Full text of Business Conditions Digest : August 1975

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This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and
review,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall-Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-7106)
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the
list of series and sources at the back of this report.

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Rogers C. B. Morton, Secretary
James L. Pate, Assistant Secretary
for Economic Affairs

This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for National
Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor

Edgar R. Fiedler, Chairman
Department of the Treasury
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Management and Budget
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers,
Executive Office of the President
J. Cortland Peret, Federal Reserve Board
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. Th e
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
o f aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.

ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.

Subscription price, including supplements, is $55.25 a year ($13.85 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $4.35. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below).



This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.

enclosing a copy of your address label. Make cnecks payable to the Super
tendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Wa
ington, D.C. 20402.

New Features and Changes for This Issue

iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

AUGUST 1975
Data Through July
Series ES1 No. 75-8

1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5

PART I. CHARTS

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11

Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services . .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

B2
B3
B4
B5
B6

20
23
25
28
30
33

Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
B8

Composite I ndexes
NBER Short List




The Secretary
transaction of
periodical has
September 1,

44
46

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

D3
D4
D5
D6

Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components . . .
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . .

48
49
54
56
58
60

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
Fixed Capital Investment
I nventories and I nventory I nvestment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

37
39

Actual and Potential Gross National Product . . .
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change

61
62
63
65

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices

of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the
the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this
been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through
1975.

66
67
68

PART II. TABLES

a

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

A1
A2
~A3

A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11

Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services . .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income

69
69
70
70
71
71
71
71
72
72
73

Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

74
76
77
78
79
81

E2
E3
E4

Selected Indicators by Timing
B7

Composite Indexes

84
84

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6

Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

83

Foreign Trade

86

Balance of Payments and Major Components . . .

87

Federal Government Activities

89

Price Movements

90

Wages and Productivity

92

Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . .

94

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components

95
96
97
99

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices

103
103
104

PART III. APPENDIXES

A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C.
D.
E.
F.

(See December 1974 issue)
(See November 1974 issue)

(See July 1975 issue)

Historical Data for Selected Series
Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide")
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 (See February 1975issue)
Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See April 1975issue)

G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series




105

112
117
121

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20233

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in

Changes in this issue arc as follows:

concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,

1. The series on New capital appropriations and Backlog
of capital appropriations (series 11, 97, and Dll) have been
revised by the source agency for the period beginning 3rd
quarter 1971 for the following reasons: (1) Seasonal adjustment for appropriations for 1974 has been revised, with backlogs accordingly derived from year-end 1973; and (2) Assets
of the survey companies were updated from 1967 to 1973. Appropriations of 10 industries were linked back to the 3rd
quarter of 1971, and backlogs derived forward from mid-1971.
In this issue revised data are shown graphically beginning
with the 3rd quarter 1971 and in tabular form from 1973 to
date. Figures for the period prior to 1973 will be shown in
a subsequent issue.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from The Conference Board, Department of Investment
Economics, 8^5 Third Avenue, New York, New York 10022.
2. The series on Help-wanted advertising (series 4.6)
has been revised by the source agency for the period 1951
to date. This revision reflects the updating of seasonal
adjustment factors and regional weights. Revised data are
shown in this issue for the period beginning January 1973
and will be shown for the earlier period in a subsequent
issue.
Farther information concerning this revision may be
Dbtained from The Conference Board, Business Analysis
Department, 8^5 Third Avenue, New York, New York 10022.

(Continued on page iv.)
?he September issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
"or release on September 30.



in

seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.

3. The Ratio of help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed (series 860)
has been revised for the period 1973 to date to incorporate revisions in the
series on help-wanted advertising. (See item 2, above.) This series will be
revised for the period prior to 1973 in a subsequent issue.
4* Data on Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (series 4-8) have
been revised for the period 194-7 to date. This revision results from the source
agencyfs discontinuance of its adjustment of data on government employment to
the Current Population Survey.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology, Division of
Productivity Research.
5. Appendix C contains historical data for series 39, 63, 63c, 506, 508,
741, 741c, 770, 770c, 813-817, 820, 825, 830, 858, 859, and D5.
6. Recession comparisons are shown in appendix G for series 10, 18, 32,
41, 43, 44, 47, 48, 114, 205, 781c, and 825.




IV

CHART I. NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS
•
(NOV.) (OCT.)

(JULY)(MAY)

•
(AUG.)(APR.)

*

(DEC.) (NOV.)

(APR.)(FEB.)

P

TTTTTT T M T M T M W T M T T T Tl I I I I M l I I I I ] ] I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l l M i l l

T

III III III III III

Index: 1967=100

140
130
120
110
100 |
90 *

New index of 12 leading indicators, original trend

80
70

New index of 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted1

XI

180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90 3

-I
70

J

50

40

11 liiii 11111111111111 i.ilt.i 11111111111 NJ.II 111111 IHII I 1111111111111111111111 ii 11111111 iljiil 111111111111111111
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

NOTE: Current data for these series are shown on page v i i . The old index of 12 leading indicators i s shown on page 112.
•Revised
reference turning dates. (See May 1975 BCD, page v i i . )
1
Original trend replaced by trend of deflated coincident index (series 825).




CHART II. COMPONENTS OF NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS

(NOV.) (OCT.)

I IIIIII m i

IIIMII I I I M M

M l I I I I I I I M M l M l I H M l M l I I I I I I I I I M l M l M l M l U E

I I I I I I I I II I I I I

X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars (bil. dol.

35
30
CM

25 -^

20 1
15
12
10
10D. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment,

VTN*

X170D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. dol.

X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials excluding foods and feeds, smoothed1 (percent)

4
+30
+20
+10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
+4
+2

-2
200
190
X108. Money balance (M1), 1967 dollars (bil. dol.)

180
170
+1.5

X136. Percent change in total liquid assets, smoothed1 (percent)

'VWV

+0.5
0

1 n 11111111111 i\i\ 111111111111 in 11111111 til 1111111

11111 ii 1111111111111111 i m l 1111111111111111111

1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

NOTE: Current data for these series are shown on page v i i .
•Revised
reference turning dates. (See May 1975 BCD, page vii.)
1
Series i s a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.




+1.0

VI

TABLE I. CURRENT DATA FOR NEW COMPOSITE INDEX AND SELECTED COMPONENTS

Year
and
month

New composite
index of 12
leading
indicators,
original trend

New composite
index of 12
leading
indicators,
reverse trend
adjusted1

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

X213. New
orders, consumer
goods and
materials, 1967
dollars

10D. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment, 1967
dollars

(Mil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

X170D. Net
change in
inventories on
hand and on
order, 1967
dollars,
smoothed2

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

X201. Percent
change in
sensitive prices,
WPI crude
materials excluding foods
and feeds,
smoothed2

(Percent)

X108. Money
balance (M1)
1967 dollars3

(Bil.dol.)

X136. Percent
change in
total liquid
assets,
smoothed2

(Percent)

1973

125.0
125.7
124.5

152.4
153.6
152.7

29,039
29,531
29,694

9.13
9.06
9.37

10.70
10.84
11.32

1.12
0.95
0.90

200.8
200.4
198.8

1.07
0.99

124.1
124.9
H>126.6

152.6
154.1
156.7

29,643
30,235
29,733

9.11
9.40
10.03

11.51
13.25

1.16
1.59
2.08

198.4
199.5
200.6

0.99
1.06
1.10

July
August
September...

126.5
123.9
122.3

K>157.0
154.3
152.8

30,391
30,032
29,612

10.08
9.75
9.70

G>21.33
19.97
16.81

2.16
1.85
1.90

200.5
197.0
196.3

1.06
0.98
0.89

October

122.4
121.7
119.8

153.2
152.9
150.9

H> 30,628
29,971
28,571

H>10.62
10.42
9.95

16.38
17.79
18.97

2.36
3.27
3.88

195.3
195.8
196.0

0.79
0.71
0.72

January
February
March

117.5
117.7
119.6

148.5
149.1
152.0

29,943
27,752
30,582

9.72
10.02
9.76

13.47
6.35
0.65

4.06
4.42
4.94

193.4
192.8
192.4

0.82
0.89
0.88

April
May
June

117.4
116.5
113.7

149.7
149.0
145.8

28,029
28,787
28,299

10.14
10.39
9.79

-2.77
-2.70
0.30

E>5.46
4.02
1.61

192.1
190.8
190.7

0.91
0.93
0.90

July
August
September...

112.9
108.8
104.3

145.3
140.4
135.0

28,577
28,548
27,240

10.40
9.15
9.26

2.98
-2.06
-9.61

0.95
1.70
2.26

189.4
187.3
185.3

0.82
0.68
0.53

October
November . . .
December . . .

100.3
96.8
94.6

130.1
126.0
123.6

26,354
24,700
21,392

8.38
7.87
8.44

-12.32
-11.77
-12.61

1.29
0.18
-0.53

184.2
183.8
182.9

0.45
0.45
O.46

90.7
90.3
91.3

118.7
118.6
120.3

20,576
20,913
20,494

7.14
7.07
7.02

-17.46
-22.08
-26.48

-1.39
-1.70
-1.28

180.3
180.2
181.3

0.47
0.52
0.62

94.4
r96.2
99.0

124.8
rl27.5
131.6

22,374
22,607
r22,850

7.84
7.80
r7.42

r-29.18
r-28.14
p-24.86

-0.41
0.45
0.99

180.9
181.9
183.2

0.70
r0.74
r0.86

100.7

4

p24,456

P7.29

(NA)

O.84

pl81.4

pO.93

January
February
March
April
May
June

November . . .
December . . .
1974

1975
January
February
March

•.

April
May
June
July
August
September...

4

134.3

October
November . . .
December . . .

NOTE: Graphs of these series are shown on pages v and vi. Historical data were shown in the May 1975 BCD (pages xx-xxii).
The old index of 12 leading indicators is shown on page 112. Series are seasonally adjusted. Current high values are indicated
b y E ) . The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; and "NA", not available.
"'"Reverse trend adjusted index contains the same trend as the deflated coincident index (series 825).
2
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
3
Series X108 reached its current high value (200.9) in December 1972.
4
Excludes series 3 and X170D for which data are not yet available.




Vll

TABLE II. SPECIFIC PEAKS AND TROUGHS FOR NEW COMPOSITE INDEX AND ITS COMPONENTS
Specific dates are listed under the reference cycle dates to which they correspond. Numbers in parentheses indicate leads ( - ) or lags (+) of specific dates in relation to reference dates.
Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning i n Series
December 1969
New composite index of 12 leaders, original trend
New composite index of 12 leaders, reverse trend adjusted
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing . .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
12. Index of net business formation
X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars . .
10D. Contracts and orders for plant and equip., 1967 dollars. . .
29. Index of new building permits, private housing units
X170D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967
dollars, smoothed1 . .
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries . . . ,
X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials
excluding foods and feeds, smoothed1
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks . . . .
X108. Money balance (M1), 1967 dollars
X136. Percent change in total liquid assets, smoothed1

Jan.
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Jan.
Feb.

April 1960

August 1957

July 1953

November 1948

69
69
68
69
69
69
69
69

(-11)
(-11)
(-22)
(-8)
(-10)
(-2)
(-11)
(-10)

Aug. 69

(-4)

Apr. 59 (-12)

Sep. 56 (-11)

Feb. 53

(-5)

July 48

(-4)

June 69

(-6)

Oct. 59

Oct. 55

July 52 (-12)

Oct. 48

(-1)

Mar.
Jan.
May
May

Sep. 47
June 48
May 46
NA

(-14)
(-5)
(-30)

Sep.
Dec.
Feb.
Aug.

Apr.
May
Apr.
May
Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Nov.

Nov.
July
July
July

69
(-3)
68 (-12)
69 (-10)
68 (-16)

59
59
59
59
59
59
59
58

(-12)
(-11)
(-12)
(-11)
(-12)
(-14)
(-13)
(-17)

(-6)

58 (-17)
59
(-9)
59
(-9)
59
(-9)

Sep.
Sep.
Nov.
Nov.
June
July
Nov.
Feb.

Sep.
July
Apr.
Apr.

55
55
55
55
55
55
56
55

(-23)
(-23)
(-21)
(-21)
(-26)
(-25)
(-9)
(-30)

(-22)

55 (-23)
56 (-13)
56 (-16)
57
(-4)

Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Nov.
Sep.
Jan.
Feb.
Nov.

Jan.
Jan.
Dec.
July
Jan.
June
Apr.
Oct.

53
(-4)
53
(-4)
53
(-4)
52
(-8)
52 (-10)
53
(-6)
53
(-5)
52
(-8)

53
53
53
53

(-4)
(-6)
(-2)
(-2)

48*
48*
47
46
48*
48
48
47

(-10)
(-10)
(-11)
(-28)
(-10)
(-5)
(-7)
(-13)

Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning i n Series
November 1970
New composite index of 12 leaders, original trend
New composite index of 12 leaders, reverse trend adjusted
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing . .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
12. Index of net business formation
X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars . .
10D. Contracts and orders for plant and equip., 1967 dollars. . .
29. Index of new building permits, private housing units
X170D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967
dollars, smoothed1
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries
X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials
excluding foods and feeds, smoothed1
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
X108. Money balance ( M l ) , 1967 dollars
X136. Percent change in total fiquid assets, smoothed1

Oct.
Mar.
Sep.
Oct.
Aug.
Nov.
Oct.
Jan.

February 1961

70
(-1)
70
(-8)
70
(-2)
70
(-1)
70 " ( - 3 )
70
(0)
70
(-1)
70 (-10)

Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Feb.
Jan.
Feb.
Nov.
Dec.

60
60
60
61
61
61
60
60

(-2)
(-2)
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(0)
(-3)
(-2)

April 1958
Feb.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.

May 1954

58
58
58
58
58
58
58
58

(-2)
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(0)
(-3)
(-1)
(-2)

Nov.
Nov.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Oct.
Mar.
Sep.

October 1949

53
53
54
54
54
53
54
53

(-6)
(-6)
(-1)
(-4)
(-2)
(-7)
(-2)
(-8)

June
June
Apr.
May
July
June
Apr.
Jan.

49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49

(-4)
(-4)
(-6)
(-5)
(-3)
(-4)
(-6)
(-9)

Feb. 70

(-9)

Feb. 61

(0)

Apr. 58

(0)

Nov. 53

(-6)

June 49

(-4)

Dec. 70

(+1)

Mar. 60 (-11)

Dec. 57

(-4)

Dec. 53

(-5)

Mar. 49

(-7)

Apr.
Oct.
June
July

Nov.
Dec.
Mar.
Dec.

(-5)
(-4)
(-1)
(-4)

Nov.
Sep.
Oct.
Dec.

(-6)
(-8)
(-7)
(-5)

June 49
June 49
Aug. 48
NA

(-4)
(-4)
(-14)

Sep.
June
Feb.
Aug.

70
(-2)
70
(-5)
70
(-9)
69 (-15)

60 (-10)
60
(-4)
60
(-8)
60
(-7)

57
57
58
57

53
53
53
53

NOTE: Specific peaks and troughs mark the dates when individual series reach their cyclical turning points, whereas reference peak and trough dates indicate the cyclical turning points in
business activity as a whole. This table is based on the revised reference turning dates. (See May 1975 BCD, page vii.)
NA = Not available. The data necessary to determine a turning point are not available.
*Not necessarily the peak but the high for the available data.
1
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1 , 2 , 2 , 1 ) placed at the terminal month of the span.

TABLE III. SUMMARY OF RECENT DATA FOR NEW COMPOSITE INDEX AND ITS COMPONENTS

Percent change
Unit
of
measure

Average

1973

1STQ
1975

2D 0
197*

WAY
.1975

JUNF
197«5

JULY
1975

90.8
119.2

Q6.5
128.0

96.2
127.5

99.0
131.6

100.7
134.3

1974

MAY
TO
JUNF.
1975

JUKE
TO
JULY
1975

4THQ
TO
1STQ
1975

lSTQ
TO
2U U
1975

COMPOSITE I N D E X E S
12 leading indicators:1
New index, original trend
New index, reverse trend adjusted .

1967=100 .
do

124.C
153.6

110.0
141.2

97.2
126.6

2.9
3.2

1.7
2.1

-6.6
-5.6

6.3
7.4

1.0

-2.0
-0.8
-2.8
-14.4
-14.0

0.5
0.9
3.6
9.4
8.6
30.5

I N D E X COMPONENTS
1.
3.
12.
X213.
10D.
29.
X170D.
32.
X201.
19.
X108.
X136.

Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing
Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 2 ) 3
Index of net business formation
New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars
Contracts and orders for plant and equip., 1967 dollars
Index of new building permits, private housing units
Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967 dollars
(smoothed4)3
Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries3 (§)
Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials
excluding foods and-feeds (smoothed4)3
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks®
Money balance (Ml), 1967 dollars
Percent change in total liquid assets (smoothed4)3

Hours
Per 100 employ
1967=100
Mil.dol
Bil.dol
1967=100
Ann. rate, bil. dol
Percent

1941-43=10
Bil.dol
Percent

40.7
0.9

117.9
29,757
9.72

157.1
15.53
86
1.94
107."3
198.3

39.7
40.0
1.5
2.4
112.4 105.5
27,350 24,149
9.44
6.23

59.4

91.9

77.5

69.5
-2.51
66

2.53
82.84
188.
0.73

-12.23
33
0.31
69.42
183.6
0.45

86.8

0.3
0.5
5.2
1.1
-4.9
4.1

NA

3.28

30

2

0.84
92.49
181

0.S4
2.6
0.7

39.1
39.5
39.0
39.1
NA
2.5
2.0
2.3
106.2 104. 6 110.3 113.6
20,661 22,610 22/607 22,850 24,456
7.29
7.08
7.42
7.80
7.69
38.9
3.2

102.5

-22.01
17
-1.46
78.81
180.6
0.54

-27.39
24

0.34
89.07
182.0
0.

78.6

81.6

-28.14 - 2 4 . 8 6
24
0.45
90.10
181.9
0.74

26
0,99
92.40
183.2
0.66

0.93
0.96
, which appear to contain no seasonal movement.
NA=Not available.
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicati
2
1
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, the signs of the changes are reversed.
For the latest month, new indexes are based on 10 components,
shown for this series.
"Series is a weighted 4-term moving averac [with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.




Vlll

NA
3.0
7.0

-1.8
6.1

-14.5

-5.3b
-9.78

0.12
3

7
-16

-0.15
0.1
-1.0
0.07

-1.77
13.5
-1.6
0.09

1.80
13.0
O.b
0.23

Differences rather than percent changes are

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.

National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons

Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1953 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.

Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for
series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or
trading days in each month. As used in
this report, the term "seasonal adjustment"
includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown
here on a seasonally adjusted basis.

MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the



smoothest series and 6 for the most
erratic. MCD moving averages (that is,
moving averages of the period equal to
MCD) tend to have about the same degree
of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term
moving average of a series with an MCD
of 5 will show its cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate
economic
activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As
a matter of general practice, neither new
reference turning dates nor the shading
for recessions will be entered on the charts
until after both the new reference peak
and the new reference trough bounding
the shaded area have been designated.
This policy is followed because of the
conceptual and empirical difficulties of
designating a current recession and the
practical difficulties of terminating the
shading of a current recession without
including part of a new expansion.
SECTION A

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.

cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories
valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is
provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and serv
ices includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section A. Other major aggregates taken from
the national income and product accounts
are described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.

Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.

Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.

Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-

Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.

Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated. The implicit price deflator (computed by dividing the current-dollar data
by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP
is also shown.
SECTION B

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a

tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this
section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 79 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the p <cipal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.

The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists
of 26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. In addition, there are five indexes
based on leading indicators which have
been grouped by economic process. These
indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so
that its long-run trend parallels that of
the coincident index. This facilitates comparisons among the leading, coincident,

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
\.
N.

Cyclical
Timing

Economic
Process

||

|, EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(13 series)

PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)

HI. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)

|V

INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(14 series)

V|

MONEY
AND CREDIT
(20 series)

^v
>v

LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
C2 series)
New investment
COfltlftltftlGfltS
0 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
<5 series)
/- . ";\

- r i- •-,-•*• -••"-' - S Y I N

^

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT Comprehensive ; f . Y ^ :
-' employment
; v S • Comprehensive income
INDICATORS
0 series) • Y ;'(26 series)
Comprehensive
Comprehensive
consumption
unemployment
and trade (4 series)
(3 series)

LAGGING INDICATORS
(13 series)




Sensitive commodity
prices ( l series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)
Cash flows it series)

Flows of money
and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(5 series)

• l - - y % - ? f w Y Y ' . •- -

Jot* vacancies : : v - Y ^ '

Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)

Inventory investment
and purchasing
<7 series)

Backlog of investment
- ©onftm!tm#fits
(2 series)

Investment
expenditures
{% series)

Inventories
(2 series)

, Unit tabor costs
(3 series)

Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates
(3 series)

and lagging indexes and tends to shorten
the leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C

ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these
series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments. In
some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D

OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com


prehensive selection. In general, these
series reflect processes which are not
direct measures of economic activity but
which do have a significant bearing on
business conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures,
and their balance, and selected defense
activities. The receipts and expenditures
data are from the national income and
product accounts. The defense series are
only a few of the many available. For a
more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis publication.
Three other groups of series are included
in this section. The price movements
series consist of consumer and wholesale
price indexes and their major components.
The series on wages and productivity include measures of hourly earnings and
output per man-hour and also rates of
change for most of these measures. The
final group of series measures the civilian
labor force and its major components, including unemployment rates for selected
segments of the labor force.
SECTION E

ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic varia-

bles (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F

Lit.

INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS

Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) as
designated by NBER.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.

Basic Data

Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.

\/r

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)

$/
/

quarter for which data are
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)

^v

Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L - l " is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.

Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).

Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.

Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted i y 2 , 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.

, Scale shows percent of components rising.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ( " I " =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according
to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or



2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers within each of the
Digest's six sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Percent change

Average

1972

1973

1974

1st Q
1974

2dQ
1974

3dQ
1974

1974

1st Q
1975

2dQ
1975

3dQ
to
4th Q
1974

4th Q
to
1st Q
1975

1st Q
to
2dQ
1975

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.

GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars . . .

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol. . .
do

1156.0 1294.9 1397.4 1358.8 1363.8 1416.3 1430.9 1416.6 1439.
792.5 839.2 821.2 830.5 827.1 823.1 804.0 780.0 783.1
146.1 154.3 170.2 163.6 167.3 172.1 178.0 181.6 183.8
5,544 6,154 6,592 6,429 6,537 6,677 6,731 6,652 6,748
3,794 3,988 3,874 3,929 3,907 3,880 3,782 3,663 3,670

1.0
-2.3
3.4
0.8
-2.5

-1.0
-3.0
2.0
-1.2
-3.1

1.6
0.4
1.2
1.4
0.2

200
205
210
215
217

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do

946.5 1065.6 1142.5 1118.8 1130.2 1155.5 1165.4 1150. 1171.0
944.9 1055.0 1150.5 1112.5 1134.6 1168. 1186.9 1193.4 1220.5
802.5 903.
979.7 950.6 966.5 993.1 1008.8 1015.5 1078.5
580.5 619.6 602.8 610.3 603.5 602.9 594.8 591.0 620.

0.9
1.6
1.6

-1.3
0.5
0.7

220
222
224
225

Ann. rate, dol. .
do

3,843
2,779

4,295
2,945

4,623
2,845

4,49'
2,88'

4,565
2,850

4,681
2,84

4,745
2,798

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
.do.
.do .
.do.
.do .
.do .

729.0
527.3

805.2

876.7
539.5

840.6
539.
123.9

869.1
542.7
129.5
91.5
38.0
375.8
363.8

901.3
547.2
136.1
92.5
43.6
389.0
376.2

895.8
528.2
120.7
88.1
32.6
391.7
383.5

163.1
146.9
52.8
94.2
35.3
-19.2

-31.0

-12.6
9.1

A 2 . National and Personal Income
220.
222.
224.
225.
226.

National income, current dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars . .
Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable pers. income, 1958 dol. .

-1.3

-0.6

1.8
2.3
6.2
4.9

4,768
2,775

5,055
2,907

1.4
-1.5

0.5
-0.8

6.0
4.8

226
227

913

938.6
539.7
130.6
93.5

-0.6
-3.5

-4.8
-25.2
0.7
1.9

1.9
0.6
3.5
1.7
8.3
1.8
1.6

2.8
1.5
4.6
4.4
5.1
2.8
2.2

230
231
232
233
234
236
237

1.7
0.2
5.3
-2.4

-22.1
-2.8
-1.7
-3.4

-9.2
-2.9
-7.0
-0.6

240
241
242
243
244
245

A 3 . Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
234.
236.
237.

Total, current dollars
Total, 1958 dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars.
Automobiles, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, current dollars

118.4
78.8
39.

299.

310.

552.1
130.3

127.5

88.1
35.8

531.5
124.9
89.6
35.3
398.8
389.5

86.9
43.4
338.0
336.9

369.0

364.4
352.4

209.4
136.8
47.0
89.8
57.2
15.4

209.
149.2
52.0
97.1
46.0
14.2

210.5
145.
51.3
93.9
48.4
16.9

211.8
149.4
52.2
97.2
48.8
13.5

205.8
150.9
51.0
46.2
3.7

209.4
151.2
53
97.5
40.4
17.8

3.9

2.1
140.2
138.1

11.3
131.2
119.9

-1.5
138.5
140.0

-3.1
143.6
146.7

1.9
147.5
145.7

8.3
142.2
133.4

15.0
135.1
120.1

309.2
116.9
78.7
192.

296.3

304.4
114.3
190.1

312.3
117.2
78.4

323.8
124.5
84.0
199.3

331.6
126.5
84.7

205.1

90.0
37.5

380.2

37.1
410.1

397.9

-11.3

A 4 . Gross Private Domestic I nvestment
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
245.

Gross private domestic investment, total
Fixed investment, total nonresidential
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures .
Fixed investment, producers' durable equip. .
Fixed investment, residential structures . . . .
Change in business inventories, total 2

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
.do .
....do
....do
....do

179.3
116.8

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do

-6.0
72.4
78.4

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do

255.7
104.9
74.8

41.1
75.7
54.0

99.9

148.1
142.
49.1
93.6
36,

-12.6
-37.0

3.1
-11.8

5.0
2.7
-0.7

6.9
-3.6
-8.4

-10.0

6.2
-5.0

250
252
253

338.1
128.4
84.8

3.7
6.2
7.1
2.2

2.4
1.6
0.8
2.9

2.0
1.5
0.1
2.2

260
262
264
266

-5.2
12.6

2.7
-31.7
3.5
-5.2

3.5
-1.3
3.S

-10.6

270
271
274
275

A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services2
252. Exports
253. Imports

100.4
96.4

A 6 . Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262.
264.
266.

Total
Federal
National defense .
State and l o c a l . . .

150.8

276.4
106.6
74.4
169.8

111.5
75.8

184.8

76.6

A 7 . Final Sales and Inventories
270.
271.
274.
275.

Final sales, durable goods
Change in business inventories, dur. goods2
Final sales, nondurable goods
Change in bus. inventories, nondur. goods2

195.1

209.7

214.3
7.1
321.0
1.4

240.9
9.4
366.5
6.0

249.2
7.7
406.9
6.5

242.3
3.7
392.8
8.2

248.5
-1.8
402.9
15.4

413.?
3.0

246.2
18.3
418.6
-0.5

-13.4
433.?
-5.7

261.7
-14.7
449.8
-16.3

736.0
96.1
26.1

105.1
52.3

855.8
93.0
26.5
105.6
61.6

828.8
9d.4
26.4

do

707.1
75.9
25.9
92.2
45.6

107.7
57.5

848.3
89.9
26.3
105.6
60.1

868.2
92.1
26.6
105.8
62.8

877.7
<U.6
?6.8
103.4
65.9

875,6
84.9
27.0
94.3
68.9

865.4
86.1
27.1
100.5
71.9

1.1
-0.5
0.8
-2.3

-0.2
-7.3
0.7
-8.8
4.6

1.1
1.4
0.4
6.6
4.4

280
282
284
286
288

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

173.4
52.6

214.4
74.4

207.5
77.0

224.5
84.4

206,
71,

196.4
65.5

202.9
86.5

166.6
75.9

160.7
113.8

-17.9
-12.3

-3.S
49.9

290
292

do
do

23.3
102.9
-5.1

25.7
110.8
3.5

119.5
-6.3

115.8
0.4

9.9

118.6

18.1
122.9
-24.6

21.5
25.0
125.2 127.4
-56.0 -10b.6

16.3

do

3.3
32.1
82.8
1.8
-24.6

294
296
298

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
do

785.4
7.0
83
34,
39,

828.4
10.8
94.4
32.9
44.2

812.5
8.7

819.9
10.6
96.3
26.4
29.2

818.9
8.2
96.5
25.7

818.1
5.0

-11.7
83.8
17.3

32.6

38.9

793.1
10.9
89.2
P0.4
33.6

56.3

56.5

Ann.rate, bil.dol.

do
do
do

259.8
5.7

252.9

1.3
-3.5

A8. National Income Components
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.

Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj.
Net interest

Ann.rate, bil.dol.

do
do
do

4.9

A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, total
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2

17.3

23.9

17.1

-1.0

120.7
0.?.

18.8
1.9

•31.4

-49]6

-3.1
5.9
-5.2
-13.6
-13.6

-0.2
•22.6

1.1
-5.4
-4.2

0.9

0.7

1.6

263

-0.1

1.0

0.8

267

27.9

32.9

A1O. Real GNP ( 1 9 5 8 dollars)
273.
246.
247.
248.
249.
263.

Final sales, 1958 dollars
Change in bus. inventories, 1958 dollars2
Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars .
Fixed investment, residential struc, 1958 dol. .
Gross auto product, 1958 dollars
Federal Government purchases of goods
and services, 1958 dollars
267. State and local government purchases of

.do.

61.0

57.3

.do.

82.1

37.0

goods and services, 1958 dollars

94.0
24.0
33.6
56.5
89.5

56.3
89.7

94.1

23.6

89.5

89.4

54.1

66.8

57.0
S9.3

26.7

800.2
-17.1
30.3
17.5
33.7

57.4

58.3

791.8

90.2

90.9

-6.1
•15.2
•20.5

1.2
26.2

273
246
247
248
249

El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP gap (potential less actual), 1958 dol. 2




Ann.rate, bil.dol.

26.3

64.6

42.1

94.7

127.6 133.4

5.8 207

5

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Unit
of

Series title

Percent change

Average
4th Q
1974

1st Q
1975

May
to
June
1975

June
to
July
1975

4th Q
to
1st Q
1975

1st Q
to
2dQ
1975

2dQ
1975

May
1975

June
1975

July
1975

96.?
127.i

100.7
134.3
167.0
158.2
123.9
200.5

2.9
3.2
2.5
1.6
1.5
-0.6

1.7
2.1
2.9
0.3
-0.2
0.2

-6.6
-5.8
-6.6
-5.7
-6.5
-2.8

6.3
7.4
4.4
-0.1
-0.5
-5.4

NA
2.1
-0.6

-4.9
-4.6

813
814
815
816
817

1973

1974

.
.
.
.
.
.

124.0
153.6
163.4
155.5
136.5
164.4

110.0
141.2
171.?
165.8
136.8
20*. 1

97.2
126.6
163.3
165.5
132.1
219.6

90.8
119.2
152.5
156.1
123.5
213.7

96.5
128.0
159.2
156.0
122.0
202.<d

155!3
122.H
?01.3

09.0
131.6
162.3
157.6
124.2
200.0

.do .
.do.
.do .
.do .
.do .

102.0
120.3
1?3.2
118.6
116.1

92.6
114.9
133.0
125.0
110.7

85.5
108.9
124.5
122.9
100.2

81.3
103.9
116.2
90.1

84.0
109.1
112.1
117.9
96.3

63.6
108.?
112.2
115.2
96.1

110.9
112.2
118.7
96.8

NA
113.2
111.3
11Q.6
NA

1.9
1.9
0.0
0.4
2.8

40.7

40.0

39.7

38.9

39.1

39.0

39.1

39.5

Per 100 employ.

3.6
4.6

3.2
4.1

2.9
3.2

2.3
3.3

2.4
3.7

2.4
3.7

2.4
3.6

Thousands
Per 100 employ.

240
0.9

349
1.5

457
2.4

54P
3.2

500
2.5

2.0

1967=100 .

126

110

92

76

76

tl

149.64 150.95 150.64 146.47
76*833 78*337 78,320 16,Its
.'30*957 82*443 82*347 80*821

145.38
76*347
80*959

145.6^ 145.01
76*428 76,2^4
Bl*l«+O

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
12 leading indicators:3
New index, original trend
New index, reverse trend adjusted
Old index, reverse trend adj. (810)
820. 5 coincident indicators
825. 5 coincident indicators, deflated
830. 6 lagging indicators

1967=100
...do
...do
...do
...do
do

LEADING INDICATOR
SECTORS
813. Marginal employment adjustments . .
814. Capital investment commitments . . .
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability
817. Sensitive financial flows

810
830

o.e

-5.5

NA

•10.1

3.3
5.0
0.3
1.5
6.9

0.3

1.0

-2.0

0.5

1

2.6
NA

0.0
-C.I

0.?
NA

-0.6
0.1

0.1
0.4

21

410
NA

1.6
0.5

15.8
HA

-19.9
-0.6

0.9

9.5

3.7

-17.4

0.0

144.85
76*352
61*628

-0.4
-0.2
0.3

-C.I
0.1
0.6

-2.8
-2.0
-1.9

•10.3

B1. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg.
21. Average weekly overtime hours,
production workers, manufacturing2 .
2. Accession rate, manufacturing2
*5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted4) .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 4 ) 2
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Job Vacancies:
46. Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments .
* 4 1 . Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities

Hours

do

Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Thousands
do

Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 4 ) 2
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate (inverted 4 ) 2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(inverted 4 ) 2
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks ~nd
over (inverted 4 ) 2

-0.7
-0.5
0.?.

41
42

8.6

8.4

0.6

0.2

-1.8

-0.5

43

6.6

6.6

6.1

0.3

0.5

-1.7

-0.8

45

5.7

5.7

5.4

0.1

0.3

-0.9

40

2.0

2.8

3.1

-0.3

-0.1

-0.6

1397.4 1430.9
821.?
804.0
124.8
121.3

1416.6
780.0
111.6

1439.7
783.1
110.0

.109.8

110.3

0.5

0.*

-1.0
-3.0
-fi.O

1.6
0.4
-1.4

200
205
47

1186.8
268.3

1193.4
?57.3

1220.o
257.2

1214.?
?56.7

24.1

1238.4
26 0.6

2.5
0.9

-0.5
0.6

0.6
-4.3

2.3

n.o

52
53

164.10 167.?6
1383.2 1413.1
53*786 45,031
31,655 30,466

2.5
1.5

-3.7
1.6
2.7
1.6

1.4
2.4
3.5
2.1

5o
57
54
59

-2.6
-3.1

3.6
7.9

12
13

-13.9
-11.3
-12.0
-9.6
-6.9

8.0
29.1
12.?
-17.8
4.0

6
10

-18.9
-0.6
-14.D

8.3
7.1
30.5

9
2b

-7.0
-1.4

-2.6
-4.7

90
97

4.9

5.6

6.6

8.4

2.7

3.5

4.3

6.0

2.3

2.7

3.4

a.6

0.9

1.0

1.2

8.9

9.?.

B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
1967=100

1294.9
839.2
12b.6

Comprehensive Income:
*52. Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction .

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

1055.0 1150.5
24*7.6
266.?

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, deflated

Bil.dol
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
Mil.dol
do

143.90
1279.6
41*943
33*477

161.04
1435.8
46*233
30*952

163.34
1470.7
47*865
31*614

162.7s") 16l3.?2

1.5

46*124 48*756 49*965
31*898 32*024 32*511

1.3
0.4

LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations

1967=100 .
Number . .

117.9
112.4
10b.5
102.'
?7*443 26*534 25*321 24,542

106.2
26*4*1

104.8
110.3
26*634 26*304

New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
8. Construction contracts, total value
*10. Contracts and orders for plant, equipment .
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing .
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense .
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings
28. New private housing units started, total . . .
*29. New building permits, private housing

Bil.dol
1967=100
Bil.dol
do
do
Mil. sq. feet
floor space . . .
Ann. rate, thous
1967=100

ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries5 . .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5 . . .

Bil.dol., EOP .
do . . . .

259.1

in. s

B3. Fixed Capital Investment




41.22
1*4
12.2*
11.13
10.32
85.73
2*045
157.1

37.11

3.0

113.6
MA

-1.2

NA

39.35
174
12.34

41.44
165
12.21

0.4
-4.4
-5.0

5.3
-b.2
-1.1

36.19
141
11.39
11.46
9.86

30.09
18
12.78
9.U2
10.25

39.1.'-:

10.30

10.14

10.28

-1.6

1.4

57.81
1*001
69.5

46.8'
995
59.

50.74
1*066
77.5

44.79
1*130
78.

50.54
1*088
PI.6

52.60
1*238

12.6
-3.7
4.1

4.1
13.8

129.94 129.94
49.79
49.79

120.10
49.08

116.75
46.79

117.48

116.75

116.78

-0.6

44.4 3
171
I3.o
14.2
11.53
72.90
1*336
91.9

42.0.
159
12.95
12.66
10.32

182
12.99

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data;
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Percent change

Average
1973

1974

4th Q
1974

1st Q
1975

2dQ
1975

May
1975

June
1975

148.9

150.76

July
1975

May
to
June
1975

June
to
July
1975

4th Q
to
1st Q
1975

1st Q
•to

2dQ
1975

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING

INDICATORS

Investment Expenditures:
* 6 1 . Business expend., new plant and equip
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures

Ann.rate, bil.dol.

99.74 111.92 116.22 114.5

413.3

do

134.71 152.68 158.33 153.0'

150.3

1.

-1.4

-1.0

61

-3.3

-1.8

69

-37.0
-64.3

-11. e

245
31

B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING

INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus.2
* 3 1 . Change, mfg. and trade inven., book value2 .
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories2
20. Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials,
supplies, book value2
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer 2 ®
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting

slower deliveries2®
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus.

LAGGING

B5.

Percent
Ann.rate, bil.dol.

..

15.4
26.9

14
47.8

63

55

6.4

13.9

76

Percent
do

2

Bil.dol..

8b
2.41

66
1.67

17.8
52.9

-19.
-11.4

-31.0
-19.0

-31.3

-10.3

-10.

32
11.

1.5

75

62

33
-1.9;

17

31

5
24

-3.28

24
-0.76

-7.7

N

23.6

NA

-7.6

2

2!

-4

-14

NA

-9.7

-3

-13

Bil.dol., EOP . . .
do

N,

20
-11.8

56

5:

26

3i
o.o:

-0.7,

2.3

0.04

26

4
0.75

-16
-1.36

-6
7
2.16

32
25

224.00 271.84 271.84 268.99 264.24 264.88 264.24
37.95
46.73 46.73
47.73
46.83 47,01 46.83

NA
N,

-0.,
-0.

NA
NA

-1.0
2.1

-1.8
-1.9

71
65

Prices, Costs, and Profits

INDICATORS

Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices®

1967=100

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®
Profits
*16.
18.
22.

and Profit Margins:
Corporate profits, after taxes, current dol. .
Corporate profits, after taxes, 1958 dollars.
Ratio, profits to income originating in
corporate business2
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg. 2 .
•17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars...
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars

173.1

219.0

194.7

181.2

181.3

184.2

173.2

171.5

-6.0

-1.0

-6.9

0.1

23

1941-43=10 . . .

107.43

82.34

69.42

78.81

89.07

90.10

92.40

92.49

2.6

0.1

13.5

13.0

19

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

72.9
50.2

85.0
53.1

79
46.9

62.
35.9

67.4
38.

8.2

16
18

-21.6
-23.5

e.9

Percent
Cents
1967=100
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

11.2
5.0
106.1
114.5
79.0

12.1
5.6
116.1
129.0
81.3

11.1
4.9
120.8
125.5
74,0

9
3.8
115.8
109.6
62

113.1
116.4
65

112.9

112.6

113.3

1967=100
Percent
1967=100

125.9
0.9
129.2

154.1
1.9
153.8

165.6
0.9
166.1

168.3
0.3
168.0

170.2
0.2
169.4

170.3
0.2
169.

170.7
0.4
170.1

171.2
0
171.4

10.0
NA

-0.2

O.F

-1.8
-1.1
-4.1
-12.7
-15.5

ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities® .
55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A2 .
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods® . . .

LAGGING

37
-3

-6.

INDICATORS

Inventories:
* 7 1 . Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5 . . .
65. Mfrs.' inven. of finished goods, book value5

LEADING

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do

0.2
0.2
0.4

0.3
0.0
0.8

l.o
-0.6
1.1

0.7
NA
-2.3
6.2
4.8
1.1
-0.1
0.6

22
15
17
34
35

55
55
58

INDICATORS

Unit Labor Costs:
63. Unit labor cost, total private economy
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, m f g . . . .

.do.

131.1

146.5

153.6

157.6

158.9

2.6

0.8

63

Dollars
1967=100

0.879
121.7

0.978
132.5

1.023
138.5

1.043
145.

1.039
148.9

-0.4
2.5

68
62

Ann.rate.percent.

4.66

5.25

2.42

do

3.51

6.99

6.66

8.36

do
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do

8.50
46.01
21.00
20.06
177.64

6.55
35.51
21.97
8.41
67.82

23.32
15.18
-3.?5
42.87

Mil. dol
Percent, EOP . . .

191.55
2.2 7

54.43 299.03 373.08
2.80
2.94
2.80

Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 2 ®

Mil. dol.

-1,369 -1/797

Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate2 ® . . . .
114. Treasury bill r a t e 2 ®
116. Corporate bond y i e l d s 2 ® .
115. Treasury bond y i e l d s 2 ® . .
117. Municipal bond yields2 ® .

Percent .
do .
do .
do .
do.

O.k

0.9

2.0
4.9

2.04

6.94

•15.77

-2.83

d.54

85

8.34

5.70

•10.49

1.70

4.85

102

4.83
-4.53
4.36
6.56

-7.08
NA
11.02

3.43
4.79
38.09
0.85
-31.a

5.10
8.87
1.65
2.62
19.6

103
33
112
113
110

31.8
0.02

NA
NA

-?5.2
-0.14

19.1
0.31

14
39

-lkk

93

-0.8f
.0.47
0.45
0.27
0.31

119
114
116
lib
117

151.

149.2

1U9.8

10.96

1.0.87

17.81

13.21

13.13

18. R3

14.75 19.58
39.47
34.94
22.70
-1.50 -18.34
5.06

12.50

B6. Money and Credit
LEADING

INDICATORS

Flows of Money and Credit:
85. Change in money supply (M1 ) 2
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at commercial banks (M2) 2
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
banks and nonbank institutions (M3) 2
33. Change in mortgage debt2
112. Change in business loans2
*113. Change in consumer installment debt 2
110. Total private borrowing
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted4) ® . .
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv. 4 ) 2 5 .

10.31 15.41
28.11 36.98
•22.91 -21.26
-2.40
0.22
97.46 11G.59
301.93
2.63

IV A

-7.32
NA

57.7c 1 7 5 . 9 2
2.65
2.63

NA

ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS




6.74
7.03
6.31
5.19

10.51
7.87
9.42
6.98
6.17

-959

-60

9.29
7.33
9.66
6.97
6.74

6.30
5.67
9.16
6.70
6.65

5.42
5.40
9.61
6.97
6.96

-5 ?

288

-2U9

-340

537

-899

5.22
5.J?
9.7*
7.01
6.97

5.55
5.19
9.27
6.^6
6.95

6.10
6.16
9.56
6.89
7.07

0.33
-0.13
-C.49
-0.15
-0.02

0.55
0.97
0.29
0.03
0.12

-2.99
-1.46
-0.50
-0.27
-0.09

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Percent change

Average
1973

1974

4th Q
1974

1st Q
1975

2dQ
1975

May
1975

June
1975

July
1975

May
to
June
1975

June
to
July
1975

4th Q
to
1st Q
1975

1st Q
to
2d Q
1975

0.3
-1.2

NA
-0.5

-0.4
-1.6

0.0
-4.5

66
72

-0.39

0.06

-2.02
-1.70
NA

-1.63
-1.78
NA

109
67
118

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

861
1.5
-0.3
-6.8
-6,0

419
-5.6
0.6
7.8
-11.2

500
502
506
508
512

2,425
NA
2,406
NA
NA
2,317
NA
6,098
10*670 -1*719
1*655
8,110

250
515
517
519
521
522

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6. Money and Credit-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt5
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .
Interest Rates:
109. Average prime rate charged by banks 2 ©
*67. Bank rates on short-term business l o a n s 2 © . . .
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ©

Bil.dol., EOP .
Bil.dol
Percent

144.52 152.93 152.93 152.33 152.39 151.96 152.39
NA
106.08 125.35 133.40 131.28 125.39 125.27 123.74 123.13

do .
do .

P.02
6.30
8.19

10.30
11.23
9.55

11.00
11.64
NA

8.98
9.94
6.84

7.35
8.16

Mil. dol. ..
do.
do.
1967=100
Mil. dol. ..

119
5*905
2/343
189
5*786

-193
8*166
3*166
207
8*359

-165
8,836
3,378
192
9,001

696
8,972
3,369
179
8,277

1*115
8,469
3,300
193
7,353

7.47

7.08
9.06

9.13

-0.10

1*737
8*692
3*531
195
6*954

IMA
NA
NA
NA
NA

685
6.7
2.5
2.1
-2.0

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D 1 . Foreign Trade
500.
502.
506.
508.
512.

Merchandise trade balance2
Exports, excluding military aid
Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles.
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
Genera! imports

1*052
8*145
3*446
191
7*093

D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
250.
515.
517.
519.
521.
522.

Balance on goods and services2
Bal. on goods, services, and remittances2
Balance on current account2
Balance on curr. acct. and long-term capital2 .
Net liquidity balance2
Official reserve transactions balance2

Mil. dol. ..
do.
do.
do.
do .
do .

4*177 3*574
56d
462
84
-903
-245 •2*732
-1*913 •4*761
-1*328 •2*094

919 3,344
NA
NA
480 2,686
K»A
-169 2,148
-475
NA
•6,573
2,945
1*2?6
•7,725
•4,*55 -3,255 -1*600

D3. Federal Government Activities
600.
601.
602.
264.
616.
621.
648.
625.

Federal surplus or deficit, NIA 2
Federal receipts, NIA
Federal expenditures, NIA
National defense purchases
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S

Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
.do .
Mil. dol.
Bil.dol..
Mil. dol.

-5.6
253.5
264.2
74.4
7*085
1*571
1.71
2*954

-8.1
291.1
299.1
78.7
7*753
1*741
1.90
3*457

1958=100 .
1967=100 .
Percent . . .
1967=100 .

149.6
133.1
O.7
134.7

167.0
147.7
1.0
160.1

do.

146.6

do .

110.1

1967 dol. .
1967=100 .
do .
do .
do .

95.73
146.8
111.8
115.2
113.7

-54.4 -104.6
284.1 250.5
338.5 355.0
84.7
84.8
7,780 7,913
1*761 1,541
1.83
1.7U
3,499
MA

1*850
1.66
3*926

7*553
1*348
1.91
NA

2.0U
NA

-8.3
-?7.1
15.1
NA

NA
NA
6.8
NA

174.7
154.2
0.9
171.2

178.0
157.0
0.5
171.2

IPO.4
159.5
0.6
173.0

159.3
0.4
173.2

160.6
0.8
173.7

162.3
1.2
175.7

0.8
0.4
0.3

158.3

164.0

167.3

170.2

170.0

171.7

172.0

107.2

106.4

106.4

106.7

106.8

107.0

90.97
161.9
109.6
112.1
110.6

89.80
167.7
106.7
110.8
109.4

88.28
171.6
109.2
110.8
108.9

90.12
174.5
109.4
111.3
109.8

<U.54

91.36

88*716 91*011 91,785 9l,81C 92,514 92,940 92*340 92*916
84*410 65,936 85,732 84,146 P4,311 84,402 64*444 85*078
4*306
*O76 6,053 7,664 8,203
7*896 7*338
8*53o

.
294.7
319.3
84.0
7,990
1*742
1.81
3*490

-29.9
-3.6
6.0
0.8
-2.6
1.1
1.1
0.3

-50.2
-11.8
4.9
0.1
1.7
-12.5
-4.9

600
601
602
264
616
621
648
625

1.1
0.4
1.2

1.9
1.8
-0.4
0.0

1.3
1.6
0.1
1.1

211
781
781
750

1.0

0.2

2.0

1.7

740

106.0

0.2

-0.9

0.0

0.3

741

90.68

-0.2

-0.5

-1.7
2.3
0.5
0.0
-0.5

2.1
1.7
0.2
0.5
0.8

859
745
746
770
858

-0.6
0.0
7.5

0.6
0.8
0.7

0.0
-1.8
-?6.6

0.8
0.2
-7.0

841
842
843

-7.5
5.0

-1.7
-3.0

850
851

-2.7

-3.5
-5.2

852
853

NA

D4. Price Movements
211. Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product . . .
781. Consumer prices, all items®
781c.Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 . . .
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities©
D5. Wages and Productivity
740. Average hourly earnings, production workers
in private nonfarm economy
741. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers in private nonfarm economy
859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings,
nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers
745. Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm .
746. Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm . . . .
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm .
D6. Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components
841. Total civilian labor force
842. Total civilian employment
843. Number of persons unemployed (inverted)4 .

Thousands
do .
do .

E. A N A L Y T I C A L MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2 . . .
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers'durable goods industries
853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods ..
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
persons unemployed
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2 ®

Percent .
Ratio ..

33.0
1.46

79.0
1.51

75.7
1.60

6R.2
1.68

66.5
1.63

1.63

1.60

do .
1967=100 .

?.87
93.2

3.31
100.8

3.42
103.2

3.47
100.«

3.35
95.2

3.44
95.4

3.31
93.6

NA
91.3

-3.8
-1.7

NA
-2.7

Ratio ..

0.0H2

0.079

0.086

0.075

0.106

do .
Percent . . .

0.661

0.656
6.2

0.455
6.0

0.294
6.1

0.277
6.3

0.258

0.305

0.319

18.2

4.6

-1.8

-12.8

41.3

854

-35.4
0.1

-5.8
0.2

860
357

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated b y © , which appear to contain no seasonal movement. 'Series included in the 19B6 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA = not available, a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period. S/A=seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.

•'•For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are
those published by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II.
differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
For the latest month, new indexes are based on 10 components, old index on 9.
4
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.

8




Chart Al

July)
?

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

jjj§§
;

;

Jk

|

11

BSI

dollars, Q ( M . rate, hil. dsl.)

218. M M vice Mbtar, Q ( U H C 1958-W8)

215. h r capita (JP • a m r t Mfan, Q ( m rata, Has. dol.)

217. Per capita HP M 1558 iWlirs, Q
(am. rate, thus, dol.)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

BCD

 AUGUST 1975


59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

59

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A2

NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

capita
Wbrs, 1 ( mrate,ttws.mi.)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

10




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A3

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

(July)

(May) (Feb.)

(Aug.)

P

T

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q

i^||

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

BCII

 AUGUST 1975


11

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A4

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.
P
T

245. Change in business inventories, Q

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

12



AUGUST 1975

KCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A5

FOREIGN TRADE

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

250. Net exports of goods « l services, Q

252. Exports of goods and services, Q
H

I

.-••.•=-:

••11

; :

" K ; ••/•-••

.r.:,:;-;-V:^::

::

•

.

."

253. teports of goods art services, 0

1953 54

55

56

ItCII AUGUST 1975




57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

13

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A6

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)

266. State and local governments, Q

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

14




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A7

FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P

P

T

illli
•m
mm

iiiii

IHi

•fit

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

T

ii

ill

HI

IfSiSt '

liiii

. lUiiH

ill
iiiiiii ' .
illlilit

271. Change in business inventories, durable goods, a

l i | ; ; - : • ',,. H I

Hi

fflliili

IJ§I>

'••,1111111

•

'

•.

•••-pillS

'

IP II

iilf

W\

i m a m

iiiP

•;

...;.:•.. , ••„„. . . . - : ; : > " 5 ^ "

• illiliS;

:Bt'gISl|i

.

-iA'Sft

• •

S1SS-)i>

iiiii

» «

tip

s

i f t l S f

I S f i W

;

S i l : ; g S - l | i :

•

•..-•••

"•••"•

\ "::i^':, ^jj**^^^/.
440:

mriiir^hla m m H c
I R N f m l l C gOUQS, I I

fl

. f | i p | .
v j j ^ * ^ . . •
H$$IK@IS:
_^-^P'
. . . . .
8|SS»*< "
.••''' '

.

• ••;:::;.'

_J^^^:'
: : ;

274. Final sales, M
•

. .

• •";'.': • ;:hk- ••

I | p p !

,': ;s

, .

;
I

J ^

P

^

-

^

P

I ^ 5 .

:

,;

••

• •

400 -

;

^' '•''^-^
.......
. .

'.•...
•

520480-

• • ••••.•'

360 320280240-

illi

•

• • SiiS!

200 -

^***^x****0^

Wit

160-

• i ! \Jmr~
-wm*-**—if

11
ii

120-

- :.

+20+15-

275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, Q

+10+50-5"
-10-15-20-25-

1953 54 55

56 57 58

59

60

61 62 63

64

65 66 67

68 69

70 71

72 73

74

1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

ItCII

 AUGUST 1975


15

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A8

NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

••
••

illliiil

280. Compensation of employees, Q

IB Bit
iiiilii

nsm

1111
US

284. Rental income of persons, Q

120 n
110100-

{Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment, Q

90-

^

AyJ

^ Z.
EI

8070805040-

30-T

988

Itet intfirest 0

20^

10 J

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

16




AUGUST 1975

licit

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A9 ! SAVING

(July)

(July; (Apr.;

(Aug.)

(Nov.; (Nov.

(May) (Feb.!

Annual rate, billion dolta (orrent)
290. Grass sating (private and government), Q

298. Government surplus or deficit, 0

1953 54

55

56

57

58

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

ItCII

 AUGUST 1975


59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

* The 2d quarter 1975 figure for series 298 is - i C - o .

17

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A10

REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

273. Final sales, 1958 dollars, Q

246. Change in business inventories
1958 dollars, 0

248. Fixed investment, residential structures, 1958 dollars, Q

Personal consnnntion expenditures,

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 70, and 72.

18




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A l l

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Gross National Product Shares
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.)
P

Nov.)
T

Percent

k^ >4

s1

fat

70-|

13

Personal consulnption expenditures as percent of GNP, Q

65-

Ism

I

^%^V^v

^ |

60

J

^?r iii
20-1

15-

10-

5-

0J

National Income Shares

an

§1

80-1
•iwWt*

^p^pHp^llwVtlWII *» UmpHI^Vwl M ^ |Wil willW ill

75-

70-

^3^&£

65 J

282A.

as

286A. Corporate profits and
adijistment as percem

valuation
income, Q
15n

10-

5-

0J
1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

KCII

 AUGUST 1975


19

Section

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart Bl

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

1953 54

20

55

56




57

58

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

AUGUST 1975

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart Bl | EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
July)

(July) (Apr

(Aug.)

150125-

wanted advertising (index: 1967=100)

1007550-

25 J
160150-

in nonagrictiltiiral estijlislwats ( m rate, bil.
140130120858075706590858075706560-

55-

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.

BCI»

 AUGUST 1975


21

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Bl

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

345678910-

345-

SL

6781234567-

Lagging Indicators

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

22



AUGUST 1975

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B2

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

•200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

mm

I

1953 54

55

56

57

53. Wages ami salaries in minirt^

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e.. Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

 AUGUST 1975


23

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B2

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSIIMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production. Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

24




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B3

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

ipV™, : :JllPiif i|^:§^;:;;;:;l^(||^;;l||^;|^ili^^:;;;;;;;^ l^l^l.pW^WW^jf

wders, dttraiile goofe i^istrJ6S (bil. dol.)

contracts, total value (index: 1967=100;
moving avg.-5-term) 1

airi ffiers, plant art eqiipneirt (hil. dot.)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

71

72

73

74 1975

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.

ItCII

 AUGUST 1975


25

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B3

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

private hwsiflg nits started, total (aw. rate, •illiws;
avg.~4-tem)

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

1975

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 78.

26




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B3

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

Lagging Indicators

60-

40

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

J

74 1975

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.

 AUGUST 1975


27

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B4

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Change in business
(am. rate, bil. bol.)

in book valee, numtacturing ami trade mrtories
rate, bil.fol.;MCD Having avg.-6-term)

materials, percent of companies reporting higher

I book value, manutactHrws' inventories of materials ami
dol.; MCO moving avg.-6-term)

policy, prottcton materials, percent of companies
60 days or longer

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.

28




AUGUST 1975

KCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B4

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P

T

perfnancB, perceftt of companies reporting

Chaige in unfilled orders, durable gouts industries
(bil. dol.; MCD novJBg av£.~4-tera)
unit r

Lagging Indicators

facturing and trade inventories (bil. dol.)

of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.

1 AUGUST 1975


29

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B5

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T

1953 54

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80.

30




AUGUST 1975

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B5

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

Roughly Coincident Indicators

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.

ItCII

 AUGUST 1975


31

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B5

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Lagging Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

.£•

Q (1967 100)

m

100-

63c. Chaige over 1-qwrter spaas, 0 (ail. rate,

-5J

mm
W mH of real
0.800.75160150-

j|^-*^

^-^

'

x I^Hl' .^!-- ; . ; =;: , ^ ^ f c

•
...•

-.••-••:-

ii
•
•

•.-mm®

i
I
t

i

-.

/

,,,,,,,,^,,-X^,^^

wmmma

/

m. L*r cast f« nit if am, Mrtachrlif :'(;• "• •:• . | « i > S S ^ ^ : i ^

it

m

140130-

!1 2 0 - :
110-

100-

90;>••

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

,

:

:

.

>-.

62

.

63

64

65

66

67

68

S j « S s

69

> ; f e «

A

S s

70

•

;•:

;

71

•••:••

72

: !

:

':

73

- ' • " ; -

'

: •

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.

32




AUGUST 1975

B€ll

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B6

MONEY AND CREDIT

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators
(July)

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)

T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

: Hill
-:,-.. ill

ii

money supply flUl) (an. rate, percent; MCD Roving avg.

H M q apply pits toe deposits at bate art
htstMws (W) ( w . rate, percent;

33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil

Change in business toans (am. rate, til, dol.
MCD moving avg.--6-term)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

KCII

 AUGUST 1975


33

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

B6

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators—Con.

110. Trtal privatefcorrowiig,0 ( m me, Ml.«.)

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .

34




AUGUST 1975

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B6

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

Free reserves (W. W.-irorte*

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

ItCII

 AUGUST 1975


35

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B6

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Lagging Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T

1953 54

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

36




AUGUST 1975

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B7

COMPOSITE INDEXES

Coincident and Lagging Indicators
NOT , t C •

,i'V
P

•'Apr ,

liViay).

ffcC j

P

T

°P- »°

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58 59

60

61 62

63 64

65 66 67

68 69

70

71

72

73 74 1975

NOTE: The new index of 12 leading indicators is shown on pages v and vii; the old leading index is shown on page 112.
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.

KCII

 AUGUST 1975


37

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart

COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.

B7

Leading Indicator Subgroups
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
I

1;;; II :; 8
,.......

(May) (Feb.)
P T

iifloy^it adpstmrats:;;;:;;;.: | | | S g | 1 | | §
:

:

:

f i l l : j j M:; i >*^ Mm&SM&ifM

:

:

if:' 8 : - -v/,.::7^'-^isii^S^li^i^H^^,
:
:;
:;
tj*********.

3

:

P | ^ B !

•

•>

•

-

'

••'•';••

8

B

|

|

S

l

'••'••'

' :

g

1009080-

i

p

- •

^

^

^

^

^

^

9

.

•

.

•

.: •

•

:

*

^

;

;;.... i f ;

•

:

:

:

;

v

•

•••

s

/

/ \L

130120110-

I

^..

:

100-

9

90140130-

IB

I y/

pio. nlif|Wp ) Istrte «. 17.1«

120110-

1
'

•"••'•:::.•••;•.•

;

r
•

.;Sv;

racialflews(series 33, 85,112,113)

1

140-

/A

I•

'

!J

11 1

—

1009080-

1
1 An
1 / \A
«

1

120-j
110-

•:••

A

ii

70-

it CffiHtrtffiwtfs (swifts 6, iO. 12< 29)

'

1 1

80-

i

biart aid pwctasiBg (series 23, 25, 31, 37)

M

100-

:' \.;:.-::;.';;;:;.:::';;;;;: m ggf gg

90-

n
:

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P T

i

I11

m

m

,.

, ; •

, , ; - - , - • , , '

-

- -

;

-

:

- ' :

•

•

•

70-

'

:

-

•

130-

' • •

120110 100-

1/

9080-

I

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

38




AUGUST 1975

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Section B

Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B8 j N B E R S H O R T LIST
Leading Indicators

claims, State employment
(thousaois-inverted scale)

450500550600650120-

goods industries (bil. dol

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61 62

63 64

65

66

67

68 69

70

71

72

73 74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 77.

 AUGUST 1975


39

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B8

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

1. Change i l took value, manufacturing and trade inventories
(ann. r a t O i l . dol, MCD moving avg.-6 term)

materials prices (index: 1967=100)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58 59

60

61 62

63 64

65 66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73 74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.

40




AUGUST 1975

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B8 ! NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
PI

(July) (Aug.)
P
I

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
I

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
PI

profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

irice to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index:

in consumer installment debt (ann. rate

Roughly Coincident Indicators
80-.
75-|

70-j

on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)

j

65 H
•

80-j
- 55-1
-J 50-

. .M

H

c

s-T

H
1948 49

50

51 52

53

54

55

56

57 58 59

50 61

62

63 64

S5

66 67

68

69

70

71

72

73 74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 79, 80, and 81.

ItCII

 AUGUST 1975


41

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B8

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P T

14001300120011001000900800700-

•:. IS * If s

1948 49

5 m as ?§?.;

50

51

52

53

54

.

55

56

57

•

58

« is «!•

s: «£ s ;

59

60

61 62

63 64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73 74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

42




AUGUST 1975

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B8

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Selected Indicators by Timing

Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P T

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58 59

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

60

61 62

63 64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73 74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 75. 78. 79. 80, and 82.

B C D AUGUST 1975



43

Chart

AGGREGATE SERIES

Cl

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Nov.)
T

for lew plat and equjpneflt, all iwlystries, Q

Actual expenditures ( a t . rate, Ml.

Second aitlcipatiois as percwrt of

1957

44

58

59




60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

1976

AUGUST 1975

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart C l

AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P

T

P

T

411. Mawifactifers' sites, total vain, Q

412. Ifcwfactirers'imrtries,
total boek nlM, Q (bil. iel.

414. Cwditioiflfwuriactirefs' invntories:
petust cMsideretf high less percnt .
cMsMenltow,0 derceit)
/

416. Adeipacy of natiifactiirers' capacity:
. .-;;::;;v|; considered iBffll^ate less perceat COB
excessive, Q (percent-iBverted scale)

Siiii
ifftffi

HiSf

20-

30-

Hi

40-

50-

43S. W n t f

ftttetl
100-

90ififii .
80-

.SMS! US

iiiiii

70-

60-

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

1976

Current data for these series are shown on page 84.

 AUGUST 1975


45

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart C2

DIFFUSION INDEXES

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

M l . Bisiiftss BXpBMiitiires for m i plait m l
10075502501007550250-

D44D. Hew orders, mawfacturiPfi (4-Q span)1

90-i
80706050-

90-i
80706050-

9080706050706050401957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

1976

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84 and 85.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet Inc.

46




AUGUST 1975

BCII

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart C 2

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

90-

D450. Level of inventories,raawfacturingand
8070605040100-

D460. Selling prices, manafactBring and trade
90807060501009080706050100-

D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q

9080-

1

70
6050100-

prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1

908070-

Si

6050-

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

1976

Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

BCII

 AUGUST 1975


47

Chart Dl

FOREIGN TRADE

1953 54

55

56

57

58

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Way) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 86.


48


AUGUST

1975

ItCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)

517. Balaici«cirreut

SIS. Balact H curreit

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 87

IICII

 AUGUST 1975


49

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

160150140130120110100908070605040-

30-

20-

10-

25-1
20-

15-

10J

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 87. End-of-year figures are used prior to 1960.

50




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
t

••

. . ^ . . ; , ; ; , ; , ; : ; •v > -

-•• .

•

IS

••-•••

.

• • • > . , . . . . ; , ; : •

- v ^ ••-•

^

r

:

^ m ^ • • ; ; •

- ^ . ^ '

• <:i^j^mJh::

^rW;m^

.

!

204 T
192 180168156 144132120108-

M

9684-

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

BCII

 AUGUST 1975


51

Section D

Chart D2

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

322824201612-

0J
8-

4-

016-

12-

8-

4-

01953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

52




AUGUST 1975

BCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(July) (Apr.)
P

T

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

+12 n
+8+4-

0-

+40-4J
On
-4-

Baflking i n ottier capital trasact«ws,iei
0-4-

-12-16-20-24-28-32 J
1953

54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

BCII

 AUGUST


1975

53

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D3

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

450400350300250-

02. Mnl -jglih-.a, mtaaliK M M art prefect accoints, Q ( m rate, Iiii.

200150-

100-

1

^y^—

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

I
62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

50J
71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

54




AUGUST 1975

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D3

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.

100-i
908070605098765-

3-

2-

154-

3-

2-

154-

3-

2-

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

 AUGUST 1975


55

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D4

PRICE MOVEMENTS

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
:
•;'•: S t i l l

(May) (Feb.)
P T

iiiex, gross ^i«te prahct
to 1965), fl (iidei: 1958=100)

pice iwtex, grass private promct
(an. rate)

pries M n , all items (seasonally adj.)

1953 54

55

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

^ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

56




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D4

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.

(July)
P

(Nov.)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

spaas1
1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

:

66

67

(Nov.)
T

• •m:r:-: •

p i l l
68

69

70

71

72

73

.^ .: • :
74

?;

-

1975

1

0ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6 month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

itcn

 AUGUST 1975


57

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D5

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)

P

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

T

Rnl $|MMtaHi ivj.
or msBwrvisory iwrtors (1S7 Mlars)

. if ii
1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.

58



AUGUST 1975

BCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.

D5

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

ill

:->:

-li^immmmom::
.On-partef | spas ( w . rate)

siii

IO-I

imn$

.-:.' •. V v - . V . j ( g .

.

^

^H + 5 - .
0-

;

-

r**

u'yr-'

^ ^

748.; First y w avg. ckaiges, 0 (MB. rate)
over lite of
coBtract, Q ( m rate)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.2One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1 -month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.

BCII

 AUGUST 1975


59

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D6

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
T

P

T

843. rsfliaies Zu years 2nd over

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

SO

61

62

63

64

55

66

67

58

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.

60




AUGUST 1975

i Chart E l

ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

1

400-

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

]
Current data for these series are shown on page 95.
Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 2d quarter 1975. See special note on page 95.

ItCII

 AUGUST 1975


61

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart E2

ANALYTICAL RATIOS

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

K4. H H I v s w l sniRg titispubbpersoul tern, 1 (ratii)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 96.

62




AUGUST 1975

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart E3

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Leading Indicators
(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(July) (Apr
P

T

apnpriatiK~17 UBkte (34

pT, pcrenl nprthf M t v piifili J M I

D23. lifcstrft medals prices—13 Mistrarf
Hii!

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

;.•.. ' •":- V

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.

 AUGUST 1975


63

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart E3

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

MHMs~3i i*stries (6-w. sna—, 1

pn*cti«i--24 iKkistnes (IHM. spa—, 1-no. spa--)

tries (6-mo. s p a n — ,
ncttrn foflfls—zz innns

••>••>.

100-1

50-

PI ' ' ' W

0J

»54. Sate ofrctoilstores-23 types of stores (9-ao. span—, 1-roo. span--)

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

100-1

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 98.




64

AUGUST 1975

BCII

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart E5

RATES OF CHANGE

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

1957

58

59

60

61

(Nov.)
P

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

(Nov.)
T

70

71

72

73

74

75

1976

To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide," pp. 117-120.

 AUGUST 1975


65

Chart F I ! CONSUMER PRICES

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

1953 54

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 103.


66


AUGUST 1975

Section F

Chart F2

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

1953 54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.

BCII

AUGUST 1975



67

Section F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart F3

STOCK PRICES

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P I

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

18. United

£

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 104.

68




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Q | GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

a. Total

b. Difference

210. Implicit price deflator

205. Constant (1958) dollars

200. Current dollars

Year
and
quarter

b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

(Index:
1958=100)

(Index:
1958=100)

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

+12.2
+10.5
+9.5
+12.7

770.9
786.6
798.1
814.2

+11.8
+15.7
+11.5
+16.1

+6.4
+8.4
+6.0
+8.3

144.6
145.3
146.5
148.0

+1.9
+0.7
+1.2
+1.5

+5.5
+1.9
+3.3
+4.1

+44.2
+29.0
+31.0
+35.1

+15.5
+9.6
+10.1
+11.2

832.8
837.4
840.8
845.7

+18.6

+4.6
+3.4
+4.9

+9.5
+2.2
+1.6
+2.3

150.0
152.6
155.7
158.9

+2.0
+2.6
+3.1
+3.2

+5.5
+7.3
+8.3
+8.6

1,358.8
1,383.8
1,416.3
1,430.9

+14.8
+25.0
+32.5
+14.6

+4.5
+7.6
+9.7
+4.2

830.5
827.1
823.1
804.0

-15.2
-3.4
-4.0
-19.1

-7.0
-1.6
-1.9
-9.0

163.6
167.3
172.1
178.0

+4.7
+3.7
+4.8
+5.9

+12.3
+9.4
+11.9
+14.4

1,416.6

-14.3
r+23.1

-3.9
r+6.7

780.0
r783.1

-24.0
r+3.1

-11.4
r+1.6

181.6

r!83.8

+3.6
r+2.2

+8.4
r+5.0

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1,115.0
1,143.0
1,169.3
1,204.7

+31.8
+28.0
+26.3
+35.4

1,248.9
1,277.9
1,308.9
1,344.0

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

rl,439.7

•••GROSS NATIONAL
H I
PRODUCT-Con.
215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars

Year
and
quarter

217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars

Q [ NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in current dollars

222. Personal
income in current dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

5,354
5,478
5,593
5,750

3,702
3,770
3,817
3,886

912.3
932.5
954.3
987.0

913.3
930.9
950.3
985.0

774.7
790.0
807.2
838.1

566.2
573.6
581.9
600.1

3,720
3,787
3,861
4,000

2,719
2,749
2,784
2,864

5,951
6,079
6,214
6,368

3,968
3,983
3,992
4,007

1,027.6
1,051.2
1,077.3
1,106.3

1,013.6
1,039.2
1,068.0
1,099.3

869.5
892.1
913.9
939.4

615.1
618.2
621.8
622.9

4,143
4,244
4,339
4,452

2,931
2,941
2,952
2,952

6,429
6,537
6,677
6,731

3,929
3,907
3,880
3,782

1,118.8
1,130.2
1,155.5
1,165.4

1,112.5
1,134.6
1,168.2
1,186.9

950.6
966.5
993.1
1,008.8

610.3
603.5
602.9
594.8

4,497
4,565
4,681
4,745

2,887
2,850
2,842
2,798

6,652
r6,748

3,663
r3,670

1,150.7
pi,171.0

1,193.4

1,015.5

rl,220.5

rl,078.5

591.0
r620.2

4,768
r5,O55

2,775
r2,907

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,10, and 65.

ItCII AUGUST

1975




69

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

^ P E R S O N A L CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

Year
and
quarter

231. Total in

230. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

constant (1958)
dollars

232. Durable
goods, total, in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

234. Automobiles
in current dollars

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

237. Services in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

701.5
720.6
736.8
757.2

512.8
523.2
531.2
542.2

112.1
116.2
121.2
124.3

75.5
77.9
79.4
82.4

36.6
38.3
41.8
41.9

288.4
297.4
302.0
310.9

301.0
307.0
313.6
322.0

781.7
799.0
816.3
823.9

552.9
553.7
555.4
546.3

132.4
132.1
132.4
124.3

87.0
87.3
87.0
86.3

45.4
44.8
45.4
38.0

323.3
332.7
343.8
352.1

325.9
334.2
340.1
347.4

840.6
869.1
901.3
895.8

539.7
542.7
547.2
528.2

123.9
129.5
136.1
120.7

88.1
91.5
92.5
88.1

35.8
38.0
43.6
32.6

364.4
375.8
389.0
391.7

352.4
363.8
376.2
383.5

913.2
r938.6

531.5
r539.7

124.9

89.6
r93.5

35.3
37.1

398.8
r410.1

389.5
r397.9

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

rl30.6

^ J G R O S S PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS

Year
and
quarter

240. Total

241. Nonresidential
fixed investment

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

242. Nonresidential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

243. Producers'
durable equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

245. Change in
business inventories

244. Residential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

169.4
175.5
182.1
190.2

112.7
114.7
117.5
122.5

40.7
41.0
40.6
42.2

72.0
73.7
76.8
80.3

51.8
52.9
54.5
56.7

+5.0
+8.0
+10.2
+11.0

199.0
205.1
209.0
224.5

130.5
135.6
139.0
141.9

44.-6
46.2
47.9
49.3

85.9
89.4
91.1
92.6

58.5
58.7
58.1
53.6

+10.0
+10.7
+11.8
+28.9

210.5
211.8
205.8
209.4

145.2
149.4
150.9
151.2

51.3
52.2
51.0
53.7

93.9
97.2
99.9
97.5

48.4
48.8
46.2
40.4

+16.9
+13.5
+8.7
+17.8

163.1

146.9
rl42.7

52.8
r49.1

94-2
r93.6

35.3
36.4

-19.2
r-31.0

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

rl48.1

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.

70




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

• M GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
•••
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

^ F O R E I G N TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS

Year
and
quarter

250. Net exports
of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

252. Exports

253. Imports

of goods and
services

of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

262. Federal

260. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

264. National
defense

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

266. State and
local

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

-7.1
-6.9
-4.8
-5.3

69.1
68.8
73.3
78.5

76.1
75.7
78.1
83.8

251.1
253.8
255.1
262.6

105.6
105.9
102.7
105.2

75.9
75.9
72.6
74.7

145.5
147.9
152.4
157.4

-0.8
+0.5
+6.7
+9.3

88.8
95.4
103.7
113.6

89.5
94.9
96.9
104.3

269.0
273.3
276.9
286.4

106.4
106.2
105.3
108.4

75.0
74.0
73.3
75.3

162.6
167.1
171.6
177.9

+11.3
-1.5
-3.1
+1.9

131.2
138.5
143.6
147.5

119.9
140.0
146.7
145.7

296.3
304.4
312.3
323.8

111.5
114.3
117.2
124.5

75.8
76.6
78.4
84.O

184.8
190.1
195.1
199.3

133.4

rl35.1

331.6
r338.1

126.5

r+15.0

rl28.4

84.7
r84.8

205.1
r209.7

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

142.2

rl20.1

Wf§ NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
•Nil
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

^ F I N A L SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS

Year
and
quarter

270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

280. Compensation
of employees

Nondurable goods

Durable goods
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

282. Proprietors'
income

284. Rental income
of persons

275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

204.6
210.6
218.3
223.6

+2.7
+5.8
+6.8
+13.2

309.7
318.9
322.7
332.6

+2.2
+2.2
+3.4
-2.2

683.8
699.0
712.6
732.9

72.9
74.6
75.8
80.1

25.5
24.4
26.8
26.7

237.8
241.2
243.9
240.6

+6.1
+7.7
+9.0
+14.8

347.9
359.7
374.2
384.1

+3.9
+3.0
+2.9
+14.1

759.1
776.7
793.3
814.8

89.1
92.8
99.3
103.2

26.3
25.7
26.2
26.4

242.3
248.5
259.8
246.2

+8.7
-1.8
+5.7
+18.3

392.8
402.9
413.2
418.6

+8.2
+15.4
+3.0
-0.5

828.8
848.3
868.2
877.7

98.4
89.9
92.1
91.6

26.4
26.3
26.6
26.8

252.9

-13.4
r-14.7

433,2
r449.8

-5.7
r-16.3

875.6
r885.4

84.9
r86.1

27.0
27.1

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

r26l.7

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,14,15, and 16.

IICII AUGUST 1975




71

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

• • • N A T I O N A L INCOME COMPONENTS
Mil
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

288. Net interest

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

^ | SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
290. Gross saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment

296. Capital consumption
allowances

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

298. Government
surplus or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

86.5
89.5
92.9
99.8

43.6
44.9
46.2
47.5

164.4
169.4
175.0
184.6

53.3
49.0
49.3
58.9

21.3
22.1
23.3
26.5

98.9
103.7
103.3
105.8

-8.2
-5.2
-0.6
-6.5

103.9
105.0
105.2
106.4

49.2
51.1
53.2
55.5

201.1
207.9
217.0
231.7

65.3
69.6
73.2
89.3

26.3
24.9
25.6
26.2

107.4
110.5
111.5
113.9

+2.1
+3.0

107.7
105.6
105.8
103.4

57.5
60.1
62.8
65.9

224.5
206.3
196.4
202.9

84.4
71.5
65.5
86.5

23.9
17.1
9.9
18.1

115.8
118.6
120.7
122.9

+0.4
-1.0
+0.2
-24.6

94.3
plOO.5

68.9
71.9

166.6
pl60.7

75.9
r!13.8

21.5
P25.0

125.2
127.4

-56.0
p-105.6

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . . .

+6.7
+2.3

1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

m^REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars

247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars

248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

263. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services,
constant (1958)
dollars

267. State and local
government purchases of goods and
services, constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

+8.8

81.3
82.4
83.8
87.2

33.8
34.2
34.3
34.8

36.1
37.5
40.9
41.8

62.9
62.5
59.5
59.2

80.9
81.3
82.4
83.8

825.5
829.6
832.7
825.7

+7.3
+7.8
+8.0
+20.0

92.2
94.3
95.1
96.0

35.0
34.1
32.6
29.8

46.3
45.2
43.6
41.6

58.9
57.7
56.2
56.4

85.2
86.2
87.5
89.3

819.9
818.9
818.1
793.1

+10.6
+8.2
+5.0
+10.9

96.3
96.5
94.1
89.2

26.4
25.7
23.6
20.4

29.2
32.6
38.9
33.6

56.3
56.3
56.5
57.0

89.7
89.5
89.4
89.3

791.8
r800.2

-11.7
r-17.1

83.8
r80.3

17.3

rl7.5

26.7
r33.7

57.4
r58.3

90.2
90.9

766.7
780.0
789.7
805.3

+4.2
+6.6
+8.5

1973
First quarter
Second quarter ,
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

.,

1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18.

72




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

E f f l SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Year
and
quarter

Percent of Gross National Product
241 A. Fixed
investment,
nonresidential

230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures

244A. Fixed
investment, residential structures
(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

245A. Change
in business
inventories

250A. Net exports of goods
and services

(Percent)

(Percent)

262A. Federal
Govt. purchases of
goods and services

266A. State and local
govt. purchases of
goods and services

(Percent)

(Percent)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

62.9
63.0
63.0
62.9

10.1

10.0
10.0
10.2

4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7

+0.4
+0.7
+0.9
+0.9

-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4

9.5
9.3
8.8
8.7

13.0
13.1

62.6
62.5
62.461.3

10.4
10.6
10.6
10.6

4.7
4.6
4.4
4.0

+0.8
+0.8
+0.9
+2.2

-0.1
0.0
+0.5
+0.7

8.5
8.3
8.0
8.1

13.0
13.1
13.1
13.2

61.9
62.8
63.6
62.6

10.6
10.8
10.7
10.6

3.6
3.5
3.3
2.8

+1.2
+1.0
+0.6
+1.2

+0.8
-0.1
-0.2
+0.1

8.2
8.3
8.3
8.7

13.6
13.7
13.8
13.9

64.5
r65.2

10.4
r9.9

2.5
2.5

-1.4
r-2.2

+0.6
r+1.0

8.9
r8.9

14.5
rl4.6

13.0
12.9

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

P J SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.
Year
and
quarter

Percent of National Income
280A. Compensation
of employees
(Percent)

282A. Proprietors'
income

284A. Rental income
of persons

(Percent)

286A. Corporate profits and
inventory valuation
adjustment

(Percent)

(Percent)

288A. Net interest

(Percent)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter .

75.0
75.0
74.7
74.3

8.0
8.0
7.9
8.1

2.8
2.6
2.§
2.7

9.5
9.6
9.7
10.1

4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8

73.9
73.9
73.6
73.6

8.7
8.8
9.2
9.3

2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4

10.1
10.0
9.8
9.6

4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0

74.1
75.1
75.1
75.3

8.8
8.0
8.0
7.9

2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3

9.6
9.3
9.2
8.9

5.1
5.3
5.4
5.7

76.1
P75.6

7.4
P7.4

2.4
p2,3

8.2
p8.6

6.0
p6.1

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.

BCII AUGUST 1975




73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

B M E M P L O Y M E N T AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LEADING INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS . . . .

* 1 . Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

(Hours)

21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

(Per 100
employees)

(Hours)

*5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance,
State programs1

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

(Per 100
employees)

(Thous.)

48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments

46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers

(1967=100)

40.5
40.9
40.9

3.8
3.9
3.9

4.7
4.8
4.9

226
1)223

H)40.9
40.7
40.6

H>4.1
3.9
3.8

4.8
4.8
4.8

July
August
September...

40.7
40.6
40.7

3.8
3.7
3.8

October
November . . .
December . . .

40.7
40.6
40.6

January
February
March

(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)

Revised

Revised**

1973
January
February
March

Comprehensive
Employment

Job
Vacancies

Marginal Employment Adjustments

227

0.9
0.8
0.9

126
126
127

146.48
147.53
148.24

238
234
233

0.8
0.8
0.8

125
126
127

148.70
148.98
149.46

4.8
4.7
4.9

232
247

2a

0.9
0.8
0.8

E>129
126
125

149.80
150.02
150.35

3.7
3.8
3.7

[H>4.9
4.8
4.4

244
251
284

H>0.8
1.0
1.1

127
126
122

150.43
151.69
151.41

40.4
40.4
40.3

3.5
3.5
3.6

4.3
4.5
4.5

306
323
312

1.5
1.4
1.2

117
116
117

150.78
151.08
150.91

April
May
June

39.3
40.3
40.1

2.8
3.4
3.4

4.6
4.7
4-4

293
291
306

1.1
1.1
1.1

120
119
119

149.01
151.56
151.45

July
August
September...

40.2
40.2
40.0

3.4
3.4
3.3

4.4
4.3
4.1

290
332
362

1.0
1.2
1.3

118
114
107

151.25
151.62
151.87

October
November . . .
December . . .

40.1
39.5
39.4

3.2
2.8
2.7

3.6
3.1
3.0

410
458
504

1.9
2.6
2.6

99
91
85

H>153.06
150.18
148.67

January
February
March

39.2
38.8
38.8

2.3
2.3
2.3

3.1
3.3
3.5

548
550
545

3.5
3.4
2.8

77
76
74

147.98
146.16
145.28

April
May
June

39.1
39.0
39.1

2.3
r2.4
r2.4

3.9
3.7

517
496

P3.6

r487

2.5
2.5
p2.0

74
74
81

145.50
145.64
145.01

P39.5

p2.6

(NA)

P410

(NA)

p84

P144.85

April
May
June

1974

1975

July
August
September...

October
November . . ,
December . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [R). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20,21, and 39.

•'"Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
See "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page iii.

74




AUGUST 1975

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ E M P L O Y M E N T AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

LAGGING
INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.

TIMING CLASS . . . .

M l . Number of
employees on
nonagricuttural
payrolls,
establishment
survey

42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

Long-Duration
Unemployment

Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment-Con.

*43. Unemployment rate, total

(Percent)

40. Unemployment rate,
married males

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
(Percent)

*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Percent)

(Percent)

1973
January
February
March

75,472
75,851
76,111

79,182
79,863
80,256

5.0
5.0
4.9

2.8
2.8
2.8

2.4
2.4
2.4

1.1
1.0
1.0

April
May
June

76,339
76,508
76,787

80,521
80,669
81,022

5.0
4.9
4.8

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.4
2.3
2.2

0.9
0.9
0.9

July
August
September...

76,867
77,163
77,315

81,144
81,148
81,626

4.8
4.8
4.8

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.1
2.1
2.1

0.8
0.9
Oo9

October
November . . .
December . . .

77,649
77,915
77,924

82,024
82,006
82,011

H>4.6
4.8
4.9

2.6
i>2.6
2.8

D2.1
2.2
2.2

0.8

E>0.8

January
February
March

77,925
78,053
78,089

82,051
82,050
82,126

5.2
5.2
5.1

3.1
3.2
3.3

2.3
2.4
2.3

0.9
0.9
0.9

April
May
June

78,226
78,357
78,421

82,272
82,565
82,755

5.0
5.2
5.2

3.2
3.2
3.2

2.4
2.2
2.6

1.0
1.0
1.0

July
August
September...

78,479
78,661
78,844

H>82,970
82,823
82,913

5.3
5.4
5.8

3.2
3.2
3.4

2.7
2.7
2.8

1.0
1.0
1.1

October
November . . .
December . . .

E>78,S65
78,404
77,690

82,864
82,314
81,863

6.0
6.6
7.2

3.7
4.2
4.9

3.0
3.3
3.8

1.1
1.2
1.4

77,227
76>708
76,368

81,179
80,701
80,584

8.2
8.2
8.7

5.5
6.0
6.4

4.5
4-7
5.2

1.7
2.0
2.2

April
May
June

76,349
r76,428
r76,264

80,848
80,890
81,140

8.9
9.2
8.6

6.8
6.9
6.6

5.6
5.8
5.7

2.6
2.8
3.1

July
August
September...

p76,352

81,628

8.4

P6.1

5.4

3.2

0.9

1974

1975
January
February
March

October
November . . .
December . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E > ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |fi>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21,22,41, and 43.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

BCII

AUGUST 1975



75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

££|

TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Comprehensive Production

Comprehensive Income

*200. Gross national product
in current dollars

*205. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars

•47.Index of
industrial production

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(1967=100)

*52. Personal
income

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

53. Wages and
*56. Manufacsalaries in minturing and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Sales of retail stores
*54. Current
dollar sales

59. Deflated
(1967 dollar)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

1973
January
February
March

1,002.0
1,014.4
1,024.5

235.1
238.0
239.8

13 % 848
138,047
140,074

33,930

832.8

122.2
123.4
123.7

40,707

1,248.9

1,238.9

a,242
a,979

April
May
June

837.4

124.1
124.9
125.6

1,031.7
1,038.9
1,047.2

242.2

1,277.9

2U.1
246.8

140,022
141,726
141,354

1,267.2

41,185
41,723
41,167

34,106
H>34,393
33,384
33,553
32,832

840.8

126.7
126.5
126.8

1,056.1
1,067.6
1,080.4

248.4
249.7
253.4

145.583
145,584
145,679

l,297!o

42,767
42,355
42,529

34,011
33,349
33,339

1,344.0

B>845.7

127.0
E)127.5
126.5

1,090.8
1,100.0
1,107.1

255.7
258.7
259.9

149,789
152,335
150,711

42,970
42,976
42,116

33,494
33,209
32,121

January
February
March

1,358#.8

830.5

125.4
124.6
124.7

1,107.0
1,113.4
1,117.1

257.4
260.0
260.7

154,064
156,098
159,239

42,932
43,134
43,872

32,393
32,104
32,395

April
May
June

1,38^8

827.1

124.9
125.7
125.8

1,125.2
1,135.2
1,143.5

262.7
265.3
267.9

160,675
162,924
163,052

44,283
44,894
44,593

32,360
32,U5
31,786

823.1

125.5
125.2
125.6

1,159.5
1,167.2
1,178.0

268.6
271.7
273.5

168,824
171,644
170,862

1,407.6

46,356
47,056
46,177

32,755
32,878
31,774

804.0

124.8
121.7
117.4

1,185.0
1,184.5
1,191.0

E>274.6
267.4
264.3

1)171,647
168,335
161,809

1,413a

45,803
44,469
44,821

31,181
30,019
30,198

780.0

113.7
111.2
110.0

1,191.1
1,193.4
1,195.7

261.2
255.4
255.2

161,754
162,814
158,544

1,435^8

45,955
46,819
45,926

30,883
31,398
30,575

r783.1

109.9
rlO9.8
rllO.3

1,203.1
1,214.3
,244.1

255.7
256.7
r259.1

162,041
rl62,746 0>rl,47O#.7
Pl65,225

46,712
r48,124
r48,758

30,920
r31,898
r32,024

pllO.8

pi,238.4

p260.6

[H)P49,965.

P32,511

July
August
September...

October
November . . .
December . . .
1974

July
August
September...

October
November . . .
December . . .
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September...

,439.7

(NA)

October
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by B ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by|H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23,24, and 42.

76




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

( J F I X E D CAPITAL INVESTMENT

TIMING CLASS . . . .

LEADING INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process

Formation of Business
Enterprises

*12.Index of
net business
formation

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries

8.Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1

*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment

11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations 1

24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense

(Number)

(Bil.dol.)

(1967=100)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

and
month
(1967=100)

New Investment Commitments

9. Construction contracts
for commercial and industrial buildings, floor
space1
(Million
sq. feet)

(Million
sq, meters) *

Revised13

1973

119.1
119.9
(H>120.8

27,796
28,752
28,964

38.37
39.02
40.40

185
191
193

11.33
11.36
11.69

9.72

9.57
9.45
10.04

87.48
85.89
84.71

8.13
7.98
7.87

April
May
June

119.3
118.8
118.5

28,522
28,286
27,999

40.62
41.51
a.95

177
173
183

11.30
11.94
12.76

10.92

9.94
10.04
10.56

83.61
83.73
85.79

7.77
7.78
7.97

July
August
September...

118.2
117.2
115.6

27,664
26,689
26,240

a.84
a.98
41.15

175
E>199
182

12.62
12.65
12.26

11.67

10.57
10.28
10.39

E>95.42
89.80
83.77

E>8.86
8.34
7.78

October
November . . .
December . . .

116.2
117.6

1H.0

26,809
26,718
24,881

43.30
43.48
41.03

191
194
161

13.29
13.40
12.73

12.20

10.93
11.16
10.94

91.60
87.47
69.51

8.51
8.13
6.46

January
February
March

113.3
113.0
113.9

26,511
27,056
26,458

41.52
42.27
41.97

155
187
181

12.66
13.17
13.01

12.86

11.00
11.42
11.30

76.53
80.67
75.07

7.11
7.49
6.97

April
May
June

115.9
116.3
115.7

H> 29,071
27,562
25,785

44.12
46.73
46.85

167
188
166

13.67
14.57
13.84

14.98

11.92
11.80
12.01

82.77
77.98
75.83

7.69
7.24
7.04

July
August
September...

118.6
114.6
111.1

27,790
26,495
26,313

47.71
E>49.46
46.40

177
170
187

H)15.16
13.52
14.08

.38

0)12.80
11.80
11.83

76.64
82.17
73.70

7.12
7.63
6.85

October
November . . .
December . . .

105.2
105.1
106.3

25,404
25,555
25,003

45.08
43.18
37.84

148
154
176

12.87
12.34
13.64

12.68

11.38
10.62
IO.46

62.47
56.71
54.25

5.80
5.27
5.04

January
February
March

102.9
101.7
103.0

24,406
24,298
24,922

36.06
37.02
35.49

135
135
153

11.39
11.34
11.44

11.46

10.08
9.97
9.52

54.39
46.54
39.69

5.05
4.32
3.69

April
May
June

103.4
104.8
110.3

26,506
r26,634
p26,3O4

38.75
39.18
r39.35

189
182
174

13.01
12.99
rl2.34

P9.42

10.31
10.30
rlO.14

56.90
44.79
50.54

5.29
4.16
4.70

ell3.6

(NA)

P41.44

165

P12.21

pl0.28

52.60

4.89

January
February
March

1974

1975

July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E > ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [R). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 2 5 , 2 6 . and 39.
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced "without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9) or The Conference Board (series 11).
2
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

IICII

AUGUST 1975




77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

• • • I N V E N T O R I E S AND INVENTORY
l i l
INVESTMENT

U N F I X E D CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

LEADING INDICATORS

New Investment
Commitments-Con.

Backlog of Investment
Commitments

Investment Expenditures

Inventory Investment and Purchasing

28. New private
housing units
started, total 1

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

*29.Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits1
(1967=100)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

(Bil.dol.)

)7. Backlog of
:apital approbations, manuacturing2

(Bil.dol.)

*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construction expend iures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

245. Change
in business
inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total

37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

Revised3
1973
January
February
March

2,486
2,376
2,309

195.7
191.8
177.7

82.27
83.91
86.80

April
May
June

2,096
2,313
2,087

164.4
166.4
176.7

89.60
92.74
96.a

July
August
September...

2,120
2,058
1,861

156.8
155.9
146.8

98.46
101.54
103.45

October
November . . .
December . . .

1,692
1,721
1,441

121.6
120.8
111.0

105.87
108.30
109.86

January
February
March

1,437
1,881
1,511

112.5
113.9
120.2

111.38
113.58
114.93

April
May
June

1,580
1,467
1,533

108.9
99.9
96.1

117.82
122.02
126.08

July
August
September...

1,314
1,156
1,157

89.6
80.0
73.5

129.67
134.30
H>135.70

October
November . . .
December . . .

1,106
1,017
880

69.9
66.4
72.1

134.22
132.66
129.94

999
1,000
985

59.4
6O.4
58.3

125.87
123.25
120.10

980
rl,130
rl,088

72.1
78.6
r8l.8

118.23
117.48
rll6.75

pl,238

p86.8

P116.78

+10.0

+22.2
+23.4
+19.6

61
63
61

132.a
135.14

+10.7

+16.7
+27.8
+30.5

57
58
63

100.90

137.47
135.53
137.26

+11.8

+24.0
+23.9
+22.6

64
61
64

103.74

139.91
142.39
142.81

E>+28.9

+26.9
+35.7
+49.6

(H)70
64
65

107.27

144.58
147.63
149.04

+16.9

+35.0
+38.7
+35.8

63
59
57

111.40

149.90
151.29
156.85

+13.5

+25.2
+48.0
+55.4

59
58
56

113.99

151.21
151.16
155.46

+8.7

+59.3
+54.4
+63.8

54
57
58

0)116.22

[H>16O.O4
159.26
155.69

+17.8

H)+71.9
+40.0
+46.7

49
47

114.57

153.06
155.70
150.51

-19.2

all3.39

151.52
rX48.90
pi 50.76

r-31.0

96.19
26.03

126.80
126.51
128.52
131.73

97.76
29.62

33.36

37.11

1974

39.84

44.80

H>50.01

49.79

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June

,

,

July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .

49.08

P46.79

(NA)

a

+0.1
-11.8
-22.4

37
30
30

-18.0
r-31.3
p-7.7

26
31
29

(NA)

25

all3.87

all5.38

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26,27,28,40, and 43.
Series reaching high values before 1973 are as follows: Series 28, January 1972 (2,494); Series 29, December 1972 (208.5).
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board. 3See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

78




AUGUST 1975

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

LAGGING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.

Inventories

TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

U | P R I C E S , COSTS, AND PROFITS

B M l N V E N T O R I E S A N D INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.

20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

26. Prod, materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days
or longer®
(Percent
reporting)

32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries ®
(Percent
reporting)

25. Change in
unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries

(Bil.dol.)

• 7 1 . Manufac- 65. Mfrs.'
inventories of
turing and
trade invento- finished
goods, book
ries, book
value
value

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices

Stock Prices

Profits and Profit Margins

*23.Index of
industrial
materials
prices @

•19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks®

Corporate profits after
taxes

(1967=100)

1941-43=10)

16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

18. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1973
January
February
March

+4.1
+5.3
+3.2

63
68
67

78
84
88

+1.36
+1.64
+2.89

198.94
200.89
202.52

35.72
35.87
36.19

139.3
147.5
155.3

0)118.42
114.16
112.42

71.5

50.5

April
May
June

+4.2
+5.3
+6.9

77
80
78

90

E>92

+2.80
+3.14
+3.67

203.91
206.23
208.77

36.08
36.45
36.84

158.2
162.9
170.1

110.27
107.22
104.75

74.0

51.4

July
August
September...

+7.6
+6.3
+7.0

82
80
83

210.77
212.76
214.64

36.85
36.74
37.04

178.1
189.8
186.3

105.83
103.80
105.61

72.9

49.8

90

+2.05
+3.09
+1.90

October
November . . .
December . . .

+7.9
+5.7
+13.1

87
84
87

90
91
88

+2.42
+2.42
+1.56

216.89
219.87
224.00

37.12
37.33
37.95

188.1
192.4
208.9

109.84
102.03
94.78

73.2

49.1

January
February
March

+12.2
+11.8
+13.8

90

85

fl>91

+1.52
+2.20
+1.34

226.92
230.14
233.12

38.46
38.89
39.11

215.9
232.0
237.2

96.11
93.45
97.44

83.2

54.5

April
May
June

+12.6
+16.0
+13.5

83
84
84

79
76

+2.89
+4.20
+4.07

235.22
239.22
243.83

39.35
39.76
40.39

E>238.4
226.2
227.5

92.46
89.67
89.79

83.1

52.9

July
August
September...

H>+19.7
+17.9
+15.5

83
85
83

72
68
52

+3.58
E>+4.64
+1.39

248.78
253.31
258.62

41.34
42.09
43.a

228.2
224.2
214.7

82.82
76.03
68.12

H)94.3

B>58.2

October
November . . .
December . . .

+9.5
+4.8
+19.2

82
73
69

46
32
22

-1.47
-1.57
-2.71

264.61
267.95
271.84

44.27
45.58
46.73

204.4
196.4
183.4

69.44
71.74
67.07

79.5

46.9

4
+2.1
-6.1

64
64
58

18
16
17

-4.07
-2.63
-3.15

E>271.84
270.86
268.99

47.60
47.70
0)47.73

180.1
181.1
182.3

72.56
80.10
83.78

62.3

35.9

-12.2
-10.5
-8.2

57
54
56

22
24
26

-1.87
-0.76
r-0.72

267.49
r264.88
P264.24

47.29
47.01
46.83

I86.4
184.2
173.2

84.72
90.10
92.40

P67.4

P38.3

(NA)

53

30

p-K).O3

(NA)

(NA)

171.5
178.2

92.49
85.15

89
88
88
•

1974

85

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by B ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [F^. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28,29,30,40,41, and 43.
1

Average for August 5, 12, and 19.

BCII

AUGUST 1975



2

Average for August 6, 13, and 20.

79

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ P R I C E S , COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.

TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

Profits and Profit Margins-Con.

22. Ratio,
profits to
income
orig. in
corporate
business

15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all
mfg.corp.

*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.

(Percent)

(Cents)

(1967=100)

Cash Flows

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices

Unit Labor Costs

34. Current
dollars

35. Constant
(1958) dol.

55. Index of
wholesale
prices,
industrial
commod.@

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(1967=100)

Net cash flows, corporate

58. Index of
Unit labor cost, total
private economy
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods@
63.Index
63c. Change
over 1-Q
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100) (1967=100)

68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per
unit of gross
prod. (1958
dol.), corp.
(Dollars)

*62.Index
of labor
cost per
unit of output, mfg.

(1967=100)

1973
January
February
March

11.4

4.7

103.0
104.1
105.3

112.0

7.5

79.1

120.0
121.3
122.8

126.4
128.3
130.1

129.8

6.8
...

7.4
...

121.6
123.6
125.7

119.0

April
May
June

11.6

4-7

104.7
105.6
106.4

115.7

80.5

124.2
125.3
126.0

July
August
September

11.1

4-7

106.0
109.3
106.9

114.8

78.5

126.1
126.7
127.4

129.1
133.4
131.8

132.1

10.8

5.7

106.3
107.5
108.6

115.5

78.1

128.5
130.1
132.2

132.0
132.8
135.1

134.7

January
February
March

11.6

5.8

110.7
111.2
112.2

125.7

83-4

135.3
138.2
142.4

138.6
140.9
143.6

139.9

April
May
June

12.1

5.6

112.8
113.9
114.0

126.3

81.5

146.6
150.5
153.6

146.0
149.3
151.5

144.1

July
August
September

E>13.5

E>5.9

116.7
119.5
120.0

H>138.6

E>86.4

157.8
161.6
162.9

156.4
161.8
162.4

148.5

October
November
December

4.9

120.9
(H>121.5
119-9

164.8

11.1

125.5

74.0

I65.8
166.1

165.2
166.2
166.9

153.6

109.6
...

62.5

167.5
I68.4
168.9

168.2
168.0
167.8

157.6

P116.4

P65.5

169.7
170.3
170.7

168.7
169.5 |H>rl58.9
170.1

October
November
December

.

118.4
118.4

0.858

127.6

0.870
...

120.2
120.7
121.2

O.884
...

121.6
122.4
123.3

0.905
...

124.7
124.8
125.4

0.937
...

125-6
126.5
127.4

8.0

1974
E>16.5

...

0.964

129.0
130.2
131.8

0.993

134.0
134.6
135.5

1.023

136.8
138.1
140.5

H>1.043

144.0
144-5
147.3

pl.O39

rl47.8
rl49.2
rl49.8

12.6

12.8
...

14.4

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June

9.3

...
plO.O
.

. . .

July
August
September

(NA)

117.5
116.2
113.7
rll3.9
rll2.9
rll2.6
P113.3

0)171.2

0)171.4

10.7
...

r3.3

H>pl51.2

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 3 1 , 3 2 , 4 1 , and 43.
1
Data beginning with the 4th quarter 1973 are not comparable with earlier data due to changes in the definition of profits
and in the rules for consolidation.
The figure for the 4th quarter 1973 on the old basis is 4.8.

80




AUGUST 1975

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ J MONEY AND CREDIT

TIMING CLASS . . . .

LEADING INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process

Year

Credit Difficulties

Flows of Money and Credit

85. Change in
U.S. money
supply (M1)

and
month
(Ann. rate,
percent)

102. Change in
money supply
plus time
deposits at
commercial
banks (M2) 1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

103. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at banks
and nonbank institutions (M3)
(Ann. rate,
percent)

112. Net
33. Net change
in mortgage debi change in
held by financial bank loans to
3
institutions and businesses
life insurance
companies1 2
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)

•113. Net
change in consumer installment debt

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

110. Total
private
borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil, dot.)

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures® 1

(Mil.dol.)

39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over,
consumer
installment
loans1
(Percent)

1973

+5.16
+4.67
+0.47

+9.36
+7.02
+5.40

+10.65
+8.45
+6.99

+47.92
+49.33
+53.46

+23.70
+50.95
+41.00

+23.39
+23.96
H>+24.53

185,696

205.84
137.16
252.35

+6.51
+13.42
+13.72

+7.85
+12.03
+11.69

+8.20
+11.18
+11.76

+52.75
+53.51
+57.43

+26.14
+14.32
+13.07

+16.85
+23.89
+19.34

178,460

119.34
167.95
180.21

+3.62
-0.45
-1.35

+5.24
+6.96
+4.54

+5.96
+5.26
+4.43

+53.60
+52.30
+43.74

+22.94
+29.40
+6.02

+23.98
+22.74
+16.31

184,496

206.19
190.15
189.47

+4.06
+12.60
+9.35

+9.48
+11.97
+10.58

+8.42
+10.49
+10.27

+40.69
+39.76
+31.66

+3.13
+4.31
+17.00

+20.40
+20.71
+4.92

161,928

185.66
218.67
245.62

-2.65
+9.75
+9.23

+6.92
+11.26
+9.50

r+7.18
+9.47
r+9.52

+36.94
r+39.92
r+41.93

+19.79
+1.04
+30.01

+11.00
+8.05
+7.40

r157,203

337.28
213.13
204.59

+6.10
+4.34
+10.37

+7.99
+4.48
+11.16

+7.53
+3.68
r+9.11

r+48.34
r+47.36
r+39.54

H>+52.21
+20.42
+14.92

+13.84
+15.14 |H>r207,i96
+13.03

209.76
375.69
215.50

+5.02
+4.60
+2.99

r+4.77
r+3.75
r+2.99

r+39.83
r+31.58
r+30.66

+44.54
+14.17
+21.02

+15.90
+18.14
+8.12

rl64,008

September...

+1.71
+0.43
+0.86

153.40
232.68
217.01

October
November . . .
December . . .

+3.85
+8.52
+3.38

+8.35
+7.90
+3.73

r+7.09
r+7.66
+5.90

+29.34
+24.11
r+16.52

+9.90
+21.42
+14.22

+4.82
-4.80
-9.77

306.83
344.66
242.59

2.65

rl42,872

-9.28
+5.53
+11.01

+3.91
+9.36
+11.80

+6.48
+10.46
+13.98

r+25.07
r+30.26
r+28.99

-11.59
-39.71
r-17.42

-4.81
+2.84
-5.24

r97,464

391.14
384.76
343.35

2.59
2.71
2.94

+4.19
+10.87
H>+17.81

+7.66
+13.13
+18.83

+11.91
+14.75
G>r+19.58

r+36.54
r+39.47
p+34.94

r-22.73
r-22.70
r-18.34

-2.90
-1.50
+5.06

Pll6,588

372.08
357.79
175.92

2.74
2.65
2.63

p+2,04
4
+5.72

F+-8.34
4
+9.15

p+12.50

(NA)

p-7.32
-12.52

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September...

October
November . . ,
December . . .

2.01
2.01
l!99
2.#02

2.11
2.27

1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

August

2.'54
2.56
2*. 61

2^3

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September...

October
November . . .
December . . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by |H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [fi>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33, 34, and 41. Series reaching high values before 1973 are as follows: Series 102, February 1971
(+18.98); Series 33, December 1972 (+57.89); Series H , December 1972 (86.79); Series 39, December 1971 (l.7l). 3Data include
conventional mortgages held by GNMA. 3Data beginning October 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See October
1974 BCD, page iii. 4Average for weeks ended August 6 and 13.

IU II

AUGUST 1975




81

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

W^ MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.

TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank
Reserves

Outstanding Debt

Interest Rates

93. Free
reserves @

119. Federal funds
rate®

114. Treasury bill
rate®

(Mil.dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

Year
and
month

LAGGING INDICATORS

116. Cor115. Treas- 117. Municporate bond ury bond
ipal bond
yields®
yields®
yields®

66. Consumer
installment
debt

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Mil.dol.)

5.05
5.13
5.29

Interest Rates

*72. Commercial 109. Averand industrial
age prime
loans outstandrate charged
ing, weekly reby banks®
porting large
commercial
banks1
(Mil.dol.)
(Percent)

*67. Bank
rates on
short-term
business
loans, 35
cities®

118. Mortgage yields,
residential®

(Percent)

(Percent)

1973
126,388
128,385
130,429

93,885
98,131
101,548

6.00
6.02
6.30

6.52

7.55
7.56
7.63

6.11
6.25
6.32

131,833
133,824
135,436

103,726
104,919
106,008

6.60
7.01
7.49

7.35

7.73
7.79
7.89

7.97
8.45
8.10

6.53
6.85
6.41

107,920
110,370
110,872

8.30
9.23
9.86

9.24

5.10

137,434
139,329
140,688

8.19
(NA)
9.18

7.16
7.87
7.36

7.97
7.95
8.09

6.25
6.30
6.35

5.05
5.18
5.12

142,388
144,114
144,524

111,133
111,492
112,909

9.94
9.75
9.75

10.08

8.97
8.86
8.78

7.76
7.06
7.99

8.32
8.21
8.60

6.56
6.54
6.81

5.22
5.20
5.40

145,441
146,112
146,729

114,558
114,645
117,146

9.73
9.21
8.83

9.91

(NA)
8.54
8.66

January
February
March

-823
-1,388
-1,563

5.94
6.58
7.09

5.31
5.56
6.05

7.61
7.67
7.75

5.96
6.14
6.20

April
May
June

-1,56^
-1,638
-1,653

7.12
7.84
8.49

6.29
6.35
7.19

7.70
7.69
7.73

July
August
September...

-1,584
-1,734
-1,477

10.40
10.50
10.78

8.02
8.67
8.48

October
November . . .
December . . .

-1,141

10.01
10.03
9.95

-1,1H
-995

1974
January
February
March

-790
-1,444

9.65
8.97
9.35

April
May
June

-1,506
-2,282
-2,739

10.51
11.31
11.93

8.23
8.43
8.14

9.04
9.39
9.59

7.04
7.09
7.02

5.73
6.02
6.13

147,882
149,144
150,230

121,497
123,199
124,442

10.02
11.25
11.54

11.15

9.17
9.46
9.46

July
August
September...

-2,982 E>12.92
-3,008
12.01
-2,957
11.34

7.75
E>8.74
8.36

10.18
10.30
H>10.44

6.68
6.71
6.76

151,555
153,067
153,744

128,154
129,335
130,988

11.98
12.00
D12.00

IH>12.40

9.85
10.30
E>10.38

October
November . . .
December . . .

-1,585
-960
-332

10.06
9.45
8.35

7.24
7.58
7.18

10.29
9.22
9.47

7.18
E>7.33
7.30
7.22
6.93
6.77

6.57
6.61
7.05

H>154,146
153,746
152,932

131,813
133,598
|R>134,783

11.68
10.83
10.50

11.64

10.13
(NA)
9.51

+95
+167

7.13
6.24
5.54

6.49
5.58
5-54

9.17
8.84
9.48

6.68
6.66
6.77

6.82
6.39
6.74

152,531
152,768
152,331

133,817
130,508
rl29,506

10.05
8.96
7.93

9.94

8.99
8.84
8.69

+17
-52
r+288

5.49
5.22
5.55

5.69
5.32
5.19

9.81
9.76
9.27

7.05
7.01
6.86

6.95
6.97
6.95

152,089
151,964
152,386

rl27,l62
rl25,270
rl23,742

7.50
7.47
7.08

8.16

(NA)
9.16
9.06

6.89
7.07

B>7.07
5
7.15

(MA)

-980

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June

-4a
,

July
Auyust
September..

¥

2

6.10
6.11

3

6.16
6.39

9.56
9.69

4

4

pl23,132
122,089

6

7

7.14
7.61

9.13

October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H > ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35,36, and 43.
3
1
D a t a beginning with September 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See October 1 9 7 4 BCD, page iii.
Average
3
4
for weeks ended August 6, 1 3 , and 2 0 . Average for weeks ended August 2 , 9, 1 6 and 2 3 . Average for weeks ended August 1, 8,
1 5 , and 2 2 . 5 Average for weeks ended August 1, 8, and 1 5 . 6 Average for weeks ended August 6 and 1 3 .
Average for August 1
through 2 2 .

82




AUGUST 1975 B O !

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing

QgjCOMPOSITE INDEXES

Year
and
month

820. Five
coinciders,
estimated
aggregate
economic
activity
(series 41,43,
47,52, 56)

825. Five
coinciders, estimated aggregate economic
activity,
deflated
(series 41,43,
47, 52D, 56D)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

830. Six
laggers
(series 44,
61,62,67,
71,72)

Leading Indicator Subgroups

813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1,2,
3,5)

814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6,10,
12,29)

815.Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25,31,37)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

816. Profitability
(series 16,
17,19)

(1967=100)

817. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33,85,
112,113)

(1967=100)

1973
January
February
March

147.6
149-4
150.9

134-9
136.1
136.5

145.6
149.2
151.9

102.2
102.5
103.2

121.2
121.6
122.2

114.8
116.6
118.8

115.6
116.3
118.5

124.2
125.9
(H)128.6

April
May
June

151.8
153-3
154.5

136.7
137.4
137.6

155.6
158.3
162.5

E)1O3.3
103.2
102.3

120.8
120.9
H>122.4

118.6
121.3
123.9

118.1
119.0
118.8

120.4
123.7
121.9

July
August
September

156.4
157.4
158.5

139.5
138.7
139.9

167.4
171.0
173.6

101.7
102.2
102.8

121.1
120.5
118.9

123.6
126.9
125.3

118.6
120.8
119.2

122.5
117.4
108.7

October
November
December

161.0
162.6
162.1

141.6
E>142.2
140.5

177.2
178.9
182.2

102.6
100.8
97.7

118.9
119.2
116.1

127.1
129.1
132.9

119.6
119.0
119.5

108.2
110.6
104.7

January
February
March

161.6
162.4
163.6

138.8
138.4
138.5

184.3
186.4
190.8

95.3
95.2
94-8

115.7
116.6
117.3

132.1
135.2
134.6

122.8
123.7
125.6

106.9
109.6
115.8

April
June

I64.8
165.9
166.6

138.7
138.6
138.2

195.1
199.8
204.5

95.6
95.6
96.1

118.3
118.4
117.4

135.3
137.3
138.0

124.8
125.0
126.4

123.1
121.0
116.1

July
August
September

168.5
169.5
169.5

138.8
rl38.5
137.4

210.5
214.5
216.3

95.8
94.3
92.3

118.8
115.9
113.3

137.8
E>138.O
134.4

128.0
E>129.4
125.4

115.8
113.7
105.5

October
November
December

D169.5
165.9
161.2

136.2
rl32.2
rl27.9

219.0
E> 220.4
220.0

88.5
85.0
83.1

109.6
108.4
108.6

129.4
124.0
120.3

124.9
124.4
119.4

106.2
rlOl.l
93.2

157.8
156.4
154.1

rl24.9
rl23.7
ri.21.8

217.8
212.9
r210.3

81.2
80.9
81.8

104.0
103.9
103.7

113.0
111.8
110.6

117.1
115.9
1-115.7

r89.8
r91.2
89.2

April
May
June

154.8
1-155.3
157.8

rl22.0
122.4
124.2

r205.3
r201.3
r200.0

83.3
r83.6
P85.2

107.5
108.8
rllO.9

111.9
rll2.2
rll2.2

1-II6.8
1*118.2
1-118.7

94.0
r96.1
P98.8

July
August
September

X

1

p200.5

(NA)

P113.2

pill.3

P119.6

(NA)

1974

May

1975
January
February
March

158.2

123.9

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated b y ® . Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by[H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.

•"•Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.

The new index of 12 leading indicators is shown on pages v and vii; the old leading index is shown on page 112.

ItCII AUGUST 1975




83

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Q |

Year
and
quarter

AGGREGATE SERIES

61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual

c. First
anticipations as
percent of actual

(Percent)

(Percent)

4 4. Condition
oi manufacturers'
inventories: perce nt considered
h gh less percent
C(jnsidered low

412. Manufacturers' inventories,
total book value

410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

(Percent)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

86.79
87.12
87.67
91.94

100.9
104.1
103.1
100.5

100.4
102.3
102.3
99.9

177.6
182.2
187.6
197.5

103.0
104.3
106.2
107.7

12
10
11
10

96.19
97.76
100.90
103.74

100.6
100.8
101.0
101.2

100.5
102.4
100.9
100.6

205.3
210.6
216.7
225.4

110.2
113.0
116.1
120.9

9
11
12
13

107.27
111.40
113.99
116.22

99.9
99.3
99.1
98.4

100.8
98.7
'
99.3
99.8

231.6
255.7
253.7

126.5
133.5
143.0
150.4

18
22
23
31

114-57

98.8
(NA)

103.0
(NA)

235.0
a249.8
a263.9

151.2
al48.1
al53.9

30
(NA)

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

2a.3

1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

all3.39
all3.87
all5.38

H |

I f l AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.

Year
and
quarter

416. Adequacy
of mfrs.' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(Percent)

D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries

435. Index of
consumer
sentiment ®

b. Second
anticipations

a. Actual
expenditures
(First quarter
1966=100)

DIFFUSION INDEXES

(1-Qspan)

D440. New orders,
manufacturing1 ®
Actual

c. First
anticipations

(1-Qspan)

(1-Qspan)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

24
26
31
35

87.5
89.3
94.0
90.8

44.4
50.0
55.6
83.3

77.8
63.9
88.9
75.0

75.0
44.4
47.2
50.0

82
84
86
84

82
86
88
88

41
45
48
51

80.8
76.0
71.8
75.7

83.3
61.1
83.3
66.7

77.8
77.8
72.2
75.0

86.1
63.9
61.1
72.2

88
90
88
86

88
90
88
87

51
49
45
32

60.9
72.0
64.5
58.4

77.8
86.1
61.1
63.9

72.2
77.8
61.1
55.6

75.0
86.1
69.4
61.1

84
82
74
59

86
80
85
80

22
(NA)

58.0
72.9

38.9
(NA)

36.1

a.7

66.7
52.8
66.7

50
54

72
59
70
73

1973
First quarter
...
Second quarter . ..
Third quarter
Fourth quarter ..
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 4 4 , 4 5 , and 46.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,

Inc.

84




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Q J

Year
and
quarter

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade1 ®

D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade1 ©

D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1 ®
Actual

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.

(4-Q span)

Actual

Anticipated

D450. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1 ®
Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

74
76
79
80

76
82
84
83

82
82
85
86

83
88
90
88

56
58
62
60

58
60
61
60

64
66
72
71

61
66
66
66

78
79
76
76

82
85
84
80

86
89
86
85

88
90
90
88

63
62
60
60

60
63
62
60

73
76
75
76

69
72
72
70

74
76
71
63

80
74
79
77

82
84
80
70

86
78
86
82

58
59
56
49

61
56
60
58

78
79
78
69

70
67
72
72

52
53

68
58
66
67

57
58

75
62
73
74

44
44

53
48
54
54

58
52

64
54
50
54

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

j R

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Selling prices

Year
and
quarter

D460. Manufacturing
and trade1 ©
Actual

D462. Manufacturing1 ®

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

D464. Wholesale trade1 ©
Actual

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

D466. Retail trade1 ®
Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

74
76
76
78

68
74
75
72

70
72
72
74

68
72
72
70

80
81
82
80

70
78
80
74

73
78
79
81

67
74
74
74

86
86
90
92

76
82
85
83

82
84
86
90

73
80
83
82

90
89
92
96

80
86
88
84

90
87
93
93

76
85
88
83

94
96
94
90

87
90
92
91

92
96
94
89

86
89
92
90

96
96
94
91

88
94
92
91

92
97
96
92

87
89
92
93

80
80

87
76
69
76

81
78

86
76
68
74

80
79

87
74
70
76

80
84

88
75
72
79

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
-'•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.

IM:

AUGUST 1975




85

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

FOREIGN TRADE

Year
and
month

500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)

(Mil.dol.)

502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

(Mil.dol.)

506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles
and parts

(Mil.dol.)

508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery

(1967=100)

512. General imports, total

(Mil.dol.)

1973
January
February
March

-289
-413
-102

4,955
5,070
5,311

2,304
2,248
2,307

164
172
184

5,244
5,483
5,414

April
May
June

+133
-142
-47

5,494
5,561
5,728

2,111
2,258
2,109

193
184
207

5,360
5,703
5,775

July
August
September...

+37
+32
+776

5,865
6,042
6,420

2,228
2,853
2,10^

189
192
194

5,829
6,010
5,644

October
November . . .
December . . .

+589
+194
+658

6,585
6,879
6,949

2,633
2,291
2,665

195
205
191

5,996
6,684
6,291

January
February
March

+652
+231
-116

7,150
7,549
7,625

2,828
2,872
3,115

213
216
205

6,498
7,318
7,742

April
May
June

+82
-612
-260

8,108
7,652
8,317

3,375
3,520
2,960

219
206
210

8,025
8,264
8,577

July
August
September..

-615
-BBB
-297

8,307
8,379
8,399

2,900
3,204
3,327

211
219
215

8,922
9,267
8,696

October
November . .
December . .

-1OO
0
-395

8,673
8,973
8,862

3,565
3,264
3,305

207
190
178

8,773
8,973
9,257

January
February . . .
March

-210
+917
+1,380

9,412
8,789
8,716

3,295
3,166
3,647

187
172
178

9,622
7,872
7,336

April
May
June

+557
+1,052
+1,737

8,570
8,145
8,692

3,193
3,446
3,531

194
191
P195

8,013
7,093
6,954

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1974

1975

July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.

86




AUGUST 1975

IICII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

0 1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

Year
and
quarter

250. Balance
on goods and
services

(Mil.dol.)

515. Balance
on goods, services,
and remittances

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

522. Official
reserve transactions balance

521. Net
liquidity balance

519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital

517. Balance
on current
account

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners1®

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

-1,786
-1,657
-1,245
-1,243

-2,187
-2,050
-1,625
-1,674

-2,773
-2,608
-2,198
-2,131

-3,953
-2,338
-2,966
-1,855

-3,460
-2,287
-4,570
-3,511

-3,563
-624
-4,681
-1,485

66,925
69,880
75,498
78,679

-361
166
1,553
2,820

-755
-228
1,147
2,110

-1,116
-849
653
1,647

-1,393
-1,085
1,917
-419

-6,811
-1,719
1,826
-950

-10,629
551
2,318
2,449

85,361
86,279
86,576
87,572

2,545
-457
-718
480

-51
-1,865
-1,526
-169

1,624
-2,380
-3,600
-6,573

-1,199
-6,212
-3,909
-7,725

552
-4,192
119
-4,855

91,160
98,837
105,404
112,825

P2,886

P2,148

(NA)

P-475
(NA)

r P 2,945
pi,226

rp-3,255
p-1,600

P 113,143

(NA)

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974

2 5

f)

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

-261
919

1975
P3,344
(NA)

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

(NA)

IMBALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Year
and
quarter

532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1®
(Mil.dol.)

534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets3®

(Mil.dol.)

Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Goods and services

Merchandise, adjusted4

252. Exports

253. Imports

536. Exports

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

537. Import 5
(Mil.dol.

Income on investment, military
transactions, other services
540. Exports
(Mil.dol.)

541. Imports
(Mil.dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

53,806
54,604
60,075
61,526

12,270
13,339
13,217
13,151

17,247
17,275
18,349
19,729

19,033
18,932
19,594
20,972

11,798
11,699
12,496
13,395

13,489
13,296
14,027
14,985

5,449
5,576

5,544
5,636

5,853
6,334

5,567
5,98,

71,336
70,701
69,777
66,814

12,931
12,914
12,927
14,378

22,329
24,144
26,282
29,298

22,690
23,978
24,729
26,478

15,423
16,958
18,451
20,547

16,334
17,189
17,737
19,164

6,906
7,186
7,831
8,751

6,356
6,789
6,992
7,314

65,620
70,030
72,716
76,624

14,588
14,946
15,893
15,883

33,324
35,498
37,179
38,405

30,409
35,498
37,440
37,486

22,451
r24,207
r25,028
r26,583

r22,586
r25,668
r27,301
r27,973

10,873
11,292
12,153
11,820

7,758
9,755
10,073
9,451

p79,176
(NA)

16,256
16,242

P37,161
(NA)

P33,817
(NA)

p27,222
p25,837

rp25,3O5
p22,301

P9,939
(NA)

p8,436
(NA)

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49, 50, and 51.
* Amount outstanding at end of quarter. 2Less than $500,000 (+). 3Reserve position
at end of quarter. 4Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).

ItCII AUGUST 1975




87

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Year
and
quarter

Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)

544. Receipts
from foreign travelers in the U.S.
(Mil.dolJ

543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)

542. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil.dol.)

Transportation and other services

Military transactions

Travel

Income on investments

545. Payments
by U.S. travelers
abroad
(Mil.dol.)

549. Payments

548. Receipts
from

547. Military
expenditures
abroad ®
(Mil.dol.)

546. Sales under
military contracts
(Mil.dol.)

for
(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

1972
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

2,2742,387
2,595
2,905

1,364
1,403
1,462
1,612

673
695
713
736

1,232
1,231
1,250
1,329

332
281
255
295

1,222
1,272
1,105
1,185

2,170
2,213
2,290
2,398

1,726
1,730
1,750
1,861

3,123
3,304
3,576
3,995

1,799
2,096
2,413
2,511

836
817
860
899

1,338
1,394
1,375
1,419

347
4-55
531
1,009

1,174
1,236
1,072
1,177

2,600
2,610
2,864
2,84.8

2,045
2,063
2,132
2,207

6,129
6,447
7,054
6,438

2,884.
4,483
4-,700
3,879

997
995
1,016
1,064

1,463
1,476
1,455
1,579

663
678
766
837

1,166
1,324.
1,279
1,335

3,084.
3,212
3,317
3,4-81

2,245
2,472
2,639
2,658

P4,346
(NA)

p3,021
(NA)

pi,162
(NA)

pl,559
(NA)

p948
(NA)

pi,295
(NA)

p3,4-83
(NA)

p2,56l
(NA)

1973
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

^BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers

Year
and
quarter

Securities investments

Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)

561. U.S. investments

564. Foreign purchases
of U.S. securities

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities

575. Banking and other
capital transactions, net

570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net

riil. dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

-221
216
156
229

1,121
335
1,315
760

1,059
961
718
1,769

476
318
-203
28

-747
-837
-993
-1,311

-923
365
-1,121
-1,518

371
583
990
711

2,065
1,025
539
1,339

1,718
489
1,173
675

-30
111
216
462

-910
-571
-1,567
-1,551

-2,096
-580
-152
-3,050

1,177
1,700
-1
-653

745
1,572
1,828
3,123

692
440
204
-663

646
313
304
726

-1,294
-670
-930
-1,487

-7,019
-7,616
-1,783
-4,047

P326
(NA)

P937
(NA)

p604
p701

p2,033
P970

P-1,439
(NA)

P-2.336
(NA)

1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.




AUGUST 1975

BUI

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

• FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Defense Indicators

Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month

600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

602. Federal
expenditures,
national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

264. National
defense purchases

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
(Mil. dol.)

621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

648. New orders, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions

(Mil. dol.)

1973

-11.2

249.1

260.2

75.0

6,840
7,337
7,361

1,631
1,838
1,704

1.62
1.63
1.80

2,824
2,899
2,947

April
May
June

-7.4

255.0

262.4

74.0

6,739
7,269
7,069

1,349
1,730
1,633

1.90
1.79
1.96

2,568
3,171
2,897

July
August
September..,

-1.7

261.8

263.4

73.3

7,203
7,039
6,260

1,483
1,676
1,099

1.18
1.90
1.34

2,106
3,276
3,222

October
November . . .
December . . .

-2.3

268.3

270.6

75.3

7,671
7,443
6,794

1,788
1,771
1,149

1.83
2.12
1.45

3,176
3,515
2,850

-2.

278.1

281.0

75.8

7,527
7,348
7,186

2,077
1,708
1,642

2.18
2.06
1.46

3,378
3,141
2,677

April
May
June

-3.0

288.6

291.6

76.6

7,883
7,302
7,663

2,040
1,330
1,412

1.53
2.08
1.75

4,343
2,881
3,440

July
August
September...

-1.9

302.8

304.7

78.4

8,177
8,199
7,781

1,919
1,692
1,842

1.38
3.23
1.68

3,494
4,153
3,502

October
November . . ,
December . . ,

-24.5

294.7

319.3

84.O

7,603
8,138
8,228

1,446
2,349
1,431

1.40
2.35
1.67

4,161
3,777
2,532

-54.4

284.1

338.5

84.7

7,^09
7,508
8,223

1,424
1,509
2,349

1.64
2.15

3,693
3,987
2,817

r84.8

7,95.2
8,235
7,553

1,425
1,850
1,348

(NA)

(NA)

1.64
1.66
rl.91
P2.04

January
February
March

1974
January
February
March

,

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June

p-104.6

P25O.5

July
August
September...

r355.O

1.70

4,122
3,926
(NA)

October
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.

AUGUST 1975



89

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

J J P R I C E MOVEMENTS

Year
and
month

Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product
211. Index

(1958=100)

Consumer price indexes

211c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

782. Food

All items
781. Index®

781c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(1967=100)

(Percent)

783. Commodities less
food

784. Services®

(1967=100)

781c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

1973
January
February
March

145.1

April
May
June

148.0

July
August
September

151.0

October
November
December

154.4

7.4

127.7
128.6
129.8

0.5
0.6
0.8

6.8
7.3
7.9

129.2
131.0
134.0

121.0
121.4
121.9

135.7
136.2
136.6

8.1

130.7
131.5
132.4

0.7
0.5

7.5
10.0
8.7

136.2
137.9
139.8

122.4
122.8
123.3

137.1
137.6
138.1

132.7
135.1
135.5

0.3
1.7

8.9
9.6
9.7

139.9
148.8
148.0

123.5
123.9
124.2

138.4
139.3
140.6

136.6
137.6
138.5

0.8

11.4
10.0
11.7

149.0
150.9
152.1

125.0
125.9
126.8

142.2
143.0
143.8

139.7
141.5
143.1

1.1
1.1
1.0

11.3
11.8
12.3

154.6
157.4
158.2

128.4
129.8
131.5

144.8
145.9
147.1

12.2

143.9
145.5
146.9

0.7
1.0
0.9

11.8
11.8
12.1

158.3
159.7
I6O.3

132.9
134.2
135.8

148.0
149.5
150.9

13.8

148.0
149.9
151.7

0.8
1.1
1.2

12.7
12.5
12.2

159.4
162.2
I64.8

137.5
139.3
140.8

152.6
154.2
156.0

12.6

153.0
154.3
155.4

0.9

11.7
10.4
8.5

166.9
168.8
170.4

141.8
142.9
143.8

157.3
158.7
160.1

7.8
6.6

171.9
171.4
170.3

144.5
145.6
146.4

161.3
162.6
163.2

170.9
171.8
174.4

147.5
147.8
148.5

I64.I
164.5
165.7

177.4

149.9

166.6

8.4

9.1

0.6

0.3
0.8

0.7

1974
January
February
March

14.1

April
May
June

164.2

July
August
September

169.6

October
November
December

174.7

0.9

0.8

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

7.7
178.0

r5.5
rl80.4

0.6

156.1
157.2
157.8

0.5
0.3

158.6
159.3
160.6

0.6
0.4
0.8

162.3

1.2

6.6
7.6

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

90




AUGUST 1975

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.

Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month

750. All
commodities©

58. Manufactured
goods©

751. Processed
foods and feeds

752. Farm
products

Industrial commodities
55. I n d e x ®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

55c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)

55c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

1973
January
February
March

124.5
126.9
129.8

121.6
123.6
125.7

131.7
135.5
140.4

143.3
147.5
158.1

120.0
121.3
122.8

0.2
0.9
1.1

8.0
8.6
9.3

April
May
June

130.5
133.2
136.0

126.4
128.3
130.1

141.5
145.9
150.7

161.7
170.2
178.4

124.2
125.3
126.0

0.8
0.8
0.7

9.4
8.6
7.8

July
August
September..,

134.3
142.1
139.7

129.1
133.4
131.8

145.5
164.9
156.3

172.1
211.8
201,8

126.1
126.7
127.4

0.2
0.6
0.7

8.4
10.0
12.3

October
November . . .
December . . .

138.7
139.2
141.8

132.0
132.8
135.1

154.5
154.8
155.7

193.6
189.9
189.9

128.5
130.1
132.2

1.1
1.5
1.8

16.5
19.8
24.9

January
February
March

146.6
149.5
151.4

138.6
140.9
143.6

161.1
162.6
161.5

200.6
200.4
193.5

135.3
138.2
142.4

2.0
2.0
2.8

28.5
31.1
32.2

April
May
June

,

152.7
155.0
155.7

146.0
149.3
151.5

I6I.4
160.0
156.0

187.9
180.8
164.5

146.6
150.5
153.6

2.6
2.5
2.2

34.4
35.6
30.8

July
August
,
September...

161.7
167.4
167.2

156.4
161.8
162.4

166.9
177.9
177.0

180.8
186.8
184.4

157.8
161.6
162.9

2.9
2.5
1.0

27.9
23.8
19.5

October
November . . ,
December . . ,

170.2
171.9
171.5

165.2
166.2
166.9

185.0
193.8
188.2

193.1
194.0
186.1

I64.8
165.8
166.1

1.5
0.8
0.4

14.0
9.5
7.6

171.8
171.3
170.4

168.2
168.0
167.8

185.3
180.3
175.7

177.9
170.2
168.1

167.5
I68.4
168.9

0.5
0.4
0.1

4.7
3.4
3.4

April
May
June

172.1
173.2
173.7

168.7
169.5
170.1

181.9
180.3
178.1

179.3
184.5
181.7

169.7
170.3
170.7

0.1
0.2
0.4

3.2

July
August
September..,

175.7

171.4

183.9

193.7

171.2

0.4

1974

1975
January
February
March

,

October
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes
are placed on the 4th month.

AUGUST 1975




91

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1
Year
and
month

Real earnings

Current dollar earnings

740.Index

(1967=100)

740c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

740c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

741.Index

(1967=100)

741c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

741c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

859. Real
spendable
avg. weekly
earnings of
nonagri. prod,
or nonsupv.
workers

(1967 dot.)

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy
Current dollar compensation

745. Index

(1967=100)

745c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

745c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

1973
January
February
March

142.3
142.7
U3.5

O.3
0.2
0.6

5.9
5.9
5.9

111.2
110.8
110.5

-0.2
-0.4
-0.3

-0.8
-1.3
-1.9

96.42
96.32
96.17

145.3

April
May
June

144-4
144 o 8
146.0

0.7
0.2
0.8

6.4
7.1
7.7

110.4
110.1
110.4

-0.1
-0.3
0.3

-1.0
-2.6
-1.0

96.34
95.83
95.89

147.3

July
August
September...

146.8
147.7
148.9

0.6
0.6
0.8

7.2
7.8
7.2

110.6
109.4
110.0

0.2
-1.1
0.5

-1.5
-1.6
-2.3

96.23
94.78
95.40

149.7

October
November . . .
December . . .

149.6
150.3
151.1

0.5
0.5
0.5

6.7
6.9
6.5

109.6
109.3
109.1

-0.4
-0.3
-0.2

-4.2
-2.9
-4.7

94-58
94.43
94.22

152.7

January
February
March

151.7
152.6
153.6

0.4
0.6
0.6

6.5
7.8
9.6

108.3
107.8
107.4

-0.7
-0.5
-0.4

-4.4
-3.5
-2.4

92.75
92.52
91.77

156.0

April
May
June

154.3
156.1
158.2

0.4
1.2
1.3

9.5
10.2
11.1

107.2
107.3
107.8

-0.2
0.1
0.5

-2.0
-1.4
-0.9

91.16
91.62
91.55

160.2

July
August
September..,

158.7
160.2
161.9

0.3
1.0
1.1

11.7
10.3

8.9

107.2
107.0
106.9

-0.6
-0.2
-0.1

-0.9
-1.9
-2.9

91.18
90.90
90.78

163.9

October
November . .
December . .

163.1
163.9
165.1

0.7
0.5
0.7

9.3
8.9
8.7

106.7
106.3
106.2

-0.2
-0.4
-0.1

-2.1
-1.3
0.3

90.31
88.79
89.08

167.7

166.0
167.2
168.8

0.5
0.7
1.0

7.0
r7.5
r8.2

106.0
IO6.3
107.0

-0.2
0.3
0.7

-0.7
rO.9
rl.5

88.08
87.69
87.59

171.6

April
May
June

168.8
rl70.0
rl71.7

0.0
rO.7
rl.O

P7.5

106.3
rlO6.8
rl07.0

-0.7
rO.5
r0.2

p-0.2

87.46
91.54
r91.36

pl74.5

July
August
September..

pl72.0

p0.2

plO6.O

p-0.9

11.2
7.5
5.6
7.9
6.8
7.3
8.2

8.7

1974

8.8
9.4
11.2
9.8
9.7
10.0
9.6
P9.0

1975
January
February . . .
March

9.6

p7.0

p90.88

October....
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle
month of the 3d quarter.

92




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.

Year
and
month

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.

748. First
year average
changes

Real compensation
746. Index

(1967=100)

746c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per man-hour, total
private economy

Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

749. Average
changes over
life of
contract

(Ann. rate,
percent)

770.Index

(1967=100)

858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm

770c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

1.8

114.1

0.6

113.7

-2.6

113.6

-2.1

113.4

-2.2

111.6

-3.7

111.0

-1.7

110.3

P-1.3

109.4

1973
January .,
February ,
March . . ,

112.8

April
May.
June

112.0

July
August
September.

111./,

October..
November
December

111.0

4.6

-2.8
-2.0

5.6

0.6

7.1
...
...

-0.4

7.8

115.1

-2.3

7.2

114.8

115.8
6.7

-2.1

5.6

-1.4

-1.7

5.3

-1.3

0.8

115.0

6.1

1974
P 6.9

-3.1

January .,
February ,
March . . ,

110.2

April
May.
June

110.1

July
August
September.

109.5

October..
November
December

108.7

112.7
p9.2

-0.1

-2.1
-3-2

-1.9

pll.9
-0.9

p-0.6

-7.6

P5.9

-1.8

pl4.6

P7.5

p7.9

P 8.7

0.1

112.8
-1.9

112.2
-5.1

110.8

1975
January .
February
March . . .
April
May.
June

1.6

P13.0

P7.5

109.2
pl.O
plO9.4

0.0

108.9

110.8
P9.3

P 7.7

pill.3

p2.0

P109.8

July
August
September.
October..
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans* 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.

BCII AUGUST 1975




93

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

•CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

841. Total

(Thous.)

842. Employed

(Thous.)

Unemployment rates
843. Unemployed

844. Males
20 years and
over

(Thous.)

(Percent)

845. Females
20 years and
over

(Percent)

846. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

847. White

(Percent)

848. Negro
and other races

(Percent)

1973
January
February
March

86,964
87,703
88,043

82,633
83,276
83,686

4,331
4,427
4,357

3.4
3.4
3.4

5.2
4.9
4.9

14.3
15.4
14.2

4.5
4.5
4.4

9.0
8.9

April
May
June

88,296
88,325
88,791

83,877
84,021
84,487

4,419
4,304
4,304

3.3
3.3
3.2

4.8
4.6
4.9

15.3
15.0
14.0

4.4
4.4
4.3

9.3
9.1
8.9

July
August
September...

88,902
88,816
89,223

84,679
84,582
84,983

4,223
4,234
4,240

3.1
3.1
3.1

4.8
4.9

14.3
14.3
14.3

4.2
4.2
4.2

9.2
8.9
9.3

October
November . . .
December . . .

89,568
89,852
90,048

85,452
85,577
85,646

4,116
4,275
4,402

3.0
3.1
3.2

4.5
4.7
5.0

14.1
14.6
14.4

4.1
4.2
4.4

8.4
8.8
8.4

January
February
March

90,465
90,551
90,381

85,800
85,861
85,779

4,665
4,690
4,602

3.4
3.5
3.4

5.1
5.1
5.0

15.5
15.0
15.0

4.7
4.6
4.6

9.2
9.2
9.2

Aprit
May
June

90,324
90,753
90,857

85,787
86,062
86,088

4,537
4,691
4,769

3.5
3.4
3.5

5.0
5.1
5.1

14.0
15.6
15.8

4.5
4.7
4.8

8.8
9.3
9.0

July
August
September..

91,283
91,199
91,705

86,403
86,274
86,402

4,880
4,925
5,303

3.6
3.8
3.9

5.2
5.3
5.7

16.2
15.3
16.7

4.8
4.9
5.3

9.4
9.4
9.9

October
November . .
December . .

91,844
91,708
91,803

86,304
85,689
85,202

5,540
6,019
6,601

4.3
4.6
5.3

5.6
6.6
7.2

17.1
17.4
18.1

5.5
5.9
6.4

10.9
11.6
12.5

January
February . . .
March

92,091
91,511
91,829

84,562
84,027
83,849

7,529
7,484
7,980

6.0
6.2
6.8

8.1
8.1
8.5

20.8
19.9
20.6

7.5
7.4
8.0

13.4
13.5
14.2

April
May
June

92,262
92,940
92,340

84,086
84,402
84,444
85,078

8,176
8,538

7,896

7.0
7.3
7.0

8.6
8.6
8.1

20.4
21.8
19.2

8.1
8.5
7.9

7,838

7.0

7.9

19.1

7.9

14.6
14.7
13-7
13.0

1974

1975

July
August
September..

92,916

October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.

94




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Q | ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP

Year
and
quarter

Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)

206. Potential GNP

205. Actual GNP

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

770.9
786.6
798.1

8U.2

806.8
814..7
822.8
830.9

+35.9
+28.1
+24.7
+16.7

832.8
837.484.0.8
845.7

839.1
84-7.3
855.7
86^.1

+6.3
+9.9
+U.9
+18.4

830.5
827d
823.1
804.0

872.6
881.2
889.9
898.7

+4.2.1
+54.1
+66.8
+94.7

780.0
r783.1

907.6
916.5

+127.6
r+133.4.

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.

Special Note on Potential GNP
The following note has been provided by the Council of Economic
Advisers regarding potential GNP.
The idea of potential GNP has had a long history. Its measurement by
the Council of Economic Advisers was started in the Economic Report of
the Council in 1962. Since that time, it has been used as a standard with
which to evaluate the past and future behavior of the economy.
Potential GNP purports to measure what the economy would produce
if all of its resources were fully utilized given the technology and
institutional arrangements that have existed at the time. "Fully utilized" has
never meant the kind of utilization that would prevail, say, under wartime
conditions but rather the utilization that could be expected under conditions
of reasonable price stability. This has always been less than complete
utilization. Under ordinary circumstances, some unemployment is present
because some workers are in the process of changing jobs; similarly, some old
plants are idle because market conditions do not permit them to operate
profitably. In the past, this degree of utilization has been reflected in an
overall unemployment rate of 4 percent. The rate of inflation associated
with that degree of unemployment has typically not been specified.
Furthermore, notions of what constitutes reasonable price stability can vary
over time.
Potential GNP is not something ordinarily observable. In practice, the

AUGUST 1975



Council in 1962 made the judgment that the economy was operating at 100
percent of potential in mid-1955. Since that time potential GNP has been
estimated to grow at differing annual rates, as follows: 3.5 percent from the
first quarter of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 1962, 3.75 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1962 to the fourth quarter of 1965, 4 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1969. At the beginning of
1970, the Council estimated that after the fourth quarter of 1969 potential
was growing at an annual rate of 4.3 percent, reflecting a rise of 1.8 percent
in the potential labor force, a 0.2 percent decline in annual hours of work,
and a 2.7 percent rise in output per manhour at potential. Drawing on a new
study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("The United States Economy in
1985", Monthly Labor Review, December 1973), the Council has lowered its
estimate of potential growth after 1969 to 4 percent per annum, reflecting
the following component changes: labor force, 1.8 percent; annual hours,
—0.3 percent; output per manhour, 2.5 percent.
Although potential is presented in the chart on page 61 and the table
above as a point estimate each quarter, it is clearly subject to a margin of
error and consequently, as with any measure of capacity, should be used
with considerable caution. There are uncertainties regarding both the growth
and the level of potential. It cannot be reasonably assumed that potential
grows in each year or quarter at the same annual rate. Some qualifications
about the measure of potential appear on pages 64-65 of the 1974 Economic
Report.

95

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

ANALYTICAL RATIOS

Year
and
month

850. Ratio,
output to capacity,
manufacturing

851. Ratio,
inventories to sales,
manufacturing
and trade

852. Ratio, manufacturers' unfilled
orders to shipments,
durable goods
industries

853. Ratio,
production of
business equipment
to consumer goods

(Percent)

(Ratio)

(Ratio)

(1967=100)

854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income

(Ratio)

860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed

857. Vacancy rate
in total rental
housing®

(Ratio)

(Percent)

Revised1

1973
January
February
March

p82.8
•••

I.46
1.45

2.59
2.61
2.67

90.1
90.8
90.7

0.075

0.866
0.847
0.867

5.7

April
May

pS3.3

2.73
2.79
2.89

91.4
92.0
92.9

0.078

0.842
0.871
0.878

5.8

June

1.46
1.46
1.48

July
August
September...

1.45
1.46
1.47

2.89
3.01
3.06

92.6
95.0
95.1

0.080

0.910
0.886
0.878

5.8

p82.6

1.45
1.44
1.49

3.00
3.04
3.14

95.2
95.7
96.6

0.095

0.918
0.877
0.825

5.8

0.5

1.47
1.47
I.46

3.13
3.16
3.15

98.1
99.2
99.3

0.089

0.747
0.737
0.757

6.2

April
May,
June

p8o!l

1.46
1.47
1.50

3.21
3.22
3.30

99.5
100.4
100.0

0.074

0.787
0.755
0.743

6.3

July
August
September..,

1.47
1.48
1.51

3.38
3.44
3.45

101.0

p79.4

0.066

0.720
0.689
0.601

6.2

October
November . .
December . .

p75.7

1.54
1.59
1.68

3.30
3.38
3.57

103.0
103.7
103.0

0.086

0.532
0.450
0.383

6.0

1.68
1.66
1.70

3.50
3.44
3.48

101.8

p68.2

100.4
99.0

0.075

0.304
0.302
0.276

6.1

1.65
1.63
pi. 60

3.29
3.AA
P3.31

r96.5
r95.4

0.106

0.269
0.258
0.305

6.3

(NA)

(NA)

P91.3

October
November . . .
December . . .
1974
January
February
March

99.2

102.7

1975
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September..

pO.319

October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.

"'•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue", page iii.

96




AUGUST 1975

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Leading Indicators
Year
and
month

D1. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing
(21 industries)

D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)

D11. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
The Conference Board
(17 industries)

1-month
span

1-month
span

1-quarter
span

9-month
span

9-month
span

3-quarter
span

D34. Profits,
D19. Index of stock
mfg., FNCB
prices, 500 common stocks
(about 1,000
(65-71 industries)2®
corporations)
1-quarter
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
span

9-month
span

1973
January
February
March

35.7
95.2
59.5

50.0
28.6
33.3

65.7
61.4
77.1

90.0
85.7
91.4

82

94

62

26.8
14.5
19.6

26.5
19.1
25.0

84.6
84.6
76.9

92.3
92.3
92.3

April
May
June

50.0
28.6
19.0

26.2
61.9
71.4

61.4
54.3
48.6

82.9
88.6
85.7

53

76

61

21.7
14.7
15.4

19.1
17.6
30.9

61.5
80.8
76.9

92.3
92.3
92.3

July
August
,
September..,

57d
28.6
83.3

33.3
19.0
21.4

48.6
48.6
52.9

82.9
62.9
68.6

59

82

55

66.2
41.9
88.2

23.9
16.4
26.9

73.1
65.4
46.2

92.3
69.2
76.9

October
November . . .
December . . .

16.7
54.8
50.0

16.7
16.7
9.5

65.7
55.7
34.3

82.9
74.3
68.6

59

r65

60

89.0

7.5
13.4

35.8
53.7
35.8

46.2
69.2
69.2

100.0
84.6
76.9

65.7
57.1
57.1

82.9
85.7
71.4

47

r59

59

85.8
50.7
91.0

28.8
10.6
6.1

84.6
69.2
53.8

69.2
76.9
61.5

57.1
65.7
47.1

74.3
68.6
60.0

59

r59

58

9.7
27.3
39.4

6.1
10.6
4.6

61.5
38.5
53.8

61.5
46.2
46.2

r47

58

4.5
7.6
1.5

38.5
46.2
42.3

46.2
23.1
23.1

40

66.2
70.8

4.6
3.1
10.8
23.1
38.5
70.8

19.2
23.1
7.7

23.1
23.1
23.1

62.0
98.5
100.0

53.8
42.3
38.5

11.5
15.4
15.4

1974
January
February
March

50.0
42.9

April
May
June

7.1
92.9
57.1

28.6
11.9
7.1
7.1
0.0
19.0

July
August
September..,

14-3
50.0
35.7

9.5
0.0
47.6

60.0
45.7
40.0

45.7
14.3
14.3

r53

October
November . . .
December . . .

40.5
11.9
28.6

0.0
4.8
9.5

45.7
18.6
17.1

11.4
5.7
18.6

r35

16.7
16.7
45.2

0.0
rl9.0
P21.4

48.6
51.4
34-3

17.1
25.7
P25.7

9.2

1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September...

64.3
52.4
r88.1
p66.7

77.1

P12

48

95.4
93.8
86.2

r54.3

69.2
61.0
70.8

46.2
38.5
61.5

P71.4

64.6

4 57.7

42.9

P53

4

38.5

69.2

October
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on 2d
month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components
for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® .
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
"""This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written
permission from The Conference Board.
Based on 71 components in January 1973, on 69 components through April 1973, on 68
components through October 1973, on 67 components through April 1974, on 66 components through September 1974, and on 65 components
thereafter. Component data are not shown in table E4 bat are available from the source agency.
See "New Features and Changes
for This Issue," page iii. 4Average for August 5, 12, and 19.

BCII

AUGUST 1975



97

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

• H D I F F U S I O N INDEXES-Con.
Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month

D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
1-month
span

9-month
span

Roughly Coincident Indicators

D41. Number of employees
on nonagriculural payrolls
(30 industries)

D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)

D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®

D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)

1-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

9-month
span

1973

67.0
7^.5
36.2

68.1
66.0
74.5

70.0
86.7
83.3

86.7
81.7
85.0

79.2
91.7
62.5

83.3
79.2
83.3

95.5
97.7
95.5

100.0
95.5
95.5

87.0
76.1
65.2

100.0
97.8
95.7

53.2
36.2
57.4

38.3
68.1
57.4

70.0
65.0
81.7

83.3
78.3
68.3

50.0
77.1
54.2

79.2
77.1
79.2

95.5
90.9
84.1

95.5
95.5
95.5

30.4
69.6
56.5

100.0
100.0
87.0

July
August
September

63.8
46.8
44.7

57.4
8.5
8.5

68.3
70.0
51.7

80.0
86.7
85.0

70.8
70.8
62.5

79.2
70.8
54.2

75.0
91.0
77.3

90.9
95.5
95.5

73.9
34.8
73.9

69.6
47.8
91.3

October
November
December

46.8
72.3

86.7
75.0
60.0

88.3
71.7
68.3

45.8
62.5
45.8

45.8
35.4
45.8

79.5
86.4
90.9

95.5
90.9
90.9

65.2

2.1

38.3
29.8
23.4

56.5
43.5

87.0
95.7
87.0

January
February
March

53.2
83.0
40.4

19.1

14.9
34.0

48.3
48.3
51.7

56.7
53.3
50.0

35.4
37.5

39.6
33.3
52.1

90.9
95.5
88.6

95.5
95.5
95.5

78.3
60.9
78.3

91.3
78.3
95.7

April
May
June

51.1
56.4

12.8
55.3
44.7

48.3
56.7
51.7

45.0
43.3
46.7

47.9
70.8
50.0

54.2

a.7

41.7

91.0
84.1
81.8

95.5
90.9
90.9

47.8
65.2
34.8

91.3
87.0
82.6

75.5
48.9
28.7

0.0
6.4

51.7
56.7
48.3

45.0
36.7
20.0

39.6
37.5
52.1

31.3
12.5
10.4

81.8
77.3
68.2

77.3
72.7
72.7

95.7
52.2
60.9

52.2
45.7
65.2

46.8
8.5
53.2

2.1
4.3

2.1

41.7
13.3
15.0

20.0
16.7
13-3

33.3
20.8
8.3

12.5
12.5
8.3

72.7
68.2
65.9

72.7
68.2
68.2

43.5
21.7
52.2

82.6
60.9
60.9

6.4

13.3

12.8
36.2

13.3
20.0

10.0
13.3
rlO.O

16.7
27.1
20.8

12.5
rl0.4
29.2

63.6
63.6
59.1

68.2
72.7
72.7

73.9
67.4
34.8

r73.9
r78.3
p80.4

P36.7

r58.3
47.9
r68.8

P37.5

70.5
63.6
68.2

77.3

67.4
r89.1
r69.6

January
February
March
April
May
June

...

1974

34.0

July
August
September

. . .

October
November
December

8.5

64.6

1975
January
February
Marcri

55.3
29.8
55-3

April
May
June

44.7
66.0
46.8

35.0
63.3
r33.3

July
August
September

68.1

p6l.7

October
November
December

p70.8

75.0

P73.9

. .

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d
month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires
no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® .
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
1
Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4-.

98




AUGUST 1975

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change
1975

1974
Diffusion index components
March

February

January

December

May

April

Juner

JulyP

D1. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(Average weekly hours)

All manufacturing industries

39.4

39.2

38.8

Percent rising of 21 components

(29)

(17)

(17)

o

38.8

39.1

39.0

(45)

(64)

(52)

39.1

39.5
(67)

Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

- a.s
-

38.1
37.3

Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries

-

41.0

Fabricated metal products..
Machinery, except electrical

+
-

Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries.

+

42.1

-

37.9

-

36.4

+
-

41.2
37.8
36.5

+
+
+

41.3
38.8
37.2

- r41.1
+ 38.9
+ 37.5

41.6
39.2
37.7

a.3
39.5
37.5

-

39.6

-

39.9

+
-

40.3
39.6

-

40.2
r39.3

40.3
39.6

40.7
39.9

+

39.7
40.9

-

r39.4
r40.4

39.5
40.3

39.6
40.4

a.2
38.6
36.3
40.2
40.2

o
+

-

40.9

-

40.5

40.6
42.1

-

40.4
41.8

-

39.7

-

41.2

+
-

39.8
40.8

+
o

39.5
39.5

o

39.4
39.5

-

39.0
39.1

+
-

39.2
39.0

39.4
40.4

-

39.1
r39.5

39.4
39.7

39.6
40.5

+

39.8
38.1

o

39.5
38.1

-

38.9

-

37.6

39.0
37.7

39.1
38.2

+ r39.2
o r38.2

39.4
38.6

39.4
38.2

Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures

o
+

40.0
37.7

-

39.9
37.3

39.9
37.6

40.3
39.1

39.9
38.4

o
-

39.9
36.9

40.0
39.4

39.9
36.3

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products . .

-

36.6
34.2

-

36.0
34.0

+
-

36.1
33.6

36.8
33.7

37.8
34.3

38.9
34.4

39.1
35.1

39.8
35.5

Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing . .

-

a.2
37.3

+

41.1
37.5

-

40.5
37.2

40.4
36.9

a.7
36.7

41.0
42.3

40.5
41.9

40.4
41.8

-

40.9

40.8
41.0

40.9
40.8

-

39.5
36.1

40.6
42.0
39.5
35.7

-

Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c. . . .
Leather and leather products

o
-

-

38.7

-

35.3

38.6
35.1

+ 40.9
- 36.7
+ r40.6
+ r41.4
+ 39.5
+ r36.6

36.7

+

40.4
36.8
40.3

a.6

Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and coal products .,

o
-

39.6
37.7

39.9
38.1

Nondurable goods industries:

39.1
36.5

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS'NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 1
(Millions of dollars)

2

37,842

36,062

+ 37,023

35,492

+ 38,751

+ 39,185

(17)

(49)

(51)

(34)

(77)

(43)

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products.

6,297
4,387

- 5,071
+ 4,720

+ 5,378
+ 4,784

4,961
4,449

+ 5,395
+ 4,813

5,863
4,844

+
-

5,887 +
4,700 +

6,148
5,058

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery

7,426
4,439

- 6,837
+ 4,919

- 6,805
+ 4,931

6,759
4,662

6,946
5,316

-

6,984
5,133

7,133
5,146

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

8,050
7,243

- 7,253
+ 7,262

+ 8,030
- 7,095

7,705
6,956

+ 8,506
+ 7,775

7,117
5,183
8,526
7,652

+
+

8,817
7,832

9,874
8,085

All durable goods industries
Percent rising of 35 components

+
+
-

+ 39,353 + 41,444
(71)
(54)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
2

KCII

AUGUST 1975



99

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1974

1975

Diffusion index components
December

January

February

March

May

April

July

June

August

D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2

Industrial materials price index (1967=100)

-

183.4 -

182.3 + 186.4 -

184.2 -

173.2 -

180.1

181.1

(54)

(42)

(38)

(46)

(38)

0.431
0.950
0.098
0.216
86.762
95.638
3.508
7.734
0.391
0.862
0.235
0.257

- 0.397
0.875
+ 0.099
0.218
- 75.758
83.508
+ 3.700
8.157
+ 0.394
0.869
+ 0.236
0.258

+ 0.399
0.880
- 0.091
0.201
o 75.744
83.493
+ 3.723
8.208
- 0.391
0.862
+ 0.239
0.261

+ 0.400
0.882
- 0.086
0.190
- 72.206
79.593
- 3.514
7.747
- 0.379
0.836
- 0.227
0.248

- 0.399
0.880
- 0.081
0.179
+ 84.830
93.508
- 3.382
7.456
- 0.376
0.829
- 0.210
0.230

- 0.384
0.847
- 0.073
0.161
- 76.961
84.834
- 3.298
7.271
+ 0.378
0.833
- 0.198
0.217

- 0.366 +
0.807
- 0.050 +
0.110
- 70.675 77.905
+ 3.391 7.476
+ 0.383 +
0.844
+ 0.200 0.219

0.413
0.910
0.576
0.630
2.088
4.603
0.186
0.410
41.438
91.354
0.307
0.677
0.117
0.258

- 0.388
0.855
+ 0.579
0.633
- 1.967
4.336
- 0.175
0.386
+ 42.181
92.992
- 0.288
0.635
+ 0.123
0.271

+ 0.401
0.884
- 0.577
0.631
- 1.802
3.973
- 0.166
0.366
- 42.097
92.807
+ 0.294
0.648
- 0.119
0.262

+ 0.406
0.895
+ 0.583
0.638
+ 1.860
4.101
+ 0.201
0.443
- 41.782
92.113
- 0.287
0.633
- 0.108
0.238

+

+ 0.431
0.950
- 0.581
0.635
+ 2.143
4.724
+ 0.255
0.562
- 39.068
86.129
- 0.275
0.606
+ 0.123
0.271

+ 0.438
0.966
+ 0.592
0.647
- 2.044
4.506
+ 0.259
0.571
- 30.461
67.154
+ 0.289
0.637
+ 0.127
0.280

171.5

178.2

(58)

(69)

(Dollars)

(8)

Percent rising of 13 components ,
Copper scrap
Lead scrap
Steel scrap
Tin
Zinc
Burlap

Cotton, 12-market average
Print cloth, average
Wool tops
Hides
Rosin
Rubber
Tallow

(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(U.S. ton).
(metric ton).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(yard).
(meter).

-

(pound).
(kilogram).
(yard).
(meter).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(100 pounds).
(100 kilograms).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).

-

-

+
-

+
+
+
+

0.424
0.935
0.590
0.645
1.849
4.076
0.227
0.500
40.972
90.327
0.291
0.642
0.116
0.256

(62)

0.418
0.922
0.051
0.112
58.448
64.427
3.336
7.355
0.387
0.853
0.183
0.200

+ 0.446
0.983
- 0.581
0.635
+ 2.119
4.672
+ 0.269
0.593
- 29.849
65.805
+ 0.315
0.694
0 0.127
0.280

0.436
0.961
0.065
0.143
68.269

75.253
3.355
7.396
0.390
0.860
0.178
0.195

O.464
1.023
0.588
0.643
2.301
5.073
0.256
0.564
28.614
63.082
0.302
0.666
0.141
0.311

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls

Percent rising of 30 components

- 77,690 - 77,227 - 76,708 - 76,368 0 76,349 + r76,428 - r76,26^ + 76,352
(62)
(20)
(33)
(63)
(35)
(13)
(13)
(15)

Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products ..
Miscellaneous manufacturing

+

Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products.
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c..
Leather and leather products

- 1,150 +
63 +
797
- 1,059 -

-

86
481
390
516
1,035
1,059
1,467
1,242
1,176
318
316

516
-

656
602
123

493
231

85
452
360
371
354
486
478
499
1,011
940
969
992
976
1,011
1,440 - 1,404 - 1,380
1,208 - 1,152 - 1,135
1,126 - 1,060 + 1,100
298
305
314
301
310
305
1,132 - 1,125 0 1,125
66
65
63
760
740
737
1,032 - 1,009
995
489
478
504
639
645 654
580 568
589
119
117
114 +
477
431
446
212
216
223
85 0

463

-

85 0

0

449 +

+

-

85
450
357
477
914
975
1,354
1,118
1,099
297
300

+ 1,130
62
+
756
+ 1,012

474
-

635

+
+

118
436
214

563

0
+.
+
+
+
+

85
r463
361
478
r896
970
rl,325
1,111
rl,125
r293
r302

+
+
0
+

+ rl,139 0
62
+
r778 +
+ rl,027 +
+
r476 - r632 +
567 +
120 +
+
r442 +
+
218 +

83
r466
359
r476
r881
r968
rl,302
rl,104
rl,134
r293
r303

0
+

83
475
358
470
847

955

- 1,264
+ 1,105
+ 1,139
291
+
306
rl,134 + 1,145
r6l +
64
789
r784 +
rl,038 + 1,058
480
r475 +
r628
624
r566
565
123
rl22 +
449
r447 +
r221
213

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1

Average for August 5, 12, and 19.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The industrial materials price index is not
seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
2

100




AUGUST 1975

IIUI

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1974

1975

Diffusion index components
December

February

January

March

June r

May 1

April

JulyP

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS-Con. 1
(Thousands of employees)
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service
Federal Government
State and local government

D47.

117.4

All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components2

.

Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals . . .
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures...
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products..
Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals .
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

-

706
3,486
4,512
4,211
12,588
4,157
13,754
2,732
12,076

702
3,596
4,561
4,222
12,610
4,164
13,771
2,733
12,052

700
3,789
4,607
4,242
12,621
4,173
13,747
2,733
11,897

662
3,798
4,668
4., 267
12,645
4,182
13,734
2,738
11,850

703
3,475
4,511
4,213

710
3,472
4,495
4,208

707
3,404
4,474
4,183

12,581
4,163
13,754
2,729
12,130

12,612
4,161
13,759
2,730
12,163

12,671
4,154
13,712
2,730
12,158

710
3,360
4,470
4,194
12,725
4,161
13,779
2,740
12,181

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1967=100)

113.7

-

111.2

-

110.0

(8)

(17)

(27)

(21)

108.6
124.1

107.2
118.2

102.1
113.7

98.1
112.9

132! 5
116.3
83.6
139.5

126.7
111.5
78.9
139.1

116! 9
101.3

-

109.9

-

(58)

109.8

+

110.3 +

110.8

(48)

(69)

(71)

110.9

87.7
111.1

87.2
110.4

123! 6
106.6
77.1
134.2

95.0
- rll2.4 119! 3 - rll6.9 104.0 104.3 81.0 + r84.7 +
131.1 130.6 +

113!7
103.8
87.6
129.7

111.9
103.9

Il6! 2
104.0
90.4

130.7

115! 3
99.9

1O7.*8
99.6

10^2 + rlO5.4 99.8 + rlO4.1 +

104.2
108.0

105.1
108.2

120.4
135.7

110#.6
128.9

lio!6
128.0

106! 7
129.7

128.5

+
+

109.6
129.0

109.6
129.7

130.7
106.6
(NA)
(NA)
120.7
(NA)
(NA)

-

102.9
98.0
69.7

95.6
94.0
66.1

93.3
92.6
66.7

96.8
86.4
63.5

+ rl00.4
+ r88.2
+
68.0

103.7
89.6
69.8

106.2
(NA)
72.4

-

116.1
109.8

114.3
104.1

109! 5
104.7

104^5
104.0

+ rlO5.8
100.2

1O5.#8
102.6

108.2
103.2

-

H3!l
125.8
148.9

139 !6

134". 6
123.7
132.0

120.1
126.8

- rl32.8
+ rl20.2
+ rl33.5

135^6

126.8
135.4

118.7
132.7

+

125.7
96.2

121.2
104.7

122.3
108.4

121 .'3
102.6

1-122.9
115.9

123 .#4
103.8

136.7
121.9
135.0
121.7
123.2
(NA)

+
-

85.3 +
103.6 -

111.3
102.9

117.5
106.0

117.4
106.1

112.2
rlO6.6

119.1
105.3

120.5 +
105.4 -

-

134!7 106.4 +

133.'8
109.0

131 #.l
106.1

105.1

125^8
104.7

114! 8
100.4

110'.2
95.0

90.9

97.0

93.7

+

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
106.4
(NA)
103.0
136.5
138.5
123.5
(NA)
122.7
124.2
(NA)

+

120.7
104.9
105.8
(NA)
(NA)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent r i s i n g .

2

AUGUST 1975



101

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1975

1974
Diffusion index components
January

December

March

February

April

July

June

May

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)

+

All retail sales
2

Percent rising of 23 components .
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise)
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores.
Shoe stores
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores . .
Lumber yards, building materials dealers.
Hardware stores
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores

+
-

+

-

44,821

45,955

(52)

(74)

(67)

9,610
3,721
4, 608
415

9,945
3,784
4,497
485

9,925
3,828
4,743
489

684
444
800
303

720
473
844
323

746
518
828
344

1,193
617
1,412

1,237
625
1,424
471

1,235
633
1,415
477

6,668
690
3,399
1,461
886

6,971
725
3,465
1,436
871

7,580
745
3,465

+

46,819

1,U9
882

45,926

+ 46,712

r48,124

+ r48,758

(35)

(67)

(89)

(70)

(74)

10,058
3,821
4,852
456

9,846
3,898
4,825
476

rl0,105

10,255
3,985
5,076
496

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

739
506
820
310

746
506
819
337

r788
r5O6
r854
r356

781
525
853
343

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

+
-

1,199
660
1,355
464

1,2U
686
1,415
468

rl,2l6
r7l6
rl,517
r489

1,225
737
1,512
472

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

-

6,598
738
3,497
1,488
903

7,063
737
3,532
1,455
884

r7,459
r755
r3,565
rl,499
r919

7,872
789
3,591
1,534
922

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

-

+
+

+
+
+

r3,935
r5,094
r482

+
+
+

+

+

49,965

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES3

(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries
Percent rising of 22 components
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables
Nonmetallic minerals products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment.
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products. .
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products.

166.9
(66)

168.2
(64)

168.0
(64)

167.8
(59)

168.7
(70)

169.5
(64)

170.1
(68)

171.4

165.4
137.7
164.3
196.7
181.8
182.9
176.7
170.9
153.1
136.5
140.7
142.4

164.7
138.8
168.5
199.4
178.8
185.4
178.3
172.6
158.1
138.1
140.2
145.5

169.3
139.1
170.3
200.5
176.1
189.4
178.7
173.9
158.6
138.7
141.5
146.4

169.6
138.5
170.8
200.6
173.9
189.9
180.0
174.8
158.5
139.1
143.0
146.8

174.9
138.5
173.0
201.1
172.2
188.4
180.1
176.1
160.3
139.5
143.0
147.3

183.0
138.6
173.1
200.6
171.1
188.8
179.4
177.6
161.4
140.1
142.9
147.5

181.0
139.0
173.3
199.4
169.1
188.6
181.7
178.2
161.5
140.4
143.1
147.5

179.6
139.2
17'4.7
197.3

188.2
165.7
107.3
132.3
133.7
167.2
174.0
238.5
149.4
143.2

186.4
162.0
103.8
130.7
133.8
169.8
176.0
242.3
149.6

182.6
158.0
103.8
129.3
133.6
169.8
178.1
240.7
150.0
141.7

177.3
156.0
102.0
121.7
133.3
170.0
181.8
242.3
149.7
143.2

179.4
158.1
103.5
121.7
133.0
169.7
182.4
243.6
149.4
147.5

179.0
162.6
107.0
123.0
132.2
169.8
182.1
246.1
148.9
147.7

+

(75)

167.7
188.5
182.2
179.6
161.9
140.8
143.1
147.7

179.
164.
107.
124.
132,
169.
181.
252.
148.
148.

+
+
+
+
+

184.6
167.4
107.8
127.3
132.4
170.0
181.4
258.8
150.1
149.3

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.

2
3

102




AUGUST 1975

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

CONSUMER PRICES
135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®

136. France,
index of
consumer
prices®

138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices®

137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices®

47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production

123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production

122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production

126. France,
index of
industrial
production

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

127
128
130

122
123
124

139
142
142

120
123
124

150
151
146

145
148
148

131
133
134

124
125
126

142
142
144

121
121
122

144
153
151

141
142
143

150
151
155

135
136
137

127
126
127

143
139
142

123
123
123

153
153
150

132
133
134

145
146
147

154
156
160

138
139
141

127
128
126

144
146
146

125
123
119

153
154
148

161
163
165

135
137
137

150
152
153

167
173
174

144
147
149

125
125
125

148
149
150

113
115
119

157
157
153

140
143
144

170
173
175

138
139
139

156
158
159

179
179
181

151
154
157

125
126
126

147
147

121
121
122

154
rl58
156

148
150
152

146
147
148

176
176
177

139
140
HO

161
163
165

4
185
189

160
163
168

126
125
126

146
146
145

123
123
121

161
161
152

153
154
155

149
151
152

182
185
188

141
142
142

167
168
169

193
194
195

171
174
176

125
122
117

145
143
142

121
121
116

152
146
142

January
February
March

156
157
158

153
154
155

192
196
200

144
144
145

171
173
174

196
196
198

178
181
181

114
111
110

139
140
139

119
119
116

144
143
139

April
May
June

159
159
161

156
157
159

207
216
220

146
147
148

176
177
178

203
205
205

183
185
186

110
110
110

139
138
P138

115
pH4
(NA)

139
pl37
(NA)

July
August
September...

162

162

(NA)

148

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

pill

(NA)

781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices®

133. Canada, 132. United
Kingdom,
index of
index of
consumer
consumer
prices©
prices@

1967=100)

(1967=100)

January
February
March

128
129
130

125
126
126

144
144
145

126
127
128

136
136
137

138
140
143

April
May
June

131
132
132

128
129
130

148
149
150

129
129
130

138
139
140

July
August
September...

133
135
136

131
133
133

151
151
152

130
130
131

October
November . . .
December . . .

137
138
138

134
135
136

155
157
158

January
February
March

140
142
143

137
138
139

April
May
June

144
146
147

July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .

Year
and
month

(1967=100)

1973

1974

1975

October
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p ' \ preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

BUI

AUGUST 1975




103

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

STOCK PRICES

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Con.

Year
and
month

125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production

128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production

121.OECD, 1 127. Italy,
index of
European
industrial
countries,
production
index of
industrial
production

19. United
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks©

143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices©

142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices®

146. France,
index of
stock
prices©

145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices©

148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®

147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

January
February
March

150
156
151

186
186
193

142
144
142

124
123
123

129
124
122

146
145
143

182
168
I64

174
173
185

139
136
142

387
364
363

83
84
93

April
May
June

153
152
154

190
196
197

142
144
145

132
134
138

120
117
114

142
135
135

168
167
171

191
196
190

142
130
128

344
339
338

97
109
125

July
August
September...

147
154
156

197
200
201

144
146
147

HI
131
139

115
113
115

141
144
146

161
156
154

183
179
180

120
119
116

355
351
333

118
105
107

October
November . . .
December . . .

155
156
156

205
207
203

148
148
146

141
139
138

119
111
103

153
148
134

159
151
126

183
166
166

118
112
106

325
313
285

109
108
97

January
February
March

154
153
152

202
202
199

147
147
147

148
143
144

104
102
106

139
141
146

126
124
116

173
167
153

110
110
108

293
308
304

106
108
112

April
May
June

152
152
153

196
200
193

148
140
150

148
145
147

101
98
98

136
123
122

112
112
103

145
134
134

112
112
108

305
303
306

116
106
97

July
August
September...

150
149
151

194
188
188

148
rl47
147

144
131
145

90
83
74

118
113
101

94
82
74

135
125
106

103
104
99

295
270
261

90
88
76

October
November . . ,
December . . ,

rl49
rl48
rl42

185
182
173

145
rl42
137

138
130
124

76
78
73

101
97
93

71
65
58

114
113
117

96
97
101

239
245
255

74
79
72

140
rl42
144

166
165
167

137
rl38
137

129
131
126

79
87
91

103
112
109

69
99
109

177
134
144

105
112
120

250
271
284

r71
r79
82

rl36
pl43
(NA)

169
pl71
(NA)

rl35
P136
(NA)

128.
pl20
(NA)

92
98
101

112
115
116

115
126
127

155
142
139

124
119
114

290
298
297

78
77
rp73

101
P93

pH9
pll6

119
pH3

rpl43
P142

117
P119

293
p282

rp67

1973

1974

1975
Janua/y
February
March

,

April
May
June
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except thoseseries that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.

•'•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

104




AUGUST 1975

ItCII

APPENDIXES
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix provides historical data (back t o 1945 if available) for
selected BCD series. Data are shown for series which (a) have recently
been added to the report, (b) have recently been revised, or (c) have not
been shown here for a long time. By keeping these tables, the user can
acquire a complete set of historical data. Each time a series is included
in this appendix, it is footnoted to indicate the extent of any revisions
since it was last shown. See the "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding
Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published for

each series. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables each
month and may be used to update these historical tables.
Series shown here are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated
by ® , which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Official source
agency annual figures are shown if available. Such figures are often
derived from data with more digits or from data which have not been
seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual
figures computed from the monthly or quarterly data shown.

Monthly

Quarterly

Year

Annual
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

813. COMPOSITE. INDEX OF MARGINAL EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENTS
(1967=100)

III Q

II Q

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PtRIOD

•••
•••
1948...
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..

103.8
91.1
93.0
107.3
101.9
107.1
89.7

102.7
89.8
93.4
107.9
102.0
107.1
89.1

101.4
87.4
95.3
107.4
101.4
107.0
89.3

100.9
86.2
97.0
106.7
100.6
106.5
88.3

101.?
cJft.l
99,6
104.?
100.3
104.7
tt9,4

101.7
67.7
100.7
102.5
98.5
103.5
90.0

100.8
87.4
105.2
99.4
96.6
101.3
90.4

99.5
89.2
107.0
97.5
102.0
96.7
90.5

100.0
P8.8
107.0
97.4
106.7
96,0
90,4

99.0
63.7
105.6
99.1
108.5
93.2
92.3

97.fr
89. f
104.7
100.C
107.c
92.:
94.<S

94.2
92.3
104.7
101.0
107.4
90.9
95.8

102.6
89.4
93.9
107.5
101.8
107.1
89.4

101.3
86.7
99.1
104.5
99.8
104.8
89.2

1955..
1956..

97.0
100.0

98.6
98.1

99.6
9b.4

100.5
98.7

100.?.
97.?

99.7
96.5

V6.6
96.9

100.1
97.6

100,7
96.0

101.5
99.6

102.1
9 8 . <,

101.3
96.3

98,4
98.8

195a!!
195V..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..

98.3
34.3
93.6
96.0
65.9
94.6
93.5
94,8

83!4
95.6
94.5
86.2
94.4
94.3
95.5

82.7
97.2
92.2
88.2
95.5
94.0
96.5

83.0
97.7
91.3
89.5
95.8
95.0
97.2

86.5
96.9
90.6
90.6
94.3
95.4
97.6

67.6
95.5
89.9
91.4
94.4
95.4
97.8

92.3
69.1
94,6
69.4
91.6
93.7
94.8
96.1

90.8
90.2
93.9
«8.7
91.6
94.0
95.3
97.9

88.8
90.9
91.2
87.6
93.9
93.9
95.7
97.4

87 . C
91.~
92.3
86.3
94.6
93.4
94. c
98. t

93!o
95.8
85.7
94.1
93.6
95.1
99.0

97.8
83.5
95.5
94.2
86.8
94.8
93.9
95.6

1965..
1966..
1967..
196b..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..

100.1
104.6
101.3
101.9
103.9
98.6
92.7
97.4
102.2

100.7
105.7
99.6
102.3
103.6
96.6
93.1
97.9
102.5

101.2
107.3
97.4
102.6
104.2
94.6
93.6
98.6
103.2

100.7
106.P
97.7
103.0
104.9
93.0
93.5
98.9
103.3

101.4
105.6
99.1
103.9
103.9
93.4
V4.0
97.1
102.3

100.6
104.3
99.B
103.3
103.3
94.1
93.4
9t,6
101.7

100.1
105.5
100.6
102.8
102.1
92.9
92.6
100.3
102.2

101.6
10b.5
101.0
103.6
102.7
91.5
92.9
100.5
102.8

102.6
104.9
101.4
103.9
101.6
89.8
93.3
101.5
102.6

103."
103. t
1 0 1 . fr
104.1
101.p
90,'
95.3
101.2
100.fr

103.8
102.7
101.4
104.1
100.2
92.2
95.7
100.4
97,7

100.7
105.9
99.4
102.3
104.C
96.7
93.1
96.0
102.6

64.?
97.7
91.5
90, -K
9^.1
9M.7
V7.1
100.9
106.9
98.9
10?. 8
103.9
92.5
93.9
99.3
103.?

100.1
P.8.3
106.7
98.1
101.3
98.7
90.4

97.0
90.0
105.1
100.0
107.9
92.1
94.3

lOo!2
6d.o
101,2
102,5
102.6
100.7
90.b

100.3
97.5

99,<j
97.b

101.6
96.*

9b.1
84.6
97.4
91.2
90.1
95.1
95.0
97.3

92.f
89.0
94.7
89.3
91,7
94,0
95.2
97.9

6 1.3
91.9
93.1
86.5
94.3
93.6
95.2
98.3

100.0
96.2
93,2
87.2
95.2
90.3
90.7
94.4
94.6
97.3

101.0
106.4
9P.6
103.2
104.2
93.0
93.8
98.4
102.9

100.6
10b.1
100.b
1C3.2
102.7
92.8
93.0
99.6
102.2

103.4
103.7
101.5
104.0
101.1
90.9
94.8
101.0
100.4

101.4
105.3
100.0
103.2
103.0
93.3
93.7
99,3
102,0

1974. •
1975..
814, COMPOSITE INDtX OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT COMMITMENTS
(1967=100)

AVERAGE FOP PtKIuO
!" *

65.3
72.5
66.9
H5.1
67.2
85.7

84.2
74.4
91.0
64.0
87.2
63.4

82.1
76.7
87.4
84.6
90.2
81.7

62.3
75.3
86.5
b4.8
87.8
62.6

60.1
76.2
85.84.9
87.1
81.3

79.8
7b.4
68.4
64.9
66.5
81.3

86.9
88.9
81.?

61.1

80.6

81 . 5

P3,V

91.3
90.7
86.1
dl.t
92.9
89.0
86.4

91.3
90.?
bb.7
63.4
9?. 3
86.9
8f>.7

91.8
89.6
86.6
64.6
92.0
68.2
87.7

91.8
89.0
8b.3
85.9
91.5
8b.1
87.5

91.6
90.4
«5.9
*7.3
89,9
87.8
66.5

92.3
P7.V
P4.9
88,0
90.6
87.7
87.7

91.5
86.3
64.2
68.8
90.2
86.5
66.6

91.3
89.1
84.1
90.^
89. H
8b. 6
89. F

91.5
86.6
82.6
68.9
91.1
65.8
89.6

91.3
90.6
87.8
PI.5
92.1
89.6
85.2

92!5
94.9

92!?
95.4

93.5
96.6

92!5
96.1

93!o
96.3

93!2
95.7

94.1
97.1

94.5
96.9

94.2
96.S

94.7
97.2

91.9
95.1

91.5
90.2
86.5
83.2
92.4
86.7
86.9
fcW . b
9?.7
96.0

91.9
89.1
85.4
67.1
90.7
67.9
87.9
VO . 2
93.4
96.4

97.9
102.3
96,4
105.4
110.8
105.1
109.1
116.1
122.2

97.3
101.0
97.1
103.3
U1.7
106.1
109.2
117.3
120. c

97.5
100.0
9K.*
103.6
110.1
10b.9
110.5
117.3
120.0

98.0
99.0
100. i:
104.5
110.1
105.4
111.0
118.2
122.4

98.7
9P. 6
100.5
105.7
109.8
105.5
111.9
117.6
121.1

«6.4
97.1
102.4
107.4
109.6
105.1
112.9
118.5
120.5

98.6
97.1
101.8
106.1
109.7
105.0
HI.9
120.b
118.9

99.1
96.1
102.4
111.1
109.3
105.2
113.3
121.3
116.9

99.6
94.5
103. C
109.9
106.r
105.4
111.5
120. P
119.2

100.7
94.8
105.0
110.6
107.8
107.9
114.8
121.8
116.1

97.7
101.8
96.2
104.1
111.6
106.2
107.6
115.3
121.7

37.6
76.4
79.6
Vl.S
64.9
89.!)

86.6
75.4
80.6
89.2
86.1
89,8

81,0

81,0

1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..

89.7
91.1
87.6
62.0
90.5
90.5
64.7

91.8
90.1
38.0
80.6
92.0
90.0
85.3

92.3
90.6
87.8
81.8
93.6
88.3
85.7

9K3
95.2

92!o
95.3

98.0
101.7
96.0
102.fi

97.3
101.4
96.1
104.0
112.3
107.2
107.1
114.7
121.6

m

fc7.0
73.1
65.4
65.6
68.1
85.3

86.1
73.0
84.Q
88,3
85.1
»7.7

1943...
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953.. .
1954. .

86,1
74.2
81.8
88.8
87.2
88,4

87.9
73.4
83.1
8<S. 8

86.8
75.3
80.7
89.b
86.1
89.2

67.0
73.2
64.5
86.9
86.6
87.3
Q

Q

1963!!
1964..

•

1965..
1966..
1967..
1966. .
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..

in.a

106.3
107.3
115.2
121.2

t;

.

Q

M

97.6
100.0
96.8
103.8
110.6

83.9
74.5
89.1
84.6
88.2
83.6
0

O

z

»

1

1

98.6
97.6
101.6
107.1
109.d

60.7
77.6
86.9
64.9
67.9
61.7
0 £^

a

80.9
91.4
88.7
83.6
89.4
90.2
66.0
89.3
Vl«<?
94.5
97.0
O

4

O

99.H
95.1
103.*
110.5
108.4

105.6

IOD.2

106.2

110.2
117.6
121.4

112.2
119.0
l?0.2

114.2
121.3
116.1

*1

<
84!b
75.2
85.3
86.6
67.2
85.5
83,2

91.5
89.6
85.8
85.3
91.4
86.0
87.4
^0. i
93.1
96.1
96.4
96,6
100,0
10b,4
110.1
105.6
111.1
118.3
120.3

1974. .
1975.. •




(August 1975)

105

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly

Quarterly
Annual

Year
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

May

Apr.

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

II Q

III Q

IV Q

815. COMPOSITE INDEX OF INVENTORY INVESTS T AND PURCHASING
(1967=100)

AVEKAGE FOh PtftlOD

...

1946, . ,
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

108.2
1C2.9
97.9
124.4
107.7
102.4
93.1

106.0
100.1
97.7
121.3
104.6
100.1
93.0

104.7
97.1
98.3
120.9
104.4
100.0
93.0

105.?
92.5
98.7
120.4
103.4
9R.6
94.7

lv4.Q
92. C
101.T
11*.8
100.?
9b.1
95.0

107.4
90.7
102.6
116.1
102.5
98.0
95.3

106.8
91.1
106.1
111.4
100.6
97.2
95.6

105.8
94.0
113.7
109.3
99.6
96.6
95.6

lOt.8
96.2
U4.5
106.0
102.4
94.7
97.8

103.7
95.5
115.0
109.1
100.2
93.7
96.9

104.?
95.2
117.0
108.6
100.1
94.1
96.8

102.4
96.1
118.0
108.0
99.9
93.6
99.1

106.3
100.0
98.0
122.2
105.6
100.6
93.0

105.6
91.7
100.9
116.4
102.0
98.3
95.3

105.6
93.6
111.4
109.6
100.9
9b.2
96.4

103.4
95.6
116.7
108.6
100.1
93.9
98.9

10b!3
95.3
106,7
114.7
102.1
97.3
95.9

1955...
1956...
1957...
1953...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

101.G
105.1
103.1
94.0
C
9.7
100.9
97.0
102.4
98.7
99.2

101.6
104.7
101.9
93.8
101.7
102.1
97.2
101.6
98.9
99.7

102.2
104.2
100.4
94.1
102.0
100.3
98.3
100.6
98.7
100.6

101.4
105.8
99.5
92.9
103.5
99.7
100.0
99.2
93.2
101.6

101.6
lOtt.i
99.4
93.1
10?. 2
100.1
100.6
V9.6
90.7
10C.0

103.0
102.5
98.8
94.5
102.9
99.7
99.1
98.2
98.6
101.6

103.7
103.2
99.1
95.7
102.3
99.0
100.1
97.5
98.8
102.0

103.8
104.1
99.1
97.3
100.5
96.4
101.7
97.6
9d.4
102.3

104.1
103.7
98.1
97.9
100.4
99.1
101.7
97.6
96.6
104.6

104.7
102.9
95.6
99,4
100.7
97.3
101.1
98.3
9R.8
104.5

104,9
103.6
95.6
100.9
100.3
98.0
100.4
98.5
98.5
105.7

106.2
103.9
95.5
100.1
101.9
96.2
101.0
99.2
97.9
105.5

101.6
104.7
101.8
94.0
101.1
101.1
97.5
101.6
98,8
99.6

102.0
104.1
99.2
93.5
102.9
99.8
99.9
99.0
98.8
101.4

103.9
1C3.7
98.6
97.0
101.1
98.6
101.2
97.6
96,b
103.0

105.3
103.5
95.6
100.1
101.c
97.2
100.8
98.7
96.4
105.?

103.2
104.0
96,9
9b. 1
101.5
99,2
99.8
99,2
96,6
102.4

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

105.7
107.0
102.7
99.6
100.4
103.7
101.9
103.5
114.*

104.8
107.8
101.1
101.3
103.2
105.7
102.6
104.3
116.6

105.7
109.0
99.9
100.3
103.1
104.6
102.5
105.0
118.8

106.6
107.7
93.6
100.1
103.9
104.5
104.1
106.7
111.6

106.4

105.7
108.1
99.7
100.2
103.3
104.2
101.5
108.0
123.9

105.5
106.1
9ti.9
97.8
104.3
103.8
102.5
106.1
123.6

106.2
105.7
99.5
100.5
104.3
102.1
102.6
10*.4
126.9

105.4
104.9
96.5
96.3
105.7
101.9
102.0
HO.5
l?b,3

104.6
104.1
99.3
100.2
105,1
101.4
101.1
110.8
127.1

105.2
103.3
100.?
100.3
104.8
102.4
101.2
111.6
129.1

106.1
103.3
102.7
1C1.0
104.4
101.4
102.8
113.0
132.9

105.4
107.9
101.2
100.4
102.2
104.7
102.3
104.3
116.7

106.2
107.6
99.1
100.1
103.9
103.7
102.8
107.7
121.3

105.7
10b.2
99.0
98.9
104.0
102.6
102.4
106.7
125.3

105.3
103.6
100.7
100.5
104.P
101.7
101.7
111.8
129.7

105.7
106,4
100.0
100.0
103.9
103.2
102.3
106.1
123.2

107.6

9O.0
loO.l
1'JH.O
102.5
10?.,«
108.3
121.3

1974...
1975...
S!6.

COMPOSITE INDLX OF
(1967 = 1 0 0

PROFITABILITY
AVEKAGF. FOR PEKIOD
• ••
•. •

1948...
1949...
1950...
19*1...
1952...
1953...
1954...

56.3
56.5
55.7
69.6
61.6
62.0
58.2

57.5
54.9
56.3
68.7
61.3
62.u
59.1

57.7
54.9
57.5
67.2
60.7
61.9
59.4

59.1
53.8
59.1
65.4
60.1
61.1
60.C

t>0.3
5?.6
60,"=,
*>° . 1
t>V.2
r>\. 7

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964. . .

68.6
74.4
74.7
67.1
77.5
79.0
74.7
«2.4
«1.9
89.6

69.t
74.3
74.6
65.6
76.2
79.0
75.0
83.0
82.3
89.8

70.2
75.2
74.4
65.9
79.2
78.0
76.2
53.0
82.6
89,9

71.1
75.6
74.0
65.8
80.8
77.4
77.5
31.9
84.4
90.6

196b...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

95. H
103.4
98. a
101.3
101.9
V4.5
94.9
102.9
13 5.6

96.7
103.0
98.6
100.1
102.6
94.0
97.1
103.2
116.3

97.3
102.7
98.5
99.5
101.8
94.0
98.3
104.5
118.5

98.1
10?.8
99.6
101.5
101.4
92.9
99.7
104.9
111.1

ol.O

&1.0
32.4
62.6
62.7
b9.4
60.7
C1.4

60.3
53.1
64.0
61.7
60.4
61.5
62.5

59.6
54.2
67.0
<~<0. 9
60.6
61.0
62.9

59.1
54.5
66.2
61.7
60.5
59.9
63.6

59.2
54.5
68.0
62.1
60.5
58.5
64.2

57.5
54.9
68.3
61.6
61.6
56.8
64.7

57.1
55.1
b8.5
61.6
61.6
57.1
66.7

57.6
55.4
56.5
68.5
61.3
62.0
58. y

60.1
52.9
60.7
64.1
59.6
61.2
60.8

59.7
53.9
66.4
61.4
60.b
61.0
63.1

57.9
54.*
6fc.3
61.8
61.?
57.5
65.2

ba.*
54.3
63.0
63.V
60.6
60.4
62.0

71.?

72.4

8->.l
91.0

74.6
68.9
80.6
76.4
78.4
78.5
65.3
91.0

73.5
72.9
74.9
69.9
79.8
7b. 5
79.1
79.5
84.7
V2.1

73.6
73.9
74.0
71.2
77.9
75.3
fc0.2
60.1
P5.6
^'1.5

74.7
74.3
72.9
72.4
77.1
74.5
81.1
80.3
36.3
91.6

74.5
74.2
70.8
74.4
76.5
73.9
61.3
79.7
66.8
91.8

74.7
74.4
69.2
75.7
76.3
73.9
82.6
81.0
86.7
92.8

75.1
74.6
68.0
76.2
78.6
74.6
63.5
61.4
87.3
93.5

69.5
74.6
74.6
66.2
78.3
78.9
75.3
82.6
82.3
89.8

71.6
75.*
74.3
67.2
81.0
76.8
78.0
80.3
84.9
90.9

73.V
73.7
73.9
71.2
76.3
75.1
80.1
60.0
85.5
91.7

74.8
74.4
69.3
75.4
77.2
74.1
62.5
60.7
86.9
92.7

72.4
74.5
73.0
70.0
78.7
76.2
79.0
81.0
84.9
91.3

9H.7
102.4
99.6
101. h
101.7
90.8
100.3
105.^
319.0

9R.4
102.1
99.5
102.2
100.0
90.8
100.4
105.8
118. *

98.9
102.7
99.7
102.0
9o.5
90.2
100.3
106.7
Ufa.6

99.2
101.0
100.2
101.1
97.9
91.1
100.1
106.1
120.3

100.4
100.5
100.9
101.2
97,6
90.7
101,7
109.0
U9.2

101.1
99,7
101.6
101.7
97.7
90.9
101.3
109.9
119.6

101.8
99.5
101.2
102.4
97.4
90.3
100.5
112.1
119. n

102.6
99.2
101.6
101.7
96.0
93.4
101.B
114.5
119.5

96.6
103.0
96.6
100.3
102.1
94.2
96.6
103.5
116.6

96.4
102.4
99.6
1 0 1 . fc
101.0
91.b
100.1
105.3
118.6

99.b
101.4
100.3
101.4
96.1
90.7
100.7
107.9
119.b

101.8
99.5
101.5
101.9
97.0
91.*5
101.2
11?.?
119.4

99.1
101.6
100.0
101.4
99.6
92.0
99.7
107.2
lie.6

7 S . fj
74.?
67.0
61.6
76.5
7«i.O

7H.H

1974...
1975...

817. COMPOSITE INDEX OF SFNSITIVt FINANCIAL Fl_O*S
(1967=100)

AVEKAGE FOP PLKIOD

1945 ,
1946 .
1947
1948. . .
1949. . .
1950...

94.2
9o. a
96.2

92.7
Q
1.8
97.0

91.4
92.5
97.3

92.1
93.1
97.6

93.?
9?.7
9H.3

94. b
91.9
98.9

95.0
91.0
iOC.O

94.4
91.7
99.3

93.1
92.6
99,1

1952...
1953...
1954...

96.9
96.2
92.0

96.0
96.3
93.0

95.0
98.0
90.9

95.6
97.5
93.1

97.*

97.3
94.5
92.7

9b.9

T.7

98.5
94.3
95.1

°3.5

1955...
1956,
1957*..!
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

98.7
°6.6
94.8
92.1
97. o
95.2

98.0
97,6
95.2

96.1
97.5
95*0

97.9

vs.?

99.0

97.6

94.8

94.7

98.9
96.0
94.6
97.3
°9,0
100.3

97.9
96.1
95.2
97.7
99,2
100.5

99.3
96.1
94.7
98.3
100.3
100.7

*7.fc
10f>.K
101."

1965...
196b...
19d7.".'."
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

103.0
] 05 Q
97.0
101.d
107.2
K>0.7
99.9
105.9
124.2

103.2

102.6

104.3
97.7
104.0
106.9
101.1
106.5
111.**
120.4

• •.
• • .

96.4
99.2
T9.0

1 ,*\7
G
A ' ' -^ # ^

1 H (i A
A W *T j W

98.2
102.3
107.5
100.4
102.8
107.3
125.9

98.9
103.1
105.3
100.0
105.4
115.2
128.6

95.1
94.3

91.0
93.9
97.4

90.6
94.4
9c.2

90.5
95.1
97.0

92.6
91.7
97.0

93.3
92.6
98.3

92.7

97.7
93.0
93.3

99.5
92.4
95.8

97.9
92.4
96.7

97.5
9?.l
9fi.O

98.1
9b.0
96.6
92.0

96.1

97.6

95.6

°3.8

°2.4
95,7
96.1
9J.9

91.2
96.8
95.7
94.6
97.2
99.5
103.5
102.2

96.2
96 0
9o!8
96.7
94.8
93.9
97.5
100.1
101.4
100.2

96.8
95 7
9o!6

96.3
97 3
95. C
92.6
98.2
95.8
94.7
97.1
99.1
99.9

9H.8

97.?
ICO.7
102.4

95.0
9o.9
100.3
102.4

95.9
9b. 7
100.3
102.7

103.7

102.7

102.9

103.9

9f : .ft
105.9
107.0
lOo.u
10'.. l
111."
123.7

102.3
103.5
104.9
100.4
107.3
112.rJ
121.9

100.5
103.3
101.4
102. 3
10b. 1
111.2
122.5

102.0
1C2.6
101.2
101.4
110.0
131.3
117.4

97.3
lOO. 5
102.7
105.0
r
t1 1
10O.6
103.1
102,3

loo.o
109.5
113.4
108.7

104.6
96 7
100.3
106.3
102.8
97.0
105.0
117.5
106.2

103.7

lOkio
106.9
102.0
93.4
104.3
121.9
110.6

94.4
93.9
97.7
99.7
100.6
102.3
104.2
95 3
101.5
10^.4
96.4
97.8
103.3
122.4
104.7

1C3.0
98!o
102.4
106.7
100.4
102.7
109.5
126.2

96 . 1
97.?
95.8
93.6

94.2
91.8
99.5
96,7
97.3
93.7
92.9

90.7
94.5
96.9
98.3
98.3
92.3
96.8

98.4

97.8

96.?

97.7

94^
93.7
99.4
96.0
95.0
97.8
1.00.5
101.6

93^
9b.u
^7.6
96.4
95.7
97.0
100.4
1C2.6

9o]9
97.3
95.0
94.1
97.5
99.H
101.9
lul.fi

90 , 3
93.b
94.6
97.6
9b.b
95.7
°7.y
100.5
101.4

103.6

103.V

104.2

103.7

100,8
99. t
104.5

101.1
103.1
lOl.o
101.*!
109.2
115.0
116.2

101.3
107.4
101.1
96.1
104.2
120.6
107.H

99.8
100,0
104.3
103.9
99.6
105.7
114.3
118.1

106.3
100.6
106.6
112.0
12?.(

92.7
92.b
97.9
97.3
97.2
94.6
93.8

1975...

(August 1975)

106




C, Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly

Annual

Year
Jan.

Feb.

May

Apr.

Mar.
82r .

Nov.

32. *\
40.2
41.6
47.?
41.9

46. e
51.6
54.1
48.?
56.8
59.b
56.9
63.9
67.?
72.8

47.7
51.i
b3.< ?
45. *
57.6
59. ?
57.5
64. L
67.' 5
73.6

48.1
51.5
b4.0
49.0
57.9
58.8
58.4
64.1
68.2
73.8

4b. 7
49.9
54.2
49.6
57.5
5b.6
58.7
64.6
68.6
74.8

48.7
51.9
54.5
50.2
56.1
58.4
59.b
64.7
68.9
75.2

49.3
52.6
53.8
50.6
55.9
58,4
59.6
65.1
69.3
75.9

49.6
53.3
53.3
51.3
55.6
57.9
60.5
65.4
70.0
75.2

80.6
92.5
98.4
107.7
118.3
121.4
122.1
133.2
151.8

61.» •>
9 ? . 1*
98." 7
108.9
119.' ")
120.7
123.0
134.4
153. *

64.2
95.4
101.0
110.9
121.1
120.6
123.6
138.1
157.4

85.4
96.3
101.2
H2.3
121.5
120.3
125.0
139.6
I5d.b

86.1
97.C
100.8
113.1
122.2
118.1
125.C
142.0
161.C

46.2
50.9
54.6
48.9
55.5
58.9
56.7
63.5
66.7
71.9

78.6
89.4
97.8
104.7
115.5
121.0
120.0
126.6
147.6

78.8
90.6
97.7
105.8
116.7
121.1
120.7
130.2
149.4

80.3
92.0
98.1
106.8
117.7
121.0
121.2
131,6
150.9

6 ? . 4

94.2
99.3
109.4
119.7
120.6
1*4.6
135.2
154.5

83.6
94.7
99.9
110.3
120.2
120.7
123.5
135.6
156.4

II Q

III Q

IV Q

•!.

32.5
29.0
36.7
40.3
45.0
44.6

45.3
51.0
54.4
49.5
54.6
59.7
56.2
63.0
66.2
71.7

1 Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

32.6
28.1
36.6
40.0
44.4
45.8
42.5

31.0

Dec.

INDICATORS

32.7
29.5
36.2
39.8
43.7
46.1
42.0

44.7
50.H
53.6
50.7
53.9
59.3
56.4
62.1
65.9
71.0

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

Oct.

32.6
29.1
36.3
40.0
42.3
46.7
41.9

46.4
42.6

1955...
1956...
1957...
1956...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

Sept.

32.7
2b.6
34.9
39.8
40.7
47.2
42.0

41.?
46.8
4?.O

31.1
30.9
30.2
39.5
41.4

Aug.

32.4
29.2
33.3
40.2
41.4
47.1
42.1

31.3
30..1
31.7
40.1

31.5
31.4
30.0
39,0
40.8
45.o
42.8

July

COMPOSITE INDEX OF 5 COINCIDENT
(1967=100)

31.2
30.5
31.2
39.7
41.6
46.9
42.2

1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

June

32a

43.5

32.2
29.3
37.8
40.7
45.6
43.3
44.2

31.3
30.9
30.b
39.4
41.3
46.3
42.6

31.9
29.6
32.5
40.2
41.5
47.0
42.0

32.7
29.1
3b.6
39.9
42.2
46.7
4-2.0

32.5
26.8
37.0
40.3
45.0
44.*
43.4

29.0
33,9
39.9
42.5
40.1
42.b

50.0
53.0
52.3
52.7
56.0
57.3
61.5
65.6
69.8
76.9

50.4
53.6
51.5
53.0
58.4
b6.5
62.1
65.7
70.6
78.0

45.4
50.9
54.2
49.7
54.7
59.3
56.4
62.9
66.3
71.5

47.5
51.5
54.0
48.b
b7.4
59.2
57.6
64.0
67.6
73.4

48.9
51.0
54.2
50.2
56.b
58.b
59.3
64.0
68.V
75.3

50.0
53.3
b2.4
52.3
56.7
57.2
61.4
65.6
70.1
76.7

4o.O
51.0
53.7
b0.2
56.3
58.0
56.7
64.3
60.2
74.2

87.3
97.3
102.8
114.2
122.2
117.1
126.2
144.2
162.6

86.5
97.4
104.2
114.6
122.3
116.6
127.2
145.6
162.1

79.2
90.7
97.9
lOb.S
116.6
121.0
120.6
130.3
149.3

81.5
93.2
98.8
108.7
119.0
12C.9
123.2
134.3
153.2

84.4
95.b
100.7
111.2
120.9
120,3
124.0
137.a
157.4

87.3
97.2
102.6
114.0
122.2
113.0
126.1
143.9
161.9

83.1
94,1
100.0
109.9
119.7
120.1
123.b
136,0

lbb.5

1974...
1975...
8 2 5 . CON POSITE

INDEX OF 5 COINCIDENT INDICATORS, DEFLATED
(1967=100)

AVEhAGE FOR PERIOD

1945
1947
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954

34.1
33.9
33.0
41.1
42.5
47.9

33.8
33.5
33.2
41.2
43.2
48.8
44 5

34.2
33.1
34.4
41.4
43.5
49,3

34.0
32.7
34.9
41.9
43.4
49.2

34.4
3?. L
i5.fi
4?.O
43.6
49.6

35.0
32.0
36.5
42.1
43.3
49.4

35.1
31. b
38.C
41.7
42.5
49.5

35.0
31.8
39.5
42.0
44.2
48.9

3b.1
32.3
39.1
41.7
4b. 6
46.2

35.3
30.7
39.4
41.8
46.6
47.9
44 K

3b. 0
31.7
39.3
42.0
47.1
46.7

1955...
1956...
1957...
1956...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

46.9
53.3
55.3
51.4
54.6
60.2
56.8
62.8
66.0
71.8

47.5
53.5
56.1
50.2
55.5
60.5
56.5
63.7
67.1
72.7

46.5
53.3
56.3
49.5
56.4
59,7
57.2
64.2
67.6
72.9

49.1
54.(
55.7
48.6
57.7
60.?
57.4
64.7
68.2
73.8

50., >
b3.6
55.1I
48.Q
5 6 . '*
60.0
JR. L
)
68. t•
74.h

bo. 6
53.7
55.4
49.6
b8.8
59.5
59.1
6S.0
69.0
74.6

51.3
51.8
55.6
50.2
56.4
59.3
5V.4
65.5
69.4
75.9

51.2
53.9
55.0
50.8
56.8
59,0
60.1
65.5
69.7
76.3

51.8
54.7
55.0
«S1,5
56.5
59.0
60.2
6b.b
70.3
77.1

52.1
55.3
54.6
52.C
56.2
58.3
61.2
66.2
70.9
76.4

52.6
b4.9
53.4
53.5
56.7
57.8
62.3
66.4
70.6
76.C

b3.0
55.5
b2.5
53.8
59.2
56.8
62.9
66.5
71.3
79.2

47.6
53.4
55.9
50.4
55.5
60.1
56.6
63.6
67.2
72.5

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

79.6
90.6
98.2
104.1
113.2
115.6
112.4
119.2
134.9

79.9
91.6
98.0
105.1
114.3
115.5
113.0
120.4
136.1

81.5
93.0
98.3
106.0
115.0
115.3
113.2
121.8
136.5

81.8
93.2

6?.7
93.5
96.9
107.7
Ub. 7
114.' 7
114.5
124. L
1 3 7 . .4

63.3
94.9
99.5
108.2
116.1
114.4
115.9
124.5
137.6

64.7
95.4
99.9
109.C
116.4
114.4
114.5
12b.C
139.5

85.4
95.9
100.9
109.5
117.2
114.2
114.5
127.1
138.7

86.7
00.6
101.0
110.b
117.3
U3.6
H6.0
126.2
139.9

67.4
97.3
100.4
111.1
117.111.1
116.C
130.'
141. e

88.6
97.7
102.5
112.?
117.3
109.b
117.1
132.6
142.2

89.7
97.8
103.7
112.5
117.0
111.3
117.7
133.3
140.5

80.4
91.7
98.2
10b.1
114.2
U5.5
112.9
120.b
135.6

98.8
105.7
115.3
115.6
113.9
123.1
136.7

34.7
32.1
40.2
42.4
47.8
45.3

4 5 *>

34.0
33.b
33.b
41.2
43.1
48.7
44,3

34.5
32.3
35.7
42.0
43.4
49.4
43 7

3b.1
31.9
38.V
41.6
44.2
48.9
43 e

35.0
31.5
39.6
42.1
47.2
46.6
45 4

5C.0
53.B
55.5
49.0
b8.3
59.9
56,2
64.9
68.5
74.4

51.H
53.b
5b.b
50.6
5 7 . <L
*9.1
59.9
65.t
6V.3
76.4

52.6
55.2
53.5
b3.1
57.4
57.6
62.1
66.4
70.9
77.9

82.0
93.9
99.1

85.6
96.0
100.O

8b.6
97.6
102.2

107.b
115.7
114.9
114.6
123.9
137.2

109.6
117.0
11H.1
115.0
126.0
139.4

112.0
117.3
110.7
116.9
132.2
141,4

' **
!" *
34^6
32J3
30.9
41.6
44,5
40,4
44.3
b0.4
54,0
55,1
50.6
57,1
59,2
59,3
6b,1
69.1
75.3
84.3
94,0
100.0
106,6
116.0
113.8
114.9
125,6
13d,3

1974...
1975...
830.

COMPOSITE IMDEX OF 6 LAGblNfa INDICATORS
(1967=100)

AVERAGE FUR PERIOD

1945
***
•« •
1946...
1949...
1950...
1951...

25.6
26.7
24.6
32.7

26.2
28.4
24.7
33.9

26.6
27.9
?4.8
34.9

26.8
27.4
24.9
36.2

26.'1
2 6 . <»
2f>. «
37..5

27.2
26.3
25. a
37.6

27. H
25.26.3
36.2

1952...
1953...
1954

42.4
43 5

42 S

43 ".5
42 1

41.9

'•
4 4 ! '4
41 • ;

41.0
4a. 7
40.9

?b.2
25.2
?7.2
3b.6
40 "

40 • 5

39 9

1955...
1956...
1957...
1956...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

39.9
47.8
55.0
55.0
50.9
57.6
58.0
59.1
62. U
66.6

40.2
48.4
55.1
54.1
51.2
58.7
57.7
59.2
61.8
67.4

40.5
49.1
55.4
53.0
51.7
. 59.1
57.4
59.7
62.2
67.7

40.7
50.?
55.9
51.8
52.7
59. P
57.1
60.3
62.?
68.1

4 1 . '-*
50. <
b6, L
50.' 5
53. (,
6 0 . <3
ol. ( )
60.7
62.5
6P.« t

42.2
51.5
56.2
49.5
bu,5
60.7
57.0
61.3
63.3
68.6

43.1
52.'
56.6
49.3
55.5
60.1
56.7
61.5
64.0
66.9

44.4
52.8
57.1
46.9
56.6
59.4
57.2
61.8
64.2
69.6

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

72.8
64.1
98.5
103.9
117.2
134.1
128.9
130.7
145.6

73.4
85.7
98.5
105.1
118.7
133.6
127.8
130.8
149.2

76.4
69.7
99,8
106. L
122.9
13U.J
1 2 7 . -5
132.f
lb<±.-5

76.7
91.7
100.0
108,b
125.1
134.1
127.9
133.3
162.5

77.9
92.6
100.4
109.5
127.2
135.5
12b.4
133.6
167.4

78.b
94.6
99.9
110.4
1?9.3
135.5
130.0
134.6
171.0

74.5
86.7
99.1
105.8
120.2
134.0
127.9
131.0
151.9

75.2
88.0
99.5
107.3
121.2
134.1
127.5
132.2
155.6

2b.7
24.5
31.6
39.8
41 7
44.0
40.1

26.2
28.3
24.7
33.0

27.0
26.9
25.3
37.1

28.2
?5.3
27.2
36.b

26.P
24.0
30.6
39.?

27^5
20.3
27.0
37.1

43.0

44.4

44.V

44.5

39 .6

28.9
24.4
30. d
36.9
41 7
4H.4
39 • 9

40,7
44,2

46.5
53.9
56.4
50.0
56.9
58.8
58.3
62.1
65.9
71.0

46.9

59.1
57.4
62.0
64.8
70.4

45.5
53.6
56.5
49.5
b7.0
58.6
57.9
62.3
65.3
71.C

54.3
bo.O
50.7
57.3
bb.4
56.4
62.2
66.7
72.0

40.2
48.4
55.2
54.0
51.3
56.5
57.7
59,3
62.0
67.2

41.4
50.6
56.1
50.0
53.6
60.5
57.0
60.b
62.7
66.4

44.1
52.0
57.0
49.2
56.3
59.b
57.1
61.6
64.3
69.6

46.3
53.9
56.3
50.1
b7.1
56.6
bo.2
62.2
66.0
71.3

57.5
61.0
63.7
69.2

79.3
95.b
100.3
HI.3
130.1
134.V
130.1
136.3
173.6

30.7
96.4
100.4
112.0
131.2
133.9
130.1
138.4
177.2

81.9
97.7
101.1
112.4
132.0
132.1
130.2
140.9
176.9

82.8
96.0
102.4
115.8
132.9
129.6
130.5
143.0
182.2

73.6
85.5
98.7
104,V
118,7
133,9
126,2
130.6
140.V

76.1
89.8
99.6
108.1
123.1
134.1
127.0
132.6
158.8

76.6
94.3
100.2
110.4
128.V
13b.J
1?9.3
134.0
170.7

61.9
97.4
101.3
113.4
132.0
131.9
130.3
140.B
179.4

77, b
91,7
100,0
109.2
125.7
133.0
126.9
134. d
164,4

26.b
25.0
26.2
3b,6

28.7
24. F
29.5
38.8

4b.0
39 , 7
44,b
53,0
57.3
49.3
50, d

43.0
bl.b
56.1
51.0
54.6

1974...
1975...
Note:

These ser:




(August 1975)

107

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly

Quarterly
Annual

Year
Jan.
05.

Feb.

DIFFUSION

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

INDEX FOR INITIAL CLAIMS FoR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE/ STATc P R O G R A M S — 4 7
(PERCENT DECLINING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

II Q

III Q

IVQ

AREAS
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

*
*

1951.. .
1952...
1953...
1954...

70.2
61.7
PI.3

51.1
23.4
42.6

29.8
61.7
34.0

40.4
44.7
48.9

b9.6
26.7
48.9

38.3
50.0
61.7

29.8
46.8
57.4

89.4
27.7
17.0

74.b
38.3
53.2

51.1
36.2
44.7

58.5
19.1
89.4

34.0
42.6
61.7
78.7

50.4
48.9
32.6

46.1
41.1
53.2

64.6
37.b
42,5

b0.7
39.0
70.9

5id!£
41.7
49,8

1955...
1956...
1957...
1953...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

44.7
61.7
27.7
38.3
87.2
31.9
59,6
46,8
34.0
89.4

66.0
55.3
80.9
5.3
40.4
44.7
17.0
76.6
89.4
27.7

66,0
44.7
38.3
53.2
59.6
17.0
80,9
38.3
31.9
57.4

53.2
63.8
27.7
44.7
85.1
46.8
46.8
48.9
47.9
77.7

57.4
37.?
48.9
73.4
40.4
36.?
51.1
46.8
46.8
48.9

34.0
44.7
42.6
55.3
38.3
41.5
70.2
19.1
68.1
48.9

71.3
40.4
36.2
59.6
51.1
62.8
46.8
63.8
44.7
63.8

46.8
66.1
54.3
46.8
45.7
19.1
57.4
61.7
44.7
51.1

47.9
44.7
27.7
60.6
40.4
66.1
47.9
42.6
44.7
53.2

50.0
64.9
42.6
72.3
17.0
40.4
80.9
36.2
59.6
34.0

66.0
44.7
21.3
64.9
53.2
34.0
72.3
72.3
40.4
31.9

27.7
29.8
55.3
36.2
91.5
61.7
31.9
36.2
23.4
63.0

58.9
53.9
49.0
32.3
62.4
31.2
52.5
53,9
51,8
58.2

46.2
48.6
39.7
57.8
54.6
41.5
56.0
38.3
54.3
56.b

5b. 3
51.1
39.4
55.7
45.7
50.0
50.7
56.0
44.7
56.0

47.9
46.5
39.7
57.6
53.9
45.4
61.7
48,2
41.1
49.6

52.6
50.0
42.0
50.9
54.2
42.0
b5.2
49,1
48,0
bb.6

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

24.5
38.3
55.3
25.5
72.3
31.9
38.3
42.6
67.0

57.4
44.7
17.0
80.9
38.3
25.5
61.7
46.8
74.5

66.0
83.0
46.8
25.5
55.3
44.7
42.6
59.6
36.2

61.7
53.2
55.3
63.8
48.9
25.5
48.9
55.3
53.?

b9.6
45.7
54.3
bl.l
57.4
b3.8
44.7
36.?
36.2

51.1
57.4
55.3
53.2
23.4
42.6
40.4
53.2
57.4

34.0
17.0
34.0
b7.4
51.1
59.6
57.4
66.0
63.8

38.3
72.3
72.3
40.4
59.6
42.6
25.5
66.0
46.8

76.7
30.9
60.6
63.8
38.3
31.9
4b.3
4b, d
44.7

57.4
36.2
33.3
66.0
45.7
53.2
57.4
59.6
46.8

44.7
46.8
74.5
31.9
31.9
57.4
66.0
81.9
72.3

51.1
27.7
46.8
61.7
57.4
70.2
b9.6
38.3
2.1

49.3
55.3
39.7
44.0
55.3
34.0
47.5
49.7
59.2

5 7 . b
5?. 1
55.0
b6.0
43.2
44.0
44.7
48.2
48.9

50.3
5b.7
5b.6
53.9
49.7
44.7
43.2
59.b
51.8

51.1
36.9
53.2
53.2
45.0
60.3
61.0
59,9
40.4

52.0
50.3
bO,9
51, b
48.3
4b.7
49,1
54,4
50,1

D5.

DIFFUSION

INDEX FOR INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE* STATt P R O G R A M S — 4 7
(PERCENT DECLINING OVER 9-"I0NTH SPAMS)

AREAS
AVERAGE FOP PtRlOi)

1953...
1954...

55.3
4.3

42.6
10.6

38.3
25.5

8.5
27.7

10.6
14.Q

72.3
4.3
25.5

63.8
2.1
66.0

72.3
2.1
95.7

80.9
0.0
93.6

74.5
10.6
93.6

60.9
6.4
91.5

87.2
2.1
87.2

4S|4
13.b

63.8
7.6
22.7

72.3
1.4
85.1

60.9
6.4
90.S

53.0

1955...
1956...
1957...
1956...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

93.6
46.8
34.0
4.3
97.9
14.9
55.3
60.9
44.7
73.4

87.2
44.7
31.9
19.1
93.6
25.5
53.2
55.3
66.0
72.3

93.6
29.8
23.4
12.6
76.6
51.1
63.8
48.9
72.3
70.2

85.1
38.3
21.3
31.9
76.6
25.b
85.1
36.2
48.9
74.5

33.0
43.6
12.8
27.7
63.0
1 2 . ft
70.2
46..?
63.8
69,4

85.1
57.4
21.3
b7.4
19.1
10.b
89.4
44.7
80.9
60.6

78.7
55.3
0.0
95.7
36.2
6.4
100.0
3b. 3
4b.6
61.7

55.3
42.6
4.3
91 .b
46.9
21.3
93.6
27.7
31.9
89.4

59.6
21.3
a.5
97.9
2b.5
88.3
27.7
Sb.l
61.7

70.?
63.8
0.0
93.6
25.5
14.9
95.7
53.2
60.6
70.2

66.0
43.6
0.0
97.9
17.0
27.7
93.6
74.5
53.?
74.5

68.1
42.6
6.4
91.5
31.9
19.1
80.9
53.2
73.4
72.3

91.5
40.4
29.8
12.1
89.4
30.5
57.4
61.7
61.0
72.0

84.4
46. H
18.5
39.0
59.6
16.3
61.6
42.6
64.b
74.8

64. a
39.7
4.3
9b.0
36.9
16.3
94. u
31.2
54.6
70.9

68.1
50.0
2.1
94.3
24.6
20.6
90.1
60.3
6?.4
72.3

77.1
44,2
13,7
60,1
52.6
20,9
80.0
49,0
6u.b
72.5

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

78.7
91.5
27.7
57.4
70.2
4.3
46.8
68.1
68.1

78.7
74.5
8.5
51.1
46.8
2.1
61.7
63.8
66.0

59.6
44.7
8.5
61.7
40.4
11.7
72.3
76.6
74.5

66.0
68.1
31.9
38.3
58.5
6.4
57.4
78.7
38.3

61.7
76.6
44.7
51.1
34.0
12.8
21.3
57.4
6b.1

78.7
78.7
29.6
74.5
25.5
2.1
48.9
70.2
57.4

80.9
80.9
78.7
36.2
26.7
12.8
42.6
83.0
57.4

87.2
34.0
78.7
66.0
?4.5
25.5
57.4
61.7
8.5

70.2
34.0
66.0
76.6
8.5
55.3
63.6
80.9
8.5

62.8
23.4
60.9
63.8
6.4
55.3
70.2
91.5
38.3

91.5
17.0
70.2
76.7
12.8
51.1
74.5
93.6
29.8

95.7
46.6
76.7
59.6
12.8
46.8
57.4
61.7
23.4

72.3
70.2
14.9
56.7
52.5
6.0
60.3
69.5
69.5

68.8
74.5
35.5
54.6
39.3
7.1
42.5
68.6
54.6

79.4
49.6
74.5
59. o
20. b
31.2
54.6
75.2
24.6

83.3
29.1
76.6
67.4
10.7
51.1
67.4
62.3
30.5

76.0
55.6
b0.4
59.6
30.0
23.6
bo.2
73.9
44.9

39.

PERCENT OF CONSUMER

INSTALLMENT LOAi ^S DELINQUENT 30 DAYS AND OVER 1
(PERCFNT)

1946...
1947...
1946...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

2.31
2.22
2.70
2.20
2.03
1.87
2.0b

2.11
2.81
2.73
2.06
1.91
1.83
2.07

2.49
2.85
2.38
2.10
2.05
1.90
1.98

2.34
2.70
2.45
2.31
1.98
1.75
1.99

2.2]
2.80
2.43
2.09
2.OR
1.89
1.94

2.29
2.91
2.22
2,06
2.2b
1.62
1.91

?!l7
?'. 9 1
2.17
2.17
2.19
1.83
1.86

2.22
2.5b
2.26

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

1.61
1.52
1.50
1.57
1.56
1.71
1.81
1.69
1.59
1.69

1.62
1.46
1.50
1.63
1.55
1.60
1.84
1.69
1.60
1.68

1.53
1.53
1.57
1.76
1.52
1.60
1.81
1.69
1.64
1.66

1.55
1.54
1.47
1.70
1.50
1.64
1.85
1.67
1.59
1.59

l.b^s
1.49
1.46
1.74
1.49
1.6a
1.03
i.6'4
1.57
1.68

1.50
1.51
1.52
1.75
1.43
1,6d
1.79
1.6b
1.68
1.63

1.49
1.51
1.50
1.71
1.36
1.73
1.63
1.61
I.b8
1.63

1.69
1.7b
1.67
1.59
1.63
1.80
1.72
1.7b
2.01

...
...

1.76
1.76
1.72
1.56
1.64
1.79
1.76
1.85
1.99

1965...
1966...
1967...
1963...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

# >

91

1.79
1.75
1.86
1.57
1.57
1.83
1.81
1.72
2.01

m t
m#
# t

,t

...
•«•
• ••
• •.
.«.
...

...
...
. •.
...
. . .
. . •
...
...
. . •

END OF PEKIOU

? . 14
2.01
1.83

2.20
2.69
2.30
2.0V
1.99
1.97
1.81

2.23
2.70
2.23
2.05
.99
.97
.64

2.40
2.37
2.69
L.97
2.23
L.85
2.02
L.79

2.40
2.02
2.67
2.09
2.1b
1.92
1.98
1.65

2.49
2.85
2.36
2.10
2.0b
1.90
1.98

2.29
2.91
2.2^
2.06
2.25
1.82
1.91

?.2U
2.69
2.30
2.09
1.99
1.97
1.81

2.02
2.67
2.09
2,1K
1.92
L.VP
. 6^

• • •
2.4U
2.02
2.67
2.09
2.1b
1.92
1.9B
1.6b

1.44
1.53
1.46
1.7b
1.52
1.70
1.80
1.61
1.67
1.71

1.47
1.54
1.54
1.63
1.56
1.71
1.76
1.63
1.73
1.6b

.47
.48
.51
.60
.67
.79
.70
1.61
1.65
1.71

.44
.49
.55
L.60
L.7b
L.7P.
L.67
L.63
L.79
...

1.50
1.52
1.57
1.55
1.65
1.76
1.68
1.64
1.76
1.70

1.53
1.53
1.57
1.76
1.32
1.60
1.81
1.69
1.64
1.6b

1.50
1.51
1.52
1.75
1.43
1.66
1.79
1.6b
1.68
1.63

1.47
l.bn
1.54
1,63
1.56
1.71
1.7b
1.63
1.73
1.6b

.50
L.b?
L.57
L.55
L.65
L.76
L.b6
L.64
L.76
L.70

l.bO
1.52
1.57
1.5b
1.65
1.7b
1.6b
1.64
1.76
1.70

1.81
1.77
1.67
1.48
1.68
1.85
1.90
2.00
2.11

...

1.6b
1.74
1.69
1.63
1.76
1.90
1.72
1.96
2.27

1.79
1.7b
1.66
1.57
1.57
1.83
1.81
1.72
2.01

1.76
1.76
1.72
1.56
1.64
1.79
1.78
1.8b
1.99

1.62
1.76
1.64
1.5b
1.66
1.87
1 .73
1.V3
2.02

L.65
L.74
L.69
L.63
L.76
L.90
L.72
L.96
2.27

1.6b
1.74
1.69
1.63
1.76
1.90
1.72
1.96
2.27

1.82
1.76
1.64
1.55
1.68
1.87
1.7b
1.93
2.02

...
...
,,,
. • •
...
. • •
. • •

(August 1975)

108




C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly

Annual

Year
Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

II Q

III Q

IV Q

506. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS FOR EXPORT, DURABLE GOODS EXCEPT MOTOR VEHICLES ANC PARTS
TOTAL FOR PERIOD

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

1963..
1964..

475
643

625
703

527
708

545
736

1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..

614
876
920
909
834
1,174
1/518
1,427
2,304

746
866
855
1,007
1,391
1,561
1,472
1,372
2,248

694
903
904
1,314
1,118
1,578
1,469
1,554
2,307

721
764
793
917

508.

1,110
1,493
1,394
1,337
2,111

58<s

5D4

659

667

499
690

644
666

546
748

577
671

538
703

666
659

1,627
2,054

1,684
2,062

1,689
2,104

1,781
2,033

6,781
8,253

695
953

845
1,010
961
989
1,211
1,342
1,503
2,085
2,109

855
827
907
914
1,215
1,258
1,298
1,706
2,228

837
879
887
988
1,239
1,357
1,450
2,036
2,853

739
1,069
924
923
1,317
1,674
1,578
1,947
2,104

724
894
829
1,268
1,341
1,384
1,475
1,833
2,633

869
776
671
925
1,312
1,364
1,281
1,702
2,291

927
1,119
993
1,082
1,370
1,884
1,766
2,250
2,665

2,054
2,645
2,679
3,230
3,343
4,313
4,459
4,353
6,859

2,261
2,727
2,759
2,953
3,543
4,010
4,139
4,762
6,478

2,431
2,775
2,718
2,825
3,771
4,289
4,326
5,689
7,185

2,520
2,789
2,693
3,275
4,023
4,632
4,522
5,765
7,589

9,266
10,936
10,849
12,283
14,680
17,244
17,446
20,589
28,111

1,005
1,047
1,222
1,175
1,24?

l,34o
2,25B

INDEX OF EXPORT ORDERS FOR NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY
(1967*100)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1947 .

1951 .

1955..
1956 .
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..

61
52
43
44
61
72
77
91

58
39
42
50
65
75
81
93

51
42
41
53
66
77
70
86

50
41
45
49
74
76
75
92

54
37
46
53
71
75
79
93

39
36
41
58
83
78
73
93

43
35
48
56
79
82
76
93

45
31
43
61
80
75
77
97

43
39
4b
57
73
75
83
99

45
35
52
56
74
81
66
96

40
43
46
61
72
78
63
100

41
43
49
60
70
77
88
97

57
44
42
49
64
75
76
90

48
36
44
53
76
76
76
93

44
35
46
5d
77
77
79
96

42
40
49
59
72
79
66
93

i+8
39
45
55
72

1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..

98
101
103
99
123
117
121
137
164

105
93
87
113
123
121
117
137
172

100
99
106
116
107
119
117
137
184

103
89
95
109
113
121
126
149
193

102
98
93
113
119
120
127
145
184

99
93
94
99
127
119
134
155
207

100
93
92
103
132
124
133
170
189

104
89
93
108
120
122
141
180
192

99
90
96
111
130
121
135
168
194

97
104
120
106
123
106
130
173
195

97
107
106
107
116
116
135
165
205

96
99
115
106
119
120
145
157
191

101
98
99
109
118
119
118
137
173

101
93
94
107
120
120
129
150
195

101
91
94
107
127
122
136
173
192

97
103
114
106
119
114
137
165
197

100
96
100
106
121
119
130
156
189

77
79
94

1975..
«59. REAL SPENDABLE AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY VVORKERS ON PRIVATE
(1967 DOLLARS)
NONAGRICULTUrtAL PAYROLLS1

AVERAGE FOR FERIOD

1945 .
1946 .

•. •
66.73
67.28
69.66
72, la
71.71
72.79
75.29
75.59

1964..

87.15

88.17

88.09

P8.57

88.65

88.21

88.84

89.17

88.94

88.90

89.34

90.33

67.80

88.46

68.96

89,5?

79,06
80.86
60.32
79.80
82.31
82.23
83.13
84.98
85.67
88.88

1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..

90.58
91.42
91.05
90.91
91.09
90.53
91.6P
95.72
96.42

91.13
91.04
90.38
91.35
90.88
90.56
92.06
95.57
96.32

91.19
91.45
90.57
91.13
90.95
90.48
92.14
96.24
96.17

90.59
91.55
90.57
91.01
90.94
90.02
92.54
96.94
96.34

91.40
90.86
90.53
91.47
91.41
89.65
92.35
96.19
95.83

90.95
91.36
90.69
91.57
91.25
8V.79
92.39
9b.49
95.89

91.19
91.49
91.12
91.23
90.91
90.23
91.91
96.76
96.23

91.41
90.75
91.07
91.18
90.98
90.57
92.84
96.87
94.78

91.02
90.62
91.08
91.90
91.25
89.42
92.56
97.19
95.40

91.83
91.10
90.71
91.46
90.77
89.42
93.32
98.03
94.58

92.14
91.17
91.42
91.20
90.73
89.55
93.57
97.72
94.43

91,61
90.85
90.80
91.49
90.43
89.80
93.89
97.39
94.22

90.97
91.30
90.67
91.13
90.97
90.52
91.96
95.84
96.30

90.98
91.26
90.60
91.35
91.20
89.82
92.43
96.54
96.02

91.21
90.95
91.0V
91.44
91.05
90.07
92.«4
96.94
95.47

91.93
91.04
90.9d
91.38
90.64
89.59
93.59
97.71
94.41

91.32
91.21
90.86
yi.44
91.07
69.95
92.6 7
96.64
95.73




(August 1975)

109

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly

Quarterly

Year

Annual
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

741. REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS/ PRODUCTION WORKERS IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY
(INDEX: 1967=100)

II Q

III Q

IV Q

AVERAGE FOP PERIOD

1946...
63.7
63.8
67.5
69.3
69.0
70.9
74,4
76.6

1964..

94.0

94.3

94.5

94.5

94.7

94.8

95.0

95.5

95.5

95.5

95.7

95.9

94.3

94.7

95.3

95.7

79.4
82.3
83.4
84.3
86.8
88,4
90.2
92.2
93.7
95.1

1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..

95.9
97.9
99.1
101.1
102.7
103.2
105.1
108.8
111.2

96.4
97.4
99.3
101.3
103.0
103.3
105.8
108.8
110.8

96.7
97.5
99.5
101.4
102.8
103.5
106.0
109.2
110.5

96.5
97.8
99.9
101.6
102.6
103.2
106.2
109.8
110.4

96.7
97.8
99.8
101.8
103.0
103.4
106.4
109.6
110.1

96.6
98.1
100.1
102.0
103.2
103.5
106.4
109.8
110.^

96.9
98.1
100.3
102.1
103.2
103.9
106.6
109.8
110.6

97.4
97.8
100.2
102.2
103.2
104.6
107.1
110.1
109.4

97.5
98.1
100.3
102.5
103.2
10H.6
107.3
HO.3
HO.O

97.8
98.1
100.6
102.5
103.7
104.3
107.4
110.9
109.6

97.8
98.5
100.7
102.6
103.7
104.5
107.3
U0.9
109.3

97.7
98.8
100.9
102.9
103.2
104.5
108.3
111.4
109.1

96.3
97.6
99.3
101.3
102.8
103.3
105.6
106.9
110.8

96.6
97.9
99.9
101.8
102.9
103.4
106.3
109.7
110.3

97.3
98.0
100.3
102.5
103.2
104.4
107.0
110.1
110.0

97. b
98.5
100.7
102.7
103.5
104.4
107.7
111.1
109.3

97.0
98.1
100.0
102.0
103.2
103.9
106.7
110.0
110.1

1958,..

741-C. PERCENT CHANGES IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(MONTHLY RATE/ PERCENT)

AVERAGE FOP PERIOD

1946 .
1949 ..
1950...

1954 ..
1955..,

1960 ..
1961..,
1963,.1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..

0.0
0.2
0.3
0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.6
0.5
-0.2

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.2

6.1

0.3

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.5
-0.5
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.7
0.0
-0.4

0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
-0.3

-0.1
0.3
0.4
0.3
-0.2
-0.3
0.2
0.5
-0.1

0.?
0.0
-0.1
C.I
O.U
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.3

-0.1
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.2

0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.5
0.3
-1.1

0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.5

0.4
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.4
-0.3
0.1
0.5
-0.4

0.0
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.3

0.0
0.2
0.2
0.4
-0.4
0.0
0.9
0.5
-0.2

0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.3
-0.3

741-C. PERCENT CHANGES IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 6-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.0

0.3
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.2
-0.1

0.1
0.2
0.2
0.?
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
-0.3

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-0

2
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
2

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1945 .

1954 .

1964...
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..

2.2
0.0
3.7
2.2
0.3
-0.9
3.6
4.4
-0.8

2.2
0.1
2.6
2.1
0.9
-0.5
3.7
4.2
-1.3

1.5
0.8
2.8
2.1
1,5
0.6
3.7
2.8
-1.9

2.2

2.6

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.4

1.8

1.9

2.5

2.0
0.3
2.4
2.0
1.0
1.4
2.9
1.9
-1.0

2.1
0.8
1.7
1.8
0.4
2.6
2.5
2.6
-2.6

1.6
1.2
1.7
2.1
0.9
2.1
2.5
2.0
-1.0

2.7
0.6
1.3
1.6
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.1
-1.5

2.1
1.5
1.8
1.5
1.3
2.1
1.6
2.4
-1.6

2.3
1.4
1.6
l.fa
0.1
1.8
3.5
3.0
-2.3

2.2
2.1
1.5
1.2
-0.2
2.3
4.2
2.6
-4.2

0.1
3.1
2.3
1.6
0.2
2.3
3.2
1.3
-2.9

0.1
2.8
2.1
0.7
0.4
2.7
4.1
0.3
-4.7

2.0
0.3
3.0
2.1
0.9
-0.3
3.7
3.8
-1.3

2.3

2.2

2.1

1.9
0.8
1.9
2.0
0.8
2.0
2.6
2.2
-1.5

2.4
1.2
1.6
1.6
1.1
2.0
2.5
2.5
-1.8

0.8
2.7
2.0
1.2
0.1
2.4
3.8
1,4
-3.0

1.8
1.2
2 .1
1.7
0 ,7
1.6
3 .2
2• 5
-2 ,2

(August 1975)

110




C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Quarterly

Year

Annual
1 Q

770.

1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

OUTPUT PER MANHOUR, TOTAL
( I N D E X : 1967-100)

m m

,

#

770-C.
AVERAGE

...
...

...
...

...
• •.

••.
51.3
53.5
54.2
59.3
61.2
63.1
66.0
66.5

51.2
53.5
55.8
60.1
63.0
63.4
66.0
67.6

51.8
54.2
56.0
60.7
62.8
64.1
66.4
68.5

51.2
53.4
5b.1
59.8
61.9
63.4
65.9
67.2

69.7
69.7
71.8
72.7
76.4
79.0
77.8
82.9
86.3
90.4

70.3
69.9
72.0
73.6
76.6
78.1
80.7
83.9
86.7
90.8

70.2
69.3
72.2
74.9
76.4
77.5
81.5
85.2
88.0
91.6

69.9
71.1
72.6
75.8
77.4
77.6
82.4
66.5
89.0
91.5

70.0
70.2
72.1
74.3
76.7
78.0
80.6
84.6
87.6
91.2

92.7
97.4
98.5
101.9
103.4
102.9
107.6
110.3
115.8

93.0
97.8
100.2
102.9
103.2
103.9
107.7
111.8
115.1

95.0
97.9
100.5
103.5
103.2
105.6
109.0
112.7
114.8

96.5
99'. 2
100.8
103.6
103.2
105.0
109.4
114.3
115.0

94.2
98.2
100.0
103.0
103.3
104.4
108.4
112.3
115.2

• •

.••
.»•

••.
. •.
•. •
4.4
4.3
7.7
4.7
0.8
4.1
2.4

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958... , m
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

3.8

-0.5
3.4
3.7
2.0
1.4
5.1
4.5
3.3
4.1

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975... • •
63.

...

• •.

-0.9

i960
1961
1962
1963....,
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974..,..
1975

-0.4

-0.5

2.3
3.2
3.4
1.8

1.7
4.2
4.4
0.6

4.6
2.4
5.0

-2.6

-2.1

TOTAL PRIVATE. ECONOMY
1967=100)

AVERAGE

71.2
74.8
72.3
71.9
75.6
79.2
81.4
81.4

73.0
75.4
72.9
72.7
76.8
80.3
81.1
61.3

70.9
74.0
73.1
71.8
76.1
79.0
60.8
81.6

1945
1946. • • •
1947. • • t
1946.
1949,
1950.
1951. • • •
1952. . • •
1953.
1954.

80.3
86.0
88.4
89.8
90.1
92.8
93.1
93.1
93.0
93.3

80.3
86.2
88.7
89.4
91.6
93.1
92.7
92.4
92.8
93.9

81.4
86.7
69.5
89.3
91.5
93.4
92.9
92.0
93.0
95.0

80.4
85.4
68.5
89.7
90.8
92.7
93.1
92.7
92.9
93.8

1955.
1956.
1*57.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963,
1964.

94.8
96.5
99.2
103.5
110.7
118.1
121.P
124.6
129.8

94.1
97.6
100.3
105.1
112.'

94.1
98.2
101.3
107.1
115.4
120.6
122.8
125.4
134.7

94.2
96.7
100.0
104.7
111.8
118.8
121.6
124.8
131.1

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

94.2
94.9
99.1
102.8
108.3
117.2
120.2
124.9
127.6

Note:
Perc ent changes are cent ered within the s

i " M

122.3
124.9
132.1

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .
. . .

. . .

*..
t • •

-2.8
4.7

-1.0
-1.3
10.3
3.1
5.3

. . .

, ,,
. . .

-0.2
-6.2
-8.6
16.0
4.1
1.6
6.5

-7.1
12.3

.. •

4.6
4.8
4.3
1.7
2.6
0.5
4.2

. . .

0.6

. . .

• •.
. . .
. . .
. . .

-3.2
. . .

*
.
.
•

•
•
•
•

•
*
•
•

. . .

•»#
. •«

1.0
1.5
7.2
3.9

6.0

12.1
2.5
0.3
6.8

-0.7
-0.2

-1.7

1.2
7.4

2.4
4.9
5.4
0.7
4.9
6.6
4.6

-1.2
-3.1
3.9
6.3
6.0
3.2

4.0
0.4
5.9

8.9
0.7
1.3
2.2
0.0
6.7
4.8
3.0

-2.1

-1.3

-0.6

...
4.2

5.7
1.6
3.5
-1.3
4.3
2.3
5.2

7.4*

-0.3
6.4
5.4
0.9
0.7
0.0

-2.2
1.5
5.7
0.8

...
...

3.6
3.4
5.8
4.7
6.7

-1.5
7.0
7.5

PERCENT CHANGE1

...
...
4.3
3.0
a.6
3.5
2.4
4.0
2.0
4.2
0.2
2.8
3.0
3.3
1.6
3.3
5.0
3.b
4.1
3.4
4.2
1.9
3.0
0.3
1.0
3.9
3.6
2.5

AVERAGE

*. •
57.3
59.1
61.9
65.6
67.8
67.5
69.8
71.4

...
...
58.1

...
...
57.1

59.5
61.3
66.1
67.9
68.5
69.8
71.8

56.8
61.0
65.2
66.9
67.9
69.7
70.9

74.1
73.5
74.7
76.3
79.6
80.1
62.2
85.5
88.2
92.3

74.3
73.4
75.3
77.4
78.8
79.8
83.3
86.8
89.5
93.0

73.7
73.9
75.5
78.3
79.6
79.8
84.1
86.3
90.4
92.5

73.9
73.5
75.0
76,7
79,2
80.1
62.4
86.4
89,0
92.4

94.0
98.2
99.9
103.1
102.9
103.1
106.7
110.5
113.7

95.8
98.3
100.6
103.3
102.7
104.8
107.9
111.9
113.6

97.3
99.5
100.8
103.5
102.5
103.8
108.3
113.1
113.4

95.1
96.6
100,0
103.0
102.7
103,4
107,2
111.2
113.7

...

...
...
6.1

...
...
5.2

-2.3
-4.8

13.0
-5.4

1.8
6.3
6.2

1.1

-0.5

-5.2
2.2
4.7

...
...

10.6
3.2
3.7
5.1
6.4
5.6

1.4

-5.7

-1.7
-0.4

2.2

0.1
1.0
1.1

5.4
2.4
3.9

-1.4

-0.8
-0.4

10.9
3.3

-3.4
-0.3
4.2

-4.0
0.6
0.2
0.8
2.6
6.7
0.8
2.7
9.1
3.1
5.7

-1.1
6.8

6.6
1.3

-1.4
-3.2
-1.0
2.7

-3.0
4.9
4.2
6.5
7.4
3.2
1.3
1.0
7.4

PERCENT CHANGE1
. . .
. . .
. . .

4.3

-1.2
-1.8
5,9
3,6
2.3
1.2

-1.6

1.3
0.7

6.2
3.6
1.3
1.2
2.1
0.4

-1.5

-0.4

0.7
4.6

0.2
1,0

0.1
?.4
4.4
7.7
9.8
5.4
1.8
1.6
6.0

0.5
2.6
3.4
4.7
6.6
6.3
2.6
2.5
5.0

. . .
. . .

1947.
from annu a l

5.5
3.9

4.8
1.8
1.8

...

-0.4
-0.4
12.9

63-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN UNIT LABOF COST,
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCEN!T)
TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY

. . .
. . .

79.9
63.8
87.7
90.6
90.2
91.9
94.0
93.0
93.0
93.1

IV Q

858. INDE>{ OF OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR, TOTAL PRIVATE NONFARM
(1967*100)

...
...

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

6.6

-4.4
15.4

-0.6

-0.2

. • •

-0.9

3.8
0.7
1.1
5.0
0.9

93.4
98.0
98.7
102.1
103.1
102.0
105.9
109.1
114.1

5.1
2.5
2.7
0.3
0.7
3.7
3.8
2.9

• •.
70.3
72.6
73.3
71.6
76.6
78.8
80.5
82.6

3.9
0.2
3.5
8.3
1.1
2.3

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1*72....,
1973
1974
1975

5.0
1.1
3.5
1.4




6.9

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

4.8
2.4
2.6
1.8
-0.1
3.1
3.4
3.9

2.8

• •.
69.3
73.0
74.2
71.3
75.5
77.6
80.6
82.3

-3.6

73.4
72.9
74.6
74.8
78.8
80.8
80.0
85.1
87.9
91.4

5.4
2.8
1.6
2.8

...

0.5
6.2

1955
1956.....
1957
1956
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

3.7
3.1
2.7
2.9

...

-0.8
22.6
-1.9

9.4
0.3
2.0
5.6
1.4
5.6
4.6

1.3
1.8
2.2
4.4
2.3
0.6
5.4
4.3
4.0
2.9

-0.6

...

4.6

...
...
7,0

3.0
2.2
4.2
1.9
3.3
4.0
3.4
4.8
2.3

0.1
2.9
1.2
5.2
3.3
6.5
4.2
4.8
2.5

UNIT LABOR COST ,
(INDEX:

...
...
...

57.0
58.5
60.5
64.7
66.1
67.6
69.7
70.4

•«•

2.0
1.7
2.?
4.4
2.1
0.2
6.2
5.0
2.0

1945.....
1946
1947
1948
1949.,..,
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

•••
•..
55.6
57.8
60.0
64.2
65.6
68.1
69.2
69.8

4.4
1.1
9.4
3.3
3.0
4.7
0.8
5.7

III Q

CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD I N OUTPUT PER MANHOUR,
TOTAL. PRIVATE ECONOMY
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

1945
1946...,.
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

3.8
3.4
9.0
2.4
4.1
3.6
1.1
5.9

-1.5

AVERAGE

II Q

...
...
...
3.4
6.5
5.4
3.8
2.8
2.4
4.3

...

...
4.8
3.3
8.2
3.5
2.2
3.6
3.2

1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

2

1 Q

PRIVATE ECONOMY

770-C . 4-GUARTER PERCENT CHANGFS I N OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR/
TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY
(ANNUAL KATE, PERCENT)
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954... ••

Annual

IV Q

III Q

50.4
52.4
54.1
59.0
60.4
62.8
65.1
65.8

...

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958... # #
1959... 1 1
1960... t a
1 9 6 1 . . . 11
1962... m t
1963... . m
1964... . .
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

IIQ

Year

(August 1975)

data.
1 figures are averages of the centered changes.

111

G.

Experimental Data and Analyses

Composite Indexes

(NOV.) (OCT.)

UULYI (AUO.)

(JULYHAPP..!
P

I l l :M| I I I I I I

(MAYHFEB.)

T

P

(NOV.) (NOV.)

T

I I I ll*;Ff I I I I I I I 111( I I I I I m i l l

I I I I I I II I II I I I I

III

IN

Ml TTT TTT TTI TTT I l l l l l l

Ratio
Scale

190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80

Index: 1967=100

Old Indexes of 12 Leading Indicators
(series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17,
19, 23, 29, 31, 113)

810. Reverse trend adjusted1

70
- I 60

1

811.

140
130
120
110

Prior to trend adjustment

100
90
80
70

lli11 11111mi 111111111111111111111111111111 n
1111111111111111111
111 111
11
1 n 11111 u
1948 1949 19S0 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Series 810:

Jan.

Feb.

155.9
167.8
152.8

158.8
170.2
153.0

161.3
172.3
rl51.7

121.5
125.1
108.9

123.3
126.3
108.6

124.8
127.5
rlO7.3

1973-

19741975Series 811:

197319741975-

Mar.

June

Aug.
167.3
177.9

Sept.
165.1
172.2

Oct.
166.8
168.5

Nov.
168.1
162.6

r!56.9

162.9
175.6
rl58.4

July
165.6
164-3
176.0 W>179.6
162.3 ^167.0

123.1
127.4
rllO.5

125.1
128.9
rill.2

126.2
125.7
128.7 |H>130.8
113.5
116.3

127.0
129.2

124.9
124.5

125.7
121.4

126.2
116.7

Apr.
159.7
173.0

May

Oarrent high values are indicated by [H)$ "r" indicates revised.
iReverse trend adjusted index contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators (series 820).
2
Excludes series 16, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available.

112




Dec.
165.6
158.9
123.9
113.6

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the current
business contraction beginning with the tentative peak date, N o v e m b e r 1973.
(This date is based on the deflated composite index of coincident i n d i c a t o r s
BCD series 825.) To set the current cyclical movements into historical perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods are shown.
Th e
graphic presentations of the data for the selected periods are superimposed
according to a special chart design, explained below:

1. The objective of the chart is to compare
the pattern of the current business con[braction with corresponding historical
patterns to facilitate critical assessment
of the amplitude, duration, and severity of
the indicators' current movements.

This number indicates latest calendar month of
d a t a plot ted
( 1 2 = December.)

Actual
data

Deviations
from
preced.
peak

Series number,^dries title

for

current
cycle

-7+5

Designations:
"Coincident, "
"Leading," "Lagging," and "Unclassified" indicate
the N B E R timing
classification
for the series.

T h i s scale shows
deviations ( p e r cent differences)
f r o m reference
peak l e v e l s .

• 128

• 124.
2. The vertical line represents reference
peak dates. The current business contraction, beginning with the tentative business
cycle high in November 1973, and the corresponding historical periods, beginning
with July 1957 and November 1969, are presented so that their peak dates are placed
along this vertical line.

120

T h i s scale shows
a c t u a l series
units and applies
only to the current
b u s i n e s s cycle
(heavy solid line ).

• 112

-10
3. The horizontal line represents the level
of data at the current tentative business
cycle high (November 1973). It also represents data levels at the selected earlier
business cycle peaks, July 1957 and November
1969.
The peak levels are aligned along
the horizontal line f o r each
business
recession depicted.

4. For most series, deviations
(percent
differences) from the current peak level
are computed and plotted.
For
series
measured in percent units (such as the unemployment rate), these units (actual data)
are plotted rather than deviations from
reference peak levels. The table on the
right shows the numerical values of these
deviations.

5. For series that move counter to moveaents in general business activity (e.g.,
yhe unemployment rate), an inverted scale
.s used; i.e., declines in data are shown
is upward movements in the plotted lines,
md increases in data, as downward movelents in plotted lines.

-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference peaks

+18

This scale measures
t i m e in m o n t h s
before (negative
after
B side) a n d
( p o s i t i v e side)
b u s i n e s s cycle
peak dates.

6. In each chart four curves are shown. One curve describes the current business contraction (heavy solid line
). Two curves describe the 1957 and 1969 b u s i n e s s recessions
(starred line:*-*and knotted line: _ ^ , , respectively). The final curve ( b r o k e n line
) represents the median pattern of the five post-World War II recessions (tho s e with
peaks in 1948, 1953, 1957, I960 and 1969). Deviations from reference peaks for all postWorld War II recession periods and the preceding year are presented in the adjacent table.
In addition, actual values are shown for the current period.

7. The business cycle (reference) peaks used in these charts are those designated by the
National Bureau of Economic Research as follows: Nov.l94£(lVQ 194-8), July 1953(1110 1953)
July 1957 (IIIQ 1957), May I960 (IIQ I960), Nov. 1969 (IVQ 1969).

JOTE: November 1973 is not designated a business cycle peak. This tentative, benchmark date for the current business recession has been
selected on the basis of the performance pattern of the deflated composite index of five coincident indicators - B^D s e r i e s ! ^ It s £ £ s
as a means of current economic analysis and may be changed as more information becomes available.




113

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

T
825.

Deviations
from
preced.
peak

111

Five coincident indicators,
deflated
I

Actual
data
for

current
cycle

MOS.
FPOr'
REF.
PEAK

Deviations
from
preced.
peak

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I TTTTTTTTTTTTp
I I I II

DEVIATIONS
FROM

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

11/73

no NTH
AMD
YEAR

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls

Actu
* data
for

curre
cycl

SERIES 825
1967=100
- 2 .k

138.8

7/74

-2
-3
-k
-7

.6
.k
.2
.0

138.5
137. k
136.2
132.2

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
Ik
15
16

-10
-12
-13
-Ik

.1
.2
.0
.3

127.9
124.9
123.7
121.8

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18
19
20

-Ik
-13
-12
-12

.2
.9
.7
.9

122.0
122. k
124.2
123.9

4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75

8
g
in
11
12
• 140

• 135

SERIES
130
8

• 125

• 120

9
10
11
12

kl
THOUS.

0 .7

78479

7/74

1 .0
1 .2
1 .2
0 .6

78661
78844
78865
78404

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
Ik
15
16

-0
-0
-1
-2

.3
.9
.5
.0

77690
77227
76708
76368

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18
19
20

-2
-1
-2
-2

.0
.9
.1
.0

76349
76428
76264
76352

4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75

43. Unemployment rate, total
(inverted)

I

|

SERIES

47. Industrial production index
8

125.5

7/74

-1
-1
-2
-k

.8
.5
.1
.5

125.2
125.6
124.8
121.7

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
lit
15
16

-7
-10
-12
-13

.9
.8
.8
.7

117.4
113.7
111.2
110.0

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18
19
20

-13
-13
-13
-13

.8
.9
.5
.1

109.9
109.8
110.3
110.8

4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75

11/73
SERIES

M M , , 1 M M , I n n

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference peaks

+24

MONTH

AND
YEAR

43
PERCENT

8

5 .3

5 .3

1/lk

9
10
11
12

5 .4
5 .8
6 .0
6 .6

5 .4
5 .8
6 .0
6 .6

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

7 .2
8 .2
8 .2
8 .7

7 .2
8 .2
8 .2
8 .7

11/lk
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18
19
20

.9
.2
.6
.4

.9
.2
.6
.4

4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75

00 CD 00 00

I,,,,

-12-6

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

Actual
data
(percent)

-I 3

- 1 .6

ACTUAL
DATA
FROM

\

47
1967=100

9
10
11
12

MOS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK

Coincident

195

-12

1111111111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference peaks

NOTE: TABLES SHOWING DEVIATIONS FROM PEAK LEVELS FOR ALL POST-WORLD WAR II CYCLES ARE SHOWN IN THE JANUARY 1975 ISSUE FOR THESE SERIES.
NOVEMBER 3 973 IS MOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK. THIS TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATE FOR THE CURRENT BUSINESS RECESSION HAS BEEN SELEC
ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE DEFLATED COMPOSITE INDEX OF FIVE COINCIDENT INDICATORS--BCD SERIES 825. IT SERVES AS A
MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

114




G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
111

Deviations
from
perced.
peak

Actual
data
for

current
cycle

DEVIQRTRS
F ROM A T I O N S
REF.
FROM
PEAK
11/73

CURRENT QUARTER
ACTUAL
AND
DATA
YEAR

SERIE 5 205
B I L . DOL .

• 855

3

- 2 .7

823 . 1 1 1 1 / 7 4

4

- 4 .9

801* .0

1 V/7U

5

- 7 .8

780 .0

1/75

6

- 7 .4

783 . 1

1 1/75

MOS.
F ROM
REF,
PEAK

ACTUAL
DATA
FROM

11/73

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

MONTH

AMD
YEAR

SERIES 111*
PERCENT
7.75

7.75

lllk

9
10
11
12

8.74
8.36

8.74
8.36
7.24
7.58

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

- 3

13
14
15
16

7.18
6.49
5.58
5.54

7.18
6.49
5.58

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

- 2

.69
,32
.19
6.16

4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75

-1 1

17
18
19
20

6.16

8/75

6.39

MOS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK

48.

Man-hours in nonagricultural
establishments

DEVIATIONS
FROM

11/73
SERIES

781c. Change in consumer price index,
6-month spans, centered
CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

MONTH

AND
YEAR

48

BIL.M-HRS.
8

-0.3

151.25

lllk

9
10
11
12

-0.0

-1.0

151.62
151.87
153.06
150.18

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

-2.0
-2.4
-3.6
-4.2

148.67
147.98
146.16
145.28

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17

-4.1
-4.0
-4.4
-4.5

145.50
145.64
145.01
144.85

18
19
20

MOS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK

0.1
0.9

ACTUAL
DATA
FROM

11/73

4/75
5115

6/75
7/75

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

- +6

MONTH

AMD

- +4

YEAR

SERIES 781
PCT.CHANGE
12.7

12.7

lllk

9
10
11
12

12.5
12.2
11.7

12,
12,
11,
10.4

Silk
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

8.5
7.8
6.6
6.6

8.5
7.8
6.6
6.6

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

7.6

7.6

4/75

- +2

U5

-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference peaks

+24

-J

I II1 IIIIIIIIIII

-12-6

0

+6

0

IIIIIIIII

+12

+18

+24

Months from reference peaks

OTE; TABLES SUOI/INC, DEVIATIONS FROM PEAK LEVELS FOR ALL POST-WORLD WAR II CYCLES ARE SHOWN IN THE FEBRUARY 1975 ISSUE FOR THESE SERIES.
NOVEMBER 1973 IS NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK. THIS TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATE FOR THE CURRENT BUSINESS RECESSION HAS BEEN SEIECTF.D
ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE DEFLATED COMPOSITE INDEX OF FIVE COINCIDENT INDICATORS--BCD SERIES 825
IT SERVES AS A
MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.




115

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
'I1

iiiii|iiiTi|rTii-q

MOS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK

44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15 weeks and over (inverted)
I

ACTUAL
DATA
FROM
11/73

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

SERIES

1.0

1.0

7/71*

1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2

1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2

8/71*
9/71*
10/71*
11/71*

1.0

13
11*
15
16

l.l*
1.7
2.0
2.2

l.l*
1.7
2.0
2.2

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

1.5

17
18
19
20

2.6
2.8
3.1
3.2

2.6
2.8
3.1
3.2

it/75
5/75
6/75
7/75

2.0

QRTRS DEVIFROM ATIONS
FROM
REF.
PEAK
11/73

Deviations
from
perced.
peak

18. Corporate profits after taxes,
1958 dollars

I

1*1*
PERCENT

9
10
11
12

0.5

1969

MONTH
AND
YEAR

Actuc
data
for
curre
cycle

• 60

55

i 50

CURRENT QUARTER
ACTUAL
AND
DATA
YEAR

SERIEJ5 1 8
BIL. DOL .

2.5
3

18 .5

58 .2 11I/7U

k

-1+ .5

46 .9

5

-26 .9

35 .9

1/75

6

-22 .0

38 .3

1 1/75

• 40
IV/7U

-13,0

>35
MOS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK

32. Vendor performance, companies
reporting slower deliveries

ACTUAL
DATA
FROM
11/73
SERIE

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

MONTH
AND
YEAR

S 32
PERCENT

8

72

72

7/7U

9
10
11
12

68
52
1*6
32

68
52
1*6
32

8/71*
9/71*
10/71*
11/71*

13
11+
15
16

22
18
16
17

22
18
16
17

12/71*
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18
19
20

22
21*
26
30

22
21*
26
30

U/75
5/75
6/75
7/75

DEVIATIONS
FROM
11/73

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

MOS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK

SERIES

+20
+15
+10

+ 5

10
B I L . DOL.

15.16

7/71*

30

10
11
12

0.9
5.1
-i*.O
-7.9

13.52
11*. 08
12.87
12.31*

8/71*
9/71*
10/71*
11/71*

- I 20

13
11*
15
16

1.8
-15.0
-15.1*
-11*. 6

13.61*
11.39
11.31*
11.1*1*

12/71*
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18
19
20

-2.9
-3.1
-7.9
-8.9

13.01
12.99
12.31*
12.21

i*/75
5/75
6/75
7/75

-

+25

.1957

MONTH
AND
YEAR

13.1
9

10. Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment
I

- 5

-10

•15

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference peaks

+24

—I—20

-12

-6

0

+6

+U

+18

+24

Months from reference peaks

NOTE: NOVEMBER 1973 IS NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PF.AK. THIS TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATE FOR THE CURRENT BUSINESS RECESSION HAS BEEN SELF
ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE DEFLATED COMPOSITE INDEX OF FIVE COINCIDENT INDICATORS--BCD SERIES 825. IT SERVES AS A
MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.




116

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Series
Historical
data
escriptions
issue date) issue date)

A
Accession rate, manufacturing

2
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . . *61
D61
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Capacity, manufacturers' adequacy
416
Consumer sentiment, index
435
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
D446
Inventories, manufacturers', book value
412
Inventories, manufacturers', condition of
414
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
D450
Orders, new, manufacturing, Dl
D440
Prices, selling, manufacturing, Dl
D462
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade, Dl
D460
Prices, selling, retail trade, Dl
D466
Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl
D464
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
D442
Sales, manufacturers'
410
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
D444
Automobiles
234
Expenditures, personal consumption, NIA
249
Gross auto product, constant dollars, NIA

20

74

3/75

8/68

27,43,44
46
45
45
46
45
45
47
46
47
47
47
47
46
45
46

78,84
84
84
85
84
84
85
84
85
85
85
85
85
84
85

12/74
12/74
1/75
1/75
12/74
1/75
1/75
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
1-^/74
1/75
12/74

11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68

11
18

70
72

9/74
9/74

10/69

B
Balance of payments
Balances
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current account
Current account and long-term capital
Goods and services
Goods, services and remittances
Government grants and capital transactions, net . . . .
Liabilities, liquid
Liabilities, liquid and nonliquid
Liquidity, net
Merchandise trade
Reserve position, U.S. official
Reserve transactions balance
Exports
Goods and services
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment, foreign direct, in the U.S
Investment income, military sales and services
Merchandise, adjusted
Military sales to foreigners
Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods
Orders, new, nonelectrical machinery
Securities, U.S., purchases by foreigners
Total, excluding military aid
Transportation and services, receipts
Travelers, foreign, receipts from
Imports
Goods and services
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investments abroad, U.S. direct
Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Military expenditures abroad, U.S
Securities, foreign, U.S. purchases
Total, general
Transportation and services, payments for
Travelers abroad, U.S., payments by
Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates - See Interest rates.
Banking and other capital transactions, net, BOP
Bonds-See Interest rates.
Borrowing - See Credit.
Budget - See Government.
Building - See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, ratio to consumer goods
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl . . . .
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation
Business incorporations
Business inventories - See Inventories.
Business loans - See Bank loans.
Buying policy, production materials

575
517
519
250
515
570
530
532
521
500
534
522
252
542
560
540
536
546
506
508
564
502
548
544

53
49

88
87

49

87

49,51

87

49

87

53

88

50

87

50

87

49

87

48

86

50

87

87

52

88

53

88

51

87

51
52

87

48

86

48

86

53

88

48
52

86

52

88

88

88

51
52

87

541
561
537
547
565
512
549
545
*72
112

51

87

53

88

51
52

87

*29
853
*61
D61
14
*12
13

5/69

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

7/74

49
51

253
543

575

7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
1/75
7/74

88

7/74
1/75
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
8/75
8/75
7/74
1/75
1/75
7/74

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
11/72
11/72
5/69

53

88

48

86

52

88

52

88

36,43

82

33

81

53

88

7/74

46
34

84

25,39

77

25

77

4/75
3/75
12/74
12/74
4/75
6/75
6/75

28

79

11/74

26,40

78

62

96

27,43,44 7 8 , 8 4
81

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

7/74
1/75
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
1/75
1/75
7/74
4/75
4/75

88

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
8/68#

4/69
11/68
11/68
11/68

12/74

number

Civilian labor force, total
Coincident indicators, five, Cl
Coincident indicators, five, Cl, rate of change
Coincident indicators, five, deflated, Cl
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change .

841
820
820
825
*72
112

compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Compensation of employees, NIA
Compensation of employees, as percent of national
income NIA
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
Earnings, average hourly, production workers.
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real spendable, average weekly
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Five coinciders
Five coinciders, deflated
Five coinciders, rate of change
Lagging indicators, six
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Marginal employment adjustments
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
Twelve leaders, original trend
Twelve leaders, reverse trend adjusted
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts total value
Contracts awarded for commercial and indus. bldgs. .
Expenditures, business, and machinery and
equipment sales
Housing starts
Residential structures, GPDI, constant dol., NIA . . .
Residential structures, GPDI, current dollars, N I A . . .
Consumer goods, ratio of business equipment to
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, net change
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices - See also International comparisons.
All items
All items, change in
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures, personal - See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
Corporate profits - See Profits.
Costs - See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, change in
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, net change
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, change in
Current account, balance, BOP
Current account and long-term capital, balance, BOP

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series

Charts

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) issue date)

Tables

4/72
11/68
11/68

82
81

6/75
8/75
6/74
8/75
4/75
4/75

58

92

4/75

10/72

59
16

92
71

4/75
10/74

10/72
10/69

280A

19

73

10/74

10/69

746

58

93

4/75

10/72

746C

59

93

4/75

10/72

740

58

92

1/75

6/72

740C

59

92

1/75

6/72

741

58

92

8/75

6/72

741C
859
748
749
53

59

92

8/75
8/75
10/74
10/74
8/74

6/72
10/72
6/72
6/72
7/68

8/75
8/75
6/74
8/75

11/68

60

94

37

83

65
37
36,43
33

745
745 C
280

820
825
820
830
814
815
813
816
817
811
810
*29
8
9
69
28
248
244
853
66
*113
39
781
781C
783
782
784
435

83

58

92

59

93

59

93

23

76

37

83

37

83

65
37

83

38

83

38

83

112

112

112

112

8/75
8/75
8/75
8/75
8/75
5/74
5/74

26,40

78

4/75

25
26

77
77

6/75

38

83

38

83

38

83

27

78

26

78

18

72

12

70

62

96

36

82

34,41

81

34

81

56,66

90,103

56

90

56

90

56

90

10/72
11/72

11/68
11/68

5/74
5/74
4/69

8/74
4/75
9/74
9/74
3/75
3/75
3/75
8/75

9/68#
6/72

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
11/68

10/69
11/68
10/72
10/72
11/72

56

90

45

84

7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
1/75

*10

25,39

77

4/75

9/68

112
110
*72
66
*113
39
33
517
519

33
34

36,43

81
81
82

36

82

4/75
10/74
4/75
3/75
3/75
8/75
4/75
7/74
7/74

11/72
7/64
11/72
10/72
10/72
11/72

34,41

81

34

81

33
49

81
87

49

87

625
547
546
621
616
648
647
264

55

89

14,55

71,89

39
296

34

81

17

72

D61
D11

46

34

63

97

D

26

C
Canada - See International comparisons.
Capacity, manufacturers', adequacy of
Capacity, ratio of output to
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, mfg., newly approved
Capital appropriations, newly approved, Dl
Capital consumption allowances, NIA
Capital investment - See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, net, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, net, corporate, current dollars

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

416
850
97
11
D11
296
814
35
34

45

84

62

96

27

78

26

77

63

97

17

72

31

83
80

31

80

38

1/75
8/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
10/74
8/75
8/74
8/74

11/68

10/69

1/72
1/72

Defense
Contract awards, military prime
Military expenditures abroad, U.S., BOP
Military sales to foreigners, BOP
Obligations incurred, procurement
Obligations incurred, total
Orders, new, defense products
Orders, new, defense products industries
Purchases of goods and services, NIA
Deficit-See Government.
Deflators - See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Depreciation, NIA
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing

52

88

52

88

55

89

55

89

55

89

55

4/74
7/74
7/74
4/74
4/74
8/74
8/72
10/74

9/68#
10/69

8/75
10/74

11/72
10/69

12/74
5/74

11/68

5/69
5/69

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.




117

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Diffusion indexes-Con.
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components.
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, avg. wkly., unemployment insurance . .
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Orders, new, durable goods industries
Orders, new, durable goods industries, components .
Orders, new, manufacturing
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade
Prices, selling, retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods, components .
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, retail stores
Sales, retail stores, components
Workweek, average, production workers, mfg
Workweek, average, production workers, mfg.,
components
Disposable personal income - See Income.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series

Tables

Charts

D446
D41
041
D23
D23
D47
D47
D5
D450
D6
D6
D440
019
D462
D460
D466
D464
D58
D58
D34
D442
D444
D54
054
Dl

46
64
63
64
63
47
63
46
63
47
47
47
47
64
63
46
46
64
63

D1

85
98
100
97
100
98
101
98
85
97
99
34
97
85
85
85
85
98
102
97
85
85
98
102
97

Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)

12/74
2/75

11/68

10/74

4/69

3/75
8/75
12/74
10/74

6/69
11/68

12/74
10/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
7/75

11/68
5/69
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
6/69

1/75
12/74
12/74
3/75

11/68
11/68
6/72

2/75

99

2
841
842
D446
*41
041
D41
46
860

20
60
60
46
21,41

*5
05
3
48
48
813
21
42
843
846
845
*44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
•1
D1
D1

20,39
63
20
21
65
38
20
21
60
60
60
22,43
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
20,39

64
21
62

63

74
94
94
85
75
100
98
74
96
74
98
74
74
83
74
75
94
94
94
75
75
94
75
94
75
94
74
99
97

3/75
6/75
6/75
12/74
2/75

8/68
4/72
4/72
11/68
8/68

2/75
3/75
3/75

12/74

6/75
8/75
3/75
3/75
3/75
8/75
2/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
3/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
2/75

6/69
6/69
8/68#
8/68#
8/68#
12/74
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
8/68

2/75

Equipment - See Investment, capital.
Exports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade.

Federal funds rate
Federal Government - See Government.
Final sales - See Sales.
Financial flows, sensitive, Cl
Fixed weighted price index, NIA
Foreign series - See International comparisons.
Foreign trade - See also Balance of payments.
Balance, goods and services, NIA
Balance, merchandise trade
Exports goods and services NIA
Exports, merchandise, excl. military aid shipments..
Imports, goods and services, NIA
Imports, merchandise
Net exports of goods and services, NIA
Net exports of goods and services, percent of
GNP, NIA
France - See International comparisons.
Free reserves

119

35

82

6/74

817
211

38
56

83
90

8/75
8/74

250
500
252
502
253
512
250

13
48
13
48
13
48
13

71
86
71
86
71
86
71

9/74
1/75
9/74
1/75
9/74
1/75
9/74

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

250A

19

73

9/74

10/69

93

35

82

10/74

11/72

11/73

G
Government - See also Balance of Payments and Defense.
Budget, NIA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
Government surplus or deficit, total

602
601
600
298

54
54
54
17

89
89
89
72

Government-Con.
Government grants and capital transactions, BOP
Government purchases of goods and services, NIA
FpHpral Rnvprnmpnt rnrKtant Hollars
Federal Government, current dollars
Federal Government, percent of GNP
Federa , State and local governments
National defense
State and local governments, constant dollars
State and local governments, current dollars
State and local governments, percent of GNP
Gross national product
Auto product, gross, constant dollars, NIA
GNP, constant dollars, NIA
1

E
Earnings - See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Employed persons in civilian labor force
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components.
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed . . . .
Initial claims, average weekly, unemployment
insurance
Initial claims, avg. wkly, unemployment insur., Dl . .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagric. establishments, rate of chg...
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, production workers, mfg
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed persons in civilian labor force, total . . .
Unemployment rate, both sexes, 16-19 years
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over . . . .
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present .
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate, white
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing . . . .
Workweek, production workers, mfg., components..
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing, Dl .

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

8/74
8/74
8/74
10/74

7/68#
7/68#
7/68#
10/69

CUCIul

U U VCI 1 IM ICI1 L; liUliOlOMl

UUIICMO

GNP, constant dollars, differences, NIA
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes, NIA
GNP, current dollars, NIA
GNP, current dollars, differences, NIA
GNP, current dollars, percent changes, NIA
GNP, gap (potential less actual)
GNP potential constant dollars
Per capita GNP, constant dollars, NIA
Per capita GNP, current dollars, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, differences, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, percent changes, NIA
Price ndex, fixed weighted, gross private
product, NIA
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private
product, change in, NIA
Gross private domestic investment - See Investment,
capital.

Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to number of persons
unemployed
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
Average workweek
Components
Diffusion index
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits
Residential structures, constant dollars, GPDI, NIA .
Residential structures, current dollars, GPDI, NIA . .
Residential structures, percent of GNP, GPDI, NIA .
Vacancy rate, rental housing

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
numbGr

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) issue date)

570

53

88

7/74

5/69

263
262
262A
260
264
267
266
266A

18
14
19
14
14,55
18
14
19

79
73
71
ri,89
72
71
73

10/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
10/74
10/74
10/74
10/74

11/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
11/73
10/69
10/69

18
9,18,23,
42,61

72
69,76,
95
69
69
69,76
69
69
95
95
69
69
69
69
69

8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
1/75
1/75
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74

249
*205
205B
205C
*200
200B
200C
207
206
217
215
210
210B
210C

65
9,23,42
65
61
61
9
9
9

n

211

56

90

8/74

211C

56

90

8/74

46

21

74

3/75

860

62

96

3/75

20
20,39

2/75
2/75

118

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

12/74

21
•1
D1
D1

63

74
74
99
97

28
*29
248
244
244A
857

26
26,40
18
12
19
62

78
78
72
70
73
96

4/75
4/75
9/74
9/74
9/74
5/74

6/72
4/69

9

69
69
69

8/74
8/74
8/74

10/69
10/69
10/69

16

71

10/74

10/69

19

73

10/74

10/69

58

92

4/75

10/72

59

92

4/75

10/72

58

93

4/75

10/72

59
10
10

93
69
69

4/75
8/74
8/74

10/72
10/69
10/69

10
10

69
69

9/74
9/74

10/69
10/69
6/72

12/74
8/68

2/75

10/69
10/69
10/72

1
Implicit pii cedeflator GNP
Differ ?nnps
Percent changes
Imports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade.

210
210B
210C

Compensation of employees, NIA
280
Compensation of employees, as percent of
national income, NIA
280A
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
745
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
745C
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
746
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
746C
Disposable personal income, constant dollars, NIA
225
Disposable personal income, current dollars, NIA . . .
224
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant
dollars NIA
227
Disposable personal income, per capita, curr. dot., NIA 226
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
740
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm, percent change
740C
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
741
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers.
priva e nonfarm, percent change
741C
Earnings, real spendable, average weekly
859
Income on foreign investments in U.S., BOP
543
542
Income on U.S. investments abroad, BOP
Interest net NIA
288
288A
Interest, net, percent of national income, NIA
Investment income, military sales and services, BOP . 540
Investment income of foreigners, military
541
expenditures and services, BOP
National income, NIA
220
*52
Personal income, monthly
222
Personal income, NIA
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation
adjustment, NIA
286
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation
286A
adjustment, percent of national income, NIA

58

92

1/75

59

92

1/75

6/72

58

92

8/75

6/72

59
58
52
52
16
19
51

92
92
88
88
72
73
87

8/75
8/75
1/75
1/75
10/74
10/74
7/74

6/72
10/72
5/69
5/69
10/69
10/69
5/69

51
10
23,42
10

87
69
76
69

7/74
8/74
8/74
8/74

5/69
10/69
7/68
10/69

16

72

10/74

10/69

19

73

10/74

10/69

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.




9/74

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Income-Con.
Proprietors' income, NIA
Proprietors' income, pet. of national income, NIA . .
Rental income of persons, NIA
Rental income of persons, percent of national
income, NIA
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial materials prices, Dl
Industrial production - See also International comparisons.
U.S., components
U.S., Dl
U.S., index
U.S., rate of change
Insured unemployment
Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur. . .
Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur., Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net, NIA
Interest, net, as percent of national income, NIA
Interest rates
Business loans, short-term, bank rates
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, residential
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Inventories
Business inventories, change in, NIA
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total percent of GNP
Finished goods, book value, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales, ratio, mfg. and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Inventory valuation adjustment - See Profits.
Manufacturers', book value
Manufacturers', condition of
Manufacturing and trade, book value
Manufacturing and trade, change in
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies, manufacturers', change in,
book value
Materials purchased, higher inventories
Production materials, buying policy
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing, Dl . . . .
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . .
Construction contracts, total value
Construction expenditures, business, and machinery
and equipment sales
Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods
Gross private domestic investment, NIA
Equipment, producers' durable
Inventories, business, change in - See Inventories.
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, current dollars
Nonresidential, total, percent of GNP
Structures, nonresidential
Structures, residential, constant dollars
Structures, residential, current dollars
Structures, residential, percent of GNP
Total

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

282
282A
284

16

71

19

73
71

284A
748
749
53
*23
D23
D23

19
59

D47
D47
*47
47
*5
D5
45
288
288A
*67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115

133
136
137
138
132
781
135
123
126
127
128
121
122
•47
125
143
146
147
148
142
19
145

271
275
246
245
245A
65
851
815
412
414
*71
•31
D450
20
37
26
97
11
D11
814
9
8

16

73
93

59

93

23

76

30,40

79
100
97

63

Historical
Series
escriptions
data
issue date) issue date)

10/74
10/74
10/74

10/69
10/69
10/69

10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
10/74

10/69
6/72
6/72
7/68
4/69

10/74

4/69*

101

64

98

23,42 67

76,103

65

20,39

74

63
22

75

16
19

72
73

98

3/75
3/75
11/74

11/68
11/68

6/75
8/75
3/75
10/74
10/74

6/69
6/69
6/69
10/69
10/69
12/74
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64

36,43

82

35

82

35

82

36

82

35
36
35

82
82
82

35

82

7/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74

66
66
66
66
66
56,66
66

103
103
103
103
103
90,103
103

11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
7/75
11/74

9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
5/69
9/72

7/74
1/74
1/74
7/74
1/74
1/74
3/75
1/74

10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72

67

103

67

103

67
67

104
104

67
67
23,42,67
67

104
103
76,103
104

68

104

68
68
68
68
68
68

104
104
104
104
104
104

15

71

15

71

18

72

12,28

70,78

19

73

29

79

62

96

38

83

45

84

45

84
79

29,43
28,40
47

78
85

28

79

28

78
79

28
27
26

78
77

63

97

38
26

83
77

25

77

10/72
11/68
10/72

11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
12/74
11/74

10/74
10/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
4/74
12/74
8/75

10/69
10/69

1/75
1/75
12/74
12/74
12/74

11/68
11/68
2/69
2/69
11/68

4/74
4/75
11/74

9/68
12/74
12/74

10/69
10/69
9/68
2/69

5/74
5/74
5/74
8/75
6/75

69
853

27

78

62

96

8/74
3/75

9/68#
11/68

243

12

70

9/74

10/69

247
241
241A
242
248
244
244A
240

18
12

72
70

19
12

73
70

18

72

12
19

70
73

12

70

9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

nvestment, capital-Con.
Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense . . .
Plant and equipment, contracts and orders
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures . . .
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures, Dl
nvestment, foreign, BOP
Foreign direct investments in the U.S
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Income on foreign investments in the U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investment income, U.S., military sales and services .
U.S. direct investments abroad
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
taly - See International comparisons.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

24
*10
*61
D61

Charts

Tables

26

77

25,39
27,43,44

77

78,84

46

84

560
564
543
542

53

88

53

88

52

88

52

88

541
540
561
565

51

87

51

87

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
issue date) issue date)

8/74
4/75
12/74
12/74

9/68
9/68
11/68
11/68

7/74
7/74
1/75
1/75

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

8/74
8/74
8/75

7/68
11/68
10/72

53

88

53

88

68
*62
63

32

80

32,43
32

80

63C
•17

32
30,41

80
80

8/75
8/74

10/72
11/68

830
3

37
20

83
74

8/75
3/75

11/68

530

50

87

7/74

5/69

532
14
521

50
34
49

87
81
87

7/74
4/75
7/74

5/69

48
48
813

21
65
38

74

3/75
3/75
8/75

8/68#
8/68#

83

85
102

33
33

81
81

7/75
7/75

10/72
10/72

103
33
118

33
33
36

81
81
82

7/75
4/75
6/74

7/64

26

77

25,39

77

55

89

8/74
4/75
8/74
8/72
8/74

J
Japan - See International comparisons.
l_
.abor cost per unit of gross product
.abor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
.abor cost per unit of output, total private economy . . . .
_abor cost per unit of output, total private economy,
percent change
_abor cost, price per unit of
Labor force - See Employment and unemployment,
.agging indicators, six, Cl
.ayoff rate, manufacturing
Leading indicators - See Composite indexes.
Liabilities, liquid, to all foreigners, BOP
Liabilities, liquid and certain nonliquid, to foreign
official agencies, BOP
Liabilities of business failures
Liquidity balance, net, BOP
Loans - See Credit.

80

M
Machinery - See Investment, capital.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments, rate of chg. .
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments and Foreign
trade.
Military - See Defense.
Money supply, change in
Money supply (Ml)
Money supply plus time deposits (M2)
Money supply, time deposits and deposits at
nonbank thrift institutions (M3)
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, residential

10/72

N
National defense - See Defense.
National Government - See Government.
National income - See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
Defense products
Defense products industries
Durable goods industries
Components
Diffusion index
Export orders, durables except autos
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI, NIA
Constant dollars, total
Current dollars, total
Percent of GNP, total
Structures

24
*10
648
647
*6
D6
D6
506
508
D440

55

25,39

77

63

99
97

48

86

48
46

86
84

247
241
241A
242

18
12
19

72
70
73

12

70

9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74

121

67

104

1/74

10/74
8/75
8/75
12/74

9/68
9/68
9/68#
9/68

8/68#
11/68

10/69
10/69
10/69

0

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders - See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Output, labor cost per unit of
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy, change in . .
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
Output to capacity, manufacturing
Overtime hours of production, mfg., avg. weekly

*62
770
770C
858
850
21

32,43

80

58

93

59

93

58

93

62

96

20

74

8/74
8/75
8/75
8/75
8/74
2/75

11/68
10/72
10/72
6/68
12/74

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.




119

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Historical
Series
data
jescriptions
issue date) (issue date!

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Historical
Series
data
escriptions
issue date! issue date)

ales
il consumption expenditures, NIA
Automobiles
Durable goods
Durable goods, except autos
Nondurable goods
Services
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income - See Income.
Plant and equipment - See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Business expenditures for, Dl
Contracts and orders for
Potential gross national product
Price indexes
Consumer - See also International comparisons.
All items
All items, change in
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Deflators, NIA
Fixed weighted, gross private product
Fixed weighted, gross private product, change in
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Differences
Percent changes
Industrial materials
Industrial materials, components
Industrial materials, Dl
Labor cost, price per unit of
Stock - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Wholesale
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Industrial commodities, change in
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components
Manufactured goods, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime rate charged by banks
Producers' durable equipment, GPDI, NIA
Production - See Industrial production and GNP.
Production materials, buying policy
Production of business equip, to consumer goods, ratio . .
Productivity
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy,
change in
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ. . .
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment, NIA
Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment,
percent of national income, NIA
Corporate, undistributed, plus inventory valuation
adjustment, NIA
Manufacturing, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, net, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to income originating in corp. bus. ..
Proprietors' income, NIA
Proprietors' income, percent of national income, NIA . .
Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting
higher inventories

Rental income of persons, NIA
Rental income of persons, as percent of national income,
NIA
Reserve position, U.S., BOP
Reserve transactions balance, BOP
Reserves, free
Residential structures - See also Housing.
Residential structures, constant dollars, GPDI, NIA
Residential structures, current dollars, GPDI, NIA
Residential structures, percent of GNP, GPDI, NIA

Salaries - See Compensation.

234
232
233
236
237
231
230
230A

61
061
10
206

781
781C
783
782
784

9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

78,84
84
77
95

12/74
12/74
4/75
1/75

11/68
11/68
9/68

90,103
90
90
90
90

7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75

5/69
5/69
5/69
>/69
5/69

8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
10/74

10/69
10/69
10/69
4/69

10/74
8/74

4/69
11/68

11
11
11
11
11,18
11
19
27,43,44
25,39
61
56,66
.6

211
211C
210
210B
210C
23
D23
D23
17

13
30,41

90
90
19
19
>9
79
100
97
80

19
D19

30,40
63

79
97

10/74
10/74

5/69
5/69

75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75

6/69
6/69
6/69
i/69
6/69
i/69

64
30,41

91
91
91
80,91
91
80,91
102
98
80

7/75
8/74

6/69
11/68

85
85
85

12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
6/74
9/74

11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/73
10/69

11/74
3/75

12/74
11/68

8/75
8/75

10/72
6/68

8/74
8/74
10/74

1/72
7/68
10/69

10/74

10/69

750
752
751
55
55C
58
D58
D58

D462
D460
D466
D464
109
243

47
47
47
47
36

26
853
770
770C

30
30,41
16

294
D34
D442

15
816
22
282
282A

17
63
46
30
38
30
16
19

10/74
1/75
12/74
8/74
8/75
8/74
10/74
10/74

10/69
11/68
3/69

Final sales, NIA
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade . . .
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturers' sales, total value
Manufacturing and trade sales
Manufacturing and trade sales, net, Dl
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
iving, NIA
Capital consumption allowances
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving to disposable personal income . . .
Profits, undistributed corporate, plus inventory
valuation adjustment
Surplus or deficit, government
Securities purchases, BOP
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Selling prices - See Prices, selling.
Sensitive financial flows, Cl
Shipments, ratio of manufacturers' unfilled orders to .
State and local government - See Government.
Stock prices - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
rplus - See Government.

Transportation and other services, payments, BOP
Transportation and other services, receipts, BOP
Travel
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad, BOP
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S., BOP . .
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields

Unemployment
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed,
ratio
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur. . .
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur., Dl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Persons unemployed, civilian labor force
Unemployment rates
Both sexes, 16-19 years
Females, 20 years and over
15 weeks and over
Insured, average weekly
Males, 20 years and over
Married males, spouse present
Negro and other races
Total
White
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change in
Unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods indus. .
United Kingdom - See International comparisons.

534
522
93
248
244
244A

19
50
49
35

10/74
7/74
7/74
10/74

18
12
19

9/74
9/74
9/74

410
56
D444
59
h
54
D54
D54

27
45
24,42
46
24
24,42
64

102
98

10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
12/74

10/69
10/69

8/74
1/75
12/74
12/74
4/75
3/75

9/68#
11/68
2/69
11/68

3/75

6/72

10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74

10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68

120

6/72

296
290
292
854

17
17
17
62

294
298

17
17

10/74
10/74

10/69
10/69

3
53

7/74
7/74

5/69
5/69

8/75
8/74

9/68

30,40

10/74
10/74

5/69
5/69

549
548

52
52

1/75
1/75

5/69
5/69

545
544
114
115

52
52
35
35

7/74
7/74
6/74
6/74

5/69
5/69
7/64
7/64

20,39
63
20
60

3/75
6/75
8/75
3/75
6/75

6/69
6/69
8/68#
4/72

22,41
60

6/75
6/75
6/75
3/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75

4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72

27
29
12

8/74
8/74
8/74

9/68
9/68
9/68

5/74
11/74

10/72
12/74

7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75

6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69

7/75
2/75

6/69
8/68

72
72
72

817
852

'19
D19

860
*5
D5
3
843
846
845
*44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
96
25
852

50
60
22,43

10/69
5/69
11/72

10/69
10/69

Wages and salaries - See Compensation.
West Germany - See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Industrial commodities, change in
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components
Manufactured goods, Dl
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Workweek of production workers, mfg., components .
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl .

857
32

750
752
751
55
55C
58
D58
D58
•1
D1
D1

57
57
31,57
57
31,57
64
20,39

91
91
91
80,91
91
80,91
102
98
74
99
97

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and Ni A, national income and product account.




7/68
2/69

7/68
10/69
10/69
Vacancy rate in rental housing
Vendor performance

284A

270
274
273
57
851

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Jeries are listed below according to the sections of this report
n which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
inly and do not reflect relationships or order among series.
>ee "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide" to find chart
nd table page numbers for each series and the issues in
riiich historical data and series descriptions appeared.
M" following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q"
idicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
xcept when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
and of quarter). Following each source is an indication (A1,
i3, etc.) of the charts and tables in which that series appears,
hese charts and tables are listed in the table of contents.
D" preceding a series number indicates the series is a
iffusion index. In section 6, asterisks (*) are used to
idicate series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of
yclical indicators. These series are shown separately in chart
8.

233.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
except automobiles, in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A3)

234.

Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

236.

Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable
goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

237.

Personal consumption expenditures, services, in
current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

240.

Gross private domestic investment, total (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A4)

241.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)

\ National Income and Product
Gross national product in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, E5)

241A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

05.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, E1, E5)

242.

10.

Implicit price deflator, gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(Al)

243.

15.

Per capita gross national product in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(Al)

00.

17.

!0.

!2.

4.

Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
National income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

244.

Personal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau*of Economic Analysis
(A2)
Disposable personal income in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

260.

Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)

262.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A6)

262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(All)
263.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

264.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6, D3)

266.

State and local government purchases of goods
and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)

266A. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(AH)
267.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)

State and local government purchases of goods and
services, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A 10)

270.

Final sales, durable goods (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

271.

Change in business inventories, durable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

273.

Final sales (series 205 minus series 246), in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A10)

274.

Final sales, nondurable goods, (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

275.

Change in business inventories, nondurable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

280.

Compensation of employees (Q).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)

Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all
industries (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4, B4)

245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
246.

Imports of goods and services; national income and
product accounts (Q).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5)

Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)

244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures as a percent of gross national product
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
245.

253.

Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 1958 dollars
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A 10)

5.

Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

6.

Per capita disposable personal income in current
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)

247.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

7.

Per capita disposable personal income in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)

248.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

3.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

249.

Gross auto product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

)A. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(Al 1)

250.

I.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A3, A10)

250A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(Al 1)

I.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

252.

280A. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(All)
282.




Exports of goods and services; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5)

of Com(A8)

282A. Proprietors' income as a percent of national income
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)
284.

Net exports of goods and services; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5)

Proprietors' income (Q).-Department
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Rental income of persons (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

284A. Rental income of persons as a percent of national
income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(All)
286.

Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A8)

286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)

121

TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued

15.

39.

Percent of consumer installment loans delinquen
days and over (EOM).-American Bankers As:
ation; (Bimonthly since December 1964)

Net interest (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
(B5)

*16.

40.

288A. Net interest as a percent of national income ( Q ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)

Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5, B8)

Unemployment rate, married males, spouse pre
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor St
tics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Census

*17.

Index of price per unit of labor cost-ratio, index
of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and
supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of
output (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)

*41.

Number of employees on nonagricultural payi
establishment survey (M).-Department of U
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3,

42.

Total number of persons engaged in nonagricul
activities, labor force survey (M).-Departmen
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Departmei
Commerce, Bureau of the Census

*43.

Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Departmei
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1,

*44.

Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (I
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1,

45.

Average weekly insured unemployment rate, !
programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpi
Administration

46.

Index of help-wanted advertising in newsp;
(M).-The Conference Board

*47.

Index of industrial production (M).-Board of
ernors of the Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (I
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1

288.

290.

Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

292.

Personal saving (Q).-Department
Bureau of Economic Analysis

294.

Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

18.

Corporate profits after taxes in 1958 dollars ( Q ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)

296.

Capital consumption allowances, corporate and
noncorporate (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

*19.

Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks ( M ) . Standard and Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8, E3, F3)

20.

298.

Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories
of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)

21.

Average weekly overtime hours of production
workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

of

Commerce,
(A9)

B Cyclical Indicators
22.

Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating
incorporate business (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

*23.

Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)

Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

24.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).-Department of
Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B1, B8, E3)

Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)

25.

Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)

48.

26.

Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M).-National Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)

*52.

*1.

Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)

2.

Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

3.

*5.

*6.

8.

9.

Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
Index of construction contracts, total value
(M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3)
Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (B3)

11.

Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B3, B8)

Index of net business formation (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3, B8)

13.

Number of new business incorporations ( M ) . - D u n
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)

14.

122

Current liabilities of business failures
and Bradstreet, Inc.




(M).-Dun
(B6)

53.

Wage and salary income in mining, manufacti
and construction (M).-Department of Comnr
Bureau of Economic Analysis

*54.

Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-De
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8, E3

New private housing units started, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)

*29.

Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)

55.
*31.

Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census
(B4, B8)

Index of wholesale prices, industrial commoi
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S
tics
(B5,

*56.

Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(B4)

Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Departmei
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bi
of the Census
(B2

57.

Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q).-Dc
ment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analys

58.

Index of wholesale prices, manufactured ;
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S
tics
(B5, D4, E2

59.

Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (M).-Depart
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

*61.

Business expenditures for new plant and equipi
total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Buree
Economic Analysis
(B3, B8, C1

*62.

Index of labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing-ratio, index of compensatic
employees in manufacturing (the sum of wage
salaries and supplements to wages and salarif
index of industrial production, manufaci
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
nomic Analysis, and the Board of Governors (
Federal Reserve System
(B(

33.

Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference Board.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3, E3)

*12.

of Comnr
(B2

28.

32.
*10.

Personal income (M).-Department
Bureau of Economic Analysis

Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies ( M ) . Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)

34.

Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars ( Q ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)

35.

Net cash flow, corporate, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

37.

Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of
purchased materials (M).-National Association of
Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B4)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued
63.

118.

Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages
(M).-Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)

119.

Federal funds rate (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

*200.

Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in
section A.

*205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.

245.

Change in business inventories (GNP component)
(Q). See in section A.

810.

Twelve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted
composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 3 1 , and 113) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

811.

Twelve leading indicators-composite index prior to
reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10,
12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 3 1 , and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

813.

Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and
commercial construction put in place) ( M ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)

Marginal employment adjustments-leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) ( M ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

814.

Capital investment commitments-leading composite
index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) ( M ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)

815.

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting Jarge commercial banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6, B8)

Inventory investment and purchasing-leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 3 1 , and 37)
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

816.

Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus
currency) [M1] (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

817.

Index of unit labor cost, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5)

65.

Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)

66.

Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally
adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted
figure for previous month to obtain current figure
(B6)

*67.

Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities
(Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6, B8)
Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product
(1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of
current-dollar compensation of employees to gross
corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

*71.

*72.

85.

93.

Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)

96.

Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)

97.

Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
(EOQ).-The Conference Board. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)

02.

Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's [M2]
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)

03.

Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M3] (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)

09.

Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)

10.

Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
in credit markets (Q).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

12.

Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)

13.

Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)

5.

Yield on long-term
Department

6.

Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).—First National City Bank of New York and
Treasury Department
(B6)

Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 4 1 , 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7, E5)

825.

Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index
(includes series 4 1 , 43, 47, 52D, and 56D) ( M ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

830.

Six lagging indicators-composite index (includes
series 44, 6 1 , 62, 67, 7 1 , 72) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

C Anticipations and Intentions
61.

410.




D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)

D Other Key Indicators
55.

Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M). See in section B.

58.

Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
See in section B.

211.

Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D4)

250.

Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

252.

Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

253.

Imports of goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

264.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
national defense (Q). See in section A.

500.

Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series
512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)

502.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(DD

Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD

Manufacturers'
inventories, total
book value
(EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD

414.

Percent of total book value of inventories held by
manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less
percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

(CD
416.

Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12
months, less percent classifying existing capacity as
excessive (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(C1)

Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(CD

D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)

Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries (Q). See in section B.

412.

bonds (M).-Treasury
(B6)

Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(B6)

Sensitive financial flows-leading composite index
(includes series 33, 85, 112, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

820.

Net change in consumer installment debt (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8)

4.

Profitability-leading composite index (includes series
16, 17, and 19) (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

435.

123

TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued

506.

Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods
except motor vehicles and parts (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)

508.

Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery
(M).-McGraw-Hill Publications Company, Economics
Department
(D1)

512.
515.

517.

519.

521.

522.

530.

532.

534.

546.

Military sales to foreigners; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

748.

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all indu
tries-first year average (mean) changes (Q).
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(DE

547.

U.S. military expenditures abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

749.

548.

Receipts from transportation and other services; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all indu
tries-average (mean) changes over life of contrai
(Q).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Stati
tics
(DE

750.

Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M).
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D^

549.

Payments for transportation and other services; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

751.

Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feec
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Sti
tistics
(D^

General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)

560.

Foreign direct investments in the U.S.; U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(D2)

752.

Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M).
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D^

Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

561.

770.

Index of output per man-hour, total private econom
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labc
Statistics
(Q!

Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

U.S. direct investments abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

564.

Foreign purchases of U.S. securities; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

781.

Index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Departmei
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4, F

Balance on current account and long term capital;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

565.

782.

Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Department (
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D'

Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

U.S. purchases of foreign securities; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

570.

783.

Index of consumer prices, commodities less foe
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labi
Statistics
(D'

Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

Government grants and capital transactions, net; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

575.

Banking and other capital transactions, net; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

784.

Index of consumer prices, services (M).-Departmei
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D^

Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all
foreigners, total outstanding; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

600.

Federal Government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

841.

Total civilian labor force, labor force
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
tics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau
Census

surve
Stati
of th
(Df

601.

Federal Government receipts; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

842.

Total civilian employment, labor force
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
tics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau
Census

surve
Stati
of tr
(D(

843.

Number of persons unemployed, labor force
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
tics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau
Census

sun/E
Stati
of tr
(Dl

844.

Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over, labi
force survey (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau i
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerc
Bureau of the Census
(D!

Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding
military grants) to foreign official agencies, total
outstanding; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding
military grants; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

602.

Federal Government expenditures; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

616.

Defense Department obligations incurred, total,
excluding military assistance (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

621.

Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D3)

536.

Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

537.

Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

625.

845.

U.S. investment income, military sales, and other
services exports, excluding military grants; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M).—Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over, lab
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commen
Bureau of the Census
(D

647.

New orders, defense products industries ( M ) . Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D3)

846.

648.

New orders, defense products (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)

Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years of ai
labor force survey (M).—Department of Labi
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(C

847.

740.

Index of average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Unemployment rate, white, labor force
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
tics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau
Census

848.

Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Unemployment rate, Negro and other races, lat
force survey ( M ^ D e p a r t m e n t of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commer
Bureau of the Census
(C

858.

Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfa
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Lat
Statistics
([

859.

Real spendable average weekly earnings of prod
tion or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 depender
on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1967 doll
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Lai
Statistics
([

540.

541.

542.

Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures
and other services imports; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
Income on U.S. investments abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

741.
543.

544.

545.

124

Income on foreign investments in the U.S.; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

745.

Payments by U.S. travelers abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

746.




Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

surv
Stai
of 1
(C