Full text of Business Conditions Digest : December 1971
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DECEMBER
DATA THROUGH
A UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE
PUBLICATION
U.S.
DEPARTMENT
OF
COMMERCE
Bureau
of the
Census
1971
NOVEMBER
BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators Divis'mn.
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and review,
Morton Some r—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic
data. (Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the
Administrative and Publications Services Division.
The cooperation of
which provide data
furnishing data are
at the back of this
various government and private agencies
is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
indicated in the list of series and sources
report.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Maurice H. Stans, Secretary
James T. Lynnf Under Secretary
Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of
a technical committee established by the Office of Management
and Budget. The committee consists of the following persons:
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Julius Shiskin, Chairman
Office of Management and Budget
George Hay Brown, Director
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive
Office of the President
Joseph R. Wright, Jr., Bureau of the Census, Department
of Commerce
Joseph R. Wright, Jr., Deputy Director
Walter F. Ryan, Associate Director
George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics, Department of
Commerce
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department
of Labor
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
Benjamin D. Kaplan, Chief
Statistical Indicators Division
ABOUT THE REPORT
ANT/C/PAT/ONS
AND
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
f'n aggregate economic
activity.
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $15 a year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing).
Single issues are $1.50.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge.
For
information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of
This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely on
the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government,
and various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Bus/ness Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to
make it more generally useful to those concerned with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable
to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,
D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce field office.
New Features and Changes for This Issue
BC»
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
DECEMBER 1971
Data Through November
Series ESI No. 71-12
iii
Seasonal Adjustments
1
MCD Moving Averages
1
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
1
1
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
2
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
3
3
Section E. Analytical Measures
3
Section F. International Comparisons
3
Howto Read Charts.^
4
How to Locate a Series
4
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
5
PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al
A2
A3
A4
_A6
A7
A8
A9
Gross National Product.....
National and Personal Income
9
.'
10
Personal Consumption Expenditures
11
Gross Private Domestic Investment
12
Foreign Trade
13
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
14
Final Sales and Inventories
15
National Income Components
Saving
16
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Tinning
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
18
21
Fixed Capital Investment...
Inventories and Inventory Investment
23
26
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
28
30
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
34
36
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
40
Diffusion Indexes
43
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
45
46
Federal Government Activities
51
Price Movements
53
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios
55
56
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change
58
60
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
F2
F3
Consumer Prices
61
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
62
63
PART II. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
AS
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
64
64
65
65
66
66
66
66
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl
B2
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
_
,
68
70
71
73
74
75
77
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
78
Diffusion Indexes
79
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
80
81
83
84
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP
85
Analytical Ratios
86
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
87
89
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
93
93
94
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
B.
C.
D.
E.
95
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Current Adjustment Factors
Historical Data for Selected Series
Descriptions and Sources of Series (See Index—Series Finding Guide)
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
98
10!
102
1854 to 1970
107
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
108
109
Index—Series Finding Guide...
113
Titles and Sources of Series
llo
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
Changes in this issue are as follows:
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economfc
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
1. Revised data for the series on retail trade (series 54) and
those containing these data (series 56, 31, 71, and 851) are shown
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes In placement of
in this issue for the period beginning 1968.
series In relation to
otlter stifa^ fcftanges
2. Revisions for the series on machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (series 69) have been carried back
to January 1969 in this issue. Revised data for 1971 were published
in the November issue. Revised data for the period prior to 1%9
will be published in BCD as they become available.
3. Revised data on U.S. money stock are shown in this issue for
the period 1964-1969o Revised figures for 1970 to date were shown
in the November issue.
4. Appendix G includes historical data for series 21, 31* 50, 54>
56, 71, 85, 102, 103, 820, 830, and 851.
The January issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on January 31.
iii
In composition of
4 CENSUS PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS
DIGEST
CONDITIONS
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
DEFENSE INDICATORS
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of years.
This report brings together
approximately 600 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form which is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current business
conditions and prospects is
the national income model,
the leading indicators,
anticipations and intentions,
or a combination of these.
Other types of data such as
foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. Also, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for purchase.
A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965.
A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on the
national economy.
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development. Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-product/on-de//very process. Most
are monthly series, although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
IV
The source statements for
FORTRAN IV programs which
are used by the Bureau in
its analysis of time series
are available from '.he Bureau
on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
program for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X-ll variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the
X-l 1Q for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A. National income and Product
3. Cyclical Indicators
C. Anticipations and Intentions
D. Other Key Indicators
E. Analytical Measures
F. International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1950 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, most
charts contain shading which indicates
periods of recession in general business
activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, some issues contain a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (QBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in Section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Persona/ income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses tha same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 73 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the coincident index. This facilitates
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
>v
^v
Economic
Process
N.
N.
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
X.
Cyclical
Timing
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
{? series)
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(18 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins
(4 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Unit iabor costs
(2 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)
\
\^
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(37 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT Comprehensive
employment
INDICATORS
(25 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
<3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
0 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade {3 series)
investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
comparisons among the leading, coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what thev expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks).) Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960fs,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (Feb.)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
roonti1 f°r ^M data are plotted.
("6" - June)
^ Roman number indicates latest
^/quarter for which data are
/ plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points in
dicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted iy2, 2,
or 2V2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the 'Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of "Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1968
1969
1970
2dQ
1970
3dQ
1970
Percent change
4th Q
1970
IstQ
1971
2dQ
1971
3dQ
1971
4th Q
to
IstQ
1971
IstQ
to
2dQ.
1971
2dQ
to
3dQ
1971
Series number |
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars. ..
.
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
200.
205
210
215.
217.
Ann.rate,bil.dol.
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol...
do
864.2
706.6
122.3
4t307
3t522
929.1
724.7
128.2
4»585
3f576
974.1
720.0
135.3
4»755
3t5l5
968.5
721.1
134.3
4»735
3t526
983.5
723.3
136.0
4«795
3t526
988.4 1020.8 1043.1 1060*8
729.7
715.9
738.4
745.5
139.9
138.1
141.3
142.3
5i 118
5 ? 045
4i804 4 t 9 4 9
3t571 3?597
3 t 4 8 0 3t538
Ann.rate,bil.dol. 711.1
National income, current dollars
do . .
688.9
Personal income current dollars
do
591.0
Disposable personal income current dol . . .
499.0
do
Disposable personal income, constant dol. .
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol... 2»946
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
do ..... 2»487
763.7
750.3
634.2
513.5
795.9
803.6
687.8
531.5
793.4
803.8
685.7
533.0
802.2
809.8
696.2
536.0
802.1
816.7
701.5
532.5
..
3.3
1.9
1.3
3.0
1.7
2.2
1.2
1.0
1.9
0.9
1.7
1.0
0.7
1.4
0.7
200
205
210
215
217
854.1
866*1
749.2
553.2
3.3
2.2
2.9
1.9
2.0
2.5
2.7
1.7
1.1
1.3
1.1
0.3
220
222
224
225
A2. National and Personal Income
220.
222
224
225.
226.
828.3
834.3
721.6
542.7
844.5
854.8
740.8
551.8
3»130
3i358
3f353
3 1395
3t410
3 1498
3? 583
3f614
2.6
2.4
0.9
226
2f535
2f595
2»606
2t613
2t588
2t631
2f669
2»669
1.7
1.4
0.0
227
579.6
469.3
89.9
58.2
31.7
247.6
242.1
615.8
475.9
88.6
60.7
28.0
264.7
262.5
613.8
477.1
90.7
60.8
29.9
262.9
260.2
620.9
477.9
90.4
60.8
29.6
265.5
265.0
624.7
474.2
84.9
61.4
23.5
270.9
268.9
644.6
484.8
97.6
63.7
33.9
272.0
275.0
660.9
492.3
100.8
66.3
34.5
279.8
280.4
672.5
496.5
104.7
67.2
37.5
282.0
285.7
3.2
2.2
15.0
3.7
44.3
0.4
2.3
2.5
1.5
3.3
4.1
1.8
2.9
2.0
1.8
0.9
3.9
1.4
8.7
0.8
1.9
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
137.8
98.6
34.5
64.1
31.8
7.4
135.3
102.1
36.8
65.4
30.4
2.8
134.1
102.1
36.6
65.6
29.9
2.1
138.6
104.8
37.3
67.5
28.7
5.1
137.3
100.8
37.1
63.7
32.8
3.7
143.8
104.3
37.9
66.3
36.4
3.2
152.4
107.0
38.2
68.8
39.7
5.7
153.6
109.3
39.1
70.1
43.3
1.1
4.7
3.5
2.2
4.1
11.0
-0.5
6.0
2.6
0.8
3.8
9.1
2.5
0.8
2.1
2.4
1.9
9.1
-4.6
240
241
242
243
244
245
2.0
55.6
53.6
3.6
62.9
59.3
4.2
63.2
59.0
4.0
63.7
59.7
2.7
63.2
60.5
4.2
66.1
61.9
-0.5
66.4
66.9
0.5
68.9
68.4
1.5
4.6
2.3
-4.7
0.5
8.1
1.0
3.8
2.2
250
252
253
1.7
1.8
-1.4
1.7
260
262
264
266
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
Total, current dollars
231.
232.
233
234
236
237
Total, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars.
Durable goods exc. autos, current dollars. .
Automobiles current dollars
Nondurable goods current dollars
Services current dollars
Ann.rate,bil.dol. 536.2
do
452.7
do
84.0
do ...
53.6
do
30.4
do
230.8
221.3
do
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240
241
242.
243
244.
245
126.0
do
Gross private domestic investment, total. . .
88.8
do
Fixed investment total nonresidential ....
30.3
do
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
... . do . . . . 58.5
Fixed investment producers' dur. equip.
30.1
do
Fixed investment, residential structures. . .
7.1
do
Change in business inventories total 2 .. .
AS. Foreign Trade
250 Net exports of goods and services2.
252 Exports
253. Imports
do
do
do
2.5
50.6
48.1
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262
264.
266
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
do
do
do
do
199.6
98.8
78.0
100.7
209.7
99.2
78.8
110.8
219.4
97.2
76.6
120.9
216.5
96.8
75.1
119.7
220.1
96.1
74.2
124.0
223.7
95.9
73,2
127.9
228.2
96.7
73.0
131.5
230.2
95.7
71.8
134.5
234.2
97.4
70.8
136*8
2.0
0*8
-0.3
2.8
0.9
-1.0
-1.6
2.3
do
169.6
180.9
180.8
183.7
184.9
173.1
188.0
191.5
198.0
8.6
1.9
3.4
270
-3.4
290.9
3.8
292.0
2.7
297.4
-0.5
302.2
7.2
0.4
-1.1
1.8
-3.2
1.6
271
274
3.0
1.6
3.6
-1.4
275
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270 Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods2
274 Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business
inventories, nondurable goods2
do
do
4.9
252.9
4.5
269.0
-0.6
284.7
-2.0
282.9
4.7
284.9
do
2.1
2.9
3.4
4.0
0.4
7.1
-0.6
-7.7
A8. Notional Income Components
do
do
do
do
do
514.6
64.2
21.2
84.3
26.9
565.5
67.0
22.6
78.6
29.9
601.9
66.9
23.3
70.8
33.0
598.5
67.6
23.2
71.5
32.6
606.5
66.0
23.4
73.0
33.4
609.3
65.9
23.7
69.0
34.2
627.9
66.0
23.8
75.5
35.0
639.5
66.7
24.2
78.3
35.8
647.7
68.8
24.5
76.7
36.4
3.1
0.2
0.4
9.4
2.3
1.8
1.1
1.7
3.7
2.3
1.3
3.1
1.2
-2.0
1.7
280
282
284
286
288
do
do
128.3
39.8
141.0
37.9
140.3
54.1
141.1
54.2
142.6
57.4
138.3
58.5
149.8
58.4
152.7
60.9
152.8
57.7
8.3
-0.2
1.9
4.3
0.1
-5.3
290
292
296 Capital consumption allowances 2
298* Government surplus or deficit, total
do
do
do
20.9
74.5
-6.8
14.5
81.1
7.4
11.7
87.6
-13.1
12.2
86.9
-12.2
12.2
88.2
-15.2
11.7
89.8
-21.7
13.8
95.6
-17.9
15.4
97.3
-21.0
13.2
99.5
-17.5
17.9
6.5
3.8
11.6
1.8
-3.1
-14.3
2.3
3.5
294
296
298
El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP eao (potential less actual)2
do
-6.8
3.2
38.3
33.2
39.0
54.5
48.8
48.3
49*6
-5.7
-0.5
1.3
207
280 Compensation of employees
282 Proprietors' income
286 Corp profits and inventory valuation adj ..
288 Net interest
A9. Saving
292 Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1969
1970
IstQ
1971
2dQ
1971
Percent change
3dQ
Sept.
1971
1971
Oct.
1971
Nov.
1971
Sept.
to
Oct.
IstQ
to
Oct.
1971
Nov.
1971
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1971
1971
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.3.
820. 5 coincident indicators
1967-100
do
do
117.3
119.6
124.0
do
do
do
do
do
102.9
110.0
104.2
100.7
103.7
115.0
120.3
130.9
120.1
121.3
125.0
124.6
123.9
123.9
126.7
124.4
125.6
126.9
125.2
126.5
128.3
125.2
126.5
128.5
126.0
126.4
1.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0*8
1.7
-0.3
0.2
0.6
3.7
2.1
-0.9
1.7
0.4
1.4
8K
82<
83(
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
813. Marginal employment adjustments
815. Inventory investment and purchasing ....
816 Profitability.-
93.2
93.6
94.0
92.8
92.0
92.7
106.5
103.2
109.2
102.6
113.0
101.9
112.3
101.2
114.2
100.9
NA
113.9
101.7
94.1
98.4
99.3
99.4
98.6
97.5
101.2
111.0
102.3
100.0
106.5
109.3
108.3
104.7
NA
39.8
39.9
39.8
39.5
39.8
40.1
96.7
-0.3
-0.8
-3.3
NA
0.8
-1.1
NA
0.4
1.6
-0.3
3.4
5.2
-1.3
1.8
-0.4
-0.7
2.6
81
81
81.
81<
81'
§1. Employment end Unemployment
LtADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. . . Hours
21. Avg. weekly overtime hours, production
40.6
39.8
do
Per 100 employ..
3.6
4.7
3.0
4.0
2.8
3.8
2.9
3.8
2.9
3.9
2.8
3.9
3.0
3.7
2.9
NA
*5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted4) . . Thousands
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted4) 2. • Per 100 employ..
194
1.2
296
1.8
284
1.6
290
1.5
308
1.7
324
1.7
310
1.5
301
NA
263
122
132
93
83
77
89
80
98
83
98
80
90
80
NA
80
138.1
137.1
0.8
0.8
0.3
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.2
4.3
0.2
NA
2.9
NA
-2.1
0.1
-0.3
0.0
0.1
2
-6.2
-0.2
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies:
50 Number of job vacancies mfg
46. Help-wanted advertising
Thousands
1967=100
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
establishments.
Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Millions
do
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities...
Comprehensive Unemployment:
»43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted^2 . . .Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment
do
rate (inverted4) 2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
do
139.0
70.3
74.3
70.6
75.2
70.4
75.2
137.9
137.7
137.6
70.7
75.3
70.6
75.8
70.9
76.2
138.1
70.8
76.5
139.0
70.9
76.6
-8.2
0.0
0.4
-0.1
0.4
NA
0.0
7.2
3.9
10.1
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
3.5
5.0
5.9
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.8
6.0
0.2
2.1
3.5
3.7
4.2
4.2
4.6
4.4
4.1
0.2
1.5
2.6
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.0
3.4
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.3
-0.4
3.8
5<
4
0.7
4
4
4
-0.1
0.0
4
-0.5
0.0
4
0.0
4
0.0
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
do
-0.1
-0.1
4
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*9nn
PNP in rnrrpnt Hnllarc
*205 GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
Comprehensive Income:
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr ..
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
Ann, rate, bil.dol..
do
1967=100
20
20
4
929.1
974.1
724.7
720.0
110.7
106.7
105.5
106.8
105.9
106.2
106.2
107.0
0.0
0.8
2.2
1.2
1.2
Ann. rate, bil.dol..
do
750.3
803.6
834.3
194.4
197.6
199.8
854.8
203.2
866.1
203.4
871.5
204.5
872.5
205.3
876.0
206.3
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
2.5
1.7
1.3
0.1
5
5
do
do
do
If 238
921.7
357.6
If 333
If 276
If372
If 382
971.3
1017.6 1037.4 1059.7
375.1 393.7 403.6 414.2
If 388
If 376
NA
-0.9
NA
422.6
418.2
NA
-1.0
NA
2.9
1.9
2.5
0.7
2.1
2.6
5
5
5
1967=100
Ann. rate, thous. .
116.2
108.1
106.9
110.3
112.2
111.7
114.0
274.0
266.0
265.9
286.5
294.0
279.3
299.2
NA
NA
2.1
7.1
NA
NA
3.2
7.7
1.7
2.6
1
1
346.0
376.8
366.0
379.0
372.4
373.6
387.0
0.3
-11.0
3.6
-2.9
17.2
-1.3
-5.2
-6.1
3.6
2.0
1/6
1020.8 1043.1 1060.8
729.7
738.4 745.5
1.7
1.0
-0.8
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
#12. Index of net business formation
New Investment Commitments:
356.4
»6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . .Ann.rate,bil.dol..
125
1967=100
8. Construction contracts, total value
90.3
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. . .Ann. rate, bil. dol. .
do
29.6
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
72.9
do
24. New orders, producers' cap. goods indus .
Ann.rate,mil.sq.
9. Construction contracts, commercial
ft. floor space . .
905
and industrial buildings.
28. New private housing units started, total . .Ann. rate, thous. . It 486
116.1
1967=100
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing.
126
128
87.0
25.4
69.5
94.8
150
153
154
137
155
13.1
3.0
95.1
24.4
76.5
94.9
93.6
96.4
23.0
77.1
93.6
21.8
72.4
77.0
81.7
77.8
6.1
-4.8
766
If 457
118.3
679
If8l3
141.0
724
If 962
158.2
745
2f 163
174.0
849
2f002
166.5
741
2f008
190.4
824
2f316
171.9
-12.7
0.3
11.2
15.3
-9.7
77.48
79.06
20.52
74.75
74.36
74.36
74.32
74.72
-0.1
19.73
19.68
-1.4
14.4
6.6
8.2
11.9
5.7
1
1
2
2.9
12.2
10.2
10.0
2
2
-5.5
-3.8
-0.5
-0.3
9
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
5
Bil.dol., EOP...
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
do
97. Backlog of caoital anoroo.. mfe.5
,
84.38
23.54
21.06
0.5
9
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1969
1970
Percent change
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
Sept.
1971
1971
1971
1971
Oct.
1971
Nov.
1971
Sept.
to
Oct.
IstQ
to
Oct.
1971
Nov.
1971
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1971
1971
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip . .Ann.rate,bil.dol. . 75.54
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
do
business construction expenditures • • • •
86.23
79.74
79.32
81.61
80.75
87.52
89.97
91.45
95.01
2.9
96.12
-1.1
61
69
95.36
NA
-0.8
NA
5.7
NA
-3.5
NA
39
42
-2
3
8
0.3
NA
4.9
NA
4.2
50
-1
-1
1
-2
26
48
2
-2
9
-4
32
-23.5
1.6
3.9
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business inventories, all
industries2.
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories237. Purchased materials, percent reporting
Ann. rate, billion
dollars
do
Percent
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
Ann. rate, billion
inventories of materials, supplies2.
dollars
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2 <§).... Percent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
do
slower deliveries <§)
25. Change in unfilled
orders, durable goods Ann. rate, billion
industries2.
dollars
2.8
3.2
5.7
1.1
7.2
7.6
7.5
6.1
50
46
49
57
1.8
0.8
63
55
56
57
55
52
51
65
51
43
52
48
48
50
6.3
-17.2
-1.5
-6.2
-0.5
4.8
5.7
5.3
7.4
11.2
1.6
-6.9
-0.8
3.4
50
-1.6
2.5
9.2
41
-4.6
-0.1
-4.6
245
-1.4
31
-7
-5.0
15.7
37
20
25
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories9. . Bil.dol., EOP... 166.4
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
do
31.31
of finished goods'5
173.6
175.5
177.4
178.9
178.9
179.4
NA
0.3
NA
34.11
34.71
34.31
34.21
34.21
34.63
NA
1*2
NA
111.3
113.9
107.0
108.3
106.1
107.5
107.4
106.9
-0.1
-0.5
97.8
83.2
96.7
101.5
98.6
99.4
97.3
92.8
-2.1
-4.6
44.5
41.2
42.9
46.0
45.2
1.1
0.8
71
-0.3
65
1.2
-2.0
23
5.0
-2.9
19
7.2
-1.7
-1.2
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices©
1967-100
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks © .... 1941-43=10
Prof its and Prof it Margins:
*16. Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries2
15. Profits(after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
Percent ....
Cents
1967-100
9.4
4.8
8.4
4.0
8.4
4.0
8.6
4.4
8.6
4.3
0.2
99.2
97.0
96.1
97.4
97.3
97.1
96.9
97.1
-0.2
106.0
106.2
110.0
110.2
112.5
112.3
113.6
113.4
114.9
114.7
115.0
114.7
115.0
114.5
114.9
114.5
-0.2
0.768
0.810
113.6
0.824
0.829
0.832
116.8
116.5
117.8
118.1
118.2
117.9
0.1
-0.3
0.5
0.0
2.6
-0.5
0.2
0.4
1.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
16
22
15
17
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities fib. 1967-100
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®.
o.o
-0.1
0.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
55
58
0.6
0.4
1.1
68
62
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
. Dollars
1967=100
107.2
-0.3
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
Ann. rate, percent.
3.2
5.3
do
2.3
7.8
2.7
7.5
102. Change in money supply plus time
deposits at comm. banks (M2)
103. Change in money sup. plus time dep. at
banks and nonbank inst (M3) • ......
do
Ann. rate, bil. dol. .
2
do
* 113. Change in consumer installment debt . . .
do
do
Credit Difficulties:
do
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.*4) ®
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans
4 2
Percent, EOP....
(inverted ) '
20.0
8.1
19.8
2.8
0.2
9.1
10.5
3.7
17.8
12.2
4.4
2.9
7.1
6.6
4.2
-0.5
18.7
24.6
14.5
35.2
7.4
5.8
9.1
8.5
NA
NA
3.3
-0.6
43.8
10.4
-2.1
41.2
12.0
20.6
38.5
11.1
-8.3
11.2
93.9
84.8
2.7
1.3
114.0
6.7
0.3
128.0
9.9
142.3
1.14
1.89
2.18
2.28
1.67
1.39
1.74
1.76
1.76
1.98
1.76
1.90
1.80
1.81
Million dollars...
-871
-616
-113
-116
-520
-295
-153
Percent
6.69
8.06
6.12
5.72
6.44
9.05
6.58
6.35
3.86
7.60
5.82
5.25
4.21
8.05
5.88
5.74
5.05
8.09
5.75
5.75
4.67
7.90
5.56
5.37
4.49
7.72
5.46
5.06
-1.0
1.55
NA
-2.7
-0.9
-28.9
-25.2
NA
NA
7.3
10.9
-6.8
85
-5.6
-7.8
102
-4.2
10.6
-7.1
1.4
-1.0
12.3
11.2
103
33
113
112
110
-4.6
26.8
14
0.05
39
4.0
-0.22
NA
-0.01
-149
-142
-4
3
4.19
7.67
5.48
5.20
-0.18
-0.18
-0.10
-0.31
8.6
3.7
9.6
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
Money Market Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate 2 ®
116 Corporate bond yields2 @
115. Treasury bond yields2 ©
117. Municioal bond yields2 (S>
do
do
do
-0.30
-0.05
0.02
0.14
0.35
0.45
0.06
0.49
404
0.84
0.04
-0.13
0.01
93
114
116
115
117
Basic data *•
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1969
1970
IstQ
1971
Percent change
2dQ
3dQ
Sept.
1971
1971
1971
Oct.
1971
NOV.
1971
Sept.
to
Oct.
Oct.
1971
Nov.
1971
to
IstQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1971
1971
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS~Con.
66. Money and Credit— Con.
LAGG/NG INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
Bil.dol., EOF...
66. Consumer installment debt5
*72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding 5. . . .... do
96.2
83.4
99.0
83.6
99.7
83.9
101.4
104.0
104.0
104.9
84.0
86.4
86.4
85.7
85.7
-0.8
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 2@. . . Percent
do
118. Mortgage yields residential 2@
8.21
8.29
8.48
9.03
6.59
NA
6.01
7.67
6.51
7.91
7.84
7.75
7.62
-0.09
1.7
-3.2
-1.2
-9.9
-2.7
-13.1
43.9
46.7
32.5
37.9
-39.9
NA
0.9
NA
0.0
-0.13
1.7
0.1
-0.58
NA
2.6
2.9
0.50
0.24
66
72
67
118
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
500. Merchandise trade balance2
502 Exports excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods except motor
vehicles
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
512. General imports
Ann. rate,bil.dol..
1.3
do
37.3
do
1957-59=100....
Ann. rate, bit. dot..
36.0
14.7
254
2.8
42.7
17.2
253
39.9
45.0
17.8
224
43.2
16.7
248
47.1
17.3
253
47.9
3.2
54.1
18.9
249
50.9
17.9
252
42.4
NA
NA
40.6
-5.3
1.2
-16.7
7.2
16.6
NA
NA
-4.2
-4.9
2.0
500
-2.4
6.4
502
-6.2
10.7
3.6
2.0
1.7
506
508
512
9.0
D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
250.
515.
517.
519.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on goods, services, and remittances
Balance on current account
.
. .
Balance on current account and long term
capital
do
do ... .
. do ....
do
2.0
;
0 .7
-0.9
-2.9
3.6
2.2
0.4
-3.0
4.7
3.3
1.6
-5.1
0.1
-1.3
-3.2
-0.0
-1.6
-3.7
-12.9
-12.4
...
...
...
...
...
-4.6
-4.6
-4.8
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
250
515
517
-7.8
0.5
-14.1
-25.6
519
521
522
1.4
600
-13.1
-0.8
D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts 2
do
601. Federal receipts, national income and
do
product accounts
602. Federal expenditures, national income
do
and product accounts
do
264 National defense purchases
do
616. Defense Dept. obligations, total
do
621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement . . .
647. New orders defense products industries . . . ... do
. . . do
648. New orders defense products
do
625. Military contract awards in U.S
7.3
-13.6
-17.5
-22.6
-21.2
...
...
...
...
...
-5.1
196.9
191.5
195.6
198.3
202.6
1.4
2.2
601
189.5
205.1
213.2
220.9
223.9
3.6
1.4
78.4
81.1
21.0
43.1
23.1
35.4
75.4
79.5
20.1
42.9
23.4
33.4
73.0
83.1
23.5
41.5
24.4
34.1
71.8
77.0
17.1
41.4
19.0
28.9
70.8
80.9
21.0
43.6
26.1
35.8
66.0
13.0
36.2
17.6
31.8
39.0
23.4
29.1
46.9
24.0
NA
33.0
-8.5
602
264
616
621
647
648
625
109.8
106.5
116.3
110.4
119.5
112.5
120.8
113.8
122.0
114.7
122.2
114.5
122.4
114.4
122.6
114.5
-0.1
86.5
78.0
74.5
75.1
73.6
1.56
1.60
1.58
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.56
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
7.7
NA
NA
20.3
-1.6
-7.3
-1.4
-27 c 2
22.8
-0.2
2.6
NA
-22.1
-15.2
0.2
0.1
1.1
1.2
5.1
5.3
37.4
23.9
D4. Price Movements
781. Consumer prices, all items ®
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities (u)
1967=100
do
0.2
1.0
0.8
781
750
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2. . Percent
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
and trade
Ratio
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
859.
857.
NA
3.23
3.03
2.94
2.71
2.73
2.71
2.70
97.0
91.6
84.3
82.1
83.6
84.5
83.7
83.8
«
0.060
0.079
0.081
0.082
0.077
do
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. . 1967-100
Real average hourly earnings, production
1967 dollars.....
Real spendable average weekly earnings,
do
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. •
Vacancy rate in total rental housing 2© - •
1.284
102.8
0.689
103.5
0.460
105.8
0.478
107.0
0.493
107.9
0.469
0.482
0.462
2.91
2.89
2.93
2.94
2.94
2.95
2.94
2.94
90.92
5.0
90.03
4.9
91.57
4.9
92.28
4.9
92.26
92.17
92.97
92.91
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
858.
856.
do
0.6
NA
NOTE:
available.
1967=100
Ratio
-1.5
850
NA
-1.9
0.0
851
-0.4
NA
-7.8
0.7
852
-0.9
0.1
-2.6
1.8
853
0.6
1.2
2.8
-0.3
0.9
-4.1
0.0
-0.1
-6.1
854
3.9
1.1
3.1
0.8
860
858
0.3
0.0
856
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.4
859
857
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by ©, which appear to contain no seasonal movement.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
NA = not
a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period.
For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.
-"•In many cases, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published by the source agencies or they are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series)
are averages or totals of the data as shown in part II.
2
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Index for the latest month excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
^Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1950 51
52
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
DECEMBER 1971
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P T
59
60
61
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Section A
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
T
900-,
800-
700-
220. National iraome, current dolars, Q (ami. rate, bil. dol.)
'"
222. Personal income, current dollars, Q
(ann, rate, bil. dol.)
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
10
DECEMBER 1971
ItCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P T
59
60
61
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/DECEMBER 1971
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
^IStSi
nm
l§p
i|f|
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
a
&M$&
-v'-'"
HI
11:
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
160Annual rate
» *•"
dollars (current)
?{i|| /
BiFs
IS
SO
y^lli!
^A
ff!:
150140130- *
jj*
120110-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
12
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Section A
FOREIGN TRADE
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.)
P
(Nov.)
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
250. Net exports of goods and services,
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
DECEMBER 1971
ltd)
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
260 T
Annual rate. Milton dollars (current)
Government purchases of goods and services*
260. Federal State, and local governments, Q
262. Federal Government Q
264. National defense, Q
266. State and focal governments, Q
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
14
DECEMBER 1971
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Section A
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current!
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
not
DECEMBER 1971
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment,
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
16
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SAVING
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
^lir- "I
and government), 0
tion adjustment, Q
corporatepgts plus to*
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
licit
DECEMBER 1971
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Average workweek, production workers,
rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
18
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Job Vacancies
of job vacancies, mfg. (thousands)
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 68 and 69.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1971
19
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT— Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Comprehensive Unemployment
*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale
45, Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale
1Unemployment rate, married mates (percent-Inverted scale)
234-
\
56-
Lagging Indicators
Long-Duration Unemploym
15 weeks and over (pendent-inverted scale}
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
20
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
1100-
Comprehensive Production
10501000950900850800-
*200. GNP m current Mars, a lann. rate, bil. dol.)
750700-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
ItCIt
DECEMBER 1971
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
anuf acturing and trade sales (bil. doll
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
22
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
13. New business incorporations (thousands)
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
BCII
DECEMBER 1971
23
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
machinery and equipment industries p. dol.)
total lann. rate, millions; MCD moving avg.-5-term
1950
1
51
52
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
24
DECEMBER 1971
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Backlog of Investment Commitments
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1971
25
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
companies reporting Ngner inventories
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
26
DECEMBER 1971
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
Inventory Investment and Purchasing -~
(Nov.)
P
(Nov.)
T
Con
durable goods industries
avg.-4-term)
Lagging Indicators
Bwentories, finished foods (b#. do).
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
DECEMBER 1971
ltd)
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(July)
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
*23. Industrial materials prices [index: 1967=100)
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: W1-43=!0)
Q am. rate, bil. do!.)
aunts aner taxes] to income onpwang,
per
1950
51
52
56
57
58
59
manufacturing, fi (cents)
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
28
DECEMBER 1971
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Lagging Indicators
real corporate gross product, Q (dollars)
950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
DECEMBER 1971
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
•tows of Money and Crec
102. Change in money supply pfas time deposits at commercial banks |M2)
am. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
Bft Change in money supply phis time deposits at banks
and nonbank mstrtutions (M3) (arei. rate, percent;
MCD moving ovg. Storm)
85. Change in money supply (Ml) (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-tenn)
33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bit dol.)
*113. Change in consumer mstaHmetrt debt (ann. rate, btL obi)
m Business loans lann. rate, w. ooi;
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
30
DECEMBER 1971
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Flows of Money and Credit - Con.
110. Total private borrowing, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)
1.0-,
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans
(percent-inverted scale)
'f£?
1.5-
2.0-
2.5 J
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
DECEMBER 1971
ItCII
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
Hi
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
93, Free reserves (bil. dot-inverted scale
mm
ifff
m
T
tfM3 >J3
112. I
;
bond yields (percent)
I—
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
32
DECEMBER 1971
ltd*
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Outstanding Debt
loans outstanding,
mmercial banks (ML dol.)
18. Mortgage y*Ws, residents! (percent)
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
BO!
DECEMBER 1971
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
.Twelve leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted
1, 5,6,10, IMtB, 17,19, 23,ft 31,113)
fc:- *-m
7 830. Six lagging indicators (series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) /
40-
30-1
7
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 77. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
34
DECEMBER 1971
BUI
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
P
T
Index: 1967=100
120-.
ffl
811. Twelve leaders, prior to trend adjustment
(series 1, 5, 6,10,Ifc16,17,19, 23, 29, 31,113)
110100-
9080-
120-
Leading Indicator Subgroups
110-
813. Marginal employment adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5)
100-
90-
80 J
130120110-
814. Capital investment commitments (series 6,10,12, 29)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing [series 23, 25, 31,37)
816. Profitabifty (series 16,17,19]
. Sensitive financial flows (series 33r 85,112,113)
:J
^
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
a
"
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
BCII DECEMBER
1971
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
42n
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 68, 71, and 72.
36
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 73, 74, and 75.
DECEMBER 1971
37
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
750
700
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
merit rate, total (percent--Hiverted scale)
1948
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
38
DECEMBER 1971
IK II
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
and over (percent-inverted scale)
(index: 1967=100)
*72. Commercial
si
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 72, 73, 74, and 76.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1971
39
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
fa) Actual expenditures
ann. rate, ML dol.)
(fa) Second anticipations as
percent of actual (percent)
(c) First anticipations as
percent of actual (percent)
Si H
1957
58
59
60
61
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
40
DECEMBER 1971
ItCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
410. Manufacturers' sties, total value, Q (M. do!.)
412. manufacturers' inventories, total
book value, Q fbil. doI.)
30-
414. Condition of manufacturers'inventories: /
percent considered high less percent /
considered low, Q (percent)
T~
'*-..
*<>*..«
20-
10-
050-
416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity:
percent considered inadequate less percent /*"*
considered excessive, Q (percent)
v x'*
"~ \
40-
/
'•W
^]$0$jjfr\
30-
20-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
BCD DECEMBER 1971
41
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
Actual
Anticipated-
420. Comnt income of households compared to income a year ago, Q
60 n
(a) Percent of households reporting no change in family income (percent)
50-
40-
(b) Percent of households reporting higher family income (percent)
30-
20-
(e) Percent of households reporting lower family income (percent)
10-
0J
20i
425. Mean probability of substarrtial changes in income of households, Q
: ^
(a) Mean probability of increase in family income (percent)
15-
(b) Increase less decrease (percent)
10-
(c) Mean probabity of decrease in family income (percent)
^.
5J
10-
9-
430. Number of new cars purchased by households, Q
(am. rate, mB. cars)
7-
6
t
Factual data (PMC
• »"-•
1 "ii r
i
,i
t
n
110
105
100
II
95
il
90
85
110-
435. Index of consumer sentiment ft (1st Q 1986=100)
10090-
\ /
8070-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
42
DECEMBER 1971
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Section C
•
I Chart C2 ] DIFFUSION INDEXES
;May) (Feb.)
P
I
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal Quarter)
061. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-Q span)
100-
. (a) Actual expenditures
755025-
0100-
75-
c-./ *—2-/—_^
\y
(c) First anticipations
50-
>
25-
01QO~
D440. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
DECEMBER 1971
43
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)
100 T
0458. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
75-
50 J
100 T
0460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
75-
50-
100-1
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)'
75-
50-1
100-1
D464. Selfing prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1
75-
50 J
100 i
0466. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)
75-
50-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
44
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FOREIGN TRADE
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
500. Merchandise trade balance (bil. doi.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
"-"
502. Exports, eg
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
DECEMBER 1971
BCD
45
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
+2.0-,
+1.5+1.0+0.50J
290. Balance on goods and services
aance on
^%
-V
+0.5-i ^
<HJ»
-°-Hs
-1.0-1
SIS. Balance on curent account and long terni capital
-1.0-
521. Net Squidtty balance
522. Official i
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
46
DECEMBER 1971
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services - Con.
44-
40-
36-
E-0
32-
530. Liquid liabilities to alt foreigners, outstanding at end of period
28-
24-
20-
16-
12-
foreign official agencies, outstanding at end of period
4J
24 1
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of period
20.32
8
16-
12 J
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 81. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.
BCII
DECEMBER 1971
47
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants
68-,
64-
60-
56-
Y//A Excess of receipts
Excess of payments
52-
48-
44 J
48 n
Goods and services44-
40-
36-
250. Balance on goods and services
32- j
28-
Merchandise, adjusted-
24-
536. Exports
20-
16-
12-
8-
4J
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 81. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
/1Q
45
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
12 n
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
4-
0J
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
Travel-
4-
§45. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
\
<H
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sales and expenditures547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
4-
012-
Transportation and other services-
8.32
S
4-
0-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 82. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1971
49
Section D
T Chart D2
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Amual rate, billon dollars
Capital Movements Plus Government
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
£23 Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct mvestments+8-
+4-
0-1
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
+8-,
+4-
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities
0-1
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
0-
-4-
-8J
+4-,
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
0-
-4J
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 82. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
50
DECEMBER
1971
ItCII
Section D
Chart D3
OTHER K Y INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(July/ (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.;
P T
(May) (Feb
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Receipts and Expenditures
+20-
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts, Q (arm. rate, oil. dot.)
+10-
0-10-20-
260-,
240220200180-
. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (arm, rate, bit dol.)
160140- c
-
120-
100- '
80-
60-
260 T
240220200180160-
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts, Q {am. rate, oil, dol.)
14012010080-
60-
40-1
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
BCII DECEMBER
1971
51
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
FffilWIffit
*****~ "
264. National defense purchases, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
lOO-i
9080-
>SN
*^^.
S
70-
GO
60509-,
87-
616. Defense Department obligations, total (bit. do).; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
65-
4
1
3-
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
(bil. dot; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
2-
1654-
647. New orders, defense products industries
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
3-
2-
648. New orders,
defense
1J
5
625. Military contract
MCD moving avg.-6-term]
2-
1950
51
52
53* 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
52
DECEMBER 1971
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Section D
PRICE MOVEMENTS
„
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
,..r.. r>,., ;
• • << - '
f:r
-'
• • :.:'•
.--..,„
s;
Sr
v.-:?.1. *;v-- '-f
..
:-'/,
a?.;
', .-'
1 Index:
1967=100
. ,
.
'-^
,
''-'
125-
^
I
/> .,. jr^
- "^j^
fe : ^
>>^
»r,'-
'-A
'" '
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
_y*^
\
"-,-,
j^
"
Rl
•
/ '
''
120115- ;
110-
'
105-
f
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
S%. AH items
58
59
60
61
62
^S
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
BCII DECEMBER
1971
53
Section D
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
(Nov.) (Ncv)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
54
DECEMBER
1971
!!€!»
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
780760740720700-
Gross National Product in 1958 dollars, Q
(am. rate, bil. dol.)
680660640620600580560540520500207. Gap
480460-
440-
420-
400-
380-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersectingactual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 3rd quarter 1971.
ltd*
DECEMBER 1971
55
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
BMI. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing, Q (percent)
mvemones to saies, manufacturing and trade
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
56
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Section
ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
0.10-j
personal saving to disposable personal income, a
0.08-
0.060.04 J
1.6
880. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to number
of persons unemployed {index: 1987=100)
1.2-
0.8-
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm, a (index: 1967-100)
hourly earnings, production workers,
ty earnings, nonagricurtura]
. Vacancy rate in total rental housing, Q (percent)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
ItCII DECEMBER
1971
57
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Percent rising
D1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-21 industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span---)
100-,
500-1
D6. New orders, durable goods industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
100-1
50-
oj
D11. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 industries (3-Q span*~, 1-Q span*-.)1
100-i
50--
034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits-abort 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span)
75-.
50- .
25 J
D19. Stock prim, m common stocks-77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span---]
100-.
50-
oJ
023. Industri
prices-13 industrial materials (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span100-,
50-'.
0-1
D5. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-47 areas (percent dedining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
loo-.
500-1
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.
58
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
ANALYTICAL MUV.'
Section E
!
Chart
E3 ! DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
D41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls-30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
D47. Industrial production-24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span100--I
50-
058. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods-22 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-
100-«
50-
J
OJ
054. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
100-1
500-J
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 88.
DECEMBER 1971
59
Section E
Chart E5
I RATES OF CHANGE
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
+15-1
+10-
+5
0
-5-
205. fc) 6NP in constant dollars (1-Q span)
+10-
+5-
0-5-10-
1-mo. span (b)
3-mo. span (c)
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
-in- oo
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments |
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (seas, adj.]
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult 'Index—Series Finding Guide,* pp. 113 and 114
60
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
Section
DM
F
Chart Fl
1950 51
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
CONSUMER PRICES
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.
BCII
DECEMBER 1971
61
Section F
Chart
F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Index: 1967=100
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
^
66
67
^
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 93 and 94.
62
DECEMBER 1971
IICII
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Section F
STOCK PRICES
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1971
63
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
205. Constant (1958) dollars
200. Current dollars
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
210. Implicit price deflator
b. Difference c. Percent
change
at annual
(Ann. rate, rate
bil. dol.)
a. Total
b. Difference
(Index:
1958-100)
(Index:
1958-100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
834.0
857.4
875.2
890.2
+18.1
+23.4
+17.8
+15.0
+9.2
+11.7
+8.6
+7.1
692.6
705.3
712.3
716.5
+9.0
+12.7
+7.0
+4-2
+5.4
+7.5
+4.0
+2.4
120.4
121.6
122.9
124.3
+1.0
+1.2
+1.3
+1.4
+3.6
+3.9
+4.3
+4.6
906.4
921.8
940.2
948.0
+16.2
+15.4
+18.4
+7.8
+7.5
+6.9
+8.3
+3.3
721.4
724.2
727. B
725.2
+4.9
+2.8
+3.6
-2.6
+2.8
+1.5
+2.0
-1.4
125.6
127.3
129.2
130.7
+1.3
+1.7
+1.9
+1.5
+4.5
+5.3
+6.1
+4.8
956.0
968.5
983.5
988.4
+8.0
+12.5
+15.0
+4.9
+3-4
+5.3
+6.3
+2.0
719.8
721.1
723.3
715.9
-5.4
+1.3
+2.2
-7.4
-3.0
+0.7
+1.3
-4.1
132.8
134.3
136.0
138.1
+2.1
+1.5
+1.7
+2.1
+6.6
+4.6
+5.0
+6.3
+32.4
+22,3
+17.7
+13.8
+9.0
+7.0
729.7
738.4
745.5
+13.8
+8.7
+7.1
+8.0
+4.8
139.9
141.3
142.3
+1.8
+1.4
+1.0
+5.3
+4.0
+3.0
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter. •
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
1,020.8
1,043.1
1,060.8
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
1 NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
215. Per capita 217. Per capita 220. National
income in curGNP, constant
GNPf current
rent dollars
dollars
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
+3.9
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita, 227. Per capita,
current dollars constant(1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann, rate, dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
4,172
4,279
4,356
4,419
3,465
3,520
3,545
3,557
686.6
704.9
720.3
732.7
664.0
681.2
697.8
712.6
575.0
588.3
595.2
605.5
492.3
498.8
500.8
504.3
2,876
2,936
2,962
3,006
2,463
2,489
2,493
2,503
4,490
4,556
4,634
4,658
3,574
3,579
3,587
3,563
745.9
758.9
771.7
778.2
726.8
743.1
759.3
772.2
613.2
625.9
643.2
654-5
506.1
509.8
517.5
520.5
3,037
3,093
3,170
3,216
2,507
2,520
2,550
2,558
4,686
4,735
4,795
4,804
3,528
3,526
3,526
3,480
785.8
793.4
802.2
802.1
784.3
803.8
809.8
816.7
667.6
685.7
696.2
701.5
524.4
533.0
536.0
532.5
3,272
3,353
3,395
3,410
2,570
2,606
4,949
5,045
5,118
3,538
3,571
3,597
828.3
844-5
834.3
854.8
866.1
721.6
740.8
749.2
542.7
551.8
553.2
3,498
3,583
2,631
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
2,613
2,588
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
3 614
2,669
2 669
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The'V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9, 10f and 60.
64
DECEMBER 1971
KCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
230. Total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
232. Durable
goods, total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
234. Automobiles
233. Durable
goods, total except in current dollars
autos, in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
236. Nondurable
goods.in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1968
529.0
544-0
552.5
44.8.4
457.7
460.2
80.4
82.4
86.3
87.0
51.3
53.2
54-6
55.6
29.1
29.2
31.7
31.4
225.0
227.8
233.6
236.9
213.9
218.8
224.1
564.3
575.8
89.5
90.6
89.4
90.3
57.7
59.3
57.7
58.1
31.8
31.3
31.7
32.2
241.5
594.2
465.7
469.0
469.9
472.6
233.4
238.9
245.2
250.8
604.0
474-4
59.7
60.8
60.8
61.4
28.9
29.9
29.6
23.5
259.4
262.9
265.5
270.9
256.1
63.7
66.3
67.2
33.9
34.5
37.5
272.0
279.8
282.0
275.0
280.4
285.7
519.3
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
228.6
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
584-1
246.4
249-4
253.1
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
620.9
624.7
477.9
474.2
88.6
90.7
90.4
84-9
644.6
660.9
672.5
484.8
492.3
496.5
97.6
100.8
104.7
613.8
477.1
260.2
265.0
268.9
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
240. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
244. Residential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
120.0
127.0
126.2
130.7
88.3
87.0
88.8
91.2
30.5
29.6
30.0
31.2
57.9
57.3
58.8
60.1
28.8
30.5
29.7
31.4
+2.9
+9.6
+7.7
+8.1
134.3
137.0
141.8
138.0
95.0
96.6
100.7
102.2
33.1
33.0
36.0
36.0
61.8
63.6
64.7
66.2
32.7
33.6
30.7
30.1
+6.6
+6.8
+10.4
+5.7
131.2
134-1
138.6
137.3
100.8
102.1
104.8
100.8
36.1
36.6
37.3
37.1
64.7
65.6
67.5
63.7
30.0
29.9
28.7
32.8
+0.4
+2.1
+5.1
+3.7
143.8
152.4
153.6
104-3
107.0
109.3
37.9
38.2
39.1
66.3
36.4
39-7
43.3
+1.1
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter,
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
68.8
70.1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages U and 12.
DECEMBER 1971
65
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
B
|U FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
252. Exports
of goods and
services
253. Imports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate
bil. dol.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
260. Total
262. Federal
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
264. Nati'onal
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
+1.9
+3.4
+3.4
+1.3
47.8
50.7
53.1
50.8
45.9
47.3
49.7
49.5
192.9
198.0
201.6
205.7
96.1
98.5
99.8
100.6
76.5
78.3
79.1
79.4
96.8
99.5
101.8
105.1
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. ...
+1.4
+1.2
+2.8
+2.7
48.0
56.9
58.3
59.2
46.6
55.7
55.5
56.6
206.5
207.8
211.5
213.0
99.2
97.7
100.3
99.5
78.3
77.5
79.4
78.4
107.3
110.1
111.2
113.5
+3.5
+4.2
+4.0
+2.7
61.5
63.2
63.7
63.2
58.0
59.0
59.7
60.5
217.3
216.5
220.1
223.7
100.2
96.8
96.1
95.9
78.9
75.1
74.2
73.2
117.1
119.7
124.0
127.9
+4.2
66.1
66.4
68.9
61.9
66.9
68.4
228.2
230.2
234.2
96.7
95.7
97.4
73.0
71.8
70.8
131.5
134.5
136.8
1970
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
-0,5
+0.5
H
Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Durable goods
270. Final sales
(Ann. ratet
bil. dol.)
280. Compensation 282. Proprietors'
of employees
income
Nondurable goods
271. Change in
274. Final sales
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
284. Rental income
of persons
275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
164.5
167.4
172.4
174.0
+2.6
+6.7
+4.5
+6.0
245.8
250.1
256.5
259.1
+0.3
+2.9
+3.1
+2.1
495.2
508.0
521.6
533.6
63.1
63.8
64.6
65.3
21.2
21.1
21.1
21.3
179.1
179.6
181.3
183.4
+3.8
+4.7
+6.5
+3.0
262.2
268.0
274.9
+2.8
+2.1
+4.0
+2.8
545.9
559.1
573.6
583.6
66.7
67.1
67.1
67.2
22.0
22.6
22.7
22.9
181.5
183.7
184-9
173.1
-1.8
-2.0
+4-7
-3.4
279.9
282.9
284.9
290.9
+2.2
+4.0
+0.4
+7.1
593.2
598.5
606.5
609.3
68.0
67.6
66.0
65.9
23.0
23.2
23.4
23.7
188.0
191.5
198.0
+3.8
+2.7
292.0
297.4
302.2
-0.6
+3.0
+1.6
627.9
639.5
647.7
66.0
66.7
68.8
23.8
24.2
24.5
1969
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
271.0
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-0.5
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; *p"» preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 14, 15, and 16.
66
DECEMBER 1971
IIUI
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
E
Year
and
quarter
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
W SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
288. Net interest
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
294. Undistributed 296. Capital consumption
corporate profits
plus inventory valu- allowances
ation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First Quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
31.1
85.4
85.9
84.7
26.1
26.6
27.1
27.8
122.4
129.4
129.3
132.1
41.2
44.6
35.9
37.3
19.1
22.1
22.4
20.1
72.3
73.8
75.2
76.7
-10.2
-11.1
-4.1
-2.0
First quarter ....
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
82.7
80.7
78.0
73.3
28.6
29.4
30.2
31.1
136.2
139.7
145.1
142.9
32.8
33.4
42.3
43.1
16.9
15.3
15.1
10.7
78.4
80.2
82.1
83.9
+8.2
+10.7
+5.6
+5.3
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter ....
1971
69.8
71.5
73.0
69.0
31.8
32.6
33.4
34.2
139.0
141.1
142.6
138.3
46.2
54.2
57.4
58.5
10.8
12.2
12.2
11.7
85.4
86.9
88.2
89.8
-3.4
-12.2
-15.2
-21.7
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
75.5
78.3
35.0
35.8
36.4
149.8
152.7
58.4
60.9
13.8
15.4
r!3.2
95.6
97.3
99.5
-17.9
-21.0
-17.5
1970
r76.7
r!52.8
57.7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal jnovement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16 and 17.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1971
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
QH EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
*1. Average
workweek of
production workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
*5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs1
(Per 100
employees)
(Hours)
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
1969
January
February
March
40.6
40.3
40.8
3.7
3.5
3.7
4-9
4.7
4.9
179
186
185
1.1
1.1
1.1
April
May
June
40.8
40.7
40.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
4-9
4.7
4.9
181
182
197
1.0
July
August
September . .
40.6
40.6
40.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
4.7
4.5
4.8
195
196
l.l
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
40.5
40.5
40.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
4.6
4-4
4-5
202
211
210
1.3
1.2
40.2
40-2
40.1
3.3
3.2
3.2
4-3
4.4
4.2
April
May
June
39^9
39.8
39.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
July
August
September
40.1
39.8
39.3
October
November
December
50. Number of
job vacancies,
mfg. ®
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspaper
(Thous.)
(1967=100)
120
123
124
293
290
240
126
125
122
256
312
288
122
120
126
1.4
242
209
185
122
119
117
232
250
263
1.5
1.6
1.7
186
170
165
109
109
103
4.0
4.1
4.0
326
313
303
2.0
1.8
1.9
158
151
123
99
99
92
3.0
2.9
2.8
4.1
4.1
3.8
265
288
338
1.6
1.8
1.9
126
137
118
91
89
85
39-4
39.6
39.5
2.8
2.7
2.7
3.6
3.7
3.8
341
338
297
2.1
2.0
1.8
93
76
77
r77
80
80
January
February
March
39.8
39.8
39.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.8
3.7
3.9
282
278
291
1.7
1.5
1.5
81
80
83
75
77
78
April
May
June
39.8
40.0
40.0
2.9
•3.0
2.9
4.0
3.8
3.7
274
296
301
1.6
1.5
1.5
93
95
89
78
79
83
July
August
September
40.0
3.0
2.9
3.7
H> 274
[ON /.2
1.5
1.9
H> 106
2 8
r3i9
327
324
p3.7
(NA)
310
[H)pl«5
p301
(M)
200
1.1
l.i
1.2
1.2
1971
3Q 8
r^9 5
r39 8
October
November
December
rri\-n/0
1
^P^.U.-L
[Pf>r3.0
p2.9
rl.7
90
85
Iff) 85
80
W
r98
p90
80
p80
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [fi>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a" f anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 18, 19, and 36.
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
68
DECEMBER
1971
BUI
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
BHj EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
n nonagricultural
establishments
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
1969
January
.
February
March
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
....
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
*43. Unemployment rate, total
(Thous.)
(Percent)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over 2
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
137.25
137.26
138.20
69,287
69,529
69,766
73,271
73,682
73,870
3.4
3.3
3.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.4
1.4
1.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
April .
May .
June .
138.54
139.12
139-30
69,941
70,171
70,368
73,895
73,675
74,110
3.5
3.4
3.4
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
July
August
September
139.24
139.69
139.77
70,406
70, 512
70,616
74,365
74,582
74,696
3.5
3.5
3.8
2.1
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.5
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
October
November
December
139.95
139-95
140.12
70, 827
70, 797
70, 912
75,000
75,088
75,298
3.7
3.5
3.6
2.2
2.3
0.5
2.4
1.6
1.5
1.7
January
February
March
139.21
139.47
139.62
70, 873
70,988
71, 147
75,504
75,300
75,436
3.9
4.2
4-4
2.5
2.6
2.7
1.9
2.0
2.2
0.5
0.6
0.7
April
May
June
139.05
138.46
138.25
71,063
70, 796
70, 634
75,317
75,031
74,763
4.7
4.9
4.8
3.1
3.5
3.7
2.3
2.5
2.5
0.7
0.7
0.8
July
August
September
138.47
137.76
137.05
70, 605
70, 445
70, 480
75,066
75,073
75,043
5.0
5.1
5.4
3.5
3.7
4.3
2.7
2.8
2.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
October
November
December
1971
136.52
136.45
137.0^
70, 082
69, 985
70,313
75,398
75,197
75,055
5.5
5.9
6.2
4.4
4.4
3.0
3.2
3.4
0.9
1.1
1.3
January
February
March
137.36
136.65
137.38
70,454
70,39<1
70,480
75,451
75,208
75,079
6.0
5.8
6.0
3.7
3.8
3.3
3.2
3.2
1.3
|H>3.7
April
May
June
137.56
138^07
^•37 99
70,5Q9
70,769
70 657
75,140
75,503
6.1
6.2
GB)5.6
3.9
4.3
4.3
3.1
3.3
3.1
1.3
1.4
1.4
~] or? Ql
or* CQ-I
rjc
i r\
4»U
i -\
i A
3•1
i
i A
l.D
-i r
q o
JO
1 5
•P/ /
[fft 3 0
15
•n/ 1
^3.°
1.5
...
0.5
0.5
1970
July
August
September
October
November
December
137.67
r 13 7. 64
. ..
-r>l
?#
rjj\_.-lQC>
.. ..
T?
QQ
jH)pjje.yy
70 ^29
si^Q
r•Yi"7ri
/u,op;>
•p7n #31
|H/P/u,:7J-2
[UiVn^n Ql £>
75 1AQ
CiJ /
o,->/4
7*5 782
7A 1 AQ
76 /76
[CfwA A2Q
r &
POO
A i
6 0
*> #
6 0
4.0
0
0
1.3
1.3
-L.P
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [R>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 19, 20, 38, and 39.
-"•Data
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
3
No current high.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1971
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Rl PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, A ND TRADE
TIMING CLASS ....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Production
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Income
*200. Gross na- *205. Gross na- *47. Index of
industrial protional product
tional product
duction
in 1958 dollars
in current dollars
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1967 = 100)
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales
(Mil. dol.)
57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
O
1969
*54. Sales of
retail stores
(Mil. dol.)
C1)
January
February
March
906.4
721.4
108.4
109.7
110.3
720.8
726.1
733.4
187.3
187.6
190.9
r99,937
rlOO,999
r!01,662
899.8
r29,384
r29,6l6
r29,321
April
May
June
921.8
724.2
110.2
110.2
110.8
738.1
742.9
748.1
192.0
192.9
194.9
r!02,172
r!02,777
r!03,213
915.6
r29,683
r29,717
r29,657
July
August
September
940*. 6
72?'.8
111.5
111.4
111.9
754.1
759.5
764.3
195.8
196.8
197.8
r!03,034
rlQ4,285
r!05,123
929.8
r29,552
r29,841
r30,058
October .
November
December
943 '.6
725*. 2
111.7
110.3
109.9
768.0
772.1
776.5
198.6
198.3
200.2
r!05,729
r!04,870
r!04,379
942.*5
r30,262
r30,197
r30,268
956*. 6
719*8
107.4
108.0
107.6
780.1
783.5
789.4
198.5
198.2
200.2
r!04,904
r!05,870
r!05,657
955*.*6
r30,334
r30,669
r30,695
968 '.5
721.1
107.5
107.5
107.6
808.0
802.0
801.4
198.7
197.1
197.4
r!04»807
rl06x758
r!07,389
966.'5*
r31,005
r31,198
r31,293
July
August
September
98*3.5
723.3
107.5
107.5
106.5
805.3
809.0
814.9
198.3
198.5
198.0
r!07,626
r!08,052
107,738
97^4
r31,601
r31,710
31,951
October
November
December
988.4.
715.9
103.7
102.6
104.6
813.6
815.7
820.9
193.4
193.4
198.9
105., 610
104,485
106,943
984*7
31,621
31,282
31,761
January
February
March
1,020.8
729.7
105.3
105.7
105.5
830.0
833.2
839,7
199.5
199.1
200.8
109,346
111,166
112,740
1,017.6
32,290
32,^50
r33,274
April
May
June
1,043*1
738*4
106.2
107.0
D 107.2
844.4
850.0
870.1
201.9
203.6
204.0
113,155
114,303
115,531
1,03 7.*4
33,578
33,502
33,827
E> 1,060*. 8
E> 74V.5
106.1
105.3
r!06.2
859.2
867.6
871.5
202.7
203.1
204.5
114,727
115,064
Dr 115 ,660
H> i'0^'7
33,688
34,655
[H)r35,219
r!06.2
p!07.0
r872.?
|H)p876.0
r205.3
[H}p206.3
P114,680
1970
January
February ...
March
April
May
June
.
. .
1971
July
August
September
October .
November
December
p34,846
(m)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21, 11, and 38.
•"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
70
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
Hj FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
....
Formation of Business
Enterprises
Minor Economic
Process
*12. Index of net
business formation
Year
and
month
(1967 = 100L
. . .
.
..
'nvestment Commitments
New
13. Number of new
business incorporations
(Number)
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value I
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil. dol.)
(1967-100)
(Bil. dol.)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1
(Bil. dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, producers' capital
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
1969
January
February
March
117.2
117.2
116.6
21,364
22,105
22,083
28.76
April
May
June
117.0
116.6
116.8
July.
.
August
September .
October
November . .
December . .
29*48
132
132
117
£ 3£
7 3/
7 P£>
23,262
23,118
23,439
30.14
118
29.74
28.60
135
120
7 78
7 73
116.9
116.2
114-8
23,366
22,871
22,594
30.52
29*61
116
139
112
7 3#
116.1
114-3
114-9
24,263
23,125
22,404
30.10
29,80
29,22
126
115
HI
7.3A
7.11
7.84
7 LL
5 80
5 Q8
6.00
January
February
March
114.5
114.2
29.23
28.64
28.45
131
137
132
8.38
7.77
7.06
6.65
110.7.
22,397
23,152
21,383
6.15
6.02
5.54
April
May
June
109.7
107.8
107.0
21,939
22,267
22,192
28.10
7.67
6.90
7.18
6.42
29.61
130
110
120
5.53
5.66
5.80
July
August
September
106.1
105.2
105.5
22,106
22,055
22,372
30.07
29.75
28.36
116
135
118
7.35
7.09
6.86
6.46
5.90
5.68
5.61
October
November
December
105.9
105.6
104.5
21,625
22,382
22,085
26.78
27.56
6.58
7.18
7.01
5.90
30.14
115
130
132
5.84
5.87
5.92
105.8
105.6
109.2
22,338
20,923
23,220
31-67
31.07
31.47
117
126
142
7.80
8.12
7.77
5.76
6.44
6.62
6.22
April
May
June
109.2
109.8
111.8
22,770
24,168
30.23
30.60
30.67
7.88
7.77
7.74
5.44
July
August
September
112.0
112.9
29 38
31.03
6
A* £n
7 75
7.27
7 07
7 77
fY7
A m
A n/
6 62
6 14
5 QQ
6 m
7 60
E <JK
& /Q
1970
29.33
1971
January ...
February
March
October
November
December
.
rill. 7
[H)pll4.0
(m)
24 691
p£ 07-2
fDXor - I / O
r
Y.QQ O 7J^
24,936
(M)
0-1
Q/l
J1.7O
11 7£
on r»o
;)1.U;5
rpJ-.-U
OC
[H)PJ>^.^:>
•K»°.T
[|j\_.oo
1 ^,
H)l6l
141
147
i <n
IP!
-| rq
1ri
Ip4
1 7*7
-U /
-| cc
6 0 24
7.52
fO\ d or
In/ 0..?.?
n/ • en
7-L
r7.80
rt /-\o
po.O^
5.6$
6.19
fu\r>A
in
|H^po.j.u
6.15
6 55
6 42
fuN
#1
[n/ Ao.oj•nA y ^
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [R); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23, 24, and 36.
^•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company,, F. W. Dodge Division (series 8), or The Conference Board (series 11).
KCII
DECEMBER 1971
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
H FIXE!) CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
New Investment Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment Commitments
Investment Expenditures
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings1
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)
28. New private
housing units
started, total
(Ann. rate, thous.)
*29. Index of new 96. Manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
private housing
units authorized by durable goods
industries
local building
permits
(1967-100)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(3}
1970
January .
February .
March . . .
88.86
80.95
67.11
1,059
1,306
1,392
100.1
84.17
83.25
96.8
82.46
April
May
June
6^.00
58.19
54.47
1,224
1,242
1,393
104.7
117.1
115.0
81.51
80.91
80.41
July
August
September
70.45
61.04
60.16
1,603
1,425
1,509
117.2
123.0
123.5
80.30
79.57
78.02
October
November
December
51.71
54-00
54.69
1,583
1,693
2,054
136.5
133.5
158.5
76.65
76.53
77.48
1971
January .
February
March
54.37
50.04
65.44
1,725
1,754
1,959
143.3
137.0
142.6
78.98
[H>79.20
79.06
April . . .
May
June
54.82
63.40
62.83
1,912
1,975
2,000
143.6
168.9
162.1
77.98
76.73
74.75
July
August ...
September
60.67
54.82
B>70.72
2,229
2,258
r2,002
179.8
175.8
166.5
74.58
74.88
74.36
61.75
68.70
r2,008
[H>P2,316
[H> rl90.4
P171.9
r74.32
P74.72
October
November
December
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing1"
93.5
78.22
r87.20
r88.34
r87.99
80.22
r85 . 82
r89.49
r88.66
81.88
r89.63
r88.91
r87.36
78.63
r85.55
r85.41
r85.94
79.32
89.93
89.01
90.98
|H)8l.6l
89.05
91.24
94.06
80.75
93.77
95.14
[H)r96.12
23.25
22.56
21.88
21.06
20.52
19.73
p!9.68
ra84.02
P95.36
(M)
1972
January
February
March
a87.14
April
May
June
a88.47
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by |R>; for series that move counter to movements in generaj business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 24, 25, 36, and 39.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division (series 9), or The Conference Board (series 97).
2
No current high. 3See "Nev Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
72
DECEMBER 1971 l»lj)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
ffl
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
Inventories
Minor Economic
Process
245. Change in *31. Change in
business
book value of
inventories
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
Year
and
month
37. Purchased
materials, com
panies reporting higher
inventories
(Percent
reporting)
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Production
materials, companies reporting
commitments 6C
days or longer®
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
25. Change in
performance, unfilled orders,
companies re- durable goods
porting slower industries
deliveries®
(Percent
(Bil.dol.)
reporting)
Revised I
1969
January
February
March
+6.6
April
May
June
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
(Bil.dol.)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods,
book value
(Bil.dol.)
1
Revised
+13.4
+12.7
43
47
49
+1.7
+0.8
+3.4
57
58
63
62
61
61
-0.10
+0.18
+0.29
155.98
157.10
158.15
28.89
29.15
29.41
+6.8
+10.5
+11.6
+10.3
49
51
49
+2.2
+2.4
-0.2
65
64
66
68
69
70
+1.00
+0.81
-0.80
159.03
159.99
160. £5
29.64
30.00
30.16
July
August
September
+10.4
+10.8
+9.3
+13.5
50
51
50
+1.1
+0.1
+2.1
59
63
65
66
68
66
+1.09
-0.60
+0.54
161.75
162.52
163.65
30.33
30.53
30.75
October
November
December
+5.7
+14.5
+7.1
+11.6
54
57
48
+3.2
+1.4
+2.9
63
65
65
65
62
64
-0.43
-0.11
-0.31
164. £6
165.45
166.41
30.83
31.16
31.31
January
February
March
+0.4
+3.3
+12.0
+4.0
50
50
51
-1.2
+2.2
+0.9
61
62
56
56
58
50
-0.21
-0.92
-0.79
166.69
167.69
168.02
31.62
32.00
32.12
Apri 1
May
June
+2.1
+13.7
-1.8
+11.0
45
40
46
-0.9
-2.1
+0.1
60
57
55
52
72
69
-0.95
-0.60
^0.50
169.16
169.01
169.93
32.67
32.70
32.87
July..
August
September
H>+14.3
+6.7
+6.7
46
+5.1
47
+O.1
+1.0
+0.8
52
50
52
50
45
45
-0.10
-0.74
-1.54
171.12
171.68
172.-24
33.10
33.33
33.53
+3.7
+4.2
+9.4
+3.1
46
47
44
+2.9
+3.5
+2.4
54
54
52
38
36
36
-1.37
-0.12
+0.96
172.59'
173.37
173 .-64
33.94
34.24
34.11
+3.2
+9,3
+5.1
+8.4.
46
49
51
+0.6
-0,7
-2.2.
52
|H>59
56
38
44
46
(H)+1.50
+0.22
-0.14
174.41
174.83175.54
34.38
34-49
[H> 34.71
...
[H)+5.7
+8,9
+9.3
+4-3
57
55
58
[H>+4..7
+2.4
+3.2
57
55
58
52
-:uo8
50
-1.25
-1.98
176.28
177.05'
177,40
34*45
34,46
34.31
+1 1
+3.0
+6.1
+9.2
55
49
/ £
40
177 65
178 16
178 92
33.95
34.00
CO
0 16
+0.30
n ^9
+8.9
1970
...
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
. . .
July
August
September
October
November
December
I|J\
P+5.7
(NA)
51
41
+2 0
2 2
-4 6
qq
42
+0.3
(NA)
CO
Kjrj
50
r-0 04
p+0 40
/*7\
'
3A 21
3A 63
(NA.)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
IB). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26, 27, 37, and 39.
1
See "New Features and Changes for-This Issue,"
ItO
DECEMBER 1971
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS
modfS" Stock Prices
*23. Index of
ndustrial
materials
3rices®
Year
and
month
(1967=100)
Profits and Profit Margins
*19. Index of * 16. Corpostock prices, rate profits
500 common after taxes
stocks®
(1941-43=10)
22. Ratio of
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
(Ann. rate, indus.
(Percent)
bil. dol.)
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all mfg
corp.
(Cents)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
*17. Ratio, 55. Index of
price to unit wholesale
labor cost
prices, indus.
index, mfg.
commod. ®
(1967 = 100)
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods ®
(1967-100) i (1967-100)
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per unit
of gross prod.
(1958 dol.),
nonfin. corp.
(Dollars)
*62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.
(1967 = 100)
1969
January
February
March
103.0
105.9
106.5
102.04
101.46
99.30
April
May
June
108.9
110.0
111.2
101.26
104.62
July
August
September
112.0
114.5
116.9
October
November
December
46.9
10.2
5.0
9S.8
100.4
99,8
104.3
104.9
105.4
104.3
104-9
105.2
0.750
105.6
104.5
105.4
45.9
9.8
4.9
99.2:
99.2
99.4
105.5
105.5
105.6
105.4
105.8
106.3
0.761
106.3
106.7
106.9
94.71
94.18
94.51
43.0
8.9
4.8
100.1
99.3
99.2
105.7
106,1
106.5
106.5
106.5
106.8
0.773
106.4
107.3
107.7
115.1
115.1
116.7
95.52
96.21
91.11
42.3
8.7
4-5
99.0
98.4
97.2
107.1
107.4
107.8
107.4
107.8
108.1
0.786
108.5
109.5
111.2
January
February
March
118.9
119.5
118.7
90.31
87.16
88.65
41.5
8.5
4.1
96.1
97.3
96.6
108.3
108.7
108.9
108.8
109.1
109.3
0.798
113.2
112.1
113.2
April
May
June
118.2
117.5
114.8
85.95
76.06
75.59
41.3
8.5
4-3
97.2
97.9
98.0
109.3
109.7
109.8
109.6
109.7
110.0
0.801
112.7
112.0
-112.2
July
August .
September
112.4
111.2
110.5
75.72
77.92
82.58
42.9
8.7
4.0
98.5
97.4
96.9
110.0
110.2
110.4
110.6
110.6
110.8
0.811
112.3
113.6
114-4
October
November
December
109.5
108.9
106.4
84.37
84.28
90.05
39-2
7.9
3.6
96.9
96.0
95.1
111.3
111.3
111.7
111.2
111.2
111.2
0.829
114.8
115.8
116.9
105.9
107.2
107.8
93.49
97.11
99.60
42.9
8.4
/ 0
95.8
96.7
95.8
112.2
112.5
112.8
111.8
112.4
112.7
0.8%
116,7
116... 2
117.6
D110..2
108.6
106.1
Dl03. °4
101.64
99.72
H) 46.0
8.6
D4.4
96.8
97-7
97,6
113.3
113.7
113.9
113.0
113.5
113.8
0.829
116.7
116.2
116.6
July
August
September
104.7
106.1
107.5
99.00
97.24
99.40
r45.2
8.6
4.3
H> 97.9
" 97.0
r97.1
114-5
|H>115.1
115.0
114-5
[H>114.9
114.7
E> 0.832
116.9
1)118.4
rll8.1
October
November
December
107.4
106.9
1
106.3
97.29
92.78
2
98.04
r96.9
p97.1
115.0
114.9
114.5
114.5
99. U
1970
.
..
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
|H>
rl!8,2
pl!7.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by |R); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28, 29, 37, and 39.
^Average for December 7 and 14.
Average for December 1,. 8, .15, and £2.
3
74
DECEMBER 1971
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
•
Qj MONEY AND CREDIT
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Flows of Money and Credit
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply (Ml)
Year
and
month
102. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at comm.
banks (M2)
103. Change in
money sup. pi us
time dep, at
banks and
nonbank inst.
(M3)(Ann. rate,
percent)
2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
2
2
33. Net change
in mortgage
debt held by
fin. inst. and
life insurance
companies x
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Credit Difficulties
*113. Net
change in
consumer
installment
debt
112. Change
in business
loans
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures®
(Mil. dol.)
( )
( )
January
February
March
r+6.08
r+6.65
r+4.81
r+7.62
r+5.99
+4.39
r+7.13
r+6.04
r+4.77
+20.12
+23.84
+20.16
+7.69
+9.58
+7.75
+14.88
+8.88
+8.35
97,888
75.03
89.99
84.12
April
r+4.19
r+2,39
r+4.77
r+4.38
r+2.49
r+4.98
+4.13
r+3.09
r+4.31
+22.02
+19.45
+22.15
+9.12
+10.15
+9.54
+16.76
+14.09
+13.01
103,028
118.76
92.60
91.92
July
August
September
+4-. 15
r-2,96
r-KL.78
r-1,55
r-5,58
r+0.93
r-0.20
r-3.27
r+1.64
+17.56
+21.07
+20.95
+7.46
+7.20
+8.38
+6.17
+9.95
+12.06
89,148
112.73
62.83
73.70
October
November
December
r+2.96
+1.77
r+1.18
r+1.56
+18.77
+19.63
+14.36
+8.03
+7.44
+4.98
+14.21
+6.65
+8.86
85,656
r+0.62
r+1.64
r+2.05
r+1.43
116.44
127.14
96.85
+10.60
-4.67
+11.72
+5.27
+3.06
-3.40
-2.44
+7.54
+4.56
+5.02
+2.38
-1.92
+12.29
+2.80
78,312
+9.29
+17.32
+14.53
+13.84
137.28
139.39
120.02
+9.29
+4.03
+2.30
+10.76
+13.68
+17.93
+21.47
+3.55
+4.98
+5.29
+3.70
+5.65
+2.15
87,700
+5.75
+9.32
+6.83
+6.00
131.90
147.89
170.50
July
August
September
+5.16
+7.42
+6.81
KL0.85
+11.65
+10.65
+10.54
•HL0.84
+9.96
+22.46
+20.60
+23.94
+5.32
+2.78
+4.31
+2.15
+7.45
+0.12
82,444
251.92
169.59
232.94
October
November
December
+1.69
+2.82
+6.74
f8.21
f6.70
fll.30
+9.11
+7.88
-1-11.46
+23.36
+20.22
+27.90
-0.98
-3.62
+0.25
-18.97
-8.00
-4.99
90,600
144.77
119.84
121.72
+2.79
+13.38
+11.02
+14.06
(H) f20.70
+18.68
+15.90
H> +20.92
+19.27
+21.34
+22.75
+29.64
+1.04
+1.22
+5.94
-3 77
+5.86
+1.80
114,036
168 80
150.90
224.65
+8.19
[H) +14.10
+9.12
+12.08
+13.86
+10.75
+15.72
+15.34
r+12.50
+29.88
+34.38
+41.42
+7.96
+5.92
+6.30
-7.28
+7.12
127,976
153.80
249.49
165.84
July
August
September
flO.ll
+3.17
r-2.11
+7.46
+2.91
r+2.90
r+10.28
r+6.05
r+5.85
[H>+45.29
r+44.87
r+41.22
+9.13
+9.92
(H)+11.99
+15.61
H) +20.58
October
November
December
r+0.53
pO.OO
3
+3.69
r+7.11
p+6.55
^+8.36
r+9.07
p+8,49
p+38.54
+11.09
(NA)
p-0.96
( )
1969
May
June
+1.87
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment
loans
(Percent)
1.55
1.61
1.65
1.70
1.72
1.76
1970
January
February
March
April
May
June..
....
f7.01
1.80
1.76
1.82
1.89
1.92
1.90
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
(N/0
+1.00
-6.54
-8.32
[H)pl42,280
147.03
155.56
[H) 115. 85
"144.70
129.00
1.80
[H)1.68
1.81
1.76
1.98
-6.85
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14r 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p ff , preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31, and 37.
'"'Beginning with October 1970, data include conventional mortgages held by the Government National Mortgage Association.
%ee "New Features and Changes Tor This Issue," page iii. 3Average for weeks ended December 1 and 8.
Average for weeks
ended December 1, 8, and 15.
) DECEMBER 1971
/J
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^1 MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Process and Cyclical Timing
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
nnKtanriino
uutsianoing npht
ueot
Money Market Interest Rates
Refers
93. Free
reserves®
LAGGING INDICATORS
114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer *72. Commercia
bond yields® bond yields® bond yields® installment
bill rate®
and industrial
debt
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Interest Rates on Business
Loans an(j Mortgages
*67. Bank
118. Mortgage
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential ®
loans, 35
cities ® x 2
(Percent)
(Percent)
1969
7.29
7.33
7.76
5.74
5.86
6.05
4.85
4.98
5.26
88,729
89,527
90,173
73,450
74,190
74,886
7.32
-701
6.18
6.16
6.08
Apri 1
May
June
-844.
-1,102
-1,064
6.15
6.08
6.49
7.54
7.62
8.04
5.84
5.85
6.05
5.19
5.33
5.76
90,933
91,779
92,574
76,283
77,457
78,541
7.86
8.06
8.06
8.35
July
August
September
-1,074
-946
-831
7.00
7.01
7.13
8.06
8.05
8.36
6.07
6.02
6.32
5.75
6.00
6.26
93,196
93,796
94,494
79 : Q55
79,884
80 889
8.82
8.36
8.36
8.40
October .
November
December
-992
-988
-829
7.04
7.19
7.72
8.46
8.94
9.22
6.27
6.52
6.81
6.09
6.30
6.82
95,163
95,783
96,198
82 073
82,627
83,365
8.83
8.48
8.48
8.62
January
February
March .
-799
-819
-781
7.91
7.16
6.71
9.00
8.84
9.00
6.86
6.44
6.39
6.65
6.36
6.03
96,578
96,996
97,194
83,205
84 22°
84 46 ?
8.86
(M)
9.29
9.20
April
May
June
-704
-795
-701
6.48
7.04
6.74
9.09
9.53
9.70
6.53
6.94
6.99
6.49
7.00
6.96
97,490
97,905
98,346
84 , 770
85,241
85,420
8.49
9.10
9.11
9.16
6.50
6.41
6.24
9.09
9.08
9.00
6.57
6.75
6.63
6.53
6.20
6.25
98,789
99,021
99,380
85,599
86,220
86,230
8.50
9.11
9.07
9.01
8.97
8.90
8.40
-480
-596
January
February
March
(NA)
7.99
8 05
1970
July
August
September
-1,217
-682
-335
October
November
December . .
1971
-208
-305
-49
5.93
5.29
4.86
9.14
8.97
8.13
6.59
6.24
5.97
6.39
5.93
5.46
99,298
98,996
99,017
84, 64Q
83,982
83,566
8.07
January
February
March
-91
-127
-120
4-49
3.77
3.32
7.63
7.54
7.62
5.92
5.84
5.71
5.36
5.23
5.17
99,104
99,206
99,701
83,252
83 , 740
83,890
r6.59
April
May
June
5.75
-18
-322
100,364
100,857
101,382
83,283
83,876
83,959
r6.0l
5.94
5.37
5.90
5.95
5.91
ffiT> A n£
83 414
84 715
[H) 86 430
r6 51
85,737
p85,657
3
85, 086
6.18
-3
3.78
4.1 L
4.70
7.76
B>8.25
8.15
July
August
September
[H) -658
-606
-295
E> 5.40
8;24
5.08
4.67
8 14
7.90
October
November
December
r-153
p-149
3
-14
4.49
4.19
4.10
5
7.72
7.67
7.60
D 5.96
B
e. 73
c 30
5 56
5.37
5.46
5.48
5.60
5.06
5.20
5.29
6
-|f\9
1 / Q
1U^,14J5
102 970
103 ,'969
Dl04,893
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
7.32
7.37
7.75
7.89
[H) 7.97
7 92
7.84
7.75
7.62
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by |R>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 39.
1
No current high. 2The survey in which these data are collected was revised, beginning with the 1st quarter 1971; thus,
data from that point are not strictly comparable withfa earlier data. 3 Average for weeks ended December 1, 8, and 15,
6
Average for weeks ended December 2, 9, 16, and 23. Average for weeks ended December 3, 10, and 17.
Average for weeks
ended December 2, 9, and 16.
76
DECEMBER 1971
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
Q COMPOSITE INDEXES
810. Twelve
leaders, reverse trend adusted1 (series
1,5,6,10,12,
811. Twelve
leaders, prior
to trend adjustment (same
components as
16, 17, 19, 23, in series 810)
29,31,113)
Year
and
month
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
820. Five
coinciders, estimated aggregate economic
activity (series
41, 43, 47, 52,
56)
(1967=100)
830. Six
laggers (series
44, 61, 62, 67,
813. Marginal
71, 72) 2
employment adjustments
(series 1,2, 3,
5)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12, 29)
(1967=100)
817. Sensitive
815. Inventory 816. Profitinvestment and ability (series financial flows
purchasing
(series 33, 85,
16, 17, 19)
(series 23, 25,
112, 113)
31,37)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
1969
January
February
March
114.8
116.4
116.1
107.2
108.3
107.6
115.3
116.8
117.6
116.0
117.4
119.0
103.6
103.5
103.9
110.9
111.7
110.0
100.6
103.1
103.0
101.9
102.5
101.9
105.9
106.2
104.5
April
June
118.0
118.2
117.5
109.0
108.7
107.7
118.1
119.1
119.9
119.8
121.3
123.4
104.7
104.0
103.6
111.7
110.0
109.8
104.6
104.5
103.0
102.2
103.1
101.8
105.3
105.7
105.7
July
August
September
117.6
117.5
118.5
107.4
106.9
107.4
120.2
121.0
121.1
125.1
127.4
128.2
103.0
102.3
102.6
110.1
109.7
109.9
105.3
105.0
105.7
100.6
99.6
99.5
102.1
102.5
102.7
October
November
December
118.2
117.4
117.6
106.7
105.6
105.4
121.9
121 .9
121 .9
129.2
129.9
131.1
101.9
101.2
100.4
109.1
108.5
109.1
105.9
105.2
105.1
99.3
98.9
96.8
102.6
101.9
99.1
January
February
March
116.2
116.5
115.0
103.7
103.7
101.9
121.0
121.2
121.2
131.9
131.4
131.2
98.3
96.6
94.1
108.0
108.4
105.6
103.9
105.4
104.8
96.5
95.8
95.9
99.2
100.0
98.8
April .
June
114.9
113.8
114.4
101.5
100.1
100.3
121.6
121.0
121.0
131.3
131.0
131.0
93.2
92.9
93.3
106.1
106.3
106.0
104.2'
102.4
103.6
95.5
92.8
92.9
100.6
100.5
100.6
July
August
September
116.2
115.2
114.5
101.5
100.2
99.3
120.9
120.8
120.4
131.7
132.3
131.9
94.4
92.9
90.9
106.5
106.3
105.6
104.2
102.5
102.1
93.5
93.6
93.6
101.4
100.1
98.3
October
November
December
113.6
113.7
98.1
97.8
99.5
118.4
117.4
118.9
130.7
129.3
127.5
89.4
90.4
91.9
105.6
106.2
107.9
101.3
102.6
rlOl.8
93.3
92.0
93.3
93.7
91.4
96.5
118.5
101.2
101.9
r 126.0
r!03.4
120.6
121.4
122.0
93.1
93.7
94.1
108.9
108.6
110.1
r!02.9
r!02.3
1-102.7
95.2
97.2
97.6
98.5
100.4
104.7
r!04.8
r!05.2
r!04.7
122.6
123.5
125.6
r!24.0
rl23.4
June
r!25.0
r!24.9
94.1
93.9
D94.1
109.8
111.4
111.8
E> rl03.3
r!02.6
rlOl.l
99.6
[H>100.5
r99.9
105.9
105.7
108.0
July
August
September
r!26.6
r!26.5
r!26.9
r!05.8
r!05.3
r!24.2
rl25.2
93.4
r93.1
r92.0
z-102.3
rl01.2
r99.8
r98.7
r99.4
D*iio.2
r-126.5
113.0
113.8
112.3
r 102.1
105.2
124.0
124.0
October
November
December
•128.3
[H>3128.5
D3 106.0
r!25.2
jH>pl26.0
r!26.5
p!26.4
' p92.7
0>rll4.2
P113.9
rlOO.9
pl01.7
98.6
P97.5
May
. ..
1970
May
rll6..0
1971
January
February
March
April
May
rl!9.7
r!22..0
.. .
124.0
105.8
rl24.4
r!24.7
124.2
r 126.0
(NA)
109.5
r- 108.3
p!04.7
(M)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by H>.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an
asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not
available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 34 and 35.
^•Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
2
Data beginning with January 1971 are not strictly comparable with earlier data because of technical changes in the collection
of data for one of the components (series 67). For this reason, no current high is indicated.
3
Excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available.
BCII
DECEMBER 1971
77
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c. First
b. Second
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, pf manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent)
416. Adequacy
435. Index of
9f mfrs.' capac- consumer
ity: percent
sentiment
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(First quarter
(Percent)
1966:100)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
102.8
100.0
101.5
100.3
157.6
159.4
163.0
163.7
92.3
93.9
95.5
96.7
.18
19
22
22
43
38
39
41
95.1
91.6
86.4
79.7
163.4
164.1
166.1
160.3
17.9
103.9
103.6
103.4
101.7
104.6
100.5
23
23
21
20
38
36
33
33
78.1
75.4
77.1
75.4
101.6
100.9
102.0
102.6
101.1
102.6
170.5
175.0
174.1
ra!74.4
100.5
100.5
.100.3
ral01.6
19
r20
19
26
21
20
78.2
81.6
82.4
82.2
a!80.0
a!02.2
72.52
73.94
77.84
77.84
102.7
104.4
78.22
80.22
81.88
78.63
102.3
100.5
79.32
81.61
80.75
ra84.02
99.5
101.5
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
99.0
98.7
99.6
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
a87.14
a88.47
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporting-
430. Household purchases of new cars
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
2-quarter moving average
a. Actual
a. No change b. Higher
in income
income
c. Lower
income
a. jncrease
in income
b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly)
less decrease in income
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)
c. Anticipated
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)
5.5
5.8
6.5
5.5
8.1
8.4
8.1
7.7
7.9
8.3
8.2
7.9
7.8
7.6
7.9
8.3
99
92
96
105
11.3
12.0
13.0
11.6
5.2
6.1
5.6
6.0
7.1
7.1
7.7
6.3
7.4
7.1
7.4
7.0
8.0
7.9
7.5
7.8
108
111
101
111
20.1
19.9
18.2
16.7
13.8
12.9
10.9
7.1
8.5
8.2
6.7
7.8
8.3
7.7
8.0
7.6
7.6
115
103
109
9.4
6.3
7.0
7.3
7.3
17.2
19.9
17.0
15.7
10.5
12.4
10.2
9.0
6.7
7.5
6.8
6.7
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
52.9
53.0
50.8
50.7
36.4
35.9
37.3
37.4
10.0
10.5
10.8
11.1
19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7
13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2
52.7
45.6
46.2
48.3
35.4
41.3
39.9
37.3
11.3
12.4
13.0
13.6
16.5
18.1
18.6
17.6
50.3
49.8
48.5
50.8
35.0
35.1
37.6
34.9
14.2
U.5
12.5
13.7
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
b. Actual
d. Anticipated
as percent of
actual
(Percent)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter,
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
8.4
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40, 41, and 42*
78
DECEMBER 1971
ItCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries
a. Actual b. Second
anticiexpendipations
tures
(1-Q span) (1-Q span)
c. First
anticipations
(1-Q span)
D446. Number of employD444. Net sales, manuees, mfg. and trade1
facturing and trade1
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1
D440. New orders,
manufacturing1
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span) (4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
83.3
66.7
75.0
a.7
94.4
83.3
61.1
55.6
58.3
63.9
66.7
53.3
81
80
76
72
82
85
83
80
70
74
68
66
78
79
77
76
80
34
78
76
86
88
86
83
59
60
58
58
60
60
60
59
77.8
47.2
58.3
19.4
69.4
61.1
25.0
44.4
38.9
55.6
66.7
50.0
66
64
60
55
76
71
74
74
61
56
55
56
70
66
70
66
70
66
64
62
74
73
78
76
54
54
51
50
58
56
56
54
50.0
61.1
44.4
33.3
58.3
47.2
72.2
41.7
58.3
63.9
50.0
68
70
70
76
78
85
81
63
64
66
71
74
80
78
70
72
74
78
80
86
84
48
52
53
55
58
58
56
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
58
83
76
82
75.0
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
DIFFUSION INDEXES--Con.
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Year
and
quarter
Anticipated
Actual
Selling prices
D460
a
U f ltUrmg
D462
and tra d e
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
71
70
70
68
66
68
66
66
84
84
85
85
78
66
61
62
58
62
61
64
58
62
62
62
60
62
65
65
- Manufacturing1
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D464. Wholesale trade1
Anticipated
Actual
D466. Retail trade
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
75
79
78
85
85
86
85
79
80
80
91
90
90
81
82
80
82
82
84
84
84
86
84
82
82
78
78
80
77
80
80
78
75
79
76
78
75
87
85
86
84
77
80
82
80
86
86
85
86
80
80
81
80
80
71
78
78
78
78
74
76
68
76
76
75
75
85
86
73
80
82
82
82
84
73
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
80
1972
61
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
68
68
70
67
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 43 and 44.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
IBCI) DECEMBER
1971
79
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
month
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
(Mil. dol.)
1969
January
February
March
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil. dol.)
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts
(Mil. dol.)
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
512. General imports, total
(1957-59=100)
(Mil. dol.)
+159
-406
+206
2 161
2 266
3 188
83/
1 3Q1
1 118
2/2
260
2 002
222
2 Q&2
April . . .
May ...
June
+136
+11
3 318
3 268
3 17Q
1 110
1 222
1 211
248
258
3 ~l£3
2#o
3 1 6P
July
August
September
+108
3 182
3 366
3 3/1
1 216
1.239
1,317
276
3 07 /
PCT
3 1^3
°66
3 078
October
November
December
+150
+218
1,341
267
p/ y
<44
?/A
3 1 An
+202
3 34^
3 3Q8
3 280
January
February
March
+183
3,4.06
3,54-6
3,375
1,1741,561
1,578
24,0
+267
April
May
June
+148
3/10
3,661
3,727
July
August
September
+450
+245
October .
November
December
f!90
+27
+204
+262
1,312
1,370
2 £>72
3 P6A
3 1Q2
3 07#
1970
+156
+324
+4.62
+130
+71
+168
p//
3 222
•2,<.<*c
3.27Q
261
3,219
1,4.93
1,175
1,3/2
263
266
3 262
3 337
270
3,265
3,704.
3,591
3,553
1,258
1,357
1,674.
276
267
262
3.26Z.
3 3/6
3 423
3,688
3,4-99
3,569
1,384.
1,364.
1,884.
222
2A2
236
3,498
3,428
3,402
1,518
1,4-72
1,4.69
232
217
3,686
3,553
3,569
1971
January
February
March
+136
+24.5
3,735
3,690
3,815
April
May
June
-236
-205
-363
3,522
3 783
3,661
1,4-31
1,242
1,503
246
July
August
September
-304.
260
+265
3.494
1 2Q8
q f^no
1 /60
247
263
October
November
December
+49
cfroi
-&cl
0017
1 *n 1
4,pjj_
p T\ n
q -] /lr\
JJ,JLOU
T»T
67$
p_L,4oo
CWA^
T-.1
) &#
224.
pQSJ
o An
3 768
3 Q8#
4,023
3 ,r7QQ
(77
3,937
4,245
r249
•pro
p^p/c
CTJA'i
Vim;
3,531
p3,387
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 45.
80
DECEMBER 1971
ltd*
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance
on goods and
services
(Mil.dol.)
519. Balance on
current account
and long term
capital
517. Balance
515. Balance
on goods, services, on current
and remittances
account
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
521. Net
liquidity balance
530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners1®
522. Official
reserve transactions balance
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
473
852
848
317
194
576
525
26
-168
154
90
-462
-257
95
-433
-754
-624
-98
-357
-531
-163
1,887
327
-410
32,482
32,514
33,507
33,828
338
296
708
52
-22
386
328
-292
-543
15
-80
-147
-2,019
-1,070
356
-1,234
-3,019
-1,996
163
1,337
1,659
-679
384
34,930
39,043
42,655
41,776
881
1,045
995
670
543
683
636
319
125
292
192
-166
-1,297
-570
-340
-832
-1,254
-868
-675
-1,024
-2,864
-1,404
-2,075
-3,478
42,972
43,380
44,216
43,277
rl,170
r26
rp-6
r828
r-329
P-394
r400
r-812
p-921
r-1,283
r-3,237
p-3,101
r-2,504
r-5,782
p-9,293
r-5,731
rp-12,121
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
45,531
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1®
(Mil.dol.)
534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets 2 ®
(Mil.dol.)
535. Allocations to the
U.S. of
Special
Drawing
Rights
(Mil.dol.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Goods and services
252. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
Merchandise, adjusted3
Income on investment, military
transactions, other serv.. total
253. Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
540. Exports
541. Imports
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
18,407
16,994
17,493
18,574
13,926
14,063
14,634
15,710
11,956
12,686
13,284
12,701
11,483
11,834
12,436
12,384
7,947
8,385
8,878
8,378
7,821
6,134
8,568
8,441
4,009
4,301
4,406
4,323
3,662
3,700
3,868
3,943
16,911
16,006
17,732
17,162
15,758
16,057
16,743
16,964
11,995
14,222
14, 574
14,811
11,657
13,926
13,866
14,142
7,510
9,490
9,602
9,888
7,589
9,566
9,278
9,397
4,485
4,732
4,972
4,923
4,068
4,360
4,588
4,745
19,404
20,451
22,262
24,396
17,350
16,328
15,527
14,487
217
217
217
216
15,374
15,806
15,930
15,795
14,493
14,761
14,935
15,125
10,241
10,582
10,696
10,461
9,728
10,319
5,133
5,224
5,234
5,334
4,765
4,930
4,943
4,806
r28,960
U,342
13,504
p!2,131
180
179
179
179
16,.547
rl6,636
P17,054
r!5,377
rl6,6lO
p!7,060
11,030
rlO,720
pll,48l
10,761
rll,760
p!2,0!8
5,517
5,916
P5,573
r4,6l6
r4,850
p5,042
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
9,831
9,992
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
34,584
p45,890
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
a
e", estimates; "a",'anticipated; and "NA", not available; SDR indicates Special Drawing Rights.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46, 47, and 48.
1
2
3
Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
Reserve position at end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes
transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
4
.Data for first quarter 1970 to date are not comparable with earlier data.
IBCI) DECEMBER 1971
81
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Income on Investment, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Year
and
quarter
Military transactions
Travel
Income on Investments
542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
investments in
ments abroad
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Transportation and other services
546. Sales under 547. Military
545. Payments
544. Receipts
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conabroad©
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
548. Receipts
from
549. Payments
for
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
2,126
2,373
2,398
2,339
696
744
775
800
433
431
451
460
755
737
787
743
302
344
393
357
1,103
1,112
1,147
1,173
1,148
1,153
1,164
1,167
1,108
1,107
1,159
1,227
2,471
2,585
2,716
2,767
929
1,078
1,242
1,315
498
518
519
523
820
849
864
857
407
329
442
336
1,198
1,187
1,221
1,251
1,109
1,300
1,295
1,297
1,121
1,246
1,261
1,322
2,925
2,791
2,855
•2,839
1,348
1,222
1,284
.1,213
556
573
589
601
925
1,010
1,021
997
274
44-7
327
433
1,382
1,255
1,211
1,203
1,378
1,413
1*463
1,461
1,310
1,343
1,427
1,393
2,897
r3,241
P2,898
rl,072
pl,228
596
r586
P618
967
r1,086
pi,095
507
r545
P466
1,174
rl,214
pi,181
1,517
rl,544
pl,591
1,361
rl,478
pl,538
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS--Con.
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Year
and
quarter
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil.dol.)
564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
of U.S. securities
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1968
251
5
23
41
456
843
1,033
876
839
1,122
1,115
1,312
347
105
259
515
-938
-354
-728
-449
341
402
-34
422
246
164
152
270
926
999
899
430
1,388
365
396
963
365
499
506
125
-841
-1,344
-1,304
-652
-29
-426
21
-126
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1971
486
105
218
160
1,358
1,257
897
934
304
374
720
210
-93
488
337
-1,237
-364
-890
-1,203
-198
-122
-138
120
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
92
r-16
p-319
1,370
rl,393
pl,399
559
r!96
P564
353
r388
P224
-1,240
r-1,262
p-1,206
r-832
r-658
p-2,130
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
82
DECEMBER 1971
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
[3 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month
Defense Indicators
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
+9.1
195*. 6
186*. 5
78*3
,. • •
+11.7
199*. 3
187*. 6
602. Federal
264. National
expenditures, defense purnational income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
61B. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
(Mil.dol.)
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Mil. dol.)
648. New or647. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil.dol.)
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
7,578
7,050
6,543
2,088
2,075
1,701
4-05
3.77
3.59
1.93
2.17
2.17
3,398
3,441
2,904
77! 5
6,520
6,319
6,144
1,638
1,528
1,550
3.73
3.62
2.91
1.95
1.83
1.39
2,825
3,070
2,744-
July
August
September
+5*.i
195 '.8
190*.7
7<M
6,906
6,472
6,394
1,447
1,476
1,752
4.03
3.07
3.41
2.45
1.61
1.44
2,896
3,001
2,680
October
November
December
+3*.4
196 '.8
193 '.4
78*4
7,041
7,091
7,088
1,867
1,820
2,103
3.51
3.88
3.56
1.89
2.35
1.93
2,987
2?734
2,765
-4*. 5
191 ".6
196.1
78.9
7,045
6,516
6,519
1,807
1,523
1,669
3.45
3.59
3.53
1.90
1.74
1.58
2,855
2,623
2,904
April
May
June
-14*1
193 '.8
207 '.9
75.'l
6,643
6,118
6,505
1,559
1,486
1,771
3.37
3.60
3.42
1.38
1.89
1.85
2,591
2,545
2,896
July
August
September
-15 *4
19l'.3
206 .*7
74*2
7,111
6,035
•6,407
1,825
1,332
1,542
4?18
3.67
3.19
3.07
1.85
2.00
2,717
2,782
2,113
October
November
December
-20*. 5
189 ".3
209^8
73*2
6,251
7,166
7,195
1,459
2,041
2,105
3.12
3.81
3.97
2.12
2.02
2.05
3,464
2,746
3,181
January
February
March
-17 Ls
195^6
213*2
73.0
7,055
6,928
6,793
2,239
2,171
1,470
3.85
3.25
3-28
2.17
2.36
1.58
2,508
2,619
3,398
April
May
June
-22.6
198.3
220*9
71*. 8
6,991
6,257
rp6,010
1,686
1,329
1,252
3.50
3.23
3.63
1.50
1.57
1.68
2,751
2,112
2,367
July
August
September
-21.2
...
202.6
223.9
70.8
7,960
6,759
5,503
2,586
1,572
1,085
4.25
3.63
3.02
2.90
2.15
1.47
3,082
3,219
2,647
(M)
(M)
r3.25
P3.91
rl.95
p2.00
2,422
(M)
1970
January .
...
February
March
1971
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 51 and 52.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ DECEMBER
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1971
83
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q PRICE MOVEMENTS
Consumer price indexes
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month
783. Commodities less foods
781. All items® 782. Food
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
784. Services® 750. All commod- 58. Manufacities ©
tured goods®
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
751. Processed
foods and
feeds
752. Farm products
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
1969
January
February
March
106.7
107.1
108.0
105.9
105.9
106.5
105.6
106.2
107.1
108.8
109.4
110.3
104.3
104.8
105.4
104.3
104-9
105.2
103.6
103.9
104.8
105.4
105.0
106.3
April . .
108.7
109.0
109.7
107.1
107.7
108.8
107.3
107.6
108.0
111.2
111.7
112.2
105.5
106.3
106.8
105.4
105-8
106.3
105.9
107.4
108.1
106.7
110.0
110.4
110.2
110.7
111.2
109.3
109.8
110.5
108.3
108.5
108.8
112.8
113.5
m. 3
107.0
106.9
107.1
106.5
106.5
106.8
108,1
108.3
108.2
109.3
109.9
109.3
111.6
112.2
112.9
110.4
111.9
113.0
109.3
109.6
110.0
114.7
115.3
116.1
107.4
108.1
108.6
107.4
107.8
108.1
109.3
109.8
110.6
110.3
113.0
113.5
January
February
March
113.3
113.9
1U. 5
113.5
in-3
in. 4
110.3
110.5
110.7
117.1
118.0
119.3
109.3
109.7
109.9
108.8
109.1
109.3
111.7
112.0
112.4
112.9
113.5
113-6
April
m. 9
June
115.2
115.7
116.3
115,1
115.0
111.4
112.0
112.4
120.1
120.7
121.4
109.9
110.1
110.3
109.6
109.7
110.0
112.6
111.5
110.9
112.2
109.8
110.0
July
August
September
116.7
116.9
117.5
115.1
115.1
115.5
112.6
112.9
113.5
122.0
122.7
123.5
110.9
110.5
111.0
110.6
110 6
110.8
111. 8
112.3
112.4
111.0
109.5
112.6
October
November
December
118.1
118.5
119.1
115.5
115.6
115.5
m.Q
in. 5
115.3
124.1
124.9
125.6
111.0
110.9
111.0
111.2
111.2
111.2
112.2
112.5
111.6
110.2
108.5
108.2
January
February
March
119.2
119.4
119.8
115.5
116.1
117.2
115.5
115.4
115.6
126.3
126.6
126.6
111.8
112.8
113.0
111.8
112.4
112.7
111.5
113.2
109.0
113.4
112.0
April
120.2
120.8
121.5
118.2
118.4
119.0
115.8
116.6
117.0
126.8
127.5
128.2
113.3
113.8
113.0
113.5
113.8
115.0
113.6
112.4
121.8
119.1
119.2
118.9
117.1
rl!7.5
rl!7.5
128.8
129.4
r!29.8
114.9
114.5
118.9
119.7
rl!7.5
117.5
r!30.0
130.4
114.4
114.5
May
June
July
August
September
....
October
November
December
1970
May
1971
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
r 122.1
rl22.2
P122.4
122.6
in.3
m.6
m. 3
m.3
m.3
114.9
m.i
in. 5
114.8
m.o
111.0
114.2
110.9
114.5
114.5
114.6
115.2
113.8
113.8
in. 5
in. 7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these se .es are shown on pages 53 and 54.
84
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
HI
Year
and
quarter
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level1
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1968
712.3
716.5
689.6
696.4
703.3
710.2
-3.0
-8.9
-9.0
-6.3
721.4
724.2
727.8
725.2
717.2
724.3
731.4
738.6
+0.1
+3.6
+13.4
719.8
721.1
723.3
715.9
746.4
754.3
762.3
770.4
+26.6
+33.2
+39.0
+54.5
729.7
738.4
745.5
778.5
786.7
795.1
+48.8
+48.3
+49.6
First Quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
692.6
705.3
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter ...
-4.2
1970
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p w , preliminary
a w
e , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 55.
^•Based on a trend line of 3.5 percent_per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th
quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to the 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and
4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 3rd quarter 1971.
KCII
DECEMBER 1971
85
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q3 ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
(Percent)
851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, marv
ufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers1
durable goods
industries
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
853. Ratio, 854. Ratio, 860. Ratio,
production of personal sav- help-wanted
ing to dispos- advertising
business
equipment to able personal to persons
unemployed
income
consumer
goods
(1967 = 100)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
n on farm
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
(1967=100)
(1967 dol.)
859. Real
spendable
avg. wkly.
earnings,
nonagri.
prod, or
nonsupv.
workers
857. Vacancy rate in
total rental
housing ®
(1967 dol.)
(Percent)
Revised1
1969
1.56
1.56
1.56
3.26
3.23
3.23
96.6
95.7
95.9
0.053
1.326
1.384
1.361
103ii
2.91
r2.91
2.90
91.13
90.71
90.86
5.'6
...
1.56
1.56
1.56
3.26
3.30
3.23
98.0
96.4
97.4
0.053
1.336
1.346
1.310
102!8
2.90
2.90
2.90
91.17
91.18
90.86
...
5.1
...
86*. 9
1.57
1.56
1.56
3.26
3.24
3.21
97.8
96.9
98.2
0.066
1.275
1.251
1.2U
102 '.7
2.90
2.92
r2.90
90.73
90.88
91.26
5^0
84*.*3
1.56
1.58
1.59
3.14
3.18
3.20
98.0
96.6
97.0
0.066
1.194
1.226
1.183
102!4
2.91
2.91
2.91
90.93
90.72
90.61
4^7
...
January
February
March
80.6
1.59
1.58
1.59
3.17
3.14
3.14
95.5
94-4
95.5
0.069
1.006
0.949
0.844
102.1
2.89
2.88
2.89
90.45
90.37
90.38
5.'6
...
April .
May
June
79*.6
1.61
1.58
1.58
3.U
3.03
3.00
93.5
92.4
91.9
0.079
0.760
0.733
0.699
103 .'i
2.88
2.89
2.89
90.10
89.62
89.99
516
July
August
September
78.' 6
1.59
1.59
1.60
2.97
2.97
2.89
91.4
91.1
91.3
0.082
0.654
0.621
0.563
104!6
2.90
2.91
2.91
90*36
90,71
89.56
4^9
October
November
December
74.0
1.63
1.66
1.62
2.93
2.97
2.97
88.0
87.8
86.3
0.083
rO.497
0.483
0.462
104*.!
2.85
2.86
2.91
89.36
89.62
89.81
4*.8
January
February
March
P74*5
1.60
1.57
1,56
2.98
2.97
2.87
83.5
85.0
84.3
0.081
0.443
0.473
0.464
105.8
r2.92
r2.94
2.94
r91.19
r91.52
1-91.99
4^9
April
May
June
p7*5*.l
1.56
1.55
1.54
2.83
2.72
2.58
83.0
81.6
0.082
0.456
0.450
0.527
107.0
2.95
2.94
2.94
r92.42
r92.07
r92.34
4^9
rp73*.6
1.55
1.55
1.55
2.74
2.74
2.71
0.077
0,517
0.494
0.469
r!07.9
r2.94
2.94
r2.95
r92.08
r92.54
r92.17
5^3
pl.56
(m)
2.70
r83.7
(M>
P83.8
r2.94
p2.94
r92.97
P92.91
January
February
March
87.7
April
May
June
87*1
• ••
July
August
September
October
November
December
1970
1971
July
August
September
October
November
December
31.8
83.0
r83.4
rS4.5
0.482
pO.462
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p"» preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 56 and 57.
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
86
DECEMBER 1971
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (21
industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
The Conference Board
(17 industries)1
1-quarter
span
3-quarter
span
D34. Profits,
mfg.,
D19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
FNCB
(about 1,000 stocks (75 industries)©2
corporations)
1-quarter
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices (13
industrial materials)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1969
January
February
March
47.6
31.0
97.6
38.1
23.8
23.8
54.3
62.9
62.9
74.3
62.9
65.7
59
65
52
12.0
43.3
13.3
73.3
40.0
14.7
53.8
61.5
46.2
84.6
80.8
76.9
April . . .
May ....
June
35.7
48.6
48.6
40.0
57.1
65.7
54.3
56
59
55
54.0
74.7
12.0
50.0
35.7
38.1
28.6
69.2
76.9
92.3
July
August
September
21.4
54.8
52.4
66.7
16.7
11.9
57.1
35.7
62.9
47.1
42.9
45.7
35
October
November
December
19.0
52.4
78.6
16.7
11.9
11.9
54.3
38.6
50.0
38.6
42.9
30.0
41
1970
January... .
February
March
23.8
28.6
31.0
51.4
42.9
37.1
47
29
51
26.2
47.1
48.6
50.0
43.3
23.3
82.7
Apri 1
May
June
23.8
26.2
11.9
14.3
54.3
62.9
54.3
42.9
45.7
34.3
53
32
47
16.4
July
August
September
69.0
19.0
48.6
65.7
65.7
35
24
42.9
45.7
44.3
45.7
October
November
December
73.8
71.4
71.4
42.9
59.5
45.2
25.7
65.7
60.0
60.0
65.7
51.4
47
January
February
March
61.9
45.2
76.2
83.3
83.3
85.7
60.0
45.7
60.0
71.4
74.3
82.9
April
May
June
42.9
71.4
54.8
78.6
r57.1
44.3
70.0
54.3
80.0
68.6
July
August
September
64.3
38.1
4-7.6
52.4
9.5
9.5
9.5
7.1
9.5
19.0
1.3
21.3
65.4
57.7
76.9
4.0
25.3
21.3
20.0
61.5
76.9
57.7
76.9
76.9
69.2
14.7
25.3
31.5
46.2
50.0
50.0
69.2
69.2
76.9
5.5
5.6
5.6
50.0
30.8
57.7
61.5
42.3
38.5
6.9
47.9
25.0
27.8
61.5
53.8
19.2
34.6
34.6
38.5
52
41.7
77.8
96.5
31.9
46.5
72.2
46.2
42.3
46.2
19.2
15.4
15.4
35
40
72.2
48.6
98.6
95.8
97.2
98.6
30.8
42.3
19.2
15.4
30.8
46.2
59
29
60
95.8
87.5
71.5
98.6
95.1
91.0
46.2
61.5
80.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
35
P68
61
84.0
41.7
27.8
97.2
77.8
56.9
80.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
69.2
69.2
58
44.4
23.6
71.5
31.9
57.7
61.5
53.8
47
49
34.7
61.3
41
50
72.7
68.0
4.0
2.7
6.7
1971
October
November
December
59.5
p76.2
rll.9
50.0
58.6
34.3
r76.2
p78.6
r51.4
P54.3
r51.4
P68.6
p76
18.1
2.8
3
53.8
53.8
46.2
34.6
3
57.7
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed
on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the
index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The M r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
2
Based on 75 components through March 1970, on 73 components through May 1970, and on 72 components thereafter. Component
data are not shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency.
3
Average for December 7 and 14.
BCII
DECEMBER 1971
87
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
Roughly Coincident Indicators
D5. Initial claims for
D41. Number of employees
unemployment insurance,
on nonagricultural payrolls
State programs, week in(30 industries)
cluding the 12th (47 areas)1
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)
1-month
span
6-month
span
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)©
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
1969
January
February
March
72.3
38.3
55.3
70.2
46.8
40.4
80.0
68.3
70.0
83.3
78.3
71.7
70.8
66.7
79.2
70.8
70.8
79.2
68.2
75.0
75.0
81.8
79.5
84.1
69.6
60.9
21.7
73.9
82.6
71.7
April .
May
June
48.9
57.4
23.4
58.5
34.0
25.5
53.3
55.0
71.7
71.7
70.0
60.0
29.2
62.5
66.7
70.8
75.0
58.3
84.1
79.5
84.1
90.9
90.9
88.6
73.9
41.3
54.3
67.4
65.2
56.5
51.1
59.6
38.3
28.7
24.5
8.5
48.3
56.7
48.3
51.7
55.0
48.3
58.3
41.7
47.9
66.7
60.4
45.8
77.3
68.2
77.3
86.4
86.4
81.8
45.7
50.0
30.4
50.0
52.2
56.5
45.7
31.9
57.4
6.4
12.8
12.8
56.7
45.0
53.3
48.3
41.7
41.7
60.4
47.9
41.7
29.2
33.3
16.7
68.2
84.1
72.7
81.8
81.8
72.7
63.0
34.8
60.9
73.9
65.2
87.0
January
February
March
31.9
25.5
44.7
4.3
2.1
11.7
40.0
41.7
36.7
33.3
31.7
28.3
12.5
66.7
31.2
33.3
29.2
27.1
86.4
77.3
72.7
79.5
77.3
75.0
60.9
58.7
50.0
78.3
82.6
82.6
April
May
June
25.5
63.8
42.6
6.4
12.8
2.1
26.7
20.0
26.7
25.0
18.3
16.7
60.4
31.2
31.2
54.2
41.7
50.0
68.2
68.2
56.8
77.3
84.1
86.4
82.6
54.3
39.1
91.3
82.6
82.6
July
August
September
59.6
42.6
31.9
12.8
25.5
55.3
33.3
25.0
55.0
16.7
20.0
20.0
64.6
33.3
33.3
33.3
33.3
37.5
61.4
70.5
77.3
75.0
81.8
77.3
56.5
65.2
50.0
78.3
69.6
67.4
October
November
December
53.2
57.4
70.2
55.3
51.1
46.8
31.7
38.3
58.3
25.0
31.7
33.3
33.3
25.0
54.2
37.5
39.6
41.7
75.0
61.4
56.8
72.7
81.8
81.8
67.4
54.3
47.8
56.5
78.3
91.3
38.3
61.7
42.6
46.8
61.7
72.3
51.7
41.7
40.0
48.3
65.0
46.7
50.0
50.0
29.2
66.7
70.8
70.8
79.5
75.0
72.7
77.3
81.8
81.8
43.5
65.2
73.9
80.4
87.0
(NA^
48.9
44.7
40.4
57.4
21.3
48.9
76.7
80.0
33.3
33.3
46.7
65.0
79.2
56.2
47.9
54.2
r54.2
r62.5
68.2
72.7
72.7
90.9
95.5
86.4
73.9
52.2
73.9
57.4
25.5
46.8
42.6
41.7
55.0
r91.7
r58.3
P53.3
37.5
r47.9
r70.8
r54.2
P45.8
86.4
90.9
38.6
86.4
72.7
(NA)
87.0
^9.1
July
August
September
. .
. .
October
November
December
1970
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June *
July
August
September
....
...
. ..
October
November
December
57.4
66.0
r53..3
p63.3
r62.5
p75.0
25.0
45.5
2
54.3
(NA)
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed in the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except
in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
•"•Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
These data are not comparable with earlier data due to a revised sample.
DECEMBER 1971
!!€!»
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1971
Diffusion index components
April
May
June
July
September
August
November p
October1"
01. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
o
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
+
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
+
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
r39.5 +
39.8 +
40.1
(76)
(79)
r41.7 o
40.1 +
39.4 +
41.7
40.6 +
39.6 +
41-5
40.7
39.9
41.8
38.8 +
41-4 +
r39.5 +
41.8 +
40.1
42.1
39.8
39.8 +
40.0 o
40.0 o
40.0
39.8
(43)
(71)
(55)
(64)
(38)
41. 5 o
40.1
39.5 +
41.5 +
39.8 +
39.9 o
41.6 +
40.4 +
39.9 +
41.9 o
40.5
40.1
41.9 40.2
39.9
41.8
40.6
o
-
(12)
41.1
+
4.1.0 o
41.4 +
41.0 o
42.0
41*0
40.1 +
40.0 +
40.7
40.5 +
40.6 +
40.7 o
40.7
40.7 +
40.2 40.8 -
r39.3 -tr40.5 +
40.2 +
40.7 +
40.5
41.2
Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
+
39.8 +
40.6 +
39.9 o
41.1 +
39.9 +
41.4
40.1
39.5 +
40.0
39.9 -
39.6 4r38.5 +
40.0 +
40.5 +
40.1
41-0 '
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
o
39.7 +
38.6 +
40.0
38.9
39.7
38.7
+
+
39.8 o
39.2 o
39.8
39.2 -
39.7 +
r38.7 +
39.8 +
38.9 +
40.4
39.2
o
40.5 o
37.5 +
40.5
38.3
40.4
36.2
+
+
40.5 o
39.6
40.5
37.1
r40.5
r36.6
39.9
35.5
o
49.9
35.2
+
40.4 +
35.1 +
40.8 o
35.5
40.8
35.4 +
40.3 +
35.8
40.7 35.7
r40.4 +
35.4 +
40.8 +
36.0 +
41.0
36.3
+
o
42.3
37.5 +
42.1 +
37.7 o
42.3 +
37.7 -
42.4 o
37.6
42.4
37.5
41.9 +
37.4 o
42.0 +
37.4 +
42.3
37.8
+
41.7
41.7 o
41.5 +
41.7 +
41.7
42.3 +
41.4 +
42.6 +
41.5 +
43.4 -
o
+
40.3 +
38.3
40.4 +
37.8
40.7
+
37.5
40.3
37.7
40.1
37.6
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Appa rel and other textile products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products
„
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
- 30,228 + 30,601 + 30,666 + 31,955 (44)
(70)
(54)
(50)
o
-
-
r42.1
r42.9
41.4
42.2
+
41.6
41.8
r40.0 +
r37.3 +
40.3 +
37.8 +
40.4
38.1
2
31,758 (59)
31,026 + 31,126 + 32,248
(34)
(51)
(54)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
-
4,882 3,419 +
4,800 3,532 -
4,536 3,462 +
4,434 3,489 +
4,184 +
3,577 -
4,517 3,520 -
4,488 +
3,353 +
4,804
3,604
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
+
4,599 +
4,310 +
4,809 +
4,409 -
5,122 4,333 +
4,823 +
4,827 -
5,072 +
4,584 +
5,105 +
4,628 +
5,292 4,737 -
5,017
4,713
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
+
7,032 5,986 +
6,958 +
6,093 +
7,065 +
6,148 +
8,062 +
6,320 +
7,923 6,418 -
7,130 6,126 +
6,970 +
6,286 +
7,450
6,660
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
DECEMBER 1971
89
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971
May
April
August
July
June
September
October
November
+ 107.5
- 107.4
- 106.9
December1
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1967 -100)
+
110.2- 108.6
- 106.1
- 104.7
+ 106.1
- 106.3
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 73 componenfs
(SI)
(38)
Cotton (b.)r 12-market average
Print doth (yd ) average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides ffb.)
Rosin (100 Ib.).........
Rubber (Ib.)
.
Tallow (Ib.)
+
.265
+ .267
+ .278 - .266
+ 1.091 - 1.021
+ .167 o .167
+ 18.000 + 18.036
+ .196 - .195
.075
.074
(62)
(58)
(46)
+
.478
- .451
Cooper scrap, (Ib )
o
.0^8 +
.049 +
Lead scrap (Ib )
».
o 35.389
Steel scraf) (ton)
...... - 35.380
1.684 - 1.683 +
Ti ! n(lb) ................... +
.158+
+ .155 +
Zinc(lb)
Burlap (yd )
......... + .182 - .178 +
,t\t\*
+ .464 + .472
.050 + .054 + .056
32.081 - 29.787 + 31.163
1.687 + 1.701 + 1.704
.161 +
.163+ .170
.190+ .193 - .187
+ .269
+ .273
- .979
- .163
- 17.968
- .169
- .073
+ .272
o .273
- .909
+ .169
- 17.839
- .162
.071
+ .284
- .266
- .903
- .166
+ 17.966
+ .180
.070
(46)
(54)
(58)
(35)
"
451
o .056
+ 32.673
- 1.688
o .170
+ .192
- .436 - .404
- .055 0 .055
+ 35.522
- 30.738
- 1.681 + 1.691
o .170 - .169
o
.192- .187
- .393
- .054
- 29.204
+ 1.695
+ .170
+ .206
+ .291
- .265
+ .905
+.173
- 17.893
+ .294 +
+ .266 - .903 +
+ .174 +
- 17.745
+
.179- .069
.302
.264
.904
.185
17.662
.171
.067
+ .315
- .263
+ .921
o .185
+ 17.679
+
.175
- .059
+ r 70, 853 o r70,831 +
70,915
.178
+ .071
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls . . .+
Percent rising of 30 components
70,599
(77)
+ 70,769
- 70,657
(80)
Ordnance and accessories
97
488
Lumber and wood products ....... +
+
372
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products. . . +
.
498
+ 1,008
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
+ 1,014
Machinery except electrical
- 1,163
Electrical equipment
I- 1,177
Transportation equipment
o 1,225
Instruments and related products. . .o
253
Miscellaneous manufacturing
1317
+
98
+
491
+
375
+
502
+ 1,012
+ 1,020
- 1,159
+ 1,184
+ 1,253
+
255
+
318
Food and kindred products
- 1,181
Tobacco manufactures
166
1840
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products. . + 1,202
Paper and allied products
+
527
666
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
*
584
o
116
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c. . *•
443
Leather and leather products
f
265
Mining
+
623
+ 3,282
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities. . 4,505
+ 3,854
Retail trade
+ 11,253
Finance, insurance, real estate
+ 3,769
Services
o 11,843
Federal government
+ 2,667
State and local government
+ 10,164
- 70,531
(33)
o 70,529
(55)
U2)
(92)
95
495
378
499
996
- 1,013
- 1,152
- 1,179
- 1,246
+
256
o
318
93
500
380
496
965
+ 1,016
+ 1,156
- 1,169
- 1,244
+
257
o
318
+
+
94
503
375
+
497
901
o 1,016
+ 1,159
- 1,167
+ 1,248
256
o
318
o
r94
+
r509
+
383
+
502
+
r926
+ rl,026
+ rl,175
+ rl,!85
+ rl,251
+
r260
+ r319
+ 1,184
65
+
845
+ 1,204
519
+
667
+
588
o
116
+
448
+
266
- 1,178
64
838
- 1,188
+
520
o
667
585
115
+
44-9
265
+ 1,188
56
+
841
- 1,179
515
661
582
o
115
+
450
259
- 1,179
o
56
o
841
+ 1,180
+
520
658
577
o
115
447
+
264
+ rl,185
+
58
+
842
+ rl,189
+
r533
+
r66l
+
582
+
116
+
458
261
622
- 3,275
+ 4,518
+ 3,866
+ 11,282
+ 3,788
+ 11,858
o 2,667
+ 10,191
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
-
+
609
- 3,219
- 4,428
+ 3,844
+ 11,379
- 3,804
+ 11,946
+ 2,650
+ 10,193
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
619
3,255
4,500
3,837
11,298
3,807
11,895
2,640
10,198
+
+
597
3,228
4,476
3,835
11,323
3,806
11,921
2,643
10,169
r6l6
r3,250
r4,460
r3,865
r 11, 408
r3,821
rll,962
2,674
10,181
+
+
+
+
+
+
(53)
(63)
r93
r514
r385
505
r930
r 1,021
rl,171
rl,190
rl,214
r266
r3l6
91
+
517
+
390
+
511
+
931
- 1,014
+
1,181
+ 1,192
+ 1,219
260
+
317
rl,154 + 1,172
56 +
57
r845 +
849
rl,193 + 1,201
r531 o
531
658
+
r664
580 o
580
o
116 o
116
+
r460 o
460
r260
259
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
r519
r3,289
r4,442
r3,876
11,388
r3,833
r!2,008
r2,675
rlO.249
515
+ 3,301
+ 4,445
3,866
- 11,345
+ 3,854
+ 12,049
2,672
+ 10r 277
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available,
p = preliminary,
r = revised.
•'•Average for December 7 and 14.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
90
DECEMBER 1971
IICII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971
Diffusion index components
April
June
May
047. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1967=100)
+ 106.2 + 107.0
All industrial production
2
(79)
Percent rising of 24 components
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
+
(56)
+
107.2
August1"
July
-
(48)
106,1 (38)
108 "i
108.5 +
9C)!9
91.4
97.4 + 100.2
+ 90.9
89.5
+ 106.7 + 108.0
+
+
94-9
+ 100.2
88.5
+
108.5 + 110.9 -
Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
+ 113 '.3 +
+ 112.5 -
113.7
110.0
-
niii -
+
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures
+
+
98!7
119.3 +
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
+
+
+
+
+
November P
105.3
106.2
o 106.2
+ 107.0
+
(48)
o
+
+
October r
2
losiv + 114*3
+ 108.5 o 108.5
Machinery and allied goods
Noneletrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Septemberr
98*2
110.8 -
91.6
99.2
91.7
(71)
(62)
(75)
+
92*3
- 105.7
+ 963
+ 106.3
+
+ 94.5
+ 97.8
+
91.7
109.1 + 110.5
+ 95^6
+ 98.7
+ 92.2
o 110.5
93^9
+ 100.0
+ 92.5
+ 112.8
+ 112.5
(M)
(M)
81*6
108.0
94.1
97.3
91.1
9s!6
+ 107.2
111.0 +
108*. 7 -I115.4 -
108.8 +
113.1 +
109^4
113.9
+ p!09.5
+ P114.3
+ 100.9
- 120.7 +
99!9
126.1 -
+ 101.0
122.0 + 122.9
+ 112,6
(MO
- P122.4
-
97.6
121.2
106.*3 +
97.3 +
89.9
lO1?! 5
99.7
89.8
+
+ 103.0
- pllO.O
(M)
- p86.2
+ 103.3
(M)
(MO
(NA)
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
+ 1U*4 +
+ 101.8 -
115!l
101.4
-
+ pl!2.4
+ 104.6
+ 109.4
(M)
+ 106.1
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
+ 123 !i + 123.7
- 115.8 112.7
+ 124.5 + 135.4
129^5
113.7
129.1
- 127*.2
+ pl!4.0
- p!24.6
+ 125.8
+ 127.6
(MO
(M)
112.0
114.0
98.2 + plOO.3
o 111.1
o 112.0
(M)
+ 112.2
+ 113.2
(M)
H5.5 - 110.2
+ 114.3 - 109.6
- 109.4 o 109.4 o 109.4 + 109.7
+ 110.0 - 109.2 - 108.8 - 107.7
- 28.5
- 106.2
- 124.7 94.2
+
+ 104.8 + 109.7
90.0
+ 91.4
+ pl!7.9
+ p91.2
+ 59.1
- 105.1
+ 109.3
(NO
„
p00(js
+
+
Tobacco products
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
„
114.1 + 114-. 6
96.9 + 100.3
122*.6
92.4
113.2 - 108.5 +
97.0
97.1
86.7
89.3
110.5
96.0
84.1
+ 111.0
+ plOO.3
+ 87.6
115 ".5 +
101.0 +
117.8
101.7
- 110.2
+ 102.9
113.4 +
101.0 o
125!6 +
+
126>!8 + 115.0 - 114.8 +
129.1 - 128.0 +
Foods and tobacco
+
99!6
115^4 - 115.2 92.1 + 96.6 +
117*.3
96.4
93!5
90.2
12?!6 +
115.8 129.9 -
112.2
(M)
(NA)
duo
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
2
ItCII
DECEMBER 1971
91
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971
Diffusion index components
May
April
July
June
August
October
September
November
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 12
(Mil lions of dollars)
+ 33,578
AH retail sales.
- 33,502
(52)
(74)
+ 6,620
Grocery stores
+ 2,349
Eating and drinking places
+ 3,582
Department stores
338
Mailorder houses (department store merchandise). . .
+
602
388
677
270
Furniture home furnishings stores 0
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
+
+
+
868
475
1,024
276
Passenger car and other automotive dealers .......
Tire battery accessory dealers.
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
+ 5,836
+
511
+ 2,270
+ 1,120
702
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores
+
+ 33,827
+ 6,656
+ 2,411
- 3,562
303
+
+
+
+
+
- 33,688
+ 34,655 + r35,2l9 -P34,846
(NA)
(74)
- 6,642
+ 2,427
+ 3,743
+
368
6,878
2,567
3,472
354
+
+
+
+
641
392
710
266
+
+
-
632
403
737
263
571
389
694
285
+
+
854
472
1,055
292
+
+
+
+
867
505
1,111
320
926
480
1,135
303
+
+
+
+
+ 5,762
+
505
+ 2,308
- 1,097
+
739
5,910
521
2,433
1,126
734
+
-
5,640
491
+ 2,277
- 1,104
+
710
(39)
(87)
+
+
+
+
+
(N/0
(NA)
(54)
- P6,886
+ p2,644
- p3,547
+ P375
(NA)
(N/0
(MO
(N/0
+
+
+
p575
P389
p655
p288
(N/0
(N/0
(N/0
(N/0
+ p952
+ p523
+ pi, 196
+
P316
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
6,284 + r6,809 - p6,491
r556 - P530
546 +
2,511 + r2,523 - P2,470
1,169 - rl,138 - pl,132
r754 0 P754
741 +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
6,950 +
2,614 3,511 +
384
r6,993
r2,573
r3,6l8
r370
r571
r385
r666
r284
577
409
686
294
936
509
1,186 307 +
r903
r477
rl,179
r309
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES *
(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
117.3
109.5
114.7
112.8
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
134.6
110.2
124.2
125.3
117.1
119.6
119.8
120.3
118.0
109.9
114.9
113.0
o
o
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
115.4
112.5
92.7
103.1
113.6
-
+
+
116.0
111.9
92.6
101.9
113.3
+
o
+
o
110.5
104.4
107.2
109.7
114.2
+
+
+
+
110.6
104.3
107.3
109.8
114.4
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
o
+
+
126.1
109.8
122.2
120.3
116.4
117.9
118.7
119.3
117.2
109.4
114.4
112.6
+
+
+
+
130.6
110.0
123.3
121.9
+
+
+
+
116.9
118.2
119.3
119.8
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
114.5
109.6
93.5
99.7
112.2
109.9
104.3
107.4
108.7
114.4
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
o
-
114.9
110.9
93.4
101.4
112.3
110.2
104.4
107.4
108.7
114.2
+
+
+
113.5
108.9
109.6
104.5
105.3
109.0
114.0
114.9 (91)
124.9
109.9
121.8
120.1
117.2
117.3
118.2
118.7
117.2
109.4
114.2
112.5
124.6
109.7
121.6
118.4
117.2
116.8
118.0
118.3
117.0
109.5
114.1
112.7
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
;o 112.2
£*
+ in. 5
+
+
Percent rising of 22 components
113.8
113.5
(73)
113.0
(68)
+
(86)
(73)
o
+
o
o
o
+
114-7 (39)
114.5
(25)
0
114.5
(46)
134.3
110.2
124.2
125.6
116.5
120.3
119.9
120.2
117.8
109.7
113.8
113.0
o
o
o
o
+
o
131.8
110.2
124.1
125.5
116.3
120.3
119.7
120.2
117.8
109.6
115.2
113.0
o
o
o
o
131.3
110.2
124.0
125.3
116.0
120.3
119.7
120.2
117.8
109.3
115.3
113.1
114.6
112.2
92.5
103.1
113.8
110.6
104.3
107.3
109.7
114.7
- 114.1
o 112.2
92.4
- 102.5
o 113.8
o 110.6
- 104.2
- 106.3
- 109.5
o 114.7
+
+
+
o
o
+
+
o
o
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
Data on total retail sales are based on a new sample. Component data shown are based on the new sample beginning
with July and on the old sample for earlier months.
3
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
4
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
92
DECEMBER 1971
114.4
112.5
92.3
103.2
113.8
110.6
103.8
106.2
109.5
115.1
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q| CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month
781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices©
133. Canada,
index of
consumer
prices®
132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices©
135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®
Qj INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
136. France,
index of
consumer
prices©
138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices®
137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices®
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
(1967-100) (1967-100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100)
1969
January
February
March
107
107
108
106
106
107
108
109
109
104
104
105
108
109
109
108
108
109
102
102
103
April . . .
May
June
109
109
110
108
108
109
110
110
111
105
105
105
110
110
111
110
103
103
104
no
111
July
August
September
110
111
111
110
110
110
110
110
111
105
105
105
111
111
112
n3
113
114
104
105
105
111
n2
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
112
112
113
110
110
111
112
112
113
105
106
107
113
113
113
114
114
114
105
106
106
112
110
110
113
115
113
114
114
111
112
112
in
114
115
107
108
108
114
115
115
116
117
118
107
107
108
107
108
108
115
116
1U
April
May
June
115
116
116
112
112
113
117
117
117
108
109
109
116
117
117
119
118
117
108
109
109
108
108
108
n5
114
n5
n2
n2
108
no
July
August
September
117
117
118
113
113
113
118
118
119
109
109
109
118
118
118
ns
ns
122
109
109
110
108
108
107
114
114
113
109
109
112
124
124
125
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
118
118
119
113
113
113
120
121
121
109
119
119
120
124
123
124
111
ni
112
104
103
105
113
114
n3
no
112
124
125
126
119
119
120
113
113
114
123
124
125
111
112
113
120
121
121
125
125
125
112
113
113
105
106
106
115
115
116
113
110
109
127
129
130
April
May
June
120
121
122
115
115
115
128
128
129
114
114
115
122
123
123
127
127
127
113
114
114
106
107
107
115
116
116
ni
112
114
128
126
130
Julv
August
September
122
122
122
116
117
117
130
130
130
115
115
116
124
124
125
r!27
r!26
r!31
114
115
115
106
105
106
117
rl!9
120
112
112
pl!3
132
132
p!33
October
November
December
r!22
123
117
117
131
(NR.)
116
117
126
(M)
r!3l
129
116
(M)
106
p!07
p!20
(M)
(M)
(NA)
no
110
no
110
108
no
no
109
110
112
108
108
109
115
115
114
110
110
110
109
109
109
118
118
117
110
109
109
109
109
120
120
118
109
110
110
121
118
119
109
110
125
125
124
112
no
ni
ni
in
126
124
122
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.
DECEMBER
1971
93
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
D
Q| INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Continued
Year
and
month
1969
j an uary .
February
March
121. OECD,1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
19. United
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks©
143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices®
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
(1967-100)
(1967-100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
STOCK PRICES
146. France,
index of
stock
prices®
148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®
147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices®
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
(1967=100)
142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices®
145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices®
115
114
116
113
no
114
111
no
114
114
124
126
128
126
in
165
159
153
112
126
136
136
137
138
129
131
132
100
98
100
April ...
May , . .
June . . .
125
126
128
134
134
136
117
118
119
115
113
116
no
114
108
114
120
112
151
143
133
134
142
130
139
145
147
137
142
144
112
113
July
August
September
126
127
127
139
138
143
119
119
118
116
114
108
103
102
103
107
106
109
128
128
130
127
133
133
142
148
150
141
139
147
108
112
113
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March ..
130
132
134
14-6
145
149
119
119
120
102
101
105
104
105
99
no
127
129
132
142
140
145
156
164
159
150
156
161
120
121
134
136
136
148
152
154
122
124
124
118
119
120
98
95
96
139
135
131
153
149
146
152
149
147
167
165
172
116
April
May
June
135
138
134
157
157
163
125
125
123
118
117
116
93
83
82
n5
n3
n6
n3
97
94
129
116
113
140
136
132
147
135
129
171
148
149
120
112
106
July
August
September
135
133
132
164
162
164
124
124
124
118
112
119
82
85
90
93
95
99
115
118
120
136
138
135
127
133
128
150
151
148
103
107
103
October .
November
December
1971
January
February
March
135
133
134
163
160
164
125
125
125
117
120
118
92
92
98
101
100
104
128
120
121
137
134
135
126
121
n9
145
145
140
101
96
94
141
164
164
168
127
127
126
117
117
116
102
106
108
108
108
109
123
122
120
136
139
137
125
134
137
145
151
161
91
94
93
April
May
June
no
137
139
165
158
168
127
126
128
113
113
113
112
111
108
112
108
109
131
146
147
137
141
140
135
138
137
171
172
182
89
85
83
July
August
September
139
r!32
p!36
169
168
rl71
128
125
p!28
111
r!05
pll6
108
106
108
109
107
108
157
158
164
141
135
128
135
136
129
190
179
170
83
82
78
October
November
December
(M)
pl67
(NO
(M)
(M)
106
101
p!07
100
98
p!05
160
161
pl69
rpn7
pl!4
pl!9
124
124
p!31
166
168
p!78
F79
p76
P77
122
123
140
138
108
114
114
in
n5
n6
116
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; a p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 62 and 63.
•'Organization for Economic
94
Cooperation and Development.
DECEMBER 1971
BCII
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
C
1
T/C
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
2.25
1.79
1.50
1.48
C
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
*1.
*5.
*6.
8
Average workweek of production workers, mfg
Avg. initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts total value.
9. Construction contracts, commercial and indus
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
*12 Index of net business formation
14. Liabilities of business failures ®
Jan. '53-Aug. 71..
Jan. '53-Dec. '70 . .
Jan. '53-Jul. '71 ..
Jan. '53-June '70 . .
0.46
0.42
4.32
0.17
2.10
2.48
4.86
3.37
3.00
1.26
2.38
6.68
6.41
1.54
4.15
8.94
1.12
1.39
3.39
Jan. '53-June '70 . . 9.08
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 .. 5.00
Jan. '53- Apr. 71 . . .85
Jan. '53- Apr. 71 . . 2.50
Jan.'53-Feb.71.. 22.11
*17.
*19
*23
24.
28.
.62
Jan. '53-Aug. 71..
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Jan. '53-June 70 . . 2.4-9
Stock prices 500 common stocks ©
Jan. '53-June 70.. 1.39
Industrial materials prices ® •,
New orders, producers' capital goods Industries. . . .
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 .. 4.29
2
Jan. '59-May 70 .. 7.05
New private housing units started, total
*29
*41.
42
46.
*47
New building permits private housing
Employees on nona.gr icultural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Help-wanted advertising
Industrial production
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
*52. Personal income
53 Wages salaries in mining mfg construction
Jan. '53- May 71.. 4.16
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 . . .29
Jan. '53-Dec. 70 . . .33
Jan. '53-Dec. '69 . . 2.55
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 . . .88
Jan. '53-July 71 ..
Jan. '53-June 71 . .
Jan. '53-Aug. 71
Ion 'S?-^pn '70.
Ian 'S3-Drt '7fl
Jan. '53-June 71 . •
Jan. '53-Oct. 70 • •
*62 Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 - •
65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of finished goods. . . Jan. '53-June 71 • •
66 Consumer installment debt
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories. .
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
96 Unfilled orders durable gonris industries
810 12 leadins indicators reverse trend adjusted
R13
Maroinal pmnlnvmpnt afTui^trnpnt^ .............
814 Capital investment commitments
816 Profitability
Jan. '53-Sep. 70 .
Jan. '53-June 71 .
.Jan. '53-June 71 .
Jan. '53-May 71 .
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 .
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
4.71
.63
2.23
21.50
.55
1.74
.98
.60
.93
2.20
.27
1.59
.88
2
1
1
2
.53
.49
.84
.96
.51
1
2
1
2
1
.13
1
1.09
3.60
1.73
2.08
1.97
.29
.25
.50
.77
.28
.52
.60
.45
.19
.21
.59
.61
.10
.75
.14
.49
.27
.16
.57
.16
.28
.54
.81
.10
.79
1.29
.69
.51
.64
.76
.74
2.06
4.44
.40
.58
.80
.91
.52
.86
3
1
2
1
1
9.77
1.52
.68
1.75
.81
.62
.69
.98
.84
2.41
6.74
1.49
1.41
.18
.29
.49
.90
.50
.81
1.12
'53-June 70 .
'53-Apr. 71 .
'53-June 70 .
'53-June 70 .
'53-June 70 .
.95
.89
.85
.84
.93
.54
.50
.66
.70
.53
.76
.65
.48
.43
.68
Jan. '53-Apr. 71 .
Jan. '53-July 71 .
Jan. '53-July 71 .
.96
.90
.86
.84
.45
.30
.39
.74
.80
.14
.16
.75
.73
.79
.87
3
2
2
3
5
1.05
1.11
2.80
.25
.20
0.84
C1)
.89
.57
.83
1.40
.13
.25
3
3
3
5
6
4
2
3
6
8.00
3.93
.51
1.00
2.06
.51
1.25
.76
.74
1.02
.49
.84
1.72
.67
1.32
.89
1.73
1.57
.35
.36
.44
.71
.78
1.38
1.63
.77
1
C)
1.82
1.61
10.14 ,
14.33
10.09
1.56
1.45
8.71
1.56
1.51
14.93
1.66
1.53
8.22
3.17
2.67
1.56
6.44
4.36
1.82
1.56
8.76
3.14
1.51
1.47
10.85
2.65
3.81
4.10
3.15
3.67
2.91
1.94
1.56
7.96
2.46
1.63
9.09
3.40
4.08
2.65
1.77
9.95
3..78
1.85
1.61
11.10
3.06
1.64
1.53
7.56
2.81
1.85
1.46
5.57
1.52
11.00
18.58
14.33
10.15
11.11
3.35
5.57
4.80
3.15
3.57
2.29
1.58
3.50
1.43
3.64
1.55
2.77
5.97
1.50
2.82
1.54
2.08
1.56
13.06
31.57
14.87
17.67
.67
.76
.89
.97
.51
4.73
2.54
1.72
1.66
11.21
20.09
4.00
3.80
2.12
1.64
8.52
3.80
1.60
3.75
1.44
10.62
15.79
3.75
.13
16.31
1.59
30.29
16.31
1.96
1.55
,1.48
8.15
1.62
4.83
1.67
15.79
31.57
20.00
13.06
3.14
7.62
2
1
1
1
.83
.35
.36
.44
1
1
2
2
1
.71
.78
.64
.92
.77
3
1.59
3.50
3.64
5,97
2.82
4.73
3.52
7.62
8.15
4.83
3.87
1.54
11.00
3.87
3.42
2.01
1.66
1.46
9.13
9.95
3.42
4.08
2.18
1.58
9.95
3.01
3.12
1.71
7.74
3.12
2.01
8.42
3.95
1
1
.95
.61
.37
1.68
.61
.37
5.29
1.48
7.16
1.53
14.80
17.08
7.16
.89
1
6
6
4
4
.89
3.80
1.64
8.52
3.80
C1)
C1)
.90
.98
1.61
1.61
3.04
1.41
1.37
13.45
13.71
1.65
1.52
7.95
2.88
1.92
1.78
8.71
3.37
6.65
2.15
5.29
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
58.
502
506.
508
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods ®
Exports excluding military aid
Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
Export orders nonelectrical machinery.
616 Defense Department obligations total
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
625 Military contract awards in US.
Jan. '53-Oct. 70 .
Jan. '59-May 71 .
Jan. '63-Jan. 71 .
Jan. '57-Dec. 70 .
Jan. '59-May 71 .
750 Wholesale prices all commodities (u)
July '53-Sep. 70 •
Jan. '56-Dec. 70 •
Jan. '53-Dec. 70 .
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 .
Jan. '53-Sep. 70 •
751
752
781
782
783
784.
Jan. '53- May 71 .
Jan. '53-May 71 .
Jan. '53-Oct. ' 7 0 .
Jan. '53-May 71 .
Jan. '56- May 71 .
Jan. '56-Oct. 70 .
Wholesale prices processed foods and feeds
Wholesale prices farm products
Consumer prices all items (u)
Consumer prices food
Consumer prices commodities less foods
Consumer orices. services (u)
.21
6.31
6.22
8.27
12.00
1.25
9.64
6.35
6.05
1.71
3.54
4.52
4.18
1.13
3.71
12.17
12.31
23.36
19.35
18.22
.30
.59
1.15
.23
.39
.21
.31
12.06
23.17
19.26
18.10
.24
.48
1.02
.11
.26
.12
.07
1.23
9.82
2.01
11.53
2.37
8.12
1.46
12.39
.15
.32
.48
.20
.25
.17
.31
1.54
1.50
2.13
.56
1.04
.71
.24
1
2.12
6
6
6
6
2
C )
C1)
C1)
C1)
.89
1.51
1.51
1.47
1.46
8.52
2.21
2.15
1.43
1.40
9.77
2.28
1.57
2.72
1.51
1.68
9.64
4.14
2
3
1
2
1
1
.93
.88
.56
.63
.71
.24
2.62
1.63
11.00
3.65
1.91
1.56
8.46
3.96
5.07
1.61
12.53
5.07
2.82
1.71
7.86
4.21
3.91
1.50
59.00
1.59
14.15
177.00
59.00
11.10
2.36
3.91
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
95
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
MCD
span
Cl
1
C
MCD
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
851.
852.
853.
856.
859.
Ratio, inventories to sales mfg. and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods .
Ratio, production of bus. equip, to consumer goods.
Real avg. hourly earnings, production workers, mfg.
Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers
Jan. '53-June 71..
Jan. '53-June 71..
Jan. '53-Jul. '71 . .
Jan. '53-June '70. .
0.92
1.841.07
.38
0.81
1.59
.80
.35
0.41
.83
.72
.17
Jan. '60-Aug. 71 . .
.34
.30
121.
122
123
125
126
OECD European countries, industrial production .. Jan. '53-May '71 . .
Jan. '53-May '71 . .
United Kingdom industrial production
Jan. '53-May '71 . .
Canada industrial production
West Germany industrial production
Jan. '53-June 71..
Jan. '53-May 71 . .
France industrial production
.90
1.08
1.00
1.30
1.67
127.
128.
132
133
135
Italy, industrial production
Japan, industrial production
United Kingdom consumer prices(u)
Canada consumer prices (u)
West Germany consumer prices(u)
Jan. '53-May 71 • •
Jan. '53-June 71- •
Jan. '53-April 70-Jan. '53-June 70-Jan. '53-June 70 ••
136
137.
138
142
143
France consumer prices(ijh ...
Italy, consumer prices®
Japan consumer prices®
United Kingdom stock prices(u)
Canada stock prices @
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-May 70
'53-Apr. 70
'53-June 70
'53-June 70
'53-June 70
145
146
147
148
West Germany stock prices (3)
France stock prices @
Italy stock prices@
Japan stock prices®
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-June 70 . . 3.23
'53-June 70 . . 3.97
'53-June 70 . . 3.63
'53-June 70 . . 3.57
1.94
1.91
1.10
2.05
3
3
2
3
0.72
.76
.57
.78
2.80
2.19
2.88
3.03
1.59
1.69
1.52
1.57
8.50
11.63
9.65
9.95
4.87
3.98
4.70
6.27
.14
2.11
3
.74
2.11
1.70
9.93
3.61
.90
1.04
.97
1.21
1.68
.55
.37
.51
.65
.62
1.64
2.81
1.91
1.87
2.71
2
3
2
2
4
.87
.98
.91
.94
.78
4.58
2.62
3.28
2.95
3.39
1.63
1.51
1.55
1.55
1.58
24.44
9.57
14.67
22.10
13.56
7.30
4.84
5.92
5.50
7.30
1.60
1.71
.47
.27
.32
1.47
1.49
.48
.32
.36
.73
1.20
.30
.21
.23
2.01
1.24
1.61
1.52
1.60
3
2
2
2
3
.75
.59
.96
.80
.69
2.86
4.70
6.68
9.95
8.36
1.69
1.52
1.72
1.90
1.94
22.00
14.73
15.92
13.06
13.06
7.79
9.57
7.10
14.86
11.50
.51
.32
.81
3.18
2.78
.43
.34
.73
2.41
2.19
.40
.30
.41
1.81
1.53
1.07
1.13
1.81
1.33
1.43
2
2
3
2
2
.55
.61
.68
.84
.94
8.32
18.82
3.17
2.75
3.03
1.56
1.77
1.61
1.79
1.77
10.40
8.28
12.29
8.36
9.95
9.00
22.89
6.47
3.71
3.92
2.03
3.30
2.95
2.45
2.27
1.88
1.73
2.24
.90
1.75
1.71
1.09
1
3
3
2
.90
.68
.78
.67
3.54
2.43
2.40
3.12
1.80
1.70
1.87
1.67
7.74
7.21
8.36
7.21
3.54
4.22
4.81
4.62
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
.
----••
*Series included in the 1966 NBER 'short list" of 26 indicators.
when MCD is "6."
Measures are based on unadjusted data.
1
Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business
Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper
57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"CT is the average month-to-month percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
(i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal,
trading-day, and holiday variations).
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-montfa
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar.,
Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the
96
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so.
Thus, it indicates the point at which
fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series
with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and jpr spans
of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD)
of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1—Continued
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1adjusted series has been successfully separated into an
month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
component.
Finally, ADR is 4.13 for the MCD moving
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month interaverage. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of
vals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the
the seasonally adjusted series (3 months being the MCD
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4
CI is 1.75 for the series on average weekly initial claims,
months. The increase in the ADR from 1.75 for CI to 4.13
State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates
for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series,
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on
month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually
the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a
reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series,
random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two
whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adcolumns, 1.47 for I and 12.00 for C, suggest that the seasonally
justed series usually do not.
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Unit of
measure
CI
I
C
r/c
MCD
I/C
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
3.
20.
21.
25.
Jan. '53-Jul. '71 . Per 100
employees .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Jan. '53-June '70. ..do
Jan. '53-June '71. Ann. rate,
Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies.
bil.dol....
Avg. wkly. overtime hrs., prod, workers, mfg. Jan. '56-Aug. 71. Hours
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. . Jan. '53-June '71. Bil.dol
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments 60 days or longer (§)
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories .
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
33 Change in mortgage debt
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
40.
*43.
*44.
45.
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Average weekly insured unemploy. rate
93. Free reserves®
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at comm. banks (M2)
103. Change in money sup. plus time dep. at
banks and nonbank inst. (M3)
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
114 Treasury bill rate©
116 Corporate bond yields (u)
118. Mortgage yields, residential ©
Jan. '53-Oct. '70.
Jan. '53-June '71.
Pet. reporting
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
0.18
.15
0.17
.14
0.05
.06
3.08
2.33
4
3
.81 2.02
.82 2.32
1.52
1.51
9.65
9.95
3.37
5.31
1.46
.09
.51
1.44
.08
.49
.19
.04
.13
7.59
1.97
3.80
6
3
5
C1)
.65
.90
1.61
3.53
1.79
1.52
1.52
1.56
10.52
11.69
7.66
2.81
6.85
2.99
5.71
5.57
5.23
6
C1)
1.81
1.65
11.21
4.62
4.05
4.00
.54
7.40.
6
C1)
1.41
1.39
11.05
2.63
1.83
1.60
3
.73
2.82
1.79
2.60
3
.89
1.87
1.57
11.24
3.10
1.06
8.35
4.57
Pet. reporting
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
3.58
2.94
1.27
1.11
Jan. '53-Oct. '70.
Jan. '53-Dec. '70.
Jan. '55-Mar. '71 Jan. '53-Mar. '71 .
Jan. '53-Dec. '70Jan. '53-Oct. '70 .
Pet. reporting
Percent
... do
...do
...do
..-do
5.12
.08
.15
.17
.07
.16
4.84
.07
.12
.14
.06
.09
1.54 3.15
.02 3.79
.08 1.56
.10 1.43
.05 1.22
.74
.12
4
5
2
2
2
1
.98
.92
.84
.76
.62
.74
2.17
2.17
3.53
2.60
4.67
4.63
1.69
1.87
1.47
1.47
1.60
1.75
7.61
7.41
10.78
9.91
6.72
8.19
4.57
4.59
4.49
3.95
6.29
4.63
Jan. '53-Nov. '70.
Ann. rate,
percent
Mil. dol
2.89
94.10
2.89
74.67
.48 6.06
V8.15 1.55
6
2
C1)
.93
1.61
2.05
1.48
1.58
6.69
9.95
2.82
3.20
Jan. '53-May '71.
Ann. rate,
percent
2.46
2.45
.53
4.63
5
.97
1.54
1.50
6.47
2.16
Feb. '64-Mar 71.
Aug. '59-Jun. 71.
1.76
1.68
.66
2.56
3
.92
1.73
1.60
9.44
3.61
1
Jan. '53-Sep. 70.
. do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
...do
1,50
1.56
6.50
11.78
3.18
3.13
Jan. '53-Oct. 70.
Jan. '53-Oct. 70.
Jan. '53-Oct. 70.
Jan. '53-Oct. 70.
Jan. '53-Oct. 70.
Percent
...do
...do
...do
... do
6.66
8.19
10.65
8.88
6.09
3.79
4.69
3.98
4.22
6.12
6.96
2.63
Jan. '53-Feb. '71.
Jan. '55-Dec. '70.
Jan. '53-June '70.
2.57
.95
.16
.08
.12
.10
.68
2.52
.87
.11
.06
.11
.08
.73
.43
.50
.33
5.09
2.66
6
3
C)
.11
.04
.06
.04
.11
1.02
1.59
1.65
1.88
6.61
2
3
3
3
6
.66 2.63
.74 2.66
.71 2.39
.83 2.57
C 1 ) 4.63
1.82
1.90
1.69
1.85
2.37
5.25
6
t1)
1.54
1.43
.93
1.69
1.71
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
500. Merchandise trade balance
Jan.'58-May71 . Mil. dol
104.3
101.3
19.3
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
«Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
2
when MCD is "6."
Bimonthly series; average changes , MCD, and average durations of run are for "bimonthly spans.
Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month change in the
seasonally adjusted series.
This average is computed
without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of
measure as the series itself.
1
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
97
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
I/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
A. NATIONAL IN COME AND PRO DUCT
200.
205
210
215
217.
220.
222.
GNP in current dol lars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
National income, current dollars
Personal income, current dollars
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ'70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IVQ70...
IQ'53-IVQ'70...
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
1.59
1.18
.61
1.33
1.00
1.66
1.54
.30
.30
.11
.28
.31
.33
.22
1.54
1.07
.60
1.26
.87
1.57
1.51
.19
.28
.18
.23
.35
.21
.15
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.19
7.67
3.63
.28
.18 17.25
.23
6.45
.35
4.44
.21 7.67
.15 13.80
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, constant dollars ....
Per capita disposable personal income, current dol.
Per capita disposable personal income, constant
dollars
230. Total personal consumption expenditures, current
dol lars
231. Total personal consumption expenditures, constant
dollars
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-1VQ70...
1.49
1.07
1.17
.27
.29
.24
1.44
1.00
1.13
.19
.29
.22
1
1
1
.19
.29
.22
IQ'53-IVQ70...
.82
.28
.73
.39
1
.39
4.44
IQ'53-IIQ70....
1.47
.33
1.43
.23
1
.23
IQ'53-11Q70....
1.02
.37
.98
.37
1
232. Personal consumption
233. Personal consumption
except automobiles
234 Personal consumption
236. Personal consumption
237. Personal consumption
expenditures, durable goods
expenditures, durable goods,
IQ'53-IIQ70....
3.05
1.47
2.32
.64
expend automobiles
expend., nondurable goods .
expenditures, services
10 '53-110 '70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
2.09
6.00
1.23
1.76
.85
3.62
.44
.20
1.84
4.01
1.19
1.73
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ'70....
243. Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment . . 1Q'53-IIQ70....
244 Fixed investment, residential structures
IQ'53-IIQ70....
4.56
2.56
2.74
3.13
3.44
2.08
.83
1.65
1.15
1.12
252
253
260
262.
264.
3.79
3.1$
1.95
2.22
1.30
1.30
1.33
1.31
1.27
1.35
1.25
9.86
6.90
34.50
10.14
7.10
11.50
13.80
7.67
3.63
17.25
6.45
4.44
7.67
13.80
13.80
1.35
6.27 , 1.35
1.29
6.45
69.00
9.86
10.14
13.80
6.27
6.45
1.37
7.10
4.44
9.86
1.25
69.00
9.86
.37
5.31
1.21
7.67
5.31
1
.64
2.76
1.19
4.60
2.76
.46
.90
.37
.12
1
1
1
1
.46
.90
.37
.12
4.31
2.38
6.27
69.00
1.28
1.25
1.30
1.25
6.90
3.45
34.50
69.00
4.31
2.38
6.27
69.00
3.37
2.38
2.13
2.67
3.10
.62
.35
.78
.43
.36
1
1
1
1
1
.62
.35
.78
.43
.36
2.56
4.60
2.30
2.88
3.45
1.41
1.33
1.23
1.23
1.33
4.31
6.27
4.06
4.31
6.27
2.56
4.60
2.30
2.88
3.45
2.40
1.86
.57
.92
2.63
2.37
1.83
1.91
.91
.79
.31
.48
1
1
1
1
.91
.79
.31
.48
2.76
2.76
5.75
2.88
1.35
1.30
1.28
1.28
5.31
6.27
13.80
4.31
2.76
2.76
5.75
2.88
2.19
!Q'53-IIQ70....
266. State and local gov. purchases, goods and services IQ '53-IIQ 70. . . . 2.35
.83
.44
1.82
2.34
.45
.19
l
1
.45
.19
2.65
23.00
1.23
1.28
4.60
23.00
2.65
23.00
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ '53-110 70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ'70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70-..-
2.19
1.30
1.68
1.21
.99
4.10
.87
.49
.24
.61
.35
2.10
1.88
1.24
1.64
.97
.91
3.20
.46
.40
.14
.62
.38
.66
1
1
1
1
1
1
.46
.40
.14
.62
.38
.66
3.29
6.27
9.86
2.46
9.86
2.88
1.30
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.35
1.21
7.67
17.25
9.86
5.75
6.27
3.63
3.29
6.27
9.86
2.46
9.86
2.88
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70---IQ'53-IIQ70-...
3.85
4.67
8.87
.89
2.28
6.87
3.81
3.61
4.90
.23
.63
1.40
1
1
2
.23
.63
.50
23.00
3.14
1.53
1.28
1.21
1.30
23.00
6.27
4.06
23.00
3.14
2.34
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
8.98
1.82
5.35
.34
6.25
1.78
.85
.19
1
1
.85
.19
2.16
23.00
1.28
1.30
IQ'53-IIQ71....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ '53HVQ '69 ...
8.37
4.85
1.48
2.90
4.31 . 6.35
3.74
2.79
.30
1.46
2.65
.97
.68
.75
.21
.37
1
1
1
1
.68
2.61
.75
2.65
.21 13.80
3.94
.37
1.26
1.21
1.21
1.16
3.32
4.06
13.80
6.09
2.61
2.65
13.80
3.94
224.
225.
226.
227.
240. Gross private domestic investment, total
241 Total nonresidential fixed investment
270.
274
280
282
284
286.
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Gov purchases of goods 3nd services total
Federal Gov. purchases of goods and services . .
Federal Government purchases of goods and
Final sales durable goods
Final sales nondurable goods
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adjustment. .
288
290
292
294.
Net interest
Gross saving private and government
Personal saving
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory
valuation adjustment
296 Capita! consumption allowances
IQ'53-IIQ'70....
1Q'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
.IQ'53-IIQ70....
3.14
23.00
2.16
23.00
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
11
*16
57
*61.
68.
New capital appropriations manufacturing
Corporate profits after taxes
Final sales . . . .*
Business expend., new plant and equipment
Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing .
*200 GNP in current dollars
*205 GNP in 1958 dollars
.91
IQ '53-11(370....
4.97
IQ'53-IIQ71....
IQ '53-IVQ 70 . . . 9.77
1.59
IQ'53-IIQ70....
1.18
IQ'53-IIQ70....
.36
.86
6.36
.30
.30
.79
4.79
6.82
1.54
1.07
.46
.18
.93
.19
.28
1
1
1
1
1
.46
.18
.93
.19
.28
4.06
3.84
2.54
7.67
3.63
1.28
1.28
1.22
1.30
1.30
5.31
6.64
3.74
9.86
6.90
4.06
3.84
2.54
7.67
3.63
2.88
2.21
1.46
7.79
2.73
1.12
.83
.25
5.39
1.45
2.55
1.72
1.42
4.41
1.77
.44
.48
.17
1.22
.82
1
1
1
2
1
.44
.48
.17
.56
.82
3.40
4.83
8.29
1.96
2.25
1.16
1.38
1.29
1.31
1.13
5.67
7.25
11.60
3.13
3.46
3.40
4.83
8.29
2.30
2.25
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
61a.
410
412
430a
435.
Business expend., new plant and equipment
Manufacturers' sales total value
Manufacturers' inventories total book value
New car purchases by households
Index of consumer sentiment
IQ'57-IVQ'69 ...
IQ'57-IIIQ71 ...
IQ'57-IIIQ71 ...
IQ '59-IVQ 70 ...
IIQ'57-IIIQ'68-»
See definitions of measures at end of part 1.
98
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
I/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
252.
253.
264.
^30
532.
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
National defense purchases
Liquid liabilities to all foreigners
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official agencies
534
536
537.
540.
U S official reserve assets
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports, adjusted
Investment income, military sales, and other
services exports
541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures,
IQ'6(HIQ70....
IQ'6(HIQ'70....
IQ'53-IIQ'70....
IQ'6(HQ'70""
3.79
3.18
2.19
2.62
2.40
1.86
.83
1.06
2.63
2.37
1.82
2.09
IQ'6(HQf70....
4.38
2.85
2.84
IQ '6(HQ '70 ....
IQ '6(HQ '70 ....
IQ '60-IQ '70 ....
2.19
4.59
4.40
1.14
3.39
2.60
IQ '60-IQ '70 ....
3.49
IQ '60-IQ '70 ....
1
1
1
1
.91
.79
.45
.51
2.76
2.76
2.65
2.35
1.35
1.30
1.23
1.29
5.31
6.27
4.60
2.86
2.76
2.76
2,65
2.35
1.00
2
.33
2.11
1.14
3.08
2.60
1.80
2.58
3.16
.63
1.31
.82
1
2
1
.63
.62
.82
2.86
1.74
3.08
1.29
1.38
1.29
3.64
3.64
6.67
2.86
3.55
3.08
2.14
2.60
.82
1
.82
1.90
1.33
8.00
1.90
2.57
1.34
2.07
.65
1
.65
2.50
1.21
6.67
2.50
.91
.79
.45
.51
542
543
544
545
546
Income on U S investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S
Payments by U S. travelers abroad
Military sales to foreigners
'70-.. •
'70....
'70....
'70....
'70....
5.64
4.98
3.32
3.88
18.40
3.72
1.89
1.73
2.58
14.24
3.72
4.77
2.69
2.61
9.02
1.00
.40
.64
.99
1.58
2
1
1
1
2
.40
.40
.64
.99
.68
1.90
5.00
3.08
2.35
1.43
1.18
1.18
1.38
1.21
1.25
3.64
6.67
4.44
3.64
2.22
3.00
5.00
3.08
2.35
2.17
547.
548.
549.
601.
602.
U S military expenditures abroad
IQ '60-IQ '70....
Receipts from transportation and other services. . . IQ '60-IQ '70 ....
Payments for transportation and other services . . .IQ '60-IQ '70....
Fed. receipts, nat'l. income and product accts
IQ'53-IIQ'70....
Fed. expend., nat'l. income and product accts. . . IQ'53-IIQ'70....
.
3.56
2.60
3.34
2.53
2.15
2.16
1.69
2.42
.90
.90
2.51
1.98
1.84
2.33
1.90
.86
.85
1.31
.38
.47
1
1
2
1
1
.86
.85
.58
.38
.47
2.11
3.08
1.82
3.63
4.60
1.29
1.25
1.21
1.30
1.25
3.64
13.33
6.67
6.27
6.27
2.11
3.08
2.79
3.63
4.60
8.48
.85
6.81
.38
4.67
.69
1.46
.54
2
1
54
.54
1.47
3.17
1.30
1.28
3.63
6.64
3.24
3.17
IQ
IQ
IQ
IQ
IQ
'60-IQ
'60-IQ
'60-IQ
'60-IQ
'60-IQ
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal
IQ'53-IIQ'70 ...
IQ'53-IIQ'71 . - •
*Series included in the 19bb NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators,
by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted
from Journal of Business, October 1957).
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated
by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with
a QCD greater than "2" are shown as "3"
"CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the
unadjusted series.
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad justed
series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of
the period of QCD. When QCD is "3", no I/C ratio is shown for
the QCD period.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained
by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an
estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclica 1 component over 1-quarter
spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.),
2-quarter spans (1st quarter-3d quarter, 2d quarter-4th
quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of
observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and
the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving
average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the
seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter
intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of Cl is
1.47 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter
99
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average,
reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.30 for I
and 3.63 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has
been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is
3.24 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a
2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series
(2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the
average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR
from 1.47 for CI to 3.24 for the QCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend
movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Unit of
measure
CI
I
C
r/c
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
QCD
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
245 Change in business inventories total ...
IQ'53-IIQ '70...
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods.
275. Change in bus. inventories, nondurable goods .
IQ'53-IIQ 70...
IQ'53-IIQ 70...
IQ'53-IIQ 70...
IQ'53-IIQ70...
9Qfi
nnwprnmpnt QiirnliiQ nr dpfirit tnt^l
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
...do
...do
...do
...do
1.60 1.14
.61 .78
1.38 1.08
.56 2.09
.59
2.46
2.76
.84
2.34
1.42
2.89
1.82
.48
1.48
1.17
1.44
Cents
.48
.28
.32
Percent
...do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
.46
.16
.31
.09
.33
.14
2
1
2
2
1
.53
.78
.52
.89
.59
1.68
2.46
1.60
1.53
3.00
1.35
1.33
1.33
1.30
1.38
3.63
3.83
2.76
2.38
4.06
2.72
2.46
2.72
2.12
3.00
.87
1
.87
2.59
1.32
3.33
2.59
.95
.63
1
1
.95
.63
2.56
2.57
1.25
1.44
5.31
4.00
2.56
2.57
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg.i. . IQ'53-IIIQ70...
22. Ratio of profits to income originating,
•IQJ53-IIQ/70...
corporate all industries
*67 Bank rates on short-term bus loans®
IQ'53-IIQ 70*'.'.
245 Change in business inventories total
2.76
1.82
1.60
1.14
2
.53
1.68
1.35
3.63
2.72
Mil. dol
... do
... do
269.0
267.0
288.0
201.0
211.5
235.8
151.9
139.4
134.9
1.32
1.52
1.75
2
2
2
.52 1.62
.56 1.62
.61 1.62
1.17
1.17
1.31
3.00
3.00
3.00
2.22
2.22
2.22
... do
... do
... do
...do
...do
...do
...do
765.2 598.8 349.4
800.3 473.8 494.5
1,239.0 743.1 776.1
38.0
79.8
65.7
239.4 190.4
87.7
181.1
139.0 105.2
133.4 114.0
75.2
1.71
.90
.96
.96
1.73
2.17
1.32
1.52
2
1
1
3
3
2
2
C1)
C1)
.67
.45
1.75
2.10
1.75
1.46
1.52
1.71
1.32
1.31
1.50
1.31
1.21
1.41
1.32
1.17
3.00
3.50
2.10
1.86
2.56
2.73
2.73
1.82
2.10
1.75
2.00
2.44
2.11
2.35
1.70
1.49
2
2
.67
.76
1.52
1.46
1.28
1.32
2.16
2.05
2.35
1.82
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
U.S. Balance of Payments:
250 Balance on goods and services
515. Balance on goods, services, and remittances .
IQ '66-IIQ 71**'
IQ '66-IIQ 71...
519. Balance on current account and long term
IQ '66-IIQ 71...
521
522
560
561
564
Net liouidity balance
Official reserve transactions balance
Foreign direct investments in the U S
U S direct investments abroad
Foreign purchases of U S securities
IQ '66-IIQ 71...
|Q'60-IIQ70...
IQ'60-NQ70...
IQWIQ70...
IQ'60-IIQ'70...
570! Government grants and capital transactions,
IQ'60-IIQ70...
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net. . . IQ '60-IIQ 70...
600. Fed. balance, nat'l. income and product accts. IQ'53-IIQ 70...
...do
309.8
...do
327.2
Ann. rate,
bil. dol.... 2.96
.96
.96
243.5
244.4
143.6
163.6
1.55
2.32
.67
1
.67
2.38
1.35
4.06
2.38
1.53
0.68
.15
3.69
1.31
.16
.42
.52
.89
1
1
1
.42
.52
.89
3.14
3.48
2.03
1.33
1.33
1.31
5.31
4.06
2.95
3.14
3.48
2.03
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
207 GNP gap (potential less actual)
857 Vacancy rate in total rental housing®
••
IQ'53-IIQ 70...
IQ'53-IIQ 71.. o
IQ'56-IVQ70 ..
...do
Percent ....
...do
4.37
1.61
.24
* Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators-,
when QCD is "3".
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
1
Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure
as the series itself.
100
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
B. Current Adjustment Factors
197 1
Series
5. Average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations
1
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of
sales mfg 2
33. Net change in mortgage debt held
by financial institutions and life
insurance companies1 ^
37. Purchased materials, percent of
companies reporting higher
inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over,
total installment loans ^
Jan.
Feb.
149.8
114-4
104. 6
94.1
99.9
100.3
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery.
625. Military contract awards in U.S
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 5 .. •
101.0
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
June
July
93.1
92.6
79.4
81.7
122.4
84.5
71.6
79.8
97.4
132.8
110.9
107.1
98.9
106.4
99.3
94.3
97.7
95.4
85.7
102.8
103 4
-6
-90
+371
110.2
104.9
105.8
107,9
+11
104.4
+213
+110
+66
-43
+231
99.9
93.2
86.4
94.7
90.8
95.8
98.9
91.3
93.1
102.9
96.4
-142
106.4
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
616. Defense Department obligations,
total
621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement
-LQL
Sept.
May
97. A
-332
Aug.
Apr.
Mar.
112.9
99-2
99.8
100.1
100.1
100.7
101.4
99.7
99.2
99.6
99.3
100.3
103.1
105.1
108.2
98.7
97.7
100.5
98.5
92.0
98.9
101.0
94.1
101.6
97.8
83.7
89.3
93.5
90.6
143.7
102.6
99.9
115.8
106.0
86.4
90.9
86.9
77.0
84.7
84.5
83.0
194.0
58.7
86.6
153.5
112.8
83.8
95.0
88.3
-14
86.7
84.5
79-5
+12
84.2
173.2
104.1
-8
93.7
118.4
112.1
+11
77.3
98.2
NOTE: These series are not published by the source agency Tn seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
820.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
COMPOSITE INDEX 'OF 5 C O I N C I D E N T I N D I C A T O R S
(1967=100)
II Q
III Q
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1948...
1949...
31.5
31.4
31.1
31.0
31.3
30.6
31.3
30.2
31.9
29.6
32.4
29.4
32.7
29.0
32.7
29.2
32.7
29.7
32.8
28.2
32.5
29.1
32.2
29.4
31.3
31.0
31.9
29.7
32.7
29.3
32*. 5
28.9
32.1
29.7
1950....
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
30.1
39.0
40.8
45.6
42.9
30.3
39.5
31.3
39.7
31.8
40.1
32.5
40.2
33.4
40.2
35.0
39.8
36.4
40.0
36.3
39.9
36.7
40.0
36.7
40.3
37.8
40.7
30.6
32.6
35.9
37.1
34.0
46.3
42.8
46.8
42.3
46.8
42.1
47.1
41.9
47.0
42.2
47.2
42.1
46.7
41.9
46.0
42.1
45.7
42.5
44.6
43.5
43.3
44.2
46.2
42.7
47.0
42.1
46.6
42.0
44.5
43.4
46.1
42.5
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
44.8
50.7
53.5
50.9
54.0
45.4
51.0
54.3
49.7
54.8
46.2
50.9
54.6
49.1
55.7
46.8
51.5
54.0
48.4
56.9
47.6
51.3
53.9
48.6
57.7
48.1
51.5
54.0
49.3
58.0
48.7
50.0
54.2
49.8
57.6
48.7
51.9
54.5
50.4
56.2
49.3
52.6
53.8
51.0
56.0
49.5
53.2
53.4
51.5
55.8
50.0
53.0
52.4
52.9
56.2
50.4
53.6
51.6
53.2
58.5
45.5
50.9
54.1
49.9
54.8
47.5
51.4
54.0
48.8
57.5
48.9
51.5
54.2
50.4
56.6
50.0
53.3
52.5
52.5
56.8
48.0
51.8
53.7
50.4
56.4
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
59.4
56.6
62.2
66.1
71.2
59.8
56.5
63.1
66.4
71.9
59.1
57.0
63.6
66.9
72.0
59.6
57.2
64.1
67.4
73.0
59.4
57.8
64.3
67.7
73.7
58.9
58.7
64.3
68.4
73.9
58.8
59.0
64.7
68.8
74.9
58.6
59.7
64.8
69.0
75.3
58.5
59.8
65.3
69.5
76.0
58.1
60.7
65.6
70.1
75.4
57.5
61.7
65.8
70.0
76.9
56.7
62.2
65.8
70.7
78.1
59.4
56.7
63.0
66.5
71.7
59.3
57.9
64.2
67.8
73.5
58.6
59.5
64.9
69.1
75.4
57.4
61.5
65.7
70.3
76.8
58.7
58.9
64.5
68.4
74.4
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
78.7
89.5
98.1
104.5
115.3
78.9
90.7
97.8
105.7
116.8
80.3
92.0
98.3
106.8
117.6
80.8
92.6
98.5
107.6
118.1
81.7
92.8
98.8
108.8
119.1
82.5
94.2
99.4
109.5
119.9
83.6
94.6
99.9
110.5
120.2
101.0
84.2
95.3
110.8
121.0
85.4
96.2
101.0
111.9
121.1
86.1
96.8
100.5
112.9
121.9
87.3
97.2
102.7
113.9
121.9
88.5
97.4
104.1
114.5
121.9
79.3
90.7
98.1
105.7
116.6
81.7
93.2
98.9
108.6
119.0
84.4
95.4
100.6
111.1
120.8
87.3
97.1
102.4
113.8
121.9
83.2
94.1
100.0
109.8
119.6
1970...
1971...
121.0
121.2
121.2
121.6
121.0
121.0
120.9
120.8
120.4
118.4
117.4
118.9
121. 1
121.2
120.7
118.2
120.3
820-B . PERCENT CHANGES IN COMPOSITE I N D E X OF 5 C O I N C I D E R S OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATEt PERCENT)
. ..
10117 " *
1948...
1949...
-29.8
-15.2
-15.3
7.7
-15.5
0.0
-15.7
23.0
-23.8
18.8
-8.1
11.1
-16.3
0.0
8.3
0.0
20.5
3.7
-60.6
-11.0
38.3
-11.1
12.4
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
28.6
38.1
2.9
-30.8
-11.1
8.0
15.4
17.6
18.4
-2.8
39.6
6.1
2.9
13.0
-14.0
19.2
12.1
0.0
0.0
-5.7
26.4
3.0
2.9
33.2
0.0
-5.8
57.5
-11.9
-20.3
48.0
6.0
47.2
-3.3
-3.0
39.7
13.2
3.0
19.2
0.0
9.0
13.5
36.0
11.9
50.8
-5.7
8.6
-2.8
-5.7
5.7
11.4
28.2
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
16.3
7.1
-2.2
-16.3
18.0
16.1
7.1
17.9
-28.3
17.8
21.1
-2.4
6.6
-14.5
19.7
15.6
14.1
-13.2
-17.1
25.9
20.5
-4.7
-2.2
5.0
16.9
12.6
4.7
2.2
17.3
6.2
15.0
-35.0
4.4
12.2
-8.3
0.0
45.6
6.6
14.5
-29.2
14.8
16.2
-15.4
14.3
-4.3
4.9
13.7
-8.9
11.8
-4.3
12.1
-4.5
-22.5
32.6
8.6
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
18.5
-2.1
0.0
5.5
8.5
8.1
-2.1
-14.0
10.6
10.2
4.2
-4.0
12.6
-10.1
18.7
-2.0
6.1
-4.1
14.2
-2.0
2.0
-8.2
18.1
-12.4
19.8
5.4
11.8
9.0
1.7
9.0
16.7
5.3
11.5
12.4
3.3
7.0
16.2
3.5
6.4
8.7
11.2
10.4
-9.5
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
9.2
13.6
8.6
4.6
8.4
3.0
16.1
-3.7
13.8
15.6
21.3
17.2
6.1
12.5
8.2
7.5
7.8
2.4
9.0
5.1
13.4
2.6
3.7
13.4
10.2
11.8
18.1
7.3
7.7
8.1
16.0
5.1
6.0
11.0
3.0
8.6
8.9
13.2
3.3
8.0
17.1
11.3
0.0
11.9
1.0
1970...
1971...
-8.9
17.2
2.0
-8.0
0.0
5.9
5.9
8.8
20. a
-15.3
0.0
11.6
13.9
-15.9
3.7
4.2
-6.1
-3.3
-8.8
19.3
25.4
19.9
7.8
0.2
-9.3
26.3
5.0
-1.0
1.7
-0.9
34.1
-3.0
22.2
-8.5
-0.9
16.4
8.0
27.8
-23.9
19.6
25.5
7.5
14.2
-7.6
2.1
9.6
13.6
-18.3
6.8
49.1
17.8
3.9
7.4
-19.7
18.5
16.2
4.7
-4.4
1.7
16.3
9.9
8.9
-1.5
13.7
-13.9
8.9
7.6
-16.6
17.1
17.8
13.2
6.3
-3.8
3.2
9.7
4.2
2.1
9.0
6.6
7.3
-1.3
11.8
4.4
-2.7
7.4
6.2
-12.4
15.9
3.1
-3.1
9.3
5.7
-1.7
23.9
-16.7
9.7
0.0
12.0
18.7
10.5
11.3
11.0
10.0
9.8
7.5
-5.9
10.7
7.9
16.7
5.0
16.5
2.5
11.2
15.6
10.9
9.5
10.6
0.0
6.3
0.0
10.3
10.7
10.0
7.8
13.9
8.4
6.4
8.7
4.0
14.3
5.0
12.3
9.2
2.6
12.6
9.6
6.7
9.6
6.3
15.3
-0.6
11.7
-2.0
-1.2
-2.5
7.7
-2.3
10.4
-4.9
0.0
-20.2
820-C . PERCENT CHANGES IN COMPOSITE I N D E X OF 5 C O I N C I D E R S OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATEi PERCENT)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
1947...
1948...
1949...
-2.5
10.3
14.1
17.9
10.0
3.7
1.2
-2.4
-1.4
-6.1
-4.0
-17.1
27.0
-17.9
14.1
-16.6
5.0
-4.1
-8 '.5
7.2
-7*8
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
16.5
30.5
10.9
12.5
-16.1
25.9
20.1
7.9
0.0
-9.2
22.6
11.3
6.9
10.5
-7.5
29.0
7.1
1.9
6.9
-8.4
26.8
5.0
-1.0
1.7
-0.9
40.3
-3.0
-7.7
3.4
0.0
48.0
-2.0
6.7
-3.4
0.0
34.7
-3.0
22.2
-8.5
-0.9
19.4
2.0
36.4
-12.7
3.8
3.3
3.0
24.6
-18.0
15.3
16.5
8.0
28.4
-23.5
20.0
25.1
8.0
10.8
-24.5
21.6
21.7
20.6
8.6
7.7
-10.9
32.0
3.0
-2.3
4.0
-3.1
34.0
-1.0
21.8
-8.2
1.0
15.0
6.3
21.3
-22.0
19.0
25.7
7.2
12.3
-4.6
1.5
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
17.5
8.0
9.8
-20.6
14.4
18.1
4.0
7.5
-19.4
18.8
17.9
6.3
3.7
-19.6
21.5
19.4
2.4
-2.9
-8.9
21.2
16.5
4.7
-4.4
1.6
16.5
16*2
-11.7
1.5
11.6
4.9
9.2
4.7
4.5
14.8
-10.4
10.0
8.5
-1.5
13.8
-13.8
6.6
25.6
-5.9
13.7
-12.5
10.7
8.5
-15.4
19.8
0.0
8.9
7.6
-16.4
17.3
17.9
9.7
2.3
-18.7
19.4
25.8
17.8
6. 1
7.0
-19.9
18.2
17.4
-1.5
-1.9
1.4
14.2
8.6
12.9
-1.0
14.1
-12.2
9.8
6.1
-16.8
18.8
14.6
13.4
5.9
-3.2
3.6
8.7
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
25.6
-7.0
9.1
3.6
10.9
4.1
2.1
9.0
6.7
7.4
1.3
4.2
12.2
7.9
10.1
-2.7
9.2
7.6
7.8
10.0
-1.4
11.9
4.4
9.0
10.6
-5.4
12.6
3.7
8.3
10.4
-5.4
13.1
3.1
7.7
8.7
-2.7
7.5
6.2
6.4
11.4
-4.8
11.5
5.6
7.6
2.7
-7.5
13.4
6.2
5.8
8.5
-12.3
16.1
3.1
6.9
11.1
-10.3
9.9
3.0
6.3
17.5
10.3
-0.2
10.1
6.1
9.5
-3.2
11.2
5.2
8.4
10.3
-4.3
10.7
5.0
7.2
7.6
-10.0
13.1
4.1
6.3
12.4
-1.8
8.7
6.1
7.0
9.9
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
10.4
15.6
2.5
11.7
10.2
11.3
15.8
3.7
10.4
10.8
10.7
13.9
1.6
11.9
14.2
9.3
4.1
11.7
11.0
9.6
4.5
10.1
13.9
8.6
5.7
10.8
12.2
10.8
8.9
7.4
8.5
6.4
8.8
9.3
2.4
8.7
5.7
8.0
6.7
11.2
3.0
5.0
12.3
9.3
2.6
15.8
5.4
15.9
8.5
-3.0
10.8
15.1
2.6
11.3
10.2
13.0
9.2
4.8
10.9
7.6
12.8
9.5
5.9
8.3
5.4
15.0
6.1
11.6
9.7
0.9
12.9
10.0
6.2
10.0
6.0
1970...
1971...
-2.3
13.6
-2.3
10.4
2.0
6.6
-0.7
6.9
-0.7
11.8
-2.3
4.6
-0.7
1.6
-2.0
-1.3
-8.3
3.9
-11.3
6.5
-5.0
7.4
-0.9
10.2
-1.2
7.8
-3.7
1.4
-3.0
-2.2
(DECEMBER i97i)
102
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index-Series Finding Gtride" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Dtftu ore seasonally adjusted unless the symbol @ (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
830.
May
COMPOSITE
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Annual
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS 1
( 1967=100)
1948...
1949...
27.9
31.1
28.5
30.7
28.9
30.3
29.1
29.7
29.4
29.1
29.8
28.5
30.3
27.9
30.6
27.4
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954,..
26.7
35.9
43.2
45.9
46.6
26.8
37.1
44.0
46.8
46.0
27.0
38.2
44.1
47.2
45.3
27.2
39.4
44.0
47.8
45.1
27.7
40.6
43.9
48.3
28.4
41.1
44.3
48.6
29.0
44.0
48.9
1955.,.
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
50.8
57.9
58.1
54.1
51.4
58.0
57.1
54.4
52.1
58.3
56.1
54.9
53.2
58.8
54.9
55.9
53.8
59.0
53.6
56.7
54.5
59.0
52.6
57.7
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
60.6
61.0
62.1
64.8
69.2
61.9
60.8
62.2
64.7
69.9
62.3
60.6
62.7
65.1
70.2
63.0
60.2
63.3
65.1
63.9
60.1
63.7
65.4
II Q
IIIQ
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
31.2
26.6
31.0
26.6
28.4
30.7
32.3
33.7
34.6
26.8
27.8
30.1
33.5
29.6
44.2
48.8
45.3
48.0
45.2
47.2
43.8
46.6
44.1
48.2
43.8
49.0
44.9
48.0
44.1
48.0
44.2
56.0
60.3
52.5
60.0
56.6
59.5
52.7
60.3
56.9
59.5
53.2
60.2
57.3
59.1
53.9
60.5
51.4
58.1
57.1
54.5
53.8
58.9
53.7
56.8
55.8
60.0
52.3
59.5
56.9
59.4
53.3
60.3
46.2
54.5
59.1
54.1
57.8
62.5
60.3
64.6
66.9
62.1
60.6
64.8
67.5
72.8
61.7
61.0
65.1
67.9
73.2
61.8
61.4
65.0
68.5
73.3
61.4
61.5
65.0
69.3
74.2
61.7
60.8
62.3
64.9
69.8
63.6
60.1
63.7
65.5
70.8
62.6
60.3
64.6
67.0
72.0
61.6
61.3
65.0
68.6
73.6
62.4
60.6
63.9
66.5
71.5
30.9
27.1
31.1
26.9
30.2
31.1
43.7
49.0
43.7
49.0
55.6
59.5
52.4
58.8
55.7
60.1
52.1
59.8
63.8
60.1
64.2
66.1
63.2
59.9
64.4
66.7
29.4
29.1
30.6
27.5
31.1
26.7
29)9
28.5
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
74.9
85.5
98.9
103.7
116.0
75.5
86.9
98.9
104.9
117.4
76.5
87.9
99.4
105.6
119.0
77.1
89.2
99.1
107.0
119.8
78.2
90.7
99.3
107.9
121.3
78.5
92.5
99.5
108.5
123.4
79.5
93.7
100.5
108.4
125.1
80.1
95.4
100.0
109.9
127.4
80.8
96.3
100.4
110.7
128.2
82.2
97.2
100.5
111.3
129.2
83.3
98.3
101.1
111.5
129.9
84.2
98.6
102.4
114.6
131.1
75.6
86.8
99.1
104.7
117.5
77.9
90.8
99.3
107.8
121.5
80.1
95.1
100.3
109.7
126.9
83.2
98.0
101.3
112.5
130.1
79.2
92.7
100.0
108.7
124.0
1970...
1971...
131.9
131.4
131.2
131.3
131.0
131.0
131.7
132.3
131.9
130.7
129.3
127.5
131.5
131.1
132.0
129.2
130.9
2
21. AVERAGE WEEKLY OVERTIME HOURS OF PRODUCTION WORKERS? MANUFACTURING
(HOURS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
*
•
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
3.2
2.9
1.9
2.5
3.0
2.7
1.9
2.6
2.8
2.6
1.7
2.8
2.8
2.5
1.7
2.8
2.7
2.3
1.8
2.9
2.7
2.3
1.9
2.9
2.7
2.3
1.9
2.8
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.9
2.7
2.2
2.2
2.7
2.8
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.8
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.8
1.9
2.5
2.5
3.0
2.7
1.8
2.6
2.7
2.4
1.8
2.9
2.6
2.2
2.1
2.8
2.8
2.0
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.3
2.0
2.7
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
3.0
2.1
2.8
2.7
2.9
2.8
2.1
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.1
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.4
2.2
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.2
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.5
2.3
2.8
2.9
3.1
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.8
3.2
2.3
2.6
2.8
2.4
2.7
2.7
3.2
3.2
2.1
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.2
2.0
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.4
2.8
2.1
2.8
2.7
2.9
2.5
2.2
2.8
2.7
3.0
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.1
2.2
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.8
2.8
3.1
1965...
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.6
4.0
3.4
4.0
3.5
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.8
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.9
3.4
3.6
3.6
2.8
2.7
2.7
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.7
3.0
1968...
1969...
3.4
3.7
3.5
1970...
1971...
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.0
50.
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.8
NUMBER OF JOB VACANCIES IN MANUFACTURING ©3
(THOUS.)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
*
...
*
...
...
...
1970...
1971...
186
170
165
293
290
240
256
312
288
242
209
185
158
151
123
126
137
118
93
76
77
ng with 1948.
last shown here this series has been revised beginn: ng with 1967.
174
274
285
212
263
144
127
82
132
(DECEMBER 1971)
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series* Datcr are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
85.
1947...
1948...
1949*...
3.18
-3.23
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
PERCENT CHANGE IN TOTAL U.S. MONEY SUPPLY ( D E M A N D DEPOSITS PLUS C U R R E N C Y )
(ANNUAL RATEt PERCENT)
II Q
III Q
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
2.19
-2.12
0.00
6.56
-6.36
0.00
8.70
-3.20
1.08
6.48
-2.14
4.30
-1.07
1.07
2.14
4.28
1.07
4.26
-1.07
-1.06
-1.07
0.00
4.25
-3.21
1.08
-2.12
-3.22
2.16
-1.77
-1.08
6.49
-2.14
0.36
3*.20
0.71
-1.44
o!36
-2.50
1.08
-1.42
-0.27
3.24
5. 16
3.91
-0.94
1.86
6.46
4.11
4.87
0.94
0.93
4.28
5.12
1.94
5.65
0.93
7.47
2.04
2.91
2.81
-5.57
5.30
4.07
3.87
1.87
10.26
4.22
4.06
4.82
0.00
1.85
5.26
5.06
2.88
0.93
3.70
4.19
5.04
3.83
0.93
3.68
2.09
8.03
6.68
-0.93
1.84
5.21
5.98
2.85
0.93
5.50
2.07
9.92
3.79
0.00
5.48
3.11
6.89
2.83
0.93
1.82
4.66
4.80
3.57
1.88
1.24
5.66
3.39
3.87
1.56
2.18
3.85
6.04
4.46
0.31
3.07
3.46
7.60
3.16
0.62
4.27
4.41
5.46
3.76
1.09
2.69
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
6.35
2.66
0.00
-3.53
5.95
8.12
0.00
-0.88
6.20
3.39
-2.69
1.77
0.88
2.64
5.06
2.69
2.65
0.00
4.40
2.52
6.27
-1.76
0.88
4.38
4.19
-1.78
1.77
-0.88
7.85
1.67
3.57
0.00
0.88
0.00
6.68
o.oo
-2.65
0*88
6.07
-4.15
1.78
4.42
-2.63
3.45
-2.50
1.78
0.88
-2.63
5.16
-2.50
-2.66
2.64
-1.76
6.85
-1.67
2.67
2.64
-3.52
1.70
-5.86
3.93
1.48
0.00
1.77
4.80
2.39
0.89
0.00
5.54
2.79
1.78
0.59
-0.29
3.17
0.01
0.60
2.05
-2.64
4.57
-3.34
2.18
1.25
-0.73
3.76
1.06
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
-1.68
1.69
1.64
5.67
3.91
-4.21
4.23
1.64
3.23
3.11
-2.54
3.37
3.28
3.22
3.88
-0.85
3.36
2.45
3.21
1.55
-4.24
2.51
0.00
4.80
5.41
-0.85
2.51
0.00
3.98
3.85
2.55
0.83
-1.63
4.77
8.44
4,25
3.34
-0«82
1.58
6.86
0.85
2.49
-0.82
1.58
5.30
0.00
4.15
4.09
6.31
4.53
-1.69
4.96
3.26
7.85
4.51
0.85
2.47
4.07
-2.34
1.50
-2.81
3.10
2.19
4.04
3.63
-1.98
2.79
0.82
4.00
3.60
2.55
2.22
-1.09
2.64
6.87
-0.28
3.86
3.81
3.94
3.51
-0.63
2.99
1.43
3.66
4.40
1965...
1966...
1967.-.*
1968...
1969...
2.99
8.57
-2.10
5.24
6*08
2.24
3.55
12.60
6.53
6.65
3.72
5.66
11.09
6.49
4.81
2.23
8.45
-4.81
4.52
4.19
-1.40
11.72
12.22
2.39
1.40
10.24
10.19
4.77
-4.89
9.48
8.21
4.15
0.70
7.39
6,90
-2.96
7.31
5.61
7.34
5.61
1.78
8.72
-3.49
5.31
5.58
2.96
3.61
-1.40
4.62
10.50
1.77
7.91
3.50
4.61
8.57
1.18
2.98
5.93
7.20
6.09
5.85
3.46
2.82
5.72
8.98
3.78
5.13
0.47
8.07
6.91
0.99
6.75
-0.46
4.85
8.22
1.97
4.58
2.19
6.46
7.55
3.15
1970...
1971...
10.60
-4.67
11.72
9.29
4.03
2.30
5.16
7.42
6.81
1.69
2.82
6.74
5.88
5.21
6.46
3.75
5.33
102. PERCENT CHANGE IN MONEY SUPPLY PLUS T I M E DEPOSITS AT COMM. B A N K S ( M 2 )
( A N N U A L R A T E t PERCENT)
AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D
1947...
1948...
1949...
3! 23
-1.63
o.oo
o.oo
5.87
-4.84
0.00
7.51
-2.43
1.63
5.80
-1.62
2.44
4.12
0.00
-0.81
1.64
1.62
-0.81
6.57
1.62
-1.63
5.71
-0.81
-0.81
1.62
-0.81
0.00
4.87
-1.62
0.81
0.00
-2.44
1.63
-0.54
-0.54
5.81
-1.35
1.09
4.64
0.81
-1.08
2.16
-1.62
0.81
-0.68
0.07
L950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
2.44
3.92
4.47
1.42
3.46
6.49
2.35
5.94
2.13
3.45
3.23
3,90
2.96
6.39
3.44
6.44
2.33
3.69
3.53
-0.69
5.60
3.88
4.41
3.52
10.30
3.19
3.87
5.13
1.40
3.41
3.18
6.17
3.65
2.81
6.11
2.38
5.37
5.09
2.80
6.08
0.79
8.41
7.24
1.40
2.02
3.16
5.31
3.60
3.49
5.37
2.37
9.07
5.74
2.09
4.68
3.15
6.75
3.57
2.78
2.00
4.05
3.39
4.46
3.31
3.45
5.08
3.36
4.41
2.82
4.34
2.12
6.65
5.33
2.34
4.74
2.89
7.04
4.30
2.79
4.02
3.54
5.11
4.62
2.81
4.14
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
5.98
1.30
4.45
-1.24
7.55
7.27
0.00
2.53
14.29
2.31
-1.31
2.59
4.42
9.83
4.61
3.29
3.23
1.89
9.14
3.44
4.59
-0.64
3.77
7.86
3.44
0.00
3.22
1.25
10.81
3.43
3.27
1.29
3,76
4.76
5.12
o.oo
o.oo
3.12
7.71
-2.27
3.26
5.14
0.62
3.53
-1.14
1.95
1.28
1.24
4.11
-1.71
-0.65
3.19
1.24
6.44
-1.14
2.60
2.55
0.00
2.33
-3.42
3.98
1.30
3.80
7.63
4.82
2.63
1.94
2.30
9.27
3.44
2.18
2.14
2.50
5.33
0.57
1.30
2.34
0.83
4.29
-2.09
2.52
1.93
2.36
6.63
1.68
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
-2.29
5.03
8.40
9.27
7.67
-4.58
10.02
10.94
8.23
5.60
-1.15
5.52
10.33
7.21
5.58
1.15
6.05
7.68
8.13
3.70
-2.30
7.11
3.56
7.12
7.38
2.30
6.52
5.58
7.55
6.88
6.32
5.95
4.54
8.44
8.20
8.58
6*46
4.02
6.99
7.70
5.11
5.89
5.01
6.48
8.55
4.52
6.92
8.99
9.21
7.15
3.38
6.88
7.93
11.43
8.44
5.05
4.21
10.34
3.62
7.05
-2.67
6.86
9.89
8.24
6.28
0.38
6.56
5.61
7.60
5.99
6.67
6.10
4.52
7.30
8.15
4.32
6.00
9.09
8.09
7.55
2.17
6.38
7.28
7.81
6.99
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
8.33
9.58
7.77
4.72
4.70
8.51
8.45
7.97
11.99
9.41
8.40
4.98
11.60
8.01
-1.55
9.69
10*28
-5.58
9.61
9.53
0.93
8.12
9.13
1.56
6.67
12.95
1.87
10.56
5.76
6.28
10.57
0.62
8.56
7.07
10.11
7.82
6.00
5.98
6.17
11.21
7.89
3.95
8.95
4.66
10.30
9.27
-2.07
10.65
2.94
7.02
10.88
1.35
8.53
5.21
9.66
8.97
2.31
5.75
10.85
11.65
10.65
8.21
6.70
11.30
3.72
7.84
11.05
8.74
7.84
1970...
1971...
3.36
6.60
7.62
8*63
5.99
8.23
4.39
6.13
4.38
14.09
9.14
2.49
5.27
-3.40
9.29
10.76
7.01
10,42
103. PERCENT CHANGE IN MONEY SUPPLY PLUS TIME DEPOSITS AT BANKS ( M 2 ) AND NON-BANK INST . ( M 3 )
(ANNUAL RATE. PERCENT)
AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D
;•;
:::
...
...
**:
...
1964...
•••
•••
:::
7.64
6.68
6.04
8.72
8.06
9.49
9.12
9.34
8.11
8.92
7.71
7.61
9.32
8.25
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
8.51
8.10
6.73
6.13
7.13
9.30
5.71
11.90
7.68
6.04
7.27
5.68
10.31
7.40
4,77
5.84
7.45
7.79
5.80
4.13
5.53
3.83
13.06
8.21
3.09
8.53
2.80
12.20
7.49
4.31
7.93
2.29
11.37
7.23
-0,20
7.88
3.30
9.85
8.71
-3.27
9.71
6.07
9.08
8.43
1.64
10.70
2.26
8.08
8.59
1.64
8.75
2.51
6.65
10.87
2.05
9.74
6.01
6.39
9.29
1.43
8.36
6,50
9.65
7.07
5.98
6.63
4.69
11.02
7.17
3.84
8.51
3.89
10.10
8.12
-0.61
9.73
3.59
7.04
9.58
1.71
8.31
4.67
9.45
7.99
2.73
1970...
1971...
3.06
-2.44
7.54
9.32
6.83
6.00
10.54
10.84
9.96
9.11
7.88
11.46
2.72
7.38
10,45
9.48
7.51
Note:
Since last
104
(DECEMBER 1971)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Aug.
July
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1947...
1948...
1949...
9 583
0 883
0 949
9 852
10 866
11 099
9 769
11 021
11 191
9 947
11 210
11 290
10 061
10 906
11 223
10 146
11 173
11 217
10 176
11 257
10 993
III Q
IV Q
Annual
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
10 141
11 331
11 106
10 462
11 230
11 263
10 609
11 240
11 160
10 792
11 159
11 221
10 842
11 404
11 052
29 204
32 770
33 239
30 154
33 289
33 730
30 779
33 818
33 362
32 243
33 803
33 433
122 380
133 680
133 764
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1
3
3
4
13
339
885
030
352
712
11
13
13
14
14
589
716
274
325
055
11
13
12
14
14
674
021
890
418
020
11
12
13
14
13
716
735
208
218
991
11
12
13
14
13
916
840
708
167
957
12
12
13
14
14
345
792
885
146
272
13
12
13
14
13
300
651
512
090
991
13
12
13
14
13
349
936
212
017
996
12
12
13
14
14
694
855
430
007
073
12
13
14
14
14
358
094
047
060
081
12
13
13
13
14
069
099
891
855
406
12
12
14
13
14
959
924
266
719
671
34
40
39
3
1
602
622
194
095
787
35
38
40
42
42
977
367
801
531
220
39
38
40
42
42
343
442
154
114
060
37
39
42
41
43
386
117
204
634
158
147
156
162
169
169
308
548
353
374
225
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
14
15
16
16
17
765
495
329
659
583
14
15
16
16
17
896
370
635
374
712
15
15
16
16
17
005
663
453
319
860
15
15
16
16
17
255
516
493
535
871
15
15
16
16
18
260
771
534
517
Oil
15
15
16
16
18
126
797
820
476
175
15
15
16
16
18
404
744
799
746
169
15
15
16
16
18
418
826
967
853
285
15
15
16
16
18
677
906
841
745
046
15
15
16
16
18
715
933
782
662
178
15
16
16
17
17
652
106
699
048
699
15
16
16
17
17
531
193
647
605
617
4 666
6 528
9 417
9 352
53 155
45
47
49
49
54
641
084
847
528
057
46
47
50
50
54
499
476
607
344
500
46
48
50
51
53
898
232
128
315
494
183
189
199
200
215
704
320
999
539
206
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
18
17
19
20
21
092
953
009
301
046
18
17
19
20
21
159
889
Oil
148
143
18
18
19
20
21
139
078
331
309
296
18
17
19
20
21
615
758
436
397
472
18
18
19
20
21
337
025
568
268
762
18
18
19
20
21
312
159
317
419
779
18
18
19
20
21
128
145
623
656
887
18
18
19
20
22
190
345
745
630
195
18
18
19
20
22
173
377
804
579
404
18
18
20
20
21
333
708
115
937
538
18
18
20
20
21
071
840
220
701
740
17
18
20
21
22
939
847
216
156
751
54
53
57
60
63
390
920
351
758
485
55
53
58
61
65
264
942
321
084
013
54
54
59
61
66
491
867
172
865
486
54
56
60
62
66
343
395
551
794
029
218
219
235
246
261
488
124
395
501
013
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
22
24
25
27
29
918
919
828
123
384
23
24
25
27
29
063
993
478
487
616
22
25
25
28
29
834
430
758
096
321
23
25
25
27
29
026
084
940
845
683
23
24
25
28
29
383
653
966
209
717
23
25
26
28
29
243
222
488
326
657
23
25
26
28
29
622
328
325
843
552
23
25
26
28
29
697
615
298
924
841
23
25
26
28
30
760
667
899
934
058
24
25
26
29
30
373
557
129
129
262
24
25
26
29
30
667
566
396
259
197
24
25
26
28
30
755
384
545
931
268
68
75
77
82
88
815
342
064
706
321
69
74
78
84
89
652
959
394
380
057
71
76
79
86
89
079
610
522
701
451
73
76
79
87
90
795
507
070
319
727
283
303
314
341
357
341
418
050
106
556
1970...
1971...
30 334
30 669
30 695
31 005
56
34 131
34 737
31 198
31 293
31 601
31 710
34 353
35 053
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
45
43
47
45
242
279
760
968
44
43
48
46
583
664
392
435
43
43
48
46
983
296
987
183
43
43
48
46
250
767
935
640
36
43
44
48
45
686
566
228
904
866
38
43
44
48
46
462
172
346
398
349
42
42
43
49
46
054
082
452
372
180
43
42
44
48
45
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
49
53
56
53
57
320
110
568
701
701
49
52
57
52
58
828
874
006
836
714
50
53
56
52
59
744
235
597
305
341
51
53
55
52
60
334
660
770
333
529
51
53
55
52
61
467
768
651
754
377
51
54
56
53
61
645
124
119
593
333
51
51
56
54
61
885
804
133
071
013
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
61
58
64
66
806
612
291
372
61
58
64
67
555
883
287
542
61
59
65
67
075
825
155
637
61
59
65
68
72
660
397
220
208
590
60
60
65
68
827
166
155
176
60
61
64
68
672
113
736
790
60
60
65
70
468
553
040
032
59
62
65
69
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
77
85
88
93
99
244
558
743
212
937
77 195
78 876
88 059
93 718
100 999
88 649
94 793
101 662
79
86
88
94
102
190
665
776
845
172
79
86
88
96
102
132
177
996
135
777
79
87
90
97
103
435
575
004
166
213
105 870
105 657
104 807
107 389
1970... 104 904
1971...
34 890
34 189
31 621
31 282
31 761
91 698
93 496
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1948...
1949...
34 380
34 489
31 951
34 702
33 521
106 758
35 398
33 648
35 881
33 065
95 262
94 664
375 120
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
36 053
33 623
36 012
34 189
35 864
32 915
35 571
33 275
35 662
32 934
102 864
104 279
104 990
101 358
107 946
100 877
107 097
99 124
422 897
405 638
024
703
721
828
842
40
43
47
47
46
665
193
139
540
Oil
39
43
46
46
47
880
140
853
333
465
43
42
47
45
48
028
733
496
602
603
102
133
130
145
138
989
808
239
139
586
110
129
132
146
138
622
988
341
237
855
126
127
133
145
137
283
592
461
385
820
123
129
141
139
142
573
066
488
475
079
463
520
537
576
557
467
454
529
236
340
51 784
52 907
56 682
54 802
59 013
55 801
55 020
58 895
52
55
55
55
58
842
209
513
631
789
53
55
54
56
58
248
613
946
645
466
53
56
53
57
60
391
255
837
077
434
149
159
170
158
175
892
219
171
842
756
154
161
167
158
183
446
552
540
680
239
156
159
168
163
178
576
938
616
893
921
159
167
164
169
177
481
077
296
353
689
620
647
670
650
715
395
786
623
768
605
205
807
288
185
798
41
42
45
47
45
927
026
614
240
60
62
65
69
374
336
885
699
60
63
66
70
73
185
134
264
565
803
59
63
67
69
74
415
709
147
792
666
59
64
66
71
77
626
022
059
162
045
184
177
193
201
215
436
320
733
551
038
183
180
195
205
219
159
676
111
174
102
180
184
196
208
223
769
915
539
971
253
179
190
199
211
225
226
865
470
519
514
727
733
784
827
882
590
776
853
215
907
80 869
86 688
89 492
81 143
87 631
90 529
103 034
104 285
80
88
90
98
105
347
263
763
967
123
81
88
89
99
105
827
199
162
633
729
83
87
91
100
104
301
594
091
354
870
83
87
92
99
104
951
988
764
378
379
233
258
265
281
302
315
582
451
723
598
237
260
267
288
308
757
417
776
146
162
242
262
270
294
312
359
582
784
026
442
249
263
273
299
314
079
781
017
365
978
962
1045
1077
1163
1238
510
362
028
260
180
107 626
108 052
107 738
105 610
104 485
106 943
316 431
851. RATIOi INVENTORIES TO SALESi MANUFACTURING AND TRADE TOTAL
(RATIO)
318 954
323 416
317 038
1275 839
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1948...
1949...
1.38
1.52
1.41
1.54
1.42
1.54
1.41
1.53
1.42
1.55
1.42
1.53
1.42
1.54
1.43
1.51
1.44
1.49
1.46
1.54
1.48
1.51
1.47
1.50
1.40
1.53
1.42
1.54
1.43
1.51
1.47
1.52
1.43
1.52
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1.48
1.38
1.63
1.55
1.65
1.44
1.43
1.62
1.53
1.62
1.43
1.48
1.63
1.52
1.63
.42
.54
.61
.54
.60
1.39
1.56
1.58
1.55
1.62
1.34
1.59
1.58
1.57
1.60
1.22
1.64
1.61
1.56
1.60
1.23
1.62
1.58
1.60
1.60
1.33
1.63
1.55
1.62
1.60
1.39
1.62
1.52
1.62
1.58
1.46
1.62
1.54
1.65
1.54
1.39
1.64
1.52
1.67
1.51
1.45
1.43
1.63
1.53
1.63
1.38
1.56
1.59
1.55
1.61
1.26
1.63
1.58
1.59
1.60
1.41
1.63
1.53
1.65
1.54
1.38
1.56
1.58
1.58
1.60
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1.49
1.51
1.55
1.65
1.51
1.48
1.54
1.54
1.67
1.49
1.47
1.54
1.56
1.68
1.48
.45
.54
1.59
1.66
1.47
1.46
1.55
1.59
1.64
1.46
1.47
1.55
1.58
1.61
1.48
1.47
1.63
1.58
1.59
1.49
1*49
1.58
1.58
1.56
1.54
1.46
1.57
1.61
1.56
1.54
1.48
1.56
1.61
1.55
1.54
1.48
1.56
1.62
1.52
1.55
1.49
1.55
1.65
1.52
1.52
1.48
1.53
1.55
1.67
1.49
1.46
1.55
1.59
1.64
1.47
1.47
1.59
1.59
1.57
1.52
1.48
1.56
1.63
1.53
1.54
1.47
1.56
1.59
1.60
1.51
1960. ..
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1.50
1.61
1.50
1.52
1.47
1.52
1.60
1.51
1.50
1.48
1.55
1.57
1.50
1.50
1.49
1.54
1.58
1.50
1.49
1.48
1.57
1.56
1.51
1.50
1.47
1.57
1.53
1.53
1.49
1.48
1.58
1.55
1.53
1.47
1.46
1.59
1.52
1.52
1.50
1.47
1.58
1.52
1.52
1.50
1.46
1.59
1.50
1.52
1.49
1.49
1.61
1.50
1.50
.51
.48
1.59
1.49
1.53
1.48
1.45
1.52
1.59
.50
.51
.48
1.56
1.56
1.51
1.49
1.48
1.58
1.53
1.52
1.49
1.46
1.60
1.50
1.52
1.49
1.47
1.57
1.54
1.51
1.50
1.47
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1.45
1.42
1.56
1.56
1.56
1.46
1.44
1.57
1.56
1.56
1.45
1.42
1.57
1.55
1.56
1.45
1.45
1.58
1.56
1.56
1.46
1.47
1.58
1.56
1.56
1.46
1.47
1.56
1.55
1.56
1.45
1.50
1.58
1.53
1.57
1.46
1.50
1.57
1.57
1.56
1.48
1.50
1.57
1.54
1.56
1.46
1.52
1.60
1.54
1.56
.44
.54
.58
.54
.58
1.44
1.55
1.56
1.56
1.59
.45
.43
.57
.56
.56
1.46
1.46
1.57
1.56
1.56
1.46
1.50
1.57
1.55
1.56
1.45
1.54
1.58
1.55
1.58
1.46
1.48
1.57
1.55
1.57
1970...
1971...
1.59
1.58
1.59
1.61
1.58
1.58
1.59
1.59
1.60
1.63
1.66
1.62
1.59
1.59
1.59
1.64
1.60
{DECEMBER I97i)
105
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been sea-
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time.
See the
sonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
for each series.
and may be used to update the tables below.
Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
71.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
III Q
II Q
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES* TOTAL BOOK VALUE
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
Annual
IV Q
END OF PERIOD
1948...
1949...
47.52
53.30
48.24
53.33
48.83
53.06
49.20
52.41
49.36
51.87
50.11
51.42
51.06
51.05
51.49
50.81
51.92
50.89
52.34
50.56
52.58
50.10
52.51
49.50
48.83
53.06
50.11
51.42
51.92
50.89
52.51
49.50
52.51
49.50
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
49.66
62.26
70.72
49.63
63.74
70.63
74.19
75.44
50.07
65.27
70.62
74.64
75.12
50.37
66.65
70.43
75.37
74.74
51.06
67.87
70.05
75.69
74.42
51.67
68.65
70.23
76.17
74.04
51.40
69.10
69.99
76.96
73.70
53.23
69.53
69.91
77.19
73.24
54.71
69.53
70.80
77.41
73.17
56.38
69.77
71.58
76.99
72.85
58.37
69.98
72.06
76.40
73.20
59.82
70.24
72.38
76.12
73.18
50.07
65.27
70.62
74.64
75.12
51.67
68.65
70.23
76.17
74.04
54.71
69.53
70.80
77.41
73.17
59.82
70.24
72.38
76.12
73.18
59.82
70.24
72.38
76.12
73.18
73.82
81.33
88.05
88.07
87.52
74.45
81.75
88.21
87.62
87.94
74.52
82.84
88.52
86.92
89.16
75.02
83.51
88.51
86.35
89.69
75.69
84.04
88.58
86.09
90.51
76.24
84.52
88.83
85.79
91.12
76.98
84.96
89.42
85.56
91.08
77.39
85.63
89.88
85.91
90.65
78.33
86.05
89.16
86.10
90.80
78.91
86.94
88.99
86.28
90.70
79.52
87.30
89.05
86.92
91.89
74.45
81.75
88.21
87.62
87.94
75.69
84.04
88.58
86.09
90.51
77.39
85.63
89.88
85.91
90.65
79.52
87.30
89.05
86.92
91.89
79.52
87.30
89.05
86.92
91.89
94.64
93.69
97.47
101.77
106.72
94.70
93.69
97.60
101.87
107.27
95.26
93.79
98.34
102.27
107.64
95.46
93.68
98.85
102.75
108.07
95.79
93.86
99.20
103.17
108.24
95.48
94.30
99.67
103.65
108.65
95.67
94.74
100.39
104.22
109.75
95.54
94.85
100.84
104.94
109.72
95.66
95.49
100.92
105.40
110.52
94.75
95.65
101.09
105.48
111.46
94.64
93.69
97.47
101.77
106.72
95.46
93.68
98.85
102.75
108.07
95.67
94.74
100.39
104.22
109.75
94.75
95.65
101.09
105.48
111.46
94.75
95.65
101.09
105.48
111.46
74.01
75.73
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
73.55
80.27
87.85
88.66
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
92.78
94.33
101.22
105.95
93.86
94.16
96.81
101.52
106.30
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
112.33
121.63
138.02
145.76
155.98
112.83
123.03
138.67
146.46
157.10
114.11
124.24
139.29
146.92
158.15
114.76
125.32
139.95
148.17
159.03
115.43
126.84
140.17
149.49
159.99
116.22
128.57
140.40
150.26
160.85
117.21
129.74
140.95
150.70
161.75
118.27
131.19
141.92
151.71
162.52
118.59
132.24
142.19
152.44
163.65
119.09
133.79
142.50
153.68
164.86
119.84
135.23
143.68
154.39
165.45
120.90
136.71
145.07
155.24
166.41
114.11
124.24
139.29
146.92
158.15
116.22
128.57
140.40
150.26
160.85
118.59
132.24
142.19
152.44
163.65
120.90
136.71
145.07
155.24
166.41
120.90
136.71
145.07
155.24
166.41
1970...
1971...
166.69
167.69
168.02
169.16
169.01
169.93
171.12
171.68
172.24
172.59
173.37
173.64
168.02
169.93
172.24
173.64
173.64
3.0
-0.9
2.3
5.2
-6.6
7.2
-2.1
2.4
-5.6
-slo
87.12
96.21
31 .
1948...
1949...
CHANGE IN BOOK VALUE OF MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES* TOTAL
(ANNUAL RATEi BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
2.0
9.0
11.4
5.1
5.2
8.6
0.3
7.1
9.6
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1.9
29.2
5.7
19.6
-0.3
17.8
-1.1
2.2
5.3
18.4
-0.2
5.4
3.6
16.6
-2.2
8.7
8.3
14.5
-4.5
3.9
7.3
9.4
2.2
5.7
-3.2
5.4
-3.0
9.5
21.9
5.2
-1.0
2.8
17.8
0.1
10.8
2.6
20.0
2.8
9.3
-5.0
24.0
2.5
5.8
-7.1
4.2
17.4
3.2
3.7
-3.4
-0.3
2.3
21.8
1.5
9.1
-4.0
6.4
13.5
-1.5
6.1
-4.3
12.2
3.6
2.3
5.0
-3.5
20.5
2.8
6.3
-5.2
(Z)
10.3
10.4
2.1
3.7
-3.0
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
4.5
9.1
6.6
3.2
12.7
2.4
7.6
5.1
1.9
0.8
13.1
3.7
6.0
8.0
-0.1
8.0
6.4
0.9
6.6
5.7
3.0
8.9
5.4
7.0
2.4
4.7
5.1
14.6
6.4
9.9
7.2
-0.5
5.0
8.0
5.6
4.2
-5.2
11.3
5.0
-8.6
2.3
1.8
7.0
10.7
-2.1
2.1
-1.2
7.3
4.4
0.8
7.7
14.3
5.1
9.0
3.6
-5.7
4.1
4.9
9.2
1.5
-6.1
10.3
6.8
6.4
5.2
-0.8
0.5
8.5
6.7
-3.3
4.0
5.0
6.4
7.8
1.8
-2.1
5.0
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
10.6
-5.0
6.8
1.5
5.7
13.0
-2.0
7.1
3.6
4.2
9.4
-5.7
8.0
3.0
4.9
0.7
0.0
1.5
1.2
6.6
6.8
1.1
8.9
4.8
4.4
2.4
-1.3
6.1
5.7
5.2
4.0
2.2
4.3
5.1
2.0
-3.8
2.2
-1.5
1.4
-10.9
11.0
3.3
0.8
-3.7
5.6
5.7
4.9
8.7
6.9
13.3
5.4
8.6
-0.4
0.9
5.5
9.6
2.0
0.9
11.3
7.3
2.7
4.9
5.5
3.9
5.4
6.2
5.9
6.7
2.8
5.0
6.8
2.9
0.9
5.4
4.4
6.0
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
10.5
8.8
15.7
8.3
8.9
6.0
16.7
7.9
8.4
13.4
15.4
14.6
7.4
5.5
12.7
7.8
12.9
8.0
15.0
10.5
8.1
18.3
2.6
15.8
11.6
9.5
20.8
11.8
14.0
12.7
17.4
3.9
12.5
6.0
18.6
9.1
17.3
9.3
10.3
5.2
10.8
12.1
9.3
8.8
13.5
14.9
14.5
8.6
7.1
12.7
17.8
16.7
10.1
11.6
10.6
13.4
10.3
7.4
11.7
8.5
17.3
4.4
13.4
10.8
9.5
14.6
7.2
8.7
11.2
9.3
17.9
11.5
11.2
11.1
9.5
15.8
8.4
10.2
11.2
1970...
1971...
3.3
12.0
4.0
13.7
-1.8
11.0
4.5
.sed beginning with 1948.
106
5.0
(DECEMBER I97i)
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854
to
1970
Duration in months
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
.October 1860
.April 1865
June 1869
.October 1873
".March 1882
May 1885
April 1888
May.1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
(x)
(x)
18
8
32
1§
65
30
22
46
18
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
.September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
.May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
• August 1918
January 1920
• May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
• August 1929
.May 1937
February 1945
.November 1948 . . .
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
^8
41
34
93
93
t5
56
August 1954 . . .
April 1958
February 1961
^November 1970
July 1957
May 1960
^November 1969
13
~
35
25
105
48
34
114
9
12
IxT
58
44
34
117
Average, all cycles:
27 cycles, 1854-1970 .
11 cycles 1919-1970
5 cycles, 1945-1970..
19
15
11
33
42
49
52
56
60
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles 1854-1961 .
8 cycles, 1919-1961 . .
3 cycles, 1945-1961'..
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
TxT
I
52
60
59
2
3
*46
48
42
5
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korean War, and Vietnam War), the postwar
contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
^Tentative and subject to revision as more information becomes available.
Recycles,
1857-1969.
2
10 cycles, 1920-1969.
3
5 cycles,
4
1945-1969.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
6
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
107
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Cyclical Indicators
Specific dates are listed under the reference cycle dates to which they correspond. Numbers in parentheses indicate leads (-)
lags (+) of specific dates in relation to reference dates
Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning in-Series
November 1970
February 1961
April 1958
August 1954
October 1949
LEADING INDICATORS
Sep.
Oct.
Dec.
Oct.
Oct.
Jan.
May
Jan.
June
IVQ
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'71
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
(-2)
(-1)
(+l)
(-1)
(-1)
(-10)
(-6)
(+2)
(-5)
(0)
(+1)
(0)
(-1)
Dec.
Feb.
Jan.
Jan.
May
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
IQ
Feb.
Apr.
Dec.
'60
'61
'61
'61
'61
'60
'60
'60
'60
'61
'61
'61
'60
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(-1)
(+3)
(-2)
(-2)
(-2)
(-4)
(0)
(0)
(+2)
(-2)
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
IQ
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'57
'58
'58
'58
'58
(0)
(0)
(0)
(-3)
(-1)
(-2)
(0)
(0)
(-4)
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(-2)
Apr.
Sep.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Sep.
Nov.
Oct.
Sep.
IVQ
Mar.
Mar.
Nov.
'54
'54
'54
'54
«54
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'54
'54
'53
(-4)
(+1)
(-5)
(-5)
(-5)
(-11)
(-9)
(-10)
(-11)
(-9)
(-5)
(-5)
(-9)
Apr.
Oct.
July
June
Apr.
Jan.
Apr.
June
June
IIQ
May
Jan.
May
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
(-6)
(0)
(-3)
(-4)
(-6)
(-9)
(-6)
(-4)
(-4)
(-5)
(-5)
(-9)
(-5)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
200. GNP in current dollars (Q)
205. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
47. Industrial production
52. Personal income
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
54. Sales of retail stores
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators
Nov.
Dec.
NSC
IVQ
Nov.
NSC
Nov.
NSC
Nov.
'70
'70
(0)
(+1)
'70
'70
(0)
(0)
'61
(0)
'61 (+3)
'60 (-3)
'61
(0)
'61
(0)
'70
(0)
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
(+l)
(+3)
(-2)
(-2)
(0)
(-2)
(-1)
(-1)
(0)
Aug.
Sep.
IIQ
IIQ
Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.
Aug.
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
(0)
(+1)
(-3)
(-3)
(-4)
(-4)
(0)
(-7)
(0)
Oct.
Oct.
IVQ
IIQ
Oct.
July
Oct.
NSC
Oct.
(0)
(0)
(+1)
(-5)
(0)
(-3)
(0)
(0)
May
July
IQ
IQ
Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.
Apr.
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'70
Feb.
May
IVQ
IQ
Feb.
NSC
Jan.
Apr.
Feb.
'49
(0)
LAGGING INDICATORS
44 Unemploy rate 15 weeks and over (inverted)........
61. Business expend, new plant and equip. (Q)
71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories. . . „ . < >
62. Labor cost per unit of output mfg.
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans (Q)
830. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
NSC
NSC
NSC
NSC
Jan.
NA
May
Aug.
IIIQ
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.IIQ
Aug.
'58 (+4)
'58 (+4)
'58 (+4)
'59 (+12)
'58 (+4)
'58 (+1)
'58 (+4)
Oct.
IVQ
Oct.
June
Oct.
IQ
Oct.
'54
'54
'54
'55
'54
'55
'54
(+2)
(+3)
(+2)
(+10)
(+2)
(+6)
(+2)
Nov.
IVQ
Dec.
July
Aug.
IQ
Dec.
'49 (+1)
'49 (+1)
'49 (+2)
'50 (+9)
'49 (-2)
'50 (+4)
'49
(+2)
5.
12c
6.
10.
29.
31.
23.
19.
16.
17.
113.
810.
Avg. wkly. initial claims, State unemploy. insur. (inv.j.
Index of net business formation
New orders durable goods industries
Contracts and orders plant and equipment
New building permits, private housing
Change, mfg. and trade inventories
Industrial materials prices
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Corporate profits, after taxes (Q)
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Change in consumer installment debt
Composite index of 12 leading indicators
'71
(+2)
'71 (+6)
July
IQ
June
NSC
NSC
IVQ
July
'61
'61
'61
(-1)
(+2)
(0)
'61 (+5)
'61
(0)
'61 (+4)
'61 (+9)
'61 (+5)
Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning in~
Series
November 1969
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek prod workers mfg
. . . . . Oct.
«
5. Avg. wkly. initial claims, State unemploy. insur. (inv.). Jan.
Feb.
12. Index of net business formation
Sep.
6. New orders durable goods industries
Jan.
10. Contracts and orders plant and equipment
Jan.
29. New building permits, private housing
Oct.
31. Change, mfg. and trade inventories
Feb.
23. Industrial materials prices
Dec.
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
IVQ
16. Corporate profits, after taxes (Q)
Feb.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Oct.
113. Change in consumer installment debt
Sep.
810. Composite index of 12 leading indicators
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Mar.
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Feb.
43. Unemployment rate total (inverted) *
NSC
200. GNP in current dollars (Q)
III
205. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
Sep.
47. Industrial production
52. Personal income
NSC
Aug.
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
NSC
54. Sales of retail stores
Dec.
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators
LAGGING INDICATORS
44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over (inverted)
61. Business expend., new plant and equip. (Q)
71. B^ok value, mfg. and trade inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans (Q)
830. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
July 1957
May 1960
July 1953
November 1948
(-13)
(-10)
(-9)
(-2)
(+2)
(-10)
(-1)
(+3)
(-11)
(-12.)
(-9)
(-13)
(-2)
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Sep.
Nov.
Dec.
Nov.
July
IIQ
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'60
(-13)
(-13)
(-13)
(-13)
(-8)
(-18)
(-5)
(-6)
(-10)
(-12)
(-13)
(-9)
(-4)
Nov.
Sep.
Mar.
Aug.
Nov.
Feb.
Apr.
Dec.
July
IVQ
Feb.
Mar.
Nov.
'55 (-20)
'55 (-22)
'55 (-28)
'56 (-11)
'56 (-8)
'55 (-29)
'56 (-15)
'55 (-19)
'56 (-12)
'55 (-20)
'57 (-5)
'55 (-28)
'56 (-8)
Mar.
Nov.
Sep.
Jan.
Sep.
Nov.
Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
IIQ
Jan.
Dec.
Jan.
'53
'52
'52
'53
'52
'52
'53
'51
'53
'53
'51
'52
'53
'70 (+4)
'69 (-9)
'60
'60
'60
'60
'60
(-1)
(-3)
(0)
(-3)
(-4)
(-4)
(-1)
(-3)
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
(-4)
(-4)
(+1)
(+1)
(-5)
(+1)
(-5)
(+1)
(+1)
June
June
IIQ
IIQ
July
Oct.
July
Mar.
July
'53
(-1)
'53
(-1)
'53 (-2)
'53 (-2)
'53
(0)
'53 (+3)
'53
(0)
'53 (-4)
'53
(0)
Sep.
NA
IVQ
IVQ
July
Oct.
Aug.
NSC
Oct.
(-2)
'60
'60
'60
Mar.
Mar.
IIIQ
IIIQ
Feb.
Aug.
Feb.
Aug.
Aug.
'48
'48
'48
'48
'48
'48
(0)
(0)
(-4)
(-1)
(-3)
(+1)
Apr.
Feb.
IIQ
IQ
Jan.
NSC
Jan.
Apr.
Feb.
'48
(-1)
NSC
NSC
NSC
NSC
Sep. '70 (+10)
IQ
'70 (+3)
Aug. '70 (+9)
May
IIQ
July
Feb.
NSC
IVQ
May
'60
(0)
'60
(0)
'60
(+2)
'61 (+9)
Sep.
IIQ
Sep.
Apr.
Sep.
IVQ
Sep.
'57
(+2)
'57 (-2)
'57
(+2)
'58
(+9)
'57 (+2)
'57 (+4)
'57 (+2)
Oct.
IIIQ
Sep.
Mar.
Aug.
IVQ
Sep.
'53
'53
'53
'54
'53
'53
'53
(+3)
(+1)
(+2)
(+8)
(+1)
(+4)
(+2)
Jan.
IVQ
Feb.
Nov.
Aug.
IIQ
Nov.
'49 (+2)
'48
(0)
'49 (+3)
'48
(0)
'48 (-3)
'49 (+6)
'48
(0)
'68
'69
'69
'69
'70
'69
'69
'70
'68
'68
'69
'68
'69
'69
'69
(-3)
(-2)
'70 (+9)
'69
'59
'60
(-6)
(0)
(-4) Dec.
(-8) Jan.
(-10) NA
(-6) Aug.
(-10) June
(-8) Oct.
(-6) July
(-29)Jan.
(-6) June
(-2) IIQ
(-30)June
(-7) Mar.
(-6) June
'47 (-11)
'47 (-22)
'48 (-3)
'48
(-5)
'47 (-13)
'48 (-4)
'48 (-10)
'48 (-5)
'48 (-6)
'48 (-5)
'48 (-8)
'48 (-5)
NOTE: Specific peaks and troughs mark the dates when individual series reach their cyclical turning points, whereas reference peak and trough dates indicate the cyclical
turning points in business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 26 series on the NBER "short list" and three composite indexes, the specific peaks and troughs
corresponding to post-World War II business cycles. The determination of specific turning points is largely a subjective matter, and honest disagreement may exist among individual analysts. Therefore, the dates listed above should not be interpreted as being absolute. See Measuring Business Cycles by Burns and Mitchell (NBER: 1946)for
further information on dating specific peaks and troughs.
NA = Not available. This indicates that data necessary to determine a turning point are not available.
NSC = No specific cycle. This indicates that no specific turning point corresponding to the indicated reference date is discernible.
Q = Quarterly series. Leads and lags are measured from middle of quarter to reference date.
108
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
Arabic number in^dicates latest
* calendar month of
data plotted ("7M=
July); Roman number indicates
latest quarter for
which data are
nlotted ("ill" third quarter).
HOW TO READ CYCLICAL (RECOVERY) COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the most recent
business contraction (beginning with the cyclical peak in November 1969) and the
recovery and subsequent expansion (beginning with the business cycle trough in
November 1970).
To set the current cyclical movements into historical perspective,
cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods are shown.
The graphic
presentations of the data for the selected period are superimposed according to a
special chart design.
The explanatory statements below provide a key to this chart^
design.
........
This scale shows
deviations (percent or unit differences) from
reference peak
levels. For units
of measure see
comparison table
on the chart.
1. The objective of the chart is to compare
the pattern of the current recovery with
historical recovery patterns to facilitate
critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and vigor of the indicators' current
movements.
Series number, series title
2. The vertical line represents
reference
trough dates.
The current recovery phase, "
beginning with the business cycle trough in
November 1970, and the selected historical
recovery phases, beginning with the troughs
in October 1949, August 1954, April 1958,
and February 1961 are presented graphically
so that their trough dates are placed along
this vertical line.
3. The horizontal line represents the levely
of the data at the beginning point of the
most recent business contraction, November
1969, the business cycle peak that preceded
the most recent trough.
It also represents
data levels at other business cycle peaks
(November 1948, July 1953, July 1957, and
May I960) that precede the troughs used for
this analysis:
The peak levels, which also
are called recovery levels—i.e., the levels
at which recoveries from the preceding contraction are achieved—are aligned along the
horizontal line for each business cycle
depicted.
4. To facilitate comparison, deviations from
the previous peak level are computed and
plotted for each cycle (consisting of the
contraction and portions of the subsequent
recovery and expansion).
These deviations
from the peak levels may 1-e either percent
changes or differences in original series units
depending upon the nature of the time series.
For most series percent changes are used.
For series containing negative values (such
as percent changes) and series measured in
percent units (such as interest rates) deviations are shown in terms of differences. The
same type of series could be, and in many
instances are, plotted as actual data in
original series units rather than deviations
from preceding peak levels.
This scale shows
actual series
units (See current
data table in
chart for the unit
of measure) and
applies only to
the current business cycle (heavy
solid line).
Current data
(Index: 1967=100)
This table shows
actual data for
the most recent
peak and trough,
and for the selected time periods thereafter.
Ref.
trough
year
1949
2.8
1954
-0.8
1958
-2.8
1961 J 2.2
1970 1 1.9
Media* 0.7
JM
I I
-12
11/69
I 5/70
11/70
+6
+ 12
5/71
11/71
-1-24
11/72
Months from ref.
troughs
Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. '70
This comparison table shows deviations (percent or unit
differences) from the preceding reference peak levels or the
actual data for specified number of months or quarters after
reference trough dates. The median is determined as described
in statement 7.
Symbols it and Q mark levels of the 1949 and 1954 recoveries,
respectively, at selected time periods. (See statement 7.)
5. The influence of excessive irregular
fluctuations in series with MCD of 3 or more
is modified by using the average for the 3
months centered on the peak as the reference
peak level.
6. For series that move counter to movements
in general business activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used;
i.e., declines in the data are shown as upward movements in the plotted lines, and increases in data as downward movements in
plotted lines.
7. For each chart, four curves and two sets
of points are shown.
One curve describes
the current recovery (heavy solid line:»•••) .
To facilitate historical comparison and avoid
overcrowding on the chart, the median pattern of the four post-World War II recoveries
(those beginning in 1949, 1954, 1958, and
Designations:
^'Coincident,"
r'Leading," "Lagging," and "Unclassified" indicate the NBER
timing classification for the
series.
This scale mea^sures time in
months before and
after reference
trough dates. The
negative side indicates contractions, the positive side indicates recoveries
and expansions.
This time scale
shows calendar
months or quarters
corresponding to
the current contraction, recovery,
and expansion.
(P)= Current business cycle (reference) peak
(j) = Current business cycle (reference) trough
1961)
is shown as another curve (heavy broken line:—>—•—). The curve representing the
historical median pattern passes through the
median points of the four individual recovery
paths. (Median is defined here as the average of the two middle points). The two most
recent individual recoveries (those beginning in 1958 and 1961 are also shown as plotted lines (solid line:——, and knotted line:
t • 9 99, respectively).
The two sets of
points display the relative levels for the
remaining two recoveries (those beginning in
1949 (it) and 1954 (Q)) at four points in time
(trough date, 12 and 24 months after trough
date, and at the same time point as the latest
month plotted).
8. The business cycle peaks and troughs used
throughout the recovery comparison charts
are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research and are shown below.
The Roman numerals in parentheses indicate
the peak and trough quarters used for timing
quarterly data:
Trough
Peak
Nov. '48 (IVQ'48)
July '53 (IIIQ'53)
July '57 (IIIQ'57)
May '60 (IIQ'60)
NOV. '69 (IVQ'69)
Oct.
Aug.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
'49
'54
'58
'61
'70
(IVQ'49)
(IIIQ'54)
(IIQ'58)
(IQ'61)
(IVQ'70)
109
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
II I I I I I I I II I I I II I I I I II I
I
* '49
810. Composite index of
12 leading indicators,
°'54
reverse trend adjusted
[
I I I I "O
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
Leading |
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
Deviations
from
preced
peak
205. GNP in 1958 dollars
Actua
data
for
current
cycle
Percent
-n +16
•135
+12
•130
+8
•125
+4
•120
0
•115
1958-60
V
1970
Median
• 110
Current data
(Index: 1967=100)
12 mos after
ref. trough
Ref.
Percent
trough devi(percent)
year
23.9
194-9
21.7
1954
16.5
1958
12.1
1961
Mar. '71
Apr. '71
May '71
June '71
July '71
Aug. '71
Sep. '71
Oct. '71
Nov. '71
9.5
19.1
3 qtrs. after
ref. trough
-8
122.0
124.0
125.0
124.9
126.6
126.5
126.9
128.3
128.5
• 120
Percent
820. Composite index of
five coincident indicators
Current data
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
-4
* '
47. Industrial production
• 115
+12
•135
+8
110
• 130
+4
• 125
•105
0
•120
-4
100
•115
-8
Current data
(Index: 1967=100)
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
Mar.'71
Apr.'71
May '71
June'71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
12.9
3.2
5.0
6.2
3.4
5.6
-J -12
•110
Current data
(Index: 1967=100)
-12
12 mos. after
ref. trough
Nov.'69©110.3
Nov.'70 ©102.6
194-9
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
Mar.'71
Apr.'71
May '71
June'71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
122.0
122.6
123.5
125.6
124.0
124.0
125.2
125.2
126.0
105.5
106.2
107.0
107.2
106.1
105.3
106.2
106.2
107.0
I I I I I II
-12
-6
11/69
5/70
110
11/70
+6
+12
+18
+24 •«— Months from ref. .
troughs
5/71
11/71
5/72
11/72 •
m
Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. '70
-12
-6
11/69
5/70
0
+6
11/70
5/71
+12
11/71
+18
+24
5/72
11/72
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
I II
IT
IT
IT
ITT
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
430 Unemployment rate, total, percent,
inverted scale
(actual data plotted rather than
deviations from peak levels)
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
Actual
data
for
current
54. Sales of retail stores
cycle
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
Percent
•4
-i +12
• 33,000
+8
• 32,000
•5
•6
+4
• 31,000
•7
• 30,000
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
Nov.'70®5.9
Mar.'71 6.0
Apr.'71 6.1
May '71 6.2
June' 71 5.6
July'71 5.8
Aug.'71 6.1
Sep.'71 6.0
Oct.'71 5.8
Nov.'71 6.0
4.2
4.2
5.2
5.5
6.0
4.7
• 29,000
-4
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
O
O'54
Mar.'71
Apr.'71
May '71
June'71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
13.8
9.3
6.3
3.7
13.5
7.8
33,274
33,578
33,502
33,827
33,688
33,655
35,219
34,846
Percent
*'49
+40
190 Stock prices, 500 common stocks
781 Co Consumer price index, all items,
percent changes over 6-month spans
§130
(actual data plotted rather than
deviations from peak levels)
+30
+7
• +6
•120
+20
•110
+10
• +3
0
90
-10
, 80
Current data
(Index: 1941-43=100)
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
-20
• 70
Nov.'7oCp84.28
Mar.'71
99.60
Apr.'71 103.04
May '71 101.64
99.72
June'71
99.00
July'71
Aug.'71
97.24
99.40
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
97.29
92.78
Nov.'71
1
Dec.'71
98.04
29.7
82.5
19.5
27.3
1.9
28.5
I II
-12
-6
0
11/69
5/70
11/70
Current data
(Ann. rate,
percent)
-30
Mar.'71
Apr.'71
May '71
June'71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
II
+6
+12
5/71
11/71
+18
5/72
+24
11/72
m
1
Months from ref.
troughs
(
Dates relative
to current
'
trough Nov. '70
11/69
5/70
11/70
+6
+12
+18
+24
5/71
11/71
5/72
11/72
December estimate (•••) includes weeks
ended December 1, 8, 15, and 22.
111
The Census Bureau presents
The Statistical
Abstract of the
United States1971
e U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
sus presents the 1971 STATISTICAL
RACT OF THE UNITED STATES. This 92d
of the "Stat Abstract," as it is popularly
iffers the Nation's most sought-after facts
in the world of government and private
i Statesmen. ..businessmen., .scientists...
teacheillil students alike FIND the information
the social, economic, and governmental characteristics of the United States - both
current and historical. Statistics are presented in
over 1,300 tables and charts derived from over 200
government, private, and international agencies. A
special introductory table features RECENT
TRENDS for selected measures of social and
economic change. The GUIDE TO SOURCES lists
over 800 statistical publications on 50 major
subjects, such as population (including data from
the 1970 Census of Population and Housing),
government, health, education, agriculture, industry, construction, recreation, trade, and scores of
other subjects. Whatever your line of work, business, profession, or avocational interests - when
you need the facts, choose the comprehensive and
authoritative STATISTICAL ABSTRACT OF THE
UNITED STATES, 1971.
1032 Pages
(CLOTH) $5.50
To order The Statistical Abstract of the
United States-1971 write to:
Superintendent of Documents
U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C. 20402
INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series,* following this index)
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars... .
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
National income, current dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, current dol
Disposable personal income, constant dol
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
constant dollars
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230. Total, current dollars
231 Total constant dollars
232 Durable soods current dollars
.
..
233. Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars
234 Automobi les current dol 1 ars
236. Nondurable goods, current dollars
237. Services, current dollars.
9,21,38
9,21,38,55
5,64,70
5,64,70,85
9
9
9
5,64
5,64
5,64
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
10
10
10
10
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
10
5,64
Aug.
'71
Oct.
'69
10
5,64
'71
Oct.
'69
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Gross private domestic investment, total
Nonresidential fixed investment
Nonresidential structures
Producers' durable equipment
Residential structures
Change in business inventories
5,65,73
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
5,66
5,66
5,66
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
May '69
May '69
May '69
5,66
5,66
'71
'71
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'71
Oct.
'69
12
12
12
12
12
12,26
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
. . . 13,46
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services
252. Exports of goods and services
253 Imports of goods and services
13,48
13,48
A6. Gov. Purchases, Goods and Services
260.
262.
264.
266.
Federal, State, and local governments
Federal Government
National defense
State and local governments
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270. Final sales, durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods
274. Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories,
nondurable goods
14
14
14,52
14
5,66,83
5,66
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
15
5,66
Aug.
15
15
5,66
5,66
Aug.
Aug.
15
5,66
Aug.
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'71
Oct.
'69
*200.
*205.
*47.
*52
53.
*56.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
. .
Industrial production
Personal income
Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr
Manufacturing and trade sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
*12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
*6 New orders durable soods industries
8, Construction contracts, total value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment
Compensation of employees
16
Proprietors' income
16
Rental income of persons
16
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj . . . 16
Net interest
16
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,67
5,67
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, private and government
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
o
-f I
i-
a
^JUbimeru
17
17
5,67
5,67
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
17
17
17
5,67
5,67
5,67
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
*1.
21.
2.
*5.
3.
50
46.
48.
*41.
42.
*43.
45.
40.
*44.
Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
18,36
Avg. wkly. overtime hrs., prod, workers, mfg . .18
Accession rate, manufacturing
18
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
18,36
Layoff rate, manufacturing
18
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
Oct.
Dec.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Number of job vacancies, mfg
Help-wanted advertising
Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
Employees on nonagri. payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
Unemployment rate, total
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
6,68
6,68
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
'71
'70
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
19
19
19
19,38
19
20,38
20
20
20,39
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
Aug.
Aug.
'68
'68
June '69
Aug.
6,64,70
6,64,70,85
6,70,94
21,38
21
22,38
22
22,38
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
23,36
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug.
Aug.
Dec.
Aug.
Dec.
23,36
11.
24.
9.
28.
*29.
New capital appropriations, manufacturing. . 24
New orders, producers' cap. goods indus. . .24
Constr. contracts, com. and indus
24
Private housing starts, total
24
New bldg. permits, private housing
24,36
6,71
6,71
6,72
6,72
6,72
Sep.
Sep.
96.
97.
*61.
69.
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries . .25
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing. . 25
25,39,40
Business expend., new plant and equip
Machinery and equipment sales and
23
23,36
23
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
69
69
68
Oct.
Oct.
Nov.
July
July
68
68
Feb.
69
July
68
June '71
Apr. '71
Sep. '71
Sep.
'68
'71
Sep.
'68
Sep.
'71
'71 Sep.
July '71
June '71
Apr. '71 Apr.
'68
'69
6,72
6,72
Sep. '71
Sep. '71
Sep.
'68
7,72.78
July '71 Nov.
'68
7,72
Sep.
'71
Sep.
'68#
12,26
7,65,73
26,37
7,73
7,73
7,73
7,73
Aug.
Dec.
'71
'71
Oct.
Feb.
'69
'69
Sep.
'68
'68
'69
'68
25
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
*oi pPan^e !n f 'n j JL ^I6-S' \m.
37.
20.
26.
32.
25.
*71.
65.
Purchased materials, higher inventories . . .26
Change in materials, supplies inventories. . 26
26
Buying policy production materials
27
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
27
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
27,39
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
Book value, mfrs.' inven. finished goods. . 27
June '71
Sep.
'71
June '71
7,73
7,73
7,73
7,73
Sep. '71
Dec. '71
Sep. '71
Sep.
Feb.
Sep.
28,37
28,37
28,37
7,74
7,74
7,74
July '71
Nov.
Aug.
Apr. '69
May '69
July '68
28
28
7,74
7,74
7,74
Aug. '71
Nov. '71
Oct. '71
June '71
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23
*19
*16
22.
15
*17
55.
58.
68.
Industrial materials prices
Stock or ices 500 common stocks
Corporate profits after taxes
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
Profits per dollar of sales mfs
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.
Wholesale prices, indus. commodities
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
28,37
'71
'71
July '68
'69
'68
Mar.
Nov.
29
7,74
Oct.
29,54
7,74,84
July '71
June '69
June '69
29
29,39
7,74
7,74
Aug. '71
Oct. '71
Nov.
30
7,75
Dec.
30
7,75
Dec. '71
30
30
7^75
Dec.
30,37
7,75
7,75
June '71
June '71 July '64
30
31
31
31
7,75
7,75
7,75
7,75
'71
July '68
'68
B6. Money and Credit
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at comm banks (M2)
103. Change in money sup. plus time dep. at'
banks and nonbank inst (M3)
••«
33 Change in mortgage debt
*113 Chanse in consumer installment debt
112. Change in business loans
110. Total private borrowing
14. Liabilities of business failures
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans
93.
114.
116.
115.
117.
66.
*72.
*67.
118
Free reserves
32
Treasury bill rate
32
Corporate bond yields
32
Treasury bond yields
32
Municipal bond yields
32
Consumer installment debt . ..
33
Com. and industrial loans outstanding
33,39
Bank rates on short-term bus. loans . . .33,39
Mortgage yields residential
33
'71
'71
June '71
'71
June '71
Apr. '71
Nov.
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
June
June
June
June
7,76
8,76
8,76
8,76
8,76
June '71
June '71
June '71
34
6,77
Feb.
35
34
34
35
35
35
35
35
77
Feb.
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.
'71
'71
'71
«71
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
'71
July '71
July '64
'68
Aug.'68#
Aug.
9,21,38
9,21,38.55
21,38,62
6,71
6,71
6,71
6,71
6,71
A8. National Income Components
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.
Tables
B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
. .
. . .
220.
222.
224.
225.
226.
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
245.
Charts
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS--Con.
Al. Gross National Product
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
'68
June '69
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj ...
811. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse
trend adjustment
820. 5 coincident indicators
830. 6 lagging indicators
813. Marginal employment adjustments
814. Capital investment commitments
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability
817. Sensitive financial flows
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6.77
'71
Aug.
'70
'71 Aug. '70
'71 Nov. '68
'71 Nov. '63
June '71
Feb. '71
Feb. '71
Feb. '71
June '71
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
113
Series Finding Guide —Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Cl. Aggregate Series
Bus. expend., new plant and equip
Manufacturers' sales total
Mfrs.' inventories, book value
Condition of mfrs.' inventories
Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity
25,39,4-0
41
41
41
41
72,78
78
78
78
78
420.
425.
430
435
Household income compared to year ago
Probability of change, household income
New cars purchased bv households
Index of consumer sentiment
42
42
42
42
78
78
78
78
Jan.
Jan.
D61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip
D440 New orders manufacturins
43
43
43
43
43
D450 Level of inventories, mfg. and trade
44
44
44
44
44
Sep.
Sep.
Jan.
Jan.
July '71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'71
'71
July '71
Jan. '71
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
»68
'68
'68
79
79
79
79
79
July
July
July
July
July
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
79
79
79
79
79
July
July
July
July
July
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
519. Balance on current account and long term
capital
521 Net liouiditv balance
522. Official reserve transactions balance
530. Liquid liabilities to foreigners
532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign
official agencies. . .
535. Allocations of SDR's
252. Exports of goods and services
253. Imports of goods and services
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted
540. Investment income, military sales, and
'71
'71
May '69
May '69
45
45
8,80
8,80
Oct.
Oct.
45
45
45
8,80
8,80
8,80
July '71 Aug.' 68 #
July '71
Oct.
'71 May '69
13,46
46
46
8,81
8,81
8,81
46
46
46
8,81
8,81
8,81
47
81
Aug.
'70
May '69
47
47
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
13, 4-8
13,43
81
81
81
81
81
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
48
48
81
81
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
48
81
541. Foreigners' investment income, military
expend and services imports* . .
542 Income on U S investments abroad. •
543. Income on foreign investments in U.S
Aug . ' 70 May '69
48
49
49
81
82
82
Aug.
'70
Sep. '70
Sep.
'70
545.
544.
547.
546.
548.
549
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
Receipts from foreigners in U.S
U.S. military expenditures abroad
Military sales to foreigners
Receipts, transportation and services
Payments transportation and services
49
49
49
49
49
49
82
82
82
82
82
82
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
561.
560.
565.
564.
570.
575.
U.S. direct investments abroad
Foreign direct investments in U.S
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Govt. grants and capital transactions
Banking and other capital transactions
50
50
50
50
50
50
82
82
82
82
82
82
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Oct.
Oct.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
51
51
51
14,52
52
52
52
52
52
8,83
8,83
8,83
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Nov.
Nov.
Sep.
Nov.
Apr.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
July' 68 #
July' 68 #
July1 68 #
Oct.
'69
May '69
May '69
May '69
D3. Federal Government Activities
600.
601.
602.
264
616
621.
647.
648
625.
Fed. balance, nat'l income and prod. acct. . .
Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod. acct.. .
Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod, acct. . .
National defense purchases
Defense Dept obligations total
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products industries . . .
New orders defense products
Military contract awards in U.S.
8,66,83
8,83
8,83
8,83
8,83
8,83
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
114
781.
782.
783.
784.
Consumer price
Consumer price
Consumer price
Consumer price
index
index
index,
index,
all items .
food
commodities
services
750.
58.
751.
752
Wholesale price
Wholesale price
Wholesale price
Wholesale price
index,
index
index,
index
all commodities — 54
29,54
mfd. goods
proc. foods, feeds . . 54
54
farm products
53,61
53
53
53
8,848484
84
June
June
June
June
'71
'71
'71
'71
8,84
June
July
June
June
'71 June '69
'71 June '69
'71 June '69
'71 June '69
84,74
84
84
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
C2. Diffusion Indexes
D2. Balance of Payments and Components
250. Balance on goods and services
515. Balance on goods, services, and remittances.
Tables
D4. Price Movements
61.
410
412.
414.
416
500 Merchandise trade balance
502 Exports excluding military aid
506. Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor
vehicles
508 Export orders nonelectrical machinery
512 General imports
Charts
Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS-Con.
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
D462 Selling prices manufacturing
D464 Selling prices wholesale trade
Current issue
(page numbers)
Sep.'68#
El. Actual and Potential GNP
205. Actual GN? in 1958 dollars
206 Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207 GNP gap (potential less actual)
9,21,38,55 6,64,70,85 Aug.
85
55
5,85
55
'71
Oct.
'69
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing . . .56
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . 56
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
56
durables
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
56
goods
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
57
personal income
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
57
persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. . 57
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers . . . 57
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. . . 57
57
857 Vacancy rate total rental housing
8,86
8,86
Jan.
Dec.
'71
'71
Feb.
'69
8,86
Oct.
'71
Sep.
'68
'68
8,86
Oct.
'71
Nov.
8,86
Aug.
'71
July '68
8,86
8,86
8,86
Nov.
'71
Apr. '71
June '68
June ' 68
8,86
8,86
Oct.
Nov.
'71
'71
June '68
E3. Diffusion Indexes
Dl.
D6.
Dll.
D34.
D19.
D23.
D5.
Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
58
New orders, durable goods industries
58
New capital appropriations, mfg
' 58
Profits, manufacturing
58
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
58
Industrial materials prices
58
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance. . . 58
87,89
87,89
87
87
87
87,90
88
Oct. '71
Nov.
'71
Sep.
'71
Apr. '71
Nov.
'71
Jan. '71
Nov.
'71
D41.
D47.
D58.
D54.
Employees on nonagri. payrolls
Industrial production
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods. .
Sales of retail stores
88,90
88,91
88,92
88,92
Oct.
Nov.
Jan.
Jan.
'71
'71
'71
'71
Aug.
Aug.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Sep.
'71
'71
'70
'70
«70
'70
'71
59
59
59
59
E5. Rates of Change
60
200. GNP in current dollars
205. GNP in constant dollars
60
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators . 60
48. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
60
47. Index of industrial production
60
55. Index of whsle. prices, indus. commodities . 60
60
May '69
Apr. '69
June '69
June '69
69
69
68
Aug.'68#
Nov.
68
June 69
May '69
Oct.
Oct.
Nov.
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Fl. Consumer Price Indexes
781. United States
133.
132.
135.
136.
138.
137.
Canada
United Kingdom
West Germany
France
Japan
Italy
F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47. United States
123. Canada
122. United Kingdom
126. France
125. West Germany . . .
128. Japan
121. OECD European countries
127 Italy
June '71 May '69
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
53,61
61
61
61
61
61
61
93
93
93
93
93
93
93
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
21,38,62
62
62
62
62
62
62
62
93
93
93
93
94
94
94
94
Oct.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Nov.
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
May '69
'68
F3. Stock Price Indexes
19.
143.
142
146.
145
148.
147.
United States
Canada
United Kingdom
France
West Germany
Japan
Italy
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk
(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources.
(A4)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4, B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8, E5)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8, El, E5)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). •
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Depart(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6, D3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
274. Final sales, nondurable goods, (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
*5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). - McGrawHill Information Systems Company. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(B3)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M). -- McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census thru May 1970 and by source agency thereafter.
(B3, B8)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q). - - The Conference Board
(B3, E3)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). •
street, Inc.
Dun and Brad(B6)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). -- Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
224. Disposable personal income in current do liars (Q). - Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
284. Rental income of persons (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q) Department of Commerce, Office o,' T'jsiness Economics (A2)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A8)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). -- Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8, E3, F3)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B4)
292. Personal saving (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(A3)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)
234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
B Cyclical Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
(A4)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q). • • Department of Commerce,
(B5, B8)
Office of Business Economics
*17. Index of price per unit of labor cost -- ratio, index of wholesale
prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted
index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics;
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(85, 68)
(Bl)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, producers' capital goods
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B3)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B4)
26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). -- National
Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
28. New private housing units started, total (M). - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
Continued on reverse
115
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (M). -- Purchasing Management Association of
Chicago
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and
life insurance companies (M). -- Institute of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing
and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S.
Savings and Loan League; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census.
(B6)
37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). - National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B4)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). -- American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). -•
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, 88)
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). •• Department of Labor, Manpower Administration
(Bl)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).--The Conference Board
(Bl)
*47. Index of industrial production (M). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). - Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, E5)
50. Number of job vacancies in manufacturing (M) - Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
*52. Personal income (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, B8)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (NT). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
*54. Sales of retail stores (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E4)
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, E5)
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M). - Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8)
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)
*61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).~
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(B3, B8, Cl, C2)
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing -ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
65. Manufacturers1 inventories of finished goods, book value, all
manufacturing industries (EOM). — Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). - Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
lift
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product a958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations -- ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B6, B8)
85. Change inU^.money supply (demand deposits plus currency) [Ml]
(HO.- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -The Conference Board
(B3)
102. Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at commercial
banks other than large CD's [M2] (M).- Board of Governors of
of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
103. Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at n on bank
thrift institutions [M3] (M). - Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
*113.Net change in consumer installment debt (M). - Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department
(B6)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). -- First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department (B6)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). -- The Bond
Buyer
(B6)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department
of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators - reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
811. Twelve leading indicators - composite index prior to reverse
trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19,
23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
813. Marginal employment adjustments - leading composite index
(includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
814. Capital investment commitments -- leading composite index
(includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing - leading composite
index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37) (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
816. Profitability - leading composite index (includes series 16,
17, and 19) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B7)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(Cl)
416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective
operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying
existing capacity as excessivel(EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) in
income of households (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Cl)
430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). -- University of Michigan,
Survey Research Center
(Cl)
0440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). See in
section B.
250. Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance of payments (Q).
— See in section A.
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).--See in section A.
253. Imports of goods and services:
(Q).--See in section A.
U.S. balance of payments
817. Sensitive financial flows - leading composite index (includes
series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- See in section A.
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7, E5)
500. Merchandise trade baUce (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 116)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (IKI). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M). -McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). - Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
512. General imports, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Dl)
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
515. Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S. balance of
payments (Q). — Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D3)
517. Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q). —
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
519. Balance on current account and long term capital; U.S. balance
of payments (Q). — Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
521. Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments (Q). —
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
522. Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q). — Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Depart
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
532. Liquid and certain n on liquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(02)
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ)- -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
535. Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
accounts (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D3)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). - Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series 46) to
total number of persons unemployed (M). — The Conference
Board, and Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
(E2)
(D3)
616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
military assistance (M). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(03)
621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)
625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, D5, D6, Dll, 019, D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, 061,
and section C for D440, D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464,
D466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
034. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D3)
750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)
751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(D4, E5, Fl)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) - Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
782. Index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). - Institut National
de la Statist!que et des Etudes Economiques(Paris)
(F2)
784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). - Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). -- Istituto Cent rale di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
E Analytical Measures
47. Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See in section B.
52. Personal income (M). See in section B.
54. Sales of retail stores (M). See in section B.
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). See in
section B.
200. GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap -- the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series 205) (Q). -- Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
781. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).
See in section D.
820. Five coincident indicators - composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (EOM). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(E2)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). - Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Statist!sches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- Insitut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(Fl)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).
Minister (Tokyo)
Office of the Prime
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M). - Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt(Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statisti ca( Rome)
(F3)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo)
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D.
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