Full text of Business Conditions Digest : August 1963
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AUGUST1963
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH JULY
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretory
Developments
AUGUST 1963
DATA THROUGH JULY
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Sea mm on, Director
A. ROSS ECKLER, Deputy Director
HOWARD C. GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE Jr., Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
CALVERT L DEDRICK, Chief/International Statistical Progrdrns Office
JOHN C. BAKER, Public Information Officer
Office of the Chief Economic StatUtlclan
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief
SAMUEL L. BROWN, Assistant Chief
Series ESI No. 63-8
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to these agencies in the list of series and sources on the back cover of
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Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis . It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important clas ses of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes . Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies. Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible.
Publication is scheduled for around the 20th of the month
following the month of data.
i
New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made from
time to time to reflect the change' from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation to other series,
changes in components of indexes, etc. These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Revisions back to 1959 are shown throughout
the report for new private nonfarm dwelling units
started (series 7) and index of new private housing
units authorized by local building permits (series
29) . These revisions result from a new seasonal
adjustment. Revisions back to 1953 are shown for
newly approved capital appropriations (series 11)
and backlog of capital appropriations (series 97).
These revisions result from a new seasonal adjustment for series 97 and for one of the components
of series 11.
2. The latest figure shown for series 19 and 23
is an average of figures obtained for the latest 3
clays instead of the latest-day figure as shown in
previous issues.
3. Appendix G shows historical data for series
13, 20, and 25.
The September issue of Business Cycle Developments is scheduled for release on September 20.
ii
Contents
Page
Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue
i
ii
Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3
*.
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
4
5
Basic Data
Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
C . NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
Table 1. — Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January I960 to
Present
6
11
14
15
18
20
Analytical Measures
Table 2.—Recent Changes for Business Cycle Series
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During
Recent Months Compared With Periods, Around Previous Business
Cycle Peaks
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Chart 3.—Diffusion Indexes —Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present .
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Rising) for 12 Major Economic
Activities: January I960 to Present
•
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing Activities: January I960 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified
Time Spans and Percent of Series Rising: July 1962 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
B. (D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods
Industries
C. (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
E. (D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance,
State Programs
F. (D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
G. (D47) Index of Industrial Production
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores
iii
30
32
33
34
35
36
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Contents
Cyclical Pattens
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9
Most Recent Expansions
,
•••*
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as
Measured at Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates
in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change from
Specific Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After
the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
48
53
57
58
5\
Appendixes
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of
Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B.—Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
Appendix C . —Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for
Monthly and Quarterly Business Cycle Series
Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1962
to December 1963)
Appendix E.—Summary Description of X-9 and X-10 Versions of the
Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (not shown this
month)
Appendix F.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 (not shown
this month)
Appendix G. —Historical Data for Selected Series
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes .
.,,. *
61
62
63
65
66
67
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
Experimental work for this report was carried out in collaboration
with the National Bureau of Economic Research which is responsible for
much of the early research in this field. *rhe book, "Signals of Recession and
Recovery, " contains an explanation of research findings helpful in interpreting current cyclical trends, a more detailed description of the indicators and
measures used, and additional historical data. This book was issued as
Occasional Paper 77 of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 261
Madison Avenue, New York 16, N . Y . (207 pages, price $ 3 ) . Other references, both to historical studies and current interpretations of the indicators,
appear in this book.
v
Descriptions
and
Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Intensive research over many years has provided
a record of the typical sequence of changes in economic processes during a business cycle; more
specifically, a list of significant series that usually
lead, those that usually move with, and those that
usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. The series have been grouped,
in accordance with the NBER classification, as
"leading,11 "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators. In addition, other series are included in
this report for a more complete coverage of the
national economy. The series are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series .
Other series.—Additional U.S. series with business cycle significance are also shown. Some of
these series, such as change in money supply,
merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
deficit, represent important factors in the economy,
but they have not qualified as indicators for various
reasons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally,
industrial production indexes for several countries
whichhave important trade relations with the United
States are presented.
Method of Presentation
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table 1).—Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 2-6).—
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( l) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, ( 2 ) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and ( 3 ) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Seasonal Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series
are as follows:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
1
Descriptions and Procedures
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $ 100,000 and over
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing
81. Index of consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to the public
83 . Federal cash receipts from the public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91» Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
128. Japan, index of industrial production
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the Bureau of the Census or the
NBER. The adjustment factors used are shown in
the appendix table D, except for series 97 which is
the sum of seasonally adjusted components, and
series 9 which is based on unpublished source data.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the collecting
agency will be substituted for the series mentioned
above whenever they are published.
MCD Moving Averages
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
^he cyclical movements in a monthly series. This
upan is usually longer than a single month because
month-to-month changes, are often dominated by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used 12-month span (change from the same month
ei year ago), and is different for different series
(see appendix C for MCD values and method of
computation) .
MCD is an average, the first interval of months
fDr which the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and
remains so.
It is small for smooth series and
large for irregular series.
The differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD
are commensurate with the differences between
seasonally adjusted values separated by the same
MCD span; thus, the menth-to-month differences
in a 3-month moving average are commensurate
with differences in seasonally adjusted values over
3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have
about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular
series, such as business failures and Federal cash
payments, will show their cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for
svich smooth series as industrial production and
personal income.1 MCD moving averages are shown
for some series in chart 1. To provide an indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted for years
beginning with 1960.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary
seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are
usually larger than those computed from historical
series and shown in appendix C.
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Four kinds of analytical measures are presented— rates of change, diffusion indexes, tinning
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
meaisures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.—There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. 2 For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Rates of change are helpful
in judging and appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-tomonth rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises.
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over
*For a more complete description of MCD and its
use in studying economic series, see Business
Cycle Indicators t Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1,
ch, 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting/ 1 by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University
Press: 1961) .
2
Various terms are used to describe the phases
of the business cycle. In this report both "contraction" and "recession" are used to describe
the declining phase. No difference in meaning is
intended.
Descriptions and Procedures
1 -morith intervals (January-February, FebruaryMarch, etc.) and generally for either 3- or 5-month
intervals depending upon the irregularity of the
series. Quarterly series are shown at 1-quarter
or 4-quarter intervals.
The indexes based on 1month intervals are more "current" but they are
also more irregular than the 3- or 5-month indexes
(see chart 2) . Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes. When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered M D6 M is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 16 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41,D47,D54,
and D58) . Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over 1-month and
either 3- or 5-month spans while, for 1 indicator
(D58), comparisons are over 1-month spans only.
The 12 other diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely related to the above 9 indicators.
They include two indexes on capital appropriations
(602 companies and 15 industries)—NBER indexes
based on data from the National Industrial Conference Board; the Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based on monthly reports of changes
in profits (200 companies); and First National City
Bank of New York index based on quarterly profit
reports (700 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexe s — actual and anticipated—for the following:
Manufacturers' sales (800 companies) and new
orders (400 companies), based on data from Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity
groups), based on data from the Association of
American Railroads; and new plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries), based on data from
the Office of Business Economics and the Securities
and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning
point. Each month a timing distribution is constructed which shows the number of series reaching high values during each month of the expansion.
The timing distribution is summarized by showing
the number of series reaching new highs and the
percent currently high for each of several recent
nionths (see table 3) . Similar distributions of
"lows" will be prepared during contractions .
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident
series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before
the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
expansions and at their peaks .
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions.) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is
taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table 1) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks . Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables. —Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes. These
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Directions of change for each index component
are shown for consecutive months and, depending
upon the irregularity of the series, for either 3- or
5-month spans .
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
Descriptions and Procedures
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle.
Contractions are compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle
peak to the current month and over equal spans
from previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is designated as representing changes from
reference peak levels and from reference peak
dates .
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In this report the current expansion is related
to the May I960 reference peak. For earlier expansions , percentage changes are also computed
from their respective reference peaks to dates
which are the same number of months beyond the
succeeding reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of
comparison is designated as representing changes
computed from reference peak levels and from
reference trough dates. Although the spans from
reference trough dates are the same for each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak dates
are different, depending on the length of the contractions . This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares in this respect with
earlier recoveries .
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates. This type of comparison
measures the extent of the rise from the trough
level so many months after the upswing began.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series), comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for
each series. For example, the specific peak in
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock
prices is July 1959.
Recent performance in several individual indicators is compared graphically with that in earlier
business cycles. In making graphic comparisons,
the reference peak or trough levels are set equal
to 100, and the reference peak or trough dates are
alined depending on the phase of the business cycle.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only
approximate. Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919. The principal cases of this
sort are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment
in manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production
worker wage cost per unit) .
Charts
Two types of charts are used to highlight the
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators:
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series (charts 1, 2, and 3) .—
These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of each
series against the background of expansions arid
recessions in general business activity from 1948
to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts
indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of
shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates
(ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession will be entered only after a trough has been
designated.
Five ratio scales and several arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the
various series. The scale selected for each series
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of
change of various series can be compared with
each other only where scales are identical. See the
diagram, page 5, for additional help in using these
charts .
Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) .—These
charts compare the performance of each series
during the current expansion or recession with that
during the corresponding phase of previous business
cycles. In these charts the usual date sequence
followed in charts is disregarded, and instead the
data are alined at a strategic point of the business
cycle, either the trough or the peak. Thus these
charts facilitate judgements on the vigor of a current expansion or the severity of a current recession relative to cyclical movements during the
corresponding phases of previous cycles.
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made.
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current business or reference cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the
corresponding phase of previous reference cycles.
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases
of previous specific cycles in that series. In both
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, the
levels of the preceding peaks are also alined and
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs are
also alined. See the section, "Comparisons of
Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions
of these comparisons.
Descriptions and Procedures
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
entTof recession and beginning
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted
("5"-May)
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Such data may be the
table-1 figures, MCD moving
averages, or diffusion indexescharts 2 and 3.)
Broken lines indicate table-1
data for series where an MCD
moving average* is plotted
Parallel lines indicate a break
in cojitinuity--e.g., data not
available, change in sample reported, change in base used for
computations, etc.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted
' = first quarter)
See bock coyer for complete
titles and sources of series
Dotted line indicates anticipated
,61. Bus. expend., new plant
and equip, (bit. dol.)—Q
Solid line with quarterly
plotting points indicates
quarterly data
Various.ratio and arithmetic scales
are^jsea1 to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. '"Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-l" is
a semilogarithm scale with 1 cycle;
""scale L-2", a semilogarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
^Certain irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages. These series are noted. Such averages are plotted 2 months behind actual data for
MCD 5-term moving averages and 2& months behind, for MCD 6-term moving averages. See text for description of MCD moving averages.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948
TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators
1. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg, (hrs.)
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
30. Nonagr. placements, all Indus, (thous.)
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per TOO employees)
inverted scale
4. Temp, layoff, all Indus, (thous.)-inverteid scale; MCD moving avg.— 5-
w-v-vK:,:
<:•: A.jt;
5. Av, weekly initial claims, State unempl
insur. (thous.)--inverted scale
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
New investment commitments
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
6. New orders, dur. goods indus
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus. (bil._<jol.)j
•'•vvv
•"•'
9, Constr. contracts, com, and indus. (mil. sq. ft. floor area)
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dot.)
11. New capital appropriations, mfg. (bil
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (mil.)
29. New bldg. permits, private housing unitsfc" •"•
(index: 1957-59=100)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
New businesses and business failures | "2
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)
"•V,""
;$
13. New bus. incorporations (thous. *
14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.)inverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term |sj
15, Large bus. failures (no. per wk.J-inverted scale; MCD moving avg.— 6-term :'"
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
35
30
25
20
16. Corporate profits, after taxes (bil. dol.)-Q '::'-
15-
120
110
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.(index: 1957-59=100)
5
100 §
90
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg. (cents)-Q J.-\t
12
10
8
6
20
16
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate^ :
all industries (percent)-Q
. t J.
(
i
12
8
80
70
60
50
40
19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
30
20
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952
V953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
i
Basic Data
10
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
Inventory investment, buying policy and sensitive prices
21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus. (bil. dol.)—Q
:;|31. Change in book value, mfg.:
•;^5:;;and trade inventories (bil. dol.)
20. Change in book value, mfrs. inventories of pyrch
mtls. (bil. dol.
Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
.
<Jr>y
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
'•;:;::y;:
32, Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
v:;:i:f:"/
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol
-::.•:-:.:':;
23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)
-J
1 948
1 949
1 950
T951 1 952
1 953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1 954
1 955
1 956
1 957
1 958
1 959
1 960
1 961
1 962
1 963
80
11
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Apr,)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (mil.)j.
•• .t •".
..'"•T*;
Employment and unemployment
42. Total nonagr. employment (mil.)
43. Unemployment rate (percent)-inverted scale
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent)--inverted scale
45. Av. weekly insured unemployment rate ;W.,
v
(percent)--inverted scale
:-:.J
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957 = 100)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
1961 1962 1963
Basic Data
12
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
(May) (Ftb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
•rr-ri^x
.„;„;; •.•:.-.•
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (bildol.)-Q
49. GNP in current dollars (bil. dol,)-Q
— 300
_J 250
1948
1949 1950
1951
1952 ,1953 1954
Sec "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
13
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
2.2
Income and trade
2.0 ~
1.8 §
>;-••
51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. dol.)
1.6
475
450
4257
52. Personal income (bi! dol.)
i
400*
375
350
325
53. Labor income in mining, rnfg., constr. (bil. dol.)
120
115
110
105 _
100 2
-£
o* o
VO
o
90
85
80
21
20
19
18 ~
17 2
16 y
54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)
15
14
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods:./'
(index: 1957-59=100)
110
100
-j
Wholesale prices
90 "8
80
1948 1949 1950
1951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958
See 'How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
Basic Data
14
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
{Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(F«b.)
P
T
• : 61. Bus, expend., new plant and equip, (bil. dol.)—Q
Investment expenditures
40
- 30
y •".-.-; 62. Labor cost per tnit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
Cost per unit of output
63. Labor cost^er dol. of real GNP (index 1957-59-lOO)-Q
L.;':
;••;"*;>?
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dot.}!... .
y/f^
65.
Book' value of' mfrs.'
inventories,
finished
goods
'
............
.
.
.,,.,.._.
•""'/:": ^ Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
• '-'''.:
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
67. Bank rotes on short-term bus. loans (percent)-Qy'
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961, 1962
1963
15
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bit. dol.)
:;•>•• ivfvv87. General imports (bil. dol.)
Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol.}
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S
of payments (bil. dol.)-Q
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957 1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
16
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(May) (F*b,)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T_
120
82. Fed. cash payments to public (bil. dol.)V-?/»v
MCD moving average— 5-term
Federal budget and military obligati
83. Fed. cash receipts from public (bil.
MCD movinji average—5-term
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol.) p"vmoving average-5-term
' "
95, Surplus of deficit
1
Fed. Income and prod.:v:
acct. (bil. dol.)-Q ^-.:
90. Defense Dept, oblig,, procurement (bil.
MCD moving average- 6-term
dol.)
91. Defense Dept. oblig., total (bil. dol.)
MCD moving average— 5-term
_fi
>:^S
"**&«.":
92, Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.)
MCD moving average-6-term :•;;'":'
-• i.o
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts , 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
17
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con,
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
»•"! '.') 85. Change in money supply (percent)
| 7[
98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent):;
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.)>
rices (index: 1957-59=100)
V.—v»r »•••»""
'
94. Construction contracts, value (index:
*$?£
...fv:
1957-59=100)
1
I
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.)f]
JfXIvM!
\
v-Sy.^xx
,..Ci*
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg, (bil. dol.) -Q
-J 4.0
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 1, and 3," page 5.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
18
Basic Data
I CHART 1 |
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
^J
(Nov.)
P
(May)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Oct.)
T
(F«b.)
T
Industrial production indexes
140
120
121. OECD countries (index: 1957-59
100
80
60
140
122. United Kingdom {index: 1957-59
120
100
1
80
123. Canada (index:
120
1957-59=100}
CM
too •*
80
140
States (index: 1957-59=100) Jg
pp
120
100
80
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
19
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
JL
(May)
<F«b.)
P
T
140
• - ; - ; 125. West Germany (index: 1957-59=000)
120
w
^t
100 "I
80
200
180
160
140 2
120 §
100
80
160
140
CM
126. France (index: 1957-59-100)
120
80
160
140
120
100
CM
80 i
60
40
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3, * page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
20
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by GO; the reverse la
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p n » preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available.
NBER Lead in g Indicators
Year and
month
1960
January. .......
February
March
April.
l»fey
July
August * •*...*. •
September
1. Average 2. Accession 30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
rate, manuworkweek of rate, manu- cultural
production facturing
placements t facturing
workers ,
all indusmanufactries
turing
(Per 100
(Per 100
(Hours per
employees )
prod . wkr . ) employees )
( Thous . )
40 4
40.1
39 9
39 8
40 1
39.9
39.9
39 6
39 4
39 5
39.3
©38 5
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.7
3,6
38
3 7
3.6
3.5
©3.3
30 A
/ n
3 0
506
535
513
504
494
482
460
488
473
460
461
455
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.'i
2.6
2.9
4. Number of
persons on
temporary
layoff, all1
industries
5. Avg. weekly
initial claims
for unemployment insurance,
State programs
6. Value
of
mfrs. 1 new
orders, durable goods
industries
24, Value of
mfrs . ' new
orders, machinery and '
equipment
industries
(Thous.)
( Thous . )
(Bll. dol.)
(Bil. dol,}
122
110
116
156
160
145
177
154
153
166
128
183
281
271
303
294
316
322
335
363
351
373
385
381
14.19
14.80
14.64
14.47
14.68
14.34
13.84
14.41
14.62
13.74
13.60
13.22
5*04
5.14
5.06
5.12
5.17
5.01
4.78
4.96
4.87
(D4.65
4.81
4.66
1961
February .......
March
April
May
June
July. ,
August
3Q
3Q
3Q
3Q
3Q
/A
3
3
7
ft
Q
n
40 o
3Q A
40 2
November
December
1962
March
April
tfeV
40 6
/n i
39.8
40 3
40 5
040 8
40 6
1963
January
February
March
April.
May
July
Aueust
2 Q
173
3Q3
©12 88
fT) o Q
fpiOOO
01 e
(T\i OQ
1 3 3A
yA7
A
/
0
(dy / n
y 7ft
3 Q
/ 07
4
4
A
/
T
3
4
7
/
/ si
c-i n
CAO
cp7
•a eft
0*5 1
1 Q
0
13A
2
i on
1 7
1 ft
T 1 Q
3<V
1 A A7
IT C
qne
iA in
OQA
1 A oy
304
2Q1
16.43
5 78
279
280
16 19
16 00
15 71
<i ^Q
6 A7
300
IS Q7
5 60
onQ
1r
•a Aft
1A 5*7
OAO
1 *? Ql
qnn
on A
QQO
1.9
19
16
16
18
40
/n
/n
AO
2
-a
/
3
3
3
i
4-
Q
0
i
2
r /Q
£
3 9
r>/ O A
_o 7
5S?
5A1
520
—/ A A
fNft ^
ecy
ir\ i
i *^n
i ^i
im
565
578
(HI 602
c. A,
560
551
C/ A
569
5A3
T
7 n
2 L
2 6
o n
T
8
1 Q
COQ
P 0
55A
5/7
2 0
18
l A
Ol 6
CCA
-1 A
2 n
2 p
2 r
4 4
568
1 3 ft9
oo
001
2
550
37Q
7O
OA
111
Cy /
3
AO 3
5
2
5
1
0
e/o
1
3
A
3
Q
1
0
A
0
A
5
AO
40
AO
40
Q
4
4
5
1 Q
/ O
0
A
A
A
/
3
A
A
3
/
3
3
/ A tL
July
August
SpptembeTt - , » , .
October
fHl>
y
//o
/ 1Q
154
082
118
112
116
n/
128
i 31
i ?n
1 9Q
1 3Q
U
U
U
7Q
01 A
1 <\
A3
ooQ
i <t ^y
Q/ ft
0-17
QA
1 K. HO
yy
/
O*3
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
17
OA
00
CC
1 (C
cQ
rti
1 ft
*i 71
*; Ao
5
71
1 *» ftQ
1 A 17
5
AQ
1A ^/
T A AO
5 OC
5 7y
c An
^ A9
1 70
31 A
112
QQC
i Aft
(771 O*79
poo
007
[El 17 89
nl 7
146
07
ftc
5 OQ
5 ft/
6 rn
Oiift
rrn_A on
?MA)
**1 •? Q*3
•J OA
9ftA
Yil ^7 *2T
A iy
po.14
_1 *7
2ooc .
1A 71
17 OQ
17 y A
«i nr fjA
e 7c
T»A
1>
October
November
1
BegInning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962,
the 2 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Week ended August 10, 1963.
Basic Data
21
Table 1,-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESEKT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by (H]; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3 t 4, 5 t 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p". preliminary; "e11, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
9. Construction contracts
awarded for
commercial and
industrial
buildings
Year and
month
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations ,
602 manufacturing corporations
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
Revised1
1960
February
March
April
May
June
July
October
November
37.32
36.93
36.73
38.73
39.25
40.31
38.87
39.38
38.96
39.44
39.44
38.15
5.56
5.69
5.61
5.72
5.78
5.58
5.39
5.58
5.51
©5.27
5.39
5.28
36.21
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61
41.69
5.53
5.45
5.58
5.53
5.73
5.90
5.82
6.13
5.97
6.16
6.42
6.02
38.99
44.10
45.19
40.87
45.39
42.99
39.86
42.65
39.90
41.62
41.68
42.48
6.34
6.38
6.31
6.11
6.27
6.29
6.37
6.29
6.24
6.24
6.50
6,59
44.94
46.98
38.92
37.87
47.95
0 53 .97
(NA)
6.36
6.51
6.37
6.63
0r7.02
p6.91
2*27
.*•
2.02
. •»
©1*78
2*10
7, New private 29. Index of
nonfarm dwel- new private
housing units
ling units
authorized by
started
local building permits
(Ann. rate,
thous . )
Revised1
1,444
1,508
1,107
1,252
1,249
1,231
1,184
1,285
1,113
1,210
1,192
©1,041
(1957-59-100)
Revised1
100.2
98.2
86.0
93.9
95.4
88.1
91.5
87.8
88.4
89.9
90.8
©87.0
12. Net change
in business
population,
operat ing
businesses
13. Number
of new business incorporations
(Thous.)
(Number)
i
+19
•. .
+17
••.
+14
•.*
+10
16,561
15,274
15,233
15,280
15,176
15,630
15,828
15,114
. 15,112
15,035
14,264
14,097
1961
February
April
May
July
September. .....
December
1962
February
April
fcfcy
July
August
September
October
December
t
1.84
1.93
2*. 23
2*10
...
2 *34
2.02
2.41
02.71
1,216
1,199
1,305
1,133
1,215
1,340
1,305
1,252
1,453
1,381
1,319
1,324
89.5
88.2
91.3
91.4
93.2
98.7
98.9
101.9
100.2
104.2
101.8
99.0
1,392
1,253
1,460
1,489
1,501
1,366
1,423
1,459
1,328
1,491
1,564
1,541
102.8
109.8
105.0
111.5
103.7
107.1
108.6
106.3
110.2
109.5
114.9
114.5
:
<Q+6
+10
• ••
+10
+ib
...
+ii
•. .
...
+12
+11
+11
©13,607
14,570
14,658 .
15,327
15,298
15,431.
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
016,149
15,711
15,279
15,775
15,727
15,372
15,363
14,990
15,171
15,216
15,232
15,121
14,892
14,767
1963
February ..."....
March
April
May
.".
July
August. ,
...
2.16
(NA)
(NO
"New Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
1,317
1,353
1,549
1,590
511,590
1,543
1,497
110.0
109.3
112.9
111.3
117.9
0120.5
114.4
+ii
EH] +12
14,457
15,398
15,604
15,257
r!5,756
15,512
(NO
22
Basic Data
Toble 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES; JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-ContinwM*
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (£) and current highs, by GO; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures
(Mil. dol.)
15. Business 16. Corpofailures with rate profits
liabilities after taxes
of $100,000
and over
17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
index
(Number per
week)
(1957-59100)
(Ann. rate,
Ml. dol.)
18. Profits 22. Ratio,
(before tax- profits to
es) per dol. income origsales, all inating, cormfg, corpo- porate, all
rations
industries
( Cents )
( Percent )
21. Change in
bus. inventories, farm and
noiif arm, after
valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
(1941-43-10)
bil. doi.)
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks**
1960
February
Hferch
April
May
July
September
October
November
52.88
57.60
61.57
63.71
76.52
©131.31
71.04
94.66
86.02
85.98
80.44
82.78
29
27
30
30
32
36
38
36
43
©43
37
41
77.79
83.73
116.17
76.88
82.96
86.69
80.15
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
0371.81
38
41
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38
101.53
86.03
74.89
108.58
94.54
91.70
107.48
132.64
103.73
122.39
98.94
90.41
37
(B332
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
153.15
90.04
93.49
89.72
122.31
89.37
142.28
49
42
41
40
54
38
38
24^1
22.6
2(X9
2o!i
103.6
102.3
101.9
101.4
100.8
100.4
100.4
99.9
99.9
100.0
99.9
98.9
s!a
9*.7
516
•.*
9'.1
7.' 8
B.I
7\2
•*•
B.I
©6!6
©7.7
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55.22
57.26
55,84
56.51
54.81
©53.73
55.47
56.80
+9'.3
+4^2
+2!?
-23
1961
March
April
Mav
July
August
October
November
December
1962
January
February
April
May
July
August
September . , , , . .
October
November
December
©19 .'2
21.6
22^6
24^3
24^2
24^6
24^3
02515
99.2
©98.9
99.0
100.0
100.2
100.9
101.2
102.6
102.2
102.0
101.7
102.1
101.2
101. 0
101.4.
100.6
101.1
100.7
101.3
100.0
102.4
loi.;)
101.3
100.9
7\6
•..
•..
7.9
s!5
8^5
[Hjsio
\m9\3
B*.2
9ll
s!i
•..
9ii
8.1
•.•
8J9
8 '.3
•.•
9*.!
7. *9
9JL
59.72
62.17
64.U
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
Offl71.74
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
©-4.*3
+I!i
+3 \5
+Y.2
(HH-sil
+6i5
+1.6
H!O
1963
March
April
May
June
July
25^4
(NA)
September
October
Average for August 13th, Uth, and 15th, 1963.
100.7
100.0
100.8
rlOO.6
r!02.1
G3rl02.9
plp2,7
(NA)
(M)
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69,07
^l.OS
*s!i
r+4.*3
Basic Data
23
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are Indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are Indicated by CD and current highs, by (H]; the reverse Is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships
or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e11, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA.11, not available.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
31. Change In
book value of
manufacturing
and trade inventories ,
total
(Ann. rate,
bll. dol.)
Year and
month
20. Change in 37. Purchased
book value of materialsf
mfrs . < inven-percent retories ,
porting higher
purchased
Inventories
materials
( Percent
(Ann. rate,
bll. dol.) reporting)
26. Buying pol^ 32. Vendor
25. Change In
icy, production performance , manufacturers!
matls., percent percent
unfilled orreporting com- reporting
ders, durable
mitments 60
slower
goods indusdays or longer* deliveries*
tries
( Percent
( Percent
reporting)
reporting)
(Bll. dol.)
23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices*
(1957-59=100)
1960
+11.4
4-3.2
4-8.5
4-2.3
-1.5
40.4
-0.6
4-2.4
-2.1
-6.2
+4.6
+1.5
40.8
+1.0
+0.4
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-3.2
-2*4
©-3.4
-0.4
48
58
52
47
44
45
42
37
41
38
-5.8
-3.2
©-8.7
+4.1
+0.7
+0.4
+4.5
+1.8
13+7.8
+4.2
+6.1
+5.0
+12.8
39
64
64
56
61
55
57
54
50
49
50
50
©48
44
30
©27
28.
32
34
36
40
41
39
38
38
4). 52
-0.78
-0.77
-0.68
-0.19
-0.22
-0.24
-0.17
-0.13
©-0.77
-0.41
-0.30
-0.3
-1.0
+0.1
-0.1
+0.8
-2.2
+1.1
+0.2
+3.0
+0,5
+0.9
+1.3
41
©35
39
42
46
43
46
54
57
56
52
55
51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54
38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53
-0.37
-0.02
+0.02
+0.46
+0.23
+0.11
+0.31
+0.35
+0.06
+0.29
+0.34
+0,55
97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
(El 104. 4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0
+7.6
+6,-,
+4.2
+2.5
+3.1
+4.3
+3.3
-3.0
+5.7
+3.8
-1.9
+3.1
(1+5.0
+2.2
+2.9
+1.0
+0.2
-1.0
-1.5
-1.7
-0.1
-0.8
-0.9
+0.7
058
57
57
55
53
48
45
46
44
45
49
48
57
EHJ61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51,
56
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.53
+0.22
-0.10
-0.34
-0.31
-0.32
-0.05
-0.57
-0.55
-0.18
-0.52
+0.05
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
+3.3
+1.9
+4.7
+2.8
r*3.8
p+6.4
+1.1
+1.0
•*-0.3
+1.0'
r-0.3
p+1.8
(HO
46
48
46
49
57
57
55
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
50
52
54
tBl 60
58
+0.31
+0.61
03 +1.42
-1-0.64
r+0.81
r-0.17
p-0.42
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
*94.1
4-11.7
ferch
April
Mflv
June • » •
Jvtly
September
*
December
•
1961
January
•
February ••**«..
March
April.
Mav. ..
Julv
September
*
October
* • **
Nov ei&b e r
*
December
1962
January
February * • • • • •
March
April. .
*. ..
tfev.
June ••« *••••••
JUly
Auirust
September. • * *
November * * * •
De cemb e r
1963
January
**
February • • * . •
March
April.
. ...
Mav
June ...».....••
July
CNA)
a
August
** • *
Sept ember
.
November
** • •
Average for August 13th, 14th, and 15th, 1963.
8
105.7
104.3
102.4
103.8
104.1
102.7
101.6
102.1
101.2
99.7
98.5
©96.8
Basic Data
24
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continwd
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, hy OH; the reverse ie
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only arid do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r!l indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
41 . Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
Year and
month
(Thous. )
42. Total 43. Unemnonagricul- ployment 1
tural em- rate, total
ployment ,
labor force
survey1
(Thoua. )
40. Unemployment
rate, married males1
(Percent)
( Percent )
45. Avg. weekly46. Index of 47. Index of
insured unem- help-wanted industrial
ployment rate, advertising production
State programs in newspapers
( Percent )
(1957-100)
(1957-59100)
50. Gross
national
product In
1954 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil, do!,)
1960
54,211
54,445
54,427
54,702
54,584
54,538
54,514
54,403
54,301
54,190
53,995
53,707
60,521
60,863
60,464
61,144
61,252
61,215
61,090
60,982
61,114
60,857
61,142
©60,801
5.29
4.96
5.45
5.21
5.18
5.46
5.48
5,66
5.60
5.98
6.20
6.60
3.38
3-11
3*53
3.35
3.42
3.60
3,72
3.85
3,80
4.28
4.22
4.74
4.27
4.17
4.54
4.26
4.19
4.39
4.67
5.10
5.38
5.68
6.27
©6.33
109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
90.1
89.4
82.6
84.6
82.2
©79.0
111.7
111,0
110.5
109,7
109,9
109.6
109.1
108.7
107.8
107.0
105.4
103.6
53,581
©53,485
53,561
53,663
53,894
54,182
54,335
54,333
54,304
54,385
54,525
54,492
60,980
60,912
61,314
61,111
61,091
61,448
61,254
61,283
61,330
61,476
61,766
61,788
6.68
7.03
6.82
7.01
©7.11
6.91
6.96
6.67
6.69
6.42
6.07
5.98
4.78
©5.09
4.72
4.91
5.00
4.78
4.74
4.61
4.54
4.12
3.94
3.91
6.15
6.32
6.26
5.91
5.61
5.32
5.29
5.22
5.10
5.04
5.08
4.81
79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
99.1
96.9
©103.3
103.4
103.8
106.6
108.8
110.9
112.0
113.4
112.0
113.5
114.8
115.6
54,434
54,773
54,901
55,260
55,403
55,535
55,617
55,536
55,583
55,647
55,597
55,580
61,882
62,148
62,356
62,295
62,552
62,541
62,715
63,017
63,074
63,036
62,708
63,248
5.84
5.69
5.49
5.58
5.52
5.50
5.43
5.67
5.63
(35.34
5.76
5.54
3.81
3.59
3.53
3.69
3.48
3.64
3.54
3.54
3.43
3.35
3.43
3.57
4.71
4.52
4.41
3.93
3.82
3.96
4.25
4.41
4.38
4.55
4.84
4.79
102.3
105.9
0106.3
106.1
106.0
98.5
97.9
97,0
92.8
96.8
95.9
e95.2
114.6
116.3
117.3
117.8
118.3
118.4
119.4
119.4
119.8
119.2
119.5
119.1
55,536
55,730
55,963
56,191
r56,436
r56,588
{Ep56,718
62,988
63,245
63,628
63,851
63,643
63,693
El 64, 137
5.77
6.09
5.59
5.65
5.91
5.66
5.61
3.81
4.04
3.50
3.37
3.37
(S3. 12
3.14
4.84
4.69
4.39
4.03
3.96
GJ3.53
4. OB
2
4.12
e97.5
elOO.5
e98.5
100.2
95.9
r94.7
p96.2
119.2
120.2
121.3
122.5
r!24.4
r!25.6
S)pl26.5
January
March
April
May
June
July.
August. . . . . , * * .
October
December •> - * , r t .
439. '9
442a
440.2
437^1
1961
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August • * . . , . . . .
September
October
December
©434.0
443^4
450.4
463.3
1962
January
February *
April
May
June
July
September T , r , , ,
October
November
December
-
467^8
474.6
475.' 6
481 ! 4
1963
January
February
March
April
May
July
August
September
October
November
December
,*
485 .*3
©r489.4
^•Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series,Prior to April 1962,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
Week ended August 3, 1963,
Basic Data
25
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
les are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
oy an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (p and current highs, by fiTI; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40t 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources1 are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "HA! , not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
1960
January
February
March
April
May
49. Gross na- 57. Final
tional product sales
(series 49
in current
minus 21)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
50o!4
491 ll
504!!
499 '.9
503.5
506!?
502*.!
504*4
©500*4
504!?
512*. 5
Sllli
521 '.9
518 '.3
537.8
530*5
February
March
April
544*5
536O
Nta v
552.4
546! 6
55^8
553*1
565*2
561.2
July
August
October
December
1961
January
March
April
May
June
July
August
51. Bank
debits outside
NYC, 343
centers
52. Personal
income
53. Labor
income in
mining, manufacturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
54. Sales of
55. Index of
retail stores wholesale
prices except farm
products and
foods
(Mil.
dol.)
(1957-59*100)
1,692.2
1,765.4
1,715.2
1,731.2
1,731.2
1,739.0
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3
305.0
395.6
395.9
400.8
402.3
403.0
402.7
403.5
404.4
405.2
404.5
©403.2
108.7
108.5
107.9
108.3
108.8
108.4
108.3
107.6
107.0
106.9
105.5
103.7
18,100
18,161
18,219
18,860
18,428
18,466
18,118
18,201
18,104
18,543
18,398
17,887
101.5
101.4
101.4
101.4
101.2
101.3
101.3
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.0
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9
404.4
405.3
410.1
411.7
4H.5
417.3
420.8
419.1
420.5
424.3
428.4
431.3
104.0
©103.3
104.2
106.0
107.1
108.5
108.9
108.5
108.3
110.1
111.7
111.8
©17,773
17,786
18,117
17,851
17,985
18,189
18,017
18,172
18,131
18,577
19,098
18,827
101.0
101.1
101.1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9
2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044-4
2,015.0
2,000.2
2,054.8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9
430.1
434.0
436.4
439.5
440.8
441.7
443.5
444.6
445.5
447.7
449.9
452.1
111.3
112.8
114.0
116.1
116.0
115.9
116.6
116.8
116.7
116.5
116.9
116.5
18,898
19,027
19,328
19,673
19,508
19,163
19,761
19,645
19,693
19,821
20,230
20,203
100.8
100.7
100.7
©100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.7
2,148.7
2,086.4
2,096.?
2,198.6
2,150.9
2,105.2
(H]p2,275.3
454.0
452.9
454.8
457.4
460.1
r462.6
[H]p464.3
116.4
117.1
117.8
119.4
120.8
r!21.6
QDP121.9
20,247
20,350
20,365
20,320
r20,249
r20,481
[H]p20,720
100.5
100.5
100.5
100.2
100.5
rlOO.8
0101.0
1
101.0
1962
June
July
September. . , . . »
December . . -, T » » t
1963
March
April
May
June
57i".8
366.6
(H) r 579* 6
Er575*3
July
October
1
Week ended August 13, 1963.
Basic Data
26
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-ContiniwJ
Serlef? are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by SO ; the reverse to
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The MrH indicates
revised; "p% preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; end "NA», not available.
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and
month
1960
65. Book value 66. Consumer
of mfrs. 1 in- installment
debt
ventories of
finished goods,
all manufacturing Indus.
61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment,
total
62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, total
manufacturing
63. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, total
GNP
64, Book value
of manufacturers1 inventories, all
manufacturing
industries
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
( 1957-59-100 )
(1957-59-100)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bll. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
53.3
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.0
55.1
54.9
55.0
54.7
54.4
54.0
53.7
20.4
20.6
20.8
21.0
21.2
21.3
21.4
21.6
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.8
38,971
39,452
39( 878
40,377
40,672
41,013
41,299
41,508
41,762
41,898
42 ,032
42,143
53.7
53.6
©53.3
53.4
53.4
53.4
53.5
54.0
54.4
54.8
55.0
55.2
21.8
21.8
21.7
21.7
21.5
21.5
©21.5
21.7
21.8
21.9
21.9
22.0
42,118
42,032
41,986
41,865
©41,856
41,900
* *#
4.97
41,959
42,008
42,170
42,439
42,787
4*99
55.7
56.2
56.6
56.7
56.8
56.9
57.0
57.0
57.2
57.3
57.2
57.4
22.1
22.1
22.2
22.2
22.3
22.4
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.7
22.8
23.0
43,066
43,338
43,716
44,209
44,648
45,069
45,455
45,813
46,015
46,399
46,980
47,438
57.5
57.7
57.9
58.1
58.4
GiJp58.8
(»)
23.0
23.0
23.2
23.2
23.3
H)p23.5
(NIV)
47,925
48,350
48,739
49,270
49,704
[M] 50, 137
(MO
.••
35.15
March
April
May
36*.3Q
June
July
September,
October
November
35.90
...
35.50
97.1
98.6
99.1
99.7
100.3
100.9
100.9
101.4
101.2
101.2
101.7
102.2
...
103.3
104*. 3
105.2
...
...
105.2
...
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
( Percent )
.. *
5.34
5*,35
4*. 97
...
...
4.99
...
1961
March
April
May
June . *
33! 85
©33^50
...
July
August
September
October. .......
34*70
.. •
35^40
December. ......
1962
February
March. .........
April
May
June .... *
35 '.70
36!95
July
August
September. .....
October
December
1963
March
April
May
June
July
September
December
038 !35
37*95
36! 95
*• .
a38.40
a39*.95
101.9
102.1
102.0
100.8
100.4
99.6
99.3
©98.1
98.4
98.5
99.1
98.7
99.4
99.5
99.0
99.9
99.7
100.1
99.7
0101.0
98.9
99.7
99.5
99.9
99.4
100.1
99.0
P99.1
r98.3
P98.1
P98.5
...
106.0
106.0
...
105 '.8
...
©104*7
105 .*8
106,5
...
107.1
...
106.6
107*1
El 108 3
a, 904
4*97
* <• .
(D4*.96
4*98
5*.6i
...
* **
4.99
»..
E}5!o2
5*06
5.01
Basic Data
27
Toble l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [H] ; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40t 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; »p», preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
Year and
month
86. Exports,
excluding
military aid
shipments ,
total
87. General
imports ,
total
88. Merchandise
trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)
89. Excess, 82. Fedreceipts(+) eral cash
or payments payments
(-) in U.S.to the
balance of public
payments
83. Federal cash
receipts
from the
public
84. Federal cash
surplus (+)
or deficit (-)
95. Surplus
(+) or deficit (-),
Federal income and
product acct.
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil. dol.)
1960
January
1,561.3
1,565.7
1,518.1
March
April
1,622.2
May
1,659.3
1,633.8
July
1,706.5
August . , , t . T T , T 1,624.8
1,647.2
1,667.6
1,680.6
November
December
1,645.3
1961
January
1,622.7
1,711.6
March
1,750.7
April
1,661.5
May
1,585.1
June
1,581.9
July
1,688.5
1,688.9
1,678.4
October
1,779.8
1,733.1
December
1,724.8
1962
January
1,654.8
1,812,1
March
1,674.4
April
1,802.6
toy
1,782.1
June
1,838.3
July
1,728.9
August
1,687.3
1,943.3
October
1,492.8
1,695.2
1,838.9
1963
982.1
2,130.6
March
1,990.8
April
.1,918.1Utev
1,900.5
1,813.6
July
(NA)
1,246.3
1,348.0
1,289.8
1,348.6
1,269.0
1,276.5
1,270.7
1,255.8
1,220.6
1,206.0
1,161.7
1,124.8
+315.0
+217.7
+228.3
+273.6
+390.3
+357.3
+435.8
+369.0
+426.6
+461.6
+518.9
+520.5
1,161.4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152.0
1,152.9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
1,308.5
1,314.5
+461.3
+561.8
+587.8
+509.5
+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3
1,327.4
1,315.4
1,339.3
1,363.8
1,386.4
1,342.4
1,361.8
1,364.2
1,476.4
1,318.9
1,431.7
1,371.9
+327.4
+496.7
+335.1
+438.8
+395.7
+495,9
+367.1
+323.1
+466.9
+173.9
+263.5
+467.0
1,093.2
1,493.2
1,484.3
1,423.3
1,406.2
1,410.2
(NA)
-111.1
+637.4
+506.5
+494.8
+494.3
+403.4
(NO
-775
•. .
-831
-1,018
^l,^?
-472
4H
-655
•. .
-1,274
-585
•. *
-452
-356
-793
-806
-1,300
89.9
97.8
91.9
,94.9
94.4
91.9
91.5
97,4
95.0
. 92.7
102.0
96.3
89.9
96.6
94.2
99.8
102.9
94.8
93.6
104.0
100.5
91.7
101.4
99.5
0.0
-1.2
+2.3
+4.9
+8.5
+2.9
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
-0.6
+3.2
95.5
95.4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106.5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106.5
104.3
94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101.3
101.7
-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11,1
-8.8 ,
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6
115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2
101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
104.4
111.2
110,1
107,6
107.8
109.0
109.0
-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2
116,7
106,5
117.0
118.0
116.2
106.7
126.1
107.7
109.8
106.9
110.1
113.9
112.2
114.9
-9.0
+3.3
-10,1
-7.9
-2.3
+5.5
-11.2
August,* T
September
Includes
single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
s
lncludes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States,
+8 \2
+5^2
+l!4
-i;2
-6. '6
-5^4
-4.0
-2^5
-5!6
-3 16
-3^6
-5^3
-4^6
(NO
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Mil. dol.)
937
1,104
1,020
983
1,488
1,397
2,204
1,256
1,256
945
1,468
1,096
1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
1,390
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,589
1,872
1,211
1,254
1,831
1,182
1,325
1,934
1,386
1,037
1,805
1,755
1,022
1,732
1,228
1,023
1,275
1,594
(NO
28
Basic Data
Tobl« 1.-BAS1C DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continu«d
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement* Unadjusted series are Indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by GD; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Year and
month
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
91. Defense 92. Mili- 85. Percent 98. Percent 93. Free 81. Index 94. Index 96. Mfrs,1
Department tary prime change in change in reserves* of conof conunfilled
obligations, contract total U.S. money supsumer
struction orders ,
total
awards to money
ply and
prices
contracts , durable
U.S. busi- supply
time detotal
goods inness firms
pos its
value
dustries
(Mil. dol. ) (Mil. dol.) ( Percent ) ( Percent )(Mil, dol.)
1960
March
April
May
July
August
September
October
November
December
1961
March
April
May
July
September
October
November
(1957-59* (1957-59*
100)
100)
(Bll.dol.) (Bil. dol.)
Revised1
102.3
93
47.56
*.«
102.5
46.77
93
102,6
100
46.00
7*92
102.9
105
45.32
103,0
45.13
97
103.1
108
7.*68
44,91
103.1
113
44.67
103.3
109
44.50
44.37
103.2
7.27
107
103.5
43,60
117
103.6
111
43,19
7.02
103.8
120
42.89
3,234
3,439
3,368
3,362
3,677
3,771
5,305
3,824
3,999
3,357
4,109
3,583
1,770
1,740
1,738
1,368
1,811
1,687
2,231
2,302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
40.21
40.36
40.07
40.07-0.14
40.28
-0.14
-0.38
-0.10
-0.00
-0.05
-0.05
40.53
40.67
40.38
40.47
40.28
40.52
-375
-365
-219
-194
-334-37
+120
4-247
3,641
4,065
3,537
3,381
3,727
3,893
3,784
5,344
4,874
4,296
4,121
4,476
1,944
2,153
1,757
1,910
1,530
1,993
2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281
+0.14
+0.28
+0.28
+0.21
4-0.21
0.00
4-0.07
0.00
+0.42
+0.49
+0.49
+0.55
+0.56
+0.74
+0.51
+0.46
+0.64
+0.36
+0.45
+0.32
K).58
+0.67
+0.62
+0.57
+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419
103.9
104.0
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5
108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119
42.52
42.49
42.51
42.97
43.20
43.31
43.62
43.97
44-03
44.32
44.66
45.21
4,488
3,990
3,914
4,402
4,126
4,019
5,026
4,623
3,968
4,914
r4,936
r3,785
3,073
2,135
2,225
1,885
1,808
1,808
2,068
2,488
2,242
3,089
3,154
1,758
+0.14
-0.27
+0.14
+0,27
-0.27
-0.07
+0.07
-0.41
+0.14
+0.55
+0.55
+0.68
+0'.79
+0.57
+0.82
+0.69
+0.21
+0.42
+0.!>1
+0.04
+0./+6
+0.34
+0.91
+1.03
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.2
105.4
105.4
105.5
105.6
105.9
105.9
105.9
105.8
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138
45.74
45.96
45.86
45.52
45.22
44.90
44.85
44.28
43.73
43.55
43.03
43.09
4,714
4,050
3,593
4,031
4,682
(NA)
2,390
2,674
2,157
1,786
2,165
(NA)
+0.54
-0.07
+0.20
+0.34
0.00
+0.27
jrt-0.60
+0.98
+0,44
+0..72
+0,52
+0,44
+0,47
p+0,75
+384
r+300
+271
+313
+248
r+141
p+148
106.2
106.2
106.3
106.2
106.4
106.7
(NA)
121
130,
118
125
144
135
(NA)
43.40
44.01
45.43
46.07
r46.83
r46.71
P46.29
4414
4480
4614
+669
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
6.*68
»..
6*55
6.58
6.*53
1962
February
May
June
July
Autrust
Septenib^T- T t T 11
October
November
•, .
6!s2
6^81
*• •
6^87
?!29
1963
March.. ^
April.. .".
May
July
August
September
October
'•See "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page :li.
7*01
(NA)
Basic Data
29
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by (TT1; the reverse is
true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 1-4, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do
not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available.
Internationa]L comparisons of industria*L production
1
121. OECD,
European
countries ,
index of
industrial
production
Year and
month
1960
fferch
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1961
January
122. United 123. Canada,
Kingdom,
index of
index of
industrial
industrial production
product ion
47. United
States ,
index of
industrial
production
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59*
100)
(1957-59*
100)
(1957-59*
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957- 59s
100)
(1957-59=
100)
111
112
114
113
114
116
118
116
116
117
118
118
109
109
110
112
112
111
111
112
112
112
110
112
109
107
108
105
105
105
104
104
105
105
105
105
112
111
110
110
110
110
109
109
108
107
105
104
113
113
115
115
116
118
118
115
118
120
120
122
* n?
108
108
110
110
111
112
112
115
m
115
114
117
119
119
120
119
120
120
119
120
121
122
123
109
110
110
111
110
113
113
111
110
109
109
109
104
105
105
107
107
109
109
111
112
112
114
114
103
103
104
107
109
111
112
113
112
114
115
116
124
125
126
126
124
121
122
121
124
123
124
128
122
108
113
1TR
1 py
123
12Z.
125
12A
12*5
1?5
127
•M n
111
110
113
11A
113
1 IC
11 A
117
118
118
118
,
March
April
May
July
September
December
1962
March
April
f-fey
June
July
September r , , * , r
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
126
127
127
125
126
126
128
130
(NA)
ii6
116
1 17
118
118
1 1Q
1 1Q
115
110
113
110
119
11Q
120
rllO
rill
r!13
rllA
115
(NA)
120
120
120
121
122
r!22
1 ?/
(NA)
September. . . . • .
October.
December
1
0rganization for Economic Cooperation arid Development.
-| TO
IT/
11Q
120
1 10
119
120
121
T "¥>
•\ ot
1 37
1P3
i/n
IP/
126
143
12*5
1Z.5
127
127
148
151
IpA
1PQ
1 51
1 57
129
158
115
116
116
116
117
117
118
118
119
119
119
122
130
134
134
134
136
136
138
137
140
145
149
148
162
160
166
166
172
175
179
182
183
187
190
191
126
i pp
1
/Q
±47
T PQ
123
i *;i
i on
i rtft
i?*;
124
r!28
123
12^.
123
125
i pc
126
rl?Q
r!30
r!30
•rl 31
r!3?
rl 3?
133
r!32
r!26
r!29
128
1 3?
1 39
1 32
139
p!26
(NA)
1 02
r>i
1 till.
IPP
123
:
128
128
126
127
127
117
1 ?Q
1 31
134
(NA)
11Q
1/n
1 Q3
i 51
T»1 Q/
1 53
T-1QA
1/7
1 51
iJ-4v
yQ
1 5O
1 53
15ft
iAn
r!58
155
rl6l
164
(NA)
T*1 Q/
1Q7
•rO Q?
1 Q?
rl Ql
r!93
199
rlQ7
206
?O3
(NA)
Analytical Measures
30
Toble 2.-RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those serle« that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that -rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3t 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-roonth percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, If the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.
Series
1962
Avg.
Msasurs change
of
Nov.
change 1948to
19611 Dec.
NBER LEADING .INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
-0.2
Percent . .0.5
workers, manufacturing
-2,8
6.0
..do
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
-6,0
3.4
30. Nonagrl. placements, all industries... ..do
11.9
-5,3
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted). ..do
4, Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (inverted)
" ..do
19.4 +18,0
5. A^g. weekly initial claims for unemployment Insurance, State (Inverted). . .do. . • 7.0
.•
-6.4
6. Value of manufacturers1 new orders,
-2.0
5.6
..do
durable goods industries
24. Value of manufacturers1 new orders,
machinery and equipment industries... . *do
6.1
-1.9
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings.. ..do
+1.9
12.4
10. Contracts and orders for plant and
equipment
..do
+1 4
6L
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
3
602 manufacturing corporations
11.2
..do
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units
started
-' 5
..do.. . 4 1
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg, permits,... ..do
3.9
-0.3
12. Net change in business population,
3
Thous ....
13. Number of new business incorporations. Percent. , 3.0
-0.8
14. Current liabilities of business
failures (inverted)
..do.
+8 6
16 3
15. No. of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over (inv.)....
..do
17.3
+11.9
16. Corporate profits after taxes3
..do
7.7
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.... ..do
0.7
-0.4
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of
..do
7.7
22. Ratio, prof its (after taxes) to income3
originating, corporate, all Indus. .. . .do
5.8
4V
2.6
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks
• •do
4.3
21. Change in bus. inventories, farm3 4and Ann. rate,
nonfarm, after val. adjustment .... bil.dol. 3.1
31. Change in book value of mfg. and
trade inventories, total*
+5.0
..do... . 4.0
20. Change in book value of mfrs.1 inventories, purchased materials*
+1.6
..do
1.7
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
-2 0
Percent. . 7.3
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent
report, commitments 60 days or more.. ..do
6.2
-1.9
32. Vendor performance, percent report0.0
..do
11.3
25. Change in rafrs.' unfilled orders,
durable goods Industries*.
Bll. dol 0 46 H-0 57
-0.6
23. Index of Industrial materials prices.. 'ercent.. 2.2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees In nonagricul0.4
tural establishments
. .do
00
42. Total nonagri cultural employment,
labor force survey
0 4 +0 9
, .do
43, Unemployment rate, total (inverted),., ..do
+3.8
4.7
5.8
40. Unemploy. rate, married males (inv.)., . . do
-4.1
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs ( Inverted )
. *do. .... 5.6 +1.0
See footnotes at end of table.
1?>63
Dec.
to
Jan.
Jan.
to
Feb.
Feb.
to
Mar.
+0.2
-0.2 +0.2
0.0 +5.1
+11.4
-2.0 +0.5
+5.5
0.0 +10.0 +11,1
-57.0 +37.4
+3.6
Mar.
to
Apr.
Apr.
to
May
May
to
June
June
to
July
+0.7
-7,1
-3.6
-6.3
0.0
-5.1
-7.3
0.0
-35.2 +40.4
+2.3
-52.9
-0.2
+2.4
+5.8
0.0
0.0
NA
+6.5
NA
+0.3
+6.6
+6.1
-4.0
+0.3
-0.3
+0.7
+4.3
+2.3
+2.3
+2 3
-1 1
-2 7
+0 3
+0.2
+2.4
-0.8
+2.9
+2.2
+1.0
-1.0
+5.8
+4.5
-17.2
-2.7 +26.6 +12,6
NA
-3.5
+2 L
+A. 1
-1 6
HA
00
-3 n
-3 n
+5.9
+2.2
-5.1
-2 2
-20.3
_!/ 5
-3.9
+^ 9
-32.4
+2 7
+2 6
-0.6
+3.3
-1.4
0.0
+6.5
-0.2
+14.3
-0.4
-0.7
+1 0
+2.4
+0.8
-35.0 +29.6
NA
-0.2 +1.5
+o.a
+2.4
-4.8
+3.9
0.0
+1.3
-17.1
NV
+1A *>
+1.3 -2.2 +3.3 -1.5
-69 L +41 2 -3 a +4 0 -36 3 +26 9
-2.1
July
to
Aug.2
NA
_CQ O
0.0
-0.2
NA
-0.4
+4.7
+1.1
NA
+2,0
0.0
-1.5
+2.9
-0.8
+0.2
-1 4
+2 8
-1 9
+1 0
+2 6
MA
+0.4
-0.1
-0,7
+0.7
-1.3
+2.1
Nil
-4.2
+4.3
-L 2
+6 5 +16 3
-2.0
+10.0
-1.8
-1.9
-1.9
+9.6
+4.2
+4.0
+3.8
+11.1
-3 3
-6 9 -22 2
00
-.3 *;
-5.3
+0.26 +0.30 +0 81 -0 78 +0 17 -0 98 -0 2*J
-0.7 +0.1 +0.7 -1.4 +0,3
-0.3
-0.4
-0 1
+0 1
+0 4
+0 4
+o 4.
4*0 3
+0 2
-0 4
-4.2
-6.7
+0 4 +0 6
-5.5 +8.2
-6.0 +13.4
+0 4
-1.1
+3.7
-0 3
+0 1
+0 7
-4.6
0.0
+4,2
+7,4
+0.9
-0.6
-1.0
+3.1
+8.2
+1.7
+6.4
+10.9
-15.6
-0.1
-1.0
Analytical Measures
31
Table 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.
Series
Avg, 1962
Measure change,
of
1948- Nov.
change 1961
to
1
Dec.
19£>3
Dec.
to
Jan.
Jan,
to
Feb.
Feb.
to
Mar,
Mar.
to
Apr.
-2.0
+0.9
+1.7
+1.0
+0.5
+0 4
+0.6
+0.1
Apr.
to
May
May
to
June
June
to
July
July
to
Aug.2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS— Con.
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
-0.7
+2.4
+3.1
Percent . * 3.3
1.2
+0.8
+0.1
-0.3
..do
Index of industrial production
+0.8
1.4
do
Gross national Droduct in 1954 dol
+1.2
1.9
do
Gross national product in cur dol
+1.0
1.6
do
Final sales (. series 49 minus 21 )
1.6
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers.. ..do
-1.1 +4.0 -2.9
+0 5 +0 4 -0 2
. . do
07
Labor income in mining, manufacturing,
-0.3
-0.1
..do
+0.6
l-.l
+0.2
1.6
-0.1
+0.5
. . do
Sales of retail stores
Index of wholesale prices except farm
0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
. . do
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
Business expenditures on new plant
-2.6
3.6
do
Index of labor cost per unit of
+0.4 -0.5 +0.7
* . do . .0.7
Index of labor cost per unit of out+0.5
.. do .... 1.0
Book value of mfrs.1 inventories, all
+0.3 +0.2
0.9
. . do
+0.3
Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
0.0
0.0
1.0
+0.9
finished goods, all mfg. industries.. ..do
+1.0
1.2
+1.0
+0.9
..do
Bank rates on short-term
business
-0.4
3.0
. .do
loans 19 cities3
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
Exports, excluding military aid ship3.7
+8.5 -46.6 +116.9
. . do
-4.2 -20.3 +36.6
3.5
. .do
Mil. dol. 58.6 +203.5 -578.1 +748.5
Excess of receipts or payments in
332
-13
. .do
-8.7
+0.4 +1.3
Federal cash payments to the public... Percent . .7.2
0.0 -1.2
+1.9
7.5
Federal cash receipts from the public. ..do
Ann. rate
-2.8 +12.3
-0.5
bil.dol. 5.7
Surplus or deficit, Federal income
+0.7
3.2
do
-41.8 +69.5 -29.1
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. Percent . .25.4
15.6 -23.3 +24.5 -H.I
..do
Defense Dept. obligations, total
47.
50
49
57
51.
53.
54.
55.
61.
62.
63..
64.
65.
67.
86.
89.
82.
83.
95.
90.
91.
92. Military prime contract awards to
0.0
-1.3
+1.0
+1.6
+0.7
+4-9
+0 6
-4.3
+1.6
+0.8
+1.4
+1.5
-2.2
+0 6
-2.1
+0 5
+8.1
+0 4
+1.4
-0.2
+1 2
-0.3
+0 7
+1 1
+0 2
+1 2
-0.3
+0.3
+0.3
+0.2
5
5
+4.0
+3.9
-1.1
+0.1
-0.8
-0.2
+0.4
+1.1
+0.3
+0.3
+0.5
+0.7
NA
+0.9
+0.8
0.0
+1.1
+0.4
+0.9
+0.9
+0.9
NA
NA
-0.9
-1.2
-0.5
-4.6
+0.3
-90.9
NA
NA
+0.2
-6.6
-3.7
-0.6
-4.1
-130.9 -11.7
NA
+9.9
-2.6
+0.9
+3.0
-494
-1.5
+3.5
-8.2
-1.5
+18.2
-13.4
+2.2
+5.6
+7.8
-16.7
+2.4
NA
-16.7 +24.6 +25.0
-11.3 +12.2 +16.1
NA
-19.3 -17,2 +21.2
NA
NA
29.2
-44.3
+35.9 +11.9
0.22
..do
Mil. dol. 138
Percent. . 0.3
8.3
94. Index of construe, contracts, total... . . do
1
2.1
96. Mfrs. unfilled orders, dur. goods.... ..do
rirt
6.3
98. Change in money supply including time
0.19
..do
+0.13
-205
-0.1
+12.2
+0.1
-0.14 -0.61 +0.27 +14.0 ^0.34 +0.27 +0.33
+116
+7
+42
-65 -107
-29
-84
+0.2
NA
-0.1
0.0 +0.1
+0.4
+0.3
NA
-6.3
+5.9 +15.2
-12,3
+7.4 -9.2
+3.2
-0.9
-0.4
+0.7
+1.4 +1.8
+1.4
NA
-3.8
..do
85. Change in money supply excluding time
x
+O.L? -0.05
-0.54
0.0
+0.28 -0.20
-0.03
+0.03 +0.28
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
among the series, beginning with the earliest date shown in chart 1 and ending on the date a revision
or new seasonal
3
adjustment made new computations feasible.
Percentage changes cover part of this period only.
Quarterly series;
figures show change from previous quarter and are placed in middle month of quarter. Thus the figure for GNP (series 49)
shown in the Jan.-Feb. column refers to the change from the 4th quarter of 1962 to the 1st quarter of 1963.
^m,^*
5
are the month-to-month (quarter-to-quarter) differences in the figures shown in table 1.
Anticipated.
Analytical Measures
32
Table 3.-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates—
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
July
1953
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948
May
1960
July
1957
Apr.
1953
Apr.
1957
Feb.
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
12
1
7
1
3
1
4
1
22
"i
2
2
14
2
1
3
2
1
3
4
20
**2
1
1
2
3
1
1
11
1
1
4
1
4
3
2
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
0
19
16
23
0
23
0
2
0
19
21
12
1
2
1
3
2
1
"o
33
4
1
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
3
1
2
1
1
1
3
1
1
2
1
4
1
2
4 months *
2 months
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was* reached
1
11
9
2
3
3
5
11
27
11
45
2
2
3
3
4
4
1
4
4
2
3
3
6
11
27
11
36
11
36
11
27
11
* 55
"*2
6th month before business cycle peak
Jan.
1953
May
1948
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
i
Current expansion
Apr.
1963
1963
June
1963
July
1963
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
6
1
7 months
6 months
4
2
3 months ••*.
2 months
*
2
2
1
Benchmark month
2
1
2
1
4
1
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
1
4
4
4
2
4
.3
1
1
2
2
16
23
4
23
9
1
18
6
17
1
1
1
13
a
13
12
2
I
3
*1
"2
*1
2
6
"2
3
5
*'?.
3
2
4
23
26
23
22
23
17
16
0
2
2
3
2
1
2
4
11
36
2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1
2
1
7 months
"2
4 months
3 months
*
*
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
4
2
4
2
1
5
2
3
6
5
3
2
3
"i
11
45
11
55
11
27
11
27
11
6
55
"6
11
55
"i
8
11
73
All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
fromX the distribution.
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.
33
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percentage
Dl. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs,, mfg. (21 Indus
[3-mo. interval ]
Expanding
D6. New orders, dur. goods Indus. (21 Indus.)
[5-mo, interval ]
D11. Newly approved capital appropriations:>:^N
i—* 602 cos. [4-quarter interval 3
— 15 indus. [1-quarter interval J |IV
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA, percent reporting
higher profits (200 cos.) [1-mo. interval ],£
3
rofits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
higher profits (700 cos.) [1-quarter interval ]p^
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (82 indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]
D23. Industrial materials prices (U indus. mtls.)
[3-mo. interval]
D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur,
(47 areas)—inverted
[5-mo, interval ]
1948
1949 1950
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1956 1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Analytical Measures
34
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
P
Percentage
Expanding
(May) (F«b.)
(July) (Apr,)
P
T
7
D41. Employees in nonage, establishments (30 Indus.)
[1-mo, interval ]
D47.
Industrial production (24 indus.)
[l*mo. interval ]
D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods (23 indus.)
[1-mo. interval]
054. Sales of retail stores (24 types of stores)
[5-mo, interval ]
1 948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Analytical Measures
35
CHART 3 • DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
Percentage
Expanding
Actual
Anticipated
Change in total carloadings
D35. Net sales, all mfrs. (800 cos.)§
[4-quarter interval]
:•:•:":•""">:•:•
::•."•>>:•
w":
D36. New orders, dur. goods mfrs. (400 cos.)
[4-quarter interval]
D48. Carloadings (19 mfrd. commodity groups)*
[4-quarter interval]
D61,
New plant and equipment expend. (17-22 indus.)
[1-quarter interval]
|J..U..I.i
t
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
Data are centered within intervals. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (July 1963)
D48 (June 1963)
D61 (May 1963)
Latest interval shown
Actual
Anticipated
2nd Q 1962- 2nd Q 1963
3rdQ 1961 - 3rd Q 1962
4th Q 1962- 1st Q 1963
4th Q 1962 - 4th Q 1963
3rd Q 1962- 3rd Q 1963
2nd Q 1963 - 3rd Q 1963
increase of 500,000 carloadings plotted at 100; no change at 50; decrease of 500,000 carloadings at 0.
1962
1963
Analytical Measures
36
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals; 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d
month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter;
1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in
indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index.
Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
Year and
month
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable goods
industries (21 industries)
1-month
interval
5 -mo nth
interval
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations
a. 602 com- b. 15 induspanies
tries
4*quarter
interval
1-quarter
interval
D33, Profits,
Chicago PAA
(200
companies )
1-month
interval
1960
March
April
May
July
August
October*
21.4
19.0
35.7
38.1
78.6
19.0
40.5
26.2
19.0
78.6
16.7
7.1
31.0 '
7.1
21.4
66.7
54.8
69.0
16.7
14.3
23.8
9.5
2.4
14.3
28.6
61.9
14.3
57.1
54.8
28.6
38.1
71.4
33.3
28.6
61.9
28.6
38.1
52.4
38.1
45.2
16.7
54.8
33.3
23.8
33.3
33.3
28.6
33.3
85.7
78.6
69.0
83.3
50.0
90.5
40.5
42.9
38.1
69.0
78.6
38.1
54.8
95.2
90.5
81.0
92.9
69.0
78.6
45.2
78.6
81.0
81.0
21.4
52.4
47.6
78.6
52.4
59.5
57.1
59.5
73.8
57.1
57.1
57.1
28.6
76.2
61.9
85.7
71.4
76.2
81.0
76.2
81.0
78.6
61.9
57.1
54.8
11.9
78.6
76.2
92.9
26.2
38.1
28.6
33.3
71.4
7.1
71.4
57.1
19.0
61.9
95.2
85.7
76.2
23.8
19.0
35.7
33.3
42.9
26.2
52.4
71.4
57.1
45.2
50.0
42.9
38.1
81.0
33.3
33.3
71.4
54.8
38.1
47.6
47.6
57.1
47,6
52.4
57.1
52.4
66.7
71.4
38.1
76.2
85.7
21.4
88.1
42.9
35.7
r83.3
r69.0
P50.0
57.1
57.1
50.0
r69.0
r83.3
pSl.O
57.1
61.9
57.1
57.1
r69.0
r45.2
P59.5
57.1
66.7
76.2
r69.0
P61.9
.• •
44
56.7
33^3
*4Q
•• •
23^3
*40
66*. 7
*48
46
36
40
44
4;>
44
39
34
34
34
28
30
1961
February
March
April
May
June
July,
August
October
ppp.embeTt t T , , 11
1962
March
April
Kfcy
julv
August
October
November
46.7
*54
53 .*3
*58
70.*0
'64
*52
5^7
66.7
*54
26.'?
*52
8o!o
*48
60.0
(NA)
a?
31
37
46
50
48
42
51
50
47
50
44
4*
49
50
52
52
48
40
46
45
42
44
43
1963
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
»
October
November
(NA)
46
46
45
46
50
46
42
Analytical Measures
37
Table 4.-DI.F.FU5ION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals; 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d
month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter;
1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
Seasonally adjusted components are used except in
indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index.
Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued
Year and
month
D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices,
rafg., FNCB
500 common stocks
(around 700
(80 industries)1
corporations)
1 -quarter
interval
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22nd
(47 areas)
1-month
interval
5-month .
interval
1960
52
March
April
May
*40
JUly
*45
September
*47
December,
1961
•• .
47
March
April
*60
Jpfety
July
*58
August
September
*56
November
28.5
11.2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75.9
32.9
76.5
15.3
23.5
89.4
80.7
27.1
11.8
27.6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8
69.2
42.3
46.2
53,8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8
34.0
54.8
10.6
47.9
38.3
37.2
55.3
17.0
68.1
42.6
36.2
53.2
59.6
63.8
14.9
11.7
17.0
14.9
26.6
23.4
20.2
21.3
57.4
31.9
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1
96.3
96.3'
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55.5
62,2
72.6
52.4
38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53,8
38.5
30.8
65.4
46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
46.2
57.7
59.6
31.9
80.9
40.4
48.9
58.5
51.1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
23.4
57.4
59.6
61.7
66.0
68.1
66.0
61.7
93.6
93.6
63.1
63.8
91.5
26.2
74-4
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34.8
6.7
98.8
84.8
39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1
31.1
72.6
90.2
98.8
73.1
34.6
46.2
38.5
53.8
23.1
30.8
42.3
50.0
57.7
69.2
37.5
61.5
53.8
42.3
50.0
42.3
42.3
23.1
23.1
42.3
65.4
79.2
62.5
57.4
83.0
46.8
46.8
40.4
14.9
68.1
57.4
44.7
46.8
72.3
27.7
74.5
51.1
66.0
31.9
21.3
34.0
31.9
38.3
78.7
' 48.9
22.3
63.8
97.6
79.3
43.8
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
97.6
93.8
91.2
90.0
88.0
62.5 '
58.3
66.7
46.2
r50.0
r46.2
r65.4
34.6
2
46.2
50.0
58.3
50.0
53.8
34.6
38.5
2
38.5
36.2
87.2
47.9
44.7
48.9
71.3
46.8
63.8
44.7
53.2
83.0
46.8
1962
54
February
April
May
June
'47
July
'48
August. ........
*56
1963
50
fferch
April
Mav
July
*59
October
x
The diffusion index is based on 86 components through January 1960; on 85 components, February 1960 to November 1960;
on 82 components, December 1960 to February 1963; and on 80 components thereafter. 19 components and 5 composites, representing an additional 22 components, are shown in the direction-of-qhange table (table 6C).
2
Average for August 13th, 14th, and 15th, 1963.
Analytical Measures
38
Toblo '.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY I960 TO PRESENT-Omttowd
Numbers are centered withtn Intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d
month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter;
1-quarter figures are placed In the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except In
indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index.
Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p". preliminary; and
»NA", not available.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes
D41. Number of employees
in nonagricultural establishments (30 industries)
Year and
month
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
1-month
interval
5-month
interval
D58, Index of
wholesale
prices (23
mfg. indue.)
1-month
interval
1960
Iterch
April
jtev
June
July.
September
»
December
75.0
43.8
41.7
68.8
66.7
66,7
41.7
20.8
20.8
16.7
12.5
20.8
68.8
50.0
45.8
79.2
14.6
60.4
50.0
41.7
50.0
62.5
37.5
31.2
58.3
77.1
58.3
45.8
62.5
64.6
16.7
43.8
41.7
41.7
45.8
29.2
60.3
45.6
56.8
46.7
40.4
45.4
39.6
32.5
32.0
36*9
32.5
46,7
45.8
<52.1
66.7
83.3
77.1
91.7
79.2
83.3
45.8
72.9
83.3
56.3
37.5
62.5
81.3
83.3
87.5
83.3
100.0
79.2
79.2
75.0
87.5
41.7
58.3
43.8
79.2
27.1
43.8
79.2
41.7
63.8
33.3
79.2
66.7
45.8
62.5
41.7
45.8
60.4
50.0
54.2
58.3
87.5
81.3
89.6
77.1
89.6
38.6
41.3
54.6
59.7
49.1
51.9
50.4
52.1
55,9
39.0
39,0
51.1
60.0
75.0
91.7
88.3
80.0
68.3
55.0
25.0
25.0
16.7
26.7
28.3
29.2
33.3
83.3
75.0
83.3
62.5
54.2
58.3
79.2
29.2
54.2
50.0
66.7
91.7
83.3
70.8
79.2
68.8
79.2
41.7
62.5
45.8
58.3
62.5
60.4
62.5
60.4
39.6
20.8
83.3
56.2
50.0
29.2
85.4
52.1
79.2
85.4
70.8
50.0
72,9
66.7
58.3
41.7
97.9
66.7
62.5
62.5
66.8
43.5
61.1
46.7
6S.6
4^.6
33.0
30.3
3S.5
39.0
43.4
35.9
43.3
56.7
90.0
r91.7
r86.7
p83.3
66.7
68.8
72.9
62.5
r87.5
r72.9
P72.9
54.2
81.3
83.3
r91.7
r83.3
p8l.3
50.0
54.2
58.3
39.6
r50.0
r47.9
p64.6
87.5
41.7
r37.5
r62.5
P5B.3
38.6
39.1
50.3
42.3
73.0
65.0
P50.4
56.7
83.3
53.3
55.0
50.0
30.0
35,0
30.0
21,7
30.0
20.0
11.7
80.0
81.7
66.7
58.3
40.0
38.3
25.0
25,0
30.0
23.3
15.0
16.7
TO. 8
20.8
58.3
39.6
75.0
54,2
39.6
45.8
25.0
33.3
27,1
20.8
33.3
33.3
75.0
66.7
85.0
86.7
58.3
53.3
36.7
65.0
70.0
53.3
11.7
41.7
60.0
83.3
90.0
83.3
83.3
46.7
50.0
63.3
68.3
53.3
33.3
81.7
81,7
90.0
70.0
63.3
48.3
40.0
30.0
48.3
28.3
41.7
30.0
63.3
85.0
75.0
r90.0
r70.0
p71.7
1961
March
April
May
June *
JUly
October
•
1962
March
April
May
June
July
* ...
November
a.7
1963
February
March
April
May
June
*.
July
Analytical Measures
39
Toblt 5.-DIFFUSJON INDEXES/ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within Intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and »NA", not available.
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Year and
month
Actual
Anticipated
D36» New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
Anticipated
D61. New plant and
quipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
Antici- Change in
. pated total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
75.0
84.4
...
71.9
...
71.9
...
56.2
71.9
34! 4
•* .
43^8
...
28.1
...
37.5
46.9
...
...
56.2
53!!
62.5
59.4
65.6
1960
•• •
May
July
Ausniet ***......
September . • t » » •
December .,.,,,,
61
*• •
...
53
•• •
•• •
50
*« •
•. •
60
•* •
•. *
82
*• •
•• •
74
•. •
*70
•• •
*68
*• •
*58
.• •
•• •
51
•* •
•. •
50
•. *
•• •
62
76
*• •
•• •
68
...
3l!6
3li6
*• •
...
68,4
•. *
...
78.9
** •
*68
•• •
•* •
68
•• •
2i!i
5o!6
.• *
72
•• •
•• •
78
'•73
•* •
•• *
82
*• .
...
78
*78
..*
•• •
...
26.3
•• •
42.1
36! 8
** .
89.5
68*.4
73.7
•. •
•* .
+96
•• •
-103
...
•. *
-279
...
•• •
-212
...
1961
February
jferch
April
*
(ifey
June «...••»*»••
JUly
August • •*.*• t •»
September
...
72
** *
•• •
74
•• •
•• •
82
*• •
•* .
82
• «•
•• •
83
• «*
...
88
••.
*81
*86
•• •
*86
*••
•* •
82
•**
*. •
87.5
89.5
63 !2
89! 5
-2B
+79
•. .
...
+125
..*
+62
*. .
...
1962
March...
April
*toy
July....
October
November
December « . • » t . .
1963
January. * . » * . t *
••.
80
•* .
•• •
76
*. .
•• •
72
74
March
April
May
July
Septeiribei**
*88
..•
*76
.* •
*84
*80
•• .
*74
*74
*74
•• *
•• *
82
...
»••
71
*76
"TO
•• •
•• •
76
*• .
"so
*76
*80
*76
57 '.9
(Nft)
94!?
...
le?
89.5
•• •
-96
68^4
lee
...
...
63.2
78.9
65.6
62.5
68^8
esie
65^6
65!6
46.9
•. *
68.8
40.6
50.0
(NO
75.0
•. •
+10
-38
78.1
Analytical Measures
40
dag-unj?
CO
Q.
O
unf-jiaw
r^
oo
+
4 - 4 - + 4- + + 4- + 4 . 0 +
I
| + 4, + 4.
(
( +
I
o +
I
I + + +
t
I
O I
in •*•
i o + + + •*• i o i i +
C-
4- 4- O
S +
i
I
6
fe
n
i
\O
O
Nt
CM
» + O O O
4- 4- O I
+ 4- 4-
+
-
1
1
1
I
I
I
4-4-
I
I O
+
4I
+
1
I
1 + 0 1
1
I
4-
I
+ •»•
I +
I OI t
I
I
+
14.
1 +
| 4- 4-
i 4- 4.
I 4-
I
I 4- O -t" + O I + I
I
1 0 + 0 1
1 0 1
+ 4-
I O O 1 I
I
1
O+ + I
I +
0 + I I I I
I + I I
I I
1 I I I I I I •*• I I
|
+
+ 1 |
|
+ I
I
1
I + I + I 1 I I OI I
I
I + O 0 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - + 4-4-
O I OO+ + i O + I
I
+ + I OI
r-t
?
I
+ + 4.
o
I I I Ot
I + I I
a I
2
Sny-ir-r
o
su. I
a.
S
>
o
y>
S
&
+ + 4 - 4 - 0 0 + + + 0 0
4. +
+
4-
+ + •*• + + 4.
I
"S
O 4 . 4 . + + 4. + 4 . 4 . 4 .
I
O + -». 4- t
I
I
I
I
I
+
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
+
+ + + + 4-4.4-4. + + +
I
6
*
S*
o
OSQ-AON
§
o
I + +
I O + O O I
I + 1 I
+ + 4-
|
I
I
I I 4-
9
T
<
I
+ O I
I
ffl
I + I
4- I
I
4-
I
4-
+ 4.
I
|
to
<u
^
h
s
-a
c 9
•CDH ^o3
•not
0)
&
r-j
<J
•*<
4
•
£5
g
g
• • • «
-p-b
. . . ^ . ^ . . . o l S
. . . o
P*H
CQ
• • • o « • o • • 5 o
K
•£r a ^
a
'
| I
a!
e^
•
•
*
*
•
•
•
-P
• in
m \y
'• ••» 'T5j *' . "^
( 0 ** » "S
p oM
p
s .? .? • fa - wr-
I
+ -f4- +
0
I
t 4.
I
14.
I
14.
+ •»•
I 4.
+ ^ )
+0
I I I I t I I I I
• a^
c
a <y a x
o +^ c o* ^ c
p3 oo - d*^« -f(l' eat at t jHaOJ« *j H3a_) T j B
at
5
Q
-POOCC
M c d O a )
4- 4-
I
t
I
t
4- 4- 4I
t
I
I
t O I
4- O
I
I
+ + O + + OO + + +
• to vj
bj
H
i
4-
1 4 - 1
on
•
I
I
I *
I + I 4- O I O O 4-
UL
O
4-
O
I I 4- +
| I I I t
+ 4- O I
I
| 4-
• f l - l - + 4- + ' f l + 0
+ + + O + + I
I I 4-
I
I
(
pq
M
pi
1 4 - 1
I
I
O O O O I
4-
I
I
I
|
I
I O I
I
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
B.-(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
5-month spans
1-month spans
1
I 8ia i
0
81 33 33 71 55 38
4
4
4 4
4
Aircraft. .. *
;
*
*.
4
-
r-t
Io
sf
0
e
ed &
o> df*
f i j 3i «i 8^ 11
1i
3
C
1 1 •?
r-l
1 -p > o
UO (
s8a&
til 4
1 1"
1
52 57 52 67 71 38 76 ?6 57 67 76 69 62
4
4-
4 4
4
4-
4
4- o
4 4- 0
4- 4 4-
4
4-
4
4
4
4
4
0
4-
+
-
- 4
-
4-
-
4
-
- -
4-
4-
4
-
4 44 4 4
4
4-
. 4
4 4-
-
+
4
-
-
4 4 44
4
4-
4-
-
-
-
4-
4-
4-
-
4 4 - -
+
4
- 4
-
+
4-
4
-
44
4 4
4 44
4- O
4 4
4 4
4- 4
4
4
44 44 4
4-
4-
4 4- 444
44- 4 4 4
44 4
4 444
4
44- 4-
4
4
Office machines*
Household appliances *....*..*•*
I
1
-
4
4 4
4
4
W)
1
C
1963
4
4
4 44 4
4
4-
.•
*
C
1
57 57 69 45 60
4 4 4 44
4
4
4
57 62
4
4
Electrical generator apparatus*. ...............
S
Aug-Sep
Sep-Oct
O
Mar-Apr
s I
Jan-Feb
Sep-Oct
Jun-Jul
O.
1
1962
1963
1962
21 industry components
4-
4-
-
-
4•
-
4
4 4 4-
-
4 + -
O
-
44-
4 = rising; o « unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24-.
1
Includes durable goods industries not available separately.
>
^f
s
rt
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
C.--(D19) index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
3-month spans
1-month spans
1963
1962
24 industry components
H
bO
Cb -H
>
O
C ^ )
FH
^
? » > C ^ l > o a - R
>
0
•3 5 * 8 i a & & $ % & £ £ 3 $ 8 £ £
i 1 tL> a J. i 0 | C X I i i ^ C tr H i ) ( L ^ >
3 3 3 a) b b ( I J < d f l > ol & jfi ^ ^ I J O O ^
•-3 »-s •< OQ o S o - 5 f e S < < S ^ ^ « 3 ; c o o 2
68 78 35 7 99 85 98 79 44 91 85 52 29
+—
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturing )
Textile weavers
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs
- ,,,,
J
+ +
DO
CU -P
>
0
3a«a ia
& S& »-a§ *-»3 <? &co
<;
1
C.Q
^
^ > s C < - l t i f l P . - P
>
0
3 & t . S < ! S ( - o » - > * 3 ! t O O 2 O
> -
> 0
C J=t
t-i S*
>> C rH
bfl
ft
O O ( l J a J < l ) J l l C i i J I l Z ) 3 0 < l >
O s : Q > - > E x , S < S : t r j t = 5 « x : c o
-H
8 67 31 73 90 99 98 94 91 90 88 62
+
::;:;; +
:::::: :::::::
+ * ..t +
+ NA NA NA NA Ni
.
+ +
. .-
-g.
n"
- - . - + +
- - + - . +
en
c
+ - + + + + -
Electronics
Radio and television broadcasters
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
rH
; : : : : + :+ NH N& NA m m
Coal, bituminous
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
1963
1962
+ + .+ + - -
::::::
.. + - + +
+
+
+
+ + +
-
-- + - + +
+1 • rising; o * unchanged; - » falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted. HA « Not available.
The 24 ccc^onents shown here include 19 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 22 of the industries used in computing2 the diffusion index.
Based on 82 industries, July 1962 to February 1963, and on 80 industries thereafter.
Analytical Measures
oaa-d^s
AON-Sny
10O—TT\f
^
d9S*"unf*
1
1
T8nv-AW
O
^1
1
fl
§
A
1 +
*n
+
i
1 0 1 +
jCBW-qaj
O I + + 1
1 0 1 +
jdv-u«r
J^
+ 1 +
a^W-oaa
t O I
+ + I I
q^-AON
u^p«i. on
0
1
+ + •*•!
O I + + +
t
O j +
+ + + +
Og + + +
1 1 1 1
oea-dag
AO(j™3n\f
3
rH
1
1
i
i
i
Og + +
0|
I
+ + +
I
O
I
+
1 0 1 +
i
l
l
ov+
+ + + +
o<$ + + +
1 1 + +
2 *
+
| +
0+11+
+i++
+
^.OQ^^nf
oi+
i + i i
0 1 1 1 0
+o + +
d9s~uT^r
( * > !
l l
l
0 1 1 1 +
I O I I
3T\V"-^BW
n
1 1 + 1
0 1 1 1 +
l o i i
XT\f —Jdv
C \ t l
I O I I
O + + + +
I O I I
+
*
i .
09Q"*AOM
< ^
^8nv-tr.f
S
i3
^
v»
"5
-o
*o
& -i
3 1
.+ + •
+ + I + -H
i . i i
V\
+
O + l t
+ 1 1 + 1
1 1 1 +
unf-£ew
^ g l
+ + I +
+ I I + +
I O + +
&
w
jC"SW"«idv
vO^+
0 + + I I
1 0 1 +
JC
Jdv-a«W
0 | + t l
0 0 1 +
f
rH
g
JW-q^
qai-UBf
H
z
09Q-AON
+I
+ +
IOI
|||+
o 1 + + +
^ 1
1 + + 1
Og + + +
+ 0 1 +
00
II + +
° g+
I
1
+
^oo-das
8
das-3nv
Srvv-W
rH
mr-unr
"8
1
?
>?
H
g
S
R
1
+
'
I
I
)
§
W
C O +
1 + 1 +
O + O I +
1.O+ +
C V +
+ o + l
0 1 1 1 1
+ 0 + 1
l l + l
O l t + +
l o l l
1
§
H
1
I
3*
H
«
sa
1
it
g
h at
.3
t)0
• *~*
"^ •
1
• H « H r H » O
(Q
h
N—',0 +»
fn
m
0<*~*
i-(T3 x ~ x
^» »
x-v*—»
H
"^
•
^^^ *-%^
^"&r^oT
^8^5
3
O**
2?
31
1
il materials compon
GE IN SERIES
|
+ +
AOM-^.OO
£
§
I
0+
v£>
||
uBf-oaa
O
^~^
i
H
«aJ
§
tTtf-unf
3
•H
0}
• unchanged; - » f a
ugust 13th, Uth, a
2
S
s
AON-+OQ
toO-das
dag-3nv
^
1 +
1
+ 1 1 +
MS 1£
1.
1
1
+ I + +
Ul
LU
^
O
1
+ 1 1 + 1
I
UL
O
t
§
+ 1 1 + +
<*>
£
V)
K
l
^ +
3
UJ
+
unr-J^w
>-
i5
l
1 + 1 +
H
§
IN
l
|
tnr-ady
w
p
1
0 0
n
&
K
of
o
CO
rH
"C?
•
S&S^
•
" <«
Q
y•° £„1
ts
•J
43
Toble 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
E.—(D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
5-month spans
1-month spans
£f-t XCi
(!)
1962
26 area components
H
II
3
•-3
1
it-i « 8i i+ji
Q
•~i3
i
a*
*
t0 ( 0 ) 0 1
*?
S
i
CLJC
^
^*
2*
CJ
C ^ 3
^
^
^
f^
£
^
O
O
> i C ^ H D P « - » -
^
^
^
68 57 45 47 72 28 36 87 48 45 49 71 47
+
QJ
OJ
~3^s<;s.|-3|-3<;coozo
i i i t i i i i i t) i
^
1963
1962
1963
4
4
-
4
4
-
-
4
4
4
4
4
-
-
4-
4
-
4
4
4
4
-
4
-
-
4 4 -
4
-
-
4 4 4
-
4
4
4
-
+
+
—
-
4 -
4 -
-
+
^
<
g
>
^
i
^-t
HO
(i
-P
5i 3t ^i 8i
,0
h
h
>s
fi £ § *
>
0
f
?
£
r-t
sg
C
,0
fn
f
n
,i
4 £ fi i
i3 i0) ^O ,E
<*! to O 2i S
Jan-Jun
-p
i-*
bo
5
i
5 £
i i
CX -P
>
O
S S 5
i i J,
£ * 3$ Z 3
21 34 32 38 79 49 22 64 64 45 53 83 47
4
-
-
NORTHEAST REGION
7
16
11
1
21
4
8
23
Buffalo*
Newark
New York
4
+
Philadelphia*
Pi ttsburph**
Providence**
.*
*.*
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
™
4
4
0
4
4-
. + .
4
4
4
NORTH CENTRAL REGION
3
18
10
26
5
25
22
15
13
9
Chicago* ,
Cincinnati
* s3 ,. .
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Detroit ...
Kansas City.
4
St. Louis
4
-
_ _ +
-
4
4
-
-
4-
4
4
4
-r
-
4
-
4
4
-
- 4 4+ 4 4 4 4 4 - +
+
-
+
+
_
+
+
4
-
4
-
-
+
+
_ 4
4
4
4
-
-
4
4-
4- +
- 44 -
4
O
444
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
44-
+
_
4 4
_ 4
4
4-
+
-
4
4
4
_
_
4
- -r
_ 4 _ 4- - + 4 - -
4
-
-
+
4
-
4
4-
_
-
4
+
4
4
4
44
4-
+
44
+
4
4
4
SOUTH REGION
20
12
17
A+1 oritn
Baltimore*
Dallas
• .
•*•• ..*....•*..**•
-
WEST REGION
2
24 Portland
6
19 Seattle
+
::; :
-
4
-
+
+
4
4
+
- + - - +
4
4
+ - + . - +
-
+
-
-
+
o -
-
+ + - 4 +
- + - -
4
4
-
4
4+
+
-
4
+
4-
4
—
-
—
_
4
4-
4
- = rising; o = unchanged; 4 = falling. Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined,
*Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in July 1963.
**Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in July 1963.
lf
The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.
go
en
Table 6.-DJRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
F.--(D4l) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
3 -month spans
1-month spans
'19(S3
19 52
30 industry components
Furniture and fixtures
Stone , clay , and glass products
Primary metal produots
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Tobacco manufactures
<
^
t=
ft
•P
>»
1 % 8 j
+
Ordnance and acces sor ies
S
td>
"-a
1
cs-
O
&
h
t*
>>
rH
a
7 *? ? ? f 7 gt
I I 11 I 1^
1
! I * -EI i
48 i•0 30 48 2 8 42 30 63 85 75 90 70 72
+ - 4- + - o
4-
All nonagri cult ural establishments
U
H
_
O
4-
—
-
4~
—
4-
+
-
"
"
4-
°
+
4-
o
*
4.
+
o
+
44>
bfl
ft
-P
>
O
5i »i 8i %i ai
g a«a i
rH
0
»-^
/,
—
O
—
-
4+
-
4-
—
+
4-
4-
4-
—
4*
4-
4*
4-
—
4-
4-
4-
4-
4*
—
O
4-
44-
44-
+
4-
44-
-
O
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
44-
+
4-
o
+
O
ft
-P
>
O
"3
Q)
f)
O
(U
44-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4_(_
44-
+
-
4-
- O
4-
-
-
-
-
4-
-
4-
-
-
_
_
_
4-
-
+
rt
o
— — — —
+
o
C
0)
Ha
X>
Q>
(x«
IU
Jl
g
fn
ft
<<
>>
Jt
S
P
3
^>
^ 5 a s s. a
S
O
^
<D
Q
(ti
*~3
<U
&-i
d
S
II I % I S
r-\
tlfl
ft
-P
Q
4 - 4 - 4 -
- --
+
4-
+
+
+
o
-
-
4-
4- +
O
—
-
O
+
4-
+
jf
jf.
o
o
Petroleum and coal products
Rubb e r produc t s *
-
O
—
o
+
4-
Mining
Contract construction * •
+
+
-
4-
-
4-
4-
-
4-
44-
—
-
—
-
—
-
4-
+
- O + + + +
4- 4- + 4* 4- 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - +
44- 4 - + 4 - 4 - 4 - 4O 4" 4- 4" 4" 4- 4_ _ o + + + 4>
4-
_
-
44-
_
-
-
o o + •*• +
4-
-
4-
+
_
0
Q
+
4+
••
• •*
-j.
4"
+
4-
_
+
4-
Retail trade
Finance , insurance , real estate
Service
+
O
—
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
+
+
4.
44.
4-
4-
4-
o
+
°
4-
4-
44-
—
—
+
Q
+
4-
4-
-)-
4*
44 +
+
4- 44 - 4 •*- +
4. +
4-
+
- 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
Q
4-
+
+
4-
4- 4- + +
+ 4-4*
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4-
o
+
+
4-
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4-
4-
—
4-
4-
+
- - -
+ + 4-
*
4- = rising; o = unchanged; -
s
falling.
rt
>-*.
n
S
O
fji
M
_
4-
'
+
—
4 +
^
O
|__,
*^
i—
_
-
-
'
4-
O
-
4-
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
t>
6« 55 25 25 17 27 28 43 57 90 92 87 83
+ + + + o
—
4-
bfl
< <o s 2 a
1
444-
19£>3
1962
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
CO
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
G.«(D47) Index of Industrial Production
1-month spans
3-month spans
1963
1962
3i f
!
i #
i 8
i -P
i 1
i
C
r-l
00
CL
>
1
O
1
C
1
£*
1
J-t
1
t-t
1
>»
1963
1962
24 industry components
1
C
1
r-H
54 58 79 29 54 42 67 69 73 62 88 73 73
1
W
!
I
(X •»-»
1
>
^ ^ as£a
i
>>
C
rH
tC
P.
I I I I I I I I 11 I I
79 69 79 42 62 46 58 54 81 83 92 83 81
+ + +
+
O
+
+
+
+
+ "^
DURABLE GOODS
+ - -
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
-
Machinery, except electrical
+ + + + - — o + + — +
+S
J.
^ T +
+ + -
+ + + + _ + '+
0
+
+
-
—
+
o
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
— +
+
4-
+
+ + + + +
- -
+
+
+
+
+
n
— +
+
+
+
+
+ +
_^a
_ +
Clay, glass t and stone
lAiinber and products
+
- + + - + -
Furniture and fixtures
+
-
+
+
+
4-
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+ Mi Mi
+
+
+
4
j.
+
+
+
+
NONDURABLE GOODS
Textile mill products
+
+
—
—
—
o
Leather and products
Paper and products
-
- 4
+ o
c
-
-
+ +
MINERALS
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
ffetal mining* ,
,...»
0
..*..
+
+
+
+
-
+ -+- + + + -
-
- - + + + + NA
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+ + -
-
-
- - - - - NA NA
+
- + + + + + NA
- + + + +
.. + +
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
-
+
_
+ - _
+ _ +
+
+
+
+
-
+ + - + NA NA
+ + + + NA
Rubber and plastics products
j-
-
-
+ + + - + + NA
— + — + + + +
+ +
Tobacco products
-
+
+
+ -
-
+
+ - +
+ +
-
-
+ - + + + + NA
+ - + - + - NA
4-4-
—•
-
+ -
+
^
+ + +
- +
+ + + + + + NA
- - + + + NA NA
*....*..
+ +
+ + + - + + NA
4* NA WA
- +
^ -
4- O
~
+
-
+
+ + +
_ - + + +
+ + + + +
+ + +
+ _
+ +
- +—
4- * rising; o « unchanged; - « falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
HA » Not available.
^The direction of change is shown for industry groupe where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industry
are used to coim>ute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
r*
^
**•
O
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1962 TO PRESENT-Continued
H.--(D54) Sales of Retail Stores
5 -month spans
1-month spans
1962
24 retail store components
rH
UD
2
<-3
1
;3
<
1
C
rH
ft
-P
>
0
<o o
CO O
1
1
o
5Z
1
0)
Q
1
ft
-P
>
M
S 3 3 SS i
,0
*H
IH
!»
C
O
^
^
^
§ I!
rH
bfl
ft
1
C
f
rH
"?
bO
^
T»
<<
•3
83 56 50 29 85 52 50 54 58 40 50 48 65
+ _ .f -j. 4. _
^_
All retail sales
Grocery stores. • •
Eating places
C
3 (S £ §• fi 3
i Ci ^Oi hi FHi >>i
O
• »
. . .
...
.'
.*
4*
4
4
—
—
+
+
—
4-
n
4*
+
O
+
4-
r\
Mail-order stores,
Var iet v s tores
Other general stores
Men1 s wear stores
Women1 s apparel stores «
.
+
.*
Furniture stores • « * * . * . . * . ... .. *..
Appliance and rad io stores
.
.
_
.
_
4*
—
—
+
O
«...
O
4-
—
—
—
4*
44-
>
0
f
-P
?
>
2 fl> o
o
CO O S
rH
^j
*-»
,0
4-
—
4~
—
+
+
—
4*
bD ft
^i
<y
<*! CO
^ h
-
4-
-
O
-
4-
4-
4-(-
*
+
0
+
t ^ C r - l b p p . 4 ^
>
0
62 62 88 42 38 62 58
^.
-+
°
^.
4.
4-
—
4-|-
-\
+
+
~|-
4 - 4 - 4 -
+
^_
—
4-
4.
4.
—
FH
67
4
4-4-
I*
a a « ' s a « iS * a- * s s
_j.
4-
£>
t-H
4*
+
C
3 £ : £ 3 g 3 £ l $ 8 : i g
-j.
4 - 4 - 4 -
4- - 44 - 4 - 4 -
+
>
5 &
73 67 58 /^2 98
4-
+
4-
-t=
i
C
p
fi £ S1 1\ I
—
4-
i
+
f
t
4-
4
-
+
4-
^
+
44
+
4-
- 4- 44~ 44 - 4 - 4 O
i
4-
4-
i
i
i
i
i
i
r
H
4- 4*
4
*
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
4-
_
- - 4- 4_ 4 - 4 - 4 4* 4- 4- 4~
j- 4- 4- 44-
4 - 4 - 4 -
—
4-
i
4-
4- —
4-4-
n
4*
4-
—
—
—
-
4— —
4-4-
~
4
—
Hardware stores
Farm eouipment dealers
Other nondurable soods storss
^
ft
_j_
44-
Motor vehicle dealers
Tire and battery dealers
Gasoline stations
Dru£ and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores
liiouor stores •
.
n
-P
*
+
1963
1962
19<S3
*
+
+ 4 -
+
O
—
—
4-
4-
+
_
+
-
+
_
—
4>
—
—
4 - 4 - 4 4—
—
4-
4
O
4-
4-
—
—
+
—
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
4-
—
.
-j-+.
~
—
4-
4.
+
4-
+
—
4.
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
+
—
+ +
— 4-
44-
+
.
4-
4"
jf.
+
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
—
+
_
L
I
.
—
j.
O
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
.
.
+ - rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined*
r^
^
O
g
a
Cyclical Patterns
48
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
CHART 4
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Index
Nov. 1948 * Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
> July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
> May 1960 * present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
I I I II
r
Reference trough dates
I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I | I 1| I I M I j
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and Indus.
bldgs.2
- Reference trough dates
105
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.
100*
MOO
29* New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg. I
permits
95L
150
140
130
24. Mfrs/ new orders,
roach, and equip* Indus*
H 120
120
110
H no
100*
.j 90
1 I i 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i n i 11 i 1 1 1 1 1 i M 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
-12
0
+6
t!2
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
* Reference peak level* For series with a 'months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or *2", the figure for the reference peak Is
set at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100"
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at *100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C,
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown
In table 7*
2
For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles a 3-term moving average is shown.
49
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
•^^•^^^MNMHMMNMMM^MMWMMOMMMMMIMMMMMl^B^M^^^^^^B^^l^^^^^^B^^MMHMWHMMMMHHMMiMMHHBHMMNHMMMMMM^^^H
Percent of reference peak levels measured, from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Index
• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
* July 1953 * Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 • Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
- May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
' M I I M I I| I M I I I I 1 f I 1 I I
II I II|
-*- Reference trough dates
13* New business tncorpo-
^
17. Price per unit of
labor cost
23. Industrial materials
prices
19. Stock prices, 500 ...»
common stocks
.'
80 »0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
0 + 6
+12 + 1 8
Months from reference troughs
^Reference peak level. For series with a "month* for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of M" or " 2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at *100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
50
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
CHART 4
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle,
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 * Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
> July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
- May 1960 • present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
43. Unemployment rate, total
i i i i 11
Index
[inverted]
Reference trough dotes
105 r
* Employees fn nonagrl
establishments
55. wholesale prices, except
farm prod, and foods
I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
! I I I J I I M M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I It M I
-6
0 + 6 + 1 2
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
•30
-6
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
0
+24
*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of *1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak Is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCI) numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
51
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
••••••••MHMMMMMMMMMMHMMMHMNWMMBMMMMMMMMMMMMMVMWMHHMMHM^^^^
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak dote preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
I M I I | I M M | I I I U I | I IM
• Nov. 1948 • Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 * Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May 1960 * present1 (Reference trough: Feb* 1961)
Index
Reference trough dates
Index
120
51. Bank debits outside NYC
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
+30
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or "2", the figure for the reference peak U
set at * 100". For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For* quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are'
shown in table 7.
52
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
rnri 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 in M 1 1 M 11 r n T I n r 1 1 1 IT i
PERIOD COVERED
• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 * Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May 1960 * present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
—<- Reference trough dates
62. Wage and salary cost
p*»r unit of output, all mfg.
Index
120r
100*
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
67. Bank rates, short-term
business loans
100*
64. Mfrs.1 inventories,
all mfg. industries
901-
-12
•6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
>24
-12
-6
0 + 6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1* or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at * 100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes; for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
o
Last two quarters anticipated.
53
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion.
Index
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dotes to 42 months later.2 Specific
trough dotes are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
—
1949
1954
1958
1961
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 m 1 1 1 f1 1
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and Indus,
bldgs.
•<~Specific trough dates
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg
*100
24. Mfrs,' new orders,
mach. and equip, indus.
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, loco* bldg.
permits
I
- 110
100*
*100
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+36
+42
Months from specific troughs
'Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100*. For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
ot "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C,
!
2
$ee appendix B for specific dates.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 1. For the 1949 and 1958
cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown*
54
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
CHART 5
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for eoch expansion.
TT T i l l I ITTI [ T FI I I I I M l I j i i I i I I M I I I I I I I I ) ]
PERIOD COVERED
2
From specific trough dates to 42 months later. Specific
trough dates ore the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of— 1949
1954
lnd«x
«<-Specific trough dotes
1958
1961
TNTM
Index
17* Price per unit of
lobor cost
-Specific trough dotes
160 13. New business incorporations
200
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
180
160
140
120
*100
i ill m ill M iiliii iilnml in nli mil
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
*Specific trough level. For series with o "months for cyciicol dominance" (MCD) of T or T,the figure for the specific trough is set ot "100". For series witfi
an MCD of "3" or more, the overage of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100*. For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter ts set
at "TOO1*. MCD values are shown in appendix C
2
'See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
Cyclical Patterns
55
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion,
PERIOD COVERED
I
'"'"I
I1
'
"
'"I
I
lnde
«
From specific trough dates to 42 months later.2 Specific
trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954
1958
1961
-|115
M l l t l l l ] | I I 1 1 | III 1 1 I I I I I 1 1 I I 1 1 I I I I
Index
300 r
41. Employees in nonagr
establishments
•-Specific trough dates
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted ]
-110
v
vxw. • -•' \
120 -
MOO
120r
115
/VV
54. Sales of retail stores
'\
110
105
*100
100
0
+6
+11
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with
an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100*. For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C
2
*See appendix B for specific dotes.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
56
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
CHART 5
Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compered for 4 business expansions. Period begins
with the specific'trough date1 of each series for each expansion,
I M I I | M I I I I I I M I I l II 1 i I I M I l| 1 T 1 1 I II I T T I T
PERIOD COVERED
1949
1954
130
1961
I 1 1 1 I I I 1 1 1 I I I 11 I ( I t 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 i ( I [ 1 1 1 1 1 11
Index
-(-Specific trough dates
140r
130
1958
—
Index
140
-^-Specific trough dates
From specific trough dates to 42 months later.2 Specific
trough dotes are the dates each series actually begins the
expansion identified with the reference trough of-
120
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
49 GNP in current dollars
no
120
100*
no
-,170
160
100
150
53. Labor income in minfna,
mfg,, and construction
150
140
130
140
52. Personal income
130
120
120
110
no
*100
100*
mill mi ilii inln M iltimli i nil
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
+36
+42
^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100*. For series with
an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter Is set
at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C*
l
2
See appendix B for specific dates.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific
3
troughs of previous expansions ore shown in table 9,
For the current cycle, changes ore based on the low (L) shown in table 1.
Cyclical Patterns
57
Table /.-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 5<>, 55, 62,
64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more
(series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month
is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter.
See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
Months
after
beginning in—
reference July July Nov. Mar.
June Oct. Aug.
Apr. Feb.
1924
1927 1933
1938
trough1 1921
1949
1954
1958
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
2. Accession rate manufacturing. •••
.*
3 * Layoff rate, manufacturing ( inverted )
,
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
14.
16.
17.
19.
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
Price per unit of labor cost index
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks..,.
29
28
28
NA
39.4
10.9
95.6
35.5
35.0
93.6
46.4
50.8
74.8
47.6
48.1
97.2
120.0
101.7
102.0
113.3
122.2
29
29
193.7
177.8
101.7
120.4
61.6
47.5
51.0
36.9
186.1
190.7
160.7
132.8
127.4
92.7
111.3
97.8
119.4
120.3
28
37.6
106.2
82.0
20,5 157.2
89.3
130.7
108.9
136.9
28
29
24
29
29
29
78.2
97.8
78.8
98.7
68.9
98,4 135.3
67.0
19.0 119.6
68.8 297.8 82.4 109.6
76.0 101.9 105.7
20.6 115.1
91.6 114.3
NA 99.4 101.4
NA
NA.
NA.
NA
67.6 155.7 187.0
96.8 155.6 195.5 37.8
97.6 113.6
83.2 173.4
81.6
60.9
95.4
129.5
56.6
100.0
99.8
113.0
97.5
101.0
63.6
112.4
101.9
125.1
90.5
113.4
120.4
NA 100.5
123.7
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
99.3 98.7 101.2
84.2 103.6
97.4
93.3 70.4 135.3
NA
NA
NA
NA 163.4
NA
NA
,NA
106.1
116.1
115.8
117.6
111.3
107.8
95.1
NA
100.0
107.4
110.2
108.4
105.5
97.3
83.9
NA
77.0
66.2
81.6
56.7
70.1
75.7
105.4
96.4
112.3
108.9
NA
107.1
108.6
112.3
107.5
124.8
121.2
128.2
117.6
128.3
124.7
114.4
104.7
62.3
108.5
116.6
108.7
128.7
118.2
114.9
64.6
91.0
88.7
85.0
95.9
108.1
108.4 101.5
24
30
60.2
54.9
103.4
100.9
37.2 92.4
44.0 131.5
119.3
119.4
127.7
131.3
29
28
28
82.2
NA
NA
93.0
NA
NA
85.0
74.5
74.0
98.1
105.9
133.3
110.0
138.2
176.3
106.4
114.9
143.1
102.0
101.7
127.2
98.2
106.9
123.3
27
90.9
92.8
60.6
95.5
130.7
117.4
102.9
93.6
29
NA
NA
29
NA.
NA
29
29
29
27
27
29
29
29
87.4
NA
102.3
NA
NA
91.7
NA
109.7
29
29. Index of new private housing units author-
146.1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars(Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
52 . Personal income
54 . Sales of retail stores
*****
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
95.7
NA
102.3 103.9
74.5 92.3
105.5 115.1
112.3 115.0
107.1 110.7
119.6 131.2
113.8 115.4
106.8 111.5
99.8
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
119.1
87.0
96.2 101.8
94-0 110.1
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
90.9
NA
NA
111.9
NA
Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 24 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 30 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 3d quarter 1963),
Cyclical Patterns
58
Toble 8.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER TH£ REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with
64, and 66).
(series 2, **,
month is used
quarter. See
a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62,
the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "1" or more
6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough
as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough
also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
J^rcent change from reference trough of expansion
Months
beginning in—
after
reference July July Nov. Mar. June Oct. Aug. Apr*
1938 1949 1954 1958
trough1 1921 1924 1927 1933
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
29
28
28
+4.6 -4.6 +0.8 +11.5
+2.1 +3.3
+5.2
+2.8
+1.8
-9.8
NA +65.6 -36.6 +17.0 +33.3 +27.6 +16.0 +11.8
NA +13.0 -28.3 +51.9 +105.0 +82.2 +44-4 +16.0 +5B.8
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7, New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9, Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2..*
14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
16, Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
29
29
+174.4 -9.2 -38.4 +165.5 +209.5
+81.7 +29.8 -54.4 +1U.3 +103.0
28
+38. C +53.0
28
29
24
29
29
29
-9.2
+8.2 +32.1 -4.9 -13.1
+12. B +32.7 -25.3 +260.8 +11.9
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
-5.5 +71.5 +218.4
m
+89.3 +43.6
NA
NA
N&
+30.9 +49.4 +49.2
+45.4 -2.7 -14.6
+73. a
-7.8
+37.1 +30.0 +39.7
+2.0 +20.7
-22.4
+3.5 +34.9 +38.6 +46.9
-5.9
-6.6
NA +281.2 +17.1
NA +0.7
NA
+82.5 +7.5 +49.8
+73.3 +42.4 +29.9
+14. 6
-29.7
+34.1
+3.2
+47.8
+13.6
+35.6 +8.6
-24.8 -34-9
+32.2 +32.3
+5.5 +3.8
+29.5 +11.1
+12.2
-5.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA +85.8 +53.1
29
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-28,1
29
29
29
27
27
29
29
29
+26.7
M
+50.0
+24.0
+24.1
+18.3
+31.7
+H.6
+10.3
NA
+30.0
+18.8
+16.1
+21.4
+11.8
+9.9
-0.9
NA
+8.2
+7.0
+7.7
-0.3
+3.1
-2.7
+22.6
+42.7
+62.1
+31.3
+13.3
+48.6
+42.6
+33.9
+17.6
+71.7
+65.9
+23.7
NA
+28.2
+21.9
+35.7
+13.2
+154.7
+32.4
+32.7
+19.3
+33.6
+30.4
+14.8
+8.4
+41.0
+19.3
+18.8
+12.0
+26.7
+18.5
+15.8
+6.7
+32.1
+22.8
+15.2
+11.4
+23.5
+14.2
+10,5
+6.0
+25.3
+22.3
+15.8
+12.8
+28.2
+H.6
+15.8
'29
+2.6
-0.4
+1.3 +13.8
+9.2
+2.0
-0.1
+75.3 +48.2 +35.6 +117.1 +54.8 +49.1 +33.6 +19.7
+59.9 +44.6 -1.0 +156.4 +120.3 +49.2 +37.4 +17.1
+;t8.o
29
+35.3 +25-3
29. Index of new private housing units author-
-1.2 +27.5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
52 . Personal income
55, Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
-4.6 +16.8
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
b
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
total manufacturing
«
66 . Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q).
24
30
29
28
28
-8.6
NA
27
-15.7
NA
+9.2
-9.6
NA
-7.7 +15.9 -5.5 +14.3 +4.2 -4.0 -3.5
NA +25.8 +11.8 +51.0 +21,9 +6.8 +9.7
NA +54.9 +42.9 +42.1 +38.4 +26.2 +19.3
NA
-2.2 +30.2 +23.0 +19.2 +0.8
+5.8 +16.3 -22.2
NA Not available.
^•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 24 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 30 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 3d quarter 1963),
Cyclical Patterns
59
Table 9.-PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19( 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, and 53).
the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 9,
13, 24, 29, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
tenths
after July
specific 1921
trough1
31
19, Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
2^. Index of industrial materials prices.. t .. ...
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, raachin-
25
29
29
33
31
KA
95.0
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
73.6
93.4
NSC
98.1
99.8
95.9
3
NSC 96.1 140.1
17.3 141.2 43.7
NSC 127.1 94.1
60.8 53-1 58.9
NA
NA 97.3 89.0 97.4 99.1
NA 141.6 176.7 112.4 115.6
26.9
NA 100.9 62.9 86.4 89.0
67.1
NA
NA
NA U9.4
31
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
65.3
95.7
29
26
30
27
27
31
29
30
87.4
95.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
102.0
NSC
NSC
108.8
NA
NSC
91.4
NA
96.2
NSC
NSC
111.5
NA
NSC
83.9
NA
73.8
66.2
79.6
71.3
61.5
75.7
104.9
82.2
112.3
103.7
NA
110.2
110.2
111.6
107.4
114.8
118.3
125.5
116.5
124.9
129.6
NSC
104.7
60.9
108.2
114-2
107.2
117.1
114.3
111.9
102.2
69.1
104.4
112.4
107.6
113.5
106.5
106,8
103.7
88.4
113.2
115.0
110.7
3
1H.6
112.0
112.0
NA • NA
104.5 106.1
97.5
98.7 119.7
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
25
29
29
33
31
24. Value of manufacturers ' new orders, machin33
29, Index of new private housing units author31
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41, Number of employees in nonagricultural
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
Oct.
1949
NA
31
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
June
1938
NA
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1, Average workweek of production workers,
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,...
Mar.
1933
33
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
84.3
42.9 106.6 95.4
78.1 96.2 109.8
NA
NA
NA
NSC
89.1 133.8
60.6
74.7 47.3
29. Index of new private housing units author-
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q),.
52 • Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe,.
Nov.
1927
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs,, floor space2,..
13 • Number of new business incorporations. ......
July
1924
29
26
30
27
27
31
29
30
+10.1
+4.8 -11.9
-1.4 +11.7
+4.7
+2.3
+1.8
NSC
+5.5
3
+107.6 +69.9 +23.6 +78.6 +210.9 +40.4
+40.5 +50.6
NSC +39.6 +10.1
+11.8 +28.7 +19.7 -2.6 -33.5 -0.5
MA
NA
NA
NA +4.6 +5.2 +5.5 +3.8
NA
NSC +76.3
NA +70.4 +98.8 +35.9 +28.6
+31.3 +57.2
NA +49.7 +20.6 +9.2
+48.8 +1.3 -33.8 +80.4
-2.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA +98.5 +63.4 +33.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+26.7 +10.3
-3.5 +22.6 +17.6
NA
NA +44.4 +49.8
NA
+53.3 +30.0 +4.1 +60.7 +69.8
NSC +31.3 +23.7
NSC
NA
NA
NSC
NSC +18.2
NA
+32.0 +12.9 +14.4 +44-9 +26.1
NA
NA
NA +73.0 +50.7
NSC
NSC +33.9 +35.8
+15.9
+13.2
KL44.8
+31.3
+30.2
+19.3
+31.6
+48.2
NSC
+8.4
+43.3
+20.2
+17.3
+11.3
+18.6
+23.8
+15.7
+28.5
+5.7 +28.4
+6.7
+33.2
+21.9
+16.4
+12.5
+H-9
+15.7
+11.6
+6.0
+26.7
+22,5
+15.8
+12.8
3
+15.2
+18.0
+16.3
NA
Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
1
Based on period from most recent specific trough of each series to the latest month for which data are available.
The2 number is the same for each expansion. Specific trough and peak dates are shown In appendix B.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 1 and the high
preceding that low.
Appendixes
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)
Business cycle
reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854,
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October I860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882
XXX
30
22
46
Iff
34
36
XXX
18
8
32
18
65
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894.
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893-..
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910...
January 1913...
August 1918....
January 1920...
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926...
August 1929....
May 1937
February
November 1948.
July 1953
14
13
43
13
jj
11
27
21
50
10
37
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May I960
35
25
58
44
34
48
34
:
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961.
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961...
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
1 I Q
2
5A
3
46
5
48
41
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
1
4
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
2
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
6
3 cycles, 1948-1960
2 cycles, 1948-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.
61
Appendixes
62
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates are
those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected leading
and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough cates for reference expansions beginning In—
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
Dec. '60
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and Industrial bldgs... NSC
13-. Number of new business incorporat ions
Jan. '61
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. Feb.1 61
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Oct. '60
23. Index of industrial
mat. prices....Dec. '60
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Oct. '60
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Dec. '60
Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 Jul.'32 Apr. '28 Jul,'24 Feb. '21
Jun.'58 NSC
Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul.'24 Mar. '21
Feb. '49
May '49
Jun.'49
Jun. '49
Sep. '39
NA
Apr. '38
Jun. '38
Dec. '34
NA
Jun. '32
Jul.'32
Dec, '26
NA
NSC
Aug. '28
Jun. '24
NA
Oct. '23
Jun. '24
Jan. '21
NA
Aug. '21
Jul."21
Feb. '58 Jan. ' 54 Apr. '49 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Feb. '58 NA
Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dec. '57
Apr. '58
NSC
Dec. '53
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
2ndQ'49
2nd Q1 49
Oct. '49
Jun. '38
Jun. '38
May '38
2ndQ'38
IstQ' 38
May '38
Mar. '33
May '33
Jul.'32
IstQ11 33'
3rd Q 32
Mar. '33
Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
NSU
4thQ'26
Jul.'24
NA
Jul.'24
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 24
Jul.'21
NA
Apr. '21
4thQ' 21
NA
2ndQ'21
NA
NSC
NA
mr.'22
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Index of industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
54, Sales of retail stores
Feb. '61
May '61
Jan. '61
IstQ' 61
IstQ' 61
NSC
Apr. '58
Jul.'58
Apr. '58
IstQ' 58
IstQ' 58
Feb. '58
Aug. ' 54
Sep. '54
Apr. '54
2ndQ' 54
2nd Q' 54
Mar. '54
Feb. '61 Apr. '58 Aug.J 54 Oct. '49 Jun. '38 Mar. '33 NA
May '38 Mar. '33 NSC
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Jan. '54 NSC
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in—
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
May '59
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
13. Number of new business incorpoApr. "59
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. my '59
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59
23. Index of industrial
mat. prices.... Nov. '59
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Dec. '59
29, Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov. '58
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural establishments
Apr. '60
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb. '60
47. Index of industrial production
Jan. ' 60
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
2nd Q' 60
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
2ndQ' 60
NSC
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
May '60
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr. '60
NA not available.
Nov. '55 Apr. '53 NSC
tor. '56 NSC
Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22 NA
Mar. '46 Jul.'37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dee. '19
Jan. '29
NA
Sep. '29
Mar. '29
Oct. '25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25
Apr.(23
NA
Mar. '23
Mar. '23
Dec. '19
NA
Jul.'19
Apr. '20
Nov. '56 Feb. '51 Apr. '48 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Feb. '55 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Mar. '57
Mar. '57
Feb. '57
3rdQ'57
3rdQ'57
Aug. '57
Jul.'48
Jan. '48
Jul.'48
4thQ' 48
4thQ'48
Oct. '48
Jul.'37
Jul.'37
my '37
3rd Q' 37
3rdQ'37
Jun. '37
Aug. '29
NA
Jul.'29
3rd Q'1 29
3rd Q 29
Aug. '29
Jan. '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 26
Jul,'23
NA
May '23
NSC
NSC
lHtQ'24
Jan, '20
NA
Feb. '20
NA
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NA
Jul.'20
Feb. '56
Dec, '55
Jul.'56
Dec. '55
Jul.'46
NSC
Feb. '51 Jan. '48
Jan. '53 Jun. '48
Feb , ' 51Jan. '48
Wiy '53
Jun.'53
Jul.'53
2ndQ'53
2ndQ' 53
.Oct. '53
Dec. '36
NA
Feb. '37
Mar. '37
Jul.'57 ;;ui.'53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29 NA
Jul.'57 Jul.'53 NSC
Sep. '37 Sep. '29 NSC
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
Appendixes
63
Appendix C.--AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
1/5
Monthly series
CI
I
C
1/5
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
2
.24
2.08
1.35
5.45
1.67
2.55
2.33
1.92
3
3
3
.95
.92
.55
.76
2.57
2.53
1.86
2.49
1.84
1.82
1.49
1.80
9-82
8.35
8.67
7.59
4.26
4.58
4-53
5.16
4.88
3.67
5
.81
1.66
1.49
7.10
3.37
3.16
1.94
2
.97
1.86
1.53
9.28
3.61
2.00
2.50
3
.75
1.94
1.48
10.64
3.34
2.19
2.53
3
.73
1.68
1.47
12.82
3.56
11.94
5.94.
3.39
2.75
2.19
2.01
4.34
2.71
1.69
5
3
3
.80
.79
.67
1.62
1.59
2.29
1.49
1.37
1.67
8.28
8.56
11.46
3.45
3.55
4.46
3.44
2.57
1.67
1.30
2.06
1.98
3
3
.60
.65
1.93
2.19
1.53
1.69
12.43
9.31
3.70
3.50
.40
.47
6.03
5.31
30. N onagri cultural placements, all industries.... 3.41
3.H
3 . Layoff rate, manufacturing
11.94 10.46
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
19.43 17.91
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemploy6.12
6.98
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
5.00
5.58
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery
6.07
5.55
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
12.37
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment.. 6.37
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started.... 4.09
29. Index of new private housing units authorized
3.90
3.04
14 Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with, liabilities
of $100,000 and over
16.32
16.05
2.81
5.71
6
(M
1.57
1.42
5.32
2.22
17.30
.73
2.58
17.36
.58
1.90
3.26
.41
1.49
5.33
1.41
1.28
6
2
2
(M
.83
.79
1.54
2.59
2.40
6.21
1.39
1.77
9.94
1.73 13.55
2.82
3.79
3.36
7.34
5.67
3.67
1.54
2
.94
2.91
1.79
9.79
4.02
6.17
5.53
2.76
2.00
3
.66
1.90
1.61
11.55
4.63
11.30
2.15
8.12
1.39
7.20
1.52
1.13
.91
2
1
.77
.91
3.18
2.61
2.01
1.84
9.94
11.46
3.59
2.61
.39
.22
.29
.76
1
.76
3.41
2.04
10.44
3.41
1.94
2.44
2.05
1.62
1.68
1.38
15-73
7.67
10.50
3.44
3.48
4.37
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
26. Buying policy — production materials, percent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force
• 41
4.73
5.80
.32
3.46
4.62
.22
2.91
3.26
1.45'
1,19
1.42
2
2
2
.72
.64
.67
5.63
2.80
4.12
.68
1
.68
3.47
2.44
8.28
3-47
3.28
2.10
2.26
.93
1
.93
2.30
1.40
8.13
2.30
1.16
1.56
.69
.66
1.42
.43
.81
.70
.54
.81
2.03
.80
1
3
1
.81
.58
.80
4.25
1.82
3.39
1.3? 11.00
1.55 10.64
1.69 21.29
4.25
4.32
3.39
1.12
1.58
.69
1.43
.84
.56
.82
2.55
.82
.70
3.63
1.84
1.80
1.67
13.55
8.77
3.63
3.56
.30
.11
.27
.41
1
4
1
.41
5.22
2.53
12.85
5.22
.67
.48
.41
1.17
2
.69
2.52
1.67
9.94
4.14
.88
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods, all manufacturing industries.
.99
66. Consumer installment debt
. 1.19
.27
.40
.34
1
.34
7.84
2.16
13.55
7.84
.49
.28
.84
1.12
.58
.25
1
1
.58
.25
6.48
8.79
2.61
2.29
13.55
18.56
6.48
8.79
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
51 Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all
See footnotes at end of table.
Appendixes
64
Appendix C.« AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Monthly series
I/C
Average duration of run
for
MCD
C
MCD
I
CI
span
01
I
C
I/C
,28
7.17
7.49
.17
6.91
7.23
.23
1.31
1.46
.74
5.27
4.95
1
5
5
.74
.92
.96
4.48
1.47
1.70
2.18 19.89
1.39 7.59
1.52 5.96
4.48
2.30
2.S5
1.52
1.32
2.22
4.97
2.88
2.23
2.29
3.63
4.91
5.21
3
3
4
6
5
.69
;79
.96
1
f )
.99
1.89
1.71
1.67
1.58
1.49
1.51
1.57
1.47
1.51
1.41
7.84
6.21
7.26
6.46
6.67
4.08
3.06
2.93
2.44
2.40
6.21
4.72
6
H
1.61
1.50
5.38
2.76
MOD
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81. Index of consumer prices
83. Federal cash receipts from the public..
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
total
', . . .3.72
.
3.39
87 * General imports , total
3.52 3.C2
8.C6
94. Index of construction contracts, total value.. 8.29
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement... 25.35 24.41
15.57 15.00
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. busi29.19 29.33
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
.64
2.08
1.97
.32
1
.32
5.96
2.14 16.70
5,96
1.51
2.63
1.69
1.17
2.51
1.99
.72
2
3
2
2
3
3
1
.82
.87
.98
.64
.80
.63
.72
2,91
2.41
3.44
2.46
2.20
2.27
3.37
1.95
1.93
2.27
1.62
1.70
1.67
1.77
17.11
15.40
15.50
17.78
17.00
22,00
23.57
5.28
6.91
6.13
4.08
^.09
9.50
3.37
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121.
122,
123.
125.
126.
127.
128.
OECD European countries, index of indus . prod..-.
United Kingdom, index of industrial prod
Canada, index of industrial production
West Germany, index of industrial production..
France, index of industrial production
Italy, index of industrial production
Japan, index of industrial production
Quarterly series
1.32
1.29
.98
1.61
1.79
1.70
2.09
1.03
1,29
,88
1..15
1,63
1.61
1.15
.68
.49
.52
.98
.65
.81
1.60
CI
I
C,
I/c
I/e
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
c;
QCD
2.82
2.83
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602
manufacturing corporations
11.15
7.66
16 « Corporate profits after taxes
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
7.73
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income origin5.78
1
1
.92
.85
2.82
2.83
1.48
1.65
5.17
3-64
2
.51
2.83
1.42
5.67
3.85
.89
1
.89
2.89
1,49
5.50
2.89
1.13
1.59
1.45
-58
.43
.57
1
1
1
.58
.43
.57
3.19
4.25
4.64
1..50
1.42
1.46
5.10
6.38
7.29
3.19
4.25
4.64
2.94
.51
1
.51
4.U
1.55
5.67
4.64
7.00
4-54
7.59
5.35
5-06
5.01
3.73
4.17
.65
.69
,82
.92
.85
1.01
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
49* Gross national product in current dollars
57. Final sales (series 49 minus 21)
1.44
1.88
1.60
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and equip3.61
1.49
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
97. Backlog of .capital appropriations, manufacturing
1.02
.60
.84
.71
1
.71
2.68
1.31
7.29
2.68
2.96
1.94
2.37
.82
1
.82
2.68
1.55
6.38
2.68
6.27
1.26
5.79
.22
1
.22
4.38
1.94
5-83
4.38
•'•Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown In this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of
Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business. October 1957).
11
CI" is the average month-to-month (for_quarterly series, quarter-to-quarter) percentage change, without regard to
sign, In the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the saim* nfor the Irregular component, which is obtained by dividing the
cyclical component Into the seasonally adjusted series.
£" is the same for the cyclical component which is a smooth,
flexible moving average.
65
Appendixes
NOTES FOR APPENDIX C—Continued
"MCD" represents months for cyclical dominance. The average (without regard to sign) percentage changes in the irregular component and cyclical component are computed for 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans
(Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans. MCD is the shortest span for which the average change (without regard
to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months, all series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
MCD is small for smooth series and large for erratic series.
"QCD" represents quarters for cyclical dominance. It is
the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average change (without regard to sign) in cyclical component is larger
than the irregular average (without regard to sign) in component.
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted
series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month span£ and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C"
ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average duration of run" is a measure of smoothness, and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly
changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, it is assumed
that the "no change" is a change in the same direction as the preceding change.
The average duration of run is shown
for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD moving average. The MCD
moving average is a moving average (with the number of terras equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. For quarterly series, average duration of run is the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction.
Appendix D.-CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBER
(NOVEMBER 1962 TO DECEMBER 1963)
19>62
Nov.
Dec.
1<?63
Jan.
Feb.
4. Number of persons on temporary
layof f * all industries
83.4- 102.6 121.0 116.2
5. Av. weekly initial claims for
104.8 132.5 140.7 109.1
unemploy. insurance State
86.8 94.3 120.0 91.0
13. No. of new business incorp.1
89.9 105.1 105.2
14. Cur. liabilities of bus. failures. 99.9
15. No. of bug. failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over... 96.0 88.6 111.3 113.6
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
97.5
82.2
92.2
83.8 99.9 140.7 89,7 88.4
July
Aug.
Sept, Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
81.9 102.7
97.3 94.3 82.7 82.6 103.0 85.5
104.2 106.8 106.7 96.8 103.5 93.8
107.5 112.3 96.7 96.4 84.7 111.7
77.7 90.9 105.0 132.5
88.3 101.4 82.5 94.3
92.8 97.4 100.2 89.3
116.8 110.4
89.6
94.9 105.5
89.3
95.9
88.7
96.0
88.5
95.4 99.3 101.8 103.4 101.2
98.1
17. Price per unit of labor cost
101.1 98.1 98.6 100.6 100.9 100.5 100.0 101.0
18. Profits (before taxes) per dol.
of sales, all mfg. corp. 2
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus...
37. Purchased materials, percent re-
98.8
94.7
82 !6
96.2
98.8 109.0 108.5 110.6 109.4 102.1
96.1
93.9
91.6
99.9 100.0 100.2 100.1 100. 1 100.2 100.0
99.9
99.9
82!3
97.9
77.4
90.2
106.1
97.4
99.8 109.0 110.9 103! 3' 116.7 120,*6 113.2
98.8
95.0
siis
91.9
92.5 96.1
98.9
99.8
99.9
99.8
99.9 100.0
98.9 104.7 100.4
98.2
96.5
98.8 101.7
55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
62. Index of labor cost per unit of
output, total manufacturing
98.8 101.7 101.9 99.7 99.5
100.1 100.0
82. Federal cash payments to public.. 104.8 98.3
83. Federal cash receipts from pub... 102.3 105.1
90. Defense Department obligations —
96.0 117.4
90.7 105.0
91. Defense Dept. oblig. total
92. Military prime contract awards
72.9 108.5
128. Japan, index of industrial pro99.6 103.2
99.8 100.0
99.8 99.9 99.9 100.0 99.8 99.9 100.0 99.9 100 . 2 100.1 100.1 100.0
90.8 98.9 92.3 98.9 103.2 106.0 95.6 114.4 93.8 102.8 105.2 98.3
70.0 113.1 129.6 79.0 119.3 149.5 49.0 113.3 124.4 46.0 102.8 105.1
76,9
90.6
91.6 132.2
90.0 117.7
81.2
96.4
69.2 192.7 77.9
84.7 148.2 96.7
78.1
86.7
89. 5
79.7 125.3
93.2
92.8 216.4
68.0
72.9 92.7 90.4
72.9 108.5
94.3 100.3 109.1 99.4 100.2 100.4
98.8
96.5 98.6
99.6 103.2
97.1
97.2
89.2
95.4
99.8
96.0 117.4
90.7 105.0
These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the .National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
^•Factors are a combination of seasonal and trading day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
Appendix materials retain their original alphabetical designations.
are dropped from an issue, the continuity is interrupted.
Therefore, when appendixes
"Appendix E.—Summary Description of X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census Method II Seasonal
Adjustment Program", not included in this issue, appeared in the July 1963 issue.
"Appendix F,—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of
Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961", not included in this issue, appeared in the July 1963 issue.
66
Appendixes
Appendix G.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Series are in one of the following categories:
(l) Those that are new to the report, (2) those that h&ve been revised
historically, or (3) those for which historical data have not previously been shown. See table I, for later data.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
8,748
6,697
8,143
6,937
7,067
8,361
8,982
11,967
12,379
11,359
11,049
16,255
15,274
8,198
6,699
8,053
7,082
7,455
8,624
9,223
11,769
11,872
11,367
11,042
16,548
15,233
Apr.
13.
1948
1949
1950
1951
195?
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
9,244
6,996
8,027
7,155
7,023
' 7,956
8,445
11,665
11,826
11,250
11,042
16,346
16,561
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
7,267
7,473
7,292
6,812
8,2,23
8,436
10,709
11,628
11,546
11,251
13,669
15,363
15,035
7,268
7,676
7,109
7,U7
8,122
8,452
11,063
1 Dec.
Number of now business incorporations (Number)*
8,620
7,061
8,053
7,021
7,742
8,885
9,600
11,414
11, 445
11,507
10,636
16,604
15,280
8,246
6,958
8,378
6,858
7,760
8,968
9,280
11,242
11,947
11,109
11,752
16,296
15,176
8,066
6,849
8,359
6,7£3
7,819
6,421
9,196
11,892
11,834
11,739
12,C32
15,204
15,630
7,928
6,983
7,816
6,766
7,549
8,703
9,700
11,840
12,119
11,686
12,504
15,658
15,828
7,728
7, IS?
7,5SO
6,836
7,876
8,319
10,392
11,561
11,936
11,593
13,644
15,813
15,114
7,452
7,384
7,563
7,063
8,096
7,992
9,953
11,854
11,406
11,318
13,933
15,728
15,112
11,543
11,076
10,788
14,599
15,695
H,264
7,C
V
?,;a
7,;
7,-'
V
11,;
11,;
IV
.icy
15,5
5,959
15,S
H,C
$,,097
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased materials (Ann. rate, bil. do!.)*
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
-0.6
-2.7
+6.0
+2.6
-0.2
-2.5
-0.4
-1.9
+6.9
-3.5
-0.7
-1.5
-2.0
+3.2
+0,3
+0.8
-0.6
-2.5
-1.2
+1.0
+1.1
0.0
-0.1
-5.2
-3.2
+4.3
+4.7
+0.4
+1.8
+0.6
+6.8
-2.7
-1.1
-0.1
-0.3
-1.9
-0.8
+2.7
-1.5
-1.2
-3.5
+2.5
-3.9
+0.3
+5.5
-1.0
+0.6
-2.9
+1.1
-2.8
+0.2
+5.9
-0.9
+1.0
+0.5
+1.2
-2,7
+1.7
+1.5
0.0
+3.6
+0.4
+2.9
-3.9
•U.I
+1.9
-3.7
»0.3
-1.1
+0.4
-3.8
+3.0
0.0
-3.7
+0.8
-1.4
0.0
-0.4
+5.3
+1.3
-1.3
+1.5
+1.9
+0.5
+0.3
+2.4
+4.6
-1.0
+2.6
+2.1
-0.1
+2.4
+1.5
-0.6
+1.7
+0.5
-2.1
+3.3
+0,8
+0.5
+1.9
-2.4
-2,2
+3.5
+1.0
+2.4
+2.8
+1.0
-2.2
+4.1
+0.4
+0.2
+0.1
-0.1
-2.5
+6.1
-1.6
+2.4
+1.4
+0.3
-1.8
+0.3
-1.4
+1 ;6
~2.a
-1,7
+1.6
+2.7
-3,2
-2.4
-0.4
-0.5
+6,6
-0.5
+2.3
-0.9
+0.6
+(3.5
+31..3
+1:t.3
-0.4
+1.9
-•0.9
-1.7
+0.5
-3.4
•K
-t
•K
-r
-/H
-1
•2.4
+2
-c
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durabl© gooda Industrie (Bil, dol.)*
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1953
1959
I960
m
-0.44
-1.18
+0.54
+5.46
+0.40
+0.21
-2.18
-0.44
-0.65
+0.23
+3.52
+0.16
-0.44
-1.66
-0.14
-0.92
+0.43
+3.87
+1.79
-0.69
-1.97
+0.19
-1,11
+0.48
+3.10
+1.88
-0.55
-1.65
-0.15
-0.75
+0.56
+2.61
+0.03
-0.13
-1.45
+0.39
-1.18
+•0.99
+1.99
+2.26
-1.16
-1.75
+0.17
-0.75
+2.73
+1.90
+1.35
-1.88
-1.33
+0.24
-0.37
+4.47
+1.09
+0.91
-2.22
-1.16
-0.06
-0.04
+2.84
+0.89
+0.89
-2.74
+0.27
+0.40
+1.95
+1.58
-0.24
-2.47
+0.79
+0.34
+0.98
-0.29
-1.75
+0.88
-0.52
+0.28
+0.45
-0.38
-1.32
+1.03
-0.78
+0.85
+0.24
-0.60
-0.44
+0.86
-0.77
+0.07
+1.15
-0.82
-0.55
+0.47
-0.68
+0.45
+0.40
-0.71
-0,39
-0.17
-0.19
+0.38
+0.70
-0.99
+0.01
+0.10
-0.22
+0.67
+1.20
+0.89
+1.70
-1.45
-0.16
+0.02
-0.17
+1.14
-0.10
-1,40
-0.17
+0.45
-0.13
+1.55
-0.05
-1.98
+0,29
+0.64
-0.77
*Data are seasonally adjusted.
-i.a
+0.09
-0.13
-0.24
-0,30
+1.05
+1.13
-0.32
-2.05
-0.97
-0.
+0.
+2,
+0.
-0.
-2.
-0.
+0.73
+0.35
+1,
+0,
+0.37
-0.
-0,
-0.
+0.34
-1.36
-0.05
-0.41
-1.
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Numbers shown are page numbers)
Series
number1 1
1
2
3....
4....
5....
6....
7
9....
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
10....
11....
12....
13.....
14....
15....
16....
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
17
18..,.
19....
20....
21..,.
22
23....
24....
9
9
9
10
10
9
10
7
25....
26....
29....
30....
31....
32....
37....
10
10
7
6
10
10
10
40....
.41....
42....
43...45-...
46. ...
47....
49....
11
11
11
11
11
11
12
12
50....
51....
52....
53....
54. ...
55....
57....
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
61....
62....
63....
64....
65....
66....
67....
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
81....
82....
83....
84....
85....
86....
87...,
88....
89....
90....
91....
17
16
16
16
17
15
15
15
15
16
16
2
3
1
4
5
4*
53 i 20
48
20
20
20
20
20
21
21
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
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SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES.-Continued
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Appendixes
Tables
Charts
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series and"Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or *'EOQ".
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and *'EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk(*) were included
in the I960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, m a n u f a c t u r i n g (M).»
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance,
State programs (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*6. Value of manufacturers* new orders, durable goods industries
(M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
*7. New private nonfarm d w e l l i n g units started (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).--Department
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and F. W. Dodge
Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing cor-
*12.
13.
*14.
15.
*16,
porations (Q).—National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.j seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Number of business failures with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and
over (M).—Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).--Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower d e l i v e r i e s (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories (M).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M),--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Ml.
45.
46.
*47.
*49.
*50.
*51.
*5Z
53.
*54.
*55.
17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M).—Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing cor-
porations (Q),—Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased
materials (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valua-
tion adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all
industries (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, from special tabulations of the Office of Business
Economics
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods indus-
tries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commit-
ments 60 days or longer (M).—National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).-
Depaitment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
57.
Average weekly
insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). — Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
Gross national product in current dollars (Q).— Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Of).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).--Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Personal income (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Soles of retail stores (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census and Office of Business Economics
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).--Department of
merce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*6l.
Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).--
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in m a n u f a c t u r i n g
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and
salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP in 1954 dollars) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all m a n u f a c t u r i n g industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*66- Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base).
*67. Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q). —Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
PENALTY FOR PRIVAYI USl TO AVOID
PAYMENT OF POKTAOK, S1OO
(OPO»
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, O, C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
18 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81. Index of consumer prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).—Treasury Department,
Bureau of Acp aunts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because or differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment.
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).—Treasury Depart-
ment, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the
President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly
totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of
differences in the method of seasonal adjustment.
84. F deral cash surplus or deficit (M).--Treasury Department, Bu-
euu of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bueau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bueau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
easonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment,
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M).-- Board of Governors of the Federal ReSystem
86. Exports, excluding mil itary aid shipments, total (M).—Depart-
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Q).-National
Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).—
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M).--Organtion for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--Organ-
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).— Domini on Bureau
of Statistics, Ottawa
125. West Germany, index of Industrial production (M).--Organiza-
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
126. France, index of industrial production (M).--Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).--The Bank of Japan,
Statistics Department; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
... United States, Index of industrial production (M).--See series47.
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. Genera) imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).--De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).-Department of De-
fense, Eiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).-De-
partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings)
(M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).-F. W. Dodge
Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q).—De-
partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries(EOM).-
Departmt'iit of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
DIFFUSION INDEXES
The *'D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
.ndexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same
jiumber and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above
:or DI, D5, I>6> Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D<51. Sources for
Dther diffusion indexes are as follows:
D33.
Profits, Chicago PAA (M).--Purchasing Agents Associsition
of Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank
of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components.
Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight carloodings (Q).-Association of American Railroads;
no seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment of series
components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
@FedFRASER