Full text of Business Conditions Digest : December 1969
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DECEMBER 1969
DATA THROUGH NOVEMBER
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Statistical Analysis Division.
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and review,
Barry A. Beckman™Specifications for computer processing,
Gerald F. Donahoe=New projects,
Morton Somer=Se!ection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Betty F, Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
(Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the
Administrative and Publications Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and private agencies
which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources
at the back of this report,
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Maurice H. Stans, Secretary
Rocco C. Siciliano, Under Secretary
Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of
a technical committee established by the Bureau of the
Budget, This committee consists of the following persons:
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of the Budget
Chairman
George Hay Brown, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
William H. Branson, Council of Economic Advisers
A. Ross Eckler, Bureau of the Census
George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
EDWIN D. GOLDFIELD, Assistant Director
ABOUT THE REPORT
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
persona/, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output, GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
ma/or economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $16 a year ($4 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues
are $1.50. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your
This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely or
the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by stu
dents of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relation
ships among consumption, private investment, government
and various components of the major aggregates to generat<
forecasts of gross national product and its composition
Anticipations and intentions data express the expecta
tions of businessmen and the intentions of consumers
Most of the content of Business Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report and additional data reflect
ing the emphasis of other approaches have been added t(
to make it more generally useful to those concerned wit
an evaluation of current business; conditions and prospects
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators an
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators sec
tion of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, i
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureai
of the Census or any other government agency of any pal
ticular approach to economic analysis. This report is ir
tended only to provide statistical information so arrange
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation'
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this repo
have been published by their source agencies. A serie
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles an
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Cover
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office.
New Features and Changes for This Issue
BCD
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
JSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
ECEMBER 1969
ita Through November
ries ESI No. 69-12
iii
Seasonal Adjustments
i
MCD Moving Averages...
1
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C, Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
1
l
2
3
3
Section E. Analytical Measures
3
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts.-.
3
4
How to Locate a Series
4
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
5
PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
.,
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
,
National Income Components
Saving
9
10
11
12
13
;
„
... 14
15
16
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
18
21
23
26
28
30
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
34
36
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
40
43
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
46
47
52
54
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2
E3
E5
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change
56
57
59
61
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices.......
F2 I
F31
................................
62
Industrial Production......
Stock Prices....................
63
64
PART II. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
Gross National Product.......
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services................
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components..............
..................................
65
65
66
66
67
67
67
67
A9
Saving..........................
68
,
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl
B2
B3 [
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment...............................................................
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment.
Inventories and Inventory Investment.............................
Prices, Costs, and Profits............
Money and Credit..........
69
71
72
74
75
76
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes.......................
78
..,
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series........
Diffusion Indexes...........
79
80
,
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade.........
Balance of Payments and Major Components.....................................
Federal Government Activities.,...
Price Movements.........................
82
83
.................... 85
86
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP..
Analytical Ratios.......
Diffusion Indexes.............
Selected Diffusion Index Components.
87
88
89
92
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices..........
Industrial Production
Stock Prices.......
98
99
100
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See September issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
B. Current Adjustment Factors.......................
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (Not shown this month)
101
104
105
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
1854 to 1961 (See October issue)
Index—Series Finding Guide..
Titles and Sources of Series
.«
ii
113
115
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
inges in this issue are as follows:
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to mcorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
1. The series on total private borrowing (series 110) was resed last month by the source agency for the period beginning
52. Revised data for the period 1967 to date were shown on
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
je 76 of the November issue of BCD, Appendix C of this issue
in composition of
indexes, etc.
ssents the revised data beginning with 1952.
2. Industrial production indexes for OECD Europe, United
igdom, West Germany, and Italy have been revised to reflect
lor changes which have been made by the source agency. His•ical data for these series are shown in appendix C.
3. Appendix C presents historical data for series 110, 121,
,, 123, 125, 126, 127, 128, 200, 200b, 200c, 205, 205b, 205c,
, 210b, 210c, 264, 266, 270, 271, 274, 275, 280, 282, 284,
, 288,
290, 292,
294,
296,
298,
625, 647,
850, Dll, and D34.
January issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
ease on January 29.
iii
4 CENSUS PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
DIGEST
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
DEFENSE INDICATORS
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of years.
This report brings together
approximately 400 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form which is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current business
conditions and prospects is
the national income model,
the leading indicators,
anticipations and Intentions,
or a combination of these.
Other types of data such as
foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. Also, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for purchase.
A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965.
A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on th©
national economy.
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development. Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-product'ton-delivery process. Most
are monthly series, a/though
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
IV
The source statements for
FORTRAN IV programs which
arn used by the Bureau in
It?) analysis of time series
are available from the Bureau
on a single computer tape.
SJEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
prog/ram for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X-1I variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the
X-l I Q for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index,
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
Eo
F*
National Income and Product
Cyclical indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each ©f these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. The charts begin with 1948 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
in addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
St should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and d© not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This,
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (OBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy, It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Persona/ consumption expend/tures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and serv/ces measures
the excess of exports over imports of goods
and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both
U.S. purchases of foreign output and the
contribution made to production in the
United States by foreign-owned resources.
More detail on U.S. balance of payments
is provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Persona/ income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an ac1
counting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 72
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses tha same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 72 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basts.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging * indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators, Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based oin groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that of the
coincident index. This facilitates compari-
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(17 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins
(4 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
(2 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (3 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
sons among the leading, coincident, and
lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags,
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected group
of economic series. Percent changes at annual rate are shown for 1- and 3-month
spans or for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) as*
designated by NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (Feb.)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages,*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
20 -i/month for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are
plotted. ("IV" « fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series, "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L»2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc, The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans,
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted iy2, 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" —
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" ~
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting point*
indicates quarterly data over vari
ous spans.
MOTE; Some of the charts o
anticipations and intentions dat;
(section C) and balance of pay
ments data (section D) do nc
conform to the above method c
presentation. Deviations are adf
quately explained as they occu
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of "Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1966
1967
1968
Percent change
2dQ
3dQ
4th Q
1968
1968
1968
IstQ
1969
2dQ
1969
3dQ
1969
4th Q
to
IstQ
1969
IstQ
to
2dQ
1969
2dQ
to
3dQ
1969
Series number
|
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
200.
205
210.
215.
217
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann,rate,bil.dol. ,
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol. . .
do .
750,0
658,1
113,9
3i807
3»341
793.5
674,6
117.6
3*984
3?388
865.7
707,6
122.3
4*302
3»517
858,7
705.8
121.7
4*274
3*513
876,4
712,8
122.9
4*350
3.538
892 • 5
718.5
124.2
4t416
3t557
908,7
723,1
125.7
4t488
3»571
924.8
726.7
127.3
4i556
3t5QO
942.8
730.6
129,0
4i633
3 1 590
1.8
0*6
1.2
1*6
0.4
l.b
0,5
1.3
1.5
0,3
1.9
0.5
1.3
1,7
0.3
200
205
210
215
217
620,6
537.2
511,9
458,9
654.0
629,4
546.5
477,7
714,4
687,9
590,0
497,6
707,4
680.1
587.4
497.4
724.1
696,1
593,4
498.9
737.3
711.2
604.3
502.1
751.3
724.4
610.2
502.6
765,7
740.5
622.0
506.2
780.6
756.5
639.0
514.1
1*9
1*9
1.0
0*1
1.9
2,2
1*9
0.7
1.9
2,2
2.7
1,6
220
222
224
225
A2. Notional ond Personal Income
Ann. rate, bil.dol.,
do
. ...do .. .
Disposable personal income current dot
do
Disposable personal income, constant dol .
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol ...
current dollars
Per capita disposable personal income,
do
720 National income current dollars
224
225
226.
227.
2*599
2»745
2 ? 933
2*924
2*946
2i99l
3*014
3*065
3f 140
0.8
1.7
2.1*
226
2*331
2*399
2*474
2*476
2f477
2t485
2 1 482
2»494
2*526
-0,1
0.5
1.3
227
466.3
418.1
70,8
45,4
25.3
206,9
188.6
492.3
430.3
73.0
48.1
24.9
215.1
204.2
536,6
452.6
83,3
53.2
30.2
230.6
222.8
530.3
449 . 0
01,8
52.6
29.2
22.8.5
220.0
544,9
458.2
85,8
54,1
31.7
233,3
225,8
550.7
457.6
86.3
54.9
31.4
234.3
230.1
562.0
462.9
88,4
57.5
30*9
238.6
235.0
572.8
466.2
90.6
59.2
31.4
242.1
240.1
579,8
466,5
89.8
57.7
32,1
245.1
244.9
2.1
1.2
2.4
4.7
-1.6
U8
2.1
1.9
0.7
2.5
3,0
1.6
1.5
2.2
l.H
0.1
-0,9
-2*5
2,2
1,2
2.0
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
121.4
81.6
^8.5
53,1
25,0
14,8
116,0
83,7
27.9
55.7
25.0
7.4
126.3
88.8
29.3
59.5
30.2
7.3
126.6
66.4
28.3
58.1
30.3
9.9
125,2
83,1
29,0
59,1
29,9
7.2
133*9
91*5
30.1
61.4
31.9
10.5
135,2
95,3
32,3
63,0
33,3
6.6
137.4
97,8
32.1
65.7
32.7
6.9
143.3
101.1
34.7
66*4
31.4
10.7
1.0
4,2
7,3
2*6
4,4
-3,9
1.6
2.6
-0.6
4.3
-1.8
0.3
4.3
3.4
8.1
1.1
-4,0
3,8
240
241
242
243
244
245
5,3
43,4
38,1
5,2
46,2
41.0
2.5
50.6
46.1
3.4
50.7
47.3
3.6
53,4
49,7
1*2
50.6
49.4
1.5
47.6
46.1
1.6
57.1
55.5
2.7
57.8
55.2
0,3
-5*9
-6,7
0.1
20,0
20,4
1,1
1,2
-0.5
250
252
253
156.8
77.8
60.7
79,0
180.1
90.7
72,4
89.3
200.3
99.5
78.0
100.7
198,4
99.0
77.9
99.4
202,5
100,9
78,8
101.7
206.7
101.9
79.3
104.8
210.0
101.6
79.0
108.5
212.9
100.6
78.5
112.3
217.0
103.2
80.3
113,8
1.6
-0.3
-0,4
3.5
1,4
-1,0
-0,6
3.5
1,9
?.,6
2.3
1.3
260
262
264
266
146,2
157,0
171.4
168,9
173.7
176.6
181.6
185.5
187*8
2,8
2*1
1.2
270
10,5
222,3
3.9
234,1
5.3
252.3
6,6
250.4
5,1
256,1
7.4
256*4
4.8
259,7
4.9
264.1
7.6
267.4
-2.6
1.3
0.1
1.7
2.7
1.2
271
274
4.3
3.5
2.0
3.1
2,1
3tl
1,8
2.1
3.1
-1.3
0,3
1.0
275
435,5
do . .
do
61,3
do......
20.0
do
82,4
do
21.4
467.4
61,9
20.8
79.2
24.7
513.6
63.8
21.2
87*9
28,0
507,0
63,6
21,2
38,2
27,5
519.8
64,1
21.2
90.6
28.4
532*3
64.1
21*4
90*3
29.3
546.0
64,6
21.5
89.5
29,8
558,2
66,5
21,6
89.2
30.3
571.9
67.3
21.7
38.8
30.9
2.6
0.8
0.5
-0,9
1.7
2,2
2.9
0.5
-0.3
1.7
2,5
1.2
0.5
-0.4
2.0
280
282
284
286
288
do......
do
119.2
40.4
128,4
36.4
128,8
42.3
129,1
33,2
135*4
38.0
138,5
32,5
142.7
33.3
150.2
43,1
2.3
-14.5
3.0
2.5
5.3
29,4
290
292
24,8
68.6
-14,5
23.4
73.3
-6,7
24.1
73.0
-10.8
25.6
73,7
-3.5
23.6
74.6
-0.9
22,3
75,9
7,8
21.3
77.2
10.9
21.7
78,6
6.9
-5,5
1.7
8.7
-4,5
1.7
3.1
1.9
294
296
298
.1.7
-7.7
-9.5
-8,3
-5,9
-2.4
0.8
2.4
3,b
A3. Personol Consumption Expenditures
230
231.
232
233
234.
236.
237.
Ann. rate, bil.dol, .
Total current dollars
do
Total, constant dollars
do
Durable goods current dollars
do
Durable goods exc. autos current dollars .
do
Automobiles, current dollars
„. . .
do......
Nondurable goods, current dollars
do
Services, current dollars
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241.
242.
243.
244
do
Gross private domestic investment, total . . .
.. ..do ..
Fixed investment, total nonresidential .
.
.
.
. do
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
do
Fixed investment, producers' dur. equipu . . .
do
Fixed investment residential structures . • do
A5. Foreign Trode
do
do
do
252 Exports
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260. Total
262 Federal
266 State and local
270 Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods2
274. Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods 2
do
..... do
do
do
. do . . .
do
do
.
. do . . .
A8. National Income Components
280. Compensation of employees
284. Rental income of persons
286. Corp, profits and inventory valuation adj. . .
288 Net interest
A9. Soving
290. Gross saving, total
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2
El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP eao Potential less actual) 2
do
do
do
do
124.9
32.5
27.4
63,9
1.1
-11.0
-9.4
i.a
-4,0
3.2
207
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
1
1967
1968
IstQ
1969
2dQ
1969
3dQ
1969
Sept.
1969
Oct.
1969
NOV.
1969
Sept,
to
Oct.
1969
Ocl.
to
Now
1939
IstQ
2d Q
to
to
2dQ
3dQ
__J9SS_
_Ji?L~
e
.1
M
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
810. 12 loading indicators, reverse trend adj. . 1963-100
do
820. 5 coincident indicators
do
830 6 lagging indicators
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
814.
815.
815
817.
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
do
do
do
do
do
129.5
143. 2
150.9
141.4
156.6
164.8
149.9
165.3
178.9
152.4
169.1
184,9
152.5
171,5
192,9
153.6
171.4
194.9
153.4
172.4
196,3
152.5
173.0
197.1
-0.1
0.6
0.7
-0.6
0.3
0.4
1.7
2.0
3.4
0.1
1.4
4.3
810
320
830
104,3
107.1
101.0
114.6
98.3
106.4
114, ,2
101.8
116.6
-101.9
107.0
118.9
103.6
118.7
101.0
107.7
118.5
105.4
118.7
101.7
106,5
117,9
106.7
116.0
98,5
106.6
118.4
107.2
115.6
99.9
106.1
117.7
107.3
116,0
99.2
NA
116.4
107.5
115*6
NA
-0.5
-0.6
0.1
0.3
-0.7
NA
-1.1
0.2
«0.2
NA
0.7
-0,3
1.7
0.0
0.7
-1.1
-0.5
U2
-2.3
-3,1
313
814
815
816
817
40.7
5t7i6
4.6
40.5
5 1 352
4.7
40.7
5t356
4.9
40,7
5*196
4.7
40.8
5ill2
4.8
40.5
4.8bO
4,8
40.5
4t716
NA
-0.7
-4.9
0.0
0,0
-3.0
NA
0.5
0.1
0,2
0.0
-3,0
-0.2
1
4
2
194
1.2
183
1.1
186
1.1
198
1.2
201
U2
202
1.2
214
NA
-0.5
0.0
-5,9
NA
-1.6
0.0
-6.5
-0.1
5
3
348
186
373
206
365
228
363
231
346
229
346
235
343
227
347
222
-0.9
-3.4
-a «.2
Id2
4.9
1.3
-9.7
-0.9
49
46
131.4
65.8
70,5
134.6
67,8
72.1
137.5
69.5
73.8
139.0
70.0
73.8
139,8
70,4
74.5
139.9
70.4
74-7
139.8
70.6
75.0
139.8
70.6
75.1
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0,0
0.0
0.1
1.1
0.7
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.9
48
41
42
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
Hours
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
40,6
Ann. rate, thous. . 5,817
4. Nonagri. placements, all industries
2
Per 100 employ . . 4.4
2. Accession rate manufacturing
*5. Avg. weekly Initial claims, State 3
Thousands
..
225
unemployment insurance (inverted )3 ....
1.4
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted )8. . . Per 100 employ . .
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies:
49, Nonagri. job openings unfilled *
46. Help-wanted advertising
Thous., EOF....
1957-59-100 ....
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
establishments.
Ann. rate, billion
man-hours .
Millions
do
42 Persons engaged in nonagri activities . * .
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted3)2 — Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured
unemployment
do
rate (inverted3)2
40, Unemployment rate, married males
do . . .
(inverted^) ^
3,8
3.6
3.3
3.5
3.7
4.0
3.9
3.4
0.1
0.5
2,5
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.2
£.2
2,2
2.3
0.0
-0.1
l.S
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.5
0.0
0*2
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0,5
0.5
0.0
Ann. rate, bil.dol. , 793,5
do.,..., 674.6
1957-59-100 .... 156,1
865,7
707,6
165,4
908.7
723.1
170.2
924.8
726.7
172.6
942,8
730,6
174.3
173.9
173.1
171.1
Comprehensive Income;
*52. Personal income
Ann. rate, bit, dot. 629,4
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg,, constr , . .
do
163,8
687.9
178.6
724.4
188.5
740.5
193.5
756,5
197.6
760.7
198,6
763.7
198,9
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*5S, Manufacturing and trade sales
57, Final sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
It 162 U212
853.4 902.1
338.4 343.8
It239
917.9
352.8
It 259
932.0
350,8
If 271
117,8
233,2
124.7
256.5
123.5
281.6
302.3
155
75.4
23.0
63.0
334.5
176
85.0
24.8
69.7
359.4
197
93.3
26.6
76.5
703
Ii273
95.6
793
It 498
112.9
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
4
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
. Bil.dol., EOP... 80.58
do
97. Backlog of capital approp,,mfg.4
20*41
84.07
20.02
-0.2
43
-0.2
45
-0.1
-0.1
40
0.0
-0.1
0,0
44
i.a
-0.5
<*A. 2
0.5
1.4
1.9
0.5
1.0
200
205
47
766.9
196.4
O.J*
0.2
0.4
«0»3
2.2
2.7
2.2
2.1
52
53
It281
NA
0,3
NA
351.1
355,3
352.2
1.2
-0.9
2.2
1.6
1.1
1.6
1.5
-0.6
56
57
54
123.9
279.6
123.0
277.7
123.5
293.8
NA
NA
0.,4
5«8
MA
NA
-1.0
9.3
0.3
-0,7
12
13
360.4
193
96.5
30.0
80.2
374,8
190
96,0
31.1
79,8
385.7
173
103,8
380.4
195
96.0
366.8
178
91.8
-1.4
12.7
-7.5
-3.6
-8.7
-4,4
88.2
77.4
77.0
-12.2
-0,5
0.3
-2.0
3.4
12.8
4.8
4,0
-1.6
-0.5
3.7
-0.5
6
b
10
11
24
912
It692
119.8
927
If 496
116.0
846
It4l4
102,3
790
If522
100.4
If 029
It 359
98,9
762
If 267
96.6
30.3
-10.7
-1.5
-25,9
-6,8
-2.1
1.6
-11,6
-3,2
-8.7
-5.5
-11.8
9
7
29
35.16
20.48
85.91
21.52
86.38
22,26
86.38
86.29
85,82
-0.1
-0.5
0.9
5.1
0.5
3.4
96
97
-0.2
0.1
LAGGING /ND/CATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
* 44. Unemployment rate,
15 weeks and
over (inverted3)3
do
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
do
do
do
It 068
786.2
314.0
83. Fixed Capital Investment
LEAD/NG INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
1957-59- 100 . 107,7
Ann. rate, thous, . 207.8
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries — Ann, rate, bil.dol , .
8. Construction contracts, total value
1957-59=100 ....
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . . .Ann,rate,bil.dol . .
do
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing.
.do
24. New orders, mach, and equip, industries . .
9. Construction contracts, commercial
Amuate,inil.sq.
and industrial buildings .
fUloor space . .
7, Private nonfarm housing starts
Ann. rate, thous. .
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing , . 1957-5^100 ....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
1967
1968
Percent change
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
Sept.
1969
1969
1969
1969
Oct.
1969
Nov.
1969
Sept.
to
Oct.
Oct.
1969
NOV.
1969
IstQ
to
2dQ
to
1969
2dQ
to
3dQ
1969
Series nunber
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capitol Investment-Can.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip - * • Ann. rate, oil. dol. 61.69
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
do
76t90
64.11
68.90
70.20
72.45
82.69
90.58
90.18
94.98
1.9
99.50
3.2
61
5.3
69
245
94.07
NA
0.3
3.6
17.3
NA
U.4
NA
0.8
2.5
31
0
37
-5.5
NA
-0.4
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business inventories, all
industries2.
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
Ann. rate, billion
7.4
do
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
20. Change in book value, manufacturers*
inventories of materials, supplies2 .
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2 ©
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
25, Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
industries2
Percent
Ann. rate, billion
dollars
ftrcent
do
Ann. rate billion
dollars
6,5
7.3
10,1
6.6
10.6
6.9
11.4
10,7
13,9
12.9
44
51
46
50
50
48
53
57
5
4
4
O.X
1.4
1.1
1.0
0.4
0.7
3.5
NA
2.8
NA
-0.1
65
64
59
65
62
65
63
65
-2
2
44
53
61
69
67
66
2.6
3,5
4.3
3.0
1.9
4.7
65
-1.1
62
-5.6
-1
-5.8
6
8
-3
-4,5
-1,3
-0.6
20
-3
26
-2
32
-1.1
25
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories A . .Bil. dot., EOP . . . 143.7
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
26,81
do
of finished goods*
153.8
156.4
159.3
162.7
162.7
164.2
NA
0.9
NA
1.9
2.1
71
29.13
29.61
30.45
31.10
31.10
31.21
NA
0.4
NA
2.8
2.1
65
0,0
4,6
4.1
23
0.7
0.8
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices©
1957-59=100 .... 100.4
97,8
105.5
110.4
114,9
117.4
115,6
115.6
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®
1941-43=10
91.9
98.7
100.9
101.7
94,5
94.5
95.5
96.2
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
47.3
49.8
52.2
51.8
50.2
11.9
11.4
-1,5
1.1
Profits and Profit Margins:
22, Ratio, profits to income originating,
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 Cents
5.0
1957-59=100 .... 100.7
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
5.1
11.3
5.0
11.1
4.9
10.5
4.8
-7.1
19
-0.8
-3.1
16
-0.2
-0.1
-0.6
22
15
17
-O.i
-0.5
99.2
99.8
99.9
99,4
99.0
99.0
98.6
o.o
109.0
109.4
111.4
111.7
112..2
112..8
112.8
113.7
113.2
113.9
113.8
114.6
114.2
114.9
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.7
1.0
0.5
0.8
55
58
0.706
0.723
0.745
0.755
0.767
1957-59=100 .... 106.0
110.3
112.0
113.0
114.3
115.1
115,7
116.5
0,5
0.7
1.3
0,9
1,6
1,2
68
62
-0.4
0.1
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities © . 1957-59=100 .... 106.3
106.7
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods © .
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
rinllirc-
B6. Money and Credit
LEADfNG INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in money supply and time
Ann. rate, percent
deposits2
do
85* Change in money supply2
2
Ann. rate, bil. do).
33, Change in mortgage debt
do
*113. Change in consumer installment debt z ...
do
112. Change in business loans 2
do
110. Total private borrowing
10.6
6.4
16,7
3.2
4.4
65,4
Credit Difficulties:
1*27
do
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.3)® .
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans
3 2
Percent, EOP . . . U74
(inverted ) *
9.0
7,0
20.0
8,9
7,6
-0.6
4.1
21.6
8.3
0.7
4,4
21.4
9.6
80.8
10.3
91.0
10.8
99.3
0»94
1.00
1.21
1.71
1.51
1.64
-207
-592
5.34
6.84
5.26
4.45
6.14
7.46
5.88
5.03
-6.7
0,0
19.5
7.7
2.2
80,6
1.00
1.70
.1.2
0.0
20.7
8.4
9.0
0.88
NA
-1.6
0.6
18,4
8.0
7,6
1.6
3.6
NA
NA
-1.1
-0.4
0.6
-2.3
-0.4
-1,4
3,2
3.0
NA
NA
-8,7
1.3
0.3
-0.2
1.3
0.5
9.1
-7.4
-4.4
-1.9
-1.9
-8.6
-18,8
96
85
33
113
112
110
17.4
14
1.69
NA
NA
NA
-0.13
-0.06
39
-It009
161
17
411
-53
93
1.40
1.53
-59.1
-9.3
-21.0
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
93 Free reserves (inverted 3)2 ©
Million dollars...
Money
114
116.
115.
117.
Percent
do.
do
do
Market Interest Rates:
Treasury bill rate 2 ®
Corporate bond yields 2 ©
Treasury bond yields2 ©
Municipal bond yiehJ$2<a
194
4.33
6.08
4.85
3.94
•1»003
6,24
7.73
5.91
5.43
-950
-831
-992
7.05
8.16
6.14
6.00
7.13
8.36
6.32
6.26
7.04
8.46
6.27
6.09
7,19
8,94
6.52
6,30
-0,09
0.10
-0.05
-0.17
0,15
0,48
0.25
0,21
0.10
0.27
0.03
0.40
0.81
0.43
0.23
0.57
114
lie
115
117
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data *
Series title
Unit
of
measure
1967
1968
Percent change
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
Sept.
1969
1969
1969
1969
Oct.
1969
NOV.
1969
Sept.
to
Oct.
1969
IstQ
to
Oct.
to
Now
1969
1969
to
<i>
3dQ
o»
<ft
1969
B, CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6, Mont/ and Credit-Con.
LAGC/NC INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt4
Bil.doJ., HOP...
*72, Coin, and industrial loans outstanding *, . , .... do
79,2
88,1
90.2
92.6
94.5
94*5
95.2
65.1
72,3
74.7
77,0
78.0
78.0
78.3
78.4
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67, Bank rates on short-term bus.
loans 2®, . .
118. Mortgage yields, residential2 © ........
6.00
6,56
6,68
7.19
7.32
8.02
7.86
8»16
6,82
8.37
8.40
3.48
8,43
do
NA
0.7
0.4
0,08
2.?
3,1
NA
O.i
©!l4
0.00
2.1
1,3
0,96
0,21
66
72
67
118
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trode
500. Merchandise trade balance2
502. Exports, excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods except motor
vehicles
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
512. General imports
Ann. rate, bit. dot..
4.1
i.O
do
31.0
do
1957-59-100..-.
Aniuate.bil.dot..
26,9
33.1
do
do
-3.54
-3.42
0.17
do
-12.7
-5.2
10.8
230
34.1
12,3
241
-0.3
30.3
13.4
241
30.6
0.9
39.4
14.2
262
38.6
1.8
2.3
39,5
15.1
272
37.2
39.9
15.8
276
36.7
40.4
16.1
249
38.7
1.8
40.4
NA
NA
38.6
-1.5
1,3
0,0
30,0
1.9
6.0
8.7
-9,8
5.4
-0.3
500
1*2
0,0
,
26.1
0.3
502
6,3
3.8
-3,6
506
508
512
-8,61
520
522
D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
520. Liquidity balance basis2
522, Official settlements basis2
1.64
-8,8©
-6.68 -15.48 -10.22
4,94
4,58
-3.67
0.36
D3, Federal Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts *
601. Federal receipts, national income and
product accounts
602. Federal expenditures, national income
and product accounts
264 National defense purchases
616. Defense Dept. obligations, total
621. Defense Dept, obligations, procurement . . .
$47. New orders, defense products industries, . .
648. New orders, defense products
625. Military contract awards in U.S
9.6
13,0
7.2
3.4
-5,8
600
3.1
-0,7
601
do
151.1
176.3
198.1
202,3
200.8
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
163.8
181.5
188.5
189.3
193,6
78,0
86.6
28.9
47.5
42.3
79.0
85.5
24.2
48.9
25.2
39.6
78.5
74.4
17.0
42.3
20.6
31.7
80.3
80.5
19,4
47,8
21.0
35.5
121,2
108.7
124.8
111.2
126.9
112.6
128,7
113,4
84.5
84.5
84.2
72.4
31.0
26,1
42.5
NA
42.3
NA
0.4
-0.6
78.0
25. 2
49.4
17.0
33.0
NA
NA
53 ,,4
87.8
24.8
48,7
21.5
39.8
25,8
31.9
129,8
114,0
130.5
114.7
12.6
-1.6
-1.4
26.5
ao.6
NA
NA
9,7
£0.0
-13.0
-29 . 8
-12.5
-18.3
-19.9
2,3
2.3
Ur!l
11.7
1.9
264
616
621
647
648
62S
D4. Price Movements
781. Consumer prices, all items ©
1957-59-100 .... 116,3
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities <§)....
do
106.1
129.3
113.6
0.4
0.4
0,6
1.7
1.3
1.4
0.7
781
750
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Anolyticol Rotios
850, Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2. .
85.3
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
and trade
1.58
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs/
..... do
3.48
durable goods industries
853, Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
1957-59-100 .... 123,3
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
Rfltin
0.074
personal income
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
0.121
..... do
unfilled to persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. . 1957-59-100 .... 129,9
856. Real average hourly earnings, production
1957-59 dollars.. 2,43
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers*
•
78,08
do
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing a<§) • •
6.2
84.5
0.0
0.0
1.54
1.54
1.54
1.54
1.S4
1.54
NA
3.31
3.20
3.22
3.14
3.07
3.04
NA
118.7
121.3
120.8
122.7
124.4
122.2
1.4
0,107
0.109
0.124
1.9
118.4
0.065
0,053
0,053
0.067
0.133
134.2
0,139
135,0
0.137
134,5
0,117
134.3
2.48
2.50
2.48
78.53
78,29
78.24
78.30
5.4
5.0
5.1
5.0
2.51
-1.0
2.51
2.50
2.50
-0.4
78,53
78,18
77.88
-0.4
-0.3
0.0
650
851
NA
0.0
MA
0.6
-2,5
8S2
a.a
o.o '
-0,4
853
13.8
0.0
26,4
854
-1.4
-0.4
-0.1
855
858
.0.6
1.2
856
0.1
859
8S7
-0.1
0,1
-0.1
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, NA - not available,
a - anticipated.
EOF - end of period.
1
In many cases, data shewn here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different unit a than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published lay the source agencies or they are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly i'l *yref) for monthly oorioo)
arc averages or totals of the data ao shown in part II.
2
Differenoeo rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Invorted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general 'business activity, signs of the changes arc revortjod,
*End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period,
AND PRODUCT
Chart Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
ca( ita IM^ fct 19*8 tola 3,
(aBn. fate, thous. AH.)
1948 49
50
Si
52
53
Current dofa for these series are shown on page 65.
BtJP DECEMBER 1969
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(luly)
P
(July) (Apr)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
220, Nattatf borne, current data, Q (m rate, W dot)
222. f*#sona( income, currant dollars, Q
iiH> rate, bit dot]
224. Dfep0$3t& fNjfsoBS) income, current
t*o«ars, 0 1m rate, bi
225. Disposalr personal ncome, 1958 defers,
Q (ana *fc t* (W.I
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
63
63
64
65
66
6/
68
69 1970
Current data for these serla* are shown on page 65.
10
DECEMBER
1969
licit
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A3
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948 49
50
51
52
duly)
(Aug.)
P
T
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
P
55
56
57
(May) {Feb.)
T
58
P
59
60
T
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
ItCII
DECEMBER
1969
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A4
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(0ct)
T
(iuly) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feh)
T
P
I
Annual rate, bi*fon doiars (current)
1048 49
50
SI
S2
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
09 1970
Currant data for thege carle* are shown on pogo 66,
12
DECEMBER 1969 BU)
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(My)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
253. Imports of goods and services Q
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 67°
BCD
DECEMBER
1969
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Annual rate, bite dollars (current]
260. Federal, t$t&, and local governments, Q
262. Federal Government, Q
I
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
264. Material defense, Q
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
14
DECEMBER
1969
BCD
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
270, Final sales, durable goods, Q
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods, 0
274. Final sates, nondurable goods, Q
business mventortes, nondurable goods, Q
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
DECEMBER 1969
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(Nov.) (Bet.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
700 600 \
Annual rate, billion dotlafs (current)
500400of wnptoyoi^ Q
280.
300*
80 -
*
60
-
15 J
1101
1CO-
sogo-I
286. Cofporate ptfjtt and inventory dpion adjustment, Q
60 J
3530-
2520 -|
15-
5J
1948
50
51
S2
53
54
55
56
57
5S
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
39 1970
Current dato for thete series are shown on pages 67 and 60.
16
DECEMBER
1969
BCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Section A
SAVING
(Nov.) (Set)
P
(July)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
duly) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P I
290. Gross saving (private and government)^
oreffls plus inventory vsfetfri adjustment. 0
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
DECEMBER
1969
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Average wmfeWttK, production wortters, tn*ufiiiffci£ (hours)
piacemenU, al industries
2. Accession rat^ «mufdcturing (per 100 wnptoyafts
initial cHM$» State unemptoyfj*** ktsur^ice (thousand-inverted scatej
ii
!:
;7;
:
:':l
!:
:;
rate, mamtfacturiR|
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for those series arc shown on page 69.
18
DECEMBER
1969
!!€!»
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
job openiftg$ unfilled (thousandsj
ising (index: 1957-59=180)
fate, toil, nwn-hours)
s on nonagrUMial
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
BCI» DECEMBER
1969
19
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators —Con.
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
(My)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
T
2«
345-
pgured iwttmploynw* rate (percent-inverted scale)
40, Unwnptoymsflt fcfc, married males ^*wnt-inverted scale)
3-
GLagging Indicators
Weeks and ovw (pwcwrt-inverted scale]
1-
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these «rf« are shown on page 70.
20
DECEMBER 1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
*200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bi I. do I.)
*47. ftdu&iai production (index; 1957*59=100)
*52. Personal tome (m rate, HI $oM
53; Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing^
cunstmctltm [ann. rate, mi. ' "
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOTE: For this economic process {i.e,. Production, income. Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging Gndicators have as yet been sefeeted.
Current data for these series ore shown on page 71.
ltd* DECEMBER 1969
21
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oet)
P
m
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(A"*)
T
P
{May} (Feb.)
T
P
T
*** sales |M. dot)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
63
69 1970
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consunvtlon, and Trade), no leading or Jagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
22
DECEMBER
1969
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
*12. Net business formation (index: 1957-59-100)
13. New business incorporations (thousands)
ion contracts, total value (index: 1957-59-100;
MOD moving avg.-5-term)'
s and orders, plant and equipment (fail, dol.)
j . '
1948
49
50
.'
51
52
r
jJLjUL ,. .
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
1970
*Thfs is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
BCD
DECEMBER
1969
23
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
LJJhwtJBj FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(My)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(Mas?) (Fib.)
T
P I
10-
New Investment Commitments - Con
11. New capital appapfetkm?, marufactHrtng, Q (bil. dol.)
24. New orders, a&tcbtoery and equipnwiri industries (bit dol.)
9. Construction conlMts, commercial
Private nontann TioiA $tartT[iia
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
'TMi f« a copyrighted ««rlti u*«d by p*rmltslon; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.
24
DECEMBER 1969
RCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
6. Man|fa€tuf|r$' twfi*ted enters, dujr^^Ls imJM$trie$|bii. dol)
Lagging Indicators
40-
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
BCJ) DECEMBER 1969
25
Section B
Chart B4
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oet)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(Hay) (Feb.)
T
P
T
245. Change in business inventories, aN industries, Q (ann. rate, Mi.
dot; MCO moving avg.-5
percent of companies reporting higher inventories
n\ ftiangs in book v^lw, manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies
pm. rate, ON, am; p&u moving avg.-b-termj
ntattris4$r poic&nt of companies
Ctt days or lonpr
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
68
69 1970
Current data for those series arc shown on page 74.
26
DECEMBER 1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (pet)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, durablti goods industries
jijil dol.; MCO Having avg.-4-termj !»
Lagging Indicators
value, manufacturing and trade inventories (tail, dot.)
value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (ML doi.)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
j7
68
69 1970
NOTE: For .this economic process (I.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data"for these series are shown on page 74.
ltd*
DECEMBER 1969
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
f
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
r
materials prices mm 1957-59=100)
22. Bft profits (after Hi)to '«com« ori£inatt«£t
7
53-
ma (index: 1957-59^100)
nu-
^;y^s>^vKx/
105-
;,
/,
i|
X_
:;
W
•-.
^
m
100Qfi-
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Currant data for those series arc shown on page 75.
28
DECEMBER 1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
duly) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
120-.
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
EE
115110-
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1957-59=100)
105100-
95-
120-i
115110-
prices, martofactured goods (index: 1957-59-100]
105-:
100-
959085-
Lagging Indicators
68. Labor cost [cur, dol.) per unit of re
*62 Lafeor cost per unit ot output, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
I»U) DECEMBER 1969
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(inly)
P
{July} (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
Flows of Money and Credit
96. Change in money supply and time deposits (ann, rate, percent;
MCD moving avg.-6-term)
+10 +5-'
-10J
85, Change in money supply farm, rite, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
+10-
e-
-10+30™
33. Change in mortgip debt (arm. rate, Ml dot,)
+25-
TT^
+1C-I
+15-
*113 Chanel to consumer insUMit debt (ana rate, bit dot.]
+10-
i;nange m mtsmen
W€D moving
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data tor those series oro shown on page 76.
30
DECEMBER
1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
duly) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
P
(May) (Fib.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
, Q (am. rate, bil. ctol.)
14. Liabilities of business failures (mil, dpi.-inverted scale;
rate, 38 days and over, total installment loans
| percent-in verted scale)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1969
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(luly) (Apr)
(Aug.)
T
P
{May} (Feb.)
T
P
T
93. FrU reserves (bit. dol, Averted scate)
bond ywWs (percent)
7. Municipal Hfetds (p«fcefit}
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
63
89 1970
Current data for those series arc shown on page 77.
32
DECEMBER
1969
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
66, CofiSttrner installment debt (bit
and industrial kvans outstanding,
large commercial banks (bil, dot.)
residential (percent]
1948 49
licit
50
51
DECEMBER
52
1969
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
33
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
Chart
B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(My)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
810. Twehm kadiog indicators, rev»Ne trend adjusted 1
5, 6f 10,12,16,17,1$, 23, 29, 31,113}
y
830. fix lagging Indicators jssfies 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72)
.JLJI AJLfuui..;, /
49
50
1948
51
S3
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
65
66
67
6S
69 1970
Current data for these series ore shown on page 78. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-1 and lags I • ) In months from reference turning dates,
1 Reverse trend adjusted Index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the Index of 5 coincident indicators.
34
OF.Cf.MBER
1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
(luly)
P
{Nov.} (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
813. Marginal empfoyment adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5)
commitments (series 6,10,12, 29)
"
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
'""
' •-•
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
DECEMBER
1969
35
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Section B
Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
{Nov.} (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
*1. Average workwwk, production workers, manufacturing [hours]
Average weekly initial clafcns, State unempterrt insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
(indei; 1957-59-100)
*6. Hew order durable goods intetles |b*l. dol.)
plant and eip^t (bil. dol.) .
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
(>©
1970
Current data for thaso series arc shown on pages 69, 72, and 73.
36
DECEMBER
1969
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
P
Change in book value,
T
and trade inventori
*23. Industrial materiais pfices (irxtex: 1957-59-100)
stocks fndex: 1941-43-10]
profits after tajces> Q (ann. rate, bl dol.}
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost
[index: 1957-59-1001
*113. Change in constnm installment debt
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 75, and 76.
DECEMBER 1969
37
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
{Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P I
*200. Gfff> m current dollars, 0 [yi rater b^del)
41 hdustrfai pftxkKtfon (index; 1957-59-100]
*56, Matwfacturing and trade
sates (feil, dol.)
$#$ ofretailstwtt M
41. Employe on nonagrorturaf iwfoite
, total Ipefcent-inverted scale)
.UULIt ' ;;
1948 49
''
50
'
51
52
'JUJLiL"
53
54
•
55
- jl JL)I
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
39 1970
Current data for thoie series are thown on pages 70 and 71.
38
DECEMBER
1969
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
-nr
ilV
V
0.51.01.52.QJ
90 -j
807060-
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (arm. rate, b'i dol.)
*62, Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing (index: 1957-59
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
*67J|Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 70, 73, 74, 75, and 77.
BCII DECEMBER
1969
39
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl
(July)
P
(Apr,)
T
AGGREGATE SERIES
(May}
P
(Feb.)
T
(at Actual exp^KJftums
farm, rats, bfl. dol,)
fb] Smwf Wtatyattom
Mnsat of acftm |perc«ftj
Current data for those sorlos aro shown on page 79.
40
DECEMBER
1969
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
Mr)
P
IMay)
P
(Apr,)
(Feb.)
T
410. Manufacturers' sates,!Wat value, Q jbil. dot)
412, Manufacturers' inventories,
book value, Q (bit. dol.)
414. Condition: of manufacturers1 inventories:
percent considered high less percent
considered tow, Q (percent) !!
of manufacturers';-capacity: percent
inadequate less percent considered
e, Q (percent)
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
BCII DECEMBER
1969
41
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Cl
(JIM Mr.)
(May)
P
P_ _ _ _ .T
T
(Feb.)
I
Anticipated •
4r
oTflSJ^Wf-^
*
(a) Pwcent of households reporting no change in family income (percent)
80-
4©H
Percent of households reporting higher family income (percem)
(C) Percent of households reporting lower family income (percent]
changes in income of households, Q
Mean probaNtty of
Mean probability of^ncf»as» « famrty income
„
-
_
^
-
"
Ihl
=v—(«ff-
c| Mftaawo6ab*ty of
130. Number of new can fwrttesed by househoJoX (^
arm. rate, mi cars)
i;
(a) Actual (quarterly)
i] Actual. 2-(warter moving avg.
(d) Anticipations as percent of actual aW
1SS7
58
59
60
61
62
63
Current data for these series are shown on page 79,
42
DECEMBER 1969
BCII
Section C
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(May)
(Apr.)
(Fib.)
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)
100 T
0440, New orders, manufacturing: (4-Q
75-
D442. Met profrts, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
0444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
D448. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
50-
25 -
1997
Current dota for these series ore shown on page 80.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
KtJP DECEMBER 1969
43
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(I*)
(Apr.)
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
P
T
< II^
:!
i
,;'
;|
:
;
;i
1
i|
j
.,
; jy]*
kirlnvnf* ''^^^^ rtnintv
0
(plotted at ten*** fart*)
M&I*U«I
fe
¥
•-
••-' ' " • II
;
: •:.:i
fiiik i ftvfii
i
,;
Actual
*-*—•
1 Anticipated ••.*»«
nf kivmitnrifis maujfantwrkiff and trarifi }4>fi koan)1
prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span}1
Seing prices, maflufacturing (4-0 span)T
ftSMp,
SeBmg prices, whotesate trade
JL JlJ
1957
58
59
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1071
Current data for those so riot are shown on page 80.
'this Is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Sradstreet, Inc.
44
DECEMBER 1969
IICII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
indexes: percent
at terminal quarterJ
D61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, all industries (1-Q span)
f
i
'
''
(a) Actual expenditures
0460. Freight carloadings (4-0 span]
|
1957
58
59
60
480. Change in freight carloadings (4-Q span)
(millions of cars}
61
67
68
69
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
IICII DECEMBER
1969
45
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart Dl
FOREIGN TRADE
500. M*rcte«Sse trade balance (W. tof, MCD
502. Exjwm, except military aid (bil, dot, MCD moving avg.
506, Export Wfcfs, durables exo^t motor vehicles
(bit. d^iMCD moving avg.-
Export wtters, nooetectrk^J
1^.1957-59=100; MCD mo^« avg.-4-term]
512, Gorwial imports |«L ^ MCD moving w.~*
JlJLJi JUUHUl ji ., JL L i 1 1948 49
90
§1
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
SO
61
62
6$
64
65
66
67
61!
6i
1970
Current dota for these series are shewn on page 82.
46
DECEMBER 1969
ltd*
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
520. Liquidity balance basts
(Change in U.S. official reserve assets and c
Bltiuraifitt to all foreTgnml
522. Official settlements basis
(Change in U.S. official reserve assets, and charge
to foreign monetay official agencies)
Annual rate, biion dollars
Excess of receipts (inflow)
CD Excess of payments (outflow)
+12-
525. Net capital movements, liquidity balance basis1
(outflow {-} left scale)
520. liquidity balance
527. Net capital movements,
c settlements basis1
522. Official settlements balance
j
I
/
'
250. Balance on goods and services
{surplus (+) right scale}
0-
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
6©
07
Si 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960 except for series 520.
1
1ncludes unilateral transfers and errors and omissions.
Ifc
IP
DECEMBER
1969
47
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
40-
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services-Con.
38-
530. Liquid liabilities to atl foreigners, outstanding at end of period
12-
532. liquid and certain nonltqukJ liabilities to
foreign official agencies, outstanding at end of period
4-
Hi
$34. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of periwf
20-
16-
12 J
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
63
63
64
65
66
67
63
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 03. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.
48
DECEMBER
1969
!!€!»
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
§61
Annual rate, billion dollars
52-
48Excess of receipts
Excess of payments
Goods and servtces-
38 =
250. Balance on goods and services
32 A
28-
Merchandise, adjusted536. Exports
1SJ
12-
Investment income, military sales
and expenditures, and other services-
8-
1048 49
S0
SI
52
§3
54
5S
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 197©
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to I960.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1969
49
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
D2
Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
| Annual rate, blliwi dollars
£2 Excess of receipts (inflow)
CD Excess of payments (outflow)
Investment income542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
44
543. Income on foreign investments in
Travel545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sales and expenditures-
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
"**
""—"""" ^JL'^ZC—'
546. Military sates to foreigners
Transportation and other services-
549. Payments
1948 49
50
51
S3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data (or those lerios are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
50
DECEMBER 1969
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements Plus Government
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
illion dollars]
Annual rate, billion
^ Excess of receipts (inflow)
CH Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments*
+8i
561. U.S. investments abroad
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
+4-
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
0-
-4-
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
*>
0
-4-1
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series ore shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
IBCI) DECEMBER 1969
51
r
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(Nov.) (Oet)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
{July} (Apr.)
P
{May} (Feb.)
T
P
T
Receipts and Expenditures
Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product
Ffttwal receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts, Q [ana rate, bil. do).}
Cut-rent data for these socles are shown on page 8S0
52
DECEMBER
1969
BOD
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(Nov.) (Oet.)
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
264. National defense purchases, Q fann. rate, oil. dol.)
616, Defense Department obligations, total (fail, do).; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
<
621, Defense Department obligations, procurement
fbil. dol; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
647. New orders, defense products industries
(bit. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
^ij_' ''
orders,
defense
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
DECEMBER
1969
53
KEY INDICATORS
Section D
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(Nw.) (Oet)
P
I
—1
!'
ji
;
1
i
!
_ . . _ , -
_
U
..
i!
i;
I
^
,
._
52
53
54
13S •
Index:' 1957-59 = t«
jj
!|
L
781. AH items
...^.^
i
.
,
55
Consymef
W**1,«I»MW. prices-
^
•
H JUULH..A A A. .'I. ii A A. L JL.A. i:..A. \.. L.,'ULJLiUL
51
_
_s
i
50
= -- -ij .
if
i
.
__ ^_._
__.•
1948 49
(May) (Feb.)
(Arty) (Apr.)
P T
,iJLJJl ...ji. ; '.;;. ,i J; .:• JLiUL.
56
57
58
50
6©
il
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current aata for those series are shown on page 86.
54
DECEMBER 1969
II
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
(Nav.) (Oct.)
P
T
(JuW
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
(in?) (Feb.)
Index: 1957-59 - 100
750. All commodities
58. Manufactured goods
751. Processed foods and feeds
752. Farm products
51
§2
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
KM) DECEMBER 1969
55
ANALYTICAL
[jChartJElJ ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
) (Apr,)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(May) (FOb.)
I
206.
Potential GNP1
_i
1948 49
30
51
S2
S3
S4
S5
SS
S?
SS
59
6©
ii
S2
63
§4
65
^
68
,.„_.,...,
67
Current data for theso series are shown on page 67.
'Trend tine of 3-1/2 percent por yoor through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent thereafter.
56
DECEMBER 1969
1 42
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E2
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(July) (Apr.)
(Nov.)
(May)
If
850, Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing, Q (percent]
, Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
durable goods industries
.....
,
_L__.
I
i!
853. Ratio, production of busirtess equipment to consumer goods
~—
ji i JL/LJui1 i
49
S©
51
fimJgrli»S7r!iQ=itinr—
' j jULji
i? i8
14© =
* ——n— -
v.
§9
JUUL
60 Si
Current data for these series are shown on page 88.
ltd)
DECEMBER 1969
57
Section E
ANALYTICAL
Chart E2j ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.
(Oet)
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
(Mart (Feb.)
P I
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income, Q
855. Ratio, nonagricuttural job openings unfilled to number of persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm, Q (index; 1957-59 100)
857. Vacancy rate m total rental housing, Q (percent)
i . ) i . -I i\ JlJ.JL.Jl > , , : , , . . , • > .
1948 49
50
,
51
94
55
§6
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
1970
Current data for those series are shown on page 88.
58
DECEMBER 1969
ItCII
Section E
Chart
E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
I
fill!/} (gpr.)
M (Feb.)
Percent rising
I!
ii
I
01. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-21 industries [9-mo. span— , 1-mo, span----]
<j,-v_^_|i_^ ,
^J*jr— -- - -— -^ ' , ^,-r-. -
„
-jg-^i
,»-.A
jj- -
_
ki^" ^"
~~-— -
-T==^-^- ==
« --
-fa
-
w--..•-•=,
D6. New orders, durable goods industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—]
D11. Newly approved capital appropriations -17 industries, NICB (3-Q span*^., 1-Q span^-.l
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits- about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span]
15 TI
019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
D5. InitiaJ Claims, State unemployment insurance-47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo, span—, 1-mo. span----)
1948
49
5©
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
6S
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 89 and 90.
ItUI
DECEMBER 1969
59
Section E
Pchart
E3
|
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(NQV.) (Oet)
P
T
P
T
(July} (Apr.)
P
T
(Mai) (Feb.)
P I
Ml Employees on nonagricuttural pay rolls-30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—]
D47. Industrial production-24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—
058. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods-22 industries (6-mo. span— r 1-mo. span
D54. Sates of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1<mo. span-
Current data for tne«e series arc shown on page 91.
60
DECEMBER
1969
BCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart
RATES OF CHANGE
(July)
P
E5
(Apr.)
IT
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56]
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
m
^/^S^jC^^
781. Index of consumer prices, all items
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Index—Series Finding Guide," pp. 113 and 114
DECEMBER 1969
61
Section
DM
Fr
F
Chart Fl
CONSUMER PRICES
(Nov.) (pet)
P
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
(July) (Apr.)
P
IT
(Aug.)
I
(May) •
P
957-59'=
Consumer prices-
t<n
8
w
781J United States
1948 49
SO
51
§a
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
6S
U£ 1970
Current data for those series are shown on page 98.
62
DECEMBER
1969 KM)
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Section F
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
1948 49
50
51
5a
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
©7
68
©9
1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 99.
KCII
DECEMBER
1969
63
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
STOCK PRICES
1048 4i
§0
Si
§g
53
B4
SO
61
62
63
64
6?
68
6S 1S70
Current data for those series arc shown on pago 100.
64
DECEMBER
1969
KCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
200. Current dollars
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
205. Constant (1958) dollars
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil, doi.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
210. Implicit price deflator
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
a. Total
b. Difference
(Index:
1958-100)
(Index:
1958-100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
729.5
743.3
755.9
770.7
+19.5
+13.8
+12.6
+14.8
+10.8
+7.6
+6.8
+8.0
655.0
660.2
774.2
783.5
300.4
+3.5
+9.3
+16.9
+15.7
+2.0
+4.8
+8.8
+8.0
666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5
835.3
858.7
876.4
892.5
+19.2
+9.6
693.3
705.8
908.7
924.8
942.8
+7.9
+8.0
+3.6
+3.2
+4.8
112.4
113.5
114.5
115.4
+0.9
+1,1
+1.0
+0.9
+3.2
+4.0
+3.6
+3.2
-1.6
+4.0
+7.5
+5.5
-0.8
+2.4
+4.4
+3.2
116.2
116.9
118.1
119.4
+0.8
+0.7
+1.2
+1.3
+2.8
+2.4
+4.0
+4.4
+9.8
+12.5
+7.0
+5-7
+5.6
+7.2
+4.0
+3.2
120.5
121.7
122.9
124.2
+1.1
+1.2
+1.2
+1.3
+3.6
+4.0
+4.0
+4.4
+4.6
+3.6
+3.9
+2.4
+2,0
+2.0
125.7
127.3
129.0
+1.5
+1.6
+1.7
+4.8
+5.2
+5.2
649.1
+5.9
+5.2
668.1
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
816.1
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
+23.4
+11.2
+17.7
+16.1
+8.4
+7.2
712.8
718.5
+16.2
+16.1
+7.2
+7.2
+7.6
723.1
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
•t-18.0
726.7
730.6
GROSS NATIONAL
PRO DUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
215. Per capita 217. Per capita
GNP, current
GNP, constant
dollars
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
220. National
income in cur*
rent dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bii. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
3,720
3,780
3,833
3,895
3,310
3,331
603.2
3,347
3,377
626.9
637.3
3,903
3,940
3,360
3,372
3,400
4,080
3,418
4,168
3,459
4,274
4,350
3,513
453.5
454.7
2,549
2,574
2,313
2,313
2,656
2,339
2,356
570.3
580.7
592.9
605.0
499.9
506.0
525.6
461.2
466.1
639.3
646.2
658.5
672.0
615.2
534.4
541.6
471.6
622.2
634.5
645.9
550.3
559-8
476.0
479.4
483.7
2,694
2,724
2,760
2,799
2,378
2,394
2,404
688.8
707.4
664.3
575.0
587.4
593.4
604.3
492.1
497.4
498.9
502.1
2,869
2,924
2,946
2,991
2,455
2,476
2,477
2,485
724.4
740.5
756.5
610.2
502.6
506.2
3,014
2,482
2,494
2,526
615.0
515.9
2,616
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
4, OH
2,419
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
4,418
3,538
3,557
724.1
4,488
4,556
4,633
3,580
3,590
3,571
751.3
737.3
680.1
696.1
711.2
1969
First quarter. ...
Second quarter,
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
765.7
r780.6
622.0
639.0
5U.1
3,065
3,340
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ItO
DECEMBER 1969
65
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter.,
230. Total in
current dollars
231 Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
232. Durable goods, 233. Durable goods, 234. Automobiles
in current dollars
total except autos,
total in current
in current dollars
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
236, Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
457.8
461.9
471.2
474.5
415.3
415.1
421.3
420.7
71.2
68.5
71.3
71-9
44.4
44.5
46.2
46.5
26.8
24.0
25.1
25.4
202.6
206.4
209.6
209.1
133.9
136.9
190.2
193.5
480,9
489. S
495.7
502.6
424.4
430.5
431.9
434.3
70.0
73.5
73.3
75.2
46.9
47.6
47.9
50.0
23.1
25.9
25.4
25.2
213.2
214.4
215. a
216.3
197.7
201.8
206.6
210.6
520.6
530.3
544.9
550.7
445.6
449-0
458.2
457.6
79.5
81.8
85.8
86.3
51.1
52.6
54.1
54.9
28.4
29.2
31.7
31.4
226.1
228,5
233.3
234,3
215.1
220.0
225.8
210.1
562,0
572.8
579,8
462.9
466.2
466.5
88.4
90.6
89.8
57.5
69.2
57.7
30.9
31-4
32.1
238.6
242.1
245.1
335.0
240.1
2.44.9
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter ,
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bii, dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
244. Residential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
117.5
122.4
119.6
126.2
78.8
80.3
83-0
84.2
28.6
28.2
29.0
28.2
50.2
52.1
54.0
56.0
26.0
24.7
22.1
27.4
+11.3
4-16.2
+11.9
4-19.9
113.6
109.4
117.7
123.3
83.3
83.0
83.5
85.0
29.0
27.2
27.8
27. fi
54.2
55.8
55.7
57.2
21.4
23.1
26.5
28.8
+9.0
+3.4
+7.8
+9.5
119.4
126.6
125.2
133.9
89.1
86.4
88.1
91.5
29.8
28.3
29.0
30.1
59.4
58.1
59.1
61.4
28.6
30.3
29.9
31.9
1-1.6
+9.9
+7.2
+10.5
135.2
137.4
143.3
95.3
97.8
101.1
32.3
32.1
34,7
63.0
65.7
66.4
33.3
32.7
31.4
+6.6
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
-r6,9
•H0.7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series1 numbers are for
identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised V preliminary
"en, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
66
DECEMBER 1969
KCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
OF GOODS AND SERVICES
H GOVERNMENTINPURCHASES
CURRENT DOLLARS
Q FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
252. Exports
of goods and
services
253. Imports
of goods and
services
260. Total
262. Federal
264. National
defense
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}.
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First Quarter
Second Quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1967
+6.2
+5.6
+4.4
+4.9
42.2
42.7
43.7
44.8
36.0
37.1
39.3
39.9
14,8.0
153.4
160.7
165.2
72.8
75.6
80.5
82.1
55.3
58.5
63.3
65.6
75.2
77.7
80.1
83.0
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third Quarter
Fourth quarter
+5.4
+5.8
+5.6
+3.8
45.8
45.9
46.3
46.7
40.4
40.1
40.7
42.8
174.2
178.5
181.3
186.4
87.8
90.3
91.3
93.5
69.9
71.9
73.0
74.6
86.4
88.1
90.0
92.9
+1.9
+3.4
+3.6
+1.2
47.7
50.7
53.4
50.6
45.9
47-3
49.7
49.4
193.4
198.4
202.5
206.7
96.3
99.0
100.9
101.9
76.1
77.9
78.8
79.3
97.1
99.4
101.7
104.8
+1.5
+1.6
+2.7
47.6
57.1
57.8
46.1
55.5
55.2
210.0
212.9
217.0
101.6
100.6
103.2
79.0
78,5
80 ,,3
108.5
112.3
113.8
1968
First quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
Qj FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN C U R R E N T DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
1967
142.2
142.6
148. 1
151.8
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
274. Final sales 275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bii. dol.}
bil. dol.}
+8.2
+10.6
+10.2
+13.2
.
E
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
280. Compensation
of employees
282. Proprietors'
income
284. Rental income
of persons
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
217.6
220.9
225.3
225.4
+3.1
+5.6
+1.7
+6.7
420.1
430.9
441.4
449.7
62.1
61.2
61.1
60.8
19.6
19.8
20.1
20.3
151.9
158.3
157.7
160.0
+4.2
+1.5
+4.4
+5.6
230.7
234.2
235.5
235.9
+4.7
+1.8
+3.4
+3.9
456.2
461.1
470.7
481.7
60.8
61.7
62.6
62.3
20.6
20.8
20.9
21.0
166.4
168.9
173.7
176.6
+1.9
+6.8
+5.1
+7.4
246.5
250.4
256.1
256.4
-0.3
+3.1
+2.1
+3.1
495.1
507.0
519.8
532.3
63.2
63.6
64.1
64.1
21.1
21.2
21.2
21.4
181.6
185.5
187.8
+4.8
+4.9
+7.6
259.7
264.1
267.4
+1.8
+2.1
+3.1
546.0
558.2
571.9
64.6
66.5
67,3
21.5
21.6
21.7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "pttt preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA". not available.
ItCII
DECEMBER
1969
67
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PINATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
Mil
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Q SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
288. Net interest
290, Gross saving
292. Personal
saving
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valu*
ation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)
bil. dol)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
i
296. Capital consumption
allowances
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol,)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter. —
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
81.5
32.1
82.5
83.7
21.0
21.8
22.8
121.0
126.3
123.5
128.8
31.2
31.6
37.7
26.2
26.8
26.9
29.6
62.5
63.5
64,4
65.3
+2.7
•+-4.7
-*0.6
-3.8
78.3
78.3
79.1
81.1
23.5
24.3
25.1
25.9
117.5
113.6
119.9
125.6
40.0
37.7
40.7
43.1
24.8
24.1
24.6
25.5
66.8
6?.9
69.2
70.4
-16.0
-14.6
-13.4
82.5
88.2
90.6
90.3
26.7
27.5
28.4
29.3
120.5
128.8
129.1
135.4
39.9
42.3
33.2
38.0
20.4
24.1
25.6
23.6
71.7
73.0
73.7
74.6
-U.5
-10.8
-3.5
-0.9
89.5
89.2
r88.8
29.8
30.3
30.9
138.5
142.7
rlS0.2
32.5
33.3
43.1
22.3
21. M
r21.7
75.9
77.2
78.6
110.9
rt6,9
19.9
29.6
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-U.I
1968
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
KM
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; u pw, preliminary;
e" T estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
u
68
DECEMBER 1969
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
*1. Average work* 4. Nonagricultural
week of production placements, all
workers, manufac- industries1
turing x
Year
and
month
(Hours)
(Thous.)
2. Accession rate,
manufacturing1
*5, Average weekly
initial claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
program 52
(Per 100 employees)
(Thous.)
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)
49. Nonagricultural
job openings un»
filled1
46. Index of help*
wanted advertising
in newspapers
(Thous.)
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February
March
41.0
40.3
40.5
512
500
492
4.6
4.3
4.1
196
231
256
1-3
1.5
1.7
395
379
366
191
April
May
June
40.5
40.4
40.4
485
481
483
4.2
4.6
4.5
259
236
231
1.5
1.4
1.4
353
351
352
185
184
184
July
August
September
40 5
478
4 4
^50
181
Lfil
L.&1
L L
L ^
231
212
?17
14
AO 7
1
-3
OCJ,
1
"3
361
1 37
1 A7
40.7
476
4.5
/.O 7
A.O 7
A.71
47*5
L %
220
209
4 4
204
January
February
March
40 2
40.7
40.8
478
471
206
196
194
13
481
L 5
4.5
4.1
April
May
June
40.1
40.9
40.9
487
475
486
4.7
4.6
4.5
40.9
40.7
41.0
520
477
478
40.9
40.8
40.8
January
February
March
40 8
October
November
December
1.3
12
12
189
184
358
"ViA,
187
187
348
188
1.3
1.3
359
363
371
191
191
194
193
195
194
1.1
1.3
1.1
380
394
386
197
197
197
4.7
4.6
4.7
189
199
194
1.2
1.2
1.2
375
367
376
204
208
218
466
454
443
4.8
4.6
4.7
188
190
190
1.2
1.1
1.1
374
372
373
223
222
225
40.6
40.1
40.9
448
459
431
4.9
4.6
4.6
179
186
184
1.1
1.1
1.2
372
375
36'5
224
230
231
April
May
June
40.8
40.7
40.7
452
427
460
4.9
4.8
5..0
E>176
180
201
B> i.o
1.1
377
387
383
233
232
228
July...
August
September
40.7
40.6
40.8
446
427
426
4 8
L 5
4.8
197
196
201
^5ft
*L4.
October
November
December
40.5
P40.5
405
P393
P4.8
(NA)
202
214
1968
July
August
September
..
October
November
December
1969
1.1
12
1 1
1.2
rjrjrj
Q;,A
pi. 2
r343
(NA)
n^A.7
f
yji
01 C
£<£t4
OQ C
O/ <35
(G\
0017
^7
T.OOO
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated'by @>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93) current low values are indicated by
IR>
Seriesnumbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "shortlist" of indicators (chart B8). The V" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; a ' , anticipated;
an
Aeries0 that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 1, high value (41.6) reached in Feb. 1966: Series
4, high value (586), in May 1962; Series 2, high value (5.2), in Mar. 1966; Series 49, high value (437), in July 1966. ''Data,
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published "biy source agency.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1969
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
ffl
TIMING CLASS ....
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
(Ann. rate, bil,
man "hours)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
(Thous.)
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs x
(Percent)
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Percent)
i]
44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
1967
January
February
March
131.38
130.64
130.73
65,342
65,379
65,459
70, 137
70, 188
69,935
3.7
3.7
3.7
2.3
2.4
2.6
1.8
1.7
1.8
0.6
0.6
April
May
June
130.36
130.74
131.10
65,469
65,563
65,747
70,144
69,804
70,407
3.8
3.9
3.9
2.6
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.6
0.6
0.6
July
August
September
131.16
131.77
131.98
65,799
66,016
66,003
70, 649
70,721
70,929
3.9
3.8
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
October
November
December . . . .
131.75
133.02
132.79
66,083
66,600
66,734
71,023
71,135
71,293
4.2
3.8
3.7
2.3
2.2
1.8
1,8
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
January
February
March
131.60
71,124
71 566
71, 786
3.6
3.7
3.7
2.3
2.3 2.2
17
17
1.7
0 6
0 6
133 . 53
66,720
67 165
67,286
April
May
June
133.54
134.21
134.75
67,466
67,550
67,816
71, 737
72,027
72, 156
3.5
3.6
3.7
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.6
1.6
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
July
August
September
135.24
135.57
135.75
67,945
68,088
68, 195
72, 195
72,222
72,349
3.7
3.5
3.6
2.3
2.3
2.1
1.6
1.6
1.6
0.6
0,5
0.5
October
November
December .
135. 89
135.83
136.19
68,427
68,664
68,875
72,477
72, 682
72,923
3.6
3.4
3.3
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
January .
February
March
137.07
137.08
138.44
69, 199
69,487
69,710
73,477
73,848
74,035
3.3
|R> 3-3
3.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.4
1.4
|H)1.4
0.4
0.4
(H) 0.4
April
May
June
138.42
139.15
139 . 43
69,789
70, 013
70,300
73,941
73,460
73,966
3.5
3.5
3.4
1.5
1.5
3.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1 QQ ;,/.
7O P/.7
7A
ni
A
jt, .0
2 f\
f
j ~\
2.2
i A
e
OO
0 • 3<"
O OK
2 2
'1 7
•n? ^
P^O
1 ^
2.3
0.6
1968
133 . 29
0.6
1969
July
August
September
October
November
December
fu\) J-^
1AO • 1
HH
-LoA
*»1 ^Q o
ff7{
rxjjy.
70 ^nn
r
von
f u j QQH
J?u
r!3Q 78
wiqg gi
ItfS :K70 £>L2
p7Q 521
Wl
CCQ
74, 669
74 993
fu\ 7S 068
3 OC
4 .0n
3 9
0
L
2.0
& 2.0
2 1
1 t;
JU>
i ,n
1
(
0 ^
O e
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by (H) ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)F current low values are indicated by
[H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back ©f the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; V, anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
70
DECEMBER 1969
ICO
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
TIMING CLASS ....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Production
*20G\ Gross na- *205, Gross national product
tional product
in current dol=
in 1958 dollars
lars
(Ann. rate,
bit. doL)
1967
January
February
March..
April
May
June
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive Income
*47. Index of
industrial production
(1957-59-100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales
(Mil. dol.)
57, Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
*54, Sales of
retail stores
(Mil, dol.)
774.2
666.5
158.3
156.7
156.6
6L3.8
614.9
617.9
162.7
161.4
161.2
88,078
87,323
87,632
765.2
783.5
670.5
156 7
155.6
155.n
619.3
621.2
626. T
161 2
160.9
161.7
87 656
88,016
89,184
780.2
630.4
635.2
637.8
163.2
165.0
165.1
88, 508
89,967
90, 113
792.6
26 325
26,298
26,899
25,828
25,478
25,758
2*5 9L.O
25 966
26 488
July .
August
September
300.4
678.0
156.4
158.3
156.8
October
November
December
816 1
683.5
157.2
159.8
162.1
639-0
645.6
653.0
165.0
168.4
170.2
89,072
90, 770
92,147
806.6
26,129
26 396
26 545
835.3
693.3
161.2
162.0
163.0
656.3
664.6
671.9
170.4
173.6
174.3
93,184
93,758
94,463
833.6
27,043
27,449
27,996
April
May
June
358.7
705.8
162.5
164.2
165.8
674.2
680.2
685.9
174.3
177-1
177.9
94,552
96,069
97,423
848.8
27,791
28,158
28,320
July
August
September
876.4
712.8
166.0
164.6
165.1
691.0
696.1
701.1
179.0
179.7
181.8
98,368
97,083
98,549
869.2
28,674
28,760
28,316
October
November
December
892 5
718.5
166.0
167.5
168.7
706.2
711.5
716.0
183.3
184.6
186.7
99,675
100,14.2
98, 671
882 . 0
28 697
28, 806
28,347
January
February
March
908.7
723.1
169.1
170.1
171-4
718.7
723.9
730.7
187.1
187.6
190.7
100, 137
101,390
101,510
902.1
28,989
29,289
28,916
April
May
June
924.8
726.7
.. .
171-7
172.5
173.7
735.3
740.0
746.1
192.1
193.1
195.3
102,352
103,232
104,127
917.9
29,442
29,386
29,371
H>174.6
174.3
173.9
751.4
757.5
760,7
196.0
198.1
198.6
104,201
104,644
r!05,903
S> 932.6
29,090
29,346
r29,259
xO.73.1
P171.1
r763.7
[H>p766.9
H>rl98.9
p!98.4
(H>pl06,72.5
(MA)
1968
January .
February
March
1969
July
August
September
ED 942 8
October
November
December
H> 730.6
...
[H> r29,605
p29,346
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated'by H> • for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14,39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
IH>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; a ' , anticipated;
and"NA", not available.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1969
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business
Pntprnr I^P^
New Investment Commitments
*12. Index of net
business formation
13. Number of new
business incorporations
(1957-59-100)
(Number)
Year
and
month
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil.dol.)
(1957-59-100)
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil.dol.)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil. dol.)
1967
5.92
6,13
6.16
5.72
23.54
126
143
149
5.07
5.02
4.98
16,760
17,627
17,799
24.04
25.30
25.77
138
154
164
6.00
6.03
6.40
5.72
5.08
5.09
5.38
lA ?00
2A 00
25 88
25 18
1AQ
lift
5 82
6
/L?
168
6 24
6 57
6 43
K
165
171
168
166
6.66
6.42
6.43
5.74
18,168
25.68
25.85
28.06
5.37
5.50
26.84
26.81
28.00
166
152
169
6.50
6.51
6.67
5.80
113.8
17,223
18,014
17,974
5.47
5.38
5.38
112.8
112.7
114.5
18,659
18,796
19,197
27.37
27.17
26.70
164
172
160
6.20
6.62
7.20
5.74
5.49
5.45
5.97
19,530
187
192
6.96
7.85
6.59
5.71
6.03
1 £><2
7 2O
200
Ift^
179
January
February
March
102.2
103.2
303.3
lf! , 987
16,244
April ... .
June
103.7
105.0
108.1
July
August
September
108 4
110 7
110,3
17 674
18 118
October
November
December
110.6
112 7
113.8
18,000
113.5
May
16,703
23.94
24.15
18, 403
5 35
5.31
1968
January
February
March
i:L4.7
April
May
June .
July
August . .
September
119.0
119.1
20 Oil
121 2
on QA6
26.92
27.33
28 38
October
November
December
1 oq Q
y\ ?Q^
30 28
12^ L
12S ^
21 "KS
20 292
29 ?2
29 ?ft
12*i 2
[H) 125 8
123.2
20 ^7A
22 199
C Q9
8 18
7 2Q
7 79
6 51
6 09
6 24
6 63
1969
January . ,
February. .
March
29 68
POL.
7 98
?fK
21,353
30 48
29.70
182
7 84
7.50
123.9
123.1
123 o 6
23,467
23,230
23,711
30.94
30.00
29.17
183
210
186
8.26
8.01
7-85
July
August
September
124 6
rl24 1
r!23 0
oq 771
q-|
r22 991
October
November
December
p!23.5
(NA)
April
May
June
r9? "1^,1
rn\ D24 . 487
(NA)
rvy
on ;.#
fO)
32 14
i An
luS?l
i!/^-1-A0
173
r31.70
1 QC
p30.57
178
6 65
6 ?0
6 51
6.41
7-49
7.10
6 43
6.53
7 76
7 An
8 6
(ED - 5
6 35
6
fu\ P
n7
JH/
f • 77
l (
9J
QK
IH; 7fo3
f«j\
r8 00
p7.65
1'6 L.5
j)6 42
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [H>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
B>.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and"NA", not available.
^•This is a copyrighted aeries used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
72
DECEMBER 1969
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
New Investment Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment Commitments
Investment Expenditures
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings1
Year
and
month
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)
7. New private
nonfarm housing
units started
(Ann. rate, thous.)
96. Manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
*29> Index of new
private housing
units authorized by
local building
permits
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59-100)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil. dol.)
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(3)
1967
January
February
March
49.09
57.84
56.14
1,079
1,132
1,067
83.1
78.9
81.9
77.36
77.02
76,04
Apri I
May
June
58.27
54.72
62.30
1,099
1,254
90.7
91.1
97.9
75.88
76.52
77.31
July
August
September
56.72
61.66
60.45
1,356
1,381
1,415
96.4
99.4
102.3
77.82
77.94
77.94
55.42
63.17
64.08
1,478
1,567
1,235
106.9
102.2
116.7
78.82
79.13
80.58
64.51
61.39
66.61
1,430
1,499
1,479
97.2
120.0
121.4
80.49
80.59
April
May
June
47.09
66.96
66.35
1,562
1,345
1,348
113.7
106.9
107.0
82.24
July
August
September
71.65
66.15
61.59
1,507
1,496
1,570
107.7
107.8
116.4
79.68
October
November
December
79.63
69.70
71.47
1,541
1,705
1,492
115.2
119.1
122.3
81.89
H>r94.43
69.98
63.50
E> 1,845
1,664
1,567
117.2
123.4
118.7
84.43
84.99
April
May
June
65.82
85.60
80.37
1,548
1,495
1,446
[0)125.5
86.46
H)86.88
July
August
September
73.70
71-96
65-87
1,349
1,370
rl,522
102.6
104.0
100.4
86.37
85.98
86.38
85.75
63.49
rl,359
pl,267
r98.9
P96.8
r86.29
p85.82
.. .
.. .
October
November
December
1,214
61^65
76.75
76.90
75.53
61.50
74.67
74.92
76.28
6o!90
76.64
77.90
78.58
62!70
76.79
77.92
79.94
64i?5
80.77
80.79
80.59
62! 60
81.59
80.32
80.86
63^20
80.09
82.40
85.08
65)90
86.15
88.21
85.46
68 '.90
90.00
91.42
90.31
70)26
88.84
89.84
91.86
D72!45
r91.20
r94.24
[H>r99.50
ra73.30
P94.07
(NA)
20 [42
20.25
20^42
20.41
1968
January
February
March
81.75
19.01
81.90
80.97
i
is! 93
80.18
80.57
82.43
84.07
19^44
20.02
1969
January
February
March
.
October
November
December
110.6
112.0
85.16
85.91
20.48
2l! 52
[g)p22.'26
(3)
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
ndicated'by H> • for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93) current low values are indicated by
fH)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationsh ps or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; e , estimated; a , anticipated;
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. ¥. Dodge Division.
2
Data for 1st quarter 1968 to date are not comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,11 page
iii, August 1969 issue. aData for 1st and 2d quarters, 1970, are a76.85 and a78.25, respectively.
ltd*
DECEMBER 1969
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
ffl
^^M
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
1967
January
....
February
March.
245. Change in *31. Change in
business
book value of
tnfg. and trade
inventories1
inventories,
total 1
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot,)
bil. dol.)
+9.Q
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
Inventories
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher 1
inventories
(Percent
reporting)
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Production
materials, companies reporting
commitments 60
daysor longer®1
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries®1
(Percent
reporting)
48
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods,
book value
(BiLdol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bit. do!.)
na.in
+ 12.0
48
+5.7
+5.0
45
46
+2.6
+0.4
+0.6
72
67
68
51
38
-0.63
-0.34
-0.98
138.66
139.0?
25.43
25.68
25.82
26.41
26.36
26.22
April
May
June
+3.4
+6.6
+3,0
-0.7
37
40
43
-1.6
-0.4
-0.9
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.17
+0.65
+0.79
,139.62
139.87
13941
July
August
September
+5.6
+6.8
+4.0
40
42
44
+1.4
+0.2
-2.2
61
66
61
41
43
44
+0.50
+0.12
i-O.Ol
140 .;»?
+7.8
140.^4
X4i.;ut
26.43
26.61
26.64
October
November
December
+9.5
+2.5
+13.1
+14.6
45
46
54
+0.1
+0.6
+0.3
62
63
64
50
51
48
+0.88
+0.31
+1.45
141.39
1A2.48
143.69
26.63
26.70
26.81
+1.6
+4.0
+8.5
+4.1
55
53
52
-0.5
+1.2
+0.9
64
61
64
50
55
54
-0.09
+0.10
+1.16
144.03
144.74
145.-*
26.97
27.09
April
May
June
+9.9
+15.9
+15.9
+8.5
51
55
59
+4.0
+4.7
+1.7
68
64
67
52
52
52
+0.48
-0.34
-0.93
346.40
347.73
348,44
27.35
27.59
27.64
July
August
September
+7.2
-t-6.4
+10.2
+9.9
59
55
40
+3.5
+2.0
-0.9
68
66
60
56
46
46
-1.29
+0.49
+0.40
34S.S7
249.82
150.65
27.79
28.15
23.44
+16.4
42
+1.9
+9 8
+11 2
/,/,
LI
2 2
+0 6
62
60
60
52
60
56
+1.32
+0.54
+1.64
152,02
152.03
153.76
28.64
28.92
29.13
+3.9
+15.0
43
47
49
-0.4
-0.4
1-4 0
57
58
63
62
61
61
+0.36
+0.56
+0.16
154,09
155,34
156 40
29.08
29.41
29.61
49
52
50
-hi 3
+2.8
-1 1
65
64
66
68
69
70
1-1.30
+O.42
-0.97
157,48
158,, 60
159 „ 26
29.98
30.41
30,45
66
68
66
+0 46
-0 39
+0 39
160 63
161.66
r 162 .73
30 66
30 ^6
31 10
65
62
r-0.09
p-0.47
[R)pl64,17
(NA)
IH> 31.21
(NA)
1968
January
February
March
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March. .
. .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+10 5
+6.6
+12.8
+12.9
+6.9
+13.5
+7.9
+16 4
C1
+1 1
+10 7
-*-12 1
c-i
-O ^
r+12 9
48
+0 y
SQ
63
65
pt-17.3
(NA)
53
57
+3.5
(NA)
63
65
a?. 21
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [H) ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14r 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[H>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at tha back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
I
Seriea that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 245, high value (+19.8) reached!in 4th quarter 1966;
Series 31, high value (+20.0), in June 1966; Series 37, high value (63), in Nov. 1964; Series 20, high value (+5.7), in Aug. 1966;
Series 26, high value (75), in Oct. 1966; Series 32, high value (86), in Mar. 1966; Series 25, high value (+1.82), in Sept. 1966.
74
DECEMBER 1969
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive ComStock Prices
modity Prices
*23. Index of *19. Index of
stock prices,
industrial
500 common
materials
1
stocks®
prices©
Year
and
month
(1957-59-100) (1941*43=10)
Profits and Profit Margins
*16. Corporate profits
after taxes1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
22. Ratio of
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
indus.1
(Percent)
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all mfg.
corp.1
(Cents)
*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.1
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, indus.
commod.®
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods ®
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per unit
of gross prod.
(1958 doL)f
nonfin. corp.
(1957-59=100) 1957-59=100) (1957-59-100) (Dollars)
*62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February
March
106 8
105 2
102 5
April . . .
May
June
100 1
99 6
Q9 &
July
August
September . . . .
84 45
87 ?6
no
c O
QO Q6
92 59
91 L^
98 3
93 01
94.49
95 81
98.1
97 8
October
November
December
46 l
tJQ J.O
97-7
99.1
100.1
46 4
47.0
119
31.7
5 0
4.9
95.66
92.66
95.30
49.9
12.1
5-1
95.04
90.75
89.09
47.9
11.5
5.1
102 1
101 9
101 2
105 8
106 0
106 0
106 4
106 4
106 3
o 701
101 4
100 8
100 3
106 0
106 0
106 0
106 2
106 3
106 6
0 702
100 3
100.2
106 8
106.8
107 1
0.709
99-6
106 0
106.3
106.5
106 5
106.6
107 5
100.0
100.2
100.9
106.8
107.1
107.4
107.1
107.3
107.6
0.712
107.1
107.1
106.6
99.8
99.7
107.8
108.3
108.6
108.1
108.7
108.9
0.719
108.3
109.0
108.9
108 8
108.6
108.8
109 1
109 1
109.4
0.718
109 1
109 7
109 6
108 8
108 9
i D9 y
109 7
0 722
109 9
111 4
"Mi> n
109 7
110 0
110 3
110 5
104 2
1 OA
A
ins o
1 (U 7
10S 5
106 3
1968
January
February
March
99.8
99.5
100.1
April
May
June
95 67
Q& ^
96 1
July
August
September
.
. .
95 6
97 87
100 53
Q/. L
100 30
QL
98 11
im
J-U
l. . Q/
jj4
C>
o£ J.
-|
yo,
07 c
1 (Y\ "3
October
November
December
~\ nn 7
100.0
100 0
49 7
11 4
5 0
50 o
11 2
c -|
99 8
1 m 76
~\f)C
fjj\
-\ r>A
J.f)
99-5
99.8
*n A
n
i.
c -i
/ ft
98 ^
QA
1
yo.-L
98 *5
98 8
109 5
1 no Q
0 7^2
111 7
111 6
oe> 7
109 9
110 2
99 2
100 2
100.0
110 9
111 4
112.0
m
^
111 7
112.2
0.745
112 2
111.5
112.2
99.6
112.1
112 2
112.2
112.4
112 8
113.2
0.755
112.9
112.8
113.2
112 4
112 8
113.2
i n-a *;
J-k?.p
113 6
[H)r0.767
11^ 2
114.7
115.1
113.8
114.2
|H>plU.5
114.6
114.9
B>PU5.3
112 0
1969
10^ /,
January
February
March,
106 3
106 9
April
10Q ?
Mav
110 4
111 6
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
..
..
102 04
101 46
99 ^0
|H> 52 2
101 26
104 62
SI A
%
T 17 L
115.6
115.6
116.5
q
1 0
11 1
4 9
in *»
A
99 ~\L
QI
?4. m
/4% 1A
112 4
115 0
3
n
3
r cn
5
A
100 0
100.0
100 3
99 0
CT_
99 0
95.52
r99.0
P98.6
96.21
90. 40
113.9
rl!5.7
[H)pll6.5
NOTE 1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated'bylE)- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45 r and 93), current low values are indicated by
[H>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The Yf indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" f not available.
^•Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 23, high value (123.5) reached in Mar. 1966;
Series 22, high value (13.9), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 15, high value (5.8), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 17, high value
(105.2), in July 1966. ^Average for December 2, 9, and 16. 3Average for December 17, 18, and 19.DECEMBER 1969
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 MONEY AND CREDIT
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
1967
January
February
March
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
+3.40
33. Net change in
mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*113. Net change 112. Change in 1 110. Total pribusiness loans vate borrowing
in consumer
installment
debt
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of bus- rate, 30 days
ness failures® and over, total
installment loans
(Mil. doL)
+2.42
+1.42
+2.84
+7.04
-0.55
+6.83
56,756
+9.72
+9.77
+12.42
+10.69
108.17
113.45
119.32
^6. 00
+13.32
+13.56
-3.48
H> +11.76
+11.04
+12.6?
+15.31
+16.97
+1.08
+2.28
+3.84
+9.25
+1.63
+8.09
53,652
103.82
93.37
104.64
July
August
September
+13.44
+10.20
+9.12
+10.20
+8.76
+5.40
+17.75
+21.61
+21.20
+3.08
+4. 73
+3.76
+16.09
-9.19
-2.X5
66,796
72.55
108.90
93.94
October
November
December
1-7.68
-^8.28
+7.32
+5.40
+5.28
+3.36
+19.82
+21.32
+20.33
+3.79
+4.69
+4.31
+5.36
+2.66
+8.39
79,384
81.63
69.98
195-45
January
February
March
+4.32
+7.80
+7.44
+6.00
+4.56
+5.88
1+20.32
+19.27
+19.72
+4.79
+8.83
+7.46
+11.47
-2.39
+3.78
69,608
104.49
79-60
80.59
April
May ....
June
+4.56
+7.08
+5.76
+5.88
+11.04
+9.00
rt-19.08
r+21.64
r+18.13
+7.69
+8.78
+8.59
+19.57
+2.09
+5.78
70,236
80.11
91.41
74.66
July.. ,
August
September
+L2.48
+12.96
+9.36
+8.88
+8.88
+2.52
r+17.77
r+18.28
r+18.86
+10.28
+11.21
+8.58
+14.02
-4.25
+4.55
35/772
90.2?
65.77
58.65
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
+10.56
+13.80
+20.39
r+21.72
E>+25.37
D +11.36
+10.01
+9.30
+10.70
+11.27
+14.10
97,743
+12.12
+2.52
+11.28
+7.44
65.38
|R>58.65
83.41
-2.16
-0.96
+1.20
+6.L2
+3.12
+3.00
+20.90
+23.66
+20.09
+7.69
+9.58
+7.75
+17.10
+a.39
+5.35
90,956
75.03
39.99
84.12
-r3.96
-1.20
-0.60
+7.92
+1.20
+4.20
+21.96
+19.40
+22.78
+9.12
+10.15
+9.54
+16.16
+9.08
+7.25
0)99,288
118.76
92.6Q
91.92
-a. 40
+1.80
+16.56
+21.0?
i-r20.74
+7.46
+7.20
+8.38
+2.74
-5.26
+8.96
p80,552
p+18.44
+8.03
(NA)
+7.61
p-1.09
-1.44
[H)+16.68
+02.84
+n.28
April
May
June
(Percent)
l!s2
1.90
1.72
l!65
1.66
l!?4
1968
April
May
June
July...
August
September
-10. 56
-i.ao
-1.20
0.00
October
November
December
-1.56
ptl.56
+0.60
pt-3.60
(NA)
i!si
1.59
1.57
£56
IN) 1.47
l.'?i
i!si
1.60
1.64
112.73
62.83
73.70
i'.?o
116.44
127. Ik
X.69
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [R>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
LH). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p\ preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
serieo reached its high value (+21.11) in July 1966.
76
DECEMBER 1969
BCD
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS .
£J MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
Outstanding Debt
Money Market lnterest Rates
Resets
93. Free
reserves ©
LAGGING INDICATORS
114. Treasury
bill rate©
(Percent)
116, Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer
bond yields© bond yields@ bond yields© installment
debt
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
to^gg**
*72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Mil. dol.)
1967
January
February
March
-16
-4
+236
4-76
4.55
4.29
5.53
5.35
5-55
4.40
4.47
4.45
3-54
3.52
3.55
7A 191
76 309
76 546
60 936
61, 138
April
May
June
+175
+269
+297
3.85
3.64
3.48
5.59
5-90
6.06
4 51
4.76
4.86
3 60
3.89
3.96
76 636
76 826
62 345
62 209
62 580
July
August
September
4-272
+298
L ^1
6 06
6 30
6 33
4 86
4 02
L 95
L 99
/, 12
77 AO^
77 ftOT
7ft 114
4-268
October
November
December
4 28
L
45
Q 9Q
5 19
^ 1,1,
A. ^0
L 1L
5.01
6 53
6 87
6 93
5 36
+144
+38
-315
5.08
4.97
5.14
6.57
6.57
6.80
-413
-^26
5.36
6.79
7 no
no
7 .U2
4-160
L 59
+270
4.76
+107
January
February
March
April .
May
June
77 "W.A
7ft 4^n
*67. Bank
118. Mortgage
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential ©
loans, 35
cities©
(Percent)
6.13
Al 592
A9 Ql "1
A^ ftl 7
4 43
A? 592
64 053
65 102
5.18
5.16
5.39
4.29
4.31
4.54
79 579
80, 315
80 937
65 , 734
66 063
5.28
4.34
A 5/i
81,578
82 310
67,446
c;
i
cjq rv)£*
Lrt
bft {(J2
6 62
6.46
6 35
6 29
5 95
6 44.
6 51
C
QC
A? 9AA
78 821
79 180
(Percent)
A
tn.
o.pj
A An
6 63
6 65
5 96
A 77
6 81
1968
o f *i
July
August
September
October
November
December
5 62
C 1
-J4-L
5 o4
An
65 363
A7 3OA
4.5U
;. qq
4OJ
A 5*1
A ?ft
c>q e>d'3
°J t OO-3
ft/ ftl 7
Aft 1 7ft
C>C
AQ 22^
-226
c oa
c TQ
6 91
A 5A
c no
— 1QO
-1*32
5 20
6 69
5 no
-167
5 ^
6 88
c HA
CQO
Aft AQ^
J.Q
7f .UU
on
5 2L
^ ^A
2OO
A A9
c
A An
70 264
71
r^., ^QA
pjjo
-"310
«5
Q2
7 28
5 66
ftA A7Q
ft7
^
0 f ,*31
^-LJ
4 82
88 088
72 3AA
January
February
March
-480
6 18
6 16
6 08
7 29
7 QO
c 7J
A
A
ft5
9A
Aft 79Q
ftQ ^^7
9O 17?
70 ;. 1 O
7A AQft
74 A74
April
May
June
-844
6 15
6 08
6.49
7 54
7 62
8.04
90 93?
91 779
92 574
76 659
77 176
77 008
7 on
7 m
^
7 . 1Jo
ft nA
ft n*;
ft ^A
6 07
A n2
A "32
A nn
6 26
8.46
E>8.94
6.27
E>6.52
6.09
(H)6.30
_OJ
C
6 81
6 78
6 83
6.94
6 84
rtrv*)
5 • OQ
<?
r/"i
6.36
fMA'i
\NAJ
7.52
6
ftQ
A An
7( .4^
J CJ
7f • J?
7*^
72ft
2O
7 .-C7
•7/.po
QA
7
Cf)
1969
-596
-701
[fft -1 102
-1 064
July
August
September
1 n7A
October
November
December
r-992
p-1,009
Q; £
V4t>
(*q-|
7.04
0)7.19
7 76
5 86
6 05
5 84
5 26
5 85
5 19
5 3^
6.05
5.76
5 75
QO
yj
,"I lyo
7A
Aft7
(Oj O&f
OQ
7QA
Q)
/ Ql
77
/ nc
f f j4U5
77 oon
Qf.
V4 , 4V4
H> 95, 163
U
(NA)
7f O^
?2
8 05
7 ftA
8 06
8 nA
S .qc
J?
8 .36
8.
? Jo
A
8 40
Q/
rto
8 .82
78,275
S>P78,395
^Mi'i
^I\IA;
7 QQ
E>8.83
8.48
[H)8.48
NOTE1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by (R)- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 1-4, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
ED
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The Yr indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1969
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
Q COMPOSITE INDEXES
Year
and
month
810. Twelve
leaders, reverse
trend adjusted 1
(series 1, 5, 6 r
10, 12, 16, 17,
19,23,29,31,
113)
(1963-100)
820. Five
coinciders,
estimated aggregate economic activity
(series 41, 43,
830. Six
(aggers (series
44, 61, 62, 67,
71,72)
47, 52, 56)
(1963-100)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment adjustments
(series 1,2, 3,
5)2
(1963=100)
(1963-100)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12, 29)
(1963-100)
815. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 223, 25,
31,37)
(1963=100)
816. Profitabil- 817. Sensitive
financial flows
ity (series 16,
17, 19)2
(series 33,85,
112,113)
(1963-100)
(1963-100)
1987
January
February ....
March
126.3
124.9
125.0
141.2
U0.9
141.5
150.0
149.5
149-7
106.4
103.0
101.8
103,1
103.3
103.4
103.2
101.6
100.7
113. IJ
113.6
113.3
95.8
97.1
97.9
April
June
125.6
127.0
123.7
HI. 4
U1.3
142.3
149.3
149.6
150.3
102.3
103.8
103.8
104.5
105.5
107.9
99.5
100.2
100.2
114.3
114.4
113. a
95.5
93.4
99.3
July
August
September
129.0
131.5
131.6
143.1
144.5
U3.7
150.6
150.4
151.4
103.8
105.0
104.9
107.4
109.3
108.9
99.9
100.3
99.5
114.5
114.7
115.0
100.3
9B.7
97.6
October
November
December .
132.7
134.4
136.8
143.2
146.3
149.0
152.0
152.9
154.8
104.9
105.7
105.7
109.8
110.1
112.5
100,9
102.0
104.2
115. &
115.6
116.5
99.7
100.0
99.3
January
February
March
134.6
137.3
137. S
149.9
151.7
152.9
157.2
159.0
159.7
104.6
105.8
105.3
110.4
112.6
113.0
102.0
102.3
102.8
115.4
114.0
114.1
100.5
100.4
April
June
137.9
139.1
140.1
153.7
154 o 9
156.3
162.4
163.7
164.4
105.9
106,3
106.8
111.3
111.1
112.2
102.7
101.8
100.9
116.0
116.5
117.4
102.6
102.3
101.7
July..
August
September
HI. 6
U2.0
143.6
157.3
157.8
159.0
164.1
166.7
167.7
107.1
106.2
107.0
113.8
114.9
116.1
100.1
101.6
100.1
117.4
115.3
116.7
[H)104.3
101.5
99.6
October . .
November
December
147.3
U7.2
143.6
160.2
162.1
163.0
163.6
170.7
173.7
107.3
107.1
107.2
118.8
UL7.6
119.1
102.1
101.9
102.9
117.3
113.7
119.0
102.1
103.2
ri03.3
January
February
March
148.6
150.7
150.3
164.3
166.0
167.0
176.4
179.1
18,1.2
107.7
106.1
107.1
119.0
119.9
117.9
102.0
104.5
104.3
113.5
119,2
3,18.5
101.6
10.1,7
99.6
April
152.7
152.8
151.7
167.6
168.9
170.9
108.5
107.6
107.1
[©119.9
117.9
117.7
102.8
100.8
101.5
152.1
151.7
i)153.6
170.9
172.3
rl?1.4
106.6
106.3
106.6
117.9
117.5
US. 4
105.9
105.9
104.3
106.6
106.2
107.2
113.6
119.6
118.0
July
August
September
182.8
184.7
137.3
r!90.0
1-193.7
r!94.9
116. 9
rH5.5
rI15.6
98.2
x97.5
P99.9
October
November
December
r!53.4
P152.5
r!72.4
E> 1*73.0
r!96.3
E)pl97.1
p!06.1
(MA)
rll?.7
pii6.4
rI07.3
P107.5
rH6.G
pllS.S
P99.2
May
1968
May
100.6
1969
May
June
(MA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14,39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
(H) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are sliown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk ( it! )are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary !'e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators. For historical
data prior to reverse trend adjustment, see series 311 in appendix C of the September 1969 issue.
3
Series that reached their high values prior to 196? are as follows: Series 813, high value (109.4) reached in March 1966;
Series 815, high value (110.1) reached in March 1966; Series 316, high value (120.1) reached in February 1966.
78
DECEMBER 1969
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.doL)
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
b. Second
c. First
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Percent)
412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
416. Adequacy 435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
sentiment
ity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
(First quarter
excessive
(Percent)
1966=400)
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
102.9
101.2
103.1
99.9
135.0
135.6
137.4
140.7
80.1
81.1
81.7
82.8
30
29
23
22
40
40
41
38
92.2
94.9
96.5
92.9
145.2
149.5
152.7
156.6
83.8
85.6
87.1
88.6
22
22
21
16
35
35
40
42
95.0
92.4
92.9
92.1
159-2
161.8
167.1
ral66.7
90.3
18
19
22
43
38
39
ra96.4
95.1
91.6
86.4
79-7
al68.1
a97.9
(Percent)
1967
61.65
61.50
60.90
62.70
101.5
100.1
102.6
64.75
62.60
63.20
65.90
100.1
103.2
102.7
102.0
100.5
102.7
104.5
63.90
70.20
72.45
ra73-30
104.0
102.6
103.3
100.9
101.4
(NA)
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
99.0
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
98.9
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
99.7
(NA)
92.2
94.2
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
a76.85
a78.25
AGGREGATE SERIES»Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reportinga. No change b. Higher
income
in income
c. Lower
income
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
a. Actual
b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly)
less decrease in income
(Percent)
(Percent)
52.4
55.2
53.9
54.2.
35.4
32.9
34.2
33.3
11.2
11.0
11.0
11. fe-
52.3
47.5
48.1
51.2
36.0
40.9
4O.3
38.0
16.0
15.8
17.4
16.2
10.1
10.9
11.0
10.1
9.9
52.9
53.0
50.8
50.7
36.4
35-9
37.3
37.4
10.0
10.5
10.8
11.1
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new cars
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)
2-quarter moving average
b. Actual
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)
d. Anticipated
c. Anticias percent of
pated
(Ann, rate, actual
mil, cars)
(Percent)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
7.3
7.5
6.8
6.8
7.4
7.4
7-1
6.8
11.2
10.2
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.0
7.4
7.9
8,7
7.8
7.1
7.7
8.3
8.3
7.4
7.6
7.6
96
92
92
19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7
13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2
5.5
5.8
6.5
5.5
8.1
8.4
8.1
7.9
8.3
8.2
7.8
7.6
7.9
8.3
99
92
96
16.5
18.1
18.6
17.6
11.3
12.0
13.0
11.6
5.2
6.1
5.6
6.0
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
8.0
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ItCII
DECEMBER
1969
79
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D440. New orders, manufacturing1
Actual
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade1
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Actual
Anticipated
D44B. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade1
0444. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade1
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
71
72
69
72
82
82
80
81
65
65
64
69
75
74
76
76
71
70
72
74
80
82
82
82
78
78
79
80
80
83
82
81
70
73
72
74
74
80
78
73
79
82
82
84
82
86
86
84
81
80
76
82
85
83
80
70
74
68
78
79
77
76
80
84
73
86
88
86
83
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
58
58
58
58
60
60
60
5?
60
60
58
60
60
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter,.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
60
56'
60
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
60
60
60
59
59
60
58
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
76
74
70
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
and trade 1
Actual
Anticipated
D462. Manufacturing1
Actual
Anticipated
D464. Wholesale trade1
Actual
Anticipated
D466. Retail trade1
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
68
66
65
64
65
66
63
62
72
72
76
78
75
72
70
72
70
70
72
73
74
72
68
70
74
74
80
82
76
73
69
74
74
76
76
72
7B
68
68
70
70
63
66
67
66
78
80
81
84
76
79
78
78
74
76
78
80
74
76
75
76
81
82
82
85
78
82
78
78
88
92
a?
71
70
70
66
68
66
66
84
84
85
78
80
80
81
82
80
82
75
79
78
80
85
85
86
79
80
80
80
90
84
84
84
86
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
ao
04
87
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
81
84
86
as
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
62
78
79
77
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r" indicates revised; "p"» preliminary;
V t estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1(
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Ine.
80
DECEMBER
1969
BUI
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
061. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries
Year
and
quarter
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)
a. Actual
carloadings
c. First
anticipations
b. Second
anticipations
(1-Q span)
D480. Freight carloadings©
(1-Q span)
480. Change in
freight carloadings©
b. Anticipations
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(Thous. of cars4-Q span)
1967
First Quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third Quarter
Fourth quarter
55.6
30.6
33.3
6l.l
50.0
41.7
44.4
50.0
53.1
52.8
58.3
44.4
10.5
42.1
78.9
73.7
66.7
38.9
55.6
55.6
63.9
55.6
69.4
83.3
63.9
47.2
80.6
55.6
31.6
68.4
68.4
57.9
73.7
63.2
73.7
68,4
-16
+29
+52
-9
83.3
66.7
69.4
83.3
75.0
63.9
63.9
72.2
50.0
69.4
50.0
(NA)
78.9
89.5
84.2
84.2
-9
-10
-5
42.1
31.6
78.9
52.6
-51
-88
-130
-88
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. . .
1970
75.0
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter. . .
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
DECEMBER
1969
81
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
month
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
(Mil. dol.)
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil. dol,)
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts
(Mil. dol.)
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
512. General imports, total
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59^100)
1967
January
February
March
+322
+366
+359
2,639
2,582
2,524
920
855
904
235
196
252
2,216
April
May
June
+410
+432
+398
2,608
2,549
2,582
1,005
961
793
215
220
218
2,198
2,118
2,184
July
August
September
+357
+421
+399
2,601
2,566
2,597
907
887
924
219
230
231
2,245
2,1452,198
October
November
December
+161
+275
-t-184
2 A.15
829
871
258
234
993
2 IS
2 2$L
2 396
a AQ3
January
February
March
+128
+184
-150
2 814
909
215
2 775
2 A39
1 007
1 314
260
252
April
May
June
+251
-15
+78
2,855
2,740
2,870
917
1,047
989
244
237
223
2,604
July
August
September
+133
+78
+260
2,858
2,950
3,211
914
988
923
246
240
256
2,725
2,872
2 951
October...November
December
-105
+89
+70
2,631
2 972
2 977
1,268
925
244
232
1 082
239
2,736
9 ftft3
9 QO&
January
February
March.
+75
-3*19
+215
2 297
3 196
83A.
1 391
1 118
242
260
222
2 6,^
April ...
May
June
+178
+16
•t-25
3 355
3 292
1 HO
1 222
248
254
3 213
1 ?"M
283
1 177
3 276
•3 igg
July
August
September
+105
+205
+271
q 170
3 381!
3 326
i *>~\ ^
X,-iX;>
1 239
rl 31?
9Q1
J) WOO
248
r276
•a T t>ri
October
November
December
r-flA?
r3 369
3 367
p249
(NA)
3 2?2
1,^14.
2 671
2 677
2,317
2,166
1968
2 687
2,592
2 S&8
2,735
2,792
1969
+•163
2 093
pi 340
(KA)
2 018
2 981
^ nAA
3 OSS
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
82
DECEMBER 1969
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
520. Liquidity balance
basis
522. Official settlements
basis
(Mil. dol.)
Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers
and errors and omissions
250. Balance on goods and
services, excluding military
grants
U.S. balance of payments
525. 1Liquidity balance
basis
(Mil. dol.)
527. Official
settlements
basis2
II. dol.)
(Mil. do!.)
(Mil, dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-600
-24
-426
-307
-344
-110
+481
+239
1,558
1,398
1,100
1,223
-2,158
-1,422
-1,526
-1,530
-1,902
-1,508
-619
-495
-1,711
1,361
1,451
1,404
961
-1,856
-1,781
-2,435
-2,649
-3,072
-2,170
-1,475
-1,378
+367
471
841
909
301
-1,035
-832
^1,048
+561
+712
-812
+66
iH-1,144
iH-1,236
rp-918
363
r303
P736
r-2,033
r-4,174
p-3,291
r+933
p-1,654
-984
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-330
-1,031
-1,688
-719
-71
-917
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter,.
-564
-379
+1,553
+9
-139
+862
+97
-850
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
r-1,670
r-3,871
rp-2,555
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
530. Liquid
liabilities to
to all
foreigners 3 ®
(Mil. dol.)
532. Liquid
534. U.S.
official
and certain
nonliquid lia- reserve
bilities to
assets^ ©
foreign official
agencies3©
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. do!.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers'under Military Grants
income on investment, military
Goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted *
transactions, other serv., total
252. Exports
253. Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
540. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
1966
28,738
28,819
29,432
29,779
16,004
16,305
15,797
16,043
15,026
14,958
14,876
14,882
10,562
10,667
10,936
11,196
9,004
9,269
9,836
9,973
7,218
7,194
7,413
7,564
6,595
6,676
28,990
29,620
31,211
33,119
16,295
17,424
17,819
19,402
13,855
U,274
14,649
14,830
11,461
11,484
11,577
11,667
10,100
10,033
10,173
10,706
7,688
7,723
7,669
6,660
6,465
6,542
7,601
7,154
32,482
32,514
33,493
33,617
18,407
16,994
17,493
18,576
13,926
14,063
14,634
15,710
11,934
12,668
13,344
12,653
11,463
11,827
1^,435
12,352
7,941
r34,930
r39,041
p42,650
rl6,913
rl6,010
Pl7,734
15,758
16,057
pl6,743
11,913
rl4,245
pU,548
11,550
r!3,942
pl3,812
7,469
9,588
rp9,560
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
6,027
3,344
3,473
3,523
3,632
3,104
3,241
3,773
3,761
3,440
3,568
3,908
4,066
3,631
7,817
8,131
8,566
8,458
3,993
4,273
4,465
4,270
3,646
3,696
3,869
3,894
7,572
r9,591
rp9,232
4,444
r4,657
P4,988
3,978
r4,351
P4,580
6,165
2,977
3,297
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
3,552
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
8,395
8,879
8,383
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not availablei
2
3
4
Series 520 minus series 250.
Series 522 minus series 250.
Mount outstanding at the end of quarter.
Reserve
5
position at the end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of
Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
DECEMBER 1969
83
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Income on Investment, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Income on investments
Military transactions
Travel
542, U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
ments abroad
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil. dot.)
(Mil.dol.)
Transportation and other services
544. Receipts
546. Sales under 547. Military
545. Payments
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conexpenditures
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
abroad
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
548. Receipts
from
(Mil.dol.)
549. Payments
for
(Mil.dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1,482
1,557
1,573
1,640
479
503
569
591
379
389
411
411
644
676
666
671
198
219
202
210
877
925
975
987
1,285
1,308
1,337
1,371
977
1,000
1,031
1,048
1,612
1,580
1,801
1,879
584
591
580
607
416
391
416
423
701
841
9U
739
333
335
239
332
1,085
1,075
1,106
1,112
1,412
1,455
1,452
1,433
1,070
3,061
1,031
1,094
1,771
1,973
2,040
1,917
671
742
770
749
440
424
450
456
763
732
792
735
305
353
406
364
1,102
1,116
1,143
1,169
1,477
1,523
1,569
1,533
1,110
1,106
1,164
1,241
2,120
r2,151
p2,357
rl,086
pi,248
503
515
P540
•810
r844
p871
4,18
r334
P421
1,204
r1,208
pi,198
1,4C3
rl,657
pi,670
1,072
rl,213
pi,263
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS--Con.
Year
and
quarter
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Direct investments
560, Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil.dol.)
564. Foreign purchases 565* U.S* purchases
of U.S. securities
of foreign securities
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
575. Banking and
otter capital transactions, net
(Mil, dot.)
(Mil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
52
38
-113
110
728
934
917
1,060
173
520
107
109
322
80
87
-7
-1,063
-1,054
-789
-825
118
446
325
378
64
70
12
112
717
533
947
956
133
329
520
34
223
266
476
301
-1,121
-955
-961
-1,174
462
46?
-329
-199
251
5
23
41
472
1,009
1,262
283
839
1,116
1,115
1,290
311
164
337
455
-977
-359
-788
-366
230
245
96
577
237
r!69
928
rl,057
pl,095
1,373
r337
rp379
323
-891
r-1,346
P-1,351
r-579
P317
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
PUS
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p" preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
84
DECEMBER 1969
KCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month
601. Federal
600. Federal
surplus (+)or receipts, nadeficit (-) , na- tional income
tional income and product
accounts
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
{Ann. rate,
bil.doi.)
bil.doM
Defense Indicators
602. Federal
264. National
expenditures, defense purnational income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann, rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
647. New or648. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil.doi.)
1967
January
February
March
-12.0
1A7.5
159.5
69,, 9
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,1AO
1,903
3.01
3.32
3.07
3,364
3,930
3,034
April
May
June
-13.2
IAS. 3
161.4
71,.9
6,211
7,732
6,891
1,754
2,480
2,290
3.17
4.04
3.93
3,026
4,040
3,566
July
August
September
-13 !i
152! 8
165^3
73*0
5,928
7,003
7,479
1,633
1,925
2,958
3.60
2.99
3.36
3,545
3,690
3,720
October
November
December
-12 ".3
156^4
168 ! 8
74^6
7,449
6,565
6,331
2,735
2,173
1,846
3.98
3.64
4.36
3,626
3,308
3,479
4!i
165!?
174!l
76!l
7,033
7,615
6,208
2,360
2,865
1,985
3.51
3.86
5.07
1*60
1.31
2,887
3,445
3,124
-9is
170.8
180.3
77^9
6,765
7,441
6,929
2,161
2,299
2,077
4.43
4.01
2.96
1.47
2.27
2.06
3,488
4,203
3,067
-2\8
I8l!4
184^2
78^8
7,544
7,659
7,989
2,323
2,804
3,234
3.67
3-91
3.55
1.91
2.36
1.92
3,937
3,173
3,836
-0.1
187 .3
187! 4
79*3
7,520
7,286
6,603
2,298
2,520
1,959
4.41
3.89
4.20
2.38
1.95
2.31
3,903
3,373
3,821
+9.6
198 !l
188 [5
79^6
7,852
7,216
6,303
2,307
2,207
1,542
4.02
4.39
3.81
1.84
2.31
2.15
3,468
3,658
2,777
1893
78^5
6,340
6,279
5,993-
1,442
1,304
1,507
4.02
3.81
2.87
2.08
1.79
1.27
2,639
2,673
2,618
193.* 6
8C/.3
7,198
6,434
6,497
1,462
1,276
2,101
4.05
3.77
4.12
2.38
1.46
1.42
2,962
3,172
2,748
7,316
2,068
r4.06
P4.45
rl.79
P2.15
3,314
2,659
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
....
July
August
September
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
+13 ."6
202 '.3
July
August
September
r+7.2
r200.8
October
November
December
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
IM:
DECEMBER 1969
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
QH PRICE MOVEMENTS
Year
and
month
Wholesale price indexes
Consumer price indexes
781. All items® 782. Food
(1957-59-100)
783. Commodities less foods
784. Services® 750. All commod- 58. Manufactured goods ©
ities®
751. Processed
foods and
feeds
752. Farm products
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
in. 9
114.3
in. 5
in.o
in. 4
107.4
107.8
108.0
125.5
125.9
126.3
106.2
106.0
105.7
106.4
106.4
106.3
112.2
111.5
111.2
102.5
100.5
99.3
126.6
327.0
127.4
105.3
105.8
106.3
106.2
106.3
106.6
111.0
111.6
112.3
97. 2
100.1
102.7
1967
January . . ,
February
March.
1U. 8
115.0
April
May
June
115.3
115.6
116.0
115.1
108.4
108.7
108.9
July
August
September
116,5
116.9
117.1
115.2
115.8
115.6
109.2
109.6
110.1
127.7
128.2
128.7
106.5
106.1
106. a
106.8
106.8
107.1
112.0
111.9
111.9
101,1
99.1
9§.G
October
November
December .
1968
January
February
March
117.5
117.8
118.2
115.7
116.1
116.6
no. 7
110.4
110.9
129.1
129.6
130.1
106.1
106.2
106.0
107.1
107.3
107.6
111.7
111.5
111.7
98.3
97.6
99.7
118.6
119.0
119.5
117.2
117.5
118.2
111.3
111.7
112.1
130.8
131.3
132.1
107.2
108.0
108.2
108.1
108.7
108.9
112.1
113.1
113.6
loo. a
101. a
April
May
June...
119.9
120.3
120.9
118. 7
H9.3
119.1
112.2
112,5
113.0
132.5
133.0
133.9
108.3
108.5
108.7
109.1
109.1
109.4
114.1
114.4
113.9
101.7
102.8
102.6
July..
August
September
121.5
121.9
113.3
113.7
134.9
135.5
136.0
109.1
108.7
109.1
109.7
109.5
109.9
in. 6
122. a
119.2
119.5
120.0
114.6
114.5
102.1
101.2
102.7
136.6
137.4
138.1
109.1
109.6
109.8
110.0
110.3
110.5
X14.5
115.3
114.9
102.7
104.7
103.9
110.7
m. a.
115.7
116.1
117.1
105.3
104.5
106.2
in. 7
99.3
October... ,
November
December
1969
January
February .
March
122.9
123.4
123.7
120.8
121.0
121.6
in.o
m. 4
in. s
115.0
124.1
124.6
125.6
122.2
122.0
122.8
115.1
115.9
117.0
139.0
139.7
111.7
111.3
111.7
112.2
April
May
June
126.4
126.8
127.6
123.6
124.2
125.5
117.2
117.5
118.0
142.0
n2.7
143.3
111.9
112.8
113.2
112.8
113.2
112.4
118.6
120.2
120,7
105.1
109.6 '
111.3
July
August
September
128.2
128.7
129.3
125.8
126.4
127.1
118.2
118.4
118.8
113.3
113.4
113.6
113.5
113.6
113.9
120,7
121.1
ISO. 5
108.5
108.7
108.3
October
November
December
129.8
130.5
127.1
128.6
119.4
119.7
n4.o
ns.o
n6.o
n6.5
n7.2
in. 6
m. 9
121.7
152.4
109.5
102.8
no. 9
in.o
in.7
pllS.O
P115.3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification oniy.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; H p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
86
DECEMBER 1969
ICO
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level1
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter.....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
649.1
655.0
660.2
668.1
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
-11.5
-ll.l
-10.0
-11.5
637.6
643.9
650.2
656.6
$
666.5
670.5
678.0
683-5
663.1
669.6
676.2
682.9
-3.4
-0.9
-1.8
-0.6
693-3
705.8
712.8
718.5
689.6
696.4
703.3
710.2
-3.7
-9.4
-9.5
-8.3
723.1
726.7
730.6
717.2
724.3
731.4
-2.4
+0.8
-5.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
1
Based on a trend line of 3-1/2 percent per year through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to date.
DECEMBER 1969
87
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
1967
January
February
March...
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
851, Ratio,
inventories
to sa1es,manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods
854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposable personal
income
855. Ratio,
nonagriculturaljobopenings unfilled
to persons
unemployed
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1957-59-100)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
859. Real
spendable avg,
wkly. earnings,
nonagri. prod,
or nonsupv,
workers
(1957-59=100) (1957-59 dol.) (1957-59 dol.)
857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing©
(Percent)
8?!i
1.57
1.59
1.59
3.51
3.50
3.46
126.0
127.6
125.6
0.075
0.138
0.133
0.127
128!3
2.41
2.42
2.43
78.52
77.91
77.^9
6*.6
April
May ....
June
85 !6
1.59
1.59
1.57
3.53
3.50
3.48
124.3
124.6
123.3
0.676
0.121
0.118
0.117
129*6
2.42
2.42
2.43
77.72
77.79
77.^4
6.3
July..
August
September
84.*3
1.53
1.57
1.57
3.54
3.40
3.48
123.1
121.7
122.3
0.074
0.117
0.120
0.115
13o!6
2.43
2.44
2.43
78.11
78.23
78.36
6.1
October
November
December
84*.8
1.59
1.57
1.56
3.54
3.44
3.39
119.4
122.2
119.9
0.077
0.109
0.118
O.U9
13l! 1
2.43
2.44
2.45
77.94
78.49
78.16
5*6
p84!9
1.55
1.54
1.54
3.37
3.36
3.39
121.2
119.6
118.3
0.069
0.128
0.124
0.129
132^6
2.47
2.46
2.48
78.17
78.71
78.5?
'i.5
April .
May
June
p84!0
1.55
1.54
1.52
3.41
3.36
3.28
117-9
118.0
U7.5
0.072
0.137
0.140
0.132
134^1
2.47
2.48
2.48
78.29
78.55
78.63
'i.7
July...,
August
September
p84.0
1.51
1.54
1.53
3.17
3.38
3.24
117.3
116.3
117.7
0.056
0.129
0.132
0.132
134.4
2.48
2.49
2.49
78.39
78.52
78.94
5.4
P84*.2
1.53
1.53
1.56
3.19
3.22
3.38
117.0
120.1
119.4
0.063
0.134
0.140
0.143
135! 8
2.49
2.50
2.51
78.64
78.31
78.66
4^9
p84ls
1.54
1.53
1.54
3.22
3.18
3.21
118.9
118.7
118.5
0.053
0.141
0.143
0.134
135^6
2.51
2.50
2.49
78.52
78.05
78.31
5*6
poT.'s
1.54
1.54
1.53
3.24
3.26
3.17
120.0
121.8
122.0
0.053
0.133
0.138
0.139
134^5
2.48
2.48
2.48
78.20
78.25
78.27
'i.i
rp84.2
1.54
1.54
1.54
3.20
3.15
3.07
119.8
r!20.0
r!22 , 7
0.067
0.124
0.120
0.10?
p!34.*3
2.50
2.51
2.51
78.34
78.53
pl.54
(HA)
3.04
(NA)
1024.4
p!22,2
2.50
P2.50
r78.1B
P77.88
1968
January
February.
March
October
November
December ,
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September .
October
November
December
r 0.109
pO.124
78.03
5*6
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
DECEMBER 1969
KCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (21 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
D6. Vaiue of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
Oil- Newly approved capital appropriations,
NiCB(17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1967
January
February
March
69.0
7.1
76.2
9.5
11.9
11.9
40.0
54.3
32.9
34.3
34.3
38.6
47
53
April
May
June
45.2
23.8
•50.0
19.0
35.7
28.6
48.6
54.3
64.3
65.7
61.4
65-7
53
41
July .
August
September
73.8
59-5
61.9
76.2
61.9
38.1
40.0
72.9
42.9
74.3
91.4
70.0
53
59
October
November
December
35.7
76.2
38.1
73.8
69.0
21.4
60.0
54.3
74.3
71.4
7L4
68.6
41
41
1968
January.. .
February
March
1A.3
88.1
21.4
64.3
69.0
69.0
51.4
55-7
50.0
57.1
71.4
68.6
47
53
April
May
June
tt-3
88.1
66.7
35-7
76.2
88.1
40.0
54.3
51.4
68.6
68.6
80.0
65
59
July
August
September
33-3
38.1
$3.3
35.7
50.0
69.0
51.4
44.3
78.6
71-4
88.6
82.9
71
62
October
November
December
47.6
16.7
52.4
21.4
42.9
50.0
60.0
44.3
55.7
88.6
77.1
85.7
47
76
January
February
March
52.4
28.6
90.5
40.5
19.0
23.8
57.1
62.9
40.0
82.9
68.6
60.0
53
65
April
May
June
47.6
42.9
47-6
38.1
r38.1
r31.0
54.3
45.7
40.0
51.4
82.9
r68.6
59
p65
juiy
August
September
28.6
45.2
r57.1
P73.8
60.0
41.4
81.4
p60.0
P47
October
November
December
r26.2
P57.1
. ..
1969
37.1
P31.4
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; l-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are
placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
KCII
DECEMBER 1969
89
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
D34. Profits,
manufacturing,
FNCB (about 1,000
corporations)
1 -quarter span
1967
January . . .
February
March
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (77 industries)® 1
1-month span
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (4? areas)
1 -month span
9-rnonth span
AB
90.9
92.2
61,0
85.7
90.3
97.4
46,2
53.8
23.1
0.0
15.4
26.9
55.3
17.0
46.8
27.7
8.5
8,5
April
May ....
June
46
76.0
74.0
51.3
93.4
92.1
86.2
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
54.3
55.3
31.9
44.7
July
August
September
52
81.6
77.6
57.2
68.4
65.8
71.1
30,8
53.8
19.2
23.1
30.8
46.2
34.0
72.3
60.6
78.7
7B.7
66.0
October
November
December
59
32.2
7-9
71.1
52.6
46.1
50.0
46.2
46.2
61.5
38.5
30.8
30.8
38.3
74.5
46. 8
80.9
70.2
78.7
55
64.5
10.5
21.1
61.8
63.2
71.1
46.2
46.2
53.8
30.8
46.2
46.2
25.5
80.9
25.5
57.4
51.1
61.7
April
May ,.
June
45
94.7
83.6
80.3
76.3
82.7
85-3
46.2
53.8
50.0
53.8
61.5
73.1
63. a
51.1
53-2
38.3
51.1
74.5
July
August
September
56
48.7
17.8
86,7
93.3
97.3
81.3
46.2
65.4
57.7
76.9
57.7
76.9
57.4
40.4
63.8
36.2
66.0
76.6
October
November
December
1969
January
February . . . .
March
53
82.7
77.3
72.7
71-3
52.0
56.0
69.2
69.2
38.5
92.3
92.3
84.6
66.0
31.9
61.7
63.8
70.7
59.6
53
12.0
43.3
13.3
73.3
40.0
14.7
53.8
61.5
46.2
84.6
80.8
76.9
72.3
383
55.3
70.2
46.8
40,4
April
May
June
52
54.0
74.7
1.3
12.0
6,7
21.3
65.4
57.7
76.9
69.2
76.9
92.3
48.9
57.4
23.4
58,5
34.0
25.5
July
August
September
49
4.0
34.7
61.3
25.3
61.5
76.9
57.7
76.9
76.9
51.1
59.6
38.3
20.7
1968
January
February
March
October
November
December
72.7
68.0
3
46.2
50.0
38.5
S
29. a
45.7
31.9
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans; 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
*Based on 77 components through June 1967; on 76 components, July 1967 through August 1968; and on 75 components thereafter.
^Average for December 2, 9, and 16.
90
DECEMBER
1969
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year
and
month
D41. Number of employees on
nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)©
D54. Sates of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
9-month span
1967
January
February
March
80.0
35.0
40.0
50.0
41.7
43.3
29.2
20.8
43.8
45.8
29.2
27.1
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
39.1
43.5
69.6
91.3
95.7
April
May
June
40.0
36.7
65.0
36.7
40.0
40.0
52.1
16.7
50.0
29.2
41.7
41.7
47.7
54.5
47-7
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
82.6
87.0
91.3
56.5
July
August
....
September
41.7
66.7
46.7
51.7
L8:37
47.9
75-0
41.7
54.2
66.7
75.0
63.6
63.6
75.0
72.7
81.8
81.8
43.5
60.9
76.1
82.6
78.3
82.6
October
November . .
December
65.0
93.3
73.3
68.3
83.3
85.0
56.2
87-5
83.3
75.0
77.1
83.3
72.7
77.3
90.9
81.8
90.9
95.5
37.0
67.4
47.8
95.7
95.7
73.9
1968
January
February
March
68.3
75.0
65.0
96.7
86.7
86.7
37.5
70.8
75.0
77.1
83.3
75.0
90.9
84.1
68.2
90.9
95.5
90.9
73.9
65.2
82.6
82.6
91.3
91.3
April
May
June
66.7
66.7
85.0
86.7
85.0
76.7
41.7
70.8
79.2
83.3
70.8
79.2
72.7
63.6
61.4
75.0
84.1
81.8
26.1
60.9
65.2
87.0
91.3
87.0
July
August
September
63.3
81.7
58.3
78.3
81.7
75.0
66!?
75-0
75.0
70.8
68.2
70.5
72.7
84.1
81.8
86.4
63.0
58.7
30.4
78.3
47.8
78.3
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
71.7
80.0
73.3
81.7
80.0
80.0
68.8
75«0
64.6
66.7
70.8
79.2
79.5
79.5
61.4
81.8
81.8
90.9
52.2
54.3
21.7
82.6
65.2
65.2
90.0
70.0
70.0
83.3
75.0
76.7
54.2
62.5
91.7
81.2
75.0
77-1
68.2
72.7
75.0
81.8
79.5
84.1
73.9
60.9
21.7
73.9
82.6
71.7
April
May
June
41.7
61.7
70.0
66.7
65.0
56.7
45.8
66.7
70.8
75.0
72.9
r62.5
84.1
79.5
84.1
90.9
90.9
88.6
73.9
41.3
54.3
67.4
r65.2
r56.5
36.7
58.3
r31»7
r55.0
P48.3
45-8
r54-2
r37.5
45.8
P43.8
77.3
68.2
77.3
86.4
86.4
45.7
50.0
r30.4
P47.8
....
July
August
September
October
November
December
....
r51.7
P48.3
r43.8
P41.7
68.2
84.1
r69.6
P54-3
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes
are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used
except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminaryjand^NA", not
available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1969
91
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1969
Diffusion index components
April
June
May
July
August
September
November?
October
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING x
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industrSgs • •
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
f
+
+
+
+
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing....
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products.
Leather and leather products, . 3
o
+
o
+
o
o
+
40.8
40.7
(48)
40.7
40.6
(43)
40.7 o
(48)
(29)
(45)
40.9
40.2 +
40.9 o
42.0 +
41.8
41.8
40.6 +
40.3
40.9
42.1
41.7 o
41.6 +
40.9
40.2
40.7
41.9
41.7
41.8
40.2
39.7
40.1
41.7
41.5
41.6
+
+
t+
+
o
40.4
39-8
40.3
42.1
42.0
41-6
42.6 o
40.9
41.5
40.8 o
39.5
42.6
40.6 o
41.1 +
40.8 +
39.1 +
42.5
40.6
41.6 +
40.9 o
39.2
42.2 +
40.3 +
42.3
40.9 o
39.1
42.6
40.4
41.2
40,9
39.0
40.9
36.4 +
41.1
36.0 +
43.4
40.8
38.1 +
41.0 +
36.1 +
43.0
40.7
39.5
41.2 o
36.2 42.9 +
40.6 +
38.2
41.2
36.0
43.0
+
+
+
o
-
38.4 o
41.8 o
43.0
41.4 37.6
38.4 +
41.8 +
42.2
41.3
37.4
38.5
41.9 o
38.3
41.6
42.9
41.4
37.7
o
4i!a
37.0
+
40. B
10.5
(26)
(57)
©
(57)
-
riO.2 •*•
r39.9 <i39.9 -
o
+
-
40.4
r40.1
40.1
P42.1
42.2
r41.5
o
o
42.2
P41.5
+
+
42.7
r40.5
-
+
o
r4l!o
39.0
40.9 +
+
40.9
35.9 42.8 o
P41.0
37.4
r40.8
r35.8
42.8
38.4
41.9
42.8
40.9 +
36.8 +
o
+
37. a
40.5
o
Q
p/t2.4 +
P40.2 P41.4 +
4
40.4
40.5
39-8
41.7
41.8
41.5
42.6
39,9
40,4
41,2
39.1
+
-
-T
r3?!3 t
r40.6 4H6.0 r42.7 -
40,8
37.7
40.7
35.7
42.6
38.3
U.6 +
r42,0 +
P41.0
37.1
+
o
r42.5 o
+
38.5
41.7
42.2
40.8
37.6
a. 7
p4i!y
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
Alt durable goods industries
+
30,944 -
(46)
(54)
Primary matals
Blast furnaces stsel mills.
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals. . „
+
„
„
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical.
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment.
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Meta (working machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
4,806
2,307
29,998 -
-
29,171 + 31,069
(60)
(40)
4,772
2,246 +
- 30,482 + 32,135 - r3i,699 - 30,572
4,825
2,308 +
(81)
(41)
5,161
2,510 -
5,001
2,370 +
5,313
2,592
+
-t-
+
3,158
...
5,650
!} 585
+}
+
+
5,579
415
+|
3,091
3,197
3,157
3,H9
(3D
(37)
3,340
2'| 571 -
4,797
(NA)
* 0*
3,437
•4
...
•4-
.. .
(NA)
+
5,513
5,433
5,627
«JQ;L
500 !} 540 ~\
-f\
6,152
5,635
l}
(NA)
&°
4
+
+
685 +
429
4
439
+
+
735
361
501
716
303
i*
664 +
489
o
+
704 +
274 +
736
338
690
20?
+
...
584
544
526
4-
(NTA)
(MA)
(MA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (-) •<-• foiling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r - revised. ^Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
92
DECEMBER 1969
IICII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data asid Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
April
May
June
September
August
July
October
November
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS mDUSTRIES1-Continue(T
(Missions of dollars)
3,710
3,928
Electrical machinery
*
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*. ....
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipmentt
;}
*37
,
6
1}
92
4
^ . .
4
Transportation equipment
«
Motor vehicles and parts total
4
;}
+
961
+ 1,165
Other electrical machinery*. •>
3,664
...
4
7,228
7,695
7i1
4
+
800 4
*
7,554
...
+
...
4
4
+
...
4
...
4
...
4
7?885
1,310 -
r7,577
(NA)
4
4
...
4
...
4
94.18 4
94.51
4
...
P7,675
4
+
...
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
^fnnp rlsv anril CT!A^^ tot^l
842
4
7,657
4
4
...
4
4'
4
4
•**
e o .
4
4
4
Furniture total
1,082
4
4
4
Instruments tots!
1,242 -
4
...
...
(NA)
4,097
68? :} 740 ;} 724 +} (HA)
4
4
4
+
+
Aircraft partsl"
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
l}
...
...
6,341
3,688
3,707
4.. 079
:} 752
4
4
...
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 5DO COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43-10)
Index of 500 stock prices
4 101.26
4
104.62 -
(75)
(54)
Coal bituminous
Food composite
. .. .
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
»......,
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
„
,. .
Building materials composite. . . >.4 . . .
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
..
Radio and television broadcast6rs
4
+
...
94.71 (4)
...
4
...
4 '">
.. .
4-
. . .
-
...
-h
4
4
4
4
4
4
-1"
4
4
4
4
4
. . .4
4
...
-t-
...
...
...
...
—
4
—
4
H-
''
. . .
4
...
4
...
...
a « .
—
.. •
+
...
+
4
4
...
+
4
4
4
...
~\-
-t-
...
. . • ~~
...
o
+
+
-t-
...
~
4
...
4
...
4
...
H-
4
-h
4-
•+•
4
_
...
4
4
_
4
4
4
4
.» ,
...
...
...
4
4
Electric companies
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
4
4
96.21
(68)
..
4
4
4
4
(73)
o
_
4
...
95.52 4
+.
...
4
-
+
4
...
-t_
4
4
(6l)C
(35)
+
_^-
+
4
...
99-14 (1)
,
...
4
...
4
4
4
...
4
...
4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers areheld confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more Important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table E3.
BCII
DECEMBER 1969
93
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
April
June
May
July
August
October
September
November
December1
023. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1957=59-100)
+
109.3 +
110.4 +
111.6 +
112.4 +
115.0 +
115.6
117.4
o
115.6 +
U6.5
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (tb.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tinflb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Woof tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib,).
Rosin (100 Ib,)
Rubber (Ib,)
Tallow (Ib.)
(62)
(58)
(77)
(77)
(65)
.561 +
.604
.577 +
.545 +
+
.534 +
.078 +
+
.070 +
.079
.074 +
.073 +
+ 25.536 + 30.644 + 31.283 - 29.774 + 31-408 +
1.617 + 1.663 - 1.567 - 1.565 + 1.594 +
.151 , +
.150 +
.151 o
+
.146 +
.151 o
.no +
.136 4.145
.143
.143 +
+
+
o
+
+
.254
.217
1.572
.193
11.893
.265
.059
+
+
+
o
.250
.224
1.584
.190
11.964
.255
.059
o
+
o
+
+
.250
.221
1.597
.179
11.964
.260
.064
.249
.221
1.572
.172
+ 12.410
+
.278
+
.068
o
-
+
o
+
+
+
+
.257
.221
1.578
.168
12.550
.304
.076
o
+
+
+
+
(58)
.601
.076
34.073
1.654
.160
.152
-i-
.257
.220
1.583
.202
12.823
.285
.079
+
o
-
+
o
+
+
(46)
(50)
.602
.073
33.298
1.665
.160
.162
.589
+
.074
- 30.090
+ 1.740
o
.160
+
.169
(38)
.622
.077
33.268
1.819
.159
.160
.261
.252
.255
.220
.222
.219 •t1.546 + 1.566 - 1.53d
.186
.192 +
.196
12.978 - 12.939 - 12.913
.266
.241
.238
.068
.074
.073 +
+
+
+
+
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS 3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims . „.
+
Percent rising of 47 components
Northeast region:
Boston (7) . . . .
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11).
New York (1)
Paterson (21)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (22)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19). . .
Milwaukee (18)
Minneapolis (13)
St, Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3) .
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (16)
176
180
(49)
(57)
201 +
+
+
-i+
...
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
—
...
+
+
...
+
+
...
-
...
+
+
-f.
+
... +
...
+
...
+
+
+
+
...
...
+
. .
+
+
+
+
+
+
-i-
+
+
[' "
+
-
][]
+
-
+
+
+
+
[][
+
]][
... +
...
+
...
...
...
+
+
[][
["
+
+
+
+
+
-*+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
214
(32)
-f
+
+
...
202
(46)
...
+
+
4-
(38)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
201
196
(60)
+
+
+
+
197 +
(51)
(23)
*t+
+
+
*['
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (•) - falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency, NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Average for December 2, 9, and 16.
^Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its si^e rank.
94
DECEMBER 1969
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
May
April
June
July
September1"
August
November p
October
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
+ 69,739
(42)
Percent rising of 30 components
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures....
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products ..
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
192
193
530
525 +
412
+
413
526
529
- 1,057 + 1,062
- 1,118 +- 1,121
+ 1,370 - 1,366
+ 1369 + 11381
- 1,420 - 1,399
o
292 +
294
347
348
- 1,205 + 1,206
68 +
69
871
875
+ 1,252 + 1,255
+
554
: m
617
118
449
300
o
o
+
o
624
- 3,363
+ 4,439
+ 3,737
+ 10,796
+ 3,531
+ 11,044
o 2,758
+ 9,386
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
pining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
+ 70,013
(62)
+
70,300 ~
(70)
70,247 +
(37)
70,500 (58)
181
188
187
518
520
528
408 +
410
411
526 +
+
532
527
1,06?
+
1,076 + 1,077 +
1,122 + 1,128
+ 1,122 o
i>366
+
1.327
1387
iJJre
+ 1,434 - 1,430 + 1,582
292
292
291 +
350
345
+
348 +
; 1:18
6
+
+
+
-
70,390 + r?0,642 o 70,621
(32)
(48)
(52)
173
516
408
529
1,106
1,127
1,380
1383
1,447
289
343
o
+
+
+
o
873
- 1,248
555
+
675
620
o
119
o
455
294
+
629
3,434
+
4,483
o
3,773
+ 10,898
+
3,568
o 11,067
2,777
9,454
o
168
504
400
o
531
- 1,102
- 1,109
+ 138$ : I',®
- rl,*25 - 1,392
862
863
- 1,242 - 1,239 o
557
+
678 +
614
619
118
117 +
451
454
+
296
287 +
+
631 o
631 +
3,420 - 3,410 +
4,480 +
o
4,484 +
3,776 +
3,787 +
+ 10,926 o 10,929 +
3,586 +
+ 3,581 +
+ 11,120 + 11,150 +
2,752 2,749 +
9,486 - 9,461 +
288
280
r344 +
345
rl,lBO + 1,225
65
65 o
r86l +
867
rl,238 - 1,236
r556
r6§2
r6l3 +
617
rl!8 +
119
r450
447
r290
289
r632
630
r3,415 + 3,452
r4,486 + 4,490
r3,808 o 3,809
rll,019 + 11,054
r3,594 + 3,611
rll,235 + 11,245
r2,729 o 2,728
r9,568 + 9,620
rl?3.1 - 171.1
(42)
(44)
+
1,201 - 1,197 + 1,204 - 1,199 68 +
70
69
67
+
873
o 1,255
+
556
+
674
623
617 +
118 +
119
455
451 +
300
299
622
622 o
3,466
3,407 +
4,467
4,444 +
3,758 +
3,774
10,851 + 10,891
3,557
3,541 +
11,065 o 11,066
2,790
2,754 +
9,469
9,453 +
rl68
r509
r408
r531
1,111
rl,117
r 1,387
:
gg
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59-100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components
2
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Mi seel laneous
+ 171.7
(46)
+
172.5
(67)
+ 173.7 + 174.6 - 174.3 - 173.9 (38)
(46)
(54)
(71)
+
-
+
+
1493
179-2
+ 153.1 + 180.6 -;
147*9
178.3
+ 190.8+ 193.1
- 199.5 + 201.8
- 172.4 - 171.8
+ 195.4 - 195.3
+
+
+
152*4 179.1 +
r!51.3 r!80.6
14916 +
179.1 +
195.3 + 196.0 - 195.5 + 199.7
200.8 + r204.5 o
199.6 +
204-5
178.8
176.6 + 181.1
179.1
194.7 + 194.9 + 195.4
195.7
156! 4 +
r!79.7
151
178
o
155 *3 +
157! 4 - 15516 o
rll4.1 - 109.5 + pllO.3
196
182
169
193
139
156
(NA)
184!!
rl65.2 o
182
165
+ r 200.0
- r!97.0
- r!75.9
- 193.8
+
-
155 li +
122.6 -
156.9
120.7
155.* 2 1521 7 +
- 115.5 - 113.4 +
+
+
188!9
167.6
+
-
190i2
167.5
185 !6 +
18^5 185 .'3
I89i9
+ 168.1 _ 167.4 _ 165.8 - 165.3 _
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
2
DECEMBER
1969
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
April
May
June
July
September
August
;
October
November
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59-100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather *
Textile mill products
Apparel products
*
Leather and products
*
+
175! 8 1753 +
174^9 +
- 152.7 + 155.9 + 156.5 +
+
-
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
,
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal , stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
,
D58.
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber texti le products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
176!4 •I177 \5 158'.3 - 158.2 -
r!76!e r!58.0 -
p!75*3
P140
(MA)
(NA)
(MA)
nsy.o +
223.3 +
243a 239^7 +
239^1 +
239^5 +
142.2 + 143.5 + 145.4 - 143.5 +
237.0 +
234.2 +
238.3 +
237.3 -i-
r238!i +
M4.5 +
r239.9 o
r239!i -tr!46.2 +
p240.0
P239.8
p!47.9
(MA)
+
343!! -
+
TU&.2 pl!8.6
r!38.8 o
plA0.4
(NA)
122.1 130.2 +
1U.7 +
r!30.7 +
115.7 +
131.5
OJWzii 342.8 +
rl33ll +
r!44.3 -
-
146! 5 110.5 +
+
+
124.8 f
120.2 + 123.9 +
126.9 + 129.6 + 134.8
-
346^6 141.4 -
138^6 H5.4 +
139^9
1383 +
121.9 - 120.3
137.*4 +
134^5 +
141.2 + 142.6 -
130.0 132.1 -
oasii
+
1/42.2 +
114.8
pl66
(NA)
p!59
p224
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
P139
(NA)
(NA)
pH9
P130
pna
(NA)
(NA)
pl3S*4
P139-9
INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59-100)
+
112.4 +
112.8 +
113.2 +
H3.5 i-
113.6 +
(68)
113.9 +
314*6 +
(77)
(68)
123.2
106.4 +
113.5 +
113.2 +
143.5 +
112.8 +
124.2 +
122.6 +
02:2.6
106,5
113,8
113 o ?
U9.2 +
118,1 + 118.5 +
+ 116.6 + 117.6 +
11? «8 -t+ 104.3 + 104.5 + 104.7 + 104.8 - 104.7 + 105.4 +
106.0
+
lOb.l t106,6
+ 106.4 + 106.5 + 106.6 o
102. 6 +
n6.4 +
+
112. 7 +
H5.5 + 115.9 +
115-1 +
(80)
(34)
Miscellaneous products
rI41.2
pl51.6
(NA)
(NA)
-
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
.
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
. . ,. *
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment, . . „
r!52.4 pU6.2
P97.7
f-
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
All manufacturing industries
r!53.0 r!4B.8 100.0 -
+ 154.2 + 156.5 + 157.8 - 157.0 149.2 + 150.7 - 147.8 + 150.0 98.4 +
- 103.4 + 107.6 - 104.7
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
143-3
105.8
112.3
108.9
132.4
110.2
330.4
120.0
(77)
(84)
129.8
138.0
+ 105.9 o 105.9
+ 112.6 + 112.8
+ 109.9 + 110.3
+ 134.2 + 135.5
+
+
+
125.3
106.1
113.0
111.1
+
+
+ 120.5 + 120.7 +
+ 120.3 + 121.2 +
136.1
002. 0
121.3
121.5
+
110. a + 111.0
+ 117.3 + 119.4 + 121.4 + 122.0
- 104.5 + 104.6 - 104.5 + 105.3
+ 104.3 o 104.3 + 105.0 o 105.0
92.6
+ 92.4 + 92.6 + 92.7
+ 113.0 - 112.9 +
113-3 + 113.9
+ 108.0 + 108.1 + 108.3 + 108.4
98.2
98.1 + 98.3
97.9 +
103.2
+
102.5 102.4 + 103.3
+ 101.2
101.1 + 101.2 + 102.5
+ 126.0 + 126.1 - 125.7 + 126.4
- 124.0 + 106.2 +
o 113.0 +
+
112. 7 +
+ 139.5 +
+ 112.6 +
+ 123.2 +
+ 121.8 +
H4.9
(84)
144.8
13J. 4
024.4
123,4
+
+
+
o
+
+
o
+•
123.9
106.9
113.9
113.7
046.4
113.6
324-4
323.7
120,0
105.6
103.7
116.?
+
+
+
+
320.4
1,06.0
0,09.0
117.0
021.6 +
- 121.5 - 121.3 +
105.8 +
+ 105.7 + 105.9 - 104.8 + 105.0 - 104.5 +
92.1
91.6
+ 92.7
+ 115.8 + 116.2 + 116.5 +
021.8
106.0
104.6
91.5
+ 108.7 +
+ 98.7 +
102.5
+ 103.0
o 126.4 -r
108. 8 + 109.0
98,6
98.9
101.8
101.6
102. 7 + 103.5
328.2 127.4
+
+
o
-t>
:ii6.7
109.3
93.9
101.6
104.4
126.8
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and () - falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA ~ not available, p -: preliminary, r = revised.
^•Data are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
96
DECEMBER 1969
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
April
July
June
May
August
September1*
October
November P
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
i-
29,442 -
29,386 -
(74)
(41)
5,906
2,186
3,011
285
29,371 -
+
o
+
+
560
375 +
658
306 +
554
400
653
332
526
388
645
316
895
478
951
283 +
852
445
899 +
291
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel accessory stores
Shoe stores
+
+
+
+
558
414
649
266 o
546 +
399
633 +
266 +
552
375
640
296
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
+
+
903
436 +
974
287
902
455 +
943 +
281 +
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
+
+
+
+
5,145 427
2,106 +
963 +
619
2,191 2,991 +
294
+
5,220
o
414
-
6,006 -
(70)
(30)
5,863 +
5,839 +
2,133 +
3,080 294
+
+
(50)
29,259 + r29,605 -
5,868 -
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
+
tDepartment stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . .
5,102
4U
2,119
996
615
(46)
(54)
-
29,090 f 29,346 -
29,346
(54)
5,907 + p6,053 +
2,173 f p2,221 +
2,988 -i- P3,042 +
281 iP296
(NA)
(HA)
(NA)
(NA)
-r
t-
P551 +
P416 +
.+•
p652
+
P318
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
841 -t424
905 +
280
847
417 +
925
265 +
p833
P438
P907
p266
5,013 -f
399
5,272 -
408
2,110 +
3,143 287
5, on
o
2,150 +
3,117 285
-
2,086 -
2,080 -
2,075 +
+
975 +
627 +
994 +
642
1,013 +
640
393
2,089 1,019 +
617 +
+
+
+
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P5,218
P392 p2,086 +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
pi, 021 +
p628
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and H = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA - not available, p ** preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
DECEMBER 1969
97
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month
133. Canada,
781. United
index of consumer
States, index of
consumer prices©
132. United King- 135. West Germany, 136. France,
index of consumer index of consumer
dom, index of
prices©
consumer prices@ prices ©
138, Japan, index
of consumer
prices©
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices®
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
153
154
154
138
1?8
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February .
March
115
115
115
n?
117
118
129
129
129
123
141
141
142
April
May
June ...
115
116
116
n9
130
130
130
124
124
124
142
142
142
154
153
152
138
119
120
July
August
September
116
117
11?
121
121
121
130
130
129
124
123
123
142
143
143
152
153
156
139
139
140
October.
November
December
1968
January
February . .
March
118
118
118
121
121
122
129
131
131
123
123
123
144
U5
145
159
159
160
140
140
HO
119
119
120
123
123
123
132
133
133
125
125
125
147
H7
147
161
161
162
140
HO
HO
April .
May
June
120
120
121
124
124
124
136
1?6
136
125
125
126
147
148
148
162
163
161
HI
HI
HI
July
August
September
122
122
122
125
125
126
136
137
137
126
&5
125
149
149
150
162
162
168
HO
HO
141
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
123
123
124
126
127
127
137
138
140
126
126
127
152
152
153
166
167
166
HI
HI
HI
124
125
126
127
1*7
128
140
141
U2
128
128
129
155
155
156
16?
16?
169
142
142
143
April
May
June
126
12?
128
129
130
131
143
143
144
129
129
129
156
15?
158
171
171
171
143
143
144
July
August
September
128
129
129
131
132
131
142
143
144
130
129
129,
158
159
160
175
175
177
145
145
145
October
November
December
130
130
132
(NA)
145
(NA)
(NA)
176
(NA)
123
123
130
(NA)
137
13d
139
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
98
DECEMBER 1969
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Year
and
month
47. United
States, index of
industrial production
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59-100)
126. France,
index of industrial production
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
128. Japan, index of industrial
production
121. OECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial production
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
155
127. Italy, index
of industrial production
(1957=59-100)
(1957-59=100)
January
February . . .
March
158
157
157
166
166
166
129
129
130
156
154
156
151
150
150
298
295
304
154
rl55
206
208
207
April
June
157
156
156
168
167
168
131
130
130
153
152
156
150
150
148
305
312
317
155
154
155
210
211
211
July
August
September
156
158
157
169
170
170
130
130
131
157
157
159
154
152
155
321
327
336
157
156
158
211
208
212
October
November
December
157
160
162
169
173
174
133
134
136
159
161
164
157
157
170
338
346
349
159
160
165
216
216
215
January
February
March
161
162
163
172
172
173
135
136
136
164
165
169
159
161
166
348
354
351
162
163
166
218
220
221
April
June
162
164
166
175
176
179
136
138
138
167
116
136
165
167
180
362
372
373
165
157
165
222
222
223
July
August
September
166
165
165
178
178
180
138
140
141
171
171
171
167
178
177
382
382
389
168
171
173
223
217
234
October....
November
December
166
168
169
182
184
185
141
142
143
179
182
184
176
185
187
397
407
401
175
178
180
235
226
233
January
February
March
169
170
171
185
187
191
141
141
143
183
180
180
186
189
190
403
410
405
180
180
182
238
233
240
April
June
172
172
174
187
186
186
143
143
144
185
185
183
189
195
197
428
429
435
183
184
186
242
236
243
juiv
August
September
175
174
174
186
183
P184
144
p!44
(NA)
184
P184
190
..197
p!92
446
443
P459
186
p!86
(NA)
243
233
p226
October
November
December
173
P171
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
1967
May
1968
May
1969
May
(NA)
"•';
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p" f preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Qrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
KCII
DECEMBER 1969
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
I
3
Year
and
month
143. Canada, index 142. United King19. United States,
of stock prices ® dom, index of
index of stock
stock prices ®
prices, 500 common
stocks ©
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
STOCK PRICES
146. France, index
of stock prices ®
147, Italy, index
of stock pnas®
145. West Germany, 148. Japanf index
of stock prices ©
index of stock
prices®
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
157
156
159
99
103
98
148
156
159
223
y2
229
'U'X
2M
12?
(1957-59=103)
1967
January ...
February
March
iai
180
182
April
May
June
184
188
185
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
98
158
155
154
223
231
231
132
July
August
September . . .
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
94
99
110
156
175
182
231
215
209
133
October
November
December .
1968
January
February .
March
194
188
193
192
188
189
196
203
200
109
106
103
182
192
194
213
206
193
193
184
181
189
177
171
202
208
213
107
104
113
205
209
207
203
208
209
April
May
June
194
1ft ^
2.1%
117
216
220
1^6
J^O
"1QA
irt*;
246
111
y-\Q
20A.
1A7
pep
"1O7
yy&
99Q
OQe
<P5
J--J^
1 11
±*2J
July
August
September
171
177
175
pAQ
-\Q>,
1 QQ
iyy
•I Q**)
iyZ
IQft
5*10
2°\L
203
2Oi
270
104
228
07*3
TO.c
99 L
279
109
219
216
210
9O7
206
201
pi j.
2O1
21?
208
282
270
Apfil
May
June
205
212
201
213
224
209
266
253
235
1 Q9
1 QQ
1QT
TOp
October
November
December .
9*30u
O
0*21
O-L
99J,
205
October....
November
December
1969
January
February .
March
July.
August
September .
•jno
jjjj
i nc
1U5
?fa
*yif\
272
97Q
19*5
el8^
1 AC
97^
9 A/,
266
9Q1
302
304
yyrj
<,£(
T 91
-cjt5
1QQ
204
226
197
9^,7
OOQ
1 97
-U-f
oco
^p<
206
21 A
n?n
p£-UL
OOC
*O
P-k?4
-.900
P*>&
-.TO*
'jAo
—T O C
onro
2^4
P-OP
oJ
P-k?4
_.-»
__/j^r»
p267
lor;
*rtl
2^5
2*3*3
597
1 34
130
333
11&
128
136
124
247
143
S39
335
i Q^i
138
l^A
i^D
97Q
£(7
OQ£t
139
:
ofq
282
5>7Q
243
129
^M-^
99ft
1?0
'130
254
930
y^l
1TO
121
'15,9
1^1
1 97
134
THe
AJ5
i <a*s
i?c^
ViA
lfi?
151
1*50
QAA
^UU
9QO
^7^
QT A
T J /
146
i £y
4=52
i R*a
153
jio
p331
rp3Ap
vv^e^.
P356
•wv^l K
T /O
162
rpl64
plS6
•w«l / /
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
100
DECEMBER 1969
IIUI
APPENDIXES
A. QCD and Related {Measures of Variability
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
1
C
1/C
I/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
200.
205
210
215
217.
220
222-
GNP in current dot lars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit pries deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
National income current dollars
Persona! income, current dollars.
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69-...
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-HQ'69....
IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
1.62
1.23
.57
1.37
1.04
1.70
1.51
.31
.30
.10
^30
.30
.35
.23
1.55
1.12
.56
1.28
.91
1.59
1.48
.20
.27
.18
.24
.33
.22
.16
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.20
.27
.18
.24
.33
.22
.16
7.22
3.82
16.25
5.91
5.00
7.11
13.00
1.33
1.27
1.35
1.33
1.27
1.36
1.23
9.2%
7.22
32.50
9.29
7.22
10.67
13.00
7.22
3.82
16.25
5.91
5.00
7.11
13.00
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69-. S .
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
1.43
1.07
1.13
.27
.29
.26
1.39
1.00
1.07
.19
.29
.24
1
1
1
.19
.29
.24
13.00
5.91
7.22
1.27
1.33
1.27
65.00
9.29
9.29
13.00
5.91
7.22
IQ'53-IIQ'69""
.82
.29
.73
.40
1
.40
3.82
1.44
5.91
3.82
IQ'53-IIQ'69-...
1.44
.35
1.40
.25
1
.25
9.29
1.27
65.00
9.29
iQ'53-IQ'69....
1.05
.41
1.01
.41
1
.41
4.27
1.21
7.11
4.27
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods IQ'53-IIQ'69....
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
except automobiles
Q'53-IQ'G9....
234 Personal consumption expend automobiles ..... Q'53-IQ'69....
236. Personal consumption expend., nondurable goods . Q'53-UQ'69....
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services
Q'53-IIQ'69....
3.12
1.42
2.43
.58
1
.58
2.83
1.20
5.00
2.83
2.08
6.11
1.17
1.75
.90
3.50
.47
.22
1.83
4.22
1.13
1.71
.49
.83
.42
.13
1
1
1
1
.49
.83
.42
.13
4.57
2.46
5.91
65.00
1.23
1.28
1.25
1.23
8.00
3.56
32.50
65.00
4.57
2.46
5.91
65.00
240 Gross private domestic investment, total
; Q'53-IIQ'69....
Q'53-IIQ'69....
Q'53-IIQ'69....
243. Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment . . Q'53-IIQ'69.... 0
Q'53-IIQ'69....
244 Fixed investment residential structures
4.74
2.87
2.81
3.26
3.43
2.29
1.01
1.62
1.23
1.01
3.42
2.48
2.13
2.78
3.07
.67
.41
.76
,44
.33
1
1
1
1
1
.67
.41
.76
.44
.33
2.60
4.33
2.50
2.95
2.95
1.38
1.35
1.25
1.25
1.35
4.33
5.00
4.33
5.00
5.91
2.60
4.33
2.50
2.95
2.95
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
252 Exports of goods and services
253 Imports of goods and services ............... IQ'53-1IQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
262. Federal Gov. purchases of goods and services . . .IQ'53-IIQ'69....
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and
IQ'53-1IQ'69....
services for national defense
266. State and local gov. purchases, goods and services IQ'53-IIQ'69....
3.95
3.33
2.01
2.26
2.57
1.97
.56
.89
2.53
2.32
1.89
1.98
1.02
.85
.29
.45
2
1
1
1
.44
.85
.29
.45
2.60
2.83
5.91
3.25
1.33
1.27
1.27
1.35
5.00
5.91
13.00
4.64
3.76
2.83
^5.91
3.25
2.20
2.40
.76
.47
1.90
2.37
.40
.20
1
1
.40
.20
2.95
21.67
1.25
1.30
5.00
21.67
2.95
21.67
2.27
1.26
1.68
1.26
.99
4.26
.87
.54
.25
.69
.36
2.20
1.96
1.20
1.63
.99
.89
3.31
.44
.45
.16
.69
.41
.67
1
1
1
1
1
1
.44
.45
.16
.69
.41
.67
3.76
5.82
9.29
2.32
9.29
3.05
1.31
1.21
1.27
1.35
1.23
1.23
7.11
16.00
9.29
5.42
7.22
3.76
3.76
5.82
9.29.
2.32
9.29
3.05
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-I1Q'69....
3.95
4.84
8.88
.93
2.42
7.22
3.91
3.66
4.61
.24
.66
1.57
1
1
2
.24
.66
.50
21.67
3.05
1.51
1.30
1.19
1.27
21.67
6.40
3.25
21.67
3.05
2.67
IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
8.98
1.81
5.39
.34
6.17
1.76
.87
.19
1
1
.87
.19
2.21
21.67
1.25
1.38
3.05
21.67
2.21
21.67
IQ'53-IIIQ'6Z.
IQ'53-1Q'69..
IQ'53-1IQ'69..
IQ'53-IIIQ'6Z.
9.31
5.06
1.49
3.13
4.62
2.85
.33
.74
6.89
3.87
1.46
2.91
.67
.74
.23
.26
1
1
1
1
.67
.74
.23
.26
3.05
3.05
13.00
5.80
1.29
1.23
1.23
1.41
3.41°
4.57
13.00
5.80
3.05
3.05
13.00
5.80
1Q'53-IQ'69..
IQ'53-IIIQ'6Z.
IQ'53-IIIQ'6a.
1Q'53-1IQ'69..
IQ'53-IIQ'69..
.86
5.36
10.48
1.62
1.23
.40
.84
6.04
.31
.30
.72
5.21
7.52
1.55
1.12
.56
.16
.80
.20
.27
1
1
1
1
1
.56
.16
.80
.20
.27
3.37
4.14
2.13
7.22
3.82
1.31
1.32
1.25
1.33
1.27
4.92
5.80
5.08
9.29
7.22
3.37
4.14
2.13
7.22
3.82
IQ'57-1IIQ'68.
IQ'57-IIIQ'68.
IQ '57-1110 '68.
IQ'59-IVQ'68.
110 '57-1110 '68-
3.09
2.30
1.51
8.10
2.73
1.00
.74
.31
5.63
1.45
2.68
1.81
1.45
4.61
1.77
.37
.41
.21
1.22
.82
1
1
1
2
1
.37
.41
.21
.55
.82
4.18
4.60
6.57
1.95
2.25
1.35
1.35
1.31
1.30
1.13
5.11
5.75
9.20
3.55
3.46
4.18
4.60
6.57
2.37
2.25
224
225.
226.
227.
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, constant dollars . ...
Per capita disposable personal income, current dof.
Per capita disposable personal income, constant
dollars
230. Total personal consumption expenditures, current
dol lars
231. Total personal consumption expenditures, constant
dollars
270 Final sales durable goods
274 Final sales nondurable goods
280 Compensation of employees
IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IQ'69 ....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
1Q'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
284 Rental income of persons
286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adjustment. . IQ'53-IQ'69....
288 Net interest
290 Gross saving private and government
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory
valuation adjustment
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
11
*16
57
*61
68.
New capital appropriations manufacturing
Corporate profits after taxes
Final sales
Business expend new plant and equipment
Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing .
*200 GNP in current dollars
*9flR
RNP in 1QR8 Hollars
...
C, ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
61a. Business expend., new plant and equipment
410 Manufacturers' sales total value
412 Manufacturers' inventories total book value
See definitions of measures at end of part 1.
101
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Average] duration of run
(ADR)
t/c
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
1
C
T/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Cl
I
C
2.60
2.83
5.00
5.91
3.00
3,00
3.76
2.83
2.95
2.40
QCD
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
252.
253.
264.
530
532.
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
National defense purchases
Liquid liabilities to all foreign6rs
Liquid and certain non liquid liabilities to
foreign official agencies
534
536
537
540.
U S official reserve assets
*
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Investment income, military sales, and other
services exports
541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures,
and other services imports ........
IQ'60-IIQ r 69....
IQ'60-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ ( 69....
IQ'60-IQ'69
....
3.95
3.33
2.20
2.21
2.57
1.97
.76
.96
2.53
2.32
1.90
1.67
1*02
.85
.40
.57
2
1
1
1
.44
.85
.40
.57
2.95
2.40
1.33
1.27
1.25
1.2-4
IQ'60-IQ f 69
3.95
2.62
2.50
1.05
2
.35
2.25
1.13
3.00
2.50
IQ'60-IQ'69 ....
IQ'60-IQ'69
....
IQ'60-IQ f 69
....
2.16
4.12
3.91
1.14
2.74
1.80
1.75
2.46
3.31
.65
1.11
.54
1
2
1
.65
.52
.54
2.57
1.80
3.60
1.29
1.38
1.29
3.60
3.60
5.14
2.57
3.50
3.60
IQ'60-IQ'69 ....
3.47
2.13
2.53
.84
1
.84
1.09
1.29
6.00
1.69
IQ'60-IQ'69
2.36
1.37
1.80
.76
1
.76
2.25
1.16
6.00
2.25
5.87
4.51
3.60
3.99
17.73
3.89
2.09
2.29
2.71
13.66
3.58
3.94
2.72
2.63
8.97
1.09
.53
.84
1.03
1.52
2
1
1
2
2
.43
.53
.84
.35
.65
1.71
3.60
4.00,
2.40
1.44
1.29
1.29
1.33
1.24
1.33
3.27
6.00
5.14
4.00
2.12
2.69
3.60
4.00
3.50
2.06
....
....
542
543.
544.
545
546
Income on U S investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S
Payments by U S travelers abroad
Mi litary sales to foreigners
547.
548.
549.
601.
602.
IQ'60-IQ'69
....
U S military expenditures abroad
Receipts from transportation and other services. . .IQ'60-IQ'69 ....
Payments for transportation and other services . . .[Q'60-IQ'69 ....
Fed. receipts, nat'l. income and product accts. . . .IQ'53-IQ'69 ....
Fed. expend., nat'l. income and product accts. . . .IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'60-IQ'69
....
IQ'60-IQ'69
....
IQ'60-IQ'69
....
IQWQ'69
....
IQ '60-10 '69 • - • •
3.72
2.42
3.19
2.62
2.13
2.25
1.37
2.44
.94
.85
2.67
2.04
1.72
2.41
1.90
.84
.,67
1.42
.39
.44
1
1
2
1
1
.84
.67
.61
.39
.44
2.25
3.60
1.80
4.27
4.33
1.29
1.24
1.24
1.31
1.23
3.60
9.00
6.00
6.40
5.91
2.25
3.60
2.92
4.27
4.33
8.53
.87
7.18
.40
4.52
.71
1.59
.56
2
1
.53
.56
1.44
3.25
1.27
1.23
a. 13
3.61
3.20
3.25
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal
income
858 Output per man-hour total private nonfarm
IQ'53-HQ'69....
. IQ'5MIQ'69....
*Seri@s Included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators,
by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted
from Journal of Business. October 1957).
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated
by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with
a QCD greater than "2" are shown as "3*.
"Cl" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the
unadjusted series.
"IXC" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted
series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of
the period of QCD. When QCD is "3", no t/G ratio is shown for
the QCD period.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"7" is the same for the irregular component, obtained
by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an
estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter
spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.),
2-quarter spans (1st quarter-3d quarter, 2d quarter-4th
quarter, etc.), up to 4-quart:er spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
102
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
quarterly changes in the same direction! in any series of
observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and
the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving
average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the
seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter
intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of Cl is
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
1.44 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average,
reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The
ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.27 for I and
3.61 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has
been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is
3.20 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a
2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series
(2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the
average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR
from 1.44 for CI to 3.20 for the QCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend
movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Unit of
measure
CI
T
C
I/C
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
QCD
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
245 Change in business inventories total
250
271.
275.
298
IQ'53-IIQ'69...
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
... do
...do.....
...do
... do
2.85
.86
2.39
1.4-7
2.71
2.00
.46
1.62
1.27
1.40
1.53
.63
1.32
.54
2.23
Cents
.30
.22
.20
Percent
...do
Ann. rate,
biLdol....
.46
.11
.32
.05
.32 1.00
.11 .48
2.85
2.00
1.53
Mil. cars ...
93.26
53.01
56.21
I Q '60-1 Q '69.... Mil.dol.o...
238.8
139.6
154.3
IQ'53-IIQ'69...
Net exports of f?oods and services
Change in business inventories, durable goods. IQ'53-IQ'69....
Change in bus. inventories, nondurable goods . IQ'53-IQ'69
|Q'53-IQ'69
Government surplus or deficit total
1.31
.74
1.23
2.34
.63
2
1
2
2
1
.52
.74
.55
.88
.63
1.67
2.32
1.56
1.45
3.20
1.33
1.35
1.31
1.28
1.36
3.82
3.61
2.78
2.46
4.00
2.78
2.32
2.74
2.17
3.20
1.14
2
.48
2.52
1.29
3.32
3.44
2
1
.39
.48
2.37
2.70
1.28
1.48
4.92
3.65
4.20
2.70
2
.52
1.67
1.33
3.82
2.78
.94
1
.94
2.30
1.35
3.07
2.30
.90
1
.90
1.71
1.33
3.00
1.71
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
15. Profits (after taxes) per dolfar of sales, mfg. . . IQ'53-IVQ'68...
22. Ratio of profits to income originating,
corporate all industries
IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IIIQ'68...
*67 Bank rates on short-term bus loans©
IQ'53-IIQ'69...
245 Change in business inventories total
1.31
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
IQ'57-IIIQ'68 -.
480 Change in freight carloadings©
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding
military grants
520. U.S. balance of payments, liquidity balance
f
IQ'60-lQ 69....
...do
400.1 296.7
202.7
1.46
2
.57
1.52
1.23
2.78
2.74
IQ'60-IQ'69....
...do
572.3
355.5
286.5
1.24
2
.80
2.00
1.50
2.25
2.19
IQ'60-IQ'69....
...do
571.6
422.5
266.4
1.59
2
.70
1.89
1.38
3.00
2.33
IQ'60-IQ'69....
IQ'60-IQ'69....
1Q'60-IQ'69....
IQ'60-IQ'69....
IQ'60-IQ'69....
...do
...do
...do
...do
...do
637.0
65.8
219.4
141.6
124.8
384.3
55.9
169.6
105.7
101.3
330.3
33.3
88.2
86.6
64.2
1.16
1.68
1.92
1.22
1.58
2
3
3
2
2
.70
1.80
1.44
C 1 ) 1.50
.56 1.80
.41 1.33
1.50
1.24
1.38
1.29
1.16
3.00
1.89
2.57
3.00
2.77
2.19
1.94
2.83
2.19
2.33
1Q'60-IQ'69....
IQ'60-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69...
...do
...do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
265.6
289.2
216.1
213.6
117.8
157.7
1.84
1.36
2
2
.77
.63
1.50
1.44
1.24
1.33
2.00
2.00
2.19
1.84
2.69
1.51
2.08
.73
1
.73
2.29
1.33
4.00
2.29
4.16
1.72
.26
1.55
.69
.16
3.47
1.40
.17
.45
.49
.93
1
1
1
.45
.49
.93
2.95
2.82
2.04
1.30
1.41
1.36
5.00
3.65
3.27
2.95
2.82
2.04
522. U.S. balance of payments, official settlements
525. Net capital movements plus unilateral
transfers liquidity balance basis
527. Net capital movements plus unilateral
transfers official settlements basis
560 Foreign direct investments in the U S
561 U S direct investments abroad
564 Foreign purchases of U S securities
565 U S purchases of foreign securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions,
net
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net. . .
600. Fed. ba lance,. nat'l. income and product accts.
C1)
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
850 Ratio output to capacity manufacturing
857 Vacancy rate in total rental housing©
*Series included in the 1966
when QCD is "3."
IQ'53*IIQ'69...
IQ'53-IIIQ'68..
IQ'56-IIQ'68...
...do
Percent
... do
NBER "short list" of 26 indicators,
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
1
Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN INhPART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for1
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
_ .
Thus, CI is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure
as the series itself.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series,
«p, .g the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series
All other measures have the same meaning as in parti.
103
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1969
Series
Jan.
4. Nonagricultural
placements, all
industries1
5. Average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance. . . .
1
13 New business incorporations " .....
15. Profits (after2taxes) per dollar of
sales, mfg.
33. Net change in mortgage debt held
by financial institutions3and life
insurance companies * ...,.».
37. Purchased materials, percent of
companies reporting higher
inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over,
total installment loans^
49. Nonagricultural job openings
unfilled
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
5
112 Change in business loans .......
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
616. Defense Department obligations,
tota 1
621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement
625. Military contract awards in U.S —
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB)6. . .
87 4
151.3
118 2
Feb.
81 3
114.5
93 7
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
92 2
100 4
102 3
111 3
105 2
110 2
118 1
114 2
94 6
92.5
93.3
78.4
79.3
122.0
84.9
70.7
80.0
97.8
135.0
108 1
105 3
102 0
101 8
101 0
91 3
92 9
101 5
B4 0
100 1
Mar.
97.8
-272
102.3
-448
101.0
103.9
-111
107.0
109.8
+59
106.5
84.7
94.5
109.0
99.3
98.7
100.5
100.0
100.2
99.0
100.1
100.1
101.7
103.4
+215
103.1
120.1
+107
+157
+18
101.3
102.2
95,6
111.1
98.0
99.3
101.8
101.2
99.9
100.6
100.8
100.0
92.3
93.2
111.3
99.1
99.7
99.6
99.0
ftp 1
+3 ?6
»169
+238
88,1
91.7
97.7
98 3
99.0
103.0
Dec.
102.0
96.2
91.9
93.6
83.4
106.0
+93
Nov.
306 2
115.6
106.5
£4.1
100.1
99 „ 2
99.5
101,1
99.4
99 „ 7
99,6
100.3
94.3
99 ,,0
100.7
79.8
103.0
91.2
80.6
95.6
97.9
94.4
151.1
94.5
102.3
112.3
100,1
as. 6
94.7
77.2
71.0
96.0
99.0
96,9
204.9
38.2
102.6
122.3
100. S
7ft . 3
93.9
87.1
-15
81.0
88.7
86.4
+16
96.6
185.7
101. 7
87.9
115.0
79.4
92.2
.9
96.7
48
NOTE1: These series are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. IS.The X-11 Variant of the Census Method
[[Seasonal Adjustment Program.
"'•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors &ue to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
4
Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
1-quarter diffusion Index: Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter» The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted Index.
104
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This oppendix contains historical dato (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series,
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures ore often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Jan,
Feb.
Mar.
Apr,
May
June
July
Aug.
12,1. OECD— EUROPEAN COUNTRIES* INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
(1957-59=100)x
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Id
II Q
PRODUCTION
IIIQ
Annual
IV Q
AVERAGE
1953,..
69
69
71
72
72
72
73
74
74
75
76
76
70
72
74
*76
73
1954...
1955. .•
1956...
76
75
90
77
76
89
76
76
90
77
76
92
77
73
92
80
79
92
80
80
93
81
81
93
82
82
94
82
82
94
82
83
94
83
83
94
76
76
90
78
78
92
81
81
93
82
83
94
79
79
92
1957...
1958...
1959...
95
99
99
97
99
99
95
100
100
96
98
101
97
98
103
97
99
103
98
98
103
98
99
105
99
98
106
98
99
108
99
99
109
96
99
110
96
99
99
97
98
102
98
98
105
98
99
109
97
99
104
I960...
1961...
1962.. .
111
117
122
111
118
123
112
120
124
113
119
124
113
118
125
119
125
121
126
120
126
121
127
121
126
117
121
127
117
123
128
111
118
123
113
119
125
116
121
126
117
122
127
114
120
125
1963...
1964...
125
139
125
139
127
139
129
140
130
142
134
140
132
142
148
134
141
148
135
142
149
135
144
150
137
144
150
136
143
150
126
139
145
131
141
147
134
142
148
136
144
150
132
141
148
1966...
1967. .*
1968...
152
155
162
153
154
163
155
155
166
154
155
165
154
154
157
155
155
165
156
157
168
155
156
171
156
158
173
156
159
175
154
160
178
154
165
180
153
155
164
154
155
162
156
157
171
155
161
178
154
157
169
...
...
122. UNITED KINGDOMi INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
( 1957-59=100) *
AVERAGE
1948...
1949...
1950...
68
71
78
68
72
78
71
74
79
69
73
80
68
75
80
69
76
79
69
81
80
69
76
80
71
74
81
70
75
83
71
77
83
74
79
80
69
72
78
69
75
60
70
77
80
72
77
82
70
75
80
1951*. .
1952...
1953...
83
83
83
84
83
83
85
83
84
84
80
84
83
80
85
85
80
82
83
77
84
84
78
84
84
79
86
83
81
89
83
33
88
83
62
88
84
83
83
84
80
84
84
78
85
83
82
88
84
81
85
1954. . .
1955. ..
1956...
91
95
98
89
96
98
90
93
90
98
91
99
92
95
92
95
97
91
94
96
93
97
96
95
100
97
94
99
98
95
100
97
90
96
98
91
97
97
92
95
97
95
100
97
92
97
97
1957.. .
1958...
1959..*
98
98
99
99
100
99
98
101
93
98
97
102
99
98
102
100
98
102
100
97
103
100
97
103
100
97
105
98
97
107
100
98
108
98
99
109
98
100
99
99
98
102
100
97
104
99
98
108
99
98
103
I960...
1961...
1962*. *
110
111
110
110
111
111
111
111
112
110
112
112
111
110
113
110
112
113
110
113
113
111
111
113
111
110
114
112
111
112
111
HO
112
111
111
112
110
111
111
110
111
113
111
111
113
HI
111
112
111
111
112
1963...
1964.. .
1965. ..
108
122
129
110
123
129
114
123
128
113
124
128
115
124
131
117
126
129
117
126
129
119
126
129
120
127
130
120
128
131
121
126
130
121
129
131
111
123
129
115
125
129
119
126
129
121
128
131
116
126
130
1966...
1967...
1968...
131
129
135
131
129
136
134
130
138
133
131
136
131
130
138
131
130
138
133
130
138
133
130
140
131
131
141
130
133
141
128
134
142
129
136
143
132
129
136
132
130
137
132
130
140
129
134
142
131
131
139
123. CANADA! INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1957-59=100)2
AVERAGE
1948...
1949. . .
1950...
56
59
60
56
59
61
56
59
61
58
59
61
57
60
62
57
59
64
57
59
65
58
60
64
58
60
66
59
60
67
59
60
66
59
61
69
56
59
61
57
59
62
56
60
65
59
60
68
58
60
64
1951...
1952. ..
1953...
70
70
78
70
70
78
70
71
79
71
71
79
71
72
79
71
72
78
70
72
79
71
74
78
70
75
79
69
76
78
69
76
77
69
77
78
70
70
78
71
72
79
70
74
79
69
76
78
70
73
78
1954...
1955...
1«»S6...
78
82
92
79
82
92
78
84
93
77
84
96
77
86
94
77
87
96
77
87
97
78
89
97
78
89
97
78
90
98
79
90
99
81
91
99
78
83
92
77
86
95
78
88
97
79
90
99
78
87
96
1957. ..
1958...
1959. . .
97
95
101
99
96
103
100
96
103
98
97
105
98
97
105
96
97
105
98
97
106
98
97
106
96
97
107
95
97
109
96
99
107
96
100
108
99
96
102
98
97
105
97
97
106
96
99
108
97
97
105
1960*. *
1961...
1962...
110
107
116
109
107
117
109
106
us
107
109
118
107
109
120
107
111
121
106
112
122
106
113
122
107
115
122
107
115
123
107
116
123
107
116
122
109
107
117
107
110
120
106
113
122
'107
116
123
107
111
120
1963...
1964...
1965...
123
137
147
124
139
147
126
138
150
126
141
149
128
139
150
128
140
150
127
140
152
129
142
154
131
143
155
132
142
156
13<*
144
158
135
144
160
124
138
148
127
140
150
129
142
154
134
143
158
129
141
152
1966...
1967...
1968...
161
166
172
163
166
172
163
166
173
164
168
175
163
167
176
163
168
179
163
169
178
164
170
178
166
170
180
167
169
182
168
173
184
167
174
185
162
166
172
163
168
177
164
170
179
167
172
184
164
169
173
1
See
2
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Thia seriei contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user.
(DEXEMbER 1969)
105
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data {back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which hove been odded to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for o long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data arc seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures ore often bosed on data with more digits or on data winch have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures bosed on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic uaftet tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below,>
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jon.
Feb.
Mar,
Apr,
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
• Dec.
IQ
II Q
IIIQ
Annual
3V Q
135. WEST QERMANYi INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
! 1957-59=100 11
...
1948..*
19*49.. .
1930...
20
35
41
22
35
41
22
3S
43
22
36
44
23
37
45
22
37
46
26
38
48
27
39
50
28
39
50
29
39
52
30
40
S2
32
41
54
21
35
42
1951.**
1952...
19S3...
§4
58
61
SS
56
58
64
56
58
64
56
58
63
56
59
65
56
59
66
56
60
67
5S
60
67
56
62
68
58
63
62
6§
57
61
7©
55
53
62
§6
58
64
56
60
67
§7
62
69
56
60
6S
1994...
19SS...
19S6,..
67
79
89
69
79
86
69
SO
87
71
80
90
72
82
91
73
64
39
73
35
92
74
85
92
75
87
93
76
88
92
77
66
93
79
39
91
68
79
87
72
32
90
7*.
86
9*'
77
88
92
73
84
9©
19S7.».
1959.**
94
98
100
95
98
100
92
99
102
9S
97
100
96
99
109
9S
96
103
96
98
104
95
100
108
97
98
100
97
98
112
97
101
111
97
100
111
94
98
101
95
98
104
96
9$
107
97
100
111
96
99
106
I960***
1961.*.
1962...
116
125
127
112
126
129
114
123
127
117
126
129
115
124
129
118
122
132
120
126
130
117
125
131
120
126
134
122
124
130
121
125
133
123
129
136
114
126
128
117
124
130
119
126
132
122
126
133
116
126
131
1963...
1964*.*
1965...
139
141
1S8
127
143
154
134
143
ISO
132
142
154
133
151
155
141
144
154
134
146
152
138
148
155
138
147
155
138
151
156
142
150
155
139
150
153
130
142
154
135
146
154
137
147
154
140
ISO
USS
135
146
184
1966.**
1967...
1968...
160
151
159
1S8
150
161
159
ISO
166
160
150
165
159
150
167
160
148
180
159
154
167
155
152
178
155
155
177
157
157
176
152
157
185
151
170
187
159
150
162
160
149
171
156
1S4
174
153 j
161
183
157
15H
172
19S8.,.
ss
22
37
45
2*'
39
49
30
4©
S3
2S
38
47
126. FRANCE* INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1957-59=100)"'
AVERAGE
...
19«S...
1949***
19SO..*
40
5S
56
§1
57
57
§2
59
52
53
59
56
53
59
56
53
60
58
53
59
59
54
59
60
52
59
61
47
58
63
52
58
63
53
58
63
50
57
56
53
59
57
S3
59
60
51
68
63
S2
58
59
1931...
1952...
1<JS3...
60
66
60
62
65
61
61
65
63
62
64
63
63
61
65
63
63
65
65
63
64
64
64
60
65
63
66
65
63
66
63
64
67
63
61
70
61
65
61
63
63
64
6S
63
63
64
63
68
63
64
64
19§4...
19S§...
19S6*.»
68
74
85
67
74
83
68
7S
66
70
75
87
72
75
89
72
77
89
71
76
90
70
77
90
73
77
91
72
79
92
73
61
92
74
79
93
68
74
85
71
76
88
71
77
90
73
80
92
71
77
89
1957...
1958...
1959...
94
102
98
94
103
98
9S
103
99
94
102
101
96
101
101
96
102
102
98
101
102
98
101
102
99
100
104
98
100
105
100
99
106
101
98
107
94
103
98
95
102
101
98
101
103
100
99
106
97
101
102
I960.**
1961. **
1962.**
107
115
122
108
116
123
108
117
124
109
116
123
109
117
124
111
117
123
112
119
125
112
119
125
114
119
126
114
119
127
115
119
127
115
123
126
108
116
123
110
117
123
113
119
125
US
120
127
111
118
125
1963...
1964 ...
1965*. »
125
139
138
124
116
128
131
132
134
134
135
136
135
138
122
130
134
136
131
139
140
141
141
142
143
143
144
146
147
150
139
141
143
148
143
1966..*
1967...
1968...
147
156
164
150
154
165
152
156
169
151
153
167
151
152
116
154
156
136
155
157
171
155
157
171
156
159
171
155
159
179
136
161
1S2
156
164
164
150
155
166
152
154
140
155
158
171
196
161
182
1S3
157
165
127. ITALY t INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1957-59-100)1
AVERAGE
1943...
1949...
1950...
41
49
51
43
49
S2
44
47
53
44
47
S4
47
§1
54
44
53
55
44
51
54
51
52
57
49
51
57
49
51
58
SO
SI
59
49
50
61
43
48
52
45
50
54
48
SI
S6
49
SI
S9
46
SO
SS
1951...
1952...
1953...
60
62
66
62
62
66
63
62
67
63
62
67
63
64
65
62
63
67
63
63
68
62
64
69
62
65
68
60
65
71
60
66
73
61
65
73
62
62
66
63
63
66
62
64
68
feQ
65
7S»
62
64
66
19S4...
19SS...
19S6...
73
78
84
73
79
81
73
81
8s
74
79
S7
73
80
86
72
82
88
75
82
89
75
82
88
77
82
91
77
82
91
77
84
39
77
64
91
73
79
83
73
80
68
76
82
89
77
83 1
90
75
81
88
19S7*.*
19S8...
1959...
92
97
101
93
95
104
93
95
105
99
95
105
94
95
105
95
97
104
96
98
105
96
96
109
97
99
111
93
100
113
95
101
116
96
101
118
93
96
103
95
96
105
96
93
1,08
95
101
116
9§
93
108
I960...
1961*.*
1962..*
117
130
149
120
133
ISO
122
133
148
122
134
150
124
135
152
127
137
147
127
140
153
127
140
153
129
141
150
127
144
153
128
146
156
128
147
159
120
132
149
124
135
150
128
140
152
128
146
156
12S
138
152
1963.**
1964.**
1965**.
139
173
167
153
168
169
160
171
166
164
169
169
164
167
175
166
164
176
165
167
178
167
157
175
171
166
178
171
165
178
170
167
183
169
167
182
158
171
167
165
167
173
168
163
177
170
166
181
16S
167
17S
1966*.*
1967...
1968**.
186
206
218
186
208
220
191
207
221
187
210
222
193
211
222
194
2U
223
197
211
223
200
208
217
203
212
234
199
216
235
200
216
226
203
215
233
188
207
220
191
211
222
200
210
225
201
216
231
195
211
224
l
$eo
a
"Now Features ana Changes for This leeue/1 page ill.
Thie eorioo eontalno ne revioiono but ID roprlrvbed for the eonvenienee of the \
106
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Jan,
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
July
June
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
II Q
128. JAPAN. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1957-59=100)
IIIQ
Annual
IV Q
AVERAGE
1946..*
1949...
1950...
17
24
28
18
25
29
18
26
28
19
26
30
20
25
31
20
26
32
21
27
33
22
27
35
23
27
36
23
27
38
23
28
40
24
29
40
16
25
26
20
26
31
22
27
35
23
28
39
21
26
33
1951...
1952...
1953...
41
48
49
39
47
51
42
45
54
44
46
55
45
46
46
45
56
57
57
59
46
52
59
44
50
61
46
48
61
47
48
62
41
47
51
45
47
56
46
50
58
46
49
61
44
48
57
1954...
1055...
1956...
62
62
73
61
62
75
64
65
73
63
6a
7<S
61
64
78
61
64
80
61
65
61
59
67
83
61
69
84
61
66
86
62
71
87
63
71
87
62
63
74
62
64
78
60
67
83
62
70
87
62
66
SO
1957...
1958...
1959...
69
93
99
92
94
102
91
93
103
94
93
105
99
90
109
98
89
111
99
92
113
97
94
115
96
94
118
94
96
120
94
95
122
92
98
126
91
93
101
97
91
106
97
93
115
93
96
123
95
93
112
1960*. *
1961...
1962..*
127
155
162
131
154
178
133
158
181
136
159
181
136
162
182
137
165
180
140
169
179
142
172
ISO
145
172
181
146
175
179
150
176
179
150
177
178
130
156
180
136
162
181
142
171
180
149
176
179
139
166
180
1963...
1964.. .
1965...
181
220
241
184
225
241
184
223
244
191
225
241
191
228
236
193
232
244
202
234
Z43
202
231
240
206
241
247
211
241
241
215
236
244
216
242
246
183
223
242
192
226
241
203
235
243
214
240
244
198
232
242
1966...
1967...
1968...
252
298
348
251
295
354
257
304
351
261
305
362
265
312
372
267
317
373
273
321
362
277
327
362
279
336
389
285
338
397
291
346
407
299
349
401
253
299
351
264
311
369
276
328
384
292
344
402
271
321
376
625 . MILITARY PRIME CONTRACT AWARDS TO U.S. BUSINESS FIRMS AND INSTITUTIONS
(MIL. DOL.)
TOTAL
...
...
...
1951...
1952..*
1953...
2 528
3 682
5 479
2 295
3 001
2 959
2 381
2 892
2 088
2 462
3 760
3 059
2 038
2 759
4 292
2 042
4 097
1 156
2 035
4 241
1 002
1 089
2 333
2 116
1 004
2 623
2 143
959
3 462
3 295
265
3 399
3 148
390
10 470
10 966
6 358
9 411
9 439
6 542
10 671
4 276
4 128
9 684
8 586
1 614
40 236
33 267
20 642
1954* *.
J955...
1956...
616
1 049
1 47U
564
1 306
1 388
826
1 028
1 502
1 068
1 468
1 404
1 326
641
1 782
1 116
1 267
2 024
886
971
1 196
767
1 231
2 108
2 454
597
2 091
2 271
1 136
1 972
481
1 310
1 934
913
2 194
1 891
2 006
3 383
4 364
3 510
3 596
5 210
4 107
2 799
5 395
3 665
4 640
5 797
13 268
14 418
20 766
1957...
1958...
1959...
1 756
2 103
1 625
1 927
1 232
1 896
1 563
2 243
1 966
2 312
2 142
2 204
808
3 043
1 893
1 093
2 228
2 222
1 619
1 511
2 192
1 310
1 692
1 964
1 297
2 308
1 793
1 594
1 880
1 937
1 819
1 704
2 102
1 671
2 328
1 298
5 246
5 576
5 469
4 213
7 413
6 319
4 226
5 511
5 949
5 084
5 912
5 337
16 769
24 414
23 094
I960.. »
1961...
1962*. •
1 850
1 989
3 271
1 754
2 186
2 180
1 904
1 987
2 552
1 726
2 274
2 295
2 252
1 855
2 140
1 963
2 229
2 127
2 151
1 993
1 688
2 200
2 143
2 167
2 250
2 033
2 032
1 327
2 494
2 814
1 938
2 306
2 946
1 922
2 491
2 044
5 508
6 162
8 003
5 941
6 356
6 562
6 601
6 169
6 067
5 167
7 293
7 604
23 237
25 962
26 456
1963...
1964...
1965..*
2 429
2 372
2 097
2 611
2 958
1 846
2 463
1 966
2 451
2 023
2 502
2 8U3
2 413
2 640
2 150
2 366
1 910
2 390
2 216
2 580
2 313
2 722
1 963
2 775
2 635
2 163
2 419
2 119
1 967
2 790
1 814
2 075
2 995
2 149
1 997
2 988
7 503
7 296
6 394
6 602
7 052
7 383
7 573
6 706
7 507
6 082
6 039
6 773
27 960
27 093
30 057
1966...
1967...
1968..*
2 952
3 364
2 887
2 906
3 930
3 445
2 956
3 034
3 461
3 026
2 978
4 040
3 693
3 566
3 940
3 545
3 165
3 690
3 173
3 541
3 720
3 836
3 383
3 626
3 903
3 225
3 308
3 378
3 513
3 479
3 821
6 814
10 328
9 456
10 132
10 632
10 758
10 646
10 955
10 946
10 121
10 413
11 102
39 713
42 326
42 262
647. NEW ORDERS* DEFENSE PRODUCTS INDUSTRIES
(B1L. OOL.)
TOTAL
r
-,
...
.,.
...
...
...
1953...
2.17
2.51
1.59
1.56
2.06
2.04
1.04
1.01
0.63
1.54
1*09
1.43
6.27
5.66
2l88
4!o6
16,87
1954...
1955...
1956...
1,51
1.13
2.06
1.31
1.42
1.38
1.06
1.20
1.62
1.39
0.86
1.94
1.10
1.42
1.67
1*06
1.46
1.94
1.48
1.32
1.65
1.25
1.32
4.45
1.85
2.08
1.78
2.52
2.18
1.46
0.58
1.52
1.78
1.21
2.22
1.86
3.88
3.75
5.06
3.57
3.76
5.55
4.58
4*72
8.08
4.31
5.92
5.10
16.34
16.15
23.79
1957...
1958...
1959.. *
i.sa
1.06
1.51
1.59
1.39
1.35
1.52
2.59
1.74
1.33
1.35
2.07
1.78
1.56
1.77
1.34
1.82
1.97
0.97
1.98
1.66
1.43
1.55
1.54
1.06
1.10
1.72
0.98
1.79
1.98
2.15
2.17
1.74
1.90
1.33
1.57
4.65
5.04
4.60
4.45
4.73
5.81
3.46
4.63
4.92
5.03
5.29
5.29
17.59
19*69
20*62
I960...
1961...
1962...
1.50
1.70
1.96
1.49
2.17
2.11
2,19
1.41
2.03
1.55
1.96
2.25
1.94
1.84
2.09
2.08
1.74
2*12
1.95
1.94
1.69
2.11
2,00
1.99
2.27
2.03
2.00
1.36
2.06
2.26
1*98
1.90
1.94
1.66
2.08
3.08
5.18
5.28
6.12
5.57
5.54
6.46
6.33
5.97
5.68
5.00
6.04
7.28
22.08
22.63
25.74
1963...
1964.*.
1965...
2.49
2.51
2.34
2.57
2*40
2.49
2.56
2.15
2.32
1.95
2.38
3.14
a.so
2.37
2.36
2*18
2.25
2.49
2.36
2.91
2.54
2.51
1.64
2.81
2.58
1.69
3.16
2.16
2.42
3.02
2.20
2*02
2.85
1.75
2.26
2.64
7.62
7.06
7.15
6.63
7,00
8,0.1
7.45
6,64
6.51
6.11
6.70
6.51
27.81
27.40
32.18
1966..*
1967...
1966..*
3.34
3.01
3.51
2.92
3,32
3.86
3.06
3.07
5.07
3.23
3.17
4.43
2.90
4.04
4.01
3.36
3.93
2*96
3.34
3.60
3.67
3.14
2.99
3.91
4.25
3,36
3.55
3.12
3.96
4.41
3.09
3.64
3.89
3.55
4.36
4,20
9.32
9,40
12.44
9,49
11.14
11.40
10.73
9.95
11.13
•9.76
11.96
12.50
39.30
42.47
47,47
Note:
These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
(DECEMBER 1969)
107
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This oppendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published hero for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) scries which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures ore shown if ovailable.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on cuto which hove not been sea*
serially adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
IQ
II Q
111 Q
IV Q
200. GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT I N CURRENT DOLLARS
( A N N . RATE. BIL* DOL.)
1945
1946
...
Year
Annual
AVERAGE
IQ
II! Q
II Q
200B. QUARTER-TO-QUARTEft DIFFERENCES IN GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT.
CURRENT DOLLARS ( A N N . RATE. BIL. DOL.J
* **
219.2
242.1
311.9
208.5
231.3
1945
1946
1947
...
,, .
w*7
196. S
223.6
*..
204.0
227.6
1948*....
1949
1950
248.0
258. S
266.0
2SS.6
255,3
275.4
262.5
257 . 1
293.1
263.9
255.0
304.5
257.6
256.5
284. S
1948*..**
1949
1950
5,9
-5.4
11.0
19S1
1952
1951
318.0
339.5
364.2
325.8
339.1
367. S
332.8
345,6
365.8
336.9
357.7
360.8
328.4
345.5
364.6
1951
1952
1953
u.s
a. 6
-0.4
1954
1955
1956
360.7
386*2
410.6
360,4
394.4
416.2
364.7
402.5
420.6
373.4
408.8
429.5
364.8
398*0
419.2
1954
1955
1956
-0.1
12,8
-0.3
19S7
19S8
1959
436.9
434.7
474.0
439.9
438,3
486,9
446*3
451.4
484.0
441.5
464.4
490.5
441,1
447.3
483.7
1957
1958
1959
7.4
I960
1961
1962
503.0
503.6
547.8
504.7
514.9
557.2
504.2
524.2
564.4
S03.3
537.7
572.0
503.7
520.1
560*3
1960
1961
1962
10*1
1963
1964
1965
577,4
617.7
662.8
584.2
628.0
675.7
594. 7
638.9
691*1
605.8
645.1
710.0
590.5
632.4
684.9
1963
1964
1965
11.9
17,7
1966
1967
1968
729.5
774.2
835.3
743,3
783,5
858.7
755.9
800*4
876.4
770.7
816.1
892.5
749.9
793.5
865.7
1966
1967
1963
*.*
214. S
231.8
200C. QUARTER-TO-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES IN GROSS N A T I O N A L
PRODUCT i CURRENT DOLLARS ( A N N . RATE. PERCENT)
1945
1946
1947
...
...
S.O
. ..
IS, 2
7.2
...
20.0
7.2
1948
1949
1950
9*6
-8.0
17.2
12.4
-5.2
14.0
1951
1952*. ...
1953
17.6
3.2
7.2
1954
1955
1956*. • ..
1957
19S8.....
4,4
6.5
1.3
-6,8
9.6
12,5
0.3
5.4
19.5
3.5
19.2
*.*
7.5
4.0
S.fi)
1C. 3
6.9
1.9
17.7
1»*4
-2,1
S.4
11.4
12.4
7.0
6.S
-1,7
4,1
12,1
-S.O
8. 1
S.2
0,0
4.3
S.I
4*4
8.7
6,3
8.9
3.2
@.@
3.0
3.6
6,4
13.1
-2.9
-4*3
13,0
6*5
3.0
5.7
6.S
1.7
-0.5
9,3
7.2
-0» 9
13i.S
7.6
3*3
10,5
10.9
15*4
1U1
ieU
16. a
12,6
16*9
17.7
14.6
15,7
16.1
is. a
7.6
-3.3
9*4
7.8
3.3
8.2
5.6
12.9
11.3
9.4
6.8
10.3
12.9
13.8
9.3
23.4
...
9.2
17.6
1945
1946
1947
10.8
2.8
25.6
2.0
-3.2
15*6
8.7
-3.4
18.1
1943
1949
1950
10.0
-0.4
3.6
8.4
7.6
-2.0
4.8
14.0
-5.6
10.2
6.1
0.8
1951
1952
1953
391.4
412.1
389.6
0.0
13.6
1,6
-0.4
3.4
S.6
4.3
8.4
4*4
9.6
6.4
3.4
3.5
9.2
5.0
1954
1955
1956
402.9
428.0
4U3.6
1959
6.8
-6.0
8.4
2.3
3.2
10, S
6.0
12.0
-2.4
-4.4
11.6
5.2
2.3
5.2
5.5
19S7
195B>...*
1959
1960
1961
1962
10.0
0*4
7.6
a. 8
6. a
1.2
-0.4
7.2
5.2
-0.8
10.4
5.2
2,5
6.7
6.2
I960.....
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
3.6
8.0
10.9
4.8
6.8
7.6
7.2
6.8
9.2
7.6
4.0
10. S
5.8
6.4
9.6
1966
1967
196ft... * *
10.8
2.0
9.6
7.6
4.8
11.2
6*8
8.0
3.0
7.2
8.3
5.9
9.1
S.4
2050. QUARTER-TO-GUARTER DIFFERENCES IN GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT.
CONSTANT (1958) DOLLARS ( A N N , RATE, B I L . DOL.)
194§
1946
1947
1948
1949. . . • .
1950
1951.*..*
1952
1953
...
*.*
...
. ,.
...
2.6
2.6
-4. 2
16.3
5.8
-2.0
8*9
4,7
2.7
6.8
-i.a
**.
...
0.6
. *.
...
4.9
AVERAGE
...
...
...
S.7
s. a
8. a
8*4
9*8
11.4
19.1
205. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CONSTANT (1958) DOLLARS
( A N N , RATE» aiL. DOL.)
AVERA6E
...
AVC.MI:
10.2
4.2
...
...
10.0
a. 8
Annual
IV Q
AVUiAGfi
...
...
309.0
309.6
.1*
314.5
355*2
312*6
309.9
322.9
322.5
348.5
325,8
326,1
362.8
328.7
323.3
370.1
323*7
324.1
3SS.3
381.5
388,7
393.9
413,7
5Q8.7
408. S
383.4
395.1
412.8
435.4
445.6
407,2
442,1
444, S
•415,?
.446. '4
450,?
407.0
438.0
446.1
4B3.4
437.5
463.6
453.2
439.5
479.9
455. 3
450»7
475-0
4*f8*,»
452. S
447.3
475.9
490,2
482,6
489.7
492.8
527.7
487,3
501.5
nes.'f
519.5
1963
1964
1965
541.2
571.1
546.0
578.6
60U6
610.4
5S4.7
585.8
622.5
636.6
&88.ii
351.0
501.1
617,0
1966
1967
1968
649.1
655.0
666,5
693,3
670. S
660.2
678.0
712,6
668 . 1
683. S
718. S
6S8.1
674.6
707.6
»i.
306.4
317,1
324.5
339.6
374.8
416.4
402.1
705.8
»»*
480.4
467.?
497. a
S?,9»8
511*7
S3B.:t
S62.J
205C. QUARTER-TO-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES EN GROSS N A T I O N A L
PRODUCT, CONSTANT (19581 DOLLARS (AttN. RATE. PERCENT!
1945
1946
1947
...
...
...
2.9
3.6
14.3
2.9
-2.8
7.3
3.6
-1.4
11.7
1948
1949
1950* ....
-5.2
20.0
6.7
7.2
4,3
4.3
-2.7
0.0
11.4
-4,9
1.6
4.2
0.9
1951
1952
1953. ....
6.8
3,2
5.2
a.e
...
,*.
AVLKAGkl
' ' " " ~~
...
*^*
6 !il
3.6
3.6
—3 &•
8.C
3.2
o.a
7.2
-2.4
10.4
16.4
7.2
-2.0
4.0
7.6
4.4
-2.4
©.0
11*6
4.4
', ! .
I!.
4,4
~1 .7
13.7
5 0
4.2
0.9
19S4
1995
1956
-3.9
12.3
-0*8
7.4
2.0
6.7
-1 .1
8.5
4.3
5.8
1.7
7.7
1.0
19S4
1955
1956
- r ).6
12.0
-0.8
6.3
2.0
5.2
6.0
a, 4
-2.8
-o.a
1957
3.1
-10.7
7.0
-0.2
2.0
11.3
2.0
11.2
-4.9
-7.0
10.9
5.4
-0.5
3.4
4.7
1957
1958
1959
2. 8
-9.6
fe.O
0.0
2.0
9.6
1.6
10.0
-4.0
-6.0
9,6
4.4
9*8
-1.1
7.8
-0.5
IQ. a
i.2
-2.4
8.7
5.7
-3.6
10.2
4.9
0.8
7.0
6.6
1960
1961
1962
-G.8
-0.4
3.4
6.4
-2,0
-a. 8
1962
1963
1964
1965*.**.
2.9
9.0
13.1
4.8
7.5
3.8
8.7
7.2
12.1
7.4
2.7
14.1
6,0
6.6
12.0
1963
1964
1965
3.6
5.2
6.0
6.H
8,0
a. a
a.o
9. a
4.3
*U6
3.0
1966
1967
1968
12.5
-1.6
9*8
5.9
4.0
12*5
5.2
7,5
7.0
7.9
5.5
5.7
7.9
3.8
8.6
1966
1967
1968
3*6
2.4
7.2
3.2
4*4
4.0
4*3
3*2
3.2
4.9
3.3
5.0
1959
1960
1961,* . . .
5.1
8.0
6.0
a.o
6*4
3.8
3*0
-0,8
5.6
7.2
4,4
1 ,8
4.0
ild
s»a
8.0
3.6
••
'
-O.'l
3,0
4.0
0*?
^.7
S.I
N0te: Thece uorioo eontoin n© rovloiene but are reprinted for the convenience of the ueer.
1969)
108
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (o) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which hisrcrica) data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tobies of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Year
II Q
IQ
Quarterly
IIIQ
AVERAGE
igse-ioo)
1945
194t
1947
73.0
73.7
74)9
1948
1949. ». » *
1950
78.2
79.7
78.3
79.2
79.1
79.0
80.6
78.8
80.8
1951... ..
1952
1953
84.8
86.7
88.4
85.4
87.1
88.3
1954
1955*....
1956
89.5
90.2
92*6
1957
1958
1959
IQ
IV Q
210. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR! GROSS1 NATIONAL PRODUCT
(INDEX:
Year
Annual
2108.
II Q
Annual
IV Q
III Q
QUARTER-TO-QUARTER DIFFERENCES IN IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR
(GNP) (INDEX:
i958-ioo) 2
AVERAGE
7?!o
59,7
66.7
74.6
1945...,.
1946
1947
:::
o!?
1*2
2.1
••+
80*3
78.9
82.3
79.6
79.1
80.2
1948
1949
1950
1.2
-0.6
-0.6
1.0
-0.6
0.7
1.4
-0.3
1.8
-0.3
0.1
1.5
0.8
•0.4
0.8
85.6
87.7
88.4
86.7
88.3
88.4
85.6
87.5
88.3
1951
1952
1953
2.5
0,0
0.1
0,6
0.4
-0,1
0.2
0.6
0,1
1.1
0.6
0.0
1.1
0.4
0.0
89.6
90.6
93.4
89.5
91.0
94*6
89*8
91.6
95.4
89.6
90.9
94.0
1954
1955.....
1956
1.1
0.4
1*0
0.1
0.4
0.8
-0,1
0*4
1.2
0.3
0.6
0.8
0*4
0.4
1*0
96.1
99.3
101.1
97.1
99.7
101*5
98.0
100.1
101.9
98.5
100.6
102.1
97.5
100.0
101.6
1957.,...
1958
1959
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
0*4
0.4
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.8
0.5
0.4
1960
1961
1963
102.6
104.3
105.5
103.1
104.5
105.6
103.5
104.5
105,8
104.0
105.1
106.3
103.3
104.6
105.8
I960
1961
1962
0.5
0.3
0.4
0,5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.3'
0.3
1963
1964
1965
106.7
108.2
110.2
107.0
108.5
110.7
107.2
109.1
111.0
107.8
109.6
111.5
107.2
108.8
110.9
1963
1964
1965
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.6
0.3
0.6
0,5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0*5
1966
1967
1968
112.4
116.2
120.5
113.5
116.9
121.7
114.5
118.1
122.9
115.4
119.4
124.2
113.9
117.6
122*3
1966
1967
1968
0.9
0.8
1.1
1.1
0*7
1*2
1.0
1.2
1.2
0.9
1*3
1.3
1.0
1*0
1.2
210C. QUARTER-TO-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES AT ANNUAL RATE
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR ( G N P ) (PERCENT) 2
1945
1916
1917
...
1948
1919
1950
AVERAGE
...
264.
FED.
GOVT.
PURCHASESOF GOODS AND SERVI CESi NATIONAL DEFENSE
(ANN, RATEi BIL. DOL,) 2
AVERAGE
1945...,.
1946
1947
20.4
9.4
14.4
8*9
11*9
8.7
12.3
9.3
73,5
14.7
9*1
1948
1949
1950
9.8
12*8
12.5
10,4
13.4
12.6
10.7
13.7
14.2
12.0
13.1
17.1
10.7
13.3
14.1
4.0
6*4
1U2
6.4
-2.8
-3.2
5.2
-3.2
3.6
7.2
-1.6
9.2
-1.6
0.4
7.6
4.3
-1.8
4.3
1951
1952
1953
12.0
0.0
0.4
2.8
2.0
-0.4
0.8
2.8
0.4
5*2
2.8
0*0
5.2
1.9
0.1
1951.**..
1952
1953
24.1
42.5
49.2
30,4
45.7
49.5
37.7
47.0
48.4
42.1
48.5
47.6
33.6
45*9
48,7
1954
1955
1956
4.8
U6
4.4
0.4
1*6
3.6
-0.4
1.6
5*2
1*2
2.8
3.2
1.5
1.9
4.1
1954
1955
1956
44.4
38.7
38,4
42.0
38.2
40.4
39.9
39.2
40.4
38.5
38.1
42.1
41.2
36.6
40.3
1957
195S
1959
4.0
3.2
2.0
2.8
1.6
1.6
3.6
1.6
1.6
2.0
2.0
0.8
3.1
2*1
1.5
1957
1958
1959
43.4
44.7
46.5
44.1
45.7
46.1
44.8
46*3
45.7
44.6
46.9
45*9
44.2
45.9
46*0
1960
1961** ...
1962
2.0
1.2
1.6
2.0
0.8
0.4
1.6
0.0
0.8
2.0
2.4
2.0
1.9
1.2
I960.****
1961
1962
45.0
46.9
51.1
44.4
47.7
53.0
44.6
47.7
51.3
45.8
48*9
50.9
44.9
47.8
51.6
1963
1964
1965.....
1.6
1.6
2.0
1.2
1.2
2.0
0.8
2.4
1.2
2.4
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.8
1.8
1963
1964
1965
51.2
50.5
48.6
50.5
50.7
49.2
51.0
49.8
50.1
50.3
48.9
52.5
50.8
50.0
50.1
1966
1967
1963
3.2
2.8
3.6
4.0
2.4
4.0
3.6
4.0
4.0
3.2
4.4
4.4
3.5
3.4
4.0
1966
1967
1968
55.3
69.9
76.1
58.5
71.9
77.9
63.3
73.0
78.8
65*6
74.6
79.3
60,7
72,4
78,0
266. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
TOTAL (ANN. RATE t BIL. DOL.) 1
i.i
270, FINA L SALES* DURABLE GOODS
(ANN . RATE? BIL, OOL.)i
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
10.9
13.4
8.1
9.8
12*6
1945
1946
1947
42^4
44,2
44. 5
45.9
50.2
31.6
44.3
15.4
18.2
19.7
16.1
18.5
20.2
15,0
17.7
19.5
1948
1949
1950
47.6
49*0
50.4
46,7
50.7
52*6
48.6
50.1
62.7
49.0
49.7
59.6
48.0
49.9
56*3
21.3
23.0
24.1
21.8
22.8
24.8
22.0
23.4
25.4
21.5
22»9
24*6
1951
1952
1953
65.2
72.9
78.5
63.8
74.4
79.0
66*9
69.5
79.0
71.2
77.0
77.4
66.8
73.5
78.5
26.3
29.4
31.8
27.0
29.9
32.6
28.0
30.3
33.4
28.3
30.8
34.0
27 ..4
30.1
33.0
1954
1955
1956
75.7
77.5
84.4
74.4
81.9
86.8
73.1
85.7
87.7
75.0
65.6
91*1
74.6
82,7
87.5
1957
1956
1959
35.3
38.9
43.1
36.2
39.9
43.4
36.9
41.1
43.5
37.9
42.2
43.4
36.6
40.6
43.3
1957
1958
1959
93.7
87.1
91*6
92.8
84.9
94.2
93.6
85.7
95.0
92.4
88*0
92.2
93,1
86.4
93.2
1960
1961
1962
44*3
49.0
52.5
45.9
49.4
53.1
46.6
50.6
54.1
47.3
52.1
55.0
46.1
50.2
53.7
1960
1961
1962
96.3
93.6
103*4
98,7
95.0
105.5
97.9
97.2
107.9
96.7
100.6
108. 1
97.4
96.6
106*2
1963*.. ..
1964
1965*....
56.9
61.4
67.0
57.5
63.2
68.9
58.7
64.3
71.3
59.8
65.3
73.2
58.2
63.5
70.1
1963.,...
1964
1965
109,4
120,5
129*2
111.8
122.7
129.9
114.7
124,9
134«1
117.3
123.3
138.5
113.3
122.8
133*0
1966
1967
1968
75.2
86.4
97.1
77.7
88.1
99.4
80.1
90.0
101.7
83.0
92.9
104.8
79.0
89.3
100.7
1966
1967... * *
1968
142.2
151,9
166.4
142.6
158.3
168.9
148*1
157 ..7
173.7
151.8
160*0
176.6
146.2
157.0
171.4
19454....
1946
1917
11.8
9.3
12.2
10.0
12.7
1948
1949
1950
13.8
16.7
18.8
14.6
17.4
19.2
1951
1952
1953
20.6
22.3
24.1
1954
1955
1956
sis
•'•Historical data for these series have not previously been shown.
These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
2
(DECEMBER 1969)
109
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which hove been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series, Data ore seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <u) (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual (figures arc shown if available.
Such figures are often ba$ed on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore/they may differ slightly from annuol figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures ore shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below,
Quarterly
Year
271.
IQ
II Q
Quarterly
III Q
CHANGE I N BUSINESS I N V E N T O R I E S * DURABLE
(ANN. RATEi BIL. OOL.>
IV Q
GOODS
...
...
1.6
0.4
o.s
0.5
-4*3
3.6
1.0
-0.1
a.s
-4.6
10.8
19B1
19S2
1953
5.0
3.1
3.4
10.6
-1.8
2.1
19S4
1955
1956
-3.B
1*9
5.1
1957
1956
1959
1960
1961
1963
Annual
IQ
II Q
III Q
IV Q
F I N A L SALES i NONDURABLE Q000S
( A N N . RATEi B I L * OOL.)
274.
AVERAGE
...
...
...
...
Year
Annual
...
.. *
AVE.RAGK
79.7
66.9
9S.9
...
...
0.1
-1.3
5.3
1.7
1945
1946
1947
92.2
1.1
0.7
-2.1
4.1
1948
1949
1950
99.0
102.6
97.8
101.3
101.9
93.2
102.4
99.2
100.1
103.4
98,9
101.1
101. S
8.8
O.S
2.4
3.4
2.8
-4.3
6.9
1.1
0.9
1951
1952
1953
108,5
115.6
124.9
109.6
118*1
124.9
114.7
120.8
124*8
m.?
117,8
113,6
119,1
125.2
-3.9
4.2
2.4
-a.s
-o.i
3.7
3.0
-2.5
3.0
2.8
1954
1955
1956
124.9
12S.5
132.0
122.6
126.6
132.7
122.9
127.8
133.2
124 ,.8
131 ,,2
134..9
124.1
127.?
1.4
-6.1
2.8
3.3
-S.S
6.3
3.4
-1.1
-1.7
-1.9
1.5
3.5
1.3
-2.8
2.3
1957
1958
19S9
138.8
143.7
149.2
139.3
144.7
149.9
141.4
147.4
1S1.9
14U3
1S3,,§
140.2
145.9
151.1
8.3
-5.7
3.7
1.2
-0.6
2.8
1.9
2.2
2.9
-2.6
3.6
1.7
2.1
-0.1
2.8
I960
1961
1962
155.8
161.4
169.1
159.5
162.3
171.1
159.1
164.0
173.2
160,0
166.9
175,6
158.6
,163.7
172.3
1963** • .*
1964
1965
2,0
3.9
8.4
3.3
4.5
6.9
2.3
4.2
6.8
3.8
4*5
4.6
2.8
4. 2
6.7
1963
1964
1965
178,4
186.6
196.6
178.3
188.0
203.1
180.1
193.5
206.5
180.0
194,7
212.5
179,4
190.7
204,7
1966
1967
1968
8*2
4*2
1.9
10*6
1.5
6.8
10.2
4.4
5.1
13.2
5.6
7.4
10.5
3.9
5.3
1966
1967
1968
217.6
230.7
246.5
220.9
234.2
350.4
226.3
335.5
256.1
225*4
g35.9
256,4
222.3
£34.1
252. 3
194S
1946
1907
1.9
1948
19(49
19S0
-0.7
3.2
2.4
O.S
37S. CHANGE I N BUSINESS I N V E N T O R I E S * NONDURABLE GOODS
( A N N . RATEt Si I. POL.)
1905
1946
1947
.* *
* **
-1.4
...
...
-2.6
...
•..
-6.0
1948
1949
1950
2.9
-O.S
3.1
4.6
-1*0
1.2
5.1
-1.7
2.4
19S1
1952
1953
S.S
2.1
-0.9
4.7
-O.S
1.0
1954
19S5
1956
1.0
2.7
1*0
1957
1956
19S9
280.
AVERAGE
*..
...
94.6
...
...
97.8
*..
.« <
98.6
126*2
las.e
COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES
( A N N * RATEt B I L . O O L . )
100*6
99.3
133, a
AVEUAGE
...
...
1.3
0.2
1.1
-2.2
1945
1946
1947
...
113.5
125.6
...
115.4
127. S
.. *
119.4
128.9
* »,
U3.D
133.3
133.1
117.9
128,9
-0.7
4.3
3. a
4.0
-1.0
2.7
1948
1949
1950
136.9
143.1
143.9
138.7
140.9
149.9
143.6
140.3
158.2
145*1
139,9
166.i!
141.1
141,0
154*6
1.6
3.8
-1.7
1*7
2*6
-0.3
3.4
2.0
-0.5
1951
1952
1953
174.2
190.6
206.9
179.8
192.0
210.2
183*0
195.4
210.4
185.7
303. J»
308*1!
180.7
195.3
309.1
1.2
1*9
1.9
0.4
3.7
3.3
1.4
3.4
1.3
1.0
2.9
1,9
1954
1955
1956
206.9
215.8
236.6
206.5
222.4
241.2
207.1
227.3
244.3
;H 1 * 'i
J>32.:»
!»50.,L
208. 0
324.5
243.1
0.7
0.7
1*0
0.0
0.<4
-0.2
1.2
2.1
-0*3
2*6
3.8
0.0
1*3
a. 4
1957
1958
1959
253.7
253.5
272,7
255. S
253.1
280*1
2S8.1
259.1
280.3
856.6
26S.il
256.0
2S7.B
1960
1961
196?
1.7
2.2
3.0
2.7
2.7
3.3
1.3
1.6
a. 3
0*2
1.9
4.7
l.S
2.1
3.2
1960
1961
1962
291. 8
294. 8
317.1
295. 0
299. S
322.9
29S.9
304.7
325.7
fiW.Zl
311. Ei
328. Ci
294.2
302.6
323.6
1963
1964
1965
2.7
1.3
2.5
1.6
1*6
1*9
3.7
0.6
2.3
4.4
3.2
5.1
3.1
1.6
3.G
1963
1964
1965
333.6
3S5.1
381,3
338.1
362.0
368.6
343.1
369.9
397.0
349.2:
375. S
40 8. S
341.0
365,7
393.8
3.1
4.7
-0.3
5.6
l.g
3*1
1.7
3*4
2.1
6.7
3.9
3.1
4.3
3.5
1966
1967
1968.....
420.1
4S6.2
495.1
430.9
461.1
507.0
441.4
470.7
519.8
449.7
481.7
332,3
435. S
467 • 4
513.6
1966
1967
1968
2,6
282. P R O P R I E T O R S ' INCOME
( A N N . R A T E t 0IL. D O L . )
a.o
284.
AVERAGE
1945
1946
1947
...
34.0
37.3
...
35.9
33.6
* *.
38.4
34.8
1948
1949
1950
37. S
36.1
35.6
41.4
35.4
36.1
1951
1952.. ...
1953
41.5
41.2
41.3
1954
1955
1956
;i83*:i
RENTAL INCOME OP PERSONS
( A N N . RATEt BIL. DOL.)
a?9.i
AVENAQt;
.. *
37.9
36.2
31.4
36.5
35.5
1945
1946
1947
...
6.3
7.0
...
6.5
6*8
...
6.6
7.1
...
7.1
7.6
S.6
6*6
7.1
41.7
34.6
38*6
40.3
35.0
39.5
40.2
35.3
37. S
1948
1949
1950
7.7
8.3
9.1
7.9
8.3
9.2
8.0
8.5
9.5
3.2
8,7
9.7
8.0
8.4
9,4
41.7
42.2
40.6
42.0
43.9
39.9
42.8
41.2
40.2
42.0
42.1
40.5
1951
1952
1953
9.9
10,9
12.2
10.1
11.3
12.5
10.5
11.7
IE. 8
10.9
12.1
13.2
10.3
11. S
12.7
40.3
40*9
42.1
39.3
41*6
42.3
40.1
42,0
43.1
40*2
42.3
43.5
40.0
41.7
42.7
1954
1955....*
1956
13.2
13.8
14. 1
13.5
13.8
14.3
13.3
13.9
14.4
13.9
14.1
14.5
13*6
13.9
14.3
1957
1958
19S9
43.4
46*4
46.9
43*8
46.3
47.1
44.7
46.7
46.1
44.3
47.1
46.1
44.1
46.6
46.6
1957
1958
1959
14.5
IS, 3
15.3
14.7
15.4
15.5
15.0
15.4
IS.?
15.0
IS. k
15.8
14.8
IS. 4
15.6
1960
1961
1963
45.4
47.4
50.3
46.6
48.1
50*4
46.3
48.6
49.9
46. S
49.6
49*8
46.2
48.4
50.1
I960
1961
1962
15*8
IS. 9
16*3
15.8
15.9
16.5
15.9
16*0
16. 8
AS. 9
16.1
£7.2
1S.Q
16.0
16.7
1963
1964
1965
50. 8
51.3
54*8
50.7
52.1
56.9
51.1
52.6
58.0
51*4
53.3
59-3
51.0
52.3
57.3
1963
1964
1965
17.1
17.5
18.6
17,1
17.8
IS. 9
17.2
19. i
1=9.3
te.4
17.1
19.0
19.0
1966
1967
1968
62.1
60.6
63.2
61*2
61*7
63,6
61.1
62.6
64.1
60.8
62.3
64.1
61.3
61.9
63*8
1966
1967
1968
19*6
20.6
21.1
19.8
20.8
21.2
20.1
20.9
21*2
20.3
21.0
,1.4
20.0
20.8
21.2
Note:
17.X
18.1
Hioterieol data for thooo corieo have not previously been ehown.
1969)
110
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data ore seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Year
286.
IQ
II Q
Quarterly
III Q
IV Q
CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY V A L U A T I O N ADJUSTMENT
( A N N . RATE* B I L . OOL.)
1945
Year
Annual
IQ
II Q
Annual
IV Q
II1Q
288. NET INTEREST
( A N N . RATEt 8IL. D O L , )
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
1945
1946
1947
1.5
2.0
1.5
2,0
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.8
2.2
1*5
1.9
1947
15.3
22.6
25.8
isie
2o!2
26.1
22)9
27.7
19.2
19,3
25.6
1948
1949
1950
31.5
32*8
31.7
33.4
30.5
35.5
32.9
31.7
40.0
34.4
28.4
43.4
33.0
30.8
37.7
1948
1949
1950
1*9
1.9
2.0
1.8
2.0
2,0
1.8
2.0
2.0
1.8
1*9
2.0
1.8
1.9
2.0
1951
1952
1953
42*5
41.1
42.9
42.4
38.7
41*9
42.8
38.1
40.5
43.5
42.1
33.2
42.7
39.9
39.6
1951
1952
1953
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.2
2.5
2.7
2.3
2.6
2.7
2.4
2.7
3.1
2.3
2,6
2*8
1954
1955
1956
35.6
46.0
46.0
36.6
46.9
46.1
38.2
47.2
45.5
41.3
48.1
46.3
38.0
46.9
46.1
1954
1955
1956
.3
.0
3.5
4.0
4*4
3.8
4.1
4.6
4.0
4.1
5.0
3.6
4.1
4.6
1957
1958
1959
47.7
36.4
50.4
46.6
37.8
55.2
45.9
42.0
50.6
42.1
47*6
50.3
45.6
41*1
51.7
1957
1958
1959
*1
.3
,1
5*4
6.6
7.0
5,7
7.0
7.0
6.1
7.3
7.3
5.6
6.8
7.1
1960
1961
1962
53.3
45.0
54.3
51*6
49*3
54.9
48.6
51.1
56.1
46.1
55.4
57.4
49.9
50.3
55.7
1960
1961
1962
7.9
9.2
10.8
8*0
9.7
11.3
8.5
10.2
11.8
9.0
10*8
12.4
8.4
10.0.
11.6
1963
1964
1965
56.0
64.9
73.1
58.0
66.2
74,4
60.3
67.6
76.5
61.4
66.4
80.3
58.9
66.3
76.1
1963
1964
1965
13.0
15.1
17.3
13.5
15.5
17.9
14.2
16.0
18.5
14.7
16.6
19*0
13.8
15.8
18.2
1966
1967
1968
81.5
78.3
82*5
82.1
78.3
88.2
82.5
79.1
90.6
83.7
81.1
90*3
82.4
79.2
87.9
1966.....
19.9
23.5
26.7
21.0
24,3
27.5
21.8
25.1
28.4
22.8
25.9
29.3
21.4
24.7
27.9
1946... ..
290.
GROSS SAVING— PRIVATE S A V I N G PLUS GOVERNMENT SURPLUS OR
D E F I C I T * ( A N N . RATEt B I L . D O L . )
1967
1968
292 . PERSONAL SAVING
, RATE* B I L , D O L . )
AVERAGE
1945
1946
1947
26.6
42.5
35^6
40.0
38 .3
40*1
45.3
1948
1949
1950
49.4
42. 2
39.4
51.8
34.7
47.8
49.9
35.8
51.9
1951
1952
1953
56.4
54.0
48.9
60.1
46.7
49*9
1954
1955
1956
44.6
58.7
70.7
1957
1958
1959
AVERAGE
(ANN
42.0
34le
1945
1946
1947
17,9
10.4
16.7
4.5
13,4
8.1
12*8
6.6
29.6
15.2
7.3
48.8
31.3
62.1
50.0
36.0
50.3
1948
1949
1950
9.1
11.4
17.8
12.8
9.1
12.9
16.4
9.3
6.7
15.4
8.1
14.7
13*4
9.4
13*1
55.5
47.3
49.1
52.9
50*1
42.1
56.2
49.5
47.5
1951
1952
1953
10.3
18.1
16.8
20.1
16.5
19.0
19*4
20.6
18.5
18.9
17.0
19.2
17.3
18.1
18.3
46.9
64.3
71.9
48.2
66.9
73.2
54.6
69.9
74.6
48.6
65.0
72.6
1954.....
1955
1956
18.6
13.7
18.7
15,7
14.9
20.4
15.3
16.8
21.2
16.0
17.3
22.0
16.4
15.8
20.6
73.0
58.0
69.6
72.7
54.1
78.5
72.9
58.3
71.5
65.9
66.0
75-3
71.1
59,1
73.7
1957
1958
1959
20.4
2U2
20.6
21.8
20.7
21.2
21.5
23.2
15*9
19.9
24.1
18*4
20.7
22.3
19*1
1960
1961
1962
83.6
67.9
83.2
80.0
73.7
85.9
76.7
77.2
86.1
70.2
82.5
85*2
77.6
75.3
85.1
I960...*.
1961
1962
18.1
13.4
22.3
16.5
20.2
23.9
18.3
22.1
20*9
16*0
23.3
18.9
17.0
21.2
21.6
1963
1964
1965
84.4
95*8
112.8
90.0
98.8
114.3
91*2
102.2
115.5
96-6
107.3
118.7
90.6
101.0
115.3
1963
1964
1965
19.3
22.0
24.7
19.2
27.7
24.9
18.8
25.6
32.3
22.5
29.5
31.8
19.9
26.2
28.4
1966
121.0
117.5
120.5
126.3
113.6
128.8
123.5
119.9
129.1
128.8
125.6
135.4
124.9
119.2
128.4
1966
1967
1968
29.6
40.0
39.9
31.2
37.7
42.3
31.6
40.7
33.2
37.7
43.1
38.0
32,5
40.4
38.4
1967.. ...
1968
294.
3e!e
UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS PLUS INVENTORY V A L U A T I O N
ADJUSTMENT ( A N N . RATE* BIL. DOL.)
AVERAGE
1945
1946
1947
ill
4.9
5\3
8.5
4.0
8.8
5.0
9.4
4.6
7.9
1948
1949
1950
12.1
14.2
9.9
13.7
13,3
10.9
13.0
14.3
11.2
14.7
10.9
12.3
1951
1952
1953
8.2
13.3
12.9
11*8
11*4
11.0
14.4
11.0
10.2
1954
1955
1956
9.7
15.1
13.2
10.9
15.5
13.0
1957
1959
13.5
8.0
15.1
1960
1961
1962
296, CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES! CORPORATE AND
( A N N . R A T E t BIL. D O L . )
NONCORPORATE
AVERAGE
11.3
9*9
1945
1946
1947
9.6
U.O
9.7
12*0
10.0
12.5
10*3
13.3
13. U
13.2
11.1
1948
1949.****
1950
13.8
15.8
17.9
14.3
16.3
18.0
14.7
16.8
18.5
15.1
17,4
18.9
14.5
16*6
18.3
13.6
12.8
7.7
12.0
12.1
10.4
1951.....
1952...*.
1953
19,8
22.8
24.3
20.8
23.0
25.2
21.7
23.3
26.1
22.5
23,7
27,1
21.2
23.2
25.7
11.0
14.5
13.6
12.6
14.6
12.8
11.0
14.9
13.2
1954
1955
1956
27.4
30.1
33.6
27.9
31.0
33.9
28.4
32.0
34.2
29.1
32.8
34.6
26.2
31.5
34.1
13.1
8.9
17.1
12.6
11.0
14.6
11.0
14.0
14.7
12.6
10.5
15.4
1957
1958
1959
35.6
38.7
39.9
36.6
38.6
41.1
37.6
39.0
41,7
38.5
39*4
42.8
37.1
38.9
41.4
15.0
10*8
16.2
14.1
13.5
15.9
12.9
13.9
16.3
11.4
15.7
17.2
13.4
13.15
16.4
1960
1961
1962
43.4
44.1
49.2
43.4
45.0
49.7
43,4
45.6
50.2
43.4
46.3
50.8
43.4
45.2
50.0
1963
1964
1965
15.3
19.8
24*4
15.5
20.4
24.2
17.1
20.8
25.0
16.8
19*5
26*1
16.2
20.1
24.9
1963
1964
1965
51.4
54.8
58.2
52.4
55.7
59.2
52.9
56.5
60.3
53.8
57.3
61.3
52.6
56.1
59.8
1966. ....
1967
1968
26.2
24.8
20.4
26.8
24.1
24.1
26.9
24.6
25.6
29.6
25.5
23.6
27.4
24.8
23.4
1966
1967
1968
62,5
66.8
71.7
63.5
67.9
73,0
64.4
69.2
73.7
65.3
70.4
74.6
63.9
68,6
73.3
1958.*..*
Note;
ia.2
Historical data for t heee series have not previously been shown-
(DECEMBER 1969)
111
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back la 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"lndex"-$eries Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for coch scries. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures arc shown if available.
Such figures are often bdsed on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in tin? basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
II Q
IQ
Year
Annual
IIIQ
IV Q
298. GOVERNMENT SURPLUS OR DEFICIT* TOTAL
(ANN. RATE* BIL. DOL,)1
1945
1946
1947
-5.7
16.1
4.9
14.9
10.9
10.7
11.7
16.0
1948
19(19
1930
14*2
0.7
-6.2
10.8
-3.?
5.9
5.9
-4,6
15.6
3.5
-5.0
16.2
8*5
-3.2
7.8
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
19S7
18.0
-0.2
-5.0
7.6
-4.4
-5.2
-0.7
-7.2
-5.6
-1.5
-3.4
-11.8
5.8
-3.8
-6.9
1934
1955
1956
-11*1
-0.3
5.3
-7.6
2.4
4.6
-6.5
4.1
4.2
-3,1
5.1
5.2
1957
1958
1950
3.6
-10.5
-6.1
1.2
-14.7
-0.9
1.2
-13.6
-0.8
1960
1961
1962
7.2
-5.4
-4.5
6.0
-4.9
-3.6
1963
1964
1963
-1.5
-0.8
S.S
1966
1967
196S
2.7
-14.1
-11.5
-ie.o
1945
1946
1947
II
••
23 828
24 984
26 476
21 476
31 o?a
-7.0
2,7
4,9
1954
1955
1956
19 980
37 408
37 740
22 708
37 232
34 116
26 804
38 636
33 168
as 224
41 04©
33 338
24 429
38 579
34 590
-3.5
-11.5
-0.7
0,7
-12.5
-2.1
1957
1958
1959
34 504
25 844
41 116
35 480
33 940
50 236
29 956
29 900
44 972
26 108
39 £64
37 £26
31 512
39 797
43 390
2.1
-4.4
-1.4
-0.6
-2.8
-1.7
3.7
-4.3
-2.9
1960
1961
1962
46 068
29 092
43 120
37 484
37 816
44 792
33 952
39 556
45 372
31 164
42 320
46 672
37 167
37 121
44 939
3.0
-5.0
5.9
2*5
-0.9
-2.2
3.5
1.2
-0,4
1.8
-1.4
2.2
1963
1964
1965
46 456
50 616
65 764
50 252
56 588
63 816
50 180
57 976
67 588
54 ,364
56 ¥72
66 !563
SO 313
55 538
65 934
4.7
0.6
-14.6
-3.5
-3.8
-13.4
-0,9
1.1
-14.5
-6.7
1966
1967
1968
71 304
56 756
69 608
77 848
56 652
70 236
57 528
66 796
85 773
46 623
79 :>84
97 ''49
63 327
65 397
80 841
-10.8
17 8?,©
Oil. NEWLY APPROVED CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS— 17
INDUSTRIES
3
AVERAGE
:::
:::
90. a
79. a
88.5
89.8
79.8
95.2
87.7
77.3
96.1
89.7
80.2
90.4
1948
1949
1950
1951... ..
1952
1953
96.8
91.7
96.6
95.8
38.4
96.8
92.2
89.3
95.1
91.1
95.8
88.4
94.0
91.3
94.2
1954
195S
1956
84. 3
87.4
39.4
83.2
90.2
88.2
82.7
91.1
85.6
83.9
91.5
87.6
1957
1958
1959
86.7
71.9
80.6
8S.O
71.2
34.9
84.0
75.3
80.7
1960
1961
1962
84.1
74.5
82.0
82.0
78.0
32*4
1963
1964
1965
82*0
84.5
88.5
1966
1967
1968
90.5
87.1
84.9
...
...
1945
1946
1947
:::
...
;'..
...
26 317
22 734
AVEKAQtl
(DIFFUSION INDEX— I-QUARTER SPAN)
:::
<;•.
...
:::
...
'.!'.
"!'
1951
1952
1953
:.:
71
*47
35
::!
83.5
90.0
87.7
1954
1955
1956
38
88
65
59
59
35
41
88
35
65
47
33
SI
70
47
78.6
77.7
79.8
83.6
74.0
81.5
1957
1958
1959
47
26
53
41
47
76
24
74
68
32J
59
35
41
80.0
80,2
82.4
76.5
81.5
81.8
80.6
78.6
82.2
1960
1961
1962
50
S3
59
29
59
47
sa
76
59
655
47
71
11
59
S9
83.9
85.7
88.4
83.7
86.3
88.5
83.7
86,2
88.6
83.3
85.7
88.5
1963
1964
1965
41
53
38
65
76
71
6S
59
65
65
35
59
60
56
71
90.8 .
85.0
84.8
90.6
84.3
84.0
90.0
84,8
84.2
90.5
85.3
84.5
1966
1967
1968
65
47
47
62
53
65
29
53
71
39
|!
U
47
91
OIL NEWLY APPROVED CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS— 17 INDUSTRIES
(DIFFUSION INOEX— 3-QUARTER SPAN)3
:::
;::
...
** *
.*!
034. PROFITS. MANUFACTURING* FNCB--ABOUT 1*000 CORPORATIONS
(DIFFUSION INDEX — I-QUARTER SPAWP
AVERAGE
...
59
53
75
34
.48
47
SS
40
63
46
46
46
42
39
53
34
58
47
!>S
ti5
Ul
44
52
47
!S2
J>3
53
56
49
1948
1949
1950
52
27
60
*47
:::
1^51
1952
1953
*65
29
94
68
§0
88
S3
59
82
44
82
76
38
55
85
51
1954
1955
1956
57
59
52
53
65
48
SO
53
43
1957
195B
1959
3S
18
82
24
47
38
13
74
82
6
94
47
21
58
75
1957
1958
1959
52
40
58
46
42
63
42
71
48
1960
1961
1962
IS
59
38
6
65
65
32
71
53
56
65
68
27
65
56
1960
1961
1962
52
47
54
40
60
47
1963
1964
1965
71
88
82
71
59
82
82
65
82
82
68
76
76
70
80
1963.*,,.
1964
1965
50
59
57
1966
1967
1968
76
53
53
47
41
59
47
59
62
35
41
76
51
48
62
1966
1967
1968
59
48
55
data for thio oorioo has not previously been shorn.
"Now Foaturoo ana Changes for thio Issue," page ill.
Thooe oorioo eentain ne rovisiono but ore reprinted for the convenience of the user.
58
AVERAGE
56
32
70
:::
|*|
*m
...
...
::;
§8
...
;.:
:::
sa
...
1945
1946
1947
:::
...
1954
1955
1956
112
:::
23 892
26 656
91.1
83.9
81.9
:::
1951
1952
1953
1948
1949
1950
tj
Soo
3
«».
••
»
1945
1946
1947
1951
19S2
1951
;•
AVERAGE:
Jj
850. RATIO* OUTPUT TO CAPACITY* MANUFACTURING
{PERCENT)3
1948
1949
19§0
Annual
IV Q
III Q
II Q
110. TOTAL FUNDS RAISED BY PRIVATE NONFINANCIAL SORROWE.RS
IN CREDIT MARKETS (ANN. RATEi MIL. DOL,^
AVERAGE
-39.5
5.4
14.4
1945
1946*..*.
1947
1 Q
;>a
:t?
£18
t>8
44
S3
54
45
53
48
t>7
£>6
56
46
55
SI
59
58
56
56
59
57
£5
£6
60
55
58
58
59
46
45
50
52
56
S4
59
58
56
51
54
1969)
INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
•
217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
. . . 9,21,38
9,21,38,56
9
9
9
A2. Notional and Personal Income
222
224.
225.
226.
Personal income current dollars . . . . . » • • • •
Disposable personal income, current dol
Disposable personal income, constant dol ...
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
Dec. '69
5,65,71
5,65,71,87 Dec. '69
5,65
Dec. '69
5,65
5,65
July '69
July '69
July '69
July '69
10
10
10
10
5,65
Aug.
Aug.
10
5,65
Aug.
10
5,65
Aug.
5,65
5,65
5,65
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Oct.
'69
'69
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
11
11
11
11
233. Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. . .
11
234. Automobiles, current dollars
11
236. Nondurable goods, current dollars
11
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240. Gross private domestic investment, total
243 Producers' durable equipment
12
12
12
12
12
12,26
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66,74
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
AS- Foreign Trade
253 Imports of goods and services
A6. Gov, Purchases, Goods and Services
260- Federal, State, and local governments
262. Federal Government
264 National defense
266, State and local governments
13,47
13,49
13,49
5,67
14
14
14,53
14
5,67
5,67
5,67
5,67
5,67,85
5,67
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
May '69
May '69
May '69
Aug.
Aug.
Dec.
Dec.
'69
'69
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
15
5,67
Dec. '69
Oct.
'69
15
15
5,67
5,67
Dec.
Dec.
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
15
5,67
Dec.
'69
Oct.
'69
16
16
16
16
16
5,67
17
17
5,67
5,67
5,68
5,68
5,68
5,68
Dec. '69
Dec. '69
Dec. '69
Dec. '69
Dec. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Dec. '69
Dec. '69
Oct.
Oct.
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
296. Capital consumption allowances
'69
'69
'69
'69
17
17
17
5,68
5,68
5,68
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
18,36
6,69
18
4. Nonagri. placements, all industries
18
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
*5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance . . . 18,36
6,69
49.
4fi
48.
*41.
42.
Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
HelD'wanted advertising
Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
Employees on nonagri. payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate
40. Unemployment rate, married males
*44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
6,69
6,69
18
6,69
19
19
19
19,38
19
20,38
20
20
20,39
6,69
6,69
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
Oct. '69
Mar. '69
Oct. '69
Mar. '69
Oct. '69
Mar.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
Mar.
Mar.
Oct.
Mar.
Mar.
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
*52. Personal income
53, Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . .
*56 Manufacturing and trade sales
*54 Sales of retail stores
Tables
Aug. '68
June '69
Aug.
'68
6,, 65, 71 Dec. '69
6,65,71,87 Dec. '69
6,71,99
Dec. '68
6,71
July '69
6,71
July '69
6,71
May '69
6,71
July '69
May '69
6,71
Oct.
Oct.
Nov.
July
July
Feb.
July
'69
'69
'68
'68
'68
'69
'68
13
*6.
8
*10,
New business incorporations
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts total value
Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . .
23,36
23
23,36
23
.23,36
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
Apr. '68#
Mar. '68
Sep. '68 Sep. '68
11.
24.
9,
7,
*29.
New capital appropriations, manufacturing. 24
New orders, mach. and equip, industries . .24
24
Constr. contracts, com. and indus
24
Private nonfarm housing starts
24,36
New bldg. permits, private housing
6,72
6,72
6,73
6,73
6,73
Aug. '67
Sep. '68 Sep. '68
May '67
Apr. '69
May '68
June '68 Apr. '69
96.
97.
*61.
69.
6,73
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries.' 25
6,73
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing . 25
7,73,79
Business expend., new plant and equip . . 25,39,40
Machinery and equipment sales and
7,73
25
business construction expenditures
B4. Inventories and Inventor/ Investment
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus .... 12,26
26,37
37. Purchased materials, higher inventories .. 26
20. Change in materials, supplies inventories . 26
26
26. Buying policy, production materials
Sep. '68
Sep. '68
Sep. '68 Sep. '68
Aug. '67
Nov. '68 Nov. '68
Sep. '68# Sep. '684
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Aug.
Dee.
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
69
Oct. '69
'68 Feb. '69
'68
'68 Sep. '68
'68
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Jan.
Sep.
Jan.
Sep.
'68
'68
'69
'68
28,37
28,37,64
28,37
7,75
7,75
7,75
Apr. '69 Apr. '69
June '69 May '69
July '69 July '68
28
28
28,37
7,75
7,75
7,75
July '69 July '68
Mar. '69 Mar. '69
Nov. '68 Nov. '68
29
29,55
7,75
7,75,86
June '69
June '69
29
29,39
7,75
7,75
July '69 July '68
Dec. '68 Nov. '68
30
30
30
30,37
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
Oct.
Oct.
Mar.
Jan.
'69 Aug. '68
'69 Aug. '68
'69
'69 July '64
110 Total private borrowing
30
31
31
31
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
June
Dec.
Feb.
June
'69 July '64
'69 July '64
'69
'69
114 Treasury bill rate
116 Coroorate bond yields
32
32
32
32
7,77
7,77
7,77
7,77
Jan.
Apr.
June
Jan.
'68
'68
'68
'68
7,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
Jan.
Jan.
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
'68
'69
'69
'68
'68
6,78
Sep. '69
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
Sep.
Jan.
Jan.
Sep.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
32.
25.
•71.
65.
Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . .27
27
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . . .27,39
Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods . 27
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23 Industrial materials prices
*19 Stock orices 500 common stocks
*lfi CorooratB orofits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities
58, Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
68, Labor cost per unit of gross product,
*62
Labor cost oer unit of output rnffi
B6. Money and Credit
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
117
66
*72.
*67.
118
32
Municipal bond yields
33
Consumer installment debt
Com. and industrial loans outstanding ... 33,39
33,39
Bank rates on short-term bus. loans
33
Mortgage yields residential
7,66,74
Sep. '68
Feb. '69
Sep. '68
June ' 69
June '69
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
June '69
Aug.
'68
'69
'69
June '69
'68#
Aug.
Aug.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
9,21,38
9,21,38,56
21,38,63
21,38
.21
22,38
22
22,38
EJ3. Fixed Capital Investment
15 Profits oer dollar of sales mfs
A8. National Income Components
A9. Saving
290 Gross saving private and government
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
271. Change in business inventories, durable
284 Rental income of persons
286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj
288 Net i nterest
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
274 Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories,
nondurable goods
Charts
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) issue date)
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS»Con.
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
200 GNP in current dollars • •
?rK PNP in IQ^R dnllar<;
*?in Imnlirit nrirp Hpflatnr
Current issue
(page numbers)
'6df
'68
June '69
B7. Composite Indexes
8 10. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj . .34
811. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse
trend adjustment
34
820. 5 coincident indicators
34
830. 6 lagging indicators
35
813. Marginal employment adjustments
35
814, Capital investment commitments
35
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
35
816. Profitability
35
817. Sensitive financial flows
Nov.
'68
'69 Sep. '69
'69 Nov. '68
'69 Nov. '68
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
113
Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
C, ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
D4. Price Movements
Bus, expend, new plant and equip
Manufacturers' sales total
Mfrs ' inventories book value
Condition of mfrs,' inventories
25,39,40
41
41
41
41
420, Household income compared to year ago .... 42
425. Probability of change, household income . • • 42
42
435, index of consumer sentiment
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
D. OTHER KEY INDlCATORS-Con.
Cl. Aggregate Series
61.
410,
412.
414,
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
. . . . 42
73,79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
Nov.
'68
168
'68
'68
'68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'69
'68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
781
782
783
784
Consumer price
Consumer price
Consumer price
Consumer price
index
index
index
index,
all items
food
commodities
services
750.
58.,
751.
752.
Wholesale price index, all commodities . . , 55
Wholesale price index mfd. goods
* 29,55
Wholesale price index, proc. foods, feeds. . 55
55
Wholesale price index, farm products
54,62
54
54
54
8,86
ee
86
86
8,86
86,75
86
86
May
May
May
May
June
tTyiiO
June
June
"69
'69
'69
'69
'69
' 6!)
' 69
' 69
May
May
May
May
June
June
June
June
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
C2. Diffusion Indexes
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade
D444 Net sales manufacturing and trade
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade
D450. Level of inventories, mfg. and trade
D460. Selling prices mfg. and trade
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade
D466, Selling prices, retail trade
061, Bus, expend., new plant and equip
D48Q, Freight carloadings
480. Change in freight carloadings
,.
43
43
43
43
60
80
80
80
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
'69
'69
-69
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
44
44
44
44
44
30
80
80
SO
80
Feb.
'69
Feb.
'69
Feb. '69
Feb.
'69
Feb.
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
45
45
43
81
81
81
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
500 Merchandise trade balance
205. Actual GNP in 1958 dollars
206. Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207, GNP gap (potential less actual)
E2- Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing. • •
351. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg, and trade •
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
353. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
personal income « *
855, Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
unfilled to persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm .
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers . .
859, Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production of nonsupv. workers. .
857 Vacancy rate total rental housing
June '68
Juno '68
8, £8
8,88
United States
Canada
United Kingdom. • •
France
West Germany
Japan
OECD European countries
Italy
21,38,63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
Dee.
'68
Dec.
'69
Deo. '69
Dee. '69
Dee.
'69
Dee.
'69
Dee,
'69
Dee.
'69
Nov. '68
,
,
28,37,64
64
64
64
64
64
64
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Oct.
Oat.
Oat.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oat.
July '69
July '69
May '69
May '69
48
83
July '69
May '69
48
48
13,49
13,49
83
83
83
83
July
July
July
July
May
May
May
May
49
49
83
83
July '69
July '69
May '69
May '69
540. Investment income, military sales, and
services exports ............ • •
541. Foreigners' investment income, military
49
83
July '69
May '69
542 Income on U S investments abroad
49
50
50
S3
84
84
July '69
July '69
July '69
May '69
May '69
May '69
50
50
50
50
50
50
84
84
84
84
84
84
July
July
July
July
July
July
'69 May '69
'69 May '69
'69 May '69
'69 May '69
'69 May '69
'69 May '69
51
51
51
51
51
51
84
84
84
84
84
84
July
July
July
July
July
July
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
8,85
8,85
8,85
July '69 July '68#
July '69 July '68# F3. Stock Price Indexes
July '69 July '6B#
19. United States
Dee.
'69 Get. '69
143 Canada
Get. '69
142 United Kinsdoni
Oct. '69
146. France
Dee.
'69 Sep"'68#
145. West Germany
]AQ lanan
Deo.
'69
E3. Dtffusion^ndexes
01. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
06, New orders, durable goods industries
Oil New capital appropriations mfg
034 Profits manufacturing
D19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
023 Industrial materials prices
05, Initial claims, State unemploy, insurance. .
041. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
058, Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
054 Sales of retail stores
E5. Rotes of Change
200 GNP in current dollars
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators.
48. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
52 Personal income «
55. Index of whsle. prices, Indus, commodities
781 Index of consumer orices all items
Juno '68
New.
New.
Dee.
June '69
Get.
Oat.
N©v.
Aug.
'69
'69
'68
'68#
Juiy*'68
Nov. '68
June '69
May '69
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
D3. Federol Government Activities
Fed. balance, nat'l income and prod. acct. . .52
Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod, acct . • 52
Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. . . 52
14,53
National defense purchases
53
Defense Dept. obligations, total
53
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
53
New orders, defense products industries
53
New orders defense products
33
Military contract awards in U,S
8,67,85
8,85
8,85
8,85
8,85
8,85
//The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
July '68
May '69
83
83
114
July '69
Mir. '69
AHR. '69
Aug. '69
May '69
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Ost. '67
Oct. '67
47
13,47
600.
601.
602.
264,
616.
621.
647.
648.
625.
8,88
8,88
8,88
98
98
98
98
98
98
98
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
Payments, transportation and services
U.S. direct investments abroad
Foreign direct investments in U,S
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Govt. grants and capital transactions
Banking and other capital transactions
58
58
SB
58
54,62
62
62
62
62
62
62
83
549.
561.
5SO.
565.
564.
570.
575.
'68
........
July '69 May '69
a,83
Pawmpnte hu II ^ tr^iuplprQ ihrnnrt
Nov.
Bee.
'69
Doe.
'69
Sep. '69
Sep.
'69
Sep.
'69
Sep. '69
Sep.
'69
Sep.
'69
Sep. '69
8,83
KdR
"68
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
May '69
536 Merchandise exports adjusted
Dee.
'69
'68
June '69
Sev. '69
May '69
534 U S official reserve assets
252 Exports of floods and services
253 Imoorts of soods and services
'68
91,93
91,93
91,96
91,97
Aug.
'69
'69
'69
'69
Sop,
60
60
60
60
Aug. '68#
Apr. '69
'69
'69
'69
'69
8,88
'69
'68
'69
Bec^. '68
Doe.
'69
Boa.
'69
Kay '69
Apr. '69
Apr. '69
Apr. '69
Apr. '69
June '69
8,82
8,82
8,82
530. Liquid liabilities to foreigners
532. Liquid and n on liquid liabilities to foreign
57
Fob.
Sep.
89,92
89, 92
89
90
90,93
90,94
90,94
46
46
46
47
520, U.S. bal. of pmts., liquidity bal. basis
522, U.S. bal. of pints., official settlements
47
basis
525, Net capital movements, liquidity bal. basis. . 47
527. Net capital movements, official settlements
8,88
j Deo. '69
Kay '69
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
May '69
May '69
D2. Bolonce of Payments and Components
57
8, 08
Aug. '69
Fob.
'68
May '69
May '69
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
8,«8
8,88
8,82
8,82
'68#
57
57
58
58
46
46
506. Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor
9,21,38,56 6,65,71,87 i:ce. '69 Get. '69
56
87
56
3,37
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
F1. Consumer Price Indexes
781. United States
133, Canada
132. United Kingdom
4
«
136, France
138. Japan
137, Italy
F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47
123
122
126.
125
128.
121.
127.
'67
'67
'67
'67
"67
'67
'67
May '69
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk
(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "0" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and
are obtained from the same sources.
244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4, B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6)
A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -• Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al r B2, B8, E5)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2t B8, El, E5)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). -- Depart*
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). - - Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -*
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6,D3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). -- Department ol Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A?)
274. Final sales, nondurable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A?)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).. Department of Commerce, Office of Easiness Economics
(A7)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8)
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
292. Personal saving (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential
{Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(B3, B8)
11. Newly approved capita) appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q).-National Industrial Conference Board (B3.E3)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). •- Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)., -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(B5, 88)
|:
284. Rental income of persons (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -•• Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
*5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3, E4)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). -- McGrawHill Information Systems Company. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(B3)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M). -• McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)
(A9)
B Cyclical Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1.B8, E3, E4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(81)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(81, 68)
17. Index of price per unit of labor cost -- ratio, index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to
seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees
(sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B5, B8)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). -- Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(B5, BB, E3, E4, F3)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
the Census
(B4)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B5)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). « Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(85, B8t E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B3)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). -- National
Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(83, 88)
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(84, B8)
Continued on reverse
115
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (Iff). - Chicago Purchasing Agents Association
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and
life insurance companies (M). - Institute of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing
and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S.
Savings and Loan League; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census.
(B6)
37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). - National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B4)
39. Percent of consumer Installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). -- American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964}
(B6)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
{61}
*41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M}. -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4}
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M}. •- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl}
"•43. Unemployment rate, total (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, 68)
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, 68)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). •• Department of Labor, Manpower Administration
(Bl)
46, Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). -• National
Industrial Conference Board
(Bl}
*47 Index of industrial production (M). - Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B2, 08, E3, E4, E5, F2)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). -• Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, E5)
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations - ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
"71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
"72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). •- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B6, B8)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (I/I). •- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(86)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ)» -National Industrial Conference Board
(B3)
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M), -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
* 113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M). - Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M), -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(86}
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department
(B6)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). -- First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department(86)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). -- The Bond
Buyer
($6)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department
of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(66}
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM). -- Department of
Labor,Manpower Administration;seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
(Bl)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
*52. Personal income (M). •- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, B8h E5)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators - reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*54. Sates of retail stores (M). •- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(82, B8, £3, E4, E5)
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, E5)
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M). • - Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8)
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)
"61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).»
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(83, 88, Cl, C2)
'"62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
65. Manufacturers1 inventories of finished goods, book value, all
manufacturing industries (EOM). --- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(g4J
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). •- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(66, 86)
116
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
(87}
811. Twelve leading indicators -- composite index prior to reverse
trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19,
23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B?)
813. Marginal employment adjustments - leading composite index
(includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M). - Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
{B?}
814. Capital investment commitments - leading composite index
(includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing - leading composite
index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37) (M). *- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
816. Profitability - leading composite index (includes series 16,
17, and 19) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B7)
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census snd Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). -• Departmait of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low(EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Offic3
of Business Economics
(Cl)
416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing opacity as inadequate for prospective
operations over the next VI months, less percent classifying
existing capacity as excessive (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office of Businsss Eccnomtcs
(Cl)
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). -- Department d
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(C!l)
425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease!, and increase less decrease) h
income of households (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Cl)
430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
435. Index of consumer sertiment (Q). ••- University of Michigan,
Survey Research Center
(Cl|
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc
(Used by permission. This fieries may not be reproduced with
out written permission from the source.)
{C2;
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Oun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
• without written permission from .the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without writtw peimission from the source.) (C2)
0460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by pemssion. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). •- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. Tiiis series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D464. Sell ing prices, wholesale trade (Q). - Dun aid Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. THs series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2}
D48Q. Freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American Railroads
(C2)
480. Change in freight carloadings (Q). - Association of American
railroads
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
section B.
See in
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in
section A.
817. Sensitive financial flows •• leading composite index (includes
series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
252, Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in section
A.
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7, E5)
253. Imports of goods and services:
(Q). --See in section A.
830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(87}
C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.
U.S. balance of payments
264. Federal Government purchases ®f goods and services, national
defense (Q). - See in section A
500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of thfi Census
(01)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau cf the Census
(01)
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 116)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (Iff). •- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(01)
508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M).-McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(01)
512. General imports, total (Iff). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(01)
520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in
U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to
all foreigners) (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change
in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and
certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official
agencies) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
525. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on liquidity
balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
527. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -• and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to
number of persons unemployed (Iff).-- Department of Labor
Manpower Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D3)
601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
accounts (Q).-• Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(03)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (Si). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing •• unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -•
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
(03)
616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
military assistance (M). -• Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (Iff). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(03)
625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(03)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, D5, D6, Dll, 019, D23, D41, D47, D54, 058, D61,
and section C for D440, 0442, D444, 0446, D450, D460, D462, 0464,
0466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)
647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
532. Liquid and certain non liquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(02)
648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(03)
750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (Iff). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ)- " Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(02)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)
541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). •- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)
546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). •• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
548. Receipts lor transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -•
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (Wl). •- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
(D4, E5, Fl)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (Iff) -- Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). •- Dominion Bureau
of Statisties (Ottawa)
(F2)
782. Index of consumer prices, food (Iff). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (Iff). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (Iff). -- S tat istisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECO
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (Iff). -- Institut National
dela Statist!queetdes Etudes Economiques(Paris)
(F2)
784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). - Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of Inter
national Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
E Analytical Measures
47. Index of industrial production (Iff). See in section B.
48. Man-hours in nonagr{cultural establishments (M). See in section B.
52. Personal income (Iff). See in section B.
54. Sales of retail stores (Iff). See in section B.
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). See in
section B.
200. GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap -- the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series 205) (Q). -- Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
781. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).
See in section D.
820. Five coincident indicators •- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (HI). See in section B.
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (EOM). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(E2)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (Iff). •• Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -- Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- Insitut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (Iff).
Statistica(Rome)
Istituto Centrale di
(Fl)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (Iff). -- Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (Iff). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt(Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (Iff). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome)
(F3)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M).
(Tokyo)
Tokyo Stock Exchange
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (Iff). See in section D.
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