Full text of Business Conditions Digest : August 1964
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AUGUST 1964 Business Cycle Developments DATA THROUGH JULY U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF THE CENSUS Business Cycle U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Luther H. Hodges, Secretary Developments BUREAU OF THE CENSUS Richard M. Scammon, Director A. Ross Eckler, Deputy Director Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development AUGUST 1964 Chief Economic Statistician JULIUS SHISKIN DATA THROUGH JULY This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis Division under the direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief, and Samuel L. Brown, Assistant Chief. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are- Series ESI No. 64-8 Feliks Tamm-Computation of business cycle measures, Allan H. Youngj-Selection of seasonal adjustment methods, Eugene Rossidivito-Specifications for computer processing, Betty Tunstall-Collection and compilation of basic data. Subscr ption price is $4 a year ($1 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are 40 cents. 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La. 70130 1508 Masonic Temple Building 333 St. Charles Avenue New York, N.Y. 10001 61st Fl., Empire State Bldg. 350 Fifth Avenue Philadelphia, Pa. 19107 Jefferson Building 1015 Chestnut Street Phoenix, Ariz. 85025 New Federal Building 230 North First Avenue Pittsburgh, Pa, 15222 1030 Park Buildfng 355 Fifth Avenue Portland, Oreg. 97204 217 Old U.S. Courthouse 520 S.W. Morrison Street Reno, Nev. 89502 1479 Wells Avenue Richmond, Va. 23240 2105 Federal Building 400 North 8th Street St. Louis, Mo, 63103 2511 Federal Building 1520 Market Street Salt Lake City, Utah 84111 3235 Federal Building 125 S. State Street San Francisco, Calif. 94102 Federal Building-Box 36013 450 Golden Gate Avenue Santurce, P.R. 00907 Room 628, 60S Condado Ave. Savannah, Ga. 31402 235 U.S. Courthouse and Post Office Building 125-29 Bull Street Seattle, Wash, 98104 809 Federal Office Bldg. 909 First Avenue Preface This report has been prepared to bring together many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent years, hajs been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis . It is intended only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that provide datafor analyzing current business conditions. The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. About 30 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown. The movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted. The exact number of series included for the total and important classes of series may vary from month to month because of additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes . Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports. A complete list of the series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this report. All the data shown are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations appear to exist. The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data for indicators are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series for business cycle studies. Electronic computers are used for many of the computations, thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for around the 22nd of the month following the month of data. 1 New Features and Changes for This Issue A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc. These changes will be listed in this section each month. The changes made in this issue are as follows: 1. Series 68, index of labor co$t per dollar of real corporate gross national product, has been revised for the period 1961 to date + This change reflects the annual revisions in national income accounts made by the Office of Business Economics. 2. Appendix F includes historical data for series 40, 41, 42, 49, 50, 51, 52, 55^ 57, 66, 67, and 81. The September issue of Business Cycle Developments is scheduled for release on September 23. ii Contents Page i ii Preface New Features and Changes for This Issue Descriptions and Procedures Business Cycle Series Method of Presentation Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Analytical Measures of Current Change Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns Charts How to Read Charts 1 , 2 , and 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 . Basic Data Table 1.—Basic Data and Current Changes for Business Cycle Series: 4 Most Recent Months . Chart 1. —Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present .. Table 2.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January 1961 to Present 6 8 22 Analytical Measures Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks * ... Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present , Chart 3. —Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes for 11 Majoj; Economic Activities: January 1961 to Present Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing Activities: January 1961 to Present Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components and Percent of Series Rising: July 1963 to Present 34 35 37 38 41 42 Cyclical Patterns Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change From Specific Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions.. 50 55 58 59 60 Appendixes Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 Appendix B. —Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators. Appendix C.—Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle Series. i Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1963 to December 1964) Appendix E.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 Appendix F. —Historical Data for Selected Series 61 62 63 66 67 68 Index Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes 71 iii Technical Papers and Background Materials To aid users of Business Cycle Developments, technical papers dealing with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this report from time to time. The following papers have been included as part of this program: No. 1. —Summary Description of the X-9 and X - l Q Versions of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix £ in the September 1963 issue) . A new version of this program is scheduled to be released in the fall. Announcement will be made at that time. No. 2. —Business Cycle Indicators — The Known and the Unknown by Julius Shiskin (published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue). This paper explains what is known about business cycle indicators, the problems of using them, and the research needed to improve their usefulness. It was presented at the 34th session of the International Statistical Institute in Ottawa, Canada, on August 24, 1963. No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H. Young (published in May 1964 issue) . This paper is a summary of the technique used at the Census Bureau to adjust monthly series for variations arising from the number of trading or working days in the month. This technique will be included in a new variant of the Census Method II seasonal-adjustment program ( X - l l ) to be released later this year. No. 4. — Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964 issue). This paper describes eight BCD series (6, 20> 24, 25, 64, 65, 96, and 99) which are compiled and seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census, briefly explains their typical business cycle behavior, and gives a comprehensive list of sources of such information. A limited number of copies of these articles are available, free of charge, from the Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C., 20233. Copies for classroom use can usually be provided. iv Descriptions and Procedures Business Cycle Series Intensive research over many years has provided a record of the typical sequence of changes in economic processes during a business cycle; more specifically, a list of significant series that usually lead, those that usually move with, and those that usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. The series have been grouped, in accordance with the NBER classification, as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators. In addition, other series are included in this report for a more complete coverage of the national economy. The series are described as follows: NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below) . For this reason, they are designated as "leading" series. One group of these series pertains to activities in the labor market, another to orders and contracts, and so on. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators .—About 15 series are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. For this reason they are r e f e r r e d to as "roughly coincident" series . NBER Lagging Indicators.—Some series, such as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate economic activity, and for this reason, they are designated as "lagging" series . Other series.—Additional U.S. series with business cycle significance are also shown. Some of these series, such as change in money supply, merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries whichhave important trade relations with the United States are presented. Method of Presentation Data are shown in this report in three general categories, as follows! Basic data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2 ) . — O v e r 50 business cycle indicators and about 30 additional series with business cycle significance are included. Together they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations. Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 3-6).— These measures aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the business cycle and the extent of current changes in different parts of the economy. They also aid in pointing to developments in particular industries and. places . Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . — The current cyclical change is compared with changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle. In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,, key information, and adjustment factors. Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points The historical business cycle turning points are those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning point will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred. Seasonal and R e l a t e d Statistical Adjustments Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this report wherever they are available. However, for the special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of Series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series are as follows: 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 30, 37, 55, 62, 81, 82, 83, 84, 90, 91, 92, 97, 112, and 128. Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using Method II. The adjustment factors are shown in appendix table D, except for series 11 and 97 which are the sums of seasonally adjusted components, &nd series 9 and 10 which are based on Descriptions and Procedures unpublished source data. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted for the series mentioned above whenever they are published. Method II adjusts for changes in average climatic conditions and institutional arrangements during the year. Adjustments for variations in the number of trading days are also made for some series; for example, new building permits. Further adjustments for variable holidays, such as Easter, are made for certain series; for example, retail sales of apparel. Studies are now underway to determine whether similar adjustments for Labor Day, Thanksgiving Day, and the day of the week upon which Christmas falls would be useful. Studies of the effects of unusual weather upon some series have also been started. It is important to note, however, that present methods adjust for average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this average; that is, present methods are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal weather at any time of the year. For this reason, many seasonally. adjusted series, such as housing starts, will tend to be low in months when the weather is unusually bad and high in months when the weather is unusually good. While it eventually rnay be possible, Census methods do not at present make any adjustments for such variations. MCD Moving Averages MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually longer than a single month because m on th-r,o-month changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change from the same month a year ago), and is different for different series (see appendix C for MCD values and method of computation) . MCD is, on average, the first interval of months for which the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. The differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally adjusted values separated by the same MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month moving average are commensurate with differences in seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular series, such as business failures and Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for such smooth series as industrial production and personal income. MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an indication of the variation about these moving averages, seasonally adjusted data are also plotted for years beginning with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful moving averages such as th0 weighted 15-term Spencer curve, the MCD cuirve is more current and has a smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and troughis. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a reasonable compromise in terms of CAirrency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations. Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually larger than those computed from historical series and shown in appendix C . MCD is xisually computed for a fairly long period, one covering both expansions and contractions. 1 Since the pace of change varies from phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will not provide an .accurate estimate of the span over which to estimate Cyclically significant changes at all times. Thus MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely to be tpo high during the early stages of recovery when expansion has usually been rapid and too low during the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance has usually been small. This limitation should also be borne in mind when making use of this measure, 2 Analytical Measures of Current Change Three kinds of analytical measures are presented— Diffusion indexes, timing distributions, and direction^ of-change tables. These measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, the imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and the extent of current changes in different parts of the economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places . Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of groups of economic series. They express, for a given group, the percent of the series which has risen over given intervals of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the aggregate and they measure how widespread a business change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling) . Widespread increases are often associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity, and widespread declines with sharp reductions. The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped according to the timing classification of the NBJ£R. For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1 -month intervals (January-February, FebruaryMarch, etc.) and generally for either 3- or 5-month intervals depending upon the irregularity of the 1 Various terms are used to describe the phases of the business cycle. In this report both "contraction" and "recession" are used to describe the declining phase. No difference in meaning is intended. 2 For a more complete description of MCD and its use in studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," by Juliu$ Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 1961). Descriptions and Procedures series. The indexes based on 1-month intervals are more "current" but they are also more irregular than the 3- or 5-month indexes ( s e e chart 2) . Quarterly series are compared over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals. Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate diffusion indexes. ' When one of these numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series number, it means that the diffusion index has been computed from components of the indicator series; for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from components of series number 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new numbers . This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based on 15 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Eighteen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9 indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D58) . Indexes for these indicators show comparisons for components over 1-month and either 3- or 5-month spans. The 11 other diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely related to the above 9 indicators. They include two National Industrial Conference Board indexes ( 1 - and 3quarter spans) based on newly approved capital appropriations ( 17 industries); the First National City Bank of New York index based on quarterly profit reports (700 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers' sales (800 companies) and new orders (400 companies), based on data from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings ( 19 commodity groups), based on data from the Association of American Railroads; and new plant and equipment expenditures ( 16 industries), based on data from the Office of Business Economics and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations show what proportion of business enterprises (or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag in recognition of actual developments . Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of current data are often highly irregular and require careful judgment in their use and interpretation. Timing distributions .—Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution is constructed which shows the number of series reaching high values during each month of the expansion. The timing distribution is summarized by showing the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table 3) . Similar distributions of "lows" will be prepared during contractions. To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and at their peaks . To compile timing distributions for the current cyclical phase, the data for the principal business cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a business cycle expansion, the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted series, that is series with negative conformity to the business cycle, low values are taken during expansions and high values during contractions.) If the values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date is taken as the high month. In selecting these values, erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month. The letter "H" is used in the basic data table (table 2) to identify and highlight the current high values during the expansion, and the letter "L11 to identify the low values preceding the current highs. The highs designated during the current cyclical phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those for periods around earlier business cycle troughs and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective business cycle turning point. Interpretations of timing distributions must be made in light of the fact that a contraction following a high value reached several months ago may be the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be reached in some future month. In. short, when the percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so, but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in the upward movement. Direction-of^change tables. —Direction-of-change tables show directions of change ("+" for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes. These tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, they show which economic activities went up, which went down, and how long such movements have persisted. They also help to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another. Directions of change for each index component are shown for consecutive months and, depending upon the irregularity of the series, for either 3- 01 5-month spans . Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns In forming a judgment about the current intensity and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion indexes in the current business cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle—whether it is in an expansion or contraction. Descriptions and Procedures Expansions may be compared by measuring changes from the immediately preceding peak levels , In table 7 of this report, the current expansion is measured from the May I960 reference peak to the month of latest reported data. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are computed from their respective reference peaks to dates which are the same number of months beyond the succeeding reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison is designated as representing changes computed trom reference peak levels and from reference trough dates . Although the spans from reference trough dates are the same number of months for each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak dates are different, depending on the length of the contractions for each period. Also, for those earlier periods of expansion that were shorter than tha current one, the comparisons made in table 7 reflect the status at a point after a new contraction had set in. This type of comparison answers the question whether, and by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how the current situation compares, in this respect, with earlier expansions. Expansions also may be compared by computing changes from reference trough levels and from reference trough dates Stable 8) . This type of comparison measures the extent of the rise from the trough level so many months after the upswing began. The same situation exists here as for the comparisons shown in table 7: For earlier expansions that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons show the status at a point after a new contraction had set in. Contractions can be compared by computing changes over the span from the most recent business cycle peak to the current month and over equal spans from previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is designated as representing changes from reference peak levels and from reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made during a contraction period. In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the basi& of reference dates (which are the same for all series), comparisons are made on the basis °^ specific peak and trough dates identified for each series. For example, the specific peak in retail sales corresponding to the May I960 r e f e r ence peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock prices is July 1959 (See appendix B) . Specific cycle comparisons are shown in table 9. These comparisons differ from those shown for reference cycles in that they show the status only up to the specific peak date. For some series past specific expansions were shorter than the current one and, therefore, the earlier comparisons span fewer months than those for the current expansion. In order to make historical comparisons, it is frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only approximate. Nearly all series have undergone change in definition, coverage, or estimation pro ce<iure since 1919. soft are as follows: The principal eases of this 7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space) 41, Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in manufacturing) 52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data as published by Barger and Klein) 54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales) 62, Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production worker wage cost per unit) . Charts TwO, types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators: Historical time series and cyclical comparisons. Historical Time_Se_ries (charts 1 , 2 , and 3) .— These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of each series against the background of expansions and recessions in general business activity from 1948 to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates (ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession will be entered only after a trough has been designated. Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series. The scale selected for each scries is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series can be compared with each other only where scales are identical. Sec the diagram, p&ge 5, for additional help in using these charts. Cyclical ^Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) .—These charts compare the performance of each series during the current expansion with its performance during the Expansion phase of previous business cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts is disregarded, and instead the data are alined at the strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions, the reference trough (chart 4) and specific trough (chart 5) . Thus these charts facilitate judgements on the vigor of the current expansion relative to cyclical movements during the corresponding expansions of previous cycles. Two types Of cyclical comparisons are made. Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current business or reference cycle ( i . e . , t h e cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the corresponding phase of previous reference cycles. Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current sj>ecific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series) with the movements over the corresponding phases of previous specific cycles in that series. In both charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, the levels of the preceding peaks are also alined and in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs are also alined. See the section, "Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions of these comparisons. Descriptions and Procedures (Apr.) Peak fP) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated by NBER Solid line indicates monthly data. (Such data may be the table-2 figures, MCD moving averages, or diffusion indexes-charts 2 and 3.) Para I lei lines indicate a break in cqntinuity--e.g., data not available, change in sample reported, change in base used for computations, etc. (May) (Feb.) Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of .Expansion fwhite areas) as designated by .Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted ("5"= May) Broken lines indicate table-2 data for series where an MCD moving overage* is plotted Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted ("I" = first quarter) See back cover for complete titles and sources of series Dotted line indicates anticipated Solid line with quarterly plotting points indicates quarterly data Various ratio and arithmetic scales ore used to highlight the cyclical timing and patterns for each series; where different scales are used, the rates of change are not comparable from series to series, "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale; "scale L-l" is a semtlogarithm scale with 1 cycle; "'scale L-2", a semtlogarithm scale with 2 cycles, etc. *Certoin irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages, These series are noted. Such averages are plotted 2 months behind actual data for MCD 5-term moving averages and 2X2 months behind, for MCD 6-term moving averages. See text for description of MCD moving averages. Basic Data Table 1.--BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS Basic data1 Series descriptions (See complete titles and sources on back cover) 1. 2. 30. 3. 4. 5. Unit of measure NBER LEADING INDICATORS Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg... Accession rate, manufacturing .... ... Nonagri. placements, all industries. Layoff rate, manufacturing Temporary layoff, all industries...* Avg. weekly initial claims, State Hours Per 100templ Thous Per 100 empl Apr. 1964 Percent change2 June 1964 May 1964 July 1964 Avg, change, 195319633 Bil. dol,... ..do Mil. sq. ft. floor space Bil. dol..., * .do 7n Private nonfarm housing starts...... Ann. rate, thous 1957-59»1QO. Thous . . . . ... Number Mil. dol.... 29. New bldg. permits, private housing.. 12. Net change, number of businesses4 5. 13 . New bus iness incorporat ions 14. Liabilities of business failures..., 15, Large business failures 16. Corporate profits after taxes4 No. per week. Ann. rate, bil. dol... 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg,. 1957-59=100.. 18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg,4.... Cents. 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries4..,. Percent 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*.... 1941-43=10... 21. Change in business inventories, all Ann. rate,' industries4 5 bil. dol.... 31. Change in book value, manufacturing 40.7 r3.8 533 1.7 104 40.6 P3.9 516 pl.5 117 p40.6 (NA) 523 (NA) 129 0.5 4.9 1.8 9.5 17.8 260 6. New orders, durable goods indus 24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus.. 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial. 10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip.. 11. New capital appropriations, mfg,4... 40.7 4.0 522 1,6 122 260 259 261 5.3 20.46 3.61 rl9.94 r3.93 r98 !.0 r3.88 54.84 4.37 46.22 r4.63 1501 111.1 r!507 110. 3 +17 15932 90.44 16242 98.50 CNA) -0.8 p21.1Q P3.84 3.6 — ? 5 -0.7 4.5 +6^9 -1.3 +6.6 -1.0 48.22 P4.59 (NA) (NA) 9.7 -15.7 +4.3 4.9 +5.9 -0.9 11.6 (NA) (NA) (NA) rl570 rll6.4 PH95 P109.5 15797 153.07 (NA) (NA) 39 38 43 103.8 31.7 rlOj.7 r0. !30 p!03.2 10,6 79.94 80.72 +0.4 -0.7 +1 -1.9 +8.2 +4.2 +5.5 -4,8 -5.9 -0.8 -69.3 (NA) (NA) 13.1 +15.2 +2.6 -13.2 6.3 +1.6 0.7 -0.1 -0.7 6.8 (NA) +Q.2 7.3 3.8 2 2.7 16.9 5.1 +1.9 2.6 +1.0 80.24 83.22 +7.5 r+l.d pfl.5 (NA) -1.0 r-0.1 pO.O (NA) Percent 55 51 56 58 6.8 ..do 59 58 59 58 ..do 60 63 55 59 20. Change in book value, rafrs." inventories of materials and supplies5,. . • do. .,,**.,. 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -5.0 +2*6 (NA) +2.1 -3.2 +1,4 -6.2 +11,6 (NA) +14. 8 -12,5 -10.3 0.0 +0.4 46 (NA) Apr. May June to to to May June July 1964 1964 1964 -0.6 +3.7 3.5 -5.9 -0.1 (NA) 1.5 +0.9 +0.1 (NA) -7.3 +9.B +3.6 5.8 -1.7 +1.7 -1.7 7.7 +5.0 -12.7 +7.3 2.5 +1.2 r+3.7 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories « 26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer* 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries* 25. Chang'e in unfilled orders, durable goods industries5 23. Industrial materials prices*. .,**.., Bil. dol 1957-59*100.. +1.04 102.4 r+0.38 100.9 r+0.56 101.4 p+1.15 102.5 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagri. establishments. 42, Total nonagricultural employment,,.. 43 . Unemployment rate, total 40,. Unemployment rate, married males.... 45. Avg. weekly insured unemplojs-, State. Thous . . . . .... . .do Percent . . , . •do. ••*••••• ..do 58502 65811 5.4 2.9 3.8 r58590 65889 5.1 2.6 3.6 rS8750 65549 5.3 2.8 3.6 P58888 65706 4.9 2.7 3.6 0.3 0.4 4.2 6.0 4.8 +0.3 -0.5 -3.9 -7.7 0.0 +0.2 +7.5 +3.6 0.0 120 r!30.5 118 r!31.3 121 r3. !17 p!24 P132.7 3.1 -1.7 +2.5 1.1 +0.6 +0.3 +2.5 +0.8 47. Industrial production 50. GNP in 1954 dollars4 49. GNP in eirrent dollars4 57. Final sales4 1957-59«100.. ..do Ann. rate, bil. dol,... ..do 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., cons tr.. ..do. 54. Sales of retail stores Mil. dol 55. Wholesale prices, except farm prod1957-59=100.. 2313.0 487.8 125.8 r21777 101.1 101.1 +0.2 +0.1 +5.6 +10.3 +5.3 +0.2 1.3 +1.1 1.5 +1.6 1.3 +1.4 r513.5 r6l8.6 r6l4.9 2451.3 486.6 125.9 21392 0.49 -0.66 +0.1B +0.59 1.3 -1.5 +0.5 +1.1 r2328,8 P2430.9 r489.3 P490.8 r2. ! 6 4 p!26.7 r2l675 p21928 rldl.O plOl.2 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.2 -5.6 +0.2 -0.1 +1.8 +0.7 +0.3 +0.5 -0.5 +4.4 +0.3 0.0 -0.1 +0.2 +0.2 +1.2 Basic Data Table 1.-BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS-Continued Basic data1 Series descriptions (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Unit of measure Apr. 1964 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 61. Business expenditures, new plant Ann. rate, and equipment* bil. dol 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.. 1957-59=100., 68. Labor cost per dollar of real cor64. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories.,.. Eil. dol 65, Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of finished goods. * ...do 66. Consumer installment debt Mil. dol 67. Bank rates on short-term business Percent, . . . . Percent change2 June 1964 May 1964 JUly 1%4 Avg. Apr. May June change, to to to 1953- May June July 3 1964 1964 1964 1964 97.5 a43.35 r97.5. r98.0 p98.0 3.2 0.6 +1.9 0.0 +0.5 0.0 6(X5 104.9 r60.5 p60.4 (NA) 0.9 0.5 +0.7 0.0 -0.2 (NA) 21.6 54727 r21.6 55220 , p21.4 55590 (NA) (NA) 0.8 0.8 0.0 -0.9 +0.9 +0.7 (NA) (NA) 2.3 4.99 0.0 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE 82. Federal cash payments to public Ann. rate, bil. dol.... Federal cash receipts from public... . ,do. •«*••».. 5 Federal cash surplus or deficit .... . .do. Balance, Federal income and product account* 5 »*.* ..do Defense Dept. oblig. , procurement... Mil. dol 123.2 126.6 +3.4 110.3 105.1 -5.2 120.0 114-4 -5.6 1516 -9.2 2192 (NA) 4592 2529 2.37 +162 +0.32 4941 2465 r2.48 r+78 -0.13 (NA) (NA) r2.13 +118 +0.71 +0.44 +0.30 ; +0.81 +l".81 (NA) (NA) r+5.60 r+3.88 +4.94 3.48 4.20 4.49 3.28 +5.92 3.48 4.16 4.48 3.20 5.45 86. Exports, excluding military aid..... Mil. dol, . • , , 2046.0 1542.1 ..do +503.9 ..do 89. U.S. balance of payments* 5 1957-59*100.. • .do. . . , , .«.. 94. Construction contracts, value 96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus... Bil. dol 6 97. Backlog of capital appro, mfg. • . do ••••«,,*• 83. 84. 95, 90. 91. -Defense Dept, obligations, total.... 92. Military contract awards in U.S , • do ••••«•••• 99* New orders, defense products Bil. dol 5 Mil. dol 93. Free reserves* 98. Change in money supply and time deAnn. rate, bil. dol.... ..do ..do 5 113. Change, consumer installment debt .. * .do. Percent 117. Municipal bond yields* *., ..do ..do 107.9 138 48.84 126.9 116.4 -10.5 5.7 -10.5 5.4 -17.0 5.6 -8.6 +8.8 +8.8 -0.4 +5.8 +1.7 -4.9 2.5 -6.8 26.9 +44.6 (NA) 15.1 26.2 P3.07 23.3 P+135 104.2 p+0.71 0.23 p+0.73 0.21 +7.6 -2.5 +4.6 -84 -0.45 (NA) (NA) -14.1 +44.1 +40 +17 +0.84 0.00 -0.14 +0.51 -0.08 +3.84 11.6 (NA) 8.6 (NA) 1.22 +3.79 -1.72 -0.04 +4.44 3.48 4.13 4.49 3.20 (NA) 3.48 4.13 4.43 3.18 0.85 +0.98 -1.48 0.0 0.0 7.3 1.8 -1.0 -0.7 1.7 -0.2 +0.2 2.6 -2 4 0.0 (NA) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -0.6 5.45 2052.1 1548.1 +504.0 p-789 5.45 2004.3 1505.5 +498.8 5.46 (NA) (NA) (NA) .58 4.6 3.6 59.0 286 0.0 0.0 +0.3 -2.3 +0.4 -2.8 +0.1 -5.2 -714 +0.2 (NA) (NA) (NA) 108.0 138 r49.22 108.1 138 r49.78 (NA) (NA) (NA) P50.94 0.2 7.0 1.5 5.9 +0.1 +0.1 0.0 0.0 +0,8 +1.1 (NA) (NA) (NA) +2.3 r » revised; p » preliminary; e « estimated; a » anticipated; NA * not available. 1 Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series indicated by an asterisk ( ) that appear to contain no sea*, sonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2. 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g., if the rate of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as -tO.6. See footnote 5 for other "change" qualifications. 3 This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-63 for most series. *Qiarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter, 5 Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent. 6 End-of-quarter series. Figures are placed in the last month of quarter. Basic Data BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT NBER Leading Indicators (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators 1. Avg. workweek, prod. wkrs.. info 2. Accession rnte, mfg, (per 100 employees) 30. Nonagri. placements, oil indus. (rti 3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees inverted scale) 4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.—inverted scole. MCD moving avg.-s-S-term •":"••?? 5- Avg. weekly initial claims, Stafe unempl insur. (thous.—inverted scalej 1 94 8 1 949 1 950 1 95 1 1 952 1 953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5, 1 954 1 955 1 956 1 957 1 958 1 959 1 960 1 961 1 962 1 963 1 964 Basic Data BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. NBER Leading Indicators—Con. (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (Aug.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol.) New investment commitments 24. New orders, moch. and equip, Indus, (bil. dol.) 9. Constr. contracts, com. and Indus, {mil. $q- ft. of floor area. MCD moving avg.--6-te 10. Contracts and prders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.) New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bif. dol.) 7. Private nonform housing vstarts (millions. MCD moving avg.--6-term 29. New bUg. permits, pr w otcg. perrmrs, private housing units dex: 1957-59-fOO) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 10 Basic Data BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. NBER Leading Indicators—Con. (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P Now businesses ond business failures (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Fab.) P T ; 12. Change, no. of businesses (thous. 13= New bus. I ncorpOrations (thous.) '. . Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.-inverted scale, MCD nloving avg,--6-terrn) 15. Large bus. failures (no. p$r wk.-inverted scale. MCD moving ovg.—6-term) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Basic Data 11 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. NBER Leading Indicators—Con. (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (Aug.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T Profits ond stock prices | 16, Corporate profits, after taxes, Q (bit. dol. 17. Ratio, price to unit abor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59-100) 18, Profits per dollar of sales, mfg., Q (cents) A. 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries, Q (percent) 19. Stock prices 500 common stocks • ' (index: 1941-43-10) -1 20 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 1964 12 Basic Data BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. NBER Leading Indicators—Con. (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (May) (F.b.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices 21. Change i n bus. inventories, all indus,, Q (bil. dol.) 31. Change in book value, mfg. and trade tnventoriesfAnn, rate, bil. do!,MCD moving avg.--4-term 20. Change in book value, mfrs.1 inventorie materials, and suppliesfAnn. rate, bil. MCD moving ovg.-5-term ) 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 da s or longer 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries 25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. MCD moving ovg.--4-ter.-n ) || | dol. 23, Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59^100) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 19£9 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Basic Data 13 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. NBER Roughly Coincident I n d i c a t o r s (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T Em loyment and unemployment 41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (millions) 42. Total nonagr. employment (millions) 43. Unemployment mte (percent—inverted scale) i-!1 ;!:•'•• 40. Unemployment rate, married males (percent—inverted scale) 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale) 46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59 = 1QO') 1 * ' ' '""" 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read CKarts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 1964 14 Basic Data BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con. (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Au».) T (May) (Fob.) P T 47. Industrial production {index: 1957-5 =000) 50. GNP in 1954 dollars, Q (b,I. dol.) 49. GNP in current dollars, Q (bil. dot,) 57. Final sales, Q (bil. dof.) -J 250 194 8 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How io Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Basic Data 15 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. NBER R o u g h l y C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s — Con. (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 2.4 2.2 2,0 1 • 51. Bank debits outside NYC (trif 1 1.8 1.6 500 450 ~ ^i ~B 400 * 52. Personal income (bil. dol.) 350 130 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (biL dol.) 120 ^ 110 J! o too 9< 2. 54. Sales of retail stores (bil. 20 dot.) 16 14 110 55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods (index: 1957-59=100) 100 90 80 194 8 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5, 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Basic Data 16 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. NBER Lagging Indicators (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T I I I- * i (May) (F.b.) I I P T I T: H 61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (bit. dol.) [investment expenditures 62. Lobor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59"100) I Cost per unit of output | 68. Labor cost per dol. of r$al corp. GNP, Q (index: 1957-59 100) ok value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.) 65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol,) 66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.) ivU 67. Bank rotes on short-term bus, loans, Q (percent) 1948 U>49 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Basic Data 17 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. CHART 1 P ^ Other U.S. S e r i e s with B u s i n e s s Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (Aug.) T (July) (Apr.) P T [Federal budget and military commitments):^;; (May) (Feb.) P T 82. Fed cash payments to public (bil. dol MCD moving avg.«6 term) e . cash receipts r o m p u 83. Fed. c a s r e c e p s from public (bil. dol MCD moving avg.—6-term) 84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol. MCD moving avg.--6-t.erm) 95- Surplus or deficit. Fed. income and product acct., Q (bil. dol.) 90. Defense Dept. oblig.. procurement (bil. dol. I;:::1 .--6-term) fcttf. 91. Defense Dept. obliq., total (bil. MCD moving.avg.--6-term) f l! dol. ; 92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. MCD moving ovg."6-term)fl dol. ':'•'; 99, New orders, defense products (bil. dol •''• : MCP moving avg.--6-term) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See 'How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 18 Basic Data BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. I CHART 1 | | [u| Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance—Con. (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Au9.) T (May) (F.b.) P T Reserves, money supply and financing [ ;:Vi". V : 93. Free reserves (fail, dol.) 85. Change in money supply (percent MCD moving avg,--6-term . r 98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent • MCD moving avg.--6-term /.^ 110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) r=v' :yJT; < 111. Corporate gross savings (Ann. rate, bil. dol. 112. Changes in bank loans to businesses (Ann. rate, bil. dol. MCD moving avg.-5-term) H3. Change in consumer installment debt. (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 1, and 3," pope 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 i960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Basic Data 19 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. CHART 1 D • Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance—Con. (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T 114. Treasury bill rate (percent) 115. Treasury bond yields percent) m 116. Corporate bond yields (percent) .; . ••';., 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3/fage 5, 1954 117. Municipal bond yields (percent) 118. Mortgage yields (percent) 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 20 Basic Data BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1$48 TO PRESENT—Con. Other U.S. S e r i e s with B u s i n e s s Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e -Con, (Nov.) P (July) P (Oct.) T (May) (Feb.) (July) (Apr.) (Aug.) T P T P T 86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol.) 87. General imports (bil. dol.) e trade balance (bil. 89. Excess of receipts or payments ••^.U.S. balance of payments, Q (bi prices (index: 1957-59=100) 94. Construe on contracts, value (index: MCDmo lied orders, dur. goods ind 97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q /bil. dot.] ** f \\ -16 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3,* page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Basic Data 21 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. CHART 1 E )• I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o m p a r i s o n s of Industrial Production (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 1 ^ HUO - ii.1 47. United States {index: 1957-59-100}. 160., 140 j S 123. Canada (index: 1957-59-100) 120 122. United Kingdom 'jndex: 1957-59-100) ,140 2 "o 120 - Js 1 160 H1 2 1 I: :--.--:: 140 ^ 121. OECD countries {mdcx: 1957-59-100) 120 160 « U °i 120 8 240 220 200 st Germany {index: 1957-69=100) 180 2 > 160 | 128. Japan {index; 1957-59-100) 140 120 160 140 j 1?6. France (index: 1957-59^100) 120 180 160 140 120 100 90 -180 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1933 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 § 22 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ( and current highs, by GD; the reverse is *. D true for Inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40j 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e(l, estimated; "a", anticipated; and !'NA", not available. NBER Leading Indicators 1. Avg. work-2. Accession week, produc- rate, manution workers, facturing2 manufacturing1 Year and month (Hours) 1961 January March April May. ,, June .*.,...*,.. July. * » . . . . ... AUgU*? 1 1 . , , r t . . . September November 1962 January* * March April May...., , . . . .,. JulV September, * . . .. October November * December. . . . ... 1963 March April ,, , .. j%Y June » . , July October November December , . . . ... 1964 February. . . . ... March April May July , AuiniS't §ftp"fcfinoib$r „ , (Per 100 employees) 30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff rate, manucultural placements, facturing all industries (Per 100 (Thous . ) employees) 4. Persons on temporary layoff, all industries3 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance4 6. New orders, durable goods industries 24- New orders, machinery and equipment industries 5 (Thous.) (Thous.) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 39.2 39.4 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.8 39.9 40.0 39.8 40.3 40.6 40.3 3.9 3.8 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.8 [). E44 4.3 4.1 ©444 447 459 448 469 494 493 512 507 524 540 551 2.9 ©2.9 2.4 2.1 2.2 2,2 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.0 173 ©222 215 141 150 151 101 136 127 113 115 127 393 ©429 379 381 358 334 348 316 329 304 305 296 ©13,95 14.31 14.53 15.51 15.59 15.89 15.92 16.12 15.97 16.26 16.74 17.26 2.76 2.74 2.71 2.74 2.70 2.80 3.03 3.07 2.88 2.91 2.98 2.96 40.0 40.3 40.6 40.6 40.5 40.4 40.4 4. 02 40.7 40.2 40.4 40.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 557 559 572 574 0592 557 557 550 555 554 563 547 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 135 S88 118 107 126 124 128 127 127 125 133 120 304 291 279 280 300 309 308 303 300 300 298 317 17.70 17.70 17.15 17.02 17.22 16.65 16.91 16.59 16.55 17.29 16.73 17.33 3.15 3.30 2.97 3.31 3.10 3.02 3.07 2.94 2.98 3.05 3.16 3.07 40.4 40.3 40.5 40.1 40.5 40.5 40.4 40.3 40.7 4. 06 40.5 40.5 3.7 3.9 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.9 552 555 553 560 551 541 541 540 552 570 530 532 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 152 121 107 138 95 92 131 13P 10$ 135 134 97 313 294 285 290 286 287 283 285 282 281 280 308 18.47 18.23 18.78 19.04 18.74 17.68 18.28 18.06 18.24 18.62 18.11 17.97 3.25 3.21 3.22 3.35 3.42 3.29 3.33 3.31 3.42 3.44 3.27 3.61 40.1 4. 06 40.7 40.7 ©40.7 40,6 P40.6 3.7 4.0 4.0 40 . r3.a P3.9 (MA) 536 535 520 522 533 516 523 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 0pl.5 (NA) 123 123 91 122 104 117 129 289 264 273 260 260 R259 261 '6 25 19.74 19.50 19.26 20.46 rl9.94 r98 !.0 0P21.10 3.62 3.41 3,46 3.61 (Hjr3.93 r3.S8 P3.B4 December. . . . ... 1 2 CD « December 1 6 . 90 © « October 1 6 . 90 Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962, the 1950 Census Is used as the benchmark. *Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. I © « November 1960. ended August 8. Week Basic Data 23 Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) * . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [ " ; the reverse is H| true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 ) 5. Series numbers are f£r identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", hot available. N3ER Leading Indicators —Continued 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment (Mil. sq. ft. floor space) Year and month (Bil. dol.) 11. Newly ap- 7. New private 29. New priproved capital nonfarm dwel- vate housing units authorappropriations, ling units ized by local 602 manufac- started2 building per^ turing 1 corpomits 2 rations (Bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, thous , ) (1957-59=100) 1,216 1.199 1.305 1,133 1,215 1,340 1,305 1,252 1,453 1,381 1,319 1,324 89.5 88.2 91.3 91*4 93.2 98.7 98.9 101.9 100.2 104.2 101.8 99.0 1,392 1,253 1,460 1,489 1,501 1,366 1,423 1,459 1,328 1,491 1,564 1,541 102.8 109.8 105.0 111.5 103.7 107.1 108.6 106.3 110.2 109.5 114.9 114.5 1,317 1,353 1,549 1,590 1,590 1,554 1,573 1,434 1,697 131,807 1,533 1,518 110.1 108.7 112.7 111.8 117,6 120.6 115.7 111.7 121.4 124.9 121.1 EQ126.2 1,688 1,613 1,638 1,501 rl,507 rl,570 pl,495 116.3 124.3 122.5 111.1 110.3 rll6.4 P109.5 12. Net change 13. New business incorpoin business rations . population, operating businesses (Thous.) (Number) 1961 February torch April May « June July August ......... October November 1962 January March April May » July August. *....... September November December ....... 1963 January March April Miv . * July AuffU£t. . . . . I T . . September * t - - * » October November Deeeniber. , * , T t . 1964 March April May June * .......... July AUTUSt. ........ 36.21 36.49 37.49 35.62 ©35.16 36.73 36.57 39.32 38.73 33.88 41.61 41.69 3.51 3.39 ©3.20 3.28 3.27 3.39 3.57 3.66 3.40 3.48 3.66 3.50 38.70 42.75 45.90 42.72 44.64 41.16 40.56 42.69 40.96 41.08 42.20 41.89 3.71 3.98 3.71 3.96 3.76 3.66 3.72 3.61 3.56 3.66 3.82 3.99 44.61 45.11 39.42 40.23 47.00 51.39 45.78 44.93 43.88 50.81 43.14 U.15 3.84 3.82 3.75 3.98 4.28 3.96 3.94 3.91 4.08 4.17 4.32 04.68 51.64 52.47 48.17 E154.84 46.22 48.22 (NA) 4.37 4.12 4.10 4.37 r4.63 P4.59 (NA) l!84 1^93 2*.23 aiio 2 '.34 2^02 2\& 2.71 2\I6 2.65 03.21 3.20 3^08 (NA) September .*.,.. October November * T t - - T * 1 ( « 3rd quarter I 6 . D 90 2 © * December 1 6 . 90 ©+6 +10 '+9 +11 +ii +12 +11 +11 +11 +11 +13 +12 +16 E+17 ©13,607 14,570 14,658 15,327 15,298 15,431 15,492 15,277 15,402 16,035 16,149 15,881 15,599 15,758 15,670 15,372 15,245 14,947 15,171 15,056 15,249 14,892 14,951 14,985 14,924 15,390 15,563 15,305 15,682 15,536 15,431 16,093 15,689 016,275 15,7-59 15,867 16,193 16,086 16,064 16,242 15,932 15,797 (NA) Basic Data 24 Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted aeries are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by QQ and current highs, by 0; the reverse ;U; *. true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5* 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do riot reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" Indicate revised; "p11, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. NBER Leading Indicators — Continued 14. Current liabilities of business failures1 Year and month (Mil. dol.) 1961 January. ..**... I torch April v'av Jane July .*. September* November 1962 January February March April May June July,, ,. . . , October November *....*. 1963 January . . * * . . , . February March April... . Ifcy June July. , s^ptemb**!*'. » r * . * October November « 1964 January* . , February, „ » . . . . March April May June i.*.. July 18. Profits 15. Business 16. Corpo- 17. Ratio, (before taxrate profits price to failures with liabil- after taxes unit labor es) per dol. ities of ' cost index, sales, all manufactur- mfg. corpo$100,000 and rations over 2 ing (Number per week) (Ann. rate, bil. dol. 38 77.79 83.73 116.17 76.88 82.96 86.69 80.15 94.47 126.12 72.28 119.93 71.81 39 39 42 40 43 36 39 42 39 38 101.53 86.03 77.40 107.15 89. BO 93.15 107.98 121.85 106.02 129.87 96.62 99.61 37 032 36 38 38 41 38 45 40 46 42 37 146.46 93.05 94.12 88.15 115.05 91.07 144.50 ©JS2.86 94.52 99.92 255.72 87.17 49 43 42 40 51 38 39 42 43 42 38 39 87.70 121.87 107.25 98.50 90.44 15,3.07 (NA) 41 42 37 46 39 38 43 a September October * * * . ... * November ... a ... December t ...... 1 2 ( » June 1960. D © « October 1960. Average for August 17, 18, and 19. 3 ©19.5 21.8 22 !6 24.5 24^5 24!9 25.0 25^7 25^5 26.6 26.7 28!i 31 .2 1331.7 (1957-59= 100) 99.3 ©98.8 99.0 100.4 100.4 101.0 101.4 102.0 101.7 101.5 101.7 102.3 101.3 101.7 101.8 100.9 101.1 100.4 100.7 100.7 101.9 100.7 101.1 100.5 100.6 100.8 101.3 101.1 101.8 102.6 102.3 101.5 101.8 101.9 101.9 102.3 103.2 103.3 102.7 (3103.8 r!03.7 r!03.0 p!03.2 (Gents) 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all indue. (Percent) ©6*.o ©7 .9 7.*6 8!6 7^9 8^5 8.6 93 8*.2 9^2 s.'i 9*.i s!i 9*.l s!3 <?!i 7.9 9!l 8^5 9^4 s!5 43 $'.8 9^8 09!l 10.4 (NA) GOIO!O 21. Change in 19. Stock prices, 500 but3 ins os incommon ventories after valuation stocks* 2 adjustment, all indue. (1941-43^10) 59.72 62.17 64.12 65.83 66.50 65.62 65.44 67.79 67.26 68.00 71.08 71.74 69.07 70.22 70.29 68.05 62.99 55.63 56.9? 58.52 58.00 56.17 60.04 62.64 65.06 65.92 65.67 68.76 70.14 70.11 69.07 70.98 72.85 73.03 72.62 74.17 76.45 77.39 78.80 79.94 80.72 80,24 083.22 3 82.36 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) ©-3.9 +i'.i +3.7 +5.6 (E)+6.'9 •*4;i +5!i +5^4 +3\6 +3!6 +4.*2 +6.4 +2!5 r+3.*7 25 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 196(1 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by [BTI; the reverse is *. true for inverse series (series 3> 4> 5* 14> 15? 4-0, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. NBER Leading Indicators —Continued 37* Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 31. Change in book value, manuf a c tur i ng and trade inventories, total1 20. Change in book value, mf rs . ' inventories of materials and supplies1 (Ann. rate, bil. del.) Year and month (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) -4.3 -2.2 -7.2 +1.0 +0.8 -0.8 +2.0 +3.1 +4.0 +1.9 +7.0 +6.2 -1.6 -1.9 -2.0 -1.5 -1.3 -1.6 +0.8 +2.9 +2.2 +0.3 +1.3 GD+6.6 ©35 39 42 46 43 46 54 57 56 52 55 +6.0 +5.7 +6.0 +2.6 +7.1 +5.6 +3.9 +2.0 +5.6 +5.5 +1.2 +5.1 +1.9 +3.0 +2.7 +0.8 +1.0 +0.2 -2*4 -0,3 +1.8 -0.2 +0.5 -1.7 +2.4 +1.9 +2.3 +4.0 +2.1 +4.4 +5.3 +0.9 +4.0 +7.6 ©+9.1 +6.1 +0.6 +0.4 -0.2 +0.9 -0 3 +0.7 -0.5 +1.7 -0.4 +1.7 -0.2 -0.7 26. Production matls . , percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer* 1 (Percent reporting) (Percent reporting) 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries* 2 (Percent reporting) 25. Change in 23. Industrial unfilled or- materials ders, durable prices* a goods industries3 (Bil. dol.) (1957-59=100) 1961 torch April May July October Nov^mbeT --,...-. 41 50 57 54 56 56 55 57 59 59 54 38 40 • 40 47 48 48 49 52 55 55 51 53 -0.39 -0.07 -0.42 +0,36 +0.07 +0.11 +0.37 +0.42 +0.01 +0.25 +0.41 +0.65 58 57 57 55 53 48 45 46 44 45 49 48 57 13 61 56 55 49 52 58 52 52 55 52 51 56 56 55 48 46 42 44 U 48 48 48 48 +0.63 +0.62 -0.67 -0.34 -0.46 -0.37 -0.25 -0.60 -0.36 +0.21 -0.40 +0.91 102.9 100.6 100.4 98.3 97.8 95.4 94.2 94.5 94,0 94.9 96.4 95.8 46 48 47 50 55 57 56 50 49 46 42 42 50 55 54 53 52 57 54 55 56 53 54 55 50 52 54 60 58 54 42 48 52 48 48 46 +0.96 +0*68 +0.94 +0.85 +0.33 -0.58 -0.54 -0.05 +0.38 +0.10 -0.09 -0.40 95.5 95.1 94.4 94.5 95.2 93.9 94.2 94.2 94.1 96.3 97.3 97.7 55 54 60 60 063 55 59 +.0 04 +0.57 +0.16 +1.04 r+0.38 r+0.56 ®pH.15 98.5 98.5 98.9 102.4 100.9 101.4 102.5 4 105.5 51 49 97.3 99.3 103.1 104.1 ©104.4 101.0 101.7 102.9 102.9 102.3 98.9 101.0 1962 torch April May julY September* * * * * * October. * November 1963 February March April Hfev JUly August. . . . . .... September ,..,,, October PeeembeTr . T » , T , 1964 January •**...., March April May.... r+4.8 -0.7 +3.0 +7.5 r+1.6 JUTK* t t - . t r r r . t r JH-1.5 July (NA) -1.9 40 50 54 55 il 56 058 -0.5 0.0 -1.0 r-0.1 pO.O (NA) 53 54 56 59 ; 58 59 58 September November «».».*. 2 *,© = December 1960. ( = March 1 6 . D 90 4 Average for August 17, 18, and 19. 1 CD s January 1960. 26 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted gxeept those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted serico are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by QD; the reverse io *. true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45) < Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect aeries relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Th© "r" indicated revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators 41- Employees in nonagricultural establishments 42. Total 43. Unemnonagricul- ployment tural emrate, total1 ployment, labor force survey1 2 40. Unemployment rate, married males1 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs3 (Thous . ) Year and month (Thous . ) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 61,034 60,897 61,229 61,154 61,134 61,622 61,259 61,274 61,299 61,463 61,896 61,747 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0 '©7.1 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.0 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9 ©5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.2 4.2 3.9 6.2 6.3 ©6.3 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 4.8 88 ©88 90 89 91 93 94 98 98 107 110 110 ©103.3 103.4 103.8 106.6 108.8 110.9 112.0 113.4 112.0 113.5 114.8 115.6 61,899 62,179 62,253 62,247 62,663 62,752 62,620 63,021 63,039 63,007 62,870 63,240 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.8 5.5 3.8 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 114 115 115 112 114 109 110 108 107 107 107 e0 !7 114.6 116.3 117.3 117.8 118.3 118.4 119.4 119.4 119.8 119.2 119.5 119.1 63,090 63,227 63,478 63,770 63,690 63,843 64,092 64,069 64,167 64,128 64,319 64,315 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.9 5.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.4 3.3 4.8 4.6 4>4 4*2 4,2 4.1 4-X 44 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3 e0 !7 e0 !9 e0 !8 109 105 104 109 105 107 111 112 118 119.7 120.6 121.8 122.7 124.5 125.5 125.7 125.1 125.4 125.9 126.1 126.8 64,631 65,035 65,207 65,811 0589 6,8 65,549 65,706 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.3 ©4.9 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 J02.6 2.8 2.7 4-3 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 133.6 *3.7 116 117 rl!8 120 118 121 [Hjpl24 127.7 128.2 129.0 r!30.5 r!31.3 rl31.7 EJP132.7 46. Helpwanted advertising in newspapers (1957-59=100 47. Industrial production 50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (1957-59= 100) (Ann. rate, bil. del.) 1961 53,725 ©53,541 March 53,615 April 53,713 May 53,911 June 54,165 July 54,294 54,444 54,480 September *****4 October 54,593 54,825 IV»cenibi*r. . , - 1 . . 54,927 1962 54,946 February 55,223 March 55,368 April 55,703 May...., 55,822 June . . * * , 55,908 July 56,010 August. . . . . .... 56,019 56,125 October • ,. 56,195 November * 56,205 56,211 December 1963 56,333 56,458 February 56,706 March April 56,873 tev 57,060 June 57,194 July 57,340 August 57,344 57,453 57,646 57,580 November... 57,748 1964 January 57,850 February, . . ... . 58,183 tfarch 58,327 April.......... 58,502 Jfay..... r 58, 590 r 58, 7 50 July [Hjp58,888 August «. September . . . ... October ©434 .V 444*4 450.6 462 .*5 469 'l 475 il 478 ! 3 483*. 6 485 \l 487 !<? 494^8 502*6 508*6 [S]r513*5 December. » • * * * • Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962, the 21950 Census is used as the benchmark. CD » December 1960. exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. Week ended August 1. Basic Data 27 Toblc 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) * . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (D and current highs, by [H] ; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 ) 5. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r11 indicates n revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a , anticipated; and "NA", not available. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators —Continued 57. Final 49. Gross sales (series national 49 minus 21) product in current dollars Year and month (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 52. Personal 51. Bank ' debits outside income1 NYC, 343 centers1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 53. Labor in- 54. Sales of 55. Wholesale come in mining, retail stores prices except manufacturing, farm products and foods and construction 1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (1957-59=100) 1961 ©501 ! 4 513 ,*9 r531.4 r538.7 553.4 54?! 3 r554.0 566! 6 561 [2 5?i!s 568 1 2 577 ,'4 r573.7 587 \2 583^6 599^6 592! 6 608 ".8 r606.4 ®r6l8.6 QD r 614. 9 ,. . . August, October ftovemhp»r * - . * T . T December 1962 February torch April May 536^9 559 .'6 July 518!? 545 .'5 toy 511 .*8 522^4 torch April 505 '.3 * JUly October November December 1 1- . . . - T 1963 January February March April toy July SeptftllJbpr * r r - r * October November ....... December 1964 March April May July AmnWt. t T i, ..... October Novenih**r * T ..... *<D » December 1960. Week ended August 18. 2 1,786.2 1,755.0 1,785.1 1,781.8 1,829.3 1,824,0 1,839.9 1,832.7 1,848.2 1,904.6 1,903.8 1,916.9 405.0 406.2 410.3 411.6 4L3.6 416.1 420.0 420.0 421.8 425.4 429.0 431.5 104.2 104.0 104,5 105.4 106.4 107.7 108.0 108.8 108.8 110.6 Hi. 7 112.1 17,942 17,965 17,971 ©17,811 18,003 18,098 18,234 18,373 18,371 18,494 18,775 18,879 101.0 101.1 101.1 100.9 100.9 100.7 100.7 100.8 100.8 100.7 100.8 100.9 2,009.7 1,916.6 1,985.3 2,044.4 2,015.0 2,000.2 2,054.8 2,017.0 1,988.5 2,080.9 2,090,5 2,066.9 431.6 434.9 437.6 440.2 441.0 441.7 443.3 444.1 446.2 447.7 449.5 452.0 112.0 113.0 114.2 115.9 115.4 115.4 116.3 116.1 117.1 116.8 116.6 117.0 18,990 19,139 19,320 19,389 19,585 19,311 19,658 19,671 19,844 19,837 20,112 20,253 100.8 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.9 100.8 100.9 100.8 100.9 100.9 100.8 100.7 2,148.0 2,085.5 2,095.6 2,198.1 2,150.7 2,105.4 2,276.8 2,189.7 2,275.0 2,316.3 2,246.9 2,320.5 454.9 454.1 456.5 457.6 460.2 462.7 464.0 466.1 468.9 472.7 473.8 477.1 117.4 117.4 118.3 118.8 120.1 120.8 120.7 120.7 122.1 122.5 122.2 123.1 20,387 20,374 20,350 20,276 20,200 20,486 20,719 20,666 20,426 20,716 20,558 21,019 100.5 100.5 100.5 ©100.4 100.fi 100.8 100.9 100.9 100 . 8 100.9 100.9 101.0 2,355.1 2,239.9 2,322.5 02,451-3 2,313.0 r2,328.8 p2,430.9 479.4 480.5 482.9 486.6 487.8 r489.3 (H1P490.8 122.7 124-2 124.6 125.9 125.8 r!26.4 0P126.7 21,000 21,533 21,223 21,392 r21,777 r21,675 [S)p21,928 101.1 101.1 101.0 101.1 101.1 rlOl.O GDplOl.2 2 101.2 28 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continiwd Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (ip and current highs, by QD ; the reverse is *. true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicater> revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. NBER Lagging Indicators 6l. Business expenditures , new plant and equipment , total 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 68. Labor cost 64> Book value 65, Book value 66. Consumer per dollar of of mfrs. ! in- of- nvf rs . ' in- installment ventories of debt real corporate ventories GNP finished goods (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Year and month (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) Revised1 1961 33!a5 March April Ito June July ©33.50 September , October Notfftnib^r » . , . . » » Peceiribfii% - * - * » •> 34! 70 35^40 101.8 102.4 102.2 100.5 100.2 99.5 99.1 98.5 99.0 98.9 99.0 ©98.4 104.9 103.4 103^8 ©102.3 (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 53.7 53.7 53.5 53.4 53.4 ©53.4 53.6 53.9 53.9 54.3 54.7 •55.1 18.4 18,4 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.4 ©18.3 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 42,109 42,035 42,041 ©41,367 41,870 41,895 41,903 41,987 42,052 42,221 42,442 42,774 55.4 55.7 56.0 56.1 56.4 56.3 56.9 57.0 57.3 57 t 4 57.6 57.8 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.8 42,960 43,220 43,532 44,017 44,437 44,826 45,200 45,588 45,838 46,206 46,689 47,174 57.$ 58.0 58.1 58.3 58.5 58.7 58.9 58.9 59.1 59.3 59.8 60.1 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.6 20.6 21.0 21.2 47,659 48,154 48,631 49,152 49,593 50,079 50,588 51,069 51, UO 51,941 52,324 52,784 60.0 60.1 60.3 60.5 ®r60.5 p60.4 (NA) 21.2 21.4 21.4 21.6 (Hjr21.6 p21.4 (NA) 53,212 53,791 54,315 54,727 55,220 055,590 (NA) 67. Bank rates on short-term busineco loans, 19 eities* (Percent) 4! 97 4.' 97 4. *99 ©4.'% 1962 January * 35 '.70 Maroh April May 36 .'<?5 July 38 '.35 September October. ....... 37^95 99.4 99.0 98.8 99.8 99.8 0100.4 100.1 100.2 99.6 100.1 99.5 100.1 102 ,*9 103 .*4 103.* 5 103 -*2 4^ 5ioi 4^99 (HJ5!62 1963 Februai*y« . . . * . * March April May juLv* . . t ... . August September. . . ,., Peceirib^'iN ...... 36^95 38 '.05 4o!66 a. '26 99.7 99.6 99.0 99.1 98.8 98.4 98.8 99.5 99.4 99.0 99.1 98.7 104.2 104.8 104.7 104.6 5166 s.'oi s!6i 5^66 1964 February March April.* \ , .... May June * * T T r ...... JUly Auffuat * . . . * . . . . September . . » * * • October *.. EJ42!55 a43.*35 97.9 97.8 98.3 97.5 r97.5 r9S.O P98.0 104^2 0104.9 au!30 a45*.40 Pacftnfber* . . i t * . 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,1* page ii. 4^99 4^99 29 Basic Data Toble 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 196) TO PRE$ENT~Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by (H"| * the reverse is *. true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14) 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; np", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Other U.S. series with business cycle significance 82. Federal 83- Federal 84. Federal cash surplus cash payments cash receipts from (+), or to public public deficit (-) Year and month (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 95. Surplus ( ) or +, deficit ( ) -, Fed. income and product account (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement 91. Defense Department obligations, total 92. Military 99. New orders, prime contract awards defense to U.S. bus- products iness firms (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 1961 January* . . . . ... February • March April ffey June July AugUft, ..,,»,., September October* . . . . ... Nnvpiribef*- » t - T . T December* t . - » . . 95.5 95.4 107.4 100.6 110.9 106,5 97.7 112.7 104.1 109.8 106.5 104.3 94.2 94.1 92.6 97.0 99.8 97.7 91.2 101.0 99.2 99.5 101.3 101.7 -1.3 -1.3 -14.8 -3.6 -11.1 -8.8 -6.5 -11.7 -4.9 -10.3 -5.2 -2.6 115.1 108.8 107.4 110.1 106.8 108.9 116.3 111.6 109.9 118.6 114.7 115.2 101.7 101.3 98.1 107.8 109.9 144 0. 111,2 110.1 176 0. 107.8 109.0 109.0 -13.4 -7.5 -9.3 -2.3 +3.1 -4.5 -5.1 -1.5 -2.3 -10.8 -5.7 -6.2 115.3 109.2 114.5 117.2 115.8 110.2 124.7 118.1 121.9 122.3 114.2 122.7 108.6 110.6 108.9 110.2 112.2 111.9 114.9 114.7 113.1 115.1 113.3 118.5 -6.7 +1.4 -5.6 -7.0 -3.6 +1.7 -9.8 -3.4 -8.8 -7.2 -0.9 -4.2 128.6 117.2 120.3 123.2 110.3 120.0 126.9 114.8 123.4 115.3 126.6 105.1 114-4 116.4 -13.8 +6.2 -5.0 +3.4 -5.2 -5.6 -10.5 -.6 6' -.? 4' -3 .4 ' -2 .*6 1,277 1,555 1,230 1,047 1,220 1,390 1,181 2,278 1,933 1,354 1,286 1,773 3,641 4,065 3,537 3,381 3,727 3,893 3,784 5,344 484 ,7 4,296 4,121 4,653 1,944 2,153 1,757 1,910 1,530 1,993 2,087 2,232 2,158 2,651 2,379 2,281 1.45 2.00 1.48 1.85 1.82 1.73 2.11 1,96 1.92 1.97 1.86 1,82 1,718 1,319 1,435 1,885 1,142 1,246 1,731 1,240 1,044 1,684 1,818 1,158 444 ,3 4,181 4,230 446 ,8 4,059 4,024 4,864 4,300 3,928 4,553 4,952 3,974 3,073 2,135 2,225 2,062 1,887 1,930 2,017 2,149 2,111 2,983 2,734 1,984 1.99 2,05 2.11 2.24 2.24 2.08 2.07 1.94 1,88 2.09 1.70 2.53 1,565 1,325 1,258 1,304 1,530 ; 1,298 1,255 1,512; 1,221 2,038; 1,125 1,182 4,642 4,253 3,905 4,108 4,601 4,378 4,834 447 ,9 4,215 5,176 4,138 4,090 2,343 2,571 2,168 1,973 2,250 2,125 2,506 2,704 2,688 2,224 1,566 2,041 2.89 2.09 2.42 1.97 2.40 1.90 2.40 2.36 2.47 1.92 1.97 1.48 1,071 2,067 1,030 1,516 2,192 (NA) 4,370 5,484 3,731 4,592 491 ,4 (NA) 2,337 2,854 1,603 2,529 2,465 (HA) 2.67 2.40 2.18 2.37 r2.48 r2.13 P3.07 ; 1962 February torch April . May July October November -4. t* -4.6 - .9 2 ' -4 ,5 ' 1963 January. . » March...., April Ifey. . . . . .... June July Altfniftt . . . . . .... September ,,..., October -.8 4' i*. •* * -1.0 -6!? 1-0.6 1964 February. . . . ... March....*.. April May June .T . . . . . .... July August. S^ptemb^r . . . ... October*.*.. . -2.4 -9.2 30 Basic Data Tablt 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are Indicated by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [M] ; the reverse is *. true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 ) 5 . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued 85. Change in total U.S. money supply 93. Free reserves* Year and month 98. Change in money supply and time deposits (Mil. dol.) ( Percent ) (Percent) +696 +517 +486 +551 +453 +549 +530 +537 +547 +442 +517 +419 +0.07 +0.28 +0.28 +0.21 +0.28 +0.21 0.00 +0.21 +0.42 +0.28 +0.55 +0.28 +0.37 +0.79 +0.46 +0.46 +0.64 +0.55 +0.45 +0.50 +0.58 +0.53 +0.71 +0.44 +555 +434 +382 +441 +440 +391 +440 +439 +375 +419 +473 +268 0.00 +0.14 +0.21 +0.27 -0.20 +0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.14 +0.34 +0.48 +0.41 +0.57 +0.91 +0.91 +0.64 +0.13 +0.51 +0.38 +0.34 +0.38 +0.71 +0.87 +0.95 +375 +301 +269 +313 +247 +138 +161 +133 +91 +94 +33 +209 +0.27 +0.27 +0.34 +0.20 +0.27 +0.40 +0.53 +0.13 +0.26 +0.46 +0.79 -0.20 +0.69 +0.69 +0.76 +0.48 +0.48 +0.63 +0.71 +0.66 +0.54 +0.73 +1.15 +0.34 r+171 r+91 +98 +162 r+78 +118 p+135 +0.39 0.00 +0.26 +0.32 -0.13 +0.71 p+0.71 +0.83 +0.45 +0.37 +0.44 +0.30 +0.81 F+0.73 UO. Total private borrowing 111. Corporate gross savings (Annual rate, million dollars) (Annual rate, (Annual rate, million dollars] billion dollars) 112. Change, business loans 1961 fferch April May June July AUffU£»t October* • * * * . . . 1962 January February March April May july. . , Septemt er . * * . . . October November 19^3 January March April Jfey June * . » • » « » . » . . July ^September ...... November 29,352 26,580 33,864 32,072 41,844 32,308 42,632 37,304 44,848 36,224 51,340 36,668 46,344 35,108 51,416* 38,628 46,188 37,376 54,824 39,700 55,208 41,920 61,556 42,328 56,352 40,920 •(itt) (NA) +0.54 -0.77 +0.92 -0.37 -0.31 -1.50 +2.18 +1.00 +0.56 +0.01 -0.01 +1.72 +2.90 +1.51 +2.23 +2.09 +2.09 +2.77 +2.66 +3.85 +2.82 +2.82 +2.28 +0.95 +2.26 +1.01 +1.01 +1.57 +3.X8 +1.74 +1.97 +2.03 +2.94 +4.67 +6.10 +5.34 1964 March*. . * April May June t r , * . . , * t . . July ,. . , October November December. . . . . . +2.26 +3.05 +0.05 +1.81 r*5.6Q r+3.88 +3.84 Basic Data 31 Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by f>Tl ; the reverse is *. true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 ) 5 . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA1, not available. Other U.S. series with business cycle significance— Continued Year and month 113. Change, consumer installment debt 114. Treasury bill rate* 115. Treasury bond yields* 116. Corporate bond yields* 117. Municipal bond yields* 118. Mortgage yields* j (Annual rate, billion dollars) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 1961 January jferch April (fey June July August September October. ......* 1962 January March April July August October November 1963 January February March AprH May JUly AUFUflt i t . . . . . . . October November* **.... 1964 January February March April Jfey June . * * T . , * . . * , July Aufruet . ........ September t * . . * » October -0.36 -0.89 +0.07 -2.09 +0.04 +0.30 +0.10 +1.01 +0.78 +2.03 +2.65 +3.98 2 ,,30 2.41 2.42 2.33 2.29 2.36 2.27 2.40 2.30 2.35 2.46 2.62 3.89 3.81 3.78 3.80 3.73 3.88 3.90 4.00 4.02 3.98 3.98 4.06 4.63 4.43 4.36 4.56 4-61 4.73 4-74 4.75 4.69 4.45 4.48 4.56 3.40 3.31 3.45 3.50 3.43 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.53 3.42 3.41 3.47 6.00 5.89 5.82 5.77 5.74 5.72 5.68 5.68 5.69 5.70 5.70 5.69 +2.23 +3.12 +3.74 +5.82 +5.04 +4.67 +4.49 +4.66 +3.00 +4.42 +5.80 +5.82 2.75 2.75 2.72 2.74 2.69 2.72 2.94 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.80 2.86 4.08 4.09 4.01 3.89 3.88 3.90 4.02 3.98 3.94 3.89 3.87 3.87 4.55 4-54 4.42 4-31 4.26 4.30 4.41 4.39 4.28 4.27 4.23 4.28 3.34 3.21 3.14 3.06 3.11 3.26 3.28 3.23 3.11 3.02 3.04 3.07 5.69 5.68 5.65 5.64 5.60 5.59 5.58 5.57 5.56 5.55 5.54 5.53 +5.82 +5.94 +5.72 +6.25 +5.29 +5.83 +6.11 +5-77 +4.09 +6.37 +4.60 +5-52 2.91 2.92 2.90 2.91 2.92 3.00 3.H 3.32 3.38 3.45 3.52 3.52 3.89 3.92 3.93 3.97 3.97 4.00 4.01 3.99 4.04 4.07 4,11 4.H 4.22 4.25 4.26 4.35 4-35 4.32 4.34 4.33 4.40 4.36 4.42 4.49 3.10 3.15 3.05 3;10 3.11 3.21 3.22 3.13 3.20 3.20 3.30 3.27 5.52 5,48 5.47 5.46 5.45 5.45 5.45 5-45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 +5.14 +6.95 +6.29 +4.94 +5.92 +4.44 (NA) 3.53 3.53 3.55 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 4.15 4.H 4.18 4.20 4-16 4.13 4.13 4.49 4.38 4.45 4.49 4-48 4.49 4.43 3.22 3.14 3.28 3.28 3.20 3.20 3.18 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.46 December. ...... 32 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Seriec are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted sorter are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by BO; the reverse is *. true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification fl orUy and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The !lr indicates (l !l revised; p", preliminary; "e , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued Year and month 89. Excess, 81. Consumer receipts (+) prices or payments (-) in U.S. balance of payments (1957-59= 100) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 86. Exports 87. General imports, excluding military aid total shipments, • total (Mil. dol.) 94. Construction contracts, total value 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders , durable goods industries 97. Backlog of capital appropriations , manufacturing (1957-59= 100) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 103.9 104.0 104.0 103.9 103.9 104.1 104.4 104.4 104.5 104.5 104.5 104.5 108 95 104 103 102 111 110 116 103 114 116 119 43.01 42.94 42.52 42.88 42.95 43.06 43.43 43.85 43.86 44.11 44.52 45.17 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.3 105.4 105.4 105.3 105.5 105.9 105.8 105.8 105.9 115 119 131 121 117 120 117 118 113 117 123 138 45.80 46,42 45.75 45.41 44.95 44.58 44.33 43.73 43.37 43.58 43.18 44.09 106.1 106.1 106.2 106.3 106.4 106,7 106,9 107.1 106.9 107.0 107.2 107.7 121 130 118 125 144 135 126 132 128 146 144 148 45.06 45.74 46.68 47.53 47.86 47.28 46.74 46.70 47.07 47.17 4.8 70 46.68 107.8 107.6 107.7 107.9 108.0 108.1 (NA) 147 143 140 138 138 138 (NA) 47*07 4.4 76 47.80 4.4 88 r49.22 r49.78 P50.94 88. Merchandise trade balance (col. 86 minus 8?) 1961 1,622.7 1,711.6 1,750.7 1,661.5 1,585.1 1,581.9 1,688.5 1,688.9 1,678.4 1,779.8 1,733.1 1,724.8 1,161.4 1,149.8 1,162.9 1,152.0 1,152.9 1,173.8 1,379.3 1,253.6 1,262.0 1,300.1 1,308.5 1,314.5 +461.3 +561.8 +587,8 +509.5 +432.2 +408.1 +309.2 +435.3 +416.4 +479.7 +424.6 +410.3 1,668.3 1,809.3 1,672.0 1,795.4 1,761.7 1,835.6 1,748.3 1,702.5 1,907.9 1,542.8 1,724.6 1,838.7 1,326.5 1,319.8 1,341.7 1,365.0 1,404.1 1,350.7 1,346.6 1,345.9 1,471.4 1,312.1 1,424.9 1,376.5 +341.8 +489.5 +330.3 +430.4 +357.6 +484.9 +401.7 +356.6 +436.5 +230.7 +299.7 +462.2 984.8 2,117.5 1,960.4 1,912.7 May 1,892.6 1,784.7 July. 1,823.0 1,894.6 August. « . . * . . . . 1,979.6 fieptffwib^'r 1 1 ...» October * 1,946.4 1946 ,4. November* . . . ... Peceniber 2,049.4 1964 January 2,037.3 February • 2,028.7 March* 2,077.5 April 2,046.0 May 2,052.1 June 2,004.3 July (NA) Auffuetr. ......... September October* November . . . . ... December , 1,091.6 1,497.4 1,486.7 1,417.2 1,420.2 1,420.5 1,457.5 1,508.3 1,450.4 1,458.8 1,471.9 1,480.0 -106.8 +620.1 +473.7 +495.5 +472.4 +364.2 +365.5 +386,3 +529.2 +487.6 +472.7 +569.4 1,421.8 1,445.3 1,522.9 1,542.1 1,548.1 1,505.5 (NA) +615.5 +583.4 +554.6 +503.9 +504.0 +498.8 (NA) February. Marsh April May juiv September October* . . . . ... -486 ^1 -700 -1,231 6.68 6*.55 6 '5 .8 6!53 1962 February March April., May June July October -748* -440 -334 -681 6!82 6 '8 .1 6.87 7. *29 1963 February March 1 r-1,062 r-1,295 r-153 r-134 r-75 p-789 Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States. ?!o6 7^53 8. '62 8' 75 . 8!6 9 (NA) 33 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSIKESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by GT) ; the reverse is *. true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14> 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the, back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. International comparisons of industrial production 47. United States, industrial production Year and month January torch April May July August ,. ». October ». November* T - . T11 121. OECD.1 European countries, industrial production 125. West Germany, industrial production 126. France, 127. Italy, industrial industrial production production 128. Japan, industrial production (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) 103 103 104 107 109 111 112 113 112 114 115 116 104 105 105 107 107 109 109 111 112 112 114 114 109 110 110 111 110 113 113 111 110 109 109 109 117 119 119 120 119 120 120 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 126 124 121 122 121 124 123 124 128 115 116 116 116 117 117 118 118 119 119 119 122 130 134 134 134 136 136 138 137 140 145 149 148 155 154 158 159 162 165 169 172 172 175 176 177 115 116 117 118 118 118 119 119 120 119 120 119 113 115 116 116 117 118 118 119 119 119 120 120 108 110 111 110 113 114 .113 114 115 110 113 110 122 124 123 124 125 124 125 126 127 127 128 127 126 129 125 128 129 130 130 131 132 132 133 132 122 123 124 123 124 123 125 125 126 128 128 126 149 151 149 151 153 147 151 149 150 153 158 160 182 178 181 181 182 180 179 180 181 179 179 178 120 121 122 123 124 126 126 125 125 126 126 127 120 121 122 122 123 123 121 123 125 126 128 131 110 111 113 114 115 115 116 118 117 120 121 121 127 126 127 130 131 132 132 130 133 135 136 3.36 129 128 132 133 133 139 133 135 135 139 141 137 127 125 116 129 133 134 130 130 136 137 136 138 158 r!55 rl6l rl65 rl65 166 rl63 r6 !6 171 r7 !1 173 r7 !0 179 184 184 191 r9 !0 191 203 r202 207 r?.ll 128 128 129 130 131 132 p!33 133 134 133 136 p!32 (NA) r2 !3 123 123 122 p!22 (NA) 138 138 r4 !0 r3 !8 p4 !0 (NA) 141 143 r4 !6 139 149 P143 (NA) 140 139 139 11 4 140 PHI (NA) 172 168 173 169 pl66 (NA) 217 226 223 224 p225 (NA) (1957-59= 100) 1961 123. Canada, 122. United industrial Kingdom, production industrial production (1957-59= 100) 1962 March April May June July September »,,.,. October 1963 January February March April May July August October 1964 January February March April.... Jfcy July Anoryfl-h. . . . . .... October Nov^riber* <• * * » • * ^-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. ;>H r217 Analytical Measures 34 Table ^..DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates — Number of months before benchmark date that high was reached Business cycle peak Nov. 1948 July July 1953 3d month before business cycle peak Aug. 1948 May 1960 1957 Apr. 1953 Feb. 1960 Apr. 1957 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 12 1 7 1 3 1 4 1 22 1 •* • 2 2 X Percent of series high on benchmark date. 18 0 " 3 19 16 2 14 2 1 3 2 1 3 4 11 1 2 2 3 1 1 4 1 "i i x 12 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 4 •* V 23 0 20 23 0 2 19 21 *18 0 23 0 23 4 1 1 NBER BOUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 1 2 1 * ** 1 1 '*2 3 3 11 27 1 3 '*2 3 1 2 1 5 months 4 1 2 Percent of series high on benchmark date. 1 11 9 2 1 "i 4 4 4 2 3 3 3 6 11 36 11 36 11 27 11 55 3 **5 2 3 11 45 11 27 6th month before business cycle peak Number of months before benchmark date that high was- reached May 1948 Jan. 1953 Nov. 1959 Jan. 1957 *i **4 Current expansion Apr, 1964 May 1964 June ' 16 94 July 1964 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 6 1 7 months 5 4 3 2 montha . * * months months: . . . months *...* 4 2 Percent of series high on benchmark date. 2 2 1 1 1B 6 * 2 1 2 1 4 1 2 3 3 2 19 16 17 1 1 1 "l 1 4 4 4 2 4 8 8 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 10 1 2 5 1 *1 3 1 4 15 27 "l 1 2 2 "9 5 5 4. /* 2 23 4 23 9 23 39 23 22 23 9 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 1 5 months 4 months 3 months •• 1 4 2 4 *».*• 1 month . . * * . Percent of series high on benchmark date. 2 1 5 11 45 2 3 6 11 55 "i 5 3 •f• 2 3 11 27 11 27 11 10 91 3 8 11 73 1 4 6 11 55 1 1 " 9 11 82 All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted from the distribution. 1 5 series were not available. 2 2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks wore disregarded in this distribution. 35 Analytical Measures DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT NBER Leading Indicators (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T Percent D1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.--21 Indus. (3-mo. interval) D6. New orders, dur. goods indus.--36 Indus (5-mo. interval) D 11. Newly approved capital appropriations 17 indus, ,NICB 3-Q mterval,*-*-»l-Q interval] D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reportin higher profits-700 cos. (1-Q interval) D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks--82 indus (3-mo. interval) D23. Industrial materials prices—13 indus. mtls (5-mo. interval) D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.--47 areas (inverted. 5-mo. interval) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3,* page 5. 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Analytical Measures DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT-Con. NBER Roughly C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (F.b.) P T Percen D41. Employees in nonogr. esfablishmcnts-30 Indus (1-mo. interval) D47. Industrial productlon-24 indus (1-mo. interval) D58. Wholesale prices, mffd. goods—23 indus. ;1= {5-mo.interval) * D54. Sales of retail stares-24 types of stores (5-mo. interval) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Analytical Measures 37 CHART 3 b DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT (Nov.) P (July) P (Oct.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (Au«.) T (Moy) (Fab.) P_ T D35, Net soles, all mfrs.--800 cos, (percent--4-Q interval) New orders, dur. goods mfrs.-400 cos. (percent—4-Q interval) ^ Carloadings--19 mfrd. commodity groups (percent-4-Q interval) D48. Change in total carloadings (millions of cors-4-Q interval) D61. Now plant and equipment expend.—17-22 Indus. ;':".,. (percent-1-Q interval) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 Data are centered within intervals. Latest data areas follows: Series number and date of survey D35, D36 {July 1964) D48 .(June 1964) D6T (May 1964) See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. Latest interval shown Actual Anticipated 2nd Q 1963 - 2nd Q 1964 3rd Q 1962- 3rd Q'l963 4th Q 1963- 1st Q 1964 4th Q 1963- 4th Q 1964 3 r d Q 1963 - 3rd Q 1964 2nd Q 1964- 3rd Q 1964 1964 38 Analytical Measures Toble 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within'intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span] 4-quartor figures are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed, on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures; are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. 'Seasonally adjusted components are used exeept in indexes 1)19, which requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for moat of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. NBER Leading indexes Bl. Average workweek, manufac tur ing (21 industries) Year and month 1-month interval 1961 January March April May June ,. JU]y September October November * D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable, goods industries (36 industries) 3-month interval 1-month interval 5-month interval 95.2 71.4 54.8 81.0 45.2 90.5 64.3 73.8 38.1 85.7 66.7 23.8 66.7 95.2 71.4 69.0 90.5 78.6 88.1 54.8 97.6 85.7 81.0 26.2 33.3 48.6 66,7 62.5 63.9 66.7 36.1 63.9 47.2 55.6 61.1 58.3 52.8 72.2 72.2 72.2 77.8 83.3 66.7 69.4 62.5 72.2 70.8 80.6 14.3 73.8 73.8 76.2 21.4 28.6 35.7 47.6 81.0 7.1 59.5 59.5 31.4 59.5 88.1 78.6 40.5 21.4 21.4 59.5 35.7 38.1 31.0 73.8 63.9 52.8 36.1 51.4 56.9 37.5 56.9 36.1 48.6 68.1 50.0 47.2 63.9 68.1 66.7 41.7 48.6 37.5 36.1 52.8 52.8 52.8 75.0 77.8 52.4 73.8 40.5 16.7 81.0 47.6 45.2 42.9 66.7 57.1 21.4 83.3 71.4 64.3 31.0 52.4 54.8 78.6 47.6 59.5 64.3 47.6 66.7 7.1 63.9 43.1 54.2 63.9 52.8 47.2 51.4 52.8 52.8 69.4 33.3 62.5 66.7 75.0 73.6 55.6 56.9 50.0 0.0 85.7 28.6 78.6 r35.7 r21.4 P47.6 85.7 50.0 92.9 r40.5 r40.S P38.1 55.6 4. 44 58.3 61.1 r44.4 r52.8 P55.6 Dll, Newly approved c ap i t a 1 approp r ia t io n 8 , NICE (1?" industries) 3 -quart or interval 1-quarter interval 53 59 59 65 68 68 44 63 65 a 29 71 79 §3 59 *76 41 53 59 *53 *59 '8 6 *47 *59 44 (Ml) 1962 March April May June July August September Octob er November 1963 February March April May. . . „ July August September October December* ..*... 1964 January February March April May „ July September Noveratbe** * „ r » » t T a. 7 45.8 62.5 54.2 69.4 77.8 66.7 72.2 r6l.l r55.6 p6l.l (NA) Analytical Measures 39 Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued 'ercent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA, not available. NBER Leading indexes — Continued Year and month 034. Profits, mfg., FNCB (around 700 c orporations ) 1-quarter interval D19. Index of stock prices, 500 "common stocks (80 industries)1 1-month interval 3-month interval D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas) D23. Index of industrial materials prices (13 industrial materials) 1-month interval 5-month interval ; 1-month interval 5 -month interval 1961 47 torch, ......«.* ipril '60 fey fulv. ..* *58 )ctober *56 )ecember 87.0 96.3 86.0 72.6 81.1 40.2 42.1 81.1 39.6 45.7 87.8 56.1 96.3 96.3 95.1 93.9 70.7 57.3 57.9 54.9 55-5 62.2 72.6 52.4 42.3 76.9 84.6 73.1 53.8 46.2 53.8 46. 2. 61.5 38.5 15.4 61,5 61.5 76.9 76.9 76.9 61.5 61.5 46.2 42.3 46.2 53.8 69.2 53.8 59.6 31.9 80.9 40.4 48.9 58.5 51.1 61.7 46.8 78.7 74.5 23.4 57.4 59.6 61.7 66.0 68.1 66.0 61.7 93.6 93.6 68.1 63.8 91.5 26.2 74.4 48.2 9.1 1.2 1.2 67.7 78.0 34.8 6.7 98.8 84.8 39.6 37.8 32.9 0.0 1.2 1.2 8.5 67.1 31.1 72.6 90.2 98.8 76.9 38.5 38.5 15.4 42.3 26,9 23.1 34.6 61.5 53.8 84.6 66.7 46.2 61.5 23.1 23.1 23.1 15.4 30.8 23.1 53.8 66.7 75.0 69.2 57.4 83.0 46.8 46.8 40.4 14.9 68,1 57.4 44.7 46.8 72.3 27.7 74.5 51.1 66.0 31.9 21.3 34.0 31.9 38.3 78.7 48.9 22.3 63.8 97.6 79.3 43.8 91.2 85.0 51.9 29.4 75.0 76.9 44.9 44.9 68.4 97.6 93.8 91,2 90.0 88.0 62.5 54-4 60.2 74-4 56.4 50.6 68.4 58.3 58.3 50.0 38.5 50.0 61.5 53.8 53.8 53.8 76.9 69.2 53.8 61.$ 61.5 58.3 58,3 46.2 42.3 46.2 53.8 73.1 76.9 76.9 84.6 23.4 85.1 31.9 44.7 48.9 70.2 42.6 48.9 44.7 61.7 31.9 34.0 69.1 48.9 48.9 85.1 54.3 63.8 68.1 70.2 40.4 31.9 68.1 48.9 74.7 64.7 78.2 75.6 52.6 35.3 89.7 73.7 81.0 82.1 77.9 57.7 70.5 61.5 57.7 38.5 61.5 38.5 50.0 65.4 2 61.5 69.2 61.5 53.8 53.8 61.5 '61.5 85.1 12.8 66.0 75.5 51.1 51.1 59.6 1962 54 r ebruary '4? ipril ufav fuly *48 Dctober '56 }ecember. T T - ' - - 1963 50 tei-ch ftprtl *59 fey *56 Tulv August October. . . ; . . . . *55 1964 January. . » » . . . » 57 fferch April 60 fay July 51.1 83.0 78.7 55.3 70.2 [September December lr The diffusion index is based on 82 components, January 1961 to February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; on 79 components, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter. 18 components and 5 composites, representing an additional 23 components, are shown in the direction-of-rchange table (table 6 . ) 2 Average for August 17, 18, and 19. Analytical Measures 40 Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continoed Fereent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals; 1-month figures are placed on latent month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quasrter flgurei are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figure: are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in Indexes 1)19, whUO requires no adjustment, and D34j which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most G: the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "MA", not available. NBER Roughly Coincident indexes Year and month D41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (30 industries) D47. Index of industrial production (24 industries) D54. Sales of retail stores (24 types of stores) D58. Index of whole sale prices (23 manufacturing industries) 5 -month interval 1-month interval 3-month interval 1-month interval 3-month interval 1-month interval 5-month interval 1-month interval 45.0 33.3 61.7 56.7 36.7 88.3 70,0 70.0 56.7 71.7 81.7 63.3 15.0 40.0 43.3 78.3 85.0 90.0 90.0 66.7 80.0 80.0 78,3 76.7 45.8 52.1 66.7 83.3 77.1 91.7 79^2 83.3 45.8 72.9 83.3 56.3 37,5 62.5 81,3 83.3 87.5 83.3 100.0 79.2 79.2 75.0 87.5 41.7 58.3 41.7 60.4 22.9 79.2 77.1 60.4 68.8 39.6 83.3 87.5 60.4 43.8 43.8 64.6 62.5 64.6 56.3 83.3 87.5 95.8 81.3 83.3 83.3 39.1 47.8 41.3 65.2 45.7 37.0 50.0 56.5 60.9 39.1 47.8 56.5 43.5 34,8 39.1 43.5 5^.2 41.3 41.5 47.8 54.3 45.7 50.0 60.9 55.0 80.0 71.7 86.7 71.7 55.0 56.7 46.7 36.7 45.0 33.3 43.3 78.3 88.3 88.3 80.0 73.3 65.0 51.7 38.3 35.0 26.7 28.3 43.3 29.2 83.3 83.3 75.0 83.3 62.5 54.2 58.3 79.2 29.2 54.2 41.7 50.0 66.7 91.7 83.3 70.8 79.2 68.8 79.2 41.7 62.5 45.8 68.8 58.3 50.0 70.8 68.8 58.3 18.8 83.3 75.0 64.6 39.6 87.5 66.7 05.4 93.8 89.6 70.8 81.3 79.2 70.8 54.2 95.8 95.8 81.3 79.2 69.6 43,5 58.7 45.7 43.5 39.1 41.3 54.3 34.8 45.7 39.1 §4.3 63.0 63.0 58.7 52.2 47.8 43.5 30.4 41.3 34.8 23.9 30,4 63.3 48.3 83.3 66.7 85.0 61.7 75.0 48.3 45.0 65.0 53.3 65.0 71.7 83.3 78.3 75.0 60.0 50.0 48.3 40.0 63.3 48.3 66.7 72.9 79.2 54-2 79.2 66.7 70.8 70.8 56.3 60.4 58.3 72.9 70.8 87.5 87.5 91.7 83.3 87.5 85.4 79.2 77.1 75.0 79.2 66.7 50.0 54.2 52.1 41.7 52.1 75.0 66.7 64.6 25.0 58.3 54.2 77.1 81.3 56.3 45.8 58.3 62.5 75.0 66.7 70.8 54.2 68.8 58.3 87.5 39.1 43.5 37.0 41.3 58.7 63.0 47.8 58.7 58.7 76.1 69.6 60.9 34.8 28,3 45.7 50.0 52.2 52.2 69.6 73.9 .71.7 69.6 73.9 71.7 73.3 75.0 85.0 rSO.O rSO.O P78.3 66.7 79.2 70.8 83.3 70.8 r60.4 P77.1 83.3 83.3 91.7 r87.5 r83.3 p87.5 43.8 70.8 52.1 52.1 r66.7 r68.8 P50.0 81.2 79.2 r3l.2 r91.7 P70.8 58.7 63.0 45.7 63.0 43.5 r45.7 p65.2 67.4 69.6 54.3 r56.5 P50.0 1961 Iferch April May July August* * 1962 February March April Mfeiv July AlUmSt,. - - - - » r t t Spp'tember ..».,, November 1963 January March April Meur July August September. , , , , t October December 1964 February, ..*... March April „ May June July September *..**. a. 7 70.0 43.3 83.3 76.7 63.3 60.0 r68.3 P73.3 52. a Analytical Measures 41 Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES; JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT ercent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. lfr" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Year and month D35. Net sales, manufactures ( 0 companies) 80 4-quarter interval Actual D36. New orders, durable manufactures ( 0 companies) 40 4-quarter interval Anticipated Anticipated Actual D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured commodity groups) 4-quarter interval Actual D6l. New plant and equipment expenditures (16 industries) 1-quarter interval Antici- Change in pated total ( 0 ) 00 Actual Anticipated 1961 28.1 *88 *82 *86 r73 ,*7 89^5 *86 *78 *82 63 '2 . 89.5 *88 *76 *84 57^9 9.? 4" -67 *76 80 *74 '4 ? 63^2 89.*5 -96 *72 '4 ? *71 70 42 !l 68^4 -66 *74 *82 '6 ? *76 63 .*2 63 '2 . +28 *76 *80 *77 '6 7 73*7 78^9 +38 *74 *80 *76 *76 (NA) 68^4 +A4 *82 *84 *82 *80 78.9 +39 '8*4 *85 82 % 84 73^7 -35 *87 *84 68 "4 . p-27 *86 50,0 +62 *80 75.0 +125 81 71 i9 71.9 *82 7.6 5' 71.9 +79 50.0 75i6 73.7 68 .*8 65 ".6 66^4 65 '6 . 40.6 *78 68.*8 46 .*9 *73 62.5 -28 *83 65^6 6 '6 5 . 89 '5 . 62^5 68 ".8 36 is 53!l 65.6 '8 ? 46^9 59^4 *72 *74 March April May *82 37.5 56^2 *72 *84 July.. . . * . September* * - - •> * 1962 torch MOV July December - 1963 March April. . . . . Nbv July October 1964 5.6 0' April May July.. .... ... November 68 is Analytical Measures 42 Q eg- inp Aojfl— ttnp 0) f*a> ^. OQ—A*1&^ •H des-^dv S^ny—ji^ to Ttir-q^J unp-uTip a J&Bw-oea 1 ta ^+ + + + + 1 ( 1 + + + + 1 1 + ++++ 1 + 1 1 1 1+ 4 1 1 1 4 1 14414 ^0+ + 1 + ' l + l + + + + l l + + l + t 1 + 1 1 + + 1 + + + + +I I + + ++ qaj-dog a. o UtJp— StXTf o9Q~ T^f Q) !+'+ + + Q>+ + + + + I++ + + + + +I + ' 1 ' + + + ^ l + + + + l < + 4 i O + t + l l + t + + + I + I + 1 + 1 + I O + I + + I 4 - I I I 1 + 4 1 1 1 + I + + + 1 1 ) l 1 I++ + 0) 4 l l + + 4 l l + AO^-unp >- *OO-^BW S1 Z) H 6 MJI ) + + ) deg-ady ojl I Snv-^ -i d •s-\ JCU^— ^OQ i LU vD jdY—AO^J 5 § e LU CO 0) ftfl 0 1 1 1 4 1 I I ! t i l + + + i i + ( + | | + + 4 + 1 4 1 1 1 + 4 + 1 + 1 + + | | | | I + + |; S 4 + 1 + 1 ts + 4 4 + 4 4 + 1 1 1 i + + + + t + i ) i | + + + + ) ! ( o o 09CI-AON AQN-q-oo ^oo-das o d9S-§nv H- g LU CL O SW-I^P o CO « inp-unp unp-^'G^j ^"G^I— jdy Jdv-a^w a^j-qsj[ -p O a. 1 qaj-UBf UBP-09Q 09Q-AON \O+ + 1 1 1 ^ l l l + l ^ l + ^+ + + +I 1 1 1 + 1 + I I I l + l + + 1 I + I I + I + + + + I + | + i i i i + + + | + i + i i i + | + + | 0 + 1 + 4- 1 0 + 1 + 1 I I + + ++I + + + + + + ( + + 1 1 1 + 1 1 U- fp\l I I + + I I I + | | + ( l + | | ( + + | | + + l + ^+ 4- + + + + + + 1+ + + + I I + O + I O+ + + + + + d^s-Sny 3nv-irip [^+ + + + + 1 1 4 - 4 . ( + + l + l + + l + ^np-unp (J Jfr i + i j - i t + + + | + + + + + ) + Q «' C'j 1S | + ( + | 'j ^OQ-d9g X + + I + I SI AON-%OO 1 l + + o + © + l + i + i + i + i + l H+ | | + | i | | ( + ( + + ) ) ( + + ) | + + | + + j + + | + + + + | | o + + I + + I I | + ) + + ( | ( + l ( | t 1+ + + 1 l + 1 1 ) 1 4 , ( + + d ,£ 8* P^ y o *• 1 1 1 ) + 1 1 CO •^ a 'C T o o f-H 36 industry components 1 Q) >r CO t «i •P H 'OHOrHtatDO) ! -••^»a)** |",'cJa} * ' C * ^ * '(d* £ S) E li <r °l M1^ •H M It ' IN ;>cmc;> t,uwrufNcrN i i A«L> rcKLCJN I ur iCKlt> KI5JNL>: JULY 1963 I U PKtbtN T-Continoed Tobfe O.-UIKCL. i IUN ur (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks 3-month spans 1-month spans 1964 1963 1963 1964 23 industry components1 •-3 1 <J 1 CO O 1 1 S£ |cd (Ujsiciiji^ ^ ^ ( u o o o - j E i - ( S < i J S l ~ 3 | ~ 5 < t ; W O 2 Q 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 Q 1 1 •~J 3 J (U cj ^ ^ <; to o O a Q i - 3 f c S < ; S » - j | 1 s < c o o E : 2 »-3 1 0 CQ O QJ y •< 1 1 1 o i) 1 1 2 Q 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 11! ! 11 I i I§ 29 75 77 45 45 68 75 65 78 76 53 35 90 62 54 60 74 56 51 68 74 81 82 78 58 70 + 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - , 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 1 - 4 - 4 - + + + Food composite + -+- o + - + + • * • - _ _ _ _ _ + 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- 4- 4_ 4- 4- - 4- - _ _ _ - + 4- 4- - Publishing - Steel Metctl fabricating H - + -H *- -t- - - + + + 4- 4- - + • * • - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - • •• Office and business equipment Electric household appliances + 4- - 4- + - - + + - - 44- - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - * + + 4 - 4 - + 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- + + 4- - + - 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- _ + !!:;+* 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- + 4-4- t- - - + + + 4- - i + + 4- 4- 4- Automobiles Telephone companies o -*• + --. o - 44- 44- + o + + 4- 4- _ 4-4- t- 4- 4- 4- + = rising; o = unchanged; - - falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted. ^•The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 42 Based on 80 industries to August 1963; on 79 industries, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter. O Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued (D?3) Jndcx of industrial Materials Prices 5-month spans 1-month spans 1963 a. 1^ ^ 31 O I 1 111 IS 0 & 8 c J> s II § i I Jt. 9 > ' < r-t 1 c 1 i—i rf 54 54 54 77 69 54 62 58 38 62 38 50 65 62 All industrial materials 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- _ 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4 - 4 - 4- 4- 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - Copper scrap (ib. ) Steel scrap (ton) Tin (Ib. ) 7i «/» f1X ^ 4- Burlap (yd ) 44- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- tnn<; flH 1 Hides (Ib ) Rosin (100 Ib.) Rubber (ib. ) Tallow (Ib. ) § M ? i i 0 -P 0 > 0 0 CJ c"jQ S-i 1* b n C ( H & 2 C L - P !> O § m a } f t c ? 3 9 0 o o o < D > i » ^ S < i ) s ) ~ 5 ) ~ 3 ^ M O s ; Q i o i g i i A;&3s 0 - 3p o > ® a i ix© b i f ti C >J > P - jr -2( G £ £ % £ £ £ « S ! M O S Q t ~ 5 l i H S ^ S ) ~ 5 1 ^ 46 42 46 54 73 77 77 85 69 62 54 54 62 62 44- 4- 4- 4- 4- _ O 4- - 4- 4- 4- 4- - - 4- - - - - - o + + + -_- + V _ 4_ + - + S- 't> O + 4- 4- - - - .^T* - 4- + + + 4- O* ^. - - 4 - 4 - - * - + + o + 4 - 4 - H - 4 - 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- - 4- 44- 4- - 4- - + 4- t 4- 0 _ 4- 4- _ - 4- 4- 4- 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- 4- Unol ft rH 0 i 0 I o 4- Sep-Oct bfl Aug-Sep r-{ 1964 1963 1964 Sep-Oct 13 industrial isaterials components + -*-+ £L + + --- + + + -t4- K3» "" . . . -- -S 4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted (except for all- industry totals) by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. NA = not available. Average for August 17, 18, and 19. fl JJ in ji_r\ii_ J i uuie u.—u'mt.i- i iwrt wr -LIM I Ul—JUIMLJ rujino.—jui_ i—i/uo i w i Labor market | size rank f (D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs 5-month spans 1-month spans 1963 26 area components H ho a. -P > o C 3 »-3 f-H 2 *-3 -P O O > 5 25 3 3 # 8 ai a i t i i i 47 labor market areas^ * »- bD S <$ ft 0) CO 1963 1964 O H ^ _ 3 £ £ 3 g 3 3 3 £ < S : i £ C ^ 3 fH h >i C r-l tlD ft -R > bo ft -P 1964 > o C ^ 3 f H ^ l > , d r H t j O O - P > O t ^ 3 CD o o 0) ) d < D ^ ^ £i §i • i ^ i ^ i^ i5 * 8 ^ ^ 7 1 "? <? ^ •=? (o - Ja O ^ g sf jt j r^ f HP a 3i ^ ^ ^D c On O ^( Q i C ft f* f-t > > C r - t l il D ia - P > ^» fn FH >> fl H A jf ^ ^ i i i ^ i i i o i ^ i i i 0 p l 0 0 0 ( D ( f l ( D r f f t d B ^ 43 49 45 62 32 34 85 13 66 76 51 51 60 _ _ _ + _ _ £ 5* j 1§ < s j c O O S Q h > p ^ S < i J S | - 3 | - 3 54 64 68 70 40 32 68 49 51 83 79 55 70 _ _ _ + _ _ NORTHEAST REGION _ + 7 16 Buffalo 1 M-Ufi-rV 1 I New York. 21 + Philadelphia* * 8 Pittsburgh** 23 - + _ + + + + - - + + - + + - + - - + - * - - - + +*- + _ _ _ + _ + + - + + + + + _ 4- _ _ - + + + - _ + - + - + •*•- + -h -*• + - - -I- + + + + _ » _ - + .. + „ _ + _ + _ + _ _ _ + - - + - „ - + + i- -t- -f _ + + - - + •*-_ + o + - + - - + ^f + - * • + - _ NORTH CENTRAL REGION 3 18 10 26 5 25 22 15 13 9 Cleveland** _ + _ + « + + - + - - + _ + _ _ _ Knn<3fl<3 fli +v + + _ + + _ - + - + - + - + + + + - + _ . - + + - - + • ! • - - + - -^ + + _ -»• 4- - 4 + + + + + . + + - + + + _ + •*• + + - + -t- + _ _ + + + + + -H + + + f - - + - _ + _ + _ _ + + - - t + - + + + •*- + + - + + _ - + - + * + - CO 4+ + - + SOUTH REGION 20 Atlanta 12 17 H + - + - » - - - + _ _ _ + _ + + - + - WEST REGION 2 24 PnTtlnnri 6 19 Seattle* + - + - - - - + - + -»*-»• + + - - + - - + - + + - - - + _ t . ! : ; t ;;;::!: - = rising; o = unchanged; •*- = falling. Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. *Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in July 1 6 . 94 **Designated by Bureau of Snployment Security as an area of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in July 1 6 . 94 ^The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26. O en Table 6.-DIRECT10N OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued (D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments 3-month spans 1-month spans 1963 30 industry components f-< bo a, -*-> 1963 1964 > o 5 3 « 8 %a i i i t i i 5 3 4 » 8 % C , 0 £ < fn X C r - ( b O ( X - P > 0 3 £ £ < g £ £ 3 $ < S : i £ » 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 ( u a j a j j a o - i f l ^ r j ^ o j o o Q ^ t r - S - ^ S ^ ^ ^ W O Z 75 48 45 65 42 70 43 83 77 63 60 68 73 rH hO Q. += 1964 > O a- s 5 s ^ % 75 60 50 48 40 63 C ^ ) ^ » ^ > > P ^ t J D O * - P > O 3 £i gi 3 i g i £ i3 i3 £ < B £ £ i i i i i i S O Q - o Z O ( > 3 t J^ < - « as i S f < 3 t l - ^ '< ^x 3 t O S U l O - a 3 ! ^ 48 73 75 85 30 80 78 •$• Fabricated metal products Machinery •*• + — o + o + + + + -J- - -t- h + - + + + + + + - + + + _ - - - + + + - + + o - + + + o + o -- + + + t- - + - - - - - t + t + + I + *•- - + - - + + +• + 4* + + O - - O + + + o + + + + o + + •+• o + + + + + + + + o + + + + - - - + ° ° + + + 0 + 0 - + +• + -*- + o + + + o •»* -*- + - + + — — o + + o o + + +• + + + + Transportation equipment Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Food and kindred produc ts Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products + + — + — + + + + + + Furniture and fixtures + + + + o + - + * - - -1- _ o + + + 0 - 0 0 + o o o o - Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastics products Leather and leather products + 0 + _ + o + + + + + + + - + + o + -»• o + + .1 1 1 + o + + t + + + + + ^ o o - - Paper and allied products Printing and publishing + + O - Minins Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, real estate Services and miscellaneous Federal government State and local government + = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. + 0 0 - - + + - + O Q - - + + - - _ + - o + O 0 - - - - - - - o + - - - !-++++ i + O - + + + o - - - + + + + + + + + + + -i- + - - + + + + + + + + - 0 + - + 0 - +• 0 + - - + *• - o o + - - + 0 - Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined. c Ht cn Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued (D47) Index of Industrial Production 1-month spans 1963 bfl ft -P e , o f t - 3 ( i i C > O ,0 Q t ^ ( < > < > 0 7 rH •? 3 -H $ 1 bD CX % £ •3 3 3 <u o 1964 1963 1964 24- industry components r-< 3-month spans c f c > > c : r - i f a o P < - H ' > ^ S - < S ( - 3 | - 3 - < a 3 O S i i i i i i i i i ,0 ^i ^ ^ > C « - 4 b O P * - P d < u . f l i O * . f l i ; 3 r J : J a j o * . S < S ^ ' - a « a ; c o o 71 71 56 60 58 73 67 79 71 83 71 60 77 o o i > o s iH ^J ITS 1 FH SO 3 <5J 1 >» Q< Q> 03 1 C 4^ t) O 1 rH > O & 1 W) 0 W Q 1 P< -§* fi •? *? -3 C ^ i f - i Vi >sC*-H HOft-f 3 >• 0 $ i t i i i i 7 i i i i i 88 85 79 77 75 79 67 83 83 92 88 83 88 DURABLE GOODS Primary metal products * • * " *• ••• • •* + •• •• ••• - + 0 + + -- o - + + + - + + * - 1I I 'Miscellaneous + *. ••« + + -f + + + -f + + + + + + + - + + + + - - + + + + + o + + + - - NA + -h + + + + 0 Instruments and related products + :::::; -*•- + o + • + + + + _ _ _ . NA + • + + + + + + + + + + O NONDURABLE GOODS Textile mill products •• « • »•*• ... + + + + + + + + - - + + - + - + - _ _ _ + NA - + - + f NA NA + + + + + + + + + 4- - NA - NA + + _ + •---•+-* + + - + -f + - + NA + - NA + NA NA 0 + t + + ::;;:; + + + + + + NA _ + + + + + NA + + + + + NA NA + - _ - + + _ . NA + + NA NA :::::: + + + — + + + + ~ ; ;;o : ! MINERALS o Metal, stone, and earth minerals Metal mining o e an a + - - - + . NA + + " + " - • - - - --NA + + + NA NA + -f + + f - NA o + + + + + NA + = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined. NA = not available; ^ direction of change is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industrye are used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 2 . industry components. 4 s VI Pr in tine and publishing Coal + + _ + NA Analytical Measures 48 i OOQ-Itlf (1) 4^ •3 —S-T 0) dog-^dv 3nv-j*w ^tlp—C^Q^ ,* 8 urif-msi1 H i m bl0 p)+. + + + + + + I . + . - * - ! + 1 1 + , + + + + + + + ^ + + + + + + H . + + + + + + J.4, + + , , + + + + + + A*Bfl-OQ(I •H •P idlf— AQ PJ -V £ jj m -"35T+00 qoi-dog UBf— Sny o©(j— "[tip LU o: a. o AO|J— UTlp c^ vD deg-jdy Suy— .iBjsj tnp-qo^ o R *H to -d TO 00+ ^4- + + + I l+l 1 + I + + + I 1+ + + + + I l+l ^+ + . . . + 1 + + , + + + + + + + , , + + I . 1 , 1 5 ^4- 4- i ' + + + + + + + ' + + + 1 + l o + + o i i + § § 0) ^ + 4- + + + + + + + l+ ++ i+ i + + i t+ I+ + + CD •s 1 1 LU a. n Q£ M° < *^ *^> I LU dag-Snv Sny— "[r.£* ?. a inf-unf <tf s UTlf — J^'SH ^"G^— jdy ady-a^i •iB^— qsj qaj-UBf UBf-oaa 09Q-AON H) 8 H O a. LU <D pS 43 0+ 1 I + + I 1 1 1 + i + | + + | + +4.4,4,, | + i g , + + + . + + 4 , t + + o + + + +. . . , + + + + , ^4- i + 1 + 1 | + + I++ 1 I+ + + + 4 - I + + + + + CV+ 1 I + Q + + + + ++ 1 1+ 1 1 + + 1+ 1 1 1 1 + 31 + + 4 - + I + I I + . ) + | + , . + , I O t . + . 0* H at o 5 2 P •f=j 'd «) s s a) 2 aJ to+ + + + i i + i i i i I + + + + + + + + I + + i i JfJ 1 I l l l l l l l 1 1 1 + 4 - 1 1 + + + I I + I + + + + + + + I Q + + 0 + 0 1 + + I CO « I + I + I I I 4 * ^+ ^oQ-dag d39~Bt\v §nv-inp sO s S ,0 tl U ^ S AON- +00 ID 0 43 *oo-das £ Q) I+ + + + +I + 03(1 "*AOM O § 4^ l l + + l + . 0 + + + + + l ^ + AOf{— ^OQ a: LU 9 43 O CH O £i Q 0) g tu Q) t £ bb 5 .ore components O (- rH ,-( ! : : :::::::: : : : : : : : : £ : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 53 : : : : : : : II 1 1 1 § w r°H •H J 0) 5 f •tH d J . W <o W • W L Q . O W W 4 J o) <u • +> a> ^ ^ ^ O O W W M S ^. •H (H «£! W O ?J P -H O Q) f-t W O r H C < l > W t J a ) O ro ^ d O Q ) r H O H w i T fdrcH o d II 0 Ocrf+S^iO^i433 ftqJWWaJg-Pd a)ftFHQ><D ott> .5 tSel! 3> , cW -D i t <P Q > C . H W M M O -P 'H O d h 0 <H Q> *H fn Q ^ tlOrH jQ (Q4^fjd tkO (0 •H f-t '-} I tooie o.-umcv, i IUN ur in iCKiCi UJMruNtNJi ANU PtKLtN I Ul- >tKIti KliJNfc: JULY IV63 TU PKtbbNT-Continuea (058) fndex of Wholesale Prices, All Manufacturing 1-month spans 1963 23 manufacturing industries i-t WJ CU +> 1 3 % 8 C ri A) i 3 £ I# 5-month spans 1964 > o 1963 § & C , a f H f H > * C i - t t i 0 a < - ^ > > e j O l 4 > . f l l Q < j l l ^ 3 ^ ( U O O 4 ) ^ f ^ S j ^ S ^ ^ ^ W O S Q 81 3> sA Q ' -&s f<oe S < U 2 ' - a ^ > < i ; c ftJO^rJgooo OO2: O C fi t* FH ^ C H t i p C X - P > 48 59 59 76 70 61 59 63 46 63 44 46 65 o o - + — o + - - + - O 0 1964 •S <! W1 Q ^ 9 § SP S o § 8 ^ i Q) P4 i rf S i ft *«! }£, ^ S AH P 3 *-> »-3 ^ O ^ M > » 5 H t i D a * - P > 0 a > < d a a j 3 3 P a > o o a ) ^ ^ ^ ^ J ^ H . ^ ^ C O C D S C , i t i C ^ Oi OA Di c ir i t iD ' d t tct B pH i P p J C l f : f l H <ijcoo£;Q ~3P^S' iis ~3 3 52 52 70 74 72 70 74 72 67 70 54 56 50 DURABLE GOODS + + - - 0 - + 0 + - 0 - Nonf errous metals - - o — — o + + + — o + + + + + O 0 i- i- O + + + + + + + o + + + + + + 0 + + > + i- 1. i. .». + + + + + + + _ % - > - + - + + General purpose machinery and equipment Miscellaneous machinery . a - n riy -q. p Miscellaneous products — o •j- -»- o •*• o + » * + + 4- 4+ — O — O + O - o - o * o * * + + t + + -h -f + +• + + + + ° + + IT f + - - < + + + + + + + !» -• !* •• + + O + + -*• t- •+• o NONDURABLE GOODS n> Processed foods , o - -*• + -t- + + » - + - + + -*- •*• + + o - - o f f + Pulp, paper and all led -produntp .T o •*• + — - o - •** o •o- - -a --•**-. o o + + - + o o •*- o + o - o o •*• •*• - + o - - + •»• + - + _ + o + -fr + _ + -!••*• + - + o + + — o o + + + •+• + + + + + + + - -- ---.-...._ -h = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling, Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census mined. + + + + + + + + - J - - - - - — + + 0 + _ _ + a + Wool products -------before the direction of change is deter- 50 Cyclical Patterns COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle. PERIOD COVERED Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 {Reference trough: Oct. 1949) July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) .=._=_ July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961} 0 1 1 1 1 m [rmTpTrrqTTTTrprrn rjTTrrrp I I! I I 1 I I I I I - Penod begins with Reference trough dotes Indicates the point at which this expansion reached its reference peak. 9. Construction contracts awarded, comm. and indus. 1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg. 29. New pvt. housing units authorized, local bldg. permits 24. Mfrs.' new orders moch. and equip. Indus. 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 Months from reference troughs +30 +36 +42 -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +-30 + 42 Months from reference troughs *Reforence peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For serte with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter i set'at "'00". MCD values ore shown in appendix C x See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7. 2 For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving overage is shown. 51 Cyclical Patterns CHART 4| COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con. Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with the reference peak dote preceding the trough of each cycle. PERIOD COVERED Mov, 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trouch; Oct. 1949) July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) May 1960 to present1 (Reference trouch: Feb. 1961) i I III I I I III I 1 I I I I I I I I I J] Index Reference trough dates Indicates the point at which this expansion reached its reference peak. i M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Ti Inde -<- Reference trough dates 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks -12 -6 +6 +12 +18 +24 Months from reference troughs +30 +42 -12 -6 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +42 Months from reference troughs * Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak monlh is set at "100", For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is sefat "100", MGD values are shown in appendix C. ^Jee table 2 fo latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and compmable months of previous expansions are shown in fable 7. 52 Cyclical Patterns COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con. Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle. PERIOD COVERED lnd«K —— Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) — ~~ July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr 1958) May 1960 to present! (Reference trough: Fob. 1961) ~ Reference trough dates Indicates the point at which this expansion reached its reference peak. Index 43. Unemployment rate, total /Inverted/ 110 105 41. Employees in nonagri establishments *100 llOr- 55. Wholesale prices, except farm prod, ond foods 105- "•100 -»'. 95 L- -J95 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 Months from reference troughs +30 +36 +42 -12 0 +6 412 +18 *24 +30 U2 Months from reference troughs * Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is sot ot "100". For series w c t h an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set'at "100". MCD values ore shown in appendix C See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in tsble 7. Cyclical Patterns CHART 4| 53 COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con. impored for 4 business cycles. Period begins with Percent of reference peak levels of selected series coi the reference peak date precedi ng the trough of each cycle. PERIOD COVERED f HM M ! I M ] I I M H I M M I I ! I I I j I I I I ! I M I I I I 1 Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949} July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961) Index Reference trough dates Indicates the point at which this expansion reached its reference peak. Index 'V'-. ;' -" ^ v A \ <\ \ / \ 95U -12 0 46 +12 +18 +24 Months from reference troughs +30 +36 +42 -12 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 42 Months from reference troughs * Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series with on MCD of "3" or more, the overage of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is sefot "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C. Hee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7. Cyclical Patterns 54 CHART 4| COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con. Percent of reference peolc levels of selected series compored for 4 business cycles. Period begins with the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle. PERIOD COVERED 1i 1 f n 1 i1 1 1 1 1 1 1i nTrni 11 Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) • July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) — _ - July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961) * Index Index -*?• Reference trough dotes Indicates the point at which this expansion reached its reference peak. 62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output, all mfg. TT 67. Bank rotes, short-term business loans 64. Mfrs. inventories, oil mfg, industries 90 L -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 Months from reference troughs +30 +36 +42 -12 -6 +6 +12 HB *24 »36 142 Months from reference troughs -^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set ot "100". For scries witli an MCD of "3" or more, the overage of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set'at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C. ^ee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7. 2 Last 3 quarter* anticipated, Cyclical Patterns 55 COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins with the specific trough date 1 of each series for each expansion. Index PERIOD COVERED From specific trough dates to 45 months later.2 Specific trough dotes are the dates each series actually begins the expansion identified with the reference trough of— 1949 1954 9. Construction contracts awarded, comm. and indus, bldgs. 3 1958 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -Specific trough dotes 1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg "100 24. Mfrs,' new orders, mach. and equip. Indus -105 100" 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 Months from specific troughs +36+42 0 + 6 + 1 2 + 1 8 +24 +30 Months from specific troughs +36 +42 * Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1* or "2",the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C. 2 ^ee appendix B for specific dates. See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific 3 troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9. For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 2* For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown. 56 Cyclical Patterns COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con. Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion, PERIOD COVERED From specific trough dates to 45 months later. Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the expansion identified with the reference trough of— 1949 1954 +6 1958 1961 + 12 +18 +24 +30 Months from specific troughs +36 +42 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 Months from specific troughs +36 +42 ^Specific trough level. For series with o "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2*, the figure for the specific trough is set ot "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100", For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100", MCD values are shown in appendix C, l 2 $ee appendix B for specific dates. See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific 3 troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9. For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 2* Cyclical Patterns 57 COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS»Con. Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins with the specific trough date1 of each series far each expansion. Index PERIOD COVERED From specific trough dates to 45 months later. Specific trough dotes are the dates each series actually begins the expansion identified with the reference trough of-- -1115 Index 300 II I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 II I I I 1 I I I j I I t ) l 41. Employees in nortagri. establishments j—^-Specific trough dates 43. Unemployment rate, total [inverted ] - no 105 - 100* 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 11 1 1 1 1 1 11 I 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 Months from specific troughs +36 +42 -1-12 +18 +24 +30 Months from specific troughs +36 +42 ^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the overage of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100", For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C 2 ^ee appendix B for specific dates. See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9. Cyclical Patterns 58 Table 7-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 34, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MCI) of "3" or more {series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak tnonth is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter. See also MOD footnote to appendix C. Selected series Months Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning in— after reference July July Nov. Mar. June Oct. Aug. Apr. Feb. 1938 trough1 1921 1924 1949 1954 1958 1927 1933 1961 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek of production workers, 41 2 . Accession rate manufacturing 40 3 . Layoff rate, manufacturing ( inverted ).**.... 40 6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 41 7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started.. 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2... 40 u 13. 14. 16. 17. 19. 23. 24. Number of new business incorporations Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.). Corporate profits after taxes (Q) Price per unit of labor cost index.......... Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks.... Index of industrial materials prices Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits 40 40 39 41 41 41 94.8 28.0 32.3 85.8 48.0 66.2 73.4 101.5 103.0 54.4 108.0 119.6 66.7 113.0 183.3 95.1 99.7 KX1.5 61.6 111. B 103.4. 48.3 100.0 160.0 203.4 126.0 174.1 153.2 51.3 42.3 63.6 186.1 76.5 136.5 95.7 114.9 138.5 86.7 122 . 5 120.2 33.0 36.1 (NA) 35.8 10.6 38.4 96.5 63.6 £05.3 100.7 61.3 25.3 121.3 78.0 75.0 5.7 (NA) (NA) (WA) 121.8 115.1 501.4 68.6 59.5 83.3 165.7 125.4 228.6 124.1 114.7 106.6 122.3 67.6 116.4 127.2 130.9 69.7 (MA) 191.8 in. 5 BO. 7 51.5 47.1 218.6 95.5 103.6 97.3 (m] (NA) 97.2 96.6 101.6 170.0 169.3 138.7 52.7 57.7 84.6 96.8 77.9 107,0 99.1 102. B 59.1 HO. 3 102.4 150.7 98.5 41 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 162.8 41 (NA) (NA) (MA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 41 41 41 39 39 41 41 41 82.9 (NA) 106.0 (NA) (NA) 100.2 (NA) 106.3 92.3 79.4 (NA) (NA) 101.6 83.6 1X2.5 86.9 114.6 98.9 126.9 87.3 U4. 5 39.6 108.8 94.6 90.7 (NA) 93.7 78.8 98.1 62.5 79.1 86.8 118.6 (NA) H3.5 140.2 (NA) 129.3 135.4 128.2 111.6 H4.8 134.9 137.1 124.1 H2.7 134.2 129.2 103.3 45.5 98.6 119.9 108.2 129.2 121.8 118.2 102,7 62.7 109,6 116.5 109.6 125.2 11.8.7 109.4 107.9 106.1 120.7 122.7 116.2 140.2 122.0 119.7 41 64.9 $6.6 77.1 87.1 107.9 107.8 109.1 101.2 100.0 36 45 44.5 54.8 91.2 100.2 64.9 41.4 49.3 64.7 41 40 40 75.6 (NA) (NA) 90.1 (NA) (NA) 83.3 81.7 (NA) 81.9 (NA) 106.1 39 77.7 87.7 93.3 117.3 113.5 133.0 (MA) 113.9 118./+ NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural establishments 43 . Unemployment rate, total ( inverted ) 47. Index of industrial production. 49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q) 50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) . Q. 51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers 52 . Personal income '54, Sales of retail stores 35. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities other than farm products and foods . . . . . .... NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q):3 a.. .. » 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing 66, Consumer installment debt 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q) 55.4 (NA) 120.0 (NA) 129.5 134.3 107,9 88.7 117.2 94.6 125.1 99.8 97.7 113.2 111.2 113.7 (NA) H9.7 116.9 103.1 111.2 157.6 (NA) 153.2 128.1 136.7 (NA) 134.1 130.0 103.3 93.3 NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the peak hud been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates. NA Not available. 1 Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. 2 Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. 3 Coraparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 36 months after the February 1961 trough (actual expenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1 6 ) 94. Cyclical Patterns 59 Table 8.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS For series with & "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 2,3, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base. For series with an NCD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C. Selected series Months Percent change from reference trough of expansion after beginning in— referNov. Mar. June ' Oct. Aug. Apr. July ence July 1924 1927 trough1 1921 1933 1938 .1949 1954 1958 Feb. 1961 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek of production workers, 41 40 3 . Layoff rate manufacturing ( inverted ) . . . 40 .*.. 6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable 41 7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started. . 41 9. Construction contracts awarded for commer40 cial and industrial bldgs., floor space2... +4.8 +3.7 -12.6 +8.8 +16.4 . +3.8 -2.5 +3.1 +3.0 (NA) +30.6 -34.3 +32.8 +20.9 , +34.6 -15.1 +21.8 -2.5 -6.6 +80.6 +127.8 +173.3 -25.3 +68.4 +82.2 (HA) +4.2 +188.2 +12.5 -48.6 +77.9 +54.7 -59.3 (NA) (NA) +91.3 (NA) +45.3 -10.5 +41.1 +38.9 -62,0 +201.5 +6.8 +30.2 +47.9 -25.9 +26.2 +20.6 (NA) +43.8 +18.4 3.0 -12.0 -21.5; +42.2 (NA) +160.7, +34.5 -33.4 (NA) +39.3 -92.3 +33.3 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)1 +93.4 -7.0 +154.7 -8.2 -0.7 -38.9 +87.6 +58.1 +35.5 +31.3 +37.1 -31.5 +28.7 +7.4 +58.9 +14.1 +10.6 -39.5 +62.6 +4.5 +33.9 +3.2 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) +85.7 +26.0 +28.6 +40.3 41 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 41 41 41 39 .'39 41 41 41 +20.3 (NA) +55.2 +25.3 +26.0 +29.2 +37.8 +13.3 +6.3 (NA) +23.7 +15.1 +14.9 +31.0 +14.5 +8.8 -17.3 (NA) -11.2 -13.4 -3.3 -19.7 -11.2 -5.4 +32.6 +88.4 +94.3 +56.4 +36.2 +64.0 +60.7 +65.0 +32.3 •(NA) +110.0 +59.(2 (NA) +54,8 +52.0 +57.2 41 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks.... 40 40 39 41 41 41 41 14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.). -12.2 +50.2 (NA) (NA) +55.6 +63.9 +2.5 +11.3 +7.7 -2.4 -15.3 +22.2 +21.6 -1.6 -1.6 +63.6 +33.8 -3.2 +12.6 24, Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units author- -2.9 -23.9 +12.0 +22.1 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural 47. 49. 50. 51. Index of industrial productioni * Gross national product in current dollars (Q) Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) . Q. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers 54. Sales of retail stores 55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities -5.1 -17.2 +17.5 +202.7 +47.4 +41.8 +25.9 +48.6 +40.3 +29.2 +6.9 +5.2 +8.4 +22.2 +11.5 +27.1 +22.1 +19.0 +7.1 +10.4 +27.6 +19.5 +14. 0 +29.2 +19.1 +11.1 +10.0 +40.8 +28.3 +23.4 +18.3 +36.9 +20.8 +22.1 +20.3 +14*2 +13.6 +10.0 +1.7 +0.1 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total ( ) 3 Q: 36 45 +29.8 +30.7 -26.1 +187.2 +59.5 +43.6 -52.9 +276.9 41 40 40 (NA) +50.0 +40.6 +10.5 +25.7 (NA) +61.8 +13.0 +17.7 +34.1 -6.1 -4.3 -16.0 -12.3 -15-4 +11.4 +9.1 +15.6 +11.3 (NA) (NA) (NA) +38.2 (N,A) +60.3 +25.1 +6.9 +12.5 (NA) (NA) (NA) +121.9 +63.0 +86.4 +48.2 +27.0 +32.2 39 -27.9 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q) 0.0 -3.1 -28.9 (NA) +33.6 +36.2 +19.7 +0.4 NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921;, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the peak had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels' reached on those dates. NA Not available. ^-Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. 2 Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-te:rm moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. 3 Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 36 months after the February 1961 trough (actual expenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1 6 ) 94. Cyclical Patterns 60 Table 9.-PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS For series with a "months for eyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 1%, 53, and 54), the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 9, 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter. See also MOD footnote to appendix C. Selected series Months after July specific 192X trough1 43 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks.... 23. Index of industrial materials prices 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin- Nov. 1927 Mar. 1933 June 1938 Oct. 1949 Aug. 1954 Apr . Feb. 1956 1961 Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion beginning in year shown NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek of production workers, 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2... 13 * Number of new business incorporations July 1924 37 41 41 45 43 (MA) "97.8 -lOO.O 70. H 100.0 (we) :;9fj.8 "99.0 100.0 *45 * 2 "1H.6 "108.2 24.1 205. 5 45.6 (xnc) 91. . 1n;"}.r "86+ 3 -106.8 mo. 5 "70.4 36.7 6^.7 (NSC) »138.1 95. H (NA) "107.2 '•'90.3 "101.0 99.6 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) -99.2 161.4 (NSC) 47.5 49,3 "153.6 -186.3 "122.5 139.3 "71*3 "iQQ.8 "76. 6 75.8 103.9 "135. 1 -65.1 "92.9 96.0 44 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) "21X. 6 "106.2 ®99.2 130.6 43 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 90.7 (NA) 82.8 78.8 8S.3 79.3 73.6 84.6 118.0 (NA) 143.5 133.5 (NA) 139'. 3 167. S 139.1 111.5 (MA) 133.5 130.5 118.6 134.2 146.3 (NSC) NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural 43 * Unemployment rate, total ( inverted ) 47. Index of industrial production 49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q) 50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).. 53, Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe.. 54. Sales of retail stores. *.....*...*.**..•.... 41 38' 42 39 39 43 43 39 (NA) (NA) ma. 3 "108.2 "116.2 (NA) (NSC) (NSC) (NA) (NSC) (NSC) (NA) "iii.i "112.9 (NA) (NA) (NA) 102.9 (NSC) (NSC) (NA) "96.§ 91.6 " lOILO 107.6 -67.5 "7B.2 100.0 "109.2 "109.0 11.8.8 "12,1.6 "112. 4 122.7 -110.1 «107.6 3116.2 "122.6 11?. 4 m..i "116.1 noa.3 116.3 1U.4 '-109. 4 UB.2 *1Q«.4 Percent change from specific trough related to reference expansion beginning In year shown NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek of production workers, 43 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2... 13, Number of n^w bu^in^ss incorporations. . . . ... 17. Price per unit of labor cost index 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks.... 23. Index of industrial materials prices. . . . . ... 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin- *91.3 --•96.6 "105.6 (NA) "+15. A *+7.9 "+/, . 5 +4.6 +19.9 +&.? -+/,.! "•-i'i.2 +5.7 "+11S.5 *+23.6 (NA) *+46.2 *+75.0 *+82.6 "+42.9 (NA) +89.5 *+36.7 44 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits 37 41 41 45 43 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) %18Q.l -+89-9 "+36.7 +41*3 43 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) "+§6.3 +22 „ 9 +32.3 (NA) +112.2 +59.2 (NA) +59.5 +128.7 +72.2 +17.5 +194.8 +48.2 +35.3 +21. § +40.7 +67.3 (NSC) **9.'; *+7.6 + 10.0 "+61. 9 "+54.2 +44.9 "+21. 3 "+27.2 +28.5 «+24.9 *+l6.4 +23.4 "+14. 3 *+12.') + •18.3 "+24. ? +19.8 3+21.7 "+17. 6 +22.2 fr+25.6 +20.3 "+13. 7 +23.1 "+40. 1 +149. S (NA) +46.3 (NSC!) "+20. 5 "+12.? -54.1 +11.1 (NSC) (NA) (NA) (NA) "+15. 2 "-+6.8 (NSC) +211.5 -9.7 "+87. /< •-H09.6 *.+7.3 +103. £ +60. a '4-100.3 "+24.7 +33,5 3^4.6 "+§1,7 +12.1 "+9,4 +/;.5 "H8.1 +54.9 *+17.4 45. 9 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Number of employees in nonagricultural 47." Index of industrial production 49. Gross national product in current dollars(Q) 50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) . Q. 52 . Personal income *. 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe.. 41 38 42 39 39 43 43 39 »+32.6 *+12.C *+ll. 5 +32.^ (NA) +79. t (NA) (NA) *+66.1 *+31.7 #+24.9 +77.5 (NA) (NSC) (NSC) +56.^ (NA) (NSC) (NSC) +31.3 *+32 . 8*+15.5 "+15. 9 +61. S (NA) (NA) +106. £ (NA) +20.7 (NSC) (NSC) +65. C NA Not available. NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates. ^Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the roontl indicated in the first column. The figure shown represents the change to the specific peak and the period covered is shorter than that of the current expansion (col. 1)* See appendix B for specific peak dates. ^•Based on period of the most recent specific expansion for eacji series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough to the latest month shown in table 2. The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by an asterisk { ) Specific trough dates are shown in appendix B. *. 2 Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted seriesu 3 Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 2 and the high preceding that low. Appendixes Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961 Duration in months Business cycle reference dates Contraction (trough from previous peak) Cycle Expansion (trough to peak) Trough from previous trough Peak from previous peak Peak Trough December 1854 December 1858 June 1861 December 186? December 1870 March 1879 June 1857 October I860... April 1865 June 1869 October 1873... March 1882 XXX 30 22 46 Iff 34 36 XXX XXX 18 8 32 18 65 48 30 78 36 99 40 54 50 52 101 May 1885 April 1888 May 1891 June 1894June 1897 December 1900 March 1887 July 1890 January 1893... December 1895.. June 1899 September 1902. 38 13 10 17 18 18 22 27 20 18 24 21 74 35 37 37 36 42 60 40 30 35 42 39 August 1904 June 1908 January 1912 December 1914 March 1919 July 1921 May 1907 January 1910... January 1 1 . . 93. August 1 1 . . 98.. January 1 2 . . 90. May 1923 23 13 24 23 7 18 33 19 12 44 TO 22 44 46 43 35 51 56 32 36 6? 17 40 July 1924 November 1927 March 1933 June 1938 October 1945 October 1 4 99 October 1926... August 1929.... May 1937. February 1945.. November 1 4 . 98. July 1953 13 43 13 1 11 27 21 50 80 37 36 40 64 63 88 48 41 34 93 93 45 56 August 1954 July 1957 April 1958 February 1961 May I960 48 34 13 9 9 35 25 Average, all cycles: 26 cycles, 1854-1961 10 cycles, 1919-1961 4 cycles, 1945-1961 19 15 10 30 35 -36 49 50 46 Average, peacetime cycles: 22 cycles, 1854-1961 8 cycles, 1919-1961 3 cycles, 1945-1961 20 16 10 26 28 32 45 45 42 34 3 46 6 42 NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions. X 25 cycles, 1857-1960. *21 cycles, 1857-1960, 2 5 9 cycles, 1920-1960. 7 cycles, 1920-1960. 3 6 4 cycles, 1945-1960. 3 cycles, 1945-1960. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research. 61 Appendixes 62 Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that eaeh series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates are thooe dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. Thig table shows, for selected leading and eoineident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles. Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in — Selected series Feb. 1961 Apr. 1958 Aug. 1954 Oct. 1949 June 1938 Mar. 1933 Nov. 1927 July 1924 July 1921 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek of production Dec. '60 Apr. '58 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs . . NSC . Jun.'58 13. Number of new business ineorporat ions Jan. '61 Nov. '57 17. Price per unit of labor cost index. Feb. ' 61 Apr. '58 19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Oct. '60 Dec. '57 23. Index of industrial mat, prices....Dec. '60 Apr. '58 24, Value of rafrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Nov.1 60 Feb. '58 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local bldg. permits-. Dec. '60 Feb. '58 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments Feb. '61 my '58 43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) May '61 Jul.'SS 47. Index of industrial production Jan. "61 Apr. '58 49. GNP in current dollars (Q) IstQ' 61 IstQ' 58 50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q) IstQ' 61 IstQ' 58 52 . Personal income Feb. '58 NSC 53. Labor income in mining, manufacDec. '60 Apr. '58 54. Sales of retail stores Apr. « 61 Mar. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 Jun.'32 Apr. '28 Jul.°24 Feb. '2: NSC Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul.(24 Mar, '2: NSC Dec. '53 Sep. '53 Feb. '54 Feb., '49 May '49 Jun.'49 Jun.'49 Dec. '34 NA Jun.'32 Jul.'32 Dee. '26 NA NSC Aug.'2S Jun,'24 NA Get. '23 Jun.'24 Jan, '21 NA Aug.1 2] Jul.'2] Mar. » 54 Apr. '49 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Aug. '54 Sep. ' 54 Apr. '54 2ndQ' 54 2ndQ' 54 Mar. '54 Oct. '49 Oct. '49 Oct. '49 2nd Q1 49 2ndQ'49 Oct,'49 Jun.'38 Jun,'38 May '38 2ndQ'38 IstQ' 38 May '38 Mar. '33 May '33 Jul.'32 IstQ' 33 3rdQ'32 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 NA Nov. '27 NSC NSC 4thQ'26 Jul.'24 NA Jul.'24 NSC NSC 2ndQ'24 Jul.'g] NA Apr.'a:i 4thQ'23 NA 2ndQ'2] NA NSC NA Mar. '22 Sep. '39 NA Apr. '38 Jun.'38 Aug. '54 Oct. ' 9 Jun.'38 Mar. '33 NA 4 Jan. '54 NSC May »38 Mar. '33 NSC Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in— Selected series toy 1960 July 1957 July 1953 Nov. 1948 May 1937 Aug. 1929 Oct. 1926 May 1923 Jan. 1920 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek of production Apr. ' 59 Nov.1 55 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC mr.'56 13. Number of new business incorpoApr. '59 Feb. '56 17. Price per unit of labor cost index. May '59 Dec. » 55 19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59 Jul.'56 23. Index of industrial mat. prices....Nov. '59 Dec. '55 24. Value of rafrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Jul.'59 Nov. '56 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov. '58 Feb. '55 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Number of employees in nonagriculApr, '60 Mar. '57 43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb. '60 Mar. '57 47. Index of industrial production Jan. '60 Feb. '57 49. GNP in current dollars (Q)» 2nd Q1 60 3rdQ'57 50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q) 2ndQ'60 3rdQ' 57 NSC Aug. '57 ,53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction rfey '60 Jul.'57 '54 * Sales of retail stores Apr.1 60 Aug.* 57 NA not available. Apr. '53 NSC Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22 MA NSC Mar. '46 Jul.'37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19 NSC Feb. '51 Jan. '53 Feb. '51 Jul.'46 Jan. '48 Jun.'48 Jan. '48 Jan. '29 NA Sep. '29 Mar. '29 Oet,'25 NA NSC Nov. '25 Apr. '23 NA Mar. '23 Mar. '23 Dee. '19 Na JU1.'19 A?r.'2C 4 Feb. '51 Apr. ' 8 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA I NA NA Jul.'53 Jun.'53 Jul.'53 2ndQ' 53 2nd Q' 53 Oct. '53 Jul.'48 Jan. '48 Jul.'48 4thQ' 48 4thQ'48 Oot.'48 Jul.'37 Jul.'37 May '37 3rdQ'37 3rdQ'37 Jun.'37 Aug. '29 NA Jul.'29 3rdQ'29 3rdQ'29 Aug. '29 Jan. '26 NA Mar. '27 NSC NSC 2nd Q' 26 Dec. '36 NA Feb. '37 Mar. '37 Jul.'53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29 NA Mar, * 53 NSC Sep. '37 Sep.* 29 NSC NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates. Jun.'23 NA May '23 NSC NSC lstQ'24 Jan. '20 NA, Feb. '20 NA NA NA NA NSC NA Jul.'20 Appendixes 63 Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes Monthly series CI I NBER LEADING INDICATORS Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg .9 4 .2 4 Accession rate, manufacturing 4.92 ! 4.69 1.29 Nonagricultural placements, all industries,... 1.82 Layoff rate manufacturing 8.05 9.52 Temporary layoff all industries «... 17.76 17.12 Avg. weekly initial claims, State unemploy4.62 5.29 6. New orders, durable goods industries. *.. 3.25 3.79 1. 2. 30. 3. 4. 5. 24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus 4.47 9. .Construction contracts, commercial and industrial 9.66 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment 4.93 7. Private nonfarm housing starts 7.34 29. New building permits, private housing .. . . 3.82 13. New business incorporations. 2.68 14. Liabilities of business failures 16.86 4.01 c I/c MCD 1/5 for MCD span Average duration of run (ADR) CI I C MCD 2.15 10.58 9.00 9.77 8.40 6.35 4.06 5.64 5.25 5.39 3.08 .21 1.72 1.18 4.02 3.99 2.00 2.73 1.09 2.00 4.29 2 3 2 3 5 .95 .89 .59 .0 7 .9 8 2.27 2.21 1.63 1.65 1.54 1.63 1.73 1.44 2.49 1.61 1.86 2.02 2 3 .86 .59 1.72 1.67 1.51 1.54 1.61 2.49 3 .84 1.76 1.51 12.50 3.62 1 ;.8s 9.77 3.94 8.33 - 4.56 9.43 4.61 7.31 3.39 2.36 16.36 1.67 1.47 1.14 1.48 1.10 2.52 5.65 3.14 6.41 2.29 2.15 6.49 6 4 6 3 3 6 C) .82 C1) .68 .77 t1) 1.70 1.82 1.53 1.89 2.10 1.48 1.54 1.59 1.53 1.53 1.70 1.32 6.63 10.75 6.13 14.38 6.30 5.77 3.03 3.71 2.32 3.32 3.02 2.26 1*3. Large business failures. 13.09 12.81 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing .56 .69 19. Rtnnlc prlnps, 5 0 c.nrnmnn stocks. . . . . . . . 0 ....... 1.86 2.65 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher 5.29 6.81 26, Production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer 5.81 5.32 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries 7.68 5.54 1.32 1.04 2.11 .33 1.67 6.07 1.70 1.11 6 2 2 t1) .4 9 .68 1.53 2.23 2.35 1.37 1.74 1.67 9.77 7.47 12.70 5.30 3.60 3.94 3.10 1.71 3 .66 ,2.54 1.76 10.58 4.63 2.14 2.49 3 .6 7 il,87 1.63 12.70 3.91 4.73 .4 7 1.37 1.41 2 2 .79 .95 3.53 2.44 2.12 2.05 9.77 11.55 4.20 4.06 2.05 1.62 1.58 1.63 2.12 1.60 14.11 18.71 8.19 10.90 9.07 9.62 5.29 3.33 3*33 4.91 3.74 3.47 2.05 1.53 1.84 1.90 1.80 2.65 9.77 18.14 18.14 11.55 9.54 11.55 3.53 4.31 3.43 3.43 3.62 3.53 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments... 42. Total nonagricultural employment. 43. Unemployment rate total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment, State.... 46. Help-wanted advertising •••«. .30 .36 4.19 5.98 4.82 3.11 .15 .29 3.14 5.02 2.56 1.88 .25 .19 2.41 2.86 3.56 2.35 .0 6 1.53 1.10 1.76 .72 .80 1 2 2 2 1 1 51. Bank debits outside NYC 52 . Personal income 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction.... 54. Sales of retail stores... 55. Wholesale prices, except farm prod, and foods. 1.09 1.48 .9 4 ,81 .78 .17 .58 1.44 .27 .53 .63 .10 .9 7 .0 6 .41 .61 .4 4 .13 .73 2.40 .66 .7 8 1.43 .77 1 3 1 1 2 1 . 0 5.29 6 . 9 ' 1.82 7 . 9 2.67 6 .88 2.53 .72 , 3.74 . 0 3.47 8 i .73 3.53 .54 ' 1.69 .66 3.43 .87 3.43 .85 , 2.53 .77 3.53 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing.. 64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories 65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of .65 .54 .8 4 ,1 .9 .36 .9 4 1,33 .39 2 1 .72 2.27 .39 , 8.33 1.55 9.07 2.02 13.89 66. Consumer 'installment debt .00 .83 .54 .17 .9 4 .78 1.10 *22 2 1 .53 2.40 .22 , 11.45 1.42 2.29 5.59 5.68 5.20 5.37 26.37 26.37 . . 15.12 14.78 . 26.25 26.21 .82 .95 4.09 2.70 6.12 6.82 5-47 6.45 5.47 4.28 6 6 6 6 6 . « 23.31 23.46 5.69 7.33 1.39 1.80 1.68 1.50 2.17 2.57 .58 .27 3.60 4.71 1.04 .58 1.L2 .52 6.52 1.21 1.34 2.59 1.94 .52 6 2 2 4 3 1 4.34 8.33 15.63 5.17 18.00 11.45 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE 83. Federal cash receipts from public 90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement 91. Defense Dept. obligations total 92. Military contract awards in U.S 99. New orders, defense products... 114. Treasury bill rate L16, Corporate bond yields L17. Municipal bond yields L18. tfertgage yields See footnotes at end of table. C1) ((M Ci> ) 1 1 C) C1) ' .81' .95 .93 .6 8 .52 1.51 1.74 1.51 1.47 1.58 1.41 1.57 1.46 1.43 1.47 8.47 7.47 5.93 6.61 5.95 2.18 2.60 2.27 2.48 2.86 1.52 2.47 2.72 2.26 2.63 9.13 1.45 2.00 2.13 1.79 1.90 2.63 5.63 9.71 10.46 8.67 8.56 17*13 2.41 3.55 3.75 4.90 3.55 9.13 64 Appendixes Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continoed Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued T/c Monthly series I CI C T/c MOD for MOD span Average duration of run (ADR) CI 1 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE— Con. 81. Consumer prices ...»... *..... 96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries.... INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 123 . Canada » ..• .• 122 . United Kinpdom 121. OECD European countries, .. . 125. West Germany 126. Prance. 328. Japan 4.59 4.39 3.61 3.47 .15 .0 1 7.03 j 6.69 1.51 .57 1.11 .7 9 .13 1.69 1.34 3.95 3.58 .7 7 3.96 .43 4 4 1 5 1 .96 .85 .7 7 .4 8 .3 4 1.77 1.59 60 .0 1.52 5.95 1.66 70 .6 1.51 7.53 2.25 25.20 1.45 7.B8 1.87 13.89 .0 9 1.14 .86 1.42 1.36 1.44 1.70 .77 1.09 .83 1.18 1.20 1.41 1.07 .52 .7 4 .50 .69 .68 .4 7 1.23 1.48 2.32 1.66 1.71 1.76 1.91 .87 2 3 2 2 2 3 1 .2 7 .81 .89 .93 .89 .4 6 .87 3.47 2.40 3.47 2.86 3.21 2,70 2.91 2.12 1.87 2.40 2.14 2.08 1.02 1.52 I C T/c 1 T/c Quarterly series 11. 16. 18. 22. • cT NBER LEADING INDICATORS ffew capital appropriations, manufacturing.... 11.65 Corporate profits after taxes »... 6.28 Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing... 6.76 Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries 5.10 QCD for QCD span MCI) 2.75 2.97 60 .0 3.59 5,95 8*27 15.63 5,59 8.93 7,75 31.25 1 . 0 5.43 80 25.00 H.27 .2 31.00 6 4 2.91 17.86 Average duration of run (ADR) CI I C QCD 7.26 4.03 4.80 7.39 4.71 4.17 .98 .86 1.15 1 1 2 .98 .86 .56 2.47 2.47 2.47 1.45 1.35 1.40 4.67 5.25 5,23 2.47 2.47 2.73 3.76 3.78 .9 9 1 .9 9 3.23 1.40 5.25 3.23 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 50. GNP in 1954 dollars 49 . GNP in current dollars 57. Final sales ..«..«.«...«...... 1.29 1.54 1.30 .9 4 , .50 .38 10 .7 1.33 1.20 .6 4 .38 .31 1 1 1 .6 4 .38 .31 3.82 4.67 6.00 1.43 1.35 1.4^ 4.67 60 .0 84 .0 3.B2 4.07 60 .0 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 61. Business expenditures, new plant and equip... 68, Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP. . . . .. 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 3.15 .0 9 2.31 1.26 .9 4 1.57 2.64 .72 2.00 .48 .8 6 .9 7 1 1 1 .48 .68 .79 4.67 3.15 2.47 1.83 1.41 1.56 46 .7 5.86 4.67 4.67 3,15 2.47 11.61 8.60 97, Backlog of capital appropriations mfg» . . . . . . 5.89 8.33 5.67 i.56 7.58 6.55 5.54 1.10 .7 8 .28 2 1 1 .3 4 .7 8 .28 2.59 2,32 30 .0 1.33 1.38 1.50 40 .0 40 .0 6.00 43 .0 2,32 30 .0 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE NOTE: Measures are computed for a period of at least 10 years beginning with January 1953, except for series 7, 86, 87, and 116. The period begins with May 1959 for series 7 and with January 1960 for series 116. For series 86 and 87, the period ends with June 1962. x Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more. The following are brief definitions of the measures shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Fbper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957). "CIt1. is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series. "F is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical com ponent into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" la the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series, "MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical component for 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.* Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month «pans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change fwithout regard to sign) in *he irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it Indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular Appendixes 65 A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those 6f a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1L5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CI is 1.67 for series 6, Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries. This indicates that 1month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.54 for I and 8.33 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has bee,n successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 4.56 for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4 to 5 months. The increase in the ADR from 1.67 for CI to 4.56 for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, monthto-month changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical-trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-raonth changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not,. movements. Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months, all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown as "6". Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change ''without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. "T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1month spans_and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C_ratio is shown for the MCD period. For <parterly series, L/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans. "Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERlES-Continued Port 2.—Average Unit Changes i/c Monthly series NBER LEADING INDICATORS 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories... 20. Change in book value, mfrs,1 inventories of matls., supplies. 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods Unit of measure CI C I for MCD1 MCD span< Average duration of run (ADR) CI I C MCD Ann. rate, bil. dol... 3.50 3.37 .85 3,96 4 ' .4 9' 1.47 1.44 7.94 3.22 1.52 . . do. . . . . ... 1.45 .37 3,.93 5 .92 1.64 1.46 6.05 3.15 .9 4 .6 4 .6 1 2.93 4 .9 7 1.79 1.58 7.44 3.45 Bil. dol.... OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE 84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit.... Ann. rate, 5.46 .7 9 bil. dol... 5.60 104.23 82 ,.19 52.77 93. Free reserves Mil. dol .23 Percent .03 .23 85. Change in money supply 98. Change in money supply and time .4 0 .21 .21 ..do Ann. rate .26 1.19 bil. dol... 1.22 113. Change, consumer installment .85 .75 .34 ..do debt 88. Merchandise trade balance...... ,Mil. dol.... 58.96 56.60 17.50 NOTE: Measures are computed for the period, January 1953 to mid-1964, except for series 88 and 112. For series 88, the period ends with June 1962 and for series 112, the period begins with August 1959. 1 Where MCD is larger than "6", a 6-term moving average is used as the MCD curve. The measures in the above table are computed by an additive method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and T/c • 5.64 1.56 6.75 9 2 11 .9 7 .95 .82 1 1.54 2.03 1.45 1.47 1.52 1.48 6.09 10.31 6.18 3.07 3.17 3.32 5.29 7 .7 9 1.51 1.45 6.80 2.60 4.51 5 .3 9 1.47 1.47 6.22 2.48 2.19 3.23 3 3 .78 .i 9 1.71 1.82 1.55 1.61 9.00 11.30 3.24 2.64 negative data. Thus, "CI1^ is the average month-to-month change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as th£ series itself. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component, whicn is determined by subtracting the cyclical component frotn the seasonally adjusted series. All other measures shown above have the same meaning as in part 1. 66 Appendixes Appendix D.-CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBEf (NOVEMBER 1963 TO DECEMBER 1964) 1<?63 19<S4 Series Nov. Dec. 4. Temporary layoff, all industries. 86,7 5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance. . . 103.1 . 13. New business incorporations1 82.3 14. Liabilities of business failures. 102.5 10. Large business failures 94.3 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing 18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg.2. 30. Nonagri. placements, all Indus.1. 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 55* Wholesale prices, exeept farm 101.1 100.8 93.1 95.1 Jan. Feb. June July 86.6 76.7 .60 98,3 1 4 . 82.4 90.7 95.9 144.5 107.7 98.9 133.7 97.5 78.5 85.7 142.1 116.3 110.3 111.7 84.0 109.5 94.4 93.8 83.0 82.9 96.3 uo.o 106.9 102.9 106.7 101.7 103.5 114.6 103.3 94.4 112.8 U5.0 109.1 99.7 104.7 93.9 100.2 103.1 101.9 96.7 109.6 107.4 109.3 109-1 106.3 102.3 102.3 100.6 99.9 99.9 99-9 100.0 100.0 98.5 91.9 96.2 93.7 106.4 69.3 112.1 126.6 92.8 102.7 85.8 91. 92. 112. 128. D©f©ngo Dept. ©blip. , total Military contract awards in U.S.. Change, business loans3 . . . . . ..... Japan, index of industrial production 104.7 108.2 82.7 87.6 85.5 90.5 124.9 95.9 78.7 92.5 91.0 90.3 89.0 99.0 92.0 93.5 86.6 95 •$ 103.0 82.1 132.6 94.3 ;L34.« 102.^ 77. C 85.1 97.7 98.0 99.4 100.0 100.3 100.8 102.3 96.2 99.1 101.7 103.3 101.1 97. 1 97.6 * . . 106.2 100.8 . . . . . . . .94.7 .. . . * . .. , 81.1 82.6 77.4 92.0 103.6 107.4 110.8 105.0 111,0 124,. 4 112.6 93.3 B2.2 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.0 100.0 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 81. Index of consumer prices 82. Federal cash payments to public.. 83. Federal cash receipts from pub... 90. Defense Department obligations — Aug. Sopt . Oct. Nov. Doe, Mar. Apr. May 90.3 99.6 92.2 8^.8 94.5 91.5 100.8 101.7 100.2 99.0 102.0 99.4 99.9 99.0 79.0 85.7 102.5 79.7 91.6 93.7 92.1 95.1 96. (I 96.7 92.8 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 100.1 100.0 99.0 97.6 103.9 99.8 99.9 100.2 103.7 102.9 96.6 121.6 149.8 48.9 100.8 100.0 115.0 115.1 97 . 9 96.9 100.2 100.2 93.8 105.7 123.5 46.1 72.3 2 7 0 89. 6 89.2 97.1 95.8 0. £8.9 100. a 102.4 100.2 99.1 102.9 98. S 102.0 :io6.ij 92.9 102.7 85.7 108.0 94.6 86.2 147.1 101.1 94.3 98.1 103.6 90.3 99.* 83.3 124.8 84.0 89.6 197.9 69.9 88.0 99.0 93.9 84.8 94.1 99.4 100.4 100.7 100.1 99.7 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.8 100,9 1,01.8 94.7 100.9 108.4 100.3 100.5 99.4 99.1 96.8 99.1 100 . 3 99.0 102. C Those data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research^ Inc. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. ^-Factors are a combination of seasonal and trading-day factors, Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter. 3 Faetors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed. Appendixes 67 Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961 Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough Contractions J Reference peak to reference trough 41. Employees in nonagri. establishments 4,7. Index of industrial production 50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)1 49- GNP in current dollars (Q)1 43- Unemployment rate 51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Retail sonal debits sales outside income NYC Change Rate at Rate at in rate, peaktrough peak to trough 2 4.0 2 2 0.0 11.2 •a!1.9 ?5'5 2 4.1 25.4 20.0 1.1 3.8 2.6 4.2 5.2 3.3 7.9 6.1 7.4 6.9 +3.4 3.5 7.2 -1.8 +3.6 3.9 7.6 -1.2 +3.4 4.0 7.2 Jan . 1920-July 1921 May 1923- July 1924 Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927 Aug. 1929-Mar. 1933 May 1937- June 1938 NA NA NA -31.6-10.4 -31.6 -18.0 -5.9 -51.8 -31.7 NA -0.3 +2.3 -28.0 -8.9 -19.7 -2.3 +0.4 -49.6 -11.9 -22.5 -3.1 +8.7 -61.9 -16.5 -21.9 0.0 +0.9 -50.8 -10.9 0.0 0.0 -47.4 -18.5 +7.9 2+2.3 2+2.2 +25.4 +8.8 Feb. 1945-Oct. 19454 Nov 1948-Oct. 1949 July 1953-Aug 1954s July 1957-Apr. 1958 May 1960-Feb. 1961 Median:6 -7.8 -5.1 -3.4 -4.1 -1.9 -31.4 -8.5 -9.1 -14.1 -5.9 NA -1.4 -3.0 -3.8 -1.8 -10.9 -3.3 -1.8 -2.5 -0.5 -1.0 -4.0 +1.6 -3.1 +2.4 -4.0 -4.3 -0.2 -0.3 +1.0 +9.9 0.0 -0.7 -1.6 -1.9 +2.2 +4.1 +3.5 +3.2 +1.7 -5.7 -16.0 -2.4 -2.9 -3.1 -2.2 -1.2 -6.5 -16.0 -2.3 -2.9 -3.6 -2.3 -3.8 -8.8 -2.4 -2.2 -0.8 -0.2 Excluding postwar contractions 4 contractions since 1948 - . ; 6 2 Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak Expansions: Reference trough to reference peak 41 Employees in nonagri. establishments 47. Index of industrial production 50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)1 49 GNP in current dollars (Q)1 3.2 2 1.9 3 3 43. Unemployment rate 51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Re^ sonal tail debits outside income sales NYC Change in rate, Rate at Rate at trough peak trough to peak 2 -8.7 2 2 1921-May 1923 1924-Oct. 1926 1927-Aug. 1929 1933-May 1937 1938-Feb. 1945* NA NA NA +40.2 +45.9 +64.2 +30.4 +24.1 +119.9 +183.3 NA +12.4 +12.6 +42.1 NA +25.1 +14.7 +13.3 +73.9 +169.6 +23.5 +18.9 +20.4 +78.4 +131*7 +29.6 +13.2 +12.2 +76.3 +157.3 +13.3 +8.8 +2.7 +85.6 +102.0 -3.6 2 -0.9 -14.2 -18.9 11.9 2 5.5 2 4.1 25.4 20.0 Oct. 1945-Nov. 1948.. .. Oct. 1949-July 1953s Aug. 1954-July 1957 Apr. 1958-May I960 Median:6 +17.2 +17.7 +8.9 +7.2 +21.9 +50.0 +19.7 +25.2 +3.3 +27.4 +13.5 +11.9 +34.9 +43.5 +23.8 +15.3 +51.5 +49.3 +28.6 +21.2 +28.5 +41.5 +22.8 +13.6 +59.7 +26.3 +20.0 +10.8 -K). 3 -5.3 -1.9 -2.2 3.3 7.9 6.1 7.4 +17.4 +35.2 +12.8 +27.9 +33.8 +27.0 +19.9 -3.7 7.1 3.3 +13.0 +26.6 +12..'5 +21.4 +24.4 +21.6 +14 J 7 -2.6 6.3 3.7 +13.0 +23.6 +12.7 +29.4 +39.0 +25.6 +23.2 -2.0 6.8 3.9 July July Nov. Mar. June Excluding wartime expansions 4 expansions since 1945 "3-2 2 1.9 2 3 ' 3.2 11.2 1.1 3 3.6 2.6 4.2 5.2 For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 54), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C. •'•The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); id quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER), vol. 1, p. 670. 2 Based on average for the calendar year. , 3 Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used. 4 World War II contraction or expansion period. 5 Korean War contraction or expansion period. 6 The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Appendixes 68 Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index. Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5. Data are seasonally adjusted. Year Jan. Feb. 1 Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. T Nov. 1 Dec. 40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (Percent) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 3.4 3.0 2.3 2.6 4.0 4-1 3.3 3.0 2.2 2.4 4.6 4-0 2.9 2.9 2.2 2.2 5.0 3.7 3.5 3.3 2.3 2.6 5.6 3.2 3.3 2.5 2.4 2.6 5.7 3.2 3.4 2.0 2.5 2.6 5.8 3.3 3.8 2.4' 2.3 2,7 5.8 3.1 3.6 2.4 2.3 2.7 5.6 3.4 3.9 2.2 2.3 3.1 5.3 3.7 3.8 2.3 2.3 3.2 5.0 3.8 4-4 3.'6 2.2 2.5 3.5 4.6 4.2 4.4 2.0 2,5 3.7 4.6 3.4 4.3 41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural establishments (Thous.) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 44,663 44,636 43,480 47,289 48,283 * 50,104 49,409 44,542 44,466 43,207 47,533 48,463 50,259 49,272 44,627 44,253 43,869 47,733 48,488 50,332 49,127 44,370 44,071 44,292 47,883 48,472 50,387 49,012 44,657 43,855 44,619 47,840 48,543 50,411 48,867 44,945 43,642 45,020 47,972 48,161 50,404 48,789 45,H6 43,479 45,405 47,977 48,013 50,416 48,735 45,029 43,504 46,062 47,823 48,707 50,343 48,702 45,131 43,654 46,282 47,759 49,156 50,260 48,801 45,095 42,821 46,540 47,820 49,456 50,142 48,839 45,109 43,180 46,665 4B,063 49,728 49,824 49,112 45,059 43,528 46,780 48,191 49,995 49,634 49,264 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 49,439 51,932 52,836 52,057 52,502 54,331 49,543 52,119 53,062 51,464 52,647 54,527 49,886 52,165 53,114 51,202 52,860 54,499 50,101 52,313 53,059 50,879 53,353 54,728 50,435 52,417 53,048 50,870 53,565 54,555 50,715 52,485 52,969 50,924 53,737 54,449 50,870 51,837 53,030 51,038 53,799 54,395 50,960 52,474 53,016 51,191 53,325 54,352 51,172 52,497 52,847 51,494 53,408 54,248 51,324 52,698 52,719 51,467 53,354 54,160 51,508 52,734 52, 54^ 51,948 53,642 54,015 51,715 52,884 52,330 52,087 54,190 53,752 42, Total nonagri cultural employment, labor force survey (Thous.) 1948. 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 50,801 51,005 53,298 53,791 55,449 54,504 50,533 51,175 53,379 53,983 55,902 54,638 50,483 51,076 54,042 53,920 56,087 54,352 51,127 50,186 51,784 53,629 53,930 55,546 54,574 50,936 49,805 51,797 53,911 54,335 55,599 54,210 51,668 49,804 52,262 53,634 54,199 55,589 54,134 51,850 49,502 52,248 54,059 54,106 55,602 53,889 51,446 50,235 53,085 53,726 54,076 55,291 54,246 51,195 50,775 53,108 53,706 54,471 55,174 54,284 51,268 50,919 53,026 53,858 54,232 55,255 54,444 51,243 50,948 53,07? 53,609 54,730 54,B43 54,B62 51,121 50,890 53,243 53,B64 55,083 54,436 54,658 1955 1956., 1957 1958 1959 I960 55,059 57,735 58,435 58,106 59,030 60,566 55,251 57,570 58,748 57,958 58,910 60,799 55,158 57,736 59,086 57,881 59,280 60,359 55,670 57,857 58,901 57,740 59,572 61,173 55,772 58,091 58,713 57,901 59,635 61,337 56,060 58,113 58,858 57,917 59,845 61,372 56,548 58,101 58,822 57,882 60,099 61,038 56,769 58,321 58,728 57,999 60,063 61,018 56,639 58,366 59,110 58,352 60,013 61,074 56,829 58,460 58,815 58,480 60,261 60,809 57,191 58,445 58,634 58,^84 59,715 61,213 57,550 •58,717 58,572 ^8, 670 60,549 60,740 ! 49. Gross national product in current dollars (Annual rate, bil. 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 249.5 259.8 265.8 317.8 341.0 364.5 360.0 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 384.3 410.6 438.5 432.9 472.0 500.4 ... ... .•. *.• •.* 257.7 256.4 274.4 326.4 341.3 368.8 358.9 393.0 415.0 442.1 437.2 487.8 504.1 264.0 258.8 293.2 323-8 347.0 367.1 362.0 .•. ... 403.4 421.0 448.3 447.0 482.7 503.5 dol.) ... ... ... ... 265.9 257.0 304-3 338.1 358.6 361.0 370.8 408,9 430.0 442,3 460.6 488.5 502.1 **. ..* .. • Appendixes 69 Appendix F.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the .index. Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5* Data are seasonally adjusted. ! Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July 1 Aug. Sept. Oct. Dec. Nov. 50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Annual rate, Ml. dol.) 1948....... 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 ... 286.4 291.5 302.7 334.0 349-6 368.9 360.4 ... .. • 382.2 398.8 409.6 393.0 421.7 439-9 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 295.6 295-6 325-6 346.3 352-6 370.2 362.1 293-3 290.3 312.0 340.0 349.3 373-2 359.5 389-5 398.9 410 ,,0 395-2 434,0 442,1 ... ... ! ""1 397-5 400.2 411.0 402.9 427-6 440.2 * •. 297.3 293.0 331.6 346.9 362.3 363.9 370.1 401.1 405.5 403.8 413.6 431.1 437*1 ... 51. Bank debits outside New York City— 343 centers (Annual rate, bil. dol.) 194.8 1949 1950....... 1951 1952 1953 1954 777-8 769-3 747-7 770.3 760.1 772.0 762.8 765.1 812.0 792.2 789-3 771-9 1,006.4 981.8 1,008.9 1,001.5 1,008.2 1,036.0 1,011,1 1,022.0 1,105.1 1,097-0 1,125.1 1,128.8 1,114.9 1,166.3 1,143.6 1,137.8 1955 1956. ...... 1957 1958 1959.. I960 1,190.0 1,359.0 1,453-9 1,459-5 1,577-3 1,692.2 1,220.1 1,350.7 1,467-9 1,413-7 1,609.4 1,765-4 1,244.2 1,346.6 1,460.3 1,432.7* 1,627.7 1,715-2 1,244.8 1,374-7 1,454.7 1,432.1 1,656.1 1,731.2 776.6 794.0 784.2 797.2 803.9 757.0 757.0 757.7 758.5 751.5 936.8 866.5 837-3 884.7 949.0 1,000.6 997.6 972.6 993.3 990.7 1,034.3- 1,030.6 1,047.4 1,035-4 1,059.3 1,123-3 1,130.5 1,129-3 1,129.8 1,138.0 1,129.5 1,143.7 1,145.0 1,150.8 1,147-9 1 1,281.7 1,280.9 1,281.3 1,300.0 1,313.9 1,375-2 1,378.0 .1,396.8 1,396.0 1,371-8 1,484.3 1,447.9 1,485.6 1,495-9 1,490.5 1,426.6 1,469.6 1,465.1 1,468.7 1,524.9 1,638.3 1,639.2 1,685.6 1,658.8 1,6544 1,731.2 1,739-0 1,714.0 1,771-8 1,766.5 52. Personal income (Annual rate, bil. 794.1 759-2 931-3 1,007.2 1,095-0 1,127.7 1,141.3 795-0 754.6 923-5 1,026.7 1,062.2 1,122.3 1,182.7 775.7 776.4 961.4 1,005.2 1,106.2 1,120.7 1,195.2 1,318-7 1,419.8 1,469.2 1,543.9 1,668.0 1,738.0 1,326.4 1,434.0 1,471.2 1,522,7 1,692.9 1,758.9 1,334.0 1,420.5 1,465.4 1,586.2 1,699.6 1,742,3 dol.) 194.8 194.9 1950 1951 IQ*;? 1953 1954, 201.8 209*4 216.6 246.0 263-7 283-7 287O 201.1 208.8 219.2 248.3 267.2 285.0 287.9 205.2 209.5 224.9 250.1 267.3 287.6 286.9 207-3 210.0 220.3 253-3 267.7 287.5 287.0 208.6 209.2 221.3 255-3 269.8 288.4 287.4 212.9 207.5 223.0 257.1 271.5 290.2 288.3 213-3 205.3 226.3 256.6 270.5 290.1 288.3 215.4 207.4 231.2 259-7 276.9 289.5 289.4 215. 8 208.9 234.8 259-7 279-i4 289.19 291.4 216.1 205.0 236.7 263.4 280,5 290.5 291.5 214.3 207.8 238.7 264.3 279-6 289.2 294-5 212.9 211.0 248.2 265.1 281.6 289.2 296.7 1955 1956 1957. ...... 1958 1959 1960 296.6 322.0 343.0 353-3 372.1 395-9 298.1 323.7 345.5 352.1 374.7 395-6 300.8 325-7 347.0 353-7 378.4 395-9 305.1 329.3 348.6 354.2 382.3 400.8 308.1 330.6 351-5 355-8 384.8 402.3 309.4 332.9 354.0 358.0 387.0 403.0 312.8 332.2 355O 364.U387.4 402-7 313.1 336.2 356.2 363.8 384.3 403-5 315.6 337.8 355 J4 365-5 384.9 404.4 316.7 340.2 354.7 366.0 385.4 405.2 319-6 341.0 354.6 369-6 389-7 404.5 322,7 342.0 352.8 368.9 395-5 403.2 55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other ttisin farm products and foods (1957-59=100) 194.8 19/9 1950 1951 1952 ia<53 1954 80.0 82.2 78.8 91.6 90.0 89.1 90.3 79-8 81.6 79-0 92.0 89.8 89.1 90.2 80.0 81.4 79-3 92.4 89.8 89.6 90.2 80.6 80.7 79.7 92.7 89.7 89.5 90.4 81.0 80.0 80.6 92.6 89-5 90.0 90.6 81.7 79-7 81.4 92.4 89-3 90.4 90.6 82.3 79.^ 82.5 91.9 89.2 91-0 90.6 82.9 79.2 83.9 91.0 89-3 90.7 90.3 83.1 79*0 85.5 9016 89-3 90.5 90.2 83.1 78.9 86.9 90.4 89.1 90.4 90.3 83.1 78.8 87.8 90.2 89.0 90.3 90.6 82.8 78.7 89-7 90.2 89.0 90.3 90.6 1955 1956 1957 1Q58 1959 1960 90.8 94.8 98.6 99-3 100.4 101.5 91.2 95-0 98.9 99.2 100.8 101.4 91.3 95-5 98.9 99.2 101.0 101.4 91.4 95-9 99.0 99-1 101.2 101,4 sa.4 96.3 99-1 99.1 101.5 101.2 91-7 96.4 99.3 99-3 101.4 101.3 92.4 96.3 99.6 99-4 101-5 101.3 92.8 96.7 99.5 99-6 101.4 101.3 97-1 99-5 99-7 101.5 1011.1 931.5 93.9 97.5 99-4 99-9 101.5 101.2 94.2 98.0 99-3 94.5 98.3 99*4 100.3 101.5 101.0 100.1 101.5 101.1 Appendixes 70 Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERlES-Continued Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shovm here previously or have be< revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the inde: Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5. Data are seasonally adjusted except series 67. Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun,e July Sept. Aug. Oct. Nov. Dec. 261.6 262.3 289.3 333.2 353.3 365.6 370.0 ... 57. Final sales— series 49 minus series 21 (Annual rate, bil. dol.) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 246.2 259.8 263.3 307.3 335.9 361.9 362.7 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 379.8 404.4 436.2 438.4 465.5 491.1 ... 252.6 261.7 269.5 311.2 343.5 365.7 361.5 ... ... 386.9 410.5 439.4 441.2 476.3 499.9 258.0 260.4 288.2 323.6 342.7 366.4 364.2 ... ... ... ... 397.8 417.1 445.8 448.6 481.5 500.7 402.1 426.0 443.5 457.3 481.4 504.4 66. Consumer installment debt (Mil. dol.) a, 618 194.8 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 6,578 8,671 11,443 14,439 15,037 19,564 22,562 6,799 8,785 11,730 14,505 15,207 20,004 22,575 7,075 8,932 11,993 14,563 15,316 20,546 22,478 7,341 9,151 12,258 14,522 15,548 20,945 22,506 7,539 9,411 12,569 14,483 16,013 21,279 22,459 7,708 9,634 12,961 H,43£ 16,587 21,515 22,481 7,920 9,837 13,491 14,314 16,957 21,823 22,543 8,118 10,067 13,864 14,464 17,172 22,002 22,567 8,328 10,307 14,228 14,589 17,495 22,161 22,636 8,392 10,631 14,372 14,663 18,031 22,351 22,757 B, 491 10,935 14,302 14,806 18,463 22,555 22,916 11,212 14,335 14,916 19,025 22,627 23,190 15.... 95... 1956 1957 1958....... 1959 I960 23,512 28,732 31,451 33,446 33,494 38,960 23,930 29,120 31,712 33,312 33,922 39,445 24,501 29,457 31,932 33,145 34,283 39,874 25,021 29,759 32,095 33,033 34,752 40,346 25,507 29,977 32,325 32,932 35,203 40,657 26,032 30,157 32,543 32,832 35,690 40,982 26,477 30,311 32,765 32,798 36,214 41,267 26,966 30,552 32,946 32,766 36,832 41,503 27,477 30,664 33,090 32,707 37,415 41,788 27,767 30,839 33,207 32,735 37,937 a, 888 28,066 31,107 33,341 32,816 3B,290 42,036 28,420 31,279 33,392 33,092 38,§7B 42,139 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Percent) 14.... 98... 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 ... 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 2.40 2.70 2.60 3.02 3.45 3.54 3.72 3.54 3.93 4.38 4.49 4.51 5.34 .. . 2.47 2.74 2.68 3.07 3.51 3.73 3.60 ... 3.56 4H . 4.40 4.17 4.87 5.35 .. . 2.60 2.63 2.63 3.06 3.49 3.74 3.56 ... •• ... 3.77 4.35 4.83 4.21 5.27 4.97 2.64 2.65 2.84 3.27 3.51 3.76 3.55 ... 3.93 4.3B 4.85 4.50 5.36 4.99 81. Index of consumer prices (1957-59=100) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 82.4 83.6 81.9 88.4 92.1 92.7 93.9 82.3 83.3 82.3 90.1 92.1 92.8 94.0 82.0 83.3 82.3 90.2 92.0 93.0 93.9 83.0 83.5 82.5 90.3 92.4 93.0 93.8 83*7 83.2 82.8 90.6 92.3 93.1 93.9 84.3 83.3 83.2 90.5 92.5 93.3 93.8 85.2 82.8 83.9 90.4 92.9 93.3 93.6 85.3 82.7 84.3 90.3 93.0 93.5 93.5 84.8 82.7 84.7 90.7 92.8 93.7 93.3 84.6 82.4 85.3 91.1 92.9 93.9 93.1 84.1 82.5 85.7 91.5 92.9 93.5 93.3 83.7 82.1 87.0 92.0 92.9 93.6 93.3 1955. 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 93.3 93.6 96.5 99.8 101.0 102.3 93.4 93.6 96.9 100.0 101.0 102.5 93.5 93.7 97.0 100.6 100.9 102.6 93.4 93.8 97.3 100.7 101.0 102.9 93.2 94.2 97.6 100.8 101.2 103.0 93.1 94.6 97.9 100.7 101.4 103.1 93.2 95.0 98.1 100.7 101.6 103.1 93.2 95.1 98.5 100.7 101.7 103.3 93.5 95.3 98.6 100.8 101.9 103.2 93.5 95.8 98.7 100.8 102.2 103.5 93.6 95.9 99.0 100.9 102.2 103.6 93.6 96.4 99.3 100.9 102.3 103.8 Index SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDEXES Series number1 1 (Page numbers) Charts 1 2 3 Appendixes Tables 4 5 1 2 3 4 6 5 7 8 9 A B C D F2 E G Bage Issue Bage Issue 1... 2... 3... 4... 5... 6... 7... 9... 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 LO... 11... 12*.. 13... 14... 15... 16... 17... 18... L9... 9 9 10 10 10 10 20... 21... 22... 23... 24... 25... 26... 29... 55 50 .. •. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .• .. .. .. .. .• .. .. .. 55 . . . . 50 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 11 11 11 11 . . ** .• .. .* .. .. .• .. •• .. .. .. .. .. 55 .. 56 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 12 12 1 1 12 9 12 12 9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. •. .• •. .. .. . . 51 56 55 . . 50 . * . . •. .. 53 .. 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 25 24 24 25 22 25 25 23 22 25 25 25 .. .. .. 51 .. .. .. 51 .. 51 .. .. .. .• .• 30... 31... 32... 37... 8 12 12 12 .. .. .. .. . . . . . . .. . . .« . . . . .. .. .. .. 6 6 6 6 40... 41... 42... 43... 45... 46... 47... 49... 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 .. *• . .• .. .. .• .. .. 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 50... 51... 52... 53... 54... 55... 57... 58... 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 .. .. . . . . 53 . . . . 53 .. .• .. 52 . • . • 52 .. .. 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 61... 16 62... 16 64... 16 65... 16 66... 16 67... 16 68,.. 16 •. .. .. .. .. .. ». . . •. .. 57 . . 52 .. .• 52 57 .• .. .. .. .• .. . . 53 57 . . 53 .. 54 . . 54 54 .. .. .* • . 54 .. *. 56 56 •. 57 .. .. .. .. .. ... .* 1 .. . . . . . . 58 . . 58 . . 58 •. . . .. •. . 0 . . .. 59 59 59 .. •. <» . . 62 .. .. .. .. 63 63 63 i . • 63 66 66 63 . . . . 63 .. •. 63 .• . . 62 63 63 64 .. .. *. . . 58 . . 58 41 . .. 59 59 eo 4 . .. .• . . . . . . 58 . * 58 59 59 (0 •• .. '• . . 58 59 to .* ». . . 62 63 •• . . 63 63 64 63 . . 62 64' 63 • . 62 65 1-64 2-64 5-64 11-63 7-63 5-64 6-64 65 63 66 66 66 64 68 64 66 5-64 6-64 8-63 11-63 3-64 6-64 6-63 6-64 4-64 .. 6-64 6-64 6-64 1-64 12-63 12-63 6-64 6-64 *. .. 10-63 6-64 3-64 6-63 .. .. 8-64 8-64 8-64 2-64 3-64 2-64 .. 8-64 .. .. .. .. .. •. .. .. .. *• .. 8-64 8-64 8-64 10-63 10-63 8-64 8-64 4-64 .. .. .. .. •• *. 66 66 66 .. 66 66 .. .. .. .. .. .* .. . . . . 58 58 •• . . •• .. .. . • .• . . . . •• . . . . •. .« .. .. 66 .. .. 66 . . 66 65 66 68 63, 63 63 63 63 63 63 64 .. .. .• .. .. *. .. .. .. 67 64 63 63 63 6? 63 64 .. .. .. •. .. 66 .. 67 67 67 69 69 69 66 67 66 . . 69 70 66 . . 64 * . 63 . . . . 63 63 . . . . 63 . . 64 64 .. 66 .. .. .. •. .. 65 6-64 . . 68 6-63 . . 66 6-64 66 6-64 . . 70 8-64 . • 70 8-64 . . 66 4-64 *• 62 59 60 •• 62 '• .. 58 59 60 .• 62 . • • . 58 . . 58 59 59 60 60 62 . . 62 . . 58 . . 58 . . 58 59 59 59 60 »• 60 60 . . 58 . . 58 59 59 ro ** . . • 62 .. 62 . . 62 . . 62 .. .. . . 58 . . 58 . . 58 59 59 59 .. . * 58 . . 58 59 59 .. .. .. .. •. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. 9-) 64 63 63 65 63 63 • . 62 . . 62 . . 58 . . .. .. 59 60 « 64 64 • . 65 . . 66 66 . . 66 65 63 " . . .. 58 59 59 . . . . •. . . 2 .. .. .. .. .. .• .. .. .. .. 66 . . 66 65 . . 66 66 65 . * 63 63 65i 63 63i . . See back cover for series titles and sources* .. €0 •• . • 58 . . 58 . . 58 . . 59 59 59 68 68 68 67 66 . . 66 66 67 •. 67 68 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. •. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. •• .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . •• .. Before rfcy 196*, this appendix was "<?'. 71 72 Index SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDEXES-Continued (Page numbers) 31 &1 $a Charts 1 2 3 4 Tables 5 1 2 3 4 Appendixes 6 5 7 8 9 A B C D F2 E 0 Page Issue Page Issue 81... 20 17 82... 83... 17 84... 17 85... 18 86... 20 87... 20 88... 20 39... 20 90... 91... 92... 93... 94... 95... 96... 97... 98... 99... 17 17 17 18 20 17 20 20 18 17 1.10.. 111.. 112.. 113.. 114.. 115.. 116.. 117.. 118.. 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 121.. 21 122.. 21 123.. 21 125.. 21 126.. 21 127.. 21 U>8.. 21 .. .. ** .. .. .. •. .. .. .. .. .* .• .. *. .. *. .• .. *. .* .. .. .. .. .* .. .. •* .. .. .. .• .. .. .. .. .. •. *. •. •* .• .* .. •• •* •• ** •• *. •• .. .. .. .* .. .. •• .. •• .* *. •. .. .. .. .* D:L... 35 . . 35 35 Dai.. . • 35 D19. . • • 35 35 K!3.. * • D34.. • . 35 D4i.. 04-7.. 1X8.. D54.. D58.. D61.. •. .* .. *. •* 36 36 .• 36 36 *. .• .• •* .. *. *. *• .• .* .• .. •. • •• .• .• •* .* .. 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 32 29 29 29 30 32 32 32 32 64 63 63 65 65 64 64 65 66 66 66 .. .* .. 70 8-64 .. .* .• ~ ». *. ** 73 7-64 . It •. 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 29 29 29 30 32 29 32 32 30 29 63 63 63 65 64 66 66 66 .. .. •. .. .. ** .. •. •. 66 6-64 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 •• *. •. 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 .. •* 64 64 65 63 - , 37 37 40 40 37 40 40 37 l See back cover for series titles and sources* 64 64 65 65 63 63 63 63 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 38 39 38 38 39 39 39 D!5... D6... D35.. D36.. .. - *. •* .. A * . * . . . . . . 73 7-64 . • 66 6-64 .* 66 *. .. •. 66 *» . . 71 7-64 . . 71 7-64 • . 71 7-64 71 7-64 •* . . 71 7-64 • . 72 7-64 • . 72 7-64 * . 72 7-64 . • 72 7-64 73 73 73 73 74 74 74 74 74 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 •. *. *. ** •• •* 66 5-64 . . 45 . • 42 66 5-64 .• *« 43 44 66 5-64 .* .. *. •. 41 41 •• • .. 41 ** •* 41 46 47 48 49 2 Before May 1964, this appendix was "G", *. TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order* "M" indicates monthly series and"Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators. 30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 30. Nonagriculturol placements, all industries (M).—Department of *1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).— Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 31. Chang a m book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, 4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, alt industries (M).— Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census Laboi, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census total (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).-- Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment 37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials(M). -National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Elrnr ployment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *9, Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).«De pertinent of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F, W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing cor- *12. 13. *14. 15. *16. porations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total Net change in the business population, operating businesses (EOQ).~Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics Number ofnew business incorporations (M).—Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Number of business failures with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to Index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M). —Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing cor- porations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 22. Ratio of profits(after taxes) to income originating, corporate, a l l industries (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics *23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment 24* Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 25. Change In manufacturers* unfilled orders, durable goods Indus* tries {EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commit- ments 60 clays or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 40. Unempbyment rate, married males, spouse present (M).-Departmant of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *43. Unemployment rate, total (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National *47. *49. *50. *51. *52 53. *54. *55. 57. Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Gross notional product in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Of).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Personal income (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Depaitment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics Soles of iretoil stores (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Index of wholesale prices, a)I commodities, other than farm products and foods (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of merce, Office of Business Economics 7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS Ml. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).— Deparement of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and the Securities and Exchange Commission *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and salaries;) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *64. Book value of manufacturers* inventories, all manufacturing in* dustrlesflEOM)-—Departmentof Commerce, Bureau of the Census 65* Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing Industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure *67- Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national product (ratto of compensation of employees In corporate enter* prises to value of corporate product In 1954 dollar*) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National Income Division Continued on reverse PCNALTY PON PRIVATE UM TO AVOID PAYMENT OF POrTAOt, »XK> IODNM UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, O. C. OFFICIAL BUSINESS FIRST CLASS MAIL TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. 28 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE 81, Index of consumer prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 82* Federal cash payments to the public (M).—Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment. 83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).-Treasury Depart- ment, Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment. 84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).—Treasury Department, Bu- reau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment. 112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).—Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 113* Net change In consumer Installment debt (EOM).— Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 114. Discount rate on new Issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M),» Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 115* Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).*Treasury no seasonal adjustment Department, 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).-Fiist National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The Bond Buyer, no seasonal adjustment 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-Fetleral Housing administration; no seasonal adjustment 7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 85. Percent chonge in total U.S. money supply (demand deposit? plus currency) (M).-- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Depart- ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 87. General imports, total (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).--De- partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 121, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Euro- pean Countries, index of Industrial production (M).--Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production Statistical Office (London) 123* Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa) 125. West Germany, Index of Industrial production (M).»Deutsch( Bundesbank (Frankfurt) 89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 126. 91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).-Department of De- fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).-De- partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census France, Index of industrial production (M).—Statistical Office (Paris) 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).--Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (M)."CentraJ 127. Italy, Index of Industrial production (M).--Organization for Eco- nomic Cooperation and Development 1.3. Japan, Index of industrial production (M).-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment by compiler and Bureau of the Census ... United States, Index of Industrial production (M).--See series 47. 93. Free reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings) (M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation 95. Surplus or deficit. Federal income and product account (Q).--De- partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 96* Manufacturers* unfilled orders, durable goods Industries (EOM).~ Deoartment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total DIFFUSION INDEXES The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the snme number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above for Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sources foe other diffusion indexes are as follows: D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank 98. Percent chonge in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).— Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 99. New orders, defense products (M).—Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census 110. Total funds raised by private nonffnancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 111. Gross retained earnings of nonflnanclal corporations (Q).-- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System D35. D36. D48. D58. of New York; no seasonal adjustment ofseriestomponents. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Net soles, total manufactures (QJ.--lXin and Brad ureel, Inc.: no seasonal adjustment New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Pun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment Freight corloadings (Q).—Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--Departmen: of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by bureau of the Census