Full text of Business Conditions Digest : August 1973

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication

areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and
review,
Morton Somer-Seiection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall-Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-5448)
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in
the list of series and sources at the back of this
report.
This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:
Edgar R. Fiedler, Chairman
Department of the Treasury

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Frederick B. Dent, Secretary
Sidney L. Jones, Assistant Secretary
for Economic Affairs

Social and Economic Statistics Administration
Edward D. Failor, Administrator
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Julius Shiskin, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor
George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisors,
Executive Office of the President
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.

George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Feliks Tamm, Editor

ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some ol these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.

Subscription price, Including supplements, is $33 a year ($8.25 additional
for foreign mailing). Single Issues are $3.25. Airmail delivery is available at
an additional charge. For Information about domestic or foreign airmail
delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),



This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.

enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the
Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402.

New Features and Changes for This Issue

BCII

iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

AUGUST 1973
Data Through July
Series ESI No, 73-8

1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5

PART I. CHARTS

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11

Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income

ANTICIPATSONS AND INTENTIONS

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Tsmincj

B3
B4
B5
B6

Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Composite Indexes . . .
NBER Short List




43
46

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

D3
D4

D5
D6

Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components . . .
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . .

48
49
54
56
58
60

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
20
23
25
28
30
33

Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
B8

Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

37
39

Actual and Potential Gross National Product . . . 61
Analytical Ratios
62
Diffusion Indexes
63
Rates of Change
65

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices

The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the
transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this
periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through
September 1, 1975.

66
67
68

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income

70
70
71
71

Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving

71
71
72

Real Gross National Product

72

Shares of GNP and National Income

A5
A6
A7

69

Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services ..

Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

69

73

Employment and Unemployment
...........
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
Fixed Capital Investment
..................
Inventories and Inventory Investment
.......
„
Prices, Costs, and Profits
..................
Money and Credit
........................

74
76
77
78
79
81

Composite Indexes

83

.......................

D2
D4

84
85

Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components

86
87
89
90
92
94

Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

E1
E2
E3
E4

Actual and Potential GNP

F1
F2J
==j
F3]

Consumer Prices

Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components

Industrial Production
Stock Prices

A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See June 1973issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See Alphabetic Index—Series Finding Guide)
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 (See April 1973 issue)
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See June 1973issue)
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series




95
96
97
99

103
103
104

105
108
109

119
122

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

Changes in this issue are as follows:

A limited number of
changes are made from
t;me to time to Incorporate recent findings of economic

1. The series on newly approved capital appropriations (series 11
and Dll) have been revised by the source agency for the period 1971
to date. These revisions reflect changes in the seasonal patterns
of the component industries.

research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composft/on,

Data on the backlog of capital appropriations (series 97) have
been revised for the period 1953 to date. This revision reflects a
new benchmark taken at the end of the fourth quarter 1972.
Additional information concerning these revisions may be obtained
from The Conference Board, Department of Investment Economics, 845
Third Avenue, New Tork, New York 10022.
2. The series on U.S. industrial production (series 47, D47, and 853)
have been revised for the period March 1972 to date. These revisions
reflect the source agency's annual updating of these data and the
incorporation of new seasonal adjustment factors.

comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of

Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained
from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Business
Conditions Section.
3. The monthly series on labor cost per unit of output (series 62)
and price per unit of labor cost (series 17) have been revised to
reflect changes in data on U.S. industrial production. (See item 2,
above.)
4. The index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (series 29) has been revised for the period 1946 to
date. The basic data for this series are now collected from 14,000
permit-issuing places by the source agency. (Previously data were
collected from 13,000 permit-issuing places.) Data on the number of
units authorized in the new 14,000-place universe are available for
the period 1972 to date. Data for the period prior to 1972 were
adjusted to the level of the new 1972 data before the index was
computed.
(Continued on page iv.)
The September issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on September 28.




iii

indexes, etc.

Revised data for series 29 are shown in this issue for the period 1971 to date.
Revised figures for the earlier period will be shown in a subsequent issue.
5. The series on total private borrowing (series 110) has been revised by the source
agency for the period 1953 to date to reflect benchmark revisions and new seasonal adjustments. Revised data are shown in this issue for the period 1971 to date. Revised data
for the earlier period will be shown in a subsequent issue.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System,, Division of Research and Statistics.
6. The i"evision of the composite indexes, originally scheduled to be available for
this issue, has not yet been completed. The revised indexes will be published as soon as
they are available.
7. Appendix C contains historical data for series 6, 10, 16, 17, 18, 20, 22, 24, 25,
31, 34, 35, 52, 53, 56, 57, 62, 65, 69, 71, 96, 648, 740, 741, 851, 852, and D6.




iv

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject $©ctionss as follows:
A,
B.
(X
D.
E.
F.

National Sneorne and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measores
Internationa! Comparisons

Each of
sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part B
(charts) and in Part IS (tables) ©f the report Most charts begin with 1952 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain
for only the last
few years. Exeept for section Fp the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession In general business activity.
Dn addition to the charts
described above, each BSSO@ contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability* An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and d© not reflect relationships or order.

Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.

MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD



moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.

The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.

SECTION A

The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ( B E A ) summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (ONP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Persona/ consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-

cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Ho'me purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in Section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable persona/ income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an

accounting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of tho series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
I SECTION B

The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable,
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a

tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses tha same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 78 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaiks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.

CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE

II. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)

(9 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)

j;

: Job vacancies
(2 series)
i|ROUGHLY COINCIDENT Comprehensive
:
li
INDICATORS
employment
I1
(26 series)
(3 series)
1
Comprehensive
;
unemployment
!l
(3 series)

Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
I LAGGING INDICATORS
(12 series)




IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

The NBER has also specified a "short list1*
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately m chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the
coincident index. This facilitates

V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(14 series)

VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(18 series)

oci lot live miMiiiuuiiy

enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)

Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
,'.
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (4 series)

Investment
expenditures
(2 series)

Inventories
(2 series)

riuws ui iiiuiicy

prices (1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)

and purchasing
(7 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(4 series)

Unit labor costs
(3 series)

Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

comparisons among the lead ing, coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C

Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future, (nformation on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D

Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com


prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures,
and their balance, and selected defense
activities. The receipts and expenditures
data are from the national income and
product accounts. The defense series are
only a few otf the many available. For a
more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis publication.
Three other groups of series are included
in this section. The price movements series consist of consumer and wholesale
price indexes, and their major components.
The series on wages and productivity include measures of hourly earnings and
output per man-hour and also rates of
change for most of these measures. The
final group of series measures the civilian
labor force and its major components, including unemployment rates for selected
segments of the labor force.
SECTION E

This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available mar-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBIER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost

per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates, Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates, The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans,

SECTION F

Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
al! previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.

Basic Data
(Moy) (Feb.)
P T

Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages*)

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
mon
^ f°r which data are plotted,
U
( 6" = June)
<| Roman number indicates latest
^/quarter for which data are
/
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale U" is a logarithmic scale with ,1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.

Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted 1%, 2,
or 2V2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles,
or



2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers within each of the
Digest's six sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Series title

Percent change

.
1

Unit
of
measure

IstQ
1970

1971

1972

2dQ

3dQ

4th Q

1972

1972

1972

1972

1stQ
1973

2dQ
1973

3d Q
to
4th Q

4th Q
to
IstQ

IstQ
to
2dQ

1972

Average

1973

1973

•!
1

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
200.
205
210
215
217

Ann. rate, bil. dol. .
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol. ...
do

GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars .
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars . . .

977,1 1055.4 1155.2 1112.5 1142.4 1166.5 1199.2 1242.5 1272.0
829.3
745.4 790.7 768.0 785.6 796.7 812.3
722.5
834,3
149.8
147.6
146.1 144.9
146.4
152.5
141*6
145.4
135.2
4*768 5»097 5 r 530 5»342 5t476 5t580 5? 724 5t920 6i051
3 1 526 3 t 5 9 9 3 r 7 8 5 3 f 6 8 6 3*765 3i811 3 1 877 3i951 3,969

2.8
2.0
0.8
2.6
1.7

3.6
2.1
1.5
3.4
1,9

2.4
0.6
1.8
2.2
0.5

200
205
210
215
217

A2. National and Personal Income
300.5
808.3
691.7
534.8

S59.4
863.5
746.0
554.9

941.8
939.2
797.0
577.9

911.0
910.8
772,8
565.7

928,3
926.1
785,4
571.6

949.2
943.7
800.9
579,3

978.6 1015.0 1039.4
976.1 996.6 1019,0
828.7 851.5
869.7
604.8
595.1 603.9

3.1
3.4
3,5
2.7

3.7
2.1
2.8
1.5

2.4
2.2
2.1
0.1

220
222
224
225

3t376
2i610

3»603
2»680

3i816
2,»767

3»711
2i7l6

3 1 765
2 1 740

3*831
2*771

3? 955
2t841

4t057
2t878

4i 137
2t877

3.2
2.5

2.6
1.3

2.0
0.0

226
227

Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
do
do
do
do
do

617.6
477.5

667.2
496.3
103.6

726.5
!>26 . 8
L17.4

700.2
512.5
111.5

719,2
523.4
115,1

734.1
531,0
120,2

752.6
540.5
122.9

779.4
552.7
132.2

795.6
553,3
132.8

68.2
35.4

78.0
39.4

74.9
36,6

77,0
38,1

78.4
41.8

81.7
41,2

87.1
45.1

88.2
44.6

2.5
1.8
2.2
4,2

2.1
0.1
0.5
1.3

263.8
262.6

278.7
284*9

299.9
309.2

288,8
300.0

297,9
306,2

302.3
311.6

310.7
319.0

322.2
325.0

330.3
332.6

2.8
2.4

3.6
2.3
7.6
6.6
9,5
3.7
1.9

230
231
232
233
234
236
237

Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
do
do
do
do

136.3
100*6

153.2
104.4

178.3
118,2

167.5
114.0

174,7
116.3

181.5
118.3

189.4
124.3

194.5
130.9

198.2
134.1

36.1
64.4
31,2

37.9
66.5
42.7

41.7
76,5
54.0

41.0
73.1
51.8

41,5
74.9
52.3

41.3
77.0
54.5

43.0
81.2
56.9

45.3
85.5
59.0

47,2
86,9
59,6

4.4
5.1
4.1
5.5
4.4

2.7
5.3
5.3
5.3
3,7

220
222
224.
225.
226.

National income current dollars . ,
Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
Personal income current dollars
... do
do
Disposable personal income, current dollars
do
Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol. ...
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable pers. income, 1958 dol. . .
do
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures

230
231.
232.
233
234
236
237

Total current dollars
Total 1958 dollars
Durable goods current dollars ...
Durable goods exc autos current dollars
Automobile1! current dollars
Nondurable goods current dollars
Services current dollars

91.3
63.3
28.0

-1.4

-1.1

2.5
2.3

A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241
242
243
244.
245

Gross private domestic investment, total
Fixed investment total non residential
Fined investment non residential structures
Fixed investment producers' durable equip
Fixed investment residential structures
Change in business inventories, total2

4.5

6.1

6.0

1.7

5,5

8.7

8.2

4.6

4,5

-0.5

-3,6

1,9
2,4
4.2
1.6
1.0

-o.i

240
241
242
243
244
245

2.8
8.4
5.2

250
252
253

2.5
1.7

260
262
264
266

A5. Foreign Trade
250 Net exports of goods and services2
252 Exports
253. Irnports

Ann.rate, bil.dol. ,
do
......do

3.6

.8

-4.6
73,5
78.1

-5.5
70.3
75.8

-5,7
69,9
75,6

-3.8
74.0
77.7

-3.5
79.7

255.0
104.4

250.3
106.0

254.2
106.7

254,7
102,3

74.4

76.5

76.6

71.9

136.2

150.5

144.3

147.5

Ann.rate.bil.dol. . 182.5
...... do
1.2
...... do
284.1
...... do
3.3

191.1
2.0
299.9
4*1

214.1
4.9
321.2
1.1

205.5
0.4
309.7
1.3

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
. do . . . .
do
...... do
do

603.9

644.1

707.1

66.9
23.9
69.2
36.5

68.7

74,2
24.1
91.1
45.2

Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
. .

143.1
56*2

153. B
60.2

62.9
59.3

66.3
65.5

219.5

234.3

96.2
74.6

98.1
71.6

123.3

0.0

2.3

0,3
7.7
7.1

89.7
89,7

97.2
94,4

260.7
102.7

268.6
105.5

275.3
107.3

72,4

74,3

74.2

152.4

158,0

163.0

168.0

2.4
0-4
0.7
3.7

211.4
3.2
319.6
2.3

216.8
5.8
323.1
2.9

222.8

242.4
7.3
357.3

2.8
4.6
2.9

-2.2

238.1
4.4
346.9
0.3

684.3

699,6

713.1

731.2

757.4

774.9

72.5
24,1
86.2
43.9

73.2
22.6
88.0
44.8

74.1
24.9
91.5
45.7

77.1
24.9
98.8
46.6

80.6
24.7

81.5
24.6

104.3

109.0

47.9

49.4

171.4

164.8

166.1

172.3

182,2

190.4

195.8

49.7

52.9

45,9

45.8

54.4

50.0

51.0

22.4

83*2

3.5
12,5

7.8

A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260
262
264.
266.

Total
Federal
National defense
State and local

....
....

Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
do
......do

3.0
2.7
2.6
3.2

-0.1

3.1

A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270
271
274.
275.

Final sains durable goods . .
Change in business inventories, dur goods2
Final sales nondurable goods ...
Change in bus. inventories, nondur. goods2

10.4

332.5

-2.8

-5.1

6.9
-6.0

4,3
2,5

1.8
2.9
3.0
-3,1

270
271
274
275

A8. National Income Components
280.
282
284
286.
288

Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons ....
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj. .
Net interest

24. !i

so.:.
42.0

2.5
4.0
0.0
8.0
2.0

5.6
2.8

4.5
3,1

280
282
284
286
288

4.5

2.8
2.0

290
292

3.6
4.5
-0.8

2,3
1.1
-0.4

A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, total
292 Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances .
298. Government surplus or deficit, total2

do
.do
do

9.8

5.7
18.8

-8.1

18.2

-7.5

17.5
93.8

22.5

26.6

24.6

24.1

103.7

-10.1

-3.9

-3.8

106.9
8.9

109.1

-2.8

102.3
2*0

105.1

-18.1

19.9
98.3
-5,4

20.3

87.3

11.7

-5.8

718.5
3.9

740 <.l
5.3

786.1
4,6

766.9
1,1

781.3
4.3

790.0
6*6

806*0
6,3

826.0
3.3

831.0
3.4

-0.3

77.2
22.2
28.5

76.1
36.4

83.7
34,6
39.0

81.5
34,0
36.1

82.5
34.2
37.7

83.4
34.7
41.0

87,5
35.3
41.4

91.2
35.6
46.4

91.5
35.3
45.5

4.9
1.7
1.0

139.3

138.4

143.0

142.7

144,0

141.8

143,5

144.4

145.2

1,2

45.6

34.3

44.0

35.0

32.6

25.7

17.7

21.7

102.4

2.7

1.7
12.7

-2.0

2,1
2,8

294
296
298

AID. Real GNP (1958 dollars)
273
246
247.
248.
24i9
261.

Final sales 1958 dollars
Chamjeinbus inventories 1958 dollars2
Fixed investment, non residential, 1958 dollars .
Fixed investment, residential struc., 1958 dol. .
Gross auto product 1958 dollars
Government purchases of goods and
services total, 1958 dollars ....
...

Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
do
do
do

do

29*0

2.0

2.5
-3.0

4.2
0.8
12.1

0.6

0,6
0.1
0.3
-0.8
-1,9

273
246
247
248
249

0.6

261

4.0

207

E1. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNPgap (potential less actual), 1958 dol.2 ....




Ann.rate.bil.dol. . ! 35.9

-6.9

-8.0

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
Basic data'
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Percent ehangs

Average

June

1972

4th Q
1972

1stQ
1973

2dQ
1973

May
1973

June

July

1973

1973

June

July

4th Q
to
1st (I

1973

1971

May
to

1973

5973

to

ft

1st a

to
2dQ
1973

8
1

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
810.
820
625
830.

1967=100
12 Ifltdlng Indicators, reverse trend adj.3
6 coincident indicator*
do
6 coincident indicators deflated
. ..
do
do
0 tagging indicators

LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
813. Marginal employment adjustments
814. Capital investment commitments
815. Inventory Investment and purchasing
818. Profitability ,
81 7. Seniltive financial flows

.

159.7
149.4
134.8
142.6

163.5
153.2
136,2
151.4

105.4

99.6
119.1
107.7
107.1
115.4

101.5
122.0
111.4
111.6
122.2

103.1
122.5
116.3
116.2
129.1

103.1
122,1
120.9
118,3
125,4

39.9

do
do
do
do
. do

,129.7

152.2
144.1
131.3
135.4

40.6

40.7

40.7

40.7

126.2
124.0
114.8
125.0

143.8
136.8
125.1

93.9
112.3
102.1

100*2

164.0
153,3
136.2
151.4

165.6
154.4
136.6
153.8

167.5
155.6
137.5
155.9

1.0
0.7
0,3
1.6

1*1
0.8
0*7
1*4

4,9
3,7
2*7
5*3

2.4
2.5
1.0
6,2

810
820
825
830

103*4

102.5
123.0
124.0
118.4
125.5

NA
121.6
123.2
118.4
NA

-0.9
1.1
2.8
-0.3
-1.7

NA
-1.1
-0.6
0.0
NA

1,6
0.4
4,4
4.1
5.6

0.0
-0.3
4.0
1.8
-2.9

613
814
815
816
817

40.6

40.9

-0.2

0.7

0.0

0.0

1

-0*1
-0.5

0.0
NA

O.I

0.1

o.o

21
2

-2.6
-0.1

7,1
NA

7.3
0.0

-4.0
0.1

5
3

121.7

120*6
118.8
127.7

B1. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*l. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
21. Avera()e weekly overtime hours,

Hours

40.7

do
Per 100 employ. , .

ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT /NDICA TORS
Job Vacancies:
50. Number of job vecanclei, manufacturing
46. Help-wonted advertising

3.9

4.4

4.5

4.9

4,9

5.1

4.6

Thousands
Per 100 employ. ..

2 Accession rate manufacturing3
•5. Average weekly initial claim*, State
unemployment insurance (inverted4) .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (Inverted4)3

.3.8
NA

291
1.6

257
1.1

245
0.9

227
0.9

236
0.8

232
0.8

238
0.9

.221
NA

88
82

127
101

154
112

174
121

182
122

179
121

188
124

NA
131

5.0
2.5

NA
5.6

13,0
B.O

4.6
0.8

50
46

137.72 142 ,,46 144*46 145.94 147.38 147.50 147.65 148*09
70,645 72*764 73*807 74,627 75,286 75,321 75 t 432 75,471
75i732 78 i 230 78*946 79*722 80,875 80 » 749 81,271 81,098

0.1
0*1
0.6

0*3
0.1
-0.2

1,0
1.1
1.0

1*0
0.9
1.4

48
41
42

Thousands
1967=100

Comprehensive Employ mint:
48. Man-hours in nonagriculturel establishments, .
*41 Employees on ncnagricultural payrolls
42. Persons engaged in nonao/t. activities .
Comprehensive Unemployment:
•43. Unemployment rate, total (Inverted4)2
4b. Average weekly Insured unemployment
rate (Inverted4)2
40. Unemployment rete, married males
( inverted4 )a

Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Thousands .
...... do . . .
Percent

o.u

5.6

5.3

5,0

4.9

5.0

4.8

4.7

0*2

0.1

0,3

0,1

43

4.1

3.4

3,2

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

0*0

0.0

0.5

0,0

45

do

3,2

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.1

0.0

0.2

o.a

o.i

40

do

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.0

0.9

0*9

0.9

0.8

0.0

0.1

0.2

0,1

44

Ann.rate, bil.dol. . 1055.4 1155.2 1199.2 1242.5 1272.0
do
745.4 790.7 812.3
829.3 834.3
1967=100
120.2
106.8
115.2
123.1
124,8

LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
over (Inverted4)3

5.9

do

124*8

0.5

0.7

3.6
2.1
2.4

2.4
0.6
1.4

200
205
47

0.8
1.4

0.7
0.7

2.1
2.9

2.2
2.9

52
53

NA
3.4
3.2

5.3
3.9
5.7
3.8

2.3
2*4
0.2
-2.5

56
57
54
59

NA
foA

0.1
5,3

-1.1
-0.9

12
13

1*3
5,8
8.4

-0*7
-10.4
-0*1

4*6

0.3

6.3
10.6
2.5
16.7
5.6

5.7
-5.3
6.5
11.2
6.5

6
8
10
11
24

6.5
4.0
-10*5

8.7
0.0
-5.3

-4.7
"8.1
-HI. 7

9
28
29

1.3

7.4
12.7

10.9
14.2

96
97

B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
•ndTrxte
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
•200. GNP In current dolCars
*205. GNP in 1958 dolleri
*47 Ihdustriol production

Comprehensive Income:
*52. Personal income
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg,, construction . . ...... do
Comprehensive Consumption end Trade:
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
•54. Sales of retflil stores
59. Seles of retail stores, deflated

863.5
202.7

Bil.dol
112.24
Ann.rate, bil.dol. . 1049.4
Mil.dol
34 » 026
do
28 i 977

939.2

976.1

222.1

230.9

125.4

126.3

996.6 1019,0 1018.7 1026,6 1033.9
237.6 244.5 244.1 247,6 249.3

124.66 131.91 138.93 142*14 142.69 142,45
NA
1149.1 1191.0 1237.8 1267.5
37*269 39 t 079 41,309 41 t 379 41,735 41*216 42*618
30 1 eoa 31*875 33,073 32,261 32,529 31,927 32 ,935

-0.2
-1.2
-1*9

B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations

1967«tOO
Number

New Investment Commitments:
•6. New orders, durable goods industries
Bil. dol
8. Construction contracts, total value
1967-100
•10. Contracts and orders for plant, equipment . . .Bil.dol
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing , . .
do
do
24. New orders, cap. goods Indus., nondefense . . .
9. Construction contracts, commercial
Mil. sq. feet
and industrial buildings.
floor space
28. New private housing UBI its started, total
Ann. rate, thous . .
*29. New building permits, private housing
1967-100
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durably goods industries5
97. Backlog of cepital appropriations, mfg.5




,

Bil. dol.. EOF ....
do

120.8
111.6
118.6
120,9
118.9
119.7
119.6
24 t 020 2 6> 456 27.139 28,576 28*329 28*422 27*873

NA
NA

34.92

37.64

40,00

42.27

42.45

43.02

42*71

165
10.56
7,221
8.99

170
11.64
8.26
9.77

188
11,93
9,64
10.32

178
12.71
10.72
10.99

173
12.58

183
13.64

164
13.62

10,92

11.42

11*45

61.19

72.10

76,21

2*210

2*413

167.4

192.2

199.4

188.8

166.8

158.4

84.52
2,093
174*9

90*02

2*357

85.55
2,404

8i. 53

2*052

78.70
2i403

70.15
17,98

81.99

81.99

88.03

97.65

98.95

22.29

25.12

97.65
28.68

93.68

22.29

29.76
145
8.84
5.76
7.33

2,176
156.5

-0.7
-1,9

10.9
-13.3
10.4

4*0

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Average
1972

1971

IstQ

2dQ

May

June

July

1973

1973

1973

1973

May
to
June

1973

June
to
July

4th Q
to
IstQ

IstQ
to
2dQ

1973

4th Q
197;!

i

Percent change

1973

1973

1973

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
Ann.rate. biLdoL .
69. Machinery and equipment sates and business
construction expenditures

81.22

88,38

91.94

96.19 a98.57

4.6

106.50 121.46 127.31 134.77 143.42 142.63 146*21

...do

NA

2.5

NA

NA

6.0

NA

2.5

61

5.9

6.4

69

B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
*31. Changs, mfg. arid trade inven., book value2 .
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories2
20, Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials,
supplies, book value2
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2®
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries3®
25 Chg in unfilled orders dur goods indus 2
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
•71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5 ....
65. Mfrs/inven. of finished goods, book value5 ..

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do

6.1
8.8

6*0
10*5

8.2
.14.7

4.6
21.5

4.5
23.9

6.8

2.4

245
31

-4

-3

37

-3.6
25.3

31.3

-0.1

50

Percent
Ann.rate, biLdol. .
Percent .

...

do
Bil dol

Bil.doL,EOP ....
do

55

65

61

58

56

61

62

5

0.7

1*0

2.0

4.8

5.5

5*3

6.9

NA

1.6

NA

2.8

0.7

20

54

57

63

66

78

80

78

82

-2

4

3

12

26

-3

-1
-2.46

7

32
25

48
-0.20

63
0.98

73
1.04

83
2.01

90
3.20

92
3.16

89
3.76

183.62 194,15 194.15 199.52 205.51 202,90 205.51
34.81 35.80 35*80 36.06 36*70 36.32 36.70

88
1*30

0.60

1

NA
NA

1.3
1,0

NA
NA

178.1

4.4

4.7

10
0,97

2.8
0.7

1.19

3,0
1.8

71
65

B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices®

1967=100

107.1

Stock Prices:
*19 Stock prices, 500 common stocks®

1941-43=10

98.29 109.20 114.04 115*00 107*41 107.22 104.75 105.83

Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes, current dot. ... Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
18 Corporate prof its after taxes 1958 dollars
22. Ratio, profits to income originating in
2
Percent
corporate business . .
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 . . .Cents
1967=100
*17 Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg
Ann.rate, biLdol. .
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
do
35. Net cash flow, corporate 1958 dollars
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities®. . . 1967=100
55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A2 . . Percent
1967=100
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
63. Unit labor cost, total private economy
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinarccial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.

do
Dollars
1967=100

47.6
35.1

8.9
4.1

123.0

55.4
39.6

9.5
4.3

131.5

147.4

163.7

60.3
42.8

66.9
47,0

9.8
4.4
101.3
101.9

10.5

NA
105.3
115,8

71.7

76.1

121.3
0*8
123.6

125,7
1.2
128.8

-2.3

1.0

79.0

119.1
0.2
119.6

170.1

11.1

4.7
103.4
109.2

162.9

72.6
49.9

12.1

0.8

11*1

23

-6.6

19

9.8

8,5
6.2

16
18

0.7
0.3
2.1
7.2
6.1

0.6
NA
1.8
6.0
3.8

22
15
17
34
35

1.8
0.6
3.3

3.6
0,4
4,2

55
55
58

10.9

105.6

105.9

105.6

125.8
1*2
128.7

126.9
1.0
130*9

126.9
0.1
129.8

97.3
82.9
60.4

99.2
95.2
67.4

114*0
0*3
113.8

117.9
0.3
117*9

122.6

126*2

126,9

128.5

130.9

1.3

1.9

63

0*847
118.9

0.853
118.2

0.862
119.5

0.874
121,8

121*6

122*9

122.6

1.1
1.1

1.4
1.9

68
62

10.2O

10.69

12*44

5.93

1.75

-6,51

-6.86

8.48

9.85

10.43

5.50

0.58

-4.93

-4.38

3.77

9.08

10.42
59.47
14.57
19.34

5.72

1.34
3.67
0.03

-4.70
NA

-2,86
0.76
-7.17
7,79
22.38 •20.48
4.45
-3.93

0.825
117.0

0.3

0.9
-0.2

1.7

1*1

-0*3

0.0
-0.9
-0.8

-0.2

B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
85. Change in money supply (Ml)2
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at commercial banks (M2)2
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
banks and nonbank institutions (M3)2
33 Change in mortgage debt2
1 12 Change in business loans2
*1 13 Change en consumer installment debt2
1 10. Total private borrowing

Ann. rate, percent . .

do
do
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
. ... do
do
do

Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted4)® . . Mil. dol
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv.4)2 5 . Percent, EOP ....
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Bank Reserves:
93, Free reserves (inverted4)2®
Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate2®
116. Corporate bond yields2®
115. Treasury bond yields2®
1 17. Municipal bond yields2®




Mil. dol

7.97

8.58

1.72

10.33

10.07

5.69

do
do
do

9.46

11.41
8.55
9.31
54*10 46.93 54*72
1.65
6.70
16*43 38.81 18.33
8.98
15.91 19*51 23.96 20*03
121.20 148,9fi 186*24 176.53 174*58
12.71
36.19

12.25
48.71

55.80
14,54
23,89

NA
22,90
NA

-128

-483

4.34
7.85
5.74
5.48

4.07
7.59
5.64

4.85
7.54
5.61
5.08

5.5;6

-It258 -1»618 -Ii638 -It 653 -Ii605
5.64
7.68
6.10

6*61
7*71
6.23

5. 16

5.1ft

-4.55

8.33

NA

-5,2

159.74 166,69 149.45 198.45 155.83 167.95 180.21 206*19
1.68
1.9,2
1*92
2.02
2.01
NA
NA
2*01

-207

Percent
. ..

6.46

10.88

6.35
7.69
6.25
5.14

7.19
7,73
6.32
5.18

8.02
7.97
6,53
5.UO

-1.1

85
102
103
33
112
113
110

NA

-14.4
NA

-32.8
-0.10

21,5
0.01

14
39

15

-48

775

360

93

-7.3

0.84
0.04

0*07
n.na

0.83
0,24
0.21
n.po

0.79
0.14
0.49
n -Aft

0.97
0.03
0.13

rt-nn

114
116
115
i11

Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Percent change

Average
IstQ
1971

1972

1972

2dQ

May

June

1973

1973

1973

May
to
June
1973

July

1973

1973

Juno
to
July
1073

4th 0
to

1st a

IstQ
to
2(1 Q

1973

Series number

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.

1973

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6. Money and Credit-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstandinij Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt3
8il.dol.,EOP ....
*72, Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . Bi! do!
Interest Rates:
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans2®. . . Percent
118. Mortfjage yields, residential*®
do

108.53 124.44 124,44 130.43 135.44 133.82 135.44
NA
84,30 87.25 90,67
97,89 104.98 104.98 106.20 108,10

6.32
7.70

5.82
7.53

6.33
7.57

6.52
7.58

7.35
7,80

7.79

7,89

8,19

1.2
1.2

NA
1,8

0.10

0,30

142
3.1
-9.1
-6.3
0.6

122
1.6
NA
NA
-0.6

4.8
8.0
0.19
0.01

3,8
7.2
0.33
0.22

66
72
67
118

0. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1. Foreign Trade
500.
502.
506.
508,
512.

Merchandise trade balance3
Mil do)
Exports, excluding military aid
do
Export orders, dur. goods exc, motor vehicles .
do
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
1957-59=100 ....
General imports
Mil.dol

250.
515.
517.
519.
621.
522.

Balance on goods and services5
Bal. on goods, services, and remittances2
Balanco on currant account2
Balanco on cure. ecct. and long-term capital2 .
Net liquidity balance5
Official reserve transactions balance3

-160

3 1 634
1 » 454'
246
3? 794

7

-16

106

5*778
2*052

5*868

-526

-513

-278

4 1 103
Ii716

4t449
1*928

2*286

352
4 1630

385

402

434

447

419

NA
iMA

4*962

5*418

5*615

5*761

5*794

5*762

5*141

5*623
2*140

-158

5.603
2*258

235
15,6
13.6

235
9.4

500

soa

8,0
3,6

506
508
512

871
NA
900
NA
1*001
NA
342
NA
-2*850 5*213
-9*055 11*002

250
515
517
519
521
522

5.1
3.5
1.5

600
601
602
264
616
621
648
625

4.4
9.2

»6.4

02. U.S. Balance of Payments
Mil.dol
do
do
do
do
......do

807 -4*609
-It544
-2*088
-2t389 -2»467
-5*492 -3<i469
-7*439 -2 -»584
-187
-698

-870
1
NA
-It 299
-399
NA
-1*751
-750
NA
-1*556 -1*214
NA
-3*851 -6*709 -1*496
-1,484 •10.539
463

03. Federal Government Activities
Federal surplus or deficit, NIA2
Federal receipts, NIA
Federal expenditures, NIA
National! defense purchases
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S

600.
601.
602.
264.
616.
621.
648.
625.

Ann.rate, bil.rJol. .
do
... .do
do
Mil.dol
do
Bil.dol
Mil dol

-22.2
198.9
221.0

-15,9

-23.4

-5.0

0.1

18.4

228.7
244.6

236.9
260.3

253.6
258.6

262,5
262.4

-0,7

74.2

7.0

71,6

74.4

72.4

74.3

6 1 788

6*828

Ii769

7*111
1*732

1*510

7*376
1*865

1.64

1,72

1.56

1.79

1.99

1.85

2,18

2*775

3*002

2 1 994

2*963

2'* 856

3*237

2*861

136.6
121.3
0,3
113.9

141.0
1255.3
0,3
119,1

142.9
126.9
0.3
121.2

145.3
128.7
0.7
127,0

148.1
131.5
0.6
133.6

131.5
0-6
133.5

132.4
0.6
136.7

NA
NA

7*079
1*720

NA
NA

2.6
e.o

NA

NA
NA
17.8
-11.6

NA
NA
-51.8
NA

132.7
0.2
134.9

0,7
0,0
2,4

0.2
-0.4
-1.3

1.7
1.4
0,4
4.8

0,8

0.4

1,3

NA
NA
1.05

23.5
14.7
-1,0

-0.1

NA
NA
11.2
-3,6

04. Price Movements
211.
781.
78 1c.
750

Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product ... 1958»100
Consumer prices, all items©
1967=100
Change in consumgr prices, all items, S/A1 . . . Percent
Wholesale prices ell commodities®
1967=100

1.9
2.2
5.2

211
781
781
750

1.6

740

-0.1

05. Wages and Productivity
740. Average hourly earnings, production workers
in prtvato nonfarin economy
, . . . do .
741. Real average hourly earnings, production
do
workers In private nonfarm economy
859. Heal spendable avg, weekly earnings,
nonagri. prod, of nonsupv. workers
1967 dol. ..
745. Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm . . 1967=100
746. Real svrj. hourly comp., private nonfarm
do
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy .
do
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . .
do

129.7

137,9

141.0

142,7

145,0

144.7

145.8

146.4

106.9

110.1

111,1

110.8

110.3

110*1

110.2

110.5

0,1

0.3

-0.3

-0.5

741

92.51
131.6
108.5
108,7
107.6

96., 31

97.08

95.85

95,69

95.61

95.51

96.17

140.7
112.3
11208
112..1

143.8
113.3
114.8
114.2

-0.1

-1.3

-Q.2

147.5
114.6
115,9
115.6

0.7

149.6
113,8
115,8
115,4

859
745
746
770
858

2.6
1.1
1.0
1.2

1.4
-0.7
-0,1
-0.2

06. Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components
841. Total civilian laborforce
Thousands
842. Total civilian employment
do
4
643. Number of persons unemployed {inverted} . .
do

87 i 113 86 * 542 87*175 87*586 88*562 88*405 88*932 83*810
79*120 81*702 82 i 567 83*190 84*205 84*024 84*674 84*614
4*993
4*840 4*608 4*396 4*357 4*381 4*258
4*196

0.6
0*8
2.8

-0.1
-0.1
1.5

1.4

NA

3.6
1,1

NA
-0.2

0.5
0.8
4.6

1.1
1.2
0.9

341
842
843

1.3

0.5
0.7

850
851

6.5
2.0

852
853

-10.6

0,0

854

13.1

2.0
0.1

860
857

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2 ...
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade ....
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries ....
853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods . .
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
persons unemployed
857. Vacancy rate in total (rental housing2®

Percent
Ratio

75.0
1.60

do
1967=100
Ratio

31,5
1.46

82.8
1.42

83.3
1.43

1.42

1.44

2.72
83.6

2.57
85.9

2,56
88,8

2.60
90.5

2.77
92.3

2.75
92-3

2.85
93.3

0.822

0.867

0,081

do
Percent

78.6
1.51

0,0651

0.066

0.059

0*620

0.723

0.834

5.4

5,6

5.6

0.818
5,7

NA
93. i

0,059

0.487

NA

5.8

0.930

5.5

7.3

-2.7

1.6
1.9

0.1

NOTE: Series aro seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by (g), which appear to contain no seasonal movement. 'Series included in ths 19R6 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA - not available, a - anticipated.
EOF » end of period. S/A= seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titlei; (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCO.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are
those publiehe.d by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shewn in part II.
differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Index for the letest month excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
^Inverted series. Sinee this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.

8




NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart Al

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

(July)-(Apr.)
T

{May} (Feb.)
P T

200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil

210. Implicit price deflator, Q (index: 1958-100)

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ i AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

(Wov.) (Now.)
P
T

Section A
Chart _ A2j NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME

(July) «jff.)
P

(Way) (Fib.)

T

(WOT.)

F T

220. National income, current dollars, Q (ann, rate, bil. dol.)

222. Personal income, current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

22S. Disposable personal income, 1358 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

228. Per capita disposable personal income, current dollars
Q (ann. rate, thus, dol.)

227. Per capita disposable personal
income, 1958 dollars, 6 (ann.
rate, ttous. dol.)

1952 53

B4

55

56

57

§8

59

60

il

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73 1974

Current data for those scries arc shown on page 69.




10

AUGUST 1973

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A3

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

(July) <Au&)
T

(Juty) (Apr)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

231. Total, 1958 dollars, Q

231 Dtrale pods, total, current doflarsTQ

le goods, total
current dollars, Q

234. Atrtoitiobiles, current dollars, Q

236. Nondurable goods, total, current dollars, Q

237. Services, total current dollars, Q

19S2 53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

6@

70

71

72

73 1S74

Current data for tfiese series are shown on page 70.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ltd*

11

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A4

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

F

») (Apr.)
P
T

T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
1

(fey) (Feb.)
F T

Gross private domestic investment-

241, Nonresidential fixed investment, total, Q

242. Nonresidential structures, Q

243. Producers' durable equipment, Q

244. Residential structures. Q

245. Change in business inventories, Q

^

§4

Si

S6

57

Si

59

€0

61

82

S4

65

66

67

68

Si

71

71

71 197-0

Current dcrto for these series are shown on page 70.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
12
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

AUGUST

1973

BCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A5

FOREIGN TRADE

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (fab.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
250.: Net exports of goods and services, Q

252. Exports of goods and services, Q

253. Imports of goods and services, Q

iiS2 S3

54

Si

Si

S7

61

§2

63

64

@§

71

72

73

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.


AUGUST 1973


13

Section A

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Qchart

(Ju(y)
P

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

(Aug.)
I

(July) (Apr.)
P T

P

T

Aflimal ratfi, iiilliofl Mats (cacreit)

260. Fetal, State, and local governments,

mo

264. national defense, Q

268. State anil local governments, Q

s© ©© in

©i ©^

dd dD

n n

Current data for these) series are shown on page 71.


14


AUGUST 1973

KCII

Chart A7

P

FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES

) (Nov.)
T

T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

270. Final sales, durable goods, Q

271. Change In business inventories, durable goods, Q

M
274. final safes, nondurable goods, 1

275. Change in 'business inventories, nondurable goods, Q

i
i

i4

i
i

id

1?

n

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.


I U
B )
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

15

Section A

NATIONAL

Chart A8

NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS

(July) (Aug.)
P
I

(July) («
P
T

AND

(May) (Fib.)
P T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment, ft

1§82 S3

54

SB

72 n

Current data for those series are shown on pages 71 and 72,




16

AUGUST 1973

!!€!»

Section A

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(July) {
P
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

290. Gross saving (private and government), Q

Capital consumption allowances, Q

298. Government surplus or deficit

1952

§4

S5 l
i

§7

©a

^ @a

Si

70

n

72

73 1974

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

17

Section A

NATIONAL

Chart A10

REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

T

AND

(Kw.)

(July) (tyr.)
P
T

[Annual rate, billion dollars (1958)
5«5. 6NP in 1958 dollars, 8

273. Final sates, 19S8 dollars, Q

246. Change in business inventories, 1958 dollars, Q

231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, 1958 dollars,

247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars, Q

248. Fixed investment, residential structures, 1958 dollars, a

261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, 1958 dollars, 0

249. Gross auto product, 1958 dollars, 8

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69. 70, and 72,




18

AUGUST 1973

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Gross National Product Shares
guly)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

101

230A. Personal consumption expenditures as percent of GNP, Q

241A. Fixed investment, nonresidential,
as percent of GNP, Q

266A. State and local government
purchases of goods and services
of goods and services as percent of GNP, 0
*^

244/i. Fixed investment, residential structures as percent of GNP, Q

24SA. Change in business inventories as percent of GNP, Q
National Income Shares
280A. Compensation of employees as percent of national income, Q

282A. Proprietors' income as
s
lierceirt of iratfonafincome, Q

288A. Corporate profits and Inventory valuation

284A. Rental income of persons as percent of national income, Q

MDii S3

^

i
i

^

W8

if)

d©

El

©1

288JI. Net interest as percent of national income,

n

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.


i
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart Bl J

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Leading Indicators
P1

(May) (Fab.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Marginal tyployment Adjustments
1. Average
manufacturing (hours)
41

^

B

4H

iBtirttai^^

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale)

S3

54

BB

56

57

§8

IS

6©

61

62

65

§6

67

SS

7©

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.




20

AUGUST 1973

Section B
Chart Bl

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Au&)
T

(tow.) (Nov.)
P
I

(May) (Feb.)
P T

50. Number of job vacancies, tnfg. (thousands)

46. Help-waited advertising (index: 1967-100)

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (ann. rate, bil. man-hours)

*4I. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)

ons engaged in nonagricultural
activities (millions)

1952

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62! 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73 1974

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

IIUI

21

Section B

c

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Bl

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
duly)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P I

Comprehensive Unemployment

*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)

45, Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)
34
5 t=
87-

40. liiemployment rate, married males
hscaler
^J
J**S

Lagging Indicators

Long-Duration Unemployment
Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
1=

1952 SS

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73 1074

Current data for tfwse series are shown on page 75.




22

AUGUST 1973

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B2

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

Roughly Coincident Indicators

*200. GHP in current collars, Q (ann, rate, hil. dol.)

*205. GNP in 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)

53. Wages and salaries in mining,
manufacturing, construction
(ann. rate, hil. dol.)
-

1952

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

6;:!

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73 1974

Note: For this economic process (i.e.. Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade}, no leading or lagging Indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

23

Section B

[ Chart: B2

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
'.) (Nov.)
P

T

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

*56. Manufacturing and trade sales

59. Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars

NOTE: For this economic process (I.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade!, no leading or lagging indicators hove as yet been selected.
Current data for thsse series are shown on page 76.




24

AUGUST 1973

KCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B3

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P I

(May) (Feb.)

(Wow.) (Nov.)

13. New business incorporations (thousands)

*6. New orders, durable goods industries (bil. dol.)

8. Construction contracts, total value (index: 1967=100
MCD moving avg.-5-term)1
—

10. Contracts and orditrs, plant and equipment (bil. dol.)

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.

licit


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B3

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
tftotf.) (Now.)

P

T

New Investment Commitments-Con.
11. (few capital appropriations, nun factoring, Q (bii, do!.)1

24. Itafaetorm' new orders, capital goods industries,
mMm (Ml. ML) *" """
^

Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
of ftoarjarea; MCB moving avg.-6-term

28. Npw private housing un'ts started, total fann. rate, millions;
MCD moving avg.

*29. New htilding permits, private housing anils (index: 1967-100)

1952
]

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

7i

73 lt?4

This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 78.




26

AUGUST 1973

RCII

Sectioh B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B3

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

96. Manufacturers' unfit let) orders, durable goods industries (¥l. i
l

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q

Lagging Indicators

61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bil. TKrtT
I

;

!

--7

69. Machinery atiil equipment sales and business construction
expenditures (ann. rate, bill dol.)

1952

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

73 1974

*Thls Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

27

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B4

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)

(May) (Pel.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

P

T

Inventory Investment and Purchasing
245. Change in business inventories, Q
j (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

+10 -

I

=10 =

+30

T. Cfiange FiooFvaliie, manufacturing and trade inventories""
| (ann. rate, hit. dolr HCD moving avg.-B'-term)
*—

+20

+15-

0-

-sHO-

37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inveflt&ries
—

SO-

28 =
+10 T

20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies
(ann. rate, bil. dol.; MOD moving avg.-6-term)
ji

0-

-5-

lOO-i

26. Buying policy, production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer

25-

1952

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73 1974

Current data for these series ore shown on pages 78 and 79.




28

AUGUST 1973

BCII

Section B
Chart

B4

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(Now.) (Nov.)
P

C^

T

T

Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bil. do).; MCfl moving avg.-4-term)

Lagging Indicators

*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dol.)

65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e.. Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.

BCII


AUGUST 1973


29

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B5

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators
»M

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug)

P

T

P

T

(May) (Feb.)
F T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Sensitive Commodity Prices
~a nastrial naterufc prices (Max: 1867=100)

Stock Prices
19. Stock prices, 90 GMMM sticks (Mex: 1941-43=10)

Profits and Profit Margins
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (m. rate, bil. del.)

Corporate profits after taxes, 1958

22, Mdv profits (aflat toes) to income originating
in corporate busisess, Q (percent)

15. Profits (after taxts) per dollar of sales, maiafacturi^ Q (ceits)

*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, fflamifacturing (index: 196MOO)

Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80.




30

AUGUST 1973

KCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.

B5

Leading Indicators—Con.

34. Net cast) flow, corporate, current dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.

35. Net cash flow,
Q (ann. rate, bit. do

Roughly Coincident Indicators

Comprehensive Wholesale Prices

55. Wholesale prices; industrial commodities {index-. 1967=100)

58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1967=100)

©g

d©

§7

§§

©D

Current data for these series are shown on page 60.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
IM.JP
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

31

Section B

^?1

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B5 j PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS -Con.
Lagging Indicators

Unit Labor Costs

Unit labor cost, total private economy63. Index, Q (1967=100)

63c. Change over 1-quarter spans, Q (ann. rate, percent)

68. Labor cost (curr, dol.) pur unit of real corporate product, Q (dollars)

Current data for theio serlss are shown on page 80.




32

AUGUST 1973

KCII

Section B
Chart

B6

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT

Leading Indicators
(Kay) (Fsfe.)

Ffows of Money and Credit
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2)
(ann. rate, percent; moving avg.-6-term)

103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks and
nonbank institutions (M3) (ann. rate, percent; moving avg.-6-term)

85. Change in money supply (M1) (ann. rate, percent; MCB moving avg.-6-term) (

t

ti-t - - <

33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, hil. dol.;
MCD moving avg.-G-term)

$n
Currenn data tor these series are shown on page 81.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

33

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

f Chart ^el MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.

P

T

Flows of Money and Credit-Con.

*113. Chafe in consumer installment debt (an. rate, bit. dol.)

118. Total private borrowing, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)

Credit Difficulties

14. Utilities of business failires (mil. dol.-iiverted scale; MCD noviif avg.-6-tera)

JfL

, II

39. Deliftfraflcy rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans (percent-inverted scale)

)i©eg ii §4 se e© wu

©a

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.




34

AUGUST

1973

lt€l»

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B6

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
p
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

93. Free reserves (hil. doL-inverted scale)

115. Treasury bond yields (percent)

117, Municipal bond yields (percent)

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

35

Section B
I

YOJCm BWDOT'©^! Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B6

I

- • ,.

. .-. - - - - - -

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
;

Lagging Indicators

Outstanding Debt

68. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)

*72. Commercial and Industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil. dol.)

Interest Rates
*67, Bank rates on short-term business loans,
Q (percent)

118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.




36

AUGUST 1973

KCII

L:

Selected Indicators by Timing

Section B
Chart B7

COMPOSITE INDEXES

(fto.) (Ocf.)

(July) (Aug.)

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

P

T

810. Twelve leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted1
($6^1,5,6,10,12,16,17,19,23,29,31,113)

-8

f

^

-2

I five coincident indicators, estimated
aggregate economic activity(series 41, 43, 47,52,56)

825. Deflated index
(series 41,43,47,520,

}

830. Six lagging indicators
(series 44,61,62,67 L 71,72)

Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+} in months from reference turning dates,
1 Reverse trend adjusted Index of \Z leaders contains the same trend as the index of l> coincident Indicators,


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
AUGUST
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1973

ltd!

37

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS! Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.

[Chart B7^

(Nov.) (Oct.)
I

813. tbrpp &MpKtyW6flt adjistiwjffts
(serits 1, 2, 3, 5)

/V\ /*\"
.L—/ VN \ — /

V

114. Capital bmsl

(series 6,10,12, 29)

IIS. Nnmnn UnstMit art pMikasHif (series 23,25,31, 37)

816. PrsfitaWflly (swiss 16,17, 19)

817. S«s ttw fkacial fltws (series 33, 85,112,113)

1948 49

SO


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
38
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

51

§a

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73 1974

AUGUST 1973

BCI»

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Section B

NBER SHORT LIST

Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
T

(Niw.) (Oct.)
T

(Km.) (Ko«.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing Mrs)

*5. Average weekly initial claims. State unemployment
insurance (thousitflds-inverted scale)

*12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100)

Contracts and
and equipment

!j

:

i

*S. | New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100)

7\

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73 1974

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 77, and 78.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ltd*

39

Selected Indicators by Timing

Section B
Chart B8
-

.-

--,-

-.

- -•-

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

. ,- :J

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July! fAjiR!
P
I

m

*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
(aim. rate, Ml. ttol.; MCfl moving avg.-6-term)

23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1967=100)

*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)

"16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol,)

*113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

7©

711

Current data for these series are shown on pages 78, 79, 80, and 81.




40

AUGUST 1973

KCII

Selected Indicators by Timing

Section B
Chart

B8 11 NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
1

(July) (Aug.)

(July) (Apr.)
P

T

(Majj)(Feb.)
Is

T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
I

*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

GNP in 1958 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

*47. Industrial production (index: 196MOO)

41. Employees on nonagricultural
payrolls (millions)

43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)

Current data for these series are shown on pages 75 and 76.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

41

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Section B

1 Chart B8

I NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Lagging Indicators
(Neii.) (0£t)
P

(July) (Aus.)

I

P

(My) (Apr.)

T

P

(Now.) (Wev.)

(May) (Feb..)

T

IF

P

T

I

*44. Uwwploym^ rate, person menployeil 15 weeks and over (pircMt-jiwted stall)

*G1. Basins expuditares w* plant art etpipaiit, Q (am. rats, bit. riol.)

*62. Later MSt per Hflit ef Otitpit, ttamifsctiriig (iftriex: 1967^100)

72. CoiBfnerciaJ and industrial itas o*itstafidingr
weekly rsporttig large cwiwercial terts (ill. tol.)

*67. Baot rates on stiort-tm business loats, 0 (percsnt)

1948

49

UO

Bl

92

S3

54

59

S6

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73 1974

Current data for those series are shown on pages 75, 78, 79, 60, and 82.


42


AUGUST 1973

ItCII

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

AGGREGATE SERIES
(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

61. Business expflitures for new

110100-

80-

(a) Actual ex(*nditures (ann. rate, bil. dol.;

70-

60-

50-

40-

30 •
110-

(b) S&conti anticipations as percent of actual (percent}

105-

k

A

... ..Tt.

100-

95-

110-.

(c) First HticjiiatiMS as percat of actual (perceit)
105-

Iltllrl JI '.

100-

95-

1957

58

59

Current
 data for* these series are
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
AUGUST
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1973

BCII

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

shown on page 84.

43

Section C
Chart

Cl

AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.

(Nov.) (Now.)
IP
T

410. Manufacturers' sales, total value, Q

412. Manufacturers1 inventories, total book value,
Q (bil. dot.)

414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories: percent considered high
toss permit considered tow, ft (percent)

416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity: percent considered
""inadequate less percent considered excessive,
Q (percent-inverted scale)

>-Ar-

-^---X-

'*••••'

data for these scries are
Current


44

shown on page 84.

AUGUST 1973

ItCII

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS &m INTENTIONS

Chart Cl

AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.

(Nov.)

(July) (Apr.)

P

I

F

(Nov.)
T

T

420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago, 0,
(a) Percent of households reporting no change in family income (percent)

(b) Percent of households reporting higher family income (percent)

(c) Percent of households reporting lower family income (percent)

425. Mean probability of substantial changes in income of household, Q
(a) Mean probability of increase in family income (percent) .../
(b) Increase less; decrease (percent)

,»,./

(c) Mean probability of decrease in family income (percent) ^ . . ^ ,,^v
..^
«0. Kuifiber Dt (few cars pafcteMITy hOOs§iranis7t (an. rate, mil. care

:

:

--- — —"

— ~* "

(b) Actial, 2-quarter moving avg.

c1 C>

—— -* - - = -

1

i::: !!J.

.__.
-L..

C5. Index^oT consumer selttimeBf;TTIs(. TTM^l| y - — - __ ___^_ & _^_. ^ _ _ _ ^ P.ju-,r±^ ____._^ t __.

-.^.^

*.

•*
\

.••-. /\

*••

r

.••*"

X"** .*»•. .-•"" *
*y*

X

**»*

*v

/

.•*"**•. .».
*

••**••**

'•V

. J;

-

;-J] -T
— — -

S©

S@

61

ii

66

-

j

„ _"-,-_- =; -- - S -3—

F^i=^^35is.K,.^^J

3

S -i

^r

-

r

"V — .--.^^ff*^,^ __ ^^., ^.._ ,,.
7 \
_ ,__j^._
6©

^

ni

?T
— -

-

s
:

1
"V ..*-. .-*

S8

- — •= -

\

V

1957

•*

-=

1 r 7

ctuafdata (perc ent)

^_

<

B :S1(.^^.«w^. ^

..^

0

1

j

70

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
I U
E )
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

45

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart C2

DIFFUSION INDEXES

(July) (Apr.)
P

T

-.) (Nov.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

DlttetM indexes: parcsrt rfetig
at tamtoal party)

D61. BisiMss experiitirw far new plait am) eppwt, all imtetrtw (1-8 span)

too-

100'

w-jfl
\<&)

n*
D440. Hew orders, itaititfactif lug (44 spao)1

D442. Net profits, ruaflnfactariRg aid trade (4-Q span)

D444. Net sales, naBifactaring ari trate (4-Q spa)1

D446. Noroter of employees, raaoufacturiHg art trade (4-1

(.\-J

t^
e^>

J

Current d<rta for thene series are shown on p«9« 65.
it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

1
This is
 a copyrighted series used by permission;


46

AUGUST 1973

KCII

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTESSmONS

Chart C2

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

(Now.) (Km.)
P
T

Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal Barter)
0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

0460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1

B4fiT Selling pi ices, retalflrarfe (4-Q span)1

X

<y.

19i7
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.

'This is
 a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

47

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart DlJ FOREIGN TRADE

(July) (Aug.)
P

(July) (Apr.)

(May) (Feb.)

P I

T

P

(Now.) (Nov.)
P
T

T

500. Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.»6-ter^

902. Exports, except military aid (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.--6-term)

506. Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
(bil. tJol, MCD moving avp,^term)

508. Export orders, HU .electrical macliinery
; 1957-59^100; MCD iiviig avg.-4*term)

512. General imports (bil. dol.;

1952

S3

54

iS

5i

B7

18

5S

60

61

S2

§3

Current data for these series are shown on page 86,




48

AUGUST 1973

ItCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

(July) (W
F

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (ftb.)

T

F T

TST TarancelTlsas and semces ;X

515. Balance on goods, services, and remittances

517. Balance on current account

519. Balance on current account
and long-term capital

521. Net liquidity balance

522. Official reserve transactions balance

Ii52 53

§4

5§

§6

57

5S

§9

8®

61

62

63

84

71

72

73 1974

Current data for these series are shown on page 87.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
I , 1 AUGUST 1973
N1
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

49

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Qchart D2J BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AMD MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
Chart D2

(Ayg.)
T

i (Apr.)

(May) (Feb.)

I

P

I

Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services

I Billion Mars I

ft

530. liquid liabilities to all foreigners, outstaying at end of period

foreign official agencies, outstanding at

534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve positta at em) of period

S3

i4

3§

m

i?

Si

Si

f©

i
l

it

d

Current data for tttese terfai are shown on page 87. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.




50

AUGUST 1973

ItCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

(My)
P

(Ayg.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

T

Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants

Annual rate, billion dollars

123 Excess of receipts
Excess of payments

Goods and survices-

250, Balance on goods aod services

Merchandise, adjusted-

536.

income, mlfflary^saler
and expenditures, and other services--

1952 il

§4

li

SS

1?

i®

Sf

i©

©I

62

n n n

Current data for these series are shown on page 67. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
I»U) AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

51

Section D
Chart D2

KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AMD MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

'.) (Nov.)
T

(My) (Apr.)
P T

T

Annual rate, billion dollars

Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
El] Excess of receipts (inflow)
EI3 Excess of payments (outflow)1
InvestiiRt income-542. Income on U.S. investments abroad

543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.

Travel_545. Payieflts by UJ. travelers abroad
^ . ^-^*~*-*"*-»~^1
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.

Military sales and expenAtires-

S3

54

55

S6

S7

88

§9

§©

SI

S2

§9

@6

67

S8

Current data for these series are shown on page 86, Annual totals are used prior to I960.




52

AUGUST 1973

KCII

Section D
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Chart D2

(July)
P

T

P

T

Annual rate, billion dollars

Capital Movements Plus Government
Honmilitary Unilateral Transfers

Excess of receipts (inflow)
13] Excess of payments (outflow)
mfecfinveftmentS"

580. Foreign investments in the TEST

Securities investments-

.

...

565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities

^ ^
- 564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities

570. Government grants and capital transactions, net

575. Banking aid other capital transactions, net

1951 S3

§4

Si

iS

S?

Si

SS

S©

®1

62

®3

§4

71

n

73 1974

Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

53

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D3

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

(July) (Apr.)
P I

T

(May) (Fits.)
P T

(Nov.)
T

Receipts and Expenditures

600. Federal surplus or deficit, natural income and product accounts, Q (am. rate, kit. dot.)

601. Federal receipts, national mm and product accomls, Q (am. rate, lit: tot.)

602. Federal expenditures, national income! and product accounts, Q (ami. rale, bit (hi.)

15

§4

§S

§@

5?

S©

§©

d©

Current data for thaso serlat are shown on page 89.




54

AUGUST 1973

BCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D3

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.

(J'Ji/)
?

(Aug.)
I

'

(July) (flpr.)
P T

P

P

T

T

Defense Indicators
284. National defense purchases, (i (ann. rate, bil dot

616. Defense Department obligations, total
(bit. dol.; MOD moving avg-6-term)

647. New orders, defense products industries
(bil. dol,; MCD moving avg.-6-i

648. New orders, defense
products (bil. dol.; MCO
moving avg.-6-term)
62S. Military contract awards in U.S.
(bil. doi.; HCD moving avg.-6-lerm)

il 54
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
IP AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

55

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D4

PRICE MOVEMENTS

(Mow.) (Kov.)
P
I

(Apr.)
T

211. Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(variable weights prior to 1965), Q (index: 1958-100)

211c. Change in fixed weighted price index, gross private product,
over Huarter

781c- Change in consumer (trice index, ail items (seasonally adj.)-Six-month spans (ann. rate)

1SS2

54

S5

5S

S7

5S

59

61

it

S3

64

65

6i

67

68

69

70

71

72

7i 1974

int changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annuallzed changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.




56

AUGUST 1973

ItCII

KEY

Section D
Chart

D4

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.

(JuW (Apr.)

(July) WMB-)

F

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

F T

(Nov.)
T

751. Processed foods and feeds

i^iUJ^Mi0!11^'!5 (Sfi3sonallydj.)--

%^®^^
>

Six-month spans (ann. rate)

" 'M

1952 S3

54

5§

§6

57

58

§9

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

6S

69

70

71

72

73 1974

r

On*-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they moy be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these ssries are shown on page 91.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

57

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

p I

Average hourly earnings of production mortars,
private nonfarm econmy (annual data prtor to 1964)740. Curreit dollar earnings (index: 1967=100)

96-

859, Real spendable avg. weekly earnings, §QM£ri,
or NMSipervisory workers (1967 dollars)

D

Q
Average hourly contpisatioaf all employes,
private nonlarm

745. Current dollar compensation, Q
(index: 1967=100)
746. Real compensation,
Q (index: 1967=100)

770. Output per man-hour, total private
economy, Q (index: 1967=100)

Output per man-hour, total private Honiara,

81

S4

SS

Si

57 SS

§§

SS

70

71

12

Current data for these series are shown on pages 9Z and 93.




58

AUGUST 1973

IICII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D
[Chart D55 | WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con,

P

T

P

T

Change in avg:iRHifTy earnings of prtBicfion workers,
private nonfarm kmy. adj.1--

Six-month spans (ann, rate)
<

'i 4

'

'*— '* 'lii*^

t

- "\*wMrp /f
V T .'

740c. Current dollar earnings Arm"
arcings

w

I'V V l~i'

V

i' V

w r i"V*ri^*lit

' *SiW'
' J 'if

tnth spans8
One-month s '

741t. Real earnings

\
\

-,ia^
'-^W

•

, fc i!
,
' i; :;•-. i!
/ !i ,< jk H

|j JrtU/WLjiil ;

j* i 'j't

in avg. hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy, Q-

Six-month spans (ann. rate)

745c. Current dollar compensation
r &ie-quarter span (ann. rate)

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries--

7'!8. First year avg. changes, Q (ann. rate).
Productivity

749. Average changes over life
contract, Q (ann. rate)
1770c. Change in output per man-hour, total private economy, Q
i
One-quarter span (ann. rate)

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 20ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annuallzed changes over 6-month spans. See basic data tablet for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

BCII

59

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D6j CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

(Kat.) (Raw.)

P

I

Civilian Labor Force

845. Females 20 years and over

19S2 B3

S4 SS Si

§7

BS

Si

SO

i
l

§4 ss 66 if

@a §9 70

Current data for these series are shown on page 94,




60

AUGUST 1973

ItCII

Chartjl ] ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Ju.V)
F

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

I

Pay) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Wow.)
P
T

Gross National Product in 1958 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

1951 53

54

55

§6

57

58

S3

§4

Current data lor these series are shown on page 95.
'Trend line of 3,5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 195S) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 2nd quarter 1973. See special note on page 95.


AUGUST 1973


ItCIt

61

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart E2 I ANALYTICAL RATIOS

850. Hfo, otiiptit ID c^ily, raaDiifacfuringJ (percent]

851. M0. hveitortes to safes, mamjfatfmiTrg ait trade (ratio)

851 Mo, unfilled orders to shipments,
Manufacturers' durable goods industries (ratio)

853, Ratio, protetien of hrsiness efjdipment to consumer goods

Ratio, help-wanted advertising to ntmto«r
of persons anemployed (ratio)

857. Vacancy rate in total
rental busing, Q (percent)




62

AUGUST 1973

KCII

Section E
Chart

E3

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Leading Indicators
(Jo*)
P

P

T

P

T

T

Percent rising
01. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-^! industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span----)

06. Jew orders, durable goods industries-36 industries (9-mo. span —-, 1-mo. span— -)

011. Newly approved capital appropriations-!? industries (3-0 span****, 1-0 span-—)1

034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits-about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span)

019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks--?] induslries (9-mo. span —, 1-mo. span——)

023. Industrial materials prices~13 industrial materials (9-mo. span—,1-nto. span—-)

k-

05. Initial claims, State unemployment jnsurancEi-47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span —>, 1-mo. span

S3

B4

Si

1©

S^

i@

if

i@

<§&

il

©i

S4

@i

i©

i?

d§ m n n

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.


AUGUST 1973


BCII

63

Section E

ANALYTICAL

Chart^ EjT] DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Aug.)
T

P

(Ksw.) (Now.)
P
T

T

Percent rising

Ml. Employees on ^agricultural payrolls--*!) industries (6-mo. span — , 1-mo. span —

D47. Industrial pd«ction--24 industries (6-mn. span—f 1-mo. span—)

D58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods-22 industries (6-mo. span — ,1-mo. span—-)

DM. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—.-)

D

1992 S3

54

i5

ii

57

19

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

Currant data for these series are shown on page 96.




64

AUGUST 1973

BCII

Section E
RATES OF CHANGE

| Chart E5

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

Percent change, annual rate

200. (c) GNP in current dollars (1-8 span)

m

205. (c) GNP in constant dollars (1-Q span)

I. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41,43,47,52,56)

48. Man-hours in nonagricuitural establishments

t|

47. Index of industrial production

11957

58

Si

6©

61

62

63

64

6§

66

@7

68

§0

7©

71

72

73

74 1975

To locate basic data for theie rates of change, consult *AIphabeticaJ Index—Series Finding Guide,* pp. 119, 120, and 121.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

65

Chart Fl ! CONSUMER PRICES

Q

Current data for the so series are shown on page 103.




66

AUGUST

1973

Section F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart F2

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

(July) (ftpr.)
T

P

T

(May) (fife.)
P T

(Kw.)

Industrial production-

M%>&

SI

Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1973
IM.JP
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

67

Section F
Chart

F3

STOCK PRICES

Currant data for these series are shown on page 104.




68

AUGUST 1973

KCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter

200. Current dollars
a. Total

b. Difference

(Ann. "rate,
bil.dol.)

{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

205. Constant (1958) dollars
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

a. Total

b. Difference

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

210. Implicit price deflator
a. Total

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

b. Difference

(Index:
1958-100)

(Index:
1958=100)

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

1970

First quarter ..,
Second quarter ,
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter

958.5
970.6
987.4
991.8

+9.6
+12.1
+16.8
+4.4

+4.1
+5.1
+7.1
+1.8

721.2
722.1
727.2
719.3

-3.9
+0.9
+5.1
-7.9

-2.1
+0.5
+2.9
-4-3

132.9
134.4
135.8
137.9

+2.0
+1.5
+1.4
+2.1

+6.4
+4.6
+4.1
+6.4

1,027.2
1,046.9
1,063.5
1,084.2

+35.4
+19.7
+16.6
+20.7

+15.0
+7.9
+6.5
+8.0

735.1
740.4
746.9
759.0

+15.8
+5.3
+6.5
+12.1

+9.1
+2.9
+3.6
+6.6

139.7
141-4
U2.4
142.8

+1.8
+1.7
+1.0
+0.4

+5.5
+4.9
+2.8
+1.3

1,112.5
1,142.4
1,166.5
1,199.2

+28.3
+29.9
+24.1
+32.7

+10,9
+11.2
+8.7
+11.7

768.0
785.6
796.7
812.3

+9.0
+17.6
+11.1
+15.6

+4.9
+9.5
+5.8
+8.1

144.9
145.4
146.4
147.6

+2.1
+0.5
+1.0
+1.2

+5.7
+1.6
+2.8
+3.3

1,242.5
rl,272.0

+43.3
r+29.5

+15.2
r+9.9

829.3
r834-3

+17.0
r+5.0

+8.7
r+2.4

149.8
rl52.5

+2.2
r+2.7

+6.1
r+7.3

1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
fear
and
quarter

215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars

217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars

NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in current dollars

222. Personal
income in current dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current

dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. clol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

225. Constant
(1958) dollars
{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
{Ann. rate, dol.)

1970

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

4,697
4,744
4,812
4,819

3,534
3,529
3,544
3,495

788.8
797.4
809.3
806.3

785.8
807.7
816.8
822.9

668.2
689.0
702.4
707.2

524.2
535.8
541.6
537.4

3,274
3,367
3,423
3,436

2,569
2,619
2,640
2,611

4,979
5,063
5,130
5,216

3,563
3,580
3,603
3,651

835.9
853.6
865.6
882.7

840.0
859.5
870.2
884.4

727.4
744-0
752.0
760.4

547.8
554.6
556.4
560.9

3,526
3,598
3,628
3,658

2,655
2,682
2,684
2,698

5,342
5,476
5,580
5,724

3,688
3,765
3,811
3,877

911.0
928.3
949.2
978.6

910.8
926.1
943-7
976.1

772.8
785.4
800.9
828.7

565.7
r571.6
r579.3
r595.1

3,711
3,765
3,831
3,955

2,716
2,740
2,771
2,841

5,920
r6,051

3,951
r3,969

1,015.0
pi,039.4

996.6
rl,019.0

851.5
r869.7

603.9
r604.8

4,057
r4,137

2,878
r2,877

1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources arei shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,10, and 65.

IICII

AUGUST 1973




69

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

Year
and
quarter

232. Durable
goods, total in
current dollars

231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars

230. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars

234. Automobiles
in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

237. Service in
current (Jailors

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rfite,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dot.)

1970

604.6
614.0
623.7
628.3

474-3
477.5
480.9
477.5

90.9
92.8
93.4
88.1

62.1
62.7
63.9
64.5

28.8
30.1
29.5
23.6

257.1
261.2
265.7
271.1

256.6
SS9.9
264.6
269.1

650.0
662.2
673.0
683.4

489.5
493.6
498.0
504.1

100.3
101.9
105.4
106.7

66.0
67.3
68.6
70.6

34.3
34.6
36.8
36.1

273.5
278.0
279.8
283.5

276.1

700.2
719.2
734.1
752.6

512.5
523.4
531.0
540.5

111.5
115.1
120.2
122.9

74.9
77.0
78.4
81.7

36.6
38.1
41.8
41.2

288.8
297.9
302.3
310.7

300.0
306.2
311.6
319.0

779.4
r795.6

552.7
r553.3

132.2
r!32.8

87.1
r88.2

45.1
r44.6

322.2
r330.3

325.0
r332.6

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter

1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

aaa.3
237.8
293-2

1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter

240. Total

241. Nonresidential
fixed investment

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

242. Nonresidential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}

243. Producers'
durable equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}

244. Residential
structures

245. Change in
business inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter

98.5

35.6
36.1
36.4
36.5

64.3
64.9
66.5
62.0

31.1
29.5
30.4
33-8

+2.1
H-9
1-6.0
+5-1

145.5
152.7
153.8
160.8

101.4
103.6
104.7
108.0

37.0
37.6
38.4
38.5

64.4
66.0
66.3
69.5

37.1
41.5
44.8
47.5

47.0
+7.6
+4.3
+5.3

167.5
174.7
181.5
189.4

114.0
116.3
118.3
124.3

41.0
41.5
41.3
43.0

73-1
74-9
77.0
81.2

51.8
52.8
54.5
56.9

+1,7
+5*5
+8.7

194-5
r!98.2

130.9
10.34.1

45.3
47.2

85.5
r86.9

59.0
r59.6

+4.6
rU.5

133.1
135.4
139.2
137.4

100.0
101.0
102.8

1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

+8.2

1973
First quarter .,
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available,
Graphs of these series ara shown on pages 11 and 12.

70




AUGUST 1973

ItCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

0

Qj FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
250. Net exports
of goods and
services

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

2153. Imports
oj: goods and
services

252. Exports
of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

260. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

264. National
defense

262. Federal

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

266. State and
local

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1970
+3.6
+3.9
+4.2
+2.8

61.5
63.1
63.9
63.2

57.9
59.2
59.7
60.4

217.2
217.3
220.3
223.3

99.5
95.8
94.7
94.8

+3.8
+0.5
+1.1
-2.2

65-9
67.1
69.1
63.0

62.1
66.6
68.0
65.2

227.9
231.5
235-5
242.2

96.1
96.7
98.2

-5.5
-5.7
-3.8
-3.5

70.3
69-9
74.0
79-7

75-8
75.6
77.7
83.2

0.0
r+2.8

First Quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

89.7

89-7

r97.2

r94.4

78.5
74.0
73.2
72.6

117.8
121.5
125.6
128.5

101.2

72.3
71.3
70.3
72.4

131.8
134.8
137.3
141.0

250.3
254.2
254.7
260.7

106.0
106.7
102.3
102.7

76.5
76.6
71.9
72.4

144.3
147.5
152.4
158.0

268.6
T275.3

105.5
r!07.3

74.3

163.0
rl68.0

1971

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

,

1972

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
F-"ourth quarter

. .

E

Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS

Year
and
quarter

Durable goods
270! Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)

NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

280. Compensation
of employees

Nondurable goods

r74.2

282. Proprietors'
income

284. Rental income
of persons

275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1970

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter .......
Fourth quarter

184.1
184-9
186.2
175.0

+0.4
+0.2
+5.2
-1.1

277.8
281.9
285.9
290.9

+1.7
+4.6
+0.8
+6.2

594-1
600.7
610.1
610.6

67.8
67.4
66.2
66.2

23.2
23.8
24.2
24.4

187,4
188.1
192.8
196.2

+4-1
+4.2
+0.7
-0.9

294.7
297.8
302.4
304.9

+2.9
+3.4
+3.7
+6.2

627.6
638.8
648.8
661.2

67.9
68.3
68.6
70.2

24.4
24.7
24.7
24.4

205.5
211.4
216.8
222.8

+0.4
+3.2
+5.8

+10.4

309.7
319.6
323.1
332.5

+1.3
+2.3
+2.9
-2.2

684.3
699.6
713.1
731.2

72.5
73.2
74.1
77.1

24.1
22.6
24-9
24-9

238.1
r242.4

+0.3

rf7.3

757.4
r774.9

80.6
81.5

24.7
24.6

1971

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

+4.4

346.9
r357.3

r-2.8

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources ani shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,14,15, and 16.

KCII

AUGUST 1973




71

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLlARS-Con.
Year
and
quarter

286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment

SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS

288. Net interest

(Ann. rate,
fail, del.)

290. Gross saving

(Ann. rale,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment

292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

298. Government
surplus or deficit

296. Capital consumption
allowances

1970

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter

69.8
69.9
71.3
65.9

33.8
35.6
37.5
39.2

141.5
144.0
147.0
139.8

46.2
57.2
60.8
60.6

9.8
10.1
10.8

75.8
80.5
80.9
83-4

40.2
41-4
42.7
43.5

148.4
153.6
154.4
158.7

86.2
88.0
91.5
98.8

43-9
44.8
45-7
46.6

p!09.0

47.9
49.4

8.4

84-7
86.3
88.1
90.0

-9.6
-12.6
-19.2

59.2
63.5
60.2
57.8

13.5
17.0
17.7
22.1

91.6
92.8
94.6
96.5

-15.9
-19.7
-IS. 4
-18.6

164.8
166.1
172.3
182.2

52.9
45.9
45.8
54.4

19.9
20.8
22.5
26.6

98.3
103.7
102.3
105.1

-3.9
•1-2.0
-3.8

190.4
P195.8

50.0
r51.0

24.6
p24.1

106.9
rlQ9.1

+8.9
p+11.7

+0.8

1971

First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ,.
Second quarter
Third quarter „ ,
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

Year
and
quarter

273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1968) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1968) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}

248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars

261. Government
purchases of goods
and services, total,
constant (1958)
dollars
{Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

bil. doL)

1970

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

719.3
717.7
722.3
714.8

+1.9
+4.4
+4.9
+4.5

78.5
78.3
78.6
73.5

22.2
20.8
21.8
24.1

29.3
33.0
31.6
20.0

142.3
139.1
138,0
137.8

729.3
733.8
742.9
754.3

+5.8
+6.5
+4.0
+4.7

74.8
75.5
75.6
78.4

25.9
28.3
29.9
31.7

37.2
34.8
37.7
35.9

136.7
136..7
138,6
141.6

766.9
781.3
790.0
806.0

+1.1
+4-3
+6.6
+6.3

81.5
82.5
83.4
87.5

34-0
34.2
34.7
35.3

36.1
37.7
41.0
41.4

142,7
144,0
U1..8
H3-5

826.0
r831.0

+3.3
r+3.4

91-2
r91.5

35.6
35.3

46.4
r45.5

144<> 4
rH5.2

1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®, Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at ths back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 1B, 17, and 18,

72




AUGUST 1973

ItCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Year
and
quarter

Percent of Gross National Product
230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures

244A. Fixed
Investment, residential structures

241 A. Fixed
investment,
nonresidential

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

245A. Change
in business
inventories

250A. Net exports of goods
and services

(Percent)

(Percent)

262A. Federal
Govt. purchases of
goods and services

266A. State and local
Govt. purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)

(Percent)

1970

63.1
63.3
63.2
63.3

10.4
10.4

63.3
63.3
63.3
63.0

9.9
9.9
9.8

62.9
63.0
62.9
62.8

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

r3.2
r3.0
3.1
3.4

+0.2
+0.5
+0.6
+0.5

+0.4
+0.4
+0.4
+0.3

+0.7
+0.7
+0.4
+0.5

+0.4
0.0
+0.1

10.0

3.6
4.0
4.2
4.4

10.2
10.2
10.1
10.4

4.7
4.6
4.7
4.7

+0.2
+0.5
+0.7
+0.7

10.5
no. 5

4.7
4.7

+0.4
+0.4

10.4

9.9

9.9
9.6
9.6

12.3
12.5
12.7
13.0

-0.2

9-4
9.2
9-2
9.3

12.8
12.9
12.9
13.0

-0.5
-0.5
-0.3
-0.3

9.5
9.3
8.8
8.6

13.0
12.9
13.1
13.2

0.0
r+-0.2

8.5
8.4

13-1
rl3.2

10.4

1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973

62.7
r62.5

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.

Year
and
quarter

Percent of National Income
280A. Compensation
of employees

284A. Rental income
of persons

282A. Proprietors'
income

288A. Net interest

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

286A. Corporate profits and
inventory valuation
adjustment

1970

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

75.3
75.3
75.4
75.7

8.6
8.5
8.2
7.8

2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9

8.8
8.8
8.8
7.8

4.3
4-5
4.6
4.6

75.1
74.8
75.0
74.9

8.1
8.0
7.9
8.0

2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8

9.1
9.4
9.3
9.4

4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9

75.1
75.4
75.1
74.7

8.0
7.9
7.8
7.9

2.6
2.4
2.6
2.5

9.5
9.5
9.6

10.1

4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8

74.6
P74.6

7.9
p7.8

2.4
p2.4

10.3
plO.5

4-7
p4.8

1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Thiird quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.

BUI

 AUGUST 1973


73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

£Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

TIMING CLASS ....

LEADING INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process
....

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Job Vacancies

*1. Average
workweek of
production workers,
manufacturing

Year
and
month

(Hours)

21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing

2. Access! Dn
rate, manufacturing

*5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance,
Stats programs'

{Per 100
employees)

(Hours)

(Thous.)

60. Number of
job vacancies,
manufacturing

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

(Per 100
•
employees)

48. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers

(1967-100)

(Thous.)

1971

88
86
84

78
78
79

1 <5

87
87

i ^

QT

79
80
A/

?7&
3PQ
3O3

i *i
1 Q

87
87

i A

A7

86
85
82

291

1.5
1.4
1.4

92
92
9A

83
ft/
ft*;

13

98
105
11
1

fto

1.2
12

1 1
10
1 /

16
1
17
1
126

q«

12Q
131

i n3

o/o

12
10
i n

13ft

i n^
10^

n Q
O

January . »
February
March . . . ,

39.9
39.8
39.8

2.8
2.9
2.8

3.7
3.7
3.9

293
286
296

1.7
1.6
1.5

April . . . . .
May ... ...
June

39.7
40.0

2.9
2 9
2 Q

3.9
3 9

284
2QO

1.6

3 7

?Q3

July
. . .
August . . . „
September

4,0 o

3 0

3 ft

3Q ft
^Q 6

2 Q

y 0
i n

October
November
December

39.9
40.0
40.3

•ag q

2 8

3.0
3.0

3.7
4.1

3.1

A 0

283
272

2.9
3.2
3.3

4 4
4.4
4.4

266
262
261

r

1972
January
February
March

,
,

40.1
40.5
40.4

April
May
June

.
„

40 7
A.O *S
40.6

3 5
3 A

/ /
/ &

260
261

3 A

A 0

2QT

40.6
40 6
40 8

3 4
3 *;

L L

260

I

2/8

3 A

1
4 •4

40 7
40 8
40 7

3 6
3 7
3 8

/ 6
/ <>

24.6
p/i

Q

I/ A
1 ^A

109

/

py 7
££{,{

10

1 1
6

17
1

pne*

1 7H

1PP

1 7^

119

1 7ft

July
„
August
„. . .
September . . „
October
November . . *
December

,

C

q

ftg
Q3

07
7 f

1 fV?

1 AQ
1 9
0

1973
January
February

March

AQ 3
|jj\/n n
/n Q

o 7
^. f

y r\
4.9

3

4 .8

<i

ooo

4.9

230

n Q
u,y
n Q
0.9

pod

O a

Q

3 •V

Q

April
May
June

40 9
•r/n 7

M> *•£

ftt n f.

—o o
rjj.o

July
August
September . . .

P40.9

P3.8

fu\ / 1
J>-7

I

E

Q

4-7
C -|

i \

p4-o
(NA)

<CJ>0

121

Ei\-r»n ft
[H^ru.o

•y»T TQ

238

r-iA Q
PU."

rij\_T rtrt
[H/plO8

fu\221

(NA)

/WA)

232

r!21
rial
rp!24
fu^nl ^1

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by(H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, ;!9, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current Dow values are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators {chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20,21, and 39.
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

74




AUGUST 1973

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Econornic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

HH EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
•l
il

Minor Economic
Process

48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments

(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)

Ml. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)

Long-Duration
Unemployment

Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment

Year
and
month

LAGGING
INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.

TIMING CLASS ....

42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey1
(Thous.)

*43. Unemployment rate, total1

(Percent)

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs2
(Percent)

40. Unemployment rate,
married males'

(Percent)

*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over1

(Percent)

1971

January
February
March

137.28
136.47
137.20

70,329
70,276
70,321

75,268
75,147
75,047

6.0
5.9
6.0

3.7
3.7
3.8

3.3
3.2
3.2

1.3
1.3
1.3

April
May
June

137.34
137.71
137.88

70,457
70,601
70,570

75,203
75,504
75,360

5.9
6.0
5.8

3.9
4.3
4.3

3.1
3.2
3.1

1.3
1.4
1.4

July
August
September

137.12
137.50
137.67

70,533
70,529
70,897

75,724
75,868
76,108

5.9
6.1
5.9

4.0
4.1
4.6

3.1
3.2
3.2

1.5
1.5
1.5

October
November
December

138.22
138.95
139.36

70,861
71,078
71,264

76,325
76, 540
76,631

5.9
6.0
6.0

4.4
4-1
3.8

3.0
3.3
3.2

1.5
1.5
1.5

January
February
March

139-76
140.40
140.87

71,545
71,747
72,033

77,182
77,225
77,756

5.9
5.8
5.9

3.4
3.4
3.5

3.0
2.9
2.8

1.4
1.5
1.4

April
May
June

141.70
142.05
142.66

72,224
72,534
72,705

77,896
78,120
78,421

5.8
5.8
5.5

3.5
3.6
3.6

2.9
2.8
2.9

1.3
1.3
1.3

July
August
September

142.26
142.67
143.73

72,694
73 ,016
73,268

78,339
78,451
78,677

5.6
5.6
5.5

3.6
3.3
3-4

2.7
2.6
2.8

1.3
1.3
1.3

October
November
December

144.27
144.60
144.52

73,58473,835
74,002

78,739
78,969
79,130

5.5
5.2
5.1

3.3
3.2
3.0

2.8
2.5
2.4

1.3
1.2
1.1

145.15
146.28
146.38

74,252
74,715
74,914

79,054
79,703
80,409

5.0
5.1
5.0

2.6
2.7
2.8

2.4
2.4
2.5

1.1
1.0
1.0

146.98
r!47. 50
rl47.65

75,105
r75,321
r75,432

80,606
80,749
H> 81, 271

5.0
5.0
4.8

E>2.6
2.7
2.7

2.4
2.3
2.3

0.9
0.9
0.9

E>pl48.09

E>P75,471

81,098

E>4.7

1972

1973

January
February
March

.

...

April
May
June
July
August
September

p2.7

D2.1

EDo.s

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by E); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21,22,41, and 42.
'Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for
computing this series. Prior to January 1972, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark. 2Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

ltd*

AUGUST 1973




75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

B
|

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
. ...

Comprehensive Production

*200. Gross national product
in current dollars

*205. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Year
and
month

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

Comprehensive Income

*47. Index of
industrial production

(1967=100)

*52. Personal
income

(Ann. "ate,
bil.dol.)

*56. Manufac53. Wages and
salaries in min- turing and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Sales of retail stores
*54. Current
dollar sales

(Mil.dol.)

59. Deflated
(1967 dollar)
sales
(Mil.dol.)

1

t )

1971

January
February . . .
March

1,027.2

735li

105.5
106.0
106.0

836.1
839.4
844-5

198.5
193.6
199.3

107,132
108,649
109,949

1,020.2

32,290
32,850
33,274

27,908
28,392
28,635

April
May
June

1,046.9

74614

106.5
107.4
107.4

849.0
854.4
875.1

200.5
202.3
202.6

110,632
111,732
112,938

1,039.2

33,578
33,502
33,827

28,798
28,585
28,740

July
August
September

1,0631s

746^9

106.7
105.6
107.1

865.0,
871.4
874.2

203.1
203.2
204.0

112,234
113,816
113,855

1,059.2

33,688
34,655
35,219

28,573
29,344
29,821

October
November
December

1,08412

75916

106.8
107.4
108.1

877.2
883.3
892.8

205.0
206.1
209.6

113,781
116,007
116,095

1,078.9

34,964
35,574
34,896

29,555
30,020
29,349

January
February .
March

1,1121s

768.0

108.7
110.0
rl. 6
il

901.5
912.8
918-0

211.2
214.5
216.8

118,299
117,998
120,239

1,110.8

34,886
35,345
36,450

29,291
29,553
30,426

April
May
June

1 142^4
,

7851 6

rll3.2
rll3.8
rlH-4

923.6
927.7
927.0

218.8
219.8
220.9

121,352
122,693
122,347

1,136*.9

36,296
37,141
36,822

30,272
30,874
30,558

July
August
September .

796.7

rll5.1
rll6.3
rl!7.6

935-2

1,166*.5

122,783
126,792
127,656

1,157!8

951.3

220.6
223.6
226.3

37,342
37,969
37,746

30,861
31,302
30,939

October
November
December

I,199l2

812 15

rl!9.2
r!20.2
r!21.1

967-0
977.6
983.6

229.0
231.1
232.7

130,336
131,918
133,483

1,191.0

39,106
38,713
39,417

31,975
31,551
32,099

l,242ls

829*3

r!22.2
rl23.4
r!23.7

989.1
997.4
1,003.3

235.1
238.2
239.5

136,863
138,910
1U,010

1,237.8

40,707
41,242
a, 979

32,881
•33,073
D33,264

[fi>r 1,272.0

E);r834.3

r!24.1
r!24.8
r!25.4

10 16
, 1 .
1,018*7
rl,026.6

241.8
244.1
r247.6

141,274
EX 142,694
p!42,446

[H>rl,267.5

41,135
r41,735
r 41, 218

32 > 327
r32,529
r31,9£7

E>pl26.3

E)pl,033.9

E>p249.3

1972

9U-4

1973

January
February .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .

(NA)

[H>p42,6l8

p32,935

October
November ........
December .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by ID; for
series that move counter to movements in genera! business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [fi>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23,24, and 41.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page
iii.

76




AUGUST 1973

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

I H FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
J

TIMING CLASS ....

LEADING INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process

F rm

° Emenr°rfisB8SSineSS

*12. Index of net
business
formation

Year
and
month

(1967=100)

New lnvestment Commitments

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

*B. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries

8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1

* 10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment

11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1

(Bil.dol.)

(1967=100)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense
(Bil.dol.)

9. Construction
contracts, commercial and
industrial
buildings'
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)

Revised**

1971

106.8
106.1
. 109.2

22,563
21,034
23,237

28.72
29.17
29.22

124
126
145

8.33
8.62
8.59

5.70

7.00
7.06
7.06

54.37
50.04
65.44

April
May
June

109.4
110.4
112.3

22,970
24,030
24?314

29.06
28.86
28.84

161
138
147

8.75
8.69
8.86

5." 52

7.13
7.18
7.31

54.82
63.40
62.83

July
August
September

112.7
113.5
112.6

24,726
25,165
23,450

29, .62
30 ,,83
29,86

151
153
151

8.49
9.03
8.83

5^90

7.10
7.32
7.34

60.67
54.82
70.72

October
November
December

114-7
115.8
116.0

25,152
25,677
25,921

30,49
31.19
31.25

137
155
160

9-04
9.38
9.43

5^90

7.62
7.82
8.02

61.75
68.70
66.69

January
February
March

115.3
115.1
117.5

24,871
25,055
26,862

32.16
32.04
32.45

160
155
159

9.27
9.29
9.77

7.90

eisi

59.65
66.72
66.68

April
May
June

118.7
119.2
118.4

26,681
26,243
26,303

33-80
33.99
35-40

167
165
154

10.16
10.38
10.44

7! 66

July
August
September

118.6
118.2
119.4

26,815
26,420
26,798

33-21
35-77
3"?. 29

155
180
187

10.59
10.27
11.66

October
November
December

121.0
120.8
120.7

27,417
26,387
27,614

37.13
37.46
33.32

171
177
163

119.7
120.5
0)122.6

27,173
28,640
E> 29,914

•39.22
•39.76
41.02

120.3
rl!9.7
118.9

r28,693
r28,422
27,873

CNA)

CNA)

Jsnuary
Fabruary
March

1972
8.15
8.30
8.70
8.93
8.98

65.53
81.95
70.51

?lo9

8.95
8.90
9.73

67.74
75.65
74.69

11.75
11.54
11.63

8.26

9.62
9.70
9.99

74-61
82.67
78.82

11
8
191
H>193

11.87
11.87
12.06

9.64

10.28
10.10
10.57

85.94
86.40
84-30

41.34
.42.45
(H)r43.02

177
173
183

11.90
12.58
P)rl3.64

10.62
10.92
rll.42

83-86
76.21
84.52

P42.71

el64

e!3.62

(H>pn.45

i)e90.02

1973

January
February
March

...

.

April
May
June
July
August
September

[H>P10.72

. .

•f
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by[H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, E>, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by[H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 IMBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 25, 26, and 39.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge .'Division (series 8 and 9), or The Conference Board (series 11).
See "New Features and Changes for This Tssue," page iii.

IIUI

 AUGUST 1973


77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS

....

Minor Economic
Process . .

fflj

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

LEADING INDICATORS

New Investment
Commitments-Con.

Backlog of Investment
Commitments

Investment Expenditures

Inventory Investment and Purchasing

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil.dol.)

Revised3

1971

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing1

{Bil.dol.}

*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

144-0
139.2
154.2

72.67
72.64
72.16

2,018
2,057
2,005

153.0
172.9
166.8

71.76
70.66
69.07

July
August
September .

2,100
2,182
2,037

181.3
175.6
174.9

68.82
69.22
69.22

October . . .
November .
December

2,058
2,219
2,396

177.5
182.2
186.9

69.54
69.94
70.15

1?! 98

2,439
®2,540
2,313

195-2
186.8
185-5

70.75
71.03
71.30

18*.47

2,204
2,318
2,315

184.9
176.2
189,7

72.10
72.85
75.33

July
August
September

2,244
2,424
2,426

189.2
196.6
203.9

75.73
76.82
78.36

October , . .
November . . . ,
December

2,U6

2,395
2,369

199.8
191.8
B> 206.7

79.68
80.28
81.99

2,497
2,456
2,260

192.4
190.4
183.5

S3. 43
85.07
88.03

April
May
June

2,123
r-2,413
r2,093

167.1
158.4
174.9

90.72
93.88
r97.65

July
August
September ,

P2,176

P156.5

DP98.95

April
May
June

.... .

,. ..

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construction expend!tures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

245. Change
in business
inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.).

*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total

37. Purchased
materials, compiwiss reporting higher
inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Percent
re.aortinp)

Revisecf

1,793
1,750
1,910

January
February . .
March . . .

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT

LEADING INDlCATORS-Con.

28. New private *29. Index of
new private
housing units
housing units
started, total
authorized by
local building
permits
(Ann. rate,
(1967-100)
thous.)

Year
and
month

H

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

103 .62
104.20
105.55

+7*.0

103.72
105.47
106.32

+7*. 6

104.19
104.43
108.12

+4-3

108,29
109.81
114-18

+5.3

86! 79

115.70
114.42
116.72

+i!?

87! 12

19*43

119.35
121.35
121.44

87! 67

20*.37

120.74
123.43
122.42

9l!94

125.66
128.20
128.08

+S.2

E>96ll9

135-46
134-42
134-43

a98!57

141.42
r!42.63
DPH6.21

79.32
13.25

81 ",61
18! 53

80 !75
18^2

83il8

+10.4
+10.3
+9.3

+11.3
+10.4
+4.1
+7.5
+7.7

...

+13.9

...

+5.1
+2.1

46
49
51
57
55
58
59
§1
41

+12.4

39
42
49

+5.4
+6.0
+3.4

49
52
51

1972

January . „ .
February »
March
April
May
June

.

22*29

+9.6
+5.5

+13.9
+4.5
+5.8

D+8.*7

+16.9
+16.7

52
52
47
44
56
59

+13.2
+16.1

+14. a

i>67
65
64

+4.*6

+25.7
+22.5
+16.2

62
63
59

r+4.5

+15.1
r+25.3
E>P+31.3

56
56
61

1973

January . .
February
March

25.12

H>p28.6a

(NA)

(NA)

62

alOl.80

October
November .
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by[H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93). current low values are indicated by [fi>- Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26,27,28, 39,40, and 42.
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
8
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.

78




AUGUST 1973

ltd*

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^H INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.

HI

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

LAGGING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.

Inventories

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

20. Change in 26. Prod, materials, combook value,
panies reportmf rs ' inventories of mtls. ing commitand supplies
ments 60 days
or longer©
(Percent
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
reporting)

Year
and
month

32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries©
(Percent
reporting)

25. Change in
unfilled
orders, durable gcods
industries
(Bil. dol.)

*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value

(Bil.dol.)

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices

Stock Prices

65. Mfrs.
inventories of
finished
goods, book
value

*23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices©

*19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks®

(Bil.dol.)

(1967=100)

(1941-43=10)

Profits and Profit Margins

Corporate profits after
taxes
*16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

18. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1971

January
February
March

-0.1
+0.6
-1.2

52
59
56

38
44
46

+0.07
-0.02
-0.48

175 .74
176 .SO
177 .08

34-26
34-37
34.57

105.9
107.2
107.8

93.49
97.11
99.60

43 -*8

32 .'7

April
May
June

+5.2
+3.2
+2.0

57
55
58

52
53
50

-0.39
- . 1
11
-1.58

178 .06
179 .23
179 .57

34.41
34.45
34.42

110.2
108.6
106.1

103.04
101.64
99.72

47 .l
'

34^8

July
August
September .

+2.2
-1.4
-3.3

57
55
52

48
49
48

-0.25
+0.40
+0.00

180 .P-9
180 .84
182 .00

34.18
34.27
34.56

104.7
106.1
107.5

99.00
97.24
99.40

49.0

35^8

October
November
December

+0.2
-0.2
+1.3

51
50
45

50
48
51

+0.31
+0.40
+0.21

182 .42
182 59
183 62

34-90
34-87
34.81

107.4
106.9
106.8

97.29
92.78
99.17

50.6

37.0

January
February
March

-1.2
+1.3
-2.9

53
55
56

52
52
58

+0.60
+0.28
+0.26

184 07
184 57
184 86

34.82
34.88
35.04

110.7
113.0
117.2

103.30
105.24
107.69

52.2

37.8

April
May
June

+0.3
+0.7
-1.1

51
56
56

58
60
60

+0.80
+0.75
+2.48

185 66
186 ,82
187 .19

35.15
35-28
35.55

119.5
124-3
123.8

108.81
107.65
108.01

53*.4

38.3

July
August
September

+5.0
+4.2
+0.2

54
57
56

63
63
65

+0.40
+1.08
+2.04

187 .68
189 09
190 49

35.59
36.07
35-98

123.7
124.6
124.8

107.21
1 10
1 . 1
109.39

55*.6

39.7

October
(November
December

+2.2
+1.7
+2.0

64
63
62

73
70
77

+0.82
+0.59
+1.71

191 58
192 92
194 15

35.71
35.70
35.80

128,1
131.6
134-8

109.56
115.05
117.50

60*.3

4i!i

+4,1
+6.0
+4.2

63
68
67

78
84
88

+1.44
+1.64
+2.96

19§ -30
198 .17
19< .52

35.72
35.80
36.06

139-3
147.5
155-3

66*.9

47.0

+4.2
+5.3

77
80
78

90
B>92
89

20( .79
+2.69
+3.16
r20; .90
i)r+3.76 (E>P20- .51

35-95
36.32
|H>36.70

158.2
162.9
170.1

E>82

88

1972

1973

January
February
March
April
May
June

.

...

E>+6.9

July
August
September

(NA)

p+1.30

NA)

(NA)

H>178.1
1
189.8

E>118.42
114.16.
112.42
110.27
107.22
104.75
2

[fi>p72.*6

i>P49.9

105.83
103. 98

October . .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movehent. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Current high values are indicated by E); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, W5, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the qack of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 IMBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28, 29, 30,40, and 42.
1
Average for August 7, 14? and 21. 3Average for August 1, 8, 15, and 22.

BCII

AUGUST 1973




79

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^H PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFiTS-Con.

Minor Economic
Process

Profits and Profit Margins-Con.

22. Ratio,
profits to
income
orig, in
corporate
business

15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all
mfg. corp.

*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.

(Percent)

Year
and
month

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

(Cents)

(1967-100)

Cash Flow

LAGGING INDICATORS

Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

TIMING CLASS ....

Unit Labor Costs

58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods®

63. Index

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

1 18
1.
112.4
112.7

121.0

34. Current
dollars

55. Index of
wholesale
prices,
35. Constant industrial
commod.®
(1958) dol.

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Net cash flow, corporate

Unit labor cost, total
private economy
63c. Change
over 1-Q
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)

68. Labor
cost (cur.

dol.) per
unit of gross
prod. (1958
dol.), corp.
(Dollars)

*62. Index
of labor
cost per
unit of output, mfg.

(1967-100)

X

( )

1971

January
February
March

77.3

5?!o

8U8
.* .

59^6

113 O
113.7
113.9

113.0
113.5
113.8

84^7

eiia

114-5
115.1
115.0

114.5
114.9
114-7

97.9
97.8
97.4

115-0
8?! 7

63.*7

97.5
97.1
r97.9

89.9

115-9
116.5
116.8

115.7
116.5
116.7

17
1O

931 6

66 !
i

117.6
117.9

116.9
117.4
117.8

125^7

118.1
118.5
118.7

18
1O

670

97.1
97.4
97,6

July
August
September

9.3

4^2

97.3
97.1
98.2

October
November
December

9.1

i'.l

in. 9

117.5
118.7
116.9

0.828

125-9

4.2

116.2
116.5
116.5

0.828

123^6

115 O

114-5
114-5
115.1

3*.B

June

0.824

1230

i!o

May

0.820

122.4

B.5

April ,

(*)

116.1
116.2
116.4

117.1
117.3
118.3

-0.6

112.2
112.5
112.8

96.4
96.6
96.8

4.5

2.9

10

1972

7.6

January . ,, ,
February
March

9U

April
May . .
June

90

4.2

r97.9
r98.4
r98.5

July
August
September

9O

40

r99.3
r99.8
rlOO.4

95*4

October .
November
Decembar .

9.*8

4^4

rlOO.6
rlOl.l
r!02.2

101.9

71.7

118.8
119.1
119.4

118.8
119.2
120.7

126.9

®4-7

rl02.2
rlQ2.9
rlOS.l

109*. 2

76!l

120.0
121.3
122.7

121.6
123.6
125-7

128 .'5

(NA)

r!04.4
r!05.6
H)rl05.9

H>P115,"8

E)p79.0

124.4
125-8
126.9

126.7
128.7

D126.9

4-2

. .

64.3

118.9
120.1

0.842

P119.0

-0.5
0.845

rll9.4
r!19.4
rl!9.6

0.850

.rl!9.0
:rll8.9
:rll8.2

0.853

:?118.2
rl!8.2
rl!8O

0.862

rl!9.2
r-119.7
rl!9.6

H)p0.874

0)130.9

rl21.0
P121.6
H>122.9

129.8

p!22.6

118.5
118.8

1.7
126O

2.0

1973

January
February
March .
April ..
May
June
July
August
September

10.5

B>pii.'i

plQ5.6

5.2

fH>7.6
Dl30.*9

October .
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated byE); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBE:R "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31, 32,40, and 42.
x
Soe "Ntw Features and Changes for This Issue," page lii.

80




AUGUST 1973

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

H

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

LE^ DING INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

Credit Difficulties

Flows of Money and C edit

85. Change in
U.S. money
supply (M1)

102. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at comm.
banks (M2)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Year
and
month

MONEY AND CREDIT

(Ann. rate,
percent)

103. Change in
money sup. plus
timedep.at
banks and nonbank inst. (M'l)
(Ann. rate,
percent)

33. Net change 112. Change
in business
in mortgage
debt held by fin loans
inst. and life
insurance1
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

*113.Net
change in consumer installment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

110. Total
private
borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures©

(Mil. dol.)

39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment
loans
(Percent)

Revised^

1971

+23.92
+23.38
+29.89

-3.97
+5.69
+1.70

+2.72
+6.24
+7.56

107,896

168.80
150.90
224.65

+15.22
+14.85
+11.70

+30.90
+34.64
+39.96

-8.26
+6.64
-0.18

+9.73
+6.80
+6.95

116,156

153.80
249.49
165.84

+8.41
+4.96
+4.68

+10.90
+8.06
+7.66

+44-58
+44-27
+40.45

-7.20
+16.03
+20.42

+8.30
+10.81
+13.22

143,260

147.03
155.56
115.85

+ 1 OC
1.

+9.56
+10.31

+36.79
+40.10
+45.40

-5.54
-0.95
-4.58

+10.50
+14.30
+10.68

117,480

+2.04

+9.32
+7.70
+8.93

144-70
129.00
111.32

+1.02
[fi>+14.73
+11.54

+10.38
+15.07
+12.40

+13.19
+16.80
+14.16

+37.37
+35.63
+44.39

-8.48
+6.52
+4-70

+13.21
+10.60
+15.77

122,372

101.62
191-33
220.66

+7.95
+3.95
+6.40

+7.85
+8.29
+9.20

+10.65
+10.09
+ 11
1 . 0

+44.68
r+50.83
r+51.82

+10.31
+4-72
-6.83

+11.88
+15.98
+16.63

142,480

148.47
190.14
127.90

January
February . ...
March

+2.71
+14.07
+9.63

+12.14
[H>+20.12
+18.41

April
May
June

+9.55
+13.68
+9.89

+12.45
+13-39
+10.07

July
August
September ....

+8.26
+2.56
+1.53

October
November
December

+4.09
-0.51

+14.22
[FD+20.16
+18.91 .

i!sl
1.72

i!si
l!75

1.94

[H)l!68

1972

January
February
March
April
May
June

+13-94
+11.63
+11.22

+49-79
+58.32
+49.38

+1.10
. +7.00
+12.02

+13.13
+19.72
+15.43

144,704

204.62
253.62
113.54

+10.08
+7.90
+12.24

+12.02
+9.81
+12.39

+47.57
+54-29
+6o
B>
-^3

+18.56
+16.78
+13.94

+17.95
+20.62
+19.96

[R>186,2U

152.97
208.58
0)86.79

-0.47
+6.11
-0.47

+6.40
+5.91
+4-75

+9.715
+8.93
+6.93

+42.89
+44.05
+53.86

+23.94
E) +50.92

+a.58

+23.39
+23.96
E>+24. 53

176,532

205.84
137.16
252.35

+7.48
•+10.69
r+12.U

+8.11
+9.85
+10.43

r+8.43
+9.08
+10.42

+48.90
r+55.80
p+59.69

+25.87
+14-54
+14.57

+16.85
r+23.89
+19.34

p!74,580

119.34
167.95
180.21

p+5.93
3
-3.02

p+5.50
a+4.46

P+5.72

July
August
September ....

+12.73
+4.36
+7.24

+12.50
+9.28
+8.73

October
November
December

+7.20
+5.25
+13.30

.

l!?3

1.79
l!87

l!92

2.03
1.92

1973

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

(HA)

(NA)

r+22.90
3
+30.76

(NA)

2.02

2.05

2. 61

206,19

October
November ....
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series th at appear to contain no seasonal nc vement. Unadjuste d series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by E); for
series that move counter to movements in general business act ivity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 4 4,45, and 93), cur rent low values are indicated by [H> . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at 1h(j back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 N8ER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", prt
jliminary; "e", estimated; "a", an ic pated;and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33, 34, and 40.
*Data include conventional mortgages helc1 by the Government Nat c>nal Mortgage Association.
*'See "New Features and Changes for This ]'. s sue , IT page ii i .
Average for weeks ended August 1, 8, ancI 15.

ItCII

AUGUST 1973




81

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Econonnic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

B MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
l

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

LAGGING INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
lnterest

Reaves

93. Free
reserves ©

Outstanding Debt

^

1 14. Treasury
bill rate®

116. Corporate
bond yields®

11 5. Treasury
band yields®

117. Municipal
bond yields®

66. Consumer
installment
debt

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Mil.dol.)

Year
and
month
(Mil.dol.)

*72. Commercia
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large
commercial
banks
(Mil.dol.)

Interest Rates

*67. Bank
rates on shortterm business
loans, 35
cities®

118. Mortgage
yields, residential ©

(Percent)

(Percent)

1971

January
February
March

-91
-127
-120

4.49
3.77
3.32

7.63
7.54
7.62

5.92
5.84
5.71

5.36
5.23
5.17

99,774
100,294
100,924

83,235
83,709
83,851

6.59

(NA)
(NA)
7.32

April
May
Juno

-8
-18
-322

3.78
4.14
4.70

7.76
Re. 25
8.15

5.75
5.96
5.94

5.37
5.90
5.95

101,735
102,302
102,881

83,163
83,716
83,701

el 01

7.37
7.75
7.89

July . .
August
September

-658
-606
-295

5.40
5.08
4.67

8.24
8.14
7.90

5.91
5.78
5.56

0)6.06
5.82
5.37

103,573
104,474
105,576

83,101
84,437
86,139

6i51

7.97
7.92
7.84

-153
-144
+58

4.49
4.19
4.02

7.72
7.67
7.54

5.46
5.48
5.62

5.06
5.20
5.21

106,451
107,643
108,533

85,677
85,598
85,216

e!l8

7.75
7.62
7.59

January
February
March

+153
+91
+134

3.40
3.18
3.72

7.36
7.57
7.53

5.62
5.67
5.66

5.12
5.28
5.31

109,634
110,517
111,831

84,509
85,052
85,444

5^52

7.49
7.46
7.45

April
May ..
June

+27
-15
+110

3.72
3.65
3.87

7.77
7.61
7.63

5.74
5.64
5-59

5.43
5.30
5.34

112,821
114,153
115,539

86,303
86,696
86,127

i.59

7.50
7.53
7.54

July
August
September

-55
-183
-352

4.06
4.01
4-65

7.72
7.59
7.72

5.59
5.59
5.70

5.41
5.30
5.36

116,633
118,276
119,562

86,218
86,801
87,803

5*34

7.54
7.55
7.56

October
November
December ....

-327
-2Q2
-830

4.72
4.77
5.06

7.66
7.46
7.50

5.69
5.51
5.63

5.18
5.02
5.05

121,058
122,776
124,439

89,350
90,748
91,910

6.33

7,57
7.57
7.56

-823
-1,388
-1,563

5.31
5.56
6.05

7.61
7.67
7.75

5.96
6.14
6.20

5.05
5.13
5.29

126,388
128,385
130,429

93,905
98,H8
101,613

6.52

7,55
7,, 56
7,63

-1,564
-1,638
Dr-1,653

6.29
6-35
7.19

7.70
7.6?
7.73

6.11
6.25
6.32

5.15
5.14
5.18

131,833
r!33,824
1)135,436

103,769
104,981
106,195

[H>7i35

7.73
7.79
7.89

p-1,605
-l,595

B>8.02
^8.67

7.97
8.45

i>6.53
3
6.95

5.40
*5.55

(NA)

S)pl08,103
X
110,666

October
November
December

v

1972

1973
January
February . .
March

April .
May
June

„
„

July
August
September .

l

3

IH>8.19

October
November
December
NOTE: Series ore seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by [H>; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current lowvalues are indicated by(H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect saries relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35, 36, and 42.
Average for wsaks ended August 1, 8, and*15. * Average for weeks ended August 2, 9, 16, and 23. 'Average for weeks ended
August 3, 10, and 17.
Average for weeks ended August 2, 9, and 16.

82




AUGUST 1973

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing

^9 COMPOSITE INDEXES
HO. Twelve
eaders, reverse trend adusted1 (series
1,5,6,10,12,
16,17,19,23,
29,31,113)

Year
and
month

(1967=100)

8 11. Twelve
eaders, prior
ustment
!same comDonents as
n series 8 10)

(1967=100)

820. Five
coinciders,
estimated
aggregate
economic
activity
(series 41, 43,
47, 52, 56)

830. Six
825. Five
coinciders, es- aggers

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

gate economic 61,62,67,
71,72)
activity,
deflated
(series 4 1,43,
47, 52D, 56D)
(1967=100)

Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1,2,
3,5)

(1967=100)

814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12,29)

815. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25,31,37)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

816. Profitability
(series 16,
17,19)

(1967=100)

817. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33, 85,
112,113)

(1967=100)

1971

January
February
March

118.7
120.1
122.6

101.4
102.2
103.9

120.6
121.3
121.9

112.9
113.4
113.8

125.9
124.2
124.2

93.1
93.7
94-1

108.9
108.6
110.0

102.9
102.3
102.7

95.6
98.1
99.0

100.4
104.5

April
May
June

124.3
125.5
125.5

105.0
105.6
105.2

122.6
123.6
125.2

114-3
114.8
116.5

123.7
123.4
124.2

94.2
94.1
94.2

109.7
111.5
112.1

103.3
102.6
101.4

100.5
101.1
100.6

106.1
105.4
107.4

July
August
September

127.0
127.9
128.5

106.1
106.4
106.6

124.0
124.1
125.2

113.7
113.7
115.9

124.5
125.9
125.9

93.7
93.2
92.6

113.0
114.2
112.8

102.0
102.6
101.3

100.7
100.5
101.7

109.1
110.0
108.6

October
November
December

129.7
131.4
132.7

107.1
108.2
108.8

125.5
126.6
127.6

115.3
116.5
117.3

125.8
125.8
125.9

93.3
95.1
95.2

114.7
116.2
116.0

100.7
100.8
102.3

101.3
100.6
101.9

104.6
105.0
104-8

January
February
March

134-6
135.0
138.3

109.9
109.9
112.2

129.4
130.7
132.2

118.9
119.7
121.1

125.8
125.7
126.1

97.1
97.8
98.5

116.3
115.5
117.0

103.1
104.0
105.1

103.0
103.4
104.6

106.3
108.1
116.5

April
May
June

139.6
141.9
142.3

112.8
114.2
114-1

133.7
134.8
135. .4

122.4
123.4
123.7

126.9
127.6
128.2

99.0
99.8
97.7

117.8
1 81
1 .
119.1

105.8
107.8
107.7

105.3
105.6
105.9

112.3
112.9
114.0

July
August
September

142.8
r!46.2
rl48.2

1 41
1 .
1-116.3
rl!7.5

135.9
138.2
r!39.7

124.2
126.2
rl27.3

128.8
z-129.7
rl31.3

99.1

rlOO.8
101.0

118.4
rll9.3
121.5

105.7
109.1
110.2

106.2
107.6
1-108.5

1 16
1.
120.0
1-116.5

October
November
December

r!49.8
r!52%3
154-5

rll8.3
rll9.8
121.2

1-142.2
r!44.3
x-145.7

z-129.8
rl31.7
rl32.3

1-133.3
rl35.6
r!37.4

r 102.0
rl01.6
100.8

1-122.0
121.5
r!22.5

110.4
1 12
1 .
112.7

1-109.4
rl. 6
il
1-113.9

118.9
123.6
1-124.2

1-156.8
rl59.8
rl62.4

1-122.5
I-124-4
r!25.9

1-147.7
rl49.6
rl51.0

rl33.9
rl35.1
r!35.5

1*139.7
rl42.7
145.4

1-102.6
1-103.0
D 1-103. 6

1-121.9
1-122.3
H>rl23.3

114.5
116.3
118.1

rl!5<l
1-115.7
rll7.9

126.1
127.9
H>133.2

1-160.9
rl64.0
165.6

rl24.3
1-126.2
127.0

rl52.0
r!53-3
154-4

135.7
rl36.2
136.6

r!48.9
rl51.4
1-153.8

r!03. 5
1-103.4
P102.5

1-121.6
121.7
1-123.0

118.1
1-120.6
D 1-124.0

1-117.7
[R)rll8.8
1-118.4

123.0
rl27.7
P125.5

D2167.5

E>S128.0

D3155.6

E>3137.5

(B>pl55.9

98.6

1972

1973

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

...

(NA)

p!21.6

p!23.2

pllS.4

(NA)

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by H); for
series.that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |R). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
2
Excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available.
3
Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.


AUGUST 1973


83

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

AGGREGATE SERIES

Year
and
quarter

410. Manufacturers'sales,
total value

61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Percent)

414. Condition
of manufacturers'
inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low

(Bil.dol.)

(Percent)

c. First
anticipations as
percent of actual

(Percent)

a. Actual
expenditures

412. Manufacturers' inventories,
total book value

(Bil.dol.)

416. Adequacy
of mfrs.' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(Percent)

435.Index of
consumer
sentiment ®

(First quarter
1966=100)

1970

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

78.22
80.22
81.88
78.63

102.3
100.5
99.0
103.9

103.6
103.4
101.7
104.6

r!59.7
158.8
160.3
155-9

98.5
99.6
100.7
101.6

23
23
21
20

38
36
33
33

78.1
75.4
77.1
75.4

79.32
81.61
80.75
83.18

101.6
100.9
102.0
101.0

102.6
101.1
102.6
99.1

163.0
167.3
rl68.6
r!72.4

101.8
102.0
102.1
102.4

19
20
18
16

26
21
20
19

78.2
81.6
82.4
82.2

86.79
87.12
87.67
91-94

100.9
10^.1
103.1
100.5

100.4
102.3
102.3
99.9

178.1
183.5
189.2
r!99.5

103.0
104.3
106.2
107.7

12
10
1
1
10

24
26
31
35

87.5
89.3
94.0
90.8

96.19
a98.57
alOl.80

100.6
(NA)

100.5
(NA)

r207.4
e213.4
a212.7

110.2
e!13.0
al!3.6

9
(NA)

41
(NA)

1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

80.8
76.0

AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.

Year
and
quarter

420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reportinga. No change
in income

(Percent)

b. Higher
income

(Percent)

®

c. Lower
income

(Percent)

425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households ©
a. Increase
in income

(Percent)

b. Increase
less decrease

(Percent)

c. Decrease
in income

(Percent)

430. Household purchases of new cars
a. Actual
(quarterly)

2-quarter moving average
b. Actual

c. Anticipated

d. Anticipated
as percent of
actual
(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)

(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)

(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)

7.4
8.3
8.1

69
.
78
.
8.2
84
.

7.7
8.0
7.6
7.6

112
103
93
90

8.4
8.0
8.6
8.6

93
98
102

9.2
(NA)

105
(NA)

1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

50.3
4.
98
48.5
50.8

35.0
35.1
37.6
34.9

14.1
14-5
12.5
13.6

20.1
19.9
18.2
16.7

13.8
12.9
10.9
9.4

6.3
70
.
7.3
7.3

51.4
51.0
53.6
46.3

35.2
35.7
34.3
40.8

12.7
12.5
10.9
12.0

17.2
19.9
17.0
15.7

10.5
12.4
10.2
9.0

6.7
7.5
6.8
6.7

45.9
4.
68

4.
16
4.
08

1.
18
11.7

15.9
16.1
19.9
20.1

9.7
9.4
13.5
14.0

6.2
6.7
6.4
6.1

17.1
16.6

10.7
10.3

64
.
6.3

1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

9.5
(NA)

(NA)

1974

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 43,44, and 45.




84

AUGUST 1973

BCII

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Year
and
quarter

D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade 1 ©

D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade 1 ®

D440. New orders,
manufacturing 1 ©

D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries

D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade 1 ®
Anticipated

a. Actual
expenditures

b. Second
anticipations

c. First
anticipations

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

(1-Qspan)

(1-Qspan)

(1-Qspan)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

77.8
47.2
58.3
1.
94

69.4
61.1
25.0
44-4

38.9
55.6
66.7
50.0

66
64
60
55

76
71
74
74

61
56
55
56

70
66
70
66

70
66
64
62

74
73
78
76

54
54
51
50

58
56
56
54

50.0
61.1
44-4
75.0

33.3
58.3
47.2
72.2

41.7
58.3
63.9
50.0

68
70
70
74

76
78
85
81

63
64
66
70

71
74
80
78

70
72
74
76

78
80
86
84

48
52
53
55

55
58
58
56

44.4
50.0
55.6
83.3

77.8
63.9
88.9
75.0

75.0
44.4
47.2
50.0

82
84
86
84

82

74
76
79
80

76
82
84
83

82
82
85
86

83
88
90

56
58
62
60

58
60
61
60

83.3
(NA)

77.8
77.8

86.1
63.9
61.1

90

90
88
87

78
79

82
85
84
80

63
62

60
63
62
60

(4-Q span)

1970

First quarter . . ,
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

90
90

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Selling prices

D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade 1 ®

Year

and

quarter

Actual

D460. Manufacturing
and trade 1 ®

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Actual

D462. Manufacturing 1 ®

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

D464. Wholesale trade 1 ®
Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

D466. Retail trade 1 ®
Anticipated

Actual
(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1970

80
80
81
80

66
61
62
58

62
61
64
58

84
82
82
80

78
78
78
77

80
80
78
75

79
76
78
75

87
85
86
84

77
80
82
80

62
62
62
60

60
62
65
65

80
80
71
72

78
78
78
78

74
76
68
70

76
76
75
75

85
86
73
74

80
82
82
82

84
73
74

80

64
66
72
71

61
66
66
66

74
76
76
78

74
75
72

70
72
72
74

68
72
72
70

81
82
80

70
78
80
74

73
78
79
81

67
74
74
74

73
76

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

69
72
72
70

82
84

73
80
83
82

90
87

76
85
88
83

85

1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

86

76
82
85
83

84

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
^his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.

BCII AUGUST




1973

85

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Iffl FOREIGN TRADE

Year
and
month

500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 51 2)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles
and parts

508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery

(Mil.dol.)

502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

(1957-59=100)

512. General imports, total

(Mil.dol.)

1971

1,518
1,472
1,469

236
225
234

3,599
3,564
3,629

3,746
3,672

1,394
1,242
1,503

244
237
246

3,774
3,908
4,037

1,298
1,450
1,578

239
256
244

3,832

+308

3,573
3,666
4,487

-800
-260
-288

2,669

3,196
3,881

1,475
1,281
1,766

248
262
284

3,469
3,456

4,074
3,824
3,868

1,427
1,372
1,554

290
296
317

4,416

3,820
3,882

1,337
1,340

-497

3,971

2,085

339
327
343

4,417

-604.

-/Ql

4,074
7 1 Q6
4 176

1,706
2 036
1,947

368
416
378

4,565
4,726

/ 316
i 1 7-2

iii

1 833
1 702

1

C.C&

p pen

405
389
362

4,736

fjrjf-

4,977
5,065

2,304
2,248

383
408

*> 380

P ?O7

/!*>

5,487
5,603
5,778

2,258

p2,052

5,868

(NA)

+2

3,601

January
February
March

+130
+160

3,694
3,790

April
May
June

-143
-161
-365

July
August
September

-259

October
November
December

-24.7

3,631

3,913
4,179

4,169

1972

January
February
March

. ...

-341
-6^9

-64.7

April
May
June

-596
. . .

July
August
September
October ... .
November
December

rqn
/1A

/ pn

-b/5

4,473

4,515

4,486
4,468

4,612
5.148
5,002

1973

January
February
March

-304
-476
_C-2

April

+196

May

-158

June
July
August
September

-16
+106

2,111

435
r447
P419
(NA)

5,281

S *»4"i
5,432
C

PQ1

/bl
5 ,»7/:-|

5170

/

, /V4

5 762

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.

86




AUGUST 1973

BCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

Year
and
quarter

250. Balance
on goods and
services

515. Balance
on goods, services,
and remittances

(Mil. dol.)

517. Balance
on current
account

519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners 1 ®

522. Official
reserve transactions balance

521. Net

liquidity balance

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1970

907
971
1,047
704

555
591
666
336

138
189
222
-135

-1,210
-601
-356

-1,291
-856
-802
-906

-2,801
-1,992
-1,886
-3,164

42,970
43,375
44,201
43,291

954
131
280
-560

589
-243
-129
-965

151
-728
-678
-1,538

-1,386
-2,994
-3,294
-1,881

-2,672
-5,698
-9,448
-4,151

-5,630
-6,345
-11,882
-5,900

45,484
51,408
60,761
64,166

-1,374
-1,426
-939
-870

-1,765
-1,801
-1,312
-1,299

-2,343
-2,364
-1,893
-1,751

-3,775
-1,855
-2,652
-1,556

-3,188
-2,307
-4,531
-3,851

-3,476
-851
-4,524
-1,484

66,925
69,880
75,498
78,719

Pi
(NA)

First quarter . . ,
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

P-399
(NA)

p-750
(NA)

P-1,214
(NA)

rp-6,709
p-1,496

P-10,539
P+463

p85,493

1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

(NA)

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Year
and
quarter

532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1 ®
(Mil. dol.)

534. U.S.

official
reserve
assets2 ®

(Mil. dol.)

535. Allocations to the
U.S. of
Special
Drawing
Rights
(Mil. dol.)

Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Goods and services

Merchandise, adjusted 3

Income on investment, military
transactions, other serv., total

252. Exports

253. Imports

536. Exports

537. Imports

540. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

Ml. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

541.

Imports

(Mil. dol.)

1970

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

19,404
20,451
22,262
24,396

17,350
16,328
15,527
14,487

217
217
217
216

15,376
15,768
15,975
15,803

14,469
14,797
14,928
15,099

10,239
10,564
10,704
10,457

9,727
9,831
9,961
10,269

5,137
5,204
5,271
5,346

4,742
4,966
4,967
4,830

28,960
34,584
45,915
51,209

14,342
13,504
12,131
12,167

180
179
179
179

16,487
16,781
17,282
15,739

15,533
16,650
17,002
16,299

10,872
10,791
11,522
9,583

10,743
11,708
11,907
11,108

5,615
5,990
5,760
6,156

4,790
4,942
5,095
5,191

53,806
54,604
60,075
61,512

12,270
13,339
13,217
13,151

178
178
177
177

17,587
17,463
18,491
19,921

18,961
18,889
19,430
20,791

11,655
11,539
12,362
13,213

13,475
13,313
13,935
14,958

5,932
5,924
6,129
6,708

5,486
5,576
5,495
5,833

p71,289
(NA)

12,931
(NA)

p22,435
(NA)

p22,434
(NA)

15,320
Pl6,693

16,280
pl6,987

P7,115
(NA)

p6,154
(NA)

1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49, 50, and 51.
3
Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
^Reserve position at end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).

ItCII

AUGUST 1973



87

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

E3 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Year
and
quarter

Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Income on investments
542. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil.dol.)

Travel

543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)

544. Receipts
from foreign travelers in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)

Transportation and other services

Military transactions

545. Payments
by U.S. travelers
abroad
(Mil.dol.)

546. Sales under
military contracts
(Mil.dol.)

547. Military
expenditures
abroad®
(Mil.dol.)

548. Receipts
from
(Mil.dol.)

549. Payments
for
(Mil.dol.)

1970

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

2,936
2,779
2,863
2,850

1,344
1,322
1,28^
1,217

570
575
591
594

935
1,001
1,021
1,012

268
435
347
429

1,180
1,259
1,210
1,203

1,363
1,415
1,470
1,473

1,283
1,384
1,452
1,398

2,989
3,315
3,038
3,557

1,160
1,135
1,293
1,340

594
590
623
657

1,048
1,061
1,056
1,113

498
507
489
419

1,175
1,214
1,204
1,237

1,534
1,578
1,610
1,523

1,407
1,532
1,542
1,501

3,3H
3,270
3,476
3,866

1,423
1,479
1,526
1,634

652
672
680
702

1,166
1,214
1,181
1,295

328
288
262
287

1,222
1,242
1,108
1,151

1,638
1,694
1,711
1,853

1,675
1,641
1,680
1,753

P4,105
(NA)

pl,858
(NA)

P733
(NA)

pi,167
(NA)

pl,934
(NA)

pi,868
(NA)

1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

pi,261
(NA)

P343
(NA)

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers

Year
and
quarter

Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)

Securities investments

561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil.dol.)

564. Foreign purchases
of U.S. securities
(Mil.dol.)

565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
(Mil.dol.)

570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net

(Mil.dol.)

575. Banking and other
capital transactions, net

(Mil.dol.)

1970

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

491
104
245
190

1,279
1,233
886
1,014

304
374
720
792

210
-93
488
337

-1,199
-335
-951
-1,196

-354
-20
9
29

124
1
-425
184

1,255
1,343
1,450
895

559
196
606
908

356
377
305
-71

-1,212
-1,210
-1,294

-1,016
-744
-1,891
-990

-361
183
178
160

1,302
183
1,148
711

1,058
956
553
1,768

437
346
-209
40

-729
-802
-990
-1,371

-1,167
40
4
-991
-1,332

P247
(NA)

P2,139
(NA)

pi,738
(NA)

P-47
(NA)

P-9H
(NA)

P-1,973
(NA)

1971

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.




AUGUST 1973

BCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

R FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
|

Defense Indicators

Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month

600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

264. National
602. Federal
defense purexpenditures,
national income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance

621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

647. New or-

648. New or-

ders, defense
products industries

ders, defense
products

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil.dol.)

1971

January
February
March

-17 ! 6

mis

212 '.4

72.3

6,706
6,767
6,763

2,038
2,010
1,528

3.85
3.25
3,28

1.71
1.79
1.51

2,508
2,619
3,398

April
May
June

-23.5

197! 7

221.2

71.3

6,S96
6,607
6,036

1,686
1,457
1,340

3.50
3.23
3.63

1.53
1.36
1.40

2,751
2,112
2,367

July
August
September

-23 '.2

199 U

222.6

70.3

7,734
6,819
5,S22

2,577
1,672
1,127

4.25
3.63
3.02

1.90
1.76
1.59

3,082
3,078
2,769

-24.'. 5

203^5

22S!6

72^4

7,183
6,749
7,380

2,001
1,700
2,096

3.25
3.95
3.69

1.75
1.81
1.58

2,392
3,209
3,016

January
February
March

-13 Is

222! 9

236! 6

76*. 5

7,485
7,725
7,156

2,634
1,994
1,817

3.79
3.45
3.48

2.34
1.43
1.58

3,531
2,971
3,233

April
May
June

-19! 6

225.4

244.4

76! 6

7,048
6,853
6,812

1,518
1,247
1,585

3.50
(NA)

1.76
1.49
2.82

2,866
2,848
3,126

1.12

....

October
November
December
1972

....

July
August
September

....

-7.4-

229.6

237.0

7l! 9

7,336
8,014
6,424

2,213
2,184
1,068

1.63
1.80

3,093
2,673
2,704

October
November
December

....

-23.4

236.9

260.3

72.4

6,991
7,281
6,211

1,610
1,680
1,240

1.44
1.42
1.82

2,840
3,682
2,459

-5 16

253^6

258*. 6

74*. 3

7,004
7,705
7,418

1,766
2,042
1,787

1.76
1.72
1.89

2,824
2,879
3,185

P+O.I

p262.5

r262.4

r74.2

6,625
7,079

1,316
1,720

1.95
1.85

(NA)

(NA)

r2.18

2,469
3,237
2,861

pl.05

(NA)

1973

January
February
March
April
May
June

....

July
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.

KCII

 AUGUST 1973


89

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Qj PRICE MOVEMENTS

Year
and
month

Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product
211. Index

Consumer price indexes

21 1c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
781. lndex@

(1958=100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

782. Food

All items

(1967=100)

781c. Change
over 1 -month
spans1
(Percent)

781c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

783. Commodities less
food

784. Services®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

1971

5.4

119.2
119.4
119.8

0.2
0.2
0.3

3.6
3.9
3.8

115.7
116.1
117.1

115.5
115.5
115.7

126.3
126.6
126.6

5.1

120.2
120.8
121.5

0.3
0.5
0.4

3.8
4.2
3.9

117.7
118.2
118.8

115.9
116.5
116.9

126.8
127.5
128.2

3.7

121.8
122.1
122.2

0.2
0.4
0.1

3.7
3.1
2.9

119.0
119.3
119.0

117.1
117.5
117.4

128.8
129.3
129.8

1.5

122.4
122.6
123.1

0.2
0.2
0.3

2.9
3.1
3.1

119.3
119.8
120.5

117.5
117.6
117.7

129.9
130.3
130.7

4.1

123.2
123.8
124.0

0.2
0.5
0.1

3.1
3.3
2.9

120.5
122.4
122.4

118.1
118.2
118.6

131.5
131.8
132.1

2.5

January
February
March

124.3
124.7
125.0

0.2
0.3
0.1

3.2
2.8
3.4

122.3
122.3
122.5

118.6
119.1
119.2

132.4
132.7
133.1

3.1

125.5
125.7
126.2

0.4
0.3
0.4

3.8
3.7
3.9

123.3
123.9
124.8

119.5
119.9
120.3

133.5
133.8
134.1

4-1

126.6
126.9
127.3

0.3
0.3
0.2

4.1
5.0
5.9

125.5
126.4
126.3

120.3
120.5
120.7

134.6
134.9
135.4

7.0

127.7
128.6
129.8

0.5
0.7
0.9

6.6
7.2
8.0

128.9
131.4
134.5

120.9
121.3
121.9

135.7
136.2
136.6

130.7
131.5
132.4

0.6
0.6
0.6

7.4

136.4
137.9
139.2

122.4
122.9
123.5

137.0
137.5
138.1

132.7

0.2

139.9

123.6

138.4

134.6

April

136 !J

May
June
July
August
September

137.6

October
November
December

138 !
l

1972

January
February
March

139 '.5

April

May

14o!Z

June
July
August
September

141.4

October
November
December

142.9

1973

January
February
March

145^3

April

May
June
July
August
September

r7.9

rl48.1

October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month,, 1-quarter changes are placed
on 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

90




AUGUST 1973

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Qj PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month

750. All
commodities®

58. Manufactured
goods®

751. Processed
foods and feeds

752. Farm
products

Industrial commodities
55. Index®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

55c. Change
over 1 -month
spans 1

55c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

1971
January
PBbruary
March

111.8
112.8
113.0

111.8
112.4
112.7

111.7
112.7
113.6

109.1
112.3
111.7

112.2
112.5
112.8

0.3
0.1
0.3

3.2
3.7
3.6

April
May
June

113.3
113.8
114-3

113.0
113.5
113.8

113.8
114-5
114.4

113.0
112.6
114.2

113.3
113.7
113.9

0.4
0.5
0.3

4-4
5.2
4.6

July
August
September

114.6
114.9
114.5

114.5
114.9
114.7

114.5
114.9
114.6

111.3
113.9
112.0

114.5
115.1
115.0

0.6
0.5
0.0

3.6
2.8
2.8

October
November
December
1972
January
February
March

114-4
114.5
115.4

114.5
114-5
115.1

115.0
115.6
116.8

114-2
114-8
116.3

115.0
114.9
115.3

-0.1
0.1
0.3

2.2
2.0
2.6

116.3
117.3
117.4

115.7
116.5
116.7

117.1
1 81
1.
118.4

117.9
118.8
118.3

115.9
116.5
116.8

0.3
0.4
0.3

3.4
4.0
4.2

April
May
June

117.5
118.2
118.8

116.9
117.4
117.8

118.1
118.5
119.1

119.2
120.9
121.8

117.3
117.6
117.9

0.4
0.3
0.4

4.0
3.9
3.9

July
August
September

119.7
119.9
120.2

118.3
118.5
118.8

119.9
120.5
121.9

125.5
128.7
130.7

118.1
118.5
118.7

0.2
0.3
0.3

3.2
3.3
2.9

October
November
December
1973
January
February
March

120.0
120.7
122.9

118.8
119.2
120.7

122.8
124.5
130.4

128.6
132.4
137.8

118.8
119.1
119.4

0.1
0.4
0.2

3.1
4.3
6.3

124.5
126.9
129.7

121.6
123.6
125.7

133.3
136.2
141.1

144-.3
148.5
159.0

120.0
121.3
122.7

0.3
1.0
1.2

9.0
10.7
12.5

April
May
June

130.7
133.5
136.7

140.2
144.9
151.2

134.9

160.8
168.5
179.1
169.9

124.4
125.8
126.9
126.9

1.3
1.2
1.0
0.1

12.0

July
August
September

126.7
128.7
130.9
129.8

144.6

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes
are placed on the 4th month.
1

ItCII AUGUST

1973




91

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
|
859. Real
spendable
avg. wkly.
earnings
nonagri. prod.

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj. 1
Year
and
month

Current dollar earnings
740. Index

(1967=100)

740c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

Real earnings

740c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

741. Index

(1967=100)

741c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

741c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy

workers

745. Index

(1967 dol.)

Current dollar compensation

(1967=100)

745c. Change 745c. Change
over 1-quarter over4-quarter
spans2
spans2
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
percent)
percent)

1971

126.0
126.7
127.2

1.0
0.6
0.4

7.4
7.8
7.6

105.5
106.0
106.2

0.7
0.5
0.2

3.6
3.7
3.7

91.49
91.82
92.08

r!28.*3

April
May
June

128.0
128.9
129.5

0.6
0.7
0.5

6.6
6.8
6.6

106.5
106.7
106.7

0.3
0.2
0.0

2.7
2.5
2.6

92.30
92.56
92.40

r!30.*8

July
August
September

130.1
130.9
131.4

0.5
0.6
0.4

5.9
4-5
6.3

106.9
107.3
107.5

0.2
0.4
0.2

2.1
1.4
3.3

92.44
92.58
92.72

r!32.9

October
November
December

131.7
131.8
133.5

0.2
0.1
1.3

6.9
6.0
6.5

107.6
107.5
108.5

0.1
-0.1

3.9
2.8
3.3

93.02
93.06
93.70

r!34.5

134.5
134-8
135.6

0.7
0.2
0.6

7.6
7.6
5.6

109.0
108.8
109.3

-0.2

4.3
4.1
2.7

95-09
95.32
95.71

r!37.6

136.6
136.7
137.2

0.7
0.1
0.4

5.3
5-5
5.6

109.9
109.7
109.9

-0.2

0.2

2.0
2.6
2.0

96.70
95.95
96.07

r!39.4

July
August
September

13S.O
138.5
139.3

0.6
0.4
0.6

5.7
5.9
6.9

110.1
110.2
110.4

0.2
0.1
0.2

1.8
2.1
2.9

96.39
96.36
96.89

rUl.'e

October
November
December

140.4
140.7
141.9

0.8
0.2
0.9

6.4
5.9
5.8

110.9
110.8
111.5

0.5
-0.1

2.2
0.9

rl43.3

0.6

-0.1

97.49
96.98
96.78

142.3
142.5
143.3

0.3
0.1
0.6

5.8

-0.2
-0.5
-0.3

95.81
96.08
95.67

r!47,'5

r.5.6

111.3
110.7
110.4

0.8

P5.8

-0.1
-0.4

95.96
95.61
95.51

r!49.6

January
February
March

. .

0.9

7.6
r6.8

r7.9

6.7

r6.8
r7.3

r4.7
r6.6

1972

January
February
March
April
May
June

. . . .

0.5
0.5
0.5

r9.8
r6.5

r5.2
r6.9

r6.4
r7.2

r6.5
r7.3

1973

January
February
March

r5.8

April
May
June

144.4
rl44.7
r!45.8

rO.2
rO.8

110.5
110.1
110.2

July
August
September

pl46.4

pO.4

pllO.5

0.1
pO.3

-0.7

r-1.3
r-2.2
p-1.5

rlO.8

r5.8

P96.17

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
^Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle
month of the 3d auarter.

92




AUGUST 1973

BCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

U WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
|

Year
and
month

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.

748. First
year average
changes

Real compensation
746. Index

(1967=100)

746c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per man-hour, total
private economy

Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries®
749. Average
changes over
life of
contract

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

770. Index

(1967=100)

770c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1

770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm

(1967=100)

1971

January
February
March

r!07.4

April
May
June

r!08.2

July
August
September

r!08.9

10.6

r4.2

October
November
December

.

rl09.6

15.0

3^6

108 !
l

Z!i

109il

3*-7

109.8

4.2

1 1 '.3
1

4-7

3.2

10.6

110.1

r3.*3

lO1?! 6

112 [9

4.7

8.7

109.3
12.7

r2.4

4.*6

108 .'6

3^6

106 !
l

2.0

8.2

3li
r2.6

3.4

107.5

11.5

r3.3

8.6

8.5

r2.*4

1972

January
February
March

rllO.2

April
May
June

rl. 8
il

July
August
September

rll2.5

9.7

6.1

110.7

8.1

2.0

12 5
1!

•8.7

133
1!

7.3

r2.8

5.2

6.6

114.8

l'.8

rll3.3

3.1

7.3

r3.0

.. .

October . . .
November
December

6.5

7.3

r3.4

r2.7

2.1

8.2

r3.3

r2*.9

114.2

1973

January
February
March
April
May
June

1-4.7

P7.3

4.1

P 5.5

rl!4.6

115.6

115.9
r-2.8

p7.6

r-0.7

P6.6

rl!5*.8

rl!5*.4

1-113.8

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.

IICII

 AUGUST 1973


93

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Qj CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS1
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

841. Total

(Thous.)

842. Employed

(Thous.)

Unemployment rates
843. Unemployed

844. Males
20 years and
over

(Thous.)

(Percent)

845. Females
20 years and
over

(Percent)

846. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

848. Negro
and other races

847. White

(Percent)

(Percent)

1971

9.7
9.7
9.5

January
February
March

83,693
83,341
83,413

78,679
78,441
78,417

5,014
4,900
4,996

4-4
4.3
4-3

5.7
5.7
5.9

17.3
16.6
17.1

5.5
5.4
5.5

April
May
June

83,712
83,964
83,498

78,736
78,906
78,653

4,976
5,058
4,845

4.3
4-4
4.3

5.9
5.8
5.7

16.6
17.4
16.5

5.5
5.5
5.4

July
August
September

84,039
84,371
84,503

79,095
79,264
79,476

4,944
5,107
5,027

4.3
4-5
4.4

5.6
5.8
5.7

17.1
16.9
16.7

5.3
5.6
5.4

10.0

October
November
December

84,696
85,078
85,145

79,738
79,987
80,040

4,958
5,091
5,105

4.3
4-4
4-4

5.6
5.7
5.7

16.9
16.9
17.1

5.3
5.5
5.4

10.2

January
February
March

85,644
85,518
86,264

80,579
80,594
81,216

5,065
4,924
5,048

4.2
4.1
4.2

5.6
5.1
5.5

17.5
18.5
17.4

5.3
5.2
5.3

10.9
10.6
10.4

April
May
June

86,184
86,431
86,554

81,209
81,458
81,752

4,975
4,973
4,802

4.2
4.1
4.0

5.4
5.7
5.6

16.7
15.7
14.9

5.3
5.2
5.1

10.3

July
August
September

86,597
86,941
87,066

81,782
82,061
82,256

4,815
4,880
4,810

3.9
3.9
3.8

5.7
5.5
5.4

15.5
16.7
16.2

5.0
5.1
5.0

10.0

October
November
December

87,236
87,023
87,267

82,397
82,525
82,780

4,839
4,498
4,487

3.9
3.5
3.4

5.5
5.0
5.1

15.4
15.6
15.7

5.0
4.6
4.6

10.0
10.1

January
February
March

86,921
87, 569
88,268

82,555
83,127
83,889

4,366
4,442
4,379

3.3
3.4
3.4

5.3
4.9
4.9

14.3
15.8
14.2

4.6
4.6
4-4

8.9
9.0
9.0

April
May
June

88,350
88,405
88,932

83,917
84,024
84,674

4,433
4,381
4,258

3.4
3.4
3.2

4.7
4.6
4.9

15.4
15.4
13.3

4.5
4.4
4.3

9.1
9.4
8.5

July
August
September

88,810

84,614

4,196

3.0

4.9

14.4

4.1

9.3

9.6
10.1

9.3

9.9
10.2

9.6
10.5

1972

9.3
9.2

9.7
10.0

9.6

1973

October
November
December

. .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.
1
Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to January 1972, the
I960 Census is used as the benchmark.

94




AUGUST 1973

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

HQj ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP

Year
and
quarter

207. Gap (potential less actual)

Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level

205. Actual value

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

1970

First Quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

721.2
722.1
727.2
719.3

746.4
754-3
762.3
770.4

+25.2
+32.2
+35.1
+51.1

735.1
740.4
746.9
759.0

778.5
786.7
795.1
803.5

+43.4
+46.3
+48.2
+44.5

768.0
785.6
796.7
812.3

812.0
820.6
829.3
838.0

+44.0
+35.0
+32.6
+25.7

829.3
r834-3

847.0
856.0

+17.7
r+21.7

1971

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.

Special Note on Potential GNP
The following note has been provided by the Council of Economic
Advisers regarding potential GNP.
The idea of potential GNP has had a long history. Its measurement by the
Council of Economic Advisers was started in the Economic Report of the
Council in 1962. Since that time it has been used as a standard with which to
evaluate the past and future behavior of the economy.
Potential GNP purports to measure what the economy would produce if
all of its resources were fully utilized given the technology and institutional
arrangements that have existed at the time. "Fully utilized" has never meant
the kind of utilization that would prevail, say, under wartime conditions but
rather the utilization that could be expected under conditions of reasonable
price stability. This has always been less than complete utilization. Under
ordinary circumstances some unemployment is present because some
workers are in the process of changing jobs; similarly, some old plants are
idle because market conditions do not permit them to operate profitably. In
the past this degree of utilization has been reflected in an overall
unemployment rate of 4 percent. The rate of inflation associated with that
degree of unemployment has typically not been specified. Futhermore,
notions of what constitutes reasonable price stability can vary over time.
Potential GNP is not something ordinarily observable. In practice, the
Council in 1962 made the judgment that the economy was operating at 100


AUGUST 1973


110

percent of potential in mid-1955. Since that time potential GNP has been
estimated to grow at differing annual rates, as follows: 3.5 percent from the
first quarter of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 1962, 3.75 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1962 to the fourth quarter of 1965, 4 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1969, and 4.3 percent from
the fourth quarter of 1969 to the second quarter of 1973. These rates of
growth in potential GNP have reflected the differing rates of growth in the
potential labor force, in potential annual hours of work and in output per
manhour at potential. Specifically, since the fourth quarter of 1969 this has
reflected a 1.8 percent rise in the labor force, a 0.2 percent decline in annual
hours of work and a 2.7 percent rise in output per manhour per year.

Although potential is presented in the chart on page 61 and the table
above as a point estimate each quarter, it is clearly subject to a margin of
error and consequently, as with any measure of capacity, should be used
with considerable caution. There are uncertainties regarding both the growth
and the level of potential. Even though it is estimated that potential grew at
an annual rate of 4.3 percent in recent years, the growth of the actual labor
force, annual hours and output per manhour have differed considerably from
those specifically assumed for potential growth. And clearly there is
uncertainty about how fast the economy's potential will grow in the future.
Possibly more important is the uncertainty regarding the level of potential
and thus the size of the gap between actual and potential.

95

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

g ANALYTICAL RATIOS
|

851. Ratio,
inventories to sales,
manufacturing
and trade

(Percent)

Year
and
month

850. Ratio,
output to capacity,
manufacturing

(Ratio)

852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to
shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
industries

(Ratio)

853. Ratio,
production of
business equipment
to consumer goods

(1967=100)

854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income

(Ratio)

357. Vacancy rate
'n total rental
lousing @

860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed1

(Ratio)

(Percent)

t1)

1971

75.0

1.64
1.63
1.61

2.91
2.88
2.80

84.2
85.3
84.1

0.081

0.463
0.474
0.471

5.3

75^6

1.61
1.60
1.59

2.79
2.69
2.59

83.3
82.4
82.3

0.085

0.473
0.471
0.516

5*3

July
August
September

74.7

1.61
1.59
1.60

2.63
2.72
2.69

83.5
84.1
84.1

0.080

0.512
0.496
0.485

5^6

October
November
December

74.6

1.60
1.57
1.58

2.66
2.63
2.59

84.2
83.0
83.1

0.076

0.498
0.491
0.496

5*.6

r75.6

1.56
1.56
1.54

2.57
2.58
2.55

83.0
83.5
84.7

0.068

0.523
0.538
0.542

5*3

r77.9

1.53
1.52
1.53

2.52
2.52
2.62

r83.9
r84.8
r85.3

0.058

0.569
0.575
0.601

5*. 5

July
August
September

r79'-4

1.53
1.49
1.49

2.61
2.56
2.60

r85.6
r86.2
r87.5

0.057

0.637
0.653
0.637

5^8

October
November .
December

r8l.5

1.47
1.46

r87.9
r89.0
r89.6

0.066

0.671
0.721
0.776

5*6

1.45

2.55
2.53
2.59

1.43
1.43
1.41

2.57
2.58
2.66

r90.1
r90.8
r90.7

0.059

0.832
0.798
0.823

5.7

1.42

rl.42
pl-44

2.70
2.75
2.85

r91.4
r92.3
r93.3

rO.059

r 0.813
r 0.822
rpo.867

5*.8

(NA)

(NA)

P93.1

January
February
March
April

May
June

1972

January
February
March
April

May
June

1973

January
February
March

rp82.8

April
May
June

rp83.3

....
....

July
August
September

eO.930

October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
1
Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for computing the unemployment component of this series.
Prior to January 1972, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

96




AUGUST 1973

BCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

R DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
|

Year
and
month

D1. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing
(21 industries)

D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)

D11. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
The Conference Board
(17 industries)1

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1971

1-quarter
span

3-quarter
span

Revised05

1-month
span

D34. Profits,
D19. Index of stock
mfg., FNCB
prices, 500 common stocks
about 1,000
(72 industries) 2 @
orporations)

D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

Revised3

1-quarter
span

January
February
March

71.4
31.0
73.8

76.2
83.3
83.3

44.3
61.4
51.4

60.0
62.9
74.3

59

24

58

95.8
87.5
71.5

98.6
95.1
91.0

46.2
61.5
80.8

46.2
46.2
46.2

April
May
June

40.5
76.2
47.6

78.6
59.5
64.3

57.1
55.7
65.7

65.7
54-3
65.7

41

59

59

84.0
41.7
27.8

97.2
77.8
56.9

80.8
38.5
46.2

61.5
69.2
69.2

July
August
September

61.9
26.2
21.4

71.4
83.3
73.8

51.4
57.1
41.4

71.4
71.4
80.0

65

59

59

44.4
23.6
71.5

31.9
43.1

U.4

57.7
61.5
53.8

53.8
53.8
46.2

October
November
December

78.6
83.3
71.4

81.0
88.1
92.9

60.0
64-3
58.6

77.1
85.7
91.4

47

88

51

18.1
95.8

50.7
59.7
65.3

46.2
34.6
61.5

53.8
80.8
84.6

January
February
March

28.6
88.1
40.5

85.7
85.7
90.5

58.6
54.3
62.9

82.9
94.3
82.9

76

82

62

89.6
70.1
76.4

62.5
59.0
68.1

65.4
73.1
76.9

76.9
76.9
84.6

April
May
June

rtrt

~\
OO.-L

77.1
51.4
54.3

85.7
88.6

76

82

64

81.0

83.3
88.1
88.1

71.5
21.5
43.1

84.7
67.6
43.7

65.4
76.9
73.1

92.3
84.6
84.6

July
August
September

26.2
85.7
69.0

69.0
59.5
19.0

50.0
80.0
61.4

94.3
91.4
82.9

50

82

57

30.6
76.4
33.8

54.9
54.9
47.9

61.5
65.4
50.0

76.9
61.5
69.2

October
November
December

50.0
52.4
28.6

73.8
69.0
73.8

57.1
62.9
51.4

91.4
91.4
97.1

65

100

59

33.8
90.1
77.5

42.0
36.2
34.8

61.5
65.4
69.2

76.9
84.6
88.5

19.0
95.2
50.0

r57.1
r31.0
P45.2

67.1
61.4
74.3

90.0

76

P94

64

r85.7
p88.6

26.8
14-5
19.6

26.5
19.1
25.0

84.6
84.6
76.9

92.3
92.3
92.3

r64

21.7
14-7
15.4

2.8

1972

4.8

91.4

...

1973

January
February
March
April
May
June

47.6

...

July
August
September

r33.3
r!9.0

61.4
54-3
51.4

P83.3

P52.9

P53

66.2

61.5
80.8
76.9

4

92.3

73.1

"65.4

October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on 2d
month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components
for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
2
Based on 72 components through August 1972, on'71 components through January 1973, on 69 components through April 1973, and
on 68 components thereafter. Component data are not shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
4
Average for August 7, 14> and 21.


AUGUST 1973


KCII

97

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

R DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
l
Roughly Coincident Indicators

Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month

D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas) 1

D41. Number of employees
on nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)

D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)

9-month
span

1 -mo nth
span

6-month
span

1971

1-month
span

6-month
span

(2)

1-month
span

D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®

(3)

1-month
span

6-month
span

D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)

1-month
span
(3)

9-month
span
(*)

38.3
61.7
42.6

46.8
61.7
72.3

41.7
36.7
33.3

43-3
55.0
41.7

54.2
50.0
41.7

70.8
70.8
72.9

79.5
75.0
72.7

77.3
81.8
81.8

43.5
65.2
73.9

80.4
87.0
(HA)

48.9
44.7
40.4

57.4
21.3
48.9

70.0
83.3
33.3

43.3
55.0
65.0

79.2
58.3
56.2

62.5
64.6
75.0

68.2
72.7
72.7

90.9
95.5
86.4

73.9
52.2
73.9

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

July
August
September

57.4
25.5
46.8

42.6
57.4
63.8

50.0
60.0
90.0

65.0
58.3
61.7

52.1
45.8
75.0

62.5
66.7
62.5

86.4
90.9
38.6

86.4
72.7
77.3

(NA)
87.0
39.1

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

October
November
December

57.4
66.0
59.6

70.2
74.5
57.4

58.3
65.0
51.7

78.3
80.0
75.0

58.3
60.4
54.2

70.8
87.5

r91.7

25.0
45.5
68.2

75.0
77.3
86.4

47.8
78.3
37.0

(NA)
(NA)
91.3

42.6
46.8
59.6

68.1
63.8
76.6

80.0
71.7
86.7

88.3
90.0
90.0

70.8
70.8

86.4
90.9
79.5

90.9
95.5
95.5

45.7
71.7
87.0

100.0

r77.1

r95.8
r95.8
r83.3

April
May
June

55.3
36.2
53.2

78.7
57.4
70.2

85.0
80.0
78.3

81.7
81.7
85.0

r87.5
r77.1
r75.0

r91.7
r87.5
^95.8

77.3
90.9
79.5

95.5

100.0
100.0

47.8
69.6
37.0

89.1
91.3
95.7

July
August
September

66.0
66.0
46.8

83.0
61.7
80.9

40.0
90.0
85.0

86.7
83.3
86.7

r8l.3
r75.0
r87.5

r87.5
r87.5
r87.5

79.5
75.0
81.8

90.9
90.9
88.6

69.6
76.1
30.4

95.7
69.6

59.6
81.9
38.3

91-5
93.6
61.7

96.7
86.7
78.3

88.3
93.3
91.7

r66.7
r75.0
r66.7

r87.5
r91.7
r91.7

68.2
84.1
86.4

95.5
95.5

100.0

100.0
100.0

January
February
March

67.0
74.5
36.2

68.1
66.0
74.5

73.3
83.3
75.0

88.3

r79.2
r91.7
r62.5

r83.3
r83.3
r79.2

95.5
97.7
95.5

100.0

r78.3
r85.0

April
May
June

53.2
36.2
57.4

66.7
r66.7
rTO.O

r50.0
r70.8
r47.9

P91.7

95.5
90.9
84.1

95.5

July
August
September

63.8

P51.7

January
February
March

....

April
May
June

....

1972

January
February
March

... .

.. .

October
November
December

100.0

28.3
52.2

91.3

100.0

91.3

95.7

1973

P76.7

P93.8

70.5

95.5
95.5

84.8
76.1
65.2

rlOO.O
r95.7
P91.3

30.4

r69.6
r54.3
p69.6

October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d
month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires
no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
^Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
"See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
Data beginning with August 1 7 are not comparable with earlier data due to a revised sample.
91

98




AUGUST 1973

ItCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1973

1972

Diffusion index components

January

December

February

April

March

June1*

May

July?

D1. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(Average weekly hours)

All manufacturing industries

40.7

40.3

Percent rising of 21 components

(29)

+

40.9

(95)

(19)

41.0

o

(50)

-

(48)

r40.7

40.6

(33)

40.9

(19)

+

40.9
(83)

Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

+
.

42.5
39.8
40.0
41.6
42.4

Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries

o
+

o

42.5
39.9
39.0

+
+
+

42.7
40.7
40.6

41.1
42.4

+
o

42.2
42.4

+

42.0
41.1
40.4

-

o
+

42.3
42.2

o
-

x-41.9

42.4
41.0
40.6

+

42.3
42.1

r41.9
r40.7
40.1

+
o

41.7
40.8
40.1

+
+
+

42.5
40.9
40.3

o

42.1
41.9

+
+

42.5
42.9

42.3

+

a. 9

41.8
42.5

+

r41.6
r42.6

41.5
42.5

+

42.9

41.7
42.6

+

+

41.8
42.3

40.4
42.3

+
+

41.1
43.2

40.6
42.0

o
+

40.6
43.5

o
-

40.6

r42.1

40.1
42.0

+
+

40.3
42.7

40.6
39.1

40.4
38.7

+
+

40.8
39.4

40.7
39.3

+

40.8
39.0

+

r40.7
r39.1

40.5
39.0

40.4
35.4

40.1
33.9

+
+

40.2
35.6

o
+

40.2
36.0

40.1
36.5

+
-

r40.4
r35.3

40.2
35.2

o
+

40.2
36.4

39.5
34.5

+
+

41.2
36.0

+
+

41.3
36.2

40.9
36.0

40.8
35.9

+
+

41.2
36.3

42.5
37.8

+
+

43.0
38.0

+
o

43.1
38.0

42.8

42.7
37.8

+
+

42.8
38.0

41.6
41.9

+
o

42.0
41.9

o
+

42.0
42.0

42.1
41.7

+

42.2

41.0
37.2

+
+

41.5
37.8

o
+

41.5
37.9

40.7
38.1

+
+

40.8
38.3

+ 43,016

-

42,706

Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical

o
o

41.6
42.6

41.4
42.4

Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment

+

40.5
42.4

+

+
o

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries

+
o

40.3
38.8

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures

a. 2

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

35.7

Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products n e e
Leather and leather products . .

42.9
37.7

o

+

a. 9
42.2

-

41.3
36.5

+

+

+

a. 6
36.1

o
+

42.8
38.0

o
o

r38.0

41.9
41.9

o

+
+

1-42.1

41.5
38.2

-

r40.8
r37.9

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)

All durable goods industries

+

Percent rising of 35 components

38,325

+ 39,218

+ 39,765

(67)

(51)

+

(61)

41,021

+ a, 341

+

+

+

a. 9

2

+ 42,449

(61)

(74)

42.0

(51)

(54)

(53)

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

+
+

5,557
4,393

+
+

5,694
4,449

+
+

6,015
4,635

+
-

6,500
4,556

+
-

6,656
4,488

+
+

7,042 4,861 -

7,015
4,672

+

6,744
5,005

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery

+
-

6,101
5,010

+
+

6,116
5,320

+

6,093
5,496

+
+

6,443
5,727

-

6,411
5,710

+
-

6,544
5,696

+
-

6,719
5,682

-I+

7,005
5,712

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

+ 10,226
7,038

+ 10,281 +
+
7,514 +

10,503
7,573

+ 11,329
+
7,599

-

10,748
7,492

+ 10,657
6,982

- 10,203
+
7,323

+ 10,739
7,567

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. NA = not available.
p = preliminary, r = revised.
^Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.


AUGUST 1973


99

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1973

1972

Diffusion index components
January

December

March

February

August1

July

June

May

April

023. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1967^100)

+

134-8

+ 139.3

4-

H7.5

4- 155.3

+ 158.2

+

162.9 +

170.1 +

178.1

+ 189. a

(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components . .
Copper scrap Ob.)
Lead scrop (1b )
Stool scrap (ton)
Tin(lb )
Zine(lb.)
Burlap (ydj

,

Cotton (Ib ) 12-markot average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops Ob.)
Hides (Ib.)
Rosin (100 Ib)
Rubber (Ib,)
Tallow (Ib.)

(69)

(85)

0.463
0.434 +
0.056 0.055
+ 43.121 + 43.236
- 1.710 + 1.796
+
0.182 + 0.188
+ 0.179 + 0.183
+
0.324
40.404
+
2.309
0.476
4- 20. 70S
+ 0.219
+
0.076

(77)

(85)

+
4+
4+

0.492
0.059
42.757
1.967
0.195
0.192

+ 0.526
40.062
4- 43.265
42.032
+ 0.199
+ 0.195

0.377
0.363 +
+
0.353 +
0.402
0.406 +
0.409 2.676 + 3.539
+
2.497 +
0.488 _
4- 0.481 +
0.408
- 20.667 + 20.728 - 20.708
0.290
+
0.228 + 0.251 +
+
0.077 4- 0.091 + 0.101

(62)

-I+
+
+

(77)

(81)

(73)

0.570
0.061
47.418
1.980
0.205
0.201

4+
+
+
o
+

0.603
0.062
47.723
2.087
0.205
0.202

+
+
+
+
+

0.659
0.064
52.658
2.173
0.209
0.201

+
o
+
+

40.418
0.396
3.296
_
0.326
4- 20.851
+
0.309
+ 0.113

4-

0.469
0.382
2.811
0.343
21.081
0.312
0.139

+

0.475
0.377
3.196
0.342
21.316
0.370
0.166

+
+
+
+
+
4-

0.534
0.431
3.241
0.37S
21.644
0.430
0.164

r75,321 +

r75,432 +

75,471

(67)

(70)

(65)

(52)

+
+
+
+

4+
+
+

0.681
0.064
55.736
2.396
0.206
0.196

4o
-

0.685
0.064
54-211

_
-

0.204
0.195

+
+
+
44+
.
+

a. 468

0.660
0.550
3.346
0.454
21.756
0.428
D.212

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEESON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls

+

Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, arid glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service
Federal government
State and local government

74,002
(78)

Percent rising of 30 components . .

o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+

+
+
+
+
+
+
+

102
538
421
538
1,033
1,082
1,314
1,306
1,305
289
338

+

74,252
(73)

+

74,715

+

o
102 +
103
+
539 +
543
426
+
424 +
547
+
539 +
- 1,031 + 1,033
+ 1,091 4- 1,104
+ 1,324 + 1,328
+ 1,316 + 1,337
+ 1,310 + 1,327
+
292 +
295
+
339 +
343

11 1 + 1,184
, 8
1,175 +
61
59 +
59 o
902
894
893 +
1,172 1 1 1 + 1,173
, 6
548 +
552
547 +
662
660 +
661
587
590
590 o
119 o
119
15
1
522 +
517 +
529
252
257
253
610 +
612
607 +
3,498 +
3,459 +
3,594
4,582
4,558 +
4,574 +
4,022
3,970 + 4,001 +
11,976 + 12,012 -f 12,092
3,991 +
3,995 4- 4,014
12,537 + 12,621 4- 12,682
2,650 2,628
2,634 10,852 - 10, 8U + 10,905

74,914

+

o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

75,105

+

(67)

(75)

(S3)

102
543
428
550
1,027
1,108
1,343
1,349
1,334
298
343

101
+
544
+
430
o
550
+ 1,033
+
11 8
,1
+ 1,356
+ 1,361
+ 1,351
296
o
343

11 1
, 8
63
900
1,174
554
661
592
117
531
253
610
3,604
4,580
4,029
12,134
4,024
12,716
2,631
10,943

o
o
+
+
+
+
4+
+
+
+
+
+

1,178
63
900
1,182
552
663
593
115
536
256
608
3,571
4,591
4,044
12,173
4,031
12,746
2,628
10,986

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
o
o
+

+
o
o
o
+
+
+
+
+
+

+
+

99
r542
r428
555
1,044
1,123
1,366
1,370
rl,354
r304
343

r98
r541

+
+
+
+
+
+
+

rl,170 +
63 o
r900 o
rl,174 +
557 o
r66l +
596 +
115 +
531 +
r256 4r608 +
r3,620 +
r4,593 r4,046 +
r 12, 210 4,044 +
r!2,776 +
a,6u rll,001 o

4o

r435
r554
rl,052
rl,124
rl,379 rl,386 +
rl,360
r306
r341

rl,173
r63
r900
rl,176
r557
r664
r598
rll?
r5U
r257
r6!3

r3,650
r4,589
r4,071
r!2,173
r4,049
r!2,803
r2,6l3
r l 003
l,

+
+
+
+
+
+
o

+
+
+
+
o
+
+

100
541
430
553
1,046
11 6
,1
1,370
1,394
1,347
302
336

1,177
64
901
1,131
562
666
604
117
539
252
615
3,674
4,601
4,068
12,202
4,049
12,843
2,603
11,026

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: {+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) s falling. MA ™ not available,
p s preliminary, r ~ revised.
1
Average for August 7, 14, and 21.
2
Serics components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The industrial materials price index is not
seasonally adjusted.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.

100




AUGUST 1973

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1972

1973

Diffusion index components
December

January

March

February

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1967=100)

All industrial production

+

Percent rising of 24 components^

121.1

+

(67)

122.2

+

123.4

+

June

May

July P

a

123.7

+

(62)

(92)

(79)

April

124.1

+

(50)

124.8

+

125.4

+

(48)

(71)

126.3
(94)

Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products . .

+
+

125-4
122.3

_
+

123.1
125.7

+
+

124.7
126.2

_
+

123.5
128.4.

+
+

125.8
128.9

_
+

124.2
130.1

+
+

125.0
133.4

+
+

126.0
134-8

Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
I nstru ments

_
+
+
+

144
1!

+
+
-f
+

1 63
1!

+
+
+
+

ll1?! 3
121.2
110.0
131.9

+ 119! 6

+
+
+
+

123!6
126.2
111.0
138.9

+
+
o

i2<s!6

123.9
110.3
133.8

121.5
123.8
110.0
134.7

+

+
+
+

+
_
_
+

124! 9

119.6
106.6
126.6

127.3
110.7
138.9

+
+
+

127.6
111.9
139.7

+

131.0

+

124.3
122.7

+
-i-

126! 8

_
+

126!<S
128.5

+
+

128.9
129.5

+
-

130 ".4
129.1

+
-

132!6
127.4

-

136! 8

125.9

+
+

120.3
134. 5

.. 119 !i

+
+

122.3
142.4

+
+

122.8
143.0

+
-

123!s
141.6

+
+

126.5
144.7

+
-

128!5
141.1

Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products . .

-I+

124.2
1 11
1.

+
+
+

126.1
112.6

+
-

127.1
112.4

126.1
111.7

127.3
112.1

+
+

114.7
129.6

83.0

+

(NA)
86.5

Paper and printing .
Paper and products . . . . '
Printing and publishing .

134*.i
113.0

Lumber, clay, and glass ...
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products . .
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures

Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products . . .
Rubber and plastics products
Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products . . . .
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gasextraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

120.8
107.6
130.1

125.8

+

H-

140.5

+

125.3

112.3

87.4

i~

+
..... -

133.6
111.3

»
•h

13l! 8

112.1

+
+

+
+
+

144.7
125.5
154.7

+
+
+

146.4
127.3
157.1

+
+

+

119-7
102.5

+
+

126! 5

98.6

81.3

(NA)
(NA)

85.0

+

86.8

+
+
-

+
-

137.1
112.4

-

133 '.6
112.2

+
+

135.1
113.2

-

13C)!6
113.1

147.2
124.1
160.4

+

146.8
123.5
163.4

+
+
+

147! 8

126.9
165.1

+
+
+

149 '.2
128.9
166.8

+
+
-

149'.7
129.3
166.3

+
+

122.9
110.3

+

121.8
118.1

-

12l! 3

+

124.2

-

121.8
122.6

112.9

-

111.2

+
+

103.9
109.1

+
_

105.7
107.9

99.9

+
+

131.9
107.8

_
+

127.8
109.4

85.1

138.7
(NA)
(NA)

+

116.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

+

.

_

108.2

+
-

+

128.1
104-0

+
+

107.9

99.1

107.7
13o! 3

106.9

122.1

+

113.5

+
+

150.7
151.3
127.7

(NA)

(NA)

+
+

(NA)

(NA)

+

108.3

+
_

100.9
107.9

+
+

+

128.5
108.8

_
_

127.4
108.4

_ 121! i
_ 104.8

106.4
109.1

122.0
123.0

+
+
+

109.4
109.4
115.9
(NA)
(NA)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. NA = not available.
p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Revised*See irWew Features and Changes for This Isssue," page iii.
^Data.are seasonally adjusted by the source agency,,
3
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

ltd*

AUGUST 1973




101

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1973

1972

Diffusion index components

May

April

March

February

Jaruary

December

July

June

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
*

All retail sales

+ 39, 417

Percent rising of 23 components^
Grocsry stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses {department store merchandise)
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel accessory stores
Shoe stores

+

(52)
+
4-

+
4
+

7,503
2,957
4,008

+
4

+
4+
+

7,894
3,057

4

(76)

Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
,
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores

+

a, 979 -

41,185

4- rU,735

- r 41, 218 +

(70)

(30)

(65)

42,618

(70)

(54)

-

7,800

+

7,834

+ 8,012 4-

r8,074

o

8,076

' (MA)

o

3,057

+
+

3,089
4,439

-

r3,096 r4,326 +
r453

3,092
4,333

(HA)
(NA)
(N/0

44+
+

717
482
762
338

703
476
741 +
349

- 1,048 + 1,145
640
+
601 4
- 1,379 + 1,545
370
332 +
571
4 2,713
- 1,236
740

41,242

4,101 + 4,212
455 +
442 +

Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores

7,729

+

(85)

4
391 +

671
438
730
347

40,707

681
471
788
348

+
+
4
+

+ 1,215 +
659 o
+ 1,556 4
38! +

3,060

489

+
4,167 4
452 +

738
506
825
397

656 4444 4
706 4
339

-

1 1 4 4 1,208 , 8
658
659
1,547 - 1,508 +
388 +
389

7,927 7,945 + 8,127 7,904 +
628 +
642
630 +
+
603 +
2,868 4
o 2,714 4 2,821 o 2,821 +
+ 1,246 + 1,254 - 1,241 4- 1,280 4
795
783 4
779 +
4
759 +
+

r688
r4S6
r753
r335

446

(NA)
(NA)

(M)
(NA)

1,162
rl,203
684
r635 4rl,546 - 1,525
r393 4
413

M
(NA)

r7,870

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

r633
r2,884

-

(NA)
(NA)

7,330

607
-

2,837

1,291 4
r799 +

1,313
806

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 3
(1967=1001
All manufacturing industries

4 120.7

Durable goods:
Lumber gnd wood products
Furniture and housshold durables .
Nonmstallic minerals products
Iron and steel

4-

(86)

Percent rising of 22 components

4
4
+
+

149.8
112.4
127.4
129.5

121.6
(96)

+
4
4
4

151.0
112.6
128.2
131.9

+ 123.6 4 125.7
(98)

+ 161.0
4 1 31
1 .
4 128.4
+ 133.0

(96)

4
4
44

4 126.7

4- 128.7

(96)

173.2 + 182.0
1 41
1 .
113.5 +
129.0 + 130.0
133.3 + 134.0

(91)

4
136.9
4- 1 5 1
1 .
+ 130.5
4 135.3

4 130.9

-

- 183.1
+
115-2
+ 1 11
3 .
4- 135.9

129. 8
(70)

(84)

- 177.8
o 115.2
130-0
o
135.9

Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purposa machinery and equipment

4 1 7 4 4 117.9
1 .
+ 123.3 4 124.4
- 124.8 + 125.2
4 123.4 4 123.9

+ 1 1 0 + 128.3 + 1 1 4 + 133.2
2 .
3 .
125*0 + 125.7 + 126.7
+ 124.7 +
4
125-8 4 126.7 + 127.3 + 128.3
+ 124.3 4 124.9 + 125.6 + 126.4

+ 135.0 + 135.9
.127. 1
4- 126.9 4
+
128.7 +
129.1
4- 127.2 4127.4

Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products

+ 121.0
o 110.6
4 118.4
+ 115.1

4 1 11
2 .
+ 1 09
1 .
118.2
4 115.8

+ 121.5 + 122.4 4 123.1 + 124.4
+ 1 10 +
1.
1.
1 13 4 1 17 + 112.3
1.
1 91
1 .
o 118.2 + 118.6 + 119.0 +
4 1 71 +
1 .
117,9 + 118.6 + 119.5

o 124.4 o 124.4
+ 112.7 o 112.7
- 118.9 + 119.0
+ 120.2 •*>
120.9

Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber toxtile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products . .
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products

129-4. +
132.4
4 124.8 + 126.0
4 108.8 +
114.5
1 .
+ 110.3 + 1 14
+ 116.0 + 116.5

+

+
+
4
o
-

1 51
1 .
104.8
112.0
109.8
142.2

4 137.0
+ 128.2
+ 119.2
+ 1 18
1 .
+ 116.8

+ 115.8 + 116.5
4 105.1 + 105.6
+ 112.3 + 118.7
+ 110.0 4 1 01
1 .
4 144.9
+
H3.9

+
+
4+
+

1U»4

130,0
127.7
115-2
117.0

4
118.3
4
106.7
4
1 9 ,4
1
4
110,3
- 143.5

139-8 4 145.0
4 133.3 + 137.4
+ 129.8 - 127.5
+ 118.7 4 121.5
4 117.7 4 118.4

4- 119.8
+ 107.7
4 127.9
4 110.6
4
145-0

+
4
+
+
-

+ 151.8 4 141.3 44- 131.3 +
+ 122.9 4
4
118.8 o

120.7 4 122.0
109.3 4 110.4
133.9 4 146.6
1 15 4- 112.6
1 .
142.2 - 140.9

146.5
144.6
132.1
123.1
118.8

4 122.3
4 110.8
- 146.1
4 112.9
4H. 4
I

NOTE: To facilitate intepretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) = falling. NA"not available,
p - preliminary, r - revised.

^ata are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. De.ta for the latest month shown are preliminary.
diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.

2
Tho
3

102




AUGUST 1973

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Ql CONSUMER PRICES

Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices®

133. Canada,
index of
consumer
prices ®

132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices®

135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices©

136. France,
index of
consumer
prices®

138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices®

137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices®

47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production

123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production

122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production

126. France,
index of
industrial
production

1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967-100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967-100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

1971
January
February
March

19
1
119
120

13
1
13
1
14
1

123
124
125

Ml

113

120
121
121

125
125
125

112
13
1
13
1

105
106
106

rl!7
rl!8
rl!9

113
110
109

127
129
131

April ...
May
June

120
121
122

115
115
115

128
128
129

114
114
115

122
123
123

127
127
127

113
114
114

106
107
107

rl!9
r!20
r!21

11
1
11
1
112

128
127
130

July
August
September

122
122
122

116
17
1
17
1

130
130
130

115
115
116

124
124
125

127
126
131

1U
115
115

107
106
107

r!21
r!24
125

11
1
11
1
112

132
132
136

122
123
123

17
1
17
1
18
1

131
132
132

16
1
117
117

126
126
127

131
129
129

116
117
117

107
107
108

125
r!25
rl25

11
1
11
1
110

135
136
135

123
124
124

18
1
19
1
19
1

133
134
134

118
119
119

127
128
128

130
130
131

117
118
118

109
110
rl!2

r!27
126
127

110
101
112

138
137
139

April ...
May
June ...

124
125
125

120
120
120

136
136
137

120
120
121

129
130
130

132
133
133

119
120
120

rl!3
rll4
rlH

r!30
128
129

114
116
115

138
Ul
140

July
August
September

126
126
126

122
122
123

138
139
139

122
122
123

131
132
133

133
134
135

121
122
123

rl!5
rll6
rl!8

r!28
r!27
r!31

116
16
1
118

143
143
143

October .
November
December
1973
January

127
127
127

123
123
124

141
142
143

124
124
125

134
135
136

136
135
137

124
125
126

rl!9
r!20
r!21

r!34
r!35
r!37

119
121
122

143
147
148

March

128
129
130

125
126
126

144
144
145

126
127
128

136
136
137

138
140
143

127
128
130

r!22
r!23
r!24

r!37
rHO
r!4Q

122
123
125

152
152
153

April
May
June ...

131
132
132

128
129
130

148
149
150

129
129
130

138
139
(NA)

145
148
148

131
133
134

r'124
r!25
r!25

140
p!40
(NA)

125
p!25
(NA)

149
P155

133

131

149

(NA)

pl26

Year
and
month

October
November
December
1972
January
February
March . .

....

February

...

July
August
September

(NA)

:_i2

(NA)

'

(NA)

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are siown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

BCII AUGUST




1973

103

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q STOCK PRICES

QH INDUSTRIAL PROOUCTION-Con.
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production

128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production

121.0ECD, 1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production

127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production

19. United
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks @

143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices @

142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©

146. France, 145. West
index of
Germany,
index of
stock
stock
prices©
prices®

148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®

147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices; ®

(1967=100)

(1967-100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967-100)

(1967=100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

January
February
March

138
139
138

163
162
164

126
126
126

17
1
17
1
16
1

102
106
108

108
108
109

123
122
120

136
139
137

125
134
137

145
151
161

91
94
93

April
May
June

140
138
138

163
159
162

127
126
127

13
1
13
1
14
1

12
1
11
1
108

12
1
108
109

131
146
147

137
1
U
140

135
138
137

171
172
182

89
85
83

July
August
September

139
134
138

163
164
165

128
125
129

12
1
104
17
1

108
106
108

109
107
108

157
158
164

141
135
128

135
136
129

190
179
170

83
82
78

October
November
December

138
137
129

164
165
165

129
129
127

16
1
17
1
19
1

106
101
108

10
1
98
107

160
156
165

18
1
124
124

124
124
133

166
168
178

78
75
77

140
137
140

166
168
170

131
128
132

19
1
17
1
115

12
1
14
1
17
1

17
1
19
1
121

175
180
186

128
130
140

137
146
152

195
204
215

78
76
74

142
142
139

170
172
173

132
134
133

14
1
17
1
17
1

18
1
17
1
18
1

121
123
127

191
194
184

147
155
147

157
161
159

230
241
257

79
80
78

July
. .
August
September

141
138
144

172
177
179

133
133
135

14
1
12
1
15
1

17
1
121
19
1

126
134
133

187
195
185

156
162
163

159
165
160

273
290
300

80
80
79

October
November
December

144
146
149

11
8
184
190

137
139
141

124
122
123

19
1
125
128

133
134
1
U

180
186
191

164
153
149

155
156
155

309
327
354

81
86
86

18
1

129
124
122

146
145
143

182
168
164

174
173
185

167
165
173

387
364
363

S3
B4
93

120
17
1
14
1

142
135
135

168
167
171

r!91

196
rP189

174
11
6
157

3U
339
338

p!04
pl!7

15
1

rp!38
P I
H

161

rp!83

rpH7
PH6

355
P354

rpllO
P95

Year
and
month

(1967-100)

1971

1972

January
February . . „
March . . . . „
April
May
June

„
„

1973

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

151
155
151
r!55
P150
(NA)

r!94
r!94

202
200
p206
(NA)

142
144
r!43

144
P145
(NA)

(NA)

pl!3

p!57

p!75

9?

•October
November
December ....
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only end
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

104




AUGUST 1973

KCII

APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered

Monthly series

Cl

1

C

I/C

MCD

I/C
for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

1.46
1.52
1.57
1.47
1.50
1.59
1.54
1.56
1.45
1.66

11.09
11.57
10.17
8.38
16.20
11.09
6.89
10.52
9.35
8.75

3.56
3.95
3.78
3.23
3.09
3.44
4.21
3.29
2.59
3.37

MCD

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
*1.
*5.
*6.
8.
9.
*1Q.
*12.
13.
14.
*17.

Average workweek of production workers mfg
Avg. initial claims, State unemployment insurance .
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts, total value
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
Index of net business formation . . .
New business incorporations
Liabilities of business failures® .
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . . ,

*19.
*23.
24.
28.
*29.
*41 .
42.
46.
*47.
48.

Stock prices, 500 common stocks®
Industrial materials prices®
New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense
New private housing units started, total
New building permits, private housing
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities .
Help-wanted advertising
Industrial production
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments

50.
*52.
53.
*54.
55.
*56.
58.
59.
*62.
65.

Number of job vacancies, manufacturing
Personal income
Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction
Sales of retail stores, current dollars
Wholesale prices, industrial commodities®
Manufacturing and trade sales ...
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Book value, mfrs.' inventories of finished goods . .

66. Consumer installment debt
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
*71 . Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories .
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted
811. 12 leading indicators prior to reverse trend adjustment
813. Marginal employment adjustments
814. Capital investment commitments
815.
816.
817.
820.
825.
830.

Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
5 coincident indicators
5 coincident indicators, deflated . .
6 lagging indicators

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

53-May
53-Apr.
53-May
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-May
53-Feb.
53-Mar.
53-Apr.
53- June

73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73

.47
4.74
3.27
6.67
9.10
4.70
.85
2.53
24.07
.55

.43
4.18
2.88
6.39
9.00
4.41
.63
2.24
23.49
.49

.16
1.97
1.30
1.52
1.23
1.42
.57
.95
2.10
.23

2.65
2.12
2.21
4.21
7.31
3.12
11
.1
2.36
11.20
2.10

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
.... Jan.
Jan,
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

53-May
53-May
53-May
59-Apr,
53-Apr.
53-May
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-May

73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73'
73

2.49
1.38
4.31
6.23
4.19
.29
.33
2.70
.88
.41

1.71
.90
3.91
5.83
3.64
.13
.25
1.65
.49
.28

1.61
.97
1.53
1.71
1.80
.26
.20
1.98
'.69
.28

Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

69 -Apr.
53-June
53-June
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-June
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-June
53-Apr.

73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73

4.56
.60
.81
.97
.21
1.00
.24
.93
.57
.60

1.99
.25
.47
.80
. 1
1
.71
.14
.80
.47
.29

Jan. 53-Mar. 73

3
3
3
5
6
4
2
3
6
3

.89
.76
.71
.88
f1)
.81
.61
.83
.85

2.12
1.83
1.94
1.61
1.56
1.68
2.62
1.85
1.48
1.98

1.07
.93
2.56
3.41
2.02
.50
1.23
.83
.71
1.00

2
1
3
4
3
1
2
1
1
2

.61
.93
.87
.84
.69
.50
.63
.83
.71
.53

2.46
2.90
.1.85
1.90
1.96
4.98
2.41
3.16
3.86
3.09

1.64
1.79
1.55
1.61
1.46
1.52
1.50
1.50
1.52
1.52

9.04
10.17
13.56
8.14
10.57
22.18
17.36
9.72
12.79
14.35

3.98
2.90
3.36
3.17
3.26
4.98
3.84
3.16
3.86
5.40

3.88
.54
.63
.52
.18
.63
.19
.41
.27
.51

.51
.47
.75
1.53
.61
1.13
.75
1.96
1.73
.56

1
1
1
2
1
2
1
3
2
1

.51
.47
.75
.85
.61
.59
.75
.73
.99
.56

5.33
5.98
3.18
2.15
4.96
2.45
4.26
1.88
2.09
3.52

1.92
1.56
1.52
1.60
1.66
1.53
1.68
1.52
1.73
1.46

12.00
35.00
14.41
24.30
10.57
11.67
9.72
10.12
14.41
14.29

5.33
5.98
3.18
3.72
4.96
4.28
4.26
4.23
3.54
3.52

C1)

.82

.13

.81

.16

1

.16

11.52

1.58

34.57

11.52

.... Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

53-Ap.r.
53-Ju.ne
53-May
53-May
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Ms.r.
53-Apr.

73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73

1.79
.54
.90
1.32
.98
.87
.89
.82

1.41
.18
.32
.51
.53
.54
.51
.64

1.02
.51
.83
1.18
.80
.68
.63
.48

1.38
.34
.38
.43
.66
.80
.81
1.34

2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2

.69
.34
.38
.43
.66
.80
.81
.64

1.94
9.07
7.39
5.67
4.26
2.93
3.27
1.96

1.46
1.57
1.68
1.62
1.55
1.55
1.69
1.48

11.57
35.00
16.27
15.25
11.05
13.50
9.31
9.72

3.02
9.07
7.39
5.67
4.26
2.93
3.27
4.25

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Ms.r.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.

73
73
73
73
73
73

.86
.93
1.09
.89
.90
.86

.71
.53
.92
.40
.44
.29

.45
.68
.48
.76
.74
.81

1.57
.78
1.92
.52
.59
.36

2
1
3
1
1
1

.88
.78
.83
.52
.59
.36

2.25
3.16
2.02
5.93
5.40
7.36

1.62
1.72
1.72
1.50
1.54
1.55

10.12
8.10
8.64
16.20
18.69
16.20

3.02
3.16
4.07
5.93
5.40
7.36

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan,
Jan.
Jan.
July
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

53-Apr.
53-Apr.
59-Apr.
63-Ms.r.
57-Ms.r.
59-Apr.
53-Ms.r.
56-ME.r.
53-Msir.
53-Apr.

73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
72

.21
.24
6.36
12.29
6.12
4.48
11.66
23.65
18.76
17.87

. 1
1
.14
6.13
12.19
5.79
4.11
11.42
23.45
18.68
17.77

.18
.19
1.06
1.40
1.72
1.17
1.12
1.90
2.18
1.40

.61
.75
5.77
8.72
3.36
3.51
10.17
12.37
8.56
12.66

1
1
6
6
4
4
6
6
6
6

.61
.75

4.96
4.26
1.71
1.47
1.67
1.90
1.52
1.50
1.46
1.57

1.66
1.68
1.60
1.42
1.52
1.74
1.54
1.48
1.42
1.51

10.57
9.72
8.14
11.09
8.82
10.06
6.56
8,24
9.31
11.00

4.96
4.26
3.02
2.39
3.18
3.57
2.06
2.16
2.24
2.31

Feb.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

68-May
64-M&,y
64-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
56-Apr.
56-Apr.

73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73

17.12
.45
.25
.33
.63
1.27
.24
.41
.21
.31

17.05
.13
.17
.25
.49
1.05
. 1
1
.27
. 1
1
.08

1.47
.45
.16
.20
.37
.57
.21
.28
.17
.31

11.61
.29
1.04
1.21
1.33
1.86
.51
.93
.62
.26

6
1
2
2
2
3
1
1
1
1

1.50
9.00
1.56 112.00
1.48 13.87
1.72 11.05
1.62 11.05
8.68
1.55
1.53 14.29
1.74
8.10
1.56 15.92
1.54 207.00

2.15
37.33
5.50
4.57
4.03
3.77
6.75
2.89
4.40
69.00

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
55.
58.
502.
506.
508.
512.
616.
621.
625.
647.

Wholesale prices, industrial commodities®
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
Exports, excluding military aid . .
Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
General imports . .
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations, procurement . . .
Military prime contract awards in U S
New orders, defense products industries

648. New orders, defense products
740. Average hourly earnings of production workers
741 . Real avg. hourly earnings of production workers
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities®
751 . Wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
752. Wholesale prices, farm products
781. Consumer prices, all items®
782. Consumer prices, food
783. Consumer prices, commodities less foods
784. Consumer prices, services®
See footnotes and detinitions of measures at end of part 1.




1

C )

f1)
.80
.91

?}

f1)
f1)

C1)
.29
.54
.73
.80
.78
.51
.93
.62
.26

1.50
37.33
2.92
2.89
2.56
1.99
6.75
2.89
4.40
69.00

105

A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes—Continued
Period
covered

Monthly series

1

Cl

C

I/C

MCD

I/C
for
MCD
span

Average duration of *un
(ADR)
Cl

1

C

MCO

0. OTHER KEY INDICATORS-Continued
841
842
843
859.

Total civilian Icibof forco
Total civilian employment . ,
Numbor of persons unemployed
Real spendable average weekly earnings, nonagri. production
or non.'tupv. workers . . . .

Jan. 53-Apr. 73
Jan. 53-Apr. 73
Jan. 53-Apr. 73
Jan. 64-Apr. 73

.28
.29

.32
.34

2.70

3.46

.41

.15
.18
1.87

1.84
1.61
1.45

3
2
2

.65
.86
.78

2.11
2.27
2.17

1.52
1.52
1.54

20.25
24.30
9.00

4.63
3.32
3.32
3.32

.37

.16

2.35

3

.86

1.95

1.66

13.87

.79

.42
.84
.65

1.89
1.88
11
.1

3
3
2
1

.67
.73
.56
.87

2.78
2.17
2.79
2.43

1.55
1.64
1.49
1.58

10.65
13.50

2
4
2
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
1
3
3
2

.89
.74
.91
.60
.95
.82
.56
.82
.84
.83
.60
.60
.71
.88
.92
.95
.70
.75
.63

4.23
2.65
3.29
2.71
3.21
2.73
4.94
8.96

1.59
1.50
1.59
1.52
1.54
1.70
1.58
1.75
1.99
2.05
1.64
1.77
1.77
1.81
1.78
1.85
1.78
1.88
1.68

34.43

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
851 . Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, uofillsd orders to shipments durabls goods .
853. Ratio, production of bus. equip, to consumer goods
860, Ratio, hDlp°wanted advertising to persons unemployed

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

53-Jxine
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.

73
73
73
73

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

53-Feb. 73
53-Feb. 73
53-Jan. 73
53-FelD. 73
53 -Feb. 73
53-Jan. 73
53-Mar. 73
53-Mar. 73
53-Apr. 73
53-Mar. 73
53-Mar. 73
53-Feb. 73
53-Mar. 73
53-May 73
53-May 73
53-May 73
53-May 773
53-May 73
53-May 73

.91

1.58

1.82

.99

.72
3.21

5.25

3.70

.87

5J.06
4.02
4.32
2.43

9.72
9.72

l:. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121.
122,
123.
125.
126.
127.
128.
132.
133,
135.
136.
137.
138.
142.
143.
145.
146.
147.
148.

OECD European countries, industrial production
United Kingdom, industrial production
Canada, industrial production ...
....
West Germany, industrial production
France, industrial production
Italy, industrial production
Japan, industrial production
United Kingdom, consumer prices®
Canada, consurnor prices ©
West Germany consumer prices©
France, consumer prices®
Italy, consumer prices®
Japan, consumer prices®
United Kingdom, stock prices ©
Canada, stock prieas® . ,
West Germany, stock prices®
France, stock pricos ®
Italy, stock prices®
Japan, stock prices®
. . .

Jan.

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

.94
1.10
1.00
1.37
1.64
1.69
1.59

.48
.29
.33
.49
.35
.77
3.22
2.73
3.21
3.86
3.51
3.75

•Series included In the 1966 NBER 'short list" of 26 Indicators.
when MCD is "6."

.92
1.05

.96
1.27
1.64
1.57
1.32

.51
.34
.35
.47
.38
.76
2.54
2.19
2.10
3.24
2.82
2.45

.55
.38
.53
.63
.65
.73
1.17

.36
.23
.26
.40
.33
.42
1.81
1.55
2.20
1.82
1.75
2.42

1.68
2.76
1.80
2.01
2.50
2.15
1.13
1.43
1.52
1.36
1.17
1.18
1.80
1.40
1.41

.95
1.78
1.61
1.01

15.19
12.74
11.52
26.78
4.10
2.90
3.34
3.49
2.46
2.65
3.59

©Measures are based on unadjusted data.

7.74
5.53
3.03
8.24
6.13
7.00

9.64

16.00
21.91
18.54,
18.46
16.13
22.00
11.03

a. 34

9.31
9.64

10.48
10.48
20.17
14.18
12.68
34.29

16.13
9.04
9.04
6.97
8.13
8.71
7.39

7.27
3.74
4.26
3.49
4.48
5,04
4.76

•"•Not shown

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in
Electronic__Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as
Occasional Paper" 67 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"CT" is the average month-to-rnonth percentage change, without regard to
sign, in the seasonally adjusted series (i.e., the series after adjustment for
measurable seasonal, trading-day, and holiday variations).
"CT" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average
of the seasonally adjusted series.
*T" is the samo for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical
component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD" {months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the
appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly
series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD,
percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the
cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month
spans {Jan.-Mar,, Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the
shortest span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard
to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it
indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became
dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an MCD
greater than "5" are shown as "6".

106



"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity
(large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and
for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C ratio is shown for the
MCD period,
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is
equal to the average number of consecutive monthly changes in the same
direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2
months, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I,
cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average {with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally
adjusted series.
A comparison of these ADR measures with the expected ADR of a random
series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those of a random
series. Over 1-month intervals, the expected ADR of a random series is 1.5, and
the actual ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over
1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the expected
ADR is 2. For example, take the case of a series with ADR measures of 1.56, for
Cl, 1.45 for I, 8.71 for C, and 3.15 for MCD. The 1.56 for Cl indicates that
1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series reverse sign, on average, about
as often as expected in a random series. The 1.45 for I and 8.71 for C suggest
that the seasonally adjusted series has been separated into an essentially random
component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. The 3.15 for MCD indicates
that the MCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted data reverses direction,
on average, about every 3 months. Thus, for this series, month-to-month changes
in the MCD moving average usually reflect underlying short-term trend
movements while month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series
usually do not.

A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered

Monthly series

Unit of
measure

Cl

1

C

I/C

MCD

I/C
for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

MCD

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
2 Accession rate manufacturing
3 Layoff rate manufacturing
20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories of
materials and supplies.
21 Avg wkly overtime hours prod workers mfg
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods indus
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments
60 days or longer @
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories.
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries ©
33 Change in mortgage debt
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans2
40 Unemployment rate married males
*43. Unemployment rate, total
*44 Unemployment rate 1 5 weeks and over
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate
85. Change in money supply (M1)
93. Free reserves @
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks (M2)

Jan. 53-Apr. 73 Per 100
employees . .
Jan. 53-Apr. 73 . . . d o
Ann. rate,
Jan. 53-Apr. 73 bil.dol
Jan. 56-May 73 Hours
Jan. 53-May 73 Bil do)
Jan. 53-Apr. 73 Pet. reporting .
Ann. rate,
Jan. 53-June 73 bil.dol
Jan. 53-Apr. 72 Pet. reporting .
Jan. 55-Feb. 73 Ann. rate,
bil.dol

Jan.
Oct.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

53-Apr.
64-Feb.
55-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.

Jan. 53-May
Jan. 53-May
Jan. 53-May

73' Pet. reporting .
73 Percent
73 . . . d o
73 . . . d o
do
73
73 ...do
73 Ann. rate,
percent —
73 Mil.dol
73 Ann. rate,
percent —

103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks
and nonbank institutions (M3)
Feb. 64-Apr. 73 . . . d o
1 12 Change in business loans
Aug. 59-May 73 Ann. rate,
bil.dol
Jan. 53-Mar. 73
do
*113 Change in consumer installment debt
114.
115
1 16.
117
118

Treasury bill rate@
Treasury bond yields @
Corporate bond yields @
Municipal bond yields (§)
Mortgage yields residential®.

Jan. 53^July 73 Percent
Jan. 53-July 73 ...do
Jan. 53-July 73 ...do
Jan. 53^1 uly 73 . . . d o
Jan. 53-Apr. 73 . . . d o

.18

.17

.05

3.13

4

.81

2.04

1.52 11.05

3,24

.15

.13

.05

2.45

3

.86

2.34

1.52

5,02

.20
.04
.13

7.40
1.99
3.72

6
3
4

t1)
.65
.98

1.62
3.41
1.67

1.56 10.57
1.59 13.00
1.55
8.13

2.80
3.72
3.17

2.54

3

.83

1.81

1.60

9.35

3.65

7.08

6

1

C)

1.44

1.46

11.14

2.55

1.51

2

.96

2.86

1.71

8.68

4.10

2.85

3

.94

1.81

1.45

9.86

3.12

1.93
2.83
1.69
1.41
1.19

3
4
2
2
2
1

.82
.64
.93
.75
.59
.77

2.29
1.92
3.00
2.61
4.96
4.42

1.62
1.67
1.49
1.56
1.53
1.77

7.59
7.14
8.42
9.00
6.57
7.59

3.89
3.13
3.89
4.10
7.81
4.42

C1)

6.26

1.50

.09
.52

2.82

1.48

.09
.50

2.59

4.14

4.10

3.48

2.82

1.60

1.45

3.04

2.59

.06
.14
.16
.07
.16
3.16

104.09

.06
.12
.13
.05
.09

3.16

85.78

1.02

.58
1.87

.51

1.34

.02
.07
.09
.05
.12
.57
54.92

.77
5.50
1.56

6
2

1.03

9.35

.95

2.03

1.43
1.56

10.17

2.69
3.16

2.54

2.47

.54

4.54

5

;98

1.66

1.52

6.59

2.47

1.81

1.65

.64

2.57

3

.95

2.04

1.53

7.86

3.86

3.82
1.33

3.78
1.25

.59
.39

6.35
3.19

6
4

C1)
.82

1.70
1.66

1.70
1.52

10.31
10.08

3.08
3.62

.12
.06
.1
1
.09
.03

.13
.04
.07
.05
.05

1.48
1.59
1.74

1
3
3
3
1

.96
.70
.69
.79
.56

2.80
2.70
2.34
2.54
7.84

1.73
1.89
1.73
1.82
1.93

7.03
7.94
9.84
8.48
7.36

2.80
4.60
3.87
4.14
7.84

115.81 111.69
.12
.16
.19
.21
.78
.74
.13
.16
.45
.47

22.71
.10
.08
.21
.08
.15

4.92
1.20
2.30
3.52
1.68
3.01

6
2
3
4
2
4

(X)
.64
.81
.86
.84
.77

1.58
3.04
1.91
1.60
2.54
1.64

1.45
1.53
1.53
1.45
1.53
1.42

7.04
6.94
9.72
6.23
9.62
7.22

2.62
4.17
4.16
3.12
4.26
3.56

.19
.08
.13
. 1
1
.05

.96

.56

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
500
844
845.
846.
847
848.

Jan. 58-Apr. 73 Mil.dol
Merchandise trade balance
Jan. 53-Apr. 73 Percent
Unemployment rate males 20 years and over
Jan. 53-Apr. 73 ... do
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-1 9 years of age . Jan. 53-Apr. 73 ... do
Jan. 54-Apr. 73 . , .do
Unemployment rate white
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Jan. 54-Apr. 7:3 ...do

*Series included in the 1 6 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
96
<u)Measures are based on unadjusted data,
when MCD is "6." 2Biraonthly series; average changes, MCD, and average durations of run are for bimonthly spans.

1

Not shown

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for
series with zero or negative data and for other series where it seems appropriate,
such as series expressed in percent.
Thus, "Cl" is the average month-to-month change in the seasonally adjusted
series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the
same unit of measure as the series itself.




"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by
subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part I.

107

B. Current Adjustment Factors
19 73
Series
Jan.

5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13 Nsw businiss incorporations

1

Feb.

U2.9 110.3
110. S

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
mfg 2

93.6

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

84.5

120.8

91.5

89.1

81.5

106.9

102.1

107.2

104.1

99.9

106.9

96.1

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies1 3 .

-507

-608

-266

37. Purchased material, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories

96.5

101.5

112.8

-323

+119

110.0

108.7

Aug.

83.1
99.3

Sept.

77.3
89.3

Oct.

85.6

101.9

108.9

-17

106.9

104.0
89.3

Dec.

128.9
94.4

99.3

97.5

+637

l\!ov.

+481

+133

+119

98.9

90.9

87.6

-01
91.7

+338

84.9

39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
105.3

88.7

99.7

98.9

99.6

99.9

99.3

104.1

616 Defense Department obligations, total

104. a

85.8

90.0

621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement

102.8

87,4

91.3

84.0

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical
machinery

625. Military contract awards in US
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) S

- 1
1

100.0

99.4

91-4

113.9

99.4

100.3

100.7

100.9

100.2

100.0

98.2

106.8

103.2

98.8

99.3

95.0

84.5

138.3

106.8

97.2

107.7

103.9

80.3

78.1

68 1

180.9

77 L

1/.2 6

107 9

Q2 6

117 4

89,2

75.1

76.9

179.0

97.3

103.3

105.5

81.7

106.2

101.8

+14

65 2
110.7

-9

100.0

96.0

+6

99.4

100.0

92.1

99.9

89.1

97.2

.. •

NOTE: These series are not published in seasonally adjusted form by the sourcs agency {except series 13 and 034). Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For e description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment
Program.

^Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
fQuarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
a
Th©s© quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adj- _anent program.
4
Bimonthly series. Factors are for- even-numbered months (February, April, June, August, October, and December).
y
l-quarter diffusion index; Hgures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program,' ar©
subtracted to yi©ld the seasonally adjusted index.

108



C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix provides historical data {back to 1945 if available) for
selected BCD series. Data are shown for series which (a) have recently
been added to the report, (b) have recently been revised, or (c) have not
been shown here for a long time. By keeping these tables, the user can
acquire a complete set of historical data. Each time a series is included
in this appendix, it is footnoted to indicate the extent of any revisions
since it was last shown. See the "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding
Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published for

each series. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables each
month and may be used to update these historical tables.
Series shown here are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated
by ©, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Official source
agency annual figures are shown if available. Such figures are often
derived from data with more digits or from data which have not been
seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual
figures computed from the monthly or quarterly data shown.

Monthly

Quarterly

Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Annual

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

1
6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS 1 NEW ORDERS. DURABLE GOODS I N D U S T R I E S
( B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S )

II Q

III

Q

IV Q

TOTAL FOR P E R I O D

* •»
1947.
1948.
19U9.
1950.

5.66
7.46
7.14
7;56

5.98
7,50
7.08
7.62

5.90
7.82
6,67
7,86

5,69
8,00
6.16
8.35

6,21
6,06
6,02
9,23

5.92
6.85
5.75
9.39

5,95
8.65
5.93
11.52

6.19
8,92
6.85
14.21

6.83
8.38
6.92
11,79

6.99
8.34
6,77
12.00

7.36
7,95
7.12
10,95

7,72
7.72
7,00
11.68

17, 54
22,78

1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955,
1956.

IS.^6
11.06
14.^5
9.99
H.48
15.72

14.08
11.06
14,21
10.31
13.92
14.61

14,64
12.81
13.34
9.72
14.96
15.04

13.84
12,94
13.69
10.17
14.24
15.69

13,25
10,66
13.58
9,75
14,51
IS, 16

12.66
13.00
13.20
10.29
14. 84
15.06

12,61
12.04
12.35
10,50
14,96
14,75

11.41
11,76
10.89
10,45
15,04
17,73

10,75
12.66
9.71
11,69
15,74
14,78

11.98
11,85
9,99
12.64
15.74
14.64

11.55
11.95
9,94
11.14
15.74
15,76

1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.

15.16
11. *2
15.52
15.68
14.16
17.27

15.64
11.67
16.90
15,52
14.36
17.30

15.14
12.66
16.98
15.27
14.44
16.78

14,11
11.69
17.06
14.92
15.26
16,59

14, 56
12.44
16,30
15.36
15,48
10,80

14.23
13.13
16.72
15.43
i5.B3
lb.41

13,43
13,40
16.08
15.25
15.56
16.71

14,03
13,32
14,62
15,65
16.46
16.79

13,64
13,64
15.25
15.69
16,26
17,01

12,96
14.63
15.48
14.50
16.40
17,51

1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.

17.96
19.69
22.49
25.10
24.52
25.68

18.53
19.35
21.81
25.12
24.51
26,00

18.78
19.37
22.28
26.32
23.95
27,14

13.41
20.03
22,78
25.81
24.46
26.50

16,90
20,25
22.29
25.74
25,53
27.28

17.89
20.32
22,45
26.12
26.11
27.71

18.72
21.27
23.17
25,83
25.31
26.30

1B.29
19.74
23.50
25.03
26.16
27.15

18,78
20,96
22.84
27,01
25.35
26,26

1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.

29.47
26.80
2P.72

30.46
27.88
29.17

30.01
27.17
29.22

30,14
26.99
29.06

29.17
27.89
28.66

29.21
28.34
28.34

29,49
28,54
29.62

29.32
27.92
30.83

30,39
27,32
29,86

10.

2o.ts9
23,04

16,02
24,91
17,93
26.97

18.97
26.15
19.70
37.52

22,07
24,01
20,89
34,83

76!oO
97,85
79,41
122,36

11,18
12.69
9,96
12.60
16,42
15,73

44,18
34.93
42,00
30,02
42,36
45,37

39,97
36,80
40.47
30.21
43.59
45.91

34,77
36,46
32.95
32.64
45.76
47.26

34,71
36,69
29,89
36,38
47,90
46,35

153,63
144,86
145,31
129.25
179,61
164.89

13,56
15,36
14.57
14.62
16.91
17,24

12,54
14,62
15,76
14,86
17,46
IB. 04

45. V4
35, V5
49,40
46,47
42,96
51,35

42,92
37.26
50,10
45.71
46.57
49,80

41.10
4Q.36
45.95
46*59
48.30
50.51

39, OB
44,61
45,81
43,98
50,77
52.79

169.04
158.18
191.26
162,75
186,60
204,45

13,95
20.39
23,66
25,90
25.67
30.22

13,64
20,34
24,11
25,05
25,99
29.60

16.42
21.51
24.72
24,96
26.65
29,53

55,32
58,61
66,38
76, 54
72,98
78,62

55,20
60.60
67,52
77,67
76,10
81,49

55,79
61.97
69.51
77.67
76,82
81.71

56,01
62,24
72,49
75,93
60,31
89,35

222,32
243,42
276,10
308,01
306,21
331,37

29.94
26.24
30.49

29.15
25.92
31.19

26,32
28,49
31,25

69, 94
81,85
87,11

66.52
83,22
86.76

89.20
83.78
90.31

87,41
80,65
92.93

355.07
329,50
357,11

19!e3

C O N T R A C T S AND ORDERS FOR P L A N T AND E Q U I P M E N T 2
( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)

TOTAL FOR PERIOD

!!!
1948.
1949.
1950.

1.^0
1.31
1,60

1,72
1.42
1.60

1.66
1.41
1.74

1.64
1.21
1.74

1.59
1,25
2.16

1,84
1.37
2,09

1.68
1,26
2.53

1.60
1,36
3,20

1,59
1.49
3.01

1.62
1,43
2.71

1.60
1.61
2.72

1,59
1,46
3,00

4.08
4,14
4,*4

5,27
3,83
5,99

4.67
4.11
8.74

4,61
4,50
8,43

16,58
28,10

1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956,

3.43
2.51
?.S4
2.20
2.50
3.35

3,51
2,55
2.88
2.24
2.72
3.26

3.19
2.59
2.64
1.91
3.15
3,28

3.21
2.56
2.86
1.96
2.93
3.40

4,36
2.39
2,00
2,60
3,56

2.98
2.69
2.16
2.05
2,99
3.60

2.84
2,76
2.66
2,15
2.97
3.43

2,73
2,48
2.23
2,15
3,15
3.41

2.36
3,34
2.57
2,31
3.33
3,33

2.63
2,50
2.72
2.43
3,20
3.34

2.63
2.36
2.3«
2.25
3.45
3,79

2,33
2.83
2,14
2,40
3,45
3,56

10,13
7.65
8,36
6.35
8,37
9,09

10.55
7,64
7,80
6,01
8,72
10,56

7.93
6.53
7, to
6.61
9.H5
10,17

8,09
7,69
7,20
7,06
10,10
10,71

36,70
31,56
30,82
26.05
36.64
41.33

1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.

3.65
2.77
3.09
3.27
3.«8
3.62

3.55
2.67
3.19
3,35
3.40
3.94

3.52
2.66
3,73
3.27
3.25
3.65

3,15
2.69
3.3?*
3.52
3.27
3,85

3.29
2.72
3,46
3.51
3,22
3,68

3.13
2.85
3.54
3.41
3.41
3.61

3.06
2.75
3.61
3.41
3.49
3.65

3,13
3.13
3.22
3.41
3.67
3.66

2,63
3,14
3,63
3.44
3.43
3,64

2.69
3.04
3.50
3.34
3.51
3.73

2,69
3,00
3,30
3,20
3,72
4,00

2,74
2,91
3.49
3,49
3,43
4,08

10,72

10,01
9.89
10,13
11.21

9,57
8,26
10.35
10,44
9,90
11.14

9,02
9.02
10.46
10.26
10.59
10.95

8,52
6,95
10,29
10*03
10,66
11.81

37,83
34,33
41.11
40.62
41.26
45.11

1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.

3. SO
4.70
4.99
5.61
5.28
6.09

3,91
4.?4
4.93
6.37
5.80
7.57

3.68
4.43
5.22
6.25
5.91
8,50

3,98
4.46
5,25
6.45
5.70
7.61

1,36
4.82
5,18
6,30
5,83
7,63

3.99
4.95
5.10
6.13
6, 06
7.72

3.96
4.64
5.27
6.56
6.00
e.03

4,07
4,69
5,08
6.25
6.34
8.98

4.20
4.75
5,49
6,83
6,07
7,82

4.28
4.79
5.51
6,30
6.39
9,47

4,50
5.10
5.45
6,03
6,17
6,43

4,56
5.17
5,82
6.04
6.33
6.92

11, 59
13, J7
15.04
18,43
16,99
22,16

12,33
14.23
15.53
16.66
17,59
22.96

12,23
14.06
15.64
19.66
18.41
24.83

13,34
15.06
16.7fl
18,37
18,39
26,82

49*49
56.74
63.19
75.34
71.88
96,77

1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.

9.59
9,13
6.33

9.67
9,11
8.62

8.72
8,20
8,59

9.64
8.98
6.75

9,19
b.39
3.69

6,38
6.27
6.86

6.97
6.66
8,49

8,93
8,37
9.03

9.36
6.06
8.83

8,87
7,98
9.04

6.66
8.36
9.38

6,86
6.86
9,43

26,26
26,44
25,54

27.71
25,64
26.30

2?. 20
25.13
26.35

26,39
25,20
27,85

109,64
102.41
106,04




a, 76

L 1967.
i 1968.

a, 10

(AUGUST 1973)

109

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly

Annual

Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

£0, CHANGE IN BOOK VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES OF MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES1
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

-0.5

-0.4
-1,9
3.1
0.4
1.8
0.6

0,1
2,2
1.8
-0.3

0.
5.
3,
2.

1.0
4,P
3.8

1.1

-0,6
0,6
1,6
1.2

-0,8

0.

0.2

1.7

1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.

6,8
-2,7
-1.1

2,7
-1.5
0.3

5.5
-1.0
1.5

5.9
-0,9
0,4

1.5

1.0
1,0

-0.7
2.0

1.2
2.2

0,9
2.S

1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962,

-0.5

0.7

0.5

0.2
2.3

1.6
1,6

3.2
1.5

3.2
0,1

2.7

2,1

2.2

1.3

4.7
0.4
-0,7
1,6

7.0
-0.4
-2.0
0.4

1963.
1964.
1969.
1966.
1967.
1968.

0.0
-0.8
0.5
1,6
4.4
-0.1

0,0
-0.1
1.2
2.6
2.1
2.1

1,0
0.3
2.8
1.6
1.7
0,2

0.9
-O.B
4,3
2.7
-0.2
4,4

-0.5
0,2
1,7
3,9
0,1
3.9

0.7
0.1
0.2
4.6
n.6
1,8

1.0
-0,2
1.8
2.7
2.3
3.1

1,3

-0.2

1,4

-0.9

-0.5

0.4
5.7
1,7
2.1

2.5
1.6
-0.4
0.6

0.8
2,4
1,0
1,2

1,2
2,8
2,6
-1,7

1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.

0.6
-1.6
-0.1

1,2
3.6
0,6

3.4
0.8
-1.2

2.6
-1,6
5.2

2,6
-1,4
3,2

-0,3
-0.4
2.0

1,2
-0.1
2,2

0.7
1.6
-1.4

2,6
1.1
-3,3

2,7
2,2
0.2

1.1
2,4
-0.2

0,7
3,1
2,7
.,
04

1.7
0,6
-1.2
-0,4

-2.5
4,4
-0,9
-0,6

5,3

6,9

6,0

1,3

-3,5

2,6

-0.5

-0.8

1,3

-0.2

-2.3

-0,6

1.1

3.0

1.9

0.0

3.6

0.0

1,1

0,8
1.6

1,7

i'.o

2.9

8,6

0.0

1,0

5,1

7,6

5.0

3,1

.,
07

0.**

-2,1

0.2

1.3

0,7

-1,7

0.5
1,7

1,1

2,6

a,'-

2,1

.0,1

2,^

0,2
-1.1
1.7
1.6
-0,9
2,3

-0.6
-3,0
5.0
0,0
-1,6
1,1

0,5
0.0
..
25
.,
09
2,0
0,3

-0,3
O.b
O.fe
-2,0
1,7
0,0

2,8
2,8
1.8
0.6

0,3
-0,2
1.5
1.9
2.7
0.7

0,4
-0,2
2,1
3,7
0.2
3,4

0,7
1,1
1,6
3.4
1.2
1,9

0,0
3,7
l,e>
2,7
l.tt
0,0

3,0
0,9
1.3

1.7
0.9
-0.2

1,6
-1,1
3,5

1,5
0,9
.,
06

2,3
1,H
0.4

2,6

2.0

3.9

1.2

-0,1
0,0
-3.9

.2
.4
- .8

1,3
1.7
-4,1

0,0
-0,9
2,2

-2.1
0.6
3.5

1,8
-0.3

-0,1

0.5

-ol3

-0,3

VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, CAPITAL GOOUS INDUSTRIES, NONOEFENSE2
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

-0.6
3,9
1,6
-0.,

0,9
3,3
.1,2
0,0

0,1
2,9
1,3
0,6

1

8.3

0.0
2.5
2,2
1,7

1

0.2
1.8
2.7
0.9

1.1

,3

IV Q

-0.1
4.3
2,9
0.5

-1.0

-0.4

Q

I I

0.2
3,7
0,1
0,0

III

AVERA6E FOR PEKIOO

1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.

0,7
5.4
-2.4
0.4

II Q

TOTAL FOR PtRIOD

1947.,,
1946. .
1949. ,
1950. .

1,28
1.13
1.32

1.43
1,22
1,42

1.45
1.21
1.43

1.62
1,02
1.49

1.31
1,08
1.88

1,57
1.13
1.81

1.38
1,36
1,06
1.13
2.22 ' 2,81

1,36
1,26
2,64

1,39
1.19
2,40

1.40
1,25
2,, 37

1,43
1,20
2,68

4.16
3.56
4,17

4,50
3,23
5.18

4,12
3,45
7,67

4.22
3,64
7,43

17.00
13,86
24,47

1951.
195?,.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.

.
,
.
,
.
.

3. C(S
P..16
?.57
1.76
2.09
2. 72

3.09
2.25
2.43
1.86
2.29
2.55

3. 92
2.30
2.29
1.56
2.62
?,66

2.86
2.22
2,41
1.65
2.30
2.82

2.74
2,04
2,30
1.61
2,31
2.99

2.56
2,23
1,90
1.65
2.47
3.02

2.46
2,36
2.09
1.75
2.43
2.77

2.35
2,07
1.84
1.74
2.59
2,84

2.11
2,20
1,86
1,94
2.57
2.64

2,40
2,19
1.80
1,93
2.64
2.88

2.36
1,97
1.78
1,83
£.77
3.21

2,37
2,19
1,76
1,95
2,87
3,07

9,07
6,73
7.29
5,20
7.00
7.95

8,18
6,49
6,61
4,91
7,08
8,83

6.92
6,63
5,81
5,43
7,59
6,45

7,15
6,39
3.34
5,71
8,ga
9.16

31,32
26,20
25,05
21,25
29,93
34,39

1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961,
1962.

.
.
,
,
.
.

2.96
?.28
2.62
2.73
3,74
3.06

?.96
2.16
2.70
2,83
2.76
3.27

2,83
2.21
3,06
2.78
2,76
2.92

2.61
2.25
2.79
2.90
2.73
3,20

2,63
2,26
2.92
2,89
2,66
3.02

2.53
a.28
3.00
2,87
2,81
2.97

2.52
2,29
3.03
2,78
2.94
3,00

2.56
2.46
2,79
2.78
3.06
2,99

2.42
2,56
3,04
2,75
2.91
3,06

2,36
2.48
2.93
2.69
2.94
3.11

£.33
£.58
2.74
2.60
3,04
3.34

2.16
2,47
2,96
2,86
2.88
3,15

8,75
6,65
8,38
6.34
6.26
9,25

7.77
6,79
8,71
6,66
3,20
9,19

7.50
7,31
6,66
8,31
6,93
9,05

6.8S
7,53
8.63
8,13
6,86
9,60

30,87
2U,23
34,58
33,46
34,25
37,09

1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.

.
.
,
.
.
.

3.21
3.94
4.13
4.79
4.43
5.06

3.29
3.52
4.06
5.25
4.69
6.44

3.34
3.77
4.40
5.17
4.73
7.21

3,49
4.12
4,23
5,37
4,88
6.46

3,33
4.23
4,38
5,31
5.03
6.49

3.36
3.90
4,46
5,57
5,13
6.79

3,47
3,94
4.34
5.20
5,24
7,16

3.53
3,92
4.50
5.46
4,99
6,54

3.54
4.01
4,63
5.36
5.04
7.84

3.45
<-,C6
4.72
5,15
5,12
7.23

3.61
4,15
5,05
5,19
5.40
7.36

9.b4
11.23
12,59
15,21
13.85
18.71

10,17
12,07
12,95
16,01
14,69
19,85

10.36
11.76
13.30
16,23
15,36
20,49

10,60
12,22
14,40
15,70
15,56
22,4,5

40,97
47,28
53.24
63,15
59,46
81,46

1969.
1970.
1971,
1972.
1973.

.
.
,
,
,

7. ¥9
6.^1
7.00

8.34
7.35
7,06

7.50
6.66
7,06

7.60
7,15
7,18

7.60
6.89
7.31

7.59
7,24
7,10

7,62
6,97
7,32

8,07
6,83
7,34

7.33
6,84
7,62

7.53
6.93
7,62

7,03
7,48
6,02

23,43
20,94
21,12

23.68
20.88
21.62

23,26
21.04
21.76

21,69
21, 25
23,46

92.28
84,11
67,96

.35
.72
,3<*
.33
,78
.90

6.48
6.84
7.13

25. CHANGE IN MANUFACTURERS'UNFILLED ORDERS,, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.

*».
-0.33
-0.99
0.58

-0.16
-0.30
-0.65
0.36

-0.17
-0.14
-0.96
0.41

-0,42
0.01
-1.30
0.46

-0.35 -0,40
-0,34
0,73
-1.10 -1.24
0.43
0.77

-0.76
0,36
-0.88
2.33

-0,50
0.21
-0.41
3.91

-0.01
-0.27
-0,30
2.18

-0,49
-0.44
0.34
1.97

-0.04
-0,61
0,43
Jt. 12

0,06
-0,86
0.26
1.29

..,
-0,26
-0,93
0.45

-0.39
0,13
-1,21
0.53

-0.42
0.10
-0,53
2.81

-0,16
-0,64
0,34
1,46

-0,16
-0,56
1,32

1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.

5,^1
0.«9
1.73
-?,46
0.76
1.31

3.72
..1
00
0.42
-1.69
0.62
0.23

3.91
1,97
-0,80
-2.49
1.19
0.41

3.31
2.18
-0.52
-1.83
0.36
1,22

2.42
0.21
-0.09
-1,79
0,34
0,55

2.60
2.72
-0,33
-1.67
0.56
0,26

2.25
1.80
-2.18
-1,19
0.81
1.46

0.97
0.65
-2.25
-1.00
0.65
1,90

0.80
0.65
-3,49
0.30
1.16
0,12

1.32
-0.56
-2.54
1.31
1.47
-0.16

0.61
-0,65
-1,85
-0.82
1,16
0,25

0,45
-0,48
-1.94
-0,06
1,87
0,07

4.35
0.85
0,45
-2,21
0.66
0,65

2,76
1,70
-0,38
-1,76
0,42
0.68

1.34
1.10
-2,64
-0,63
0,86
1,17

0,86
-0,5*
-2,11
0.1^
1,50
0,05

2,33
0,77
-1,17
-1,12
0,92
0,64

1957.
1958,
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962,

-O.S5
-?,C3
1.B7
•1.^0
-0.42
0.43

-0.02 -0.87
-1.40 -0.67
1.42
0.83
-1.00 -1,38
-0.03 -0.32
0.36 -0,59

-0.66
-0.79
0.76
-0.94

-0,64
-0,32
-0.44
-0.77

-1.25
-0,09
-0,09
-0.42

-0.62

-0,33

-0,33

-1.73
0.10
-0,13
-0.56
0.34
-0.16

-1.70 -1,41
-0.21 -0.22
0.00
0.90
0,33
0.13
0.48
0,02
-0.43 -0,19

-1.91
0,39
1.10
-0.75
0,13
0.23

-JI, 45
-1,44
0.64 -0,01
0,00 -0,31
-0.30 -0.19
0.36
0,59
-0.19
1.07

-0,36
-1,37
1.04
-1.26
-0,26
0,07

-0,92
-0,40
0.06
-0,71
0,23
-0,43

-1,61
-o.ll
0,26
-0,03
0,23
-0,26

-1,60
0,34
0,2$)
-0,41
0,36
0,37

-1,13
-0,36
0,41
-0.60
0.15
-0.06

1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.

O.P1
0.66
1.38
1.60
-0.01
-l.£6

0,91
0,19
0,60
1.20
-0.08
0,93

1,19
0.43
0.36
2.00
-0.78
0.00

0,52
0.55
0.76
1.37
-0.07
-0,71

0,74
0,83
0.71
1.26
0,63
-0,39

-0,47
0.92
0.57
1.51
U.98
0.18

-0.16
1,33
0.54
1.60
0.52
-2.09

0.03
0.34
0.49
0.60
0.46
1.07

0,30
0,67
0,85
1.81
-0.03
0,51

-0,01
0,95
1,03
0.42
0.86
1.31

-0,01
Q.35
0.93
-0.17
0.13
0,77

-0.37
0,44
1,08
-0.17
1.33
1,26

O.V7
0.43
0,78
1.60
-0,29
-0,24

0,26
0,77
0,66
1.39
0.51
-0.31

0,06
0,76
0*63
1,34
0,32
-0,17

-0,13
0,58
1,01
0,03
0,77
1,11

0,29
0,64
0,78
1,09
0,33
0,10

1969.
1970.
1971.
197P.
1973.

0.?5
-1.88
0,07

1.03
-0.75
-0,02

0.77
-0.95
-0.48

0.96
-0.95
-0.39

0,40
-0.79
.1,11

0.11
-0,36
-1,58

0.30
-0.44
-0,25

-0.49
-0,89
0,40

0.20
-1,22
0,00

-0,67
-0.93
0.31

-0.62
-0.63
0.40

-1,16
0.06
0.21

0.66
-1.19
-0.14

0,49
-0.70
-1,03

0,00
-0.85
0.05

-O.tii
-0,50
0,31

0,09
-0,61
-0,20

'This
Thif)

a

110




o.3i

0,21 o.ie

revisions beginning with 1967.
revisions beginning with 1968.

(AUGUST 1973)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly

Annual

Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

June

May

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

31. CHANGE IN BOOK VALUE OF MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES, TOTAL
{ANNUAL HATE, 3ILL.IONS OF DOLLARS)

1943. .
1949. .
1950. .

9!e
1.9

29.2
5.7

1951. .

6.6
0,3

17.8

7,1
-3.1
18,4

4.5
-7.8

16,6

o.O
-5.5

2.0
-6.5

14.5

s.4

11,4
-4,4

5,1
-2,9
21,9

5.2
1.0
17.8

5,0
-4,0
20,0

4,5
9,1

3.2
12.7

7.6
5.1

0.8
13,1

1957. .

6,6

2.4

1.9

3.7

1959.
1960.
196S..
1962.

,
.
.
.

2.4
10.6
-5.0
6.8

4,7
13.0
-2.0
7.1

5.1
9.4
*5.7
8.0

14.6
0.7
0.0
1.5

1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.

.
.
.
.
.
.

1,5
5.7
10.5
8.9
15.5
8.4

3.6
4.2
6,0
16,7
8.1
8.7

3.0
4.9
15.4
14.5
7.4
4.8

1969. .
1970. ,
1971. .
1972. .
1973. .

5.8
3.2
10.4

15.0
14.3
10.3

12.0
4.7
9.3

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
3,0
-5,5
24,0

-0.9
-7,2
17,4

2)3
2.3

5,2
-ft, 6
6.4

7,2
-2.1
12,2

2,4
-5,6
20,5

-316
10,3

3,6
2,3
5,0
.3,5

2.6
6,3
-5,2
0,0
6.5
6,7

10,4
2.1
3.7
-3,0
6.4
1.3
-2,1
5,0

2,5

3.2

21,8

13,5

11.3
5,0

-3,4
-0,3
7.3
4.4

9,1
-4,0
5,1
9.0

6.1
-4,3
4,9
9.2

-8.6
2.3
1.8
-1.5
1,3
5.4

-2.1
2,1
-1.2
1.4
7.6
0,9

0.8

3.6

1.5

5.2

14.3
-10,9
1.9
2.0

4.1
11.0
-4.2
7.3

10,3
3,3
-0.1
5.5

0.5
0,6
4,3
6,2

-3,3
4.0
5.0
-3,7
3,6
2,6

0,1

2,8

1955. .
1956. .

IIIQ

-7,1
4,2
7,0
10.7

2,8

5.2

5.4

1953. .

II Q

2,6
-0.9
5,0
8.0

-5.0

-3.e

t>,a

fc.O
6.4

6.6
5.7

6.9
5,4

0.9

3.0

7,0

6.4
6.8
1.1
8.9

9.9
2.4
-1.3
6,1

7.2
4,0
2.2
4.3

-0,5
-3,6
5,3
5.6

5,6
4,2
-5,2
2.2
5.3
8,7

1.2
6.6
7,8
12.7
6,0
15.7

4.6
4.4
8.1
18.6
2.9
15.1

5.7
5.2
0,5
20,6
2.7
9,7

5.1
2.0
11.8
14,0
6.9
5.1

5.7
4.9
12,7
17,7
12,0
12.1

6.9
13.3
3.9
12,2
3,0
8,2

8.6
-0.4
6,0
18,7
3.4
14.7

5,5
9.6
9,1
17,2
13,6
8.3

0.9
11.3
12.7
IB, 2
17.6
11.8

2.7
4.9
10.6
13.4
10.3
7.3

3,9
5.4
6,5
17,3
4.5
13.5

5,9
6,7
9,5
14,6
7,3
6,5

5,0
6,6
9,3
16,0
11,5
11,6

4.4
6.0
9.5
15.8
«.4
10.2

12.1
13,0
11.6

11.9
-1,1
10.4

10.8
12.8
4.1

11.6
15,6
7.5

9.9
7.8
7.7

13,2
6,5
13.9

13, B
2.3
5.1

7,4
11,6
2.1

13.9
6,1
12,4

10,9
7,4
10.0

11,6
8.2
8.8

11,6
10,0
9,7

11,7
6.7
6,5

11.4
«,1

6.0
8.0

-0.1

56. MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SJLES
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

6,4

7, a

2.9

0.
.9
5,4

a, e

TOTAL FOR PEKIOO

1945, . .
1946.
1949.
1950.

34,353
35,053
33,632

34.131
34.737
34.464

34,380
34.489
34,893

34,890
34,189
35,474

34,702
33,521
36,686

35,393
33,648
36,462

35,861
33,065
42,054

36,053
33,623
43,205

36,012
34,189
41,024

35,864
32,915
40,665

35,571
33,275
39,88C

35,662
32,934
43,028

102,664
104,279
102,969

104,990
101,358
110,622

107,946
100,877
126,283

107,097
99,124
123,573

422,697
405,638
463,467

1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.

45.242
43.279
47,760
45.968
49.320
53,110

44,563
43.664
£18,392
46,435
49,828
52.874

43,983
43.296
48,987
46,183
50,744
53,235

43,250
43,767
48,935
46,640
51,334
53,660

43,566
44,228
48,904
45,866
51,467
53,768

43,172
44,346
4B,398
46.349
51,645
54,124

42,082
43,452
49,372
46,180
51,885
51,804

42,807
44,286
48,185
45,798
51,784
53,695

42,703
45,721
47,828
45,842
52,907
54,439

43,193
47,139
47,540
46,011
52,642
55,209

43,140
46,853
46,333
47,465
53,248
55,613

42,733
47,496
45,602
48,603
53,391
56,255

133,606
130,239
145,139
136,586
149,692
159,219

129,968
132,341
146,237
138,855
154,446
161,552

127.592
133.461
145,385
137,820
156.576
159,938

129,066
141, 46«
139,475
142,079
159,481
167,077

520,454
537,529
576,236
557,340
620,395
647,786

1957.
1958.
1959.
i960.
1961.
.1962.

^6.568
53,7f>l
*7,701
Al.806
58.612
64.291

57.006
52.836
5B.714
61,555
56,883
64,287

56,597
52.305
59,341
61,075
59,825
65.155

55,770
52,333
60,529
61,660
59,397
65,220

55,651
52,754
61,377
60,827
60,166
65,155

56,119
53,593
61,333
60,672
61,113
64,736

56,133
54,071
61,013
60,468
60,553
65,040

56,682
54,802
59,013
59,927
62,026
65,614

55,601
55,020
56,695
60,374
62,336
65,865

55,513
55,631
56,789
60,165
63,134
66,264

54,946
56,645
58,466
59,415
63,709
67,147

53,837
57,077
60,434
59,626
64,022
66,059

170,171
156,642
175,756
164,436
177,320
193,733

167,540
158,680
183,239
163,159
160,676
195,111

166,616
163,693
176,921
180,769
184,915
196,539

164,296
169,353
177,689
179,226
190,865
199,470

670,623
650,768
715,605
727,590
733,776
7B4,653

1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.

66,372
71.897
77,244
85.199
80,416
94,151

67.542
71,671
77,195
35,498
87,833
94,419

67,637
71.470
78,876
87.189
88.350
95.204

68,208
72*590
79,190
66,605
88,559
95,166

68,176
73,344
79,132
86,116
88,690
96,196

66,790
73,166
79,435
87,563
89,674
96,967

70,032
74,142
80,869
66,738
89,327
98,265

69,240
73,944
81,143
87,795
90,485
96,176

69,699
75,167
80,347
86,382
90,924
98,528

70,565 69,792
73,803 74,666
81,827 83,301
88,492 87,841
69,666 91,688
99,561 100,014

71,162
77,045
83,951
88,061
93,456
99,124

201,551
215,038
233,315
257,686
264, 5V9
283,774

205,174
219,102
237,757
260,284
266,923
266,331

208,971
223,253
242,359
262,915
270,736
292,971

211,519
225,514
249,079
264,394
274,810
296,699

827,215
882,907
962,510
1,045,479
1,077,066
1,163,775

106,052 104,677 104,507
104,243 102,824 105,621
113,781 116,007 116,095

302,766
312,662
325,730

307,553
313,627
335,302

311,780
317,643
339,905

315,436
312,686
345,883

1,237,537
1,256,640
I,346,ti20

4,35
5,80
7,54
9,15
8.9H
9.22

4.35
5.80
7,54
9,15
8,96
9,22

1969.
1970.
1971.
1972,
1973.

100.108 101,095 101.565
104,003 104.606 104,073
107.132 108,649 109.949

102,144 102,547 102,662
103,255 104,956 105,416
110,632 111,732 112,938

102,861 103,976 104,943
105,904 105,868 105,371
112,234 113,816 113,655

65. MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES OF FINISHED GOOnS, BOOK VALUI-, ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.

4.16
4.33
6.13
7.73
P. 33
8.99

4,07
4.62
6.32
7.84
9.52
9.03

4.03
4.54
6.43
7.96
9.64
9.09

4.05
4.46
6.57
3.02
9.62
9.08

4,03
4.39
6.69
8,13
9,53
9,03

1951.
1952,
1953,
1954,
1955,
1956.

9.33
12. «8
12.45
13. *2
13.55
14.20

9.49
12.55
12,40
13.64
13.61
14.39

9.65
12.64
12.41
13.71
13.65
14.48

9.98
12.57
12,47
13.56
13.60
14.59

10.43
12.33
12.66
13.46
13.62
14.62

1957.
1958.
1959,
1960.
1961,
1962.

16.35
16.74
16.24
17.23
13.49
16.98

16.40
16.67
16.31
17.45
18.62
18.94

16.52
16.63
16.36
17.68
18.60
19.02

16.56
16.61
16.45
17,83
18.71
19.02

1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.

19.98
20.^4
21.61
22.69
25.36
27,18

20.01
20.76
21,65
22,79
25.61
27.17

19.97
20.84
21.74
22.96
25.61
27.27

1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.

29.73
31.50
34.26

29.00
31.81
34.37

29.26
31.98
34.57

NOTE:

4,05
5.08
7.28
8.53
9.25
8,57

4,14
5,37
7.37
8,60
9,13
6.66

4.20
5.83
7,57
8,95
9.12
6.65

4.36
5,91
7,55
8.99
8.92
9,17

4.35
5,80
7,54
9.15
d.98
9.22

4.03
4.54
6.43
7.V6
9.64
9.09

4.00
4.37
6.63
6,22
9.52
9.10

10.91
12.34
12,80
13.47
13.62
15.24

11.55
12,31
12.93
13,45
13,61
15.42

12.05
12,35
13.14
13,32
13.72
15.71

12.34
12.36
13.31
13.26
13.75
15,96

12.32
12,33
13.47
13.32
13.82
16.02

12.22
12.32
13.57
13.28
13. «8
16.21

12,28
12,33
13,62
13,46
14,01
16.19

9.65
12.64
12.41
13.71
13.65
14. 4B

10.91
12.34
12,80
13.47
13.62
15.24

12.34
12.36
13.31
13.26
13.75
15.96

12, 2B
12,33
13,62
13,46
14,01
16,19

12,20
12.33
13.62
13.46
14,01
16.19

16.72
16.50
16.52
18.03
18.70
19.23

16.78
16.42
16.47
16.23
16.75
19.41

16.89
16.28
16.50
18.38
18,67
19.57

16,92
16.13
16.59
18.37
18,82
19.71

16.86
16.11
16.63
18.50
18.72
19,66

16.86
16.11
16.70
16,55
18. 9e
19.94

16.74
16.24
16.61
18.57
18,99
19,94

16,75
16,25
17,00
18.54
18,83
20,06

16.52
16.66
16.36
17.66
18,60
19,02

16,78
16.42
16.47
18.23
16,75
19,41

16. 6B
16.U
16.63
IP, 50
18,72
19, 8b

16,75
16,25
17.00
16,54
18.83
20,06

16,75
16,25
17,00
IB. 54
1B.B3
20.06

19.89
20.96
21.55
23.01
26.13
27.29

19.98
21,01
21,66
23.22
26.32
27,40

20.21
21.00
21,79
23.50
26,35
27.52

20.11
21.06
21.94
23.74
26,46
27.62

20.26
21.08
21.94
23,90
26,65
27,84

20.44
21,07
22,10
24.19
26,75
28,14

20.44
21.30
22. lb
24.40
26.79
28.25

20.57
21.39
22.32
24,75
26.67
28,45

20.63
21.50
22.46
25.03
27.01
28.70

19.97
20, B4
21,74
22. V6
25.01
27.27

20.21
21. 00
21,79
2J.50
26,35
27.52

20.44
21.07
22,10
24.1^
26,75
28.14

20.63
21,50
22, 4A
25,03
27,01
28,70

20.63
21.50
22.46
25,03
27.01
26.70

29.53
32,51
34.41

29,36
32,50
34,45

30,08
32.73
34.42

30.27
32,98
34.18

30.45
33,11
34.27

30.66
33.31
34.56

30.70
33.58
34.90

31,08
33,90
34.87

31,26
33,84
34,61

29.26
31. VB
34. S7

30.06
32,73
34.42

30.66
33,31
3U.56

31.26
33,64
34,81

31,26
33,64
34,81

These series contain revisions beginning with 1967.




END OF PERIOD

4,06
4.71
7.10
8.43
9,39
8.79

4,00
4.37
6.b3
8.22
9,52
9.10

4.14
5,37
7.37
8.80
9.13
fl.6d

(AUGUST 1973)

111

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly
Year

Annual

Jan,

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

49. MANUFACTURERS' MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT SALES AND BUSINESS CONSTRUCTION
EXPENDITURES1 (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

II Q

III Q

IV 0

AVERAGE FOR PtRIOD

1949. . .
.,,

,,.

1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.

33.49
31. "9
29.70
34. SI

33.85
30.46
31.14
35.07

33.28
29.39
31.75
35.56

34.04
28.90
31.60
38.02

33,70
26,48
32.37
33,51

32.31
2B.27
32.82
39.99

32.82
29,26
32.26
39,50

31.30
26.29
33.24
39.51

31.39
26.36
34,21
39,34

31.93
27.34
34.20
40,62

31.02
26.22
34.39
41,84

30.46
29,06
34,93
42,51

33. b4
30.45
30. 66
35.05

33,35
28,55
32,26
38.84

31,84
28.64
33.24
39, 4S

31,14
28, 21
34,51
41,66

32,47
26,96
32,72
38,75

1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.

41. 77
38.04
36.71
41.00
40.60
4?."1

42.65
36.64
37,56
40.62
40.61
43.51

41.47
36.47
37.99
41,20
40. ?7
44.23

41.29
35.24
38.39
41.62
40.42
44.82

40.89
34.63
39,50
41,92
40.07
45,51

40.68
35.45
39.79
41,55
40.58
45.66

39.99
34.32
41.31
42,53
39,90
45,10

41,24
35.16
40.24
40.26
41.69
46,17

40,39
35,26
40,74
41,31
42,16
45,30

40,62
35.07
40,50
40.97
42.56
45,12

40,01
36,04
40,17
40,65
42,90
45.16

38,09
35,74
41,08
41,06
43,17
44,10

41.96
37,05
37,42
40. *4
40. b6
43.36

40,95
35,11
39,23
HI. 71
40.36
45,33

4o.s4

39, 5?
35,62

40,90
42,tJO
44. 7§

40,76
35,67
3V, 50
41,23
41,26
44,76

1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.

44*34
50.23
57.47
68,12
73,, 16
96,57

45,16
50.04
58.39
68.05
72.80
93,46

44.72
50.57
60.22
70.90
72,08
94.25

46.07
51.32
61.01
71.08
71.47
96.43

46.87
52,58
61.24
71.24
71,89
94.62

46.60
53.35
61.38
72.83
73.12
95,4,1

47,56
55, 65
6.!
24!
73.76
73,5],
V4.5),

47.82
53.98
62.02
75.01
74,35
95,40

46,18
54,64
64.06
74,94
74,52
97.07

46.91
55,26
65.42
75.60
73.56
98.49

48,45
55,66
66,65
74.33
74,63
100,21

46,65
57,15
68,95
75,05
77,93
97,44

44.74
50.26
58.09
69.02
72.68
94,76

»6.51
52.42
61.21
71.72
72,16
95,55

47,66
54.76
62.83
74.56
74.13
95.66

48,67
56 , 02
67,01
75,06
75,37
96,71

46, 9b
S3, 37
62.44
72, b9
73,36
96,17

1969.
1970.
1971.
197?,
1973.

101.23
104,24
103.62

103.47
106.91
104.20

104.19
105.14
105.55

103,73
106.44
103.72

104.37
107,13
105.47

10b.48
103.84
106,32

106.1?
107.3(1
104.19

106,78
106.79
104.46

109.55
104.42
106.12

108.36
103.61
108.29

107.26
104.21
109.81

106,62
104.83
114.19

102.96
105.43
104.46

104,53
105,80
105,17

107, SO
106,20
105.60

107.41
104, 22
110,76

105,60
105,41
106, bQ

»,»

71. MAMUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES, TOTAL BOOK VALUE 2
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

34,91
40,76
41.37
4 . 23
)
45.&2

4o, sa

END OF PERIOD

1947. * .
1946.
1949.
1950.

47.52
53.30
49.66

48.24
53.33
49.63

48.83
53.06
50.07

49.20
52.41
50.37

49.36
51,67
51,06

50.11
51.42
31,67

51.06
51.0!)
51.40

51.49
50.61
53.23

51.92
50,89
54,71

52,34
50,56
56,38

52.58
50.10
58.37

52,51
49,50
59,62

48,63
53.06
50.07

50,11
51,42
51,67

5l.V2
50,89
54,71

52.SU
49.30
59,62

52, bl
49,50
59,82

1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.

6?, . 26
70.72
74.01
75.73
73. S5

80.37

63.74
70,63
74.19
75.44
73.82
81.33

65,27
70.62
74.64
75.12
74.45
81.75

66.65
70.43
75.37
74.74
74.52
62.84

67.87
70,05
75,69
74,42
75,02
83.51

66.65
70.23
76.17
74,04
75,69
84.04

69.10
09.9'S
76.96
73.70
76 ,2i4
94.512

69.53
69,91
77,19
73,24
76.96
84.96

69,53
70,80
77,41
73,17
77,39
65,63

69,77
71,58
76,99
72,85
78*33
66,05

69.96
72,06
76.40
73.20
78,91
86.94

70.24
72,38
76,12
73.18
79,52
87,30

65.27
70.62
74.64
75.12
74,45
61,75

68.65
70,23
76,17
74.04
75,69
84,04

69,53
70,80
77.41
73,17
77,39
85.63

70,24
72.38
76,12
73,18
79, 52
87,30

70,24
72,36
76,12
73,18
79,32
67,30

1957.
1958.
1959.
i960.
1961.
1962.

67.85
3d. 66
87.12
92.78
94.,33
9ft «21

88.05
88.07
87.52
93.86
94.16
96.81

88.21
87*62
87.94
94.64
93.69
97.47

88.52
66.92
89.16
94.70
93.69
97.60

88.51
86.35
89.69
93.26
93.79
96.34

88.38
86.09
90,51
95.46
93.68
96.85

88.83
65.79
91,1.2
95.79
93.86
99.20

69,42
85.56
91,08
95.46
94.30
99,67

89,86
65,91
90,65
95,67
94,74
100,39

89.16
96.10
90.80
95.54
94,65
100.84

88.99
86.26
90,70
95.66
95,49
100.92

89,05
86.92
91, d9
94,75
95,65
101.09

66,21
87,62
67, V4
94,64
93,69
97.47

86.56
86,09
90, SI
95.46
93.68
98. 8S

89,86
65.91
90.6S
95.67
94,74
100,39

69. ©S
66,92
91,89
94, 7S
95, 6b
101,09

69,05
66,92
91,89
94.75
95,65
101,09

1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.

101*22 101.52
105.95 106.30
112.33 112.83
121. ft4 123.03
138.02 138.70
.145.86 146.59

101.77
106,72
114.11
124.24
139.32
146,99

101,87
107.27
114.76
125.30
139.98
148.29

102,27
107,64
115,43
126.85
140.23
149.55

102.75
106.07
116.22
123.57
140,45
150.36

103.17
100.24
117.21
129.73
141.02
150.78

103,65
108.65
116,27
131.21
142.02
151.79

104.22
109,75
US, 59
132.22
142,27
152,47

104.94
109.72
119.09
133.78
142.56
153,70

105.40
110.52
119,64
135,21
143.70
154.39

105,48
111,46
120.90
136,73
145,16
155.38

101,77
106.72
114,11
124.24
139,32
146,99

102,79
108.07
116,22
128,57
140,45
150,36

104.22
109,75
118.59
132,22
142,27
152,47

105,48
111,46
120,90
136,73
145, lb
155,36

10b.46
111.46
120,90
136,73
14b,16
15b,36

1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.

159.96
167.08
175.74

157.11
168,26
176.60

158.11
168.66
177.38

159.12
169.74
178.36

160.10
169,65
179,23

161.00
170.71
179.57

161,96
172,01
180.19

162.79
172.67
180,84

163,89
173,21
142,00

165.04
173.40
182.42

165.66
174.37
102.59

166,81
174.88
163,62

138.11
168,66
177.36

161.00
170,71
179,57

163,89
173,21
182,00

166.61
174,86
183,62

166,81
174,86
183,62

96. MANUFACTURERS' UNFILLED ORDERS, DURABLE GOOOS INDUSTRIES2
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

END

OF PF.KIOU
* »•

,,,

1947.
1948.
1S49.
1950,

31. «3
28.35
25. A3
20.20

31.66
27.96
24.78
20.56

31.49
27.81
23.82
20.97

31.07
27.82
22,52
21.43

30.72
27.49
21.42
21,86

30.32
26.22
20.18
22,63

29.56
28.56
19,30
24,96

29.06
28.80
18,69
28.87

29.05
28.53
18.59
31.06

26.56
28.09
18,93
33.03

28, 52
27,48
19.36
34.14

28,58
26,62
19.62
35,44

31,4V
27.61
23,52
20. V7

30,32
28,22
20,18
22.63

29.05
26,53
18,59
31,06

26, SB
26,62
19,62
3S,44

28, bb
26,62
19,62
33,44

1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.

40.04
63.99
74.41
56.18
4ft. 03
57. BS

44.56
63.98
74.83
54.49
46.65
57.78

48.47
65.95
74.03
52.00
47.84
58.19

51.77
68.13
73.51
50.17
48.20
59.41

54,20
68,34
73,42
49.38
48,54
59.96

56,60
71.06
72.89
46.71
49.10
60.22

59, C4
72,87
70,71
45.52
49,91
61.70

60.01
73.52
68.46
44,52
50.56
63.60

60.81
74.37
64.97
44.82
51.74
63,72

62.13
73.80
62,43
46.13
53.21
63.56

62.94
73.16
60,58
45,31
54,37
63,81

t>3,39
72,68
58.64
45,25
56,24
63,88

46.47
65.95
74, 03
52.00
47,64
56.19

r
>6.30
71,06
72,89
46,71
49,10
60,22

60.81
74,37
64.97
44.82
51.74
63,72

63,39
72,68
58,64
45,2*5
96,24
63, at<

63,39
72.68
36,64
49,25
56,24
63,63

1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
19A2.

63.63
4'*. 32
46.61
49. 2§
42.98
45.67

63.61
46,92
48.03
48.25
42.95
46.03

62.74
46.25
48.86
46.87
42.63
45.44

61.88
4S.46
49.62
45.93
42.94
44.82

61.24
45,14
49.18
45,16
43,14
44,49

,59.99
45.05
49,09
44.74
43.33
44.16

58.26
45.15
48.96
44.18
43.67
43.99

56.56
44.94
48.96
44,51
44.15
43,56

55.15
44,72
49,86
44,64
44,17
43,33

53.24
45.11
50,96
43,69
44,30
43.60

51,79
45.75
50.96
43,59
44,65
43,41

50,35
45,74
50,65
43.40
45,24
44,49

62.74
46.25
46. B6
46ftt7
42.63
45.44

59.99
45,05
49,09
44,74
43,33
44,16

55.15
44,72
49.66
44,64
44.17
43.36

50,33
45,74
50,65
43,40
45,24
44,49

50.35
45.74
50,65
43,40
49,24
44,49

1963.
1964.
19A5.
1966.
1967.
1968.

4.5.29
4?.Ag
57.00
66. BJ?,
77.96
80. 2S

46.20
48.82
57.60
67.72
77.87
79,32

47.39
49.25
57.96
69.72
77,09
79.32

47.91
49,80
58.72
71.09
77.02
78.61

48.65
50.63
59,43
72.37
77.65
76.23

40.18
51,54
60.00
73.87
78.63
78.41

48.01
52. '17
60. S4
75.47
79 .1 4
76.;t2

48.04
53.21
61,03
76,08
79.62
77.39

48,35
53,88
01,86
77,88
79.59
77,90

48.34
54,83
62,90
76.31
60.44
79.20

48,33
55.16
63,64
76,13
80.57
79.98

47.96
55,62
64,92
77,96
81.90
81,24

47,39
49,25
57, V6
69.72
77,09
79.32

46.18
51.54
60.00
73.67
76,63
76,41

48,35
53.88
61.86
77,88
79.59
77.90

47,96
55.62
64, 92
77,96
81,90
81, 2«fr

47.96
55,62
64,92
77,96
61,90
31,24

1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.

81.49

82.52
79.70
73. ft? 72.64

83,29
78.76
72.16

84.26
77.80
71.76

84,65
77.01
70,66

54.76
76.65
69.07

85.07
76.;>1
68.82

64.58
73.32
69.22

64.78
74,10
69.22

84,11
73,17
69.54

83*49
72,54
69.94

82,33
72,60
70,15

83,29
76.76
72.16

84,76
76,65
69,07

64.76
74.10
09.22

82.33
72.6Q
70, IS

62.33
72,60
70, 15

ao.tts

*Th n sorles contains revisions beginning with 1968.
Th o series contains revisions beginning with 1967.

3

112




(AUGUST 19731

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly

Annual

Year

Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.

May

June

July

Aug. Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

II Q

III

Q

IV Q

648, MEW ORDERS, DEFENSE PRODUCTS 1
( B I L L I O N S OP D O L L A R S )

TOTAL FOR P t K I O D

...

,, ,

1.67

1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973,

2.15
1.45
1.71

1.60

1.66

2,52

2.69

1,23

2.83

2,52

2,47

2,31

2,33

2.43
1.90
1.79

1968...

2,79
1.74
1.51

1.86
1,66
1,53

1.61
1.73
1.36

1,90
1.68
1.40

1.81
1.93
1.90

1.30
1,68
1.76

1,69
1.73
1,59

1.79
1.76
1.75

2.09
1.59
1.61

1,73
1,60
1.58

851. R A T I O ,

,,.

7,07
7.37
5.09
5.01

I N V E N T O R I E S TO SALES, M A N U F A C T U R I N G AND T R A D E , T O T A L 2
(FHTIO)

6,56

7,11

5,57
5,09
4,29

5,00
5,34
5.25

5,61
4,95
5,14

23 5b
20 47
19 69

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948. „
1949. „
1950. „

1,38
1.52
1.48

1.41
1.54
1.44

.42
.54
.43

1.41
1.53
1.42

1.42
1,55
1,39

1.42
1,53
1,34

1,42
1.54
1.22

1.43
1,51
1.23

,44
.49
.33

1,46
1.54
1.39

1.48
1.51
1.H6

1.47
1,50
1.39

1,40
1.33
1.45

1,42
1,54
1.36

1.43
1,51
1,26

1,47
1,52
1,41

1,43
1,52
1,38

1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.

.
.
.
.
.
.

1.36
1.63
l.SS
1.65
1.49
1.51

1.43
1.62
1.53
1.62
1.48
1.54

.48
.63
.52
.63
.47
.54

1.54
1.61
1.54
1,60
1,45
1,54

1.56
1.58
1.55
1.62
1.46
1,55

1,59
1.58
1.57
1.60
1.47
1.55

1.64
1.61
1.56
1.60
1.47
1.63

1,62
1.58
1,60
1.60
1.49
1.58

.63
,55
.62
,60
.46
,57

1,62
1.52
1.62
1.58
1.48
1.56

1.62
1.54
1,65
1.54
1.48
1.56

1,64
1.52
1.67
1,51
1,49
1,55

1.43
1.63
1,53
1.63
1,46
1.53

I,b6
1.59
1.55
1,61
1.46
1,55

1.63
1.58
.59
,60
.47
.59

1,63
1.53
1,65
1,54
1.48
1,56

1.56
1,38
1,56
1.60
1,47
1.56

1957.
1958.
1959.
19AO,
1961.

»
.
,
,
,

1.54
1.67
1.49
1.52
1.60
1.51

.56
.68
.46
,55
.57
.50

1.59
1.66
1.47
1.54
1,58
1.50

1,59
1.64
1,46
1,57
1,56
1.51

1.58
1.61
1,48
1,57
1,53
1,53

1,58
1.59
1,49
1,58
1,55
1,53

1,58
1,56
1,54
1,59
1.52
1.52

,61
.56
,54
,58
,52
.52

1,61
1,55
1.54
1.59
1.50
1.52

1.62
1,52
1.55
1.61
1.50
1,50

1.65
1.52
1.52
1.59
1,49
1.53

1.55
1,67
1,49
1,52
1,39
1,50

,59
.64
,47
,56
.56
.51

.59
,57
.52
1.58
1.33
1.52

1.63
1,53
1,54
1,60
1,50
1,52

1.59
1,60
1,51
1.57
1,54
1,51

.1962. .

1.55
1.65
1.51
1.50
1.61
1.50

1963,
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.

.
,
.
.
.
.

1.52
1.47
1.45
1.43
1.56
1.55

1.50
.48
,46
.44
.58
.55

.50
.49
.45
.42
.58
.54

1.49
1.46
1.45
1.45
1.56
1,56

1.50
1,47
1.46
1.47
1.58
1,55

1.49
1.48
1.46
1.47
1.57
1.55

1,47
1,46
1,45
1,50
1,58
1,53

1.50
1.47
1.46
1.49
1.57
1.58

.50
.46
,46
.50
.56
.55

1,49
1.49
1,46
1.51
1.59
1.54

1.51
1.48
1,44
1.54
1,57
1,54

1.48
1.45
1.44
1.55
1.55
1.57

l.t>l

1,46
1.45
1.43
1,57
1.55

,49
.48
.46
,46
,58
,55

1.4V
1.46
1,46
1.50
1.57
1.55

1,49
1.47
1.45
1,53
1,57
1.53

1.50
1,47
1*46
1.48
1.57
1.55

1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.

.
.
.
.

l.ftl

1.61
1,63

1.62
1.61

1.56
1,64
1.61

1.56
1.62
1.60

1.57
1.62
1.59

1,57
1,,62
1,61

1.57
1.63
1.59

.56
.64
,60

1.56
1.66
1*60

1.56
1.70
1,57

1,60
1.66
1,58

1.56
1.61
1.63

1,56
1,63
1,60

1.57
1.63
1,60

1,58
1,67
1,58

1.57
1,64
1,60

5,44
4,29

1.64

852. R A T I O ,

U N F I L L E D ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS,
(RATIO)

MANUFACTURERS'

D U R A B L E GOODS 3
AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D

1953,
1954.
1955.
19F6.

6.19
5.11
4,05
4.43

6,05
5.04
4.03
4,50

6.01
4.89
4.02
4.54

5.87
4.72
3.99
4.51

5.91
4,66
4.01
4.57

6.0?
4.50
3.96
4.52

5,67
4,31
4,12
5,36

5.73
4.38
4.12
4.92

5.55
4.39
4.09
4.74

5.37
4.49
4.23
4.60

5.50
4,28
4,22
4.60

5.46
4,11
4.27
4,55

6.06
5.01
4.03
4.49

5,95
4.63
3,99
4,53

5.65
4,36
4.11
5.01

4,56

5,76
.57
,09
.65

1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.

4.57
3.99
3.51
3.31
3.31
3,03

4.56
3.93
3.45
3.30
3.31
3.04

4.54
3.98
3.47
3.24
3.21
2.92

4.57
3.96
3.39
3.23
3.19
2.91

4.53
3,91
3,29
3,20
3,15
2.92

4,37
3.76
3,28
3,19
3.10
2.94

4,29
3,74
3,42
3,11
3.18
2.95

4,10
3.61
3.79
3,29
3.06
2,83

4.14
3,51
3,83
3.23
3.04
2.86

3.93
3.4B
3.93
3,25
3.03
2.86

3.92
3,50
3.61
3,27
3,02
2,60

4.00
3.49
3,44
3,21
3,01
2.95

4.S6
3.V3
3.48
3.28
3.28
3,00

4.49
3,38
3.32
3.21
3.15
2.92

4.16
3.62
3.66
3.21
3.09
2.68

3,95
3,49
3,73
3,24
3,02
2,87

.29
.73
,55
,?4
3.13
2.92

1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.

2.98
P.B6
3.05
3.21
3.54
3.32

2.94
2.88
3.08
3.23
3.54
3.30

3.03
2.94
.01
.26
.50
,29

3.01
2,90
3.02
3.29
3.55
3,25

3.00
2.94
3,11
3,34
3,52
3,22

2.94
2.99
3.11
3.39
3.53
3.22

2.86
2.97
3.04
3.45
3.56
3.06

2.90
3,03
3,07
3.42
3.44
3,30

2.95
2.99
3,13
3.47
3.51
3,19

2,69
3.04
3.16
3.48
3.56
3.15

2.V4
3.07
3.14
3.52
3.46
3.19

2.89
2.99
3.12
3.51
3.38
3.27

2.*8

3.05
3,23
3, S3
3.30

2.98
2.94
3.08
3.34
3.53
3,23

2.90
3.0C
3,06
3,45
3.50
3, It*

2,91
3,03
3,14
3,50
3,47
3,20

2,94
2,97
3,09
3.36
3.51
3,23

1969.
1970,
1971.
1972.
1973.

3.17
3.12
2.91

3.18
3,09
2.88

.22
.12
2.80

3.25
3.13
2.79

3.30
3.02
2.69

3.28
3,02
2.59

3.28
2.96
2.63

3.24
2.96
2.72

3.20
2.88
2,69

3.13
2,93
2,66

3.15
2.94
2.63

3.13
2,90
2.59

3.19
3.11
2,b6

3,28
3,06
2.69

3.24
2,93
2.66

3,14
2,93
2,63

3.21
3.01
2,72

1

Thi
Thi
Thi

2
3

series contains revisions beginning with 1968.
series contains revisions beginning with 1969.
series contains revisions beginning with 1967.




2,«9

4*24

( A U G U S T 1973)

113

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly
Year

Annual
Jan.

Feb.

Apr.
Mar.

May

740. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS,

June

July

Aug.

Sept

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.1 Q

PRODUCTION WORKERS IN PRIVATE N^NPARM ECONOMY
(INDEX! 1067=100)

II Q

IIIQ

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1950. . .

195S. . .
1957. . .
1958. . .

1964,
1965.
1966.
1967,
196S.
1969.
1970,
1971.
197?.

*

?'7,4

87.9
91.0
94.9
99,3

88,1
91.5
95.0
99,6

104.6

10S.3

105.6

111.4
118,8
127,2

111.6
119.?
128,0

119,9
128,9

$7.5
90,6
93.9
98,5

87.8
90.9
94,2
98,7

J,0:S.6

104.1

110.0
117.4
136,0

UO. 8
U8.0

90.1
93.8
9B.1

3136.7

U2.6

9l!?
95.4

Bb,6
91.9
95.6

89.0
92,3
95.9

89,1
92.6
96.5

89.3
93.0
96,9

89.6
93.2
97.3

90.0
93.5
97,6

100.0
106.3

100.6
106.8

100,9
107,4

101.3
106.0

101.8
108,6

102,3
109.2

102.8
109.8

113.3
12C.6
129.5

113.9
121.4
130.1

114.4
122.5
130.9

115.

1
123,1
131,4

115,9
123.5
131,7

116.6
124,2
131,8

116.9
124,8
133,5

87.6
90.5
94.0
96.4

104.1
U0.7

118.1
126.6

38,1
91,4
95,1
99,6

*
*

fid,

9

92.3
96.0

89,6
93,2
97,3

105,7

100.9
107,4

102,3
109,2

112,6
119.9
128.8

114,5
122.3
130.8

116,5
124.2
132,3

,1973.
740-C. PERCENT CHANGES IN

INDEX OF AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(MONTHLY RATE. PERCENT)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948, . .

1956. . .

1959...

1960. , .

1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
19A8.
1969.
1970.
1971.
197?.
1973.

0.1
0.3
0,5
0.8

0.1
0.6
0,1
0,4
0,5

0.3
0.3
0,3
0.2
0,5

0.1
0.1
0.7
0.6
0,6

0,2
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.4

C.2
0.2
0,4
0.4
C.7

0.3
0.2
0,2
0.6
0,5

0.5
0,4
0,3
0.3
0.6

0,1
0,3
0,6
0,4
0.6

0.2
0,4
0,4
0,5
0,6

0.3
0,2
0.4
0,5
0,6

0.4
0,3
0,3
O.S
0,5

,..
0,3
0*2
0.4
0.6

0,2
0,3
0.4
0.4
0.6

0,3
0.3
0.4
0,4
0.6

0.3
0,3
0.4
0,5
0.6

0.2
0,4
1.0

0.7
0.5
0.6

O.S
0,7
0.4

0.4
0.3
0.6

0.7
0.6
0.7

0.6
0,6
0.5

0,5
0,7
0.5

0,4
0,9
0,6

0,6
0,5
0.4

0.7
0,3
0,2

0,6
0,6
0,1

0.3
0,5
1.3

0.5
0,5
0.7

0,6
0.5
0,6

0,5
0,7
0,5

0,5
0,5
0,5

0 t>
0 6
0 b

7'JQ-C. PERCENT CHANGES IN INDEX OF A V E R a & E HOURLY EARMNGS OVEft 6-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

0
0
0
0

3
3
4
6

AVERAQE FOR PERIOD

1947...

4.0
4.0
5.1
6.8

4.1
4.0
4.7
6.6

3,8
4.3
4.9
7,0

2.7
4,1
4.0
5.2
6.4

3,4
3.9
4.3
5.0
6.4

3.1

196S,
1966,
1967.
1968.

3.6
3.8
4.6
5.6
6.9

4,0
3,9
4,6
5,6
6.7

3.5
4.1
5.3
5.9
6,1

3.!)

6^6

3.2
4.4
4.3
5.0
6.7

3.S
5.3
6.5
6,4

4.0
3.6
4.8
6.8
6,3

4.0
4.1
4.9
6,8

3,1
3.9
4.4
5,1
6,5

3.6
4.0
4.6
5.4
6.G

3.7
3.7
5.1
6,4
6,3

3 9
4 5
5 5
ft 6

19A9.
1970.
1971.
197?.
1973.

6.0
S.7
7.4

6.3
5.6
7.8

6.5
6,5
7.6

7,1
7,0
6.6

6.7
7.8
6.8

6.7
7.3
6.6

7.4
7.4
5.9

7,4
7.3
4.5

6,3
7.1
6.3

6.3
7.6
6.9

6.3
7,0
6.0

6.7
6.8
6.5

6.3
5.9
7,6

6.6
7,4
6.7

7*0
7.3
5,6

6.4
7,1
6,5

6 6
6 9
6 6

•J.7

4.8

adjusted for overtime (In manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.

114




They contain revisions beginning with 1984.

(AUGUST 1973)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly

Quarterly

Year

Annual
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

May

Apr.

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

IIQ

741, REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, PRODUCTION WORKERS IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY
(INDEX: 1967=100)

IIIQ

IV Q

A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD

*,*

63,7
63,6
67,5
69,3
69,0
70,9
74,4
76,6
79,4
62,3

.,,

63,4
S4.5
66,6

6ti,4
90,2
92,2

1964.. «,
1965...
1966,.,
1967., „
1968.. .

94.3
96.2
98.2
99.4

94.6
96.6
97.7
99.6

94. 7
96.9
97.8
99.8

94.8
96.6
96.1

94.9
97.0
98.1

95.0
96.8
9B.4

95.3
97.1

95.8
97.6
98,1

95,7
97,7
93,4

101.4

1969..,,
1970..,,

1971. .. .

101.6

101,7

100.2
102.0

100.1
102.1

100.4
102.4

100^6
102,4

100.4
102,5

100,6
102.3

103.0
103.5
105.5

103.3
103.4
106.0

103.1
103.7
106.2

102.9
103.4
106.5

103,3
103.6
106.7

103.4
103.6
106.7

103,5
104.2
106.9

103.4
104,6
107.3

103,5
104.8
107.5

95,8
98,1
96.4
100, &

95.9
98,0
98,6

96.2
98,0
99,0

94.5
96,6
97,9
99.6

94.9
96,9
96,2

96.0
98,0
98.7

95. b
97.5
96,3

93,7
95,3
97,2
98.4

102,8

101,0
102,9

101,2
103,2

101.6

100,2
102.2

100.5
102,6

101,0
103,0

100,0
102,3

103.9
104,6
107,6

104.0
104,6
107,5

103,5
104,8
108.5

103,1
103.5
105.9

103.2
103.6
106,6

103,5
104,6
lo7,2

103, B

103,5
104,2
106,9

104,7
107,9

1972.. „
1973.. „
741-C. PERCENT CHANGES IN

INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 1-MQNTH SPANS
(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT*

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1945 .

*

1952. .

***

1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
19A8..,
1969...
1970..,
1971...
1972...
1973...

0.0
0.2
0.4
0.2
-0.2

0.0
0.7

0.3
0.4
-0.5

0.2
0.2
0,3
-0,1

0.5

0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.2

0.3
0.2

0.1
-0.1

0.3
0.4
0.3
-0.2
-0.3

0.3

0.1
0.2
0,0

0.1
-0.2

0,1

0.3
0.3
0.3

0,4
0.3
0.2

0.1
0.2
0.0

-0,1

C.3
C.3
-C.i

C.2
C.O
0.1
0.4
C.2

0.5
0,5
-0,2
-0.2

0,1
-0,1

0,6
0.4

-0.1

0.1
0,3
0,2
0,3
0.1
0,0
0.2

0,1
0,4
0,0
0.2
0,0
0,4
-0.2

0,1

0,1
-0,1

0,4
0,2
0,1
0.1
0,2
-0,1

0,3
0,0
0,2
0,2
0.3
-0.5

0,0
0.9

0,2
0.3
0,0
0.1
0,1

0.2
0,1
0.2
0,2
0,1

oil

0.3
0.2

0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
0,2

0.0
0.1
0.5

0,1
0,0
0,2

0,0
0.3
0,3

0,0
0,0
0,3

0,0
0,1
0,3

0.2
-0.1

741-C. PERCENT CHANGES IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOLRLY EARNINGS OVER 6-MQNTH SPANS
(COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE, PE.RCENT)

0,1
0,2
0,2

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

i* .
**,

J965...
1966...
1967...
1968...

2.2
0.0
3.7
2.3

2.3
0.1
2.6
2.2

1.4
0.8
2.8
2.3

2.2
2.0
0.3
2.4
1,9

2.6
2.1
0.8
1.7
1.8

2,1
1.6
1.2
1.7
2,1

1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

0.2

0.7

0,3
0.5
3.7

1.0
1.4
2.7

0.3
2.7
2.5

0,8
2.0
2.6

1964. . .

NOTE:

-0.9

3.6

-0.7

3.7

These series are adjusted




..1
.'.2

.6

i!i
J.I

2.1
2,1
1.5
1,8
1.5

2,4
2.3
1,4
1.6
1.3

1,6
2.2
2,1
1,7
1.2

1.9
0,1
3.1
2.4
1,5

2.5
0,1
2.8
2.3
0,5

1.3
2.3
1.4

0,2
1.9
3.3

0,0
2,6
3.9

0.0
2.1
2.8

0.5
2.7
3.3

2,0
0.3
3,0
2.3
0.4
-0,4

3.7

2,3
1.9
0,6
1.9
1.9

2,2
2,3
1,2
l.b
1.6

2,1
0,6
2.7
2,1
1.1

0,7
2.0
2.6

1,2
2.1
2,3

0,2
2,5
3,3

1,8
1.2
2.2
1,7
O.D

3!o

( A U G U S T 1973)

115

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly

Annual

Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

17. INDEX OF PRICE PtP UNIT OF LABOR COST*
(1967»100)

II Q

III Q

IV Q

AVEHAGE FQp P&KIOD

t

105,0

97,4
98,6
95,2
105.5

96,4
98,4
94,7
103,1

99,3
96,6
95,5
102.6

98,6
96.6
95.0
105.1

96.9
98,7
95,4
95,6

96,5
99,5
93,6
96.2

97,2
99,0
94,4
104.5

96,8
97,3
95,1
103,6

97," 4
96,6
94,6
100.5

99,8
95.6
94.7
92.7
96.3
92.6

98,2
95. a
95,0
92.6
96.2
95,1

96,4
95,1
94.8
93.0
96.7
96.0

98,7
94,6
93,6
92.4
97,3
95.6

97,7
95.2
92,3
91.8
95,6
95,7

97,1
93,7
91,2
92.9
96,6
95,6

106.8
96.6
93.7
91.5
94.7
96*4

102.7
94,7
93.4
91,9
96.1
96,5

96,6
95,5
94,6
92,6
96.4
94.6

97,8
94,5
92.4
92.4
96,5
95,6

101.5
95,4
93,6
92,1
95,9
9iJ,8

96.4
94.6
V7.7
94.0
94.0
93.9

96,6
94.5
96,4
94,0
94,7
94.6

96.6
94,7
94,6
94,2
95,1
94,8

96.7
94.7
94,5
94,0
95,8
95,2

95,4
95,7
93,9
93,9
95,1
95,0

94,0
95,9
93,8
93,5
95,2
95,2

93.6
95.6
96.4
94.1
96.2
95.0

96, b
92,5
96,7
96,8
93.0
95,4

96.1
93.1
97,9
94,4
93.9
94,2

96,6
94, &
95.2
94,1
95,2
94.9

94,3
95,7
94,7
93, fl
95, b
93.1

96.8
97.1
99.6
102.3
99.7
99.4

96.9
97.0
100.3
102.0
99.8
99.6

96.1
97.4
100.8
102.7
99,6
99,6

96,6
96,8
100.7
101.9
99.6
99.1

96,5
96.5
100.7
102.5
99,7
98,2

96.6
96,5
100,4
102,0
100.0
96,0

96,4
97, 6
100,4
100,7
99,6
96,3

95,9
97,7
101,5
101,0
100,2
97,4

95.4
97,0
96,6
101,9
99.8
99.8

96,8
97,1
99.6
101.9
99.9
99,7

96.4
96,9
100,7
102,4
99,7
99.0

96,4
97.3
100,8
101,2
100,0
97,9

96,2
97,1
100,0
101,9
9V, 9
99,1

98.6
V7.3
97.4

98. R
97.3
97.6

98,6
96,4
97.3

96.9
96.8
97.1

93,9
95,7
96,2

98.8
96,2
97.9

96,5
96,3
97,8

96,3
97,0
97,4

99.7
97,2
96.6

96,9
97.1
97,4

98*9
96,3
97,5

96, b
96,5
97,7

99,0
96,8
97,3

1947...
1948...
1949...
19*50...

96,4
99,5
06.1
05.3

96.4
96,5
94,6
95.7

97.9
98.1
95.4
96.4

97.5
98.7
94.3
97.3

96.1
99.6
93.0
97.7

9?. 6
100,3
93.4
99.6

96.6
99.5
93,3
102,4

1951..,
195?...
1953...
1934...
19SS...
1956...

107.5
97.1
03.9
91.5
94.5
96,4

106.9
96,9
93,8
91.5
94.4
96.5

105.9
96.3
93, D
91,4
95.3
96.?

103.7
95.7
93.0
91.4
95.9
96.8

102.9
94.4
94.0
92.1
96,0
96.9

1C1.4
9*,,!
93,2
92.1
96.3
9?. 7

1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961..,
1962...

96.3
93.3
96.1
97.8
93.1
95.3

97.1
92,2
97,0
96,8
92.8
95,6

96.9
92,1
97.0
95.9
93.?
93.4

96.1
91,7
98,1
93.1
93.9
94.5

95.9
92,9
96.0
94.2
93,7
94,3

1963...
1964...
1968...
1966...
J967...
1968...

95.1
97.7
96.8
102. 0
100,3
100,0

95.6
96.9
98.5
101.5
100.0
100.0

95.6
96.5
99,0
102,2
99,2
99.5

96.7
97,2
99,4
101.3
100.2
100.1

1969...
1970...
1971...
197?...
1973,,.

98,9
96. B
96.4

100.3
97,4
96.6

99.9
97.3
96.8

99.1
96.8
97.1

97,6
96,9

94, a

52, PERSONAL INCOME 2
(ANNUAL HATE, BILLIONS OK DOLLARS)

219.8

173,7
172,6
187,7
205.5
209.1
224.9

172.1
174.5
164,9
206,5
208,1
220.2

173.1
175.9
185.3
207.8
207.6
220.7

.
.
.
.
.
.

173.4
170.3
188.1
202.5

173.7
169,6
187.9
202,0

216.9

19M, .

191S.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.

?oa.§

gos.o

96.0
94, Q
96,1
94,6
V4,4
94,9

AVERAGE FOR PEKIOO

212.0
205.6
221,8

175,1
182.4
168,4
212.6
204.0
226.1

170.8
163,7
189,1
215.2
205.5
230.5

163,3
180,3
204.0
215,4
208.7
232.7

166.7
184,7
196.1
216.3
205,0
235,8

169,4
165,2
196,9
215,0
207,5
237,9

168.1
187.4
199,3
212,3
208,7
243,3

173.6
170.6
167.9
203,3
206.6
220,5

173.5
176,2
186,1
206,8
207,1
220.9

169.7
182,2
193,8
214,5
206,1
229,7

166,1
165,8
197,4
214.5
207,1
239.0

171.1
176,7
191,3
210,2
207 , 2
227,6

175.2
178.1

ibe.z

1952.
1953,
1954.
19!55,
1956.

.
.
.
.
.

?44.§
261,9
282,6
2fi7,7
298.2
323.0

247.2
265.7
284.7
288,7
300,0
325.0

249.8
266.4
287.5
287.7
302.4
326.?

252.7
265.8
287.8
286.6
305.5
329.3

2b4.1
266.8
289.1
267,5
308,1
329.8

25?-. 9
270.4
290.3
287.7
309.2
331.9

255,5
269,4
269,8
266,2
313,9
331,0

256.4
276.9
289.2
269.6
314,3
335,6

256,9
279,7
289,1
291,6
316,5
337,9

261.9
260,6
290,9
293,3
317,9
341,4

262,9
280,1
289,1
296,1
320,4
341,4

263,9
262.1
266.1
296.9
322.5
343.3

247,1
264,7
285.0
266,0
300,2
324,7

254.3
268,4
269,1
287,2
307,6
330,3

257.6
275,4
2fl9,4
289,6
314, V
334, tt

262, V
261,0
269,4
295,4
320,3
342,0

255.6
272.5
266.2
290.1
310.9
333,0

1957.
1938.
1959.
19*0.
A961.
196?.

.
.
.
.
.
.

343.2
393.6
373,5
396,4
404,8
430,7

346.4
353.5
375,8
396.5
405,5
433,7

347,8
355.3
378.6
396.9
409,5
437.2

348,?
354,6
381,6
400.2
409.6
439.8

349,8
355.8
364.0
401.7
412.2
440.6

352.4
357.6
365,6
401,9
415,8
441.8

353.9
364.0
366.0
402.8
419.6
443.4

355.5
363.8
3P3.4
403-.3
416,6
444.6

354.5
365.7
383,9
403,8
419,6
447,0

354,4
366.4
385.0
404,6
424.3
447,9

354,6
370,8
389,0
403,8
428,6
450.4

353.7
372.6
395.3
401.3
431,1
452.6

345,8
354,2
376,0
396.6
406.6
433.9

350,2
356.0
363.6
401.3
412,5
440,6

3s4.7
364,5
384.5
403,3
4l9,4
445.0

354,3
369,9
389,7
403,3
426,0
450,3

351,1
361,2
363,5
401,0
416,6
44E.6

1963.
1964.
196S,
1966.
1967.
1968.

.
.
,
.
.
.

457.6
4*2.4
518.8
565.3
612, g
656.1

455,7
484,6
519.4
570.8
613.7
663,&

457.6
486.8
382.9
574,9
616,8
672,1

456.4
490.1
525.9
577,6
618,7
673,0

461.2
493.0
531.1
579,6
621.2
661.3

464.2
495.0
535.5
584,7
626.5
6b7.4

465,6
496.4
539.0
588.4
630,7
692.9

467,8
502,6
541,9
593.1
635.5
697.5

470,0
505,3
557.2
597,0
637,9
703.1

473.4
506,0
553,5
601,6
639,9
708,0

474,9
509,8
556,3
605,6
646,1
712,7

479.1
515.6
563.3
607,8
652,7
717,2

457.0
484,6
520.4
570*3
614.2
664.0

461.3
492,7
530.8
560,7
622.1
661,2

467,6
5o2.1
546.1
592,9
634,7
697,6

475.6
510,5
S58.4
6Qb,0
646,3
7i2.6

465,5
497,5
536,9
567,2
629,3
080,9

1969.
1970.
1971.
197?,
1973,

.
.
.
.
.

7?0,6
781.1
836.1

725.8
785,2
839,4

733.0
791.1
644.5

738.1
810.7
849.0

743.1
806.1
654.4

748.5
806.2
67?. 1

754,1
810.9
86&, 0

759.8
616.2
871.4

764.8
623.3
a74,2

769,8
819.9
677.2

773,6
821,4
663,3

779.4
827.4
892,6

726.5
785.8
840.0

743,3
607.7
859,5

759,o
6l6,6
670,2

774,3
622,9
664,4

750,9
606,3
663,5

43,6
43,4

53. WAGE AND SALARY INCOME IN MINING. MANUFACTURING, AND CONSTRUCTION 2
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE FOR PtRIOD

1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.

.
,
.
.
.
.

"9,1
36,9
49,2
56.4
58.2
54.9

49.0
36.2
49.5
56,2
57.7
54.6

49.0
40.2
50.0
36.9
56.4
56.7

48.1
41.3
50.1
55.9
55,6
58.2

47.1
42.0
50.7
57.1
55.2
59.8

46,5
43.8
51.1
57.9
5U.2
60.9

45.1
44,2
50.9
56.6
54,3
62.7

41.7
46,0
51,5
59,7
53,8
64.7

36,7
46.9
52,6
59,4
54,7
65,0

36.4
47,3
53,3
59.4
52,4
67,3

36,8
47,8
54,0
59,6
53,0
68,3

37.1
48,7
55,2
56,9
54.0
69,?

49. 0
37.8
49.6
56.5
57.4
55,4

47.2
42.4
50,6
57,0
55,0
59,6

41,2
45,7
51,7
59.3
54, 3
64,1

36.8
47,9
5^,2
59,3
53,1
68,3

56,0
55,0
61, V

1951.
19S3.
19*53.
19S4.
1955.
1956.

.
.
.
.
.
,

69,9
76,3
85,6
83,3
6S. 7
94,6

71.0
76,9
86.7
83.5
86.6
95,0

72,2
77.4
87.6
83.1
87.9
95.6

73.5
76.5
87.8
82.5
88,7
97.2

73.4
77.2
8P.O
82.6
90.1
96.6

73.9
76,4
87.6
8?. 5
90.4
97,3

73.9
73.8
88.1
61.9
91,2
95.8

73.7
79.3
87.6
61.9
91,1
96.4

74.0
62. J
86,2
81.6
91,9
99.6

73.7
83.2
66.5
63. C
92,9
101.0

74,5
84.4
85,2
64,6
94,3
100,6

75,6
65,7
64,4
65,2
V4.5
102,3

71,0
76.9
66.7
83,3
86,7
95.1

73,6
76,7
87.8
82.6
69.7
97,0

73,9
78,5
67.3
81.6
91,4
97.9

74,7
84,4,
65,4
64,3
93,9
101,4

73.3
79,1
66,6
63,0
90,4
97,9

1957.
I9?a.
1959,
1960.
1961.
1963.

.
.
.
.
.
.

101. g
97.6
103,2
111.2
106,4
114.3

102.4
95,5
104.1
111.5
106.1
115.5

102,3
95.3
105,7
111,0
106,6
116. 7

101,9
94.0
107,2
111.2
107.6
118.3

101.4
93.9
108.4
111.6
106.6
118.0

10?. 1
95.0
106.9
110.9
110,5
118.0

102.0
96,0
106.3
110.6
110.9
116.6

102,3
97,5
105,7
109.7
111,5
118,7

101.3
98,6
105,5
108(6
110.2
119,5

100.6
98.1
105,0
108,8
113.0
118.9

100,1
101,7
106,1
107,4
114,8
119,7

98.6
102*2
109.8
104,7
115,2
119,7

102.1
96,1
104,3
111.2
106,4
115.5

101. §
94,3
108,2
111.2
108.9
118,1

101.9
97,4
106.3
109,7
HO. 9
UV.U

99,8
100,7
107,0
107,0
114,3
119,4

101,4
97,1
106,5
109,6
110.1
116.0

1961.
1964,
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.

.
.
.
.
.
.

120.0
125.8
136.5
149,0
162, a
169,0

119,9
128.0
138.0
151.3
160.8
172.8

120.6
128.5
138,7
152,8
160.8
174,0

120.7
129.7
138.3
154.4
161,2
173.9

122.2
130.1
140.1
155.1
161,0
177.3

123.0
130.6
141.0
157.0
162.3
176.2

123,5
131,8
141,6
157,4
163,6
179,1

123,5
133.2
142.7
158.9
165.5
179.9

124,6
134,2
143,4
159.4
165,1
182.0

125,3
132,7
145.3
160.7
165,1
183,7

125,7
134.7
146,9
161,4
166,4
185.1

126.6
136.8
143.4
161.6
169,9
187,0

120.2
127,4
137.7
151,0
161.3
172.2

122.0
130.1
139,8
Ibb.S
161,5
176.5

123, V
133.1
142.6
158.6
164,7
160,3

123.9
134.7
146, V
161,3
167,6
165,3

123,0
131.3
141,7
156,6
163,6
176,6

1969.
1970.
1971.
197?.
1973.

.
,
,
.
.

187,0
197.9
198.5

187.7
197,5
198,6

190.5
199.0
199.3

191.9
198.3
200.5

193.0
197.0
202.3

194.9
197.9
202.6

195.7
199.4
203,1

196.6
199.7
203.2

198.2
199.4
204,0

198,9
193.6
205,0

196.4
193,1
206,1

200.0
196,9
209.6

186.4
198.1
198.6

193,3
197.7
201,8

196.9
199,5
203,4

199,1
194,6
206, «

194. H
197,5
202,7

51. &

'This oeriofi eon tain a revisions bo (j Inning with 1969.
°This oorion contains revisions beginning with 1970.

116




(AUGUST 1973)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly

Year

Annual
Jan.'

Feb.
62

78.4

73,9
77.8
81.1
77.6

si.l

82.2

38.4
09,8
93.8
90.7
91.4

.98.4

83.0
86.7
90.3
93,7
89.9
92.3

84,7
88,8
90.6
93.9
89.5
92.4

35.2
90.0
90.2
93,3
89.4
92.8

fll.2

89.9
93,6
90.9
91.7

96.3

96,6

101.6

102,2

100.9

97.3
97.8

97.5
99.0

96.6
99.6

96.7

101.9

102.3

101.8

100.8

99.4

98.9

98.9

99.9

100.5
100.5
100.1

99.2
97.1
56,6
95.9
99.4

96,4
97.8
96.9
96,8
99.7

96.2
98.0
96.4
96.3

96.9
97,3
96.3
97.0
99,3

97,2
97,3
96.4
96,7
99.9

102.1

102.8

106.4
113.2
116.2

107.1

95.6

95.2

100.4

101.3

98.1
96.8

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

iQ

INDEX OF LABOR COST PER UNIT OF OUTPUT, T O T A L MANUFACTURING 1
(1967=100)

73.1
78.3
80.7
77.2

1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...

1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

May

72,8
78.4
80.6
77.8

72.1
77.9

1963...
1964...
196.5...
19*6...
1967...
1968...

Apr.

72.6
77.9
81.5
78.4

1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...

1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1963...

Mar.

95.4

101.4

101.9

100,4
103.6

105.5
112,6
116,1

104.6
111.8
116.2

105.3
112.2
116.4

U3.0

116.5

74.2
77.8
80.3
76.5

an.l
90,1
90.9
9?.. 8
89.4
93.8
9ft, 1
9?,1
97.0
IOC. 9

100,0
IOC. 4
97.5
97.4
9^,2
97.1

II Q

IIIQ

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

74.0
79.0
80.1
76.2

74.2
80.4
79,0
76,0

75,6
80,7
76.6
77.0

75,4
80,3
78.8
79.4

75,5
61,6
78,0
80.7

77,0
61,2
78,5
80,9

72.5
76,1
81.1
76.2

73,7
78,0
80,7
77,1

74,6
60,0
79,2
76,4

76.0
81,0
76,4
80,3

74,2
79,3
79,9
76,0

87,1
68,8
90,4
92.4
69.8
96,9

88.1
89,0
90.0
92.7
90.3
95.0

87,7
89,7
90,4
92,0
90,5
94.7

87,4
89.7
91.2
92,3
90.1
95,4

66,1
38.8
92,3
93,0
91,7
95,6

83.7
69.9
93,6
92.1
90.9
95.8

62.1
88.5
90,0
93.7
90.5
91.6

35,3
89,6
90,6
93.3
89,4
93,0

87,6
89,2
90.3
92,4
90,2
95,5

68,1

ti5,6

89, b
92,4
92,3
90,9
95,6

69,2
90,6
93,0
90,3
94,0

97,5
97,9

99,3
96,0

95.4

96.3

96, b

100,7

100,6
101.3

99,8
96,5
97,9

101,1

100,6
100,8

97.6
97.9

96,6

98,9
98,1
99,7

99.8
98,4

96,4
99.3
98.3

96.6
99.0

96.4
99,1

100.2
100.6

100,6

100.0
100.5

99.4
99.9

99,0
99.6

9S,2
99,6

98.8
99,4

96,8
99,2

98.1
99,3

93,5
97,3
95,6
96.7

97,8
97,8
96,0
97.8

97,6
96,2
96,0
97,3

97.7
98.4
96.5
97.6

98.1
97.1
96,8
96,8

96,6
97,3
96,2
98,5

100.6

102.0
99.1

100,4
100.4
100,1

96,6
97,6
96.6
96,3
99,6

97.2
97,3
96.3
96,9
99,8

100.1
102.9

100.5
103,3

100,3
103.6

100.7
104.9

100,4
105,3

100,8
105,2

100,6
106,5

102.0

107,4
113.1
116.5

107.6
114.5
117,5

107.9
114.4
118.7

106,1
115,9
116.9

108,8
115,6
117.1

109,7
115,7
117,3

110.2
114,8
118.3

105.1
112.2
116.2

3
06. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DUF1ABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES--35 INDUSTRIES
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SF'ANS >

99,1

99, S
100,6

96. 6

100,9

100,0
100,0

98,9
99,7

98,6
99,3

96.0

98,1
97,6
96.5
98,3

97, B
95,9
97.3

99,6
9b,0
97,6

96,397,2

102,6

100.5
103,9

100.6
105,7

100.2
103,5

107.0
113,1
116,4

107,9
114, V
117,7

109,6
115,4
117,6

107,4
113,9
117,0

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1949...
1950...

66J7

52.4
57.1

38.1
57.1

31.0
76.2

38.1
81.0

57.1
52.4

28,6
95.2

66.7
83.3

85,7
31.0

19,0
33.3

63,3
57,1

52.4
65.7

60 .* 3

42,1
69.9

60,3
69.6

51,6
56,7

1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...

73.8
40.5
66.7
42.9
77.1
31.4

31.0
57.1
26.6
65,7
67.1
26.6

52.4
45.2
36.6
31,4
72.9
57.1

47.6
61.9
68.6
51.4
35.7
67.1

52.4
19.0
27.1
44.3
57.1
51.4

26.6
61.9
14.3
65.7
H7,l
50,0

47.6
66.7
77,1
77.1
45.7
25.7

36.1
26.6
20.0
56,6
65.7
66.6

23,6
66,7
47,1
57,1
40,0
40,0

81.0
64,3
32,9
58.6
68,6
75,7

38,1
38.1
45.7
48.6
58.6
80,0

33.3
57.1
60,0
71.4
45.7
38.6

52,4
47,6
44.6
46.7
72.4
39.0

42.9
47.6
36,7
53,8
60.0
56,2

36,5
54,0
48.1
64,3
50,5
44,8

50, B
53,2
46,2
59.5
57,6
64,6

45,6
50,6
43,9
56.1
60,1
51,2

1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...

38.6
54.3
71,4
25.7
34.3
62.9

60.0
42.9
81.4
42.9
57.1
52.9

36.6
45.7
67.1
42.9
68.6
45,7

20.0
57.1
38.6
62.9
62.9
45,7

60.0
68.6
55.7
50,0
70.0
55,7

30.0
57.1
45,7
38.6
6P.6
45.7

41.4
62.9
45.7
42.9
42,9
61.4

57,1
66.6
18,6
51,4
71,4
51,4

52,9
80.0
74.3
43,6
55.7
57.1

35,7
45.7
47,1
32,9
55,7
60,0

44,3
78,6
34,3
45,7
57,1
55,7

14.3
40,0
70,0
57.1
42.9
40.0

45.7
47.6
73.3
37,2
53.3
53.6

43,3
60.9
46,7
50,9
67,2
49.0

50,5
70,5
46,2
47,6
56.7
56,6

31,4
54,6
50,5
45,2
51,9
51,9

42,7
58.5
54,2
45.1
57,3
32,6

1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967.,.
1968...

54.3
75,7
54.3
57.1
48.6
45.7

70.0
31.4
40.0
57,1
48.6
50,0

45.7
68.6
68.6
77.1
40.0
48.6

60.0
54.3
60.0
40.0
54.3
47.1

62.9
61.4
45.7
57.1
55.7
51.4

50.0
54.3
64.3
54.3
71.4
46,6

62.9
68.6
70,0
50,0
50,0
48.6

45.7
31,4
50.0
65.7
74,3
51,4

57,1
64.3
62.9
48,6
28,6
71,4

68.6
47.1
68.6
40.0
45.7
65,7

37,1
45,7
77,1
34,3
57,1
52,9

57,1
55,7
74.3
55.7
66,6
55,7

56.7
56.6
54.3
63.8
45.7
48,1

57.6
56,7
56,7
50,5
60,5
49,0

55,2
54.6
61,0
54,6
51,0
57,1

54,3
49.5
73,3
43,3
57,1
56,1

56.0
54,9
61,3
53,1
53,6
53.1

1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

62.9
37,1
44.3

64.3
57.1
61.4

52,9
55.7
51.4

51.4
48.6
57.1

51,4
56.6
55.7

44.3
60.0
65.7

51.4
60.0
51.4

40.0
37.1
57.1

74,3
62.9
41.4

55,7
20,0
60,0

34,3
51,4
64,3

48.6
57,1
58.6

60.0
50.0
52.4

49,0
55,7
59.5

55,2
53,3
50,0

46,2
61.0

52,6
50,5
55.7

2
D6. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DUPABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES— 35 INDUSTRIES
(PERCENT RISING OVFR 9-MONTH SPANS)

52.4

1949. * .
100.0

100,0

100.0

66,7
95,2

57.1
95.2

90.5
65.7

95 \2

28,6
47,6
27,1
91,4
66,6
41,4

38,1
66.7
22.9
88.6
71.4
51.4

53.9
47.6
55.6
44.8
89.5
55.7

28,6
85,7
34,3
25.7
82,9
75.7

26.6
90,0
22.9
40,0
72,9

25.7
91,4
34.3
51.4

80, C

81,4
62,9
85.7
42.9
71.4
85.7

66.6
76,6
94,3
37.1
71,4
65,7

64,3
72,9
94,3
30,0
62,9
65,7

22.9
66,6
80.0

28,6
57.1
77.1

34.3
54,3
85,7

85,7
90.5

90.5

95.2

100.0

1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...

57.1
33.3
66.7
34,3
94.3
64.3

57.1
66.7
47.6
44.3
85.7
66,6

47.6
42.9
52.4
55,7
88.6
34.3

50.0
26.2
65.7
94.3
40.0

65.7
68.6
21.4

91.4
60.0
51.4

65.7
74.3
66.6

94,3
71,4
64.3

66.6
87.1
36.6

65.7
11.4
94.3
68,6
54.3

1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...

37.1
31.4
94.3
45.7
54.3
58.6

45,7
51.4
94,3
41,4
57.1
58.6

25.7
60.0
85.7
37.1
65.7
51.4

17.1
74.3
71.4
51.4
80.0
51.4

16.6
60.0
82.9
42.9
77.1
54.3

14.3
6F.6
71.4

20.0
91,4
42.9
45.7
77.1
50,0

17,1
82.9
37,1
50.0
82.9
54.3

25.7
91,4
37,1
34,3
82,9
62,9

1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...

R2.9
«2.9
78.6
94.3
45.7
54.3

80.0
82.9
91.4
91.4
42.9
80.0

81.4
80,0
85.7
84,3
40.0
68.6

68,6
85.7
82.9
77.1
68.6
62.9

74.3
65.7
68.6
72.9
57.1
64.3

77.1

56.6
74.3
94.3
48.6
74.3
82,9

72,9
82,9
82.9
28,6
91.4
80,0

1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

77.1
41.4
60.0

68.6
25.7
62.9

62.9
35.7
74.3

61.4
37.1
65.7

68.6
40.0
54.3

Stt.3

57.1
47.1
71.4

48,6
51.4
71.4

1
2

9.5
50.0

This series contains revisions beginning with 1969.
This series contains revisions beginning with 1966.




9.5
57.1

3". 3
91.4
57.1

75. 7

ao.o
71,4
64.3
82.9

45,7
65,7

23.8
38,1

9.5
52.4

A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD

95,2
95,2

95,2

100,0

1950...

4,8
52,4

9,5

42, a

641?

90, b

73,0
96,8

90,5

95^6

23,0
44,4
25,7
74,3
87,6
37,6

12,7
47,6

25,4
66,7

P2.V
77,6
57.2

91,4
69,5
49.0

26.6
51,6
27,3
73.3
61,1
49,9

72.9

36.2
47.6
91,4
41.4
59.0
56.2

16,7
61.0
75.2
42.9
82.6
54.3

20,9
88,6
39.0
43.3
81.0
55.7

27.6
89,0
30.5
39,0
79,1
76,2

71.4
77.1
94.3
37.1
66.6
U8.6

81.4
81.9
85,2
90,0
42,9
67,6

73.3
62,4
63.8
73,8
63,3
70,0

71.0
80,0
87,6
40,0
79.0
82,9

74,8
76,2
94,3
34,7
67,6
86,7

31.9
52.9
91.4

69.5
34.3
65.7

61.4
40,9
61.9

42,9
55,7
74,3

31.6
54.8
84,7

e)1.4

loolo

7,0

20, b

2b*,4
76.5

5V. 0
41.7
75,5
60,6
7b.l
80,1

87, tJ
59.6
63.2
76,6

bl.4
40,4
71.7

(AUGUST 1973)

117

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Quarterly
Annual

Year
IQ

IIQ

III Q

1991.
1953,
1953.
1954.
19*5,
1996.
1957.
1958.
1939.
I960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1969.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.

p

.
(

...

..
.
20.1
21.1
22.2
1P.1
30.3

..
.
15.5
20.2
22,7
18,5
24.9

1945,
1946,
1947,
1946,
1949,
1950,

21.3
16. fl

19.7
26.5
27.7

19.3
16.6
21.3
20.9
27.4
26.0

20.7
2C.7
16.6
23.5
26.3
27.4

21,6
19.6
20,4
20,6
27,0
27,2

1951,
1952,
1953.
1954,
1955,
1956,

27.6
19.8
2B.O
83.9
24.4
30. 7

26,5
20.2
30.8
27,8
26.4
30.9

26,0
22.8
27.9
25.5
27.8
31,5

23.7
2*. 2
27.0
2^.5
30.1
31.8

26,0
22,3
28.5
26.7
27.2
31.2

1957,
1958.
1959,
1960,
1961,
1962,

3,1.1
37.7
44 . 5
4°). 8
43.7
47.1

32.8
38.3
45,7
50.0
45.9
48.1

33.5
39,1
46,3
50.7
46,?.
47,4

34.9
36,8
49.3
4P.9
4ft. 5

33.1
38.4
46.5
49.9
46.6
47.6

1963,
1964,
1965,
1966,
1967,
1966,

47.4
40.8
43.8

46.6
39.5
47.1

43.2
39.9
49.0

4?.l
36.7
50.6

44.8
39.3
47.6

1969,
1970,
1971,
1972,
1973,

a?,.s

20.1
If!. 9

§

29.?,

4

•
t
t
t

,
,
.
(

,
t

•
t
t
t
t

20.9
81.7
IM
'
20,1
27.2

21. e

49.3

•

23. RATIO OF PROFITS (AFTER TAXES) TO INCOME ORIGINATING,
CORPORATE, ALL INDUSTRIES (PERCENT)

1945.
1946.
1947,
1946.
1949.
19SO.

...
...
,•,
...
,, *
..
.

..
.
12!?
20,0
lfl.0
15.7
15.0

AVERAGE

17.9
18.5
14.3
16.9

..
.
2t!l
lfl.0
16.9
15.2
19.8

18.3
17.8
15,0
17.7

1945,
1946.
1947,
1946,
1949,
1950.

is!i

..
.

le^B

tt
f
f
(
f

•
(
f
t
t
t

•
t
t
t
t

f

,
§
t
§
(

,
•

(

,
t
t

30,
23,
25,
21.
29,7
29,7

25,7
22.0
25.1
22,4
30,0
30,0

23,1
21.8
24.3
23.8
30.7
27,6

24.5
24,0
18. 8
25,5
31.3
28,6

26,0
22,6
23.4
23,3
30.4
29,0

26,6
19,9
27,6
28,2
23,6
29,4

27.2
20,3
30.3
27.1
25.6
29.6

26.4
22.8
27,3
24,7
26,8
30,2

23.9
26.0
26,5
23.7
26.
30.

26,5
22,2
27.9
25.9
26.2
29,9

29.6
35.6
41.4
45,6
40,4
40,5

31,2
35.9
42,3
45,4
40,4
41.0

31,8
36,7
42,6
45.6
40.3
40.0

33,
36,
45.
43.
42.
40,

31.4
36,1
43,0
45,1
40,8
40,5

39,2
32.0
32,7

38.1
30.7
34,8

34.8
30.7
35.8

33,5
27.8
37,0

36.4
30.3
35,1

26,4
23.0
25,6
23.9
32.7
34,8

22,9
21.6
25,5
25,6
33.5
35,4

21,3
21,9
25,7
26,8
34.5
33,7

23,0
24.0
21.6
28.9
35.7
3b.Q

23.4
22,6
24,6
26,3
34,1
34,7

35,7
30,0
38,5
40.5
36,4
45,9

35,1
30,3
41,6
39,2
45,8

35,1
33.3
38,7
36.7
40,7
46.4

33.7
37,3
38,4
35.6
42,9
46,?

34,9
32,7
39,4
30.0
39.8
46.2

»

46.0
53.5
61,0
67,2
66.2
70,0

48,1
54,2
62,2
66,3
66.7
71.2

46.6
55.3
63,0
69.7
67,7
70.6

50.6
54.9
66.0
69,4
72.2
72,5

46,4
54,5
63,0
66,6
68,2
71,1

f
(

73,3
70,3
77,3

73,8
70.2
61,6

71.5
71.7
64,7

71.2
70.0
67,7

72,4
70,5
U2*9

,
,

1951,
1V52.
1953,
1954,
1955,
1956,

1957.
1958.
1959.
I960.
1961.
1962.

..
.
...
*..
* *»
,• >
..
.

12.3
11.8
11.4
9.7

11.5
10.4
11.5
10.2
10.6
11.2

10,8
11.5
11,0
9.9
11.2
11.1

11.6
10.2
11.7
10.6
10.4
11*2

1957,
1956,
1959.
1960.
1961,
1962,

§
(
t
f
(

11.3

11.7
9.5
12.6
10.9
10,3
11.1

1961.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
196B.

...
..,
...
.*.
...
..
.

10.8
IS,?,
13.3
13.6
11.8
11.3

11.3
12.1
13.4
13.3
11.8
11.1

11.3
12.1
13.3
13,3
11.5
10.7

11.7
11.9
13.9
12.6
11.9
10,7

11.3
12.1
13.5
13.2
11.6
11.0

1963,
1964,
1965,
1966,
1967,
1966,

t

1969.
1970.
1971.
1972,
1973,

..
.
*..
,. .
.* *
..
.

10.3
8.2
8.5

9.9
8.0
8,8

8.9
7.9
9,3

6.7
7.3
9.1

9.4
7.8
8.9

196V,
1970,
1971,
1972,
1973,

t
t
t
t
t

,

,
,
t
f
(

..
.
4, *

39,1

t

•
57 . FINAL SALES
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

AVERAGE

10.6
14,6
19,6
22,6
19.2
24.6

§
§

13.2
11.6
11.2
11.4
13.6
12.6


118


15,7
25.5
29.6
30.7
24,4
32.1

** ,

19.9
21,6
20,5
19,2

,

12.3
11.7
9.5
!.!
?.
13.7
12,5

1949, . .
..
.
.
1946. t ,
..,
..
.
**,
1947, , t
26.5
33.2
29.9
1948. , ,
31.7
.11.8
33.8
1949. . .
28.3
26.6
25.1
1950, » *
31.2
36.7
26.4
1931. tt
26.5
33.1
26.6
195?. • .
26.1
26.4
ae . ?.
1953. 14
30.8
30,4
30.3
19*4. , ,
38.3
30.2
31,7
1955. , .
39.?
39.7
39,0
1956. ••
36.5
36.2
38.8
1957. t t
35.7
37.1
36.0
1958. t ,
33.2
30.2
30.4
1959, , ,
37.9
37.8
40.9
,1960.
39,4
3fl,l
35.6
39,2
1961. t *
3? . 5
37.9
196?. ••
44.6
44.1
44.0
1963. t t
•'44.1
46,6
46.0
1964, , .
52.2
51.0
51.3
1965. , ,
57.1
56.6
58.0
1966. , .
61.8
63.0
62.3
1967. . ,
58,8
59.2
59,0
1968. ••
59.9
60,9
60.3
1969, , t
60.8
57,7
60.4
1970. , ,
54.8
53. 2
54.4
1971. , ,
61.2
57,0
59.6
,t
1972.
1973, ••
NOTE: Those aerloo eontain revioiouQ beginning with 1970.

t•»
.*i
29,9
29.2
23.8
38.3

..
.
•i *
20.6
22,2
16.9
29,9

11.7
11.2
11.7
11.7
13,6
12.1

35, NET CASH FLOW, CORPORATE, IN CONSTANT (1958) DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

31,6
31,0
26,
24.

».,
**,
27,9
3C.5
24,3
35,7

..
.
,*.
18,7
22,9
19.3
27,4

13.1
11.4
11.6
11.2
13.4
13.0

9.3

AVERAGE

..
.
** •
29.0
32.1
23.1
29.7

,*.
..
.
19,0
23,5
16.3
22.8

§(

15.9
11.9
11.9
10.8
1.1.6
1?.9

1953,
195*1,
19BS.
1956.

IV Q

•

19B1. ..,
•. •
«,«
.• •
>*,
..
.

1952.

II! Q

34, NET CASH FLOW, CORPORATE, IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL KATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

.*.
19.0
17.3
17,9
14,9
19.0

..
.

IIQ

16, CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES IN CONSTANT (1958) DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, b ILL IONS OF DOLLARS)

.•.
17.8
19.4
23.0
18.4
27.6

•
,
.
.

AVERAGE

..
.
13.6
19.6
23.4
17.7
22.6

10.4
20.7

Annual
IQ

IV Q

16. CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

1945.
1946.
1947,
1948.
1949.
1950.

Year

AVERAGE

*,,
31.1
30.4
26.0
3£.9

21.2
25,9
30.4
31.9
26.5
33.3

1945,
1946,
1947.
1948,
1949,
1950,

190.6
223.1
244,6
258,5
263.6

195,2
228.6
250.4
260,5
270,6

206.1
234.6
256,4
258.8
288.2

?14.b
240.7
259,6
260,2
269,4

202 ,' 1
231, a
2b2.9
259,6
276,0

2S.3
26.8
i5,8
33.9
40.3
36.9

29.1
27.4
29,3
31.0
39,3
37,6

1951,
1952,
1953,
1954,
1955.
1956,

307,5
334.3
361,7
363.2
381,6
404,5

310,6
341,5
364,4
363,1
366,3
411.9

322.5
341.4
365.1
366.9
396.4
416,5

331.6
352,3
365.3
372.2
401.7
425.1

316,1
342,4
364,1
366,4
392.0
414,5

33,8
37,0
37.5
34.8
Hl.l
45,0

35.6
32.7
38.5
37.0
38.4
44.4

1957,
1958,
1959,
1960,
1961,
1962.

434,8
440.1
470,1
493.0
507.0
541.1

437.5
443.4
477.8
500.7
512,8
551.1

443.1
451.3
463,6
501.0
520,4
559,2

443, &
460.3
484,1
505.7
532.3
565,6

439,6
448, ti
476,9
500,2
516,1
bb4,3

4*. 4
al.7
60.9
6?. 2
62.6
bO.9

46.3
51.6
58.6
62.3
59.9
60.5

1963,
1964,
1965.
1966,
1967.
1966,

572.7
612.9
6til.9
7^6.2
764,8
8.11,2

579.4
621.9
6b6.6
727.1
780,0
847,6

586,8
634.1
682,1
744.0
792,2
667.5

597.7
637,4
700,3
750,8
805.9
882,1

5«4»6
626,6
675.3
735,1
765,7
657,1

56,7
SJ.2
63.7

58.9
54.2
60.4

1969,
1970,
1971,
1972,
1973.

900.0
9S6.4
1020,2

915.4
965.7
1039.2

931,1
981,3
1059.2

943,4
966.7
1076,9

922,5
972,6
1049.4

{AUGUST 1973)

ALPHABETICAL INDEX
Series Finding Guide
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index}

Current issue
{page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Histrjrica
Series
descriptions
d£ta
(issue date) { ssue date)

A
Accession rate, manufacturing
2
Anticipations and intentions, businessmen's
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . . D61
Employees, manufacturing and trade
0446
Invsntories, manufacturing and trade
D450
Orders, new, manufacturing
0440
Prices, selling manufacturing
0462
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade
D460
Prices selling retail trade
D466
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
0464
D442
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
0444
Automobiles
Cars, new, purchased by households
430
Expenditures personal consumption
234
Product gross constant dollars
249

See Employr lent and unem )loym«nt.

46
46
47
46
47
47
47
47
46
46

85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85

3/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73

11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68

11/68
3/73
45
84
S e e N I A - P e rsonal consumfjtione>penditures.
S e e N I A - G r oss national pr oduct.

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Currant issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Tables

Charts

Series
Historical
data
descriptions
( ssue date) issue date)

Compensation of employees-Continued
Earnings, avg. hrly., prod, wkrs., priv. nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm
Earnings, real spendable average weekly
Wage and benefit 'decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .

740

58,59

92

8/73

6/72

741
859
748
749
53

58,59
58
59
59
23

92
92
93
93
76

8/73
7/73
2/72
2/72
8/73

6/72
10/72
6/72
6/72
7/68

Composite indexes
Capital investment commitments
Coincident indicators, five
Coincident indicators five deflated
Coincident indicators, five, rate of change
Employment, marginal adjustments
Financial flows sensitive
Inventory investment and purchasing
Lagging indicators six
Leading indicators, twelve
Leading indicators, twelve, reverse trend adj
Profitability

814
820
825
820
813
817
815
830
811
810
816

38
37
37
65
38
38
38
37
38
37
38

83
83
83

5/72
1/72
1/72
12/71
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72

853

See Investme nt, fixed.

435

45

84

3/73

11/68

33
34
36,42
36
34,40
34
33

81
81
82
82
81
81
81

6/73
7/72
6/73
4/73
4/73
7/72
4/73

11/72
7/64
11/72
10/72
10/72
11/72

83
83
83
S3
83
83
83

11/68
11/68

11/68
5/72
5/72

B
Balance of payments - See also Nl A - Foreign trade.
Balances
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current account .
Current account and long-term capital
•.
Goods and services
Goods, services and remittances
Government grants and capital transactions, net ....
Liabilities, liquid
Liabilities liquid and nonliquid
Liquidity, net
Merchandise trade
Reserve position, U.S., official
Reserve transactions, official
Special drawing rights, allocated to U.S
Exports
Goods and services
Income on U S investments abroad
Investment, foreign direct, in the U.S
Investment income, military sales and service
Merchandise adjusted
Military sales to foreigners
Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods
Orders, new, nonelectrical machinery
Securities, U.S., purchases by foreigners
Total, excluding military aid
Transportation and services receipts
Travelers, foreign, receipts from
Imports
Goods and services
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investments abroad, U.S. direct
Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Military expenditures abroad, U.S
Securities foreign U S purchases
Total general
Transportation and services, payments for

Bonds -Sae Interest rates.
Building - See Investment, fixed.
Business failures current liabilities
Business starts
Formation, business, net
Incorporations new
Buying policy production materials

88
87
87
87
87
88
87
87
87
86
87
87
87

575
517
519
250
515
570
530
532
521
500
534
522
535

53
49
49
49,51
49
53
50
50
49
4S
50
49

252
542
560
540
536
546
250
506
508
564
502
548
544

87
51
52
88
88
53
51
87
51
87
88
52
See Balance of payments 86
48
48
86
88
53
86
4B
88
52
88
52

10/70
11/72
11/72
11/72
11/72
10/70
8/70
8/70
1 / ;
17:
6/73
8/70
1 / ;
17:

1 / ;
17:
11/7;!
12/71!
11/72
11/72
11/72
balances.
3/73
3/73
12/72
6/73
12/75
11/72.

5/69

5/69*
5/69
5/69
5/69*
5/69

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
8/68#
5/69*
5/69
5/69
5/69

51
52

87
88

11/72
11/72

5/69
5/69

541
561
537
547
565
512
549
545

51
53
51
52
53
48
52
52

87
88
87
88
88
86
88
88

11/72
12/72
11/72
11/72
12/72
6/73
12/72
11/72

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

14

34

81

7/73

77
25,39
77
25
es.
See Inventor

7/73
7/73

253
543

*12
13
26

.

C
Canada- See International comparisons.
Capacity adequacy manufacturers'
Capacity utilization
Gap (potential GNP less actual)
Output to capacity, manufacturing
... .
Potential GNP constant dollars
Capital consumption allowances
Capital investment - See Investment, fixed.
Cars -See Automobiles.
Cash flow, net, corporate, constEnt dollars
Cash flow net corporate, current dollars
....
CompensEtion of employees - Sea also NIA - National
and personal income.
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfjirm
Compensation!, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm

44

207
850
206
296

11/68

See NIA - G oss national pr oduct.
62
96
1/73
See NIA - G ross national pr oduct.
See NIA -Sa ving.

84

....

112
110
*72
66
*113
39
33

D
Defense
Expenditures abroad, U.S. military
Obligations incurred, procurement
Obligations incurred, total
Orders, new, defense products
Purchases of goods and services
Sales, military to foreigners
Deficit or surplus, government - See NIA - Budget.
Depreciation
....
Diffusion indexes - See also Anticipations and intentions.
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy, insurance —
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
....
Industrial materials prices
Industrial production
Orders new durable goods industries
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices wholesale manufactured goods
Profits manufacturing .
....
Sales retail stores
Workweek avg production worksrs mfg

Disposable personal income - See NIA - National
and personal income.
Drawing rights
....
Durable goods
Automobiles - See Automobiles.
Expenditures, personal consumption -See NIA Personal consumption expenditures.
Inventories business, change in
Orders export excluding motor vehicles
Orders, new
Orders new components
Orders unfilled
....
....
Orders unfilled change in
Orders, unfilled, to shipments
Sales final
. . . .
....

625
547
621
616
648
647
264
546

7/72
89
55
See Balance jf payments- Ir iports.
4/73
89
55
4/73
89
55
8/73
89
55
8/72
89
55
See NIA - Go vernment purer ases.
See Balance )f payments • E xports.

296

SeeNIA-Sa *ng.

011
D5
041
023
047
06
019
058
034
054
D1

63
63
64
63
64
63
63
64
63
64
63

535

9/68#

See Balance >f payments - B llances,

97
98
98,100
97,100
98,101
97,99
97
98,102
97
98,102
97,99

V73
7/73
7/73
6/72
5/73
8/73
11/71
7/73
7/72
7/73
7/73

6/69*
4/69*
5/69*
6/69

6/72*

271
506
*6
06
96
25
852
270

S e e N I A - G r oss private domestic in vest nlent.
See Balance of payments - E xports,
9/68
77
25,39
8/73
See Diffusio i indexes.
9/68
78
27
8/73
9/68
8/73
79
29
9/68
96
62
8/73
See NIA - P i lal sales.

2
841
*5

20
60
20,39

E

35
34

31
31

80
80

8/73
8/73

1/72
1/72

745

58,59

92

9/72

10/72

746

58,59

93

9/72

10/72

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.




3/73

416

Construction - See Investment, fixed.
Consumer goods, ratio of business equipment to
Consumer installment debt - See Credit.
Consumer prices - See Price indexes - Consumer.
Consumer sentiment
Costs - See Labor cost and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, change in
Borrowing total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, change in
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, change in

Earnings - See Compensation of employees.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Claims, avg, weekly initial, unemploy. insurance . . . .
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance,
diffusion index
Employed persons in civilian labor force
Employees, mfq. and trade, diffusion index

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.

05
842
0446

74
94
74

7/73
4/73
5/73

See Diffusio i ndexes,
60
I 4/73
94
See Anticipa tionsand intent ons.

8/68
4/72
6/69

[4/72

NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.

119

Series F:inding Guide—Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series;," following this index)

Employment and unemployment-Continued
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls .
Employees on nonagrieuitural payrolls, components .
Help-wantod advertising in newspapers . , .'
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed
Job vacancies in manufacturing
Layoff rate manufacturing
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours tti nonacjrieultural estab., rate of change . .
Marginal employment adjustments
„
Overtime hours, production workers, mfft. . ,
Persons onQiinod in nonariricultural activities
Unemployed parsons in civilian labor force
Unemployment rate, both sexes, 16-10 years
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over . . . .
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate males 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present .
Unemployment rato Neijro and other races
Unemployment rate tot3l
Unemploymenf rato white
Workweek, production workers, components
Workwook, production workers, manufacturing
Equipment, business - SCIQ Investment, fixed.
Exports • See Balance of pmts. and NIA - Foreign trade.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Ml
041
46
860
50
3
48
48
813
21
42

21,41
75
See Diffusior ndexes.
21
74
62
96
21
74
20
74
21
75
65
See Composi e indexes.
20
74
21
75

843
846
845
*44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
D1
*1

60
60
60
22,42
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
See Diffusior^
20,39

94
94
94
75
75
94
75
94
75
94
indexes.
74

Historical
Series
data descriptions
(issue date) ( ssue date)

7/73

8/68

7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73
5/73

10/72
8/68#
8/68#
8/68#

7/73
4/73

4/72*
4/72

4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73

4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72

7/73

8/68

4A2

F
Financial flows, son si live
Foreign series- Soe International comparisons.
Foreign trade • Sue Balance of payments and NIA.
Francs • See International comparisons.
Free reserves . . . . . . .

817

93

See Compos e indexes.

35

82

2/73

11/72

G
Government • Sea Balance of payments, Defense,
and NIA.
Grass national product - See Capacity utilization and
NIA.

H
Hours - See Employment and unemployment.
Housing
Residential structures - Sae NIA • Gross private
domestic investment.
Units Qutrwi?od by local building permits
Units started private total
Vacancy rate rental housing

*29
28
857

26,39
26
62

78
78
96

11/72
6/73
1/73

4/69
6/72
10/72

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

International comparisons-Continued
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD European countries
United Kingdom
West Germany ...
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
.
...
United Kingdom
United States

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Historical Series
data descriptions
< ssus date: (issue date)

123
126
127
128
121
122
125

67
67
67
67
67
67
6?

103
103
104
104
104
103
104

3/73
3/73
3/73
9/71
3/73
3/73
3/73

143
146
147
148
142
19
145

68
68
68
68
6B
68
68

104
104
104
104
104
104
104

XO/7H
10/72
10/72
10/72

6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
2/73
6/72

1C/72
.10/72

inventories
Business inventories, change in - See NIA - Gross
private domestic investment.
65
Finished goods, book value, manufacturers'
851
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
815
Investment and purchasing
412
Manufacturers' book value
414
Manufacturers' condition of
*71
Manufacturing and trade, book value
»31
Manufacturing and trade change in
0450
Manufacturing and trade, diffusion index
Materials and supplies, change in mfrs.' book value . . 20
37
Materials purchased, higher inventories
26
Production materials, buying policy
286
Valuation, adjustment of, corporate profits

29
79
a/73
96
62
8/73
See Cornposi e indexes.
44
84
1/73
44
84
3/73
79
29,42
8/73
28,40
78
8/73
See Anticipa ions and inten ions.
28
79
8/73
28
78
2/73
28
79
a/73
See NIA -Na ional and prjrs trial income

Investment, fixed - See also NIA - Gross private
domestic investment.
97
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
11
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Capital appropriations, new, mfg., diffusion index . . 011
814
Capital investment commitments
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . . 9
8
Construction contracts, total value
Construction expend., bus,, mach. and equip, sales . . 69
853
Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods
560
Foreign direct investments in the U S
24
Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense . . .
*10
Plant and equipment, contracts and orders
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures . . . *61
061
Plant and equip., new bus. expend., diff. index
561
U S direct investmants abroad

27
78
1/73
26
77
1/73
See Diffusion indexes.
See Composi e indexes.
26
77
5/73
25
77
27
78
8/73"
62
96
5/73
See Balance t f payments • Hports.
26
8/73
77
25,39
77
a/73
27,42,43 78,84
3/73
See Antieipa ions and trtteti ions,
See Balance £ f payments - 1 nports.

9/66#
11/68

32
80
32,42
ao
32
80
See Price Ind axes.

lit
10/72

9/68
2/69

11/60
11/68
2/69
2/69
9/68

9/68
9/68

11/68

Investments, financial - See Balance of payments,
Composite indexes, Interest rates, International
comparisons - Stock prices, and Price indexes - Stock.
Italy - See International comparisons.

J
1

Japan • See International comparisons.

Imports- See Balance of payments and NIA Foreign trade.
Income • See also Compensation of employees
and NIA • National and personal income.
Household)!, compared to year ago ....
Household!;, mean probability of change

L

420
425
543
542
*52

income on U.S. investments abroad
Pnrennnl

Receipts for transportation and other
services, U S balance of payments
Receipts from forgign travelers in U.S
Industrial materials; prices - See Price indexes • Materials.
Industrial production • See else International
comparisons,
U S components
U.S, index
U S rate (if rhangg

3/73
45
84
3/73
43
84
See Balance < f payments - 1 npols.
See Balance e f payments - E xpo'ts.
76
8/73
23,41

548
544

11/68
11/68

See Balance c f payments • E xports.
See Balance c f payments - E xports.

D47
*47
47
288

See Oiffusior indexes.
23,41,67 76,103
65

5/73
5/73

7/68

. .....
.

*67
116
118
117
114
115

11/68
11/68

See NIA -NE tional and pers tnal income

133
136
137
138
132
135

*Denotos SHOES on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators,




120

36,42
35
36
35
35
35

82
82
82
82
82
82

66
66
66
66
66
66

103
103
103
103
103
103

1/73
2/73

2/;?3

68
*62
63
•17

8/72

a/73
1/73

3

See Employn wnt and urtom jloymont.

85
102

33
33

81
81

6/73
6/73

10/72
10/72

103

33

81

6/73

10/72

602
601
600
298

54
54
54
See NIA -Sa

09
89
89

8/72
8/72
8/72

7/68#
7/68#
7/680

ing.

270
274
273

15
15
18

71
71
72

10/72
10/72

10/69
10/69

M

Interest rates
Corporate bond yield
Mortgage yield, residential
Municipal bond yield
Treasury bill discount rate
Treasury bond yield
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom . .
West Germany

Labor cost per unit of gross product
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy
Labor cost, price per unit of
Labor force - See Employment and unemployment.
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Loans -See Credit.

Machinery - See Investment, fixed.
Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments.
Military -See Defense.
Money supply, change in
Money supply
,
Money supply and time deposits
Money supply, time deposits, and deposits
at nonbank thrift institutions

7/64"

2/73
2/73
2/73

7/64
7/64
7/64
7/64

6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72

9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72

N
National income and product accounts
Budget
Expenditures, Federal
Receipts, Federal
Surplus or deficit, Federal
Surplus Or deficit government
Final sales - See also Sales.
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.

NIA means National Income and Product Accounts,

1/73

Series Finding Guide—Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

National income and product accounts-Continued
Foreign trade • See afso Balance of payments
Exports, goods and services
Exports, goods and services net
Exports, goods and services, net, percent of GNP . . .
1 mports, goods and services
Government purchases (goods and services)
Federal Government
Federal Government, percent of GNP
Federal, State and local governments
Federal, State and local govts., constant dollars
National defense
State and local governments
State and local governments, percent of GNP
Gross national product
Auto product gross constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars

Charts

National and personal income
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of national income
Disposable personal income constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol.
Disposable personal income, per capita, current dol. .
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation adj
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation adj.,
percent of national income
Proprietors' income
Proprietors' income, percent of national income
Rental income of persons
Rental income of persons, pet. of national income . .
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods
Durable goods, except autos
Nondurable goods
Personal consumption expend., total, constant dol . .
Personal consumption expend., total, current dol ...
Personal consumption expend., total, pet. of GNP . .
Services

Tables

Historica
Series
data descriptions
(issue date (ii;sue date)

Series titles
(See complete titles in 'Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Historical Series
data descriptions
( ssue date] (issue date)

0
252
250
250A
253

13
13
19
13

71
71
73
71

10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72

262
262A
260
261
264
266
266A

14
19
14
18
14,55
14
19

71
73
71
72
71,89
71
73

10/72
10/72
10/72

18
9,18,23,
41,61,
65
9,23,41
65
61
61
9
9
9
56

72
69,76
95
69
69,76
69
95
95
69
69
69
90

1/73

243
246
245
245A
271
275
247
241
241 A
240
242
248
244
244A

12
18
12,28
19
15
15
18
12
19
12
12
18
12
19

70
72
70,78
73
71
71
72
70
73
70
70
72
70
73

280
280A
225
224
227
226
288
288A
220
222
286

16
19
10
10
10
10
16
19
10
10
16

71
73
69
69
69
69
72
73
69
69
72

10/72

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

286A
282
282A
284
284A

19
16
19
16
19

73
71
73
71
73

10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/S9
10/59

234
232
233
236
231
230
230A
237

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72

19
1
1

70
70
70
70
70
70
73
70

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

296
290
292
854

17
17
17
62

72
72
72
96

1/73

10/72
10/72
8/72

7/6e

294
298

17
17

72
72

1/73

10/69
10/69

236
275
274

SeeNIA-Pe rsonal consump tion expenc it u res.
S e e N I A - G r oss private dorr estic invest tient.
SeeNIA-Fi lal sales.

249
*205

GNP, constant dollars, rate of change
205
GNP, current dollars
*200
GNP, current dollars, rate of change
200
GNP, gap (potential less actual)
207
GNP, potential, constant dollars
206
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
217
Per capita GNP, current dollars
215
Price deflator, implicit
210
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private product . . . 211
Gross private domestic investment
Equipment, producers' durable
Inventories, business, change in, constant dollars . . .
Inventories, business, change in, current dollars —
Inventories, business, change in, percent of GNP
Inventories, business, durable goods, change in
Inventories, business, nondurable goods, change in . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, constant dollars . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, current dollars . . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, percent of GNP
Investment, yross private domestic, total
Structures nonresidential
Structures, residential, constant dollars
Structures, residential, current dollars
Structures, residential, percent of GNP

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

n,is
11

5/69
5/69

13/69
5/69

10/69
10/69
10/69

OECD, European countries, industrial production . .
Orders, new and unfilled - See Anticipations and
intentions, Balance of payments. Defense,
Durable goods, and Investment, fixed.
Output - See Industrial production, NIA - Gross national
product, and Productivity.

121

See Internatk nal compariso ns.

781
783
782
784

56,66
56
56
56

P

1/73

10/72
10/72
10/72

' 1/73
1/73
1/73
1/73

i/73"
1/73
1/73
1/73

9/72
1/73
9/72

10/72
10/72
10/72
1/73
9/72

10/72
9/72
9/72
1/73
9/72

10/72
10/72
10/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72

10/72
10/72
1/73
9/72

10/72
9/72

10/69
10/69
10/69

10/67
1CI/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
1C/69

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

Plant and equipment - See Investment, fixed.
Price indexes
Consumer - See also International comparisons.
All items .
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Deflators - See NIA - Gross national product
Labor cost, price per unit of
T . .
Materials industrial
Materials, industrial, components
Stock - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, diffusion index
Wholesale
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods components
Production - See Industrial production, Investment, fixed,
and N 1 A - Gross national product.
Productivity
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ. . .
Profits - See also N 1 A - National and personal income.
Corporate, after taxes . . . .
Income originating, ratio of profits to
Manufacturing
Manufacturing and trade, net
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability

90,103
90
90
90

7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

*17
*23
D23

30,40
80
30,40
79
See Diffusion indexes.

8/73
2/73

4/69

*19
019

30,40
79
See Diffusion indexes.

2/73

5/69

750
752
751
55
58
D58

57
91
57
91
57
91
31,57
80,91
80,91
31,57
See Diffusion indexes.

7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73

6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69

770
858

58,59
58

19/72
'9/72

10/72

*16
18
22
D34
D442
15
816

93
93

30,40
79
8/73
30
8/73
79
30
8/73
80
See Diffusion indexes,
See Anttcipat ons and inten tions.
30
80
1/73
See Composi e indexes.

11/68

6/68
7/68
1/72
7/68

3/69

R
Reserve position, U.S official
Reserves free .

534
93

See Balance o f payments - Ialances.
SeeFreerese ves.

S
Salaries - See Compensation of employees.
Sales - See also NIA- Final sales.
Final sales ...
Inventories to sales manufacturing and trade
Machinery and equip., and bus. construction expend.
Manufacturers' total value
Manufacturing and trade
Manufacturing and trade, net, diffusion index
Retail stores
Retail stores components
Retail stores constant dollars
Saving -See NIA -Saving.
Securities - See Balance of payments, Interest
rates. International comparisons - Stock prices,
and Price indexes -Stock.
Stock prices
Surplus or deficit, government - See NIA - Budget.

57
851
69
410
*56
D444
*54
054
59

24
76
8/73
See Inventori BS.
See Investme it, fixed.
44
84
1/73
24,41
76
8/73
See Anticipat 'ons and inten ions.
24,41
76
7/73
See Diffusiot indexes.
24
76
7/73

*19

See Price indi xes - Stock.

7/68

11/68
2/69
6/72

U
Saving
Capital consumption allowances
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving to disposable personal income
Profits, undistributed corporate plus inventory
valuation adjustment
Surplus or deficit, govt

V73

10/69
10/69
10/69

Unemployment - See Employment and unemployment.
United Kingdom - See International comparisons.

V
32

Vendor performance

29

79

2/73

W
Nondurable goods
Expenditures, personal consumption
Inventories, business, change in
Sales, final

'Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.




Wages and salaries - See Compensation of employees.
West Germany - See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices - See Price indexes - Wholesale.

#The "number" for this series title was changed :;ince the publication date shown.

NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.

121

Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the report's six sections, series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers. The series
numbers are for identification purposes only and do not
reflect sftriss relationships or order. To find chart and table
page numbers, historical data, and series descriptions, consult
the "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide."

233.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
except automobiles, in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A3)

253.

Imports of goods and services (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of tanomie Analysis

(A5, D2)

260.

Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysts
(A6)

261.

Government purchases of goods and services total,
1958 dollars (Q).=Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A 10)

262.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A6)

The "A" following a series number indicates a component
series (same numl)@r) as a percent of an aggregate series, such
as GNP or national income. The series in section B preceded
by an asterisk p are included in the 1966 NBER "short list"
of cyclical indicators, chart B8. The "D" preceding a number
indicates a diffusion index,

Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Elureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

236.

Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable
goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysts
(A3)

237.

Personal consumption expenditures, services, in
current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

240.

Gross private domestic investment, total {£}).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A4)

241.

The alphabetic-numeric designations following each series
title and source indicate the charts and tables in which the
series may be found. See the table of contents for the chart
and table titles and page numbers. "M" indicates monthly
series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of
month) or "EQCT (end of quarter).

234.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)

264.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (0).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Econonie Analysis
(A6, 03)
State and local govern merit purchases of (foods
and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(AO)

A National Income and Product

262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

200.

Gross national product in current dollars (Q).~
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, 82, B8, E5)

241 A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(AID

266.

205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, El, E5)

242.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)

210.

Implicit price deflator, gross national product
(0,).™Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(AT)

266A. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
{AID

243.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q),-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)

270.

Final sales, durable goods {Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

Per capita gross national product in current dollars
{(!).•= Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)

244.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)

271.

Change in business inventories, durable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

273.

Final sales (series 205 minus series 246), 1958
dollars (Q).-Oepartrrisnl of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(AID)

215.

217.

220.

222.

Pa capita gross national product in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Buraau of the Census
(A1)
National income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all
industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4, B4}

274.

Final sales, nondurable ijoods, {Q).~Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

275.

245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product {Q).-Qepartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(All)

Change in business inventories, nondurable goods
(Q).~Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

280.

Compensation of employees (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysts
(AO]

245.

Personal income in current dollars (Q).-Qeparlment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

(A2)
224.

244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures as a percent of gross national product
(QJ.-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(All)

Disposable personal income in current dollars
(0).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

246.

Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysts
(A10)

225.

Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars
(Q).™Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

226.

Per capita disposable personal income in current
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)

247.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, 1958 dollars {Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A 10)

227.

Per capita disposable personal income in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)

248.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

230.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in cur*
rsnt dollars (Q).-Bepartment of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

249.

Gross auto product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
{A 10)

230A. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(AID

250.

231.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958
dollars (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A3, AID)

250A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Anelysis
(AID

232.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

252.

122




Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)

280A Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q),-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(All)282.

282A. Proprietors' income as a percent of national income(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)

284.

Rental income of persons (Q).--Oepartment ol
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

284A. Rental income of persons as a percent of national
income (Q).-=Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(All)
286.

Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Oejpartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)

Proprietors' income (3).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjust
ment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A8V

286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjust
ment as a percent of national income (Q).~Dopart<
ment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis

Titles and Sources of Series

Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic
Analysis
(85)

39.

Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).-American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)

*16.

Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5, 88)

40.

*17.

Index of price per unit of labor cost-ratio, index
of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and
supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of
output (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, 88)

Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present
(M).-Departrnent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B1)

Ml.

Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey {MK-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)

42.

Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor force survey (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
{Bl)

*43.

Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(81, B8)

*44.

Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1.B8)

15.

(Continued)
288.

Net interest (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

288A. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).Oepartnnent of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A 11)
290.

Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

292.

Personal saving (Q).-Department
Bureau of Economic Analysis

294.

Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

18.

Capital consumption allowances, corporate and
noncorporate {Q}.-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

*19.

Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).~
Standard and Poor's Corporation
(85, B8, E3, F3)

20.

Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories
of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of "he Census
(B4)

21.

Average weekly overtime hours of production
workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bt)

45.

Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating
incorporate business (Q}.-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(85)

Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpower
Administration
(81)

46.

Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(Bl)

Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, 88, E3, E4)

*47.

Index of industrial production (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(82, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)

Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(83)

48.

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1,E5)

Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)

50.

Number of job vacancies in manufacturing (EOM).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (81)

*52.

Personal income (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(82, 88)

53.

Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(82)

*54.

Sales of retail stores (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(82, B8, E3, E4)

296.

298.

of Commerce,
(A9)

Government surplus or deficit total (D).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

B Cyclical Indicators
*1..

2.

Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)

3.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).-Department of
Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(Bl, E3)

*23.

24.

Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

*5.

22.

25.

*6.

26.

Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)

Corporate profit; after taxes, 1958 dollars (Q)Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)

Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M).-National Association of Purchasing Management
(84)

28.

9.

*1Q.

Index of construction contracts, total value
(M).—McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3)
Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (B3)
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
{M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis May 1970 and by source agency
thereafter.
(B3, 88)

11.

Index of net business formation (M) .-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3, B8)

13.

Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(83)

Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(83, 68)

*31.

Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census
(B4, B8)

Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, E5)

*56.

32.

Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(84)

Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8)

57.

Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

33.

Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Buruau of Economic Analysis
(B6)

Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(B3, E3)

*12.

*29.

55.

8.

New private housing units started, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)

14.

Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.
(86)




34.

Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)

35.

Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

37.

Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of
purchased materials (M).-National Association of
Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Econom c Analysis
(84)

(B2)
58.

Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(65,04, E3, £4)

59.

Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (M).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(82)

*61.

Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(B3, B8, C1, C2)

*62.

Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and
salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to
index of industrial production,
manufacturing
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, 88)

123

Titles and Sources of Series

Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages
(M|.-Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(86)

*200.

Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in
section A.

(Continued)
63.

Index of unit labor cost, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
<B5)

*205.

Twelve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted
composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87)

811.

Twelve leading indicators-composite index prior to
reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10,
12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87)

813.

Marginal employment adjustments-leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

430.

Number of new cars purchased by households
(Q).-Departmont of Comrrorce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University of
Michigan, Survey Research Canter
(CD

Change in business inventories (GIMP component)
{CO. See in section A.

810.

Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial changes (increase, decrease, and increase loss
decrease) in income of households (Q).-Qapartmont
of Commerce, Bureau of tho Census
(CD

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.

245.

425.

435.

118.

65.

Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EQM).-Departmont of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)

66.

Consumer installment debt {EOM).=Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally
adjusted nst change added to seasonally adjusted
fiyuire for previous month to obtain current figure
(86)

*67.

Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities
(Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6, B8)

68.

Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product
(1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of
current-dollar compensation of employees to gross
corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Qepartnnent
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

69.

Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and
commercial construction put in place) (M),
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (S3)

814.

Capital investment commitments-leading composite
index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(87)

*71.

Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EQMK-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(B4, 68)

815.

Inventory investment and purchasing—leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37)
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87)

*72.

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis {86, B8)

816.

Profitability-leading composite index (includes series
16, 17, and 19) (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87)

0460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)

817.

Sensitive financial flows-leading composite index
(includes series 33, 85, 112, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87}

0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permiss on. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
0464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)

85.

Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus
currency) [Ml] (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

93.

Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)

820.

Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87, E5)

Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Qepartment of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(83)

825.

Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index
(includes series 41, 43, 47, 520 and 560) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

96.

97.

Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
(EOQ).-The Conference Board
(B3)

102.

Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's [M2]
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)

830.

103.

Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M3] (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)

Six lagging indicators-composite index (includes
series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) {M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

C Anticipations and Intentions

0440. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Brad street,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not bo
reproduced without written permission from tho
source.)
(C2)

D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). =Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission, This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
0444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).-=Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
0446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Ins. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Ins. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)

0466. Selling prices, retail trade (C).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not bo
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)

D Other Key Indicators
55.

Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M). See in section B.

Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(86)

211.

Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(Q).-Department of Comfnrce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D4)

250.

Balance on goods and seivices; U.S. balance of
payments (0). See in section A.

252.

Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants; U.S. balance of payments ((1).
See in section A.

253.

Imports of goods and services: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). See in section A.

264.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
national defense (0). See in section A.

500.

Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series
512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(01)

502.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total
(M)."-Department of Commerce, Bureau of tho
Census
(DO

Net changs in consumer installment debt (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, 68)

114.

Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
See in section B.

Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(86)

*113.

58.

Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q).-Department of
Commerce, 8ureau of the Census
(CD

Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
in credit markets (Q).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

112.

Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries (Q). See in section 8.

410.
110.

61.

412.

414.

115.

Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-Treasury
Department
(B6)

116.

Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-First National City Bank of New York and
Treasury Department
(66)

416.

117.

124

Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(B6)




420.

Manufacturers' inventories, total book value
(EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(C1)
Percent of total book value of inventories held by
manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less
percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD
Percent of total gross capital assets held by com
pcinies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12
months, less percent classifying existing capacity as
excessive (EOQ).—Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(CD
Current income of households compared to income a
year ago (percent higher, lower, and unchanged)
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD

Titles and Sources of Series

546.

Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

748.

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-first year average (mean) changes (QKDepartment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D5)

547.

749.

Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods
except motor vehicles and parts (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)

U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of
payments !Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-average (mean) changes over life of contract
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(05)

548.

750.

Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery
(M).-McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D1)

Receipts fur transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Elconomic Analysis
(02)

Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)

549.

Payments for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)

751.

Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)

512.

General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)

560.

752.

Index of wholesale prices, farm products (MKDepartment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)

515.

Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S.
balance of payments (QK-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)

Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(D2)

561.

770.

Index of output per man-hour, total private economy
(QK-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D,5)

Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (QK-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
{02}

U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

564.

781.

Index of consumer prices (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4, E5, F1)

Balance on current account and long term capital;
U.S. balance of payments (QK-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

565.

782.

Index of consumer prices, food (MK-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)

Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of
payments <Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

570.

783.

Index of consumer prices, commodities less food
(MK-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D4)

Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of (payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)

575.

784.

Index of consumer prices, services (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all
foreigners, total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

600.

Federal Government surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

841.

Total civilian labor force, labor force survey
(MK-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(06)

601.

Federal Government receipts, national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(03)

842.

Total civilian employment, labor force survey
(MK-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

843.

Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(MK-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

844.

Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (MK-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(06)

(Continued)
506.

508.

517.

519.

521.

522.

530.

532.

534.

535.

536.

Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding
military grants) to foreign official agencies, total
outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

602.

U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Departmunt of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

Federal expenditures, national income and product
accounts {Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D3)

616.

Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights:
U.S. balance of payments (QK-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Defense department obligations incurred, total,
excluding military assistance (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

621.

Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D3)

625.

Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (MK-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(03)

845.

Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (MK-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(06)

647.

New orders, defense products industries (MKDepartmeni: of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D3)

846.

648.

New order;;, defense products (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(03)

Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (MK-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D6)

847.

740.

Index of average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (MK-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
. (D5)

Unemployment rate, white, labor force survey
(MK-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

848.

741.

Index of nial average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Unemployment rate, Negro and other races, labor
force survey {M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)

858.

Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
private ncmfarm economy (Q).-Department of
Labor, Buruau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
(QK-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

859.

Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervispry workers (with 3 dependents)
on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1967 dollars
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

537.

Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military:
U.S. balance of payments (OK-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)

540.

U.S. investment income, military sales, and other
services exports, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

541.

542.

543.

544.

545.

Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures
and other services imports: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (QK-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments {QK-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

745.

Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (QK-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)

746.




Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, private nonfarm economy (QK-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS

POSTAGE AND
FEES PAID

Washington, D.C. 20402

U.S. G O V E R N M E N T
PRINTING OFFICE
375

OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL

Titles and Sources of Series
E Analytical Measures

France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F2)
Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lnstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F2)

128.

Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (F2)

132.

United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).~
Ministry of Labour (London)
(F1)

133.

Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion
Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F1)

135.

West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F1)

136.

France, index of consumer prices (M), Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F1)

137.

Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-Institute Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F1)

138.

Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo)
(F1)

United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M). See in section B.

142.

United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The
Financial Times (London)
'
(F3)

United Slates, index of industrial production (M).
See in section 6.

143.

Canada, index of stock prices (M). -Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)

145.

West Germany, index of stock prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F3)

146.

France, index of stock prices (M),~lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)

147.

(Continued)

126.

127.

857.

Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Institute Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(F3)

148.

Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Tokyo)
(F3)

781.

United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in
section 0.

Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental
housing units as a percent of total rental housing

(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
860.

Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to total number of persons unemployed

(M).-Th(! Conference Board, and Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
|E2)
47.

Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.

48.

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See
in section B.

200.

GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.

205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.

206.

Potential level of gross national product in 1958
dollars (Q).-Council of Economic Advisers
(E1)

207.

The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the
same number and are obtained from the same sources. See
section B for titles and sources of 01,.05, 06, D11, D19,
023, D41, D47, D54, 058, D61, and section C for 0440,
0442, 0444, 0446, D450, 0460, D462, 0464, 0466, and
0480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:

Gap-the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual
GNP
(series 205)
(Q).-Council of Economic
Advisers
(El)

820.

850.

851.

852.

853.

854.

Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 4), 43,47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.

Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Economics
Department
(E2)
Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56),
manufacturing and trade total (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)

D34.

F International Comparisons
19.

47.

121.

Ratio, unfitted orders (series 96) to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)

Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (M).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
(E2)
Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
(series 292 divided by series 224) (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)




Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National
City Bank of New York; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic; Research, Inc.
(E3)

122.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial
production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(F2)
United Kingdom, index of industrial production

(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)

(F2)

123.

Canada, index of industrial production (M).Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)

125.

West

Germany,

index

of

industrial

production

(M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal
adjustment by OECD
(F2)