Full text of Business Conditions Digest : February 1968
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bed DEVELOPMENTS February 1968 DATA THROUGH JANUARY S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF THE CENSUS Jh\$ report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis Division under the direction of Jttiius Shiskm, Chief. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are— Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and review, Barry A. Beckman—Specifications for computer processing, Gerald F« Donahoe—New projects, Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods, Betty F. TunstaH—Collection and compilation of baste data. Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine Censky of the Administrative and Publications Services Division. The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources on the back cover of this report U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Alexander B. Trowbridge, Secretary BUREAU OF THE CENSUS A. Ross Eckler, Director Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician Subscription price is $7 a year ($1,75 additional for foreign mailing), Single issues are 60 cents; Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents, Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.O/2M02, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office. ABOUT THE COVER—Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business activity. The center panel illustrates this concept, The vertical bar represents a contraction* the fop curve, the Leading Series which usually fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period; the bottom curve, the tagging Series which fall after a contraction has begun and rise after it ends, Series are also classified by economic process within each timing group. Processes are indicated in the squares bordering the panel. bed BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list of indicators and their classification into "leading," "roughly coincident," and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years. The business cycle turning dates are also those designated by NBER. In addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total of machinery and equipment sales and business construction) have been constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis. The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any approach to business cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business conditions. The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted. About 115 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. (This figure includes 19 foreign series in addition to 96 U.S. series.) Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source agency. A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this report. February 1968 DATA THROUGH JANUARY DEVELOPMENTS CONTENTS Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Background Materials New Features and Changes for This Issue 3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations iii iv v vi Descriptions and Procedures Introduction Timing Classification Economic Process Classification "Short List" of Indicators Method of Presentation Concepts and Procedures References , How to Read Charts 1 and 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 Section One—Basic Data Table Chart Chart Table Table 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months 6 1A. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present 9 IB. Series for International Comparisons From 1948 to Present . . . . 30 2A. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series 33 2B. Latest Data for International Comparisons 46 Section Two—Analytical Measures Chart 2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present Table 3. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes Table 4. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components 51 54 58 For Index—Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue. CONTENTS Continued Appendixes Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle Series Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series 65 66 68 73 74 75 Index Series Finding Guide 79 Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing (Minor economic processes and the number of series in each process are shown for each classification. See the index and back cover for series titles) ^\. Cyclical \, Timing Economic ^-\ Process \, 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (14 series) LEADING INDICATORS (36 series) Marginal employment adjustments (5 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS (25 series) LAGGING INDICATORS (11 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series). Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Long-duration unemployment (1 series) Comprehensive production (3 series) Comprehensive income (2 series) Comprehensive consumption and trade (3 series) II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE (8 series) III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (14 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) New investment commitments (8 series) IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) Inventory investment and purchasing (7 series) V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Sensitive commodity prices (1 series) Stock prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (4 series) Comprehensive wholesale prices Unit labor costs (2 series) (2 series) Flows of money and credit (6 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Money market interest rates (4 series) (11 series) VI. MONEY AND CREDIT (17 series) OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES (16 series) Backlog of investment commitments (2 series) Investment expenditures (2 series) Inventories (2 series) Comprehensive retail prices (1 series) Outstanding debt (2 series) Interest rates on business loans and mortgages (2 series) VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS (6 series) Foreign trade and payments (6 series) VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES (9 series) federal Government activities (9 serifs) iii BACKGROUND MATERIALS A revised list of indicators was introduced in the April issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Research work for the revised list was carried out by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which has been preparing lists of economic indicators and research reports in the field of business cycle analysis for more than 40 years. This revised list was published by the National Bureau in March 1967, and is the result of a periodic review made by that agency of its previous list of indicators of aggregate economic activity. This is the third revision of the list originally published by the National Bureau in 1938. The method of preparing the new list, the reasons for adding certain series and dropping others, and an explanation of the classification system used are described in a new report, INDICATORS OF BUSINESS EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 261 Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10016. Other reports on the historical studies and methods of making current interpretations of the indicators are listed in this book. The revised list includes some new series, discontinues some of those on the previous list, and has assigned timing classifications to some series previously unclassified by timing. The chief features of the new list follow: 1. The major principle of classification is a fourfold grouping by cyclical timing: Leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators, and other selected series. The first three categories take into account timing at both peaks and troughs; the fourth group includes economic activities that have an important role in business cycles but have displayed a less regular relation to them. The new list of indicators includes 36 leading series, 25 roughly coincident series, 11 lagging series, and 16 series unclassified by timing—88 series in all; 69 are monthly and 19 are quarterly. This list includes 13 series not on the previous NBER list and omits 5 series. In addition, 14 series previously unclassified by timing are assigned a timing classification. 2. The type of economic process represented by the series is used as a secondary principle of classification, with emphasis on the processes that are important for business cycle analysis. The 88 U.S. series are classified into eight major groups: (I) Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II) Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8 series; (III) Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series; (IV) Inventories and Inventory Investment, 9 series; (V) Prices, Costs, and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and Payments, 6 series; and (VIII) Federal Government Activities, 9 series. Each of these major categories is subdivided into economic processes that exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. For example, under Fixed Capital Investment, new investment commitments are distinguished from investment expenditures. 3. A short list of 25 indicators, drawn from the full list, is identified throughout BCD. This more selective list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging series; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. The short list involves little of the duplica- tion in economic coverage that is provided, for various reasons, in the full list. The series on the short list are identified by asterisks. 4. Two other groups of series are shown in BCD in addition to the 88 NBER indicators. They are "U.S. Series Under Consideration" (eight series not yet classified by cyclical timing and economic process but under consideration for the list of indicators) and "International Comparisons" (19\ series showing industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States). Changes in the 1966 list of indicators are as follows (series identification number and title): 13 series new to the 1966 list: 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods *71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks 101. National defense purchases 301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled *502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 511. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments *816. Manufacturing and trade sales 861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicle and parts 862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery 5 series on the previous list but omitted from the 1966 list: 4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries 15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over *51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York *64. Manufacturers' inventories, book value 111. Corporate gross savings 10 series specially constructed for business cycle studies at the suggestion of the NBER: *10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing 22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies *38. Index of net business formation 53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments *Denotes series included on "short list." IV • A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect new findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series and to report recent changes made by producing agencies in concept, composition, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement of series in relation to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc. Changes in this issue are as follows: 1.—New seasonal adjustment factors for 19 series have been computed by the X-ll version of Census Seasonal Adjustment Method II. These factors are shown through June 1968 in appendix D for all except two of the series (series 9 and 10). The new seasonal adjustment of the series on net business formation (series 38) has not been completed. The results of this adjustment will be published as soon as possible. The table below shows the beginning month for application of the new factors to each series. A comparison of the new and old factors indicates that no revisions were necessary in the seasonal factors for the periods preceding the dates shown. Series number Beginning month for new factor Series number Beginning month for new factor 5 13 U 18 30 33 37 39 72 July 1967 July 1967 July 1967 4th quarter 1967 August 1967 May 1967 August 1966 October 1967 December 1967 90 91 92 112 301 856 862 April 1967 May 1967 November 1967 November 1967 October 1946 December 1967 September 1967 D34 2d quarter 1967 2.—The series on vacancy rate in total rental housing (series 857) is now shown in unadjusted form throughout the report. A recent study has shown that there is no appreciable seasonal movement in this series. 3.—Data on employment and unemployment (series 4-0, 42, 4-3, and 502) have been revised throughout the report. These changes reflect the source agency!s new seasonal adjustment of the data. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Division of Employment and Unemployment Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. (Continued on reverse) The March issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is scheduled for release on March 28. * I H: 4.—The ratio of nonagricultural job openings unfilled to persons unemployed (series 855) has been revised from 1948 to date to reflect the revisions in component series. (See items 1 and 3.) 5.—The series on man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (series 511) has been revised from 194-7 to date. This revision reflects the source agency*s substitution of improved data on average weekly hours for several of the series components. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the division of Productivity Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. 6.—The series which include data on manufacturers1 sales and inventories (series 20, 31, 65, 71, 816, and 851) have been revised for the period beginning January 1966. These changes reflect the source agency1s modified estimating procedure, new benchmark, and new seasonal adjustment of data for textile mill products. Farther information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Industry Division, Bureau of the Census. 7.—Revised average changes and related measures for all except three series (series 14, 38, and 39) have been computed by the X-ll variant of Census Method II and are shown in appendix C (and in table 1 for Cl). Revised measures for series 14, 38, and 39 will be shown in a subsequent issue. 8.—Appendix F includes historical data for series 40, 42, 43, 301, 502, 511, 855, and 857. VI DESCRIPTIONS AND INTRODUCTION The business cycle is generally described as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been characteristic of American economic history, many economists do-not consider it inevitable. The causal relations among various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions have eventually turned into recessions and recessions into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures which relate to future rather than current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods, formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations in various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts. TIMING CLASSIFICATION On the basis of many years of research, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has compiled a list of indicators of aggregate economic activity and has classified these indicators according to whether they usually lead, roughly coincide with, or lag behind the cyclical movements in aggregate activity. The 1966 list, as issued by the NBER, is the basis for the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Prior to April 1967, their 1960 list was used. The series have been grouped and classified by the NBER as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lag- ging" indicators. These indicators are described as follows: Leading Indicators.—Series that usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these series pertains to orders and contracts, another to inventory investment, and so on. Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series that are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production, and retail sales. Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity. Also included in BCD are (a) "Other Selected U.S. Series," economic activities which are important in analyzing business cycles but have a less consistent relation to them; (b) "U.S. Series Under Consideration," indicators that measure important economic relationships but have not been classified by economic process and timing and, therefore, not yet incorporated into the list of 88 indicators; and (c) indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States. The business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high (peak) or low (trough) levels. As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred. (See appendix A for peak and trough dates.) ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION A secondary principle of classification, economic process, supplements the timing classification. All series are cross-classified according to these two principles. The major economic process categories are employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories' and inventory investment; prices, costs, and profits; money and credit; foreign trade and payments; and Federal Government activity. "SHORT LIST" OF INDICATORS A short, substantially unduplicated list of principal indicators provides a convenient way of summarizing the current situation and outlook. The NBER has identified, for this purpose, a short list of 25. This list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging indicators; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. These series are identified throughout BCD. METHOD OF PRESENTATION This report consists of two major sections as follows: Basic Data (chart 1, tables 1 and 2).—Data for all series are shown for the current and prior periods in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad view of past and current business cycle fluctuations is provided. Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 and 4).— Measures are presented which help to determine the magnitude and scope of, current changes in different processes, industries, and areas, and aid in evaluating the prospects of a turning point in the business cycle. A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on the back cover of this report. The series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES Several other concepts and procedures used in this report are summarized below: Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally adjusted data used for a series are the official figures released by the source agency. In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. The seasonal adjustment process usually accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment is needed for holidays with variable dates. Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of the variation about these moving averages, monthly data are also plotted. Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures which express what percentage of the components of an aggregate series has risen over given time spans. Their turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate. Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion indexes. Many of the component series used to make up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 4. During the current expansion, high values for the indicators are identified in table 2. These values are not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the highest values reached to date. Certain appendix materials are presented regularly in this report. These materials include historical data, adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other information helpful in interpreting trends in the indicators. REFERENCES Fuller explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate economic activity in analyzing current business conditions and prospects may be found in the following references: (1) Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes and First Differences," The Economic Journal, June 1958, pp. 288-301. (2) Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes," American Statistician vol. IX, No. 2 (June 1955), pp. 7-16. (3) Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C. Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1946. (4) Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, August 1966, pt. V, pp. 64-75. (5) Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National Bureau," The Review of Economics and Statistics vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August 1962), pp. 284291. (6) Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators," How Business Economists Forecast (William F. Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt. I, ch. 2, pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: PrenticeHall, 1966. (7) Moore, Geoffrey H., Editor, Business Cycle Indicators. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1961. (8) Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Occasional Paper 103. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1967. (9) Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of the National Bureau's Leading Indicators," Business Cycle Indicators vol. I, ch. 4, pp. 110-119. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1961. (10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical Turning Point Predictors," Journal of Business, April 1960, pp. 101-120. (11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators: The Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at the 34th session of the International Statistical Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August 24, 1963. Washington: Bureau of the Census, 1963. (12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 77. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1961. HOW TO READ CHARTS 1 AND 2 Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated by NBER. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER. CHART 1 - Series Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("3"= March) Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Series are arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by timing and economic process. R o m a n number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("11" = second quarter) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.*) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. B r o k e n line i n d i c a t e s a c t u a l monthly data for series where an MCD moving average* is plotted. Parallel lines indicate a break in continuity (data not available, changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.). 40 Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual ' series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. The scales should be carefully noted because they show whether or not the plotted lines for various series are directly comparable. CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Scale shows percent of components rising. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("2" = February) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. * Many of the more irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages as well as their actual monthly data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or 2!/2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various intervals. This line is also used to indicate anticipated quarterly data. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to some readers. Section ONE DATA charts and tables LEADING INDICATORS Employment and unemployment Fixed capital investment Inventories and inventory investment Prices, cosfs, and Money and credit ROUGHLY COINCIDENT LAGGING profits INDICATORS Employment and unemployment Production, income, consumption, and trade fixed capital investment Prices, cosfs, and profits Money and credit INDICATORS Employment and unemployment Fixed capital investment Inventories and inventory investment Prices, cosfs, and profits Money and credit OTHER U.S. SERIES Prices, cosfs, and profits Foreign trade and payments Federal Government activities Also U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION (unclassified series) and INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS (indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for selected foreign countries) Table 1 BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS Average percent change2 Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Unit of measure Nov. 1967 Oct. 1967 Jan. '67 Jan. '67 to date to date (with 4 (without5 sign) sign) Jan. 1968 Dec. 1967 3 1953 to 1967 (without sign)5 6 bed Current percent change3 Oct. to Nov. 1967 Nov. to Dec. 1967 Dec. to Jan. 1968 LEADING INDICATORS 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Marginal Employment Adjustments: *1 Avg workweek prod workers, mfg. ... *30. Nonagri. placements, all industries 2. Accession rate, manufacturing 5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (inverted 33 ) . 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted ) . III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Formation of Business Enterprises: *38 Index of net business formation 13. New business incorporations New Investment Commitments: *6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . 94. Construction contracts, value *10. Contracts and orders, plant and7 equip. . 11. New capital appropriations, mfg. 24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus .... 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings 7 Private nonfarm housing starts *29. New bldg. permits, private housing IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Inventory Investment and Purchasing: 21. Change in business inventories, all industries 7 8 *31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories 8 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories of materials and supplies8 26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer ^5) . . . . 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries u) 25. Change in unfilled8 orders, durable goods industries Hours Thousands Per 100 employ. . 40.7 474 4.7 r40.8 r476 Thousands Per 100 employ. . r209 1.3 r201 40.8 r479 P4.4 P40.5 p498 (NA) -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 2.9 4.5 0.5 2.1 4.6 +0.2 +0.4 -4.3 0..0 +0.6 -2.2 -0.7 +4.0 (NA) 1.2 r!98 pl.l 214 (NA) -0.9 +1.2 7.7 10.8 5.3 9.4 +3.8 +7.7 +1.5 +8.3 -8.1 (NA) 1957-59=100... 110.3 r!8,000 Number 112,* r 18, 403 113.2 13,168 (NA) (NA) +0.9 +0.9 1.1 3.5 0.8 2.5 +2.4 +2.2 +0.3 -1.3 (NA) (NA) 23.38 Bil. dollars 1957-59=100... 171 5.96 .Bil. dollars do do 4.61 Mil. sq. ft. floor space . . . r58.42 1,478 Ann. rate, thous. 1957-59=100 .. . 106.9 r23.54 168 r5.84 P5.73 r4.79 r26.37 166 r5.85 p2$.14 159 P5.94 P4.91 2.8 6,2 3.2 2.4 3.4 3.6 6.4 4.6 9.3 4.1 +0.7 -1.8 -2.0 -3.9 +3.9 +12.0 r4.92 +1.2 +2.2 +0.9 -0,1 +0.7 r63.17 rl,567 102.2 r64.08 rl,228 rll6.7 64.51 pl,419 p98.0 +2.6 +2.8 +1.7 6.5 7.9 6.2 8.5 7.2 3.9 +8.1 +1.4 +0.7 +6.0 -21.6 +15.6 -4.4 +14.2 -16.0 +0,7 5.1 2.6 +5.4 +0.2 5.4 3.8 +7.1 +2.3 (NA) +1.5 7.0 6.5 +2.2 +17.4 +1.9 -0.4 1.7 1.5 +0.9 -2.4 (NA) Ann. rate, bil.dol. do r4.5 r+9.2 (NA) -1.2 +0.2 -4.7 -4.2 +1.5 +2.7 -0.2 r+5,7 r+12.8 p+15.1 r45 r46 r54 r-0.2 r+Q*7 p-1.7 62 63 64 64 -0.9 3.8 5.0 +1.6 +1.6 50 51 48 50 +0,9 7.4 7.4 +2.0 -5.9 Bil. dollars . . . +1.07 r+0.06 r+1.13 p-1.12 0.85 0.50 1957-59=100... 97.7 99.1 100.1 99.8 -0.6 1.0 1.3 + 1.4 +1.0 -0.3 .1941-43=10... 95.66 92.66 95.30 95.04 +1.0 1.8 2.5 -3.1 +2.8 -0.3 +0.9 -0.9 Percent Ann. rate, bil.dol. Percent . do 55 (NA) -0.01 -1.01 +1.07 0.0 +4.2 -2.25 V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Sensitive Commodity Prices: *23. Industrial materials prices ® Stock Prices: *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks © . . Profits and Profit Margins: *16. Corporate profits after taxes 7 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries 7 18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.7 *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg VI. MONEY AND CREDIT Flows of Money and Credit: 98. Change in money supply and time deposits 8 8 85 Change in U.S. money suoply 33. Change in mortgage debt8 *113. Change in consumer installment debt8. . 8 112. Chanpe in business loans 110. Totat private borrowing 7 Credit Difficulties: 14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 3) 39. Delinquency rate, installment3 loans, 30 days and over (inverted ) Ann. rate, bil.dol. (NA) +0.6 0.6 5.2 (NA) Percent Cents 1957-59=100.. (NA) (HA) -1.3 -2.4 -0.2 1.3 2.4 0.5 4.1 5.6 0.6 (NA) (NA) -0.1 +6.3 3.69 5.83 2.42 0.76 7.44 6.3 2.49 2.89 1.34 0.86 2.77 11.0 -1.44 -3.36 -2.04 -1.32 -3.96 +5.28 (NA) +1.05 -2.46 (NA) +1.29 -0.42 -2.70 +5.73 +4.14 +6.7 -4.8 20.3 18.7 +10.7 -125.1 +39.4 +0.7 4.7 2.6 r99*5 + 10.08 Ann.rate,percent +7.32 do Ann. rate, bil.dol r+ 21.02 do +3.73 +5.36 do Ann. rate, mil. do Mil. dollars ... Percent r95.81 rl.66 99.4 +8.64 +6.00 r+22.07 +5.02 r+2.66 p72,672 r85.55 rlOO.3 P99.4 +5.28 p+3.24 p+7.32 +2.04 (NA) p*19.6l (NA) +4.60 r+8.39 p+12.53 1-192.56 1.74 116.62 -0.37 +0.67 +0.78 +0.11 +0.54 \ -4.8 Table 1 bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued Average percent change2 3 Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Job Vacancies: 301 Nonagri job openings until led 46. Help-wanted advertising Comprehensive Employment: 511. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments... Unit of measure Thousands 1957-59=100.. Oct. 1967 r360 186 Nov. 1967 r352 187 Dec. 1967 r345 190 Jan. 1968 Jan. '67 1953 to 1967 to date (without (without 5 sign) sign)5 6 Oct. to Nov. 1967 Nov. to Dec. 1967 Dec. to Jan. 1968 -0.7 -0.2 2.7 2.3 3.1 3.0 -2.2 +0.5 -2.0 +1.6 +3.5 -3.2 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 +1.5 +1.0 +0.2 -0.2 +0.3 +0.3 -0.7 +0.1 -0.3 +0.3 3.4 3.8 +11.6 +2.6 +5.4 -0.1 +0.4 4.7 4.1 4.2 5.9 0.0 +10.5 +4.3 0.0 -4.5 +5.9 +1.8 +0.9 +0.2 1.8 0.9 0.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 +2.0 +1.1 +1.7 +1.4 -0.4 +0.5 +0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 +1.0 +1.9 +1.1 +1.2 +0.3 +0.3 +0.6 +1.7 +0.5 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.9 +2.8 +1.4 +1.2 +2.8 (NA) 0.0 +2.9 +0.3 +0.6 0.9 0.9 1.4 5.4 +0.1 +1.4 +0.7 -1.4 +0.1 +0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 +0.3 +0.1 +0.3 +0.4 +0.3 +0.5 -13 77 93 -110 +163 -31 +0.9 +1.5 +1.4 +1.6 6.0 2.9 2.3 2.4 6.4 1.8 1.7 2.5 +3.7 +5.2 +4.8 +0.9 +5,3 +0.9 -1.5 +2.1 +1.4 -5.2 -3.4 -3.2 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.2 1.0 3.1 +1.9 (NA) +0.2 1.7 1.8 +1.5 +3.1 (NA) (NA) +0.3 0.3 0.5 +0.8 +0.9 (NA) (NA) +0.5 0.7 0.6 +0.9 +1.3 (NA) P357 p!84 Ann. rate, bil. man-hours ... r 132. 35 r 134. 37 r!34.10 P133.21 *41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . . Thousands 66,243 r66,9!8 r67,110 p67,146 do 42. Total nonagricultural employment 71,164 r71,017 r71,l66 r71,36l Comprehensive Unemployment: r3.8 3.7 3.5 *43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 3). . . Percent 4.3 45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, 3 2.2 do 2.3 2.3 State (inverted ) 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 do 40. Unemployment rate, married males (inv3) 1.9 II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE Comprehensive Production: 7 49. GNP in current dollars Ann.rate,bil.doL r807.3 do r679.6 *50. GNP in 1958 dollars 7 rl6l.8 pl6l.2 1957-59-100.. *47. Industrial production rl56.9 r!59.5 Comprehensive Income: Ann. rate, bil. dol. 635.9 p651.2 *52. Personal income r649.3 642.4 165.2 53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . do p!70.9 168.4 r!70.4 Comprehensive Consumption and Trade: (NA) Mil. dollars... rB7,807 r90,235 p92,772 *816. Manufacturing and trade sales Ann. rate, bil.dol. 57. Final sales7 r798.1 Mil. dollars... *54. Sales of retail stores 26,089 r 26, 411 r26,402 p27,176 III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Backlog of Investment Commitments: r78.40 96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus. .9 . Bil. dollars... r79.53 78.34 p78.41 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg. p20 . 77 do V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Comprehensive Wholesale Prices: 106.8 55. Wholesale pr ices, indus . commod.® . . . 1957-59-100.. 107.7 107.1 107.4 do 58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods® 108.1 107.6 107.2 107.1 VI. MONEY AND CREDIT Bank Reserves: Mil. dollars... +270 93 Free reserves 8 (inverted3)© p+138 +160 r+107 Money Market Interest Rates: 5.08 5.01 4.76 Per cent 114. Treasury bill rate® 4.59 do 6.57 6.87 116. Corporate bond yields ® 6.53 6.93 oo 5.18 5.36 115. Treasury bond yields® 5.44 5.19 ... .do 4.30 117. Municipal bond yields © 4.29 4.43 4.34 LAGGING INDICATORS 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Long-Duration Unemployment: *502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 0.6 0.6 0.6 15 weeks and over (inverted3) Percent III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Investment Expenditures: *61. Bus. expenditures, new pi ant and equip.7 Ann.rate, bil.dol. a62.05 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures . . r69.97 do P72.17 68.95 IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Inventories: *71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . Bil. dollars... r!38.27 r 139. 33 pHO.59 65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of finished goods P27.50 r26.92 do r27.15 Jan. '67 to date (with sign)4 Current percent change3 0.6 Table 1 BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 bed CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued Average percent change2 Basic data1 Series (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Unit of measure Oct. 1967 Nov. 1967 Dec. 1967 Jan. 1968 Jan. '67 to date (with sign)4 3 Jan. '67 1953 to 1967 to date (without5 (without sign) sign)5 6 Current percent change3 Nov. to Dec. 1967 Dec. to Jan. 1968 (NA) +0.2 -0.5 +1.4 +0,5 +0.5 (HA) +1.6 +1.0 Oct. to Nov. 1967 LAGGING INDICATORS-Continued V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Unit Labor Costs: 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product (1958 dol.), nonfin. corp.7. . . . Dollars *62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg 1957-59=100 ... VI. MONEY AND CREDIT Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment debt Mil. dollars .... *72. Commercial and industrial loans do outstanding Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages: *67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans7®. 118. Mortgage yields, residential ® Percent do. r!07.6 (HA) 107.8 r!07,3 76,088 76,506 76,88? 63,592 63,797 r64,845 6^65 5.96 6,77 6,81 plOB, 8 (NA) p65,5!8 6,81 +0.8 +0.3 0.8 0.5 0.9 . '0.6 +0.4 0.4 0.8 +0,6 1,2 1.0 • +0.3 -0.9 +0.2 1.0 1,1 2.2 0.6 +0.2 +1.8 +0.6 0.0 +0.3 0,3 0.2 +0,3 +0.3 (MA) OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Comprehensive Retail Prices: 81. Consumer prices® 1957-59=100... 117,8 117.5 118,2 (HA)' VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS 89. U.S. balance of payments:7 8 p-1, 832 Mil. dollars .... a Liquidity balance basis do b. Official settlements basis p-1, 204 8 do 88. Merchandise trade balance +316.5 +190. 8 +169.3 +79*1 do 86. Exports, excluding military aid 2,392,3 2,692,2 2,603.9 2,784.7 do 1-878 pi, 086 861. Export orders, durables exc. mot. veh.® (NA). - 796 (HA) r258 862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery . 1957-59=100... p255 r234 Mil. dollars 87. General imports 2,201.5 2,375.7 2,524.8 2,615.4 VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES 95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit (-), nat'l. income and prod, acct.7 8 84. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit 7(-)7 8 83. Federal cash receipts from public . . . . 82. Federal cash payments to public7 101. National defense purchases, current dollars7 91. Defense Dept. obligations, total 90. Defense Dept oblig procurement 99. New orders, defense products industries 92 Military contract awards in U S Ann. rate, bil.doi. do do. do... . (HA) -18.0 155.2 173.2 -432 +206 -15,9 +0.7 +2.9 +1.5 +1.3 432 1,319 82.2 4.1 12.6 9.0 3.2 308 573 57.7 3,6 12,6 6,4 2.9 -0.6 -6.6 -0.3 +4.0. 2.2 7.6 0,8 5.2 2.6 4-5 3.0 1.9 8.8 19.8 16,1 10.1 2.3 13.6 26.2 21.4 20.9 3. a -1,184 -1,669 +125.7 -237.4 -3.3 +12.5 +10,3 +23.7 +9.0 -9.3 +6.3 +7.9 +90.2 +6.9 (HA) (HA) +3.6 (HA) +1.5 +0.8 -0,2 .. . do Mil. dollars... . do Bil. dollars... . Mil. dollars r7,449 r2,735 4.09 3,665 r74.2 r6,565 r2,173 r3.Q6 r3,3QB 6,331 1,846 r3.98 3,479 P3.39 (HA) +1.9 +0.4 +0.7 < +3.1 +1.5 Percent . Ratio ' rl«*57 p84.3 1,54 pi. 52 (HA) -1.1 -0.2 1.2 0.9 2.2 1.0 +0.2 ,-1.9 -1.3 (HA) do 3.88 r3.?0 r3.54 P3.34 ,-0.7 2.9 2.0 -4.6 -4.3 -5.6 1957-59 = 100... r!19.6 rl22,5 rl2Q.2 p!21,l -0,3 1,2 0.9 +2.4 -1.9 +0.7 +1,1 6,6 8,5 +7.1 . . 5.5 0.4 3.8 +9,3 .+0.4 (IA) +0.8 +0,3 +9.2 .(HA) CM) m) +1.2 -3.6 -11*9 -20, 5 -15.0 +30.1 -25.2 +5.2 . -9.7 CM) (M) -14.8 (IA) U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION 850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg.7 851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg., trade. 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income7 855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled 856. Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices 857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing7® Ratio • do 1957-59=100... Percent 0,075 rO.108 115.3 rQ.118 rll5.8 (HA) rO.119 rll6.2 pO,130 (HA) -0.4 +0.2 -1.5 4.3 0,2 ''3,1 ; *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. @Not seasonally adjusted. NA =not available; r =revised; p= preliminary; e =estimated; a=anticipated. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by @, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in 2 3 table 2. Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes for the specified periods. To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502). Percent changes are computed in the usual way but the signs are reversed. See footnote 8 for other "change" qualifications. Average computed with regard to sign. Average computed without regard to sign. 8 6The period varies among the series; however, for most series, the period covered is 1953-67. Quarterly series; figures are placed in the middle month of quarter. Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percentages.9Figures are placed in the last month of quarter. 8 Chart 1A bed FEBRUARY BASIC DATA 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT Leading Indicators I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT 1948 49 50 (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T [Nov.) (Oct.; P T 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 33. 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Leading Indicators-Continued HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT . Index of formation (1957-59=100) 13. incorporations (tnousj goods indus. (bil. dol acts, total value (index: MCD moving 3vg.-5-tftfm Construct 1957-5 plant and equip, (bil. dol. 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page-4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 33 and 34. 10 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Leading Indicators -Continued HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug. P T (May) (Feb.) P T starts (am. rate, MCD moving avg.-5-term . permits, private s (index: 1957-59-100) 1948 49 50 51 52 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 1968 Asterisk (*] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 34. 11 Chart 1A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT -Continued Leading Indicators-Continued Iff. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T , Q (ann. rate, bil. dol. mfg. and trade inventories IB book rate, bil. moving avg.-5-term) , Purchased materials, percent of d&fpanies reporting higher inventories value, m entones of materials and moving avg.-6-term) .ratMtt percent of companies itments 60 days or longer 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( ' ] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 35. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Leading Indicators-Continued BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T . PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS 59 f to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 35 and 36. 13 Chart 1A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Leading Indicators-Continued . PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb. P T axes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 ^ 59 60 61 62 63 64 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk {*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 36. 14 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed FEBRUARY BASIC DATA 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESEIMT-Continued Leading Indicators-Continued SI. MONEY AND CREDIT 1948 49 50 (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( * ] identifies series on 'short list' (May) (Feb.) P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Current data for these series are shown on page 37. 15 Chart 1A BASIC DATA bed FEBRUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Leading Indicators-Continued . MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) [Feb.) P T 100806040- 20J 40-, 6080- 100120140160180J 1.0n ami wwci, (percent- Inverted scale) 1.5- 2.0- 2.5- 3.0J 1948 49 50 51 52 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 16 Bank of St. Louis Federal Reserve 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 Current data for these series are shown on page 37. 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed FEBRUARY BASIC DATA 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Roughly Coincident Indicators fl I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (Nov.) (Oct.) (July) (Aug.) (May) (Feb. P T (luly) (Apr.) P T *41. Employees in nonagri. establishments (millions) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 38. 17 Chart 1A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued bed Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued I, EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued P T (May) (Feb.) (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 345671 2- unemployment j|jj||perceitt 345 - 1 - , married males (per cent-in verted scale) 234- IT. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE *50. GNP in 1958 dollars, 0 (ann. rate, bil. dol. 100,- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk [ ' ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 38 and 39. 18 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued H. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued (Nov.) [Oct.] P T (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.; P T 700650600- *52. Personal income |ann. rate, bi. dd.) 550500180170160150 53. Wages and salaries in mining,— mta rnnctr fann ratp hi fkll 1 140130 120 110- Comprehensive Consumptio *816. Mfg. and trade sales (bil. dol. 4J 49 5U 51 52 H.MW to Reaci Charts \ and 2,' page 4 63 54 55 bb b7 Asterisk I ' j identifies series on 'snt-rt list 5f: !.-.• --.' 61 ?,2 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Current data for thess senes art, shown on page 39. 19 Chart 1A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued IE .FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (July) (Aug.) (Nov.) (Oct.) P T P (May) (Feb.j P T (July) (Apr.; P T T , dur. goods Indus. ffctl, dol.) 2.. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 40. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 20 Bank of St. Louis Federal Reserve 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed FEBRUARY BASIC DATA 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued 21. MONEY AND CREDIT (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (May) (Feb.) (July) (Apr.) P P T T -I.O-i -0.5- 0+0.5J 6-1 5- 4- 3J 6- 5- 4-1 fin 5- 4- 3- 117. Municipal tend yields [percent] 4- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on pagt, 40. 21 Chart 1A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 bed BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Lagging Indicators I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (July) (Apr.) (July) (Aug.) [Nov.) (Oct.) P T P P T (May) (Feb. T P T 1 2 J IH. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT 90-, 80 Investment Expenditures 70 *81. B«s. 60- ., 0 (unit, rate, bit. tfol. new plant 504090807060- expend, (ann. rate, bil. dol. 5040-I JSL. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT 160 -, 140- *71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories (bil. dol.) 120100- 80- 30 65. Book value Of mfrs.' invpntflrifts, finished goods (bil. dol.) 25- 20 15- 10- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'shori list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 41. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Lagging Indicators-Continued I. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (Nov.) (Oct.) P (July) T P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) [Feb.) P T curr. dol.) per ml flf cost per unit of output, . (index: 1957-59-100) 21. MONEY AND CREDIT 6$. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol. ns outstanding, weekly eom. banks (bil. dol. Com. and reporting .32 Bank rates an short-term bus. loans, Q (percent) Ids, residential (percent) 1948 49 50 51 52 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 66 67 1968 Asterisk (+ ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 42. 23 Chart 1A BASIC DATA bed FEBRUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series 3C .PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 120-t ices index: 1957-59-100) ffiff. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS 89. U.S. of payments, Q (bil. del 8 00 b. Official settlements basis +0.5- « o-0.5 -i 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 43. 24 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed FEBRUARY BASIC DATA 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESEIMT-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued 301. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS-Continued (July) (Aug.) (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T Export orders, nonelectrical machinery (index: MCD moving avg,-4-term) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 43. 25 Chart 1A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued bed 'Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued SHE.FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) P T 59 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44. 26 60 61 62 63 64 65 67 1968 Chart 1A bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued g Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued SIH. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 80 706050 4030- 9 8 7 65- 4 3J 3-1 2- 1- 0J 654dol.; WCD moving avg.--6-term] 32- 1J 1 56 In U.S. (bil. moving avg.-6-term) 432- 1J 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44. 27 Chart 1A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 1968 to PRESENT-Continued bed U.S. Series Under Consideration (Hov.) (Oct.] P 1948 49 (July) [Apr.) (July) (Aug.) P T T 50 51 52 53 54 P 55 56 57 58 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 45. 28 (May) (Feb. P T T 59 60 61 62 64 65 66 67 1968 Chart 1A bed FEBRUARY BASIC DATA 1968 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued U.S. Series Under Consideration-Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Apr.) (July) (Aug.) P T P (May) (Feb. T P T saving to disposable personal income, Q i. job openings unfilled to of persons unemployed Bf prod, workers in mfg. (index: 1957-59-100) total rim housing, Q (percent) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 45. 29 Chart IB BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 bed SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS FROM 1948 to PRESENT industrial Production Indexes (1957-59-100) 121. OECD Euiupcan countries 1948 49 50 51 52 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 30 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 Current data for these series are shown on page 46. 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Chart IB bed FEBRUARY BASIC DATA 1968 SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS | FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Consumer Price Indexes (1957-59=100) 1948 49 50 51 52 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Current data for these series are shown on page 47. 31 Chart IB BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 bed SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2: page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 48. 32 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Table 2A bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES Leading Indicators Major Economic Process EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Marginal Employment Adjustments Formation of Business Enterprises Year and month *1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing *30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (Hours) (Thous.) (Per 100 employees) 8 January February March 41.4 B> 41.6 41.5 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing *38. Index of net business formation 13. Number of new business incorporations (Per 100 employees) (1957-59=100) (Number) Revised2 8 Revised 1966 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (Thous.) Revised 570 f£> 600 589 4.9 4.9 5.1 222 219 182 1.2 1.2 1.1 109.1 109.6 109.6 18,087 17,451 17,266 1.2 1.1 1.3 107.6 106.8106.2 17,057 16,644 16,577 Apri 1 May June 41*5 41.4 41.3 522 513 567 4.9 5.1 jt> 5.2 July August September . 41.2 41.4 41.4 542 543 509 4.7 5,1 4.9 230 196 183 1.7 1.1 1.1 104.8 103.9 102.7 16,074 16,343 15,764 October November December 41.3 41.3 41.0 533 530 524 5.1 4.8 4.6 186 194 212 1.1 1.2 1.3 103.3 100*6 101.4 16,233 16.206 16,583 January February March 41.0 40.3 40*4 534 519 497 4.6 4.3 4.1 203 242 256 1,4 1.5 1.7 102.2 103.2" 16,703 15,987 16,244 April May June 40*5 40*3 40,3 474 448 437 4.2 4.6 4.6 263 234 225 1.5 1.4 1.4 104.0 10,5.7' 40,4 40.7 40.8 484 486 480 4.2 4.3 4.3 261 215 209 1.6 1.1 1.3 108.4 110.3 110.2 October November December 1968 40.7 r40,8 40. a 474 476 479 4.7 r4.5 p4.4 209 201 198 1.3 1.2' 110.3 112.9 |>* 113.2 January February March P40.5 P493 (NA) 214 1967 July August September . •»: R> 179 185 186 SD>pi.i • (NA) 103.3 16,760 17,627 17,799 109'. 0 (HA) : 16,300 17,674 18,118 18,000 fj> 18,403 18,168 (NA) April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by BD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by fi> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a*, anticipated; and "NA* not available. 1- Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. 2 See "New features and Changes for This Issue," page v. 33 Table 2A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued bed Leading Indicators— Continued Major Economic Process FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT— Con. Minor Economic Process New Investment Commitments Year and month *6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 94. Index of construction contracts, total value (Bil.dol.) (1957-59=100) *10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (Bil.dol.) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil.dol.) Revised3 1966 4.59 111.9 106.4 112.1 4.79 4.84 4.75 68.28 64.00 65.85 1,356 1,232 1,161 105.3 97.4 84.7 §C>5.09 63.54 63.52 64.40 1,061 1,088 1,020 82.1 75.2 65.3 4.82 4.65 4.60 54.76 64.42 824 956 910 63.4 63.4 67.1 4.54 4.24 4.32 49.09 57.84 56.14 1,079 1,132 1,067 83.1 78.9 81.9 5.' 83 4.44 4.61 4.79 58.27 54.72 62.30 1,099 1,254 1,214 90.7 91.1 97.9 5.72 6.16 5.74 4.85 5.06 4.66 56.72 r5.96 61.66 1,356 1,381 1,415 96.4 99.4 102.3 5.96 5.84 5.85 P5.73 106.9 102.2 24.39 April May . June.. 24.20 24.28 24.59 161 156 147 5.91 5.77 5.57 |E>6*.69 July August September 24.37 23.51 6.10 5.87 25.27 147 139 146 j£>6.28 October November December 24.24 23.03 23.96 139 130 133 5.76 5.52 5.45 5 '.96 22.07 22.33 22.06 126 143 149 5.40 5.34 5.50 5i76 April May June 22.23 23.86 24.26 138 154 164 5.37 5.55 5.82 July August September 23.72 23.73 23.42 149 165 168 October November December 23.38 r23.54 J£>r26,37 g>171 168 166 P25.14 159 .. 1968 January February March .... (1957-59 = 100) 1,403 1,381 1,400 6^34 23. U *29. Index of new private lousing units authorized by local building permits2 62.29 R> 70.42 67.99 5.46 5.71 5.66 23.58 9. Construction 7. New private contracts, com- nonfarm housing mercial and units started1 industrial buildings (Mil. sq.ft. floor space) (Ann. rate, thous.) Revised3 152 157 158 January February March 1967 January February March 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (Bil.dol.) P5.94 4.45 4.^58 4.81 4.91 5.97 * 60.21 60.45 4.61 58.42 1,478 r4.79 r4.92 63.17 64.08 rl,567 rl,228 rll6.7 P4.91 64.51 pl,419 p98.0 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[B^>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "aT, anticipated; and "NA", not available. value (1,833) was reached in October 1963. High value (124.6) was reached in February 1964. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v. 2 3 34 Table 2A bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Leading Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Inventory Investment and Purchasing Year and month 26. Production 20. Change in 37. Purchased ma21. Change in *31. Change in materials, perbook value of terials, percent of business invenbook value of cent of compamanufacturers' companies reporttories after valmanufacturing nies reporting inventories of invenand trade inven- ing higher uation adjustcommitments 60 tories1 materials and tories, total ment, all indusdays or longer© supplies 2 tries (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann.rate,bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent reporting) 1966 January February March +9.9 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries© 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Percent reporting) (Bil.dol.) Revised3 Revised3 +8.4 +11.6 +13.2 49 47 52 +1.1 +1.1 +0.8 68 67 68 74 85 ^ B> 86 +1.27 +1.31 +1.65 Revised3 April May June +14.0 +13.0 +18.1 +16.5 51 53 54 +4.1 +3.5 +3.6 69 70 72 82 75 69 +1,49 +1.36 +1.70 July August September +11. 4 +13.3 +15*5 +9.6 58 57 53 +1.1 +5.3 +3.3 73 73 72 70 73 72 +1.34 +0.64 IO+2.30 S> +13*. 5 +18.2 +18.4 $>+19.8 56 55 55 +1.3 +2.2 +1.6 70 70 64 57 +0.79 -0.21 +0.24 +12.9 +2.2 +3.9 48 45 46 +2.5 -1.0 -0.3 72 67 68 48 51 38 -0.99 -0.30 -1.07 October November . December e> 7573 1967 January February March +7.1 April May June +6! 5 +3.2 +1.3 -4.6 37 40 43 +0.9 -1.0 -1.4 67 66 68 39 36 38 -0.04 +0.96 +1.21 July August September +3.B +3.7 +8.9 -0.7 40 42 44 -0.8 +2.2 -1,0 61 66 61 41 43 44 +0.52 +0.09 +0.47 45 46 54 -0.2 +0.7 p-1.7 62 63 64 50 51 48 4-1.07 r+O.Q6 r+1.13 55 (NA) 64 50 p-1.12 October November December . 1968 January February March r+9.2 +5.7 +12.8 p+15.1 (NA) April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[[£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by lt> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "af, anticipated; and "NA", not available. •"•High value (63) was reached in November 1964. High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961. 2 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v. 35 Table 2A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued bed Leading Indicators— Continued Major Economic Process Minor Economic Process PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Sensitive Commodity Prices Stock Prices Profits and Profit Margins *23. Index of industrial materials prices® *19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks® *16. Corporate profits after taxes 22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries 18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, manufacturing (1957-59 = 100) (1941-43 = 10) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent) (Cents) (1957-59=100) Year and month 1 C ) 1966 120,5 122.9 |£>123.5 93.32 92.69 April May June 121.5 118*3 118.4 91.60 , 86.78 86.06 July August September 118.8 111.7 108.9 85.84 80.65 77.81 October November December 106.3 105.9 105.8 January February March April May June January February March 49^2 JO 131 5 fc>9*8 88.88 49.2 105.1 105.1 105.1 104.4 105.1 104.6 13!? 9.3 B>49U 13^0 9^2 77.13 80.99 81.33 49*. 3 12! 6 9^6 103.9 103.0 103.1 106.8 105.2 102.5 84.4-5 87.36 89.42 46.5 12*. 6 8.* 5 101.5 101.0 100.7 100.1 99.6 99. a 90.96 92.59 91.43 46^5 13L9 8*2 100.8 100.3 99.8 July August September 98.3 98.1 97.8 93.01 94.49 g> 95.81 47a lli? B.I 100.2 99.8 99.2 October November December 97.7 99.1 100.1 95.66 92.66 95,30 (HA) (MA) (NA) r99.5 r99.4 rlOO.3 1968 January February March E K> 105.2 104.5 104.2 1967 99.8 99.3 3 95,04 90. 99 P99.4 April May June julv August September October . November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by [j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA* not available. •"-See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v. Average for February 19, 20, and 21. 3 Average for February 20, 21, and 23. 2 36 FRASER Digitized for Table 2A bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Leading Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process MONEY AND CREDIT Minor Economic Process Year and month Credit Difficulties Flows of Money and Credit 98. Change in money supply and time deposits (Ann. rate, percent) 85. Change in U.S. money supply (Ann. rate, percent) *113. Net change in consumer installment debt2 112. Change in business loans 110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by fin. inst. and life insurance companies 5 5 Revised Revised 1966 RevisecF 14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency bilities of busi- rate, 30 days ness failures 3 and over, total installment loans4 (Mil. dol.) 5 Revised +6.48 +4.56 +9.12 +7.92 +2.88 +6.36 +23.81 +21.85 +22,87 +7.16 +6.46 +7.79 +14.10 +6.24 +8.76 +12.36 +4.80 +7.80 +9.24 -2.16 +2.88 +20.77 +17.76 +15.22 +6.37 +5.92 +6.59 + 8.50 +9.58 +17.70 July August September +3.72 +5.16 +3.36 -4.92 +1.44 +2.88 +12.54 +12.68 +11.40 +6.77 +7.22 +5.70 E>+21.11 +3.28 +0.67 58,004 62.84 159.29 128.77 October November December -0.72 -0.72 +5.52 -2.76 0.00 +2.16 +9.96 +9.66 +6.86 +4.56 +5.33 +3.8$ +5.93 +2.63 +0.14 45,748 128.02 116.90 194.09 +7.68 +H.16 f£>+15.00 -0.72 +8.40 +11.16 +11.05 +12.11 +11.95 +3.36 +2.59 +3.17 +6.01 +0.86 +6.83 60,576 118.61 111.23 108.87 April May June +5.64+13.08 +14.28 -2.76 te>+12.48 +11.64 +11.64 +15.61 +18.11 +2.56 +2.32 +3.50 +9.25 +1.63 +8.16 61,640 110.80 93.00 87.20 July August September +13.44 +12.96 +6.12 +11.52 +8.04 +0.72 +14.11 +22.82 +20.74 +2.70 +4.13 +3.41 +16.46 -9.44 -2.34 68,136 76.85 91.13 91.29 October November December +10.08 +8.64 +5.28 +7.32 +6.00 +2.04 +21.02 +22.07 p+19.61 +3.73 +5.02 +4.60 +5.36 +2.66 +8.39 p72,672 95.81 85.55 192.56 p+3.24 p+7.32 (NA) p+12.53 January February March April May June 70,500 f£> 73,908 ' (Percent) Revisea 111.67 94.59 98.73 106.93 92.41 111.23 l'.73 1.78 l!?6 l'.76 1.79 1*.75 1967 January February March l',82 1.90 1.72 l!65 1.66 l.*74 1968 January February March (NA) 116.62 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values "m indicated by [B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by £>•. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series precettedby an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. value (24.02) was reached in October 1963. High value (+8.94) was reached in April 1965. 2 3 High 4 value (52.86) was reached in August 1963. High value (1.57) was reached in May 1963. 5 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v. Table 2A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Roughly Coincident Indicators Major Economic Process EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Minor Economic Process Year and month Job Vacancies 301. Nonagriculural job openngs unfilled 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (Thous.) (1957-59 = 100) 511. Man-hours n nonagricultural establishments (Ann. rate, bil. man-hours) *41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments 42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey *43. Unemployment rate, total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs1 40. Unemployment rate, married males (Thous.) (Thous.) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Revised2 3 1966 Comprehensive Unemployment Comprehensive Employment Revised 2 Revised Revised2 2 Revised January February March 383 401 425 184 191 |P>2Q1 126.73 127.89 128.71 62,503 62,889 63,296 68,185 68,179 68,192 3.9 3.7 3.8 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 April May June 431 426 424 189 185 184 128.23 128.27 129.52 63,427 63,616 64,069 68,375 68,488 68,772 3.7 3.9 3.8 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 July. August September 428 424 $>438 186 189 189 129.45 130.00 129.86 64,180 64,345 64,394 68,943 69,230 69,264 3.8 3.8 3.8 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 October November December 429 414 404 193 194 193 130.52 131.11 131.13 64,694 65,014 65,251 69,515 69,915 69,828 3.8 3.6 3.7 |£> 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 January February March 392 375 362 189 190 184 132.15 131.57 131.67 65,564 65,692 65,749 70,104 70,187 69,964 3.7 3.7 3.7 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 April May June 353 351 351 181 174 171 131.08 130.89 131.80 65,653 65,639 65,903 70,096 69,822 70,430 3.7 3.9 3.9 2.6 2.7 2.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 July August September 344 350 373 169 180 185 131.62 132.74 132.56 65,939 66,190 66,055 70,631 70,708 70,941 3.9 3.8 4.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 October November December 360 352 345 186 187 190 132.35 |>134.37 134.10 66,243 r66,918 r67,110 71,017 71,166 g>71,36l 4.3 3.8 3.7 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.7 P357 pl,84 P133.21 J>p67,146 71,164 |D>3.5 2.3 B>1.6 1967 1968 January February March April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by ED>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA". not available. 2 exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v. 38 Table 2A bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Production Year and month Comprehensive Income 49. Gross national product in current dollars *50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars *47. Index of industrial production (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (1957-59 = 100) *52. Personal income 53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) Comprehensive Consumption and Trade *816. Manufacturing and trade sales 57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Mil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) * 54. Sales of retail stores (Mil.dol.) 1 Revised 1966 January February March 725.9 645! I 150.7 152.4 153.8 563.7 567.4 572.3 149.4 151.5 153.4 84,679 84,517 86,939 716.0 25,081 25,049 25,536 April May June 736.7 649*. 3 153.9 155.4 156.5 574.7 576.1 581.1 154.0 155.0 156.8 85,434 85,365 86,917 722^6 24,949 24,475 25,394 748,8 654-. 8 157.2 157.8 158.1 584.7 589.1 594.1 156.9 158.5 159.5 86,611 86,939 86,734 737^4 25,362 25,572 25,703 762.1 661 !i 159.4 159.1 159.5 597.5 602.1 605.0 160.5 161.3 162.1 86,983 86,528 87,690 743.6 25,550 25,610 25,368 January February March 766 ."3 660." 7 158.2 156.6 156.4 610.4 612.6 615.6 163.3 162.4 162.7 87,182 86,138 87,255 759^2 25,687 25,470 25,739 April May June 775.1 664,7 156.5 155.6 155.6 616.5 618.2 622.6 162.2 161.5 162.4 86,656 87,358 88,368 774^6 25,918 25,897 26,544 July August September 791.2 672! 6 156.6 158.1 . 156.8 627.0 631.6 634.4 163.4 165.2 165.5 88,759 89,067 88,633 787.4 26,444 26,422 26,732 October November December jj£>r807*.3 j£>r679*.6 r!56.9 r!59.5 @>rl6l.8 635.9 642.4 r649.3 165.2 168.4 r!70.4 87,807 90,235 |D>P92,772 |> ,r798!l 26,089 r 26, 411 r 26, 402 pl6l.2 |>P651.2 |C> p!70.9 (NA) July August September -.. October November December 1967 1968 January February March j>p27,176 April May June July August. September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated b y ® . Current high values are indicated by [£>•; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by 0>> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v. 39 Table 2A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 bed LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Roughly Coincident Indicators— Continued Major Economic Process FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Minor Economic Process Backlog of Investment Commitments Comprehensive Wholesale Prices Year and month 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable joods indus:ries 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Bil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) 55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities© 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods ® (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100) MONEY AND CREDIT Bank Reserves Money Market Interest Rates 93. Free reserves © 114. Treasury bill rate® 116. Corporate bond yields © (Mil.dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 115. Treasury 117. Municipal bond yields© bond yields® (Percent) (Percent) 1966 January February March.. 63.80 65.11 66.76 April May June . . 68.25 69.61 71.31 July August September 72.65 73.29 75.59 October November December 76.33 76.17 76.42 19 '.33 103.5 103.8 104.0 104.4 104.9 105.0 -44 -107 -246 4.60 4.67 4.63 4.93 5.09 5.33 4.43 4.61 4.63 3.52 3.64 3.72 20.56 104.3 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.5 105.6 -268 -352 -352 4.61 4.64 4.54 5.38 5.55 5.67 4.55 4.57 4.63 3.56 3.65 3.77 20.77 105.2 105.2 105.2 106.0 106.4 106.4 -362 -390 -368 4.86 4.93 5.36 5.81 6.04 6.14 4.75 4.80 4.79 3.95 4.12 4.12 20.72 105.3 105.5 105.5 106.3 106.2 106.2 B>-431 -222 -165 g> 5.39 5.34 5.01 6.04 6.11 5.98 4.70 4.74 4.65 3.94 3.86 3.86 20.40 105.8 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.4 106.3 -16 -4 4-236 4.76 4.55 4.29 5.53 5.35 5.55 4.40 4.47 4.45 3.54 3.52 3.55 20.32 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.3 106.6 +175 +269 +297 3.85 3.64 3.48 5.59 5.90 6.06 4.51 4.76 4.86 3.60 3.89 3.96 r2o!<S3 106.0 106.3 106.5 106.8 106.8 107.1 +272 +298 +268 4.31 4.28 4.45 6.06 6.30 6.33 4.86 4.95 4.99 4.02 3.99 4.12 106.8 107.1 107.4 107.1 107.2 107.6 +160 +270 14-107 4.59 4.76 5.01 6.53 6.87 B>6.93 5.19 B>5.44 5.36 4.30 4.34 |^>4.43 10*107.7 g> 108.1 p+138 5.08 6,57 5.18 4.29 .. . 1967 January February March 75.4-3 75.13 74.06 April May June 74.02 74.97 76.18 July August September 76.71 76.80 77.27 October November December 78.34 r78.40 U>r79.53 ft>p20.77 1968 January February March p78.41 April ... Mav June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by [H>>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by G>*. Series numbers are tor identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" not available. 40FRASER Digitized for Table 2A bed FEBRUARY BASIC DATA 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Lagging Indicators Major Economic Process EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Long-Duration Unemployment Investment Expenditures Year INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Inventories *502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over *61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total 505. Machinery and equipment sales dnd business construction expenditures (Percent) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) *71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value 65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value and month 1966 (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) Revised1 1 1 Revised Revised January February March 0.8 0.8 0.8 58.00 65.13 63.91 66.58 121.30 122.26 123.36 23.20 23.37 23.57 April 60.10 June 0,3 0,7 0.6 65.20 65.30 66.18 124.45 125.95 127.33 23.60 23.84 23.92 July August September 0.6 0.6 0.6 61.25 68.41 68.19 68.68 128.43 129.73 130.53 24.24 24.39 24.59 October November December 0.7 8>62!s6 69.13 68.12 68.56 132.05 133.58 135.23 24.77 25.27 25.71 May a, 6 0.6 1967 January February March 0.6 0.6 0.6 61^65 70.44 69.50 68.85 136,30 136.49 136.82 26,13 26,40 26,58 Apri 1 61 '.50 June 0.6 0.6 0.6 66.79 67.56 68.30 137.08 137.19 136.80 26.87 27.02 26.76 July August September 0.6 0.6 0.6 60*. 90 70.20 69.75 70.52 137.11 137.85 137.79 26.92 27.04 26.98 October November December 0.6 0.6 0.6 a62.05 68.95 r69.97 P72.17 138.27 139.33 ft> pl40.59 26.92 27.15 H> P27.50 (HA) (HA) May §&> 1968 January February March §£> 0.6 (HA) a65]o5 April May June Julv August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by[j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by [R>> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "pn, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA r not available. •"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue.," page v. 41 Table 2A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued bed Lagging Indicators—Continued Major Economic Process PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Minor Economic Process Unit Labor Costs Year and month MONEY AND CREDIT Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages Outstanding Debt 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product (1958 dol.), nonfinancial corporations *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 66. Consumer installment debt *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (u;1 118. Mortgage yields, residential @ (Dollars) (1957-59 = 100) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 2 ( ) 1966 January February . March 0.670 April May June 0.679 July August September 0.687 October November December 0.693 99.3 99.8 99.9 67,920 68,458 69,107 53,255 53,747 54,522 100.7 100.4101.0 69,638 70,131 70,680 55,118 56,134 57,874 100.8 101.8 102.1 71,244 71,846 72,321 59,380 59,014 59,381 102.3 103.1 103.0 72,701 73, U5 73,466 59,911 60,042 59,763 5^55 5.70 (NA) 6.00 5*. 82 (NA) 6.32 6.45 6*. 30 6.51 6.58 6.63 £>6'.31 (NA) 6.81 6.77 1967 January February March 0.711 10 A. 8 105.3 105.6 73,746 73,962 74,226 60,754 60,525 61,167 6.13 6.62 6.46 6.35 April May June 0.713 105.4 106.0 106.8 74,439 74,632 74,924 62,407 61,898 63,341 5*.95 6.29 6.44 6.51 §£> 0.722 106.6 107.0 108.0 75,149 75,493 75 , 777 64,352 62,944 63,309 5*95 6.53 6.60 6.63 63,592 63,797 64, 845 5*.% 6.65 6.77 6.81 July August September ... October November December (HA) r!07,6 107.8 r!07.3 76,088 76,506 §£>• 76,889 1968 January February March |>pl08.8 (HA) 6t>p65,5l8 ft> 6.81 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by [j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by §£>• . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. """Prior to 1967, data are based on 19 cities and refer to the last month of the quarter. 2 42 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v. Table 2A bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Other Selected U.S. Series Major Economic Process PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Retail Prices Foreign Trade and Payments 81. Index of consumer prices @ Year and month 89. Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-) in U.S. balance of payments a. Liquidity balance basis (1957-59 = 100) (Mil.dol.) b. Official settlements basis (Mil.dol.) 88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) 86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total 861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicles and parts © 862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery 87. General imports, total (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) (1957-59 = 100) (Mil.dol.) Revised1 1966 January February . . March 111.0 111.6 112.0 -651 -443 +324.0 +366.1 +501.2 2,271.6 2,371.2 2,568.9 852 849 904 237 201 227 1,947.6 2,005.1 2,067.7 April May June 112.5 112.6 112.9 -122 -175 +2^9.9 +348.3 +354.4 2,358.8 2,410.8 2,489.4 749 976 1,078 195 217 217 2,108.9 2,062.5 2,135.0 July August September 113.3 113.8 1H.1 -165 +861 +250.7 +339.0 +234.4 2,455.4 2,451.6 2,534.2 805 826 1,059 201 199 200 2,204.7 2,112.6 2,299.6 October November December 1U. 5 -419 -18 +319.7 +299.8 +184.6 2,580.7 2,486.1 2,415.8 865 785 1,200 240 235 225 2,261.0 2,186.3 2,231.2 in. 6 in. 7 1967 January February March 1H.7 in. 8 r-536 r-1,822 +360.4 +378.1 +348.5 2,615.9 2,607.3 2,551.4 891 833 905 234 196 252 2,255.5 2,229.2 2,202.9 April May June 115.3 115.6 116.0 r-556 r-837 U27.8 +407.0 +349.2 2,653.8 2,546.9 2,576.5 772 1,029 1,043 215 220 218 2,226.0 2,139.9 2,227.3 July August September 116.5 116.9 117.1 r-648 r+465 +376.1 +422.8 +434.2 2,584.1 2,547.9 2,642.7 875 841 905 219 230 231 2,208.0 2,125.1 2,208.5 October November December 1968 117.5 117.8 118.2 p-1,832 p-1,204 +190.8 +316.5 +79.1 2,392.3 2,692.2 2,603.9 796 r878 pi, 086 258 234 p255 2,201.5 2,375.7 2,524.8 +169.3 2,784.7 (NA) (NA) 2,615.4 January February March 115.0 (NA) April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e". estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v. 43 Table 2A BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued bed Other Selected U.S. Series— Continued Major Economic Process FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Minor Economic Process Federal Government Activities 84. Federal 95. Federal cash surplus (+) surplus (+) I or deficit (-), or deficit (-) national income and product account (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) bil.dol.) Year and month 82. Federal 83. Federal cash receipts cash payments to the public from the public1 (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 101. National defense purchases, current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1966 91. Defense Department obligations, total 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (Mil do!.) (Mi Idol.) Revised* Revised* 99. New orders, defense 3roducts industries (Bil.dol.) 92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions (Mil. dol.) Revised2 January February March +2,2 -12." 8 133*6 146 .'4 55!l 5,100 5,179 5,879 1,639 1,736 1,904 3.40 3.04 3.38 2,940 2,850 2,913 April May June +3.2 +5*. 6 148.4 143! 4 58.4 6,444 5,447 7,084 2,109 1,620 2,415 3,30 2.91 3.68 3,359 3,061 3,724 July August September -0.7 -9.9 149.0 158!<9 63.0 4,998 7,215 6,579 1,753 2,251 1,866 3.50 3.16 4,67 4,016 3,170 3,530 October November December -3,3 -0,9 153^5 154 .'4 65^6 6,059 5,989 6,023 1,931 1,723 1,937 3.31 2.73 3.36 3,396 3,252 3,501 -11.9 +1,7 156! 7 155.*Q 7o!2 6,518 6,595 6,343 2,296 2,140 1,903 2.85 3.33 3.24 3,338 3,849 2,984 April May June -14." 7 +1*6 154.'l 152,5 72.5 6,211 7,732 6,891 1,754 2,480 2,290 3.27 3.86 4.20 2,920 4,121 3,626 July August September -13l 2 -19! 5 154*0 173.5 73! 3 5,928 7,003 7,479 1,633 1,925 2,958 3.64 2,84 3.71 3,610 3,686 3,665 October November December (NA) -18.0 155.2 173.2 r74.2 7,449 6,565 6,331 2,735 2,173 1,846 4.09 r3.06 r3.98 3,665 3,308 3,479 (NA) (NA) P3.39 (HA) 1967 January . February March 1968 January February March . ... April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by (u). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. -"•Beginning with 2d quarter 1966, data reflect graduated withholding of personal income taxes and change in schedule for depositing withheld and OASI taxes. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v. 44FRASER Digitized for Table 2A bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued U.S. Series Under Consideration Major Economic Process UNCLASSIFIED INDICATORS Minor Economic Process Unclassified Indicators Year and month 850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Percent) (Ratio) (Ratio) (1957-59 = 100) (Ratio) 1 1 Revised 1966 855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled to persons unemployed (Ratio) Revised 856. Ratio, average earnings of production workers in manufacturing to consumer prices (1957-59 = 100) Revised1 857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing® (Percent) Reviser!1 January February March 90 ".5 1.4-3 1.45 1.42 3.21 3.28 3.25 117.9 119.1 119.7 0.053 0.13C 0.143 0.149 113.4 113.7 113.2 7.5 April May June 90*.9 1.46 1.48 1.46 3.37 3.40 3.50 119.8 121.5 123.2 0.057 0.154 0,145 0.146 113.5 113.7 113.7 6\B 90.6 1.48 1.49 1.50 3.49 3.54 3.64 124.8 125.9 126.4 0.057 0.148 0.146 0.153 113.8 133.8 114.3 6.S 90.0 1.52 1.54 1.54 3.67 3.67 3.62 125.4 125.9 126.1 0.066 0.149 0.152 0.141 114.1 114.0 113.9 7.0 January February March p87.1 1.56 1.58 1.57 3.64 3.68 3.58 126.3 127.7 125.8 0.073 0.138 0.131 0.127 114.3 115.1 114.8 6.*6 April May June p84.9 1.58 1.57 1.55 3.73 3.69 3.74 124.7 124.7 123.4 0.067 0.123 0.119 0.115 114.9 114.9 115.2 6.*3 July August September p84.1 1.54 1.55 1.55 3.71 3.63 3.78 122.9 121.5 122.3 0.070 0.114 0.119 0.118 115.2 115.6 115,5 6^4 October November December p84.3 1.57 1.54 pi. 52 r3.88 r3.7Q r3.54 rl!9.6 r!22.5 r!20.2 0.075 0.108 0.118 0.119 115.3 115.8 116.2 (NA) p3:34 p!21.1 July August September . .. October November December 1967 (NA) 1968 January . February March pO.130 (NA) .. . April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v. 45 Table 2B BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 bed LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Major Economic Process INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES Minor Economic Process Industrial Production Indexes Year and month 123. Canada, index of industrial production 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production 121. OECD,1 European countries, index of industrial production 126. France, index of industrial production 125. West Germany, index of industrial production 128. Japan, in127. Italy, index dex of industrial of industrial production production (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 =100) 47. United States, index of industrial production 1966 January . February March 151 152 154 161 163 163 132 131 134 r!53 r!53 r!56 147 150 152 158 157 161 252 251 257 rl88 r!88 April May June 154 155 156 164 163 163 132 130 130 r!55 r!54 r!56 151 151 154 160 159 161 261 265 267 rl88 r!95 r!94 July August September 157 158 158 163 164 166 132 131 130 155 r!54 156 155 155 156 158 154 156 273 277 279 r!95 r!96 r201 October . November December 159 159 160 167 168 167 128 127 129 r!55 r!55 r!56 155 156 156 154 154 153 285 291 299 r!99 r200 January February March 158 157 156 166 166 166 129 129 129 r!55 r!55 155 156 154 156 151 150 152 301 300 309 r207 r211 r209 April . May June 156 156 156 168 167 168 130 128 129 155 154 r!56 153 152 156 150 151 151 312 315 323 r212 r211 r211 July August September 157 158 157 169 170 170 129 129 128 156 r!55 157 156 156 160 156 152 156 323 327 337 r!98 r210 October November December 157 169 p!73 (NA) 128 p!30 (NA) 158 rl60 pl60 160 160 r!59 160 (NA) P347 pl6l pl68 (NA) 1968 January February March pl6l (NA) (NA) r!91 204 1967 162 339 210 r215 p215 (NA) April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. •^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 46FRASER Digitized for Table 2B bed BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued Major Economic Process CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES Minor Economic Process Consumer Price Indexes 81. United States, 133. Canada, index of consumer index of consumer prices @ prices® Year and month (1957-59=100) (1957-59 = 100) 111 112 112 113 114 114 124 124 125 137 137 138 112 113 113 115 115 116 126 127 127 113 114 116 116 1966 January February March April May June - July August September . 132. United King- 136. France, index of consumer dom, index of consumer prices® prices ® in 114 . 135. West Germany, 138. Japan, index index of consumer of consumer prices © prices® 137. Italy, index of consumer prices® (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100) 120 121 121 146 . 147. 148 = 133 133 133 138 139 138 122 122 122 150 148. 149 133 134 134 117 127 127 127 139 139 139 122 122 122 149 148 150 134 134 134 117 117 117 128 128 129 140 140 140 122 122 151 150 151 134 135 136 (1957-59- 100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100) October November December 1967 January . ... February March 115 115 115 117 117 118 129 129 129 141 141 142 123 123 123 April .. . . May June 115 116 116 119 119 120 130 130 130 142 142 142 124 124 124. 154: 153 J 152: 138 138 139 July . . . August September 116 117 117 121 121 121 ' 130 130 129 142 143 143 124 123 123 152 153 156 139 139 140 October November December 1968 January February March 118 118 US 121 121 122 129 131 pl31 144 145 PH5 123 pl23 (NA) 159 159 pl60 140 140 p!40 (HA) pl23 (NA) (NA) (MA) ' (NA) April Mav June 115 115 - 123 153 154: 154 ; 137 138 138 : . . . July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 47 Table 2B BASIC DATA FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued Major Economic Process STOCK PRICE INDEXES Minor Economic Process Stock Price Indexes 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks ® 143. Canada, index of stock prices® 142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices© 146. France, index of stock prices ® (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59-100) January February March 189 188 180 192 191 186 173 April May June 186 176 174 190 182 July.. August September Year and month 145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index of stock prices ® index of stock prices® (1957-59 = 100) (1957-59=100) Jbccf 147. Italy, index of stock prices® (1957-59 = 100) 1966 177 180 178 223 230 174 127 123 118 241 147 153 156 182 173 179 181 114 110 110 175 168 159 240 243 236 144 143 143 174 163 158 180 171 162 173 154 152 108 108 102 149 150 154 231 230 226 146 147 145 October November December 156 164 165 158 162 166 150 147 151 101 107 103 151 147 148 224 221 218 149 147 144 1967 January February March 171 177 181 175 180 182 157 156 159 99 103 98 148 156 159 223 229 228 142 141 127 April . May June 184 188 185 185 186 186 167 171 172 96 99 98 158 155 154 223 231 231 129 132 130 July August September 189 192 194 189 194 198 176 177 187 94 99 110 156 175 182 231 • 215 209 129 133 139 October November December 194 188 193 192 188 189 196 203 200 109 106 103 182 192 194 213 206 198 143 139 135 193 pi 84 189 202 rpl08 pl80 p211 pl!2 rp210 p2ll p203 p207 p!34 p!31 1968 January February March 178 . April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Digitized for 48 FRASER Section TWO ANALYTICAL MEASURES charts and tables DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS Average workweek—21 industries New orders—36 industries Capital appropriations—17 industries Profits—1,000 corporations Stock prices—77 industries Industrial materials prices—73 materials State unemployment claims—47 areas Nonagricultural employment—30 industries Production—24 industries Wholesale prices—22 industries Retail sales—23 types of stores Net sales—800 companies New orders—400 companies Carloadings—79 commodity groups Plant and equipment expenditures—78 industries BASIC DATA AND DIRiCTIONS Of CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES Chart 2 bed FEBRUARY ANALYTICAL MEASURES 1968 DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT Leading Indexes (July) (Aug.) (Nov.) (Oct.) P T P (May) (Feb. P T (July) (Apr.) P T T Percent 9-mo. span rod. wfers., mfg.-21 Indus 6. New orders, dur. goods indus.-36 Indus capital appropri 3-Q span*— 1-Q span B of NY, percent 1,000 nifg. corp. (1-Q span) Industrial prices-13 indus. mtls , Stale 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 insur.-47 areas (inverted) 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. 51 Chart 2 ANALYTICAL MEASURES FEBRUARY 1968 bed DIFFUSION 'NDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued Roughly Coincident Indexes (July) (Apr.) (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.] P T P (May) (Feb. T P ~ 22 ifflhis. 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Current data for these series are shown on page 56. 52for FRASER Digitized T Percent span— 1-mo. span 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 Chart 2 bed FEBRUARY ANALYTICAL MEASURES 1968 DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued g Actual and Anticipated Indexes (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.; P T (May) (Feb. P T Percent D48. Change in total carloadings imillions OT cars-^-u span] 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1968 See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 57. 53 Table 3 ANALYTICAL MEASURES FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES bed Leading Indexes Year and month Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing (21 industries) 1-month span D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (36 industries) 1-month span 9-month span 9-month span Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations, NICB (17 industries) 1-quarter span 3-quarter span 1966 January , February March 50.0 81.0 42.9 81.0 85.7 38.1 30.6 50.0 84.7 75.0 75.0 66.7 65 76 April May June 35.7 54.8 33.3 50.0 45.2 40.5 41.7 50.0 51.4 72.2 58.3 59.7 62 47 July August September 19.0 66.7 64.3 23.8 0.0 9.5 50.0 59.7 37.5 55.6 44.4 41.7 29 47 October November December 35.7 38.1 9.5 9.5 14.3 14.3 50.0 44.4 55.6 36.1 31.9 27.8 59 35 1967 January February March 69.0 4.8 61.9 9.5 9.5 9.5 31.9 38.9 55.6 38.9 41.7 45.8 53 47 April May June 47.6 26.2 52.4 19.0 42.9 28.6 50.0 58.3 61.1 X 47.1 X 66.7 53 r41 July August September 64.3 73.8 71.4 76.2 61.9 P42.9 52.8 65.3 1 38.2 53 P 53 October November December 28.6 r78.6 r33.3 1968 January February March p23.8 f X 55.9 1*64. 7 r75.0 1 58.8 X r83.3 r91.7 p81.9 P41 P55.6 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. -"-Based on 34 industries. 54FRASER Digitized for bed Table 3 FEBRUARY ANALYTICAL MEASURES 1968 LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued Leading Indexes-Continued D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices (about 1,000 corporastocks (77 industries)© -1 (13 industrial materials) tions) Year and month 1-quarter span 9- month span 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 9-month span Revised2 1966 January February March 1-month span D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas) , 59 74,0 48.7 14.3 51.9 43.5 37,7 61.5 76.9 46.2 53.8 61.5 61.5 3.3.3 44.7 83,0 91.5 74.5 44.7 April May June 59 63.6 3.9 23.4 22.1 11.7 6.5 30.8 42.3 46.2 53.8 30.8 15.4 53.2 45.7 57.4 68.1 76.6 78.7 July August September 50 38.3 6.5 3.9 9.7 22.1 20.1 61.5 26.9 0.0 7.7 7.7 7.7 17.0 72.3 80.9 80.9 34.0 34.0 October November December 1967 January February March 54 25.3 88.3 59.7 47.4 58.4 66.2 19.2 30.8 57.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.2 46.8 27.7 23.4 17.0 46.8 48 90.9 92.2 61.0 85.7 90.3 97.4 46.2 53.8 23.1 0.0 15.4 26.9 55.3 17.0 46.8 27.7 8.5 8.5 April May June 46 76.0 74.0 51.3 93.4 92.1 86.2 23.1 61.5 69.2 30.8 23.1 23.1 55.3 54.3 55.3 31.9 44.7 29.8 July August September 52 81.6 77.6 57.2 68.4 65.8 71.1 30.8 53.8 19.2 23.1 30.8 46.2 34.0 72.3 60.6 78.7 78.7 66.0 October November December P 59 38. 5 38.3 74.5 46.8 32.2 7.9 71.1 46.2 46.2 61.5 3 1968 January February March 64.5 3 46.2 38. 5 25.5 April May June July August September . October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. 1 Based on 77 components through June 1967 and on 76 components thereafter. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v. 3 Average for February 19, 20, and 21. 2 55 Table 3 ANALYTICAL MEASURES FEBRUARY 1968 LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued bed Roughly Coincident Indexes Year and month D41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural establishments (30 industries) D47. Index of industrial production (24 industries) D58. Index of wholesale prices (22 manufacturing industries) @ D54. Sales of retail stores (23 types of stores) 1-month span 9-month span 6-month span 1- mo nth span 6-month span 70.8 70.8 91.7 95.8 91.7 79.2 79.5 75.0 72.7 88.6 95.5 93.2 76.1 65.2 '60.9 82.6 84.8 78.3 81.7 81.7 73.3 72.9 62.5 75.0 75.0 79.2 66.7 70.5 86.4 75.0 95.5 95.5 86.4 43.5 30.4 95.7 78.3 82.6 78.3 56.7 78.3 35,0 76.7 73.3 73.3 50.0 75.0 43.8 75.0 66.7 66.7 72.7 54.5 47.7 72.7 72.7 63.6 47.8 47,8 60.9 76.1 65.2 82.6 October November December 81.7 76.7 70,0 85.0 65.0 65.0 72.9 56.2 50.0 66.7 45.8 33.3 63.6 63.6 54.5 63.6 72.7 72.7 43.5 69.6 ' 41.3 87.0 78.3 82.6 1967 January February March 71.7 43.3 43.3 55.0 41.7 43.3 25.0 25.0 39.6 41.7 29.2 25.0 77.3 72.7 56.8 63.6 68.2 65.9 87.0 39.1 43.5 69.6 91.3 95.7 April May June 40,0 41.7 71.7 38.3 41.7 36.7 43.8 25.0 56.2 33.3 43.8 47.9 47.7 56.8 50.0 63.6 63.6 63.6 60.9 34.8 82.6 87.0 91.3 56.5 July August September 53.3 58.3 35.0 48.3 75.0 r71.7 58.3 66.7 41.7 58.3 66.7 r79.2 63.6 65.9 75.0 72.7 81.8 81.8 43,5 60.9 76.1 r82.6 r73.9 P 67.A October November December 75.0 r91.7 r80.0 P73.3 r56.2 r87.5 r83.3 p77.1 72.7 77.3 90.9 81.8 37.0 r67.4 r39.1 1968 January February March P55.0 1-month span 6-month span 1966 January * February March 81.7 88.3 95.0 95.0 91.7 83.3 April May June 80.0 75.0 93.3 July August September 1-month span P29.2 90.9 p65.2 April May June July August September October November December NOTE' Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table 4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Digitized for56 FRASER Table 3 bed FEBRUARY ANALYTICAL MEASURES 1968 LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued Actual and Anticipated Indexes D35. Net sales, manufactures D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) © (800 companies) ® Year and month 4-quarter span Actual 1966 January February March D48. Freight carloadings(19 manufactured commodity groups) ® D61. New plant and equipment expenditures (18 industries) 4-quarter span 1-quarter span 4-quarter span Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated Change in total (000) .. April May June July August September October November December 1967 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1968 January February March *S7 *9l *85 *89 57^9 84.. 2 *84 m *82 *83 52^6 78.9 -fl 72 *84 *68 *82 42*1 78.9 -50 72 ,84 *67 "so (HA) 52.6 -91 70 *82 '65 *78 7^9 (MA) "H (HA) *78 73^7 'ao 73*7 *82 Actual Anticipated $3*3 62,5 83,3 71.9 55,6 37.5 75.0 65.6 55.6 50.0 30.6 41*7 33.3 U»4 . (HA) 50.0 +21 -131 -91 p63.9 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. 57 Table 4 ANALYTICAL MEASURES bed FEBRUARY 1968 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS Basic Data and Direction of Change 1968 1967 Diffusion index components July June September August October Novemberr Januaryp December Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURINGx (Average weekly hours) All manufacturing industries • 0 Durable goods industries: Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries 0 4 4 o 4 _ Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products + 4 _ 4 0 4 0 4 -J- 40.3 4 40.4 4 (52) (64) 41.2 + 4.0.1 4-0.3 41.3 O 4,0 6 4 4,1 2 4 42.0 + 40.0 4 41.2 + 41.0 o 39.4 41.8 39.9 40.2 41.3 40 9 41 3 42.1 40.3 41.4 41.0 39.2 41.0 39.0 40.4 35.7 42.6 4 + 40.6 38.4 40.6 35.9 42.7 38.3 0 41.3 + 42 6 + 41.2 37.9 4 38.3 41.5 42 8 40.6 38.4 O __ 4 + 4 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 _ 0 4 4 40.8 40.7 (74) (71) (29) 41.9 4 39.7 4 40.2 4 41.6 4 41.0 o 41.5 4 42.2 4 40.4 42.5 4 41.2 O 39.4 4 42.4 40.5 o 40.7 42.0 41.0 4 41.8 42.7 40.2 4 42.7 41.2 39.5 _ 41.7 40.5 40.4 41.8 41.3 41.4 42.3 40.5 41.5 41.1 39.4 40.8 38.9 41.0 35.8 42.6 4 _ 41.0 38.0 41.4 36.3 42.8 38.3 41.5 43.1 42.0 38.3 0 40.7 39.0 41.3 35.8 42.8 38.0 41.5 43.0 41.9 38.7 40.7 4 4 4 4 O 4 38.3 41.5 42.4 41.9 38.9 + _ _ O O 4 O 4 40,8 0 (79) 4 4 4 4 4 O 4 4 O 4 4 _ 4 4 O 4 4 4 4 41.9 41.? _ 40.5 4 42.1 41.6 O 41.4 4 42.4 0 40.6 39.8 4 41.1 4 39.6 40.8 38.8 41.5 36.3 42.8 38.2 41.9 43.1 41.8 39.5 40.8 40.5 (33) (24) r41.7 r40.4 -. r40.7 41.6 _ r41.6 r41.6 4 r42.4 r40.4 r42.6 41.2 39.4 41.5 39.7 40.5 40.9 41.4 41,9 42.1 40.5 43.1 41.0 39.3 4 4 _ _ 40.7 _ 4 __ 4 _ r36.8 r41.7 4 — 36.2 __ r43.0 _ r38.0 r41.7 r42.0 r41.3 r38.4 40.5 38.1 41.1 34.9 42.6 37.7 41.4 43.0 41.2 37.6 _ 4 D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 (Mi 11 ions of dollars) All durable goods industries 4 23,715 24,263 (61) Primary metals Blast furnaces steel mills Nonferrous metals Iron and steel foundries Other primary metals. Fabricated metal products Metal cans, barrels, and drums Hardware, structural metal and wire products Other fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Steam engines and turbines*. Internal combustion engines* Construction, mining, and material handling*. Metalworking machinery* Miscellaneous equipment* Machine shops. Special industry machinery* General industrial machinery* Office and store machines* Service industry machinery* _ 3,591 1,886 4 (53) 3,646 4 1,994 _ 3,470 1,794 ... _ 4 2,108- 1,979 2,254 ... ... 4 3,590 427 571 226 -\ +r 4 3,564 429 598 217 3,945 455 ... 668 327 + ... -J _ 4 ... 2,246 2,009 4 4 ... 4 3,679 309 ... 681 203 •I r ... 3,588 302 _j_ 4 - - 4 622 240 ... 4 4 4 ?QQ 302 ~ ; 298 + 4 4 4 4 4 + r26,371 _ 25,144 (75) 3,783 2,091 + ... 4 2,334 ... 4 4 4 3,840 :) 4 4 385 ... 712223 4 4 4 + 269 4 4 23, 545 2 (65) r4,108 p2,383 (56) 4 4 ... 4 _ . . .- 4 4 3,467 1,905 4 _ - 4 4 3,612 1,971 ... 4 + 4 23,381 2 (56) 4 4 -\ +} _ 23,416 2 (38) 23,726 (65) ... A -J _ 4 4 4 4 292 313 4 4,135 (NA) ... 4 p2,774 ... p3,885 p295 ... p646 p244 (NA) 4 _ ... 4 ... (NA) ;} (NA) _ 4 4 4 (NA) (NA) ... 4 ... p282 4 (NA) 4 4 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. •^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency. 2 Based on 34 components. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 58 Bank of St. Louis Federal Reserve Table 4 bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES FEBRUARY 1968 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued 1968 1967 Diffusion index components June July August October September November December January D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 -Continued (Mi II ions of dollars) Electrical machinery Electrical transmission, distr. equipment* Electrical industrial apparatus* Household appliances Radio and TV Communication equipment t Electronic components. flthpr plprtriral marhinpn/* 3,579 3,455 j +\ +/ 4 4 883 _ + 733 4 + 44 \- 4- *vtnnp rl/iv anrl 0I/K9 total 4 Other durable goods, total 4 +} r722 «.•/ r644 HA 4 4 /» T , \ (NA) +; + _ (NA) 4- p6,799 r7,117 r5,673 ?A WA 4 4- •f 4- 4- 44- 44- 4- 4 _ _ 6,241 ^A NA P74-9 4+ 4- 6,019 ft A 4- (NA) -*} 4- 4- 764 4 5,950 p714- 4- 4- 4 o 4 4 4 659 + ^} 999 4 p3,631 r3,315 4 804 + + 4 3,473 4" 4 + 889 4- 4 4 4 638 794- 4 Motor vehicle assembly operations Complete aircraft! Aircraft partsf Shipbuilding and railroad equipment* Other transportation equipment 3,554, j> 4 6,697 7,327 Transportation equipment 3,64,0 -? 733 +t 4 4- + 4- 4- 44. 4* 4. + 4- ... 4- 95.30 95.04 (71) (64) + 4 4 4 4 4 4 _ D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2 (1941-43 = 10) Index of 500 stock prices Coal, bituminous Food composite Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers) Textile products Paper Publishing 91.43 (51) + 4- 93.01 4 4+ 4-f 4 (82) 94.49 (78) 4 95.81 95.66 (57) (32) 4 92.66 (8) 4 4 4 4 4 4+ 4 4 4 4 4 44 4 4 "' Chemicals Drugs Oil composite Building materials composite Steel Metal fabricating Machinery composite Office and business equipment Electric household appliances Electronics Automobiles Radio and television broadcasters Telephone companies Electric companies Natural gas distributors Retail stores composite Life insurance + + 9 t 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 ... 4 4 -j. 4 o 4 4 4 4 -j. -j- . . ., 4 _l_ 4. _l_ 4 1 i 4 4 ... 4 + 4 4. -j. + 4 _^_ ( 4- 4 4 4 4 -f _j- I 4. j 4 + 4 j ! 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 -f- 4 _l_ _l_ i 4 -f. 4 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. f These industries plus ordnance comprise series 99. Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4. 3 Based on 76 components "beginning with July 1967. x 59 Table 4 ANALYTICAL MEASURES bed FEBRUARY 1968 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued 1967 1968 Diffusion index components June July August September October November February l January December D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2 Industrial materials price index (1957-59=100) 99,8 «, 4. 98.3 ~ 98,1 -. 97. a - 97.7 4 99.1 4 100.1 -. ! 99.8 _ 99.3 (Ooflars) (46) (46} (54) (69) (19) (31) .452 .366 4 .382 4 ,368 ,385 4 ,385 ,061 .062 .062 .065 4- - .065 ,064 28.756 4- 29.774 29,016 27,195 4- 30-174 27,451 1.510 1,486 •i1.456 Hh ' 1.550 1.557 1,528 .140 .140 .139 ,141 .141 4.142 .133 ,135 ,134 4. .139 ,145 .145 * 4 4. 444,237 ,254 .239 ,231 .223 . .219 ,192 4* .193 .193 ,193 4,193 ,194 1.588 4- 1.591 -1.646 1.677 1.523 1,603 .152 4.159 ,152 .152 4.166 .153 44 10,938 10,971 o 10,971 10.721 4> 10.872 10.949 .171 .200 .185 ,195 ,209 .214 .046 .050 ,052 .050 4.049 .051 Percent rising of 73 components Copper scrap (Ib.) Lead scrap (Ib.) Steel scrap (ton) Tin (Ib.) Zinc(lb.) Burlap (yd.) Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average Print cloth (yd.), average Wool tops (Ib.) Hides (Ib.). Rosin (100 Ib.) Rubber (Ib.) Tallow (Ib.) 44+ 444~ 44. Hh 4- 4. 4. + H4, 4, ,+ (38) (62) (46) .529 .494 4.473 4, .060 4- • • .061 .060 : 29.155 29,723 4- 29,840 1.470 1.496 1.547 ,139 .139 t ,139 4.132 ,125 ,129, .253 .264 .275 .198 + .199 .195 44 1,563 ± 1,594 1,553 .154 .167 .164 10.796 10.839 10.894 ,166 ,171 ,177 , .042 .045 .044 4 D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3 (Thousands) Avg. weekly initial claims . . .4 Northeast region: Boston (6) Buffalo (20) Newark (11) New York (1) Paterson (22) Philadelphia (4) Pittsburgh (9) Providence (25) North Central region: Chicago (2) Cincinnati (21) Cleveland (10) Columbus (26). Detroit (5) Indianapolis (23). Kansas City (19). Milwaukee (17) Minneapolis (13) St. Louis (8) South region: Atlanta (18) Baltimore (12) Dallas (15) Houston (14) West region: Los Angeles (3) Portland (24) . ... San Francisco (7) Seattle (16) . 26J 225 4* 4- i 215 4- (72) ' (34) (55) Percent rising of 47 components 4- 209 O 209 4- (38) (61) 4 4 4 4 4* 4* 4. 4- 44 4 4 4" 4 4. 4 4 4- 44* 4. 4- 4* 4 4- 4- 44 4 •f 4- 4 4 Hh '4- 4- 4 4. 4- 4 -4, 4- 4. 4V 4 4" 4* 4, 4, 4 4- 4* 4, , 44, 4 4 4 44. 4 4 4 -*. 4- 4- 444 4- 44 4- 4* 4- 2H (26) 4 4 4 " 4- 4 4 198 (47) 4- 4 . . + 4, 4 4, 201 (74) 44. 4- 4- 4- « 4- 4. 44. 4- 4- 4.. m ._.; NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-rflonth directions of ctiaflge are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numhers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. 1 Average for February 19, 20, and 21. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded. 3 The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises: (-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month. Directions of change are shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank. 2 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 60 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis bed Table 4 ANALYTICAL MEASURES FEBRUARY 1968 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued 1968 1967 Diffusion index components June November r October September August July Januaryp December D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1 (Thousands of employees) All nonagricultural establishments 4- 65,903 + 65,939 (72) (53) 4- 4* 4- 149 512 371 498 1,037 1,048 1,372 1,251 1,377 285 340 1,201 75 841 1,239 535 673 583' 119 362 302 619 3,187 4,266 3,555 10,093 3,227 10,035 2,747 8 889 4 44, Percent rising of 30 components ..,...,... Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery Electrical equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products. Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products Mining Contract construction Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, real estate Servke and miscellaneous Federal government State and local government 444. -f 444-f 44~ 4* 44A 4-f 4444. 151 508 -. 366 o 493 1,023. 41,041 4. 1,366 441,265 41 32640 2&5 n 339 1,185 76 4 834 41,220 4 536 4 4674 4585 o 119 362 4. O 295 44 623 43,231 4 4,292 O 3,555 4 o 10,092 3,234 44" 4 10 074 4. 2,759 4" 4- Q 4. 8 Q10 4" 66,055 4- 66,190 (58) (35) 155 509 _. 369 4, 497 1,024 1,048 -. 1,375 1,290 1.410 285 337 1,148 4 72 839 4 1,223 534 673 585 118 401 4 299 4, 606 3,223 4* 4,283 3,569 10,095 4 3,253 4 10 130 4. 2,746 Q 4. 8 Q&7 154 4 508 4 370 4494 4 1,003 41,023 41,365 1,260 41 297 281 4 336 1,175 4 69 4842 4 1,218 4 527 4. 669 585 120 407 300 601 3,238 4,262 3,565 10,154 3,264 10 161 2,715 $ Q*n O 4 4~ 4- 4. 444, 66, 243 l (75) 157 513 374 500 1,009 1,024 1,329 1,270 1 2$Q 283 335 1,185 70 847 1,223 531 669 594 121 408 303 597 3,236 4,251 3,567 10,209 3,270 10 199 2,712 Q fttl : 4- 66,918 '4. -67,110 ^ (80) (92) O 4444» 4. 4-f 4, 4, 4444444444O 444" 44* 4, 157 4, 515 377 505 1,031 1,045 1,372 1,289 1 380 285 338 1,188 77 848 1,231 533 673 595 121 412 306 597 3,289 4,287 3,602 10, 298 3,290 10 297 2 698 4. 4444, 4, 4. 4444» 4* 4444. 444* 4- 44» 4» Q T3& 6? , 146 (55) 162 r!59 4, 520 r519 + r384 4-_ 387 511 r514 1,023 rl,D32 _1,059 r 1,060 1,361 1^333 4. 1,302 1,295 4, 1 A10 rl*405 4, 288 r287 4* 348 r340 4rl,190 41,196 72 r74 r855 853 r 1,237 1,224 r536 535 - r672 4674 598 r598 O 121 r!20 413 r414 306 307 r599 596 3,226 r3,346 4,288 r4,290 O 3,592 r3,592 o rlO,272 4. 10,304 r3,303 4^ 3,311 rlO 333 4" 10 367 2,703 r2 708 •«Q 177 Q 2?6 D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1 (1957-59=100) All industrial production r> Percent rising of 24 components 2 m Durable goods: Primary and fabricated metals Primary metal products Fabricated metal products Machinery and related products Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Clay, glass, and lumber Clay, glass, and stone products Lumber and products Furniture and miscellaneous Furniture and fixtures Miscellaneous 4- o 4- 155.6 (56) 4- 129.0 160.8 4- 181.3 172.4 169 3 184.1 44. 4- 133^5 114.9 44- 166-3 156,7 156.6 (58) 4- 129,6 159.8 (67) 156 8 (42) 129.3 159.1 129.2 158,1 158.1 4. 4- 4. rl6l 8 (83) 44- rl40.4 rl63. 0 4* 4" 181.3 186 3 165 6 185 4 4* 179*5 r!85 . 7 177 4 186.5 4. 4. rl43.5 pi 21. 8 4. 4. 171.3 rl56.8 rl56 9 (56) 4- rl31.7 44- 134.9 159.7 4. 4- r!58.2 159.5 (88) 182.2 177,1 170 8 182.9 44. 4. 4. 182.6 183.2 171 9 183.2 182.1 182 4 159 2 183 1 4, 177.2 182 8 rl59 2 183 2 134.1 115.5 4- 136.9 4. 109.2 4- 138.4 114.3 44- 139!7 117.0 4- 139.2 120.6 162.7 155,4 4- 164.8 154.9 166^3 156.4 4- 166.6 155.0 44" 167.8 155.1 4, 4* 161 2 (29) 4* 4. 136 165 182 185 176 188 133 I4b (NA) 44, 173 159 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. -"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded. 61 Table 4 ANALYTICAL MEASURES beef FEBRUARY 1968 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued 1967 1968 Diffusion index components July June September August October November December January D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION^Continued (1957-59=100) Nondurable goods: Textiles apparel and leather .............. Texti le mi 1 1 products. Apparel products* • • • . . . • . . . • • • • . • • • • • • 4 Leather and products Paper and printing Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals petroleum and rubber Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Foods, beverages and tobacco Foods and beverages Tobacco products Minerals: Coal Crude oil and natural gas Metal, stone, and earth minerals Metal mining Stone and earth minerals 4- 136.6 142.4 105.4 44- 151.6 147.8 4- 4- 199.9 134.4 166,9 4- 131.9 123.9 4 44- 4- 4 4- 136.8 144.2 103.0 444- 149*0 146,3 4- 201.0 132.8 170.1 _ 4- 44- 138.7 146.4 106,5 444- 152.8 148.6 4* 200.7 133.2 203.1 4- 131.7 121.4 ~ w 4- 141.3 146,8 106.4 4* *. 4- Hh rl56.1 r!45«5* 4- • «. ; p!57.9 rl44.3 «. 4- r205.5 4r!37.6 4r 199.1 4- 206,7 rl38.8 p205,5 4- r!97.4 p209,8 rl32.a pl!5.5 4- 115.3 126.4 4_ 116.1 124.6 4- r!54,5 144.3 44- 4- 202.3 137.0 202.4 4- 131.2 4-» 132.2 118.0 4- 112,3 r 126.1 4 _ 4- 4- (MA) pl4# 4- 4 4 + 4- 122.5 121.6 133.9 133.3 4- 4- 122.6 129.1 4- 4- 119.7 133.7 4- 4- _ 120.2 117.2 131.2 105.7 136.6 115.5 127.5 -. 95.6 136.5 _ _ 93.8 132,9 «. 4- (NA) 4- P94.9 p!43.2 4- 107.2 4- 107.6 p!98 p!32 (HA) (HA) rl31.9 p!33.2 r93.2 r!39.0 (HA) pl44 (NA) (HA) (HA) pi39.a 4- «. 4- (HA) 4- 131.5 123.6 pl42 (MA) (MA) (MA) 4* 4- 152,9 145.4 *. r!46.5 p!52.8 (HA) rl47.4 p!49,0 pll3.4 r!44.9 r!46.2 r!09,7 Hh ^ pill p!26 pll8 (HA) (NA) D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2 (1957-59=100) All manufacturing industries 4- 106.6 4- (50) Durable goods: Lumber and wood products 40 Nonmetallic mineral products Iron and steel Nonferrous metals Fabricated structural metal products Miscellaneous metal products General purpose machinery and equipment Miscellaneous machinery Electrical machinery and equipment Motor vehicles and equipment. Miscellaneous products Nondurable goods: Processed foods and feeds Cotton products Wool products Manmade fiber textile products Apparel Pulp, paper, and allied products Chemicals and allied products Petroleum products, refined Rubber and rubber products Hides, skins, leather, and related products 44- o 4_ 4- 4- 4- 4O O 4- 104.7 100.8 103.9 103.3 118.7 104.9 113.7 113.1 109.1 101.8 101.4 109.6 112.6 99.7 103.2 85.8 106.7 103.9 98.5 103.1 95.8 115.6 106.8 0 444- 4440 _ _ 4. 4_ 4444O 4- (66) (64) 4, 106.8 107.1 o (75) 4- 4- 4- 104.0 118.6 4105 . 14113.8 4113.2 -f 118.9 105.5 114.2 113.6 4- 119.4 105.6 114.1 114.0 4 109.1 101.7 101.3 109.7 109.4 101.6 101.3 110.0 109.7 101.5 101.5 110.2 4- 113.1 98.9 103.3 85.5 107.1 104.1 98 3 103.3 95.8 115.2 4+ 4- 4_ O 4- _• _ 44- 44- 112.1 98.8 102.9 85.9 107.3 104.0 98.0 104.6 97.8 114.4 4 4- 44 4_ 44- 44-. 444- 40 108.7 101.2 104.7 112.7 99.2 102.7 86.3 107.4 104.1 97.9 103.9 98.2 114.4 4 + _ 4 O 4 O 44 _ •f 4444* 4 4- 107.3 101.7 104.9 103.9 120.7 105.7 114.1 114.4 109.9 101.5 103.7 110.5 111.7 99.1 102.8 86.9 107.5 104.3 98.2 101.0 98.8 114.8 4 4 4 44 O 44444 4444 O 44- 106.7 102.0 105.1 104.3 44 4+ 122.7 105.9 114.1 114.7 4- 110.4 101.6 104,0 110.6 4 110.9 101.2 102.2 88.1 108.0 104.6 98.2 100.4 99.1 115.4 4- (91) (77) (73) 106.1 101.0 104.5 103.5 105.3 100.9 104.2 103.4 107.1 444 4 O 4- 4 4O + 44 4 4 4- 107.6 102.1 105.3 104.7 123.7 106,1 114.4 115.2 110.8 102.3 104.0 110.7 111.5 104.2 102.2 88.6 108.1 104,8 98.4 99.9 99.2 116,0 108,1 (91) 44 44 4* 4444444- 4444 44_ _ 44- 108.6 103.0 106.0 105.5 125.1 106.2 114.7 115.4 112.0 102.7 104.3 111.0 112.4 105.2 102,3 89.3 108.3 105.2 98.2 98.8 99.5 116.5 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. •"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data are not seasonally adjusted. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 62 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Table 4 bed ANALYTICAL MEASURES FEBRUARY 1968 SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued 1967 1968 Diffusion index components June July August September Novemberr October January? December D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1 (Millions of dollars) 4 Grocery stores . e 4 26,544 26,444 (£3) (44) 4 Eating and drinking places 4 Department stores Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . . 4 4 Variety stores Other general merchandise stores Men's and boys' wear stores Women's apparel , accessory stores Fami ly and other apparel stores Shoe stores Furniture home furnishings stores •• o Other nondurable-goods stores • 2,059 2,377 4 228 516 4 4 4 •••• ••••• ..\ 4 4 4 4 5,516 5,535 4- 5,543 4 2,071 4 2,094 4 2,110 2,305 4 2,354 236 506 4 2,341 4 222 4 516 o 326 596 4 332 594 239 516 4 2,104 2,321 250 508 4 + 340 605 4 322 607 307 575 257 812 450 789 252 254 771 423 786 252 4 241 784 4 397 771 260 4 250 781 4 424 767 258 4 4 4 4,750 319 4,814 316 4 2,040 2,020 4 923 599 903 580 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 1 (67) 4 O 4 44 5,584 26,402 p5,633 4 27,176 (65) 4 (NA) 4 4 2,133 2,371 239 533 4 (39) - p2,108 P2.368 p231 P531 4 p309 p555 4 4 (NA) (HA) (NA) (NA) 4,731 322 4 4 4,891 333 2,003 4 2,028 913 597 O 4 4,361 346 4 901 599 4 4 2,015 912 600 — ».. 4 4 4 4 4 4 324 578 •^ 4 249 782 4 454 774 247 4 4,331 361 4 4 4 2,064 4 4 p241 p787 p459 p849 p245 4 (NA) (NA) 4 4 (NA) 4 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4 4 4 26,411 4 4 244 775 4 450 754 4 260 r> 4 *~ 4 4 (37) (76) 4 4 -f 26,089 26,732 4 4 • 4 (61) 4 4 Household appliance TV radio stores Lumberyards building materials dealers • • • • • • • • Hardware stores Farm equipment dealers ....*... ..••.. Passenger car and other automotive dealers. Tire battery accessory dealers Drug and proprietary stores Liouor stores •• Jewelry stores 5,500 5,548 4 26,422 4 4 928 601 4 4 4 p4,378 p328 p2,019 p944 P589 4 4 4 4 4 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) — 4 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+)= rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 63 Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961 Duration in months Contraction (trough from previous peak) Business cycle reference dates Trough December 1854 December 1858 June 1861 December 1867 December 1870 March 1879 Cycle Expansion (trough to peak) Trough from previous trough Peak from previous peak Peak June 1857 October 1860 April 1865 June 1869 October 1873 ". March 1882 (x) 18 8 32 15 65 30 22 46 13 34 36 (x) (x) 48 30 78 36 99 40 54 50 52 101 May 1885 April 1888 May. 1891 June 1894 June 1897 December 1900 March 1887 July 1890 . . January 1893 December 1895 June 1899 September 1902 38 13 10 17 18 18 22 27 20 18 24 21 74 35 37 37 36 42 60 40 30 35 42 39 August 1904 June 1908 January 1912 December 1914 March 1919 July 1921 May 1907 January 1910 • • January 1913 August 1918 January 1920 May 1923 23 13 24 23 7 i§ 33 19 12 44 10 22 44 46 43 35 51 28 56 32 36 67 17 40 July 1924 November 1927 March 1933 June 1938 October 1945 October 1949 October 1926 August 1929. . May 1937 February 1945 November 1948 . July 1953 14 13 43 13 8 11 27 21 50 80 37 45 36 40 64 63 88 ^8 41 34 93 93 ~Z5 56 August 1954 April 1958 February 1961 July 1957 May 1960 13 -9 9 35 25 (X) 58 44 34 48 34 (X) Average, all cycles: 26 cycles, 1854-1961 . . 10 cycles, 1919-1961 . . 4 cycles, 1945-1961... 19 15 10 30 35 36 49 50 46 Average, peacetime cycles: 22 cycles, 1854-1961 . . 8 cycles, 1919-1961 . . . 3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . . 20 16 10 26 28 32 45 45 42 !49 54 3 46 2 4 5 6 46 48 42 NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions. X 25 2 cycles, 1857-1960. 9 cycles, 1920-1960. ^ cycles, 1945-1960. 21 cycles, 1857-1960. 4 5 7 6 cycles, 1920-1960. 3 cycles, 1945-1960. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 65 Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning inSelected series Feb. 1961 Apr. 1958 Aug. 1954 Oct. 1949 June 1938 Mar. 1933 Nov. 1927 July 1924 July 1921 LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek, production workers, 30. 38 6 10. 29. Dec. '60 '61 '61 '61 '61 '60 Apr. Mar. Apr. Jan. Mar. Feb. '58 '58 '58 '58 '58 '58 '49 '49 '49 '49 '49 '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NSC) May ' 24 Jan. '21 Apr. '38 Mar. '33 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Dec. '37 Dec. '32 May ' 27 July '24 Dec. '20 Dec. Dec. Oct. IstQ Apr. Apr. Dec. IstQ '58 Nov. '53 Apr. '49 '58 Feb. '54 June '49 '57 Sep. '53 June '49 '58 4thQ '53 2ndQ '49 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21 (NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21 Apr. '38 June '32 2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 2ndQ '21 Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . Jan. Jan. Index of net business formation New orders durable goods industries ...... Jan. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Mar. New building permits, private housing units. . Dec. 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories 23 Industrial materials prices 19. S(ock prices, 1500 common stocks 16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q) 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing 113. Change in consumer installment debt '60 '60 '60 '61 Apr. May Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. '54 '54 '54 '53 '54 '53 Apr. July July June Apr. Jan. Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 May '49 Apr. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Jan. '49 Dec. '37 Apr. '32 Feb. '38 Feb. '32 Aug. '27 (NA) June '24 Mar. '21 (NA) (NA) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments. Feb. '61 May '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21 (NA) (NA) (NA) May ' 61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 May '33 43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) (NSC) (NSC) 50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q) 4thQ '21 IstQ '61 IstQ '58 2ndQ ' 54 2ndQ '49. IstQ '38 3rdQ '32 47. 52. 816 54 Industrial production Personal income Manufacturing and trade sales Sales of retai 1 stores Oct. '49 July '49 Oct. '49 (NSC) May '38 May '3.8 (NA) May '38 July '61 Aug. '58 Oct. '54 Nov. '49 (NA) Feb. '61 (NSC) Jan. '61 Apr. '61 Apr. Feb. Mar. Mar. '58 Apr. '54 '58 Apr. '54 '58 Aug. '54 '58 Jan. '54 July '32 Nov. '27 Mar. '33 4 t h Q ' 2 6 (NA) (NA) (NSC) Mar. '33 July '24 Apr. '21 2 n d Q ' 2 4 2ndQ '21 (NA) (NA) (NSC) Mar. '22 LAGGING INDICATORS 502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over ( inverted) 61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment (Q) 71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (0) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21 2ndQ '61 3rdQ '58 IstQ '55 4thQ '49 3rdQ '38 IstQ '33 4thQ '27 Mar. '61 Aug. '58 Oct. '54 Dec.^ '49 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Sep. '61 June '59 Sep. '55 July '50 June '40 July '33 (NSC) (NSC) Apr. '22 July '58 Oct. '54 Aug. '49 Dec. '38 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55 IstQ '50 3rdQ '41 (NSC) Feb. '28 Nov. '24 Sep. '22 (NSC) NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles. NA= Not available. 66 NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date. Appendix B.-SPEC1F1C TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS-Continued Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series May 1960 July 1957 July 1953 May 1937 Nov. 1948 Aug. 1929 Oct. 1926 May 1923 Jan. 1920 LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing 30. Nonagri cultural placements, all industries. . . 38. Index of net business formation 6. New orders, durable goods industries 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . 29. New building permits, private housing units. . 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories 23 Industrial materials prices 19 Stock prices 500 common stocks 16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q) 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing 113 Change in consumer installment debt June July Apr. Apr. Sep. Nov. ' 59 '59 '59 '59 '59 '58 Nov. Nov. Mar. Dec. Nov. Feb. '55 Mar. '53 '55 Feb. '53 '55 Sep. '52 '55 Jan. '53 '56 May ' 51 '55 Nov. '52 Dec. Nov. July 2ndQ '59 '59 '59 '59 Apr. Dec. July 4thQ '56 '55 '56 '55 June '59 Aug. '59 Oct. '55 Mar. '55 Jan. Feb. Jan. 2ndQ (NA) (NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22 (NA) (NSC) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Apr. '46 (NA) (NSC) Nov. '25 Jan. '23 Aug. '4-8 Dec. '36 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) June '48 Oct. '47 Feb. '37 Feb. '28 July '25 Jan. '24 July '19 (NA) (NA) '53 July '46 '51 Jan. '48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29 '53 June '48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29 '53 2ndQ '48 4thQ '36 3rdQ '29 Jan. '51 June '48 Mar. '37 July '29 Dec. '52 Mar. '48 Mar. '36 May ' 29 Nov. (NA) '25 (NSC) 3rdQ '26 (NA) (NA) Mar. '23 Apr. '20 Mar. '23 July '19 (NA) 2ndQ '23 Sep. '26 (NA) June '22 Feb. '20 (NA) (NA) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments. Apr. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Sep. '48 July '37 Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Feb. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Jan. '48 July '37 43. Unemployment rate total (inverted) (NA) (NSC) (NSC) IstQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29 50. GNP in 1958 dollars (0) 47. 52 816. 54 Industrial production Personal income Manufacturing and trade sales Sales of retail stores '53 July '48 May ' 37 July '29 Mar. '27 May ' 23 Feb. '20 (NA) '53 Oct. '48 June '37 Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) '53 Aug. '48 (NSC) July '20 (NSC) (NSC) Sep. '37 Sep. '29 '53 Jan . ' 60 (NSC) Jan. '60 Apr . ' 60 Feb. Aug. Feb. Aug. May ' 60 Sep. '57 Oct. '53 Jan. '49 2ndQ '60 3rdQ '57 3rdQ '53 4thQ '48 July '60 Sep. '57 Sep. '53 Feb. '49 '57 '57 '57 '57 July Oct. July Mar. LAGGING INDICATORS 502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over ( inverted) 61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment (0) 71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (0) AthQ '59 AthQ ' 57 (NA) 2ndQ '29 (NA) 4thQ '26 (NA) (NA) Dec. '37 (NSC) (NSC) '48 Sep. '37 (NA) (NA) 2ndQ '49 (NSC) Oct. '29 July '53 Aug. 4thQ '53 3rdQ '37 (NA) '48 Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54- Nov. (NSC). Sep. '57 (NA) Oct. '26 (NA) (NA) 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20 (NA) Oct. '23 Nov. (NA) (NA) '20 (NA) Oct. '23 Feb. '21 NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as the peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles. NA= Not available. NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date. 67 Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES Part L-Average Percentage Changes Average duration of run (ADR) W Monthly series Period covered Cl 1 c T/C for MCD span MCD Cl 1 C 9.78 9.78 MCD MONTHLY SERIES LEADING INDICATORS *L Average workweek of production workers, mfg *30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries 2. Accession rate, manufacturing 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 2.08 4.61 1.66 4.37 1.00 1.41 2.14 1.66 3.11 3 2 4 .73 .95 .80 2.20 2.00 2.17 1.49 1.57 1.53 11.73 4.05 3.65 3.53 Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 5.32 4.71 2.16 2.17 3 .75 1.73 1.48 12.57 3.95 3 *38. 13 *6 94. Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65- • Jan. '53-Sep. '67- • Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 9.38 8.57 3.23 ? . && <L DO &(i . OD .60 8 • nn UU 1 crrt 4. 28 2.24 1.63 1.56 6.61 8.38 3.22 6.13 1.42 1.61 -| ryrt -L • ^O 1 . J? ^Q -L 8 .#n ou / oy 4.^4 3.81 .66 .83 .69 .79 2.71 1.85 3.62 6.42 1.15 2.35 9 . <L07 <C I 4.08 2.54 .53 .95 1O 2 • J-<C -] / rt -L .H-O .79 ji 2 3 2 5 1.57 1.45 9.26 3.44 4.58 4.06 4.27 3.65 1.39 1.50 3.07 2.43 4 3 .85 .85 1.80 1.89 1.63 1.61 8.80 12.57 3.33 3.41 8.47 7.24 8.38 6.97 1.05 1.48 7.96 4.71 6 5 C1) .92 1.52 1.63 1.47 1.51 13.54 8.67 3.00 2.78 Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 3.90 3.34 1.66 2.02 3 .66 1.93 1.56 12.57 3.28 Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 6.46 5.38 2.83 1.90 3 .75 2.35 1.61 7.65 3.70 Ian '^-<\pn Jail, jo OC|J. 'K7 0/» . 4.99 4.53 1.88 <£ • H-.L P 41 jQ rjc • i -) 1 . O_? #£> -L 1 .OJL AT JL J.U . 3D Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 7.42 5.73 4.04 1.42 2 .92 3.09 1.83 8.00 3.89 1.30 1.01 1.84 2 2 3 5 3 .92 .56 .85 (i\ ( ) 2.15 1.60 1.71 11.73 3.80 4.38 4.24 .80 2.55 2.44 2.48 1.49 1.85 1 1 .73 .80 3.74 2.98 Layoff rate manufacturing Index of net business formation New business incorporations. New orders durable goods industries Construction contracts, value *10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment Jan. '53-Sep. '67 •• 24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries . Jan. . '53-Sep. '67 •• 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial, floor space Jan. '53-Sep. '67- 1, Private nonfarm housing starts . , Jan. '59-Sep. '67 •• *29. New building permits, private housing 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments 60 days or longer 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries *23. Industrial materials prices *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. 14 Liabil ities of business failures 39. Delinquency rate, installment credit loans .46 Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . 1.32 Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . 2.46 .63 Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65. • 18.74 Jan. '53-Dec. '65- - 2.63 .40 .19 .79 1.04 1.65 1.64 .51 18.24 1.70 2.42 .28 .95 10.72 2.55 -i n or 9.78 6.07 -2 I (L -> • -LO o 0-17 -5 .8/ 1 QQ -L . -J s A . QZ. O 77 H- 2 . (L-> 1.57 8.44 4.17 1.74 1.48 .12.57 7.65 3.74 2.98 i . _}t+ ^A -L i -i 170 -LJ- . /_? 19.56 29.33 4.89 3.89 00 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled 46. Help-wanted advertising 511 Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments *41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments 42 Total nonagricultural employment Jan. ' 53-Sep. '67. . Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 3.09' 2.96 1.71 1.79 Ian 'R3-^pn Jull. JO OC[J«'fi7 o/« . • H-JJ /o o-i . .2JL Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. Jan. '53-Sep. '67- • .31 .35 .14 .28 2.34 2.22 . ?n j>u .27 .20 .73 .80 i• U m -L .3 .53 2.17 2 .75 ? • o£.7 <. i -L • -> (i. 1 5? 8.00 -a . Q# -3 ;7O 1 2 .75 .87 5.03 3.35 1.81 1.52 8.38 6.56 5.03 3.98 1.64 11.73 3.52 1 .54 £j. 14 5 . 00 J_? -i o cy 1J. 54 rtQ 2 .89 3.00 2.08 1.45 Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . Jan. '54-Sep. '67. . 4.18 5.89 2.34 4.91 3.13 3.14 1.56 *47. Industrial production *52 Personal income 53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . Ion ' Do-oep. CQ Can 'C7 Jan. b/- • *816 Manufacturing and trade sales *54. Sales of retail stores 96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries 55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities 58 Wholesale prices manufactured goods 114. Treasury bill rate 116. Corporate bond yields. 115. Treasury bond yields 117. Municipal bond yields Ion ' C O Con 'C7 Jan. bo-oep. b/' • Jan. '53-Sep. '67- . Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . . rto83 1.00 .89 1.44 .70 ) rt . 54 . 5U .77 .63 .57 1.35 .47 1.62 1.28 .17 .11 .13 Jan ''tt-Spn Jull. JO OCp. 'fi7 O/. • • <cU on .1 -LoA 1 O » J-<C 6.42 1.75 1.65 2.49 See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1. 68 .73 .48 Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. Jan. '59-Sep. '67- • Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. .75 .51 .26 .76 .53 4.69 1.39 1.29 2.05 4.32 .94 .96 1.18 *s nn -J . UU 1.39 3.77 K.J c <~y • (-> 1.57 1.53 Jan. '53-Sep. '67- • • -34 2 .53 .74 *43 Unemployment rate total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs 40. Unemployment rate, married males .97 K'-) . 2<c 1 2 CJ 1 -i .70 C 1 4.89 3.52 <-\ c -] J . 54 3 . JJ dn .oU .76 2. 89 1.54 2 2.32 1.63 16.00 3.65 2 1 .93 .41 2.15 5.68 1.59 14.67 J.2.57 3.72 5.68 .84 OA 1.<£0 1 .84 .1-70 /9 4.09 1.66 3 .26 cj-n I.8U 9.26 in QC; 1U.J5 4.09 4.49 1.09 1.47 1.35 1.73 2 3 2 3 .71 .68 .94 .82 2.59 2.67 2.79 2.63 1.71 6.52 1.76 11.56 1.93 7.65 1.89 7.65 3.72 4.08 3.89 4.05 rjn .80 .41 _L 1 00 C ) . . r\s 1.59 Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Part l.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued Average duration of run (ADR) T/c Monthly series Period covered Cl c T T/C for MCD span MCD Cl 1 C MCD MONTHLY SERIES-Continued LAGGING INDICATORS *502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 505. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures ^an. '53-Sep, '67.. *71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories . . Jan. . '53-Sep, '67.. 65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories of finished goods Ijan. '53-Sep. '67. . *62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 66. Consumer installment debt *72. Commercial and indus. loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks 118 Mortgage yields residential 6.26 2 .U_3 1.77 1.43 K f\0 0 Q& J> • 7O -i c. • CO «/H- • no \J^y .37 2 1 .80 .37 1.89 6.77 1.48 1.59 17.60 25.14 3.13 6.77 .53 1 .53 3.59 1.43 16.00 3.59 2 1 .89 .13 2.48 13.54 1.64 1.64 6.07 25.14 13.54 1 i J- .62 1.52 9 nn 25.14 1 .78 .90 4.19 1.82 1.64 1.62 10.35 11.80 (X) .92 .73 (i) 11.80 1.37 1.51 9.14 11.80 1.62 8.50 1.47 9.33 1.46 8.80 1.48 1.43 9.78 1.57 .52 .18 .91 .49 .62 .29 .55 Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . . Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . . .59 .82 .46 .10 .32 .80 Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • • July '61-Sep. '67 • - .97 .50 ?l • fc-L .82 .62 • <Lft *+o . *+-P . 56 6 • 1717 /i 9 o^: -L . <CD 1.44 .13 /•2 (LO /o . HO 3.67 i n ^'j -LU . J I 1 C^(L * J\-> <c . UU £ 170 D • /_5 5 A*S _-> . o_^ 4.07 3.67 i n• J^n J.U f OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 81. Consumer prices 86. Exports, excluding military aid2 861, [Export orders, durables except motor vehicles and parts 862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery 87. General imports2 91. Defense Department obligations, total 90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement 99. New orders, defense products industries 92. Military contract awards in U.S. Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. Jan. '53-Oct. '67 • • .19 3.58 Oct.'62-Sep. '67.. 12.55 Jan. '57-Sep. '67 • • 6.44 Jan. '53-Oct. '67 •• 2.87 July '53-Sep. '67 . . 13.58 Jan. '56-Sep. '67-. 26.22 Jan. '53-Sep, '67.. 21.39 Jan. '53-Sep. ' 6 7 - . 20.91 .12 3.36 12.43 6.23 2.69 13.32 26.08 21.27 20.82 .15 .90 .78 3.74 .10.17 3.55 3.09 .87 9.74 1.37 2.00 13.04 1.74 12.25 2.61 7.98 1.22 1.75 4 6 4 4 6 6 6 6 (X) 1.44 1.60 1.79 1.44 1.43 1.56 1.48 2 3 .95 .72 2.84 2.05 1.54 1.57 .93 1 .93 2.84 .80 1 .80 (") (i) \ / 4.19 3.41 2.35 2.84 3.48 2.06 1.96 2.44 2.59 U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION 851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods. . 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods 855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled to number of persons unemployed 856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing to consumer prices Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. .99 2.04 .85 1.77 .46 .96 1.84 1.84 8.80 11.00 4.61 4.35 1.63 9.26 2.84 3.26 1.52 8.38 3.26 Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. .93 Jan. '53-Sep. '67-. 5.54 Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. .36 .30 .18 1.67 2 .92 2.38 1.60 19.56 3.72 .81 .67 .98 .74 .55 .37 .47 .62 .60 1.21 2.63 1.58 1.71 2.20 2 3 2 2 3 I 2 .56 .94 .75 .87 .63 .95 .98 4.29 2.38 3.45 3.45 2.29 3.59 2.79 1.41 1.45 1.44 1.48 1.48 1.39 1.66 10.35 8.80 25.14 16.00 16.00 13.54 29.33 6.48 4.14 6.25 9.21 4.97 3.59 4.07 .93 .73 .59 2.00 1.68 1.54 11.00 14.67 8.80 12.50 8.70 7.61 .60 3.33 .65 4.15 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS 123. 122. 121. 126. 125. 128. 127. Canada, industrial production Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • • United Kingdom, industrial production Jan. '53-Sep. '67 •• OECD European countries, industrial production. . . Jan'. '53-Sep*. '67-. France, industrial production Jan. '53-Sep. '67 •• West Germany, industrial production Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • • Japan, industrial production. Jan. '53-Sep. '67- • Italy, industrial production. Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • • 133. 132. 136. 135. 138. 137. Canada, consumer prices United Kingdom, consumer prices France, consumer prices West Germany, consumer prices Japan, consumer prices Italy, consumer prices Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . . Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. .25 .45 .52 .32 .81 .33 143. 142. 146. 145. 148. 147. Canada, stock prices United Kingdom, stock prices France, stock prices West Germany, stock prices Japan, stock prices Italy, stock prices Jan. '53-Sep. '67 •• Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • • Jan. '53-Sep. '67 •• Jan. '53-Sep. '67- • Jan. '53-Sep. '67-. Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 2.77 3.13 4.00 3.34 3.60 3.78 Ian '^3-Qon JdM. Do ocp. b/'C7• • Ian >cjo »3-<Jpn Jail, OcjJ. *K7 D/ » » 1.04 .82 1.19 1.44 1.69 1.43 1.07 1.32 1.17 1.28 .31 .49 .44 .36 .74 .35 2.13 2.49 3.35 2.03 2.44 3.00 1.23 .95 .72 1.78 .19 .27 .39 .22 .38 .31 1.66 1.82 1.14 1.65 1.95 1.14 2 3 2 3 3 2 9.26 6.29 7.04 8.00 . 75 3.09 .69 .61 19.56 1.33 1.48 1.79 2 2 3 1 2 3 .87 .90 .66 .86 .64 .72 1.61 1.68 1.87 2.37 2.29 1.89 .86 1.07 1.59 3.26 2.63 2.48 3.52 3.26 2.44 n . *7? i -> n .AH DU 1.80 10.35 8.38 6 .96 25.00 1.78 1.71 1.68 1.85 1.68 1.85 11.00 8.00 7.33 7.33 7.04 8.80 3.98 3.72 4.14 3.52 4.49 5.12 -] -L .Q& yd 1.64 See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1. 69 Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes—Continued Period covered Quarterly series Cl I/C C 1 QCD I/C for QCD span Average duration of run (ADR) Cl C 1 QCD QUARTERLY SERIES LEADING INDICATORS 11. New capital appropriations manufacturing ..... *16. Corporate profits after taxes 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries 18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing 110. Total private borrowing IQ'53-IIIQ'67 IQ'53-IIIQ'67 9.31 5.16 4.62 2.77 6.89 3.99 .67 .69 l .67 .69 3.05 3.05 1.29 1.29 3.41 4.83 3.05 3.05 IQ'53-IIIQ'67 IQ'53-IIIQ'67 IQ'53-IIIQ'67 4.08 5.59 2.54 3.41 6.17 2.95 3.67 8.16 .86 .93 .76 1 1 l .86 .93 .76 2.52 2.64 2.23 1.26 1.32 1.29 5.27 3.87 3.62 2.52 2.64 2.23 .23 .30 .24 .16 6.44 3.41 1.35 1.29 1.18 8.29 6.44 6.44 3.41 11.60 11.60 10.95 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 49. *50. 57. 97. GNP in current dollars IQ'53-IIIQ'67 GNP in 1958 dollars IQ'53-IIIQ'67 Final sales • • . • • • IQ'53-IIIQ'67 Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing. i!Q'53-IIIQ'67 1.54 1.23 1.40 5.36 .34 .33 .32 .84 1.46 1.11 1.37 5.21 .23 .30 .24 .16 1 1 l 3.13 .74 2.91 .26 1 11.60 L » -L*+ ~\ L *+ 4.14 -] .26 5.80 1.41 5.80 5.80 3 • pic U_) 2.64 -1 QO -L . <c_5 / H-D /A H-. 3• 1.49 3.62 2.64 "50 -L . -JeL LAGGING INDICATORS *61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product (1958 dol.) nonfinancial corporations *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 1Q'53-IIIQ'67 . e:£ ^O -i-L . cd 2O IQ'53-IHQ'67 2.23 1.02 2.05 .50 1 .50 IQ'53-IIIQf67 IQ'53-IIIQ'67 IQ'53-1IIQ'67 3.01 3.75 2.33 1.73 2.91 .73 1 .73 .82 2.39 2.15 1.99 1.36 .41 2 1 .52 .41 2.32 1.76 2.76 1.29 1.23 1.23 3.41 4.46 4.83 2.32 2.71 2.76 IQ'53-IIIQ'67 2.18 .85 1.77 .48 1 .48 2.90 1.41 3.87 2.90 IQf53-IIIQ'67 IQ'56-IIIQ'67 8.50 3.78 2 1 .52 .90 1.57 2.09 1.29 1.44 3.62 3.29 3.17 2.09 lO1 K3 IIIIVC7 /o • &£ oo • H-<£ • 170 1C. fNC \JJ OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 83. Federal cash receipts from public 82. Federal cash payments to public 101. National defense purchases, current dollars U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION 850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income 857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing 6.66 2.21 ^Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. 4.57 2.47 1.46 .90 1 Not shown for series when MOD is "6" or more. 2 Measures based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-March 1963 and December 1964-May 1965 due to effects of strikes. BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1 The following are brief definitions of the measures shown in part I of this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business. October 1957). "Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series. "7" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C* is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe 70 cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6". Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1—Continued in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. "T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", nq_l/C ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans. "Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally ad justed series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally ad justed series. A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CI is 1.73 for the series on average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.48 for I and 12.57 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 3.95 for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 2-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (2 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR from 1.48 for CI to 3.95 for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not. Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Part 2.-Average Unit Changes iI/C /P Monthly series Period covered Unit of measure CI C 1 I/C MCD for MCD span Average duration of run (ADfM \r\Ut\) CI 1 C MCD MONTHLY SERIES LEADING INDICATORS *31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories Jan.'53-Sep. '67. Ann. rate bil. dol.. 3.79 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . . . do. . . 1.51 inventories of materials, supplies .50 25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods industries. Jan. '53-Sep. '67. Bil. dol. . 98. Change in money supply and time deposits .... Jan. '53-Sep. '67. Ann. rate, 2.49 percent . Jan. '53-Sep. '67. ... do. . . 2.89 85. Change in U S money supply Jan. '55-Sep. '67. Ann. rate 33. Change in mortgage debt bil. dol.. 1.34 Jan.'53-Sep. '67 • . . . d o . . . •413. Change in consumer installment debt .86 Aug. '59-Sep. '67. ... do. . 112, Change in business loans 2 77 3.67 .77 4.78 5 .96 1.53 1.45 6.29 2.65 1.45 .47 .29 .13 5.04 3.63 6 5 (1) .80 1.63 1.69 1.54 1.60 6.52 8.00 2.95 3.44 2.49 2.92 .33 .37 7.45 7.88 6 6 f1) C1) 1.47 1.44 1.40 1.42 1.26 .78 2 72 .37 .30 28 3.43 2.64 9 78 3 3 6 .98 .90 (i) 1.35 10.13 1.49 1.64 11.00 1.48 1 56 1 5610 78 11.00 11.00 2.85 2.85 2.94 3.16 3 83 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 93. Free reserves Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • Mil. dol. . 93.44 75.38 46.88 1.61 2 .96 2.07 1.59 9.26 3.13 Jan. '53-Oct. '67. 57.74 55.59 15.55 3.58 4 .86 1.62 1.57 9.32 3.55 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 88. Merchandise trade balance 2. ... do. . See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 2. 71 Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued Part 2.-Average Unit Changes-Continued 1/c Quarterly series Period covered Unit of measure Cl c 1 T/C QCD Average duration of run (ADR) for QCD span Cl 1 C QCD QUARTERLY SERIES LEADING INDICATORS 21. Change in business inventories, all industries IQ'53-IIIQ'67.. Ann. rate, bil. dol.. 2.59 1.69 1.50 1.12 2 .49 1.76 1.35 4.46 3.00 IQ'53-IIIQ'67 .. IQ'60-IIIQ'67 .. Mil. dol... 307.88 213.76 199.96 1.07 ,..do... 573.37 340.19 324.11 1.05 2 2 .48 .66 1.71 1.88 1.26 1.50 3.05 2.50 2.71 2.07 95 Fed. balance nat'l. income and product acct IQ'53-IIIQ'67 • - 84 Federal cash surplus or deficit IQ'53-IIIQ'67 •• Ann. rate, bil. dol.. ...do... 1 2 .68 .62 2.23 2.00 1.38 1.35 3.62 2.76 2.23 2.28 OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES 89. U.S. balance of payments: b Official settlements basis 2.61 4.53 1.36 3.30 2.00 2.44 .68 1.35 1 *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. Not shown for series when MCD is "6" or more. 2 Measures based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-March 1963 and December 1964-May 1965 due to effects of strikes. BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2 The measures in part 2 are computed by an additive method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative data. Thus, "Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself. 72 "C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "T" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series. All other measures shown in part 2 have the same meaning as in part 1. Appendix D.--CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1967 TO JUNE 1968) 1968 196/ Series May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance 13. New business incorporations1 79.2 81.2 107 7 84.1 73.7 106.1 104.4 94.6 98.1 89.5 84.3 101.9 138 5 145.8 112 7 96 0 94 9 79 3 99.4 108.6 105.3 106.1 95.7 87.3 96.5 118.7 80 9 97.3 14 Liabilities of business failures 18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing2. 100.4 120.0 106.1 85.2 81.8 101.5 100.3 89.6 98 2 110 1 99 6 97 3 97.9 105.4 119 8 30 Nonagricultural placements all industries1 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies 3 113.1 106.8 37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans^ 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement 110.3 +256 94.4 119.5 102.9 96.7 100.7 113.6 116.3 +152 +34 104.5 101.1 99.2 100.3 97.6 +41 +38 98.8 92.1 113.9 -58 91.3 96.6 79.4 84.1 83.5 -129 +279 -285 -388 92.2 90.9 100.1 99.9 100.7 100 2 203 6 99.0 64 0 98.8 100.1 99.2 99.9 101.5 98 4 108 7 98 7 79 0 101 6 91 Defense Department obligations total 92. Military contract awards in U.S 91.9 151.6 90 1 184.2 98.6 94.4 96.9 107.0 90.7 111.5 112 Change in business loans 5 301 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled 98.4 94.3 87.6 80.2 +50 99.2 75 6 98 1 91 5 91 5 93.0 +13 +36 102.2 107.6 112.8 104.2 110.1 107.2 98.8 88.7 103.4 111.7 92.6 99 3 94.2 99 6 88.6 100.9 91.8 99.6 99.5 99.4 101.1 65 1 100 9 103.6 100 4 101.8 2O+.0 91 8 91.8 151.9 188 0 100.2 100.2 119 9 103 2 99.6 99.2 99.4 99.6 99.8 100.6 100.1 99.4 100.3 100.1 99.9 99 7 112 4 111 9 105 7 94 6 80 7 84 1 85 5 95 3 108 4 119 2 100.4 102 5 856 Ratio average earnings to consumer prices 100.3 100.0 99.6 98.9 99.9 862 Index of export orders nonelectrical machinery D34 Profits manufacturing (FNCB) 6 100 4 100 8 94 4 94 4 94 3 103 9 100.2 100.3 103.8 102.1 107.4 100.6 100.3 -9 99.7 100.1 100.4 100.4 +6 -15 79 2 80.4 +262 100.4 100.1 100.2 100.3 99.9 100.2 +17 NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. 1 Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to rounding. 2 Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter. 3 These quantities, in millions of dollars,, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method 1 seasonal adjustment program. ^Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.). 5 Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed. 6 l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method JL seasonal adjustment program, are subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index. 73 Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961 Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough Contractions: Reference peak to reference trough Jan. May Oct. Aug. May 1920-July 1921 1923-July 1924 1926-Nov. 1927 1929-Mar. 1933 1937-June 1938 Feb Nov July July May 1945-Oct 1948-Oct 1953-Aug 1957- Apr 1960-Feb 19454 1949 1954 5 1958 1961 Median:6 All contractions Excluding postwar contractions . 4 contractions since 1948 *41. Em- ployees in nonagri. establishments *47. Index of industrial production *50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q) 1 49. GNP in current dollars (Q) *52. Per- sonal income 1 *816. Manufacturing and trade sales *43. Unemployment rate, total *54. Sales of retail stores -49.6 -11.9 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) -43.5 -17.3 (NA) -1.6 -2.2 -3.4 -1.4 -10.9 -3.4 -0.8 -1.8 -0.2 -4.0 -4.7 0.0 +0.2 +0.9 (NA) -7.5 -7.2 -6.8 -3.1 +8.6 -0.5 -0.5 -2.4 -2.7 + 2.2 +4.1 +3.4 +3.2 +1.8 -1.9 -2.1 -1.9 -2.8 -2.8 -1.3 -2.0 -2.4 +0.1 -7.0 -5.8 -7.0 -2.2 -2.6 -1.4 +3.3 +3.6 + 3.3 -31.6 -18.0 -5.9 -51.8 -31.7 (NA) -0.3 + 2.3 -28.0 -8.9 -19.7 -2.3 +0.4 -7.9 -5.1 -3.4 -4.0 -1.8 -31.4 -8.5 -9.1 -14.1 -5.7 -5.7 -6.5 -3.7 -16.0 -16.0 -8.8 -4.3 -1.9 0.0 July July Nov Mar June 1921-May 1924-Oct 1927-Aug 1933-May 1938-Feb. 1923 1926 1929 ... 1937 19454 *41. Em- ployees in nonagri. establishments *47. Index of industrial production (NA) (NA) (NA) +64.2 +30.4 +40.2 +45.9 +119.9 +183.3 flrt IQAR-IMnv 1<U8 . Oct 1949-July 19535 Aug 1954-July 1957 Apr 1958-May 1960 +17.2 +17.8 +8.9 +6.9 + 21.9 Median:6 All expansions Excluding wartime expansions . . 4. pxnansinns sinre 194R +17.5 +13.0 +1 3.0 + 24.1 +50.0 +19.7 + 25.2 +35.2 +26.6 + p?_6 *50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q) 1 (NA) +12.4 +12.6 +42.1 (NA) + 3.3 + 28.8 +11.8 +11.4 +12.3 +12.1 4-11 ft 49. GNP in current dollars (Q) *52. Per- sonal income 1 *816. Manufacturing and trade sales Rate at peak Rate at trough 2 2 2 +7.9 *+2.3 2 +2.2 +25.4 -21.9 0.0 +0.9 -50.8 -10.9 (NA) (NA) (NA) -31.6 -10.4 Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak Expansions: Reference trough to reference peak Change in rate, peak to trough +8.8 2 3.2 2 1.9 11.9 *5..5 2 4.1 3 0.0 11.2 25.4 20.0 3 4.0 1.1 3.8 2.6 4.2 5.1 3.3 7.9 6.0 7.4 6.9 3.5 3.9 4.0 7.2 7.6 7.2 *43. Unemployment rate, total *54. Sales of retail stores Change in rate, trough to peak Rate at trough Rate at peak (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) +69.2 +105.4 +28.5 (NA) +63.8 +41.4 + 22.1 + 13.3 +50.0 + 25.6 + 20.3 +11.9 +0.3 -5.3 -1.8 -2.3 3.3 7.9 6.0 7.4 +27.5 +26.7 +29.6 + 20.9 +21.3 -3.7 -2.6 o n 3.3 3.7 + 9*5 ? + 20.5 +16.0 4.9? n 7.1 6.3 -4-93 A +19.4 (NA) £, "7 ? Q + 25.1 +14.7 +13.3 + 29.6 + 13.2 + 12.2 +73.9 +169.6 +76.3 +157.3 +34.9 +44.1 + 22.4 +15.1 + 22.6 + 16.2 +15.7 +9.9 +3.6 2 -8.7 -3.6 2 -0.9 -14.2 -18.9 2 2 11.9 2 5.5 2 4.1 25.4 20.0 2 3.2 1.9 3.2 11.2 1.1 2 2 3 3 3.6 2.6 4.2 5.1 NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)of T or "2" (series41,43,47,52,and816), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C. *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list"of 25 indicators. NA=Not available. 1 The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p.670. Based on average for the calendar year. 3 Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table "because of change in series used. ^World War II contraction or expansion period. 5 Korean War contraction or expansion period. 6 The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items. 1961 2 Source: 74 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for: (a) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (& series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Jan. Year Feb. Apr. Mar. 40. 1945 .... 1946 .... 1947 .... 1948 .... 1949 .... ... 1950 .... 1951 .... 1952 .... 1953 1954 .... ... ... ... ... 2.4 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 .... 3.3 2.5 2.6 • *• 4.1 ... ... ... ... ••• ... ... ... ... ... ... ... •.. . .» .. . .. . ... ... .. . 1.6 1.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 5.7 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 5.8 3.1 ... .•• • •• ... ... ... ... .. . ... .. . ... ... ... 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.7 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.3 5.1 3.7 3.3 2.5 2.6 5.5 3.2 ... ... ... ... ... 1960 1961 .... 1962 .... 1963 .... 1964 .... 4.7 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.9 4.8 3.3 3.7 3.0 3.6 4.8 3.6 3.6 2.9 3.4 4.9 3.7 3.4 2.8 3.4 5.1 3.5 3.4 2.6 3.6 4.8 3.7 3.2 2.8 1965 .... 1966 .... 2.7 1.9 2.6 1.9 2.5 1.9 2.5 1.8 2.5 1.8 2.3 1.9 3.3 42. NOTE: Aug. Sept. Nov. Oct. Dec. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (Percent) .•• . •. • *. ... ... 2.4 4.6 4.0 4.0 July June May .. . ... — ... ... 1.7 1.4 1.5 3.6 3.3 2.4 2.9 2.6 5.7 3.3 2.5 2.4 2.7 5.7 3.4 2.5 2.7 3.0 5.1 3.7 2.6 2.6 3.1 4.9 3.9 2.4 2.8 3.5 4.5 4.2 2.3 2.8 3.7 4.5 3.3 3.7 4.8 3.6 3.2 2.7 3.9 4.7 3.7 3.0 2.6 3.9 4.6 3.5 3.0 2.8 4.4 4.2 3.5 3.0 2.9 4.4 4.1 3.6 3.3 2.4 4.7 3.9 3.6 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.5 1.9 2.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (Thous.) 49,984 50,385 50,500 50,186 50,338 50,035 50,734 49,836 50,713 49,485 51,152 49,370 51,366 49,169 50,894 49,793 50,648 50,287 50,761 50,455 50,793 50,512 50,756 50,466 50,570 52,808 53,312 54,958 53,951 50,694 52,923 53,442 55,421 54,073 50,612 53,543 53,440 55,590 53,791 51,319 53,167 53,384 55,082 54,043 51,372 53,436 53,861 55,082 53,698 51,767 53,091 53,690 55,095 53,630 51,875 53,555 53,637 55,130 53,421 52,549 53,204 53,616 54,832 53,766 52,583 53,155 53,984 54,708 53,829 52,432 53,374 53,769 54,797 54,028 52,534 53,137 54,239 54,393 54,423 52,669 53,432 54,593 54,048 54,268 54,640 57,163 57,842 57,389 58,387 54,873 57,061 58,131 57,244 58,219 54,722 57,190 58,441 57,170 58,590 55,152 57,154 58,211 57,029 58,875 55,307 57,486 57,986 57,227 58,909 55,538 57,485 58,194 57,240 59,137 56,075 57,480 58,139 57,220 59,447 56,222 57,692 58,061 57,339 59,402 56,131 57,704 58,393 57,728 59,323 56,263 57,838 58,171 57,912 59,556 56,602 57,799 57,983 57,899 59,048 57,031 58,102 57,885 58,028 59,883 59,889 60,356 61,016 62,188 63,727 60,179 60,118 61,252 62,378 64,199 59,714 60,444 61,339 62,641 64,410 60,488 60,341 61,344 62,980 64,892 60,702 60,352 61,728 62,853 65,035 60,750 60,775 61,731 63,015 64,671 60,367 60,455 61,643 63,204 64,761 60,375 60,486 62,102 63,305 64,888 60,512 60,520 62,325 63,52^ 64,957 60,177 60,716 62,293 63,589 65,020 60,596 61,009 62,010 63,586 65,267 60,155 60,925 62,297 63,576 65,532 65,774 68,185 65,847 68,179 66,145 68,192 66,165 68,375 66,274 68,488 66,600 68,772 67,056 68,943 66,984 69,230 66,957 69,264 67,243 69,515 67,641 69,915 67,922 69,828 Series 40 includes data for January-October 1954 December 1962. (not previously shown) and scattered revisions beginning with Data for series 42 include scattered revisions beginning in 1955. (February 1968) 75 Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for: r a) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, fb) series which have been revised recently, and Cc) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index. Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ^(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Year Jan. Feb. Apr. Mar. June May 43. 3.6 6.7 3.9 6.8 3.8 6.6 3.7 7.9 3.8 6.4 4.0 6.6 5.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 5.9 5.4 3.2 3.0 2.5 5.6 5.0 3.1 3.2 2.6 5.8 4.5 3.1 3.4 2.7 6.0 4.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 6.1 4.2 3.5 3.0 3.1 5.7 4.2 3.5 2.8 3.5 5.3 4.3 3.1 2.7 4.5 5.0 4.7 4.0 3.9 7.4 5.2 4.3 4.3 4.1 7.4 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 7.3 5.0 4.0 4.4 4.2 7.5 5.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 7.4 5.2 4.1 3.9 4.4 7.1 5.5 4.3 3.9 4.5 6.7 5.7 4.2 4.3 5.1 6.2 5.8 4.2 4.2 5.2 6.2 5.3 5.4 6.9 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.2 7.0 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.1 7.1 5.5 5.9 5.1 5.4 6.9 5.5 5.6 5.2 5.5 7.0 5.4 5.6 5.0 5.6 6.6 5.7 5.4 5.0 5.5 6.7 5.6 5.5 5.1 6.1 6.5 5.4 5.5 5.2 6.1 6.1 5.7 5.7 4.8 6.6 6.0 5.5 5.5 4.9 4.7 3.8 4.8 3.7 4.6 3.9 4.6 3.8 4.4 3.8 4.4 3.8 4.4 3.8 4.3 3.8 4.1 3.6 4.0 3.7 3^9 5.3 3.5 6.1 6.5 3.7 3.2 2.9 4.9 6.4 3.4 3.1 2.6 5.2 6.3 3.4 2.9 2.6 5.7 5.8 3.1 2.9 2.7 5.9 1955 .... 1956 .... 1957 .... 1958 .... 1959 .... 4.9 4.0 4.2 5.8 6.0 4.7 3.9 3.9 6.4 5.9 4.6 4.2 3.7 6.7 5.6 1960 .... 1961 .... 1962 .... 1963 .... 1964 .... 5.2 6.6 5.8 5.7 5.5 4.8 6.9 5.5 5.9 5.4 1965 .... 1966 .... 4.8 3.9 5.0 3.7 1950 .... 1951 .... 1952 .... 1953 .... 1954 .... ... 3.6 6.2 4.0 5.0 3.4 4.3 Dec. ... .. . ... 3.8 4.7 . ... ... Nov. ... .. . ... ... ... .... . •. Oct. Sept. Aug. Unemployment rate, total (Percent) ... ... ... 1945 .... 1946 .... 1947 .... 1948 .... 1949 .... July 301. ... ... ... .. . ... ... ... ... Nonagricultural job openings, unfilled (Thous.) 1945.... 1946.... 1947 .... 1948.... 1949 .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 435 309 161 427 291 146 397 270 138 364 279 136 333 265 132 306 263 124 298 253 120 309 240 115 319 240 107 480 322 234 99 464 321 208 104 469 324 178 108 1950.... 1951.... 1952 1953 1954.... 116 276 290 301 156 122 295 285 301 153 124 306 273 302 149 127 298 281 293 143 136 302 275 284 134 149 293 270 274 140 177 284 268 257 146 226 273 277 237 137 207 275 304 219 134 221 278 316 197 137 218 282 313 185 149 240 297 310 170 156 1955.... 1956 .... 1957 .... 1958.... 1959.... 160 242 258 147 175 167 236 246 144 182 172 236 236 137 193 178 236 227 139 197 186 239 215 140 205 184 243 212 144 205 198 240 209 153 205 212 243 194 153 207 218 249 186 144 209 231 266 175 159 207 230 252 161 169 210 233 255 147 172 213 1960.... 1961.... 1962 .... 1963 .... 1964.... 212 163 221 214 232 211 165 224 219 231 206 172 230 218 230 200 164 236 216 233 193 171 237 211 238 184 181 232 221 241 182 187 232 225 240 176 193 225 222 239 165 198 221 219 246 171 206 219 216 252 171 213 209 223 259 178 222 213 226 254 1965.., 1966.., 263 383 265 401 269 425 277 431 285 426 288 424 298 428 316 424 333 438 345 429 353 414 374 404 NOTE: Data for series 43 include scattered revisions beginning in I960. Series 301 includes data for October 1946 through October 1949 November 1949. (not previously shown) and revisions beginning with (February 76 1968) Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for: (a^ new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, f b) series which have been revised recently, and ftf series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Year Jan. Feb. Apr. Mar. 502. June May July Sept. Aug. Nov. Oct. Dec. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Percent) ... ... ... 1945 .... 1946 .... 1947 .... 1948 .... 1949 .... ... ... • 0.5 0.5 • ... .. • ... ... ... ... .. . ... ... ... ... 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 1.4 0.5 1.5 0*.5 1.6 0.5 1.6 0.5 1.7 0.5 1.6 1950 .... 1951 .... 1952 .... 1953 .... 1954 .... 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.3 1955 .... 1956 .... 1957 .... 1958 .... 1959 .... 1.4 0.8 0.8 1.3 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.8 2.1 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.8 2.2 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 2.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 2.6 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.8 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 2.6 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.0 2.5 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.9 1.1 2.2 1.3 1960 .... 1961 .... 1962 .... 1963 .... 1964 .... 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 2.4 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 2.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 2.3 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.4 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.2 1965 .... 1966 .... 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 511. O.o Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (Bil. man-hours) 1945 .... 1946 .... 1947 .... 1948 .... 1949 92.18 93.78 92.64 92.05 93.30 92.40 91^99 93.76 91.60 91.24 92.67 91.10 91.79 93.52 90.75 92.07 94.19 90.07 91.56 94.44 89.70 91.82 94.35 89.79 92.62 94.31 89.89 93.04 93.93 88.23 93.24 94.00 88.86 93.82 93.71 89.31 1950 .... 1951 .... 1952 .... 1953 1954 .... 89.56 99.12 100.93 104.27 100.84 89.13 99.31 101.31 104.68 101.29 90.88 99.71 100.91 105.05 100.85 91.42 100.26 100.45 104.93 100.52 92.73 100.10 100.99 104.53 99.92 93.86 100.13 100.10 104.54 99.93 94.82 100.18 99.61 104.40 99.76 96.76 99.82 101.12 103.80 99.67 96.65 99.52 102.94 102.81 99.64 97.20 99.35 103.16 103.63 100.15 97.87 99.98 103.40 102.55 101.30 97.67 100.40 104.43 102.05 101.56 1955 .... 1956 1957 1958 1959 101.70 107.23 108.11 105.30 106.68 102.27 107.51 108.88 103.54 106.86 103.44 107.02 108.70 103.13 107.76 103.57 107.84 108.11 102.40 108.75 104.77 107.52 108.14 102.46 109.31 104.91 107.82 107.94 102.58 109.56 105 . 20 106.58 108.04 102.83 109.28 105.43 107.85 108.12 103.43 108.34 106.09 107.90 107.48 104.46 108.06 106.30 108.48 106.46 104.46 107.94 106.81 108.69 106.08 105.52 108.40 107.27 109.01 105.88 105.80 110.06 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 110.36 108.13 110.04 113.55 115.02 110.52 108.25 111.55 113.73 116.70 110.17 108.17 112.25 113.93 117.14 110.70 108.04 112.76 114.63 117.30 110.41 108.72 112.89 114.84 117.54 110.27 109.23 113.03 115.17 117.81 110.25 109.69 113.05 115.28 118.13 110.15 109.98 113.18 115.35 118.43 109.57 109.54 113.68 115.78 118.45 109.40 110.35 113.06 116.16 118.76 108.79 111.21 113.50 116.09 119.97 107.21 111.06 113.38 116.26 121.01 1965 .... 1966 121.18 126.73 121.93 127.89 122.43 128.71 122.24 128.23 122.85 128.27 122.87 129.52 123.28 129.45 124.07 130.00 124.06 129.86 124.71 130.52 125.70 131.11 126.50 131.13 NOTE: ... Series 502 includes scattered revisions beginning in 1962. Series 511 is revised beginning with January 1947. (February 1968) 77 Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for: fa) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, fb) series which have been revised recently, and f& series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the sym bo I ®(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Year Jan. Feb. 855. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. R a t i o , nonagri cultural job openings u n f i l l e d to number of persons unemployed ( R a t i o ) 1945 .... 1946 .... 1947 .... 1948 .... 1949 .... 0.152 0.062 0.125 0.051 0.113 0.046 0.117 0.042 0.125 0.036 0.119 0.033 0.114 0.029 0.102 0.027 0.104 0.026 0.104 0.020 0.091 0.026 0.073 0.027 1950 .... 1951 .... 1952 .... 1953 .... 1954 .... 0.029 0.120 0.147 0.164 0.051 0.031 0.139 0.146 0.184 0.046 0.032 0.144 0.151 0.183 0.041 0.036 0.155 0.155 0.170 0.038 0.040 0.163 0.148 0.178 0.036 0.044 0.147 0.143 0.171 0.039 0.057 0.146 0.135 0.155 0.040 0.081 0.141 0.133 0.142 0.036 0.075 0.133 0.157 0.120 0.034 0.084 0.127 0.172 0.100 0.037 0.084 0.129 0.180 0.084 0.044 0.091 0.152 0.186 0.060 0.049 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 .... .... .... .... .... 0.051 0.091 0.092 0.038 0.043 0.056 0.091 0.094 0.033 0.046 0.059 0.085 0.094 0.030 0.051 0.058 0.089 0.087 0.028 0.055 0.068 0.084 0.079 0.028 0.059 0.068 0.084 0.074 0.029 0.060 0.075 0.081 0.075 0.030 0.058 0.076 0.090 0.071 0.030 0.058 0.081 0.094 0.063 0.030 0.055 0.082 0.103 0.058 0.035 0.053 0.083 0.088 0.047 0.040 0.052 0.084 0.091 0.042 0.041 0.058 1960 .... 1961 .... 1962 .... 1963 .... 1964 .... 0.059 0.035 0.054 0.053 0.058 0.063 0.034 0.058 0.052 0.059 0.055 0.035 0.059 0.054 0.058 0.055 0.034 0.060 0.053 0.060 0.054 0.034 0.061 0.050 0.063 0.049 0.037 0.060 0.055 0.063 0.047 0.038 0.061 0.055 0.066 0.045 0.041 0.056 0.057 0.065 0.042 0.042 0.056 0.055 0.066 0.040 0.045 0.057 0.054 0.067 0.039 0.050 0.052 0.054 0.073 0.039 0.053 0.055 0.057 0.070 1965 .... 1966 .... 0.074 0.130 0.071 0.143 0.077 0.149 0.078 0.154 0.084 0.145 0.084 0.146 0.090 0.148 0.097 0.146 0.102 0.153 0.108 0.149 0.116 0.152 0.124 0.141 .! ! 857. 1945 .... 1946 .... 1947 .... 1948 .... 1949 .... 1950 ____ 1951 .... 1952 .... 1953 .... 1954 .... 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 ____ .... .... .... .... 1960 .... 1961 ____ 1962 .... 1963 .... 1964 .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. . ... ... 1965 1966 5.6 4.8 5.7 6.1 7.2 8.0 7.7 7.2 7.3 7.7 7.5 NOTE: Vacancy rate in private rental housing (Percent) (u) ... .. . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. . ... 5.4 4.9 6.0 6.7 7.3 8.1 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.5 6.8 ... ... .. . ... ... ... ... ... .. . ... ... ... .. . ... ... ... ... 5.8 5.2 5.8 6.6 ... ... ... ... 7.6 7.9 7.3 7.6 7.7 ... ... ... ... ... 7.2 6.8 ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 5.3 6.0 6.4 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.0 Series 855 is revised beginning w i t h January 1948. Series 857 is revised beginning w i t h 1st quarter 1956 (February 1968) 78 ... ... ... ... INDEX SERIES FINDING GUIDE (PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles) Series titles by economic process and other groupings (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Timing classification Charts Appendixes Tables Page Issue I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT *1. *30. 2. 5. 3. 301. 46. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg. Nonagricultural placements, all indus Accession rate, manufacturing Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance Layoff rate, manufacturing Nonagri. job openings unfilled Help-wanted advertising L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... C ... C ... 9 9 9 9 9 17 17 33 33 33 33 33 38 38 511. *41. 42. *43. 45. 40. *502. Man-hours in nonagri.establishments Employees in nonagri. establishments Total nonagricultural employment Unemployment rate, total Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State Unemployment rate, married males Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over C ... C... C ... C ... C ... C ... Lg.... 17 17 17 18 18 ig 22 38 38 38 38 38 38 41 C ... C ... C ... C ... C ... C ... C ... C ... 18 18 IS 19 19 19 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 66-7 66-7 68 68 77 66 76 66 76 76 76 73 73 73 68 66-7 66-7 66-7 68 68 68 68 68 68 69 74 74 Oct. '67 Oct. '631 Sept. '67 July '631 Sept. !67 Feb. '68 Dec. '67 77 77 75 76 76 75 77 Feb. Oct. Feb. Feb. Dec. Feb. Feb. '68 '67 '68 '68 '67 '68 '68 73 73 77 74 74 77 74 72 July July Dec. July July Apr. July Apr. '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '66 II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE 49. *50. *47. *52. 53. *816. 57. *54. GNP in current dollars .. GNP in 1958 dollars Industrial production Personal income Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., constr. Manufacturing and trade sales Final sales Sales of retail stores 19 19 66-7 66-7 66-7 66-7 66-7 70 70 68 68 68 68 70 68 74 74 74 74 74 74 III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT *38. 13. *6. 94. *10. 11. 24. Index of net business formation New business incorporations New orders, durable goods industries Construction contracts, value Contracts and orders, plant and equipment New capital appropriations, mfg New orders, mach. and equip, industries L L L L L L L ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10 10 10 10 10 n 11 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 9. 7. *29. 96. 97. *61. 505. Construction contracts, comm. and indus Private nonfarm housing starts New building permits, private housing Unfilled orders, durable goods industries Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend L ... L ... L ... C ... C ... Lg... Lg- - - n n 11 20 20 22 22 34 34 34 40 40 41 41 L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... L ... Lg... Lg... 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 22 22 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 41 41 66-7 66-7 66-7 66-7 66-7 74 66 78 June '65 Aug. '631 June '67 78 76 75 May '67 Aug. '67 Dec. '67 68 68 68 70 70 69 78 76 74 78 77 65 78 May Aug. June Dec. Aug. June Nov. 72 71 68 71 68 68 71 69 69 72 72 68 75 65 75 76 73 72 68 68 68 68 70 73 '67 '67 '65 '67 '67 '64 '67 IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT 21. *31. 37. 20. 26. 32. 25. *71. 65. Change in business inventories Change, mfg. and trade inventories Purchased materials, higher inventories Change, mtls. and supplies inventories Buying policy, production materials Vendor performance, slower deliveries Change in unfilled orders, durable goods Book value, mfg. and trade inventories Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value *Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. 66-7 66-7 i = leading C = roughly coincident, Lg= lagging. x 73 July '67 Nov. '66 June '631 Dec. '67 June '64 Jan. '68 Dec. '67 Apr. '67 Apr. '67 Appendix G in this issue. 79 SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued (PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles) Timing classification Series titles by economic process and other groupings (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Charts 1 Tables 2 1 2 3 Appendixes 4 B C D F E Page Issue 75 76 77 72 73 71 72 73 72 75 75 73 Dec. Apr. Oct. V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS *23 *19. 19. *16. 22 18 *17. 55. 58 68. *62. 81. Industrial materials prices. . Stock prices, 500 common stocks (1941-43= 10) Stock prices, 500 common stocks (1957-59 = 100) Corporate profits after taxes Ratio profits to income originating corporate Profits per dollar of sales mfg Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg Wholesale price index, industrial commodities. Wholesale price index, manufactured goods Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfin. corporations Labor cost per unit of output, mfg Consumer prices L 13 L ... 13 6 6 Lg... Lg. .. U ... 32 14 14 14 14 20 20 23 23 24 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 36 36 48 36 36 36 36 40 40 42 42 43 L 15 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 40 40 40 40 40 42 42 42 42 L. . . L ... L L .. . L ... C ... c 66-7 66-7 68-9 66-7 66-7 66-7 68 68 70 70 70 70 68 68 68 70 69 69 73 July July Apr. July Feb. Apr. July July Feb. '67 '64 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 VI. MONEY AND CREDIT 98 85 33 *113 112 110 14 39. 93 114 116 115 117. 66 *72. *67. 118 Change money supply and time deposits Change total U S money supply Change mortgage debt Change consumer installment debt . . . Change business loans ^ Total private borrowing2 Liabilities of business failures Delinquency rate, instal. loans, 30 days and over Free reserves Treasury bill rate 2 Corporate bond yields 2 Treasury bond yields 2 Municipal bond yields 2 Consumer installment debt . Comm. and Indus, loans outstanding Bank rates on short-term business loans Mortgage yields, residential2 L . . . 15 L . . . 15 L 15 L . . . 15 L . . . 16 L 16 L ... 16 c . .. C .. . c . . . - 66-7 - 71 71 71 71 71 70 68 68 C .. . C ... Lg . Lg. .. Lg... Lg. .. 21 21 21 21 21 23 23 23 23 U U U U U U U ... ... ... . .. .. . 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 72 72 71 69 69 69 69 U U U U U .. . ... ... ... u •. U .. . u ••• u ... 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 72 72 70 70 70 69 69 69 69 u ... u ... u... u .. . u... u... u... u... 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 70 69 69 69 70 69 69 70 - 66-7 66-7 71 68 68 68 68 69 69 70 69 77 76 71 78 75 73 66 71 73 73 73 73 Sept. '67 Sept. '67 Apr. '67 Dec. '67 Apr. '67 Feb. '67 1 Nov. '63 Apr. '67 76 71 72 76 77 77 73 75 77 '68 July '64 Aug. '66 Jan. '68 Jan. '68 Dec. '67 Apr. '67 Jan. '68 Jan. '68 79 79 74 73 77 78 74 June '67 June ' 67 Apr. '67 Apr. '67 Apr. '67 Apr. '67 Apr. '67 73 76 78 78 78 76 78 77 66 76 July '67 '67 '67 '67 July '67 Dec. '67 Dec. '67 Oct. '64 Aug. '67 July July July July July 73 73 77 77 77 78 78 78 79 78 73 Jan. VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS 89. U.S. balance of payments: a. Liquidity balance basis b. Official settlements basis 88. Merchandise trade balance 86. Exports excluding military aid 861. Export orders, durable goods, except motor vehicles 862 Export orders nonelectric machinery 87 General imports 73 VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES 95 84 83. 82. 101. 91 Fed balance nat'l income and prod account Federal cash surplus or deficit Federal cash receipts from public Federal cash payments to public National defense purchases current dollars Defense Department obligations total 99 New orders defense products industries 92 Military contract awards in U S 73 73 Oct. Oct. Oct. U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION 850 851 852. 853 854. 855. 856 857 Ratio output to capacity mfg Ratio inventories to sales mfg. and trade Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments durable goods Ratio prod of bus equipment to consumer goods Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income . . Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to unemployed. . . . Ratio avg earnings to consumer prices Vacancy rate in total rental housing T '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 Feb. '68 July '67 Feb. '68 *Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. L=leading, C=roughly coincident, Lg=lagging, U= unclassified ("other selected U.S. series/ "U.S. series under consideration" and "international comparisons"). L Appendix G in this issue. 2 A description of this series is contained in the July 1964 issue of BCD (appendix G). 80 SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued (PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles) Series titles by economic process and other grouping (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Timing classification Charts Tables Appendixes Page Issue INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS 123. 122. 126. 125. 128. 121. 127. Canada index of industrial production United Kingdom, index of industrial production France, index of industrial production West Germany, index of industrial production Japan, index of industrial production OECD-Europe, index of industrial production Italy, index of industrial production U U U U U U U 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 76 77 78 77 68 77 78 July Nov. Nov. Nov. Oct. Nov. Nov. '67 '67 '67 '67 '64 '67 '67 133. 132. 136. 135. 138. 137. Canada, index of consumer prices United Kingdom, index of consumer prices France, index of consumer prices West Germany, index of consumer prices Japan, index of consumer prices Italy, index of consumer prices U U U U U U 31 31 31 31 31 31 47 47 47 47 47 47 79 79 80 79 80 Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. T 143. 142. 146. 145. 148. 147. Canada, index of stock prices United Kingdom, index of stock prices France, index of stock prices West Germany, index of stock prices Japan, index of stock prices Italy, index of stock prices U .U U U U U 32 32 32 32 32 32 48 48 48 48 48 48 81 81 82 81 82 82 Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 83 72 77 69 72 72 73 Oct. Apr. Aug. Oct. Apr. Apr. May '67 '65 '67 '64 '65 '65 '65 79 73 78 73 70 70 68-9 Nov. Apr. Apr. Apr. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '67 '65 '67 '65 '64 '64 '64 '64 69 69 69 69 69 69 67 '67 '67 '67 '67 '67 DIFFUSION INDEXES Dl. D6. Dll. D34. Average workweek New orders Capital appropriations Profits, mfg - 51 51 51 51 - 51 D23. Industrial materials prices D5. Initial claims - 51 51 54 54 54 55 55 55 55 D41. D47. D58. D54. D35. D36. D48. D61. - 52 52 52 52 53 53 53 53 56 56 56 56 57 57 57 57 D19. Stock prices ... Employees in nonagri. establishments Industrial production Wholesale prices, mfg Retail sales Net sales, mfrs New orders Freight carloadings New plant and equipment expenditures 73 59 60 60 61 61 62 63 unclassified ("other selected U.S. series," "U.S. series under consideration," and "international comparisons"). 81 The boundaries and numbers of congressional districts for the 90th Congress (1967-1968) are shown on this colorful reference map issued by the Bureau of the Census. Printed on a single sheet (30 x 42 inches) and using a scale of 1:5,000,000," this map also shows the names and boundaries of States and counties. Of particular interest are the boundaries for districts in 24 States that redistricted for the new Congress. This map is No. 11 in the Census Bureau series, GE-50, United States Maps. All GE-50 maps are available from the Superintendent of Documents at 500 each. FOR THE W CONGRESS OTHER TITLES IN GE-50 SERIES No. 1—Population, Urban and Rural, in the United States: 1960; No. 2—Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas of the United States and Puerto Rico: 1962; No. 3—Congressional Districts for the 89th Congress (1965-1966); No. 4—Housing Built Before and After 1950 in Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas of the United States: 1960; No. 5—Housing Owned and Rented in Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas of the United States: 1960; No. 6— Families With Incomes Under $3,000 in 1959, By Counties of the United States: 1960; No. 7—Older Americans in the United States, By Counties: 1960; No. 8—Per Capita Money Income for 1959, By Counties of the United States; No. 9—Population with High School Education or More, By Counties of the United States: 1960; No. 10-—Youths of 16 and 17 years of Age in School, By Counties of the United States: 1960; No. 12—Employment in Manufacturing, By Counties of the United States: 1960; No. 13—Employment in Professional, Technical, and Kindred Occupations, By Counties of the United States: 1960. To: ORDER FORM Superintendent of Documents Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 Enclosed is $ (check, money order, GPO coupons. OR charge to Deposit Account No. Please send copies of GE-50, United States Maps (500 each) as indicated below: No. No. No. No. 1234- No. No. 6No. 7No. 8- No. 9No. 10No. 11No. 12- No. For use of Supt. Docs _ Enclosed To be mailed _ later Refund Coupon refund Postage 13- Name AddressCity -State- -ZIP- Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series; U Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter). The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in which a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus, "(M, II)" indicates a monthly series classified in group II. The general classification follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. 36 Leading Indicators *1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M,I). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census • *6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M,III).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M,lll).~Depart ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings,floor space (M,III).--F.W Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. * 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F.W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q,lll).-National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total 13. Number of new business incorporations (M,III).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,VI). Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. *16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q,V).--Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission, seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,V).-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories uf materials and supplies (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (_Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *23. Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M.lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *47. Index of industrial production (M,II).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,II).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M,IV).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment *52. Personal income (M,II).-Department of Commerce,, Office of Business Economics *29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M, 11).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M,I). Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *54. Sales of retail stores (M,ll).«Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and Bureau of the Census 32, Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M,IV.),.-Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M,VI).-Institute of Life Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association, National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and Loan League, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M,IV).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *38. Index of net business formation (M,lll).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM,VI).-American Bankers Association: seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964) 85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M,VI).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M,III).-F.W. Dodge Corporation 98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M,VI). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q,VI). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment 57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (NI,V).~ Department of Labor,, Bureau of Labor Statistics, no seasonal adjustment 93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrow ings) (M,VI). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 96.Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ,III). National Industrial Conference Board, component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,VI).-Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M,VI).First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20~bond average (M,VI). The Bond Buyer; no seasonal adjustment 301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM,I). Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments, (M,l).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *816. Manufacturing and trade sales (M,II).-Department of Commerce,, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census 112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M,VI). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 25 Roughly Coincident Indicators 40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M,I) Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics ; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,l).~ Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *43. Unemployment rate, total (M,l) Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the. Census 11 Lagging Indicators *61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q,III).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM,IV).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M,I).-Department of Labor. Bureau of Employment Security 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (!Y1,I). National Industrial Conference Board Continued on reverse UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES P A I D DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING O F F I C E WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS FIRST CLASS MAIL Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Continued *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q,VI).~ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations (ratio of current-dollar compensation of employees to gross corporate product in 1958 dollars) (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National Income Division *71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total (EOM,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages(IHI,VI).--Federal Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment *502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M,l).~Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 505. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M,lll).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 16 Other Selected U.S. Series 81. Index of consumer prices (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment 82. Federal cash payments to the public (Q,Vlll).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget 83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Q,VIII).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget 84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Q,VIII).--Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget 86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M,VII).~ Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 87. General imports, total (M,VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 99. New orders, defense products industries (M,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) 101. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics ... United States, index of industrial production (!V!,ll).-See series 47 861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicles and parts (M,VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; no seasonal adjustment 132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).--Ministry of Labour (London); no seasonal adjustment 862. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M,V|I).~ McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).--Domini on Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment 8 U.S. Series Under Consideration 850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. (Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Economics Department 851. Ratio, inventories (BCD series 71) to sales (BCD series 816), manufacturing and trade total (M).- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 852. Ratio, unfilled orders (BCD series 96) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (M).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (index: 1957-59 = 100) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial production.) 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Q).-Departmentof Commerce, Office of Business Economics 855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (BCD series 301) to number of persons unemployed (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing to consumer prices (BCD series 81) (M).~ Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M,VIII).~ Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 91. Defense Department obligations, total (M,VIII).~Depaftment of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions (M,VIII).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 95. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product account (Q,VIII).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 136. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no seasonal adjustment 137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M)Hstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); no seasonal adjustment 138. Japan, index of consumer prices (tVI).~Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment . . . United States, index of consumer prices (M,V).- See Series 81 142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).--The Financial Times (London); no seasonal adjustment 143. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment 145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal, adjustment 146. France, index of stock prices (M).--lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no seasonal adjustment 147. Italy, index of stock prices (M).~lstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); no seasonal adjustment 148. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock Exchange (Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment . . . United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,V).-See series 19 857. Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental housing units as a percent of total rental housing (Q).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M,VII).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments (Q,VII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).--Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment Diffusion Indexes 19 International Comparisons 121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M).~ Organizafion for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--Central Statistical Office (London) 123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).-Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa) 125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonally adjusted by OECD 126. France, index of industrial production (M).~lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) 127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).»lstituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome) For Index-Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue. The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above for DI, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, and 061. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows: D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment D48. Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment