Full text of Business Conditions Digest : February 1968
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
bed
DEVELOPMENTS
February 1968
DATA THROUGH JANUARY
S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Jh\$ report was prepared in the Economic
Research and Analysis Division under the
direction of Jttiius Shiskm, Chief. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications for
computer processing,
Gerald F« Donahoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal
adjustment methods,
Betty F. TunstaH—Collection and compilation of baste data.
Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine
Censky of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this report
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Alexander B. Trowbridge, Secretary
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
Subscription price is $7 a year ($1,75 additional for foreign mailing), Single issues are
60 cents;
Airmail delivery is available at an additional
charge. For information about domestic or
foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make
checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents, Send to U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.O/2M02, or to any U.S.
Department of Commerce Field Office.
ABOUT THE COVER—Series in this publication
are grouped according to their usual timing
and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business
activity. The center panel illustrates this
concept, The vertical bar represents a contraction* the fop curve, the Leading Series which
usually fall before a contraction has begun and
rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the
Coincident Series which usually fall with the
contraction period; the bottom curve, the
tagging Series which fall after a contraction
has begun and rise after it ends, Series are also
classified by economic process within each
timing group. Processes are indicated in the
squares bordering the panel.
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic
indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation
and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list
of indicators and their classification into "leading," "roughly coincident,"
and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which
has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years.
The business cycle turning dates are also those designated by NBER. In
addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight
economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special
series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total
of machinery and equipment sales and business construction) have been
constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis.
The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their
cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any
approach to business cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled
by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended
only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide
information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business
conditions.
The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according
to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the
cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in
evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and
contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be
readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted.
About 115 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. (This figure includes 19 foreign series in addition to 96 U.S.
series.) Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source agency.
A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on the back
cover of this report.
February 1968
DATA THROUGH JANUARY
DEVELOPMENTS
CONTENTS
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical
Timing
Background Materials
New Features and Changes for This Issue
3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations
iii
iv
v
vi
Descriptions and Procedures
Introduction
Timing Classification
Economic Process Classification
"Short List" of Indicators
Method of Presentation
Concepts and Procedures
References
,
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
4
Section One—Basic Data
Table
Chart
Chart
Table
Table
1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
6
1A. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
9
IB. Series for International Comparisons From 1948 to Present . . . . 30
2A. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
33
2B. Latest Data for International Comparisons
46
Section Two—Analytical Measures
Chart 2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Table 3. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Table 4. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
51
54
58
For Index—Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.
CONTENTS
Continued
Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United
States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series
65
66
68
73
74
75
Index
Series Finding Guide
79
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
(Minor economic processes and the number of series in each process are shown for each classification. See the index and back cover for series titles)
^\.
Cyclical
\,
Timing
Economic ^-\
Process
\,
1. EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive employment
(3 series).
Comprehensive unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration unemployment
(1 series)
Comprehensive production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive consumption
and trade (3 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment commitments
(8 series)
IV. INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
Sensitive commodity prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit margins
(4 series)
Comprehensive wholesale prices Unit labor costs
(2 series)
(2 series)
Flows of money and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
(11 series)
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
(17 series)
OTHER
SELECTED U.S. SERIES
(16 series)
Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)
Investment expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
Comprehensive retail
prices (1 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans and mortgages
(2 series)
VII. FOREIGN TRADE
AND PAYMENTS
(6 series)
Foreign trade and
payments
(6 series)
VIII. FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
ACTIVITIES
(9 series)
federal Government
activities
(9 serifs)
iii
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
A revised list of indicators was introduced in the April
issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Research work for the revised list was carried out by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER),
a private, nonprofit research organization which has
been preparing lists of economic indicators and research
reports in the field of business cycle analysis for more
than 40 years. This revised list was published by the
National Bureau in March 1967, and is the result of
a periodic review made by that agency of its previous
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity. This
is the third revision of the list originally published by
the National Bureau in 1938.
The method of preparing the new list, the reasons for
adding certain series and dropping others, and an
explanation of the classification system used are described in a new report, INDICATORS OF BUSINESS
EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS, published by
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 261
Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10016. Other reports on the historical studies and methods of making
current interpretations of the indicators are listed in
this book.
The revised list includes some new series, discontinues some of those on the previous list, and has
assigned timing classifications to some series previously
unclassified by timing. The chief features of the new list
follow:
1. The major principle of classification is a fourfold grouping by cyclical timing: Leading, roughly
coincident, and lagging indicators, and other selected
series. The first three categories take into account
timing at both peaks and troughs; the fourth group
includes economic activities that have an important
role in business cycles but have displayed a less
regular relation to them. The new list of indicators
includes 36 leading series, 25 roughly coincident
series, 11 lagging series, and 16 series unclassified
by timing—88 series in all; 69 are monthly and
19 are quarterly. This list includes 13 series not on
the previous NBER list and omits 5 series. In addition, 14 series previously unclassified by timing are
assigned a timing classification.
2. The type of economic process represented by
the series is used as a secondary principle of classification, with emphasis on the processes that are
important for business cycle analysis. The 88 U.S.
series are classified into eight major groups: (I)
Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II)
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8
series; (III) Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series;
(IV) Inventories and Inventory Investment, 9 series;
(V) Prices, Costs, and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money
and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and
Payments, 6 series; and (VIII) Federal Government
Activities, 9 series. Each of these major categories
is subdivided into economic processes that exhibit
rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. For
example, under Fixed Capital Investment, new investment commitments are distinguished from investment expenditures.
3. A short list of 25 indicators, drawn from the
full list, is identified throughout BCD. This more
selective list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident,
and 6 lagging series; 21 are monthly and 4 are
quarterly. The short list involves little of the duplica-
tion in economic coverage that is provided, for
various reasons, in the full list. The series on the
short list are identified by asterisks.
4. Two other groups of series are shown in BCD
in addition to the 88 NBER indicators. They are
"U.S. Series Under Consideration" (eight series not
yet classified by cyclical timing and economic process
but under consideration for the list of indicators)
and "International Comparisons" (19\ series showing
industrial production, consumer prices, and stock
prices for several countries which have important
trade relations with the United States).
Changes in the 1966 list of indicators are as follows
(series identification number and title):
13 series new to the 1966 list:
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book
value
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks
101. National defense purchases
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicle and parts
862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
5 series on the previous list but omitted from the
1966 list:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
*51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York
*64. Manufacturers' inventories, book value
111. Corporate gross savings
10 series specially constructed for business cycle
studies at the suggestion of the NBER:
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies
*38. Index of net business formation
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
*Denotes series included on "short list."
IV
• A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect new
findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series and
to report recent changes made by producing agencies in concept, composition,
comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc.
Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in
placement of series in relation to other series, changes in components of
indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1.—New seasonal adjustment factors for 19 series have
been computed by the X-ll version of Census Seasonal
Adjustment Method II. These factors are shown through
June 1968 in appendix D for all except two of the series
(series 9 and 10). The new seasonal adjustment of the
series on net business formation (series 38) has not been
completed. The results of this adjustment will be published as soon as possible. The table below shows the
beginning month for application of the new factors to
each series. A comparison of the new and old factors
indicates that no revisions were necessary in the seasonal factors for the periods preceding the dates shown.
Series
number
Beginning month
for new factor
Series
number
Beginning month
for new factor
5
13
U
18
30
33
37
39
72
July 1967
July 1967
July 1967
4th quarter 1967
August 1967
May 1967
August 1966
October 1967
December 1967
90
91
92
112
301
856
862
April 1967
May 1967
November 1967
November 1967
October 1946
December 1967
September 1967
D34
2d quarter 1967
2.—The series on vacancy rate in total rental housing
(series 857) is now shown in unadjusted form throughout
the report. A recent study has shown that there is no
appreciable seasonal movement in this series.
3.—Data on employment and unemployment (series 4-0,
42, 4-3, and 502) have been revised throughout the report.
These changes reflect the source agency!s new seasonal
adjustment of the data. Further information concerning
these revisions may be obtained from the Division of
Employment and Unemployment Analysis, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
(Continued on reverse)
The March issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on March 28.
* I H:
4.—The ratio of nonagricultural job openings unfilled to persons unemployed (series 855) has been revised from 1948 to date to reflect the
revisions in component series. (See items 1 and 3.)
5.—The series on man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (series 511)
has been revised from 194-7 to date. This revision reflects the source
agency*s substitution of improved data on average weekly hours for several
of the series components. Further information concerning this revision may
be obtained from the division of Productivity Research, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
6.—The series which include data on manufacturers1 sales and inventories
(series 20, 31, 65, 71, 816, and 851) have been revised for the period
beginning January 1966. These changes reflect the source agency1s modified
estimating procedure, new benchmark, and new seasonal adjustment of data for
textile mill products. Farther information concerning these revisions may
be obtained from the Industry Division, Bureau of the Census.
7.—Revised average changes and related measures for all except three
series (series 14, 38, and 39) have been computed by the X-ll variant of
Census Method II and are shown in appendix C (and in table 1 for Cl).
Revised measures for series 14, 38, and 39 will be shown in a subsequent
issue.
8.—Appendix F includes historical data for series 40, 42, 43, 301, 502,
511, 855, and 857.
VI
DESCRIPTIONS
AND
INTRODUCTION
The business cycle is generally described as consisting
of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in
aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of
activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the
flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many
economists do-not consider it inevitable.
The causal relations among various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions
have eventually turned into recessions and recessions
into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production
and employment are preceded by fluctuations in
measures which relate to future rather than current
production—measures such as new orders for durable
goods, formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest
rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts.
TIMING CLASSIFICATION
On the basis of many years of research, the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has compiled a
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity and has
classified these indicators according to whether they
usually lead, roughly coincide with, or lag behind the
cyclical movements in aggregate activity. The 1966 list,
as issued by the NBER, is the basis for the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Prior to April 1967, their 1960 list was
used. The series have been grouped and classified by
the NBER as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lag-
ging" indicators. These indicators are described as
follows:
Leading Indicators.—Series that usually reach peaks
or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity
as measured by the roughly coincident series (see
below). One group of these series pertains to orders
and contracts, another to inventory investment, and
so on.
Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series that are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move
roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural
employment, industrial production, and retail sales.
Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new plant and
equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after they are
reached in aggregate economic activity.
Also included in BCD are (a) "Other Selected U.S.
Series," economic activities which are important in
analyzing business cycles but have a less consistent
relation to them; (b) "U.S. Series Under Consideration," indicators that measure important economic relationships but have not been classified by economic
process and timing and, therefore, not yet incorporated
into the list of 88 indicators; and (c) indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
several countries which have important trade relations
with the United States.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report
are those designated by the NBER. They mark the
approximate dates when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high (peak) or low (trough) levels.
As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months
after it has occurred. (See appendix A for peak and
trough dates.)
ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION
A secondary principle of classification, economic
process, supplements the timing classification. All series
are cross-classified according to these two principles.
The major economic process categories are employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories' and inventory investment; prices, costs, and
profits; money and credit; foreign trade and payments;
and Federal Government activity.
"SHORT LIST" OF INDICATORS
A short, substantially unduplicated list of principal indicators provides a convenient way of summarizing
the current situation and outlook. The NBER has
identified, for this purpose, a short list of 25. This list
includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging
indicators; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. These
series are identified throughout BCD.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report consists of two major sections as follows:
Basic Data (chart 1, tables 1 and 2).—Data for all
series are shown for the current and prior periods
in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad view
of past and current business cycle fluctuations is
provided.
Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 and 4).—
Measures are presented which help to determine the
magnitude and scope of, current changes in different
processes, industries, and areas, and aid in evaluating
the prospects of a turning point in the business cycle.
A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on
the back cover of this report. The series numbers are
for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES
Several other concepts and procedures used in this
report are summarized below:
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are
often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical
trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency. In addition, for the
special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of
series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally
adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis
in this report. The seasonal adjustment process usually
accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there
are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment
is needed for holidays with variable dates.
Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the
cyclical movements in a monthly series. MCD moving
averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD
of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of
the variation about these moving averages, monthly
data are also plotted.
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures
which express what percentage of the components of an
aggregate series has risen over given time spans. Their
turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate.
Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion
indexes. Many of the component series used to make
up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 4.
During the current expansion, high values for the
indicators are identified in table 2. These values are
not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the
highest values reached to date.
Certain appendix materials are presented regularly
in this report. These materials include historical data,
adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other
information helpful in interpreting trends in the indicators.
REFERENCES
Fuller explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate
economic activity in analyzing current business conditions and prospects may be found in the following
references:
(1) Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes and
First Differences," The Economic Journal,
June 1958, pp. 288-301.
(2) Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes," American Statistician vol. IX, No. 2 (June 1955),
pp. 7-16.
(3) Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C.
Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1946.
(4) Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American
Statistical Association, August 1966, pt. V, pp.
64-75.
(5) Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to
Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National
Bureau," The Review of Economics and Statistics vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August 1962), pp. 284291.
(6) Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators,"
How Business Economists Forecast (William F.
Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt. I, ch. 2,
pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: PrenticeHall, 1966.
(7) Moore, Geoffrey H., Editor, Business Cycle
Indicators. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.
(8) Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions,
Occasional Paper 103. New York: National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1967.
(9) Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of the
National Bureau's Leading Indicators," Business
Cycle Indicators vol. I, ch. 4, pp. 110-119. New
York: National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 1961.
(10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical
Turning Point Predictors," Journal of Business,
April 1960, pp. 101-120.
(11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators: The
Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at
the 34th session of the International Statistical
Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August 24, 1963.
Washington: Bureau of the Census, 1963.
(12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 77. New York:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1961.
HOW TO READ CHARTS 1 AND 2
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER.
CHART 1 - Series
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("3"= March)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Series are
arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by
timing and economic process.
R o m a n number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("11" = second quarter)
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures
or MCD moving averages.*)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
B r o k e n line i n d i c a t e s a c t u a l
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.).
40
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
' series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic
scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic
scale with 2 cycles in that distance,
etc. The scales should be carefully
noted because they show whether
or not the plotted lines for various
series are directly comparable.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components
rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("2" =
February)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2!/2 months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("IV" =
fourth quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups
by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed
by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to
some readers.
Section ONE
DATA
charts and tables
LEADING
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, cosfs, and
Money and credit
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
LAGGING
profits
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production, income, consumption, and trade
fixed capital investment
Prices, cosfs, and profits
Money and credit
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, cosfs, and profits
Money and credit
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Prices, cosfs, and profits
Foreign trade and payments
Federal Government activities
Also U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION (unclassified series) and INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
(indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for selected foreign countries)
Table 1
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Nov.
1967
Oct.
1967
Jan. '67 Jan. '67
to date to date
(with 4 (without5
sign)
sign)
Jan.
1968
Dec.
1967
3
1953 to
1967
(without
sign)5 6
bed
Current percent change3
Oct.
to
Nov.
1967
Nov.
to
Dec.
1967
Dec.
to
Jan.
1968
LEADING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1 Avg workweek prod workers, mfg. ...
*30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted 33 ) .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted ) .
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*38 Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. . .
94. Construction contracts, value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and7 equip. .
11. New capital appropriations, mfg.
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
21. Change in business
inventories, all
industries 7 8
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories 8
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories of materials and supplies8
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer ^5) . . . .
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries u)
25. Change in unfilled8 orders, durable
goods industries
Hours
Thousands
Per 100 employ. .
40.7
474
4.7
r40.8
r476
Thousands
Per 100 employ. .
r209
1.3
r201
40.8
r479
P4.4
P40.5
p498
(NA)
-0.1
-0.5
-0.2
0.4
2.9
4.5
0.5
2.1
4.6
+0.2
+0.4
-4.3
0..0
+0.6
-2.2
-0.7
+4.0
(NA)
1.2
r!98
pl.l
214
(NA)
-0.9
+1.2
7.7
10.8
5.3
9.4
+3.8
+7.7
+1.5
+8.3
-8.1
(NA)
1957-59=100...
110.3
r!8,000
Number
112,*
r 18, 403
113.2
13,168
(NA)
(NA)
+0.9
+0.9
1.1
3.5
0.8
2.5
+2.4
+2.2
+0.3
-1.3
(NA)
(NA)
23.38
Bil. dollars
1957-59=100...
171
5.96
.Bil. dollars
do
do
4.61
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space . . . r58.42
1,478
Ann. rate, thous.
1957-59=100 .. . 106.9
r23.54
168
r5.84
P5.73
r4.79
r26.37
166
r5.85
p2$.14
159
P5.94
P4.91
2.8
6,2
3.2
2.4
3.4
3.6
6.4
4.6
9.3
4.1
+0.7
-1.8
-2.0
-3.9
+3.9
+12.0
r4.92
+1.2
+2.2
+0.9
-0,1
+0.7
r63.17
rl,567
102.2
r64.08
rl,228
rll6.7
64.51
pl,419
p98.0
+2.6
+2.8
+1.7
6.5
7.9
6.2
8.5
7.2
3.9
+8.1 +1.4
+0.7
+6.0 -21.6 +15.6
-4.4 +14.2 -16.0
+0,7
5.1
2.6
+5.4
+0.2
5.4
3.8
+7.1
+2.3
(NA)
+1.5
7.0
6.5
+2.2
+17.4
+1.9
-0.4
1.7
1.5
+0.9
-2.4
(NA)
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
do
r4.5
r+9.2
(NA)
-1.2
+0.2
-4.7
-4.2
+1.5
+2.7
-0.2
r+5,7
r+12.8
p+15.1
r45
r46
r54
r-0.2
r+Q*7
p-1.7
62
63
64
64
-0.9
3.8
5.0
+1.6
+1.6
50
51
48
50
+0,9
7.4
7.4
+2.0
-5.9
Bil. dollars . . .
+1.07
r+0.06
r+1.13
p-1.12
0.85
0.50
1957-59=100...
97.7
99.1
100.1
99.8
-0.6
1.0
1.3
+ 1.4
+1.0
-0.3
.1941-43=10...
95.66
92.66
95.30
95.04
+1.0
1.8
2.5
-3.1
+2.8
-0.3
+0.9
-0.9
Percent
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
Percent .
do
55
(NA)
-0.01
-1.01 +1.07
0.0
+4.2
-2.25
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices ®
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks © . .
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits after taxes 7
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries 7
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.7
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in money supply and time
deposits 8
8
85 Change in U.S. money suoply
33. Change in mortgage debt8
*113. Change in consumer installment
debt8. .
8
112. Chanpe in business loans
110. Totat private borrowing 7
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 3)
39. Delinquency rate, installment3 loans,
30 days and over (inverted )
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
(NA)
+0.6
0.6
5.2
(NA)
Percent
Cents
1957-59=100..
(NA)
(HA)
-1.3
-2.4
-0.2
1.3
2.4
0.5
4.1
5.6
0.6
(NA)
(NA)
-0.1
+6.3
3.69
5.83
2.42
0.76
7.44
6.3
2.49
2.89
1.34
0.86
2.77
11.0
-1.44 -3.36 -2.04
-1.32 -3.96 +5.28
(NA)
+1.05 -2.46
(NA)
+1.29 -0.42
-2.70 +5.73 +4.14
+6.7
-4.8
20.3
18.7
+10.7 -125.1 +39.4
+0.7
4.7
2.6
r99*5
+ 10.08
Ann.rate,percent
+7.32
do
Ann. rate, bil.dol r+ 21.02
do
+3.73
+5.36
do
Ann. rate, mil. do
Mil. dollars ...
Percent
r95.81
rl.66
99.4
+8.64
+6.00
r+22.07
+5.02
r+2.66
p72,672
r85.55
rlOO.3
P99.4
+5.28
p+3.24
p+7.32
+2.04
(NA)
p*19.6l
(NA)
+4.60
r+8.39 p+12.53
1-192.56
1.74
116.62
-0.37
+0.67
+0.78
+0.11
+0.54
\
-4.8
Table 1
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Average percent change2 3
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Job Vacancies:
301 Nonagri job openings until led
46. Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
511. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments...
Unit of
measure
Thousands
1957-59=100..
Oct.
1967
r360
186
Nov.
1967
r352
187
Dec.
1967
r345
190
Jan.
1968
Jan. '67 1953 to
1967
to date
(without
(without
5
sign)
sign)5 6
Oct.
to
Nov.
1967
Nov.
to
Dec.
1967
Dec.
to
Jan.
1968
-0.7
-0.2
2.7
2.3
3.1
3.0
-2.2
+0.5
-2.0
+1.6
+3.5
-3.2
+0.1
+0.2
+0.1
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
+1.5
+1.0
+0.2
-0.2
+0.3
+0.3
-0.7
+0.1
-0.3
+0.3
3.4
3.8 +11.6
+2.6
+5.4
-0.1
+0.4
4.7
4.1
4.2
5.9
0.0
+10.5
+4.3
0.0
-4.5
+5.9
+1.8
+0.9
+0.2
1.8
0.9
0.6
1.5
1.2
1.0
+2.0
+1.1
+1.7
+1.4
-0.4
+0.5
+0.4
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.8
+1.0
+1.9
+1.1
+1.2
+0.3
+0.3
+0.6
+1.7
+0.5
1.2
1.7
1.1
1.0
1.4
0.9
+2.8
+1.4
+1.2
+2.8
(NA)
0.0
+2.9
+0.3
+0.6
0.9
0.9
1.4
5.4
+0.1
+1.4
+0.7
-1.4
+0.1
+0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
+0.3
+0.1
+0.3
+0.4
+0.3
+0.5
-13
77
93
-110
+163
-31
+0.9
+1.5
+1.4
+1.6
6.0
2.9
2.3
2.4
6.4
1.8
1.7
2.5
+3.7
+5.2
+4.8
+0.9
+5,3
+0.9
-1.5
+2.1
+1.4
-5.2
-3.4
-3.2
0.0
0.0
6.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
+0.2
1.0
3.1
+1.9
(NA)
+0.2
1.7
1.8
+1.5
+3.1
(NA)
(NA)
+0.3
0.3
0.5
+0.8
+0.9
(NA)
(NA)
+0.5
0.7
0.6
+0.9
+1.3
(NA)
P357
p!84
Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours ... r 132. 35 r 134. 37 r!34.10 P133.21
*41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . . Thousands
66,243 r66,9!8 r67,110 p67,146
do
42. Total nonagricultural employment
71,164
r71,017 r71,l66 r71,36l
Comprehensive Unemployment:
r3.8
3.7
3.5
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 3). . . Percent
4.3
45. Avg. weekly insured
unemploy. rate,
3
2.2
do
2.3
2.3
State (inverted )
2.3
1.6
1.7
1.7
do
40. Unemployment rate, married males (inv3)
1.9
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production: 7
49. GNP in current dollars
Ann.rate,bil.doL
r807.3
do
r679.6
*50. GNP in 1958 dollars 7
rl6l.8 pl6l.2
1957-59-100..
*47. Industrial production
rl56.9 r!59.5
Comprehensive Income:
Ann. rate, bil. dol. 635.9
p651.2
*52. Personal income
r649.3
642.4
165.2
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr .
do
p!70.9
168.4
r!70.4
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
(NA)
Mil. dollars... rB7,807 r90,235 p92,772
*816. Manufacturing
and trade sales
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
57. Final sales7
r798.1
Mil. dollars...
*54. Sales of retail stores
26,089 r 26, 411 r26,402 p27,176
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
r78.40
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus. .9 . Bil. dollars...
r79.53
78.34
p78.41
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.
p20 . 77
do
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
106.8
55. Wholesale pr ices, indus . commod.® . . . 1957-59-100..
107.7
107.1
107.4
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
108.1
107.6
107.2
107.1
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank Reserves:
Mil. dollars...
+270
93 Free reserves 8 (inverted3)©
p+138
+160
r+107
Money Market Interest Rates:
5.08
5.01
4.76
Per cent
114. Treasury bill rate®
4.59
do
6.57
6.87
116. Corporate bond yields ®
6.53
6.93
oo
5.18
5.36
115. Treasury bond yields®
5.44
5.19
... .do
4.30
117. Municipal bond yields ©
4.29
4.43
4.34
LAGGING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Long-Duration Unemployment:
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
0.6
0.6
0.6
15 weeks and over (inverted3)
Percent
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Bus. expenditures, new pi ant and equip.7 Ann.rate, bil.dol.
a62.05
505. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures . .
r69.97
do
P72.17
68.95
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . Bil. dollars... r!38.27 r 139. 33 pHO.59
65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
P27.50
r26.92
do
r27.15
Jan. '67
to date
(with
sign)4
Current percent change3
0.6
Table 1
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Oct.
1967
Nov.
1967
Dec.
1967
Jan.
1968
Jan. '67
to date
(with
sign)4
3
Jan. '67 1953 to
1967
to date
(without5 (without
sign)
sign)5 6
Current percent change3
Nov.
to
Dec.
1967
Dec.
to
Jan.
1968
(NA)
+0.2
-0.5
+1.4
+0,5
+0.5
(HA)
+1.6
+1.0
Oct.
to
Nov.
1967
LAGGING INDICATORS-Continued
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.), nonfin. corp.7. . . . Dollars
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
1957-59=100 ...
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt
Mil. dollars ....
*72. Commercial and industrial loans
do
outstanding
Interest Rates on Business Loans and
Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans7®.
118. Mortgage yields, residential ®
Percent
do.
r!07.6
(HA)
107.8
r!07,3
76,088
76,506
76,88?
63,592
63,797
r64,845
6^65
5.96
6,77
6,81
plOB, 8
(NA)
p65,5!8
6,81
+0.8
+0.3
0.8
0.5
0.9
. '0.6
+0.4
0.4
0.8
+0,6
1,2
1.0 • +0.3
-0.9
+0.2
1.0
1,1
2.2
0.6
+0.2
+1.8
+0.6
0.0
+0.3
0,3
0.2
+0,3
+0.3
(MA)
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Retail Prices:
81. Consumer prices®
1957-59=100...
117,8
117.5
118,2
(HA)'
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:7 8
p-1, 832
Mil. dollars ....
a Liquidity balance basis
do
b. Official settlements basis
p-1, 204
8
do
88. Merchandise trade balance
+316.5
+190. 8
+169.3
+79*1
do
86. Exports, excluding military aid
2,392,3 2,692,2 2,603.9 2,784.7
do
1-878
pi, 086
861. Export orders, durables exc. mot. veh.®
(NA).
- 796
(HA)
r258
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery . 1957-59=100...
p255
r234
Mil. dollars
87. General imports
2,201.5 2,375.7 2,524.8 2,615.4
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit
(-), nat'l.
income and prod, acct.7 8
84. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit 7(-)7 8
83. Federal cash receipts from public . . . .
82. Federal cash payments to public7
101. National defense
purchases, current
dollars7
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
90. Defense Dept oblig procurement
99. New orders, defense products industries
92 Military contract awards in U S
Ann. rate, bil.doi.
do
do.
do... .
(HA)
-18.0
155.2
173.2
-432
+206
-15,9
+0.7
+2.9
+1.5
+1.3
432
1,319
82.2
4.1
12.6
9.0
3.2
308
573
57.7
3,6
12,6
6,4
2.9
-0.6
-6.6
-0.3
+4.0.
2.2
7.6
0,8
5.2
2.6
4-5
3.0
1.9
8.8
19.8
16,1
10.1
2.3
13.6
26.2
21.4
20.9
3. a
-1,184
-1,669
+125.7 -237.4
-3.3
+12.5
+10,3 +23.7
+9.0
-9.3
+6.3
+7.9
+90.2
+6.9
(HA)
(HA)
+3.6
(HA)
+1.5
+0.8
-0,2
.. . do
Mil. dollars... .
do
Bil. dollars... .
Mil. dollars
r7,449
r2,735
4.09
3,665
r74.2
r6,565
r2,173
r3.Q6
r3,3QB
6,331
1,846
r3.98
3,479
P3.39
(HA)
+1.9
+0.4
+0.7
< +3.1
+1.5
Percent .
Ratio
' rl«*57
p84.3
1,54
pi. 52
(HA)
-1.1
-0.2
1.2
0.9
2.2
1.0
+0.2
,-1.9
-1.3
(HA)
do
3.88
r3.?0
r3.54
P3.34
,-0.7
2.9
2.0
-4.6
-4.3
-5.6
1957-59 = 100...
r!19.6
rl22,5
rl2Q.2
p!21,l
-0,3
1,2
0.9
+2.4
-1.9
+0.7
+1,1
6,6
8,5
+7.1
. . 5.5
0.4
3.8
+9,3
.+0.4
(IA)
+0.8
+0,3
+9.2
.(HA)
CM)
m)
+1.2
-3.6
-11*9
-20, 5 -15.0
+30.1
-25.2
+5.2
. -9.7
CM)
(M)
-14.8
(IA)
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg.7
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg., trade.
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal saving
to disposable
personal income7
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled
856. Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing7®
Ratio •
do
1957-59=100...
Percent
0,075
rO.108
115.3
rQ.118
rll5.8
(HA)
rO.119
rll6.2
pO,130
(HA)
-0.4
+0.2
-1.5
4.3
0,2
''3,1
;
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. @Not seasonally adjusted. NA =not available; r =revised; p= preliminary; e =estimated; a=anticipated.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by @, that appear to contain no seasonal movement.
See additional basic data and notes in
2
3
table 2.
Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes for the specified periods.
To facilitate interpretations of
cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and
declines as rises (see series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502).
Percent changes are computed in the usual way but the signs are reversed. See footnote 8 for other
"change" qualifications.
Average computed with regard to sign.
Average computed without regard to sign. 8 6The period varies among the series; however, for most
series, the period covered is 1953-67.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percentages.9Figures
are placed in the last month of quarter.
8
Chart 1A
bed
FEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
1948
49
50
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
[Nov.) (Oct.;
P
T
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 33.
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
. Index of
formation (1957-59=100)
13.
incorporations (tnousj
goods indus. (bil. dol
acts, total value (index:
MCD moving 3vg.-5-tftfm
Construct
1957-5
plant and equip, (bil. dol.
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page-4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 33 and 34.
10
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators -Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
starts (am. rate,
MCD moving avg.-5-term
. permits, private
s (index: 1957-59-100)
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
1968
Asterisk (*] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 34.
11
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY
1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT -Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
Iff. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.
mfg. and trade inventories
IB book
rate, bil.
moving avg.-5-term)
, Purchased materials, percent of d&fpanies reporting higher inventories
value, m
entones of materials and
moving avg.-6-term)
.ratMtt
percent of companies
itments 60 days or longer
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( ' ] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 35.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
12
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
59
f to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 35 and 36.
13
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.
P T
axes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58 ^ 59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk {*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 36.
14
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
FEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESEIMT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
SI. MONEY AND CREDIT
1948
49
50
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( * ] identifies series on 'short list'
(May) (Feb.)
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Current data for these series are shown on page 37.
15
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
bed
FEBRUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) [Feb.)
P T
100806040-
20J
40-,
6080-
100120140160180J
1.0n
ami wwci,
(percent- Inverted scale)
1.5-
2.0-
2.5-
3.0J
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
16 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Current data for these series are shown on page 37.
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
FEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators
fl
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
(July) (Aug.)
(May) (Feb.
P T
(luly) (Apr.)
P
T
*41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments (millions)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 38.
17
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
I, EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
345671 2-
unemployment j|jj||perceitt
345 -
1 -
, married males (per cent-in verted scale)
234-
IT. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
*50. GNP in 1958 dollars, 0
(ann. rate, bil. dol.
100,-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk [ ' ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 38 and 39.
18
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
H. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued
(Nov.) [Oct.]
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.;
P T
700650600-
*52. Personal income |ann. rate, bi. dd.)
550500180170160150
53. Wages and salaries in mining,—
mta
rnnctr fann ratp hi fkll 1
140130
120
110-
Comprehensive Consumptio
*816. Mfg. and trade sales (bil. dol.
4J
49
5U
51
52
H.MW to Reaci Charts \ and 2,' page 4
63
54
55
bb
b7
Asterisk I ' j identifies series on 'snt-rt list
5f:
!.-.•
--.'
61
?,2
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Current data for thess senes art, shown on page 39.
19
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
IE .FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.j
P T
(July) (Apr.;
P T
T
, dur. goods Indus. ffctl, dol.)
2.. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 40.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
20 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
FEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
21. MONEY AND CREDIT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
T
-I.O-i
-0.5-
0+0.5J
6-1
5-
4-
3J
6-
5-
4-1
fin
5-
4-
3-
117. Municipal tend yields [percent]
4-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on pagt, 40.
21
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY
1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
[Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
P
T
(May) (Feb.
T
P
T
1 2 J
IH. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
90-,
80
Investment Expenditures
70
*81. B«s.
60-
., 0 (unit, rate, bit. tfol.
new plant
504090807060-
expend, (ann. rate, bil. dol.
5040-I
JSL. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
160 -,
140-
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories (bil. dol.)
120100-
80-
30
65. Book value Of mfrs.' invpntflrifts, finished goods (bil. dol.)
25-
20
15-
10-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'shori list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 41.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
22
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators-Continued
I. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(May) [Feb.)
P T
curr. dol.) per ml flf
cost per unit of output,
. (index: 1957-59-100)
21. MONEY AND CREDIT
6$. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.
ns outstanding, weekly
eom. banks (bil. dol.
Com. and
reporting
.32
Bank rates an short-term
bus. loans, Q (percent)
Ids, residential (percent)
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
66
67
1968
Asterisk (+ ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 42.
23
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
bed
FEBRUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
3C .PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
120-t
ices index: 1957-59-100)
ffiff. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S.
of payments, Q (bil. del
8
00
b. Official settlements basis
+0.5-
«
o-0.5 -i
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 43.
24
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
FEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESEIMT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
301. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS-Continued
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
(index:
MCD moving avg,-4-term)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 43.
25
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
bed
'Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
SHE.FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948
49
50
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P T
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44.
26
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued g
Other Selected U.S. Series-Continued
SIH. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
80
706050
4030-
9
8
7
65-
4
3J
3-1
2-
1-
0J
654dol.; WCD moving avg.--6-term]
32-
1J
1
56
In U.S. (bil.
moving avg.-6-term)
432-
1J
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
65
66
67 1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44.
27
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948
1968
to PRESENT-Continued
bed
U.S. Series Under Consideration
(Hov.) (Oct.]
P
1948
49
(July) [Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
T
50
51
52
53
54
P
55
56
57
58
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 45.
28
(May) (Feb.
P T
T
59
60
61
62
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
FEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
U.S. Series Under Consideration-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.
T
P
T
saving to disposable personal income, Q
i. job openings unfilled to
of persons unemployed
Bf prod, workers in mfg.
(index: 1957-59-100)
total rim housing, Q (percent)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 45.
29
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
bed
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT
industrial Production Indexes
(1957-59-100)
121. OECD Euiupcan countries
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
30
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Current data for these series are shown on page 46.
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart IB
bed
FEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS |
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Consumer Price Indexes
(1957-59=100)
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Current data for these series are shown on page 47.
31
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY
1968
bed
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2: page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 48.
32
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Leading Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Formation of Business
Enterprises
Year
and
month
*1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
*30. Nonagricultural placements,
all industries
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Hours)
(Thous.)
(Per 100 employees)
8
January
February
March
41.4
B> 41.6
41.5
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
*38. Index of net
business formation
13. Number of new
business incorporations
(Per 100 employees)
(1957-59=100)
(Number)
Revised2
8
Revised
1966
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
programs1
(Thous.)
Revised
570
f£> 600
589
4.9
4.9
5.1
222
219
182
1.2
1.2
1.1
109.1
109.6
109.6
18,087
17,451
17,266
1.2
1.1
1.3
107.6
106.8106.2
17,057
16,644
16,577
Apri 1
May
June
41*5
41.4
41.3
522
513
567
4.9
5.1
jt> 5.2
July
August
September .
41.2
41.4
41.4
542
543
509
4.7
5,1
4.9
230
196
183
1.7
1.1
1.1
104.8
103.9
102.7
16,074
16,343
15,764
October
November
December
41.3
41.3
41.0
533
530
524
5.1
4.8
4.6
186
194
212
1.1
1.2
1.3
103.3
100*6
101.4
16,233
16.206
16,583
January
February
March
41.0
40.3
40*4
534
519
497
4.6
4.3
4.1
203
242
256
1,4
1.5
1.7
102.2
103.2"
16,703
15,987
16,244
April
May
June
40*5
40*3
40,3
474
448
437
4.2
4.6
4.6
263
234
225
1.5
1.4
1.4
104.0
10,5.7'
40,4
40.7
40.8
484
486
480
4.2
4.3
4.3
261
215
209
1.6
1.1
1.3
108.4
110.3
110.2
October
November
December
1968
40.7
r40,8
40. a
474
476
479
4.7
r4.5
p4.4
209
201
198
1.3
1.2'
110.3
112.9
|>* 113.2
January
February
March
P40.5
P493
(NA)
214
1967
July
August
September
.
•»:
R> 179
185
186
SD>pi.i •
(NA)
103.3
16,760
17,627
17,799
109'. 0
(HA)
:
16,300
17,674
18,118
18,000
fj> 18,403
18,168
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by BD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
fi> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a*, anticipated; and "NA* not available.
1-
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
2
See "New features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
33
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT— Con.
Minor
Economic Process
New Investment Commitments
Year
and
month
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
94. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value
(Bil.dol.)
(1957-59=100)
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil.dol.)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
Revised3
1966
4.59
111.9
106.4
112.1
4.79
4.84
4.75
68.28
64.00
65.85
1,356
1,232
1,161
105.3
97.4
84.7
§C>5.09
63.54
63.52
64.40
1,061
1,088
1,020
82.1
75.2
65.3
4.82
4.65
4.60
54.76
64.42
824
956
910
63.4
63.4
67.1
4.54
4.24
4.32
49.09
57.84
56.14
1,079
1,132
1,067
83.1
78.9
81.9
5.' 83
4.44
4.61
4.79
58.27
54.72
62.30
1,099
1,254
1,214
90.7
91.1
97.9
5.72
6.16
5.74
4.85
5.06
4.66
56.72
r5.96
61.66
1,356
1,381
1,415
96.4
99.4
102.3
5.96
5.84
5.85
P5.73
106.9
102.2
24.39
April
May .
June..
24.20
24.28
24.59
161
156
147
5.91
5.77
5.57
|E>6*.69
July
August
September
24.37
23.51
6.10
5.87
25.27
147
139
146
j£>6.28
October
November
December
24.24
23.03
23.96
139
130
133
5.76
5.52
5.45
5 '.96
22.07
22.33
22.06
126
143
149
5.40
5.34
5.50
5i76
April
May
June
22.23
23.86
24.26
138
154
164
5.37
5.55
5.82
July
August
September
23.72
23.73
23.42
149
165
168
October
November
December
23.38
r23.54
J£>r26,37
g>171
168
166
P25.14
159
..
1968
January
February
March
....
(1957-59 = 100)
1,403
1,381
1,400
6^34
23. U
*29. Index of
new private
lousing units authorized by local
building permits2
62.29
R> 70.42
67.99
5.46
5.71
5.66
23.58
9. Construction 7. New private
contracts, com- nonfarm housing
mercial and
units started1
industrial
buildings
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space) (Ann. rate, thous.)
Revised3
152
157
158
January
February
March
1967
January
February
March
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)
P5.94
4.45
4.^58
4.81
4.91
5.97
*
60.21
60.45
4.61
58.42
1,478
r4.79
r4.92
63.17
64.08
rl,567
rl,228
rll6.7
P4.91
64.51
pl,419
p98.0
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[B^>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "aT, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
value (1,833) was reached in October 1963.
High value (124.6) was reached in February 1964.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
2
3
34
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
Year
and
month
26. Production
20. Change in
37. Purchased ma21. Change in
*31. Change in
materials, perbook value of
terials, percent of
business invenbook value of
cent of compamanufacturers'
companies reporttories after valmanufacturing
nies reporting
inventories of
invenand trade inven- ing higher
uation adjustcommitments 60
tories1
materials and
tories, total
ment, all indusdays or longer©
supplies 2
tries
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann.rate,bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent reporting)
1966
January
February
March
+9.9
32. Vendor performance, percent of
companies reporting
slower deliveries©
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Percent reporting)
(Bil.dol.)
Revised3
Revised3
+8.4
+11.6
+13.2
49
47
52
+1.1
+1.1
+0.8
68
67
68
74
85
^
B> 86
+1.27
+1.31
+1.65
Revised3
April
May
June
+14.0
+13.0
+18.1
+16.5
51
53
54
+4.1
+3.5
+3.6
69
70
72
82
75
69
+1,49
+1.36
+1.70
July
August
September
+11. 4
+13.3
+15*5
+9.6
58
57
53
+1.1
+5.3
+3.3
73
73
72
70
73
72
+1.34
+0.64
IO+2.30
S> +13*. 5
+18.2
+18.4
$>+19.8
56
55
55
+1.3
+2.2
+1.6
70
70
64
57
+0.79
-0.21
+0.24
+12.9
+2.2
+3.9
48
45
46
+2.5
-1.0
-0.3
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0.99
-0.30
-1.07
October
November .
December
e> 7573
1967
January
February
March
+7.1
April
May
June
+6! 5
+3.2
+1.3
-4.6
37
40
43
+0.9
-1.0
-1.4
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.04
+0.96
+1.21
July
August
September
+3.B
+3.7
+8.9
-0.7
40
42
44
-0.8
+2.2
-1,0
61
66
61
41
43
44
+0.52
+0.09
+0.47
45
46
54
-0.2
+0.7
p-1.7
62
63
64
50
51
48
4-1.07
r+O.Q6
r+1.13
55
(NA)
64
50
p-1.12
October
November
December .
1968
January
February
March
r+9.2
+5.7
+12.8
p+15.1
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[[£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
lt> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "af, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•High value (63) was reached in November 1964.
High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961.
2
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
35
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity
Prices
Stock Prices
Profits and Profit Margins
*23. Index of industrial materials prices®
*19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks®
*16. Corporate profits
after taxes
22. Ratio of profits to
income originating,
corporate, all industries
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
*17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost index,
manufacturing
(1957-59 = 100)
(1941-43 = 10)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Cents)
(1957-59=100)
Year
and
month
1
C )
1966
120,5
122.9
|£>123.5
93.32
92.69
April
May
June
121.5
118*3
118.4
91.60
, 86.78
86.06
July
August
September
118.8
111.7
108.9
85.84
80.65
77.81
October
November
December
106.3
105.9
105.8
January
February
March
April
May
June
January
February
March
49^2
JO 131 5
fc>9*8
88.88
49.2
105.1
105.1
105.1
104.4
105.1
104.6
13!?
9.3
B>49U
13^0
9^2
77.13
80.99
81.33
49*. 3
12! 6
9^6
103.9
103.0
103.1
106.8
105.2
102.5
84.4-5
87.36
89.42
46.5
12*. 6
8.* 5
101.5
101.0
100.7
100.1
99.6
99. a
90.96
92.59
91.43
46^5
13L9
8*2
100.8
100.3
99.8
July
August
September
98.3
98.1
97.8
93.01
94.49
g> 95.81
47a
lli?
B.I
100.2
99.8
99.2
October
November
December
97.7
99.1
100.1
95.66
92.66
95,30
(HA)
(MA)
(NA)
r99.5
r99.4
rlOO.3
1968
January
February
March
E
K> 105.2
104.5
104.2
1967
99.8
99.3
3
95,04
90. 99
P99.4
April
May
June
julv
August
September
October .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by [j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA* not available.
•"-See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
Average for February 19, 20, and 21.
3
Average for February 20, 21, and 23.
2
36 FRASER
Digitized for
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
MONEY AND CREDIT
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
(Ann. rate,
percent)
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
*113. Net change
in consumer
installment
debt2
112. Change in
business loans
110. Total private borrowing
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies
5
5
Revised
Revised
1966
RevisecF
14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of busi- rate, 30 days
ness failures 3 and over, total
installment loans4
(Mil. dol.)
5
Revised
+6.48
+4.56
+9.12
+7.92
+2.88
+6.36
+23.81
+21.85
+22,87
+7.16
+6.46
+7.79
+14.10
+6.24
+8.76
+12.36
+4.80
+7.80
+9.24
-2.16
+2.88
+20.77
+17.76
+15.22
+6.37
+5.92
+6.59
+ 8.50
+9.58
+17.70
July
August
September
+3.72
+5.16
+3.36
-4.92
+1.44
+2.88
+12.54
+12.68
+11.40
+6.77
+7.22
+5.70
E>+21.11
+3.28
+0.67
58,004
62.84
159.29
128.77
October
November
December
-0.72
-0.72
+5.52
-2.76
0.00
+2.16
+9.96
+9.66
+6.86
+4.56
+5.33
+3.8$
+5.93
+2.63
+0.14
45,748
128.02
116.90
194.09
+7.68
+H.16
f£>+15.00
-0.72
+8.40
+11.16
+11.05
+12.11
+11.95
+3.36
+2.59
+3.17
+6.01
+0.86
+6.83
60,576
118.61
111.23
108.87
April
May
June
+5.64+13.08
+14.28
-2.76
te>+12.48
+11.64
+11.64
+15.61
+18.11
+2.56
+2.32
+3.50
+9.25
+1.63
+8.16
61,640
110.80
93.00
87.20
July
August
September
+13.44
+12.96
+6.12
+11.52
+8.04
+0.72
+14.11
+22.82
+20.74
+2.70
+4.13
+3.41
+16.46
-9.44
-2.34
68,136
76.85
91.13
91.29
October
November
December
+10.08
+8.64
+5.28
+7.32
+6.00
+2.04
+21.02
+22.07
p+19.61
+3.73
+5.02
+4.60
+5.36
+2.66
+8.39
p72,672
95.81
85.55
192.56
p+3.24
p+7.32
(NA)
p+12.53
January
February
March
April
May
June
70,500
f£> 73,908 '
(Percent)
Revisea
111.67
94.59
98.73
106.93
92.41
111.23
l'.73
1.78
l!?6
l'.76
1.79
1*.75
1967
January
February
March
l',82
1.90
1.72
l!65
1.66
l.*74
1968
January
February
March
(NA)
116.62
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values "m indicated by [B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
£>•. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series precettedby
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
value (24.02) was reached in October 1963.
High value (+8.94) was reached in April 1965.
2
3
High
4
value (52.86) was reached in August 1963.
High value (1.57) was reached in May 1963.
5
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
Job Vacancies
301. Nonagriculural job openngs unfilled
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers
(Thous.)
(1957-59 = 100)
511. Man-hours
n nonagricultural
establishments
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
*41. Number of
employees in
nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total nonagricultural
employment,
labor force
survey
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Revised2
3
1966
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment
Revised
2
Revised
Revised2
2
Revised
January
February
March
383
401
425
184
191
|P>2Q1
126.73
127.89
128.71
62,503
62,889
63,296
68,185
68,179
68,192
3.9
3.7
3.8
2.6
2.6
2.3
1.9
1.9
1.9
April
May
June
431
426
424
189
185
184
128.23
128.27
129.52
63,427
63,616
64,069
68,375
68,488
68,772
3.7
3.9
3.8
2.1
2.1
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.9
July.
August
September
428
424
$>438
186
189
189
129.45
130.00
129.86
64,180
64,345
64,394
68,943
69,230
69,264
3.8
3.8
3.8
2.4
2.4
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
October
November
December
429
414
404
193
194
193
130.52
131.11
131.13
64,694
65,014
65,251
69,515
69,915
69,828
3.8
3.6
3.7
|£> 2.0
2.1
2.3
1.8
1.8
1.8
January
February
March
392
375
362
189
190
184
132.15
131.57
131.67
65,564
65,692
65,749
70,104
70,187
69,964
3.7
3.7
3.7
2.3
2.4
2.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
April
May
June
353
351
351
181
174
171
131.08
130.89
131.80
65,653
65,639
65,903
70,096
69,822
70,430
3.7
3.9
3.9
2.6
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.9
1.9
July
August
September
344
350
373
169
180
185
131.62
132.74
132.56
65,939
66,190
66,055
70,631
70,708
70,941
3.9
3.8
4.1
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
October
November
December
360
352
345
186
187
190
132.35
|>134.37
134.10
66,243
r66,918
r67,110
71,017
71,166
g>71,36l
4.3
3.8
3.7
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.9
1.7
1.7
P357
pl,84
P133.21
J>p67,146
71,164
|D>3.5
2.3
B>1.6
1967
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by ED>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA". not available.
2
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
38
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Minor
Economic Process
Comprehensive Production
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Income
49. Gross national product
in current dollars
*50. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars
*47. Index of industrial production
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1957-59 = 100)
*52. Personal
income
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*816. Manufacturing and trade
sales
57. Final sales
(series 49 minus
series 21)
(Mil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
* 54. Sales of
retail stores
(Mil.dol.)
1
Revised
1966
January
February
March
725.9
645! I
150.7
152.4
153.8
563.7
567.4
572.3
149.4
151.5
153.4
84,679
84,517
86,939
716.0
25,081
25,049
25,536
April
May
June
736.7
649*. 3
153.9
155.4
156.5
574.7
576.1
581.1
154.0
155.0
156.8
85,434
85,365
86,917
722^6
24,949
24,475
25,394
748,8
654-. 8
157.2
157.8
158.1
584.7
589.1
594.1
156.9
158.5
159.5
86,611
86,939
86,734
737^4
25,362
25,572
25,703
762.1
661 !i
159.4
159.1
159.5
597.5
602.1
605.0
160.5
161.3
162.1
86,983
86,528
87,690
743.6
25,550
25,610
25,368
January
February
March
766 ."3
660." 7
158.2
156.6
156.4
610.4
612.6
615.6
163.3
162.4
162.7
87,182
86,138
87,255
759^2
25,687
25,470
25,739
April
May
June
775.1
664,7
156.5
155.6
155.6
616.5
618.2
622.6
162.2
161.5
162.4
86,656
87,358
88,368
774^6
25,918
25,897
26,544
July
August
September
791.2
672! 6
156.6
158.1
. 156.8
627.0
631.6
634.4
163.4
165.2
165.5
88,759
89,067
88,633
787.4
26,444
26,422
26,732
October
November
December
jj£>r807*.3
j£>r679*.6
r!56.9
r!59.5
@>rl6l.8
635.9
642.4
r649.3
165.2
168.4
r!70.4
87,807
90,235
|D>P92,772
|> ,r798!l
26,089
r 26, 411
r 26, 402
pl6l.2
|>P651.2
|C> p!70.9
(NA)
July
August
September
-..
October
November
December
1967
1968
January
February
March
j>p27,176
April
May
June
July
August.
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated b y ® . Current high values are indicated by [£>•; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
0>> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
39
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
PRICES, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
Minor
Economic Process
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Year
and
month
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
joods indus:ries
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, industrial commodities©
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, manufactured
goods ®
(1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 = 100)
MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank
Reserves
Money Market Interest Rates
93. Free
reserves ©
114. Treasury
bill rate®
116. Corporate bond
yields ©
(Mil.dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
115. Treasury 117. Municipal
bond yields© bond yields®
(Percent)
(Percent)
1966
January
February
March..
63.80
65.11
66.76
April
May
June . .
68.25
69.61
71.31
July
August
September
72.65
73.29
75.59
October
November
December
76.33
76.17
76.42
19 '.33
103.5
103.8
104.0
104.4
104.9
105.0
-44
-107
-246
4.60
4.67
4.63
4.93
5.09
5.33
4.43
4.61
4.63
3.52
3.64
3.72
20.56
104.3
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.5
105.6
-268
-352
-352
4.61
4.64
4.54
5.38
5.55
5.67
4.55
4.57
4.63
3.56
3.65
3.77
20.77
105.2
105.2
105.2
106.0
106.4
106.4
-362
-390
-368
4.86
4.93
5.36
5.81
6.04
6.14
4.75
4.80
4.79
3.95
4.12
4.12
20.72
105.3
105.5
105.5
106.3
106.2
106.2
B>-431
-222
-165
g> 5.39
5.34
5.01
6.04
6.11
5.98
4.70
4.74
4.65
3.94
3.86
3.86
20.40
105.8
106.0
106.0
106.4
106.4
106.3
-16
-4
4-236
4.76
4.55
4.29
5.53
5.35
5.55
4.40
4.47
4.45
3.54
3.52
3.55
20.32
106.0
106.0
106.0
106.2
106.3
106.6
+175
+269
+297
3.85
3.64
3.48
5.59
5.90
6.06
4.51
4.76
4.86
3.60
3.89
3.96
r2o!<S3
106.0
106.3
106.5
106.8
106.8
107.1
+272
+298
+268
4.31
4.28
4.45
6.06
6.30
6.33
4.86
4.95
4.99
4.02
3.99
4.12
106.8
107.1
107.4
107.1
107.2
107.6
+160
+270
14-107
4.59
4.76
5.01
6.53
6.87
B>6.93
5.19
B>5.44
5.36
4.30
4.34
|^>4.43
10*107.7
g> 108.1
p+138
5.08
6,57
5.18
4.29
.. .
1967
January
February
March
75.4-3
75.13
74.06
April
May
June
74.02
74.97
76.18
July
August
September
76.71
76.80
77.27
October
November
December
78.34
r78.40
U>r79.53
ft>p20.77
1968
January
February
March
p78.41
April ...
Mav
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by [H>>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
G>*. Series numbers are tor identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" not available.
40FRASER
Digitized for
Table 2A
bed
FEBRUARY
BASIC DATA
1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Investment Expenditures
Year
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Inventories
*502. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total
505. Machinery and equipment sales dnd business
construction expenditures
(Percent)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
book value
and
month
1966
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
Revised1
1
1
Revised
Revised
January
February
March
0.8
0.8
0.8
58.00
65.13
63.91
66.58
121.30
122.26
123.36
23.20
23.37
23.57
April
60.10
June
0,3
0,7
0.6
65.20
65.30
66.18
124.45
125.95
127.33
23.60
23.84
23.92
July
August
September
0.6
0.6
0.6
61.25
68.41
68.19
68.68
128.43
129.73
130.53
24.24
24.39
24.59
October
November
December
0.7
8>62!s6
69.13
68.12
68.56
132.05
133.58
135.23
24.77
25.27
25.71
May
a, 6
0.6
1967
January
February
March
0.6
0.6
0.6
61^65
70.44
69.50
68.85
136,30
136.49
136.82
26,13
26,40
26,58
Apri 1
61 '.50
June
0.6
0.6
0.6
66.79
67.56
68.30
137.08
137.19
136.80
26.87
27.02
26.76
July
August
September
0.6
0.6
0.6
60*. 90
70.20
69.75
70.52
137.11
137.85
137.79
26.92
27.04
26.98
October
November
December
0.6
0.6
0.6
a62.05
68.95
r69.97
P72.17
138.27
139.33
ft> pl40.59
26.92
27.15
H> P27.50
(HA)
(HA)
May
§&>
1968
January
February
March
§£> 0.6
(HA)
a65]o5
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by[j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
[R>> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "pn, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA r not available.
•"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue.," page v.
41
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Lagging Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Minor
Economic Process
Unit Labor Costs
Year
and
month
MONEY AND CREDIT
Interest Rates on Business Loans
and Mortgages
Outstanding Debt
68. Labor cost (cur.
dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.),
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Index of labor
cost per unit of output, manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and
industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large
commercial banks
*67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 35 cities (u;1
118. Mortgage yields,
residential @
(Dollars)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
2
( )
1966
January
February .
March
0.670
April
May
June
0.679
July
August
September
0.687
October
November
December
0.693
99.3
99.8
99.9
67,920
68,458
69,107
53,255
53,747
54,522
100.7
100.4101.0
69,638
70,131
70,680
55,118
56,134
57,874
100.8
101.8
102.1
71,244
71,846
72,321
59,380
59,014
59,381
102.3
103.1
103.0
72,701
73, U5
73,466
59,911
60,042
59,763
5^55
5.70
(NA)
6.00
5*. 82
(NA)
6.32
6.45
6*. 30
6.51
6.58
6.63
£>6'.31
(NA)
6.81
6.77
1967
January
February
March
0.711
10 A. 8
105.3
105.6
73,746
73,962
74,226
60,754
60,525
61,167
6.13
6.62
6.46
6.35
April
May
June
0.713
105.4
106.0
106.8
74,439
74,632
74,924
62,407
61,898
63,341
5*.95
6.29
6.44
6.51
§£> 0.722
106.6
107.0
108.0
75,149
75,493
75 , 777
64,352
62,944
63,309
5*95
6.53
6.60
6.63
63,592
63,797
64, 845
5*.%
6.65
6.77
6.81
July
August
September
...
October
November
December
(HA)
r!07,6
107.8
r!07.3
76,088
76,506
§£>• 76,889
1968
January
February
March
|>pl08.8
(HA)
6t>p65,5l8
ft> 6.81
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by [j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
§£>• . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
"""Prior to 1967, data are based on 19 cities and refer to the last month of the quarter.
2
42
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Major
Economic Process
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
Minor
Economic Process
Comprehensive
Retail Prices
Foreign Trade and Payments
81. Index of consumer prices @
Year
and
month
89. Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (-) in U.S. balance
of payments
a. Liquidity
balance basis
(1957-59 = 100)
(Mil.dol.)
b. Official
settlements
basis
(Mil.dol.)
88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
86. Exports, excluding military
aid shipments,
total
861. Manufacturers' new orders
for export, durable
goods except
motor vehicles
and parts ©
862. Index of
export orders,
nonelectrical
machinery
87. General
imports, total
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Mil.dol.)
Revised1
1966
January
February . .
March
111.0
111.6
112.0
-651
-443
+324.0
+366.1
+501.2
2,271.6
2,371.2
2,568.9
852
849
904
237
201
227
1,947.6
2,005.1
2,067.7
April
May
June
112.5
112.6
112.9
-122
-175
+2^9.9
+348.3
+354.4
2,358.8
2,410.8
2,489.4
749
976
1,078
195
217
217
2,108.9
2,062.5
2,135.0
July
August
September
113.3
113.8
1H.1
-165
+861
+250.7
+339.0
+234.4
2,455.4
2,451.6
2,534.2
805
826
1,059
201
199
200
2,204.7
2,112.6
2,299.6
October
November
December
1U. 5
-419
-18
+319.7
+299.8
+184.6
2,580.7
2,486.1
2,415.8
865
785
1,200
240
235
225
2,261.0
2,186.3
2,231.2
in. 6
in. 7
1967
January
February
March
1H.7
in. 8
r-536
r-1,822
+360.4
+378.1
+348.5
2,615.9
2,607.3
2,551.4
891
833
905
234
196
252
2,255.5
2,229.2
2,202.9
April
May
June
115.3
115.6
116.0
r-556
r-837
U27.8
+407.0
+349.2
2,653.8
2,546.9
2,576.5
772
1,029
1,043
215
220
218
2,226.0
2,139.9
2,227.3
July
August
September
116.5
116.9
117.1
r-648
r+465
+376.1
+422.8
+434.2
2,584.1
2,547.9
2,642.7
875
841
905
219
230
231
2,208.0
2,125.1
2,208.5
October
November
December
1968
117.5
117.8
118.2
p-1,832
p-1,204
+190.8
+316.5
+79.1
2,392.3
2,692.2
2,603.9
796
r878
pi, 086
258
234
p255
2,201.5
2,375.7
2,524.8
+169.3
2,784.7
(NA)
(NA)
2,615.4
January
February
March
115.0
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e". estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
43
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Other Selected U.S. Series— Continued
Major
Economic Process
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Minor
Economic Process
Federal Government Activities
84. Federal
95. Federal
cash surplus (+)
surplus (+)
I
or deficit (-), or deficit (-)
national income
and product
account
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
Year
and
month
82. Federal
83. Federal
cash receipts cash payments
to the public
from the
public1
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
101. National
defense purchases, current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1966
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Mil do!.)
(Mi Idol.)
Revised*
Revised*
99. New
orders, defense
3roducts
industries
(Bil.dol.)
92. Military
prime contract
awards to
U.S. business
firms and
institutions
(Mil. dol.)
Revised2
January
February
March
+2,2
-12." 8
133*6
146 .'4
55!l
5,100
5,179
5,879
1,639
1,736
1,904
3.40
3.04
3.38
2,940
2,850
2,913
April
May
June
+3.2
+5*. 6
148.4
143! 4
58.4
6,444
5,447
7,084
2,109
1,620
2,415
3,30
2.91
3.68
3,359
3,061
3,724
July
August
September
-0.7
-9.9
149.0
158!<9
63.0
4,998
7,215
6,579
1,753
2,251
1,866
3.50
3.16
4,67
4,016
3,170
3,530
October
November
December
-3,3
-0,9
153^5
154 .'4
65^6
6,059
5,989
6,023
1,931
1,723
1,937
3.31
2.73
3.36
3,396
3,252
3,501
-11.9
+1,7
156! 7
155.*Q
7o!2
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
2.85
3.33
3.24
3,338
3,849
2,984
April
May
June
-14." 7
+1*6
154.'l
152,5
72.5
6,211
7,732
6,891
1,754
2,480
2,290
3.27
3.86
4.20
2,920
4,121
3,626
July
August
September
-13l 2
-19! 5
154*0
173.5
73! 3
5,928
7,003
7,479
1,633
1,925
2,958
3.64
2,84
3.71
3,610
3,686
3,665
October
November
December
(NA)
-18.0
155.2
173.2
r74.2
7,449
6,565
6,331
2,735
2,173
1,846
4.09
r3.06
r3.98
3,665
3,308
3,479
(NA)
(NA)
P3.39
(HA)
1967
January .
February
March
1968
January
February
March
. ...
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by (u). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
-"•Beginning with 2d quarter 1966, data reflect graduated withholding of personal income taxes and change in schedule for
depositing withheld and OASI taxes.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
44FRASER
Digitized for
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
U.S. Series Under Consideration
Major
Economic Process
UNCLASSIFIED INDICATORS
Minor
Economic Process
Unclassified Indicators
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to
capacity,
manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories to
sales, manufacturing and
trade
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders
to shipments,
manufacturers'
durable goods
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer goods
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Ratio)
1
1
Revised
1966
855. Ratio,
nonagricultural
job openings
unfilled to
persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
Revised
856. Ratio,
average earnings
of production
workers in
manufacturing to
consumer prices
(1957-59 = 100)
Revised1
857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing®
(Percent)
Reviser!1
January
February
March
90 ".5
1.4-3
1.45
1.42
3.21
3.28
3.25
117.9
119.1
119.7
0.053
0.13C
0.143
0.149
113.4
113.7
113.2
7.5
April
May
June
90*.9
1.46
1.48
1.46
3.37
3.40
3.50
119.8
121.5
123.2
0.057
0.154
0,145
0.146
113.5
113.7
113.7
6\B
90.6
1.48
1.49
1.50
3.49
3.54
3.64
124.8
125.9
126.4
0.057
0.148
0.146
0.153
113.8
133.8
114.3
6.S
90.0
1.52
1.54
1.54
3.67
3.67
3.62
125.4
125.9
126.1
0.066
0.149
0.152
0.141
114.1
114.0
113.9
7.0
January
February
March
p87.1
1.56
1.58
1.57
3.64
3.68
3.58
126.3
127.7
125.8
0.073
0.138
0.131
0.127
114.3
115.1
114.8
6.*6
April
May
June
p84.9
1.58
1.57
1.55
3.73
3.69
3.74
124.7
124.7
123.4
0.067
0.123
0.119
0.115
114.9
114.9
115.2
6.*3
July
August
September
p84.1
1.54
1.55
1.55
3.71
3.63
3.78
122.9
121.5
122.3
0.070
0.114
0.119
0.118
115.2
115.6
115,5
6^4
October
November
December
p84.3
1.57
1.54
pi. 52
r3.88
r3.7Q
r3.54
rl!9.6
r!22.5
r!20.2
0.075
0.108
0.118
0.119
115.3
115.8
116.2
(NA)
p3:34
p!21.1
July
August
September
. ..
October
November
December
1967
(NA)
1968
January .
February
March
pO.130
(NA)
.. .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
45
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Major
Economic Process
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES
Minor
Economic Process
Industrial Production Indexes
Year
and
month
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
121. OECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production
126. France,
index of industrial production
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
128. Japan, in127. Italy, index
dex of industrial of industrial production
production
(1957-59 = 100) (1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59= 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 =100)
47. United
States, index
of industrial
production
1966
January .
February
March
151
152
154
161
163
163
132
131
134
r!53
r!53
r!56
147
150
152
158
157
161
252
251
257
rl88
r!88
April
May
June
154
155
156
164
163
163
132
130
130
r!55
r!54
r!56
151
151
154
160
159
161
261
265
267
rl88
r!95
r!94
July
August
September
157
158
158
163
164
166
132
131
130
155
r!54
156
155
155
156
158
154
156
273
277
279
r!95
r!96
r201
October .
November
December
159
159
160
167
168
167
128
127
129
r!55
r!55
r!56
155
156
156
154
154
153
285
291
299
r!99
r200
January
February
March
158
157
156
166
166
166
129
129
129
r!55
r!55
155
156
154
156
151
150
152
301
300
309
r207
r211
r209
April .
May
June
156
156
156
168
167
168
130
128
129
155
154
r!56
153
152
156
150
151
151
312
315
323
r212
r211
r211
July
August
September
157
158
157
169
170
170
129
129
128
156
r!55
157
156
156
160
156
152
156
323
327
337
r!98
r210
October
November
December
157
169
p!73
(NA)
128
p!30
(NA)
158
rl60
pl60
160
160
r!59
160
(NA)
P347
pl6l
pl68
(NA)
1968
January
February
March
pl6l
(NA)
(NA)
r!91
204
1967
162
339
210
r215
p215
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
46FRASER
Digitized for
Table 2B
bed
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Major
Economic Process
CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES
Minor
Economic Process
Consumer Price Indexes
81. United States, 133. Canada,
index of consumer index of consumer
prices @
prices®
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59 = 100)
111
112
112
113
114
114
124
124
125
137
137
138
112
113
113
115
115
116
126
127
127
113
114
116
116
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
-
July
August
September .
132. United King- 136. France,
index of consumer
dom, index of
consumer prices® prices ®
in
114
.
135. West Germany, 138. Japan, index
index of consumer of consumer
prices ©
prices®
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices®
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
120
121
121
146 .
147.
148 =
133
133
133
138
139
138
122
122
122
150
148.
149
133
134
134
117
127
127
127
139
139
139
122
122
122
149
148
150
134
134
134
117
117
117
128
128
129
140
140
140
122
122
151
150
151
134
135
136
(1957-59- 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
October
November
December
1967
January . ...
February
March
115
115
115
117
117
118
129
129
129
141
141
142
123
123
123
April .. . .
May
June
115
116
116
119
119
120
130
130
130
142
142
142
124
124
124.
154:
153 J
152:
138
138
139
July
. . .
August
September
116
117
117
121 121
121 '
130
130
129
142
143
143
124
123
123
152
153
156
139
139
140
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
118
118
US
121
121
122
129
131
pl31
144
145
PH5
123
pl23
(NA)
159
159
pl60
140
140
p!40
(HA)
pl23
(NA)
(NA)
(MA) '
(NA)
April
Mav
June
115
115
-
123
153
154:
154
;
137
138
138
:
. . .
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
47
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Major
Economic Process
STOCK PRICE INDEXES
Minor
Economic Process
Stock Price Indexes
19. United States,
index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks ®
143. Canada,
index of stock
prices®
142. United Kingdom, index of
stock prices©
146. France, index
of stock prices ®
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59= 100)
(1957-59-100)
January
February
March
189
188
180
192
191
186
173
April
May
June
186
176
174
190
182
July..
August
September
Year
and
month
145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
of stock prices ®
index of stock
prices®
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59=100)
Jbccf
147. Italy, index
of stock prices®
(1957-59 = 100)
1966
177
180
178
223
230
174
127
123
118
241
147
153
156
182
173
179
181
114
110
110
175
168
159
240
243
236
144
143
143
174
163
158
180
171
162
173
154
152
108
108
102
149
150
154
231
230
226
146
147
145
October
November
December
156
164
165
158
162
166
150
147
151
101
107
103
151
147
148
224
221
218
149
147
144
1967
January
February
March
171
177
181
175
180
182
157
156
159
99
103
98
148
156
159
223
229
228
142
141
127
April .
May
June
184
188
185
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
98
158
155
154
223
231
231
129
132
130
July
August
September
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
94
99
110
156
175
182
231 •
215
209
129
133
139
October
November
December
194
188
193
192
188
189
196
203
200
109
106
103
182
192
194
213
206
198
143
139
135
193
pi 84
189
202
rpl08
pl80
p211
pl!2
rp210
p2ll
p203
p207
p!34
p!31
1968
January
February
March
178 .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Digitized for
48 FRASER
Section TWO
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
charts and tables
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—1,000 corporations
Stock prices—77 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—22 industries
Retail sales—23 types of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—79 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—78 industries
BASIC DATA AND DIRiCTIONS Of CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
Chart 2
bed
FEBRUARY
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1968
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indexes
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
Percent
9-mo. span
rod. wfers., mfg.-21 Indus
6. New orders, dur. goods indus.-36 Indus
capital appropri
3-Q span*— 1-Q span
B of NY, percent
1,000 nifg. corp. (1-Q span)
Industrial
prices-13 indus. mtls
, Stale
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
insur.-47 areas (inverted)
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
51
Chart 2
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY
1968
bed
DIFFUSION
'NDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.]
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.
T
P
~ 22 ifflhis.
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Current data for these series are shown on page 56.
52for FRASER
Digitized
T
Percent
span— 1-mo. span
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 2
bed
FEBRUARY
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1968
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
g
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.;
P
T
(May) (Feb.
P
T
Percent
D48. Change in total carloadings
imillions OT cars-^-u span]
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 57.
53
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
bed
Leading Indexes
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1966
January
,
February
March
50.0
81.0
42.9
81.0
85.7
38.1
30.6
50.0
84.7
75.0
75.0
66.7
65
76
April
May
June
35.7
54.8
33.3
50.0
45.2
40.5
41.7
50.0
51.4
72.2
58.3
59.7
62
47
July
August
September
19.0
66.7
64.3
23.8
0.0
9.5
50.0
59.7
37.5
55.6
44.4
41.7
29
47
October
November
December
35.7
38.1
9.5
9.5
14.3
14.3
50.0
44.4
55.6
36.1
31.9
27.8
59
35
1967
January
February
March
69.0
4.8
61.9
9.5
9.5
9.5
31.9
38.9
55.6
38.9
41.7
45.8
53
47
April
May
June
47.6
26.2
52.4
19.0
42.9
28.6
50.0
58.3
61.1
X
47.1
X
66.7
53
r41
July
August
September
64.3
73.8
71.4
76.2
61.9
P42.9
52.8
65.3
1
38.2
53
P 53
October
November
December
28.6
r78.6
r33.3
1968
January
February
March
p23.8
f
X
55.9
1*64. 7
r75.0
1
58.8
X
r83.3
r91.7
p81.9
P41
P55.6
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
-"-Based on 34 industries.
54FRASER
Digitized for
bed
Table 3
FEBRUARY
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Leading Indexes-Continued
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(about 1,000 corporastocks (77 industries)© -1
(13 industrial materials)
tions)
Year
and
month
1-quarter span
9- month span
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
Revised2
1966
January
February
March
1-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
,
59
74,0
48.7
14.3
51.9
43.5
37,7
61.5
76.9
46.2
53.8
61.5
61.5
3.3.3
44.7
83,0
91.5
74.5
44.7
April
May
June
59
63.6
3.9
23.4
22.1
11.7
6.5
30.8
42.3
46.2
53.8
30.8
15.4
53.2
45.7
57.4
68.1
76.6
78.7
July
August
September
50
38.3
6.5
3.9
9.7
22.1
20.1
61.5
26.9
0.0
7.7
7.7
7.7
17.0
72.3
80.9
80.9
34.0
34.0
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
54
25.3
88.3
59.7
47.4
58.4
66.2
19.2
30.8
57.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
36.2
46.8
27.7
23.4
17.0
46.8
48
90.9
92.2
61.0
85.7
90.3
97.4
46.2
53.8
23.1
0.0
15.4
26.9
55.3
17.0
46.8
27.7
8.5
8.5
April
May
June
46
76.0
74.0
51.3
93.4
92.1
86.2
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
54.3
55.3
31.9
44.7
29.8
July
August
September
52
81.6
77.6
57.2
68.4
65.8
71.1
30.8
53.8
19.2
23.1
30.8
46.2
34.0
72.3
60.6
78.7
78.7
66.0
October
November
December
P 59
38. 5
38.3
74.5
46.8
32.2
7.9
71.1
46.2
46.2
61.5
3
1968
January
February
March
64.5
3
46.2
38. 5
25.5
April
May
June
July
August
September .
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no
adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
1
Based on 77 components through June 1967 and on 76 components thereafter.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
3
Average for February 19, 20, and 21.
2
55
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY
1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indexes
Year
and
month
D41. Number of employees in
nonagri cultural establishments
(30 industries)
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries) @
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month span
9-month span
6-month span
1- mo nth span
6-month span
70.8
70.8
91.7
95.8
91.7
79.2
79.5
75.0
72.7
88.6
95.5
93.2
76.1
65.2
'60.9
82.6
84.8
78.3
81.7
81.7
73.3
72.9
62.5
75.0
75.0
79.2
66.7
70.5
86.4
75.0
95.5
95.5
86.4
43.5
30.4
95.7
78.3
82.6
78.3
56.7
78.3
35,0
76.7
73.3
73.3
50.0
75.0
43.8
75.0
66.7
66.7
72.7
54.5
47.7
72.7
72.7
63.6
47.8
47,8
60.9
76.1
65.2
82.6
October
November
December
81.7
76.7
70,0
85.0
65.0
65.0
72.9
56.2
50.0
66.7
45.8
33.3
63.6
63.6
54.5
63.6
72.7
72.7
43.5
69.6 '
41.3
87.0
78.3
82.6
1967
January
February
March
71.7
43.3
43.3
55.0
41.7
43.3
25.0
25.0
39.6
41.7
29.2
25.0
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
39.1
43.5
69.6
91.3
95.7
April
May
June
40,0
41.7
71.7
38.3
41.7
36.7
43.8
25.0
56.2
33.3
43.8
47.9
47.7
56.8
50.0
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
82.6
87.0
91.3
56.5
July
August
September
53.3
58.3
35.0
48.3
75.0
r71.7
58.3
66.7
41.7
58.3
66.7
r79.2
63.6
65.9
75.0
72.7
81.8
81.8
43,5
60.9
76.1
r82.6
r73.9
P 67.A
October
November
December
75.0
r91.7
r80.0
P73.3
r56.2
r87.5
r83.3
p77.1
72.7
77.3
90.9
81.8
37.0
r67.4
r39.1
1968
January
February
March
P55.0
1-month span
6-month span
1966
January
*
February
March
81.7
88.3
95.0
95.0
91.7
83.3
April
May
June
80.0
75.0
93.3
July
August
September
1-month span
P29.2
90.9
p65.2
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE' Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table 4
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @.
Digitized for56
FRASER
Table 3
bed
FEBRUARY
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35. Net sales, manufactures D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) ©
(800 companies) ®
Year
and
month
4-quarter span
Actual
1966
January
February
March
D48. Freight carloadings(19 manufactured
commodity groups) ®
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (18 industries)
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
4-quarter span
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
..
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
*S7
*9l
*85
*89
57^9
84.. 2
*84
m
*82
*83
52^6
78.9
-fl
72
*84
*68
*82
42*1
78.9
-50
72
,84
*67
"so
(HA)
52.6
-91
70
*82
'65
*78
7^9
(MA)
"H
(HA)
*78
73^7
'ao
73*7
*82
Actual
Anticipated
$3*3
62,5
83,3
71.9
55,6
37.5
75.0
65.6
55.6
50.0
30.6
41*7
33.3
U»4
. (HA)
50.0
+21
-131
-91
p63.9
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
57
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
FEBRUARY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data and Direction of Change
1968
1967
Diffusion index components
July
June
September
August
October
Novemberr
Januaryp
December
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURINGx
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
•
0
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
0
4
4
o
4
_
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
+
4
_
4
0
4
0
4
-J-
40.3
4
40.4
4
(52)
(64)
41.2 +
4.0.1
4-0.3
41.3 O
4,0 6 4
4,1 2 4
42.0 +
40.0 4
41.2 +
41.0 o
39.4
41.8
39.9
40.2
41.3
40 9
41 3
42.1
40.3
41.4
41.0
39.2
41.0
39.0
40.4
35.7
42.6
4
+
40.6
38.4
40.6
35.9
42.7
38.3 0
41.3 +
42 6 +
41.2
37.9 4
38.3
41.5
42 8
40.6
38.4
O
__
4
+
4
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
_
0
4
4
40.8
40.7
(74)
(71)
(29)
41.9 4
39.7 4
40.2 4
41.6 4
41.0 o
41.5 4
42.2 4
40.4
42.5 4
41.2 O
39.4 4
42.4
40.5 o
40.7
42.0
41.0 4
41.8
42.7
40.2 4
42.7
41.2
39.5 _
41.7
40.5
40.4
41.8
41.3
41.4
42.3
40.5
41.5
41.1
39.4
40.8
38.9
41.0
35.8
42.6
4
_
41.0
38.0
41.4
36.3
42.8
38.3
41.5
43.1
42.0
38.3
0
40.7
39.0
41.3
35.8
42.8
38.0
41.5
43.0
41.9
38.7
40.7
4
4
4
4
O
4
38.3
41.5
42.4
41.9
38.9
+
_
_
O
O
4
O
4
40,8
0
(79)
4
4
4
4
4
O
4
4
O
4
4
_
4
4
O
4
4
4
4
41.9
41.? _
40.5 4
42.1
41.6 O
41.4 4
42.4 0
40.6
39.8 4
41.1 4
39.6
40.8
38.8
41.5
36.3
42.8
38.2
41.9
43.1
41.8
39.5
40.8
40.5
(33)
(24)
r41.7
r40.4 -.
r40.7
41.6
_
r41.6
r41.6
4
r42.4
r40.4
r42.6
41.2
39.4
41.5
39.7
40.5
40.9
41.4
41,9
42.1
40.5
43.1
41.0
39.3
4
4
_
_
40.7
_
4
__
4
_
r36.8
r41.7
4
—
36.2
__
r43.0
_
r38.0
r41.7
r42.0
r41.3
r38.4
40.5
38.1
41.1
34.9
42.6
37.7
41.4
43.0
41.2
37.6
_
4
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Mi 11 ions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
4
23,715
24,263
(61)
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals.
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines*
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
_
3,591
1,886
4
(53)
3,646
4
1,994
_
3,470
1,794
...
_
4
2,108-
1,979
2,254
...
...
4
3,590
427
571
226
-\
+r
4
3,564
429
598
217
3,945
455
...
668
327
+
...
-J
_
4
...
2,246
2,009
4
4
...
4
3,679
309
...
681
203
•I
r
...
3,588
302
_j_
4
-
-
4
622
240
...
4
4
4
?QQ
302
~
;
298
+
4
4
4
4
4
+ r26,371
_
25,144
(75)
3,783
2,091
+
...
4
2,334
...
4
4
4
3,840
:)
4
4
385
...
712223
4
4
4
+
269
4
4
23, 545
2
(65)
r4,108
p2,383
(56)
4
4
...
4
_
. . .-
4
4
3,467
1,905
4
_
-
4
4
3,612
1,971 ...
4
+
4
23,381
2
(56)
4
4
-\
+}
_
23,416
2
(38)
23,726
(65)
...
A
-J
_
4
4
4
4
292
313
4
4,135
(NA)
...
4
p2,774
...
p3,885
p295
...
p646
p244
(NA)
4
_
...
4
...
(NA)
;}
(NA)
_
4
4
4
(NA)
(NA)
...
4
...
p282
4
(NA)
4
4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
•^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
2
Based on 34 components.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
58 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
Table 4
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1968
1967
Diffusion index components
June
July
August
October
September
November
December
January
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 -Continued
(Mi II ions of dollars)
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment t
Electronic components.
flthpr plprtriral marhinpn/*
3,579
3,455
j
+\
+/
4
4
883
_
+
733 4
+
44
\-
4-
*vtnnp rl/iv anrl 0I/K9 total
4
Other durable goods, total
4
+}
r722 «.•/
r644
HA
4
4
/» T , \
(NA)
+;
+
_
(NA)
4-
p6,799
r7,117
r5,673
?A
WA
4
4-
•f
4-
4-
44-
44-
4-
4
_
_
6,241
^A
NA
P74-9
4+
4-
6,019
ft A
4-
(NA)
-*}
4-
4-
764
4
5,950
p714-
4-
4-
4
o
4
4
4
659 +
^}
999
4
p3,631
r3,315
4
804 +
+
4
3,473
4"
4
+
889
4-
4
4
4
638
794-
4
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft!
Aircraft partsf
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
3,554,
j>
4
6,697
7,327
Transportation equipment
3,64,0
-?
733 +t
4
4-
+
4-
4-
44.
4*
4.
+
4-
...
4-
95.30
95.04
(71)
(64)
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
_
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 = 10)
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
91.43
(51)
+
4-
93.01
4
4+
4-f
4
(82)
94.49
(78)
4
95.81
95.66
(57)
(32)
4
92.66
(8)
4
4
4
4
4
4+
4
4
4
4
4
44
4
4
"'
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
+
+
9
t
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
...
4
4
-j.
4
o
4
4
4
4
-j.
-j-
. . .,
4
_l_
4.
_l_
4
1
i
4
4
...
4
+
4
4.
-j.
+
4
_^_
(
4-
4
4
4
4
-f
_j-
I
4.
j
4
+
4
j
!
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-f-
4
_l_
_l_
i
4
-f.
4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
f These industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 76 components "beginning with July 1967.
x
59
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
FEBRUARY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
June
July
August
September
October
November
February l
January
December
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59=100)
99,8 «,
4.
98.3 ~
98,1
-.
97. a
-
97.7
4
99.1
4
100.1 -.
!
99.8
_
99.3
(Ooflars)
(46)
(46}
(54)
(69)
(19)
(31)
.452
.366 4
.382 4
,368
,385 4
,385
,061
.062
.062
.065 4- - .065
,064
28.756 4- 29.774
29,016
27,195 4- 30-174
27,451
1.510
1,486 •i1.456 Hh
' 1.550
1.557
1,528
.140
.140
.139
,141
.141 4.142
.133
,135
,134 4.
.139
,145
.145 *
4
4.
444,237
,254
.239
,231
.223
. .219
,192 4*
.193
.193
,193 4,193
,194
1.588 4- 1.591
-1.646
1.677
1.523
1,603
.152 4.159
,152
.152 4.166
.153 44
10,938
10,971 o 10,971
10.721 4> 10.872
10.949
.171
.200
.185
,195
,209
.214
.046
.050
,052
.050 4.049
.051
Percent rising of 73 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
44+
444~
44.
Hh
4-
4.
4.
+
H4,
4,
,+
(38)
(62)
(46)
.529
.494 4.473 4,
.060 4- • • .061
.060
:
29.155
29,723 4- 29,840
1.470
1.496
1.547
,139
.139 t
,139 4.132
,125
,129,
.253
.264
.275
.198 +
.199
.195 44
1,563 ± 1,594
1,553
.154
.167
.164
10.796
10.839
10.894
,166
,171
,177
, .042
.045
.044 4
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims . . .4
Northeast region:
Boston (6)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (22)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26).
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23).
Kansas City (19).
Milwaukee (17)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (18)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24) . ...
San Francisco (7)
Seattle (16)
.
26J
225
4*
4-
i
215
4-
(72)
' (34)
(55)
Percent rising of 47 components
4-
209
O
209
4-
(38)
(61)
4
4
4
4
4*
4*
4.
4-
44
4
4
4"
4
4.
4
4
4-
44*
4.
4-
4*
4
4-
4-
44
4
•f
4-
4
4
Hh
'4-
4-
4
4.
4-
4
-4,
4-
4.
4V
4
4"
4*
4,
4,
4
4-
4*
4, ,
44,
4
4
4
44.
4
4
4
-*.
4-
4-
444
4-
44
4-
4*
4-
2H
(26)
4
4
4
"
4-
4
4
198
(47)
4-
4
. .
+
4,
4
4,
201
(74)
44.
4-
4-
4-
«
4-
4.
44.
4-
4-
4..
m
._.;
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-rflonth directions of ctiaflge are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numhers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Average for February 19, 20, and 21.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank.
2
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
60
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1968
1967
Diffusion index components
June
November r
October
September
August
July
Januaryp
December
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural establishments
4-
65,903 + 65,939
(72)
(53)
4-
4*
4-
149
512
371
498
1,037
1,048
1,372
1,251
1,377
285
340
1,201
75
841
1,239
535
673
583'
119
362
302
619
3,187
4,266
3,555
10,093
3,227
10,035
2,747
8 889
4
44,
Percent rising of 30 components ..,...,...
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Servke and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
444.
-f
444-f
44~
4*
44A
4-f
4444.
151
508
-.
366
o
493
1,023. 41,041 4.
1,366 441,265 41 32640
2&5 n
339
1,185
76
4
834 41,220 4
536
4
4674
4585 o
119
362 4.
O
295 44
623
43,231
4
4,292
O
3,555 4
o 10,092
3,234 44"
4
10 074 4.
2,759
4"
4-
Q
4.
8 Q10
4"
66,055 4-
66,190
(58)
(35)
155
509 _.
369 4,
497
1,024
1,048 -.
1,375
1,290
1.410
285
337
1,148 4
72
839 4
1,223
534
673
585
118
401 4
299 4,
606
3,223 4*
4,283
3,569
10,095 4
3,253 4
10 130 4.
2,746
Q
4.
8 Q&7
154 4
508 4
370 4494 4
1,003 41,023 41,365
1,260 41 297
281 4
336
1,175 4
69 4842 4
1,218 4
527
4.
669
585
120
407
300
601
3,238
4,262
3,565
10,154
3,264
10 161
2,715
$ Q*n
O
4
4~
4-
4.
444,
66, 243 l
(75)
157
513
374
500
1,009
1,024
1,329
1,270
1 2$Q
283
335
1,185
70
847
1,223
531
669
594
121
408
303
597
3,236
4,251
3,567
10,209
3,270
10 199
2,712
Q fttl
:
4-
66,918 '4. -67,110
^ (80)
(92)
O
4444»
4.
4-f
4,
4,
4444444444O
444"
44*
4,
157 4,
515
377
505
1,031
1,045
1,372
1,289
1 380
285
338
1,188
77
848
1,231
533
673
595
121
412
306
597
3,289
4,287
3,602
10, 298
3,290
10 297
2 698
4.
4444,
4,
4.
4444»
4*
4444.
444*
4-
44»
4»
Q T3&
6? , 146
(55)
162
r!59 4,
520
r519 +
r384 4-_
387
511
r514
1,023
rl,D32 _1,059
r 1,060
1,361
1^333 4.
1,302
1,295 4,
1 A10
rl*405 4,
288
r287 4*
348
r340 4rl,190 41,196
72
r74
r855
853
r 1,237
1,224
r536
535
- r672 4674
598
r598 O
121
r!20
413
r414
306
307
r599
596
3,226
r3,346
4,288
r4,290 O
3,592
r3,592 o
rlO,272 4. 10,304
r3,303 4^ 3,311
rlO 333 4" 10 367
2,703
r2 708
•«Q 177
Q 2?6
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59=100)
All industrial production
r>
Percent rising of 24 components 2 m
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
4-
o
4-
155.6
(56)
4-
129.0
160.8
4-
181.3
172.4
169 3
184.1
44.
4-
133^5
114.9
44-
166-3
156,7
156.6
(58)
4-
129,6
159.8
(67)
156 8
(42)
129.3
159.1
129.2
158,1
158.1
4.
4-
4.
rl6l 8
(83)
44-
rl40.4
rl63. 0
4*
4"
181.3
186 3
165 6
185 4
4*
179*5
r!85 . 7
177 4
186.5
4.
4.
rl43.5
pi 21. 8
4.
4.
171.3
rl56.8
rl56 9
(56)
4-
rl31.7
44-
134.9
159.7
4.
4-
r!58.2
159.5
(88)
182.2
177,1
170 8
182.9
44.
4.
4.
182.6
183.2
171 9
183.2
182.1
182 4
159 2
183 1
4,
177.2
182 8
rl59 2
183 2
134.1
115.5
4-
136.9 4.
109.2 4-
138.4
114.3
44-
139!7
117.0
4-
139.2
120.6
162.7
155,4
4-
164.8
154.9
166^3
156.4
4-
166.6
155.0
44"
167.8
155.1
4,
4*
161 2
(29)
4*
4.
136
165
182
185
176
188
133
I4b
(NA)
44,
173
159
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
-"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
61
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
beef
FEBRUARY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
July
June
September
August
October
November
December
January
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION^Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather ..............
Texti le mi 1 1 products.
Apparel products* • • • . . . • . . . • • • • . • • • • • •
4
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods, beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
4-
136.6
142.4
105.4
44-
151.6
147.8
4-
4-
199.9
134.4
166,9
4-
131.9
123.9
4
44-
4-
4
4-
136.8
144.2
103.0
444-
149*0
146,3
4-
201.0
132.8
170.1
_
4-
44-
138.7
146.4
106,5
444-
152.8
148.6
4*
200.7
133.2
203.1
4-
131.7
121.4
~
w
4-
141.3
146,8
106.4
4*
*.
4-
Hh
rl56.1
r!45«5*
4- •
«. ;
p!57.9
rl44.3 «.
4-
r205.5 4r!37.6 4r 199.1 4-
206,7
rl38.8
p205,5
4-
r!97.4
p209,8
rl32.a
pl!5.5
4-
115.3
126.4
4_
116.1
124.6
4-
r!54,5
144.3
44-
4-
202.3
137.0
202.4
4-
131.2
4-»
132.2
118.0
4-
112,3
r 126.1
4
_
4-
4-
(MA)
pl4#
4-
4
4
+
4-
122.5
121.6
133.9
133.3
4-
4-
122.6
129.1
4-
4-
119.7
133.7
4-
4-
_
120.2
117.2
131.2
105.7
136.6
115.5
127.5
-.
95.6
136.5
_
_
93.8
132,9
«.
4-
(NA)
4-
P94.9
p!43.2
4-
107.2
4-
107.6
p!98
p!32
(HA)
(HA)
rl31.9
p!33.2
r93.2
r!39.0
(HA)
pl44
(NA)
(HA)
(HA)
pi39.a
4-
«.
4-
(HA)
4-
131.5
123.6
pl42
(MA)
(MA)
(MA)
4*
4-
152,9
145.4
*.
r!46.5
p!52.8
(HA)
rl47.4
p!49,0
pll3.4
r!44.9
r!46.2
r!09,7
Hh
^
pill
p!26
pll8
(HA)
(NA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries
4-
106.6
4-
(50)
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
40
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment.
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
44-
o
4_
4-
4-
4-
4O
O
4-
104.7
100.8
103.9
103.3
118.7
104.9
113.7
113.1
109.1
101.8
101.4
109.6
112.6
99.7
103.2
85.8
106.7
103.9
98.5
103.1
95.8
115.6
106.8
0
444-
4440
_
_
4.
4_
4444O
4-
(66)
(64)
4,
106.8
107.1
o
(75)
4-
4-
4-
104.0
118.6 4105 . 14113.8 4113.2 -f
118.9
105.5
114.2
113.6
4-
119.4
105.6
114.1
114.0
4
109.1
101.7
101.3
109.7
109.4
101.6
101.3
110.0
109.7
101.5
101.5
110.2
4-
113.1
98.9
103.3
85.5
107.1
104.1
98 3
103.3
95.8
115.2
4+
4-
4_
O
4-
_•
_
44-
44-
112.1
98.8
102.9
85.9
107.3
104.0
98.0
104.6
97.8
114.4
4
4-
44
4_
44-
44-.
444-
40
108.7
101.2
104.7
112.7
99.2
102.7
86.3
107.4
104.1
97.9
103.9
98.2
114.4
4
+
_
4
O
4
O
44
_
•f
4444*
4
4-
107.3
101.7
104.9
103.9
120.7
105.7
114.1
114.4
109.9
101.5
103.7
110.5
111.7
99.1
102.8
86.9
107.5
104.3
98.2
101.0
98.8
114.8
4
4
4
44
O
44444
4444
O
44-
106.7
102.0
105.1
104.3
44
4+
122.7
105.9
114.1
114.7
4-
110.4
101.6
104,0
110.6
4
110.9
101.2
102.2
88.1
108.0
104.6
98.2
100.4
99.1
115.4
4-
(91)
(77)
(73)
106.1
101.0
104.5
103.5
105.3
100.9
104.2
103.4
107.1
444
4
O
4-
4
4O
+
44
4
4
4-
107.6
102.1
105.3
104.7
123.7
106,1
114.4
115.2
110.8
102.3
104.0
110.7
111.5
104.2
102.2
88.6
108.1
104,8
98.4
99.9
99.2
116,0
108,1
(91)
44
44
4*
4444444-
4444
44_
_
44-
108.6
103.0
106.0
105.5
125.1
106.2
114.7
115.4
112.0
102.7
104.3
111.0
112.4
105.2
102,3
89.3
108.3
105.2
98.2
98.8
99.5
116.5
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
•"•Data
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
62
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 4
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
FEBRUARY 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
June
July
August
September
Novemberr
October
January?
December
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
4
Grocery stores . e
4
26,544
26,444
(£3)
(44)
4
Eating and drinking places
4
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . . 4
4
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel , accessory stores
Fami ly and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores ••
o
Other nondurable-goods stores
•
2,059
2,377
4
228
516
4
4
4
••••
•••••
..\
4
4
4
4
5,516
5,535
4-
5,543
4
2,071
4
2,094
4
2,110
2,305
4
2,354
236
506
4
2,341 4
222 4
516 o
326
596
4
332
594
239
516
4
2,104
2,321
250
508
4
+
340
605
4
322
607
307
575
257
812
450
789
252
254
771
423
786
252
4
241
784
4
397
771
260
4
250
781
4
424
767
258
4
4
4
4,750
319
4,814
316
4
2,040
2,020
4
923
599
903
580
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0 1
(67)
4
O
4
44
5,584
26,402
p5,633
4
27,176
(65)
4
(NA)
4
4
2,133
2,371
239
533
4
(39)
-
p2,108
P2.368
p231
P531
4
p309
p555
4
4
(NA)
(HA)
(NA)
(NA)
4,731
322
4
4
4,891
333
2,003
4
2,028
913
597
O
4
4,361
346
4
901
599
4
4
2,015
912
600
—
»..
4
4
4
4
4
4
324
578
•^
4
249
782
4
454
774
247
4
4,331
361
4
4
4
2,064
4
4
p241
p787
p459
p849
p245
4
(NA)
(NA)
4
4
(NA)
4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4
4
4
26,411
4
4
244
775 4
450
754 4
260 r>
4
*~
4
4
(37)
(76)
4
4
-f
26,089
26,732
4
4
•
4
(61)
4
4
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumberyards building materials dealers • • • • • • • •
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers ....*...
..••..
Passenger car and other automotive dealers.
Tire battery accessory dealers
Drug and proprietary stores
Liouor stores
••
Jewelry stores
5,500
5,548
4
26,422
4
4
928
601
4
4
4
p4,378
p328
p2,019
p944
P589
4
4
4
4
4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
—
4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+)= rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
63
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
". March 1882
(x)
18
8
32
15
65
30
22
46
13
34
36
(x)
(x)
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
May 1885
April 1888
May. 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890 . .
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910 • •
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
i§
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929. .
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948 .
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
^8
41
34
93
93
~Z5
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
-9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 . .
10 cycles, 1919-1961 . .
4 cycles, 1945-1961...
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961 . .
8 cycles, 1919-1961 . . .
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . .
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
!49
54
3
46
2
4
5
6
46
48
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
25
2
cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
^ cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
4
5
7
6
cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning inSelected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
30.
38
6
10.
29.
Dec. '60
'61
'61
'61
'61
'60
Apr.
Mar.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) May ' 24 Jan. '21
Apr. '38 Mar. '33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Dec. '37 Dec. '32 May ' 27 July '24 Dec. '20
Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
IstQ
Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
IstQ
'58 Nov. '53 Apr. '49
'58 Feb. '54 June '49
'57 Sep. '53 June '49
'58 4thQ '53 2ndQ '49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Apr. '38 June '32
2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 2ndQ '21
Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . Jan.
Jan.
Index of net business formation
New orders durable goods industries ...... Jan.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Mar.
New building permits, private housing units. . Dec.
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23 Industrial materials prices
19. S(ock prices, 1500 common stocks
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113. Change in consumer installment debt
'60
'60
'60
'61
Apr.
May
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
Sep.
'54
'54
'54
'53
'54
'53
Apr.
July
July
June
Apr.
Jan.
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 May '49
Apr. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Jan. '49
Dec. '37 Apr. '32
Feb. '38 Feb. '32
Aug. '27
(NA)
June '24 Mar. '21
(NA)
(NA)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments. Feb. '61 May '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
May ' 61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 May '33
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
(NSC)
(NSC)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
4thQ '21
IstQ '61 IstQ '58 2ndQ ' 54 2ndQ '49. IstQ '38 3rdQ '32
47.
52.
816
54
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retai 1 stores
Oct. '49
July '49
Oct. '49
(NSC)
May '38
May '3.8
(NA)
May '38
July '61 Aug. '58 Oct. '54 Nov. '49
(NA)
Feb. '61
(NSC)
Jan. '61
Apr. '61
Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.
'58 Apr. '54
'58 Apr. '54
'58 Aug. '54
'58 Jan. '54
July '32 Nov. '27
Mar. '33 4 t h Q ' 2 6
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
Mar. '33
July '24 Apr. '21
2 n d Q ' 2 4 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Mar. '22
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (0)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
2ndQ '61 3rdQ '58 IstQ '55
4thQ '49
3rdQ '38
IstQ '33
4thQ '27
Mar. '61 Aug. '58
Oct. '54
Dec.^ '49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '61 June '59
Sep. '55
July '50
June '40
July '33
(NSC)
(NSC)
Apr. '22
July '58 Oct. '54
Aug. '49
Dec. '38
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55
IstQ '50
3rdQ '41
(NSC)
Feb. '28 Nov. '24
Sep. '22
(NSC)
NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as
the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent
business cycles.
NA= Not available.
66
NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
Appendix B.-SPEC1F1C TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS-Continued
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
May
1937
Nov.
1948
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing
30. Nonagri cultural placements, all industries. . .
38. Index of net business formation
6. New orders, durable goods industries
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . .
29. New building permits, private housing units. .
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113 Change in consumer installment debt
June
July
Apr.
Apr.
Sep.
Nov.
' 59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'55 Mar. '53
'55 Feb. '53
'55 Sep. '52
'55 Jan. '53
'56 May ' 51
'55 Nov. '52
Dec.
Nov.
July
2ndQ
'59
'59
'59
'59
Apr.
Dec.
July
4thQ
'56
'55
'56
'55
June '59
Aug. '59
Oct. '55
Mar. '55
Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
2ndQ
(NA)
(NSC)
Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NA)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '46
(NA)
(NSC) Nov. '25 Jan. '23
Aug. '4-8 Dec. '36
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '48
Oct. '47 Feb. '37 Feb. '28 July '25 Jan. '24 July '19
(NA)
(NA)
'53 July '46
'51 Jan. '48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29
'53 June '48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'53 2ndQ '48 4thQ '36 3rdQ '29
Jan. '51 June '48 Mar. '37 July '29
Dec. '52 Mar. '48 Mar. '36 May ' 29
Nov.
(NA)
'25
(NSC)
3rdQ '26
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
Mar. '23 July '19
(NA)
2ndQ '23
Sep. '26
(NA)
June '22 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NA)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments. Apr. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Sep. '48 July '37 Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Feb. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Jan. '48 July '37
43. Unemployment rate total (inverted)
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
IstQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (0)
47.
52
816.
54
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores
'53 July '48 May ' 37 July '29 Mar. '27 May ' 23 Feb. '20
(NA)
'53 Oct. '48 June '37 Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'53 Aug. '48
(NSC) July '20
(NSC)
(NSC)
Sep. '37 Sep. '29
'53
Jan . ' 60
(NSC)
Jan. '60
Apr . ' 60
Feb.
Aug.
Feb.
Aug.
May
' 60
Sep. '57
Oct. '53
Jan. '49
2ndQ '60
3rdQ '57
3rdQ '53
4thQ '48
July '60
Sep. '57
Sep. '53
Feb. '49
'57
'57
'57
'57
July
Oct.
July
Mar.
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (0)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (0)
AthQ '59
AthQ ' 57
(NA)
2ndQ '29
(NA)
4thQ '26
(NA)
(NA)
Dec. '37
(NSC)
(NSC)
'48
Sep. '37
(NA)
(NA)
2ndQ '49
(NSC)
Oct. '29
July '53 Aug.
4thQ '53
3rdQ '37
(NA)
'48
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54- Nov.
(NSC). Sep. '57
(NA)
Oct. '26
(NA)
(NA)
2ndQ '23
2ndQ '20
(NA)
Oct. '23 Nov.
(NA)
(NA)
'20
(NA)
Oct. '23 Feb. '21
NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as the
peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA= Not available.
NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
67
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part L-Average Percentage Changes
Average duration of run
(ADR)
W
Monthly series
Period
covered
Cl
1
c
T/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Cl
1
C
9.78
9.78
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
*L Average workweek of production workers, mfg
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
2.08
4.61
1.66
4.37
1.00
1.41
2.14
1.66
3.11
3
2
4
.73
.95
.80
2.20
2.00
2.17
1.49
1.57
1.53
11.73
4.05
3.65
3.53
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
5.32
4.71
2.16
2.17
3
.75
1.73
1.48
12.57
3.95
3
*38.
13
*6
94.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65- •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
9.38
8.57
3.23
? . &&
<L
DO
&(i
. OD
.60
8 • nn
UU
1
crrt
4.
28
2.24
1.63
1.56
6.61
8.38
3.22
6.13
1.42
1.61
-| ryrt
-L • ^O
1 . J?
^Q
-L
8 .#n
ou
/ oy
4.^4
3.81
.66
.83
.69
.79
2.71
1.85
3.62
6.42
1.15
2.35
9 . <L07
<C
I
4.08
2.54
.53
.95
1O
2 • J-<C
-] / rt
-L .H-O
.79
ji
2
3
2
5
1.57
1.45
9.26
3.44
4.58
4.06
4.27
3.65
1.39
1.50
3.07
2.43
4
3
.85
.85
1.80
1.89
1.63
1.61
8.80
12.57
3.33
3.41
8.47
7.24
8.38
6.97
1.05
1.48
7.96
4.71
6
5
C1)
.92
1.52
1.63
1.47
1.51
13.54
8.67
3.00
2.78
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
3.90
3.34
1.66
2.02
3
.66
1.93
1.56
12.57
3.28
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
6.46
5.38
2.83
1.90
3
.75
2.35
1.61
7.65
3.70
Ian '^-<\pn
Jail,
jo OC|J. 'K7
0/» .
4.99
4.53
1.88
<£ • H-.L
P 41
jQ
rjc
• i -)
1 . O_?
#£>
-L
1 .OJL
AT
JL
J.U . 3D
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
7.42
5.73
4.04
1.42
2
.92
3.09
1.83
8.00
3.89
1.30
1.01
1.84
2
2
3
5
3
.92
.56
.85
(i\
( )
2.15
1.60
1.71
11.73
3.80
4.38
4.24
.80
2.55
2.44
2.48
1.49
1.85
1
1
.73
.80
3.74
2.98
Layoff rate manufacturing
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations.
New orders durable goods industries
Construction contracts, value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 ••
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries . Jan.
. '53-Sep. '67 ••
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial, floor space
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- 1, Private nonfarm housing starts . ,
Jan. '59-Sep. '67 ••
*29. New building permits, private housing
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
*23. Industrial materials prices
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing.
14 Liabil ities of business failures
39. Delinquency rate, installment credit loans
.46
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . 1.32
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . 2.46
.63
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '65. • 18.74
Jan. '53-Dec. '65- - 2.63
.40
.19
.79
1.04
1.65
1.64
.51
18.24
1.70
2.42
.28
.95
10.72
2.55
-i n or
9.78
6.07
-2 I (L
-> • -LO
o 0-17
-5 .8/
1 QQ
-L . -J s
A . QZ.
O
77 H-
2 . (L->
1.57
8.44
4.17
1.74
1.48
.12.57
7.65
3.74
2.98
i . _}t+
^A
-L
i
-i 170
-LJ- . /_?
19.56
29.33
4.89
3.89
00
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
46. Help-wanted advertising
511 Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
*41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments
42 Total nonagricultural employment
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
3.09'
2.96
1.71
1.79
Ian 'R3-^pn
Jull.
JO OC[J«'fi7
o/« .
•
H-JJ
/o
o-i
. .2JL
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- •
.31
.35
.14
.28
2.34
2.22
. ?n
j>u
.27
.20
.73
.80
i• U
m
-L
.3
.53
2.17
2
.75
? • o£.7
<.
i
-L • -> (i.
1 5?
8.00
-a . Q#
-3
;7O
1
2
.75
.87
5.03
3.35
1.81
1.52
8.38
6.56
5.03
3.98
1.64
11.73
3.52
1 .54
£j. 14
5 . 00
J_?
-i o cy
1J. 54
rtQ
2 .89
3.00
2.08
1.45
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '54-Sep. '67. .
4.18
5.89
2.34
4.91
3.13
3.14
1.56
*47. Industrial production
*52 Personal income
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Ion ' Do-oep.
CQ Can 'C7
Jan.
b/- •
*816 Manufacturing and trade sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
55. Wholesale prices, industrial
commodities
58 Wholesale prices manufactured goods
114. Treasury bill rate
116. Corporate bond yields.
115. Treasury bond yields
117. Municipal bond yields
Ion ' C O Con 'C7
Jan.
bo-oep. b/' •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
. rto83
1.00
.89
1.44
.70
) rt
. 54
. 5U
.77
.63
.57
1.35
.47
1.62
1.28
.17
.11
.13
Jan ''tt-Spn
Jull.
JO OCp. 'fi7
O/. •
• <cU
on
.1
-LoA
1 O
» J-<C
6.42
1.75
1.65
2.49
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
68
.73
.48
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '59-Sep. '67- •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.75
.51
.26
.76
.53
4.69
1.39
1.29
2.05
4.32
.94
.96
1.18
*s nn
-J . UU
1.39
3.77
K.J
c
<~y
• (->
1.57
1.53
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- •
• -34
2
.53
.74
*43 Unemployment rate total
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate, State programs
40. Unemployment rate, married males
.97
K'-)
. 2<c
1
2
CJ
1
-i
.70
C 1
4.89
3.52
<-\ c
-] J
. 54
3 . JJ
dn
.oU
.76
2. 89
1.54
2
2.32
1.63
16.00
3.65
2
1
.93
.41
2.15
5.68
1.59
14.67
J.2.57
3.72
5.68
.84
OA
1.<£0
1
.84
.1-70
/9
4.09
1.66
3 .26
cj-n
I.8U
9.26
in QC;
1U.J5
4.09
4.49
1.09
1.47
1.35
1.73
2
3
2
3
.71
.68
.94
.82
2.59
2.67
2.79
2.63
1.71
6.52
1.76
11.56
1.93
7.65
1.89
7.65
3.72
4.08
3.89
4.05
rjn
.80
.41
_L
1
00
C )
.
.
r\s
1.59
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part l.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Average duration of run
(ADR)
T/c
Monthly series
Period
covered
Cl
c
T
T/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Cl
1
C
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES-Continued
LAGGING INDICATORS
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
^an. '53-Sep, '67..
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories . . Jan.
. '53-Sep, '67..
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
of finished goods
Ijan. '53-Sep. '67. .
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and indus. loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks
118 Mortgage yields residential
6.26
2 .U_3
1.77
1.43
K
f\0
0 Q&
J> • 7O
-i
c.
• CO
«/H- • no
\J^y
.37
2
1
.80
.37
1.89
6.77
1.48
1.59
17.60
25.14
3.13
6.77
.53
1
.53
3.59
1.43
16.00
3.59
2
1
.89
.13
2.48
13.54
1.64
1.64
6.07
25.14
13.54
1
i
J-
.62
1.52
9 nn
25.14
1
.78
.90
4.19
1.82
1.64
1.62
10.35
11.80
(X)
.92
.73
(i)
11.80
1.37
1.51 9.14
11.80
1.62
8.50
1.47
9.33
1.46
8.80
1.48
1.43
9.78
1.57
.52
.18
.91
.49
.62
.29
.55
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
.59
.82
.46
.10
.32
.80
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • •
July '61-Sep. '67 • -
.97
.50
?l
• fc-L
.82
.62
• <Lft
*+o
. *+-P
. 56
6 • 1717
/i
9
o^:
-L . <CD
1.44
.13
/•2
(LO
/o
. HO
3.67
i n ^'j
-LU . J I
1
C^(L
* J\->
<c . UU
£ 170
D • /_5
5 A*S
_-> . o_^
4.07
3.67
i n• J^n
J.U
f
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
81. Consumer prices
86. Exports, excluding military aid2
861, [Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
and parts
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
87. General imports2
91. Defense Department obligations, total
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
99. New orders, defense products industries
92. Military contract awards in U.S.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Oct. '67 • •
.19
3.58
Oct.'62-Sep. '67.. 12.55
Jan. '57-Sep. '67 • • 6.44
Jan. '53-Oct. '67 •• 2.87
July '53-Sep. '67 . . 13.58
Jan. '56-Sep. '67-. 26.22
Jan. '53-Sep, '67.. 21.39
Jan. '53-Sep. ' 6 7 - . 20.91
.12
3.36
12.43
6.23
2.69
13.32
26.08
21.27
20.82
.15
.90
.78
3.74
.10.17
3.55
3.09
.87
9.74
1.37
2.00
13.04
1.74
12.25
2.61
7.98
1.22
1.75
4
6
4
4
6
6
6
6
(X)
1.44
1.60
1.79
1.44
1.43
1.56
1.48
2
3
.95
.72
2.84
2.05
1.54
1.57
.93
1
.93
2.84
.80
1
.80
(")
(i)
\ /
4.19
3.41
2.35
2.84
3.48
2.06
1.96
2.44
2.59
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods. .
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled to
number of persons unemployed
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production
workers in manufacturing to consumer prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.99
2.04
.85
1.77
.46
.96
1.84
1.84
8.80
11.00
4.61
4.35
1.63
9.26
2.84
3.26
1.52
8.38
3.26
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.93
Jan. '53-Sep. '67-.
5.54
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.36
.30
.18
1.67
2
.92
2.38
1.60
19.56
3.72
.81
.67
.98
.74
.55
.37
.47
.62
.60
1.21
2.63
1.58
1.71
2.20
2
3
2
2
3
I
2
.56
.94
.75
.87
.63
.95
.98
4.29
2.38
3.45
3.45
2.29
3.59
2.79
1.41
1.45
1.44
1.48
1.48
1.39
1.66
10.35
8.80
25.14
16.00
16.00
13.54
29.33
6.48
4.14
6.25
9.21
4.97
3.59
4.07
.93
.73
.59
2.00
1.68
1.54
11.00
14.67
8.80
12.50
8.70
7.61
.60
3.33
.65
4.15
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
123.
122.
121.
126.
125.
128.
127.
Canada, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • •
United Kingdom, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 ••
OECD European countries, industrial production. . . Jan'. '53-Sep*. '67-.
France, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 ••
West Germany, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • •
Japan, industrial production.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- •
Italy, industrial production.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • •
133.
132.
136.
135.
138.
137.
Canada, consumer prices
United Kingdom, consumer prices
France, consumer prices
West Germany, consumer prices
Japan, consumer prices
Italy, consumer prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.25
.45
.52
.32
.81
.33
143.
142.
146.
145.
148.
147.
Canada, stock prices
United Kingdom, stock prices
France, stock prices
West Germany, stock prices
Japan, stock prices
Italy, stock prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 ••
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 ••
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67-.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
2.77
3.13
4.00
3.34
3.60
3.78
Ian '^3-Qon
JdM.
Do ocp. b/'C7• •
Ian >cjo
»3-<Jpn
Jail,
OcjJ. *K7
D/ » »
1.04
.82
1.19
1.44
1.69
1.43
1.07
1.32
1.17
1.28
.31
.49
.44
.36
.74
.35
2.13
2.49
3.35
2.03
2.44
3.00
1.23
.95
.72
1.78
.19
.27
.39
.22
.38
.31
1.66
1.82
1.14
1.65
1.95
1.14
2
3
2
3
3
2
9.26
6.29
7.04
8.00
. 75
3.09
.69
.61 19.56
1.33
1.48
1.79
2
2
3
1
2
3
.87
.90
.66
.86
.64
.72
1.61
1.68
1.87
2.37
2.29
1.89
.86
1.07
1.59
3.26
2.63
2.48
3.52
3.26
2.44
n . *7?
i ->
n .AH
DU
1.80
10.35
8.38
6 .96
25.00
1.78
1.71
1.68
1.85
1.68
1.85
11.00
8.00
7.33
7.33
7.04
8.80
3.98
3.72
4.14
3.52
4.49
5.12
-]
-L
.Q&
yd
1.64
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
69
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes—Continued
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
I/C
C
1
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
C
1
QCD
QUARTERLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
11. New capital appropriations manufacturing .....
*16. Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing
110. Total private borrowing
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
9.31
5.16
4.62
2.77
6.89
3.99
.67
.69
l
.67
.69
3.05
3.05
1.29
1.29
3.41
4.83
3.05
3.05
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
4.08
5.59
2.54
3.41
6.17
2.95
3.67
8.16
.86
.93
.76
1
1
l
.86
.93
.76
2.52
2.64
2.23
1.26
1.32
1.29
5.27
3.87
3.62
2.52
2.64
2.23
.23
.30
.24
.16
6.44
3.41
1.35
1.29
1.18
8.29
6.44
6.44
3.41
11.60
11.60
10.95
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
49.
*50.
57.
97.
GNP in current dollars
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
GNP in 1958 dollars
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
Final sales
• • . • • • IQ'53-IIIQ'67
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing. i!Q'53-IIIQ'67
1.54
1.23
1.40
5.36
.34
.33
.32
.84
1.46
1.11
1.37
5.21
.23
.30
.24
.16
1
1
l
3.13
.74
2.91
.26
1
11.60
L » -L*+
~\ L
*+
4.14
-]
.26
5.80
1.41
5.80
5.80
3 • pic
U_)
2.64
-1 QO
-L . <c_5
/ H-D
/A
H-.
3•
1.49
3.62
2.64
"50
-L . -JeL
LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product
(1958 dol.) nonfinancial corporations
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans
1Q'53-IIIQ'67
. e:£
^O
-i-L
. cd
2O
IQ'53-IHQ'67
2.23
1.02
2.05
.50
1
.50
IQ'53-IIIQf67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-1IIQ'67
3.01
3.75
2.33
1.73
2.91
.73
1
.73
.82
2.39
2.15
1.99
1.36
.41
2
1
.52
.41
2.32
1.76
2.76
1.29
1.23
1.23
3.41
4.46
4.83
2.32
2.71
2.76
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
2.18
.85
1.77
.48
1
.48
2.90
1.41
3.87
2.90
IQf53-IIIQ'67
IQ'56-IIIQ'67
8.50
3.78
2
1
.52
.90
1.57
2.09
1.29
1.44
3.62
3.29
3.17
2.09
lO1 K3 IIIIVC7
/o
• &£
oo
• H-<£
•
170
1C.
fNC
\JJ
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
83. Federal cash receipts from public
82. Federal cash payments to public
101. National defense purchases, current dollars
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
personal income
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing
6.66
2.21
^Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
4.57
2.47
1.46
.90
1
Not shown for series when MOD is "6" or more.
2
Measures based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-March 1963 and December 1964-May 1965
due to effects of strikes.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in part I of this table. More complete explanations appear in
Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau
of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of
Business. October 1957).
"Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
seasonally adjusted series.
"7" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"C* is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
70
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth
series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular
component and the cyclical component over 1-month spans
(Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without regard
to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span.
MCD is the shortest span in months for which the average
percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical
component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and
remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations
in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by
cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an
MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate
time span over which to observe cyclical movements in
quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for
which the average percentage change (without regard to sign)
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1—Continued
in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular
component, and remains so.
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans and for
spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", nq_l/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown
for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally ad justed series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The
MCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number
of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally ad justed series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month
intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is
1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about
95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving
average (MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR
is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CI is 1.73 for the series on
average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance
(series 5). This indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about
as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures
shown in the next two columns, 1.48 for I and 12.57 for C,
suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been
successfully separated into an essentially random component
and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 3.95
for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 2-month
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (2 months
being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average,
about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR from 1.48
for CI to 3.95 for the MCD moving average indicates that,
for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in
the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes
iI/C
/P
Monthly series
Period
covered
Unit of
measure
CI
C
1
I/C
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADfM
\r\Ut\)
CI
1
C
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
Jan.'53-Sep. '67.
Ann. rate
bil. dol..
3.79
20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . . . do. . . 1.51
inventories of materials, supplies
.50
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods industries. Jan. '53-Sep. '67. Bil. dol. .
98. Change in money supply and time deposits .... Jan. '53-Sep. '67. Ann. rate,
2.49
percent .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. ... do. . .
2.89
85. Change in U S money supply
Jan. '55-Sep. '67. Ann. rate
33. Change in mortgage debt
bil. dol..
1.34
Jan.'53-Sep. '67 • . . . d o . . .
•413. Change in consumer installment debt
.86
Aug. '59-Sep. '67. ... do. .
112, Change in business loans
2 77
3.67
.77
4.78
5
.96
1.53
1.45
6.29
2.65
1.45
.47
.29
.13
5.04
3.63
6
5
(1)
.80
1.63
1.69
1.54
1.60
6.52
8.00
2.95
3.44
2.49
2.92
.33
.37
7.45
7.88
6
6
f1)
C1)
1.47
1.44
1.40
1.42
1.26
.78
2 72
.37
.30
28
3.43
2.64
9 78
3
3
6
.98
.90
(i)
1.35
10.13
1.49
1.64
11.00
1.48
1 56 1 5610 78
11.00
11.00
2.85
2.85
2.94
3.16
3 83
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
93. Free reserves
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • Mil. dol. .
93.44
75.38
46.88
1.61
2
.96
2.07
1.59
9.26
3.13
Jan. '53-Oct. '67.
57.74
55.59
15.55
3.58
4
.86
1.62
1.57
9.32
3.55
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
88. Merchandise trade balance 2.
... do. .
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 2.
71
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes-Continued
1/c
Quarterly series
Period
covered
Unit of
measure
Cl
c
1
T/C
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
for
QCD
span
Cl
1
C
QCD
QUARTERLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
IQ'53-IIIQ'67..
Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
2.59
1.69
1.50
1.12
2
.49
1.76
1.35
4.46
3.00
IQ'53-IIIQ'67 ..
IQ'60-IIIQ'67 ..
Mil. dol... 307.88 213.76 199.96 1.07
,..do... 573.37 340.19 324.11 1.05
2
2
.48
.66
1.71
1.88
1.26
1.50
3.05
2.50
2.71
2.07
95 Fed. balance nat'l. income and product acct
IQ'53-IIIQ'67 • -
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit
IQ'53-IIIQ'67 ••
Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
...do...
1
2
.68
.62
2.23
2.00
1.38
1.35
3.62
2.76
2.23
2.28
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
89. U.S. balance of payments:
b Official settlements basis
2.61
4.53
1.36
3.30
2.00
2.44
.68
1.35
1
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
Not shown for series when MCD is "6" or more.
2
Measures based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-March 1963 and December 1964-May 1965 due
to effects of strikes.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
The measures in part 2 are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data.
Thus, "Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed
in the same unit of measure as the series itself.
72
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"T" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown in part 2 have the same meaning
as in part 1.
Appendix D.--CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1967 TO JUNE 1968)
1968
196/
Series
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
13. New business incorporations1
79.2 81.2 107 7 84.1 73.7
106.1 104.4
94.6 98.1 89.5
84.3 101.9 138 5 145.8 112 7 96 0 94 9 79 3
99.4 108.6 105.3 106.1
95.7 87.3 96.5 118.7
80 9
97.3
14 Liabilities of business failures
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing2.
100.4 120.0
106.1
85.2 81.8 101.5
100.3
89.6
98 2 110 1 99 6 97 3
97.9
105.4
119 8
30 Nonagricultural placements all industries1
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies 3
113.1
106.8
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans^
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
110.3
+256
94.4 119.5 102.9
96.7
100.7 113.6 116.3
+152
+34
104.5 101.1 99.2 100.3
97.6
+41
+38
98.8
92.1
113.9
-58
91.3
96.6
79.4
84.1
83.5
-129
+279
-285
-388
92.2
90.9 100.1
99.9 100.7
100 2 203 6
99.0
64 0
98.8 100.1 99.2 99.9 101.5
98 4 108 7 98 7 79 0 101 6
91 Defense Department obligations total
92. Military contract awards in U.S
91.9 151.6
90 1 184.2
98.6
94.4
96.9 107.0
90.7 111.5
112 Change in business loans 5
301 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
98.4
94.3
87.6
80.2
+50
99.2
75 6
98 1 91 5
91 5 93.0
+13
+36
102.2 107.6 112.8 104.2
110.1
107.2
98.8
88.7 103.4 111.7
92.6
99 3
94.2
99 6
88.6
100.9
91.8
99.6 99.5
99.4 101.1
65 1 100 9 103.6 100 4
101.8
2O+.0
91 8
91.8
151.9
188 0
100.2 100.2
119 9 103 2
99.6 99.2 99.4 99.6 99.8 100.6 100.1 99.4 100.3 100.1 99.9
99 7 112 4 111 9 105 7 94 6 80 7 84 1 85 5 95 3 108 4 119 2
100.4
102 5
856 Ratio average earnings to consumer prices
100.3 100.0
99.6
98.9
99.9
862 Index of export orders nonelectrical machinery
D34 Profits manufacturing (FNCB) 6
100 4 100 8
94 4
94 4
94 3 103 9 100.2 100.3 103.8 102.1 107.4 100.6 100.3
-9
99.7 100.1 100.4 100.4
+6
-15
79 2
80.4
+262
100.4
100.1 100.2 100.3
99.9
100.2
+17
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method
II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars,, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census
Method 1 seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method JL seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
73
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-July 1921
1923-July 1924
1926-Nov. 1927
1929-Mar. 1933
1937-June 1938
Feb
Nov
July
July
May
1945-Oct
1948-Oct
1953-Aug
1957- Apr
1960-Feb
19454
1949
1954 5
1958
1961
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions .
4 contractions since 1948
*41. Em-
ployees
in nonagri. establishments
*47. Index
of industrial
production
*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)
1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)
*52. Per-
sonal
income
1
*816. Manufacturing
and trade
sales
*43. Unemployment rate, total
*54. Sales
of retail
stores
-49.6
-11.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-43.5
-17.3
(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
(NA)
-7.5
-7.2
-6.8
-3.1
+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7
+ 2.2
+4.1
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8
-1.9
-2.1
-1.9
-2.8
-2.8
-1.3
-2.0
-2.4
+0.1
-7.0
-5.8
-7.0
-2.2
-2.6
-1.4
+3.3
+3.6
+ 3.3
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0.3
+ 2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-4.0
-1.8
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
-5.7
-6.5
-3.7
-16.0
-16.0
-8.8
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
July
July
Nov
Mar
June
1921-May
1924-Oct
1927-Aug
1933-May
1938-Feb.
1923
1926
1929 ...
1937
19454
*41. Em-
ployees
in nonagri. establishments
*47. Index
of industrial
production
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+64.2
+30.4
+40.2
+45.9
+119.9
+183.3
flrt IQAR-IMnv 1<U8 .
Oct 1949-July 19535
Aug 1954-July 1957
Apr 1958-May 1960
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.9
+ 21.9
Median:6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expansions . .
4. pxnansinns sinre 194R
+17.5
+13.0
+1 3.0
+ 24.1
+50.0
+19.7
+ 25.2
+35.2
+26.6
+ p?_6
*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)
1
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+ 3.3
+ 28.8
+11.8
+11.4
+12.3
+12.1
4-11 ft
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)
*52. Per-
sonal
income
1
*816. Manufacturing
and trade
sales
Rate at
peak
Rate at
trough
2
2
2
+7.9
*+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
Change
in rate,
peak to
trough
+8.8
2
3.2
2
1.9
11.9
*5..5
2
4.1
3
0.0
11.2
25.4
20.0
3
4.0
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.1
3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
6.9
3.5
3.9
4.0
7.2
7.6
7.2
*43. Unemployment rate, total
*54. Sales
of retail
stores
Change
in rate,
trough
to peak
Rate at
trough
Rate at
peak
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+69.2
+105.4
+28.5
(NA)
+63.8
+41.4
+ 22.1
+ 13.3
+50.0
+ 25.6
+ 20.3
+11.9
+0.3
-5.3
-1.8
-2.3
3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
+27.5
+26.7
+29.6
+ 20.9
+21.3
-3.7
-2.6
o n
3.3
3.7
+ 9*5 ?
+ 20.5
+16.0
4.9? n
7.1
6.3
-4-93 A
+19.4
(NA)
£, "7
? Q
+ 25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+ 29.6
+ 13.2
+ 12.2
+73.9
+169.6
+76.3
+157.3
+34.9
+44.1
+ 22.4
+15.1
+ 22.6
+ 16.2
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
2
-8.7
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
2
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
2
3.2
1.9
3.2
11.2
1.1
2
2
3
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.1
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)of T or "2" (series41,43,47,52,and816), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the
base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base
for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list"of 25
indicators.
NA=Not available.
1
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
(trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p.670.
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table "because of change in series used.
^World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
1961
2
Source:
74
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data
are published in this appendix for: (a) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (& series which
have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.
Jan.
Year
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
40.
1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
...
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953
1954 ....
...
...
...
...
2.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959 ....
3.3
2.5
2.6
• *•
4.1
...
...
...
...
•••
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
•..
. .»
.. .
.. .
...
...
.. .
1.6
1.6
2.7
2.7
2.6
5.7
3.2
2.7
2.6
2.6
5.8
3.1
...
.••
• ••
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
.. .
...
...
...
2.3
2.2
1.9
1.7
3.2
3.1
2.5
2.5
2.3
5.1
3.7
3.3
2.5
2.6
5.5
3.2
...
...
...
...
...
1960
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
4.7
3.7
3.7
3.1
2.9
4.8
3.3
3.7
3.0
3.6
4.8
3.6
3.6
2.9
3.4
4.9
3.7
3.4
2.8
3.4
5.1
3.5
3.4
2.6
3.6
4.8
3.7
3.2
2.8
1965 ....
1966 ....
2.7
1.9
2.6
1.9
2.5
1.9
2.5
1.8
2.5
1.8
2.3
1.9
3.3
42.
NOTE:
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (Percent)
.••
. •.
• *.
...
...
2.4
4.6
4.0
4.0
July
June
May
.. .
...
—
...
...
1.7
1.4
1.5
3.6
3.3
2.4
2.9
2.6
5.7
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.7
5.7
3.4
2.5
2.7
3.0
5.1
3.7
2.6
2.6
3.1
4.9
3.9
2.4
2.8
3.5
4.5
4.2
2.3
2.8
3.7
4.5
3.3
3.7
4.8
3.6
3.2
2.7
3.9
4.7
3.7
3.0
2.6
3.9
4.6
3.5
3.0
2.8
4.4
4.2
3.5
3.0
2.9
4.4
4.1
3.6
3.3
2.4
4.7
3.9
3.6
3.3
2.7
2.3
2.0
2.5
1.9
2.2
1.8
2.1
1.8
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.8
Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (Thous.)
49,984
50,385
50,500
50,186
50,338
50,035
50,734
49,836
50,713
49,485
51,152
49,370
51,366
49,169
50,894
49,793
50,648
50,287
50,761
50,455
50,793
50,512
50,756
50,466
50,570
52,808
53,312
54,958
53,951
50,694
52,923
53,442
55,421
54,073
50,612
53,543
53,440
55,590
53,791
51,319
53,167
53,384
55,082
54,043
51,372
53,436
53,861
55,082
53,698
51,767
53,091
53,690
55,095
53,630
51,875
53,555
53,637
55,130
53,421
52,549
53,204
53,616
54,832
53,766
52,583
53,155
53,984
54,708
53,829
52,432
53,374
53,769
54,797
54,028
52,534
53,137
54,239
54,393
54,423
52,669
53,432
54,593
54,048
54,268
54,640
57,163
57,842
57,389
58,387
54,873
57,061
58,131
57,244
58,219
54,722
57,190
58,441
57,170
58,590
55,152
57,154
58,211
57,029
58,875
55,307
57,486
57,986
57,227
58,909
55,538
57,485
58,194
57,240
59,137
56,075
57,480
58,139
57,220
59,447
56,222
57,692
58,061
57,339
59,402
56,131
57,704
58,393
57,728
59,323
56,263
57,838
58,171
57,912
59,556
56,602
57,799
57,983
57,899
59,048
57,031
58,102
57,885
58,028
59,883
59,889
60,356
61,016
62,188
63,727
60,179
60,118
61,252
62,378
64,199
59,714
60,444
61,339
62,641
64,410
60,488
60,341
61,344
62,980
64,892
60,702
60,352
61,728
62,853
65,035
60,750
60,775
61,731
63,015
64,671
60,367
60,455
61,643
63,204
64,761
60,375
60,486
62,102
63,305
64,888
60,512
60,520
62,325
63,52^
64,957
60,177
60,716
62,293
63,589
65,020
60,596
61,009
62,010
63,586
65,267
60,155
60,925
62,297
63,576
65,532
65,774
68,185
65,847
68,179
66,145
68,192
66,165
68,375
66,274
68,488
66,600
68,772
67,056
68,943
66,984
69,230
66,957
69,264
67,243
69,515
67,641
69,915
67,922
69,828
Series 40 includes data for January-October 1954
December 1962.
(not previously shown) and scattered revisions beginning with
Data for series 42 include scattered revisions beginning in 1955.
(February
1968)
75
Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data
are published in this appendix for: r a) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, fb) series which have been revised recently, and Cc) series which
have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index. Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ^(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
June
May
43.
3.6
6.7
3.9
6.8
3.8
6.6
3.7
7.9
3.8
6.4
4.0
6.6
5.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
5.9
5.4
3.2
3.0
2.5
5.6
5.0
3.1
3.2
2.6
5.8
4.5
3.1
3.4
2.7
6.0
4.4
3.3
3.1
2.9
6.1
4.2
3.5
3.0
3.1
5.7
4.2
3.5
2.8
3.5
5.3
4.3
3.1
2.7
4.5
5.0
4.7
4.0
3.9
7.4
5.2
4.3
4.3
4.1
7.4
5.1
4.2
4.3
4.3
7.3
5.0
4.0
4.4
4.2
7.5
5.1
4.2
4.1
4.1
7.4
5.2
4.1
3.9
4.4
7.1
5.5
4.3
3.9
4.5
6.7
5.7
4.2
4.3
5.1
6.2
5.8
4.2
4.2
5.2
6.2
5.3
5.4
6.9
5.6
5.7
5.4
5.2
7.0
5.6
5.6
5.3
5.1
7.1
5.5
5.9
5.1
5.4
6.9
5.5
5.6
5.2
5.5
7.0
5.4
5.6
5.0
5.6
6.6
5.7
5.4
5.0
5.5
6.7
5.6
5.5
5.1
6.1
6.5
5.4
5.5
5.2
6.1
6.1
5.7
5.7
4.8
6.6
6.0
5.5
5.5
4.9
4.7
3.8
4.8
3.7
4.6
3.9
4.6
3.8
4.4
3.8
4.4
3.8
4.4
3.8
4.3
3.8
4.1
3.6
4.0
3.7
3^9
5.3
3.5
6.1
6.5
3.7
3.2
2.9
4.9
6.4
3.4
3.1
2.6
5.2
6.3
3.4
2.9
2.6
5.7
5.8
3.1
2.9
2.7
5.9
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
4.9
4.0
4.2
5.8
6.0
4.7
3.9
3.9
6.4
5.9
4.6
4.2
3.7
6.7
5.6
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
5.2
6.6
5.8
5.7
5.5
4.8
6.9
5.5
5.9
5.4
1965 ....
1966 ....
4.8
3.9
5.0
3.7
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
...
3.6
6.2
4.0
5.0
3.4
4.3
Dec.
...
.. .
...
3.8
4.7
.
...
...
Nov.
...
.. .
...
...
...
....
. •.
Oct.
Sept.
Aug.
Unemployment rate, total (Percent)
...
...
...
1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
July
301.
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
Nonagricultural job openings, unfilled (Thous.)
1945....
1946....
1947 ....
1948....
1949 ....
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
435
309
161
427
291
146
397
270
138
364
279
136
333
265
132
306
263
124
298
253
120
309
240
115
319
240
107
480
322
234
99
464
321
208
104
469
324
178
108
1950....
1951....
1952
1953
1954....
116
276
290
301
156
122
295
285
301
153
124
306
273
302
149
127
298
281
293
143
136
302
275
284
134
149
293
270
274
140
177
284
268
257
146
226
273
277
237
137
207
275
304
219
134
221
278
316
197
137
218
282
313
185
149
240
297
310
170
156
1955....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958....
1959....
160
242
258
147
175
167
236
246
144
182
172
236
236
137
193
178
236
227
139
197
186
239
215
140
205
184
243
212
144
205
198
240
209
153
205
212
243
194
153
207
218
249
186
144
209
231
266
175
159
207
230
252
161
169
210
233
255
147
172
213
1960....
1961....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964....
212
163
221
214
232
211
165
224
219
231
206
172
230
218
230
200
164
236
216
233
193
171
237
211
238
184
181
232
221
241
182
187
232
225
240
176
193
225
222
239
165
198
221
219
246
171
206
219
216
252
171
213
209
223
259
178
222
213
226
254
1965..,
1966..,
263
383
265
401
269
425
277
431
285
426
288
424
298
428
316
424
333
438
345
429
353
414
374
404
NOTE:
Data for series 43 include scattered revisions beginning in I960.
Series 301 includes data for October 1946 through October 1949
November 1949.
(not previously shown) and revisions beginning with
(February
76
1968)
Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data
are published in this appendix for: (a^ new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, f b) series which have been revised recently, and ftf series which
have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
502.
June
May
July
Sept.
Aug.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Percent)
...
...
...
1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
...
...
•
0.5
0.5
•
...
.. •
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.8
0.5
1.0
0.5
1.2
0.5
1.4
0.5
1.5
0*.5
1.6
0.5
1.6
0.5
1.7
0.5
1.6
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1.5
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.6
1.5
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.8
1.5
0.6
0.4
0.3
1.2
1.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
1.2
1.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.4
1.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
1.4
1.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
1.5
1.0
0.4
0.3
0.3
1.6
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.6
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.6
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.4
1.5
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.5
1.3
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1.4
0.8
0.8
1.3
2.1
1.3
0.8
0.8
1.5
1.9
1.3
0.8
0.8
1.7
1.8
1.3
0.7
0.8
2.1
1.5
1.1
0.8
0.8
2.2
1.4
1.0
0.8
0.8
2.5
1.4
1.0
0.8
0.8
2.6
1.3
0.8
0.8
0.8
2.8
1.3
0.9
0.9
0.8
2.6
1.3
0.9
0.8
1.0
2.5
1.3
0.9
0.9
1.0
2.3
1.4
0.9
0.9
1.1
2.2
1.3
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1.3
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.4
2.1
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
2.3
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.1
2.4
1.6
1.6
1.3
1.2
2.3
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.3
2.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.3
2.3
1.5
1.6
1.3
1.4
2.2
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.7
2.1
1.4
1.5
1.2
1.7
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.6
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.2
1965 ....
1966 ....
1.1
0.8
1.2
0.8
1.1
0.8
1.1
0.8
1.0
0.7
1.1
0.6
0.9
0.6
1.0
0.6
1.0
0.6
0.9
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.9
511.
O.o
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (Bil. man-hours)
1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949
92.18
93.78
92.64
92.05
93.30
92.40
91^99
93.76
91.60
91.24
92.67
91.10
91.79
93.52
90.75
92.07
94.19
90.07
91.56
94.44
89.70
91.82
94.35
89.79
92.62
94.31
89.89
93.04
93.93
88.23
93.24
94.00
88.86
93.82
93.71
89.31
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953
1954 ....
89.56
99.12
100.93
104.27
100.84
89.13
99.31
101.31
104.68
101.29
90.88
99.71
100.91
105.05
100.85
91.42
100.26
100.45
104.93
100.52
92.73
100.10
100.99
104.53
99.92
93.86
100.13
100.10
104.54
99.93
94.82
100.18
99.61
104.40
99.76
96.76
99.82
101.12
103.80
99.67
96.65
99.52
102.94
102.81
99.64
97.20
99.35
103.16
103.63
100.15
97.87
99.98
103.40
102.55
101.30
97.67
100.40
104.43
102.05
101.56
1955 ....
1956
1957
1958
1959
101.70
107.23
108.11
105.30
106.68
102.27
107.51
108.88
103.54
106.86
103.44
107.02
108.70
103.13
107.76
103.57
107.84
108.11
102.40
108.75
104.77
107.52
108.14
102.46
109.31
104.91
107.82
107.94
102.58
109.56
105 . 20
106.58
108.04
102.83
109.28
105.43
107.85
108.12
103.43
108.34
106.09
107.90
107.48
104.46
108.06
106.30
108.48
106.46
104.46
107.94
106.81
108.69
106.08
105.52
108.40
107.27
109.01
105.88
105.80
110.06
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
110.36
108.13
110.04
113.55
115.02
110.52
108.25
111.55
113.73
116.70
110.17
108.17
112.25
113.93
117.14
110.70
108.04
112.76
114.63
117.30
110.41
108.72
112.89
114.84
117.54
110.27
109.23
113.03
115.17
117.81
110.25
109.69
113.05
115.28
118.13
110.15
109.98
113.18
115.35
118.43
109.57
109.54
113.68
115.78
118.45
109.40
110.35
113.06
116.16
118.76
108.79
111.21
113.50
116.09
119.97
107.21
111.06
113.38
116.26
121.01
1965 ....
1966
121.18
126.73
121.93
127.89
122.43
128.71
122.24
128.23
122.85
128.27
122.87
129.52
123.28
129.45
124.07
130.00
124.06
129.86
124.71
130.52
125.70
131.11
126.50
131.13
NOTE:
...
Series 502 includes scattered revisions beginning in 1962.
Series 511 is revised beginning with January 1947.
(February 1968)
77
Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data
are published in this appendix for: fa) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, fb) series which have been revised recently, and f& series which
have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the sym bo I ®(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
855.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
R a t i o , nonagri cultural job openings u n f i l l e d to number of persons unemployed ( R a t i o )
1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
0.152
0.062
0.125
0.051
0.113
0.046
0.117
0.042
0.125
0.036
0.119
0.033
0.114
0.029
0.102
0.027
0.104
0.026
0.104
0.020
0.091
0.026
0.073
0.027
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
0.029
0.120
0.147
0.164
0.051
0.031
0.139
0.146
0.184
0.046
0.032
0.144
0.151
0.183
0.041
0.036
0.155
0.155
0.170
0.038
0.040
0.163
0.148
0.178
0.036
0.044
0.147
0.143
0.171
0.039
0.057
0.146
0.135
0.155
0.040
0.081
0.141
0.133
0.142
0.036
0.075
0.133
0.157
0.120
0.034
0.084
0.127
0.172
0.100
0.037
0.084
0.129
0.180
0.084
0.044
0.091
0.152
0.186
0.060
0.049
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
....
....
....
....
....
0.051
0.091
0.092
0.038
0.043
0.056
0.091
0.094
0.033
0.046
0.059
0.085
0.094
0.030
0.051
0.058
0.089
0.087
0.028
0.055
0.068
0.084
0.079
0.028
0.059
0.068
0.084
0.074
0.029
0.060
0.075
0.081
0.075
0.030
0.058
0.076
0.090
0.071
0.030
0.058
0.081
0.094
0.063
0.030
0.055
0.082
0.103
0.058
0.035
0.053
0.083
0.088
0.047
0.040
0.052
0.084
0.091
0.042
0.041
0.058
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
0.059
0.035
0.054
0.053
0.058
0.063
0.034
0.058
0.052
0.059
0.055
0.035
0.059
0.054
0.058
0.055
0.034
0.060
0.053
0.060
0.054
0.034
0.061
0.050
0.063
0.049
0.037
0.060
0.055
0.063
0.047
0.038
0.061
0.055
0.066
0.045
0.041
0.056
0.057
0.065
0.042
0.042
0.056
0.055
0.066
0.040
0.045
0.057
0.054
0.067
0.039
0.050
0.052
0.054
0.073
0.039
0.053
0.055
0.057
0.070
1965 ....
1966 ....
0.074
0.130
0.071
0.143
0.077
0.149
0.078
0.154
0.084
0.145
0.084
0.146
0.090
0.148
0.097
0.146
0.102
0.153
0.108
0.149
0.116
0.152
0.124
0.141
.! !
857.
1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ____
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
____
....
....
....
....
1960 ....
1961 ____
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
1965
1966
5.6
4.8
5.7
6.1
7.2
8.0
7.7
7.2
7.3
7.7
7.5
NOTE:
Vacancy rate in private rental housing (Percent) (u)
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
5.4
4.9
6.0
6.7
7.3
8.1
7.4
7.5
7.4
7.5
6.8
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
5.8
5.2
5.8
6.6
...
...
...
...
7.6
7.9
7.3
7.6
7.7
...
...
...
...
...
7.2
6.8
...
...
...
...
...
5.3
5.3
6.0
6.4
7.6
7.7
7.4
7.5
7.5
7.7
7.0
Series 855 is revised beginning w i t h January 1948.
Series 857 is revised beginning w i t h 1st quarter 1956
(February 1968)
78
...
...
...
...
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
Appendixes
Tables
Page
Issue
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
*1.
*30.
2.
5.
3.
301.
46.
Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg.
Nonagricultural placements, all indus
Accession rate, manufacturing
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Nonagri. job openings unfilled
Help-wanted advertising
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...
9
9
9
9
9
17
17
33
33
33
33
33
38
38
511.
*41.
42.
*43.
45.
40.
*502.
Man-hours in nonagri.establishments
Employees in nonagri. establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
C ...
C...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
Lg....
17
17
17
18
18
ig
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
41
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
18
18
IS
19
19
19
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
66-7
66-7
68
68
77
66
76
66
76
76
76
73
73
73
68
66-7
66-7
66-7
68
68
68
68
68
68
69
74
74
Oct. '67
Oct. '631
Sept. '67
July '631
Sept. !67
Feb. '68
Dec. '67
77
77
75
76
76
75
77
Feb.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
Dec.
Feb.
Feb.
'68
'67
'68
'68
'67
'68
'68
73
73
77
74
74
77
74
72
July
July
Dec.
July
July
Apr.
July
Apr.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'66
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
49.
*50.
*47.
*52.
53.
*816.
57.
*54.
GNP in current dollars ..
GNP in 1958 dollars
Industrial production
Personal income
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., constr.
Manufacturing and trade sales
Final sales
Sales of retail stores
19
19
66-7
66-7
66-7
66-7
66-7
70
70
68
68
68
68
70
68
74
74
74
74
74
74
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
*38.
13.
*6.
94.
*10.
11.
24.
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts, value
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
New capital appropriations, mfg
New orders, mach. and equip, industries
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
10
10
10
10
10
n
11
33
33
34
34
34
34
34
9.
7.
*29.
96.
97.
*61.
505.
Construction contracts, comm. and indus
Private nonfarm housing starts
New building permits, private housing
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg
Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip
Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend
L ...
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...
Lg...
Lg- - -
n
n
11
20
20
22
22
34
34
34
40
40
41
41
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
Lg...
Lg...
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
22
22
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
41
41
66-7
66-7
66-7
66-7
66-7
74
66
78
June '65
Aug. '631
June '67
78
76
75
May '67
Aug. '67
Dec. '67
68
68
68
70
70
69
78
76
74
78
77
65
78
May
Aug.
June
Dec.
Aug.
June
Nov.
72
71
68
71
68
68
71
69
69
72
72
68
75
65
75
76
73
72
68
68
68
68
70
73
'67
'67
'65
'67
'67
'64
'67
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
21.
*31.
37.
20.
26.
32.
25.
*71.
65.
Change in business inventories
Change, mfg. and trade inventories
Purchased materials, higher inventories
Change, mtls. and supplies inventories
Buying policy, production materials
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
66-7
66-7
i = leading C = roughly coincident, Lg= lagging.
x
73
July '67
Nov. '66
June '631
Dec. '67
June '64
Jan. '68
Dec. '67
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
Appendix G in this issue.
79
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Timing
classification
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Charts
1
Tables
2
1
2
3
Appendixes
4
B
C
D
F
E
Page
Issue
75
76
77
72
73
71
72
73
72
75
75
73
Dec.
Apr.
Oct.
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
*23
*19.
19.
*16.
22
18
*17.
55.
58
68.
*62.
81.
Industrial materials prices. .
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (1941-43= 10)
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (1957-59 = 100)
Corporate profits after taxes
Ratio profits to income originating corporate
Profits per dollar of sales mfg
Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg
Wholesale price index, industrial commodities.
Wholesale price index, manufactured goods
Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfin. corporations
Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Consumer prices
L
13
L ... 13
6
6
Lg...
Lg. ..
U ...
32
14
14
14
14
20
20
23
23
24
6
6
6
6
7
7
8
8
8
36
36
48
36
36
36
36
40
40
42
42
43
L
15
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
40
40
40
40
40
42
42
42
42
L. . .
L ...
L
L .. .
L ...
C ...
c
66-7
66-7
68-9
66-7
66-7
66-7
68
68
70
70
70
70
68
68
68
70
69
69
73
July
July
Apr.
July
Feb.
Apr.
July
July
Feb.
'67
'64
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
98
85
33
*113
112
110
14
39.
93
114
116
115
117.
66
*72.
*67.
118
Change money supply and time deposits
Change total U S money supply
Change mortgage debt
Change consumer installment debt
. . .
Change business loans ^
Total private borrowing2
Liabilities of business failures
Delinquency rate, instal. loans, 30 days and over
Free reserves
Treasury bill rate 2
Corporate bond yields 2
Treasury bond yields 2
Municipal bond yields 2
Consumer installment debt
.
Comm. and Indus, loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Mortgage yields, residential2
L . . . 15
L . . . 15
L
15
L . . . 15
L . . . 16
L
16
L ... 16
c . ..
C .. .
c
. . .
-
66-7
-
71
71
71
71
71
70
68
68
C .. .
C ...
Lg .
Lg. ..
Lg...
Lg. ..
21
21
21
21
21
23
23
23
23
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
...
...
...
. ..
.. .
24
24
24
25
25
25
25
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
72
72
71
69
69
69
69
U
U
U
U
U
.. .
...
...
...
u •.
U .. .
u •••
u ...
26
26
26
26
27
27
27
27
27
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
72
72
70
70
70
69
69
69
69
u ...
u ...
u...
u .. .
u...
u...
u...
u...
28
28
28
28
29
29
29
29
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
70
69
69
69
70
69
69
70
-
66-7
66-7
71
68
68
68
68
69
69
70
69
77
76
71
78
75
73
66
71
73
73
73
73
Sept. '67
Sept. '67
Apr. '67
Dec. '67
Apr. '67
Feb. '67
1
Nov. '63
Apr. '67
76
71
72
76
77
77
73
75
77
'68
July '64
Aug. '66
Jan. '68
Jan. '68
Dec. '67
Apr. '67
Jan. '68
Jan. '68
79
79
74
73
77
78
74
June '67
June ' 67
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
Apr. '67
73
76
78
78
78
76
78
77
66
76
July '67
'67
'67
'67
July '67
Dec. '67
Dec. '67
Oct. '64
Aug. '67
July
July
July
July
July
73
73
77
77
77
78
78
78
79
78
73
Jan.
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
88. Merchandise trade balance
86. Exports excluding military aid
861. Export orders, durable goods, except motor vehicles
862 Export orders nonelectric machinery
87 General imports
73
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95
84
83.
82.
101.
91
Fed balance nat'l income and prod account
Federal cash surplus or deficit
Federal cash receipts from public
Federal cash payments to public
National defense purchases current dollars
Defense Department obligations total
99 New orders defense products industries
92 Military contract awards in U S
73
73
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
U.S. SERIES UNDER CONSIDERATION
850
851
852.
853
854.
855.
856
857
Ratio output to capacity mfg
Ratio inventories to sales mfg. and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments durable goods
Ratio prod of bus equipment to consumer goods
Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income . .
Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to unemployed. . . .
Ratio avg earnings to consumer prices
Vacancy rate in total rental housing
T
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
Feb. '68
July '67
Feb. '68
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. L=leading, C=roughly coincident, Lg=lagging, U= unclassified ("other selected U.S. series/ "U.S. series under consideration" and "international comparisons"). L Appendix G in this issue. 2 A description of this series is contained in the July 1964 issue of BCD (appendix G).
80
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other grouping
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
Page
Issue
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
123.
122.
126.
125.
128.
121.
127.
Canada index of industrial production
United Kingdom, index of industrial production
France, index of industrial production
West Germany, index of industrial production
Japan, index of industrial production
OECD-Europe, index of industrial production
Italy, index of industrial production
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
76
77
78
77
68
77
78
July
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'64
'67
'67
133.
132.
136.
135.
138.
137.
Canada, index of consumer prices
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices
France, index of consumer prices
West Germany, index of consumer prices
Japan, index of consumer prices
Italy, index of consumer prices
U
U
U
U
U
U
31
31
31
31
31
31
47
47
47
47
47
47
79
79
80
79
80
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
T
143.
142.
146.
145.
148.
147.
Canada, index of stock prices
United Kingdom, index of stock prices
France, index of stock prices
West Germany, index of stock prices
Japan, index of stock prices
Italy, index of stock prices
U
.U
U
U
U
U
32
32
32
32
32
32
48
48
48
48
48
48
81
81
82
81
82
82
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
83
72
77
69
72
72
73
Oct.
Apr.
Aug.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
May
'67
'65
'67
'64
'65
'65
'65
79
73
78
73
70
70
68-9
Nov.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'67
'65
'67
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
69
69
69
69
69
69
67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl.
D6.
Dll.
D34.
Average workweek
New orders
Capital appropriations
Profits, mfg
-
51
51
51
51
-
51
D23. Industrial materials prices
D5. Initial claims
-
51
51
54
54
54
55
55
55
55
D41.
D47.
D58.
D54.
D35.
D36.
D48.
D61.
-
52
52
52
52
53
53
53
53
56
56
56
56
57
57
57
57
D19. Stock prices
...
Employees in nonagri. establishments
Industrial production
Wholesale prices, mfg
Retail sales
Net sales, mfrs
New orders
Freight carloadings
New plant and equipment expenditures
73
59
60
60
61
61
62
63
unclassified ("other selected U.S. series," "U.S. series under consideration," and "international comparisons").
81
The boundaries and numbers of congressional districts for the 90th Congress
(1967-1968) are shown on this colorful
reference map issued by the Bureau of the
Census. Printed on a single sheet (30 x 42
inches) and using a scale of 1:5,000,000,"
this map also shows the names and boundaries of States and counties. Of particular
interest are the boundaries for districts in
24 States that redistricted for the new
Congress.
This map is No. 11 in the Census Bureau
series, GE-50, United States Maps. All
GE-50 maps are available from the Superintendent of Documents at 500 each.
FOR THE W CONGRESS
OTHER TITLES IN GE-50 SERIES
No. 1—Population, Urban and Rural, in the United States: 1960; No. 2—Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas of the United States and Puerto Rico: 1962; No. 3—Congressional Districts for the 89th Congress (1965-1966); No. 4—Housing Built Before and After 1950 in
Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas of the United States: 1960; No. 5—Housing Owned
and Rented in Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas of the United States: 1960; No. 6—
Families With Incomes Under $3,000 in 1959, By Counties of the United States: 1960; No.
7—Older Americans in the United States, By Counties: 1960; No. 8—Per Capita Money
Income for 1959, By Counties of the United States; No. 9—Population with High School Education or More, By Counties of the United States: 1960; No. 10-—Youths of 16 and 17 years of
Age in School, By Counties of the United States: 1960; No. 12—Employment in Manufacturing, By Counties of the United States: 1960; No. 13—Employment in Professional, Technical,
and Kindred Occupations, By Counties of the United States: 1960.
To:
ORDER FORM
Superintendent of Documents
Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C. 20402
Enclosed is $
(check, money order, GPO coupons. OR charge to Deposit
Account No.
Please send copies of GE-50, United States Maps
(500 each) as indicated below:
No.
No.
No.
No.
1234-
No.
No. 6No. 7No. 8-
No. 9No. 10No. 11No. 12-
No.
For use of Supt. Docs
_ Enclosed
To be mailed
_ later
Refund
Coupon refund
Postage
13-
Name
AddressCity
-State-
-ZIP-
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
"M" indicates monthly series; U Q" indicates quarterly series.
Data apply to the whole period except for series designated
by "EOM" (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in
which a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus,
"(M, II)" indicates a monthly series classified in group II.
The general classification follows the approach of the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list"
of 25 indicators.
36 Leading Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing
(M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M,I). -Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,I).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census •
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M,III).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M,lll).~Depart
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings,floor space (M,III).--F.W Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
* 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F.W.
Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q,lll).-National Industrial Conference Board;
component industries are seasonally adjusted and added
to obtain seasonally adjusted total
13. Number of new business incorporations (M,III).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,VI). Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices
of manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally
adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages,
salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit
of output (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q,V).--Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission, seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,V).-Standard
and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories uf
materials and supplies (M,IV).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q,IV).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (_Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M.lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*47. Index of industrial production (M,II).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll).--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,II).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M,IV).-National Association
of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
*52. Personal income (M,II).-Department of Commerce,, Office
of Business Economics
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M, 11).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M,I). Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*54. Sales of retail stores (M,ll).«Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, and Bureau of the Census
32, Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
(M,IV.),.-Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M,VI).-Institute of Life
Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association, National
Association of Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and
Loan League, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials
(M,IV).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*38. Index of net business formation (M,lll).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days
and over (EOM,VI).-American Bankers Association: seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since
December 1964)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M,VI).--Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M,III).-F.W.
Dodge Corporation
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M,VI). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q,VI). -Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll). -Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (NI,V).~
Department of Labor,, Bureau of Labor Statistics, no seasonal adjustment
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrow
ings) (M,VI). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System; no seasonal adjustment
96.Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ,III).
National Industrial Conference Board, component industries
are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,VI).-Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M,VI).First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20~bond average (M,VI). The
Bond Buyer; no seasonal adjustment
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM,I). Department
of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments, (M,l).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales (M,II).-Department of Commerce,, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the
Census
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M,VI). -Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
25 Roughly Coincident Indicators
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M,I)
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics ; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
(M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,l).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M,l) Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the. Census
11 Lagging Indicators
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total
(Q,III).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
all manufacturing industries (EOM,IV).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted
net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous
month to obtain current figure
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M,I).-Department of Labor. Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (!Y1,I).
National Industrial Conference Board
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
POSTAGE AND FEES P A I D
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING O F F I C E
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Continued
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q,VI).~
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations (ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, National Income Division
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total
(EOM,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics and Bureau of the Census
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages(IHI,VI).--Federal
Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M,l).~Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
505. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M,lll).--Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
16 Other Selected U.S. Series
81. Index of consumer prices (M,V).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
82. Federal cash payments to the public (Q,Vlll).-Treasury
Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Q,VIII).-Treasury
Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Q,VIII).--Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the
President, Bureau of the Budget
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M,VII).~
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M,VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
99. New orders, defense products industries (M,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
101. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense
(Q,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
... United States, index of industrial production (!V!,ll).-See
series 47
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M,VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; no seasonal adjustment
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).--Ministry of
Labour (London); no seasonal adjustment
862. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M,V|I).~
McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).--Domini on Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
8 U.S. Series
Under Consideration
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. (Q).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and
McGraw-Hill Economics Department
851. Ratio, inventories (BCD series 71) to sales (BCD series
816), manufacturing and trade total (M).- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (BCD series 96) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (M).- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (index: 1957-59 = 100) (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon
components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Q).-Departmentof Commerce, Office of Business Economics
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (BCD series
301) to number of persons unemployed (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in
manufacturing to consumer prices (BCD series 81) (M).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M,VIII).~
Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M,VIII).~Depaftment
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M,VIII).-Department of Defense, Directorate
for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
95. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product
account (Q,VIII).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
136. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no
seasonal adjustment
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M)Hstituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); no seasonal adjustment
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (tVI).~Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
. . . United States, index of consumer prices (M,V).- See
Series 81
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).--The Financial
Times (London); no seasonal adjustment
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).-Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal, adjustment
146. France, index of stock prices (M).--lnstitut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no seasonal
adjustment
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M).~lstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); no seasonal adjustment
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
. . . United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M,V).-See series 19
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q).- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87)
(M,VII).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q,VII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).--Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
Diffusion Indexes
19 International Comparisons
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M).~
Organizafion for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--Central
Statistical Office (London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).-Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonally adjusted by
OECD
126. France, index of industrial production (M).~lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).»lstituto Centrale
di Statistica(Rome)
For Index-Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series
bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources.
See sources above for DI, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47,
D54, D58, and 061. Sources for other diffusion indexes are
as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City
Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment
@FedFRASER