Full text of Business Conditions Digest : December 1973
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DECEMBER 1973
DATA THROUGH NOVEMBER
A UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE
PUBLICATION
\
U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
Social and Economic
Statistics Administration
BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and
review,
Morton Somer-Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of
basic data, (Telephone 301-763-5448)
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in
the list of series and sources at the back of this
report.
This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Frederick B. Dent, Secretary
Sidney L. Jones, Assistant Secretary
for Economic Affairs
Social and Economic Statistics Administration
Edward D. Failor, Administrator
Edgar R. Fiedler, Chairman
Department of the Treasury
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers,
Executive Office of the President
George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single me&sure
of aggregate economic
output GNP is defined
as the total market
value of th® final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER '$ list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have a/so proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
FeliksTamm, Editor
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, Including supplements, Is $33 a year ($8.25 additional
for foreign mailing). Single Issues are $3.25. Airmail delivery Is available at
an additional charge. For Information about domestic or foreign airmail
delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting tho emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the
Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D,C. 20402.
New Features and Changes for This Issue
BCIt
METHOD pF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
i
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. 'International Comparisons . . . . a
How to Re^d Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary cj>f Recent Data and Current Changes
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
DECEMBER 1973
Data Through November
Series ESI No. 73-12
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
PART I. CHARTS
m
A2
A3
"A?
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B3
B4
B5
B6
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
43
46
IOTHER KEY INDICATORS
D3
T5T1
D5
D6
[Foreign Trade
48
[Balance of Payments and Major Components ... 49
| Federal Government Activities
54
Price Movements
56
| Wages and Productivity
58
I Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . . 60
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
20
23
25
28
30
33
Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
B8
Aggregate Series
biffusion Indexes
37
39
Actual and Potential Gross National Product . . . 61
Analytical Ratios
62
Diffusion Indexes
63
Rates of Change
65
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
F1 | Consumer Prices
F2 j| Industrial Production
F3
Stock Prices
The Secretary of Commerce has determined that tho publication of this periodical is necessary in the
transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this
periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through
September 1, 1975.
66
67
68
PART II. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
O
Gross National Product
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
(ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
69
National and Personal Income
69
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
70
70
Foreign Trade
71
Government Purchases of Goods and Services ..
71
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
71
71
72
Real Gross National Product
72
Shares of GNP and National Income
73
C1 I
C2 I
84
85
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
86
87
89
90
92
94
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
74
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade .. 76
B3
B4
B5
B6
Fixed Capital Investment
77
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
78
79
81
Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
Composite Indexes
95
96
97
99
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
83
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
F1 I
F2 I
F3
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
„.
103
103
104
PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See November 1973 issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide)
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 (See September 1973 issue)
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See November 1973issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
105
108
109
117
118
121
Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20233
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
Changes in this issue are as follows:
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composft/'on,
comparab/f/ty, coverage,
seasonal acf/ustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
1. A new appendix is introduced in this issue:
Experimental Eata and Analyses.
Appendix G—
This appendix presents a breakdown of
l
the composite index of 12 leading indicators (series 810; into two sub-
'
!
indexes: one based on the five components measured in nonmonetary
f
units and the other based on the seven components measured in, or
related to, current-dollar units.
2. Appendix C contains historical data for series 19 j 23, 93, 132,
i
133, 135-138, 142, 143, 145-148, 625, 748, 749, 850, 85V, D19, and D23.
Historical data for all BCD series have been shown in appendix C
during 1973. The "Alphabetical Index — Series Finding Guide"
(pp. 118-120) indicates, for each series, the issue in which the
historical data last appeared.
The January issue of BUSINESS CONDITIOMS"DIGEST is scheduled for
release
on January 31.
iii
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
6 SESA PROJECTS
for economic
analysis
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST A monthly report for analyzing
economic fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together approximately 600 economic time series in a form convenient for analysts whether their approach to the study of current business conditions and prospects is the national income model, the leading indicators, anticipations
and intentions, or a combination of these. Other types of data such gs foreign trade,
Federal Government activities, and international series are included to facilitate a
more complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts and tables. Appendixes provide historical data, series
descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability, A computer
tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.
DEFENSE INDICATORS A monthly report for analyzing the current and prospective impact of defense activity on the nationa 1 economy.
This report brings together the principal time series on defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national economy. These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders, shipments, inventories, expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 60 time series included are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense orderproduction-delivery process. Charts and analytical tables facilitate interpretation.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH A report for the study of eeonomic trends over a long span of years, 1860-1970.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive,
long-range view of the U.S. economy. It is a basic research document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together under one cover, in
meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical basis for a study of longterm economic trends. A computer tape file of the time series included in the report
is available for purchase.
COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS The
source statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by SESA in its analysis
of time series are available on a single computer tape,
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS.—Two variants of the Census computer program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations. They are particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The X-ll variant is used for adjusting monthly data and
the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.
DIFFUSION INDEX PROGRAM.—A computer program for computing diffusion indexes,
cumulated diffusion indexes, and summary measures of the properties of each index.
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
ing current economic developments.
A monthly report for analyz-
This report provides a useful combination of current data for more than 2,500
statistical series and significant articles analyzing economic developments. These
data and analyses include such areas as the national income and product accounts,
the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment expenditures, regional
personal income, and the input-output accounts.
BUSINESS STATISTICS A biennial reference volume containing
statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.
This report provides historical data back to 1947 for nearly 2,500 time series. The
series are ciccompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of
compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and
addresses of organizations which provide the basic data for the series.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1952 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about: the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ( B E A ) summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Persona/ consumpt/on expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in Section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Persona/ income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or (aggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses tha same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 80 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full fist and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the coincident index. This facilitates
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
I. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(27 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(13 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (4 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(14 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(20 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series;
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(5 series)
Unit labor costs
(3 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates
(3 series)
comparisons among the leading, coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they exoect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these,series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but wl)ich
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
|
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports |and
their balance, export orders, and theibalance of payments. Many of the corhponents of the balance-of-payment:s accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a mahner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imborts
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United Spates.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital tra,hsactions and for capital transactions df the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve Assets.
i
The Federal Government activities 'series
include Federal receipts and expenditures,
and their balance, and selected defense
activities. The receipts and expenditures
data are from the national incorrje and
product accounts. The defense series are
only a few of the many available.! For a
more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis publication.
Three other group;; of series are included
in this section. The price movements series consist of consumer and wholesale
price indexes and their major components.
The series on wages and productivity include measures of hourly earnings and
output per man-hour and also rates of
change for most of these rneasu(es. The
final group of series measures the civilian
labor force and its major componjents, including unemployment rates for [selected
segments of the labor force.
!
SECTION E[
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive [resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per iman-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
LftJ INTERNATIONAL
j COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) as
designated by NBER.
Basic Data
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data,
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic
number indicates latest
roontti for which data are plotted,
("6" - Juno)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are
plotted, ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme valuesf etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans,
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of thejr
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted 1%, 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" —
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method ot
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles,
or
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series am listed in
numerical order according to series numbers within each of the
Digest's six sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Unit
Series title
Percent change
Average
of
measure
1970
1971
1972
2dQ
3dQ
( 4th Q !
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
1972
1972
1972
1973
1973
1973
i
4th Q
to
IstQ
IstQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1973
1973
1973
8
'i
00
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
200.
205.
210.
215
217
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars .
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
do
1958=100
'
Ann. rate, dol. ...
do
977.1 1055.4 1155.2! 1142.4 1166.5 1199^2 1242.5 1272.0 1304.5
745.4 790.7
785.6
796.7
629.3 834.3
841.3
812^3
722.5
141.6
152.5
14716 149.8
135.2
146.,'L
145.4 146.4
155.1
5,097 5/530 5/476
4/768
6/194
5/580 5/724 5,920 6,051
3/599
3/526
3,78'5
3,765
3/811 3/8?7 3,951 3/969 3/994
3.6
2.1
1.5
3.4
1.9
2.4
0.6
1.8
2.2
0.5
2.6
0.8
1.7
2,4
0.6
200
205
210
215
217
3.7
2,1
2.8
1.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
0.1
2.8
2.8
2.5
0.8
220
222
224
225
A2. National and Personal Income
220
222
224
225
226.
National income, current dollars
Personal income, current dollars .
Disposable personal income current dollars
Disposable personal income 1958 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
227 Per capita disposable pers income 1958 dol
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
939.2
2/610
3/603
2/680
617.6
477,5
577.9
9;28.3
926.1
785.4
571.6
943 „ 7
800 ,9
579.3
978.6 1015.0 1038.2 1067.4
976.1 996.6 1019.0 1047.1
891.1
851.5
828.7
869.7
595.1 603.9 604.8 609.5
3/816
2/767
3,765
2,740
3/831
2/771
3,9^5
2/8^41
667.2
496.3
726,5
526.8
91.3
63.3
28.0
103.6
117,4
719.2
1523.4
115.1
68.2
35,4
78.0
39.4
77.0
38.1
734.1
531.0
120.2
7fi.4
263.8
262.6
278.7
284.9
299.9
309.2
297.9
306.2
302.3
136.3
100,6
153.2
104.4
173.3
113.2
41.7
76.5
54.0
534. 8
Ann. rate, dol. ...
3/376
do
941.8
859.4
863.5
746,0
554.9
800.5
808.3
do
do
... . do
691.7
797, 0
94902
4,057
2,878
4,137
2,877
4,231
2/894
2*6
1.3
2.0
0.0
2.3
0.6
226
227
752.6
54P.5
779,4
552.7
795.6
553.3
132,2
132.8
87.1
45.1
88.2
44,6
88.3
44,5
2.6
0.9
0.0
0.1
322.2
325.0
330.3
332.6
341,6
341,6
3.6
2.3
7.6
6.6
9.5
3.7
1.9
2.1
0.1
0.5
1.3
311.6
122.9
8,1.7
41 ,-2
310.7
319.0
816.0
558.1
132,8
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
174.7
116.3
181.5
118.3
1^9.4
li4.3
194.5
130.9
198.2
134.1
202.0
41.5
74.9
52,8
41.3
77.0
54.5
43.0
45.3
85.5
59.0
47.2
86.9
59.6
49.5
86.6
59,2
i
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230
231
232
233.
234.
236.
237.
Total, current dollars
Total, 1958 dollars
Durable goods, current dollars . .
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars
Automobiles, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, current dollars
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
do
do
do
41.8
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
245.
-1.1
-0.2
2.5
2.3
3,4
2.7
1.9
2.4
4,2
1.6
1.0
1.9
2.9
4.9
2.0
i
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
Gross private domestic investment, total
Fixed investment, total nonresidential
do
do... .
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures
do ...
Fixed investment, producers' durable equip. . . .
do
Fixed investment, residential structures
Change in business inventories, total2
do
36.1
64.4
31.2
4.5
37.9
66.5
42.7
6.1
6.0
5.5
Si, 2
156.9
8.2
8.7
4.6
138.0
2.7
5,3
5,3
5.3
3.7
4.5
4,7
-3.6
2,8
7.6
104.5
12.5
-0.1
0.2
240
241
242
243
244
245
4.8
7.5
2.8
250
252
253
1.3
260
262
264
266
-0.7
A5. Foreign Trade
250 Net exports of goods and services2
252. Exports
253 Imports
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
3.6
62.9
59.3
0.8
66.3
65.5
0.0
73,5
78.1
69.9
75.6
,"79.7
74.0
77.7
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260
262
264
266
Total .
Federal
National defense
State and local
89.7
89.7
97.2
94.4
560.7
268.6
102.7
' 72.4
105.5
74.3
3.5
97.0
7.8
275.3
279.0
107.3
106.8
74.2
74.2
3.0
2.7
2.6
3.2
2.8
8.4
5.2
!•
I
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
219.5
234.3
255.0
254.2
96.2
74,6
98.1
71.6
104.4
106.7
74.4
76.6
254.7
1,02.3
71.9
123.3
136.2
150.5
147.5
.fi52.4
1158.0
163.0
168.0
172.2
182. 5
191.1
2.0
299,9
4.1
;;i4.i
211.4
3.2
319,6
2.3
216.8
5.8
323.1
2.9
(222.8
242.4
246.2
7.3
357.3
8.0
371.4
-2.2
238,1
4,4
346.9
0.3
-2.8
-3.4
731.2
757.4
774.9
794.0
77.1
24.9
98.6
46.6
80.6
24.7
81,5
24.6
65,0
25.3
104.3
107,9
112.0
47.9
49.4
51.1
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270.
271.
274
275
83.2
2.5
1.7
-0,5
3.1
0.0
2.5
1.8
2.9
3.0
1.6
0.7
3.9
-0.1
i
Final sales, durable goods
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
Change in business inventories, dur. goods2 . . .
do
do .
Final sales, nondurable goods
do
Change in bus. inventories, nondur. goods2
1.2
284.1
3.3
4.9
32 1.2,
1.1
I
10.4
,332.5
6,9
-6,0
4.3
2.9
-3.1
-0.6
270
271
274
275
|:
A8. National Income Components
280.
282
284
286.
288
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj. .
Net interest
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
do
603.9
644.1
707.1
699.6
713.1
66.9
23.9
69.2
68.7
24.5
80.1
42.0
74.2
24.1
91.1
45.2
73.2
22.6
88.0
44.8
74.1
24.9
91,5
45.7
166.1
36i5
!
5.6
2.8
3.5
3.1
2.5
4.3
2.6
3,8
3.4
4,5
2.2
2.0
4.0
0.2
3.6
4,5
-0.8
2.3
1.1
-0.4
280
282
284
286
288
290
292
A9. Saving
290 Gross saving, total
292 Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2
A10.
143.1
153.8
do
56,2
60.2
171,4
49 ( ( 7
do
do
do
87.3
17.6
93.8
22 ,,4
102,4
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
9.8
-10.1
-18.1
d_
718.5
3.9
740.1
5.3
do
do
do
77.2
22.2
28.5
76.1
29,0
36.4
45.9
182.2
172.3
45 . 8 1 54.4
190.4
50.0
194.6
51.0
202.3
51.1
-8,1
-7.5
22.5
26.6
24.6
23.1
26.4
102.3
2.0
105.1
106.9
8,9
109.0
110.6
-3.8
11,6
14.3
781.3
4.3
790.0
806.0
826.0
831,0
838.3
82.5
34.2
37.7
83.4
87.5
35.3
41,4
91.2
35.6
46.4
91.5
35.3
45.5
93.2
34.5
43,6
12.1
-0,7
20.8
103.6
-2.8
-3.9
786.1
4.6
1,7
12.7
-6.1
2.0
2.7
14.3
1.5
2.7
294
296
•298
Real GNP (1958 dollars)
273. Final sales, 1958 dollars
247.
248.
249
263.
Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars .
Fixed investment, residential struc., 1958 dol. .
Gross auto product, 1958 dollars .
Federal Government purchases of goods
and services 1958 dollars
267. State and local government purchases of
goods and services 1958 dollars
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
83,7
3q..6
39.0
6.6
34. f
41.9
2.5
-3.0
4.2
0,8
0.6
0.1
0.3
-0.8
-1.9
0.9
-0.4
1.9
-2.3
-4.2
273
246
247
248
249
t
do
64.3
60,9
60.8
62.9
58.^
58.6
58.2
58,2
57.2
do
75.0
77.5
82.2
81.1.
83. ,6
i
85.0
86.2
87.0
87.8
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
35.9
45.6
34.3
35.0
32.6
25.7
17.7
21.7
23.8
1.4
0,0
-1.7
263
0.9
0.9
267
4.0
2.1
207
E1. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNPgap (potential lessactual), 1958 d o l . 2 . . . .
-8.0
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Continued
Basic data 1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Percent change
Sept.
to
Oct.
1973
Average
1stQ
1973
2dQ
1973
3dQ
1973
Sept.
T973
Oct.
1973
Nov.
1973
Oct.
to
Nov.
1973
|
IstQ
to
2dQ
1973
2dQ
te
3dQ
1973
1
I
1971
1972
125.3
123.5
114.9
128.9
142.7
136.6
125.8
134.8
158.7
149.3
135.8
148.9
162.1
153.1
137.2
158.8
165.7
157.2
139.3
170.3
164.8
158.2
139.7
173.0
166.5
160.9
141.5
175.2
167.1
161.5
141.5
175.2
1.0
1.7
1.3
1.3
0.4
0.4
0,0
0,0
2.1
2,5
1.0
6.6
2.2
2.7
1.5
7,2
610
820
825
830
93.7
111.1
102.3
99.7
105.7
99.3
118.3
106,1
107.2
114.3
102.6
121.8
116.6
116.8
127.0
102.7
121.4
121.1
118.7
123.7
101,8
120.1
124.8
119.7
118.6
102.3
118.8
125,0
119.1
110.0
102.3
118.2
127.0
120.2
109,0
NA
117.5
126.9
120,7
NA
0,0
-0,5
1,6
0,9
-0,9
NA
-0.6
-0,1
0.4
NA
0.1
-0,3
3.9
1.6
-2.6
-0.9
-1.1
3.1
0.8
-4.1
813
814
815
816
817
39.9
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.8
40.6
40.6
-0.5
0.0
0,0
0.0
1
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
810.
8?0
826
830
12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj. 3
6 eoinsidEnt indicators
6 coincident indicators deflated
6 lagging indicators
.
1967=100
do
do
do
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
813 Marfliml employment adjustments
814 Capital investment commitments
81 6 Inventory investment and purchasing
816 Profitability
81? Sensitive financial flows
do
do
do
do
do
...
...
81. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employ rnsnt Adjustments:
*1 , Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours,
produetiori workers manufacturing2
2 Accession rate manufoetunng2
*6. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted4)
3. Layoff rote, manufacturing (inverted 4 ) 3
do . . . .
Per 100 employ. . .
2.9
3.9
3.5
4.4
3.8
4.9
3.9
4.6
3.8
4.7
3.8
4,7
3.7
5.0
3,7
NA
-0.1
0,3
0.0
NA
0.1
-0,1
-0.1
-0.1
21
2
Thousands
Per 100 employ. ..
291
1.6
257
1.1
227
0.9
236
0.8
234
0,9
234
0.7
239
0.6
251
NA
-2.1
-0.1
-5,0
NA
-4,0
0.1
0.8
-0.1
5
3
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies:
00. Number of job vacancies, manufacturing
46 Hslp -wanted advertising
Thousands
1967=100
88
82
127
101
174
121
183
122
192
126
194
120
189
122
NA
NA
-2.6
1,7
NA
NA
5.2
0.8
4.9
3.3
50
46
137.72 142.46 145.94 147.47 147.95 148.42 148.64 149.07
70/645 72/764 74/627 75/317 75/734 75/961 76/275 76/476
75/732 78,230 79/722 80/875 81/282 81/757 82/224 82/052
0.1
0.4
0,6
0.3
0.3
-0,2
1.0
0,9
1,4
0.3
0.6
o.b
48
41
42
43
Hours
40.7
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagrieultural establishments. .
Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
*41. Employees onranagrieulturalpayrolls . . . . . . Thousands
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
do
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43 Un am ploy men t rote total (inverted4)2 . .
45. Average weakly insured unemployment
rate (inverted4)2
. ...
4Q. Untimploymont rate, married males
(Inverted4)1
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Uriompiley merit:
*44, Unemployment rate, IS weeks and
over (inverted 4 ) 2
Percent
. .
do
.
5.9
5.6
5.0
4.9
4.6
4.8
4.5
4.7
0,3
-0,2
0.1
0.1
1.1
3.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.3
0.0
0,4
0.0
0.1
45
2.?,
0.0
-0,1
0,1
0.2
40
1.0
0.0
-0.1
O.I
0.0
44
a. 4
0.2
0.2
0.6
1.5
2.6
0,8
1.4
200
205
47
996.6 1019.0 1047.1 1058.5 1067.5 1076.2
253,3 254.8 256.8
237.6 2 4 4 . 5 251.0
0.9
0.6
0.8
0.8
a«9
2,7
2,6
52
b3
146.26 146.23 150.19
NA
1299.8
42/555 4 2 / 5 2 5 43/081 43/127
32/335 32/022 32/270 32/017
2.7
NA
1,3
0,8
0.1
-0.8
2.3
2,4
0,1
-2.3
2.9
2,5
2*9
0.3
56
57
54
59
...do
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.1
do
1.4
1.3
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Product: en:
*?QQ 6NP in current dollars
*2Q§ QNPin 1938 dolors
*47, Industrial production
Ann.rate.bll.dol. .
do
1967^100
1055.4 1155.2 1242.5 1272.0 1304.5
745.4 790.7 829.3 834.3 841.3
123.1 124.9
126.7
106.8 115.2
126,8
127.0
127.2
Comprehensive Income:
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
.do....
863.5
202.7
939.2
222.1
Bil.dol
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
Mil dol
do . .
112.24
1049.4
34/070
28/977
124.66
1149.1
37/365
30/808
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
13 New business incorporations
1987=100
Number
117,9 120.3 118.9 117.1 115,6
111.0
24/020 26/4S6 26/576 28/325 27/268 26/277
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
8 Construction contracts total value
*10. Contracts find orders far plant, equipment . . .
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing . . .
24 New orders cap goods Indus nondofense
9, Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings.
28. Now private housing units started, total
*29. New building permits, private housing
Bil.dol
1967=100
Bil.dol
•
do
do
Mil. sq. feet
floor space
Ann. rate, thous . .
1967^100
29.76
145
6.84
5.76
7,33
34.92
165
10.56
7.22
8.99
40.00
166
11,93
9.64
10.32
42.27
178
12.71
10.82
10.99
42.55
188
13.57
11.08
11.23
42.26
182
13.42
44.04
191
14.78
44.16
194
14.42
4.2
4.9
10,1
0,3
1.6
-2.4
11.27
11.60
11.88
2.9
61.19
2/052
167.4
72.10
2/357
192.2
85.55
2/404
188.6
61.53
2/221
166.8
93.78
2/030
146.0
85.42
1/804
137.5
93.47
1/636
113.4
88.57
1/698
109.4
9.4
-9,3
-17,5
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments;
98. Unfilled orders, duratilo goods industries5 . . . .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5
Bil.dol., EOP . . . .
do
70.15
18.93
81.99
23.24
88.03
25.12
97.65 104.72 104.72 107.18 109,04
29.75 33.27
2.3
S3 Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction . .
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*5B. Manufacturing and trade sales
67 Final sales
*b'4 Sales of retail stores . . . .
59 Sales of retail stows deflated
138.93
1237.8
41/309
33/073
142.10
1267.5
41/366
32/251
2,2
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
-i.a
-0,9
-1.5
-3.7
12
13
2,4
5.7
-5.3
6.5
12.2
6.5
0.7
5,6
6,6
2,4
2.2
6
8
10
11
24
-5.2
3.8
-3.5
-4.7
-7.6
-11.7
15.0
-8.6
-12.5
9
23
29
1,7
10.9
16.4
7.2
11.6
96
97
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Continued
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
i
Percent change
lj
i
Average
1971
1972
81.22
88.38
1st Q
;?dd
3dQ
Sept
1973
1973
1973
197?
Nov.
1973
Oct.
1973
\
Sept.
to
Oct.
1stQ
to
Oct.
1973
Nov.
1973
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1973
1973
i
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip.
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
..-•y.do
96.19
'?7.76 100c,90
106.50 121.46 134.77 143.42 146,23 146;. 5 4 146.70
NA
0.1
NA
6,7
NA
1.6
3.2
61
6.4
2.0
69
0.2
245
31
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus.2
*31, Change, mfg. and trade inven., book value2 . .
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories2
20. Change In mfrs.' inventories of materials,
supplies, book value2 .
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2©
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries2© . ,
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus.3 . . .
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71 . Mfg, and trade inventories, book value3
65. Mfrs.' inven. of finished goods, book value5 . .
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
do
Percent
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
Percent
do
Bil.dol
Bil.dol., EOP . . . .
do
6.1
8.6
6,0
10.5
4.6
2.1.5
4.5
22.9
4.7
50
55
61
58
64
0.7
1.0
4.8
5.5
7.0
54
57
66
78
82
46
-0.20
63
0.98
-0.1
|8.3
19.8
[
83
2,01
90
3.20
N^
1.4
-3,1
66
71
68
5
-3
-3
6
7.0
7.9
NA
0.9
NA
0,7
1.5
20
87
84
4
-3
12
4
26
0
1
-0.61
7
-1
-0,84
32
25
2.4
0.5
71
65
"i "
! ^o
89
2.10
I
2,36
25.0
90
2.47
i
183.62 194.15 199.52 205.25 210.19 210.19 212.27
34.81 35.80
36.. 06
36,70 36,90 3,6.90 36.98
91
1.86
0.37
NA
NA
1.0
0,2
NA
NA
186.3
188.1
192,4
i
i
98.29 109.20 115.00 107.41 105.08 1^)5.61 109.84 102.03
1.0
2,3
1.19
2.9
1.8
37
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices @
1967=100
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks ©
1941-43=10
Prof its and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes, current dollars .
18. Corporate profits, after taxes, 1958 dollars . . .
22. Ratio, profits to income originating in
corporate business2
15. Profits {after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 . , .
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars
Ann.rate, biLdo). .
do
Percent
Cents
1967=100
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
107.1
47.6
35.1
8.9
4.1
97.3
82.9
60.4
123.0
55.4
39.6
147.4
66.9
47.0
9.5
4.3
99.2
95.2
67.4
163.7
71.6
49.2
184.7
4.0
-7.1
71.5
48.5
10,5
11.1
10.7
4.7
103.4
109.2
4.8
105.4
114.7
4.7
107.1
115.2
76.1
78,3
77.8
106.8
106.6
109.0
-0.2
2,3
i
I
i
11.1
12.8
23
-6.6
-2.2
19
7.0
4.7
-0.1
-1.4
16
18
0.6
0.1
1.9
5.0
2.9
-0.4
-0.1
22
15
17
34
35
1.6
0.4
-0.6
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities © . . 1967=100
55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A2 . . Percent
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods ©
1967=100
114.0
0.3
113.8
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
63. Unit labor cost, total private economy
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
122.6
126.2
128.5
130.9
133.2
0.825
117.0
0.847
118.9
0.86;>
119.5
0.874
121.7
0.883
123.3 1124.3
6.46
7.97
1.72
10.20
0,31
-2.27
4,56
10.89
6.83
6.33
8.48
-9.89
85
10.88
10.33
5.69
9.46
5.11
3.92
10.43
11.63
6.51
1.20
3,77
-4.35
102
3.19
9.12
0.89
36.73
-1.46
20.40
10.01
NA
-0.65
NA
5.93
41.47
-4,74
-7.32
0,76
8.16
-4.95
-1,39
•20.50
-3.93
0,93
0.98
-7.1
103
33
112
113
110
do..
Dollars
1967=100
117.9
0.3
117.9
J.21.3
0.8
!i23.6
125.7
1.2
128.8
127,5
0.4
132.1
128.1
0.7
132.5
129.6
1.1
133.0
125.2
133.5
3.2
135.8
125.4
1.2
0,4
0,4
0.7
3,0
2,1
2,1
0.2
2.6
55
55
58
1.9
1.8
63
1.4
1.8
1.0
1.3
68
62
3.6
0,4
4.2
1.4
-0.8
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
85. Change in money supply (Ml )2
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at commercial banks (M2) 2
1 03. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
banks and nonbank institutions (M3)2
33. Change in mortgage debt 2
112. Change in business loans2
*1 13. Change in consumer installment debt2
110. Total private borrowing
Ann.rate.percent . .
do
12.71
12.25
8.55
do
9.31
4.36
36.19
48.62 46.93 55.09 53.70
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
1.65
6.70
38.81
do
18,31
19.24
8,98
15,91
23.96 20.03 21.01
do
do
121.20 148,95 189.05 178.70 165.97
5.86
16.31
Mil. dol
159.74 166.69
1,92
Percent, EOP . . . . 1.68
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT 1 NO 1CA TORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 2 ©
1,98.^5 155.83 195.27 189,47 185.66 218.67
2.02
2.01
2.13
2, 00 i
I,
t
Mil. dol
-1/2558 -1/618 -1,598
Percent
do
do
do
do
-207
-128
4.66
4.34
7.85
5.74
5.48
4,43
4.07
7.59
5.64
5.26
f
6.54
5.54
7.68
6.10
5.16
7.82
6.61
7.71
6.23
5.16
10.56
8.39
8.l7r
6.60
5.33
0.81
NA
-5.5
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted4) © . .
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv. 4 ) 2 5 .
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate 2 ©..
1 14. Treasury bill rate 2 ©
1 1 6. Corporate bond yields2©
115. Treasury bond yields 2 ©.
117. Municipal bond yieids2(u)
4.09
NA
2.0
-0.13
•1/477 -1/141 -1/253
-336
10.01
10.03
7.16
7.96
6.25
5.05
7.87
7.94
6.30
-0.77
-1.32
-0.14
-0.17
-n.nc*
10,78
8.48
8.10
6.42
5.10
«i- 1ft
-17,8
• *.
112
0,02
0.71
-0.02
0.05
o .1 ^
21.5
0,01
360
1.26
0.97
0.03
0.13
n.nn
-25,3
0.01
-20
14
39
93
119
114
116
115
n i7 i11
2.74
1.78
0.46
0.37
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
1972
2dQ
3dQ
Sept.
1973
1973
1973
Nov.
1973
Oct.
1973
Oct.
Oct.
1973
Nov.
1973
to
IstQ
to
?.(.Q
2dQ
to
3dQ
1073
1973
i
1971
1stQ
1973
Sept.
to
Series number
1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Continued
B, CYCLICAL INDICATORS- Con.
86, Money and Credit-Con,
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Offfot:
60. Consumer installment dobts
*72, Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .
Interest Rates:
109. Average prirm rate charged by banks2 ®
*S7, Bank rates on short-term business loans2 ® . .
118, Mortgage yields, residential2 ®
Bil.dol.,EOP . . . .
Bil.dol
Percent
do
do
NA
108.53 124.44 130.43 135.44 140.69 140.69 142.39
97,89 104.98 109.86 111.00 110.88 110.83
84.30 87.25
5.70
6.32
7.70
5.25
5.82
7.53
6.U
6.52
7.58
7.03
7.35
7.80
9.13
9.24
7
5/623
2/159
439
5/615
321
6,107
2/395
455
5,786
NA
-0.1
NA
0.0
1.2
9.86
9.94
9,75
0.08
-0.19
9,18
8.97
8.86
-0.21
-0.11
873
6,448
2/104
483
5/575
527
6/432
2/633
490
5/904
:s.e
7.2
0.92
0.83
0.22
3.9
4.6
2.10
1.89
NA
66
72
109
67
118
[). OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1. Foreign Trade
500.
502.
506.
608,
512
More'i and iso t?ede balance3
Exports oxcluding military aid . . .
Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles .
Kxport orders, nonelectrical machinery
Gensral imports
Mil dol
do
do
1957-59=100 . . . .
Mil dol
-160
-529
-278
3/634
1/454
246
3/794
4,103
1*716
352
n,630
5,141
2/266
402
5/418
.
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-346
-0,2
25,1
1.4
5.9
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
285
9.4
»5,6
314
B. 6
10,9
9,2
3,6
3.6
3.0
5^4
1/474
1/441
500
502
506
508
512
DZ U.S. Balance of Payments
Mil dol
51§. Bal on goads, services, and remittances2
519. Balance on curr. sect, and long-term capital3 .
521 Nst liquidity bil'inee3
522, Official reserve transactions balance2
do
do
do
do
do
674 2,148
807 -4,610
150
-1/544
285 1/726
-247
-2/088
-1/217
-367
-592
-609
2/539
-944
-2/389 -2,459
1/418
- 5 / 4 9 2 -3/469 -6/657 -1/588
335 2/108
-7/439 -2,584 10/499
5:i2
-187
-698
225
335
5,069
10,834
-8bO
3/148
3/006
1/773
250
S15
517
519
521
522
03. Federal Government Activities
601. Foctoral rwaipts, NIA
284,
618.
821.
648,
82§
Notional defense purchases
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense! Department obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products . ,
Milltnry contract awards in U S
Ann, rate, btl.dol. .
do
do
do
Mil. dol
do
Bil.dol
Mil dol
-22.2
198.9
221.0
iQRft~inn
1967^100
-15.9
2i>8.7
2^4.6
-5.0
253.6
258.6
0.0
262.4
262.4
5.0
4.0
269.5
265.6
3,;3
-(),!
71.6
74.4
74.3
74.2
74.2
6/788
1/769
7,073
1/740
7/376
1/865
6/802
1/541
7,039
1/394
5/830
820
7/708
1/951
1.64
1.72
1.79
1.99
1.54
1.56
1.89
2/775
3,002
2/963
2,856
2/682
3/203
NA
NA
NA
NA
136.6
121.3
0.3
113.9
141.0
125.3
0.3
119.1
145.3
128.7
0.7
127.0
148,1
131,5
0.6
133.6
150.8
134.4
0.8
139.3
135.5
0.3
140,2
136.6
0.8
139.5
137.6
0.8
141.8
0.8
O.b
0.7
0.0
1.6
do
129,7
137.9
142.7
145.0
147.8
149.0
149.7
150.1
do
106.9
110.1
110.8
110.3
UO.l
110,0
109.6
109.0
-0,4
-0.5
94.30
93.78
-0.9
-0.6
NA
NA
1.79
32,2
137.9
21.2
NA
NA
-5.3
-7.U
-17. H
4.0
2,7
1.2
0.0
3,5
-9.5
1 1 . a -22.6
0.9
-3.6
600
601
602
264
616
621
648
625
D4. Price Movements
21 1. Fixed wtd, price .ndsx, gross priv. product . . .
701 Consumer prices, all items© . . . .
78 1e. Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 . , .
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities <§),
Percent
1967=100
1.9
-0,5
2.2
-0.1
5.2
1.8
0.2
4.3
211
781
781
7bO
1.9
740
2.2
Dt"). Wages and Productivity
740, Average hourly earnings, production workers
in private nonfarm economy
741. Real average hourly earnings, production
workors in private nonfarm economy
859, Roal spendable avc;. weekly earnings,
nonafjri. prod, or nonsupv. workers
745. Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm . ,
19B7dol
1QR7~1flfl
do
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy .
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . .
r\f\
do
92.51
i31.6
108.5
108.7
107.6
96.31
140.7
112.3
112.8
112.1
95.85
147.5
114.6
115.9
115.6
95.62
149.6
113.8
115.8
115,4
95.13
152.6
113,6
116.1
115.8
95.11
0.5
0.3
1,6
-0.5
-0.2
741
-0.2
-0,5
0,3
0.3
859
745
746
770
858
1.1
1.2
0.9
0.4
0.6
2.9
841
842
843
0.5
0.7
0.0
0,0
8SO
851
6.1)
6,5
1.8
2,i>
852
853
0.0
-3.4
1.4
-0.7
-0.1
-0.2
2.0
-0,2
D6. Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components
841 , Total civilian labor force
842 Total civilian employment
843 Number of persons unemployed (inverted}4
Thousands
do
do
87/113 86,542 87/586 88,562 88/955 89/403 89/764 89,952
79/120 81,702 83/190 84,205 84/725 85/127 85,095 85,688
4 / 2 3 0 4 / 2 7 6 4,069 4,264
4 / 9 9 3 4,8^0 4,396 4,357
0.4
0,7
4,3
0.2
0.0
-4.8
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2 . . . 'Percent
851, Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries
do
803. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods . . 1987-100 . .
884. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal irtcomp
Ratio
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
do
persons unemployed
857, Vacancy rats in total rental housing2® . . . . . Percent
75.0
1.60
78.6
1.51
82.8
1.42
83.3
1.43
83.3
1.43
1.44
1.41
2.72
83.6
2.57
85.9
2.60
90.5
2,77
92. i
2.95
94.4
3.02
95.5
2.97
94.7
0.836
O.H92
0.081
0.062
0,059
0,059
0,057
0.487
5.4
0,6?L
5,6
0.816
5.7
0.834
5.8
0.885
5.8
NA
-2.1
NA
NA
-1.7
-0.8
NA
0,3
95.0
NA
6,7
NA
2.0
0,1
6.1
0.0
NOTE: Series e'e seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. 'Series included in the 19R6 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA ~ not available, a - anticipated.
EOP » end of period. S/A=»asonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titlos (including composition of composite indexes} and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.
^•For a few aeries, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figured are
those publiehed by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II,
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Index for the latest month exclude• aarles 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
4
Inverted series. Since this serlea tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
8
854
860
tib?
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart Al
(July)
P
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July)(Apr.)
P T
in current Jollar;, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
GNP in 1958 dollars, Q
(aim. rate, bil. dol.)
210. Imp licit price deflator, Q (index: 1958-100)
capita GNP in current dollar;;, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.)
capita GNP in 1958 dollars
(ann. rate, tlious. dol.)
1952 53
54
55
56
57
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
ltd*
DECEMBER 1973
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
*/2
73 1974
Section A
A2
[ Chart
Chi
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
220. national income, current dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. doL)
800-
100095090Q850800-
224. Disposable personal income.
225. Disposable personal
Per capita disposable personal
, 1958 dollars, Q (ami.
rate, ttoros. dot.)
1952
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data tor Jhejc series are shown on page 69.
10
DECEMBER
1973
HCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A3
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
900-1
personal consumption expenditures700-
230. Ifotal, current dollars J
500-
400 J
232. Durable goods, total, current dollarsTH
rable goo IsT total excluding automobiles,
current dollars, Q
234. Automobiles, curent dillars, Q
236. Nondurable goods, total, current dollars, Q
237. Services,; total, current dollars, 8
195;> 53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
6§
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
ltd)
DECEMBER 1973
11
Section
A
_^_
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
[ ChartJ\4J GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Fib.)
P T
BBHI rate, billion dollars (amm
Gross private domestic
241, Honresidential fixed investment, total, 0
242. Honresidential structures, Q
243, Producers' durable equipment, Q
244. Residential structures, Q
245. Change in business inventories, Q
1952
B4
5i
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1914
Current data for fihese series arc shown on page 70,
12
DECEMBER
1973
IICII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A5
FOREIGN TRADE
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(N0v.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
250. Net exports of goods and services, Q
252. Exnorts o! eotids and services. Q
253. Imports of pods and services, Q
2, 53
54
§5
56
57
58
59
SO
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
DECEMBER 1973
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
[Chart A6^] GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
duly)
P
(July) (Apr.)
F T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (feb.)
P T
Annual rate, billion dollars (ctmifi
Governfflest purchases of goods a«a services
40 =
200-
120-
266. State and local governments, Q
100-
60-
46-
1052 S3
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
(12
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 19?4
Current dctto for theta series are shown on page 71.
14
DECEMBER
1973
ItCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A7
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(July)
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
270. Final sales, table goods, Q
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods, Q
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, Q
1952
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
DECEMBER
BCII
1973
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A8 ] NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov,)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
900 T
[Annual rate, billion dollars (crrwt)
280. Cwnpensatitxi of employees, Q
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjsta*O
1952 Hi
54
Si
56
§7
§8
Si
€0
61
«B2
63
64
65
66
6?
68
69
70
71
71
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
16
DECEMBER
1973
BCD
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A9
SAVING
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
290. Gross saving (private and governmWT"
292. Personal saving, u
294. Undistributed corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment, 0
296. Capital consumption allowances, Q
298. Government surplus or deficit, Q
1952 §3
S4
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
(12
63
64
65
[66 67
68
69
7©
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
DECEMBER 1973
KCII
17
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A10
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Rib.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
Annual rate, billion dollaciilfflB
273. final sales, 1958 dollars, Q
246. Change in business inventories,
IffiB dollars Q
247. Fixed investment, nonresident!
241. Fixed investment, residential structures, 1958 dollars, Q
231. Personal consumption expenditures,
total, 1958 dollars, Q
283. Federal Government purchases of goods
and services: 1958 dollars, Q
267. State and local government purchases
of goods and services, 1958 dollars,Q
249. Gross afto product, 1958 dollars, Q
1952
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Currant <tata for thata series ore shown on pages 69, 70, and 72.
18
DECEMBER 1973
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Gross National Product Shares
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
230A. Personal consumption expenditures as percent of GNP, Q
60-
50-
40-
I
30-
241A. Fixed investment, nonresidential,
as percent of GNP, Q
266A. State and local government
purchases of goods and services
asprenluf GNP, Q
20-
of goods and services as percent of GNP, Q
Sf Fixed investment, residential structures as percent of' BNP.a ^~~l: E3
10-
0J
j.
245A. Change in business inventories as percent of GHP, Q
National Income Shares
80°
280A. Compensation of employees a;t percent of national income, Q
70-
60-
50-
40-
30-
286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation
•adptment as percent of national income, Q
'20
10-
284A. Rental income of persons^s peroeflt of national income, 8
1952 53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
m Net
62
interest as percent of national income,
453 64
65
06
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
IBU) DECEMBER 1973
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Marginal Employment Adjustments
l Average workweek, production workers,"
manufacturing (hours)
41 •
40 =
39*=
4'
3c
l-~
1-
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
->—
--—i 100'
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale)
195£ 53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Currant data for these aeries are shown on page 74.
20
DECEMBER 1973
BCD
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Economic Process anjd Cyclical Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
.) (Nov.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
I
Job Vacancies
300 -i
250-
LJI
50. Number of job vacancies, mfg. (thousands)
200"
150100-
50-
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: T9GMiOy
125-
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (ann. rate, bill, man-hours)
*41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions!
8580-
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities (millions)
6580-
55-
1952
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
21
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
[ C
Chartjjf]
hartj
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT— Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Juty)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Fob.)
P T
Comprehensive Unemployment
2-
*43. fjttgfiployiefit rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
345=
6-
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)
4567-
OoeniployraeBt rate, iarried males
Lagging Indicators
Long-Duration Unemployment
Uwmployraeflt rate, persons unenployed 15 weeks and over (percefit-inverted scale)
•*
M
23-
1952 53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for those series ore shown on page 75.
22
DECEMBER
1973
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
T
1400
Comprehensive Production
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
*200, GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
800-
900
850
•205. GNP in 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
800
750
700
140
130
120
110
100-
IIOO-i
10501000-
Industrial prodsction (index: 1967=100)
950900850800750700-
650 =
280 -,
^x Hi
Personal income (am. rate, bil. dul.)
250240230220210200190«
180170160-
53. Wages and salaries in mining,
manufacturing, construction ~~
(ann. rate, bit. dol.)
150«
140130120110-
100
90
8070-
1952
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62: 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Note: For this economic process (I.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
'
DECEMBER 1973
KCII
23
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
[Chart B£] PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (bil. dol.
59, Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (bil. dol.)
14J
1931
53
54
55
5(5
57
58
59
SO
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1B74
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e.. Production; Income, Consumption, and Tradu), no leading or lagging Indicators have as yet been selected.
Currem data for those series arc shown on page 76.
24
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Economic Process a^d Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
Wy) (Aug.)
P
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
P
T
I
Formation of Business Enterprises
nei Business iwaiimi (index: I96MM)
13. New business incorporations (thousands]
*6. New orders, durable pods industries tyl. dol.)
8. Construction contracts, total value (index: 1967-10(1;
i MCD moving avg.--5-term)1
~
*10. Contracts and orders;, plant and equipment (bil. dol.)
53
§4
iS
SS
§7
§8
§§
60
61
it
63
64
65
67
6S
69
70
71
73 1§74
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Cur (rent data for these series are shown on page 77.
DECEMBER 1973
IICII
25
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
B3
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
(Jufy) (Apr.)
P T
P
T
9. CoHstratiof contracts, commercial aid industrial (nil, sq. ft. ;
of flwr area; HCD moving avg.-B-temi)1——.
„ (111; ^
„
P
T
11. few capital appropriatfciK, manufacturing, 0 (tail, dol.)
24. Maflifactiraft' iifiw orders, capital goods industries,
nondefense (Ml. dol.)
^
New private huusing units started, total (arm, rale, millions;
29. New tailing iiernits, private housing units (index: 1967*100)
1952 S3
54
§5
56
57
i8
5S
6©
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
6§
70
71
72
73 1974
Vhls is a copyrighted series used by par miss Ion; It may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Cummt data for these series are shown on pages 77 and"78.
26
DECEMBER 1973
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Aug.)
I
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.)
T
Backlog of Investment Commitments
120-1
100-.
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil. dol.)
80-
60 =
40-i
3530-
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dol.)1
2520-
15-
10-
Lagging Indicators
t20-
[Investment Expenditures
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bil. tol.L
100806018016014012010080-
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction
expenditures (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
60-
40J
1952
!>3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Vhis is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
IECII
DECEMBER 1973
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
ChartJSWj INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
{July}
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
'inventory Investment and Purchasing
t-20-
245. Change in business inventories, Q
(am. rate, bil. dol.)
+10-
(ann. rate, bil. dol; ^
MCD moving avg.--6-terni)
+28+20-
0-
" "37. "fircSasefMkials, perceiff~dra»i|janief reporting Wgier invBSfSs
"V
fi^v*^^
ED
en-
ZU. Ciiange in book value, manufacturers' tnverifories orialerials awl applies
(ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
100
28. Buying policy, production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
53
i4
55
56
57
Si
59
60
61
32
63
64
65
66
67
6S
m
69
70
71
72
T
75-
1974
Cufront data for those serfes are shown on pages 78 and 79.
28
DECEMBER 1973
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B4
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
. . .
(1%)
(teg.)
P
T
'
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.
ffl
^
100 =
50-
25. Change in unfilled order;;, durable goods industries
Oil. dol.; MCO moving ;ivg.~-4-term)
Lagging Indicators
Inventories
*71. Book value, manufacturing anil trade inventories (bii. dot.)"
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (bit. dot.)
53
§4
Si
§©
61
64
6S
(36
69
70
NOTE: For this economic process (I.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicalors have as yet been sel
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
DECEMBER 1973
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators
(Ji%) (Aug.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
T
F
(May) (Feb.)
T
T
180160140120100J
140-
Stock Prices
120100-
Stock prices, 500 common stooks (index: 1941-43=10)
60 J
Profits and Profit Margins
*16. Corporate prtrfits after
18. Corporate profits after taxes, 1958
dollars, Q faun, rate, bil. dol.]
q, profits (after j^ptes) to incn^p or jginating
in corporate Imsi&es!;, Q (percent)
1412«
toe~;
e-
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, manufacturing, Q (cents)
7-t
*17. Rati >, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1967-100)
53
54
56
§7
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
6!>
66
67
60
69
70
71
72
7S 1974
Currant data for theie series are shown on pages 79 and 80.
30
DECEMBER
1973
IICII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B5
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
(JuW
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Cash Flows
130-,
1201101009080-
34. Net cash flsw corporate, current dullars,
Q (ann. rate,
70805040-
3090807060-
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bit. do.)
5040-
/
30-
Roughly Coincident Indicators
135130-
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
125120115-
55. Wholesale prices industrial commodity (index: 1967=100)
110-
139130125120115-
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured good;; (index: 1967=1001
110105100909085-
195;t 53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
IEf.JP DECEMBER 1973
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
[Chart B5 J PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
Lagging Indicators
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Fall)
P T
Unit Labor Costs
Unit labor cost, total private economy63, Index, Q (1967=100)
63c. Change over 1-tprter spans, Q (ann. rate, percent)
Labor cost (cirr, dol.) per unit of real corporate product, Q (dollars)
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1967=100)
-- - — -
S3
B4
95
B7
58
59
§0
61
63
§4
65
S6
§7
71
n
n £974
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
32
DECEMBER
1973
KCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(Nw.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Flows of Money and Credit
+25-
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (H2)
(ann. rate, percent; moving avg.-6-term)
+20+15+10+50=
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks and
institutions (M3) (ami ratti, percent; moving avg.-6-term)
-§+20-
+15-
ttr
+10+5-
85. Change in money supply (Ml) (am. rate, percent; MCTiovig avg.-6-term)
112. Change in business loans ifanh.rSflif.dol.;
53
54
SS
Si
1?
SS
§9
S©
SI
§2
S3
§4
65
66
67
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
DECEMBER 1973
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr)
P T
Flows of Money and Credit-Con,
+30+25+20-
113. Chile in consumer installment debt (am. rate, bil. dol.)
+15+10-
+5-
0-
260-1
220-
180140-
til Total private borrowing, Q (ail rate, lit. riot.)
100 -
60™
20 J
Credit Difficulties
20 n
14. Utilities of business failures (mil. tol-inverted scale; MOD moving tv« .--6-terot)
60100140180220260*
39. DeliRfMflcy rate, 30 days aid over, total installment loans (percent-inverted scale)
1.41.61.82.02.2-
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
f3 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
34
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
B6
Economic Process arid Cyclical Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Uuly)
P
(Jufiy) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Now.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
S3. Free reserves (bit, dol.-inverted scale)
119. federal funds rate (percent)
114. Treasury bill rate (percent)
11B. Corporate bond yields (percent)
\
119. Treasury bond yields (percent)
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
1952
53
54
§5
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
S3
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
DECEMBER 1973
3D
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
B6
Lagging Indicators
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Au&)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
P
T
Outstanding Debt
68. Consumer installment debt (bit, dol.)
*72. Commercial and Mstrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting targe commercial banks
(bil. dol.)
Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
1952
53
§4
SS
IS
5?
Si
S9
SO
61
S2
83
§4
65
SS
§7
§8
69
70
71
72
1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
36
DECEMBER
1973
ItCII
Section B
2UGAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
1
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
P
T
810. Twelve leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted1
(series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 113)
T
Five coincident indicators, estimated
—
1948 49
50
51
52
53
'
'
"ity-
~3
830. Six lagging indicators
(series 44,61,62,67,71,72)
§4
55
§6
§7
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
69
67
68
69
7©
71
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads !-) and lags (+J in months from reference turning dates,
1 Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
DECEMBER 1973
110
37
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
I
ttf.) (Oct.)
F'
1
(May) (Pels.)
P
T
(Now.) (Now,)
P
f
Index;
811. Twelve leaders, prior to tread adjustment
(series 1,5,5,111, iz, ifi, 17, li, 23,23,31, nS)
813. Marginal mpiopM adjastwefits
130-i
ZJDJ
814. Capital ifvestaeflt comments (series 6,10, 12,29)
120110-
BID. inventory investment ana purcnasmg (series 23,25,31,37)
816. PrditiMl} (series 16, 17,19)
817. Sensitive financial flows (series 33, 85,112,113)
1943 49
SO
SH
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
73 1974
Currant data for these series are shown on page 83.
38
DECEMBER
1973
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
*1. Average workweek! production workers,
manufacturing (hour:;)
*5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
*12. Nat business formation (index: 1967400)
*6. New orders, durable goods industries (bif. dot.)
*10. Contracts and orders, plant
asd equipment (bit. di)l.)
iew Building perinsprivate housing «ntiniiex:
1948
49
50
91
52
53
54
55
§0
57' 58
59
60
'SI
62
63
70
731
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 77, and 78.
IBM)
DECEMBER 1973
39
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
(Nov.) (NOT.)
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
P
T
T
11. Change in book value, nwtehirtag and trade inventories
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index; 1941-43=10)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1948
4§
i©
il
§g
S3
54
§§
§6
g?
S8
S9
§0
61
62
$3
1974
Current data for these series are shown on pages 78, 79, 80, and 81.
40
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
Section B
Chart
B8
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
I
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(toy) (Feb.)
P
(Now.) (Won.)
P
T
T
*52, Personal income
200. GNPm
(ann. rate
205. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q
(ann. ratu, bil. dol.
*47. Industrial production
16. Manufacturing and trade sales (bi
*§4. Sales 3f retail stores (bil. do!.)
*41. Employees on nonagricultural
payrolls (millions)
rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75 and 76.
BCII
DECEMBER 1973
41
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Section B
Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Now.) (Oet.)
P
1
(Nsv.) (New.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
'44. Unemploy^it rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scatt)
*B1. Business tipiditires, ww plant and eppert, 8 (m rate, fail, ttol.)
*62. Labor cost per unit ol ptpit, manutactunng (index: 1967=100!
10lr
121110'
100-
A^&
9080'
70«
60'
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reperttoj; large cotmiercial banks (bil. dol.)
li<
9^
7«
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 0 (percent)
7.
3£
49
SO
SI
§a
S3
§4
g§
56
B7
58
B-
62
63
1974
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 78, 79, 60, and 82,
42
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
P
) (Nov.)
T
120110-
and equipment, ail industries, 0
100-
9080-
(a) Actual expenditures (arm. rate, ml. dol.)
70 =
60-
50-
40-
30 -
ID) second anticipations is percent of actual (percent)
109*
?
T?
10095-
(c) First anticipations as percent of actual (percent)
105-
Ui
9?
I
IL IT ?
l,I m
•»IM If t .llltlt T .TT -.1
10095-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
KCII
DECEMBER 1973
43
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Section C
CharT CFI AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(Jt%) (Apr.)
P
T
(Now.) (Nov.)
T
(Feb.)
14ft -
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value, Q (bil. dol.)
200180-
160-
140-
120-
130-j
120IflO-
100-
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total bonk value,
Q (bil.
30BO-
SO-
Sifl-
414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories:
portion! considered high loss-percent—
considered low, Q (percent)
A
I
A\
j
v
r»-*^
•y\.
y-T-*^/
30-
7
10-
w
416, Adequacy of manufacturers1 capacity: percent considered
inadequate less percent considered excessive,
*—
Q (percetit-inverted scale)
30-
\,
19S7
S8
iS
iO
SI
61
i3
64
6S
cfS!
-
66
67
§8
69
'
70
40-
71
72
73
74
Cue i-ent data for thegc series are shown on page 84.
44
DECEMBER
1973
ltd*
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P_ ^ T
(Nov.)
T
420. Current income of to«$Silds compared to income a year ago, Q
60"!
(a) Percent of households reporting no change in family income (percent
50-
40-
(b) Percent of hoseholds reporting higher family income (percent
30-
20-
(c) Percent of households reporting lower family income (percent
10-
0-1
425. Mian probability of substantial changes in income of households, Q
-f"*-
(b) Increase less decrease (percent)
•'
•
/
,
:
;
,
-•
!'
S
15-
*
(c)! Mean probability of decrease in family income (percent)
i
^A.
V
(a) Mean probability of increase in family income (percent)
•»•-
A
10-
**^
v
v-*
•^^Nj.^-r**"*
5-
10-
438. luiter of new cars put toed by tiuuseliulds, ft
(am. rate, mil, cars)
9-
7-
i
tctuai oata iperceni) '
]
i v
iirii
ii i
'•
i
110-
T
i1
°1*
?
D
.; ; ; : ;'
l
^
100-
90-
85110-i
;t. Q 1966=100)
10090-
i
8070^_
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
IBM) DECEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
45
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Section C
Chart C2 J DIFFUSION INDEXES
(Nov.) (Nov.)
IP
T
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)
061. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-Q span)
_
Actial
Anticipated «•+*•*
IflS
/-V JUnhiinl
lav
ftciU3i
0440. New orders, namfactariRg (4-8 spa)'
D442. Net profits, •amfactiriiig art trade (4-fl span)
U44b, Nimtitir of employees, manufacturing and trade (4~Q span)
50-
—I 40 -1
1S57 58
59
60
61
82
§3
64
65
66
§7
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
Currant data for these series are shown on page 65.
'This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
46
Inc.
DECEMBER 1973
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P I
'.(Nov.) (Nov.)
i P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)
100-1
Actual
Anticipated
D450. Level of inventories, mjnufacturing and trade (4~Q span)
D460. Selling prices, m; niter ing and trade (44 span)1
75-
50 J
100-1
0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span!
75-
D464. Selling prices, wlnlesal.j trade (44 span)1
75-
50-J
100-i
B4SI. Seinng prices, retail trade (4-Q span)
75-
50J
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
DECEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
47
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
r<
Chart Dl
FOREIGN TRADE
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
500. Merchandise trade balance
dot.; MCII moving avg.~6-tem*)
582, Exports, except military aid (till. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-teri)
506. Export irters, durables except motor vehicles
. tot.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
506. Expwt orders, nonelectrical
(indBX: 1957-59 -100; MCD
MCD moving avg.-4-ten)
33
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
48
DECEMBER
1973
licit
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart 02
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
251 Balance on goods $d services
515. Balance on goods, services
517. Balance on c«rr0nt
519. Balance on current account. ...
and long-term '~^'
-*
cial reserve transactions balance ^
1952 53
54
55
56
57
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 87.
BUI
DECEMBER
1973
49
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July) (Apr)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov,)
P
T
(May) (feb.)
P
T
T
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services
100
96
82
88
84
80-
767268-
64 =
6056S2
48
44
530. Liquid liabilities to all foreigners, outstanding at end of period
40
38
32
28
24
foreign official agencies, outstanding at
find of flirind \
20
16
v ^/—— E3
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of period
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
12
1974
Current data lor theto series ar« shown on page 87. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.
50
DECEMBER 1973
itcn
Section D
Chart D2
(JuW
P
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENT?-Con.
(Jyly) (%r.
(tog.)
T
P
T
P
P
T
0 (Wow.)
T
112-1
Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants
Annual rate, billion dollars
Excess of receipts
Excess of payments
Z50. Balance on goods and services
1952 53
S4
55
56
57
§8
59
60
61
62
i3
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
71
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to I960.
KMI DECEMBER 1973
51
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
20 n
Annual rate, billion dollars
Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
16-
E23 Excess of receipts (inflow)
IB Excess of payments (oitllow)
12-
Investment income542:. Income on U.S. investments abroad
*
>>
4-
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
Travtl*
$15. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
4-
0J
54*. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sales and
547. U.S. military expenditures atoroad
&
s
0J
116. Military sales to foreigners
12 n
4-
0J
1952 53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
52
DECEMBER 1973
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS^Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (feb.)
P T
Capital Movements Plus Government
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
+12-1
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
+8-
+4-
o-
». Foreign investment:) in the U.S.
4-12-1
+4-
0-
+4-
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
0-
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
0-
1952 53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
<>4
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current dma for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
DECEMBER 1973
53
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(fee)
I
P
T
Receipts and Expenditures
600. Federal surplus or deficit, natioflil income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1. Federal receipts, national taw and product accounts, Q (ann. rale, bit. to!.)
602. Federal expenditures, national income mi product accounts, Q (m. rate, biLM)
tea80-
53
§4
55
SS
B7
SS
59
60
il
§2
S3
64
65
iS
6?
iS
69
70
72
?1 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
54
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
Section D
Chart D3
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
284. National defense purchases, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
616. Defense Department obligations, total
! (bil. dol.; MCO moving avg.-6-term)
A^I BH
621. Defense department obligations, procurement
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.--6-ti!rm)
f—-H-i
647. New orders, defense products industries
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-li-l
648. New orders, defense
products (bil. dol, MCD
moving avg.-6-term)
625. Military contract awards in ti.I.
lisa S3 S4
70
71
71
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 89,
l DECEMBER 1973
55
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
150145140135-
130J
140 -i
211. Fixed wrtftold pr«* We*, Brass private product
(variable weights prior to 1965), Q (index: 1958-100)
135-
130 =
125
211c. Change in fixed weighted price index, gross private product,
over l-i
781c. Change in consumer price index, all items (seasonally adjj-
m
One-month spans1
il
54 il
56
S?
S9
SO
il
SI
§4
Si
67
iS
71
72
1974
V)ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualIzed changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
56
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Index: _
1967-100 1
1
HEn
~
~«
j
';,
/
!
__
145140135130-
f
__jL-
Wholesale prices
125120 =
115-
.
-
„
^-r^T.—
751. Processed foods and feeds
55c, JhMeJDJ*!!!y.?l?!!! ILC11'yiKii,™*?!!!!1 SPWffl1!J?!l?ona!Ll M-);
Six-immth spans (ann. rate)
Si
62
65
SS
n 1S74
lOne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against th<t background of the annual red changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on patje 91.
KCII
DECEMBER 1973
57
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
I!'
Chart D5
(July)
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
(Aug.)
(JitW (Apr.)
P T
P
(Nsv.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
BD
180 =
14(1 130120-
Average hourly earnings ef production workers,
private nonfarm economy (annual data prior to 1964)-740. Current dollar earnings (index: 1967
741. Real earnings (index; 1967 = 100)
U587KeaTspenfiile avg.~we«l(Iy earnings, nonagri. production
or WBisupervisory workers (1967 dollars]
140-
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm ecottwy-
130 '
745. Current dollar compensation, 0
(index: 1967 =
748. Real compensation,
(index: 1967 = 100)
11(1ItDtl-
770. Output per man-hour, total private
economy, Q (index: 1967 = 100)
Productivity
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm,
0 (index: 1967 = 100)
S3
B4
SS
S6
57
iS
Si
71
72
Current data for th«e series arc shown on pages 92 and 93,
58
DECEMBER
1973
ItCII
Section D
Chart
D5
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
(July) (ftpr.)
P T
w.) (Wow.)
P
T
Pay) (Feb.)
P T
Change in avg. hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy, adj.1--
740c. Current dollar earnings
741C. Real earnings
Change in avg. hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy, Q--
745c. Current dollar compensation
One-qiiartiir span (ann. rate!
V
Four-quarter span
746c. Real compensation
One-parter
span (ann. rate)
;
"*•
•i
;-\—~ —- *
*^
N
HegotiafeifHage andlenfflfilicisils;W W
748. First year avg. changes, Q (ann. rate).
749. Average changes over life of ^
contract, Q (ann. rate)
^
Productivity
770c. Change in output per man-hour, total private economy, Q
^line-quarter span (ami rate)
7
A
Four-quarter span'*
]/
i
V
m
§4
65
SS
SJ
Si
©©
^©
^g
?I
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and Interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2One-month percent changes h<We been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annual ized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
KCII
DECEMBER 1973
59
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D6
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(Inly) (Au&)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr)
P T
T
845. Females 20 years and over
. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
fl
1951' S3
54
S5
Si
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
W. Negro ami other rates
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
?i 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
60
DECEMBER 1973
itcn
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONA^ PRODUCT
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
860840820800780760740-
Gross National Product ta 1958 dollars, 8
720700680660640620600580560 -
I
540 -
§20500"
480460-
440-
420-
400-
380-
•, •
,
1952
I: i! - 'L .
53
54
'
•. .:' ..,. ^
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 95.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4..'» percent from 4th quarter 1969 t<f> 3rd quarter 1973. See special note on page 95.
ItCII
DECEMBER
1973
61
tSSHai ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E2 1 ANALYTICAL RATIOS
. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing, Q (percent)
851. Ratio, Inventories to sates, manufactory and trade (ratio)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries (ratio)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods
Ratio, help wanted advertising to
of persons tfCMplgml (ratio)
857. Vacancy rate in total
renlalliouslng.! pcent)
i3
§4
SS
SS
Sf
SS
Bi
71
n
V3 IS74
Current data for thaw terlei are shown on page 96.
62
DECEMBER
1973
KCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart
DIFFUSION INDEXES
E3
Leading Indicators
»)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
.) (Nov.)
T
(fey) (Feb.)
F T
Percent rising
D1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing--? 1 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
10050-
06. New orders, durable goods industries--35 Industrie,) (9-nio. span —, 1-mo. span—)
011. Newly approved capital appropriations--!? industries (3-Q span*~«, 1-Q span-—I1
034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher prof ts-aliout 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span)
019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-68-82 industries (9-mo. span—-, 1-mo. span—-)
D23. industrial materials prtces-13 industrial materials (9-mci. span —, 1-mo.
HtfM
» JL
ii ,
/•
. / f . ,«
^HSnffln^r^
D5. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-47 arnas (percent declining; 9-mo. span —, 1-mo, span—--)
13
54
El
Si
SS !67
1974
T
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference BoeJd.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1973
63
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
E3
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Percent rising I
041. Employees ot^agricultural pijriHls-30 industries (6-m. span —, 1-mo. span—)
D47. Industrial production-24 industries (6-nto. span—, 1-mo. span -160-
058. Wholesale prices, manufactured goetds-22 industries (6-rao. span — , 1-mo. span—-)
D54. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span —, 1-mo. span—.)
si
S4
gs
si
e?
6?
§8
70
71
Current data for these series are shown on page 98.
64
DECEMBER
1973
BCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E5
RATES OF CHANGE
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Percent change, annual rate
200. (c) GNP in current dollars (1-Q span)
205. (c) GNP in constant dollars (1-0 span)
0. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47,52, 56)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
f
)
m
74
1975
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult 'Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide," pp. 119, 120, and 121.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/DECEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
65
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Ichart>1 1 CONSUMER PRICES
(JuW (Apr.)
F T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Now.) (Nov.)
P
T
Consumer prices-
1974
Curront data lor these series are shown on page 103.
66
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
COMPARISONS
Section F
Chart F2
P
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(Jity) (Apr.)
P
T
T
(May) (Feb.)
F T
(Wow.) (Wow.)
P
T
Industrial production-
1152 S3
54
§§
Si
57
SS
59
6©
72
73 1S74
Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.
DECEMBER 1973
67
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F3
STOCK PRICES
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P T
P
T
Stock prices-
1952 53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 104.
68
DECEMBER 1973
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
200. Current dollars
a. Total
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
205. Constant (1958) dollars
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
a. Total
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
210. Implicit pries deflator
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
a. Total
b. Difference
(Index:
1958-100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1970
First quarter ...
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
953.5
970.6
987.4
991.8
+9.6
+12.1
+16.8
+4.4
+4.1
+5.1
+7.1
+1.8
721.2
722.1
727.2
719*3
-3.9
+0.9
+5.1
-7.9
-2.1
+0.5
+2.9
-4.3
132.9
134-4
135.8
137.9
+2.0
+1.5
+1.4
+2.1
+6.4
+4.6
+4-1
+6.4
1,027.2
1,046.9
1,063.5
1,084.2
+35.4
+19.7
+16.6
+20.7
+15.0
+7.9
+6.5
+8.0
735.1
740.4
746.9
759.0
+15.8
+5.3
+6.5
+12.1
+9.1
+2.9
+3.6
+6.6
139.7
LU.4
142.4
142.8
+1.8
+1.7
+1.0
+0.4
+5.5
+4.9
+2.8
+1.3
1,112.5
1,142.4
1,166.5
1,199.2
+28.3
+29.9
+24.1
+32.7
+10.9
+11.2
768.0
785.6
796.7
812.3
+9.0
+17.6
+11.1
+15.6
+4.9
+9.5
+5.8
+8.1
144.8
145.4
U6.4
147.6
+2.0
+0.6
+1.0
+1.2
+5.7
+1.6
+2.8
+3.3
1,242.5
1,272.0
1,304.5
+43.3
+29.5
+32.5
+15.2
829.3
834.3
84L.3
+17.0
+5.0
+7.0
+8.7
+2.4
+3.4
149.8
152,5
155.1
+2.2
+2.7
+2.5
+6.1
+7.3
+7.0
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
+8.7
+11.7
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
+9.9
+10.6
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars
217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars
NATlbNAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in current dollars
222. Personal
income in currenl dollars
Disposable personal income
224. Current
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
{Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
fail, dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
4,697
4,744
4,812
4,819
3,534
3,529
3,544
3,495
788.8
797.4
809.3
806.3
785.8
807.7
816.8
822.9
668.2
689.0
702.4
707.2
524.2
535.8
541.6
537.4
3,274
3,367
3,423
3,436
2,569
2,619
2,640
2,611
4,979
5,063
5,130
5,216
3,563
3,580
3,603
3,651
835.9
853.6
865.6
882.7
840.0
859.5
870.2
884.4
727.4
744.0
752.0
760.4
547.8
554.6
556.4
560.9
3,526
3,598
3,628
3,658
2,655
2,682
2,684
2,698
5,342
5,476
5,580
5,724
3,688
3,765
3,811
3,877
911.0
928.3
949.2
978.6
910.8
926.1
943.7
976.1
772.8
785.4
800.9
828.7
565.7
571.6
579.3
595.1
3,711
3,765
3,831
3,955
2,716
2,740
2,771
2,841
5,920
6,051
6,194
3,951
3,969
3,994
1,015.0
1,038.2
ri,067.4
1,019.0
1,047.1
851.5
869.7
891.1
603.9
604.8
609.5
4,057
•4,137
4,231
2,878
2,877
2,894
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
MOTH: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,10, and 65.
DECEMBER 1973
69
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
230. Total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
232. Durable
goods, total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars
234. Automobiles
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
237, Services in
current dollars
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
fAnn. rate,
bl.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarts
604.6
6H.O
623.7
628.3
474.3
477.5
480.9
477.5
90.9
92.8
93.4
88.1
62.1
62.7
63-9
64.5
28.8
30.1
29.5
23.6
257.1
261.2
265.7
271.1
256.6
2S9.9
264*6
269.1
650.0
662.2
673.0
683.4
489.5
493.6
498.0
504-1
100.3
101.9
105.4
106.7
66.0
67.3
63.6
70.6
34.3
34.6
36.8
36.1
273-5
278.0
279. S
283.5
276.1
282.3
700.2
719.2
734.1
752.6
512.5
523.4
531.0
540-5
111.5
115.1
120.2
122.9
74.9
77.0
78.4
81.7
36.6
38.1
41.8
41.2
288. B
297.9
302.3
310.7
300.0
306.2
311.6
319.0
779.4
795.6
816,0
552.7
553.3
558.1
132.2
132.8
132.8
87.1
88.2
88.3
45.1
44.6
44.5
322.2
330.3
341.6
325.0
332.6
341.6
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
287. a
293.2
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quartar
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
242. Nonresidential
structures
{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
24S. Chmijein
business inventories
244. Residential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
133.1
135.4
139.2
137.4
100.0
101.0
102*8
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
98 ,,5
35.6
36.1
36.4
36.5
64.3
64.9
66.5
62.0
31.1
29.5
30.4
33-8
+2.1
+4.9
+6.0
+5.X
145.5
152.7
153.8
160.8
101 ,,4
103,6
104,7
108 ,,0
37.0
37.6
38.4
38.5
64.4
66.0
66.3
69.5
37.1
41.5
44.8
47.5
+7.0
+7.6
+4.3
+5.3
167.5
174.7
181.5
189.4
114,0
116 ,,3
118.3
124-3
41.0
41.5
41.3
43.0
73.1
74-9
77.0
81.2
51.8
52.8
54-5
56.9
+1.7
+5*5
+8.7
194.5
198,2
202.0
130.9
134.1
138,0
45.3
47.2
49.5
85.5
86.9
88.6
59.0
59.6
59.2
+4.6
+4.5
+4.7
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflsct series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
70
DECEMBER 1973
KCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
Qj FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. reite,
bil.dol.)
264. National
defense
262. Federal
260. Total
253. Imports
of goods anci
services
252. Exports
of goods and
services
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
+3.6
+3.9
+4.2
+2.8
61.5
63.1
63.9
63.2
57.9
59.2
59.7
60.4
+3.8
+0.5
+1.1
-2.2
65.9
67.1
69.1
63.0
62.1
66.6
68.0
65.2
-5.5
-5-7
-3.8
-3.5
70.3
69.9
74-0
79.7
0.0
89.7
97.2
217. (2
217.3
220.3
223.3
99.5
95.8
94-7
94-8
78.5
74-0
73.2
72.6
117.8
121.5
125.6
128.5
96.1
96.7
98.2
131.8
134.8
137.3
141.0
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter .....
Fourth quarter
227.9
235-5
242.2
101.2
72.3
71.3
70.3
72.4
75.8
75.6
77.7
83.2
250. J3
254.2
254.7
260.7
106.0
106.7
102.3
102.7
76.5
76.6
71.9
72.4
144-3
147.5
152.4
158.0
89.7
94.4
97.0
268.6
275.fe
279.0
105.5
107.3
106.8
74.3
74.2
74.2
163.0
168.0
172.2
231. b
1972
First quarter
Second quarter . ...
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+2.8
+7.6
104.5
E
Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Durable goods
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
280. Compensation
of employees
Mondurable goods
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
274. Final sjiles
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
282. Proprietors'
income
284. Rental income
of persons
275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dof.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Tnird quarter
Fourth quarter ....
184.1
184-9
186.2
175-0
+0.4
+0.2
+5.2
-1.1
277.8
281.9
285.9
290.9
+1.7
+4-6
+0.8
187.4
188.1
192.8
196.2
+4.1
+4.2
+0.7
-0.9
294.7
297,8
302,4
304.9
205.5
211.4
216.8
222.8
+0.4
+3.2
+5.8
+10.4
309.7
319.6
323.1
332.5
238.1
242.4
246.2
+4.4
+7.3
+8.0
346.9
357.:!
371.4
594.1
600.7
610.1
610.6
67.8
67.4
66.2
66.2
23.2
23.8
24.2
24.4
+2.9
627.6
638.8
648.8
661.2
67.9
68.3
68.6
70.2
24.4
24.7
24.7
24.4
+1.3
+2.5
+2.9
684.3
699.6
713.1
731.2
72.5
73-2
74.1
77.1
24.1
22.6
24.9
24.9
757.4
774.9
794.0
80.6
81.5
85.0
24.7
24.6
25.3
+6.J>
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted [series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,14,15, and 16.
BCII DECEMBER
1973
71
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS~Con.
Year
and
quarter
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Q| SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
296. Capital consumption
allowances
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter . .
Fourth quarter
69.8
69.9
71.3
65.9
33.8
35.6
37.5
39.2
141.5
144.0
147.0
139.8
46.2
57.2
60.8
60.6
9.8
10.1
10.8
8.4
84.7
86.3
88.0
90.0
+0.8
-9.6
-12.6
-19.2
75-8
80.5
80.9
83.4
4-0.2
41.4
42.7
43.5
148.4
153.6
154.4
158.7
59.2
63.5
60.2
57.8
13.5
17.0
17.6
22.1
91.6
92.7
94.6
96.4
-15.9
-19.7
-18.4
-18.6
86.2
88.0
91.5
98.8
43.9
44.8
45.7
46.6
164.8
166.1
172.3
182.2
52.9
45.9
45.8
54.4
19.9
20.8
22.5
26.6
98.4
103.6
102.3
105.1
-5.4
-3.9
+2.0
-3.8
104.3
107.9
rll2.0
47.9
49.4
51.1
190.4
194.6
r202.3
50.0
51.0
51.1
24.6
23.1
r26.4
106.9
109.0
110.6
+8.9
+11.6
r+14.3
197!
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth Quarter . . .
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
QQ REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars
247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars
248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.doi.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
263. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services,
constant (1958)
dollars
207. State and local
government purchases of goods and
services, constant
(1Q5H) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . .
719.3
717.7
722.3
7H.8
+1.9
+4.4
+4.9
+4.5
78.5
78.3
78.6
73.5
22.2
20.8
21.8
24.1
29.3
33.0
31.6
20.0
68.8
64.5
62.4
61.8
73.7
74.6
75.5
76.0
729.3
733.8
74-2.9
75-4.3
+5.8
+6.5
+4.0
+4.7
74-8
75.5
75.6
78.4
25-9
28.3
29.9
31.7
37.2
34.8
37.7
35.9
60.1
59.9
61.1
62.5
76.6
76.8
77.5
79.1
766.9
781.3
790.0
806.0
+1.1
+4.3
+6.6
+6.3
81.5
82.5
83.4
87.5
34.0
34.2
34.7
35.3
36.1
37.7
41.0
41.4
63.0
62.9
58.8
58.6
79.7
81.1
83.0
85.0
826.0
831.0
838.3
+3.3
+3.4
+3.0
91.2
91.5
93.2
35.6
35.3
34.5
46.4
45-5
43.6
58.2
58.2
57.2
86.2
87.0
87.8
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . ,
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identsf bation only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18.
72
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter
Percent of Gross National Product
230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures
244A. Fixed
investment, residential structures
241A. Fixed
investment,
nonresidential
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
245A. Change
in business '
inventories
250A. Net exports of goods
and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
262A. Federal
Govt. purchases of
goods and services
266A, State and local
Govt. purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
3.2
3.0
3.1
3-4
40.4
40.4
4O.4
40.3
10.0
3.6
4.0
4.2
4-4
+0.4
0.0
40.1
62.9
63.0
•62.9
62.8
10.2
10.2
10.1
10.4
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.7
•62.7
62.5
62.6
10.5
10.5
10.6
4.7
4.7
4.5
63.1
63.3
63.2
63.3
10.4
10.4
10.4
63.3
63.3
63.3
63.0
9.9
9.9
9.8
9.9
9.9
9.6
9.6
12.3
12.5
12.7
13.0
-0.2
9.4
9.2
9.2
9.3
12.8
12.9
12.9
13.0
40.2j
-0.5
-0.5
-0.3
-0.3
9.5
9.3
8.8
8.6
13.0
12.9
13.1
13.2
40.4
40.4'
40.4!
0.0
4-0.2
8.5
8.4
8.2
13.1
13.2
13.2
10.4
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
40.6
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Percent of National Inconhe
280A. Compensation
of employees
284A. Rental income
of persons
282A. Proprietors'
income
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
286A. Corporate profits and
inventory valuation
adjustment
288A. Net interest
(Percent)
(Percent)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Th ird quarter..
Fourth quarter
75.3
75.3
75.4
75.7
8.6
8.5
8.2
8.2
8.8
8.8
8.8
8.2
4.3
4.5
4.6
4-9
75.1
74-8
75.0
74.9
8.1
8.0
7.9
8.0
9.1
9.4
9.3
9.4
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
75.1
75.4
75.1
74.7
8.0
7.9
7.8
7.9
9.5
9.5
9.6
10.1
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
74.6
74.6
74.4
7.9
7.9
8.0
10.3
10.4
10.5
4.7
4.8
4.8
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal rr ovement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at thti back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.
ItCII DECEMBER
1973
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PF10CESS
BH EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
*1. Average
workweek of
production workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing
2. Accession
rale, manufacturing
*5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs1
(Per 100
employees)
(Hours)
(Thous.)
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
50. Number of
job vacancies,
manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
46. Irulexof
help-w.inted
ad vu rti sing in
nowsp.ipers
(1867*100)
1971
January
February . . ,
March
39.9
39. 8
39.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.7
3.7
3.9
293
286
296
1.7
1.6
1.5
as
86
84
78
78
79
April
May
June
39.7
-40.0
1<5 Q
2.9
2 9
2 9
3.9
3 9
3 7
284
290
293
1.6
1.5
1.5
87
87
91
79
80
84
July
August
September
40 o
^ 0
? Q
3 ft
/ 0
276
1 %
87
87
39 6
2 8
3?Q
303
1Q
/ n
16
ft7
85
85
82
October „
November
December
39.9
40.0
40.3
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.7
4-1
4 0
291
283
272
1.5
1.4
1.4
92
92
94
83
84
85
January
February
Miirch
4.0.1
40.5
40.4
2 9
3.2
3.3
L A.
266
262
261
1.3
1.2
1.2
98
105
111
89
93
April
May
June . ,
^0 7
4.0.5
40.6
1 *J
3 L
/ /
4 6
3.4
A.O
260
261
291
1 1
1.0
1.4
116
117
126
July
August . . . „
September „ „
40 6
40.6
40 8
3 /
3 5
^ 6
/
260
248
4 • 4t
2jO
12
10
10
12Q
131
138
October . . ,
November . ,
December ,
40.7
40.8
40 7
3.6
3.7
3 8
4.6
A. 5
/ 3
246
2/1
0.9
0 9
1.0
166
161
"3Q
ft
1972
4-4
4.4
/ /
c
2A7
14.6
ftQ
Q^
96
Q7
in/
1fi7
in^
mo
i
no
JLUV
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
/O Q
July
August
September
40.7
40.5
40.8
40.6
1340.6
October
November ...
December
o 7
40.3
FH^/I o
)n Q
>f\ 7
40 6
3 .y
/ Q
4«?
t i>
4.8
4.9
/ n
4tJ
y Q
3
Q
Q
rrj\
E/
-
0 Q
j*
y
^ ft
;}.o
rn\ 5*i
e; i
IH;
3.8
3.7
3.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
3 7
i>3.7
P5.0
(NA)
c
4 *p
2?8
0 Q
17O
OOO
0 Q
17e
230
O"3ft
<i^o
232
ooft
A?o
H)221
248
234
239
P-Sl
0.9
0 8
0 0
O
rt
1.0
0.9
[H>0.7
pO.8
(NA)
17ft
1 7Q
122
119
121
121
T 0*3
12(6
TOO
XV2
T O^
12^
192
190
imrig4
fu^ 1^1
Wy
126
r!20
pl89
(MA)
122
(HA)
MOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by ED; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [fi>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1366 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20,21, and 39.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rioo which is included in figures published by gouroe agency.
74
DECEMBER 1973
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economuc Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj EMPLOYMENT AND UNEM PLOYMENT-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-£on.
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
(Ann. rate, bii.
man-hours)
*4T. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, hibor
force survey1
(Thous.)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs2
*43. Unemployment rate, total1
(Percent)
j
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males1
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over1
(Percent)
1971
137.28
136.47
137.20
70,329
70,276
70,321
7!5,268
7!>,H7
75,047
6.0
5.9
6.0
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.3
3.2
3.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
137.34
137.71
137.88
70,457
70,601
70,570
75,203
7!5, 504
75,360
5.9
6.0
5-8
3.9
4.3
4.3
3.1
3.2
3.1
1.3
1.4
1.4
137.12
137.50
137.67
70,533
70,529
70,897
75,724
75,868
76,108
5.9
6.1
5.9
4.0
4.1
4.6
3.1
3.2
3.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
138.22
138.95
139.36
70,861
71,078
71,264
76,325
76,540
76,631
5.9
6.0
6.0
4.4
4-1
3.8
3.0
3.3
3.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
139-76
140.40
140.87
71,545
71,747
72,033
77,182
77,225
77,756
5.9
5.8
5.9
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.0
2.9
2.8
1.4
1.5
1.4
141.70
142.05
142.66
72,224
72,534
72,705
77,896
78,120
78,421
5.8
5.8
5.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
2.9
2.8
2.9
1.3
1.3
1.3
July
August
September
142.26
142.67
143.73
72,694
73,016
73,268
78,339
78,451 78,677
5.6 1
5.6
5.5
3.6
3.3
3-4
2.7
2.6
2.8
1.3
1.3
1.3
October
November
December
144.27
144.60
144.52
73,584
73,835
74,002
78,739
78,969
79,130
5.5
5.2
5.1
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
January
February
March
145.15
146.28
146.38
74,252
74,715
74,914
79,054
79,703
80,409
5.0
5.1
5.0
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.5
1.1
1.0
1.0
April
May
June
146.98
147. 50
147.92
75,105
75,321
75,526
80,606
80,749
81,271
5.0
5.0
4.8
2.6
2.7
5.7
2.4
2.3
2.3
0.9
0.9
0.9
July
August
September
1A7.69
147.73
1-148.4.2
75,493
75,747
r75,96l
81,098
80,991
81,757
4.7
4.8
4.8 |
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.1
2.1
2.1
Do. 8
October
November
December
r!48.64
DPH9.07
r76,275
H>p76,476
1)82,224
82,052
January
February
March
. ...
April
May
June
July
August
September
...
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
. ..
1973
E>4.5
4.7
2.7
E>p2.3
D2.1
2.2
0,9
0.9
0.9
1.0
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by ED; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), curfent low values are indicated by H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 68). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", jiot available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21,22,41, and 42.
'Beginning with January 1^72, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for
computing this series. Prior to January 1972, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark. 2Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
BCII DECEMBER 1973
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Ecoinomic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q]
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process . . ,
Comprehensive Production
*20Q. Gross na- *2Q5. Gross national product tional product
in current dol- in 1958 dollars
lars
Year
and
month
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
Comprehensive Income
*47. Index of
industrial production
(1967=100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
*56. Manufac53. Wages and
salaries in min- turing and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
(Mil. dol.)
57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
Sales of retail stores
*54. Current
dollar sales
(Mil. dol.)
m. Deflated
(1967 dollar)
sdes
(Mil. dol.)
1971)
January
February
March
1,027.2
735 ll
105.5
106.0
106.0
836.1
839.4
844.5
198.5
196.6
199.3
107,132
108,649
109,949
i,o2ola
32,290
32,850
33,274
27,908
28,392
28,635
April
May
June
1,046*. 9
740 '.4
106.5
107.4
107.4
849.0
854.4
875.1
200.5
202.3
202,6
110,632
111,732
112,938
1,039.2
33,578
33,502
33,827
28,793
28,585
26,740
July
August
September . .
1,0631s
74619
106.7
105.6
107.1
865.0
871.4
874.2
203.1
203.2
204.0
112,234
113,816
113,855
1,059.2
33,688
34,655
35,219
26,573
29,344
29,321
i,Q84*.2
759 lo
106.8
107.4
108,1
877.2
883.3
892.8
205 .0
206.1
209 «6
113,781
116,007
116,095
1,078.9
34,964
3^,574
34,896
29,555
30,020
29,349
January
February
March . „
1,112*5
768*. 6
108,7
110 ,,0
111 ,,6
901.5
912.8
918-0
211,2
214-5
216,8
118,299
117,998
120,239
1,110*.8
34,886
35,345
36,450
29,291
29,553
30,426
April
May
June . . »
1,H2.'4
78516
113,2
113,8
114^4
923.6
927.7
927.0
218,, 8
219.8
220.9
121,352
122,693
122,347
1,136^9
36,296
37,141
36,822
30,272
30,874
30,558
July . . . „
August
September
1,166.5
796.7
115,1
116,, 3
117,6
935.2
944-4
951.3
220.6
223.6
226.3
122,783
126,792
127,656
1,157'.8
37,342
37,969
37,746
30,861
31,302
30,939
October
November
December
1,199^2
812 .*3
119,2
120 ,,2
121 ,,1
967-0
977.6
983-6
229.0
231.1
232.7
130,336
131,918
133,483
1,191.0
39,106
38,713
39,417
31,975
31,551
32,099
January
February
March
1,242!5
829.*3
122 o 2
123 ,,4
123,7
989.1
997.4
1,003.3
235.1
2,38.2
239.5
136,863
138,910
141,010
1,237.8
40,707
41,242
41,979
32,881
•33,073
08)33,264
April
May
June
1,272.'6
834.13
124.1
124.9
125.6
1,011.6
1,018-7
1,026.6
241.8
244.1
247.6
141,274
142,694
142,323
I,26?l5
41,185
41,735
41,179
•32^327
32,529
31,897
E>1,304.'5
E>8u!3
126,7
126,5
rl26l(8
1,035.6
1,047.3
1,058.5
249.2
250.5
253.3
146,469
146,076
rl46,231
E>1,299.'8
42,778
42,363
r42,525
33,059
31,924
r 32, 022
r!27,,0
E>P127.(2
rl,067-5
(R)pl,076.2
r254.8
[H>p256.8
»P15W
r43,08l
[^P43,127
r32,27Q
P32,017
...
October
November
December . .
1972
1973
July
August
September
October . . .
November
December
MOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©, Current high values are indicated by[H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity {series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by[fi>. Series numbers am lor identification
only and (to not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available,
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23,24, and 41.
76
DECEMBER 1973
!!€!»
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Rl FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
FOrm
Emer0rfis8esSineSS
*12. Index of net
business
formation
(1967=100)
N&W lnvestment Commitments
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
(Number)
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil.dol.)
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
vame1
(1967=100)
* 10". Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense
(Bil.dol.}
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and
industrial
buildings1
{Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)
1971
January
February
March
106.2
105.5
108.5
22,563
21,034
23,237
28.72
29.17
29.22
124
126
142
8.33
8.62
8.59
5.70
7.00
7.06
7.06
54.37
50.04
65. U
April
May
June
108.7
109.8
111.7
22,970
24,030
24,314
29.06
28.86
28.84
161
138
147
8.75
8.69
8.86
5i52
7.13
7.18
7.31
54.82
63.40
62.83
July
August
September
112.1
112.9
112.0
24,726
25,165
23,450
29.62
30.83
29.86
151
153
151
8.49
9.03
8.83
5^90
7.10
7.32
7.34
60.67
54-82
70.72
October
November
December
114.1
115.2
115.4
25,152
25,677
25,921
30.49
31.19
31.25
137
155
160
9.04
9.38
9-43
5^90
7.62
7.82
8.02
61.75
68.70
66.69
January
February . . „
March
114.7
114.6
116.9
24,871
25,055
26,862
32.16
32.04
32.45
160
155
159
9.27
9.29
9-77
6.51
7.90
8.15
8.30
59.65
66.72
66.68
April
May
June
118.0
118.5
117.7
26,681
26,243
26,303
33.80
33.99
35.40
167
165
154
10.16
10.38
10.44
7! 66
8.70
8.93
8.98
65-53
81.95
70.51
July
August
September
118.0
117.5
118.7
26,815
26,420
26,798
33.21
35.77
37.29
155
180
187
10.59
10.27
11.66
7^09
8.95
8.90
9.73
67.74
75.65
74.69
October
November
December
120.4
120.2
120.1
27,417
26,387
27,614
37.13
37.46
38.32
171
177
163
11.75
11.54
11.63
8 !2,6
9.62
9.70
9.99
74.61
82.67
78.82
119.1
119.8
[H> 121-9
27,173
28,640
E> 29,914
39.22
39.76
41.02
181
191
193
11.87
11.87
12.06
9.6*4
10.28
10.10
10.57
85.94
86.40
84.30
April
May
June
119.6
119.0
118.2
28,693
28,422
27,859
41-34
42.45
43.02
177
173
183
11.90
12.58
13.64
10.82
10.62
10.92
11.42
83.86
76.21
84.52
July
August
September
118.1
117.7
115.6
27,832
27,696
26,277
42.70
42.69
42.26
177
[H>206
182
13.75
13.53
L3.42
[H)pll'.08
October
November
December
CNA)
(NA)
r44-04
[H>p44.l6
191
194
E)rl4.78
P14-42
1972
1973
January
February
March
11.40
11.03
11.27
rll.60
Dpll.88
E> 99.70
96.22
85.42
93.47
88.57
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated byE); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 68). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 25, 26, and 39.
1
This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9), or The Conference Board (series 11).
ItCII
DECEMBER 1973
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Ecornomic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process „
Year
and
month
H
|^| FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
INVENTORIES AND INVfEMTORY
INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
New Investment
Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Investment Expenditures
Inventory Investment and Purciasing
28. New private *29. Index of
new private
housing units
housing units
started, total
authorized by
local building
permits
(Ann. rate,
(1967-100)
thous.)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil.dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing1
(Bil.dol.)
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
245. Change
in business
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventorios,
total
37. Purchased
nraterials, companies reporting higher
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
1972
January , . . „ „
February
March
195.2
186.8
185.5
70.75
71.03
71.30
2,315
184.9
176.2
189.7
72.10
72.85
75.33
July
August
September
2,244
2,424
2,426
189.2
196.6
203.9
75.73
76.82
78.86
October .
November
Dfcembsr
2,446
2,395
2,369
199-8
191.8
(H>206.7
79.68
80.28
81.99
Jaiuary
February
March
2,497
2,456
2,260
192.4
190.4
183.5
83.43
85.07
88.03
April
May
jyne
2,123
2,413
2,128
167.1
158.4
174.9
90.72
93.88
97.65
July
,
August . . . „
September
2,191
2,094
rl,804
153.4
r!47.2
137.5
99.56
102.62
104.72
October
November
December
rl,636
pi, 698
rll3.4
P109.4
rl07.!8
[H>P109.04
April
May
June
,
.......
.2, 439
H>2,S40
2,313
2,204
a, 318
86! 79
115.70
114.42
116.72
-KU7
+5.4
+6.0
+3.4
49
52
51
119.35
121.35
121.44
+9.6
87! 12
+5.5
+13.9
52
52
4?
19.42
20.38
+4.5
+5.B
87.67
120.74
123.48
122.42
E>+8!7
91^94
125.66
128.20
128.08
+s!2
96! 19
135.46
134.42
134-43
97.76
H> 100 .'96
21^32
23^24
44
56
59
+16.9
+16.7
+13.2
+16.1
+H.S
67
65
64
+4.6
+25.7
+22.5
+16.2
62
63
59
141.42
142.63
146.20
+4.5
+15.1
+25.3
[H>+28.3
56
§6
61
i>H8.03
1U.11
r 146. 54
+4!?
+18.7
+22.3
r+18.3
62
63
66
p+25.0
H>71
1973
25.12
r29.'75
Drp33!27
PH6.70
ra!04^94
(NA)
68
(NA)
1974
January
February
March
alOsiio
April
May
June *
July
August
September
October . . ,
November „
December
NOT£: Ssries are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by|H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by H). Series numbers arc for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk H are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 88). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26,27,28,39,40, and 42.
1
Thls Is a copyrighted 'series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Ths Conference
Board,
78
DECEMBER ]1973
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
LAGGING INDICAT ORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.
Inventories
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies
Year
and
month
Rj PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
^B INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
26. Prod, materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days
or longer®
(Percent
reporting)
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices
Profits and Profit Margins
32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries©
25. Change in
unfilled
orders, durable good!;
industries
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
i
65. Mfrk'
inventories of
finish eq
goods, book
value
*23. Index of
industrial
materials
p rices @
*19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks®
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dijl.)
(1967=100)
(194143-10)
Corporate profits after
taxes
*16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
18. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1971
-0.1
+0.6
-1.2
52
59
56
38
44
46
+0.07
-0.02
-0.48
175.74
176.60
177.38
34.26
34.37
34.57
105.9
107.2
107.8
93.49
97.11
99.60
43 .*8
32 .'?
April
May
June
+5.2
+3.2
+2.0
57
55
58
52
53
50
-0.39
-1.11
-1.58
178.36
179.23
179.57
34.41
34.45
34-42
110.2
108.6
106.1
103.04
101.64
99.72
47.'l
34^8
July
August
September
+2.2
-1.4
-3.3
57
55
52
48
49
48
-0.25
+0.40
40.00
180.19
180.84
182.00
31.18
34.27
3J.56
104-7
106.1
107.5
99.00
97.24
99.40
49.0
35.8
October
November
December
+0.2
-0.2
50
48
51
+0..31
40.40
+0.,21
182.42
182.59
183.62
34.90
34.87
3J.81
107.4
106.9
106.8
97.29
92.78
99.17
50.6
37.0
+1.3"
51
50
45
January
February
March
-1.2
+1.3
-2.9
53
55
56
52
52
58
+0.60
+0.28
+0.;?.6
184.07
184.57
184.86
34.82
34.88
3i04
110.7
113.0
117.2
103.30
105.24
107.69
52.2
37. 8
April
May
June
+0.3
+0.7
-1.1
51
56
56
58
60
60
+0.i30
+0.75
+2.48
185.66
186.82
187.19
35.15
35.28
3^55
119.5
124*3
123.8
108.81
107.65
108.01
53.4
38.3
July
August
September
+5.0
63
63
65
+0.40
+1.08
+2.04
187.68
189.09
190.49
35.59
3^.07
35.98
123.7
124.6
124.8
107.21
111.01
109.39
55'.6
39-7
+0.2
54
57
56
October
November
December
+2.2
+1.7
+2.0
64
63
62
73
70
77
+O.J&
+0.159
+1.71
191.58
192.92
194.15
3^.71
35.70
35|.SO
128.1
131.6
134-8
109.56
115.05
117.50
60*,3
42^8
January
February
March
+4.1
+6.0
+4.2
63
68
67
78
84
88
+1./M4-
196.30
198.17
199.52
3i72
35.80
36J.06
139-3
147.5
155.3
66 ".9
47.'6
April
May
June
+4.2
+5.3
+6.9
77
80
78
90
E>92
89
+2.69
+3.16
E>+3.%
200.79
202.90
205.25
35.95
36.32
36.70
158.2
162.9
170.1
110.27
107.22
104.75
July
August
September
+7.6
+6.3
+7.0
32
80
83
88
88
90
+1.91
+3.06
+2.3,0
206.81
208.67
r2!0.19
36.72
36..60
36.90
178.1
189.8
186.3
105.83
103.80
105.61
B>87
84
90
91
r+2.47
p+1.86
E>36.98
r!88.1
H>192.4
1
207.8
January
February
March
...
•1972
+4. 2
1973
October
November
December
E>+7.9
(NA)
+1.64
+2.96
E P21
' M1
(NA)
E>118.42
114.16.
112.42
(H> 71 -*6
71.5
E> 49.2
48.5
109.84
102.03
93.52
3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted Iseries are indicated by (§). Current high values are indicated by ED; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Spries preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 88). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", npt available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28,29, 30,40, and 42.
1
Average for December 4, 11, and 18. S Average for December 5, 12Jmand 19.
DECEMBER 1973
79
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
IIHj PRICES, COSTS, AND PRQFITS-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Yeer
and
month
Profits and Profit Margins-Con.
22. Ratio,
profits to
income
orig. in
corporate
business
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all
mfg. corp.
*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.
(Percent)
(Cents)
(1967-100)
Cash Flow
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
34. Current
dollars
55, Index of
wholesale
prices,
35. Constant industrial
(1958) dol. commod.®
(Ann. rate,
bil.dul.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Net cash flow, corporate
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods®
Unit labor cost, total
private economy
63. Index
(1967-100)
(1967^100)
(1967-100)
63c. Change
over 1-Q
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)
*62, Index
of labor
cost per
unit of out-
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per
unit of qiosi!
prod. (19GB
dol.), corp.
(Dollars)
put, mfg.
(1907-100)
1971
January
February
March
B.5
i!6
96.4
96.6
96.8
77.3
57."6
112.2
112.5
112.8
111.8
112.4
112.7
121.0
April . „
May
June
B\B
4-2
97.1
97.4
97.6
8l!8
59^6
...
113.3
113.7
113.9
113.0
113.5
113.8
122^4
July .
August
.
September . «,
9.3
i\2
97.3
97.1
98,2
84.*7
6l!2
114-5
115.1
115.0
114.5
114-9
114.7
123.* 3
October
Novembsr
December „
9.1
4*1
97.9
97.8
97.4
8?!?
63!?
115.0
114.9
115.3
114.5
114.5
115.1
123.6
January
February . „
March
9.4
4-2
97.5
97.1
97.9
89.9
64-3
115.9
116.5
116.8
115.7
116.5
116.7
125^9
April
May
June
9.3
l'.2
97.9
98.4
98.5
93^6
66.*4
117.3
117.6
117 ,,9
116.9
117.4
117.8
125*7
July
August
September
9.5
40
95^4
67^3
118.1
118.5
118 ,,7
118.3
118.5
118.8
126! 3
October
November .
December
9.'8
4^4
100.6
101.1
102.2
101.9
71.7
118.8
119.1
119.4
118.8
119.2
120.7
126.9
io'.5
4-7
102.2
102.9
105.1
109! 2
76.'l
120.0
121.3
122.7
121.6
123.6
125.7
128*5
H>4-'8
104.4
105.5
106.2
114! 7
i>78-3
124-4
125.8
126.9
126.7
128.7
130.9
13CK 9
4!?
105.7
rl08.8
r!06.8
126.9
127.4
128.1
129.8
134.0
132.5
129.6
D133.5
133.0
[H>135.8
...
...
-0.6
o.aao
116.1
1X6.2
116.4
0.824
116.2
116.5
116.5
0.828
117.5
118.7
116.9
0.828
117.1
117.3
118.3
0.842
118.9
120.1
119.0
0.845
119.4
119.4
119.6
0.85C
119.0
118.9
118.2
0.853
118.2
118.2
.118.3
4*5
2.9
1.3
1972
99.3
99.8
100.4
7.6
-0.5
1.7
2.G
1973
January .
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November
December
» ii!i
rio!?
r!06.6
[R)pl09.0
H>115!2
7?! 8
119. a
5.2
0.861
119.7
119.6
®7.6
r7.2
H>rl33.*2
121.0
121.7
122.5
0.87/,
122.4
HXo.-f*8:i
r!23 .3
r!24.3
P125.2
jfj)pl25.4
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by IB); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [R>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in ths 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 08). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31,32,40, and 42.
80
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
I
l
l MONEY AND CREDIT
LEADING INDICATJORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply (Ml)
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
percent)
102. Change in 103. Change in
money sup. plus
money supply
time dep. at
plus time deposits at comm. banks and nonbanks (M2)
bank inst. (M3)
{Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change 112. Change
in mortgage
in business
debt heldtayfin.loans
inst. and life
insurance1
(Ann. ra'te,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*113. Net
change in consumer installment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dot.)
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures®
(Mil.dol.)
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment
loans
(Percent)
1971
January
February
March
+2.71
+14.07
+9.63
+12.14
[H)+20.12
+18.41
+14.22
[H}+20.16
+18.91
+23.92
+23 ,,3 8
+29 ,,89
-3-97
+5.69
+1.70
+2.72
+6.24
+7.56
107,896
168.80
150.90
224.65
April
May .
June
+9.55
+13-68
+9.S9
+12.45
+13.39
+10.07
+15.22
+14.85
+11.70
+30,, 90
+34^64
+39,96
-8.26
+6.64
-0.18
+9.73
+6.80
+6.95
116,156
153.80
249.49
165.84
+8.26
+2.56
+1-53
+8.41
+4.96
+4.68
+10.90
+8.06
+7.66
+44,58
+44,27
+40,45
-7.20
+16.03
+20.42
+8.30
+10.81
+13.22
. . .
+4. 09
+9-32
+7 70
+8 93
+11.00
+9 56
+10.31
+36,79
+40,10
+45 ,,40
- -5-54
-0.95
-4.58
+10.50
+14.30
+10.68
117,480
.. .
-0 *n
+2 04,
+10.38
+15 . 07
+12,40
+13.19
+16 . 80
+14.16
+37-37
+35-63
+44.39
-8.48
+6.52
+4.70
+13.21
+10.60
+15.77
127,096
101.62
191.33
220.66
+7 95
+3.95
+6 40
+7 85
+8.29
+9 20
+10.65
+10.09
+11 10
+44.68
+50,83
+51.82
+10.31
+4.72
-6.83
+11.88
+15.98
+16.63
138,432
148.47
190.14
127 . 90
+12.73
+4.36
+7.24
+12.50
+9.28
+8.73
+13-94
+11.63
+11.22
+49 -.46
+57,98
+49.06
+1.10
+7.00
+12.02
+13.13
+19.72
+15.43
150,700
204.62
253.62
113.54
+7.20
+12 . 02
+9 81
+12 39
+18.56
+16.78
+13 . 94
+17.95
+20.62
+19 . 96
179,572
+13 "30
+10.08
+7 90
+12 24
152.97
208.58
[H)86.79
-0 47
+6 11
-0 47
+6 40
+5 91
+4 75
+9.78
+8 98
+6 on
+/2 SQ
+.eo &£.
+/1 *>£
+7.48
+12.44
+8 11
+9.85
+10./"3
+8.43
+9 08
+10.42
+48.90
+55.80
i*+60 56
+25 87
+14.54
+14.52
+5 02
+5 06
+c. 72
[DW+Al 7/
+22 51
4-£ oc
4_q qo
+4 17
r+57.9Q
+OG QA
July
August
September
October
November
December
143,260
...
147.03
155.56
115.85
144.70
1P9.00
111.32
1.81
1.72
...
1.31
1.75
...
1.94
0)1.68
1972
+1.02
[H) +14.73
+11 . 54
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October . . . „
November
December .
+% 2%
...
1-+47.15
+5/29
+60 ^.3
1.73
1.79
1 87
1.92
2.03
1.92
1973
January
February
March
.
April
May
June
...
•+10 . 69
.. .
July
August
September
October
November
1 December .
-|
GO
O
'1*7
+4.56
p+10 .89
+1.57
...
MOTIF- 5\oriPQ aro coacn Talk/
+10.43
p+11.63
3
+2. 99
aHinctarl ovr ont thnco corioc th at
-LO
-] Q
+9.12
01
p+10
onnoor tn rnnta
+ 11
(\C
+23 94
ftj\ +*;o <52
v+/ 1 1 7
+5 86
p+36.73
(N/n
3
-1 46
-0 65
+23.39
+23 96 [H)189,052
[H)+24 53
+16 85
+23 39
-j r-tr}
rpni
+TQ o/
+23.98
+22 74
+16 31
205 . 84
137.16
252.35
2 02
n Q **>i
2 r\c
1 &7 Q^
180 21
2 m
206 19
pl65 972
+20 40
fWfl 1 )
1QO 15
2.00
189.47
185 66
OT
ft
2 • 1±j3
fry
+3 ?Q
In nn ;oacnn:il mrufoment 1 InaHiucta H
cor lac ara inrliratorl h\j (\$\
Purrant hinh u'llticic art! mr(ir>atarl hw lH) < -fnr
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 68). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", hot available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33, 34, and 40.
^Data include conventional mortgages held by the Government National Mortgage!Association.
Average for weeks ended December 5 and 12,
IICII
DECEMBER
1973
81
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS .„
Bj MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process . . , =
LAGGING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank
Reserves
93. Free
reserves ®
11 9. Federal funds
rate®
11 5. Treas- 117. Munic- 66. Consumer
114. Treas- 116. Corinstallment
ipal bond
porate bond ury bond
ury bill
debt
rate@
yields © yields® yields ®
(Mil. (in!.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Year
and
month
(Percent)
Interest Rfitei;
Outstanding Debt
Interest Rates
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dot.)
*72. Commercial 109. Aver- *G7. Bank
age prime rates on
and industrial
rate charged short-term
loans outstandby banks® business
ing, weekly reloans, 35
porting large
cities®
commercial
banks
(Percent!
(Percent)
(Mil. dot.)
118. Mortgage yields,
residential ®
(Percent)
1971
January
February
March
-91
-127
-120
4.14
3.72
3.71
4.49
3.77
3.32
7.63
7.54
7.62
5.92
5.84
5.71
5.36
5.23
5.17
99,774
100,294
100,924
83,235
83,709
83,851
6.29
5.68
5.43
6! 59
(NA)
(NA)
7.32
April
May
June
-a
-18
-322
4.15
4.63
4.91
3-78
4.14
4.70
7.76
8.25
8.15
5.75
5.96
5.94
5.37
5.90
5.95
101,735
102,302
102,881
83,163
83,716
83,701
5.25
5.42
5.50
e! 61
7.37
7.75
7.89
July „
August . , , . o
September . „
-658
-606
-295
5.31
5.57
5.55
5.40
5.08
4.67
8.24
8.14
7.90
5.91
5.78
5.56
E>6.06
" 5.82
5.37
103,573
104,474
105,576
83,101
84,437
86,139
5.90
6.00
6.00
6! 51
7.97
7.92
7.84
October
November *
December . .
-153
-144
+58
5.20
4.91
4.14
4.49
4.19
4.02
7.72
7.67
7.54
5.46
5.48
5.62
5.06
5.20
5.21
106,451
107,643
108,533
85,677
85,598
85,216
5.91
5.47
5.25
fiiitt
7.75
7.62
7.59
January
February
March
+153
+91
+134
3.50
3.29
3.83
3.40
3.18
3.72
7.36
7.57
7.53
5.62
5.67
5.66
5.12
5.28
5.31
109,634
110,517
111,831
84,509
85,052
85,444
5.18
4.75
4.75
5! 52
7.49
7.46
7.45
April
May
June
+27
-15
+110
4.17
4.27
4-46
3.72
3.65
3.87
7.77
7.61
7.63
5.74
5.U
5.59
5.43
5.30
5.34
112,821
114,153
115,539
86,303
86,696
86,127
4.98
5.00
5.04
5^59
7.50
7.53
7.54
July
August
September
-55
-183
-352
4.55
4.80
4.87
4.06
4.01
4.65
7.72
7.59
7.72
5.59
5.59
5.70
5.41
5.30
5.36
116,633
118,276
119,562
86,218
86,801
87,803
5.25
5.27
5.50
5.84
7.54
7.55
7.56
October ...
November
December
-327
-292
-830
5.04
5.06
5.33
4.72
4.77
5.06
7.66
7.46
7.50
5.69
5.51
5.63
5.18
5.02
5.05
121,058
122,776
124,439
89,350
90,748
91,910
5.73
5.75
5.79
6.33
7.57
7.57
7.%
January
February
March
-823
-1,388
-1,563
5.94
6.58
7.09
5-31
5.56
6.05
7.61
7.67
7.75
5.96
6.14
6.20
5.05
5.13
5.29
126,388
128,385
130,429
93,905
98,148
101,613
6.00
6.02
6.30
6! 52
7.55
7.56
7.63
April . . r
May ... „
-1,564
-1,638
-1,653
7.12
7.84
8.49
6.29
6.35
7.19
7.70
7.69
7.73
6.11
6.25
6.32
5.15
5.14
5.18
131,833
133,824
135,436
103,769
104,981
106,191
6.60
7.01
7.49
7 "3:5
7.73
7.79
7.89
10.40
-1,584
10.50
i>-l,734
-1,477 1)10.78
8.02
B>8.67
8.48
7.97
6.53
D8.45 H>6.85
8.10
6.42
5.40
5.48
5.10
137,434
139,329
140,688
108,067
110,514
E> 111,002
8.30
9.23
9. 86
[H)9^4
8.19
(NA)
i)9.18
1972
1973
June
JuDy . . . „
August . „ .
September
October
November
December . .
r-l,LU
-1,253
1
-1,204
3
10.01
10.03
10. 13
3
7.16
7.87
7.37
7.96
4 7.94
4
8.02
4
6.25
6.30
6.31
6
5.05 |j>pl42,388
5.18
(NA)
5. 10
110,880
110,826
111,100
1
®9.94
9.75
9.75
8.97
8.86
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by (H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by(R). Series numbers are far identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1906 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35, 36, and 42.
1
Average for weeks ended December 5 and 12. 3Average for weeks ended December 5, 12, and 19. 3Average for weeks ended
December 6, 13, and 20. 4Average for weeks ended December 7 and 14. 6Average for weeks ended December 6 and 13. flAverage
for December 1st through 21st.
82
DECEMBER 1973
!!€!»
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
0| COMPOSITE INDEXES
Year
and
month
810. Twelve
leaders, reverse trend adjusted 1 (series
1,5,6, 10,12,
16,17,19,23,
29,31,113)
8 11. Twelve
leaders, prior
to trend adjustment
(same components as
in series 810)
820. Five
coincides,
estimated
aggregate
economic
activity
(series 41, 43,
47, 52, 56)
825. Five
coinciders, estimated aggregate economic
activity,
deflated
(series 41, 43,
47, 52D, 56DJ
830. Six
laggers
(series 44,
61,62,67,
71,72)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
81 3. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1,2,
3,5)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12,29)
815. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25,31,37)
81 6. Prof itability
(series 16,
17,19)
817. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33, 85,
112,113)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
1971
January
February
March
117.9
119.8
121.8
100.6
101.8
103.1
120.0
120.7
121.2
112.4
113.0
113.2
128.9
127.8
127.9
92.7
93.1
93.6
107.3
107.1
109.1
101.9
102.6
102.5
94.9
97.1
98.3
99.9
102.8
105.4
April
May
June
123.7
124.6
124.7
104-3
104.7
104.4
122.1
123.0
124.6
113.9
114.5
115.9
127.5
127.3
127.9
93.5
93.9
94.0
109.2
110.5
111.0
104.1
102.8
101.5
99.7
100.3
100.4
106.5
106.1
107.3
July
August
September
126.1
126.6
128.1
105.1
105.1
106.1
123.5
123.6
125.0
114.5
114. 5
116.0
128.4
130.0
' 130.1
93.4
92.6
92.9
111.9
112.9
111.9
102.5
102.6
102.0
100.3
100.1
101.7
108.1
110.0
109.5
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
128.8
130.1
131.8
106.2
106.9
107.8
125.0
126.2
127.2
116.0
117.1
117.7
130.1
130.2
130.5
93.3
95.3
95.7
113.3
114.5
114.8
101.1
101.2
102.8
101.3
100.5
101.8
105.0
104.3
103.3
133.4
134.2
137.0
108.8
109-0
110.9
128.8
130.2
131.8
119.2
120,4
121,8
130.7
130.8
131.0
97.4
97.9
98.6
114. v
115.2
116.1
103.5
104.3
105.0
102.9
103.2
104.5
105.9
107.3
115.2
April
May
June
138.7
140.5
141.0
111.9
112.9
112.8
133.2
134.4
135.2
123,1
•124-.1
124 ..5
132.2
132.8
133.3
98.9
99.3
97.1
117.3
117.3
118.2
106.7
108.3
108.0
104.9
105.3
105.8
111.4
111.8
112.8
July
August
September
141.7
145.2
147.1
112.9
115.3
116.4
135.8
138.1
139.6
125.0
127,1
128.2
133.6
134.6
136.3
98.6
100.3
100.5
117.6
118.5
120.8
106.1
. 109.4
110.5
106.7
108.1
109.0
111.2
118.3
115.4
October
November
December
1973
January
February
March
148.8
151.3
153-5
117.3
118.8
120.1
142.0
144. 2
145.6
130.7
132.6
133.3
138.4
140.9
143.0
lpl.5
1D1.2
100.4
121.3
120.8
121.8
110.8
111.6
113.0
109.9
112.1
114.5
117.5
121.9
122.4
155.9
158.8
161.4
121.5
123.3
124.8
147.6
149.4
150.9
134.9
136.1
136.5
145.6
149.2
152.0
102.2
102.5
103.1
121.2
121.6
E>122.6
114.8
116.6
118.4
115.6
116.3
118.5
124.2
125.9
1)130. 8
159.6
162.7
164.1
123.0
125.0
125.6
151.8
153.1
154.5
136.7
137.2
137.6
155.6
158.3
rl62.6
E> 103.1
102.9
102.1
120.8
120.9
122.4
118.4
120.9
123.9
118.1
119.0
119.1
121.7
125.6
r!23.8
126.1
165.4
rl66.9 [H>rl26.8
r!24.6
rl64.8
156.4
157.1
158.2
139.7
138.5
139.7
rl67.1
rl70.8
r-173.0
1(1)1.3
101.8
102.3
121.1
rl20.4
rl!8.8
122.8
126.7
r-125.0
118.9
[H>rl21.0
119.1
rl25.7
120.0
rllO.O
125.5
125.4
160.9
H>3161.5
141.5
H>3141.!>
1-175.2
|H>pl75.2
"%?
rll8.2
P117.5
[H>rl27.0
P126.9
r!20.2
p!20.7
p!09.0
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
.. . .
r^ 3166'5
E> 167.1
2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by ED; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk {*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
3
Ejtcludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available.
3
Secludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.
BCD
DECEMBER 1973
83
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual
c. First
anticipations as
percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
412. Manufacturers' inventories,
total book value
414. Condition
of manufacturers'
inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent)
416. Adequacy
of mfrs.' capacity: percent
considered inadequato less percent considered
excessive
(Percent)
436. Index of
ccnsumor
sentiment ®
(First quarter
1966^100)
1971
First quarter .,
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter
79.32
81.61
80.75
83.18
101.6
100.9
102.0
101.0
102.6
101.1
102.6
86.79
87.12
87.67
91.94
100.9
104.1
103.1
100.5
100.4
102.3
102.3
96.19
97.76
100.90
ral04-94
100.6
100.8
101.0
100.5
102.4
100.9
99.1
163.0
167.3
168.6
172.4
101.8
102.0
102.1
102.4
19
20
18
16
26
21
20
19
78.2
81.6
82.4
82.2
178.X
183.5
189.2
199.5
103.0
104.3
106.2
107.7
12
10
11
10
24
26
31
35
B7.5
S9-3
94.0
90.8
207.4
213.4
219.1
ra219.6
110.2
113.0
116.1
raH8.9
11
12
45
80.8
76.0
71.8
75.7
a207.4
aH0.2
1972
First quarter ,.
Second quarter
Thiid quarter..
Fourth quarter
99.9
1973
First quarter ,.
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
9
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter
a!08.l6
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
end
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporting-©
a. No change
in income
(Percent)
b. Higher
income
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new curs
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households ®
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
b.Increase
less decrease
(Percent)
c. Decrease
in income
a. Actual
(quarterly)
2-quartpr moving average
b. Actual
e. Anticipated
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
{Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
d. Anticipated
as percent of
actual
(Percent)
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
50.3
49.8
48.5
50.8
35.0
35.1
37.6
34.9
U.5
12.5
13.6
20.1
19.9
18.2
16.7
13.8
12.9
10.9
9.4
6.3
7.0
7.3
7.3
7.4
8.3
8.1
8.8
6.9
7.8
8.2
8.4
7.7
8.0
7.6
7.6
112
103
93
90
51.4
51.0
53.6
46.3
35.2
35.7
34.3
40.8
12.7
12.5
10.9
12.0
17.2
19.9
17.0
15.7
10.5
12.4
10.2
9.0
6.7
7.5
6.8
6.7
8.3
8.9
8.7
8.1
8.5
8.6
8.8
8.4
8.4
8.0
8.6
8.6
99
93
98
102
45.9
46.8
(NA)
41.6
40.8
(NA)
11.8
11.7
(NA)
15.9
16.1
19.9
20.1
9.7
9.4
13.5
14.0
6.2
6.7
6.4
6.1
9.5
(NA)
8.8
(NA)
(NA)
105
(NA)
17.1
16.6
10.7
10.3
6.4
6.3
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not refiect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graph;; of these series are shown on pages 43,44, and 45.
84
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries
D440. New orders,
manufacturing1 <g)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1 ®
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade1 ©
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade 1 ®
a. Actual
expenditures
b. Second
anticipations
c. First
anticipations
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
{1-Qspan)
(1-Qspan)
(1-Qspan)
(4-Q span)
{4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
50.0
61.1
44-4
75.0
33.3
58.3
47.2
72.2
41.7
58.3
63.9
50.0
68
70
70
74
76
78
•35
,31
63
64
66
70
71
74
80
78
70
72
74
76
78
80
86
84
48
52
53
55
55
58
58
56
44-4
50.0
55.6
83.3
77.8
63.9
88.9
75.0
75.0
44.4
47.2
50.0
82
84
86
84
132
86
88
88
74
76
79
80
76
82
84
83
82
82
85
86
83
88
90
88
56
58
62
60
58
60
61
60
83.3
61.1
83.3
77.8
77.8
72.2
75.0
86.1
63.9
61.1
72.2
88
90
88
90
6S8
€17
78
79
76
82
85
84
80
86
89
86
88
90
90
88
63
62
60
60
63
62
60
1972
First quarter „ .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
75.0
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
61
86
80
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1 ®
Anticipated
Actual
Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
and trade1 @
Actual
Anticipated
D462. Manufacturing
1
©
Anticipated
Actual
D464. Wholesale trade1 ©
Anticipated
Actual
D466. Retail trade 1 ®
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
{4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
{4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
{4-Q span)
62
62
62
60
60
62
65
65
80
80
71
72
78
78
78
78
74
76
68
70
76
76
75
75
85
86
73
74
80
82
82
82
86
84
73
74
80
80
80
80
64
66
72
71
61
66
66
66
74
76
76
78
68
74
75
72
70
72
72
74
68
72
72
70
80
81
82
80
70
78
80
74
73
78
79
81
67
74
74
74
73
76
75
69
72
72
70
86
86
90
76
82
85
83
82
84
86
73
80
83
82
90
89
92
80
86
88
84
90
87
93
76
85
88
83
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
70
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
87
86
87
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the toick of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.
KCII
DECEMBER
1973
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q FOREIGN TRADE
Ysar
and
month
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 5 12)
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil. do!.)
(Mil.dol.)
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles
and parts
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
{Mil.dol.)
(1957-59=100)
512. General imports, total
(Mil, do!.)
1971
January
February
March
+130
+160
3,601
3,694
3,790
1,518
1,472
1,469
236
225
234
3,599
3,564
3,629
April
May
June
-143
-161
-365
3,631
3,746
3,672
1,394
1,242
1,503
244
237
246
3,774
3,908
4,037
July . . „
August . . „
September
-259
-247
+308
3,573
3,666
4,487
1,298
1,450
1,578
239
256
244
3,832
3,913
4,179
October
November .
December
-800
-260
-288
2,669
3 196
3 881
1,475
1 281
1,766
248
262
284
3,469
3,456
4,169
January
February
March
-361
-649
-647
4,074
3,824
3,868
1,427
1,372
1,554
290
296
317
4,436
4,473
4,5X5
April
May
June
-596
-604
3,820
3,882
1 971
1,337
1,340
2,085
339
327
343
4,417
4,486
4,468
July
August . . „
September
-/91
L 07A
/ 1 oA
L 176
1 706
2 036
1 9A7
368
416
378
4, 565
4,726
4,612
T
yne
+2
„
1972
-A97
October „ .
November
December
con
-p^u
/3£
/ 01
/ ceji
4,55C5
1 702
2 OCA
389
362
L 716
5.148
% 002
-304
-476
4,977
*> 06<>
2,304
2 248
383
5,201
*» tJAl
_eq
*\ 3fto
408
9 J
QO7
u
**,
'
J-\G
5,432
2,111
435
—4*i-L
£.rj£
-o/5
Iff
-an £
4 ,J?4,O
i 77-3
ft^^
1973
January
February
March
April
May .
June
July
August
September
October
November
December . ,
+196
5,487
1 601
e 5Q1
3,^7A
778
2,258
2 109
+106
-17
+873
5 868
6 004
6,448
2 228
;9A
2 861
2,104
454
r483
^ 7&2
6,OP1
5,575
+527
6,432
(NA)
n/QQ
e qn/
-158
-16
(NA)
*5
rjO 633
fMi^
A/7
/^A
5j76l
5,794
(NA)
?\ M
A^
MA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources; are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series art, shown on page 48.
86
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance
on goods and
services
515. Balance
on goods, services,
and remittances
{Mil.dol.)
517. Balance
on current
account
{Mil. col.)
(Mil.dol.)
Net
liquidity balance
519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital
521.
(Mil.dol.)
522. Official
reserve transactions balance
530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners1®
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1970
First quarter ..,
Second quarter ,
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter
907
971
1,047
704
555
591
666
336
138
189
222
-135
-1,2)LO
-601
-356
-868
-1,291
-856
-802
-906
-2,801
-1,992
-1,886
-3,164
42,970
43,375
44,201
43,291
954
131
280
-560
589
-243
-129
-965
151
-728
-678
-1,538
-1,3*6
-2,994
-3,294
-1,881
-2,672
-5,698
-9,448
-4,151
-5,630
-6,345
-11,882
-5,900
45,484
51,408
60,761
64,166
-1,374
-1,426
-939
-870
-1,765
-1,801
-1,312
-1,299
-2,343
-2,364
-1,893
-'-,751
-3,775
-1,8^5
-2,652
-1,556
-3,188
-2,307
-4,531
-3,851
-3,476
-851
-4,524
-1,484
66,925
69,880
75,498
78,718
150
r674
-247
r285
pl,726
-592
r-367
p-1,217
r-944
r-609
p2,539
r-6,657
r-1,588
rpl,418
-10,499
r335
rp2,108
85,516
r86,375
p87,157
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJ0R COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1®
(Mil.dol.)
534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets2 ®
{Mil.dol.)
535. Allocations to the
U.S. of
Special
Drawing Rights
(Mil.dol.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Goods and services
252. Exports
(Mil.dol.)
253. Imports
{Mil.dol.)
Merchandise, adjusted 3
Income on investment, military
transactions, other serv., total
536. Exports
537. Imports
540. Exports
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dot.)
541.
Imports
(Mil.dol.)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
19,404
20,451
22,262
24,396
17,350
16,328
15,527
14,487
217
217
217
216
15,376
15,768
15,975
15,803
14,469
14,797
14,928
15,099
10,239
10,564
10,704
10,457
9,727
9,831
9,961
10,269
5,137
5,204
5,271
5,346
4,742
4,966
4,967
4,830
28,960
34,584
45,915
51,209
14,342
13,504
12,131
12,167
180
179
179
179
16,487
16,781
17,282
15,739
15,533
16,650
17,002
16,299
10,872
10,791
11,522
9,583
10,743
11,708
11,907
11,108
5,615
5,990
5,760
6,156
4,790
4,942
5,095
5,191
53 ,.806
54,604
60,075
61,520
12,270
13,339
13,217
13,151
178
178
177
177
17,587
17,463
18,491
19,921
18,961
18,889
19,430
20,791
11,655
11 ,'539
12,362
13,213
13,475
13,313
13,935
14,958
5,932
5,924
6,129
6,708
5,486
5,576
5,495
5,833
71,331
r70,681
p69,775
12,931
12,914
12,927
22,613.
r24,376
p26,199
22,461
r23,702
p24,051
15,320
rl6,778
rp!8,153
16,280
r!7,022
rp!7,439
7,291
r7,.598
p8,046
6,181
r6,680
p6,6l2
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted sefies are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49, 50, and 51.
3
Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
Reserve position at end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
IICII
DECEMBER 1973
87
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
RM BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Ytiar
and
quarter
Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Income on investments
542. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil. del.)
Transportation and other services
Military transactions
Travel
543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
544, Receipts
from foreign travelers in the U.S.
(Mil, dot.)
545. Payments
by U.S. travelers
abroad
(Mil.dol.)
546. Sales under
military contracts
(Mil.dol.)
547. Military
expenditures
abroad ®
(Mil.dol.)
548. Receipts
from
(Mil.dol.)
549, Payments
for
{Mil.dol.)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarts
2,936
2,779
2,863
2,850
1,344
1,322
1,284
1,217
570
575
591
594
935
1,001
1,021
1,012
268
435
347
429
1,180
1,259
1,210
1,203
1,363
1,415
1,470
1,473
1,283
1,364
1,452
1,398
2,989
3,315
3,038
3,557
1,160
1,135
1,293
1,340
594
590
623
657
1,048
1,061
1,056
1,113
498
507
489
419
1,175
1,214
1,204
1,237
1,534
1,578
1,610
1,523
1,407
1,532
1,542
1,501
3,314
3,270
3,476
3,866
1,423
1,479
1,526
1,634
652
672
680
702
1,166
1,214
1,181
1,295
328
288
262
287
1,222
1,242
1,108
1,151
1,638
1,694
1,711
1,853
1,675
1,641
1,680
1,753
4,158
r4,311
p4,636
1,849
r2,200
820
787
p797
1,289
rl,399
343
r455
$534
1,168
rl,185
1,970
r2,045
P2,079
ri,896
pl,936
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter.,
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1,875
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
{Mil.dol.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil. do!.)
564. Foreign purchases
of U.S. securities
(Mil.dol.)
565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
(Mil.doi.)
570, Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
575. Ban <ing and other
capital transactions, net
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
491
104
245
190
1,279
1,233
886
1,014
304
374
720
792
210
-93
488
337
-1,199
-335
-951
-1,196
-354
-20
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
124
1
-425
184
1,255
1,343
1,450
895
559
196
606
908
356
377
305
-71
-1,212
-1,210
-1,294
-1,016
-744
-1,891
-361
183
178
160
1,302
183
1,148
r771
1,058
956
553
1,768
437
346
-209
40
-729
-802
-990
-1,371
-1,217
440
-991
-1,332
273
r534
p720
2,025
r946
p228
1,745
r496
pl,159
-51
r!26
p204
r-896
r-581
p-1,501
r-2,646
r-602
pl93
9
29
-990
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", riot available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53,
DECEMBER 1973
KCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 1 ACTIVITIES
Defense Indicators
Receipts and Expenditures
i
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+} or
deficit (-}, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
264. National
602. Federal
dsferse purexpenditures,
national income chases
and product
accounts
{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
(Mil.dol.)
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
647. New orders, defense
products industries
648. New orders, defense
products
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
;
1971
January
February
March
-17 ! 6
194! 8
212! 4
72!3
6,706
6,767
6,763
2,038
2,010
1,528
3.85
3.25
3,28
1.71
1.79
1.51
2,508
2,619
3,398
April
May
June
-23-5
197.7
22l! 2
71.3
6,896
6,607
6,036
1,686
1,457
1,340
3.50
3.23
3.63
1.53
1.36
1.40
2,751
2,112
2,367
July
August
September
-23! 2
199! 4
222.6
76! 3
7,735
6,819
5,822
2,577
1,672
1,127
4.25
3.63
3.02
1.90
1.76
1.59
3,082
3,078
2,769
October
November
December
-24." 5
203 '.5
228.' 6
72 M
7,183
6,749
7,378
2,001
1,700
. 2,096
3.25
3.95
3.69
1.75
1.81
1.58
2,392
3,209
3,016
-13! 8
222.9
236! 6
76!li
7,488
7,543
7,182
2,634
1,994
1,817
3.79
3.45
3.48
2.34
1.43
1.58
3,531
2,971
3,233 .
-19! o
225^4
244-4
76*. 6
6,790
6,824
6,790
1,518
1,328
1,597
3.50
(NA)
1.76
1.49
2.82
2,866
2,848
3,126
July
August
September
229.6
237.0
7X9
7,336
8,014
6,424
' 2,213
2,184
1,068
1.12
-7.4
1.63
1.80
3,093
2,673
2,704
October
November
December
-23.4
236.' 9
260.3
72.4
6,991
7,281
6,211
1,610
1,680
1,240
1.44
1.42
1.82
2,840
3,682
2,459
-5*6
253! 6
258*.6
74*. 3
7,004
7,705
7.4L8
1,766
2,042
1,787
1.76
1.72
1.89
2,824
2,879
3,185
262.4
262.4
» ••
74.2
6,625
7,079
6,701
1,316
1,720
1,587
1.95
1.85
2.18
2,469
3,237
2,861
74.2
7,581
7,706
5,830
1,563
1,800
820
1.20
1.86
1.56
2,129
3,313
3,203
7,708
1,951
(NA)
rl.89
pl.79
(NA)
(NA)
. ...
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
....
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
0.0
....
July
August
September
r4.0
October
November .........
December .........
r269.*5
»••
265.6
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back o1 the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; 'V, anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
DECEMBER 1973
89
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS
Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product
Year
; ; nd
month
211. Index
(1958-100)
1971
January . „
February ,
March
(Ann, rate,
percent)
136 3
July
August
September
13?!6
October
November .
December
1972
January
February . .
March
138 il
139 !5
April
May . .
June , , «,
140*.4
July
August . .
September
14ll4
October
November
December ... ,
1973
January
February .....
March
142.9
148.1
July ..... .
August . „
September
i5o!e
*
781. Index®
78 1c. Change
over 1 -month
spans1
(1967-100)
JPercent)
781c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
783. Commodities less
food
7114. Services @
(1B67-1QO)
{19B7-1QO)
119.2
119.4
119.8
0.2
0.2
0.3
3.6
3.9
3.8
115.7
116.1
117.1
115.5
115.5
115.7
136.3
126.6
126.6
5-1
120.2
120.8
121.5
0,3
0.5
0.4
3.8
4.2
3.9
117.7
118.2
118.8
115.9
116.5
116.9
126,8
127.5
128.2
3.7
121.8
122.1
122.2
0.2
0,4
0.1
3.7
3.1
2.9
119.0
119.3
119.0
117.1
117.5
117.4
128.8
139.3
129.8
1.5
122.4
122.6
123.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
2.9
3.1
3.1
119.3
119.8
120.5
117.5
117.6
117.7
129.9
130.3
130.7
4.1
123.2
123.3
124.0
0.2
0-5
0.1
3.1
3.3
2.9
120.5
122.4
122.4
118.1
118.2
11S.6
131.5
131.8
132.1
2.5
124.3
124.7
125.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
3.2
2.8
3.4
122.3
122.3
122.5
118.6
119.1
119.2
132*4
132.7
133.1
3.1
125.5
125.7
126.2
0,4
0.3
0.4
3.8
3.7
3.9
123.3
123.9
124.8
119.5
119.9
120.3
133.5
133.8
134.1
4.1
126.6
126.9
127.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
4-1
5.0
5.9
125.5
126.4
126.3
120.3
120.5
120.7
134-6
134.9
135.4
7.0
127.7
128.6
129.8
0.5
0.7
0.9
6.6
7.2
8.0
128.9
131.4
134.5
120.9
121.3
121.9
135.7
136.2
136.6
7.9
130.7
131.5
132.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
7.4
10.0
8.8
136.4
137.9
139.2
122.4
122.9
123.5
137.1
137.6
138.1
7.6
132.7
135.1
135.5
0.2
1.9
0.3
9.2
9.7
139.9
U8.5
148.3
123,6
124.2
124.3
138.4
139.3
140.6
136.6
137.6
0.8
0.8
U9.1
151.2
124.9
125.8
142.2
143.0
U5.3
Aprs)
May
June
782. Food
All items
5.4
134.' 6
April
May
Juris
October
November
December
21 1c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans'
Consumer price indexes
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
Percent changes are centered within the spang): 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changeo ore placed
on 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
90
DECEMBER 1973
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q] PRICE MOVEMENtS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month
750. AH
commodities©
58. Manufactured
goods®
751. Processed
foods and fseds
752. Farm
products
Industrial commodities
55, Index®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
55c. Change
over 1 -month
spans1
55c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Percent)
1971
January
February
March
111.8
112.8
113-0
111.8
112.4
112.7
lll.V
112.7
113.6
109.1
112.3
111.7
112.2
112.5
112.8
0.3
0.1
0.3
3.2
3.7
3-6
April
May
June
113.3
113.8
1H. 3
113.0
113.5
113.8
113.8
114-5
114.4
113.0
112.6
114.2
113.3
113.7
113.9
0.4
0.5
0.3
4.4
5.2
4.6
July
August
September
114.6
114-9
114.5
114.5
1U.9
114.7
114.5
:_14.9
U4.6
111.3
113.9
112.0
n^-5
115.1
115.0
0.6
0.5
0.0
3.6
2.8
2.8
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
114.4
114-5
115.4
114.5
1L4.5
115.1
115.0
115.6
116.8
114.2
114-8
116.3
115.0
114.9
115.3
-0.1
0.1
0.3
2.2
2.0
2.6
116.3
117.3
117.4
115.7
116.5
116.7
117.1
118.1
118.4
117.9
118.8
118.3
115.9
116.5
116.8
0.3
0.4
0.3
3-4
4-0
4-2
April
May
June
117.5
118.2
118.8
116.9
117.4
117.8
118.1
118.5
119.1
119.2
120.9
121.8
117.3
117.6
117.9
0.4
0.3
0.4
4.0
3.9
3.9
July
August
September
119.7
119.9
120.2
118.3
118.5
118.8
119.9
120.5
121.9
125.5
128.7
130.7
118.1
118.5
118.7
0.2
0.3
0.3
3.2
3.3
2.9
October
November
December
1973
January
February
March
120.0
120.7
122.9
118.8
119.2
120.7
1?.2.8
124.5
130.4
128.6
132.4
137.8
118.8
119.1
119.4
0.1
0.4
0.2
3.1
4-3
6.3
124.5
126.9
129.7
121.6
123.6
125.7
133.3
136.2
141.1
144.3
148.5
159.0
120.0
121.3
122.7
0.3
1.0
1.2
9.0
10.7
12.5
130.7
133-5
136.7
134.9
142.7
140.2
126.7
128.7
130.9
129.8
034.0
132.5
140.2
1U.9
151.2
144- 6
165.5
156.5
160.8
168.5
179.1
169.9
21A.2
203.7
124.4
125-8
126.9
126.9
127.4
128.1
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.1
O.A
0.7
12.0
10.8
9.6
9.2
13.5
139.5
U1.8
133.0
135.8
154-3
153.6
193,0
189.1
129.6
133.5
1.1
3.2
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back oi the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
Percent changes.are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes
are placed on the 4th month.
KCII
DECEMBER 1973
91
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1
Year
and
month
Real earnings
Current dollar earnings
740. Index
(1967-100)
740c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
740c. Change 741. Index
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
I (1967-100)
741c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
741c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
859. Real
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
spendable
private nonfarm economy
avg. wkly.
earnings
Current dollar compensation
nonagri. prod,
ornonsupv.
745. Index
74So. Changs 740c. Change
workers
over 1-quart@r ovor 4-quarter
spans2
spans2
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
S
percent)
percent)
(196? 10Q)
(1967dol.)
1971
January
Fobruary
March
126.0
126.7
127.2
1.0
0.6
0.4
7.4
7.8
7.6
105.5
106.0
106.2
0.7
0.5
0.2
3.6
3.7
3.7
91.49
91.82
92.08
128.*3
April
May
June
128.0
128.9
129.5
0.6
0.7
0.5
6.6
6.8
6.6
106.5
106.7
106.7
0.3
0.2
0.0
2.7
2.5
2.6
92.30
92.56
92.40
130." 8
July
Auqust
September
130.1
130.9
131.4
0.5
0.6
0.4
5.9
4.5
6.3
106.9
107.3
107.5
0.2
0.4
0.2
2.1
1.4
3.3
92.44
92.58
92.72
132.9
October
November
December
131.7
131.8
133.5
0.2
0.1
1.3
6.9
6.0
6.5
107.6
107.5
108.5
0.1
-0.1
3.9
2.8
3.3
93.02
93.06
93.70
134.5
January
February ,
March . . „
134.5
134.8
135.6
0.7
0.2
0.6
7.6
7.6
5.6
109.0
108.8
109.3
-0.2
4.3
4.1
2.7
95.09
95-32
95.71
137.6
April
May
June
136.6
136.7
137.2
0.7
0.1
0.4
5.3
5.5
5.6
109.9
109.7
109.9
-0.2
0.2
2.0
2.6
2.0
96.70
95.95
96.07
139.4
July
August
September
138.0
138.5
139.3
0.6
0.4
0.6
5.7
5.9
6.9
110.1
110.2
110.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
1.8
2.1
2.9
96.39
96.36
96.89
141 .'6
October
November
December
140.4
140.7
141.9
0.8
0.2
0.9
6.4
5.9
5.8
110.9
110.8
111.5
0.5
-0.1
2.2
0.9
0.6
-0.1
97.49
96.98
96.78
H3.3
Janufiiry „ ....
February
March
142.3
142.5
143.3
0.3
0.1
0.6
5.8
5.8
5.9
111.3
110.7
110.4
-0.2
-0.5
-0.3
-0.7
-1.3
-1.9
95.81
96.08
95.67
1473
April
May
June
144-4
144.7
146.0
0.8
0.2
0.9
6.6
7.3
-0.4
-0.8
-2.5
149.' 6
r8.0
110.5
110.1
110.4
H6.9
0.6
0.5
r7.5
P7.6
0.9
7.6
6.'s
7.9
6.'?
6.8
7.3
4/7
6J6
1972
0.5
0.5
0.5
9. a
6.5
5. a
6.9
6.4
?!a
6.S
7.3
1973
July.
August
September
October
Novembsr
Decembsir
147.6
r!49.0
rO.9
rl49.7
plSO.l
pQ.3
0.5
0.1
0.3
r-0.7
95.96
95.61
95.29
0.5
r-1.6
P-1.9
94.H
110.9
109.3
rllO.O
-1.4
rO.6
rl09.6
p!09.0
p-0.5
-0.4
10.8
P?!B
5.S
96.16
p8.3
p!52.6
r95.ll
94.30
P93.78
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
tio not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifte.
2
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes arc placed on the middle
month of the 3d quarter.
92
DECEMBER 1973
KCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
|g WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.
Year
and
month
Real compensation
746. Index
(1967=100)
746c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Negotiated Wcige and benefit
decisions, all industries©
748. First
.year average
changes
749. Average
changes over
lif a of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per man-hour, total
private economy
77p. Index
(1:967=100)
770c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1
770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
(1967=100)
1971
January
February .
March
,. « . . .
.......
April
May
Jun8
, , «...
.
4.2
10.6
3.3
10S.2
July
August
Septsmber
108.9
October
November
December
109.6
8.6
8.5
107.5
2.*4
107.4-
11.5
ile
15.0
108.6
4^6
107! 6
3^6
108 !l
Z!i
109!i
3-7
109." 8
4^2
iii3
4-7
112 !9
2^9
114.2
2.5
115.6
4.7
8.7
109.3
12.7
2.4
106 !l
2.0
8.2
3.'l
2.6
3.4
3.2
10.6
110.1
3.*3
1972
January
February
March
9.7
6.1
110.2
2.1
8.2
110.*7
3.3
...
April
May
June
.
...
.
8.1
2.0
111.8
3.4
...
July
August
September
8.7
2.7
...
7.3
3.1
1130
7.3
2.8
.
112.5
3-0
112.5
October
November
December
6.5
7.3
...
5.2
6.6
114.8
1*.8
113.3
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
.
...
4.1
P5.5
115.9
pO.9
-2.8
F7.6
-0.7
p6.6
p-0.8
p7.8
rl.4
p6.4
rll6*.i
pl!3.6
.
...
115 li
115.8
113.8
July
August
September
October
November
December
P7.3
•4-7
11^,. 6
•rll5.8
[
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasona movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Comptete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
7
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4—quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
ICO
DECEMBER 1973
93
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS1
Unemployment rates
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
841. Total
(Thous.)
842, Employed
{Thous.)
843, Unemployed
844. Males
20 years and
over
(Thous.)
(Percent)
845. Females
20 years and
over
(Percent)
846. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
846, Negro
and other races
847. White
(Percent)
(Percent)
1971
January
February
Matrch
83,693
S3, 341
33,413
78,679
78,441
78,417
5,014
4,900
4,996
4.4
4.3
4.3
5-7
5.7
5.9
17.3
16.6
17.1
5.5
5.4
5.5
9.7
9.7
9.5
Apirtt „
May . .
June ,
83,712
83,964
83,498
78,736
78,906
78,653
4,976
5,058
4,845
4.3
4.4
4.3
5.9
5.8
5.7
16.6
17.4
16.5
5.5
5.5
5-i
9.6
10.1
9.3
July
August
September
84,039
84,371
84,503
79,095
79,264
79,476
4,944
5,107
5,027
4.3
4.5
4.4
5.6
5.8
5.7
17.1
16.9
16.7
5.3
5.6
5.4
10.0
9.9
10.2
October
November
December .
84,696
85,078
85,145
79,738
79,987
80,040
4,958
5,091
5,105
4.3
4-4
4.4
5.6
5.7
5.7
16.9
16.9
17.1
5.3
5.5
5.4
10.2
9.6
10.5
January
Februsntv
March
85,644
85,518
86,264
80,579
80,594
81,216
5,065
4,924
5,048
4.2
4-1
4.2
5.6
5.1
5.5
17.5
18.5
17.4
5.3
5.2
5.3
10.9
10.6
10.4
April
May
June
86,184
86,431
36,554
81,209
81,458
81,752
4,975
4,973
4,802
4.2
4.1
4.0
5.4
5.7
5.6
16.7
15.7
14-9
5.3
5. ?.
5.1
9.3
10.3
9.2
July
August
September
86,597
86,941
87,066
81,782
82,061
82,256
4,815
4,880
4,810
3.9
3-9
3.8
5.7
5.5
5.4
15.5
16.7
16.2
5.0
5.1
5.0
10.0
9.7
10.0
October
November
December
87,236
87,023
87,267
82,397
82,525
82,780
4,839
4,498
4,487
3.9
3-5
3.4
5.5
5.0
5.1
15.4
15.6
15.7
5.0
4.6
4.6
10.0
10.1
9.6
January
Februairy
March
86,921
67,569
SS ? 268
82,555
83,127
83,889
4,366
4,442
4,379
3.3
3.4
3.4
5.3
4.9
4.9
14.3
15.8
14.2
4.6
4.6
4-4
8.9
9.0
9.0
April
May
June .
88,350
88,405
88,932
S3, 917
S4,024
84,674
4,433
4,381
4,258
3.4
3.4
3.2
4.7
4.6
4.9
15.4
15.4
13.3
4- r 5
4.4
4.3
9.1
9.4
8.5
July
August
September
88,810
88,651
89,403
84,614
afc,04
85,1.^7
4,196
4,217
4,276
3.0
3.1
3.1
4.9
4.9
4.8
14.4
14.3
U.4
4.1
4.2
4.2
9.3
8.7
9.4
•October
November .
December
89,764
89,952
85,695
85,688
4,069
4,264
2.9
3.0
4.4
4.7
13.9
14.6
4.;i
4.2
8.3
9.1
...
1972
1973
.
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "a", estimated, "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.
1
Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to January 1972, the
I960 Census IB uged as the benchmark.
94
DECEMBER 1973
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
19 ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
207.
Gross national product in constant (UI58) dollars
Year
and
quarter
Gap (potentialless actual)
206. Potential level
205. Actual value
(Ann. rtete, oil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, fail, del.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
...
721.2
722.1
727.2
719.3
746.4
754.3
762.3
770.4
+25.2
+32.2
+35.1
+51.1
735.1
740.4
746.9
759.0
778.5
786.7
795.1
803 . 5
+43.4
+46.3
+48.2
+44.5
768.0
785.6
796.7
812.3
812.0
820.6
829.3
838.0
+44.0
+35.0
+32.6
+25.7
829.3
834.3
841-3
847.0
856.0
865.1
+17.7
+21.7
+23.8
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.
Special Note on Potential GNP
The following note has been provided by the Council of Economic
Advisers regarding potential GNP.
The idea of potential GNP has had a long history. Its measurement by the
Council of Economic Advisers was started in the Economic Report of the
Council in 1962. Since that time it has been used as a standard with which to
evaluate the past and future behavior of the economy.
Potential GNP purports to measure what the economy would produce if
all of its resources were fully utilized given the technology and institutional
arrangements that have existed at the time. "Fully utilized" has never meant
the kind of utilization that would prevail, say, under wartime conditions but
rather the utilization that could be expected under conditions of reasonable
price stability. This has always been less than complete utilization. Under
ordinary circumstances some unemployment is present because some
workers are in the process of changing jobs; similarly, some old plants are
idle because market conditions do not permit them to operate profitably. In
the past this degree of utilization has been reflected in an overall
unemployment rate of 4 percent. The rate of inflation associated with that
degree of unemployment has typically not been specified. Futhermore,
notions of what constitutes reasonable price stability can vary over time.
Potential GNP is not something ordinarily observable. In practice, the
Council in 1962 made the judgment that the economy was operating at 100
KCII
DECEMBER 1973
percent of potenti0l in mid-1955. Since that time potential GNP has been
estimated to grow at differing annual rates, as follows: 3.5 percent from the
first quarler of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 1962, 3.75 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1962 to the fourth quarter of 1965, 4 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1969, and 4.3 percent from
the fourth quarter of 1969 to the third quarter of 1973. These rates of
growth in potential GNP have reflected the differing rates of growth in the
potential Babor force, in potential annual hours of work and in output per
manhour at potential. Specifically, since the fourth quarter of 1969 this has
reflected a 1.8 percent rise in the labor force, a 0.2 percent decline in annual
hours of wprk and a 2.7 percent rise in output per manhour per year.
Although potential is presented in the chart on page 61 and the table
above as a point estimate each quarter, it is clearly subject to a margin of
error and consequently, as with any measure of capacity, should be used
with considerable caution. There are uncertainties regarding both the growth
and the level of potential. Even though it is estimated that potential grew at
an annual rate of 4.3 percent in recent years, the growth of the actual labor
force, annual hours and output per manhour have differed considerably from
those specifically assumed for potential growth. And clearly there is
uncertainty about how fast the economy's potential will grow in the future.
Possibly m^re important is the uncertainty regarding the level of potential
sand thus thfc size of the gap between actual and potential.
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
|3 ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to capacity,
manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories to sales,
manufacturing
and trade
(Percent)
{Ratio}
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to
shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
industries
(Ratio)
853. Ratio,
production of
business equipment
to consumer goods
(1967-100)
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
(Ratio)
860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed1
(Ratio)
8B7. Vacancy rate
in total rental
housing©
(Percent)
1971
January . „
February
March
7§'.6
1.64
1.63
1.61
2.91
2.88
2.80
84.2
85.3
84.1
o.osi
0.463
0.474
0.471
s'J
April
May
Juno „
75.6
1.61
1.60
1.59
2.79
2.69
2.59
83-3
82.4
82.3
0.085
0.473
0.471
0.516
5.3
July
August
September .
74*. 7
1.61
1.59
1.60
2.63
2.72
2.69
83.5
84.1
84.1
0.080
0.512
0.496
Q.4BS
5.*6
74.6
1.60
1.57
1.58
2.66
2.63
2.59
84.2
83.0
83.1
0.076
0.498
0.491
0.496
'5.6
January
February
March
75.*6
1.56
1.56
1.54
2.57
2.58
2.55
83.0
83-5
84.7
0.068
0.523
0.53S
0.548
s'.3
April
May
June
77.9
1.53
1.52
1.53
2.52
2.52
2.62
83.9
84.8
85.3
0.058
0.569
0.575
0.601
5^5
July
August
September
79.4
1.53
1.49
1.49
2.61
2.56
2.60
85-6
86.2
87.5
0.057
0.643
0.653
0.637
5.' s
October .
November
December
81.5
1.47
1.46
1.45
2.55
2.53
2.59
87.9
89.0
89.6
0.066
0.671
0.721
0. 776
5*. 6
January
February
March
p82.8
1.43
1.43
1.41
2.57
2.58
2.66
90.1
90.8
90.7
0.059
0.832
0.798
0.823
5.7
April
May
June
P83.3
1.42
1.42
1.44
2.70
2.75
2.85
91.4
92.0
92.9
0.059
0.813
0.829
0.860
i'a
•.*
rpS3'.3
1.41
1.43
1.44
2.84
2.98
3.02
92.6
r95-0
r95.5
0.057
0.930
O.SB9
rO.836
5.*8
pi. 41
(NA)
2.97
(NA)
r94.7
P95-0
October
November
December
1972
1973
July
August
September
'October
November
December
0.892
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not mflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available,
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
'Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for computing the unemployment component of this norios.
Prior to January 1972, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark.
DECEMBER 1973
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
g| DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average work week
of production workers,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)
DM. Newly approved
cap'tal appropriations,
The Conference Board
(17 industries1
1 -month
span
1 -quarter
span
9-month
span
3-qparter
span
D34. Profits,
D19. Index of stock
mfg., FNCB
prices, 500 common stocks
about 1,000
(72 industries) 2 ©
lorporations}
1 -quarter
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
023. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1 -month
span
9-month
span
1971
59
24
58
95.8
87.5
71.5
98.6
95.1
91.0
46.2
61.5
80.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
a
59
59
84.0
41.7
27.8
97.2
77.8
56.9
80.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
69.2
69.2
71.4
71.4
80.0
65
59
59
44-4
23.6
71.5
31.9
43.1
44.4
57.7
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
46.2
60.0
64.3
58.6
77.1
85.7
91.4
47
88
51
18.1
95.8
50.7
59-7
65.3
46.2
34.6
61.5
53.8
80.8
84.6
85.7
85,7
90.5
58.6
54.3
62.9
82.9
94.3
82.9
76
82
62
89.6
70.1
76.4
62.5
59.0
68.1
65.4
73-1
76.9
76.9
76.9
84.6
77.1
51.4
54-3
85.7
88.6
91.4
76
82
64
71.5
21.5
43-1
84.7
67.6
43.7
65.4
76.9
73.1
92.3
84.6
84.6
January
February
March
71.4
31.0
73.8
76.2
83.3
83.3
44.3
61.4
51.4
60.0
62.9
74.3
April
May
June
40.5
76.2
47.6
78.6
59.5
64.3
57.1
55.7
65.7
65.7
54.3
65.7
July
August
September
61.9
26.2
21.4
71.4
83.3
73.8
51.4
57.1
41.4
October
November
December
78.6
83.3
71.4
81.0
88.1
92.9
28.6
88.1
4Q.5
88.1
2.8
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
.
...
...
81.0
83.3
88.1
88.1
69.0
59.5
19.0
50.0
80.0
61.4
94.3
91.4
82.9
50
82
57
...
26.2
85.7
69.0
30.6
76.4
33.8
54.9
54.9
47.9
61.5
65.4
50.0
76.9
61.5
69.2
50.0
52.4
28.6
73.8
69.0
73.8
57.1
62.9
51.4
91.4
91.4
97.1
65
;LOO
59
33.8
90.1
77.5
42.0
36.2
34.8
"61.5
65.4
69.2
76.9
84.6
88.5
January
February
March
19.0
95.2
50.0
57.1
28.6
35.7
67.1
90.0
85.7
88.6
76
64
61.4
74-3
26.8
14.5
19.6
26.5
19.1
25.0
84.6
84.6
76.9
92.3
92.3
92.3
April
May
June
47.6
33.3
26.2
23.8
82.9
91.4
53
64
21.7
14.7
15.4
19.1
17.6
30.9
61.5
80.8
76.9
92.3
92.3
92.3
52
66.2
41.9
88.2
23.9
73.1
65.4
46.2
=
.
July
August
September
.
4.8
October
November
December
...
F ' *
r ••
1973
July
August
September
October
November
December
.
,
...
.
...
r61.9
r73.8
P35.7
61.4
54-3
51.4
r85.7
48.6
48.6
55.7
r!6.7
p69.0
r62.9
P51.4
54.8
31.0
94
^. .'
H'Tl
r85.7
P90.0
P53
92.3
69.2
46.2
69.2
89.0
7.5
3
3
69.2
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on 2d
month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are pla;ed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st"month of the 3d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and inagx D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components
for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not evailable.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
3
Based on 72 components through August 1972, on 71 components through January 1973, on 69 components through April 1973,
on 68 components through October 1973, and on 67 components thereafter. Component data are not shown in table E4 but are
available from the source agency.
3
Average for December 4, 11, and 18.
BCII
DECEMBER 1973
97
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
05. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
1-month
span
9-month
span
041. Number of employees
on nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1 -mo nth
span
:
6-month
span
047. Index of industrial
production {24 industries)
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®
1-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
6-month
span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 typos of stores)
1 -mo nth
span
f)
1971
9-month
span
f)
38.3
61.7
42.6
46.8
61.7
72.3
41.7
36.7
33.3
43.3
55.0
41.7
54-2
50.0
41.7
70.8
70.8
72.9
79.5
75.0
72.7
77.3
81.8
81.8
43.5
65.2
73.9
80.4
87.0
(NA)
48.9
44.7
40.4
57.4
21.3
48.9
70.0
83.3
33.3
43.3
55.0
65.0
79.2
58.3
56.2
62.5
64.6
75.0
68.2
72.7
72.7
90.9
95.5
86.4
73.9
52.2
73.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
57.4
25.5
46.8
42.6
57.4
63.8
50.0
60.0
90.0
65.0
58.3
61.7
52.1
45.8
75.0
62.5
66.7
62.5
86.4
90.9
38.6
86.4
72.7
,77.3
(MO
87. G
39.1
(NA)
(M)
(NA)
57.4
66.0
59.6
70.2
74.5
57.4
58.3
65.0
51.7
78.3
80.0
75.0
58.3
60.4
54.2
70.8
87.5
91 ..7
25.0
45.5
68.2
75,0
77.3
86.4
47.8
78.3
37.0
(NA)
(NA)
91.3
January .... ...
February
March
42.6
46.8
59.6
68.1
63.8
76.6
80.0
71,7
86.7
88.3
90.0
90.0
70.8
70.8
77.1
95.8
95.8
83.3
86.4
90.9
79,5
90.9
95.5
95.5
45-7
71.7
87.0
100.0
91.3
100.0
April
May •
June . . . „
55.3
36.2
53.2
78.7
57.4
70.2
85.0
80.0
78.3
81.7
81.7
85.0
87.5
77.1
75-0
91.7
87.5
95.8
77.3
90.9
79.5
95.5
100.0
100.0
47, &
69.6
37.0
89.1
91.3
95.7
July
August
September
66.0
66.0
46.S
83.0
61.7
80.9
40.0
90.0
85.0
86.7
83.3
86.7
81,3
75.0
87.5
87.5
87.5
$7.5
79.5
75.0
81.8
90.9
90.9
88.6
69.6
76.1
30.4
95.7
69.6
91.3
October
November
December
59.6
81.9
38.3
91.5
93.6
61.7
96.7
86.7
78.3
88.3
93.3
91.7
66.7
75.0
66,7
87.5
91.7
91.7
68.2
84.1
86.4
95.5
95.5
100.0
100,0
28.3
52.2
100.0
100.0
95.7
January
February
March . . ,
67.0
74.5
36.2
68.1
66.0
74.5
73.3
83,3
76.7
88.3
78.3
85.0
79.2
91.7
62.5
83.3
79.2
83.3
95.5
97.7
95.5
100.0
95.5
95.5
84.8
76.1
65.2
100.0
97.8
95.7
April
May . . „
June . . „
53.2
36.2
57.4
38.3
68.1
57.4
66,7
66,7
71.7
81.7
78.3
71,7
50.0
77.1
54.2
79.2
r77.1
79.2
95-5
90.9
84.1
95.5
95.5
95.5
30.4
69,6
56,5
97.8
rlOO.O
rS2.6
July
August
September
63.8
44-7
42.6
59.6
50.0
66.7
r50.0
r68.3
P78.3
70.8
70.8
r64.6
70*5
90.9
95.5
73,9
34,8
r73,9
p78.3
P64.6
October
November
December
46.8
72.3
January
February
March
April
May
Juno
.. „ .
. . .
,
July
August
September
October
November
December . . .
1972
1973
r81.7
p7C.O
r37.5
P56.3
70.8
86.4
77.3
79.5
86,4
r73.9
P47.8
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the2d
month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indox 058 which requires
no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
^Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
s
l)ata beginning with August 1971 are not comparable with earlier data due to a revised sample.
98
DECEMBER 1973
ItCfl
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components.: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1973
Diffusion index components
April
Mijy
July
June
August
September
October1"
November^
D1. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
{Average weekly hours)
o
All manufacturing industries
Percent rising of 21 components
40.9
40.7
40»6
(48)
(33)
(26)
42.0
41.1
40.4
41. 9 o
40.7
+
40.1
o
40*9
42.3
42.2
+
40.7
+
40.5
(55)
(31)
40.8
40.6
(86)
(17)
o
40.6
(69)
Durable goods industries;
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
+
. . .
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
o
+
42.3
42.2
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
+
41.8
42.5
Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
o
+
40.6
43.5
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
+
40.8
39.0
o
+
o
+
a. 9
41-9
+
40.1
42.7
40.5
39.8
a. 5
+
42.1
42.2
40.7
39.7
+
o
o
r42.5
r40.7
39*7
42.4
40.3
39.5
+
o
+
42.7
40.3
39.6
42.0
41.8
+
+
42.2
42.7
41.9
42.6
+
42.2
42.5
41.3
42.4
+
+
r41.5 o
r43.0
U. 5
42.8
+
o
41.7
42,8
r40.4
r41.1 +
40.0
41.6
-
39.9
40.9
40.8
38.6
+
+
40.9
38.9
+
+
40.8
42.0
41 ,,9
+
L1.6
42.6
41.5
42.5
+
40.6
42.1
40.1
41.9
+
+
40.2
42.3
40.1
41.0
+
+
40.7
39-1
40.5
38.9
+
o
40.6
38.9
40.4
38.7
+
+
40.4
35.3 +
40.1
37.?
+
40.2
36.0
+
+
40.4
38.5
+
'40.6 +
37.9 +
40.9
36.0
40. 8
36. Q
o
40.8
35-9
o
40.8
35.7
+
+
r40.9
35.9
40.5
35.8
+
-
40.6
35.6
42.7
37.7
42.4
37.7
+
+
r42.8
38.0
42.6
37.8
+
+
42.8
38.0
42.1
42.1
+
42.0
r42.5
41.9
42.1
+
41.8
42.2
40.5
38.1
+
+
r41.0
38.4
40.9
38.0
+
o
41.2
38.0
o
41.6
42.2
+
40.9
r39.1
Nondurable goods industries:
+
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
+
40.1
36.5
Textile mill products .....
Apparel and other textile products
+
-
41.6
36.1
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
42.8
38.0
o
o
42.8
38.0
42.1
37.a
o
o
a. 9
+
+
42.0 o
42.1 -
42.0
+
+
42.1
42.4
4C.8
37.9
40. 71 +
40.8
£7.8
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
41.9
o
+
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products
41.5
38.2
o
+
a.?
38.1;,
o
o
+
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GpODS INDUSTRIES1
{Mil lions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
+
Percent rising of 35 components
+
.
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
....
+
+
42,449 i- 43,016 (54)
(61)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
.
41,341 +
42>697
o
(49)
(51)
42,689
2
-
42,259 + 44,037 + 44,164
(56)
(49)
+
+
7,042 4,861 -
7,015
4,672
+
6,658
5*008
+
-
7,150
4,903
+
6,325 +
4,982 +
6,411 +
5,710 -
6,544 +
5,696 -
6,719
5,682
+
-
6,'902
5,676
+
6,647 +
5,701 -
6,922 +
5,537 +
+ 10,739 + 11,329 7,567 +
7,599 -
10,980
7,473
-
6,656
4,488
10,503
7,573
10,948
7,340
40.7
40.0
(63)
6,868
5,135
(51)
-
6,750
4,963
7,174 +
5,816 +
7,251
5,884
+ 10,978 + 11,368 4- 11,412
+
7,515 + 7,676 + 7,904
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and {-) = falling. NA = not available,
p - preliminary, r = revised.
'Data are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available fpr publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
DECEMBER
1973
99
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1973
Diffusion indax components
May
April
,
June
July
August
October
September
November
December
D23. INDEX OP INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2
Industrial materials price
index (1967^1 00)
+ 158.2 + 162.9 +
170.1 I-
178,1 + 189.8
186.3
+
r!88.1 + 192.4 +
207, a
(Dollars)
(62)
Percent rising of 13 components . .
Coppsr scrap (Ib }
Lend scrap (Ib )
Stuel scrap (Ion)
Tin (ib.)
Zinctlb.)
Burlap (yd )
+
.
Cotton (Ib.), 12°market average
Print cloth (yd.), overags , , ,
Wool tops{lb }
Hides (Ib)
Rosin ( 100 Ib)
Rubber {Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
(81)
(77)
(73)
(46)
(65)
0.570 +
0.659 t- 0.681 o 0.681 o
0.603 f0.061 +
0.062 t0.064 *>
0.064 >
0.064 o
55.736 52.658 H
4-7.413 +
54*079 *•
47.723 *2.452
1.980 +
2.396 +
2.087 f 2.173 »0.206
0.205 o
0.204 o
0.209
0.205 I0.201 +
0.201
0.196 o 0.196
0.202
0.688 f
0.418 +
0.475 *
0.469 *0.534 +
0.550 *•
0.396
0.377 f 0.481 f
0.382
3.296
3.346 f
2.811 H 3.196 f 3.341 +
0.430
0.378 +
0.326 +
0.342 t0.343
21.756 21.316 ^
21.081 +
20.851 +
21.644 +
0.420
0.370 I0.430
0.309 + 0.312 f
0.204
0.113 + 0.139 + 0.166
0.164 4-
0.681
0.066
54.327
2.396
0.204
0.186
0.833
0.558
3.393
0.372
21.644
0.367
0.157
(46)
(69)
(69)
0.830 - 0.781
+
0.758 l0.082
o
0.066 f
0.073 +
91.291 + 95.745
+ 74.694 f
3.085
+ 2.455 *•
2.583 +
0.256
0.209 +
o
0.204 f
+
0.188 f 0.194 - 0.191
0.787
0.769
0.691 +
0.5© + 0.613
+
0.559 H
3-036
3.166 3.340
0.364
0.356
0.349 -f
20.769 - 20.526
- 21.145 0.360 t
0,389 + 0.512
0.168
O.L42 * 0.160 +
041 . NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
Percent rising of 30 components . .
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products .
Furniture ond fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Eilnctrical EQuip merit
Transportation equipment . .
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Toxtili miil products
Apparel and other textile products
Paper end allied products .
Printing and publishing . .
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products .
Rubbar and plastic products, n.e.e
Leather and leather products
Mminc)
Contract construction . . . .
Transportation and public utilities
Wholssalc trade
Retail trade
Finance, (insurance, real estate .
Service
Federal government
State and local government
+
75,105 +
75,321 +
(67)
(67)
75,526 (72)
75,493 +
75,747 +
(50)
(67)
r75,96l + r ?6, 275 +
(50)
(82)
76,47^'
(70)
101
98 +
97
99
r96 o
99
r96
542 o
+
544
542
541 +
544 o
r544 o
r544 +
+
430
428 +
436
431 +
r434 o
434 o
r434 o
o
550 +
555 o
555 +
557
561 +
554 o
rS54 +
1,066 +
+ 1,033 +
1,044 + 1,052
1,050 +
r 1,082 + r 1,096 •f+
1,113 + 1,123 + 1,126 f 1,127 + 1,129 r 1,123 + rl,132 +
1,356 + 1,366 + 1,380
1,379 + 1,399 rl,398 + n,a3 •*'
+ 1,361 + 1,370 + 1,389 f 1,392
rl,386 + rl,415 +
1,384 +
+ 1,351 + 1,354
1,338 + 1,339 1,348
rl,332 o rl,332
296 +
306 o
306 +
304 +
311 o
311 +
r3U +
o
343 o
343
340
342
341 +
r342
339 +
1,178
1,170
1,160
1,165
1,144 +
1,153 + rl,l69 +
o
63 o
63 +
63 o
60
64
57 +
59 +
o
900 o
900 o
900
902
r902 +
899 +
899 +
+ 1,182
1,140 +
1,174 +
1,175
1,161 rl,l60 o rl,l60
552 +
556 +
557
557 o
561
r558 +
r563 +
661 +
+
663
664
662
r66l o
663
r66l L
596 +
605
+
593 +
603 +
599 f
r6o6 +
r609
117 f
115 +
115 o
118 +
120 o
r!20 o
rl20 +
+
536
531 +
546 +
r538 +
544 +•
547
r342
+
256 o
256 +
257
253 +
254 o
r254
r253 *•
608 o
608 +
629 f
631 *•
633 +
r639 f
634
3,571 +
3,620 +
3,680
3,676 +
r3,700 3,654 *•
3,689 f
+ 4,591 +
4,597 o
4,593 +
4,598 ^ 4,617 +
r4,629 + r4,67Q
4,046 +
4,072 o 4,071 *•
+
4,044 +
4,099 +
r4,lll + r4,137 t+
12,173 +
12,210 12,190 f
12,223 *•
12,253 + rl2,277 + r!2,33S f
+ 4,031 *
4,048 f
4,044 +
4,049 D
4,064 +r4,078 -H r4,089 o
+
12,746 +
12,820 *•
12,776 412,828 4
12,906 f r!2,995 + rl3,035 f
2,628 +
2,641
2,613
2,603
2,599 *r2,6l3 + r2,626 f
+
10,986 +
11,001 f
11,046 11,038 4- rll,043 + rll,048 t
11,007 f
93
545
1,31,
r&>
1,09^
1,13^
l,/*.3.'i
i,a«
1,306
;u.7
339
1,183
63
90,4
1,150
564
664
607
122
040
255
64,0
3,7C8
4/M.7
4,162
12,370
4 S 090
13 » CB7
2 ? 6S!9
U,082
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the montlHo-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: {+) = rising, (o) s unchanged, and H s falling. NA ~ not available.
p = preliminary, r ~ revised.
Average for December 4, 11, and 18.
^Series componento are seasonally adjusted by the Bxireau of Economic Analysis. The industrial materials price :ln3ex is not
seasonally adjusted.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
100
DECEMBER 1973
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1973
Diffusion index components
May
April
September1*
August1*
July
June
October1*
November^
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1967=100)
+
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components2
(50)
Durable manufactures:
Prirnary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated nnetal products
+
+
Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
1 nstru ments
Lumber clay, and glass
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
..
.
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
+
(77)
125.6 1+
126.7
-
(W
(54)
t
126. 5
+
(71)
126.8
126.1
130.3
+
124-5
133-4
+
+
121.5 +
123.8 +
110.0 +
134.7 +
124.0
125.4
111,0
138.9
+
+
+
+
126.1
127.8
112.2
140.2
E
l27|!l
128.0
1121.1
140^8
. .
, ,+
-
13o!Z +
129.1 -
132.6
127. 5
-
136!5
126.6
jh
I
132'3 12514 +
129 '.6 128.4 +
+
-
123.8
141-6
-i+
126.5
144-5
.o
-
126.5 t
143.6 4
127L5 +
143 f 5 +
129.5
144.9
+
+
-
126; i +
127.2
110.0
129.2 ' i
110.0 f
86.6 I
128
-J.
f9 +
112 1+
79 J2 +
129.0
113.6
81.0
+
+
+
129.4
115-4
83.0
+
.o
+
+
+
135."l
113.2
•+
134.6 1
114.8 1
135^3 +
116,0 *
137.0
116.2
-
134.' 8
113.6
+
+
. .. +
147.8 +
126.9 +
165.1 +
150.2
128.5
166.8
+
+
-
150 '.4
129.7 4
163.9 4
129J3
168 .'8
-
151.4
128.2
167.9
+
-
152.7
126.0
163.6
... -
121.3
112.9
+
-
122.4
111.2
-
120.3 4
108.1 4
122 '.4
105-|3
+
+
122.9 +
110.1 -
123.' 5
109.1
99.9
108.3
+
+
100.9
108.4
+
+
108.0 4
109.1 4
109. b
+
109. [5
+
104.0
110.0
+
o
110.0
110.0
+
-
128.5
108.8
o
127.0
108.8
-
121.6
105.2
+
+
I3i! 4
+
113.1 -
136.2
109.5
128.1 133 . 5 +
125.6
133.8
+
+
+
128!9
128.2
105.7
140.9
+
(65)
+
+
125.8
128.9
. ...
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products .
Rubber and plastics products
Mining:
Coal
0 il and gas extraction
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
..
..
124.9
+
-
128.4 +
131.5 +
130.0
107.3
141.5
+
+
128 '. 8
128.9 +
130.2 o
132.7 +
130.2
133.5
+
+
-
13o!o
132.5
106.8
140.7
128." 6
129.5
109.2
140.9
i3o!6
+
+
86.8
-
133.' 6
112.2
111.7
-
-f
152! 6
H5.3
131.1
116.2
129.3
+
+
..
o
•+
133 ll
112.1 +
122.4
•+
153 ll +
129.2
162.1
152.1
154.4
121.6
122.6
122.7
123.7
+
+
104.9
110.8
...
128 !£,
4 1094
+
137.9
109.2
(NA)
114.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
+|
116.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
133.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
83.1
86.4
131.1
(NA)
(NA)
128.7
142.8
130.4
127.2
(56)
(38)
+ i3o!6
+
+
+
127.0 +
-
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products
124.1 +
108.6
108.2
124.1
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are st^own along with tnp numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-} = falling. NA~ not available.
p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available', estimates 4re used' to compute the percent rising.
DECEMBER 1973
101
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1973
Diffusion index components
May
April
October
September
August
July
June
November
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
-
All rstail sales
Gfocory stores
.
...
Eating and drinking plocos
Dopartrnfifit stores .
Mail-order houses {department store merchandise)
.
....
+
-
....
.
Furniture, horns furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Passenger ear and other automotive dealers
Tire, batlcry, accessory dealers ...,....,
Gasoline service stations ,
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
4
....
4
4
+
4
8,012
3,060
4,167
452
41,735
-
(70)
(30)
Percent rising of ?3 components
Variety stores
.
Men's and boys' w@sr stores
Women's sppdrol accessory stores
Shoe stores
41,185
4
+
4+
41,179 +
(56)
8,074 3,096 4,326 4
453
8,000
3,085
4,329
450
+ r42,525 + r43,0«l 4 p4J,127
(35)
(74)
(43)
4
+
4
8,590
3,310
4.340
433
(NA)
(MA)
(NA)
(NA)
(74)
8,507 3,122 +
4,423 486
8,345
3,158
4,351
442
+
+
+
+
684
469
788
349 +
682
450
730
352
+
4+
+
r689 +
r462 +
r764
r371 +
697
505
728
377
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1,189
685
1,503
391
+
+
+
rl,2H r686
rl,42S +
r40S
1,175
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
4
+
4
709
463 +
780 +
338 +
1,208 658
1,5108 +
388 4
1,203
635
1,546
393
+
4
1,181 +
675
1,520 426
44
+
+
7,870
633
2,884
1,291
799
+
+
42,363
+
4
+
+
688
456
753
335
7,328
615
2,843
1»3U
807
-
(74)
656 +
444 4
706 +
339
7,927
628
2,868
1,280
783
42,778
4
4
+
+
1,217
637
1,515
379
+
+
7,992 662 +
2,908 1,305 817
r8,376
r3,2Sl
r4,406
r468
7,968 677 +
2,836 +
1,298 810
p?,771
r686
r2,876
rl,278
rB07
134.0 (86)
132.5
631
1,469
395
+
7,799
4698
43,017
4 1,336
4
B12
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES3
(1967-100)
All manufacturing industries
+
Percent rising of 22 components
Durable pods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables
Nonmetallic minerals products
1 ran and steel
126.7 +
(96)
+
4
+
+
128.7 4(91)
130.9
-
129.8 +
(70)
(84)
182.0
114.1
130.0
134-0
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
+
4
4
+
Miscellaneous machinery
Etectrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
+
4
+
4
+ 186.9 183.1 - 177.8 +
4115.1 + 115.2 o 115.2 +
+ 130.5 +
131.1 - 130.0 o
+ 135.3 + 135.9 o 135.9 +
131.4 + 133.2 + 135.0 4 135.9 +
123.7 4 126.7 4- 126.9 + 127.1 •f
127.3 + 128.3 4 128.7 + 129.1 +
125.6 + 126.4 4 127.2 + 127.4 o
123.1 + 124.4 o
124.4 o 124.4 +
111.7 4 112.3 + 112.7 o 112.7 o
119.0 +
119.1 - 118.9 + 119.0 o
118.6 4- 119.5 + 120.2 + 120.9 -t-
+
+
+
4
139.8
133.3
129.8
118.7
117.7
+
4
+
4-
145.0
137.4
127.5
121.5
118.4
+
44
+
+
151.8 141.3 +
131.3 +
122.9 +
118.8 o
+
+
-t+
+
119.8
107.7
127.9
110.6
145.0
+
4
+
+
-
120.7
109.3
133.9
111.5
142.2
+
+
+
+
-
122.0
110.4
146.6
112.6
140.9
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool (products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Potroleum products, refined . . . . .
Hubb$r and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products ,
+
+
+
+
H6.5
1U-6
132.1
123.1
118.8
122.3
110.8
146.1
112.9
141.4
+
+
+
+
+
178.8
115.9
130.0
136.0
+
(77)
133.0 4
(80)
137.9
127.8
130.9
127.4
+ 181.9 180.3 4
+
116.0 4 116.6 4
- 129.9 4
1,30.9 +
US. 6 +
+
136.5 +
HO. 7 +
+ 138.5 +
+ 128.7 4 129.6 +
4 131.4 4 132.2 4
+ 127.6 4 128.4 4
124.7
112.7
119.0
121.0
4 125.0 4
+
112.8 4>
118.3 +
+
121.1
166.2
147.3
134.9
123.7
119.3
4
4
4-
+ 123.3 4+
111.0 4- 145.9 +
+
113.1 + 143.0 4
135.8
(66)
184.7
117.2
131.5
141.6
144.9
130.9
133.8
130.3
125.2 4 125.6
113.0 4- 113.3
120.0 4 120.1
121.0 + 121.3
156.3
153.1
133.7
126.7
119.5
153.1 - 151.9
+ 155.5 + 161.2
- 130.2 128.9
4
127.7 +
128.6
+ 121.5 4 121.9
125.8 4 127.6
124-4 4
111.5 + 112.7 4113.5
146.1 4- 156.6 4 210.9
112.8 +
1H.O 4
114. 8
143.8 o 143.8 - 143.0
NOTE: To facilitate intepretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: {+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. NA-not available.
^ preliminary. r = revised.
^Bata are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shovn are preliminary.
^The
diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
3
J)ata are not seasonally adjusted.
102
DECEMBER 1973
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q CONSUMER PRICES
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
781. United 133. Canada,
States,
index of
index of
consumer
consumer
prices @
prices®
132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices©
135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®
136. France,
index of
consumer
prices®
13% Japan,
index of
consumer
pricps®
137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices®
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
1967=100}
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(19^7=100)
[(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
January
February
March
119
119
120
113
113
114
123
1?4
125
111
112
113
120
121
121
125
125
125
112
113
113
105
106
106
117
118
119
113
110
109
127
129
131
April
May
June
120
121
122
115
115
115
128
128
129
114
114
115
122
123
123
127
127
127
113
114
114
106
107
107
119
120
121
111
111
112
128
127
130
122
122
122
116
117
117
130
130
130
115
115
116
124
124
125
127
126
131
in
115
115
107
106
107
121
124
125
111
111
112
132
132
136
October
November
December
...
1972
January .
February
March
122
123
123
117
117
118
131
132
132
116
117
117
126
126
127
131
129
129
116
117
117
107
107
108
125
125
125
111
111
110
135
136
135
123
124
124
118
119
119
133
134
134
118
119
119
127
128
128
130
130
131
117
118
118
109
110
112
127
126
127
110
101
112
138
137
139
April
May
June
124
125
125
120
120
120
136
136
137
120
120
121
129
130
130
132
133
133
119
120
120
113
114
114
130
128
129
114
116
115
138
141
140
July
August
September
126
126
126
122
122
123
138
139
139
122
122
123
131
132
'133
133
134
135
121
122
123
115
116
118
128
127
131
113
113
115
H3
143
143
October
November
December
1973
January .
February
...
March . . . . . . .
127
127
127
123
123
124
141
142
143
124
124
125
134
135
136
136
135
137
124
125
126
119
120
121
134
135
137
116
118
119
143
147
H8
128
129
130
125
126
126
1U
144
145
126
127
128
1>136
137
38
t[40
|L43
127
128
130
122
123
124
135
138
139
119
122
123
152
152
153
April
May
June
131
132
132
128
129
130
148
149
150
129
129
130
138
139
140
}48
148
131
133
134
124
125
126
140
140
142
122
122
123
148
156
153
July
August
Septembsr
133
135
136
131
133
133
151
151
152
130
130
131
141
IU2
143
f°
351
355
135
136
L37
127
126
127
141
p!37
(NA)
r!24
r!23
p!24
r!58
r!58
p!50
• October
November
December
137
138
(NA)
155
(NA)
(NA)
(M)
154
11.56
(MO
r!27
p!27
(NA)
(NA)
Year
and
month
1971
July
August
September
•.
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the hack o'f the book. Ihe "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
ICO
DECEMBER 1973
103
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
§
Q INDUSTRIAL PRQDUCTION-Con.
1 STOCK PRICES
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
121.0ECD, 1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
19. United
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks®
143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©
142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©
146. France,
index of
stock
prices©
145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©
148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices©
147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices©
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1987=100)
1971
January
February
March „
133
139
138
1'56
155
156
126
126
126
117
117
116
102
106
108
108
108
109
123
122
120
136
139
137
125
134
137
H5
151
161
91
94
93
April «
May
June
140
138
138
156
152
155
127
126
127
113
113
114
112
111
108
112
108
109
131
146
147
137
141
140
135
133
137
171
172
182
89
S§
83
July
August
September
139
134
138
156
156
158
128
125
129
112
104
117
108
106
108
109
107
108
157
158
164
141
135
128
135
136
129
190
179
170
03
82
78
Qetobar . ,
November
DocembDr
1072
Januafy
February
March
138
137
129
156
158
157
129
129
127
116
117
119
106
101
108
100
98
107
160
156
165
118
124
124
124
124
133
166
168
178
78
75
77
140
137
140
158
160
163
131
128
132
119
117
115
112
114
117
117
119
121
175
180
186
128
130
140
137
146
152
195
204
215
78
76
74
April „
May
June
142
142
139
162
164
165
132
134
133
114
117
117
118
117
118
121
123
127
191
194
184
147
155
147
157
161
159
230
241
257
79
SO
78
July
August
September
141
138
144
165
169
171
133
132
135
114
112
115
117
121
119
126
134
133
187
195
185
156
162
163
159
165
160
373
290
30C
80
80
79
October
November
December
1973
January »
February
March
144
146
149
173
176
180
137
139
141
124
122
123
119
125
128
133
134
Ul
180
186
191
164
153
149
155
156
155
309
327
35A
86
86
151
155
151
186
186
193
142
144
143
r!24
123
123
129
124
122
146
145
143
182
168
164
174
173
185
167
165
173
387
361,
365
83
84
93
April
May
June
155
151
154
191
196
196
rLU
145
145
132
130
139
120
117
114
142
135
135 >
168
167
171
191
196
190
174
161
157
3U
339
331*
9?
109
125
July
August
September
147
rl51
pl60
196
199
p2Ql
143
rlU
p!46
139
134
136
115
113
115
141
1U
P146
161
156
154-
183
179
pi 70
146
144
140
35'?
351
333
118
105
107
October
November
Oecembsr
(NA)
(Nfc)
(WO
(NA)
119
p!55
rpH9
p!37
159
151
p!27
pi 71
rp!73
pl62
141
p!33
p!22
325
313
P294
105
plOA
P96
Year
and
month
in
p!02
ai
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
1
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
104
DECEMBER 1973
ltd!
APPENDIXES
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
200.
205
210.
215.
217.
220.
222.
224.
225.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator . . . .
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
National income, current dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, constant dollars .
226.
227.
230.
231.
232.
233.
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
|Q'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
1.64
1.20
.65
...
1.39
1.03
1.69
1.56
1.51
1.07
0.32
.34
.11
.32
.34
.36
.22
.26
.30
.28
.29
.34
.37
1.58
1.05
.65
1.31
.87
1.59
1.54
1.48
1.00
1.35
1.31
1.43
1.35
1.31
1.45
1.26
1.40
1.35
11.00
1.40
1.45
1.26
1.26
1.20
11.00
8.56
5.13
5.13
2.85
7.70
3.67
38.50
77.00
4.81
2.81
7.00
77.00
1.26
1.26
1.26
1.31
77.00
.60
.38
.66
.49
.31
.49
.31
.61
.43
.80
2.48
4.05
2.85
2.96
3.35
2.85
3.08
1.71
2.57
2.75
1.40
1.37
1.28
1.24
1.33
1.37
1.33
1.24
1.28
1.28
4.81
5.13
5.13
4.05
6.42
4.53
4.81
2.85
5.92
7.00
2.48
4.05
2.85
2.96
3.35
2.85
3.08
2.62
4.00
2.75
5.92
3.35
3.35
1.31
1.31
1.22
15.40
5.92
3.35
3.35
3.08
1.24
1.24
1.31
1.26
1.22
.32
.17
.25
.39
.22
.14
.18
.30
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.24
.40
.23
.38
.68
1
1
1
1
1
'.24
.43
1
2
1
1
.43
.44
.37
.12
.80
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
0.21
0.21
.32
.17
.25
.39
.22
.14
.18
.30
8.56
3.67
19.25
7.00
4.53
7.00
15.40
15.40
5.92
Per capita disposable personal income, current dollars
Per capita disposable personal income, constant dollars
Total personal consumption expenditures, current dollars . . .
Total personal consumption expenditures, constant dollars . .
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, except
automobiles
234. Personal consumption expend., automobiles . . . .
236. Personal consumption expend., nondurable goods
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services
.
. .
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
1.22
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
2.13
6.44
1.27
1.78
240.
241.
242
243.
244.
247.
248.
249.
252.
253.
Gross private domestic investment, total
Total nonresidential fixed investment
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures
Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment
Fixed investment, residential structures
Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars .
Fixed investment in residential structures, 1958 dollars
Gross auto product, 1958 dollars
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
IQ'53-IIQ'72
I Q '53-1 1 Q '72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
4.51
2.63
2.64
3.18
3.81
2.26
3.70
260.
261.
262.
264.
Govt. purchases of goods and services, total
Total Govt. purchases of goods and services, 1958 dollars . . .
Federal Govt. purchases of goods and services
Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense
State and local govt. purchases goods and services
Final sales, durable goods
Final sales 1958 dollars
Final sales, nondurable goods
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
1.94
1.48
2.17
.53
.61
.89
1.82
1.27
1.90
.29
.48
.47
1
1
1
.29
.48
.47
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
2.23
2.38
2.31
1.02
1.31
.80
.40
1.95
2.37
1.89
.41
.17
.56
.39
.39
1
1
1
1
1
.41
.17
.56
.39
.39
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
1.71
1.26
1.11
4.28
3.73
4.49
8.43
.16
.61
.42
.70
.23
.64
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
.16 11.00
.61
2.48
7.70
.42
2.96
.70
.23 25.67
2.66
.64
1.75
.45
1.35
1.35
1.33
1.22
1.28
1.26
1.28
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
9.98
1.93
6.08
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72.
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72.
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
8.21
4.97
4.94
3.88
3.70
1.54
2.80
4.23
2.83
2.91
2.09
2.11
266.
270.
273
274.
280.
282
284
286.
288.
290.
292.
294.
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income . .
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adjustment
Net interest
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation
adjustment
.
296 Capital consumption allowances
.83
1.51
1.05
3.14
10.61
3.80
3.30
1.62
.83
4.21
.44
.20
1.99
.89
1.40
1.28
1.08
.95
1.05
7.70
2.53
1.98
1.07
.37
1.17
.73
1.47
.98
2.36
1.92
4.02
1.21
1.75
3.33
2.35
2.13
2.62
3.51
1.92
3.36
5.58
2.52
2.46
.93
.49-
1.24
.26
.62
.42
1.67
1.03
2.22
.83
2.17
6.28
.36
.98
3.18
3.69
3.41
5.05
1.05
.37
.12
.60
.38
.66
.49
.31
.49
.31
1.38
1.00
1.24
.40
.23
.38
.68
7.00
5.13
11.00
5.13
2.85
4.81
2.20
7.00
25.67
3.08
3.08
7.00
7.06
1.87
.86
.19
1
1
.86
.19
25.67
1.33
1.31
6.24
3.74
3.74
2.99
2.85
1.50
2.51
.68
.76
.78
.70
.74
.22
.40
.40
.48
.19
.82
.21
.32
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2.85
.68
.76
2.85
.78
2.75
.70
2.57
.74
2.57
.22 15.40
.40
3.67
.40
3.67
3.85
.48
3.85
.19
2.26
.82
8.56
.21
3.67
.32
1.24
1.22
1.22
1.26
1.26
1.22
1.20
1.35
1.28
1.28
1.24
1.35
1.31
.47
.44
.17
1
1
1
2
1
.47
.44
.17
.55
.75
1.22
1.45
1.30
2.14
7.00
38.50
11.00
7.00
12.83
15.40
77.00
11.00
8.56
77.00
5.13
4.53
8.56
3.67
19.25
7.00
4.53
7.00
15.40
15.40
5.92
7.00
5.13
11.00
4.81
3.08
25.67
25.67
7.00
3.08
3.08
7.00
11.00
19.25
11.00
11.00
4.81
6.42
4.28
2.48
7.70
2.96
25.67
25.67
6.42
4.28
2.66
2.53
2.75
2.14
25.67
25.67
3.35
4.28
4.81
5.50
4.81
2.85
2.85
2.75
2.57
2.57
15.40
15.40
5.92
7.00
5.92
6.42
3.50
7.00
3.67
3.67
3.85
3.85
2.26
8.56
3.67
5.55
7.62
8.71
3.79
4.36
3.21
4.36
6.78
2.48
2.18
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
1 1.
*16
18
34
35
57.
*61
63
68
97
110
*200
*205
New capital appropriations, manufacturing
Corporate profits, after taxes
Corporate profits after taxes 1958 dollars
Net cash flow, corporate
Net cash flow corporate 1958 dollars
Final sales
Business expend , new plant and equipment
Unit labor cost, total private economy
Labor cost per unit of gross prod nonfin corp
Backlog of capital appropriations manufacturing
Total private borrowing
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
.
.82
.89
.
4.83
9.55
1.64
1.20
.33
1.00
.29
.37
.87
5.63
.32
.34
.73
.77
4.65
6.84
1.58
1.05
11.00
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
61 a
410
412
430a
435.
Business expend , new plant and equipment
Manufacturers' sales total value
Manufacturers' inventories total book value
New car purchases by households
Index of consumer sentiment
IQ'57-IIQ72
|Q'57-IIQ72
IQ'57-IIQ72
IQ'59-IIQ72
IIQ'57-IIQ72 . . . .
See definitions of measures at end of part 1.
2.76
2.22
1.44
7.93
2.88
1.13
.79
.24
5.54
1.51
2.39
1.80
1.40
4.33
2.00
1.28
.75
3.21
4.36
6.78
1.83
2.18
•1.29
1.20
105
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Quarterly series
Period
covered
Cl
T
C
I/C
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
211.
252.
253
264.
530.
532.
Fixed weighted price index gross private product
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
National defense purchases .
. . .
...
Liquid liabilities to all foreigners (§)
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign official
agencies ®
534.
536
537
540.
IQ'65-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQWIIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72 . . . .
0.91
3.68
3.51
2.23
3.31
1.12
0.89
2.20
2.72
1.95
2.74
IQWIVQ'71 ...
5.98
2.66
4.83
IQ'BO-IVQ'71 ....
IQ '60-11072
IQWIIQ72
2.61
5.06
4.62
1.31
3.93
2.78
2.21
2.40
3.31
0.10
2.67
2.18
.80
29.00
29.00
29.00
7.00
4.81
4.45
3.69
2.72
3.08
2.88
.80
.41
.41
1
2
1
1
1
.55
1
.55
2.47
1.15
3.62
2.47
.59
.84
1
2
1
.59
.68
.84
2.94
1.75
3.06
1.27
1.29
1.29
5.22
3.77
6.12
2.94
3.20
3.06
0.12
1.21
.51
.80
.41
.41
2.45
2.72
3.08
2.88
1.38
1.22
1.29
1.24
1.32
12.25
0.12
U.S. official reserve assets®
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Investment income, military sales, and other services,
exports
541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures, and other
services imports
IQ'60-11072
3.50
2.21
2.51
.88
1
.88
2.04
1.26
8.17
2.04
IQWIIQ72
2.58
1.22
2.16
.56
1
.56
2.72
1.20
6.12
2.72
542
543
544
545
546
547
Income on U S in vestments abroad
Income on foreign investments in U S
Receipts from foreign travelers in U S
Payments by U S travelers abroad
Military sales to foreigners
U S. military expenditures abroad (§)
IQ'60-IIQ72
IQ '60-11072
IQ'60-IIQ72
IQ'60-IIQ72
IQ'60-IIQ72
IQ'60-IIQ72
5.26
5.05
3.28
3.93
3.60
2.21
1.57
2.35
1.10
18.56
13.97
3.44
2.33
3.28
4.63
2.64
2.85
9.13
2.18
2
1
1
1
2
2
.43
.48
.59
.82
.63
.43
1.69
4.08
3.50
2.33
1.53
1.88
1.17
1.22
1.53
1.20
1.26
1.22
3.50
6.12
4.90
4.45
2.23
3.77
3.43
4.08
3.50
2.33
2.18
2.82
548
549
601.
602
745
746
770
858
Receipts from transportation and other services
Payments for transportation and other services
Fed. receipts, natl income and product accts
Fed expend natl income and product accts
Avg hourly compensation private nonfarm economy
Real avg hourly comp private nonfarm economy
Output per man-hour total private economy
Output per man-hour total private nonfarm
IQ '60-1 10 72
IQ'60-11072
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ '53-110 72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ72
3.06
3.51
' 2.53
2.17
1.24
2.34
2.65
2.12
2.16
2.32
1.93
1.22
1.10
1.23
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2.23
.45
2.13
.51
3.67
.41
4.05
.47
77.00
.16
8.56
.36
.50
3.67
3.35
.54
1.26
1.32
1.28
1.18
1.40
1.38
1.26
5.44
3.77
5.50
7.00
4.36
2.82
3.67
4.05
77.00
15.40
77.00
IQ'53-IIQ72
8.02
2
.48
.67
.86
.87
.94
.90
.20
.23
.38
.38
.65
.76
.71
1.63
.48
.59
.82
1.53
1.07
.41
.47
.16
.36
.50
.54
8.56
8.56
3.67
1.26
7.00
3.35
1.28
3.50
3.17
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
6.23
4.80
1.30
1.60
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators,
by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted
from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"Cl" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the
unadjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained
by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an
estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter
spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.),
2-quarter spans (1st quarter-3d quarter, 2d quarter-4th
quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
106
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated
by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with
a QCD greater than "3" are shown as "4".
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad justed
series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of
the period of QCD. When QCD is "4", no I/C ratio is shown for
the QCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of
observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and
the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving
average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the
seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter
intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CT is
1.60 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average,
reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.28 for I
and 3.5C for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has
been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is
3.17 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a
2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series
(2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the
average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR
from 1.60 for CI to 3.17 for the QCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend
movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes
Unit of
measure
Period
covered
Quarterly series
1
CI
C
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
QCD
span
CI
.71
2 0.54
.51
2
1 .84
.60
2
4
C1)
1 .71
1.64
1.71
2.33
1.60
1.40
2.75
1.31
1.31
1.28
1.37
1.26
1.33
3.21
2.96
4.05
2.75
2.41
3.85
2.53
2.53
2.33
2.53
2.85
2.75
.83
1
.83
2.57
1.33
3.21
2.57
2
1
.37
.58
2.75
2.48
1.24
1.40
6.42
3.85
4.75
2.48
2
.54
1.64
1.31
3.21
2.53
1
2
2
2
1
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
.97
.43
.45
.77
.83
.57
C1)
.82
.61
.56
.65
.56
2.04
1.88
2.04
1.75
2.04
1.88
1.48
1.48
1.81
1.48
1.53
1.53
1.22
1.22
1.44
1.36
1.40
1.36
1.20
1.40
1.29
1.09
1.22
1.22
3.50
4.08
4.08
2.58
2.88
2.45
1.96
2.45
2.58
2.72
2.45
2.72
2.04
2.67
2.67
2.18
2.04
2.18
2.09
2.18
2.18
2.18
2.67
2.00
1
1
2
.79 2.33
.95 1.55
.71 1.42
1.26
1.13
1.13
4.28
2.43
2.12
2.33
1.55
2.00
1
1
1
.50
.53
.97
1.31
1.31
1.30
5.50
3.85
2.83
3.08
3.35
2.03
T/c
QCD
1
C
QCD
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
245. Change in business inventories, total
IQ'53-IIQ'72 ..
246
250
271 .
275.
298
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-MQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
Change in business inventories 1958 dollars
Net exports of goods and services .
Change in business inventories, durable goods . .
Change in bus. inventories, nondurable goods
Government surplus or deficit, total
..
..
..
..
Ann. rate,
bil dol
...do . ...
...do
...do
...do
...do
2.65
2.57
.92
2.41
1.64
3.01
1.85
1.77
.56
1.59
1.44
1.81
1.54
1.55
.67
1.32
.62
2.54
1.20
1.14
.84
1.20
2.30
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
15 Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales mfg
22. Ratio of profits to income originating in corporate
business
.
*67 Bank rates on short-term bus loans (§) .
245. Change in business inventories, total
IQ'53-IIQ'72 ..
Cents
.22
.13
.15
IQ'53-IIQ'72 ..
IQ'53-IIQ'72 ..
IQ'53-IIQ'72 ..
Percent
do .
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
.45
.18
.32
.09
.32
.16
2.65
1.85
1.54
1.00
.58
1.20
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
250.
515
517
519
521
522
560
561.
564
565
570
575
600
Balance on goods and services
Balance on goods services and remittances
Balance o n current account
.
.
Balance on curr acct and long term capital
Net liquidity balance
Official reserve transactions balance
Foreign direct investments in the U.S
U.S. direct investments abroad
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
U S purchases of foreign securities
Govt. grants and capital transactions, net
Banking and other capital transactions net
Fed balance, natl income and product accts
.
IQ'68-IIQ'72 ..
IQ'68-IIQ'72 ..
259.04 169.62 174.84
Mil. dol
253.80 172.57 168.31
...do
263.92 183.28 167.97
... do.
642.75 462.57 311.70
.. do
749.49 408.84 491.05
...do
L,071.73 660.39 613.98
...do
118.04 102.80 44.66
...do
227.24 176.99 101.60
...do
193.63 128.88 114.02
...do
159.06 142.41 88.90
...do
...do
281.67 220.78 130.55
387.41 338.00 202.27
.. do .
Ann. rate,
2.38
1.89
bil. dol
3.07
1.41
1.34
1.94
Ann. rate, pet.
.79
1.22
1.45
.. do .
IQ'53-IIQ'72 ..
IQ'53-IIQ72 ..
IQ'56-IIQ'72 ..
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
Percent
... do
IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72
. IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQWIIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQ'BO-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQ'BO-IIQ'72
IQ'BO-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
748. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, first year —
749. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, life of contract .
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
.97
1.03
1.09
1.48
.83
1.08
2.30
1.74
1.13
1.60
1.69
1.67
.79
.95
1.54
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
207 GNP gap (potential less actual)
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing
857 Vacancy rate in total rental housing (g)
*Series included in the 1966 NBER 'short list" of 26 indicators.
when QCD is "4."
4.57
1.58
.24
1.87
.67
.15
3.77
1.27
.16
.50
.53
.97
3.08
3.35
2.03
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
•"•Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure
as the series itself.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
107
B. Current Adjustment Factors
19 73
Series
Jan.
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13 New business incorporations
1
U2.9
110.8
1 5. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
mfg 2
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
110.3
91.5
89.1
81.5
84.5
120.8
83.1
77.3
85.6
104.0
128.9
93.6
106.9
102.1
107.2
104.1
99.9
99.3
89.3
101.9
89.8
94.4
96.1
106.9
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies1 3 .
-507
-608
-266
-323
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
96.5
101.5
112.8
110.0
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans4
May
105.3
+119
108.7
88.7
97.5
+637
108.9
-17
106.9
91.4
99.3
+481
+133
+119
98.9
90.9
87.6
-81
91.7
84.9
113.9
99.4
99.4
+338
99.7
98.9
99.6
100.0
100.3
100.7
100.9
100.2
100.0
100.0
99.4
100.0
99.9
99.3
104.1
101.8
98.2
106.8
103.2
98.8
99.3
96.0
92.1
99.9
616. Defense Department obligations, total
104.2
85.8
90.0
95.0
84.5
138.3
106.8
97.2
107.7
103.9
89.1
97.2
621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement
102.8
87.4
80.3
78.1
68.1
180.9
65.2
77.4
142.5
107.9
92 6
117 4
91.3
84.0
89.2
75.1
76.9
179.0
97.3
103.3
105.5
81 7
106 2
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical
machinery
.
...
625 Military contract awards in U S
D34 Profits, manufacturing (FNCB)
5
-11
+14
110.7
-9
+6
NOTE: These series are not published in seasonally adjusted form by the source agency (except series 13 and D34). Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment
Program.
"
•"•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version'of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
4
Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, August, October, and December).
5
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
2
3
108
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix provides historical data (back to 1945 if available) for each series. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables each
selected BCD series. Data are shown for series which (a) have recently month and may be used to update these historical tables.
been added to the report, (b) have recently been revised, or (c) have not
Series shown here are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated
been shown here for a long time. By keeping these tables, the user can by ©, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Official source
acquire a complete set of historical data. Each time a series is included agency annual figures are shown if available. Such figures are often
in this appendix, it is footnoted to indicate the extent of any revisions derived from data with more digits or from data which have not been
since it was last shown. See the "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual
Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published for figures computed from the monthly or quarterly data shown.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
1 Q
III Q
IIQ
IQ
IV Q
748. NEGOTIATED WAGE AND BENEFIT DECISIONS, FIRST YEAR
AVERAGE CHANGES @
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
AVERAGE
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
9 0
8
11
10
9
9
3
6
7
8 5
12
16
11
8
9
3
5
1
8 5
9C
6
0
0
7
13 2
10 €
12 "
72
11
16
15
8
850. RATIO, OUTPUT TO CAPACITY, MANUFACTURING
(PERCENT)
7
6
4
4
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
6
i
6
8
6
8
8
8
7
0
5
2
10
10
8
7
3
9
2
3
•. •
•• t
t..
92.7
82.7
91.9
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949,
1950.
•«
•
t
•
f
.
92.2
97.5
89. «
84.4
91.2
88.1
95.1
92.8
95.5
84.1
90.0
88.2
1951,
1952.
1953,
1954.
1955.
1956,
.
•
t
«
•
5.6
•
•
•
•
5.4
84.6
75.3
80.3
79.0
78.7
81.4
79.6
76.1
79. £>
7f ,e
80. £>
81. *
84.5
75.1
81.4
80.1
77.6
81.4
1957,
1958,
1959,
1960.
1961.
1962.
4,8
5.7
6.1
8,0
8.9
8.5
83.3
85.4
88.5
92.3
87.7
88.1
83.1
86.0
89.3
92.3
87.3
87.6
83.6
86.:
89."
91. <)
87."r
87.2>
83.0
85.5
89.0
91.9
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
87.1
79.8
75.6
77.9
86.9
78.3
74.7
79.4
84.:5
74.2
7^.<>
81. £
1969.
1970.
1971,
1972.
1973.
94.4
86.4
83.6
93.3
82.3
90.1
92.7
82.1
96.7
90.'
79. S
97.^
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
96.1
93.0
98.0
85.4
87.8
90.0
96.9
90.2
98.0
83.7
90.5
88.8
93.3
90.8
96.2
83.0
90.4
86.1
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
88.0
74.3
81.2
84.1
74.2
81.3
85.6
72.5
34.4
81.2
76.7
81.4
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
81.9
84.2
88.3
91.4
88.9
87.9
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
87.7
80.8
75.0
75.6
87.9
87.7
86.5
78.3
75.0
78.6
IV Q
III Q
6 5
7
11
8
7
8
6
7
3
AVERAGE
6 i
6 4
9C
75
10 6
66
8 4
9 5
9 0
7 n
857. VACANCY RATE IN TOTAL RENTAL HOUSING 1 ©
(PERCENT)
AVERAGE
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
8 8
11
13
12
8
II Q
749. NEGOTIATED WAGE AND BENEFIT DECISIONS, AVERAGE CHANGES
OVER LIFE OF CONTRACT (u) (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
Annual
Year
t
t
.
i
•
...
.
.
*
•
AVERAGE
*i.
t
•
t
i
...
•
.
•
*
5.8
t
•
«
•
5.:
,
,
,
5.5
4.9
6.0
6.7
8.0
8.8
8.1
5.2
5.8
6.6
8.3
8.6
8.0
5.2
6.C
6.1t
8.1
8.f)
8.3
5.0
5.9
6.4
8.2
8,7
8,2
8.0
8.1
8.5
8.3
7.3
6.1
8.2
8.1
8.2
7.4
6.9
6.2
8.3
8.4
7.6
7.4
7.0
5.9
8.25
8.15
8.E>
7.'r
6.2>
5.1t
8.2
8.2
8.2
5,6
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.7
5.4
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.6
5.8
5. L
5.2>
5,<)
5,<>
5.5
5,3
5.4
5.6
t
t
,
t
.
B
(
7.7
6.8
5.9
(DECEMBER 1973)
109
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS
(1941-43-10)
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
®
II Q
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
13.49
18.02
15.21
14.83
15.36
16.38
13.94
18.07
15.80
14.10
14.77
17.21
13,93
17.53
15.16
14.30
14.91
17.35
14.28
18.66
14.60
15.40
14.89
17.84
14.82
18.70
14.34
16.15
14,78
18.44
15.09
18.58
14.84
16.82
13.97
18.74
14.78
18.05
15.77
16.42
14.76
17.38
14.83
17.70
15.46
15.94
15.29
18,43
15.84
15,09
15.06
15.76
15.49
19.08
16.50
14.75
15,45
16,19
15,89
19.87
17.04
14.69
15.27
15.29
16,11
19.83
17.33
15.13
15.03
15.19
16.54
19.75
13.79
17.87
15.39
14.41
15.01
17.15
14.73
18.65
14.59
16.12
14,55
18.34
15.15
16.95
15.43
16.04
15.18
18,30
16.96
14.86
15.25
15.56
16.18
19.82
15.16
17.08
15.17
15.53
15.23
18.40
1951,
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
.
.
.
.
.
.
21.21
24.19
26.18
25.46
35.60
44.15
22.00
23.75
25.86
26.02
36.79
44.43
21.63
23.81
25.99
26.57
36.50
47.49
21.92
23.74
24.71
27.63
37.76
48.05
21.93
23.73
24.84
28.73
37.60
46.54
21.55
24.38
23.95
28.96
39.78
46.27
21.93
25.08
24.29
30.13
42.69
48.78
22.89
25.18
24.39
30.73
42.43
46.49
23.46
24.78
23.27
31,45
44,34
46,84
23.36
24.26
23.97
32.18
42,11
46.24
22,71
25.03
24.50
33.44
44.95
45.76
23.41
26,04
24.83
34.97
45.37
46.44
21,61
23.92
26.01
26.02
36.30
45.36
21.80
23.95
24.50
28,44
38,38
46,95
22.77
25.01
23.98
30.77
43.15
48.04
23.16
25.11
24,43
33,53
44,14
46.15
22.34
24.50
24.73
29.69
40.49
46.62
1957.
1958.
1959.
I960.
1961.
1962.
.
.
.
.
.
.
45.43
41.12
55.62
58.03
59.72
69.07
43.47
41.26
54.77
55.78
62.17
70.22
44.03
42.11
56.15
55,02
64.12
70.29
45.05
42.34
57.10
55.73
65.83
68.05
46.78
43.70
57.96
55,22
66.50
62.99
47.55
44.75
57.46
57.26
65.62
55.63
48.51
45.98
59.74
55.84
65.44
56.97
45.84
47.70
59.40
56.51
67.79
58.52
43,98
48.96
57.05
54.81
67.26
58,00
41.24
50.95
57.00
53.73
68.00
56.17
40.35
52.50
57.23
55.47
71.08
60.04
40.33
53.49
59,06
56,80
71,74
62.64
44,31
41,50
55.51
56.28
62.00
69.66
46.46
43.60
57.51
56.07
65.98
62.22
46.11
47.55
58.73
55,72
66,83
57,83
40.64
52.31
57.76
55.33
70.27
59.62
44.38
46.24
57.38
55.85
66.27
62.38
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
.
.
.
.
.
.
65.06
76.45
86.12
93.32
84.45
95.04
65.92
77.39
86.75
92.69
87,36
90.75
65.67
78,80
86.83
88.88
89.42
89.09
68.76
79.94
87,97
91,60
90.96
95.67
70.14
80.72
89.28
86.78
92.59
97.87
70.11
80.24
85.04
86.06
91.43
100.53
69.07
83.22
84.91
85.84
' 93.01
100.30
70.98
82.00
86.49
80.65
94.49
98.11
72.85
83.41
89.38
77.81
95.81
101.34
73.03
84.65
91.39
77.13
95.66
103.76
72.62
85.44
92.15
80.99
92.66
105.40
74.17
83.96
91.73
81.33
95.30
106.48
65.55
77.55
86.57
91,63
87,08
91,63
69.67
80.30
87.43
88.15
91.66
98.02
70.97
82.88
86.93
81.43
94.44
99.92
73.27
84,75
91.76
79.82
94.54
105.21
69.86
81.37
88,17
85.26
91.93
98.70
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
.
.
.
.
.
102.04
90.31
93.49
103.30
101.46
87.16
97.11
105.24
99.30
88.65
99.60
107.69
101.26
85.95
103.04
108.81
104.62
76.06
101.64
107.65
99.14
75.59
99.72
108.01
94,71
75.72
99.00
107.21
94.18
77.92
97.24
111.01
94.51
82.58
99.40
109.39
95.52
84.37
97.29
109.56
96.21
84.28
92.78
115.05
91.11
90.05
99,17
117.50
100.93
88,71
96,73
105,41
101.67
79.20
101.47
108.16
94.47
78.74
98.55
109.20
94.28
86.23
96.41
114.04
97.84
83.22
98.29
109.20
019. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF STOCK PRICESj 500 COMMON STOCKS1 ®
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
...
1948.
1949.
1950.
...
73.7
87.5
2.5
17.5
66.2
81.2
71.2
66.2
93.1
47.5
47.5
95.6
29.4
75.0
80.0
1.9
33.1
12.5
100.0
19.4
3.7
95.0
94.4
31.9
72,5
90.0
61.9
95.0
92.5
1.2
65.6
31.9
41.2
86.2
52,5
...
54.1
73.3
89.6
26.3
51.9
16.0
89.2
67,9
34.8
82.3
59.0
63.0
63.0
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
98.7
76.9
71.2
93.1
72.5
41.2
85.0
25.6
43.7
79.4
87.5
41.9
21.9
56.2
80.6
80.6
47.5
88.7
49.4
21.2
5.6
85.6
83.7
33.7
40.0
38.1
41.2
66.9
33.1
23.1
20.0
78.1
0.0
71.2
88.7
20.0
47.5
85.6
65.0
90.6
53.7
95.0
92.5
53.7
76.9
83.1
23.1
56.9
93,1
13.7
0,0
51,9
70.6
12,5
41.9
13.7
75.6
60.6
5.0
23.7
6.2
90.0
81.2
91.9
86.9
46.9
71.2
90.0
67.5
96.2
71.9
45.6
68.5
52.9
65.2
84.4
69.2
57.3
36.5
45.8
15.6
81.2
68.5
25.6
77.7
51.0
47.3
75.2
49.1
54.8
39.8
64.6
74.8
82.9
54.6
38.7
55.6
53.6
50.7
80.9
60.4
44.1
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
57.5
91.9
86.2
27.5
86.9
25.6
13.7
77.5
62.5
12.5
96.2
75.0
81.2
73.1
80.6
34.4
85.6
47.5
74.4
59.4
53.1
51.9
72.5
8.7
78.7
91.2
53.7
35. 0
81.9
1.2
42.5
86.2
41.9
76.2
40.0
1.2
51.9
85.6
80.6
35.0
42.5
69.4
7.5
88.7
42.5
76.2
81.2
78.1
8.1
84,4
9,4
16,9
40.0
36.2
4,4
80,0
52,5
25,0
46,9
8,1
26.2
89.4
55.6
90.0
87.5
98.7
49.4
82.5
71.9
81.2
55.0
84.4
50.8
80.8
76.4
24,8
89.6
49.4
65.2
78.9
49.6
54.4
64.8
3.7
22.5
86.2
44.2
42.7
54.6
61.2
26.7
84.0
60.0
65.4
63.1
63.7
41.3
82.5
57.5
46.8
68,0
44.5
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
97.5
74.7
92.2
74.0
90.9
64.5
78.7
65,2
81.8
48.7
92.2
10.5
43.7
78.5
64.3
1^.3
61.0
21.1
91.2
75.6
70.8
63.6
76.0
94,7
85.0
52.6
66.9
3.9
74.0
83.6
51.9
35.3
0.0
23.4
51.3
80.3
29.4
89,7
24.7
38.3
81.6
48.7
75.0
41,0
79,9
6.5
77.6
17.8
76,9
76,3
81,2
3,9
57,2
86,7
44,9
73.1
66.9
25.3
32.2
82.7
44.9
59.6
70.1
88.3
7.9
77.3
68.4
24.0
57.1
59.7
71.1
72.7
73.3
72.8
79.4
45.7
81.4
32.0
76.0
54.5
45.9
30.3
67.1
86.2
60.4
69.0
61,9
16.2
72.1
51.1
52.7
52.2
64.7
57.8
37.1
77.6
65.6
62.1
63.0
37.5
64.4
61.7
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
12.0
43.3
95.8
89.6
43,3
23,3
87,5
70.1
13.3
82.7
71.5
76.4
54.0
16,4
84.0
71.5
74.7
2.7
41.7
21.5
1.3
47.9
27.8
43.1
4.0
41.7
44.4
30.6
34.7
77.8
23.6
76.4
61.3
96.5
71.5
33.8
72.7
72.?
18.1
33.8
68.0
48.6
2.8
90.1
4.0
98.6
95.8
77.5
22.9
49.8
84.9
78.7
43.3
22.3
51.2
45.4
33.3
72.0
46.5
46.9
48.2
73.1
38.9
67.1
36.9
54.3
55.4
59.5
D19. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS1 ®
(PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS)
61.2
70.6
71.9
61.2
83.7
67,5
55,0
85.0
65.0
-•o.o
32,5
96,2
78,7
'.'..
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
11.2
97.5
80.0
10.0
96.2
84.4
20.0
92.5
96.9
24^6
80.0
•. .
...
62!?
70,6
49.6
88.3
70.4
13.7
95,4
87,1
67 '.7
77.0
1949.
1950.
27.5
90.0
18.7
87.5
27.5
62.5
53.7
68.7
63.7
71,2
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
96.2
42,5
59.4
83.7
91,2
56.2
83.7
35.0
38.1
91.2
97.5
51.2
68.7
52.5
55.0
92.5
96.2
72.5
80.0
67.5
48.7
97.5
95.0
67.5
66.2
58,7
16.2
97.5
88.7
55.6
4^.5
17 5
96,2
70.0
48.7
45.6
64.4
3C,0
96.2
68.7
43.7
62.5
74.4
31.2
97.5
81.2
31.9
61.2
80,0
53,7
100,0
63,7
33,7
52.5
81.2
65.6
98.7
72.5
27.5
66.2
79.4
83.7
98,7
73.7
41.2
62.5
65.0
83.7
98.7
60.6
33.1
82.9
43.3
50.8
89.1
95.0
6Q.O
78.7
56.2
27.5
97.1
84.6
57.3
56.4
72.9
38.3
97.9
71.2
36,4
60.4
75.2
77.7
98,7
68.9
33,9
69.6
61.9
48.6
95.7
79.9
46.9
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
51.2
47.5
95.0
30,0
97.5
17.5
59.4
60.0
85.0
41.2
97.5
6.2
65.0
95.0
85.0
42.5
97.5
7.5
50.0
100.0
84.4
42.5
97.5
3.1
36.9
100.0
67.5
36.9
95.6
3.7
20,0
98.7
61.9
3 8. .7
61.2
2.5
25.0
100.0
55.6
46.2
76.2
1.2
23.7
100.0
56.9
57,5
73.7
3,7
31,2
100,0
50,6
68,7
71,2
18,7
26,2
100,0
33.7
83,7
67.5
67,5
30.0
98,7
32.5
90.0
70.0
93,7
30.0
96.2
26.2
97.5
62.5
95.0
58.5
67.5
88.3
37.9
97.5
10.4
35.6
99.6
71.3
39.4
91.4
3.1
26.6
100,0
54,4
57.5
73,7
7,9
28.7
98,3
30,8
90.4
66.7
85,4
37.4
91.3
61.2
56.3
82.3
26.7
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
95.0
83.1
80.5
51.9
85.7
61.8
95.0
78.2
58.4
43.5
90.3
63.2
98.7
86.5
51.9
37.7
97.4
71.1
95.0
85.9
58.4
22.1
93,4
76.3
89.1
84.6
72,7
11.7
92.1
82.7
84.6
84.6
67.5
6.5
86.2
85.3
78.2
81.8
61.0
9,7
68.4
93.3
79.5
68.8
59.1
22.1
65.8
97.3
77,6
65,6
63,6
20.1
71,1
81,3
69.2
75.3
60.4
47.4
52,6
71.3
71.2
76.6
67.5
58.4
46.1
52.0
84.4
76.6
70.1
66.2
50.0
56.0
96.2
82.
63.
44.
91.
65.
89.6
85.0
66.2
13.4
90.6
81.4
78,4
72,1
61.2
17.3
68.4
90.6
74.9
76.2
66.0
57.3
49,6
59.8
84.6
79.0
64.3
33.1
74.9
74.3
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
73.3
5.5
98.6
62.5
40.0
5.6
95.1
59.0
14.7
5.6
91.0
68.1
12.0
6.9
97.2
84.7
6.7
25.0
77.8
67.6
21.3
27.8
b6.9
43.7
25.3
31.9
31.9
54.9
21.3
46.5
43.1
54.9
20,0
72,2
44.4
47.9
14.7
95.8
50.7
42.0
25.3
97.2
59.7
36.2
31.5
96.6
65.3
34.8
42.7
5.6
94.9
63.2
13.3
19.9
77.3
65.3
22.2
50.2
39,8
52.6
23.8
97.2
58.6
37.7
25.5
43.2
67.6
54.7
(DECEMBER 1973)
110
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Annual
Feb.
Jan.
Apr.
Mar.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES <g)
(1967-100)
II Q
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
«••
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
112.4
129.1
116.6
94.1
116.7
124.2
110.3
93.2
122.5
119.2
101.8
92.9
119.6
120.7
91.2
94.0
110.7
119.9
89.9
98.2
108.6
121.3
67.0
101.8
84.0
109.7
121.1
88.6
112.8
80.0
111.2
121.9
93.5
127.7
80.3
115.8
120.2
95,0
142,7
81,1
122.8
118.0
91.1
148.1
101 .3
128.0
121.3
93.8
158.8
110,9
128.6
119.4
92.8
164.0
117J2
124.2
109.6
93.4
113.0
120.6
89.4
98.0
81,4
112.2
121.1
92.4
127.7
97.8
126.5
119.6
92.6
157.0
117J2
121,4
96,0
119.0
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
173.0
130.3
102.2
91.6
101.7
112.2
174.3
123.3
101.5
91,0
103,3
110.4
169.4
118.4
102.6
92.3
101.4
110.7
167.1
115.0
97.8
95.7
103.0
111.2
104.7
113.3
97.1
96.7
101.7
107.3
156.8
110.4
96.6
97.4
103.0
10". 4
139.0
108.9
95.9
96.3
106.8
104.9
134.1
108.4
95.4
95.9
108,2
107.8
132.6
108.8
93,3
97,3
109,6
109,8
135.5
105.7
90.4
99.0
108.8
109.0
133.5
105.7
92.8
99.5
110.3
111.9
133.3
104.8
92.7
99.3
113.5
112.0
172.2
124.0
102.1
91.6
102.1
111.1
162.9
112.9
97.2
96.6
102.6
107.6
135.2
108.7
94.9
96.5
108.2
107.5
134.1
105.4
92.0
99.3
110.9
111.0
151.1
112.6
96.5
96.0
105.9
109.3
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
109.0
92.8
09.2
105.3
96.9
102.5
105.6
93.0
99.1
103.9
98,9
100.2
105.3
92.2
100.7
102.0
102.7
100.0
104.3
89.8
101.7
103.4
103.7
97.9
103.4
90.2
102.4
103.7
104.0
97.4
104.0
91.7
102.8
102.3
100.6
95.0
103.4
94.3
102.8
101.2
101.3
93.8
102.7
96.0
103.3
101.7
102.5
94.1
99,6
95,9
104,7
100,6
102,5
93,6
96.5
98.9
105.4
99.3
101.9
94.5
94.5
101.4
105.5
98.1
98.5
96.0
93.9
99.9
104.4
96.4
100.6
95.4
106.6
92.7
99.7
103.7
99.5
100.9
103.9
90.6
102.3
103.1
102.8
96.8
101.9
95.4
103.6
101.2
102.1
93.8
95.0
100.1
105.1
97.9
100.3
95.3
101. a
94.7
102.7
101.5
101.2
96.7
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
95.1
98.1
110.2
120.0
106.4
99.4
94.7
08.1
110.3
122.4
104.8
99.1
94.0
Q8.5
112.7
123.0
102.1
99.7
94.1
102.0
116.2
121.0
99.7
97.9
94.8
100.5
116.4
117.8
99.2
95.7
93.5
101.0
114.8
117.9
99.4
95.2
93.8
102.1
114.1
118.3
97.9
94.0
93.8
105.3
114.7
111.3
97.7
94.5
93,7
107,8
114.3
106.5
97,4
95,7
95.9
111,6
114.5
105.9
97.3
97.1
96.9
112.7
115,0
105.5
98.7
99,9
97.3
112.1
116.6
105.4
99.7
100.3
94.6
98.2
111.1
121.8
104.4
99.4
94.1
101.2
115.8
118.9
99.4
96.3
93.8
105.1
114.4
112.7
97.7
94.7
96.7
112.1
115.4
105.6
98.6
99.1
94.8
104.2
114.2
114.8
100.0
97.4
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
103.0
118.9
105.9
110.7
105.9
119.5
107.2
113.0
106.5
118.7
107.8
117.2
108.9
118.2
110.2
119.5
110.0
117.5
108.6
124.3
111.2
114.8
106.1
123.8
112.0
112.4
104.7
123.7
114.5
111.2
106.1
124.6
116,9
110,5
107.5
124.8
115.1
109.5
107.4
128.1
115.1
108.8
106.9
131.6
116.7
106.4
106.8
134.8
105il
119.0
107.0
113.6
110.0
116.8
108.3
122.5
114.5
111.4
106,1
124,4
115.6
108.2
107.0
131.5
111.3
113.9
107.1
123.0
D23. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES— 13 INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS (PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
•. •
•. .
23il
76.9
38.5
30.8
61.5
38,5
30.8
69.2
76.9
30.8
69.2
61.5
38.5
69.2
53.8
36.5
76.9
53.8
61.5
84.6
30.8
53.8
92.3
7,7
53.8
92.3
61.5
30.8
84.6
46,2
46.2
69.2
30.8
38.5
76.9
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
84.6
23.1
30.8
30.8
65.4
42.3
76.9
30.8
61,5
38.5
84.6
61,5
53.8
26.9
50.0
84.6
46.2
61.5
69.2
38.5
11.5
84.6
76.9
42.3
53.8
69.2
61.5
53.8
61.5
30.8
19.2
38.5
3P.5
53.8
69.2
30.8
0.0
61.5
53.8
38.5
76.9
46.2
7.7
42.3
26.9
38.5
61.5
61.5
7.7
30,8
23,1
65,4
46,2
69.2
69.2
38.5
38.5
69.2
38.5
38.5
23.1
30.8
69.2
53.8
46.2
46.2
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
30.8
38.5
38.5
69.2
36.5
53.8
23.1
46.2
53.8
42.3
84.6
46.2
53.8
46.2
61.5
38.5
64.6
46.2
57.7
38.5
61.5
53.8
76.9
42.3
38.5
69.2
53.8
46.2
53.8
42.3
38.5
53.8
65.4
46.2
57.7
46.2
34.6
96.2
38.5
42.3
38.5
23.1
30.8
53.8
53.8
30.8
46.2
30.8
11.5
42,3
69.2
38.5
57,7
50,0
23.1
53, 8
46.2
23.1
34.6
53.8
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
61.5
53.8
53.8
61,5
46.2
46,2
46.2
53.8
30.8
76.9
53.8
46.2
50.0
46.2
69.2
46.2
23.1
53.8
46.2
65.4
76.9
30.8
23.1
46.2
46.2
30.8
53.8
42.3
61.5
53.8
69.2
53.8
57.7
46.2
69.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
46.2
61.5
30.8
46.2
38.5
76.9
42.3
26.9
53.8
65.4
69,2
69,2
50,0
0,0
19,2
57,7
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
53.8
50,0
46.2
65.4
61.5
30.8
61.5
73.1
46.2
57.7
80.8
76.9
65.4
61.5
80.8
65.4
57.7
53.8
38.5
76.9
76.9
19.2
46.2
73.1
61.5
46.2
57.7
61.5
76.9
42.3
61.5
65.4
57,7
46.2
53,8
50,0
1948...
1949...
1950...
28 '.2
69.2
64.1
35.9
71.8
30.8
56.4
89.7
46.2
38.5
76.9
39! 8
76.9
61.5
38.5
38.5
50.0
57.7
42.3
71.8
26.9
47.4
51.3
65.4
55.1
47.4
48.7
37.2
64.1
69.2
34.6
5.1
44.9
34.6
47.5
61.5
59.0
51.3
35.9
48.7
57.7
47.5
42.3
43.9
39.1
42.0
55.1
60.9
47.3
7.7
73.1
46.2
23.1
15.4
53.8
46.2
38.5
61.5
15.4
69.2
53.8
35.9
43.6
51.3
50.0
69.2
48.7
44.9
53.8
60.2
48.7
62.8
43.6
25.6
64.1
53.8
37.2
47,5
34.6
25.7
55.1
51.3
20.5
39.7
53.8
33.0
54.2
54.2
39.1
54.8
45.2
69.2
73.1
15.4
19.2
46.2
69.2
50.0
61.5
34.6
30.8
46.2
69.2
57.7
38.5
61.5
57.7
61.5
38.5
52.6
51.3
51.3
61.5
41.0
48.7
53.9
50.0
62.8
39.8
51.3
50.0
51.3
64.1
46.2
29.5
34.6
56.4
59.0
57.7
37.2
35.9
51.3
59.0
54.2
55.8
49.4
41.7
44.6
53.5
46.2
30.8
46.2
61.5
50,0
42.3
34.6
65.4
50.0
19.2
61.5
69.2
53.8
46.2
62.8
71.8
66.7
44.8
55.2
71.3
65.4
44.9
57.7
59.0
48.7
30.8
47.4
65.4
58.6
41.7
55.8
67.0
12.8
66.6
100.0
3o!l
92.9
D23. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES— 13 INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS (PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS)
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
7.7
69.2
100.0
30.8
38.5
53.8
65.4
46.2
0.0
69.2
7.7
84.6
23.1
92.3
7.7
100.0
46.2
15.4
100.0
76.9
30.8
15.4
76.9
61.5
42.3
46.2
23.1
15.4
84.6
69.2
46.2
30.8
30.8
30.8
69.2
69.2
46.2
23.1
30.8
15.4
61.5
76.9
53.8
23.1
23.1
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
38.5
23.1
100.0
30,8
53,8
100,0
23.1
38.5
38.5
61.5
76.9
53.8
15.4
38.5
30.8
53.8
84.6
46.2
15.4
38,5
23.1
61.5
84.6
30.8
38.5
23.1
100.0
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
* .* !•
7.7
69.2
100.0
7,7
76.9
100.0
5.'!
74.3
15!4
97.4
15.4
30.8
23.1
53.8
76.9
38.5
15.4
46.2
38.5
61.5
69.2
53.8
30.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
53.8
53.8
74.4
28.2
23.1
71.8
65.4
44.9
25.7
28.2
25.7
66.6
74.3
51.3
18.0
38.5
30.8
58.9
82.0
43.6
20.5
38.5
35.9
58.9
66.6
48.7
34.6
33.4
28.9
64.1
72.1
47.1
23.1
53.8
100.0
35.9
33.3
100.0
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
30,8
23.1
69.2
46.2
61.5
38.5
34.6
38.5
69.2
38.5
53.8
30.8
38.5
53.8
61.5
46.2
61.5
30.8
30.8
76.9
69.2
30.8
61.5
38.5
23.1
76.9
61.5
38.5
76.9
23.1
23.1
76.9
69.2
38.5
53.8
15.4
23.1
76.9
61.5
30.8
53.8
30.8
15.4
84.6
46.2
30.8
53.8
38.5
23,1
69.2
61,5
38.5
53.8
38.5
23.1
76.9
53.8
38.5
53.8
53.8
23.1
73.1
46.2
46.2
53.8
46.2
15.4
61.5
46.2
38.5
46.2
61.5
34.6
38.5
66.6
43.6
58.9
33.4
25.7
76.9
66.6
35.9
64.1
25.7
20.5
76,9
56.4
33.4
53.8
35.9
20.5
70.5
48.7
41.1
51.3
53.8
25.3
65.7
59.6
38.5
57.0
37.2
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966 .
1967.
1968.
61,5
61,5
69.2
53. 8
0.0
30.8
69.2
69.2
76.9
61.5
15.4
46.2
61.5
69.2
61.5
61.5
26.9
46.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
53 . 8
30.8
53.8
65.4
76.9
53.8
30 8
61.5
80.8
53.8
61.5
84.6
46.2
61.5
76.9
46.2
61.5
69,2
46,2
53.8
69.2
46.2
61,5
76,9
38,5
23.1
73.1
23.1
76.9
30.8
57.7
46,2
76,9
38^5
92!3
30 ',8
92,3
64.1
66.6
69.2
58 . 9
14.1
41.1
65.4
78.2
58.9
33 . 3
25.7
62.6
61.5
76.9
46.2
7 7
33 '.4
70.5
64.1
71.8
46.2
61.5
76.9
69.2
53.8
0.0
30.8
84.6
33 ".4
89.7
63.8
73.4
55.1
25 . 0
26.6
66.0
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
84.6
61.5
46.2
76.9
80.8
42,3
46,2
76,9
76.9
38.5
46.2
84.6
69.2
34.6
61.5
92.3
76.9
34.6
69.2
84.6
92.3
38.5
69.2
84.6
76.9
19.2
53.8
76.9
76.9
15.4
53.8
61.5
69,2
15.4
46.2
69,2
69.2
15.4
53.8
76.9
69,2
30,8
80,8
84,6
76.9
46.2
84.6
88.5
80.8
47.4
46.2
79.5
79.5
35.9
66.6
87.2
74.3
16.7
51.3
69.2
71.8
30.8
73.1
83.3
76.6
32.7
59.3
79.8
23)1
(DECEMBER 1973)
111
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Sept.
Aug.
July
Oct.
Nov.
1 Q
Dec.
II Q
93. FREE RESERVES ®
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
III
Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
996
1,126
744
938
669
900
720
807
602
560
600
614
766
505
698
552
546
655
571
631
707
700
608
593
373
806
677
599
601
624
749
816
650
752
658
700
1,056
807
689
722
910
623
701
765
673
750
861
483
675
736
798
756
847
669
699
756
783
706
816
775
575
643
576
655
677
586
1,157
743
762
663
685
885
627
813
681
683
605
723
564
751
678
684
622
639
811
769
720
743
873
592
810
714
707
675
726
749
753
762
697
696
706
676
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
613
723
-64Q
836
369
-255
298
330
-672
339
270
-267
471
578
-614
503
122
-409
672
283
-631
626
95
-533
152
65
-353
561
212
-504
664
130
365
711
168
-195
562
-468
366
770
92
-139
412
-383
-7
725
-189
-339
383
95
250
708
-286
-214
821
-400
390
638
-359
-195
389
-875
198
650
-492
-154
169
-870
252
457
-245
-36
461
544
-642
559
254
-310
496
159
-206
633
158
-411
452
-252
203
734
-128
-231
460
-715
280
582
-365
-128
467
-66
-91
627
-20
-270
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
116
122
-59
-375
696
555
-126
324
-48
-365
517
434
-316
495
-140
-219
486
382
-504
492
-259
-194
551
441
-444
547
-319
-33
453
440
-508
484
-513
37
549
391
-383
547
-556
120
530
440
-471
382
-536
247
537
439
-466
95
-493
414
547
375
-344
96
-459
480
442
419
-293
20
-433
614
517
473
-133
-41
-424
669
419
268
-109
314
.62
-320
566
497
-485
508
-364
-63
518
424
-440
341
-528
260
538
418
-257
25
-439
588
459
387
-323
297
-353
116
520
421
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
375
175
106
-44
-16
144
301
89
36
-107
-4
38
269
99
-75
-246
236
-315
313
167
-105
-268
175
-413
247
82
-180
-352
269
-326
138
120
-182
-352
297
-341
161
135
-174
-362
272
-226
133
83
-134
-390
298
-190
91
89
-144
-368
268
-132
94
106
-146
-431
160
-167
33
-34
-63
-222
270
-245
209
168
-2
-165
107
-310
315
121
22
-132
72
-44
233
123
-156
-324
247
-360
128
102
-151
-373
279
-183
112
80
-77
-273
179
-241
197
107
-90
-276
194
-207
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
-480
-799
-91
153
-596
-819
-127
91
-701
-781
-120
134
-844
-704
-8
27
-1,102
-795
-18
-15
-1,064
-701
-322
110
-1,074
-1,217
-658
-55
-946
-682
-606
-183
-831
-335
-295
-352
-992
-208
-153
-327
-988
-305
-144
-292
-829
-49
58
-830
-592
-800
-113
126
-1,003
-733
-116
41
-950
-745
-520
-197
-936
-187
-60
-483
-871
-616
-207
-126
132. UNITED KINGDOM— INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES
(1967-100)
®
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
t..
•. *
1948.
1949.
1950.
48
51
53
49
51
53
49
51
53
50
51
53
50
52
53
51
52
53
50
52
53
50
52
53
50
52
53
50
52
54
51
52
54
51
53
54
49
51
53
50
52
53
50
52
53
51
52
54
"so
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
55
62
65
65
68
71
55
62
65
65
68
71
55
62
65
66
68
72
56
63
66
66
69
74
58
63
65
66
69
73
58
64
66
66
70
73
59
64
66
68
70
73
59
64
65
67
69
73
60
63
65
67
70
73
60
64
65
67
71
74
60
64
65
68
72
74
61
64
65
68
72
74
55
62
65
65
68
71
57
63
66
66
69
73
59
64
65
67
70
73
60
64
65
68
72
74
58
63
65
67
70
73
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
74
77
79
78
80
84
74
77
79
78
80
84
74
77
79
78
80
84
74
78
78
79
61
85
75
78
78
79
81
86
75
79
78
79
82
86
76
77
78
79
82
86
76
77
78
79
83
85
76
77
78
79
82
85
76
78
78
79
83
8*
77
78
78
80
83
85
77
79
79
80
84
86
74
77
79
78
60
B4
75
78
78
79
81
86
76
77
78
79
82
85
77
78
78
80
83
85
75
78
78
79
82
85
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
86
88
92
96
99
102
87
88
92
96
99
102
87
88
92
96
99
103
87
89
94
97
100
105
87
90
94
98
100
105
87
90
94
98
100
105
87
90
94
98
100
105
86
90
95
96
100
105
87
90
95
96
100
105
87
90
95
98
100
106
87
91
95
99
101
106
87
91
96
99
101
108
87
88
92
96
99
102
87
90
94
96
100
105
67
90
95
98
100
105
87
91
95
99
101
107
87
90
94
98
100
105
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
108
114
123
133
109
114
124
134
109
115
125
134
110
117
128
136
110
117
128
136
111
117
129
137
110
118
130
138
110
118
130
139
111
119
130
139
112
120
131
141
112
121
132
142
113
121
132
143
109
114
124
134
110
117
128
136
110
118
130
139
112
121
132
142
110
118
128
138
133. CANADA—INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES
(1967-100)
52
53
©
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
..•
...
1948.
1949.
1950.
62
67
67
63
67
67
63
67
68
64
67
68
64
6*'
68
65
67 i
68
66
67
69
66
67
70
67
67
70
67
66
71
67
66
71
67
67
72
63
67
67
64
67
68
66
67
70
67
68
71
*65
67
69
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
72
79
78
78
78
78
73
79
77
78
78
78
74
78
77
77
78
78
75
78
77
78
78
78
75
78
77
77
78
78
76
78
77
"8
IB
TV
77
78
77
78
78
79
77
78
78
79
78
80
76
78
76
76
78
80
79
76
78
78
76
80
79
78
78
78
76
81
79
78
78
78
78
81
73
79
77
78
78
78
75
78
77
78
78
78
77
78
78
78
78
80
79
78
78
78
78
81
76
78
78
78
78
79
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
81
83
85
86
87
67
81
83
84
85
87
87
81
83
84
85
87
87
81
84
84
86
87
87
81
84
84
85
87
87
82
84
85
86
87
88
82
84
85
86
87
88
82
84
85
86
87
88
83
84
85
86
87
88
83
85
66
87
87
88
83
85
86
87
87
89
63
85
86
87
87
89
81
83
64
85
87
P7
81
84
84
86
87
87
82
84
85
86
87
88
83
85
86
87
87
89
82
84
85
86
87
88
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
89
90
92
95
98
102
89
90
92
95
98
102
89
90
92
96
98
103
89
91
92
96
99
103
89
91
93
96
99
103
89
91
93
96
100
104
90
91
94
97
101
104
90
91
94
97
101
105
90
91
93
97
101
105
90
91
93
98
101
105
90
91
94
98
101
106
90
92
94
98
102
106
69
9Q
92
95
98
102
89
91
93
96
99
103
90
91
94
97
101
105
90
91
94
98
101
106
90
91
93
97
100
104
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
106
111
113
118
106
112
113
119
107
112
114
119
108
112
115
120
108
112
115
120
109
113
115
120
110
113
116
122
110
113
117
122
110
113
117
123
11C
113
117
123
110
113
117
123
111
113
118
124
106
112
113
119
108
112
115
120
110
113
117
122
110
113
117
123
109
112
116
121
(DECEMBER 1973)
112
C. Historical Data for Selected Series —Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
May
June
July Aug.
135. WEST GERMANY— INDEX OK CONSUMER PRICES
{1967-100)
Sept.
Oct. Nov.
1Q
Dec.
II Q
III Q
IV Q
©
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
...
•. •
1949.
1950.
76
70
75
70
75
69
74
69
74
68
67
74
68
70
73
68
72
72
68
74
72
69
77
72
69
76
73
69
77
72
70
*75
70
'74
68
72
72
68
77
72
69
*74
69
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
70
77
75
74
75
77
71
77
75
74
75
77
73
76
75
75
75
78
74
76
75
75
75
78
74
75
75
75
75
78
75
75
75
75
75
78
75
75
75
75
76
78
75
75
75
75
75
78
75
75
74
75
75
78
76
75
74
75
76
78
77
75
74
75
77
79
77
76
74
75
77
79
71
77
75
74
75
77
74
75
75
75
75
78
75
75
75
75
75
78
77
75
74
75
77
79
74
76
75
75
76
78
1957.
1958.
1959.
1961.
1962.
79
81
81
83
84
87
79
81
81
83
84
87
79
31
81
83
84
88
79
81
81
83
84
88
79
82
81
83
85
88
79
82
82
83
86
89
80
82
82
83
86
89
79
81
83
83
86
88
79
80
82
83
85
88
80
80
83
83
35
86
80
81
83
83
86
88
80
81
83
83
86
88
79
81
81
83
84
87
79
82
81
83
85
88
79
81
82
83
86
88
80
81
83
83
86
88
79
81
82
83
85
86
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
90
92
93
97
100
102
91
92
93
98
100
102
92
92
94
98
100
102
92
92
94
99
100
102
91
92
95
99
100
102
91
92
96
99
100
102
91
92
96
99
100
102
90
92
96
99
100
101
90
92
96
99
100
101
91
92
96
99
100
10?
91
93
96
99
100
103
91
93
97
100
100
103
91
92
93
98
100
102
91
92
95
99
100
102
90
92
96
99
100
101
91
93
96
99
100
103
91
92
95
99
100
102
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
104
107
111
118
104
108
112
119
105
108
113
119
105
108
114
120
105
109
114
120
105
109
115
121
105
109
115
122
105
109
lib
122
105
109
116
123
105
109
116
124
106
110
117
124
107
110
117
125
10H
108
112
119
105
109
114
120
105
109
115
122
106
110
117
124
105
109
115
121
I960.
136. FRANCE— INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES
(1967-100)
®
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
1948.
1949.
1950.
32
44
44
35
42
45
34
40
44
34
39
45
35
39
44
35
39
43
35
38
43
39
39
45
41
41
46
43
43
47
42
43
48
43
44
48
34
42
44
35
39
44
38
39
45
43
43
48
*37
41
45
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
49
60
59
58
59
60
50
61
60
59
59
60
50
60
59
59
59
60
51
60
59
58
59
60
53
59
59
59
59
61
53
58
59
59
59
60
53
58
59
58
58
60
54
59
58
58
58
60
54
60
58
59
61
56
59
58
58
60
60
57
59
58
59
60
60
58
59
58
59
60
60
50
bO
59
59
59
60
52
59
59
59
59
60
54
59
58
58
58
60
57
59
58
59
60
60
53
59
59
5b
59
60
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
61
69
75
79
80
84
61
70
76
79
80
84
61
71
76
79
80
84
61
72
76
79
80
84
60
72
75
79
80
85
61
72
75
79
80
85
62
72
76
79
81
86
62
73
76
80
81
85
63
73
76
80
81
86
64
73
77
80
82
86
66
73
78
80
83
87
67
73
78
80
84
87
61
70
76
79
80
84
61
72
75
79
80
85
62
73
76
80
81
86
66
73
78
80
83
87
62
72
76
79
81
85
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
67
92
94
96
99
103
88
92
94
96
99
103
88
92
94
96
99
103
88
92
94
97
99
103
89
92
94
97
99
104
89
92
96
97
99
104
90
92
95
97
100
104
90
92
95
98
100
105
91
93
95
98
100
105
91
93
95
98
101
107
91
93
95
98
102
107
91
93
96
98
102
107
88
92
94
96
99
103
89
92
95
97
99
104
90
92
95
98
100
105
91
93
95
98
102
107
89
92
95
97
100
105
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
108
114
120
127
109
115
121
128
109
115
121
128
110
116
122
129
110
117
123
130
111
117
123
130
111
118
124
131
111
118
124
132
112
118
125
133
113
119
126
134
113
119
126
135
113
120
127
136
109
115
121
128
110
117
123
130
111
118
124
132
113
119
126
135
111
117
124
131
137. ITALY— INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES
(1967-100)
58
@
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
•. .
1948.
1949.
1950.
55
56
54
54
56
54
56
56
53
56
57
54
55
57
54
55
57
55
52
55
55
54
56
56
56
55
57
55
54
56
55
54
57
56
54
57
55
56
5H
55
57
54
54
55
56
55
54
57
«*•
'55
56
55
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
58
61
64
64
67
69
59
62
64
65
67
69
59
62
64
65
67
70
60
63
64
65
67
70
60
63
65
66
67
70
61
63
65
66
67
70
61
63
64
66
67
70
61
63
64
66
67
70
61
64
64
66
67
70
61
64
64
66
68
70
62
64
64
66
68
70
62
64
64
66
69
71
59
62
64
65
67
69
60
63
65
66
67
70
61
63
64
66
67
70
62
64
64
66
68
70
60
63
64
66
67
70
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
71
72
72
74
75
77
71
72
72
74
75
78
70
72
72
74
75
78
70
73
72
74
75
79
70
73
72
74
75
79
70
74
72
74
75
79
71
73
72
74
76
79
71
73
72
74
76
80
71
73
72
74
76
80
71
73
73
74
76
80
72
73
73
75
77
83
72
72
74
75
77
82
71
72
72
74
75
78
70
73
72
74
75
79
71
73
72
74
76
80
72
73
73
75
77
82
71
73
72
74
76
80
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
83
88
93
96
99
101
84
88
93
96
99
101
84
89
93
96
99
101
85
89
94
96
99
101
85
89
94
96
100
101
85
90
94
96
100
101
85
91
95
96
100
101
85
91
95
96
100
101
86
91
95
96
101
101
87
92
95
97
101
101
87
92
95
97
101
102
88
93
96
98
101
102
84
08
93
96
99
101
85
89
94
96
100
101
85
91
95
96
100
101
87
92
95
97
101
102
85
90
94
96
100
101
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
102
107
112
117
102
107
113
118
103
108
113
118
103
108
113
119
103
109
114
120
104
109
114
120
104
109
114
121
105
109
115
122
105
110
115
123
105
111
116
124
106
111
117
125
106
112
117
126
1C2
107
113
118
103
109
114
120
105
109
115
122
106
111
117
125
104
10*
114
121
NOTE:
These ser:
(DECEMBER 1973)
113
C. Historical Data for Selected Series —Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Annual
Jan. Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
May
June
July
Sept.
Aug.
138. JAPAN—INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES
(1967-100)
Oct. Nov.
II Q
IQ
Dec.
®
I I IQ
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
.• •
•. •
1948. .
1949. .
1950. .
31
48
49
30
49
47
34
50
46
35
51
44
37
52
45
41
51
43
40
49
45
44
48
45
46
46
45
43
48
44
44
47
45
45
48
47
32
49
47
38
51
44
43
48
45
44
48
45
*39
49
45
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
.
.
.
.
.
.
49
55
56
62
62
61
51
55
57
63
62
62
53
55
57
63
61
62
53
55
56
63
62
62
52
55
58
63
62
62
52
54
59
63
61
63
51
55
59
63
61
61
53
55
59
62
61
62
54
55
61
62
61
62
55
55
63
63
62
63
55
55
62
62
61
62
55
55
62
61
61
63
51
55
57
63
62
62
52
55
58
63
62
62
53
55
60
62
61
62
55
55
62
62
61
63
53
55
59
62
61
62
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
.
.
.
.
.
.
63
64
65
67
69
75
63
64
65
67
69
75
63
63
65
67
70
75
63
64
65
68
71
76
64
64
65
68
70
77
64
65
65
68
71
77
64
64
65
68
71
77
65
65
66
68
72
76
64
65
66
66
72
76
65
66
66
69
74
77
64
66
66
66
74
77
64
65
66
68
74
78
63
64
65
67
69
75
64
64
65
68
71
77
64
65
66
68
72
76
64
66
66
68
74
77
64
65
65
66
71
76
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
.
.
.
.
.
.
79
83
90
94
99
104
80
83
90
95
99
104
81
84
91
95
100
105
82
85
93
97
100
105
83
86
91
96
99
105
84
86
91
96
98
104
84
86
91
96
98
105
62
86
91
96
99
104
83
86
93
97
101
108
83
88
94
97
103
106
83
87
93
97
103
108
83
87
93
96
103
107
eo
83
«3
90
95
99
1C4
86
92
96
99
105
83
86
92
96
99
106
83
87
93
97
103
108
82
86
92
96
100
106
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
.
.
.
.
.
108
116
125
130
108
117
125
130
109
118
125
131
110
119
127
132
110
118
127
133
110
117
127
133
113
118
127
133
113
118
126
134
114
122
131
135
114
124
131
136
114
123
129
135
114
124
129
137
108
117
125
130
110
118
127
133
113
119
128
134
114
124
130
136
111
120
127
133
19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS
(1967-100)
©
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
15
20
17
16
17
18
15
20
17
15
16
19
15
19
16
16
16
19
16
20
16
17
16
19
16
20
16
18
16
20
16
20
16
18
15
20
16
20
17
18
16
19
16
19
17
17
17
20
17
16
16
17
17
21
18
16
17
18
17
22
19
16
17
17
18
22
19
16
16
17
18
21
.1.5
20
17
16
16
19
16
20
16
18
16
20
16
18
17
17
17
20
19
16
17
17
18
22
16
18
16
17
17
20
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
23
26
28
28
39
48
24
26
28
28
40
48
24
26
28
29
40
52
24
26
27
30
41
52
24
26
27
31
41
51
23
27
26
32
43
50
24
27
26
33
46
53
25
27
27
33
46
53
26
27
25
34
43
51
25
26
26
35
46
50
25
27
27
36
49
50
25
28
27
38
49
51
24
26
28
28
40
49
24
26
27
31
42
51
25
27
26
33
47
52
25
27
27
36
48
50
24
27
27
32
44
51
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
49
45
61
63
65
75
47
45
60
61
68
76
48
46
61
60
70
76
49
46
62
61
72
74
51
48
63
60
72
69
52
49
63
62
71
61
53
50
65
61
71
62
50
52
65
61
74
64
46
53
62
60
73
63
45
55
62
58
74
61
44
57
62
60
77
65
44
58
64
62
78
68
48
45
61
61
68
76
51
48
63
61
72
68
50
52
64
61
73
63
44
57
63
60
76
65
46
50
62
61
72
63
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
71
83
94
102
92
103
72
84
94
101
95
99
71
86
94
97
97
97
75
87
96
100
99
104
76
88
97
94
101
106
76
87
93
94
99
109
75
91
92
93
101
109
77
89
94
83
103
107
79
91
97
85
104
110
79
92
99
84
104
113
79
93
100
86
101
115
81
91
100
88
104
116
71
«4
94
100
95
100
76
87
95
96
100
106
77
90
94
89
103
109
80
92
100
87
103
115
76
88
96
93
100
107
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
111
98
102
112
110
95
106
114
108
96
108
117
110
93
112
118
114
83
111
117
108
82
108
118
103
82
108
117
102
85
106
121
103
90
108
119
104
92
106
119
105
92
101
125
99
98
108
128
110
96
105
114
111
66
110
118
103
86
107
119
103
94
105
124
106
90
107
119
142. UNITED KINGDOM— INDEX OF STOCK PRICES ©
(1967-100)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
33
36
39
34
31
28
31
37
40
34
30
29
32
37
39
32
28
30
32
37
38
32
28
29
32
37
32
32
28
30
32
35
33
32
29
31
34
36
33
33
27
31
34
38
34
34
28
31
33
39
36
33
29
31
...
34
39
34
33
28
32
37
39
33
30
29
32
36
34
32
23
30
34
38
34
33
28
31
36
37
33
30
30
35
41
50
50
36
28
32
42
54
47
36
27
32
43
58
46
34
29
33
45
57
48
35
31
34
47
53
48
36
31
35
48
52
47
37
31
36
51
51
47
33
31
36
50
50
43
33
31
36
51
52
46
32
30
33
38
50
47
36
29
32
42
54
48
35
30
34
47
54
48
34
31
36
51
51
45
34
30
34
44
52
47
49
45
62
86
95
80
52
47
65
81
97
84
52
46
67
84
96
76
53
50
67
82
88
73
53
50
66
82
86
75
52
53
71
86
62
82
47
55
70
86
81
80
44
57
80
87
79
80
45
57
8?
32
80
85
44
61
88
83
81
85
49
44
61
86
91
81
52
48
66
82
94
73
51
53
69
85
83
79
44
58
83
84
80
83
49
51
70
84
87
80
87
96
96
101
89
118
89
99
92
99
90
120
90
100
92
98
95
133
91
99
94
101
97
139
90
98
90
102
97
142
91
101
87
98
99
150
94
102
88
87
100
154
96
102
90
86
106
158
98
100
96
85
111
153
99
96
98
33
115
154
101
92
96
85
113
158
87
98
94
99
69
118
90
99
92
100
96
138
94
102
88
90
102
154
99
96
97
84
113
155
93
99
93
94
100
141
159
135
122
180
153
131
120
186
151
129
131
191
143
116
146
194
133
113
147
184
128
115
157
187
128
118
158
195
130
120
164
185
127
128
160
180
129
120
156
186
132
121
165
191
159
135
122
16Q
142
119
141
190
129
118
160
189
129
123
160
186
140
124
146
186
1945. . .
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
34
40
36
34
28
34
38
32
33
29
34
38
33
31
28
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
32
31
32
38
54
49
33
30
33
38
48
45
32
29
34
39
49
46
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
49
45
60
87
87
81
49
43
61
85
91
82
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
85
99
93
98
89
115
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
165
139
123
175
31
33
(DECEMBER 1973)
114
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Sept.
Aug.
143. CANADA— INDEX OF STOCK PRICES
(1967-100)
Nov.
Oct.
1 Q
Dec.
II Q
©
IIIQ
IVQ
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
•• •
...
'21
1948..
1949..
1950..
20
21
22
18
20
22
18
19
22
20
19
23
22
19
24
22
18
24
22
19
23
21
20
26
21
20
27
22
21
28
22
22
28
22
22
28
19
20
22
21
19
24
21
20
25
22
22
28
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
30
36
34
30
41
51
33
36
33
32
42
51
32
35
33
32
42
55
33
35
31
34
43
56
33
33
31
35
44
55
32
34
30
35
47
55
32
35
31
35
49
57
34
35
31
36
49
59
36
34
29
37
51
56
37
32
29
37
46
54
35
33
30
39
49
52
35
33
29
41
50
54
32
36
33
31
42
52
33
34
31
35
45
55
34
35
30
36
50
57
36
33
29
39
49
53
34
34
31
35
46
55
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
55
44
57
58
62
75
52
44
59
55
64
75
53
45
59
53
67
76
56
46
59
55
70
75
58
47
59
56
73
71
58
49
59
56
72
63
57
50
62
55
74
62
52
52
60
56
76
66
49
53
56
56
76
64
44
55
56
54
73
62
44
56
56
56
74
66
44
61
59
58
75
68
53
44
58
55
64
75
57
47
59
56
72
70
53
52
59
56
75
64
44
57
57
56
74
65
52
50
58
56
71
69
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
71
80
99
103
94
101
71
80
100
102
96
95
71
82
101
99
97
92
74
66
103
101
99
98
76
90
104
97
99
99
75
90
99
97
99
100
73
93
94
96
101
104
72
92
96
92
104
103
74
93
99
67
106
106
75
96
100
85
103
108
75
97
101
87
101
109
76
95
98
89
101
112
71
«1
100
101
96
96
75
89
102
98
99
99
73
93
96
92
104
104
75
96
100
87
102
110
74
90
100
9b
100
102
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
114
115
108
117
114
113
108
119
111
116
109
121
114
113
112
121
120
97
108
123
112
94
109
127
107
93
109
126
106
95
107
134
109
99
108
133
110
101
100
133
114
100
98
134
114
104
107
141
113
115
108
119
115
101
110
124
107
96
108
131
113
102
102
136
112
103
107
127
145. WEST GERMANY— INDEX OF STOCK PRICES
(1967-100)
©
20
25
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1950...
12
12
11
12
11
12
12
12
13
13
12
13
12
12
12
13
*12
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
13
26
19
22
37
43
14
25
19
23
37
41
15
23
18
23
39
41
15
23
18
23
43
42
15
21
18
23
43
41
16
20
18
25
43
40
16
20
18
27
45
39
17
20
19
28
46
38
19
21
20
29
46
39
21
20
21
31
43
40
23
19
21
33
41
39
23
19
21
35
43
39
14
25
19
23
38
42
15
21
IP
24
43
41
17
20
19
28
46
39
22
19
21
33
42
39
17
21
19
27
42
40
1957.
1958.
1959.
1961.
1962.
40
43
66
112
149
137
39
44
68
113
148
135
39
44
68
111
146
134
40
46
72
115
149
129
39
46
77
123
157
119
38
48
65
143
158
107
39
49
97
154
145
104
40
53
109
168
138
100
41
57
103
168
132
99
41
60
98
161
135
90
41
64
104
154
144
101
42
63
108
151
139
106
39
44
67
112
148
135
39
47
78
12?
155
116
40
53
103
163
138
101
41
62
103
155
139
99
40
51
88
139
145
113
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
102
122
121
106
88
123
100
124
118
107
93
125
100
129
115
106
95
124
102
128
115
104
94
129
111
126
112
100
93
131
113
123
109
95
92
135
113
125
108
89
93
137
117
128
110
90
104
138
120
129
110
92
108
134
118
124
107
90
108
137
115
121
104
88
115
134
116
121
102
88
116
131
101
125
118
106
92
124
109
126
112
100
93
132
117
127
109
90
102
136
116
122
104
89
113
134
111
125
111
96
100
132
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
136
152
125
137
137
149
134
146
138
147
137
152
139
147
135
157
145
135
138
161
147
129
137
159
142
127
135
159
148
133
136
165
150
126
129
160
156
126
124
155
164
121
124
156
159
119
133
155
137
149
132
145
144
137
137
159
147
129
133
161
160
122
127
155
147
134
132
155
I960.
146. FRANCE— INDEX OF STOCK PRICES <u)
(1967-100)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
14
22
24
25
22
15
21
23
23
21
15
22
24
21
22
14
20
23
22
21
17
20
22
21
21
18
23
21
21
22
19
23
24
22
20
20
26
24
23
22
20
26
26
23
23
22
25
2b
22
22
23
26
25
21
22
26
24
25
22
20
15
22
24
23
22
16
21
22
21
21
20
25
25
23
22
24
25
26
22
21
19
23
24
22
22
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
22
35
37
42
68
67
25
37
37
41
68
66
25
35
36
43
76
69
25
35
36
45
77
73
25
33
36
46
67
73
26
36
37
47
68
77
26
36
38
51
71
84
29
36
38
56
71
81
31
35
39
59
75
81
31
35
39
61
71
81
30
34
39
68
66
71
31
35
39
73
69
78
24
36
37
42
71
67
25
35
36
47
71
74
29
36
38
55
72
82
31
35
39
67
69
77
27
35
38
53
71
75
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
78
99
94
120
149
158
84
89
94
126
157
175
93
83
94
122
164
184
95
84
100
130
165
184
104
85
107
132
166
168
108
81
107
138
161
159
117
79
114
142
152
164
117
8i
117
149
153
162
111
84
117
141
148
163
102
82
126
135
149
155
104
81
132
142
159
164
99
81
133
138
163
159
85
9Q
94
123
157
172
102
83
105
133
164
170
115
61
116
144
151
163
102
61
130
138
157
159'
101
84
111
135
157
166
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
156
141
123
126
98
105
151
132
119
121
101
103
151
127
125
116
97
112
145
127
123
113
94
116
142
120
121
109
98
110
138
113
116
109
97
106
144
128
112
107
93
101
150
128
116
107
98
104
143
121
115
100
109
104
139
124
112
99
108
102
133
126
111
106
105
104
134
126
115
101
101
107
153
133
122
121
99
107
142
120
120
110
96
111
146
126
114
105
100
103
135
125
113
102
105
104
144
126
117
110
100
106
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972,
1973.
112
153
136
128
126
149
139
130
136
146
137
140
134
140
137
147
142
136
141
155
130
132
140
147
127
136
141
156
133
138
135
162
133
135
128
163
142
137
118
164
140
134
124
153
145
135
124
149
125
149
137
133
135
136
139
150
131
136
135
160
142
135
122
155
133
139
133
150
(DECEMBER 1973)
115
C. Historical Data for Selected Series —Continued
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Annual
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr.
147.
May
June
July
Aug.
ITALY— INDEX OF STOCK PRICES
(1967-100)
Sept.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
1 Q
II Q
III Q
IV Q
@
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
§
1949..
1950..
26
25
28
24
27
23
27
24
24
23
22
22
23
22
24
23
24
24
24
26
23
26
24
25
27
24
24
23
24
23
24
26
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
25
28
39
37
53
57
26
30
38
38
53
58
27
30
37
38
51
56
26
29
35
36
50
53
26
28
36
37
52
55
25
29
35
38
56
52
26
30
36
40
60
54
26
31
38
42
64
57
27
32
38
43
65
56
27
34
36
44
63
56
27
36
37
46
62
57
27
36
37
48
59
58
26
29
38
38
52
57
26
29
35
37
53
53
26
31
37
42
63
56
27
35
37
46
61
57
26
31
37
41
57
56
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
58
62
75
121
158
152
61
62
78
120
167
152
62
61
82
118
164
154
62
60
90
122
165
148
63
61
91
129
175
149
64
59
95
144
179
139
63
60
102
150
166
137
65
62
111
177
166
137
63
63
104
189
159
132
64
65
104
171
164
120
65
69
111
154
166
127
61
71
115
144
156
137
60
62
78
120
163
153
63
60
92
132
173
145
64
62
106
172
164
135
63
68
110
156
162
128
63
63
96
145
165
140
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
131
HI
83
109
105
99
121
105
88
114
105
97
119
99
98
116
94
99
124
90
97
107
95
101
124
96
95
106
98
100
129
87
91
106
96
98
124
85
88
108
96
100
121
64
93
109
99
102
116
93
91
107
103
101
112
93
91
110
106
97
116
90
91
109
103
94
118
86
96
107
100
99
124
105
90
113
101
98
126
91
94
106
96
loo
120
87
91
108
99
101
115
90
93
109
103
97
121
93
92
109
100
99
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
100
116
91
78
96
116
94
76
100
116
93
74
112
120
89
79
113
112
85
80
111
106
83
78
108
103
83
80
112
107
82
80
113
103
78
79
120
101
78
81
121
96
75
86
115
94
77
86
99
116
93
76
112
113
86
79
111
104
81
80
119
97
77
84
110
108
84
80
148. JAPAN— INDEX OF STOCK PRICES
(1967"100)
®
25
24
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1948.
1949.
1950.
3
9
7
4
8
6
5
10
7
5
11
7
4
12
7
4
11
6
4
10
7
4
11
8
4
12
8
4
10
8
5
9
8
7
8
7
4
9
7
4
11
7
4
11
8
5
9
6
4
10
7
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
8
13
29
26
26
30
8
13
31
25
27
30
9
13
25
24
25
31
9
14
23
23
25
33
9
15
25
23
25
34
9
17
24
24
25
36
9
18
25
24
25
35
10
18
28
24
27
35
10
18
30
25
27
34
12
21
31
24
28
35
11
24
30
23
28
38
11
25
29
24
29
39
8
13
26
25
?6
30
9
15
24
23
25
34
10
18
28
24
26
35
11
23
30
24
28
37
10
17
28
24
26
34
1957.
1958.
1959,
1960.
1961.
1962.
41
36
48
66
102
104
41
37
50
70
103
109
40
37
53
73
108
105
42
39
53
76
116
98
39
40
55
75
119
99
37
41
57
74
117
101
35
40
59
78
126
103
36
41
61
80
120
100
38
42
63
85
109
95
37
43
66
86
97
90
36
44
67
92
98
99
35
46
65
93
93
101
41
37
50
70
104
106
39
40
55
75
117
99
36
41
61
81
118
99
36
44
66
91
96
97
3o
40
58
79
109
100
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
102
91
90
101
101
97
105
91
88
105
104
99
109
88
83
109
104
99
113
86
81
109
102
102
111
91
81
110
105
106
110
94
77
107
105
108
106
95
74
105
105
113
97
91
82
105
98
119
95
89
89
103
95
126
96
86
87
102
97
128
92
86
93
101
94
123
87
66
97
99
90
123
105
90
87
105
103
98
111
90
80
109
104
105
99
92
82
104
99
120
92
86
92
101
94
125
102
90
85
105
100
112
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
129
167
145
195
131
165
151
204
132
172
161
215
137
171
171
230
142
148
172
241
144
149
182
257
141
150
190
273
139
151
179
290
147
148
170
300
150
145
166
309
156
145
168
327
161
140
178
354
131
168
152
205
141
156
175
243
142
150
180
288
156
143
171
330
142
154
169
266
625. MILITARY PRIME CONTRACT AWARDS TO U.S. BUSINESS FIRMS AND INSTITUTIONS
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
3,976
2,528
3,6«2
616
1,049
1,474
3,493
5,479
2,295
564
1,306
1,388
3,001
2,959
2,381
826
1,028
1,502
2,892
2,088
2,462
1,068
1,468
1,404
3,760
3,059
2,038
1,326
841
1,782
2,759
4,292
2,042
1,116
1,287
2,024
4,097
1,158
2,035
886
971
1,196
4,241
1,002
1,089
767
1,231
2,108
2,333
2,116
1,004
2,454
597
2,091
2,823
2,143
959
2,271
1,136
1,972
3,462
3,295
265
481
1,310
1,934
3,399
3,148
390
913
2,194
1,891
10,470
10,966
8,358
2,006
3,383
4,364
9,411
9,439
6,542
3,510
3,596
5,210
10,671
4,276
4,128
4,107
2,799
5,395
9,684
8,586
1,614
3,665
4,640
5,797
40,236
33,267
20,642
13,288
14,418
20,766
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961,
1962.
1,756
2,103
1,625
1,850
1,989
3,271
1,927
1,232
1,898
1,754
2,186
2,180
1,563
2,243
1,966
1,904
1,987
2,552
2,312
2,142
2,204
1,726
2,274
2,295
606
3,043
1,893
2,252
1,855
2,140
1,093
2,228
2,222
1,963
2,229
2,127
1,619
1,511
2,192
2,151
1,993
1,888
1,310
1,692
1,964
2,200
2,143
2,167
1,297
2,308
1,793
2,250
2,033
2,032
1,594
1,880
1,937
1,327
2,494
2,814
1,819
1,704
2,102
1,938
2,306
2,946
1,671
2,328
1,298
1,922
2,491
2,044
5,246
5,578
5,489
5,508
6,162
6,003
4,213
7,413
6,319
5,941
6,358
6,562
4,226
5,511
5,949
6,601
6,169
6,087
5,084
5,912
5,337
5,187
7,293
7,804
18,769
24,414
23,094
23,237
25,982
28,456
1963.
1964,
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
2,429
2,372
2,097
2,952
3,364
2,887
2,611
2,958
1,846
2,906
3,930
3,445
2,463
1,966
2,451
2,956
3,034
3,124
2,023
2,502
2,843
3,461
3,026
3,488
2,413
2,640
2,150
2,978
4,040
4,203
2,366
1,910
2,390
3,693
3,566
3,067
2,216
2,580
2,313
3,940
3,545
3,937
2,722
1,963
2,775
3,165
3,690
3,173
2,635
2,163
2,419
3,541
3,720
3,836
2,119
1,967
2,790
3,383
3,626
3,903
1,814
2,075
2,995
3,225
3,308
3,378
2,149
1,997
2,988
3,513
3,479
3,613
7,503
7,296
6,394
8,814
10,328
9,456
6,802
7,052
7,383
10,132
10,632
10,758
7,573
6,706
7,507
10,646
10,955
10,946
6,082
6,039
8,773
10,121
10,413
10,894
27,960
27,093
30,057
39,713
42,328
42,054
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
3,398
2,855
2,508
3,531
3,441
2,623
2,619
2,971
2,904
2,904
3,398
3,233
2,825
2,591
2,751
2,866
3,070
2,545
2,112
2,848
2,744
2,896
2,367
3,126
2,896
2,717
3,082
3,093
3,001
2,782
3,078
2,673
2,680
2,113
2,769
2,704
2,987
3,464
2,392
2,840
2,734
2,746
3,209
3,682
2,765
3,181
3,016
2,459
8,639
8,032
7,230
8,840
8,577
7,612
8,929
8,470
8,486
9,391
8,617
8,981
9,743
tt,382
8,525
9,735
,
35,445
33,417
33,301
36,026
(DECEMBER 1973)
116
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
two subgroups: one group consists of the seven components measured in, or
related to, current-dollar units; the other group consists of the five components
measured in nonmonetary units. These new indexes should be viewed as
experimental tools for research. They are not to be viewed as substitutes for the
leading index but rather as supplements to it.
There has been considerable interest in recent months about the impact of
price changes on the leading indicators and, in particular, on the composite
index of 12 leading indicators, BCD series 810. In response to that interest, this
appendix presents two experimental leading composite indexes designed to
supplement series 810. These new indexes divide the 12 leading components into
(NOV.) (OCT.)
P
(JULY) (AUG.)
T
P
111:171 Ml 111
(JULY) (APR.)
T
P
I
M
I
(MAY)(FEB.)
T
P
(NOV.) (NOV.)
T
P
I III
M
1
T
Index: 1967=100
ill
ED
Reverse Trend Ad usted Composite Indexes
810. Twelve leading indicators
(series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 113)
Ratio scale
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
EE
s~~\l
WN/
r
Five indicators measured in
nonmonetary units (series 1,
5, 12, 17, 29)2
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
*•*
Seven indicators measured in
current-dollar units (series 6
10, 16, 19, 23, 31, 113)'
90
80
70
60
50
V^V^
III
I
v:
II
III
III
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954
-J 40
1 1,
\\
1955 1956
1957
1958
11
1959 1960
u
1961 1962
II
1963
1964
III
1965 1966 1967
1968
1969 1970
III III
III
III Ml
1971 1972 1973 1974
NOTE: The experimental indexes are not shown for the current month because less than two-thirds of the current-dollar components were available by the publication deadline.
Original trend replaced by trend of undeflated coincident index (series 820).
2
Original trend replaced by trend of deflated coincident index (series 825).
1
117
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
Tables
Charts
Historical
Series
data
escriptions
issue date) issue date)
A
Accession rate, manufacturing
2
Anticipations and intentions, businessmen's
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . . D61
Employees, manufacturing and trade
D446
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
0450
Orders, new, manufacturing
D440
Prices selling, manufacturing
D462
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade
D460
Prices selling retail trade
0466
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
D464
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
0442
Sales net manufacturing and trade
0444
Automobiles
Cars, new, purchased by households
430
Expenditures, personal consumption
234
Product, gross, constant dollars
249
20
46
46
47
46
47
47
47
47
46
46
45
11
18
74
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
84
70
72
7/73
3/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
3/73
10/73
10/73
8/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
10/69
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series/' following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
escriptions
(issue date) issue date)
Compensation of employees-Continued
Earnings, avg. hrly., prod, wkrs., priv. nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm
Earnings, real spendable average weekly
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
740
58,59
92
8/73
6/72
741
859
748
749
53
58,59
58
59
59
23
92
92
93
93
76
8/73
7/73
12/73
12/73
8/73
10/72
6/72
6/72
7/68
Composite indexes
Capital investment commitments
Coincident indicators five
Coincident indicators, five, deflated
Coincident indicators, five, rate of change
Employment, marginal adjustments
Financial flows, sensitive
Inventory investment and purchasing
Lagging indicators, six
Leading indicators, twelve
Leading indicators, twelve, reverse trend adj
Profitability
814
820
825
820
813
817
815
830
811
810
816
38
37
37
65
38
38
38
37
38
37
38
83
83
83
83
83
83
83
83
83
83
10/73
10/73
10/73
11/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
853
62
96
5/73
11/68
435
45
84
3/73
11/68
39
33
33
34
36,42
36
34,40
34
33
81
81
82
82
81
81
81
6/73
11/73
6/73
4/73
4/73
9/73
4/73
11/72
7/64
11/72
10/72
10/72
11/72
625
547
621
616
648
647
264
546
55
52
55
55
55
55
14,55
52
89
88
89
89
89
89
71,89
88
12/73
9/73
4/73
4/73
8/73
8/72
11/73
9/73
9/68#
10/69
5/69
10/69
6/72
11/68
11/68
11/68
10/73
10/73
B
Balance of payments - See also Nl A - Foreign trade.
Balances
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current account
Current account and long-term capital
Goods and services
Goods, services and remittances
Government grants and capital transactions, net . . . .
Liabilities, liquid
Liabilities, liquid and nonliquid
Liquidity, net
Merchandise trade
Reserve position U S official
Reserve transactions, official
Special drawing rights allocated to U S
Exports
Goods and services
Income on U S investments abroad
Investment, foreign direct, in the U.S
Investment income military sales and service
Merchandise, adjusted
Military sales to foreigners
Net, goods and services
Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods
Orders, new, nonelectrical machinery
Securities, U.S., purchases by foreigners
Total, excluding military aid
Transportation and services, receipts
Travelers, foreign, receipts from
Imports
Goods and services
Income on foreign investment in the U S
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investments abroad, U.S. direct
Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Military expenditures abroad, U.S
Securities, foreign, U.S. purchases
Total, general
Transportation and services, payments for
Travelers abroad U S payments by
Bonds -See Interest rates.
Building - See Investment, fixed.
Business failures, current liabilities
Business starts
Formation, business, net
Incorporations new
Buying policy, production materials
575
517
519
250
515
570
530
532
521
500
534
522
535
53
49
49
49,51
49
53
50
50
49
48
50
49
88
87
87
87
87
88
87
87
87
252
542
560
540
536
546
250
506
508
564
502
548
544
51
52
53
51
51
52
49,51
48
48
53
48
52
52
87
88
88
87
87
253
543
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
6/73
9/73
9/73
5/69
88
87
86
86
88
86
88
88
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
3/73
3/73
9/73
6/73
9/73
9/73
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
51
52
87
9/73
5/69
88
9/73
5/69
541
561
537
547
565
512
549
545
51
53
51
52
53
48
52
52
87
88
88
86
88
88
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
6/73
9/73
9/73
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
14
34
81
7/73
25,39
25
28
77
77
79
10/73
7/73
2/73
*12
13
26
86
87
87
87
88
87
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
8/68#
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
C
Canada - See International comparisons.
Capacity adequacy manufacturers'
Capacity utilization
Gap (potential GNP less actual)
Output to capacity, manufacturing
Potential GNP, constant dollars
Capital consumption allowances
Capital investment - See Investment, fixed.
Cars -See Automobiles.
Cash flow, net, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, net, corporate, current dollars
Compensation of employees - See also NIA - National
and personal income.
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
416
44
84
3/73
11/68
207
850
206
296
61
62
61
17
95
96
95
72
9/73
12/73
9/73
11/73
10/69
35
34
31
80
80
8/73
1/72
31
8/73
1/72
745
58,59
92
9/73
10/72
58,59
93
9/73
10/72
746
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
118
Construction - See Investment, fixed.
Consumer goods, ratio of business equipment to
Consumer installment debt - See Credit.
Consumer prices - See Price indexes - Consumer.
Consumer sentiment
Costs - See Labor cost and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, change in
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, change in
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt change in
112
110
*72
66
*113
D
Defense
Contract awards, military prime
Expenditures abroad, U.S. military
Obligations incurred, procurement
Obligations incurred total
Orders, new, defense products
Orders, new, defense products industries
Purchases of goods and services
Sales military to foreigners
Deficit or surplus, government - See NIA - Budget.
Depreciation
Diffusion indexes - See also Anticipations and intentions.
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance . . . .
Employees on nonagricultoral payrolls
Industrial materials prices
Industrial production
Orders, new, durable goods industries
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods
Profits, manufacturing
Sales retail stores
Workweek, avg., production workers, mfg
Disposable personal income - See NIA - National
and personal income.
Drawing rights
Durable goods
Automobiles - See Automobiles.
Expenditures, personal consumption - See NIA Personal consumption expenditures.
Inventories, business, change in
Orders, export, excluding motor vehicles
Orders new
Orders, new, components
Orders unfilled
Orders, unfilled, change in
Orders, unfilled, to shipments
Sales, final
296
17
72
11/73
011
05
041
023
047
06
019
058
034
054
01
63
63
64
63
64
97
11/73
7/73
7/73
12/73
5/73
8/73
63
63
64
63
64
63
98
98,100
97,100
98,101
97,99
97
98,102
97
98,102
97,99
5/69
6/69
4/69
12/73
7/73
9/73
7/73
7/73
5/69
6/69
10/69
8/68#
9/68
6/72
87
535
271
506
*6
06
96
25
852
270
15
48
25,39
86
77
63
27
29
62
15
97,99
78
79
96
71
11/73
3/73
8/73
8/73
8/73
8/73
8/73
11/73
2
841
*5
20
60
20,39
74
94
74
7/73
4/73
5/73
8/68
4/72
6/69
63
60
46
98
94
85
7/73
4/73
2/73
6/69
4/72
11/68
71
9/68
9/68
9/68
10/69
E
Earnings - See Compensation of employees.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance . . . .
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance,
diffusion index
Employed persons in civilian labor force
Employed, mfg. and trade, diffusion index
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
05
842
0446
NIA means National Income and Products Accounts.
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Employment and unemployment— Continued
*41
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
D41
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components .
46
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
860
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed
50
Job vacancies in manufacturing
3
Layoff rate, manufacturing
48
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagricultural estab., rate of change . . 48
813
Marginal employment adjustments
21
Overtime hours, production workers, mfg
42
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployment rate, both sexes, 16-19 years
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, 1 5 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present .
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate, white
Workweek, production workers, components
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
843
846
845
*44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
D1
*1
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
21,41
64
21
75
98,100
74
7/73
7/73
62
21
20
21
65
38
20
21
96
74
74
75
83
74
75
7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73
5/73
10/73
7/73
4/73
60
60
60
22,42
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
63
20,39
94
94
94
75
75
94
75
94
75
94
97,99
74
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
7/73
7/73
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
35
38
82
83
11/73
10/73
11/73
8/68
7/73
10/72
8/68#
8/68#
8/68#
4/72
8/68
Equipment, business - See Investment, fixed.
Exports - See Balance of pmts. and NIA - Foreign trade.
F
Federal funds rate
Financial flows, sensitive
Foreign series - See International comparisons.
Foreign trade - See Balance of payments and NIA.
France - See International comparisons.
Free reserves
119
817
93
35
82
12/73
11/72
G
Government - See Balance of payments. Defense,
and NIA.
Gross national product - See Capacity utilization and
NIA.
H
Hours - See Employment and unemployment.
Housing
Residential structures - See NIA - Gross private
domestic investment.
Units authorized by local building permits
Units started, private, total
Vacancy rate, rental housing
*29
28
857
26,39
26
62
78
78
96
9/73
6/73
12/73
4/69
6/72
10/72
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
International comparisons-Continued
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Inventories
Business inventories, change in - See NIA - Gross
private domestic investment.
Finished goods, book value, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Investment and purchasing
Manufacturers' book value
Manufacturers', condition of
Manufacturing and trade, book value
Manufacturing and trade, change in
Manufacturing and trade, diffusion index
Materials and supplies, change in mfrs.' book value . .
Materials purchased, higher inventories
Production materials buying policy
Valuation, adjustment of, corporate profits
Investment, fixed - See also NIA - Gross private
domestic investment.
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Capital appropriations, new, mfg., diffusion index . .
Capital investment commitments
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . .
Construction contracts total value
Construction expend., bus., mach. and equip, sales . .
Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods
Foreign direct investments in the U.S
Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense . . .
Plant and equipment, contracts and orders
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures . . .
Plant and equip., new bus. expend., diff. index
U.S. direct investments abroad
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date) 'issue date)
123
126
127
128
121
122
125
67
67
103
103
3/73
3/73
10/72
10/72
67
67
67
67
67
104
104
104
103
104
3/73
11/73
3/73
3/73
3/73
10/72
10/72
143
146
147
148
142
19
145
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
12/73
12/73
12/73
12/73
12/73
12/73
12/73
29
62
38
44
44
29,42
28,40
47
28
28
28
16
79
8/73
8/73
10/73
9/73
3/73
8/73
8/73
2/73
8/73
2/73
2/73
11/73
97
11
D11
814
9
8
69
853
560
24
*10
*61
D61
561
27
26
63
38
26
25
27
62
53
26
25,39
27,42,43
46
53
78
77
97
83
77
77
78
96
88
77
77
68
*62
63
*17
65
851
815
412
414
*71
*31
D450
20
37
26
286
96
83
84
84
79
78
85
79
78
79
72
10/72
10/72
9/68
2/69
11/68
11/68
2/69
2/69
11/68
9/68
10/69
11/73
11/73
11/73
10/73
5/73
78,84
85
88
8/73
5/73
9/73
8/73
8/73
3/73
3/73
9/73
9/68#
11/68
5/69
9/68
9/68
11/68
11/68
5/69
32
32,42
32
30,40
80
80
80
80
9/73
8/73
9/73
8/73
7/68
11/68
10/72
11/68
3
20
74
7/73
8/6 8#
85
102
33
81
6/73
10/72
33
81
6/73
10/72
103
33
81
6/73
10/72
602
601
600
298
54
54
54
17
89
89
89
72
9/73
9/73
9/73
11/73
7/68#
7/68#
7/68#
10/69
270
274
273
15
15
18
71
71
72
11/73
11/73
11/73
10/69
10/69
Investments, financial - See Balance of payments,
Composite indexes, Interest rates. International
comparisons - Stock prices, and Price indexes Stock.
Italy - See International comparisons.
J
Japan - See International comparisons.
1
Imports - See Balance of payments and NIA Foreign trade.
Income - See also Compensation of employees
and N I A - National and personal income.
Households, compared to year ago
Households, mean probability of change
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Income on U S. investments abroad
Personal
Receipts for transportation and other
services U S balance of payments
Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S
Industrial materials prices - See Price indexes - Materials.
Industrial production - See also International
comparisons.
U.S., components
U S , index
U.S., rate of change
Interest net
Interest rates
Business loans, short-term bank rate
Corporate bond yield
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yield, residential
Municipal bond yield
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill discount rate
Treasury bond yield
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
West Germany
L
420
425
543
542
*52
548
544
84
84
88
88
76
3/73
3/73
9/73
9/73
8/73
11/68
11/68
5/69
5/69
7/68
52
52
88
88
9/73
9/73
5/69
5/69
Labor cost per unit of gross product
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy . . . .
Labor cost price per unit of
Labor force - See Employment and unemployment.
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Loans - See Credit.
M
D47
*47
47
288
*67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
133
136
137
138
132
135
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
45
45
52
52
23,41
64
23,41,67
65
16
98,101
76,103
72
5/73
5/73
5/73
11/73
11/68
11/68
10/69
36,42
35
35
36
35
36
35
35
82
82
82
82
82
82
82
82
1/73
2/73
11/73
2/73
2/73
11/73
2/73
2/73
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
66
66
66
66
66
66
103
103
103
103
103
103
12/73
12/73
12/73
12/73
12/73
12/73
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
Machinery - See Investment, fixed.
Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments.
Military - See Defense.
Money supply, change in
Money supply
Money supply and time deposits
Money supply, time deposits, and deposits
at nonbank thrift institutions
N
National income and product accounts
Budget
Expenditures, Federal
Receipts Federal
Surplus or deficit. Federal
Surplus or deficit, government
Final sales - See also Sales.
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.
119
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Series
number
National income and product accounts-Continued
Foreign trade - See also Balance of payments
Exports goods and services
Exports, goods and services, net
Exports, goods and services, net, percent of GNP . . .
Imports, goods and services
252
250
Government purchases goods and services
Federal Government, constant dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
Federal Government percent of GNP
Federal, State, and local governments
National defense
State and local governments, constant dollars
State and local governments, current dollars
State and local governments, percent of GNP
Gross national product
Auto product, gross, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, rate of change
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, rate of change
GNP, gap (potential less actual)
GNP, potential, constant dollars
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Per capita GNP, current dollars
Price deflator, implicit
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private product . . .
Gross private domestic investment
Equipment, producers' durable
Inventories, business, change in, constant dollars . . .
Inventories, business, change in, current dollars
Inventories, business, change in, percent of GNP . . . .
Inventories, business, durable goods, change in
Inventories, business, nondurable goods, change in . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, constant dollars . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, current dollars . . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, percent of GNP . .
Investment, gross private domestic, total
Structures, nonresidential
Structures residential constant dollars
Structures, residential, current dollars
Structures, residential, percent of GNP
National and personal income
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol.
Disposable personal income, per capita, current dol. .
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation adj
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation adj.,
percent of national income
Proprietors' income
Proprietors' income, percent of national income
Rental income of persons
Rental income of persons, pet. of national income . .
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods
Durable goods, except autos
Nondurable goods
Personal consumption expend., total, constant dol . .
Personal consumption expend., total, current dol . . .
Personal consumption expend., total, pet. of GNP . .
Services
Saving
Capital consumption allowances
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving to disposable personal income
Profits, undistributed corporate plus inventory
valuation adjustment
Surplus or deficit govt
Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
0
250A
253
263
262
262A
260
264
267
266
266A
13
71
13
19
13
73
71
18
14
19
14
72
71
14,55
18
14
19
71,89
18
9,18,23,
249
*205
41,61
65
9,23,41
65
61
61
9
9
9
56
205
*200
200
207
206
217
215
210
211
243
246
245
245A
271
275
247
241
241 A
240
242
248
244
244A
280
280A
225
224
227
226
288
288A
220
222
286
286A
282
282A
284
284A
71
73
71
72
71
73
72
69,76,
95
69
69,76
69
95
9*5
69
69
69
90
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
5/69
5/69
10/69
5/69
11/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
11/73
10/69
10/69
11/73
11/73
11/73
11/73
10/69
11/73
10/69
10/69
10/67
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
12
18
12,28
19
15
15
18
12
19
12
12
18
12
19
70
72
70,78
73
71
71
16
19
10
10
10
10
16
19
10
10
16
71
73
69
69
69
69
72
73
69
69
72
11/73
11/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
11/73
11/73
10/73
10/73
11/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
19
16
19
16
19
73
71
73
71
73
11/73
11/73
11/73
11/73
11/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
72
70
73
70
70
72
70
73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
11/73
11/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
237
11
11
11
11
11,18
11
19
11
70
70
70
70
70
70
73
70
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
296
290
292
854
17
17
17
62
72
72
72
96
11/73
11/73
11/73
9/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68
294
298
17
17
72
72
11/73
11/73
10/69
10/69
234
232
233
236
231
230
230A
121
67
104
3/73
781
783
782
784
56,66
56
56
56
90,103
90
90
90
7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
*17
*23
D23
30,40
30,40
63
80
79
97,100
8/73
12/73
12/73
11/68
4/69
4/69
*19
019
30,40
63
79
97
12/73
12/73
5/69
5/69
750
752
751
55
58
109
D58
57
57
57
31,57
31,57
36
64
91
91
91
80,91
80, 91
82
98,102
7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73
11/73
7/73
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
11/73
6/69
770
858
58,59
58
93
93
9/73
9/73
10/72
6/68
*16
18
22
D34
30,40
30
30
79
79
80
97
8/73
8/73
8/73
9/73
2/73
1/73
10/73
7/68
1/72
7/68
9/73
12/73
5/69
11/72
P
10/69
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
9/73
9/73
10/73
10/73
10/73
9/73
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders, new and unfilled - See Anticipations and
intentions, Balance of payments, Defense,
Durable goods, and Investment, fixed.
Output - See Industrial production, NIA - Gross national
product, and Productivity.
Plant and equipment - See Investment, fixed.
Price indexes
Consumer - See also International comparisons.
All items
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Deflators - See NIA - Gross national product.
Labor cost, price per unit of
Materials, industrial
Materials, industrial, components
Stock - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, diffusion index
Wholesale
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Manufactured goods
Prime rate charged by banks
Manufactured goods components
Production - See Industrial production, Investment, fixed,
and NIA - Gross national product.
Productivity
Output per man-hour total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ. . .
Profits - See also NIA - National and personal income.
Corporate, after taxes
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Income originating, ratio of profits to
Manufacturing
Manufacturing and trade, net
Per dollar of sales manufacturing
Profitability
15
816
63
46
30
38
534
93
50
35
87
24
62
27
44
24,41
46
24,41
64
24
76
96
78
84
76
85
76
98,102
76
8/73
7/68
8/73
8/73
9/73
8/73
2/73
7/73
7/73
2/69
9/68#
11/68
2/69
11/68
6/72
6/72
29
79
2/73
D442
Reserve position, U.S. official
Reserves, free
^Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
120
82
57
851
69
410
*56
D444
*54
D54
59
7/73
U
236
275
274
11
15
15
70
71
71
10/73
11/73
11/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
11/68
3/69
S
Salaries - See Compensation of employees.
Sales - See also NIA - Final sales.
Final sales
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Machinery and equip., and bus. construction expend.
Manufacturers' total value
Manufacturing and trade
Manufacturing and trade, net, diffusion index
Retail stores
Retail stores, components
Retail stores, constant dollars
Saving- See NIA -Saving.
Securities - See Balance of payments. Interest
rates, International comparisons - Stock prices,
and Price indexes - Stock.
Stock prices - See Price indexes - Stock.
Surplus or deficit, government - See NIA - Budget.
Unemployment - See Employment and unemployment.
United Kingdom -See International comparisons.
V
32
W
85
80
83
R
Vendor performance
Nondurable goods
Expenditures, personal consumption
Inventories, business, change in
Sales, final
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
Wages and salaries - See Compensation of employees.
West Germany - See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices - See Price indexes - Wholesale.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Within each of the report's six sections, series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers. The series
numbers are for identification purposes only and do not
reflect series relationships or order. To find chart and table
page numbers, historical data, and series descriptions, consult
the "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide."
The alphabetic-numeric designations following each series
title and source indicate the charts and tables in which the
series may be found. See the table of contents for the chart
and table titles and page numbers. "M" indicates monthly
series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of
month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
The "A" following a series number indicates a component
series (same number) as a percent of an aggregate series, such
as GNP or national income. The series in section B preceded
by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list"
of cyclical indicators, chart B8. The "D" preceding a number
indicates a diffusion index.
233.
234.
Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
236.
Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable
goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
237.
Personal consumption expenditures, services, in
current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
240.
Gross private domestic investment, total (Q).—
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A4)
241.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)
A National Income and Product
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.
220.
Gross national product in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, E5)
241A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, El, E5)
242.
Implicit price deflator, gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A1)
243.
Per capita gross national product in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
National income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
222.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
except automobiles, in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A3)
244.
Personal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Imports of goods and services (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
260.
Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)
262.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A6)
(A5, D2)
262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
263.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A 10)
264.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6, D3)
266.
State and local government purchases of goods
and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)
266A. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)
267.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)
State and local government purchases of goods and
services, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
270.
Final sales, durable goods (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)
271.
Change in business inventories, durable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)
273.
Final sales (series 205 minus series 246), 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A10)
274.
Final sales, nondurable goods, (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)
275.
Change in business inventories, nondurable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)
280.
Compensation of employees (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)
244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures as a percent of gross national product
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
245.
253.
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all
industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4, B4)
(A2)
224.
Disposable personal income in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
246.
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
225.
Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
226.
Per capita disposable personal income in current
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)
247.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
227.
Per capita disposable personal income in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)
248.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
230.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
249.
Gross auto product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
230A. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
250.
231.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958
dollars (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A3, A10)
250A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
232.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
252.
280A. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A11)
282.
Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)
Rental income of persons (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)
284A. Rental income of persons as a percent of national
income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A11)
286.
Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)
of Com(A8)
282A. Proprietors' income as a percent of national income
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A11)
284.
(A 10)
Proprietors' income (Q).-Department
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A8)
286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).-Department
of
Commerce, Bureau of
Economic
Analysis
(AH)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued
288.
Net interest (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)
288A. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)
15.
Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal, adjustment by Bureau of
Economic
Analysis
(B5)
39.
Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).-American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)
*16.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5, B8)
40.
*17.
Index of price per unit of labor cost-ratio, index
of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and
supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of
output (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B1)
*41.
Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)
42.
Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor force survey (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1)
*43.
Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1, B8)
*44.
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1,B8)
290.
Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
292.
Personal saving (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
294.
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
18.
296.
Capital consumption allowances, corporate and
noncorporate (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
*19.
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).Standard and Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8, E3, F3)
20.
298.
Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories
of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
21.
Average weekly overtime hours of production
workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
45.
Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating
incorporate business (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpower
Administration
(B1)
46.
Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(B1)
Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)
*47.
Index of industrial production (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)
Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
48.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1,E5)
Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
50.
Number of job vacancies in manufacturing (EOM).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B1)
Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M).—National Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
*52.
Personal income (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2, B8)
53.
Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)
*54.
Sales of retail stores (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E4)
(A9)
B Cyclical Indicators
*1.
Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)
2.
Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
3.
Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
*5.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).-Department of
Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B1, E3)
22.
*23.
24.
25.
*6.
8.
9.
*10.
11.
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
Index of construction contracts, total value
(M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3)
Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (B3)
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis May 1970 and by source agency
thereafter.
(B3, B8)
Index of net business formation (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3, B8)
13.
Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)
122
28.
New private housing units started, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
*29.
Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)
55.
*31.
Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census
(B4, B8)
Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, E5)
*56.
Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(B4)
Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8)
57.
Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
32.
33.
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(B3, E3)
*12.
14.
26.
Corporate profits after taxes, 1958 dollars (CDDepartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)
Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)
34.
Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)
35.
Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
37.
Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of
purchased materials (M).-National Association of
Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B4)
(B2)
58.
Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)
59.
Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (M).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)
*61.
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(B3, B8, C1, C2)
*62.
Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and
salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to
index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SER IBS-Continued
63.
Index of unit labor cost, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5)
65.
Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
66.
Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally
adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted
figure for previous month to obtain current figure
(B6)
*67.
Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities
(Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6, B8)
68.
Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product
(1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of
current-dollar compensation of employees to gross
corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
69.
Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and
commercial construction put in place)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
*71.
Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
*72.
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6, B8)
118.
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages
(M).-Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)
119.
Federal funds rate (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)
*200.
Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in
section A.
*205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.
245.
Change in business inventories (GNP component)
(Q). See in section A.
810.
Twelve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted
composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
811.
Twelve leading indicators-composite index prior to
reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10,
12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
817.
Sensitive financial flows-leading composite index
(includes series 33, 85, 112, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index
(includes series 41, 43, 47, 52 D, and 56D)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
830.
61.
Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
110.
Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
in credit markets (Q).—Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)
412.
Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)
414.
Net change in consumer installment debt (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8)
114.
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
115.
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-Treasury
Department
(B6)
116.
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-First National City Bank of New York and
Treasury Department
(B6)
117.
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(B6)
Six lagging indicators-composite index (includes
series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
C Anticipations and Intentions
109.
*113.
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
Profitability-leading composite index (includes series
16, 17, and 19) (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
825.
112.
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
816.
Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M3] (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
Inventory investment and purchasing-leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37)
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7, E5)
103.
Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(CD
815.
820.
Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's [M2]
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
435.
Capital investment commitments-leading composite
index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
102.
Number of new cars purchased by households
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
814.
93.
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
(EOQ).-The Conference Board
(B3)
430.
Marginal employment adjustments-leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus
currency) [M1] (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)
97.
Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial changes (increase, decrease, and increase less
decrease) in income of households (Q).—Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD
813.
85.
96.
425.
410.
416.
420.
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
55.
Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M). See in section B.
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries (Q). See in section B.
58.
Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
See in section B.
Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(C1)
211.
Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D4)
250.
Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q). See in section A.
Percent of total book value of inventories held by
manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less
percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
252.
Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).
See in section A.
(CD
253.
Imports of goods and services: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). See in section A.
264.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
national defense (Q). See in section A.
500.
Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series
512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)
502.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)
Manufacturers' inventories, total
book value
(EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12
months, less percent classifying existing capacity as
excessive (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(CD
Current income of households compared to income a
year ago (percent higher, lower, and unchanged)
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
123
546.
Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
748.
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-first year average (mean) changes (Q).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D5)
547.
U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
749.
Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods
except motor vehicles and parts (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-average (mean) changes over life of contract
(Q).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
548.
Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
750.
Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery
(M).-McGraw-Hill, Department
of Economics;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D1)
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)
549.
Payments for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
751.
Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
512.
General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)
560.
Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(D2)
752.
Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)
515.
Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
561.
U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
770.
Index of output per man-hour, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(Q5)
Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
564.
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
781.
Index of consumer prices (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4, E5, F1)
Balance on current account and long term capital;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
565.
U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
782.
Index of consumer prices, food (M).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
783.
570.
Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Index of consumer prices, commodities less food
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D4)
Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
575.
Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
784.
Index of consumer prices, services (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all
foreigners, total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
- (D2)
600.
Federal Government surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
841.
Total civilian labor force, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)
601.
Federal Government receipts, national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
842.
Total civilian employment, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)
843.
Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)
844.
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued
506.
508.
517.
519.
521.
522.
530.
532.
534.
535.
536.
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding
military grants) to foreign official agencies, total
outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
602.
U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
Federal expenditures, national income and product
accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D3)
616.
Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights:
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Defense Department obligations incurred, total,
excluding military assistance (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
621.
Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D3)
625.
Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
845.
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)
647.
New orders, defense products industries (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D3)
846.
648.
New orders, defense products (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D6)
847.
740.
Index of average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Unemployment rate, white, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)
848.
741.
Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)
858.
Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)
859.
Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents)
on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1967 dollars
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)
Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q).—Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
537.
Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military:
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
540.
U.S. investment income, military sales, and other
services exports, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
541.
542.
543.
544.
545.
Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures
and other services imports: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
745.
Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
746.
Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
124
TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued
857.
Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental
housing units as a percent of total rental housing
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
E Analytical Measures
860.
Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to total number of persons unemployed
(M).-The Conference Board, and Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
47.
Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.
48.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See
in section B.
200.
GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.
206.
Potential level of gross national product in 1958
dollars (Q).-Council of Economic Advisers
(E1)
207.
Gap-the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual
GNP (series 205)
(Q).-Council of Economic
Advisers
(E1)
820.
850.
851.
852.
853.
854.
126.
France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F2)
127.
Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lnstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F2)
128.
Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
132.
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).Ministry of Labour (London)
(F1)
133.
Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -Dominion
Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F1)
135.
West Germany, index of consumer prices
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
136.
France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F1)
137.
Italy, index of consumer prices (M).— Institute Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F1)
138.
Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo)
(F1)
United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M). See in section B.
142.
United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The
Financial Times (London)
(F3)
United States, index of industrial production (M).
See in section B.
143.
Canada, index of stock prices (M). -Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145.
West Germany, index of stock prices
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
146.
France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147.
Italy, index of stock prices (M). -Institute Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(F3)
148.
Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Tokyo)
(F3)
781.
United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in
section D.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the
same number and are obtained from the same sources. See
section B for titles and sources of D1, D5, D6, D11, D19,
D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61, and section C for D440,
D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464, D466, and
D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34.
Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National
City Bank of New York; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
F International Comparisons
Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Economics
Department
(E2)
19.
Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56),
manufacturing and trade total (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)
47.
121.
Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (M).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
(E2)
Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
(series 292 divided by series 224) (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial
production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(F2)
122.
United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123.
Canada, index of industrial production
Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
125.
(M).(F2)
West Germany, index of industrial production
(M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal
adjustment by OECD
(F2)
(M).(F1)
(M).(F3)
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