Full text of Business Conditions Digest : August 1965

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis




U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
John T. Connor, Secretary
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director"
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician

PREFACE
This report brings together many of the available
economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation.
The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators
approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis. It is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their
usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the
expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads'1
and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments
spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are included
in preparing the report. The exact number of series included for the total
and important .classes of series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports. A complete
list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this
report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear
to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series
for business cycle studies. Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of
the month following the month of data.

>4ugusf 7965
DATA THROUGH JULY
Series ESI No. 65-8

New Features and Changes for This Issue •Data Bank of Business Cycle Series
BCD Technical Papers

iii
iv
iv

Introduction
Method of Presentation _.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2

1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6

TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2, Latest Data for Business Cycle Series

TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE

3. Distribution of ''Highs1' for Current and Comparative Periods _ _
2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
4. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
5. Selected Diffusion Index*** and Components
__

ABOUT THE COVER—

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Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.

8
10
24

38
39
42
46

CONTINUED




CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles
_._-_„_
CHART 4. Comparisons of Specific Cycles
„
„
„_
TABLE 6. Comparisons From'Reference Peak Levels and Reference Trough
Dates
«.
.
.
._„„„___
___„___.._
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
.__ _ _ _ .
TABLE 8. Comparisons From Specific Peak and Trough Levels and Specific
Trough Dates _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
__.
__
._____„_„_

Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ „ _ _ _ _ _ _ „
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . . . _ . .
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series (See July issue.)
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series _ _ ^
_»____^_^^____.____.___
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961 _ _ „ „ - _ - _ - _ _ _ - „ „ _ _ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ _
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ . . . „ „ _ . „ _

Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes

,__ = _ , - _ . , _ ^ _ _ _ _ D

58
61
64
65
66

67
68

69

70
71

75

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D A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.

' '

'*

ISSDI

Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. Revisions from 1948 to date are shown throughout
the report for series based on the national income and
product accounts (series 16, 21, 49, 50, 52, 53, 57, and
95); other series in this report based wholly or in part
on national income data (series 17, 22, 62, and 68) will
be revised in a subsequent issue. These changes reflect
definitional and statistical revisions in the national
income statistics compiled by the Office of Business
Economics. For a detailed explanation of these changes,
see the August 1965 issue of The Survey of Current
Business.

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2. The two series on money supply (series 85 and
98) have been revised for the period beginning January
1959. These changes reflect the source agency's adoption
of new 1964 benchmarks and new seasonal factors for 1959
to date.

?J3

3. Monthly seasonally adjusted data on Federal cash
receipts and payments (series 82, 83, and 84) have been
adjusted slightly to agree with quarterly totals published by the Bureau of the Budget.
4. Appendix F includes historical data for series
16, 21, 49, 50, 52, 53, 57, 82, 83, 84, 85, 95, and 98.

,:^^
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The September issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS
is scheduled for release September 22.







A punch card file containing data for the business cycle series included in table
2, the diffusion indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5)
used to compute 14 of the diffusion indexes in table 4, is maintained at the
Bureau of the Census. Duplicate cards for 85 of the 87 series, the 30 diffusion
indexes, and 145 of the component series are available at cost, (The other series
can be obtained only from the sponsoring agencies.) The cost for these cards
ranges from $58 for 500 cards to $137 for 5,000 cards. One card is required
per series year. Thus, for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to date, the cost
would be about $70. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes
and 145 component series, the cost would be about $135 for the same period.
At present, the Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current.
However, the figures for the principal series and diffusion indexes required for
this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.

To aid users of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS, technical papers dealing
with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this
report from time to time. A limited number of copies of these articles are available,
free of charge. The following papers have been included as part of this program:
No. 1.—Summary Description of the X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in
the September 1963 issue). A new version of this program is scheduled
to be released later this year. Announcement will be made at that time.
No. 2.—Business Cycle Indicators—The Known and the Unknown by Julius
Shiskin (published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue).
No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H. Young (published
in May 1964 issue).
No. 4.—Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and
Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964
issue).
No. 5. —^Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures by Max
Shor and Allan Young (published in September 1964 issue).
No. 6.—The Current Expansion in Historical Perspective by Julius Shiskin
(published in January 1965 issue).
Please send requests for the material described above to Julius Shiskin, Chief Economic
Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233.

Reports in the BUREAU OF THE CENSUS TECHNICAL PAPER SERIES are also
useful to BCD readers. Two reports of particular interest are—
Tests and Revisions of Bureau of the Census Methods of Seasonal Adjustments,
Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 5, by Julius Shiskin (1961), available
from the Bureau of the Census at $1 per copy;
Estimating Trading-Day Variation in Monthly Economic Time Series, Bureau of
the Census Technical Paper. No. 12, by Allan Young (1965), available from
Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.,
20402, at 30 cents per copy.

IV

Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of economic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.

tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
g>

NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.

O>

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales,

(§>

NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.

Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States- are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.

Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac


IF
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
|>

Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2). —Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional

U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
[>>

Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.

[>

Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 to 8).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.

In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.

The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.

m
DC
Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how


ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are not
shown.

MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month

moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted h data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 15 -term Spencer curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical .series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1

AEMMYT3CM
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.

1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).




Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult "to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the cyrrent highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In, short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series, the percent of the series components

which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread in increases are often associated
with rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp
reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.



Direction-of-Change Table
The direction-of-change table (table 5) shows directions of change (" + " for rising, "o" for unchanged,
and "-»" for falling) in the components used for the
diffusion indexes. This table provides a convenient
view of changing business conditions and is helpful
in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it shows which economic activities went
up, which went down, and how long such movements
have persisted. The table also helps to show how
a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the
economy to another.
Directions of change for most diffusion index components are shown for consecutive months and, depending upon the irregularity of the series, for either
6- or 9-month spans.

In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the indicator series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference trough
dates. This type of comparison shows whether, and
by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or
falls short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from reference trough dates (table 7). For the current expansion, this type of comparison measures the extent of
the rise from the trough level (February 1961) to the

level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of months
from the trough of the expansion) are compared with
the level at the trough. The same situation exists here
as for the comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier
expansions that were shorter than the current one,
the comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
from reference peak dates. These comparisons will
be made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same for
all series), comparisons are made on the basis of
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
For example, the specific peak for the index of industrial production is January 1960 (corresponding
to the May 1960 reference peak); the specific peak
for stock prices is July 1959. (See appendix B.)
Specific cycle comparisons are shown in table 8. For
earlier expansions, these comparisons differ from those
shown for reference cycles in that they show only the
period up to the next specific peak date and do not
include any part of the contraction that followed. In
many cases, therefore, the earlier comparisons cover
fewer months than those for the current expansion.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related
series for cycles prior to the period covered by the
series used currently. The principal substitutions of
this type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).



Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle indicators: Historical
time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.

Cyclical Comparisons
(charts 3 and 4)
These charts compare the performance of selected indicators during the current expansion with their performance during the expansion phase of previous business
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts is
disregarded, and instead the data are alined at the
strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions,
the reference trough (see chart 3) and specific trough
(see chart 4). Thus, these comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the current expansion relative to
cyclical movements during the expansions of previous
cycles.
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made. Chart
3 compares the pattern of the current reference cycle
(the cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the corresponding phases of previous reference cycles. Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle (the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases of
previous specific cycles in that series. In both'charts, the
trough dates are alined. In chart 3, the levels of the
preceding peaks are also alined while in chart 4, the
levels of the troughs are alined. See the section, "Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions of these comparisons.

Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER,

CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series

See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted,
'"12" = December)

Solid line indicates monthly data, v
,
(Data may be actual monthly fig- x^
ures or MCD moving averages.*)
Broken Mne indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.

Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II" = second quarter)

Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.

Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable,
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.

Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.

CHART 2 — Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.

Scale shows percent of components rising.

Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.

Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes, ("12" =
December)

Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.

* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVa, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.




Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)

Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.

Section ONE

charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policyf and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT

INDICATORS

Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS




Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supplyt and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL

COMPARISONS

Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries

TABLE

BASIC DATA

P^

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS

Percent change2

Basic data 1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

bed

AUGUST 7965

Unit of
measure

Apr.'
1965

May
1965

Average
change,
195319633

July
1965

June
1965

Apr.
to
May
1965

May
to
June
1965

June
to
July
1965

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1.
2
30
3
4
5.

Average workweek of production workers, mfg
Accession rate, manufacturing
Nonagricultural placements, all industries
Layoff rate manufacturing
Temporary layoff all industries
Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance

Hours
Per 100 employ. .
Thous
Per 100 employ .
Thous

do

6. New orders, durable goods industries
Bit. dol
24. New arders, machinery and equipment industries. . . .
do
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . . Mil. sq. ft.
floor space
Bil. dol
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
do
11. New capital appropriations manufacturing 4
7.
29.
38.
13
14.

Private nonfarm housing starts
New building permits, private housing
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
Liabilities of business failures

15. Large business failures
16. Corporate profits after taxes4
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing4
22. Ratio, profits to4 income originating, corporate,
all industries

Ann. rate, thous.
1957-59=100....
do
Number
Mil. dol
No. per week . . .
Ann, rate,
bil. dol .
1957-59=100....
Cents

40.9

3.9
531
1.5

41.0
P4.4

p41.0
(NA)

0.5
4.8
1.8
9.4

-0.2

0.0

+0.5
+2.6

+10.0

-0.4
+6.7

+3.8
+7.1

-1.5
(NA)

-37.3

+13.6

0.0

-3.1

(NA)

117°

529
1.4
102

549
pi. 3
140

237

224

224

231

5.3

+5.5

22.0-4

r20.99
r4.07

r20.95
r4.00

P21.99
P4.37

3.8
4.5

-4.8
-0.2

-0.2
-1.7

+5.0
+9.2

56.13
r5.02

55.28
P4.73

9.7
4.9

-12.7

-1.5
-5.3

(NA)
(NA)

+2.3
+1.1
+1.1
+3.9
+2.5

-6.6

4.08

64.26
4.98

541
(NA)

121

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

17.8

11.4

+12.8

+0.8
(NA)

1,532
104.7
103.6
16,504
79.51

1,501
109.4
104.3
16,043
139.09

rl,535
rllO.6
105.4
16,671
135.66

pi, 433
P108.5

120.64

16.9

-74.9

33

47

47

39

13.1

-42.4

r!05.5

P44.4
r!05-4

r!06.3

p!06.0

(NA)

**6.3
0.7
6.8

+0.9
-0.1
(NA)

(NA)

5.1

(MA)

2.6

+1.5

**i. 8

-2.0

Percent

19. Stock prices, 500 common siocks*
1941-4340 ....
21. Change in business inventories, all industries4- 5 .. Ann. rate,
bil. dol
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade
do
inventories^
20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories
of materials and suppliesS
do

41.1
r4.0

87.97

89.28

85.04

(NA)
(NA)

84.91

rn-6.7

7.3
3.8
1.0
2.7

-2.0
+4.5
+0.7
-2.8

0.0

-1.9
(NA)
(NA)

+11.1
+17.0

+0.9

-0.3

-4.7

-0.2

+10.2

r+7.6

p-i-6.9

(NA)

3.5

-2.6

-0.7

(MA)

+5.3

is-1.5

p-0.4

(NA)

1.5

-3.8

-1.9

(NA)

61

60

58

57

6.8

-1.6

-3.3

-1.7

do

67

65

62

62

5.8

-3.0

-4.6

do

72

70

66

62

7.7

-2,8

-5.7

+0.84
116.7

r+0.50
116.9

r+0.23
115.3

1*0.35
114.6

59,913
66,874
4.9
2.5
3.1

r 60, 110
66,979
4.6
2.5
2.9

r60,362
67,459
4.7
2.4
2.9

p60,528
68,092
4.5
2.3
3.0

1957-59=100....
do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do

143
r!40.9

145
141.4

146
r!42.4

P143.6

Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
do
do
Personal income
do
Labor income in mining, manufacturing, constr
Sales of retail stores
Mil. dol
Wholesale prices except farm products and foods . . . 1957-59=100....

2,962.0
r520.7
r!39.7
22,865
102.2

37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories . .
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments
60 days or longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
industriesS
23. Industrial materials prices*

Percent

Bil. dol
1957-59=100....

0.0
-6.1

+0.12

-0.34

-0.27

1.3

+0.2

-1.4

-0.6

0.3
0.4
3.9
5.6
4.8

+0.3
+0.2
+6.1

+0.4
+0.7
-2.2
+4.0

+0.3
+0.9
+4.3
+4.2
-3.4

3.1
1.1

+1.4
+0.4

0.49

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
42
43.
40.
45.

Thous
Employees in nonagricultural establishments
do
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Percent
do
Unemployment rate married males
do
Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State . . .

46. Help-wanted advertising
47. Industrial production4
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
49. GNP in current
dollars4
57. Final sales4
51
52
53.
54.
55.




p!45

*n.3

r601.4
r665.9
r659.2
2,871.5
r525.3
r!40.6
r23,352
102.3

r3,019.4
r528.8
rUl.5
r 23, 299
r!02.6

p3, 021.0
P530.6
P142.7
p23,759
p!02.6

0.0
+6.5

**1.5
a* 1.3

+0.7
+1.4
+1.8

1.5
*tt 0 > 5
•'"-0.8
0.8
0.2

-3.1
+0.9
+0.6
+2.1
+0.1

0.0
+0.7
+0.7

-0,7
+0.8

+5.2
+0.7
+0.6
-0.2
+0.3

+0.1
+0.3
+0.8
+2.0

0.0

beef

TABLE

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued

Basic data 1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Apr.
1965

Unit of
measure

May
1965

Percent change2
June
1965

July
1965

Average
change,
195319633

Apr.
to
May.
1965

May
to
June
1965

June
to
July
1965

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment*
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP4
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods
66, Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans*6

Ann. rate,
bil. dol
1957-59=100....
do
Bil. dol

... do
Mil. dol
Percent

a49.60
r97.2

r9?'.i

r97.2

P97.2

(NA)
64.0
22.3

60,98-4

64.3

P 64.6

(NA)

22.4

p22.3
62,256

(NA)
(NA)

61,654

4.99

3.2
0.6
0.9
0.5

+1.2
+0.1

0.8
0.8
2.3

(NA)
+0.5

0.0

0.0

+0.5

(NA)

+0.4
+1.1

-0.4
+1.0
+0.4

(NA)
(NA)

-9.8
+2.0

OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82. Federal cash payments to public
83.
84.
95.
90.

Ann. rate,
bit dol
do
Federal cash receipts from public
5
do
Federal cash surplus or deficit
do
Balance, Federal income and product account^ 5...
Mil. dol
Defense Department obligations, procurement

91.
92
99.
93
85

Defense Department obligations, total
Military contract awards in U S ...
New orders, defense products
Free reserves*5
Change in money supply5

98 Change in money supply and time deposits5
110 Total private borrowing4
Ill Corporate gross savings^
112 Change in business loans 5
113
114
115
116
117

Change in consumer instal Iment debt s
Treasury bill rate*
..
Treasury bond yields*
... .
Corporate bond yi6lds*
Municipal bond yields*

118
86.
87
88
89

Mortgage yields*
Exports, excluding military aid
General imports
.
Merchandise trade balance5 5
U S balance of payments^'

81.
94
96.
97.

do..
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
do
Ann. rate,
mil dol
do
Ann. rate,
bil. do!
do
Percent
do
do
do

r!28.8
rl!9.9
r-8.9
p+2.9
1,56?

125.2
r!53.5
r+28.3
1,557

4,630
2,025
r2.46

4,593
2,926
3.24
-112

r+6.00
iM-9.00

-178

.

r-8.16
rO.OO

rl33.0
r!19.4
r-13.6

P119.9
p!21.8
P+1.9

(NA)

26.9

(NA)

2,438
r2.31
r-184

p2.60
p-176

r+13.44
r+12.60

Pf5.l6
pf9.72

(NA)

p73,740
p49,040

.

do
Mil. dol
......'do. ......
.do
do
.......

Consumer prices
; . 1957-59-100....
do
Construction contracts value
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
. Bil. dol
6
do
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing . .

+6.32
+8.93
3.93
4.15
4.48
3.15
5.45

2,380.3
1,834.7
+545.6

109.5
152
56.37

+11.04
+8.04
3.90
4.14
4.52
3.17
5.45

3.7
4.1
4.4
**2.1

3.81
4.14
4.57
3.24
5.44

2,277.7
1,798.9
+478.8
p+298

2,184.8
1,834.8
+350.0

109.9
145
r56.88

110.2
139
r57.10

(NA)
3.83
4.15

4.57'
3.27
5.44
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

P57.45

+0.4
+0.6

(NA)

+15.5

(NA)

+20.4

(NA)

-6.1

104

-6

+12.6
+8

**2.78
**2.52

-14.16
-9.00

+21.60
+12.60

-8.28
-2.88

+4.72
-0.89

+0.34
-0.82

-1.49

7.3
1.8
1.7
2.6

-0.8
-0.2
+0.9
+0.6

-2.3

+0.5
+0.2

0.6
4.6
3.6

o;o
-4.3

1.22
0.85

59.0

267
(NA)
(NA)

-0.4
-4.7

+0.8

4.3

+9.89

+3.3

-30.8
-24.1
-66

15.1
26.2
23.0

11.6

r+11.38
+7.22

+2.9

-21.9
-37.2

0.2
7.0
1.5
6.6

+13.0
-0.2

-2.0

-66.8
+938
+0.4
-4.6
+0.9

0.0
+1.1
+2.2
-0.2
-4.1
+2.0

-128.8

+0.3
-4.1
+0.4
(NA)

(NA)

0.0
+0.9

0.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
+0.6

r= revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available.
**Computed from unrevised figures.
iSeries are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in
Ia 9

2

To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and risewhen business falls are inverted so that
rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,5,14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g.,
if the rate of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as +0.6. See footnote 5 for other "change"qualifications.
3Jhis average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-63 for most series.
^Quarterly
series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
5
$ince basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of
measure
as the basic data, rather than in percent
6
Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.




BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators

Digitized for10
FRASER


1. Ayg. workweek, prod. wkrs., mfg. (hours)

!

2 .Accession rate, mjij. iper JQO employees)

30. Nonagri. placements, oil indus. (thous.

S
;

i
i
;

3, Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employeesf
'
inverted scale)

4. T0mp. layoff, oil Indus, (thous.-inverted
scale. MCD moving avg.-5 term)

i

5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl.
insur. {thous.-inverted scale)

bed

bed

CHART

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965




BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO

PRESENT-CONTINUED

NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

9. Cons)r. contracts, coifi. and indus. (mil. sq. ft; of
floor; area. MCD moying avg^-6 term)
;

•

:

«M I

rih"t"rr7 rf

|'ll. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol)

]

|

!

j

7. Private nonfarm housing starts (ann.rate, millions,
MCpT moving avg>6i1erm) r

—.=

9. New bldg. permits, private housing units
L .(index: 0
=
>

'irr^TTnnn
11

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued




Index of net business formation (19

New bus. incorporations (thous.)

Jab. of bus. failures (mil, dolnverted scgle^ MCD moyljing avg,^6jer

Large bus. failures (no. per wk.nverted scale. MCD moving avg.-6 term

\JT

' , • . • .yJjiiil

v

^v v' I

dauM^

bed

bed

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965




BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
(Bay) (Fife.)

-4&-4e'porote prof its-after Wes; Q (ann;fat(

Jabor cost, mRj._ (index: 195Z-!

o, profits to income or

prices, 300
jLx:J941-43=10)

iliMyiliiU'!l

''' [iVUiiJiilijiiLlul

CHART

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 1965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued




I

21. Change in bus. inventories, oil Indus., 0 (ann. rate, bil. dot.)

j 31. Change in book value, mfg> and
trade inventories (qnn. rate, bil. dot.
MCD moving avg.-^ term) i

["20. Change in took vajlue, mfr$7 Inventories of
:
materials and supplies (ann. rote, bil. doll

*|

37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories

26. Buying policy

percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer

32. Vendor performance, percent reporting sloyver deliveries

25. Change in unfilled orders,! dur. goods indus, (bil. dot.
MJCD moving avg.|4 term)!

1

23

Industrial materiqll_pricesj(index: 195>7-59?=100)

bed

bed

AUGUST 7965




BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

I

I

I

I

• I

i

43,.Jneqploymen» .cate^aU|>eif*nt~inveftml~-*tale)-—i

J

^

.^L^i

J- -

LJ_L ! ^

AvgJweekly insured Lnemployment rjate, State i
(perc^ntrinverted scafei
1
1
_ LJ

fldyfrtisig_J[nde|i:J957-59f=100

CHART

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued

I

i

47. Industrial production (in<jex: 1957-59=10(f))

_.!_

i

. .i...-

L.

50. ONP in 1958 dolars, Q?(ann. rate,

.-__f
.
__ . .1. ;
. _..._
49, GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit dot.)

M>1

DM

ft


16


bed

bed

AUGUST 1965

BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued

(fc) (id)
IP

T




alfSMSA^s exc^ptrHew-forMannr=rate, trik dok

mining mfg., constr
ann. rate, bil. iloL)

Sales of retail stores (

Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods (in lex: 1957-59=100

CHART

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 1965

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators

|j

61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q|(ann. rate, bil. do).)

60
SO
40

I
|
2
•33

30

62. Labor cj>st per unit of Output, nifg. (index: 195^9^100)

Cost per unit of output




68, Ijabor cost per dol, of real corp, GNP, Q (index; 1957-59=100)
I

64. JooLvelyjt oi mfrs/_ inventodes J(bii. doL)

65. Book value of mfrs/ inventories,

67. Bank rates on short-tern] bus. loans, Q (percent)

§

20
'
110 |]
105 JL
100 -^
,a»
95 ^
90
]
85

bed

CHART

AUGUST 7965




BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series

84. Fed. cash surplus or deficitjfann. rate, bil. flol.
MCQ moving qvg.-f term]

95. Surplus or deficit, fed. income and
pj^dycL acct., Qjtgjm. i^e[J)il.jcloJL

__^_^

__

927 Military cTrffract awo7afs in U.S. (MlTEon

D

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 1965

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

93. Free reserves (bit. dol.)

185. Chaige in money Supply

98. Change in rtioney supply and time deposits!
tercent. MCD moving avg. —6 term)

110. Toiql private borrowing,^

111. Corporate gross savingsrQ arm. rate, bit. dol.)

2. Change in >usiness loans ( nn. rate, bil. dol.
MO movinj avg.-3 term)

iiijjy^^



uuJ lllJljjy! a IUIL U' U ![!lLl:J!k[!:li;ki^iyiiidtt

bed

AUGUST 7965




BASIC DATA

CHART

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

—r

115J. Treasury bond (yields (percent

116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
I
I
I

Municipal bond yieids (percent)

JJ 2 Jl

21

CHART

BAS|c

DATA

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

(Mi)
I?

T




AUGUST ?965

bed

bed

AUGUST 7965




BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons

CHART

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators

Year and month

1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

(Hours)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

(Per 100
employees)

4.0.1
40.4

4.3
4.2

4-0.5
40.6
40,4
40.4.
40 5
40.3
40.5
40.2
40.4
40.3

4,1
4.1
4.2
4.0

40.5
40.3
40.4
40.1
40.4
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.5
40.6
40.5
40.7

3.8
3.8
3.8
4.0
3-9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.9

40 2
40 7
40.6
40 7
40.6
40 6
40 6
40 8
40.5
40 5
40.9
41 2
41 4
41.3
[H]41.4
40.9
41.1
41.0
p41.0

4 2
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8

3.7 •
' 4.0

3
4
4
3
3
4
4
L
3
4
4
4

8
0
0
9
8
1
0
0
8
0
1
1

L 0

4
4
3
r4
rni'n/

30. Nonagricul- 3. Layoff rate,
tural placements, manufacturing
all industries

(Thous.)

(Per 100
employees)

4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries1

5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs 3

6. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable
goods industries

24. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Bit. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

557
557
569
569
[y]586
561
557
553
551
557
565
543

1.8

135

301

1.9

295
287
283

19

88
118
107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120

552
554
555
557
546
545
541
543
553
575
533
525

1.9
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7

152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
97

*53/
*532
522
*HQ
526

17
18
18
17
17
16
2 0
i /
1 5
17
1 5
16

s?n
523
5D?

516
51 Q

549
51 8

*i90

17
1.8

2 0
2.0

2 1
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.0

t
i
1
i

/
3
3
5

303
305
300
304
299
310

17.70
17.70
17 15
17.02
17.22
16.65
16 91
16. 59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33

3.15
3.30
2 97
3.31
3.10
3.02
3 07
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.16
3 07

310
301
288
293
288
284
281
290
285
282
276
301

18 47
18.23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18.24
18.62
18.11
17.97

3 25
3.21
3 22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3.27
3.61

301
304

116

pc*y

1 Q 11

^ &9

1 r>tz

970

1 Q ^0

q /i

Q#

977
o^c

19 26

3 yA
? Al

122
111

262

90 / A
1Q Q/

1 on

9*57

90 09

118

oAo

91

Q1

oy y
py £

1 Q 3/

9/Q

1 Q A9
-| Q ic.

121
ao
89
1 OQ

26?
9^1

Tin

oy 7
^4^
oy a
0-57

117

9T7

ful 7Q

i 9y

1
3
9
0

548
^97
531
^?Q

i/

/

5/Q

fwlnl
"3
IHjpl.^

"1 / n

JT7IOQ/

541

(NA)

121

oq-i

(NA)

1 O9

ooy

9^

1Q Q"l

90 79

D1

D'?

3 Q3
3 Q9
3 77
r/
3 . 77
3 AQ
q 70
J. (7

3 88
3 Q9

Q QA
J. Vo
SO

91 1 ^

3

91

71

1

fTTjOO

Pi/

/ n&

von
r^U .QQ
77
on QC
r^U .7 5
vOT QQ
piCl.77

O9

„/

r4-Uf\7/
„/

j—I „. y

e\f\

"31*?

OBJP4O f

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by GO. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962, the
3
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

Digitized for24
FRASER


bed

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 1965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Year and month

9. Construction \
contracts, commercial and industrial buildings

(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)

1962

January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
,y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

38.70

42 75
45 90
42.72
44.64

;...

41.16
40 56
42.69
40.96

41.08
42.20

41.89
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00

51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88

50.81
43.73
45.43

51 07
51 05
48 41
53.48
46.22
47.82
52.62
47.72

51.41
53.75

49.61
58.88

53 20
58 12
54 0-4
064 26
56 13
55 28
(NA)

10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment

(Bil. dol.)
3.71
3 98
3 71
3.96
3.76
3.66
3 72
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
4.56

4 38
4 14
L 11
4.36
4.63
4.64
4.52

4.53
4.51
4.56
4.92
4.94
/ 7?
J A7
I #y
1 Qft
fTTl-pC

AO

T\f
P4- "73
fj
CWA 1 )

11. Newlyapproved 7. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing corporations 1

(Bil. dol.)
3 03
2.53

2 81

3.35

2.80

3 30

(Ann. rate,
thous.)
1 470
1 296
1 L22
1 A94
1 515
1,365
1 409
1 531
1,300
1,410
1,634
1 521
1
1
1
1

285
438
486
66?

-i

676

i ^n
1 S7/

3 72

1

4 10

1 676
1 706
1 cqo
1

COO

^99

r~i -i o c o
lit! -L , (JJ

4 39

/Uo
1, r?nA

1/rr-n

9 5 <±

4.81

1 e;nA
1
1 ,/QA.
470
-I

CO "3

1, 57 J
1 i nc

(E15.00

4.52

1

y £Q

"I
-\

/9?
/qc;

1 y#0
1 575

29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits

(1957-59-100) .

38. Index of net
business formation

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

14. Current
liabilities of
business failures

(1957-59-100)

(Number)

(Mil. dol.)

111 9
103.8
106 1
108 7
107 1
109.1
107.2
113.0
112.0

97 2
97 8
98 1
97 8
97 8
97 6
97 7
98 4
98.5
98.5
98.0
98.3

15 599
1 6 768
15 670
15 372
15,245
14,947
15 171
15 056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985

101 53
86 03
77 40
107 15
89 80
93 15
107 98
121 85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99 . 61 •

111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120 0
119 3
116.5
113 5
121 0
123.6
119 9
•123 7

98.9
100.2
100.5
99.2
99 6
100 0
100 7
101 7
101 4
101 7
101 4
101 8

14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15 682
15 536
15,431
16 093
15 689
16,275
15 759
15 867

146.46
93.05
94 12
88 15
115 05
91 07
144 50
[352 86
94 52 '
99 92
255 72
87 17

116 8
[n]124 6

103 1
102 8

16 250
16 018

1 1 Q ?Q

121 7
113 6
112 9
115 1
111 5
113.4
109.7
109.1
110.8
105.4

1 09 Q

1^

10 A L
104 7
103 2
102 5
102.9
105.0
107 0
106.4
106.6

16 180

103 8
109 1

104 o

1 y1 7
"I y A A

119 Q

17*11 r\n q

/ qr
4.72

-] picj p|

i nA A

...

i y 65

119 Pi

1 nc

1

i n y *7

im A
in/
*3
1U4- J

(fa\
UMA;

539

I cni
y."!

CTr

•nl ,y4^
3?j
p.L

-1 piQ

(

1UV.4

rllO. 6
_1 pit} r

•I piC

n

J

1U? .4
1
fMA
VINA;!

QQ9

15 917
15 919
15 979
16,074
16,605
16,493
17,103
17,154

1
± *7
I jti97
I?f\
fTTh 17

T^-r-f
irui /, j)o/

Q1 6Q
n n A/7
107 10
97 92
136 19
125 14
90.99
118.59
97 98
111.00
126.49

&l
CI
04.
94
r

1 C\ fJ . 9
ti*7
1U
f

1 17 -i -i o

i y A 9Q

1 £ cr\ i
lo, :>U4
n10,04-5
A n y "3
1
A b71
Aoi
lb,

i
?Q. no
uv
u?

k/ VWT AA ^J .

rjQ
C-)
f 7* 51

T TC

££

1^9 «Do

1 9D Ay

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by [H]; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5r 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 'V indicates revised; ''p11, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)




25

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
15. Number of
business failures
with liabilities of
$100,000 and over

Year and month

(Number per
week)
37

....

July

August
September
October
November
December

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing

18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations

22. Ratio of profits
to income originating, corporate,
all industries

(1957-59-100)

(Cents)

(Percent)

19. Index of stock 21. Change in
prices, 500 common business inventories
after valuation adstocks*
justment, all industries

(1941-43=10)

Revised1

1962
January
February
March
April
May
June .

16. Corporate
profits after taxes

.

iH]32

30 7

36
38
38

30 9

41
38
45
40
46
42
37

31 5
31 8

49

....

1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

/3

42
40
51
38
39
42
43
4?
38
38
41
41
38
44
39
39
44
40
42
42
42
40
35
40
42
33
47
47
39

31 2
32.6
32.8
33.8

36.7

37 o
37 5
37 8

Revised1

69.07

101 3
101 7
101 8
100.9
101 1
100 4
100 7
100 7
101.9
100 7
101.1
100.5
100 6
100 7
101 2
101 3
101 7
103.2
102.2
101 5
101 6
102 2
101 9
102 2
103 2
103.2
102 7
103 7
103 5
103 5
103 4
103.6
103.0
102.6
103.5
105 0

8.4

9 2

8.1

9 1

8 1

9 1

8.1

9.1

8 1

Q 1

8.5

9.4

8 6

9 3

8 8

9 g

9.0

10.4

8 9

10 5

9.0

10 4

8.7

10.4

fwlQ 8

1*711 1 5

10Z Q

44 0

104 8
10*) 3

• ..

/

70.22
70 29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58 52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
65.06
65 92
65 67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70 98
72.85
73 03
72 62
74.17

76 45
77.39
78 80
79.94
80 72
80.24
83 22
82.00
83.41
84.85
85.44
83 96
86 12
86 75
86 83

+6.7

+6.1

+5 2
+6.4

-*-/ 5

+4 7

+5 8
+8 1

+3.3

+4 1
+3 8
+7 5

LED +8 7

87 Q7

T~\ OS *i
full")//

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

TO n^ i
fijir-i nA ?
r-n nA n

(w/0

(MA\

rrriSQ o&
&c

r\t

&J

Q1

3 &£

Ql

+6 7

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5r 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by (BJ. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

26FRASER
Digitized for


3

Average for August 17, 18, and 19.

bed

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Year and month

1962
January
February
March
April
Mav
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total

20. Change in
book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies 1

37. Purchased
materials, percent
reporting higher
inventories

26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*

32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*

25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

23. Index of industrial materials
prices*

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

(Percent
reporting)

(Percent
reporting)

(Bil. dol.)

(1957-59-100)

;. . .

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

August
September
October
November
December

1964
January
February
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

60

57

56

+0.2
-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7

59
58
54
51
47
44
45
43
46
50
49

61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51

56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
43
48

+0.63
+0.62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91

102 9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8

+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5 1
+6.0
+1 8
+ 5.6
+7 1
+9.6
+7.2

+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7

47
48
47
43
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43

50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55

50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46

+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40

95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7

+3.7
0 0
+3 5
+7.8
+1.6
+1.4
+0.2
+1.0
+7.3
+0.5
+8.7
+11.2

-1.9

42
50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58

53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65

55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65

+0.40
+0.57
+0 16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81

98.5
98 5
98 9
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2

60
61
57

65
65

+6.0
+5 7
+6 0
+2.6
+7 1
+5 6
+3.9
+2.0
+ 5.6
+ 5.5
+1.2
+5 1

+1.9
+3.0
+2,7
+0.8

+11
+3
JH]+11
+10
r+7
P+6

+1 0

-0 5
0 0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0

8
8
8
2
6
9

+1
+0
+2
+5
r+1
p-0

(NA)

0
4
5
3
5
4

(NA)

m]6l
60
58
57

\E\68
67
65
62
62

iH]74

72
70
66

68
72
66
72
70

66
62

{SJ+1.26

+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55

+0
+0
+0
+0
r+0
r+0
r>fO

32
81
44
84
50
23
35

112.0
113.2
112.5
110
110
113
116

6
7
2
7

IHl 1 1 A Q
115 3
11 / A
3

11 5 J

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
~ December 1961.




3

Average for August 16, 17, and 18.

27

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

Year and month

41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments

(Thous.)

42. Total non43. Unemployment
agricultural employ- rate, total 1
ment, labor force
survey1

(Thous.)

40. Unemployment
rate, married
males

(1957-59=100)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

46. Index of help45. Average
wanted advertising
weekly insured
in newspapers
unemployment rate,
State programs2

47. Index of industrial production

(1957-59-100)

1962

January
February
March
April
May
Jung
JU|y

55 657
55,673
55 767
55 802
55,874
55,881

6l 948
62 162
62,234
62,167
62 565
62 693
62,623
63,015
63 , 1 47
63,070
62,921
63,336

55 900
56 044
56,187
56 368
56,511
56,601
56,763
56,768
56,868
57,070
57,101
57,291

63 133
63,230
63,487
63 708
63,613
63,825
64,055
64,089
64,253
64,205
64,371
64,449

5 7
5 9

3 7
3 7

5 7
5 7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.5

3 5
3.4
3.2
3 2
3.1
3.0
3 1
3.3
3.3

4.0

57,334
57,684
57,754
57,827
57,931
58,104
58,256
58,301
58,458
58,382
58,878
59,206

64,685
65,051
65,175
65,695
65,790
65,519
65,632
65,641
65,650
65,658
66,084
66,463

5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
4.9
5 0

3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

1
0
9
8
6
8
7
6
8
9
4
6

4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

59,334
59,676
59,992
59,913
r60 , 110
r60,362
{Hjp60,528

66 771
66,709
66,890
66,874
66,979
67,459
068,092

4 8
5.0
4 7
4.9
4 6
4 7

2
2
2
2

7
6
5
5

3 3
3 1

5/ 695

55 003
55 162
55 411
55 502
55 565
,

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

5
5
5
5

8
5
5
6

5 5

3 7
3 3

3 6
3 7
3 5
3 7

5 5
5 5
5 7
5 6
5 4
5 8
5.5

3
3
3
3

FM!/ 5

3 6

3 7
5
5
5
5

3 /

p *;
p /

IH!P 3

/
/
/
3
3
/
/
/

7
5
/
Q
8
0
?
/,

/ I
L 5

4 6
L 7

/ 8

4
/
/
4
4
4
4

6
/
?
2
1
1
1

4 0
4 1
4 3
3
0
g
8
6
6
6
5
4
4
4
6

q /

11 5 0

115
115
112
10Q
110
108
107
107
107
e!07

el07
el 09
e!08
10Q
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118

116
117
118
120
118
121
124
123
126
127
134

119 1
119 8
119 4

119 8
IPO 6
121 9
1?? 7
1?4.4
1P5.6
1 ?5 . 6
1?5.4
125.7
126.1
1?6.1
1P7.Q
1?7
1?8
1?9
130
111
131
13?
133
134
131
135

7
2
0
5
3
6
9
8
0
2
0

1 17 7

-| Q«

1 "3d

1/5

-i -aq i

(E]14.B

143

p q

1j c

1771 o q

1/6

A

m7

1 37

3 1
Q

316 4
117 5
118 0
lift 9
113 1
119 0
119 0

~-| I c

I

i /n ^
rl /n Q
-| j -|

y

•v,*! / p y
fin-rii y ^ A

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by (HI; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 r 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45)f current low values are indicated
by 03. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benckmark for computing this series.
Prior, to April 1962, the
3
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

Digitized for28
FRASER


bed

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued

Year and month

1962

50. Gross
49. Gross
national product national product
in 1958 dollars in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

Revised1

Revised1

Revised1

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
* ....
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February

519.4

547.8

541.1

527.7

557.2

551.1

533.6

564.4

559.2

538.7

572.0

565.6

541.2

577.0

572.5

544.9

583.1

578 4

553.7

593.1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
2,260.6
2,155.9
2,233 1
2,299 6
2,266 6
2 , 249 . 9
2 311 3
2 268' 8
2,236 7
2,340.7
2,351.5
2,324 9

2,416 2
2,345.9
2,357.2
2 , 472 . 5
2 419 2
2,368 2
2 561 0
2 463 1
2,559 0
2 605 5
2 527 4
2,610 2

587 3

560.0

603.6

595 5

567 1

614 o

Ai n i

575 9

624.2

620 1

582.6

634.8

631 0

564.7

641.1

633 6

597.5

656.4

647.7

ED665.9

(3659.2

[H] 601 . 4

53- Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1
430 7
433 7
/37 2
439 8
440 8
441 8
//3 /
/// 6
447 0
447.9
450.4
452 6

Revised1
114 3
115 5
116 7
118 3
118 0
118.0
118 8
118 7
119.5
118.9
119.7
119 7

456
454
456
457

6
9
7
2

463
464
467
469

1
8
1
3

120
120
120
120
122
123
123

(Mil. dol.)

1
0
8
7
0
0
3

55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods

(1957-59=100)

18,990
19,139
19 320
19 389
19 585
19 311
1Q 658
19 671
19 844
19 837
20,112
20 253

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

20
20
20
20
20
20

387
374
350
276
200
486

8
7
7
7
9
8
9
8
9
9
8
7 •

/73 P
/?/ 7
/78 Q

1 25 1
IPS 7
127 1

20
20
20
21

426
716
558
019

100 5
100 5
100 5
100 4
100 5
100 8
100 Q
100 9
100 8
100 9
100 9
101 1

481 2
y GQ o

i ?A ^

? 5Qn i

21 000

101 1

C-3-2

1 01

9 ^Q'J 1

1 9*7 Q
1 Oft ^

01

/ oy

OT

QQT

2,693.8
2 688 4
2,607 4
2 , 746 . 7
2 681 7
2 755 9
2,771.5
2 730.3
2 803 5

487 7

129 5
1 30 3
1 30 9

21
21
21
21
22
22
21
21
22

392
777
773
935
266
254
383
661
781

im9
101 2
101 1 ' •
101 0
101 2
101 2
101 3
101 5
101 6
101 7

? 571 5

March

April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

57. Final sales 51. Bank debits, 52, Personal
(series 49 minus all SMSA's exincome
series 21)
cept New York
(224 SMSA's)

2,803.3
2,845 1
2,923 8
2 962 0
2 871 5
r3 01 Q /
[Hlp3 021 0

460 o

c

/Ql 2

492
496
499
501
502
506
512

8
1
5
7
8
6
0

515.8
515.7
518.4
520 7
525.3
528.8
in]p530.6

20 71 Q

"123 /

20 666

124 4

131
132
133
132
135
137

5
6
8
6
1
3

137.8
139.0
140.4
139 7
140.6
141 . 5
rrri-nl/2.7

22,900
23 317
22 805
22 865
r23,352
r23,299
fznt>23.759

9

7
9
1
2
3
r!02 6
Opl02 6
102 7
101
101
102
102
102

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and 1(NA", not available.
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




2

Week ended August 17.

29

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators

Year and month

61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total

62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1957-59=100)

64. Book value of
68. Index of labor
manufacturers'
cost per dollar of
real corporate GNP inventories

(Bil. dol.)

(1957-59=100)

65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods

66. Consumer installment debt

(Mil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*

(Percent)

1962

January
February
March
April
May
June

3*>. 70

36.95

July

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

38.35

99.4
99.0
98 8
99.8
99,8
0100 4
100 1
100 2

102 9

36.95

38.05

40.00

100.1
99 5
100 1

99
99
99
98

7
6
1
9

103 4

103 5

103 2

104 2

98.9
97.9
98.8

104 8

99 5

104 7

99.1

41.20

98 6
99 0

104 6

98.6

42 55

43 50

45.65

47 75

Q7 Q
97 9

98
97
97
97
97
97
98
98

4
6
6
7
g
5
2
6

97 9

104 2

104 8

105 2
(El 106 2

96 5

% .7
rj

(ES49 00

a49 60

a50 80

97 1

%

Q

v97
•rQ7
•pQ7
r>Q7

1
?
?
?

19 0

55 7
56 0

19 1
19 1
19.2
19 3
19 L

56.1

99.6

37 95

55 4

i r\c

56
56
56
57
57
57
57
57

4
3
9
0
3
4
6
8

57
58
58
58
58

9
0
1
3
5

19
19
19
19
19

5
7
7
8
8

19
20
20
20

9
0
0
0

20.1

44
44
45
45
45
46
/6

437
826
200
588
838
206
6R9

/7 17/

y& 6n
/"Q 1 ^?

49
50
50
51

593
079
588
069

58
59
59
59
60

9
1
3
8
1

20
20
20
21
21

60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
6l
61
62

0
1
3
5
5
4
5
8
0
8
4

a

n

cq pi p

PI
pi

/
/

C-3

7Q1

c.1

qi c

4
6
6
0
2

y qo

5/ 7P7
c e ppn

...

^ ^qn

/ qa

eA. fi7q

...

21 6

^A e;n&

21 6

67 npl

21 8

A7 9

on y
*£<£. 4

cd Q Ao
po,Vo^
en
An "3
?V,oUj

(MA"!
^IMAJ

5 01

21 6
21 6
a s
21 6

ed pop

ra^A/ ^

% on
*.*

5 00

Q

A/ n
Ay ^

05 0?

5? 7ft /

pp p

63 7

4 99

*5 m
.•>

*n Q/i
5? 3?y

Ap q

...

01

*n /i o

^7 / 31
c»7 nf^p

AQ y

*»

/7 6^9
/ 8 1 *i/

20 3
20.3

4 98

44,017

58.7
58.9

i

(w&}
\N&)

19 5

42 960
43 220
43 53?

pi

QQ
/
<,<..
4
rjjipp c
PP jJ
^
<C<£.
oo 4/
£.£..

p<< . J)
T\OO

^

(WA^
U"*V

An py n
An
oU ,Q&y
Vo4
Al A ^ /
oa,,bp4
IH*I Ao 2po
orA
liUfo^,

y Q^
. >.
£

AA

...

1

y Q ?/
4.7
.. .
4.99

\/ II vMf AA J^

a52 10

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by El; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers arefor identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; (ip", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.


30


bed

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series

Year and month

1962

82. Federal cash
payments to the
public

83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public

84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)

95. Surplus (+), or
deficit (-), Federal
income and product
account

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

Revised 1

Revised1

Revised1

Revised1

January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

109 9
113 5
107 8
108 3
108.6
111 5
113 5
108 1
113 4
113 7
118 6
114 9

102.2
101.8
101.1
105.2
108.6
104.5
110.4
107.7
108.4
107.1
110.1
108.4

-7 7
-11 7
-6 7

112.4
109.6
1-16.6
113.5
116.3
115.3
120.5
121 9
119.9
122.0
119.3
117.2

108.6
109.9
110.5
108.0
114.0
112.7
112.9
116 5
112.6
114.7
114.9
118.1

-3
+0
6
-5
-?
2
-7
-^
-7
-7

125 9
119 2
120 4
122.6
119.1
116.7
122.7
121.6
117.9
118.4
112.9
126.5

115 9
120 5
117 1
121.4
108.7
113.8
113.9
111.7

121.8
121.8
117.4
125.2
128.8
133.0
pl!9.9

'

-5 0

-3.1

0.0
7 0
-3 1

-4.6

-0.4
-5.0

-2.6

-6 6
-8 5
6 5

8
3
1
5
3
6
6
/
3
3

-L L
+0 9

10 0
+1 3

-3 3
-1.2
-10.4
-2.9
-8.8
-9.9
-4.9
-3.3

113.0
115.1
114.9
114.5

-12.0

+2.0

114.0

-7 8

120.1
124.5
153 5

-1.7
+7.1

+28 3

119 9
119 4
p!21 8

-13.6
p+1 9

-8.9

90. Defense
91. Defense
Department obliga- Department obligations, procurement tions, total

(Mil. dol.)
1
1
1
1
1

758
228
410
791
039

1 311

-3 2

-2 5

+1 8

+0 6

+1 2

-2 6

•-7.6

-3.6

-1.1

+2.5

pn-2.9

(Mil. dol.)
L /3/

4
4
4
3
4

086
421
477
999
082

1 657
1 395
1,040
1 675
1 787
1,205

L 517

1 586
1 206
1 366
1,215
1 358
1 363
1,132
1 700
1,207
2,010
1 094
1,273

4,632
L 137

1 075
1 ft/ 3
1 237
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494
803
1,141
889
1,089
1,870

4 351

966
603
1,735
1,557
1,567
(NA)

4 385
3,892
L *53'5
4 920
4,140

4,233
4,078
4 507
4,481
4,349
4 580
4,160'
5,112
4,093
4,371

92. Military prime
contract awards to
U.S. business firms

(Mil. dol.)
3 073
? 1 3S
? ??S
2 062
1 887
1 Q30
2 017
2 149
2 111
? 983
2 73Z
1,984

2 198
? /35
2 154
1,966
2 240
2 334
2 419
? 733
2 578
2,086
1 681
2,079

4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325

2 149
? fiSQ
1 5Q8
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883

4,278
3,839
4,624
4,593
4,630
(NA)

1,830
1,628
1,874
2,926
2,025
2,438

S 317
/ 1 33

(NA)

NOTE: Sends are seasonally adjusted except those-that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




31

TABLE

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products

93. Free reserves*

(Bit. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

Year and month

1962

January
February
March
April
May
June

1.99
2.05

JU|y

2 07
1 94

August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May. . . .
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268

2.11
2.24
2.24
2.08

1.88
2.09
1.70
2.53

+375
+301
+269

2,89

2 09
2 42
1 97

+ 31 3

+247
+138
+161

2.40
1.90
2.40

85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised1
0.00
+2.52
+1 68
+4.08
-3 24
+0 84
-0 84
-0 84
-1 68
+4 92
+4 08
+4 92

Revised1
+7.32
+11.52

96
56
40
12
00
80
52
8A
40
SA
28
*iA

2 37

-t-i m

4-O

Oft

4-39
+ J5<

•3 py

IIP
*i rjfy

1 L.

•pp q-i
r>9 An

-1 7o

_ 1 &t
_

-1 1-7/1

p-JL 7o

37 730

48 972

39 040

48 536

ZO ?Q6

I / ApS
* * *

33 AQ?
...
38 6^2

+ S CV

+4 08
U SA
+9 48
+8 40
+10 80

^7 T / f t

+3
+1
+2
+3
0
+7
+8
+3
+8
+/
+2
+/

i

O

Oft

/

E£

, A np|
-1 X

8 .16
j-T "3 J I
+13.44

p+5.16

(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)

53 388

idftfl

+175
+89
+99
+167
+82
+120
+135
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168

y»p

+8 76
+1 56
+6 12

^6 Ql6

2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
1.87

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

+9 36

+6 24
+7 08
4-Q nn

+94
+33
+209

112. Change in
business loans

36,664

24
96
36
40
40
5?
08
84

1.92
1.97
1.48

111. Corporate
gross savings

43,480

+8 76
+8 76
+7 20

+133

7A

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

08
92
56
08

2 36
2 47

o 11
2 46

110. Total private
borrowing

+4
+4
+1
+4
+3
+3
+6
+2
+2
+5
+7
-0

+91

98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits

yn 37P
...

58 772

39 892

52 448

44 POO

6A ^p/
...

/ £ nAy,
...

67 SA8
...

/*) /Afi
...

An ?ny

y y A7A

_i_y e£

16
88
44
76
Qp

4-Q 7P

4-Q

1 ft

+ft *}P

_i_ft ny
+8 88
+10, 44
+7.92
, /

/ ^ o o/r
r65,236

.

r49,124

+O.VD

+9.00
0.00

4.3 ny
+?
+4
+5
+5

08
66
?2
78

+ 3 AS
+1 4?
4-3
+ /,
4,q
4,y

17
9^
an
qi

4>J

7A

4-y PA
4.1 y 3
4>n 35
4- ft A9

Q/L

+12.60
pn-9.72

4,9 /n
+2 35

4-1 7Q

+8 76
4-Q 1 P

/P

+1 85

+1 74

i & ^A

+8
+5
+4
+5
U

4-1

4-1 Q7

y ft

-4-1 1 ny

+2.09
+2 09
+2 77
+2 66
+ 3 85
+2 82
+2 82
+2 28
+0 95
+1 A3

-4-7 Aft

4-A

+2 90
+1 51
+2 23

p73,740

p49,040

+12.35
+13.14
+12.46
+6.32
+11.04
14-11.38
+9.89

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and rdo not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 4'r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a' , anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

Digitized for
32FRASER


bed

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued

Year and month

113. Net change in
consumer installment debt

114. Treasury bill
rate*

115. Treasury bond
yields*

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

;..„

1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
JU|y

August
September
October
November
December
1964
January

•

March

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1965
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*

(Percent)

(Percent)

86. Exports excluding military aid
shipments, total

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.).

i AA& i

4 08
4 09
4 01
3 89
1 88
3 90
4 02
3 98
3.94
3 89
3 87
3.87

L 55
L 5A

i i/,
i ?i

4 42
4 31
4 26

IT/

+4.49
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+ 5.82

2 75
2 75
2 72
2 74
2 69
2 72
2 94
2.84
2.79
2 75
2.80
2.86

+5.82
+5.94
+ 5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+ 5.83
+6.11
+5.77
+4.09
+6.37
+4.60
+5.52

2.91
2 92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3.00
3 14
3.32
3.38
3 45
3 52
3.52

3.89
3 92
3.93
3.97
3 97
4.00
4 01
3 99
4.04
4 07
4 11
4.14

4.22
4 25
4 26
4.35
4 35
4 32
4 34
4 33
4.40
4 36
4 42'
4 49

3 10
3 15
3 05
3.10
3 11
3 21
3 22
3 13
3 20

5
5
5
5

5 45

1 958 2

1 20

5 /5

1 Q67 5

3 30
3 27

5 45
5 45

1 965 6
2 090 8

+5 14
+6 95
+6 29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
+ 5.80
+5.22
+6.16
+4.92
+3.61
+6.72

3 53
3 53
1 55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.51

4 15

L AQ
L 18

5 /5
5 /5
5 / 5

? 0/2 Q

5.45
5.45
5.46
5 46
5.46
5-45
5.45
5.45

2 . 061 . 8

+8.04
+7.69
+7.64
+8.93
+8.04
+7.22

5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.44
5.44

1,217.3
1,592.7
2,752.7
2,380.3
2,277.7
2,184.8

+2 23
+3 12
+3 74
+ 5.82
+5 04
+4 67

(NA)

/ 10

4 41
4 39
4 28
4 27
4 23
4.28

3 06
1n
3 26
3 28
3 23
3 11
3 02
3 04
3.07

/ /5

3.53
3.58
3.62
3.86

4 18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.13
4.14
4.16
4.16
4.12
4.14

4.49
4.48
4.49
4.43
4.43
4.49
4.49
4.47
4.47

3 22
1 1/
1 ?ft
3.28
3.20
3.20
3.18
3.19
3.23
3.25
3.18
3.13

3.83
3.93
3.94
3.93
3.90
3.81
3.83

4.14
4.16
4.15
4.15
4.14
4.14
4.15

4.44
4.44
4.49
4.48
4.52
4.57
4.57

3.06
3.09
3.18
3.15
3.17
3.24
3.27

L ~\.L

5
5
5
5
15

69
68
65
6/
6n

5 5Q

5 58

1 &OQ ^

i £7? n
1 7Q5 I
1 7Al 7
1 #15 A

5 57

1 7/8 1
1 702 5

5 56

1 907 9

5 55

1 5/2 8

5 54
5 53

1 724 6
1,838 7

52
48
47
46

5 /5

5 45
5 A5
5 45

5.45

985 7
? 121 6
1 957 8
1,913 7
1 8Q5 ?
1 803 1
1 840 8
1 92? 1

2 046 2

? 07 / n
2,061.1

2,034 2
2,122.9
2 108 8

2,235 3
2,154.8
2,196.8
2,430.4

(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.




33

TABLE

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
87. General imports, total
Year and month

(Mil. dol.)

88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)

(Mil. dol,)

81. Index of con89. Excess of
receipts {+) or
sumer prices
payments (-) in U.S.
balance of payments

(Mil. dol.)

(1957-59=
100)

96. Manufacturers'
94. Index of construction contracts, unfilled orders,
durable goods invalue
dustries

(1957-59=
100)

(Bit. dol.)

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing1

(Bil. dol.)

1962
January
F6bmary
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1 326 5
1 319 8
1 341 7 •
1,365 0

1,404.1
1
1
1
T
1

350 7
34.6 6
345 9
/71 L
312 1

+341 8

+489 5
" +330.3
+430 , 4
+357.6
+484 9

-792
-267

+401 7

+356 6
+A36 5
+230 7

-433

1 /?/ Q
1 376 5

+?QQ 7

-711

1,099.9
1,510.4
1,484.8
1,414.6
1,416.3
1,430.9
1,449.5
1,497.3

-114.2
+613.2

+462 2

104,7
104.9

115
119
131

45.80
46.42
45.75

121

45.41

117 '

44.95
44.58
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58

105.1
105.3
105.4
105 4
105,3
105.5
105 9
105 8
105 8
105 9

120
117
118
113
117
123
138

106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7

121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148

45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.08
46.68

11.02

107 8
107.7
107 8
108.0
108 1
108 1
108 1
108 2
108 3
108 4
108 6
108 9

147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136

47.07
47.64
47.80

1P.08

1/3
1 *i/

53 /I

109 o

1 37
1 /O
1 y-i
i eo

r
)l 9ft
ec OQ
ee eq
K£ -27
r-^A AS
Y,e»7 i A
~.£fj i e
pP / . 4D

8.44

8.32

a. 26

43 18

44.09

8.81

1963
January
February
March
April
May
: **
June
July
August
September ...
October
November
December

1,443 3

1,455.4
1,465.5
1,479.8

+473 0
+499 . 1
+478.9
+372.2

-1,199
-1,108

+391 . 3

+424.8
+514.9
+512.1
+500.1
+6il.O

-210
-153

8.88
9.38

10.05

47.17

1964
January.
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1 , 434 . 4
1 , 460 . 3

1,519.5
1,540.6

+608 5
+585.9
+554 5
+520.5

1,539 4

1,518.4

+ 522 4
+515 8

1 578 1

+544 8

1,574.9

+ 533 9

1
1
1
1

S/6 /
547 7
697 7
642 2

+688 9
+607 1

1
1
1
1

206 4
600 5
869 0
834 7

+10 9
7 8

1 7Q8 Q

1 834 8
fNA)

+AQQ 1

-257 .
-582
-593

-1 366

+788 2

+883 7
-t-^A'i 6
+478 8
+ 3^0 0

(NA1)

r AQ1
1.1

1 OQ 0
-i nq -i
"IOQ 5

n4-?Q&

1 OQ Q
11O 9
(M/O
UMA;

T / C

1 *3Q
(Wft\\

U"AJ

48 . 84
49 . 22

50.04
51 30
51.37
52 14
53 14
53 96

13.23

14 54
14 97

***
1 e K&
...

fU^AJ
Iff/1 ^

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a"f anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Data prior to 196l not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICB publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropria'tions: First Quarter 1965.)-




bed

BASIC DATA

AUGUST 7965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
47. United
123. Canada,
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion

Year and month

1962
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

(1957-59=
100)
115
116
118
118
118
118
119
119
120
119
120
119
120
121
122
123
124

126
126
125
126
126
126
127

..

128
128
129
130
131
132
133
134

134
131
135
138
13S
139
140
141
141
142
p!44

(1957-59=
100)

122. United
121. OECD, 1
Kingdom, index European counof industrial 1 tries, index of
production
industrial
production
\
(1957-59=
100)

l

(1957-59=
100)

120
120

108
110
111
110
113
HZ
113
114
115
110
113
110

122
124
123
124
125
12A
125
126
127
127
128
127

120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131

110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
11-7
120
121
121

133
134
133
135
133
133
134
135
135
136
139
140

123
123

142
141
143
142
p!43
(NA)

113

115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119

125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

(1957-59=
100)
126
129
125
128

126. France,
index of industrial production

(1957-59=
100)

149
i 51

124
123

1 A9
151
1 53
1 LI
151

1 29

125
125
126
128
128
126

127
126
127
130
1 31
132
132
132
134
135
136
136

129
128
132
133

127
"1P5
116
129

1 33

1 33
1 3/
129
1 P9
136

124
123
123
122
123
123
128
128
129

139
139
140
139
141
139
138
137
140
144
143
143

142
144
1/5
140
150
143
147
145
145
r!49
r!49
r!49

r!42
r!42
r!39

r!30
r!29
r!28
129
p!29
(NA)

r!45
146
143
145
pi 46
(NA)

156
155
150
r!54
r!55
p!53
(HA)

138
140
139
141
140
p!42
(NA)

1P3

(1957-59=
100)

122
1 P3

130
130
131
132
132
133
132

139
134
136
136
138
140
1 39

127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production

1 ?3

(1957-59=
100)
182
178
181
181
182
130
179

149
150
153
158
160

180
181
179

158

179
184
184

1 55

161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171

17Q

178

1QO

173

203
POP
207
211
PI /

1 3&

170

217

140

139

172
169

1 3Q

173

141

168
166
164
166
156
165
rl64
166
166

219
??/
??/
226
r228
r233
r232
r232
239
r241
237
r242

137
1 36

140
141
132
132

141

rl66
169
165
rl69
p!73
(NA)

242
237
244
r240
p234
(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.




35




Section TWO

charts and tables

DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—27 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—77 industries
Profits—700 companies
Sfock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 types of sfores
Nef sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carfoadings—79 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES




37

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST 1965

DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS

Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached

Current expansion
Apr.
1965

Business cycle peak

June
1965

May
1965

Nov.
1948

July
1965

July
1953

May
1960

July
1957

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
6
1

7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month

7

7

2
1
5
5
4

2
1
3
4
3
4

15

6

9
1
5
1
2

1

.2
1
5
9

Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

24
17

24
38

"4
2
2
2
2
1

16
6

24
17

"i

24

16
2
1
2
3

24
0

24
0

2
1
^0
0

2

21
5

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month

1

2

1

"i
1
3
4

1
1

5
5

1
1
9

2
8

1

11
45

11
82

11
73

11
82

.

Percent of series high on benchmark date
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached

9

Apr.
1953

3

**2
3

"3
3

"i

'*2
3

11
27

11

4

11
27

36

6th month before business cycle peak
Nov.
1959

Jan
1957

Jan.
1953

May
1948

Feb.
1960

Apr.
1957

"i
"3
1

11
0

3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948

1

2

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

4

13
2

4
2

2

2

21
5

9
1

13
2

"i
2
1
2
3

1
2
1

"i
20
5

"i

2
5

'*4

X

21

1
1
1
1
4
1
2
3
7

**5
2

'*3

24
0

24
0

X

20
15

2

21
33

18

"i
2

*'i
2

6
7
3
2
2

"i
2
1

24
0

24
4

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

8 months or more
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date

2

1

2

1
"1

1

1

1

2

i
"i

4
2
1

i

1

"i

**3

"i

"i

2

'*5

4

3
2

"4
5

3
5

3
6

"4

6

4

3

11
55

11
36

11
18

11
45

11
45

11
55

11
36

11
27

NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
series were not available.
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.
.

X
4
2


38


bed

AUGUST 7965

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators

ial claibis, State unemdl. insur.-47 ar




•

jLWiMillp^

CHART

CHART

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST 1965

bed

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

40



Percent

D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments-30 Indus.
(6-mo. s p a n —

1-mo. spafi —)

047. Industrial produdion-24 Indus.
(6-m;o. spanj—

i

1-mo. span —)

D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods-23 indus.
(6-mo, span|j-—

1-mp, spqn —) . . :

n 100
50
0

D54. Sale$ of retail stores -24
(9-mo. spanj—

types of stores

1-mo. span —)

so
0

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST 7965

CHART

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
{SB,}

s>

Percent

D35. Net sales, all mfrs.-800 cos.
( 4 Q sparf

|D36. New orders, dur. goods n|fr$.-r400 cos
(4yQ span!)

D48. Carloadings-19 mfrd. commodity groups
(4-Q span)

D48. Change in total cartoadings
(TtiiHionsH>f cars-4-Q spah)

061. New plant]end equipment expend,-17-22 indus.
(1-Q span

Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D 3 5 t D 3 6 ( A p r . 1965)
D48 (June 1965)

D61 (May 1965}

Actual

1st Q 1964 - 1st Q 1965
3rd Q 1963 - 3rd Q 1964
4th Q 1964 - 1st Q 1965

Anticipated

3rd Q 1964 - 3rd Q 1965
3rd Q 1964- 3rd Q 1965
2nd Q 1965 - 3rd Q 1965

1 1




41

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators

Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)

D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)

OIL Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICE (17 industries)1

Year and month
1-month span

9-month span

1-month span

9-month span

1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November ........
December

21.4
61.9
85.7
76.2
28.6
31.0
38.1
54.8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7

85.7
83.3
50.0
23.8
52.4
54.8
42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0

36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2

1963
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

76.2
50.0
61.9
14.3
85,7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3

61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.*2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8

63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5

88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8

4.8
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14.3
76.2
64.3
92.9

85.7
50.0
52.4
73.8
33.3
85.7
. 73.8
88.1
78.6
78.6
95.2
59.5

55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1

76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63.9
61.1
68.1

52.4
59.5
76.2
19.0
83.3
rl6.7
P54.8

r?6.2
r78.6
P69.0

48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44.4
r54.2
P59.7

r77.8

1964
January
February
March
April
•
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
'. . .
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

63.9
52.8 -

77.8
63.9
- 63.9
47,2
47.2
45.8
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4

3-quarter span

1-quarter span

65

47

'29

*76

*76

*53

*59

*74

47

53

*59

*53

*53

'65

*65

*76

53

76

*56

71

*53

*U

*32

59

76

(NA)

72.2

P79.2

(NA)

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for. most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICB publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)


42


bed

AUGUST

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

1965

TABLE

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued

Year and month

D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span

1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January. . . .
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

54
47
*48

*56

50

'59
'56

'55

1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September

*60

October

'56

November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

57

*57

55
'59

D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
stocks (80 industries) l
1-month span

25.6

9-month span

1-month span

9-month span

D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas)
1-month span

9-month span

75.0
47.5
8.7
1.2
1.2
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4

17.5
6.2
7.5
3.1
3.7
2.5
1.2
3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
,95.0

53.8
46.2
46.2
42.3
42.3
46.2
23.1'
30.8
50.0
53.8
53.8
53.8

38.5

30:8
30.8
38.5
23.1
15.4
30.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
46.2
61.5

46.8
76.6
38.3
48.9
46.8
19.1
63.8
61.7
42.6
36.2
72.3
36.2

80.9
55.3
48.9
36.2
46.8
44.7
38.3
27.7
27.7
53.2
74.5
53.2

97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4

95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4

61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7

61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9

34.0
89-4
31.9
47.9
46.8
68.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4

44.7
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4

74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24-0

83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6

53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73-1
61.5
38.5

61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2

89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0

73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74-5
72.3

92.2
81.8
64.3
70.8
66.9
0.0
24.7

80.5
58.4
51.9

53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
3
38.5

69.2
76.9
61.5
S
61.5

24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0

78.7
78.7
59.6

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
lr
rhe diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963;
components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
^ Average- for August 16, 17, and 18.




on 79

43

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST 1965

bed

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators

Year and month

D41. Number of employees in
nonagricuftural establishments
(30 industries)

D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)

D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
1-month span

9-month span

D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)

1-month span

6-month span

1-month span

6-month span

1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November ........
December

65.0
75.0
75.0
86,7
60.0
53.3
61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
48.3
43.3

86.7
88.3
81.7
78.3
73.3
71.7
51.7
45.0
41.7
35.0
43.3
50.0

25.0
87.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
66.7
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4

79.2
70.8
91.7
77.1
83.3
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5

58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7

87.5
91.7
91.7
89.6
89.6
72.9
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3

67.4
52.2
58.7
60.9
47.8
41.3
41.3
28.3
43.5
32.6
56.5
30.4

60.9
63.0
58.7
5/^.3
58.7
43.5
32.6
41.3
37.0
30.4
26.1
26.1

1963
January
February
March
April
May
, **
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

65.0
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53.3
80.0

60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3

'79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1

83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
72.9
83.3
83.3

50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1

70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1

41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
67.4

32.6
47.8
5S.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6

53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88.3
78.3

75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
75.0
91.7
86.7
80.0
90.0
90.0

58.3
79.2
70,8
83.3
70.8
62.5
79.2
68.8
43.8
66.7
70.8
79.2

91.7
95.8
85.4
91.7
87.5
87.5
81.2
68.8
87.5
83.3
87.5
91.7

43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
45.8
52.1
37.5
64.6
62.5
62.5

79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
75.0
68.8
83.3
81.2
60.4
62.5

63.0
67.4
52.2
71.7
34. B
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
60.9
52.2
60.9

69.6
69.6
69.6
54.3
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6

66.7
81.7
86.7
58.3
r58.3
r88.3
P78.3

83.3
r71,7
r78.3
P 88.3

75.0
62.5
77.1
r58.3
r62.5
r83.3
p8l.2

r83.3
r85.4
83.3
p79.2

50.0
72.9
20.8
62.5
83.3
r43.8
P85.4

75.0
r83.3
P91.7

63.0
60.9
67.4
71.7
60.9
60.9
p60.9

76.1
80.4
78.3
p76.1

1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

83.3

1-month span

6-month span

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on
the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for the indexes
shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

Digitized for44
FRASER


>cd

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST 7965

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes

Year and month

D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)

D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)

D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)

D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)

4-quarter span

4-quarter span

4-quarter span

1-quarter span

Actual

1962
January
February
March
April
Mav
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
April
May
i *
June
July
August
September
October . . .
November
December

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Change in
total (000)

'so

"88

'76

'si

57.9

94^7

-68

"76

'so

'74

'74

63 .'2

89^5

-96

72

'74

71

'70

42.1

68!i

-67

'74

*82

'76

"76

63'.2

63.2

+29

*76

'so

"77

'76

73^7

78^9

+39

'74

"so

*76

"76

57.9

68^4

+44

82

'si

*82

"so

78.9

78.9

+21

*84

"85

*82

"si

6S.'i

73.7

-39

'83

'87

'si

"si

84.2

68^4

rs-26

*82

"86

"si

"si

(NA)

94-7

+68

"83

*87

'si

"si

89.5

+ 51

*85

89^5

+49

'si

84.2

P-2

(NA)

1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

*88

*88

(NA)

Actual

Anticipated

65.6

62.5

6S.*8

6s!e

65^6

65.*6

46.*9

68^8

40.6

50.0

65^6

75^0

75.0

71^9

71.9

75.*6

71.9

50.0

62.' 5

50.0

84^4

75.0

96.9

68!8

56.2

65.6

(NA)

6s!s

7s!i

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago),
require no seasonal adjustment. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.




45

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST 7965

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1964

1965

iffusion index title and components
June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Average weekly hours
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING^
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
;. .
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries , .
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products

40.6

40.6

40.8

40.5

40.5

41.4

40.9

41.1

41.0

41.0

40.6
39.9
41.5
41.4
42.4
40.3
42.6
40.9
39.5

40.4
40.3
41.0
41.5
41.5
41.6

40.4
40.4
41.2
41.3
42.2
41.7

40.0
39.4
40.5
41.1
42.8
41.3

41.4
40.7
42.0
41.7
42.5
42.7

41.0
40.5
41.2
41.2
43.6
41.6

42.5
40.6
42.6
41.0
40.0

42.0

43.4
41.3
43.6
41.6
40.0

42.1

40.3
42.3
•40.9
39.1

40.4
42.3
40.5
39.4

41.7
40.8
41.7
41.8
42.0
42.2
43.0
41.1
42.9
41.7
39.8

41.7
39.6
41.5
41.5
.42.2
41.9
42.9
40.9
43.0
41.4
39.6

42.5
40.2
41.3
41.5
42.6
41.7

42.4
40,6
41.7
41.0
39.8

40.6
39.7
41.2
41.5
41.9
41.4
42.0
40.7
40.5
40.9
39.7

40.9
39.0
40.9
36.0
42.7
38.4
41.4
41.6
41.2
37.9

40.6
39.6
40.8
36.0
42.9
38.4
41.4
41.6
40.7
37.9

40.8
38.4
41.2
35.9
43.0
38.6
41.3
42.1
41.8
37.9

40.7
37.0
40.0
34.9
42.7
38.5
42.1
42.5
41.3
37.7

41.0
39.3
41.4
36.2
42.9
38.6
41.6
41.6
41.6
38.5

41.0
38.8
42.0
36.8
43.2
38.5
41.8
42.2
42.4
38.3

40.8
35.941.3
35.8
42.4
38.5
42.4
42.7
41.1
38.3

40.9
37.6
41.5
36.6
43.1
38.5
42.0
42.3
41.6
38.4

40.8
37.2
41.4
36.4
43.0
38.5
41.7
42.2
41.6
37.6

40.9
38.0
41.3
36.3
43.1
38.4

41.1
41.4

42.9
40.8
43.0
41.5
39.8

41. a

42.0
41.5
38.0

Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
}
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
Metalworking machinery *
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*. . . .
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *

20,016
1,943

21,254
3,539
2,077

19,342
3,280
1,825

19,907
3,847
2,296

19,623
3,767
2,203

21,714
3,593
2,018

22,043
3,456
1,876

20,992
3,286
1,632

20,947
3,462
1,817

2,013

• 2,069

1,946

2,045

1,991

2,065

2,098

2,027

2,025

(NA)

3,030

2,909

2,952

203

281

2,923
219

2,994
175

3,100
166

3,107
156

3,106

248

142

3,113
153

(NA)

524
233

542
206

528
205

520
183

566
221

598
213

581
222

601
208

205

(NA)
(NA)

211

224

211

211

202

245

285

258

230

(NA)

3,472

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.

Digitized for46
FRASER


-^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.

566

21,990
3,478
(NA)

(NA)

NA Not available.

bed

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST 1965

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change
1-month spans
1964

Diffusion index title and components

9-month spans
1964

1965

•*-

>

t?

c

-a

:=

•-

>*

=

76

64

93

52

60

76

19

83

17

1965

§ 1 2 -s I I * I 1 1
J'sIIi-fila-l'l i £ i £ ! | i > f £ £
o S 9 ^ £ | S - l - ? . = i

DL AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries ...
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
,
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products . . .

0

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

4

.

4

-

4

+

-

55

-

+

-

+

+

0

+

-

+

0

+

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

0 -

-

+

+

O

+

-

O

-

+

O

+

O

+

-

+
-

+

+

-

O
"

0

86 74 88 79 79 95 60 76 79 69
+ + + + + + + + + +
+

+ +
--

+
+

+
-

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+
+

+
+

- -

+

- 0

+

-

+

0

+

+

_

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

--

o

+

+

+

+

0

+

+

-

+

--

-

+

+

+

+

+

0

+

4-

+

o

+

+

-

+

f - -

+

. - o

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

--

+

O

-

+

+

+

O

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

0

+

+

O

+

O

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

--

O

-

+

0

+

0

-

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

-

0

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

-

-

+
+

+

+
-

+
+

+

+

-

+

+

+

0

+

-

+

-

+

+

'

+

O

+

+

+

-

-

--

0

0

0

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

0

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

_

_

_

_

.

+

-

+

- -

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

--

+

O

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

0

- "

0

+
+

+

0

+
+

+
+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

0

+

+

-

O

+

+

0

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+
---

O

-

+

-

-

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

f +

f

-

Q

+

+

+

- -

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals

58 56 68 49 39
-+ + -

.
. .
•

Fabricated metal products:
Hardware structural metal and wire products
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction mining and material handling *
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
.
...
Service industry machinery *

,
,
<
,

64 50 44 54 60
+ + -+

-+ +
_
+

+ - +
» - +
. - _ _

+
+

+
_

+
+

+

-

-

-

-

+

-

+

+

+
-

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
-

+
+

+

+
+
--

+

+

-+ +

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

_

-

+

-

--

+
+
+
+
+
-

+

+
+

+
-_
+
+
+
-

_

+
+
+
-

+
-+ -

-

+

+

0

-

4

-

+

+

-

+

-

+

--

-0

-+
+
+
+

+
+

+

_
+
+
+

--

O

+

+ + + - +
-+
- + +
-+ -

+

-

+

+

--

+ +
+ _-

+
+
+
+
-

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
-

--

+
+

+ + - - • - + + + + + +
-+
---+ + +

+

-

+

+

+
+

+
-

+
+

-+ -

-

+

_

+

+

+

+

_
-

+

+

+
-

-- +

-

_

_

o

-

-

0

+

+

-

+

+

4

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

_

+

_

+

4-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

_

+

_

4

+

,

+

-

4

+

+

f

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-i- - rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of chan ge are computed even though data are held confidential.
comprise series 24.




58 64 83 72 64 61 68 78 72 79
-+ + + + + + + +

*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that

47

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST 1965

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964

1965

Diffusion index title and components
June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Mar.

Oct.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.1

Millions of dollars
D6, VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES2- Continued
Electrical machinery
2,448
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
\ 574
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
602
X
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*.
Transportation equipment
5,364
Motor vehicle parts
,
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft

2,807

2,694.

2,581

2,542

2,711

2,929

2,801

2,863

(NA)

590

638

557

585

604

602

603

667

(NA)

708

609

618

549

529

701

659

689

(NA)

4,760

4,544

6,301

6,453

5,878

5,621

6,126

116.7

116.9

115.3

114.6

115.4

.414
.073
38.600
1.910

.426
.076
36.055
1.894

.418
.075
35.677
1.867

.449
.074
31.339
1.930

.152
.151
.146
.147
.303
.303
.206
.207
1.642
1.643
.156
.158
.162
11.652 11.629 11.733
,268
.272
.265
.081
.079
.079

.150
.145
.304
,212
1.695
.164
11.919
.260

.149
.148
.302
.211
1.724
.190
11.581
.255
.073

6,218

4,771

Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total . . . .
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)

Index: 1957-59-100

industrial materials price index

101.4

102.5

105.7

108.2

112.0

113.2

Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zinc (Ib.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average.
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib)

...

Rosin (100 Ib.)

Rubber (Ib)
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(24 retail store components)
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores

.298
.056
35.728
1.510

.308
.055
39.165
1.619

.339
.056
40.157
1.660

.362
.061
35.933
1.866

.402
.062
38.322
2.075

.382
.074
37.328
1.661

.413
.075
36.929
1.819

.140
.141
.117
.113
.327
.323
.181
.180
1.706
1.693
.146
.146
12.164 11.970
.249
.248
.062
.059

.140
.124
.315
.183
1.732

,.140
.125
.311
.186
1.727

.145
.125
.310
.190
1.746

.150
.133
.305
.200
1.598

.152
.143
.304
.204
1.651

.146
11.946
.250
.066

.147
11.874
.260
.073

.142
11.826
.264
.073

.149
11.803
.262
.080

.080

Millions of dollars
21,773

21,935

22,266

22,254

21,383

22,805

22,865

23,352

23,299

4,704

4,769

4,743

4,755

4,736

4,809

4,910

4,904

4,959

(NA)

1,623
1,533
200
427

1,642
1,580
192
443

1,633
1,630
205
439

1,600
1,516
192
427

1,637
1,568
198
429

1,699
1,666
208
454

1,741
1,676
197
432

1,767
1,753
210
472

1,751
1,668
205
466

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

244

257

269

261

259

253

254

263

252

(NA)

23,759

NOTE: Qata are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
•'•Average for August 16, 17, and 18.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency,
3
Series components are seasonally adjusted t»y the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments",
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.

48




TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST ,965

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans

1964

9-month spans

1964

1965

1965

Diffusion index title and components

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment * ..
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery4*Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations ..
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*.
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total ...!'!! !'.M!!!!!!!!!!
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
*!.
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index

+

-

73

62

38

54 31

69 77

54 58 46

Copper scrap (Ib.).
Lead scrap (Ib.) ..
Steel scrap (ton)..
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb.)
,
Burlap (yd,)
,
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
,
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.)
Rosin (100 Ib.)...,
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(24 retail store components)
Percent rising .
65 62 62 50 73 21 62 83
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise). Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
-.

85

38

81

83

+ = rising; o,= unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
comprise series 24.

+

+

+

+
+

+
+

+

+

.+

+

+

+

--

85 77

69

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

69 77

69

69 77

62

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

75

69

83

81 60

62

75

83

92

62

"Denotes machinery and equipment industries that

1
Average for August 16, 17, and 18.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.




49

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

AUGUST 1965

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964

1965

Diffusion index title and components
June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV, radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers ....
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
'.
Jewelry stores
....
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores

522

509

519

504

512

513

499

519

519

(NA)

218
735
373
765
227

217
709
398
732
222

224
719
375
711
227

206
679
388
729
237

210
703
385
741
242

210
720
374
746
224

205
706
380
738
230

224
720
365
791
239

219
745
370
817
231

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

3,645
240
1,683
721

3,755
234
1,701
726

5,025
234
1,690
722

4,301
230
1,695
734

3,265
230
1,722
739

4,352
240
1,774
748

4,204
251
1,798
760

4,279
259
1,818
749

4,319
241
1,819
761

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

503

495

494

499

503

504

512

525

513

(NA)

1964
Sept.

Oct.

1965

1965

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

Mar.

Apr.

May

59,913

60,110

June

July

Thousands of employees
D.41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGR1CULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products . . ,
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing . ,
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade . . . ,

58,458

58,382

58,878

59,206

102
528
339
498
1,022
901
1,146
1,053
942
232
326

102
532
340
500
1,038
933
1,145
1,065
1,156
235
330

100
536
344
501
1,041
951
1,165
1,078
1,181
237
333

59,334
100
533
345
503
1,044
964
1,166
1,086
1,207
238
332

59,992

103
530
338
500
1,026
945
1,149
1,049
1,180
234
323

100
544
352
508
1,047
957
1,179
1,113
1,237
241
337

99
535
353 .
504
1,043
982
1,180
1,125
1,247
243
338

101
531
352
500
1,037
981
1,186
1,130
1,251
240
335

1,133
71
803
1,173
494
606
530
116
340
313

1,132
78
803
1,173
494
604'
526
116
334
312

1,151
80
808
1,181
496
605
530
114
337
315

1,154
76
812
1,186
495
610
532
113
339
315

1,150
74
817
1,196
495
611
536
113
343
315

1,147
72
824
1,199
500
616
539
114
354
318

1,124
73
824
1,207
501
617
538
113
356
316

634
3,080
4,005
3,226
9,003

638
3,106
3,996
3,233
9,045

639
3,162
3,997
3,246
9,065

637
3,244
4,020
3,259
9,103

633
3,235
3,939
3,270
9,177

633
3,304
4,042
3,303
9,319

629
3,186
4,044
3,318
9,245

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.

1

50 FRASER
Digitized for


60,362
103

60,528

531
353
500
1,068
9B7
1,200
1,144
1,265
246
336

106
538
357
504
1,094
1,003
1,217
1,155
1,277
251
336

1,131
73
822
1,211
499
618
539
111
354
319

1,120
73
824
1,233
500
619
542
114
355
316

1,116
74
825
1,199
507
625
544
114
359
313

629
3,207
4,057
3,329
9,307

631
3,210
4,067
3,347
9,316

635
3,159
4,063
3,357
9,350

7965

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans

1964

9-month spans

1965

1964

1965

Diffusion index title and components

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores ..
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores

-

+

+

-

-

-

+

-

.

+

-f

+

+

f

1-month spans

1964

6-month spans

1965

1964

1965

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments .
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries

47

88

78

67 82

87

58

+
o

+
-f-

+

+

+

+

-f-

+

58 88

78

75

92

87

80

90

90

83

72

78

88

Fabricated metal products

Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction ....
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
= rising; o = unchanged;




-

+

+

4-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

o

o
+

f

+

+

+

4-

+

+

+

-f

+

+

+

- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.

51

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST 1965

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964

1965

1965

Diffusion index title and components
Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

2,997
8,763
2,344
7,491

3,005
8,797
2,345
7,519

3,011
8,816
2,352
7,572

7,5SO

July

Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGR1CULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1-^
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government

2,960
8,592
2,320
7,189

2,964
8,633
2,331
7,265

2,970
8,634
2,354
7,306

2,975
8,654
2,352
7,340

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products . . . * . . . . * •
Leather and products
Paper and printing
•••
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Minerals:
fj03l

Metal stone and earth minerals
Stone and earth minerals

2,979
8,689
2,342
7,365

2,997
8,754
2,340
7,451

3,019
8,880

a, 352

Index: 1957-59 = 100

134.0

131.2

135.0

137.7

138.4

140.5

140.9

141.4

142.4

143.6

132.8
134.3

131.8
130.7

134.6
136.9

137.9
139.7

139.6
140.6

140.4
145.1

141.4
147.4

140.8
146.0

143^7
146.7

148
148

145*6
H2.9
130.9
138.6

145.4
143.8
105.3
137.6

148.2
146.3
129.2
140.2

149 .*9
148.5
140.3
142.0

151*.4
149.2
141.4
142.7

153.8
153.4
144.4
146.9

155^2
155.3
144.6
145.5

157.6
156.8
147.3
147.0

159ll
157.9
149.2
149.7

127.0
109.7

126.9
110.8

127.7
109.2

130.2
105.5

132.6
111.9

129.2
120.5

129.*9
114.2

130^3
117.1

131.0
113.0

161
160
150
151
126
132
(NA)

132.6

H4.'i

147.4
135.9

149.3
137.4

151.' 5
139.1

150.6
139.6

154." 3
142.4

155.6
143.2

156 '.5
143.6

15?!4
143.4

158
143

125.8
135.8
100.3

127^5
137.2
102.4

129^6
139.1
103.2

130^9 .
140.6
103.3

132.1
142.2
103.6

13o! 9
144.0
100.8

132.2
143.6
105.0

131.6
143.6
105.0

133.7
132.0
(NA)
(NA)

135^5
123.0

137.0
123.6

133^8
123.9

14o! 2
125.6

137.7
126.6

139^6
128.5

140.0
128.3

140 .*9
129.3

165^0
120.4
162.4

162.5
122.9
161,0

163.0
121.6
160.5

166 ".5
120.6
164.0

166^9
119.0 •
167.2

169.5
122.2
172.6

169 .*2
121.5
167.7

167.3
122.9
168.1

120 .'o
120.6

120.7
123.3

122.' 8
121.0

123.5
125.4

123.6
122.2

123.' 6
127.2

122.5
120.9

126! a
116.5

139^4
129.9
161.8
169.4
123.0
(NA)
120.8
121.2
(NA)

134
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
135
(NA)
131
163
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
121
(NA)
(NA)

105.1
112.3

109.2
111.1

108.7
110.4

107.2
110.7

107.7
110.1

103.1
111.4

107.9
112.0

113.0
111.9

117.2
112.2

111 '.3
119.6

115.7
119.7

127 .'l
123.9

12l! 8
123.4

126.7
120.8

124^6

124.1

125.8
118.2

12l! 6
123.9

121.7
125.6

117
114
125
(NA)
(NA)

101.2

101.4

101.4

101.5

101.6

102.0

102.4

102.6

103.1

103.0

100.3
98.6
101.9
100.7

100.6
98.6
101.8
100.6

100.3
98.6
101.8
100.8

100.6
98.5
101.5
100.9

102.1
98.3
101.8
101.1

100.9
98.3
101.8
101.4

100.2
98.0
101.7
101.5

99.6
98.0
101.8
101.3

99.3
98.0
102.1
101.3

99.4
97.8
102.1
101.6

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel

NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
NA Not available.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)

52FRASER
Digitized for


bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

*«GUST

TABLE

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans

1-month spans
1964
Diffusion index title and components

1965

1964

. ^ > < j £ = - 0 ; = _ > , c =
o
o
^
ca
o>
J|
a.
<a
3

~O

3

^

O

g - o o c u j = a j n 3 a . r o §
o o O S O —» U _ S < C S —i

O
Q

1965
.

eii
T

C
O?
O L L

-

m

e^

S

<

C

CC
S -

^
—
^ - ^

tJfl^fJ'llls!

041. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government

+

4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

O

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-t-

+

+

+

_

_

_

+

+

O

+

O

-

+

+

+

+

-H

+

-

0

+

67

71

79

75

62

77

58

62

83

81

81

69

88

92

83

+

+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

—

—

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furnfture and fixtures
Miscellaneous

- 4

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

4 +

+

+

+
+
-

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
-

+
+
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

83 88

85 83 79

+
+

+

Nondurable goods:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products

+
-

+
-

+
+

+

+

+
-

+
+

+ +
- NA
+

+

4

NA

+

+

+

—

+

O

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+
- - 4

+

+

+

+

-H

4

+

4

j - j _ j _

J _ _ I _ _ I _ _ L , _ U

- o N A N A
o N A N A

+
-

+
+

+
+

+
-

+
+

+
+

+
+

NA NA
NA NA

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

NA

+

+

+

- NA

+

+

+

+

—

-H

+

+

4

4

4

f

-

-4

-

+

+

-

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

- + N A N A

+
+

--+
+

+

+
+

+
+

+

4

4

+

+

+ NA

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

-

i

4.

+--

M A

+

+
4

+

+
+
+

4

+

+

NA

+

NA
+ NA

NA

+
i

NA

++ NA
+ NA NA
NA
l\Ti

MA

Minerals:
+

+

+

h

+

+

+

+

+

+

_t_

_i_

_i_

4.

_i_

—

+

+

Crude oil and natural gas
-i_

+

Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

+
+

+
+

+
-

+

+
+

+

-+
NA
+
+ NA

_i_

+

itfA
n

4-

1\TA

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)

61 52 61 63 61 67 72 6l
All manufacturing industries

+

Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
4 = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.

O

+

+

+

o

o

—

O
+

—

—

+

4
+

61
+

59 61 70 78 83 76 80 78 76
+ +
+ + +
+ +
+ +

61

6l

+

+

-

—

o

o

—

o

+

+
—

4
0

0
+

+

+

O

+

-

4

+

+

+

O

+

+

—

+

O

4
+

o

o

-

-

-

-

+

-

-

+

+

0

+

+

+
+

NA Not available.

^he percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.




53

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

AUGUST 7965

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965

19 64

1965

Diffusion index title and components
Sept.

Nov.

Oct.

Dec.

Jan.

Mar,

Apr.

May

113.2
101,0

114.9
101.4
109.5
104 7
105 6
96 6
100 5
110 8

June

July

116.?

115 B
101.3
109 • 4
104 8
105 2

Index: 195 7-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING^Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Fabricated structural metal products • • • • • • *
Fabricated nonstructural metal products

Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products.
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
x

107.1
99.5
108.3
104.0
104.8
96 6
100 7
108 8

110.0
99.5
108.1
104.6
104.9
96 2
100 6
109 8

101 6

101
107
99
103

0
3
2
6

%

0

107
99
103
95
103

2
2
2
9
1

99 0
96 8
89 8
92 1
105.3

103 1

100
107
98
103
96
103

4
3
8
/
5
1

QQ 1

QQ n

%

Q

Q7 0

92 1
91 8
105 4

93 6
91 8
105 0

Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.

Digitized for 54
FRASER


112.3
99.7
108.3
104 6
104 9
96 3
100 6
108 7

113 6
99.9
108.0
104 9
104 1
95 8
100 8
10Q /

101 1
10*7 4

98 Q

112.0
100.1
107.8
104 1
105.2
96 8
100 8
107 9

100 7
109 1

101 3
107 4
9Q l

102 0
108 0
99 3

112 7
100 4
109.0

1Q/ /
105 0
97 3

96 Q

in3 n
97 n

103 1

101 1

in? /

QA Q
97 3
Q3 3

93 A

97 n

QQ
Q7
9^
Q?

in? 5

91 8

105 1

Q/ 1
9? 0
105 1

1O9 7

96 9

3
1
5
1

106 7

109.1
104 6
105.4
97 3
101 0
111 0
102 9
108 5
99 5
i n? ft

96 0
103 <5

109.0
104
105
97
100
113

8
6
?
7
0

97 3

100 5
113 9

in/ i
106 ?
1O7 7
108 4
100 7
100 1
i n3 A -| A-2 Q

100 9
i n/ 7

qe 7
i nq £

1 03 5

Q^ 8

i 03 >

A
5
/
?

inn i

106 4

107 3

QQ
97
9/
Q?

101.?

Q7 5
95 5
93 ?

i nn i
Q7 y
Q5 /
93 *5

108 1

106 /
1 07 9

QK A

i nn 9
97 ^

QK E

Q3 ?

108 8

(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)

Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau.

bed

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST 7965

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans

1-month spans
1964

Diffusion index title and components

1965

§ 1 ! ! ! ! i-ii =

JTsJII^^iJ-fl
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
*
Pulp paper and allied products
Phpmirjils snH All iprt nrnrlnrt^

0

-

4

-

4

-

0

4

-

4

-

+

-

+

§

+

+

+

+

t~
3
-^

+
+*

1 1 8 1 11

+

+

+

4

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

-

4

+

+

+

+

+

+

0

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

O

+

+

0

+

-

+

+

0 -

+

- -

+

+

0

+

+

+

+

+

0

+

+

+

+

+

+

O+

O

+

-

+

-

+

-

+
+

+

0

+

+

+

+

+

+
+
+
-

+
+
+
-

+
+
+
-

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+

+
+
+

4

+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+
4

+

O

+

-

-

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

--

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

_

_

-

+

0

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

0

+

—

+

—

+

O

OOO

+

---

+

+

+

+

+

-

O

O

-

+

+
+

0

+

-

+
o
+

+

+

+

-

-

+

4-

O + 0

O-

+

+
o
+

1964

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

O

+

+

+

+

-

O

0

+

+

+

4-

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

o

9-month spans

A V L g - O

6
A
U m C

-i
D T

*L
O

24

92

64

71

+ - + -

+
+

O

>

e

C

>L

=

5 ^ ~ 2
T O ^

X

£ o s = 0 - ^ U . S < C ' E - ^

73

+
+

+
+

60

+
+

+

- -

-

-

+

+

-

-

+

-

0
-

+
+

82

0

67

25

+_
+ + +

+

+

+

+

+

1965

1964

1965

§ | I « « l 5 . | * =

Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance

+

+

1-month spans

Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters

|

—
3
-^
-

-

-

D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS i
(23 industry components)2
Percent rising 3
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal bituminous
Food composi te
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
paper
Publ ishing ,
Chemicals

£ 1 ta- = -1 =

I|

i
ro>^
O.
<*
S

+

+

Hides skins leather and leather products

4

1965

1964

+

_
--

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

O

+

4

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

Q

-

-

-

-

-

j

|

1 2 S

£
1

<

&

+
-

+
+
-

+

+

+

-

+

+

_

+

4

+

---

+
.

+
_

4

+
-

-

_

J"

.i 15

-^

<C

t%

-^

85 82 69 66 75 77 77 80
+
+ + + + + + +
-

-

-

o

+

4

+

+

+

+

+

+

- - -

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

( - 4 -

+

+

'

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

O

58 52
+ +
-

+

+

O- _
+

+
--

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

4 - 4 -

+

+

--

+

+

+

4-

-

+

+

+

-

-

-

-

_

_

+

+

-

-

+
-

+

_

-

-

+
-

+
-

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
-

+
-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
-

4-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

4

+

+

+

+

--

+
4-

+
_

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

JI
• o.

& § 5 ^ "S- •§
:

+
+

O--

§

_

.-

4> = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
•'•Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 78 components to November 1964 and on 77 components thereafter.



55

TABLE

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

AUGUST 7965

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans

1-month spans
1964

Diffusion index title and components

D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
*
North Central region:
Chicago (3)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
•'
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (18)
Milwaukee (16)
Minneapolis (13)
St Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (2)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6). • • • • » • • • • • • » • • • • • * • • •
Seattle (22)

1964

1965

.«_,
o

>
o

o
<1J

=

ro

.0
<D

,_
TO

»_
a.

>s
ro

c:
3

"5

Sl|||||.|§

o.
Oj
co

•*•"*
CJ
O

O

•*"
25

*•*
ft>
O

c
^>

•*-*
QJ
U_

*—
TO
S

*—
Q<C

CO

•**
S

c
3
—»

^ g i t t i ^ f t s

32

83

24

57

66

51

34

61

62

89

62

70

74

72

79

79

60

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

4-

4_

+
_

+
_

+
+

+
_

+
_

+

+
+

+

+

+
+

_ _

+

_

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
+

+
_

+
+

+
+

+
_

+

-

+

+

4-

+

+

+

4 - +

'

+

+

+

+

4_

+
+

+
4-

- 4 +
•

-

+

-

34

- 4
_ _

-

4
+

-

+

4 - 4 _
+

-

-

+

+

4
--

+
-

-

-

....

1965

+
-

-

4

+

-

- _ _

_ _

-

-

4

4+

+

-

+

4
+

-

+

4

-

62

4 - 4 +

- 4 -

+
4-

-

m •

-

-

+
+

+
+

4

-

+
-

+

+
_

_

+
+

+
+

+

+

+
_

4+

_

+

_

+

+

-

4

_

-

H
+

+
+

4+

4-

_

+•+

4

+

60

-

-

-

+

+
+
---

+

+

4-

+

+
_

+

-_

+

_
_

+
_

_
_

+
_ _

4- '
+

+

+

--

+

-

+

-

+
4>

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

_

+

+

+

+

+

+

--

+

_

+

+
_

+

+
-

+

+

*-

+

+

+

-

+

+
_

+
+

+
_

+
+

+
_

+
+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

--

f

+

+

+

+

+

-

+
+

+

+

+

+
+

+
+

+

+

+
+

+
+

+

+
+
+

+
4-

4 - 4 - 4 -

+

=

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

f

+

- = rising; o ^unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed becausethis series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
(See
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas. The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor
market area.

Digitized for 56
FRASER


Section THREE

charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES
Currenf expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles
SPECIFIC CYCLES
Currenf expansions in selected series compared with earlier
expansions in fhese series

PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER EXPANSIONS




Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
Percent of specific peak levels
Percent change from specific trough levels

57

CHART

AUGUST 1965

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

bed

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES

Percent

PERIOD COVERED
—— Mov, 1948 to Apr. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)

-Reference trough dates

July 1953 to Feb. 1959 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
..„„.. July 1957to Oct. 1962 (Referencetrough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
TTTTyTTTTr[TTTTTJTTTTTJTTITr|TTTTTyi I I I I | .
i

Percent

Reference trough dates
23. Industrial

-1 110

materials prices

140
130
120

17. RatioM price
to unit labor
cost,

mfg.

105

110

100*.

100*

(

90

w

'*\

95
24. New orders, mach

80
70

and equip, indus.
19. Stock prices, 500

200

common stocks

190
180

130 1

190
180
170
160
150
140
130

120

120

110

110

100*

100"

90

90

170
160
150
140 ^

80
111
-12

I I I I 1 1 1 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I l l I I I I ll 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-6

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54

Months from reference troughs

-12-6

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54

Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
•Reference peak level. A-Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
OPoinl at which a new reference trough was reached.

58




bed

CHART

AUGUST 7965

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued

PERIOD COVERED

Nov. 1948 to Apr 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)

-Reference trough dates

--July 1953 to Feb. 1959 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957to Oct. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough; Feb. 1961)

Percent
115

43. Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)

-Reference trough dates

41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments

Percent
49. GNP in current dollars

135
130
125
120
<N

115 -i
110
105
100*

95

-1 85
-12 -6

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54

Months from reference troughs

-12 -6

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54

Months from reference troughs

Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. 1Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level.
* Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.




59

e

CHART

AUGUST 1965

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
©

bed

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued

PERIOD COVERED

Percent

Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
Reference trough dates

July 1953 to Feb. 1959 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957toOct. 1962 (Referencetrough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
TI rn M I N I M I I H I M HTM I MM M i l l M i l l M I M M

-«

Percent

62. Labor cost

115

per unit of output, mfg.

Reference trough dates

110

61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment

105 -i

100*

95

64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
67. Bank rates on

140

short-term business loans

135
130
125
120
115 ^

no 3
•.—-<>.„..—„.--

105
100

95
90

-12-6

0

+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs

90

+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used Scale L-l is a logarithmic sralp with i mri*
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. ^Latest data anticipated,
'ogamnmic scale with 1 cycle
*Reference peak level, if Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.,
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.

60




-12-6

0

bed

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

AUGUST 1965

CHART

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLES

m

PERIOD COVERED
Comparisons cover a 60-month period beginning
with specific trough dates corresponding to
the reference troughs of-

1949

1958

1954

1961

TmTmTTT7lrnT

1 1 1 (i [ 1 1 1 1 [ 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 1 1 1 r 11

Percent

— Specific trough dates

23. Industrial

Percent

200
190
180
170
160

materials prices

•*—Specific trough dates

17. Ratio, price to

150

unit labor cost, mfg.

140

-,115

130
120

110

110

100s1
105
24. New orders,mach.
and equip. Indus.

100*

210
200
190
180
170
160

260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160

150

150

140

140

130

130

H120

120

110

110

100"

100*

19. Stock prices,
500 common stocks

[ 1 | i 11 I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I | M I 1 I 1 I I I I I I I I 1 i I j I I i 1 1 [ I I I I I I M M I I I I I I I I I

0

+6

+12 +18

+24

+30 +36

+42

+48

+54

+60

0

+6

+12+18+24

+30 +36 +42 +48

+54 +60

Months from specific troughs
Months from specific troughs
See appendix B for specific dates. Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 8. Various
scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
*Specific trough level.




61

CHART

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

AUGUST 7965

beef

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLES—Continued

PERIOD COVERED

•<—Specific trough dates

Comparisons cover a 60-month period beginning
with specific trough dates corresponding to
the reference troughs of-

1949
1954

1958
1961

0

1
-Specific trough dates

2

43. Unemployment rate, total
(Percent unemployed, inverted) '

3
^e

4

41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments

a
4

5
6
7

Percent
ISO

US
140

49. GNP in current dollars

135
130

125 2
•§
120 £
115
110
105
J

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs

100*

100*

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30

+36 +42 +48

+54 +60

Months from specific troughs

See appendix B for specific dates. Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes tat this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are sliovm in table 8 Various
scales are used. Scale L-1 is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle In a given distance; scale L-2 is i logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
*Specific trough level. ll_ines represent actual data rather than percentages of specific trough levels.

62



bed

AUGUST 1965

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

CHART

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLES—Continued

im|.TTirrriTTT,JM,M|MM

PERIOD COVERED
Comparisons cover a 60-month period beginning
with specific trough dates corresponding to
the reference troughs of--

1949

1958

1954

1961

I I I 1 I 1 I I I I! I 1 I I I I j 1 1 I M I 1 I M I | I M I 1 I M I M 1 I I I M I 1 I M I I I ! I I I I 1

•*

•

(Specific trough dates

125

Percent

Specific trough dates

61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment

Percent

62. Labor cost per
unit of output, mfg.

160

120

115

150
140
110

130
120
110

105

100"
100

64. Book value of
mfrs.' inventories

150
145
140

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs

67. Bank rates on short-term

140

business loans

135

135

130

130

125

125

120

120

115

115

110

110

105

105

100*

100*

0

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs

See appendix B for specific dates. Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 8
scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
*Specific trough level. ^Latest data anticipated.




Various

63

TABLE

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

•fl

COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES

Selected series

Month
after
reference
trough *

Auem ,965

Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning inNov.
1927

July
1921

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

53d
52d
52d
53d

102.5
118.9
182.1
144.3

101.5
109.1
81.2
119.1

98.8
86.3
75.4
127.8

99.0
71.3
67.9
120.7

110.8
202.0
203.3
283.6

71.7
38.3
61.5
68.9

70.0
35.0
35.4
22.6

96.2
44.3
62.6
99.1

(NA)
53.8
20.6
208.0

Mar.
1933

July
1924

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,

7. Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, 2commercial and
industrial floor space
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)

53d

114.6

109.6

115.7

117.5

184.3

59.4

13.4

142.4

252.6

52d
52d
53d

140.2
108.5
75.0

115.4
129.0
45.9

108.6
183.7
51.2

117.4
125.0
52.2

373.9
42.6
259.3

56.9
62.3
(NA)

16.4
94.9
39.1

128.2
114.5
133.6

51.1
80.8
26.9

16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23 Industrial materials prices
24, New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. New building permits private housing

51st
53d
53d
53d
53d
53d

159.7
105.2
153.8
110.1
151.4
117.3

121.2
101.8
119.6
90.6
117.5
124.0

123.0
101.1
229.0
103.4
134.8
114.1

86.0
94.1
173.8
76.1
110.9
122.9

207.0
(NA)
58.3
109.6
(NA)
(MA)

63.2
(NA)
55.6
96.5
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
48.2
41.5
(NA)
(NA)

121.2
(NA)
267.0
81.3
(NA)
(NA)

106.0
(NA)
141.1
72.5
(NA)
(NA)

41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments 3 ..
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) . .
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)

53d
53d
53d
51st

111.3
+0.7
130.7
131.9

105.2
-1.4
117.1
126.5

104.0
-3.4
107.8
126.4

108.9
-1.8
123.5
136.7

129.9
(NA)
180.9
176.0

96.3
-11.1
104.8
87.6

66.2
(NA)

97.9
(NA)
117.6
123.9

88.1
(NA)
116.5
(NA)

50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N Y
52. Personal income
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and

51st
53d
53d
53d

122.8
154.9
132.1
129.7

117.2
134.7
126.3
118.1

110.9
139.6
128.9
125.0

122.6
145.1
133.8
125.6

(NA)
149.5
181.7
127.3

102.3
67.4
87.4
97.4

90.6
64.3
66.0
73.0

125.7
142.5
125.9
114.7

(NA)
110.6
(NA)
112.5

53d

101.4

101.3

110.3

108.5

110.9

94.3

72.2

86.4

66.5

61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b. Anticipated *

48th
57th

135.0
143. 5

97.9
97.9

105.4
115.7

128.2
120.6

(NA)
(NA)

73.6
78.7

36.9
20.9

108.1
128.2

55.6
68.1

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66 Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . .

53d
52d
52d
51st

96.9
119.0
•153.1
93.3

110.4
109.0
139.1
103.3

109.0
112.8
151.6
120.6

116.5
151.4
265.9
140.9

132.1
159.2
90.3
(NA)

91.7
109.3
129.2
53.9

80.3
(NA)
(NA)
101.0

84.5
(NA)
(NA)
103.6

73.3
(NA)
(NA)
82.8

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

60.4
69.9

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1,17,19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52,54,55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage
base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6,7, 9,13,14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates. NA Not available.
^•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CITOLE
DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
used for all other entries.

Digitized for64
FRASER


bed AUGUST iws

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES

Month
after
reference
trough i

Selected series

Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning inFeb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,

53d
52d
52d
53d

+4.1
+10.0
+107.7
+54.2

+4.9
+20.0
+40.6
+35.0

+1.0
+20.0
+14.0
+42.6

-0.3
-19.7
+1.2
+39.4

+27.0
+126.1
+310.0
+371.8

+6.4
-6.6
+66.7
+258.6

-28.7
-52.2
-50.0
-77.4

53d

+14.5

+12.9

-1.1

-16.2

+96.3

+293.3

52d
52d
53d

+50.5
+16.8
-23.3

+46.9
+35.1
-39.0

+12.1
+55.5
-46.3

+36.0
+19.6
-55.5

(NA)
-50.6
+252.5

51st
53d
53d
53d
53d
53d

+82.0
+7.3
+36.6
+15.4
+59.7
+21.0

+55.9
+7.6
+37.0
+4.2
+33.0
+21.9

+25.4
+2.9
+81.0
+3.4
+44.8
-4.6

+ 5.5
-4.7
+67.2
+1.3
+26.5
-23.2

41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments 3. .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) .
47 Industrial production.
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)

53d
53d
53d
51st

+13.4
+2.4
+38.6
+32.2

+9.5
+1.8
+36.3
+28.8

+7.7
+0.1
+18.5
+27.3

50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N.Y
52 Personal income*
54 Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods

51st
53d
53d
53d

+24.6
+51.3
+30.9
+32.3

+21.4
+39.0
+26.1
+20.0

53d

+1.5

+1.8

61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actual
b. Anticipated 4

48th
57th

+44.8
+53.9

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66 Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). - -

53d
52d
52d
51st

-5.1
+20.3
+48.1
+0.4

2 Accession rate manufacturing
•
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space**
13 New business incorporations
•
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing- .
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries

+5.3
+102.0
-11.5

+7.0
+368.3
(NA)
+194.7

-87.1

+43.9

+158.0

+375.2
-21.3
(NA)

-81.1
-8.6
-57.6

+84.6
+ 54.7
+48.3

+87.3
+11.7
+59.5

(NA)
(NA)
-7.2
+61.9
•(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
+168.7
+132.4
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
-63.2
-57.4
(NA)
(NA)

+125.0
(NA)
+156.4
-3.0
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
+90.8
+73.3
(NA)
(NA)

+14.7
+2.3
+35.0
+41.5

+44.9
(NA)
+164.7
+99.9

+40.8
+14.3
+117.2
+73.9

-31.1
(NA)
-35.8
-30.3

+12.7
(NA)
+43.1
+26.8

+27.9
(NA)
+70.6
+42.1

+13.4
+37.4
+28.9
+25.8

+24.6
+51.1
+40.3
+25.6

(NA)
+79.0
+104.0
+56.2

+42.1
+76.6
+77.7
+85.0

-11.4
-40.8
-34.5
-27.0

+26.1
+47.1
+25.8
+14.7

+39.7
+42.6
+44.7
+20.0

+11.2

+14.3

+17.3

+30.2

-22.4

-5.3

+5.1

+21.9
+21.9

+10.3
+21.1

+60.2
+ 50.7

(NA)
(NA)

+329.1
+359.0

-58.0
-76.2

+54.9
+83.8

+61.9
+98.3

-5.5
+13.1
+38.0
+19.7

+6.8
+20.7
+46.6
+26.4

+21.1
+62.2
+112.4
+40.4

+27.3
+68.2
-3.1
(NA)

+25.0
+84.5
+170.2
-30.8

-18.5
(NA)
(NA)
+4.9

-17.8
(NA)
(NA)
+18.1

-18.5
(NA)
(NA)
-23.2

+106.5

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

•

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1,17,19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference trough month is used asthe base. See MCD footnote to appendixC. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates. NA Not available.
x
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
^Measures are differences from the reference trough levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
used for all other entries.




65

CYCLICAL COMPARISONS

AUGUSTUS

COMPARISONS FROM SPECIFIC PEAK AND TROUGH LEVELS AND SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES

Selected series

Month
after
specific
trough1

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing . .
13 New business incorporations
. . * ..
.* . .
if Ratio price to unit labor cost index
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
23 Industrial "materials prices
24 New orders machinery and equipment industries .......
29 New building permits private housing
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41 Employees in nonagricultural establishments
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) 2
47 Industrial production
,
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
53, Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction .
54. Sales of retail stores
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment (Q):.
a Actual
b. Anticipated3
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing. .
13 New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29 New building permits private housing
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments 2
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)
47. Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction .
54 Sales of retail stores
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment (Q):
a Actual
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . , .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . . .

55th
53d
53d
57th
55th
56th
55th

101.0
101.1
102.3
142.1
108.2
148.6
90.7

*99.0
*138.1
#101.0
*122.5
*92.9
*99.2
«96.5

(NSC)
75.7
*107.2
*155.6
*135.1
*211.6
*158.1

104.9
42.5
(NA)
55.7
105.0
(NA)
(NA)

*75.8
*70.4
(NA)
*S7.9
91.3
(NA)
(NA)

#100.0
#110.5
(NA)
(NSC)
#76.6
(NA)
(NA)

*97.8
#106.8
(NA)
203.2
#100.8
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
#86.3
(NA)
#99.2
#71.3
(NA)
(NA)

53d
50th
53d
54th
51st
55th
51st

110.9
+0.4
128.6
131.9
122.7
127.9
128.0

*102.7 *105.4 mi. 7
*-1.2
*-!.!
*+1.0
*109.0 *109.2 *135.1
*113.1 *121.4 *139.3
#107.7 *109.3 •*126.7
*109.1 *116.1 *U7.6
(NSC)
*109.4 •*117.7

129.3
(NA)
176.8
181.9
(NA)
237.1
124.5

"96.3
(NA)
101.7
92.1
100.9
*89.4
93.0

no 5. 6
(NA)
#116.2
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)

#96.6
(NA)
#108.2
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)

*91.3
(NA)
#112.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
105.9

45th
54th
43d
48th
42d

135.0
143.5
94.9
118.3
93.1

*96.2
*96.2
*97.2
*104.2

*131.0
*131.0

(NA)
(NA)
126.2
139.7
(NA)

61.9
79.7
(NSC)
102.0
*82.9

#118.6
#118.6
(NSC)
(NA)
#119.7

#108.1
#108.1
(NSC)
(NA)
#91.0

#62.5
#62.5
#74-8
(NA)
#81.0

mo. 5

*99.8
(NSC)
«90.3
*186.3
*65.1
*106.2
*90.4

*iio.9

*117.2
*129.0

129.5
*129.5
*115.6
*151.0
136.5

Percent change from specific trough corresponding to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
55th
53d
53d
57th
55th
56th
55th

+7.0
+18/3
+7.3
+58.0
+18.4
+60.9
+21.8

*+5.2
*+4.3
*+6.5
(NSC)
+28.0
*+51.7
*+6.8 *+15.2
*+9.4
*+48.1 *+109.6 *+87.4
*+17.4 *+24.7 *+100.3
*+36.7 *+89.9 *+180.1
*+56.3 ^+54.9 ^+123.8

53d
50th
53d
54th
51st
55th
51st

+13.4
+2.6
+38.6
+32.3
+24.6
+36.3
+33.4

*+7.3
*+2.6
*+27.2
*+l6.l
*f!2.0
*+l8.8
*f!3.7

*+9.1
%2.4
*f21.3
*+23.8
*+13.2
*+25.4
*+23.7

*+17.8
*+5.3
*+50.0

45th
54th
43d
48th

+46.3
+55.5
-1.2
+21.0
+0.6

*+22.6
*+22.6
*+4.9
*+10.8
*+28.5

*+47.2
*+47.2
*+17.4
*+26.6
*+37.0

42d

+25.7 "+12. 0
-46.7 *+12.8
(NA)
(NA)
+2.0 *+297.7
+62.5 +145.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

#+4.5
#+20.5
(NA)
(NSC)
#+7.3
(NA)
(NA)

#+7.9
#+42.9
(NA)
+138.6
#+36.7
(NA)
(NA)

**+15.4
#+23.6
(NA)
#+46.2
#+75.0
(NA)
(NA)

+44.9 #+40.8
(NA)
+14.6
+161.5 +118.2
+82.7
+117.0
(NA)
+49.8
*+29.1
*+68.1 +224.3 #+151.4
(NSC)
+81.3
+54.1

#+11.5
(NA)
#+24.9
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)

#+12.0
(NA)
#+31.7
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)

#+32.6
(NA)
#+66.1
+57.2
(NA)
(NA)
+24.1

+61.8
*+6l.8
*+24.2
*N-70.0
+43.8

#+41.2
#+41.2
(NSC)
(NA)
#+•26.6

#+54.9 #+102.9
#+54.9 #+102.9
(NSC)
#+22.2
(NA)
(NA)
#+6.0
#+7.3

*+u.i

(NA)
(NA)
+57.1
+75.2
(NA)

+276.9
+385.5
+30.8
+80.9
#+11.4

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19,23r 41, 43. 47,53, 54, 62, and 64), the value for the month indicated
in the 1st column (month after specific trough) is divided by the value for the specific peak or trough month. Similarly, the specific peak or trough quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series (series 49. 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 13, 24r and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the
specific peak or trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date, indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the month indicated in the 1st column. The figure shown represents tile change to the specific peak, and the period covered is shorter than that of the
current expansion. See appendix B for specific peak dates.
1
Baaed on period of the most recent specific 'expansion for each series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough to the
latest month shown in table 2. The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by an asterisk (*).
Percent measures for shorter time spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Specific trough dates
2
3
are shown in appendix B.
Measures are differences from the specific peak or trough levels.
Anticipated expenditures
(4th quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only, Actual expenditures are used for all
other entries.

66



Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961

Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Trough

Cycle

(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879

June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869.
October 1873
March 1882

May 1885 . . .
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900

(X)
18
8
32
18
65

30
22
46
~18
34
36

(X)
48
30
78
'Q
36
99

52
101

March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902. . .

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
42
39

August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921

May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923

23
13
24
23
7
18"

33
19
12
44
10
22

44
46
43
35
51
"28

56
32
36
67
17
40

July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949

October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
.July 1953

14
13
43'
13
8
11

27
21
50
80
37
45

36
40
64
63
88
48

41
34
93
93
45
56

August 1954
April 1958
February 1961

July 1957
May 1960

13
9
9

35
25
(X)

58
44
34

48
34
(X)

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

X
49
2
54
3

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

4
46
5
48
6

(X)
40
5A
-silt
50

46

42

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
3
5
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
2
4
6
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research,




67

Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS

Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13. New business incorporations .................
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks . . »
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment Indus...
29. New building permits, private housing

Dec. '60 Apr. '58 Apr. »54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 July '24 Mar. '21
•Sep. '39 Dec. '34 Dec. '26 June '24 Jan. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Apr. '38 June '32
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

'61
'61
'61
'60
'60
'60
'60

June
Nov.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.

'58
'57
'58
'57
'58
'58
'58

(NSC)
(NSC)
Dec. '53
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Mar. '54
Sep. '53

Feb. '61
May '61
Feb. '61
4thQ '60
IstQ '61
(NSC)
Dec. '60
Apr. '61

May
July
Apr.
IstQ
IstQ
Feb.
May
Mar.

'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58

Aug.
Sep.
Apr.
2ndQ
2ndQ
Apr.
Sep.
Jan.

'54 Oct. »49 June
'54 Oct. '49 June
'54 Oct. '49 May
'54 4thQ '49 2ndQ
'54 2ndQ »49 IstQ
'54 July '49 May
'54 Oct. '49 June
(NSC) May
'54

3rdQ
May
Aug.
2ndQ

'58
'59
'58
'58

IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ

'55
'55
'54
'55

May
Jan.
Feb.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
Dec.

Aug.
Feb.
May
June
June
Apr.
Jan.

'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47 . Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores

'38 Mar.
'38 May
'38 July
'38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.

'33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
'33

IstQ
July
May
3rdQ

'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

61.
62.
64.
67.

Business expenditures, new plant and equip,. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of > output, manufacturing. Dec.
June
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ

'61
'61
'61
'61

4thQ
Aug.
Jan.
IstQ

'49
»50
»50
'50

3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ

'38
'40
'39
'40

Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series

May
1960

July
1957

July
1953

Nov.
1948

May
1937

Aug.
1929

Oct.
1926

May
1923

Jan.
1920

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13. New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing

Apr. '59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53

June
Apr.
May
July
Nov.
July
Nov.

(NSC) Dec. »36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
'46 July '37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22
'46 Dec. »36 Jan. '29 Oct. '25 Apr. '23
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NSC) Mar. '23
'48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
»48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29 Nov. '25 Mar. '23
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NA)
'47
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
Dec. '19
Dee. '19
(NA)
July '19
Apr. '20
(NA)
(NA)

'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
'55

(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Feb. '51 Jan.
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
July '50 Oct.

Mar.
Mar.
Feb.
3rdQ
3rdQ
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.

'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57

June
July
July
2ndQ
2ndQ
Oct.
July
Mar.

'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53

Sep. '48 July
Jan. '48 July
July 14$ May
4thQ '48 3rdQ
4thQ '48 3rdQ
Oct. '48 June
Aug. '48 May
(NSC) Sep.

'37
'37
'37
»37
'37
'37
'37
'37

3rdQ
Apr.
Sep.
4thQ

'57
'58
'57
'57

3rdQ
Jan.
Sep.
4thQ

'53
'54
'53
'53

4thQ
May
Jan.
2ndQ

'37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC) Oct. '23 Nov. '20
(NSC)
'37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20

'60 Mar.
'59 Feb.
'59 Dec.
'59 July
'59 Dec.
'59 Nov.
'58 Feb.

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)..
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1953 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores

Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. '60
2ndQ 1'60
IstQ 60
(NSC)
May '60
Apr. '60

Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC)
(NSC) July '20
Sep. '29

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing .Feb.
64. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Sep.
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ

'60
'61
'60
'59

'48
'49
'49
'49

3rdQ
Dec.
Oct.
3rdQ

NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES

Digitized for68
FRASER


(See jy/y ,-SSoe.;

Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (NOV. 1964 TO DEC 1965)
196>4

Nov. Dec.

1«?65

Jan. Feb.

4. Temporary layoff, all industries
89.0 94.6 157.0 105.5
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
104.5 137.4 144.9 107.2
unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations1
82.4 101.8 105.2 91.9
107.5 77.7 105.6 104.1
14. Liabilities of business failures
15.
17.
18.
30.
37.

Large business failures
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2...
Nonagri. placements, all industries1.
Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories

94.8 86.0
101.1 97.8
101.4
92.5 83.6
93.1

55. Wholesale prices except farm prod100.0
ucts and foods
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg... 99.0
100.1
81 , Consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to public1
99.8
83. Federal cash receipts. .from public1... 101.8
90.
91.
92.
112.
128.

Defense Dept. oblig., procurement....'
Defense Dept. obligations, total
Military contract awards in U.S
Change in business loans3
Japan, industrial production index...

96.0
91.5
79.4
101.2
99.2

95.1

Mar.

Apr. May

91.6

87.4

77.6

June

73.8 107.2

104.9

95.2
76.9

93.1 104.4

140.3 86.9

99.9
99.8
99.9
97.6
126.8

86.3 97.5 78.6
93.3
96.3
92.8 88.6
91.8
92.1 100.6 88.9 125.1
102.0 100.6 99.7 100.3
94.0 102.1 108.1
102.1

86.3
96.4

106^3
108.2 111.1 102.4

Oct.

Nov.

90.4

89.9

Dec.
94.6

88 6 104 5 137 4
82.4 101.8
94.9
95.8 107.6 77.7

95.0
95.7 91.3 94.6
99.1 101.9 103.1 101.1
101.4
96.9
113.8 122.0 110.6 94.4

86.0
97.8
83.6

94.8

92.9

92.7

90.2

93.0

95.1

99.9
99.9 100.0
98.0
99.3 98.9
99.8 99.7 99.9
98.4 104.0
100.4
81.2 117.5 152.3

99.9
103.8
100.2
97.0
49.1

99.9
100.9
100.0
114.2
114.4

99.8
98.3
100.1
96.9
124.9

100.0
97.3
100.1
101.9
45.4

100.0
99.0
100.1
101.4
101.6

100.1
102.4
99.9
105.8
107.9

197.9
143.1
171.9
99.6
99.8

103.4
115.2
72.8
98.9
100.0

80.1
92.4
88.4
98.5
96.4

108.6 108.2 113.4

100.1 100.2 100.0
102.4 102.3 100.5
99.9
99.9
99.9
103.1
89.6 94.4
107.8 67.7 113.0

Aug. Sept.

92.7 91.8 82.3 83.8 105.3 83.9 77.4
115.6 107.3 103.1 105.8 102.6 95.0 93.1
100.2 104.7 95.7 106.6 100.7 104.7 96.7

112.9 114.1 112.0 113.3 99.5 102.3
98.1 99.5 100.0 100.4 101.1 101.7

8o!i

,*»

107.1

83.9
87.9
95.8 88.6
84.7 90.2
100.3 100.0
99.5 100.1

99.0

96.0
93.3
99.7 98.4
91,8
99.7 106.3 91.5
92.1
103.9 101.1 79.4
99.3 99.9 101.3 102.0
99.5 99.6 99.2 102.1

NOTE; These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
^•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.




69

Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
43. Unemployment rate, total

Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough

Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May

1920-July
1923- July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937-June

1921
1924.
1927
1933
1938

Felo. 1945 -Oct. 19454
Nov. 1948-Oct . 1949
July 1953-Aug. 19545
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb. 1961
Median: 6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.

41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments

47. Index 50. GNP 49. GNP
of indus- in 1958 in curdollars rent
trial
dollars
produc(Q)1'
tion
(Q)1

51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Sales
of retail Change
debits, sonal
in rate, Rate at
stores
income
all
peak
peak to
SMSA's
trough
except
New York

-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7

(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9

-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9

-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5

-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9

-6.2
0.0
0.0
-47.4
-18.5

+2.2
+25.4
+8.8

-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9

-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7

(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4

-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2

-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4

-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9

+9.9
0.0
-0.7
-1.6
-1.9

+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.7

-5.6

-16.0

-1.9

-2.8

-3.1

-2.0

-1.2

-6.5
-3.6

-16.0
-8.8

-2.1
-1.9

-2.8
-1.3

-3.6
-0.8

-2.4
+0.1

-1.8
-1.2

July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June

1921-May 1923
1924-Oct. ' 1926
1927-Aug. 1929
1933-May 1937
1938-Feb. 19454

Oct. 1945-Nov. 1948
Oct. 1949-July 19535
Aug. 195^-July 1957.
Apr. 1958-May I960..
Median: 6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expansions
4 expansions since 1945...

41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments

47. Index 50. GNP 49. GNP
of indus- in 1958 in curtrial
dollars rent
producdollars
(Q)1
tion
(Q)1

4.0
3.2
2
31.9
0.0
11.2
2

2

11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2

3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.9

+3.4

3.5

7.2

+3.6
+3.4

3.9
4.0

7.6
7.2

3

43. Unemployment rate, total

Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak

2

2
+7.9
2
+2.3
2

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4

Rate at
trough

51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Sales
of retail Change
deb it s, sonal
all
stores
in rate, Rato at
income
trough
SMSA's
trough
to peak
except
New York
2
+13.3
-8.7
2
-3.6
+8.8
2
-0.9
+2.7
+85.6 * " -14.2
+102.0
-18.9

2

Rate at
peak

2

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40,2
+45.9

+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3

(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)

+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6

+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7

+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3

+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.8

+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2

+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4

+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1

+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2

+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3

+59.7
+26.3
+20.0
+10.8

+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2

3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4

+17.5

+35.2

+12.3

+27.5

+33.8

+26.7

+19.9

-3.7

7.1

3.3

+13.0
+13.0

+26.6
+23.6

+12.1
+11.6

+20.9
+28.6

+24.4
+39.0

+21.3
+25.3

+14.7
+23.2

-2.6
-2.0

6.3
6.8

3.7
3.9

11.9
2
5.5
a
4.1
25.4
20.0

3.2

2
1.9
23

3.2
11.2
1.1
3

3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 54),.the figure for
the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of the 3
months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
*The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows; 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
19612 (trough). For eralier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

70



Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES

Each month historical data are presented for series that either have not been shown here previously or have "been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix: are given in the index.
Current data are shown
in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.

Jan.

Year

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

16. Corporate profits after taxes (Annual rate, Ml. dol.)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952...
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957.......
1958
1959
I960
1961.

...

...

22.2
20.1
18.9
25.2
20,0
21.7
19.1
26.1
27.2
27.6
19.8
28.0
28.9
24.4

...
...

23.0
18.4
27.6
19.3
18.8
21.3
20.9

23.4
17,7
22.6
21,3
18.8
21.8
19.7
26.5
27.7
26.5
20.2
30.8
27.8
26.4

...
...

...
...

27.4
26.0
26.0
22.8
27.9
25.5
27.8

22.2
18.1
30.3
20.7
20.7
16.6
22.5
28.3
27.4
23.7
26.2
27.0
24.5
30.1

...

21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952....
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959.
I960
1961

,

+3.3
0.0
+2.4
+10.5
+5.2
+2.4
-2.5
+4.6
+6.0
+2.1
-5.4
+3.9
+9.9
-3.5

...
...

+5.1
-5.3
+4.8
+15.2
-2.3
+3.2
-2.7
+6.1
+4.3
+2.3
-5.1
+9.1
+3.9
+2.1

...

.

•••

+6.1
-1.7
+4.9
+10.4
+4.3
+0.7
-2.2
+6.0
+4.1
+3.2
+0.1
+0.4
+3.1
+3.8

...
...

+4.3
-5.3
+15.1
+5.1
+5.4
-4.5
+1.3
+7.1
+4.3
-2.2
+4.1
+6.3
-2.4
+ 5.5

...

49. Gross national product in current dollars (Annual rate, bil. dol;)

1948.
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961

,

,

248.0
258.5
266.0
318.0
339.5
364.2
360.7
386.2
410.6
436.9
434.7
474.0
503.0
503.6

...

...

255.6
255.2
275.4
325.8
339.1
367.5
360.4
394.4
416.2
439.9
438.3
486.9
504.7
514.9

...

...

262.5
257.1
293.1
332.8
345.6
365.8
364.7
402.5
420.6
446.3
451.4
484.0
504.2
524.2

...
...

263.9
255.0
304.5
336.9
357.7
360.8
373.4
408.8
429.5
441.5
464.4
490.5
503.3
537.7

...

50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Annual rate, bil. dol.)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961

, ..

i..




317.1
324.5
339.6
374.8
391.4
412.1
402.9
428.0
443.6
453.4
437.5
468.6
490.2
482.7

...
...

322.9
322.5
348.5
381.5
389.6
416.4
402.1
435.4
445.6
453.2
439.5
479.9
489.8
492.9

...
...

325.8
326.1
362.8
388.7
393.9
413.7
407.2
442.1
444.5
455.2
450.7
475.0
487.4
501.6

...
...

328.7
323.3
370.1
388.7
405.3
408.8
415.7
446.4
450.3
448.2
461.6
480.4
483.8

...

611.9

71

Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued

Each month historical data are presented for series that either have not been shown here previously or have been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index. Current data are shown
in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Jan.

Year

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept,

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

216.3
205.0
235.8
261.9
280.8
290.9
293.3
317.9
341.4
354.4
366.4
385.0
404.8
424.3

215.0
207.5
237.9
262.9
280.1
289.1
296.1
320.4
341.4
354.8
370.8
389.0
403-8
428.6

212.3
208.7
243.3
263.9
282.1
288.1
296.9
322.5
343.3
353.7
372.6
395.3
401.3
431.1

52. Personal income (Annual rate, bil. dol,)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958.......
1959
I960
1961

;.

'.

....

.

202.5
208.9
216.9
244.5
261.9
282.8
287.7
298.2
323-0
343.2
353.8
373.5
396.4
404.8

202.0
208.0
219.8
247.2
265.7
284.7
288.7
300.0
325.0
346,4
353.5
375.8
396.5
405.5

205.5
209.1
224.9
249.8
266.4
287.5
287.7
302.4
326.2
347.8
355.3
378.6
396.9
409.5

206.5
208.1
220.2
252.7
265.8
287.8
286.6
305.5
329.3
348.2
354.6
381.8
400.2
409.6

207.8
207.6
220.7
254.1
268.8
289.1
287.5
308.1
329.8
349.8
355.8
384.0
401.7
412.2

212.0
205.6
221,8
255.9
270.4
290.3
287.7
309.2
331.9
352.4
357.6
385.6
401.9
<415.8

212.8
204.0
226.1
255.5
269.4
289.8
288.2
313.9
331.0
353.9
364.0
386.0
402.8
A19.6

215.2
205.5
230.5
258.4
276.9
289.2
289.8
3U.3
335.6
355.5
363.8
383.4
403.3
418.8

215.4
208.7
232.7
258.9
279.7
289.1
291.6
316.5
337.9
354.5
365.7
383.9
403.8
419.8

53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (Annual rate, bil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961

56.4
58.2
54.9
69.9
76.3
85.8
83.3
85.7
^-4.8
101.5
97.6
103.2
111.2
106.4

56.2
57.7
54.6
71.0
76.9
86.7
83.5
86.6
95.0
102.4
95.5
104.1
111.5
106.1

56.9
56.4
56.7
72.2
77.4
87.6
83.1
87.9
95.6
102.3
95.3
105.7
111.0
106.6

55.9
55.6
58.2
73.5
76.5
87.8
82.5
88.7
97.2
101.9
94.0
107.2
111.2
107.6

57.1
55.2
59.8
73.4
77.2
88.0
82.8
90.1
96.6
101.4
93.9
108.4
111.6
108.6

57.9
54.2
60.9
73.9
76.4
87.6
82.5
90.4
97.3
102.1
95.0
108.9
110.9
110.5

58.8
54.3
62.7
73.9
73-8
88.1
81.9
91.2
95.8
102.0
96.0
108.3
110.6
110.9

59.7
53.8
64.7
73.7
79.3
87.6
81.9
91.1
98.4
102.3
97.5
105.7
109.7
111.5

59.4
54.7
65.0
74.0
82.3
86.2
81.6
91.9
99.6
101.3
98.6
105.5
108.8
110.2

59.4
52.4
67.3
73.7
83.2
86.5
83.0
92.9
101.0
100.6
98.1
105-0
108.8
113.0

59.6
53.0
68.3
74.5
84.4
85.2
84.8
94.3
100.8
100.1
101.7
106.1
107.4
114.8

58.9
54.0
69.2
75.8
85.7
84.4
85.2
94.5
102.3
98.8
102.2
109.8
104.7
115.2

57. Final sales— series 49 minus series 21 (Annual rate, bil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961

...

244.7
258.5
263.6
307.5
334.3
361.8
363.2
381.6
404.6
434.8
440.1
470.1
493.1
507.1

...
...

250.5
260.5
270.6
310.6
341.4
,64.3
363.1
388.3
411.9
437.6
443.4
477.8
500.8
512.8

...
...

256.4
258.8
288.2
322.4
341.3
365.1
366.9
396.5
416.5
U3.1
451.3
483.6
501.1
520.4

...

...

259.6
260.3
289.4
331.8
352.3
365.3
372.1
-401.7
425.2
U3.7
460.3
48-4.2
505.7
532.2

...

95. Surplus (+) or deficit (-) , Federal income and product account (Annual rate, bil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961

...

,

Digitized72
for FRASER


+13.7
+0.8
-4.8
+18.0
+0.1
-4.5
-10.5
+1.3
+6.3
+4.3
-8.1
-4.2
+7.1
-4.9

...
...

+10.6
-2.9
+7.6
+8.2
-3.8
-6.2
-6.6
+4.0
+ 5.5
+2.5
-12.4
+0.8
+ 5.6
-A. 5

•••
...

+5.9
-3.9
+16.4
+0.1
-7.6
-5.7
-5.0
+5.0
+4.9
+2.6
-10.8
-1.0
+1.5
-Lft

...
...

+3.4
-3.9
+17.1
-1.3
-3.7
-11.7
-1.8
+6.0
+6.0
-1.5
-9.8
-0.6
-0.6
-1 .9

...

Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Cont.'nued

Each month historical data are presented for series that either have not been shown here previously or have "been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index.
Current data are shown
in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.

Jan..

Year

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

39.0
42.8
41.7
69.7
68.1
74.7
69.6
70.0
76.9
88.5
92.3
93.6
92.9
108.1

44.7
43.0
41.5
68.0
75.8
74.0
55.0
71.1
79.2
78.1
93.2
97.2
101.1
106.5

Dec.

82. Federal cash payments to the public (Ann, rate, Ml, dol.)
194B
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961

35.1
39.2
42.8
44.0
71.5
68.9
70.7
72.3
72.1
77.7
81.2
100.2
93.2
95.2

.,

33.8
40.5
45.4
46.3
68.2
77.0
67.2
68.4
71.0
88.3
83.5
98.1
93.7
98.5

36.0
41.7
43.8
48.0
70.9
77.9
69.2
74.8
72.0
83.8
83.7
90.8
92.8
104.7

30.4
39.9
44*1
50.9
74.0
80.7
66.7
73.8
73.1
85.5
82.5
95.7
95.4
105.6

31.1
44.0
41.3
59.1
66.2
84.1
71.6
74.1
71.2
80.6
85.1
97.4
94.8
107.7

39.3
43.5
39.2
52.8
70.3
90.0
70.9
65.7
76.1
85,7
87.7
93.5
92.1
108.6

34.5
-41.1
41.8
63.6
60.7
77,8
70.2
74.1
72,3
84.7
94.8
96.7
95.4
98.3

37.0
44.8
36.0
63.8
77.7
76.4
86.6
74.9
72.7
82.8
87.6
95.9
94.1
112.8

37.9
46.6
39.4
63.9
71.5
77,8
69.5
75.1
73.3
82.7
97.9
94.7
95.0
103.8

45.1
44.0
45.3
64.5
86.5
65.9
68.1
71.4
86.5
82.1
96.4
92.2
95.9
105.4

83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Qtrly. or monthly at ann. rate, Ml. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955......
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961

73.5
76.6
81.2
82.8
81.7
93.6
95.6

46.6
40.9
38.4
56.8
68.6
71.0
72.8
64.1
74.6
80.8
81.9
84.3
96.5
95.5

71.8
87.7
87.0
81.3
78.2
97.9
93.2

69.8
79.6
85.5
75.0
84.0
99.6
96.7

45.4
38.6
39.2
58.4
74.7
69.5
70.4
69.4
78.6
85.0.
81.1
85.4
101.8
98.9

72.5
84.0
87.2
86.3
83.1
- 95.2
98.3

71.5
87.8
84.4
84.1
90.8
95.1
92.4

43.3
43.3
45.3
61.8
70.0
71.7
64.2
75.9
76.1
83.6
77.2
90.9
101.3
100.6

68.0
74.1
84.9
80.0
93.4
99.5
101.1

72.7
85.6
88.6
83.4
90.3
92.3
99.3

84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Qtrly. or monthly at ann. rate, Ml.
1948
1949'.
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961

+1.2

+4.5
+3.5
+1.6
-18.5
+0.4
+0.4

+11.6
+0.4
-5.6
+10.7
-1.6
-3.6
+3.7
-4.3
+3.6
-7.5
-1.6
-13.8
+2.8
-3.0

-3.0
+15.7
+3.2
-2.4
-12.6
+ 5.1
-11.5

-4.0
+6.5
0.0
-7.5
-11.7
+4.2
-8.9

+11.8
-3.9
-2.2
+4.1
+4.5
-15.5
+0.6
-4.7
+7.4
+4.4
-4.0
-12.0
+7.0
-8.8

+6.8
+7.9
+1.5
-1.4
-10.4
+3.1
-10.3

-2.6
+15.5
-0.3
-10.7
-5.9
-0.3
-5.9

+6.9
-0.8
+6.3
-2.0
+0.1
-5.7
-11.2
+1.0
+3.4
+0.8
-10.4
-5.0
+7.2
-12.2

-7.1
+0.8
+2.2
-17.9
-1.3
+4.5
-2.7

+2.7
+8.7
+0.1
-8.9
-3.3
-0.6
-8.8

44.3
43.5
50.1
63.4
75.1
70.4
65.1
77.2
78.3
78.1
78.7
93.1
100.7
100.6

72.9
76.2
80.6
81.7
95.7
100.1
101.3

dol.)
+1.3
+0.2
+7.3
-4.0
-1.7
-1.2
+0.8
+6.1
-0.9
0.0
-14.5
-4.1
-0.4
-5.9

+1.5
-10.3
-1.5
-14-7
+3.5
+4.2
-4.1

-3.24
+1.08
+2.04
+9.96
+3.84
0.00
+5.52

-3.24
+2.16
+3.12
+6.84
+2.88
+0.96
+1.80

-2.64
+2.64
-1.80
+6.84
-1.68
-2.52
+ 5.88

+2.64
+2.64
-3.48
+1.68
-6.72
+2.52
+A.08

85. Percent change in total U. S. money supply (Annual rate, percent)
1948.
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957........
1958
1959
I960
1961....

..




+3.24
-3.24
+3.24
+5.16
+3.96
-0.96
+1.92
+6.36
+2.64
0,00
-3.48
+4.20
-1,68
+0.8A

-2.16
0.00
+6.48
+4-08
+4.92
+0.96
+0.96
+8.16
0.00
-0.84
+6.24
+3.36
-3.36
+5.0A

-6.36
0.00
+4.32
+5.16
+1.92
+5.64
+0.96

-3.24
+1.08
+7.44
+2.04
+2.88
+2.76
-5.52

-2.16
+2.16
+5.28
+4.08
+3.84
+1.92
+10.32

-2.64
+1.80
+0.84
+2.64
+4.20
-3.36
+1.68

4-2.64
+2.64
0.00
+4.44
+1.68
-0.84
+2.52

+6.24
-1,80
+0.84
+4.32
+4.20
-4.32
+ 3.36

-1.08
-2.16
+4.20
+4.08
+4.80
0.00
+1.80
-1.80
+1.80
-0.84
+7.80
+1.68
-1.68
+2.52

+2.16
-1.08
+5.28
+5.04
+2.88
+0.96
+3.72
+3.60
0.00
+0.84
0.00
+5.88
+2.52
0.00

+1.08
-2.16
+4.20
+5.04
+3.84
+0.96
+3.72
0.00
-2.64
+0.84
+6.12
-4.20
+4.32
+2.52

-1.08
-1.08
+2.04
+8.04
+6.72
-0.96
+1.80
+1.80
+4.44
-2.64
+3.48
-2.52
+1.68
+ 5.0A

-1.08
0.00
+5.16
+6.00
+2.88
+0.96
+ 5.52
+1.80
+0.84
-2.64
+5.16
-3.36
0.00
+ 3.36

73

Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued

Each month historical data are presented for series that either have not been shown here previously or have been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix" are given in the index.
Current data are shown
in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

-1.68
+0.84
+2.40
+9.12
+5.76
+2.04
+4.68

-2.40
+1.68
+3.12
+6.72
+3.60
+2.76
+2.04

-0.60
+3.24
+1.20
+6.48
-1.20
+2.88
+7.44

+2.64
+2.52
0.00
+2.28
-3.96
+6.24
+5.28

98. Percent- change in money supply and time deposits (Annual rate, percent)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961


74


+3.24
-1.68
+2.40
+3.96
+4.44
+1.44
+3.48
+6,00
+1.32
+4.44
-1.20
+6.36
-2.28
+4.44

0.00
0.00
+6,48
+2,40
+6.00
+2.16
+3.48
+7.32
0.00
+2.52
+14.28
+2.28
-4.08
+10.56

-4.80
0.00
+3.24
+3.96
+3.00
+6.36
+3.48
-1.32
+2.64
+4.44
+9.84
+4.08
-1.68
+4.44

-2.40
+1.68
+6.48
+2.28
+3.72
+3.48
-0.72
+3.24
+3.24
+1.92
+9.12
+2.88
+1.20
+5.52

-1.68
+2.40
+5.64
+3.84
+4.44
+3.48
+10.32
+4.56
-0.60
+3.72
+7.80
+3.48
-2.28
+7.68

0.00
-0.84
+3.24
+3.84
+5.16
+1.44
+3.36
0.00
+3.24
+1.20
+10.80
+3.48
+1.68
+6.60

+1.68
-0.84
+3.12
+6.12
+3.60
+2.76
+6.12
+3.24
+1.32
+3.72
+4.80
+4.56
+6.36
+5.40

+1.68
-1.68
+2.40
+5.40
+5.04
+2.76
+6.12
0.00
0.00
+3.12
+7.68
-2.28
+8.64
+6.00

-0.84
-0.84
+0.84
+8.40
+7.20
+1.44
+2.04
+3.24
+5.16
+0.60
+3.48
-1.08
+5.64
+7.56

-0.84
0.00
+3.12
+5.23
+3.60
+3.48
+5.40
+1.92
+1.32
+1.20
+4.08
-2.28
+4.56
+6.36

INDEX
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Page numbers)

Charts

Tables

Appendixes

Series
number1

F
1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

A

B

C

D

Page

14
14
13
14
11
14
14
11

30
31
32
37..,
38

10
14
14
14
12

40

15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16

42
43
45
46
47
49

50..
51
52
53
54
55
57
58

16
17
17
17
17
17
16

61
62
64
65
66
67
68

18
18
18
18
18
18
18

56

59

56

59

56
56

59
59

••

••

57

60

57

60

57
57

60
60

58
58
58

61
61
61

58

61

27
26
26
27
24
27
27
25
24
27
27
27
25
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
29

tototototototo •

20
21
22
23
24
25
26
29

f

totototototototo

15
16
17
18
19

12
12
12
13
13
13
13

25
25
25
25
26
26
26
26
26

tototototo

10
11
13

totototototototo

11
11
11
11
11

24
24
24
24
24
24
25
25

tototototototototo

10
10
10
10
10

totototototototo

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9

29
29
29
29
29
29
29

9
9
9
9
9
9
9

30
30
30
30
30
30
30

•••

••

••

••

••

••

••

64
64
64
64
64
64

65
65
65
65
65
65

64
64

65
65

•-

••

68

68

• ..

.-

64
64

65
65

66

••

••

64

65

66

•v

•-

66

..

••

68

66

68
••

68

..

64
64

65
65

66
66

..

68
68

••

64

65

66

••

68

69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
70
69
69
69
70
69
70
69

••

••

64

65

66

••

68

••

••

••

64

65

66

••

68

64
64

65
65

66
66

64
64
64

65
65
65

66

••
••
••

•-

••

••

68
68
68
••

66
66

64
64

65
65

64
64
64

65
65
65

66
66
66

64
64

65
65

66

••

••

63
68
68

68
68
68
68

73
73

72
72

71
71
70
69
69
71
69
69
69
71
69
69

•-

72
72

72
72
72

72
72

69
69
69
69
69
69
69
70
70
69
69
69
69
69
70
70
69
69
69
69
70
70

G

E

73
73
73
73
73
* . 73
73

• . 73
72

72

•*

Issue

68
68
68
*66
*66
65
74

Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.
July
May
July

68
*66
*66
*66
71
*68
64
66

Nov. '64
Aug. '63
Nov. '63
Mar. '64
Aug. '65
June ' 63
June !64
Apr. ,'64

64
71
65
*66
*66
*66
65
74

June !64
Aug. '65
June ' 64
Jan. '64
Dec. '63
Dec. '63
June f»64
June 65

*66
65
*66
*68
74

Oct.
June
Mar.
June

'63
'64
'64
'63

June

' 65

72
68
72
72
*66
*66
70
71

Feb.
Dec.
Feb.
Feb.
Mar.
Feb.
Sept.
Aug.

71
72
72
72
*66
69
72
66

Aug. '65
Mar. '65
Aug. '65
Aug. '65
Oct. '63
Aug. »64
Aug. '65
Apr. '64

65
*68
66
66
70
70
66

June
June
June
June
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.

Page

Issue

'64
'64
'64
'63
' 63
'64
'65

••

••

'65
'64
65
'65
'64
'64
'64
'65

?

'64
' 63
'64
'64
'64
'64
»64

^Appendix G.
•'•See back cover for series titles and sources.




75

SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Continued
(Page numbers)

Charts

Tables

Appendixes

Series
number1

F
1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

A

B

C

D

G

E
Page

Issue

81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89

22
19
19
19
20
22
22
22
22

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

34
31
31
31
32
33
34
34
34

70
69
69
71
71
70
70
71
71

72
72
72

70
73
73
73
73
69
69
69
74

Aug. '64
Aug. '65
Aug. '65
Aug. 165
Aug. '65
Sept. *64
Sept. '64
Sept. <64
July !65

90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99

19
19
19
20
22
19
22
22
20
19

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

31
31
31
32
34
31
34
34
32
32

69
69
69
71
70
71
70
70
71
69

72
72
72

70
70
70
66

Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.

'64
'64
'64
'64

72
66
68
74
66

Aug.
June
Nov.
Aug.
Oct.

'65
'64
»64
'65
'64

110
Ill
112
113
114
115
116
117
118

20
20
20
20
21
21
21
21
21

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

32
32
32
33
33
33
33
33
33

70
70
71
71
69
69
69
69
69

72
72
71
71
71
72
72
72
72

Mar. '65
Feb. '65
July '64
July '64
July »64
July '64
July »64
July '64
July '64

121
122
123
125
126
127
128

23
23
23
23
23
23
23

35
35
35
35
35
35
35

70
70
70
70
70
70
70

66
67
67
67
67
68
68

Oct. !64
Oct. *64
Oct. »64
Oct. '64
Oct. *64
Oct. '64
Oct. '64

72
68
73
72
69
73
72
69
72
73

Mar.
Oct.
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.

••

Dl, 1 mo...
9 mo ...
D5
D6, 1 mo... V
9 mo. . .
Dll
D19, 1 mo..
9 mo. .
D23, 1 mo..
9 mo. . ••

39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39

D34
D35
D36
D4l, 1 mo. .
6 mo. . ••
D47, 1 mo..
6 mo. .
D48
D54, 1 mo. .
9 mo. .
D58, 1 mo.. ••
6 mo. .
D61

39
41
41
40
40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41

••

••

42
42
43
42
42
42
43
43
43
43
43
45
45
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45

•'•See back cover for series titles and sources.

Digitized for
76FRASER


46-7
46-7'
56
46-9
46-9
55
55
48-9
48-9

50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3

48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5

••

72

72

69
70
70
72
70
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69

Page

73
73
73
73
74
74
74
74
74

'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'65
»65
'64
'65
'65

Oct. '64
Nov. »64
Nov. »64
Apr. »65
Oct. '64
Apr. '65
Oct. '64
Nov. '64
Apr. '65
Oct. '64
Apr. '65
Feb. »65
Nov. '64

**

Issue

July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July

'64
'64
'64
'64
»64
'64
'64
'64
'64

TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series "Q* indicates
quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates
data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*)
were included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).-Department
of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics

SONBEftLEADtNGINDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics

32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).-Chicago Purchasing
Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment

*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Departmerrt of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industriaf buildings, floor space
(M).-F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of tne Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
10, Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).--Department Of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q)-- National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted
and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total

37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M).-National Association
of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*38. Index ofnetbusinessformation{M).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15 N B E R R O U G H L Y C O I N C I D E N T I N D I C A T O R S
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M),—Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
*4K Number of employees in nonognculturol establishments (M).-Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonogricultural employment, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rote, total (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-National Industrial Conference
Board
*47. Indexofindustrialproduction(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*U Current liabilities of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over(M).--Dun and BradStreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q),-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M).--Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor,Bureau of Labor Statistics;and
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
18. Profits (before faxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal
Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment

*49. Gross notional product in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of
Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (O^-Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
*5L Bank debits, all standardmetropolitan statistical areas except New York {224 SMSA's)
(M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department Of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
*54. Soles of retail stores {M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities other than farm products and foods (MJ.Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics

7NBERLAGGINGINDICATORS

20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission

*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm,after valuation adjustment (GNP
component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements
to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

(Q).--

*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment

*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

24. Volue of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

*66. Consumerinstallmentdebt(EOM)."Boardof Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure

26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments60 days or longer
(M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagriculturol placements, all industries (MJ.-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census




*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).--Board of Governors Of the
Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross notional product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in
1954 dollars) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics National Income Division
Continued on reverse