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i BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST APRIL 1988 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE C. William Verity, Secretary Robert Ortner, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Allan H. Young, Director Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections George R. Green, Editor This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are— Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes Mary D. Young—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541) The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources at the back of this report. This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting of the following persons: Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Peter M. Taylor, Council of Economic Advisers Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce ABOUT THIS REPORT BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides a monthly look at many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. The original BCD, which began publication in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and prospects. The report's contents were based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its usefulness to analysts using other approaches to business conditions analysis. Principal additions to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's present title was adopted. The dominant feature of the current BCD is the cyclical indicators section, in which each business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its behavior at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of presentation is explained in the introductory text which begins on page 1. Most of the data contained in this report also are published by their source agencies. A series finding guide and a complete list of series titles and sources can be found at the back of the report. Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic, $55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestig, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available on request. Address correspondence concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents. Cyclical Indicators are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process and by their average timing at business cycle peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks and troughs combined. These indicators have been selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they also have proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. They include selected components of the national income and product accounts; measures of prices, wages, and productivity; measures of the labor force, employment, and unemployment; economic data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with major foreign countries. BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST New Features and Changes for This Issue METHOD OF PRESENTATION Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Part I. Cyclical Indicators Part II. Other Important Economic Measures How To Read Charts How To Locate a Series Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes BCII iii 1 1 1 1 4 5 5 6 APRIL 1 9 8 8 Data Through March Volume 28, Number 4 PART I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Al A2 A3 A4 Bl B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 Cl C2 C3 COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Composite Indexes Leading Index Components Coincident Index Components Lagging Index Components Chart 10 12 14 15 Table 60 — — — CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Employment and Unemployment Production and Income Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit 16 19 21 23 26 28 31 61 63 64 65 68 69 71 DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components Rates of Change 36 — 39 74 77 — The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. ItCII PART II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E l NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GNP and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Government Purchases of Goods and Services pAHj Foreign Trade 1 A6 I National Income and Its Components [_A7J Saving 1 ~A8 ! Shares of GNP and National Income • ? • Chart Table 40 80 41 80 42 81 43 81 44 82 45 82 46 82 47 83 PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Price Movements Wages and Productivity 48 49 84 87 [ Cl ] LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Civilian Labor Force and Major Components 51 89 WE | Dl 1 ! D2 | GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Receipts and Expenditures Defense Indicators 52 53 90 90 Merchandise Trade Goods and Services Movements 56 57 92 93 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Industrial Production Consumer Prices Stock Prices 58 59 59 94 95 96 fBin |~B2 1 Q | U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS PART III. APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators) QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators) B. Current Adjustment Factors (March 1988 issue) C. Historical Data for Selected Series D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide") E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (January 1988 issue) F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators G. Experimental Data and Analyses Alphabetical Index—Series FindingGuide Titles and Sources of Series 97 105 106 110 114 Readers are invited to submit comments and suggestions concerning this publication. Address them to Business Conditions Digest, Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230 NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE A limited number of changes are made from time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic research, newly available time series, and revisions made by Changes in this issue are as follows: source agencies in 1. Recent revisions in retail sales in current and 1982 dollars (series 54 and 5 9 ) , manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (series 5 7 ) , and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (series 77) have been carried back to 1978. Revised data from 1983 forward for these series were introduced in the March 1988 BCD. (See item 1 on page iii of that issue.) Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Business Division (series 5 4 ) , and Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division (series 57, 59, and 77). concept, composition, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may result in revisions of data, additions or deletions of series, changes in placement of series in relation to other series, changes in composition of 2. The series on manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (series 56) has been revised from 1967 forward, and the series on manufacturing and trade inventories in current dollars (series 31 and 71) have been revised from 1980 forward. These revisions reflect (a) revised data on retail sales from 1967 forward (see item 1 on page iii of the April 1987 and March 1988 ]3CD) and retail inventories from 1980 forward, and (b) revised data on merchandise wholesale sales and inventories from 1980 forward. In this issue, revised data on manufacturing and trade inventories are carried back to 1982; earlier revisions will be included in a future issue. Revised data for the constant-dollar series based wholly or in part on these data (series 36, 57, 70, and 77) will be included in a future issue. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Business Division. (Continued on page iv.) The May issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on June 7. indexes, etc. 3. Recent revisions in the money supply measures (series 85, 102, and 105-108) have been carried back to 1947, and revisions in total liquid assets (series 104) have been carried back to 1959. Revised data from 1986 forward for these series were introduced in the February 1988 BCD. (See item 9 on page iv of that issue.) Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Banking Section. 4. The series based wholly or in part on consumer installment credit (series 66, 95, 111, and 113) have been revised from 1980 forward. These revisions reflect the updating of the statistics based on newly available benchmark data and the computation of new seasonal adjustment factors. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Mortgage and Consumer Finance Section (series 66 and 113), and the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division (series 95 and 111). 5. The series containing data on commercial paper issued by nonfinancial companies (series 72, 101, 111, and 112) have been revised from 1984 forward. Data from 1985 forward were revised by the source agency to reflect annual updating and the computation of new seasonal adjustment factors. Data for 1984 through 1987 were adjusted to reflect an increase in the size of the reporting panel. (For additional revisions affecting series 111, see item 4 above.) In addition, the series on commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars (series 101) has been revised from 1947 forward to incorporate the recent revision in the producer price index used as a deflator. (See item 4 on page iv of the February 1988 BCD.) Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Market Reports Division, 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10045, and the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division. 6. Appendix C contains historical data for series 6-8, 36, 53, 98, 99, 341, 732, 733, and 735-738. 7. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 50, 73, 74, and 86. IV METHOD OF PRESENTATION This report is organized into two major parts. Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time series which have been found to conform well to broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are individual indicators, the rest are related analytical measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes, and rates of change. Part II, Other Important Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are valuable to business analysts and forecasters but which do not conform well enough to business cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a few exceptions: Four series which are included in part I are also shown in part II to complete the systematic presentation of certain sets of data, such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest section of part II consists of quarterly series from the national income and product accounts; other sections relate to prices, labor force, government and defense-related activities, and international transactions and comparisons. The two parts are further divided into sections (see table of contents), and each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction. Data are shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts begin with 1962, but those for the composite indexes and their components (part I, section A) begin with 1952, and a few charts use a two-panel format which covers only the period since 1976. Except for section F in part II, charts contain shading which indicates periods of recession in general business activity. The tables contain data for only the last few years. The historical data for the various time series are contained in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series. Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, specific cycle turning dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other information of analytical interest. An index appears at the back of each issue. It should be noted that the series numbers used are for identification purposes only and do not reflect precise relationships or order. However, all series considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in the range 1 to 199. Seasonal Adjustments Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1. The charts in this report generally include centered MCD moving averages for those series with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Reference Turning Dates The historical business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until after both the new reference peak and the new reference trough bounding the shaded area have been designated. The historical reference turning dates are subject to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed as a result of revisions in important economic time series. The dates shown in this publication for the 1948-70 time period are those determined by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82. Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Business cycles have been defined as sequences of expansion and contraction in various economic processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment, income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive, business cycles of historical experience have been definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in duration and intensity, reflecting changes in economic systems, conditions, policies, and outside disturbances. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is the cyclical indicators approach. This approach identifies certain economic time series as tending to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad movements in aggregate economic activity. Such indicators have been selected and analyzed by NBER in a series of studies published between 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research staff. The present format and content of part I of BCD are based on the results of that study. Section A. Composite Indexes and Their Components All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, conformity to business expansions and contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme was developed and used to assess each series by all of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series during the period 1947-70. This analysis, produced a new list of indicators classified by economic process and typical timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below relating to section B.) This information, particularly the scores relating to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the selection of series to be included in the composite indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring series from many different economic-process groups and combine those with similar timing behavior, using their overall performance scores as weights. Because they use series of historically tested usefulness and given timing characteristics (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), with diversified economic coverage and a minimum of duplication, composite indexes give more reliable signals over time than do any of the individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks \ Economic \Process CyclicalX Timing \ . LEADING (L) INDICATORS (61 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (24 series) 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (19 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Marginal employment adjustments (3 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) Orders and deliveries (6 series) Consumption and trade (2 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (5 series) Residential construction (3 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Inventories on hand and on order (1 series) Stock prices (1 series) Sensitive commodity prices (2 series) Profits and profit margins (7 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (5 series) Credit flows (5 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (2 series) Interest rates (1 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) Industrial production (4 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Business investment expenditures (6 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (19 series) Comprehensive unemployment (2 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (8 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) Business investment expenditures (1 series) Velocity of money (2 series) Interest rates (2 series) Inventories on hand and on order (4 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Interest rates (4 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) Sensitive commodity prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (1 series) Interest rates (1 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Consumption and trade (1 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. V. VI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (19 series) INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Stock prices (1 series) Sensitive commodity prices (3 series) Profits and profit margins (6 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (4 series) Credit flows (5 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Profits and profit margins (2 series) Money (1 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Interest rates (8 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs \ Economic N . Process Cyclical^v Timing 1. II. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) Marginal employment adjustments (1 series) Industrial production (1 series) Orders and deliveries (5 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (4 series) Residential construction (3 series) Marginal employment adjustments (2 series) Comprehensive employment (4 series) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) Industrial production (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) Consumption and trade (3 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Orders and deliveries (1 series) Business investment commitments (2 series) Business investment expenditures (7 series) \^ LEADING (L) INDICATORS (47 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS MiL/lv/11 U M O (41 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (1 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (5 series) Inventories on hand and on order (5 series) Bank reserves (1 series) independent measurement error and other "noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly series that are acceptable in terms of relatively prompt availability and reasonable accuracy. The main composite indexes are distinguished by their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, series which historically reached their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the corresponding business cycle turns. There is an index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting of series which historically reached their turning points at about the same time as the general economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which includes series that typically reached their peaks and troughs later than the corresponding business cycle turns. The leading index contains series with long as well as short leads, but each series leads on the average over time and shows a frequency of leads at the individual turns exceeding that attributable to chance, given the historical distribution of cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948, leads were generally more frequent and longer at peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags were generally more frequent and longer at troughs than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and classifying the indicators takes into account these well-established differences in timing. Consequently, rough coincidences include short leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through + 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and plus denotes lags in months.) For purposes of constructing a composite index, each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are divided by the long-run average (without regard to sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile series are prevented from dominating the index. The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the trends of its four components. This trend, which is similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be viewed as a linear approximation to the secular movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both their trends and their average month-to-month percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index. (For a more detailed description of the method of constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.) In addition to these principal composite indexes, differentiated according to cyclical timing, there are other indexes based on leading indicators that have been grouped by economic process. Taken together, these additional indexes include many component series of the overall leading index, plus a few related series. Also shown in this section is the ratio of the index of roughly coincident indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a series known to have a useful pattern of early cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of the composite indexes show the length, in months, of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference turning dates covered. The next set of data consists of series included in the principal composite indexes. These are the 11 components of the leading index, the 4 components of the coincident index, and the 6 components of the lagging index. Following the title of each series, its typical timing is identified by three letter symbols in a small box. The first of these letters refers to the timing of the given indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a tendency to roughly coincide with the business cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency to lag. Since these series have been selected for the consistency of their timing at peaks and troughs, all but one component of the leading index are denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that these classifications are based on limited evidence, namely the performance of the indicators during the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which included five peaks and five troughs. While the timing classifications are expected to agree with the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will not necessarily hold invariably in every instance. The timing of the series in the period since 1970 can be determined by inspection of the charts, where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference cycle chronology. Section 8. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process This section covers 112 individual time series, including the 21 indicators used in the construction of the composite indexes. The peak and trough timing classifications are shown on the charts in the same manner as described above, but this section includes series with different timing at peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at turning points of the given type. Eight series are unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 18 series at all turns (of the 18, 14 have definite but different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs is included in the list of cyclical indicators. The classification scheme which groups the indicators of this section by economic process and cyclical timing is summarized in the two tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is based on the observed behavior of the series at five business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58, February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation distinguishes seven major economic processes and four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells identify subgroups of the given economic process with the given timing characteristic. The number of series in each such group is given in parentheses following the title. Complete information on how individual indicators are classified by timing at peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected measures and scores, is provided in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from numerous components. How the individual components of an aggregate move over a given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index which indicates the percentage of components that are rising (with half of the unchanged components considered rising). Cyclical changes in these diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, they are computed from changes measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter) spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans. Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes are shown for the component series included in each of the three composite indexes and for the components of some of the aggregate series shown in section B. Diffusion measures can be derived not only from actual data but also from surveys of anticipations or intentions. Indexes based on responses of business executives about their plans and expectations for several operating variables are presented, along with the corresponding indexes based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion series. This section also records rates of change for the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate economic activity: GNP in constant dollars (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours in nonagricultural establishments, and personal income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for 1-quarter spans. Although movements in diffusion indexes and in rates of change for the same aggregates are generally positively correlated, these two measures present information about two related but distinct aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes measure the prevailing direction or scope of change, while rates of change measure the degree as well as the overall direction. As is the case for diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates of change tend to lead those of the corresponding indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead at the business cycle turns as well. Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES This part is divided into six sections which cover a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series measuring various aspects of economic activity. Some of these series are very comprehensive, pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others have to do with particular sectors or markets, and still others relate to U.S. international transactions or to selected foreign countries. The represented variables include incomes, outputs, and expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; labor resources; government receipts, expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few key foreign countries. Section A. National Income and Product The national income and product accounts, compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy. Section Al shows the gross national product, final sales, and personal and disposable personal income. The four major components of the gross national product—personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, government purchases of goods and services, and net exports of goods and services—are presented in sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in section A are presented in current as well as constant dollars. There are also a few per capita series. The national income and product accounts, briefly defined below, are described more fully in the Survey of Current Business, Part I, January 1976. Gross national product (GNP) is the market value of final goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by residents of the United States, before deduction of allowances for the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the most comprehensive measure of aggregate economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in business inventories. Personal income is the income received by persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments, less personal contributions for social insurance. Disposable personal income is the personal income available for spending or saving. It consists of personal income less personal taxes and nontax payments to government. Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is goods and services purchased by individuals, operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included. Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed capital goods purchased by private business and nonprofit institutions and the value of the change in the physical volume of inventories held by private business. The former include all private purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used goods are also included. Government purchases of goods and services (A4) is the compensation of government employees and purchases from business and from abroad. It excludes transfer payments, interest paid by government, and subsidies. It includes gross investment by government enterprises but excludes their current outlays. It includes net purchases of used goods and excludes sales and purchases of land and financial assets. Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports less imports of goods and services. Exports are part of the national production; imports are not, but are included in the components of GNP and are therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. international transactions is provided in section E. National income (A6) is the incomes that originate in the production of goods and services attributable to labor and property supplied by residents of the United States. Thus, it measures the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of employees, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, corporate profits, and net interest. Saving (A7) is the difference between income and expenditures during an accounting period. Total gross saving includes personal saving, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate profits and capital consumption allowances), and government surplus or deficit. Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The major expenditure components of GNP (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as percentages of GNP, and the major income components of national income (compensation of employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as percentages of national income. Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity The important data on price movements include the monthly consumer and producer price indexes and their major components. Based largely on these series are the quarterly price indexes from the national income and product accounts, notably the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights reflecting the changing proportions of different expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are presented for the period since 1976. The group of series on wages and productivity consists of data on average hoifrly earnings and average hourly compensation (including earnings and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, output per hour of work in the business sector, and rates of change for most of these measures. Section C. Labor Unemployment Force, Employment, and This section contains measures of the civilian labor force and its major components: Total numbers of employed and unemployed persons. The number of unemployed is subdivided into selected categories defined by sex, age, and class of worker. Also included are data on participation rates for a few principal segments of the labor force. Section D. Government Activities Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels: (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local government. Also shown is a selection of series from the discontinued Defense Indicators. These series measure defense activities which influence short-term changes in the national economy. Included are series relating to obligations, contracts, orders, production, shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment. These series are grouped according to the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense order-production-delivery process. Series measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders, are classified as "advance measures of defense activity." Series measuring activities which tend to coincide with production, such as employment, and activities which usually follow production, such as shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final measures of defense activity." Section E. U.S. International Transactions This group includes monthly series on exports (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a few selected components of these aggregates. Also shown are the balances between receipts and expenditures for goods and services, merchandise, and investment income. Section F. International Comparisons This section is designed to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which we have important trade relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1976) provide important measures of the rates of inflation in the major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also shown beginning in 1976) tend to be significant as leading indicators. HOW TO READ CHARTS Basic Data Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded area) as designated by NBER. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("9" = September) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or moving averages.) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where a moving average is plotted. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Parallel lines indicates a break in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.). Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A " is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-1" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles in that distance, etc. Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over 1-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over various spans. Diffusion indexes and rates of change are centered within the spans they cover. Solid line indicates percent changes over 3- or 6-month spans. Rates of Change ^>^M#t^^^ nr / Arabic number indicates latest month used in computing the changes. Broken line indicates percent changes over 1-month spans. Broken line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 1-quarter spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 3-or 4-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter used in computing the changes. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, o r - 2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of the report where series are listed numerically according to series numbers within each of the report's sections. Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data Percent change £ Series title and timing classification of Annual average measure 1986 1987 3d Q 1987 4th Q 1987 1st Q 1988 Jan. 1988 Feb 1988 Mar. 1988 Jan. to Feb 1988 Feb. to Mar. 1988 3d Q to 4th Q 1987 4th Q to 1st Q 1988 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Al. 910. 920. 930. 940. Composite Indexes Eleven leading indicators Four roughly coincident indicators Six lagging indicators Ratio, coincident index to lagging index Leading Indicator Subgroups: 914. Capital investment commitments 915. Inventory investment and purchasing 916. Profitability 917. Money and financial flows 179.3 164.7 141.9 116.1 189.6 169.4 142.5 118.9 191.8 169.8 142 . 2 119.5 191.0 172 . 6 143. 1 120.6 191.4 173.8 144 . 3 120.5 18 173. 0 143 . 6 120.5 191.7 174.0 144.3 120.6 193.3 174.5 144.9 120.4 109.5 103.4 119.0 143.9 NA 106 . 2 NA 145.9 NA 106.7 125 . 2 144 . 8 NA 107 . 1 NA 146 . 7 NA 106.7 NA NA NA 106 . 8 NA 144 . 6 NA 106.5 NA 148. 1 Hours L,L,I do L.C.L.... L.C.L.... Thousands 40.7 3.4 370 41.0 3.7 320 40.9 3.7 303 41.2 3.9 296 41.0 3.8 325 41 .2 3.9 351 L.Lg.U.... Ratio L.Lg.U.... 1967 = 100 0.500 138 0 . 6 16 153 0.652 158 0.67 1 160 0.670 156 0.646 153 189.44 109 . 6 7 102 . 2 8 24 , 8 8 4 192.42 110.2 7 103.29 25 , 1 6 4 193.86 110.97 104.26 25 , 3 2 4 1967 = 100 L.L.l do CCC... do Lg.Lg.Lg.... do L,L,I L.L.I— L.L.I— L.L.L.... L.L.I do do do do 0.2 0.7 0.8 -0.1 910 920 930 940 NA 0.4 NA 1 .3 NA -0.4 NA NA 914 915 9 16 9 17 0.7 0.2 2 .3 -0.5 -0. 1 -9 .8 1 21 5 -0.001 -2 .5 6 0 46 1 .6 0.5 1 .0 1 . 1 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 48 42 41 40 0 . 19 0.23 90 1 .3 0.6 0.5 0. 1 0.8 0 .3 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 1 .6 0.6 0.9 NA 106.9 NA NA NA -0.3 NA 2 .4 NA 0.4 NA NA 41.0 3.7 32 1 40.9 3.7 304 -0.5 -0.2 8.5 -0.2 0. 5 .3 0.669 156 0.696 159 0.023 2 .0 0.027 1 .9 193.00 194.57 1 10.84 111.18 103.83 104.34 25,205 25,342 194.01 110.90 104.61 25 , 4 2 6 0.8 0. 3 0.5 0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0. 11 -0.21 9.2 B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process Bl. Employment and Unemployment Marginal Employment Adjustments: * 1 . Average weekly hours, mfg 21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3 *5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted4) Job Vacancies: 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3 46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Comprehensive Employment: 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments 42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities *41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 40. Employees in goods-producing industries 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age3 Comprehensive Unemployment: 37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted4) 43. Unemployment rate (inverted4)3 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.4)3 *91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted4) 44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3 B2. U.C.C.... A.r.. bil. hrs U.C.C.... Millions do CCC... L.C.U.... Thousands U.Lg.U.... Percent L.Lg.U.... L.Lg.U.... L.Lg.U.... Lg.Lg.Lg.... Lg.Lg.Lg.... 59 . 9 4 60.77 60.91 61.10 61.33 61 . 3 3 61 . 4 4 61.23 8,237 7 .0 2 .8 15.0 1.9 7 ,425 6 .2 2 .4 14.5 1 .7 7 , 199 6 . 0 2 .3 14.2 1 .6 7 ,082 5 .9 2 . 1 14 . 1 1 .5 6 ,928 5 . 7 2 .3 14.2 1.4 7 ,046 5.8 2.3 14.4 1 .4 6,938 5 .7 2 .3 14.4 1 .4 6,801 5 .6 2 .2 13.7 1 .4 37 1 3 . 3 3093.6 382 1 . 0 3152.1 3835 .9 3148.1 3880.8 3194.3 3902 . 6 32 1 0 . 1 3195. 1 3 2 13.4 do 2639.9 2695.1 2691. 3 2737.4 2741.4 2728.7 do 54 1 . 6 537 .2 534.9 540.7 542.0 540.2 125 . 1 128.4 130. 1 1595.0 129. 8 133.1 136.7 1655.2 130.9 133.7 13 8 . 6 1666.8 133.2 136.9 139.7 16 8 9 . 7 134.5 138.0 141 . 9 17 0 8 . 9 Thousands Percent do Weeks Percent 1 .5 0. 1 0. 0. 0. 2 .0 0. 1 0. 1 4.9 0. 1.6 0. 1 0.2 0.7 0. 1 2 .2 0.2 -0.2 -0.7 0. 1 37 43 45 91 44 322 1.9 0.6 0.3 1 . 2 1 . 5 0 .6 0.5 50 52 2744 .6 2751.0 0.6 0.2 1 .7 0. 1 5 1 541.2 544 .7 0 .2 0.6 1 . 1 0.2 53 134.4 137.7 141.9 134.4 137.9 141.8 134.6 138.3 141.9 0. 1 0.3 0. 1 1 . 8 2 .4 0.8 1 . 4 1 .0 0.8 1 .6 1 . 1 47 73 74 49 -0. 1 0. 0.9 1 .9 0. 1 0. 0. 1 -0. 3 3.8 2 .7 1 .5 0.5 6 7 1 .6 -1.44 1 .0 - 2 -0.1 -2 .82 0.2 3 1 .9 -0.54 2 . 1 5 -0.5 0.68 2 .6 - 1 8 25 96 32 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 NA NA 0. 0.8 0.3 NA NA 1 .8 1 .7 1 .6 4 . 7 6.8 56 57 75 54 59 55 58 1 .0 NA 12 13 Production and Income Comprehensive Output and Income: 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars 52. Personal income in 1982 dollars *51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction CCC... A r., bil. dol '....do CCC... CCC... CCC... Industrial Production: *47. Industrial production 73. Industrial production, durable mfrs 74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars CCC... CCC... C.L.I— CCC... Capacity Utilization: 82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3 L.C.U.... L.C.U.... B3. 18 5 . 3 1 1 8 9 . 8 1 1 0 6 . 4 3 109 . 23 9 9 . 6 1 102. 1 1 24 , 6 8 1 24 , 8 8 4 0.019 1.3 1977 = 100 do do A.r., bil. dol do 79.7 78.6 8 1.0 80.5 8 1.4 81.0 82 . 3 82 . 9 82 . 6 82 . 6 82 . 8 83.0 82 . 6 82 . 4 do 99.93 92.94 107 . 4 8 98 . 03 108.41 98.68 112 . 5 6 101.37 114.26 101 . 8 4 114.20 101 . 9 6 114.26 101 . 9 3 Percent 8 0 . 83 - 0 . 10 361.86 52 84.52 84.69 2 . 33 3.2 1 389.86 381.85 6 1 64 8 6.15 2.67 389.86 69 85 . 7 2 3.35 399 .9 1 6 8 84.85 86.19 5 .25 3.81 395. 1 1 3 9 8.92 68 66 CCC... Bil. dol do CCC... C.L.C.... 1977 = 100 C.L.U... Bil. dol do U.L.U... L.C.C.... A.r., bil. dol L.L.L... IQ 1966=100. 425 . 0 8 4 1 8 . 14 124 . 0 119.79 111.98 135.3 94.8 452.89 432 . 6 3 127.7 125 . 8 8 113,29 130.2 90.6 459.79 436 .76 128. 7 1 2 8 . 34 115 . 0 0 148.3 9 3.9 465 . 4 1 436.94 129 . 4 127.56 113.48 129.8 86 . 4 NA 4 6 5 . 7 3 NA 4 3 7 . 4 1 131.7 131 . 4 1 2 9 . 6 7 12 8 . 77 115 . 2 6 1 1 4 . 4 6 135.9 90.8 92 . 3 120.4 58,474 120.5 57 , 0 5 3 120.5 57 , 5 0 0 12 1 . 6 55,383 Percent 82 . 5 82 . 4 0. 0. 1 -0. 1 -0.2 -0.6 0.3 -0.3 82 84 Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Orders and Deliveries: 6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods 7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods *8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials 25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3 96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5 *32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 ( u ) Consumption and Trade: 56. Manufacturing and trade sales *57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars 75. Industrial production, consumer goods 54. Sales of retail stores 59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles 58. Index of consumer sentiment ( u ) B4. L.L.I L.L.L.... L.L.I— L.L.I L.Lg.U... L.L.I Bil. dol do do Bil. dol., EOP ... 468.30 438.97 131.9 12 9 . 5 8 115 . 4 9 114.32 101.62 8 6 . 12 0.99 399 . 9 1 69 NA NA 131.9 130.66 115.83 91.6 94.6 0.9 3.3 1 .2 0. 0.5 -0.6 -1.3 -12.5 -8.0 122.8 NA 122 . 4 MA -0.3 NA -0.3 NA 0.9 -3.7 0.6 Fixed Capital Investment Formation of Business Enterprises: 12. Net business formation 13. New business incorporations Business Investment Commitments: 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment *20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars 24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods 27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods L.L.I— L.L.I— 1967 = 100 Number L.L.L... Bil. dol 122.8 NA 12 3 . 2 54,913 31.22 34.41 35 . 3 7 36.21 38.41 38.60 38.83 37.79 L.L.L... L.L.I— do do 34.17 26.56 37.65 29.61 39.05 30.42 39 . 4 7 31 . 4 6 42 . 5 9 33.95 43.45 34.79 42.76 33.75 41 . 5 7 33.31 L.L.L... do 30.03 33.47 34.76 35.36 38.76 40.17 3 8 . 39 37.72 -2 .7 2 .4 6 . 1 10 -1.6 -3.0 -2.8 -1.3 1 . 1 3.4 7 . 9 7.9 2C 24 -4.4 -1.7 1 .7 9.6 27 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Percent change Unit Series title and timing classification Annual average 3d Q 1987 4th Q 1987 Jan. to Feb. 1st Q 1988 3d Q to 4th Q 1987 Feb. to Mar. 4th Q to 1st Q 1988 I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con. B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con. Business Investment Commitments—Con.: 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and Mil. sq. ft industrial buildings, floor space L,C,U. Bil. dol 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg U,Lg,U. I. dol., EOP . 97. Backlog of capital appropriations mfg.5 C,Lg,Lg.... Business Investment Expenditures: 61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment 69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 76. Industrial production, business equipment 86. Nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars Residential Construction Commitments and Investment: 28. New private housing units started *29. Building permits, new private housing units 89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars 77 . 0 6 2 1.42 69.72 80.73 29.37 76.81 C,Lg,Lg... A.r., bil. dol... do C,Lg,Lg... C,Lg,U... 1977 = 100... C,Lg,C... A.r., bil. dol... . L,L,L. . L,L,L. . L.L.L. A.r., thousands 1967 = 100.... A.r., bil. dol.... 85 . 14 29.81 74.7 1 80.83 33.98 76 .81 78.41 NA NA -5 . 1 14.0 393. 13 409 . 37 -3.0 NA NA 4. 1 391 . 4 3 139.5 443.8 403.03 144.4 448. 3 >12 .05 145.8 463.8 422 .73 148 .9 465.6 1,805 141.3 196 . 4 1,621 122 .5 196.4 1,619 119.4 193.5 1 ,533 114.1 197.0 1 ,480 110.2 192 .2 60.5 57 .9 5 .33 1 .7 27 . 4 9 52.7 27 . 5 9 34.6 6 5 7 . 12 7 0 9 . 8 5 6 4 3 . 2 9 669.04 103.23 107 . 5 7 NA 151.6 488.3 435 .30 435.58 1 , 382 100.2 1 , 5 14 113.4 31 . 34 81 . 3 41.68 62. 1 39.29 9.9 689.51 658.31 104.77 709.85 669.04 107 . 5 7 715.03 674.53 108.70 715 .85 675.57 109 .29 1.5 1 1.52 1.54 1. 54 NA 152.4 1 , 543 116.9 0. 1 0.3 9.6 13.2 NA 0.7 1 .9 3. 1 2 .6 2 . 1 0.4 NA 1 .8 4 .9 -5.3 -4.4 1.8 -3.5 -3.4 -2.4 35 .9 -2 .6 B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment Inventory Investment: 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3 *36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (smoothed6)3 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories3 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order' Inventories on Hand and on Order: 71. Mfg. and trade inventories5 70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars 5 .. • 65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods5 • *77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars3 78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order5 L,L,L.. L.L.L. L.L.L.. L.L.L.. Lg,Lg,Lg.. Lg,Lg,Lg.. ....do ....do -2 .39 -52 .2 3.75 46 .7 Bil. dol Bil. dol., EOP . ....do ....do 3.0 1 .6 2 .7 Lg.Lg.Lg.... Ratio 1.54 1 .52 0.01 L.Lg.Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP . 226.64 246 . 6 7 2 4 0 . 18 246 . 6 7 250.76 25 1.2 1 2 .7 B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Sensitive Commodity Prices: 98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3 23. Spot market prices, raw industrial m a t e r i a l s © *99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3 L.L.I Percent U.L.L.... 1967 = 100 L.L.I Percent Stock Prices: *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks ( u ) L.L.L... Profits and Profit Margins: 16. Corporate profits after tax 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars 79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj 80 do , in 1982 dollars 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3 26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business L.L.I A.r., bil. dol... ....do L.L.L.. L.C.L... ....do ....do L.C.L.. L.L.I Cents L.L.I 1977 = 100... 126 . 116.7 179.4 170.0 3.7 99 . 2 137.8 123.2 168.4 154.3 4 . 99 .6 141.9 126 .8 172.0 157 .7 5 .6 100.2 145.6 129.5 173.0 157.3 4.3 99.9 2 .6 2 . 1 0.6 -0.3 -1.3 -0. Cash Flows: 34. Corporate net cash flow 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars L.L.L... A.r., bil. dol.. ....do L.L.L... 368.9 369 . 0 388. 3 388.0 3 9 2.2 391.5 397 .9 397 .8 1.5 1. 0.8 Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 63. Unit labor cost, business sector Lg.Lg.Lg... 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations Lg.Lg.Lg... 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. a) Actual data Lg.Lg.Lg... *b) Actual data as percent of trend3 Lg,Lg,Lg... 64. Compensation of employees as percent of national income3 0.43 228.9 O. 16 1 .35 274.5 0.98 2 .28 288.3 1.50 286.83 1941-43 = 10. 1 .26 293.2 1 .05 0.72 291.2 0 . 17 0.60 292 .5 0.33 255 . 3 8 2 5 8 . 12 250.48 1977 = 100 166.9 170.2 169.8 17 1 . 2 Dollars 0 . 7 15 0.728 0.727 0.735 1977 = 100 Percent 137.8 10 0 . 4 135.4 98 . 7 134.6 98. 1 134.9 98 . 3 1 .32 0.29 0.76 0.27 0.65 0.38 587 . 0 631.8 2 3 6 6 . 2 2430.4 0.24 0.34 0.39 630. 1 2424.3 0 . 15 0.24 0.3 3 630.5 2425 . 3 6.065 1.311 6.116 1.331 0.07 288.9 0.07 1.49 292 .3 0. 10 -0.53 -1.2 -0.26 1 .42 1 .2 0.03 -1 .02 1 .7 -0.45 -0.54 -0.7 -0.88 2 5 8 . 13 26 5 .74 1 .1 134.6 98 . 1 136.0 99 . 1 0. 1 0. 1 1.0 1 .0 0.2 0.2 0. 1 0. 1 1 .07 0.09 0.55 0.72 0.77 0.83 NA 0.89 0.75 631.5 631 .9 63 1.4 2 4 4 6 . 8 2 4 3 5 . 6 2449 .2 0 .49 0.77 NA 631.3 2455 .7 -0.98 -0.11 - 0 . 14 -0. 1 0.6 0.40 0.05 NA 0. 0.3 -0.09 - 0 . 10 -0.06 0. 1 0. 0.40 0.53 NA 0.2 0. 135.0 98 . 4 134.4 98 .0 B7. Money and Credit Money: 85. Change in money supply M l 3 102. Change in money supply M23 104. Change in total liquid assets3 105. Money supply M l in 1982 dollars *106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars L,L,L L.C.U L.L.L L.L.L L.L.L do do do Bil dol Velocity of Money: 107. Ratio, GNP to money supply M l 3 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23 C.C.C. C.Lg.C. Ratio Credit 33. 112. 113. *111. 110. Flows: Net change in mortgage debt3 Net change in business loans' Net change in consumer installment credit3 Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3 Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers Credit Difficulties: 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted 4 ) 3 5 do... L.L.L. L.L.L. L.L.L. L.L.L. L.L.L. A.r., bil. dol... do do A.r., percent.. A.r., bil. dol... L.L.L. Percent, EOP 6.362 1.316 NA 9.32 54 . 08 6. 4 625.70 6.032 1.309 NA NA NA 9.42 -2 1.68 37.29 41 . 19 6 0 . 4 0 4 0 . 17 6.2 5.2 9.2 5 4 6 . 9 4 582 .66 6 1 3 . 7 8 2.47 2 .47 6. 128 1.323 NA -2 1.07 NA MA NA 0.012 0. 05 1 0.020 - 0 . 0 0 8 -0.002 NA -69.82 74.83 1.6 NA NA NA 7 1 . 7 8 - 6 5 . 16 1 4 1 . 6 0 63 . 6 5 NA - 1 1 . 1 8 NA 9 .2 10.8 NA -136.94 NA NA NA 58.97 - 5 8 . -20.23 4.0 5 .12 NA 36 NA NA NA Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data Unit Series title and timing classification of Percen change Annual average measure 1986 1987 3d Q 1987 1987 1st Q 1988 Jan. 1988 Feb. 1988 Mar. 1988 Jan. Feb. to Feb. 1988 to Mar. 1988 3d Q to 4th Q 1987 4th Q to 1st Q 1988 M 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con. B7. Money and Credit—Con. Bank Reserves: 93. Free reserves ( i n v e r t e d 4 ) 3 © 94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 © Interest Rates: 119. Federal funds rate3 © 114. Discount rate on new Treasury b i l l s 3 © 116. Yield on new high-grade corporate b o n d s 3 © 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 © 117. Yield on municipal bonds3 © 118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages 3 © 67. Bank rates on short-term business l o a n s 3 © *109. Average prime rate charged by b a n k s 3 © Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding *101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars *95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income3 L.U.U.... Mil. dol do L.Lg.U.... 93 836 241 756 109 753 245 782 40 1,077 2 13 1 ,082 737 396 -830 1 ,752 -524 -686 1 ,567 1 , 356 -136 29 205 295 -0.26 -0.24 -0.73 -0.63 -0.56 -0.66 -0.10 -0.28 6.80 5 .97 9.23 8.14 7 . 32 9.9 1 8.11 8 . 33 6 .66 5 .83 9.69 8.63 7 .64 10.16 8 . 09 8.20 6 .84 6.03 10.14 9.08 7 .93 10.72 8.20 8 .40 6 .92 6 .00 10.37 9 .24 8.20 10 . 7 6 8 .47 8.87 6 .66 5 .76 9 .64 8.6 1 7 .64 1 0 . 10 8.37 8.59 6 . 83 5.90 9 . 81 8.82 7 .69 10.17 6.58 5 .69 9.43 8.41 7 .49 9 . 86 6.58 5 .69 9.68 8.6 1 7 .74 10.28 -0.25 -0.2 1 -0.38 -0.41 -0.20 -0.31 0. 0. 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.42 8.75 8.5 1 8.50 -0.24 -0.01 0.08 -0.03 0.23 0 . 16 0.27 0.04 0.27 0.47 Lg.Lg.Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 57 1 . 8 3 352.36 Lg.Lg.Lg.... Bil. dol 613.02 3 7 8.82 602 . 9 8 373.48 613.02 3 7 9 . 15 NA 379.51 619.26 377 . 3 3 624.56 3 8 3 . 32 NA 377 . 88 0.9 1.6 NA -1.4 1 .7 1.5 351.80 368.59 360.28 3 6 4 . 10 362.59 361.08 366.46 360.23 1.5 -1.7 15.57 15.77 15.91 15.81 NA 15.99 1 6 . 04 NA 1982 = 100 1982-84 = 100. Percent 1982-84 = 100. 1982 = 100 do do do do do 1 14. 1 109 . 6 O.I 109.0 1OO.2 100.0 87 . 7 99 . 1 109.7 101.4 117.5 113.6 0.4 113.5 102 . 8 102 . 6 93. 7 101.5 111.7 103.6 117.9 1 14.4 0.3 114.1 103.7 103.4 96 . 1 102 . 3 112.0 104.4 118.7 115 . 4 0.3 1 14.9 104. 1 104. 1 95 . 2 103.6 112.1 104.3 119.4 116.1 0.3 115.5 104.7 104.5 94. 1 104.4 112.8 104 . 3 115.7 0. 3 115.6 104.5 104.3 93.6 104 . 2 1 12 . 5 104.3 116.0 0.2 115.3 104.6 104.4 94.5 104.2 112.7 103.9 116.5 0.5 115.7 104.9 104.7 94. 1 104.8 113.2 104.6 1977 = 100 169.3 173.5 174.0 175.5 176 . 7 176 . 4 176 . 5 177 . 1 95.0 181.2 100.2 109.5 107.5 94. 0 186.3 99.4 110.6 108.5 93.7 18 7 . 1 99.3 111.3 109.1 93.7 188.6 99.2 111.3 109.2 93.6 NA NA NA NA 93.7 93.6 93.6 119.86 112 . 4 4 7 ,425 3, 369 2 , 709 1 , 347 5,979 120.05 112.85 7 , 199 3 ,233 2,671 1,296 5 ,767 120.57 113.49 7 , 082 3 , 124 2 , 6 15 1 , 342 5 ,670 12 1 . 1 4 114.2 1 6,928 3 , 105 2 , 542 1,282 5,550 12 1 . 1 8 114.13 7 , 046 3,154 2,581 1 ,312 5 ,603 7 8.0 56.2 54 . 7 7 7.9 56 . 3 54 . 9 7 7.9 56.5 55 . 1 7 8.0 56.7 54.9 7 7.9 56.7 56 . 0 A.r., bil. dol do do do do do - 2 0 4 . 7 - 1 5 1 . 4 - J 35 . 8 - 1 6 0 . 2 827 . 4 9 15.7 9 2 3.0 937.6 1 0 3 2 . 0 1 0 6 7 . 1 1 0 5 8 . 8 1097 . 8 56 . 8 44 . 0 46 . 5 37 . 9 6 18.8 6 5 1.1 657.6 663 . 5 607.1 56 1 . 9 625.6 6 11.1 NA NA 109 1 . 9 NA NA 635.4 Mil. dol do do 1977 = 100 Thousands A.r., bil. dol 29 , 9 8 8 3 0 , 8 1 2 1 1 , 998 1 2 , 0 3 2 9 ,099 9 , 199 182 . 0 189. 1 1,597 1 ,585 277.8 295.2 Mil. dol do do do do do 18,052 2 1,071 20,737 2 , 164 2 ,400 2,700 3,907 4,428 4 ,466 30,505 33,825 34,579 2 ,894 3 ,471 4 ,046 5,578 5 ,896 5,705 L.Lg.Lg.... Percent do C,Lg,Lg.... Lg.Lg.Lg.... do C.Lg.Lg.... do do U.Lg.Lg.... do Lg,Lg,Lg.... Lg.Lg.Lg.... do Lg.Lg.Lg.... Lg.Lg.Lg.... do Lg.Lg.Lg.... Percent 1 . 1 NA 0.1 -0.4 NA - 0 . 10 NA 0.3 -0. 1 -0.3 0.1 0. 1 1 .0 0. 0.2 -0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 0 . 7 0.9 0. 0.7 0.4 0.7 -0.9 1 .3 0. 1 -0. 1 0 .6 0.6 0. 0.5 0.6 0.4 - 1 .2 0.8 0.6 0. 0. 1 0.3 0.05 93 94 119 1 14 1 16 115 117 118 6 7 109 66 72 101 95 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity B l . Price Movements 310. 320. 320c. 322. 330. 335. 331. 332. 333. 334. Implicit price deflator for gross national product Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) © . . . . Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3 Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food Producer price index (PPI), all commodities © PPI, industrial commodities © PPI, crude materials for further processing PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components PPI, capital equipment PPI, finished consumer goods 3 1 0 32C 320 322 330 335 331 332 333 334 B2. Wages and Productivity 340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagncultural payrolls 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagncultural payrolls 345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 370. Output per hour, business sector 358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector do do do do do 0.9 0.7 34C -0. 1 0. 0. 0. 8 -0.1 0 . 0 . 1 -0. 1 NA NA NA NA 341 34 5 346 37C 3 5? 0.1 C.2 -1.5 - 2 .6 2 . 1 -6. 1 -1.0 -0.4 -0.3 -2 .0 0.6 -8.5 5 .6 -0.9 0.4 0.6 -1.6 -3.4 -2 . 1 3.5 -1.7 0.5 0.6 -2.2 -0.6 -2 .8 -4.5 -2.1 44 1 442 37 444 445 446 447 0. 3 0. 1 -1.1 -0.3 -0.2 -1.0 0 . 0.2 0.2 0 . 1 0 . 2 -0.2 45 1 452 453 -24.4 1 . 6 3. 7 -8.6 0 . 9 2 .4 NA NA -0.5 t'A NA 1 .6 50C 5 0 502 5 1C 5 1 512 -14.2 -20.5 0.8 0. 1 0. 1 0 . 3 NA NA -9.6 0.4 MA -0.7 517 525 54? 13.1 -7.7 13.1 4 . 7 -15.7 15 . 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA 6 02 60^ 606 612 61/ C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 441. 442. 37. 444. 445. 446. 447. Civilian labor force Civilian employment Number of persons unemployed Number unemployed, males 20 years and over Number unemployed, females 20 years and over Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age Number unemployed, full-time workers Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates: 451 Males 20 years and over3 452. Females 20 years and over3 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age3 Millions do Thousands do do do do Percent do do 117.83 109.60 8 ,237 3,751 3 ,032 1 ,454 6,708 78.1 55.5 54.7 12 1 . 3 5 1 2 0 . 9 0 114.41 114.10 6,938 6,801 3 ,07 1 3 , 089 2,411 2,635 1,232 1,301 5 ,498 5 ,549 7 8.2 56 . 8 54.9 77.9 56.6 53.9 D. Government Activities D l . Receipts and Expenditures 500. 501. 502. 510. 511. 512. Federal Government surplus or deficit3 Federal Government receipts Federal Government expenditures State and local government surplus or deficit3 State and local government receipts State and local government expenditures D2. Defense Indicators 517. 525. 548. 557. 570. 564. Defense Department gross obligations incurred Defense Department prime contract awards Mfrs.' new orders, defense products Industrial production, defense and space equipment Employment, defense products industries Federal Government purchases for national defense 32,850 13,386 9,519 189.2 1,597 299.0 28,186 10,636 9 ,596 189.3 1 , 599 299.8 NA NA 8,677 190. 1 NA 297.7 3 1 , 1 5 7 33 , 2 4 3 7,871 1 1,080 9 , 104 8,590 190.1 190.3 1 ,606 1 ,604 NA NA NA NA NA NA 22 , 3 3 0 2 3 , 5 5 9 2 ,634 2 ,936 NA NA 3 3 , 2 18 35 , 8 1 8 N'A NA NA NA NA NA 8, 336 189.8 NA 6.7 40.8 - 5 .6 0. 1 -0. 1 NA NA -3.0 -0.3 NA 55" 57( 56 l E. U.S. International Transactions E l . Merchandise Trade 602. 604. 606. 612. 614. 616. Exports, excluding military aid shipments © Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of nonelectrical machinery General imports © Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Imports of automobiles and parts 2 3,450 2 ,49 1 5 , 05 0 36,2 1 1 3 ,410 6 ,559 NA NA NA NA NA NA 5 .5 11.5 NA 7 . 8 NA NAI NA NA NA NA NA NA 6H Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data Percent change Unit of Annual average measure 1st Q 1987 4th Q 2dQ 1987 3d Q 1987 2d Q 3d Q to 3d Q 1987 4th Q 4th Q to 1st Q 1987 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con. E2. Goods and Services Movements Except Transfers Under Military Grants 667. Balance on goods and services3 Bil. dol 668. Exports of goods and services ...do.. 669. Imports of goods and services ...do.. 622. Balance on merchandise trade3 ...do.. 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted ...do.. 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted ...do.. 651. Income on U.S. investment abroad ...do.. 652. Income on foreign investment in the United States ...do.. -25 .27 89.86 115.14 -30.54 53.98 84.52 22 . 0 8 15.72 -31.42 93.20 124.62 -36.08 56 .09 92.18 22.05 16.84 -36.80 -33.84 -33.83 -38.27 -40.52 -34.59 10 5.03 93.89 98 .73 100.07 105 .66 115 .66 141.83 127.73 132.56 138.34 146 . 1 8 150.25 -39.80 -38.60 -38.92 -39.74 - 4 0 . 36 -40. 17 62.7 0 57 .02 56.77 5 9.88 65.11 69.06 102 .50 95 .62 95 .69 99 .62 105 .48 109 .2 3 24.94 24 .96 22 .46 29 .66 20.79 22.69 2 1.32 20.88 19 .45 22.40 22 .57 16.30 40 10.3 3607.5 15 ,073 3600.1 2841.1 2542 .2 10,622 4 2 3 5.0 37 13.3 15,368 3699.5 3022 . 1 2645. 1 10,947 4488 . 5 382 1 .0 15,672 3778. 1 3181.7 2677.2 10,980 4288.1 3731.5 15,388 3 7 4 5.8 3061 .6 2656.7 10,956 2967.8 2497 .2 413.7 388.2 982 .9 878. 1 157 1.2 1230.9 2858 .6 248 0.5 -2 .25 5.6 5 .7 -0.62 8.7 5 .9 1 .0 7 .3 5 .93 9.5 0. 19 6. 1 3.6 30.7 0.8 A. National Income and Product Al. GNP and Personal Income A.r., bil. dol.. 200. Gross national product ...do 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars A.r., dollars.. 213. A.r., bil. dol.. Final sales in 1982 dollars 224. Disposable personal income ....do ....do 225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars A.r., dollars.. 4377.7 3772.2 15,525 3724.5 3125 .9 2674.6 11,008 4445 . 1 3795 .3 15 ,588 37 56.3 3130.6 2645 .5 10,865 4524.0 3 8 3 5.9 15,7 15 381 1 .4 3 195.3 2674.7 10,958 4607 .4 4 6 6 0 . 9 3880.8 3 9 0 2 . 6 15 ,859 15 , 9 1 0 3 8 2 0.3 3 8 4 4 . 7 3275 . 0 3 3 2 0 . 2 27 13.8 2 7 3 5 . 4 1 1 , 0901 1 , 1 5 1 1 .8 1. 1 0. 8 1 .5 2 . 1 1 . 1 0.9 1 .8 1 .2 0.9 0.2 2 .5 1 .5 1 .2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.6 1 .4 0.8 0.6 A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures .r., bil. dol. 230. Total do 231. Total in 1982 dollars. 232. Durable goods .do. 233. Durable goods in 1982 dollars. .do. 236. Nondurable goods. .do. 238. Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars. .do. 237. Services .do do 239. Services in 1982 dollars 2629.4 2352.6 2450.5 368.7 402 .4 352.7 3 8 3.5 9 13.1 939.4 849 . 5 877 .2 1 347 . 5 1458.0 1150.4 1189.8 2893.8 2475 .9 419.8 396 . 1 399 . 0 375.9 946 . 3 969.9 880.3 883.2 1492 . 4 1527 .7 1 2 0 1 . 1 12 16.9 2943 . 7 3011. 2487 .5 2 5 2 0 . 409 . 0 436.8 385 .4 406.9 982 . 1 986 .4 879.0 875.7 1552 .6 1588. 1 1223. 1 1238. 1 3022 .6 2504.6 413.0 384.5 993. 1 874.6 16 16.5 1245.6 3 06 8.7 2528.2 425 .7 396 .2 993.9 874.2 1649.0 1257.7 2 .3 1 .3 6 .8 5 .6 0.4 -0.4 2 .3 1 .2 0.4 -0.6 1 .5 0.9 3. 1 3.0 0. 1 0 2 .0 1 .0 A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment 240. Total 241. Total in 1982 dollars ...do.. 242. Fixed investment ...do.. 243. Fixed investment in 1982 dollars 245. Change in business inventories3 ..do... 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3 ..do... 641.6 636. 1 631.6 628. 7 10.0 7 .4 671.0 654.0 655 .2 640.2 15.7 13.8 717.5 6 8 7.6 67 1.5 644. 7 46 . 1 42.9 660.2 63 1.0 666.6 645 .4 -6 .4 -14.4 699. 67 1 . 648. 702 .6 673.7 662.3 634.7 40. 3 39 .0 707 .4 681 .9 684.5 657.3 22 .9 24 .6 760.2 723.1 690. 8 662.6 69.4 60.5 761 .9 738.4 704.9 680.5 57 .0 57.9 818.6 726.9 353.9 324 .2 464.7 402 . 7 869.7 754.5 366 . 2 332 .5 503.5 422 . 1 922.8 771.7 379.4 336.0 543.4 435.8 886. 3 77 1.8 368.6 344.6 517.7 427 . 1 896 .2 759 .6 366.9 327.3 529 .3 432 .3 917.1 766 . 7 379.6 332 .6 537 .6 434. 1 929.0 77 1.7 3 8 2.1 336.3 546. 9 435 .4 9 48.8 788.9 388.9 347.6 559.9 441 .3 945.6 76 8.3 376 .8 325 .3 568.9 442 .9 1 . 0.7 0.7 1. 1 1 .7 0.3 -123.7 -124.3 -115.4 -138.4 -135.8 -132 .2 439.2 458. 1 470.6 437 . 1 453.5 464.6 562.9 582.4 586.0 575 .6 589 .3 596.8 -5 .3 -5 .7 5 .5 5 .5 5 .3 5. -0.6 2 .6 4.3 3.8 3 .5 2 .4 3229.9 3422 .0 3636 . 0 347 1 .0 3548.3 3593.3 3659.0 3743 . 5 MA 2 3 7 0 . 8 2504.9 2647 .6 2 5 5 2 . 0 2589 2623.4 2663.5 27 13.5 2762 .4 297.8 257 . 289 .8 327.4 320.9 323. 1 322 .7 342 336.7 9 .0 16.7 18.4 19. 3 20.0 18.9 17 .3 20.9 2 1.1 277 .6 284.4 304 .7 281.1 294 .0 296 . 8 314.9 313.0 NA 315.3 326 . 1 337.1 321.7 323.6 331.1 353.3 3 5 6.2 340.6 1 .8 1 .5 -0.1 -8.5 6.1 2 .9 2 .3 I . 6.2 20.8 -0.6 3.7 NA 1 .8 -1 .8 1 .0 NA 0.8 531.3 532.0 565.2 515.3 554 .3 537.2 549 .2 544.4 553.6 545.3 127 . 1 130.6 119.0 109.0 138.4 -132.9 -147.8 -107 .4 -13 8. 1 -129.5 4.5 4. 3 3.7 3 .6 4.4 2 .4 -4. -0. -0.2 6.5 0.5 75.3 -33.0 2 .0 NA NA -1 .7 NA -0.2 0.7 1.2 3.4 3.6 -17.4 -14.4 7 .5 6 .0 0.9 0.8 46 .5 35 .9 0.2 2. 1 2 .0 2 .7 -12.4 -2.6 A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services 260. Total ..do.. 261. Total in 1982 dollars ..do.. 262. Federal Government ..do.. 263. ...do.. Federal Government in 1982 dollars 266. State and local government ..do.. 267. State and local government in 1982 dollars ...do.. 2. 1 2 .2 1 .8 3.4 2 .4 1 .4 -0, -2 , -3, A5. Foreign Trade 250. Net exports of goods and services3 ...do.. 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3 ...do.. 252. Exports of goods and services 256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 253. Imports of goods and services 257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars -79.2 -105 .5 -119.6 -116.9 -112.2 -118.4 - 108.2 -145.8 -135.5 -151.8 -135.2 -132.7 369.9 427 .8 383. 3 416.5 376 .2 397.3 3 6 5.3 377 .4 425 .8 3 88.3 397 414.5 449 .2 547 .4 5 0 0.2 509 534.8 481.7 473.6 547 .2 540 . 1 533.0 5 2 3.2 561.3 8.9 3 .6 2 .7 2 .4 0.6 1 .3 A6. National Income and Its Components 220. National income ..do.. 280. Compensation of employees ..do.. 282. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAd] ..do.. 284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj ..do.. 286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj . ..do.. 288. Net interest ..do.. A7. Saving 290. Gross saving ..do.. 295. Business saving ...do.. 292. Personal saving ...do.. 298. Government surplus or deficit3 ...do.. 293. Personal saving rate3 (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in figures published by the source agencies are used if available. Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A, seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAd), capital consumption adjustment. : The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident: Lg, lagging; U, unclassified. 595 .9 NA 562 .6 NA 155.7 153.1 NA -89.3 -122 .3 4.8 4.6 2 .8 559. 3 559 .8 For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by @ , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk 55 1.3 546 . 7 93.2 -88.6 3. 0 1 Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. s End-of-penod series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. 'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of the span. CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Chart A l . Composite Indexes July Ma\ P Ab? ApP 1 T ApP ^ T Dec Nov. P T P V.jr T Jan 'ij Iv P ! !ui> P Nov T index: 1967-1001 910. Index of eleven leading indicators1 (series 1, 5, 8,19, 20, 29, 12, 36, 99,106, 111) 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 4 1 , 4 7 , 5 1 , 5 p ^ 7_ n , . ,<,:, u ,.?•>, "3 . -6 -2 930. Index of six laggin|||tdicator$ f£ (series 62, 77, 9 1 ^ , 101,109) [c-i >4 C 1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. 10 APRIL 1988 I CYCLICAL INDICATORS A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued Aug. Apr. P T Apr Feb. P T Dec. New P ! Nov. Mar Jan. July July Nov. P T P I P T 120-1 11010090- 140-i 130120 1101009080- 160150140130 1201101009080- 70- 1401 130 120110 100 90 1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates, Current data for these series are shown on page 60. APRIL 1988 J CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Dec. Nov. Apr. Feb. P P T T Nov. Mar. P T Jan. Juiy Juiy P T P Nov T 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours) initial claims for unemployment insurance, State rers'new orders in 1982 dollarsipsumef goodi 32}j§|ndor performance, percent of . Contracts and orders for plant and i l l ••;••• i i 11 r lip 1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, and 66. 12 APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued July May Aug. Apr. Apr. Fee Dec, Nov. P T Nov. Mar. P T Jan. July July Nov P T P T 29. New private housing units authorized by local trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. i l l . Change in business and consumer 1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 1 This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 71, and 72. ItCII APRIL 1988 13 CYCLICAL INDICATORS IA I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A3. Coincident Index Components DP. N / PI P 41. Employees on nonagricuttural payrolls (millions) 300028002600 2400- 51. Personal income fcis transfer payments in 1982 dollars (ann, rate, bit dol.) : 220020001800- 150140130120- 47. Industrial prodictionitodex: 1977 — f t p 110 - ^f 10090- iw •$£<\ 500450 - ~ * ~ 400 - 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars 1 | 350- 300- 250- ~, -^ 200- *'-"?& * 150 - 1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 S3 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65. 14 APRIL 1988 Kill CYCLICAL INDICATORS A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A4. Lagging Index Components July May P T Aug.Air P 7 Dec, Nov. Apr. Feb. P P I T Nov. Mar. P Jan.Juiy July p x P T 91. Average duration of u I 0 Iff I 1012 • 14- ^^L 16182022i.81716- m l.h • 1.4 • Labor cost jier K J # | I ^ 110-| 100 9590 - 19 1 ib 131197« 450 400350 300 250- 200 - 150 J ZL ••• : • i i ' IIP W: If BSk- 1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73. ItCII APRIL 1988 15 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment Dec. Nov. P T Nov an. July P T Mar. P T . i^/Vs P •i l l i [Marginal Employ merit Adjustments] Nov T July I H Average weekly N f | | f production or nonsupervisory vf|er$, ;!|ji|manulacturing (h<i||f||§ |LfL,L| ' U L, • S^S T|lW Mem J/ 1 S|| •; l i f t i iifiti s SS§i' . ^ . •• j •: t. M ^*Str . • .". '••• r .|^ps j fplf 21. Avcgjjjweekly overtime iK^^lprockiction or nonsupervisory t§ker$,WmB Si ^ ^ ^ 1 §f"fin8 (hours) » |nsforunemployment insurant! newspapers (index: 1 9 6 7 = | p ) 7T7^ HI 7 ^ fifflf 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 61. 16 APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued Dec. Nov Nov. Mar. P T P T Jan. July P T July P Nov T 200 190- 180- 170- 160- 150 J 115110105100- 95- 42. Persons eneaeed in 90858075 - 70- 65- 272625242322- 626160595857565554- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62. Kill APRIL 1988 17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d Chart B l . Employment and U n e m p l o y m e n t — C o n t i n u e d 1 Comprehensive Unemployment | 37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale) |Ug,U 43. UnempJoym&rtrate (percent—inverted scale) 9- 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale) / t 91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale) 3 ft* 44. Unemployn»nt rate, persons u n e m p l ^ 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted:^) 1.962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 62. 18 APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDfCAVOPS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income 4400- | Comprehensive Output and income [ 4000 3600 - 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bit. dol.) 32m- 2800 2600 - 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars {ann. rate, i ^ ^ | f F F F ] """""*— 24013 ??00 2000 1800 1600 - W^** i 1400 J 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and constitution (ann. rate, bit d<^.) ' C |Q r Q | >?%«f 460 - 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 63. KCII APRIL 1988 19 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued Nov. Dec. Nov. F 1 Mar Ian. July P 1 Julv P Nov. 1 [-.industrial Production [ 47. fcrtistrial production (Mm 1977=100) 73. Industrial production, durable manufactures (index: 1 9 7 7 - 1 0 0 ) 74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures 1800 1700 16001500 - v: 49. %$m of goods output b l i p dollars, Q f % . rate, bil. dol.) 14001300 120011001000900800- 1 Capacity Utilization] 82. Capacity utili?^teiate, manufacturing (percent) ft,C,U 90 i 60 84. Capacity utilii#»iite, materials (percent) | L^C J 90 T 7060 J 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64. 20 APRIL 1988 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Dec. Nov. P 1" Nov. SS , 1 Orders and Deliveries] Jan. July PI Mar P T liHi . : .. Suiy P Nov. T . 1§ i i | j l Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods 6. Manufacturers new durable goods i 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries ••••.•• ^ i j j i 'iffl&m. : -• r — 1 . •" SfeaaSfefe &.• : •. -.--i .,:-m^ Splp z wv-.:....: • / 'm. --mmm ,n-;.:£, 220180 - 140- 100- i-f i:|iii;| 60- /percent of conpanies lyeriBS (percent) 32. Vendor IMWSI& /-Ml S • I A/ iiall/ Igg 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 SI81 71 72 73 74 75 100- A 75- , ^^^ 50- 25- 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 64. IICII APRIL 1988 21 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B l CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued Nov iu;y 550- | Consumption and Trade | 500 - §7. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) 450400350300 250 200- 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (bil. dol.) [cxcl X 150- \ 75. Industrial production, consumer goods (index: If77^= 100) 140 120- 59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (bit. dot) 10080- 60- -—' 54. Sales of retail stores in eurrent dollars (bil. dot) ^ r ^ 160- I\ A 140120100- / ^^r+*^***^ *~^~~*^ 55. Personal con^i!#tion expenditures, automobiles, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) U,CtC[ r**\/sA fArf F j T ^ 80- \ - 60- • ••••• 58. Index of consumer sentiment (1st Q 1966=100) 110 — 10090- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 30 81 82 83 84 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 65. 22 APRIL 1988 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment Dec. • 1 Formation of Business Ifttsipises j Nov. Nov. Mar. P T jan P July 7 160- . ^ |§J§ 140 - 120100- 111 M business index: 1967-100) M J 70605040- 30 - 4540- Business Investment Commitments 35- :RU 3025- 20- 15- 10. Contracts and orders for In current d d t W 40353025- 20- 15- 1 0 -J 1101009080706050- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66. ItCII APRIL 1988 23 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued \kc Nov War T I P Jan. July P T July P [Business Investment Commitments—Co^).. 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations, Q (bil. dol.) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing ^te Q (bil. dol.) 100. Expenditures m 1982 dollars for new plant and equipment, Q ( a n n . y j ^ | (krf.) [ c L ^ I Business Investment Expenditures) 61. Expenditures in current dollars for new plant and equipment, ^ f n n . rate, bil. dol.) 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (ann. rate, bil. <K}': [cJ7 76: Industrial production, business equipment i : 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1977=100) 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67. 24 APRIL 1988 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T Jan. July P T iuiy Nov. P T 550-1 500450400350300250- 200- 150- 100 J ^ r i | i l l r # i i | | ^ M rpisfmfenti 2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.8- 200 180160140120100- , 80- 60- 240220200180 160140120100 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. ItCII APRIL 1988 25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d Chart B 5 . Inventories a n d Inventory I n v e s t m e n t | Inventory Investment] 30. Change in business i n v i i i t e in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rat<vSil. d o l f />./; 36. Change in manufacturing arid trade inventories on hand and on r in 19S2 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.; moving avg.-4-term1) in manufactur{#;li*^rade inventories 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 68. 26 APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued Dec. P Jan. .iu!y July F T P Nov i Nov. T [ Inventories on Hand and on Order im andl^lfwentories in 1982ddlaretbWSol.) U H Manufacturing and trade inventories 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 68. ItCII APRIL 1988 27 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits , 98. Change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermediate materials (percent; MCD.moving avg.~&i$m) [ Sensitive Commodity Prices | S9. Change in sensitive materials prices jftffi&nt; moving avg.—4-term1) 23. Spot market prk$% raw industrial mater i j ^ | i y l e x : 1967=100) 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q 16. Corporate profits afto^fexin £|»ripRloliars, Q (aim. rate,fail,doi.) f p X l ^ . ^ ~r£z"f£r 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. 2 Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 69. 28 APRIL 1988 I CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Jan. July P T July Nov. P T [Profitss$ fttflt 280240200160120- 80- 40 J 141210864- 753- 102100989694500400- 300- 200- 100- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70. ItCII APRIL 1988 29 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued ]Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share! 63. Unit labor H ^ business sector, Q (index; ltH-100) 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations, Q (dollars) \IM fijWft $2. Labor cost per Sijphfutput, manufacturing :^&i 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 70. 30 APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit 'my i;jiy Nov. F T p T Jan, 105. Money simply Ml in 1982 dollars (bit dol.) . '-lift o s s n a t r o n a •duct to money supi ii .;:••. : ; 1 | H a i i •••'•••• • . • - • : ••'•• **S - • IU •J-- ; v : i l :•• r: •• >: • - • • • 5 | -: 7.5 7.06.5« 6.05.55.01.50 1.451.401.351.301.251.20- IS 8 : •*-•• 1 ! 8Spl M2 (ratio). , 1962 63 •• • 64 • 65 • 66 67 . • 68 69 , | | f l 70 71 ffffll 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 . licit APRIL 1988 31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Dec Nov. P T Credit Flows Jan. July Nov P P I July P Nov. T 33. Nf|§|nge in mortgage ^ § | byfinancialinstitutions J§ i insurance c o m p a i ^ ^ i i . rate, bii. doi.) —— .StSSi §|§if (ann. rate, oil. doi.; i»-*«•»-«» [in credit (ann. rate, bil. doi.; m * kA ra and consumer! credt jbtstanding (ann. rate, percen 110. Funds raised by private 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72. 32 APRIL 1988 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Dec Nov. Nov Mar. P T P T Jan. July P I July P Nov. T bities of business ialfures 100- 200- 300400- 600- 8001000- [12J 15002000300040005000- 39. Percent of consumer 6000- 1.61.82.02.2- Ml 2.42.62.8-7- -5-4-3- ?- nr -10+ 1- 765- «re F e d i i l Reserve (b»J. 43210- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 72. APRIL 1988 33 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d Chart B7. Money and C r e d i t — C o n t i n u e d 1 Interest Rates] 114. Discount rate on (percent^ |c, US. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds V; (percent) ] L g , l | j f X US. Yield on long-term Treasury binds Secondary market yieli|^FHA mortgages (percent) j .Yield on municinal bonds. 20-bond nim&m 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73. 34 APRIL 1988 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and C r e d i t — C o n t i n u e d nterest Rates—Con. . Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) loans, 0 (percent) |OuMaiidingD§|t outstanding in 1982 dollars "• v ...•••••>• installment c r e c i ^ i t i i n g (bit do!.) credit outstanding to personal income 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 73. ItCII APRIL 1988 35 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes Nov. P P T F T 950. El|j||leacfing indicator c ^ p t s 1 (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. < § | — 4 § Percent rising 100 T 50- |i>mponent$(6-fno 100 T 50- oneats (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. spanll~) |1 9 50- 961. ft*«a?e weekly hours of acturing inckKtriel ion or nonsupervisory work span—, 1-mo. span—4 50- 50- rai payrolls, 172-136 i yees on private span—, 1 100-1 50- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index. Current data for these series are shown on page 74. 36 APRIL 1988 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued in. July P T July N o v . P T 100- 50- 0- 80706050403020- 100- 50- 0- 100- 50- 0- 100- m JUflUffl 50- 9080706050401962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 75. ItCII APRIL 1988 37 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C | DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued P T R Actual Anticipated | Percent rising] Actual Anticipated I Percent risgig | 970. Expenditures for new plant and eminent, piiitrtes (1-Q span) (a) Actual expenditures 974. Number of employees, manufactunng and trade (4-Q span)1 70-f f 6050- 40-* 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 60- ;^ • ^>i •* 50- 40- 971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span) p/ 1 976. Selling pnc es, \ • • ••• • jf*** maniifacturing (4-Q span)1 90- 100-. 80- 9080- 70. • • • . _A| 60- • 7060- 50- ; ( "&**1 972. Net pr QH$, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span) 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span) 1 100- •••• •••• •*•• 90- 70- 80- 60- 70- 50- 60- 978. Selling prices, retaiHrade (4-Q span) 1976 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 1988 1976 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 1988 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 38 APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C3. Rates of Change P 1-month spans —— 3-month spans — Oc. Composite index of six lagging indicators 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index— Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published. Walues of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index. ItCII APRIL 1988 39 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income Dec Nov. LU 200. Gross raiiiiai product in curreif$$ats, Q (arm. rate, bil. doL) 223. Personal income in curifiHollars (arm. rate, ML dol.) V 224. Disposable personal income in current ^ f e (arm. rate, ML dol.) 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q 213. Final sates in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. doL);;:' •^ % -:*u= - ^*~~* UILW "' ^ ^- • • • •»!»»' 225. Disposable f sonal^ t f i ^ i n 1982 dollars, Q ( #i. rate|| ill*) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.) rer capita disposable personal income i n } 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, 1 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80. 40 APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures Ian July Juiy Nov. rate, billion dollars (current)] Personal consumption expenditures— 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 m 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 320030002800260024002200200018001600- 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81. BCII APRIL 1988 41 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND P R O D U C T — C o n t i n u e d Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment Mr P <dv JJU I N. T P Gross private domestic investment— j f t t n u a l rate,faiondebars (1982)1 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. 42 APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services Nov. Mar Jan. July P July Nov. T P I 80 81 Government purchases of goods and 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. l » l J ) APRIL 1988 43 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A5. Foreign Trade p;if ;gtpSp. 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. 44 APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued C h a r t A 6 . National I n c o m e and Its C o m p o n e n t s Dec. Nov P T Jan, July P Juiy Nov. T P T 80 81 Rental income of persons consumption adjustment, 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. APRIL 1988 45 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A7. Saving Annual rate, billion dollars (current) j 298. Government surplus or deficit, Q 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83. 46 APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income 65- goods .and services, Q 151 265. Federt&ier^^ 10- 248. Nonresidential fixed investme 0III! 247. C h p i i i ^ ss-wm Met exports of goods and serfjjes, Q I f * il^rcent of ifaiionil 70- 65 Corporate and capital J tax with inventory valuation m 10- 283. ^^s^i^i^^g^^^ and capital consumption adjustments, Q 289, Net interest, Q 285. Rental fnedie• 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. APRIL 1988 47 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Chart B l . Price Movements Jan. July P T sip-. Hi '':•:• U S 310, Implicit | July P Jan. July P T Nov. T mm Ihcte-1982-10 01 mWmm .^^S - July P Nov. I 310c. hnpiirit prir. H^tgrfarj i l l JWcwt change at annual rate I national product: H O st P*^-— :P 311FHedgross i n 1976 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 1988 1976 77 78 79 80 • I B 81 f g f • • • • • v : •••• • - ; • • ; • : - • • • • • 82 83 84 85 86 87 1988 Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86. 48 APRIL 1988 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 81 82 hourly earnings of ate nonagricultural payrol Average hourly compe wfimti tasiiiss 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88. ItCII APRIL 1988 49 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued ' a^es on '* Change in average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private aonagricuteiraE payrolls1— ' ercen g ' & 340c. Current-dollar earnings nru htfcto* * ... A A ,, + 5- 1-month spans2 V 6-month spans (ann. rate) 341c. Real earnings -5- -10 J Change in average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q— 345c. Current-dollar compensation t , 4-quarter spans ——1-quarter spans (ann. rate) Negotiated wage and benefit decisions— 348. Average first-year changes, Q (ann. rate) 349. Average changes over life of 1 Index: 1977 = 1001 120- ! Productivity | @ 110- 358. Output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector, 0 . .^a, ... v^*""'" 100- ^***i 90- ^—& ^*'"^^ —^370. Output per hou^ ^persons, business s e c t o r ^ - 80- 1 Percent change] 370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q , — 1-quarter spas (ana, *nfc> + 10n - 5- 1962 63 64 65 68 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88. 50 APRIL 1988 I OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force a n d Major C o m p o n e n t s 441. Civilian labor force (millions) 442. Civilian employment (millions) Civilian labor force participation rates f p e n t ) - - 45^ ^ $ 2Q years and over 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age 452. Females 20 years and over Number unemployed (millions)— 37. Persons unemployed 445. Females 20 years arw over 446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age 447. Number gpeftiptoyed, full-time workers (miWyis) . lumber of persons enjoyed p^t %m for economic reasons (millions) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 ?4 75 76 77 ''8 7C i BO 85 8V 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 89. APRIL 1988 51 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES £) GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures Nov p i ian Ma- P P T iulv I I'JIV P Nov T | Annual rate, billion dollars (current)] 502. Federal Government expenditures, Q 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. 52 APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I£ ) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators Dec. P Nov. T Nov. Mar. P T Jan July P T July Nov. P T 40353025- 20- 15- 22 T 201816141210- 240-i 220200180160140120100- 141210- 6- 4- 2 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 J 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. IICID APRIL 1988 53 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Dcr. Nov. H T J a n . iiiiy p i July p Nov. T 220-1 |Intermediate and final Measures of Defpse Activity] 200180160- 557. Industrial prodiction, defense and space equipment (index: 14012010042- "V 38- 2 3430- **— ^y 26- 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense pro 22- 18- 14- 180160140120100- 603430^ 262218- 5S0. Defense Department net outlays, assistance (biL dol.) 10- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 . 54 APRIL 1988 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Dec. P • ;r : ! , W : •:•. :•, .:: , .../.- ;.; :;. ; ;. Nov Nov T Mar P . : | j J S j ,:;:••. ' T ' 1 1 1 1 1 1 llntermeiatrafld final:/;MeasMrfs: ofrp^^^p Activity—COT\;-|. | 2.0-j 1.81.6y ^ 1.4 - 1.21.0- 3.53.0- W: 2.5- 2.0- 1.5- 1.0- 400 350300250- 200- 150- 100 - J 50 109- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 . l»fj) APRIL 1988 55 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Chart E l . Merchandise Trade Dec. Nov. P Nov. T Mar. P Jan. July July P T P T Nov. T JiiSi in lim Z/mBml 604. Exports of domestic (bildol) ] Exports of nonelectrical n^Mnery 12 614. Imports of pe products (bil. 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 92. 56 APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES J] I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements Jan. July P T July Nov. P T 750 650550450- {^^ 350- 250- 150- J 50 650550450- 350- 250 - 150- 50140 - 100- 80- 60- 40- 20- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 93. ItCII APRIL 1988 57 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart Fl. Industrial Production Nov Jan. July P T Industrial production— 1976 77 78 79 80 ; 1977=1001 •mm [index: 1977=100] Industrial production— 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 1988 1976 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 1988 Current data for these series are shown on page 94. 58 APRIL 1988 licit OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Chart F2. Consumer Prices Chart F3. Stock Prices Jan. Julv P T July Nov. P T [ Percent jrfiange at annual rate | 100 -J 1976 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 1988 1976 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 1988 Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96. BCII APRIL 1988 59 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS [ Q Year and month 910. Index of eleven leading indicators (series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111)1 (1967 = 100) 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 41,47,51,57) (1967=100) 930. Index of six lagging indicators (series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (1967 = 100) COMPOSITE INDEXES 940. Ratio, Leading indicator subgroups coincident index to lagging index2 914. Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20, 29)2 (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8, 32, 36, 99)2 (1967 = 100) 916. Profitability (series 19, 26, 80) 917. Money and financial flows (series 104, 106, 111) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) 3 C) 1986 January February March 174.1 175.0 176.4 162.9 163.4 162.9 140.5 141.1 142.3 115.9 115.8 114.5 108.9 110.2 109.9 103.3 103.3 103.5 117.3 119.0 119.8 142.2 140.3 140.0 April May June 178.1 178.5 178.3 165.6 164.3 163.7 140.5 141.4 141.6 117.9 116.2 115.6 110.4 109.5 109.6 103.8 103.5 103.0 119.9 119.7 120.4 140.3 142.4 142.6 July August September 179.9 180.3 179.9 164.4 164.8 165.8 141.8 142.2 141.6 115.9 115.9 117.1 109.8 108.8 108.9 103.3 102.9 102.8 120.0 120.4 118.9 144.9 145.6 145.5 October November December 181.2 182.7 186.7 165.4 165.8 167.4 143.7 143.4 142.4 115.1 115.6 117.6 108.4 108.6 111.0 102.8 103.6 104.9 117.8 117.4 117.9 147.3 146.8 H>149.2 185.5 186.0 187.6 165.6 168.2 168.0 144.6 142.1 141.3 114.5 118.4 118.9 108.9 (NA) 104.4 104.6 105.3 119.3 120.8 121.5 148.9 147.0 145.4 April May June rl87.6 rl88.7 190.7 168.0 167.6 168.0 141.8 rl42.0 rl42.6 118.5 rll8.0 rll7.8 rlO5.3 106.0 rlO6.7 121.3 121.3 122.9 rl44.5 144.1 rl45.8 July August September rl91.1 rl92.0 rl92.4 169.4 170.0 170.1 rl41.9 rl4i.6 rl43.1 rll9.4 rl20.1 rll8.9 rlO7.1 106.4 106.6 124.2 [H)126.2 125.3 144.6 rl44.3 ri45.6 October November December rl92.4 rl90.0 rl90.6 172.5 172.0 rl73.4 rl42.5 rl43.3 rl43.5 rl21.1 rl20.0 rl20.8 106.9 107.0 rlO7.5 rl22.7 rl20.0 (NA) 147.0 rl46.7 rl46.5 rl89.2 191.7 [H>M9 3.3 rl73.0 174.0 0) 174.5 rl43.6 144.3 [H)6144.9 rl2O.5 rl2O.6 pl20.4 rlO6.8 rlO6.5 plO6.9 1987 January February March 1988 January February March 5 rl44.6 pl48.1 (NA) April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [ H ) ; for series that move counter to movement: in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [R). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the bad of this issue. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11. 1 Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index. The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 940 (130.0) in January 1984, series 914 (111.5) in February 1984, and series 915 (107.9) in April 1984. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the March 1987 issue. ^Excludes series 5 6 36 and 111, for which data are not available. Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available. 2 60 APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q Minor Economic Process Marginal Employment Adjustments Timing Class Year and month EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT L, C, L L, L, L 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (Hours) Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies L, CTL L, Lg, U 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (Hours) (Thous.) 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (Ratio) U.C.C L, Lg, U 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (1967 = 100) 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (Ann. rate, bil. hours) 1986 January February March 40.8 40.6 40.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 375 384 393 0.519 0.484 0.486 137 137 136 184.62 184.05 134.41 April May June 40.7 40.7 40.6 3.4 3.5 3.4 374 378 378 0.487 0.476 0.504 137 135 143 184.84 184.90 184.64 July August September 40.6 40.8 40.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 370 379 369 0.492 0.506 0.502 137 138 140 184.97 185.55 185.84 October November December 40.7 40.8 40.8 3.5 3.5 3.6 343 342 356 0.503 0.518 0.518 139 143 138 186.20 186.86 186.87 January February March 40.9 41.1 40.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 359 361 341 0.516 0.528 0.569 138 140 149 187.64 188.94 188.71 April May June 40.6 41.0 41.0 3.5 3.8 3.7 324 326 327 0.591 0.593 0.623 150 151 153 187.72 189.69 189.41 July August September 41.0 41.0 40.6 3.8 3.8 3.6 327 297 286 0.636 0.652 0.667 155 159 159 189.97 190.78 187.57 October November December 0)41.3 41.2 41.0 0)4.0 3.9 3.8 0)284 293 312 0.672 0.680 0.661 162 0>162 155 192.24 192.40 192.63 r41.2 r41.0 p40.9 3.9 r3.7 p3.7 351 321 304 0)pO.696 153 156 pl59 0)rl94.57 pl94.01 1987 1988 January February March 0.646 0.669 rl93.00 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17. Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. x APRIL 1988 61 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q j Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Employment—Continued Timing Class Year and month EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued U, C, C 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (Thous.) C, C, C 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (Thous.) L, C, U 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (Thous.) Comprehensive Unemployment U, Lg, U 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (Percent) L, Lg, U 37. Number of persons unemployed L, Lg, U L, Lg, U 43. Unemployment rate 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programsx (Percent) (Percent) (Thous.) Lg, Lg, Lg 91. Average duration of unemployment (Weeks) Lg, Lg, Lg 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Percent) 1986 January February March 105,597 105,427 105,640 98,776 98,914 99,013 24,821 24,768 24,711 59.87 59.61 59.74 7,847 8,427 8,330 6.7 7.2 7.1 2.8 2.8 2.8 15.0 15.4 14.6 1.8 2.0 1.9 April May June 105,793 105,938 106,495 99,252 99,389 99,323 24,770 24,708 24,628 59.74 59.73 60.02 8,373 8,444 8,441 7.1 7.2 7.1 2.8 2.8 2.8 14.6 14.7 15.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 July August September 106,710 106,929 106,883 99,601 99,772 100,039 24,628 24,639 24,620 60.05 60.10 60.05 8,278 8,115 8,298 7.0 6.9 7.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 15.2 15.5 15.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 October November December 107,052 107,224 107,504 100,209 100,415 100,567 24,611 24,630 24,630 60.07 60.15 60.20 8,230 8,214 7,919 6.9 6.9 6.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 15.2 15.0 15.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 January February March 107,840 108,119 108,218 100,919 101,150 101,329 24,708 24,743 24,749 60.30 60.43 60.43 7,964 7,886 7,791 6.7 6.6 6.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 15.0 14.8 14.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 April May June 108,556 109,065 109,108 101,598 101,708 101,818 24,759 24,752 24,761 60.57 60.79 60.72 7,557 7,573 7,308 6.3 6.3 6.1 2.5 2.4 2.4 14.8 14.8 14.7 1.7 1.7 1 .7 July August September 109,427 109,907 109,688 102,126 102,275 102,434 24,850 24,886 24,917 60.84 61.02 60.87 7,251 7,256 7,091 6.0 6.0 5.9 2.3 2.3 2 2 14.2 14.3 14.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 October November December 109,961 110,332 110,529 102,983 103,285 103,612 25,064 25,169 25,259 61.00 61.11 61.19 7,177 7,090 6,978 6.0 5.9 5.8 2.1 2.1 14.1 14.0 14.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 110,836 E>111,182 110,899 rlO3,827 r25,205 r25,342 E>p25,426 61.33 7,046 5.8 14.4 [H>61.44 61.23 6,938 5.7 E>5.6 1.4 1.4 1987 E)2.1 1988 January February March rlO4,344 [H)pl04,606 H)6,801 2.3 2.3 2.2 14.4 E>13.7 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18. 1 I)ata exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 62 APRIL 1988 H>1.4 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS PRODUCTION AND INCOME Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month Industrial Production Comprehensive Output and Income C, C, C 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars C, C, C Personal income 223. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 52. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C, C, C 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C C, C 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction C, C, C 47. Index of industrial production C, C, C 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures C L, L 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (1977 = 100) (1977 = 100) (1977 = 100) C, C, C 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1986 January February March 3,698.8 3,444.4 3,463.8 3,482.1 3,021.4 3,051.8 3,073.3 2,576.6 2,604.2 2,622.7 540.1 539.2 542.8 126.4 125.5 123.9 129.8 128.9 127.4 128.6 128.2 127.3 1,589.5 April May June 3,704^7 3,525.8 3,525.9 3,528.1 3,111.9 3,103.8 3,094.8 2,660.2 2,650.4 2,641.8 544.5 544.1 539.7 124.7 124.3 124.1 128.5 127.7 126.9 128.9 129.7 130.2 1,594.4 July August September 3,718.0 3,540.3 3,552.9 3,567.5 3,102.8 3,103.0 3,104.9 2,642.4 2,647.4 2,648.8 540.3 542.0 540.0 124.8 124.9 124.5 128.1 127.9 128.4 130.6 131.1 130.3 1,593*7 October November December 3,731.5 3,577.5 3,590.3 3,613.0 3,108.2 3,116.6 3,130.8 2,651.5 2,659.7 2,673.3 |H> 5 4 5 . 1 541.6 540.3 125.3 125.7 126.8 128.6 129.0 129.7 131.2 131.7 133.4 1,602.6 January February March 3,772.2 3,631.5 3,671.2 3,683.4 3,117.2 3,143.2 3,137.5 2,660.3 2,685.5 2,682.4 540.0 538.7 537.6 126.2 127.1 127.4 129.3 130.8 131.5 132.7 132.9 133.7 1,626.0 April May June 3,795.3 3,701.9 3,708.5 3,715.3 3,139.9 3,132.2 3,127.4 2,684.1 2,671.5 2,671.4 534.1 535.0 534.1 127.4 128.2 129.1 130.9 131.4 132.0 134.6 135.7 136.9 1,638.2 July August September 3,835.9 3,739.2 3,760.6 3,783.2 3,144.8 3,149.6 3,150.0 2,686.3 2,693.0 2,694.6 532.8 535.3 536.7 130.6 131.2 131.0 133.5 133.8 133.7 138.5 138.8 138.6 1,666.8 October November December 3,880.8 3,854.4 3,839.8 3,869.1 3,198.7 3,178.6 3,205.6 2,741.1 2,722.7 2,748.4 539.3 541.4 541.5 132.5 133.2 rl33.9 136.8 136.7 rl37.3 138.1 139.6 rl41.3 r3,872.5 r3,894.7 [H>p3,924.3 r3,195.1 r3,213.4 E>p3,221.9 r2,728.7 r2,744.6 H>p2,751.0 r540.2 r541.2 p544.7 rl34.4 134.4 [H>pl34.6 rl37.7 137.9 [H>pl38.3 rl41.9 rl41.8 [H>pl41.9 1987 1,689.*7 1988 January February March [H>p3,902.6 B)pl,708.9 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40. APRIL 1988 63 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued • MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS • PRODUCTION AND 1 * 1 CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES INCOME—Continued Minor Economic Capacity Utilization Process Timing Class L, C, U 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing Orders and Deliveries L, C, U 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials Year L, L, L Manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 6. Current dollars and L, L, L 7. Constant (1982) dollars month (Percent) (Percent) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) L, L, L L, L, L 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries1 (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) L, L, L I Lg, U 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries 32. Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries1 @ (Percent reporting) (Bil. dol.) 1986 80.7 80.2 79.2 80.5 79.8 78.5 99.02 101.26 100.94 92.63 94.73 94.33 81.63 80.74 79.16 0.63 2.18 3.23 363.66 365.84 369.06 46 48 50 79.9 79.6 79.3 78.7 78.3 78.0 98.18 97.30 97.90 91.58 90.68 91.15 81.07 78.92 80.38 -2.76 -1.32 -1.70 366.30 364.98 363.28 50 55 50 79.7 79.6 79.4 78.1 77.9 77.7 99.68 96.30 102.95 92.72 89.50 95.59 79.18 80.04 82.66 -0.03 -1.88 2.29 363.24 361.36 363.55 54 51 52 79.5 79.6 80.2 77.9 78.5 79.1 99.98 99.98 105.68 92.48 92.32 97.58 81.25 79.54 85.34 -1.06 -0.03 -0.71 362.60 362.57 361.86 54 56 56 79.6 80.0 80.3 78.7 78.7 78.7 r96.91 rlO2.O7 rlO5.96 r89.32 r94.07 r97.48 r80.85 r84.53 r85.70 r-2.34 r-1.18 rl.70 r359.51 r358.33 r360.03 55 52 55 June 80.2 80.4 80.8 79.1 79.3 79.8 rlO5.72 106.99 109.18 r97.16 98.16 100.07 r83.97 83.78 85.43 r2.97 4.52 4.70 363.00 367.51 372.22 57 60 57 July August September 81.5 81.5 81.3 80.6 81.1 81.2 109.21 106.68 109.34 99.83 97.16 99.04 84.16 83.69 85.71 6.18 2.54 0.91 378.40 380.94 381.85 62 60 69 82.0 82.2 r82.6 82.1 82.9 111.10 110.95 100.45 99.95 [H>r83.6 E)115.62 0)103.70 85.96 r85.89 [H)86.60 2.84 2.57 2.59 384.70 387.27 389.86 70 66 71 r83.0 r82.4 rll4.20 rll4.26 P114.32 rlO1.96 rlO1.93 plO1.62 r84.85 r86.19 p86.12 r5.25 r3.81 p0.99 r395.11 r398.92 H)p399.91 68 66 69 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1987 January February March April May October November December 1988 January February March [H>r82.8 r82.6 p82.5 p82.4 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 2 1 . lr rhe following series reached their high values before 1986: 64 id series 32 (72) in March 1984. APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic C, C, C Timing Class C, C T C Manufacturing and trade sales 57. Constant (1982) dollars 56. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 1986 Revised (Mil. dol.) 2 C, L, C 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (1977 = 100) C L, U ness Enterprises U, L, U Sales of retail stores 54. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) (2) FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Formation of Busi- Consumption and Trade Process Year and month fm t i l 1 CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued 59. Constant (1982) dollars (Mil. dol.) L, C, C 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 58. Index of consumer sentiment1 (u) L, L, L 12. Index of net business formation (1st Q 1966 = 100) (1967 = 100) L, L, L 13. Number of new business incorporations (Number) (2) January February March 424,255 419,113 415,757 410,518 410,199 408,575 123.6 122.9 121.4 117,524 116,599 116,184 108,617 108,768 109,298 122*4 95.6 95.9 95.1 119.3 120.8 121.5 57,580 58,799 58,365 April May June 421,251 417,160 422,098 417,819 412,006 413,946 123.8 123.8 123.7 116,905 118,259 118,314 110,601 111,355 111,197 126.2 96.2 94.8 99.3 122.4 120.7 120.3 58,937 58,257 57,558 July August September 420,678 423,115 436,761 417,523 419,488 430,295 124.5 125.0 123.6 118,821 120,308 127,115 111,569 112,543 0)118,247 H>15:L3 97.7 94.9 91.9 120.7 119.3 120.4 58,002 56,541 58,002 October November December 428,495 429,396 442,876 422,639 422,723 431,993 124.8 125.0 126.6 120,778 120,470 126,011 112,666 112,274 116,677 141.3 95.6 91.4 89.1 119.7 118.3 121.9 57,410 56,924 E>65,318 January February March 425,002 442,408 445,574 416,920 r433,196 r431,072 125.5 126.4 126.7 117,246 rl23,292 rl24,105 107,961 rll3,008 rll3,131 117.5 90.4 90.2 90.8 118.1 120.5 122.0 55,069 58,880 60,193 April May June 445,252 447,215 453,701 429,733 428,743 430,800 125.5 127.3 127.2 124,744 124,775 126,511 113,301 112,715 113,871 125.1 92.8 91.1 91.5 120.7 119.3 119.4 57,715 56,624 57,502 July August September 454,330 460,047 464,984 433,890 436,811 [0)439,591 128.9 129.4 127.7 127,230 129,981 127,815 114,415 116,470 114,121 148.3 93.7 94.4 93.6 119.5 120.6 121.5 57,483 57,951 57,066 October November December 464,947 462,975 E>458,303 438,814 435,121 436,886 129.0 129.4 rl29.8 126,808 127,248 128,615 112,919 113,109 114,426 129.8 89.3 83.1 86.8 120.7 122.4 rl21.7 55,337 57,358 r53,453 465,730 p468,302 (NA) r437,414 p438,970 (NA) rl31.4 rl31.9 H>pl31.9 rl28,769 rl29,579 E)pl30,660 rll4,461 rll5,489 pll5,833 pl35.9 90.8 91.6 94.6 H>rl23.2 rl22.8 pi22.4 p54,913 (NA) 1987 1988 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 22, and 23. 1 2 Series 58 reached its high value (101.0) in March 1984. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. APRIL 1988 65 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^ J Minor Economic Process Business Investment Commitments Timing Class L, L, L L, L, L 10. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) L, L, L L, L,L Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods industries Contracts and orders for plant and equipment Year and month FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued 20. Constant (1982) dollars (Bil. dol.) 24. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) L, C, U 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings1 2 27. Constant (1982) dollars Square feet of floor space (Bil. dol.) (Millions) C Lg, Lg U, Lg, U Square meters of floor space3 (Millions) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations 2 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations2 (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 1986 January February March 29.45 32.82 30.91 30.95 36.40 33.36 24.96 27.66 26.61 26.92 31.78 29.53 72.89 82.65 73.01 6.77 7.68 6.78 23.39 April May June 30.13 29.86 30.53 32.28 32.74 33.78 25.36 25.43 25.85 28.05 28.80 29.64 82.17 78.06 76.57 7.63 7.25 7.11 19.99 July August September 30.97 29.83 31.86 34.68 33.60 34.59 26.40 25.34 27.16 30.63 29.63 30.44 73.43 76.48 76.51 6.82 7.10 7.11 20.20 October November December 32.00 31.99 34.29 34.83 35.23 37.59 27.54 27.27 29.14 30.87 31.03 33.00 73.54 83.00 76.45 6.83 7.71 7.10 22! 10 January February March r31.27 r31.93 r32.76 r33.62 r34.79 r35.90 r26.77 r27.O4 r27.72 r29.63 r30.48 r31.49 80.75 73.72 77.18 7.50 6.85 7.17 2K44 April May June r32.70 34.17 35.33 r35.87 37.70 38.40 r28.12 30.03 29.99 r31.85 34.07 33.72 78.14 76.74 84.28 7.26 7.13 7.83 32.26 July August September 36.77 34.69 34.66 40.63 38.25 38.28 31.98 29.54 29.75 36.47 33.79 34.03 84.76 84.70 85.96 7.87 7.87 7.99 r29.81 October November December 35.23 34.60 38.81 r39.12 r37.53 r41.76 30.42 30.08 33.88 34.94 33.64 37.49 82.21 75.90 84.37 7.64 7.05 7.84 p33.98 r38.60 H)r38.83 p37.79 [H)r43.45 r42.76 p41.57 H)r34.79 r33.75 p33.31 H>r40.17 r38.39 p37.72 69.43 91.89 73.91 6.45 8.54 6.87 (NA) 92^22 85.77 80.71 69.72 1987 69.17 74.*64 r74.71 p76.81 1988 January February March (NA) April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 2 The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 9 (93.19 square feet and 8.66 square meters) in September 1985, series 11 (34.12) in 2d quarter 1984, and series 97 (99.88) in 2d quarter 1985. Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 66 APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC Q | PROCESS FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued Minor Economic Residential Construction Business Investment Expenditures Process Timing Class C Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg Expenditures for new plant and equipment Year and 61. Current dollars 100. Constant (1982) dollars month (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C Lg, Lg 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C Lg, U Commitments and Investment C Lg, C 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (1977 = 100) Lg, Lg, Lg C Lg, C 28. New private housing units started1 Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars 86. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 87. Structures x (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L,L, L 88. Producers' durable equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, thous.) L, L, L 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits x (1967 = 100) L, L, L 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1986 380.04 387*:L3 381.52 394.74 394.11 142.1 141.3 139.2 453.2 145.4 307*8 1,938 1,869 1,873 147.4 141.1 144.3 185.9 376.21 379*25 395.29 383.39 388.43 139.6 138.6 137.2 441.0 128.4 312 *6 1,947 1,847 1,845 149.4 141.8 143.0 196.5 375.50 376.42 388.27 387.28 386.99 139.4 139.1 139.6 437.7 122*7 315.0 1,789 1,804 1,685 141.8 137.8 134.5 201.i 386.09 386.76 393.82 391.03 412.26 139.4 138.8 139.5 443.2 124.6 318*6 1,683 1,630 1,837 132.7 132.9 148.5 0)202*2 January February March 374.23 374.49 r370.84 r386.83 r394.77 138.6 141.7 141.9 426.0 120.4 305.6 1,804 1,809 1,723 131.7 133.7 137.1 198*2 April May June 377*.65 376.95 390.24 390.29 399.08 142.1 141.7 144.2 437.9 120*4 317.5 1,635 1,599 1,583 127.4 119.1 121.0 196.8 July August September 393.13 r394.54 402.81 409.64 423.70 145.6 145.6 146.3 463.8 127.2 336*6 1,594 1,583 1,679 118.6 119.8 119.8 193.5 October November December [H)409.37 [H)408.88 r415.39 415.48 465.6 129*8 E)r437.33 148.7 148.3 rl49.8 335.8 1,538 1,661 1,399 116.7 117.1 108.5 197.0 r435.30 p435.58 (NA) rl50.9 rl51.4 [H>pl52.4 rl,382 [H>p488".3 pl28.1 [H>p360.3 100.2 113.4 116.9 p!92.2 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1987 1988 January February March ra422*.75 ra420*52 April May June ra427'o9 ra424.46 rl,514 pi,543 July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25. 'The following series reached their high values before 1986: (158.5) in February 1984. APRIL 1988 series 87 (151.7) in 2d quarter 1985, and series 28 (2,260) and series 29 67 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued H MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process Inventory Investment Timing Ciass Year and month NVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT L, L, L 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars l (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L. L, L L L, L 36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars1 Smoothed2 Actual (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Inventories on Hand and on Order (Ann. rate, bi!. dol.) 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 38. Change in mfrs." inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Manufacturing and trade inventories 71. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) 70. Constant (1982) dollars (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (Ratio) L, Lg, Lg 78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Bil. dol.) 3 Revised3 Revised3 1986 Lg- Lg, Lg ( ) January February March 35.3 22.18 15.18 43.63 8.37 12.76 21.74 28.7 -2.4 19.4 -0.23 1.22 -0.45 657.84 657.64 659.26 639.55 640.54 644.56 105.75 105.43 105.21 1.56 1.56 [fi>1.58 229.97 231.18 230.73 April May June 28.1 11.26 -39.48 20.98 25.18 14.25 1.36 9.0 -27.1 5.3 -0.96 -1.95 -1.33 660.01 657.76 658.20 646.10 643.87 645.89 105.17 104.87 103.80 1.55 1.56 1.56 229.77 227.82 226.49 July August September 6.1 26.09 -24.98 -30.89 0.06 4.95 -1.28 29.9 -4.5 -17.4 -0.90 -1.09 1.42 660.68 660.31 658.87 648.98 647.14 644.01 104.05 103.60 102.74 1.55 1.54 1.50 225.59 224.50 225.92 October November December -14.4 27.23 -22.78 -4.97 -9.74 -9.18 -4.49 29.4 -5.9 -44.4 -0.97 0.12 1.57 661.32 660.82 657.12 646.72 645.45 643.29 102.96 103.96 103.23 1.53 1.53 1.49 224.94 225.07 226.64 January February March r64.33 rl.15 r52.39 r6.01 rl6.18 r29.73 82.8 19.9 34.1 -0.73 r-0.51 r2.55 664.02 665.68 668.52 649.53 649.55 651.82 rlO4.42 47.6 rl04.08 104.59 1.56 1.50 1.51 225.90 r225.39 r227.94 April May June 39.0 rl9.74 48.40 33.05 r31.86 r32.30 r36.95 31.3 73.0 44.0 r2.86 0.59 2.46 671.13 677.21 680.88 652.67 655.75 656.98 104.22 104.28 103.48 1.52 1.53 1.53 230.80 231.40 233.86 July August September 24.6 35.63 -11.50 22.84 r36.38 29.04 17.36 39.3 12.0 52.4 2.98 1.36 1.99 684.15 685.15 689.51 658.83 657.37 658.31 104.58 105.37 104.77 1.52 1.50 1.50 236.84 238.19 240.18 October November December 60.5 66.19 r28.49 r32.33 20.75 r32.51 K0.76 [H>97.6 69.3 77.1 1.89 1.11 3.50 697.65 703.42 709.85 663.80 666.13 669.04 105.91 106.80 107.57 1.51 1.53 1.53 242.07 243.17 246.67 r62.28 pl8.01 (NA) r41.68 p57.9 p39.29 (NA) 62.1 p9.9 (NA) H>r4.08 p0.45 (NA) 715.03 [R)p715.85 (NA) r674.53 (H>p675.57 (NA) rl08.70 H)plO9.29 (NA) rl.54 pi.54 (NA) r250.76 H>P251.21 (NA) 1987 1988 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27. lr rhe following series reached their high values before 1986: series 50 (S3.4) in 1st quarter 1984, series 36 actual (89.60) in February 1984, and series 36 smoothed (78.81) in May 1984. 2 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q | Minor Economic Process Stock Prices Sensitive Commodity Prices Timing Class Year and month PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS L, L, L 98. Change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermediate materials1 (Percent) U, L, L 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial, matenals2(u) (1967 = 100) L, L, L L L, L 99. Change in sensitive materials prices Smoothed3 Actual (Percent) (Percent) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (u) (1941-43 = 10) Profits and Profit Margins L, L, L L, L, L Corporate profits after tax 16. Current dollars1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 18. Constant (1982) dollars1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L,C, L L, C, L Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdjA 79. Current dollars1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 80. Constant (1982) dollars1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to corporate domestic income1 (Percent) 1986 0.37 -0.92 0.93 236.9 233.3 223.1 0.29 -0.68 -0.99 -0.05 -0.05 -0.28 208.19 219.37 232.33 12CL9 111.9 189.9 182.8 4'.3 1.29 0.82 0.45 219.9 221.3 225.0 0.00 0.50 0.69 -0.51 -0.36 122.3 112.5 180.2 17K3 4*.7 0.12 237.98 238.46 245.30 July August September 0.99 -2.14 1.18 227.6 212.0 221.2 0.69 -2.83 1.71 0.51 0.07 -0.31 240.18 245.00 238.27 130.2 119.5 180.3 170*i 4^9 October November December 1.17 1.16 -0.18 235.5 243.7 247.5 2.27 1.35 0.38 0.12 1.08 1.56 237.36 245.09 248.61 134.0 122.7 167.1 156.0 5.1 0.35 0.26 0.88 252.8 247.2 246.3 0.76 -0.57 0.19 1.08 0.51 0.16 264.51 280.93 292.47 129.0 116.1 165.9 153.3 4.6 -0.26 2.52 1.78 253.8 272.6 276.4 0.85 IB) 3.00 289.32 289.12 301.38 134.5 120.5 162.6 148.8 4^8 1.00 0.14 0.75 1.48 July August September 1.92 1.55 3.38 284.2 288.3 292.4 1.53 0.98 1.58 H>1.73 1.51 1.27 0)329.36 318.66 141 ^9 126.8 172.0 157*7 5.1 October November December 2.57 rl.44 r-0.22 0)294.6 292.0 293.1 1.13 r0.26 rO.09 1.30 rl.ll r0.74 280.16 245.01 240.96 rl45.6 rl29.5 rl73.0 rl57.3 4.*9 0.60 292.5 288.9 292.3 0.17 -0.34 0.85 0.33 rO.07 pO.10 250.48 258.13 265.74 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) January February March April May June 1987 January February March April May June 310.09 1988 January February March 0.07 1.49 April May June 5 297.2 6 264.25 July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29. 1 The following series readied their high values before 1986: series 98 (3.55) in July 1983; series 16 (152.5), series 18 (149.4), and 2 This is a copyrighted series used by series 22 (6.9) in 1st quarter 1984; and series 79 (192.3) and series 80 (186.6) in 3d quarter 1985. 3 See footnote 2 on page 68. ''See permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 5 6 footnote 1 on page 70. Average for April 1 through 26. Average for April 5, 12, 19, and 26. I M J I APRIL 1988 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS | J Minor Economic Process Year and month Cash Flows Profits and Profit Margins—Continued Timing Class U, L, L L, L, L 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corp. domestic income 12 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Percent) (Cents) PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con mued L, L, L 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (1977 = 100) L, L, L Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share L, L, L Corporate net cash flow 34. Current dollars Lg, Lg, Lg 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector 35. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (1977 = 100) Lg, Lg, Lg 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations (Dollars) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing2 Actual data (1977 = 100) Actual data as a percent of trend (Percent) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income2 (Percent) 1986 January February March 7.8 3.7 99.5 364.6 365.8 165.0 0.709 137.3 137.6 139.3 100.1 100.3 101.5 73.3 April May June 7.6 4.3 99.3 363.3 363.2 166.2 0.714 137.6 138.1 138.0 100.3 100.7 100.6 72*9 July August September 7.3 3.4 99.4 370.9 371.0 167.5 0.717 137.2 137.8 137.8 100.0 100.4 100.4 73." 1 October November December 6.7 3.4 98.4 376*7 375.9 169.0 0.720 138.8 137.6 136.4 101.2 100.3 99.4 73*5 January February March 6.4 4*5 99.1 378.7 378.6 169.4 0.724 137.4 136.8 136.0 100.1 99.7 99.1 73.0 April May June 6*2 4.8 99.4 384.6 384.3 170.2 0.728 135.9 135.7 135.0 99.1 98.9 98.4 73*0 July August September 6.5 [H>5.'6 |H>100.2 392.2 391.5 169.8 0.727 133.6 134.5 135.8 97.4 98.0 99.0 72.8 October November December r6.2 p4.3 99.9 [R>r397.9 [H)r397.8 E)r0.735 135.0 135.1 134.5 98.4 98.5 98.0 72.*5 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) rl34.4 rl34.6 pl36.0 r98.0 r98.1 p99.1 (NA) 1987 (H> 171 .* 2 1988 January February March (NA) April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30. 1 IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 2 The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 81 (8.4) in 3d quarter 1985, series 62 (139.8 actual data and as percent of trend) in October 1985, and series 64 (73.6) in 4th quarter 1985. 70 APRIL 1988 101.? CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q | Minor Economic Process MONEY AND CREDIT Money Timing Class L, L, L 85. Change in money supply Ml L, C, U 102. Change in money supply M21 L, L,L Velocity of Money L, L, L L, L,L 104. Change in total liquid assetsx 105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (Percent) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) Year and month (Percent) (Percent) I2) 1986 C,C, C 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml1 (Ratio) Credit Flows C Lg, C 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M21 (Ratio) L, L, L 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companiesx (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L,L 112. Net change in business loans (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised2 C) r0.26 r0.56 1.41 r0.35 r0.44 0.79 0.69 rO.62 rO.63 r546.8 551.3 562.1 r2,261.7 2,277.7 2,307.9 r6.658 rl.339 1.341 1.338 -23.17 57.40 43.56 67.82 -37.57 -15.70 April May June 1.14 1.64 1.47 0.93 0.95 0.94 r0.68 0.70 0.63 569.4 577.7 583.2 2,333.5 2,351.4 2,361.0 6.465 1.342 1.329 1.318 52.58 30.83 (NA) -64.72 24.78 -9.78 July August September 1.44 1.45 1.01 0.95 0.84 0.66 0.78 0.66 0.70 591.5 599.0 603.5 2,383.5 2,399.3 2,408.8 6.277 1.310 1.304 1.300 -0.35 45.86 -22.81 October November December 1.09 1.65 0)2.69 0.82 0.60 0.90 0.48 0.52 0.73 609.0 618.0 633.0 2,424.3 2,434.6 2,450.1 6.049 1.293 1.290 1.287 20.66 20.03 83.57 January February March 0.83 -0.01 0.40 0.71 0.05 0.18 0.70 0.29 -0.04 633.8 631.0 630.8 2,450.4 2,441.2 2,435.0 5.978 1.284 1.298 1.300 0)135.72 -24.54 -32.38 April May June 1.43 0.24 -0.59 0.46 0.06 0.09 0.37 0.68 r0.38 0)637.0 636.4 631.0 2,435.8 2,428.9 2,424.9 5.971 1.300 1.302 1.303 2.14 -7.34 -7.34 July August September 0.20 0.39 0.13 0.22 0.40 0.40 rO.O5 r0.51 r0.60 630.7 630.5 629.2 2,424.2 2,423.6 2,425.0 6.065 1.308 1.311 1.313 -55.27 -31.85 22.09 October November December 1.16 -0.46 -0.24 r0.48 rO.O7 r0.16 r0.68 rO.27 rO.O3 634.4 629.9 627.3 r2,428.4 r2,423.8 r2,423.6 6.116 rl.332 rl.326 rl.334 37.16 5.46 69.25 January February March 1.07 0.09 p0.49 r0.83 rO.72 p0.77 r0.89 pO.75 (NA) 631.9 631.4 p631.3 r2,435.6 r2,449.2 0)p2,455.7 p6.128 rl.324 rl.322 pi.322 -59.82 71.78 p-65,16 April May June 3 January February March 1987 1988 0.98 July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 3 1 , and 32. lr rhe following series reached their high values before 1986: series 102 (2.66) in January 1983, series 104 (1.20) in March 1984, series 2 107 (7.035) in 4th quarter 1984, series 108 (1.373) in March 1984, and series 33 (143.70) in September 1984. See "New Features and 3 Changes for This Issue," page iii. Average for weeks ended April 5 and 12. APRIL 1988 71 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC W t PROCESS Minor Economic Credit Difficulties Credit Flows—Continued Process Timing Class Year L, L, L 113. Net change in consumer installment credit1 L, L, L 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding1 and MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued L, L, L 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets1 L, L, L 14. Current liabilities of business failures 1 © month (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) Bank Reserves L, L, L 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over1 Interest Rates L, U, U L, Lg, U 93. Free reserves1© 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve1© L, Lg, Lg 119. Federal funds rate 1 © C Lg, Lg 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills 1 © (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, percent) Revised2 Revised2 75.25 78.84 35.45 12.4 5.3 4.5 411,284 3,238.9 3,252.2 3,278.8 2.27 2.29 2.41 341 213 135 770 884 761 8.14 7.86 7.48 7.04 7.03 6.59 60.43 59.93 51.44 1.7 7.8 3.6 575,340 1,766.8 3,572.8 3,467.6 2.44 2.52 2.53 -92 -38 128 893 876 803 6.99 6.85 6.92 6.06 6.12 6.21 62.69 54.25 73.09 6.8 7.2 3.0 738,552 7,464.6 2,748.4 5,126.7 2.22 2.33 2.24 169 -132 -282 741 872 1,008 6.56 6.17 5.89 5.84 5.57 5.19 75.35 21.72 0.50 8.3 4.6 12.2 777,632 2,870.8 2,170.2 4,326.8 2.25 2.34 2.26 -95 226 542 841 752 827 5.85 6.04 6.91 5.18 5.35 5.49 -10.39 31,74 22.08 7.6 1.7 2.2 378,972 p3,446.6 p2,921.1 p2,622.7 2.43 2.40 2.28 488 655 389 580 556 527 6.43 6.10 6.13 5.45 5.59 5.56 April May June 55.44 13.93 79.74 6.3 5.1 8.2 612,328 p2,024.8 p2,872.4 p2 , 7 4 2 . 3 2.36 2.43 2.35 -166 44 414 993 1,035 776 6.37 6.85 6.73 5.76 5.75 5.69 July August September 67.61 56.14 57.46 1.2 4.1 10.3 582,660 p2,142.7 pi,907.4 p2,026.2 2.34 2.37 2.35 89 385 -147 672 647 940 6.58 6.73 7.22 5.78 6.00 6.32 October November December 47.39 21.59 51.54 9.6 5.9 12.1 p613,780 p3 , 1 5 1 . 6 pi,610.6 p5,512.2 2.66 2.54 2.47 186 298 252 943 625 777 7.29 6.69 6.77 6.40 5.81 5.80 74.83 p63.65 (NA) 1.6 pl0.8 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 213 r737 p-830 1,082 396 pi,752 6.83 6.58 6.58 5.90 5.69 5.69 6.85 "5.91 (Mil. dol.) (Percent) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 1986 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1987 January February March 1988 January February March April May June 3 July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34. x The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 113 (132.08) in September 1985; series 111 (22.7) in June 1984; series 110 (948,376) in 4th quarter 1985; series 14 (829.2) in July 1983; series 39 (1.78) in February 1984; and series 93 (-7,328), series 94 (8,017), series 119 (11.64), and series 114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 3 Average for weeks ended April 6, 13, and 20. ^Average for weeks ended April 7, 14, and 21. 72 APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q | Minor Economic Process Interest Rates—Continued Timing Class Year and month MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued Lg, Lg, Lg 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds x © (Percent) C Lg, Lg 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds1© (Percent) U, Lg, Lg 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20bond average 1 ® (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Outstand ng Debt Lg, Lg, Lg 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages1© 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 1 © (Percent) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 109. Average prime rate charged by banks 1 © 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (Percent) 1986 (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 72. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) Revised 2 Revised2 101. Constant (1982) dollars (Percent) (Mil. dol.) Revised 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income 2 Revised2 10.33 9.76 8.95 9.51 9.07 8.13 8.08 7.44 7.08 10.78 10.59 9.77 9.29 9.50 9.50 9.10 524,025 530,595 533,549 357,232 354,101 352,793 346,155 348,182 351,738 15.21 15.32 15.32 April May June 8.71 9.09 9.39 7.59 8.02 8.23 7.20 7.54 7.87 9.80 10.07 9.98 8.13 8.83 8.50 8.50 538,585 543,579 547,866 347,400 349,465 348,650 348,795 349,465 348,999 15.28 15.42 15.53 July August September 9.11 9.03 9.28 7.86 7.72 8.08 7.51 7.21 7.11 10.01 9.80 9.90 7^73 8.16 7.90 7.50 553,090 557,611 563,702 348,621 352,443 350,542 350,725 354,927 352,658 15.62 15.69 15.80 October November December 9.29 8.99 8.87 8.04 7.81 7.67 7.08 6.85 6.86 9.80 9.26 9.21 7.28 7.50 7.50 7.50 569,981 571,791 571,833 352,264 353,933 360,897 353,324 354,642 361,983 15.93 15.93 15.83 January February March 8.59 8.58 8.68 7.60 7.69 7.62 6.61 6.61 6.66 8.79 8.81 8.94 7^46 7.50 7.50 7.50 570,967 573,612 575,452 [H)385,036 382,991 380,293 [H>383,120 379,199 375,784 15.72 15.62 15.62 April May June 9.36 9.95 9.64 8.31 8.79 8.63 7.55 8.00 7.79 10.02 10.61 10.33 8.24 7.75 8.14 8.25 580,072 581,233 587,878 380,471 379,859 379,247 373,377 370,233 368,201 15.67 15.67 15.82 July August September 9.70 10.09 10.63 8.70 8.97 9.58 7.72 7.82 8.26 10.38 10.55 11.22 8.20 8.25 8.25 8.70 593,512 598,190 602,978 374,641 371,987 373,828 361,972 358,369 360,490 15.87 15.91 15.94 October November December 10.80 10.09 10.22 9.61 8.99 9.12 8.70 7.95 7.96 10.90 10.76 10.63 8.47 9.07 8.78 8.75 606,927 608,726 613,021 376,925 377,380 383,151 362,080 362,169 368,061 15.75 15.85 15.84 9.81 9.43 9.68 8.82 8.41 8.61 7.69 7.49 7.74 10.17 9.86 10.28 8.37 8.75 8.51 8.50 619,258 [H)p624,563 (NA) 377,333 383,315 p377,885 361,084 366,458 p360,234 rl5.99 [H>pl6.04 (NA) 8.86 "7.83 January February March 1987 1988 January February March April May June 39.87 3 5 8.50 July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35. x The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 116 (14.49), series 115 (13.00), and series 117 (10.67) in June 1984; series 118 (15.01) in May 1984; series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984; and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This issue," page iii. 3 Average for weeks ended April 1, 8, 15, and 22. ^Average for weeks ended April 7, 14, and 21. 5 Average for Apri1 1 through 26. ItO APRIL 1988 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Q Year and month 950. Eleven leading indicator components (series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29,32, 36, 99, 106, 111) 1 1-month span 6-month span 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (series 41,47,51,57) 1-month span DIFFUSION INDEXES 952. Six lagging indicator components (series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries 1-month span 9-month span 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas2 1-month span 9-month span 963. Employees on private nonagncultural payrolls, 186 industries 1-month span 6-month span 1986 January February March 59.1 45.5 59.1 59.1 50.0 54.5 75.0 75.0 50.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 58.3 75.0 66.7 50.0 66.7 50.0 20.0 17.5 85.0 80.0 55.0 30.0 58.8 52.9 64.7 49.0 39.2 51.0 53.2 48.1 48.1 47.6 47.6 43.0 April May June 63.6 50.0 59.1 54.5 63.6 63.6 100.0 25.0 37.5 75.0 75.0 100.0 0.0 66.7 33.3 41.7 50.0 33.3 40.0 50.0 52.5 57.5 32.5 52.5 25.5 74.5 56.9 56.9 56.9 67.6 53.5 52.4 46.8 43.2 45.4 48.4 July August September 59.1 50.0 50.0 68.2 72.7 90.9 87.5 100.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 41.7 50.0 41.7 50.0 37.5 77.5 65.0 87.5 60.0 82.5 34.3 78.4 17.6 92.2 45.1 90.2 52.4 56.2 55.1 47.3 53.0 59.2 October November December 54.5 72.7 81.8 81.8 81.8 90.9 75.0 87.5 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 91.7 41.7 25.0 75.0 33.3 58.3 57.5 75.0 52.5 87.5 70.0 52.5 71.6 80.4 7.8 70.6 70.6 94.1 53.2 59.7 59.7 58.9 57.8 58.9 36.4 45.5 63.6 72.7 72.7 63.6 25.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 66.7 25.0 25.0 50.0 58.3 66.7 67.5 60.0 32.5 72.5 70.0 75.0 88.2 35.3 52.0 69.6 82.4 78.4 53.5 56.8 58.6 61.9 62.7 58.9 r40.9 45.5 68.2 72.7 63.6 r59.1 62.5 50.0 87.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 r50.0 58.3 r50.0 58.3 50.0 7.5 95.0 50.0 62.5 32.5 85.0 73.5 78.4 15.7 80.4 94.1 90.2 58.4 58.6 55.7 67.3 67.6 71.1 July August September 50.0 45.5 59.1 63.6 63.6 r59.1 100.0 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 r41.7 41.7 91.7 r50.0 58.3 66.7 55.0 60.0 22.5 55.0 70.0 r95.0 64.7 84.3 37.3 92.2 59.8 66.7 68.6 54.6 65.4 76.2 78.6 80.3 October November December 72.7 rl8.2 50.0 r63.6 59.1 3 50.0 75.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 '100.0 66.7 r75.0 25.0 66.7 83.3 50.0 85.0 40.0 32.5 r32.5 p45.0 86.3 23.5 5.9 r31.4 p70.6 65.4 71.9 63.2 r75.7 r77.6 p74.3 1987 January February March April May June 5 1988 January February March r45.5 54.5 3 66.7 75.0 87.5 * 100.0 5 50.0 66.7 50.0 r45.0 r25.O p55.0 78.4 r33.3 p64.7 r60.0 r62.2 p55.7 April May June July August September October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span: 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised: " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 36. 1 Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index. 2 Figures are the percent of components declining. 3 Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available. "•Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. 5 Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available. 74 APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q j Year and month 964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34 durable goods industries 1-month span 9-month span 965. Newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries 1-quarter span DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued 966. Industrial production, 24 industries 4-Q moving average 1-month span 967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials © 6-month span 1-month span 9-month span 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks 1 © 1-month span 9-month span 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies2© (4-quarter span) 1986 January February March 55.9 47.1 44.1 38.2 44.1 44.1 36 April May June 58.8 26.5 55.9 47.1 51.5 50.0 24 July August September 44.1 39.7 64.7 32.4 67.6 r52.9 59 October November December 50.0 44.1 63.2 67.6 r79.4 r70.6 65 January February March r50.0 r67.6 55.9 85.3 72.1 79.4 42 April May June r41.2 r42.6 64.7 82.4 79.4 79.4 83 July August September 67.6 39.7 58.8 r70.6 r70.6 r79.4 r59 October November December 52.9 47.1 55.9 r76.5 p69.1 p65 75.0 41.7 58.3 61.5 38.5 34.6 46.2 50.0 57.7 60.5 81.0 94.0 90.5 90.5 88.1 70 43 85.4 37.5 16.7 47.9 50.0 58.3 53.8 61.5 65.4 42.3 50.0 50.0 61.9 50.0 77.4 88.1 90.5 81.0 *70 46 75.0 35.4 52.1 58.3 47.9 31.2 47.9 75.0 79.2 50.0 50.0 65.4 50.0 65.4 73.1 35.7 67.9 42.9 81.0 71.4 78.6 *74 48 72.9 87.5 87.5 73.1 61.5 65.4 65.4 80.8 76.9 34.5 76.2 50.0 95.2 100.0 92.9 74 62 70.8 70.8 75.0 91.7 89.6 75.0 84.6 42.3 30.8 88.5 96.2 80.8 98.8 95.2 83.3 87.8 92.7 92.5 74 r62 31.2 64.6 60.4 75.0 87.5 83.3 61.5 88.5 57.7 73.1 96.2 80.8 39.3 46.3 93.9 97.5 97.5 62.5 76 p62 50.0 70.8 70.8 91.7 91.7 r95.8 73.1 76.9 61.5 88.5 88.5 76.9 81.3 95.0 8.8 10.0 12.5 10.0 (NA) (NA) 70.8 62.5 50.0 75.0 79.2 r66.7 r87.5 r75.0 p83.3 53.8 46.2 50.0 53.8 69.2 69.2 0.0 0.0 53.8 17.5 8.0 1987 3 1988 January February March r44.1 r50.0 p50.0 (NA) r54.2 54.2 p58.3 42.3 34.6 65.4 3 April May June 75.0 88.8 37.0 57.7 July August September October November December See note on page 74. Graphs of these series are shown on page 37. 1 Based on 43 industries through January 1986, on 42 industries through April 1987, on 41 industries through June 1987, and on 40 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun fT Bradstreet, Inc. 3 Based on average for April 5, 12, 19, and 26. APRIL 1988 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q 970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment, 21 industries Year and quarter a. Actual expenditures c. Early projections b. Later projections (1-Qspan) 971. New orders, manufacturing! (u) 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade' @ 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade1 @ Actual Actual Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (1-Qspan) (1-Qspan) DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1985 First q u a r t e r Second q u a r t e r .... Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 66.7 73.8 61.9 52.4 61 76 66. 42. 9 2 7 9 66.7 71.4 76.2 38.1 74 74 76 75 82 84 82 80 70 69 70 70 80 81 81 78 76 74 75 74 84 84 84 81 19.0 52.4 42.9 81.0 47. 66. 42. 85. 6 7 9 7 64.3 66.7 38.1 52.4 76 76 74 75 82 83 84 78 70 71 70 70 78 81 81 78 72 73 74 74 81 84 83 80 40.5 61.9 85.7 64.3 42. 78. 85. 85. 9 6 7 7 50.0 71.4 66.7 61.9 78 83 82 82 80 83 85 86 74 74 75 76 78 81 83 82 78 80 82 83 82 83 85 86 (NA) 85. 7 61.9 57.1 (NA) 84 (NA) 82 82 (NA) 85 84 1986 First q u a r t e r Second q u a r t e r .... Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1987 First q u a r t e r Second q u a r t e r .... Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1988 First q u a r t e r Second quarter .... 84 Third quarter Fourth quarter .... Q | 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade '• (u) Year and quarter (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 976. Selling price s, manufactoring1 (u) 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade1 @ Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued Anticipated Actual 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade1 (u) 978. Selling prices, retail trade' (u) Actual Actual Anticipated Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1985 First q u a r t e r Second q u a r t e r .... Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 60 58 58 59 60 62 59 58 66 63 60 61 64 66 62 58 65 62 61 61 70 70 64 62 54 50 59 50 68 66 66 60 66 63 66 62 65 70 67 62 58 59 60 58 59 60 59 58 62 61 62 60 58 58 60 57 59 60 58 63 62 65 62 59 c 59 59 58 { 52 64 64 62 62 60 62 66 62 62 62 64 64 60 61 64 64 60 59 62 62 64 65 66 68 60 60 61 62 64 64 68 70 60 66 67 66 53 70 72 70 63 68 66 69 67 67 72 72 64 64 68 70 (NA) 63 62 (NA) 62 64 (NA) 70 69 (NA) 72 72 (NA) 68 71 1986 First q u a r t e r Second q u a r t e r .... Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1987 First q u a r t e r Second quarter .... Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1988 First q u a r t e r Second q u a r t e r .... Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated b y @ , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 38. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. 76 APRIL 1988 Dun & IU II CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued ^ Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Diffusion index components 1987 August September October 1988 November December Januaryr Februaryr March p 961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING ' (Hours) All manufacturing industries o Percent rising of 20 components 41.0 40.6 (60) (22) + 41.2 41.0 40.9 (32) (45) (25) (55) 40.0 41.3 41.2 41.0 (85) (40) + Durable goods industries: Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures + Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries + Fabricated metal products + Machinery, except electrical 40.4 39.4 + 40.4 + 40.8 40.4 40.1 + 40.4 40.1 39.3 + 40.0 o 40.0 39.8 39.4 + 39.5 42.1 41.9 + 42.6 42.5 42.0 + 42.3 + 42.6 43.5 43.4 + 43.7 o 43.7 43.6 43.5 43.2 + 43.3 + 42.5 o 41.5 40.8 + 42.0 + 42.1 41.7 + 41.9 41.4 42.2 41.6 + 42.6 + 42.7 42.5 + 42.8 42.6 39.0 41.5 42.4 41.0 40.4 + 41.1 41.0 40.9 + 41.2 40.9 + 41.1 Transportation equipment + 41.9 41.3 + 42.5 42.4 41.4 + 42.3 42.0 o 42.0 Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing + 41.7 41.1 + 42.1 41.7 41.3 + + 39.4 39.0 + 40.0 39.6 + Food and kindred products + 40.3 40.2 + 40.5 40.6 o Tobacco manufacturers + 36.1 38.9 + 41.2 41.0 42.1 41.3 + 41.9 41.8 37.4 36.3 + 37.4 37.1 Electric and electronic equipment 39.8 41.2 41.9 41.3 38.9 38.8 40.8 40.4 40.2 39.2 38.3 36.9 + 38.9 Nondurable goods industries: Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products + + + 40.6 + 40.5 41.7 + o 37.2 41.7 o 41.7 - 41.3 36.9 + 37.0 o 37.0 43.3 o 43.3 38.0 + 38.1 42.5 Paper and allied products 43.4 + 43.8 43.7 43.5 43.2 + 43.6 Printing and publishing 37.9 + 38.2 38.0 o 38.0 37.9 + 38.0 42.4 + 42.7 o 42.7 o 42.7 o 43.5 + 43.6 + 44.3 Chemicals and allied products + Petroleum and coal products Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products Leather and leather products + + 41.4 38.9 42.8 43.2 43.3 o 41.4 37.7 + + + 41.9 38.7 + 42.1 38.3 964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES + + 42.5 38.5 o 42.7 42.5 o 44.2 43.4 + 43.5 41.4 36.9 + + 41.7 37.6 114,264 o 114,317 41.8 37.7 2 (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries - 106,678 (40) Percent rising of 34 components 109,345 + 111,095 - 110,949 (47) (53) (59) + 115,620 - 114,196 + (44) (56) (50) (50) 9,461 + 10,735 - 10,437 + 10,903 + 11,997 - 10,254 + 10,346 + 10,778 11,014 + 11,200 - 11,077 + 11,290 + 11,472 - 11,142 + 11,762 + 11,803 - 18,4.12 + 18,806 + 18,953 - 18,024 + 19,195 + 20,552 - 19,699 - 19,660 - 19,234 + 19,994 o 19,999 + 20,288 - 19,762 + 20,716 - 19,467 - 18,560 Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery + Transportation equipment 27,087 - 26,493 + 28,573 + 28,603 + 31,155 - 28,946 + 30,541 + 31,319 Other durable goods industries 21,470 + 22,117 - 22,056 - 21,841 + 22,039 + 22,586 - 22,449 - 22,197 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( f) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available. x 2 Data are seasonally Data for most change adjusted by the source of the diffusion for the six major agency. index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of industry groups shown here. APRIL 1988 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q l SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data andDirections of Char ge—Continued 1988 1987 Diffusion index components September August 966. October November January 1 " December February 1 " Marchp INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ' (1977 = 100) All industrial production + Percent rising of 24 components 131.2 131.0 (62) (50) + 132.5 + (75) 133.2 + 133.9 + o 134.4 (54) (67) (79) 134.4 + 134.6 (54) (58) (NA) (NA) Durable manufactures: 131.1 155.2 Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Clay, glass, and stone products Primary metals + Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery + 116.5 85.1 + 110.1 154.3 + + 126.9 155.9 + + 129.8 156.0 + + 134.0 158.5 133.6 159.4 + 136.1 157.4 - + .135.5 156.1 118.6 84.5 + + 118.9 90.6 + 120.5 90.2 120.1 r90.6 + 120.2 86.6 + + 120.8 85.6 + (NA) 85.9 111.1 156.6 + + 113.5 158.0 + 113.6 157.2 + + 115.8 161.0 + + 117.2 162.5 + + 117.9 162.7 + + 118.2 164.0 + + 177.9 129.9 + + 174.3 128.1 173.4 125.5 + + 175.5 132.0 + - 175.6 130.4 + rl75.9 128.1 + + 177.0 128.6 + 177.8 128.4 + + 146.3 102.2 145.6 102.1 + + 146.7 104.6 + 147.8 104.5 + rl45.5 rlO5.6 + 148.7 104.0 + + 149.3 105.0 149.1 (NA) + + 138.8 110.4 139.5 101.7 + + 138.9 106.5 + + rl40.1 110.5 141.2 107.0 + + 138.0 103.7 + Tobacco products 142.0 (NA) (NA) (NA) Textile mill products + 119.8 108.4 118.2 107.6 116.8 108.0 + + 117.3 109.4 + rll8.2 107.8 + 116.2 108.8 - + 116.0 (NA) (NA) (NA) Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures Nondurable manufactures: Foods Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Petroleum products + + 148.9 174.7 + 147.4 174.9 + 146.0 175.2 + + 148.3 175.7 + + 150.6 rl76.9 + 149.7 179.2 + 148.1 180.7 + (NA) 181.4 + 142.3 92.9 + + 142.4 93.5 141.5 94.6 + + 144.4 93.3 + + rl47.9 96.1 + + 148.9 96.3 + 148.0 96.6 + (NA) 97.8 164.8 61.3 + 165.2 60.7 166.7 59.6 + + 169.9 60.7 + + 170.6 57.5 + 170.3 58.3 + + 170.7 58.9 (NA) (NA) + + 79.3 130.5 + + 86.5 133.3 85.6 140.3 + + 90.4 142.9 + + (NA) 133.7 (NA) 131.0 + - 93.0 130.3 + 93.3 130.0 + + 94.1 131.0 + + 94.2 134.1 Rubber and plastics products Leather and products + + Mining: Metal mining Coal Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals + 91.5 140.2 r96.5 140.6 94.1 135.6 - 92.5 132.2 N O T E : To f a c i l i t a t e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , t h e m o n t h - t o - m o n t h d i r e c t i o n s o f c h a n g e are s h o w n a l o n g w i t h t h e n u m b e r s : ( • ) rising, (o) unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. preliminary: and " N A " , not available. x Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. 78 + 92.4 133.4 + 93.5 (NA) The " r " indicates revised: " p " APRIL 1988 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q Diffusion index SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued ;omponents 1987 September August 1988 October November 96 7. INDEX OF SPOTMARKET PRICES , RAW INDUSTRIALS Raw industrials price index ( 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 ) . . . . + Percent rising of /.? components 288.3 + 292.4 + (62) (77) 294.6 - 292.0 (54) + (46) April1 March February January December 2 293.1 292.5 (50) (42) - 288.9 + 292.3 + (65) (35) 297.2 (58) Dollars Copper scrap 0.619 1.365 + 0.644 1.420 + 0.280 0.617 o 0.280 0.617 + 85.000 93.696 + 95.000 104.719 + (pound).. (kilogram).. + 3.708 8.175 + 3.812 8.404 + (pound).. o 0.480 1.058 0.455 1.003 - + 0.240 0.262 + 0.754 1.662 - 0.965 1.055 (pound).. (kilogram).. + (pound).. (pound).. Lead scrap (kilogram).. Steei scrap (U.S. ton).. (metric t o n ) . . Tin Zinc (kilogram) Burlap (yard).. (meter).. Cotton (pound).. (yard).. Hides (100 p o u n d s ) . . (pound).. (kilogram).. Tallow (pound).. (kilogram) NOTE: T o facilitate interpretation, the m o n t h - t o - m o n t h preliminary: and " N A " . not available. 0.938 2.068 - 0.785 1.731 - 0.770 1.698 - 0.748 1.649 0 0.276 0.608 - 0.272 0.600 - 0.252 0.556 - 0.230 0.507 - 0.214 0.472 - 0.210 0.463 117.000 128.969 - 115.750 127.591 - 104.000 114.639 3.848 8.483 3.928 8.660 + 0.280 0.617 - - 100.000 110.230 3.878 8.549 - 3.860 8.510 + 115.000 126.765 - 109.000 120.151 - 108.750 119.875 3.828 8.439 3.792 8.360 + 3.836 8.457 0.449 0.990 + 0.451 0.994 + 0.454 1.001 + 0.458 1.010 + 0.469 1.034 + 0.492 1.085 + 0.542 1.195 0.256 0.280 + 0.270 0.295 + 0.275 0.301 o 0.275 0.301 + 0.276 0.302 + 0.277 0.303 + 0.281 0.307 + 0.645 1.422 - 0.622 1.371 - 0.595 1.312 - 0.574 1.265 + 0.594 1.310 + 0.597 1.316 - 0.946 1.035 - 0.905 0.990 - 0.655 0.716 - 0.630 0.689 - 0.620 0.678 - 0.590 0.645 - 0.536 0.586 + 0.550 0.601 3.850 8.488 + 4.080 8.995 4.100 9.039 0 4.100 9.039 + 4.380 9.656 + 4.750 10.472 + 5.000 11.023 + 5.420 11.949 + 6.208 13.686 + 0.938 2.068 + 0.987 2.176 + 1.000 2.205 - 0.952 2.099 0.942 2.077 - 0.928 2.046 o 0.928 2.046 + 1.065 2.348 + 1.100 2.425 o 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 0 50.000 110.230 0 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 - 48.125 106.096 - 47.500 104.719 0 47.500 104.719 o 47.500 104.719 + 0.537 1.184 + 0.542 1.195 - 0.538 1.186 - 0.532 1.173 + 0.540 1.190 + 0.547 1.206 - 0.536 1.182 + 0.549 1.210 + 0.555 1.224 0.147 0.324 + 0.152 0.335 - 0.150 0.331 - 0.146 0.322 + 0.148 0.326 + 0.173 0.381 - 0.168 0.370 + 0.170 0.375 - 0.165 0.364 (100 kilograms).. Rubber + 0.636 1.402 (kilogram).. Rosin 0.934 2.059 - (meter).. Wool tops 0.238 0.260 + 0.712 1.570 (kilogram).. Print cloth - 0.825 1.819 0.646 1.424 + (pound).. (kilogram).. + directions o f change are s h o w n along with the n u m b e r s : (•) rising, ( o ) u n c h a n g e d , a n d ( - ) •= f a l l i n g . The " r " indicates revised: "p". The index is the average for April 1 through 26; component prices are averages for April 5, 12, 19, and 26. Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, lac. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 APRIL 1988 79 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT il 200. Gross national p roduct Year and quarter (Ann (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) rate, bil. jol.) 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars in current dollars b. Difference a. Total GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME a. Total c. Percent change at annual rate c. Percent change at annual ate b. Difference ( Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Ann. rate, bil do!.) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars 213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 104.4 69.3 52.5 68.4 62.4 7 4 5 5 7 1 6 : ,568. : ,587. : ,623. ,650. 174.4 211.6 265.9 288.1 70.0 37.2 54.3 22.2 7 3 5 2 : ,698. z,, 77 01 48 .. 4 , 377.7 4, 445.1 4 , 524.0 4, 6 0 7 . 4 89.6 67.4 78.9 83.4 8 6 6. 3 7 3 7 6 : ,772. z,, 78 93 55 .. z 3 ,880. 2 3 9 8 40 7 23 1 40 6 44 9 660.9 p53.5 7 p3 , 9 0 2 . 6 p21 8 3, 3, 4, 4, .... .... 921.1 973.6 042.0 7 1 0 9 33 18 35 27 5 4 9 9 3 .8 2 .1 4 .1 3 .1 14,966 15,010 15,120 15,19 1 3,549.2 3,569.9 3,628.7 3,652.5 8 7 0 ,731. 5 47 5 13 13 9 9 3 5 .4 o.6.4 15,362 15,352 15,370 15,388 3,663.4 3,676.7 3,711.9 3,745.8 4 .8 15,525 15,588 15,715 15,85< 3,724.5 3,756.3 3,811.4 3,820.3 P2 .3 pl5,910 p3,844.7 z 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 4, 4, 4, 4, .... .... 0 6 3 1 1 1 .5 1987 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 4 .4 2 .5 4 .3 1988 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter P4 .... .... D E GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME—Continued 9 230. Total in current dollars Disposable personal income Year and quarter (Ann rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bi . dol.) 231. Total n 1982 dollars 232. Durable goods in current dollars 233. Durable goods in 1982 dollars 227. Per capita in 1982 dollars 225. Constant (1982) dollars 224. Current dollars PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (Ann . rate, bil. dol.) (Ann rate, bil. (iol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 2,762. 2,848. 2,847. 2,906. 2 4 2 6 2,506 2,558 2,538 2,565 .8 .4 .2 .5 10 10 10 10 ,513 ,705 ,592 ,679 2 ,549. 2 ,602. 2 ,665. 2 ,700. 9 0 4 1 2 ,314 2 ,337 2 ,376 2 ,383 1 0 1 2 358.2 362.4 383.7 370.5 342.4 346.6 366.8 355.1 2,966. 3,022. 3,038. 3,061. 0 4 2 6 2,610 2,660 2,653 2,656 .5 .2 _2 .1 10 11 10 10 ,842 ,024 ,968 ,956 2 ,737. 2 ,765 2 ,837 2 ,858 9 8 1 6 2 ,409 2 ,434 2 ,477 2 ,480 7 3 5 5 375.9 386.4 427.6 419.8 359.8 369.6 405.5 399.0 3,125. 3,130. 3,195. 3,275. 9 6 3 0 2,674 2,645 2,674 2,713 .6 .5 11 10 10 11 ,008 ,865 ,958 ,090 2 ,893 8 2 ,943 7 3 ,011 o 3 ,022 6 2 ,475 2 ,487 2 ,520 2 ,504 9 5 7 .6 396.1 409.0 436.8 413.0 375.9 385.4 406.9 384.5 Dll ,151 P3 , 0 6 8 7 P2 ,528 2 p425.7 p396.2 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter F o u r t h quarter .... .... 1987 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... .7 .8 1988 First quarter Second quarter p3,320. 2 p 2 , 7 3 5 .4 .... Third quarter Fourth quarter .... NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; " p " . preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 4 1 . APRIL 1988 MX* OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued K R 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars Year and quarter (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued 238. Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Q 237. Services in current dollars 239. Services in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 240. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 241. Total in 1982 dollars 242. Fixed investment in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 243. Fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 894.4 910.4 918.4 929.3 841.2 847.6 853.5 855.7 1,297.3 1,329.2 1,363.3 1,400.3 1,130.5 1,142.8 1,155.7 1,172.5 638.6 648.4 628.6 650.8 632.1 645.7 623.2 643.3 617.3 629.9 631.0 648.3 612.7 628.4 628.9 644.9 936.8 934.3 940.0 946.3 868.8 880.0 879.8 880.3 1,425.2 1,445.1 1,469.5 1,492.4 1,181.2 1,184.7 1,192.2 1,201.1 683.4 679.4 660.8 660.2 674.4 665.6 645.0 631.0 645.1 651.9 657.3 656.6 639.1 637.6 638.8 645.4 969.9 982.1 986.4 993.1 883.2 879.0 875.7 874.6 1,527.7 1,552.6 1,588.1 1,616.5 1,216.9 1,223.1 1,238.1 1,245.6 699.9 702.6 707.4 760.2 671.8 673.7 681.9 723.1 648.2 662.3 684.5 690.8 624.2 634.7 657.3 662.6 p993.9 p874.2 pi,649.0 pi,257.7 p761.9 p738.4 p704.9 p680.5 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1987 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1988 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... • • mSt Year and quarter GROSS PRIVATE GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con. 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 260. Total in current dollars 261. Total in 1982 dollars 262. Federal Government in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 263. Federal Government in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 266. State and local government in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 267. State and local government in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 21.4 18.5 -2.4 2.5 19.5 17.3 -5.7 -1.6 784.1 800.5 832.8 857.0 703.4 712.1 738.6 753.7 336.3 38.3 27.5 3.5 -6.4 35.3 28.1 6.1 -14.4 846.9 867.2 878.5 886.3 737.6 751.6 757.2 771.8 356.7 51.6 40.3 22.9 69.4 47.6 39.0 24.6 60.5 896.2 917.1 929.0 948.8 759.6 766.7 771.7 788.9 366.9 p57.0 p57.9 p945.6 p768.3 308.4 310.7 332.5 345.3 447.8 461.1 470.9 479.0 395.0 401.4 406.1 408.4 322.1 330.6 332.6 344.6 490.2 498.8 507.3 517.7 415.5 421.0 424.6 427.1 388.9 327.3 332.6 336.3 347.6 529.3 537.6 546.9 559.9 432.3 434.1 435.4 441.3 p376.8 p325.3 p568.9 p442.9 339.4 361.9 378.0 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 368.4 371.2 368.6 1987 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 379.6 382.1 1988 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 4 1 , 42, and 43. licit APRIL 1988 81 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued NATIONAL INCOME FOREIGN TRADE Imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services Net exports of goods and services Year AND ITS COMPONENTS and quarter 250. Current 255. Constant 252. Current 256. Constant 253. Current 257. Constant dollars (1982) dollars dollars (1982) dollars dollars (1982) dollars 220. National in- 280. Compen- come in current sation of dollars employees (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) 1985 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 368.7 369.7 364. 360, 366 427.7 447.8 448.9 472.2 450.7 472.4 475.4 495.8 3,156.5 3,204.4 3,254.4 3,304.4 2,314.9 2,351.5 2,386.3 2,430.5 -123.0 -146.8 -161.6 -151.8 373.5 371.3 376.6 383.3 371.5 370.2 379.6 388.3 467.3 472.1 487.1 500.2 494.4 517.0 541.2 540.1 3,364.2 3,414.1 3,438.7 3,471.0 2,464.8 2,487.6 2,515.1 2,552.0 -112.2 -118.4 -123.7 -124.3 -135.2 -132.7 -138.4 -135.8 397.3 416.5 439.2 458.1 397.8 414.5 437.1 453,5 509.5 534.8 562.9 582.4 533.0 547.2 575.6 589.3 3,548.3 3,593.3 3,659.0 r3,743.5 2,589.9 2,623.4 2,663.5 2,713.5 p-115.4 p-132.2 p470.6 p464.6 p586.0 p596.8 (NA) p2,762.4 -51.5 -77.3 -84.7 -103.5 -81.0 -107.7 -114.9 -129.3 376.3 -93.8 -100.8 -110.5 -116.9 370.6 364.2 1986 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1987 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1988 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Contmued Year and quarter 282. Proprietors' 284. Rental income 286. Corporate income with IVA of persons with profits before tax and CCAdj' CCAdj1 with IVA and SAVING 288. Net interest 290. Gross saving 295. Business 292. Personal saving saving .CCAdj' (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) 1985 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 252.1 256.4 252.4 268.0 7.3 9.1 9.3 10.1 265.6 274.2 292.8 277.8 316.5 313.2 313.7 317.9 552.0 547.7 514.7 510.7 518.6 533.0 552.7 544.3 131.2 162.8 95.7 118.5 270.8 298.1 292.5 297.8 14.0 17.4 17.2 18.4 288.0 282.3 285.4 281.1 326.6 328.7 327.5 321.7 557.8 538.7 516.2 515.3 553.4 547.7 551.5 544.4 138.4 166.0 108.9 109.0 320.9 323.1 322.7 342.7 20.0 18.9 17.3 20.9 294.0 296.8 314.9 r313.0 323.6 331.1 340.6 353.3 554.3 551.3 559.3 r595.9 545.3 546.7 559.8 r562.6 138.4 93.2 88.8 155.7 p336.7 p21.1 (NA) p356.2 (NA) (NA) pl53.1 1986 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1987 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1988 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46. 1 82 IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Q j SAVING—Continued and SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL 293. Personal saving rate 298. Government surplus or deficit Year ^ J Percent of gross national product quarter 235. Personal consumption expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) INCOME (Percent) (Percent) 247. Change in business inventories 249. Residential 248. Nonresidential fixed investment ixed investment (Percent) (Percent) 251. Net exports of goods and services (Percent) (Percent) 1985 First quarter Second q u a r t e r Third quarter F o u r t h quarter .... .... -97.8 -148.1 -133.7 -152.1 4.8 5.7 3.4 4.1 65.0 65.5 65.9 65.8 11.0 10.9 11.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 -134.0 -175.0 -144.1 -138.1 4.7 5.5 3.6 3.6 65.6 65.7 66.5 66.7 10.6 10.3 10.2 10.3 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.3 -0.1 -2.2 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -129.5 -88.6 -89.3 r-122.3 4.4 3.0 2.8 4.8 66.1 66.2 66.6 65.6 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.5 -2.6 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 (NA) p4.6 p65.8 pl0.2 p4.9 pi.2 p-2.5 11.2 0.5 0.5 -0.1 0.1 -1.3 -1.9 -2.1 -2.5 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter F o u r t h quarter .... .... 0.9 0.7 0.1 1987 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1988 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter F o u r t h quarter .... .... [ H SHARES OFGNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued Percent of GNP-Continued Year and quarter 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services Percent of national income 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services (Percent) (Percent) 64. Compensation of 283. Proprietors' 285. Rental income employees income with IVA of persons with and CCAdj (Percent) x CCAdj' (Percent) (Percent) 287. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdjl 289. Net interest (Percent) (Percent) 1985 First quarter Second quarter .... Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 8.6 8.5 9.0 9.2 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.7 73.3 73.4 8.5 8.7 8.7 8.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 73.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.4 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 p8.1 pl2.2 8.0 8.0 7.8 8.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 8.4 8.6 9.0 8.4 10.0 72.9 8.0 8.7 73.1 8.5 73.5 8.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 8.6 8.3 8.3 8.1 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.3 73.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 8.3 8.3 8.6 72.5 9.0 9.0 8.8 9.2 0.6 r8.4 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 73.3 73.6 9.8 9.6 9.6 1986 First q u a r t e r Second q u a r t e r Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1987 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter F o u r t h quarter .... .... 73.0 72.8 1988 First quarter Second q u a r t e r T h i r d quarter F o u r t h quarter .... . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47. X IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. not APRIL 1988 83 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY j Q Implicit price deflator for gross national product Year and month 310. Index (1982-100) 310c. Change over 1-quarter spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) PRICE MOVEMENTS Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product 311. Index (1982 = 100) 311c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) Consumer price index for all urban consumers 320. Index © (1982-84 = 100) 320c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food 320c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 322. Index (1982-84=100) 322c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) 322c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 1986 112.9 April . . May June 113.7 July August September 114.7 October November December 11^9 109.6 109.3 108.8 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.6 -0.2 0.0 107.4 107.0 107.3 0.2 -0.4 0.3 3.0 2.6 1.9 1.9 108.6 108.9 109.5 -0.3 0.2 0.5 -0.5 0.4 1.7 107.6 108.0 108.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 3.4 5.9 6.1 2.3 109.5 109.7 110.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 2.6 2.8 2.2 109.2 110.1 110.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 5.8 5.8 5.8 1.8 110.3 110.4 110.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.7 4.1 4.4 110.7 111.1 111.3 0.2 ,0.4 0.2 5.0 3.7 3.3 4.2 111.2 111.6 112.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 5.0 5.1 5.3 111.9 112.1 112.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 3.6 4.0 4.7 4.0 112.7 113.1 113.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 4.4 4.5 4.1 112.7 113.3 113.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 3.4 3.2 4.0 3.2 113.8 114.4 115.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 3.9 3.7 3.6 113.8 113.9 114.5 -0.1 0.1 0.5 3.6 2.7 2.5 3.3 115.3 115.4 115.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 3.7 3.2 3.7 114.7 114.8 115.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 3.2 2.5 2.1 (NA) 115.7 116.0 116.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 115.6 115.3 115.7 0.3 -0.3 0.3 1.9 1.8 January February March 112.9 2.9 113'.4 3.6 114.1 0.7 114.6 1987 4.2 January February March 116.1 April May June 117.1 July August September 117.9 October November December 118.7 115.8 3.5 116.9 2.8 117.9 2.7 118.8 1988 January February March p2.4 pll9.4 (NA) April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49. Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued j M Producer Year 330. Index © and price index, all commodities 330c. Change over 1-month 1 month (1982 = 100) (Percent) Producer price index, crude materials tor turther processing Producer price index, industrial commodities 330c. Change over 6-month 335. Index © 335c. Change over 6-month 335c. Change over 1-month 1 1 spans © spans © PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued spans © (Ann. rate, percent) (1982 = 100) 331. Index 331c. Change over 1-month spans1 1 spans © (Ann. rate, percent) (Percent) (1982 = 100) (Percent) 331c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 1986 January 103.2 February 101.7 100.3 -0.4 -1.5 -1.4 -6.3 -6.5 -7.0 103.7 102.1 100.5 -0.4 -1.5 -1.6 -7.6 -7.9 -8.1 94.2 90.4 88.3 -1.2 -4.0 -2.3 -17.8 -17.4 -18.2 99.6 100.0 99.9 -0.7 0.4 -0.1 -7.2 -4.7 -1.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 -0.7 0.0 0.0 -9.2 -6.7 -3.4 85.4 86.8 86.2 -3.3 1.6 -0.7 -15.9 -8.2 -4.0 March April May June July August September 99.4. 99.3 99.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 98.8 98.6 98.8 -1.0 -0.2 0.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 86.4 86.6 86.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 5.0 1.4 0.9 October 99.7 99.8 99.7 0.3 0.1 -0.1 2.2 3.5 3.7 99.1 99.2 99.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 4.5 4.7 87.5 87.4 86.6 1.2 -0.1 -0.9 6.3 100.5 101.0 101.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 4.5 5.7 6.7 100.4 100.8 101.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 5.1 5.5 6.6 89.1 89.9 90.6 2.9 0.9 0.8 11.3 16.4 19.3 June 101.9 102.6 103.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 6.1 5.6 5.0 101.6 101.9 102.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 5.5 5.8 4.8 92.3 94.3 94.6 1.9 2.2 0.3 15.1 15.7 12.3 July August September 103.5 103.8 103.7 0.5 0.3 -0.1 4.4 3.1 2.1 103.1 103.7 103.5 0.7 0.6 -0.2 4.8 4.6 3.3 95.6 96.7 96.0 1.1 1.2 -0.7 rl.3 0.0 October 104.1 104.2 104.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 1.9 1.5 2.3 104.0 104.2 104.1 0.5 0.2 -0.1 2.3 1.4 2.3 96.1 r94.9 94.6 0.1 r-1.2 r-0.3 -4.1 -4.5 -3.9 104.5 104.6 104.9 0.4 0.1 0.3 104.3 104.4 104.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 93.6 94.5 94.1 -1.1 1.0 -0.4 November December 7.8 9.7 1987 January February March April May November December 8.4 1988 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. x Changes are centered within the spans: APRIL 1988 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. 85 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued ^ f l Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components Year and month 332. Index (1982 = 100) Producer price index, capital equipment 332c. Change over 6-month spans1 332c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Percent) PRICE MOVEMENTS-Contmued 333 Index 333c. Change over 1-month spans1 (1982 = 100) (Percent) Producer price index, finished consumer goods 333c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 334. Index 334c. Change over 1-month spans1 (1982 = 100) (Percent) 334c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 1986 102.3 101.1 99.9 -0.6 -1.2 -1.2 -6.5 -7.3 -8.0 108.6 108.7 108.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.9 1.7 2.0 104.5 102.6 101.2 -0.8 -1.8 -1.4 -6.8 -6.9 -7.8 April May June 99.0 98.8 98.7 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 -8.2 -6.0 -2.6 109.2 109.3 109.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 2.0 1.8 2.0 100.4 101.0 101.1 -0.8 0.6 0.1 -8.1 -3.7 -0.2 July August September 98.0 98.0 98.6 -0.7 0.0 0.6 -1.6 -1.0 -0.6 109.7 109.7 110.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.8 2.2 100.2 100.7 101.1 -0.9 0.5 0.4 2.0 0.8 0.6 October November December 98.2 98.3 98.4 -0.4 0.1 0.1 2.1 3.3 2.4 110.5 110.8 110.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.8 2.4 2.0 101.4 101.4 101.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.2 2.8 3.0 99.0 99.6 99.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 4.1 5.2 6.0 111.2 111.0 111.1 0.4 -0.2 0.1 1.6 1.3 1.1 101.8 102.1 102.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 3.8 4.4 4.6 April May June 100.2 100.8 101.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 5.9 5.7 5.9 111.4 111.5 111.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.7 1.6 2.5 103.3 103.6 103.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.6 4.4 4.1 July August September 101.9 102.4 102.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 6.1 5.6 5.2 111.6 111.9 112.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.6 104.1 104.3 104.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 rl.7 0.4 October November December 103.2 103.6 103.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 4.6 3.5 4.1 112.0 112.1 112.3 -0.4 0.1 0.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 104.5 rlO4.5 103.9 -0.2 rO.O r-0.6 0.4 -0.8 -0.2 104.2 104.2 104.8 0.3 0.0 0.6 112.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 104.3 103.9 104.6 0.4 -0.4 0.7 January February March 1987 January February March 2.3 1988 January February March 112.7 113.2 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1 Year and month Current-dollar earnings 340. Index 340c. Change over 1-month spans2 (1977 = 100) (Percent) Current-dollar compensation Real earnings 340c. Change over 6-month spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 341. Index 341c. Change over 1-month spans2 (1977 = 100) (Percent) 341c. Change over 6-month spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 345. Index (1977 = 100) 345c. Change over 1-quarter spans2 345c. Change over 4-quarter spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1986 January February March 167.5 168.2 168.5 -0.2 0.4 0.2 2.8 2.4 1.7 93.6 94.3 95.1 -0.5 0.7 0.8 2.8 3.1 2.2 179.3 April May June 168.5 168.9 169.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.8 1.5 1.5 95.4 95.4 95.2 0.4 0.0 -0.2 3.2 1.9 0.1 180.5 July August September 169.1 169.5 169.8 -0.1 0.3 0.1 2.0 2.8 2.2 95.1 95.2 95.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.3 0.1 181.8 October November December 170.2 171.2 171.1 0.3 0.6 -0.1 2.6 2.7 2.9 95.2 95.5 95.2 0.1 0.3 -0.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 183^6 January February March 171.2 171.8 172.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 2.9 2.0 2.2 94.6 94.6 94.4 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 -2.1 -3.2 -3.1 184*1 April May June 172.6 172.9 172.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 2.7 2.9 94.2 94.0 93.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -2.1 -1.9 -1.3 185.5 July August September 173.2 174.1 174.6 0.2 0.5 0.3 2.7 3.4 3.2 93.7 93.7 93.8 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -1.2 -0.3 -0.3 187.1 October November December 174.9 175.8 175.7 0.2 0.5 -0.1 r3.8 93.6 93.8 93.6 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 p-0.4 188.6 176.4 176.5 pl77.1 0.4 rO.l p0.4 93.7 r93.6 p93.6 0.0 -0.1 pO.O 3.9 3.6 2.8 3.4 2.9 2.7 4.0 2.8 1987 2.8 p2.9 1.1 2.9 3.0 2.*7 3.5 (NA) 3.3 1988 January February March (NA) (NA) April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. 1 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. 2 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. APRIL 1988 87 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued j R Negotiated wage and benefit decisions Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector—Continued Year and month 348. Average first-year changes © Real compensation 346. Index (1977 = 100) WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued 346c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 346c. Change over 4-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) Output per hour, all persons, bus ness sector 349. Average changes over life of contract @ (Ann. rate, percent) 370. Index (1977 = 100) 370c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 370c. Change over 4-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (1977 = 100) 1986 January February March 2.3 99.3 April May June 100.4 July August September 100.5 October November December 100.8 0.6 1.2 1.9 4.2 0.7 1.6 2.*1 1.2 0.4 1.3 2.4 "!:? 1H7.7 1.5 107.7 0.2 10 7 .' 5 0.4 107.*5 1.6 107.6 1.6 108.0 (NA) 109 .'l -0.3 109*6 2.7 1.3 0.6 109.7 0.7 0.5 5.8 109^5 -0.1 109.6 1987 January February March 99.8 April May June 99.3 July August September 99.3 October November December 99.2 -4.1 rl.l r2.1 -K2 -1.7 4.1 -i".6 -0.3 3.9 1.4 110.1 2.5 4.7 2.1 ni.-3 (NA) -0.4 0.5 109.7 3.4 2.4 -0.2 111-3 109.2 1988 January February March (NA) (NA) pi.7 pi.8 (NA) (NA) (NA) April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Q [ CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers Civilian labor force Year 441. Total and 442. Civilian Number unemployed employment month 37. Persons unemployed 444. Males 20 years and over (Thous.) (Thous.) 445. Females 20 years and over 446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) 116,751 116,951 117,183 108,904 108,524 108,853 7,847 8,427 8,330 3,521 3,766 3,778 2,920 3,180 3,109 1,406 1,481 117,334 117,481 118,112 108,961 109,037 109,671 8,373 8,444 8,441 3,724 3,836 3,791 118,115 118,150 118,345 109,837 110,035 110,047 8,278 8,115 8,298 118,424 118,671 118,576 110,194 110,457 110,657 118,978 119,230 119,246 (Thous.) 448. Number employed part time for economic reasons (Thous.) Civilian labor force participation rates 451. Males 20 years and over (Percent) 452. Females 20 years and over (Percent) 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Percent) 1986 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1,443 6,447 6,825 6,861 5,301 5,209 5,307 78.3 78.1 78.1 55.0 55.1 55.1 53.4 54.5 54.9 3,102 3,116 3,133 1,547 1,492 1,517 6,814 6,926 6,792 5,564 5,600 5,381 78.0 78.0 78.2 55.2 55.3 55.7 55.5 55.1 55.4 3,820 3,661 3,831 3,025 3,005 2,991 1,433 1,449 1,476 6,691 6,553 6,792 5,149 5,288 5,337 78.1 77.9 78.1 55.7 55.8 55.7 54.6 54.9 54.9 8,230 8,214 7,919 3,817 3,807 3,728 3,007 2,971 2,826 1,406 1,436 1,365 6,704 6,672 6,481 5,438 5,270 5,324 77.9 78.2 78.3 55.8 55.8 55.6 54.9 54.4 53.4 111,014 111,344 111,455 7,964 7,886 7,791 3,691 3,606 3,553 2,877 2,858 2,832 1,396 1,422 1,406 6,473 6,397 6,248 5,211 5,458 5,180 78.2 78.2 78.1 55.8 55.9 55.9 54.3 54.7 54.3 119,363 119,907 119,608 111,806 112,334 112,300 7,557 7,573 7,308 3,454 3,456 3,422 2,733 2,700 2,634 1,370 1,417 1,252 6,083 6,053 6,000 5,104 5,058 4,979 78.1 78.2 78.0 56.0 56.2 56.2 54.2 55.2 53.6 119,890 120,306 119,963 112,639 113,050 112,872 7,251 7,256 7,091 3,323 3,258 3,118 2,680 2,661 2,671 1,248 1,337 1,302 5,852 5,812 5,636 5,154 5,016 4,986 78.0 77.9 77.9 56.3 56.3 56.2 54.0 56.3 54.4 7,177 7,090 6,978 3,174 3,135 3,063 2,615 2,620 2,611 1,388 1,335 1,304 5,725 5,684 5,601 5,067 5,241 5,004 78.0 78.0 77.8 56.4 56.5 56.6 55.1 54.8 55.5 7,046 6,938 6,801 3,154 3,071 3,089 2,581 2,635 2,411 1,312 1,232 1,301 5,603 5,549 5,498 5,145 5,254 5,106 77.9 78.2 77.9 56.7 56.8 56.6 56.0 54.9 53.9 1987 January February March April May June July August September November 120,387 120,594 December 120,722 113,210 113,504 113,744 121,175 121,348 120,903 114,129 114,409 114,103 October 1988 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 5 1 . APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Q | State and local governmentx "ederal Governmen Year and 500. Surplus or deficit 501. Receipts Q RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES 502. Expenditures 510. Surplus or deficit 511. Receipts Advance measures of defense activity 512. Expenditures month (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) DEFENSE INDICATORS (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (Mil. dol.) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) 1986 January February -196.1 807.6 1,003.7 62.1 608.1 546.1 28,411 30,247 30,969 12,843 9,715 13,822 185,822 188,008 190,756 8,502 9,193 12,214 -23CK2 816^9 1,047.1 55! i 6li'5 556.4 29,758 30,267 33,056 13,136 11,052 12,949 188,903 189,004 193,207 8,071 9,036 8,314 -203.7 832.4 1,036.1 59.6 626*2 566.7 31,199 29,968 30,678 13,810 11,432 12,315 196,185 198,635 199,295 10,062 7,900 10,304 -188.7 852.5 l,04K2 50.6 629.1 578.5 28,383 30,341 26,583 9,450 11,866 11,581 198,408 198,337 197,769 10,031 7,738 -170.5 879^3 1,049.8 41.0 632^1 591 - i 25,911 34,669 28,986 10,617 12,546 12,167 196,585 199,440 199,308 r5,813 r7,344 r9,583 -139.2 922.9 1,062.1 50.6 651.3 600.7 33,794 32,801 30,475 12,138 12,103 12,748 200,411 202,504 204,177 rlO,288 9,441 10,577 -135.8 923.0 1,058.8 46.5 657.6 611.1 31,867 32,619 34,065 13,667 12,881 13,609 207,148 209,556 215,074 9,923 9,521 9,112 r-160.2 r937.6 l,097.*8 r37.9 r663.5 625 *6 29,233 30,794 24,532 10,613 9,383 11,912 212,355 212,086 205,974 10,001 9,739 9,048 pi,091!9 (NA) (NA) p635!4 31,157 p33,243 (NA) 7,871 pll,080 (NA) 208,366 p210,637 (NA) r9,104 r8,590 p8,336 March April May June July August September October November December 7,827 1987 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1988 January February (NA) March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53. 1 Based on national income and product accounts. 90 APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Q j DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continue j National defense Intermediate and final measures of defense activity Year 557. and industrial month Index of production, defense and 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products 580. Defense Department net outlays, military 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products purchases 570. Employment, defense products industries space equipment Defense Department personnel 577. Military on active duty (u) 578. Civilian, direct hire employment 564. Federal defense pur- goods and chases as a services, percent of national GNP defense (Ann. (1977 = 100) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) 565. National purchases of rate, bil. dol.) (Percent) 1986 January 178.9 February 178.0 178.6 31,787 31,471 32,467 160,175 161,009 164,969 20,152 21,586 23,342 7,779 8,359 8,254 1,570 1,572 1,572 2,157 2,160 2,160 1,103 1,087 1,084 266.6 6.4 179.8 180.2 180.7 32,962 33,329 33,549 164,580 164,951 164,147 22,101 22,921 21,954 8,460 8,665 9,118 1,582 1,589 1,566 2,150 2,150 2,143 1,081 1,072 1,060 278^2 6*6 182.4 183.7 184.6 33,618 33,810 34,206 165,201 164,505 165,918 22,538 21,714 23,886 9,008 8,596 8,891 1,594 1,592 1,595 2,150 2,161 2,169 1,059 1,052 1,072 287*6 6." 7 185.6 185.5 186.2 34,482 34,330 34,005 164,584 164,887 162,098 22,324 21,168 22,512 9,161 9,728 10,527 1,597 1,597 1,597 2,177 2,181 2,178 1,069 1,063 1,059 279.0 6.5 187.3 188.9 188.6 34,240 r34,332 34,093 159,557 rl58,477 rl58,456 22,243 24,096 23,259 r8,354 r8,424 r9,604 1,600 1,599 1,597 2,179 2,172 2,168 1,061 1,067 1,070 287.5 6.6 189.2 189.3 188.6 34,716 34,866 34,849 159,984 160,188 161,328 23,593 22,760 24,046 8,760 9,237 9,437 1,594 1,596 1,594 2,158 2,153 2,151 1,072 1,068 1,070 294*5 6.6 June July August September 188.7 189.1 189.8 35,599 36,065 36,311 162,345 163,071 162,659 22,858 24,340 21,513 8,906 8,795 9,524 1,596 1 ,598 1,597 2,158 2,167 2,174 1,074 1,076 1,090 299*0 6.*6 190.3 188.7 rl88.9 36,868 37,609 37,026 163,526 164,025 162,979 25,816 21,276 26,329 9,134 9,240 10,094 1,599 1,598 1,600 2,172 2,174 2,167 1,090 1,087 1 ,083 299.8 6.5 r190.1 rl90.3 pl89.8 r37,103 r37,302 (NA) rl63,650 rl63,740 pl62,466 20,786 r23,441 p23,717 r8,433 r8,500 p9,610 rl,606 1,604 (NA) 2,166 r2,162 p2,143 p297.7 p6.4 March April May June July August September October November December 1987 January February March April May October November December 1988 January February March pi,077 (NA) April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. APRIL 1988 91 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Q 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (u) 604. Exports ot domestic agricultural products | MERCHANDISE TRADE 612. General imports © 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products 616. Imports of automobiles and parts Year and month (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 1986 17,041 17,401 18,557 2,320 2,283 2,135 3,854 4,294 3,740 30,090 27,521 29,403 4,978 4,254 3,578 5,044 5,378 5,018 18,001 18,270 19,092 2,043 1,960 1,819 3,981 3,644 3,582 30,898 30,034 30,942 2,084 2,718 2,731 5,044 5,054 5,535 17,346 16,895 17,530 2,062 2,231 2,111 3,585 4,091 3,812 31,848 29,482 30,808 2,483 2,225 2,435 6,242 6,280 4,909 19,562 18,411 18,523 2,447 2,204 2,352 3,932 4,138 4,227 32,771 32,413 29,854 2,155 2,788 2,299 5,790 7,156 5,483 February 16,753 19,359 March 21,775 1,926 2,047 2,157 3,452 4,404 4,098 27,466 32,307 33,197 2,269 3,598 3,513 4,882 6,322 5,329 April 20,496 20,781 21,126 2,234 2,410 2,445 4,122 4,176 4,338 31,983 33,313 35,266 2,842 3,685 3,375 5,516 6,093 5,823 21,005 20,221 20,985 2,956 2,520 2,625 4,260 4,420 4,717 35,844 34,320 33,573 4,125 4,574 3,439 5,800 6,008 5,307 21,752 23,798 24,801 2,593 2,409 2,472 4,407 5,371 5,371 37,714 35,474 35,444 3,780 3,292 3,158 6,776 6,342 6,560 22,330 23,559 (NA) 2,634 2,936 (NA) (NA) 33,218 35,818 (NA) (NA) (NA) January February March April May June July August September October November December 1987 January May June July August September October November December 1988 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56. 92 APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Q | GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS) Merchandise, adjustedx Goods and services Year 667. Balance 669. Imports 668. Exports 622. Balance 618. Exports Income on investment 620. Imports 651. U.S. investment abroad and month (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 652. Foreign investment in the United States (Mil. dol.) 1986 January February -30,019 92,134 122,153 -34,978 53,878 88,856 24,076 17,651 -29,588 93,540 123,128 -33,651 56,928 90,579 22,013 17,426 -32,249 93,241 125,490 -37,115 56,534 93,649 21,333 15,994 -33,839 93,891 127,730 -38,595 57 , 0 2 1 95,616 20,787 16,295 -33,834 98,728 132,562 -38,920 56,769 95,689 24,963 19,450 -38,274 100,070 138,344 -39,74? 59,875 99,617 22,464 20,875 -40,517 105,662 146,179 -40,365 65,110 105,475 22,689 22,395 p-34,589 pll5,662 pl50,25i P-40J74 p69,060 plO9,234 p29,657 p22,569 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) March April May June July August September October November December 1987 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1988 January February March April May June Juiy August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. 1 Balance of payments basis: Hxcludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts of Defense purchases (imports). APRIL 1988 (exports) and Department 93 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Q j Year and month 47. United States, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 721. OECD1 European countries, index of industrial production 728. Japan, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) (1977 = 100) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 725. West 726. France, index of industrial production Germany, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 727. Italy, index of industrial production 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) (1977 = 100) (1977 = 100) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 1986 January February March 126.4 125.5 123.9 112 113 112 144.6 144.8 144.8 113 113 113 107 105 105 108 110 109 108.4 110.9 113.8 127.6 128.1 125.5 April May June 124.7 124.3 124.1 115 111 114 144.4 144.2 144.5 117 112 116 109 104 108 111 109 109 114.9 108.7 113.9 128.9 126.9 125.5 July August September 124.8 124.9 124.5 115 114 114 144.2 141.9 145.8 117 114 114 109 109 109 111 111 111 111.1 110.0 109.8 126.8 125.6 126.3 October November December 125.3 125.7 126.8 114 114 113 143.8 141.9 rl42.0 114 114 112 109 107 107 111 111 rllO 111.0 112.2 111.1 126.2 126.2 128.5 January February March 126.2 127.1 127.4 112 115 115 rl40.9 rl40.0 rl42.1 111 rll4 113 105 109 109 rllO rll2 rll2 rill.8 rll5.2 rll7.6 128.0 129.2 129.9 April May June 127.4 128.2 129.1 115 116 rll6 rl40.4 rl37.9 rl44.0 114 116 114 108 110 111 rll2 113 rll3 rll5.5 rll9.7 rll6.2 129.9 130.7 132.0 July August September 130.6 131.2 131.0 rll5 rll6 116 rl45.5 rl43.9 rl48.2 rll2 118 116 110 110 111 rll3 115 114 rll5.6 rlll.O rll5.1 131.8 134.2 135.0 October November December 132.5 133.2 rl33.9 117 117 pll7 rl50.8 rl5O.l 153.0 116 116 117 rllO 111 112 rll5 115 115 rl20.1 rll8.7 114.0 rl35.8 rl36.7 rl37.2 rl34.4 134.4 pl34.6 (NA) pl54.0 (NA) pll7 (NA) pll2 (NA) pll5 (NA) pl24.0 (NA) pl37.4 (NA) 1987 1988 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on | Graphs of these series are shown on page 58. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 94 APRIL 1988 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Q j United States Year 320. Index © West Germany Japan 320c. Change 738. Index © 738c. Change and over 6-month over 6-month month 1 1 spans spans percent) 735. Index © (1982-84 = 100) France 735c. Change 736. Index © over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (1982-84 = 100) CONSUMER PRICES percent) (Ann. rate, (1982-84 = 100) percent) (1982-84 = 100) United H ngdom 736c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 732. Index© 732c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, (1982-84 = 100) percent) 1986 109.6 109.3 108.8 0.6 -0.2 0.0 105.0 104.9 104.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 105.5 105.2 104.9 -0.4 -0.8 -1.3 116.1 115.9 116.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 113.1 113.5 113.7 3.2 2.9 1.8 June 108.6 108.9 109.5 -0.5 0.4 1.7 105.1 105.4 104.9 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 104.9 104.9 105.0 -1.9 -1.1 -0.6 116.6 116.9 117.2 1.6 2.4 3.3 114.8 115.0 114.9 1.1 1.1 2.1 July August September 109.5 109.7 110.2 2.6 2.8 2.2 104.6 104.4 104.9 -1.7 -0.4 -0.6 104.5 104.2 104.4 -1.1 -1.5 -0.8 117.4 117.5 118.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 114.6 114.9 115.5 2.8 4.2 5.9 October 110.3 110.4 110.5 3.7 4.1 4.4 105.0 104.5 104.3 -1.9 -2.3 -0.2 104.1 104.0 104.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 118.2 118.4 118.5 4.5 4.3 3.6 115.7 116.7 117.1 6.8 6.9 5.6 111.2 111.6 112.1 5.0 5.1 5.3 103.9 103.9 104.3 2.3 0.4 1.3 104.6 104.7 104.7 1.2 1.5 1.2 119.6 119.8 120.0 4.1 4.1 3.4 117.5 118.0 118.2 5.4 3.8 2.4 112.7 113.1 113.5 4.4 4.5 4.1 105.2 105.4 105.2 2.1 3.3 1.9 104.9 105.0 105.2 1.7 1.7 1.0 120.6 120.9 121.1 2.4 2.7 2.5 119.6 119.7 119.7 2.2 2.0 2.7 113.8 114.4 115.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 104.7 104.8 105.7 -0.9 1.0 0.0 105.2 105.1 104.9 0.8 0.4 0.8 121.4 121.7 121.7 2.3 2.3 2.8 119.6 120.0 120.3 3.7 4.6 4.8 115.3 115.4 115.4 3.7 3.2 3.7 105.7 105.2 105.1 0.0 -1.7 (NA) 105.0 105.0 105.2 -0.2 0.0 1.0 122.0 122.2 122.2 2.2 2.1 (NA) 120.9 121.5 121.4 4.2 4.2 4.0 January February March April May November December 1987 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1988 115.7 116.0 116.5 January February March 104.8 104.6 (NA) 105.4 105.6 105.7 122.4 122.7 (NA) 121.4 121.9 122.3 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. APRIL 1988 95 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued I £ | CONSUMER PRICES—Continued Italy Year and month 737. Index © (1982-84 = 100) Q Canada 737c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 733. Index © (1982-84 = 100) 733c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) STOCK PRICES 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © 748. Japan, index of stock prices © 745. West Germany, index of stock prices © 746. France, index of stock prices © 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices @ 747. Italy, index of stock prices © 743. Canada, index of stock prices © (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) 1986 January February March 125.9 126.8 127.2 6.8 6.6 5.3 111.4 111.8 112.1 4.4 4.8 2.9 226.5 238.6 252.7 936.5 964.8 1,052.8 327.1 320.8 329.6 438.3 468.6 514.8 647.8 690.0 755.0 303.8 343.9 430.2 321.2 322.7 344.3 April May June 127.6 128.1 128.6 5.5 5.5 4.8 112.2 112.8 112.9 3.2 3.6 3.6 258.9 259.4 266.8 1,116.7 1,144.6 1,203.9 345.8 318.7 313.8 590.3 600.2 537.2 780.6 756.2 764.9 512.3 580.0 485.1 347.9 352.8 348.6 July August September 128.6 128.8 129.2 4.0 3.3 3.4 113.8 114.1 114.1 4.5 4.5 5.4 261.3 266.5 259.2 1,262.7 1,354.5 1,361.4 293.2 316.3 327.2 580.0 605.1 603.4 755.5 750.0 767.2 483.2 562.7 554.7 331.7 342.2 336.6 October November December 129.9 130.4 130.8 3.9 3.0 3.7 114.7 115.3 115.5 4.3 4.1 4.8 258.2 266.6 270.4 1,280.3 1,297.0 1,406.4 322.1 325.2 331.9 609.7 616.6 652.2 750.7 774.1 779.4 557.1 546.3 514.8 343.4 344.3 346.5 January February March 131.6 132.1 132.6 4.2 4.7 4.5 115.8 116.3 116.8 4.4 4.7 4.2 287.7 305.6 318.1 1,492.7 1,577.3 1,675.5 308.8 285.2 288.5 642.1 660.1 708.1 841.0 917.9 973.1 526.7 502.9 501.9 378.4 395.4 422.5 April May June 132.9 133.4 133.9 4.8 5.9 6.5 117.3 118.0 118.3 5.1 5.2 4.7 314.7 314.5 327.8 1,856.7 1,937.3 1,965.7 304.2 302.3 313.7 725.9 703.6 664.6 957.2 1,042.0 1,098.5 533.2 533.4 P521.5 420.0 416.4 422.6 July August September 134.3 134.6 135.6 6.8 6.4 5.5 119.2 119.3 119.3 4.5 3.8 4.1 337.3 358.3 346.6 1,806.9 1,902.6 1,888.0 327.7 340.7 330.0 691.9 704.9 729.8 1,155.7 1,102.2 1,121.9 p508.1 p469.8 p459.6 455.4 451.3 440.9 October November December 136.8 137.2 137.4 5.1 4.0 3.4 119.7 120.2 120.3 3.1 2.9 3.5 304.8 266.5 262.1 1,831.8 1,676.8 1,654.9 306.1 234.2 224.2 632.8 508.5 423.5 1,028.6 795.0 810.9 p460.1 p379.8 p375.0 341.2 336.5 357.1 272.5 280.8 289.1 pi,660.3 pi,771.4 rpl,874.2 213.0 223.3 rp237.4 465.0 p501.1 rp520.0 864.2 859.2 rp889.0 p534.5 p509.2 rp569.5 345.4 362.1 374.4 p287.5 pi,951.5 p235.5 p517.3 p876.6 p576.5 p381.2 f. . 1987 1988 January February March 138.1 138.5 139.1 120.5 121.0 121.6 April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. 96 APRIL 1988 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Jan. Year Feb. Mar. MANUFACTURERS 1953. .. 1954. .. 1955 . . . 1956 . . . 1957 . . . 1958. .. 1959 ... 1960... 1961. . . 1962. .. 1963. . . 1964. . . 1965... 1966 . . . 1967. .. 1968. . . 1969. . . 1970... 197 1. . . 1972. . . 1973... 1974. . . 1975 ... 1976.. . 1977. . . 1978. . . 1979... 1980. . . 1981. . . 1982... 1983. . . 1984... 1985... 1986. . . 1987... 14.45 9.99 3.48 5.72 5 . 16 2.94 5.68 5.54 4 . 09 .7.46 8.19 0.40 2 . 12 5.51 14.21 0.31 3.92 4.61 5.64 2 .47 6.97 .5.97 .4.68 .7.81 7 .41 9.26 7.92 9 .85 2 .32 40.60 5.7 1 1.23 5.53 6.73 3.6 1 8.91 83.46 7.30 9.99 7.69 50.10 33.06 -1.15 ^5.32 8.24 1.27 6.14 8.98 9 .02 9.90 7.50 100.23 98.44 101.26 0.03 2 .44 5.80 t0.47 -7 . 7 2 S6.45 )6 . 4 0 11.65 S3.20 13 . 0 5 13.34 9.72 4.96 5.04 5.14 2.50 16.65 5.2 1 4 .49 7.05 9.01 9.75 2 .76 6 .83 50.08 :7 . 4 3 !9 . 7 9 13.21 • 2.69 •5.20 58.47 .68 S8.66 8.54 84.05 79.2 1 83.25 81.50 80.87 105.44 97.45 100.94 Apr. May June 1963. . . 1964. . . 1965. . . 1966. . . 1967... 1968... 1969.. . 1970. . . 1971... 1972. . . 1973.. . 1974... 1975. . . 1976. . . 1977. . . 1978... 1979. . . 1980. . . 1981... 1982 . . . 1983... 1984... 1985 . . . 1986... 1987 . . . 1953. .. 1954. .. 1955... 1956. .. 1957. . . 8. . . 9. . . 0. . . 1. . . 2. . . 3. . . 4. . . 5 ... 6. . . 7 ... 8. . . 9. .. 0. . . 1 ... 2... 3. . . 4. . . 5 ... 6... 7. .. 1978... 9. .. 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983. . . 1984... 1985 . . . 1986... 1987.. . 9.96 40.47 5.74 15.78 3.58 5 . 34 4.73 4.72 7.01 7.70 8.90 0.84 4.54 5 .64 6.39 9 .03 9.7 1 6 . 12 1 .25 7 .87 6 .42 5.73 2.54 4.59 5.96 4.89 7.59 8.62 8.66 2 . 04 5.15 5 .54 8.6 1 9.14 9.55 9 .04 1.92 9 .30 43 .59 45.91 42.92 37 .30 49 .72 45 .76 46 .5 1 50.32 55.85 61.68 68.19 79. 05 77.42 82.29 90.46 82.68 87.16 102.37 127.48 143.23 122.12 152.78 180.75 2 14.52 238.47 2 16.45 261.2 1 15.74 14.78 13.64 13.63 16 . 0 4 15.95 16.30 17.82 18.93 21.15 23.74 27.25 27.57 31 . 5 2 29.12 33 . 6 6 27.31 29.80 27.80 28.75 34.42 27.41 29.14 28. 02 29.29 34.29 27.11 29.60 27.68 29.6 1 34.21 27 . 4 4 29.39 26.90 29.56 34.92 28.64 30.67 27 . 8 3 30.66 36.91 15.74 14 . 8 4 12 .96 14.13 15.77 14.54 16 . 32 17.82 18.98 20.43 23.85 25.99 25.74 30.04 30.13 25.43 30.00 36.67 45 .96 40.86 50.42 59 . 36 7 1.16 78.16 75.61 87 .35 80.89 83.48 97 .24 96.25 98.18 48.83 40.74 51.01 59.71 71.58 80.43 69.38 86 . 9 7 77 . 4 4 82.57 99 . 4 5 98.26 97.30 48.44 40.52 51.35 6 1.68 7 1.78 79.88 7 1.46 49 . 6 5 43 . 8 8 53.45 60.63 70.47 78.30 78.14 87.17 50.90 43 . 2 7 51.76 61.44 73.85 76 . 8 2 75.95 85.14 48.74 43 . 9 8 52.16 62.70 74.77 78.84 82 . 0 9 83.9 1 45.96 43 . 3 2 52.38 64.95 78.43 78.85 84.27 79.50 5.58 4.35 4.29 4. 14 9.70 8.46 3.67 9.58 .49 4.27 56 .86 7.41 8.29 9 . 09 86.31 76.99 136.2 120.17 142 .93 171.84 198.55 244.61 245.87 248.82 88 . 9 4 97 . 0 8 102.64 97.90 86 . 8 2 99.60 98.44 98.46 101.20 96.30 91.50 96.49 101.74 102.95 96.60 95.96 101.7 1 5.29 9.77 5.59 99.64 100.25 104. 14 105 .68 239.64 301.81 294.87 301.22 254.99 293.77 297.15 293.38 9.27 78.95 80.31 92 . 4 4 93.55 92 . 6 3 80.63 75.98 96.01 92 . 8 7 94.73 82.16 79,36 100.61 91.84 94.33 48.69 0.62 3.67 35.97 0.27 4.43 5.66 9.92 6.02 0.53 7.41 5.54 9 .83 5.12 2.52 7.65 0 . 33 8.10 3 .64 1 . 37 9.62 81.59 89.80 99 . 2 4 98.56 86.02 81.38 81 .84 92.6 1 90.63 91.58 .91 .63 . 11 .86 '.29 .28 '.79 .00 100.66 78.75 90.88 77.67 80.64 94.80 92 . 2 6 90.68 25« .22 179.61 184.89 169.04 159.64 192 .24 183.69 189.22 208.66 224.87 248. 15 279.37 313.75 309 .66 337.30 358.84 328.72 359 .90 420.84 512.64 561.78 505.36 616.61 733.86 868.58 953.44 952.75 1002 .32 265.20 294.55 301.38 298.93 291.53 295.98 301.44 305.64 1051 .36 1186.11 1194.84 1 199. 17 .05 .29 .13 .37 TOTAL FOR PERIOD 5 1.00 48.25 43.91 40.56 50.04 46 . 0 5 47.18 50.18 54.48 61.03 66 . 5 6 76 . 4 7 75.10 74.29 76 . 0 8 69.88 70.41 79.37 93 . 2 2 91.56 6 8 . 80 82 . 16 92.48 98.34 34.43 41 . 16 52.64 46 .63 41 .84 41.31 47.60 hi .11 48.64 53.35 56.50 62.40 69.22 77.41 7 1.40 77 . 00 35 .43 44.5 1 52.30 46 . 50 39.76 42.70 46 .79 43.42 48.85 53.37 56.48 60.08 69.54 73.84 7 1.49 35 .26 39.10 52.11 49 . 30 41.52 46 . 2 2 43.72 4 4 . 06 50.93 53.01 56.25 61.29 7 1.35 72.62 72.90 35.33 4.07 4.20 9.16 38.23 3 .82 7 . 37 152.18 106.48 147.77 148.30 142.70 115.59 147.74 138.21 129.52 156.65 168.26 178.76 197.59 226 .29 208.92 144.7 106.6 150.3 147 . 132. 113. 148. 135. 138. 150.68 167.5 182.47 199.60 226.30 218.06 116.40 114.96 154.43 150.51 126.22 122.7 1 138.76 140.36 145.00 155.32 168.53 186 . 14 205.03 225.75 2 16.64 106.02 127.68 158.6 1 144 .96 119.51 132.74 137.88 132.06 152.45 162.13 168.27 186.18 214.00 218.61 223.21 235.01 66.91 69.88 80.46 92.52 92.21 73.22 82 . 0 3 90. 69. 07 72 .48 84.65 92 .83 87 .04 73.92 81.89 62 .48 70.92 84.30 96.18 81 .06 72.20 81.7 1 6 4 . 19 73.70 86 .66 98.48 79.69 73.43 84.31 1.36 4.93 9.72 2 .02 2.16 2.69 7.60 2 10.44 218.86 229.79 280.87 280.54 206.04 233.12 207.20 209.85 237.33 280.80 277.19 2 07 . 7 1 246.03 205 . 0 1 212.86 2 4 4 . 12 278.21 27 1 . 0 2 22 1 . 5 2 249.04 295 .77 80.29 90.23 77.28 86.60 92.37 96.2 0 91.15 87 .02 90.05 77.73 84.37 94.77 9 2.26 92.72 83 . 9 2 87.50 73.33 84.27 93.50 94.75 89.50 100.23 33.00 44.77 33.00 44.43 34.69 45.32 33.17 46 . 16 34 . 15 44.77 33.49 45.99 39.98 40.58 45.62 49 .39 50.80 57.65 64.49 59.02 64.49 67.94 62 . 06 63.06 69.76 83.16 33.32 44.88 39.75 41.52 42 .90 50.04 52.83 56.67 62.16 59.34 63.50 67.59 61.7 1 63.83 69.94 80.32 58.44 72.52 81.23 83.26 87.81 75.18 75.55 69.67 70.43 81.01 78.5 1 79. 16 6 1 .30 72.62 80 . 09 87 . 0 6 84.18 69.96 77.60 69.12 71.54 81.38 78.64 81 . 0 7 34.38 43.48 40.01 42.88 44 . 64 49 . 0 0 52.15 56.91 6 1.80 60.42 64.74 67.45 62.29 63.06 70.36 81 . 2 9 79.08 6 1.90 73.58 79.94 85 . 9 4 86.23 66.74 77.14 69.03 73.01 81.11 79.32 36 . 4 2 43 . 7 7 40.69 4 4 . 01 43.83 47 .5 0 52.52 57.37 62 . 3 4 60.84 64.69 67.18 63.66 62.48 7 1.72 80.35 78.40 62 . 8 3 74.01 81.23 85 . 3 3 84.47 66.77 77.40 68.56 74.45 78.96 78.29 80.38 37 .66 43 .03 41 .03 42.55 45.32 49 .46 54.36 58.76 6 1.21 60.46 63.80 68.69 61 . 6 6 64.22 7 1.21 79.94 76 . 2 4 66 . 4 3 74.71 80.34 83 . 8 6 82.52 69.66 7 6 . 12 68.56 75.13 80.91 78.23 79.18 38.42 40.50 40.98 44.28 45 . 8 8 47 , 7 8 52.69 57 . 4 2 6 1 .49 63.13 62 . 2 7 67.01 6 1.11 63.52 73.7 1 79.63 74.70 66 . 4 0 73.30 80.84 86 . 0 0 80.42 70.67 73 . 4 7 66.52 76.27 80.20 78.96 80 . 0 4 series contains revisions 104.57 105.14 281.31 296 .58 2 .61 281.67 245 .06 261.14 198.03 219.55 260.68 286.68 232 .91 218.32 253.62 2 8 3.95 312.45 281.66 274.86 9.26 5.99 4.94 7.33 7.58 241.74 235.65 289.06 278.26 281.69 2 36. 3 3 249 .08 279.78 279.09 273.41 227 .20 257 .30 279.81 282 .63 277.81 226 . 34 281.48 280.73 281.90 282 .38 1 2.74 90.65 80.63 7 1.70 91.98 94.57 89.42 92.32 91.60 81 . 0 4 7 5 . 38 93.5 1 91.22 95.15 92.48 90.20 85 . 8 9 7 6 . 14 88.66 91.54 95.62 95.59 32 .86 46 .00 This 98 .5 47 .90 46.35 39.08 44 . 06 46 .46 4 4 . 15 50.92 5 4 . 14 56 .54 63.31 73.54 77.17 80.74 88.2 1 89 . 39 80.59 93 . 17 113.84 133.67 133.03 131.94 163.53 196.50 236.42 236.40 254 .25 236.07 38.49 36.81 5 0 . 83 56 . 4 6 43 . 0 5 4i.24 44.31 47.11 49.29 50.99 55 . 73 59.78 67.67 73.48 73.38 73.97 99.53 Annual 29 . 8 9 5 .76 7 .26 1.10 0.37 6 .76 7 . 06 8.53 43 . 4 8 36.99 50.96 47 . 4 2 41.33 4 0 . 16 46 . 8 5 45 . 4 8 47 .07 50.98 56 . 3 0 63.96 68.14 7 4 . 86 7 1 .86 73 .26 77.08 69.03 70.50 79.01 92 .86 91.77 74.38 85.12 89.95 96.01 NEW ORDERS IN 1982 DOLLARS, CONSUMER GOODS AND MATERIALS (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) This series contains revisions beginning with 1982. 'isions beginning with 1948. 45 . 3 45 .9 37 .9 49 .3 46 .7 43. 2 52.3 56.0 DOLLARS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 2 DOLLARS) 46.83 IV Q TOTAL FOR PERIOD 15 . 0 4 17.73 14.03 13.57 14.93 15.83 16.5 1 17.03 18.67 20.2 1 23.2 1 25.86 52.12 48.84 46 . 8 8 3 8 . 11 49.84 44.99 43.38 51.05 57.10 58.60 66.73 77.55 68.87 78.96 78.74 69.28 72.30 77.22 95.29 91.69 65.66 8C.64 8 9 . 15 96 . 39 107.07 90.32 9.94 14.98 14.75 13.43 13.17 15.79 15.28 15.72 17.03 18.86 2 1.62 23.37 26.28 8.52 7.74 8.58 38.02 0.82 7 .25 3.94 53.34 6.52 9.43 5.81 4.8 0 0.26 4.79 8.93 0.29 3.40 6 .87 13.10 (3.63 .9.29 7.84 86 . 4 5 94.05 104.95 94.97 82.52 86.08 9.99 Q 9.7 1 47.13 5 1.72 47 . 2 4 39.46 47.08 45.97 42.20 52.26 54.64 60.73 65.05 73.94 69.79 75.31 77 . 4 0 70.87 7 3 . 16 75.70 92.48 95 . 2 2 7 1. 09 74.64 87 . 14 90.87 102 . 4 8 96.38 60. 71 . Dec. 10.89 9.26 3 5.69 45.2 5 4 2.40 38. 04 47 .01 47 .08 51.99 57.22 60.98 59.93 64.66 68.24 63.68 6 5.86 68.86 82.52 79.77 61 . 08 69. 34 78.34 80.79 88.66 81.2 1 73.40 65.95 68.95 81.78 81 .45 81.63 Nov. 12.35 48.16 32 . 42. Oct. INDUSTRIES 1 13.20 10. 14.84 15.06 14,23 13.30 16.86 15.52 15.80 16.76 1-8.2 0 20.63 22 .76 26.76 1.49 31.11 43 .31 42.9 7 Sept. 13.58 9.75 14.5 1 15.16 14.58 12.20 16 . 0 2 15.22 15.46 1 6 . 89 18.99 20.59 22 . 4 4 26.00 52.53 8. MANUFACTURERS Aug. 13.69 10.17 14.24 15.69 14.11 11.80 16.84 15 . 0 2 15.25 16.67 18.66 20.46 22 . 9 9 26.29 7. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS IN 198 (BILLIONS 0 1953 ... 1954... 1955 . . . 1956.. . 1957.. . 1958. . . 1959... 1960... 1961 . . . 1962 . . . July NEW ORDERS IN CURRENT D O L L A R S , DURABLE GOODS (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 5 19.38 455.73 6 11.12 591.37 521.01 484.7 7 572.38 546 .26 56 5,9 5 624.78 672.59 733.55 816.22 896.95 866 .83 911.93 932.81 820.68 861.12 97 1.92 1126 .56 1061.66 853.59 981.81 1090.86 1 186 . 1 1 1181.34 1062.73 1040.69 931.61 1023.51 1129.38 1121.88 1115.29 INDUSTRIES3 TOTAL FOR PERIOD 36 .35 43.55 38.52 45.18 41 .29 44.30 96.72 32.28 1.44 4.85 1.31 5.01 2 .00 7.78 6.75 7.53 80. 10 82.66 39 .37 40.86 40.03 43.79 46 .83 5 0.09 52.52 57 .76 61.91 59.61 67.98 6 8.48 57 .76 64.39 75.81 81.28 70.63 67.67 71.17 80.60 87 . 2 4 81.15 7 8 . 09 70.02 64.99 7 9.24 78.79 80.26 81.25 35.99 41.30 39.83 39.64 46 . 2 9 46.80 50.02 5 4.00 60.12 60.81 62.31 68.94 66 . 2 4 57.74 66.39 77.58 82.16 68.14 67.41 75 . 0 4 82.13 87 . 8 7 79.53 77.54 6 8 . 38 64.43 79.71 79.33 80.23 79.54 33.94 40.95 42.81 39.55 47 . 9 1 45.73 49.94 56 . 32 6 1.67 60.25 66.53 67.19 65.78 63.28 67 . 0 8 78.66 77.99 61.16 67.58 76.89 83.89 8 9 . 12 78.38 77.12 68.5 1 64.94 81.49 78.70 79.83 85 . 3 4 beginning with 1956. 5.92 4.05 2.34 1.55 .11 .50 This series 23.91 03.03 36.89 24.86 16.89 39.08 45.63 54.03 72.55 87 . 6 4 78.43 93.69 04.15 8 8 . 10 9 4 . 12 08.72 48.05 35.00 80.07 12.88 37.68 46 . 5 7 62.55 100.69 134.52 122.59 119.89 1 0 4 . 12 132.13 120.45 128 . 4 1 131.37 146.54 157.50 170.95 186.30 180.60 192 . 9 3 202 . 2 2 187.66 189.37 2 12.02 241 . 9 6 234.61 186.03 220.2 1 241 . 2 6 258.33 254.88 103.24 134.98 12 0 . 2 1 116.66 115.62 125 . 8 7 123.56 130.59 137.50 145.52 162.61 172.95 184.05 184.20 192.42 203.91 184.69 191.43 220.03 239.07 223.16 200.11 220.78 242.62 254.7 1 244.25 25 . 0 8 03.08 09.52 45.38 38.94 41.53 232.14 2 06.7 1 2 19.00 241.45 236.25 240.37 221.59 202.86 2 2 8 . 15 238.64 237.29 241.88 116.16 133.03 123.28 107.39 12 1.62 123.50 119.22 137.99 139.36 150.05 162 . 8 4 179.55 182.97 188.45 204.11 200.50 197.86 232.05 241.43 199.93 202 . 6 6 223.10 246.62 264.23 239 . 0 6 232.75 206 . 9 1 194.36 240.44 236 . 8 2 240.32 246.13 44.39 18.39 8 8 . 09 13.88 47.31 87.74 36.98 96 . 0 0 40.96 731.68 83 . 15 10.78 39.23 72.78 72 . 8 2 70.5 1 92.70 68.87 76 . 9 7 68.18 23.84 1023 1000.74 888.32 885 . 7 2 807.01 897 . 11 962.29 952.80 969.91 contains 97 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year 36. Jan. 1953. .. 1954... 1955 . . . 1956. .. 1957 ... 1958. .. 1959 ... 1960... 1961. .. 1962 ... 1963 . . . 1964... 1965... 1966 ... 1967. .. 1968... 1969. . . 1970... 197 1... 1972 ... 1973. . . 1974... 1975 ... 1976. . . 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980. . . 1981 . . . 1982 . . . 1983. . . 1984... 1985... 1986. . . 1987 . . . 36. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. CHANGE IN M A N U F A C T U R I N G AND TRADE INVENTORIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S ) 11.04 -27.84 11.82 25 . 6 4 -6.58 - 4 6 . 10 6 8 . 09 -8.17 -16.97 24.28 27.10 1 4 . 30 33.17 60.43 10.38 12 . 0 6 25.96 -14.10 27.74 8.63 65.09 33.92 -86 .59 28.28 21.31 33.10 30.84 -19.67 27 . 3 4 -59 . 10 -9 .07 89.60 10.06 15.18 112.82 -45.91 5.64 26.65 -6 .47 -75.30 37.92 -5 .82 -15.26 42.6 1 22.10 40.54 63.50 5 1.73 50.35 36.37 24.52 -20.81 60.04 30.68 76.26 31.60 -62.84 2 .26 39 . 4 7 43 . 9 9 50.21 -5.57 -20.23 -39.59 -32 .53 56.50 23.24 22.18 -1.55 -44.20 36.01 -0.55 -13.38 -30.85 44.63 -32.12 -4.91 5.14 36.18 19 . 02 35 .74 67.93 1.78 10.58 28.13 -6.19 32.64 12.11 78.86 31.92 -77.09 24.50 17.98 7 1.94 15.26 9.78 -8.72 -9.53 -35.57 66.68 -15 .46 43 .63 23.46 -35.56 -6.49 36 .47 2.83 -27 .55 32.69 -44.06 13.5 1 -31.15 26.65 25.39 2.50 35 .88 17.60 22 .42 24.96 25 . 16 -6.19 15.02 62.23 25 .30 -44.47 20.69 34.09 65 . 6 6 50.09 9 . 19 -13.96 -2 .22 4.43 86.11 -3.53 11.26 10.62 19.74 16 . 0 2 -6 .98 -12 .44 -1.38 -10.69 20.74 9.70 19.20 21.42 27.17 53.34 9.46 26.35 35 . 8 6 -17.58 -15.47 34.85 56.02 58.55 -59.32 29.52 31 . 06 50.32 17.41 -23.45 25.78 -75.12 16.07 77.69 -8.5 1 -39.48 3.74 -34.69 35.28 11.40 -11.86 1 . 07 4.94 -15.00 10.88 0.26 3.18 29.50 27 . 9 6 53.51 -0.84 -3.88 12 . 5 8 7.94 -41.06 20.2 1 60.25 50.60 -50.68 39 .96 19.79 30.86 17.18 -51.74 2 1.07 -1.64 10.39 -0.97 10.73 20.98 -26 .92 -34.55 22.13 38.72 -22 .72 13.51 27.72 -0.05 14.02 7.73 8.38 24.40 35.77 43.54 24 . 8 0 -15.66 37 . 5 7 14.26 -10.73 11.53 52.32 -8.12 -7.38 29.02 20.27 29.12 28.66 -20.56 0.22 -10.44 28.04 54.84 -4.58 26 . 0 9 -19.08 -4.46 48.65 3 9 . 18 -11.84 -23.17 - 2 .27 -43.97 53.62 -17.93 -24.98 24.38 0.72 -30.89 20.09 -23.08 Nov. Dec. 1 Q -48.80 - 0 . 14 12.29 8.7 1 - 2 4 . 18 17 . 0 9 5.26 -7.33 37 . 8 2 -3.92 14.59 41.23 33.20 -36.72 0.82 24.83 0.13 -14.56 27.17 23.50 -54.42 35.65 9.53 -0.22 34 . 3 6 40.09 40.77 -39.32 53.2 18.0 13.3 5 .4 22 . 1 25.8 76.9 23.12 5.32 51.49 -8.20 -4.62 - 2 4 . 12 - 4 2 . 16 38.54 36.14 0.32 14.17 -2.53 43.2 1 50.24 -16.10 -18.02 16.75 45.32 58.72 -26.05 2 .27 13.61 -77 .52 68.2 -26.5 2 .0 - 3 7 .7 - 4 3 .2 20.84 19.67 26.20 -13.70 40.14 17.14 73.40 32.48 -75.51 18.35 26 . 2 5 49 . 6 8 32.10 -5.15 -0.54 -36.07 8.81 18.26 27.23 13.45 -7.22 -22 .78 -5.5 12.1 -4.9 70.93 5.95 27 . 0 0 52.85 6 . 06 31.73 -2.53 54.08 9.86 24.73 23.62 6 . 05 13.92 14.32 21.96 13.13 4 8 . 00 4.34 39.37 0 . 14 4.24 3.26 7.2 1 •6.9 4 2.86 4.22 19 . 1 50.1 17 . 8 2 17.25 -8.81 -50.75 50.2 1 -15.37 -12.38 24.01 28.46 24.62 44 . 14 CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER IN 1982 DOLLARS, SMOOTHED DATA 1 (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1953. .. 1954... 1955... 56 ... 195 7 . . . 19 1959... 1960... 1961 . . . 1962... 3. . . 4. . . 5. . . 6 ... 7 ... 8. . . 9. . . 0.. . 1 ... 3. . . 4. . . 5... 6 ... 1977. .. 19 1979. .. 1980... 1981 . .. 1982 . . . 1983. .. 1984. .. 1985... 1986 . . . 1987 . . . 30.30 -44.97 2.18 22 . 10 1.45 -34.48 22.72 12.74 -27.06 32.60 7 .87 13.93 39.44 46 . 17 -40.32 4.10 23.48 -1.76 -41.67 35.89 5.41 -27 .28 36.44 14.41 18.25 45 .02 43.81 -38.07 11.96 2 1.48 -6 .56 -48.04 47 .30 -6.10 -20.63 29.10 24.02 2 1.41 43 .91 25.88 -37.59 15.80 18.88 -7.26 -42.79 49 .34 -2 1.74 -7.59 11.72 29.22 22.10 33.97 11.72 10.91 -34.76 -36.11 16.30 15.10 19 .30 18.92 -5.59 -5.78 -29 .22 -18.29 18.70 36 . 89 -26 . 10 -28.54 12 .41 3.49 -6.25 -3.01 2 1.84 28.66 23.69 20.76 20.5 1 22 .80 32.12 37 .37 28.70 6.13 14. 17 13.87 41.93 55.50 -18.85 -7 .97 22.40 40.04 59.28 -19.84 -2.70 -18.66 29.10 38.30 24.53 -4.77 28.81 18.63 52 . 09 50.22 -38.93 -0.58 25.88 44.45 54.42 -18.33 -1.12 15.38 17.34 26.28 -6 .04 29.10 14.53 7 1 .06 31.43 -72.45 2 1.42 25.36 -52.69 -39.68 54.81 9.81 12 . 7 6 23.26 26.78 24.52 -10.44 35.61 18.82 64.57 39 .99 -63.09 12.74 26.45 46.05 40.94 -11.2 1 1.26 -40.78 -27 . 0 0 66 . 0 5 7.60 2 1.74 9.77 17 . 4 0 28.00 1 .04 10.86 16.29 67.22 34.48 -64.84 24.70 26.08 59.77 29.82 -0.86 1.29 -26 .29 -9.2 1 78.81 - 6 . 07 14.25 4 4 . 16 7.97 8 . 37 53. 1953 ... 1954... 1955.. . 1956 . . . 1957 . . . 1958. .. 1959. .. 310. 342. 356. 331. 343. -33.36 53.29 32 . 0 8 -2.69 0.5 1 -29.84 -19.56 75.86 1 .49 25.18 9.18 17 . 37 27 . 0 6 2.82 -8.62 22.01 62.60 41.70 -55.89 27 . 4 8 28.01 55.79 27.91 -11.75 6 . 00 -27.64 2 .64 65.55 -4.80 1 .36 III Q -13.01 -33.10 25 .33 23.34 -14.19 2 .84 16.47 -7.00 16.90 7.69 10.19 26 .93 30.52 -30.39 -26.74 19.52 24.47 -13.31 9.98 26.35 -1.99 19.76 12 .36 10.27 32 .30 25.14 -43.27 -13.36 15.69 17.44 -17.32 14.38 29.69 -2.48 19 .60 16.28 11.41 35 .45 15.76 -48.68 -1.48 16.44 8. 05 -25 .08 16.56 24.25 -7 .44 19 , 13, 9 .94 8.62 26 . 57 3.36 -21.66 22.78 57 .85 39 .25 -45.31 31.45 26 .01 42 .86 24.66 -26 .96 13.33 -27.70 14 .23 49 .06 -0.6 1 0.06 19.62 5 .25 27.75 8.86 -16.09 26.55 50.2 1 20.07 -32.42 27.17 26 .64 34.91 16.2 1 -31.87 11.01 -23.88 22 .24 39 .84 -2 .36 4.95 29.66 12 .24 28.40 11.35 -1.72 37.59 43 . 09 2 .56 -19.96 22.78 35.09 33.46 0.62 - 2 5 . 19 4.2 1 -22 . 1 1 29.08 40.06 -5.60 -1.28 27.80 25 .42 28.73 1.77 10.32 48. 57 41.07 -2.14 -12.28 23. 06 38.11 37.59 -16.24 -15.89 -1.98 -30.83 32.31 36.6 1 -3 .46 -9.74 24.58 20.75 31.53 33.24 16. 05 22 . 4 9 -2.63 -5.01 8.47 10.15 41.18 49.89 54. 14 45.20 -5 .56 -1.77 -8.82 -10.17 24.41 25.62 34.05 35.06 53.67 44.58 -24.76 -23 .70 -9.00 -2 .43 -3.39 -8.42 -41.71 -50.80 3 8 . 14 34.59 10.56 22 .24 2 . 14 5 .82 -9 . 18 -4.49 -38.95 -20.13 14.09 24.31 -12.10 14.99 30. 19 1 .44 20.93 15.25 10.42 35.85 19.53 38.08 31.21 16.24 29.97 6.52 6.32 44.29 41.96 -1.35 -14.21 24.05 40.60 33.87 -10.10 -18.55 2.07 -25.54 31.86 44.28 -7 .26 -9.93 3. . . 4. . . 1975.. . 1976. .. 1977 ... 19 1979. . . 1980. . . 1981.. . 1982 . . . 1983. .. 1984... 1985 . . . 1986... 1987 . . . 475 493 510 509 484 5 06 544 541 484 5 07 524.3 550.4 584.0 317.3 318.1 316.2 318.8 316.2 310.8 316.9 343 .7 355.0 321.5 320.1 348.6 353.6 315.4 326 .4 346 .4 350.7 315.4 327 .4 346 . 5 351.9 319.1 330.3 339.9 350.0 322 .4 330.0 348.8 350.2 327 .4 330.1 352.1 347.1 331.1 382 . 1 380.9 382 .5 414.6 418.4 420.5 478.8 500.0 519.9 500.0 487 . 0 513.2 551.7 534.4 477.5 5 14.0 543.7 481.8 500.3 521.1 497 .8 486.1 5 17.9 543.1 533.5 485 .9 516.5 544.5 496 . 1 5 15.0 5 11.6 486 . 0 511.4 543.0 537.2 481.2 510.0 528.2 557.4 586.9 475.5 498 . 0 5 15.2 504.0 488. 0 513.5 544.5 536.8 479.4 512.7 532.5 473 .8 500.8 517.5 498.5 491 . 1 5 14.8 544.6 536.7 481.1 514.0 538.0 578.8 580.4 475 .7 500.0 519.0 499 .8 489.0 515.3 545.9 537.5 481 .4 511.4 543.5 580.1 -47.94 2.94 19 .26 40.09 -41.12 6 .08 -29.28 18.70 18.57 -18.46 23.54 7 .85 10.28 35 .26 2 1.18 . 1 1 ,86 48 . 5 7 -40.29 1.40 24.91 43.51 51.55 -16.46 -0.85 -30.93 -39.79 55.01 8.46 14.29 310.8 00.4 35 .3 55 .4 305 .8 339.1 354.7 308 . 3 341 .0 359.1 298 .9 313.2 342.6 16.17 -36. 15 15.73 19.03 -6.2 1 -30. 10 34.98 -25.46 2.77 0.82 26.57 22.18 25 . 7 6 53.65 11.44 17.37 27.11 -0.73 10.45 17.61 66.96 35.87 - 6 4 . 39 24.53 26 . 4 8 56.28 29 . 9 4 -5.10 2.60 -27 .92 -8.71 73.41 -3.13 13.60 296 .8 324.6 347 .2 -13.06 -30.95 21.93 23.16 -12.37 2.23 18.03 -8.30 17 . 2 6 6 .49 11.25 28.17 26.81 48.44 19.74 8.70 27 . 5 7 7.86 -13.16 28.97 50.38 20.63 -32 .56 27.13 29.25 37 . 0 8 13.83 -28.01 9.52 -24.56 21.85 42 .99 -2 .86 1 .24 315.3 295 .2 330.1 346 .9 327 . 0 29.4 522.4 536.6 539.2 523.1 538.6 542.8 526.2 537.3 544.5 526.1 537.9 544.1 529.8 538.7 539.7 531.1 537.5 540.3 381.8 393.4 417 .8 440. 1 477.6 492.6 475.0 499.6 517.2 500.8 489.4 514.5 545.0 537.0 480.6 5 12.7 538.0 570.4 579.8 538.9 510.2 491.8 527.4 538.0 542 . 8 479.8 501.5 521.1 495.7 486.9 5 17.8 547 . 4 532.7 484.0 515.5 546.0 574,9 574.3 5 32.6 536.0 495.5 501.1 532.2 539.1 540.8 83 .2 96.9 20.7 50.9 383.5 399.4 428. 2 453.6 373.7 385.0 402 .6 431.8 478.7 5 04. 1 522.4 489.2 487 .7 522.2 547.5 530.2 488.5 515.9 549 .8 77 .4 06.3 20.4 79.7 88.4 27 .2 546.1 525.5 490.9 514.7 552.2 84.9 09.8 516.5 476 . 1 490.6 531.4 549 .4 509 .4 491 .8 521.9 552.8 488.6 511.4 5 16.9 484.0 496 .9 534.5 549 .7 501.7 496 .7 523.1 549 .5 572.0 569.4 566.8 567.5 538.0 495.6 532.1 491.6 532.4 539.8 542.0 533. 1 540.0 540.0 531.2 485 .6 509.3 532.2 543 .2 545.1 526.9 484. 1 5 13.0 535.2 540.8 541.6 522.8 487 .2 5 16.0 538.0 541.3 540.3 541.0 521.4 488.8 521 .6 538.4 540.7 NOTE: U n l e s s o t h e r w i s e n o t e d , t h e s e s e r i e s c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1 9 4 8 . ' T h i s s e r i e s i s a w e i g h t e d 4 - t e r m m o v i n g a v e r a g e ( w i t h w e i g h t s 1 , 2 , 2 , 1 ) p l a c e d on t h e c o n t a i n s r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1947. 380.6 389.7 410.9 434.2 81.3 95.6 14.9 46.0 512.6 5 11.1 485.7 506.4 542.4 541.1 487.1 507 . 4 524.0 551.3 585.2 578.7 521.9 519.2 540.1 540. 1 -46 . 12 2.25 22.95 2.10 -30.94 18.04 17 .83 -28.46 26.51 6.51 9.56 32.52 28.81 31.73 32.03 31.17 14.62 1.79 10.96 35.42 58. 06 -10.52 -7.65 19.67 33.60 59.49 -20.27 -0.10 -16.09 -54.29 39.87 5.56 7.72 -0.17 -7 .92 -22.59 17 .76 16 .24 -14.30 .67 16.20 29.61 27 .92 44.35 23.20 20.5 1 23.81 -0.05 9.13 30.05 58.23 16.36 -37.21 23.03 32 . 19 48.00 7 .49 -11.45 -0.90 -35.56 14.07 43 .76 1 .49 3.62 -46.63 -3.97 17.13 9.77 -23.89 16.55 2 4 . 17 -9.46 20.86 12 .46 11.13 35.74 16.57 34.76 24.38 30.06 22 .42 -1 .96 9.65 46.55 46 .80 - 3 . 16 -10.42 24.36 35.74 45.28 -21.57 -9.11 -4.60 -41.11 35.01 23.14 1.50 -7 .80 -0.86 -28.05 15.22 18.58 -11.19 -13.18 28.12 -9.80 3.98 13.12 16.10 25.99 27.98 45 .62 20.93 22 .57 25 .76 0.54 8.28 27.56 54.25 25 .48 -36.92 19.36 29.10 45.54 18.44 -14.67 1 .67 -31.13 2 .09 48.63 0.99 5.33 A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD 317.0 3 ... 480.9 487.8 512.7 511.7 486 .7 501.6 540.0 544.4 495.9 504.8 519.4 546.0 584.8 562.7 Annual AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 4.21 -33.01 20.95 2 1.67 -9.60 -6.13 11.26 -15.92 15.13 -0.58 13.30 25.27 24.76 12 . 12.6 1 -33.18 16.18 21.30 - 5 . 34 -12.97 12 . 0 8 -23.25 15.04 -7 .06 16.34 25.44 19.2 1 47 . 5 8 8.74 14.96 24.47 5.17 -20.91 23.36 59.50 44.82 -51.49 30.06 28.31 48.95 28.23 -22 . 00 10.96 -26 . 33 10.30 54.28 -0.44 -2.41 58.8 9... 0. . . 1. . . IV Q M A N U F A C T U R I N G , AND CONSTRUCTI ON l WAGES AND SALARIES IN 1982 D O L L A R S , (ANNUAL R A T E , B 312 . 341 . 356. 322 . II Q A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD -47.62 4.99 2.7 1 10.44 -4.58 31.12 27.96 5.57 17.88 17.58 4.06 50.80 -5.68 10.6 1 8.47 20.16 22.01 -21 .06 7 . 19 60.37 53.48 27.14 -16.18 47.58 52.88 33.30 - 4 7 . 12 -11.92 8.27 - 2 2 .2 1 - 4 2 . 31 -30.82 17.44 23.77 -8.99 0 . 34 34.88 -1.19 30 . 8 9 20.44 18.82 32.36 28.50 60.08 60.36 44.23 30.32 26 . 36 22.5 1 60.96 Oct. IN 1982 D O L L A R S , ACTUAL DATA terminal month o f the span 2 This series 313.6 298.9 326.6 348.3 349 .6 326 . 5 353.9 360.1 357 . 9 379.7 391.3 413.2 439.1 470.1 479.0 500.7 517.2 496 . 9 488.5 5 17.4 545 . 8 530.7 486.2 513.9 539.9 569.4 576.8 542.2 535.7 503.2 498.6 529.1 539.3 541.6 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. I Q II Q - 0 . 14 0.64 0.80 -0.90 0.80 0.09 0.15 -0.99 1.13 -1.04 0.00 CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR SENSITIVE CRUDE AND INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS 1 (PERCENT) 1953. .. 1954. .. 1955... 1956 . . . 1957 . . . 1958. . . 1959. .. 1960... 1961 . . . 1962 . . . 1963. .. 1964... 1965. . . 1966 . . . 1967 . . . 1968... 1969. . . 1970... 197 1 ... 1972... 1973. .. 1974... 1975... 1976.. . 1977. .. 1978... 1979. .. 1980.. . 1981... 1982 . . . 1983... 1984. .. 1985. .. 1986. . . 1987 . . . -1.09 -1.89 1.83 1.20 -5 .82 -1.45 1.15 -5.52 -0.27 1 .02 0. 0. 1 5 -1 .41 3.42 -0.58 2.50 0.82 0.76 - 3 . 08 -0.09 2 .25 -0.17 0.18 0.37 1.32 -0.24 1.13 -0.20 -3.62 1.72 1.82 -2.80 0.81 -0.25 0.53 -0.26 -0.97 0.70 -1.75 0.24 1 .26 -1.24 0.67 0.40 3.77 2 .39 -0.29 1.32 -0.12 1 .06 1.99 1.76 -3.09 -1.62 3.10 1.33 -1.33 -0.92 1.31 -0.48 0.89 0.99 -1.11 -0.97 1 .34 -2 .64 1 .07 - 1 .02 0.26 0.78 0.25 2.09 - 1 .02 1.20 2 .07 -0.63 0.88 1.18 2 .64 3.73 - 2 .06 2 .35 2 .57 0.00 5 .07 -0.74 0.62 -1 .06 2.14 0.49 -0.54 0.93 0.22 0.24 0.00 1 .76 -3.80 -1 .46 -0.66 0.00 2.11 -1.28 -0.53 1 .54 0.00 0.46 -0.77 -0.24 -1.22 -0.42 1.31 0.19 4.35 3.94 0.60 2.55 -0.68 0.31 -0.08 -5 .90 1 . 14 -1.17 -0.48 -0.81 -1.17 1 .29 -0.2 1 1.69 1 .86 0.74 -0.44 -0.74 0.26 -0.78 0.53 0.00 1.23 0.23 0.7 8 -0.48 0.63 -0.43 0.78 3.70 -8.12 2.99 1 .00 -0.69 1.78 0.34 -4.15 0. 00 -0.40 2.01 -0.41 0.00 0.82 -0.43 0.00 1.53 -3.88 4. 34 0.98 1 .56 -2 .24 1.03 -1.05 0.00 0.76 -0.48 0.23 1 .80 1.91 -1.66 -0.2 1 1.08 1.74 2 . 08 0.59 -2.61 1 .60 -1.27 3.39 2.78 -1.38 -0.44 -1.49 2 .90 -0.99 -0.18 0.45 0.65 0.95 2 .80 -2.62 -2 . 19 0.97 -0.88 -1 .02 0.26 -0.26 1.58 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.76 1 .64 -1.05 -1.26 2.58 1.71 -0.73 1.41 -2.38 4.61 1 .40 0.99 -1.81 2 .62 -0.96 0.20 3.55 -2.50 -0.18 0.99 -1.07 -1.41 0.63 1 .24 -0.89 2.17 -0.88 -2 .06 0.00 0.27 0.52 1 .2 1.22 -4.51 0.50 0.69 1 .06 -0.64 1.67 1.12 3.52 -1 .62 .23 1 .57 -0.92 3.64 - 0 . 18 -1.61 2.55 -1.7 1 -0.37 -2 . 14 -1.18 -1.08 1.22 0. 16 -2 .89 -0.72 0. 17 -1.70 0.00 0.90 -0.19 0.37 -0.86 1.35 -0.18 -0.18 1.53 0.32 0. 17 1 .47 1.59 0.44 -1.96 1.7 1 0.78 2.15 1.05 0.88 -1.76 - 0 . 19 1.33 0.00 -0.66 0.29 0.34 -0.36 0.86 -0.48 -2.32 0.55 0.70 -1.55 0.93 -0.90 0.00 0.00 -0.35 0.83 -1.06 0.00 1.17 -0.32 0.68 0.80 3.14 2.98 0.00 0.96 0.77 0.42 2 .46 1.22 -1.88 -0.86 2 .33 0.54 -0.75 -0.68 0.85 0.36 - 0 . 17 0. 32 -0.34 -0.54 0.87 -1.40 1 .48 - 0 . 36 0.00 0.3 0.69 0.99 -1.25 0.53 0.99 -0.32 0. 34 1 .43 2.35 2 .03 -0.50 1.78 1.86 -0.10 3.33 -0.77 0.82 -1 .06 1.58 0.7 1 -0.28 -0.99 -0.48 -0.68 -0.4 -0. 1 0.13 0.40 0.32 0.56 -0.58 0.54 1.21 0.30 -0.78 0.46 1.41 2.57 -3.25 0.45 0.21 0.96 0.93 0.24 0.08 -0.34 -0.69 0.52 0.68 -0.97 -0.45 -0.05 - 1 .02 0.00 0.15 0.03 0.25 -0.20 0.82 -0.53 0.36 1.25 0.30 -0.39 0.81 1.64 2.30 - 2 .72 1.02 0.69 1.46 0.89 0.41 -0.86 -1.08 - 0 . 17 0.77 -0.80 -0.59 -0.05 -0.62 -0.05 0.66 0.5 1 -0.11 -0.57 0.58 0.22 -1.71 -0.18 0.23 -1.43 0.5 0.0 -0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.98 -0.7 1 0.15 1 .24 0.03 0.17 1 .08 2.14 2.05 -1.59 1.35 0.98 1.20 1 .64 0.57 -1.15 -0.68 1 .47 0.42 -1.81 1 .84 1 .46 1 .24 -2 .37 0.68 0.22 -0.54 -2.51 -0.53 0.26 -2 . 53 -1.36 2 .46 0.54 0.77 0.53 0.26 0.51 -0.87 i .28 0.66 -3.52 -0.23 1 .44 -3.65 0.54 -0.08 0.26 -0.48 -1.18 1.50 1.15 0.63 -0.43 0.2 1 -0.18 4.96 -1.88 5.47 0.35 1.57 0.87 0.00 1.23 -2 .30 -0.10 -0.09 0.17 -0.83 1.18 0.72 -0.48 -0.25 2.27 0.00 0.22 0.41 2.77 4.46 -4.43 -0.28 -1.74 -1.00 2.2 1 1.60 1.74 -1.27 -0.20 1 . 03 -1.30 0. 37 1.17 0.72 -1.20 1 .48 1.11 1.67 -3.01 0.41 1.80 6.73 0.24 -1.70 1.22 2.41 0.00 -1.11 1.43 1.24 2.91 -8.63 2 .24 1.53 3.49 -0.27 -1.50 0.42 -0.94 0.62 1 .09 -0.44 0.09 -0.18 -0.64 1.41 -1.34 0.40 1 .82 -0.76 0.82 1 .00 2.72 1.57 -2.10 2 .36 0.62 1.19 2.63 0.59 -1.85 -0.92 2.50 0.55 -0.56 0.13 0.25 0.31 0.60 0.40 -1.23 0.00 0.65 0.90 3.38 -1.20 0.33 1.72 -0.88 1.83 1.01 -3.81 0.23 -1.02 1 .48 -0.74 -0.45 0.85 0.00 - 0 . 36 0.64 0.00 -1.85 -0.24 0.58 -1.55 0.80 -0.12 -0.06 0.25 -0.17 1 .06 -0.83 0. 12 1.23 -0.11 0.40 1.23 2.36 1.82 -0.68 0.72 0.45 -0.85 0.12 0.00 0.28 -0.35 0.18 -0.85 -0.06 0.49 0.29 -0.33 0. 00 -0.29 -0.06 -0.32 0.11 0.88 2.12 -0.85 -0.64 0.06 1 .06 0. 39 -0.97 1.02 0.00 -0.54 0.30 - 0 . 19 0.12 0.83 0.00 -1,44 0. 12 0.48 0.60 -0.65 0.66 0.36 1.79 -0.83 1.23 -1.04 0.76 0.54 -3.00 -0.15 -1.25 0.62 -0.35 -0.54 0.40 0.61 0.48 1.15 -0.21 1 .99 -0.42 0. 10 1.36 -0.93 -0.36 - 0 . 14 0.42 0.24 -0.67 3.10 -0.33 2.13 -2 .57 -0.51 1 . 36 -0.44 -0.37 1.16 -0.34 0.90 -0.17 -1.27 0.35 0.37 0.00 -0.18 0.18 -0.37 0.37 -0.34 0.18 1 . 02 -2 .09 1.72 0.92 0.68 -1.24 -0.54 -1.10 -0.37 0.17 0.00 2 .03 -0.82 -0.85 1 .09 -0.34 -0.54 0.36 -0.56 0.56 -0.69 -0.53 0.66 1.16 -0.51 1.26 - 0 . 17 -0.72 0.36 0. 19 0.37 -1.39 0.72 0.49 0.82 -1.55 0.7 1 0.51 -0.36 0.18 -0.19 -0.56 -1.58 1 .42 -0.33 -0.81 -2.09 1.59 0.68 -1.10 0.00 0.19 0.93 0.18 0.88 0.99 1.31 -1.43 1.05 0.17 -0.55 -1.79 0. 19 0.37 0.86 -0.33 -0.90 -0.53 0.16 -0.32 1 . 17 0.63 2.16 1 .47 0.88 2 . 10 -0.43 0.2 1 0.63 -3.55 0.73 -1.27 0.39 -0.35 0.10 0.00 0.51 -0.66 0.18 -0.89 0.00 0.00 -0.50 1.40 2 . 12 -4.45 0.75 0.69 -0.75 0.31 0.00 -3.77 -0.45 - 0 . 30 0.49 -0.09 -0.57 0.50 -0.5 1 0.00 0.73 0.54 -0.33 -0.65 -0.33 0.62 2.07 0.43 -0.17 0. 17 -0.18 0.18 - 0 . 16 -1.14 0.50 0.46 1.02 0.54 0.51 -3.47 0.00 0.36 0.99 -0.49 1.00 0.6 1 3.14 -1.07 -0.34 -1.03 0.54 0.89 0.98 -0.33 0.49 0.00 1.22 -1.95 0.34 -0.86 -0.18 1.23 -0.48 -0.17 0.00 1 .82 1.93 -2 .98 0. 34 -0.70 1.08 1 .22 0.49 -1.33 0. 16 1.49 3.07 -2 . 16 -0.89 -0.52 1.63 0.48 -0.18 -1.21 -0.67 -0.19 0.91 0. 19 0.18 0.17 0.5 1 -0.53 0.71 1 .03 0.48 -1.01 0.49 1 .02 3.44 -5 . 12 0.91 -1.95 1.77 0.98 -1.68 -0.72 -2.18 0.97 -0.62 -1.15 0.69 2 .81 0.11 0.72 -0.26 2.09 0.00 0.7 1 1.91 -1.52 -0.29 0.69 -0.66 0.77 1 .63 -0.27 2.79 0.27 -0.7 1 1 .88 -1.09 -0.29 -2 .83 -0.33 0.55 1.10 -0.09 1 .08 -1.54 0.30 0.28 -0.18 -0.49 1.7 1 -1.33 -0.11 1.98 1 .60 0.81 -1.01 -0.5 1 1.01 -1.19 0.00 2 .27 0.00 -0.33 1.75 -0.52 1.15 - 1.68 -0.81 1 .09 0.00 -0.39 1.35 0.90 2.19 -0.48 0. 00 -0.44 -0.95 - 0 . 10 0.72 -0.84 0. 10 0.38 -0.93 0.30 0.67 0.39 -1.18 1.10 0.17 -0.6 0.2 -0.0 0. 1 0.9 0.0 -1.6 0 . 12 0.65 0.55 -0.49 0.58 0.58 1 .94 -1.41 1 .46 -0.08 0.44 1 .36 0.10 1.77 -0.59 -0.10 1.21 -0.88 -0.31 0.12 -1.08 0.77 0.33 0.42 -1.54 1.15 0.40 -0.70 - 0 . 18 0.0' 0.2 0.9 0. 1 -1.3 -0.85 0.80 0.57 0 . 38 - 1 .46 0.80 0.26 -0.64 -0.42 0.13 0.37 0.76 0.26 -0.78 0.5 1 1.14 0.25 -0.72 0.22 1 .27 2 .44 -2 .89 0.38 -0.35 0.31 1.35 0.34 0.76 -1.31 -0.41 0.87 -0.57 -0.20 1.56 -0.66 -0.28 -0.06 0.43 0.11 0.78 -0.95 0.06 1 .00 -0.21 0.56 1 .09 2.46 1 .99 -0.35 1.55 0.94 0.50 2.2 1 -0.30 -0.52 - 0 . 88 1 .59 0.36 -0.44 -0.51 -0.17 0.57 0.23 0.08 -1.01 -0.45 0.46 -0.64 0.98 -0.70 0.00 0.55 0.54 0.25 -0.86 -0.15 0.58 -0.27 0.53 1 .05 2.38 0.92 0.25 1 .57 0.48 0 . 16 1 .7 -1.8 0.1 -0.9 1 . 1 0.20 -0.28 -0.36 -0.48 0.75 0.26 -0.45 -0.22 -0.24 0.32 -0.38 0.52 -0.73 0.00 0.49 0.49 - 0 . 16 -0.33 -0.30 0.16 -0.27 0.23 1 .02 2.16 -0.58 0.01 1.38 -0.41 0.45 0.93 -2.85 0.11 - 1 . 06 0.72 -0.13 -0.40 0 . 12 -0.42 0.54 0.7 1 -1.12 0.26 0.40 0.20 -0.50 0.09 -0.77 0, 06 0. 36 0.11 -0.25 0.12 - 0 . 18 -0.11 -0.46 0.00 0.86 1 .93 -1.00 -0.70 1 .35 -0.95 0.85 0.39 - 2 .06 -0.27 -0.92 0.87 -0.55 -0.61 0.5 1 -0.23 0 . 12 1.10 -0.99 0.26 0.94 0.08 -0.74 0 . 03 -0.58 0.19 0.51 -0.06 -0.63 0.21 0.15 0.00 -0.68 0.14 0.70 1.91 -0.60 -0.76 1.25 -0.6 1 1.15 0.20 - 0 . 03 -0.27 -0.66 1.36 -0.91 -0.62 -0.46 -0.03 -0.63 0.24 1.15 -0.02 -1.5 1 0.44 0.34 -1.59 0.40 - 0 . 32 0.24 0.6 1 0.10 -0.33 0.25 0.97 0.34 -0.71 0.93 1.18 3.34 -1.41 0.28 1 .42 0.55 1 .46 0.66 0. 18 -1.09 -0.62 1.78 -0.56 -0.36 0.43 1 .48 1 . 14 0.82 1.15 -0.10 -0.42 1 . 06 0.03 -0.69 0.18 -0.34 0.16 0.81 -0.03 -1.27 0.15 0.42 0.38 -0.7 1 0.53 0.46 1.94 -0.43 0.44 0.81 0.06 1 .26 -0.03 1.53 -0.29 -0.31 1 .47 -1.00 -0.47 -0.31 -0.76 0.59 0.76 0.33 -1.23 0.48 0.06 -0.61 -0.29 0.19 0.49 0.70 0.40 -0.70 0.54 1.16 0.16 -0.84 0.22 1 .44 2.81 -3.42 0. 08 -0.14 0.58 1 .08 0.36 0.51 -1.21 -0.47 0.94 -0.68 -0.10 1.33 -0.52 0.26 0.73 -0.03 -0.98 0.32 0.23 -0.76 0.25 -0.24 0.12 0.57 0.13 -0.35 -0.04 0.36 0.48 -0.48 0.35 0.98 2 .27 -0.82 0.06 0.80 0.29 0.96 0.74 -0.02 -0.68 -0.58 1 . 16 -0.39 -0.39 0.28 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD NOTE: Unless o t h e r w i s e n o t e d , t h e s e s e r i e s c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1948. 2 ' T h i s s e r i e s c o n t a i n s r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1947. T h i s s e r i e s i s a w e i g h t e d 4 - t e r m moving average p l a c e d on t h e t e r m i n a l month o f t h e s p a n . -2 .04 1 .03 1 .24 0.42 -1.78 0.24 0.30 -0.53 -0.33 -0.09 0.35 0.90 0.56 -1.13 0.82 1 .93 0.56 -1.30 0.75 1 .94 4.70 -5.31 0.79 0.01 0.61 1.68 -0.08 1.43 -1.59 -0.03 1 . 16 -0.73 0.03 0.72 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -1.35 1 .09 0.5 1 0.80 -1.70 -1.28 0.17 0.36 0.91 -1 .09 -0.19 -0.02 0.00 0.52 0.11 -1.65 -0.33 0.58 -1.2 1 0.96 -0.45 -0.86 0.16 1.28 -0.26 -1.55 1.68 -0.51 -1.20 0.26 -0.08 0.36 0.50 0.25 -1.90 0.92 1.16 0.21 -0.78 1 .49 0.88 2.58 -0.70 2.10 1.58 1.83 1.14 -0.91 2.50 -1.15 -0.50 2.00 -1.35 -0.46 0.01 -1.77 2.60 -0.2 1 -1.42 -3.2 1 2.08 1 .56 -1.58 0.76 -0.27 0.52 99. CHANGE IN SENSITIVE MATERIALS PRICES, SMOOTHED DATA^ (PERCENT) 1953... 1954. .. 1955. . . 1956 . . . 1957 . . . 1958. . . 1959 ... 1960... 1961 . . . 1962. .. 1963. .. 1964. . . 1965 . . . 1966 . . . 1967 . . . 1968... 1969... 1970... 197 1... 1972 ... 1973. .. 1974... 1975. .. 1976. . . 1977... 1978... 1979. . . 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983. . . 1984... 1985 . . . 1986 . . . 1987... Annual AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -2 . 17 0.95 0.42 0.6 1 -1.58 1.89 0.22 -0.52 0.51 -0.26 -1.03 99. CHANGE IN SENSITIVE MATERIALS PRICES, ACTUAL DATA (PERCENT) 1953. .. 1954. . . 1955... 1956. . . 1957 ... 1958... 1959. . . 1960... 1961 . . . 1962. . . 1963. .. 1964... 1965... 1966. . . 1967... 1968... 1969. . . 1970... 197 1. . . 1972. . . 1973... 1974... 1975 . . . 1976 . . . 1977... 1978. .. 1979. .. 1980. . . 1981... 1982 . . . 1983. . . 1984. . . 1985... 1986... 1987 . . . IV Q 0. 0. 0. -0. 0.96 2.08 - 2 . 18 1 . 12 -0.66 0.22 1 .59 0.37 1.29 - 1 .09 -0.32 0.93 -0.64 -0.28 1 .08 -0.31 -0.65 0.55 0.58 -0.90 -0.55 0 . 14 -0.93 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.29 -0.05 0.79 -0.61 0.35 1.23 0.2 1 -0.33 0.78 1.73 2.31 -2.52 0.94 0.63 1.2 1 1.15 0.4 1 -0.64 -0.85 0.65 0.57 -0.62 -0.13 -0.22 0.44 0.3. -0.0 -0.9 -0.3 0.4 -0.7 0.49 0.38 0.29 -0.7 1 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.4 1 .0 2.33 0.78 -0.03 1 . 1 0. 1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.37 0.2 1 0.99 -0.74 0 . 03 0.80 0 . 10 -0.64 0 . 10 -0.56 0 . 14 0.56 0.01 -0.72 0 . 16 0.13 0.09 -0.62 0.22 0.67 1 .93 -0.68 -0.34 1.14 -0.50 1.09 0. 19 -0.19 -0.28 -0.63 1.23 -0.82 -0.57 0.09 -0.95 0.62 0.52 0.40 -1.39 1 .02 0.28 -0.66 - 0 . 12 0.04 0.27 0.88 0 . 16 -1.24 0.31 0. 0. 0.99 -0.3 0.3 1 .2 -1.00 -0.28 1 .00 -0.70 -0.26 0.92 -0.46 0.16 0.60 0 . 04 -0.80 0.23 0.24 -0.74 0.2 1 -0.28 0.11 0.56 0.12 -0.22 -0.21 0.32 0.58 -0.30 0.18 0.86 2 .04 0.06 -0.48 0.80 0.20 1 .02 0.81 -0.04 -0.50 -0.68 1.01 -0.20 -0.46 0 . 16 (APRIL 1988) ( w i t h weights 1,2,2,1) 99 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. 341. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERV1SORY ON PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS (1977=100; Nov. Dec. II Q III Q IV Q Annual WORKERS AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 68.6 70.7 73.2 75.9 76 .9 78.0 80. 1 81.5 83.2 85.1 4. . . 5. . . 6 ... 7 ... 1. . . 3.. . 4. . . 5. .. 6 ... 7 ... 8. . . 9. . . 0. . . 1 . . . 985. .. 986 . . . 9 8 7 . .. 86.6 88.1 90.0 91.2 93.1 86.7 88.5 89.7 91.5 93.2 96 .9 100.2 102 .2 99 .3 97 .0 97 .6 99 .9 100.9 99 .9 94.6 93.0 93.2 97.2 98.0 99 . 5 100.8 99.5 94.2 92.9 93.0 94.4 93.6 94.5 94.3 100.2 102.0 341C. 1980. 981 . 982 . 983. 984. 985 . 986 . 341C. 87.1 90.0 90.1 91.7 93 .5 100, 101, 93.8 97.9 100.9 101.6 10 1. 101. 99. 100. 87.2 88. 7 90.3 87.5 89.0 90.3 98.1 00.9 01.4 99.0 98 . 0 98.7 00.4 97.3 93.2 93.0 93 .6 94. 1 95.1 94.0 95.4 92.6 92.7 94.0 95.4 94. 1 95.2 88. 1 89.4 9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0. 1 0.2 0.3 -0. 3 0. 1 0.2 0. 3 -0.4 -0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0. 0 -0.6 -0.4 0. 0 0,5 -0.3 0.3 -0.4 0.8 0. 1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0. 1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0. -0. 0. -0. 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.2 87.9 89.7 88.0 89. 88. 2 89.5 91.0 94.2 94.0 101.2 101.7 98 . 5 101.3 100.2 100.4 97.0 93 .7 92.0 92.7 97.8 99 . 3 99. 8 100.3 96 .7 93 .7 92.4 93.2 99 . 6 92.8 93.4 87.9 89.3 90.0 93.9 95.1 98 .8 101.9 100.3 100. 100, 94.5 95.1 CHANGE IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 1-MONTH (PERCENT) 0.2 0.4 -0.3 0.3 0. 1 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.4 -0. 1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.0 1 .0 0. 1 0.9 0.6 0.0 0. 1 0.5 87.0 0.3 0.4 0. 0 0.2 0. 1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0. 1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.0 0. 1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0 .4 0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0. 1 -0.1 0.5 0 .2 0. 1 -1.5 -0.3 0 .5 0.4 0. 0 -0.2 -0.3 0. 0 0.4 0.5 -0.5 -1.0 0.2 0. 1 0. 3 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0. 5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0. 1 0.4 -0.1 CHANGE IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 6-MONTH (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 100.6 100.1 95.9 93.5 92.1 93.4 94.1 95.2 98. 101 . 100. 99. 95. 94.0 95.5 86 .8 88.5 89 .8 91.5 93.3 100. 101. 97.3 97.9 99 .6 100.8 99 .4 94.2 92 .9 93.2 95.0 99. 95. 94.1 95.2 94.3 94.3 100. 101. 92.3 94.0 5 .0 96.1 98.5 101.4 100.9 99. 100. 97.6 99 .2 99.9 100.3 94.0 95.3 94.4 95.3 96.1 99 . 0 102 . 0 100.1 89.0 90.2 92 . 1 93.9 95.0 95.6 98 .2 10 1.2 101.1 98. 3 97.5 98.9 99.9 100.4 97.4 93.6 93 . 1 94.6 93.8 94.8 93.3 94.8 94.2 95.1 94.1 95.3 94.2 95.0 SPANS AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.5 0. 1 0.4 -0.3 0. 1 0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.5 -0.2 -0.6 0. 1 0.0 0. 1 0. 3 -0.1 -0.5 0. 1 0.2 0. 1 0.3 0. 3 0. 0 0.0 0.5 -0. 0. -0. 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 0. 0 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0. 1 0. 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0. 1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0. 1 0.2 0. 1 -0. 1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 1 0.3 0.3 0. 1 0. 0 0.1 0. 1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0. 1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0. 1 0.2 0.2 0. 1 0.3 0. 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0. 1 0. 1 0.1 -0. 1 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0. 1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0. 1 0.0 0.0 0. 1 SPANS AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1953. 954. 955. 1.0 1 .8 2 .8 1 .2 0 .8 4 .0 2 .8 - 1 .6 - 1 .9 -0.5 0.7 3. 1 0.8 0. 1 0.0 -0.6 3. 1 1 .2 2.7 0.5 -1.1 -5.5 -1.0 -0.9 0.4 -1.8 -1.4 -0.8 1 .9 2. 1 2 .3 0.7 1 .5 1.4 1 .3 1.9 1 .9 1 .9 - 2 .6 -1.6 0.3 1.6 2 .4 -1.8 -5.1 0. 3 -1.9 -0.5 0.3 -2.8 0.2 -0.4 2 . 1 1 .8 1 . 1 1 .2 1.3 1 . 1 2 .0 1 . 1 1.5 -2.1 - 2 .5 -0.4 1 .5 1 .3 -1.7 -4.0 0.3 -0.9 2 .3 1 .9 1 .5 0.9 1 .3 -0. 1 1.6 2 .9 2 .7 - 2 .9 -3.2 -1.2 2 .2 1 .6 -0.9 -3.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -1.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.8 0.0 0.1 1 1 2 2 .7 .0 .7 .9 3 .5 -0. 1 -i.O -5.3 0.0 -1.0 -0.6 -1.0 0. 1 1 . 1 -1.5 N O T E : T h e s e s e r i e s c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1 9 8 3 . P e r c e n t c h a n g e s a r e c e n t e r e d w i t h i n t h e s p a n s : 1-month c h a n g e s ~e placed on t h e 2d m o n t h a n d 6-month c h a n g e s are placed on t h e 4 t h m o n t h . Q u a r t e r l y a n d annual f i g u r e s a r e a v e r a g e s o f t h e 100 2 .4 1.7 0.8 1.8 1 .6 0.7 2 .0 2.5 2 .2 -2 . 0 -1.1 0.6 -1.0 -0.3 1 .7 1.5 1 .5 2.7 3.6 1. 0 -4. 1 -1.9 0.8 0.8 2.0 -1.9 -5.2 -1.6 2 .2 0. 1 0.3 -1.3 0.7 1.6 -0.6 -0. 1 0.8 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Apr. Mar. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1 Q II Q III Q 732. UNITED KINGDOM--INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES (u) ( 1982-84-100) 2 .2 2 .7 12.1 12 .4 12 .9 12.1 2.3 2.9 12.1 12.4 13.1 12.1 12 .5 13.3 12.1 12 .5 13.3 12.0 12.1 12 .6 2.2 2.3 2 .8 12.1 12 .4 12 .9 12.1 12 .5 13.2 12.1 12.3 12 .9 3.8 3.8 14.0 14. 1 14. 1 4.0 14.2 14.2 4.3 13.8 14.3 3.9 4.5 14. 1 4.3 14.2 14.5 1 4.0 1 4 .4 4.6 5 .0 5.8 6 .2 6.5 4.6 5.0 5 .9 16. 1 14.7 15.1 16.0 16. 1 16.7 14.7 5.1 15.9 16.0 16.7 15.3 15.8 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.8 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.9 4.8 5.5 5 .9 14.8 15 .5 6.2 6.9 6.0 6.3 5.0 5.9 6.1 6.6 15.2 15.8 16.7 5.3 15.8 16.0 6.7 5.4 5.8 6 .2 16 .9 1 4.6 1? . 1 15.8 16.1 16 .6 18.2 18.6 18.5 18.2 18.5 8.2 8.4 18.2 18.4 18.3 18.7 8.4 8.8 7 .8 18.4 8.1 8. 5 8.2 8.5 .0.5 .1.9 24.1 25 5 27 .9 32 .7 41.3 46 .6 54.7 59 .0 68.2 20.5 21.9 24.1 257 28.0 32.7 41.5 47.2 55.0 59 .4 68.8 0.5 2.0 24.2 25.9 28.2 33.1 41.8 47.8 55.3 59.6 69.5 20.7 22.2 24.3 ?6.9 8.8 20.7 22 .4 24.4 26.3 29.C 34. 3 42.9 49.4 55.8 60.3 70.8 0.9 2.5 4.5 4. 1 >8.3 J4. 3 20.5 21.7 23.9 25 4 27.8 32 .4 40.8 46 .5 54. 7 58.7 65.4 50.C 56.1 60.8 7 1.3 20.1 2 1.2 23.0 24.8 26 .8 30.2 36. 3 44.5 51.9 56 .8 62.2 20.5 2 1.7 23.8 25.3 27.6 32.0 39 .8 46 . 1 54.2 58.3 64.5 37.0 87 .6 88. 1 88.5 89.2 89.7 39.0 104.2 111.4 114.8 99.5 104.5 111.9 115.0 99.7 104.8 112.1 114.9 100.2 104.7 111.9 114.6 100.7 105.7 112.2 114.9 101.1 105 .9 112.2 115.5 12.0 12.1 12 .6 12.1 12.2 12.6 12.2 12.3 12.7 12 . 1 1957 . . . 1958. .. 13.8 13.8 13.8 1960. .. 1961 ... 1962... 1963. .. 1964... 1965... 1966. . . 1967. . . 1968.. . 1969. . . 1970... 1971... 1972 ... 1973. .. 1974... 1975 ... 1978. .. 1979... 14.5 14.8 15.5 15.9 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.4 18.9 20.0 21.0 22.8 24.7 26.6 29.8 35.7 44.1 5 1.4 56.5 61.7 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.4 19.0 20.2 2 1.2 23.0 24.8 26.8 30.3 36.3 44.6 51.9 56.8 62.2 14.5 14.9 15.6 16 . 1 16.3 17.1 17 .8 18.4 19.0 20.2 2 1.3 23.1 24.9 26 .9 30.6 37 .0 44.9 52.4 57.1 62.7 1981.. . 82.6 83.3 84.6 983... 97.1 102.0 107.2 113.1 97.5 102 .5 108.0 113.5 97.7 102.8 109.0 113.7 985 . . . 986 . . . 987 . . . 8.0 8.5 0.5 .1.6 3 .7 5 . 1 7 .4 31 .6 38.4 + 5.7 3 . 7 >8.0 D 3 . 8 732C. UNITED KINGDOM--CHANGE 6.6 8. 1 8.5 0.4 1 .7 3.8 5 . 3 7 .6 32 . 1 + 0.1 + 6.2 8.1 16 . 0 3 .7 + 2 .4 + 8.7 5 .6 9.9 0.2 )0.5 91.4 101.5 106.5 112.3 115.7 101.8 106.9 112.7 116.7 6 / 4.8 L 3.5 16.0 16.7 3.4 1.7 .1 3.3 1.7 5.0 1 .7 5.0 0.0 1 .6 87 .6 26.3 29.0 34.3 42.9 49 .4 55.8 60.3 70.8 81.6 9 1.3 20.5 21.8 23.8 25.5 27 .8 32.3 40. 1 46 .8 54.2 58.7 66.6 78.5 87 .9 99 .4 104.5 111.8 114.9 100.7 105.4 112.1 115.0 101.8 106 .7 112.6 116.5 99.8 104.8 111.2 115.0 92.C 83.5 102 . ] 106 .8 112.9 117.1 97 .4 102 .4 108. 1 113.4 9 .4 + .6 +.6 3.1 6 .2 1958. .. 1959. . . 1960... 1961 ... 1962. . . 1963.. . 1964. . . 1965. .. 1966. . . 1967. .. 1968. .. 1969. . . 1970... 1971.. . 1972. . . 4.3 1.4 2.8 .8 .4 .4 .7 .3 .5 5.7 . 1 0.0 -2.7 2.8 4.1 5.2 1.3 5.0 6.0 4.6 1.1 1 .4 -1.4 1 .4 6.9 3.9 -1.2 5.0 2.3 1 . 1 8.8 7 .2 5.9 11.1 5 .0 4.2 - .7 .4 .7 .2 .3 .0 .0 +.6 .1 1.7 4.9 4.5 2.8 3.9 4.6 . 1 .8 .0 .0 .1 .8 1 3.9 4.9 1974... 18.1 1 .4 1976. . . 13.6 19.3 6.9 11.3 2 0.3 13.5 1 1 .9 .2 1977 . . . 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981. .. 1983.. . 1984... 1985 . . . 1986 . . . 1987... 0.0 5.0 4.5 0.0 1.5 1.5 6.1 3. C 1.5 6.2 1 .4 -1.4 2 .8 6.8 3.9 0.0 6 .2 -1.4 -1.4 1 .4 1.4 1.4 2.8 5.4 0.0 2.5 4.9 0.0 2.8 1.4 6.8 0.0 2.5 3.6 4.2 1.4 1.4 5.4 0.0 3.8 3.6 4.2 O.C 2 .8 3.8 O.C 2 .£ 2 .6 2 .7 -0.9 1 .9 -1.8 2 . 3 2.6 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.6 4.5 0.0 4.5 3.0 7.7 10.7 8. 2 4.0 7 .7 9.7 9.0 4.0 8.6 6 .9 10.7 3.3 3.3 5.2 5.0 9.5 6.8 11.4 3.3 4.4 5.2 4.9 8.4 5.9 10.5 2.2 5.5 5.1 8.8 10.8 5.7 3.4 4.4 5.2 5.0 8.5 6.9 10.6 5 .3 2 .5 3.7 5.2 3.8 1 . 1 5.9 4.3 0. 0 5.4 4.5 1.1 2 .1 2 .5 4.8 3.* 2 .2 I .2 18.1 16.4 16.9 16.6 17.0 19.6 9.2 12.0 7.9 21.4 18.3 12.7 11.5 11.9 1 2 D.4 12.8 ?.8 15.6 6.9 13.2 20.2 12.7 13.7 11.3 8.6 22.0 14.3 11.4 16 .0 9.6 8.5 23.3 10.6 9 .9 18.3 9.1 9.2 23.8 10.2 10.9 3.3 4.2 8.2 3.2 3.3 4.0 8.2 2.9 3.7 3.7 8.4 1.8 4.8 3.7 7.4 1.1 6 .0 5.1 4.8 2.1 6 .6 5 .5 2 .7 6.2 6.1 2.7 4.2 i4.6 1 733. 1953... 2 1.6 16.0 13.1 5 .4 5. 1 6 .7 1 . 1 4.0 1 .3 1 .2 6 .2 1 . 1 2.8 -1.6 3.3 0.0 3.3 O.C 3.2 -1 .6 1 .6 2 .5 _0.5 1 . 1 0.9 FOR -1.1 3. 3 7.5 1.0 0.0 0.9 1.9 5 .4 0.4 PERIOD 0.6 3.8 5.7 3.5 3.7 0. 5 2 . 3 3 .5 2 . 1 2 . 1 3.4 4.9 4. 0 3.1 2.6 5 . 1 6 .2 6 .2 9.3 5 .6 3.7 958. .. 960... 961. .. 962... 963.. . 964... 965... 966 . . . 967... 968. .. 969. .. 1970... 1972 . . . 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976.. . 1977 ... 1978. .. 1979. .. 1980. .. 1981... 1982... 1983 . . . 1984. . . 1985... 1986 . . . 2. 1 -0.3 2. 1 4.5 3.0 2 .0 4.5 5.C 8." 5.f 5 .8 6.8 11.0 7 .( 5.0 21.3 23.2 25 .. 18.9 17 . 1 17.7 23.3 19.3 20.5 7.9 9.8 2 1.7 10.2 11.3 23.7 7.9 10.5 15.5 8.7 11.4 20.c 7 . ( 10. ) 16." 9 . 19. 21.2 7 .2 10.6 16.5 10.0 10.0 15.7 11.3 5.3 6.4 4.0 6.8 1 .5 11.7 8.5 21.7 16.2 12 .4 6.0 5 .4 4.6 6.3 1 .4 18.3 8.9 9 .2 22.9 10.3 6.6 5.4 3.4 5.9 11.8 17 .4 6 .8 12.0 20.3 13.0 8.0 3.4 4. 0 6.c 9.: 10.2 b.t 11.Z 17.* 11. 9- 9. h.i k.L 5 .( 1. 3 A 5 . 3.( 6 . 8.3 2 .6 CANADA--INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES (7) ( 1982-84=100) 2 .9 4.9 4.7 8.9 6.9 10.9 8.7 4^2 6 .5 5 .7 2 .9 4.3 AVERAGE FOR 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.0 24.0 24.1 24 2 24.2 24.3 24.4 24 . 24. 2 5.2 2 5.8 25.2 25.9 25.2 26.1 25.3 26.2 25.5 26 .2 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.8 25 . 25 . 2 6.7 2 7.1 26.6 27.0 26 .7 27 .0 35 . 1 27 .8 28.3 29. 1 30.1 31.2 32 .4 34. 1 35.2 27 .9 28.5 29.2 30.2 31.5 32.6 34 .2 35 .4 26.9 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.4 29.1 30.4 31.6 32.8 34.3 35.3 27.1 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.4 29.2 30.4 31.5 32.9 34.3 35.3 27. 27 .7 28.3 28.9 30.0 31.0 32 .3 33.8 26.8 27.0 27.5 28.1 28.5 29.2 30.4 31.6 32.7 34.3 35.4 27. 27. 27.7 28.2 28.7 29.8 30.6 32.0 33.2 34.8 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.9 30.0 31.0 32.3 33.7 35.1 26 .7 27 .0 27.6 28.1 28.7 29.6 30.6 32.0 33.2 34.8 26.6 27.0 27.2 27.7 28.2 28.8 29.8 30.7 32.1 33.4 34.9 25.3 26.2 26.3 26 .7 27 .0 37.1 39.1 42.7 47.9 52.4 55.7 60.6 66.0 72.3 81.0 90.2 97.7 102.9 106.7 111.4 37.2 39.4 43.2 48.2 52.7 56.2 61.0 66.6 72.9 81.8 91.4 98.1 103.5 107.4 111.8 37.2 39.5 43.6 48.5 52.8 56.8 61.7 37.4 39.9 43.8 48.7 53.1 57.1 61.9 37 .5 40.2 44.6 49.1 53.5 57.5 62.8 37 .5 40.6 45.2 49.8 53.8 58.0 63.3 38.0 40.9 45. 5 50.5 53.9 58.5 64.2 73.7 82.9 92.5 99.1 103.8 107.6 112.1 74.1 83.6 93.0 99.1 104.0 108. 0 112.2 75.0 84.2 94.3 99 .4 104.2 108. 3 112.8 75.9 85 .6 95.2 100.5 104.6 108.9 112.9 76.5 86 .3 95.7 100.9 105.2 109 .2 113.8 38.3 41.4 46 .0 51.0 54.2 58.7 64.3 69.7 77.1 87.0 96 . 1 101.5 105.2 109.4 114.1 38.4 41.7 46.2 51.1 54.5 59.1 64.1 70.3 77.8 87.6 96.7 101.5 105.3 109.6 114.1 38.4 41.8 46 .7 51.6 54.8 59.6 64.8 70.8 78.5 88.4 97.3 102 . 1 105.5 109 .9 114.7 959 . . . 1.3 3.4 5.7 3.8 4.5 0.7 6. 0 4. 0 8.1 10.4 7 .6 5.5 28. 28. 29. 30. 27 . 28. 28. 3 4.8 5 .0 5 .2 3.7 6.4 5.3 3.7 PERIOD 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.2 25 .2 25.4 25.7 25.8 24.4 24.8 25.5 26 .6 27.0 26.3 26 .7 27 .0 26.5 26 .8 27 .0 26 .8 27 . 1 27 .2 26 .5 26 .8 27.0 27 .7 28.3 29.0 30.0 31.1 32 .3 33.9 35.1 28.0 28.5 29.2 30.3 31.6 32 .7 34.3 35.4 28.1 28.5 27 .9 28.4 29.1 30.1 31.2 32 .5 34. 0 35.2 38.2 38.6 42.1 47 .2 51.9 55.0 60.0 65 .2 37 .9 45.9 50.9 54.2 58.8 64.2 77.1 87 .0 96 .2 101.3 105.2 109.4 114.0 79.3 89. 1 97.7 102 .2 106.0 110.4 115.2 76 . 1 8 5 .6 9 4.8 10 0.4 10 4.7 29 . 31 . > 33. 3 31. 33. 34. 35. 3 35. 27.7 28.2 28.7 29.7 30.6 32 .0 33.3 34.8 38. ) 42. 1 38. 42. 37 .2 39.3 47 . 52 . 1 55. 3 6 0. D 65 . 3 47 . 52 . 55 . 60. 65 . 3.2 48.2 2 .6 6 .2 1 . 1 37.5 40.2 44.5 49.2 53.5 57 .5 62.7 -> 2 ) 1 I 80. 89. 97 . 102. 106 . 4 110. 3 115. 73.0 81.9 91.4 98.3 103.4 107 .2 111.8 75.0 84.5 94.2 99 .7 104.3 108.4 112.6 79. 89. 97 . 102. 106 . 110. 115. 34. 18.3 14.2 11.5 24.2 + 30. 3.7 2 .5 6 .0 5.2 8. 3 8.5 8. 1 6 .4 955... 957 . . . 18.1 18.5 2 1.9 24. 1 25.7 28.0 32.8 41.5 47 .2 55.0 59.3 68.8 80.1 89. 1 AVERAGE 5.1 3.3 5.3 3.8 8.3 8.6 9.7 .0.8 22 .4 .4.4 IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES OVER 6-MONTH SPANS 1953. . . 1954. .. 1955... 1956.. . 4. 1 ERIOD 12.2 12.5 12.9 12.0 12.1 12.6 984... D Annual 12.2 12 .3 12 .9 1953. .. 1954... 1955 . . . 1976 . . . 1 9 7 7 . .. IV Q 4 .3 29.4 30. 5 31.6 33.0 34.5 35.3 0.8 5.2 0.0 3.8 8. 1 3 . 3 108.9 113.4 1987... NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1948. Annual figures are averages of the centered changes. Percent changes are centered on the 4th month of the span. 101 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 733C. C A N A D A - - C H A N G E IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES OVER 6-MONTH (ANNUAL RATE, P E R C E N T ) -0.8 0. 0 0. 0 0.8 3.2 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 .2 0.7 2 .2 2.8 -0.8 0. 8 0.8 0.8 2 .4 4.7 0. 0 0.0 0.7 1.5 2 .2 1 .4 10.3 9.2 981. 982. 983 . 986 . 987 . 5.2 4.4 5.0 9.0 12 .2 8.2 5.1 8.9 9 .2 10.0 9 .7 12 .2 12.0 3.5 4.6 4 .4 4.8 0. 0 0. 0 1.5 1 .4 3. 5 4. 1 4.6 3.8 6.1 2 .9 9.5 5.8 9 .6 9.1 10.0 10.2 13.1 11.7 4.3 3.3 4.2 2.9 0.8 0. 0 -0.7 2 .3 3.8 8.3 12 . 5 9.8 4.6 8. 8 10.8 9 .3 10.8 11.9 10.9 5.2 3. 1 3.4 3.2 0.0 2 .5 0.0 5.0 3.2 1 .5 0.8 0.8 0. 0 2 .2 2 .8 3.4 6 .0 3. 1 5.5 2.3 0.0 0.8 0.0 2.5 3 .2 0. 0 1.5 1 .5 -0.7 1 .5 0.7 0.7 1 .4 3.4 5 .3 3.8 4.8 1 .7 1 .7 0.8 0.0 4. 1 2 .4 0.0 3.1 2 .3 0.0 2 .2 2 .2 1.4 2 .8 3.4 4.6 5 .0 4 .2 1 .7 6.0 10.4 8.9 11.0 12 .0 9 .4 6 .0 2 .3 2 .8 3.6 0.8 0.8 1 .4 3.5 3.4 4.6 5.0 4.8 1 .7 3 .4 5 .4 9.7 12.0 12.6 6 . 1 9.3 8.5 9 .0 12 . 4 12.2 7.3 5.1 3 .5 3.5 4. 5 3. 1964. 9. 980. 981. 982 . 983. 50.0 50.7 52.2 54.3 57 .3 60.9 65.4 69.4 73 .0 75.9 78.1 80.4 84.4 89.4 95.2 99.2 101.9 104.1 105.5 36.8 37.2 38.4 38.6 39 .9 40.0 40.6 41.5 43 . 0 44.3 45.3 46 . 3 54.7 57 .6 61.3 66.0 69.7 73.5 76.1 78.5 80. 7 85.4 90.0 95.4 99 . 3 102 .2 104.5 105.2 50.1 5 1.0 52. 55 . 57. 61. 66 . 70. 73. 76. 78. 81 . 85. 90. 95. 99 . 102 . 104.9 104.9 36 .8 37 .2 38.4 38.7 40.0 39.9 40.8 41.5 43 . 1 50. 1 5 1.1 52.7 55.3 58.0 62.1 66 . 5 70.6 74. 1 76.7 79.0 81.5 86 .2 91.3 95.8 99 . 5 102 . 4 105.0 104.9 36. 8 37 .2 38.4 38.9 40.3 40.0 41 . 1 41.8 43 . 1 44.3 45.3 46 .6 50.1 5 1.2 52.7 58.2 62.5 67.0 7 1.0 74.2 76 .9 79.1 81.8 86 .6 91.7 96 . 4 99.7 102 .5 105 . 1 104.9 4.2 5 .2 6 .8 50.1 1 .2 2.9 50. 5 1 . 52. 50.0 51.0 52.9 1 .0 2. 1 4.4 3.6 0. 0 5. 1 7 . 1 9 . 1 10.9 9.9 6 .0 9 .2 7 .7 9 .8 12.2 10.8 6.9 4.8 4. 1 4.7 5 .4 36.8 37.2 38.4 39.2 39.5 40.4 40.8 50.0 5 1.0 52.9 7 .2 1 .6 4.3 7.3 9.4 87 .0 92.0 97.5 100. 1 102 .9 105 .2 105.0 100. 102. 92.9 97.6 100.8 102 .5 104.7 104.2 735C. WEST GERMANY--CHANGE IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES OVER 6-MONTH (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 953 . 954. -1.1 2 .8 0.5 2 . 1 0. 5 3.6 0. 0 1.0 -3.7 2.8 0.5 -2 .7 1 .6 1 .6 1.5 1.5 3.8 3.5 4.6 1 .0 2 .0 1 .0 3.4 3.4 1.9 3.4 0. 0 2.3 1.8 2 .7 4.8 2 .4 1 .4 0.9 4.0 -3.2 1 .6 2 . 1 3 .6 -1.5 -0.5 0.9 I Q 0.0 -0.8 0.0 2 .4 2 .3 1 .5 1 .5 1.5 1 .5 1.5 1 .4 2 . 1 4 .9 2 .0 3.8 0.8 0. 0 0.8 4. 1 3.9 1 .5 0.8 1.5 -0.5 0.5 0. 0 1.1 2.9 4.4 1 .4 7 7 6 5 3 .4 .9 .4 .2 .5 3.4 2 .6 5.7 3.5 7.3 983. 984. 3.3 -0.8 1 .8 2 .3 -1.3 3 .3 1 .4 1 .6 1.5 1.9 NOTE: These s e r i e s c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t Annual f i g u r e s a r e averages o f t h e c e n t e r e d changes. 102 5 .0 7 . 0 5. 1 3 .7 1 .2 1 .0 -1 . 1 4 6 .7 5 .5 4. 1 0. 8 0 -0 .6 1 .7 1 .7 1 .7 3.0 1 .7 4.4 6 .3 11.2 8.0 8. 7 7 .0 9 .8 13.5 11.0 5.7 5.4 4 .2 5 .2 4. 3 IV Q 3.6 4.2 8.8 12.0 9.0 5.9 9 .3 0.8 0.3 3.3 2.3 1 .5 1.0 0.8 -0.5 2 .0 1 .5 1.4 2 .3 3.4 5.3 3.1 5.1 4.9 9.5 10*. 0 9.9 13.1 3.3 3 .5 39.4 39.7 40.6 40.9 42.0 43 . 1 44.4 45.5 47 • 2 2.3 3 .2 4.6 5.7 7.5 37.2 38. 0 38.8 39.5 40.0 40.8 41.2 42.3 43.5 45 .0 45.9 47 .7 50. 1 51.2 53.2 0.4 1.3 3.3 50.6 51.6 53.7 59.7 63.6 68.1 72 . 0 1 U.I 77.4 79.1 83.3 87.3 93.8 98.4 101.0 103.2 105.0 104. 1 9 .9 4 .4 8.5 2.2 4.8 7.5 9.4 83.6 60.3 65 . 0 87.9 94.2 101.2 103.4 105.2 104.0 Annual 4.5 4.3 1.0 9.5 12 .0 11.3 5.9 9 .0 8.5 9 . 1 12 .2 11.4 3.8 4.8 10. 11. 13. 11 . 5. 5.0 4.6 4.9 4.4 0.1 0.7 0.2 3.0 2.7 2 .0 1 .4 1 .2 0.4 1 .7 1 .9 1 .8 3.3 3.4 4.3 4. 1 4.6 5.5 9.5 9.5 11.7 11.9 8.7 4.9 3.7 4.2 4.2 4 .2 6 .2 5 .0 3.2 1.8 0.2 -1.5 77.7 79.6 84.0 88.6 94.5 98.9 101.5 103.5 105.3 104.2 36.5 37 .2 38.1 38.7 39.8 40.0 40.7 41 .4 42.8 36. 37. 4.3 5.3 50.9 52.4 57.6 6 1.3 65.8 69.7 73.4 76 . 1 78.5 80.7 85 .2 90.0 95.4 99 .2 102.1 104. 5 105.2 0.1 1 .2 2.8 36.8 37 . 3 38.4 39.3 39.8 40.5 40.9 42 .0 43 .0 44. 1 45.3 47 .0 48.5 37.2 37 .9 38.7 39.5 39.9 40.7 41 . 1 42.2 43.3 44.7 45.7 47 .5 48.9 36.8 36 .8 37 .4 38.4 39.1 39.9 40.3 40.9 41.9 43.1 44.3 45.4 46 .8 48.5 50.0 51.1 52.9 50.4 51.4 53 . 4 50.1 51.1 52.9 59 .0 63.1 102 . 105 . 104. 87.2 93.0 97.7 100.7 102 . 6 104.9 104.4 87 .9 94.2 98.6 101.2 103.4 105 .2 104. 1 58.7 62 . 8 67.2 71.2 74.2 77.0 79.0 82.3 86 .7 92.2 97.1 100.2 102.7 104.9 104.6 SPANS AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 0.5 0.5 4.9 0.0 2 .6 1 .5 -0.5 2.0 2 .9 3.7 2 .7 -2.7 1 .6 3.8 2 . 1 2 .6 -1.0 3. 5 1. 5 1 .4 2 .3 4. 1 3. 1 3.4 1 .6 1 .6 2.0 3.9 6 . 1 4.3 6 .5 8. 0 3.9 3.5 6 .0 1980. 981 . II Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 37 , 2 38.4 39.3 39.7 40.6 40.9 42.0 42 .9 44.0 45.3 46 . 9 •3.1 Dec. © 36 . 8 37. 38. 39 . 40. 40. 41 . 42 . 43 . 44. 45. 47 . •0.3 Nov. A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD 0.0 0.8 1 .5 735. WEST GERMANY--INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES ( 1982-84=100) 37 36.4 37.2 38.0 38.7 39.7 40.0 40.8 41.4 hi .1 43.9 45 .2 46 . 1 48.0 Oct. SPANS 8.1 8. 5 6 .4 -2.5 2 .4 0. 3 O.*8 3. 1 -1.5 1 .4 3.6 1 .0 2 .4 0.8 0.3 2 .0 2 .9 -2 . 1 2 .0 2 .2 2 .5 3.4 0.3 0.1 2 .7 2 .2 1 .2 -0.8 3.3 4. 0 1.8 3.2 4.0 1. 1 2.0 1 .7 6 .2 4.8 7 . 1 6 .3 4.0 3 .8 2 .6 2 .0 3.6 3.2 5.9 5 . 1 6 .9 4.2 3 .8 2 .2 1 . 1 -0.8 5•4 5 .7 3. 1 3 .0 2 .7 1.1 0. 0 5 6 5 3 2 .6 .0 .0 .1 .2 3 .3 0 .2 0 5.6 7.2 4.1 2.3 2.5 4.8 5.8 7.3 2 .4 4.3 -0.4 0. 0 0.9 -1.2 1.9 0.4 -1.1 (APRIL 1988) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. 736 . 9 9 9_ 9 9i 9t 9( 9 :99 4. . . 5... Apr. May June July FRANCE- - I N D E X OF CONSUMER ( 1982-84=100) Aug. PRICES Oct. Sept. Nov. FOR PERIOD . 4. * 14.( 14. 1 1 1 2 17.9 19.0 19 . 7 20.5 17.6 18.5 19 . 3 19 . 7 2 2 2 2 2 2.4 22.9 2 3.5 24.2 17 A 19 . ( 19." 20.4 2 1. 22 . _ 22 A 23 A24 . 17 8 9 9 0 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.0 17.2 18.. 19.. 19 . " 2 0 t 21 A 25.9 27 . 4 29.0 30.7 32 . 6 6.1 7.6 9.1 0.8 2.9 2 2 2 3 1'/ 3 3 26 . 3 27 . 8 29.3 31.1 33.3 26.2 27 . " 29.2 31 . 33. 25. 27 . 28 . 30. 32 . 40.4 44.7 49 . 0 53.8 58.7 65.2 74.1 84.4 92 . 9 102.3 109 . 6 115.4 18.0 0.8 5.0 9.5 4.2 9.3 6.0 4.9 5.4 3.4 10 3 . 1 11 0 . 3 11 5.7 8.2 4 4 4 5 5 6 t 7 86.2 9 4.3 103.5 110.6 115.9 118.4 41.6 45 .6 50.1 54.6 59 . 9 66 . 9 76.1 86.7 95.1 103.9 110.9 116.1 118.5 41.2 45. 49.8 54.^ 59.( 66 . 1 75 . . 86 . 94. 3 103. 110.( 115. 118. 39 . 43 . 48 . 52 . 37 . 33 . 7 2 . 81 . 91 . 100 . 108. 0 114.3 14.5 14.8 14.3 14.7 14.3 14.8 14.5 14.9 4.6 4.8 14.6 14.8 . . . . 7 .0 8 . 4 9. 3 9 . 7 17.2 18.6 19.3 19.7 17.5 18.6 19.3 19.7 17 . 6 18.6 19. 3 19.7 17.6 18.5 19.3 19.7 17.7 18.5 19.3 19.6 17.8 18.6 19 . 4 19.8 17.8 18.7 19.5 19.9 17.9 18.7 19 . 6 20.0 7.9 8.9 9.6 0.2 3* * " 4*.!! 1 . 5 2 .5 3 . 0 3.6 2 1 6 22.5 23 0 23.6 l i b 22.5 23 1 23.7 2 1 7 22.5 2 3 1 23.8 2 1 7 22.5 2 3 2 23.9 2 1 9 22.6 2 3 5 23.8 22 0 22.7 2 3 3 23.9 22 1 22.7 2 3 3 23.9 22 2 22 . 8 2 3 3 24.0 5 .2 6 .6 8.1 9.5 1 .2 25.3 26.6 28.2 29.7 31.4 25.3 26.8 28.3 29.8 31.5 25 . 3 26.9 28.5 30.0 31.6 25.4 27.0 28.6 30.2 31.8 25.5 27.1 28.7 30.3 32.0 25.6 27.2 28.8 30.4 32.2 25.7 27.3 28.9 30.6 32.4 6 .7 42 . 1 • 6.1 0.3 4.8 ?0.4 8.2 7 .0 37 . 6 6 . 0 1 34.6 1 11.4 1 16 . 1 37.2 42.4 46.4 50.5 55.2 60.8 68.9 77.7 88.5 96.7 105.3 112.0 115.9 37.7 42.7 46 . 8 51.0 55.8 6 1.4 69.7 7 8.4 89.6 97.6 106.0 112.8 116.1 38.2 43 . 1 47 . 2 5 1.7 56 . 3 62 . 0 70.6 79.5 90.6 98.8 106 . 7 113.6 38.7 43.4 47.5 52.2 56.9 62.6 7 1.2 80.2 91.3 99.5 107.2 114.2 16.9 39.1 43.7 47.7 52.6 57.3 63.1 7 1.7 81.0 92.0 100.1 107 . 7 114.6 117.2 39.6 44.0 48.2 53.1 58.0 64.0 72.7 82.4 92.3 100.9 108.5 115.1 117.4 40.0 44.3 48.5 53.4 58.4 64.7 73.4 83.4 92.5 101.5 109.1 115.2 117.5 0 # f, 736C. FRANCE--CHANGE IN INDEX OF CONSUMER P R I C E S (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) OVER 6 - MONTH 2 . -5.4 1.4 2.8 - 1 . 4 0 . 0 2 . 8 11.1 7.0 13.c 5 . 18.3 3 . 4 19.5 1.1 23 . 4.2 4.1 5.3 4.1 3 . 5 # 3 . 1 6 . 2 3 . 1 8.3 2.7 3.5 2 .6 0.8 4.0 5.6 1.8 2.6 2.6 1.7 4.0 5.6 2.7 1.7 2.5 2.5 4.8 5 3 2 1 5 3 1 1 4 6.2 6.2 6.1 5 . 8.6 15.6 9.2 8.8 1.0 0.7 2.5 2.9 10.4 14.8 9.6 9.2 10.4 9.9 12,0 12.4 8.5 7.5 2.8 4.3 0.0 4.2 5.8 1.4 1 .4 2 .8 -1.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 -4.1 1.4 2.8 - 5 .4 1 ,L 957 . . . 958. . . 0.0 21.1 5 .5 12.2 8.3 10.9 3. 1 3. 1 ! 959 . . . 960. . . 961 . . . 962... 963. . . 964... 965. . . 966. . . 967 . . . 968... 969. . . 5 .6 4. 3 1 .0 5.0 5.8 1.8 1 .8 3.4 3 .4 4. 1 0.0 19.5 6.8 4.3 1.0 5.0 3.8 1.8 2.6 4.3 2.5 4.1 2.7 17.8 8.0 4.3 0.0 4.9 3.8 1.8 5.3 2.6 1.7 4.0 97 1 . . . 6.3 6.2 6.9 973... 974... 975. . . 976 . . . 977.. . 978. . . 979. . . 980 . . . 981. . . 982 . . . 4.9 15.8 11.6 10.5 9.5 8.3 9 . 7 14.8 6.1 16.9 11.0 9.9 9.0 8.6 10.0 14.3 6.1 17.3 9.8 8.9 9.8 9.7 10.6 14.5 8.0 16 . 4 9.2 9 .3 0.6 1 .2 1 .6 2 .7 12 . 3 11.4 11.6 0.0 5 7 23.3 23.8 25 . 26 . 28. 29 . 31 . 4 33 . 37 . 42 . 4 46 .1• 5 O.( 55. 3 60. 6 8. 77 . 88 . 96.8 105.3 112.1 116.0 25.4 27 . 0 28.6 30.2 31.8 25.7 27.3 28.9 30.6 32.4 38.7 43.4 47.5 52.2 56.8 62 . 6 7 1.2 80.2 91.3 99.5 107.2 114.1 116.9 40.0 44.3 48.6 53.4 58.4 64.6 73.4 83.4 92.6 101.6 109.1 115.2 117.6 2 1.8 AVERAGE -9.2 0.0 1.4 0.0 2.9 1.4 23 . 23.6 17.8 18.7 19.5 19.9 2 1 0 22.1 22.7 2 3.3 23.9 6 .8 6 . 0 1 .6 6.6 6.0 1.2 737 . 6.9 5.4 2.4 ITALY- 9 .8 9 .9 10.4 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.1 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.7 13.5 9.8 9 .c 0 .4 966 . . . FOR -1.8 0.5 2.3 -1.9 1.8 1.5 2 1.9 6.8 24.4 5.6 6 . 0.0 5.1 -1.0 7.1 0.9 19.5 6.8 4.3 0.7 8.3 10.0 3.7 4.2 3.8 4.6 2 .7 0.0 3 .4 5.0 6 .4 3. 1 . 3 2 . 3 . 4 5 . 3 7 . 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.4 6.6 6.3 2.7 2.6 3.5 2.5 5.8 7.1 4.5 1.8 3.2 3.4 2.5 4.1 5.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 1.7 4.3 23.3 5.6 4.7 0.0 6.1 4.5 3.0 2.4 2.9 3.1 6.1 6.9 6.4 5.4 5.3 12.4 9.6 5.0 2.9 4.3 4.6 4.6 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.6 5.4 5.8 5.4 5.8 9.8 14.6 9.8 9.5 9.2 9.8 12.4 13.2 5 . 4 5 .4 5 . 3 5.3 5.3 6.6 6.5 5.0 6.2 1 1 .3 14 . 8 . 9 . 9 . 10.2 13.3 8. 9 10.4 9 .4 10.1 13.2 12.8 10.8 13.7 9.4 10.8 8. 1 10.0 12.7 12 . 9 12 . 3 13. 3 9. 3 9 m 3 1 . 3 9 . 2 4 14.3 12.4 10.2 8.8 8.0 9.1 14.1 12.9 14.7 11.7 10.1 8.8 8.4 10.1 15.0 12 . 5 5.7 16.7 10.8 9.8 9.4 8.9 0.1 4.5 9.0 15.6 9.3 9.1 10.7 10.6 12.0 12.7 10.7 13.7 8.9 10.2 9.0 10.2 13.0 12.7 13.8 12.4 10.0 9.0 7.9 9.5 14.4 12.9 i c n 1 5 . 9 1 3 , 4 7.8 9 . 1 10.0 10.4 1.8 8.7 7 . 2 9 . 8 y . 0 6.9 5.4 2.4 8 . 8 7 . 8 9 . 3 7 . 1 5 . 9 6 . 6 3.7 1.7 4 . 2 3 . 0 4 . 1 2 . 7 .6 .6 .7 .7 . 1 1 . 3 7 .4 14 . 13. 7 . 3 4 . 2 . 7.2 3.7 2 .9 PRICES © 6 .8 3.3 3 . 1 6 . 2 5 . 8 5 . 7 2 . 5 1 . 6 1 . 0 4 . 5 4 . 3 3 . 6 9 . 9 9 . 9 6.6 5.9 1.3 AVERAGE 9.9 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.1 3.0 3.7 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.8 11.3 11.1 11.3 11.6 12.0 13.0 13.8 9.8 0.2 10.4 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.2 3.0 3.9 9.8 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.8 11.3 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.2 3 3.0 13.9 9.8 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1 .2 1 . 1 1 .4 1 .6 2 .2 3. 1 4.0 9 . 9 1. 1 . 1., 1 .5 1 .? 2 .c 3.5 9.9 9.9 0.4 0 • 7 0 . 8 1 .2 1 .0 1 .3 1 .5 2 . 1 3. 0 3 .6 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.3 3.3 4.0 10.2 10.4 10.8 1 1.0 1 1. 1 1. 1 1. 1 1. 7 12. 7 1 3. 3 10.2 10.5 10.8 1 1 . 1 1 . 11.: .1.5 1 1 A 12.5 13,4 14. 1 14.7 4 . 7 4.7 4.7 4.8 14.8 4.8 14.8 4.8 4.8 96 8 ! ! ! 969. . . 15'.5 15.7 b'.l 5.5 5.7 5.5 5 .9 5.5 5.9 15.5 16.0 5.5 6.1 15.5 16.1 5 . 5 6 . 1 197 1 . . . 1972... 1973. . . 19 7 4 . . . 975... 9 76. . . 9 77 . . . 978... 17.3 18.0 19 . 6 22.0 27.5 30.5 37.3 42. 7 48.3 38.5 17. 18., 17.7 18.5 20.6 24.1 28.8 33.3 40.0 44.9 5 1.6 62.1 74.9 86.3 100.1 111.3 120.9 128.6 n'.i 8.6 0.7 .4.7 8.9 33.5 + 0.3 +5.3 17.7 18.8 20.7 25.2 29.1 33.8 40.7 45.4 17.8 18.9 _0.9 26 . 0 -9.3 34.4 + 1.0 46 . 1 1.9 33.2 5.7 87.7 101.1 111.6 12 1 . 4 128.6 52.5 63.9 76.2 89.2 101.5 112.0 12 1 . 7 128.8 14.2 9.8 9 .9 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 . 1 1 . 1 1 . 3 1.5 1 .9 2 .8 3.5 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.7 .0.8 11.3 11.1 11.3 11.6 2.1 3.0 3.7 1 15 . C 4.7 5.5 6.2 5. 15. 16. 5 ." .6 . _ 5 .*5 5 .7 14.8 15.3 5.5 15.9 7.9 9.1 1.2 6.5 9.7 5.6 1.4 6.6 17 . 19 . 2 1 .3 27 . 30. 0 36 . 3 42 . 47 . 0 FOR D9.9 82.0 95.4 107 . 4 116.6 125 . 9 9 < 2 .4 7 . 8 31 . 38. 9 A 1 .2 83. 96 . " 108., 117.8 126 . 8 49 . 6 60.2 72 . 2 83 . 8 97 . 6 109.2 118.6 127.2 7 .4 8.4 0.2 3 . 2 8.2 32 . 7 39 . 2 44. 1 0.4 1 .0 3.2 34.5 )8.5 1 0. 0 119.6 127 . 6 17.6 18.4 -0.5 23.7 -8.5 33.2 39.7 +4.6 1.1 3 1 .6 4.2 85.5 99.5 110.7 120.3 128.1 NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1948. Annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 5 .3 7 .2 0.4 102 . 8 112.8 122.2 129 . 2 6.3 8.7 2.3 104.5 113.9 123.6 129.9 67. 8 80 . 0 93 . 5 105 . 6 114. 5 124. 5 130.4 Percent changes are centered on the 4th month of the spat 18. 19 . L 2 1 " 7 * 3 18.2 19.8 30. 36. 7 .7 31.1 38.0 17.6 18.4 20.4 23.7 .8.5 33.1 39 . 6 47 . 68. ( 80 A 94. 106 . 115.^ 125 . 130.8 3 9.4 71.1 33.0 )6 . 6 1 38.4 1 7.7 1 6.6 3 1 .6 74. 1 35 . 4 ?9 . 4 1 10.7 1 _0.3 1 28. 1 I T / i / n 1 4 . 0 9 . 4 PERIOD 9 . 8 9 . 9 1 0 . 2 1 0 . 2 1 0 . 1 1 0 . 4 1 0 . 4 1 0 . 4 1 0 . 8 1 0 . 7 1 0 . 7 9 . 8 1 0 . 8 1 1 . 0 1 0 . 9 1 1 . 3 1 1 . 1 1 1 . 2 1 1 . 1 1 1 . 3 1 1 . 1 1 1 . 4 1 1 . 4 1 1 . 4 1 1 . 6 1 1 . 7 1 1 . 6 1 2 . 2 1 2 . 5 1 2 . 2 1 3 . 0 1 3 . 3 1 3 . 0 1 3 . 9 1 4 . 1 1 3 . 8 1 4 . 8 1 4 . 9 1 4 . 8 1 5 . 4 1 5 . 5 1 5 . 3 1 5 . 5 1 5 . 6 1 5 . 5 1 6 . 1 1 6 . 2 1 6 . 0 1 6 . 8 7 .4 8.3 0.0 3.0 7.8 31.7 38.7 43 .6 PERIOD -7.1 0.9 1.9 9.8 9 .9 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.9 3.6 o.e 0.8 3 . -0.9 1.4 0.9 ( 1982-84 = 100) 953 . . . 954. . . 955... 956... 957 . . . 1958. . . 959 . . . 960... 961 . . . 962. . . 963 . . . 964. . . c 4 A A A ." 10. 13. 3 12 . 3 15. :R c 17.2 3.4 4.7 3.1 6.5 4.2 5.3 3.3 1.4 2.3 4.1 6.4 5.3 4.5 5.4 3 . 6 . 7.1 4.8 3.3 j ' 2!" 2.3 4.3 0.9 IU.B 6.5 5.9 1.2 A . " . L .c 1.4 0 . 0 1.4 5*3 6 .7 5 .7 1.4 14 . SPANS -6 . 7 1 .4 1 . 4 953. . . 954. . . 955... 1979... 1980... 1981 . . . 1982... 1983... 1984. . . 1985... 1986... 1987 . . . Annual 14.4 14.8 14.6 14.9 . . . . . . .. IV Q 14.5 14.8 14.5 14.8 984. 985 . 986. 987. III Q 14.5 14.8 14.5 14.8 9 4. . . 9 75. . . 9 76 . . . 9 77 . . . 9 78. . . 9 79. . . 980. . . 981 . . . 982.. . 983 . . . 984. . . 985. . . 986. . . 987... 11 Q 4.7 4.8 14.5 14.8 9 6 ... 9 9 8!!. 9 9. . . 9 0. . . 9 1. . . 9 2. . . lQ AVERAGE 4.6 4.7 8. . 9 .. 0. . 1 . . Dec. © 1 7 . 2 1 6 . 8 1 7 . 7 1 7 . 9 1 7 . 6 1 8 . 8 1 9 . 2 1 8 . 6 2 0 . 8 2 1 . 4 2 0 . 6 2 5 . 3 2 6 . 9 2 4 . 6 2 9 . 1 3 0 . 0 2 8 . 8 3 3 . 9 3 6 . 2 4 0 . 7 4 1 . 9 4 0 . 1 4 5 . 6 4 7 . 0 4 5 . 1 5 2 . 7 5 5 . 8 5 2 . 1 6 4 . 1 6 7 . 6 6 3 . 2 7 6 . 4 7 9 . 9 7 5 . 4 8 9 . 1 9 3 . 3 3 3 . 6 8 7 . 7 1 0 1 . 8 1 0 5 . 4 1 0 0 . 8 1 1 2 . 1 1 1 4 . 6 1 1 1 . 4 1 2 1 . 8 1 2 4 . 5 1 2 1 . 0 1 2 8 . 9 1 3 0 . 4 1 2 8 . 5 (APRIL 1988) 103 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Q Dec. ITALY--CHANGE IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES OVER 6-MONTH SPANS (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 19 5 3 ... 1954. .. 1955... 1956 . . . 1957 ... 1958. 1959. .. 1960... 1961 ... 1962 . . . 1963. . . 1964. . . 1965 ... 1966 . . . 1967 ... 1968. .. 1969. .. 1970. .. 1971. .. 1972 ... 1973 ... 1974. . . 1975... 1976 ... 1977. . . 1978. .. 1979. .. 1980.. . 1981 ... 1982 . . . 1983. . . 1984. . . 1985... 1986. . . 1987 . . . 0.0 0.0 4.0 2. 1 2 .0 4.0 5 .6 7 .8 0. 0 5 .5 1.8 0.0 1 .8 0. 0 5 .9 1.9 0. 0 4.1 4 .0 3. 8 0. 0 3. 6 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 6 .2 0.0 1.9 0.0 3.6 0.0 1.8 0.0 6 .2 3.7 3 .5 3.6 1 .8 1 .7 0.0 3 .9 5 . 0 3.5 4.5 21. 19. 22.3 20.2 14.8 14.2 10.7 11.2 6.6 5 .6 12 .8 23.3 11.3 20.0 17.5 12 . 1 13. 10. 0.0 5 .2 2 .4 4.8 11 .5 27 . 1 10 .4 20.6 17.9 13.5 16.8 18.2 18.9 16 .0 14. 1 9 .8 10.0 5.5 7 .8 11.5 27.6 10.3 20.3 16.4 12.9 18.0 17.9 18. 0 18.4 13.1 9.3 9 .6 5.5 7.8 11.2 31.6 11.7 2 0.0 12 .7 12 . 7 2 1.4 18.6 15.9 19 .4 12.4 6 .8 6.3 4.0 197 2 973 974. 975 976. 1 9 77 7 . 7 .4 1 .8 3.6 3.5 5.2 1 .8 11.8 7 .8 5.8 .6 .8 .0 .8 .8 .3 11.0 13.0 12 .2 22.8 12.4 11.4 2 1.6 2 1.6 16.0 18.1 11.7 6 .9 7 .2 3 .4 11.3 23.2 11.2 12.7 25 .2 2 0.8 15.5 16 .5 11.1 7 .4 6 .0 3.9 12.7 24.9 10.5 13.5 25 .6 20.5 15.7 14.3 11.5 7 .8 6 .0 3.0 5.5 5.2 1.5 4.3 2 3.5 20.1 16.1 14.8 11.4 5.7 12 .0 2 1.1 5.3 12 . 1 2 1.6 11.4 20.5 18.9 12 . 1 17 . 3 2 1.0 20.5 14.7 14. 1 10.8 10.7 6 .2 18.2 20. 1 19.8 19.8 20. 20. 20. 2 1. 22. 26.3 27.5 65.9 27.0 27 .5 29.2 31.0 31.5 33.6 36 . 3 38.2 40.8 42 .9 47 .9 59.4 66 . 1 78.2 81.3 84.4 91.2 78.0 81.6 85 . 1 91.5 26.6 27 .7 29.8 31.1 32 .5 34.9 36.7 38.7 41.9 43 .4 49 .7 60.8 67.2 73.7 79.4 82 .6 85 .3 92.7 26 .8 28.2 30.2 31.3 33 .0 34.6 36.7 39 .4 42 .0 43 .8 49 .9 62.2 68.2 74.2 79.9 82 .8 86 .4 92 .8 26 .8 28.0 29.9 31.1 33.0 34.6 36.6 39 .4 41.6 43 .6 50.3 62.7 67.9 74.2 79.1 82 .0 86 .0 93 .0 26 . 28. 30. 31. 33. 34. 36. 39 . 41. 44.0 52.0 62 .9 67.8 75.1 78.9 81.9 86 .6 92 .5 99 .5 100.4 102.7 99.8 101.2 103.4 100.7 102 .9 98.7 100.4 103.1 25.7 26.8 28.9 30. 5 32 . 0 33.5 34.8 37 .8 40.0 41.9 45 .0 55.5 63.6 69.6 76 . 1 79.7 82.1 88.0 93.8 96 .8 26 30.3 31.8 33.4 34.6 37 .6 0. 0 1.7 4.4 4.2 3.2 26 . 3 27 . 5 29.8 31.2 32.1 33.7 35.5 38.4 40.6 42.7 46 .7 57.7 65.4 65.9 75.7 79.2 82 . 0 87 .3 93.8 96 .8 98.9 100.7 103.4 76.1 79.6 81.8 88 .0 93.6 96 .7 98. 5 101.4 103.0 76 .6 80.3 88. 7 77.8 81.1 83.5 90.2 78.5 81.7 84.3 91.0 96.8 99 . 1 101.6 103.4 97.5 99.5 101.8 104.1 97 .9 100.5 102.5 97 .9 99 .9 101.8 27 .5 29.4 31.0 31.5 33.4 35.5 40.9 42.9 97.3 99.5 102 .0 36 . 3 38.1 40.8 43 .2 48.3 60.0 66 .0 72.0 78.1 81.8 84.3 91.4 99 .3 101.1 101.2 104.9 JAPAN--CHANGE IN INDEX 01 CONSUMER PRICES OVER 6-MONTH SPANS (ANNUAL RA1 E, PERCENT) 10.4 1 .0 -1.0 1 .0 6. 1 0.0 3.8 7.3 13. 1 4.5 9 .5 13.8 0 -1 0 0 6 .0 2 .0 1 .9 2 .8 7.3 5.1 5.5 7 .6 20.1 10.1 5 .9 5.9 2 .2 1 .4 0.4 0.6 1 .2 1 .6 1 .4 0. 0 9.3 3. 0 1.0 1 .2 2 .6 2.1 -0.6 NOTE: These s e r i e s c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h Annual f i g u r e s are a v e r a g e s o f t h e c e n t e r e d c h a n g e s . 104 6 .4 6.3 8.5 3.6 3 .3 2 .2 -0.2 2 .9 0.0 1948. 3.7 8.7 5.3 17.8 16. 3 8 .9 9 .7 5.8 6.8 3 .4 4.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 -0.6 19 . 3 0.0 -2.0 15.6 -2.0 -1.0 17.5 9.8 5 .5 5.7 14.5 2 0.8 8. 7 9 .2 3 .9 3.0 5.2 3 .4 3.3 1 .6 0.6 -1.7 6.5 4.3 3.5 1 .8 2.2 1 .7 -0.4 18.7 20.1 19.9 20.0 20.5 20.6 20.9 21.8 22 .6 24.6 26 .6 27.5 29.5 31.0 31.8 33.7 35.5 38. 3 40.7 42.8 47 . 3 57.9 65 .7 7 1.8 78.2 81.4 84.1 90.8 95.3 97.8 100. 0 102 .0 104.2 105 . 1 19 .2 20. 1 19.6 19.8 20.7 20.7 2 1.0 21.9 23.1 24.6 26 .6 27.6 29.4 31.0 31.9 34.0 36.4 38.3 41.2 43 .2 48.6 60.1 66 .4 72.7 7 8.5 82 .0 101.9 104.4 104.6 11. 21. 20.2 20. 1 17 . 5 16 .6 12 .6 8.6 4.6 6.5 32.8 10.5 10.2 10.4 3.1 -0.5 8.4 4 .4 ; 4th 19 . 0 20.0 19.8 29.5 30.9 32 .2 34.0 35.9 38.5 40.9 42 . 9 47 .9 59 . 0 65.9 72.2 78.0 81.3 84.4 90.9 95 . 4 98.0 99 . 8 102.1 104.2 104.8 12 . 0 -1.1 -0.1 3.9 11. 28. 14. 27. 6 .3 17.3 17.7 9 .6 9. 1 6 .0 5 .4 6. 1 0.4 3.8 1.2 -0.6 19.7 20.2 20.6 2 1.2 2 1.4 21.9 23.8 24.9 26 . 8 28.1 30.0 31.3 33.0 34.6 36 . 7 39.5 41.7 43 .8 50.7 62.6 68.0 74.5 79.3 82 .2 86 .3 92.8 96 .8 99.1 100.8 103.1 104.8 104.6 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 5 .2 -3. 0 5.2 3.0 -1.9 .0 6 . 1 8.5 5.8 4.3 10.5 16.7 19.1 13.2 24 .4 11.1 13.5 24.8 20.5 15.8 15 .2 11.3 8.0 6.3 3.5 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 19 .9 19.6 19 .6 2 0.2 20.5 21.0 2 1.4 2 1.9 23. 18.8 20.1 19.7 9 .3 10.4 30. 0 11.8 20.8 12 .7 11.9 20.8 20.3 15.9 18.8 12 . 0 6.6 6.6 3.6 (u) 19 .9 19.8 19.6 20.0 20.5 21.1 2 1.4 2 1.9 23.8 26 . 0 32 . 1 33.7 35.1 38.0 40. 1 42.2 45.8 56 . 3 64.1 3. 3 10.0 11.0 20.2 20.2 20.0 20.3 20.8 2 1.4 2 1.4 22 .0 23.7 25.7 26 .7 28.8 30.5 32 .0 33.5 34.8 37 .7 40.0 41.9 44.8 55.9 63.5 20.1 19.8 19 .8 20.2 20.4 20.8 2 1.6 22.3 10.1 9.0 30.9 1 .3 2 .6 6.3 6.0 4.5 8.6 16.0 19.5 2 0.0 19 .6 20.0 20.7 2 0.8 2 1.1 22.0 23.2 18.6 20.1 19.8 19.8 20.6 20.5 20.8 21.8 22 . 25.5 1 .9 5 .6 -3.5 1 .0 4. 1 2 . 1 2 .7 2 .3 0.4 0.7 2 .0 4. 0 5 .8 0.6 4.9 -0.6 0.6 2 . 3 5 .8 8.2 5.6 19.1 2 0.0 19.7 19.8 20.8 20.8 2 1.2 22 .0 23.1 18.6 20.2 20.1 19.9 20.4 2 0.5 2 1.0 21.7 22 .7 ... ... .. ... .. . . 978. . . 979. . . 1980. . . 1981 . . . 1982 . . . 1983. . . 1984. . . 1985. . . 1986 . . . 1987 . . . 5.6 3.5 3.9 . 1 . 0 .9 .9 . 7 . 5 19.0 20.2 19.6 19.6 20.6 20.6 20.8 2 1.8 23.0 18.3 2 0.1 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.8 2 1.6 22.5 18.0 20.1 19.8 19.6 20.4 20.5 21.0 2 1.5 22.2 738C. 1953 . . . 1954. . . 1955 . . . 1956 . . . 1957 . . . 1958. . . 1959 . . . 1960... 1961.. . 1962 . . . 1963. . . 1964... 1965. . . 1966 . . . 1967.. . 1968. . . 1969. . . 1970... 197 1 . . . 1 1 5 -3 3 3 3 2 . 1 4. 0 3. 1 .8 1.3 0. 0 5 .2 2 .4 J A P A N - - I N D E X OF C O N S U M E R P R I C E S (1982-84=100) 1953. . . 1954 ... 1955. .. 1956 . . . 1957 ... 1958. .. 1959. .. 1960... 1961 . . . 19 1963.. . 1964. .. 1965.. . 1966 . . . 1967 ... 1968. .. 1969. .. 197 0... 197 1 ... 1972 ... 1973. .. 1974... 1975... 1976 ... 1977 ... 1978. .. 1979. .. 1980. . . 1981. .. 1982... 1983 ... 1984. . . 1985... 19 1987 2 . 1 4. 0 1 .9 3 .8 6 .7 6 .2 4.4 1 .4 5 .5 1 .3 5 .2 6.3 3.5 5 .7 10.7 18.7 12.4 19.7 20.0 12 .4 15.6 21.3 2 1.6 15.0 14.1 11.0 10.7 6.8 Annual AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 0.0 4. 0 0. 0 0. 0 IV Q 1.5 1. 1 3 .4 0.8 -1.9 month o f 1 .9 -0.2 the span. 6.5 6.6 19.7 19 . 1 9.3 4.4 3.6 7 . 1 5 .5 3.9 3. 3 1 .9 2.5 1 .2 -0.9 F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Cyclical Indicators Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning in— Series July 1981 LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average weekly hours, mfg 5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted) 8. Mfrs/new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods 32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries 20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1982 dollars 29. Building permits, new private housing units 36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (smoothed1) 99. Change insensitive materials prices (smoothed1) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding 910. Composite index of 11 leading indicators 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars 47. Index of industrial production 57. Mfg. and trade sales in 1982 dollars 920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted) 77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.—actual data as a percent of trend 109. Average prime rate charged by banks 101. Commercial and industrial loans in 1982 dollars 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income 930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 5/81 7/81 10/80 4/81 4/81 9/80 (-2) (0) (-9) (-3) (-3) (—10) 7/81 10/80 11/80 NSC 5/81 4/81 3/81 (0) (-9) (-8) (-2) (-3) (-4) 7/81 (0) 8/81 ( + 1) 7/81 (0) 1/81 (-6) 7/81 (0) Jan. 1980 3/79 9/78 12/78 3/79 3/79 6/78 LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted) 77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.—actual data as a percent of trend 109. Average prime rate charged by banks 101. Commercial and industrial loans in 1982 dollars 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income 930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators Apr. 1960 Aug. 1957 July 1953 4/73 (-7) 2/73 ( - 9 ) 3/73 (-8) 5/73 (-6) 10/73 (-1) 12/72 ( - 1 1 ) 10/68 1/69 11/68 6/69 4/69 2/69 (-14) (-11) (-13) (-6) (-8) (—10) 5/59 4/59 2/59 10/59 3/59 11/58 (-11) (-12) (-14) (-6) (-13) (-17) 11/55 9/55 7/55 10/55 11/56 2/55 (-21) (-23) (-25) (-22) (-9) (-30) 4/53 (-3) 9/52 ( - 1 0 ) 4/53 (-3) 7/52 (-12) 2/53 (-5) 11/52 (-8) 1/79 ( - 1 2 ) 4/79 (-9) NSC 1/78 (-24) 3/78 (-22) 3/79 (-10) 4/78 (-21) 4/73 ( - 7 ) 1/74 ( + 2) 1/73 ( - 1 0 ) 1/73 (-10) 2/73 (-9) 3/73 (-8) 12/72 (-11) 11/68 2/69 12/68 1/69 1/69 4/69 11/68 (-13) (-10) (-12) (-11) (-11) (-8) (-13) 4/59 ( - 1 2 ) 11/58 (-17) 7/59 ( - 9 ) NSC 6/59 (-10) 5/59 (-11) 4/59 (-12) 9/56 9/55 7/56 1/56 6/55 9/55 5/55 (-11) (-23) (-13) (-19) (-26) (-23) (-27) 2/53 4/53 1/53 NSC 10/52 3/53 10/52 3/80 ( + 2) 1/80 (0) 3/80 ( + 2) 3/79 (-10) 1/80 (0) 10/74 ( + 11/73 11/73 11/73 11/73 3/70 NSC 10/69 10/69 10/69 12/81 ( + 5) 1/82 ( + 6) 7/79 6/80 (-6) ( + 5) 1/82 ( + 6) 8/81 ( + 1) 9/82 ( + 14) NSC 6/82 ( + 11) 6/80 4/80 3/80 NSC 4/80 ( + 5) ( + 3) ( + 2) ( + 3) 11) (0) (0) (0) (0) 9/73 ( - 2 ) 3/75 ( + 16) 3/75 9/74 9/74 4/74 12/74 ( + 16) ( + 10) ( + 10) ( + 5) ( + 13) ( + 3) (-2) (-2) (-2) 10/69 ( - 2 ) 11/70 ( + 11) 1/70 2/70 8/70 NSC 3/70 ( + 1) ( + 2) ( + 8) ( + 3) 4/60 6/60 1/60 1/60 1/60 (0) ( + 2) (-3) (-3) (-3) 3/57 8/57 2/57 2/57 2/57 (-5) (0) (-6) (-6) (-6) 6/60 1/61 ( + 2) ( + 9) 9/57 4/58 ( + 1) ( + 8) 2/61 ( + 10) 7/60 ( + 3) NSC 12/60 ( + 8) 6/60 ( + 2) 4/58 12/57 9/57 1/58 12/57 (+ (+ (+ (+ (+ 8) 4) 1) 5) 4) (-5) (-3) (-6) (-9) (-4) (-9) 6/53 (-1) 10/53 ( + 3) 7/53 (0) 4/53 (-3) 5/53 (-2) 9/53 .12/53 ( + 2) ( + 5) 12/53 2/54 6/53 4/54 12/53 ( + 5) ( + 7) (-1) ( + 9) ( + 5) Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning in— Nov. 1982 COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars 47. Index of industrial production 57. Mfg. and trade sales in 1982 dollars 920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators Dec. 1969 (-10) (-16) (-13) (-10) (-10) (-19) Series LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average weekly hours, mfg 5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted) 8. Mfrs.'new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods 32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries 20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1982 dollars 29. Building permits, new private housing units 36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (smoothed1) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed1) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding 910. Composite index of 11 leading indicators 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index Nov. 1973 July 1980 Mar. 1975 Nov. 1970 Feb. 1961 Apr. 1958 May 1954 9/82 (-2) 9/82 (-2) 11/82 (0) 5/82 (-6) 8/82 (-3) 10/81 (-13) 7/80 5/80 5/80 6/80 5/80 4/80 (0) (-2) (-2) (-1) (-2) (-3) 3/75 (0) 3/75 (0) 3/75 (0) 2/75 (-1) 12/75 ( + 9) 3/75 (0) 9/70 10/70 11/70 12/70 10/70 1/70 (-2) (-1) (0) ( + 1) (-1) (-10) 12/60 2/61 1/61 3/60 3/61 12/60 (-2) (0) (-1) (-11) ( + 1) (-2) 4/58 4/58 4/58 12/57 3/58 2/58 (0) (0) (0) (-4) (-1) (-2) 4/54 9/54 10/53 12/53 3/54 9/53 (-1) ( + 4) (-7) (-5) (-2) (-8) 1/83 ( + 2) 12/81 (-11) 7/82 (-4) NSC 12/82 ( + 1) 3/82 (-8) 7/82 (-4) 8/80 6/80 NSC 5/80 5/80 5/80 4/80 ( + 1) (-1) 4/75 ( + 1) 1/75 (-2) 12/74 ( - 3 ) 1/75 (-2) 3/75 (0) 2/75 (-1) 3/75 (0) 3/70 1/71 6/70 4/70 10/70 10/70 11/70 (-8) ( + 2) (-5) (-7) (-1) (-1) (0) 2/61 (0) 3/60 (-11) 10/60 (-4) NSC 4/61 ( + 2) 12/60 (-2) 12/60 (-2) 3/58 11/57 12/57 1/58 2/58 2/58 12/57 (-1) (-5) (-4) (-3) (-2) (-2) (-4) 11/53 11/53 9/53 NSC 12/53 11/53 1/54 (-6) (-6) (-8) 12/82 9/82 12/82 10/82 12/82 7/80 (0) 7/80 (0) 7/80 (0) 6/80 (-1) 7/80 (0) 4/75 ( + 1) 2/75 ( - 1 ) 3/75 (0) 3/75 (0) 3/75 (0) 11/70 NSC 11/70 11/70 11/70 (0) (0) (0) (0) 2/61 (0) 12/60 (-2) 2/61 (0) 1/61 (-1) 2/61 (0) 5/58 ( + 1) 4/58 (0) 4/58 (0) 4/58 (0) 4/58 (0) 8/54 ( + 3) 4/54 (-1) 4/54 ( - 1 ) 12/53 (-5) 8/54 ( + 3) 6/72 ( + 19) 2/73 ( + 27) 7/61 ( + 5) 4/62 ( + 14) 10/58 ( + 6) 5/59 ( + 13) 5/55 ( + 12) 4/55 ( + 11) 4/59 ( + 12) 8/58 ( + 4) 8/58 ( + 4) 11/58 ( + 7) 8/58 ( + 4) 6/55 ( + 13) 7/55 ( + 14) 8/54 ( + 3) 11/54 ( + 6) 4/55 ( + 11) ( + 1) (-2) ( + 1) (-1) ( + 1) 7/83 ( + 8) 1/84 ( + 14) 7/84 ( + 20) 7/83 ( + 8) 10/83 ( + 11) NSC 7/83 ( + 8) 1/81 1/81 (-2) (-2) (-2) (-3) ( + 6) ( + 6) 7/81 ( + 12) 8/80 ( + 1) 3/81 ( + 8) NSC 4/81 ( + 9) 1/76 ( + 10) 10/78 ( + 43) 8/78 4/77 4/77 2/76 4/76 (+ (+ (+ (+ (+ 41) 25) 25) 11) 13) 9/73 3/72 1/72 NSC 2/72 ( + 34) ( + 16) ( + 14) ( + 15) 12/61 11/65 NSC 11/61 11/61 ( + 10) ( + 57) ( + 9) ( + 9) (-5) (-6) (-4) NOTE: Specific peak and trough dates mark the cyclical turning points in individual series; reference peak and trough dates mark the cyclical turning points in overall business activity. For the maior composite indexes and their components, this table lists the specific peaks and troughs corresponding to the last seven business cycles. The leads ( —) or lags ( + ) of the specific dates in relation to the reference dates are shown in parentheses (in months). These specific dates should not be considered absolute; individual analysts may prefer alternative turning points for some series. See MEASURING BUSINESS CYCLES by Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell (National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946) for detailed information on the selection of specific peaks and troughs. NA, not available. This indicates that data necessary to determine a turning point are not available. NSC, no specific cycle. This indicates that no specific turning point corresponding to the indicated reference date is discernible. 1 This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. 105 G. Experimental Data and Analyses 1111111111111111111111111111111 Foreign currency per U.S. dollar Year and month Foreign currency per U.S. dollar— Japan West Germany France (Yen) (D. mark) (Franc) United Kingdom (Pound) I I Japan (yen) 1987 Jan. . . . Feb.... Mar Apr May June.. . July... Aug. . . . Sept. . . Oct Nov. . . . Dec 154.83 153.41 151.43 143.00 140.48 144.55 150.29 147.33 143.29 143.32 135.40 128.24 1.8596 1.8239 1.8355 1.8125 1.7881 1.8189 1.8482 1.8553 1.8134 1.8006 1.6821 1.6335 6.2007 6.0750 6.1091 6.0332 5.9748 6.0739 6.1530 6.1934 6.0555 6.0160 5.7099 5.5375 0.6643 0.6545 0.6280 0.6135 0.6000 0.6139 0.6215 0.6252 0.6081 0.6017 0.5633 0.5468 127.69 129.17 127.11 2 124.91 1.6537 rl.6965 1.6770 2 1.6700 5.5808 5.7323 5.6893 2 5.6655 0.5553 0.5688 0.5456 2 0.5322 1988 Jan. .. . Feb Mar Apr May June. . . July... Aug Sept... Oct.... Nov. . . . Dec Foreign currency per U.S. dollar Year and month Italy Canada Exchange value of the U.S. dollar 1 (Lira) (Dollar) (March 1973=100) Kingdom (pound) 1987 Jan. . . . Feb Mar Apr.... May.... June... July. .. Aug. . . . Sept... Oct.... Nov.... Dec 1988 Jan. . . . Feb Mar Apr.... May June... July... Aug. .. . Sept... Oct.... Nov.... Dec 1317.17 1297.74 1305.90 1292.96 1290.80 1316.50 1337.96 1344.18 1310.86 1302.58 1238.89 1203.74 1.3605 1.3340 1.3194 1.3183 1.3411 1.3387 1.3262 1.3256 1.3154 1.3097 1.3167 1.3075 101.13 99.46 98.99 97.09 96.05 97.78 99.36 99.43 97.23 96.65 91.49 88.70 1216.88 1249.62 1240.67 2 1239.69 1.2855 1.2682 1.2492 2 1.2369 89.29 r91.09 89.73 2 88.93 Exchange value of the U.S. dollar (index: March 1973 = 100) 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1 T h i s i n d e x i s t h e w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e exchange v a l u e o f t h e U. S. d o l l a r against the currencies of the other 6-10 countries plus S w i t z e r l a n d . Weights are t h e 1972-76 g l o b a l t r a d e o f each o f the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see t h e August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN ( p . 7 0 0 ) . 2 Average f o r A p r i l 1 t h r o u g h 2 2 . S o u r c e : Board o f Governors o f t h e Federal Reserve System. 106 - iOO -> 80 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes Basic data Series title (and unit of measure) LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average weekly nours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment 1 insurance, State programs1 (thous.). . 8. Mfrs. new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (bil. dol.). 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) . . . 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967=100). . 36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dol., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed2 (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) 910. Composite index of leading indicators3 (index: 1967=100) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (thous.) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. d o l . ) . . . . 47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (mil. dol.) 920. Composite index of roughly coincident indicators3 (index: 1967=100) LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment1 (weeks) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturingactual data as a percent of trend (percent) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars (mil. dol.) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (percent). . 930. Composite index of lagging indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) Jan. 1988 Dec. 1987 Net contribution to index Dec. to Jan. 1988 Mar. 1988 Feb. Jan. to Feb. 1988 Feb. to Mar. 1988 - 0 . 16 - 0 . 10 41.0 r41 .2 r41 .0 p40.9 0.16 312 351 321 304 -0.35 0.27 0.20 86.60 r84.85 r 8 6 . 19 . 12 -0. 1 1 0.08 -0.01 68 66 -0.09 0 . 16 r41.76 r43.45 r42.76 108.5 100.2 113.4 76 r41 .68 P39.29 NA r0.74 0.3 3 r0.07 0 . 10 240.96 250.48 2 5 8.13 r2 ,42 3 . 6 r 2 , 4 3 5 .6 r 2 , 4 4 9 .2 r 12 . 1 r 1 .6 7 1 r40. r 190.6 r!89.2 P86 69 P 0.09 -0.04 -0.08 116.9 -0.26 0.40 0 . 12 0.02 - 0 . 06 NA -0.11 0.02 0.26 0.20 0.24 .7 0 . 17 0.19 0.11 p 10 . 8 NA -0.60 0.52 r 191. 7 p19 3 . 3 -0.73 1 .32 0.83 0 . 17 0.41 0.27 -0.36 0.29 0.15 C. 10 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.0 8 265.74 p2 , 4 5 5 r 103,827 rlO4,344 p 104 , 6 0 6 2 ,748.4 r2 , 7 2 8 . 7 r2,744.6 P r134.4 134.4 r437,414 p438,97 0 436 , 886 r 173.4 r 173 . 0 13 41.57 1 0 3 , 6 12 rl33.9 -0. 2 ,75 1.0 pl34.6 NA r 174.0 pl74.5 13.7 -0. 18 NA NA -0.23 0.58 0.29 -0. 10 0 . 00 0.53 0 . 13 0.00 14.2 14.4 14.4 1.53 r 1 .54 pi.54 98. 0 r98.0 r98. 1 p99. 1 0.00 0 . 04 0.54 8.75 8.5 1 8.5 0 0.00 - 0 . 17 -0.01 -0.50 0.39 -0.66 NA 0.58 0 . 19 p 144 .9 0.07 0.49 8.75 NA NA 101. r368,06 1 r 361 , 0 8 4 r366 ,458 r l 5 .84 r 15 . 9 9 p 16.04 rl43.5 rl43.6 r!44.3 p360,234 NA 0.42 NOTE: The net c o n t r i b u t i o n o f an i n d i v i d u a l component i s t h a t component's share i n the composite movement of the group. I t is computed by d i v i d i n g the s t a n d a r d i z e d and weighted change f o r the component by the sum o f the weights f o r the a v a i l a b l e components and d i v i d i n g t h a t r e s u l t by the index s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n f a c t o r . See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) f o r the weights and s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n f a c t o r s . NA, not a v a i l a b l e , p, p r e l i m i nary, r, r e v i s e d , e, e s t i m a t e d . 1 This s e r i e s i s i n v e r t e d i n computing the composite i n d e x ; i . e . , a decrease i n t h i s s e r i e s i s considered an upward movement. This s e r i e s i s a weighted 4-term moving average ( w i t h weights 1 , 2 , 2 , 1 ) placed on the t e r m i n a l month o f the span. 3 F i g u r e s i n the net c o n t r i b u t i o n columns are percent changes i n the i n d e x . The percent change i s equal (except f o r rounding d i f f e r e n c e s ) to the sum of the i n d i v i d u a l components' c o n t r i b u t i o n s plus the t r e n d adjustment f a c t o r . The t r e n d adjustment f a c t o r f o r the l e a d i n g index i s 0.139; f o r the c o i n c i d e n t i n d e x , - 0 . 1 7 5 ; f o r the l a g g i n g i n d e x , 0.018. 2 107 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns 73. Industrial production, durable manufactures Deviations from reference peaks Actual data for current cycle Percent - i + 25 • + 20 140 • 135 + 15 • 130 + 10 • 125 +5 REF. TROUGH 110 • 105 -10 ACTUAL DATA AND YEAR 73. Industrial production, durable manufactures SERIES 73 1977=100 53 54 55 56 15.1 15.6 16.1 17.4 130.9 131.4 132.0 133.5 57 58 59 60 17 . 7 17.6 20.3 20.2 133.8 133.7 136.8 136.7 8/87 9/87 10/87 11/87 61 62 63 64 20.8 21.1 21.3 21 . 6 137.3 137.7 137.9 138.3 12/87 1/88 2/88 3/88 Deviations from specific troughs Actual data for current cycle 4/87 5/87 6/87 7/87 DEVIMONTHS FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH FROM AND SPEC. ACTUAL 11/82 TROUGH DATA YEAR SERIES 73 1977=100 • 120 • 115 FROM 7/81 53 54 55 56 36.1 36.6 37.2 38.8 130.9 131.4 132.0 133.5 4/87 5/87 6/87 7/87 57 58 59 60 39.1 39.0 42.2 42.1 133.8 8/87 133.7 9/87 136.8 10/87 136.7 11/87 61 62 63 64 42 .7 43. 1 43.3 43.8 137.3 137.7 137.9 138.3 12/87 1/88 2/88 3/88 -15 l 45 • ^ 40 • 13S 35 • 13C 30 • 12S 25 • t2C 2-0 • US 1 5 • 11C t 0 • tOf • 95 - 1 -20 5 .,« DEVIMONTHS FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH REF. FROM ACTUAL AND YEAR TROUGH 7/81 DATA 74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures SERIES 74 1977=100 + 30 + 25 •1*0 + 20 • 135 74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures 53 54 55 56 20.4 21.4 22.5 23.9 134.6 135.7 136.9 138.5 4/87 5/87 6/87 7/87 57 58 59 60 24.2 24.0 23.5 24.9 138.8 138.6 138.1 139.6 8/87 9/87 10/87 11/87 61 62 63 64 26.4 26.9 26.8 26.9 141.3 141.9 141.8 141.9 12/87 1/88 2/88 3/88 40 • 14* 35 • 130 • 125 + 10 +5 • 14C 30 • 13* MONTHS DEVI• 120 FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 7/82 DATA YEAR • 115 SERIES 74 1977=100 • 110 -5 • 105 57 58 59 60 28.6 29.6 30.8 32.3 134.6 135.7 136.9 138.5 61 62 63 64 32.6 32.4 31.9 33.3 138.8 138.6 138.1 139.6 8/87 9/87 10/87 11/87 65 66 67 68 35.0 35.5 35.4 35.5 141 .3 141 .9 141.8 141.9 12/87 1/88 2/88 3/88 25 20 4/87 5/87 6/87 7/87 15 • 13C • 12E • 12X 10 -10 -15 mi 111 ill i n ill ti 111 li 11111 in 111 in I I 11111111 I I i 0 + 6 +12+18 + 24+30+36 + 42+48+54+60 • 100 • U( liiiiiliniiliiinliiiiiliiiiiliiiiiliiiiil -6 Months from reference troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on page 107 of the January 1988 issue. 108 0 + 6 +12+18+24+30 + 36+42+48 + 54+60 + 66 Months from specific troughs G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued iiiii|riiii|iiiii|iiiii|iiiii|iiiii|iiiii|friii|iiiif|ftiii|iiiii|ii Deviat ons from reference peaks 50. GNP in 1982 dollars | C,C,C j Percent D 1982 +20 y f Hfir TRIL . • 3.9 • 3.8 \ 1970 Actual data for current cycle +15 T\ QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. REF. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH H I / 8 1 YEAR DATA SERIES TTTTT lllll|lllll|IIUI|UIII|lllll|illll|lllll|lllll|lllll|IIMI|niM Devia ions Actual data from specific troughs for current cycle 50. GNP in 1982 dollars [c,c,c | 50 B I L . DOL 3704.7 11/86 3718.0 [11/86 3731.5 IV/86 14 15 16 13.5 13.9 14.3 17 18 19 20 15.5 16.3 17.5 18.9 3772.2 3795.3 3835 .9 3880.8 1/87 11/87 [11/87 IV/87 21 19.5 3902.6 1/88 QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 1 1 1 / 8 2 DATA YEAR Percent D 25 - TRIL. • 3.9 I 1/75 df 20 • 3.8 • 3.7 / iA\ JOT ff^ /•# J — +10 MEDIAN • 3.6 • 3.5 / — Mr / As 1975 +5 ff/r si/ • 3.4 15 16 SERIES 50 ANN. RATE BIL. DOL. 17 . 4 3704.7 11/86 17 . 9 37 1 8 . 0 H I / 8 6 17 18 19 20 18.3 19.6 20.3 21.6 3731.5 3772.2 3795.3 3835.9 IV/86 1/87 11/87 111/87 21 22 23.0 23. 7 3880.8 3902.6 IV/87 1/88 • 3.7 I// ^MEDIAN w • IIX 82 ( 15 • 3.6 &V \ / • 3.5 /Jff •A/ — M W 10 • 3.4 H/70 • 3.3 0 yf 7 1 5 j/j • 3.2 S3 • 31 if • 3.3 • 3.2 n 86. Nonresidential fixed investment, total, 1982 dollars iyb7 dollars II/75 BIL. • 490 1970 tf'***"^ V / \i \/ +20 / +15 / A A i ftltJ\/J& \\ 11 14 • 450 +10 // > Y^v • 430 +5 • 410 *•> r\ // V A L / J F |T J ^ f > / u / I / / / / J • 390 / 1975 / / / / • 370 -10 • 350 t r 1 i 1 l i i 1 inn i m i ) i m i ) i i i i i ) i i i i | | i m i | | i m | i m i | i i i n h i i i i ) i n n }n 1/83 5.8 18 19 20 21 8. 7 15.2 15.6 426.0 437.9 463.8 465 .6 1/87 11/87 HI/87 IV/87 21.3 488.3 1/88 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 28.2 35.8 36.3 42.9 H/86 R 437.9 463.8 465.6 488.3 0 +6 +12+18+24+30+36+42+48+54+60 Months from reference troughs — A 35 / • 450 30 / /K l\ •*V• / ** 1 f / / / \ / / fkj i V HtEDA IN j 25 — i f /•••* r / / hi \ / If \\ yJ If - IS ImT 20 15 / 111/7 1 — • 430 • 410 • 390 10 • 370 \J* 5 if J • 350 IT 11 / 8 7 I # III/87'| IV/87 1/88 mil l l l l l ] l f l l l | l l l l l l f l l l l ) l l l l l l l l l l l ) l l l l l | l | l l f ' l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l -6 40 • 470 / rJ\\ JliJ QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATI ONS CURRENT QRTR . SPEC. AND ACTUAL FROM YEAR TROUGH DATA 1/83 SERIES 86 RATE \ i\NN. I5 I L . DOL 29. 1 441.0 28. 1 4 3 7 . 7 H I / 8 6 Ql 443.2 29.7 IV/86 ^ 426.0 24.7 1/87 A / // \l / vA/ / ^ SERIES 86 ANN. RATE BIL. DOL. 11/86 441.0 9.5 437.7 HI/86 8 .7 IV/86 443.2 10.1 17 -5 -15 1 15 16 / V DEVIQRTRS. FROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. AND ACTUAL REF. FROM YEAR DATA TROUGH 1 1 1 / 8 1 • 470 BIL. • 490 n 1 V\ 45 Percent c,Lg,c I Percent CL 8 7| 86. Nonresidential fixed investment, total, •* . r\ „ n 0 + 6 +12 + 18+24+30+36 + 42+48+54+60+66 Months from specific troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on page 107 of the January 109 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE Current issue (page numbers) Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources oi Series." following this index) Agricultural products, exports Anticipations and intentions Consumer sentiment, index Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl New orders, manufacturing. Dl Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars. Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars... Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl Prices, manufacturing, Dl Prices, retail trade. Dl Prices, wholesale trade, Dl Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl Sales, manufacturing and trade. Dl Automobiles Imports of automobiles and parts Personal consumption expenditures Series number 6 Charts Tables ,, . . ' !°;ical data (issue date) H s o Construction Building permits, new private housing 10 87 58 974 975 971 100 61 970 976 978 977 972 973 22 38 38 38 24 24 38 38 38 38 38 38 65 76 76 76 67 67 76 76 76 76 76 76 616 55 56 22 92 65 20 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 10 87 9 87 56 39 B Canada See International comparisons. Capacity utilization Manufacturing Materials Capital appropriations, manufacturing Backlog Newly approved Newly approved. Dl Capital equipment, producer price index Capital investment See Investment, capital. Capital investment commitments, Cl Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars Cash flow, corporate, current dollars Civilian labor force See also Employment. Employment Employment as percent of population Labor force Unemployed Coincident indicators, four Composite indexComposite index, rate of change... Diffusion index Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded Commercial and industrial loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Compensation See also Income. Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract 93 94 13.25 24 67 67 14 12 13 33 23 23 72 65 65 101 72 112 295 15.35 3e 32 46 Corporate bond yields Corporate profits—See Profits Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes. Credit Borrowing, total private Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars 73 73 71 82 64 64 32 32 32 97 11 965 333 24 24 37 48 66 66 75 86 12-86 12,86 10 86 388 22 22 22 51 29 29 60 70 70 1 86 9 87 9 87 5 26 26 11 87 11 87 Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Credit outstanding, percent change Mortgage debt, net change Crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Crude materials, producer price index 914 35 34 442 90 441 37 51 17 51 89 62 89 18.51 62,89 2 88 2.88 2 88 2 88 9 9 9 9 920 951 940 9 101 72 112 10 39 36 11 23 15,35 35 32 60 74 60 66 1,87 1 87 12 87 11 87 6 87 73 73 71 5 87 5 87 5 87 5 5 5 21 32 32 32 Gross obligations incurred Gross unpaid obligations Personnel, civilian Personnel, military 87 82 10 87 1 88 46 46 64 30.47 70.83 9.87 46 346 49 88 10 87 46 340 49 87 8 87 5 341 348 349 49 50 50 87 88 88 4 88 7 87 7 87 5 53 53 Prime contract awards New orders, manufacturers' Shipments, manufacturers' Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products industries, employment Defense purchases, goods and services Defense purchases, percent of GNP 29 13,25 67 6/87 24 9 69 23 24 66 67 6/87 8/87 21 17 86 248 87 89 249 28 334 8 75 25 47 25 25 47 25 48 12,21 22 67 83 67 67 83 67 86 64 65 9/87 12/87 9/87 9/87 12/87 3/87 3/88 4/88 12/87 40 40 40 40 40 24 51 15 12 66 113 95 39 35 32 15,35 33 73 72 73 72 5/87 5/87 9/87 2/88 33 33 33 34 320 322 58 49 49 22 84.95 84 65 3/88 3/88 6/87 49 49 20 525 53 90 7/87 55 20 12,23 66 11/87 21 10 116 23 34 66 73 11/87 2/87 21 35 10/87 110 101 72 112 15,35 35 32 Capital appropriations, manufacturing Coincident indicators Employees, manufacturing and trade Employees on private nonagncultural payrolls Inventories, manufacturing and trade Lagging indicators Leading indicators Plant and equipment expenditures Six laggers, index 930 Six laggers, rate of change 930c 10 39 60 Profits, manufacturing Profits, manufacturing and trade Raw industrials, spot market prices 10,87 10/87 32 28 48 69 85 4/88 3/88 51 50 517 543 580 578 577 525 53 53 54 55 55 53 90 90 91 91 91 90 7/87 10/87 10/87 7/87 7/87 7/87 55 55 56 56 56 55 559 548 588 561 570 564 565 54 53 54 54 55 55 55 91 90 91 91 91 91 91 6/87 5/87 6/87 6/87 8/87 10/87 10/87 17 15 17 15 5 43 43 39 32 12,21 72 64 2/88 1/88 34 17 965 951 974 963 966 37 36 38 36 37 10/86 12/87 8/87 10/87 12/87 22 5 37 5 12 962 975 952 950 964 36 38 36 36 37 75 74 76 74 75 78 74 76 74 74 2/88 8/87 12/87 6/87 9/87 37 5 5 15 971 970 960 972 967 38' 38 37 38 37 8/87 11/87 8/87 8/87 1/88 37 23 37 37 25 973 976 978 977 968 961 38 38 38 38 37 36 8/87 8/87 8/87 8/87 2/87 8/87 37 37 37 37 25 5 33 13,32 33 Raw industrials, spot market prices, components .... Sales, manufacturing and trade Selling prices, manufacturing leading indicators Capital investment c o m m i t m e n t s . . . Eleven leaders, index 914 910 Eleven leaders, rate of change Inventory investment and purchasing Money and financial flows 910c 915 917 916 'io' 39 jj 11 11 60 60 60 60 60 1/86 4/87 4/87 33 33 33 34 31 31 98 331 35 32 15,35 Industrial production, components New orders, manufacturing 60 5/87 5/87 9/87 2/88 5/87 9/86 73 72 73 72 72 71 66 113 95 39 111 33 New orders, durable goods industries, components.. 1 87 32 32 32 Diffusion indexes New orders, durable goods industries 60 5/87 5/87 5/87 D e f l a t o r s - S e e Price indexes. Initial claims. State unemployment insurance 10 39 11 73 73 71 Deficit- -See Government. Industrial production 920 (*) Defense products Deliveries, vendor performance 49 45 Series description Defense Department Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans 345 280 Historical data (issue date) Defense and space equipment, industrial production .... Inventories, manufacturers' 920c (page numbers) Series number Charts Tables D e b t - S e e Credit. Net outlays 940 14 14 20 20 920c 110 Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income 82 84 Four comciders, rate of change See notes at end of index. Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Consumer p r i c e s - See also International comparisons. current dollars 29 76 Ratio to lagging indicator index Lagging indicators Profitability Housing starts Consumer finished goods, producer price index Consumer goods and materials, new orders Consumer goods, industrial production Food Consumer sentiment, index Consumption expenditures—See Personal consumption expenditures. Contract awards, Defense Department Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing. and construction Composite indexes Coincident indicators Four comciders. index Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial buildings Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales .. Gross private fixed investment Nonresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential. percent of GNP Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP All items Balance of payments See International transactions. Bank loans See Business Loans. Bank rates See Interest rates. Bank reserves Free reserves Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve.. Bonds See Interest rates. Borrowing See Credit Budget See Government Building See Construction. Building permits, new private housing Business equipment, industrial production Business expenditures See Investment, capital. Business failures, current liabilities Business formation, index Business incorporations Business inventories See Inventories Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars... Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Business saving Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) , Sene,s description (") Selling prices, retail trade Selling prices, wholesale trade Stock prices, 500 common stocks Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Disposable personal income —See income. 75 77 76 76 75 76 75 79 76 76 76 76 75 74 77 8 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources ot Series," following this index) Earnings -See Compensation. Employment and unemployment Civilian labor force Defense Department personnel, civilian Defense Department personnel, military Employee hours in nonagncultural establishments Rate of change Total Employees in goods-producing industries Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Employees on nonagncultural payrolls... Employees on private nonagncultural payrolls, Dl ... Employment, civilian Employment, defense products industries Employment, ratio to population Help wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl Overtime hours, manufacturing Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age... Participation rate, females 20 years and over Participation rate, males 20 years and over Part-time workers for economic reasons Persons engaged in nonagncultural activities Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age Unemployed, females 20 years and over..: Unemployed, full-time workers... Unemployed, males 20 years and over Unemployment, average duration Unemployment, civilian Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over Unemployment rate, insured Unemployment rate, total Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Workweek, manufacturing, Dl Equipment See Investment, capital. Exports See International transactions. Federal funds rate Federal Government -See Government. Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from.. Final sales in constant dollars Financial flows, Cl Fixed investment-See Investment, capital. Fixed weighted price index, gross domestic business product Food See Consumer prices. Foreign trade-See International transactions. France - See International comparisons. Free reserves Goods output in constant dollars Government budget Federal expenditures Federal receipts Federal surplus or deficit State and local expenditures State and local receipts State and local surplus or deficit Surplus or deficit, total Government purchases of goods and services Federal, constant dollars Federal, current dollars Federal, percent of GNP National defense National defense, percent of GNP State and local, constant dollars State and local, current dollars State and local, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted price index Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit Gross national product GNP, constant dollars , GNP, constant dollars, differences GNP, constant dollars, percent changes GNP, current dollars GNP, current dollars, differences GNP. current dollars, percent changes GNP, ratio to money supply Ml Goods output in constant dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP, constant dollars Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital. Help wanted advertising in newspapers Help wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment.. Hours, manufacturing Average weekly hours Average weekly hours, components Average weekly hours, Dl Average weekly overtime Series number Current issue (page numbers) Charts 441 578 577 51 55 55 48c 48 40 974 41 963 442 570 90 46 60 5 962 21 453 452 451 448 42 446 445 447 444 91 37 44 45 43 1 39 17 17 38 14,17 36 51 55 17 16 16 12,16 36 16 51 51 51 51 17 51 51 51 51 15,18 18,51 18 18 18 12,16 961 36 Tables 89 91 91 61 62 76 62 74 89 91 62 61 61 61 74 61 89 89 89 89 62 89 89 89 89 62 62,89 62 62 62 61 77 74 Historical data (issue date) 2/88 7/87 7/87 9/87 9/87 8/87 8/87 8/87 10/87 2/88 8/87 2/88 12/87 2/88 2/88 2/88 8/87 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 3/87 2/88 8/87 8/87 Series description (*) 9 56 56 5 5 37 5 5 9 5 9 9 9 8 8 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 5 "5 3/87 94 213 917 33 40 11 72 80 60 2/88 10/87 1/88 35 38 5 9/87 311 9/87 502 501 500 512 511 510 298 52 52 52 52 52 52 46 90 90 90 90 90 90 83 9/87 9/87 9/87 9/87 9/87 9/87 1/88 53 53 53 53 53 53 48 263 262 265 564 565 267 266 268 261 260 43 43 47 55 55 43 43 47 43 43 81 81 83 91 91 81 81 83 81 81 1/88 1/88 1/88 10/87 10/87 1/88 1/88 1/88 1/88 1/88 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 311 68 48 30 84 70 9/87 9/87 49 28 50 50b 50c 200 200b 200c 107 49 310 217 19,40 31 20 48 40 63,80 80 80 80 80 80 71 63 84 80 9/87 9/87 9/87 10/87 10/87 10/87 8/87 9/87 9/87 10/87 38 38 38 38 38 38 30 14 38 38 46 60 16 16 61 61 12/87 2/88 9 9 1 12,16 8/87 5 961 21 36' 16 61 77 74 61 8/87 8/87 "5 "39' 40 5 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Housing Housing starts Housing units authorized by local building permits Residential GPDI, constant dollars Residential GPDI, percent of GNP Series number 28 29 89 249 Current issue numbers) Charts Tables (page 25 13,25 25 47 67 67 67 83 Historical data (issue date) 3/87 6/87 9/87 12/87 Series description (*) 24 24 40 40 I Implicit price deflator, GNP Imports—See International transactions. Income Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income Corporate profits with IVA and CCAd| Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Disposable personal income, constant dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dollars Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income National income Personal income, constant dollars Personal income, current dollars Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars Rate of change Total Personal income, ratio to money supply M2 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Incorporations, new businesses Industrial commodities, producer price index Industrial production—See also International comparisons. Business equipment Consumer goods Defense and space equipment Durable manufactures Nondurable manufactures Total Total, components Total, Dl Total, rate of change Industrials, raw, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Installment credit—See Credit. Insured unemployment Average weekly initial claims Average weekly initial claims, Dl Average weekly insured unemployment rate Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income Interest rates Bank rates on short-term business loans Corporate bond yields Federal funds rate Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields Prime rate charged by banks Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields Intermediate materials, producer price index International comparisons Consumer prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany Industrial production Canada France Italy Japan OECD, European countries United Kingdom United States West Germany 9/87 310 345 280 49 45 87 82 10/87 1/88 46 64 30,47 70,83 9/87 46 346 95 286 49 15,35 45 88 73 82 10/87 9/87 1/88 46 33 26 287 225 224 47 40 40 83 80 80 1/88 10/87 10/87 26 11 11 46 227 40 80 10/87 11 340 49 87 8/87 5 341 652 651 288 289 220 52 223 49 57 57 45 47 45 19 40 87 93 93 82 83 82 63 63 4/88 7/87 7/87 1/88 1/88 10/87 9/87 9/87 5 57 47 47 46 11 11 51c 51 108 282 39 14,19 31 45 63' 71 82 9/87 9/87 8/87 1/88 'll 30 47 283 284 47 45 83 82 1/88 1/88 47 47 285 348 349 47 50 50 83 88 88 1/88 7/87 7/87 47 53 53 53 13 335 19 23 48 63 65 85 4/88 1/88 3/88 11 21 51 12/87 12/87 12/87 12/87 12/87 12/87 12 12 13 12 12 12 12/87 12/87 '12 • 1/88 1/88 25 69 2/88 2/88 3/87 1/88 1/88 8 8 8 47 47 76 24 67 75 22 65 557 54 91 73 20 63 74 20 63 47 14,20,58 63,94 78 37' 966 75 47c 39 57 79 75 967 23 37' 28 5 962 45 288 289 12,16 36 18 47 61 74 62 82 83 67 116 119 118 117 109 114 115 332 35 34 34 34 34 35 34 34 48 73 73 72 73 73 73 72 73 86 1/88 2/87 3/87 3/87 3/87 2/88 2/87 2/87 3/88 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 50 733 736 737 738 732 320 735 59 59 59 59 59 49 59 96 95 96 95 95 84,95 95 4/88 4/88 4/88 4/88 4/88 3/88 4/88 60 61 61 61 60 49 61 94 58 94 58 94 58 94 58 94 58 94 58 14,20,58 63,94 94 58 11/87 6/87 6/87 6/87 6/87 6/87 12/87 6/87 59 59 59 59 58 58 12 59 723 726 727 728 721 722 47 725 45 25 See notes at end of index. 111 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) International comparisons—Continued Stock prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany International transactions Balance on goods and services Balance on merchandise trade Exports, excluding military aid Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of goods and services, constant dollars Exports of goods and services, current dollars Exports of goods and services, excluding military Exports of nonelectrical machinery Imports, general Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military .... Imports of automobiles and parts Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services, constant dollars Imports of goods and services, current dollars Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Income on foreign investment in the United States.... Income on U.S. investment abroad Net exports of goods and services, constant dollars Net exports of goods and services, current dollars Net exports of goods and services, percent of GIMP.... Inventories Business inventories, change, constant dollars Business inventories, change, current dollars Business inventories, change, percent of GNP Defense products, manufacturers' Finished goods, manufacturers' Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade ... Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl Manufacturing and trade Manufacturing and trade, change Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade, 01 Manufacturing and trade, on hand and on order, change Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers', change Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl Capital investment commitments, Cl Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private domestic investment Business inventories, change—See Inventories. Fixed investment, constant dollars Fixed investment, current dollars Nonresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential, percent of GNP Nonresidential producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars New orders, nondefense capital goods, constant dollars New orders, nondefense capital goods, current dollars Plant and equipment Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Expenditures by business, constant dollars Expenditures by business, current dollars Expenditures by business, Dl Investment, foreign Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Italy- See International comparisons. Current issue ) Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 59 59 59 59 59 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 7/87 7/87 7/87 7/87 7/87 7/87 7/87 63 63 63 63 63 25 63 93 93 92 93 92 82 82 93 92 92 93 92 93 82 82 92 93 93 7/87 7/87 10/87 7/87 10/87 12/87 12/87 7/87 10/87 10/87 7/87 10/8/ 7/87 12/87 12/87 10/87 7/87 7/87 57 57 56 253 614 652 651 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 255 44 82 12/87 44 250 251 44 47 82 83 12/87 12/87 44 44 30 245 247 26,42 559 65 77 915 71 31 70 975 54 27 15,27 11 27 26 27 38 68,81 81 83 91 68 68 60 68 68 68 76 9/87 12/87 12/87 6/87 5/87 11/87 1/88 11/87 6/87 11/87 8/87 40 40 40 17 17 17 36 13,26 68 4/88 17 78 27 68 5/87 17 38 26 68 5/87 17 97 11 965 914 9 24 24 37 66 66 23' 60 66 12/86 12/86 10/86 1/86 6/87 22 22 22 5 21 Series number 743 746 747 748 742 19 745 667 622 602 618 604 256 252 668 606 612 620 616 669 257 (page Charts 59 59 42 47 numbefS 75 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 5 17 17 17 37 8/87 243 242 86 248 42 42 25 47 81 81 67 83 11/87 11/87 9/87 12/87 40 40 40 40 88 87 89 249 241 240 25 25 25 47 42 42 67 67 67 83 81 81 9/87 9/87 9/87 12/87 11/87 11/87 40 40 40 40 40 40 27 23 66 11/87 15 24 23 66 11/87 15 20 10 100 61 970 12,23 23 24 24 38 66 66 67 67 21 21 76 11/87 11/87 11/87 11/87 11/87 23 23 652 651 57 93 93 7/87 7/87 57 57 57 Japan—See International comparisons. Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product Labor cost per unit of output, business sector Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Labor force—See Employment. Lagging indicators, six Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index See notes at end of index. 112 68 63 30 30 70 70 9/87 10/87 28 28 62 62 26 30 15 29 70 10/87 10/87 10/87 28 28 28 930 930c 952 10 39 36 60 70 70 74 10/87 10/87 12/87 5 "5 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Leading indicators, eleven Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Liabilities of business failures Liquid assets, change in total Loans-See Credit. (page n u m b e f S Series number Charts ) Tables 910 910c 950 14 104 10 39 36 33 31 74 72 71 38 84 8 26 20 12,21 917 11 104 105 85 106 102 107 108 33 118 117 31 31 31 data (issue date) 4/87 4/87 6/87 6/87 4/87 description (*) 5 5 34 29 M Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories, change Materials, capacity utilization rate Materials, new orders for consumer goods and Materials prices—See Price indexes. Merchandise trade—See International transactions. Military—See Defense. Money and financial flows, Cl Money supply Liquid assets, change in total Money supply M l , constant dollars Money supply M l , percent changes Money supply M2, constant dollars Money supply M2, percent changes Ratio, GNP to money supply M l Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 Mortgage debt, net change Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields 5/87 13,31 31 31 31 32 34 34 68 64 64 5/87 11/87 4/88 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 73 73 4/87 4/87 4/87 4/87 4/87 8/87 8/87 9/86 3/87 3/87 29 29 29 30 29 30 30 31 35 35 66 66 64 11/87 11/87 4/88 15 15 15 17 14 15 1/88 N National defense—See Defense. National Government—See Government. National income—See Income. New orders, manufacturers' Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dollars Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars.. Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Defense products Durable goods industries, constant dollars Durable goods industries, current dollars Components Diffusion index New orders, manufacturing, Dl Nonresidential fixed investment Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Structures, constant dollars Total, constant dollars Total, percent of GNP Obligations incurred, Defense Department Obligations unpaid, Defense Department OECD, European countries, industrial production. Orders—See New orders and Unfilled orders. Outlays, Defense Department Output—See also Gross national product and Industrial production. Goods output, constant dollars Labor cost per unit of Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Per hour, business sector Per hour, nonfarm business sector Ratio to capacity, manufacturing Ratio to capacity, materials Overtime hours, manufacturing Participation rates, civilian labor force Both sexes 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over Males 20 years and over Personal consumption expenditures Automobiles Durable goods, constant dollars Durable goods, current dollars Nondurable goods, constant dollars Nondurable goods, current dollars Services, constant dollars Services, current dollars Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars Total, percent of GNP Personal income—See Income. Personal saving Personal saving rate Petroleum and petroleum products, imports. 27 24 8 23 23 12,21 20 12,23 10 548 7 6 23 964 971 37 38 88 87 86 248 25 25 25 517 543 721 11/87 66 90 11/87 5/87 4/88 4/88 21 15 15 15 9/87 8/87 15 37 47 67 67 67 83 9/87 9/87 9/87 12/87 40 40 40 40 53 53 58 90 90 94 7/87 10/87 6/87 55 53 21 21 64 64 77 75 76 580 55 58 10/87 9/87 62 62 370 358 82 84 21 30 15 50 50 20 20 16 70 70 88 88 64 64 61 10/87 10/87 10/87 10/87 11/87 11/87 8/87 28 28 453 452 451 51 51 51 89 89 2/88 2/88 2/88 9 9 9 55 233 232 238 236 239 237 231 230 235 22 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 47 65 80 80 81 81 81 81 80 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 80 83 9/87 11/87 11/87 11/87 11/87 11/87 11/87 11/87 11/87 11/87 292 293 614 46 46 56 82 83 92 1/88 1/88 10/87 48 48 56 89 52 52 14 14 5 39 39 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital. Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Expenditures by business, constant dollars Expenditures by business, current dollars Expenditures by business, Dl Populaiion, civilian employment as percent of Price indexes Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food Deflators Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product Implicit price deflator, GNP Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Producer prices All commodities Capital equipment Crude materials Finished consumer goods Industrial commodities Intermediate materials Sensitive crude and intermediate materials Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Stock prices—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business Prices, selling Manufacturing, Dl Retail trade, Dl Wholesale trade, Dl Prime contract awards, Defense Department Prime rate charged by banks Producer prices—See Price indexes. Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI Production—See Gross national product and Industrial production. Productivity Output per hour, business sector Output per hour, nonfarm business sector Profitability, Cl Profits Corporate profits after tax Constant dollars Current dollars With IVA and CCAdj. constant dollars With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars Corporate profits before tax With IVA and CCAdj With IVA and CCAdj. percent of national income Manufacturing and trade, Dl Manufacturing, Dl Per dollar of sales, manufacturing Profitability, Cl Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAd] Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Rental income of persons with CCAd| Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Reserves, free Residential fixed investment, constant dollars Series number Current issue numbers) Charts Tables (page Historical data (issue date) Series jescnption (*) Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP.. Residential structures—See Housing. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars 12,23 23 24 24 38 17 66 66 67 67 76 62 320 322 49 49 84,95 84 3/88 3/88 49 49 311 310 26 48 48 29 84 84 70 9/87 9/87 10/87 49 38 28 20 10 100 61 970 90 330 333 331 334 335 332 967 23 976 978 977 525 109 85 86 85 86 85 86 69 37 28 79 75 69 28 13,28 11/87 11/87 11/87 11/87 11/87 2/88 3/88 3/88 3/88 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue numbers) Charts Tables (page 50 51 50 51 51 50 51 1/88 25 25 69 69 4/88 51 25 13,28 37 29 69 75 70 7/87 2/87 10/87 25 25 28 38 38 38 53 35 76 76 76 90 73 8/87 8/87 8/87 7/87 2/88 37 37 37 55 35 Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields... 9/87 Series description (*) 12/87 59 54 22 22 65 65 23 23 Salaries—See Compensation. Sales Final sales, constant dollars Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade.. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Saving Business saving Government surplus or deficit Gross saving Personal saving Personal saving rate Selling prices—See Prices, selling Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Shipments of defense products Spot market prices, raw industrials Components ... Diffusion index Spot market index State and local government—See Government. Stock prices-—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Surplus—See Government. Historical data (issue date) 11/87 11/87 20 20 10/87 213 69 57 56 973 77 59 54 24 14.22 22 38 15,27 22 22 67 65 65 76 68 65 65 8/87 11/87 11/87 8/87 11/87 11/87 11/87 17 17 17 37 17 20 20 295 298 290 292 293 46 46 46 46 46 82 83 82 82 83 1/88 1/88 1/88 1/88 1/88 26 48 48 48 48 98 99 588 28 13,28 54 69 69 91 4/88 4/88 6/87 51 25 17 967 23 37' 28 79 75 69 1/88 1/88 25 25 19 968 13,28 37 69 75 7/87 2/87 25 25 114 115 34 34 72 73 2/87 2/87 35 35 91 60 5 962 15,18 16 12,16 36 62 61 61 74 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 9 9 8 8 446 445 447 444 37 44 45 43 561 96 25 51 51 51 51 18,51 18 18 18 54 21 21 89 89 89 89 62,89 62 62 62 91 64 64 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 2/88 3/87 2/88 6/87 4/87 4/87 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 15 15 15 107 108 32 31 31 12,21 71 71 64 8/87 8/87 1/88 30 30 17 1 12,16 5 36' 61 77 74 8/87 961 8/87 "5 U 370 358 916 50 50 11 88 88 60 10/87 10/87 1/88 52 52 5 18 16 80 79 28 28 29 29 69 69 69 69 9/87 9/87 9/87 9/87 26 26 26 26 286 287 972 960 15 916 22 45 47 38 37 29 11 29 82 83 76 75 70 60 69 1/88 1/88 8/87 8/87 1/88 1/88 9/87 26 26 37 37 27 5 26 81 282 29 45 70 82 9/87 1/88 26 47 1/88 Unemployment Duration of unemployment, average Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment.. Initial claims for unemployment insurance Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl Number unemployed Both sexes 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over Full-time workers Males 20 years and over Total unemployed Unemployment rates 15 weeks and over Insured unemployment Total Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products Durable goods industries Durable goods industries, change United Kingdom—See International comparisons. Velocity of money GNP to money supply M l , ratio Personal income to money supply M2, ratio Vendor performance, slower deliveries 967 23 284 37 28 45 79 75 69 82 1/88 1/88 1/88 25 25 47 285 93 89 47 33 25 83 72 67 1/88 2/88 9/87 47 35 40 W Wages and salaries—See Compensation. West Germany—See International comparisons. Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes. Workweek, manufacturing Average weekly hours Components .. Diffusion index NOTE: CCAdj. capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. * The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears. 113 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among the series. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data; " Q " indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are referred to by number: Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Following the source for each series is an indication of the pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each series. I-A. Composite Indexes 910. Composite index of eleven leading indicators (includes series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111) ( M ) . - S o u r c e 1 (10,39,60) 914. Composite index of capital investment commitments (includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference Board (24,66) 12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (23,65) 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (23,65) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association (33,72) 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).-Source 3 (17,62) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).— Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activi- Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).— Source 3 (16,61) Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69) 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this series may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.) (28,69,79) 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (12,16,61,77) 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (18,51,62,89) 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) Composite index of money and financial flows (includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) I-B. Cyclical Indicators (29,70) 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (M).—Source 2 (26,68) 917. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source 1 (11,60) 1 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (13,26,68) 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (29,70) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (12,23,66) 940. 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26,80) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 930. 34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (33,72) 916. 920. 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M).— Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (32,71) 24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2 (23,66) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64) 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3 3 (14,17,62) ties (M).-Source3 (17,62) 43. Unemployment rate (M).—Source 3 (18,62) 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (M).-Source 3 (18,62) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (18,62) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-The Conference Board (16,61) 47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).-Source 3 (17,39,61) 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (20,63) 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (M).-Source 1 (14,19,39,63) 52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1 (29,70) (19,63) 6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64,77) 27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (23,66) 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M) — Source 1 (19,63) 7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64) 28. New private housing units started (M).—Source 2 (25,67) 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (12,21,64) 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67) (12,16,61) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (23,66) 114 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (26,68) 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (12,21,64) 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source 2 (22,65) 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).-Source 1 (22,65) 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (22,65) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (M).-Sourcesl and 2 (14,22,65) 58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (22,65) 59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (22,65) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1, 3, and The Conference Board (16,61) 88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).— Source 1 (25,67) 61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business in current dollars(Q).-Source 1 (24,67) 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Q)-Source 1 (25,67) 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (15,30,70) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (17,62) 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source 3 (30,70) Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).— Source 3 (15,18,62) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 93. Free reserves (M).—Source 4 (33,72) I-C. Diffusion Indexes 950. Diffusion index of eleven leading indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components (M).—Source 1 (36,74) 952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about 600 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (35,75) 94. 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (EOM) .— Source 2 (27,68) Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (M).-Source4 (33,72) 95. 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).— Source 4 (35,73) Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (M).—Sources 1 and 4 (15,35,73) 96. 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source 4 (35,73) Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (E0M).-Source2 (21,64) 97. 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1 (30,70) Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board (24,66) 962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source 1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (36,74) 98. 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (M).—Source 2 (24,67) Percent change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (28,69) 963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).—Source 3 (36,74) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (13,28,69) 964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (37,75,77) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sourcesland2 (27,68) 100. 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories in current dollars (EOM)-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) New plant and equipment expenditures by business in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (24,67) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (15,35,73) 102. Change in money supply M2 (M)-Source 4 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (35,73) 75. 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. 81. 82. 84. 85. 86. 87. 965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board (37,75) 966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (37,75,78) Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and 967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw indus4 (31,71) trial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity 105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1 Research Bureau, Inc. (37,75,79) Index of industrial production, nondurable manuand 4 (31,71) factures (M).-Source 4 (20,63) 968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks, 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 40-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard & Index of industrial production, consumer goods and 4 (13,31,71) Poor's Corporation (37,75) (M).-Source4 (22,65) 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml 970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and Index of industrial production, business equipment (Q).—Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries (M).-Source4 (24,67) 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).— (Q).-Source 1 (38,76) Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (15,27,68) 971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, 4 (35,73) Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in on hand and on order (EOM).-Source 2 (27,68) reproduced without written permission from the credit markets (Q).-Source 4 (32,72) source.) (38,76) Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuaChange in business and consumer credit outstanding 972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and tion and capital consumption adjustments in cur(M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).— rent dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72) Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This Corporate profits after tax with inventory valua- 112. Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4, series may not be reproduced without written and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71) tion and capital consumption adjustments in 1982 permission from the source.) (38,76) dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) Net change in consumer installment credit (M).— 973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and Source 4 (32,72) Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).— inventory valuation and capital consumption adjust- 114, Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This ments to total corporate domestic income (Q).— bills (M).-Source4 (34,72) series may not be reproduced without written Source 1 (29,70) permission from the source.) (38,76) Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).— 974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacSource 4 (20,64) Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds turing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Trea(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source sury (34,73) This series may not be reproduced without written 4 (20,64) permission from the source.) (38,76) Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The 117Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4 (31,71) Bond Buyer (34,73) 975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturGross private nonresidential fixed investment in Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).— ing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting 1982 dollars (Q).-Sou reel (25,67) U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. Federal Housing Administration (34,73) This series may not be reproduced without written Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in permission from the source.) (38,76) 1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4 (34,72) 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (20,63) 74. (31,71) 961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (36,74,77) 104. 115 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued 976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing— about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Soureel (42,81) 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel (42,81) 247. Change in business inventories as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q)— Source 1 (47,83) 290. Gross saving (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 293. Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1 (46,83) 248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a 295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1 percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) (46,82) 298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1 (46,83) 978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, 1 (47,83) 310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (48,84) source.) (38,76) (Q).-Sourcel (44,82) 311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1 (48,84) 251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of II—A. National Income and Product gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars ( Q ) . - 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars (M).-Source3 (49,59,84,95) Source 1 (26,42,68,81) (Q).-Sourcel (44,82) 322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers, 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars food (M).-Source 3 (49,84) 1 (19,39,40,63,80) (Q).-Sourcel (44,82) 330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 3 (48,85) income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) (Q).-Sourcel (44,82) 331. Producer price index, crude materials for further 200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).— 256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars processing (M).-Source 3 (48,85) Source 1 (40,80) (Q).-Sourcel (44,82) 332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, sup213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q) -Source 1 (40,80) 257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars plies, and components (M).—Source 3 (48,86) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars 333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).— (Q).-Sourcesl and 2 (40,80) 260. Government purchases of goods and services in Source 3 (48,86) current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source 334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods 1 (45,82) 261. Government purchases of goods and services in (M).-Source 3 (48,86) 1982 dollars (Q). - S o u reel (43,81) 223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source 1 (40,63) 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1 (40,80) 263. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- 225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) vices as a percent of gross national product (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 266. State and local government purchases of goods and 231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 267. State and local government purchases of goods and 232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 268. State and local government purchases of goods and 346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average first year changes (Q).-Source 3 (50,88) 280. Compensation of employees (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and 349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average changes over life of contract (Q).—Source 3 (50,88) 233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) 237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sourcel (42,81) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 116 vices in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 vices in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) (43,81) (43,81) (43,81) capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).— Source 1 (45,82) 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua- 335. Producer price index, industrial commodities (M).-Source3 (48,85) 340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source 3 (49,87) 341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,87) 345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,87) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) 370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) II—C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 (18,51,62,89) 441. Civilian labor force (M) -Source 3 (51,89) 442. Civilian employment (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 444. tion and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 445. 288. Net interest (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) Number unemployed, males 20 years and over (M).-Source3 (51,89) Number unemployed, females 20 years and over (M).-Source3 (51,89) vU.S. G.P.O. 1 9 8 8 - 2 0 1-470:8000 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M).-Source3 (51,89) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers ( M ) . — Source 3 (51,89) 448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3 (51,89) II—D. Government Activities 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source 1 (52,90) 501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1 570. Employment, defense products industries (M).— Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,91) 577. Defense Department military personnel on active duty (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct Nre employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (54,91) 47. United States, index of industrial production (M) . Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 320. United States, consumer price index for all urban consumers (M).-Source 3 (49,59,84,95) 721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (58,94) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).-Central Statistical Office (London) (58,94) 723. Canada, index of industrial production ( M ) . — Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (58,94) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).— Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (58,94) 726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (58,94) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).— Source 2 (54,91) 502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Istituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome) (58,94) II—E. U.S. International Transactions 510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q).— Source 1 (52,90) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (58,94) 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).— Source 2 (56,92) 511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).— Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) (52,90) 512. State and local government expenditures (Q).— Source 1 (52,90) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the (56,92) Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Direc- 612. General imports (M).-Source 2 torate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Depart ment of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military (Q)-Source 1 (57,93) 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).— Source 2 (53,90) 652. Income on foreign investment in the United States (Q).-Sourcel (57,93) 557. Index of industrial production, defense and space equipment (M).-Source 4 (54,91) 667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (EOM). -Source 2 (54,91) 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).—Source 2 (54,91) 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) (57,93) 668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) II—F. International Comparisons 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 732. United Kingdom, consumer price index ( M ) . — Department of Employment (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 735. West Germany, consumer price index Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of ic Analysis (M).— percent Econom(59,95) 736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).—Central Statistical Office (London) (59,96) 743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Toronto Stock Exchange (Toronto) (59,96) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices ( M ) . — Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (59,96) 746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (59,96) 747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d'ltalia (Rome) (59,96) 748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan (Tokyo) (59,96) Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS Penalty for Private Use $300 FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID USGPO PERMIT No. G-26