

L, L, L

L, t , L

81. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income'

15. Profits (after
taxes) per dollar
of sales, all
manufacturing
corporations

26. Ratio, price
to unit labor
cost, nonfarm
business sector

(Percent)

(Cents)

(1977 = 100)

U, L. L

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins—Continued
L. L, L

L, U L

lg, Lg, Lg

Lg. Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of
unit labor cost,
private business
sector

68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial
corporations

62. Index of
labor cost per
unit ©f output,
manufacturing

64. Compensation of employ
ees as a percent
of national
income

(Ann, rate,
bil.dol,)

(1977-100)

(Dollars)

(1967 100)

(Percent)

Net cash flow, corporate
34. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

!

35. Constant
(1972) dollars

lg. Lg, Lg

2

C)

1980
January . . . .
February , . .
March

5.5

5.6

96.5

280.7

155.2

127.0

1.158

182.8
184.8
186.9

74.6

April .
May ,
June ,

5.5

4.4

95.8

246.1

132.2

131.3

1.193

190.3
194.7
198.7

75. S

July
August
September . ,

5.4

4.6

96.4

262.9

138.5

133.9

1.203

200.3
200.5
199.9

75.-

October . .
November
December

5.3

4.9

96.4

272.0

141.1

rl37.1

1.230

199.7
200.3
200.6

75.4

6.4

5.0

©97.3

©282.4

i)144.7

139.4

1.244

202.8
204.1
204.8

75.2

8)6.5

H>5.1

96.9

270.5

134.6

141.6

1.266

206.5
207.5
2011.8

75.5

July
August . ,
September

6.4

p4.8

96.8

279.2

136.4

rl45.2

|H>1.295

209.2
210.8
214.0

75.3

October , .
November
December

(NA)

(NA)

P95.6

(NA)

(NA)

[H)pl50.0

(NA)

r217.9
22:.2
r223.8

(NA)

1981
January . , ,
February , ,
March
April . . .
May . . .
June . . ,

1982
January .
February ,
March . . .
April
May . . . .
June
July
August , . .
September .
October . . .
November ,
December ,
See note on page 60
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
X
2

IVA, inventory valuation adju:.stment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment,
See "New features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

70



FEBRUARY 1 9 8 2

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

JSM

Minor Economic
Process

Money

Timing Class

L, L, L

85. Change in
money supply
(Ml)

Year
and
month

MONEY AND CREDIT

L, C, U

L, L,L

102. Change
in money
supply (M2)

Smoothed
data1

(Percent)
Revised2

1980

Revised

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)
2

Revised

2

Revised

2

105. Money
supply (Ml)
in 1972
dollars

106. Money
supply (M2)
in 1972
dollars

Revised

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
(Ml)

2

Revised

2

Revised

(Ratio)
2

January
February
March

0.56
1.07
-0.05

0.89
0.96
0.40

1.10
1.11
0.52

0.57
0.78
0.91

210.2
209.7
206.9

823.6
820.9
813.2

6.504

April
May
June

-1.44
0.08
0.92

-0.38
0.94
1.35

0.36
0.60
0.65

0.79
0.58
0.52

202.1
200.5
200.4

803.1
803.7
806.5

6.536

1.11
1.90
1.20

1.55
1.20
0.70

0.79
1.19
0.77

0.61
0.78
0.90

202.5
204.8
205.1

818.4
822.0
819.2

1.09
0.48
-0.72

0.55
0.86
0.01

0.74
1.07
0.76

0.91
0.91
0.96

204.9
203.6
200.2

0.82
0.36
1.19

0.57
0.75
1.36

1.13
0.87
0.82

1.08
0.95
0.93

2.10
-0.95
-0.19

1.30
0.53
0.48

0.71
1.12
0.95

July
August
September

0.23
0.40
0.02

0.74
1.06
0.33

October
November
December

0.39
0.81
1.03

pi.75
-0.31

. .

July
August
September

,..

October
November
December

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
(M2)

(Ratio)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

Cr Lg, C

C, C, C

L.L.L

L, L, L

104. Change in total liquid assets
Monthly
data

Credit Flows

Velocity of Money

Revised 2

L.L.L

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised2

1.350
1.343
1.347

95.29
67.60
79.27

1.353
1.348

53.93
23.53
1 A no

X . JJO

l H . Us

6.496

1.339
1.334
1.341

47.74
62.21
69.98

809.7
807.7
800.0

6.567

1.361
1.363
1.375

©81.94
72.83
64.85

200.3
199,1
200.4

798.4
796.8
803.1

6.783

1.381
1.381

56.57
61.64

X . O/ 0

1 *37fi

H / . Dl

0.87
0.84
0.90

203.7
200.2
198.4

810.1
808.1
806.0

6.706

1.366
1.367
1.370

55.94
43.03
47.87

0.95
1.16
0.69

0.97
1.01
0.98

196.6
195.8
193.7

802.8
804.9
798.6

6.886

1.380
1.379
1.385

46.48
38.15
28.74

0.63
1.13
0.70

0.81
el.09
e0.61

0.91
e0.88
e0.85

193.7
194.2
195.5

800.4
805.5
808.0

6.859

1.383
1.377
1.367

24.52
p24.48
(NA)

p0.96

eO.73

e0.82

P198.3

p813.4

1981
January
February
March
April

May
June

1982
January
February
March

3

pi.356

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the tejrminal month of the span.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page iii.
3
Average for weeks ended February 3 and 10.

FEBRUARY 1982



71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ 9

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class , . .

Credit Difficulties

Credit Flows—Continued

..

L, I, L

L, L, L

112. Net change
in bank loans
to businesses
Year
and
month

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised

1980

113. Net
change in
consumer installment
credit

MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued

L, I, L

110. Total
private
borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

L, L, L

14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures ®

(Mil. dol.)

Interest Rates

Bank Reserves

L, L, L

39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, consumer installment loans

(Percent)

L, U, U

L, Lg. U

93. Free
reserves ®

94. Member
bank borrowing from the
Federal
Reserve

(Mil. dol.)

L, Lg, Lg

119. Federal
funds rate @

C Lg, Lg

114. Treasury
bill rate ©

©

(Mil. dol.)

(Pereea)t)

(Percent)

1

38.88
31.93
8.28

32.72
28.84
7.85

351,964

243.15
190.79
274.24

2.37
2.32
2.53

-999
-1,465
-2,638

1,241
1,655
2,824

13.82
14.13
17.19

12.04
12.81
15.53

6.41
-35.40
11.84

-20.05
-32.12
-24.54

192,976

428.15
381.15
436.68

2.53
2.64
2.74

-2,261
-835
-169

2,455
1,018
380

17.61
10.98
9.47

14.00
9.15
7.00

5.46
20.65
26.00

-14.39
5.87
12.66

284,i48

445.69
345.41
1,002.94

2.77
2.94
2.70

-111
-357
-1,055

395
659
1,311

9.03
9.61
10.07

8.13
9.26
10.32

25.90
[H)43.91
22.69

8.42
10.07
19.43

359.24

341,912

2.53
2.66
2.57

p-1,018
p-1,201
p-1,587

pi,335
|R>p2,156
pi,617

12.81
15.85
18.90

11.58
13.89
15.06

6.31
-7.09

10.43
23.95

2.42
2.51

1 O . 3D

©37.30

p-916
p-1,076
p-624

pi,405
pl,278
pi,004

19.08
IB. 93
14 70

14,90

-1R Qfi

341.36
789.20
485 34

April .
May
June

35.71
41.36
32.80

27.97
16.15
23.16

2.40
2.40
2.30

p-1,261

[8)349,240

536.88
428.20
488.54

B)p-2,023
p-1,488

pi,343
p2,154
p2,038

15.72
18.52
|H)19.10

13.63
[H)16,30
14,50

July
August
. .
September . . . . . .

41.10
28.34
22.93

23.45
34.31
33.83

(NA)

p317,692

B>2.2?
2.35
2.23

p-1,369
p-1,137
p-1,073

pi,751
pl,4G8
pl,473

19.04
17.82
IS.87

14.70
15.61
14.95

October . . . . . . .
November . . . . . . .
December . . . . . .

13.62
13.32
26.14

12.17
4.10
-2.08

(NA)

2.37
2.42
2.37

p-1,032
p-380
p-243

pi,149
p695
P642

IS. 08
13.31
12.37

13.87
11.27
10.93

P43.86
2
51.46

(NA)

(NA)

p-1,425
3
-l,386

pi,526
3
l,806

13.22

12.41
'•13.78

January
February .
March

,

April . . . . . . . . . . .
May
June
July .
August
September
October . . . . . . . .
November . . . .
December . . . . . . .

©239.34
288.30

1981
January . . . . . . . . .
February
March

306,492

9 R^
C, . J J

14.72
I 0 »to

1982
January .

February
March
April

,

May
June
July . .
August
September
October . . . . . . . . . .
November . . . . . . .
December . . . . . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 34.
1

Boo "New Feat ures
Average for weeks
Average for weeks
*Average for weeks
2
3

72



and Changcs for Thi s Issue," page iii.
ended February 3 and 10.
ended February 3, 10, and 17.
ended February 4, 11, IS, and 25.
FEBRUARY 1982

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q g

Minor Economic
Process

MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Interest Rates-Continued

Timing Class

Lg, Lg, Lg

Outstanding Debt

Lg, Lg, Lg

C Lg, Lg

U, Lg, Lg

116. Corporate
bond yields (§)

115. Treasury
bond yields ®

117. Municipal
bond yields (u)

118. Secondary
market yields
on FHA
mortgages @

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business loans

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

Year
and
month

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks @

66. Consumer
installment
credit

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

Lg. Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

11. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large
commercial
banks
(Mil. dol.)

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
to personal
income

Revised

1980

(Percent)

1

7.35
8.16
9.17

12.60
<NA)
14.63

15^67

14.08

10.03
11.55
11.87

15.25
15.63
18.31

306,305
308,708
309,362

159,510
162,171
162,861

14.75
14.80
14.72

April
May
June

13.36
11.61
11.12

10.83
9.82
9.40

8.63
7.59
7.63

13.45
11.99
11.85

17*75

19.77
16.57
12.63

307,691
305,014
302,969

163,395
160,445
161,432

14.64
14.43
14.24

July
August
September

11.48
12.31
12.74

9.83
10.53
10.94

8.13
8.67
8.94

12.39
13.54
14.26

1L56

11.48
11.12
12.23

301,770
302,259
303,314

161,887
163,608
165,775

13.96
13.87
13.75

October
November
December

13.17
14.10
14.38

11.20
11.83
11.89

9.11
9.56
10.20

14.38
14.47
14.08

13.79
16.06
20.35

304,016
304,855
306,474

167,933
171,592
173,483

13.61
13.50
13.46

January
February
March

14.01
14.60
14.49

11.65
12.23
12.15

9.68
10.10
10.16

14.23
14.79
15.04

20.16
19.43
18.05

307,343
309,339
312,447

174,009
173,418
171,838

13.36
13.34
13.35

April
May
June

15.00
15.68
14.97

12.62
12.96
12.39

10.62
10.78
10.67

15.91
16.33
16.31

17.15
19.61
20.03

314,778
316,124
318,054

174,814
178,261
180,994

13.37
13.35
13.34

July
August
September

15.67
16.34

13.05
13.61

16.76
17.96

20.39

©18.55

20.08

320,008
322,867
325,686

184,419
186,781
188,692

13.23
13.21
13.23

18.45
16.84
15.75

326,700
©327,042
326,869

189,827
190,937
193,115

rl3.20
rl3.12
pl3.12

15.75
*16.60

<NA)

©pl96,770
5
201,058

(NA)

January
February
March

11.65
13.23

":!!

1981

©16.97

©14.14

11.14
12.26
12.92

16.96
15.53
15.55

14.13
12.68
12.88

12.83
11.89
12.91

17.43
15.98
16.43

13.73
13.82

©13.28
3
13.06

17.38

October . . . .
November
December

19^99

Bn

:l!
17.23

fl>20.50

1982
January
February
March

2

16.37
16.52

2

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
x
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 2Average for weeks ended February 5, 12, and 19.
February 4, 11, and 18.
"Average for February 1 through 23. sAverage for weeks ended February 3 and 10.

FEBRUARY 1 9 8 2




3

Average for weeks ended

73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Year
and
month

950, Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1 , 5 , 8 , 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104,
106)

1-month
span

6-month
span

952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 70, 72, 91,
95, 109)

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

961. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (20
industries)

1-month
span

9-month
span

962. Initial claims for
State unemployment
insurance, week including the 12th l
(51 areas)

1-month
span

9-month
span

963. Number of em
ployees on private
nonagricultural payrolls
(172 industries)

1-month
span

6 month
span

C2)

1980

8.3

100.0
25.0
0.0

25.0
0.0
0.0

41.7
66.7
50.0

50.0
58.3
33.3

65.0
32.5
5.0

15.0
2.5
0.0

23.5
60.8
46.1

2.0
2.0
9.8

52,6
S3,2
49.4

40.4
33,4
30.3

16.7
45.8
41.7

0.0
0.0
25.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

66.7
33.3
33.3

41.7
50.0
33.3

70.0
22.5
25.0

15.0
7.5
20.0

3.9
33.3
70.6

19.6
3.9
7.8

34.6
32.8
31.4

26,2
28,2

75.0
100.0
91.7

25.0
75.0
100.0

50.0
100.0
100.0

41.7
33.3
33.3

33.3
33.3
50.0

25.0
92.
62.

32.5
72.5
75.0

62.
84.
13.

58.8
21.6
96.1

36.9
64^8
64.0

45.1
61.0

62.5
70.8
50.0

75.0
66.7
75.0

100.0
87.5
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

50.0
50.0
66.7

50.0
50.0
50.0

62.5
80.0
67.5

85.0
92.5
95.0

76.5
96.1
5.9

16.7
r33.3
70.8

66.7
45.8
41.7

100.0
100.0
75.0

100.0
75.0
100.0

33.3
r41.7
50.0

50.0
66.7
50.0

77,
17.
60.0

100.0
97.5
82.5

86,
39.
31.4

76.5
81.4
70.6

59.6
55.8
52.3

68.6

April
May
June . . . . . . .

75.0
16.7
45.8

37.5
r50.0
rl6.7

50.0
75.0
100.0

75.0
75.0
50.0

83.3
83.3
66.7

83.3
66.7
83.3

75.0
72.5
15.0

67.5
25.0
12.5

64.
76,
17.6

19,6
19.6
5,9

69.8
62.5
51.5

70.3
67.7
71.8

July
August
September . . .

r33.3
r54.2
rO.O

16.7
25.0
18.2

50.0
37.5
50.0

50.0
25.0
12.5

83.
66.
83.

r83.3
r66.7
66.7

40.0
55.0
15.0

12.5
rlS.O
p5.0

68.6
58.8
9.8

17.6
p9,8
(NA)

67.2
49.7
59.3

r38.7
r35.2

October
November . . .
December . . .

rZB.O

*10.0

0.0
25.0
0.0

s

January
February
March ..

41.7
29.2
33.3

0.0
16.7

April . . . . . . .
May . . . . . . .
June

12.
33.
50.0

July . . . . . . .
August
September . . .

83
83
91

October
November . . .
December . ..

61,3
63.4
56.7

73.5

1981
January
February
March

33.3
3
45.5

3

0.0

r66.7
66.7
58.3

6

75.0

62.5
rl5.0
27.5

61.8
49.0
p22.5

30.2
r27.9
r29.7

p5.0

(NA)

p31.7

SB. 6

1982
January . . . .
February . . ,
March

"30.0

5

0.0

6

62.5

April
May
June
July
August
September . , .
October
November . . .
December . . .

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the H month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the H month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a', anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
figures ace i;he percent of components declining.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page iii.
Excludes series 12, for which data are not yet available.
'•Excludes series 12 and 36, for which data are not yet available.
s
Excludes series 57, for which data are not yet available.
"Excludes series 70 and 95, for which data are not yet available.

74



FEBRUARY 1982

RCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Continued

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued

Year
and
month

964. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries) *

1-month
span

9-month
span

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
deflated (17 manufacturing industries)

1-quarter
span

4-Q moving
average

966. Index of industrial
production (24
industries)

1-month
span

6-month
span

967. Index of spot
market prices, raw
industrials @
(13 industrial materials)

1-month
span

9-month
span

968. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks2®

1-month
span

9-month
span

960. Net profits,
manufacturing 3 ©
(about 700 companies)

(4-quarter span)

1980
January
February
March

68.6
48.6
37.1

22.9
22.9
42.9

65

April
May
June

17.1
37.
45,

45.7
62.9
37.1

18

July
August
September . . .

77.1
42.9
82.9

45.7
62.9
82.9

27

October
November . . .
December . . .

71.4
57.1
58.6

85.7
88.6
82.9

53

January
February
March

45.7
42.9
52.9

85.3
70.6
73.5

50

April
May
June

65.7
50.0
50.0

52.9
44.1
29.4

65

July
August
September . . .

41.2
35.3
44.1

r29.4
r26.5
p32.4

October
November . . .
December . . ,

38.2
52.9
r47.1

70.8
20.8
41.7

25.0
16.7
12.5

50.0
73.1
61.5

"58.3
"50.0

16.7
16.7
14.6

16.7
12.5
16.7

37

39.6
70.8
66.7

39.6
47.2
77.4

56

53.8

74.1
52.8
3.8

11.5
15.4
0.0

50.0
46.2
46.2

26.
92.
89.

90.6
94.3
86.8

56

37.5
70.8
87.5

53.8
76.9
57.7

46.2
42.3
38.5

92.
88.
76.

84.9
96.2
94.3

60

95.8
95.8
95.8

65.4
53.8
46.2

61.5
65.4
65.4

43.4
55.7
15.1

90.6
88.7
86.8

64

*49

79.2
91.7
66.7

79.2
70.8
58.3

30.8
30.8
65.4

38.5
38.5
46.2

66.0
42.5
85.8

79.2
67.3
59.6

60

P 52

83.3
62.5
45.8

(NA)

56.2
62.5
45.8

54.2
58.3
45.8

69.2
26.9
38.5

46.2
46.2
53.8

81.1
30.2
67.3

59.6
44.2
42.3

P39

87.5
52.1
12.5

r31.3
r25.0
r20.8

61.5
61.5
42.3

61.5
42.3
23.1

19.2
40.4
0.0

46.2
32.7
9.6

(NA)

r20.8
16.7
rl2.5

p8.3

38.5
26.9
46.2

23.1

58.7
65.4
67.3

41

1981

5

(NA)

1982
p47.1

January
February
March

5

42.3
38.5

10.6

April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.

*Based on 35 industries through April 1981 and on 34 industries thereafter.
Based on 54 industries for January 1980, on 53 industries through May 1981, and on 52 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source.
3
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
''Based on 12 components (excluding rosin) .
5
Based on average for February 2, 9, and 16.
2

FEBRUARY 1982



75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

^ Q

a. Actual
expenditures

(1-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipatet

Actual

c. Early
anticipations

b. Later
anticipations

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade l @

972. Net profits, manufacturing
l
and t rade ©

971, New orders, manufacturing' ©

970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment (18 industries)

Year
and
quarter

DIFFUSION INDEXES--Continued

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1979
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . , ,
Third quarter . .
Fourth quarter
. . .

86.4
68.2
68.2
88.6

52.
63.
63.
47.

3
6
6

77.3
59.1
50.0
54.5

72.7
63.6
72.7
(NA)

as

7

63 .6
50 .0
68 .2
77 .3

85
81
73
78

80
84
80
72

78
74
70
72

78
82
80
70

87
84
82
82

54.
45.
36.
40.

5
5
4
9

81 .8
59 .1
81 .8
77 .3

74
63
60
60

66
75
57
62

62
54
57
56

66
73
59
61

73
62
68
66

a
o
63

72.
40.
54.
59.

7
9
5
1

70.5

68 .2
77 .3
68 .2

68
70
62

74
74
76
76

60
66
60

70
69
74
72

70
74

78
76
80

88
84
78

1980
First quarter . . .
Second quarter .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

..

72
67

1981
First quarter . . .
Second quarter .
Third quarter . .
Fourth quarter .

,.
..

(NA)

(NA)

71

ao

(NA)

1982
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

60

59 . 1

65

54

. . .

| M

Year
and
quarter

974. Number o employees,
manufacturing and t r a d e 1 ®

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade' ©

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

DIFFUSION NDEXES—Continued
976. Selling prices, manu
facturing' ©

977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade' ©

978, Selling prices, retail

Actua

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

[4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

trade ' ®
Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1979
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

62
60
60

58

60
60
58
56

80

54
56
48
50

67
61

56
54
56
55

62
64
62

76
73
75

70
74
71
68

92
93
92
94

86
88
88
86

96
95
95
96

88
9C
92

62
70
53
56

on

P7

no

o/

vc
90
92

Qf

88

yu
92
87

90

88

90
88
84

90
89
89
84

90

94
95

90

94
96

92
90

91
94
90

84
90

qg

1980
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

58
54

....

53
51

64
60

90
90

90
83
86

vu
93

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . .

51
53
52
(NA)

(NA)

63
61
66
64

88
86
84
(NA)

88
90
89
84

(NA)

94
90
86
(NA)

90
90
9?,
87

1982
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

50

54

80

82

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated b y © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", nit available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
x
This :is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun l\ Bradstreet, Inc.
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

76



FEBRUARY 1982

Dun !)

ItUI

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change

Diffusion index components

1981
July

June

August

1982

September

October

November

January!3

December

961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(Average weekly hours)

All manufacturing industries

40.1

40.0

40.0

39.3

39.5

39.3

39.0

36.9

Percent rising of 20 components ,

(15)

(40)

(55)

(15)

(62)

(15)

(28)

(5)

Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

39.0
38.9

38.8
38.5

38.6
38.6

37.3
37.5

37.6
38.1

37.5
r37.7

37.8
37.6

34.6
32.8

Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries

40.8
40.8

40.9
40.5

40.8
40.7

40.
40.

40.0
39.8

r40.0
r39.7

39,
39,

38.0
38.0

Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical

40.7
41.1

40.5
41.1

40.5
41.2

39.
40.

40.0
40.7

39.6
40.6

39.3
40.3

37.9
39.0

Electric and electronic equipment ..
Transportation equipment

40.2
41.4

40.5
41.2

40.4
41.3

39.6
39.9

39.9
40.5

39.3
40.3

39.3
39.4

37.6
37.5

Instruments and related products ..
Miscellaneous manufacturing

40.4
39.1

40.5
39.2

40.8
39.1

40.5
38.4

40.4
39.0

40.3
39.0

39.7
38.4

38.0
36.7

Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturer:;

39.8
38.5

39.4
38.6

39.4
40.7

39.2
40.2

39.5
39.4

r39.6
38.8

39.7
38.1

39.0
35.6

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

40.2
36.1

40.4
35.9

40.3
36.1

38.9
35.2

39.3
35.7

r38.8
35.6

38.2
35.1

30.7
29.9

Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing ...

42.7
37.4

42.7
37.3

42.7
37.3

43.1
37.1

42.4
37.1

41.9
36.9

41.8
37.3

40.8
36.4

Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and coal products ..

41.7
43.4

41.8
43.1

41.7
42.8

42.
43.

41.5
42.1

41.3
42.3

41.5
42.7

40.4
45.2

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products .
Leather and leather products

41.0
37.4

40.5
36.5

40.6
36.9

39.6
36.1

40.0
36.8

r39.6
r36.7

39.3
36.1

37.2
35.1

Durable goods industries:

Nondurable goods industries:

964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES '
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

+

Percent rising of 34 components .

88,303

+

(50)

89,696

87,350

86,278

77,804

r79,956

79,764

78,543

(41)

(35)

(44)

(38)

(53)

(47)

(47)

12,466
10,804

11,602
9,901

+

11,422
10,054

-

10,170
9,282

10,032
9,262

+

9,378
9,270

9,235
8,800

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products..

+

11,324
10,979

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery

+
+

17,303
12,600

-

16,376
12,055

17,658
11,920

+

17,498
12,487

-

15,984
10,370

rl7,472
11,873

+
-

17,605
11,650

-

15,444
11,597

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries.

+

19,057
17,040

+
+

20,909
17,086

20,375
15,894

+

18,627
16,190

+

15,780
16,218

15,429
15,888

+
-

16,071
15,790

+
-

17,877
15,590

+

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( —) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p"
preliminary; and "NA", not available,
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.

FEBRUARY 1982



77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED OlFFUStON INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Continued

Diffusion index components

1982

1981

July

June

August

September

Octoberr

November1"

Decemberr

Janua ryp

149.1

146.4

143.4

L39,1

(21)

(17)

(12)

(8)

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1967-100)

+

152.9

153.9

153.6

(46)

(88)

(52)

Lumber and products.
Furniture and fixtures

122.5
162.4

122.9
164.9

119.1
163.3

113.2
159.9

109.6
157.2

104.8
154.5

101.8
150.8

(NA)
(NA)

Clay, glass, and stone products..
Primary metals

148.1
107.4

148.7
109.4

148.2
113.1

147.3
108.6

143.4
102.3

135.8
96.7

133.4
88.8

(NA)
83.0

Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery...

139.3
174.1

140.1
176.7

140.0
176.4

136.8
173.9

133.8
169.7

130
167

126.6
164.8

121.2
160.0

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

180.1
123.4

180.9
119.8

182.6
115.4

180.0
114.2

179.6
110.6

176.3
106.1

172.2
103.6

168.3
97.3

Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures .

171.3
158.8

172.1
159.4

172.3
158.6

169.7
154.2

168.6
151.5

167.2
151.7

164.0
149.0

159.0
142.3

Foods
Tobacco products ,

151.3
120.9

151.6
121.3

151.9
123.8

150.7
122.4

151.4
124.3

152.7
124.4

152.0
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

Textile mill prDducts
Apparel products

138.3
121.1

139.4
122.6

140.7
122.6

136.3
122.5

132.4
117.8

126.3
114.4

123.2
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

Paper and products
Printing and publishing

153.4
143.1

154.9
144.4

156.7
146.1

158.6
145.9

153.3
145.6

152.3
144.7

146.1
146.3

142.9
143.7

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products

218.4
129.3

221.5
128.7

219.2
130.4

216.3
129.1

208.8
128.3

205.2
128.2

198.8
128.9

(NA)
125.0

Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products

285.1
68.4

285.3
70.1

286.7
69.6

282.2
69.7

+

276.0
71.2

263.5
70.8

252.0
66.5

Metal mining .
Coal. . . . . . . .

123.5
122.9

123.6
170.0

124.1
167.4

121.5
161.9

+

119.8
166.9

114.8
160.8

109.4
145.5

(NA)
144./

Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals ,

148.2
132.7

147.7
133.3

148.2
128.2

148.8
123.4

+

148.9

149.1
116.7

150.3
114.2

150.9
(NA)

All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components

2

.,

+

151.6

Durable manufactures:

Nondurable manufactures:

+
+

+
+

(NA)
(NA)

Mining:

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ; - rising, (o) - unchanged, and ( - ) = falling,
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
'Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

78



The "r" indicates revised;

FEBRUARY 1982

u

p"

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

^ J

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued

Diffusion index components

1981
June

July

August

1982
October

September

November

December

Februaryl

January

?
96 1. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS

282.9

Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) ....

+

(38)

Percent rising of 13 components

286.6

+

(62)

289.5

-

(62)

283.0

-

(42)

277.2

-

(38)

270.5

-

(27)

264.2

-

(46)

263.4

-

(42)

262.8
(38)

Dollars

Copper scrap .

..

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

0.646
1.424

-

0.635
1.400

+

0.650
1.433

-

0.620
1.367

-

0.609
1.343

-

0.591
1.303

-

0.578
1.274

-

0.572
1.261

-

0.567
1.250

+

0.292
0.644

-

0.271
0.597

-

0.247
0.545

-

0.221
0.487

-

0.180
0.397

-

0.168
0.370

+

0.180
0.397

+ 102.000
112.435

-

98.000
108.025

-

88.500
97.554

-

80.000
88.184

+

81.600
89.948

+

88.000
97.002

-

84.000
92.593

Lead scrap

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.250
0.551

+

0.269
0.593

Steel scrap

(U.S. ton),.
(metricton),,

-

93.800
103.396

+

95.750
105.545

Tin

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

-

5.796
12.778

+

6.030
13.294

+

6.528
14.392

+

6.746
14.872

+

6.820
15.035

+

7.040
15.520

+

7.120
15.697

+

7.200
15.873

+

7.320
16.138

Zinc

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

o

0.463
1.021

+

0.466
1.027

+

0.495
1.091

+

0.499
1.100

-

0.479
1.056

0

0.479
1.056

-

0.451
0.994

-

0.433
0.955

+

0.435
0.959

Burlap

(yard).,
(meter)..

-

0.251
0.274

-

0.246
0.269

-

0.243
0.266

+

0.246
0.269

-

0.242
0.265

-

0.238
0.260

-

0.229
0.250

+

0.233
0.255

+

0.235
0.257

Cotton

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.790
1.742

-

0.751
1.656

-

0.669
1.475

-

0.609
1.343

-

0.608
1.340

-

0.574
1.265

-

0.553
1.219

+

0.577
1.272

-

0.570
1.257

Print cloth

(yard)..
(meter)..

-

0.820
0.897

+

0.822
0.899

+

0.845
0.924

o

0.845
0.924

-

0.820
0.897

-

0.780
0.853

-

0.734
0.803

-

0.710
0.776

-

0.703
0.769

Wool tops

(pound)
(kilogram)..

0

3.600
7.937

o

3.600
7.937

o

3.600
7.937

+

3.630
8.003

3.600
7.937

o

3.600
7.937

o

3.600
7.937

Hides

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

-

0.458
1.010

+

0.472
1.041

+

0.474
1.045

+

0.486
1.071

+

0.525
1.157

+

0.558
1.230

+

0.584
1.287

+

0.590
1.301

o

0.590
1.301

Rosin

(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..

+

46.500
102.514

o

46.500
102.514

o

46.500
102.514

-

46.100
101.632

+

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

o

47.000
103.616

Rubber

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

-

0.584
1.287

-

0.554
1.221

-

0.538
1.186

-

0.450
0.992

+

0.464
1.023

-

0.462
1.019

+

0.484
1.067

-

0.483
1.065

-

0.469
1.034

Tallow

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.178
0.392

+

0.192
0.423

0.190
0.419

-

0.187
0.412

+

0.190
0.419

-

0.179
0.395

+

0.180
0.397

-

0.167
0.368

-

0.159
0.351

3.550
7.826

3.580
7.892

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and ( - ) = falling, The "r" indicates revised; "p"
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for February 2, 9, and 16.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

FEBRUARY 1982



79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME

Year
and
quarter

a. Total

b. Difference

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)

217. Per capita
GNP in 1972
dollars

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars

b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

213. final sales
in Wt dollars

(Ann. rate,
foil, do-.)

1979
First quarter . .
Second quarter
TNtrd quarter ,
Fourth quarter

2,340.6
2,374.6
2,444.1
2,496.3

68.7
34.0
69.5
52.2

12.7
5.9
12.2
8.8

1,479.9
1,473.4
1,488.2
1,490.6

14.1
-6.5
14.8
2.4

3.9
-1.7
4.1
0.6

6,602
5,602
6,592

1,464.4
1,455.0
1,480.6
1,491.3

2,571.7
2,564.8
2,637.3
2,730.6

75.4
-6.9
72.5
93.3

12.6
-1.1
11.8
14.9

1,501.9
1,463.3
1,471.9
1,485.6

11.3
-38.6
8.6
13.7

3.1
»9.9
2.4
3.8

6.6K4
6,437
Mb6
6,499

1,502.8
1,462.0
1,476.9
1,492.7

2,853.0
2,885.8
2,965.0
r2,995.3

122.4
32.8
79.2
r30.3

19.2
4.7
11.4
r4.1

1,516.4
1,510.4
1,515.8

30.8
-6.0
5.4
r-18.2

8.6
-1.6
1.4

6,620
6,590
6.5H6
r(i,490

1,517.8
1,499.6
1,500.9
rl,491.4

1980
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

1981
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

rl,497.6

1982
First quarter , .
Second quarter
Third quarter ,
Fourth quarter

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME -Continued

Vear
find
quarter

230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars

225. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

231. Total in 1972
dollars

232. Durable pods
in current dollars

233. Durable goods
in 1972 dollars

227. Per capita in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)}

(Am. rate,
bil. dol.)

1979
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

1,580.2
1,612.8
1,663.8
1,710.1

1,005.7
1,006.9
1,015.7
1,017.7

4,487
4,480
4,506
4,501

1,478.0
1,529.1
1,562.3

925.5
922.8
933.4
941.6

207.4
213.3
216.1

149.0
144.2
146.7
146.0

1,765.1
1,784.1
1,840.6
1,897.0

1,021.0
1,008.2
1,018.5
1,025.8

4,503
4,435
4,468
4,488

1,631.0
1,626.8
1,682.2
1,751.0

943.4
919.3
930.8
946.8

220.9
194.4
208.8
223.3

145.4
126.2
13;?. 6
139.1

1,947.8
1,985.6
2,042.0
r2,Q87.9

1,033.3
1,036.8
1,043.6
rl,047.3

4,511
4,517
4,535
r4,539

1,810.1
1,829.1
1,883.9
r1,908.4

960.2
955.1
962.8
r957.2

238.3
22/.3
236.2
2268

146.8
137.4
140.3
l332

1980
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

1981
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

1982
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.




FEBRUARY 1982

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

j Q
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

i

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued
238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

237. Services in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Q |

239. Services in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

241. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

242. Fixed investment, total, in
current dollars

243. Fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1979
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

571.8
586.4
611.5
639.2

351.1
350.6
355.4
361.3

669.9
684.2
704.3
727.0

424.8
428.0
431.3
434.3

408.3
423.2
421.7
410.0

237.7
238.7
232.6
221.5

384.0
390.1
408.3
410.8

222.3
220.4
225.0
222.2

661.1
664.0
674.2
703.5

361.5
356.6
354.9
360.4

749.0
768.4
799.2
824.2

436.5
436.5
443.3
447.3

415.6
390.9
377.1
397.7

218.3
200.5
195.3
200.5

413.1
383.5
393.2
415.1

219.2
199.2
200.2
207.6

726.0
735.3
751.3
r759.3

364.5
367.0
368.8
r368.2

845.8
866.5
896.4
922.2

448.9
450.7
453.7
r455.8

437.1
458.6
463.0
r443.9

211.6
219.7
221.5
r207.2

432.7
435.3
435.6
r431.3

213.1
208.9
206.5
r201.0

1980
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1982
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....
• •
GROSS PRIVATE
M i l DOMESTIC INVEST—Con245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

P I
260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollar:

263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

267. State and
local government
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1979
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

24.3
33.1
13.3
-0.8

15.4
18.4
7.6
-0.7

458.2
465.1
475.4
496.4

280.6
280.3
281.1
285.3

164.8
163.6
165.1
178.1

102.9
100.8
99.9
103.1

293.4
301.6
310.4
318.3

177.7
179.4
181.2
182.2

2.5
7.4
-16.0
-17.4

-0.9
1.3
-5.0
-7.2

516.8
530.0
533.5
558.6

290.1
291.9
288.2
289.8

190.0
198.7
194.9
212.0

107.6
110.7
106.9
107.4

326.8
331.3
338.6
346.6

182.5
181.2
181.3
182.4

4.5
23.3
27.5
rl2.6

-1.4
10.8
14.9
r6.2

576.5
577.4
588.9
r622.2

293.6
289.5
288.3
r295.6

221.6
219.5
226.4
r253.6

111.2
108.7
109.6
rl!6.9

354.9
357.9
362.5
r368,6

182.5
180.7
178.8
178.8

1980
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1982
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series art; shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.

FEBRUARY 1982



81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Continued

Q

Year
and
quarter

255. Constant
(1972) dollars

?53. Current
collars

256. Constant
(1972) dollars

252. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

Imports of goods and services

Exports of goods and services

Net exports of goods and services
250. Current
dollars

P 9
WM

FOREIGN TRADE

220. National income in current
dollars

280, Compen
sation of
employees

257. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

19.9
8.2
17.9
7.6

36,0
31,6
41.1
42.2

259.1
266.8
293.1
306.3

141.1
140.5
151.3
154.8

239.2
258.6
275.2
298.7

105.1
108.8
110.2
112.6

1,903.6
1,932.0
1,986.2
?,031.3

1,409,9
1,439.0
1,476.7
1,518.1

8.2
17.1
44.5
23.3

50.1
51.7
57.6
48,5

337.3
333.3
342.4
346.1

165.9
160.5
160.5
157.4

329.1
316.2
297.9
322.7

115,8
108.9
102,8
108.9

2,088.5
2,070.0
2,122.4
2,204.8

1,558.0
1,569.0
1,597.4
1,661.0

29.2
20.8
29.3
r20.8

50.9
46,2
43.2
r37.5

367.4
368.2
368.0
r358.9

162.5
161.5
160.1
rl54.2

338.2
347.5
338.7
r338.2

111.6
115,4
116.9
rll6.7

2,391,1
2,320.9
2,377.6
(NA)

IJ22A
1,752.0
1,790.7
r1,820.9

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Mm
Vear
und
quarter

282. Proprietors'
income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Q j SAVING

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued
284. Rental income
of persons with
capital consumption adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

286. Corporate
profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

288. Net interest

(Ann. rati,
bil. dol.)

290. Gross saving
(private and government)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

295. Business
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

292, Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

127.8
129.4
132.9
136.3

30.7
30.1
30.3
31.0

201.9
196.6
199.5
189.4

133.4
136.9
146.8
156.5

407.4
416.2
422.3
402.0

304,4
310.3
320.5
315.7

83.8
90.9
89.3
80.7

133.7
124.9
129.7
134.0

31.2
31.5
32.0
32.4

200.2
169.3
177.9
183.3

165.4
175.3
185.3
193.3

404.5
394.5
402.0
406.7

326.7
325.8
334.6
339.3

86.4
110.0
111.4
97.6

132,1
134.1
137.1
rl35.2

32,7
33.3
33,9
34.5

203.0
190.3
195.7
<NA)

200.8
211.0
220.2
r223.0

442.6
465.3
469.4
(NA)

362.2
368.7
379.3
(NA)

88.9
106.6
106.9
rl26.7

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . .
Third quarter . .
Fourth quarter . . ,
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . .
Fourth quarter . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these scries are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.

82



FEBRUARY 1982

IICII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q
298. Government
surplus or deficit,
total

Year
and
quarter

Q |

SAVING—Continued

(Ann. rate,
bii. dol.)

293. Personal
saving rate
(percent of disposable personal
income)

" Percent oi gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total
(Percent)

(Percent)

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment

249. Residential
fixed investment
(Percent)

(Percent)

247. Change in
business inventories

251. Net exports of

(Percent)

(Percent)

goods and services

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

18.1
13.9
11.3
4.4

5.3
5.6
5.4
4.7

62.1
62.2
62.6
63.4

11.4
11.5
11.8
11.6

5.0
4.9
4.9
4.8

1.0
1.4
0.5
0.0

0.9
0.3
0.7
0.3

-9.6
-42.5
-45.6
-30.8

4.9
6.2
6.1
5.1

63.4
63.4
63.8
64.1

11.6
11.3
11.1
11.1

4.5
3.6
3.8
4.1

0.1
0.3
-0.6

-0.6

0.3
0.7
1.7
0.9

-9.7
-11.2
-17.9
(NA)

4.6
5.4
5.2
r6.1

63.4
63.4
63.5

11.1
11.2
11.3

4.1
3.8
3.4
3.1

0.2
0.8
0.9
r0.4

1.0
0.7
1.0
r0.7

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

r63.7

rll.3

1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
J J
Year
and
quarter

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL tNCOME—Continued

Percent of GNP-Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services

Percent of national income

268. State and local

government purchases
of goods and services
(Percent)

(Percent)

64. Compensation of
employees

(Percent)

283. Proprietors'
income with* IVA
and CCAdj'

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj >

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

287. Corporate
profits with IVA
and CCAdj'

289. Net interest

(Percent)

1979

....

7.0
6.9
6.8
7.1

12.5
12.7
12.7
12.8

74.1
74.5
74.3
74.7

6.7
6.7
6.7
6.7

1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5

10.6
10.2
10.0
9.3

7.0
7.1
7.4
7.7

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

7.4
7.7
7.4
7.8

12.7
12.9
12.8
12.7

74.6
75.8
75.3
75.4

6.4
6.0
6.1
6.1

1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5

9.6
8.2
8.4
8.3

7.9
8.5
8.7
8.8

7.8
7.6
7.6
r8.5

12.4
12.4
12.2
rl2.3

75.2
75.5
75.3
(NA)

5.8
5.8
5.8
(NA)

1.4
1.4
1.4
(NA)

8.9
8.2
8.2
(NA)

8.8
9.1
9.3
(NA)

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1980

1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
HVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

FEBRUARY 1982



83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Q
Implicit price deflator,
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1972 100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

(Ann, rate,
percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product
311. Index

(1972-100)

311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

320. Index ®

320c. Change
over l»month
spans '

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans !

(1967-100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

C)

Revised8

1980
10.1

9.3

January . ,
February . .
March . . . . . . . . . .

171.2

April .
May
June

175.3

July . .
August
September

179.2

October
November . . .
December

183! 8

178.2

ish'j

10.7

1.4

rl.2
rl.4

Tl'k, Change
over 1-month
spaos;

Pit, Chaise
over 6-tmmth
spansl

(1967-100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised 8

Krvisod 8

Revised*

15.5
15.0
14.5

244.5
244.9
246.9

0.4
0.2
0.8

7.7
7.9
6.8

7.7

0.9

0.9
1.0

11.6
10.4
9.6

248.6
250.4
251.7

0.7
0.7
0.5

10.8

9.6

247.8
249.4
251.7

0.1
r0.7
1.0

10.0
10.3
10.3

253.7
257.8
261.5

0.8
1.6
1.4

IX.5
13.4
13.5

9.3

253.9
256.2
258 4

rl.l
1.1
1.0

11.8
12.4
11.4

263.7
266.6
268.2

0.8
1.1
0.6

12.7
10.5
8.0

10.5

260.5
263.2
265.1

rO.S
1.0
0.6

10.0
9.3
8.8

269.3
271.0
271.7

0.4
0.6
0.3

6.6
4.6
3.8

8.2

266.8
269.0

0.4
r0.8
07

9.6
9.3
10 4

272.3
272.6
273 2

0.2
0.1
0 2

4.3
4.1
49

182.4 *

9.2

233.2
236.4
239.8

322. Index

242.5
244.9
247.6

9.8

9.8

Gansumor prices, food

Consumer prices, all i terns

190.9

Vl.t

1981
January , .
February . . . . . . .
March . . . . . . .

188! 1

April .
May
June

191 * I

July
August
September . . . . . . .

i9s!e

9.8
195!?
6.4
199^5

071

October . . . . .
November
December

9.9

.

9.9

274.4
276.5
279 3

rl.l
0.8
rl 1

10.5
9.8
9 1

275.0
276.5
270 3

0.7
0.5
0 7

5.0
5.0
41

r7.3

279.9
280.7
281.5

0.4
0.5
0.4

7,2

279.0
279.3
279.5

0.3
0.1
0.1

4.a

282.5

0.3

281.5

0.7

204! 3
r9.3

r206!6

rZQB.Q

-3

1982
January . . . . . . . . .
February . .
March . . . . . .
April .
........
May . , . . . . . . . .
June . . . . . . . . .
July
August
September . . . . . . .
October
November
December
See note on page 80,
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
Changes arc centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes arc placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
2
Seo "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




FEBRUARY 1982

KCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

H U
Producer prices, all commodities
Year
and
month

330. Index (u)

(1967 = 100)

330c. Change
over 1-month
spansl @

(Percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued

Producer f rices, industrial commodities

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans' @

(Ann. rate,
percent)

335. Index

©

(1967 = 100)

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans1 @

(Percent)

Producer prices, crude materials

335c. Change
over 6-month
]

spans

331. Index

©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1980

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans '

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans *

(1967-100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

January
February
March

254.9
260.2
261.9

2.1
2.1
0.7

14.5
14.2
13.1

260.6
265.9
268.6

3.0
2.0
1.0

18.7
17.7
16.8

289.0
295.1
289.0

0.0
2.1
-2.1

0.5
0.9
0.1

April
June

262.8
264.2
265.6

0.3
0.5
0.5

12.5
10.7
9.9

271.3
271.9
273.5

1.0 •
0.2
0.6

12.3
9.5
7.7

283.2
287.5
289.2

-2.0
1.5
0.6

10.6
16.3
22.8

July
August
September . .•

270.4
273.8
274.6

1.8
1.3
0.3

11.7
11.6
11.8

276.2
278.2
278.8

1.0
0.7
0.2

8.0
8.6
9.8

304.0
318.2
320.3

5.1
4.7
0.7

32.1
31.0
26.8

October
November
December

277.8
279.1
280.8

1.2
0.5
0.6

10.9
10.3
11.8

282.0
283.4
286.6

1.1
0.5
1.1

11.4
13.0
15.5

325.5
329.0
325.7

1.6
1.1
-1.0

17.2
8.9
5.1

January
February
March

284.8
287.6
290.3

1.4
1.0
0.9

11.5
11.0
10.2

291.5
295.7
299.6

1.7
1.4
1.3

15.8
15.6
13.3

329.1
332.1
328.4

1.0
0.9
-1.1

4.8
2.9
7.0

April
May
June

293.4
294.1
294.8

1.1
0.2
0.2

8.2
6.2
r3.8

303.5
304.7
305.1

1.3
0.4
0.1

10.3
7.9
r5.3

333.2
333.7
336.9

1.5
0.2
1.0

5.2
1.4
0.0

July
August
September

296.2
296.4
r295.7

0.5
0.1

1.8
1.0
0.7

306.2
307.2
r307.4

0.4
0.3
rO.l

3.5
2.9
3.3

337.6
334.4
328.4

0.2
-0.9
-1.8

-6.0
-9.1
-13.2

October
November
December

296.0
295.5
295.9

rO.l
-0.2
0.1

1.4

308.8
309.1
310.1

0.5
0.1
0.3

3.6

323.1
318.2
313.8

-1.6
-1.5
-1.4

-10.6

298.2

0.8

311.7

0.5

319.2

2.1

May

1981

r-0.2

1982
January
February
March
April

May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-m|onth changes are placed on the 4th month.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

ItCII FEBRUARY 1982



85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q j

332. Index

1980

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

Producer prices, finished consumer goods

Producer prices, capital equipment

Producer prices, intermediate materials
Year
and
month

PRICE MOVEMKNTS-Continued

332c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

333. Index

333c. Chaige
over 1-month
spans'

333c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

334, Index

334c. Change
over1 1-month
spans3

334c. Change
over 6-montii
spans •

(1967-100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967-100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised 2

Revised2

Revised 2

Revised 2

RevisoU2

Revised' 1 '

January
February
March

267.1
272.0
273.9

2,5
1.8
0,7

15.0
14.3
14.2

228.2
230.0
232.1

0.8
0.9

13.1
12.2
11.9

235.9
239.4
242.1

1.7
1,5
1.1

15.6
12,9
33.1

April
May
June

274.2
276.0
278.5

0.1
0.7
0.9

10.8
9.0
8.5

235.6
236.3
238.1

1.5
0.3
0.8

11.4
11.9
10.5

243.5
244.4
246.6

0.6

0.4
0,9

13.2
12,9
10,8

281.1
284.0
285.3

0.9
1.0
0.5

10.2
10.7
11.0

240.9
243.3
244 0

1.2
1.0
0 3

11.0
11.6
11.0

251.0
254.4
254 8

1.8
1.4
0 ?

11.3
12.0
10 8

287.9
290.4
293.4

0.9
0.9
1.0

11.7
10.4
11.7

248.2
249.6
250.9

1.7
0.6
0.5

U.O
10.7
11.7

256.9
258.7
259.6

0.8
0.7
0.3

9.S
8.2
10.5

January
February
March . . .

297.1
298.4
301.5

1.3
0.4
1.0

11.6
10.8
9.4

253.8
256.0
257.9

1.2
0.9
0.7

9.9
10.2
10.8

262.7
264.6
267.8

1.2
0.7
1.2

10.8
9.4
9.8

April
May
June

304.1
305.7
306.9

0.9
0.5
0.4

7.5
7.7
5.6

260.2
262.0
264.1

0.9
0.7
0.8

9.5
9.1
7.8

270.4
270.6
272.0

1.0
0.1
0.5

7.9
6.7
4.6

July
August
September

308.1
309.7
309.8

0.4
0.5
0.0

3.7
3.2
2.9

265.6
267.4
267.8

0.6
0.7
0.1

8.0
8.2
7.7

272.9
273.3
273.9

0,3
0.1
Q.Z

3.4
4.1
3.4

October
November
December

309.7
310.6
311.3

0.0
0.3
0 Z

2.8

270.4
272.5
274 1

1.0
0.8
0 6

7.4

274.9
276.1
?76 6

0.4
0.4
0 2

3.7

312.4

0.4

275.2

0.4

277.9

0.5

, , ..

July
August ,
September
October
November
December

.......
.,,,...

1.4

1981

1982
January
February
March

....,,..
...

April ,
May
June
July
August
September . .
October . . .
November
December

...

...
...
...

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changos are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
a
See "Now Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

86



FEBRUARY 1982

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

•

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adjustet
Year
and
month

Real earnings

Current-dollar earnings
340. Index

(1977 = 100)

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector

1

340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341. Index

(1977 = 100)

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

Current-dollar compensation
341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345. Index

(1977 = 100)

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345c. Change

over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

1980

121.7
122.8
124.1

0.3
0.9
1.1

9.6
9.4
9.5

94.3
93.9
93.7

-1.0
-0.4
-0.2

-5.0
-4.6
-3.9

125^7

April
May
June

124.7
125.8
127.0

0.5
0.9
1.0

10.0
9.9
8.7

93.3
93.4
93.4

-0.4
0.1
0.0

-1.0
-0.1
-0.9

129*1

July
August
September

127.6
128.7
129.4

0.5
0.9
0.5

9.8
10.4
9.1

93.8
93.9
93.3

0.4
0.1
-0.6

-0.2
-0.3
-1.6

132! 6

October
November
December

130.6
132.1
132.6

0.9
1.1
0.4

9.9
9.9
10.2

93.2
93.2
92.7

-0.1

0.0
-0.5

-2.2
-2.5
-1.1

135! i

January
February
March , ,

133.8
135.0
135.8

0.9
0.9

92.8
92.7
92.8

0.1
-0.1
0.1

-0.4
-0.4
0.6

138^8

0.6

9.5
8.6
8.9

April
May
June

136.7
137.7
138.4

0.7
0.7
0.5

7.9
8.7
8.5

93.0
93.1
92.9

0.2
0.1
-0.2

-1.2
0.0
-1.5

142.6

July
August
September

139.0
140.7
141.5

0.4
1.2
0.6

7.7
r8.2
r7.2

92.2
92.7
92.1

-0.8
0.5
-0.6

-2.2
r-1.4
r-1.7

rl45.*4

October
November
December

141.9
143.2
143.3

0.3
0.9
0.1

p8.5

92.0
r92.5
r92.1

-0.1
rO.5
r-0.4

pi.5

P144.8

pl.O

p92.9

p0.9

January
February
March

.., .

10.0

11.5

9.1

16! i
io!i

9.7
9^9

1981
11.5

16! i

9.5
P 9.*3

9.7

p6.6
pl47^7

1982
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-mon|th changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.

ItCII FEBRUARY 1982



87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

1 9 WAGES
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector-Continued
Year
and
month

Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries ©
348. First year
average changes

Real compensation
346. Index

(1977-100)

346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)

AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

346c, Change
over 4-quarter
spans'
(Ann, rate,
percent)

349. Aveiage
changes fiver
life of
contract

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

8.8

6.7

Output )er hour, all persons , private
business sector
370. Index

(1977-100)

358. Index of
output per hoir,

370c, Change
over 1-quarter
spans '

370c. Change
aver 4 quarter
spans l

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ant; rate,
percent)

all persons,
nonfarm
business sedor

(1977-100)

1980
Janusry
February
March

96^2

April . . !
May
June

95^8

July
August .
September

96,1

October
November
December . . .

9S'A

-5.6

10.2

-1.5

7.4

11.4

7.2

-6.*8
-2.8

6!2

-1.8

99! i

-2.2
1.2

1.6
99^5

-2^6

1.3

9<M
8.5

6.1

99! i

-1.1

6.0

98^9

6!6
ro.'a

99^6

i'.i

1981
January
February
March .

95-5

April
May
June

96.*6

O.I

,. ,

-6! 6
2.3

July
August
September . . . . . . .

r95*.6

October . . . . . . . .
November
December

p95.'i

p-6*2
r-1.9

rlO.5

r9.4

H.7
loois

rll.6

rl0.8

3.5
rlOl "2

rl2.3

r9.3

i'.s

106! 6

p-6.*i

loo.'i

r-1.1
99^9

100^9

p-1.1

pll.l

p5.6

p-7.2
p99.*0

P98.0

1982
January . . .
February . . . . . . .
March . . . . . . . . .
April . . . . . . .
May
June

...

July
August . . . . . . . .
September . . . . . .
October
November
December

.......

See note on pagu 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
x
Changes art centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are placed
on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




FEBRUARY 1982

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

D

| CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE ANDMAJOR COMPONENTS

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

442. Employed

441. Total

Labor 1orce participation rates

Number unemployed

451. Males
20 years
and over

452. Females
20 years
and over

453. Both
sexes, 1619
years of age

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

1

Revised1

Revised1

Revised 1

Revised 1

January
February
March

106,493
106,548
106,321

99,833
99,913
99,607

79.6
79.7
79.4

51.3
51.2
51.1

April
May
June

106,482
107,022
106,809

99,112
98,963
98,785

79.4
79.7
79.3

July
August
September

107,221
107,159
107,232

98,891
98,920
99,208

October
November
December

107,437
107,600
107,531

(Thous.)

37. Total

(Thous.)

448. Number employed
part-time
for economic
reasons

444. Males
20 years
and over

445. Females
20 years
and over

446. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

Revised 1

Revised 1

Revised1

447. Fulltime
workers

Revised 1

Revised 1

57.6
57.1
57.0

6,660
6,635
6,714

2,722
2,682
2,826

2,370
2,383
2,351

1,568
1,570
1,537

5,276
5,241
5,397

3,567
3,539
3,531

51.3
51.3
51.3

55.9
57.3
56.8

7,370
8,059
8,024

3,276
3,630
3,644

2,578
2,640
2,653

1,516
1,789
1,727

5,987
6,568
6,666

3,943
4,397
4,172

79.4
79.4
79 3

51.4
51.5
51 3

57.4
55.7
56 5

8,330
8,239
8 024

3,772
3,731
3 756

2,739
2,751
2 588

1,819
1,757
1 fiftn

6,908
6,833
c 700

4,243
4,315
4,312

99,328
99,534
99,632

79.3
79.3
79 2

51.4
51.5
51 4

56.6
56.2
56 1

8,109
8,066
7 899

3,607
3,595
3 476

2,784
2,767
2 783

1,718
1,704
1 fi40

6,709
6,747

4,236
4,222

fi fi1 7

A. 1 Q l

107,923
108,034
108,364

99,901
100,069
100,406

79.1
79.0
79.2

51.7
51.8
52.0

56.6
56.5
56.2

8,022
7,965
7,958

3,461
3,433
3,410

2,804
2,763
2,787

1,757
1,769
1,761

6,611
6,537
6,553

4,451
4,227
4,290

108,777
109,293
108,434

100,878
101,045
100,430

79.2
79.6
78.9

52.1
52.4
52.3

57.0
56.6
53.9

7,899
8,248
8,004

3,337
3,595
3,497

2,796
2,871
2,824

1,766
1,782
1,683

6,442
6,631
6,577

4,200
4,264
4,033

July
August
September

108,688
108,818
108,494

100,864
100,840
100,258

78.9
78.9
78.8

52.3
52.2
51.8

54.5
55.1
55.1

7,824
7,978
8,236

3,298
3,459
3,569

2,872
2,825
2,918

1,654
1,694
1,749

6,365
6,400
6,757

4,374
4,350
4 656

October
November
December

109,012
109,272
109,184

100,343
100,172
99,613

78.8
78.8
79.0

52.3
52.4
52.2

54.8
55.0
54.0

8,669
9,100
9,571

3,851
4,105
4,543

3,017
3,109
3,175

1,801
1,886
1,853

7,204
7,545
8,127

5,009
5,026
5,288

108,879

99,581

78.5

52.1

54.2

9,298

4,322

3,104

1,872

7,805

5,071

Revised

1980

Revised 1

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June

.

.,

1982

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 5 1 .
;

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page

FEBRUARY 1982



OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Q |
Federal Governmen
Year
and
month

Q

RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES

1

State and local governments'

Advance measures of defense activity

500. Surplus
or deficit

501, Receipts

502. Expenditures

510. Surplus
or deficit

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

(Ann, rate,
bil. do!)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

-36.3

April .
May
June .

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

525. Defense
Department
military primp
contract
awards

543, Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

548. Value of
manufactures'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

C)

1980
January
February
March

528^4

564^7

26.6

372.1

DEFENSE INDICATORS

Revised

2

Revised

2

12,578
12,399
13,806

5,491
6,839
5,887

71,178
71,665
73,179

3,773

345^4

6,944
6,901
6,450

73,912
74,262
74,592

4,474
4,044
4,546
6,81b
4,916
5,669

5,152

-66\5

52o! 9

587^3

23^9

373^9

350l6

13,722
13,718
12,809

-74! 2

540.8

6is!6

28^6

386! 8

358^2

12,677
13,728
13,552

6,211
7,188
6,893

74,870
75,133
76,745

-6?!g

573^2

64i!i

37] i

366*3

13,014
12,876
15,825

5,639
6,773
9,835

run

403^4

78,183
79,936

3,986
3,3!)?
4,991

January
February
March . . . . . . . .

-46\6

617.4

664.0

36^9

4ii!?

374*8

14,808
15,741
15,560

7,155
7,514
7,590

82,087
03,608
84,883

4,630
6,261
4,848

April
May
June

-47l2

621! 6

66&\2

36.1

413^6

37?!s

15,210
15,699
15,156

8,505
7,967
7,041

84,994
85,165
86,126

3,976
5,383
4,956

July
August . . . . . . . . .
September . . . . . . .

-55.7

638! 3

694.0

37^8

419.6

3si!e

16,836
17,374
16,584

8,845
9,504
9,325

87,968
89,857
91,896

5,482
5,759
6,564

(NA)

(NA)

r?27!i

CNA)

(NA)

r387.*6

12,892
15,674
pl9,805

4,466
9,817
9,049

91,354
92,575
93,827

3,830
4,860
rf>, 034

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

p7,475

, .

July
August
September

. ,

October
November
December
1981

October . .
November
December
1982
January . . . ,
February
March . . . . . . . . .
April . .
May . . . . . .
June

....

July
....
August
September . .
October , . , . . . . .
November . . . . . . .
December . . . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of thess series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
x
Based on national income and product accounts.
a
Seo "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page

90



FEBRUARY 1982

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

| Q

DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continued

National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

557. Output of
defense and
space equipment

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

580. Defense
Department
net outlays

(1967 = 100)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

570. Employment in defense products
industries

(Mil.dol.)

(Thous.)

Revised 1

1980

Defense Department
personnel
577. Military,
active duty (§)

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment ®

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

565. Federal
purchases as
a percent of
GNP

(Percent)

Revised 1

97.4

8,762
8,819
9,246

54,323
55,318
57,151

10,900
10,652
11,358

2,983
3,229
3,319

1,346
1,352
1 357

2,029
2,032
2,033

964
965
966

12516

4^9

April
May
June

97.6
97.4
97.7

9,415
9,576
9,749

58,345
59,024
60,207

11,188
11,061
11,537

3,280
3,366
3,363

1,359
1,363
1 359

2,028
2,031
2,034

969
975
988

128^7

5^6

July
August
September

97.9
97.7
98.1

10,034
10,337
10,447

63,573
65,097
67,113

11,193
11,425
11,993

3,450
3,391
3,653

1,364
1,369
1,372

2,044
2,049
2,051

990
973
971

13K4

5!6

October
November
December

99.2
100.3
101.0

10,698
10,815
11,021

67,445
67,046
68,355

12,193
12,224
11,992

3,653
3,757
3,683

1,376
1,379
1,380'

2,053
2,056
2,051

971
972
973

ui'.e

5^2

January
February
March

100.9
100.5
100 7

11,418
11,628
11,984

69,321
71,711
72,398

12,639
12,932
12,619

3,564
3,861
4 161

1,383
1,379
1,380

2,056
2,061
2 062

973
972
974

145^2

s!i

April

12,165
12,273
12 700

72,410
73,852
74 696

12,833
13,433
13,264

3,964
3,941
4 112

1,383
1,383
1 385

2,060
2,064
2 070

980
990
1 008

148.2

5.1

June

101.5
102.0
101 7

July
August
September

102.6
102.8
103.0

12,681
12,689
13,019

75,952
77,294
79,632

13,889
13,809
14,014

4,229
4,419
4,214

1,384
1,387
1,387

2,082
2,084
2,083

1,023
1,017
984

October
November
December

104.5
rlOS.l
rl06.0

13,068
13,541
pl3,642

79,127
79,473
r80,880

14,227
14,548
15,298

4,337
4,502
r4,627

1,381
1,375
pi,381

2,090
2,097
2,093

998
1,006
pi,009

p84,037

pl4,139

p4,318

(NA)

P2.104

(NA)

January
February
March

97.2
97.6

1981

May

5^2

rl70.*i

r5.*7

1982

plO6.1

January
February
March

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September .
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

ItO

FEBRUARY 1982




91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

US. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Q

Year
and
month

602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

(Mil.dol.)
1980

604. Exports of agricultural products

MERCHANDISE TRADE

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

CO

CO

612. General imports,
total

(Mil.dol.)

616. Imports ol
automQbr.es and parts

614. Imports of
petroleum and
petroleum products

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

to

CO

Jflnusry
February . .
March . . . . . . . . .

17,419
16,984
18,265

3,442
3,484
3,325

3,297
3,454
3,423

21,142
21,779
20,947

5,614
7,741
6,991

1,899
2,035
1,960

April
May
June

18,567
17,647
18,440

3,329
3,326
3,085

3,571
3,620
3,943

19,766
20,587

5,185
7,191

1,710
1,999

July . . . . . . . . . . .
Aupust
..
September . . . . . . .

18,267
19,086
18,828

3,286
3,557
3,596

3,985
4,230
4,027

19,139
19,713
19,940

5,153
6,018
4,982

2,103
2,139
2,270

October . . .
November
December

19,214
18,715
19,251

3,485
3,464
3,838

4,117
3,968
3,819

20,347
19,860
21,436

5,876
6,051
6,254

2,189
2,314
1,897

January . . . . . . . .
February . . . . . ,
March

18,825
19,764
21,434

4,295
3,977
4,201

4,058
4,155
4,352

23,194
21,922
20,949

7,359
8,018
5,992

2,264
1,742
2,125

April
May
June

19,818
18,869
19,870

3,604
3,708
3,256

4,311
4,160
4,388

22,289
21,310
21,975

6,919
6,329
6,521

2,042
2,299
2,257

July
August
September

19,264
19,050
19,655

3,089
3,202
3,563

4,567
6,207
4,559

19,807
23,528
21,229

5,400
6,33S
5,709

2,138
2,635
1,943

October . . . . . . . . .
November
December

19,044
19,118
18,821

3,735
3,442
3,220

4,338
4,366
4,005

23,234
22,B22
19,516

6,123
6,483
4,636

2,464
2,239
2,164

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

...........

o , o 11

1 fiA •}

1981

.

1982
January
February
March . . . . . . . . . .
April
May
June

....,...,,.

July
August
September
October
November
December

.

See note on psge 80.
Graph!) of these series are shown on page 56.
l

See "New features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

92



FEBRUARY 1 9 8 2

KOI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Q |

GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)

Merchandise, adjusted i

Goods and services
Year
and
month

668. Exports

667. Balance

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

669. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

622. Balance

(Mil.dol.)

618. Exports

(Mil.dol.)

Income on investments
620. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

651. U.S. investments abroad

(Mil.dol.)

652. Foreign
investments in
the United
States

(Mil.dol.)

1980
January
February
March

-217

85,764

85,98i

-10,126

54,898

65,024

20,465

10,629

787

83,6i7

82,830

-6,744

55,667

62,411

16,860

10,342

July
August
September

6,478

86,655

80,177

-2,902

«.ai

59,i54

18,850

».»

October
November
December

3,734

88,636

84,902

-5,570

57,149

62,719

19,764

11,507

January
February
March

4,790

94,431 '

89,641

-4,677

61,098

65,775

21,566

12,sis

April
May
June

2,660

95,083

92,423

-6,9i6

60,477

67,387

22,399

13,666

July
August
September

p3,994

p94,250

p90,256

-7,042

58,037

65,079

p23,610

pl4,i20

October
November
December

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

April
May
June

1981

1982
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military- grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of
Defense purchases (imports).

FEBRUARY 1932



93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q

Year
and
month

47. United States,
index of industrial production

(1967-100)

721. OECD1
European countries, index of
industrial
production

(1967-100)

INDUSTR AL PRODUCTION

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

726. France,
• index of industrial production

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1967

100)

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

(1967

100)

723. Canada,
index o1 industrial production

(1967 100)

1980
January
February .
March

153.0
152.8
152.1

163
163
163

230.7
241.0
235.0

164
167
164

166
167
166

130
128
125

168.9
176.1
174.6

162.9
161.9
164, a

April
May
June

148.2
143.8
141.4

163
158
159

238.2
235.7
234.4

164
161
160

167
160
160

124
124
124

176.1
162.3
167.4

160.8
158.4
158.1

July .
August
September

140.3
142.2
144.4

161
154
155

234.5
225.3
233.4

161
157
157

166
166
156

123
120
118

165.2
141.5
160.8

157. ii
158.8
160.9

October . . .
November
December . . . . . .

146.6
149.2
150.4

156
156
155

235.7
232.6
236.4

160
157
154

rl59
rl57
rl63

118
117
117

163.2
169.5
159.4

162.0
162.7
163.1

151.4
151.8
152.1

154

rl59
rl58

238.3
239.8
237.9

156
164
160

rl56
rl59
rl57

116
117
117

158. Z
1/0.1
168.9

161.7
164. t
167.1

April
May
June

151.9
152.7
152.9

156
rl56
155

239.0
234.5
240.3

160
160
156

rl56
rl59
rl60

117
116
118

167.5
157.6
153.0

166.7
169.1
170.0

July
August
September

153.9
153.6
151.6

156
rl52
156

243.1
236.0
245.1

160
157
160

rl57
rl57
rl60

117
117
118

162.8
137.2
163.1

166.1
163.0
161.2

rl49.1
146.4
rl43.4

rl58
pl58
(NA)

248.8
P248.4
(NA)

160
pl57
(NA)

rl60
pl6O
(NA)

121
pl20
(NA)

rl5B.5
pl69.0
(NA)

15B.9
pl58.*

1981

October
November
December .

(NA;

1982
January . . .
February
March . . .
.....

P139.1

April . . . . . . . . . .
May
....
June . . . . .
July . . . . . . . . . . .
August . . . . . . . .
September . . . . . . .
October . . . . . . . . .
November ,
,
December . . . . . .
See note on p.tge 80,
Graphs of tee series are shown on page 58.
1

Organ!2X1;ion for Economic Cooperation and Development.

94



FEBRUARY 1 9 8 2

IU II

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q

United States
Year

320. Index ©

and
month

320c. Change
over 6-month

738. Index @

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
....

November
December

735. Index ©

735c. Change
over 6-month

736. Index ©

spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

736c. Change
over 6-month

732. Index ©

spans '

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967-100)

732c, Change
over 6-month
spansl

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised2

Revised2

Revised2

Revised2

Revised2

1980

738c. Change
over 6-month

United Kingdom

France

West Germany

spans'

spans'

(1967-100)

October

Japan

CONSUMER PRICES

233.2
236.4
239.8

15.5
15.0
14.5

271.3
273.3
275.0

9.9
9.6
9.4

171.0
172.8
173.8

5.6
5.6
5.5

277.2
280.2
283.4

14.8
14.5
14.1

394.1
399.7
405.1

20.2
19.8
19.5

242.5
244.9
247.6

11.6
10.4
9.6

280.1

282.6
284.0

8.5
7.6
8.0

174.9
175.6
176.5

6.4
5.5
4.9

286.7
289.3
291.1

12.7
12.5
12.1

419.0
422.8
426.8

17.2
14.4
13.3

247.8
249.4
251.7

10.0
10.3
10.3

284.0
283.2
288.3

6.1
7.2
5.5

176.8
177.0
177.0

4.6
5.0
5.4

295.5
298.4
301.0

12.2
12.6
13.2

430.4
431.3
434.1

10.9
11.3
11.1

253.9
256.2
258.4

11.8
12.4
11.4

288.8
289.4
288.3

6.2
5.3
4.6

177.3
178.3
179.4

5.4
5.4
6.3

304.3
306.4
309.1

12.9
12.7
12.6

436.8
440.3
442.7

9.1
10.6
12.0

260.5
263.2
265.1

10.0
9.3
8.8

291.1
290.8
292.2

4.4
3.1
3.8

180.9
182.3
183.5

6.6
6.2
5.7

312.7
315.6
318.8

13.2
13.0
13.0

445.5
449.5
456.2

13.0
12.1
11.6

266.8
269.0
271.3

9.6
9.3
10.4

294.5
297.0
297.3

2.6
2.9
3.2

184.7
185.4
186.3

6.3
6.7
6.9

323.1
326.0
329.2

13.8
14.3
15.3

469.4
472.4
475.2

12.5
12.1
10.7

274.4
276.5
279.3

10.5
9.8
9.1

296.4
294.7
299.5

3.9
4.1
4.2

187.1
187.7
188.6

6.9
7.1
6.9

334.9
339.0
342.9

14.9
15.7
15.1

477.3
480.8
483.5

10.4
11.8
12.5

279.9
280.7
281.5

7.2

300.7
299.8
299.8

(NA)

189.2
190.1
190.7

6.3

347.1
350.3
352.4

(NA)

487.9
493.0
496.1

11.5

1981
January
February
March . .
April
May
June

. .

July
August
September
October
November
December
1982

282.5

January

(NA)

192.3

(NA)

499.0

February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.

Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

2

FEBRUARY 1982



95

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

1

CONSUMER PRICES-Continued

Italy

Canada

737. Index © 737c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

733. Index ® 733c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

9

Year
and
month

(1967 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967-100)

Revised2

1980

I

(Ann. rate,
percent)

J

STOCK PRICES

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices (3)

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices @

746. France,
index of
stock
prices @

U2, Unitiid
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices @

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices @

743. Canada,
mdpx of
stock
prices <JD

(1967-100)

(1967

(1967-100)

(1967 100)

(1967 100)

(1967 100)

(196'/ 1001

100)

Revised 2

Jartusry
February
March . . . .

367.9
374.3
378.2

22.3
22.5
19.9

231.3
233.3
235.8

9.9
9.7
9.9

120.6
125.5
113.9

420.1
425.5
413.0

117.2
123.3
118.1

203.8
207.4
185.4

224.3
239.4
231.6

59.8
61.1
61.1

224.7
256.3
203.2

April
May
June

384.3
388.2
391.7

18.9
19.3
20.3

237.2
240.0
242.7

10.4
11.2
11.7

112.0
117.1
124.6

417.6
422.9
423.8

116.5

118.8
120.6

189.0
201.1
201.4

228.1
230.3
240.7

61.0
61.5
64.8

212.8
216.4

July
August . . . . . . . . .
September

398.7
403.5
411.6

20.0
21.4
22.7

244.5
246.8
249.0

12.2
12.5
12.4

130.4
134.3
137.6

424.9
429.1
437.6

121.2
121.7
120.0

198.9
199.9
203.0

25b.9
256.7
H62.6

66.0
74.4
82.7

240.0
232.3
233.3

October . . . . . .
November . . . . . . .
December . . . . . .

418.5
427.3
432.5

20.7
20.4
20.3

251.2
254.3
255.8

13.6
13.1
13.2

141.7
147.6
145.2

447.5
447.8
443.5

120.6
117.2
116.3

218.0
215.2
206.6

267.4
277,5
267.6

93.5
99.2
96.0

223.3
23!i.2
219.9

January
February . . . . . . . .
March . . . . ,

440.7
449.1
455.4

20.1
20.1
19.3

259.1
261.7
265.2

13.1
12,2
13.2

144.6
139.7
144.9

457.9
468.2
467.3

115.3
114.0
116.3

191.1
201.1
209.4

259.0
269.0
273.2

110.0
122.1
125.9

223.7

April
May . . .
June . , . , .

461.3
468.7
473.9

18.9
18.2
16.8

267.2
269.6
273.8

12.3
12.3
11.9

146.2
143.3
143.9

494.6
502.8
515.2

122.7
122.1
126.1

197.7
162.5
152.3

293.2
295.6
289,0

132.4
135.9
123.5

232.3
241). 7
242.9

July . . . .
August
September

..

477.7
481.0
487.7

17.7
16.8
17.0

276.2
278.2
280.2

12.2
12.2
11.0

140.5
141.0
128.7

534.4
540.7
511.3

127.5
122.5
122.5

168.9
177.4
176.5

284.8
293.6
278.9

99.1
112.0
99.1

232.3
23:1.6
192.3

October .
November
December

......
......

497.5
506.0
511.1

(NA)

283.0
285.4
286.7

10.6

130.3
133.7
134.7

493.8
505.6
512.7

118.8
118.0
117.7

163.9
169.2
pl78.6

259.5
278.0
284.2

91.2
93.8
96.9

190.4
2 OH. 9
p212.Q

rp517.7
p518.4

rpll6.3
P119.3

rp213.5
p228.5

rp290.7
P301.2

rp83.4
p84.4

rp!9/.O
pl&J.ii

???.{}

1981

233.9

1982
January
February . ,
March

(NA)

288.7

127.6
pl25.0

April . . . . . . . . . . .
May
June
July .
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
z
See "New features and Changes for This Issue/1 page iii.

96



FEBRUARY 1982

itcn

APPENDIXES
B.

Current Adjustment Factors
Series

5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment i nsurance
13. New business incorporations *

Aug.

115.5

87.2

78.0

106.4

94.1

99.7 102.2

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
manufacturing2
33. Net change in mortgage debt

1 3

72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
517, Defense Department
gross obligations
incurred1.
.
525. Defense Department military prime
contract awards

.

1981
Sept. Oct.

July

85.9

98.3

Feb.

1982
Mar. Apr,

May

June

97.3 122.9

144.2

108.4

90.8

93.0

83.2

93.4

102.3

98.5

90.0 112.1

104.2

97.9

106.4

88.1
99.4

95.8
971 -1821 -2198

613

873

968

165

99.6

99.2

99.6

100.4

100.6

101.4 100.4

92.9

81.9

124.9 139.2

101.4

90.4 107.7

79.4 188.8 105.9

101.1

95.0

10L6

. . 84.4
96.9

94.7

98.0 101.6

570. Employment in defense products industries .

99.8

99.4

99.8

103.6

95.9

97.2

604. Exports of agricultural products

92.0

91.4

89.9 105.1

606 Exports of nonelectrical machinery

95 0

93 8

94.1

614. Imports of petroleum and products1

97.5

101.6

616. Imports of automobiles and parts1

99.5

79.3

580. Defense Department net out!ays

Jan.

-152

543. Defense Department gross unpaid
obligations outstanding

1

Dec.

Nov.

99.9 100.2
100.5

102 1

107.8 100.5
90.2

96.2

92.4

107.3
-769

-93

-83

1570

100.0

99.9

99.9

99.3

88.0 102.0 101.0

88.2

86.8

91.4

96.0

80.7

101.3 100.9

98.4

99.6

72.5 111.8

101.7 102.8 101.4 100.7
100.4 100.3

100.2

100.2

99.9

99,8 100.0

106.4 102.2

96.4 104.6

1Q3.8

97.4

96.9

109.7 111.7

99.9

97.5 114.8 102.4

96.5

93.9

102.7

91.3

94.5

102.5

105.7

105.5

94.3 104.7 100.3

102.9

105.0 108.5

93.1

104.2

111.4 102.8

103,8

95.5

97.2

102.3

106.1

102.0

94.5

113.5

109.5

NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description
of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE X-ll VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD
II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM.
'Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly
series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to
yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program.




97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

5. AVERAGE WEEKLY. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
(THOUSANDS)

16 g

1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

285
294
174
221
175
303
256
218
242
354
292
201
393
301
310
283

206
305
280
181
201
177
318
240
226
225
407
284
271
429
29S
301
270

196S...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1971).. .
1979...
1900...
1981...

243
222
196
206
179
240
292
264
226
294
522
360
394
343
353
416
424

248
219
231
196
186
256 .
286
262
223
315
532
340
427
381
352
397
410

201
333
276
166
209
188

320
228
221
219
436
258
303
379
287
288
111
237
182
256
194
185
26 2

294
258
227
302
536
358
346
335
346
438
413

210
379
263

265

239
377
250
199
213
198
313
222
236
244
400
246
316
358
301
288
262

219
359
252
209
242
195
314
222
227
246
410
258
322
334
304
284
257

237
179
2S9
193

224
192
236
195

224
194
231
194

181
3 26

182

197

302
290
262
234
294
496
392
378
324
341
616
401

291
289
286
233
314
491
394
358
331
358
581
405

199

219
179
313
228
223

239
438
24 4

294
381
283
293

281
260
238
289
521
371
371

322
411
532

395

194
340
223
236

315
207
294

Aug.

207
229
319

233

245

267

224
235

350
264

363
291

335
348
303
282

363
316

231
199

231
192
195
273
285
272

232
294
442
393
370
347
377
510
395

218
320
182
242
160

203
306
1*)4
2J4
1'fS

230
322

251
3 15
2IJ4
2..4
302
3.L4

204
236
305
330

3 a

271
351
329

35
16
54
84
28
37
21
54
48
33
28
58
44
38
56
50
55

34
12
62
85
22
37
24
60
46
28
28
62
30
40
56
52
54

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970..,
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

68
7<I
48
50
62
56
38
52
78
85

72
85
51
55
61
58
44
52
84
88

It

16

42
4<\
55
69
48
46

50
55
64
77
42
50

27

36
14
60
58
19
38
30

66
49
25

71
50
28

32

34
62

26
10
60
74
18
40

62

27
40
55
54
60
66
86
38
54
61
50
46

58
88

88
17
52
56
67
78
45
52

28

47
48

60
60
72
82
39
52
68
52
52

58
90
84
22
58

58
64

76
40
56

31
12
66
46
23
36
35
70
39
30
38
62
32
48
46
58
63

30
12
64
38
34
34
36
65
40
29
38
62
34
48
42
54
55

70
75
36
52
69
72
53
60
92
79
24
58
56
64
76
32
52

66
69
30
52
70
69
50
60
89
76
26
62
58
66
70
28
48

36
22
88
34

50
30
40
70

56
38
44
60
36

49
44
42
59
62

70
41
56
66
50
48
63
88
72
30
60

234

344

298
197

20O
210
169
290
276
215

223
320
311
3S1
385
30S
299
276
262

305
290
244

245

248

210

209

212

195
212
199

197
217
194
195

203
IP 8
2(i2

208
209
190

196

300

285

220

287
325
246

319

329

307
245

247

241

2fi4
2E.0
244

350
449
389
360
339
383
495

374
447
410
363
321
370
48U

421

483

36
38
94
38
47
30
41
72
52

34

419
420
409
3S7
326

4C0
417
537

38
53

IQ

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
198b...
198(1...

2.31
2,22
2.70
2.20
2.03
1.07
2.05
1.6]L
1.52
l.SC
1.5"
1.5*>
1.71
1.8]L
1.69
1.551
1.6<

2.11
2.81
2.73
2.08
1.91
1.83
2.07
1.62
1.46
1.50
1.63
1.S5
1.60
1.84
1.69
1.60
1.68

2.5$
2.4S
2.3"!
2.4:
2.1;
2.3"
2.4;

1.79
1.75
1.86
1.57
1.57
1.83
1.81
1.72
2.01
2.54
2.71
2.46
2.37
2.48
2.31
2.32
2.51

2.49
2.85
2,38
2.10
2.05
1.90
1.98
1.53
1.53
1.57
1.76
1.52

1.60
1.81
1,69
1.64
1.66

...

#

2 .94
2.45
2.37
2.51
2.33
2,53
2.53

2.34
2.70
2.45
2.31
1.98
1.75
1.99
1.55
1.54
1.47
1.70
1.50
1.64
1.85
1.67
1.59
1.59
1.69
1.75
1.87
1.59
1.63
1.80
1.72
1.76
2.01
2.56
2.74
2,34
2.40
2.44
2.43
2.53
2.40

2.21
2.80
2.43
2.09
2.08
1.88
1.94
1.55
1.49
1.46
1.74
1.49
1.64
1.83
1.64
1.57
1.68

2.29
2.91
2.22
2.06
2.25
1.82
1.91
1.50
1.51
1.52
1.75
1.43
1.68
1.79
1.65
1.68
1.63

62

50

46
22
53
72
44

40

41

52
44

55

36
58

43
52
74

64
39
55
48
40
72

64
73
43
46
68
45

62

60

72
44
46
66
45

49
63
88

40
65

70
50
52
65
38
50
73

90
52

90
46

44
60
56
66
51
39
43

45
50
56
68
50
44

48

65

68
36
64

58

32

34
48

2.65
2.41
2.43
2.28
2.37
2.64
2.40

1.76
1.76
1.72
1.56
1.64
1.79
1.78
1.85
1.99
2.61
2.63
2.40
2.38
2.44
2.45
2.74
2.30

2.17
2.91
2.17
2.17
2,19
1.83
1.86
1.49
1.51
1.50
1.71
1.36
1.73
1.83
1.61
1.68
1,63

65

55

2.22
2.55
2.26
2.11
2.14
2.01
1.83
1.44
1.53
1.43
1.75
1.52
1.70
1.80
1.61

1.67
1.71

2.20
2.69
2.30
2.09
1.99
1.97
1.81

1.47
1.54
1.54
1.63
1.56
1.71
1.76
1.63
1.73
1.65

1.82
1.76

2 .60
2.39
2.41
2.42
2.45
2.77
2.22

253
214
230

355
3 20

275
301
296
310
301
251

174
210
180
314

241
222
2 29
399
278

205
400
294
300

277
243
208
228
199

210
299
265

103
253
291
261
225
304
530
353
389
353
350
417
416

236

390
347
340
4 20
422

4 20
4 20

539

551

32
SO
87

17
50
04

34
44

31
40

20

20
50

39 3

286

206
219
20 4
190

204
494
364
361
342
347

SB

52
66
46
29
58
56
38
51

56

36
25
52
SO
38
53

48
48
70

48
46
66

66
64
51
60
6H
36
40
70
91
32

72
57

44
48

50
66
47
45
32

1.64
1.55
1.68
1.87
1.75
1.93
2.02
2.63
2.65
2.39
2.34
2.37
2.47
2.94
2.35

. . .

2.23
2.70
2.23
2.05
1.99
1.97
1.84
1.47
1.48
1.51

1.69
1.67
1.79
1.73
1.61
1.65
1.7 L

1.75
1.78
1.67
1.63

1.79

4U

56
64
36
51
77
00
22

32

13
59
81
23
38
24
60
48
29

29
61
34

39
56
52

56
69
82
46
33
61

55
43

54
83
8?

39
45
56
60
49
47
30

17
40

2.02

2.49
2.05
2.38
2.10
2.05
1.90
1.98
1.S3
1.S3
1.57
1.76
1.52

52
62
75
45
49

2.0)
2.1L
2.6>
2.4U
2.5)
2.4 L
2. 3'5
2.4>
2.5J
2.37

2.67
2.09
2.15
1.92
1.98
1,65
1.50
1.S2
1.57

1.55
1.6S
1.76
1.68
1.64
1.76
1.70

1.60
1.81
1.69
1.64
1.66

1.65

1.8L
1.77
1.67
1.43
1.63
1.85

1.74
1.69
1.63

1.76
1.90

1.9)

2^59
2.36
2.36
2.42
2.59
2.70
2.28

'KRXGD

223
372
255
20 2
225
191
313
224
229
24 3
416
249
311
3S8
296
288
261

205
348
192
2,44
230
225
312
220
235
269
350
21S
350
131
303
206
?30

216
343
197
219
178
276
281
218
222
326
31S
312
300
302
304
286
254

228
188
24 2
194
187
306
207
269
235
299
S03
386
369
326
370
§76
400

232
197
220
19S
195
293
306
254
240
339
446
397
367
336
379
498
433

209
210
211

201
22S

lay

1<)4

209
34 J

210
211
23,8

30$
226
227
2*67

370
279

rn

348

2() 9

290
260
2/UI

200
317
201

va
2'^

24 ?,

260
462
392
307
349
338
416
430
536

2«U
%H1
240
4 6'y

3H1
369
3 Ml

37U
4 til)

446

32
13
63
4?
25
36
34
69
43
29
37
62
31
43
45
57
59

37
38
93
41
48
28
43
71
52
35
50
62
39
52
45
47
66

29
56
86
38
43
21
S2
65

69
75
38
52
69
64
52
59
90
80
24
59
57
65
74
33
52

63
72
43
49
67
47
48
64
89
64
37
61
58
62
l
i5
35
46

66
64
50
56
64
37
fiO
73
90
33
43
48
54
67
4!)
45

42

30
56
57
30
S3
40
47
69

M
M)

'I (i

$2

n
66
46

H
4.J
b\l
36

4ti
4'J
\il

bi
07
7,1
44
i» '.i
6 'j

!il
4H
<i3
OB
66
30
!
*4
C 1
>»

64
63
4t)

n

END Qi? P&RXOD
2.37
2.69
1.97
2.23
1.85
2.0 2
1.79
1.44
1.49
1.55
1.60

2l 29
2.19
2.24
2.34
2.50
2.66
2.42

NOTE
Un'Ujss otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
This series contains revisions beginning with 1978.
'TMi




Annual

AVERAGE t'OR

60
88

47
72
47

211
322
283
241
251
473

213
190
200

191
30P

39. PERCENT OF CONSUMER INSTALLMENT LOANS DELINQUENT 30 DAYS AND OVER
(PERCENT)
1940...
1949...
1950,..
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
19S7...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

IV Q

III Q

II Q

<§

3 8

96
50
46
25

32
57
64

49

59
56
60
46

Dec.

211

3"'3
304
3(14
2fl2
24 9

32, VENDOR PERFORMANCE, PERCENT OF COMPANIES RECEIVING SLOWER DELIVERIES
(PERCENT REPORTING)
1948...
1949...
1950...
19S1...
1952...
1953...
1954...
195S...
1956...
195?...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961.,.
1962...
1963...
1964...

Nov.

Oct.

AVERAGE! L'OK
20 2
305
170
254

223

260

Sept

INSURANCE , STATE PROGRAMS 1

1.72
1.96
2.27
2.80
2.47
2.40
2.36
2.45
2.64
2.57
2.37

. . .

2.29
2.91
2.22
2.06
2.25
1.82
1.91
1.50
1.51
1.52
1.75
1.4 3
1.68
1.79
1.65
1.68
1.63

2.20
2.69
3,30
2.09
1.99
1.97
1.81
1.4 7
1.54
1.54
1.63
I.r>6
&.71
;:,76
J1.63
H.7 3
J1.65

2.02
2.67
2.09
2.15
1.92
1.90
1.65
1.50
1.52
1.57
1.59
1.65
1.76
1.60
1.64
1.76
1.70

2.S9
2,36
2.36
2.4 2
2.S9
2.70
2,28

1.65
1.74
1.69
1.63
1.76
1.90
1.72
1.96
2.27
2.00
2,47
2.40
2.36
2.45
2.64
2.57
2.37

1.76
1.76
1.72
1.56
1.64
1.79
1.7B
1.85

1.99
...
2.94
2.45
2.37
2.51
2.33
2.53
2.53

2,61
2.63
2.40
2.38
2.44
2.45
2.74
2,30

t, t) 2
2-67
2 ,0 9
2 .1 h
1,92
1,96

U6S
1..S0
1 u '-* 2
11 0 1
1., S vi
I „ 6'»
1.76
1.68
1,64
1.76
1.70
1.6'i

x\n

1,69
1,63
1.76
1.90
1,72
1.96
2,27

2! 47
2,40
2.36
2.4 5
2.64
2.57
2,37
(FEBRUARY 1902)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Feb.

Jan.

Apr.

Mar.
109.

May

June

July

Sept.

Aug.

AVERAGE PRIME RATE CHARGED BY BANKS
{PERCENT)

Oct.

Nov. 1 Dec.

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962.. .
1963...
1964...

1.75
2.00
2.00
2.44
3.00
3.00
3.25
3.00
3.50
.00
.34
.00
.00
.50
t 1.50
.50
1.50

1.75
2.00
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.00
3.25
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.00
4.00
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

1.75
2.00
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.00
3.13
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.00
4.00
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

1.75
2.00
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.03
3.00
3.00
3.65
4.00
3.83
4.00
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

1.75
2.00
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.25
3.00
3.00
3.75
4.00
3.50
4.23
5,00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

1.75
2.00
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.25
3.00
3.00
3.75
4.00
3.50
4,50
5.00
4,50
4.50
4.50
4.50

1.75
2.00
2,00
2.50
3.00
3.25
3.00
3.00
3.75
4.00
3.50
4.50
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

2.00
2.00
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.25
3.00
3.23
3.84
4.42
3.50
4.50
4.85
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

2.00
2.00
2.08
2.50
3.00
3.25
3.00
3.25
4.00
4.50
3.83
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

2.00
2.00
2.25
2.62
3.00
3.25
3.00
3.40
1.00
1.50
.00
>.00
.50
.50
1.50
1.50
1.50

2.00
2.00
2.25
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.00
3.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
>.00
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
i1 . 5 0

2.00
2.00
2.25
2.85
3.00
3.25
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
4.00
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

1.75
2.00
2.00
2.48
3.00
3.00
3.21
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.11
4.00
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

1.75
2.00
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.18
3.00
3.00
3.72
4.00
3.61
4.24
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

1.92
2.00
2,03
2.50
3.00
3.25
3.00
3.16
3.86
4.31
3,61
4.67
4.78
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

2.00
2.00
2.25
2.74
3.00
3.25
3.00
3.47
4.00
4.50
4.00
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974. . .
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981.
..

4.50
5.00
5.96
6.00
6.95
8.50
6.29
5.18
6.00
9.73
10.05
7.00
6.25
7.93
11.75
15.25
20.16

4.50
5.00
5.75
6.00
7.00
8.50
5.88
4.75
6.02
9.21
8.96
6.75
6.25
8.00
11.75
15.63
19.43

4.50
5.35
5.71
6.00
7.24
8.39
5.48
4.75
6.30
8.83
7.93
6.75
6.25
8.00
11.75
18.31
18.05

4.50
5.50
5.50
6.20
7.50
8.00
5.25
4.98
6.60
10.02
7.50
6.75
6.25
8.00
11.75
19.77
17.15

4.50
5.50
5.50
6.50
7.50
8.00
5.42
5.00
7.01
11.25
7.40
6.75
6.41
8.27
11.75
16.57
19.61

4.50
5.52
5.50
6.50
8.23
8.00
5.50
5.04
7.49
11.54
7.07
7.20
6.75
8.63
11.65
12.63
20.03

4.50
5.75
5.50
6.50
8,50
8.00
5,90
5.25
8.30
11.98
7,15
7.25
6.75
9,00
11.54
11.48
20.39

4.50
5.88
5.50
6.50
8.50
8.00
6.00
5.27
9.23
12.00
7.66
7.01
6.83
9.01
11.91
11.12
20.5 0

4.50
6.00
5.50
6.40
8.50
7.83
6.00
5.50
9.86
12.00
7.88
7.00
7.13
9.41
12.90
12.23
20.08

4.50
6.00
5.50
6.00
8.50
7.50
5.91
5.73
9.94
11.68
7.96
6.78
7.52
9.94
14.39
13.79
18.45

4.50
6.00
5.68
6.20
8.50
7.28
5.47
5.75
9.75
10.83
7.5 3
6.50
7.75
10.94
15.55
16.06
16.84

4.92
6.00
6.00
6.60
8.50
6.9 2
5.25
5.79
9.75
10.50
7.26
6,3 5
7.75
11.55
15.30
20.35
15.75

4.50
5.12
5.81
6.00
7.06
8.46
5.88
4.89
6.11
9.26
8.98
6.83
6.25
7.98
11.75
16.40
19.21

4.50
5.51
5.50
6.40
7.74
8.00
5.39
5.01
7.03
10.94
7.32
6.90
6.47
8.30
11.72

16.32
18.93

4.50
5.88
5.50
6.47
8.50
7.94
5.97
5.34
9.13
11.99
7.56
7.09
6.90
9.14
12.12
11.61
20.3 2

4.64
6.00
5.73
6.27
8.50
7.23
5.54
5.76
9.81
11.00
7.58
6.54
7.67
10.81
15.08
16.73
17.01

114

Annual

(J

DISCOUNT RATE ON NEW ISSUES OF 91-DAY TREASURY BILLS
(PERCENT)

1.85
2.00
2.07
2.56
3.00
3.17
3.05
3.16
3.77
4.20
3.83

1.48
1.82
1.50
1.50
1.50
i1.50
1.54
i.62
5.63
6.28
7.95
7.91
5.70
5.25
8.02
10.80
7.86
6.84
6.82
9.06
12.67
15.27
18.87

©
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948...
1949. . .
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

0.97
1.16
1.09
1.39
1.69
2.04
1.21
1.26
2.46
3.21
2.60
2.84
4.44
2.30
2.75
2.91
3.53

0.99
1.16
1.12
1.39
1.57
2.02
0.98
1.18
2.37
3.16
1.56
2\71
3.95
2.41
2.75
2.92
3.53

1,00
1.16
1.14
1.42
1.66
2.08
1.05
1.34
2.31
3.14
1.35
2.85
3.44
2.42
2.72
2.90
3.55

1.00
1.16
1.16
1.52
1.62
2.18
1.01
1.62
2.61
3.11
1.13
2.96
3.24
2.33
2.74
2.91
3.48

1.00
1.15
1.17
1.58
1.71
2.20
0.78
1.49
2.65
3.04
1.05
2.85
3.39
2.29
2.69
2.92
3.48

1.00
1.16
1.17
1.50
1.70
2.23
0.65
1,43
2.53
3.32
0.88
3.25
2.64
2.36
2,72
3.00
3.48

1.00
0.98
1.17
1.59
1.82
2.10
0.71
1.62
2.33
3.16
0.96
3.24
2.40
2.27
2.94
3.14
3.48

1.03
1.02
1.21
1.64
1.88
2.09
0.89
1,88
2.61
3.40
1.69
3.36
2.29
2.40
2.84
3.32
3.51

1.09
1.06
1.32
1.65
1.79
1.88
1.01
2.09
2,05
3.58
2.48
4.00
2.49
2.30
2.79
3.38
3.53

1.12
1.04
1.33
1.61
1.78
1.40
0.99
2.26
2.96
3.59
2.79
4.12
2.43
2.35
2.75
3.45
3.58

1.14
1.06
1.36
1.61
1.86
1.43
0.95
2.22
3.00
3.34
2.76
4.21
2,38
2.46
2.80
3.52
3.62

1.15
1.10
1.37
1.7 3
2.13
1.6 3
1.17
2.56
3.23
3.10
2.81
4.57
2.27
2.62
2.86
3.52
3.86

0.99
1.16
1.12
1.40
1.64
2.05
1.08
1.26
2.38
3.17
1.84
2.80
3.94
2.38
2.74
2.91
3.54

1.00
1.16
1.17
1.53
1.68
2.20
0.81
1.51
2.60
3.16
1.02
3.02
3.09
2.33
2.72
2.94
3.48

1.04
1.02
1.23
1.63
1.83
2.02
0.87
1.86
2.60
3.38
1.71
3.53
2.39
2.32
2.86
3.28
3,51

1.14
1.07
1.35
1.65
1.92
1.49
1.04
2.35
3.06
3.34
2.79
4.30
2.36
2.'48
2.80
3.50
3.69

1.04
1.10
1.22
1.55
1.77
1.94
0.95
1.75
2.66
3.26
1.84
3.41
2.95
2.38
2.78
3.16
3.55

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

3.83
4.60
4.76
5.08
6.18
7.91
4.49
3.40
5.31
7.76
6.49
4.96
4.60
6.45
9.35
12.04
14.72

3.93
4.67
4.55
4.97
6.16
7.16
3.77
3.18
5.56
7.06
5.58
4.85
4.66
(6.46
9.27
12.81
14.90

3.94
4.63
4,29
5.14
6.08
6.71
3.32
3.72
6.05
7.99
5.54
5.05
4.61
6.32
9.46
15.53
13.48

3.93
4,61
3.85
5.36
6.15
6.48
3.78
3.72
6.29
8.23
5.69
4.88
4.54
6.31
9.49
14.00
13.63

3.90
4.64
3.64
5.62
6.08
7.04
4.14
3.65
6.35
8.43
5.32
5.18
4.94
6.43
9.58

3.81
4.54
3.48
5.54
6.49
6.74
4.70
3.87
7.19
8.14
5.19
5.44
5.00
6.71
9.05
7.00
14.56

3.83
4.86
4.31
5.38
7.00
6.50
5.40
4.06
8.02
7.75
6.16
5.28
5.15
7.07
9.26
8.13
14.70

3.84
4.93
4.28
5.10
7.01
6.41
5.08
4.01
8.67
8.7 4
6.46
5.15
5.50
7.04
9.45
9.26
15.61

3.91
5.36
4.45
5.20
7.13
6.24
4,67
4.65
8.48
8.36
6.38
5.08
5.77
7.84
10.18
10.3 2
14.9 5

4.03
5.39
4.59
5.33
7.04
5.93
4.49
4.72
7.16
7.24
6.08
4.93
6.19
8.13
11.47
11.58
13.87

4.08
5.34
4.76
5.49
7.19
5.29
4.19
4.77
7.87
7.58
5.47
4.81
6.16
8.79
11.87
13.89
11.27

4.36
5.01
5.01
5.92
7.72
4.8 6
4.02
5.0 6
7.36
7.18
5.50
4.3 5
€.06
9.12
12.07
15.66
10.93

3.90
4.63
4.53
5.06
6.14
7.26
3.86
3.43
5.64
7.60
5.87
4.95
4.62
6.41
9.36
13.46
14.37

3.88
4.60
3.66
5.51
6.24
6.75
4.21
3.75
6.61
8.27
5.40
5.17
4.83
6.48
9.37

4.16
5.25
4.79
5.58
7.32
5.36
4.23
4.85
7.46
7.33
5.68
4.70
6.14
8.68
11.80

10.05
14.83

3.86
5.05
4,35
5.23
7.05
6.38
5.05
4.24
8.39
8.28
6.33
5.17
5.47
7.32
9.63
9.24
15.09

3.95
4.88
4.33
5.34
6.69
6.44
4.34
4.07
7.03
7.87
5.82
5.00
5.26
7.22
10.04
11.61
14.08

115.

9.15
16.30

YIELD ON LONG-TERM TREASURY BONDS
(PERCENT)

13.71
12.02

®
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957.,.
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

2.45
2.42
2.20
2.39
2.74
2.80
2.69
2.68
2.88
3.34
3.24
3,91
4.37
3.89
4.08
3.89
4.15

2.45
2.39
2.24
2.40
2.71
2.83
2.62
2.78
2.85
3.22
3.28
3.92
4.22
3.81
4.09
3.92
4.14

2.44
2.38
2.27
2.47
2.70
2.89
2.53
2.78
2.93
3.26
3.25
3.92
4.08
3.78
4,01
3.93
4.18

2.44
2.38
2.30
2.56
2.64
2.97
2.48
2.82
3.07
3.32
3.12
4.01
4.18
3.80
3.89
3.97
4,20

2.42
2.38
2.31
2.63
2.57
3.11
2.54
2.81
2.97
3.40
3.14
4.08
4.16
3.73
3.88
3.97
4.16

2.41
2.38
2 .33
2.65
2.61
3,13
2.55
2.82
2.93
3.58
3.20
4.09
3.98
3.88
3.90
4.00
4.13

2.44
2.27
2.34
2.63
2.61
3.02
2.47
2.91
3.00
3.60
3.36
4.11
3.86
3.90
4.02
4.01
4.13

2,45
2.24
2.33
2.57
2.70
3.02
2.48
2.95
3.17
3.63
3.60
4.10
3.79
4.00
3.98
3.99
4.14

2.45
2.22
2.36
2.56
2.71
2.98
2.52
2.92
3.21
3.66
3.75
4.26
3.84
4.02
3.94
4.04
4.16

2.45
2.22
2.38
2.61
2.74
2.83
2.54
2.87
3.20
3.73
3.76
4.11
3.91
3.98
3.89
4.07
4.16

2.44
2.20
2.38
2.6 6
2.71
2.86
2.57
2.8 9
3.30
3.57
3.70
4.12
3.93
3.98
3.87
4.11
4.12

2.44
2.19
2.39
2.70
2.75
2.79
2.59
2.91
3.40
3.30
3.80
4.27
3.88
4.0 6
3.87
4.14
4.14

2.45
2.40
2.24
2.42
2.72
2.84
2.61
2.75
2.89
3.27
3.26
3.92
4.22
3.83
4.06
3.91
4.16

2.42
2.38
2.31
2.61
2.61
3.07
2.52
2.82
2.99
3.43
3.15
4.06
4.11
3.80
3.89
3.98
4.16

2.45
2.24
2.34
2.59
2.67
3.01
2.49
2.93
3.13
3.63
3.57
4.16
3.83
3.97
3.98
4.01
4.14

2.44
2.20
2.38
2.66
2.73
2.83
2.57
2.89
3.30
3.53
3.75
4.17
3.91
4.01
3.88
4.11
4.14

1965...
1966...
1967.,,
1968...
1969,..
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976. . .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

4.14
4.43
4.40
5.18
5,74
6.86
5.92
5.62
5.96
6.56
6.68
6.93
6.68
7.51
8.43
10.03
11.65

4.16
4.61
4.47
5.16
5.86
6.44
5.84
5.67
6.14
6.54
6.66
6.92
7.16
7.60
8.43
11.55
12.23

4.15
4.63
4.45
5.39
6.05
6.39
5.71
5.66
6.20
6.81
6.77
6.88
7.20
7.63
8.45
11.87
12.15

4.15
4.55
4.51
5.28
5.84
6.53
5.75
5.74
6.11
7.04
7.05
6.73
7.13
7.74
8.44
10.83
12.62

4.14
4.57
4.76
5.40
5.85
6.94
5.96
5.64
6.25
7.09
7.01
7.01
7.17
7.87
8.55

4.14
4.63
4.86
5.23
6.05
6.99
5.94
5.59
6.32
7.02
6.86
6.92
6.99
7.94
8.32
9.40
12.39

4.15
4.75
4.86
5.09
6.07
6.57
5.91
5.59
6.53
7.18
6.89
6.85
6.98
8.10
8.35
9.83
13.05

4.19
4.80
4.95
5.04
6.02
6.75
5.78
5.59
6.85
7.33
7.11
6.82
7.01
7.88
8.42
10.53
13.61

4.25
4.79
4.99
5.09
6.32
6.63
5.56
5.70
6.41
7.30
7.28
6.70
6.94
7.82
8.68
10.94
14.14

4.28
4.70
5.19
5.24
6.27
6.59
5.46
5.69
6.25
7.22
7.29
6.65
7.08
8.07
9.44
11.20
14.13

4.34
4.74
5.44
5.36
6.52
6.24
5.48
5.51
6.30
6.93
7.21
6.6 2
7.16
8.16
9.80
11.83
12.68

4.43
4.6 5
5.36
5.66
6.81
5.97
5.62
5.6 3
6.35
6.77
7.17
6.38
7.24
8.36
9.58
11.89
12.88

4.15
4.56
4.44
5.24
5.88
6.56
5.82
5.65
6.10
6.64
6.70
6.91
7.01
7.58
8.44
11.15
12.01

4.14
4.58
4.71
5.30
5.91
6.82
5.88
5.66
6.23
7.05
6.97
6.89
7.10
7.85
8.44
10.02
12.66

4.20
4.78
4.93
5.07
6.14
6.65
5.75
5.63
6.60
7.27
7.09
6.79
6.98
7.93
8.48
10.43

4.35
4.70
5.33
5.42
6.53
6.27
5.52
5.61
6.30
6.97
7.22
6.55

9.82
12.96

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.




13.60

7.16
8.20
9.61
11.64
13.23

2.44
2.31
2.32
2.57

2.68
2.94
2.55
2.84
3.08
3.47
3.43
4.08
4.02
3.90
3.95
4.00
4.15
4.21
4.65
4.85
5.26
6.12
6.58
5.74
5.64
6.31
6.98
7.00
6.78
7.06
7.89
8.74
10.81
12.87

(FEBRUARY 1982)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
116. YIELC

Apr.
ON

NEW

194ff. . .
1949...
1950...
1951
19S2...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
19S»J>...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

2.97
2.66
2.60
2.74
3.08
3.17
3.00
2,99
3.20
4.28
3.62
4.50
5.34
4.63
4.S6
4.22
4.50

2.8 5
2.77
2.58
2.78
2.94
3.26
2.88
3.09
3.07
4.13
3.73
4,60
5.24
4.43
4.53
4.25
4.39

2.99
2.75
2.57
2,90
3,14
3.41
2.74
3.14
3.25
4.18
3.88
4.53
4.98
4.37
4.41
4.28
4.45

2.81
2.74
2.40
3.06
3.09
3.53
2.88
3.11
3.55
4.23
3.67
4.60
4.97
4.57
4.37
4.35
4.48

196!)...
1966...
1967...
1968...
I960...
1970...
197!...
1972...
197J...
1974...

4.45
4.93
5.53
6.57
7.29

4,4 5
5.09
5.35
6.57
7.33
8.84
7.54
7.57
7.67
8.21
8.84
8.71
8.18
0.70
9.52
13.23
14,60

4.49
5.33
S.SS
6.80
7.76
9.00
7.62
7.5 3
7.7 5
8.60
9.48
8.7 3
0.33
8.70
9.65
14.08
14.49

4.48
S.3S
5.59
6.79
7.54
9.09
7.76
7.77
7.70
9.04
9.81
8.68
8.30
8.88
9.69
13.36
15.00

1 9 7 < j . . .

1976...
1977...
197U...
1979...
1980...
1981...

a. oo

7.63
7.36
7.61
8.32
9.17
0.97
7.96
8.70
9.47
11.65
14.01

117. YIELD ON
1941!. . .
194!)..,
1950...
1951...
1952...
19<*:i...
1 9 3f 0 . . .
195 *. . .
1956...
1957...

mu...

1939...
I960. . .
1964,. . .
1962...
i96:.i...
1964...
1964, . .
1966...
1967...
196H...
1969...
1970...
197JI...
1972...
1973...
1911\...
E

1 9 7 i. . .
1976...
1977...

197H. . .
1979...
1980 . . .
iym...

2.,36
2.16
2.06
1.6,1
2.09
2.43
2.50
2.40
2.50
3.18
2.91
3.42
J.72
3.40
3.34
3.10
3.22
3.06
3.52
3.54
4.29
4.85
6.65
5.36
5.12
5.05
5.22
6.82
7.07
5.87
5.71
6.47
7.35
9.68

2.47
2.20
2.03
1.58
2.07
2.55
2.4 2
2.44
2.44
3.00
3 .0 2
3.36
,1.60
3.31
3.21
3.15
3.14
3.09
3.64
3.52
4.31
4.98
6.36
5.23
5.28
5.13
5.20
6.39
6.94
S.89
5.62
6.31
8.16
10.10

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

ISSUES OP HIGH-GRADE CORPORATE BONDS
(PERCENT)

Oct.

2.58
2.98
3.2S
3.80
2.90
3.15
3.48
4.41
3.66
4.92
4.95
4.67
4.32
4.36
4.48

2,83
2.60
2.61
3.01
3.00
3.46
2.94
3.41
4.02
4.78
4.39
4.90
4.65
4.79
4.39
4.34
4.44

2.86
2.40
2.70
2.91
3.14
3.60
3.01
3.27
3.96
4.68
4.56
5.28
4.64
4.72
4.28
4.40
4.49

2.99
2.50
2.64
3.C9
3.36
3.C9
2.64
3.15
3.5 4
4.11
4.4 8
5.27
4 .7 5
4.eo

4.52
5.55
5.90
7.00
7.62
9.53
8.25
7.61
7.69
9.39
9.76
9.00
8.38
9.00
9.82
11.61
15.68

4.57
5.67
6.06
7.02
8.04
9.70
8.15
7.6 3
7.73
9.59
9.27
8,90
8.08
9.15
9.51
11.12
14.97

4.57
5.81
6.06
6.91
8.06
9.09
8.24
7.72
7.97
10.18
9.56
8.76
8.12.
9.27
9.47
11.48
15.67

4.66
6.04
6.30
6.S4
8.05
9.08
8.14
7.59
8.4S
10.30
9.71
8.59
3.06
a.83

4.71
6.14
6.33
6.69
8.36
9.00
7.90
7.72
8.10
10.4 4
9.89
8.37
8.11
8.78
9.87
12.74
16.97

4.70
6.C4
6..E3
6 . £B
8.4 6
9.J4
7.7 2
7.i6
7.£'7

MUNICIPAL BONDS,
(PERCENT)

20-BOND AVERAGE

M Q

HI Q

4.J6
4 . i: 7
4.49

io.;;9

9.S4
8.II5
8.21
9.14
11.1.7
13.17
16.l'6

2.96
2.54
2.63
3.36
3.07
3.13
2,94
3.17
4.29
4.56
4.35
5.14
4.82
4.52
4.23
4.42
4.40

3.15
2.53
2.75
3.22
3.04
3.23
2.87
3.27
4.26
4.04
4.44
5.27
4.94
4.S8
4.28
4.49
4.49

2.94
2.73
2.58
2.81
3.05
3.28
2.87
3.07
3.17
4,20
3.74
4,57
5.19
4.48
4.50
4.25
4.45

2.87
2.7 3
2.54
3.09

3.14
3.7 2
2.90
3.12
3.53
4.48
3.65
4.84
4.94
4.69
4.33
4.34
4.49

2.8 3
2.56
2.62
3.04
3.11
3.5 5
2.96
3.27
3.85
4.611
4.27
5.04
4.69
4.77
4,36
4.36
4.46

4.75
6.11
6.87
7,00
8.94
8.97
7.67
7.4 6
7.95
9.22
9.48
0.17
8.26
9.30
11.52
14.10
IS.53

4.92
5.98
6.93
7.28
9.22
8.13
7.54
7.50
8.09
9.47
9.59
7.90
8.39
9.30
11.30
14.38
15.55

4.46
5.12
5.48
6.65
7.46
8.95
7.60
7.49
7.68
8.38
9.16
0.80
8.16
8.70
9.55
12.99
14.37

4,52
5.53
5.85
6.94
7.73
9.44
8.05
7.67
7.71
9.34
9.61
8.86
8.25
9.01
9.67
12.0 3
15.22

4.6 5
6.00
6.2'J
6.71
8.16
9.06
8,09
7.60
8.17
10.31
9.72
0.5?
8.10
8.96
9.64
12.18
16.13

2.38
2.12
1.74
2.05
2.38
2.62
2.32
2.46
3.16
3.37
3.32
3.55
3.40
3.41
3.04
3.30
3.18

2.26
2.09
1.72
2.09
2.38
2.60
2.36
2.S7
3.22
3.04
3.34
J.68
3.40
3.47
3.07
3.27
3.13

2.43
2.18
2.03
1.64
2.08
2.54
2.44
2.43
2.50
3.09
3.00
3.36
3.63
3.39
3.23
3.10
3.21

2.31
2.16

2.95
3.56
3.57
3.48
3,14
3.14
3.2S

3.46
3.86
4.34
4.60
6.30
S.93
5.20
5.02
5.18
6.61
7.43
6.29
5.49
6.19
7.30
9.56
11.89

3.5 4
3.86
4.43
4.82
6.82
S.46
5.21
5.05
5.12
7.05
7.31
5.94
S.S7
6,SO
7.22
10.20
12.91

3.11
3.63
3.54
4.38
5.0 3
6.3S
5.25
5.24
5.16
5.27
6.65
6.98
5.88
5.65
6.37
8.23
9.98

3.19
3.66
3,82
4.46
5.4 3
6. Q?.
5.74
5.36
5.1(i
5.96
6.96
6.78
5.70
6.02
6.22
7.95
10.69

®

2.4 5
2.18
2.01
1.74
2.0 8
2.65
2.40
2.44
2.57
3.10
3.06
3.30
3.56
3,45
3.14
3.05
3.28

2.37
2.14
2.03
1.94
2.04
2.65
2.47
2.41
2.70
3.13
2.96
3.39
3.56
3.50
3.06
3.10
3.28

2.31
2.14
2.00
2.00
2.06
2.78
2.50
2.38
2.6 8
3.27
2.92
3.58
3.60
3.43
3.11
3.11
3.20

2.24
2.20
1.99
2.19
2.13
2.99
2.48
2.41
2.5 4
3.41
2.97
3.72
3.5 5
3.52
3.26
3.21
3.20

2.27
2.16
2.01
2.15
2.1S
2.98
2.32
2.5 4
2.65
3.40
3.09
3.71
3.50
3.52
3.28
3.22
3.18

2.12
1.83
2.02
2.24
2.90
2.26
2.60
2.80
3.54
3.36
3.58
3.34
3.52
3.23
3.13
3.19

2.41
2.14
1.84
2.01
2.30
2.90
2.31
2.58
2.94
3.54
3.54
3.78
3.42
3.53
3.11
3.20
3.23

3.18
3.72
3.55
4.54
5.26
6.0 3
5.17
5.31
5.29
5.40
6.74
6.92
5.89
5.61
6.3 3
9.17
10.16

3.15
3.56
3.60
4.34
5.19
6.49
S.37
5.4 3
5.15
5.73
6.95
6.60
5.73
5.80
6.29
8.63
10.6 2

3.17
3.6 5
3.89
4.54
5.33
7.00
5.90
5.30
5.14
6.02
6.97
6.87
5.75
6.03
6.25
7.59
10.78

3.24
3.77
3.96
4.SO
5.7 6
6.96
5.95
5.34
5.18
6.13
6.95
6.87
5.62
6.22
6.13
7.63
10.67

3.27
3.95
4.02
4.33
5.7 5
6.53
6.06
5.41
5.40
6.68
7.07
6.79
5.6 3
6.28
6.13
8.13
11.14

3.24
4.12
3.99
4.21
6.00
6.20
5.82
5.30
5.48
6.71
7.17
6.61
5.62
6.12
6.20
8.67
12.26

3.35
4.12
4.12
4.30
6.26
6.2S
5.37
5.36
5.10
6.76
7.44
6.51
5.51
6.09
6.52
8.94
12.92

2.37

IQ

AVERAGK FOR

2.80
2.68
2.55
3.20
3.11
3.59
2.94
3.14
3.56
4.59
3.85
4.95
4.79
4.81
4.41
4.34
4.44

9.57
12.31
16.34

Dec.

IV Q

Annual

(§>

2.93
2.77
2.63
3.24
3.09
3.82
2.91
3.11
3.56
4.81
3.61
5.00
4.91
4.82
4.30
4.32
4.50

2.86
2.69

Nov.

'RRIQ8
3.03
2.5 2
2.67
3.22
3.09
3,15
2.88
3 = 20
4.16
4.44
4.42
5.26
4.84
4.57
4,26
4.43
4.49
4.79
6.04
6.78
7.05
8.87
8.7 5
7,64
7.54
8.00
9.66
9.54
8.11
8.29
9.25
11.3 3
11.88

16.01

2.9?,
2.64
2.60
3.04
3.10
3.4 a
2.90
3.17
3.6«
4.4!*
4.0*1
4,91
4.92
4.63
4.36
4.34
4.47
4.61
5,6?
6.08
6. H 4
8.06
9.05
7 .ti5
7.59
?.«')
9.4 2
9.51
8.'i*>
U.20
8.9H
10.05
12.77
15,411

AVERAKh l-'OH

2.<2
2.16
1.19
2.C6
2.1®

2.15
2.:.4
2.5 1
2 . £'5
3.<2
3.^5
3.6 2
3.5 3
3.'.2
3 . Ci2
3.20
3.;: 5
3.40
3.5i4
4.10
4.^.9
6.(19

6.:sa
5.0 6
5.18
5.£15
6.!.7
7.IJ9
6.:IO

5.(.4
6.X 3
7.(18
9.1.1
12.ii3

2.01
2.04
2.08
2 An
2.48
2.40
2.64
3.27

'A. 1 H

2.14
1.B9
2.06
2.23
'A. 9 3
2.30
2.57
2.80
3.49
3.33
3.69
3.4 2
3.52

:uai

n.18
3.ao

3.29
<3.O6
4.04

4.31

ft. 01)
6.13

5.75
5.36
5.33

6.7 2
7.23
6.64
.(t.S9
6.16
6.28
8.58
12.11

iJ.-Vi
2.12

2. in

1.75
2.07
2.38
3.66
^.34
2.51
3.11
3.28
3.37
1.6 2
1.44
:i. 4 3
1.04
3.26
1.19

1.92
1. y' *
2.1')
i!. V i

-J.4?
3.89
4.36
4.64
6.40
S.93
5.16
5.0 8
!t.i12
6.74
7.38
6.18
5.57
6.27
7.20
9.6 2
12.54

a. w

2.48
2.7 6
3 . ait
3.16
3.56
3.*.>2
3.4 6
3.16
1.17
3.5U
l.^fi
3 . tt 1
3.94
4.45
5.7 2
6,15
S.4H
5.26
5.19
6.17
7.0 5
6.64
5.6 a
6.02
$.'»?.
8.60
11, H

118. S FXONPARY MARKET YIELDS ON fc'Hft MORTGAGES
AVEItAOf! POK \ nmioi)

(PfeJUCKNT)

1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
195 5 . . .
19SG...
1957...

4.35
4.31
4.08
4.26
4.34
4.75
4.56
4 .73

195(1...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962..,
1961. . .
1964. . .

5! 58
5.60
6.24
6.00
5.69
5.52
5.4 5

1965...
1966. . .
1967...
1968...
1969...
1971). . .
1971. . .
1972. . .
1973...
1974. . .
1973,..
197G, . .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1900.,.
198.L...

5.45
5.70
6.62
6.81

7*. 49
7.55
9.06
8.45
9.18
10.24
12.60
14.23

4.35
4.31
4,08
4.27
4.34
4.69
4.56
4.79
5.36
5.56
5.58
6.23
5.89
5.68
5.48
5.45

4.35
4.30
4.12
4.29
4.34
4.64
4.59
4.68
S.35
5.51
S.5 7
6.22
5.82
5.65
5.4 7
5.45

5.45

5.45
6.00
6.35
6.8 3
0.0 5
9.20
7.32
7.45
7.63
8.66
8.69

6.4 6
6.78
7.99
9.29
7.46
7.56
8.54
8.8 4
9.04
8.55
10.24

8.65
9.35
10.26
14.63
15.04

6.21

4.35
4.09
4.29
4.30
4.67
4.57
4.63
4.81
S.35
5.37
5.71
6.19

5^60
5.45
5.45

5.59
5.45
5.45

5.45
6.32
6.44

5.44
6.45
6.51
7.52
8.35
9.16
7.8 9
7.54
7.89
9.46
9.06
9.05
8.77

4.35

4.34

4!l9
4.29

4^7
4.29

4.6 2
4.60
4 .71
5.35
5.43

4.59
4.63
4.78
5.32
5.39
5.64

5.58
6.21
5.77
5.64
5.46
5.45
5.45
6.29
6.94
8.06
9.10
7.37
7.50
7.73
9.17
8.82
8.64
9.44

8.06
9.11
7.75
7.53
7.79
9.46
9.16
9.03
9.74
10.61
11.99
16.33

4.34
4.08

4.31
4.30
4.74
4.56
4.64
4.81
5.38
5.35
5.7S
6.18
5.60
5.58
5.45
5.46
5.44
6.SI
6.53
7.42
8.36
9.11
7.97
7.54
8.19
9.85
9.13
0.99
8.77
9.96
10.4 6
12.39
16.76

4.34
4.08
4.31
4.30
4.82
4.S6
4.67
4.87

4.32
4.08
4.30
4.30
4.06
4.56
4.70
4.92

sii?

s!so

4.°'3
4 . US
5.63
5.57

6.11
5.69
5.56
5.45
5.46

6.09
5.' ( 0
5.55
5.4 5
5.45

5.46
6.63
6.63
7.28
8.40
9.01
7.84
7.56
9.18
10.38
9.74
0.02
8.74
9.81
11.37
14.26
18.55

5.-19

5.80
6.14
5.60
5.S7
5.45
5.46

5.45
6.58
6.60
7.35
3.36
9.07
7.92
7.S5
10." 30
9.32
8.93
B.77
9.81
10.50
13. S 4
17.96

io!49
13^45
11.85
15,91
14.79
16.31
NOTE: Those series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.

100



4.112
4.08
4.1!7
4. Ill
4.112
4.5P6

6.6 5
7.i!9
8.'18
8.SI7
7.7 5
7.57
8.97
10. 13
9.5 3
8.5 5
8.1)1
9.90
14 !:J8
17.43

4.32
4.08
4.27
4.32
4.81
4.56
4.75

4.32
4.08
4.26
4.32
4.78
4.56
4.73

$'.&!
5.60
6.23
6.05
5.70
5.54
5.45
5.45

5.* 61
5.60
6.23
6.04
5.69
5.53
5.45
5.45

5.SI
6.81
6.77
7.36
8.48
8.90
7.62
7.57
U.06

5.62
6.77
6.81
7.SO
U.62
8.40
7.59
7.56
8.70
9.SI
9.32
B.28
8.96
10.23
12.24
14.08
16.43

9-41
8.45
8.81
10.04
12.41
14.47
15.98

4.35
4.31
4.09
4.27
4.34
4.69
4.57
4.70
5.55

s.sa

6.23
5.90
5.6?
5.49
5.45

4.35
. ..
4.25
4.29

4i 59
4.62
4.77
5.34
5.40
5.64
6.20
5.61
5.4 5
5.45

5.4 5

5.4 5

6'.48
6.81

6!ii

7! 47
7.58

a! 16
9.12
7.67
7.52
7.80
9.36

H'.H4

8.97
8.55
10.2S
14!69

...
12.43
16.18

4.31
4.08
4.31
4.10
4.81
4.56
4.67
4.87
5! 41
6.14
S.6B
5.57
5.45
b.46
5.4 5
6.5?
6.59
7.35
8.37
9.06
7.91
7.55
J0!l8
9.40
8.91
8.76
9.86
10.80
11.40
17.76

4.32
4.08
4.27
4.3 2
4.80
4.56
4,74
5^62
5.59
...
6.06
5.70
5.54
5.45
5.4 5

4 .' }4
4,' ?,\
4,10
, . .

4.60

5,49
•• .
6.16
5.60
5.46
5.45

5.54

5.47

6.74
7.38
8.53
8.7 6
7.65
7.57
8.87

6 .56

siiz
8.43
8.8 6
10.08

7 *. !i \
.. •
...

•

14.31
16.61

leiii
(FEBRUARY 1982)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Fob.

Mar.

Apr.

May
119.

June

July

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE
(PERCENT)

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

Annual

©
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1949 . . .
1952. . .
1953
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959. . .
1960...
1961. . .
1962. . .
1963...
1964. . .

1.37
2.44
2.93
2.72
2.48
3.99
1.45
2.14
2.91
3.48

1.29
2.50
3.00
1.67
2.40
3.97
2.54
2.37
3.00
3.48

1.35
2.50
2.96
1.20
2.80
3.84
2.02
2.70
2.98
3.43

1.43
2.62
3.00
1.26
2.96
3.92
1.50
2.69
2.90
3.47

1.43
2.75
3.00
0.63
2.90
3.85
1.98
2.29
3.00
3.50

1.62
2.71
3.00
0.93
3.39
3.32
1.73
2.68
2.99
3.50

1.68
2.74
2.99
0.68
3.44
3.23
1.16
2.71
3.02
3.42

1.21
1.90
2.74
3.24
1.53
3.50
2.98
2.00
2,.93
3,49
3.50

1.07
2.18
2.95
3.50
1.76
3.76
2.60
1.88
2.90
3.48
3.45

0.90
2.24
2.96
3.50
1.80
3.98
2.47
2.26
2.90
3.50
3.36

0 .91
2.35
2.88
3.22
2.27
4.00
2.44
2.62
2.94
3.43
3.52

1.26
2.48
2.94
2.98
2.42
3.99
1.98
2.33
2.93
3.38
3.85

1^34
2.48
2.96
1.8fi
2.56
3.93
2.00
2.40
2.96
3.46

1M9
2.69
3.00
0.94
3.08
3.70
1.74
2.55
2.96
3.49

1.92
2.81
3.24
1.32
3.57
2.94
1.60
2.85
3.33
3.46

1965...
1966...
1967.. .
1968...
1969. . .
1970...
1971.. .
1972. . .
1973. . .
1974. . .
1975. . .
1976. . .
1977. . .
1978. . .
1979. . .
1980...
1981. . .

3.90
4.42
4.94
4.60
6.30
8.98
4.14
3.50
5.94
9.65
7.13
4.87
4.61
6.70
10.07
13.82
19.08

3.98
4.60
5.00
4.72
6.64
8*98
3.7 2
3.29
6.58
8.97
6.24
4,77
4.68
6.78
10.06
14.13
15.93

4.04
4.65
4.53
5.05
6.79
7.76
3.71
3.83
7.09
9.35
5.54
4.84
4.69
6.79
10.09
17.19
14.70

4.09
4.67
4.05
5.76
7.41
8.10
4.15
4.17
7.12
10.51
5.49
4.82
4.73
6.89
10.01
17.61
15.72

4,10
4.90
3.94
6.12
8.67
7.94
4.63
4.27
7.84
11.31
5.22
5.29
5.35
7.36
10.24
10.98
18.52

4.04
5.17
3.98
6.07
8.90
7.60
4.91
4.46
8.49
11.93
5.55
5.48
5.39
7.60
10.29
9.47
19.10

4.09
5.30
3.79
6.02
3.61
7.21
5.31
4.55
10.40
12.92
6.10
5.31
5.42
7.81
10.47
9.03
19.04

4.12
5.53
3.89
6.03
9.19
6.61
5.57
4.80
10.50
12.01
6.14
5.29
5.90
8.04
10.94
9.61
17.82

4.01
5.40
4.00
5.78
9.15
6.29
5.55
4.87
10.78
11.34
6.24
5.25
6.14
8.45
11.43
10.87
15.87

4.08
5.53
3.88
5.92
9.00
6.20
5.20
5.04
10.01
10.06
5.82
5.03
6.47
8.96
13.77
12.81
15.08

4.10
5.77
4.12
5.81
8.85
5.60
4.91
5.06
10.0 3
9.45
5.22
4.95
6.51
9.76
13.10
15.85
13.31

4.32
5.40
4.51
6.02
8.97
4.90
4.14
5.33
9.95
8.53
5.20
4,65
6.56
10.0 3
13.78
18.90
12.37

3.97
4.56
4.82
4.79
6.58
8.57
3.86
3.54
6.54
9.32
6.30
4.83
4.66
6.76
10.07
15.05
16.57

4.08
4.91
3.99
5.98
8.33
7.88
4.56
4.30
7.82
11.25
5.42
5.20
5.16
7,28
10.18
12.69
17.78

4.07
5.41
3.89
5.94
8.98
6.70
5.48
4.74
10.56
12.09
6.16
5.28
5.82
8.10
10.95
9.84
17.58

26.4
77.8
48.6
48.6
58.3
23.6
76.4
59.7
48.6
31.9
90.3
38.9
54.2
59.7
79.2
52.8
72.2

27.8
59.7
33.3
55.6
61.1
43.6
79.2
36.1
47.2
16.7
66.7
33.9
31.9
73.6
54.2
59.7
61.1

54.S
59.7
43.6
60.8
39.9
79.2
55.9
43.8
34,7
73.6
50.7
41.0
71.9
56.2
59.7
63.9

47.2
30.6
77.8
63.9
40.3
59.7
44.4
76.4
37.5
19.5
69.4
44.4
56.9
52.8
43.1
86.1

66.7
34.7
61.1
65.3
26.4
56.9
77.8
77.8
56.9
15.3
5S.6
54.2
68.0
52.8
26.4
61.1

59.7
39.9
65.3
59.4
38.9
47.9
61.8
72.2
47.9
28.1
62.8
56.9
58.7
54.2
40.6
53.5

950.

1948...
1949. . .
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956.. .
1957...
195Q...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964. . .
1965...
1966. . .
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971. . .
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975. . .
1976. . .
1977...
1978...
1979. . .
1980...
1931...

1965. . .
1966.. .
1967...
1968. . .
1969. . .
1970.. .
1971. . .
1972. . .
1973. . .
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977.. .
1978. . .
1979...
1980...
1981...

4.17
5.57
4.17
5.92
3.94
5.57
4.75
5.14
10.00
9.35
5.41
4.88
6.SI
9.58
13.58
15.85
13.59

!'.!
2.73
3.11
1.57
3.30
3.22
1.96
2.60
3.18
3.50
4.07
5.11
4.22
5.66
8.21
7.17
4.66
4.44
8.74
10.51
5.82
5.05
5.54
7.93
11.19
13.36
16.38

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

29.2
75.0
58.3
79.2
62.5
58.3
75.0
37.5
33.3
50.3
83.3
37.5
58.3
54.2
66.7
54.2

20.0
45.8
91.7
54.2
66.7
45.8
83.3
91.7
25.0
33.3
4 5.8
75.0
25.0
66.7
70.8
83.3
50.0

60.0
41.7
70.8
45.8
58.3
70.8
66.7
58.3
50.0
50.0
58.3
75.0
8.3
87.5
58.3
50.0
54.2

60.0
33.3
95.8
41,7
33.3
37.5
83.3
54.2
66.7
29.2
70.8
54.2
58.3
100.0
45.8
66.7
87.5

40.0
50.0
75.0
41.7
58.3
33.3
91.7
45.8
25.0
58.3
87.5
58.3
50.0
70.8
16.7
75.0
62.5

54.2
41.7
62.5
29.2
75.0
12.5
100.0
58.3 .
33.3
66.7
91.7
29.2
54.2
79.2
29.2
37.5
58.3

25.0
75.0
66,7
33,3
50.0
33.3
79.2
70.8
58.3
37.5
79.2
33.3
54.2
66,7
91,7
37.5
75.0

20.8
75.0
54.2
45.8
50.0
29.2
66.7
54.2
45.8
33.3
91.7
41.7
50.0
70.8
70.8
41.7
66.7

33.3
83.3
25.0
66.7
75.0
8.3
83.3
54.2
41.7
25.0
100.0
41.7
58.3
41.7
75.0
79.2
75.0

45.8
54.2
45.8
50.0
54.2
50.0
100.0
25.0
50.0
25.0
66.7
25.0
25.0
83.3
45.8
79.2
58.3

12,5
66.7
20.8
50.0
62.5
33.3
83.3
58.3
54.2
0.
87.5
41.7
33.3
75.0
54.2
41.7
75.0

25.0
58.3
33.3
66.7
66.7
62.5
54.2
2S.0
37.5
25.0
45.8
50.0
37.5
62.5
62.5
58.3
50.0

38.9
79.2
52.8
68.1
59.7
69.4
75.0
37.5
38.9
54.1
77.8
23.6
70.8
61.1
66.7
52.8

51.4
41.7
77,8
37.5
55.5
27.8
91.7
52.8
41.7
51.4
83.3
47.2
54.2
83.3
30.6
59.7
69.4

66.7
70.8
50.0
33.3
58.3
16.7
66.7
87.5
62.5
41.7
20.8
83.3
45.8
45.8
58.3
41.7

70.8
66.7
41.7
66.7
37.5
33.3
66.7
75.0
62.5
62.5
33.3
50.0
50.0
62.5
41.7
29.2

62.5
58.3
54.2
50.0
25.0
41.7
87.5
79.2
41.7
45.8
58.3
58,3
83,3
41.7
66.7
33.3

50.0
37.5
66.7
29.2
66.7
41.7
45.8
58.3
33.3
33.3
83.3
50.0
50.0
66.7
25.0
12.5

70.8
29.2
75.0
66.7
37.5
62.5
50.0
37.5
54.2
33.3
91.7
66.7
41.7
54.2
45.8
33.3

54.2
20.8
79.2
79.2
41.7
29.2
58.3
66.7
37.5
16.7
91.7
79.2
58.3
62.5
41.7
50.0

58,3
29.2
79.2
58,3
29.2
58.3
45.8
66.7
37,5
16.7
83.3
50.0
45.8
45.8
45.8
83.3

45.8
33.3
100.0
50.0
41.7
41.7
37.5
75.0
29.2
16.7
. 62.5
37.5
70.8
50.0
29.2
83.3

37.5
29.2
54.2
83.3
50.0
79.2
50.0
87.5
45.8
25.0
62.5
45.8
54.2
62.5
54.2
91.7

66.7
29.2
37.5
66.7
33.3
58.3
75.0
79.2
70.8
12.5
62.5
37.5
75.0
54.2
16.7
62.5

70.8
33.3
70.8
66.7
20.8
45.8
66.7
75.0
66.7
8.3
62.5
75.0
70.8
37.5
20.8
70.8

62.5
41.7
75.0
62.5
25.0
66.7
91.7
79.2
33.3
25.0
41.7
50.0
53.3
66.7
41.7
50.0

66.7
65.3
48.6
50.0
40.3
30.6
73.6
80.6
55.6
50.0
37.5
63.9
59.7
50.0
55.6
34.7

58.3
29.2
73.6
58.4
43.6
44.5
51.4
54.2
41.7
27.8
83.9
65.3
50.0
61.1
37.5
31.9

17 .8
91.7
59.7
33.3
80.5
11.1
97.2
63.9
43.0
5.6
100.0
11.1
45.8
91.7
65.3
68.1
79.2

13 . 9
94.4
33.3
69.4
75.0
33.3
97.2
34.7
40.3
9.7
91.7
16.7
38.9
84.7
86.1
79.2
75.0

68.4
68.8
43.4
73.2
26.7
90.6
64.6
34.7
13.2
88.2
38.2
36.8
90.3
56.6
76.0
81.6

80.5
12.5
97.2
91.7
5.6
47.2
62.5
93.1
30.6
2.8
80.6
56.9
63.9
70.8
38.9
88.9

86.1
34.7
70.8
80.6
11.1
80.6
94.5
83.9
27.8
8.3
83.3
59.7
69.5
61.1
34.7
72.2

68.4
33.7
74.6
74.3
25.4
46.2
75.0
91.7
39.6
11.4
76.4
63.8
69.8
60.8
36.8
51.0

950.

1940. .
1949.. .
1950.. .
1951.. .
1952. . .
1953. . .
1954. . .
1955. . .
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959. . .
1960. . .
1961...
1962...
1963. . .
1964...

DIFFUSION INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATOR COMPONENTS
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)

1.022.36
2.93
3.23
2.16
3.99
2.30
2.40
2,92
3.45
3.58

DIFFUSION INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATOR COMPONENTS
{PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS)

25.0
95.8
41.7
58.3
62.5
58.3
91.7
33.3
8.3
41.7
91.7
25.0
70.8
62.5
87.5
83.3

25.0
100.0
45.8
66.7
41.7
0 3.3
83.3
25.0
16.7
541.2
03.3
41.7
100.0
20.8
100.0
03.3

25.0
100.0
37.5
70.8
25.0
87.5
83.3
25.0
8.3
95.8
83.3
8.3
91.7
29.2
83.3
91.7

45.0
41.7
100.0
29.2
75.0
25.0
91.7
75.0
25.0
20.8
91.7
54.2
16.7
91.7
41.7
83.3
91.7

54.2
83.3
41.7
62.5
66.7
16.7
91.7
100.0
75.0
25.0
25.0
83.3
91.7
58.3
33.3
0.

54.2
66.7
41.7
50.0
45.8
25.0
91.7
91.7
58.3
20.8
33.3
91.7
79.2
54.2
41.7
16.7

62.5
45.8
62.5
50.0
33.3
25.0
75.0
83.3
62.5
25.0
75.0
79.2
70.8
58.3
41.7
8.3

45.8
25.0
70.8
83.3
29.2
37.5
70.8
83.3
50.0
25.0
91.7
75.0
58.3
54.2
41.7
16.7

30.0
91.7
66.7
33.3
83.3
8.3
95.8
70.8
25.0
25.0
100.0
25.0
62.5
100.0
41.7
62.5
83.3

20 .0
91,7
66.7
33.3
75.0
•8.3
100.0
58.3
20.8
16.7
100.0
16.7
50.0
91.7
45.8
66,7
66.7

16 .7
91.7
62.5
33.3
83.3
8.3
100.0
75.0
58.3
0.
100.0
0.
45.8
91.7
66.7
66.7
83.3

16.7
91.7
50.0
33.3
83.3
16.7
91.7
50.3
50.0
0.
100.0
16.7
41.7
91.7
83.3
70.8
87.5

16 .7
83.3
37.5
58.3
03.3
25.0
91.7
58.3
54.2
8.3
91.7
25.0
41.7
83.3
91.7
70.8
83.3

8 .3
100.0
16 .7
75.0
83.3
33.3
100.0
20.8
33.3
0.
91.7
25.0
37.5
83.3
87.5
87.5
75.0

16 .7
100.0
45.8
75.0
58.3
41.7
100.0
25.0
33.3
20.8
91.7
0.
37.5
87.5
79.2
79.2
66.7

25.0
98.6
41.7
65.3
43.1
76.4
86.1
27.8
11.1
63.9
86.1
25.0
87.5
37.5
90.3
86.1

38.3
62.5
83 .3
29.2
72.2
19.4
91.7
73.6
27.8
26.4
97.2
38.9
37.5
97.2
37.5
66.7
36.1

50.0
16.7
83.3
58.3
37.5
33.3
58.3
100.0
25.0
8.3
100.0
75.0
83.3
50.0
33.3
45.8

54.2
25.0
91.7
70.8
41.7
33,3
41.7
95.8
29.2
0.
100.0
70.8
54.2
58.3
29.2
41.7

83.3
16.7
100.0
91.7
16.7
33.3
54.2
95.8
33.3
8.3
91.7
50.0
62.5
62.5
37.5
75.0

70.8
8.3
100.0
91.7
0.
41.7
66.7
91.7
29.2
0.
83.3
62.5
58.3
83.3
33.3
100.0

87.5
12.5
91.7
91.7
0.
66.7
66.7
91.7
29.2
0.
66.7
58.3
70.8
66.7
45.8
91.7

91.7
20.8
70.8
91.7
16.7
66.7
91.7
91.7
25.0
0.
83.3
50.0
66.7
66.7
41.7
75.0

83.3
33.3
70.8
83.3
8.3
75.0
91.7
91.7
33.3
8.3
83.3
62.5
75.0
66.7
45.8
66.7

83.3
50.0
70.8
66.7
8.3
100.0
100.0
83.3
25.0
16.7
83.3
66.7
66.7
50.0
16.7
75.0

57.0
65.3
43.6
54.2
48.6
22.2
86.1
91.7
65.3
23.6
44.4
84.7
80.6
56.9
38.9
8.3

50.0
22.2
81.9
70.8
36.1
34.7
56.9
93.0
34.7
11.1
97.2
73.6
65.3
54.2
34.7
34.7

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.




AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

40.0
54.2
83.3
25.0
58.3
25.0
87.5
75.0
33.3
33.3
100.0
37.5
33.3
100.0
29.2
54.2
83.3

(FEBRUARY 1982)

101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

12.5
100.0

2S.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
100.0

IQ

951. DIFFUSION INDEX OP 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR COMPONENTS
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
1948..,,
1949.. •
1950..,.
19S1...
1932...
1953...
19S4...
1955...
19S6...
1957,..,
1950., .
19S9...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965. . .
1966...
1967..,
1960...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972. . .
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976. . .
1977.,.
1970. . .
1979...
1980...
1981. . .

...

75.0

75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
50.0
2S.0

50.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
25.0
SQ.O
87.5
100.0
1OQ.0

o!'

0.

75.0
100.0
SQ.O
25.0
62.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
0.

100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.

100.0
25.0
2S.0
2S.0
100.0

0.

100.0
100.0
37.5
75.0
100.0
75.0
25.0
75.0
100.0
25.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
25.0
951.

1948. . .
1949...
1950. . .
1951...
19S2...
1953...
1954,..
1955...
1956...
1957. . .
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965. . .
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969.,.
1970. . .
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1973...
1976...
1977...
1978..,
1979...
1980...
1981...

0.

100.0
7S.0
100.0
100.p
0.

100.0
100.0
50.0
0.

0.

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.

lOO.O
62.S
62.S
0.

75.0
25.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
0.

100.0
62.5
62.S
Q.

100.0
0.

100.0
100.0
100.0
62.5
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100,0
62.5
87.5
100.0
75.0
50.0
12.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.

0.

100.0
75.0
62.5
100.0
25.0
100,0
50,0
50.0
0.

100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100,0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0

100.0
100.0
7S.Q
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0

100.0
100,0
75.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
7 5.0
25.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
87.5

0.

0.

75.0
25.0
100.0
50.0
62.S
50.0
SO.O
100.0
2S.0
0.
75.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
62.5
75.0
100.0

100.0
37.5
100.0
SO.O
50.0
50.0
75,0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
SO.O
100.0
75.0

62.5
0.
100.0
12.S
0.
62.5
50.0
10Q.O
0.
62.S
100.0
2S.0
0.
75.0
100.0
62.S
100.0

62.S
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
0.
25.0
50.0
100.0
62.5
75.0
0.
0.
100.0
100.0
75.0
75.0

100.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
2S.0
100,0
100.0
62.5
2S.0
75.0
100.0
75,0
100.0
12.5
0,

7S.0
7S.0
62.5
100.0
50.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
7S.0
100.0
7S.0
75.0
SO.O
75.0
0.

100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
62.5
75.0
75-0
75.0
75.0
87.5
100.0
7S.0
7S.0
25.0

100.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
7S.0
75.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
25.0

75.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
25.0
37.S
100.0
37.5
12.5
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
50.0
75.0

§0.0

100.0
50.0
25.0
100.0
0.

100.0
100,0
100.0

0.

75.0
87.5
87.5
25.0
100.0
7S.0
100.0

SO.O
75.0
50.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
75.0

0.

100.0
100.0
100.0

0.

0.

0.

0.

100.0
25.0
25.0
62. S
50.0
lOO.O
100.0

100.0
SO.O
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
12.5

100 .0
75.0

75.0
100,0
25.0
100.Q
37. S
75.0
100.Q

87.5
7S.0
75.0
87.5
87.5
50.0
87.5
75.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
50.0
75.0
62.5
SO.O
100,0

100.0
100.0
SO.O
100.0
100.0

0.

100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.

100 .0
0.
100.0
50.0
SO.O
100.0
50.0
100,0
25.0
62,5
37.5
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100 . 0
0.
100.0
SO.O
100.0
62.5
25.0
100.0
62.5
25.0
75.0
75.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
50.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
0.
62.S
100.0
100.0
2S.0
100.0
50.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
0.

75.0
50.0

50.0
SO.O

100.0
50.0
100.0
0.
50.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
12.5
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
75.0
100.0
0.
100.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
100.0
25.0
0.
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
SO.O
100.0

100.0
100.0
7S.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
7S.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
7 5.0
0.

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
7S.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
SO.Q
0.

100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
SO.O
100.0
100.0
7S.0
SO.O
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
0.

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
50.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0

0.

100.0
100.0
100.0
0.

100.0
50.0
0.

0.

0.

100.0
100.0
37.5
100.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
0.
0.

1U0.0
87.5
100.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0

62.5
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
2S.0
100.0
100.0
62.S
100.0

100,0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
87, S

75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

0.
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0

0 .
75.0
7 5.0
100.0
100.0

0.
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0

0.

0.

8*. 3

73.0
66.7
75.0
1OO.0
25.0
100.0
54.2
62. 5
4.2

91.7
41.7
66.7
70.8
87. 5
87,5
91.7
100.0
70.8
66.7
100.0
43.8
70.8
91.7
91.7
41.7
12.5
100.0
7 3.0
66.7
66.7
41,7

0.

100.0
100.0
100.0
0.

100.0
100.0
0.

0.

100,0
100.0
100.0
0.

100.0
100.0
0.

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.Q
100.0
87.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
SQ.O
100.0
100.0
SO.O

100.0
100.0
1DQ.0
100.0
50.0
SO.Q
100.0
100.0
50.0

0.

0.

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
7S.0
100.0

0.

100.0
7S.0
100.0
0.

100.0
100.0
2S.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
73,0
100.0

100.0
7S.0
1OD.0
10O.O
50.0
7S.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.
100.0
100.0
1OO.0
100.0
25.0
10Q.0

66.7
25,0
75.0
83.3
58.3
41.7
75,0
100.0
91,7
58.3
66.7
50.0
75.0
50.0
58.3
91.7
41.7

2S.0
41.7
66.7
100.0
91.7
41.7
41.7
50.3
50.0
66.7
91.7
SQ.O
SO.O
75.0
66.7
7S.0
58.3

7S.0
75.0
58.3
83.3
75.0
33.3
33.3
83.3
75.0
50.0
16.7
58.3
100.0
100.0
41.7
SO.O

66.7
75.0
83.3
83.3
66.7
16.7
50.0
91.7
91.7
50.0
33.3
66.7
75.0
83.3
50.0
66.7

0.

0.

0."

100.0
83.3
87.5
100.0
8.3

100.0
70.B
S4.2
0.

100.0
83.3
66.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
73.0
100.0
100.0
41.7
100 .0
100.0
100.0
50.0
0.

1O0.O
100.0
100.0
70.8
8.3

952. DIFFUSION INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATOR COMPONENTS
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
195.2...
1953...
1954...
1953...
19SS...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961. . .
1962...
1963. , .
1964...
196!>...
1966. . .
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
197!?...

1976...
1977...
1970, . .
197!)...
1980...
19B1...

§0.0
75.0
100.0
75.0
58.3
41.7
66.7
91.7
75.0
33.3
S8.3
S8.3
25.0
91.7
S8.3
41.7

75.0
41.7
41.7
75.0
91.7
7 5.0
25.0
75.0
91.7
58.3
25.0
83.3
91.7
25.0
75.0
§8.3
66.7

75.0
41.7
58.3
58.3
50.0
100.0
16.7
41.7
03.3
91.7
16.7
75.0
7S.0
16.7
91.7
66,7
7S.0

58.3
41.7
75.0
75.0
75.0
66.7
8.3
66.7
100.0
83.3
0.
83.3
91.7
25.0
7S.0
66.7
66.7

75.0
41.7
S8.3
75.0
91.7
S8.3
8.3
91.7
83.3
66.7
8.3
83.3
83.3
8.3
91.7
91.7
83.3

91.7
41.7
S8.3
58.3
50.0
75.0
33.3
75.0
75.0
83.3
25.0
75.0
41.7
41.7
7S.0
83.3
58.3

83.3
33.3
75.0
83.3
41.7
41,7
25.0
100.0
SO.O
83.3
8.3
75.0
33.3
75.0
75.0
75.0
91.7

83.3
66.7
83.3
66.7
75.0
66.7
66.7
7S.0
75.0
91.7

41.7
7S.0
66.7
66.7
75.0
41.7
25.0
83.3
75.0
41.7
58.3
91.7
SO.O
58.3
83.3
75.0
58.3

75.0
83.3
66.7
7S.Q
83.3
58.3
33.3
16.7
100.0
75.0
25.0
41.7
66.7
100.0
83.3
41.7

66.7
7S.0
66.7
75,0
83.3
41.7
83.3
50,0
100.0
66.7
16.7
66.7
75.0
100.0
75.0
66.7

75.0
83.3
66.7
75.0
75.0
SO.O
SO.O
75.0
83.3
50.0
16.7
S8.3
91.7
91.7
7S.0
50.0

75.0
100.0
50.0
66.7
91.7
41.7
33.3
66.7
100.0
S8.3
0.
75.0
75.0
66.7
91.7
66.7

75.0
83.3
75.0
83.3
83.3
41.7
58.3
100.0
66.7
83.3
0.
7S.0
83.3
100.0
75.0
33.3

75.0
83.3
66,7
75.0
100.0
75.0
41.7
50.0
100.0
66.7
0.
83.3
100.0
91.7
83.3
33.3

66.7
75.0
66.7
S8.3
58.3
58.3
66.7
66.7
75.0
66.7
50.0
SO.O
75.0
83.3
66.7
41.7

7S.0
66.7
58.3
91.7
S8.3
75.0
91.7
66.7
83.3
83.3
33.3
58.3
91.7
83.3
83.3
33.3

66.7
50.0
66.7
66.7
7S.0
33.3
58.3
83.3
83.3
7S.0
16.7
83.3
83.3
83.3
75.0
33.3

75.0
41.7
41,7
66.7
91.7
3 3.3
33.3
75.0
83,3
50.0
66.7
58 .3
91.7
66 ,7
83 ,3
50,0

8.3

NOTE: TlKise series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.

102



IV Q

Annual

100.0
§4.2
S4.2
SB. 3
50.0
31.7
66,7
29.2
5B.3
100.0
45.8
91.7
70.8
91.7
91.7
91.7
03.3
79.2
91.7
75.0
23.0
87.3
91.7
70.8
38. 3
83.3
87.5
83.3
75.0
34.2
8.3

66.7
20 .8
SB. 3
8 3.;*
66.7
41.7
91.7
16.7
8.3

7 9.2
03.3
79.2
91.7
87.3
83.3
8 3.3
19.2
93,8
S8.3
66.7
83.3
70.8
37.5
100.0
8 3.3
73.0
79.2
66.7
66,7

100.0
16.7
100.0
50.0
83.3
54.2
4S.8
100.0
62.3
37.5
70.8
75.0
33.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
91.7
100.0
100.0
33.3
100.0
1O0.O
83.3
50.0
91.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
SO.Q
0.

17.3
SB.3
73.0
79.2

16! 7
100.0
91.7
91.7

38 !?i
a 3.3
!iV. 3
68.8

0.

3 W. 1
9 1.1
69.8
33.3

91.7
7 3.0
16.7
100.0
79.2
70.8
70.8

ay.i
34.4
76.0
32.3
33.4

100.0
79.2
83.3
91.7
58.3
33.3
87.5
100.0
7S.0
8.3

91.7
73.0
100.0
100.0
70.8

93.8

70! 8

3 2.7
3fi.3
79.2
32.3
3 2.3
40.6
7H . 1

91.7
77.1
36,3
7,1.9
(J6.3
«0.2
(54.6
33.1

FOR PKRXOD
75. 0

33.3
100.0
58.3
10 0. 0

0 .

91.7
7 3.0
180.0
100.0

0.

0.

8 3.3
100.0
100.0
12 .5
100.0
29.2
a. 3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
91.7
100.0

100.0
100.0
lOO.O
130.Q
9 3. a
0.

A00 .0
4.0 0.0
10 0.0
8.3

100.0
A90.0
130.0
100.0
7 5.0
33.3

0.

100.0
100.0
8,3

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
100.0
100.0
50.0
311.3
100 .0
100.0
30.0
0.

1OO.0
100.0
100.8
XOO.0
38,3
100,0

)S.*4
*) .3 . 'i\
12.9

'i'A.'t
•Jfi.'i
39,4
97.9
tj 2. ^
26.0
1)7.7
'Mi.O
13. »
91.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
9 3.8
H.7
100.0
1*6,3
13.3
100.0
100.0
H3. 1
27.1
? 2. *)

iod.0

100.0
1(10.0
63,3

AVE HAGH FOR PE3RXQI)

58.3
58.3
41.7
66.7
50.0
91.7
41.7
75.0
7S.0
25.0
16.7
75.0
91.7
41.7
41.7
S8.3
91.7

75.0
41.7
91.7
75.0
7S.0
75.0

58.3
66.7
03.3

75.0
20,8

AV1J RAGK

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

III Q

AVERAGE FOR PKRXO1)

7S.0

DIFFUSION INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR COMPONENTS
(PERCENT RISING OVER 6 -MONTH SPANS)

100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

0.

50.0
0.
100.0
62.5
50.0
7S.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
12.5
0.
100.0
75.0
7S.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

II Q

50 .0
52. a
80.6
72.2
75.0
36.1
72.2
86.1
52.8
25.0
12.2

86.6
30.6
69.5
58.3
66.7
72.2
80.5
66.7
75.0
80.5
SO.O

ss.s
47.2
94.4
63.9
19.5
53.6
77.8
97.2
77.8
S2.8

69.4
41.7
63.9
69.4
72.2
73.0
11.1
66.7
88.9
80.6

1J3.3
jy. 3
73.0
12.2
33.6
63.9
Tl.'l
96.1
63.9

80! 3
83.3
16.7
86.1
73.0
75.0

\ 3'. 3
7 3.0
47.2
61.1
73.0
77.8
30.6

38 ! 3
61.1
69.4
80.6
92.8

69.5
63.9
63.9
7 2.2
63.9
33.3
72,2
7 2.2
110.5
7 3.0
3 3.3
63.9
83.3
83.3
75.0
36.1

7 2.2
63.9
61.1
77.8
77.8
27.8
30.9
33.3
83.3
30.0
38.9
61.1
88.9
03.3
38.3
35.6

73.0
88.9
63.9
7 5.0
91.7
52.fi
44.4
72,2
88.9
69.4
0.

77.0
86.1
86.1
83.3
44.4

4 4.5
47.2
69.5

83.3
41.7
47.2

eo.s
72.2
33.6
72.2

«4 !3
65.3
7 6.4
h t!. B
63.9
2 9 .2
7 6.4
77.H
68.0
34.7
?2.»
67.4
42.4
7 5.0
72.9
68.8
72.2
74 . 3
63.9
75.0
78 .3
46.3
% 2 . ft

68.8
66. H
64.6
22.9
64,6
84,0
87.5
73.6
47.2
{FEBRUARY 1982)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
952.

1948
1949...
1950...
1951..,
1952...
1953...
1954.,,
1955...
1956. . .
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960. . .
1961...
1962...
1963. . .
1964...
1965...
1966. . .
1967...
1968.. .
1969. . .
197U...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974. . ,
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978. . .
1979...
1980...
1981...

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

75.0
41.7
83.3
83.3
100.0
33.3
58.3
100.0
91.7
16.7
75.0
75.0
33.3
91.7
58.3
91.7

41.7
53.3
83.3
100.0
100.0
33.3
53.3
100.0
91.7
16.7
03.3
75.0
8.3

8.3

91.7
58.3
58.3

91.7
58.3
58.3

91.7
41.7
58.3
83.3
83.3
100.0
0.
58.3
100.0
91.7
0.
100.0
91.7
25.0
91.7
58.3
75.0

75.0
100.0
66.7
75.0
100.0
50.0
33.3
83.3
100.0
100.0
16.7
50.0
83.3
100.0
100.0
50.0

75.0
100.0
66.7
83.3
100.0
50.0
33.3
66.7
100.0
100.0
16.7
66.7
83.3
100.0
100.0
58.3

75.0
100.0
66.7
03.3
100.0
50.0
50.0
66.7
100.0
66.7
16.7
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
33.3

75.0
100.0
66.7
83.3
100.0
50.0
33.3
100.0
100.0
66.7
0.
83.3
100.0
100.0
83.3
41.7

41.7
58.3
83.3
100.0
100.0
16.7
66.7
100.0
91.7
0.

03.3
91.7

83.3
25.0
58.3
75.0
91.7
100.0
0.
83.3
100.0
100.0
0.
100.0
83.3
41.7
91.7
75.0
91.7
75,0
100.0
66.7
83.3
91.7
50.0
83.3
83.3
100.0
66.7
0.
83.3
100.0
83.3
100.0
50.0

100 . 0
41.7
83.3
75.0

91.7
83.3
0.

100.0
83.3
100.0
0.

100-0
83.3
41.7
91.7
75.0
83.3
75.0
83.3
66.7
83.3
83.3
50.0
66.7
83.3
100.0
83.3
0.

83.3
100.0
83.3
100.0
33.3

83.3
25.0
100.0
03.3
75.0
83.3

100.0
25 !o
100.0
83.3
50.3
50.0

87.5
98.7
76.9
71.2
93.1
72.5
41.2
57.5
91.9
86.2
27.5
86.9
25.6
97.5
74.7

17.5
66.2
85.0
25.6
43.7
79.4
87.5
41.9
13.7
77.5
62.5
12.5
96.2
75.0
78.7
65.2

1965...
1966.. .
1967. . .
1968. . .
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

92.2
74.0
90.9
64.5
12.0
43.3
95.8
89.6
26.8

81.8
48.7
92.2
10.5
43.3
23.3
87.5
70.1
14.5

197 5! .".
1976.. .
1977-.. .
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981..,

95.4
100.0
46.0

93.8
83.1
27.4
30.6
35.5
52.8
42.5

2.5
7 3.* 7

8.1

94.8
74.1
66.0
96Ei.

1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952. . .
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956. . .
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963. . .
1964. . .
1965...
1966.. .
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974. . .
1975...
1976..,
1977...
1978...
1979. . .
1980...
1981...

81.2
71,2
66.2
21.9
56.2
80.6
80,6
47.5
88.7
81.2
73.1
80.6
34.4
85.6
47.5
43.7
78.5

93.1
47.5
47.5
49.4
21.2
5.6
85.6
83.7
33.7
74.4
59.4
53.1
51.9
72.5
8.7
91.2
75.6

95.6
29.4
75.0
40.0
38.1
41.2
86.9
33.1
23.1
78.7
91.2
53.7
35.0
81.9
1.2
85.0
52.6

64.3
14.3
61.0
21.1
13.3
82.7
71.5
76.4
19.6
91.0
86.2
53.1
43,5
50.0
05.5

70.8
63,6
76.0
94.7
54.0
16.4
84.0
71.5
21.7
9.7
69.2
31.5
49.2
90.7
80.0
26.4
81.1

66.9
3.9
74.0
83.6
74.7
2.7
41.7
21.5
14.7
27 ,3
61,0
41.5
37.0
90.7
16.4
9 2.5
30.2

3.8

58 .3
41*7
83.3
100.0
75.0
33.3
58.3
100.0
91.7.
25.0
83.3
75.0
41.7
75.0
58.3
91.7
75.0

52*.8
52.8
83.3
94.4
100.0
27.8
61.1
100.0
91.7
11.1
80.5
80.6
16.6
91.7
58.3
69.4
75.0
100.0
66.7
80.5
100.0
50.0
38.9
72.2
100.0
88.9
16.7
55.6
88.9
100.0
100.0
47.2

IQ

85.0

80.0

100.0
83.3
58.3
50.3

7 5.0
41*7
83.3
100.0
75.0
41.7
58.3
83.3
100.0
33.3
83.3
83.3
50.0
58.3
75,0
83.3
75.0
83.3
66.7
83.3
100.0
75.0
33.3
50.0
100.0
83.3
33.3
33,3
66.7
100.0
100.0
66.7
50.0

100.0
66.7
66.7
100.0
50.0
33.3
50.0
100.0
66.7
16.7
50.0
66.7
100.0
83.3
50.0
50.0

1.2

41.2
06.2
52.5
71.2
90.0
67.5
96.2
71.9
45.6
49.4
02.5
71.9
81.2
55.0
84.4
68.4
24.0

8.3

8.3

8.3

100.0
66.7
83.3
16.7
100.0
66.7
41.7
75.0
91.7
75.0

100.0
75.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
66.7
41.7
75.0
91.7
58.3

100.0
75.0
50.0
50.0
100.0
41.7
58.3
75.0
91.7
75.0

83*3
83.3
75.0
41.7
25.0
100.0
66.7
50.0
50.0
83.3
41.7
58.3
75.0
75.0
75.0

75.0
03.3
75.0
03.3
100.0
50.0
66,7
83.3
83.3
75,0
16.7
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
33,3

75.0
83.3
50.0
83.3
83.3
41.7
66.7
83.3
100.0
58.3
16.7
66.7
100.0
100.0
83.3
33.3

100.0
83.3
50.0
83.3
75.0
33.3
83.3
66.7
100.0
50.0
41.7
83.3
100.0
100.0
75.0
50.0

83.3
83.3
50.0
100.0
75.0
33.3
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
16.7
83.3
100.0
100.0
50.0
50.0

1.9

33.1
20.0
78.1
0.

71.2
88.7
20.0
42.5
86.2
41.9
76.2
40.0
1.2

51.9
35.3
0.

23.4
51.3
80.3

12.5
100.0
19.4
47.5
85.6
65.0
90.6
53.7
95.0
51.9
85.6
80.6
35.0
42,5
69.4
29.4
89.7
24.7
38.3
81.6
48.7

1.3

4.0

47.9
27.8
43.1
15.4

41.7
44.4
30.6
66.2

70.8
50.8
46.0
59.3
90.0
89.6
67.3

64.6
80.0
56.5
28.8
64.8
92.5
19.2

3.7

95.0
94.4
92.5
53.7
76.9
83.1
23.1
56.9

31.9
72.5
90.0
93.1
13.7
0.

51.9
70.6
12.5

5.0

23.7
4.4

88.7
42.5
76.2
81.2
78.1
75.0
41.0

84.4
16.9
40.0
36.2
76.9
76.3

00.0
52.5
25.0
46.9

79.9

81.2

6.5

3,9

57.2
86.7
61.3
96.5
71.5
33.8
88.2

6.2

40.0
56.2
15.3
37.3
53.7
76.4

43.1
23.4
90.3
92.6
88.7
40.4

0.

8.1

44.9
73.1
66.9
25.3
32.2
82.7
72.7
72.2
18.1
33.8
89.0
66.2
70.8
15.4
11.3

18.7
£17.5
83.7
35.0
38.1
91.2
97.5
51.2
59.4
60.0
85.0
41.2
97.5
6.2

7.5

95.0
78.2

98.7
86.5

80.5
51.9
85.7
61.8
73.3

58.4
43.5
90.3
63.2
40.0

51.9
37.7
97.4
71.1
14.7

27.5
62.5
68.7
52.5
55,0
92.5
96.2
72.5
65.0
95.0
85.0
42.5
97.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

98.6
62.5
26.5
28.8
62.0
90.8
33.0
49.1
18.2
39.6
79.2

95.1
59.0
19.1
10.6
98.5
93.8
43.5
62.1
32.7
47.2

91.0
68.1
25.0
6.1

100.0
95.4
54.8
69.8
57,4
77.4
59.6

53,7
68.7
80.0
67.5
48.7
97.5
95.0
67.5
50.0
100.0
84.4
42.5
97.5
3.1
95.0
85.9

63.7
71.2
86.2
58.7
16.2
97.5
88.7
55.6
36.9
100.0
67.5
36.9
95.6
3.7
89.1
84.6

58.4
22.1
93.4
76.3
12.0
6.9
97.2
84.7
19.1
6.1
95.4
89.2
54.8
82.8
90.7
90.6
59.6

72.7
11.7
92.1
82.7
6.7
25.0
77.8
67.6
17.6
10.6
93.8
93.0
29.0
86.2
88.9
94.3
44.2

2.5

1.2

3.7

78.2
81.8

79.5
68.8

77.6
65.6

61.0

59.1
22.1
65.8
97.3
21.3
46.5
43.1
54.9
16.4

63.6
20.1
71.1
81.3
20.0
72-2
44.4
47.9
26.9
10.8
90.8
62.9
22.6
68.4
68.5
94.3

60.4
47.4
52.6
71.3
14.7
95.0
50.7
42.0
35.8
23.1
87.7
57.3
19.4
39.1
69.8
90.6

67.5
6.5

9.7

86.2
85.3
21.3
27.8
56.9
43.7
30.9

68.4
93.3
25.3
31.9
31.9
54.9
23.9

55 .0
85.0
65.0
62.5
74.4
31.2
97.5
81.2
31.9
23.7
100.0
56.9
57.5
73.7

4.6

4.6

3.1

89.2
64.6
17.7
87.7
75.0
86.8
42.3

80.8
45.4
26.6
70.2
63.0
84.9
46.2

66.2
56.5
27.4
67.5
68.5
96.2
32.7

32. 5
96.2
78 .7
61.2
80.0
53.7
100.0
63.7
33.7
31.2
100.0
50.6
68.7
71.2

is. r

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.

9.6

Annual

91.7
36.1
66.6
77.8
88.9
94.4
0.

80.5
94.4
97.2
0.

100.0
86.1
36.1
91.7
69.4
83.3
75.0
94.4
66.7
83.3
91.7
50.0
61.1
08.9
100.0
72.2
0.

83.3
100.0
88.9
94.4
41,7

94.4
25.0
100.0
83.3
63.9
63.9

72.2
36.1

100.0
72.2
69.4
38.9
100.0
58.4
47.2
75.0
91.7
69.4

83.3
94.4
75.0
38.9
47.2
94.4
86.1
36.1
72.2
80.5
44.5
63.9
69.4
83.3
75.0

37.'5
75.7
84.7
80.6
74.3
20.8
84.0
38.2
73.6
30.6
90.3
67.4
41.0
82.0
75.7
74.3

83.3
83,3
58.3
83.3
86.1
41.7
72.2
77.8
94.4
61,1
25.0
83,3
100.0
100.0
86.1
38.9

88.9
72.2
66.7
100.0
66.7
33.3
50.0
100.0
83.3
33.3
33.3
72.2
100.0
94.4
55.6
50.0

80.6
87.5
64.6
86.8
86.1
43.7
55.6
84.7
94.4
63.9
18.8
73.6
97.2
95.8
84.0
44.4

8.3

6.2

90.0
81.2
91.9
86.9
46.9
26.2
89.4
55.6
90.0
87.5
98.7
44.9
59.6
70.1
88.3
7.9

77.3
68.0
48.6

57.1
59.7
71.1
72.7
4.0

30.0
55.7
65.4

98.6
95.0
77.5
13.4
9.2
26.2
91.9
46.8
69.0
95.4
15.1
67.3

10 .0
96.2
84 .4
66.2
79.4
83.7
98.7
73.7
41.2
30.0
98.7
32.5
90.0
70.0
93.7
71.2
76.6

20 .0
92.5
96.9
62.5
65.0
83.7
98.7
60.6
33.1
30.0
96.2
26.2
97.5
62.5
95.0
84.4
76.6

67.5
58.4
46.1
52.0
25.3
97.2
59.7
36.2
53.7
38.5
80.0
56.5
16.1
47.3
37,7
88.7

70.1
66.2
50.0
56.0
31.5
98.6
65.3
34.8
35.8
70.8
80.0
48.4
23.7
67.3
39.6
86.8

2.8

90.1
7.5

70,8
64,6
50.8
66.9

54.*1
73.3
68.5
52.9
65.2
84.4
69.2
57.3
50.8
80.8
76.4
24.8
09.6
49.4
73.3
72.8
79.4
45.7
81.4
32.0
22.9
49.8
84.9
78.7
20.3
75.8
91.8
78.7
39.0
29,6
71,9
43.6
64.8

34.8

...

76.0
54.5

16.0
89.2
67.9
77.7
51.0
47.3
75.2
49.1
54.8
22.5
86.2
44.2
42.7
54.6
61.2
60.4
69.0

82.3
59.0
39.8
64.6
74.8
82.9
54.6
38.7
26.7
84.0
60,0
65.4
63,1
63,7
52.7
52.2

63* .'6
63.0
55.6
53.6
50.7
80.9
60.4
44.1
41.3
82.5
57.5
46.8
68.0
44.5
65.6
62.1

45.9
30.3
67.1
86.2
43.3
22.3
51.2
45.4
17.3
25.5
67.0
41.3
44.1
80.2
62.1
69.5
59.5

61.9
16.2
72.1
51.1
33.3
72.0
46.5
46.9
65.4
4.5
36.9
59.8
31.7
54.8
70.4
85.9
19.9

64.7
57.8
37.1
77.6
48.2
73.1
38,9
67.1
36.6
48,7
53.9
52.7
41.7
25.9
45.7
38.1
63.8

63.0
37.5
64.4
61.7
36.9
54.3
55.4
59.5
34.9
38 * 6
62.4
58.1
39.1
47.6
62.5
59.2
52.0

89,6
26.3

51.9
36.5
45.8
15.6
81.2
68.5
25.6
65.2
78.9
49.6
54.4
64.8
3.7

(3

84.6
84.6

61.2
83.7
67 .5
45.6
• 64.4
30.0
96.2
68.7
43.7
25.0
100.0
55.6
46.2'
76.2

65.6
31.9

0.

8.6
3.7

43.4
58.7

11.2
97.5
80.0
52.5
81.2
65.6
98.7
72.5
27.5
26.2
100.0
33.7
03.7
67.5
67.5
69.2
75.3

61.2
70.6
71.9
70.0
42.5
17.5
96.2
70.0
40.7
20.0
98.7
61.9
38.7
81.2

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

61.9
95.0
92.5
41.9
13.7
75.6
60.6

8.1

77.6
17.8
34.7
77.8
23.6
76.4
41.9

III Q

<§

7.5

9.4

II Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

83.3

DIFFUSION INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS—52-82 INDUSTRIES
(PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS)

27.5
90.0
96.2
42.5
59.4
83.7
91.2
56.2
51.2
47.5
95.0
30.0
97.5
17.5
95.0
83.1




Dec.

100.0

968. DIFFUSION INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS--52-82 INDUSTRIES
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
1948...
1949.. .
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962. . .
1963...
1964. . .

Nov.

DIFFUSION INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATOR COMPONENTS
(PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

49.6
88.3
70.4
56.4
72.9
38.3
97.9
71.2
36.4
26.6
100.0
54.4
57.5
73.7

24.* 6
80.0
82.9
43.3
50.8
89.1
95.0
60.0
58.5
67.5
88.3
37,9
97.5
10.4
96.2
82.6

62.* 7
70.6
78.7
56.2

3.1

7.9

89.6
85.0

78.4
72.1

63.6
44.4
91.1
65.4
42.7

66.2
13.4
90.6
81.4
13.3
19.9
77.3
65.3
22.5

61.2
17.3
68.4
90.6
22.2
50.2
39.8
52.6
22.4

92.8
82.5
33.8
85.6
84.9
90.6
48.7

79.3
54.9
25.5
68.7
66.7
91.8
29.5

5.6

94.9
63,2
.23.5
15.2
86.8
93.3
43.8
60.3
36.1
54.7
68.7

27.5
97.1
84.6
57.3
35.6
99.6
71.3
39.4
91.4

7.1

6.2

13.7
95.4
87.1
60.4
75.2
77.7
98.7
68.9
33.9
28.7
98.3
30.8
90.4
66.7
05,4
74.9
76.2

67.'7*
77.0
69.6
61.9
48.6
95.7
79.9
46.9
37.4
91.3
61.2
56.3
82.3
26.7
84.8
79.0

66.0
57.3
49,6
59.8
23.8
97.2
58.6
37.7
41,8
44.1
82.6
54.1
19.7
51.2
49.0
88.7

64.3
33.1
74.9
74.3
25.5
43.2
67.6
54.7
27.6
18.1
85.4
71.2
30.7
66.5
59.2
81.4

(FEBRUARY 1982)

103

E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States

Duration in months
Business cycle reference dates

Trough

Cycle

Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)

Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Peak from
previous
peak

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak

18

30
22
46
18
34

March 1882
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895

65
38
13
10
17

June 1897
December 1900
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912

June 1899
September 1902
May 1907
January 1910....
January 1913

December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
July 1924
November 1927

December 1854
December 1858
June 1851
December 1867
December 1870

June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873

March 1879
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894

36

40
14
50
52

36
22
27
20
18

99
74
35
37
37

101
60
40
30
35

18
18
23
13
24

24
21
33
19
12

36
42
44
46
43

42
39
56
32
36

August 1918 ....
January 1920....
May 1923
October 1926 ...
August 1929 ....

23

M

35
51
28
36
40

£L

March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October ] 949
Mayl9&4

May 1937
February 1945 ..
November 1948.
July 1953
August 1957 ....

43
13

50
80
37

11
10

i5

April 1953
February 1961
November 1970
March 1975
July 1980

April 1960
Decemberl969 .
November 1973 .
January 1980....
July 1981

18
8

21

1
18
14
13

1

19451981 (5 cycles)

1
4

30 cycles.
25 cycles.

3

5

6

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

104



45
16
49

'33
27
35
3
45

52
48
53
60

4

47
46
46
49

32

Hi
47
74
18

52
64

2

51

49
53
3
55
46
47
45
e 44
5

Korean war, and Vietnam war), the postwar contractions, acid the full cycles

1

15 cycles.
13 cycles.

47
34

18
22
18
10

27
24
26
6
34

93

ii

li
HZ

19
22
20
10

17
40
41
34

64
63
88
48

16
6

II

Average, peacetime cycles:
18541981 (24cycles) ,..
1854-1919(14cycles) ...
19191945 (5 cycles)

39

R

24
10£
36
58
12

10

Average, all cycles:
1854-1981 (29 cycles).
1854-1919 (16 cycles) .
19191945(6 cycles)..,
19451981 (7 cycles)...

NOTE Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and
that include the wartime expansions.

10
22
27
21

48
30

8 cycles.
6 cycles.

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

Year

and
quarter

Irnpl icit price
deflator, gross
nonfarm business
product1
(Index: 1977=100)

Unit labor cost,
all persons, nonfarm
business sector1
(Index: 1977=100)

1980
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...

122.9
126.3
128.8
131.9

127.4
131.8
133.6
136.8

135.3
137.5
rl41.2
pl44.3

139.1
141.9
rl45.8
P151.0

II I

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

(Jan > (July)
P T

rir i n I I I I I I I

in in

TIT TTT Ratio scale
160
150
140
130
120
110
100

Components of BCD series 2 6 -

i m i i11
Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm
business product Q
(index: 1977-100)

160

1981

150

I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...
1982

140
130
Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm
business sector, Q
*r
(index: 1977 = 100)

120
110
100

I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...

90
80
-1
Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)—
Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars2

Year

and

Manufacturing

month
(Ratio)

Merchant
wholesalers
(Ratio)

Retail trade

70

Arithmetic
scale
-n

2.2

(Ratio)
2.1

1981
Jan..
Feb..
Mar. .
Apr..
May..
June.

1.97
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.98
1.93

1.33
1.32
1.35
1.36
1.38
1.41

1.38
1.36
1.36
1.39
1.40
1.41

July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov. .
Dec.

1.97
1.99
2.01
2.09
r2.12
p2.11

1.38
1.43
1.42
1.45
rl.44
pi.47

1.45
1.42
1.42
1.49
1.48
pi.47

2.0

1.9
1.8
1.6

1.5

1.4

1982
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)
1.3
1.6

1.5

July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..
1969 1970 1971 1972
NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
x
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




1.4

1.3

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average; workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
5. Average; weekly initial claims,
State
unemployment insurance1 (thousands)
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
32. Vendor performance, companies receiving
slower deliveries (percent)
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
29. New building permits, private housing
units (index: 1967=100)
36. Change in inventories2 on hand and on order in
1972 do!., smoothed (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .
92. Change in sensitive
crude materials
prices;, smoothed2 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed2
(perceint)
106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars
(billion dollars)
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thousands)
51. Personal income less transfers in 1972
dollars (annual rate, billion dollars).
47. Industrial production, total
(index: 1967=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972
dollars (million dollars)
920. Composite index
of 4 roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total,
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1967=100)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
(million dollars)
Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income (percent)
Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3
(index:: 1967=100)

72.
95.

930.

Oct.
1981

Nov.
1981

Net contribution to index

Dec.
1981

Oct.
to
Nov.
1981

Jan.
1982

Nov.
to
Dec.
1981

Dec.
to
Jan.
1982

39.5

39.3

r39.0

*NA

-0.17

-0.28

NA

r517

r539

r551

p563

-0.12

-0.07

-0.08

r31.67

r30.94

r31.06

P29.15

-0.12

0.02

-0.44

38

32

30

32

-0.21

-0.08

0.09

rllO.O

elO8.2

NA

NA

-0.24

rl2.19

rl4.16

58.3

58.4

63.7

r5.37

r3.49

p-1.00

r-0.02

r-0.26

r-0.35

119.80

122.92

r0.91

NA

NA

P13.06

0.34

-0.01

-0.24

67.2

0.01

0.28

0.21

-0.12

-0.31

-0.50

-0.10

-0.04

-0.08

123.79

117.28

0.16

0.05

-0.44

e0.88

e0.85

e0.82

-0.10

-0.10

-0.13

r800.4

r805.5

r808.0

P813.4

0.25

0.13

0.34

rl28.6

rl28.2

rl27.8

P127.0

-0.31

-0.31

-0.63

91,832

r91,522

r91,096

p90,859

-0.27

-0.37

-0.27

r l , 074.1

rl,075.5

rl,068.8

pi,066.6

0.06

-0.31

-0.13

rl49.1

146.4

rl43.4

P139.1

-0.50

-0.57

-1.08

151,783

rl51,684

pl50,990

NA

-0.01

-0.10

NA

139.9

rl38.7

136.6

pl34.4

-0.86

-1.51

-1.61

rl3.6

rl3.1

12.8

13.5

0.23

0.14

-0.49

r269.67

r270.35

P269.36

NA

0.12

-0.17

r217.9

221.2

r223.8

P230.3

0.47

0.37

1.35

18.45

16.84

15.75

15.75

-3.13

-2.12

0.00

rl8y,827

rl90,937

rl93,115

pl96,770

0.13

0.25

0.62

rl3.20

rl3.12

P13.12

NA

-0.28

0.00

NA

rl89.8

rl84.8

rl81.7

pj.84.1

-2.63

-1.68

X.3 2

NA

NA

NA

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t
is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the March 1979 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 106107) for weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
l

This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences] to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment
factor for the leading index is 0.099; for the coincident index, -0.164; for the lagging index, -0.170.
2
This
9

*The average workweek has been omitted from the calculation of the January value for the index of leading indicators. See
"New Feature;; and Changes for This Issue," page iv (item 3).

106



G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

HOW TO READ RECESSION COMPARISON CHARTS

These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of
the current business recession. To set the current movements in
historical perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical
periods also are shown. The selected periods are superimposed to
compare the current business recession with corresponding historical
patterns and to facilitate critical assessment of the amplitude, duration,
and severity of the indicators' current movements.

The three-part code indicates the timing
classification of the series at peaks, at troughs,
and at all turns: L = leading; C= roughly
coincident; L.g = lagging; and U = unclassified.

This number indicates the latest month (or
quarter) of data plotted. (1 ^January)

1. In most cases, comparisons are based on reference peak levels
and reference peak dates.

Deviations
from
reference
peaks

2. The vertical line represents reference peak dates. The current
and historical periods are alined so that their reference peaks fall on
this line.

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

Percent

+5
• 1075

3. The horizontal line represents the level of data at reference
peaks. The current and historical periods are alined so that their
reference peaks fall on this line.

4. In most cases, deviations (percent or actual differences) from
the reference peak levels are computed and plotted. For series
measured in percent units (e.g., the unemployment rate), those units
(actual data) are plotted rather than deviations. The deviations (if
plotted) and actual data for the current period are shown in the tables
accompanying the charts.

• 1050

• 1025
5. f o r series that move counter to movements in general business
activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used; i.e.,
declines in data are plotted as upward movements, and increases in
data are plotted as downward movements.

• 1000
6. Several curves are shown in each chart. The heavy solid line
( ^ B ) describes the current period. The dotted line ( • • • ) represents
the median pattern of the seven post-World War II cycles. The remaining
lines represent selected business cycles; each line is labeled according
to the year of the reference peak.

7. These charts use the business cycle (reference) peak and
trough dates designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research,

• 975

.... I
0

Peaks: Nov. 1948 (IVQ 1948), July 1953 (IIQ 1953), Aug. 1957
(IIIQ 1957), Apr. 1960 (IIQ 1960), Dec. 1969 (IVQ 1969), Nov. 1973
(IVQ 1973), Jan. 1980 (IQ 1980), July 1 9 8 1 . *

I..... I..... I..
+6
+12

Months from reference peaks

Troughs: Oct. 1949 (IVQ 1949), May 1954 (IIQ 1954), Apr. 1958
(IIQ 1958), Feb. 1961 (IQ 1961), Nov. 1970 (IVQ 1970), Mar. 1975 (IQ
1975), July 1980 (IIIQ 1980).

This scale measures time in months before ( —)
and after ( + ) reference peak dates.

This scale shows deviations (percent or actual
differences) from reference peak levels.

This scale shows actual series units and applies
only to the current business cycle (heavy solid
line).

*The NBER has not officially designated the latest reference peak quarter. However, for purposes of these charts, it is assumed that the third quarter of 1981 is the reference peak for quarterly series.




107

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued

T

T

T

32. Vendor performance, percent of
companies receiving slower deliveries

Deviations
from

Actual
data
for

reference
peaks

current
cycle

Actual

+ 30

#+?5

+ 20
• +60

+ 10

0

» + 45

• +30

-20

"30

#+15

SEKIKS
-5

4

-4
-3
-2
-1

6
10
6
2

7/81

48
43
IB
32

8/81
9/81
10/01
11/81

6

-16
= 14

10
32

12/81
1/82

-6
-5

SERIES 36
ANN, RATE
BIL. DOL.
-7.12 1/81
-9.33 2/31

-4
-3
-2
-1

-6.21
-1.26
2.07
5.79

5

•

-30

+30

MONTHS D E V I FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
AND
FROM ACTUAL
PEAK
7/81
DATA YI3AR

• o

.i5

3/ttl
4/81
V81
6/81

52
56
52
48
46

-50

#

32

2
-3
-8
-14

0 P

10.54

7/81

10.59
8.19
5.37
3.49

U/81
9/ai
10/81
11/81

-1.00

12/01

-5

-0.7

9125B

-4
-3
-2
-1

-0.6
-0,5
-0.3

91347
914 50
91564
91615

0
1
2
3
4

+2
• 93,000

• 92,000

-0.3

0. P 91880
0.0
0.2
-0.1
-0.4

91901
92033
91032
91522

73. Industrial production, durable
manufactures
cxci

2/81
3/81
4/81
V81
6/01
7/81

-2

#90,000

• 89,000

-4
-6

0

+6

+12

+18 +24

Deviations

Actual
data

from
reference

eurrent

peaks

cycle

• 140

— 8

130

-5

-1.9

140.8

-4
-3
-2
-1

-1.0
-0.8
-0.1
-0.3

142.1
142.5
143.5
14 3.2

V81
4/81
=3/31
6/81

143.6

7/ai

14 3.4
140.9
137.8
134.5

8/81
9/81
10/tt 1
11/81

-0.1
-1.9
-4.0
-6.3
5
-0.Q
6 -12.3

131.0
126.0

for

+4

- 0 . 9 91096
5
12/01
6
- 1 . 1 90859
1/82
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
FROM ACTUAL
REF.
AND
7/81
DATA YCAR
PEAK

2/81

12/81
1/02

-12

-16

-20
HIM

NOTE: See "How to Read Charts" on page 107.
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.




+10

-i

Months from reference peaks

108

-

3/31
9/81
10/81
11/81

SERIES
73
1367=100
• 91,000

+20

3/81
4/81
5/01
6/B1

SERIES 41
THOUSANDS

Percent

-

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MO:ITH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
PEAK
DATA yiiAR
7/81

-70

41. Employees on nonagricultural
payrolls '

[A etui
do to

PKRCKNT
REPORTING
50
2/U1

1
2
3
4

0

-40

-60

T
T
•r
36. Net change in inventories
on
hand
and on order, smoothed1

T

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CUKRKNT MONTH
AND
ACTUAL
FROM
KEF.
YliAH
7/31
DATA
PEAK

Illlt I

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference peaks

+24

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
Deviations
from
reference
peaks

5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted)

m

Actual
data
for
current

MONTHS D E V I FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
PEAK
DATA YEAR
7/81

cycle

"I1
19.

'I'

T

Deviations
from
reference
peaks

Index of stock prices

ull

SERIES
5
THOUSANDS
-5

3.8

410

2/81

-4

4.6
0.
1.5
2.5

413
395
401
405

3/81
4/81
5/81
6/81

Actual
data

for
current
cycle

Percent

-20
• 350

1980

-2
-1

I

1981

n.-

—

VLF Yj

• 400

• 450

+ 20

f

• 500

. /

j
+ 40

i

•

Median

395

7/81

6.6
22.3
30.9
36.5

421
403
517
539

8/81
9/81
10/31
11/81

5
6

39.5
42.5

551
563

12/81
1/82

1

-4
-3
-2
-1

3.1
4.1
2.0
2.4

133.19
134.43
131.73
132.28

• 650

• 700

+ 80
• 750

I
+ 100
• 800

\1

V

+10

S E R I E S 19
1941-43-10

+ 60

A I

1973 \
\

+ 20

• 850

-10

3/31
4/81
5/81
6/81

-20

-30

0

0 . P 129.13

7/81

1
2
3
4

0.4

-8.4
-7.2
-4.8

129.63
118.27
119.80
122.92

8/81
9/81
10/81
11/81

5
6
7

-4.1
-9.2
-11.0

123.79
117.28
114.94

12/81
1/82
2/82

MONTHS D E V I FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
PEAK
7/81
DATA YEAR

- 1 + 120

• 100

• 80
-40

29. New building permits, private
housing units

Percent

SERIES
01
B I L . DOL.

8. New orders for consumer goods and

-1+75

-5

-1.1

34.78

2/81

Percent

-4
-3
-2
-1

0.6
0.4
1.3
1.3

35.37
35.32
35.61
35.63

3/81
4/81
5/81
6/01

- r +15

0

0. P

35.17

7/Ul

materials, 1972 dollars, smoothed'

• 120

+ 50
H05

• 40

•

\

—

+10

1
2
3
4

-

+5

5

^

Median^*

;

n

u

• 35

-5

1980

\

\ A
1

-

-15

-

-20

• 30

0

+6

+12

8/81
9/81
10/81
11/81

-13.6

30.38

12/81

+25

+18

• 90

• 75

27.7

94.1

2/81

26.3
30.0
28.0
5.6

93.1
95.8
94.3
77.8

3/81
4/81
5/81
6/81

73.7

7/81

• 60

-25
• 45

y 1973
-1-25

-6

34.51
33.20
32.16
31.22

SERIES 29
1967=100

-10

3I

-1.9
-5.6
-8.6
-11.2

MONTHS D E V I FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
PEAK
7/81
DATA YEAR

)[ 1981

\\*T

• 140

• 550

• 600
_

+ 30

MONTHS D E V I FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
PEAK
DATA YEAR
7/81

J *

*t*\ 1
f
I
/
1\ id
i

0. P

1
2
3
4

0

n
u

Percent

+24

Months from reference peaks

1 -5.2
2 -6.8
3 -20.9
4 -20.8

69.9 8/81
68.7 9/81
50.3 10/81
58.4 11/81

5 -13.6
6 -8.8

63.7 12/81
67.2 1/82

-50

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from reference peaks

NOTE: See "How to Read Charts" on page 107.
*This series is an MCD moving average placed on the center month of the span.
2
Numeral indicates latest month used in computing the series.




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(SOI! WJIHl»Il!tti tilll!!i 111 "Til(t!S and StlUICHS Sit
NtflKR," liilllflWIHl) HilS irul?)3()

Charts

2
604
A:il;;:ijit!tm:if;:i:iil intent m\u
Ht^iini'sscxprulitijfcs t:i!W|j!iit!t ivvA (Hjuif)itu:nt
ik<-i:if'V)i^iii'iultt-in1,, :;:i'vV [il.v.w ,<R:I r;uipm! ! ri:, 1)1

. :ii.)t».).i;:l !iiiii|ti;x! trad:), Vi\
;, manufoclu 'iiiij, 1)1
\, ;;-;t.':! Ir !•:'•, ;:i
:, mt nudir;: i ::ii| ( ;:K! Wad;;, U!
iit,iiit:tiii:li::!iit; anil ti\i<!;!, i l l . ,

Iniiltiiiu; p r : n! , ;uw p u'lto !tt:us:i:wt
IfosiiTY, ffMiii-iiKint, imhhttml piudoatto:i

•S;i::i:i;s": ttii:. :i;r*

tfii-iiiHjvi liivi'iit: ti(!" -Su1 Invcnloriis.

8/81
12/81

67
76
65
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76

3/81
3/01
1/02
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
1/82

SB
616

22
56

65
92

4/81
12/81

94

18
64
34
34
31
4<-3

48
43
:

4. i

49
48
48
48
50
64

15,35
32

73
72

12/80
12/80

43
43

33
33

72
72

1/82
1/82

45
45

14
12
13

13 ,25
24
24
38
33
12 ,23
23

67
67
67
76
72
65
65

7/81
7/81
3/81
3/81
12/81
12/81
12/81

35
24
34
34
44
32
32

295

46

82

5/81

37

20
20
20

64
64
64

8/81
8/81
3/81

25
25
25

29
76
61

Canada-Ssw huwnatimu comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacluririfj (IWAl

i

Capita! ti

61
92

24
38
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38

970 **

iiuiiiiN'SS inc.) |i;tii)iions

16
56

Historic!1
Suries
inscription:
data
ssuts dale)
(*)

61
970
53
974
975
971
976
978
977
972
973

liiiilk tt)t"Vi ',C i'ii'jllt.iSSt-Ji, il'()l)f! ill!t;.t;i:itil!lt]
fiiitif li!i:ii'. it: !n)!;nKsstl!, mil {-.\WM\I\
1^,'fik ;jii''i S:1:1 l**:*'ri'*jt r lies.

iY!.)ii:[)iji I M I K b;)trowi:w; from I vMnX Hr;xvi<
SlCtllS Sit' :lilt'l'I'St MICH.

Current issuf!
{|ia(|0 numtwrs)

Surins
nutnbw

nf]

Niwty ii|)|in)vi!<l
Nuwly ii[j[iiuvi?(l, PI
Cti|iittil itwiis'itiBU- Si!f jwostnumi, capital.
Htijittal irw-isiUtwHt cofrmtifiiijiiis, Cl
Ciish flow, (HtrpOfHtB, c jusuint tiollars
Ciish flow, (Jiirpiinstu, cji'rorH floltnrs
Civilian Ititotti lui~cr--S(!J also 1 ni|ili)yinimt.
t (fi[)ltiynn;rtl
,,
t ntploymnttt ;is porcitit ot psiputaiKH)
lutal
UtioiM|il(iyutt
,.
('iHlij)tiSltt! ItitJOX
Cufttpusitt! intttK, ra't; of ditint|(j
t)i(lusit)i) iruJnx
,
Ratio to landing indisiiturs, cornposito indtjx
Comniereiiil ami iitdustri.il builtliiujs, contracts tiwardud .
(Jomniercial aiut ii duslrial kmiiB ontslandinc)
,
CytftmerKiul and industriiil loimsmitstandint), nut champ;
&)tt»[)ensati(in
'.' Conipunsauoii, jvBixfie hourly, atl Rmiiloyoos,
nonfut'ii) husitioss suitor
CtJiTipeiiSi'lifin, .jvorufio hourly, (ill omployiws,
nonlann bnKintiss s «;t«r, ptsrcfint ahanfi^s
Cftmpuiisntiut) iif fifi:j- luytsos
Comptsnsi.itimi uf otti^Ioytsos, pisrcunt of national
i
no
Kotj)p(!iis;ilion, n;al -ivuraf)!! hourly, oil (Hiiplnyeiis,
nontarm hitsini'ss s.!t;u*r
CiiiiiponStition, rial i\v.n\i\u hourly, till omptoyeos,
nonfarm tiusiness siscior, \mrv,G(\\ chunyiss
.,
r ['oriiings, avnrtiiio hourly, product ion workurs,
•'• private tujnturtn f!co;ioniy
, ,..,
t arnimis, wmi\\$ hctirly, product ion wot k m ,
pnviitfj i-on(arm ecojioniy, tmrefiiit c:haii(j«s
(';amin()s,r()al nvyrari? hourly, production
workisrs', privatR ntififfirni neorumiy
I'lifiiinfjs, n;;il imtai^ liourly, product ion
w«fkt!rs/)ifivia(! norifami economy, ptirennt changes
Watfii aiifl bvtwUl df visions, first year
W;if]u and bimdit dteisions, lifo of eontraci
Wjgos and sahirios, miniiif), manufacturitif), und

97
11
965

24
24
37

66
66
75

10/81
10/81
10/81

33
33
33

914
35
34

29

60
70
70

11/81
4/81
4/81

15
37
37

442
90
441
37

51
18
51
18,51

89
62
89
62,89

2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81

20
20
20
20

920
920c
951
940
9
72
112

10
39
36
11
23
15,35
32

60

11/81
11/81
2/82
11/81
3/81
12/80
12/80

15

74"
60
66
73
72

15*
15
32
43
43

345

49

87

1/82

56

34§c
280

50
45

87
82

1/82
5/81

56
56

64

30,47

70,83

4/81

56

346

49

88

1/82

56

346c

50

88

1/82

56

340

49

87

11/81

15

340c

50

87

11/81

15

341

49

87

11/81

15

341 e
348
349

50
50
50

87
88
88

11/81
8/81
8/81

15
62
62

53

19

63

6/81

22

Hi !.:•» i

Soriis tillfis
cnmplme tittra in "Titles and Stsurres nl
Kufifts," Itillowint] tin is indiss)

Composite indfixfjs
Coincident intfatoi:;
Tour Kimeidws
f:oiir coincides, niti; sif clisrigt!
Ratio to lai)i|in(| icdicainr index
l,ai|E|in(] indicMors
Six hifiijers
Six latjtjftrs, rate 0' elwiwin
leading indicators
Capital invest men; commitments
Invmuory invosirrtint and purchastnti
Martjinal (jinploynmnt adjustniRiits
Money and financial Unm
Protitability
,
Twolvfi lKid(;rs

i'n

.:

.....,,,..

o...

Twulvo Irsidfirs, mm of cbonye
Construction
Buildinij [«Hoiits, nt-w [jtivatnj hdusitif)
Contracts awarded, csimtiKjrcial and industrial hldfp. .
Expenditums, plus nachtirery and Rijuipmtjnt salts . . .
Gross privatti doniisstic fixed irwostmunt
Nun 1 (isiiiiiiui.il, a s p i r a n t of GNP
NonresidKiitic'il structures, constant dollats . . .
Nonrisidiintiai, tt tal, constant dollars
Residential as percmit of GNP
Residential, total constant dollars
,,
Housing starts
,
Consume tinistifrd pt:ds- Sm) Wholusaln prices.
Consutiifif floods and tiKitwials, new orders
Consumer p o d s , mdiwifiiit nroductiun
Consumer installmfint :J(ibt
Debt outstanding
Net change
,.„
Ratio to pfifsonal nn'otite
,
Consumer installment bans, delinquency rat«
Consumer \)imm -Sue ilso International emnptirisons,
AH itums, index
,
All items, pfsreunt c lanyes
Food, index
Food, percent chart jus
Consurrw sentiment, tidiix . . . „
Consumption expend) to res-See Personal consumption
expenditures.
Contracts and orders, islimt and equipment, constant duf.
Contracts and ordeis, pkint and enuipment, eurrent dol.,
Corporatu bond yields
,
Corporate profits-Sun Profits.
Costs-See labor casts and Price indexes.
Bank 10tins to b u s i n g s , net ehanp
Borrowing, total pr.vato
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . . . . . .
Consumer installment debt
Debt tjuistandini)
Wet chtinge
Ratio to personal tntsome
,
Consumer installmcint loans, delinquency rate
Mortgagu debt, net change
„
Crude materials--See Wholesale prices.

Debt-See Credit.
Defense
Military prime con ratt awards
National defense p jrdiases
New orders, dofense products
Obligations incurred
Deficit-See Gowunrront.
Deflators-&e Price ndsses.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans. „
Deliveries, vendor performance
,
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditi. res, new plant and equipment . . .
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
,
Coincident indicat irs
Employees, manufacturing and tradft
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls . . . . .
Industrial material1; prices
Industrial material; prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial product on, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manuI acturing and trade
Lagging indicators
,
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components . .
New orders, manufacturing
Prices, SOD common stocks
,
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices, selling, retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Profits, mantifacti ling
Profits, not, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Workweek, rnfg. production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components . .
Disposable personal income-See Income.




tl.lt I
M «],)*.(

Si1"!1.
V , ti.ttit't *
(*)

920

60

11/81

15

940

60 "

11/81

is"

930
930c

60

11/81
11/81

15

914
915
913
917
916
910
910c

60
60
60
00
SO

11/81
11/81
11/81
11/81
11/81
11/81
11/81

15
15
15
15
15
15

29
9

67
66
67

7/81
3/81
9/81

35
32
?M

248
87
86
249
89
28

S3
67
67
S3
67
67

4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
3/81

51
51
51
51
51
35

64
65

9/81
7/81

24

73
72
73

n

3/81
4/81
6/81
2/82

43
43
43
4&

84,9b
84,9b
84
84
65

3/81
3/81
3/81
3/81
1/82

59
59
59
59
31

8
75
113
95
320
320c
322
322c
58

so

It
3fi
32
IB, 35
33
{

J ,59

20
10
116

12,23
23
34

66
66
73

9/81
9/81
2/82

3?
32
46

112
110
72

32
32
15,35

It
11
73

12/80
1/82
12/80

43
44
43

66
113
95
39
33

35
32
16,35
33
32

73
It
73
72
:
! 71

3/81
4/81
6/81
2/82
7/81

43
43
43
43
4:3

125
564
548
517

S3

90
91
90
90

12/81
5/81
10/81
3/81

53
26

39
32

33
12,21

72
64

2/82
2/82

45
28

970
965
951
974
963
967

38
37
36
38
36
37

76
75
74
76
74
7S

3/81
10/81
2/82
1/82
9/81
1/82

34
33
15
48
15
36

966

37

12/ 80

?A'

1/82
1/82
2/82
2/82
9/81

18"
48
15
15

1/82
2/82
1/82
1/82
1/82
8/81
1/82
1/82
9/81

in"

7Q
/9

75
78
74
76
74
74
75

962
975
952
950
964

77
If

976
978
977
960
972
973
961

NOTE: CI, conposite index; DI, diffusion index; GPOI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).

110

:

!

76
75
76
76
76
1%
76
76
74
77

ZB
36
48
49
48
4B"
48
15

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Earnings—See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments, rate of change
Employees in mining, mfg., and construction
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonag. payrolls, Dl
Employment, ratio to population
Employment, total civilian
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Di
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, mfg. production workers
Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 ye3rs and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployed, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment, total civilian
Workweek, mfg. production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components
Workweek, mfg. production workers, Dl
Equipment-See Investment, capital.
Exports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.

Federal funds rate
Federal Government-See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, and money, Cl
Fixed investment-See Investment, capital.
Fixed weighted price index, NIPA
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes, NIPA
Food-See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade-See also Internaticnal transactions.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dot., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, exc. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports of automobiles and pans
Imports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Imports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Imports of goods and services, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Net exports, goods and services, constant dol., NIPA . .
Net exports, goods and services, current dol., NIPA . . .
Net exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA
France-See International comparisons.
Free reserves

Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget, NIPA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Serie:
Historical
data
lescriptions
{issue date]

(*)

2
441

16
51

8/81
2/81

48

17

1/82

48c
40
974
41
963
90
442
46
60
5
962
3
913
21

91
44
45
43
37
1

39
17
38
14,17
36
18
51
17
17
12,16
36
16
11
16
51
51
51
51
17
16
51
51
51
51
15,18
18
18
18
18,51
12,16

961

36*

453
452
451
448
42
4

446
445
447
444

62
76
62
74
62
89
61
61
61
74
61
60
61

89
89
89
89
62
61

89
89
89
89
62
62
62
62
62,89
61
77
74

15

1/82
8/81
1/82
8/81
9/81
2/81
2/81
11/80
3/81
2/82
1/82
8/81
11/81
3/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
8/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
8/81
9/81

2/82

46

94
213
917

33
40
11

72
80
60

1/82
5/81
11/81

45
49
15

311
311c

48
48

84
84

5/81
5/81

58
59

667
622
618
602
604
256
252
668
606
620
612
616
257
253
569
614
255
250
251

57
57
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
44
44
47

93
93
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
82
82
83

8/81
3/81
8/81
12/81
12/81
5/81
4/81
8/81
12/81
8/81
12/81
12/81
5/81
5/81
8/81
12/81
5/81
4/81
4/81

65
65
65
64
64
54
54
65
64
65
64
64
54
54
65
64
54
54
54

93

33

72

1/82

20

63

4/81

25

52

52
52
52
52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
83

5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81

62
62
62
62
62
62
58

43
43
47
55
43
43
47
43
43

81
81
83
91
81
81
83
81
81

5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81

53
53
53
53
53
53
53
53
53

263
262
265
564
267
266
268
261
260

Currant issue
(pane numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
descriptions
data
tissue date]
(*)

311
311c
68

48
48
30

84
84
70

5/81
5/81
4/81

59
39

50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
310c
217

19

63,80

5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
8/81
4/81
5/81
5/81
8/81

49
49
49
49
49
49
40
25
49
49
49

39
40
31
20
48
48
40

80
80
80
71
63
84
84

17
17

61
61

11/80
3/81

19
19

16
12,16

8/81
8/81

15
15

9/81

15

961

36

61
61
77
74

249

25
13,25
25
47

67
67
67
83

3/81
7/81
4/81
4/81

35
35
51
51

310
310c

48
48

84
84

5/81
5/81

49
49

345

49

87

1/82

56

345c
280
64

50
45
30,47

87
82
70,83

1/82
5/81
4/81

56
56
56

346

49

88

1/82

56

346c
95
286
287
225
224

50
15,35
45
47
40
40

88
73
82
83
80
80
80

1/82
6/81
5/81
5/81
4/81
4/81
8/81

227

56
43
37
37
22
22
22

40
87

11/81

340

15

49
87

11/01

I

72

.

Gross business product
Fixed weighted price index
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes...
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Implicit price deflator, percent changes
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic invest.-See Investment, capital.

Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
Average workweek
Average workweek, components
Average workweek, Dl
Housing
Housing starts
,
Housing units authorized by local hldg. permits
Residential GPD1, constant dollars
Residential GPOI, percent of GNP

34

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titlesand Sources of
Series," following this index)

Implicit price deflator, GNP
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Imports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income ..
Corporate profits with IVA and CCA
Corp. profits with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income .
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
•Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol. . .
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes .
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad1
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income, less transfers, constant dollars
Personal income, less transfers, constant dols. rate of chg.
Personal income, ratio to money supply
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCA
Rental income of personswithCCA pet. of nat'l. income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, rnfg., and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial materials prices, Dl
Industrial production - See als'i International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
Installment debt-See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance, Dl
Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate

340c

50

341

49

341c

652
651
288
289
220

52
223
51
51c
108
282
283
284
285
348
349
53
13
23
967
76
75
73
74
47

50
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
14,19
39
31
45
47
45
47
50
50
19
23
28
37
24
22
20
20
14,20,58

966
47c

37
39

5
962
45

12,16
36
18

87

11/81

15

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
63

11/81
8/81
8/81
5/81
5/81
4/81
6/81
6/81
10/81
10/81
8/81
5/81

15
65
65
57
57
55
22

71"
82

22

22
40
56

83
82
83
88
88
63
65
69
79
75

5/81
56
5/81
I 57
/
5/81
8/81
8/81
6/81

67
65
63
63
63,94
78
75

61
74
62

12/81
1/82

36

1/82

36

7/81
7/81
7/81
7/81
7/81

24
24
24
24
24

12/80
7/81

24'

2/82
1/82
2/81

18
18
18

NOTE: Cl, composite index; DI, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).




111

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Srira tulos
e coni|)liiU) titlw in "Titlosuito1 Smirastif
StiriKi," ftdiowiiif) this index)

Intonst, n o t , .
Intfiffssl, not, p green t ol i<yliomjl income
InterttSl Kites
Bank rates tin short-usim business lomis
Corpomte Iwiui yifilds
fiulwal furtsls mtff
Mo ft nap yiftkJs, sneomlicy market
Municipal fount! yields
Prime rote clwtyort by I) inks
Treasury bill fans
Treasury liemt yir!ris
Inter muHiato tnatur in Is-=•*!(!« Wholesale prises.
International tHJitijiiirisons
Consumer prills
Canada, index
Canada, inercont e l u n p i
I" ranee, imtax
,
TfiHice, tiereeni clumps
Italy, iiulf.ss
I tidy, percent change's
Japan,Indus
Japan, p t r a n l chawps
Utiitfifl Kingdom, index
United Kingdom, pnrconi changes
United Slutus, intlo::
United Stilus, porcw.t tliantjes
Wnst finnminy. infim
Wirst Germany, percent clionyas
Industrial production

,

franco

Inily ,.,..
Japan
Qf.CD. hiropcan eoumries
United Kinfldom . .
United States
West Germany . . . .
Stock prices
Canada
,
Franco
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom . , ,
United States
West Germany
Iniermitiorml sra)s.i;itic« -See also Foreign Untie.
Balance on ipwki and SHVICBS
Balance on mofehandisa trarlo
IIsports, murcliundisft, adjusted, uxe. military
t; sports, merchandise, anal fixe. militiiry aid
Exports of aiirieulturrl products
Fsports of pods and sorviens, exc. tnilitary
fixiiorts of iumeh!Ctrii'j:l machinery
Imports, iiinrclrandiso, .id|ust(«J, uxe. military
Imports, merchandise, iot«l
Imports uf uutoniuliilo!! and parts
Imports of pods and s ?rvie«s, total
..
Imports of petfoteum * nd products
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Income on U.S. itivos' merits abroad
Inventories
Business inwiitoicos, dtsnfjS}, constant dollars . .
Business invontoiios, ulianp, current dollars
.
Business inventories, olimujn, percent of CiNP
Finished pods, mam f,jetumrs'
Inventories on tend mnl on order, net ehajige
ttwfintories to sate ratio, mft(. and trmlo (doflatfid)
Inventory investment «nd purchasing, Cl
,.
Manufaetuiing and tr.Hlo, constant dollars
Manufacturing mid tr.nle, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies on hand and «n order, mfg
Materials ami suMplieL on hand and on order, mfg.,
change
«
'
Investment, capital
Capital a;) prop rial ions, manufacturing}, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, mnnufacturing, now, Dl
Capital tnvoslmniH ccmmitiriBnts, Cl
Construction contracts, eommoreial and industrial
Construction expend t ires, business and machinery
and equipment satos
Gross private doniestc investment
Fixed in vest iran l, constant dollars
Fixed investment, sumsnt dollars
Inventories, business, change in-Soo Inventories.
Nonresidentia), total constant dollars
Nonresidentia'l, total, percent of GNP
Producers' durable f quip., nonmsicl, constant dol.
Residential, total, constant dollars
Residential, total, lorcent of GNP
Structures, ronres:dential, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dolbis
New order;;, capital gauds, nondefense, constant
doljars
New orders, capital p.ids, notidefense, current
dollars

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
tumilusr

Charts

Tables

Serifs
Historical
[JRScripttoni
{in t;i
(issue d
{*)

288
289

5/81
5/81

57
57

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115

8/81
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82
2/82

46
46
46
46
46
46
46
46

11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
3/81
3/81
11/80
11/80

68
68
68
68
69
69
69
69
68
68
59
59
68
68

Swiis titlis
(Sim compile tiiliss in "Tillns and Smirws ot
Sofirs," lollowinjj this i n t o )

Plant and etjuipmniti
Business exjiwifli Hirsts, in ivy
R;:snifissfisqietsfliUms,new, 01
Contracts and ordists, constant dollars
"::ntmcts and orders, curront dollars
InviMtitunit, fnreit)])
lrr«:nw on fonwjn ori«!stnifiiits in U.S
Ineumfi on U.S. uwivtHiKiiUK ubuwrf
ltaly™Si!f? Interrajiinnal cornpiuisoos.

El

Set us
mimlit't

81
070
20
10

24
30
12,23
23

ill

652
651

57
57

93
93

9/«i
9/81

^:;
. ?:^

30
15,30
30

4/81
6/81
1/82

39
39
39

930
930c
952
3

10
39
36
16

11/81
11/81
?Jl\?,
0/81

15

();iinp;:sitf: index
Ci;mu'h tr ~M:V\, \" " •*' ':w

910
310c

950

10
39
36
33
13,31

11/81
11/81
2/82
l?/ol
10/81

Vi

ni!f.ru:-'r<;.'\

44
40

11/81
9/81

28

9/81

28

9/B1
8/81

U

J;jpi!"» Scr !"itt ! nvl *)i;.:l :',;ni.(t:::r,'ius,

59*'

96
96
95
95
96
96
95
95
95
95
84,95
84,95
95
95

723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725

58
SB
58
58
58
58
14,20,58
58

94
94
94
94
94
94
63,94
94

12/81
12/81
12/81
12/81
12/81
12/81
7/81
12/81

66
66
66
66
66
66
24
66

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

7/81
7/81
7/81
7/81
7/81
6/79
7/81

70
70
70
70
70
36
70

667
622
618
602
604
620
612
616
669
614
652
651

57
57
57
56
56
57
56
57
56
56
57
56
57
57

93
93
93
92
92
93
92
93
92
92
93
92
93
93

8/81
8/81
8/81
12/81
12/81
8/81
12/81
8/81
12/81
12/81
8/81
12/81
8/81
8/81

65
65
65
64
64
65
64
65
64
64
65
64
65
65

30
245
247
65
36
77
915
70
71
31
975
78

26,42
42
47
27
13,26
27
11
15,27
27
Z6
38
27

68,81
81
83
68
68
'68>
60
68
63
68
76
68

4/81
4/81
4/81
9/81
9/81
10/81
11/81
10/81
10/81
9/81
1/82
9/81

51
51
51
28
28
28
15
28
28
28
48
28

26

68

9/81

28

733
733e
736
736e
737
737c
738
738c
732
732c
320
320c
735
735c

59
59"

59*'
59"
59
49
49,59

L

I -iiii:- v.:rt 'vx <.u\ t :r ...:•;'«.!', :vx ,to !s;i::.'i .^ a < t;1: .

* 1)1 ;:l:,
,-|

L jfci'.t "> *;l kusKt: t it! .i.'»
t.i(H:;ri assets, clKi i1 in tn::il
Itiars ft1.'Crprl i.

14
104

H »
. v,\ 'x
l\.\iU'ri;j!;i utul supplu1" ur 1\\MX\ :i:ul 0,1 iirdur, 'Mh.\.

913
78




is
18
is

Mjt"riLi!s, ir:l,'otr\r h ,i r'\:r

12,21
20

ui!;:!r f(;:tuls iuu\

Vioney iiu:l fii'anci:il fl w$. £*l

Money si:{:;)ly Ml, [ [>rre:it

Mati;!,(;NPt l ;."i-i.-yH|if:lyMi
Ratio tsiTsuwuil inni;-,s; to ir.cncy sjpfilv
:ij; i y '•

itiiit v

917

11

11/81

IS

104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117

13,31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

10/81
8/81
a/8i
8/81

40
40
40
40
40
40
40

27
24
8
20
10

23
23
12,21
12,23
23
53
21
21

a/ai

13/81
8/81
7/81

46
46

N

97
11
965
914

?A
24
37
11
23

66
66
75
60
66

10/81
10/81
10/81
11/81
3/81

33
33
33
15
32

24

67

9/81

28

243
242

42
42

81
81

4/81
4/81

51
51

88
248
88
89
249
87
241

25
47
25
25
47
25
42
42

67
83
67
67
83
67
81
81

4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81

51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51

23

66

9/81

26

240

National defense- -St;«i Defense.
National Govfirninmit--Soe GovornniBnt.
National iiiKtinuj'-Sisn Income.
New or (tors, mancif s c u m s '
CnpiUiI (joods indus ritss, n»ndR(«nsfi, constant d u l . . .
Capital yocjds indus 'rins, nondoftsnse, current do). „ . .
Consumer goods «mJ oiaterials, constant dollsis
Contracts and orders, silasit ami (Hjuip., constain dol.
Contracts and orders, plant and mi nip., current dol. .
Defense products
„
Durable g»ods imJintnes, constant dollars
Durable goods imlu Jtries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, miinufact jring, 01
Nonresidential fix^fl inwstment, OPOt
Producers' dur.ible ojquipnnont, constant dollars
Structures, constan dollars
,
Total, constant dHllisrs
Total, [Hireftnt H( G \'P

Obligations incurred, Defense Department
0ECD, European countries, industrial production...
Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Output-Set) also GwEsmitiungl product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, cottttant dollars
Labor cost per uni' of
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Per hsjur, uriwite hi sinsss sector
Per hour, private bisinnss sector, percent ehijnges.
Rotio to capacity, 1 lanufuuturing (BKA)
Ratio to capacity, nanufacturing (FRBJ
Ratio to capacity, s w;e;riais
,
Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing

548
7
6

9/81
9/81
9/81
9/81
9/81
10/81
9/81

9/ei

9S4
971

9/81
1/82

248

4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81

517
721

3/81
12/81

49
62
358
370

370c
83
82
84
21

15,30
50
50
50
20
20
20
16

27
9/81
26
23
66
24
NOTE: C l , c o n p o s i t e i n d e x ; D l , d i f f u s i o n i n d e x ; GPDI, gross p r i v a t e domestic investment; NIPA, n a t i o n a l income and product accounts.
*The number shown i n d i c a t e s the page on which the s e r i e s d e s c r i p t i o n appears i n the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).

112

m

70

4/81
6/81
10/81
12/81
12/81
8/81
8/81
8/81
8/81

15

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources ol
Series," following this index)

Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of agi!
Females 20 years and over
„
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GMP
Personal income-See Income.
Personal saving
„
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and products, import:;
Plant and equipment-See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Business expenditues for, DI
Contracts and orders for, constant dollars
Contracts and orders lor, currant dollars
Population, civilian employment as percent ol . . .
Price indexes
Consumer prices-See also international comparisons.
All items, index
AH items, percent changes
Food,index
Fond, percent changes
Deflators, NIPA
Fixed weighted, gross business product, index
Fixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changes
Implicit price deflator, GMP. index
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Industrial materials
Industrial materials, components
Industrial materials, DI
Labor cost, price per unit of
Sensitive prices, change in
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, D)
Wholesale prices
AH commodities, index
All commodities, percent change
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
Crude materials, index
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, DI
Retail trade, DI
Wholesale trade, DI
-.
Prime contracts, military
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresid., GPDI
Production-See Industrial production and GNP.
Productivity
Output per hour, nonfarm business" sector.,
Output per hour, private business sector
Output per hour, private business sector, pet. changes .
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA,
constant dollar
Corporate, after taxes, with I VA and CCA, cur. d o l . . . .
Corporate, with I VA and CCA
Corporate, with IVAand CCA, pet. of nat'l. income . . .
Manufacturing and trade, DI
Manufacturing, DI
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVAand CCA to corporate domestic
income
Proprietors' income with I VA and CCA
Proprietors' income with I VA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. inc..

Historic
data
descriptions
(issue date)

453
452
451

51
51
51

2/81
2/81
2/81

20
20
20

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47

4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81

50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50

292
293
614

46
46
56

5/81
5/81
12/81

58
58
64

61
970
20
10
SO

24
38
12,23
23
18

3/81
3/81
9/81

9/81
2/81

34
34
32
32
20

320
320c
322
322c

49
49,59
49
49

3/81
3/81
3/81
3/81

59
59
59
59

311
311c
310
310c
23

48
48
48
48
28

58
59
49
49
36

967
26
92

37
29
13,28

84
84
84
69
79
75
70
69

5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
1/82
1/82
12/81
4/81

60*

13,28
37

69
75

3/81
2/82

36
36

330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
26

48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
29

85
85
86
86
85
85
86
86
86
86
70

6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
12/81

59
59
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60

976
978
977
525
109

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

1/82
1/82
1/82
12/81
2/82

48
49
48
64
46

25

67

4/81

84,95
84,95
84
84

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Reserves, free
idential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDI
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures-See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars

Salaries-See Compensation,
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current, dollars
Manufacturing and trade soles, DI
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Soiling prices-See Prices, selling.
Sensitive prices, change in
State and local government-See Government.
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, DI
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order .
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
change
Surplus-See Government.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date]

(*)

93
89
249

72
67
83

1/82
4/81
4/81

45
51
51

59
54

65
65

10/81
10/81

31
31

80

5/81

49

V67
65
65
76
68
65
65

9/81
10/81
10/81
1/82
10/81
10/81
10/81

28
28
28
48
28
31
31

213

40

69
57
56
973
77
59
54

24
14,22
22
38
27
22
22

295
298
290
292
293

46
46
46
46
46

82
83
82
82
83

5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81
5/81

37
58
58
58
58

13,28

69

4/81

60

13,28
37
27

69
75
68

3/81
2/82
9/81

36
36
28

26

68

9/81

28

2/82
2/82

46
46

19
968
78

36*
114
115

Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields . .

U

358
370
370c
916

50
50
50
11

10/81
12/81
12/81
11/81

18
16

28
28

4/81
4/81

37
37

80
79
286
287
972
960
15
916
22

28
28
45
47
38
37
29
11
29

4/81
4/81
5/81
5/81
1/82
8/81
7/80
11/81
4/81

37
37
37
37
48

81
282
283

29
45
47

4/81
5/81
5/81

37
56
56

16

8/81

18

284

5/81

57

285

5/81

57

Quit rate, manufacturing .

Rental income of persons, with CCA
Rental income of persons, with CCA, percent of national
income

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

61
' 61
61
15

38
15
37

Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, averarje
Help-wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio . . ,
IniMal claims, avg. weekly, unemploy, insurance
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance, DI .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Number unemployed, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females, 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males, 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployment rates .
15 weeks and over
insured, average weekly
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change in
United Kingdom-See International comparisons.

Velocity of money
GNP to money supply M l , ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio .
Vendor performance

Wages and salaries-See Compensation.
West Germany-See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities, percent changes
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
Crude materials, index
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
Sensitive prices, change in
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing,
components
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, DI .

91
60
5
962
3

15,18
17
12,16
36
16

62
61
61
74
61

2/81
3/81
2/82
1/82
8/81

20
19
18
18
18

446
445
447
444
37
4

51
51
51
51
18,51
16

89
89
89
61

2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
8/81

20
20
20
20
20
18

44
45
43

18
18
18

62
62
62

2/81
2/81
2/81

20
18
20

96
25

21
21

64
64

10/81
9/81

26
26

107
108
32

31
31
12,21

8/81
8/81
2/82

40
40
28

330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
92
1

48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
13,28
12,16

85
85
86
86
85
85
86
86
86
86
69
61

6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
6/81
4/81
8/81

59
59
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
15

961

36

77
74

9/81

15

89
62,89

NOTE: Cl, composite index; DI, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).




113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect relationships or order among the
series. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data;
"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter).
To save space, ths commonly used sources listed below are
referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce.
Bureau of the Census: Source 3 —U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Source 4—Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System.

Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research. Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(23.66)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current
dollars (M).-Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).-Tie Conference
Board
(24.66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (VI)
American Council of Life Insurance: Federal National
Mortgage Association: US. Department of Housing and
Urban Development. Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,71)
34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).- Source
1
(29,70)
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972
dollars (smoothed) (M). -Sources 1. 2, and 3(13,26,68)

Following the source for each series is an indication of the
pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding
Guide"' also lists chart and table page numbers for each
series.

13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun &
Bradstreet. Inc.: seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic
Research. Inc.
(23.65)

37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sourees 2 and 3
{18,51,62,89)

I-A. Composite Indexes

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).- Dun &
Bradstreet. Inc.
(33,72)

910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes
series 1. 5, 8. 12. 19, 20. 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 106)
(M).-Source 1
(10.39.60)
913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments
(includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all
manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(29.70)

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over ( E O M ) . - A m e r i c a n Bankers
Association
(33,72)

914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

915. Composite index of inventory investment and
purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 92) (M).-Source
1
(11.60)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19, 26,

18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources 2 and 3(13,62)

19. Index of stock prices, 500 commor stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13.28,59,69.96)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 week;; and
over(M).-Sourc@s2 ami 3
(18,62)

917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes
series 104, 106, 110) (M).-Souree 1
(11.60)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3. and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-U.S. Department of Labor. Employment
and Training Administration
(18.62)

920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(includes series 4 1 , 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10.39.60)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers,
manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(16.61)

46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).
The Conference Board
(17,61)

930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
income (Q).-Source 1
(29.69)

47. Index of industrial production, total (M). Source
4
(14.20.39,58.63.78.94)

23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials
(M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau. Inc.
(Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981. this
series may not be reproduced without written permission
from Commodity Research Bureau. Inc.}
128.69.79)
24. Value of manufacturer's new order;, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).-Source
2
(23.66)

48. Employee-hours
(M).-Souree 3

80) (M).-Source 1

(11.60)

940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging compasite index (series 930) (M).-Source
1
(11.60)

1-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(12,16.61.77)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (16.61)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3

(16.61)

4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3

(16,61)

5. Average weekly initial claims for
insurance, State programs (M).-U.S.
Labor. Employment and Training
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
Analysis

unemployment
Department of
Administration:
of Economic
(12,16.61)

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in current dollars (M).-Source 2(21,64,77)
7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in 1972 dollars (M).™Sources 1, 2. and
3
(21,64)
8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1972 dollars <M).-= Sources 1. 2. and
3
(12,21,64)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by

114



25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
business sector (Q).-Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)
27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources
1. 2, and 3
(23,66)
28. New private housing units started, tctal (M).—Source
2
(25,67)
29. Index of new private housing units aithorized by local
building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving
slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(12,21.64)

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and
on order, manufacturing (M).-Souree 2
(2(>,68)

40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries-mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M). Source 3
(17.62)
41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Source 3
(14.17.62)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M).- Sources 2 and 3
(17.62)

in nonagricultural

establishments
(17,39.61)

49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(20.63)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (M), -Source 1
(14,19.39.63)
52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source

1

(19,63)

53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and
3
{19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores m current dollars (M) Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).-•->
Source 1
(22.65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars ( M ) . =
Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M).—
Sources 1. 2, and 3
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of
Michigan. Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M). Sources 1
2. and 3
(22,65)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)
(M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and The Conference
Board
(17,61)

84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).—Source
4
(20,64;

61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,

86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1(25,67)

total (Q).-Source 1

(24,67)

(31,71)

88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)

63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).—
Source 3
(30,70)

89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of
working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(18,62)

65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Source
2
(27,68)

91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(15,18,62)

87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

92. Change in sensitive crude materials prices (PPI of crude
materials less agricultural products) (smoothed) ( M ) . Sources 1 and 3
(13,28,69)
93. Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Source 4
(33,72)

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).-Source
4
(35,73)

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)

68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic
product (1972 dollars), noniinancial corporations—ratio
of current-dollar compensation of employees to real
gross corporate product (Q).—Source 1
(30,70)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
(EOM).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)

69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).—Source
2
(24,67)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars
(EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(15,27,68)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,
in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).—Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(15,35,73)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM).-Source 2
. (21,64)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, l r 000 manufacturing
corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board (24,66)
102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).-Sources
1 and 4
(13,31,71)

74. Index of industrial production,
manufactures (M).—Source 4

(20,63)
nondurable
(20,63)

75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods ( M ) . Source 4
(22,65)
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(24,67)
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales
(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).—
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(27,68)
78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2
(27,68)

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
4
(35,73)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,72)

115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S.
Department of the Treasury
(34,73)

(28,69)

81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate
domestic income (Q).—Source 1
(29,70)
82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).—Source
4
(20,64)
83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).—
Source 1
(20,64)




(M).-Source 1

(36,74)

960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
700 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(35,75)
961. Diffusion index of average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing—20 industries (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(36,74,77)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).-Source 1
and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(36,74)
963. Diffusion index of number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls—172 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)
964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries—35 industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital
appropriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries
(Q).—The Conference Board
(37,75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries
(M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials—
13 industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and
Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(35,75,79)

970. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, total—18 industries (Q).-Source
1
(38,76)

80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars

(Q).-Source 1

952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components

106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3,
and 4
(13,31,71)

(28,69)

(Q).-Source 1

951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)

968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—
53-82 industries ( M ) . - S t a n d a r d & Poor's
Corporation
(37,75)

113. Net chance in consumer installment credit (M).-Source
4
(32,72)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Source 4
(34,72)

79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars

950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)

105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1,3,
and 4
(31,71)

73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures

(M).-Source 4

(34,72)

1-C. Diffusion Indexes
85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4

62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of
industrial production, manufacturing (M).—Sources 1
and 4
(15,30,70)

66. Consumer installment credit {EOM)-Source 4; FRB
seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally
adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current
figure
(35,73)

119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4

116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-Citibank and U.S. Department of the
Treasury
(34,73)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration
(34,73)

971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
700 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source,)
(38,76)
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and tradeabout 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing
and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q). •
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
,
(38,76)
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about
700 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

115

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about
450 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 250
businessmen reporting (Q). -Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

Il-A. National Income and Product
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, nil industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(26, 42, 68, 81)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(40,80)
213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(40,80)
217. Per capita *ross national product in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)
223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
(40,63)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
Source li
(40,80)
225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(40,80)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)

247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1

248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential,
as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)

295. Business saving- undistributed corporate profits plus
capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (Q) Source
1
(46,82)

249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross
national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)

(46,82)

293. Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of
disposable personal income (Q).—Source 1 (46,83)

298, Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).—Source
1
(46,83)

Il-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (U).
Source 1
(48,84)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).- Source
3
(49,59,84,95)

253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)

322. Index of consumer prices, food (M)

255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82)

331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for further
processing (M).--Source 3
(48,85)

257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
262. Federal Government purchases of gocds and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
263. Federal Government purchases of gocds and services in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

Source 3(49,84)

330. Index of producer prices, all commodities (M) Source
3
(48,85)

332. Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components ;M). Source 3
(48,86)
333. Index of producer prices, capital equipment (V)
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Index of producer prices, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Index of producer prices, industrial commodities (M).
Source 3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in
manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,
and seasonality (M).-Source 3
(49,87)

265. Federal Government purchases of gocds and services as
a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(43,81)
267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Sourae 1
(43,81)

345. Index of average hourly compensation, all! employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,87)

268. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross natioital product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q), Source
3
(45,88)

280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1
(45,82)

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes (Q).- Source
3
(50,88)

237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q),-Source 1
(41,81)

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)

349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).~Source 3
(50,88)

238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)

358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income ( Q ) . Source 1
(47,83)

370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
current dolliirs (Q).~Source 1
(41,80)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent
of gross national product (Q),~Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in current dollars (Q).™Source 1
(41,81)

240. Gross privet! domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).~Source 1
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q)-Source 1
(42,81)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(42,81)

116



(45,82)

286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1
(47,82)
287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (M). Source
3
(49,87)

It-C. Labor Force, Employment and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)

(45,82)

441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M)>-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, tabor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

565. National defense purchases as a percent of gros
national product (Q).—Source 1
(55,91

47. United States, index of industrial production, total

446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

570. Employment in defense products industries (M).Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economi
Analysis
(55,91

320. United States, index of consumer prices, all items
(M).-Source 3
(48,59,84,95)

447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force
survey (M).—Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
448. Number employed, part-time workers for economic
reasons, labor force survey (M).—Sources 2 and

3

(51,89)

451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

577. Defense Department personnel, military, active dut
(E0M).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller
Washington Headquarters Services
(55,91
578. Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hin
employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD
Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91

453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19
years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions ant
military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense
OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program an<
Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau o
Economic Analysis
(54,91

452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

Il-D. Government Activities

588. Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense product:
(M).-Source 2
(54,91

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income
and product accounts (Q)-Source 1
(52,90)

Il-E. U.S. International Transactions

501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).-j
Source 2
(56,92]

502. Federal Government expenditures; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

604. Exports of agricultural products (M).—Source 2
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)
511. State and local government receipts; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
512. State and local government expenditures; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source I (52,90)
517. Oefense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—
U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90)
525. Defense Department military prime contract awards for
work performed in the United States (M).-U.S.
Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington
Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial
Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products
((VI).- Source 2
(53,90)
557. Output of defense and space equipment (M).— Source

(56,92

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).-Source 2
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants

(Q).-Source 1

(57,93)

620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source 1 (57,93)

725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—
Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
732. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).—
Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysts (59,95)
733. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis

(59,95)
736. France, index of consumer prices (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Instituto Centrale
di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)

743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Statistics Canada
(Ottawa)
(59,96)

667. Balance on goods and services (Q).-Source 1(57,93)

745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).-Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)

669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)




723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).-Statistics
Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)

652. Income on foreign investments in the United States
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

(54,91)

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)

722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production ( M ) . Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)

742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices ( M ) - T h e
Financial Times (London)
(59,96)

559. Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
561. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)

721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)

651. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q).-Source
1
(57,93)

668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

4

(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—(nstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source 2:
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612. General imports, total (M).-Source 2

(M).-Source 4

Il-F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96)

746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

(59,96)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Instituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Tokyo)
(59,96)

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