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i

BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
APRIL 1988




U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS




U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
C. William Verity, Secretary
Robert Ortner, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
George R. Green, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Mary D. Young—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Peter M. Taylor, Council of Economic Advisers
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.

Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestig, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence

concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.

Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

BCII

iii

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6

APRIL 1 9 8 8
Data Through March
Volume 28, Number 4

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Al
A2
A3
A4

Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7

Cl
C2
C3

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

Chart
10
12
14
15

Table
60
—
—
—

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

36
—
39

74
77
—

The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department.




ItCII




PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
E l

NATIONAL INCOME

AND PRODUCT
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
pAHj
Foreign Trade
1 A6 I National Income and Its Components
[_A7J
Saving
1 ~A8 ! Shares of GNP and National Income
• ? •

Chart
Table
40
80
41
80
42
81
43
81
44
82
45
82
46
82
47
83

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

48
49

84
87

[ Cl ]

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

51

89

WE
| Dl 1
! D2 |

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

52
53

90
90

Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

56
57

92
93

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

58
59
59

94
95
96

fBin
|~B2 1
Q |

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
B. Current Adjustment Factors (March 1988 issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (January 1988 issue)

F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series FindingGuide
Titles and Sources of Series

97

105
106
110
114

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Business Conditions Digest,
Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce,
Washington, DC 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
Changes in this issue are as follows:

source agencies in

1. Recent revisions in retail sales in current and 1982
dollars (series 54 and 5 9 ) , manufacturing and trade sales in
1982 dollars (series 5 7 ) , and the ratio of manufacturing and
trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (series 77) have
been carried back to 1978. Revised data from 1983 forward
for these series were introduced in the March 1988 BCD.
(See item 1 on page iii of that issue.)
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, Business Division (series 5 4 ) , and Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division (series 57, 59, and
77).

concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of

2. The series on manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (series 56) has been revised from 1967 forward,
and the series on manufacturing and trade inventories in current dollars (series 31 and 71) have been revised from 1980
forward. These revisions reflect (a) revised data on retail
sales from 1967 forward (see item 1 on page iii of the April
1987 and March 1988 ]3CD) and retail inventories from 1980
forward, and (b) revised data on merchandise wholesale sales
and inventories from 1980 forward. In this issue, revised
data on manufacturing and trade inventories are carried back
to 1982; earlier revisions will be included in a future issue.
Revised data for the constant-dollar series based wholly
or in part on these data (series 36, 57, 70, and 77) will be
included in a future issue.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, Business Division.
(Continued on page iv.)
The May issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on June 7.




indexes, etc.

3. Recent revisions in the money supply measures (series 85, 102, and 105-108)
have been carried back to 1947, and revisions in total liquid assets (series 104)
have been carried back to 1959. Revised data from 1986 forward for these series
were introduced in the February 1988 BCD. (See item 9 on page iv of that issue.)
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics,
Banking Section.
4. The series based wholly or in part on consumer installment credit (series
66, 95, 111, and 113) have been revised from 1980 forward. These revisions reflect
the updating of the statistics based on newly available benchmark data and the computation of new seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics,
Mortgage and Consumer Finance Section (series 66 and 113), and the U.S. Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division (series
95 and 111).
5. The series containing data on commercial paper issued by nonfinancial companies (series 72, 101, 111, and 112) have been revised from 1984 forward. Data
from 1985 forward were revised by the source agency to reflect annual updating and
the computation of new seasonal adjustment factors. Data for 1984 through 1987 were
adjusted to reflect an increase in the size of the reporting panel. (For additional
revisions affecting series 111, see item 4 above.)
In addition, the series on commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982
dollars (series 101) has been revised from 1947 forward to incorporate the recent
revision in the producer price index used as a deflator. (See item 4 on page iv of
the February 1988 BCD.)
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York, Market Reports Division, 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY
10045, and the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical
Indicators Division.
6. Appendix C contains historical data for series 6-8, 36, 53, 98, 99, 341,
732, 733, and 735-738.
7. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 50, 73, 74, and 86.




IV

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1962, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1952, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1976.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.

Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday




adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.

MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed
as a result of revisions in important economic
time series. The dates shown in this publication
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.

Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conformity to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.)
The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis, produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
\

CyclicalX
Timing
\ .

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(61 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(24 series)

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Economic
\Process

Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Orders and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (5 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(6 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)

Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

Business investment
expenditures
(1 series)

Velocity of money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (1 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Consumption and
trade (1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.

V.

VI.

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
margins (6 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Profits and profit
margins (2 series)

Money (1 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
\

Cyclical^v
Timing

1.

II.

EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)

Economic
N . Process

Industrial
production
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Consumption and
trade (3 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(7 series)

\^

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
MiL/lv/11 U M O
(41 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)




Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are other indexes based on leading indicators that
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include many
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident




indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
11 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at peaks and troughs,
all but one component of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.

Section 8. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 112 individual time series,
including the 21 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 18
series at all turns (of the 18, 14 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984

Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national product—personal consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in

the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.

Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.




Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services
(A4) is the compensation of government employees
and purchases from business and from abroad. It
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
of the national production; imports are not, but are
included in the components of GNP and are
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
international transactions is provided in section E.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
originate in the production of goods and services
attributable to labor and property supplied by
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
and expenditures during an accounting period.
Total gross saving includes personal saving,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and
government surplus or deficit.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
major expenditure components of GNP
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of GNP, and the major income
components of national income (compensation of
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of national income.

Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1976.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hoifrly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.

Section C. Labor
Unemployment

Force, Employment, and

This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D. Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense
Indicators.
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1976) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1976) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Basic Data

Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.

Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.

Rates of Change

^>^M#t^^^

nr /

Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3-or 4-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r -




2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data

Percent change
£

Series title and timing classification

of

Annual average

measure
1986

1987

3d Q
1987

4th Q
1987

1st Q
1988

Jan.
1988

Feb
1988

Mar.
1988

Jan.
to
Feb
1988

Feb.
to
Mar.
1988

3d Q
to
4th Q
1987

4th Q
to
1st Q
1988

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al.
910.
920.
930.
940.

Composite Indexes

Eleven leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

Leading Indicator Subgroups:
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917. Money and financial flows

179.3
164.7
141.9
116.1

189.6
169.4
142.5
118.9

191.8
169.8
142 . 2
119.5

191.0
172 . 6
143. 1
120.6

191.4
173.8
144 . 3
120.5

18

173. 0
143 . 6
120.5

191.7
174.0
144.3
120.6

193.3
174.5
144.9
120.4

109.5
103.4
119.0
143.9

NA
106 . 2
NA
145.9

NA
106.7
125 . 2
144 . 8

NA
107 . 1
NA
146 . 7

NA
106.7
NA
NA

NA
106 . 8
NA
144 . 6

NA
106.5
NA
148. 1

Hours
L,L,I
do
L.C.L....
L.C.L.... Thousands

40.7
3.4
370

41.0
3.7
320

40.9
3.7
303

41.2
3.9
296

41.0
3.8
325

41 .2
3.9
351

L.Lg.U.... Ratio
L.Lg.U.... 1967 = 100

0.500
138

0 . 6 16
153

0.652
158

0.67 1
160

0.670
156

0.646
153

189.44
109 . 6 7
102 . 2 8
24 , 8 8 4

192.42
110.2 7
103.29
25 , 1 6 4

193.86
110.97
104.26
25 , 3 2 4

1967 = 100
L.L.l
do
CCC...
do
Lg.Lg.Lg....
do
L,L,I

L.L.I—
L.L.I—
L.L.L....
L.L.I

do
do
do
do

0.2
0.7
0.8
-0.1

910
920
930
940

NA
0.4
NA
1 .3

NA
-0.4
NA
NA

914
915
9 16
9 17

0.7
0.2
2 .3

-0.5
-0. 1
-9 .8

1
21
5

-0.001
-2 .5

6 0
46

1 .6
0.5
1 .0
1 . 1

0.7
0.6
0.9
0.6

48
42
41
40

0 . 19

0.23

90

1 .3
0.6
0.5
0. 1

0.8
0 .3
0.4
-0.2

-0.4
1 .6
0.6
0.9

NA
106.9
NA
NA

NA
-0.3
NA
2 .4

NA
0.4
NA
NA

41.0
3.7
32 1

40.9
3.7
304

-0.5
-0.2
8.5

-0.2
0.
5 .3

0.669
156

0.696
159

0.023
2 .0

0.027
1 .9

193.00 194.57
1 10.84 111.18
103.83 104.34
25,205 25,342

194.01
110.90
104.61
25 , 4 2 6

0.8
0. 3
0.5
0.5

-0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.3

0. 11

-0.21

9.2

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average weekly hours, mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3
*5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted4)
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
*41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
40. Employees in goods-producing industries
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age3
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted4)
43. Unemployment rate (inverted4)3
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.4)3
*91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted4)
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3
B2.

U.C.C.... A.r.. bil. hrs
U.C.C.... Millions
do
CCC...
L.C.U.... Thousands
U.Lg.U.... Percent

L.Lg.U....
L.Lg.U....
L.Lg.U....
Lg.Lg.Lg....
Lg.Lg.Lg....

59 . 9 4

60.77

60.91

61.10

61.33

61 . 3 3

61 . 4 4

61.23

8,237
7 .0
2 .8
15.0
1.9

7 ,425
6 .2
2 .4
14.5
1 .7

7 , 199
6 . 0
2 .3
14.2
1 .6

7 ,082
5 .9
2 . 1
14 . 1
1 .5

6 ,928
5 . 7
2 .3
14.2
1.4

7 ,046
5.8
2.3
14.4
1 .4

6,938
5 .7
2 .3
14.4
1 .4

6,801
5 .6
2 .2
13.7
1 .4

37 1 3 . 3
3093.6

382 1 . 0
3152.1

3835 .9
3148.1

3880.8
3194.3

3902 . 6
32 1 0 . 1

3195. 1

3 2 13.4

do

2639.9

2695.1

2691. 3

2737.4

2741.4

2728.7

do

54 1 . 6

537 .2

534.9

540.7

542.0

540.2

125 . 1
128.4
130. 1
1595.0

129. 8
133.1
136.7
1655.2

130.9
133.7
13 8 . 6
1666.8

133.2
136.9
139.7
16 8 9 . 7

134.5
138.0
141 . 9
17 0 8 . 9

Thousands
Percent
do
Weeks
Percent

1 .5
0. 1
0.
0.
0.

2 .0
0. 1
0. 1
4.9
0.

1.6
0. 1
0.2
0.7
0. 1

2 .2
0.2
-0.2
-0.7
0. 1

37
43
45
91
44

322 1.9

0.6

0.3

1 . 2
1 . 5

0 .6
0.5

50
52

2744 .6

2751.0

0.6

0.2

1 .7

0. 1

5 1

541.2

544 .7

0 .2

0.6

1 . 1

0.2

53

134.4
137.7
141.9

134.4
137.9
141.8

134.6
138.3
141.9

0. 1
0.3
0. 1

1 . 8
2 .4
0.8
1 . 4

1 .0
0.8
1 .6
1 . 1

47
73
74
49

-0. 1
0.

0.9
1 .9

0. 1
0.

0. 1
-0. 3

3.8
2 .7

1 .5
0.5

6
7

1 .6
-1.44
1 .0
- 2

-0.1
-2 .82
0.2
3

1 .9
-0.54
2 . 1
5

-0.5
0.68
2 .6
- 1

8
25
96
32

0.6
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.9

NA
NA
0.
0.8
0.3

NA
NA
1 .8
1 .7
1 .6
4 . 7
6.8

56
57
75
54
59
55
58

1 .0
NA

12
13

Production and Income

Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars
*51. Personal income less transfer payments
in 1982 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction

CCC... A r., bil. dol
'....do
CCC...
CCC...
CCC...

Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars

CCC...
CCC...
C.L.I—
CCC...

Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3

L.C.U....
L.C.U....

B3.

18 5 . 3 1 1 8 9 . 8 1
1 0 6 . 4 3 109 . 23
9 9 . 6 1 102. 1 1
24 , 6 8 1 24 , 8 8 4

0.019
1.3

1977 = 100
do
do
A.r., bil. dol

do

79.7
78.6

8 1.0
80.5

8 1.4
81.0

82 . 3
82 . 9

82 . 6
82 . 6

82 . 8
83.0

82 . 6
82 . 4

do

99.93
92.94

107 . 4 8
98 . 03

108.41
98.68

112 . 5 6
101.37

114.26
101 . 8 4

114.20
101 . 9 6

114.26
101 . 9 3

Percent

8 0 . 83
- 0 . 10
361.86
52

84.52
84.69
2 . 33
3.2 1
389.86 381.85
6 1
64

8 6.15
2.67
389.86
69

85 . 7 2
3.35
399 .9 1
6 8

84.85
86.19
5 .25
3.81
395. 1 1 3 9 8.92
68
66

CCC... Bil. dol
do
CCC...
C.L.C.... 1977 = 100
C.L.U... Bil. dol
do
U.L.U...
L.C.C.... A.r., bil. dol
L.L.L... IQ 1966=100.

425 . 0 8
4 1 8 . 14
124 . 0
119.79
111.98
135.3
94.8

452.89
432 . 6 3
127.7
125 . 8 8
113,29
130.2
90.6

459.79
436 .76
128. 7
1 2 8 . 34
115 . 0 0
148.3
9 3.9

465 . 4 1
436.94
129 . 4
127.56
113.48
129.8
86 . 4

NA 4 6 5 . 7 3
NA 4 3 7 . 4 1
131.7
131 . 4
1 2 9 . 6 7 12 8 . 77
115 . 2 6 1 1 4 . 4 6
135.9
90.8
92 . 3

120.4
58,474

120.5
57 , 0 5 3

120.5
57 , 5 0 0

12 1 . 6
55,383

Percent

82 . 5
82 . 4

0.
0. 1
-0. 1

-0.2
-0.6

0.3
-0.3

82
84

Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries

Orders and Deliveries:
6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 ( u )
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment ( u )
B4.

L.L.I
L.L.L....
L.L.I—
L.L.I
L.Lg.U...
L.L.I

Bil. dol

do
do
Bil. dol., EOP ...

468.30
438.97
131.9
12 9 . 5 8
115 . 4 9

114.32
101.62
8 6 . 12
0.99
399 . 9 1
69

NA
NA
131.9
130.66
115.83

91.6

94.6

0.9

3.3

1 .2
0.
0.5
-0.6
-1.3
-12.5
-8.0

122.8
NA

122 . 4
MA

-0.3
NA

-0.3
NA

0.9
-3.7

0.6

Fixed Capital Investment

Formation of Business Enterprises:
12. Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods




L.L.I—
L.L.I—

1967 = 100
Number

L.L.L...

Bil. dol

122.8
NA

12 3 . 2
54,913

31.22

34.41

35 . 3 7

36.21

38.41

38.60

38.83

37.79

L.L.L...
L.L.I—

do
do

34.17
26.56

37.65
29.61

39.05
30.42

39 . 4 7
31 . 4 6

42 . 5 9
33.95

43.45
34.79

42.76
33.75

41 . 5 7
33.31

L.L.L...

do

30.03

33.47

34.76

35.36

38.76

40.17

3 8 . 39

37.72

-2 .7

2 .4

6 . 1

10

-1.6
-3.0

-2.8
-1.3

1 . 1
3.4

7 . 9
7.9

2C
24

-4.4

-1.7

1 .7

9.6

27

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
Unit
Series title and timing classification

Annual average
3d Q
1987

4th Q
1987

Jan.
to
Feb.

1st Q
1988

3d Q
to
4th Q
1987

Feb.
to
Mar.

4th Q
to
1st Q
1988

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
Mil. sq. ft
industrial buildings, floor space
L,C,U.
Bil. dol
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
U,Lg,U.
I. dol., EOP .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations mfg.5
C,Lg,Lg....
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment
69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars
Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

77 . 0 6
2 1.42
69.72

80.73
29.37
76.81

C,Lg,Lg... A.r., bil. dol...
do
C,Lg,Lg...
C,Lg,U... 1977 = 100...
C,Lg,C... A.r., bil. dol...

. L,L,L.
. L,L,L.
. L.L.L.

85 . 14
29.81
74.7 1

80.83
33.98
76 .81

78.41
NA
NA

393. 13 409 . 37

-3.0
NA
NA

4. 1

391 . 4 3
139.5
443.8

403.03
144.4
448. 3

>12 .05
145.8
463.8

422 .73
148 .9
465.6

1,805
141.3
196 . 4

1,621
122 .5
196.4

1,619
119.4
193.5

1 ,533
114.1
197.0

1 ,480
110.2
192 .2

60.5

A.r., thousands
1967 = 100....
A.r., bil. dol....

-5 . 1
14.0

57 .9

5 .33
1 .7

27 . 4 9
52.7

27 . 5 9
34.6

6 5 7 . 12 7 0 9 . 8 5
6 4 3 . 2 9 669.04
103.23
107 . 5 7

NA
151.6
488.3

435 .30 435.58

NA
152.4

0. 1
0.3

NA
0.7

2 .6
2 . 1
0.4

NA
1 .8
4 .9

1 , 5 14
113.4

31 . 34
81 . 3

41.68
62. 1

39.29
9.9

689.51
658.31
104.77

709.85
669.04
107 . 5 7

715.03
674.53
108.70

715 .85
675.57
109 .29

1.5 1

1.52

1.54

1 , 543
116.9

9.6
13.2

-5.3
-4.4
1.8

-3.5
-3.4
-2.4

35 .9

1 , 382
100.2

-2 .6

1. 54

1 .9
3. 1

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
*36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (smoothed6)3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories3
38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order'
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories5
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars 5 ..
•
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods5
•
*77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars3
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order5

L,L,L..
L.L.L.
L.L.L..
L.L.L..

Lg,Lg,Lg..
Lg,Lg,Lg..

....do
....do

-2 .39
-52 .2

3.75
46 .7

Bil. dol

Bil. dol., EOP .
....do
....do

3.0
1 .6
2 .7

Lg.Lg.Lg.... Ratio

1.54

1 .52

0.01
L.Lg.Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP .

226.64

246 . 6 7

2 4 0 . 18

246 . 6 7

250.76

25 1.2 1
2 .7

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial m a t e r i a l s ©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3

L.L.I
Percent
U.L.L.... 1967 = 100
L.L.I
Percent

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks ( u )

L.L.L...

Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
, in 1982 dollars
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business

L.L.I A.r., bil. dol...
....do
L.L.L..
L.C.L...
....do
....do
L.C.L..
L.L.I Cents
L.L.I
1977 = 100...

126 .
116.7
179.4
170.0
3.7
99 . 2

137.8
123.2
168.4
154.3
4 .
99 .6

141.9
126 .8
172.0
157 .7
5 .6
100.2

145.6
129.5
173.0
157.3
4.3
99.9

2 .6
2 . 1
0.6
-0.3
-1.3
-0.

Cash Flows:
34. Corporate net cash flow
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars

L.L.L... A.r., bil. dol..
....do
L.L.L...

368.9
369 . 0

388. 3
388.0

3 9 2.2
391.5

397 .9
397 .8

1.5
1.

0.8

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg.Lg.Lg...
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfinancial corporations
Lg.Lg.Lg...
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Actual data
Lg.Lg.Lg...
*b) Actual data as percent of trend3
Lg,Lg,Lg...
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income3

0.43
228.9
O. 16

1 .35
274.5
0.98

286.83

1941-43 = 10.

1 .26
293.2
1 .05

0.72
291.2
0 . 17

0.60
292 .5
0.33

255 . 3 8

2 .28
288.3
1.50

2 5 8 . 12

250.48

1977 = 100

166.9

170.2

169.8

0 . 7 15

0.728

0.727

137.8
10 0 . 4

135.4
98 . 7

134.6
98. 1

134.9
98 . 3

1 .32
0.29
0.76
0.27
0.65
0.38
587 . 0
631.8
2 3 6 6 . 2 2430.4

0.24
0.34
0.39
630. 1
2424.3

0 . 15
0.24
0.3 3
630.5
2425 . 3

6.065
1.311

6.116
1.331

-0.53
-1.2
-0.26

1 .42
1 .2
0.03

-1 .02
1 .7
-0.45

-0.54
-0.7
-0.88

2 5 8 . 13 26 5 .74

0.735

1977 = 100
Percent

1.49
292 .3
0. 10

17 1 . 2

Dollars

0.07
288.9
0.07

1 .1
134.6
98 . 1

136.0
99 . 1

0. 1
0. 1

1.0
1 .0

0.2
0.2

0. 1
0. 1

1 .07
0.09
0.55
0.72
0.77
0.83
NA
0.89
0.75
631.5
631 .9
63 1.4
2 4 4 6 . 8 2 4 3 5 . 6 2449 .2

0 .49
0.77
NA
631.3
2455 .7

-0.98
-0.11
- 0 . 14
-0. 1
0.6

0.40
0.05
NA
0.
0.3

-0.09
- 0 . 10
-0.06
0. 1
0.

0.40
0.53
N
A
0.2
0.

135.0
98 . 4

134.4
98 .0

B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply M l 3
102. Change in money supply M23
104. Change in total liquid assets3
105. Money supply M l in 1982 dollars
*106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars

L,L,L
L.C.U
L.L.L
L.L.L
L.L.L

do
do
do
Bil dol

Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply M l 3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23

C.C.C.
C.Lg.C.

Ratio

Credit
33.
112.
113.
*111.
110.

Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt3
Net change in business loans'
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers

Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted 4 ) 3




5

do...

L.L.L.
L.L.L.
L.L.L.
L.L.L.
L.L.L.

A.r., bil. dol...
do
do
A.r., percent..
A.r., bil. dol...

L.L.L.

Percent, EOP

6.362
1.316

NA
9.32
54 . 08
6. 4
625.70

6.032
1.309

NA
NA
NA
9.42 -2 1.68
37.29
41 . 19 6 0 . 4 0
4 0 . 17
6.2
5.2
9.2
5 4 6 . 9 4 582 .66 6 1 3 . 7 8

2.47

2 .47

6. 128
1.323

NA
-2 1.07
NA
MA
NA

0.012
0. 05 1
0.020 - 0 . 0 0 8

-0.002

NA
-69.82
74.83
1.6

NA
NA
NA
7 1 . 7 8 - 6 5 . 16 1 4 1 . 6 0
63 . 6 5
NA - 1 1 . 1 8
NA
9 .2
10.8

NA

-136.94
NA
NA

NA
58.97 - 5 8 .
-20.23
4.0
5

.12

NA
36
NA
NA
NA

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data
Unit

Series title and timing classification

of

Percen change

Annual average

measure
1986

1987

Jan.
3d Q
1987

1987

1st Q
1988

Jan.
1988

Feb.
1988

Feb.

to
Feb.
1988

Mar.
1988

to
Mar.
1988

3d Q
to
4th Q
1987

4th Q
to
1st Q
1988

M

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
B7. Money and Credit—Con.
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves ( i n v e r t e d 4 ) 3 ©
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 ©
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate3 ©
114. Discount rate on new Treasury b i l l s 3 ©
116. Yield on new high-grade corporate b o n d s 3 ©
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 ©
117. Yield on municipal bonds3 ©
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages 3 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term business l o a n s 3 ©
*109. Average prime rate charged by b a n k s 3 ©
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income3

L.U.U.... Mil. dol
do
L.Lg.U....

93
836

241
756

109
753

245
782

40
1,077

2 13
1 ,082

737
396

-830
1 ,752

-524
-686

1 ,567
1 , 356

-136
29

205
295

-0.26
-0.24
-0.73
-0.63
-0.56
-0.66
-0.10
-0.28

6.80
5 .97
9.23
8.14
7 . 32
9.9 1
8.11
8 . 33

6 .66
5 .83
9.69
8.63
7 .64
10.16
8 . 09
8.20

6 .84
6.03
10.14
9.08
7 .93
10.72
8.20
8 .40

6 .92
6 .00
10.37
9 .24
8.20
10 . 7 6
8 .47
8.87

6 .66
5 .76
9 .64
8.6 1
7 .64
1 0 . 10
8.37
8.59

6 . 83
5.90
9 . 81
8.82
7 .69
10.17

6.58
5 .69
9.43
8.41
7 .49
9 . 86

6.58
5 .69
9.68
8.6 1
7 .74
10.28

-0.25
-0.2 1
-0.38
-0.41
-0.20
-0.31

0.
0.
0.25
0.20
0.25
0.42

8.75

8.5 1

8.50

-0.24

-0.01

0.08
-0.03
0.23
0 . 16
0.27
0.04
0.27
0.47

Lg.Lg.Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 57 1 . 8 3
352.36
Lg.Lg.Lg.... Bil. dol

613.02
3 7 8.82

602 . 9 8
373.48

613.02
3 7 9 . 15

NA
379.51

619.26
377 . 3 3

624.56
3 8 3 . 32

NA
377 . 88

0.9
1.6

NA
-1.4

1 .7
1.5

351.80

368.59

360.28

3 6 4 . 10

362.59

361.08

366.46

360.23

1.5

-1.7

15.57

15.77

15.91

15.81

NA

15.99

1 6 . 04

NA

1982 = 100
1982-84 = 100.
Percent
1982-84 = 100.
1982 = 100
do
do
do
do
do

1 14. 1
109 . 6
O.I
109.0
1OO.2
100.0
87 . 7
99 . 1
109.7
101.4

117.5
113.6
0.4
113.5
102 . 8
102 . 6
93. 7
101.5
111.7
103.6

117.9
1 14.4
0.3
114.1
103.7
103.4
96 . 1
102 . 3
112.0
104.4

118.7
115 . 4
0.3
1 14.9
104. 1
104. 1
95 . 2
103.6
112.1
104.3

119.4
116.1
0.3
115.5
104.7
104.5
94. 1
104.4
112.8
104 . 3

115.7
0. 3
115.6
104.5
104.3
93.6
104 . 2
1 12 . 5
104.3

116.0
0.2
115.3
104.6
104.4
94.5
104.2
112.7
103.9

116.5
0.5
115.7
104.9
104.7
94. 1
104.8
113.2
104.6

1977 = 100

169.3

173.5

174.0

175.5

176 . 7

176 . 4

176 . 5

177 . 1

95.0
181.2
100.2
109.5
107.5

94. 0
186.3
99.4
110.6
108.5

93.7
18 7 . 1
99.3
111.3
109.1

93.7
188.6
99.2
111.3
109.2

93.6
NA
NA
NA
NA

93.7

93.6

93.6

119.86
112 . 4 4
7 ,425
3, 369
2 , 709
1 , 347
5,979

120.05
112.85
7 , 199
3 ,233
2,671
1,296
5 ,767

120.57
113.49
7 , 082
3 , 124
2 , 6 15
1 , 342
5 ,670

12 1 . 1 4
114.2 1
6,928
3 , 105
2 , 542
1,282
5,550

12 1 . 1 8
114.13
7 , 046
3,154
2,581
1 ,312
5 ,603

7 8.0
56.2
54 . 7

7 7.9
56 . 3
54 . 9

7 7.9
56.5
55 . 1

7 8.0
56.7
54.9

7 7.9
56.7
56 . 0

A.r., bil. dol
do
do
do
do
do

- 2 0 4 . 7 - 1 5 1 . 4 - J 35 . 8 - 1 6 0 . 2
827 . 4
9 15.7
9 2 3.0
937.6
1 0 3 2 . 0 1 0 6 7 . 1 1 0 5 8 . 8 1097 . 8
56 . 8
44 . 0
46 . 5
37 . 9
6 18.8
6 5 1.1
657.6
663 . 5
607.1
56 1 . 9
625.6
6 11.1

NA
NA
109 1 . 9
NA
NA
635.4

Mil. dol
do
do
1977 = 100
Thousands
A.r., bil. dol

29 , 9 8 8 3 0 , 8 1 2
1 1 , 998 1 2 , 0 3 2
9 ,099
9 , 199
182 . 0
189. 1
1,597
1 ,585
277.8
295.2

Mil. dol
do
do
do
do
do

18,052 2 1,071 20,737
2 , 164
2 ,400
2,700
3,907
4,428
4 ,466
30,505 33,825 34,579
2 ,894
3 ,471
4 ,046
5,578
5 ,896
5,705

L.Lg.Lg.... Percent
do
C,Lg,Lg....
Lg.Lg.Lg....
do
C.Lg.Lg....
do
do
U.Lg.Lg....
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg.Lg.Lg....
do
Lg.Lg.Lg....

Lg.Lg.Lg....

do

Lg.Lg.Lg.... Percent

1 . 1

NA
0.1
-0.4

NA

- 0 . 10

NA

0.3
-0. 1
-0.3
0.1
0. 1
1 .0
0.
0.2
-0.4

0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.4
0.6
0.4
0.7

0 . 7
0.9
0.
0.7
0.4
0.7
-0.9
1 .3
0. 1
-0. 1

0 .6
0.6
0.
0.5
0.6
0.4
- 1 .2
0.8
0.6
0.

0. 1

0.3

0.05

93
94

119
1 14
1 16
115
117
118
6 7
109

66
72
101
95

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
B l . Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
335.
331.
332.
333.
334.

Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) © . . . .
Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3
Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food
Producer price index (PPI), all commodities ©
PPI, industrial commodities ©
PPI, crude materials for further processing
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods

3 1 0
32C
320
322
330
335
331
332
333
334

B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagncultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagncultural payrolls
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
370. Output per hour, business sector
358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector

do
do
do
do
do

0.9

0.7

34C

-0. 1

0.

0.
0. 8
-0.1
0 .
0 . 1

-0. 1
NA
NA
NA
NA

341
34 5
346
37C
3 5?

0.1
C.2
-1.5
- 2 .6
2 . 1
-6. 1
-1.0

-0.4
-0.3
-2 .0
0.6
-8.5
5 .6
-0.9

0.4
0.6
-1.6
-3.4
-2 . 1
3.5
-1.7

0.5
0.6
-2.2
-0.6
-2 .8
-4.5
-2.1

44 1
442
37
444
445
446
447

0. 3
0. 1
-1.1

-0.3
-0.2
-1.0

0 .
0.2
0.2

0 . 1
0 . 2
-0.2

45 1
452
453

-24.4
1 . 6
3. 7
-8.6
0 . 9
2 .4

NA
NA
-0.5
t'A
NA
1 .6

50C
5 0
502
5 1C
5 1
512

-14.2
-20.5
0.8
0. 1
0. 1
0 . 3

NA
NA
-9.6
0.4
MA
-0.7

517
525
54?

13.1
-7.7
13.1
4 . 7
-15.7
15 . 0

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

6 02
60^
606
612
61/

C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.

Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed, full-time workers

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451 Males 20 years and over3
452. Females 20 years and over3
453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age3

Millions
do
Thousands
do
do
do
do

Percent
do
do

117.83
109.60
8 ,237
3,751
3 ,032
1 ,454
6,708

78.1
55.5
54.7

12 1 . 3 5 1 2 0 . 9 0
114.41 114.10
6,938
6,801
3 ,07 1
3 , 089
2,411
2,635
1,232
1,301
5 ,498
5 ,549

7 8.2
56 . 8
54.9

77.9
56.6
53.9

D. Government Activities
D l . Receipts and Expenditures
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.

Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit3
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures
D2. Defense Indicators

517.
525.
548.
557.
570.
564.

Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs.' new orders, defense products
Industrial production, defense and space equipment
Employment, defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense

32,850
13,386
9,519
189.2
1,597
299.0

28,186
10,636
9 ,596
189.3
1 , 599
299.8

NA
NA
8,677
190. 1
NA
297.7

3 1 , 1 5 7 33 , 2 4 3
7,871 1 1,080
9 , 104
8,590
190.1
190.3
1 ,606
1 ,604

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

22 , 3 3 0 2 3 , 5 5 9
2 ,634
2 ,936
NA
NA
3 3 , 2 18 35 , 8 1 8
N'A
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
8, 336
189.8
NA

6.7
40.8
- 5 .6
0. 1
-0. 1

NA
NA
-3.0
-0.3
NA

55"
57(
56 l

E. U.S. International Transactions
E l . Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments ©
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports ©
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Imports of automobiles and parts




2 3,450
2 ,49 1
5 , 05 0
36,2 1 1
3 ,410
6 ,559

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

5 .5
11.5
NA
7 . 8
NA
NAI

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

6H

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data

Percent change

Unit
of

Annual average

2d Q

measure

1st Q
1987

4th Q

2dQ
1987

3d Q

to
3d Q
1987

3d Q
1987

4th Q

4th Q
to
1st Q

1987

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667. Balance on goods and services3

Bil. dol

668. Exports of goods and services

...do..

669. Imports of goods and services

...do..

622. Balance on merchandise trade3

...do..

618. Merchandise exports, adjusted

...do..

620. Merchandise imports, adjusted

...do..

651. Income on U.S. investment abroad

...do..

652. Income on foreign investment in the United States

...do..

-25 .27
89.86
115.14
-30.54
53.98
84.52
22 . 0 8
15.72

-31.42
93.20
124.62
-36.08
56 .09
92.18
22.05
16.84

-36.80 -33.84 -33.83 -38.27 -40.52 -34.59
10 5.03
93.89
98 .73 100.07 105 .66 115 .66
141.83 127.73 132.56 138.34 146 . 1 8 150.25
-39.80 -38.60 -38.92 -39.74 - 4 0 . 36 -40. 17
62.7 0 57 .02 56.77
5 9.88 65.11
69.06
102 .50 95 .62 95 .69
99 .62 105 .48 109 .2 3
24.94
24 .96
22 .46
29 .66
20.79
22.69
2 1.32
20.88
19 .45
22.40
22 .57
16.30

40 10.3
3607.5
15 ,073
3600.1
2841.1
2542 .2
10,622

4 2 3 5.0
37 13.3
15,368
3699.5
3022 . 1
2645. 1
10,947

4488 . 5
382 1 .0
15,672
3778. 1
3181.7
2677.2
10,980

4288.1
3731.5
15,388
3 7 4 5.8
3061 .6
2656.7
10,956

2967.8
2497 .2
413.7
388.2
982 .9
878. 1
157 1.2
1230.9

2858 .6
248 0.5

-2 .25
5.6
5 .7
-0.62
8.7
5 .9
1 .0
7 .3

5 .93
9.5
0. 19
6. 1
3.6
30.7
0.8

A. National Income and Product
Al.

GNP and Personal Income
A.r., bil. dol..

200. Gross national product

...do

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars

A.r., dollars..

213.

A.r., bil. dol..

Final sales in 1982 dollars

224. Disposable personal income

....do

....do

225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars

A.r., dollars..

4377.7
3772.2
15,525
3724.5
3125 .9
2674.6
11,008

4445 . 1
3795 .3
15 ,588
37 56.3
3130.6
2645 .5
10,865

4524.0
3 8 3 5.9
15,7 15
381 1 .4
3 195.3
2674.7
10,958

4607 .4 4 6 6 0 . 9
3880.8 3 9 0 2 . 6
15 ,859 15 , 9 1 0
3 8 2 0.3 3 8 4 4 . 7
3275 . 0 3 3 2 0 . 2
27 13.8 2 7 3 5 . 4
1 1 , 0901 1 , 1 5 1

1 .8
1. 1
0. 8
1 .5
2 . 1
1 . 1
0.9

1 .8
1 .2
0.9
0.2
2 .5
1 .5
1 .2

1.2
0.6
0.3
0.6
1 .4
0.8
0.6

A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
.r., bil. dol.

230. Total

do

231. Total in 1982 dollars.
232. Durable goods

.do.

233. Durable goods in 1982 dollars.

.do.

236. Nondurable goods.

.do.

238. Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars.

.do.

237. Services

.do
do

239. Services in 1982 dollars

2629.4
2352.6 2450.5
368.7
402 .4
352.7
3 8 3.5
9 13.1 939.4
849 . 5 877 .2
1 347 . 5 1458.0
1150.4 1189.8

2893.8
2475 .9
419.8
396 . 1
399 . 0
375.9
946 . 3 969.9
880.3
883.2
1492 . 4 1527 .7
1 2 0 1 . 1 12 16.9

2943 . 7 3011.
2487 .5 2 5 2 0 .
409 . 0 436.8
385 .4 406.9
982 . 1 986 .4
879.0
875.7
1552 .6 1588. 1
1223. 1 1238. 1

3022 .6
2504.6
413.0
384.5
993. 1
874.6
16 16.5
1245.6

3 06 8.7
2528.2
425 .7
396 .2
993.9
874.2
1649.0
1257.7

2 .3
1 .3
6 .8
5 .6
0.4
-0.4
2 .3
1 .2

0.4
-0.6

1 .5
0.9
3. 1
3.0
0. 1
0
2 .0
1 .0

A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240. Total
241. Total in 1982 dollars

...do..

242.

Fixed investment

...do..

243.

Fixed investment in 1982 dollars

245. Change in business inventories3

..do...

30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3

..do...

641.6
636. 1
631.6
628. 7
10.0
7 .4

671.0
654.0
655 .2
640.2
15.7
13.8

717.5
6 8 7.6
67 1.5
644. 7
46 . 1
42.9

660.2
63 1.0
666.6
645 .4
-6 .4
-14.4

699.
67 1 .
648.

702 .6
673.7
662.3
634.7
40. 3
39 .0

707 .4
681 .9
684.5
657.3
22 .9
24 .6

760.2
723.1
690. 8
662.6
69.4
60.5

761 .9
738.4
704.9
680.5
57 .0
57.9

818.6
726.9
353.9
324 .2
464.7
402 . 7

869.7
754.5
366 . 2
332 .5
503.5
422 . 1

922.8
771.7
379.4
336.0
543.4
435.8

886. 3
77 1.8
368.6
344.6
517.7
427 . 1

896 .2
759 .6
366.9
327.3
529 .3
432 .3

917.1
766 . 7
379.6
332 .6
537 .6
434. 1

929.0
77 1.7
3 8 2.1
336.3
546. 9
435 .4

9 48.8
788.9
388.9
347.6
559.9
441 .3

945.6
76 8.3
376 .8
325 .3
568.9
442 .9

1 .
0.7
0.7
1. 1
1 .7
0.3

-123.7 -124.3 -115.4
-138.4 -135.8 -132 .2
439.2
458. 1
470.6
437 . 1 453.5
464.6
562.9
582.4
586.0
575 .6 589 .3 596.8

-5 .3
-5 .7
5 .5
5 .5
5 .3
5.

-0.6
2 .6
4.3
3.8
3 .5
2 .4

3229.9 3422 .0 3636 . 0 347 1 .0 3548.3 3593.3 3659.0 3743 . 5
MA
2 3 7 0 . 8 2504.9 2647 .6 2 5 5 2 . 0 2589
2623.4 2663.5 27 13.5 2762 .4
297.8
257 .
289 .8
327.4
320.9
323. 1
322 .7 342
336.7
9 .0
16.7
18.4
19. 3
20.0
18.9
17 .3
20.9
2 1.1
277 .6
284.4
304 .7 281.1
294 .0 296 . 8 314.9
313.0
NA
315.3
326 . 1 337.1
321.7
323.6
331.1
353.3
3 5 6.2
340.6

1 .8
1 .5
-0.1
-8.5
6.1
2 .9

2 .3
I .
6.2
20.8
-0.6
3.7

NA
1 .8
-1 .8
1 .0
NA
0.8

531.3
532.0
565.2
515.3
554 .3
537.2
549 .2
544.4
553.6
545.3
127 . 1 130.6
119.0
109.0
138.4
-132.9 -147.8 -107 .4 -13 8. 1 -129.5
4.5
4. 3
3.7
3 .6
4.4

2 .4
-4.
-0.
-0.2

6.5
0.5
75.3
-33.0
2 .0

NA
NA
-1 .7
NA
-0.2

0.7
1.2
3.4
3.6
-17.4
-14.4

7 .5
6 .0
0.9
0.8
46 .5
35 .9

0.2
2. 1
2 .0
2 .7
-12.4
-2.6

A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
260. Total

..do..

261. Total in 1982 dollars

..do..

262. Federal Government

..do..

263.

...do..

Federal Government in 1982 dollars

266. State and local government

..do..

267. State and local government in 1982 dollars

...do..

2. 1
2 .2
1 .8
3.4
2 .4
1 .4

-0,
-2 ,
-3,

A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services3

...do..

255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3

...do..

252. Exports of goods and services
256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
253. Imports of goods and services
257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

-79.2
-105 .5 -119.6 -116.9 -112.2 -118.4
- 108.2 -145.8 -135.5 -151.8 -135.2 -132.7
369.9
427 .8 383. 3
416.5
376 .2
397.3
3 6 5.3 377 .4 425 .8 3 88.3 397
414.5
449 .2
547 .4 5 0 0.2 509
534.8
481.7
473.6
547 .2
540 . 1 533.0
5 2 3.2 561.3

8.9
3 .6
2 .7
2 .4
0.6
1 .3

A6. National Income and Its Components
220. National income

..do..

280. Compensation of employees

..do..

282. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAd]

..do..

284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj

..do..

286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj .

..do..

288. Net interest

..do..
A7. Saving

290. Gross saving

..do..

295. Business saving

...do..

292. Personal saving

...do..

298. Government surplus or deficit3

...do..

293. Personal saving rate3

(*)

are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in

figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.

current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted

(used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAd), capital consumption

adjustment.
:

The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all

turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident: Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.




595 .9
NA
562 .6
NA
155.7
153.1
NA
-89.3 -122 .3
4.8
4.6
2 .8
559. 3
559 .8

For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by @ , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk

55 1.3
546 . 7
93.2
-88.6
3. 0

1

Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of

the changes are reversed.
s

End-of-penod series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the

period.
'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart A l . Composite Indexes
July Ma\
P

Ab? ApP

1

T

ApP

^
T

Dec Nov.
P T

P

V.jr
T

Jan 'ij Iv
P !

!ui>

P

Nov
T

index: 1967-1001

910. Index of eleven leading indicators1
(series 1, 5, 8,19, 20, 29, 12, 36, 99,106, 111)

920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators
(series 4 1 , 4 7 , 5 1 , 5 p
^

7_

n , . ,<,:,

u ,.?•>,

"3 .

-6
-2

930. Index of six laggin|||tdicator$
f£
(series 62, 77, 9 1 ^ , 101,109) [c-i

>4

C

1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.

Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

10



APRIL 1988

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued
Aug. Apr.
P

T

Apr Feb.
P

T

Dec. New
P

!

Nov.

Mar

Jan. July July

Nov.

P

T

P I P

T

120-1
11010090-

140-i
130120 1101009080-

160150140130 1201101009080-

70-

1401
130 120110 100 90

1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates,
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

APRIL 1988




J

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components
July May
P

T

Aug. Apr.
P

T

Dec. Nov.

Apr. Feb.
P

P

T

T

Nov.

Mar.

P

T

Jan. Juiy Juiy

P T

P

Nov
T

1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours)

initial claims for unemployment insurance, State

rers'new orders in 1982 dollarsipsumef goodi

32}j§|ndor performance, percent of

. Contracts and orders for plant and

i l l ••;•••

i i

11 r

lip

1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, and 66.

12



APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
July May

Aug. Apr.

Apr. Fee

Dec, Nov.

P

T

Nov.

Mar.

P

T

Jan. July July

Nov

P

T

P T

29. New private housing units authorized by local

trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil.

i l l . Change in business and consumer

1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
1
This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 71, and 72.

ItCII APRIL 1988



1
3

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
DP.

N /

PI

P

41. Employees on nonagricuttural payrolls (millions)

300028002600 2400-

51. Personal income fcis transfer payments in
1982 dollars (ann, rate, bit dol.) :

220020001800-

150140130120-

47. Industrial prodictionitodex: 1977 — f t p

110 -

^f

10090-

iw

•$£<\

500450 -

~ * ~

400 -

57. Manufacturing and trade sales in
1982 dollars 1 |

350-

300-

250-

~, -^

200-

*'-"?& *

150 -

1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 S3 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

1
4



APRIL 1988

Kill

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
July May
P

T

Aug.Air
P

7

Dec, Nov.

Apr. Feb.
P

P

I

T

Nov. Mar.
P

Jan.Juiy July
p x
P

T

91. Average duration of u
I 0 Iff I
1012 •
14-

^^L

16182022i.81716-

m

l.h •
1.4 •

Labor cost jier K J # | I ^
110-|

100 9590 -

19 1

ib 131197«
450 400350 300 250-

200 -

150

J

ZL

•••

:

•

i i '
IIP
W:
If BSk-

1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86

87 881989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

ItCII

APRIL 1988




1
5

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
Dec.

Nov

Nov.

P

T

an. July
P T

Mar.

P

T

.
i^/Vs

P

•i l l

i

[Marginal Employ merit Adjustments]

Nov
T

July

I H Average weekly N f | | f production or nonsupervisory vf|er$,
;!|ji|manulacturing (h<i||f||§ |LfL,L| '
U

L,

•

S^S

T|lW

Mem J/

1 S||
• lift
;

i iifiti s

SS§i'

.

^

.

•• j

•:

t.

M

^*Str

. • .".

'•••

r .|^ps

j
fplf
21. Avcgjjjweekly overtime iK^^lprockiction or nonsupervisory t§ker$,WmB
Si ^ ^ ^ 1
§f"fin8 ( o r )
h us
»

|nsforunemployment insurant!

newspapers (index: 1 9 6 7 = | p )

7T7^

HI

7
^
fifflf
1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 61.

1
6



APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Dec.

Nov

Nov.

T

P

Jan. July

Mar.

P

T

P

T

July
P

Nov
T

200 190-

180-

170-

160-

150 J

115110105100-

95-

42. Persons eneaeed in

90858075 -

70-

65-

272625242322-

626160595857565554-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

Kill

APRIL 1988




1
7

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

Chart B l . Employment and U n e m p l o y m e n t — C o n t i n u e d

1 Comprehensive Unemployment |

37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale)
|Ug,U

43. UnempJoym&rtrate (percent—inverted scale)

9-

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale)

/

t
91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)

3

ft*
44. Unemployn»nt rate, persons u n e m p l ^ 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted:^)

1.962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.

1
8



APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDfCAVOPS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income

4400-

| Comprehensive Output and income [

4000 3600 -

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bit. dol.)
32m-

2800 2600 -

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars
{ann. rate, i ^ ^ | f F F F ] " " "—
""*

24013 ??00 2000 1800 1600 -

W^** i
1400

J

53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing,
and constitution (ann. rate, bit d<^.) ' C |Q r Q |

>?%«f
460 -

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.

KCII

APRIL 1988




1
9

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
Nov.

Dec. Nov.
F
1

Mar

Ian. July
P 1

Julv
P

Nov.
1

[-.industrial Production [

47. fcrtistrial production (Mm

1977=100)

73. Industrial production, durable manufactures
(index: 1 9 7 7 - 1 0 0 )

74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
1800 1700 16001500 -

v:

49. %$m of goods output b l i p dollars, Q
f % . rate, bil. dol.)

14001300 120011001000900800-

1 Capacity Utilization]
82. Capacity utili?^teiate, manufacturing (percent) ft,C,U
90 i

60

84. Capacity utilii#»iite, materials (percent) | L^C

J

90 T

7060 J
1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.

20



APRIL 1988

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Dec. Nov.
P
1
"

Nov.

SS ,

1 Orders and Deliveries]

Jan. July
PI

Mar

P

T

liHi

.

: ..

Suiy
P

Nov.
T

. 1
§

i i | j l Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods

6. Manufacturers new
durable goods i

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
••••.•• ^ i j j i

'iffl&m.

:

-•

r —

1 .

•" SfeaaSfefe &.• : •. -.--i .,:-m^

Splp

z

wv-.:....: •

/

'm. --mmm

,n-;.:£,

220180 -

140-

100-

i-f i:|iii;|
60-

/percent of conpanies
lyeriBS (percent)

32. Vendor

IMWSI&

/-Ml
S
•
I A
/
iiall/

Igg
1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

SI81

71

72

73

74

75

100-

A

75- ,

^^^

50- 25-

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

IICII

APRIL 1988




21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B l

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
Nov

iu;y

550-

| Consumption and Trade |

500 -

§7. Manufacturing and trade sales
in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

450400350300 250 200-

56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars

(bil. dol.)

[cxcl

X

150-

\

75. Industrial production, consumer goods
(index: If77^= 100)

140 120-

59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (bit. dot)
10080-

60-

-—'

54. Sales of retail stores in eurrent dollars (bil. dot)

^ r ^
160-

I\ A

140120100-

/
^^r+*^***^
*~^~~*^

55. Personal con^i!#tion expenditures,
automobiles, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

U,CtC[

r**\/sA

fArf

F

j T ^

80-

\

-

60-

• •••••

58. Index of consumer sentiment (1st Q 1966=100)

110 —
10090-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

30

81

82

83

84

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.

2
2



APRIL 1988

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Dec.

Nov.

Mar.

P

• 1 Formation of Business Ifttsipises j

Nov.

T

jan
P

July
7

160-

. ^ |§J§

140 -

120100-

111 M business

index: 1967-100) M J

70605040-

30 -

4540-

Business Investment Commitments

35-

:RU

3025-

20-

15-

10. Contracts and orders for
In current d d t W

40353025-

20-

15-

1 0 -J

1101009080706050-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

ItCII

APRIL 1988




23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
\kc

Nov

Jan. July

War

T

I

P

P

T

July
P

[Business Investment Commitments—Co^)..

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (bil. dol.)

11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
^te
Q (bil. dol.)

100. Expenditures m 1982 dollars for new plant and equipment,
Q ( a n n . y j ^ | (krf.) [ c L ^
I Business Investment Expenditures)

61. Expenditures in current dollars for new plant and
equipment, ^ f n n . rate, bil. dol.)

69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
(ann. rate, bil. <K}': [cJ7

76: Industrial production, business equipment

i :

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

1977=100)

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

24



APRIL 1988

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Dec.

Nov.

Nov.

Jan. July

Mar.

P

T

P

T

iuiy

Nov.

P

T

550-1
500450400350300250-

200-

150-

100

J

^ r i | i l l r # i i | | ^ M rpisfmfenti

2.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.8-

200 180160140120100- ,
80-

60-

240220200180 160140120100 1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

ItCII

APRIL 1988




25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

Chart B 5 . Inventories a n d Inventory I n v e s t m e n t

| Inventory Investment]
30. Change in business i n v i i i t e in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rat<vSil. d o l f />./;

36. Change in manufacturing arid trade inventories on hand and on
r in 19S2 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.; moving avg.-4-term1)

in manufactur{#;li*^rade inventories

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

26



APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
Dec.
P

Jan. .iu!y July
F T P

Nov
i

Nov.
T

[ Inventories on Hand and on Order
im andl^lfwentories in 1982ddlaretbWSol.) U H

Manufacturing and trade inventories

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

ItCII

APRIL 1988




27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits

, 98. Change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermediate materials
(percent; MCD.moving avg.~&i$m)

[ Sensitive Commodity Prices |

S9. Change in sensitive materials prices jftffi&nt; moving avg.—4-term1)

23. Spot market prk$% raw industrial mater i j ^ | i y l e x : 1967=100)

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q

16. Corporate profits afto^fexin £|»ripRloliars, Q

(aim. rate,fail,doi.) f p X l ^ . ^

~r£z"f£r

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
2
Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

28



APRIL 1988 I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Jan. July
P

T

July

Nov.

P

T

[Profitss$ fttflt

280240200160120-

80-

40 J

141210864-

753-

102100989694500400-

300-

200-

100-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

ItCII

APRIL 1988




29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued

]Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share!

63. Unit labor H ^ business sector, Q
(index; ltH-100)

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product
in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations, Q (dollars)

\IM
fijWft

$2. Labor cost per Sijphfutput, manufacturing

:^&i
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income,

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30



APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit
'my

i;jiy

Nov.

F T

p

T

Jan,

105. Money simply Ml in 1982 dollars (bit dol.)

. '-lift
o s s n a t r o n a •duct to money supi
ii
.;:••. : ; 1 | H
a

i

i

•••'••••

• . • - •

:

••'••

**S

- • IU
•J-- ; v : i l

:••

r:

••

>:

• - • • •

5 | -:

7.5 7.06.5«
6.05.55.01.50 1.451.401.351.301.251.20-

IS

8

: •*-••

1 !

8Spl

M2 (ratio).

,
1962 63

•• •
64

•
65

•
66

.
67

•

68

69

, | | f l 70

71

ffffll
72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 .

licit

APRIL 1988




31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Dec Nov.
P
T

Credit Flows

Jan. July

Nov
P

P

I

July
P

Nov.
T

33. Nf|§|nge in mortgage ^ § | byfinancialinstitutions
J§
i insurance c o m p a i ^ ^ i i . rate, bii. doi.)
——
.StSSi
§|§if

(ann. rate, oil. doi.;

i»-*«•»-«» [in

credit (ann. rate, bil. doi.;

m * kA ra

and consumer! credt jbtstanding (ann. rate, percen

110. Funds raised by private

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75 76

77 78 79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

32



APRIL 1988

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Dec

Nov.

Nov

T

P

Jan. July

Mar.

P

T

P

I

July
P

Nov.
T

bities of business ialfures

100-

200-

300400-

600-

8001000-

[12J

15002000300040005000-

39. Percent of consumer

6000-

1.61.82.02.2-

Ml

2.42.62.8-7-

-5-4-3- ?-

nr

-10+ 1-

765-

«re F e d i i l Reserve (b»J.

43210-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

APRIL 1988




33

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

Chart B7. Money and C r e d i t — C o n t i n u e d

1 Interest Rates]

114. Discount rate on
(percent^ |c,

US. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
V; (percent) ] L g , l | j f
X

US. Yield on long-term Treasury binds

Secondary market yieli|^FHA mortgages (percent)

j

.Yield on municinal bonds. 20-bond nim&m

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.

34



APRIL 1988

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and C r e d i t — C o n t i n u e d

nterest Rates—Con.
. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

loans, 0 (percent)

|OuMaiidingD§|t
outstanding in 1982 dollars
"•

v

...•••••>•

installment c r e c i ^ i t i i n g (bit do!.)

credit outstanding to personal income

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

ItCII

APRIL 1988




35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
Nov.
P

P T

F

T

950. El|j||leacfing indicator c ^ p t s 1 (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. < § | — 4 §

Percent rising
100 T

50-

|i>mponent$(6-fno
100 T

50-

oneats (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. spanll~)

|1 9

50-

961. ft*«a?e weekly hours of
acturing inckKtriel

ion or nonsupervisory work
span—, 1-mo. span—4

50-

50-

rai payrolls, 172-136 i

yees on private
span—, 1

100-1

50-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.

36



APRIL 1988

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
in. July
P T

July N o v .
P
T

100-

50-

0-

80706050403020-

100-

50-

0-

100-

50-

0-

100-

m

JUflUffl
50-

9080706050401962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

ItCII

APRIL 1988




37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

|

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued

P

T

R

Actual
Anticipated

| Percent rising]

Actual
Anticipated

I Percent risgig |

970. Expenditures for new plant and

eminent, piiitrtes (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures

974. Number of employees, manufactunng and trade

(4-Q span)1

70-f

f

6050-

40-*

975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

60-

;^ •
^>i •*

50-

40-

971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)

1

976. Selling pnc es,

maniifacturing

(4-Q span)1

90-

p/

\ • • ••• • jf***

100-.

80-

9080-

70. • • • .

_A|

60-

•

7060-

50-

; ( "&**1
972. Net pr QH$, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)

1

100-

•••• •••• •*••

90-

70-

80-

60-

70-

50-

60-

978. Selling prices, retaiHrade (4-Q span)

1976 77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87 1988

1976 77

78

79 80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87 1988

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

38



APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C3. Rates of Change
P

1-month spans ——
3-month spans —

Oc. Composite index of six lagging indicators

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index— Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.
Walues of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.

ItCII

APRIL 1988




39

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income
Dec Nov.

L
U
200. Gross raiiiiai product in curreif$$ats, Q (arm. rate, bil. doL)

223. Personal income in curifiHollars
(arm. rate, ML dol.)

V

224. Disposable personal income in current
^ f e
(arm. rate, ML dol.)

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q

inal
213. F sates in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. doL);;:'

•^ %

-:*u= -

^*~~*

UILW

"' ^

^-

• • • •»!»»'

225. Disposable f sonal^f i ^ i n 1982
t
dollars, Q ( #i. rate||

ill*)

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, thous. dol.)

rer capita disposable personal income i n }
1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, 1

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.

40



APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Ian July

Juiy

Nov.

rate, billion dollars (current)]
Personal consumption expenditures—

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

m

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

320030002800260024002200200018001600-

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81.

BCII

APRIL 1988




41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND P R O D U C T — C o n t i n u e d

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Mr
P

<dv

JJU

I

N.
T

P

Gross private domestic investment—

j f t t n u a l rate,faiondebars (1982)1

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

42



APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Nov.

Mar

Jan. July
P

July

Nov.

T

P

I

80

81

Government purchases of goods and

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

l » l J ) APRIL 1988



43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A5. Foreign Trade

p;if ;gtpSp.

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

44



APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

C h a r t A 6 . National I n c o m e and Its C o m p o n e n t s
Dec. Nov
P
T

Jan, July
P

Juiy

Nov.

T

P

T

80

81

Rental income of persons
consumption adjustment,

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

APRIL 1988



45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A7. Saving

Annual rate, billion dollars (current) j

298. Government surplus or deficit, Q

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.

46



APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income

65-

goods .and services, Q

151

265. Federt&ier^^
10-

248. Nonresidential fixed investme

0III!

247. C h p i i i ^

ss-wm

Met exports of goods and serfjjes, Q I f *

il^rcent of ifaiionil

70-

65

Corporate
and capital

J

tax with inventory valuation m
10-

283.

^^s^i^i^^g^^^
and capital consumption adjustments, Q

289, Net interest, Q

285. Rental fnedie•
1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

APRIL 1988




47

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart B l . Price Movements
Jan. July
P T
sip-.

Hi

'':•:• U S

310, Implicit |

July
P

Jan. July
P T

Nov.
T

mm

Ihcte-1982-10 01

mWmm

.^^S -

July
P

Nov.
I

310c. hnpiirit prir. H^tgrfarj i l l JWcwt change at annual rate I
national product: H O st

P*^-—

:P
311FHedgross

i n

1976 77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87 1988

1976 77

78

79 80

•

I

B

81

f

g

f

• • • • • v : •••• • - ; • • ; • : - • • • • •

82 83

84

85

86

87 1988

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.

48



APRIL 1988

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
Jan. July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

81

82

hourly earnings of
ate nonagricultural payrol

Average hourly compe
wfimti tasiiiss

1962 63

64 65

66

67 68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75 76

77 78 79

80

83

84

85 86

87

88 1989

1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.

ItCII

APRIL 1988




49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued

' a^es

on

'* Change in average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private aonagricuteiraE payrolls1—

'

ercen

g

'

&

340c. Current-dollar earnings

nru

htfcto*

* ...

A

A

,,

+ 5-

1-month spans2
V

6-month spans (ann. rate)

341c. Real earnings

-5-

-10 J

Change in average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—
345c. Current-dollar compensation

t

, 4-quarter spans

——1-quarter spans (ann. rate)

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions—

348. Average first-year changes, Q (ann. rate)

349. Average changes over life of
1 Index: 1977 = 1001
120-

! Productivity |

@
110-

358. Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarm business sector, 0

.
.^a,

...

v^*""'"

100-

^***i

90-

^—&

^*'"^^

—^370. Output per hou^ ^persons,
business s e c t o r ^ -

80-

1 Percent change]

370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q
, — 1-quarter spas (ana, *nfc>

+ 10n

- 5-

1962 63

64

65

68

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable
with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.

50



APRIL 1988 I

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force a n d Major C o m p o n e n t s

441. Civilian labor force (millions)

442. Civilian employment (millions)

Civilian labor force participation rates f p e n t ) - -

45^ ^

$ 2Q

years and over

453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age

452. Females 20 years and over
Number unemployed (millions)—
37. Persons unemployed

445. Females 20 years arw over

446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age

447. Number gpeftiptoyed, full-time workers (miWyis)

. lumber of persons enjoyed p^t %m for economic
reasons (millions)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

?4

75

76

77

''8

7C

i

BO

85

8V

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

APRIL 1988




51

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
£)

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures
Nov

p

i

ian

Ma-

P

P

T

iulv
I

I'JIV

P

Nov
T

| Annual rate, billion dollars (current)]

502. Federal Government expenditures, Q

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

52



APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I£ ) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Dec.
P

Nov.
T

Nov.

Jan July

Mar.

P

T

P

T

July

Nov.

P

T
40353025-

20-

15-

22 T
201816141210-

240-i
220200180160140120100-

141210-

6-

4-

2

1962 63

64 65

66

67 68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75 76

77

78 79

80

81

82

83 84

85

86

87

J

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

IICID

APRIL 1988




53

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Dcr.

J a n . iiiiy

Nov.

H

T

p

i

July
p

Nov.
T
220-1

|Intermediate and final Measures of Defpse Activity]

200180160-

557. Industrial prodiction, defense and space equipment
(index:

14012010042-

"V

38-

2

3430-

**— ^y

26-

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense pro

22-

18-

14-

180160140120100-

603430^
262218-

5S0. Defense Department net outlays,
assistance (biL dol.)

10-

1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .

54



APRIL 1988

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Dec.
P

•

;r

:

!

, W : •:•. :•, .:: , .../.- ;.; :;. ; ;.

Nov

Nov
T

Mar
P

. : | j J S j ,:;:••. '

T

' 1 1 1 1 1 1

llntermeiatrafld final:/;MeasMrfs: ofrp^^^p Activity—COT\;-|. |
2.0-j

1.81.6y ^

1.4 -

1.21.0-

3.53.0-

W:

2.5-

2.0-

1.5-

1.0-

400 350300250-

200-

150-

100

-

J

50

109-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .

l»fj)

APRIL 1988




55

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Chart E l . Merchandise Trade
Dec. Nov.
P

Nov.

T

Jan. July

July

P T

Mar.

P

P

T

Nov.
T

JiiSi
in lim

Z/mBml

604. Exports of domestic
(bildol)
]
Exports of nonelectrical n^Mnery

12

614. Imports of pe
products (bil.

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 92.

56



APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
J] I

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
Jan. July
P

T

July

Nov.

P

T

750 650550450-

{^^

350-

250-

150-

J

50
650550450-

350-

250 -

150-

50140 -

100-

80-

60-

40-

20-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

ItCII

APRIL 1988




57

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart Fl. Industrial Production
Nv
o

Jan. July

P T

Industrial production—

1976 77

78

79

80

; 1977=1001

•mm

[index: 1977=100]
Industrial production—

81

82

83

84

85

86

87 1988

1976 77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87 1988

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.

58



APRIL 1988

licit

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices

Chart F3. Stock Prices
Jan. Julv
P

T

July

Nov.

P

T

[ Percent jrfiange at annual rate |

100 -J

1976 77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87 1988

1976 77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87 1988

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

BCII

APRIL 1988




59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

[ Q

Year
and
month

910. Index of
eleven leading
indicators (series
1, 5, 8, 19, 20,
29, 32, 36, 99,
106, 111)1

(1967 = 100)

920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51,57)

(1967=100)

930. Index of
six lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)

(1967 = 100)

COMPOSITE INDEXES

940. Ratio,

Leading indicator subgroups

coincident index
to lagging index2

914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)2

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)2

(1967 = 100)

916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)

917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104, 106,
111)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

3

C)

1986
January
February
March

174.1
175.0
176.4

162.9
163.4
162.9

140.5
141.1
142.3

115.9

115.8
114.5

108.9
110.2
109.9

103.3
103.3
103.5

117.3
119.0
119.8

142.2
140.3
140.0

April
May
June

178.1
178.5
178.3

165.6
164.3
163.7

140.5
141.4
141.6

117.9
116.2
115.6

110.4
109.5
109.6

103.8
103.5
103.0

119.9
119.7
120.4

140.3
142.4
142.6

July
August
September

179.9
180.3
179.9

164.4
164.8
165.8

141.8
142.2
141.6

115.9
115.9
117.1

109.8
108.8
108.9

103.3
102.9
102.8

120.0
120.4
118.9

144.9
145.6
145.5

October
November
December

181.2
182.7
186.7

165.4
165.8
167.4

143.7
143.4
142.4

115.1
115.6
117.6

108.4
108.6
111.0

102.8
103.6
104.9

117.8
117.4
117.9

147.3
146.8
H>149.2

185.5
186.0
187.6

165.6
168.2
168.0

144.6
142.1
141.3

114.5
118.4
118.9

108.9
(NA)

104.4
104.6
105.3

119.3
120.8
121.5

148.9
147.0
145.4

April
May
June

rl87.6
rl88.7
190.7

168.0
167.6
168.0

141.8
rl42.0
rl42.6

118.5
rll8.0
rll7.8

rlO5.3
106.0
rlO6.7

121.3
121.3
122.9

rl44.5
144.1
rl45.8

July
August
September

rl91.1
rl92.0
rl92.4

169.4
170.0
170.1

rl41.9
rl4i.6
rl43.1

rll9.4
rl20.1
rll8.9

rlO7.1
106.4
106.6

124.2
[H)126.2
125.3

144.6
rl44.3
ri45.6

October
November
December

rl92.4
rl90.0
rl90.6

172.5
172.0
rl73.4

rl42.5
rl43.3
rl43.5

rl21.1
rl20.0
rl20.8

106.9
107.0
rlO7.5

rl22.7
rl20.0
(NA)

147.0
rl46.7
rl46.5

rl89.2
191.7
[H>M9 3.3

rl73.0
174.0
0) 174.5

rl43.6
144.3
[H)6144.9

rl2O.5
rl2O.6
pl20.4

rlO6.8
rlO6.5
plO6.9

1987
January
February
March

1988
January
February
March

5

rl44.6
pl48.1
(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement.

Current high values are indicated by [ H ) ; for series that move counter to movement:

in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [R). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the bad
of this issue. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
1
Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 940 (130.0) in January 1984, series 914 (111.5) in February 1984, and
series 915 (107.9) in April 1984. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the March 1987 issue.
^Excludes series
5
6
36 and 111, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 77 and 95, for
which data are not available.
2

60




APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q

Minor Economic
Process

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Timing Class

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

L, C, L

L, L, L

1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing

L, CTL

L, Lg, U

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing

5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs1

(Hours)

(Hours)

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

(Thous.)

60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed

(Ratio)

U.C.C

L, Lg, U

46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers

(1967 = 100)

48. Employee hours in
nonagricultural establishments

(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)

1986
January
February
March

40.8
40.6
40.7

3.5
3.4
3.4

375
384
393

0.519
0.484
0.486

137
137
136

184.62
184.05
134.41

April
May
June

40.7
40.7
40.6

3.4
3.5
3.4

374
378
378

0.487
0.476
0.504

137
135
143

184.84
184.90
184.64

July
August
September

40.6
40.8
40.8

3.5
3.5
3.5

370
379
369

0.492
0.506
0.502

137
138
140

184.97
185.55
185.84

October
November
December

40.7
40.8
40.8

3.5
3.5
3.6

343
342
356

0.503
0.518
0.518

139
143
138

186.20
186.86
186.87

January
February
March

40.9
41.1
40.9

3.6
3.6
3.6

359
361
341

0.516
0.528
0.569

138
140
149

187.64
188.94
188.71

April
May
June

40.6
41.0
41.0

3.5
3.8
3.7

324
326
327

0.591
0.593
0.623

150
151
153

187.72
189.69
189.41

July
August
September

41.0
41.0
40.6

3.8
3.8
3.6

327
297
286

0.636
0.652
0.667

155
159
159

189.97
190.78
187.57

October
November
December

0)41.3
41.2
41.0

0)4.0
3.9
3.8

0)284
293
312

0.672
0.680
0.661

162

0>162
155

192.24
192.40
192.63

r41.2
r41.0
p40.9

3.9
r3.7
p3.7

351
321
304

0)pO.696

153
156
pl59

0)rl94.57
pl94.01

1987

1988
January
February
March

0.646
0.669

rl93.00

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

x

APRIL 1988



61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q j

Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Employment—Continued

Timing Class

Year
and
month

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

U, C, C

42. Number
of persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities

(Thous.)

C, C, C

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls

(Thous.)

L, C, U

40. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
goodsproducing
industries
(Thous.)

Comprehensive Unemployment

U, Lg, U

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age

(Percent)

L, Lg, U

37. Number of
persons unemployed

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

43. Unemployment rate

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programsx

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Thous.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

(Weeks)

Lg, Lg, Lg

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Percent)

1986
January
February
March

105,597
105,427
105,640

98,776
98,914
99,013

24,821
24,768
24,711

59.87
59.61
59.74

7,847
8,427
8,330

6.7
7.2
7.1

2.8
2.8
2.8

15.0
15.4
14.6

1.8
2.0
1.9

April
May
June

105,793
105,938
106,495

99,252
99,389
99,323

24,770
24,708
24,628

59.74
59.73
60.02

8,373
8,444
8,441

7.1
7.2
7.1

2.8
2.8
2.8

14.6
14.7
15.1

1.8
1.9
1.9

July
August
September

106,710
106,929
106,883

99,601
99,772
100,039

24,628
24,639
24,620

60.05
60.10
60.05

8,278
8,115
8,298

7.0
6.9
7.0

2.8
2.8
2.8

15.2
15.5
15.4

1.9
1.9
2.0

October
November
December

107,052
107,224
107,504

100,209
100,415
100,567

24,611
24,630
24,630

60.07
60.15
60.20

8,230
8,214
7,919

6.9
6.9
6.7

2.7
2.7
2.6

15.2
15.0
15.0

1.9
1.9
1.9

January
February
March

107,840
108,119
108,218

100,919
101,150
101,329

24,708
24,743
24,749

60.30
60.43
60.43

7,964
7,886
7,791

6.7
6.6
6.5

2.6
2.6
2.6

15.0
14.8
14.9

1.8
1.8
1.7

April
May
June

108,556
109,065
109,108

101,598
101,708
101,818

24,759
24,752
24,761

60.57
60.79
60.72

7,557
7,573
7,308

6.3
6.3
6.1

2.5
2.4
2.4

14.8
14.8
14.7

1.7
1.7
1 .7

July
August
September

109,427
109,907
109,688

102,126
102,275
102,434

24,850
24,886
24,917

60.84
61.02
60.87

7,251
7,256
7,091

6.0
6.0
5.9

2.3
2.3
2 2

14.2
14.3
14.2

1.5
1.6
1.6

October
November
December

109,961
110,332
110,529

102,983
103,285
103,612

25,064
25,169
25,259

61.00
61.11
61.19

7,177
7,090
6,978

6.0
5.9
5.8

2.1
2.1

14.1
14.0
14.2

1.5
1.5
1.5

110,836
E>111,182
110,899

rlO3,827

r25,205
r25,342
E>p25,426

61.33

7,046

5.8

14.4

[H>61.44
61.23

6,938

5.7
E>5.6

1.4
1.4

1987

E)2.1

1988
January
February
March

rlO4,344
[H)pl04,606

H)6,801

2.3
2.3
2.2

14.4
E>13.7

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
1
I)ata exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

62




APRIL 1988

H>1.4

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

PRODUCTION AND INCOME

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Industrial Production

Comprehensive Output and Income

C, C, C

50. Gross national product
in 1982 dollars

C, C, C

Personal income
223. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

52. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, C, C

51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C C, C

53. Wages and
salaries in 1982
dollars, mining,
mfg., and construction

C, C, C

47. Index of
industrial
production

C, C, C

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

C L, L

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

C, C, C

49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1986
January
February
March

3,698.8

3,444.4
3,463.8
3,482.1

3,021.4
3,051.8
3,073.3

2,576.6
2,604.2
2,622.7

540.1
539.2
542.8

126.4
125.5
123.9

129.8
128.9
127.4

128.6
128.2
127.3

1,589.5

April
May
June

3,704^7

3,525.8
3,525.9
3,528.1

3,111.9
3,103.8
3,094.8

2,660.2
2,650.4
2,641.8

544.5
544.1
539.7

124.7
124.3
124.1

128.5
127.7
126.9

128.9
129.7
130.2

1,594.4

July
August
September

3,718.0

3,540.3
3,552.9
3,567.5

3,102.8
3,103.0
3,104.9

2,642.4
2,647.4
2,648.8

540.3
542.0
540.0

124.8
124.9
124.5

128.1
127.9
128.4

130.6
131.1
130.3

1,593*7

October
November
December

3,731.5

3,577.5
3,590.3
3,613.0

3,108.2
3,116.6
3,130.8

2,651.5
2,659.7
2,673.3

|H> 5 4 5 . 1
541.6
540.3

125.3
125.7
126.8

128.6
129.0
129.7

131.2
131.7
133.4

1,602.6

January
February
March

3,772.2

3,631.5
3,671.2
3,683.4

3,117.2
3,143.2
3,137.5

2,660.3
2,685.5
2,682.4

540.0
538.7
537.6

126.2
127.1
127.4

129.3
130.8
131.5

132.7
132.9
133.7

1,626.0

April
May
June

3,795.3

3,701.9
3,708.5
3,715.3

3,139.9
3,132.2
3,127.4

2,684.1
2,671.5
2,671.4

534.1
535.0
534.1

127.4
128.2
129.1

130.9
131.4
132.0

134.6
135.7
136.9

1,638.2

July
August
September

3,835.9

3,739.2
3,760.6
3,783.2

3,144.8
3,149.6
3,150.0

2,686.3
2,693.0
2,694.6

532.8
535.3
536.7

130.6
131.2
131.0

133.5
133.8
133.7

138.5
138.8
138.6

1,666.8

October
November
December

3,880.8

3,854.4
3,839.8
3,869.1

3,198.7
3,178.6
3,205.6

2,741.1
2,722.7
2,748.4

539.3
541.4
541.5

132.5
133.2
rl33.9

136.8
136.7
rl37.3

138.1
139.6

rl41.3

r3,872.5
r3,894.7
[H>p3,924.3

r3,195.1
r3,213.4

E>p3,221.9

r2,728.7
r2,744.6
H>p2,751.0

r540.2
r541.2
p544.7

rl34.4
134.4
[H>pl34.6

rl37.7
137.9
[H>pl38.3

rl41.9
rl41.8
[H>pl41.9

1987

1,689.*7

1988
January
February
March

[H>p3,902.6

B)pl,708.9

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.

APRIL 1988



63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

•

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

•

PRODUCTION AND

1 * 1

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

INCOME—Continued

Minor Economic
Capacity Utilization

Process

Timing Class

L, C, U

82. Capacity
utilization rate,
manufacturing

Orders and Deliveries

L, C, U

84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materials

Year

L, L, L

Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars

and

L, L, L

7. Constant
(1982) dollars

month

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

L, L, L

8. Manufacturers' new
orders in 1982
dollars, consumer goods
and materials

25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

I Lg, U

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries1 @
(Percent
reporting)

(Bil. dol.)

1986

80.7
80.2
79.2

80.5
79.8
78.5

99.02
101.26
100.94

92.63
94.73
94.33

81.63
80.74
79.16

0.63
2.18
3.23

363.66
365.84
369.06

46
48
50

79.9
79.6
79.3

78.7
78.3
78.0

98.18
97.30
97.90

91.58
90.68
91.15

81.07
78.92
80.38

-2.76
-1.32
-1.70

366.30
364.98
363.28

50
55
50

79.7
79.6
79.4

78.1
77.9
77.7

99.68
96.30
102.95

92.72
89.50
95.59

79.18
80.04
82.66

-0.03
-1.88
2.29

363.24
361.36
363.55

54
51
52

79.5
79.6
80.2

77.9
78.5
79.1

99.98
99.98
105.68

92.48
92.32
97.58

81.25
79.54
85.34

-1.06
-0.03
-0.71

362.60
362.57
361.86

54
56
56

79.6
80.0
80.3

78.7
78.7
78.7

r96.91
rlO2.O7
rlO5.96

r89.32
r94.07
r97.48

r80.85
r84.53
r85.70

r-2.34
r-1.18
rl.70

r359.51
r358.33
r360.03

55
52
55

June

80.2
80.4
80.8

79.1
79.3
79.8

rlO5.72
106.99
109.18

r97.16
98.16
100.07

r83.97
83.78
85.43

r2.97
4.52
4.70

363.00
367.51
372.22

57
60
57

July
August
September

81.5
81.5
81.3

80.6
81.1
81.2

109.21
106.68
109.34

99.83
97.16
99.04

84.16
83.69
85.71

6.18
2.54
0.91

378.40
380.94
381.85

62
60
69

82.0
82.2
r82.6

82.1
82.9

111.10
110.95

100.45
99.95

[H>r83.6

E)115.62

0)103.70

85.96
r85.89
[H)86.60

2.84
2.57
2.59

384.70
387.27
389.86

70
66
71

r83.0
r82.4

rll4.20
rll4.26
P114.32

rlO1.96
rlO1.93
plO1.62

r84.85
r86.19
p86.12

r5.25
r3.81
p0.99

r395.11

r398.92
H)p399.91

68
66
69

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May

October
November
December

1988
January
February
March

[H>r82.8
r82.6
p82.5

p82.4

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 2 1 .
lr

rhe following series reached their high values before 1986:

64



id series 32 (72) in March 1984.

APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic

C, C, C

Timing Class

C, C T C

Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Constant
(1982) dollars

56. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)
1986

Revised

(Mil. dol.)
2

C, L, C

75. Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods

(1977 = 100)

C L, U

ness Enterprises

U, L, U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

(2)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

Formation of Busi-

Consumption and Trade

Process

Year
and
month

fm
t i l

1 CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued

59. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

L, C, C

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

58. Index of
consumer
sentiment1 (u)

L, L, L

12. Index of
net business
formation

(1st Q
1966 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

(2)

January
February
March

424,255
419,113
415,757

410,518
410,199
408,575

123.6
122.9
121.4

117,524
116,599
116,184

108,617
108,768
109,298

122*4

95.6
95.9
95.1

119.3
120.8
121.5

57,580
58,799
58,365

April
May
June

421,251
417,160
422,098

417,819
412,006
413,946

123.8
123.8
123.7

116,905
118,259
118,314

110,601
111,355
111,197

126.2

96.2
94.8
99.3

122.4
120.7
120.3

58,937
58,257
57,558

July
August
September

420,678
423,115
436,761

417,523
419,488
430,295

124.5
125.0
123.6

118,821
120,308
127,115

111,569
112,543
0)118,247

H>15:L3

97.7
94.9
91.9

120.7
119.3
120.4

58,002
56,541
58,002

October
November
December

428,495
429,396
442,876

422,639
422,723
431,993

124.8
125.0
126.6

120,778
120,470
126,011

112,666
112,274
116,677

141.3

95.6
91.4
89.1

119.7
118.3
121.9

57,410
56,924
E>65,318

January
February
March

425,002
442,408
445,574

416,920
r433,196
r431,072

125.5
126.4
126.7

117,246
rl23,292
rl24,105

107,961
rll3,008
rll3,131

117.5

90.4
90.2
90.8

118.1
120.5
122.0

55,069
58,880
60,193

April
May
June

445,252
447,215
453,701

429,733
428,743
430,800

125.5
127.3
127.2

124,744
124,775
126,511

113,301
112,715
113,871

125.1

92.8
91.1
91.5

120.7
119.3
119.4

57,715
56,624
57,502

July
August
September

454,330
460,047
464,984

433,890
436,811
[0)439,591

128.9
129.4
127.7

127,230
129,981
127,815

114,415
116,470
114,121

148.3

93.7
94.4
93.6

119.5
120.6
121.5

57,483
57,951
57,066

October
November
December

464,947
462,975
E>458,303

438,814
435,121
436,886

129.0
129.4
rl29.8

126,808
127,248
128,615

112,919
113,109
114,426

129.8

89.3
83.1
86.8

120.7
122.4
rl21.7

55,337
57,358
r53,453

465,730
p468,302
(NA)

r437,414
p438,970
(NA)

rl31.4
rl31.9
H>pl31.9

rl28,769
rl29,579
E)pl30,660

rll4,461
rll5,489
pll5,833

pl35.9

90.8
91.6
94.6

H>rl23.2
rl22.8
pi22.4

p54,913
(NA)

1987

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 22, and 23.
1
2

Series 58 reached its high value (101.0) in March 1984.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

APRIL 1988




65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ J

Minor Economic
Process

Business Investment Commitments

Timing Class

L, L, L

L, L, L

10. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

L, L,L

Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries

Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

20. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, C, U

9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings1 2

27. Constant
(1982) dollars

24. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

Square feet of
floor space

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

C Lg, Lg

U, Lg, U

Square meters of
floor space3

(Millions)

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations 2

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations2

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

1986
January
February
March

29.45
32.82
30.91

30.95
36.40
33.36

24.96
27.66
26.61

26.92
31.78
29.53

72.89
82.65
73.01

6.77
7.68
6.78

23.39

April
May
June

30.13
29.86
30.53

32.28
32.74
33.78

25.36
25.43
25.85

28.05
28.80
29.64

82.17
78.06
76.57

7.63
7.25
7.11

19.99

July
August
September

30.97
29.83
31.86

34.68
33.60
34.59

26.40
25.34
27.16

30.63
29.63
30.44

73.43
76.48
76.51

6.82
7.10
7.11

20.20

October
November
December

32.00
31.99
34.29

34.83
35.23
37.59

27.54
27.27
29.14

30.87
31.03
33.00

73.54
83.00
76.45

6.83
7.71
7.10

22! 10

January
February
March

r31.27
r31.93
r32.76

r33.62
r34.79
r35.90

r26.77
r27.O4
r27.72

r29.63
r30.48
r31.49

80.75
73.72
77.18

7.50
6.85
7.17

2K44

April
May
June

r32.70
34.17
35.33

r35.87
37.70
38.40

r28.12
30.03
29.99

r31.85
34.07
33.72

78.14
76.74
84.28

7.26
7.13
7.83

32.26

July
August
September

36.77
34.69
34.66

40.63
38.25
38.28

31.98
29.54
29.75

36.47
33.79
34.03

84.76
84.70
85.96

7.87
7.87
7.99

r29.81

October
November
December

35.23
34.60
38.81

r39.12
r37.53
r41.76

30.42
30.08
33.88

34.94
33.64
37.49

82.21
75.90
84.37

7.64
7.05
7.84

p33.98

r38.60
H)r38.83
p37.79

[H)r43.45
r42.76
p41.57

H)r34.79
r33.75
p33.31

H>r40.17
r38.39
p37.72

69.43
91.89
73.91

6.45
8.54
6.87

(NA)

92^22

85.77

80.71

69.72

1987

69.17

74.*64

r74.71

p76.81

1988
January
February
March

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 2 The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 9 (93.19 square feet and 8.66
square meters) in September 1985, series 11 (34.12) in 2d quarter 1984, and series 97 (99.88) in 2d quarter 1985. Converted to metric
units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

66




APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
Q |

PROCESS

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

Minor Economic

Residential Construction
Business Investment Expenditures

Process

Timing Class

C Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Year
and

61. Current
dollars

100. Constant
(1982) dollars

month

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C Lg, Lg

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and
business
construction
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C Lg, U

Commitments and Investment

C Lg, C

76. Index of
industrial production, business equipment

(1977 = 100)

Lg, Lg, Lg

C Lg, C

28. New private housing
units started1

Gross private nonresidential
fixed investment in 1982 dollars
86. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures x

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L,L, L

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

L, L, L

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits x
(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

89. Gross private residential
fixed investment
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1986

380.04

387*:L3

381.52
394.74
394.11

142.1
141.3
139.2

453.2

145.4

307*8

1,938
1,869
1,873

147.4
141.1
144.3

185.9

376.21

379*25

395.29
383.39
388.43

139.6
138.6
137.2

441.0

128.4

312 *6

1,947
1,847
1,845

149.4
141.8
143.0

196.5

375.50

376.42

388.27
387.28
386.99

139.4
139.1
139.6

437.7

122*7

315.0

1,789
1,804
1,685

141.8
137.8
134.5

201.i

386.09

386.76

393.82
391.03
412.26

139.4
138.8
139.5

443.2

124.6

318*6

1,683
1,630
1,837

132.7
132.9
148.5

0)202*2

January
February
March

374.23

374.49

r370.84
r386.83
r394.77

138.6
141.7
141.9

426.0

120.4

305.6

1,804
1,809
1,723

131.7
133.7
137.1

198*2

April
May
June

377*.65

376.95

390.24
390.29
399.08

142.1
141.7
144.2

437.9

120*4

317.5

1,635
1,599
1,583

127.4
119.1
121.0

196.8

July
August
September

393.13

r394.54

402.81
409.64
423.70

145.6
145.6
146.3

463.8

127.2

336*6

1,594
1,583
1,679

118.6
119.8
119.8

193.5

October
November
December

[H)409.37

[H)408.88

r415.39
415.48

465.6

129*8

E)r437.33

148.7
148.3
rl49.8

335.8

1,538
1,661
1,399

116.7
117.1
108.5

197.0

r435.30
p435.58
(NA)

rl50.9
rl51.4
[H>pl52.4

rl,382
[H>p488".3

pl28.1

[H>p360.3

100.2
113.4
116.9

p!92.2

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1987

1988
January
February
March

ra422*.75

ra420*52

April
May
June

ra427'o9

ra424.46

rl,514
pi,543

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.

'The following series reached their high values before 1986:
(158.5) in February 1984.

APRIL 1988



series 87 (151.7) in 2d quarter 1985, and series 28 (2,260) and series 29

67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

H

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process

Inventory Investment

Timing Ciass

Year
and
month

NVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

L, L, L

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars l

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L. L, L

L L, L

36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars1
Smoothed2

Actual
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Inventories on Hand and on Order

(Ann. rate,
bi!. dol.)

31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

38. Change in
mfrs." inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order
(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)

70. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

77. Ratio,
mfg. and
trade inventories to
sales in
1982 dollars
(Ratio)

L, Lg, Lg

78. Mfrs.'
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order
(Bil. dol.)

3

Revised3

Revised3

1986

Lg- Lg, Lg

( )

January
February
March

35.3

22.18
15.18
43.63

8.37
12.76
21.74

28.7
-2.4
19.4

-0.23
1.22
-0.45

657.84
657.64
659.26

639.55
640.54
644.56

105.75
105.43
105.21

1.56
1.56
[fi>1.58

229.97
231.18
230.73

April
May
June

28.1

11.26
-39.48
20.98

25.18
14.25
1.36

9.0
-27.1
5.3

-0.96
-1.95
-1.33

660.01
657.76
658.20

646.10
643.87
645.89

105.17
104.87
103.80

1.55
1.56
1.56

229.77
227.82
226.49

July
August
September

6.1

26.09
-24.98
-30.89

0.06
4.95
-1.28

29.9
-4.5
-17.4

-0.90
-1.09
1.42

660.68
660.31
658.87

648.98
647.14
644.01

104.05
103.60
102.74

1.55
1.54
1.50

225.59
224.50
225.92

October
November
December

-14.4

27.23
-22.78
-4.97

-9.74
-9.18
-4.49

29.4
-5.9
-44.4

-0.97
0.12
1.57

661.32
660.82
657.12

646.72
645.45
643.29

102.96
103.96
103.23

1.53
1.53
1.49

224.94
225.07
226.64

January
February
March

r64.33
rl.15
r52.39

r6.01
rl6.18
r29.73

82.8
19.9
34.1

-0.73
r-0.51
r2.55

664.02
665.68
668.52

649.53
649.55
651.82

rlO4.42

47.6

rl04.08
104.59

1.56
1.50
1.51

225.90
r225.39
r227.94

April
May
June

39.0

rl9.74
48.40
33.05

r31.86
r32.30
r36.95

31.3
73.0
44.0

r2.86
0.59
2.46

671.13
677.21
680.88

652.67
655.75
656.98

104.22
104.28
103.48

1.52
1.53
1.53

230.80
231.40
233.86

July
August
September

24.6

35.63
-11.50
22.84

r36.38
29.04
17.36

39.3
12.0
52.4

2.98
1.36
1.99

684.15
685.15
689.51

658.83
657.37
658.31

104.58
105.37
104.77

1.52
1.50
1.50

236.84
238.19
240.18

October
November
December

60.5

66.19
r28.49
r32.33

20.75
r32.51
K0.76

[H>97.6
69.3
77.1

1.89
1.11
3.50

697.65
703.42
709.85

663.80
666.13
669.04

105.91
106.80
107.57

1.51
1.53
1.53

242.07
243.17
246.67

r62.28
pl8.01
(NA)

r41.68

p57.9

p39.29
(NA)

62.1
p9.9
(NA)

H>r4.08
p0.45
(NA)

715.03
[R)p715.85
(NA)

r674.53
(H>p675.57
(NA)

rl08.70
H)plO9.29
(NA)

rl.54
pi.54
(NA)

r250.76
H>P251.21
(NA)

1987

1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
lr
rhe following series reached their high values before 1986: series 50 (S3.4) in 1st quarter 1984, series 36 actual (89.60) in February
1984, and series 36 smoothed (78.81) in May 1984. 2 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the
terminal month of the span. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

Timing Class

Year
and
month

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

L, L, L

98. Change in
producer prices
for sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials1
(Percent)

U, L, L

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
matenals2(u)

(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

L L, L

99. Change in sensitive materials
prices
Smoothed3

Actual

(Percent)

(Percent)

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks (u)

(1941-43 = 10)

Profits and Profit Margins

L, L, L

L, L, L

Corporate profits after tax
16. Current
dollars1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

18. Constant
(1982) dollars1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L,C, L

L, C, L

Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdjA
79. Current
dollars1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

80. Constant
(1982) dollars1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
income1
(Percent)

1986

0.37
-0.92
0.93

236.9
233.3
223.1

0.29
-0.68
-0.99

-0.05
-0.05
-0.28

208.19
219.37
232.33

12CL9

111.9

189.9

182.8

4'.3

1.29
0.82
0.45

219.9
221.3
225.0

0.00
0.50
0.69

-0.51
-0.36

122.3

112.5

180.2

17K3

4*.7

0.12

237.98
238.46
245.30

July
August
September

0.99
-2.14
1.18

227.6
212.0
221.2

0.69
-2.83
1.71

0.51
0.07
-0.31

240.18
245.00
238.27

130.2

119.5

180.3

170*i

4^9

October
November
December

1.17
1.16
-0.18

235.5
243.7
247.5

2.27
1.35
0.38

0.12
1.08
1.56

237.36
245.09
248.61

134.0

122.7

167.1

156.0

5.1

0.35
0.26
0.88

252.8
247.2
246.3

0.76
-0.57
0.19

1.08
0.51
0.16

264.51
280.93
292.47

129.0

116.1

165.9

153.3

4.6

-0.26
2.52
1.78

253.8
272.6
276.4

0.85
IB) 3.00

289.32
289.12
301.38

134.5

120.5

162.6

148.8

4^8

1.00

0.14
0.75
1.48

July
August
September

1.92
1.55
3.38

284.2
288.3
292.4

1.53
0.98
1.58

H>1.73
1.51
1.27

0)329.36
318.66

141 ^9

126.8

172.0

157*7

5.1

October
November
December

2.57
rl.44
r-0.22

0)294.6
292.0
293.1

1.13
r0.26
rO.09

1.30
rl.ll
r0.74

280.16
245.01
240.96

rl45.6

rl29.5

rl73.0

rl57.3

4.*9

0.60

292.5
288.9
292.3

0.17
-0.34
0.85

0.33
rO.07
pO.10

250.48
258.13
265.74

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June

310.09

1988
January
February
March

0.07
1.49

April
May
June

5

297.2

6

264.25

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
1
The following series readied their high values before 1986: series 98 (3.55) in July 1983; series 16 (152.5), series 18 (149.4), and
2
This is a copyrighted series used by
series 22 (6.9) in 1st quarter 1984; and series 79 (192.3) and series 80 (186.6) in 3d quarter 1985.
3
See footnote 2 on page 68.
''See
permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
5
6
footnote 1 on page 70.
Average for April 1 through 26.
Average for April 5, 12, 19, and 26.

I M J I APRIL 1988



69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

| J

Minor Economic
Process

U, L, L

L, L, L

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income 12

15. Profits after
taxes per dollar
of sales, manufacturing corporations

(Percent)

Year
and
month

Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins—Continued

Timing Class

(Cents)

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con mued

L, L, L

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit
labor cost,
nonfarm business sector
(1977 = 100)

L, L, L

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

L, L, L

Corporate net cash flow
34. Current
dollars

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of
unit labor cost,
business sector

35. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1977 = 100)

Lg, Lg, Lg

68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial corporations
(Dollars)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing2
Actual data

(1977 = 100)

Actual data
as a percent
of trend
(Percent)

64. Compensation of employees as a
percent of national income2

(Percent)

1986
January
February
March

7.8

3.7

99.5

364.6

365.8

165.0

0.709

137.3
137.6
139.3

100.1
100.3
101.5

73.3

April
May
June

7.6

4.3

99.3

363.3

363.2

166.2

0.714

137.6
138.1
138.0

100.3
100.7
100.6

72*9

July
August
September

7.3

3.4

99.4

370.9

371.0

167.5

0.717

137.2
137.8
137.8

100.0
100.4
100.4

73." 1

October
November
December

6.7

3.4

98.4

376*7

375.9

169.0

0.720

138.8
137.6
136.4

101.2
100.3
99.4

73*5

January
February
March

6.4

4*5

99.1

378.7

378.6

169.4

0.724

137.4
136.8
136.0

100.1
99.7
99.1

73.0

April
May
June

6*2

4.8

99.4

384.6

384.3

170.2

0.728

135.9
135.7
135.0

99.1
98.9
98.4

73*0

July
August
September

6.5

[H>5.'6

|H>100.2

392.2

391.5

169.8

0.727

133.6
134.5
135.8

97.4
98.0
99.0

72.8

October
November
December

r6.2

p4.3

99.9

[R>r397.9

[H)r397.8

E)r0.735

135.0
135.1
134.5

98.4
98.5
98.0

72.*5

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

rl34.4
rl34.6
pl36.0

r98.0
r98.1
p99.1

(NA)

1987

(H> 171 . 2
*

1988
January
February
March

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
1
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
The following series reached their high values before 1986:
series 81 (8.4) in 3d quarter 1985, series 62 (139.8 actual data and
as percent of trend) in October 1985, and series 64 (73.6) in 4th quarter 1985.

70



APRIL 1988

101.?

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

MONEY AND CREDIT

Money

Timing Class

L, L, L

85. Change
in money
supply Ml

L, C, U

102. Change
in money
supply M21

L, L,L

Velocity of Money

L, L, L

L, L,L

104. Change
in total liquid
assetsx

105. Money
supply Ml in
1982 dollars

106. Money
supply M2 in
1982 dollars

(Percent)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

Year
and
month
(Percent)

(Percent)

I2)

1986

C,C, C

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml1

(Ratio)

Credit Flows

C Lg, C

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M21

(Ratio)

L, L, L

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companiesx
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L,L

112. Net change
in business loans

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised2

C)

r0.26
r0.56
1.41

r0.35
r0.44
0.79

0.69
rO.62
rO.63

r546.8
551.3
562.1

r2,261.7
2,277.7
2,307.9

r6.658

rl.339
1.341
1.338

-23.17
57.40
43.56

67.82
-37.57
-15.70

April
May
June

1.14
1.64
1.47

0.93
0.95
0.94

r0.68
0.70
0.63

569.4
577.7
583.2

2,333.5
2,351.4
2,361.0

6.465

1.342
1.329
1.318

52.58
30.83
(NA)

-64.72
24.78
-9.78

July
August
September

1.44
1.45
1.01

0.95
0.84
0.66

0.78
0.66
0.70

591.5
599.0
603.5

2,383.5
2,399.3
2,408.8

6.277

1.310
1.304
1.300

-0.35
45.86
-22.81

October
November
December

1.09
1.65
0)2.69

0.82
0.60
0.90

0.48
0.52
0.73

609.0
618.0
633.0

2,424.3
2,434.6
2,450.1

6.049

1.293
1.290
1.287

20.66
20.03
83.57

January
February
March

0.83
-0.01
0.40

0.71
0.05
0.18

0.70
0.29
-0.04

633.8
631.0
630.8

2,450.4
2,441.2
2,435.0

5.978

1.284
1.298
1.300

0)135.72
-24.54
-32.38

April
May
June

1.43
0.24
-0.59

0.46
0.06
0.09

0.37
0.68
r0.38

0)637.0
636.4
631.0

2,435.8
2,428.9
2,424.9

5.971

1.300
1.302
1.303

2.14
-7.34
-7.34

July
August
September

0.20
0.39
0.13

0.22
0.40
0.40

rO.O5
r0.51
r0.60

630.7
630.5
629.2

2,424.2
2,423.6
2,425.0

6.065

1.308
1.311
1.313

-55.27
-31.85
22.09

October
November
December

1.16
-0.46
-0.24

r0.48
rO.O7
r0.16

r0.68
rO.27
rO.O3

634.4
629.9
627.3

r2,428.4
r2,423.8
r2,423.6

6.116

rl.332
rl.326
rl.334

37.16
5.46
69.25

January
February
March

1.07
0.09
p0.49

r0.83
rO.72
p0.77

r0.89
pO.75
(NA)

631.9
631.4
p631.3

r2,435.6
r2,449.2
0)p2,455.7

p6.128

rl.324
rl.322
pi.322

-59.82
71.78
p-65,16

April
May
June

3

January
February
March

1987

1988

0.98

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 3 1 , and 32.
lr
rhe following series reached their high values before 1986: series 102 (2.66) in January 1983, series 104 (1.20) in March 1984, series
2
107 (7.035) in 4th quarter 1984, series 108 (1.373) in March 1984, and series 33 (143.70) in September 1984.
See "New Features and
3
Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Average for weeks ended April 5 and 12.

APRIL 1988




71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC

W t

PROCESS
Minor Economic

Credit Difficulties

Credit Flows—Continued

Process

Timing Class

Year

L, L, L

113. Net change
in consumer
installment
credit1

L, L, L

111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding1

and

MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued

L, L, L

110. Funds
raised by private
nonfinancial
borrowers in
credit markets1

L, L, L

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures 1 ©

month

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

Bank Reserves

L, L, L

39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and over1

Interest Rates

L, U, U

L, Lg, U

93. Free
reserves1©

94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve1©

L, Lg, Lg

119. Federal
funds rate 1 ©

C Lg, Lg

114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills 1 ©

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised2

Revised2

75.25
78.84
35.45

12.4
5.3
4.5

411,284

3,238.9
3,252.2
3,278.8

2.27
2.29
2.41

341
213
135

770
884
761

8.14
7.86
7.48

7.04
7.03
6.59

60.43
59.93
51.44

1.7
7.8
3.6

575,340

1,766.8
3,572.8
3,467.6

2.44
2.52
2.53

-92
-38
128

893
876
803

6.99
6.85
6.92

6.06
6.12
6.21

62.69
54.25
73.09

6.8
7.2
3.0

738,552

7,464.6
2,748.4
5,126.7

2.22
2.33
2.24

169
-132
-282

741
872
1,008

6.56
6.17
5.89

5.84
5.57
5.19

75.35
21.72
0.50

8.3
4.6
12.2

777,632

2,870.8
2,170.2
4,326.8

2.25
2.34
2.26

-95
226
542

841
752
827

5.85
6.04
6.91

5.18
5.35
5.49

-10.39
31,74
22.08

7.6
1.7
2.2

378,972

p3,446.6
p2,921.1
p2,622.7

2.43
2.40
2.28

488
655
389

580
556
527

6.43
6.10
6.13

5.45
5.59
5.56

April
May
June

55.44
13.93
79.74

6.3
5.1
8.2

612,328

p2,024.8
p2,872.4
p2 , 7 4 2 . 3

2.36
2.43
2.35

-166
44
414

993
1,035
776

6.37
6.85
6.73

5.76
5.75
5.69

July
August
September

67.61
56.14
57.46

1.2
4.1
10.3

582,660

p2,142.7
pi,907.4
p2,026.2

2.34
2.37
2.35

89
385
-147

672
647
940

6.58
6.73
7.22

5.78
6.00
6.32

October
November
December

47.39
21.59
51.54

9.6
5.9
12.1

p613,780

p3 , 1 5 1 . 6
pi,610.6
p5,512.2

2.66
2.54
2.47

186
298
252

943
625
777

7.29
6.69
6.77

6.40
5.81
5.80

74.83
p63.65
(NA)

1.6
pl0.8
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

213
r737
p-830

1,082
396
pi,752

6.83
6.58
6.58

5.90
5.69
5.69

6.85

"5.91

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1987

January
February
March

1988
January
February
March
April
May
June

3

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 113 (132.08) in September 1985; series 111 (22.7) in June 1984; series 110 (948,376) in 4th quarter 1985; series 14 (829.2) in July 1983; series 39 (1.78) in February 1984; and series 93 (-7,328), series
94 (8,017), series 119 (11.64), and series 114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 3 Average
for weeks ended April 6, 13, and 20. ^Average for weeks ended April 7, 14, and 21.

72




APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process

Interest Rates—Continued

Timing Class

Year
and
month

MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued

Lg, Lg, Lg

116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
corporate
bonds x ©

(Percent)

C Lg, Lg

115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury
bonds1©

(Percent)

U, Lg, Lg

117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond average 1 ®

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Outstand ng Debt

Lg, Lg, Lg

118. Secondary
market yields
on FHA
mortgages1©

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans 1 ©

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks 1 ©

66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

Revised 2

1986

Lg, Lg, Lg

Revised2

101. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)
Revised

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income

2

Revised2

10.33
9.76
8.95

9.51
9.07
8.13

8.08
7.44
7.08

10.78
10.59
9.77

9.29

9.50
9.50
9.10

524,025
530,595
533,549

357,232
354,101
352,793

346,155
348,182
351,738

15.21
15.32
15.32

April
May
June

8.71
9.09
9.39

7.59
8.02
8.23

7.20
7.54
7.87

9.80
10.07
9.98

8.13

8.83
8.50
8.50

538,585
543,579
547,866

347,400
349,465
348,650

348,795
349,465
348,999

15.28
15.42
15.53

July
August
September

9.11
9.03
9.28

7.86
7.72
8.08

7.51
7.21
7.11

10.01
9.80
9.90

7^73

8.16
7.90
7.50

553,090
557,611
563,702

348,621
352,443
350,542

350,725
354,927
352,658

15.62
15.69
15.80

October
November
December

9.29
8.99
8.87

8.04
7.81
7.67

7.08
6.85
6.86

9.80
9.26
9.21

7.28

7.50
7.50
7.50

569,981
571,791
571,833

352,264
353,933
360,897

353,324
354,642
361,983

15.93
15.93
15.83

January
February
March

8.59
8.58
8.68

7.60
7.69
7.62

6.61
6.61
6.66

8.79
8.81
8.94

7^46

7.50
7.50
7.50

570,967
573,612
575,452

[H)385,036
382,991
380,293

[H>383,120
379,199
375,784

15.72
15.62
15.62

April
May
June

9.36
9.95
9.64

8.31
8.79
8.63

7.55
8.00
7.79

10.02
10.61
10.33

8.24

7.75
8.14
8.25

580,072
581,233
587,878

380,471
379,859
379,247

373,377
370,233
368,201

15.67
15.67
15.82

July
August
September

9.70
10.09
10.63

8.70
8.97
9.58

7.72
7.82
8.26

10.38
10.55
11.22

8.20

8.25
8.25
8.70

593,512
598,190
602,978

374,641
371,987
373,828

361,972
358,369
360,490

15.87
15.91
15.94

October
November
December

10.80
10.09
10.22

9.61
8.99
9.12

8.70
7.95
7.96

10.90
10.76
10.63

8.47

9.07
8.78
8.75

606,927
608,726
613,021

376,925
377,380
383,151

362,080
362,169
368,061

15.75
15.85
15.84

9.81
9.43
9.68

8.82
8.41
8.61

7.69
7.49
7.74

10.17
9.86
10.28

8.37

8.75
8.51
8.50

619,258
[H)p624,563
(NA)

377,333
383,315
p377,885

361,084
366,458
p360,234

rl5.99
[H>pl6.04
(NA)

8.86

"7.83

January
February
March

1987

1988
January
February
March
April
May
June

39.87

3

5

8.50

July
August
September
October
November
December
S e note on page 60.
e
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 116 (14.49), series 115 (13.00), and series 117 (10.67) in June 1984;
series 118 (15.01) in May 1984; series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984; and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984. 2 See "New Features and Changes
for This issue," page iii. 3 Average for weeks ended April 1, 8, 15, and 22. ^Average for weeks ended April 7, 14, and 21. 5 Average for
Apri1 1 through 26.

ItO

APRIL 1988




73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Q

Year
and
month

950. Eleven leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20,
29,32, 36, 99, 106, 111) 1

1-month
span

6-month
span

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41,47,51,57)

1-month
span

DIFFUSION INDEXES

952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries

1-month
span

9-month
span

962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areas2

1-month
span

9-month
span

963. Employees on
private nonagncultural
payrolls, 186
industries

1-month
span

6-month
span

1986
January
February
March

59.1
45.5
59.1

59.1
50.0
54.5

75.0
75.0
50.0

100.0
75.0
75.0

58.3
75.0
66.7

50.0
66.7
50.0

20.0
17.5
85.0

80.0
55.0
30.0

58.8
52.9
64.7

49.0
39.2
51.0

53.2
48.1
48.1

47.6
47.6
43.0

April
May
June

63.6
50.0
59.1

54.5
63.6
63.6

100.0
25.0
37.5

75.0
75.0
100.0

0.0
66.7
33.3

41.7
50.0
33.3

40.0
50.0
52.5

57.5
32.5
52.5

25.5
74.5
56.9

56.9
56.9
67.6

53.5
52.4
46.8

43.2
45.4
48.4

July
August
September

59.1
50.0
50.0

68.2
72.7
90.9

87.5
100.0
75.0

75.0
100.0
100.0

50.0
50.0
41.7

50.0
41.7
50.0

37.5
77.5
65.0

87.5
60.0
82.5

34.3
78.4
17.6

92.2
45.1
90.2

52.4
56.2
55.1

47.3
53.0
59.2

October
November
December

54.5

72.7

81.8
81.8

81.8
90.9

75.0
87.5
100.0

75.0
100.0
100.0

91.7
41.7
25.0

75.0
33.3
58.3

57.5
75.0
52.5

87.5
70.0
52.5

71.6
80.4
7.8

70.6
70.6
94.1

53.2
59.7
59.7

58.9
57.8
58.9

36.4
45.5
63.6

72.7
72.7
63.6

25.0
100.0
50.0

100.0
100.0
50.0

66.7
25.0
25.0

50.0
58.3
66.7

67.5
60.0
32.5

72.5
70.0
75.0

88.2
35.3
52.0

69.6
82.4
78.4

53.5
56.8
58.6

61.9
62.7
58.9

r40.9
45.5
68.2

72.7
63.6
r59.1

62.5
50.0
87.5

100.0
100.0
100.0

75.0
r50.0
58.3

r50.0
58.3
50.0

7.5
95.0
50.0

62.5
32.5
85.0

73.5
78.4
15.7

80.4
94.1
90.2

58.4
58.6
55.7

67.3
67.6
71.1

July
August
September

50.0
45.5
59.1

63.6
63.6

r59.1

100.0
100.0
75.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

r41.7
41.7
91.7

r50.0
58.3
66.7

55.0
60.0
22.5

55.0
70.0
r95.0

64.7
84.3
37.3

92.2
59.8
66.7

68.6
54.6
65.4

76.2
78.6
80.3

October
November
December

72.7
rl8.2
50.0

r63.6
59.1
3
50.0

75.0
50.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
'100.0

66.7
r75.0
25.0

66.7
83.3
50.0

85.0
40.0
32.5

r32.5
p45.0

86.3
23.5
5.9

r31.4
p70.6

65.4
71.9
63.2

r75.7
r77.6
p74.3

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June

5

1988
January
February
March

r45.5
54.5
3
66.7

75.0
87.5
* 100.0

5

50.0
66.7
50.0

r45.0
r25.O
p55.0

78.4

r33.3
p64.7

r60.0
r62.2
p55.7

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span: 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised: " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
1
Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
2
Figures are the percent of components declining.
3
Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available.
"•Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
5
Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

74




APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q j

Year
and
month

964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries

1-month
span

9-month
span

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries

1-quarter
span

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

966. Industrial production, 24 industries

4-Q moving
average

1-month
span

967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials ©

6-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

968. Stock prices, 500
common stocks 1 ©

1-month
span

9-month
span

960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies2©

(4-quarter span)

1986
January
February
March

55.9
47.1
44.1

38.2
44.1
44.1

36

April
May
June

58.8
26.5
55.9

47.1
51.5
50.0

24

July
August
September

44.1
39.7
64.7

32.4
67.6
r52.9

59

October
November
December

50.0
44.1
63.2

67.6
r79.4
r70.6

65

January
February
March

r50.0
r67.6
55.9

85.3
72.1
79.4

42

April
May
June

r41.2
r42.6
64.7

82.4
79.4
79.4

83

July
August
September

67.6
39.7
58.8

r70.6
r70.6
r79.4

r59

October
November
December

52.9
47.1
55.9

r76.5
p69.1

p65

75.0
41.7
58.3

61.5
38.5
34.6

46.2
50.0
57.7

60.5
81.0
94.0

90.5
90.5
88.1

70

43

85.4
37.5
16.7

47.9
50.0
58.3

53.8
61.5
65.4

42.3
50.0
50.0

61.9
50.0
77.4

88.1
90.5
81.0

*70

46

75.0
35.4
52.1
58.3
47.9
31.2

47.9
75.0
79.2

50.0
50.0
65.4

50.0
65.4
73.1

35.7
67.9
42.9

81.0
71.4
78.6

*74

48

72.9
87.5
87.5

73.1
61.5
65.4

65.4
80.8
76.9

34.5
76.2
50.0

95.2
100.0
92.9

74

62

70.8
70.8
75.0

91.7
89.6
75.0

84.6
42.3
30.8

88.5
96.2
80.8

98.8
95.2
83.3

87.8
92.7
92.5

74

r62

31.2
64.6
60.4

75.0
87.5
83.3

61.5
88.5
57.7

73.1
96.2
80.8

39.3
46.3
93.9

97.5
97.5
62.5

76

p62

50.0
70.8
70.8

91.7
91.7

r95.8

73.1
76.9
61.5

88.5
88.5
76.9

81.3
95.0
8.8

10.0
12.5
10.0

(NA)

(NA)

70.8
62.5
50.0
75.0
79.2
r66.7

r87.5
r75.0
p83.3

53.8
46.2
50.0

53.8
69.2
69.2

0.0
0.0
53.8

17.5
8.0

1987

3

1988
January
February
March

r44.1
r50.0
p50.0

(NA)

r54.2
54.2
p58.3

42.3
34.6
65.4
3

April
May
June

75.0
88.8
37.0

57.7

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
1
Based on 43 industries through January 1986, on 42 industries through April 1987, on 41 industries through June 1987, and on 40 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun fT Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on average for April 5, 12, 19, and 26.

APRIL 1988



75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q
970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment,
21 industries

Year
and
quarter

a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Qspan)

971. New orders, manufacturing! (u)

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade1 @

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(1-Qspan)

(1-Qspan)

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade' @

Actual

c. Early
projections

b. Later
projections

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1985
First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r

66.7
73.8
61.9
52.4

Fourth quarter

9
2
7
9

66.7
71.4
76.2
38.1

74
74
76
75

82
84
82
80

70
69
70
70

80
81
81
78

76
74
75
74

84
84
84
81

47.
66.
42.
85.

6
7
9
7

64.3
66.7
38.1
52.4

76
76
74
75

82
83
84
78

70
71
70
70

78
81
81
78

72
73
74
74

81
84
83
80

40.5
61.9
85.7
64.3

42.
78.
85.
85.

9
6
7
7

50.0
71.4
66.7
61.9

78
83
82
82

80
83
85
86

74
74
75
76

78
81
83
82

78
80
82
83

82
83
85
86

(NA)

....

61
76
66.
42.

19.0
52.4
42.9
81.0

....

Third quarter

85. 7

61.9
57.1

(NA)

84

(NA)

82
82

(NA)

85
84

1986
First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r

....

Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1987
First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r

....

Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1988
First q u a r t e r
Second quarter

....

84

Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

Q |
974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade '• (u)

Year
and
quarter

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade1 (u)

976. Selling price s, manufactoring1 (u)

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1 @
Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued

Anticipated

Actual

978. Selling prices, retail
trade' (u)

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1985
Second q u a r t e r

....

Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

60
58
58
59

60
62
59
58

66
63
60
61

64
66
62
58

65
62
61
61

70
70
64
62

54
50
59
50

68
66
66
60

66
63
66
62

65
70
67
62

58
59
60
58

59
60
59
58

62
61
62
60

58
58
60
57

59
60
58
63

62
65
62
59

c

59
59
58
{ 52

64
64
62
62

60
62
66
62

62
62
64
64

60
61
64
64

60
59
62
62

64
65
66
68

60
60
61
62

64
64
68
70

60
66
67
66

53
70
72
70

63
68
66
69

67
67
72
72

64
64
68
70

(NA)

First q u a r t e r

63
62

(NA)

62
64

(NA)

70
69

(NA)

72
72

(NA)

68
71

1986
First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r

....

Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1987
First q u a r t e r
Second quarter

....

Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1988
First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r

....

Third quarter
Fourth quarter

. . .

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those
indicated b y @ , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

7
6




APRIL 1988

Dun &

IU II

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

^ Q

S L C E DF U I N I D X C M O E T : Basic Data and Directions of Change
E E T D I F SO N E
O P N NS

Diffusion index components

1987

August

September

October

1988

November

December

Januaryr

Februaryr

March p

961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Hours)

All manufacturing industries

41.0

Percent rising of 20 components

40.6

(60)

o

41.2

41.0

40.9

(32)

(45)

(25)

(55)

40.0

41.3

(22)

41.2

41.0

(85)

+

(40)

+

Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products

40.4

Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries

+

Fabricated metal products

+

+

40.4

+

40.8

40.4

40.1

+

40.4

39.3

+

40.0

o

40.0

39.8

39.4

+

39.5

41.9

+

42.6

42.5

42.0

+

42.3

+

42.6

43.5

+

39.4

40.1
42.1

Furniture and fixtures

43.4

+

43.7

o

43.7

43.6

43.5

43.2

+

43.3

+

42.5

o

41.5

40.8

+

42.0

+

42.1

41.7

+

41.9

41.4

42.2

Machinery, except electrical

41.6

+

42.6

+

42.7

42.5

+

42.8

39.0

42.6

41.5
42.4

41.0

40.4

+

41.1

41.0

40.9

+

41.2

40.9

+

41.1

Transportation equipment

+

41.9

41.3

+

42.5

42.4

41.4

+

42.3

42.0

o

42.0

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing

+

41.7

41.1

+

42.1

41.7

41.3

+

+

39.4

39.0

+

40.0

39.6

+

Food and kindred products

+

40.3

40.2

+

40.5

40.6

o

Tobacco manufacturers

+

36.1

38.9

+

41.2

41.0

42.1

41.3

+

41.9

41.8

37.4

36.3

+

37.4

37.1

Electric and electronic equipment

41.2

41.9

41.3

38.9

38.8

40.8

40.4

40.2

39.2

39.8

38.3

36.9

+

38.9

Nondurable goods industries:

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

+

+

+

40.6

+

40.5
41.7
+

41.7

o

41.7

-

41.3

36.9

o

37.2

+

37.0

o

37.0

43.3

o

43.3

38.0

+

38.1
42.5

Paper and allied products

43.4

+

43.8

43.7

43.5

43.2

+

43.6

Printing and publishing

37.9

+

38.2

38.0

o

38.0

37.9

+

38.0

42.4

+

42.7

o

42.7

o

42.7

o

43.5

+

43.6

+

44.3

Chemicals and allied products

+

Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products

+
+

41.4
38.9

42.8
43.2

43.3
o

41.4
37.7

+
+
+

41.9
38.7

+

42.1
38.3

964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES

+
+

o

42.5
38.5

42.7

42.5

o

44.2

43.4

+

43.5

41.4
36.9

+
+

41.7
37.6

114,264

o

114,317

41.8
37.7

2

(Millions of dollars)

All durable goods industries

-

106,678

+

(40)

Percent rising of 34 components

109,345

+

111,095

-

110,949
(47)

(53)

(59)

+

115,620

-

114,196

+

(44)

(56)

(50)

(50)

9,461

+

10,735

-

10,437

+

10,903

+

11,997

-

10,254

+

10,346

+

10,778

11,014

+

11,200

-

11,077

+

11,290

+

11,472

-

11,142

+

11,762

+

11,803

-

18,4.12

+

18,806

+

18,953

-

18,024

+

19,195

+

20,552

-

19,699

-

19,660

-

19,234

+

19,994

o

19,999

+

20,288

-

19,762

+

20,716

-

19,467

-

18,560

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

27,087

-

26,493

+

28,573

+

28,603

+

31,155

-

28,946

+

30,541

+

31,319

Other durable goods industries

21,470

+

22,117

-

22,056

-

21,841

+

22,039

+

22,586

-

22,449

-

22,197

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation,

the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:

( f) -

rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.

The " r " indicates revised; " p " ,

preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
x
2

Data

are seasonally

Data

for most

change

adjusted by the source

of the diffusion

for the six major

agency.

index components

are not available

for publication, but they are included

in the totals and directions of

industry groups shown here.

APRIL 1988



77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q l

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data andDirections of Char ge—Continued

1988

1987

Diffusion index components

September

August
966.

October

November

January 1 "

December

February 1 "

Marchp

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION '
(1977 = 100)

All industrial production

+

131.0

(62)

Percent rising of 24 components

131.2

+

(50)

132.5

+

(75)

133.2

+

133.9

+

o

134.4

(54)

(67)

(79)

134.4

+

134.6

(54)

(58)

(NA)
(NA)

Durable manufactures:

131.1
155.2

Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures

+

Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery

116.5
85.1

+

110.1
154.3

Clay, glass, and stone products
Primary metals

+

+
+

126.9
155.9

+
+

129.8
156.0

+
+

134.0
158.5

133.6
159.4

+

136.1
157.4

-

+

.135.5
156.1

118.6
84.5

+
+

118.9
90.6

+

120.5
90.2

120.1
r90.6

+

120.2
86.6

+

+

120.8
85.6

+

(NA)
85.9

111.1
156.6

+
+

113.5
158.0

+

113.6
157.2

+
+

115.8
161.0

+
+

117.2
162.5

+
+

117.9
162.7

+
+

118.2
164.0

+
+

177.9
129.9

+
+

174.3
128.1

173.4
125.5

+
+

175.5
132.0

+
-

175.6
130.4

+

rl75.9
128.1

+
+

177.0
128.6

+

177.8
128.4

+
+

146.3
102.2

145.6
102.1

+
+

146.7
104.6

+

147.8
104.5

+

rl45.5
rlO5.6

+

148.7
104.0

+
+

149.3
105.0

149.1
(NA)

+
+

138.8
110.4

139.5
101.7

+
+

138.9
106.5

+
+

rl40.1
110.5

141.2
107.0

+

+

138.0
103.7

+

Tobacco products

142.0
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

Textile mill products

+

119.8
108.4

118.2
107.6

116.8
108.0

+
+

117.3
109.4

+

rll8.2
107.8

+

116.2
108.8

-

+

116.0
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures
Nondurable manufactures:
Foods

Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products

+
+

148.9
174.7

+

147.4
174.9

+

146.0
175.2

+
+

148.3
175.7

+
+

150.6
rl76.9

+

149.7
179.2

+

148.1
180.7

+

(NA)
181.4

+

142.3
92.9

+
+

142.4
93.5

141.5
94.6

+

+

144.4
93.3

+
+

rl47.9
96.1

+
+

148.9
96.3

+

148.0
96.6

+

(NA)
97.8

164.8
61.3

+

165.2
60.7

166.7
59.6

+
+

169.9
60.7

+

+

170.6
57.5

+

170.3
58.3

+
+

170.7
58.9

(NA)
(NA)

+
+

79.3
130.5

+
+

86.5
133.3

85.6
140.3

+
+

90.4
142.9

+

+

(NA)
133.7

(NA)
131.0

+
-

93.0
130.3

+

93.3
130.0

+
+

94.1
131.0

+
+

94.2
134.1

Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products

+

+

Mining:
Metal mining
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

+

91.5
140.2

r96.5
140.6
94.1
135.6

-

92.5
132.2

N O T E : To f a c i l i t a t e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , t h e m o n t h - t o - m o n t h d i r e c t i o n s o f c h a n g e are s h o w n a l o n g w i t h t h e n u m b e r s : ( • )
rising, (o)
unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.
preliminary: and " N A " , not available.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

78




+

92.4
133.4

+

93.5
(NA)

The " r " indicates revised: " p "

APRIL 1988

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q

Diffusion

index

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued

;omponents

1987

September

August

1988

October

November

A
F P T
96 7. INDEX O S O MARKET PRICES , R W INDUSTRIALS

Raw

industrials

price

index ( 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 ) . . . .

+

Percent rising of /.? components

288.3

+

292.4

+

(62)

(77)

294.6

-

292.0

(54)

2

(46)

293.1

292.5

(50)

+

April1

March

February

January

December

(42)

-

288.9

+

292.3

+

(65)

(35)

297.2
(58)

Dollars

Copper scrap

0.619
1.365

+

0.644
1.420

+

0.280
0.617

o

0.280
0.617

+

85.000
93.696

+

95.000
104.719

+

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

3.708
8.175

+

3.812
8.404

+

(pound)..

o

0.480
1.058

0.455
1.003

-

+

0.240
0.262

+

0.754
1.662

-

0.965
1.055

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

(pound)..

(pound)..

Lead scrap

(kilogram)..
Steei scrap

(U.S.

ton)..

(metric t o n ) . .
Tin

Zinc

(kilogram)

Burlap

(yard)..
(meter)..

Cotton

(pound)..

(yard)..

Hides

(100 p o u n d s ) . .

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

Tallow

(pound)..
(kilogram)

NOTE: T o facilitate interpretation, the m o n t h - t o - m o n t h
preliminary: and " N A " . not available.

0.938
2.068

-

0.785
1.731

-

0.770
1.698

-

0.748
1.649

0

0.276
0.608

-

0.272
0.600

-

0.252
0.556

-

0.230
0.507

-

0.214
0.472

-

0.210
0.463

117.000
128.969

- 115.750
127.591

-

104.000
114.639

3.848
8.483

3.928
8.660

+

0.280
0.617

-

- 100.000
110.230

3.878
8.549

-

+ 115.000
126.765

- 109.000
120.151

- 108.750
119.875
3.828
8.439

3.792
8.360

3.860
8.510

+

3.836
8.457

0.449
0.990

+

0.451
0.994

+

0.454
1.001

+

0.458
1.010

+

0.469
1.034

+

0.492
1.085

+

0.542
1.195

0.256
0.280

+

0.270
0.295

+

0.275
0.301

o

0.275
0.301

+

0.276
0.302

+

0.277
0.303

+

0.281
0.307

+

0.645
1.422

-

0.622
1.371

-

0.595
1.312

-

0.574
1.265

+

0.594
1.310

+

0.597
1.316

-

0.946
1.035

-

0.905
0.990

-

0.655
0.716

-

0.630
0.689

-

0.620
0.678

-

0.590
0.645

-

0.536
0.586

+

0.550
0.601

3.850
8.488

+

4.080
8.995

4.100
9.039

0

4.100
9.039

+

4.380
9.656

+

4.750
10.472

+

5.000
11.023

+

5.420
11.949

+

6.208
13.686

+

0.938
2.068

+

0.987
2.176

+

1.000
2.205

-

0.952
2.099

0.942
2.077

-

0.928
2.046

o

0.928
2.046

+

1.065
2.348

+

1.100
2.425

o

50.000
110.230

o

50.000
110.230

0

50.000
110.230

0

50.000
110.230

o

50.000
110.230

-

48.125
106.096

-

47.500
104.719

0

47.500
104.719

o

47.500
104.719

+

0.537
1.184

+

0.542
1.195

-

0.538
1.186

-

0.532
1.173

+

0.540
1.190

+

0.547
1.206

-

0.536
1.182

+

0.549
1.210

+

0.555
1.224

0.147
0.324

+

0.152
0.335

-

0.150
0.331

-

0.146
0.322

+

0.148
0.326

+

0.173
0.381

-

0.168
0.370

+

0.170
0.375

-

0.165
0.364

(100 kilograms)..

Rubber

+

0.636
1.402

(kilogram)..

Rosin

0.934
2.059

-

(meter)..

Wool tops

0.238
0.260

+

0.712
1.570

(kilogram)..

Print cloth

-

0.825
1.819

0.646
1.424

+

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

directions o f change are s h o w n along with the n u m b e r s :

(•)

rising, ( o )

u n c h a n g e d , a n d ( - ) •= f a l l i n g .

The " r " indicates revised:

"p".

The index is the average for April 1 through 26; component prices are averages for April 5, 12, 19, and 26.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, lac. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2

APRIL 1988



79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

il
200. Gross national p roduct

Year
and
quarter

(Ann

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

rate,

bil. jol.)

217. Per capita
gross national
product in 1982
dollars

a. Total

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

c. Percent
change at
annual ate

b. Difference
( Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Ann. rate,
bil do!.)

213. Final sales
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars

in current dollars

b. Difference

a. Total

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

104.4

69.3
52.5
68.4
62.4

7 4
5 5
7 1
6

: ,568.
: ,587.
: ,623.
,650.

174.4
211.6
265.9
288.1

70.0
37.2
54.3
22.2

7
3
5
2

: ,698.
z,, 7 0 4 ..
718

4 , 377.7
4, 445.1
4 , 524.0
4, 6 0 7 . 4

89.6
67.4
78.9
83.4

8 6
6. 3
7 3
7 6

: ,772.
z,, 7 9 5 ..
z 835
3 ,880.

2
3
9
8

40 7
23 1
40 6
44 9

660.9

p53.5

7

p3 , 9 0 2 .

6

p21 8

3,
3,
4,
4,

....
....

921.1
973.6
042.0

7
1
0
9

33
18
35
27

5
4
9
9

3 .8
2 .1
4 .1
3 .1

14,966
15,010
15,120
15,19 1

3,549.2
3,569.9
3,628.7
3,652.5

8
7
0
,731. 5

47
5
13
13

9
9
3
5

.4

o.6
.4

15,362
15,352
15,370
15,388

3,663.4
3,676.7
3,711.9
3,745.8

4 .8

15,525
15,588
15,715
15,85<

3,724.5
3,756.3
3,811.4
3,820.3

P2 .3

pl5,910

p3,844.7

z

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

4,
4,
4,
4,

....
....

0
6
3

1

1

1 .5

1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

4 .4
2 .5
4 .3

1988
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

P4

....
....

D

E

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME—Continued

9

230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income

Year
and
quarter

(Ann rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,

bi . dol.)

231. Total n 1982
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

233. Durable goods
in 1982 dollars

227. Per capita in
1982 dollars

225. Constant
(1982) dollars

224. Current dollars

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

(Ann . rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann rate,
bil. (iol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

2,762.
2,848.
2,847.
2,906.

2
4
2
6

2,506
2,558
2,538
2,565

.8
.4
.2
.5

10
10
10
10

,513
,705
,592
,679

2 ,549.
2 ,602.
2 ,665.
2 ,700.

9
0
4
1

2 ,314
2 ,337
2 ,376
2 ,383

1
0
1
2

358.2
362.4
383.7
370.5

342.4
346.6
366.8
355.1

2,966.
3,022.
3,038.
3,061.

0
4
2
6

2,610
2,660
2,653
2,656

.5
.2
_2
.1

10
11
10
10

,842
,024
,968
,956

2 ,737.
2 ,765
2 ,837
2 ,858

9
8
1
6

2 ,409
2 ,434
2 ,477
2 ,480

7
3
5
5

375.9
386.4
427.6
419.8

359.8
369.6
405.5
399.0

3,125.
3,130.
3,195.
3,275.

9
6
3
0

2,674
2,645
2,674
2,713

.6
.5

11
10
10
11

,008
,865
,958
,090

2 ,893 8
2 ,943 7
3 ,011 o
3 ,022 6

2 ,475
2 ,487
2 ,520
2 ,504

9
5
7
.6

396.1
409.0
436.8
413.0

375.9
385.4
406.9
384.5

Dll ,151

P3 , 0 6 8 7

P2 ,528 2

p425.7

p396.2

1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
F o u r t h quarter

....
....

1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

.7
.8

1988
First quarter
Second quarter

p3,320. 2

p 2 , 7 3 5 .4

....

Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; " p " . preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 4 1 .




APRIL 1988

MX*

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

K R

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued

238. Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Q

237. Services in
current dollars

239. Services in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
241. Total in
1982 dollars

242. Fixed investment in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

894.4
910.4
918.4
929.3

1,297.3
1,329.2
1,363.3
1,400.3

1,130.5
1,142.8
1,155.7
1,172.5

638.6
648.4
628.6
650.8

632.1
645.7
623.2
643.3

617.3
629.9
631.0
648.3

612.7
628.4
628.9
644.9

868.8
880.0
879.8
880.3

1,425.2
1,445.1
1,469.5
1,492.4

1,181.2
1,184.7
1,192.2
1,201.1

683.4
679.4
660.8
660.2

674.4
665.6
645.0
631.0

645.1
651.9
657.3
656.6

639.1
637.6
638.8
645.4

969.9
982.1
986.4
993.1

883.2
879.0
875.7
874.6

1,527.7
1,552.6
1,588.1
1,616.5

1,216.9
1,223.1
1,238.1
1,245.6

699.9
702.6
707.4
760.2

671.8
673.7
681.9
723.1

648.2
662.3
684.5
690.8

624.2
634.7
657.3
662.6

p993.9

....

841.2
847.6
853.5
855.7

936.8
934.3
940.0
946.3

....

p874.2

pi,649.0

pi,257.7

p761.9

p738.4

p704.9

p680.5

1986

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1987

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1988

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....
•

•

mSt

GROSS PRIVATE

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Year
and
quarter

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

260. Total in
current dollars

261. Total in
1982 dollars

262.

Federal

Government in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann.

rate,

bil. dol.)

263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1985

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

21.4
18.5
-2.4
2.5

19.5
17.3
-5.7
-1.6

784.1
800.5
832.8
857.0

703.4
712.1
738.6
753.7

336.3

38.3
27.5
3.5
-6.4

35.3
28.1
6.1
-14.4

846.9
867.2
878.5
886.3

737.6
751.6
757.2
771.8

356.7

51.6
40.3
22.9
69.4

47.6
39.0
24.6
60.5

896.2
917.1
929.0
948.8

759.6
766.7
771.7
788.9

366.9

p57.0

....

p57.9

p945.6

p768.3

308.4
310.7
332.5
345.3

447.8
461.1
470.9
479.0

395.0
401.4
406.1
408.4

322.1
330.6
332.6
344.6

490.2
498.8
507.3
517.7

415.5
421.0
424.6
427.1

388.9

327.3
332.6
336.3
347.6

529.3
537.6
546.9
559.9

432.3
434.1
435.4
441.3

p376.8

p325.3

p568.9

p442.9

339.4
361.9
378.0

1986

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

368.4
371.2
368.6

1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

379.6
382.1

1988

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
. . .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 4 1 , 42, and 43.

licit

APRIL 1988



81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

NATIONAL INCOME

FOREIGN TRADE

AND ITS COMPONENTS
220. National in-

and
quarter

250. Current

255. Constant

252. Current

256. Constant

253. Current

(1982) dollars

dollars

(1982) dollars

dollars

sation of
employees

257. Constant

dollars

280. Compen-

come in current
dollars

Imports of goods and services

Exports of goods and services

Net exports of goods and services

Year

(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

1985

368.7

427.7
447.8
448.9
472.2

450.7
472.4
475.4
495.8

3,156.5
3,204.4
3,254.4
3,304.4

2,314.9
2,351.5
2,386.3
2,430.5

-123.0
-146.8
-161.6
-151.8

373.5
371.3
376.6
383.3

371.5
370.2
379.6
388.3

467.3
472.1
487.1
500.2

494.4
517.0
541.2
540.1

3,364.2
3,414.1
3,438.7
3,471.0

2,464.8
2,487.6
2,515.1
2,552.0

-112.2
-118.4
-123.7
-124.3

-135.2
-132.7
-138.4
-135.8

397.3
416.5
439.2
458.1

397.8
414.5
437.1
453,5

509.5
534.8
562.9
582.4

533.0
547.2
575.6
589.3

3,548.3
3,593.3
3,659.0
r3,743.5

2,589.9
2,623.4
2,663.5
2,713.5

p-115.4

.

Fourth quarter

p-132.2

p470.6

p464.6

p586.0

p596.8

(NA)

p2,762.4

-81.0
-107.7
-114.9
-129.3

376.3

-93.8
-100.8
-110.5
-116.9

Second quarter
Third quarter

369.7
364.
360,
366

-51.5
-77.3
-84.7
-103.5

First quarter . .

370.6
364.2

1986
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter

.

Fourth quarter

1987
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter

.

Fourth quarter

1988
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter

.

Fourth quarter

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Contmued

282. Proprietors'

quarter

286. Corporate

of persons with
CCAdj1

292. Personal
saving

with IVA and

288. Net interest

290. Gross saving

295. Business
saving

profits before tax

and CCAdj'

and

284. Rental income

income with IVA

Year

SAVING

.CCAdj'

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

1985
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter

.

Fourth quarter

252.1
256.4
252.4
268.0

7.3
9.1
9.3
10.1

265.6
274.2
292.8
277.8

316.5
313.2
313.7
317.9

552.0
547.7
514.7
510.7

518.6
533.0
552.7
544.3

131.2
162.8
95.7
118.5

270.8
298.1
292.5
297.8

14.0
17.4
17.2
18.4

288.0
282.3
285.4
281.1

326.6
328.7
327.5
321.7

557.8
538.7
516.2
515.3

553.4
547.7
551.5
544.4

138.4
166.0
108.9
109.0

320.9
323.1
322.7
342.7

20.0
18.9
17.3
20.9

294.0
296.8
314.9
r313.0

323.6
331.1
340.6
353.3

554.3
551.3
559.3
r595.9

545.3
546.7
559.8
r562.6

138.4
93.2
88.8
155.7

p336.7

p21.1

(NA)

p356.2

(NA)

(NA)

pl53.1

1986
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter

.

Fourth quarter

1987
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter

.

Fourth quarter

1988
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter

.

Fourth quarter

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
1

82

IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.




APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q j

SAVING—Continued

and

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL

293. Personal
saving rate

298. Government
surplus or deficit

Year

^ J

Percent of gross national product

quarter

235. Personal consumption expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

INCOME

(Percent)

(Percent)

247. Change in
business inventories

249. Residential

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment

ixed investment

(Percent)

(Percent)

251. Net exports of
goods and services
(Percent)

(Percent)

1985

First quarter
Second q u a r t e r
Third quarter
F o u r t h quarter

-97.8
-148.1
-133.7
-152.1

65.0
65.5
65.9
65.8

11.0

10.9
11.0

4.7
4.6
4.7
4.8

4.7
5.5
3.6
3.6

65.6
65.7
66.5
66.7

10.6
10.3
10.2
10.3

4.9
5.2
5.2
5.3

-0.1

-2.2
-2.4
-2.6
-2.7

-129.5
-88.6
-89.3
r-122.3

4.4
3.0
2.8
4.8

66.1
66.2
66.6
65.6

9.7
9.8

10.1
10.0

5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0

1.2
0.9
0.5
1.5

-2.6
-2.7
-2.7
-2.7

(NA)

....

4.8
5.7
3.4
4.1

-134.0
-175.0
-144.1
-138.1

....

p4.6

p65.8

pl0.2

p4.9

pi.2

p-2.5

11.2

0.5
0.5
-0.1

0.1

-1.3
-1.9
-2.1
-2.5

1986

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
F o u r t h quarter

....
....

0.9
0.7
0.1

1987

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1988

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
F o u r t h quarter

....
....

[ H SHARES OFGNP AND NATIONAL

INCOME—Continued

Percent of GNP-Continued

Year
and
quarter

265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services

Percent of national income

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services

(Percent)

(Percent)

64. Compensation of

283. Proprietors'

285. Rental income

employees

income with IVA

of persons with

and CCAdj
(Percent)

x

CCAdj'
(Percent)

(Percent)

287. Corporate profits
before tax with
IVA and CCAdjl

289. Net interest

(Percent)

(Percent)

1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter

Fourth quarter

....

8.6
8.5
9.0
9.2

11.4
11.6
11.7
11.7

73.3
73.4

8.5
8.7
8.7
8.6

11.7
11.8
11.9
12.1

73.3

8.4
8.5
8.4
8.4

12.1
12.1
12.1
12.2

p8.1

....

pl2.2

8.0
8.0
7.8
8.1

0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3

8.4
8.6
9.0
8.4

10.0

72.9

8.0
8.7

73.1

8.5

73.5

8.6

0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5

8.6
8.3
8.3
8.1

9.7
9.6
9.5
9.3

73.0

0.6
0.5
0.5

8.3
8.3
8.6

72.5

9.0
9.0
8.8
9.2

0.6

r8.4

9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

73.3
73.6

9.8
9.6
9.6

1986
First q u a r t e r
Second q u a r t e r
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1987

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
F o u r t h quarter

....
....

73.0
72.8

1988

First quarter
Second q u a r t e r
T h i r d quarter
F o u r t h quarter

....
. . .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
X

IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

not

APRIL 1988




8
3

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

j Q
Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1982-100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product
311. Index

(1982 = 100)

311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Consumer price index
for all urban consumers

320. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

322. Index

(1982-84=100)

322c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1986

112.9

April . .
May
June

113.7

July
August
September

114.7

October
November
December

11^9

109.6
109.3
108.8

0.3
-0.3
-0.4

0.6
-0.2
0.0

107.4

107.0
107.3

0.2
-0.4
0.3

3.0
2.6
1.9

1.9

108.6
108.9
109.5

-0.3
0.2
0.5

-0.5
0.4
1.7

107.6
108.0
108.2

0.3
0.4
0.2

3.4
5.9
6.1

2.3

109.5
109.7
110.2

0.0
0.2
0.3

2.6
2.8
2.2

109.2
110.1
110.5

0.9
0.8
0.4

5.8
5.8
5.8

1.8

110.3
110.4
110.5

0.2
0.3
0.2

3.7
4.1
4.4

110.7
111.1
111.3

0.2
,0.4
0.2

5.0
3.7
3.3

4.2

111.2
111.6
112.1

0.7
0.4
0.4

5.0
5.1
5.3

111.9
112.1
112.3

0.5
0.2
0.2

3.6
4.0
4.7

4.0

112.7
113.1
113.5

0.4
0.4
0.3

4.4
4.5
4.1

112.7
113.3
113.9

0.4
0.5
0.5

3.4
3.2
4.0

3.2

113.8
114.4
115.0

0.3
0.4
0.3

3.9
3.7
3.6

113.8
113.9
114.5

-0.1
0.1
0.5

3.6
2.7
2.5

3.3

115.3
115.4
115.4

0.3
0.3
0.2

3.7
3.2
3.7

114.7
114.8
115.3

0.2
0.1
0.4

3.2
2.5
2.1

(NA)

115.7
116.0
116.5

0.3
0.2
0.5

115.6
115.3
115.7

0.3
-0.3
0.3

1.9

1.8

January
February
March

112.9

2.9

113'.4

3.6

114.1
0.7
114.6

1987

4.2

January
February
March

116.1

April
May
June

117.1

July
August
September

117.9

October
November
December

118.7

115.8
3.5

116.9
2.8

117.9
2.7

118.8

1988
January
February
March

p2.4
pll9.4

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.




APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

j M

Producer

Year

330. Index ©

and

price index, all commodities
330c. Change
over 1-month
1

month

(1982 = 100)

(Percent)

Producer price index, crude materials
tor turther processing

Producer price index, industrial commodities

330c. Change
over 6-month

335. Index ©

335c. Change
over 6-month

335c. Change
over 1-month

1

1

spans ©

spans ©

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued

spans ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1982 = 100)

331. Index

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

1

spans ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

(1982 = 100)

(Percent)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1986
January

103.2

February

101.7
100.3

-0.4
-1.5
-1.4

-6.3
-6.5
-7.0

103.7
102.1
100.5

-0.4
-1.5
-1.6

-7.6
-7.9
-8.1

94.2
90.4
88.3

-1.2
-4.0
-2.3

-17.8
-17.4
-18.2

99.6
100.0
99.9

-0.7
0.4
-0.1

-7.2
-4.7
-1.8

99.8
99.8
99.8

-0.7
0.0
0.0

-9.2
-6.7
-3.4

85.4
86.8
86.2

-3.3
1.6
-0.7

-15.9
-8.2
-4.0

March
April
May
June
July
August
September

99.4.
99.3
99.4

-0.5
-0.1
0.1

0.2
-0.4
-0.4

98.8
98.6
98.8

-1.0
-0.2
0.2

-1.4
-1.2
-1.2

86.4
86.6
86.5

0.2
0.2
-0.1

5.0
1.4
0.9

October

99.7
99.8
99.7

0.3
0.1
-0.1

2.2
3.5
3.7

99.1
99.2
99.2

0.3
0.1
0.0

3.3
4.5
4.7

87.5
87.4
86.6

1.2
-0.1
-0.9

6.3

100.5
101.0
101.2

0.8
0.5
0.2

4.5
5.7
6.7

100.4
100.8
101.1

1.2
0.4
0.3

5.1
5.5
6.6

89.1
89.9
90.6

2.9
0.9
0.8

11.3
16.4
19.3

June

101.9
102.6
103.0

0.7
0.7
0.4

6.1
5.6
5.0

101.6
101.9
102.4

0.5
0.3
0.5

5.5
5.8
4.8

92.3
94.3
94.6

1.9
2.2
0.3

15.1
15.7
12.3

July
August
September

103.5
103.8
103.7

0.5
0.3
-0.1

4.4
3.1
2.1

103.1
103.7
103.5

0.7
0.6
-0.2

4.8
4.6
3.3

95.6
96.7
96.0

1.1
1.2
-0.7

rl.3
0.0

October

104.1
104.2
104.1

0.4
0.1
-0.1

1.9
1.5
2.3

104.0
104.2
104.1

0.5
0.2
-0.1

2.3
1.4
2.3

96.1

r94.9
94.6

0.1
r-1.2
r-0.3

-4.1
-4.5
-3.9

104.5
104.6
104.9

0.4
0.1
0.3

104.3
104.4
104.7

0.2
0.1
0.3

93.6
94.5
94.1

-1.1
1.0
-0.4

November
December

7.8
9.7

1987
January
February
March
April
May

November
December

8.4

1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
x

Changes are centered within the spans:

APRIL 1988



1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

^ f l
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month

332. Index

(1982 = 100)

Producer price index, capital equipment

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Contmued

333 Index

333c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(1982 = 100)

(Percent)

Producer price index, finished consumer goods

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(1982 = 100)

(Percent)

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1986
102.3
101.1
99.9

-0.6
-1.2
-1.2

-6.5
-7.3
-8.0

108.6
108.7
108.9

0.1
0.1
0.2

1.9
1.7
2.0

104.5
102.6
101.2

-0.8
-1.8
-1.4

-6.8
-6.9
-7.8

April
May
June

99.0
98.8
98.7

-0.9
-0.2
-0.1

-8.2
-6.0
-2.6

109.2
109.3
109.6

0.3
0.1
0.3

2.0
1.8
2.0

100.4
101.0
101.1

-0.8
0.6
0.1

-8.1
-3.7
-0.2

July
August
September

98.0
98.0
98.6

-0.7
0.0
0.6

-1.6
-1.0
-0.6

109.7

109.7
110.0

0.1
0.0
0.3

2.4
2.8
2.2

100.2
100.7
101.1

-0.9
0.5
0.4

2.0
0.8
0.6

October
November
December

98.2
98.3
98.4

-0.4
0.1
0.1

2.1
3.3
2.4

110.5
110.8
110.8

0.5
0.3
0.0

2.8
2.4
2.0

101.4
101.4
101.4

0.3
0.0
0.0

3.2
2.8
3.0

99.0
99.6
99.8

0.6
0.6
0.2

4.1
5.2
6.0

111.2
111.0
111.1

0.4
-0.2
0.1

1.6
1.3
1.1

101.8
102.1
102.6

0.4
0.3
0.5

3.8
4.4
4.6

April
May
June

100.2
100.8
101.3

0.4
0.6
0.5

5.9
5.7
5.9

111.4
111.5
111.4

0.3
0.1
-0.1

0.7
1.6
2.5

103.3
103.6
103.7

0.7
0.3
0.1

4.6
4.4
4.1

July
August
September

101.9
102.4
102.7

0.6
0.5
0.3

6.1
5.6
5.2

111.6
111.9
112.5

0.2
0.3
0.5

1.1
1.1
1.6

104.1
104.3
104.7

0.4
0.2
0.4

rl.7
0.4

October
November
December

103.2
103.6
103.9

0.5
0.4
0.3

4.6
3.5
4.1

112.0
112.1
112.3

-0.4
0.1
0.2

1.6
1.4
1.2

104.5
rlO4.5
103.9

-0.2
rO.O
r-0.6

0.4
-0.8
-0.2

104.2
104.2
104.8

0.3
0.0
0.6

112.5

0.2
0.2
0.4

104.3
103.9
104.6

0.4
-0.4
0.7

January
February
March

1987
January
February
March

2.3

1988
January
February
March

112.7
113.2

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:




1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1
Year
and
month

Current-dollar earnings
340. Index

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2

(1977 = 100)

(Percent)

Current-dollar compensation

Real earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341. Index

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2

(1977 = 100)

(Percent)

341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2

345. Index

(1977 = 100)

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1986
January
February
March

167.5
168.2
168.5

-0.2
0.4
0.2

2.8
2.4
1.7

93.6
94.3
95.1

-0.5
0.7
0.8

2.8
3.1
2.2

179.3

April
May
June

168.5

168.9
169.2

0.0
0.2
0.2

1.8
1.5
1.5

95.4
95.4
95.2

0.4
0.0
-0.2

3.2
1.9
0.1

180.5

July
August
September

169.1
169.5
169.8

-0.1
0.3
0.1

2.0
2.8
2.2

95.1
95.2
95.1

0.0
0.1
-0.1

-0.4
0.3
0.1

181.8

October
November
December

170.2
171.2
171.1

0.3
0.6
-0.1

2.6
2.7
2.9

95.2
95.5
95.2

0.1
0.3
-0.3

-1.0
-1.3
-1.5

183^6

January
February
March

171.2
171.8
172.2

0.1
0.3
0.2

2.9
2.0
2.2

94.6
94.6
94.4

-0.6
-0.1
-0.2

-2.1
-3.2
-3.1

184*1

April
May
June

172.6
172.9
172.9

0.3
0.1
0.0

2.3
2.7
2.9

94.2
94.0
93.8

-0.2
-0.2
-0.2

-2.1
-1.9
-1.3

185.5

July
August
September

173.2
174.1
174.6

0.2
0.5
0.3

2.7
3.4
3.2

93.7
93.7
93.8

-0.1
0.0
0.1

-1.2
-0.3
-0.3

187.1

October
November
December

174.9
175.8
175.7

0.2
0.5
-0.1

r3.8

93.6
93.8
93.6

-0.2
0.3
-0.2

0.0
-0.3
p-0.4

188.6

176.4
176.5
pl77.1

0.4
rO.l
p0.4

93.7
r93.6
p93.6

0.0
-0.1
pO.O

3.9
3.6

2.8
3.4

2.9

2.7

4.0

2.8

1987

2.8
p2.9

1.1

2.9
3.0
2.*7

3.5
(NA)

3.3

1988
January
February
March

(NA)
(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.

APRIL 1988




87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

j R

Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector—Continued
Year
and
month

348. Average
first-year
changes ©

Real compensation
346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

346. Index

(1977 = 100)

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per hour, all persons, bus ness sector

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract @

(Ann. rate,
percent)

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

370. Index

(1977 = 100)

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm business sector

(1977 = 100)

1986
January
February
March

2.3
99.3

April
May
June

100.4

July
August
September

100.5

October
November
December

0.6

1.2

1.9

100.8

4.2

0.7

1.6

2.*1

1.5

2.4

"!:?

107.7

0.2

10 7 .' 5

0.4

107.*5

1.6

107.6

1.6

108.0

(NA)

109 .'l

-0.3
109*6

2.7

1H7.7

0.6

1.2

0.4

1.3

1.3

109.7

0.7

0.5

5.8
109^5

-0.1
109.6

1987
January
February
March

99.8

April
May
June

99.3

July
August
September

99.3

October
November
December

99.2

-4.1

rl.l

r2.1

-K2

-1.7

4.1

-i".6
-0.3

3.9

1.4
110.1

2.5

4.7

2.1

ni.-3

(NA)

-0.4

0.5
109.7

3.4

2.4

-0.2
111-3

109.2

1988
January
February
March

(NA)
(NA)

pi.7

pi.8

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Q [

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers

Civilian labor force
Year

441. Total

and

442. Civilian

Number unemployed

employment

month

37. Persons
unemployed

444. Males
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

445. Females
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

Civilian labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over

452. Females
20 years
and over

453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Thous.)

448. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

116,751
116,951
117,183

108,904
108,524
108,853

7,847
8,427
8,330

3,521
3,766
3,778

2,920
3,180
3,109

1,406
1,481

117,334
117,481
118,112

108,961
109,037
109,671

8,373
8,444
8,441

3,724
3,836
3,791

118,115
118,150
118,345

109,837
110,035
110,047

8,278
8,115
8,298

118,424
118,671
118,576

110,194
110,457
110,657

118,978
119,230
119,246

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

1986

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1,443

5,301
5,209
5,307

78.3
78.1
78.1

55.0
55.1
55.1

53.4
54.5
54.9

3,102
3,116
3,133

1,547
1,492
1,517

6,814
6,926
6,792

5,564
5,600
5,381

78.0
78.0
78.2

55.2
55.3
55.7

55.5
55.1
55.4

3,820
3,661
3,831

3,025
3,005
2,991

1,433
1,449
1,476

6,691
6,553
6,792

5,149
5,288
5,337

78.1
77.9
78.1

55.7
55.8
55.7

54.6
54.9
54.9

8,230
8,214
7,919

3,817
3,807
3,728

3,007
2,971
2,826

1,406
1,436
1,365

6,704
6,672
6,481

5,438
5,270
5,324

77.9
78.2
78.3

55.8
55.8
55.6

54.9
54.4
53.4

111,014
111,344
111,455

7,964
7,886
7,791

3,691
3,606
3,553

2,877
2,858
2,832

1,396
1,422
1,406

6,473
6,397
6,248

5,211
5,458
5,180

78.2
78.2
78.1

55.8
55.9
55.9

54.3
54.7
54.3

111,806
112,334
112,300

7,557
7,573
7,308

3,454
3,456
3,422

2,733
2,700
2,634

1,370
1,417
1,252

6,083
6,053
6,000

5,104
5,058
4,979

78.1
78.2
78.0

56.0
56.2
56.2

54.2
55.2
53.6

119,890
120,306
119,963

February

6,447
6,825
6,861

119,363
119,907
119,608

January

112,639
113,050
112,872

7,251
7,256
7,091

3,323
3,258
3,118

2,680
2,661
2,671

1,248
1,337
1,302

5,852
5,812
5,636

5,154
5,016
4,986

78.0
77.9
77.9

56.3
56.3
56.2

54.0
56.3
54.4

7,177
7,090
6,978

3,174
3,135
3,063

2,615
2,620
2,611

1,388
1,335
1,304

5,725
5,684
5,601

5,067
5,241
5,004

78.0
78.0
77.8

56.4
56.5
56.6

55.1
54.8
55.5

7,046
6,938
6,801

3,154
3,071
3,089

2,581
2,635
2,411

1,312
1,232
1,301

5,603
5,549
5,498

5,145
5,254
5,106

77.9
78.2
77.9

56.7
56.8
56.6

56.0
54.9
53.9

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

November

120,387
120,594

December

120,722

113,210
113,504
113,744

121,175
121,348
120,903

114,129
114,409
114,103

October

1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 5 1 .

APRIL 1988




OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Q |

State and local governmentx

"ederal Governmen
Year
and

500. Surplus
or deficit

501. Receipts

Q

RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES

502. Expenditures

510. Surplus
or deficit

511. Receipts

Advance measures of defense activity

512. Expenditures

month

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

DEFENSE INDICATORS

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

(Mil. dol.)

525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

548. Manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

1986
January

-196.1

807.6

1,003.7

62.1

608.1

546.1

28,411
30,247
30,969

12,843
9,715
13,822

185,822
188,008
190,756

8,502
9,193
12,214

-23CK2

816^9

1,047.1

55! i

6li'5

556.4

29,758
30,267
33,056

13,136
11,052
12,949

188,903
189,004
193,207

8,071
9,036
8,314

-203.7

832.4

1,036.1

59.6

626*2

566.7

31,199
29,968
30,678

13,810
11,432
12,315

196,185
198,635
199,295

10,062
7,900
10,304

-188.7

852.5

l,04K2

50.6

629.1

578.5

28,383
30,341
26,583

9,450
11,866
11,581

198,408
198,337
197,769

10,031
7,738

-170.5

879^3

1,049.8

41.0

632^1

591 - i

25,911
34,669
28,986

10,617
12,546
12,167

196,585
199,440
199,308

r5,813
r7,344
r9,583

-139.2

922.9

1,062.1

50.6

651.3

600.7

33,794
32,801
30,475

12,138
12,103
12,748

200,411
202,504
204,177

rlO,288
9,441
10,577

-135.8

February

923.0

1,058.8

46.5

657.6

611.1

31,867
32,619
34,065

13,667
12,881
13,609

207,148
209,556
215,074

9,923
9,521
9,112

r-160.2

r937.6

l,097.*8

r37.9

r663.5

625 *6

29,233
30,794
24,532

10,613
9,383
11,912

212,355
212,086
205,974

10,001
9,739
9,048

pi,091!9

(NA)

(NA)

p635!4

31,157
p33,243
(NA)

7,871
pll,080
(NA)

208,366
p210,637
(NA)

r9,104
r8,590
p8,336

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

7,827

1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1988
January
February

(NA)

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

S e note on page 80.
e
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1

Based on national income and product accounts.

90



APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Q j DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continue j
National defense

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year

557.

and

industrial

month

Index of

production,
defense and

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

purchases

570. Employment, defense
products industries

space equipment

Defense Department
personnel

564.

Federal

577. Military
on active
duty (u)

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment

defense pur-

goods and

chases as a

services,

percent of

national

GNP

defense
(Ann.

(1977 = 100)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Thous.)

565. National

purchases of

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

rate,

bil. dol.)

(Percent)

1986
January

178.9

February

178.0
178.6

31,787
31,471
32,467

160,175
161,009
164,969

20,152
21,586
23,342

7,779
8,359
8,254

1,570
1,572
1,572

2,157
2,160
2,160

1,103
1,087
1,084

266.6

6.4

179.8
180.2
180.7

32,962
33,329
33,549

164,580
164,951
164,147

22,101
22,921
21,954

8,460
8,665
9,118

1,582
1,589
1,566

2,150
2,150
2,143

1,081
1,072
1,060

278^2

6*6

182.4
183.7
184.6

33,618
33,810
34,206

165,201
164,505
165,918

22,538
21,714
23,886

9,008
8,596
8,891

1,594
1,592
1,595

2,150
2,161
2,169

1,059
1,052
1,072

287*6

6." 7

185.6
185.5
186.2

34,482
34,330
34,005

164,584
164,887
162,098

22,324
21,168
22,512

9,161
9,728
10,527

1,597
1,597
1,597

2,177
2,181
2,178

1,069
1,063
1,059

279.0

6.5

187.3
188.9
188.6

34,240
r34,332
34,093

159,557
rl58,477
rl58,456

22,243
24,096
23,259

r8,354
r8,424
r9,604

1,600
1,599
1,597

2,179
2,172
2,168

1,061
1,067
1,070

287.5

6.6

189.2
189.3
188.6

34,716
34,866
34,849

159,984
160,188
161,328

23,593
22,760
24,046

8,760
9,237
9,437

1,594
1,596
1,594

2,158
2,153
2,151

1,072
1,068
1,070

294*5

6.6

June
July
August
September

188.7
189.1
189.8

35,599
36,065
36,311

162,345
163,071
162,659

22,858
24,340
21,513

8,906
8,795
9,524

1,596
1 ,598
1,597

2,158
2,167
2,174

1,074
1,076
1,090

299*0

6.*6

190.3
188.7
rl88.9

36,868
37,609
37,026

163,526
164,025
162,979

25,816
21,276
26,329

9,134
9,240
10,094

1,599
1,598
1,600

2,172
2,174
2,167

1,090
1,087
1 ,083

299.8

6.5

r190.1
rl90.3
pl89.8

r37,103
r37,302
(NA)

rl63,650
rl63,740
pl62,466

20,786
r23,441
p23,717

r8,433
r8,500
p9,610

rl,606
1,604
(NA)

2,166
r2,162
p2,143

p297.7

p6.4

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May

October
November
December
1988
January
February
March

pi,077
(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.

APRIL 1988



91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

I

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Q

602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments (u)

604. Exports ot domestic
agricultural products

|

MERCHANDISE TRADE

612. General imports ©

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products

616. Imports of automobiles and parts

Year
and
month

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1986

17,041
17,401
18,557

2,320
2,283
2,135

3,854
4,294
3,740

30,090
27,521
29,403

4,978
4,254
3,578

5,044
5,378
5,018

18,001
18,270
19,092

2,043
1,960
1,819

3,981
3,644
3,582

30,898
30,034
30,942

2,084
2,718
2,731

5,044
5,054
5,535

17,346
16,895
17,530

2,062
2,231
2,111

3,585
4,091
3,812

31,848
29,482
30,808

2,483
2,225
2,435

6,242
6,280
4,909

19,562
18,411
18,523

2,447
2,204
2,352

3,932
4,138
4,227

32,771
32,413
29,854

2,155
2,788
2,299

5,790
7,156
5,483

February

16,753
19,359

March

21,775

1,926
2,047
2,157

3,452
4,404
4,098

27,466
32,307
33,197

2,269
3,598
3,513

4,882
6,322
5,329

April

20,496
20,781
21,126

2,234
2,410
2,445

4,122
4,176
4,338

31,983
33,313
35,266

2,842
3,685
3,375

5,516
6,093
5,823

21,005
20,221
20,985

2,956
2,520
2,625

4,260
4,420
4,717

35,844
34,320
33,573

4,125
4,574
3,439

5,800
6,008
5,307

21,752
23,798
24,801

2,593
2,409
2,472

4,407
5,371
5,371

37,714
35,474
35,444

3,780
3,292
3,158

6,776
6,342
6,560

22,330
23,559
(NA)

2,634
2,936
(NA)

(NA)

33,218
35,818
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1987
January

May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.

92



APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Q

|

GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)

Merchandise, adjustedx

Goods and services
Year

667. Balance

669. Imports

668. Exports

622. Balance

618. Exports

Income on investment
620. Imports

651. U.S. investment abroad

and
month

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

652. Foreign
investment in
the United States

(Mil. dol.)

1986
January

-30,019

92,134

122,153

-34,978

53,878

88,856

24,076

17,651

-29,588

93,540

123,128

-33,651

56,928

90,579

22,013

17,426

-32,249

93,241

125,490

-37,115

56,534

93,649

21,333

15,994

-33,839

93,891

127,730

-38,595

57 , 0 2 1

95,616

20,787

16,295

-33,834

98,728

132,562

-38,920

56,769

95,689

24,963

19,450

-38,274

100,070

138,344

-39,74?

59,875

99,617

22,464

20,875

-40,517

105,662

146,179

-40,365

65,110

105,475

22,689

22,395

p-34,589

pll5,662

pl50,25i

P-40J74

p69,060

plO9,234

p29,657

p22,569

(NA)

February

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
Juiy
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Balance of payments basis: Hxcludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts
of Defense purchases (imports).

APRIL 1988



(exports) and Department

93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q j

Year
and
month

47. United States,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

721. OECD1
European countries, index of
industrial
production

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

725. West

726. France,
index of industrial production

Germany, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

723. Canada,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

1986
January
February
March

126.4
125.5
123.9

112
113
112

144.6
144.8
144.8

113
113
113

107
105
105

108
110
109

108.4
110.9
113.8

127.6
128.1
125.5

April
May
June

124.7
124.3
124.1

115
111
114

144.4
144.2
144.5

117
112
116

109
104
108

111
109
109

114.9
108.7
113.9

128.9
126.9
125.5

July
August
September

124.8
124.9
124.5

115
114
114

144.2
141.9
145.8

117
114
114

109
109
109

111
111
111

111.1
110.0
109.8

126.8
125.6
126.3

October
November
December

125.3
125.7
126.8

114
114
113

143.8
141.9
rl42.0

114
114
112

109
107
107

111
111
rllO

111.0
112.2
111.1

126.2
126.2
128.5

January
February
March

126.2
127.1
127.4

112
115
115

rl40.9
rl40.0
rl42.1

111
rll4
113

105
109
109

rllO
rll2
rll2

rill.8
rll5.2
rll7.6

128.0
129.2
129.9

April
May
June

127.4
128.2
129.1

115
116
rll6

rl40.4
rl37.9
rl44.0

114
116
114

108
110
111

rll2
113
rll3

rll5.5
rll9.7
rll6.2

129.9
130.7
132.0

July
August
September

130.6
131.2
131.0

rll5
rll6
116

rl45.5
rl43.9
rl48.2

rll2
118
116

110
110
111

rll3
115
114

rll5.6
rlll.O
rll5.1

131.8
134.2
135.0

October
November
December

132.5
133.2
rl33.9

117
117
pll7

rl50.8
rl5O.l
153.0

116
116
117

rllO
111
112

rll5
115
115

rl20.1
rll8.7
114.0

rl35.8
rl36.7
rl37.2

rl34.4
134.4
pl34.6

(NA)

pl54.0
(NA)

pll7
(NA)

pll2
(NA)

pll5
(NA)

pl24.0
(NA)

pl37.4
(NA)

1987

1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

94



APRIL 1988

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Q j

United States
Year

320. Index ©

West Germany

Japan

320c. Change

738. Index ©

CONSUMER PRICES

738c. Change

and

over 6-month

month

735. Index ©

over 6-month

1

1

spans

spans

percent)

(1982-84 = 100)

735c. Change

736. Index ©

over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,

(1982-84 = 100)

France

percent)

(Ann. rate,

(1982-84 = 100)

percent)

(1982-84 = 100)

United H ngdom

736c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index©

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,

(1982-84 = 100)

percent)

1986

109.6
109.3
108.8

0.6
-0.2
0.0

105.0
104.9
104.8

1.2
0.4
0.0

105.5
105.2
104.9

-0.4
-0.8
-1.3

116.1
115.9
116.1

1.4
1.2
1.2

113.1
113.5
113.7

3.2
2.9
1.8

June

108.6
108.9
109.5

-0.5
0.4
1.7

105.1
105.4
104.9

-0.6
0.0
-0.6

104.9
104.9
105.0

-1.9
-1.1
-0.6

116.6
116.9
117.2

1.6
2.4
3.3

114.8
115.0
114.9

1.1
1.1
2.1

July
August
September

109.5
109.7
110.2

2.6
2.8
2.2

104.6
104.4
104.9

-1.7
-0.4
-0.6

104.5
104.2
104.4

-1.1
-1.5
-0.8

117.4
117.5
118.0

2.9
2.9
3.1

114.6
114.9
115.5

2.8
4.2
5.9

October

110.3
110.4
110.5

3.7
4.1
4.4

105.0
104.5
104.3

-1.9
-2.3
-0.2

104.1
104.0
104.2

0.0
0.2
0.0

118.2
118.4
118.5

4.5
4.3
3.6

115.7
116.7
117.1

6.8
6.9
5.6

111.2
111.6
112.1

5.0
5.1
5.3

103.9
103.9
104.3

2.3
0.4
1.3

104.6
104.7
104.7

1.2
1.5
1.2

119.6
119.8
120.0

4.1
4.1
3.4

117.5
118.0
118.2

5.4
3.8
2.4

112.7
113.1
113.5

4.4
4.5
4.1

105.2
105.4
105.2

2.1
3.3
1.9

104.9
105.0
105.2

1.7
1.7
1.0

120.6
120.9
121.1

2.4
2.7
2.5

119.6
119.7
119.7

2.2
2.0
2.7

113.8
114.4
115.0

3.9
3.7
3.6

104.7
104.8
105.7

-0.9
1.0
0.0

105.2
105.1
104.9

0.8
0.4
0.8

121.4
121.7
121.7

2.3
2.3
2.8

119.6
120.0
120.3

3.7
4.6
4.8

115.3
115.4
115.4

3.7
3.2
3.7

105.7
105.2
105.1

0.0
-1.7
(NA)

105.0
105.0
105.2

-0.2
0.0
1.0

122.0
122.2
122.2

2.2
2.1
(NA)

120.9
121.5
121.4

4.2
4.2
4.0

January
February
March
April
May

November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1988

115.7
116.0
116.5

January
February
March

104.8
104.6
(NA)

105.4
105.6
105.7

122.4
122.7
(NA)

121.4
121.9
122.3

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.

Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

APRIL 1988




9
5

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

I

£ | CONSUMER PRICES—Continued

Italy
Year
and
month

737. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

Q

Canada

737c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

733. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

733c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

STOCK PRICES

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ©

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices @

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

1986
January
February
March

125.9
126.8
127.2

6.8
6.6
5.3

111.4
111.8
112.1

4.4
4.8
2.9

226.5
238.6
252.7

936.5
964.8
1,052.8

327.1
320.8
329.6

438.3
468.6
514.8

647.8
690.0
755.0

303.8
343.9
430.2

321.2
322.7
344.3

April
May
June

127.6
128.1
128.6

5.5
5.5
4.8

112.2
112.8
112.9

3.2
3.6
3.6

258.9
259.4
266.8

1,116.7
1,144.6
1,203.9

345.8
318.7
313.8

590.3
600.2
537.2

780.6
756.2
764.9

512.3
580.0
485.1

347.9
352.8
348.6

July
August
September

128.6
128.8
129.2

4.0
3.3
3.4

113.8
114.1
114.1

4.5
4.5
5.4

261.3
266.5
259.2

1,262.7
1,354.5
1,361.4

293.2
316.3
327.2

580.0
605.1
603.4

755.5
750.0
767.2

483.2
562.7
554.7

331.7
342.2
336.6

October
November
December

129.9
130.4
130.8

3.9
3.0
3.7

114.7
115.3
115.5

4.3
4.1
4.8

258.2
266.6
270.4

1,280.3
1,297.0
1,406.4

322.1
325.2
331.9

609.7
616.6
652.2

750.7
774.1
779.4

557.1
546.3
514.8

343.4
344.3
346.5

January
February
March

131.6
132.1
132.6

4.2
4.7
4.5

115.8
116.3
116.8

4.4
4.7
4.2

287.7
305.6
318.1

1,492.7
1,577.3
1,675.5

308.8
285.2
288.5

642.1
660.1
708.1

841.0
917.9
973.1

526.7
502.9
501.9

378.4
395.4
422.5

April
May
June

132.9
133.4
133.9

4.8
5.9
6.5

117.3
118.0
118.3

5.1
5.2
4.7

314.7
314.5
327.8

1,856.7
1,937.3
1,965.7

304.2
302.3
313.7

725.9
703.6
664.6

957.2
1,042.0
1,098.5

533.2
533.4
P521.5

420.0
416.4
422.6

July
August
September

134.3
134.6
135.6

6.8
6.4
5.5

119.2
119.3
119.3

4.5
3.8
4.1

337.3
358.3
346.6

1,806.9
1,902.6
1,888.0

327.7
340.7
330.0

691.9
704.9
729.8

1,155.7
1,102.2
1,121.9

p508.1
p469.8
p459.6

455.4
451.3
440.9

October
November
December

136.8
137.2
137.4

5.1
4.0
3.4

119.7
120.2
120.3

3.1
2.9
3.5

304.8
266.5
262.1

1,831.8
1,676.8
1,654.9

306.1
234.2
224.2

632.8
508.5
423.5

1,028.6
795.0
810.9

p460.1
p379.8
p375.0

341.2
336.5
357.1

272.5
280.8
289.1

pi,660.3
pi,771.4
rpl,874.2

213.0
223.3
rp237.4

465.0
p501.1
rp520.0

864.2
859.2
rp889.0

p534.5
p509.2
rp569.5

345.4
362.1
374.4

p287.5

pi,951.5

p235.5

p517.3

p876.6

p576.5

p381.2

f.

.

1987

1988
January
February
March

138.1
138.5
139.1

120.5
121.0
121.6

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.

Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

96



APRIL 1988

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Jan.

Year

Feb.

Mar.

MANUFACTURERS
1953. ..
1954. ..
1955 . . .
1956 . . .
1957 . . .
1958. ..
1959 ...
1960...
1961. . .
1962. ..
1963. . .
1964. . .
1965...
1966 . . .
1967. ..
1968. . .
1969. . .
1970...
197 1. . .
1972. . .
1973...
1974. . .
1975 ...
1976.. .
1977. . .
1978. . .
1979...
1980. . .
1981. . .
1982...
1983. . .
1984...
1985...
1986. . .
1987...

14.45
9.99
3.48
5.72
5 . 16
2.94
5.68
5.54
4 . 09
.7.46
8.19
0.40
2 . 12
5.51

14.21
0.31
3.92
4.61
5.64
2 .47
6.97
.5.97
.4.68
.7.81

7 .41
9.26
7.92
9 .85
2 .32
40.60
5.7 1
1.23
5.53
6.73
3.6 1
8.91
83.46

7.30
9.99
7.69
50.10
33.06
-1.15
^5.32

8.24
1.27
6.14
8.98
9 .02

9.90
7.50
100.23
98.44
101.26

0.03
2 .44
5.80

t0.47
-7 . 7 2
S6.45

)6 . 4 0
11.65
S3.20
13 . 0 5

13.34
9.72
4.96
5.04
5.14
2.50
16.65
5.2 1
4 .49
7.05
9.01
9.75
2 .76
6 .83
50.08
:7 . 4 3
!9 . 7 9
13.21
• 2.69
•5.20
58.47
.68
S8.66
8.54
84.05
79.2 1
83.25
81.50
80.87
105.44
97.45
100.94

Apr.

May

June

6 .42
5.73
2.54
4.59
5.96
4.89
7.59
8.62
8.66
2 . 04
5.15
5 .54
8.6 1
9.14
9.55
9 .04
1.92
9 .30

43 .59
45.91
42.92
37 .30
49 .72
45 .76
46 .5 1
50.32
55.85
61.68
68.19
79. 05
77.42
82.29
90.46
82.68
87.16
102.37
127.48
143.23
122.12
152.78
180.75
2 14.52
238.47
2 16.45
261.2 1

27.57
31 . 5 2
29.12
33 . 6 6

27.31
29.80
27.80
28.75
34.42

27.41
29.14
28. 02
29.29
34.29

27.11
29.60
27.68
29.6 1
34.21

27 . 4 4
29.39
26.90
29.56
34.92

28.64
30.67
27 . 8 3
30.66
36.91

45 .96
40.86
50.42
59 . 36
7 1.16
78.16
75.61
87 .35
80.89
83.48
97 .24
96.25
98.18

48.83
40.74
51.01
59.71
71.58
80.43
69.38
86 . 9 7
77 . 4 4
82.57
99 . 4 5
98.26
97.30

48.44
40.52
51.35
6 1.68
7 1.78
79.88
7 1.46

49 . 6 5
43 . 8 8
53.45
60.63
70.47
78.30
78.14
87.17

50.90
43 . 2 7
51.76
61.44
73.85
76 . 8 2
75.95
85.14

48.74
43 . 9 8
52.16
62.70
74.77
78.84
82 . 0 9
83.9 1

45.96
43 . 3 2
52.38
64.95
78.43
78.85
84.27
79.50

5.58
4.35
4.29
4. 14
9.70
8.46
3.67
9.58

.49
4.27
56 .86
7.41
8.29
9 . 09
86.31
76.99

136.2
120.17
142 .93
171.84
198.55
244.61
245.87
248.82

88 . 9 4
97 . 0 8
102.64
97.90

86 . 8 2
99.60
98.44

98.46
101.20
96.30

91.50
96.49
101.74
102.95

96.60
95.96
101.7 1

5.29
9.77
5.59

99.64
100.25
104. 14
105 .68

239.64
301.81
294.87
301.22

254.99
293.77
297.15
293.38

80.63
75.98
96.01
92 . 8 7
94.73

82.16
79,36
100.61
91.84
94.33

48.69

0.62

3.67
35.97
0.27
4.43
5.66

9.92
6.02
0.53
7.41
5.54
9 .83
5.12
2.52
7.65
0 . 33
8.10
3 .64
1 . 37
9.62
81.59
89.80
99 . 2 4
98.56

86.02
81.38
81 .84
92.6 1
90.63
91.58

.91
.63

. 11
.86
'.29
.28
'.79
.00
100.66
78.75
90.88
77.67
80.64
94.80
92 . 2 6
90.68

46.83

25« .22

179.61
184.89
169.04
159.64
192 .24
183.69
189.22
208.66
224.87
248. 15
279.37
313.75
309 .66
337.30
358.84
328.72
359 .90
420.84
512.64
561.78
505.36
616.61
733.86
868.58
953.44
952.75
1002 .32

265.20
294.55
301.38
298.93

291.53
295.98
301.44
305.64

1051 .36
1186.11
1194.84
1 199. 17

.05
.29
.13
.37

TOTAL FOR PERIOD

5 1.00
48.25
43.91
40.56
50.04
46 . 0 5
47.18
50.18
54.48
61.03
66 . 5 6
76 . 4 7
75.10
74.29
76 . 0 8
69.88
70.41
79.37
93 . 2 2
91.56
6 8 . 80
82 . 16
92.48
98.34

34.43
41 . 16
52.64
46 .63
41 .84
41.31
47.60
hi .11
48.64
53.35
56.50
62.40
69.22
77.41
7 1.40
77 . 00

35 .43
44.5 1
52.30
46 . 50
39.76
42.70
46 .79
43.42
48.85
53.37
56.48
60.08
69.54
73.84
7 1.49

35 .26
39.10
52.11
49 . 30
41.52
46 . 2 2
43.72
4 4 . 06
50.93
53.01
56.25
61.29
7 1.35
72.62
72.90

35.33
4.07
4.20
9.16
38.23
3 .82
7 . 37

152.18
106.48
147.77
148.30
142.70
115.59
147.74
138.21
129.52
156.65
168.26
178.76
197.59
226 .29
208.92

144.7
106.6
150.3
147 .
132.
113.
148.
135.
138.
150.68
167.5
182.47
199.60
226.30
218.06

116.40
114.96
154.43
150.51
126.22
122.7 1
138.76
140.36
145.00
155.32
168.53
186 . 14
205.03
225.75
2 16.64

106.02
127.68
158.6 1
144 .96
119.51
132.74
137.88
132.06
152.45
162.13
168.27
186.18
214.00
218.61
223.21
235.01

66.91
69.88
80.46
92.52
92.21
73.22
82 . 0 3
90.

69. 07
72 .48
84.65
92 .83
87 .04
73.92
81.89

62 .48
70.92
84.30
96.18
81 .06
72.20
81.7 1

6 4 . 19
73.70
86 .66
98.48
79.69
73.43
84.31

1.36
4.93
9.72
2 .02
2.16
2.69
7.60

2 10.44
218.86
229.79
280.87
280.54
206.04
233.12

207.20
209.85
237.33
280.80
277.19
2 07 . 7 1
246.03

205 . 0 1
212.86
2 4 4 . 12
278.21
27 1 . 0 2
22 1 . 5 2
249.04

295 .77

80.29
90.23
77.28
86.60
92.37
96.2 0
91.15

87 .02
90.05
77.73
84.37
94.77
9 2.26
92.72

83 . 9 2
87.50
73.33
84.27
93.50
94.75
89.50

100.23

33.00
44.77

33.00
44.43

34.69
45.32

33.17
46 . 16

34 . 15
44.77

33.32
44.88
39.75
41.52
42 .90
50.04
52.83
56.67
62.16
59.34
63.50
67.59
61.7 1
63.83
69.94
80.32

58.44
72.52
81.23
83.26
87.81
75.18
75.55
69.67
70.43
81.01
78.5 1
79. 16

6 1 .30
72.62
80 . 09
87 . 0 6
84.18
69.96
77.60
69.12
71.54
81.38
78.64
81 . 0 7

34.38
43.48
40.01
42.88
44 . 64
49 . 0 0
52.15
56.91
6 1.80
60.42
64.74
67.45
62.29
63.06
70.36
81 . 2 9
79.08
6 1.90
73.58
79.94
85 . 9 4
86.23
66.74
77.14
69.03
73.01
81.11
79.32

36 . 4 2
43 . 7 7
40.69
4 4 . 01
43.83
47 .5 0
52.52
57.37
62 . 3 4
60.84
64.69
67.18
63.66
62.48
7 1.72
80.35
78.40
62 . 8 3
74.01
81.23
85 . 3 3
84.47
66.77
77.40
68.56
74.45
78.96
78.29
80.38

37 .66
43 .03
41 .03
42.55
45.32
49 .46
54.36
58.76
6 1.21
60.46
63.80
68.69
61 . 6 6
64.22
7 1.21
79.94
76 . 2 4
66 . 4 3
74.71
80.34
83 . 8 6
82.52
69.66
7 6 . 12
68.56
75.13
80.91
78.23
79.18

38.42
40.50
40.98
44.28
45 . 8 8
47 , 7 8
52.69
57 . 4 2
6 1 .49
63.13
62 . 2 7
67.01
6 1.11
63.52
73.7 1
79.63
74.70
66 . 4 0
73.30
80.84
86 . 0 0
80.42
70.67
73 . 4 7
66.52
76.27
80.20
78.96
80 . 0 4

series

contains

revisions

104.57

105.14

281.31

296 .58

2 .61

281.67

245 .06

261.14

198.03
219.55
260.68
286.68
232 .91
218.32
253.62
2 8 3.95
312.45
281.66
274.86

9.26
5.99
4.94
7.33
7.58

241.74
235.65
289.06
278.26
281.69

2 36. 3 3
249 .08
279.78
279.09
273.41

227 .20
257 .30
279.81
282 .63
277.81

226 . 34
281.48
280.73
281.90
282 .38

1 2.74

90.65
80.63
7 1.70
91.98
94.57
89.42
92.32

91.60
81 . 0 4
7 5 . 38
93.5 1
91.22
95.15
92.48

90.20
85 . 8 9
7 6 . 14
88.66
91.54
95.62
95.59

32 .86
46 .00

This

98 .5

47 .90
46.35
39.08
44 . 06
46 .46
4 4 . 15
50.92
5 4 . 14
56 .54
63.31
73.54
77.17
80.74
88.2 1
89 . 39
80.59
93 . 17
113.84
133.67
133.03
131.94
163.53
196.50
236.42
236.40
254 .25
236.07

38.49
36.81
5 0 . 83
56 . 4 6
43 . 0 5
4i.24
44.31
47.11
49.29
50.99
55 . 73
59.78
67.67
73.48
73.38
73.97

99.53

Annual

29 . 8 9
5 .76
7 .26
1.10
0.37
6 .76
7 . 06
8.53

43 . 4 8
36.99
50.96
47 . 4 2
41.33
4 0 . 16
46 . 8 5
45 . 4 8
47 .07
50.98
56 . 3 0
63.96
68.14
7 4 . 86
7 1 .86
73 .26
77.08
69.03
70.50
79.01
92 .86
91.77
74.38
85.12
89.95
96.01

NEW ORDERS IN 1982 DOLLARS, CONSUMER GOODS AND MATERIALS
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

This series contains revisions beginning with 1982.
'isions beginning with 1948.

45 . 3
45 .9
37 .9
49 .3
46 .7
43. 2
52.3
56.0

DOLLARS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 2
DOLLARS)

33.49
45.99
39.98
40.58
45.62
49 .39
50.80
57.65
64.49
59.02
64.49
67.94
62 . 06
63.06
69.76
83.16




5.74
15.78
3.58
5 . 34
4.73
4.72
7.01
7.70
8.90
0.84
4.54
5 .64
6.39
9 .03
9.7 1
6 . 12
1 .25
7 .87

IV Q

TOTAL FOR PERIOD

15.74
14 . 8 4
12 .96
14.13
15.77
14.54
16 . 32
17.82
18.98
20.43
23.85
25.99
25.74
30.04
30.13
25.43
30.00
36.67

9.27

82.52
86.08

40.47

15.74
14.78
13.64
13.63
16 . 0 4
15.95
16.30
17.82
18.93
21.15
23.74
27.25

52.12
48.84
46 . 8 8
3 8 . 11
49.84
44.99
43.38
51.05
57.10
58.60
66.73
77.55
68.87
78.96
78.74
69.28
72.30
77.22
95.29
91.69
65.66
8C.64
8 9 . 15
96 . 39
107.07
90.32

60.
71 .

9.96

15 . 0 4
17.73
14.03
13.57
14.93
15.83
16.5 1
17.03
18.67
20.2 1
23.2 1
25.86

8.52
7.74
8.58
38.02
0.82
7 .25
3.94
53.34
6.52
9.43
5.81
4.8 0
0.26
4.79
8.93
0.29
3.40
6 .87
13.10
(3.63
.9.29
7.84
86 . 4 5
94.05
104.95
94.97

3 5.69
45.2 5
4 2.40
38. 04
47 .01
47 .08
51.99
57.22
60.98
59.93
64.66
68.24
63.68
6 5.86
68.86
82.52
79.77
61 . 08
69. 34
78.34
80.79
88.66
81.2 1
73.40
65.95
68.95
81.78
81 .45
81.63

9.94

14.98
14.75
13.43
13.17
15.79
15.28
15.72
17.03
18.86
2 1.62
23.37
26.28

9.26

32 .
42.

9.99

Q

9.7 1

48.16

31.11
43 .31
42.9 7

Dec.

10.89

78.95
80.31
92 . 4 4
93.55
92 . 6 3

1953. ..
1954. ..
1955...
1956. ..
1957. . .
8. . .
9. . .
0. . .
1. . .
2. . .
3. . .
4. . .
5 ...
6. . .
7 ...
8. . .
9. ..
0. . .
1 ...
2...
3. . .
4. . .
5 ...
6...
7. ..
1978...
9. ..
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983. . .
1984...
1985 . . .
1986...
1987.. .

Nov.

12.35

1.49

8. MANUFACTURERS

Oct.

INDUSTRIES 1

13.20
10.
14.84
15.06
14,23
13.30
16.86
15.52
15.80
16.76
1-8.2 0
20.63
22 .76
26.76

47.13
5 1.72
47 . 2 4
39.46
47.08
45.97
42.20
52.26
54.64
60.73
65.05
73.94
69.79
75.31
77 . 4 0
70.87
7 3 . 16
75.70
92.48
95 . 2 2
7 1. 09
74.64
87 . 14
90.87
102 . 4 8
96.38

1964. . .
1965. . .
1966. . .
1967...
1968...
1969.. .
1970. . .
1971...
1972. . .
1973.. .
1974...
1975. . .
1976. . .
1977. . .
1978...
1979. . .
1980. . .
1981...
1982 . . .
1983...
1984...
1985 . . .
1986...
1987 . . .

Sept.

13.58
9.75
14.5 1
15.16
14.58
12.20
16 . 0 2
15.22
15.46
1 6 . 89
18.99
20.59
22 . 4 4
26.00

52.53

1963. . .

Aug.

13.69
10.17
14.24
15.69
14.11
11.80
16.84
15 . 0 2
15.25
16.67
18.66
20.46
22 . 9 9
26.29

7. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS IN 198
(BILLIONS 0
1953 ...
1954...
1955 . . .
1956.. .
1957.. .
1958. . .
1959...
1960...
1961 . . .
1962 . . .

July

NEW ORDERS IN CURRENT D O L L A R S , DURABLE GOODS
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

5 19.38
455.73
6 11.12
591.37
521.01
484.7 7
572.38
546 .26
56 5,9 5
624.78
672.59
733.55
816.22
896.95
866 .83
911.93
932.81
820.68
861.12
97 1.92
1126 .56
1061.66
853.59
981.81
1090.86
1 186 . 1 1
1181.34
1062.73
1040.69
931.61
1023.51
1129.38
1121.88
1115.29

INDUSTRIES3
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
36 .35
43.55

38.52
45.18

41 .29
44.30

96.72
32.28

1.44
4.85
1.31
5.01
2 .00
7.78
6.75
7.53
80. 10
82.66

39 .37
40.86
40.03
43.79
46 .83
5 0.09
52.52
57 .76
61.91
59.61
67.98
6 8.48
57 .76
64.39
75.81
81.28
70.63
67.67
71.17
80.60
87 . 2 4
81.15
7 8 . 09
70.02
64.99
7 9.24
78.79
80.26
81.25

35.99
41.30
39.83
39.64
46 . 2 9
46.80
50.02
5 4.00
60.12
60.81
62.31
68.94
66 . 2 4
57.74
66.39
77.58
82.16
68.14
67.41
75 . 0 4
82.13
87 . 8 7
79.53
77.54
6 8 . 38
64.43
79.71
79.33
80.23
79.54

33.94
40.95
42.81
39.55
47 . 9 1
45.73
49.94
56 . 32
6 1.67
60.25
66.53
67.19
65.78
63.28
67 . 0 8
78.66
77.99
61.16
67.58
76.89
83.89
8 9 . 12
78.38
77.12
68.5 1
64.94
81.49
78.70
79.83
85 . 3 4

beginning with

1956.

5.92
4.05

2.34
1.55

.11
.50

This

series

23.91
03.03
36.89
24.86
16.89
39.08
45.63
54.03
72.55
87 . 6 4
78.43
93.69
04.15
8 8 . 10
9 4 . 12
08.72
48.05
35.00
80.07
12.88
37.68
46 . 5 7
62.55

100.69
134.52
122.59
119.89
1 0 4 . 12
132.13
120.45
128 . 4 1
131.37
146.54
157.50
170.95
186.30
180.60
192 . 9 3
202 . 2 2
187.66
189.37
2 12.02
241 . 9 6
234.61
186.03
220.2 1
241 . 2 6
258.33
254.88

103.24
134.98
12 0 . 2 1
116.66
115.62
125 . 8 7
123.56
130.59
137.50
145.52
162.61
172.95
184.05
184.20
192.42
203.91
184.69
191.43
220.03
239.07
223.16
200.11
220.78
242.62
254.7 1
244.25

25 . 0 8
03.08
09.52
45.38
38.94
41.53

232.14
2 06.7 1
2 19.00
241.45
236.25
240.37

221.59
202.86
2 2 8 . 15
238.64
237.29
241.88

116.16
133.03
123.28
107.39
12 1.62
123.50
119.22
137.99
139.36
150.05
162 . 8 4
179.55
182.97
188.45
204.11
200.50
197.86
232.05
241.43
199.93
202 . 6 6
223.10
246.62
264.23
239 . 0 6
232.75
206 . 9 1
194.36
240.44
236 . 8 2
240.32
246.13

44.39
18.39
8 8 . 09
13.88
47.31
87.74
36.98
96 . 0 0
40.96
731.68
83 . 15
10.78
39.23
72.78
72 . 8 2
70.5 1
92.70
68.87
76 . 9 7
68.18
23
1023 . 8 4
1000.74
888.32
885 . 7 2
807.01
897 . 11
962.29
952.80
969.91

contains

97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
36.

Jan.

1953. ..
1954...
1955 . . .
1956. ..
1957 ...
1958. ..
1959 ...
1960...
1961. ..
1962 ...
1963 . . .
1964...
1965...
1966 ...
1967. ..
1968...
1969. . .
1970...
197 1...
1972 ...
1973. . .
1974...
1975 ...
1976. . .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980. . .
1981 . . .
1982 . . .
1983. . .
1984...
1985...
1986. . .
1987 . . .
36.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug. Sept.

CHANGE IN M A N U F A C T U R I N G AND TRADE INVENTORIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S )
11.04
-27.84
11.82
25 . 6 4
-6.58
- 4 6 . 10
6 8 . 09
-8.17
-16.97
24.28
27.10
1 4 . 30
33.17
60.43
10.38
12 . 0 6
25.96
-14.10
27.74
8.63
65.09
33.92
-86 .59
28.28
21.31
33.10
30.84
-19.67
27 . 3 4
-59 . 10
-9 .07
89.60
10.06
15.18

112.82
-45.91
5.64
26.65
-6 .47
-75.30
37.92
-5 .82

-15.26
42.6 1
22.10
40.54
63.50

5 1.73
50.35
36.37
24.52

-20.81
60.04
30.68

76.26
31.60
-62.84
2 .26
39 . 4 7
43 . 9 9

50.21
-5.57
-20.23
-39.59
-32 .53
56.50
23.24

22.18

-1.55
-44.20
36.01
-0.55
-13.38
-30.85
44.63
-32.12
-4.91
5.14
36.18
19 . 02
35 .74
67.93
1.78
10.58
28.13
-6.19
32.64
12.11
78.86
31.92
-77.09
24.50
17.98
7 1.94
15.26
9.78
-8.72
-9.53
-35.57
66.68
-15 .46
43 .63

23.46
-35.56
-6.49
36 .47
2.83
-27 .55
32.69
-44.06
13.5 1
-31.15
26.65
25.39
2.50
35 .88
17.60
22 .42
24.96
25 . 16
-6.19
15.02
62.23
25 .30
-44.47
20.69
34.09
65 . 6 6
50.09
9 . 19
-13.96
-2 .22
4.43
86.11
-3.53
11.26

10.62
19.74
16 . 0 2
-6 .98
-12 .44
-1.38
-10.69
20.74
9.70
19.20
21.42
27.17
53.34
9.46
26.35

35 . 8 6
-17.58
-15.47
34.85
56.02
58.55
-59.32
29.52
31 . 06
50.32
17.41
-23.45
25.78
-75.12
16.07
77.69
-8.5 1
-39.48

3.74
-34.69
35.28
11.40
-11.86
1 . 07
4.94
-15.00
10.88
0.26
3.18
29.50
27 . 9 6
53.51
-0.84
-3.88
12 . 5 8
7.94
-41.06
20.2 1
60.25
50.60
-50.68
39 .96
19.79
30.86
17.18
-51.74
2 1.07
-1.64
10.39
-0.97
10.73
20.98

-26 .92
-34.55
22.13
38.72
-22 .72
13.51
27.72
-0.05
14.02
7.73
8.38
24.40
35.77
43.54
24 . 8 0
-15.66
37 . 5 7
14.26
-10.73
11.53
52.32
-8.12
-7.38
29.02
20.27
29.12
28.66
-20.56
0.22
-10.44
28.04
54.84
-4.58
26 . 0 9

Oct.

-19.08
-4.46
48.65
3 9 . 18
-11.84
-23.17
- 2 .27
-43.97
53.62
-17.93
-24.98

-48.80
- 0 . 14
12.29
8.7 1
- 2 4 . 18
17 . 0 9
5.26
-7.33
37 . 8 2
-3.92
14.59
41.23
33.20

-36.72
0.82
24.83
0.13
-14.56
27.17
23.50
-54.42
35.65
9.53
-0.22
34 . 3 6
40.09

40.77
-39.32

38.54
36.14
0.32
14.17
-2.53
43.2 1
50.24
-16.10
-18.02
16.75
45.32
58.72
-26.05
2 .27
13.61
-77 .52

53.2
18.0
13.3
5 .4
22 . 1
25.8
76.9

23.12
5.32
51.49
-8.20
-4.62
- 2 4 . 12
- 4 2 . 16

68.2
-26.5
2 .0
- 3 7 .7
- 4 3 .2

20.84
19.67
26.20
-13.70
40.14
17.14
73.40
32.48
-75.51
18.35
26 . 2 5
49 . 6 8
32.10
-5.15
-0.54
-36.07

8.81
18.26
27.23

24.38
0.72
-30.89

20.09
-23.08

1 Q

13.45
-7.22
-22 .78

-5.5
12.1
-4.9

70.93
5.95
27 . 0 0

52.85
6 . 06
31.73
-2.53
54.08
9.86
24.73
23.62
6 . 05

13.92
14.32
21.96
13.13
4 8 . 00
4.34
39.37
0 . 14
4.24
3.26
7.2 1
•6.9 4
2.86
4.22

19 . 1
50.1

17 . 8 2
17.25
-8.81
-50.75
50.2 1
-15.37
-12.38
24.01
28.46
24.62
44 . 14

CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER IN 1982 DOLLARS, SMOOTHED DATA 1
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

1953. ..
1954...
1955...
56 ...
195 7 . . .
19
1959...
1960...
1961 . . .
1962...
3. . .
4. . .
5. . .
6 ...
7 ...
8. . .
9. . .
0.. .
1 ...
3. . .
4. . .
5...
6 ...
1977. ..
19
1979. ..
1980...
1981 . ..
1982 . . .
1983. ..
1984. ..
1985...
1986 . . .
1987 . . .

30.30
-44.97
2.18
22 . 10
1.45
-34.48
22.72
12.74
-27.06
32.60
7 .87
13.93
39.44

46 . 17
-40.32
4.10
23.48
-1.76
-41.67
35.89
5.41
-27 .28
36.44
14.41
18.25
45 .02

43.81
-38.07
11.96
2 1.48
-6 .56
-48.04
47 .30
-6.10
-20.63
29.10
24.02
2 1.41
43 .91

25.88
-37.59
15.80
18.88
-7.26
-42.79
49 .34
-2 1.74
-7.59
11.72
29.22
22.10
33.97

11.72
10.91
-34.76
-36.11
16.30
15.10
19 .30
18.92
-5.59
-5.78
-29 .22 -18.29
18.70
36 . 89
-26 . 10
-28.54
12 .41
3.49
-6.25
-3.01
2 1.84
28.66
23.69
20.76
20.5 1
22 .80

32.12
37 .37
28.70
6.13
14. 17
13.87
41.93
55.50
-18.85
-7 .97
22.40
40.04
59.28
-19.84
-2.70
-18.66

29.10
38.30
24.53
-4.77
28.81
18.63
52 . 09
50.22
-38.93
-0.58
25.88
44.45
54.42
-18.33
-1.12

15.38
17.34
26.28
-6 .04
29.10
14.53
7 1 .06
31.43
-72.45
2 1.42
25.36

-52.69

-39.68
54.81
9.81
12 . 7 6

23.26
26.78
24.52
-10.44
35.61
18.82
64.57
39 .99
-63.09
12.74
26.45
46.05
40.94
-11.2 1
1.26
-40.78
-27 . 0 0
66 . 0 5
7.60
2 1.74

9.77
17 . 4 0
28.00
1 .04
10.86
16.29
67.22
34.48
-64.84
24.70
26.08
59.77
29.82
-0.86
1.29
-26 .29
-9.2 1
78.81
- 6 . 07
14.25

4 4 . 16
7.97
8 . 37
53.

-33.36

53.29
32 . 0 8

-2.69
0.5 1
-29.84
-19.56
75.86

1 .49
25.18

9.18
17 . 37
27 . 0 6
2.82
-8.62
22.01
62.60
41.70
-55.89
27 . 4 8
28.01
55.79
27.91
-11.75
6 . 00
-27.64
2 .64
65.55
-4.80
1 .36

-13.01
-33.10
25 .33
23.34
-14.19
2 .84
16.47
-7.00
16.90
7.69
10.19
26 .93
30.52

-30.39
-26.74
19.52
24.47
-13.31
9.98
26.35
-1.99
19.76
12 .36
10.27
32 .30
25.14

-43.27
-13.36
15.69
17.44
-17.32
14.38
29.69
-2.48
19 .60
16.28
11.41
35 .45
15.76

-48.68
-1.48
16.44
8. 05
-25 .08
16.56
24.25
-7 .44
19 ,
13,

9 .94
8.62
26 . 57
3.36
-21.66
22.78
57 .85
39 .25
-45.31
31.45
26 .01
42 .86
24.66
-26 .96
13.33
-27.70
14 .23
49 .06
-0.6 1
0.06

19.62
5 .25
27.75
8.86
-16.09
26.55
50.2 1
20.07
-32.42
27.17
26 .64
34.91
16.2 1
-31.87
11.01
-23.88
22 .24
39 .84
-2 .36
4.95

29.66
12 .24
28.40
11.35
-1.72
37.59
43 . 09
2 .56
-19.96
22.78
35.09
33.46
0.62
- 2 5 . 19
4.2 1
-22 . 1 1
29.08
40.06
-5.60
-1.28

27.80
25 .42
28.73
1.77
10.32
48. 57
41.07
-2.14
-12.28
23. 06
38.11
37.59
-16.24
-15.89
-1.98
-30.83
32.31
36.6 1
-3 .46
-9.74

24.58
20.75
31.53
33.24
16. 05
22 . 4 9
-2.63
-5.01
8.47
10.15
41.18
49.89
54. 14
45.20
-5 .56
-1.77
-8.82
-10.17
24.41
25.62
34.05
35.06
53.67
44.58
-24.76
-23 .70
-9.00
-2 .43
-3.39
-8.42
-41.71
-50.80
3 8 . 14
34.59
10.56
22 .24
2 . 14
5 .82
-9 . 18
-4.49

-47.94
2.94
19 .26

40.09
-41.12
6 .08

-29.28
18.70
18.57
-18.46
23.54
7 .85
10.28
35 .26
2 1.18

12 .

12.6 1
-33.18
16.18
21.30
- 5 . 34
-12.97
12 . 0 8
-23.25
15.04
-7 .06
16.34
25.44
19.2 1
47 . 5 8
8.74
14.96
24.47
5.17
-20.91
23.36
59.50
44.82
-51.49
30.06
28.31
48.95
28.23
-22 . 00
10.96
-26 . 33
10.30
54.28
-0.44
-2.41

-38.95
-20.13
14.09
24.31
-12.10
14.99
30. 19
1 .44
20.93
15.25
10.42
35.85
19.53
38.08
31.21
16.24
29.97
6.52
6.32
44.29
41.96
-1.35
-14.21
24.05
40.60
33.87
-10.10
-18.55
2.07
-25.54
31.86
44.28
-7 .26
-9.93

. 1 1
,86
48 . 5 7
-40.29
1.40
24.91
43.51
51.55
-16.46
-0.85
-30.93
-39.79
55.01
8.46
14.29

16.17
-36. 15
15.73
19.03
-6.2 1
-30. 10
34.98
-25.46
2.77
0.82
26.57
22.18
25 . 7 6
53.65
11.44
17.37
27.11
-0.73
10.45
17.61
66.96
35.87
- 6 4 . 39
24.53
26 . 4 8
56.28
29 . 9 4
-5.10
2.60
-27 .92
-8.71
73.41
-3.13
13.60

-13.06
-30.95
21.93
23.16
-12.37
2.23
18.03
-8.30
17 . 2 6
6 .49

11.25
28.17
26.81
48.44
19.74
8.70
27 . 5 7
7.86
-13.16
28.97
50.38
20.63
-32 .56
27.13
29.25
37 . 0 8
13.83
-28.01
9.52
-24.56
21.85
42 .99
-2 .86
1 .24

318.1

316.2

318.8

316.2

310.8

316.9
343 .7
355.0
321.5

320.1
348.6
353.6
315.4

326 .4
346 .4
350.7
315.4

327 .4
346 . 5
351.9
319.1

330.3
339.9
350.0
322 .4

330.0
348.8
350.2
327 .4

330.1
352.1
347.1
331.1

380.9

382 .5

418.4

420.5

478.8
500.0
519.9
500.0
487 . 0
513.2
551.7
534.4
477.5
5 14.0
543.7

481.8
500.3
521.1
497 .8
486.1
5 17.9
543.1
533.5
485 .9
516.5
544.5

310.8
00.4
35 .3
55 .4

305 .8
339.1
354.7

308 . 3
341 .0
359.1

298 .9
313.2
342.6

296 .8
324.6
347 .2

315.3
295 .2
330.1
346 .9
327 . 0

29.4

58.8

3. . .
4. . .
1975.. .
1976. ..
1977 ...
19
1979. . .
1980. . .
1981.. .
1982 . . .
1983. ..
1984...
1985 . . .
1986...
1987 . . .

480.9
487.8
512.7
511.7
486 .7
501.6
540.0
544.4
495.9
504.8
519.4
546.0
584.8
562.7

475
493
510
509
484
5 06
544
541
484
5 07
524.3
550.4
584.0

496 . 1
5 15.0
5 11.6
486 . 0
511.4
543.0
537.2
481.2
510.0
528.2
557.4
586.9

475.5
498 . 0
5 15.2
504.0
488. 0
513.5
544.5
536.8
479.4
512.7
532.5

473 .8
500.8
517.5
498.5
491 . 1
5 14.8
544.6
536.7
481.1
514.0
538.0

578.8

580.4

475 .7
500.0
519.0
499 .8
489.0
515.3
545.9
537.5
481 .4
511.4
543.5

381.8
393.4
417 .8
440. 1

477.6
492.6

475.0
499.6

517.2
500.8
489.4
514.5
545.0
537.0
480.6
5 12.7
538.0
570.4
579.8
538.9
510.2
491.8
527.4
538.0
542 . 8

479.8
501.5
521.1
495.7
486.9
5 17.8
547 . 4
532.7
484.0
515.5
546.0
574,9
574.3
5 32.6
536.0
495.5
501.1
532.2
539.1
540.8

83 .2
96.9
20.7
50.9

383.5
399.4
428. 2
453.6

373.7
385.0
402 .6
431.8

478.7
5 04. 1
522.4
489.2
487 .7
522.2
547.5
530.2
488.5
515.9
549 .8

77 .4
06.3
20.4
79.7
88.4
27 .2
546.1
525.5
490.9
514.7
552.2

84.9
09.8
516.5
476 . 1
490.6
531.4
549 .4
509 .4
491 .8
521.9
552.8

488.6
511.4
5 16.9
484.0
496 .9
534.5
549 .7
501.7
496 .7
523.1
549 .5

522.4
536.6
539.2

523.1
538.6
542.8

526.2
537.3
544.5

526.1
537.9
544.1

529.8
538.7
539.7

572.0

569.4

566.8

567.5

512.6
5 11.1
485.7
506.4
542.4
541.1
487.1
507 . 4
524.0
551.3
585.2

538.0
495.6

580.1

532.1
491.6

532.4
539.8
542.0

533. 1
540.0
540.0

531.2
485 .6
509.3
532.2
543 .2
545.1

526.9
484. 1
5 13.0
535.2
540.8
541.6

522.8
487 .2
5 16.0
538.0
541.3
540.3

541.0
521.4
488.8
521 .6
538.4
540.7

578.7

521.9
519.2
540.1
540. 1

380.6
389.7
410.9
434.2

81.3
95.6
14.9
46.0

3 ...

9...
0. . .
1. . .

531.1
537.5
540.3

NOTE: U n l e s s o t h e r w i s e n o t e d , t h e s e s e r i e s c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1 9 4 8 .
' T h i s s e r i e s i s a w e i g h t e d 4 - t e r m m o v i n g a v e r a g e ( w i t h w e i g h t s 1 , 2 , 2 , 1 ) p l a c e d on t h e
c o n t a i n s r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1947.




Annual

-46 . 12
2.25
22.95
2.10
-30.94
18.04
17 .83
-28.46
26.51
6.51
9.56
32.52
28.81
31.73
32.03
31.17
14.62
1.79
10.96
35.42
58. 06
-10.52
-7.65
19.67
33.60
59.49
-20.27
-0.10
-16.09
-54.29
39.87
5.56
7.72
-0.17

-7 .92
-22.59
17 .76
16 .24
-14.30
.67

16.20
29.61
27 .92
44.35
23.20
20.5 1
23.81
-0.05
9.13
30.05
58.23
16.36
-37.21
23.03
32 . 19
48.00
7 .49
-11.45
-0.90
-35.56
14.07
43 .76
1 .49
3.62

-46.63
-3.97
17.13
9.77
-23.89
16.55
2 4 . 17
-9.46
20.86
12 .46
11.13
35.74
16.57
34.76
24.38
30.06
22 .42
-1 .96
9.65
46.55
46 .80
- 3 . 16
-10.42
24.36
35.74
45.28
-21.57
-9.11
-4.60
-41.11
35.01
23.14
1.50
-7 .80

-0.86
-28.05
15.22
18.58
-11.19
-13.18
28.12
-9.80
3.98
13.12
16.10
25.99
27.98
45 .62
20.93
22 .57
25 .76
0.54
8.28
27.56
54.25
25 .48
-36.92
19.36
29.10
45.54
18.44
-14.67
1 .67
-31.13
2 .09
48.63
0.99
5.33

A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD

317.3

414.6

312 .
341 .
356.
322 .

IV Q

M A N U F A C T U R I N G , AND CONSTRUCTI ON l

WAGES AND SALARIES IN 1982 D O L L A R S ,
(ANNUAL R A T E , B
317.0

310.
342.
356.
331.
343.

III Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

4.21
-33.01
20.95
2 1.67
-9.60
-6.13
11.26
-15.92
15.13
-0.58
13.30
25.27
24.76

382 . 1

1953 ...
1954...
1955.. .
1956 . . .
1957 . . .
1958. ..
1959. ..

II Q

A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD
-47.62
4.99
2.7 1
10.44
-4.58
31.12
27.96
5.57
17.88
17.58
4.06
50.80
-5.68
10.6 1
8.47
20.16
22.01
-21 .06
7 . 19
60.37
53.48
27.14
-16.18
47.58
52.88
33.30
- 4 7 . 12
-11.92
8.27
- 2 2 .2 1

- 4 2 . 31
-30.82
17.44
23.77
-8.99
0 . 34
34.88
-1.19
30 . 8 9
20.44
18.82
32.36
28.50
60.08
60.36
44.23
30.32
26 . 36
22.5 1
60.96

Nov. Dec.

IN 1982 D O L L A R S , ACTUAL DATA

terminal

month o f

the

span

2

This

series

313.6
298.9
326.6
348.3
349 .6
326 . 5
353.9
360.1
357 . 9
379.7
391.3
413.2
439.1
470.1
479.0
500.7
517.2
496 . 9
488.5
5 17.4
545 . 8
530.7
486.2
513.9
539.9
569.4
576.8
542.2
535.7
503.2
498.6
529.1
539.3
541.6

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug. Sept.

Oct.

Nov. Dec.

I Q

1953. ..
1954. ..
1955...
1956 . . .
1957 . . .
1958. . .
1959. ..
1960...
1961 . . .
1962 . . .
1963. ..
1964...
1965. . .
1966 . . .
1967 . . .
1968...
1969. . .
1970...
197 1 ...
1972...
1973. ..
1974...
1975...
1976.. .
1977. ..
1978...
1979. ..
1980.. .
1981...
1982 . . .
1983...
1984. ..
1985. ..
1986. . .
1987 . . .

-1.09
-1.89
1.83
1.20
-5 .82
-1.45
1.15
-5.52
-0.27
1 .02
0.
0.

1
5
-1 .41
3.42
-0.58
2.50
0.82
0.76
- 3 . 08
-0.09
2 .25
-0.17
0.18
0.37

1.32
-0.24
1.13
-0.20
-3.62
1.72
1.82
-2.80
0.81
-0.25
0.53
-0.26
-0.97
0.70
-1.75
0.24
1 .26
-1.24
0.67
0.40
3.77
2 .39
-0.29
1.32
-0.12
1 .06
1.99
1.76
-3.09
-1.62
3.10
1.33
-1.33
-0.92

1.31
-0.48
0.89
0.99
-1.11
-0.97
1 .34
-2 .64
1 .07
- 1 .02
0.26
0.78
0.25
2.09
- 1 .02
1.20
2 .07
-0.63
0.88
1.18
2 .64
3.73
- 2 .06
2 .35
2 .57
0.00
5 .07
-0.74
0.62
-1 .06
2.14
0.49
-0.54
0.93

0.22
0.24
0.00
1 .76
-3.80
-1 .46
-0.66
0.00
2.11
-1.28
-0.53
1 .54
0.00
0.46
-0.77
-0.24
-1.22
-0.42
1.31
0.19
4.35
3.94
0.60
2.55
-0.68
0.31
-0.08
-5 .90
1 . 14
-1.17
-0.48
-0.81
-1.17
1 .29

-0.2 1
1.69
1 .86
0.74
-0.44
-0.74
0.26
-0.78
0.53
0.00
1.23
0.23
0.7 8
-0.48
0.63
-0.43
0.78
3.70
-8.12
2.99
1 .00
-0.69
1.78
0.34
-4.15
0. 00
-0.40
2.01
-0.41
0.00
0.82

-0.43
0.00
1.53
-3.88
4. 34
0.98
1 .56
-2 .24
1.03
-1.05
0.00
0.76
-0.48
0.23
1 .80
1.91
-1.66
-0.2 1
1.08
1.74
2 . 08
0.59
-2.61
1 .60
-1.27
3.39
2.78
-1.38
-0.44
-1.49
2 .90
-0.99
-0.18
0.45

0.65
0.95
2 .80
-2.62
-2 . 19
0.97
-0.88
-1 .02
0.26
-0.26
1.58
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.76
1 .64
-1.05
-1.26
2.58
1.71
-0.73
1.41
-2.38
4.61
1 .40
0.99
-1.81
2 .62
-0.96
0.20
3.55
-2.50
-0.18
0.99

-1.07
-1.41
0.63
1 .24
-0.89
2.17
-0.88
-2 .06
0.00
0.27
0.52
1 .2
1.22
-4.51
0.50
0.69
1 .06
-0.64
1.67
1.12
3.52
-1 .62

- 0 . 14
0.64
0.80
-0.90
0.80
0.09
0.15
-0.99
1.13
-1.04
0.00

.23
1 .57
-0.92
3.64
- 0 . 18
-1.61
2.55
-1.7 1
-0.37
-2 . 14

-1.18
-1.08
1.22
0. 16
-2 .89
-0.72
0. 17
-1.70
0.00
0.90
-0.19
0.37
-0.86
1.35
-0.18
-0.18
1.53
0.32
0. 17
1 .47
1.59
0.44
-1.96
1.7 1
0.78
2.15
1.05
0.88
-1.76
- 0 . 19
1.33
0.00
-0.66
0.29

0.34
-0.36
0.86
-0.48
-2.32
0.55
0.70
-1.55
0.93
-0.90
0.00
0.00
-0.35
0.83
-1.06
0.00
1.17
-0.32
0.68
0.80
3.14
2.98
0.00
0.96
0.77
0.42
2 .46
1.22
-1.88
-0.86
2 .33
0.54
-0.75
-0.68

0.85
0.36
- 0 . 17
0. 32
-0.34
-0.54
0.87
-1.40
1 .48
- 0 . 36
0.00
0.3
0.69
0.99
-1.25
0.53
0.99
-0.32
0. 34
1 .43
2.35
2 .03
-0.50
1.78
1.86
-0.10
3.33
-0.77
0.82
-1 .06
1.58
0.7 1
-0.28
-0.99

-0.48
-0.68

-0.4
-0. 1
0.13
0.40
0.32
0.56
-0.58
0.54
1.21
0.30
-0.78
0.46
1.41
2.57
-3.25
0.45
0.21
0.96
0.93
0.24
0.08

-0.34
-0.69
0.52
0.68

-0.97
-0.45
-0.05
- 1 .02
0.00
0.15
0.03
0.25
-0.20
0.82
-0.53
0.36

1.25
0.30
-0.39

0.81
1.64
2.30
- 2 .72
1.02
0.69
1.46
0.89
0.41
-0.86

-1.08
- 0 . 17
0.77

-0.80

-0.59
-0.05

-0.62
-0.05

0.66

0.5 1

-0.11
-0.57
0.58
0.22
-1.71
-0.18
0.23
-1.43
0.5
0.0
-0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.98
-0.7 1
0.15
1 .24
0.03
0.17
1 .08
2.14
2.05
-1.59
1.35
0.98
1.20
1 .64
0.57
-1.15
-0.68
1 .47
0.42

-1.81
1 .84
1 .46
1 .24
-2 .37
0.68
0.22
-0.54
-2.51
-0.53
0.26

-2 . 53
-1.36
2 .46

0.54
0.77
0.53
0.26

0.51
-0.87
i .28
0.66
-3.52
-0.23
1 .44
-3.65
0.54
-0.08
0.26

-0.48
-1.18
1.50
1.15
0.63
-0.43
0.2 1
-0.18
4.96
-1.88
5.47
0.35
1.57
0.87
0.00
1.23
-2 .30
-0.10
-0.09
0.17
-0.83
1.18

0.72
-0.48
-0.25
2.27
0.00
0.22
0.41
2.77
4.46
-4.43
-0.28
-1.74
-1.00
2.2 1
1.60
1.74
-1.27
-0.20
1 . 03
-1.30
0. 37
1.17

0.72
-1.20
1 .48
1.11
1.67
-3.01
0.41
1.80
6.73

0.24
-1.70
1.22
2.41
0.00
-1.11
1.43
1.24
2.91
-8.63
2 .24
1.53
3.49
-0.27
-1.50
0.42
-0.94
0.62
1 .09
-0.44
0.09
-0.18

-0.64
1.41
-1.34
0.40
1 .82
-0.76
0.82
1 .00
2.72
1.57
-2.10
2 .36
0.62
1.19
2.63
0.59
-1.85
-0.92
2.50
0.55
-0.56
0.13

0.25
0.31
0.60
0.40
-1.23
0.00
0.65
0.90
3.38
-1.20
0.33
1.72
-0.88
1.83
1.01
-3.81
0.23
-1.02
1 .48
-0.74
-0.45
0.85

0.00
- 0 . 36
0.64
0.00
-1.85
-0.24
0.58
-1.55
0.80
-0.12
-0.06
0.25
-0.17
1 .06
-0.83
0. 12
1.23
-0.11
0.40
1.23
2.36
1.82

-0.68
0.72
0.45
-0.85
0.12
0.00
0.28
-0.35
0.18
-0.85
-0.06
0.49
0.29
-0.33
0. 00
-0.29
-0.06
-0.32
0.11
0.88
2.12
-0.85

-0.64
0.06
1 .06
0. 39
-0.97
1.02
0.00
-0.54
0.30
- 0 . 19
0.12
0.83
0.00
-1,44
0. 12
0.48
0.60
-0.65
0.66
0.36
1.79
-0.83

1.23
-1.04
0.76
0.54
-3.00
-0.15
-1.25
0.62
-0.35
-0.54
0.40

0.61
0.48
1.15
-0.21
1 .99
-0.42
0. 10
1.36
-0.93
-0.36
- 0 . 14

0.42
0.24
-0.67
3.10
-0.33
2.13
-2 .57
-0.51
1 . 36
-0.44
-0.37
1.16

-0.34
0.90
-0.17
-1.27
0.35
0.37
0.00
-0.18
0.18
-0.37
0.37

-0.34
0.18
1 . 02
-2 .09
1.72
0.92
0.68
-1.24
-0.54
-1.10
-0.37

0.17
0.00
2 .03
-0.82
-0.85
1 .09
-0.34
-0.54
0.36
-0.56
0.56

-0.69
-0.53
0.66
1.16
-0.51
1.26
- 0 . 17
-0.72
0.36
0. 19
0.37

-1.39
0.72
0.49
0.82
-1.55
0.7 1
0.51
-0.36
0.18
-0.19
-0.56

-1.58
1 .42
-0.33
-0.81
-2.09
1.59
0.68
-1.10
0.00
0.19
0.93

0.18
0.88
0.99
1.31
-1.43
1.05
0.17
-0.55
-1.79
0. 19
0.37

0.86
-0.33
-0.90
-0.53
0.16
-0.32
1 . 17
0.63
2.16
1 .47
0.88
2 . 10
-0.43
0.2 1
0.63
-3.55
0.73
-1.27
0.39
-0.35
0.10
0.00

0.51
-0.66
0.18
-0.89
0.00
0.00
-0.50
1.40
2 . 12
-4.45
0.75
0.69
-0.75
0.31
0.00
-3.77
-0.45
- 0 . 30
0.49
-0.09
-0.57
0.50

-0.5 1
0.00
0.73
0.54
-0.33
-0.65
-0.33
0.62
2.07
0.43

-0.17
0. 17
-0.18
0.18
- 0 . 16
-1.14
0.50
0.46
1.02
0.54

0.51
-3.47
0.00
0.36
0.99
-0.49
1.00
0.6 1
3.14
-1.07

-0.34
-1.03
0.54
0.89
0.98
-0.33
0.49
0.00
1.22
-1.95

0.34
-0.86
-0.18
1.23
-0.48
-0.17
0.00
1 .82
1.93
-2 .98

0. 34
-0.70
1.08
1 .22
0.49
-1.33
0. 16
1.49
3.07
-2 . 16

-0.89
-0.52
1.63
0.48
-0.18
-1.21
-0.67
-0.19
0.91
0. 19
0.18
0.17
0.5 1
-0.53
0.71
1 .03
0.48
-1.01
0.49
1 .02
3.44
-5 . 12

0.91
-1.95
1.77
0.98
-1.68
-0.72
-2.18
0.97
-0.62
-1.15
0.69

2 .81
0.11
0.72
-0.26
2.09
0.00
0.7 1
1.91
-1.52
-0.29
0.69

-0.66
0.77
1 .63
-0.27
2.79
0.27
-0.7 1
1 .88
-1.09
-0.29
-2 .83

-0.33
0.55
1.10
-0.09
1 .08
-1.54
0.30
0.28
-0.18
-0.49
1.7 1

-1.33
-0.11
1.98
1 .60
0.81
-1.01
-0.5 1
1.01
-1.19
0.00
2 .27

0.00
-0.33
1.75
-0.52
1.15
- 1.68
-0.81
1 .09
0.00
-0.39
1.35

0.90
2.19
-0.48
0. 00
-0.44
-0.95
- 0 . 10
0.72
-0.84
0. 10
0.38

-0.93
0.30
0.67
0.39
-1.18
1.10
0.17
-0.6
0.2
-0.0
0. 1
0.9
0.0
-1.6
0 . 12
0.65
0.55
-0.49
0.58
0.58
1 .94
-1.41
1 .46
-0.08
0.44
1 .36
0.10
1.77
-0.59
-0.10
1.21
-0.88
-0.31
0.12

-1.08
0.77
0.33
0.42
-1.54
1.15
0.40
-0.70
- 0 . 18
0.0'
0.2
0.9
0. 1
-1.3

-0.85
0.80
0.57
0 . 38
- 1 .46
0.80
0.26
-0.64
-0.42
0.13
0.37
0.76
0.26
-0.78
0.5 1
1.14
0.25
-0.72
0.22
1 .27
2 .44
-2 .89
0.38
-0.35
0.31
1.35
0.34
0.76
-1.31
-0.41
0.87
-0.57
-0.20
1.56

-0.66

-0.28

-0.06
0.43

0.11
0.78
-0.95
0.06
1 .00
-0.21
0.56
1 .09
2.46
1 .99
-0.35
1.55
0.94
0.50
2.2 1
-0.30
-0.52
- 0 . 88
1 .59
0.36
-0.44
-0.51

-0.17
0.57
0.23
0.08
-1.01
-0.45
0.46
-0.64
0.98
-0.70
0.00
0.55
0.54
0.25
-0.86

-0.15
0.58
-0.27
0.53
1 .05
2.38
0.92
0.25
1 .57
0.48
0 . 16
1 .7
-1.8
0.1
-0.9
1 . 1
0.20
-0.28
-0.36

-0.48
0.75
0.26
-0.45
-0.22
-0.24
0.32
-0.38
0.52
-0.73
0.00
0.49
0.49
- 0 . 16
-0.33
-0.30
0.16
-0.27
0.23
1 .02
2.16
-0.58
0.01
1.38
-0.41
0.45
0.93
-2.85
0.11
- 1 . 06
0.72
-0.13
-0.40
0 . 12

-0.42
0.54
0.7 1
-1.12
0.26
0.40
0.20
-0.50
0.09
-0.77
0, 06
0. 36
0.11
-0.25
0.12
- 0 . 18
-0.11
-0.46
0.00
0.86

1 .93
-1.00
-0.70
1 .35
-0.95

0.85
0.39
- 2 .06
-0.27
-0.92
0.87
-0.55
-0.61
0.5 1

-0.23
0 . 12
1.10
-0.99
0.26
0.94
0.08
-0.74
0 . 03
-0.58
0.19
0.51
-0.06
-0.63
0.21
0.15
0.00
-0.68
0.14
0.70
1.91
-0.60
-0.76

1.25
-0.6 1
1.15
0.20
- 0 . 03
-0.27
-0.66

1.36
-0.91
-0.62

-0.46
-0.03

-0.63
0.24
1.15
-0.02
-1.5 1
0.44
0.34
-1.59
0.40
- 0 . 32
0.24
0.6 1
0.10
-0.33
0.25
0.97
0.34
-0.71
0.93
1.18
3.34
-1.41
0.28
1 .42
0.55
1 .46
0.66
0. 18
-1.09
-0.62
1.78
-0.56
-0.36
0.43

1 .48
1 . 14
0.82

1.15
-0.10
-0.42
1 . 06
0.03
-0.69

0.18
-0.34
0.16

0.81
-0.03
-1.27
0.15
0.42
0.38
-0.7 1
0.53
0.46
1.94
-0.43
0.44
0.81
0.06
1 .26
-0.03
1.53
-0.29
-0.31
1 .47
-1.00
-0.47
-0.31

-0.76
0.59
0.76
0.33
-1.23
0.48
0.06
-0.61
-0.29
0.19
0.49
0.70
0.40
-0.70
0.54
1.16
0.16
-0.84
0.22
1 .44
2.81
-3.42
0. 08
-0.14
0.58
1 .08
0.36
0.51
-1.21
-0.47
0.94
-0.68
-0.10
1.33

-0.52
0.26
0.73
-0.03
-0.98
0.32
0.23
-0.76
0.25
-0.24
0.12
0.57
0.13
-0.35
-0.04
0.36

0.48
-0.48
0.35
0.98
2 .27
-0.82
0.06
0.80

0.29
0.96
0.74
-0.02
-0.68
-0.58

1 . 16
-0.39

-0.39
0.28

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

NOTE: Unless o t h e r w i s e n o t e d , t h e s e s e r i e s c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1948.
2
' T h i s s e r i e s c o n t a i n s r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1947.
T h i s s e r i e s i s a w e i g h t e d 4 - t e r m moving average
p l a c e d on t h e t e r m i n a l month o f t h e s p a n .




-2 .04
1 .03
1 .24
0.42
-1.78
0.24
0.30
-0.53
-0.33
-0.09
0.35
0.90
0.56
-1.13
0.82
1 .93
0.56
-1.30
0.75
1 .94
4.70
-5.31
0.79
0.01
0.61
1.68
-0.08
1.43
-1.59
-0.03
1 . 16
-0.73
0.03
0.72

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-1.35
1 .09
0.5 1
0.80
-1.70
-1.28
0.17
0.36
0.91
-1 .09
-0.19

-0.02
0.00
0.52
0.11
-1.65
-0.33
0.58
-1.2 1
0.96
-0.45

-0.86
0.16
1.28
-0.26
-1.55
1.68
-0.51
-1.20
0.26
-0.08
0.36
0.50
0.25
-1.90
0.92
1.16
0.21
-0.78
1 .49
0.88
2.58
-0.70
2.10
1.58
1.83
1.14
-0.91
2.50
-1.15
-0.50
2.00
-1.35
-0.46
0.01

-1.77
2.60
-0.2 1
-1.42
-3.2 1
2.08
1 .56
-1.58
0.76
-0.27
0.52

99. CHANGE IN SENSITIVE MATERIALS PRICES, SMOOTHED DATA^
(PERCENT)
1953...
1954. ..
1955. . .
1956 . . .
1957 . . .
1958. . .
1959 ...
1960...
1961 . . .
1962. ..
1963. ..
1964. . .
1965 . . .
1966 . . .
1967 . . .
1968...
1969...
1970...
197 1...
1972 ...
1973. ..
1974...
1975. ..
1976. . .
1977...
1978...
1979. . .
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983. . .
1984...
1985 . . .
1986 . . .
1987...

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-2 . 17
0.95
0.42
0.6 1
-1.58
1.89
0.22
-0.52
0.51
-0.26
-1.03

99. CHANGE IN SENSITIVE MATERIALS PRICES, ACTUAL DATA
(PERCENT)
1953. ..
1954. . .
1955...
1956. . .
1957 ...
1958...
1959. . .
1960...
1961 . . .
1962. . .
1963. ..
1964...
1965...
1966. . .
1967...
1968...
1969. . .
1970...
197 1. . .
1972. . .
1973...
1974...
1975 . . .
1976 . . .
1977...
1978. ..
1979. ..
1980. . .
1981...
1982 . . .
1983. . .
1984. . .
1985...
1986...
1987 . . .

IV Q

II Q

CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR SENSITIVE CRUDE AND INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS 1
(PERCENT)

0.
0.
0.
-0.

0.96
2.08
- 2 . 18
1 . 12
-0.66
0.22
1 .59
0.37
1.29
- 1 .09
-0.32
0.93
-0.64
-0.28
1 .08

-0.31
-0.65
0.55
0.58
-0.90

-0.55
0 . 14
-0.93
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.29
-0.05
0.79
-0.61
0.35
1.23
0.2 1
-0.33
0.78
1.73
2.31
-2.52
0.94
0.63
1.2 1
1.15
0.4 1
-0.64
-0.85
0.65
0.57
-0.62
-0.13

-0.22
0.44
0.3.
-0.0
-0.9
-0.3
0.4
-0.7

0.49
0.38
0.29
-0.7 1

-0.1
0.5
-0.2
0.4
1 .0
2.33
0.78
-0.03

1 . 1
0. 1
-0.3
-0.2

-0.37
0.2 1
0.99
-0.74
0 . 03
0.80
0 . 10
-0.64
0 . 10
-0.56
0 . 14
0.56
0.01
-0.72
0 . 16
0.13
0.09
-0.62
0.22
0.67
1 .93
-0.68
-0.34
1.14
-0.50
1.09
0. 19
-0.19
-0.28
-0.63
1.23
-0.82
-0.57
0.09

-0.95
0.62
0.52
0.40

-1.39
1 .02
0.28
-0.66
- 0 . 12
0.04
0.27
0.88
0 . 16
-1.24
0.31
0.
0.

0.99
-0.3
0.3
1 .2
-1.00
-0.28
1 .00
-0.70
-0.26
0.92

-0.46
0.16
0.60
0 . 04
-0.80
0.23
0.24
-0.74
0.2 1
-0.28
0.11
0.56
0.12
-0.22
-0.21
0.32
0.58
-0.30
0.18
0.86
2 .04
0.06
-0.48
0.80
0.20
1 .02
0.81
-0.04
-0.50
-0.68
1.01
-0.20
-0.46
0 . 16
(APRIL 1988)

( w i t h weights

1,2,2,1)

99

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.
341.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERV1SORY
ON PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS
(1977=100;

Nov. Dec.

II Q

III Q

IV Q

Annual

WORKERS
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
68.6
70.7
73.2
75.9
76 .9
78.0
80. 1
81.5
83.2
85.1

4. . .
5. . .
6 ...
7 ...

1. . .
3.. .
4. . .
5. ..
6 ...
7 ...
8. . .
9. . .
0. . .
1 . . .

985. ..
986 . . .
9 8 7 . ..

86.6
88.1
90.0
91.2
93.1

86.7
88.5
89.7
91.5
93.2

96 .9
100.2
102 .2
99 .3
97 .0
97 .6
99 .9
100.9
99 .9
94.6
93.0
93.2

97.2
98.0
99 . 5
100.8
99.5
94.2
92.9
93.0

94.4
93.6

94.5
94.3

100.2
102.0

341C.

1980.
981 .
982 .
983.
984.
985 .
986 .

341C.

87.1

90.0

90.1

91.7
93 .5

100,
101,

93.8
97.9
100.9
101.6

10 1.
101.

99.
100.

87.2
88. 7
90.3

87.5
89.0
90.3

98.1
00.9
01.4
99.0
98 . 0
98.7
00.4
97.3
93.2

93.0
93 .6

94. 1
95.1

94.0
95.4

92.6
92.7

94.0
95.4

94. 1
95.2

88. 1
89.4
9 0.4

0.4
0.4
0. 1
0.2
0.3
-0. 3
0. 1
0.2
0. 3
-0.4
-0.3
0.5
0.2
-0.1
0. 0
-0.6
-0.4
0. 0
0,5
-0.3
0.3
-0.4
0.8

0. 1
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2

-0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0. 1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.
-0.
0.
-0.
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
-0.2

87.9
89.7

88.0
89.

88. 2
89.5
91.0

94.2

94.0

101.2
101.7

100.4
97.0
93 .7
92.0
92.7

97.8
99 . 3
99. 8
100.3
96 .7
93 .7
92.4
93.2

98 .8
101.9
100.3

98 . 5
101.3
100.2

99 . 6

92.8
93.4

87.9
89.3
90.0

93.9
95.1

100.
100,

94.5
95.1

CHANGE IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 1-MONTH
(PERCENT)

0.2
0.4
-0.3
0.3
0. 1
0.3
0.0
0.6
0.0
-0.2
-0.6
0.2
0.4
-0.4
-0. 1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
-0.3
0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.7

0.1
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.7
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.0
1 .0
0. 1
0.9
0.6
0.0
0. 1
0.5

87.0

0.3
0.4
0. 0
0.2
0. 1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.2
0. 1
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.0
0. 1
0.0
0.2
0.0

0 .4
0.3
-0.3
-0.2
0. 1
-0.1
0.5
0 .2
0. 1
-1.5
-0.3
0 .5
0.4
0. 0
-0.2
-0.3
0. 0
0.4
0.5
-0.5
-1.0
0.2
0. 1

0. 3
0.2
0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0. 5
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.2
0.2
0. 1
0.4
-0.1

CHANGE IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 6-MONTH
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)

100.6
100.1
95.9
93.5
92.1
93.4

94.1
95.2

98.
101 .
100.

99.
95.

94.0
95.5

86 .8
88.5
89 .8
91.5
93.3

100.
101.
97.3
97.9
99 .6
100.8
99 .4
94.2
92 .9
93.2
95.0

99.
95.

94.1
95.2

94.3
94.3

100.
101.

92.3
94.0
5 .0
96.1
98.5
101.4
100.9

99.
100.

97.6
99 .2
99.9
100.3

94.4
95.3
96.1
99 . 0
102 . 0
100.1

89.0
90.2
92 . 1
93.9
95.0
95.6
98 .2
10 1.2
101.1
98. 3
97.5
98.9
99.9
100.4
97.4
93.6

93 . 1
94.6
94.0
95.3

93.8
94.8

93.3
94.8

94.2
95.1

94.1
95.3

94.2
95.0

SPANS
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

-0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.5
0. 1
0.4
-0.3
0. 1
0.3
-0.5
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.5
-0.2
-0.6
0. 1
0.0
0. 1
0. 3
-0.1
-0.5
0. 1

0.2
0. 1
0.3
0. 3
0. 0
0.0
0.5
-0.
0.
-0.

0.2
-0.1
-0.5
0. 0
0.8
0.2
0.3
0.2
-0.3

0.0
0.4
0.2
0.0

0. 1
0. 0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0. 1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
0. 1
0.2
0. 1
-0. 1
-0.5
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. 1

0.3
0.3
0. 1
0. 0
0.1
0. 1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0. 1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.3
0. 1
0.2
0.2
0. 1
0.3
0. 1
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0. 1
0. 1
0.1
-0. 1
-0.3
-0.2
0.1
0.4
0. 1
0.2
-0.1
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0. 1
0.0
0.0
0. 1

SPANS
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1953.
954.
955.

1.0
1 .8
2 .8
1 .2
0 .8
4 .0
2 .8
- 1 .6
- 1 .9

-0.5
0.7
3. 1
0.8
0. 1

0.0
-0.6
3. 1

1 .2
2.7
0.5
-1.1
-5.5
-1.0
-0.9
0.4
-1.8
-1.4
-0.8
1 .9

2. 1
2 .3
0.7
1 .5
1.4
1 .3
1.9
1 .9
1 .9
- 2 .6
-1.6
0.3
1.6
2 .4
-1.8
-5.1
0. 3
-1.9
-0.5
0.3
-2.8
0.2
-0.4

2 . 1
1 .8
1 . 1
1 .2
1.3
1 . 1
2 .0
1 . 1
1.5
-2.1
- 2 .5
-0.4
1 .5
1 .3
-1.7
-4.0
0.3
-0.9
-0.2
-1.0
0.0
0.3

0.3
-0.8
0.0
0.1

1
1
2
2

2 .3
1 .9
1 .5
0.9
1 .3
-0. 1
1.6
2 .9
2 .7
- 2 .9
-3.2
-1.2
2 .2
1 .6
-0.9
-3.4
-0.7
-0.5

.7
.0
.7
.9

3 .5
-0. 1

-i.O
-5.3

0.0
-1.0
-0.6
-1.0

0. 1
1 . 1
-1.5

N O T E : T h e s e s e r i e s c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1 9 8 3 . P e r c e n t c h a n g e s a r e c e n t e r e d w i t h i n t h e s p a n s : 1-month c h a n g e s
~e placed on t h e 2d m o n t h a n d 6-month c h a n g e s are placed on t h e 4 t h m o n t h . Q u a r t e r l y a n d annual f i g u r e s a r e a v e r a g e s o f t h e

100



2 .4
1.7
0.8
1.8
1 .6
0.7
2 .0
2.5
2 .2
-2 . 0
-1.1
0.6

-1.0
-0.3
1 .7

1.5
1 .5

2.7
3.6
1. 0
-4. 1
-1.9
0.8
0.8
2.0
-1.9
-5.2
-1.6
2 .2
0. 1
0.3
-1.3

0.7
1.6

-0.6
-0. 1
0.8

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

II Q

2 .2
2 .7

12.1
12 .4
12 .9

12.1
2.3
2.9

12.1
12.4
13.1

12.1
12 .5
13.3

12.1
12 .5
13.3

12.0
12.1
12 .6

2.2
2.3
2 .8

12.1
12 .4
12 .9

12.1
12 .5
13.2

12.1
12.3
12 .9

3.8

3.8

14.0

14. 1

14. 1

4.0

14.2

14.2

4.3

13.8
14.3

3.9
4.5

14. 1
4.3

14.2
14.5

1 4.0
1 4 .4

4.6
5 .0
5.8
6 .2
6.5

4.6
5.0
5 .9
16. 1

14.7
15.1
16.0
16. 1
16.7

14.7
5.1
15.9
16.0
16.7

15.3
15.8

15.3
15.7
16.1
16.8

15.4
15.8
16.2
16.9

4.8
5.5
5 .9

14.8
15 .5

6.2
6.9

6.0
6.3

5.0
5.9
6.1
6.6

15.2
15.8

16.7

5.3
15.8
16.0
6.7

5.4
5.8
6 .2
16 .9

1 4.6
1? . 1
15.8
16.1
16 .6

18.2
18.6

18.5

18.2
18.5

8.2
8.4

18.2
18.4

18.3
18.7

8.4
8.8

7 .8
18.4

8.1
8. 5

8.2
8.5

.0.5
.1.9
24.1
25 5
27 .9
32 .7
41.3
46 .6
54.7
59 .0
68.2

20.5
21.9
24.1
257
28.0
32.7
41.5
47.2
55.0
59 .4
68.8

0.5
2.0
24.2
25.9
28.2
33.1
41.8
47.8
55.3
59.6
69.5

20.7
22.2
24.3
?6.9
8.8

20.7
22 .4
24.4
26.3
29.C
34. 3
42.9
49.4
55.8
60.3
70.8

0.9
2.5
4.5

4. 1
>8.3
J4. 3

20.5
21.7
23.9
25 4
27.8
32 .4
40.8
46 .5
54. 7
58.7
65.4

50.C
56.1
60.8
7 1.3

20.1
2 1.2
23.0
24.8
26 .8
30.2
36. 3
44.5
51.9
56 .8
62.2

20.5
2 1.7
23.8
25.3
27.6
32.0
39 .8
46 . 1
54.2
58.3
64.5

37.0

87 .6

88. 1

88.5

89.2

89.7

39.0
104.2
111.4
114.8

99.5
104.5
111.9
115.0

99.7
104.8
112.1
114.9

100.2
104.7
111.9
114.6

100.7
105.7
112.2
114.9

101.1
105 .9
112.2
115.5

12.0
12.1
12 .6

12.1
12.2
12.6

12.2
12.3
12.7

12 . 1

1957 . . .
1958. ..

13.8

13.8

13.8

1960. ..
1961 ...
1962...
1963. ..
1964...
1965...
1966. . .
1967. . .
1968.. .
1969. . .
1970...
1971...
1972 ...
1973. ..
1974...
1975 ...
1978. ..
1979...

14.5
14.8
15.5
15.9
16.3
17.0
17.7
18.4
18.9
20.0
21.0
22.8
24.7
26.6
29.8
35.7
44.1
5 1.4
56.5
61.7

14.5
14.8
15.5
16.1
16.3
17.0
17.8
18.4
19.0
20.2
2 1.2
23.0
24.8
26.8
30.3
36.3
44.6
51.9
56.8
62.2

14.5
14.9
15.6
16 . 1
16.3
17.1
17 .8
18.4
19.0
20.2
2 1.3
23.1
24.9
26 .9
30.6
37 .0
44.9
52.4
57.1
62.7

1981.. .

82.6

83.3

84.6

983...

97.1
102.0
107.2
113.1

97.5
102 .5
108.0
113.5

97.7
102.8
109.0
113.7

985 . . .
986 . . .
987 . . .

8.0
8.5
0.5
.1.6
3 .7
5 . 1
7 .4
31 .6
38.4
+ 5.7
3 . 7

>8.0
D

3 . 8

732C. UNITED KINGDOM--CHANGE

6.6
8. 1

8.5
0.4
1 .7

3.8
5 . 3
7 .6
32 . 1
+ 0.1
+ 6.2

8.1

16 . 0

3 .7
+ 2 .4
+ 8.7
5 .6

9.9
0.2

6 /

4.8
L 3.5

91.4
101.8
106.9
112.7
116.7

3.4
1.7

.1
3.3

1.7
5.0

1 .7
5.0

0.0
1 .6

87 .6

26.3
29.0
34.3
42.9
49 .4
55.8
60.3
70.8
81.6
9 1.3

99 .4
104.5
111.8
114.9

100.7
105.4
112.1
115.0

101.8
106 .7
112.6
116.5

99.8
104.8
111.2
115.0

92.C

83.5
97 .4
102 .4
108. 1
113.4

9 .4

+ .6

+.6

3.1

6 .2

1958. ..
1959. . .
1960...
1961 ...
1962. . .
1963.. .
1964. . .
1965. ..
1966. . .
1967. ..
1968. ..
1969. . .
1970...
1971.. .
1972. . .

4.3
1.4
2.8

.8
.4
.4
.7
.3
.5
5.7
. 1

0.0
-2.7
2.8
4.1
5.2
1.3
5.0
6.0
4.6
1.1

1 .4
-1.4
1 .4
6.9
3.9
-1.2
5.0

2.3
1 . 1
8.8
7 .2
5.9
11.1
5 .0

4.2
- .7
.4
.7
.2
.3
.0
.0
+.6
.1

1.7
4.9

4.5
2.8

3.9
4.6

. 1
.8
.0
.0

.1
.8
1 3.9
4.9

1974...

18.1

1

.4

1976. . .

13.6
19.3
6.9
11.3
2 0.3
13.5

1
1

.9
.2

1977 . . .

1978...
1979...
1980...
1981. ..
1983.. .
1984...
1985 . . .
1986 . . .
1987...

0.0
5.0

4.5

0.0

1.5

1.5

6.1

3. C

1.5

6.2

1 .4
-1.4
2 .8
6.8
3.9
0.0
6 .2

-1.4
-1.4
1 .4

1.4
1.4
2.8
5.4
0.0
2.5
4.9

0.0
2.8
1.4
6.8
0.0
2.5
3.6

4.2
1.4
1.4
5.4
0.0
3.8
3.6

4.2
O.C

2 .8

3.8

O.C

2 .£
2 .6

2 .7

-0.9
1 .9

-1.8
2 . 3

2.6

3.2

3.1
3.1
3.6

4.5
0.0

4.5

3.0
7.7
10.7
8. 2

4.0
7 .7
9.7
9.0

4.0
8.6
6 .9
10.7

3.3
3.3
5.2
5.0
9.5
6.8
11.4

3.3
4.4
5.2
4.9
8.4
5.9
10.5

2.2
5.5

5.1
8.8
10.8
5.7

3.4
4.4
5.2
5.0
8.5
6.9
10.6

5 .3
2 .5
3.7
5.2
3.8
1 . 1

5.9
4.3
0. 0
5.4

4.5
1.1

2 .1
2 .5
4.8
3.*
2 .2

I .2

18.1

16.4

16.9

16.6

17.0

19.6

9.2
12.0
7.9
21.4
18.3
12.7

11.5
11.9

1
2 D.4
12.8

?.8
15.6
6.9
13.2
20.2
12.7

13.7
11.3
8.6
22.0
14.3
11.4

16 .0
9.6
8.5
23.3
10.6
9 .9

18.3
9.1
9.2
23.8
10.2
10.9

3.3
4.2
8.2
3.2

3.3
4.0
8.2
2.9

3.7
3.7
8.4
1.8

4.8
3.7
7.4
1.1

6 .0
5.1
4.8
2.1

6 .6
5 .5
2 .7

6.2
6.1
2.7
4.2

i4.6

1

733.

1953...

2 1.6
16.0
13.1
5 .4
5. 1
6 .7
1 . 1

4.0
1 .3
1 .2
6 .2

1 . 1

2.8

-1.6
3.3

0.0
3.3

O.C
3.2

-1 .6
1 .6

2 .5

1 . 1

0.9

FOR
-1.1
3. 3
7.5
1.0

0.0
0.9
1.9
5 .4

0.4

PERIOD

0.6
3.8
5.7
3.5

3.7
0. 5
2 . 3
3 .5
2 . 1

2 . 1

3.4

4.9

4. 0
3.1
2.6
5 . 1
6 .2
6 .2
9.3
5 .6

3.7

958. ..
960...
961. ..
962...
963.. .
964...
965...
966 . . .

967...
968. ..
969. ..
1970...
1972 . . .
1973...

1974...
1975...
1976.. .
1977 ...
1978. ..
1979. ..
1980. ..
1981...
1982...
1983 . . .

1984. . .
1985...
1986 . . .

2. 1
-0.3
2. 1
4.5
3.0
2 .0
4.5

5.C
8."

5.f

5 .8
6.8
11.0

7 .(

5.0

21.3

23.2

25 ..

18.9

17 . 1

17.7

23.3

19.3

20.5
7.9
9.8
2 1.7
10.2
11.3

23.7
7.9
10.5
15.5
8.7
11.4

20.c
7 . (
10. )
16."
9 .

19.

21.2
7 .2
10.6
16.5
10.0
10.0

15.7
11.3

5.3
6.4
4.0
6.8

1 .5
11.7
8.5
21.7
16.2
12 .4
6.0
5 .4
4.6
6.3
1 .4

18.3
8.9
9 .2
22.9
10.3

6.6
5.4
3.4
5.9

11.8
17 .4
6 .8
12.0
20.3
13.0
8.0
3.4
4. 0

6.c
9.:

10.2

b.t
11.Z
17.*
11.

9-

9.

h.i

k.L

5 .(

1.
3 A
5 .

3.(
6 .

8.3
2 .6

CANADA--INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES (7)
( 1982-84=100)

2 .9
4.9
4.7
8.9

6.9
10.9

8.7

4^2
6 .5
5 .7
2 .9

4.3

AVERAGE FOR

24.2

24.2

24.1

24.0

24.0

24.1

24 2

24.2

24.3

24.4

24 .

24.

2 5.2
2 5.8

25.2
25.9

25.2
26.1

25.3
26.2

25.5
26 .2

25.6

25.7

25.8

25.8

25 .

25 .

2 6.7
2 7.1

26.6
27.0

26 .7
27 .0

35 . 1

27 .8
28.3
29. 1
30.1
31.2
32 .4
34. 1
35.2

27 .9
28.5
29.2
30.2
31.5
32.6
34 .2
35 .4

26.9
27.0
27.5
27.9
28.4
29.1
30.4
31.6
32.8
34.3
35.3

27.1
27.1
27.6
28.0
28.4
29.2
30.4
31.5
32.9
34.3
35.3

27.

27 .7
28.3
28.9
30.0
31.0
32 .3
33.8

26.8
27.0
27.5
28.1
28.5
29.2
30.4
31.6
32.7
34.3
35.4

27.
27.

27.7
28.2
28.7
29.8
30.6
32.0
33.2
34.8

26.7
27.0
27.3
27.7
28.3
28.9
30.0
31.0
32.3
33.7
35.1

26 .7
27 .0

27.6
28.1
28.7
29.6
30.6
32.0
33.2
34.8

26.6
27.0
27.2
27.7
28.2
28.8
29.8
30.7
32.1
33.4
34.9

25.3
26.2
26.3
26 .7
27 .0

37.1
39.1
42.7
47.9
52.4
55.7
60.6
66.0
72.3
81.0
90.2
97.7
102.9
106.7
111.4

37.2
39.4
43.2
48.2
52.7
56.2
61.0
66.6
72.9
81.8
91.4
98.1
103.5
107.4
111.8

37.2
39.5
43.6
48.5
52.8
56.8
61.7

37.4
39.9
43.8
48.7
53.1
57.1
61.9

37 .5
40.2
44.6
49.1
53.5
57.5
62.8

37 .5
40.6
45.2
49.8
53.8
58.0
63.3

38.0
40.9
45. 5
50.5
53.9
58.5
64.2

73.7
82.9
92.5
99.1
103.8
107.6
112.1

74.1
83.6
93.0
99.1
104.0
108. 0
112.2

75.0
84.2
94.3
99 .4
104.2
108. 3
112.8

75.9
85 .6
95.2
100.5
104.6
108.9
112.9

76.5
86 .3
95.7
100.9
105.2
109 .2
113.8

38.3
41.4
46 .0
51.0
54.2
58.7
64.3
69.7
77.1
87.0
96 . 1
101.5
105.2
109.4
114.1

38.4
41.7
46.2
51.1
54.5
59.1
64.1
70.3
77.8
87.6
96.7
101.5
105.3
109.6
114.1

38.4
41.8
46 .7
51.6
54.8
59.6
64.8
70.8
78.5
88.4
97.3
102 . 1
105.5
109 .9
114.7

959 . . .

1.3
3.4
5.7
3.8

4.5
0.7
6. 0
4. 0
8.1
10.4
7 .6

5.5

28.
28.
29.
30.

27 .

28.
28.

4.8

5 .0
5 .2

3.7
6.4

5.3
3.7

PERIOD

24.0

24.2

24.3

24.2

3

25 .2

25.4

25.7

25.8

24.4
24.8
25.5

26 .6
27.0

26.3
26 .7
27 .0

26.5
26 .8
27 .0

26 .8
27 . 1
27 .2

26 .5
26 .8
27.0

27 .7
28.3
29.0
30.0
31.1
32 .3
33.9
35.1

28.0
28.5
29.2
30.3
31.6
32 .7
34.3
35.4

28.1
28.5

27 .9
28.4
29.1
30.1
31.2
32 .5
34. 0
35.2

38.2

38.6
42.1
47 .2
51.9
55.0
60.0
65 .2

37 .9

45.9
50.9
54.2
58.8
64.2
77.1
87 .0
96 .2
101.3
105.2
109.4
114.0

79.3
89. 1
97.7
102 .2
106.0
110.4
115.2

76 . 1
8 5 .6
9 4.8
10 0.4
10 4.7

29 .

31 . >
33. 3

31.
33.

34.
35.

3

35.

27.7
28.2
28.7
29.7
30.6
32 .0
33.3
34.8

38. )
42. 1

38.
42.

37 .2
39.3

47 .
52 . 1
55. 3
6 0. D
65 . 3

47 .
52 .
55 .
60.
65 .

3.2
48.2
2 .6
6 .2
1 . 1

37.5
40.2
44.5
49.2
53.5
57 .5
62.7

->
2
)
1
I

80.
89.
97 .
102.
106 .

4

110.

3

115.

73.0
81.9
91.4
98.3
103.4
107 .2
111.8

75.0
84.5
94.2
99 .7
104.3
108.4
112.6

79.
89.
97 .
102.
106 .
110.
115.

34.

18.3
14.2
11.5

24.2

+

30.

3.7
2 .5
6 .0
5.2
8. 3
8.5
8. 1

6 .4

955...
957 . . .

18.1
18.5
20.5
21.8
23.8
25.5
27 .8
32.3
40. 1
46 .8
54.2
58.7
66.6
78.5
87 .9

_0.5

AVERAGE
5.1
3.3

5.3
3.8

8.3
8.6
9.7
.0.8
22 .4
.4.4

2 1.9
24. 1
25.7
28.0
32.8
41.5
47 .2
55.0
59.3
68.8
80.1
89. 1

102 . ]
106 .8
112.9
117.1

)0.5

101.5
106.5
112.3
115.7

16.0
16.7

IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES OVER 6-MONTH SPANS

1953. . .
1954. ..
1955...
1956.. .

4. 1

ERIOD

12.2
12.5
12.9

12.0
12.1
12.6

984...

D

Annual

12.2
12 .3
12 .9

1953. ..
1954...
1955 . . .

1976 . . .
1 9 7 7 . ..

IV Q

III Q

732. UNITED KINGDOM--INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES (u)
( 1982-84-100)

4 .3

29.4
30. 5
31.6
33.0
34.5
35.3

0.8
5.2
0.0
3.8
8. 1
3 . 3

108.9
113.4

1987...
NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1948.
Annual figures are averages of the centered changes.




Percent changes are centered on the 4th month of the span.

101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

733C. C A N A D A - - C H A N G E IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES OVER 6-MONTH
(ANNUAL RATE, P E R C E N T )
-0.8
0. 0
0. 0
0.8
3.2
4.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
2 .2
0.7
2 .2
2.8

-0.8
0. 8
0.8
0.8
2 .4
4.7
0. 0
0.0
0.7
1.5
2 .2
1 .4

10.3
9.2

981.
982.
983 .
986 .
987 .

5.2
4.4

5.0
9.0
12 .2
8.2
5.1
8.9
9 .2
10.0
9 .7
12 .2
12.0
3.5
4.6
4 .4
4.8

0. 0
0. 0
1.5
1 .4
3. 5
4. 1
4.6
3.8
6.1
2 .9

9.5
5.8
9 .6
9.1
10.0
10.2
13.1
11.7
4.3
3.3
4.2
2.9

0.8
0. 0
-0.7

2 .3

3.8
8.3
12 . 5
9.8
4.6
8. 8
10.8
9 .3
10.8
11.9
10.9
5.2
3. 1
3.4
3.2

0.0
2 .5
0.0
5.0
3.2
1 .5
0.8
0.8
0. 0
2 .2

2 .8
3.4
6 .0
3. 1
5.5
2.3

0.0
0.8
0.0
2.5
3 .2
0. 0
1.5
1 .5
-0.7
1 .5
0.7
0.7
1 .4
3.4
5 .3
3.8
4.8
1 .7

1 .7
0.8
0.0
4. 1
2 .4
0.0
3.1
2 .3
0.0
2 .2
2 .2
1.4
2 .8
3.4
4.6
5 .0
4 .2
1 .7

6.0

10.4
8.9
11.0
12 .0
9 .4
6 .0
2 .3
2 .8
3.6

0.8
0.8

1 .4
3.5
3.4
4.6
5.0
4.8
1 .7
3 .4
5 .4
9.7
12.0
12.6
6 . 1
9.3
8.5
9 .0
12 . 4
12.2
7.3
5.1
3 .5
3.5
4. 5

3.
1964.

9.
980.
981.
982 .
983.

50.0
50.7
52.2
54.3
57 .3
60.9
65.4
69.4
73 .0
75.9
78.1
80.4
84.4
89.4
95.2
99.2
101.9
104.1
105.5

36.8
37.2
38.4
38.6
39 .9
40.0
40.6
41.5
43 . 0
44.3
45.3
46 . 3

54.7
57 .6
61.3
66.0
69.7
73.5
76.1
78.5
80. 7
85.4
90.0
95.4
99 . 3
102 .2
104.5
105.2

50.1
5 1.0
52.
55 .
57.
61.
66 .
70.
73.
76.
78.
81 .
85.
90.
95.
99 .
102 .
104.9
104.9

36 .8
37 .2
38.4
38.7
40.0
39.9
40.8
41.5
43 . 1

50. 1
5 1.1
52.7
55.3
58.0
62.1
66 . 5
70.6
74. 1
76.7
79.0
81.5
86 .2
91.3
95.8
99 . 5
102 . 4
105.0
104.9

36. 8
37 .2
38.4
38.9
40.3
40.0
41 . 1
41.8
43 . 1
44.3
45.3
46 .6

50.1
5 1.2
52.7
58.2
62.5
67.0
7 1.0
74.2
76 .9
79.1
81.8
86 .6
91.7
96 . 4
99.7
102 .5
105 . 1
104.9

4.2
5 .2
6 .8

50.1
1 .2
2.9

50.
5 1 .
52.

50.0
51.0
52.9

1 .0
2. 1

4.4
3.6
0. 0
5. 1
7 . 1
9 . 1
10.9
9.9
6 .0
9 .2
7 .7
9 .8
12.2
10.8
6.9
4.8
4. 1
4.7
5 .4

100.
102.

50.0
5 1.0
52.9

92.9
97.6
100.8
102 .5
104.7
104.2

735C. WEST GERMANY--CHANGE IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES OVER 6-MONTH
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
953 .
954.

-1.1
2 .8
0.5
2 . 1
0. 5
3.6
0. 0
1.0

-3.7
2.8
0.5

-2 .7
1 .6
1 .6

1.5
1.5

-3.2
1 .6
3.8

2 . 1
3 .6
-1.5

-0.5
3.5

4.6

1 .0

2 .0

1 .0

3.4

3.4
1.9

3.4

0. 0

2.3

1.8

2 .7
4.8

2 .4
1 .4
0.9
4.0

0.9

0.8
0. 0
0.8
4. 1
3.9
1 .5
0.8
1.5

-0.5
0.5
0. 0
1.1
2.9
4.4

1 .4

7
7
6
5
3

.4
.9
.4
.2
.5

3.4

2 .6
5.7
3.5
7.3

983.
984.
3.3
-0.8

1 .8
2 .3
-1.3

3 .3
1 .4
1 .6
1.5
1.9

NOTE: These s e r i e s c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t
Annual f i g u r e s a r e averages o f t h e c e n t e r e d changes.

102



5 .0
7 . 0
5. 1
3 .7
1 .2
1 .0
-1 . 1

4
6 .7
5 .5
4. 1
0. 8
0
-0 .6

1 .7
1 .7
1 .7
3.0

1 .7
4.4
6 .3
11.2
8.0
8. 7
7 .0
9 .8
13.5
11.0
5.7
5.4
4 .2
5 .2
4. 3

IV Q

3.6
4.2
8.8
12.0
9.0
5.9
9 .3

0.8
0.3
3.3
2.3
1 .5
1.0
0.8
-0.5
2 .0
1 .5
1.4
2 .3
3.4
5.3
3.1
5.1

4.9
9.5

10*. 0
9.9
13.1

3.3
3 .5

39.4
39.7
40.6
40.9
42.0
43 . 1
44.4
45.5
47 • 2

2.3
3 .2
4.6
5.7
7.5

37.2
38. 0
38.8
39.5
40.0
40.8
41.2
42.3
43.5
45 .0
45.9
47 .7

50. 1
51.2
53.2

0.4
1.3
3.3

50.6
51.6
53.7

9 .9
4 .4
8.5
2.2
4.8
7.5
9.4
83.6

60.3
65 . 0

87.9

94.2
101.2
103.4
105.2
104.0

Annual

4.5
4.3
1.0
9.5
12 .0
11.3
5.9
9 .0
8.5
9 . 1
12 .2
11.4

3.8
4.8

10.
11.

13.
11 .
5.
5.0
4.6
4.9
4.4

0.1
0.7
0.2
3.0
2.7
2 .0
1 .4
1 .2
0.4
1 .7
1 .9
1 .8
3.3
3.4
4.3
4. 1
4.6

5.5
9.5

9.5
11.7
11.9
8.7
4.9
3.7
4.2
4.2

4 .2
6 .2
5 .0
3.2
1.8
0.2

-1.5

77.7
79.6
84.0
88.6
94.5
98.9
101.5
103.5
105.3
104.2

36.5
37 .2
38.1
38.7
39.8
40.0
40.7
41 .4
42.8

36.
37.

4.3
5.3

50.9
52.4

57.6
6 1.3
65.8
69.7
73.4
76 . 1
78.5
80.7
85 .2
90.0
95.4
99 .2
102.1
104. 5
105.2

0.1
1 .2
2.8

36.8
37 . 3
38.4
39.3
39.8
40.5
40.9
42 .0
43 .0
44. 1
45.3
47 .0
48.5

37.2
37 .9
38.7
39.5
39.9
40.7
41 . 1
42.2
43.3
44.7
45.7
47 .5
48.9

36.8
36 .8
37 .4
38.4
39.1
39.9
40.3
40.9
41.9
43.1
44.3
45.4
46 .8
48.5

50.0
51.1
52.9

50.4
51.4
53 . 4

50.1
51.1
52.9

59 .0
63.1

102 .
105 .
104.

87.2
93.0
97.7
100.7
102 . 6
104.9
104.4

87 .9
94.2
98.6
101.2
103.4
105 .2
104. 1

58.7
62 . 8
67.2
71.2
74.2
77.0
79.0
82.3
86 .7
92.2
97.1
100.2
102.7
104.9
104.6

SPANS
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
0.5
0.5
4.9
0.0
2 .6
1 .5
-0.5
2.0
2 .9
3.7
2 .7

-2.7
1 .6
3.8
2 . 1
2 .6
-1.0
3. 5
1. 5
1 .4
2 .3
4. 1
3. 1

3.4
1 .6
1 .6
2.0
3.9
6 . 1
4.3
6 .5
8. 0

3.9

3.5
6 .0

1980.
981 .

II Q

A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD

59.7
63.6
68.1
72 . 0
1 U.I
77.4
79.1
83.3
87.3
93.8
98.4
101.0
103.2
105.0
104. 1

36.8
37.2
38.4
39.2
39.5
40.4
40.8

7 .2
1 .6
4.3
7.3
9.4
87 .0
92.0
97.5
100. 1
102 .9
105 .2
105.0

I Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

37 , 2
38.4
39.3
39.7
40.6
40.9
42.0
42 .9
44.0
45.3
46 . 9

•3.1

Dec.

©

36 . 8
37.
38.
39 .
40.
40.
41 .
42 .
43 .
44.
45.
47 .

•0.3

Nov.

0.0
-0.8
0.0
2 .4
2 .3
1 .5
1 .5
1.5
1 .5
1.5
1 .4
2 . 1
4 .9
2 .0
3.8

0.0
0.8

1 .5

735. WEST GERMANY--INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES
( 1982-84=100)
37
36.4
37.2
38.0
38.7
39.7
40.0
40.8
41.4
hi .1
43.9
45 .2
46 . 1
48.0

Oct.

SPANS

8.1

8. 5
6 .4

-2.5
2 .4
0. 3

-1.5
1 .4
3.6
1 .0
2 .4
0.8
0.3
2 .0
2 .9

O.*8
3. 1

-2 . 1
2 .0
2 .2

2 .5
3.4
0.3
0.1

2 .7
2 .2
1 .2
-0.8

3.3
4. 0
1.8
3.2
4.0
1. 1
2.0
1 .7
6 .2
4.8
7 . 1
6 .3

4.0

3 .8
2 .6
2 .0

3.6
3.2

5.9

5 . 1
6 .9
4.2
3 .8
2 .2
1 . 1
-0.8

5•4
5 .7
3. 1
3 .0
2 .7
1.1

0. 0

5
6
5
3
2

.6
.0
.0
.1
.2
3 .3
0 .2
0

5.6
7.2
4.1
2.3

2.5
4.8
5.8
7.3

2 .4
4.3

-0.4
0. 0

0.9
-1.2

1.9
0.4
-1.1

(APRIL 1988)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
736 .

9
9

9_

9
9i
9t
9(
9

:9
9

4. . .
5...

Apr.

My
a

June

July

FRANCE- - I N D E X OF CONSUMER
( 1982-84=100)

Aug.

PRICES

Oct.

Sept.

Nov.

FOR

PERIOD

. 4. *
14.(
14.

1
1
1
2

17.9
19.0
19 . 7
20.5

17.6
18.5
19 . 3
19 . 7

2
2
2
2

2 2.4
22.9
2 3.5
24.2

17 A
19 . (
19."
20.4
2 1.
22 . _
22 A
23 A24 .

17
8
9
9
0

2.3
2.9
3.4
4.0

17.2
18..
19..
19 . "
2 0 t
21 A

25.9
27 . 4
29.0
30.7
32 . 6

6.1
7.6
9.1
0.8
2.9

2
2
2
3 1'/ 3
3

26 . 3
27 . 8
29.3
31.1
33.3

26.2
27 . "
29.2
31 .
33.

25.
27 .
28 .
30.
32 .

40.4
44.7
49 . 0
53.8
58.7
65.2
74.1
84.4
92 . 9
102.3
109 . 6
115.4
18.0

0.8
5.0
9.5
4.2
9.3
6.0
4.9
5.4
3.4
10 3 . 1
11 0 . 3
11 5.7
8.2

4
4
4
5
5
6
t
7
86.2
9 4.3
103.5
110.6
115.9
118.4

41.6
45 .6
50.1
54.6
59 . 9
66 . 9
76.1
86.7
95.1
103.9
110.9
116.1
118.5

41.2
45.
49.8
54.^
59.(
66 . 1
75 . .
86 .
94. 3
103.
110.(
115.
118.

39 .
43 .
48 .
52 .
37 .
33 .
7 2 .
81 .
91 .
100 .
108. 0
114.3

14.5
14.8

14.3
14.7

14.3
14.8

14.5
14.9

4.6
4.8

14.6
14.8

.
.
.
.

7 .0
8 . 4
9. 3
9 . 7

17.2
18.6
19.3
19.7

17.5
18.6
19.3
19.7

17 . 6
18.6
19. 3
19.7

17.6
18.5
19.3
19.7

17.7
18.5
19.3
19.6

17.8
18.6
19 . 4
19.8

17.8
18.7
19.5
19.9

17.9
18.7
19 . 6
20.0

7.9
8.9
9.6
0.2

3* * "
4*.!!

1 . 5
2 .5
3 . 0
3.6

2 1 6
22.5
23 0
23.6

l i b
22.5
23 1
23.7

2 1 7
22.5
2 3 1
23.8

2 1 7
22.5
2 3 2
23.9

2 1 9
22.6
2 3 5
23.8

22 0
22.7
2 3 3
23.9

22 1
22.7
2 3 3
23.9

22 2
22 . 8
2 3 3
24.0

5 .2
6 .6
8.1
9.5
1 .2

25.3
26.6
28.2
29.7
31.4

25.3
26.8
28.3
29.8
31.5

25 . 3
26.9
28.5
30.0
31.6

25.4
27.0
28.6
30.2
31.8

25.5
27.1
28.7
30.3
32.0

25.6
27.2
28.8
30.4
32.2

25.7
27.3
28.9
30.6
32.4

6 .7
42 . 1
• 6.1
0.3
4.8
?0.4
8.2
7 .0
37 . 6
6 . 0
1 34.6
1 11.4
1 16 . 1

37.2
42.4
46.4
50.5
55.2
60.8
68.9
77.7
88.5
96.7
105.3
112.0
115.9

37.7
42.7
46 . 8
51.0
55.8
6 1.4
69.7
7 8.4
89.6
97.6
106.0
112.8
116.1

38.2
43 . 1
47 . 2
5 1.7
56 . 3
62 . 0
70.6
79.5
90.6
98.8
106 . 7
113.6

38.7
43.4
47.5
52.2
56.9
62.6
7 1.2
80.2
91.3
99.5
107.2
114.2
16.9

39.1
43.7
47.7
52.6
57.3
63.1
7 1.7
81.0
92.0
100.1
107 . 7
114.6
117.2

39.6
44.0
48.2
53.1
58.0
64.0
72.7
82.4
92.3
100.9
108.5
115.1
117.4

40.0
44.3
48.5
53.4
58.4
64.7
73.4
83.4
92.5
101.5
109.1
115.2
117.5

0

#

f,

736C.

FRANCE--CHANGE

IN INDEX OF CONSUMER P R I C E S
(ANNUAL RATE,
PERCENT)

OVER

6 - MONTH

2 .

-5.4
1.4
2.8

- 1 . 4
0 . 0
2 . 8

11.1
7.0

13.c
5 .

18.3
3 . 4

19.5
1.1

23 .

4.2
4.1

5.3
4.1

3 .
5 #

3 . 1
6 . 2

3 . 1
8.3

2.7
3.5
2 .6
0.8
4.0

5.6
1.8
2.6
2.6
1.7
4.0

5.6
2.7
1.7
2.5
2.5
4.8

5
3
2
1

5
3
1
1
4

6.2

6.2

6.1

5 .

8.6
15.6
9.2
8.8
1.0
0.7
2.5
2.9

10.4
14.8
9.6
9.2
10.4
9.9
12,0
12.4

8.5

7.5

2.8
4.3
0.0

4.2
5.8
1.4

1 .4
2 .8
-1.4

0.0
0.0
1.4

-4.1
1.4
2.8

- 5 .4
1 ,L

957 . . .
958. . .

0.0
21.1

5 .5
12.2

8.3
10.9

3. 1
3. 1
!

959 . . .
960. . .
961 . . .
962...
963. . .
964...
965. . .
966. . .
967 . . .
968...
969. . .

5 .6
4. 3
1 .0
5.0
5.8
1.8
1 .8
3.4
3 .4
4. 1

0.0
19.5
6.8
4.3
1.0
5.0
3.8
1.8
2.6
4.3
2.5
4.1

2.7
17.8
8.0
4.3
0.0
4.9
3.8
1.8
5.3
2.6
1.7
4.0

97 1 . . .

6.3

6.2

6.9

973...
974...
975. . .
976 . . .
977.. .
978. . .
979. . .
980 . . .
981. . .
982 . . .

4.9
15.8
11.6
10.5
9.5
8.3
9 . 7
14.8

6.1
16.9
11.0
9.9
9.0
8.6
10.0
14.3

6.1
17.3
9.8
8.9
9.8
9.7
10.6
14.5

8.0
16 . 4
9.2
9 .3
0.6
1 .2
1 .6
2 .7

12 . 3

11.4

11.6

0.0

5

7

23.3
23.8

25 .
26 .
28.
29 .
31 . 4
33 .
37 .
42 . 4
46 .1•
5 O.(
55. 3
60.
6 8.
77 .
88 .
96.8
105.3
112.1
116.0

25.4
27 . 0
28.6
30.2
31.8

25.7
27.3
28.9
30.6
32.4

38.7
43.4
47.5
52.2
56.8
62 . 6
7 1.2
80.2
91.3
99.5
107.2
114.1
116.9

40.0
44.3
48.6
53.4
58.4
64.6
73.4
83.4
92.6
101.6
109.1
115.2
117.6

2 1.8

AVERAGE
-9.2
0.0
1.4

0.0
2.9
1.4

23 .
23.6

17.8
18.7
19.5
19.9
2 1 0
22.1
22.7
2 3.3
23.9

6 .8
6 . 0
1 .6

6.6
6.0
1.2

737 .

6.9
5.4
2.4

9 .8
9 .9
10.4
10.5
10.9
11.1
11.1
11.4
11.5
11.8
12.7
13.5

9.8
9 .c
0 .4

966 . . .

FOR

-1.9
1.8
1.5

2 1.9
6.8

24.4
5.6

6 .

0.0
5.1

-1.0
7.1

0.9
19.5
6.8
4.3
0.7

8.3
10.0
3.7
4.2
3.8

4.6
2 .7
0.0
3 .4
5.0
6 .4

3.
1 . 3
2 .
3 . 4
5 . 3
7 .

2.7
2.7
2.6
3.4
6.6
6.3

2.7
2.6
3.5
2.5
5.8
7.1

4.5
1.8
3.2
3.4
2.5
4.1

5.6
2.4
2.6
2.6
1.7
4.3

23.3
5.6
4.7
0.0
6.1
4.5
3.0
2.4
2.9
3.1
6.1
6.9
6.4
5.4
5.3

12.4
9.6
5.0
2.9
4.3
4.6
4.6
2.5
2.5
2.8
3.6
5.4
5.8
5.4
5.8
9.8
14.6
9.8
9.5
9.2
9.8
12.4
13.2

4

5 . 4

5 .4

5 . 3

5.3

5.3

6.6
6.5

5.0
6.2

1 1 .3
14 .
8 .
9 .
9 .

10.2
13.3
8. 9
10.4
9 .4
10.1
13.2
12.8

10.8
13.7
9.4
10.8
8. 1
10.0
12.7
12 . 9

12 . 3
13. 3
9. 3
9 m 3
1 . 3
9 . 2
4

14.3
12.4
10.2
8.8
8.0
9.1
14.1
12.9

14.7
11.7
10.1
8.8
8.4
10.1
15.0
12 . 5

5.7
16.7
10.8
9.8
9.4
8.9
0.1
4.5

9.0
15.6
9.3
9.1
10.7
10.6
12.0
12.7

10.7
13.7
8.9
10.2
9.0
10.2
13.0
12.7

13.8
12.4
10.0
9.0
7.9
9.5
14.4
12.9

i c n
1 5 . 9

1 3 , 4

7.8

9 .

1

10.0

10.4

1.8

8.7

7 . 2

9 . 8

y . 0
6.9
5.4
2.4

8 . 8

7 . 8

9 . 3

7 . 1

5 . 9

6 . 6

3.7

1.7

4 . 2

3 . 0

4 . 1

2 . 7

A
A
A
."

.6
.6
.7
.7
. 1

1 . 3

10.
13. 3
12 . 3
15.

7 .4

14

.

13.

7 . 3
4 .
2 .

:R

7.2
3.7
2 .9

PRICES

6 .8
3.3
3 . 1

6 . 2

5 . 8

5 . 7

2 . 5

1 . 6

1 . 0

4 . 5

4 . 3

3 . 6

9 . 9

9 . 9

6.6
5.9
1.3

AVERAGE
9.8
0.2
10.4
0.7
0.8
1.3
1.0
1.4
1.6
2.2
3.0
3.9

9.8
10.2
10.4
10.7
10.8
11.3
11.1
11.4
11.6
12.2
3 3.0
13.9

9.8
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.9
1 .2
1 . 1
1 .4
1 .6
2 .2
3. 1
4.0

9 . 9

1.
1 .
1.,
1 .5
1 .?
2 .c
3.5

9.9
10.2
10.4
10.7
10.8
11.3
11.1
11.3
11.6
12.0
13.0
13.8

0.2
0.4
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.7
2.3
3.3
4.0

10.2
10.4
10.8
1 1.0
1 1.
1 1.
1 1.
1 1. 7
12. 7
1 3. 3

10.2
10.5
10.8
1 1 .
1 1 .
11.:
.1.5
1 1 A
12.5
13,4

14. 1

14.7

4 . 7

4.7

4.7

4.8

14.8

4.8

14.8

4.8

4.8

96 8 ! ! !
969. . .

15'.5
15.7

b'.l

5.5
5.7

5.5
5 .9

5.5
5.9

15.5
16.0

5.5
6.1

15.5
16.1

5 . 5
6 . 1

197 1 . . .
1972...
1973. . .
19 7 4 . . .
975...
9 76. . .
9 77 . . .
978...

17.3
18.0
19 . 6
22.0
27.5
30.5
37.3
42. 7
48.3
38.5

17.
18.,

17.7
18.5
20.6
24.1
28.8
33.3
40.0
44.9
5 1.6
62.1
74.9
86.3
100.1
111.3
120.9
128.6

n'.i
8.6
0.7
.4.7
8.9
33.5
+ 0.3
+5.3

17.7
18.8
20.7
25.2
29.1
33.8
40.7
45.4

17.8
18.9
_0.9
26 . 0
-9.3
34.4
+ 1.0
46 . 1

1.9
33.2
5.7
87.7
101.1
111.6
12 1 . 4
128.6

52.5
63.9
76.2
89.2
101.5
112.0
12 1 . 7
128.8

14.2

9.8
9 .9
0.4
0.6
0.8
1 . 1
1 . 1
1 . 3
1.5
1 .9
2 .8
3.5

9.9
10.1
10.4
10.7
.0.8
11.3
11.1
11.3
11.6
2.1
3.0
3.7

D9.9

82.0
95.4
107 . 4
116.6
125 . 9

9

<

2

.4

7 . 8
31 .

38.

9 A
1 .2
83.
96 . "
108.,
117.8
126 . 8

49 . 6
60.2
72 . 2
83 . 8
97 . 6
109.2
118.6
127.2

NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1948.
Annual figures are averages of the centered changes.




T

/

i

/
n
1 4 . 0
9 . 4

1

15 . C

4.7

5.5
6.2

5.
15.
16.

5 ."
.6 . _

5 .*5
5 .7

14.8
15.3
5.5
15.9

7.9
9.1
1.2
6.5
9.7
5.6
1.4
6.6

17 .
19 .
2 1 .3
27 .
30. 0
36 . 3
42 .
47 . 0

FOR

18.
19 . L
2 1 "

7 * 3
18.2
19.8

30.
36.

7 .7
31.1
38.0

17.6
18.4
20.4
23.7
.8.5
33.1
39 . 6

PERIOD

9 . 8

9 . 9

1 0 . 2

1 0 . 2

1 0 . 1

1 0 . 4

1 0 . 4

1 0 . 4

1 0 . 8

1 0 . 7

1 0 . 7

9 . 8

1 0 . 8

1 1 . 0

1 0 . 9

1 1 . 3

1 1 . 1

1 1 . 2

1 1 . 1

1 1 . 3

1 1 . 1

1 1 . 4

1 1 . 4

1 1 . 4

1 1 . 6

1 1 . 7

1 1 . 6

1 2 . 2

1 2 . 5

1 2 . 2

1 3 . 0

1 3 . 3

1 3 . 0

1 3 . 9

1 4 . 1

1 3 . 8

1 4 . 8

1 4 . 9

1 4 . 8

1 5 . 4

1 5 . 5

1 5 . 3

1 5 . 5

1 5 . 6

1 5 . 5

1 6 . 1

1 6 . 2

1 6 . 0

1 6 . 8

17.6
18.4
-0.5
23.7
-8.5
33.2
39.7
+4.6
1.1
3 1 .6
4.2
85.5
99.5
110.7
120.3
128.1

I

©

9.9
0.1
0.4
0.8
0.8
1.3
1.1
1.3
1.6
2.1
3.0
3.7

7 .4
8.4
0.2
3 . 2
8.2
32 . 7
39 . 2
44. 1
0.4
1 .0
3.2
34.5
)8.5
1 0. 0
119.6
127 . 6

PERIOD
-1.8
0.5
2.3

9.9
9.9
0.4
0 • 7
0 . 8
1 .2
1 .0
1 .3
1 .5
2 . 1
3. 0
3 .6

7 .4
8.3
0.0
3.0
7.8
31.7
38.7
43 .6

3 .

-7.1
0.9
1.9

9.8
9 .9
0.4
0.7
0.8
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.5
2.0
2.9
3.6

o.e
0.8

c

-0.9
1.4
0.9

( 1982-84 = 100)
953 . . .
954. . .
955...
956...
957 . . .
1958. . .
959 . . .
960...
961 . . .
962. . .
963 . . .
964. . .

c

17.2
3.4
4.7
3.1
6.5
4.2
5.3
3.3
1.4
2.3
4.1
6.4
5.3
4.5
5.4

3 .
6 .

7.1
4.8
3.3

ITALY-

j '

2!"

2.3
4.3
0.9

IU.B

6.5
5.9
1.2

A
. "
. L
.c

1.4
0 . 0
1.4

5*3

6 .7
5 .7
1.4

14 .

SPANS

-6 . 7
1 .4
1 . 4

953. . .
954. . .
955...

1979...
1980...
1981 . . .
1982...
1983...
1984. . .
1985...
1986...
1987 . . .

Annual

14.4
14.8

14.6
14.9

. .
. .
. .
..

IV Q

14.5
14.8

14.5
14.8

984.
985 .
986.
987.

III Q

14.5
14.8

14.5
14.8

9 4. . .
9 75. . .
9 76 . . .
9 77 . . .
9 78. . .
9 79. . .
980. . .
981 . . .
982.. .
983 . . .
984. . .
985. . .
986. . .
987...

11 Q

4.7
4.8

14.5
14.8

9 6 ...
9
9 8!!.
9 9. . .
9 0. . .
9 1. . .
9 2. . .

lQ

AVERAGE

4.6
4.7

8. .
9 ..
0. .
1 . .

Dec.

©

1 7 . 2

1 6 . 8

1 7 . 7

1 7 . 9

1 7 . 6

1 8 . 8

1 9 . 2

1 8 . 6

2 0 . 8

2 1 . 4

2 0 . 6

6.3
8.7
2.3
104.5
113.9
123.6
129.9

67. 8
80 . 0
93 . 5
105 . 6
114. 5
124. 5
130.4

Percent changes are centered on the 4th month of the spat

68. (
80 A
94.
106 .
115.^
125 .
130.8

3 9.4
71.1
33.0
)6 . 6
1 38.4
1 7.7
1 6.6

3 1 .6
74. 1
35 . 4
?9 . 4
1 10.7
1 _0.3
1 28. 1

2 4 . 6

3 0 . 0

2 8 . 8

3 6 . 2

4 0 . 7

4 1 . 9

4 0 . 1

4 7 . 0

4 5 . 1

5 2 . 7

5 .3
7 .2
0.4
102 . 8
112.8
122.2
129 . 2

2 6 . 9

3 3 . 9

4 5 . 6

47 .

2 5 . 3
2 9 . 1

5 5 . 8

5 2 . 1

6 4 . 1

6 7 . 6

6 3 . 2

7 6 . 4

7 9 . 9

7 5 . 4

8 9 . 1

9 3 . 3

3 3 . 6

8 7 . 7

1 0 1 . 8

1 0 5 . 4

1 0 0 . 8

1 1 2 . 1

1 1 4 . 6

1 1 1 . 4

1 2 1 . 8

1 2 4 . 5

1 2 1 . 0

1 2 8 . 9

1 3 0 . 4

1 2 8 . 5

(APRIL 1988)

103

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Q

Dec.

ITALY--CHANGE IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES OVER 6-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
19 5 3 ...
1954. ..
1955...
1956 . . .
1957 ...
1958.
1959. ..
1960...
1961 ...
1962 . . .
1963. . .
1964. . .
1965 ...
1966 . . .
1967 ...
1968. ..
1969. ..
1970. ..
1971. ..
1972 ...
1973 ...
1974. . .
1975...
1976 ...
1977. . .
1978. ..
1979. ..
1980.. .
1981 ...
1982 . . .
1983. . .
1984. . .
1985...
1986. . .
1987 . . .

0.0
0.0
4.0

2. 1
2 .0
4.0

5 .6

7 .8
0. 0
5 .5

1.8

0.0

1 .8

0. 0

5 .9
1.9

0. 0
4.1
4 .0
3. 8
0. 0
3. 6
0. 0
0. 0

0. 0
6 .2
0.0
1.9
0.0
3.6
0.0
1.8

0.0
6 .2

3.7

3 .5
3.6

1 .8
1 .7

0.0
3 .9
5 . 0
3.5
4.5

21.
19.
22.3
20.2
14.8
14.2
10.7
11.2
6.6

5 .6
12 .8
23.3
11.3
20.0
17.5
12 . 1

13.
10.

0.0
5 .2
2 .4

197 2
973
974.
975
976.
197 7 .
7

11 .5
27 . 1
10 .4
20.6
17.9
13.5
16.8
18.2
18.9
16 .0
14. 1
9 .8
10.0
5.5

7.8
11.2
31.6
11.7
2 0.0
12 .7
12 . 7
2 1.4
18.6
15.9
19 .4
12.4
6 .8
6.3
4.0

1 .9
5 .6
-3.5

7 .4
1 .8

3.6

3.5

5.2

1 .8
11.8
7 .8
5.8

.6
.8
.0
.8
.8
.3

1 .0
4. 1
2 . 1
2 .7
2 .3
0.4

0.7
2 .0
4. 0
5 .8
0.6
4.9
-0.6
0.6
2 . 3
5 .8
8.2
5.6

11.0
13.0

12 .2
22.8
12.4
11.4
2 1.6
2 1.6
16.0
18.1
11.7
6 .9
7 .2
3 .4

11.3
23.2
11.2
12.7
25 .2
2 0.8
15.5
16 .5
11.1
7 .4
6 .0
3.9

12.7
24.9
10.5
13.5
25 .6
20.5
15.7
14.3
11.5
7 .8
6 .0
3.0

5.5
5.2
1.5
4.3
2 3.5
20.1
16.1
14.8
11.4

3. 3

5.7
12 .0
2 1.1

5.3
12 . 1
2 1.6
11.4
20.5
18.9
12 . 1
17 . 3
2 1.0
20.5
14.7
14. 1
10.8
10.7
6 .2

19 .9
19.6
19 .6
2 0.2
20.5
21.0
2 1.4
2 1.9
23.

18.2
20. 1
19.8
19.8
20.
20.
20.
2 1.
22.

26.3
27.5

65.9

27.0
27 .5
29.2
31.0
31.5
33.6
36 . 3
38.2
40.8
42 .9
47 .9
59.4
66 . 1

78.2
81.3
84.4
91.2

78.0
81.6
85 . 1
91.5

26.6
27 .7
29.8
31.1
32 .5
34.9
36.7
38.7
41.9
43 .4
49 .7
60.8
67.2
73.7
79.4
82 .6
85 .3
92.7

26 .8
28.2
30.2
31.3
33 .0
34.6
36.7
39 .4
42 .0
43 .8
49 .9
62.2
68.2
74.2
79.9
82 .8
86 .4
92 .8

26 .8
28.0
29.9
31.1
33.0
34.6
36.6
39 .4
41.6
43 .6
50.3
62.7
67.9
74.2
79.1
82 .0
86 .0
93 .0

26 .
28.
30.
31.
33.
34.
36.
39 .
41.
44.0
52.0
62 .9
67.8
75.1
78.9
81.9
86 .6
92 .5

99 .5
100.4
102.7

99.8
101.2
103.4

100.7
102 .9

98.7
100.4
103.1

25.7
26.8
28.9
30. 5
32 . 0
33.5
34.8
37 .8
40.0
41.9
45 .0
55.5
63.6
69.6
76 . 1
79.7
82.1
88.0
93.8
96 .8

26

30.3
31.8
33.4
34.6
37 .6
0. 0
1.7
4.4
4.2
3.2

26 . 3
27 . 5
29.8
31.2
32.1
33.7
35.5
38.4
40.6
42.7
46 .7
57.7
65.4

65.9

75.7
79.2
82 . 0
87 .3
93.8
96 .8
98.9
100.7
103.4

76.1
79.6
81.8
88 .0
93.6
96 .7
98. 5
101.4
103.0

76 .6
80.3
88. 7

77.8
81.1
83.5
90.2

78.5
81.7
84.3
91.0

96.8
99 . 1
101.6
103.4

97.5
99.5
101.8
104.1

97 .9
100.5
102.5

97 .9
99 .9
101.8

27 .5
29.4
31.0
31.5
33.4
35.5
40.9
42.9

97.3
99.5
102 .0

36 . 3
38.1
40.8
43 .2
48.3
60.0
66 .0
72.0
78.1
81.8
84.3
91.4

99 .3
101.1

101.2
104.9

JAPAN--CHANGE

IN INDEX 01 CONSUMER PRICES OVER 6-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RA1 E, PERCENT)

10.4
1 .0
-1.0
1 .0
6. 1
0.0
3.8
7.3

13. 1
4.5
9 .5

20.1
10.1
5 .9
5.9

2 .2
1 .4
0.4

0.6
1 .2
1 .6
1 .4
0. 0

9.3
3. 0
1.0
1 .2
2 .6
2.1
-0.6

NOTE: These s e r i e s c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h
Annual f i g u r e s are a v e r a g e s o f t h e c e n t e r e d c h a n g e s .

104



19 . 3
0.0
-2.0

13.8
0
-1 0
0
6 .0
2 .0
1 .9
2 .8
7.3
5.1
5.5
7 .6

6 .4
6.3
8.5
3.6
3 .3
2 .2
-0.2
2 .9
0.0
1948.

3.7
8.7
5.3
17.8
16. 3
8 .9
9 .7
5.8
6.8
3 .4
4.0
1.0
0.8
0.6
-0.6

17.5
9.8

-1.7

20.2
20. 1
17 . 5
16 .6
12 .6
8.6
4.6

6.5
4.3
3.5
1 .8
2.2
1 .7
-0.4

19 .2
20. 1
19.6
19.8
20.7
20.7
2 1.0
21.9
23.1
24.6
26 .6
27.6
29.4
31.0
31.9
34.0
36.4
38.3
41.2
43 .2
48.6
60.1
66 .4
72.7
7 8.5
82 .0

101.9
104.4
104.6

6.5
32.8
10.5
10.2
10.4
3.1
-0.5
8.4
4 .4

3.9

11.
28.

14.
27.

6 .3
17.3
17.7
9 .6
9. 1
6 .0
5 .4
6. 1

0.4

3.8
1.2
-0.6
; 4th

19.7
20.2
20.6
2 1.2
2 1.4
21.9
23.8
24.9
26 . 8
28.1
30.0
31.3
33.0
34.6
36 . 7
39.5
41.7
43 .8
50.7
62.6
68.0
74.5
79.3
82 .2
86 .3
92.8
96 .8
99.1
100.8
103.1
104.8
104.6

19 . 0
20.0
19.8

29.5
30.9
32 .2
34.0
35.9
38.5
40.9
42 . 9
47 .9
59 . 0
65.9
72.2
78.0
81.3
84.4
90.9
95 . 4
98.0
99 . 8
102.1
104.2
104.8

12 . 0
-1.1
-0.1

6 . 1
8.5

1 .6
0.6

11.
21.

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

5 .5
5.7
14.5
2 0.8
8. 7
9 .2
3 .9
3.0

5.2
3 .4
3.3

18.7
20.1
19.9
20.0
20.5
20.6
20.9
21.8
22 .6
24.6
26 .6
27.5
29.5
31.0
31.8
33.7
35.5
38. 3
40.7
42.8
47 . 3
57.9
65 .7
7 1.8
78.2
81.4
84.1
90.8
95.3
97.8
100. 0
102 .0
104.2
105 . 1

5 .2
-3. 0
5.2
3.0
-1.9
.0

15.6
-2.0
-1.0

5.8
4.3

10.5
16.7
19.1
13.2
24 .4
11.1
13.5
24.8
20.5
15.8
15 .2
11.3
8.0
6.3
3.5

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
19 .9
19.8
19.6
20.0
20.5
21.1
2 1.4
2 1.9
23.8

18.8
20.1
19.7

9 .3
10.4
30. 0
11.8
20.8
12 .7
11.9
20.8
20.3
15.9
18.8
12 . 0
6.6
6.6
3.6

(u)

20.2
20.2
20.0
20.3
20.8
2 1.4
2 1.4
22 .0
23.7

26 . 0

32 . 1
33.7
35.1
38.0
40. 1
42.2
45.8
56 . 3
64.1

10.1
9.0
30.9

19.5
2 0.0
19 .6
20.0
20.7
2 0.8
2 1.1
22.0
23.2

25.7
26 .7
28.8
30.5
32 .0
33.5
34.8
37 .7
40.0
41.9
44.8
55.9
63.5

20.1
19.8
19 .8
20.2
20.4
20.8
2 1.6
22.3

10.0
11.0

1 .3
2 .6
6.3
6.0
4.5
8.6
16.0

19.1
2 0.0
19.7
19.8
20.8
20.8
2 1.2
22 .0
23.1

18.6
20.1
19.8
19.8
20.6
20.5
20.8
21.8
22 .

25.5

3.9

. 1
. 0
.9
.9
. 7
. 5

19.0
20.2
19.6
19.6
20.6
20.6
20.8
2 1.8
23.0

18.6
20.2
20.1
19.9
20.4
2 0.5
2 1.0
21.7
22 .7

...
...
..
...
..
. .

978. . .
979. . .
1980. . .
1981 . . .
1982 . . .
1983. . .
1984. . .
1985. . .
1986 . . .
1987 . . .

5.6
3.5

4.8

7 .8
11.5
27.6
10.3
20.3
16.4
12.9
18.0
17.9
18. 0
18.4
13.1
9.3
9 .6
5.5

18.3
2 0.1
19.7
20.0
20.2
20.4
20.8
2 1.6
22.5

18.0
20.1
19.8
19.6
20.4
20.5
21.0
2 1.5
22.2

738C.
1953 . . .
1954. . .
1955 . . .
1956 . . .
1957 . . .
1958. . .
1959 . . .
1960...
1961.. .
1962 . . .
1963. . .
1964...
1965. . .
1966 . . .
1967.. .
1968. . .
1969. . .
1970...
197 1 . . .

1
1
5
-3
3
3
3

2 . 1
4. 0

3.
1 .8
1.3
0. 0
5 .2
2 .4

J A P A N - - I N D E X OF C O N S U M E R P R I C E S
(1982-84=100)
1953. . .
1954 ...
1955. ..
1956 . . .
1957 ...
1958. ..
1959. ..
1960...
1961 . . .
19
1963.. .
1964. ..
1965.. .
1966 . . .
1967 ...
1968. ..
1969. ..
197 0...
197 1 ...
1972 ...
1973. ..
1974...
1975...
1976 ...
1977 ...
1978. ..
1979. ..
1980. . .
1981. ..
1982...
1983 ...
1984. . .
1985...
19
1987

2 . 1
4. 0
1 .9
3 .8

6 .7
6 .2
4.4
1 .4
5 .5
1 .3
5 .2
6.3
3.5
5 .7
10.7
18.7
12.4
19.7
20.0
12 .4
15.6
21.3
2 1.6
15.0
14.1
11.0
10.7
6.8

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

0.0

4. 0
0. 0
0. 0

IV Q

1.5
1. 1

3 .4

0.8
-1.9
month o f

1 .9
-0.2
the

span.

6.5
6.6

19.7
19 . 1
9.3
4.4
3.6
7 . 1
5 .5
3.9
3. 3
1 .9
2.5
1 .2
-0.9

F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Cyclical Indicators
Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning in—

Series

July 1981
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours, mfg
5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted)
8. Mfrs/new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries
20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1982 dollars
29. Building permits, new private housing units
36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand
and on order in 1982 dollars (smoothed1)
99. Change insensitive materials prices (smoothed1)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
910. Composite index of 11 leading indicators
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars
47. Index of industrial production
57. Mfg. and trade sales in 1982 dollars
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted)
77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.—actual
data as a percent of trend
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
101. Commercial and industrial loans in 1982 dollars
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators

5/81
7/81
10/80
4/81
4/81
9/80

(-2)
(0)
(-9)
(-3)
(-3)
(—10)

7/81
10/80
11/80
NSC
5/81
4/81
3/81

(0)
(-9)
(-8)
(-2)
(-3)
(-4)

7/81
(0)
8/81 ( + 1)
7/81
(0)
1/81 (-6)
7/81
(0)

Jan. 1980
3/79
9/78
12/78
3/79
3/79
6/78

LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted)
77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.—actual
data as a percent of trend
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
101. Commercial and industrial loans in 1982 dollars
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators

Apr. 1960

Aug. 1957

July 1953

4/73 (-7)
2/73 ( - 9 )
3/73 (-8)
5/73 (-6)
10/73 (-1)
12/72 ( - 1 1 )

10/68
1/69
11/68
6/69
4/69
2/69

(-14)
(-11)
(-13)
(-6)
(-8)
(—10)

5/59
4/59
2/59
10/59
3/59
11/58

(-11)
(-12)
(-14)
(-6)
(-13)
(-17)

11/55
9/55
7/55
10/55
11/56
2/55

(-21)
(-23)
(-25)
(-22)
(-9)
(-30)

4/53
(-3)
9/52 ( - 1 0 )
4/53
(-3)
7/52 (-12)
2/53
(-5)
11/52
(-8)

1/79 ( - 1 2 )
4/79 (-9)
NSC
1/78 (-24)
3/78 (-22)
3/79 (-10)
4/78 (-21)

4/73 ( - 7 )
1/74 ( + 2)
1/73 ( - 1 0 )
1/73 (-10)
2/73 (-9)
3/73 (-8)
12/72 (-11)

11/68
2/69
12/68
1/69
1/69
4/69
11/68

(-13)
(-10)
(-12)
(-11)
(-11)
(-8)
(-13)

4/59 ( - 1 2 )
11/58 (-17)
7/59 ( - 9 )
NSC
6/59 (-10)
5/59 (-11)
4/59 (-12)

9/56
9/55
7/56
1/56
6/55
9/55
5/55

(-11)
(-23)
(-13)
(-19)
(-26)
(-23)
(-27)

2/53
4/53
1/53
NSC
10/52
3/53
10/52

3/80 ( + 2)
1/80
(0)
3/80 ( + 2)
3/79 (-10)
1/80
(0)

10/74 ( +
11/73
11/73
11/73
11/73

3/70
NSC
10/69
10/69
10/69

12/81 ( + 5)
1/82 ( + 6)

7/79
6/80

(-6)
( + 5)

1/82 ( + 6)
8/81 ( + 1)
9/82 ( + 14)
NSC
6/82 ( + 11)

6/80
4/80
3/80
NSC
4/80

( + 5)
( + 3)
( + 2)
( + 3)

11)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)

9/73 ( - 2 )
3/75 ( + 16)
3/75
9/74
9/74
4/74
12/74

( + 16)
( + 10)
( + 10)
( + 5)
( + 13)

( + 3)
(-2)
(-2)
(-2)

10/69 ( - 2 )
11/70 ( + 11)
1/70
2/70
8/70
NSC
3/70

( + 1)
( + 2)
( + 8)
( + 3)

4/60
6/60
1/60
1/60
1/60

(0)
( + 2)
(-3)
(-3)
(-3)

3/57
8/57
2/57
2/57
2/57

(-5)
(0)
(-6)
(-6)
(-6)

6/60
1/61

( + 2)
( + 9)

9/57
4/58

( + 1)
( + 8)

2/61 ( + 10)
7/60 ( + 3)
NSC
12/60 ( + 8)
6/60 ( + 2)

4/58
12/57
9/57
1/58
12/57

(+
(+
(+
(+
(+

8)
4)
1)
5)
4)

(-5)
(-3)
(-6)
(-9)
(-4)
(-9)

6/53
(-1)
10/53 ( + 3)
7/53
(0)
4/53
(-3)
5/53
(-2)

9/53
.12/53

( + 2)
( + 5)

12/53
2/54
6/53
4/54
12/53

( + 5)
( + 7)
(-1)
( + 9)
( + 5)

Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning in—
Nov. 1982

COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars
47. Index of industrial production
57. Mfg. and trade sales in 1982 dollars
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators

Dec. 1969

(-10)
(-16)
(-13)
(-10)
(-10)
(-19)

Series

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours, mfg
5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted)
8. Mfrs.'new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries
20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1982 dollars
29. Building permits, new private housing units
36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand
and on order in 1982 dollars (smoothed1)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed1)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
910. Composite index of 11 leading indicators
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

Nov. 1973

July 1980

Mar. 1975

Nov. 1970

Feb. 1961

Apr. 1958

May 1954

9/82 (-2)
9/82 (-2)
11/82
(0)
5/82 (-6)
8/82 (-3)
10/81 (-13)

7/80
5/80
5/80
6/80
5/80
4/80

(0)
(-2)
(-2)
(-1)
(-2)
(-3)

3/75
(0)
3/75
(0)
3/75
(0)
2/75 (-1)
12/75 ( + 9)
3/75
(0)

9/70
10/70
11/70
12/70
10/70
1/70

(-2)
(-1)
(0)
( + 1)
(-1)
(-10)

12/60
2/61
1/61
3/60
3/61
12/60

(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(-11)
( + 1)
(-2)

4/58
4/58
4/58
12/57
3/58
2/58

(0)
(0)
(0)
(-4)
(-1)
(-2)

4/54
9/54
10/53
12/53
3/54
9/53

(-1)
( + 4)
(-7)
(-5)
(-2)
(-8)

1/83 ( + 2)
12/81 (-11)
7/82 (-4)
NSC
12/82 ( + 1)
3/82 (-8)
7/82 (-4)

8/80
6/80
NSC
5/80
5/80
5/80
4/80

( + 1)
(-1)

4/75 ( + 1)
1/75 (-2)
12/74 ( - 3 )
1/75 (-2)
3/75
(0)
2/75 (-1)
3/75
(0)

3/70
1/71
6/70
4/70
10/70
10/70
11/70

(-8)
( + 2)
(-5)
(-7)
(-1)
(-1)
(0)

2/61 (0)
3/60 (-11)
10/60 (-4)
NSC
4/61 ( + 2)
12/60 (-2)
12/60 (-2)

3/58
11/57
12/57
1/58
2/58
2/58
12/57

(-1)
(-5)
(-4)
(-3)
(-2)
(-2)
(-4)

11/53
11/53
9/53
NSC
12/53
11/53
1/54

(-6)
(-6)
(-8)

12/82
9/82
12/82
10/82
12/82

7/80
(0)
7/80
(0)
7/80
(0)
6/80 (-1)
7/80
(0)

4/75 ( + 1)
2/75 ( - 1 )
3/75
(0)
3/75
(0)
3/75
(0)

11/70
NSC
11/70
11/70
11/70

(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)

2/61 (0)
12/60 (-2)
2/61 (0)
1/61 (-1)
2/61 (0)

5/58 ( + 1)
4/58
(0)
4/58
(0)
4/58
(0)
4/58
(0)

8/54 ( + 3)
4/54 (-1)
4/54 ( - 1 )
12/53
(-5)
8/54 ( + 3)

6/72 ( + 19)
2/73 ( + 27)

7/61 ( + 5)
4/62 ( + 14)

10/58 ( + 6)
5/59 ( + 13)

5/55 ( + 12)
4/55 ( + 11)

4/59 ( + 12)
8/58 ( + 4)
8/58 ( + 4)
11/58 ( + 7)
8/58 ( + 4)

6/55 ( + 13)
7/55 ( + 14)
8/54 ( + 3)
11/54 ( + 6)
4/55 ( + 11)

( + 1)
(-2)
( + 1)
(-1)
( + 1)

7/83 ( + 8)
1/84 ( + 14)
7/84 ( + 20)
7/83 ( + 8)
10/83 ( + 11)
NSC
7/83 ( + 8)

1/81
1/81

(-2)
(-2)
(-2)
(-3)

( + 6)
( + 6)

7/81 ( + 12)
8/80 ( + 1)
3/81 ( + 8)
NSC
4/81 ( + 9)

1/76 ( + 10)
10/78 ( + 43)
8/78
4/77
4/77
2/76
4/76

(+
(+
(+
(+
(+

41)
25)
25)
11)
13)

9/73
3/72
1/72
NSC
2/72

( + 34)
( + 16)
( + 14)
( + 15)

12/61
11/65
NSC
11/61
11/61

( + 10)
( + 57)
( + 9)
( + 9)

(-5)
(-6)
(-4)

NOTE: Specific peak and trough dates mark the cyclical turning points in individual series; reference peak and trough dates mark the cyclical turning points in overall business activity. For the maior
composite indexes and their components, this table lists the specific peaks and troughs corresponding to the last seven business cycles. The leads ( —) or lags ( + ) of the specific dates in relation
to the reference dates are shown in parentheses (in months). These specific dates should not be considered absolute; individual analysts may prefer alternative turning points for some series. See
MEASURING BUSINESS CYCLES by Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell (National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946) for detailed information on the selection of specific peaks and troughs.
NA, not available. This indicates that data necessary to determine a turning point are not available.
NSC, no specific cycle. This indicates that no specific turning point corresponding to the indicated reference date is discernible.
1
This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.




105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

1111111111111111111111111111111

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Year
and
month

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar—

Japan

West
Germany

France

(Yen)

(D. mark)

(Franc)

United
Kingdom
(Pound)

I
I
Japan (yen)

1987
Jan. . . .
Feb....
Mar
Apr
May
June.. .
July...
Aug. . . .
Sept. . .
Oct
Nov. . . .
Dec

154.83
153.41
151.43
143.00
140.48
144.55
150.29
147.33
143.29
143.32
135.40
128.24

1.8596
1.8239
1.8355
1.8125
1.7881
1.8189
1.8482
1.8553
1.8134
1.8006
1.6821
1.6335

6.2007
6.0750
6.1091
6.0332
5.9748
6.0739
6.1530
6.1934
6.0555
6.0160
5.7099
5.5375

0.6643
0.6545
0.6280
0.6135
0.6000
0.6139
0.6215
0.6252
0.6081
0.6017
0.5633
0.5468

127.69
129.17
127.11
2
124.91

1.6537
rl.6965
1.6770
2
1.6700

5.5808
5.7323
5.6893
2
5.6655

0.5553
0.5688
0.5456
2
0.5322

1988
Jan. .. .
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June. . .
July...
Aug
Sept...
Oct....
Nov. . . .
Dec

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Italy

Canada

Exchange value
of the U.S.
dollar 1

(Lira)

Year
and
month

(Dollar)

(March 1973=100)

Kingdom (pound)

1987
Jan. . . .
Feb
Mar
Apr....
May....
June...
July. ..
Aug. . . .
Sept...
Oct....
Nov....
Dec
1988
Jan. . . .
Feb
Mar
Apr....
May
June...
July...
Aug. .. .
Sept...
Oct....
Nov....
Dec

1317.17
1297.74
1305.90
1292.96
1290.80
1316.50
1337.96
1344.18
1310.86
1302.58
1238.89
1203.74

1.3605
1.3340
1.3194
1.3183
1.3411
1.3387
1.3262
1.3256
1.3154
1.3097
1.3167
1.3075

101.13
99.46
98.99
97.09
96.05
97.78
99.36
99.43
97.23
96.65
91.49
88.70

1216.88
1249.62
1240.67
2
1239.69

1.2855
1.2682
1.2492
2
1.2369

89.29
r91.09
89.73
2
88.93
Exchange value of the U.S. dollar
(index: March 1973 = 100)

->

75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
1

T h i s i n d e x i s t h e w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e exchange v a l u e o f t h e U. S. d o l l a r against the currencies of the other 6-10 countries
plus S w i t z e r l a n d .
Weights are t h e 1972-76 g l o b a l t r a d e o f each o f the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see
t h e August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN ( p . 7 0 0 ) .
2
Average f o r A p r i l 1 t h r o u g h 2 2 .
S o u r c e : Board o f Governors o f t h e Federal Reserve System.

106



iOO
80

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly nours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours).
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (thous.). .
8. Mfrs.1 new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. dol.).
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent) . . .
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). .
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1982 dol., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed2 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
(bil. dol.)
111. Change in business and consumer credit
outstanding (ann. rate, percent)
910. Composite index of leading indicators3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thous.)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. d o l . ) . . . .
47. Industrial production
(index: 1977=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982
dollars (mil. dol.)
920. Composite index of roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturingactual data as a percent of trend (percent)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1982 dollars (mil. dol.)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding to personal income (percent). .
930. Composite index of lagging indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)

Jan.
1988

Dec.
1987

Net contribution to index
Dec.
to
Jan.
1988

Mar.
1988

Feb.

Jan.
to
Feb.
1988

Feb.
to
Mar.
1988

- 0 . 16

- 0 . 10

41.0

r41 .2

r41 .0

p40.9

0.16

312

351

321

304

-0.35

0.27

0.20

86.60

r84.85

r 8 6 . 19

. 12

-0. 1 1

0.08

-0.01

68

66

-0.09

0 . 16

r41.76

r43.45

r42.76

108.5

100.2

113.4

76

r41 .68

P39.29

NA

r0.74

0.3 3

r0.07

0 . 10

240.96

250.48

2 5 8.13

r2 ,42 3 . 6

r 2 , 4 3 5 .6

r 2 , 4 4 9 .2

r 12 . 1

r 1 .6

7 1

r40.

r 190.6

r!89.2

P86

69
41.57

0.09

-0.04

-0.08

-0.26

0.40

0 . 12

0.02

- 0 . 06

NA

-0.11

0.02

0.26

0.20

0.24

.7

0 . 17

0.19

0.11

p 10 . 8

NA

-0.60

0.52

r 191. 7

p19 3 . 3

-0.73

1 .32

0.83

0 . 17

0.41

0.27

-0.36

0.29

0.15

C. 10

0.00

0.05

0.03

0.0 8

265.74
p2 , 4 5 5

r 103,827

rlO4,344

p 104 , 6 0 6

2 ,748.4

r2 , 7 2 8 . 7

r2,744.6

P

r134.4

134.4

r437,414

p438,97 0

436 , 886
r 173.4

r 173 . 0

13

116.9

P

1 0 3 , 6 12

rl33.9

-0.

2 ,75

1.0

pl34.6
NA

r 174.0

pl74.5

13.7

-0.

18

NA

NA

-0.23

0.58

0.29

-0.

10

0 . 00

0.53

0 . 13

0.00

14.2

14.4

14.4

1.53

r 1 .54

pi.54

98. 0

r98.0

r98. 1

p99. 1

0.00

0 . 04

0.54

8.75

8.5 1

8.5 0

0.00

- 0 . 17

-0.01

-0.50

0.39

-0.66

NA

0.58

0 . 19

p 144 .9

0.07

0.49

8.75

NA

NA

101.

r368,06 1

r 361 , 0 8 4

r366 ,458

r l 5 .84

r 15 . 9 9

p 16.04

rl43.5

rl43.6

r!44.3

p360,234

NA
0.42

NOTE: The net c o n t r i b u t i o n o f an i n d i v i d u a l component i s t h a t component's share i n the composite movement of the group.
I t is
computed by d i v i d i n g the s t a n d a r d i z e d and weighted change f o r the component by the sum o f the weights f o r the a v a i l a b l e components
and d i v i d i n g t h a t r e s u l t by the index s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n f a c t o r .
See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or
the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) f o r the weights and s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n f a c t o r s .
NA, not a v a i l a b l e ,
p, p r e l i m i nary,
r, r e v i s e d , e, e s t i m a t e d .
1

This s e r i e s i s i n v e r t e d i n computing the composite i n d e x ; i . e . , a decrease i n t h i s s e r i e s i s considered an upward movement.
This s e r i e s i s a weighted 4-term moving average ( w i t h weights 1 , 2 , 2 , 1 ) placed on the t e r m i n a l month o f the span.
3
F i g u r e s i n the net c o n t r i b u t i o n columns are percent changes i n the i n d e x .
The percent change i s equal (except f o r rounding
d i f f e r e n c e s ) to the sum of the i n d i v i d u a l components' c o n t r i b u t i o n s plus the t r e n d adjustment f a c t o r .
The t r e n d adjustment f a c t o r
f o r the l e a d i n g index i s 0.139; f o r the c o i n c i d e n t i n d e x , - 0 . 1 7 5 ; f o r the l a g g i n g i n d e x , 0.018.
2




17
0

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

73. Industrial production, durable
manufactures

Deviations
from
reference
peaks

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

REF.
TROUGH

FROM
7/81

ACTUAL
DATA

AND
YEAR

SERIES
73
1977=100
53
54
55
56

Percent
- i + 25
•

+ 20

140

• 135

+ 15

• 130

+ 10

• 125

+5

15.1
15.6
16.1
17.4

130.9
131.4
132.0
133.5

57
58
59
60

17 . 7
17.6
20.3
20.2

133.8
133.7
136.8
136.7

61
62
63
64

20.8
21.1
21.3
21 . 6

137.3
137.7
137.9
138.3

12/87
1/88
2/88
3/88

4/87
5/87
6/87
7/87

• 105
-10

l

45

36.1
36.6
37.2
38.8

130.9
131.4
132.0
133.5

57
58
59
60

39.1
39.0
42.2
42.1
42 .7
43. 1
43.3
43.8

137.3
137.7
137.9
138.3

• 11C

t 0

-15

• US

1 5

12/87
1/88
2/88
3/88

• t2C

2-0

133.8
8/87
133.7
9/87
136.8 10/87
136.7 11/87

• 12S

25

4/87
5/87
6/87
7/87

• 13C

30

53
54
55
56

• 13S

35

SERIES
73
1977=100

•

40

DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
FROM
AND
SPEC.
ACTUAL
11/82
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR

61
62
63
64

110

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

8/87
9/87
10/87
11/87

• 120

• 115

73. Industrial production, durable manufactures

Deviations
from
specific
troughs

^

•

tOf

• 95
- 1 -20

5

.,«

DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
YEAR
TROUGH
7/81
DATA

74. Industrial production, nondurable
manufactures

SERIES
74
1977=100

+ 30

+ 25

•1*0

+ 20

• 135

74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures

53
54
55
56

20.4
21.4
22.5
23.9

134.6
135.7
136.9
138.5

4/87
5/87
6/87
7/87

57
58
59
60

24.2
24.0
23.5
24.9

138.8
138.6
138.1
139.6

8/87
9/87
10/87
11/87

61
62
63
64

26.4
26.9
26.8
26.9

141.3
141.9
141.8
141.9

12/87
1/88
2/88
3/88

40

• 14*
35

• 130

• 125
+ 10

+5

• 14C
30

• 13*

MONTHS
DEVI• 120
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
7/82
DATA
YEAR
• 115
SERIES
74
1977=100
• 110

-5
•

105

57
58
59
60

28.6
29.6
30.8
32.3

134.6
135.7
136.9
138.5

61
62
63
64

32.6
32.4
31.9
33.3

138.8
138.6
138.1
139.6

35.0
35.5
35.4
35.5

141 .3
141 .9
141.8
141.9

20

8/87
9/87
10/87
11/87

65
66
67
68

25

4/87
5/87
6/87
7/87

12/87
1/88
2/88
3/88

15

• 13C

• 12E

•

12X

10
-10

-15

mi 1 1 ill i n ill ti 1 1 li 1 1 1 in 1 1 in I I 1 1 1 1 I I i
1
1
11
1
1111
0 + 6 +12+18 + 24+30+36 + 42+48+54+60

• 100

• U(

liiiiiliniiliiinliiiiiliiiiiliiiiiliiiiil

-6

Months from reference troughs

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on page 107 of the January 1988 issue.

108



0 + 6 +12+18+24+30 + 36+42+48 + 54+60 + 66
Months from specific troughs

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
iiiii|riiii|iiiii|iiiii|iiiii|iiiii|iiiii|friii|iiiif|ftiii|iiiii|ii

Deviat ons
from
reference
peaks

50. GNP in 1982 dollars

| C,C,C j

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

QRTRS.
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH H I / 8 1
YEAR
DATA
SERIES

D
1982

+20

y

f

Hfir

• 3.9
• 3.8

\

1970

TRIL .

+15

T\

lllll|lllll|IIUI|UIII|lllll|illll|lllll|lllll|lllll|IIMI|niM

Devia ions

Actual
data

from
specific
troughs

for
current
cycle

50. GNP in 1982 dollars

[c,c,c |

50

B I L . DOL
3704.7
11/86
3718.0 [11/86
3731.5
IV/86

14
15
16

Percent

TTTTT

13.5
13.9
14.3

17
18
19
20

15.5
16.3
17.5
18.9

3772.2
3795.3
3835 .9
3880.8

1/87
11/87
[11/87
IV/87

21

19.5

3902.6

1/88

QRTRS.
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH 1 1 1 / 8 2
DATA
YEAR

Percent

D

25

-

TRIL.

• 3.9

I

1/75

df
20

• 3.8

• 3.7

/

iA\
JOT

ff^

/•#

J

—

+10

MEDIAN

• 3.6
• 3.5

/

—

Mr / As 1975

+5

ff/r
si/

• 3.4

15
16

SERIES
50
ANN. RATE
BIL.
DOL.
17 . 4
3704.7
11/86
17 . 9
37 1 8 . 0 H I / 8 6

17
18
19
20

18.3
19.6
20.3
21.6

3731.5
3772.2
3795.3
3835.9

23.0
23. 7

3880.8
3902.6

^MEDIAN

w •
IIX 82

(

IV/86
1/87
11/87
111/87

21
22

• 3.7

I//

IV/87
1/88

15

• 3.6

&V

\

/
• 3.5

/Jff
•A/

—

M

W

10

• 3.4

H/70

• 3.3
0

yf
7

1

5

j/j

• 3.2

S3

• 31

if

• 3.3
• 3.2

n

86. Nonresidential fixed investment, total,
1982 dollars
iyb7 dollars

II/75
BIL.

• 490
1970

tf'***"^

V

/

\i

\/

+20

/
+15

/ A
i
ltJ\/ A 1
ft J& \\ 1

14

• 450
+10

// > Y^v

+5

r\ / /
V

A

L / J F

|T J ^ f

>

/

u

/

I
/
/

/

/ J

• 390

/ 1975
/
/
/
/

t

• 370
-10

• 350
r

1

i

18
19
20

1

l

i

i

1

inn i m i ) i m i ) i i i i i ) i i i i | | i m i | | i m | i m i | i i i n h i i i i ) i n n }n

8. 7
15.2
15.6

426.0
437.9
463.8
465 .6
488.3

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

28.2
35.8
36.3
42.9

H/86 R

437.9
463.8
465.6
488.3

0 +6 +12+18+24+30+36+42+48+54+60
Months from reference troughs

A

/ /

/ \

/ / fkj

35

/

i

• 450
30

V

tA
HDN j
EI

25

—

i f /•••* r
/
/ hi
\
/
If
\\ yJ
If
-

IS
ImT

20

15

/

111/7 1

—

• 430

• 410

• 390

10

• 370

\J*

5

if J

• 350

IT

11 / 8 7 I #
III/87'|
IV/87
1/88 mil l l l l l ] l f l l l | l l l l l l f l l l l ) l l l l l l l l l l l ) l l l l l | l | l l f ' l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l
-6

40

• 470

/ /K l\ •* • / **
V
1 f

1/88

SERIES
86
RATE
\
i\NN.
I5 I L . DOL
29. 1
441.0
28. 1
4 3 7 . 7 H I / 8 6 Ql
443.2
29.7
IV/86 ^
426.0
24.7
1/87 A

—

/
J\
r\

JliJ

1/87
11/87
HI/87
IV/87

21.3

/
//

\l

/

vA/ / ^

QRTRS.
DEVIFROM ATI ONS CURRENT QRTR .
SPEC.
AND
ACTUAL
FROM
YEAR
TROUGH
DATA
1/83

-5

-15
1

5.8

21

• 430

1/83

SERIES
86
ANN. RATE
BIL.
DOL.
11/86
441.0
9.5
437.7
HI/86
8 .7
IV/86
443.2
10.1

17

• 410
*•>

15
16

/

V

DEVIQRTRS.
FROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
AND
ACTUAL
REF.
FROM
YEAR
DATA
TROUGH 1 1 1 / 8 1

• 470

BIL.

• 490

n

1

V\

45

Percent

c,Lg,c I

Percent

CL 8 7|

86. Nonresidential fixed investment, total,

•*
.r
\

„

n

0 + 6 +12 + 18+24+30+36 + 42+48+54+60+66
Months from specific troughs

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on page 107 of the January




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Current issue
(page numbers)

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources oi Series." following this index)

Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing. Dl
Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars.
Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars...
Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl
Prices, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, retail trade. Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturing and trade. Dl
Automobiles
Imports of automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures

Series
number

6

Charts

Tables

,, .
.
' !°;ical
data
(issue date)
H s

o

Construction
Building permits, new private housing

10 87

58
974
975
971
100
61
970
976
978
977
972
973

22
38
38
38
24
24
38
38
38
38
38
38

65
76
76
7
6
67
67
76
76
7
6
76
76
7
6

616
55

56
22

92
65

20
37
37
37

37
37
37
37
37

10 87
9 87

56
39

B

Canada See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved. Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index
Capital investment
See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Labor force
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite indexComposite index, rate of change...
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation
See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract

93
94

13.25
2
4

6
7
6
7

1
4
1
2
1
3

3
3
2
3
2
3

7
2
6
5
6
5

11
0
7
2
12
1
25
9

15.35

3
e

3
2
4
6

Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars

7
3
7
3
7
1
8
2

64
64

32
32
32

97
1
1
965
333

24
24
37
48

66
66
75
86

12-86
12,86
10 86

388

22
22
22
51

29
29

60
70
70

1 86
9 87
9 87

5
26
26

11 87
11 87

Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index

914
35
34
442
90
441
37

5
1
1
7
51

89
62
89

18.51

62,89

2 88
2.88
2 88
2 88

9
9
9
9

920
951
940
9
11
0
72
112

1
0
39
36
1
1
23
15,35

35
32

60
74
60
66

1,87
1 87
12 87
11 87
6 87

73
73
7
1

5 87
5 87
5 87

5
5
5
2
1
32
32
32

Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military

87
82

10 87
1 88

46
46

64

30.47

70.83

9.87

46

346

49

88

10 87

46

340

49

87

8 87

5

341
348
349

49
50
50

87
88
88

4 88
7 87
7 87

5
5
3
5
3

Prime contract awards

New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP

2
9

13,25

6
7

6/87

2
4

9
6
9

2
3
2
4

6
6
6
7

6/87
8/87

2
1
1
7

8
6
28
4
8
7
8
9
29
4
2
8
34
3
8
7
5

2
5
4
7
2
5
2
5
4
7
2
5
48
12,21
2
2

6
7
8
3
6
7
6
7
8
3
6
7
8
6
6
4
6
5

9/87
12/87
9/87
9/87
12/87
3/87
3/88
4/88
12/87

4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
2
4
5
1
1
5
1
2

6
6
13
1
9
5
3
9

3
5
3
2
15,35
3
3

7
3
7
2
7
3
7
2

5/87
5/87
9/87
2/88

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4

30
2
32
2
5
8

4
9
4
9
2
2

84.95
8
4
6
5

3/88
3/88
6/87

4
9
4
9
2
0

55
2

5
3

9
0

7/87

5
5

2
0

12,23

6
6

11/87

2
1

1
0
16
1

2
3
3
4

6
6
7
3

11/87
2/87

2
1
3
5

10/87

110

11
0
7
2
12
1

15,35

3
5
3
2

Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagncultural payrolls

Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators

Plant and equipment expenditures

Six laggers, index

90
3

Six laggers, rate of change

930c

1
0
3
9

6
0

Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices

10,87
10/87

3
2
2
8
4
8

6
9
8
5

4/88
3/88

5
1
5
0

57
1
53
4
50
8
58
7
57
7
55
2

53
53
54
55
55
53

90
90
91
91
9
1
90

7/87
10/87
10/87
7/87
7/87
7/87

55
55
56
56
56
55

59
5
58
4
588
561
570
564
565

54
53
54
54
55
55
55

9
1
90
91

9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1

6/87
5/87
6/87
6/87
8/87
10/87
10/87

1
7
1
5
1
7
1
5
5
43
43

39
32

12,21

7
2
6
4

2/88
1/88

34
17

965
951
974
963
966

37
36
38
36
37

10/86
12/87
8/87
10/87
12/87

22
5
37
5
12

962
975
952
950
964

36
38
36
36
37

7
5
7
4
7
6
7
4
7
5
7
8
7
4
7
6
7
4
7
4

2/88
8/87
12/87
6/87
9/87

3
7
5
5
1
5

971
970
960
972
967

38'
38
37
38
37

8/87
11/87
8/87
8/87
1/88

3
7
2
3
3
7
3
7
2
5

973
976
978
977
968
961

38
38
38
38
37
36

8/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
2/87
8/87

3
7
3
7
3
7
3
7
2
5
5

3
3
13,32

33

Raw industrials, spot market prices, components ....
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing

leading indicators
Capital investment c o m m i t m e n t s . . .
Eleven leaders, index

94
1
90
1

Eleven leaders, rate of change
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money and financial flows

910c

95
1
97
1
96
1

'io'
3
9
jj

1
1
1
1

6
0
6
0
6
0
6
0
6
0

1/86
4/87
4/87

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
1
3
1

9
8
31
3

3
5
3
2
15,35

Industrial production, components

New orders, manufacturing

6
0

5/87
5/87
9/87
2/88
5/87
9/86

7
3
7
2
7
3
7
2
7
2
7
1

6
6
13
1
9
5
3
9
11
1
3
3

New orders, durable goods industries, components..

1 87

3
2
3
2
3
2

Diffusion indexes

New orders, durable goods industries

6
0

5/87
5/87
5/87

D e f l a t o r s - S e e Price indexes.

Initial claims. State unemployment insurance

1
0
3
9
1
1

7
3
7
3
7
1

Deficit- -See Government.

Industrial production

90
2

()
*

Defense products

Deliveries, vendor performance

49
45

Series
description

Defense Department

Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans

345
280

Historical
data
(issue date)

Defense and space equipment, industrial production ....

Inventories, manufacturers'

920c

(page numbers)
Series
number Charts Tables

D e b t - S e e Credit.

Net outlays

90
4




1
4
1
4

20
20

920c

10
1

Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income

82
84

Four comciders, rate of change

See notes at end of index.

Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer p r i c e s - See also International comparisons.

current dollars

2
9
7
6

Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators

Profitability

Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production

Food
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment.

Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing.
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four comciders. index

Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales ..
Gross private fixed investment
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential. percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP

All items

Balance of payments See International transactions.
Bank loans See Business Loans.
Bank rates See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve..
Bonds See Interest rates.
Borrowing See Credit
Budget
See Government
Building See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures
See Investment, capital.
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation, index
Business incorporations
Business inventories
See Inventories
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars...
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

, Sene,s
description
(")

Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Disposable personal income —See income.

75
77
76
76
75
76
75
7
9
76
76
7
6
76
75
74
77

8

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources ot Series," following this index)

Earnings -See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagncultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagncultural payrolls...
Employees on private nonagncultural payrolls, Dl ...
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Help wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age...
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagncultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over..:
Unemployed, full-time workers...
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Unemployment rate, total
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, Dl
Equipment See Investment, capital.
Exports See International transactions.

Federal funds rate
Federal Government -See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from..
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment-See Investment, capital.
Fixed weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade-See International transactions.
France - See International comparisons.
Free reserves

Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
,
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP. current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital.

Help wanted advertising in newspapers
Help wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment..
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl
Average weekly overtime

Series
number

Current issue
(page numbers)
Charts

441
578
577

51
55
55

48c
48
40
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
44
45
43
1

39
17
17
38
14,17
36
5
1
55
17
16
16
12,16
36
1
6
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
51
15,18
18,51
18
18
18
12,16

961

36

Tables

89
91
91
6
1
62
76
62
74
89
91
62
61
61
61
74
61
89
89
89
89
62
89
89
89
89
62
62,89
62
62
62
61
77
74

Historical
data
(issue date)

2/88
7/87
7/87
9/87
9/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
10/87
2/88
8/87
2/88
12/87
2/88
2/88
2/88
8/87
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
3/87
2/88
8/87
8/87

Series
description
(*)

9
56
56
5
5
37
5
5
9

5
9
9
9
8
8

5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
9
5
"5

3/87

94
213
917

33
40
1
1

72
80
60

2/88
10/87
1/88

35
38
5

9/87

311

9/87
502
501
500
512
511
510
298

52
52
52
52
52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
83

9/87
9/87
9/87
9/87
9/87
9/87
1/88

53
53
53
53
53
53
48

263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260

43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43

81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81

1/88
1/88
1/88
10/87
10/87
1/88
1/88
1/88
1/88
1/88

43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43

311
68

48
30

84
70

9/87
9/87

49
28

50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217

19,40

31
20
48
40

63,80
80
80
80
80
80
7
1
63
84
80

9/87
9/87
9/87
10/87
10/87
10/87
8/87
9/87
9/87
10/87

38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38

46
60

16
16

61
61

12/87
2/88

9
9

1

12,16

8/87

5

961
21

36'
16

61
77
74
61

8/87
8/87

"5

"39'
40

5

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

Series
number

28
29
89
249

Current issue
numbers)
Charts
Tables
(page

25
13,25
25
47

67
67
67
83

Historical
data
(issue date)

3/87
6/87
9/87
12/87

Series
description
(*)
24
24
40
40

I
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAd|
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production—See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Defense and space equipment
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Installment credit—See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany

9/87

310

345
280

49
45

87
82

10/87
1/88

4
6

64

30,47

70,83

9/87

46

346
95
286

49
15,35
45

88
73
82

10/87
9/87
1/88

46
33
26

287
225
224

47
40
40

83
80
80

1/88
10/87
10/87

26
1
1
1
1

46

227

40

80

10/87

1
1

340

49

87

8/87

5

341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223

49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63

4/88
7/87
7/87
1/88
1/88
10/87
9/87
9/87

5
57
47
47
46
1
1
1
1

51c
51
108
282

39
14,19
31
45

63'
7
1
82

9/87
9/87
8/87
1/88

'l
l
30
47

283
284

47
45

83
82

1/88
1/88

47
47

285
348
349

47
50
50

83
88
88

1/88
7/87
7/87

47
53
53

53
13
335

19
23
48

63
65
85

4/88
1/88
3/88

1
1
21
51

12/87
12/87
12/87
12/87
12/87
12/87

12
12
13
12
12
12

12/87
12/87

'12

• 1/88
1/88

2
5

69

2/88
2/88
3/87
1/88
1/88

8
8
8
47
47

76
24
67
75
22
65
557
54
91
73
20
63
74
20
63
47 14,20,58 63,94
78
37'
966
75
47c
39

5
7

79

7
5

967
23

37'
28

5
962
45
288
289

12,16
36
18
47

61
74
62
82
83

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332

35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48

73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
86

1/88
2/87
3/87
3/87
3/87
2/88
2/87
2/87
3/88

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50

733
736
737
738
732
320
735

59
59
59
59
59
49
59

96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95

4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
3/88
4/88

60
61
61
61
60
49
61

94
58
94
58
94
58
94
58
94
58
94
58
14,20,58 63,94
94
58

11/87
6/87
6/87
6/87
6/87
6/87
12/87
6/87

59
59
59
59
58
58
12
59

723
726

77
2
728
721
722
47
725

4
5

25

See notes at end of index.




111

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
International comparisons—Continued
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
International transactions
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, excluding military aid
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars
Exports of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, general
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military ....
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Income on foreign investment in the United States....
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Net exports of goods and services,
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GIMP....
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade ...
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade
Manufacturing and trade, change
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, 01
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
on order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers', change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change—See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
constant dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy- See International comparisons.

Current issue
)
Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

5
9
5
9
5
9
5
9
5
9

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

7/87
7/87
7/87
7/87
7/87
7/87
7/87

63
63
63
63
63
25
63

93
93
92
93
92
82
82
93
92
92
93
92
93
82
82
92
93
93

7/87
7/87
10/87
7/87
10/87
12/87
12/87
7/87
10/87
10/87
7/87
10/8/
7/87
12/87
12/87
10/87
7/87
7/87

57
57
56

23
5
64
1
62
5
61
5

5
7
5
7
5
6
5
7
5
6
44
4
4
5
7
5
6
5
6
5
7
5
6
5
7
4
4
4
4
5
6
5
7
5
7

25
5

4
4

82

12/87

44

20
5
21
5

44
4
7

82
83

12/87
12/87

44
44

3
0
25
4
27
4

26,42

559
65
77
915
7
1
31
70
975

54
27
15,27
1
1
27
26
27
38

68,81
81
83
91
68
68
60
68
68
68
76

9/87
12/87
12/87
6/87
5/87
11/87
1/88
11/87
6/87
11/87
8/87

40
40
40
17
17
17

36

13,26

68

4/88

17

78

27

68

5/87

17

38

26

68

5/87

17

97
1
1
965
914
9

24
24
37

66
66

23'

60
66

12/86
12/86
10/86
1/86
6/87

22
22
22
5
21

Series
number

743
746
747
748
742
1
9
745
667
622
602
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
669
257

(page

Charts

59
59

42
4
7

numbefS

7
5

5
7
5
6
4
4
4
4
5
7
5
6
5
6
5
7
5
6
5
7
4
4
4
4
5
6
5
7
57

5
17
17
17

3
7

8/87

23
4
22
4
8
6
28
4

42
42
25
47

81
81
67
83

11/87
11/87
9/87
12/87

40
40
40
40

88
87
89
249
241
240

2
5
25
25
47
42
42

67
67
67
83
81
81

9/87
9/87
9/87
12/87
11/87
11/87

40
40
40
40
40
40

27

23

66

11/87

15

24

23

66

11/87

1
5

20
10
100
61
970

12,23
23
24
24
38

66
66
67
67

21
21

7
6

11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87

5
7

93
93

7/87
7/87

5
7
5
7

57

Japan—See International comparisons.

Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force—See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
See notes at end of index.

112



Leading indicators, eleven
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans-See Credit.

(page n u m b e f S

Series
number

Charts

)
Tables

910
910c
950
14
104

10
39
36
33
31

74
72
71

3
8
84
8

2
6
20
12,21

917

11

14
0
15
0
8
5
16
0
12
0
17
0
18
0
3
3
18
1
17
1

3
1
3
1
3
1

data
(issue date)

4/87
4/87
6/87
6/87
4/87

68
63

30
30

70
70

9/87
10/87

2
8
2
8

62
62
26

30
15
29

70

10/87
10/87
10/87

2
8
2
8
2
8

930
930c
952

10
39
36

6
0

7
0
7
0

7
4

10/87
10/87
12/87

5
"5

description
(*)

5
5
34
29

M
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories, change
Materials, capacity utilization rate
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices—See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade—See International transactions.
Military—See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply M l , constant dollars
Money supply M l , percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply M l
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields

5/87

13,31

3
1
3
1
3
1
3
2
3
4
3
4

6
8
64
6
4

5/87
11/87
4/88

7
1
7
1
7
1
7
1
7
1
7
1
7
1
7
1
7
3
7
3

4/87
4/87
4/87
4/87
4/87
8/87
8/87
9/86
3/87
3/87

2
9
2
9
2
9
3
0
2
9
3
0
3
0
3
1
3
5
3
5

6
6
6
6
64

11/87
11/87
4/88

1
5
1
5
1
5

1
7
1
4
1
5

1/88

N
National defense—See Defense.
National Government—See Government.
National income—See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars..
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP

2
7
2
4
8

2
3
2
3
12,21

20

12,23

1
0
58
4
7
6

23

94
6
91
7

3
7
38

8
8
8
7
8
6
28
4

2
5
2
5
2
5

11/87
66
90

11/87
5/87
4/88
4/88

21
1
5
15
15

9/87
8/87

15
37

47

6
7
6
7
6
7
8
3

9/87
9/87
9/87
12/87

40
4
0
4
0
4
0

53
53
58

9
0
9
0
9
4

7/87
10/87
6/87

5
5

5
3
2
1
2
1

64
6
4
7
7
7
5
7
6

23
23

652
651

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production.
Orders—See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output—See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Per hour, business sector
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing

Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income—See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports.

57
1
53
4
721

50
8

55
58

10/87
9/87

62
62
370
358
82
84
21

30
15
50
50
20
20
16

70
70
88
88
64
64
61

10/87
10/87
10/87
10/87
11/87
11/87
8/87

28
28

43
5
42
5
41
5

5
1
5
1
5
1

8
9
8
9

2/88
2/88
2/88

9
9
9

5
5
23
3
22
3
28
3
26
3
29
3
27
3
21
3
20
3
25
3

2
2
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
7

65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80

39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39

80
8
3

9/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87

22
9
23
9
64
1

4
6
4
6
5
6

8
2
8
3
9
2

1/88
1/88
10/87

4
8
4
8
5
6

89

5
2
5
2
1
4
1
4
5

3
9
3
9

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital.
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Populaiion, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
Capital equipment
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices—See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production—See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant dollars
Current dollars
With IVA and CCAdj. constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAdj. percent of national income
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAd]
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income

Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Rental income of persons with CCAd|
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars

Series
number

Current issue
numbers)
Charts
Tables
(page

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
jescnption
(*)

Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP..
Residential structures—See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars

12,23
23
24
24
38
17

66
66
67
67
76
62

320
322

49
49

84,95
84

3/88
3/88

49
49

311
310
26

48
48
29

84
84
70

9/87
9/87
10/87

49
38
28

20
10
100
61
970
90

330
333
331
334
335
332

85
86
85
86
85
86
69
37
28

79
75
69

28
13,28

967
23

11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
2/88

3/88
3/88
3/88

Series
number

Current issue
numbers)
Charts
Tables
(page

50
51
50
51
51
50
51

1/88

25
25

69
69

4/88

51
25

69
75
70

7/87
2/87
10/87

25
25
28

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

8/87
8/87
8/87
7/87
2/88

37
37
37
55
35

Salaries—See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade..
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices—See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components ...
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government—See Government.
Stock prices-—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus—See Government.

Series
description
(*)

22
22

65
65

11/87
11/87

20
20

10/87

213

6
9
5
7
5
6
93
7
7
7
5
9
5
4

2
4
14.22
2
2
3
8
15,27
2
2
2
2

6
7
6
5
6
5
7
6
6
8
6
5
6
5

8/87
11/87
11/87
8/87
11/87
11/87
11/87

1
7
1
7
1
7
3
7
1
7
2
0
2
0

25
9
28
9
20
9
22
9
23
9

4
6
4
6
4
6
4
6
4
6

8
2
8
3
82
8
2
8
3

1/88
1/88
1/88
1/88
1/88

2
6
48
4
8
48
4
8

9
8
9
9
58
8

2
8
13,28
5
4

6
9
6
9
9
1

4/88
4/88
6/87

5
1
2
5
1
7

97
6
2
3

37'
2
8

7
9
7
5
6
9

1/88
1/88

2
5
2
5

1
9
98
6

13,28
3
7

6
9
7
5

7/87
2/87

2
5
2
5

14
1
15
1

Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields...

9/87

Historical
data
(issue date)

12/87
59
54

23
23

13,28
37
29
976
978
977
525
109

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

3
4
3
4

7
2
7
3

2/87
2/87

3
5
3
5

9
1
60
5
92
6

15,18
1
6
12,16
3
6

62
6
1
6
1
7
4

2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88

9
9
8
8

46
4
45
4
47
4
44
4
3
7
4
4
4
5
4
3
51
6
9
6
2
5

5
1
5
1
5
1
5
1
18,51
1
8
1
8
1
8
5
4
2
1
2
1

8
9
8
9
8
9
8
9
62,89
62
62
6
2
9
1
64
6
4

2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
3/87
2/88
6/87
4/87
4/87

9
9
9
9
9
9
8
9
1
5
1
5
1
5

17
0
18
0
3
2

3
1
3
1
12,21

7
1
7
1
6
4

8/87
8/87
1/88

3
0
3
0
1
7

1

12,16

5

36'

6
1
7
7
7
4

8/87

91
6

8/87

"5

U

30
7
38
5
96
1

5
0
5
0
1
1

8
8
88
6
0

10/87
10/87
1/88

52
52
5

1
8
1
6
80
7
9

2
8
2
8
2
9
2
9

6
9
6
9
6
9
6
9

9/87
9/87
9/87
9/87

26
26
26
26

26
8
27
8
92
7
90
6
1
5
96
1
2
2

4
5
4
7
3
8
3
7
2
9
1
1
2
9

8
2
8
3
7
6
7
5
7
0
6
0
6
9

1/88
1/88
8/87
8/87
1/88
1/88
9/87

26
26
37
37
27
5
26

8
1
22
8

2
9
4
5

7
0
8
2

9/87
1/88

26
47

1/88

Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment..
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl
Number unemployed
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change
United Kingdom—See International comparisons.

Velocity of money
GNP to money supply M l , ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance, slower deliveries

97
6
2
3
24
8

3
7
2
8
4
5

7
9
7
5
6
9
82

1/88
1/88
1/88

2
5
2
5
4
7

25
8
9
3
8
9

4
7
3
3
2
5

8
3
7
2
6
7

1/88
2/88
9/87

4
7
3
5
40

W
Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany—See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Components ..
Diffusion index

NOTE: CCAdj. capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.




113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. " M " following a series title
indicates monthly data; " Q " indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.

I-A. Composite Indexes
910.

Composite index of eleven leading indicators (includes series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,
111) ( M ) . - S o u r c e 1
(10,39,60)

914.

Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

915.

Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(23,65)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(23,65)

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).-Source 3
(17,62)

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activi-

Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—
Source 3
(16,61)

Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1
(29,69)
23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)

1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(12,16,61,77)

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis

(18,51,62,89)

16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)

I-B. Cyclical Indicators

(29,70)

38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order (M).—Source
2
(26,68)

917.

Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)

1

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(13,26,68)

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade
Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(12,23,66)

940.

35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source

37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3

Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)

930.

34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

916.

920.

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(32,71)

24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3

3

(14,17,62)

ties (M).-Source3

(17,62)

43. Unemployment rate (M).—Source 3

(18,62)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(M).-Source 3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1

(19,39,40,63,80)

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1

(29,70)

(19,63)

6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64,77)

27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)

53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M) — Source 1
(19,63)

7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(21,64)

28. New private housing units started (M).—Source
2
(25,67)

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(12,21,64)

29. Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67)

(12,16,61)

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(23,66)

114



30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
(M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)

54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).-Source 1
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).-Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
(M).-Sourcesl and 2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board
(16,61)

88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)

61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in current dollars(Q).-Source 1
(24,67)

89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q)-Source 1
(25,67)

62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,30,70)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).—Sources 1 and 3
(17,62)

63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source
3
(30,70)

Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source 3
(15,18,62)

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

93.

Free reserves (M).—Source 4

(33,72)

I-C. Diffusion Indexes
950. Diffusion index of eleven leading indicator components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)
952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(35,75)

94.

65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (EOM) .—
Source 2
(27,68)

Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source4
(33,72)

95.

66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).—
Source 4
(35,73)

Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income (M).—Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)

96.

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source
4
(35,73)

Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (E0M).-Source2
(21,64)

97.

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)

Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board
(24,66)

962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(36,74)

98.

69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (M).—Source
2
(24,67)

Percent change in producer prices for sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)

963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)

99.

Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(13,28,69)

964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sourcesland2
(27,68)

100.

71. Manufacturing and trade inventories in current
dollars (EOM)-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)

New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)

101.

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982
dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
Bank of New York
(15,35,73)

102.

Change in money supply M2 (M)-Source 4

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)

75.
76.
77.
78.

79.

80.

81.

82.
84.
85.
86.
87.

965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)

Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw indus4
(31,71)
trial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)
Index of industrial production, nondurable manuand 4
(31,71)
factures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
40-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard &
Index of industrial production, consumer goods
and 4
(13,31,71)
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
(M).-Source4
(22,65)
107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml
970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and
Index of industrial production, business equipment
(Q).—Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries
(M).-Source4
(24,67)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
(Q).-Source 1
(38,76)
Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
4
(35,73)
Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
on hand and on order (EOM).-Source 2 (27,68)
reproduced without written permission from the
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
source.)
(38,76)
Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuaChange in business and consumer credit outstanding 972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
tion and capital consumption adjustments in cur(M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
rent dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72)
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
Corporate profits after tax with inventory valua- 112. Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
series may not be reproduced without written
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)
tion and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
Source 4
(32,72)
Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjust- 114, Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
ments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
bills (M).-Source4
(34,72)
series may not be reproduced without written
Source 1
(29,70)
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).—
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacSource 4
(20,64)
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
turing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Trea(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source
sury
(34,73)
This series may not be reproduced without written
4
(20,64)
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The
117Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturGross private nonresidential fixed investment in
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—
ing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
1982 dollars (Q).-Sou reel
(25,67)
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)
This series may not be reproduced without written
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4
(34,72)

73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
74.

(31,71)

961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)




104.

115

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—
about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)

243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Soureel

(42,81)

245. Change in business inventories in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel

(42,81)

247. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Source 1

(47,83)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q)—
Source 1
(47,83)
290. Gross saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

293. Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1

(46,83)

248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a 295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)

(46,82)

298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1
(46,83)

978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
1
(47,83) 310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
source.)
(38,76)
(Q).-Sourcel
(44,82)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
II—A. National Income and Product
gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars ( Q ) . - 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars
(M).-Source3
(49,59,84,95)
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
(Q).-Sourcel
(44,82)
322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars
food (M).-Source 3
(49,84)
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
(Q).-Sourcel
(44,82)
330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
3
(48,85)
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
(Q).-Sourcel
(44,82)
331. Producer price index, crude materials for further
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).— 256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
processing (M).-Source 3
(48,85)
Source 1
(40,80)
(Q).-Sourcel
(44,82)
332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, sup213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q) -Source 1
(40,80) 257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
plies, and components (M).—Source 3
(48,86)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).—
(Q).-Sourcesl and 2
(40,80) 260. Government purchases of goods and services in
Source 3
(48,86)
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
1
(45,82) 261. Government purchases of goods and services in
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
1982 dollars (Q). - S o u reel

(43,81)

223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
(40,63)

262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

224. Disposable personal income in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(40,80)

263. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)

vices as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

266. State and local government purchases of goods and

231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

267. State and local government purchases of goods and

232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

268. State and local government purchases of goods and

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)

services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).-Source 3
(50,88)

280. Compensation of employees (Q).—Source 1 (45,82)
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and

349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q).—Source 3 (50,88)

233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

16
1



vices in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
vices in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

(43,81)
(43,81)

(43,81)
(43,81)

capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source

1

(45,82)

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
national income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1

(45,82)

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)

287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua-

335. Producer price index, industrial commodities
(M).-Source3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls (M).—Source 3
(49,87)
341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)
345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,87)

358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,88)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business
sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,88)

II—C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3

(18,51,62,89)
441. Civilian labor force (M) -Source 3

(51,89)

442. Civilian employment (M).-Source 3

(51,89)

444.
tion and capital consumption adjustments as a
percent of national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
445.
288. Net interest (Q).—Source 1
(45,82)

Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)

vU.S.

G.P.O.

1 9 8 8 - 2 0 1-470:8000

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age (M).-Source3
(51,89)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers ( M ) . —
Source 3
(51,89)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3
(51,89)

II—D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source
1
(52,90)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1

570. Employment, defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct Nre employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)

47. United States, index of industrial production (M) . Source 4

(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

320. United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723. Canada, index of industrial production ( M ) . —
Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(54,91)

502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Istituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)

II—E. U.S. International Transactions

510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)

511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)

(52,90)

512. State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
(56,92)
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Direc- 612. General imports (M).-Source 2
torate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work
performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Depart
ment of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)

616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q)-Source 1

(57,93)

620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)

651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1

(57,93)

548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(53,90)

652. Income on foreign investment in the United States
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)

557. Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).-Source 4
(54,91)

667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (EOM).
-Source 2

(54,91)

561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).—Source 2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)




(57,93)

668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)

II—F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

732. United Kingdom, consumer price index ( M ) . —
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, consumer price index
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden);
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
ic Analysis

(M).—
percent
Econom(59,95)

736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).—Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Toronto Stock
Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices ( M ) . —
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(59,96)

747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)

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POSTAGE & FEES PAID
USGPO
PERMIT No. G-26


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102