Full text of Business Conditions Digest : August 1964
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AUGUST 1964
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH JULY
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
Developments
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. Ross Eckler, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
AUGUST 1964
Chief Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN
DATA THROUGH JULY
This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis
Division under the direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief, and Samuel
L. Brown, Assistant Chief. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are-
Series ESI No. 64-8
Feliks Tamm-Computation of business cycle measures,
Allan H. Youngj-Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Eugene Rossidivito-Specifications for computer processing,
Betty Tunstall-Collection and compilation of basic data.
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Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, hajs been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis . It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide datafor analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 30 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes . Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies. Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible.
Publication is scheduled for around the 22nd of the month
following the month of data.
1
New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made from
time to time to reflect the change from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation to other series,
changes in components of indexes, etc.
These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Series 68, index of labor co$t per dollar of
real corporate gross national product, has been
revised for the period 1961 to date + This change
reflects the annual revisions in national income
accounts made by the Office of Business Economics.
2. Appendix F includes historical data for series 40, 41, 42, 49, 50, 51, 52, 55^ 57, 66, 67,
and 81.
The September issue of Business Cycle Developments is scheduled for release on September 23.
ii
Contents
Page
i
ii
Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 , 2 , and 3
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
4
5
.
Basic Data
Table 1.—Basic Data and Current Changes for Business Cycle Series: 4 Most
Recent Months
.
Chart 1. —Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present ..
Table 2.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January 1961 to Present
6
8
22
Analytical Measures
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent
Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks * ...
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present
,
Chart 3. —Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes for 11 Majoj; Economic Activities: January 1961
to Present
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing
Activities: January 1961 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components and Percent of Series
Rising: July 1963 to Present
34
35
37
38
41
42
Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months
After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent
Expansions
Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change From Specific
Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough
Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions..
50
55
58
59
60
Appendixes
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and
Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. —Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators.
Appendix C.—Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series.
i
Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1963 to December
1964)
Appendix E.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961
Appendix F. —Historical Data for Selected Series
61
62
63
66
67
68
Index
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes
71
iii
Technical Papers
and
Background Materials
To aid users of Business Cycle Developments, technical papers dealing with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this report from time
to time. The following papers have been included as part of this program:
No. 1. —Summary Description of the X-9 and X - l Q Versions of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix £ in the September
1963 issue) . A new version of this program is scheduled to be released in
the fall. Announcement will be made at that time.
No. 2. —Business Cycle Indicators — The Known and the Unknown by Julius Shiskin
(published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue). This paper explains
what is known about business cycle indicators, the problems of using them,
and the research needed to improve their usefulness. It was presented at
the 34th session of the International Statistical Institute in Ottawa, Canada,
on August 24, 1963.
No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H. Young (published in
May 1964 issue) . This paper is a summary of the technique used at the
Census Bureau to adjust monthly series for variations arising from the
number of trading or working days in the month. This technique will be included in a new variant of the Census Method II seasonal-adjustment program ( X - l l ) to be released later this year.
No. 4. — Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and
Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964 issue).
This paper describes eight BCD series (6, 20> 24, 25, 64, 65, 96, and 99)
which are compiled and seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census,
briefly explains their typical business cycle behavior, and gives a comprehensive list of sources of such information.
A limited number of copies of these articles are available, free of charge, from the
Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C., 20233. Copies
for classroom use can usually be provided.
iv
Descriptions
and
Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Intensive research over many years has provided
a record of the typical sequence of changes in economic processes during a business cycle; more
specifically, a list of significant series that usually
lead, those that usually move with, and those that
usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. The series have been grouped,
in accordance with the NBER classification, as
"leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators. In addition, other series are included in
this report for a more complete coverage of the
national economy.
The series are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below) . For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators .—About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. For this reason they are
r e f e r r e d to as "roughly coincident" series .
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series .
Other series.—Additional U.S. series with business cycle significance are also shown. Some of
these series, such as change in money supply,
merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
deficit, represent important factors in the economy,
but they have not qualified as indicators for various
reasons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally,
industrial production indexes for several countries
whichhave important trade relations with the United
States are presented.
Method of Presentation
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows!
Basic data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2 ) . — O v e r
50 business cycle indicators and about 30 additional series with business cycle significance are
included. Together they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations
in the economy as well as the basis for making an
economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 3-6).—
These measures aid in forming a judgment of the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle
and the extent of current changes in different parts
of the economy. They also aid in pointing to developments in particular industries and. places .
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented.
These materials include historical data,,
key information, and adjustment factors.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Seasonal and R e l a t e d Statistical
Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of Series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series are
as follows: 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 30, 37,
55, 62, 81, 82, 83, 84, 90, 91, 92, 97, 112, and 128.
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using Method II. The adjustment factors are
shown in appendix table D, except for series 11 and
97 which are the sums of seasonally adjusted components, &nd series 9 and 10 which are based on
Descriptions and Procedures
unpublished source data. Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted for the series mentioned above whenever they
are published.
Method II adjusts for changes in average climatic
conditions and institutional arrangements during
the year. Adjustments for variations in the number
of trading days are also made for some series; for
example, new building permits. Further adjustments for variable holidays, such as Easter, are
made for certain series; for example, retail sales
of apparel. Studies are now underway to determine whether similar adjustments for Labor Day,
Thanksgiving Day, and the day of the week upon
which Christmas falls would be useful.
Studies of the effects of unusual weather upon
some series have also been started. It is important
to note, however, that present methods adjust for
average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this average; that is, present methods
are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal
weather at any time of the year. For this reason,
many seasonally. adjusted series, such as housing
starts, will tend to be low in months when the
weather is unusually bad and high in months when
the weather is unusually good. While it eventually
rnay be possible, Census methods do not at present
make any adjustments for such variations.
MCD Moving Averages
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This
span is usually longer than a single month because
m on th-r,o-month changes are often dominated by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used 12-month span (change from the same month
a year ago), and is different for different series
(see appendix C for MCD values and method of
computation) .
MCD is, on average, the first interval of months
for which the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and
remains so. It is small for smooth series and
large for irregular series.
The differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD
are commensurate with the differences between
seasonally adjusted values separated by the same
MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences
in a 3-month moving average are commensurate
with differences in seasonally adjusted values over
3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have
about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular
series, such as business failures and Federal cash
payments, will show their cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for
such smooth series as industrial production and
personal income.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for
all series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide
an indication of the variation about these moving
averages, seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
for years beginning with 1958.
Although not so
smooth as more powerful moving averages such as
th0 weighted 15-term Spencer curve, the MCD
cuirve is more current and has a smaller rounding
bias around business cycle peaks and troughis. On
balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a reasonable compromise in terms of CAirrency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle
fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary
seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are
usually larger than those computed from historical
series and shown in appendix C . MCD is xisually
computed for a fairly long period, one covering
both expansions and contractions. 1 Since the pace
of change varies from phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will not provide an
.accurate estimate of the span over which to estimate Cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be tpo high during the early stages of recovery
when expansion has usually been rapid and too low
during the late stages of expansion when the rate of
advance has usually been small. This limitation
should also be borne in mind when making use of
this measure, 2
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented— Diffusion indexes, timing distributions, and
direction^ of-change tables.
These measures aid
in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current
changes compared to previous changes, the imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of
the economy. They also point to developments in
particular industries and places .
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling) . Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBJ£R.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over
1 -month intervals (January-February, FebruaryMarch, etc.) and generally for either 3- or 5-month
intervals depending upon the irregularity of the
1
Various terms are used to describe the phases
of the business cycle. In this report both "contraction" and "recession" are used to describe
the declining phase. No difference in meaning is
intended.
2
For a more complete description of MCD and its
use in studying economic series, see Business
Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1,
ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," by Juliu$ Shiskin (Princeton University
Press: 1961).
Descriptions and Procedures
series. The indexes based on 1-month intervals
are more "current" but they are also more irregular than the 3- or 5-month indexes ( s e e chart 2) .
Quarterly series are compared over 1-quarter
intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes. ' When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers .
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 15 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Eighteen
of these indexes are computed by the Bureau of the
Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9 indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
and D58) . Indexes for these indicators show comparisons for components over 1-month and either
3- or 5-month spans. The 11 other diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely related to
the above 9 indicators. They include two National
Industrial Conference Board indexes ( 1 - and 3quarter spans) based on newly approved capital
appropriations ( 17 industries); the First National
City Bank of New York index based on quarterly
profit reports (700 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers' sales (800 companies) and
new orders (400 companies), based on data from
Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings ( 19 commodity groups), based on data from the Association
of American Railroads; and new plant and equipment expenditures ( 16 industries), based on data
from the Office of Business Economics and the
Securities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments .
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning
point.
Each month a timing distribution is constructed which shows the number of series reaching high values during each month of the expansion.
The timing distribution is summarized by showing
the number of series reaching new highs and the
percent currently high for each of several recent
months (see table 3) .
Similar distributions of
"lows" will be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident
series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before
the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
expansions and at their peaks .
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions.) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is
taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table 2) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L11 to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In.
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of^change tables. —Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes.
These
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Directions of change for each index component
are shown for consecutive months and, depending
upon the irregularity of the series, for either 3- 01
5-month spans .
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle—whether it is in an expansion
or contraction.
Descriptions and Procedures
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels , In table 7 of this report, the current expansion
is measured from the May I960 reference peak to
the month of latest reported data. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are computed from
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
trom reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates . Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same number of months for
each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak
dates are different, depending on the length of the
contractions for each period. Also, for those earlier periods of expansion that were shorter than
tha current one, the comparisons made in table 7
reflect the status at a point after a new contraction
had set in. This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares, in this respect,
with earlier expansions.
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates Stable 8) . This type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from
the trough level so many months after the upswing
began. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 7: For earlier expansions that were shorter than the current one, the
comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing
changes over the span from the most recent business cycle peak to the current month and over
equal spans from previous reference peaks. This
type of comparison is designated as representing
changes from reference peak levels and from reference peak dates.
These comparisons will be
made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basi& of reference dates (which are the same
for all series), comparisons are made on the basis
°^ specific peak and trough dates identified for
each series. For example, the specific peak in
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 r e f e r ence peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock
prices is July 1959 (See appendix B) . Specific
cycle comparisons are shown in table 9. These
comparisons differ from those shown for reference
cycles in that they show the status only up to the
specific peak date. For some series past specific
expansions were shorter than the current one and,
therefore, the earlier comparisons span fewer
months than those for the current expansion.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only
approximate. Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation pro
ce<iure since 1919.
soft are as follows:
The principal eases of this
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41, Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment
in manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62, Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production
worker wage cost per unit) .
Charts
TwO, types of charts are used to highlight the
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators:
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time_Se_ries (charts 1 , 2 , and 3) .—
These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of each
series against the background of expansions and
recessions in general business activity from 1948
to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts
indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of
shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates
(ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession will be entered only after a trough has been
designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the
various series. The scale selected for each scries
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of
change of various series can be compared with
each other only where scales are identical. Sec the
diagram, p&ge 5, for additional help in using these
charts.
Cyclical ^Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) .—These
charts compare the performance of each series
during the current expansion with its performance
during the Expansion phase of previous business
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts
is disregarded, and instead the data are alined at
the strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions, the reference trough (chart 4) and specific trough (chart 5) . Thus these charts facilitate
judgements on the vigor of the current expansion
relative to cyclical movements during the corresponding expansions of previous cycles.
Two types Of cyclical comparisons are made.
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current business or reference cycle ( i . e . , t h e cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the
corresponding phase of previous reference cycles.
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current sj>ecific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases
of previous specific cycles in that series. In both
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, the
levels of the preceding peaks are also alined and
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs are
also alined. See the section, "Comparisons of
Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions
of these comparisons.
Descriptions and Procedures
(Apr.)
Peak fP) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Such data may be the
table-2 figures, MCD moving
averages, or diffusion indexes-charts 2 and 3.)
Para I lei lines indicate a break
in cqntinuity--e.g., data not
available, change in sample reported, change in base used for
computations, etc.
(May) (Feb.)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
of .Expansion fwhite areas)
as designated by
.Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted
("5"= May)
Broken lines indicate table-2
data for series where an MCD
moving overage* is plotted
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted
("I" = first quarter)
See back cover for complete
titles and sources of series
Dotted line indicates anticipated
Solid line with quarterly
plotting points indicates
quarterly data
Various ratio and arithmetic scales
ore used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series, "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-l" is
a semtlogarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"'scale L-2", a semtlogarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
*Certoin irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages, These series are noted. Such averages are plotted 2 months behind actual data for
MCD 5-term moving averages and 2X2 months behind, for MCD 6-term moving averages. See text for description of MCD moving averages.
Basic Data
Table 1.--BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS
Basic data1
Series descriptions
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
1.
2.
30.
3.
4.
5.
Unit of
measure
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg...
Accession rate, manufacturing ....
...
Nonagri. placements, all industries.
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Temporary layoff, all industries...*
Avg. weekly initial claims, State
Hours
Per 100templ
Thous
Per 100 empl
Apr.
1964
Percent change2
June
1964
May
1964
July
1964
Avg,
change,
195319633
Bil. dol,...
..do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space
Bil. dol...,
* .do
7n Private nonfarm housing starts...... Ann. rate,
thous
1957-59»1QO.
Thous . . . .
...
Number
Mil. dol....
29. New bldg. permits, private housing..
12. Net change, number of businesses4 5.
13 . New bus iness incorporat ions
14. Liabilities of business failures...,
15, Large business failures
16. Corporate profits after taxes4
No. per week.
Ann. rate,
bil. dol...
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg,. 1957-59=100..
18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg,4.... Cents.
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries4..,. Percent
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*.... 1941-43=10...
21. Change in business inventories, all Ann. rate,'
industries4 5
bil. dol....
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
40.7
r3.8
533
1.7
104
40.6
P3.9
516
pl.5
117
p40.6
(NA)
523
(NA)
129
0.5
4.9
1.8
9.5
17.8
260
6. New orders, durable goods indus
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus..
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial.
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip..
11. New capital appropriations, mfg,4...
40.7
4.0
522
1,6
122
260
259
261
5.3
20.46
3.61
rl9.94
r3.93
r98
!.0
r3.88
54.84
4.37
46.22
r4.63
1501
111.1
r!507
110. 3
+17
15932
90.44
16242
98.50
CNA)
-0.8
p21.1Q
P3.84
3.6 — ? 5 -0.7
4.5 +6^9 -1.3
+6.6
-1.0
48.22
P4.59
(NA)
(NA)
9.7 -15.7 +4.3
4.9 +5.9 -0.9
11.6 (NA)
(NA)
(NA)
rl570
rll6.4
PH95
P109.5
15797
153.07
(NA)
(NA)
39
38
43
103.8
31.7
rlOj.7
r0.
!30
p!03.2
10,6
79.94
80.72
+0.4
-0.7
+1
-1.9
+8.2
+4.2
+5.5
-4,8
-5.9
-0.8
-69.3
(NA)
(NA)
13.1 +15.2
+2.6
-13.2
6.3 +1.6
0.7 -0.1 -0.7
6.8 (NA)
+Q.2
7.3
3.8
2
2.7
16.9
5.1 +1.9
2.6 +1.0
80.24
83.22
+7.5
r+l.d
pfl.5
(NA)
-1.0
r-0.1
pO.O
(NA)
Percent
55
51
56
58
6.8
..do
59
58
59
58
..do
60
63
55
59
20. Change in book value, rafrs." inventories of materials and supplies5,. . • do. .,,**.,.
0.0
0.0 -0.2
-5.0 +2*6 (NA)
+2.1 -3.2 +1,4
-6.2 +11,6 (NA)
+14. 8 -12,5 -10.3
0.0 +0.4
46
(NA)
Apr. May June
to
to
to
May June July
1964 1964 1964
-0.6
+3.7
3.5 -5.9
-0.1
(NA)
1.5 +0.9
+0.1
(NA)
-7.3
+9.B
+3.6
5.8 -1.7
+1.7
-1.7
7.7 +5.0 -12.7
+7.3
2.5 +1.2
r+3.7
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories «
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries*
25. Chang'e in unfilled orders, durable
goods industries5
23. Industrial materials prices*. .,**..,
Bil. dol
1957-59*100..
+1.04
102.4
r+0.38
100.9
r+0.56
101.4
p+1.15
102.5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments.
42, Total nonagricultural employment,,..
43 . Unemployment rate, total
40,. Unemployment rate, married males....
45. Avg. weekly insured unemplojs-, State.
Thous . . . .
....
. .do
Percent . . ,
. •do. ••*•••••
..do
58502
65811
5.4
2.9
3.8
r58590
65889
5.1
2.6
3.6
rS8750
65549
5.3
2.8
3.6
P58888
65706
4.9
2.7
3.6
0.3
0.4
4.2
6.0
4.8
+0.3
-0.5
-3.9
-7.7
0.0
+0.2
+7.5
+3.6
0.0
120
r!30.5
118
r!31.3
121
r3.
!17
p!24
P132.7
3.1 -1.7 +2.5
1.1 +0.6 +0.3
+2.5
+0.8
47. Industrial production
50. GNP in 1954 dollars4
49. GNP in eirrent dollars4
57. Final sales4
1957-59«100..
..do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol,...
..do
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., cons tr.. ..do.
54. Sales of retail stores
Mil. dol
55. Wholesale prices, except farm prod1957-59=100..
2313.0
487.8
125.8
r21777
101.1
101.1
+0.2
+0.1
+5.6
+10.3
+5.3
+0.2
1.3 +1.1
1.5 +1.6
1.3 +1.4
r513.5
r6l8.6
r6l4.9
2451.3
486.6
125.9
21392
0.49 -0.66 +0.1B +0.59
1.3 -1.5 +0.5 +1.1
r2328,8 P2430.9
r489.3 P490.8
r2.
! 6 4 p!26.7
r2l675 p21928
rldl.O
plOl.2
1.5
0.5
0.3
0.8
0.2
-5.6
+0.2
-0.1
+1.8
+0.7
+0.3
+0.5
-0.5
+4.4
+0.3
0.0 -0.1
+0.2
+0.2
+1.2
Basic Data
Table 1.-BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS-Continued
Basic data1
Series descriptions
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Apr.
1964
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant
Ann. rate,
and equipment*
bil. dol
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.. 1957-59=100.,
68. Labor cost per dollar of real cor64. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories.,.. Eil. dol
65, Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
finished goods.
* ...do
66. Consumer installment debt
Mil. dol
67. Bank rates on short-term business
Percent, . . .
.
Percent change2
June
1964
May
1964
JUly
1%4
Avg. Apr. May June
change, to
to
to
1953- May June July
3
1964 1964 1964 1964
97.5
a43.35
r97.5.
r98.0
p98.0
3.2
0.6
+1.9
0.0 +0.5
0.0
6(X5
104.9
r60.5
p60.4
(NA)
0.9
0.5
+0.7
0.0 -0.2
(NA)
21.6
54727
r21.6
55220 ,
p21.4
55590
(NA)
(NA)
0.8
0.8
0.0 -0.9
+0.9 +0.7
(NA)
(NA)
2.3
4.99
0.0
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
82. Federal cash payments to public
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
Federal cash receipts from public... . ,do. •«*••»..
5
Federal cash surplus or deficit .... . .do.
Balance, Federal income and product
account* 5
»*.*
..do
Defense Dept. oblig. , procurement... Mil. dol
123.2
126.6
+3.4
110.3
105.1
-5.2
120.0
114-4
-5.6
1516
-9.2
2192
(NA)
4592
2529
2.37
+162
+0.32
4941
2465
r2.48
r+78
-0.13
(NA)
(NA)
r2.13
+118
+0.71
+0.44
+0.30
; +0.81
+l".81
(NA)
(NA)
r+5.60
r+3.88
+4.94
3.48
4.20
4.49
3.28
+5.92
3.48
4.16
4.48
3.20
5.45
86. Exports, excluding military aid..... Mil. dol, . • , ,
2046.0
1542.1
..do
+503.9
..do
89. U.S. balance of payments* 5
1957-59*100..
• .do. . . , ,
.«..
94. Construction contracts, value
96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus... Bil. dol
6
97. Backlog of capital appro, mfg.
• . do ••••«,,*•
83.
84.
95,
90.
91. -Defense Dept, obligations, total....
92. Military contract awards in U.S
, • do ••••«••••
99* New orders, defense products
Bil. dol
5
Mil. dol
93. Free reserves*
98. Change in money supply and time deAnn. rate,
bil. dol....
..do
..do
5
113. Change, consumer installment debt .. * .do.
Percent
117. Municipal bond yields*
*.,
..do
..do
107.9
138
48.84
126.9
116.4
-10.5
5.7 -10.5
5.4 -17.0
5.6 -8.6
+8.8
+8.8
-0.4
+5.8
+1.7
-4.9
2.5 -6.8
26.9 +44.6 (NA)
15.1
26.2
P3.07 23.3
P+135 104.2
p+0.71 0.23
p+0.73
0.21
+7.6
-2.5
+4.6
-84
-0.45
(NA)
(NA)
-14.1 +44.1
+40
+17
+0.84 0.00
-0.14 +0.51 -0.08
+3.84
11.6
(NA)
8.6 (NA)
1.22 +3.79 -1.72
-0.04
+4.44
3.48
4.13
4.49
3.20
(NA)
3.48
4.13
4.43
3.18
0.85 +0.98 -1.48
0.0 0.0
7.3
1.8 -1.0 -0.7
1.7 -0.2 +0.2
2.6 -2 4 0.0
(NA)
0.0
0.0
-1.3
-0.6
5.45
2052.1
1548.1
+504.0
p-789
5.45
2004.3
1505.5
+498.8
5.46
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
.58
4.6
3.6
59.0
286
0.0 0.0
+0.3 -2.3
+0.4 -2.8
+0.1 -5.2
-714
+0.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
108.0
138
r49.22
108.1
138
r49.78
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P50.94
0.2
7.0
1.5
5.9
+0.1 +0.1
0.0 0.0
+0,8 +1.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+2.3
r » revised; p » preliminary; e « estimated; a » anticipated; NA * not available.
1
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series indicated by an asterisk ( ) that appear to contain no sea*,
sonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2.
2
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity
rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,
4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g., if the
rate of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as -tO.6. See footnote 5 for other "change" qualifications.
3
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
among the series, covering 1953-63 for most series.
*Qiarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter,
5
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent.
6
End-of-quarter series. Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators
1. Avg. workweek, prod. wkrs.. info
2. Accession rnte, mfg, (per 100 employees)
30. Nonagri. placements, oil indus. (rti
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees
inverted scale)
4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.—inverted
scole. MCD moving avg.-s-S-term
•":"••??
5- Avg. weekly initial claims, Stafe unempl
insur. (thous.—inverted scalej
1 94 8
1 949
1 950
1 95 1
1 952
1 953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5,
1 954
1 955
1 956
1 957
1 958
1 959
1 960
1 961
1 962 1 963
1 964
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol.)
New investment commitments
24. New orders, moch. and equip, Indus, (bil. dol.)
9. Constr. contracts, com. and Indus, {mil. $q- ft. of
floor area. MCD moving avg.--6-te
10. Contracts and prders, plant and equip, (bil.
dol.)
New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bif. dol.)
7. Private nonform housing vstarts (millions.
MCD moving avg.--6-term
29. New bUg. permits, pr
w otcg. perrmrs, private housing units
dex: 1957-59-fOO)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
10
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
Now businesses ond business failures
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Fab.)
P
T
;
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.
13= New bus. I ncorpOrations (thous.) '.
. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.-inverted scale, MCD nloving avg,--6-terrn)
15. Large bus. failures (no. p$r wk.-inverted scale. MCD moving ovg.—6-term)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Basic Data
11
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Profits ond stock prices |
16, Corporate profits, after taxes, Q (bit. dol.
17. Ratio, price to unit abor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59-100)
18, Profits per dollar of sales, mfg., Q (cents)
A.
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
all industries, Q (percent)
19. Stock prices 500 common stocks • '
(index: 1941-43-10)
-1 20
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962 1963
1964
12
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(May) (F.b.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
21. Change i n bus. inventories, all indus,, Q (bil. dol.)
31. Change in book value, mfg. and
trade tnventoriesfAnn, rate, bil. do!,MCD moving avg.--4-term
20. Change in book value, mfrs.1 inventorie
materials, and suppliesfAnn. rate, bil.
MCD moving ovg.-5-term )
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 da s or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil.
MCD moving ovg.--4-ter.-n )
||
|
dol.
23, Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59^100)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
19£9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Basic Data
13
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident I n d i c a t o r s
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Em loyment and unemployment
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (millions)
42. Total nonagr. employment (millions)
43. Unemployment mte (percent—inverted scale)
i-!1 ;!:•'•• 40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent—inverted scale)
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate
(percent—inverted scale)
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59 = 1QO')
1
*
'
'
'"""
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read CKarts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
14
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Au».)
T
(May) (Fob.)
P
T
47. Industrial production {index: 1957-5 =000)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars, Q (b,I. dol.)
49. GNP in current dollars, Q (bil. dot,)
57. Final sales, Q (bil. dof.)
-J 250
194 8
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How io Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956 1957 1958 1959 I960
1961
1962 1963
1964
Basic Data
15
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER R o u g h l y C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s — Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
2.4
2.2
2,0 1
•
51. Bank debits outside NYC (trif
1
1.8
1.6
500
450 ~
^i
~B
400 *
52. Personal income (bil. dol.)
350
130
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (biL dol.)
120 ^
110 J!
o
too
9<
2.
54. Sales of retail stores (bil.
20
dot.)
16
14
110
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
(index: 1957-59=100)
100
90
80
194 8
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5,
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960 1961
1962 1963
1964
Basic Data
16
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
I
I
I-
* i
(May) (F.b.)
I
I
P
T
I T: H
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (bit. dol.)
[investment expenditures
62. Lobor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59"100)
I Cost per unit of output |
68. Labor cost per dol. of r$al corp. GNP, Q (index: 1957-59 100)
ok value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.)
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol,)
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
ivU
67. Bank rotes on short-term bus, loans, Q (percent)
1948
U>49
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Basic Data
17
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
P ^ Other U.S. S e r i e s with B u s i n e s s Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
[Federal budget and military commitments):^;;
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
82. Fed cash payments to public (bil. dol
MCD moving avg.«6 term)
e . cash receipts r o m p u
83. Fed. c a s r e c e p s from public (bil. dol
MCD moving avg.—6-term)
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.--6-t.erm)
95- Surplus or deficit. Fed. income and
product acct., Q (bil. dol.)
90. Defense Dept. oblig.. procurement (bil. dol. I;:::1
.--6-term)
fcttf.
91. Defense Dept. obliq., total (bil.
MCD moving.avg.--6-term)
f
l!
dol.
;
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil.
MCD moving ovg."6-term)fl
dol.
':'•'; 99, New orders, defense products (bil. dol
•''• :
MCP moving avg.--6-term)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See 'How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
18
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
I CHART 1 |
|
[u| Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Au9.)
T
(May) (F.b.)
P
T
Reserves, money supply and financing [
;:Vi".
V
:
93. Free reserves (fail, dol.)
85. Change in money supply (percent
MCD moving avg,--6-term
. r
98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent •
MCD moving avg.--6-term
/.^
110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, bit. dol.)
r=v'
:yJT;
<
111. Corporate gross savings (Ann. rate, bil. dol.
112. Changes in bank loans to businesses (Ann. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.-5-term)
H3. Change in consumer installment debt. (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 1, and 3," pope 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
i960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Basic Data
19
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
D • Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
114. Treasury bill rate (percent)
115. Treasury bond yields percent)
m
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
.; .
••';.,
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3/fage 5,
1954
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
118. Mortgage yields (percent)
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
20
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1$48 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. S e r i e s with B u s i n e s s Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e -Con,
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
T
P
T
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol.)
87. General imports (bil. dol.)
e trade balance (bil.
89. Excess of receipts or payments
••^.U.S. balance of payments, Q (bi
prices (index: 1957-59=100)
94. Construe on contracts, value (index:
MCDmo
lied orders, dur. goods ind
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q /bil. dot.]
** f \\
-16
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3,* page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Basic Data
21
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
E )• I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o m p a r i s o n s of Industrial Production
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
1
^
HUO -
ii.1
47. United States {index: 1957-59-100}.
160.,
140 j
S
123. Canada (index: 1957-59-100)
120
122. United Kingdom 'jndex: 1957-59-100)
,140 2
"o
120 -
Js
1
160
H1
2
1
I: :--.--::
140 ^
121. OECD countries {mdcx: 1957-59-100)
120
160
«
U
°i
120 8
240
220
200
st Germany {index: 1957-69=100)
180 2
>
160 |
128. Japan {index; 1957-59-100)
140
120
160
140 j
1?6. France (index: 1957-59^100)
120
180
160
140
120
100
90
-180
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1933
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
§
22
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ( and current highs, by GD; the reverse is
*.
D
true for Inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40j 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e(l, estimated; "a", anticipated; and !'NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators
1. Avg. work-2. Accession
week, produc- rate, manution workers, facturing2
manufacturing1
Year and
month
(Hours)
1961
January
March
April
May. ,,
June .*.,...*,..
July. * » . . . .
...
AUgU*? 1 1 . , , r t . . .
September
November
1962
January* *
March
April
May...., , . . .
.,.
JulV
September, * . .
..
October
November
*
December. . . .
...
1963
March
April
,, , ..
j%Y
June » . ,
July
October
November
December , . . . ...
1964
February. . . .
...
March
April
May
July
,
AuiniS't
§ftp"fcfinoib$r
„
,
(Per 100
employees)
30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
rate, manucultural
placements, facturing
all industries
(Per 100
(Thous . ) employees)
4. Persons
on temporary
layoff, all
industries3
5. Average
weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance4
6. New orders, durable goods
industries
24- New orders, machinery and
equipment
industries 5
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
39.2
39.4
39.4
39.5
39.6
39.8
39.9
40.0
39.8
40.3
40.6
40.3
3.9
3.8
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.1
4.1
3.8
[).
E44
4.3
4.1
©444
447
459
448
469
494
493
512
507
524
540
551
2.9
©2.9
2.4
2.1
2.2
2,2
2.3
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.0
173
©222
215
141
150
151
101
136
127
113
115
127
393
©429
379
381
358
334
348
316
329
304
305
296
©13,95
14.31
14.53
15.51
15.59
15.89
15.92
16.12
15.97
16.26
16.74
17.26
2.76
2.74
2.71
2.74
2.70
2.80
3.03
3.07
2.88
2.91
2.98
2.96
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.6
40.5
40.4
40.4
4.
02
40.7
40.2
40.4
40.2
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
557
559
572
574
0592
557
557
550
555
554
563
547
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
135
S88
118
107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120
304
291
279
280
300
309
308
303
300
300
298
317
17.70
17.70
17.15
17.02
17.22
16.65
16.91
16.59
16.55
17.29
16.73
17.33
3.15
3.30
2.97
3.31
3.10
3.02
3.07
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.16
3.07
40.4
40.3
40.5
40.1
40.5
40.5
40.4
40.3
40.7
4.
06
40.5
40.5
3.7
3.9
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.9
4.0
3.7
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.9
552
555
553
560
551
541
541
540
552
570
530
532
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.8
152
121
107
138
95
92
131
13P
10$
135
134
97
313
294
285
290
286
287
283
285
282
281
280
308
18.47
18.23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18.24
18.62
18.11
17.97
3.25
3.21
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3.27
3.61
40.1
4.
06
40.7
40.7
©40.7
40,6
P40.6
3.7
4.0
4.0
40
.
r3.a
P3.9
(MA)
536
535
520
522
533
516
523
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.7
0pl.5
(NA)
123
123
91
122
104
117
129
289
264
273
260
260
R259
261
'6
25
19.74
19.50
19.26
20.46
rl9.94
r98
!.0
0P21.10
3.62
3.41
3,46
3.61
(Hjr3.93
r3.S8
P3.B4
December. . . .
...
1
2
CD « December 1 6 .
90
© « October 1 6 .
90
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962,
the 1950 Census Is used as the benchmark.
*Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
I © « November 1960.
ended August 8.
Week
Basic Data
23
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( )
* . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [ " ; the reverse is
H|
true for inverse series
(series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 )
5.
Series numbers are f£r identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", hot available.
N3ER Leading Indicators —Continued
9. Construction contracts,
commercial and
industrial
buildings
10. Contracts
and orders,
plant and
equipment
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
Year and
month
(Bil. dol.)
11. Newly ap- 7. New private 29. New priproved capital nonfarm dwel- vate housing
units authorappropriations, ling units
ized by local
602 manufac- started2
building per^
turing 1
corpomits 2
rations
(Bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
thous , )
(1957-59=100)
1,216
1.199
1.305
1,133
1,215
1,340
1,305
1,252
1,453
1,381
1,319
1,324
89.5
88.2
91.3
91*4
93.2
98.7
98.9
101.9
100.2
104.2
101.8
99.0
1,392
1,253
1,460
1,489
1,501
1,366
1,423
1,459
1,328
1,491
1,564
1,541
102.8
109.8
105.0
111.5
103.7
107.1
108.6
106.3
110.2
109.5
114.9
114.5
1,317
1,353
1,549
1,590
1,590
1,554
1,573
1,434
1,697
131,807
1,533
1,518
110.1
108.7
112.7
111.8
117,6
120.6
115.7
111.7
121.4
124.9
121.1
EQ126.2
1,688
1,613
1,638
1,501
rl,507
rl,570
pl,495
116.3
124.3
122.5
111.1
110.3
rll6.4
P109.5
12. Net change 13. New business incorpoin business
rations .
population,
operating
businesses
(Thous.)
(Number)
1961
February
torch
April
May
«
June
July
August .........
October
November
1962
January
March
April
May
»
July
August. *.......
September
November
December .......
1963
January
March
April
Miv
.
*
July
AuffU£t. . . . . I T . .
September * t - - * »
October
November
Deeeniber. , * , T t .
1964
March
April
May
June * ..........
July
AUTUSt. ........
36.21
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61
41.69
3.51
3.39
©3.20
3.28
3.27
3.39
3.57
3.66
3.40
3.48
3.66
3.50
38.70
42.75
45.90
42.72
44.64
41.16
40.56
42.69
40.96
41.08
42.20
41.89
3.71
3.98
3.71
3.96
3.76
3.66
3.72
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.14
U.15
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
04.68
51.64
52.47
48.17
E154.84
46.22
48.22
(NA)
4.37
4.12
4.10
4.37
r4.63
P4.59
(NA)
l!84
1^93
2*.23
aiio
2 '.34
2^02
2\&
2.71
2\I6
2.65
03.21
3.20
3^08
(NA)
September .*.,..
October
November * T t - - T *
1
( « 3rd quarter I 6 .
D
90
2
© * December 1 6 .
90
©+6
+10
'+9
+11
+ii
+12
+11
+11
+11
+11
+13
+12
+16
E+17
©13,607
14,570
14,658
15,327
15,298
15,431
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
16,149
15,881
15,599
15,758
15,670
15,372
15,245
14,947
15,171
15,056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985
14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
016,275
15,7-59
15,867
16,193
16,086
16,064
16,242
15,932
15,797
(NA)
Basic Data
24
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted aeries are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by QQ and current highs, by 0; the reverse ;U;
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5* 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
riot reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" Indicate
revised; "p11, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures1
Year and
month
(Mil. dol.)
1961
January. ..**...
I torch
April
v'av
Jane
July
.*.
September*
November
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July,,
,. . . ,
October
November *....*.
1963
January . . * * . . , .
February
March
April...
.
Ifcy
June
July. ,
s^ptemb**!*'. » r * . *
October
November «
1964
January* . ,
February, „ » . . . .
March
April
May
June
i.*..
July
18. Profits
15. Business 16. Corpo- 17. Ratio,
(before taxrate profits price to
failures
with liabil- after taxes unit labor es) per dol.
ities of '
cost index, sales, all
manufactur- mfg. corpo$100,000 and
rations
over 2
ing
(Number per
week)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.
38
77.79
83.73
116.17
76.88
82.96
86.69
80.15
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
71.81
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38
101.53
86.03
77.40
107.15
89. BO
93.15
107.98
121.85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99.61
37
032
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
146.46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
©JS2.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17
49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
39
87.70
121.87
107.25
98.50
90.44
15,3.07
(NA)
41
42
37
46
39
38
43
a
September
October * * * . ... *
November ... a ...
December t ......
1
2
( » June 1960.
D
© « October 1960.
Average for August 17, 18, and 19.
3
©19.5
21.8
22 !6
24.5
24^5
24!9
25.0
25^7
25^5
26.6
26.7
28!i
31 .2
1331.7
(1957-59=
100)
99.3
©98.8
99.0
100.4
100.4
101.0
101.4
102.0
101.7
101.5
101.7
102.3
101.3
101.7
101.8
100.9
101.1
100.4
100.7
100.7
101.9
100.7
101.1
100.5
100.6
100.8
101.3
101.1
101.8
102.6
102.3
101.5
101.8
101.9
101.9
102.3
103.2
103.3
102.7
(3103.8
r!03.7
r!03.0
p!03.2
(Gents)
22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating,
corporate,
all indue.
(Percent)
©6*.o
©7 .9
7.*6
8!6
7^9
8^5
8.6
93
8*.2
9^2
s.'i
9*.i
s!i
9*.l
s!3
<?!i
7.9
9!l
8^5
9^4
s!5
43
$'.8
9^8
09!l
10.4
(NA)
GOIO!O
21. Change in
19. Stock
prices, 500 but3 ins os incommon
ventories after valuation
stocks* 2
adjustment,
all indue.
(1941-43^10)
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
71.74
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.9?
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74.17
76.45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80.72
80,24
083.22
3
82.36
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
©-3.9
+i'.i
+3.7
+5.6
(E)+6.'9
•*4;i
+5!i
+5^4
+3\6
+3!6
+4.*2
+6.4
+2!5
r+3.*7
25
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 196(1 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by [BTI; the reverse is
*.
true for inverse series (series 3> 4> 5* 14> 15? 4-0, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators —Continued
37* Purchased
materials,
percent reporting higher
inventories
31. Change in
book value,
manuf a c tur i ng
and trade inventories,
total1
20. Change in
book value,
mf rs . ' inventories of materials and
supplies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. del.)
Year and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
-4.3
-2.2
-7.2
+1.0
+0.8
-0.8
+2.0
+3.1
+4.0
+1.9
+7.0
+6.2
-1.6
-1.9
-2.0
-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
+0.8
+2.9
+2.2
+0.3
+1.3
GD+6.6
©35
39
42
46
43
46
54
57
56
52
55
+6.0
+5.7
+6.0
+2.6
+7.1
+5.6
+3.9
+2.0
+5.6
+5.5
+1.2
+5.1
+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2*4
-0,3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7
+2.4
+1.9
+2.3
+4.0
+2.1
+4.4
+5.3
+0.9
+4.0
+7.6
©+9.1
+6.1
+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0 3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
26. Production
matls . , percent reporting
commitments
60 days or
longer* 1
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance,
percent reporting slower
deliveries* 2
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in 23. Industrial
unfilled or- materials
ders, durable prices* a
goods industries3
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
1961
torch
April
May
July
October
Nov^mbeT --,...-.
41
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54
38
40
• 40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53
-0.39
-0.07
-0.42
+0,36
+0.07
+0.11
+0.37
+0.42
+0.01
+0.25
+0.41
+0.65
58
57
57
55
53
48
45
46
44
45
49
48
57
13 61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51
56
56
55
48
46
42
44
U
48
48
48
48
+0.63
+0.62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94,0
94.9
96.4
95.8
46
48
47
50
55
57
56
50
49
46
42
42
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
+0.96
+0*68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7
55
54
60
60
063
55
59
+.0
04
+0.57
+0.16
+1.04
r+0.38
r+0.56
®pH.15
98.5
98.5
98.9
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
4
105.5
51
49
97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
©104.4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0
1962
torch
April
May
julY
September* * * * * *
October. *
November
1963
February
March
April
Hfev
JUly
August. . . . .
....
September ,..,,,
October
PeeembeTr . T » , T ,
1964
January •**....,
March
April
May....
r+4.8
-0.7
+3.0
+7.5
r+1.6
JUTK* t t - . t r r r . t r
JH-1.5
July
(NA)
-1.9
40
50
54
55
il
56
058
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
r-0.1
pO.O
(NA)
53
54
56
59 ;
58
59
58
September
November «».».*.
2
*,© = December 1960.
( = March 1 6 .
D
90
4
Average for August 17, 18, and 19.
1
CD s January
1960.
26
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted gxeept those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted serico are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by QD; the reverse io
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45) < Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect aeries relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Th© "r" indicated
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
41- Employees
in nonagricultural establishments
42. Total
43. Unemnonagricul- ployment
tural emrate, total1
ployment,
labor force
survey1 2
40. Unemployment
rate, married males1
45. Avg.
weekly insured unemployment
rate, State
programs3
(Thous . )
Year and
month
(Thous . ) (Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
61,034
60,897
61,229
61,154
61,134
61,622
61,259
61,274
61,299
61,463
61,896
61,747
6.7
6.9
6.9
7.0
'©7.1
6.9
6.9
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.2
6.0
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
©5.0
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.2
4.2
3.9
6.2
6.3
©6.3
5.9
5.6
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
4.8
88
©88
90
89
91
93
94
98
98
107
110
110
©103.3
103.4
103.8
106.6
108.8
110.9
112.0
113.4
112.0
113.5
114.8
115.6
61,899
62,179
62,253
62,247
62,663
62,752
62,620
63,021
63,039
63,007
62,870
63,240
5.8
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.8
5.5
3.8
3.3
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
4.7
4.5
4.4
3.9
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
114
115
115
112
114
109
110
108
107
107
107
e0
!7
114.6
116.3
117.3
117.8
118.3
118.4
119.4
119.4
119.8
119.2
119.5
119.1
63,090
63,227
63,478
63,770
63,690
63,843
64,092
64,069
64,167
64,128
64,319
64,315
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.9
5.5
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.3
4.8
4.6
4>4
4*2
4,2
4.1
4-X
44
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.3
e0
!7
e0
!9
e0
!8
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
119.7
120.6
121.8
122.7
124.5
125.5
125.7
125.1
125.4
125.9
126.1
126.8
64,631
65,035
65,207
65,811
0589
6,8
65,549
65,706
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.1
5.3
©4.9
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
J02.6
2.8
2.7
4-3
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
133.6
*3.7
116
117
rl!8
120
118
121
[Hjpl24
127.7
128.2
129.0
r!30.5
r!31.3
rl31.7
EJP132.7
46. Helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
(1957-59=100
47. Industrial production
50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars
(1957-59=
100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. del.)
1961
53,725
©53,541
March
53,615
April
53,713
May
53,911
June
54,165
July
54,294
54,444
54,480
September *****4
October
54,593
54,825
IV»cenibi*r. . , - 1 . . 54,927
1962
54,946
February
55,223
March
55,368
April
55,703
May....,
55,822
June . . * * ,
55,908
July
56,010
August. . . . .
....
56,019
56,125
October • ,.
56,195
November *
56,205
56,211
December
1963
56,333
56,458
February
56,706
March
April
56,873
tev
57,060
June
57,194
July
57,340
August
57,344
57,453
57,646
57,580
November...
57,748
1964
January
57,850
February, . . ...
.
58,183
tfarch
58,327
April..........
58,502
Jfay.....
r 58, 590
r 58, 7 50
July
[Hjp58,888
August
«.
September . . .
...
October
©434 .V
444*4
450.6
462 .*5
469 'l
475 il
478 ! 3
483*. 6
485 \l
487 !<?
494^8
502*6
508*6
[S]r513*5
December. » • * * * •
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962,
the 21950 Census is used as the benchmark.
CD » December 1960.
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
Week ended August 1.
Basic Data
27
Toblc 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( )
* . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (D and current highs, by [H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 )
5.
Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r11 indicates
n
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a , anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators —Continued
57. Final
49. Gross
sales (series
national
49 minus 21)
product in
current dollars
Year and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
52. Personal
51. Bank '
debits outside income1
NYC, 343
centers1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
53. Labor in- 54. Sales of
55. Wholesale
come in mining, retail stores prices except
manufacturing,
farm products
and foods
and construction 1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
1961
©501 ! 4
513 ,*9
r531.4
r538.7
553.4
54?! 3
r554.0
566! 6
561 [2
5?i!s
568 1 2
577 ,'4
r573.7
587 \2
583^6
599^6
592! 6
608 ".8
r606.4
®r6l8.6
QD r 614. 9
,. . .
August,
October
ftovemhp»r * - . * T . T
December
1962
February
torch
April
May
536^9
559 .'6
July
518!?
545 .'5
toy
511 .*8
522^4
torch
April
505 '.3
*
JUly
October
November
December 1 1- . . . - T
1963
January
February
March
April
toy
July
SeptftllJbpr * r r - r *
October
November .......
December
1964
March
April
May
July
AmnWt. t T i, .....
October
Novenih**r * T .....
*<D » December 1960.
Week ended August 18.
2
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824,0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9
405.0
406.2
410.3
411.6
4L3.6
416.1
420.0
420.0
421.8
425.4
429.0
431.5
104.2
104.0
104,5
105.4
106.4
107.7
108.0
108.8
108.8
110.6
Hi. 7
112.1
17,942
17,965
17,971
©17,811
18,003
18,098
18,234
18,373
18,371
18,494
18,775
18,879
101.0
101.1
101.1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9
2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044.4
2,015.0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090,5
2,066.9
431.6
434.9
437.6
440.2
441.0
441.7
443.3
444.1
446.2
447.7
449.5
452.0
112.0
113.0
114.2
115.9
115.4
115.4
116.3
116.1
117.1
116.8
116.6
117.0
18,990
19,139
19,320
19,389
19,585
19,311
19,658
19,671
19,844
19,837
20,112
20,253
100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7
2,148.0
2,085.5
2,095.6
2,198.1
2,150.7
2,105.4
2,276.8
2,189.7
2,275.0
2,316.3
2,246.9
2,320.5
454.9
454.1
456.5
457.6
460.2
462.7
464.0
466.1
468.9
472.7
473.8
477.1
117.4
117.4
118.3
118.8
120.1
120.8
120.7
120.7
122.1
122.5
122.2
123.1
20,387
20,374
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486
20,719
20,666
20,426
20,716
20,558
21,019
100.5
100.5
100.5
©100.4
100.fi
100.8
100.9
100.9
100 . 8
100.9
100.9
101.0
2,355.1
2,239.9
2,322.5
02,451-3
2,313.0
r2,328.8
p2,430.9
479.4
480.5
482.9
486.6
487.8
r489.3
(H1P490.8
122.7
124-2
124.6
125.9
125.8
r!26.4
0P126.7
21,000
21,533
21,223
21,392
r21,777
r21,675
[S)p21,928
101.1
101.1
101.0
101.1
101.1
rlOl.O
GDplOl.2
2
101.2
28
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continiwd
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (ip and current highs, by QD ; the reverse is
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicater>
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Lagging Indicators
6l. Business
expenditures ,
new plant and
equipment ,
total
62. Labor cost
per unit of
output, manufacturing
68. Labor cost 64> Book value 65, Book value 66. Consumer
per dollar of of mfrs. ! in- of- nvf rs . ' in- installment
ventories of debt
real corporate ventories
GNP
finished goods
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year and
month
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
Revised1
1961
33!a5
March
April
Ito
June
July
©33.50
September
,
October
Notfftnib^r » . , . . » »
Peceiribfii% - * - * » •>
34! 70
35^40
101.8
102.4
102.2
100.5
100.2
99.5
99.1
98.5
99.0
98.9
99.0
©98.4
104.9
103.4
103^8
©102.3
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
53.7
53.7
53.5
53.4
53.4
©53.4
53.6
53.9
53.9
54.3
54.7
•55.1
18.4
18,4
18.3
18.4
18.3
18.4
©18.3
18.5
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.8
42,109
42,035
42,041
©41,367
41,870
41,895
41,903
41,987
42,052
42,221
42,442
42,774
55.4
55.7
56.0
56.1
56.4
56.3
56.9
57.0
57.3
57 t 4
57.6
57.8
19.0
19.1
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8
42,960
43,220
43,532
44,017
44,437
44,826
45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174
57.$
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,588
51,069
51, UO
51,941
52,324
52,784
60.0
60.1
60.3
60.5
®r60.5
p60.4
(NA)
21.2
21.4
21.4
21.6
(Hjr21.6
p21.4
(NA)
53,212
53,791
54,315
54,727
55,220
055,590
(NA)
67. Bank rates
on short-term
busineco
loans, 19
eities*
(Percent)
4! 97
4.' 97
4. *99
©4.'%
1962
January
*
35 '.70
Maroh
April
May
36 .'<?5
July
38 '.35
September
October. .......
37^95
99.4
99.0
98.8
99.8
99.8
0100.4
100.1
100.2
99.6
100.1
99.5
100.1
102 ,*9
103 .*4
103.* 5
103 -*2
4^
5ioi
4^99
(HJ5!62
1963
Februai*y« . . . * . *
March
April
May
juLv* . . t ... .
August
September. . . ,.,
Peceirib^'iN ......
36^95
38 '.05
4o!66
a. '26
99.7
99.6
99.0
99.1
98.8
98.4
98.8
99.5
99.4
99.0
99.1
98.7
104.2
104.8
104.7
104.6
5166
s.'oi
s!6i
5^66
1964
February
March
April.*
\
, ....
May
June * * T T r ......
JUly
Auffuat * . . . * . . . .
September . . » * * •
October
*..
EJ42!55
a43.*35
97.9
97.8
98.3
97.5
r97.5
r9S.O
P98.0
104^2
0104.9
au!30
a45*.40
Pacftnfber* . . i t * .
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,1* page ii.
4^99
4^99
29
Basic Data
Toble 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 196) TO PRE$ENT~Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by (H"| * the reverse is
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14) 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; np", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
82. Federal 83- Federal 84. Federal
cash surplus
cash payments cash receipts from (+), or
to public
public
deficit (-)
Year and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
95. Surplus
( ) or
+,
deficit ( )
-,
Fed. income
and product
account
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
92. Military 99. New
orders,
prime contract awards defense
to U.S. bus- products
iness firms
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1961
January* . . . .
...
February
•
March
April
ffey
June
July
AugUft, ..,,»,.,
September
October* . . . .
...
Nnvpiribef*- » t - T . T
December* t . - » . .
95.5
95.4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106,5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106.5
104.3
94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101.7
-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11.1
-8.8
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6
115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2
101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
144
0.
111,2
110.1
176
0.
107.8
109.0
109.0
-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2
115.3
109.2
114.5
117.2
115.8
110.2
124.7
118.1
121.9
122.3
114.2
122.7
108.6
110.6
108.9
110.2
112.2
111.9
114.9
114.7
113.1
115.1
113.3
118.5
-6.7
+1.4
-5.6
-7.0
-3.6
+1.7
-9.8
-3.4
-8.8
-7.2
-0.9
-4.2
128.6
117.2
120.3
123.2
110.3
120.0
126.9
114.8
123.4
115.3
126.6
105.1
114-4
116.4
-13.8
+6.2
-5.0
+3.4
-5.2
-5.6
-10.5
-.6
6'
-.?
4'
-3 .4
'
-2 .*6
1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
1,390
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,773
3,641
4,065
3,537
3,381
3,727
3,893
3,784
5,344
484
,7
4,296
4,121
4,653
1,944
2,153
1,757
1,910
1,530
1,993
2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281
1.45
2.00
1.48
1.85
1.82
1.73
2.11
1,96
1.92
1.97
1.86
1,82
1,718
1,319
1,435
1,885
1,142
1,246
1,731
1,240
1,044
1,684
1,818
1,158
444
,3
4,181
4,230
446
,8
4,059
4,024
4,864
4,300
3,928
4,553
4,952
3,974
3,073
2,135
2,225
2,062
1,887
1,930
2,017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984
1.99
2,05
2.11
2.24
2.24
2.08
2.07
1.94
1,88
2.09
1.70
2.53
1,565
1,325
1,258
1,304
1,530 ;
1,298
1,255
1,512;
1,221
2,038;
1,125
1,182
4,642
4,253
3,905
4,108
4,601
4,378
4,834
447
,9
4,215
5,176
4,138
4,090
2,343
2,571
2,168
1,973
2,250
2,125
2,506
2,704
2,688
2,224
1,566
2,041
2.89
2.09
2.42
1.97
2.40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
1,071
2,067
1,030
1,516
2,192
(NA)
4,370
5,484
3,731
4,592
491
,4
(NA)
2,337
2,854
1,603
2,529
2,465
(HA)
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
r2.48
r2.13
P3.07
;
1962
February
torch
April
.
May
July
October
November
-4. t*
-4.6
- .9
2 '
-4 ,5
'
1963
January. . »
March....,
April
Ifey. . . . .
....
June
July
Altfniftt . . . . .
....
September ,,...,
October
-.8
4'
i*.
•* *
-1.0
-6!?
1-0.6
1964
February. . . .
...
March....*..
April
May
June .T . . . . .
....
July
August.
S^ptemb^r . . .
...
October*.*.. .
-2.4
-9.2
30
Basic Data
Tablt 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are Indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [M] ; the reverse is
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 )
5 . Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
85. Change in
total U.S.
money supply
93. Free
reserves*
Year and
month
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
(Mil. dol.)
( Percent )
(Percent)
+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419
+0.07
+0.28
+0.28
+0.21
+0.28
+0.21
0.00
+0.21
+0.42
+0.28
+0.55
+0.28
+0.37
+0.79
+0.46
+0.46
+0.64
+0.55
+0.45
+0.50
+0.58
+0.53
+0.71
+0.44
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
0.00
+0.14
+0.21
+0.27
-0.20
+0.07
-0.07
-0.07
-0.14
+0.34
+0.48
+0.41
+0.57
+0.91
+0.91
+0.64
+0.13
+0.51
+0.38
+0.34
+0.38
+0.71
+0.87
+0.95
+375
+301
+269
+313
+247
+138
+161
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209
+0.27
+0.27
+0.34
+0.20
+0.27
+0.40
+0.53
+0.13
+0.26
+0.46
+0.79
-0.20
+0.69
+0.69
+0.76
+0.48
+0.48
+0.63
+0.71
+0.66
+0.54
+0.73
+1.15
+0.34
r+171
r+91
+98
+162
r+78
+118
p+135
+0.39
0.00
+0.26
+0.32
-0.13
+0.71
p+0.71
+0.83
+0.45
+0.37
+0.44
+0.30
+0.81
F+0.73
UO. Total
private
borrowing
111. Corporate
gross savings
(Annual rate,
million dollars)
(Annual rate,
(Annual rate,
million dollars] billion dollars)
112. Change,
business
loans
1961
fferch
April
May
June
July
AUffU£»t
October* • * * * . . .
1962
January
February
March
April
May
july. . ,
Septemt er . * * . . .
October
November
19^3
January
March
April
Jfey
June * . » • » « » . » . .
July
^September ......
November
29,352
26,580
33,864
32,072
41,844
32,308
42,632
37,304
44,848
36,224
51,340
36,668
46,344
35,108
51,416*
38,628
46,188
37,376
54,824
39,700
55,208
41,920
61,556
42,328
56,352
40,920
•(itt)
(NA)
+0.54
-0.77
+0.92
-0.37
-0.31
-1.50
+2.18
+1.00
+0.56
+0.01
-0.01
+1.72
+2.90
+1.51
+2.23
+2.09
+2.09
+2.77
+2.66
+3.85
+2.82
+2.82
+2.28
+0.95
+2.26
+1.01
+1.01
+1.57
+3.X8
+1.74
+1.97
+2.03
+2.94
+4.67
+6.10
+5.34
1964
March*. . *
April
May
June t r , * . . , * t . .
July
,. . ,
October
November
December. . . . . .
+2.26
+3.05
+0.05
+1.81
r*5.6Q
r+3.88
+3.84
Basic Data
31
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by f>Tl ; the reverse is
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4 )
5 . Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA1, not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance— Continued
Year and
month
113. Change,
consumer
installment
debt
114. Treasury
bill rate*
115. Treasury
bond yields*
116. Corporate
bond yields*
117. Municipal
bond yields*
118. Mortgage
yields*
j
(Annual rate,
billion dollars)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1961
January
jferch
April
(fey
June
July
August
September
October. ......*
1962
January
March
April
July
August
October
November
1963
January
February
March
AprH
May
JUly
AUFUflt i t . . . . . . .
October
November* **....
1964
January
February
March
April
Jfey
June . * * T . , * . . * ,
July
Aufruet . ........
September t * . . * »
October
-0.36
-0.89
+0.07
-2.09
+0.04
+0.30
+0.10
+1.01
+0.78
+2.03
+2.65
+3.98
2 ,,30
2.41
2.42
2.33
2.29
2.36
2.27
2.40
2.30
2.35
2.46
2.62
3.89
3.81
3.78
3.80
3.73
3.88
3.90
4.00
4.02
3.98
3.98
4.06
4.63
4.43
4.36
4.56
4-61
4.73
4-74
4.75
4.69
4.45
4.48
4.56
3.40
3.31
3.45
3.50
3.43
3.52
3.52
3.52
3.53
3.42
3.41
3.47
6.00
5.89
5.82
5.77
5.74
5.72
5.68
5.68
5.69
5.70
5.70
5.69
+2.23
+3.12
+3.74
+5.82
+5.04
+4.67
+4.49
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+5.82
2.75
2.75
2.72
2.74
2.69
2.72
2.94
2.84
2.79
2.75
2.80
2.86
4.08
4.09
4.01
3.89
3.88
3.90
4.02
3.98
3.94
3.89
3.87
3.87
4.55
4-54
4.42
4-31
4.26
4.30
4.41
4.39
4.28
4.27
4.23
4.28
3.34
3.21
3.14
3.06
3.11
3.26
3.28
3.23
3.11
3.02
3.04
3.07
5.69
5.68
5.65
5.64
5.60
5.59
5.58
5.57
5.56
5.55
5.54
5.53
+5.82
+5.94
+5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+5.83
+6.11
+5-77
+4.09
+6.37
+4.60
+5-52
2.91
2.92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3.00
3.H
3.32
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52
3.89
3.92
3.93
3.97
3.97
4.00
4.01
3.99
4.04
4.07
4,11
4.H
4.22
4.25
4.26
4.35
4-35
4.32
4.34
4.33
4.40
4.36
4.42
4.49
3.10
3.15
3.05
3;10
3.11
3.21
3.22
3.13
3.20
3.20
3.30
3.27
5.52
5,48
5.47
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
5-45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
+5.14
+6.95
+6.29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
(NA)
3.53
3.53
3.55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.48
4.15
4.H
4.18
4.20
4-16
4.13
4.13
4.49
4.38
4.45
4.49
4-48
4.49
4.43
3.22
3.14
3.28
3.28
3.20
3.20
3.18
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.46
December. ......
32
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Seriec are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted sorter are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by BO; the reverse is
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification fl
orUy and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The !lr indicates
(l
!l
revised; p", preliminary; "e , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
Year and
month
89. Excess, 81. Consumer
receipts (+) prices
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments
(1957-59=
100)
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.)
86. Exports 87. General
imports,
excluding
military aid total
shipments, •
total
(Mil. dol.)
94. Construction
contracts,
total
value
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders , durable goods
industries
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations ,
manufacturing
(1957-59=
100)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
103.9
104.0
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5
108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119
43.01
42.94
42.52
42.88
42.95
43.06
43.43
43.85
43.86
44.11
44.52
45.17
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.3
105.4
105.4
105.3
105.5
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138
45.80
46,42
45.75
45.41
44.95
44.58
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09
106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106,7
106,9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
4.8
70
46.68
107.8
107.6
107.7
107.9
108.0
108.1
(NA)
147
143
140
138
138
138
(NA)
47*07
4.4
76
47.80
4.4
88
r49.22
r49.78
P50.94
88. Merchandise trade
balance
(col. 86
minus 8?)
1961
1,622.7
1,711.6
1,750.7
1,661.5
1,585.1
1,581.9
1,688.5
1,688.9
1,678.4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8
1,161.4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152.0
1,152.9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5
+461.3
+561.8
+587,8
+509.5
+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3
1,668.3
1,809.3
1,672.0
1,795.4
1,761.7
1,835.6
1,748.3
1,702.5
1,907.9
1,542.8
1,724.6
1,838.7
1,326.5
1,319.8
1,341.7
1,365.0
1,404.1
1,350.7
1,346.6
1,345.9
1,471.4
1,312.1
1,424.9
1,376.5
+341.8
+489.5
+330.3
+430.4
+357.6
+484.9
+401.7
+356.6
+436.5
+230.7
+299.7
+462.2
984.8
2,117.5
1,960.4
1,912.7
May
1,892.6
1,784.7
July.
1,823.0
1,894.6
August. « . . * . . . .
1,979.6
fieptffwib^'r 1 1 ...»
October *
1,946.4
1946
,4.
November* . . .
...
Peceniber
2,049.4
1964
January
2,037.3
February
•
2,028.7
March*
2,077.5
April
2,046.0
May
2,052.1
June
2,004.3
July
(NA)
Auffuetr. .........
September
October*
November . . . .
...
December
,
1,091.6
1,497.4
1,486.7
1,417.2
1,420.2
1,420.5
1,457.5
1,508.3
1,450.4
1,458.8
1,471.9
1,480.0
-106.8
+620.1
+473.7
+495.5
+472.4
+364.2
+365.5
+386,3
+529.2
+487.6
+472.7
+569.4
1,421.8
1,445.3
1,522.9
1,542.1
1,548.1
1,505.5
(NA)
+615.5
+583.4
+554.6
+503.9
+504.0
+498.8
(NA)
February.
Marsh
April
May
juiv
September
October* . . . .
...
-486
^1
-700
-1,231
6.68
6*.55
6 '5
.8
6!53
1962
February
March
April.,
May
June
July
October
-748*
-440
-334
-681
6!82
6 '8
.1
6.87
7. *29
1963
February
March
1
r-1,062
r-1,295
r-153
r-134
r-75
p-789
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
?!o6
7^53
8. '62
8' 75
.
8!6
9
(NA)
33
Basic Data
Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSIKESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by GT) ; the reverse is
*.
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14> 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the, back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
International comparisons of industrial production
47. United
States,
industrial
production
Year and
month
January
torch
April
May
July
August
,.
».
October
».
November* T - . T11
121. OECD.1
European
countries,
industrial
production
125. West
Germany,
industrial
production
126. France, 127. Italy,
industrial industrial
production
production
128. Japan,
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
103
103
104
107
109
111
112
113
112
114
115
116
104
105
105
107
107
109
109
111
112
112
114
114
109
110
110
111
110
113
113
111
110
109
109
109
117
119
119
120
119
120
120
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
126
124
121
122
121
124
123
124
128
115
116
116
116
117
117
118
118
119
119
119
122
130
134
134
134
136
136
138
137
140
145
149
148
155
154
158
159
162
165
169
172
172
175
176
177
115
116
117
118
118
118
119
119
120
119
120
119
113
115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119
120
120
108
110
111
110
113
114
.113
114
115
110
113
110
122
124
123
124
125
124
125
126
127
127
128
127
126
129
125
128
129
130
130
131
132
132
133
132
122
123
124
123
124
123
125
125
126
128
128
126
149
151
149
151
153
147
151
149
150
153
158
160
182
178
181
181
182
180
179
180
181
179
179
178
120
121
122
123
124
126
126
125
125
126
126
127
120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131
110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
130
133
135
136
3.36
129
128
132
133
133
139
133
135
135
139
141
137
127
125
116
129
133
134
130
130
136
137
136
138
158
r!55
rl6l
rl65
rl65
166
rl63
r6
!6
171
r7
!1
173
r7
!0
179
184
184
191
r9
!0
191
203
r202
207
r?.ll
128
128
129
130
131
132
p!33
133
134
133
136
p!32
(NA)
r2
!3
123
123
122
p!22
(NA)
138
138
r4
!0
r3
!8
p4
!0
(NA)
141
143
r4
!6
139
149
P143
(NA)
140
139
139
11
4
140
PHI
(NA)
172
168
173
169
pl66
(NA)
217
226
223
224
p225
(NA)
(1957-59=
100)
1961
123. Canada, 122. United
industrial Kingdom,
production
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
1962
March
April
May
June
July
September »,,.,.
October
1963
January
February
March
April
May
July
August
October
1964
January
February
March
April....
Jfcy
July
Anoryfl-h. . . . .
....
October
Nov^riber* <• * * » • *
^-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
;>H
r217
Analytical Measures
34
Table ^..DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
July
July
1953
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948
May
1960
1957
Apr.
1953
Feb.
1960
Apr.
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
12
1
7
1
3
1
4
1
22
1
•* •
2
2
X
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
18
0
" 3
19
16
2
14
2
1
3
2
1
3
4
11
1
2
2
3
1
1
4
1
"i
i
x
12
1
1
2
1
3
2
1
4
•* V
23
0
20
23
0
2
19
21
*18
0
23
0
23
4
1
1
NBER BOUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
2
1
* **
1
1
'*2
3
3
11
27
1
3
'*2
3
1
2
1
5 months
4
1
2
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
11
9
2
1
"i
4
4
4
2
3
3
3
6
11
36
11
36
11
27
11
55
3
**5
2
3
11
45
11
27
6th month before business cycle peak
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was- reached
May
1948
Jan.
1953
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
*i
**4
Current expansion
Apr,
1964
May
1964
June
' 16
94
July
1964
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
6
1
7 months
5
4
3
2
montha . * *
months
months: . . .
months
*...*
4
2
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
2
1
1
1B
6
*
2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
2
19
16
17
1
1
1
"l
1
4
4
4
2
4
8
8
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
10
1
2
5
1
*1
3
1
4
15
27
"l
1
2
2
"9
5
5
4.
/*
2
23
4
23
9
23
39
23
22
23
9
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
5 months
4 months
3 months ••
1
4
2
4
*».*•
1 month . . * *
.
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
1
5
11
45
2
3
6
11
55
"i
5
3
•f•
2
3
11
27
11
27
11
10
91
3
8
11
73
1
4
6
11
55
1
1
"
9
11
82
All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from the distribution.
1
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks wore disregarded in this distribution.
35
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Percent
D1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.--21 Indus.
(3-mo. interval)
D6. New orders, dur. goods indus.--36 Indus
(5-mo. interval)
D 11. Newly approved capital appropriations
17 indus, ,NICB
3-Q mterval,*-*-»l-Q interval]
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reportin
higher profits-700 cos. (1-Q interval)
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks--82 indus
(3-mo. interval)
D23. Industrial materials prices—13 indus. mtls
(5-mo. interval)
D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.--47 areas
(inverted. 5-mo. interval)
1948
1949 1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3,* page 5.
1955
1956
1957
1958 1959
1960
1961
1962 1963
1964
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Roughly C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s
(Nov.)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (F.b.)
P
T
Percen
D41. Employees in nonogr. esfablishmcnts-30 Indus
(1-mo. interval)
D47. Industrial productlon-24 indus
(1-mo. interval)
D58. Wholesale prices, mffd. goods—23 indus. ;1=
{5-mo.interval)
*
D54. Sales of retail stares-24 types of stores
(5-mo. interval)
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955 1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Analytical Measures
37
CHART 3 b DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Au«.)
T
(Moy) (Fab.)
P_ T
D35, Net soles, all mfrs.--800 cos,
(percent--4-Q interval)
New orders, dur. goods mfrs.-400 cos.
(percent—4-Q interval)
^
Carloadings--19 mfrd. commodity groups
(percent-4-Q interval)
D48. Change in total carloadings
(millions of cors-4-Q interval)
D61. Now plant and equipment expend.—17-22 Indus. ;':".,.
(percent-1-Q interval)
1948 1949 1950
1951 1952 1953 1954
1955 1956 1957 1958
1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
Data are centered within intervals. Latest data areas follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 {July 1964)
D48 .(June 1964)
D6T (May 1964)
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
Latest interval shown
Actual
Anticipated
2nd Q 1963 - 2nd Q 1964
3rd Q 1962- 3rd Q'l963
4th Q 1963- 1st Q 1964
4th Q 1963- 4th Q 1964
3 r d Q 1963 - 3rd Q 1964
2nd Q 1964- 3rd Q 1964
1964
38
Analytical Measures
Toble 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT
Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within'intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span] 4-quartor figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed, on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures;
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. 'Seasonally adjusted components are used exeept in indexes 1)19, which
requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for moat of
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes
Bl. Average workweek,
manufac tur ing
(21 industries)
Year and
month
1-month
interval
1961
January
March
April
May
June
,.
JU]y
September
October
November
*
D6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable, goods
industries (36 industries)
3-month
interval
1-month
interval
5-month
interval
95.2
71.4
54.8
81.0
45.2
90.5
64.3
73.8
38.1
85.7
66.7
23.8
66.7
95.2
71.4
69.0
90.5
78.6
88.1
54.8
97.6
85.7
81.0
26.2
33.3
48.6
66,7
62.5
63.9
66.7
36.1
63.9
47.2
55.6
61.1
58.3
52.8
72.2
72.2
72.2
77.8
83.3
66.7
69.4
62.5
72.2
70.8
80.6
14.3
73.8
73.8
76.2
21.4
28.6
35.7
47.6
81.0
7.1
59.5
59.5
31.4
59.5
88.1
78.6
40.5
21.4
21.4
59.5
35.7
38.1
31.0
73.8
63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
63.9
68.1
66.7
41.7
48.6
37.5
36.1
52.8
52.8
52.8
75.0
77.8
52.4
73.8
40.5
16.7
81.0
47.6
45.2
42.9
66.7
57.1
21.4
83.3
71.4
64.3
31.0
52.4
54.8
78.6
47.6
59.5
64.3
47.6
66.7
7.1
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
66.7
75.0
73.6
55.6
56.9
50.0
0.0
85.7
28.6
78.6
r35.7
r21.4
P47.6
85.7
50.0
92.9
r40.5
r40.S
P38.1
55.6
4.
44
58.3
61.1
r44.4
r52.8
P55.6
Dll, Newly approved
c ap i t a 1 approp r ia t io n 8 ,
NICE (1?" industries)
3 -quart or
interval
1-quarter
interval
53
59
59
65
68
68
44
63
65
a
29
71
79
§3
59
*76
41
53
59
*53
*59
'8
6
*47
*59
44
(Ml)
1962
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
Octob er
November
1963
February
March
April
May. . . „
July
August
September
October
December* ..*...
1964
January
February
March
April
May
„
July
September
Noveratbe** * „ r » » t T
a. 7
45.8
62.5
54.2
69.4
77.8
66.7
72.2
r6l.l
r55.6
p6l.l
(NA)
Analytical Measures
39
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued
'ercent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month;
3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which
requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA, not available.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued
Year and
month
034. Profits,
mfg., FNCB
(around 700
c orporations )
1-quarter
interval
D19. Index of stock prices,
500 "common stocks
(80 industries)1
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22d
(47 areas)
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
interval
5-month
interval
;
1-month
interval
5 -month
interval
1961
47
torch, ......«.*
ipril
'60
fey
fulv. ..*
*58
)ctober
*56
)ecember
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1
96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55-5
62.2
72.6
52.4
42.3
76.9
84.6
73.1
53.8
46.2
53.8
46. 2.
61.5
38.5
15.4
61,5
61.5
76.9
76.9
76.9
61.5
61.5
46.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
69.2
53.8
59.6
31.9
80.9
40.4
48.9
58.5
51.1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
23.4
57.4
59.6
61.7
66.0
68.1
66.0
61.7
93.6
93.6
68.1
63.8
91.5
26.2
74.4
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34.8
6.7
98.8
84.8
39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1
31.1
72.6
90.2
98.8
76.9
38.5
38.5
15.4
42.3
26,9
23.1
34.6
61.5
53.8
84.6
66.7
46.2
61.5
23.1
23.1
23.1
15.4
30.8
23.1
53.8
66.7
75.0
69.2
57.4
83.0
46.8
46.8
40.4
14.9
68,1
57.4
44.7
46.8
72.3
27.7
74.5
51.1
66.0
31.9
21.3
34.0
31.9
38.3
78.7
48.9
22.3
63.8
97.6
79.3
43.8
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
97.6
93.8
91,2
90.0
88.0
62.5
54-4
60.2
74-4
56.4
50.6
68.4
58.3
58.3
50.0
38.5
50.0
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
76.9
69.2
53.8
61.$
61.5
58.3
58,3
46.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
73.1
76.9
76.9
84.6
23.4
85.1
31.9
44.7
48.9
70.2
42.6
48.9
44.7
61.7
31.9
34.0
69.1
48.9
48.9
85.1
54.3
63.8
68.1
70.2
40.4
31.9
68.1
48.9
74.7
64.7
78.2
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
73.7
81.0
82.1
77.9
57.7
70.5
61.5
57.7
38.5
61.5
38.5
50.0
65.4
2
61.5
69.2
61.5
53.8
53.8
61.5
'61.5
85.1
12.8
66.0
75.5
51.1
51.1
59.6
1962
54
r
ebruary
'4?
ipril
ufav
fuly
*48
Dctober
'56
}ecember. T T - ' - -
1963
50
tei-ch
ftprtl
*59
fey
*56
Tulv
August
October. . . ; . . . .
*55
1964
January. . » » . . . »
57
fferch
April
60
fay
July
51.1
83.0
78.7
55.3
70.2
[September
December
lr
The diffusion index is based on 82 components, January 1961 to February 1963;
on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; on 79 components, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter.
18 components and 5 composites, representing an additional 23 components, are shown in the direction-of-rchange table (table 6 .
)
2
Average for August 17, 18, and 19.
Analytical Measures
40
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continoed
Fereent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals; 1-month figures are placed on latent month;
3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quasrter flgurei
are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figure:
are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in Indexes 1)19, whUO
requires no adjustment, and D34j which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most G:
the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "MA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes
Year and
month
D41. Number of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
(30 industries)
D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)
D54. Sales of retail
stores (24 types
of stores)
D58. Index of whole sale
prices (23 manufacturing industries)
5 -month
interval
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
1-month
interval
5-month
interval
1-month
interval
45.0
33.3
61.7
56.7
36.7
88.3
70,0
70.0
56.7
71.7
81.7
63.3
15.0
40.0
43.3
78.3
85.0
90.0
90.0
66.7
80.0
80.0
78,3
76.7
45.8
52.1
66.7
83.3
77.1
91.7
79^2
83.3
45.8
72.9
83.3
56.3
37,5
62.5
81,3
83.3
87.5
83.3
100.0
79.2
79.2
75.0
87.5
41.7
58.3
41.7
60.4
22.9
79.2
77.1
60.4
68.8
39.6
83.3
87.5
60.4
43.8
43.8
64.6
62.5
64.6
56.3
83.3
87.5
95.8
81.3
83.3
83.3
39.1
47.8
41.3
65.2
45.7
37.0
50.0
56.5
60.9
39.1
47.8
56.5
43.5
34,8
39.1
43.5
5^.2
41.3
41.5
47.8
54.3
45.7
50.0
60.9
55.0
80.0
71.7
86.7
71.7
55.0
56.7
46.7
36.7
45.0
33.3
43.3
78.3
88.3
88.3
80.0
73.3
65.0
51.7
38.3
35.0
26.7
28.3
43.3
29.2
83.3
83.3
75.0
83.3
62.5
54.2
58.3
79.2
29.2
54.2
41.7
50.0
66.7
91.7
83.3
70.8
79.2
68.8
79.2
41.7
62.5
45.8
68.8
58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
05.4
93.8
89.6
70.8
81.3
79.2
70.8
54.2
95.8
95.8
81.3
79.2
69.6
43,5
58.7
45.7
43.5
39.1
41.3
54.3
34.8
45.7
39.1
§4.3
63.0
63.0
58.7
52.2
47.8
43.5
30.4
41.3
34.8
23.9
30,4
63.3
48.3
83.3
66.7
85.0
61.7
75.0
48.3
45.0
65.0
53.3
65.0
71.7
83.3
78.3
75.0
60.0
50.0
48.3
40.0
63.3
48.3
66.7
72.9
79.2
54-2
79.2
66.7
70.8
70.8
56.3
60.4
58.3
72.9
70.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3
87.5
85.4
79.2
77.1
75.0
79.2
66.7
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
81.3
56.3
45.8
58.3
62.5
75.0
66.7
70.8
54.2
68.8
58.3
87.5
39.1
43.5
37.0
41.3
58.7
63.0
47.8
58.7
58.7
76.1
69.6
60.9
34.8
28,3
45.7
50.0
52.2
52.2
69.6
73.9
.71.7
69.6
73.9
71.7
73.3
75.0
85.0
rSO.O
rSO.O
P78.3
66.7
79.2
70.8
83.3
70.8
r60.4
P77.1
83.3
83.3
91.7
r87.5
r83.3
p87.5
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
r66.7
r68.8
P50.0
81.2
79.2
r3l.2
r91.7
P70.8
58.7
63.0
45.7
63.0
43.5
r45.7
p65.2
67.4
69.6
54.3
r56.5
P50.0
1961
Iferch
April
May
July
August* *
1962
February
March
April
Mfeiv
July
AlUmSt,. - - - - » r t t
Spp'tember ..».,,
November
1963
January
March
April
Meur
July
August
September. , , , , t
October
December
1964
February, ..*...
March
April „
May
June
July
September *..**.
a. 7
70.0
43.3
83.3
76.7
63.3
60.0
r68.3
P73.3
52. a
Analytical Measures
41
Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES; JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT
ercent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. lfr" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available.
Year and
month
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
( 0 companies)
80
4-quarter
interval
Actual
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
( 0 companies)
40
4-quarter
interval
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
D6l. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
Antici- Change in
pated total ( 0 )
00
Actual
Anticipated
1961
28.1
*88
*82
*86
r73 ,*7
89^5
*86
*78
*82
63 '2
.
89.5
*88
*76
*84
57^9
9.?
4"
-67
*76
80
*74
'4
?
63^2
89.*5
-96
*72
'4
?
*71
70
42 !l
68^4
-66
*74
*82
'6
?
*76
63 .*2
63 '2
.
+28
*76
*80
*77
'6
7
73*7
78^9
+38
*74
*80
*76
*76
(NA)
68^4
+A4
*82
*84
*82
*80
78.9
+39
'8*4
*85
82
%
84
73^7
-35
*87
*84
68 "4
.
p-27
*86
50,0
+62
*80
75.0
+125
81
71 i9
71.9
*82
7.6
5'
71.9
+79
50.0
75i6
73.7
68 .*8
65 ".6
66^4
65 '6
.
40.6
*78
68.*8
46 .*9
*73
62.5
-28
*83
65^6
6 '6
5 .
89 '5
.
62^5
68 ".8
36 is
53!l
65.6
'8
?
46^9
59^4
*72
*74
March
April
May
*82
37.5
56^2
*72
*84
July.. . . *
.
September* * - - •> *
1962
torch
MOV
July
December - 1963
March
April. . . .
.
Nbv
July
October
1964
5.6
0'
April
May
July..
....
...
November
68 is
Analytical Measures
42
Q eg- inp
Aojfl— ttnp
0)
f*a>
^. OQ—A*1&^
•H
des-^dv
S^ny—ji^
to
Ttir-q^J
unp-uTip
a
J&Bw-oea
1
ta
^+
+ + + +
1 ( 1
+ + + + 1 1 + ++++
1 + 1 1 1 1+
4 1 1 1 4 1
14414
^0+
+ 1 + '
l + l
+ + + + l l + + l + t
1 + 1 1 + + 1
+ + + + +I
I + + ++
qaj-dog
a.
o
UtJp— StXTf
o9Q~ T^f
Q)
!+'+ + +
Q>+
+ + + +
I++
+ + + + +I
+ '
1
' + + +
^ l
+ + + +
l < +
4 i O + t + l l + t +
+ + I + I + 1
+ 1 +
I O + I + + I 4 - I I I
1 + 4 1 1 1 +
I + + + 1
1
)
l
1
I++
+
0)
4
l
l
+
+
4
l
l +
AO^-unp
>-
*OO-^BW
S1
Z)
H
6
MJI
) + + )
deg-ady
ojl
I
Snv-^
-i
d
•s-\
JCU^— ^OQ
i
LU
vD
jdY—AO^J
5
§
e
LU
CO
0)
ftfl
0 1
1 1 4 1
I
I
!
t
i
l
+ + + i i + ( + | | +
+ 4 +
1 4 1 1 1 + 4 + 1 + 1
+ + | | | |
I + +
|;
S
4 + 1 + 1
ts
+ 4 4 + 4 4 + 1 1 1
i + + + + t +
i ) i | + +
+ + ) ! (
o
o
09CI-AON
AQN-q-oo
^oo-das
o
d9S-§nv
H-
g
LU
CL
O
SW-I^P
o
CO
«
inp-unp
unp-^'G^j
^"G^I— jdy
Jdv-a^w
a^j-qsj[
-p
O
a.
1
qaj-UBf
UBP-09Q
09Q-AON
\O+
+ 1 1 1
^ l
l l + l
^ l
+
^+
+ + +I
1
1
1
+ 1 +
I
I
I
l + l
+ + 1
I
+
I
I
+
I
+ + + + I +
|
+
i
i
i
i
+ + + |
+ i + i i i + | + + |
0 +
1 + 4-
1 0 +
1 +
1
I I + + ++I
+ + + +
+ + ( + +
1
1
1
+
1
1
U-
fp\l
I I + +
I I I
+ | | + ( l + | | ( +
+ | | + + l +
^+
4- + + +
+ + +
1+ + + + I I + O + I
O+ + + + + +
d^s-Sny
3nv-irip
[^+
+ + + +
1 1 4 -
4 . ( + + l + l + + l +
^np-unp
(J
Jfr
i + i j - i t + + + | +
+ + + + ) +
Q «'
C'j
1S
| + ( + |
'j
^OQ-d9g
X
+ + I + I
SI
AON-%OO
1
l
+ + o + © + l +
i + i + i + i
+
l
H+
| | + | i |
|
( + ( + + )
) ( + + )
| + + | + + j + + | + + + + | | o +
+ I + + I I
| + ) + +
(
|
(
+
l
(
|
t
1+ + + 1
l
+
1 1 ) 1 4 ,
(
+
+
d ,£
8*
P^ y
o *•
1
1
1
)
+ 1 1
CO
•^
a
'C T
o
o
f-H
36 industry components
1
Q) >r
CO
t
«i
•P
H
'OHOrHtatDO)
!
-••^»a)** |",'cJa}
* ' C *
^
*
'(d*
£
S) E
li <r
°l
M1^
•H
M
It
'
IN ;>cmc;> t,uwrufNcrN i i A«L> rcKLCJN I ur iCKlt> KI5JNL>: JULY 1963 I U PKtbtN T-Continoed
Tobfe O.-UIKCL. i IUN ur
(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
3-month spans
1-month spans
1964
1963
1963
1964
23 industry components1
•-3
1
<J
1
CO
O
1
1
S£
|cd
(Ujsiciiji^ ^ ^ ( u o o o
- j E i - ( S < i J S l ~ 3 | ~ 5 < t ; W O 2 Q
1
1
1 1 1
1
1
1 1 I
1 1
Q
1
1
•~J
3 J (U cj
^ ^ <; to o
O
a Q i - 3 f c S < ; S » - j
| 1
s < c o o E :
2
»-3
1
0 CQ O
QJ y
•<
1
1
1
o
i)
1
1
2 Q
1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 11! !
11 I i I§
29 75 77 45 45 68 75 65 78 76 53 35 90
62 54 60 74 56 51 68 74 81 82 78 58 70
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - , 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 1 - 4 - 4 -
+ + +
Food composite
+ -+-
o +
-
+
+ • * • - _
_
_
_
_
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4- 4- 4_ 4- 4-
-
4-
-
_
_ _
- +
4- 4-
-
Publishing
-
Steel
Metctl fabricating
H
-
+
-H
*-
-t-
-
- +
+ +
4-
4-
-
+
• * • - - -
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
•
••
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
+
4-
-
4-
+
- -
+ + - -
44-
-
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
* +
+ 4 - 4 - +
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
+
+
4-
-
+
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
_
+
!!:;+*
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-4-
t-
- -
+ +
+
4-
-
i
+ +
4-
4-
4-
Automobiles
Telephone companies
o -*• + --.
o
-
44-
44-
+
o
+
+
4-
4-
_
4-4-
t-
4-
4-
4-
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - - falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
^•The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 42
Based on 80 industries to August 1963; on 79 industries, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter.
O
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D?3) Jndcx of industrial Materials Prices
5-month spans
1-month spans
1963
a.
1^
^ 31
O
I
1
111
IS
0
&
8
c
J>
s
II §
i I
Jt. 9
>
'
<
r-t
1
c
1
i—i
rf
54 54 54 77 69 54 62 58 38 62 38 50 65 62
All industrial materials
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
_
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4- 4- 4- 4 - 4 - 4-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
Copper scrap (ib. )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib. )
7i «/»
f1X ^
4-
Burlap (yd )
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
tnn<;
flH 1
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (ib. )
Tallow (Ib. )
§
M
?
i i
0
-P
0
>
0
0
CJ
c"jQ
S-i
1*
b n C ( H & 2 C L - P
!>
O
§ m a } f t c ? 3 9 0 o o o < D
> i » ^ S < i ) s ) ~ 5 ) ~ 3 ^ M O s ; Q
i
o
i
g
i i A;&3s 0 - 3p o > ® a i ix© b i f ti C >J > P - jr -2(
G
£ £ % £ £ £
« S ! M O S Q
t
~ 5 l i H S ^ S
)
~ 5
1
^
46 42 46 54 73 77 77 85 69 62 54 54 62 62
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
_
O
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
-
4-
-
-
-
-
-
o
+
+
+
-_-
+
V
_
4_
+
-
+
S-
't>
O
+
4-
4-
-
-
-
.^T*
-
4-
+
+
+
4-
O*
^.
- - 4 - 4 - - * -
+
+
o +
4 - 4 - H - 4 -
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
-
4-
44-
4-
-
4-
-
+
4-
t
4-
0
_
4-
4-
_
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
Unol
ft
rH
0
i
0
I
o
4-
Sep-Oct
bfl
Aug-Sep
r-{
1964
1963
1964
Sep-Oct
13 industrial isaterials components
+
-*-+
£L
+ + ---
+ + +
-t4-
K3»
""
. . . -- -S
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted (except for all- industry totals) by the Bureau of the Census before the
direction of change is determined. NA = not available.
Average for August 17, 18, and 19.
fl
JJ
in ji_r\ii_ J
i uuie u.—u'mt.i- i iwrt wr
-LIM I Ul—JUIMLJ rujino.—jui_ i—i/uo i w i
Labor market |
size rank
f
(D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
5-month spans
1-month spans
1963
26 area components
H
ho a. -P
>
o
C
3
»-3
f-H
2
*-3
-P
O
O
>
5
25
3 3 # 8 ai a
i t i i i
47 labor market areas^
*
»-
bD
S
<$
ft
0)
CO
1963
1964
O
H
^ _ 3 £ £ 3 g 3 3 3 £ < S : i
£
C ^ 3
fH
h
>i
C
r-l
tlD
ft
-R
>
bo ft -P
1964
>
o
C ^ 3 f H ^ l > , d r H t j O O
- P > O
t
^ 3 CD o o 0)
) d
<
D
^ ^ £i §i • i ^ i ^ i^ i5 * 8 ^ ^ 7 1 "? <? ^ •=? (o - Ja O ^ g sf jt j r^ f HP a 3i ^ ^ ^D c On O ^( Q
i C ft f* f-t > > C r - t l il D ia - P > ^» fn FH >> fl H A jf ^ ^ i i i ^ i i i o i ^
i
i i
0
p l 0 0 0 ( D ( f l ( D r f f t d B ^
43 49 45 62 32 34 85 13 66 76 51 51 60
_ _ _ + _ _
£
5* j
1§
< s j c O O S Q h > p ^ S < i J S
|
- 3
|
- 3
54 64 68 70 40 32 68 49 51 83 79 55 70
_ _ _ + _ _
NORTHEAST REGION
_ +
7
16 Buffalo
1 M-Ufi-rV
1
I New York.
21
+
Philadelphia*
*
8 Pittsburgh**
23
- + _ + + + + - - + + - +
+ - + - - + - * - - - + +*- +
_ _ _ + _ + + - + + + + +
_ 4-
_
_
- + + + -
_ + - +
-
+ •*•-
+ -h -*•
+ - -
-I-
+
+
+
+
_
»
_
-
+ .. + „
_ + _ + _
+ _ _ _ +
- - + - „
-
+ + i- -t- -f _ +
+ - - + •*-_ +
o + - + -
-
+
^f
+ - * • + - _
NORTH CENTRAL REGION
3
18
10
26
5
25
22
15
13
9
Cleveland**
_ + _ + « +
+ - + - - + _ + _ _ _
Knn<3fl<3 fli +v
+
+
_ + + _ - +
- + - + -
+
+
+
+
- +
_ .
- +
+
-
-
+
• ! • - -
+ - -^
+ + _
-»• 4- -
4
+
+
+
+
+
.
+
+
-
+
+
+
_
+
•*•
+
+
- +
-t- + _
_ +
+ + + +
-H
+
+
+
f
-
-
+
-
_
+
_
+
_
_
+
+
- -
t
+ - +
+
+
•*-
+
+
- + + _ -
+
-
+
*
+
-
CO
4+ +
-
+
SOUTH REGION
20 Atlanta
12
17
H
+
-
+
- » - - -
+
_
_
_
+
_
+ +
-
+
-
WEST REGION
2
24 PnTtlnnri
6
19 Seattle*
+
-
+
-
-
-
-
+
-
+
-»*-»•
+
+
-
-
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
-
-
-
+
_
t . ! : ; t ;;;::!:
- = rising; o = unchanged; •*- = falling. Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
*Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in July 1 6 .
94
**Designated by Bureau of Snployment Security as an area of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in July 1 6 .
94
^The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.
O
en
Table 6.-DIRECT10N OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
3-month spans
1-month spans
1963
30 industry components
f-<
bo a, -*->
1963
1964
>
o
5 3 « 8 %a
i i i t i i
5 3 4 » 8 %
C , 0 £ <
fn
X C r - ( b O ( X - P
> 0
3 £ £ < g £ £ 3 $ < S : i £ »
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i
1 1
( u a j a j j a o - i f l ^ r j ^ o j o o
Q ^ t r - S - ^ S ^ ^ ^ W O Z
75 48 45 65 42 70 43 83 77 63 60 68 73
rH
hO
Q. +=
1964
>
O
a- s 5 s ^ %
75 60 50 48 40 63
C ^ ) ^ » ^ > > P ^ t J D O * - P > O
3 £i gi 3 i g i £ i3 i3 £ < B £ £
i
i i i i i
S
O Q - o
Z O ( > 3 t J^ < - « as i S f < 3 t l - ^ '< ^x 3 t O
S U
l O - a
3
! ^
48 73 75 85 30 80 78
•$•
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
•*•
+
— o +
o
+ + +
+ -J-
-
-t-
h
+
-
+
+
+ + + +
-
+
+
+
_
-
- - + +
+
-
+ + o - + +
+ o + o -- +
+ +
t-
-
+
-
-
-
-
-
t + t + + I +
*•-
- + - - + +
+•
+
4*
+ +
O -
-
O
+
+
+
o +
+ +
+ o +
+ •+• o
+
+
+
+ + + +
+
o +
+ + + - - -
+ ° ° + +
+
0
+
0
-
+
+•
+
-*-
+
o
+
+
+
o
•»*
-*-
+
- + +
— — o
+
+
o
o
+ +
+• +
+ +
+
Transportation equipment
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred produc ts
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
+
+
—
+
—
+ + + + + +
Furniture and fixtures
+
+
+
+
o
+ - + * - -
-1-
_
o
+
+
+
0
-
0
0
+
o
o
o o -
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and leather products
+
0
+
_ + o
+
+
+
+ +
+
+
-
+ +
o + -»•
o
+ + .1 1 1 +
o
+ +
t + + + + + ^
o o
-
-
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
+
+
O
-
Minins
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Services and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
+
0
0
- - +
+ - +
O Q -
-
+ + - - _ +
-
o +
O
0
-
- - - - - - o
+ - - -
!-++++ i
+
O -
+ + + o -
-
- + + + + + +
+
+ + + -i- +
-
-
+
+ + + + + +
+
-
0
+
-
+
0
-
+•
0
+
-
-
+ *•
-
o o +
-
-
+ 0
-
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
c
Ht
cn
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
(D47) Index of Industrial Production
1-month spans
1963
bfl
ft
-P
e , o f
t - 3 (
i i
C
> O
,0 Q t ^ (
< > <
>
0
7 rH •? 3 -H $
1 bD CX %
£
•3 3 3 <u o
1964
1963
1964
24- industry components
r-<
3-month spans
c f c > > c : r - i f a o P < - H ' >
^ S - < S ( - 3 | - 3 - < a 3 O S
i i i i i
i i i i
,0 ^i ^ ^ > C « - 4 b O P * - P
d < u . f l i O * . f l i ; 3 r J : J a j o
* . S < S ^ ' - a « a ; c o o
71 71 56 60 58 73 67 79 71 83 71 60 77
o
o
i
>
o
s
iH
^J
ITS
1
FH
SO
3
<5J
1
>»
Q<
Q>
03
1
C
4^
t)
O
1
rH
>
O
&
1
W)
0
W
Q
1
P<
-§*
fi
•?
*?
-3
C ^ i f - i
Vi
>sC*-H
HOft-f
3
>•
0
$
i t i i i i 7
i i i i i
88 85 79 77 75 79 67 83 83 92 88 83 88
DURABLE GOODS
Primary metal products
* • * " *•
••• • •*
+
••
••
•••
-
+
0
+
+
--
o - + +
+
-
+
+
*
- 1I I 'Miscellaneous
+
*. ••«
+
+
-f
+
+
+ -f
+ + + + +
+ + - + + +
+
-
- + + + + +
o + + + -
- NA
+
-h
+ + + +
0
Instruments and related products
+
:::::;
-*•- +
o +
• + +
+ + _ _ _ . NA
+
•
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
NONDURABLE GOODS
Textile mill products
••
« •
»•*•
...
+ + + + + + + + - - +
+
-
+ -
+ -
_ _ _
+ NA
-
+ -
+
f NA NA
+
+
+
+
+
+ + + + 4- - NA
- NA
+
+ _ +
•---•+-*
+ + -
+
-f
+
- + NA
+ - NA
+ NA NA
0
+
t
+
+
::;;:;
+ + + + + + NA
_ + + + + + NA
+ + + + + NA NA
+
-
_ - +
+ _ . NA
+ + NA NA
::::::
+ + + —
+
+ +
+ ~
; ;;o : !
MINERALS
o
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
o e an
a
+ -
-
- +
. NA
+
+ " + " - • -
-
-
--NA
+ + + NA NA
+ -f + + f - NA
o + + + + + NA
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
NA = not available;
^ direction of change is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industrye
are used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 2 . industry components.
4
s
VI
Pr in tine and publishing
Coal
+
+ _ + NA
Analytical Measures
48
i
OOQ-Itlf
(1)
4^
•3
—S-T
0)
dog-^dv
3nv-j*w
^tlp—C^Q^
,*
8
urif-msi1
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m
bl0
p)+. + + + + + + I . + . - * - ! + 1 1 + , + + + + + + +
^ + + + + + + H . + + + + + + J.4, + + , , + + + + + +
A*Bfl-OQ(I
•H
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idlf— AQ PJ
-V
£
jj
m
-"35T+00
qoi-dog
UBf— Sny
o©(j— "[tip
LU
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o
AO|J— UTlp
c^
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deg-jdy
Suy— .iBjsj
tnp-qo^
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to
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TO
00+
^4-
+ + + I
l+l
1
+ I + + + I
1+
+ + + + I
l+l
^+ + . . . + 1 + + , + + + + + + + , , + + I . 1 ,
1
5
^4- 4- i ' + + + + + + + ' + + + 1 +
l o + + o i i +
§
§
0)
^ + 4- + + + + + + +
l+
++
i+ i + + i
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1
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LU
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43
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g , + + + . + + 4 , t + + o + + + +.
. . , + + + + ,
^4- i + 1 + 1 | + +
I++ 1 I+ + + + 4 - I + + + + +
CV+
1
I + Q + +
+
+
++
1
1+
1
1 + +
1+
1
1
1
1
+
31
+ + 4 - + I + I I
+
.
)
+
|
+
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+
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t
.
+
.
0*
H
at
o
5
2
P
•f=j
'd
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s
s
a)
2
aJ
to+ + + + i i + i i
i i I + + + + +
+ + + I + + i i
JfJ 1
I
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
1 1 1 + 4 - 1 1 +
+
+
I
I
+
I
+
+
+ + + + + I Q +
+ 0 + 0 1 + + I
CO
«
I + I + I I I 4 *
^+
^oQ-dag
d39~Bt\v
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sO
s
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,0
tl
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ID
0
43
*oo-das
£
Q)
I+ + + + +I +
03(1 "*AOM
O
§
4^
l l + + l + . 0 + + + + + l ^ +
AOf{— ^OQ
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9
43
O
CH
O
£i
Q
0)
g
tu
Q)
t
£
bb
5
.ore components
O
(-
rH
,-(
! : : :::::::: : : : : : : : : £ : : : : : : :
: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 53 : : : : : : :
II
1
1
1
§
w
r°H
•H
J
0)
5
f
•tH d J . W <o
W •
W L Q . O W W 4 J
o) <u • +> a>
^ ^ ^
O O W
W
M
S ^.
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«£!
W O
?J
P -H
O
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W O r H C < l > W t J a )
O
ro
^ d
O Q ) r H
O H
w i T fdrcH
o d
II
0
Ocrf+S^iO^i433
ftqJWWaJg-Pd
a)ftFHQ><D
ott>
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i t
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Q > C . H W
M
M O -P
'H
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tooie o.-umcv, i IUN ur
in iCKiCi UJMruNtNJi ANU PtKLtN I Ul- >tKIti KliJNfc: JULY IV63 TU PKtbbNT-Continuea
(058) fndex of Wholesale Prices, All Manufacturing
1-month spans
1963
23 manufacturing industries
i-t
WJ
CU
+>
1 3 % 8
C
ri
A) i
3 £ I#
5-month spans
1964
>
o
1963
§ &
C , a f H f H > * C i - t t i 0 a < - ^ > > e j
O l 4 > . f l l Q < j l l ^ 3 ^ ( U O O 4 )
^ f ^ S j ^ S ^ ^ ^ W O S Q
81
3>
sA
Q ' -&s f<oe S < U 2 ' - a ^ > < i ; c ftJO^rJgooo
OO2:
O
C
fi
t*
FH
^ C H t i p C X - P >
48 59 59 76 70 61 59 63 46 63 44 46 65
o o - + — o + - - + - O 0
1964
•S <! W1 Q ^ 9 §
SP S o § 8
^
i
Q)
P4
i
rf
S
i
ft
*«!
}£,
^
S
AH
P 3
*-> »-3
^ O ^ M > » 5 H t i D a * - P > 0
a > < d a a j 3 3 P a > o o a )
^ ^ ^ ^ J ^ H . ^ ^ C O C D S C ,
i t i C ^ Oi OA Di c ir i t iD ' d t tct B pH
i P
p
J
C l
f
: f
l
H
<ijcoo£;Q ~3P^S' iis ~3
3
52 52 70 74 72 70 74 72 67 70 54 56 50
DURABLE GOODS
+ +
-
-
0
-
+
0
+
- 0
-
Nonf errous metals
-
-
o
—
— o
+
+
+
— o
+
+
+ +
+
O 0
i- i-
O +
+ +
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
>
+ i- 1. i. .». + + + + + + + _
% -
> -
+ - + +
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
. a - n riy
-q. p
Miscellaneous products
— o •j- -»- o •*•
o +
»
*
+ +
4-
4+
—
O
—
O +
O
-
o
-
o
*
o
*
*
+
+
t
+ + -h -f
+
+•
+ + + +
°
+
+
IT
f
+
-
-
<
+ + + + + + +
!»
-•
!*
••
+
+
O
+
+
-*•
t-
•+•
o
NONDURABLE GOODS
n>
Processed foods
,
o
-
-*• + -t-
+
+
» - + - +
+ -*- •*• +
+
o
-
-
o f
f
+
Pulp, paper and all led -produntp .T
o
•*• +
—
- o - •** o
•o- - -a --•**-. o o
+
+
- +
o
o
•*-
o +
o
-
o
o
•*• •*•
-
+
o - - + •»•
+
-
+
_
+
o
+
-fr
+
_
+
-!••*•
+
-
+ o + +
—
o
o
+
+ + •+•
+
+ + + + + +
- -- ---.-...._
-h = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling, Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census
mined.
+ + + + + + +
+
- J - - - - - — +
+ 0 +
_
_
+
a
+
Wool products
-------before the direction of change is deter-
50
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles.
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 {Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
.=._=_ July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961}
0
1 1 1 1 m [rmTpTrrqTTTTrprrn rjTTrrrp
I I! I I 1 I I I I I
-
Penod begins with
Reference trough dotes
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and indus.
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
24. Mfrs.' new orders
moch. and equip. Indus.
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
+42
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+-30
+ 42
Months from reference troughs
*Reforence peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For serte
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter i
set'at "'00". MCD values ore shown in appendix C
x
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
2
For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving overage is shown.
51
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4|
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak dote preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Mov, 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trouch; Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trouch: Feb. 1961)
i
I III I
I
I III I 1 I I
I
I
I
I
I I
I
J] Index
Reference trough dates
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
i M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Ti
Inde
-<- Reference trough dates
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
-12
-6
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+42
-12
-6
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+42
Months from reference troughs
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak monlh is set at "100", For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
sefat "100", MGD values are shown in appendix C.
^Jee table 2 fo latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and compmable months of previous expansions are shown in fable 7.
52
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
lnd«K
—— Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
— ~~ July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr 1958)
May 1960 to present! (Reference trough: Fob. 1961)
~
Reference trough dates
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
Index
43. Unemployment rate,
total /Inverted/
110
105
41. Employees in nonagri
establishments
*100
llOr-
55. Wholesale prices, except
farm prod, ond foods
105-
"•100 -»'.
95 L-
-J95
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
+42
-12
0
+6
412
+18
*24
+30
U2
Months from reference troughs
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is sot ot "100". For series
w c t h an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
set'at "100". MCD values ore shown in appendix C
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in tsble 7.
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4|
53
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
impored for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
Percent of reference peak levels of selected series coi
the reference peak date precedi ng the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
f HM M ! I M ] I I M H I M M I I ! I I I j I I I I ! I M I I I I 1
Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949}
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
Reference trough dates
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
Index
'V'-. ;'
-" ^
v
A
\ <\ \ / \
95U
-12
0
46
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
+42
-12
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
42
Months from reference troughs
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series
with on MCD of "3" or more, the overage of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
sefot "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
Hee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
54
CHART 4|
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of reference peolc levels of selected series compored for 4 business cycles. Period begins with
the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
1i 1 f n 1 i1 1 1 1 1 1 1i nTrni 11
Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
•
July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
— _ - July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
*
Index
Index
-*?• Reference trough dotes
Indicates the point at which this expansion reached
its reference peak.
62. Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, all mfg.
TT
67. Bank rotes, short-term
business loans
64. Mfrs. inventories,
oil mfg, industries
90 L
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
+30
+36
+42
-12
-6
+6
+12
HB
*24
»36
142
Months from reference troughs
-^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set ot "100". For scries
witli an MCD of "3" or more, the overage of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is
set'at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
^ee table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7.
2
Last 3 quarter* anticipated,
Cyclical Patterns
55
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date 1 of each series for each expansion.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 45 months later.2 Specific
trough dotes are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and indus,
bldgs. 3
1958
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-Specific trough dotes
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg
"100
24. Mfrs,' new orders,
mach. and equip. Indus
-105
100"
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36+42
0
+ 6 + 1 2 + 1 8
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1* or "2",the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C.
2
^ee appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 2* For the 1949 and 1958
cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown.
56
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion,
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 45 months later. Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954
+6
1958
1961
+ 12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
^Specific trough level. For series with o "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2*, the figure for the specific trough is set ot "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100", For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100", MCD values are shown in appendix C,
l
2
$ee appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 2*
Cyclical Patterns
57
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series far each expansion.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 45 months later. Specific
trough dotes are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of--
-1115
Index
300
II I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 II I I I 1 I I I j I I t ) l
41. Employees in nortagri.
establishments
j—^-Specific trough dates
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted ]
- no
105 -
100*
1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 11 1 1 1 1 1 11 I
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
-1-12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3* or more, the overage of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100", For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C
2
^ee appendix B for specific dates.
See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
Cyclical Patterns
58
Table 7-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 34, 55,
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MCI) of "3" or more
{series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak tnonth is
used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter. See
also MOD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in—
after
reference July
July Nov. Mar. June Oct. Aug. Apr. Feb.
1938
trough1 1921
1924
1949 1954 1958
1927 1933
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
41
2 . Accession rate manufacturing
40
3 . Layoff rate, manufacturing ( inverted ).**.... 40
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
goods industries
41
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2... 40
u
13.
14.
16.
17.
19.
23.
24.
Number of new business incorporations
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
Price per unit of labor cost index..........
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of industrial materials prices
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
40
40
39
41
41
41
94.8
28.0
32.3
85.8
48.0
66.2
73.4 101.5 103.0
54.4 108.0 119.6
66.7 113.0 183.3
95.1 99.7 KX1.5
61.6 111. B 103.4.
48.3 100.0 160.0
203.4 126.0
174.1 153.2
51.3
42.3
63.6 186.1
76.5 136.5
95.7 114.9 138.5
86.7 122 . 5 120.2
33.0
36.1
(NA)
35.8
10.6
38.4
96.5
63.6 £05.3 100.7
61.3
25.3 121.3
78.0
75.0
5.7
(NA) (NA) (WA)
121.8
115.1 501.4
68.6
59.5
83.3
165.7
125.4
228.6 124.1 114.7 106.6 122.3
67.6 116.4 127.2 130.9
69.7
(MA) 191.8 in. 5 BO. 7 51.5
47.1 218.6
95.5 103.6
97.3
(m] (NA) 97.2 96.6 101.6
170.0 169.3 138.7
52.7 57.7
84.6
96.8
77.9 107,0
99.1
102. B
59.1
HO. 3
102.4
150.7
98.5
41
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) 162.8
41
(NA)
(NA)
(MA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
41
41
41
39
39
41
41
41
82.9
(NA)
106.0
(NA)
(NA)
100.2
(NA)
106.3
92.3 79.4
(NA) (NA)
101.6 83.6
1X2.5 86.9
114.6 98.9
126.9 87.3
U4. 5 39.6
108.8 94.6
90.7
(NA)
93.7
78.8
98.1
62.5
79.1
86.8
118.6
(NA)
H3.5
140.2
(NA)
129.3
135.4
128.2
111.6
H4.8
134.9
137.1
124.1
H2.7
134.2
129.2
103.3
45.5
98.6
119.9
108.2
129.2
121.8
118.2
102,7
62.7
109,6
116.5
109.6
125.2
11.8.7
109.4
107.9
106.1
120.7
122.7
116.2
140.2
122.0
119.7
41
64.9
$6.6
77.1
87.1
107.9
107.8 109.1
101.2
100.0
36
45
44.5
54.8
91.2
100.2
64.9
41.4
49.3
64.7
41
40
40
75.6
(NA)
(NA)
90.1
(NA)
(NA)
83.3 81.7
(NA) 81.9
(NA) 106.1
39
77.7
87.7
93.3
117.3
113.5 133.0
(MA) 113.9 118./+
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
establishments
43 . Unemployment rate, total ( inverted )
47. Index of industrial production.
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
52 . Personal income
'54, Sales of retail stores
35. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods . . . . .
....
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
a..
..
»
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
total manufacturing
66, Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
55.4
(NA) 120.0
(NA) 129.5
134.3
107,9
88.7 117.2
94.6 125.1
99.8 97.7
113.2 111.2 113.7
(NA) H9.7 116.9 103.1 111.2
157.6
(NA) 153.2 128.1 136.7
(NA) 134.1
130.0 103.3
93.3
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the peak
hud been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for
the reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Coraparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 36 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1 6 )
94.
Cyclical Patterns
59
Table 8.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with & "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 2,3, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55,
62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base.
For series with an NCD of "3" or
more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough
month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough
quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
after
beginning in—
referNov. Mar. June ' Oct. Aug. Apr.
July
ence July
1924 1927
trough1 1921
1933 1938 .1949 1954
1958
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
41
40
3 . Layoff rate manufacturing ( inverted ) . . . 40
.*..
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
41
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started. . 41
9. Construction contracts awarded for commer40
cial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
+4.8
+3.7 -12.6 +8.8 +16.4 . +3.8 -2.5 +3.1 +3.0
(NA) +30.6 -34.3 +32.8 +20.9 , +34.6 -15.1 +21.8 -2.5
-6.6 +80.6 +127.8 +173.3 -25.3 +68.4 +82.2
(HA) +4.2
+188.2 +12.5 -48.6
+77.9 +54.7 -59.3
(NA) (NA) +91.3
(NA) +45.3 -10.5
+41.1 +38.9 -62,0 +201.5
+6.8 +30.2 +47.9
-25.9 +26.2 +20.6
(NA) +43.8 +18.4
3.0 -12.0 -21.5;
+42.2
(NA) +160.7,
+34.5 -33.4
(NA)
+39.3 -92.3 +33.3
(NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)1
+93.4 -7.0 +154.7 -8.2
-0.7 -38.9 +87.6 +58.1
+35.5
+31.3
+37.1
-31.5
+28.7
+7.4
+58.9
+14.1
+10.6
-39.5
+62.6
+4.5
+33.9
+3.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) +85.7 +26.0 +28.6 +40.3
41
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
41
41
41
39
.'39
41
41
41
+20.3
(NA)
+55.2
+25.3
+26.0
+29.2
+37.8
+13.3
+6.3
(NA)
+23.7
+15.1
+14.9
+31.0
+14.5
+8.8
-17.3
(NA)
-11.2
-13.4
-3.3
-19.7
-11.2
-5.4
+32.6
+88.4
+94.3
+56.4
+36.2
+64.0
+60.7
+65.0
+32.3
•(NA)
+110.0
+59.(2
(NA)
+54,8
+52.0
+57.2
41
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
40
40
39
41
41
41
41
14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
-12.2
+50.2
(NA)
(NA)
+55.6
+63.9
+2.5
+11.3 +7.7
-2.4 -15.3
+22.2 +21.6
-1.6 -1.6
+63.6 +33.8
-3.2
+12.6
24, Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units author-
-2.9
-23.9 +12.0
+22.1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
47.
49.
50.
51.
Index of industrial productioni *
Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
-5.1 -17.2
+17.5
+202.7
+47.4
+41.8
+25.9
+48.6
+40.3
+29.2
+6.9
+5.2
+8.4
+22.2
+11.5
+27.1
+22.1
+19.0
+7.1
+10.4
+27.6
+19.5
+14. 0
+29.2
+19.1
+11.1
+10.0
+40.8
+28.3
+23.4
+18.3
+36.9
+20.8
+22.1
+20.3 +14*2 +13.6
+10.0
+1.7
+0.1
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total ( ) 3
Q:
36
45
+29.8 +30.7 -26.1 +187.2
+59.5 +43.6 -52.9 +276.9
41
40
40
(NA) +50.0 +40.6 +10.5 +25.7
(NA) +61.8 +13.0 +17.7 +34.1
-6.1 -4.3
-16.0 -12.3 -15-4 +11.4
+9.1 +15.6 +11.3
(NA) (NA) (NA) +38.2 (N,A) +60.3 +25.1 +6.9 +12.5
(NA) (NA) (NA) +121.9 +63.0 +86.4 +48.2 +27.0 +32.2
39
-27.9
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
0.0
-3.1 -28.9
(NA) +33.6 +36.2 +19.7
+0.4
NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921;, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the peak
had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for
the reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels' reached on those dates.
NA Not available.
^-Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-te:rm moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 36 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1 6 )
94.
Cyclical Patterns
60
Table 9.-PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for eyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 1%, 53, and
54), the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more
(series 9, 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the
base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter. See also MOD footnote
to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after July
specific 192X
trough1
43
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr . Feb.
1956
1961
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13 * Number of new business incorporations
July
1924
37
41
41
45
43
(MA) "97.8 -lOO.O
70. H 100.0
(we)
:;9fj.8 "99.0 100.0
*45 * 2 "1H.6 "108.2 24.1 205. 5 45.6 (xnc) 91. . 1n;"}.r
"86+ 3 -106.8 mo. 5 "70.4 36.7 6^.7 (NSC) »138.1 95. H
(NA) "107.2 '•'90.3 "101.0 99.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) (NA)
-99.2 161.4 (NSC) 47.5 49,3 "153.6 -186.3 "122.5 139.3
"71*3 "iQQ.8 "76. 6 75.8 103.9 "135. 1 -65.1 "92.9 96.0
44
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) "21X. 6 "106.2 ®99.2 130.6
43
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
90.7
(NA)
82.8
78.8
8S.3
79.3
73.6
84.6
118.0
(NA)
143.5
133.5
(NA)
139'. 3
167. S
139.1
111.5
(MA)
133.5
130.5
118.6
134.2
146.3
(NSC)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
43 * Unemployment rate, total ( inverted )
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
53, Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
54. Sales of retail stores. *.....*...*.**..•....
41
38'
42
39
39
43
43
39
(NA) (NA)
ma. 3 "108.2 "116.2
(NA) (NSC) (NSC)
(NA) (NSC) (NSC)
(NA) "iii.i "112.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
102.9 (NSC) (NSC)
(NA)
"96.§
91.6
" lOILO 107.6
-67.5 "7B.2 100.0
"109.2 "109.0 11.8.8
"12,1.6 "112. 4 122.7
-110.1 «107.6 3116.2
"122.6 11?. 4 m..i
"116.1 noa.3 116.3
1U.4 '-109. 4 UB.2
*1Q«.4
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning In year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
43
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13, Number of n^w bu^in^ss incorporations. . . .
...
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices. . . . .
...
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
*91.3 --•96.6 "105.6
(NA)
"+15. A *+7.9 "+/, . 5 +4.6 +19.9
+&.? -+/,.! "•-i'i.2
+5.7
"+11S.5
*+23.6
(NA)
*+46.2
*+75.0
*+82.6
"+42.9
(NA)
+89.5
*+36.7
44
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
37
41
41
45
43
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) %18Q.l -+89-9 "+36.7 +41*3
43
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) "+§6.3 +22 „ 9
+32.3
(NA)
+112.2
+59.2
(NA)
+59.5
+128.7
+72.2
+17.5
+194.8
+48.2
+35.3
+21. §
+40.7
+67.3
(NSC)
**9.'; *+7.6 + 10.0
"+61. 9 "+54.2 +44.9
"+21. 3 "+27.2 +28.5
«+24.9 *+l6.4 +23.4
"+14. 3 *+12.') + •18.3
"+24. ? +19.8 3+21.7
"+17. 6 +22.2
fr+25.6
+20.3 "+13. 7 +23.1
"+40. 1 +149. S (NA) +46.3 (NSC!)
"+20. 5 "+12.? -54.1 +11.1 (NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) "+15. 2 "-+6.8
(NSC) +211.5
-9.7 "+87. /< •-H09.6
*.+7.3 +103. £ +60. a '4-100.3 "+24.7
+33,5 3^4.6
"+§1,7 +12.1
"+9,4 +/;.5
"H8.1 +54.9
*+17.4 45. 9
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
47." Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars(Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
52 . Personal income *.
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
41
38
42
39
39
43
43
39
»+32.6 *+12.C *+ll. 5 +32.^
(NA) +79. t
(NA) (NA)
*+66.1 *+31.7 #+24.9 +77.5
(NA) (NSC) (NSC) +56.^
(NA) (NSC) (NSC) +31.3
*+32 . 8*+15.5 "+15. 9 +61. S
(NA)
(NA) +106. £
(NA)
+20.7 (NSC) (NSC) +65. C
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
^Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the roontl
indicated in the first column. The figure shown represents the change to the specific peak and the period covered is
shorter than that of the current expansion (col. 1)* See appendix B for specific peak dates.
^•Based on period of the most recent specific expansion for eacji series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough to
the latest month shown in table 2. The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by an
asterisk { ) Specific trough dates are shown in appendix B.
*.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted seriesu
3
Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 2 and the high
preceding that low.
Appendixes
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle
reference dates
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October I860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882
XXX
30
22
46
Iff
34
36
XXX
XXX
18
8
32
18
65
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893...
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910...
January 1 1 . .
93.
August 1 1 . .
98..
January 1 2 . .
90.
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
TO
22
44
46
43
35
51
56
32
36
6?
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1 4
99
October 1926...
August 1929....
May 1937.
February 1945..
November 1 4 .
98.
July 1953
13
43
13
1
11
27
21
50
80
37
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
July 1957
April 1958
February 1961
May I960
48
34
13
9
9
35
25
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
-36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
34
3
46
6
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
X
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
*21 cycles, 1857-1960,
2
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
6
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.
61
Appendixes
62
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that eaeh series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates are
thooe dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. Thig table shows, for selected leading
and eoineident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
Dec. '60 Apr. '58
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs . . NSC
.
Jun.'58
13. Number of new business ineorporat ions
Jan. '61 Nov. '57
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. Feb. ' 61 Apr. '58
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Oct. '60 Dec. '57
23. Index of industrial mat, prices....Dec. '60 Apr. '58
24, Value of rafrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Nov.1 60 Feb. '58
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits-. Dec. '60 Feb. '58
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
Feb. '61 my '58
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) May '61 Jul.'SS
47. Index of industrial production
Jan. "61 Apr. '58
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
IstQ' 61 IstQ' 58
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
IstQ' 61 IstQ' 58
52 . Personal income
Feb. '58
NSC
53. Labor income in mining, manufacDec. '60 Apr. '58
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr. « 61 Mar. '58
Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 Jun.'32 Apr. '28 Jul.°24 Feb. '2:
NSC
Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul.(24 Mar, '2:
NSC
Dec. '53
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Feb., '49
May '49
Jun.'49
Jun.'49
Dec. '34
NA
Jun.'32
Jul.'32
Dee. '26
NA
NSC
Aug.'2S
Jun,'24
NA
Get. '23
Jun.'24
Jan, '21
NA
Aug.1 2]
Jul.'2]
Mar. » 54 Apr. '49 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Aug. '54
Sep. ' 54
Apr. '54
2ndQ' 54
2ndQ' 54
Mar. '54
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
2nd Q1 49
2ndQ'49
Oct,'49
Jun.'38
Jun,'38
May '38
2ndQ'38
IstQ' 38
May '38
Mar. '33
May '33
Jul.'32
IstQ' 33
3rdQ'32
Mar. '33
Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
NSC
4thQ'26
Jul.'24
NA
Jul.'24
NSC
NSC
2ndQ'24
Jul.'g]
NA
Apr.'a:i
4thQ'23
NA
2ndQ'2]
NA
NSC
NA
Mar. '22
Sep. '39
NA
Apr. '38
Jun.'38
Aug. '54 Oct. ' 9 Jun.'38 Mar. '33 NA
4
Jan. '54 NSC
May »38 Mar. '33 NSC
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in—
Selected series
toy
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
Apr. ' 59 Nov.1 55
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
mr.'56
13. Number of new business incorpoApr. '59 Feb. '56
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. May '59 Dec. » 55
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59 Jul.'56
23. Index of industrial mat. prices....Nov. '59 Dec. '55
24. Value of rafrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Jul.'59 Nov. '56
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov. '58 Feb. '55
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagriculApr, '60 Mar. '57
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb. '60 Mar. '57
47. Index of industrial production
Jan. '60 Feb. '57
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)»
2nd Q1 60 3rdQ'57
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q)
2ndQ'60 3rdQ' 57
NSC
Aug. '57
,53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
rfey '60 Jul.'57
'54 * Sales of retail stores
Apr.1 60 Aug.* 57
NA not available.
Apr. '53 NSC
Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22 MA
NSC
Mar. '46 Jul.'37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19
NSC
Feb. '51
Jan. '53
Feb. '51
Jul.'46
Jan. '48
Jun.'48
Jan. '48
Jan. '29
NA
Sep. '29
Mar. '29
Oet,'25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25
Apr. '23
NA
Mar. '23
Mar. '23
Dee. '19
Na
JU1.'19
A?r.'2C
4
Feb. '51 Apr. ' 8 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
I NA
NA
Jul.'53
Jun.'53
Jul.'53
2ndQ' 53
2nd Q' 53
Oct. '53
Jul.'48
Jan. '48
Jul.'48
4thQ' 48
4thQ'48
Oot.'48
Jul.'37
Jul.'37
May '37
3rdQ'37
3rdQ'37
Jun.'37
Aug. '29
NA
Jul.'29
3rdQ'29
3rdQ'29
Aug. '29
Jan. '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 26
Dec. '36
NA
Feb. '37
Mar. '37
Jul.'53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29 NA
Mar, * 53 NSC
Sep. '37 Sep.* 29 NSC
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
Jun.'23
NA
May '23
NSC
NSC
lstQ'24
Jan. '20
NA,
Feb. '20
NA
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NA
Jul.'20
Appendixes
63
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes
Monthly series
CI
I
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg
.9
4
.2
4
Accession rate, manufacturing
4.92 ! 4.69
1.29
Nonagricultural placements, all industries,... 1.82
Layoff rate manufacturing
8.05
9.52
Temporary layoff all industries
«... 17.76 17.12
Avg. weekly initial claims, State unemploy4.62
5.29
6. New orders, durable goods industries. *..
3.25
3.79
1.
2.
30.
3.
4.
5.
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus
4.47
9. .Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
9.66
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
4.93
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
7.34
29. New building permits, private housing
..
. . 3.82
13. New business incorporations.
2.68
14. Liabilities of business failures
16.86
4.01
c
I/c
MCD
1/5
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
2.15
10.58
9.00
9.77
8.40
6.35
4.06
5.64
5.25
5.39
3.08
.21
1.72
1.18
4.02
3.99
2.00
2.73
1.09
2.00
4.29
2
3
2
3
5
.95
.89
.59
.0
7
.9
8
2.27
2.21
1.63
1.65
1.54
1.63
1.73
1.44
2.49
1.61
1.86
2.02
2
3
.86
.59
1.72
1.67
1.51
1.54
1.61
2.49
3
.84
1.76
1.51
12.50
3.62
1
;.8s
9.77 3.94
8.33 - 4.56
9.43
4.61
7.31
3.39
2.36
16.36
1.67
1.47
1.14
1.48
1.10
2.52
5.65
3.14
6.41
2.29
2.15
6.49
6
4
6
3
3
6
C)
.82
C1)
.68
.77
t1)
1.70
1.82
1.53
1.89
2.10
1.48
1.54
1.59
1.53
1.53
1.70
1.32
6.63
10.75
6.13
14.38
6.30
5.77
3.03
3.71
2.32
3.32
3.02
2.26
1*3. Large business failures.
13.09 12.81
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
.56
.69
19. Rtnnlc prlnps, 5 0 c.nrnmnn stocks. . . . . . . .
0
.......
1.86
2.65
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
5.29
6.81
26, Production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
5.81
5.32
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries
7.68
5.54
1.32 1.04
2.11
.33
1.67
6.07
1.70
1.11
6
2
2
t1)
.4
9
.68
1.53
2.23
2.35
1.37
1.74
1.67
9.77
7.47
12.70
5.30
3.60
3.94
3.10
1.71
3
.66
,2.54
1.76
10.58
4.63
2.14
2.49
3
.6
7
il,87
1.63
12.70
3.91
4.73
.4
7
1.37
1.41
2
2
.79
.95
3.53
2.44
2.12
2.05
9.77
11.55
4.20
4.06
2.05
1.62
1.58
1.63
2.12
1.60
14.11
18.71
8.19
10.90
9.07
9.62
5.29
3.33
3*33
4.91
3.74
3.47
2.05
1.53
1.84
1.90
1.80
2.65
9.77
18.14
18.14
11.55
9.54
11.55
3.53
4.31
3.43
3.43
3.62
3.53
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments...
42. Total nonagricultural employment.
43. Unemployment rate total
45. Average weekly insured unemployment, State....
46. Help-wanted advertising
•••«.
.30
.36
4.19
5.98
4.82
3.11
.15
.29
3.14
5.02
2.56
1.88
.25
.19
2.41
2.86
3.56
2.35
.0
6
1.53
1.10
1.76
.72
.80
1
2
2
2
1
1
51. Bank debits outside NYC
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction....
54. Sales of retail stores...
55. Wholesale prices, except farm prod, and foods.
1.09
1.48
.9
4
,81
.78
.17
.58
1.44
.27
.53
.63
.10
.9
7
.0
6
.41
.61
.4
4
.13
.73
2.40
.66
.7
8
1.43
.77
1
3
1
1
2
1
. 0 5.29
6
. 9 ' 1.82
7
. 9 2.67
6
.88 2.53
.72 , 3.74
. 0 3.47
8
i
.73 3.53
.54 ' 1.69
.66 3.43
.87 3.43
.85 , 2.53
.77 3.53
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing..
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of
.65
.54
.8
4
,1
.9
.36
.9
4
1,33
.39
2
1
.72 2.27
.39 , 8.33
1.55 9.07
2.02 13.89
66. Consumer 'installment debt
.00
.83
.54
.17
.9
4
.78
1.10
*22
2
1
.53 2.40
.22 , 11.45
1.42
2.29
5.59
5.68
5.20
5.37
26.37 26.37
. . 15.12 14.78
.
26.25 26.21
.82
.95
4.09
2.70
6.12
6.82
5-47
6.45
5.47
4.28
6
6
6
6
6
. « 23.31 23.46
5.69
7.33
1.39
1.80
1.68
1.50
2.17
2.57
.58
.27
3.60
4.71
1.04
.58
1.L2
.52
6.52
1.21
1.34
2.59
1.94
.52
6
2
2
4
3
1
4.34
8.33
15.63 5.17
18.00 11.45
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
83. Federal cash receipts from public
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
91. Defense Dept. obligations total
92. Military contract awards in U.S
99. New orders, defense products...
114. Treasury bill rate
L16, Corporate bond yields
L17. Municipal bond yields
L18. tfertgage yields
See footnotes at end of table.
C1)
((M
Ci>
)
1
1
C)
C1) '
.81'
.95
.93
.6
8
.52
1.51
1.74
1.51
1.47
1.58
1.41
1.57
1.46
1.43
1.47
8.47
7.47
5.93
6.61
5.95
2.18
2.60
2.27
2.48
2.86
1.52
2.47
2.72
2.26
2.63
9.13
1.45
2.00
2.13
1.79
1.90
2.63
5.63
9.71
10.46
8.67
8.56
17*13
2.41
3.55
3.75
4.90
3.55
9.13
64
Appendixes
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continoed
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
T/c
Monthly series
I
CI
C
T/c
MOD
for
MOD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE— Con.
81. Consumer prices
...»...
*.....
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries....
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123 . Canada
»
..•
.•
122 . United Kinpdom
121. OECD European countries,
..
.
125. West Germany
126. Prance.
328. Japan
4.59
4.39
3.61
3.47
.15
.0
1
7.03 j 6.69
1.51
.57
1.11
.7
9
.13
1.69
1.34
3.95
3.58
.7
7
3.96
.43
4
4
1
5
1
.96
.85
.7
7
.4
8
.3
4
1.77
1.59
60
.0
1.52
5.95
1.66
70
.6
1.51 7.53
2.25 25.20
1.45
7.B8
1.87 13.89
.0
9
1.14
.86
1.42
1.36
1.44
1.70
.77
1.09
.83
1.18
1.20
1.41
1.07
.52
.7
4
.50
.69
.68
.4
7
1.23
1.48
2.32
1.66
1.71
1.76
1.91
.87
2
3
2
2
2
3
1
.2
7
.81
.89
.93
.89
.4
6
.87
3.47
2.40
3.47
2.86
3.21
2,70
2.91
2.12
1.87
2.40
2.14
2.08
1.02
1.52
I
C
T/c
1
T/c
Quarterly series
11.
16.
18.
22.
•
cT
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
ffew capital appropriations, manufacturing.... 11.65
Corporate profits after taxes
»... 6.28
Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing... 6.76
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
5.10
QCD
for
QCD
span
MCI)
2.75
2.97
60
.0
3.59
5,95
8*27
15.63
5,59
8.93
7,75
31.25
1 . 0 5.43
80
25.00 H.27
.2
31.00 6 4
2.91
17.86
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
7.26
4.03
4.80
7.39
4.71
4.17
.98
.86
1.15
1
1
2
.98
.86
.56
2.47
2.47
2.47
1.45
1.35
1.40
4.67
5.25
5,23
2.47
2.47
2.73
3.76
3.78
.9
9
1
.9
9
3.23
1.40
5.25
3.23
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57. Final sales
..«..«.«...«......
1.29
1.54
1.30
.9
4
, .50
.38
10
.7
1.33
1.20
.6
4
.38
.31
1
1
1
.6
4
.38
.31
3.82
4.67
6.00
1.43
1.35
1.4^
4.67
60
.0
84
.0
3.B2
4.07
60
.0
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equip...
68, Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP. . . .
..
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans
3.15
.0
9
2.31
1.26
.9
4
1.57
2.64
.72
2.00
.48
.8
6
.9
7
1
1
1
.48
.68
.79
4.67
3.15
2.47
1.83
1.41
1.56
46
.7
5.86
4.67
4.67
3,15
2.47
11.61
8.60
97, Backlog of capital appropriations mfg» . . .
. . . 5.89
8.33
5.67
i.56
7.58
6.55
5.54
1.10
.7
8
.28
2
1
1
.3
4
.7
8
.28
2.59
2,32
30
.0
1.33
1.38
1.50
40
.0
40
.0
6.00
43
.0
2,32
30
.0
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
NOTE: Measures are computed for a period of at least
10 years beginning with January 1953, except for series 7,
86, 87, and 116. The period begins with May 1959 for
series 7 and with January 1960 for series 116. For series
86 and 87, the period ends with June 1962.
x
Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures
shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in
Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Shiskin, issued as Occasional Fbper 57 by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal
of Business, October 1957).
"CIt1. is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
seasonally adjusted series. "F is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical com
ponent into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" la the
same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series,
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component for 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.*
Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month «pans. Averages,
without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes
over each span. MCD is the shortest span in months for
which the average percentage change (without regard to
sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average
percentage change fwithout regard to sign) in *he irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it Indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted
series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular
Appendixes
65
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those 6f a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1L5.
The actual value of ADR falls between
1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month
intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series,
the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
CI is 1.67 for series 6, Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries. This indicates that 1month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.54 for I and 8.33 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has bee,n successfully separated into
an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
component. Finally, ADR is 4.56 for the MCD moving average.
This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4 to 5 months.
The increase in the ADR from 1.67 for CI to 4.56 for the
MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, monthto-month changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect
the underlying cyclical-trend movements of the series,
whereas the month-to-raonth changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not,.
movements. Since changes are not computed for spans greater
than 5 months, all series with an MOD greater than "5" are
shown as "6". Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of
the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in
quarters) for which the average percentage change (without
regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change ''without regard to sign) in
the irregular component, and remains so.
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1month spans_and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD
is "6", no I/C_ratio is shown for the MCD period. For <parterly series, L/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD
spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series
of observations. When there is no change between 2 months,
a change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve.
The MCD curve is a moving average
(with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally
adjusted series.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERlES-Continued
Port 2.—Average Unit Changes
i/c
Monthly series
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories...
20. Change in book value, mfrs,1
inventories of matls., supplies.
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
Unit of
measure
CI
C
I
for
MCD1 MCD
span<
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
Ann. rate,
bil. dol... 3.50
3.37
.85
3,96
4
'
.4
9'
1.47
1.44
7.94
3.22
1.52
. . do. . . . .
...
1.45
.37
3,.93
5
.92
1.64
1.46
6.05
3.15
.9
4
.6
4
.6
1
2.93
4
.9
7
1.79
1.58
7.44
3.45
Bil. dol....
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit.... Ann. rate,
5.46
.7
9
bil. dol... 5.60
104.23 82 ,.19 52.77
93. Free reserves
Mil. dol
.23
Percent
.03
.23
85. Change in money supply
98. Change in money supply and time
.4
0
.21
.21
..do
Ann. rate
.26
1.19
bil. dol... 1.22
113. Change, consumer installment
.85
.75
.34
..do
debt
88. Merchandise trade balance...... ,Mil. dol.... 58.96 56.60 17.50
NOTE: Measures are computed for the period, January
1953 to mid-1964, except for series 88 and 112. For series
88, the period ends with June 1962 and for series 112, the
period begins with August 1959.
1
Where MCD is larger than "6", a 6-term moving average
is used as the MCD curve.
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and
T/c
•
5.64
1.56
6.75
9
2
11
.9
7
.95
.82
1
1.54
2.03
1.45
1.47
1.52
1.48
6.09
10.31
6.18
3.07
3.17
3.32
5.29
7
.7
9
1.51
1.45
6.80
2.60
4.51
5
.3
9
1.47
1.47
6.22
2.48
2.19
3.23
3
3
.78
.i
9
1.71
1.82
1.55
1.61
9.00
11.30
3.24
2.64
negative data. Thus, "CI1^ is the average month-to-month
change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is
computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the
same unit of measure as th£ series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of
the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the
irregular component, whicn is determined by subtracting
the cyclical component frotn the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown above have the same meaning as in
part 1.
66
Appendixes
Appendix D.-CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBEf
(NOVEMBER 1963 TO DECEMBER 1964)
1<?63
19<S4
Series
Nov. Dec.
4. Temporary layoff, all industries. 86,7
5. Avg. weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance. . . 103.1
.
13. New business incorporations1
82.3
14. Liabilities of business failures. 102.5
10. Large business failures
94.3
17. Ratio, price to unit labor
cost, manufacturing
18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg.2.
30. Nonagri. placements, all Indus.1.
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
55* Wholesale prices, exeept farm
101.1
100.8
93.1
95.1
Jan. Feb.
June
July
86.6
76.7
.60
98,3 1 4 . 82.4 90.7
95.9 144.5 107.7 98.9
133.7
97.5
78.5
85.7
142.1
116.3
110.3
111.7
84.0
109.5 94.4 93.8 83.0 82.9
96.3 uo.o 106.9 102.9 106.7
101.7 103.5 114.6 103.3 94.4
112.8 U5.0 109.1 99.7 104.7
93.9
100.2
103.1
101.9
96.7 109.6 107.4 109.3 109-1 106.3
102.3 102.3 100.6 99.9
99.9 99-9 100.0 100.0
98.5 91.9 96.2 93.7
106.4 69.3 112.1 126.6
92.8 102.7 85.8
91.
92.
112.
128.
D©f©ngo Dept. ©blip. , total
Military contract awards in U.S..
Change, business loans3 . . . . .
.....
Japan, index of industrial production
104.7
108.2
82.7
87.6
85.5
90.5
124.9
95.9
78.7
92.5
91.0
90.3
89.0
99.0
92.0
93.5
86.6 95 •$
103.0
82.1
132.6
94.3
;L34.«
102.^
77. C
85.1
97.7 98.0 99.4 100.0 100.3 100.8 102.3 96.2 99.1 101.7 103.3 101.1 97. 1
97.6 * . .
106.2
100.8 . .
. . . . . .94.7
.. .
. * . .. ,
81.1 82.6 77.4 92.0 103.6 107.4 110.8 105.0 111,0 124,. 4 112.6 93.3 B2.2
100.0 100.2 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.0 100.0
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
81. Index of consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to public..
83. Federal cash receipts from pub...
90. Defense Department obligations —
Aug. Sopt . Oct. Nov. Doe,
Mar. Apr. May
90.3 99.6 92.2
8^.8 94.5 91.5
100.8 101.7 100.2
99.0 102.0
99.4
99.9
99.0
79.0
85.7 102.5 79.7
91.6 93.7 92.1 95.1 96. (I
96.7
92.8
99.9
99.9 99.9 99.9 100.1 100.0
99.0 97.6 103.9
99.8 99.9 100.2
103.7 102.9 96.6
121.6 149.8 48.9
100.8
100.0
115.0
115.1
97 . 9 96.9
100.2 100.2
93.8 105.7
123.5 46.1
72.3 2 7 0 89. 6 89.2 97.1 95.8
0.
£8.9
100. a
102.4
100.2 99.1
102.9 98. S
102.0
:io6.ij
92.9 102.7
85.7 108.0 94.6 86.2 147.1 101.1 94.3 98.1 103.6 90.3 99.*
83.3 124.8 84.0 89.6 197.9 69.9 88.0 99.0 93.9 84.8 94.1
99.4 100.4 100.7 100.1 99.7 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.8 100,9 1,01.8
94.7 100.9 108.4 100.3 100.5 99.4
99.1 96.8 99.1 100 . 3 99.0 102. C
Those data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research^ Inc. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
^-Factors are a combination of seasonal and trading-day factors,
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
Faetors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
Appendixes
67
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES:
1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions J
Reference peak to
reference trough
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
4,7. Index
of industrial
production
50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1
49- GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
43- Unemployment rate
51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Retail
sonal
debits
sales
outside income
NYC
Change
Rate at Rate at
in rate, peaktrough
peak to
trough
2
4.0
2
2
0.0
11.2
•a!1.9
?5'5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.9
+3.4
3.5
7.2
-1.8
+3.6
3.9
7.6
-1.2
+3.4
4.0
7.2
Jan . 1920-July 1921
May 1923- July 1924
Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927
Aug. 1929-Mar. 1933
May 1937- June 1938
NA
NA
NA
-31.6-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
NA
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
0.0
0.0
-47.4
-18.5
+7.9
2+2.3
2+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
Feb. 1945-Oct. 19454
Nov 1948-Oct. 1949
July 1953-Aug 1954s
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb. 1961
Median:6
-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-4.1
-1.9
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.9
NA
-1.4
-3.0
-3.8
-1.8
-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.5
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
+1.0
+9.9
0.0
-0.7
-1.6
-1.9
+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.7
-5.7
-16.0
-2.4
-2.9
-3.1
-2.2
-1.2
-6.5
-16.0
-2.3
-2.9
-3.6
-2.3
-3.8
-8.8
-2.4
-2.2
-0.8
-0.2
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since
1948
- . ;
6 2
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough
to reference peak
41 Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1
49 GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
3.2
2
1.9
3
3
43. Unemployment rate
51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Re^
sonal
tail
debits
outside income
sales
NYC
Change
in rate, Rate at Rate at
trough peak
trough
to peak
2
-8.7
2
2
1921-May 1923
1924-Oct. 1926
1927-Aug. 1929
1933-May 1937
1938-Feb. 1945*
NA
NA
NA
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
NA
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
NA
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131*7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+13.3
+8.8
+2.7
+85.6
+102.0
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
Oct. 1945-Nov. 1948.. ..
Oct. 1949-July 1953s
Aug. 1954-July 1957
Apr. 1958-May I960
Median:6
+17.2
+17.7
+8.9
+7.2
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+27.4
+13.5
+11.9
+34.9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.3
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.6
+59.7
+26.3
+20.0
+10.8
-K). 3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
+17.4
+35.2
+12.8
+27.9
+33.8
+27.0
+19.9
-3.7
7.1
3.3
+13.0
+26.6
+12..'5
+21.4
+24.4
+21.6
+14 J 7
-2.6
6.3
3.7
+13.0
+23.6
+12.7
+29.4
+39.0
+25.6
+23.2
-2.0
6.8
3.9
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
Excluding wartime expansions
4 expansions since
1945
"3-2
2
1.9
2 3
' 3.2
11.2
1.1
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 54), the figure for
the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of
the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49
and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
•'•The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); id quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st
quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER), vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
,
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Appendixes
68
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been
revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index.
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb. 1 Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct. T
Nov. 1
Dec.
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (Percent)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
3.4
3.0
2.3
2.6
4.0
4-1
3.3
3.0
2.2
2.4
4.6
4-0
2.9
2.9
2.2
2.2
5.0
3.7
3.5
3.3
2.3
2.6
5.6
3.2
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.6
5.7
3.2
3.4
2.0
2.5
2.6
5.8
3.3
3.8
2.4'
2.3
2,7
5.8
3.1
3.6
2.4
2.3
2.7
5.6
3.4
3.9
2.2
2.3
3.1
5.3
3.7
3.8
2.3
2.3
3.2
5.0
3.8
4-4
3.'6
2.2
2.5
3.5
4.6
4.2
4.4
2.0
2,5
3.7
4.6
3.4
4.3
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural establishments (Thous.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
44,663
44,636
43,480
47,289
48,283
* 50,104
49,409
44,542
44,466
43,207
47,533
48,463
50,259
49,272
44,627
44,253
43,869
47,733
48,488
50,332
49,127
44,370
44,071
44,292
47,883
48,472
50,387
49,012
44,657
43,855
44,619
47,840
48,543
50,411
48,867
44,945
43,642
45,020
47,972
48,161
50,404
48,789
45,H6
43,479
45,405
47,977
48,013
50,416
48,735
45,029
43,504
46,062
47,823
48,707
50,343
48,702
45,131
43,654
46,282
47,759
49,156
50,260
48,801
45,095
42,821
46,540
47,820
49,456
50,142
48,839
45,109
43,180
46,665
4B,063
49,728
49,824
49,112
45,059
43,528
46,780
48,191
49,995
49,634
49,264
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
49,439
51,932
52,836
52,057
52,502
54,331
49,543
52,119
53,062
51,464
52,647
54,527
49,886
52,165
53,114
51,202
52,860
54,499
50,101
52,313
53,059
50,879
53,353
54,728
50,435
52,417
53,048
50,870
53,565
54,555
50,715
52,485
52,969
50,924
53,737
54,449
50,870
51,837
53,030
51,038
53,799
54,395
50,960
52,474
53,016
51,191
53,325
54,352
51,172
52,497
52,847
51,494
53,408
54,248
51,324
52,698
52,719
51,467
53,354
54,160
51,508
52,734
52, 54^
51,948
53,642
54,015
51,715
52,884
52,330
52,087
54,190
53,752
42, Total nonagri cultural employment, labor force survey (Thous.)
1948.
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
50,801
51,005
53,298
53,791
55,449
54,504
50,533
51,175
53,379
53,983
55,902
54,638
50,483
51,076
54,042
53,920
56,087
54,352
51,127
50,186
51,784
53,629
53,930
55,546
54,574
50,936
49,805
51,797
53,911
54,335
55,599
54,210
51,668
49,804
52,262
53,634
54,199
55,589
54,134
51,850
49,502
52,248
54,059
54,106
55,602
53,889
51,446
50,235
53,085
53,726
54,076
55,291
54,246
51,195
50,775
53,108
53,706
54,471
55,174
54,284
51,268
50,919
53,026
53,858
54,232
55,255
54,444
51,243
50,948
53,07?
53,609
54,730
54,B43
54,B62
51,121
50,890
53,243
53,B64
55,083
54,436
54,658
1955
1956.,
1957
1958
1959
I960
55,059
57,735
58,435
58,106
59,030
60,566
55,251
57,570
58,748
57,958
58,910
60,799
55,158
57,736
59,086
57,881
59,280
60,359
55,670
57,857
58,901
57,740
59,572
61,173
55,772
58,091
58,713
57,901
59,635
61,337
56,060
58,113
58,858
57,917
59,845
61,372
56,548
58,101
58,822
57,882
60,099
61,038
56,769
58,321
58,728
57,999
60,063
61,018
56,639
58,366
59,110
58,352
60,013
61,074
56,829
58,460
58,815
58,480
60,261
60,809
57,191
58,445
58,634
58,^84
59,715
61,213
57,550
•58,717
58,572
^8, 670
60,549
60,740
!
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Annual rate, bil.
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
249.5
259.8
265.8
317.8
341.0
364.5
360.0
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
384.3
410.6
438.5
432.9
472.0
500.4
...
...
.•.
*.•
•.*
257.7
256.4
274.4
326.4
341.3
368.8
358.9
393.0
415.0
442.1
437.2
487.8
504.1
264.0
258.8
293.2
323-8
347.0
367.1
362.0
.•.
...
403.4
421.0
448.3
447.0
482.7
503.5
dol.)
...
...
...
...
265.9
257.0
304-3
338.1
358.6
361.0
370.8
408,9
430.0
442,3
460.6
488.5
502.1
**.
..*
.. •
Appendixes
69
Appendix F.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been
revised historically.
The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the .index.
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5* Data are seasonally adjusted.
!
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July 1 Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Annual rate, Ml. dol.)
1948.......
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
286.4
291.5
302.7
334.0
349-6
368.9
360.4
...
.. •
382.2
398.8
409.6
393.0
421.7
439-9
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
295.6
295-6
325-6
346.3
352-6
370.2
362.1
293-3
290.3
312.0
340.0
349.3
373-2
359.5
389-5
398.9
410 ,,0
395-2
434,0
442,1
...
...
!
""1
397-5
400.2
411.0
402.9
427-6
440.2
* •.
297.3
293.0
331.6
346.9
362.3
363.9
370.1
401.1
405.5
403.8
413.6
431.1
437*1
...
51. Bank debits outside New York City— 343 centers (Annual rate, bil. dol.)
194.8
1949
1950.......
1951
1952
1953
1954
777-8
769-3
747-7
770.3
760.1
772.0
762.8
765.1
812.0
792.2
789-3
771-9
1,006.4
981.8 1,008.9 1,001.5
1,008.2 1,036.0 1,011,1 1,022.0
1,105.1 1,097-0 1,125.1 1,128.8
1,114.9 1,166.3 1,143.6 1,137.8
1955
1956. ......
1957
1958
1959..
I960
1,190.0
1,359.0
1,453-9
1,459-5
1,577-3
1,692.2
1,220.1
1,350.7
1,467-9
1,413-7
1,609.4
1,765-4
1,244.2
1,346.6
1,460.3
1,432.7*
1,627.7
1,715-2
1,244.8
1,374-7
1,454.7
1,432.1
1,656.1
1,731.2
776.6
794.0
784.2
797.2
803.9
757.0
757.0
757.7
758.5
751.5
936.8
866.5
837-3
884.7
949.0
1,000.6
997.6
972.6
993.3
990.7
1,034.3- 1,030.6 1,047.4 1,035-4 1,059.3
1,123-3 1,130.5 1,129-3 1,129.8 1,138.0
1,129.5 1,143.7 1,145.0 1,150.8 1,147-9
1
1,281.7 1,280.9 1,281.3 1,300.0 1,313.9
1,375-2 1,378.0 .1,396.8 1,396.0 1,371-8
1,484.3 1,447.9 1,485.6 1,495-9 1,490.5
1,426.6 1,469.6 1,465.1 1,468.7 1,524.9
1,638.3 1,639.2 1,685.6 1,658.8 1,6544
1,731.2 1,739-0 1,714.0 1,771-8 1,766.5
52. Personal income (Annual rate, bil.
794.1
759-2
931-3
1,007.2
1,095-0
1,127.7
1,141.3
795-0
754.6
923-5
1,026.7
1,062.2
1,122.3
1,182.7
775.7
776.4
961.4
1,005.2
1,106.2
1,120.7
1,195.2
1,318-7
1,419.8
1,469.2
1,543.9
1,668.0
1,738.0
1,326.4
1,434.0
1,471.2
1,522,7
1,692.9
1,758.9
1,334.0
1,420.5
1,465.4
1,586.2
1,699.6
1,742,3
dol.)
194.8
194.9
1950
1951
IQ*;?
1953
1954,
201.8
209*4
216.6
246.0
263-7
283-7
287O
201.1
208.8
219.2
248.3
267.2
285.0
287.9
205.2
209.5
224.9
250.1
267.3
287.6
286.9
207-3
210.0
220.3
253-3
267.7
287.5
287.0
208.6
209.2
221.3
255-3
269.8
288.4
287.4
212.9
207.5
223.0
257.1
271.5
290.2
288.3
213-3
205.3
226.3
256.6
270.5
290.1
288.3
215.4
207.4
231.2
259-7
276.9
289.5
289.4
215. 8
208.9
234.8
259-7
279-i4
289.19
291.4
216.1
205.0
236.7
263.4
280,5
290.5
291.5
214.3
207.8
238.7
264.3
279-6
289.2
294-5
212.9
211.0
248.2
265.1
281.6
289.2
296.7
1955
1956
1957. ......
1958
1959
1960
296.6
322.0
343.0
353-3
372.1
395-9
298.1
323.7
345.5
352.1
374.7
395-6
300.8
325-7
347.0
353-7
378.4
395-9
305.1
329.3
348.6
354.2
382.3
400.8
308.1
330.6
351-5
355-8
384.8
402.3
309.4
332.9
354.0
358.0
387.0
403.0
312.8
332.2
355O
364.U387.4
402-7
313.1
336.2
356.2
363.8
384.3
403-5
315.6
337.8
355 J4
365-5
384.9
404.4
316.7
340.2
354.7
366.0
385.4
405.2
319-6
341.0
354.6
369-6
389-7
404.5
322,7
342.0
352.8
368.9
395-5
403.2
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other ttisin farm products and foods (1957-59=100)
194.8
19/9
1950
1951
1952
ia<53
1954
80.0
82.2
78.8
91.6
90.0
89.1
90.3
79-8
81.6
79-0
92.0
89.8
89.1
90.2
80.0
81.4
79-3
92.4
89.8
89.6
90.2
80.6
80.7
79.7
92.7
89.7
89.5
90.4
81.0
80.0
80.6
92.6
89-5
90.0
90.6
81.7
79-7
81.4
92.4
89-3
90.4
90.6
82.3
79.^
82.5
91.9
89.2
91-0
90.6
82.9
79.2
83.9
91.0
89-3
90.7
90.3
83.1
79*0
85.5
9016
89-3
90.5
90.2
83.1
78.9
86.9
90.4
89.1
90.4
90.3
83.1
78.8
87.8
90.2
89.0
90.3
90.6
82.8
78.7
89-7
90.2
89.0
90.3
90.6
1955
1956
1957
1Q58
1959
1960
90.8
94.8
98.6
99-3
100.4
101.5
91.2
95-0
98.9
99.2
100.8
101.4
91.3
95-5
98.9
99.2
101.0
101.4
91.4
95-9
99.0
99-1
101.2
101,4
sa.4
96.3
99-1
99.1
101.5
101.2
91-7
96.4
99.3
99-3
101.4
101.3
92.4
96.3
99.6
99-4
101-5
101.3
92.8
96.7
99.5
99-6
101.4
101.3
97-1
99-5
99-7
101.5
1011.1
931.5
93.9
97.5
99-4
99-9
101.5
101.2
94.2
98.0
99-3
94.5
98.3
99*4
100.3
101.5
101.0
100.1
101.5
101.1
Appendixes
70
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERlES-Continued
Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shovm here previously or have be<
revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the inde:
Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5. Data are seasonally adjusted except series 67.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun,e
July
Sept.
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
261.6
262.3
289.3
333.2
353.3
365.6
370.0
...
57. Final sales— series 49 minus series 21 (Annual rate, bil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
246.2
259.8
263.3
307.3
335.9
361.9
362.7
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
379.8
404.4
436.2
438.4
465.5
491.1
...
252.6
261.7
269.5
311.2
343.5
365.7
361.5
...
...
386.9
410.5
439.4
441.2
476.3
499.9
258.0
260.4
288.2
323.6
342.7
366.4
364.2
...
...
...
...
397.8
417.1
445.8
448.6
481.5
500.7
402.1
426.0
443.5
457.3
481.4
504.4
66. Consumer installment debt (Mil. dol.)
a, 618
194.8
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
6,578
8,671
11,443
14,439
15,037
19,564
22,562
6,799
8,785
11,730
14,505
15,207
20,004
22,575
7,075
8,932
11,993
14,563
15,316
20,546
22,478
7,341
9,151
12,258
14,522
15,548
20,945
22,506
7,539
9,411
12,569
14,483
16,013
21,279
22,459
7,708
9,634
12,961
H,43£
16,587
21,515
22,481
7,920
9,837
13,491
14,314
16,957
21,823
22,543
8,118
10,067
13,864
14,464
17,172
22,002
22,567
8,328
10,307
14,228
14,589
17,495
22,161
22,636
8,392
10,631
14,372
14,663
18,031
22,351
22,757
B, 491
10,935
14,302
14,806
18,463
22,555
22,916
11,212
14,335
14,916
19,025
22,627
23,190
15....
95...
1956
1957
1958.......
1959
I960
23,512
28,732
31,451
33,446
33,494
38,960
23,930
29,120
31,712
33,312
33,922
39,445
24,501
29,457
31,932
33,145
34,283
39,874
25,021
29,759
32,095
33,033
34,752
40,346
25,507
29,977
32,325
32,932
35,203
40,657
26,032
30,157
32,543
32,832
35,690
40,982
26,477
30,311
32,765
32,798
36,214
41,267
26,966
30,552
32,946
32,766
36,832
41,503
27,477
30,664
33,090
32,707
37,415
41,788
27,767
30,839
33,207
32,735
37,937
a, 888
28,066
31,107
33,341
32,816
3B,290
42,036
28,420
31,279
33,392
33,092
38,§7B
42,139
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Percent)
14....
98...
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
2.40
2.70
2.60
3.02
3.45
3.54
3.72
3.54
3.93
4.38
4.49
4.51
5.34
..
.
2.47
2.74
2.68
3.07
3.51
3.73
3.60
...
3.56
4H
.
4.40
4.17
4.87
5.35
..
.
2.60
2.63
2.63
3.06
3.49
3.74
3.56
...
••
...
3.77
4.35
4.83
4.21
5.27
4.97
2.64
2.65
2.84
3.27
3.51
3.76
3.55
...
3.93
4.3B
4.85
4.50
5.36
4.99
81. Index of consumer prices (1957-59=100)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
82.4
83.6
81.9
88.4
92.1
92.7
93.9
82.3
83.3
82.3
90.1
92.1
92.8
94.0
82.0
83.3
82.3
90.2
92.0
93.0
93.9
83.0
83.5
82.5
90.3
92.4
93.0
93.8
83*7
83.2
82.8
90.6
92.3
93.1
93.9
84.3
83.3
83.2
90.5
92.5
93.3
93.8
85.2
82.8
83.9
90.4
92.9
93.3
93.6
85.3
82.7
84.3
90.3
93.0
93.5
93.5
84.8
82.7
84.7
90.7
92.8
93.7
93.3
84.6
82.4
85.3
91.1
92.9
93.9
93.1
84.1
82.5
85.7
91.5
92.9
93.5
93.3
83.7
82.1
87.0
92.0
92.9
93.6
93.3
1955.
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
93.3
93.6
96.5
99.8
101.0
102.3
93.4
93.6
96.9
100.0
101.0
102.5
93.5
93.7
97.0
100.6
100.9
102.6
93.4
93.8
97.3
100.7
101.0
102.9
93.2
94.2
97.6
100.8
101.2
103.0
93.1
94.6
97.9
100.7
101.4
103.1
93.2
95.0
98.1
100.7
101.6
103.1
93.2
95.1
98.5
100.7
101.7
103.3
93.5
95.3
98.6
100.8
101.9
103.2
93.5
95.8
98.7
100.8
102.2
103.5
93.6
95.9
99.0
100.9
102.2
103.6
93.6
96.4
99.3
100.9
102.3
103.8
Index
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDEXES
Series
number1
1
(Page numbers)
Charts
1
2
3
Appendixes
Tables
4
5
1
2
3
4
6
5
7
8
9
A
B
C
D
F2
E
G
Bage Issue Bage Issue
1...
2...
3...
4...
5...
6...
7...
9...
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
LO...
11...
12*..
13...
14...
15...
16...
17...
18...
L9...
9
9
10
10
10
10
20...
21...
22...
23...
24...
25...
26...
29...
55
50
..
•.
..
..
.. ..
.. .. .. .•
.. .. .. ..
.•
..
..
..
55
. . . . 50
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
22
22
22
22
22
22
23
23
11
11
11
11
. . **
.•
..
.* ..
..
.•
.. ••
..
.. ..
..
..
55
..
56
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
24
24
12
12
1
1
12
9
12
12
9
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
•.
.• •.
.. ..
. . 51 56
55
. . 50
. * . . •.
..
53
..
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
25
24
24
25
22
25
25
23
22
25
25
25
..
..
..
51
..
..
..
51
..
51
..
..
..
.•
.•
30...
31...
32...
37...
8
12
12
12
.. .. .. ..
. . . . . . ..
. . .« . . . .
.. .. .. ..
6
6
6
6
40...
41...
42...
43...
45...
46...
47...
49...
13
13
13
13
13
13
14
14
..
*• .
.•
..
..
.•
..
..
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
27
50...
51...
52...
53...
54...
55...
57...
58...
14
15
15
15
15
15
14
..
..
. . . . 53
. . . . 53
..
.•
..
52
. • . • 52
..
..
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
26
27
27
27
27
27
27
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
61...
16
62... 16
64... 16
65...
16
66...
16
67...
16
68,.. 16
•.
..
..
..
..
..
».
. . •.
..
57
. . 52
.. .•
52
57
.• .. ..
.. .• ..
. . 53
57
. . 53
..
54
. . 54
54
..
.. .*
• . 54
.. *.
56
56
•.
57
..
..
..
..
..
...
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1
..
. .
. . . . 58
. . 58
. . 58
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. .
..
59
59
59
..
•.
<»
. . 62
.. ..
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63
63
63 i . •
63 66
66
63
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63
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63
63
64
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. . 58
. . 58
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59
59
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. . 62
63
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. . 63
63
64
63
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64'
63
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65
1-64
2-64
5-64
11-63
7-63
5-64
6-64
65
63
66
66
66
64
68
64
66
5-64
6-64
8-63
11-63
3-64
6-64
6-63
6-64
4-64
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6-64
6-64
6-64
1-64
12-63
12-63
6-64
6-64
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10-63
6-64
3-64
6-63
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8-64
8-64
8-64
2-64
3-64
2-64
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8-64
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8-64
8-64
8-64
10-63
10-63
8-64
8-64
4-64
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66
66
66
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66
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66
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66
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65
66
68
63,
63
63
63
63
63
63
64
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67
64
63
63
63
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63
64
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66
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67
67
67
69
69
69
66
67 66
. . 69
70
66
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63
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. . 64
64
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66
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65 6-64
. . 68 6-63
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66 6-64
. . 70 8-64
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62
59
60
••
62
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58
59
60
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62
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• . 58
. . 58
59
59
60
60
62
. . 62
. . 58
. . 58
. . 58
59
59
59
60
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60
60
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. . 58
59
59
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** .
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62
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59
59
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59
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64
63
63
65
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64
64
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66
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58
59
59
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2
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66
. . 66
65
. . 66
66
65
. * 63
63
65i
63
63i
. .
See back cover for series titles and sources*
..
€0
••
. • 58
. . 58
. . 58
. .
59
59
59
68
68
68
67 66
. . 66
66
67
•.
67 68
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
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..
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.. ..
..
..
..
..
..
..
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.. ..
..
. . ••
..
Before rfcy 196*, this appendix was "<?'.
71
72
Index
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDEXES-Continued
(Page numbers)
31
&1
$a
Charts
1
2
3
4
Tables
5
1
2
3
4
Appendixes
6
5
7
8
9
A
B
C
D
F2
E
0
Page Issue Page Issue
81... 20
17
82...
83...
17
84...
17
85...
18
86... 20
87...
20
88...
20
39...
20
90...
91...
92...
93...
94...
95...
96...
97...
98...
99...
17
17
17
18
20
17
20
20
18
17
1.10..
111..
112..
113..
114..
115..
116..
117..
118..
18
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
121.. 21
122.. 21
123.. 21
125.. 21
126.. 21
127.. 21
U>8.. 21
..
..
**
..
..
..
•.
..
..
..
..
.*
.•
..
*.
..
*.
.•
..
*.
.*
..
..
..
..
.*
..
..
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..
..
..
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..
..
..
..
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*.
•.
•*
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.*
..
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..
..
..
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..
..
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..
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.*
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35
. . 35
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35
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D34.. • . 35
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29
29
29
30
32
32
32
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64
63
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65
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73 7-64
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32
32
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63
63
63
65
64
66
66
66
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66 6-64
7
7
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31
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33
33
33
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33
33
33
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•*
64
64
65
63
-
,
37
37
40
40
37
40
40
37
l
See back cover for series titles and sources*
64
64
65
65
63
63
63
63
63
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
38
39
38
38
39
39
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. • 72 7-64
73
73
73
73
74
74
74
74
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7-64
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46
47
48
49
2
Before May 1964, this appendix was "G",
*.
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order* "M" indicates monthly series and"Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ".
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
30. Nonagriculturol placements, all industries (M).—Department of
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
31. Chang a m book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, alt industries (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Laboi, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
total (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).--
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials(M). -National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Elrnr
ployment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9, Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).«De pertinent of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F, W. Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing cor-
*12.
13.
*14.
15.
*16.
porations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).~Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Number ofnew business incorporations (M).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Number of business failures with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and
over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to Index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). —Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing cor-
porations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits(after taxes) to income originating, corporate, a l l
industries (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24* Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25. Change In manufacturers* unfilled orders, durable goods Indus*
tries {EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commit-
ments 60 clays or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unempbyment rate, married males, spouse present (M).-Departmant of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).-
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National
*47.
*49.
*50.
*51.
*52
53.
*54.
*55.
57.
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
Gross notional product in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Of).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Personal income (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Depaitment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Soles of iretoil stores (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
Index of wholesale prices, a)I commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of
merce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
Ml. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).—
Deparement of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and
salaries;) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*64. Book value of manufacturers* inventories, all manufacturing in*
dustrlesflEOM)-—Departmentof Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65* Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing Industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure
*67- Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national
product (ratto of compensation of employees In corporate enter*
prises to value of corporate product In 1954 dollar*) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National
Income Division
Continued on reverse
PCNALTY PON PRIVATE UM TO AVOID
PAYMENT OF POrTAOt, »XK>
IODNM
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, O. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
28 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81, Index of consumer prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82* Federal cash payments to the public (M).—Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment.
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).-Treasury Depart-
ment, Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by
the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the
official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in
the method of seasonal adjustment.
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).—Treasury Department,
Bu-
reau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in
the method of seasonal adjustment.
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).—Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
113* Net change In consumer Installment debt (EOM).— Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
114. Discount rate on new Issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M),»
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
115* Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).*Treasury
no seasonal adjustment
Department,
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).-Fiist
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department;
no seasonal adjustment
117.
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average
(M).-The Bond
Buyer, no seasonal adjustment
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-Fetleral Housing administration; no seasonal adjustment
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
85. Percent chonge in total U.S. money supply (demand deposit?
plus currency) (M).-- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Depart-
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).--De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
121, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Euro-
pean Countries, index of Industrial production (M).--Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
Statistical Office (London)
123* Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, Index of Industrial production (M).»Deutsch(
Bundesbank (Frankfurt)
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
126.
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).-Department of De-
fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).-De-
partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
France, Index of industrial production (M).—Statistical Office
(Paris)
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).--Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(M)."CentraJ
127. Italy, Index of Industrial production (M).--Organization for Eco-
nomic Cooperation and Development
1.3. Japan, Index of industrial production (M).-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment by
compiler and Bureau of the Census
...
United States, Index of Industrial production (M).--See series
47.
93. Free reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings)
(M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).--F. W. Dodge
Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit. Federal income and product account (Q).--De-
partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96* Manufacturers* unfilled orders, durable goods Industries (EOM).~
Deoartment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Q).--National
Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
DIFFUSION INDEXES
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the snme
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above
for Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sources foe
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank
98. Percent chonge in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).—
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
99. New orders, defense products (M).—Department of Commerce
Bureau of the Census
110. Total funds raised by private nonffnancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
111. Gross retained earnings of nonflnanclal corporations (Q).--
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
D35.
D36.
D48.
D58.
of New York; no seasonal adjustment ofseriestomponents.
Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Net soles, total manufactures (QJ.--lXin and Brad ureel, Inc.:
no seasonal adjustment
New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Pun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
Freight corloadings (Q).—Association of American Railroads;
no seasonal adjustment
Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--Departmen: of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by bureau
of the Census
@FedFRASER