Full text of Business Conditions Digest : April 1981

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moNS

U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS




U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
William A. Cox, Acting Chief Economist for the Department of Commerce

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Allan H. Young, Deputy Director
Charles A. Waite, Acting Associate Director Tor
National Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication a r e Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Morton Somer—Seasonal adjustments
Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources
at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee under the
auspices of the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards. The Committee consists of
the following persons:
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, Bureau of Industrial Economics, U.S. Department of
Commerce
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards
Ronald E. Kutscher, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
J. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides

a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Develop-

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.

ments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.

Annual subscription price: $55.00 domestic,
$68.75 foreign. Single copy price: $4.75
domestic, $5.95 foreign. Foreign airmail rates
are available upon request. Address all
correspondence concerning subscriptions to the

Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Make
checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents.

Other Economic Measures provide additional in-

formation for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue

ItCII

iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6

APRIL 1981
Data Through March
Volume 21, Number 4

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Al
A2
A3
A4

Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

Chart

Table

10
12
14
15

60
—
—
—

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

36
—'
39

74
77
—

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7

Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Cl
C2
C3

Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is
necessary in the transaction of the public
required by law of this Department. Use
Digitizedbusiness
for FRASER


of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of
Management and Budget through September 1,
1983.

ItCII




PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8

AND PRODUCT
GNP and Persona! Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving,
,
Shares of GNP and National Income

Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

48
49

84
87

51

89

52
53

90
90

56
57

92
93

58
59
59

94
95
96

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Bl
B2

Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors (February 1981 issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
97
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (October 1980 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators
105
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
106
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
110
Titles and Sources of Series
114

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
Changes in this issue are as follows:

methods, benchmark

1. The series on manufacturing and trade sales and
inventories have been revised by the source agency for the
months of February 1980 and January and February 1981. Thus,
data for these months are not comparable with data for other
months. These revisions reflect the rebenchmarking of data
for the retail and wholesale sectors. Historical revised
data are expected to become available in May when the rebenchmarking of the manufacturing sector is scheduled for completion.

data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of

The series that are affected by these revisions are series
56 and 71 (for all three of the above-mentioned months) and
series 31, 57, 70, and 77 (for January and February 1981).
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, Business Division.
2. Series 92, Change in sensitive crude materials prices,
has been revised for the period January 1976 through February
1981. These revisions reflect the source agency's correction
of a systematic calculation error in the December 1975 to
January 1976 movement.
Further information concerning this revision may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Office of Prices and Living Conditions, Division
of Industrial Prices and Price Indexes.
(Continued on page iv.)
The May issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on June 2.



ill

indexes, etc.

3. The Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product, (series 311)
has been revised for all periods by the source agency. This revision reflects
the use of greater detail in the calculation of this index.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income
and Wealth Division.
4. Appendix C contains historical data for series 16, 18, 22, 30, 34,
35, 49, 55, 64, 68, 79-81, 86-89, 92, 107, 113, 220, 224, 225, 227, 230-233,
235-243, 245, and 247-252.
5. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 5, 30, 40, 50,
82, 86, 910, and 920.




IV

METHOD OF PRESENTATION

adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
This report is organized into two major parts.
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
which contain considerable variation due to the
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
number of working or trading days in each month. of expansion and contraction in various economic
series which have been found to conform well to
As used in this report, the term "seasonal processes that show up as major fluctuations in agbroad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday gregate economic activity—that is, in comeconomic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
prehensive measures of production, employment,
adjustments where they have been made.
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
Most of the series in this report are presented in income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these business cycles of historical experience have been
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
are the official figures released by the source definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
report, a number of series not ordinarily published economic systems, conditions, policies, and
but which do not conform weii enough to business
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a outside disturbances.
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
seasonally adjusted basis.
One of the techniques developed in business
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
cycle
research and widely used as a tool for analyzpart I are also shown in part II to complete the
ing
current
economic conditions and prospects is
MCD
Moving
Averages
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
the
cyclical
indicators approach. This approach
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
identifies
certain
economic time series as tending
Month-to-month
changes
in
a
series
are
often
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
to
lead,
coincide
with or lag behind the broad
dominated
by
erratic
movements.
MCD
(months
for
the national income and product accounts; other
movements
in
aggregate
economic activity. Such
cyclical
dominance)
is
an
estimate
of
the
approsections relate to prices, labor force, government
indicators
have
been
selected
and analyzed by
priate
span
over
which
to
observe
cyclical
and defense-related activities, and international
NBER
in
a
series
of
studies
published
between
movements
in
a
monthly
series.
(See
appendix
A.)
transactions and comparisons.
It is the smallest span of months for which the 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
The two parts are further divided into sections
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. staff. The present format and content of part I of
begin with 1956, but those for the composite
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of BCD are based on the results of that study.
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a Section A. Composite indexes and
format which covers only the period since 1969.
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 Their Components
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
shading which indicates periods of recession in
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated acgeneral business activity. The tables contain data
MCD of 1.
cording to six major characteristics: Economic
for only the last few years. The historical data for
The charts in this report generally include significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
the various time series are contained in the 1977
centered
MCD moving averages for those series timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally conformity to business expansions and
In addition to the charts and tables described
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
above, each issue contains a summary table which
variation about the moving averages and to provide (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
was developed and used to assess each series by all
observations for the most recent months.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting
Reference Turning Dates
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
information of analytical interest. An index appears
The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic
the series numbers used are for identification
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
purposes only and do not reflect precise
mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relationships or order. However, all series
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.)
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
This information, particularly the scores relating
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
the range 1 to 199.
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite
Seasonal Adjustments
charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations have been designated.
groups and combine those with similar timing
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for to periodic review by NBER and on occasion are weights. Because they use series of historically
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations changed as a result of revisions in important tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
resulting primarily from normal differences in economic time series. The dates shown in this pub- (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
weather conditions and from various institutional lication for the 1948-1970 time period are those with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays determined by a 1974 review. The turning dates for of duplication, composite indexes give more
are usually accounted for by the seasonal the 1973-1975 period are detailed in NBER's 1976 reliable signals over time than do any of the
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday Annual Report.
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the




Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
\.
Economic
\Process
Cyclical
Timing

\
N.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(62 series)

EMPLOYMENT

II.

Mi.

IV.

PRODUCTION

CONSUMPTION.
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)

FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

New and
unfilled orders
and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption
(2 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

AND

AND

UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

INCOME
(10 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(6 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Capacity
utilization
(2 series)

V.

VI.

INVENTORIES

PRICES, COSTS,
A N D PROFITS
(17 series)

VII.
MONEY
A N D CREDIT
(26 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profits and
profit
margins
(7 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)

Money flows
(3 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)

AND

INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

1 rttoyoct rstoc

(1 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

i

LAGGING (Lg)
| INDICATORS
(18 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

Backlog of
investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(5 series)

Duration of
unemployment
(2 series)

Velocity of
money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

Business
investment
expenditures
(1 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

Trade
(1 series)

(8 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Business
investment
commitments
(1 series)
_ _

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding
debt
(3 series)

Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profit share
(1 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

.__.

_.

.„.._

„

!

j
j
\
j
!

.,..„

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
._
\

Economic
.Process

Cyclical X
Timing
\.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(40 series)

II.

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
F
IXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)

EMPLOYMENT

PRODUCTION

AND

AND

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(3 series)

Industrial
production
(1 series)

New and unfilled
orders and
deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)

Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)

Consumption
and trade
(3 series)

Business
investment
commitments
(1 series)

Unfilled orders
(1 series)

Business
investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(6 series)

UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)

Marginal
employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
and duration

INCOME
(10 series)

M

V.

INVENTORIES
AND

INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)

VII.
MONEY
A N D CREDIT
(26 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(2 series)
Profits and
profit margins
(6 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)

Money
flows
(2 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)

j

Profits
(2 series)

Money flow
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of
\
money
(1 series)
|
Bank reserves
i
(1 series)
i
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(3 series)
j
j

unemployment
(5 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)


(1 series)


Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident



indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the post-1970 period
can be determined by inspection of the charts
where the 1973-75 recession is shaded according
to the dates of the NBER reference cycle
chronology.
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 111 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and ior four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.

Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in
the physical volume of inventories held by
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series private business. The former include all private
measuring various aspects of economic activity. purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
Some of these series are very comprehensive, tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions (A4) is the compensation of government employees
or to selected foreign countries. The represented and purchases from business and from abroad. It
variables include incomes, outputs, and excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross
labor resources; government receipts, investment by government enterprises but excludes
expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
ports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
key foreign countries.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
Section A. National Income and Product
of the national production; imports are not, but are
The national income and product accounts, included in the components of GNP and are
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
final expenditures for the personal, business, international transactions is provided in section E.
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
Section Al shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services
final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by
income. The four major components of the gross residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
national product—personal consumption the factor costs of the goods and services proexpenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of
government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
net exports of goods and services—are presented in persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period.
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving,
series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
government surplus or deficit.
January 1976.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
Gross national product (GNP) is the market major expenditure components of GNP
value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income
United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income.
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
The important data on price movements include
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on
income, rental income of persons, dividends, these series are the quarterly price indexes from
personal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably
less personal contributions for social insurance.
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
Disposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different
income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedof personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business prodpayments to government.
uct. Data on both levels and percent changes are
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1969.
The group of series on wages and tyoductivity
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings
and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.
cluded.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES




Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D. Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense
Indicators.
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1969) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1969) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Basic Data

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Rates of Change

Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.

Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3- or 4-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r 


2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Timing
classification3

Series title

Unit
of
measure

Percent chan§e

Avetage
1979

1980

3dQ
1980

4th Q
1980

1st Q
1981

Jan.
1981

Jan.
to
Feb.
1981

Mar.
1981

Feb.
1981

Feb.
to
Mar.
1981

3dQ
to
4th Q
1980

4th Q
to
lstQ
1981

_•
E
3

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A. Composite Indexes
910. Twelve leading indicators
920. Four coincident indicators
930. Six lagging indicators
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
913. Marginal employment adjustments
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917. Money and financial flows

1967=100 ..
do. . . .
do. . . .
Lg.Lg.Lgi

140.1
145.1
166.4

131.7
140.4
176.8

131.6
137.2
163.2

137.1
141.2
178.1

136.1
142.9
184.3

135.9
142.9
189.0

135.2
142.8
186.2

137.1
142.9
111 .1

-0.5
-0.1
-1.5

1.4
0.1
-4.6

4.2
2.9
9.1

-0.7
1.2
3.5

91
92
93

do
do. . . .
do. . . .
do
do. . . .

96.8
113.5
105.9
91.7
145.5

93.4
107.4
101.1
90.7
135.9

92.9
107.7
100.0
91.2
136.6

95.5
108.1
103.4
91.9
139.8

95.3
106.5
103.0
NA
139.0

95.7
107.4
101.5
92.0
139.7

95.2
105.6
102.9
91.5
139.0

94.9
106.4
104.7
NA
138.4

-0.5
-1.7
1.4
-0.5
-0.5

-0.3
0.8
1.7
NA
-0.4

2.8
0.4
3.4
0.8
2.3

-0.2
-1.5
-0.4
NA
-0.6

91
91
91
91
91

L,L,L

c,c,c

.

LL L
L,L,L i
L,L,L
LL L
L,L,L

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
B1. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.2 ..
2. Accession rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2
5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted4)
*3. Layoff rate, per 100 employ., mfg. (inv. 4 ) 2 ..
4. Quit rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2

L,L,L
L,C,L
L,L,L
L,C,L
L,L,L
L,Lg,U

Hours
do. . . .
Percent
Thousands. .
Percent
do. . . .

40.2
3.3
4.0
381
1.1
2.0

39.7
2.8
3.5
484
1.7
1.5

39.3
2.6
3.6
513
1.7
1.3

39.9
2.9
3.7
411
1.2
1.4

40.1
3.0
3.5
413
1.4
1.5

40.4
3.1
3.5
415
1.3
1.5

39.9
2.9
3.6
402
1.4
1.5

40.0
2.9
3.5
421
1.4
1.4

-1.2
-0.2
0.1
3.1
-0.1
0.

0.3
0.
-0.1
-4.7
0.
-0.1

1.5
0.3
0.1
19.9
0.5
0.1

0.5
0.1
-0.2
-0.5
-0.2
0.1

Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons
unemployed2
46. Help-wanted advertising

ULg,U
L,Lg,U

Ratio
1967=100...

0.786
158

0.520
129

0.448
119

0.491
130

0.488
128

0.486
128

0.495
129

0.483
126

0.009
0.8

-0.012
-2.3

0.043
9.2

-0.003
-1.5

6
4

u,c,c

A.r., bil. hrs..
Thousands. .
do. . . .
do. . . .

169.72
93,648
89,886
26,504

169.96
93,960
90,657
25,855

168.17
93,769
90,131
25,317

170.41
93,925
90,932
25,780

172.32
94,692
91,590
26,002

173.03
94,294
91,481
26,041

171.74
94,646
91,644
25,987

172.18
95,136
91,645
25,978

-0.7
0.4
0.2
-0.2

0.3
0.5
0.
0.

1.3
0.2
0.9
1.8

1.1
0.8
0.7
0.9

4
4
4
4

59.25

58.51

58.27

58.18

58.43

58.30

58.38

58.61

0.08

0.23

-0.09

0.25

9

5,963
5.8
2.9
10.8
1.2

7,448
7.1
3.9
11.9
1.7

7,921
7.5
4.3
12.4
2.0

7,897
7.5
3.8
13.5
2.2

7,788
7.3
3.3
14.3
2.1

7,847
7.4
3.4
14.4
2.2

7,754
7.3
3.2
14.4
2.1

7,764
7.3
3.3
14.0
2.1

1.2
0.1
0.2
0.
0.1

-0.1
0.
-0.1
2.8
0.

0.3
0.
0.5
-8.9
-0.2

1.4
0.2
0.5
-5.9
0.1

3
4
4
y
4

1483.0 1480.7 1471.9 1485.6 1509.2
1197.4 1207.5 1207.6 1220.0 1230.2 1228.5 1230.6 1231.5
1043.8 1043.2 1035.6 1050.4 1060.9 1058.5 1061.5 1062.6

0.2
0.3

0.1
0.1

0 9
1.0
1.4

1 6
0.8
1.0

5
5
5

0 1

2 2

1 0

c

4.9
6.8
3.9
0.8

1.6
1.7
1.1
3.1

4
7
7
4

3 5
2
5 1

0 5
NA
1 5

8
3
8

2
9
3

Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagri. establishments...
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
*41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
40. Employees in mfg., mining, construction . . . .
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age2

U,C,C

c,c,c

L,C,U
Percent
U,Lg,U

Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Total unemployed (inverted4)
L,Lg,U Thousands..
43. Unemployment rate, total ^inverted4)2
L,Lg,U Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy-rate (inv. 4 ) 2 .. L,Lg,U
do. . . .
*91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted4) .. Lg,Lg,Lg Weeks
44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over (inv. 4 ) 2 .. Lg,Lg,Lg Percent

2

B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. GNP in 1972 dollars
52 Personal income in 1972 dollars
*51. Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars ..
53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction 1972 dollars

C,C,C

c,c,c
c,c,c

A.r., bil. dol.
do
do

C,C,C

do

247 2

231 0

226 0

231 0

233 2

234 9

232 5

232 2

-1 0

c,c,c
c,c,c

1967=100
do
do. . . .
A.r., bil. dol.

152.5
146.4
164.0
674.5

147.1
136.6
161.1
665.2

142.1
129.8
157.3
657.5

149.1
138.6
163.4
662.9

151.5
140.9
165.2
683.6

151.7
141.3
165.3

151.1
140.1
165.2

151.7
141.3
165.0

-0.4
-0.8
-0.1

85.6
82
87.4

79.0
78
79. 8

75.7
76
74. 9

79.2
78
80.0

79. 7
NA
81. 5

Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production, total
73 Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars

c,c,c

Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB2
83. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEA2
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRB2

L,C,U

Percent
do
do. . . .

Orders and Deliveries:
6 New orders, durable goods
L,L,L
7. New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars
L,L,L
*8. New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 dol. . L,L,L
25 Chg. in unfilled orders, durable goods2
L,L,L
L.Lg,U
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance2 @
L,L,L

Bil dol
do
do. . . .
do
Bil. dol., EOP
Percent

77.20
76.34
75.14
81.46
82.27
81.34
8 2 . 2 1 83.25
41.40
36.87
35.98
38.10
38.02
37.74
38.01 38.31
36.46
32.80
32.13
34.30
33.56
32.62
34.38
33.67
3.26
0.99
1.41
1.71
1.26
1.08
1.13
1.57
267.88 279.75 274.62 279.75 283.53 280.82 281.95 283.53
63
40
35
45
49
46
50
52

1.1
0.7
5.4
0.05
0.4
4

1.3
0.8
-2.1
0.44
0.6
2

8.4
5.9
6.8
0.30
1.9
10

1.0
-0.2
-2.2
-0.45
1.4
4

Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars ..
75 Industrial production, consumer goods
54 Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars
55. Personal consumption expend., autos
58 Index of consumer sentiment (§)

C,C,C
C,C,C
C,L,C
C,L,U
U,L,U
L,C,C
L,L,L

Bil. dol
do. . . .
1967=100...
Mil. dol
do. . . .
A.r., bil. dol.
1Q1966=100

288.22
159.46
150.8
74,529
45,172
65. 3
66.0

-0.1
-0.5
-0.2
1.6
0.9

NA
NA
0.5
0.1
-0.4

-6.3

-0.6

6.8
3.0
3.1
3.3
0.8
12 6
6.3

NA
NA
-0.1
4.6
2.7
13. 9
-5.3

L.L.L
L.L,L

1967=100...
Number. . . .

131.7
1 2 1 . 1 117.9
120.0
43,714 44,337 44,604 47,470

1.8
6.4

NA
NA

C,L,L

L,C,U

0.4
0.9
-0.1

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and
Deliveries

311.61
153.35
145.5
79,721
43,660
61. 8
64.4

310.16
151.21
143.0
79,980
43,461
58. 7
67.8

331.39
NA 345.58
155.77
NA 157.42
147.4
147.2
147.3
82,586 86,419 85,463
43,796 44,986 44,768
66.1
75. 3
72.1
71.4
68.3

NA
345.19
NA
156.58
147.7
146.9
86,851 86,943
45,188 45,002
66.9

66.5

NA
NA

NA
NA

c

5
-j
c

5
5
c

B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12 Net business formation
13 New business incorporations




NA
118.2
NA 46,022

NA
NA

NA
HA

1
•J

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators —Continued
Basic data 1
Series title

Timing
classification 3

Unit
of

3dQ
1980

4th Q

lstQ
1981

1979

Jan.
1981

Feb.
1981

Mar.
1981

Jan.
to
Feb.
1981

Feb.
to
Mar.
1981

3dQ
to
4th Q

4th Q
to
'lstQ
1981

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment...
*20. Contr. and orders, plant and equip.,
1972 dol
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense . . .
27. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
11. New capital appropriations, mfg
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Business expend., new plant and equipment ..
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equip
86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dol. .,
Residential Construction Commitments and
Investment:
28. New private housing units started, total
*29. New building permits, private housing
89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dol

Bil. dol

24.67

24.23

26.31

27.39

23.74

-13.3

17.1

7.1

1.3

L.L.L
L.L.L

..do. . . .
do. . . .

14.65
21.64

13.26
21.30

13.06
20.61

13.58
21.38

13.52
22.89

14.17
24.51

12.34
20.59

14.05
23.56

-12.9
-16.0

13.9
14.4

4.0
3.7

-0.4
7.1

L,L,L

do. . . .

12.68

11.72

11.42

11.51

12.00

12.89

10.95

12.17

-15.1

11.1

0.8

4.3

L.C.U Mil.sq.ft. ..
U,Lg,U Bil. dol
C,Lg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP

90.52
22.20
76.66

77.96
26.38
91.85

69.50
24.29
89.72

85.24
25.89
91.85

84.37
NA
NA

78.70

84.41

90.00

7.3

6.6

22.6
6.6
2.4

-1.0
NA
NA

1.1

3.5

NA 318.05 310.70
178.7 178.5 178.0
161.7

NA
179.5

-2.3
-0.3

NA
0.8

3.7
2.7
1.0

NA
2.2
3.0

1,535
105.7
50.6

1,386
95.0
50.7

L,L,L

C.Lg,Lg A.r., bil. dol.

270.46 295.63 296.23 299.58 310.10

do. . . .
CLg,Lg
C,Lg,U 1967-100...
C,Lg,C A.r., bil. dol.

271.93 298.01 294.14 304.95
171.3
173.3 170.3 174.9
163.3
158.4 155.5 157.0

L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L

A.r., thous. .
1967=100...
A.r., bil. dol.

L,L,L

do.

1,745
123.8
59.1

1,292
95.5
48.1

1,390
112.0
44.7

1,660
99.2

1,214
94.1

1,284
91.8

-26.9
-5.1

5.8
-2.4

10.4
-5.6
13.2

-9.7
-10.1
0.2

-2.2

1.5

-5.52
40.7
0.11

-7.34
58.6
0.89

NA
NA
NA

-1.82
17.9
0.78

NA
NA
NA

12.79
-21.3
0.96

NA
NA
NA

NA 465.11 469.99
NA 263.17 262.90
NA 75.38 76.62

NA
NA
NA

1.0
-0.1

NA
NA
NA

1.6
-0.5
-1.5

NA
NA
NA

NA

NA

NA

-0.06

NA

NA

1.8

NA

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Chg. in business inventories, 1972 dol. 2 '
*36. Change in inventories on hand and on order,
1972 dollars (smoothed6)2
31. Chg. in book value, mfg. and trade invent.2 .
38. Chg. in mtl. stocks on hand and on order2 ..
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, total 5
*70. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 1972 dol. 5 . . . .
65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goodss
77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade,
constant dollars2
78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and on
order5

UL.L
L,L,L
L,L,L

do.
do.
Bil. dol. .

Lg,Lg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP
do. . . .
Lg.Lg.Lg
do. . . .
Lg.Lg.Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg Ratio

10.2

-2.9

-5.0

-7.2

-5.7

10.49
46.2
2.56

-9.60
30.0
0.42

-13.69
30.1
0.25

-0.90
8.8
1.21

NA
NA
NA

426.80 461.72 454.57 461.72
265.44 262.97 264.24 262.97
70.53
75.58
76.76
1.66

L,Lg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP

1.73

1.75

75.58

1.6

204.38 205.26

NA

204.27

Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*92. Chg. in sensitive prices (smoothed6)2
23. Spot market prices, raw industrials ®

L.L.L
U,L,L

Percent
1967=100...

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks(g)

UL.L

194143=10.

Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Corp. profits after taxes, 1972 dollars
79. Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj . .
80
do
in 1972 dol...
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 ..
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost nonfarm bus

L,L,L
L,L,L
L,C,L
L.C.L
L,L,L
L.L.L

A.r.f bil. dol.
do. . . .
do. . . .
do. . . .
Cents
1977=100..

167.8
99.6
109.2
65.5
5.7
96.8

163.1
88
100.3
55.1
4.9
96.3

159
85
99
54.0
4.6
96.5

164.3
86.6
98
52.2
4.9
96.4

L,L,L

A.r., bil. dol.
do. . . .

257.1
149.1

265.4
141.8

262.9
138.6

272.0
141.1

Lg,Lg,Lg

119.9

132.4

133.9

Lg,Lg,Lg Dollars. . . .
1967=100..
Lg,Lg,Lg
Percent. . . .
Lg,Lg,Lg

1.092
175.8

1.196
195.1

1.203
200.9

74.4

75.3

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, private business sector
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
domestic product (1972), nonfin. corp. . . .
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income2

1.68

0.01

199.20 204.27 200.63

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits

Cash Flows:
34. Net cash flow, corporate
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars

1.67

1.69

1.98
293.0

1.46
298.0

1.14
289.3

2.16
301.3

0.4

2.32
288.5

0.93
291.6

2.13
284.2

3.89
289.8

1.20
-2.5

1.76
2.0

1.02
4.1

0.16
-4.2

103.01 118.78 123.28 133.12 131.52 132.97 128.40 133.19

-3.4

3.7

8.0

-1.2

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
96.6

3.3
1.3
-1.3
-3.3
0.3
-0.1

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.2

NA
NA

3.5
1.8

139.5

2.3

1.8

NA
204.3

2.2
-0.4

NA
2.1

1.230
200.1

202.8

0.

75.4

NA .
NA

0.1

B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply (M1-B)2
102. Change in money supply (M2)2
*104. Chg. in total liquid assets (smoothed6)2
105. Money supply (M1-B), 1972 dollars
•106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars

L.L.L
L.C.U
LL.L
UL.L
L,L,L

Percent.
do.
do.
Bil. dol. .
do.

0.60
0.71
0.97
215.8
846.5

0.53
0.77
0.75
202.1
813.0

1.40
1.18
0.74
202.1
819.4

0.32
0.59
0.91
201.4
813.0

0.78
0.80
0.94
198.8
806.2

1.00
0.48
0.99
199.4
806.0

0.31
0.64
0.98
198.1
803.5

Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (M1-B)2
108. Ratio, pers. income to money supply (M2)2 .

C,C,C
C,Lg,C

Ratio

6.446
1.323

6.592
1.348

6.559
1.339

6.612
1.353

6.758
1.367

1.369

1.369

Credit
33.
112.
113.
110.

L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L

Flows:
Change in mortgage debt2
Change in business loans2
Change in consumer installment credit2
Total private borrowing




do. ..
A.r., bil.
do.
do.
do.

dol.
..
..
..

86.08
60.78
61.72 81.69
NA
22.88
24.38 35.54 -19.64
19.60
38.69
1.38 12.64
2.90
NA
356.98 284.12 282.74 340.72
NA

1.03
1.29
0.85
199.0
809.0

-0.69
0.16
-0.01
-0.7
-0.3

0.72
0.65
-0.13
0.5
0.7

0.

NA
53.94 67.37
NA 13.43
0.82 -12.64 -47.10 -13.46 •34.46
NA
10.43 23.95
NA 13.52

-1.08
-0.59
0.17
-0.3
-0.8

0.46
0.21
0.03
-1.3
-0.8

0.053
0.014

0.146
0.014

19.97
11.16
11.26
20.5

NA
-55.18
NA
NA

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data 1
Series title

Timing
classification 3

Unit
of

Percent change

Average
3d Q
1979

4th Q
1980

Feb.
1981

lstQ
1981

Feb.

Jan.
to
Feb.
1981

.Mar.
1981

3dQ
to
4th Q

Mar.
1981

4th Q
1st Q
1981

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7. Money and Credit-Con.
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures ( i n v . 4 ) ©
39. Delinquency rate, instal. loans (inv. 4 ) 2 s ...

L,L,L
L.L.L

Mil.dol
Percent, EOP

222.28
2.64

Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 )' 2 ©
94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve 2 ©

L,U,U
L,Lg,U

Mil.dol. .
do.

-1,131
1,338

-1,141
1,420

L,Lg,Lg
C,Lg,Lg
CLg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg
U,Lg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg

'ercent. .
. . . .do.
. . . .do.
. . . .do.
. . . .do.
. . . .do.
. . . .do.
....do.

11.19
10.04
8.74
10.05
6.52
10.89
13.18
12.67

13.36
11.61
10.81
12.77
8.60
13.42
15.17
15.27

Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds r a t e 2 ©
114. Treasury bill r a t e 2 ©
115. Treasury bond y i e l d s 2 © .
116. Corporate bond yields 2 ©
117. Municipal bond yields 2 ©
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 2 ©
*109. Average prime rate charged by b a n k s 2 © . . . .
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit 5
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large comm. banks
*95. Ratio, consumer install, credit to pers. income2

386.26 598.01

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

50.6
0.13

NA
NA

-872
1,229

-916 -1,076
1,405 1,278

-624
1,004

160
-127

-452
-274

761
915

-397
-474

16.57
14.37
12.01
14.37
9.98
14.69
19.91
19.21

19.08
14.72
11.65
14.01
9.68
14.23

15.93
14.90
12.23
14.60
10.10
14.79

14.70
13.48
12.15
14.49
10.16
15.04

-3.15
0.18
0.58
0.59
0.42
0.56

-1.23
-1.42
-0.08
-0.11
0.06
0.25

20.16

19.43

18.05

-0.73

-1.38

6.01
4.47
1.21
1.70
1.04
0.91
4.15
5.12

0.72
0.66
0.37
U.49
0.36
0.38
4.20
2.48

295.63
2.57

NA
NA

-508
788

-1,269
1,703

9.84
9.24
10.43
12.18
8.58
13.40
11.56
11.61

15.85
13.71
11.64
13.
9.62
14.31
15.71
16.73

Lg,Lg,Lg

Bil.dol., EOP

303.58

306.47 303.31

306.47

307.34

Lg,Lg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg

Bil. dol
Percent

147.06
14.79

163.76 162.81
14.14 13.86

170.91 172.25
13.52
NA

174.26 173.21 169.28
13.36 13.35
NA

-0.6
-0.01

-2.3
NA

5.0
-0.34

0.8
NA

0.7

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
B1. Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
331.
332.
333.
334.

Implicit price deflator, GNP
Consumer prices (CPI), all i t e m s ®
Change in CPI, all items, S/A2
CPI, food
Producer prices (PPI), all commodities©
PPI, crude materials
PPI, intermediate materials
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods

1972=100...
1967=100...
Percent
1967=100...

162.8
217.4
1.0
234.5

177.4
246.8
1.0
254.6

179.2
249.6
0.6
257.5

183.8
256.2
1.0
267.4

187.3
262.9
0.8
270.7

260.5
0.7
269.8

263.2
1.0
270.6

265.1
0.6
271.6

1.0
0.3
0.3

0.7
-0.4
0.4

2.6
2.6
0.4
3.8

1.9
2.6
-0.2
1.2

do.
do.
do.
do.
do.

235.6
282.2
242.8
216.7
215.7

268.7
304.3
280.3
239.6
248.9

272.9
314.3
283.3
242.9
253.5

279.1
327.7
290.4
249.5
258.5

286.7
326.8
298.6
255.5
264.1

283.5
322.1
296.8
253.0
261.5

286.9
331.4
297.9
255.8
263.6

289.6
327.0
301
257.7
267.2

1.2
2.9
0.4
1.1
0.8

0.9
-1.3
1.1
0.7
1.4

2.3
4.3
2.5
2.7
2.0

2.4
2.2

...
...
...
...
...

B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
341. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus..
346. Real avg. hourly comp., nonfarm business . .
370. Output per hour, private business sector

..do.

229.8

250.6

253.8

260.2

266.4

264.4

266.3

268.5

0.7

0.8

2.5

do. . .
1977 = 100..
do. . .
do. . .

105.6
118.6
99.1
99.4

101
130
95
99.0

101.8
131.6
95.9
99.2

101.2
134
95.1
98. 9

100.
138.3
95.1
99.8

101.0

100.8

101.0

-0.2

0.2

-0.6
2.4
-0.8
-0.3

2.7
0.
0.9

Total civilian labor force
Total civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Unemployed males, 20 years and over
Unemployed females, 20 years and over
Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of age . . .

Millions . . .
do. . .
Thousands.
do. . .
do. . .
do. . .

102.91
96.94
5,963
2,223
2,213
1,528

105.17
97.28
7,897
3,496
2,734
1,66

105.80
98.01
7,788
3,323
2,718
1,747

105.54
97.70
7,847
3,352
2,750
1,744

1.7
-1.6

-0.3
-3.7
5.2
-1.3

0.6
0.8
-1.4
-4.9
-0.6
4.8

Force Participation Rates:
Males,.20 years and over2
Females, 20 years and over2
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age2

Percent. . . .
do. . .
do. . .

79.
50.6
58.1

79.4
51.4
56.9

79.4
51.5
56.4

79.
51.4
56.4

78.9
51.9
56.9

78.8
51.8
57.0

0.5
0.2
-0.4

-0.2
-0.1
0.

-0.3
0.5
0.5

A.r.,bil.dol.
do. . .
do. . .
do. . .
do. . .
do. . .

494.4
509
-14
351.2
324.4
26.7

540.8
602.0
-61
384.0
355.0
29.1

540.8
615.0
-74.2
386
358
28.6

573.
641.1
-67.9
403.4
366
37.1

NA
660
NA
NA
374.4
NA

6.0
4.2
6.3
4.3
2.3
8.5

MA
3.0
NA
NA
2.2
NA

Mil.dol....
do. . .
do. . .
A.r.,bil.dol.

11,141 13,392
5,356 6,961
3,284 4,57
111.
131.7

13,319
7,270
5,113
131.4

13,905
7,010
4,729
141.6

Mil.dol.
do.
do.
do.
do.
do.

15,136 18,390
2,886 3,435
3,009 3,788
17,195 2 0 , 4 1
4,676 6,139
1,853 2,03G

18,727
3,480
4,081
19,597
5,38
2,171

19,060
3,596
3,968
20,548
6,060
2,133

C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
Labor
451.
452.
453.

104.72 104.98
97.2
97.06
7,448 7,921
3,261 3,631
2,600
2,54
1,640 1,689

105.68 106.18
98.41
97.93
7,764
7,754
3,305
3,312
2,725
2,680
1,734
1,76

78.7
51.9
57.0

-1.2
-1.2
-2. 5
1.0

79.
52.1
56.6

D. Government Activities
D 1 . Receipts and Expenditures
501.
502.
500.
511.
512.
510.

Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
Federal Government surplus or deficit 2 .
State and local government receipts . . . .
State and local government expenditures
State and local govt. surplus or deficit 2 . .
D2.

517.
525.
548.
564.

Defense Indicators

Defense Department obligations
Military prime contract awards
New orders, defense products
National defense purchases

NA 14,808
NA
NA
4,824
4,193
144

NA
NA
5,65

NA
NA
4,623

NA
NA
34.9

NA
NA
-18.3

4.4
-3.6
-7.5
7.8

NA
NA
2.0
2.3

5.0
-7.4
2.4
-5.5
9
-23.1

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

1.8
3.3
-2.8
4.9
12.6
-1.8

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

E. U.S. International Transactions
E 1 . Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.

Exports, total except military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Imports of automobiles and parts




18,825 19,764
4,295
3,977
4,058
4,155
23,194 21,922
7,359
8,018
2,264
1,74

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Average
4th Q
1979

1978

1st Q
1980

2dQ

3dQ
1980

4th Q
1980

lstQ
1981

2dQ
to
3dQ

3dQ
to

4th Q

4th Q
to
1st Q
1981

II. O T H E R I M P O R T A N T E C O N O M I C
MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
618.
620.
622.
651.
652.
668.
669.
667.

Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Merchandise trade balance2
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Income on foreign investment in the U.S. . . . . .
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on goods and services2

35,514
,517
43,953
,864
8,440
346
10,743
,492
5,518
365
55,260
,630
57,560 70 390
2,301
240

55,445
62,284
-6,838
19,008
10,874
85,222
83,452
1,770

50,239
59,397
-9,158
18,407
9,524
78,307
78,490
-183

54,604
65,452
10,848
20,824
10,762
85,521
86,330
-809

54,605
62,108
-7,503
16,620
10,518
81,767
82,882
-1,115

56,181
59,039
-2,858
18,756
10,700
86,015
79,995
6,020

56,391
62,536
-6,145
19,830
11,514
87,586
84,603
2,983

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

0.4
2.9
5.9
-4.9
4,645 -3,287
5.7
12.9
7.6
1.7
1.8
5.2
5.b
-3.5
7,135 -3,037

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

6ia
620
622
651
652
668
669
667

A.r., bil. dol.
do..
do. .
do. .
.......do..
A.r., dollars.
do. .

1436.9
2156.1
1423.0
1462.9
981.5
6,568
4,487

1480.7
2626.1
1483.6
1821.7
1018.4
6,646
4,571

1490.6
2496.3
1491.3
1710.1
1017.7
6,731
4,596

1501.9
2571.7
1502.8
1765.1
1021.0
6,767
4,600

1463.3
2564.8
1462.0
1784.1
1008.2
6,578
4,532

1471.9
2637.3
1476.9
1840.6
1018.5
6,597
4,565

1485.6
2730.6
1492.7
1897.0
1025.8
6,640
4,585

1509.2
2826.8
1515.0
1945.5
1032.2
6,732
4,604

3.2
1.0
0.3
0.7

0.9
3.5
1.1
3.1
0.7
0.7
0.4

1.6
3.5
1.5
2.6
0.6
1.4
0.4

50
200
213
224
225
217
227

A.r., bil.dol.
do. .
do. .
..do. ,
. .do.
. .do..
. .do.
..do.

904.8 930.9 935.1 941.6 943.4 919.3 930.8 946.8 957.8
146.3 146.6 135.8 146.0 145.4 126.2 132.6 139.1 146.6
345.7 354.6 358.4 361.3 361.5 356.6 354.9 360.4 363
412.8 429.6 440.9 434.3 436.5 436.5 443.3 447.3 447.4
1348.7 1510.9 1672
1582.3 1631.0 1626.8 1682.2 1751.0 1805.4
199.3 212.3 211.9 216.1 220.9 194.4 208.8 223.3 238
529.8 602.2 675.7 639.2 661.1 664.0 674.2 703.5 724.4
619.6 696.3 785.2 727.0 749.0 768.4 799.2 824.2 842.8

1.3
5.1
-0.5
1.6
3.4
7.4
1.5
4.0

1.7
4.9
1.5
0.9
4.1
6.9
4.3
3.1

1.2
5.4
0.9
0.
3.1
6.6
3.0
2.3

231
233
238
239
230
232
236
237

2.7
3.7
-2.2
5.5
5.6
-1.4

3.0
2.3
1.5
6.4
3.8
9.5

241
243
30
240
242
245

1.1
3.0
-0.1
3.6
2.3

261
263
267
260
262
266

4.
3.9
3.3
7.3
7.6
1.0

256
257
255
252
253
250

1.2
4.3

NA
3.6
-1.9
NA
0.9
4.4

220
280
282
286
284
288

1.2
1.4
-12.4
14.8
-1.0

NA
NA
-6.5
NA
-0.4

290
295
292
298
293

MiL do!.
, .do.
..do.

do.,
do.
do.
do.
do.

A. National Income and Product
A 1 . G N P a n d Personal Income
50.
200.
213.
224.
225.
217.
227.

GNPin 1972 dollars
GNP in current dollars
Final sales, 1972 dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars . . .
Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars
Per capita disposable pers. income, 1972 d o l . . .

1483.0
2413.9
1472.9
1641.7
1011.5
6,721
4,584

A 2 . Personal Consumption Expenditures
231.
233.
238.
239.
230.
232.
236.
237.

Total, 1972 dollars
Durable goods, 1972 dollars
Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars . .
Services, 1972 dollars
Total, current dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars.
Services, current dollars

A 3 . Gross Private Domestic Investment
241.
243.
30.
240.
242.
245.

Total, 1972 dollars
Total fixed investment, 1972 dollars
Change in busrness inventories, 1972 dol. 2
Total, current dollars
Total fixed investment, current dollars
Chg. in bus. inventories, current dol. 2

..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.
..do.

229.7
215.8
14.0
375.3
353.2
22.2

232.6
222.5
10.2
415.8
398.3
17.5

203.6
206.6
-2.9
395.3
401.2
-5.9

221.5
222.2
-0.7
410.0
410.8
-0.8

218.3
219.2
-0.9
415.6
413.1
2.5

200.5
199.2
1.3
390.9
383
7.4

195.3
200.2
-5.0
377.1
393.2
-16.0

200.5
207.6
-7.2
397.7
415.1
-17.4

206.6
212.4
-5
423
431.0
-7.9

-2.6
0.5
-6.3
-3.5
2.5
-23.4

..do.
..do.
..do.

277. 8
99.8
178.0
432.6
153.4
279.2

281.8
101.7
180.1
473.8
167.9
305.9

290.0
108.1
181.9
534.7
198.9
335.8

285.
103.
182.
496.4
178.1
318.3

290.1
107.6
182.5
516.8
190.0
326.8

291.9
110.7
181.2
530.0
198.7
331.3

288.2
106.9
181.3
533.5
194.9
338.6

289.8
107.4
182.4
558.6
212.0
346.6

292.9
110.6
182.3
574.1
219.6
354.5

-1.3
-3.4
0.1
0.7
-1.9
2.2

127.5
103.0
24.6
219
220
-0.6

146.9
109.2
37.7
281.3
267.9
13.4

161.1
109.1
52.0
339.8
316.5
23.3

154.8
112.6
42.2
306.3
298.7
7.6

165.9
115.8
50.1
337.3
329.1
8.2

160
108.9
51.7
333.3
316
17.1

160.5
102.8
57.6
342.4
297.9
44.5

157.4
108.9
48.5
346.1
322.7
23.3

164.9
113.1
51.8
371.5
347.
24.3

0.
-5.6
5.9
2.7
-5.8
27.4

1745.4 1963.3 2121.4 2031, 2088.5 2070.0 2122.4 2204.8
NA
1299.7 1460.9 1596.5 1518, 1558.0 1569.0 1597.4 1661.8 1721.8
117.1 131.6 130.6 136.3 133.7 124.9 129.7 134.0 131.4
185.5 196.8 182
189
200.2 169
177.9 183.3
NA
27.4
31.8
30.5
31.0
31.2
32.0
32.4
31.5
32.7
115.8 143.4 179.8 156.5 165.4 175.3 185.3 193.3 201.9

2.5
1.8
3.8
5.1
1.6
5.7

A 4 . Government Purchases
o f Goods and Services
261.
263.
267.
260.
262.
266.

Total, 1972 dollars
Federal Government, 1972 dollars
State and local governments, 1972 dollars
Total, current dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
State and local governments, current dollars . . .

256.
257.
255.
252.
253.
250.

Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . . .
Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars . . .
Net exports of goods and sen/., 1972 dol. 2 . . . .
Exports of goods and services, current dol
Imports of goods and services, current dol
Net exports of goods and sen/., current dol. 2 . .

. .do.
. .do.
. .do.

A 5 . Foreign Trade
..do.
..do.
..do.

..do.
..do.
..do.

-1.9
5.9
-9.1
1.1
8.3
-21.2

A 6 . National Income and Its Components
220.
280.
282.
286.
284.
288.

National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj . .
Rental income of persons with CCAdj . .
Net interest

290.
295.
292.
298.
293.

Gross saving (private and govt.) .
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit 2 .
Personal saving rate2

. .do
..do
..do
..do
. .do
. .do

4.0
3.3

A 7 . Saving

, .do.
do.
do..
do..
Percent . . .

355.2
279,1
76.3
-0.2
5.2

411.9
312.7
86.2
11.9
5.2

401.9
331.6
101.3
-32.1
5.6

402.0
315.7
80.7
4.4
4.7

404.5
326.7
86.4
-9.6
4.9

394.5
325.8
110.0
-42.5
6.2

402.0
334.6
111.4
-45.6
6.1

406.7
339.3
97.6
-30.8
5.1

NA
NA
91.3
NA
4.7

1.9
2.7
1.3
-3.1
-0.1

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tor those indicated by (§), which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles (including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of BCD. NA = not available, a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period. A.r. = annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA • inventory valuation adjustment. CCA = capital consumption adjustment. NIA = national income accounts.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
2
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at ail turns: L = leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg = lagging; U = unclassified.
4
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.




CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart A l . Composite Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (May)
P

(Aug.) (Apr.)

T

P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

Index: 1967=100
160 -

910. Index of twelve leading indicators (series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 106)

150-

-9

140 •

5

130120110 100 -

XX

80

-23

V

f

/

160 -

-2

A/

150 n

-l

1.40 -

I

-6

-2

/

S

4

920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 41, 47, 51,

57

—\ sJ*

3

i

V

i

-t
•10

-1

J

—

930. Index of six lagging indicators (series 62,70,72,91,95,109)

T_
vy

••*• •: ' 50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

7F

59

60

61

G2

63

64

65

66

67

88 6G

78

79

30

1981

NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
data for these series are shown on page 60.
forCurrent
FRASER

Digitized


10

APRIL 1981

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (May)
P T

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

adjustments (series l, k 3, 5)

. : - f t l l ...
^ . t ? I i i i i i •••••

|Hj. Krv
flitf
jll

'•• .•

•

•'

1
•

• • • ; m • :
.... .?ftB|ii.. ....
^ i i f .

••=••

.• :::r iHr

1

' " * § • • '

:

•• ^mM

IP -; ' Index: 1967=100

mm

^ ^ ^ • ^ f l l t t l "'••• •'•'

•

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

'•

Y.li.

itlii
.iliill.

, mi

110100-

.

i mi
nil

90-

111""

p.;

80120110100901201101009011010090-

916. Profitability Series 19. 26.

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
1981
Federal ReserveAPRIL
Bank of
St. Louis

11

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

(July) (May)

T

P

T

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

(Dec.)(Nov.)

T

P

T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours) 1 I L L

414039-

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees—inverted scale)
12-

8. New orders for consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
LLL

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent)

im

12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment,

i37ra5iBnirarTO

Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, 65, and 66.




12

APRIL 1981

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components-—Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T

(July) (May)
P
T

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
200-

29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100)

180-

fOT

160140120100-

80-

60 J

36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

V V w
92. Change in sensitive crude materials prices, smoothed1 (percent) 1 L,LyL

104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed1 (percent) [ t J

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)

106. Money supply—M2—in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
IXX

50
1

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

5S

.•>

>I

o4

76

'7

?B

79

80 !9H?

This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.

Current
data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, and 71.

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
U P APRIL
FederalH Reserve
Bank of1981
St. Louis

13

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
(Nov.)(Oct.)
P
T

(July) (May)
P T

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)

51. Personal income less transfer payments,
1972 dollars (ann. rate, bit.

57. Manufacturing and trade sales,
1972 dollars (bil. dot.)

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.




14

APRIL 1981

IICII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A ]

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
(Nov.)(Oct.)
P
T

(July) (May)
P
T

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly ^
reporting large commercial banks (EiTUoTJ

^

v

^

y

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent)

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 82 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRILof 1981
Federal Reserve Bank
St. Louis

ItCII

15

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

P

T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

IMijirial Employrtllit Adjustments |
1. Average workweek. Droductlon workers manufacturing (hours}

21. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
4-

3-

2-

2. Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
54-

5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
200-

300-

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 empkyees-Hnverted scale) l l t L , L l

2-

4-J

4. Quit rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
3T

1956 57

58

59 60

61

62 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .




16

APRIL 1981

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

T

48. Employee-hours in
(ann. rate, bil. hours)

41. Employees on nonagricuttural payrolls (millions)

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

!!€(»

17

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr.)

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

PI

P

T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.
T

[Cojpfrehensive Elgfoyment—Con7|

6O-1

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (percent)

~,

±^

fwfl

z

59-

r

53-

56-

| Comprehensive Unamploymentl
37. Number unemployed, total (millions—inverted scale)

J

X
43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)

U.U.U

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

€4

6F>

6t

3 9^

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.




18

APRIL 1981

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

P

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

T

;ft§
50. GNP in 1972 dollars, 0 (ann. rate, bil.

Di. rersonai income tess
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

clc

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRII 1QR1
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

itm

19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P

(Apr.) f FcU i

T

(Dty ) iN

PI

P

P

I
170 —

160-

I Industrial Production!

150-

LU

47. Industrial production, total (index: 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 ) ^

X
74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(index: 1967=100)

73. Industrial production, durable manufactures
(index: 1967=100)

49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars, Q

(inn. iti; bit. M) j = ^

| Capacity Utilization|
83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (BEA), Q (percent)

82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB), Q (percent)

WTMi ofcapocity utiffeitfon7 v^a^£} Q (pwcoit)

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.




20

AODII

mm

Itilfc

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

7. New orders, durable goods industries, 1972 dollars

8. New orders
in 1S72

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders,

32. Vendor performance, percem or companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent)

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.


ADDII
1QQ1


Kill

21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

T

P

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

T

380

z

1 Consumption and Trade]

A>

340
300
260
220

180-

56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars—-,

(bil-dol.) fcxxi
140-

57. Manufacturing and trade sales
in 1972 dollars (bil. dot.)

100170-1 „
160H 150H ^
140-1 s
130-J 00

75. Industrial production, consumer goods
(index: 1967=100)

908070-

60-

54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (bil. M . ) ~ ^ J
50-

40-

59. Sales of retail stores hi 1972 dollars (bil. dot.)

SOD

X

80706050-

40-

30-

55. Personal consumption expenditures,
automobiles, Q (arm. rate, bil doL)
iLC.Cl

20-

58. Index of consumer sentiment (1st Q 1966=100)
1009080706050-

il-U-l

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.




22

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

i Formation of Business Enterprises!
^->*

12. Net bus!ness formation (index: 1967-=100)

li

v

160 140 120 100 -

13. New business incorporations (thous3nds)

I Business Investment Commitments 1
20. Contracts and ordersforplant and equipment
\n 1972 dollars (bit dol.) . X

10. Contracts and ordersforplant and equipment
k current dollars (bil. dol.) j

27. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries,
nondefense, in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) X

24. Manufacturers' new orders, caabl goods industries,

9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings
sq. u. w now area; m u i moving

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.
FRASER

Digitized for


23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Mar.)
T

lnvestnt«?Commitments—Con.

11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dol.)

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q

61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, Q
(ana rate, Ml. d&J [F7

I Bifijftess lnvestrr|§|: Expenditures

69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (am. rate, bil.

76. Industrial

(index: 1967=100)

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

Currant data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.




24

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)
T

180160140-

iresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars, Q (ann.

12010080-

60-

40-

20 J

2.6 T
2.422'
2.01.81.61.41.21.00.8-

29. New building permits,
200180160140120100-

60

J

70605040-

30 J
ipfliF.,
f S I I I

1956 57

•-..- ••..

••••.•••• ••

58

s^s^s-:'

$

59

W

60

m

•

61

••

• •.

62

-

•'

" .

63

•

•

64

•

••

•

65

66

-K-r-•:>..-.•;

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77 78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
IM II
M
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1

25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS —Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

P

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

T

30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars, Q fanrt rate. h |

+30-

1L.L.U
y\

^

+20-

w*

+10-

\ /

0-

-10-20-

36. Net change in inventories on hand UN)gm iVn^r. 1.^7?
(arm. rate, b&. dol.j moving a\^—4te^) j X T T l i

31. Change in book «*•» mawArfmi^;.fi||.toib

(arm. rate, bit dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies
manufacturing (bil. dol,; MCD moving

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

1

This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.




26

•""*"

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
500450400350300-

250-

Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 d o t e

200908580757065605550-

65. Book value of
of finished goods

4540353025-

20-

77. Ratio, deflated inventories to

mm

1.8-j

1.71.61.5220200180160140120 100 -

78. Stocks of materials and supplies on
manufacturing (bil. dol.)

80-

60-

40->
1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ADDII
1QQ1
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

[Sensitive CommoU^ Prices [
92. Change in sensitive crude materials prices (percent; moving avg.-4-temi 1 )

,;

23. Spot market prices, raw industrials (index: 1967=100)

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index.- 194143=10)

16. Corporate profits after taxes, cutmd dullard Q
(arm. rate, bil. dol.)

[Profits and Profit Margins!

1& Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, Ml. dol.)

80. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj,
1972 dollars, 0 (ann. rata bil. dol.)

79. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj,
current dollars, Q (ana rate, bil. *fc>

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

1

This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.




28

APPII

1QQ1

tun

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Mar.)
T

111 111:.-.:,.

14-

m

121086108-

prtrfits (after taxes) with inventory valuation and
adjustments to total corporate domestic income,

6-

2-

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all

7-

5-

3-

26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm
104102100989694320280240200-

160-

35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972
120-

80-

40-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

BCII

 APRIL 1981


29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B j

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T
160-

lUnJlabor Costs j i t Labor Share!

150140-

s

130120-

X

11010090-

63. Unit labor cost, private business sector, Q
(index: 1977=100)

70-

601.3-

S

12*

/

1.11.00.9-

0.8-

68. Labor cost (currert dollars) per unit of gross domestic product
(1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporation^ Q (dollars)

0.7-

220-t
210200190180170160150-

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacture* (index: 1967=100)

140130120110100-

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, Q (percent)
7876747270-

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30




APRIL 1981

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
IBf 11111:18
im iiiti ..

in money supply Ml-B _ I L L L
MCD moving avg.-6-term)

in money supply M2
MCO movira avt-*tenn) I L.C.U

104. Change in total Squid asseb (percent moving

1-B-in 1972 doUars (bil. dot.)

liix

107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml-B. 0

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

1

This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
IMHl .__
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Mar.)
T

ICrtjit Flows!

33. Change in mortgage debt (ami rate, M, dol)

112. Change in bank loans to busiofisse

+ 40-

113. Change in consumer installment credit (ana rate, M. dot)

+30+20+ 100-10-20-30-

110. Total private borrowin& Q (ana rate, bil. dol.)

100-

50 -*

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.




32

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Mar.)
T

ICfiilDifficultiesj
14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil. d o l . inverted scale; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, consum
' ^ •.. (percent—inverted seale);
• ;§jj 1,LL I

IBaJlJfteservesl ' ' | |

93. Free reserves (bil. do*.—inverted scale)

94. Member bank borrowing from
the Federal Reserve (M. dd.)

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.




64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T
201918-

Rates!

1716151413-

119. Federal funds rate (percent)

116. Corporate bond yields (percent)

115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
ICle.Lgl

118. Secondary mariiet yieWs on FHA mortgages (percent)
-

*

•

,AA~7'

2-

f
rj

117. Municipal bond yields (percent)

1956

57

58

59




60

61

62

63

64

Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Mar.)
T

{Interest Rate$~Cj|;

67. Bank isles on short-term business loans (percent)

5-i
J

' '

'<f

• •-•

109. Avenge prime rate charged by banks (percent)

330 340300260 220-

[Outstanding Debtf

180-

66. Consumer installment credit (bil. dol.)
140 -

100200180 160-

7 2 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
weekly reporting large commercial •
banks (bi. dol)

m

z

14012010080-

6016-

Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent)
14-

12-

10-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCIt

35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

Percent rising

950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span**-"-, 1-mo. s p a n — )

100-1

50-

0J

951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span—•», 1-ma. s p a n — )
100 T

."..*! if •..•!.'!.".

H i 5/

jj

ir in ?

j;

95Z Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — - )
100 T

so-

% 1 . Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-20 industries (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )
100 T

96Z Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-51 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span — )
100-1

50-

963. Employees on private nonagnculturai payrolls—172 industries (6-mo. span—i

1-mo. span—)
100-f

J
1956

57

58

i

59

60

61

62

63

64

85

66

67

68

89

70

71

72

•

73

y
74

Vm

r

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.




36

APPII

1QCM

50-

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

Percent rising
964. New orders, durable goods industries-35 industries (9-mo. span—•, 1-mo. s p a n — )
100-1

50-

965. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 industries (4-Q moving a v g . - ~ , 1-Q span •—•)
90-i

966. Industrial production—24 industries (6-tflo. span——*, l-m& s p a n — )
100-i

50-

967. Spot market prices, raw industrials—13 industrial materials (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )
100 T

50-

968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks—53-82 industries (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )
100 *i

0-1
1

960. Net profits, manufacturing-about 700 companies (44} span)

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/APRIL 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES A N D RATES OF C H A N G E — C o n t i n u e d

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
vOec.)

P

(Nov.)
T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec ) (Nov.)

(Mar.)
T

3

Percent rising

Actual
- ~
Anticipated •••••-•

(Nov.)
P

T

(Mar.)
T

Actual
**-•
Anticipated** •

Percent rising

970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment-18 industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures

974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

100 *i

V
(b) Later anticipations^
975. Level of inventor^s, manufacturing and trade (4^J span)1

(a) Actual expenditures

\VA

976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

971. New orders, manufacturing (4-( span)1

v

V

90-

/••

80-

/

VV

/0-

V

•

60-

972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

977. Selling prices, wholesale trade

(«? span)

1

90-

10090V

Ai

"I ii v

807060-

973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade

(4-Q span)

978. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1

1

100-

100-

90-

90-

V

V
1969 70

V

80-

i

70-

807060-

60-

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

1969 70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about
1,400 business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.




38

APRII

Kill

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C3. Rates of Change
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb
P
T

(Nov.)
P

910c Composite index of twelve
(series 1, 3, 8,12,19,

(Mar.)
T

1-mo. span
3-mo. span

indicators
32, 36, 92, 104,

920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(series 41, 47, 51, 57)

930c. Composite index of six lading indicators
(series 62, 70 72, 91, 9 | 409)

50c. GNP in constant (1972) Mars (1-Q span)

§3|g
47c. Index of industrial production

48c. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments

51c Personal income less transfer
payments in 1972 dollars

-MrVwviJH
litf

bit

60

1,1

b,?

63

I1- *

68

6a

70

71

!

"'

?\

/'•*

76

77

78

19

80

19"

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series
were published.

ItCII

APRIL 1981



39

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov )
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Mar.)
T
3000280026002400220020001800-

200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)

1600-

X
X] . I -

/

s

1S';O-

\L

xz
223. Personal income In current dollars
(ann. rate, bil. dol.) \

.-—A
^^—224. Disposable personal income in current
ikkm, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

Dispb^^TwreoniriSSfhelnHI?

217. Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars (ann. rate, thous. dol.)

227. Per capita disposable personal income in
1972 dollars, Q (ann.rate,thous. dol.)

1956

57

58

59

60

H

t:\

',:

84

67

88

69

70

71

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.




40

APRIL

1981

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC PLEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

20001800160014001200-

dollars (current)

Personal consumption expenditures—

1000900
800700-

230. Total, Q

600500400-

237. Services,
300 -

-236. NonduraWe goods, Q
240?;0

;oo
180

23Z Durable goods, Q

^^ j± y
(1(1 „,•

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81.


APRIL 1981


BCII

41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Continued

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

Mar.)
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
480440-

11

Gross private domestic investment—

400 360320280 240 -

a a Toy, Q
200-

J

160-

242. Total fixed investment, Q
120-

AA

J*2Zf
245. Change in business inventories, Q
v

y

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)

N

243. Toy fixed investment, Q

30. Change in business inventories, Q

r:?h

5?

58

59

60

in.

62

G

B7

68

69

K

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.




42

APRIL 1981

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

III

isi
11

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Mar.)
T

' ; • Hi

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

.
• wmi
••'•:.. ' l i l t . '

It!!

.IBIS •

|l i
*

—

»

•

s of goods and services—

660620580540-

mW

•

fPSis

500460-

I

420380340300 -

^JT-:,..

260. Toy, 0
:

i ^ y ^

260-

••;•[•

220 -

180 H

j*

2 6 6 . State-WA l o c i
j r ^
governments, Q ^ ^ ^ ^

/

M§i

140 —

lill
100-

f

7SL Federal Government, Q

60 J

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972) |
340-|
300?60220-

180-

267. State and local governments, Q

X

140-

100-

263. Federal Government, Q

60-*
1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
ADDII
1QQ1
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

itni

43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A5. Foreign Trade
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current) I

252. Exports of goods and services, Q

253. Imports of goods and services, Q

250. Net exports of goods and services, 0

200
180
160
140

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)

120

256. Exports of goods and services, Q - ^
100
30

60 J

257. Imports of goods and services, Q

+70
+60

z

+ 50
+40

+ 30

255. Net exports of goods and services, Q

+ 20+ 10-

J_

0-

-10-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.




44

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

billion dollars (current)

±L
220. National income, Q

24002200200018001600140012001000900800700600-

280. Compensation of employees, Q
500400300-

286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q

/

z

200180160140120 1009080706050-

288. Net interest, Q
40-

and capita! consumption adjustments, Q

V

30-

20-

284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, Q

1956 57 58

59 60

61 62 63 64

65 66

67 68 69 70

71

72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/APPII IQfti
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Kill

45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A7. Saving
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec) (Nov »
P
T

(Mar.)
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

_,
[IV

290. Gross saving (private and government),

240-

Q

298. Govemmert surplus or deficit, O

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.




46

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

320280-

/

j

440-j
400360-

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

1

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

I Percent
70-1

m
235, Personal consumption expenditures, Q

65-

6(H
20 - I

268. State and local government purchases
of goods and services, Q
15-

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q
\

10-

248. Presidential fixed investment, Q
249. Residential fixed investment, Q
"247. Change in business inventories, Q
251. Net exports of goods and services, Q

Percent

[Percent of National Income|
64. Compensation of employees, Q

s\

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments, Q

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

73

74

75

76

71

78

79

80 198 1

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.


APRIL 1981


ItCII

47

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart Bl. Price Movements
(Dec.) (Nov.)

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

PI

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

Index: 1972=100

200
190
180'
170 •
160'
150'
140
130
120'
L10 -

310. Implicit price deflator, GNP,Q-

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

I Percent changes at annual rate |

310c Implicit price deflator, •
GNP
(1-Q span)
a i r u-W
span;
>s^

311c Fixed-weighted price Mflf t grpss business
product (1-Q span)

311. Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product, Q

334c Finished consumer goods

ltJflw

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1381

..,9 70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.




48

APRIL 1981

BCII

OTHF- ^>-:\-:Tr\h)
B

I

Kv^C.vnC MEASURES

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
'Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)
PI

(Mar.)
T

Consumer prices—

Percent changes at annual rate
320c. Ati items (6-month span)

^t^W
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity

Index: 1967=100

340. Average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy (current dollars)1

UJ

341. Real average hourly earnings of production
Index: 1977*100
346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q s .

LJJ

345. Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars)

iViSf

57

58

59

80

61

62

83

64

65

*>•>

>*>'

hH

VA

71

72

73

74

75

78

77

78

79

80

1.981

1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.


APRIL 1981


49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

'Nov.)
P

(Mar )
T

[Wages—Con7|
Change in average hourly eamir^s of production
workers, private nonfarm economy1 —

6-month spans (ann. rate) >

;j

340c Current-dollar earnings jtf

341c Real earnings

6-month spans (ann. rate)

Change in average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, ail industries—
348. First year average changes, Q (ann

rate)—i

349. Average changes over life o f .
contract, Q (ann. rate)
1 Productivity]

358. Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarm business sector,
370. Output per hour, all persons,
private business sector, Q
370c Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q
i-<juarter spans (ann. rate)

. 358

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

Percent change

t

70

71

00 1981

2
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make
them comparable to the annualized 6-month changes. See the current data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.




50

APRIL 1981

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
i Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T
11010510095-

441. Civilian labor force, total (millions)

90-

85-

**T-—"

80-

442 Total enjoyed

7570 J

^

y

Labor force participation rates (percent)—
^^
^
k

90-

451. Males 20 yens and over

HI

85-

75-

453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age
55504540-

Number unemployed (millions)—
654343-

444. Mates 20 years and over
^ >*A

« i Females 20 years

j^^^sCZ^s
765-

447. Number unemployed, full-timeworkers (millions)

448. Number employed part-time for economic

432-J

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.




51

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

T

P

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

T

[Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

50Z Federal Government expenditures, Q

501. federal Government receipts, Q

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit Q

511. State and local government receipts, Q

512. State and local government expenditures, Q

510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

ADDII

1QO1

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.




52

urn

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

P

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

T

Measures #f Defense Activity|
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(bil. d d ; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

525. Defense Department mitary prime contract awards
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

543. C^ense Department g?r?ss unpaid obligatkjns (>utstanding (bil. dol.)

1

548. Manufacturers'new orders, defense yoducts
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/APRIL 1 9 8 1
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

53

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

T

P

T

(Nov.)

(Mar.)

P

T

|Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity)
557. Output of defense and space equipment (index: 1967=100)

120-1
110100 90-

70601413 •
1211"
10 •
9-

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (bil. dol.)

5-

70656055-

45 -

561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (bil. dol.)M

403b3025-

201413i? -

580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military
assistance (bil. dol^ IKD trmng a^.-6-tenu)

Ji

11109-

6544,54.0-

588. Manufacturers1 shipments, defense products
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-^-term)

3.53.02.52.0-

1.5-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .




54

APRIL 1981

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Dec) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Mar.)
T

Measures of Defense Activity—Con.|
570. Employment in defense products industries (millions)
1.81.61.41.21.0-

Defense Department personnel (millions)—
577. Military, active duty
3.53.02.52.0-

578. Civilian, direct hire employment

1.5-

1.0-

0.5 J
160 T

Defensejjrchasesl

140-

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and servicesfornational
defense, Q (arm. rate, HI. do!.)

120100-

60-

40-

565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent)
10987654-

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.




64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

I

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Chart El. Merchandise Trade
(Aug.) (Apr.)

p

(Apr.) (Feb )

r

(Dec) (Nov.)
P
T

PI

(Nov.)
P

(Mar)
T

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-5-term)

604. Exports of agricultural products,
t o y (bil. dol.)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bil. dol.)
2622181410-

61Z General imports (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4term)
10.09.08.07.06.0;
\0-

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (bil. dol.)

616. Imports of automobiles and parts (bil. dol.)
0 6H

0.4-

1956

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

Current data for these series are shown on page 92.




56

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T

(Nov.)
P

(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T

(Mar.)
T

SftiS

liiii
mm •

mm
«

•I -

• illii •
iiitft
i m •.••

.JRB

•

ill

•I

Mi

•I

62Z Merchandise trade balance, Q
618. Exports,

651. Income on U.S. investments

1956 57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

NOTE: Annual totals are shown for the period prior to 1960.
FRASER
Current
data for these series are shown on page 93.

Digitized for


65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80 1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

C h a r t F l . Industrial P r o d u c t i o n

[index: 1967=100
Industrial production—

721. OECD European countries .

47. United States

728. Japan

725. West Germany •

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.




58

722. United Kingdom

F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

C h a r t F2. C o n s u m e r Prices

Percent changes at annual rate

C h a r t F3. Stock Prices

6-month spans

Index: 1967=100
Stock prices-

Consumer prices—

19. United States
320c. United

745. West Germany
735c. West Germany

736c. France

733c Canada

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

BCII


APRIL 1981


59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

M |

Year
and
month

910. Index of
12 leading indicators (series
1, 3, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
92, 104, 106)x

920. Index of
4 roughly
coincident indicators (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

930. Index of
6 lagging indicators (series
62, 70, 72,
91, 95, 109)

(1967 = 100)

940. Ratio,
coincident
index to
lagging index1

COMPOSITE INDEXES
Leading indicator subgroups
913. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1, 2, 3,
5) 1

914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29) x

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

915. Inventory
916. Profitinvestment
ability (series
and purchasing
19, 26, 80) *
(series 8, 32, 36,
92)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

917. Money
and financial
flows (series
104, 106, HO)1

(1967 = 100)

1979
January
February
March

142.6
142.3
143.2

144.8
144.9
E)146.6

157.4
158.5
158.4

92.0
91.4
92.6

98.5
98.4
98.0

113.9
113.9
115.5

107.4
108.3
1)108.8

93.2
92.2
92.2

148.6
145.6
144.5

April
May
June

140.3
141.4
141.6

144.1
145.6
145.0

161.8
162.5
163.6

89.1
89.6
88.6

94.6
97.3
96.7

113.6
113.3
113.9

107.8
107.3
106.6

92.3
91.7
91.8

146.1
146.9
148.4

July
August
September

141.2
140.1
140.1

145.4
145.0
144.9

164.8
166.4
170.6

88.2
87.1
84.9

96.4
96.0
96.4

113.6
112.9
114.0

106.1
105.7
104.6

91.7
92.0
91.8

148.6
148.3
146.2

October
November
December

137.8
135.6
135.2

145.1
145.0
145.2

175.9
179.1
177.9

82.5
81.0
81.6

96.6
96.1
96.3

112.7
112.0
112.4

103.3
102.3
102.3

90.8
90.3
90.6

143.9
140.4
138.3

January
February
March

134.7
134.1
131.5

146.1
145.2
143.5

178.4
180.8
190.0

81.9
80.3
75.5

96.3
96.4
94.5

111.6
109.9
107.8

102.7
102.1
101.6

90.9
91.6
89.6

137.2
138.7
136.4

April
May
June

126.2
123.4
124.4

140.5
138.0
136 7

H>196.2
183.5
168 5

71.6
75.2
81 1

'90.3
88.3
oq a

104.3
103.2
104 7

100.3
98.8
97 7

88.7
88.5

131.8
127.3

ftQ 7

1?Q ft

July
August
September

128.6
131.1
135.2

136.4
136.9
138.4

163.6
161.7
164.2

83.4
84.7
84.3

92.0
92.8
94.0

106.3
107.3
H09.4

r98.6
99.6
101.7

90.6
91.4
91.5

133.8
137.1
138.9

October
November
December

136.3
r!37.8
rl37.3

140.2
141.4
142.0

168.3
175.3
190.6

83.3
80.7
74.5

95.0
95.5
96.0

107.6
108.5
r108.2

103.4
r!O3.5
H03.2

91.7
92.1
91.9

139.8
140.4
H39.1

135.9
135.2
137.1

r!42.9
142.8
4
142.9

189.0
186.2
177.7

r75.6
r76.7
p80.4

r95.7
r95.2
p94.9

H07.4
r!O5.6
p!06.4

101.5
H02.9
P1O4.7

92.0
P91.5
(NA)

rl39.7
r!39.0
p!38.4

1980

1981
January
February
March

2

3

5

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by J j ) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 1 1 .
lr
The following series reached their high values before 1979: Series 910 (143.6) in October 1978, series 940 (106.6) in March 1977, series 913 (99.1) in December 1978, series 914 (117.2) in October 1978, series 916 (97.2) in August 1977, and series 917 (151.1) in November
1978.
2
Excludes series 12 for which data are not yet available.
Excludes series 12 and 36 for which data are not yet available.
"•Excludes series 57 for which data are not yet available.
5
Excludes series 70 and 95 for which data are not yet available.




60

APRIL 1981

ito

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

L, L, L

L, C, L

1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing 1

21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production workers,
manufacturing1

(Hours)

(Hours)

L,L, L

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing x

(Per 100 employees)

L, C, L

5. Average
weekly initial
claims, State
unemployment
insurancex 2

(Thous.)

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

Marginal Employment Adjustments
L, L, L

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing1

(Per 100 employees)

L, Lg, U

4. Quit rate,
manufacturing

(Per 100 employees)

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

U, C, C

60. Ratio, helpwanted advertising to persons
unemployed1

46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising
in newspapers

48. Employeehours in nonagricultural
establishments

(Ratio)

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
bit. hours)

1979
January
February
March

40.6
40.6
40.6

3.7
3.7
3.7

4.2
4.1
4.0

344
334
347

0.9
0.9
0.9

2.2
H>2.2
2.1

0.805
0.785
0.780

161
158
156

168.70
168.89
170.04

April
May
June

39.3
40.2
40.1

2.9
3.4
3.3

4.0
4.0
4.0

434
350
375

1.1
1.0
1.2

2.1
2.0
2.0

0.780
0.794
0.796

155
154
153

166.30
169.34
169.88

July
August
September

40.1
40.1
40.1

3.3
3.3
3.2

3.9
3.9
3.9

395
390
387

1.1
1.4
1.2

1.9
2.0
1.9

0.804
0.762
0.793

155
155
159

170.09
170.20
170.57

October
November
December

40.1
40.1
40.2

3.2
3.3
3.2

4.1
4.0
3.9

395
409
407

1.2
1.3
1.2

2.0
2.0
1.9

0.811
0.771
0.755

0)167
158
159

170.50
170.81
171.34

January
February
March

40.3
40.1
39.8

3.2
3.0
3.1

3.9
3.9
3.6

404
375
440

1.3
1.3
1.5

1.9
1.9
1.9

0.705
0.696
0.660

154
151
145

172.63
172.29
171.28

April
May
June

39.8
39.3
39.1

3.0
2.6
2.4

3.0
3.0
3.3

569
635
617

2.9
3.5
2.9

1.5
1.4
1.4

0,504
0.420
0.438

122
112
115

170.27
169.20
168.12

July
August
September

39.0
39.4
39.6

2.5
2.7
2.7

3.4
3.6
3.8

536
502
501

1.7
1.9
1.5

1.3
1.3
1.3

0.438
0.439
0.466

118
117
122

167.12
168.28
169.12

October
November
December

39.7
39.9
40.1

2.8
2.9
3.1

3.9
3.6
3.6

439
399
394

1.4
1.2
1.1

1.3
1.4
1.5

0.475
0.502
0.497

127
134
130

169.78
170.22
171.22

40.4
r39.9
p40.0

3.1
2.9
p2.9

3.5
3.6
p3.5

415
402
p421

rl.3
1.4
pi.4

1.5
1.5
pi. 4

0.486
0.495
pO.483

128
129
pl26

E>H73.03
H71.74
P172.18

1980

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

i

October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1979: Series 1 (40.9) in April 1978, series 21 (3.8) in April 1978, series 2 (4.4)
in December 1978, series 5 (323) in October 1978, series 3 (0.8) in September 1978, and series 60 (0.827) in October 1978.
2
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.


APRIL 1981


61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Employment—Continued

Timing Class . .

Year
and
month

Comprehensive Unemployment

U, C,C

C, C, C

L, C, U

U, Lg, U

42. Persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment
survey

40. Employees
in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction)

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to total
population of
working age

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

37. Number of
persons unemployed, labor
force survey

43. Unemployment rate,
total

45. Average
weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs *

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Weeks)

(Percent)

L, Lg, U

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

1979
January
February
March

92,781
93,088
93,318

88,858
89,109
89,455

26,363
26,377
26,537

59.13
59.27
59.31

5,958
5,993
5,956

5.8
5.9
5.8

3.0
3.0
3.0

11.2
11.3
11.7

1.2
1.2
1.3

April
May
June

93,061
93,364
93,562

89,386
89,708
89,909

26,473
26,522
26,557

59.07
59.16
59.24

5,918
5,776
0)5,718

5.8
5.6
5.6

2.9
2.8
2.8

11.0
10.9
10.5

1.2
1.2
1.1

July
August
September

93,995
93,706
94,189

90,054
90,222
90,283

26,582
26,528
26,554

59.43
59.21
0)59.43

5,738
6,057
5,971

H>5.6
5.9
5.8

0)2.8
2.9
2.9

0)10.3
10.6
10.6

0)1.0
1.1
1.1

October
November
December

94,153
94,123
94,458

90,441
90,552
90,678

26,554
26,504
26,590

59.24
59.21
59.30

6,132
6,104
6,272

5.9
5.9
6.0

3.0
3.1
3.1

10.5
10.6
10.6

1.1
1.2
1.2

January
February
March

94,421
94,488
94,291

91,031
91,186
91,144

0)26,715
26,623
26,476

59.18
59.18
58.99

6,500
6,454
6,543

6.2
6.2
6.3

3.2
3.2
3.4

10.6
10.7
11.0

1.3
1.2
1.3

April
May
June

93,963
93,764
93,548

90,951
90,468
90,047

26,121
25,745
25,422

58.68
58.54
58.26

7,202
7,944
7,811

6.9
7.6
7.5

3.7
4.2
4.6

11.2
10.6
11.7

1.5
1.6
1.7

July
August
September

93,732
93,793
93,781

89,867
90,142
90,384

25,163
25,312
25,476

58.30
58.23
58.27

8,021
7,942
7,800

7.6
7.6
7.4

4.4
4.3
4.3

11.8
12.5
13.0

1.8
2.0
2.2

October
November
December

93,887
93,999
93,888

90,710
90,961
91,125

25,636
25,811
25,892

58.21
58.22
58.11

7,961
7,946
7,785

7.6
7.5
7.4

4.1
3.8
3.5

13.3
13.6
13.5

2.2
2.2
2.3

94,294
94,646
0)95,136

r91,481
r91,644
H>P91,645

r26,041
r25,987
p25,978

58.30
58.38
58.61

7,847
7,754
7,764

7.4
7.3
7.3

3.4
3.2
p3.3

14.4
14.4
14.0

2.2
2.1
2.1

1980

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.




62

APRIL 1981

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q [

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

PRODUCTION AND INCOME

Industrial Production

Comprehensive Output and Income

C Cr C

50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars

c, c, c

52. Constant
(1972) dollars

51. Personal
income, less
transfer payments, in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, mfg.,
and construction in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Persona income

223. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c, c, c

C, C, C

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, C, C

47. Index of
industrial
production,
total

(1967 = 100)

C, C, C

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures
(1967 = 100)

C, L, L

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures
(1967 = 100)

C, C,C

49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1979
January
February
March

1,479'.9

1,845.9
1,863.0
1,884.8

1,184.0
1,185.1
1,190.7

1,033.9
1,035.8
1,040.8

251.1
251.3
E>252.6

152,0
152.5
0)153.5

147.0
147.2
H>148.6

161.6
162.9
164.0

681! 8

April
May
June

1,473.4

1,891.9
1,903.4
1,923.5

1,188.4
1,188.1
1,193.2

1,037.1
1,037.5
1,043.3

251.4
249.5
248.2

151.1
152.7
153.0

144.5
147.6
147.6

162.6
163.6
163.7

669.1

July
August
September

1,488^2

1,954.0
1,974.8
1,987.9

1,202.5
1,206.4
1,203.3

1,045.2
1,048.4
1,046.3

247.3
245.1
244.4

153.0
152.1
152.7

147.2
144.4
145.9

164.8
165.2
165.4

673^6

October
November
December

1,49Q.*6

2,011.3
2,032.7
2,051.8

1,205,8
1,209.9
1,211,9

1,049.0
1,053.6
1,055.3

242.9
241.5
241.7

152.7
152.3
152.5

146.0
145.2
144.8

164.8
165.0
165.3

673*.3

January
February
March

1.50K9

2,077.2
2,086.4
2,101.0

1,216.2
1,207.4
1,199.2

1,056.5
1,050.9
1,044.0

240.6
239.2
236.3

152.7
152.6
152.1

144.7
144.1
143.4

E>166.0
165.9
164.7

682 .'i

April
May
June

1,463.3

2,102.1
2,114.1
2,127.1

1,194.4
1,195.1
1,195.0

1,037.6
1,036.0
1,035.1

231.9
228.2
225.1

148,3
144.0
141.5

138.4
133.3
129.9

161.6
158.0
155,3

658 ."i

July
August
September

1,47K9

2,161.2
2,179.4
2,205.7

1,206.7
1,207.4
1,208.6

1,033.8
1,036.2
1,036.9

224.2
226.2
227.7

140.4
141,8
144,1

128.3
129.4
131.7

154.7
156.9
160.3

657^5

October
November
December

1,485.6

2,234.3
2,257.6
2,276.6

1,216.3
1,221.0
1,222.7

1,045.5
1,051.6
1,054.2

229.4
231.5
232.1

146.9
149,4
H51.0

135.8
139.3
H40.6

161.8
163,3
r!65.0

662*9

E>pl ,509.2

r2,301.0
r2,317.3
E>P2,334.9

rl,228.5
r l ,230.6
0>pl,231.5

rl,058.5
rl,061.5
[H>pl,062.6

r234.9
232.5
p232.2

rl51,7
rl51.1
pl51.7

r!41.3
H40.1
pl41.3

r!65.3
r!65.2
pl65.0

DP683.6

1980

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.

 A P R I L 1 9 8 1


63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

£ Q

Minor Economic
Process

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

Capacity Utilization

Timing Class

Year
and
month

J J

PRODUCTION AND INCOME-Continued

L, C, U

83. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(BEA)
(Percent)

82. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(FRB)
(Percent)

Orders and Deliveries

L, C, U

84. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
materials

(Percent)

L, L, L

L, L, L

Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)

L, L,L

L, L, L

L, Lg, U

L, L, L

32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries ©

7. Constant
(1972) dollars

8. New orders
for consumer
goods and
materials in
1972 dollars

25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

1979
January
February
March

H>86!9

H>88."4

78.68
80.43
81.65

44.23
44.76
E>45.06

E)39.00
38.52
38.73

E>7.10
5.89

234.72
241.82
247.71

69
77
E>78

8^9

8^5

75.93
77.04
76.03

41.44
41.73
40.90

36.81
36.90
36.39

4.73
1.52
3.23

252.43
253.96
257.19

76
76
70

85*.3

87^2

74.58
74.76
77.65

39.82
39.81
40.82

35.92
35.39
35.86

0.71
0.40
3.45

257.90
258.30
261.74

60
55
51

84*.4

86*.3

76.52
75.90
77.20

39.63
39.06
39.49

35.55
34.30
34.15

0.98
2.15
3.01

262.72
264.87
267.88

50
47
49

83.4

85!5

81.47
81.02
77.55

40.69
40.05
38.35

36.16
36.09
33.62

3.52
1.86
1.62

271.40
273.26
274.88

48
42
45

77*.9

7^7

72.42
67.33
66.45

35.69
33.07
32.32

30.41
28.99
29.03

0.21
-2.12
-2.60

275.10
272,98
270.38

4Q
32
28

75^7

74!9

74.23
72.23
78,96

35.77
34.58
37.58

31.67
31.62
33.09

1.68
0.17
2.39

272.06
272.23
274.62

32
34
39

79.*2

80.0

80.69
81.05
82.65

37.96
r37.94
38.39

34.93
r33.97
34.00

1.19
1.31
2.62

275.81
277.12
279.75

44
45
47

p79^7

p81.5

81.34
r82.21
[H>p83.25

37.74
r38.01
p38.31

32.62
r34.38
p33.67

1.08
r l .13
p i . 57

280.82
r281.95
0>p283.53

46
50
52

E>*84

April
May
June

*83

July
August
September
October
November
December

"82

*81

5.91

1980
January
February
March

*80

April
May
June

*76

July
August
September

?

October
November
December

76

p78

1981
January
February
March

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.




64

APRIL 1981

ItO

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q |

Minor Economic
Process
C, C, C

C, C, C

Manufacturing and trade sales
56. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)
2

1979

( )

57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)

C, L, C

75. Index of industrial production, consumer
goods

(1967=100)

C, L, U

U, L, U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Timing Class

Year
and
month

• •
l i l

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued

59. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)

I C, C

L, L, L

L, L, L

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

58. Index of
consumer,
sentiment1 ®

12. Index of
net business
formation *

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1st Q
1966 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

2

( )

January
February
March

274,091
274,844
283,741

160,037
158,967
0)162,650

151.3
151.8
[H>153.4

71,402
71,702
72,590

45,421
45,152
45,312

69.*2

72.1
73.9
68.4

131.3
132.1
132.5

42,410
42,302
42,761

April
May
June

276,406
286,413
283,772

157,009
160,851
158,198

149.3
152.2
152.1

72,610
73,198
73,496

44,960
44,990
44,787

62l9

66.0
68.1
65.8

130.9
130.5
130.9

43,034
43,895
43,044

July
August
September

289,994
293,167
296,761

159,890
160,066
160,125

151.2
148.7
150.0

74,211
75,623
76,815

44,922
45,501
[H>45,778

65^0

60.4
64.5
66.7

131.8
130.3
132.5

44,655
42,911
44,687

October
November
December

298,452
298,949
302,117

159,305
157,932
158,464

150.0
149.1
148.6

76,428
76,946
77,475

45,144
45,077
45,017

6^2

62.1
63.3
61.0

131.9
131.4
133.9

46,478
44,811
43,579

312,458
r315,394
305,165

161,386
158,817
154,642

147.9
148.4
148.6

79,561
78,899
77,603

45,751
44,931
43,524

71'.6

67.0
66.9
56.5

131.0
129.8
125.8

44,447
44,583
42,615

April
May
June

294,998
292,478
294,203

149,415
147,355
147,687

145.3
142.4
142.1

76,404
75,975
77,843

42,660
42,279
43,007

5CK7

52.7
51.7
58.7

120.5
117.8
114.8

42,461
41,974
39,746

July
August
September

304,154
308,019
318,321

150,468
149,586
153,574

142.0
142.7
144.3

79,491
79,829
80,620

43,700
43,433
43,251

58! 7

62.3
67.3
73.7

115.3
117.7
120.6

44,058
43,266
46,488

October
November
December

325,838
328,983
r339,357

155,507
155,676
156,123

146.6
148.0
147.7

81,552
82,764
83,443

43,518
43,907
43,964

66.1

75.0
76.7
64.5

119.6
119.2
H21.3

47,225
46,888
H>48,297

|H>r345,578
p345,192
(NA)

rl57,415
pl56,585
(NA)

H47.2
r!46.9
P147.7

r85,463
r86,851
H>p86,943

r44,768
r45,188
p45,002

B)p75'.3

71.4
66.9
66.5

el!8.2
(NA)

p46,022
(NA)

1980
January
February
March

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
Octbber
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
Series 58 reached its high value (89.1) in 2d quarter 1977; series 12 reached its high value (134.8) in October 1978.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.


APRIL 1981


ItCII

65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q g

Minor Economic
Process

Business Investment Commitments

Timing Class

L, L, L

L, L, L

Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment
Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

10. Current
dollars

20. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

L, L, L

Value of manufacturers' new orders,
capital goods industries, nondefense
24. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, C, U

9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings1

27. Constant
(1972) dollars

Square feet of
floor space

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

Square meters of
floor space2
(Millions)

U, Lg, U

C Lg, Lg

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

1979
26.16
25.48
H>28.10

15.40
15.17
B> 16.99

21.23
22.48
23.60

12.72
13.56
[H>14.60

85.78
(H)104.38
94.15

7.97
H>9.70
8.75

21'.61

April
May
June

25.36
22.67
24.66

14.76
13.14
14.32

20.60
21.13
21,70

12.24
12.34
12.78

96.06
89.32
86.61

8.92
8.30
8.05

21.20

July
August
September

25.82
23.83
24.52

14.55
13.38
13.69

21.23
21.08
21.58

12.20
12.00
12.21

92.79
84.75
91.05

8.62
7.87
8.46

22 '.69

October
November
December

24.14
27.42
27.50

13.52
15.49
15.34

21.07
21.75
22,28

12.01
12.73
12.81

95.23
81.97
84.18

8.85
7.62
7.82

23^28

27.30
23.71
r26.13

14.98
13.07
r!4.01

23.86
21.48
22.59

13,34
12.02
12.35

94.57
84.27
80.55

8.79
7.83
7.48

H> 29^50

73.39
67.09
71.39

6.82
6.23
6.63

25^86

January
February
March

67^63

69^95

73145

76^66

1980
January
February
March

84.09

April
May
June

24.20
21.18
22.92

12.97
11.52
12.60

22.16
19.59
19.95

12,02
10.79
11.26

July
August
September

24.86
23.96
23.87

13.71
12.58
12.89

21.61
19.37
20.86

12.24
10.50
11.53

71.40
68.63
68.47

6.63
6.38
6.36

24.*29

October
November
December

23.82
27.47
26.60

H2.37
rl4.48
H3.88

20.62
21.85
21.67

10.92
11.95
11.67

72.12
86.15
97.45

6.70
8.00
9.05

p25.*89

27.39
r23.74
p27.81

r!4.17
rl2.34
p!4.05

H)24.51
r20.59
p23.56

12.89
rlO.95
pl2.17

78.70
84.41
90.00

7.31
7.84
8.36

(NA)

.......

87^94

89.72

B>p91.'85

1981
January
Fefcftfary
Mtrcft

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs af these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
x
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.




66

APRIL 1981

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS . . . . . . .

Q | FIXED

Minor Economic
Process

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

Timing Class

Year
and
month

CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued

C Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, U

61. Business
expenditures
for new plant
and equipment,
total

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business
construction
expenditures

76. Index of
industrial production, business
equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1967 = 100)

C Lg, C

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, C

Nonresidentia fixed investment ir 1972 dollars
86. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

28. New
private housing
units started,
total1

L, L, L

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits1

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

89. Residential
fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1979
January
February
March

255*.55

256.93
256.86
268.78

168.2
169.3
171.0

161.4

45*8

115*6

1,672
1,444
1,817

119.1
120.4
136.7

60.8

April
May
June

265*. 24

261.20
268.02
265.92

168.7
171.2
171.2

161! 3

48.'6

113.2

1,760
1,867
1,891

125.0
133.1
132.4

59* *

July
August
September

273.'15

274.41
278.61
280.10

171.3
171.6
173.4

E>166*4

49.4

H>H7.'6

1,758
1,717
1,844

126.3
131.0
136.9

58*6

October
November
December

284*30

285.29
279.46
287.54

172.3
172.6
174.1

164* 1

i>50."7

113*5

1,697
1,502
1,563

119.4
104.0
100.7

58*1

January
February
March

291*89

297.92
303.20
300.05

174.9
176.0
176.1

165.0

50." 5

114*5

1,389
1,273
1,040

102.7
94.3
78.2

54*2

April
May
June

294.36

291.99
293.49
292.17

174.2
171.9
169.8

156* 1

48.' 7

107*4

1,044
938
1,184

63.7
66.6
87.1

43*1

July
August
September

296.23

293.84
285.47
303.11

170.1
170.3
170.5

155.5

46.'8

108*8

1,277
1,411
1,482

99.8
109.9
126.3

44.7

October
November
December

H>299!58

303.52
304.58
306.74

172.3
174.5

157.0

47.8

109.3

107.7
109.5
99.8

50.6

H77.8

1,519
1,550
1,535

H)r318.05
p310.70
(NA)

H78.5
r!78.0
G>pl79.5

pl6l'.7

p49.1

pll'2.6

rl,660
r l ,214
pi ,284

99.2
94.1
91.8

p50*.7

1980

1981
January
February
March

a3T0.10

April
May
June

a317.29

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
1
The following series reached their high values before 1979: Series 28 (2,197) in April 1978, series 29 (160.2) in June 1978, and series
89 (63.3) in 2d quarter 1978.


APRIL 1981


67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

M

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Inventories on Hand and on Order

Inventory Investment

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, L, L

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars

36. Change in inventories on
hand and on order, 1972 dollars

31. Change
in book value
of mfg. and
trade inventories, total

38. Change
in stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Smoothed
data1 2

Monthly
data x
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Bil dol.)

(3)

1979

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars

70. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Bil dol.)

(Bil dol.)

(3)

(3)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished
goods, book
value

77. Ratio,
constantdollar inventories to
sales, mfg.
and trade

78. Stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.

(Bil dol.)

(Ratio)

(Bil dol.)

L, Lg, Lg

(3)

32.51
18.43
16.04

20.32
23.34
22.92

56.8

15.4

47.2
39.8

[H>5.09
3.70
2.98

385.38
389.31
392.63

259.85
260.51
261.52

64.70
65.51
65.88

1.62
1.64
1.61

173.60
177.30
180.29

E>18*.4

25.91
-3.61
17.57

21.23
16.45
13.04

68.1
43.7
57.3

4.33
0.52
2.59

398.31
401.94
406.72

262.97
263.77
265.08

67.08
67.22
68.08

1.67
1.64
1.68

184.62
185.14
187.73

16.84
0.37
-15.23

11.78
10.93
6.13

H>82.3
42.6
16.0

1.24
2.21
1.74

413.58
417.13
418.46

267.21
H>267.56
266.29

68.62
68.95
69.87

1.67
1.67
1.66

188.97
191.18
192.93

-0.7

-1.00
-13.30
-18.31

-2.31
-7.57
-10.36

51.0
38.9
10.1

2.24
2.52
1.51

422.71
425.95
426.80

267.02
266.63
265.44

69.75
69.94
70.53

1.68
1.69
1.68

195.16
197.69
199.20

-0.9

-17.33
-15.35
4.90

-13.59
-16.66
-13.13

55.5
44.8
47.5

2.48
2.54
1.21

431.42
H39.70
439.11

264.77
264.14
264.60

71.78
72.76
73.94

1.64
1.66
1.71

201.67
204.22
[H>205.43

-4.54
-27.35
-24.61

-7.13
-7.00
-13.92

72.7
7.6
14.8

-0.36
-2.85
-2.32

445.17
445.80
447.03

266.02
265.24
264.73

75.76
76.21
76.61

1.78
[H)1.80
1.79

205.07
202.22
199.90

-3.30
-6.23
-1.56

-18.63
-14.90
-7.54

29.7
29.3
31.4

1.37
-1.50
0.87

449.51
451.95
454.57

264.79
264.39
264.24

77.00

E)77.19
76.76

1.76
1.77
1.72

201.27
199.76
200.63

7.45

-1.90
r0.26
r-1.05

23.6
17.4
-14.6

1.44
0.85
1.35

456.53
457.99
r461.72

264.33
264.10
262.97

76.43
76.81
75.58

1.70
1.70
1.68

202.07
202.92
204.27

r-5.52
p-7.34
(NA)

r40.7
p58.6
(NA)

0.11
p0.89
(NA)

r465.ll
[H>p469.99
(NA)

r263.17
p262.90
(NA)

75.38
76.62
(NA)

rl.67
pi. 68
(NA)

204.38
P205.26
(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June

INVENTORIES ANC INVENTORY INVESTMENT

July
August
September
October
November
December
1980
January
February
March
April
May
June

V.3

July
August
September

-5.0

October
November
December

-7.2

r-3.96
r-11.70

1981
January
February
March

p-5'.7

r-9.23
pi. 78
(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
Series 36 (monthly) reached its high value (37.30) in March 1978; series 36 (smoothed) reached its high value (26.38) in May 1978.
2
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
J
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




APRIL 1981

ItO

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

£ ^

Minor Economic
Process

L, L, L

U, L, L

92. Change in sensitive crude
materials prices
Year
and
month

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

Timing Class

Smoothed
data2

Monthly
data

(Percent)

(Percent)

1979

Revised

4

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrials ®

I L, L

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ©

(1967 = 100)

(1941-43 = 10)

Profits and Profit Margins

L, L, L

L, L, L

Corporate pro ts after taxes
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

18. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

UC L

L, C, L

Corporate profits after taxes
with IVA and CCAdjJ
79. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

80. Constant
(1972) dollars3
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

22. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) to total
corporate
domestic income

(Percent)

Revised*

January
February
March

0.62
3.07
2.98

1.11
1.23
1.87

258.3
273.5
288.5

99.71
98.23
100.11

164*.6

IOI'O

H>113.*4

70.'1

H>li.*9

April
May
June

0.88
2.67
3.25

2.27
2.24
2.22

294.5
293.8
293.9

102.07
99.73
101.73

164.6

98.9

110.2

66*9

11*5

July
August
September

1.18
0.38
3.39

2.32
1.98
1.63

297.3
298.1
297.3

102.71
107.36
108.60

173^6

101.8

111'.!

65^7

ii'4

October
November
December

2.79
1.98
2.11

1.92
2.45
2.51

307.7
304.0
309.6

104.47
103.66
107.78

168 *. 2

96'.7

102^2

59*4

li'i

January
February
March
. .

2.99
2.43
—11 .99
CC.

2.33
2.44

316.2
G>322.5
316.9

110.87
115.34

[H)182'. 9

[H>102'6

106.0

60.'1

ii.*5

April
May . .
June

0.26
-0.09
0.02

0.94
0.07
-0.14

301.9
278.5
267.5

102.97
107.69
114.55

146.5

80.'3

97*8

54*1

9*4

July
August
September

2.26
2.35
1.98

0.40
1.14
1.87

277.6
292.1
298.3

119.83
123.50
126.51

159.1

85*5

99*4

54.6

1616

October
November
December

2.60
2.45
-0.66

2.25
2.33
1.90

300.8
304.7
298.4

130.22
E>135.65
133.48

H64.3

r86.6

r98.1

r52.2

rlO.3

-0.61
[H>12.87
-0.50

0.93
2.13

291.6
284.2
289.8

132.97
128.40
133.19

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1980

11 . Qfi
I70

1 f)4 fiQ
1U^.D 3

1981
January
February
March

E>3.89

April
May
June

5

293.6

6

134.80

July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
1

2
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights
3
1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Series 80 reached its high value (71.0) in 3d quarter 1977. "See "New Features and
5
6
Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Average for April 7, 14, and 21.
Average for April 1, 8, 15, and 22.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItUI

69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

B B

Minor Economic
Process

U, L, L

81. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income12
(Percent)

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins-Continued

Timing Class

Year
and
month

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

L, L, L

L, L, L

L, L, L

15. Profits (after
taxes) per dollar
of sales, all
manufacturing
corporations

26. Ratio, price
to unit labor
cost, nonfarm
business sector2

(Cents)

(1977 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

0>5*.9

97.6

247.4

147^9

115^4

1.052

170.2
171.6
171.7

74.'l

L, L, L

Net cash flow, corporate
34. Current
dollars

35. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of
unit labor cost,
private business
sector

68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial
corporations

(1977 = 100)

(Dollars)

Lg, Lg, Lg

62. Index of
labor cost per
unit of output,
manufacturing

(1967 = 100)

Lg, Lg, Lg

64. Compensation of employees as a percent
of national
income

(Percent)

1979
January
February
March
April
May
June

6*.9

5*.6

97.0

252!o

14A4

118.5

1.079

176.4
173.9
174.6

74^5

July
August
September

6.3

5.*8

96.6

266.1

152.5

121 !4

1.104

175.7
177.3
177.7

74^3

October
November
December

5*.7

5^4

96.*2

262^9

148^6

124*2

1.135

178.9
180.0
181.7

74.*7

January
February
March

5^5

5!6

96.5

E>280.'7

H>155!2

127^0

1.158

182.9
184.9
186.8

74^6

April
May
June

5.5

4.4

95.*8

246.'1

132." 2

131.' 3

1.193

190.5
194.8
198.6

H>75*.8

July
August
September

s'.A

4*.6

96.*5

262.9

i38!e

133.9

1.203

200.6
201.4
200.6

7^3

October
November
December

5.'i

4.9

96.*4

r272.0

r!41.1

r!37.0

0)1.230

199.9
200.0
r200.3

75*4

(NA)

(NA)

p96^6

(NA)

(NA)

E>pl39.*5

(NA)

1980

1981
January
February
March

r202.8
205.0

(NA)

E>p205.1

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
X
1VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
Series 81 reached its high value (8.8) in 3d quarter 1977; series 26 reached its high value (100.7) in 3d quarter 1975.




70

APRIL 1981

ItCIt

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^ H

Minor Economic
Process

MONEY AND CREDIT

Money

Timing Class

L, L, L

85. Change in
money supply
(Ml-B)
Year
and
month

L, L, L

L, C, U

102. Change
in money
supply (M2)l

(Percent)

(Percent)

L, L, L

104. Change in total liquid assets
Monthly
data

Smoothed
data2

(Percent)

Credit Flows

Velocity of Money

(Percent)

105. Money
supply (Ml-B)
in 1972
dollars1

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

106. Money
supply (M2)
in 1972
dollars1

(Bil. dol.)

C C, C

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
(Ml-B)

(Ratio)

C, Lg, C

L, L, L

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
(M2)

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ratio)

1979

6.469

1.312
1.318
1.321

100.76
82.08
88.07

6.397

1.313
1.313
1.312

75.10
91.80
94.58

848.3
847.0
843.4

6.430

1.322
1.324
1.323

97.24
83.89
87.31

212.7
211.1
210.0

838.5
833.0
828.1

6.487

1.332
1.340
1.345

E>103.58
77.04
51.55

0.51
0.67
0.80

207.8
206.8
204.1

821.4
817.8
810.6

6.587

1.353
1.348
1.351

87.48
67.45
69.22

0.43
0.75
0.58

0.76
0.68
0.61

199.7
197.9
198.6

801.4
801.4
805.7

6.612

1.356
1.352
1.340

50.04
16.75
8.11

1.57
1.24
0.73

0.69
1.08
1.04

0.63
0.73
0.86

200.5
202.6
203.2

817.7
821.5
818.9

6.559

1.340
1.335
1.341

43.40
65.93
75.84

0.98
0.73
-0.75

0.74
0.86
0.16

0.55
1.18
rl.04

0.91
0.91
r0.92

203.1
202.3
198.9

816.5
814.6

6.612

808.0

1.349
1.351
1.360

95.80
77.17
r72.ll

January
February
March

rl.00
r0.31
p i . 03

r0.48
0.64
pi.29

0.95
re0.74
e0.68

0.99
re0.98
e0.85

rl99.4
198.1
p!99.0

r806.0
r803.5
p809.0

rl.369

r53.94
p67.37
(NA)

April
May
June

3

0.19
0.89

0.41
0.46
0.91

0.60
0.81
1.18

1.02
0.92
0.85

219.7
217.9
217.8

858.1
853.3
853.2

1.57
-0.14
1.30

1.02
0.58
1.13

1.14
1.06
1.43

0.95
1.09

853.8
850.0

H>1.17

219.1
216.6
217.2

July
August
September

0.94
0.66
0.60

0.85
0.91
0.74

0.74
0.89

E>1.43

1.14
1.05
1.02

216.7
215.9
214.6

October
November
December

0.16
0.37
0.62

0.49
0.44
0.59

0.44
0.27
0.69

0.97
0.82
0.59

0.36
0.80
0.00

0.57
0.84
0.45

0.66
1.04
0.70

-1.30
-0.05
1.35

-0.27
0.86
1.53

July
August
September

1.07
E>1.82
1.32

October
November
December

January
February
March

0.06

April
May
June

850.8

1980
January
February
March
April
May
June

1981

[H)p6.758

K>rl.369
pi.362

1.57

July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1979: Series 102 (1.64) in June 1975, series 105 (224.3) in January 1978, and series 106 (868.6) in January 1978. 2Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the
3
span.
Average for weeks ended April 1, 8, and 15.


APRIL 1981


ItCII

71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

I M

Minor Economic
Process

Credit Flows—Continued

Timing Class

L, L, L

112. Net change
in bank loans
to businesses
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

113. Net
change in
consumer installment
credit l
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Credit Difficulties

L, L, L

110. Total
private
borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

L, L, L

14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures l@

(Mil. dol.)

Bank Reserves

L, L, L

39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, consumer installment loans

(Percent)

Interest Rates

L, U, U

L, Lg, U

93. Free
reserves ©

94. Member
bank borrowing from the
Federal
Reserve @

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

L, Lg, Lg

119. Federal
funds rate @

(Percent)

C Lg, Lg

114. Treasury
bill rate @

(Percent)

1979
January
February
March

39.31
33.07
5.76

50.57
50.64
40.20

347,904

182.22
177.09
187.76

E>2.12
2.31
2.33

-692
-764
-742

994
973
999

10.07
10.06
10.09

9.35
9.27
9.46

April
May
June

39.62
31.99
23.23

45.71
37.99
31.33

355,864

242.76
200.45
273.17

2.43
2.37
2.45

-899
-1,490
-1,175

897
1,777
1,396

10.01
10.24
10.29

9.49
9.58
9.05

July
August
September

40.55
30.54
43.36

33.79
32.77
48.10

0)414,400

212.20
287.44
186.20

2.45
2.47
2.59

-989
-904
-1,339

1,179
1,097
1,344

10.47
10.94
11.43

9.26
9.45
10.18

October
November
December

3.72
-21.10
4.55

36.40
32.33
24.40

309,748

395.75
184.31
138.02

2.45
2.50
2.64

-1,750
-1,751
-1,079

2,022
1,906
1,473

13.77
13.18
13.78

11.47
11.87
12.07

[H}55.48
35.83
-1.52

32.72
28.84
7.85

347,304

243.15
190.79
274.24

2.37
2.32
2.53

-999
-1,465
E>-2,638

1,241
1,655
[H>2,824

13.82
14.13
17.19

12.04
12.81
15.53

2.47
-38.96
2.14

-20.05
-32.12
-24.54

165,712

428.15
381.15
436.68

2.53
2.64
2.74

-2,261
-835
-169

2,455
1,018
380

17.61
10.98
9.47

14.00
9.15
7.00

July
August
September

13.06
30.23
29.86

-14.39
5.87
12.66

282,744

445.69
345.41
1,002.94

2.77
2.94
2.70

-111
-357
-1,055

395
659
1,311

9.03
9.61
10.87

8.13
9.26
10.32

October
November
December

29.81
35.66
r41.15

8.42
10.07
19.43

p340,720

359.24
239.34
288.30

2.53
2.66
2.57

p-1,018
p-1,201
p-1,587

pi,335
p2,156
pi,617

12.81
15.85
18.90

11.58
13.89
0)15.66

r0.82
r-12.64
p-47.10

10.43
23.95
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

rp-916
p-1,076
p-624

pi ,405
pi,278
pi,004

H>19.08
15.93
14.70

14.72
14.90
13.48

3

3

1980
January
February
March
April
May
June

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June

2

-2.68

-l,001

1,159

3

15.31

A

13.50

July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 34.
Series 113 reached its high value (51.37) in June 1978; series 14 reached its high value (96.99) in September 1977.
2
Average for weeks ended April 1, 8, and 15.
3
Average for weeks ended April 1, 8, 15, and 22.
4
Average for weeks ended April 2, 9, 16, and 23.




72

APRIL 1981

ItCIt

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

R f l j MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Outstanding Debt

Interest Rates—Continued

Timing Class

Lg, Lg, Lg

C Lg, Lg

U, Lg, Lg

116. Corporate
bond yields ©

115. Treasury
bond yields ©

117. Municipal
bond yields @

Year
and
month
(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

118. Secondary
market yields
on FHA
mortgages ©

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business loans

(Percent)

(Percent)

®

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks ®

66. Consumer
installment
credit

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large
commercial
banks
(Mil. dol.)

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
to personal
income

(Percent)

1979
January
February
March

9.47
9.52
9.65

8.43
8.43
8.45

6.47
6.31
6.33

10.24
10.24
10.26

12*.27

11.75
11.75
11.75

269,107
273,327
276,677

134,984
137,740
138,220

14.58
14.67
14.68

April
May
June

9.69

9.82
9.51

8.44
8.55
8.32

6.29
6.25
6.13

(NA)
10.61
10.49

12^34

11.75
11.75
11.65

280,486
283,652
286,263

141,522
144,188
146,124

14.83
[0)14.90
14.88

July
August
September

9.47
9.57
9.87

8.35
8.42
8.68

6.13
6.20
6.52

10.46
10.58
11.37

12!31

11.54
11.91
12.90

289,079
291,810
295,818

149,503
152,048
155,661

14.79
14.78
14,88

October
November
December

11.17
11.52
11.30

9.44
9.80
9.58

7.08
7.30
7.22

(NA)
12.41
12.24

15^81

14.39
15.55
15.30

298,851
301,545
303,578

155,971
154,213
154,592

14.86
14.83
14.80

January
February
March

11.65
13.23
14.08

10.03
11.55
11.87

7.35
8.16
9.17

12.60
(NA)
14.63

15.67

15.25
15.63
18.31

306,305
308,708

10)309,362

159,215
162,201
162,074

14.75
14.80
14.72

April
May
June

13.36
11.61
11.12

10.83
9.82
9.40

8.63
7.59
7.63

13.45
11.99
11.85

17.75

19.77
16.57
12.63

307,691
305,014
302,969

162,280
159,033
159,211

14.64
14.43
14.24

July
August
September

11.48
12.31
12.74

9.83
10.53
10.94

8.13
8.67
8.94

12.39
13.54
14.26

11.56

11.48
11.12
12.23

301,770
302,259
303,314

160,299
162,818
165,306

13.96
13.87
13.75

October
November
December

13.17
14.10
14.38

11.20
11.83
11.89

9.11
9.56
0)10.20

14.38
14.47
14.08

15! 71

13.79
16.06

0)20.35

304,016
304,855
306,474

167,790
170,762
rl74,191

13.61
13.50
13.46

14.01

11.65
[0)12.23
12.15

9.68
10.10
10.16

14.23
14.79
[0)15.04

H>19*91

20.16
19.43
18.05

307,343
309,339
(NA)

E>rl74,259
173,206
p!69,281

r!3.36
pl3.35
(NA)

1980

1981
January
February
March

10)14.60
14.49

April
May
June

M2.53

2

10.54

3

17.02

"169,058

July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
1

Average
Average
3
Average
''Average
2

for
for
for
for

weeks
weeks
April
weeks

ended April 3, 10, 17, and 24.
ended April 2, 9, 16, and 23.
1 through 24.
ended April 1, 8, and 15.


APRIL 1981


73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Q |
950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104,
106)

Year
and
month

1-month
span

6-month
span

January
February
March

58.3
41.7
66.7

33.3
41.7
41.7

April
May
June

25.0
45.8
41.7

July
August
September
October
November
December

DIFFUSION INDEXES

952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 70, 72, 91,
95, 109)

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

961. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (20
industries)

962. Initial claims for
State unemployment
insurance, week including the 12th
(51 areas)

963. Number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls
(172 industries)

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

25.0
75.0
100.0

75.0
87.5
50.0

83.3
75.0
75.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

52.5
37.5
67.5

15.0
10.0
15.0

11,8
72.5
68.6

46.1
27.5
25.5

66.9
66.3
62.2

74.7
71.8
64.0

41.7
33.3
29.2

12.5
75.0
75.0

75.0
50.0
25.0

91.7
75.0
83.3

83.3
100.0
100.0

0.0
92.5
32.5

17.5
30.0
17.5

7.8
66.7
66.7

56.9
49.0
31.4

49.7
58.1
57.8

60.5
53.8
51.5

45.8
29.2
54.2

37.5
33.3
45.8

100.0
50.0
50.0

100.0
50.0
75.0

66.7
83.3
75.0

100.0
83.3
75.0

75.0
45.0
72.5

32.5
25.0
90,0

37.3
54.9
86.3

21.6
23.5
r47.1

57.0
54.4
52.9

58.1
55.5
55.2

16.7
20.8
41.7

41.7
45.8
16.7

62.5
50.0
100.0

75.0
75.0
25.0

83.3
41.7
50.0

50,0
66.7
50.0

37.5
57.5
65.0

45.0
32.5
27.5

8.8
53.9
68.6

35,3
33.3
5.9

65.1
55.2
53.5

59.3
63.1
56.4

January
February
March

41.7
29.2
33.3

0.0
16.7
16.7

100.0
25.0

0.0

25.0
0.0
0.0

41.7
66.7
50.0

50.0
58.3
33.3

75.0
10.0
0.0

17.5
2.5
5,0

r23.5
60.8
46.1

2.0
2.0
9.8

60.2
54.9
45.9

45.3
36.9
32.3

April
May
June

12.5
29.2
50.0

16.7
41.7
45.8

0.0
0.0
25.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

66.7
33.3
33.3

41.7
50.0
33.3

55.0
17.5
17.5

12.5
5.0
10.0

3.9
33.3
70.6

19.6
3.9
7.8

34.6
28.8
30.2

24.7
26.7
25.6

July
August
September

83.3
75.0
91.7

75.0
100.0
100.0

25.0
75.0
100.0

50.0
100.0
100.0

41.7
33.3
33.3

33.3
33.3
50.0

32.5
87.5
65.0

35.0
70.0
85.0

62.7
84.3
13.7

58.8
21.6
96.1

36.3
62.8
62.8

32.3
46.8
68.6

October
November
December

66.7
r70.8
r50.0

83.3
72.7
2
70.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
3
100.0

50.0
50.0
66.7

50.0
50.0
75.0

70.0
72.5
75.0

r95.0
p97.5

76.5
96.1
5.9

(NA)

64.0
66.9
64.0

r78.8
r76.5
p74.1

1-month
span

6-month
span

1979

1980

X

1981
January
February
March

25.0
27.3
2
65.0
X

100.0
50.0
3
83.3

r50.0
25.0
A
50.0

r92.5
r!2.5
p65.0

86.3
(NA)

r64.5
r57.8
p51.5

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
Excludes
Excludes
Excludes
^Excludes
2

3

series
series
series
series

12
12
57
70




74

for
and
for
and

which data are not yet available.
36 for which data are not yet available.
which data are not yet available.
95 for which data are not yet available.

APRIL 1981

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Continued

Q

Year
and
month

964. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
deflated (17 manufacturing industries)

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-quarter
span

January
February
March

62.9
45.7
62.9

82.9
80.0
61.4

48

April
May
June

25.7
62.9
51.4

65.7
62.9
60.0

45

July
August
September

42.9
57.1
60.0

54.3
45.7
75.7

48

October
November
December

51.4
45.7
54.3

62.9
62.9
42.9

53

January
February
March

72.9
40.0
31.4

22.9
28.6
34.3

71

April
May
June

17.1
34.3
42.9

44.3
54.3
40.0

15

July
August
September

71.4
54.3
82.9

51.4
67.1
85.7

39

October
November
December

71.4
48.6
48.6

88.6
P91.4

4-Q moving
average

DIFFUSION 1
NDEXES-Continued

966. Index of industrial
production (24
industries)

967. Index of spot
market prices, raw
industrials ©
(13 industrial materials)

968. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks l ©

960. Net profits,
manufacturing2 ©
(about 700 companies)

1-month
span

9-month
span

96.2
96.2
88.5

94.8
35.5
85.5

18.2
32.7
57.4

i\

80.8
84.6
91. 7

80.0
16.4
90.0

90.7
88.9
75.0

*74

66.7
66.7
58.3

64.8
92.6
53.7

63.0
68.5
68.5

63

66.7
58.3
58.3

3.7
38.0
95.4

69.8
37.7
39.6

54

58.3
50.0
53.8

74.1
52.8
3.8

39.6
47.2
77.4

*56

15.4
0.0

50.0
46.2
46.2

26.4
92.5
89.6

90.6
94.3
86.8

56

39.6
75.0
r91.7

53.8
76.9
57.7

46.2
42.3
38.5

92.5
88.7
76.4

84.9
96.2
94.3

(NA)

rlOO.O
rlOO.O
p83.3

65.4
53.8
46.2

61.5
65.4
"65.4

43.4
55.7
15.1

90.6
88.7

1-month
span

6-month
span

*48

62.5
54.2
70.8

62.5
66.7
50.0

61.5
76.9
76.9

48

16.7
62.5
56.2

56.2
54.2
45.8

69.2
42.3
53.8

54

52.1
39.6
45.8

66.7
50.0
54.2

46.2
30.8
53.8

*47

64.6
52.1
58.3

58.3
58.3
45.8

*45

75.0
37.5
35.4

16.7
12.5
16.7
12.5
12.5

11.5

p45

12.5
16.7
16.7

(NA)

29.2
62.5
81.3

P 53

87.5
97.9
r66.7

(NA)

r79.2
r41.7
p52.1

1-month
span

9-month
span

(4-quarter span)

1979

3

62.5
61.5
76.9

3

3
3
3

3
3
3

1980

16.7

50.0
73.1
61.5

3
3

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June

54.3
51.4
p45.7

30.8
30.8
65.4

66.0
42.5
85.8

"84.6

July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
1
Based on 58 industries for January 1979, on 55 industries through June 1979, on 54 industries through January 1980, and on 53 industries
thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source agency.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on 12 components (excluding rosin).
**Based on average for April 7, 14, and 21.


APRIL 1981


75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q |

Year
and
quarter

971. New orders, manufacturing l @

970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment (18 industries)
a. Actual
expenditures

(1-Q span)

b. Later
anticipations

c. Early
anticipations

(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

Anticipated

Actual

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and t r a d e 1 ®

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade i ©

Actua 1

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4- } span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

72.7
90.9
72.7
86.4

81.8
81.8
77.3
75.0

70.5
59.1
86.4
72.7

83
86
86
86

82
83
88
86

73
76
78
78

79
82
84
83

84
86
88
88

86
87
92
90

86.4
68.2
68.2
88.6

52.3
63.6
63.6
47.7

63.6
50.0
68.2
77.3

85
81
73
78

80
84
80
72

78
74
70
72

78
82
80
70

87
84
82
82

85
88
84
78

77.3
59.1
50.0
54.5

54.5
45.5
36.4
40.9

81.8
59.1
81.8
77.3

74
63
60
60

66
75
57
62

62
54
57
56

66
73
59
61

73
62
68
66

72
80
63
67

(NA)

72.7

70.5
68.2

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

(NA)

Q j
Year
and
quarter

974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade ' ©

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade ' @

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

Anticipated

(NA)

74
74

DIFFUSION

(NA)

70
69

78
76

NDEXES-Continued

976. Selling prices, manu
facturing l ©

977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade l ©

978. Selling prices, retail
trade' ©

Actua 1

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

Anticipated

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

62
64
64
63

59
60
62
62

76
76
76
78

67
70
73
74

87
88
90
91

82
84
87
87

89
92
93
94

84
90
87
90

91
94
94
93

90
88
92
92

62
60
60
58

60
60
58
56

80
76
73
75

70
74
71
68

92
93
92
94

86
88
88
86

96
95
95
96

88
90
92
90

94
95
94
96

90
92
92
90

58
54
53
51

54
56
48
50

67
61
64
60

62
70
53
56

90
88
90
90

87
90
83
86

92
90
92
90

90
92
87
88

92
91
94
90

90
93
84
90

(NA)

56
54

(NA)

63
61

(NA)

88
90

(NA)

90
89

(NA)

90
90

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated b y © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
x
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun §
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.




76

APRIL 1981

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change

Diffusion index components

1981

1980

August

September

961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(Average weekly hours)

All manufacturing industries

+

Percent rising of 20 components

39.4

+

(88)

39.6

+

(65)

39.7

+

39.9

l

+

(72)

(70)

March p

February r

January

December

November

October

40.1

+

(75)

40.4

39.9

(92)

(12)

+

40.0
(65)

Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

+
+

38.9
37.4

+

38.8
38.0

o

38.7
38.0

+
0

39.3
38.0

+
+

39.4
38.6

+
+

r40.1
r38.9

Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries

+
+

40.3
39.2

+
+

40.9
39.7

o
+

40.9
40.1

+
+

41.1
40.9

+
+

41.3
41.4

+

Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical

+
+

40.1
40.8

+
+

40.4
40.9

o

40.4
40.7

+
+

40.6
41.0

o
o

40.6
41.0

Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment

+
+

39.4
40.9

+

39.5
40.6

+
+

39.9
40.8

+
+

40.0
41.4

+

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing

0
+

40.1
38.6

o
+

40.1
38.9

+

40.2
38.7

+

40.5
38.6

Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers

+

39.8
37.3

39.7
37.5

+

39.6
39.5

+

+

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

+
o

39.2
35.1

+
o

39.7
35.1

+
+

39.9
35.3

+

Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing

+
+

41.8
37.1

+

42.2
36.9

o
+

42.2
37.1

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products

+
o

41.0
42.2

+
+

41.3
42.7

+
+

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products

+
+

40.2
36.5

40.1
36.2

+
+

38.9
38.9

+
+

39.5
39.0

r41.6
r41.2

40.7
40.8

+
+

41.0
41.3

+
+

40.7
41.3

40.5
40.8

+
+

40.6
41.1

40.2
41.3

+
+

40.4
r41.9

39.7
40.4

+
+

39.9
41.2

o
+

40.5
39.0

+
o

r41.0
39.0

40.6
38.8

+

40.7
38.7

39.8
38.9

o

39.8
37.2

+
+

40.3
r39.7

40.0
35.0

+
+

40.3
35.6

+
+

r40.5
r36.0

40.2
35.7

+

42.6
36.8

+
+

43.0
37.4

+
+

r43.1
37.7

42.9
37.4

41.4
43.1

+
+

41.7
43.2

o
o

41.7
43.2

+
+

r41.8
43.4

40.4
36.5

+

40.8
36.2

+
+

40.9
36.6

+
+

r41.3
r37.1

82,654

-

81,336

o

Nondurable goods industries:

964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

-

Percent rising of 35 components

72,229

+

78,960

+

(83)

(54)

80,693

+

81,047

+

(49)

(71)

o

o
+

40.0
39.7

39.6
37.6
+

39.9
35.8
42.8
37.2

41.8
43.6

+

41.6
43.7

40.2
37.0

+
+

40.5
37.3

82,209

+

83,253

l 2

+

(54)

(49)

(46)

(51)

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

+

11,412
8,522

+
+

12,554
8,903

+
+

13,745
10,121

-

13,029
9,884

+

12,899
10,514

-

10,977
9,705

+
+

12,412
10,124

+

11,985
10,201

Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery

+

12,931
10,790

+

14,817
9,977

+

14,806
11,098

+
+

14,822
11,459

+
-

15,100
10,565

+
+

16,545
11,420

+

15,281
11,542

+

15,021
11,613

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

-

14,175
14,399

+
+

17,487
15,222

+

15,007
15,916

+
-

15,957
15,896

+
+

17,169
16,407

+

16,164
16,525

+

15,828
17,022

+
-

17,992
16,441

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary; and "NA", not available.

( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( —) = falling.

The "r" indicates revised; "p",

x

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are included in the totals and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here.
2


APRIL 1981


77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q j

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS : Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued

Diffusion index components

1980

August

September

1981

October

November

Decemberr

March p

February 1 "

January

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION l
(1967 = 100)

All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components

+
2

141.8

+

(62)

144.1

+

146.9

+

(88)

(81)

149.4

+

(98)

151.0

+

(67)

151.7

151.1

(79)

(42)

(52)

122.0
149.9

(NA)
(NA)

+

151.7

Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures

+
+

121.7
141.1

+
+

122.6
144.8

+

122.2
147.2

+
o

124.9
147.2

Clay, glass, and stone products
Primary metals

+
+

135.7
86.0

+
+

141.4
90.1

+
+

145.2
100.6

+
+

147.8
113.4

+

Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery

+
+

125.8
158.8

+
+

129.0
159.1

+
+

132.8
161.1

+
+

134.1
163.4

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

+

166.7
108.3

+
+

167.5
112.9

+
+

170.0
118.8

+
+

Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures

+

167.4
142.8

+
+

169.6
145.0

167.6
144.2

122,0
149.0

+
+

125.3
149.6

151.4
112.1

+
+

155.3
113.9

+
+

137,4
167.5

+
+

137.6
168.9

173.0
191 7

+

174.9
ion fi

+

177.6
117 1
1 1 / . 1

+
+

169.9
147.5

+
+

172.1
149.5

+
+

173.0
151.8

+

150.7
118.8

+

150.6
122.9

133.9
125.1

+

133.1
125.5

+
+

156.8
144.9

+
+

157.0
145.5

+
+

218.8
137.5

+
+

219.4
138.0

259.2
67.8

+

258.2
68.9

~

+

1C \ . 1

1 C\J. D

+

+

153.1
113.5

+

(NA)
113.7

138.3
168.1

+
+

139.2
169.0

174.6

+

175.8

1

4-

1 1 Q

+

171.9
153.0

TIC

1 1 0 . 1T

+

172.1
152.5

"3

1 |y . O

Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products

148.3
117.4

+
+

148.6
119.1

+
+

149.4
123.1

+
+

150.5
125.1

+

151.2
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

132.8
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

156.5
146.7

155.8
146.6

218.5
136.7

(NA)
134.5

+

257.4
69.2

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
148.2

Textile mill products
Apparel products

+
+

132.6
123.8

+
+

133.0
126.7

+
+

133.8
127.5

+
+

135.0
128.0

Paper and products
Printing and publishing

+
+

147.1
140.3

+
o

152.3
140.3

+
+

153.0
141.5

+
+

154.4*
142.7

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products

+

197.8
126.7

+
+

206.8
130.5

+

209.1
130.1

+
+

r212.0
131.2

Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products

+

245.9
67.7

+

253.1
67.2

+
+

259.2
70.2

+
+

259.6
71.2

71.2
154.9

+

73.1
148.9

+

90.8
145.7

+
+

107.2
151.6

+
+

122.2
155.3

+

127.1
150.5

+
+

127.9
158.7

133.6
123.5

+
+

134.7
128.2

+
+

135.4
129.0

+
+

137.4
133.0

+
+

139.1
137.8

+
+

141.8
140.1

+

143.4
139.3

+

Mining:
Metal mining
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

+

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.




78

+

145.9
(NA)

The "r" indicates revised; " p " ,

APRIL 1 9 8 1

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

j Q

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued

Diffusion index components

1981

1980
September

August

November

October

December

January

February

April1

March

96 1. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES RAW INDUSTRIALS 2

Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . .

+

Percent rising of 13 components

292.1 +
(77)

298.3 +
(58)

300.8

+ •

(65)

284.2 +

289.8 +

304.7

298.4

291.6

(54)

(46)

(31)

(31)

(65)

(85)

0.676
1.490

0.683
1.506

293.6

Dollars

0.732
1.614

0.716 +
1.578

0.732
1.614

+

0.256 +
0.564

0.294 +
0.648

0.302
0.666

(U.S. ton).,
(metric ton)..

+

78.000 +
85.979

89.000 +
98.105

93.000
102.514

Tin

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

o

7.742 +
17.068

7.974
17,579

Zinc

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

+

0.359 +
0.791

0.374 +
0.825

0.383
0.844

Burlap

(yard)..
(meter)..

+

0.331
0.362

0.325
0.355

0.314
0.343

Cotton

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

+

0.857 +
1.889

0.875
1.929

0.861
1.898

0.668
0.731

0.656 +
0.717

Copper scrap

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

Lead scrap..

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

Steel scrap .

7,728
17.037

-

-

+

-

0.719
1.585

0.654 +
1.442

0.662
1.459

0.652
1.437

0.294
0.648

0.260
0.573

0.239
0.527

0.206
0.454

+

0.233
0.514

+

0.248
0.547

98.000
108.025

+

106.600
117.505

+

109.000
120.151

6.372 14.048

6.280
13.845

+

6.297
13.882

98.000 +
108.025
7,405
16.325

103.800
114.419
6.766
14.916

96.000 +
105.821
6.668
14.700

0.396 +
0.873

0.416 o
0.917

0.416 o
0.917

0.416
0.917

+

0.420
0.926

+

0.436
0.961

0.286
0.313

0.273 +
0.299

0.280
0.306

0.266
0.291

+

0.275
0.301

+

0.282
0.308

0,869 +
1.916

0.875
1.929

0,850
1.874

0.825 1.819

0.816
1.799

+

0.817
1.801

0.665 +
0.727

0.684 +
0.748

0.702
0.768

0.688 +
0.752

0.722
0.790

+

0.752
0.822

+

0.777
0.850

+

-

+

Print cloth ..

(yard).,
(meter)..

Wool tops ..

(pound).,
(kilogram)..

+

3.400 +
7.496

3.460 +
7.628

3.500 0
7.716

3.500 o
7.716

3.500 o
7.716

3.500 +
7.716

3.575
7.881

+

3.600 0
7.937

3.600
7.937

Hides

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.522
1.151

0.474 +
1.045

0.498
1.098

0.592 +
1.305

0.624
1.376

0.572
1.261

0.519
1.144

+

0.528
1.164

0.548
1.208

Rosin

(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..

o

45.000 o
99.207

45.000 o
99.207

45.000 0
99.207

45.000 o
99.207

45.000 o
99.207

Rubber

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.688 +
1.517

0.756 +
1.667

0.802 1,768

0.796
1.755

Tallow

(pound)..
(kilogram)..

+

0.187
0.412

0.179
0.395

0.169
0.373

0.180
0.397

+

+

45.000 o
99.207

45.000 0
99.207

45.000 0
99.207

45.000
99.207

0,722
1.592

0.704
1,552

0.684 1.508

0,652 1.437

0.597
1.316

0.177 o
0.390

0.177
0.390

0.175 0.386

0,171
0.377

0.175
0.386

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Ayerage for April 7, 14, and 21.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.


APRIL 1981


+

+

The "r" indicates revised; "p",

79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Ei
Year
and
quarter

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

b. Difference

(Ann rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

217. Per capita
GNP in 1972
dollars

50. 3ross national product in 1972 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars
a. Total

GNP AND FPERSONAL INCOME

b. Difference

a. Tota

(Ann rate,

(Anr . rate,
bil dol.)

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

bil. dol.)

213. Final sales
in 1972 dollars

(Ann . rate,
bil. dol.)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

2 , 032.4
2 , 129.6
2, 190.5
2, 271.9

43.8
97.2
60.9
81.4

9. 1
20. 5
11. 9
15. 7

1 ,402
1,432
1,446
1,465

.3
.8
.7
.8

10.8
30.5
13.9
19.1

3 .2
9 .0
3 .9
5 .4

2, 340.6
2, 374.6
2, 444.1
2, 496.3

68.7
34.0
69.5
52.2

12. 7
5. 9
12. 2
8. 8

1 , 4 7 9 .9
1 , 4 7 3 .4
1 , 4 8 8 .2
1 , 4 9 0 .6

14.1
-6.5
14.8

2, 571.7
2, 564.8
2, 637.3
2, 730.6

75.4
-6.9
72.5
93.3

12. 6
-1. 1
11. 8
14. 9

1 ,501
1,463
1 ,471
1,485

p2, 826.8

p96.2

p!4. 9

6,431
6,55£ I
6,606
6,67< )

1 ,384
1 ,416
1 ,435
1 ,455

.6
.8
.2
.3

3 .9
-1 .7
4 .1
0 .6

6,73C
6,687
6,737
6,731

1 ,464
1 ,455
1 ,480
1 ,491

.4
.0
.6
.3

6,76/ 7
6,578 ]
6 , 5 9 ;r
6,640

1 ,502 .8
1 ,462 .0
1 ,476 .9
1 ,492 .7

p6,732)

Pi ,515 .0

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

2.4

1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

.9
.3
.9
.6

11.3
-38.6
13.7

3 .1
-9 .9
2 .4
3 .8

Pi , 5 0 9 .2

p23.6

p6 .5

8.6

1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

D
Year
and
quarter

B

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME—Continued
Disposable personal income

224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bi . dol.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

230. Total in currenl
dollars

231. Total in 1972
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

(Ann rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

233. Durable goods
in 1972 dollars

227. Per capita in
1972 dollars

225. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Ann. rate
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

1,398. 0
1,440. 7
1,482. 1
1,531. 0

966 .8
975 .5
985 .9
998 .0

4, 434
4 465
4 502
4S 547

1,278
1,330
1 ,369
1,416

1,580. 2
1,612. 8
1,663. 8
1,710. 1

1,005 .7
1,006 .9
1,015 .7
1,017.7

4, 574
4, 570
4, 598
4 , 596

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981

1,765. 1
1,784. 1
1,840. 6
1,897. 0

1,021
1,008
1,018
1,025

.0
.2
.5
8

4 , 600
4 , 532
4 , 565
4 , 585

1,626 8
1,682 2
1,751 0

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

\Dl,945. 5

pi,032 2

P4, 604

Pi , 8 0 5 4

3
1
9
6

884 ,1
900 6
911 2
923 4

185,0
200,1
202.0
210.2

139.
148.
147.
150.

1,454 1
1 ,478 0
1,529.1
1 ,582 3

925
922
933
941

5
8
4
6

212.5
207.4
213.3
216.1

149. 6
144.2
146. 7
146. 0

1,631 0

943
919
930
946

4
3
8
8

220.9
194.4
208.8
223.3

145. 4
126. ?
132.6
139.1

p957 8

p238.1

p!46. 6

5
1
0
7

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.




APRIL 1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

H H
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION

238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

i

Q

EXPENDITURES-Continued

237. Services in
current dollars

239. Services in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
241. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

242. Fixed investment, total, in
current dollars

243. Fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1978

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

504.0
520.4
536.3
558.3

339.8
342.4
347.2
353.5

589.3
609.5
631.6
648.1

404.8
410.1
417.1
419.2

350.7
377.7
380.4
392.6

224.9
232.9
229.3
231.8

325.8
350.7
361.3
374.9

207.2
216.9
217.8
221.3

571.8
586.4
611.5
639.2

351.1
350.6
355.4
361.3

669.9
684.2
704.3
727.0

424.8
428.0
431.3
434.3

408.3
423.2
421.7
410.0

237.7
238.7
232.6
221.5

384.0
390.1
408.3
410.8

222.3
220.4
225.0
222.2

661.1
664.0
674.2
703.5

361.5
356.6
354.9
360.4

749.0
768.4
799.2
824.2

436.5
436.5
443.3
447.3

415.6
390.9
377.1
397.7

218.3
200.5
195.3
200.5

413.1
383.5
393.2
415.1

219.2
199.2
200.2
207.6

p724.4

p363.8

p842.8

p447.4

P423.1

p206.6

p431.0

p212.4

1979
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1980
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1981
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

• •
GROSS PRIVATE
• f i l DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.
245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars

Yoar
Tear

and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

| j |
260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Total in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

267. State and
local government
in 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

27.0
19.1
17.7

17.7
16.0
11.5
10.6

415.7
425.1
438.3
451.3

274.6
276.3
280.0
280.1

149.5
149.1
154.1
160.7

99.4
98.0
100.8
101.0

266.2
276.0
284.2
290.6

175.3
178.3
179.2
179.2

24.3
33.1
13.3
-0.8

15.4
18.4
7.6
-0.7

458.2
465.1
475.4
496.4

280.6
280.3
281.1
285.3

164.8
163.6
165.1
178.1

102.9
100.8
99.9
103.1

293.4
301.6
310.4
318.3

177.7
179.4
181.2
182.2

2.5
7.4
-16.0
-17.4

-0.9
1.3
-5.0
-7.2

516.8
530.0
533.5
558.6

290.1
291.9
288.2
289.8

190.0
198.7
194.9
212.0

107.6
110.7
106.9
107.4

326.8
331.3
338.6
346.6

182.5
181.2
181.3
182.4

p-7.9

p-5.7

p574.1

p292.9

p219.6

pllO.6

p354.5

p!82.3

24.9

....
....

1979
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1980
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.


APRIL 1981


81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

• •
139

H E | FOREIGN TRADE

Imports of goods and services

Exports of goods and services

Net exports of goods and services

Year

and
quarter

255. Constant
(1972) dollars

250. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

253. Current
dollars

256. Constant
(1972) dollars

252 Current
dollars
Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

257. Constant
(1972) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS

220. National income in current

280. Compensation of

dollars

employees

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

195.9
214.8
225.3
243.5

118.3
125.4
129.8
136.6

208.2
218.1
223.3
232.0

99.
102!
103.
106.

5
4

11.4

18.7
23.0
26.1
30.5

19.9
8.2
17.9
7.6

36.0
31.6
41.1
42.2

259,1
266.8
293.1
306.3

141.1
140.5
151.3
154.8

239.2
258.6
275.2
298.7

105,
108.
110.
112.

8.2
17.1
44.5
23.3

50.1
51.7
57.6
48.5

337.3
333.3
342.4
346.1

165.9
160.5
160.5
157.4

329.1
316.2
297.9
322.7

P24.3

p51.8

p371.5

p!64.9

p347.2

-12.3
....
....

1 929,

7
2

1\,utt.0
644 fi
1,720.7
1,771.7
1,844.6

1
8
2
6

1,903.6
1,932.0
1,986.2
2,031,3

1,409.9
1,439.0
1,476.7
1,518.1

115. 3
108. 9
102. 8
108.

2,088.5
2,070.0
2,122.4
r2,204.8

1,558.0
1,569.0
1,597.4
1,661.8

(NA)

pi,721.8

K282.3
1,316.5
1,361.7

1979
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1980
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

p!13 1

....
....

E
282. Proprietors'
income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments

Year
Ted 1

and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1

JSm SAVING

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS—Continued
284. Rental income
of persons with
capital consumption adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

286. Corporate
profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

288. Net i nterest

(Ann rate,
bil. dol.)

290. Cross saving
(private and government)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

295. Business
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

110.3
115.5
118.2
124.6

25 .3
25 .4
28 .7
30 .0

163.6
185.2
190.5
202.7

107.3

112.3
117.8
125.7

326.9
354.0
359.4
380.4

260.1
275.5
284.9
295.8

84.6
73.6
73.4
73.8

127.8
129.4
132.9
136.3

30 .7
30 .1
30 .3
31 .0

201.9
196.6
199.5
189.4

133.4
136.9
146.8
156.5

407.4
416.2
422.3
402.0

304.4
310.3
320.5
315.7

83.8
90.9
89.3
80.7

133.7
124.9
129.7
134.C

31 .2
31 .5
32 .0
32.4

200.2
169.3
177.9
r!83.3

165.4
175.3
185.3
193.3

404.5
394.5
402.0
r406.7

326.7
325.8
334.6
r339.3

86.4
110.0
111.4
97.6

p!31.4

p32 .7

(NA)

p201.9

(NA)

1979
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1980
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....
....

1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

(NA)

p91.3

....
....

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.




82

APRIL 1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q

Year
and
quarter

Q |

SAVING—Continued

298. Government
surplus or deficit,
total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

293. Personal
saving rate
(percent of disposable personal
income)
(Percent)

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment

(Percent)

(Percent)

249. Residential
fixed investment

247. Change in
business inventories

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

251. Net exports of
goods and services

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

1.1
10.8

6.0
5.1
5.0
4.8

62.9
62.5
62.5
62.4

11.0
11.2
11.3
11.4

5.1
5.2
5.2
5.1

1.2
1.3
0.9
0.8

-0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.5

18.1
13.9
11.3
4.4

5.3
5.6
5.4
4.7

62.1
62.2
62.6
63.4

11.4
11.5
11.8
11.6

5.0
4.9
4.9
4.8

1.0
1.4
0.5
0.0

0.9
0.3
0.7
0.3

-9.6
-42.5
-45.6
r-30.8

4.9
6.2
6.1
5.1

63.4
63.4
63.8
64.1

11.6
11,3
11.1
11.1

4.5
3.6
3.8
4.1

0.1
0.3
-0.6
-0.6

0.3
0.7
1.7
0.9

(NA)

p4.7

p63.9

pll.l

p4.1

p-0.3

p0.9

-17.7
4.9

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

H B
Year
and
quarter

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued

Percent of GNP-Continued

Percent of national income

265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services

64. Compensation of
employees

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj•

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj1
(Percent)

(Percent)

287. Corporate
profits with IVA
and CCAdj*

289. Net interest

(Percent)

(Percent)

1978
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

7,4
7.0
7.0
7.1

13.1
13.0
13.0
12.8

75.3
74.5
74.3
73.8

6.7
6.7
6.7
6.8

1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6

9.9
10.8
10.8
11.0

6.5
6.5
6.6
6.8

7.0
6.9
6.8
7.1

12.5
12.7
12.7
12.8

74.1
74.5
74.3
74.7

6.7
6.7
6.7
6.7

1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5

10.6
10.2
10.0
9.3

7.0
7.1
7.4
7.7

7.4
7,7
7.4
7,8

12.7
12.9
12.8
12.7

74.6
75.8
75.3
75.4

6.4
6.0
6.1

6.1

1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5

9.6
8.2
8.4
8.3

7.9
8.5
8.7
8.8

p7.8

P12.5

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1979
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
1
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL 1981
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Q | PRICE MOVEMENTS
Implicit price deflator,
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1972 = 100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1979

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product
311. Index

(1972 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised2

Revised2

8.4

January
February
March

15^2

April
May
June

16K2

July
August
September

164.2

October
November
December

167! 5

311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans '

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans l

320c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

322. Index

322c. Change
over 1-month
spansl

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans '

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

0.8
1.0
0.9

10.6
11.4
12.2

225.2
228.2
230.1

1.3
1.3
0.8

12.0
12.0
10.6

9.7

211.5
214.1
216.6

1.0
1.0
1.0

12.9
13.0
13.6

231.5
233.2
233.9

0.6
0.7
0.3

9.0
6.3
7.0

9.5

218.9
221.1
223.4

1.2
1.1
1.2

13.9
14.0
14.4

235.1
235.3
238.0

0.5
0.1
1.1

7.6
7.7
9.7

10.0

225.4
227.5
229.9

1.1
1.1
1.2

14.9
15.4
15.8

240.1
242.0
245.0

0.9
0.8
1.2

8.9
8.3
7.7

10.1

233.2
236.4
239.8

1.4
1.3
1.3

15.3
14.8
14.3

245.3
244.9
247.0

0.1
-0.2
0.9

6.9
6.1
4.5

9.8

242.5
244.9
247.6

0.9
0.9
1.0

11.4
10.3
9.6

248.3
249.3
250.5

0.5
0.4
0.5

6.3
10.6
12.5

9.6

247.8
249.4
251.7

0.1
0.8
1.0

10.0
10.5
10.5

252.9
257.6
262.0

1.0
1.9
1.7

13.4
15.2
16.3

9.3

253.9
256.2
258.4

1.0
1.1
1.0

11.9
12.3
11.4

264.4
267.6
270.2

0.9
1.2
1.0

13.8
10.3
7.5

plO.2

260.5
263.2
265.1

0.7
1.0
0.6

269.8
270.6
271.6

-0.1
0.3
0.4

169.9
8.1

320. Index ©

204.7
207.1
209.1

166.1
7.8

Consumer prices, food

9.7
162.3

7.8

Consumer prices, all items

174.0

1980
January
February
March

171.2

April
May
June

175*.3

July
August
September

179.2

October
November
December

183.8

9.3
178.2
9.8
182^4
9.2
186.7
10.7
19CK9

1981
January
February
March

p7.8
pl87.3

p!95.*5

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
x
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month,
and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
2
See ;iNew Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




84

APRIL 1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

M M
Producer prices, all commodities
Year
and
month

330. Index ®

(1967 = 100)

330c. Change
over 1-month
spans l @

(Percent)

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
Producer prices, crude materials

Producer prices, industrial commodities

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans1 @

(Ann. rate,
percent)

335. Index @

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans: @

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans1 ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331. Index

(1967 = 100)

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans x

(Percent)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1979
January
February
March

220.8
224.1
226.7

1.5
1.5
1.2

14.5
15.7
15.3

220.0
222.5
225.4

1.3
1.1
1.3

13.8

15.0
16.1

255.3
261.4
266.5

2.2
2.4
2.0

21.1
20.2
20.7

April
May
June

230.0
232.0
233.5

1.5
0.9
0.6

15.1
13.1
14.0

229.0
231.6
234.0

1.6
1.1
1.0

16.5
16.9
17.4

271.2
271.4

1.8
0.1
l1 . ?C

18.1
8.6

July
August
September

236.9
238.3
242.0

1.5
0.6
1.6

14.0
13.5
14.4

237.5
240.6
244.2

1.5
1.3
1.5

18.2
17.1
17.0

277.4
272.4
281.1

1.0
-1.8
3.2

9.4
12.0
12.2

October
November
December

245.6
247.2
249.7

1.5
0.7
1.0

15.8
19.2
17.1

249.0
250.6
253.1

2.0
0.6
1.0

20.4
22.1
21.0

283.7
287.2
290.9

0.9
1.2
1.3

8.4
17.4
5.3

January
February
March

254.9
260.2
261.9

2.1
2.1
0.7

14.5
14.2
13.1

260.6
265.9
268.6

3.0
2.0
1.0

18.7
17.7
16.8

288.8
295.1
288.4

-0.7
2.2
-2.3

-0.4
-0.8
-1.8

April
May
June

262.8
264.2
265.6

0.3
0.5
0.5

12.5
10.7

1.0
0.2

12.3
9.5

0.6

7.7

283.1
286.1
288.3

-1.8
1.1

9.9

271.3
271.9
273.5

0.8

10.5
15.8
24.5

July
August
September

270.4
273.8
274.6

1.8
1.3
0.3

11.7
rll.6
11.4

276.2
278.2
278.8

1.0
0.7
0.2

8.0
r8.6
9.4

303.6
317.5
321.8

5.3
4.6
1.4

33.6
r33.6
27.3

October
November
December

277.8
r279.1
280.3

1.2

r0.5
r0.4

9.9
9.8
11.2

282.0
r283.4
286.1

1.1
rO.5
rl.O

10.2
12.3
14.9

327.2
r330.7
325.3

1.7
rl.l
r-1.6

12.6
8.9
3.3

283.5
286.9
289.6

1.1
1.2
0.9

289.9
294.8
298.9

1.3
1.7
1.4

322.1
331.4
327.0

-1.0
2.9
-1.3

L. 1 •+ . O

n1 1 . ^O

1980

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
Percent changes are centered within the spans:
month.


APRIL 1981


1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th

8E

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q j

332. Index

(1967 = 100)

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans '

(Percent)

Producer prices, finished consumer goods

Producer prices, capital equipment

Producer prices, intermediate materials
Year
and
month

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Contmued

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans '

(Ann. rate,
percent)

333. Index

(1967 = 100)

333c. Change
over 1-month
spans '

(Percent)

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans '

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

(1967 = 100)

334c. Change
over 1-month
spansJ

(Percent)

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1979
January
February
March

227.0
228.9
231.6

0.8
1.2

13.3
13.8
14.7

208.1
210.0
211.4

0.7
0.9
0.7

10.0
9.2
9.2

206.1
208.3
210.3

1.3
1.1
1.0

13.0
12.7
11.3

April
May
June

235.2
238.0
240.4

1.6
1.2
1.0

15.9
16.9
17.9

213.3
214.7
215.9

0.9
0.7
0.6

9.2
7.7
7.9

212.3
213.5
214.7

1.0
0.6
0.6

11.1
11.2
13.5

July
August
September

244.4
247.5
251.5

1.7
1.3
1.6

18.0
17.4
17.5

217.5
217.9
219.6

0.7
0.2
0.8

7.7
8.0
8.4

217.2
219.7
224.0

1.2
1.2
2.0

13.9
16.1
16.7

October
November
December

255.5
257.9
260.6

1.6
0.9
1.0

19.6
20.8
18.7

221.4
223.1
224.8

0.8
0.8
0.8

10.1
11.4
11.7

226.6
230.0
231.9

1.2
1.5

0.8

17.9
18.6
16.8

January
February
March

267.3
272.0
274.0

2.6
1.8
0.7

15.6
14.9
14.1

228.2
230.0
232.1

1.5
0.8
0.9

13.4
12.5
12.3

235.8
239.3
242.1

1.7
1.5
1.2

15.3

April
May
June

274.7
276.4
278.4

0.3
0.6
0.7

10.5
8.8
8.3

235.8
236.6
238.2

1.6
0.3
0.7

11.6
12.2
10.4

243.3
244.5
246.6

0.5
0.5
0.9

13.5
12.9
11.0

July
August
September

281.0
283.7
285.2

0.9
1.0
0.5

9.6
rlO.2
11.0

241.1
243.6
243.9

1.2
1.0
0.1

10.7
rll.4
10.7

251.2
254.3
255.1

1.9
1.2
0.3

11.7
rl2.1
10.7

October
November
December

287.6
r290.2
293.3

0.8
r0.9
rl.l

11.6
10.3
11.5

248.1
r249.7
250.6

1.7
r0.6
r0.4

10.1

257.1
r258.9
259.4

0.8
rO.7
r0.2

8.4
7.4
9.7

296.8
297.9
301.1

1.2
0.4
1.1

253.0
255.8
257.7

1.0
1.1
0.7

261.5
263.6
267.2

0.8
0.8
1.4

1.1

1980

10.3
11.6

13.0
13.1

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
Percent changes are centered within the spans:
month.




1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th

APRIL 1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarni economy, adjustec
Year
and
month

Current-dollar compensation

Real earnings

Current-dollar earnings

IIIUII III

340. Index

(1967 = 100)

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341. Index

(1967 = 100)

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345. Index

(1977 = 100)

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1979
January
February
March

222.6
224.0
225.2

0.7
0.6
0.5

7.8
7.6
7.5

108.3
107.8
107.4

-0.2
-0.5
-0.4

-3.0
-3.8
-4.4

114! 7

April
May
June

226.7
227.6
229.2

0.7
0.4
0.7

7.5
7.6
8.2

107.1
106.4
106.1

-0.3
-0.7
-0.3

-5.0
-4.8
-4.8

117.5

July

230.8
232.3
234.3

0.7
0.6
0.9

7.5
8.8
9.1

105.6
105.2
104.8

-0.5
-0.4
-0.4

-5.5
-4.5
-4.5

119! 8

235.0
237.3
239.4

0.3
1.0
0.9

8.4
8.9
9.6

104.1
104.0
103.6

-0.7
-0.1
-0.4

-5.5
-5.5
-5.2

122! 5

240.3
242.4
245.2

0.4
0.9
1.2

9.8
9.4
9.8

102.6
102.2
102.0

-1.0
-0.4
-0.2

-4.8
-4.6
-3.8

125.3

246.2
248.3
250.9

0.4
0.9
1.0

10.0
9.8
8.4

101.5
101.5
101.6

-0.5
0.0
0.1

-1.1
-0.3
-1.2

128^7

252.1
254.0
255.4

0.5
0.8
0.6

9.7
10.5
9.0

102.0
102.0
101.5

0.4
0.0
-0.5

-0.2
-0.1
-1.7

131.6

257.9
260.9
261.8

1.0
1.2
0.3

rlO.O
rlO.O
plO.5

101.4
101.4
100.8

-0.1
0.0
-0.6

r-2.1
r-2.4
p-0.8

134!)

r264.4

rl.O
rO.7
p0.8

rlOl.O
rl00.8
plOl.O

rO.2
r-0.2
pO.2

August
September
October
November
December

10.8
9*.6

10.0
9^5

8.2
9!3

9.2
9!o"

1980
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

9.6
9.*9

11.4
10.0

9.3
pl0.4

9.5

1981
January
February
March

r266.3
p268.5

pll.2
p!38.3

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month,
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.


APRIL 1981


87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector-Continued
Year
and
month

346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans *

(1977 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans:
(Ann. rate,
percent)

PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries ©
348. First year
average changes

Real compensation
346. Index

WAGES AND

(Ann. rate,
percent)

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per hour, all persons private
business sector
370. Index

(1977 = 100)

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

358. Index of
output per hour
all persons,
nonfarm
business sector

(1977 = 100)

1979
January
February
March

2.8

-0.4

April
May
June

99*6

July
August
September

98*5

October
November
December

97*5

99*7

10.5

-2.5

99*6

9.0

-3.8

4'.2

99*2

8.5

99*5

-0*9

99*1

-6*4

98*7

-o*8

98*6

0.0

98*6

r-O.l

97*9

p6!5

98*8

-1.5

6.1

-4*. 3

-0.7

-0.2

7.8

-2.8

-4.6

-0.8

5.3

-1*9

100*3

-1.1

6.0
99*0

1980
January
February
March

r8.8

-6.2

April
May
June

'

July
August
September
October
November
December

r6.7

-2*6

95.9

rl0.2

-2.0

2.0

p-6.8

95*9

r-3.0

-1.9

r7.4
98." 8

r-2.3

95*5

1.3
99*. 3

rll.4

1.5

r7.2
99.'2

r8.5

r-1.2

r6.1

r98.7

r98.9

r95.1

1981
January
February
March

p-0.2
p95.'l

pl0.4

p3.9

p7.3
p99'.8

p99.6

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Percent changes are centered within the spans:
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are

APRIL 1981

BUI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

D

| CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND VIAJOR COMPONENTS

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

441. Total

(Thous.)

442. Employed

(Thous.)

451. Males
20 years
and over

448. Number em-

Number unemployed

Labor force participatiorl rates
452. Females
20 years
and over

453. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

37. Total

(Thous.)

447. Fulltime
workers

444. Males
20 years
and over

445. Females
20 years
and over

446. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

ployed
part-time
for economic
reasons

(Thous.)

1979
January
February
March

102,014
102,393
102,578

96,056
96,400
96,622

80.0
80.1
79.9

50.1
50.3
50.5

58.8
58.9
58.7

5,958
5,993
5,956

2,201
2,188
2,188

2,205
2,251
2,246

1,552
1,554
1,522

4,573
4,692
4,602

3,234
3,209
3,248

April
May
June

102,213
102,366
102,556

96,295
96,590
96,838

79.8
79.7
79.7

50.2
50.3
50.4

58.4
57.9
57.8

5,918
5,776
5,718

2,165
2,083
2,097

2,178
2,147
2,177

1,575
1,546
1,444

4,621
4,450
4,422

3,279
3,252
3,267

July
August
September

103,015
103,105
103,492

97,277
97,048
97,521

79.9
79.8
79.9

50.7
51.0
50.9

57.6
56.6
58.1

5,738
6,057
5,971

2,177
2,235
2,232

2,122
2,303
2,180

1,439
1,519
1,559

4,484
4,661
4,670

3,243
3,286
3,155

October
November
December

103,566
103,605
104,053

97,434
97,501
97,781

79.7
79.5
79.5

50.9
50.9
51.2

57.7
57.9
58.5

6,132
6,104
6,272

2,333
2,385
2,435

2,240
2,214
2,276

1,559
1,505
1,561

4,785
4,814
4,911

3,289
3,405
3,541

January
February
March

104,208
104,271
104,171

97,708
97,817
97,628

79.5
79.6
79.4

51.3
51.3
51.2

58.0
57.5
57.4

6,500
6,454
6,543

2,629
2,581
2,736

2,314
2,311
2,295

1,557
1,562
1,512

5,130
5,114
5,265

3,549
3,454
3,470

April
May
June

104,427
105,060
104,591

97,225
97,116
96,780

79.5
79.9
79.4

51.4
51.5
51.4

56.5
57.9
56.7

7,202
7,944
7,811

3,192
3,569
3,558

2,501
2,593
2,569

1,509
1,782
1,684

5,825
6,586
6,430

3,803
4,276
3,969

July
August
September

105,020
104,945
104,980

96,999
97,003
97,180

79.4
79.4
79.4

51.5
51.6
51.3

57.1
55.5
56.7

8,021
7,942
7,800

3,630
3,612
3,652

2,655
2,633
2,513

1,736
1,697
1,635

6,631
6,553
6,516

4,086
4,143
4,183

October
November
December

105,167
105,285
105,067

97,206
97,339
97,282

79.3
79.2
79.0

51.4
51.5
51.4

56.8
56.5
56.0

7,961
7,946
7,785

3,532
3,532
3,425

2,732
2,720
2,750

1,697
1,694
1,610

6,559
6,632
6,549

4,220
4,176
4,218

105,543
105,681
106,177

97,696
97,927
98,412

78.8
78.7
79.2

51.8
51.9
52.1

57.0
57.0
56.6

7,847
7,754
7,764

3,352
3,312
3,305

2,750
2,680
2,725

1,744
1,762
1,734

6,460
6,396
6,407

4,474
4,145
4,227

1980

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 5 1 .


APRIL 1981


OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Q |

RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES

Federal Government1

Year
and
month

500. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

H I

DEFENSE INDICATORS

1\dvance measures of defense activity

State and local governments'

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

510. Surplus
or deficit

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

525. Defense
Department
military prime
contract
awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

548. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

10,770
10,226
10,935

5,706
4,773
5,763

65,120
48,267
67,128

2,684
3,871
3,102

1979
January
February
March

488! 4

April
May
June

340! 9

485.'9

494.'6

2K9

342!)

320.8

9,784
10,683
10,615

4,936
4,720
5,117

68,883
68,468
68,976

3,181
3,640
2,464

26.*5

355.*4

328.' 9

11,792
11,022
12,278

6,135
5,282
6,364

70,252
81,542
71,886

2,332
3,029
4,237

365.6

336.7

12,081
11,505
11,997

4,318
5,670
5,489

64,325
68,634
68,525

3,048
4,033
3,787

372*.i

345'.4

12,578
12,399
13,806

5,515
7,152
5,781

70,088
68,497
72,961

3,352
3,680
4,594

37^9

350.6

13,722
13,718
12,809

7,572
7,483
7,184

73,766
74,848
75,204

4,948
5,279
3,546

386! 8

358!2

12,677
13,728
13,552

6,768
7,633
7,410

76,366
76,506
79,260

4,366
4,515
6,458

13,014
12,876
15,825

4,572
6,794
9,663

77,930
76,530
79,312

3,908
4,453
5,825

14,808
(NA)

(NA)

80,829
(NA)

4,193
r5,657
p4,623

July
August
September

-15.*2

500.6

™-°

October
November
December

-24.5

514.0

538!o"
2

^

1980
January
February
March

- 3 6 '.3

528'.4

564'.7

April
May
June

-66*. 5

52CL9

587! 3

July
August
September

-7^2

540.'8

615!6

28.6

October
November
December

r-67.9

r573.2

641.1

37 .'l

r403.4

366.3

(NA)

p66Ch3

(NA)

(NA)

p374!i

26*.6

2

-

1981
January
February
March

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1
Based on national income and product accounts.




90

APRIL 1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
£) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Q

DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued
National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

557. Output of
defense and
space equipment

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

580. Defense
Department
net outlays

(1967 = 100)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

570. Employment in defense products
industries

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Thous.)

Defense Department
personnel
577. Military,
active duty ©

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment @

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services

565. Federal
purchases as
a percent of
GNP

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent)

1979
January
February
March

92.3
92.4
93.0

7,397
7,485
7,586

43,409
44,515
44,588

9,645
9,452
9,525

2,838
2,765
3,029

1,242
1,262
1,278

2,040
2,030
2,026

972
971
968

106^0

4^5

April
May
June

92.1
92.4
92.2

7,573
7,806
7,953

44,854
45,670
45,138

9,299
9,781
9,425

2,915
2,824
2,996

1,283
1,289
1,299

2,022
2,018
2,024

968
972
979

108.' 1

4^6

July
August
September

92.9
91.9
93.8

8,048
8,178
8,553

44,656
44,697
46,000

10,499
10,103
9,982

2,814
2,988
2,934

1,310
1,312
1,324

2,027
2,024
2,027

982
974
960

112!6

4,'<5

October
November
December

95.4
96.4
96.7

8,871
9,275
9,462

46,010
46,893
47,492

9,982
10,206
11,182

3,038
3,150
3,188

1,336
1,349
1,356

2,030
2,029
2,020

964
967
967

11&\7

k'.S

January
February
March

97.0
97.2
97.1

9,592
9,619
10,075

47,769
48,196
49,401

11,341
10,632
11,235

3,076
3,253
3,389

1,359
1,366
1,377

2,029
2,032
2,033

964
965
966

12b!o

4.9

April
May
June

97.6
97.2
96.8

10,277
10,451
10,588

51,061
52,902
53,011

11,356
11,061
11,480

3,286
3,440
3,435

1,373
1,375
1,373

2,028
2,031
2,034

969
975
988

12&\7

5^6

July
August
September

97.2
96.9
97.4

10,908
11,177
11,310

53,922
55,112
57,771

11,303
11,135
11,648

3,453
3,324
3,798

1,371
1,379
1,384

2,044
2,049
2,051

990
973
971

13K4

5!6

October
November
December

98.5
99.8
100.7

11,647
11,833
12,038

57,904
58,501
60,599

12,371
11,209
13,055

3,776
3,858
3,726

1,394
1,398
1,401

2,053
2,056
2,051

971
972
973

141.6

s'.2

rl00.8
rlOO.7
plOl.O

12,449
12,645
(NA)

61,107
r62,844
p63,097

r!2,769
(NA)

3,686
r3,919
p4,371

rl,400
pi,393
(NA)

2,056
p2,061
(NA)

973
p972
(NA)

pl44.9

p5.1

1980

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL
1981
Federal Reserve Bank
of St.
Louis

91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Q |

Year
and
month

602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

(Mil. dol.)

604. Exports of agricultural products

(Mil. dol.)

MERCHANDISE TRADE

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

(Mil. dol.)

612. General imports,
total

(Mil. dol.)

614. Imports of
petroleum and
petroleum products

616. Imports of
automobiles and parts

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1979

14,297

2,531
2,444
2,609

2,682
2,832
2,917

16,528
14,605
15,358

3,580
3,634
3,667

1,963
1,706
1,589

April
May
June

13,979
14,083
14,817

2,540
2,597
2,828

2,706
2,859
3,034

15,841
16,438
16,835

3,832
4,000
4,199

1,956
1,851
1,730

July
August
September

15,691
15,713
15,822

2,954
3,019
3,032

3,022
3,241
3,153

16,806
18,277
18,407

4,692
4,949
5,662

1,815
2,113
1,849

October
November
December

16,680
16,928
16,742

3,309
3,459
3,311

3,251
3,172
3,240

19,037
18,548
19,665

6,050
5,351
6,502

1,805
1,984
1,871

January
February
March

17,419
16,984
18,265

3,442
3,484
3,325

3,297
3,454
3,423

21,142
21,779
20,947

5,614
7,741
6,991

1,899
2,035
1,960

April
May
June

18,567
17,647
18,440

3,329
3,326
3,085

3,571
3,620
3,943

19,766
20,587
20,353

5,185
7,191
6,611

1,710
1,999
1,843

July
August
September

18,267
19,086
18,828

3,286
3,557
3,596

3,985
4,230
4,027

19,139
19,713
19,940

5,153
6,018
4,982

2,103
2,139
2,270

October
November
December

19,214
18,715
19,251

3,485
3,464
3,838

4,117
3,968
3,819

20,347
19,860
21,436

5,876
6,051
6,254

2,189
2,314
1,897

18,825
19,764
(NA)

4,295
3,977
(NA)

4,058
4,155
(NA)

23,194
21,922
(NA)

7,359
8,018
(NA)

2,264
1,742
(NA)

January
February
March

13,265
13,616

1980

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.




92

APRIL

1981

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Q j

GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)

Merchandise, adjusted l

Goods and services
Year
and
month

667.

Balance

(Mil.dol.)

668. Exports

(Mil.dol.)

622. Balance

669. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

618. Exports

(Mil.dol.)

Income on nvestments

620. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

651. U.S. investments abroad

(Mil.dol.)

652. Foreign
investments in
the United
States

(Mil.dol.)

1979
January
February
March

2,730

65,668

62,938

-5,116

41,806

46,922

14,263

7,225

-100

67,764

67,864

-8,060

42,816

50,876

15,250

7,980

July
August
September

2,514

74,782

72,268

-7,052

47,207

54,259

18,050

8,731

October
November
December

-183

78,307

78,490

-9,158

50,239

59,397

18,407

9,524

-809

85,521

86,330

-10,848

54,604

65,452

20,824

10,762

-1,115

81,767

82,882

-7,503

54,605

62,i 08

16,620

10,51*8

July
August
September

6,020

86,015

79,995

-2,858

56,181

59,039

18,756

10,700

October
November
December

p2,983

p87,586

p84,603

p-6,145

p56,391

p62,536

pl9,830

pll,514

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

April
May
June

1980
January
February
March
April
May
June

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).


APRIL 1981


93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q |
47. United States,
index of industrial production
Year
and
month

(1967 = 100)

721. OECD1
European countries, index of
industrial
production

(1967 = 100)

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

(1967 = 100)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

726. France,
index of industrial production

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

(1967 = 100)

723. Canada,
index of industrial production

(1967 = 100)

1979
January
February
March

152.0
152.5
153.5

154
156
158

210.7
213.4
213.1

159
157
161

158
160
163

122
131
133

152.8
160.0
156.0

160.8
161.0
162.0

April
May
June

151.1
152.7
153.0

158
159
159

214.4
218.2
218,5

161
164
164

160
164
164

132
134
136

156.7
151.9
145.1

160.3
162.1
160.6

July
August
September

153.0
152.1
152.7

162
159
161

221.2
221.8
220.5

167
164
164

170
170
167

134
130
129

150.4
150.1
159.4

163.1
163.3
165.4

October
November
December

152.7
152.3
152.5

162
162
162

225.0
228.1
228.4

166
167
167

164
164
166

130
132
131

166.8
167.3
164.7

164.7
163.7
160.8

January
February
March

152.7
152.6
152.1

163
165
165

230.9
243.3
235.0

168
170
170

166
167
166

130
126
125

rl68.9
rl76.1
r!74.6

160.9
161.2
164.2

April
May
June

148.3
144.0
141.5

163
158
159

238.8
236.4
234.0

168
164
163

167
160
160

124
123
123

r!76.1
rl62.3
H67.4

160.6
157.3
155.9

July
August
September

140.4
141.8
144.1

161

r!55
r!56

235.0
224,0
233.2

164
161
160

166
166
157

123
120

H65.2
rl41.5
H60.8

155.5
157.2
159.7

October
November
December

146.9
149.4
r!51.0

158
r!56
r!55

235.2
232.1
237.2

163
160
157

160
154
163

r!17
rl!6

rl62.9
H69.7
rl59.5

160.7
H61.3
rl61.5

rl51.7
r!51.1
pl51.7

(NA)

238.7
p242.0
(NA)

(NA)

pl52
(NA)

p!15
(NA)

P157.7
(NA)

160.5
pl61.8
(NA)

1980

117
117

1981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
O r g a n i z a t i o n for Economic Cooperation and Development.




94

APRIL 1981

KCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL

COMPARISONS—Continued

Q

United States

Year
and
month

320. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

West Germany

Japan

320c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

(Ann. rate,
percent)

738. Index

©

(1967 = 100)

CONSUMER PRICES

738c. Change
over 6-month
spansi

(Ann. rate,
percent)

735. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

United kingdom

France

735c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

(Ann. rate,
percent)

736. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

736c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans '

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1979
January
February
March

204.7
207.1
209.1

10.6
11.4
12.2

253.9
253.1
255.1

1.8
3.1
4.6

162.9
163.6
164.4

4.4
4.3
4.7

245.5
247.1
249.4

9.8
10.4
10.9

332.9
335.6
338.3

11.4
11.4

April
May
June

211.5
214.1
216.6

12.9
13.0
13.6

258.6
261.3
261.5

7.3
7.0
5.3

165.3
165.7
166.6

6.0
5.8
5.8

251.8
254.5
256.6

11.9
12.6
11.7

344.1
346.8
352.8

21.5
21.4
22.1

July
August
September

218.9
221.1
223.4

13.9
14.0
14.4

263.8
261.1
264.4

6.7
6.9
6.9

167.7
167.8
168.3

6.0
6.4
6.1

260.0
262.7
264.9

12.7
12.4
12.8

368.0
370.9
374.6

23.2
23.7
21.5

October
November
December

225.4
227.5
229.9

14.9
15.4
15.8

267.7
266.7
268.3

6.0
8.9
10.8

168.7
169.3
170.1

4.0
5.4
5.6

268.1
269.8
272.0

14.2
14.7
15.6

378.5
381.8
384.6

15.4
16.8
17.4

January
February
March

233.2
236.4
239.8

15.3
14.8
14.3

270.8
273.3
275.5

9.9
9.5
9.9

171.0
172.8
173.8

5.6
5.6
5.7

277.2
280.2
283.4

15.0
15.0
14.1

394.1
399.7
405.1

20.4
20.5
20.5

April
May
June

242.5
244.9
247.6

11.4
10.3
9.6

280.2
282.7
283.5

9.5
8.2
7.2

174.9
175.6
176.5

6.9
5.5
4.7

286.7
289.3
291.1

12,9
12.3
11.6

419.0
422.8
426.8

18,5
15.8
14.1

July
August
September

247.8
249.4
251.7

10.0
10.5
10.5

284.2
283.7
288.1

5.6
7.3
4.3

176.8
177.0
177.0

4.6
5.0
5.2

295.5
298.4
301.0

11.8
12.2
13.2

430.4
431.3
434.1

10.6
10.4
9.9

October
November
December

253.9
256.2
258.4

11.9
12.3
11.4

288.5
289.1
287.2

5.7
5.2
(NA)

177.3
178.3
179.4

4.9
5.4
6.3

304.3
306.4
309.1

12.7
12.7
(NA)

436.8
440.3
442.7

8.2
9.7
11.1

13.2

1980

1981
January
February
March

260.5
263.2
265.1

290.7
290.9
(NA)

180.9
182.3
183.5

312.7
315.6
(NA)

445.5
449.5
456.2

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.


APRIL 1981


95

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Year
and
month

1
9

CONSUMER PRICES-Continued

Italy

Canada

737. Index © 737c. Change
over 6-month
spansl

733. Index ® 733c. Change

(1967 = 100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

Q |

STOCK PRICES

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ®

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©

over 6-month
spans'

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

1979
January
February
March

305.1
309.7
313.8

14.5
15.6
15.6

211.2
213.2
215.7

10.9
10.1
9.9

108.5
106.9
108.9

416.1
409.9
405.7

135.0
131.9
131.2

160,9
149,9
155.4

211.1
212.2
240.8

52.4
54.8
57.9

138.4
141.1
150.7

April
May
June

317.8
321.3
323.9

14.9
15.5
17.8

217.2
219.3
220.3

9.5
8.5
8.5

111.0
108,5
110.7

402.9
411.1
402.3

130.6
127.8
121.7

164.5
162,0
171.7

255.7
255.0
241.0

54.1
56.8
58.0

149.5
154.8
168.9

July
August
September

326.7
330.6
339.2

19.2
19.4
21.7

222.1
222.9
224.9

7.9

8.8
9.5

111.7
116.8
118.1

400.6
408.0
412.5

122.0
124.3
125.7

173,7
188.6
207.4

232.8
233.9
236.3

58.8
61.7
63.0

159.4
178.6
191.7

October
November
December

345.5
350.3
356.6

25.8
26,1
23.1

226.5
228.7
230,1

10.0
10.4
9.9

113.6
112.8
117.2

408.2
403.4
410.8

123.5
118.3
118.8

187.5
189.1
186.8

238,9
215.6
217.1

62.6
58.6
55,4

175.2
189.3
199.5

January
February
March

367.9
374.3
378.2

23.0
22.6
20.4

231.3
233.3
235.8

10,3
9.9
10.6

120,6
125.5
113.9

420.1
425.5
413.0

117.2
123.3
118.1

203.8
207.4
185.4

224.3
239.4
231.6

59.8
61.1
61.1

224.7
256.3
203.2

April
May
June

384.3
388.2
391.7

18.4
18.1
19.6

237.2
240.0
242.7

10.0
11.0
11.5

112.0
117.1
124.6

417.6
422.9
423.8

116.5
118.8
120.6

189.0
201.1
201.4

228.1
230.3
240.7

61.0
61.5
64.8

212.8
216.4
227.5

July
August
September

398.7
403.5
411.6

19.1
21.6
23.2

244.5
246.8
249.0

11.7
12.7
12.0

130.4
134.3
137.6

424.9
429.1
437.6

121.2
121.7
120.0

198.9
199.9
203.0

255.9
256.7
262.6

66.0
74.4
82.7

240.0
232.3
233.5

October
November
December

418.6
427.4
433.0

21.5
21.7
20.7

251.2
254,3
255.8

14.1
13.3
13.2

141,7
147.6
145.2

447.5
447.8
443.5

120.6
117,2
116.3

218.0
r215.2
206.6

267.4
277,5
267.6

93.5
99.2
96.0

223.3
235.2
219.9

144.6
139.7
144.9

457.9
458.2
467.3

115.3
114.0
116.3

rp!84.6
rp!86.7
rpl94.3

259.0
269.0
273.2

110.0
122.1
125.9

223.7
218.6
rp223.3

pl46.6

p487.5

pl21.5

pl92.5

P288.7

p!34.7

p233.5

1980

.......

1981
January
February
March

441.2
449.1
455.4

259.1
261.7
265.2

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.




96

APRIL 1981

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year
92.

Jan

Fet).

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

Aug.

July

Sept.

Oct.

CHANGE IN SENSITIVE CRUDE MATERIALS PRICES (PPI OF CRUDE MATERIALS LESS AGRICULTURAL
MONTHLY DATA 1
(MONTHLY IIATE, PERCENT)

Nov.

Dec

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

Annual

PRODUCTS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958.. .
1959.. .
1960.. .
1961.. .
1962.
. .
1963...
1964.. .

i. 83
-0. 76
0.
1. 61
-0. 73
-0. 65
-1. 25
2. 36
1. 17
-1. 04
-0. 84
0. 30
-0. 10
-0.32
0. 72
-0. 63
0.

0. 68
- 2 . 51
1. 69
0. 19
-0.42
1. 63
-0. 81
2. 09
-1. 73
-1. 34
1. 05
1. 41
-1. 65
0. 63
-0. 31
0. 11
-0. 32

-0. 45
-1. 34
1. 43
0.
0. 21
0. 21
-0. 46
0. 54
0. 98
-0. 68
-0. 52
0. 79
-1. 88
1. 16
-1. 12
0.
0. 32

3.37
-4.53
1.76
0.09
-0.63
-0.53
1.52
0.75
1.07
-1.76
-0.84
0.29
0.30
0.73
-0.93
-0.21
1.48

1.41
-3.08
3.00
-0.28
0.21
-0.43
2.64
-0.53
-1.44
1.59
0.53
0.
0.20
0.31
-0.31
0.
-0.42

-0. 21
-0. 98
4. 03
-1.78
-2.64
1. 61
-0. 56
0. 11
- 4 . 19
2. 06
0. 53
0. 39
-1. 20
0. 10
-0. 84
-0. 11
0. 42

2. 90
-0. 87
1. 08
-1. 90
-0. 65
1. 06
-0. 56
3. 20
0. 20
-0. 29
0. 63
0.
-0. 71
0. 51
-0. 11
0.
0. 83

-0. 52
0.
3. 51
-2. 52
-0. 33
-1. 36
-1. 13
1. 86
2. 84
-1. 25
0. 73
0.
-1. 02
0. 51
-0. 32
-0. 64
1. 24

-0.94
3.24
2.57
-0.80
-0.66
-2.02
0.11
2.43
0.49
-2.54
0.93
0.59
-0.41
0.30
0.32
0.11
0.

-1.27
-0.48
1.80
-0.80
0.99
-2.60
2.17
-0.59
0.29
-2.60
2.45
0.29
-1.04
0.51
-0.32
0.43
0.81

0.
0.73
2.26
-2.63
0.11
-0.11
0.67
0.20
1.27
-2.26
0.40
0.58
-0.73
-2.52
-0.21
0.11
0.61

-0. 75
-0. 36
1. 35
-0. 21
0. 98
-1. 90
-1. 11
2. 09
1. 84
0. 63
-1. 29
-0. 87
0.
0. 93
0. 85
0. 53
1. 31

0. 69
-1. 54
1. 04
0. 60
-0. 31
0. 40
-0. 84
1. 66
0. 14
-1. 02
-0. 10
0. 83
-1. 21
0. 49
-0. 24
-0. 17
0.

1.52
-2.86
2.93
-0.66
-1.02
0.22
1.20
0.11
-1.52
0.63
0.07
0.23
-0.23
0.38
-0.69
-0.11
0.49

0.48
0.79
2.39
-1.74
-0.55
-0.77
-0.53
2.50
1.18
-1.36
0.76
0.20
-0.71
0.44
-0.04
-0.18
0.69

-0.67
-0.04
1.80
-1.21
0.69
-1.54
0.58
0.57
1.13
-1.41
0.52
0.
-0.59
-0.36
0.11
0.36
0.91

0.50
-0.91
2.04
-0.75
-0.30
-0.42
0.10
1.21
0.23
-0.79
0.31
0.31
-0. 69
0.24
-0.21
-0.02
0.52

1965...
1966...
1967.
. .
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972.. .
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980.. .
1981...

-1. 98
1. 07
-0. 59
-0. 29
0. 48
0. 78
0.50
0.40
0. 94
4. 39
- 2 . 09
-1. 15
- 2 . 23
-0. 25
0. 62

0.
1. 25
-0. 99
0. 20
0.
1. 20
0.
0.16
1. 22
5. 89
0. 32
-1. 46
3 68
0. 72
3. 07

0. 30
0. 76
-0. 80
0. 79
1. 53
0. 25
-0. 33
1. 58
0. 07
4. 27
-1. 90
1. 09
0. 96
0. 50
2. 98

0.71
-0.28
-1.21
-1.5b
1.41
0.59
1.49
-0.39
2.05
5.28
0.83
3.19
0.88
2.34
0.88

1.20
0.19
0.61
-0.79
0.93
0.25
-0.08
0. 70
2.35
-3.30
1.65
1.46
1.52
1.56
2.67

-0. 40
0. 66
0. 71
0. 70
1. 10
0. 42
-0. 16
0. 39
2. 64
0. 84
0. 94
1. 15
-1. 04
1. 98
3. 25

0. 10
0. 19
0. 10
0. 99
1. 27
-0. 50
0. 81
1. 01
1. 12
6. 03
-0. 04
3.14
0. 53
1. 91
1. 18

0. 99
-3. 18
0.
0.
1. 61
-1. 01
-0. 16
1. 53
1. 63
0. 09
0. 04
-0. 91
0. 71
0. 03
0. 38

-0.20
-0.19
0.30
0.29
1.06
1.27
0.49
0.45
3.40
0.70
2.85
-0.36
0.30
1.35
3.39

0.49
-0.19
0.20
1.18
0.17
1.68
0.24
1.35
2.85
0.22
-0.52
2.28
0.45
1.65
2.79

0.49
-0.29
0. 90
0.58
0.09
-1.90
-0.64
1.70
5.90
0.30
0.91
1.68
0.74
1.31
1.98

0. 19
-0. 78
0. 59
0. 48
0. 61
1. 68
1. 62
1. 02
3. 70
-2. 81
1. 60
-1. 69
2. 31
0. 88
2. 11

-0. 56
1. 03
-0. 79
0. 23
0. 67
0. 74
0. 06
0. 71
0. 74
4. 85
-1. 22
-0. 51
0. 80
0. 32
2. 22

0.50
0.19
0.04
-0.55
1.15
0.42
0.42
0.23
2.35
0.94
1.14
1.93
0.45
1.96
2.27

0.30
-1.06
0.13
0.43
1.31
-0.08
0.38
1.00
2.05
2.27
0.95
0.62
0.51
1.10
1.65

0.39
-0.42
0.56
0.75
0.29
0.49
0.41
1.36
4.15
-0.76
0.66
0. 76
1.17
1.28
2.29

0.16
-0.07
-0.01
0.21
0.86
0.39
0.32
0.82
2.32
1.82
0.38
0.70
0.73
1.16
2.11

92.

CHANGh IN SENSITIVE CRUDE MATERIALS PRICES (PP] OF CRUDE MATERIALS LESS AGRICULTURAL
SMOOTHED DATA 1 2 (MONTHLY RATE, P ERCENT)

PRODUCTS) f
AVfc RAGE FOR PERIOD

1948.
. .
1949...
1950.. .
1951...
1952...
1953.. .
1954...
1955. . .
1956.. .
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

1. 99
-0. 59
0. 04
1. 77
-1. 20
0. 42
-1. 31
0. 61
0. 86
0. 91
-1. 12
0. 16
-0. 06
-0. 47
-0. 32
0. 05
0.28

1 72
-0. 92
0 28
1 39
-0.82
0 40
-1 20
0 88
0.83
0 25
-0 27
-0 03
-0 50
-0 12
0 08
0 06
0 14

1. 17
-1. 44
0. 74
0. 82
-0.38
0. 52
-1. 08
1. 39
0. 32
-0. 60
0. 09
0. 49
-1. 04
0. 30
0. 10
-0 03
0 03

0.94
-2.16
1.33
0.35
-0.30
0.42
-0.38
1.39
0.12
-1.14
-0.10
0.83
-1.14
0.66
-0.51
-0.10
0.25

1.32
-2.89
1.84
0.01
-0.17
0.09
0.66
0.69
0.15
-0.77
-0.19
0.59
-0.77
0.79
-0.79
-0.05
0.48

1. 48
-2. 92
2. 50
-0 36
-0. 54
-0. 02
1 22
0. 18
-0 66
0 17
-0 10
0 29
-0 35
0 56
-0 74
-0.09
0 48

1. 44
-2. 25
2. 82
-0. 99
-1. 02
0. 48
0. 85
0. 52
-1. 66
0. 87
0. 32
0. 18
-0. 40
0. 34
-0. 56
-0. 07
0. 38

1. 04
-1. 13
2. 79
-1. 69
-1. 12
0. 59
-0. 12
1. 32
-1. 10
0 65
0 60
0. 13
-0 77
0 34
-0 42
-0 14
0 55

0. 60
0.09
2.63
-1.90
-0.88
-0.17
-0.64
2.11
0.40
-0.59
0. 70
0.16
-0.84
0.41
-0.23
-0.21
0.76

-0.21
0.85
2.51
-1.56
-0.27
-1.38
-0. 07
1.86
1.19
-1.74
1.07
0.24
-0.77
0.44
-0.07
-0.11
0.69

-0.82
1.04
2.42
-1.39
0.07
-1.78
0. 68
0.96
0.94
-2.30
1.31
0. 39
-0.77
-0.06
-0.09
0.09
0.58

-0. 70
0. 56
2. 01
- 1 . 31
0. 42
-1. 56
0. 78
0. 62
0. 91
-1. 94
0. 89
0. 24
-0. 66
-0. 46
0 02
0. 29
0 69

1. 63
-0. 98
0. 35
1. 33
-0. 80
0. 45
-1. 20
0.96
0. 67
0. 19
-0. 43
0. 21
-0. 53
-0. 10
-0. 05
0. 03
0. 15

1.25
-2.66
1.89
0.
-0.34
0.16
0.50
0.75
-0.13
-0.58
-0.13
0.57
-0.75
0.67
-0.68
-0.08
0.40

1.03
-1.10
2.75
-1.53
-1.01
0.30
0.03
1.32
-0.79
0.31
0.54
0.16
-0.67
0.36
-0.40
-0.14
0.56

-0.58
0.82
2.31
-1.42
0.07
-1.57
0.46
1.15
1.01
-1.99
1.09
0.29
-0.73
-0.03
-0.05
0.09
0.65

0.83
-0.98
1.83
-0.40
-0.52
-0.17
-0.05
1.04
0.19
-0.52
0.27
0.31
-0.67
0.23
-0.29
-0.03
0. 44

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...

0. 44
0. 49
-0. 49
0.48
0. 63
0. 39
0 29
0 43
1 29
4 41
-1 15
0 56
0 01
1 05
1 11

-0 12
0 71
-0 67
0 28
0 42
0 68
0 41
0 59
1 14
4 66
-1 53
0 06
-0 41
0.93
1 23

-0
0
-0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
-1
-0
0
0
1

39
93
79
20
49
80
39
72
90
75
37
42
36
62
87

-0.11
0.80
-0.90
0.02
0.82
0.71
0.22
0.58
0.93
5.00
-0.74
0.22
1.32
0.76
2.27

0.54
0. 40
-0.73
-0.35
1.13
0.52
0.37
0.54
1.30
3.61
-0.03
1.43
1.48
1.33
2.24

0
0
-0
-0
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
2

62
21
21
53
22
39
39
43
92
51
67
92
79
71
22

0. 40
0. 27
0. 25
-0. 12
1. 12
0. 24
0. 30
0.47
2. 19
1. 07
0.99
1. 93
0 39
1. 89
2. 32

0
-0
0
0
1
-0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
1

0.26
-0.92
0.20
0.49
1.3 2
-0.22
0.27
0.99
1.92
2.29
0.63
0.88
0.29
1.20
1.63

0.36
-1.12
0.15
0.46
1.13
0.28
0.28
1.05
2.34
1.30
0.87
0.48
0.50
1.05
1.92

0.34
-0.70
0.32
0.59
0.69
0.50
0.11
1.14
3.34
0.37
0.93
0.77
0.49
1.22
2.45

0
-0
0
0
0.
0
0
1
4
-0
0
0
0
1
2

32
32
51
71
36
42
22
26
10
18
87
98
83
36
51

-0. 02
0. 71
-0. 65
0. 32
0. 51
0. 62
0. 36
0. 58
1. 11
4. 61
-1. 35
0. 07
-0. 01
0. 87
1. 40

0.35
0.47
-0.61
-0.29
1.06
0.54
0.33
0.52
1.38
3.37
-0.03
1.19
1.20
1.27
2.24

0.31
-0. 29
0.27
0.27
1.22
-0.04
0.25
0.77
2.01
1.70
0.73
1.44
0.29
1.55
1.98

0.34
-0.71
0.33
0.59
0.73
0.40
0.20
1.15
3.26
0.50
0.89
0.74
0.61
1.21
2.29

0.24
0.04
-0.17
0.22
0.88
0.38
0.29
0.75
1.94
2.54
0.06
0.86
0.52
1.22
1.98

26
21
37
43
21
15
18
84
92
75
58
52
20
56
98

1981...
113 . NET CHANGE IN C O N S U M E R INSTALLMENT CREDIT 3
(ANNUAL RATE, B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

3
1
3
1
1
6
-0
4
4
0
0
4
5
0
2
6
8

40
03
20
61
28
46
71
39
06
85
10
52
18
18
56
59
40

3 .14
1 .32
3 . 40
0 65
1 .78
5.60
0 16
5 .09
4 .57
2 70
-1 87
4 .08
6 .00
-1 .20
3 .13
5 .82
9 .66

3
1
2
-0
1
6
-0
6
3
2
-1
5
3
-0
3
5
8

36
51
87
05
62
82
74
67
90
39
16
42
85
43
11
95
14

3.26
2.52
3.28
-0. 58
2.06
4.08
-0.40
5.84
3.26
2.78
-0. 91
4.69
6.11
-1.78
6.22
7.31
6.61

2.58
3.44
3.92
-0.29
5.72
4.63
0.08
6.30
2.52
2.27
-1.44
5.83
4.66
0.44
4.91
5.72
9.26

1 .86
2 42
4 67
-0 . 26
6 .79
2 98
0 .38
5 .72
2 76
2 81
-0 .98
5 .92
3 .96
0 .04
5 .40
6 .94
7 .58

2
3
7
-0
4
3
0
5
1
3
-0
5
3
0
4
7
6

54
01
15
58
49
65
62
00
96
74
28
84
94
66
93
55
85

2 50
2 60
4 31
1 38
3.26
3 08
0 44
6 24
2 32
1 82
-0 50
8 00
2 74
1 22
4 94
6 .85
7 .63

2.58
2.80
4.31
1.54
4.99
2.89
1.21
5.96
2.32
2.62
-1.37
7.60
2.80
1.24
4.87
7.33
9.77

1.00
4.01
2.17
1.25
6.46
2.53
1.64
4.38
2.71
2.33
0.25
6.74
2.93
2.33
5.75
7.92
6.92

0.98
3.66
-1.10
1.31
5.54
2.50
1.68
3.92
2.78
1.57
2. 08
5.59
2.99
2.62
5.95
6.37
4.61

1 39
3 07
0 78
1 92
6 46
0 65
2 72
4 04
2 86
1 60
3 .67
3 29
0 94
4 .06
6 .68
6 .52
7 .75

3. 30
1 29
3 16
0 74
1 56
6 29
-0.43
5 38
4 18
1 98
-0 98
4 67
5 01
-0 48
2 93
6 12
8 73

2.57
2.79
3.96
-0.38
4.86
3.90
0.02
5.95
2.85
2.62
-1.11
5.48
4.91
-0.43
5.51
6.66
7.82

2.54
2.80
5.26
0. 78
4.25
3.21
0.76
5.73
2.20
2.73
-0.72
7.15
3.16
1.04
4.91
7.24
8.08

1.12
3.58
0.62
1. 49
6.15
1.89
2.01
4.11
2.78
1.83
2.00
5.21
2.29
3.00
6.13
6.94
6.43

2.38
2.62
3.25
0.66
4.20
3.82
0.59
5.30
3.00
2.29
-0.20
5.63
3.84
0.78
4.87
6.74
7.76

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980. ..
1981...

8 69
7 30
3 48
8 38
7 30
6 54
5.74
15 85
25 81
10 13
-0 92
16 00
31 09
32 60
50 57

8 .06
5 .60
0 .52
9 .46
13 .02
4 .93
8 .33
12 .34
24 . 70
12 .31
3 .89
19 .73
32 .38
37 .08
50 .64

7.75
6 42
3 26
8 .39
9 43
4 .42
8 16
15 .68
22 .75
8 .60
-4 .31
16 .54
40 .15
43 .96
40 .20

10.62
5.30
0.73
9.13
12.22
1.96
7.75
18.19
21.41
13.66
-1.03
22.75
37.51
46.00
45.71

10.14
4.74
2.59
8.99
12.84
4.31
9.08
15.60
21.04
14.87
-0.55
20.60
34.37
49.96
37.99

7 .93
4 .87
3 .79
9 .24
10 .86
6 .14
5 .62
15 .28
20 .08
14 .75
4 .15
18 .62
33 .37
51 .37
31 .33

7
6
3
9
8
4
5
10
20
12
16
20
29
43
33

56
71
00
97
40
88
20
56
04
74
28
62
56
07
79

8 .16
5 .87
4 .84
7 .58
8 .12
5 .59
10 .68
13 .85
16 .32
14 .26
11 .92
21 .18
35 .36
36 .90
32 .77

8.27
3.41
5.64
9.08
10.84
5.40
12.89
13.91
15.52
9.42
12.IB
24.20
32.84
39.40
48.10

6.77
4.75
3.42
11.14
8.02
3.46
14.15
16.96
22.64
2.56
13.o;
23.56
37.3£
33.56
36.4C

6.77
4.73
5.99
9.82
7.72
-0.32
16.31
17.50
17.86
-1.81
14.33
21.55
38.21
43.72
32.33

6 .68
4 .64
7 .01
10 .32
3 .26
5 .96
15 .79
22 .98
14 .05
-1 .94
18 .00
26 .87
38 . 47
45 .20
24 .40

8 17
6 44
2 42
8 .74
9 .92
5 .30
7 41
14 .62
24 .42
10 .35
-0 .45
17 .42
34 .54
37 .88
47.14

9.56
4.97
2.37
9.12
11.97
4.14
7.48
16.36
20.84
14.43
0.86
20.66
35.08
49.11
38.34

8.00
5.33
4.49
8.88
9.12
5.29
9.59
12.77
17.29
12.14
13.46
22.00
32.59
39.79
38.22

6.74
4.71
5.47
10.43
6.33
3.04
15.42
19.15
18.18
-0.40
15.12
23.99
38.02
40.83
31.04

8.12
5.36
3.69
9.29
9.34
4.44
9.98
15.72
20.18
9.13
7.25
21.02
35.06
41.90
38.69

This series contains revisions beginning with 1976. This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal
month of the span. 3 This series contains revisions beginning with 1975.




(APRIL 1981)

97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

16. CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

Annual
AVERAGE

Year

1 Q

II Q

III Q

IV Q

18. CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES IN 1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

Annual
AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

22.7
20.6
19.0
25.3
20.7
22.4
19.6
26.3
27.6
28.4
20.5
28.9
29.6
24.7
30.4
31.5
38.2

23.9
18.2
22.7
21.6
19.6
22.4
20.2
26.7
28.1
27.3
20.9
31.3
27.4
26.0
30.4
33.2
38.1

23.5
18.9
27.7
19.7
19.5
21.8
21.4
27.5
26.5
26.7
23.3
28.1
26.4
27.5
31.3
34.0
39.1

22.7
18.5
30.4
21.1
21.4
17.1
23.0
28.5
28.0
24.4
26.7
27.4
25.2
29.6
32.2
34.8
38.7

23.2
19.0
25.0
21.9
20.2
20.9
21.1
27.2
27.6
26.7
22.9
28.9
27.1
26.9
31.1
33.4
38.5

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

44.3
38.4
35.0
42.8
34.2
36.4
31.3
42.0
42.1
34.0
29.5
40.6
41.0
34.3
41.8
42.8
51.3

45.9
33.5
41.8
36.3
32.1
36.1
32.2
42.5
42.6
39.3
29.9
43.8
37.9
36.0
41.6
45.0
51.1

43.8
34.9
49.7
33.0
32.1
35.0
34.2
43.1
39.6
38.3
33.3
39.1
36.5
37.9
42.8
46.0
52.3

41.9
34.2
53.4
34.9
34.9
27.4
36.7
44.3
41.2
34.8
37.8
38.2
35.0
40.8
43.8
47.0
51.7

44.0
35.2
45.0
36.8
33.3
33.7
33.6
43.0
41.4
36.6
32.6
40.4
37.6
37.3
42.5
45.2
51.6

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

44.2
49.8
46.1
48.1
49.6
41.8
45.7
56.2
73.8
82.4
69.4
100.7
114.1
125.4
164.6

45.9
49.8
46.1
49.3
48.0
41.6
47.3
56.6
76.8
85.0
73.2
102.3
118.6
137.2
164.6

46.4
49.4
47.2
49.5
46.2
42.1
50.8
59.0
76.6
90.9
88.3
103.5
123.3
142.9
173.6

48.9
48.5
49.4
50.7
45.0
39.6
52.3
63.9
79.0
82.2
95.2
103.4
124.0
155.8
168.2

46.3
49.4
47.2
49.4
47.2
41.3
49.0
58.9
76.6
85.1
81.5
102.5
120.0
140.3
167.8

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

58.7
64.8
58.0
58.5
57.8
46.3
48.3
56.9
72.4
75.2
55.2
75.1
81.3
83.6
101.0

60.8
64.2
57.7
59.2
55.2
45.5
49.3
57.0
74.1
75.0
57.0
75.8
83.2
89.6
98.9

61.1
63.3
58.6
58.9
52.5
45.5
52.4
58.8
72.8
77.2
67.5
75.7
85.1
91.1
101.8

64.2
61.4
60.7
59.7
50.5
42.3
53.5
63.6
73.9
67.1
71.7
74.8
84.0
97.9
96.7

61.2
63.4
58.7
59.1
54.0
44.9
50.9
59.0
43.3
43.6
62.9
75.4
83.4
90.6
99.6

22. RATIO OF PROFITS (AFTER TAXES) TO TOTAL CORPORATE
DOMESTIC INCOME
(PERCENT)

AVERAGE

30. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, CHANGE IN BUSINESS
INVENTORIES, IN 1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BIL. DOL.)

AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

18.6
16.3
15.2
16.1
12.1
12.1
10.9
13.4
12.7
12.2
9.3
11.9
11.1
9.3
10.5
10.1
11.4

19.1
14.9
17.1
13.2
11.6
12.0
11.2
13.2
12.8
11.6
9.5
12.4
10.3
9.7
10.2
10.5
11.3

18.5
15.4
19.3
11.8
11.4
11.8
11.9
13.2
11.9
11.3
10.3
11.2
10.0
10.0
10.4
10.6
11.3

17.5
15.8
20.1
12.4
11.8
9.5
12.2
13.4
12.4
10.6
11.4
10.7
9.6
10.5
10.4
10.7
11.1

18.4
15.6
17.9
13.4
11.7
11.4
11.6
13.3
12.4
11.4
10.1
11.6
10.2
9.9
10.4
10.5
11.3

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

4.1
-0.3
4.4
13.4
7.3
3.9
-3.4
5.9
7.5
2.5
-6.8
5.5
12.7
-4.1
10.4
7.4
6.9

5.6
-7.1
7.7
19.9
-2.7
5.1
-4.1
8.0
5.5
2.9
-6.2
12.6
3.3
1.8
8.1
7.9
7.4

6.9
-2.5
8.0
14.6
5.4
1.9
-2.7
7.8
4.9
3.7
0.3
1.4
3.4
6.5
7.5
8.0
5.5

5.3
-7.7
22.1
7.0
7.2
-5.0
1.5
9.2
5.4
-3.0
5.3
8.7
-5.3
7.7
5.3
6.7
8.6

5.5
-4.4
10.6
13.7
4.3
1.5
-2.2
7.7
5.8
1.5
-1.8
7.0
3.5
3.0
7.8
7.5
7.1

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

12.2
12.6
10.9
10.5
9.6
7.5
7.8
8.7
10.0
9.6
8.1
10.7
11.0
10.6
11.9

12.4
12.4
10.9
10.4
9.1
7.3
7.9
8.6
10.1
9.9
8.6
10.6
11.0
11.4
11.5

12.4
12.1
10.9
10.1
8.5
7.3
8.5
8.7
9.5
10.8
10.1
10.6
11.0
11.3
11.4

12.8
11.6
11.2
10.1
8.2
7.0
8.5
9.1
9.6
9.7
10.3
10.4
11.0
11.6
11.1

12.4
12.2
11.0
10.3
8.8
7.3
8.2
8.8
9.8
10.0
9.3
10.6
11.0
11.2
11.5

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

14.8
15.6
14.5
5.4
11.7
2.1
11.2
6.3
16.0
13.2
-14.3
10.0
12.4
17.7
15.4

11.3
17.1
7.3
12.2
11.8
5.0
10.4
12.1
15.2
12.6
-11.3
11.3
12.4
16.0
18.4

11.0
13.6
11.8
9.8
13.7
6.5
7.0
12.8
13.8
7.7
1.0
7.3
16.3
11.5
7.6

10.0
20.8
15.2
8.6
7.0
1.4
3.6
9.7
23.7
12.9
-2.3
2.4
8.3
10.6
-0.7

11.8
16.8
12.2
9.0
11.1
3.8
8.1
10.2
17.2
11.6
-6.7
7.8
12.3
14.0
10.2

34. NET CASH FLOW, CORPORATE, IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

35. NET CASH FLOW, CORPORATE, IN 19 72 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

22.2
21.1
19.3
26.7
23.8
26.3
24.6
32.9
35.4
36.8
31.1
40.1
41.6
37.8
46.3
47.9
55.5

24.0
18.9
23.0
23.2
22.4
26.1
26.2
33.8
36.0
36.1
31.2
42.8
39.7
39.5
46.1
50.1
55.2

23.f
19.£
27.'
21.i
22.'
26.:
27..>
35.]L
34..>
36.]L
34.]L
39.'I
38.{i
40.{I
47.'
51.]L
56.^I

22.7
19.4
30.1
23.5
24.8
22.4
29.6
36.1
35.8
34.6
38.1
39.2
37.9
42.7
48.5
52.2
56.0

23.2
19.8
25.0
23.7
23.3
25.3
26.9
34.3
35.5
36.1
33.7
40.4
39.5
40.2
47.1
50.3
55.8

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

44.9
40.6
36.9
46.2
39.9
43.5
40.1
53.4
53.9
45.2
43.4
55.1
56.6
51.5
63.0
64.8
74.8

47.8
36.1
43.5
39.8
37.4
42.9
42.7
54.6
54.1
50.9
43.5
58.6
54.0
53.8
62.7
67.9
74.2

45.3
37.9
50.8
36.9
38.0
42.8
44.7
55.1
50.7
50.5
47.4
53.6
52.7
55.6
64.4
69.2
75.7

43.4
37.0
54.0
39.4
41.1
36.4
47.8
56.1
51.7
48.1
52.7
53.3
51.6
58.1
65.8
70.5
74.9

45.3
37.9
46.3
40.6
39.1
41.4
43.8
54.8
52.6
48.7
46.7
55.2
53.7
54.7
64.0
68.1
74.9

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

62.1
69.1
68.9
73.4
78.4
74.5
81.6
97.2
118.9
131.8
125.5
159.6
178.5
202.1
247.4

64.0
70.4
69.3
75.0
77.9
75.2
84.6
101.0
123.3
135.8
131.5
159.9
188.2
215.3
252.0

65.()
71.]L
71..
75..>
77. I
76. 5
89. 3
102. 5
123. 3
143. 1
147.1J
161. J
196. 3
221. 3
266. L

67.3
71.7
75.1
77.7
76.7
75.3
92.2
108.8
127.6
136.1
155.9
164.4
198.7
235.7
262.9

64.6
70.5
71.2
75.4
77.5
75.4
86.9
102.4
123.3
136.8
140.2
161.4
190.4
218.5
257.1

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

82.9
90.4
87.2
89.5
91.8
82.8
85.9
98.3
117.0
121.7
98.0
116.6
123.5
130.9
147.9

85.3
91.3
87.0
90.6
90.2
82.6
88.1
101.5
119.7
120.7
100.3
115.7
128.8
136.9
147.4

86.1
91.5
88.6
90.2
87.9
83.0
92.0
102.1
117.7
121.8
111.1
115.3
132.1
137.0
152.5

88.6
91.1
92.4
91.7
86.0
80.2
93.9
108.0
120.1
110.0
115.1
115.5
130.9
143.9
148.6

85.7
91.1
88.8
90.5
89.0
82.1
90.0
102.5
118.7
118.5
106.1
115.8
128.8
137.2
149.1

NOTE:

These series contain revisions beginning with the first year shown.




(APRIL 1981)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

IQ
49.

II Q

III Q

IV Q

Annual

Year
55.

VALUE OP GOODS OUTPUT IN 1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AUTOMOBILES
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

Annual
AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

241.4
243.4
250.1
275.4
289.1
306.2
294.3
304.4
321.8
324.6
302.9
327.1
342.9
325.3
358.5
366.5
387.2

243.5
239.4
255.7
281.4
286.4
310.2
287.0
315.1
321.0
322.8
303.6
337.5
338.3
335.1
360.1
369.4
392.6

245.6
241.6
266.8
288.8
290.9
307.6
290.4
321.6
319.4
325.0
314.8
330.0
336.5
341.0
363.4
374.0
396.5

248.7
236.6
273.4
289.3
302.0
302.9
298.9
325.9
321.4
314.4
325.1
335.5
325.6
350.5
363.3
378.9
398.8

244.8
240.3
261.5
283.7
292.1
306.8
292.7
316.7
320.9
321.7
311.6
332.5
335.8
338.0
361.3
372.2
393.8

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

6.0
7.3
10.4
12.1
9.2
12.3
11.1
14.2
14.0
15.4
12.3
15.3
16.4
13.6
17.0
19.8
21.7

5.5
9.3
10.9
10.3
9.5
12.2
11.6
16.0
13.2
15.0
12.0
16.4
16.9
14.2
18.0
20.6
21.9

6.3
9.6
13.2
9.3
7.5
12.0
10.8
16.9
12.9
14.1
11.9
17.1
17.1
14.9
17.7
20.6
23.0

6.9
9.6
12.3
8.8
10.9
11.5
11.8
15.7
14.1
14.4
12.7
14.8
16.0
16.3
19.2
21.1
20.6

6.2
9.0
11.7
10.1
9.3
12.0
11.3
15.7
13.5
14.7
12.2
15.9
16.6
14.8
18.0
20.5
21.8

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

412.8
451.6
459.5
471.4
495.6
487.2
497.3
508.4
571.0
567.6
531.6
583.1
617.4
635.4
681.8

415.5
453.3
461.6
482.9
496.8
489.2
494.1
526.3
569.3
569.2
541.9
588.7
624.8
655.1
669.1

423.9
456.8
464.5
489.7
498.3
492.7
497.2
536.0
569.3
565.9
560.5
590.7
635.9
659.5
673.6

438.2
464.0
468.0
488.3
493.2
478.4
500.3
547.8
582.2
553.3
562.9
592.9
637.2
673.5
673.3

422.6
456.4
463.4
483.1
496.0
486.9
497.2
529.6
573.0
564.0
549.2
588.9
628.8
655.9
674.5

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

25.6
27.0
22.9
28.0
30.7
27.8
32.8
36.1
44.2
34.2
34.6
48.5
57.9
57.8
69.2

24.8
24.0
25.5
28.5
30.0
29.0
33.7
37.4
43.0
34.4
34.8
49.4
57.4
65.1
62.9

25.4
24.8
25.0
30.6
30.5
29.0
34.3
38.6
41.0
38.0
40.5
49.9
57.8
64.2
65.0

25.4
24.6
24.6
30.1
30.0
23.3
35.7
40.9
36.8
32.6
43.0
52.1
58.4
66.6
64.2

25.3
25.1
24.5
29.3
30.3
27.3
34.1
38.2
41.2
34.8
38.2
50.0
57.9
63.4
65.3

64.

COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES AS PERCENT
OF NATIONAL INCOME
(PERCENT)

AVERAGE

68. LABOR COST (CURRENT DOLLARS) PER UNIT OF REAL GROSS
DOMESTIC PRODUCT, NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS
(DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

64.9
65.7
65.8
65.6
67.6
68.4
69.8
67.7
69.3
70.0
71.0
69.5
70.2
71.5
70.2
70.4
69.8

63.4
66.3
65.5
66.1
67.9
69.0
69.6
67.9
69.6
70.1
70.8
69.0
71.0
70.9
70.6
70.1
70.0

64.4
65.9
64.7
66.2
67.9
69.4
69.0
68.2
69.9
70.1
70.3
70.2
71.2
70.7
70.5
70.1
70.1

64.6
66.6
64.8
66.1
68.3
70.6
68.5
68.4
70.2
70.7
69.6
70.3
71.5
70.3
70.2
70.2
70.4

64.3
66.1
65.2
66.0
67.9
69.4
69.2
68.0
69.8
70.2
70.4
69.8
71.0
70.8
70.4
70.2
70.1

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

0.378
0.388
0.384
0.401
0.422
0.435
0.451
0.435
0.458
0.479
0.502
0.490
0.499
0.511
0.499
0.499
0.492

0.375
0.389
0.380
0.409
0.428
0.438
0.449
0.435
0.464
0.481
0.500
0.488
0.508
0.506
0.504
0.493
0.496

0.389
0.384
0.382
0.409
0.433
0.440
0.444
0.440
0.471
0.486
0.498
0.498
0.505
0.503
0.500
0.491
0.498

0.387
0.390
0.387
0.412
0.435
0.451
0.442
0.446
0.477
0.492
0.491
0.499
0.508
0.497
0.497
0.494
0.501

0.382
0.388
0.383
0.408
0.430
0.441
0.446
0.439
0.467
0.484
0.497
0.494
0.505
0.504
0.500
0.494
0.497

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

69.4
69.0
71.1
71.7
72.4
75.5
74.8
74.5
73.5
74.8
76.6
74.4
74.8
75.3
74.1

69.1
69.8
71.2
71.7
73.1
75.3
74.9
74.9
73.9
75.2
75.5
75.1
74.6
74.5
74.5

69.3
70.4
71.2
72.0
73.8
75.4
75.0
74.4
73.9
76.0
74.3
75.4
74.0
74.3
74.3

69.3
70.5
71.3
72.3
74.7
75.8
74.6
74.1
73.8
76.3
74.3
75.7
74.6
73.8
74.7

69.3
69.9
71.2
71.9
73.5
75.5
74.8
74.5
73.8
75.6
75.2
75.2
74.5
74.5
74.4

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

0.496
0.504
0.535
0.550
0.577
0.624
0.635
0.653
0.669
0.743
0.842
0.853
0.906
0.970
1.052

0.495
0.514
0.535
0.555
0.588
0.628
0.642
0.658
0.683
0.773
0.832
0.870
0.919
0.982
1.079

0.498
0.519
0.540
0.559
0.598
0.631
0.644
0.661
0.697
0.804
0.829
0.884
0.926
1.004
1.104

0.497
0.525
0.540
0.566
0.611
0.641
0.645
0.665
0.716
0.825
0.844
0.903
0.944
1.025
1.135

0.497
0.515
0.538
0.558
0.594
0.631
0.641
0.659
0.692
0.786
0.837
0.878
0.924
0.996
1.092

79.

CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES WITH IVA AND CCADJ IN
CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

80.

CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES WITH IVA AND CCADJ IN
1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

16.1
18.1
14.7
11.9
17.3
17.7
16.2
22.9
22.3
22.1
17.6
25.1
26.6
23.2
32.2
34.4
41.1

17.2
17.1
15.6
16.0
16.1
16.8
16.8
23.8
21.7
22.4
17.9
27.9
24.7
25.6
31.7
36.0
41.0

16.5
18.0
16.4
18.6
15.7
16.0
17.5
23.8
21.7
22.3
19.8
25.0
24.9
26.4
32.3
36.5
41.4

18.3
14.9
17.5
18.0
17.7
13.7
19.5
23.7
21.0
20.5
22.5
25.9
23.7
28.0
34.4
36.8
41.2

17.0
17.0
16.0
16.1
16.7
16.0
17.5
23.6
21.7
21.8
19.4
26.0
25.0
25.8
32.6
35.9
41.2

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

31.0
33.6
27.0
20.1
28.7
28.7
25.8
36.5
34.3
32.3
25.5
35.2
36.8
32.1
44.2
46.6
55.2

32.6
31.3
28.5
26.8
26.4
27.0
26.9
37.7
33.0
32.4
25.7
39.2
34.2
35.5
43.4
48.9
55.1

30.4
33.3
29.1
31.3
25.7
25.4
27.9
37.3
32.6
32.0
28.3
35.0
34.5
36.4
44.2
49.3
55.3

33.6
27.5
30.5
29.9
28.9
21.9
31.1
36.8
31.1
29.2
31.7
36.0
32.7
38.6
47.0
49.6
55.0

31.9
31.4
28.8
27.0
27.4
25.8
27.9
37.1
32.8
31.5
27.8
36.4
34.6
35.6
44.7
48.6
55.2

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

47.5
52.5
49.5
47.8
49.0
37.0
43.3
53.2
62.1
52.2
46.0
77.5
82.0
92.4
113.4

48.9
51.1
49.0
50.7
46.9
39.2
43.6
53.2
57.1
47.2
55.6
73.0
90.9
101.9
110.2

49.2
50.0
49.7
50.8
45.7
37.8
46.4
55.5
58.2
35.0
65.6
73.6
102.4
105.5
111.1

50.7
52.1
51.4
50.6
40.7
34.9
49.4
57.8
59.7
38.8
72.3
72.9
93.4
110.4
102.2

49.1
51.4
49.9
50.0
45.6
37.2
45.7
54.9
59.3
43.3
59.9
74.2
92.2
102.6
109.2

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

63.0
68.3
62.5
58.1
57.1
40.9
45.7
53.8
60.9
47.4
36.9
58.1
58.8
62.2
70.1

65.0
66.0
61.2
61.0
53.9
43.0
45.3
53.5
55.0
41.4
43.7
54.5
64.0
67.0
66.9

64.9
63.9
61.8
60.4
51.9
40.9
47.9
55.5
55.0
29.7
50.6
54.3
71.0
67.8
65.7

66.6
66.2
63.1
59.6
45.5
37.2
50.5
57.2
55.6
32.1
54.8
53.1
63.7
69.6
59.4

64.9
66.1
62.2
59.8
52.1
40.5
47.4
55.0
56.6
37.6
46.5
55.0
64.4
66.6
65.5

NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with the first year shown.




(APRIL 1981)

99

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

81. RATIO OF PROFITS AFTER TAXES WITH IVA AND CCADJ TO
TOTAL CORPORATE DOMESTIC INCOME
(PERCENT)

Annual

Year

1 Q

II Q

III Q

IV Q

86. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN 1972
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

Annual
AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

12.9
14.2
11.6
7.0
10.0
9.3
8.9
11.5
10.0
9.3
7.8
10.2
9.8
8.6
11.2
11.1
12.3

13.4
13.8
11.5
9.5
9.4
8.7
9.2
11.6
9.6
9.2
8.0
10.9
9.1
9.5
10.7
11.5
12.2

12.6
14.6
11.0
11.1
8.9
8.3
9.5
11.3
9.5
9.2
8.6
9.8
9.4
9.5
10.8
11.5
12.1

13.9
12.6
11.1
10.5
9.6
7.4
10.1
10.9
8.9
8.7
9.4
10.0
8.9
9.9
11.3
11.3
11.9

13.2
13.8
11.3
9.5
9.5
8.4
9.4
11.3
9.5
9.1
8.4
10.2
9.3
9.4
11.0
11.4
12.1

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

51.6
49.3
44.8
51.8
53.1
55.6
55.3
56.6
64.3
66.1
61.5
61.1
67.4
65.2
70.0
71.8
79.3

50.4
46.8
48.9
53.0
53.6
55.9
54.8
60.2
65.3
65.9
58.8
63.1
67.8
66.3
72.2
74.1
81.6

50.4
44.4
53.0
53.9
48.9
57.0
56.0
63.2
66.2
67.3
57.6
65.0
66.2
66.5
73.3
76.1
83.9

51.9
43.5
53.3
52.8
52.8
56.7
55.6
65.2
65.7
65.7
59.3
65.1
66.3
68.6
72.5
78.2
86.0

51.1
46.0
50.0
52.9
52.1
56.3
55.4
61.3
65.4
66.2
59.3
63.6
66.9
66.7
72.0
75.1
82.7

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

13.2
13.3
11.8
10.4
9.5
6.4
7.3
8.2
8.1
5.1
4.8
7.9
7.4
7.3
7.5

13.3
12.7
11.6
10.7
8.8
6.8
7.1
8.0
7.0
4.4
6.1
7.1
8.0
8.0
6.9

13.2
12.2
11.5
10.4
8.4
6.5
7.6
8.1
6.6
2.7
7.1
7.0
8.8
7.9
6.3

13.3
12.5
11.6
10.1
7.3
6.1
7.9
8.1
6.7
3.5
7.3
6.8
7.9
7.6
5.7

13.2
12.7
11.6
10.4
8.5
6.4
7.5
8.1
7.1
3.9
6.3
7.2
8.0
7.7
6.6

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

91.7
106.7
105.8
109.9
115.1
115.4
110.8
117.3
132.8
140.3
120.7
122.0
134.5
145.7
161.4

95.6
108.1
105.5
107.4
116.2
115.0
112.1
119.1
138.3
138.2
117.8
124.1
139.8
153.5
161.3

98.9
109.0
104.8
108.6
118.5
114.7
112.2
120.4
140.5
135.2
119.2
127.4
141.6
155.0
166.4

103.4
108.2
106.3
112.3
117.4
110.3
113.6
127.2
140.7
129.1
119.6
128.9
146.3
159.4
164.1

97.4
108.0
105.6
109.5
116.8
113.8
112.2
121.0
138.1
135.7
119.3
125.6
140.6
153.4
163.3

87. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT, STRUCTURES, IN 1972
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

88. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT, PRODUCERS1 DURABLE
EQUIPMENT, IN 1972 DOLLARS
(ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL. )

AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

17.4
18.7
18.0
20.4
20.2
22.0
23.5
24.5
27.3
28.5
27.9
26.3
29.3
30.6
30.4
30.6
32.8

18.3
18.3
18.7
21.1
20.4
22.5
23.7
25.0
28.4
28.5
26.9
27.2
29.0
30.1
31.6
32.1
34.3

18.9
17.5
19.7
21.0
20.6
22.6
23.7
25.9
28.8
28.4
26.2
28.0
29.2
30.1
32.7
32.3
35.1

19.1
17.1
20.4
20.1
21.4
23.1
23.7
26.4
28.8
28.3
26.4
27.9
30.6
29.9
31.9
32.8
35.6

18.4
17.9
19.2
20.7
20.6
22.6
23.6
25.4
28.3
28.4
26.8
27.4
29.5
30.2
31.6
31.9
34.4

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

34.2
30.6
26.9
31.4
32.9
33.6
31.8
32.1
36.9
37.6
33.7
34.8
38.1
34.6
39.6
41.2
46.5

32.1
28.5
30.1
31.9
33.2
33.4
31.1
35.1
36.9
37.4
31.9
35.9
38.8
36.2
40.6
42.1
47.4

31.5
26.9
33.3
32.9
28.3
34.4
32.3
37.3
37.4
38.9
31.4
37.1
37.0
36.5
40.6
43.9
48.9

32.7
26.5
33.0
32.7
31.4
33.6
31.8
38.8
37.0
37.3
32.9
37.2
35.7
38.6
40.5
45.5
50.4

32.6
28.1
30.8
32.2
31.5
33.7
31.8
35.9
37.0
37.8
32.5
36.2
37.4
36.5
40.4
43.1
48.3

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

37.6
43.8
42.8
43.0
44.1
44.2
43.2
43.5
45.9
46.6
38.6
39.2
38.9
42.1
45.8

40.7
43.2
41.7
42.4
44.5
44.3
42.9
43.9
47.3
45.2
37.6
39.4
40.3
44.7
48.0

40.9
44.1
41.9
42.1
45.9
43.9
43.0
44.0
48.3
41.8
38.3
39.8
41.5
45.3
49.4

43.4
42.7
41.5
43.6
45.4
43.3
42.3
45.2
47.9
40.8
38.5
39.5
41.4
46.3
50.7

40.6
43.4
42.0
42.8
45.0
43.9
42.8
44.1
47.4
43.6
38.3
39.5
40.5
44.6
48.5

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

54.1
62.9
63.0
66.9
71.1
71.1
67.7
73.8
86.8
93.6
82.2
82.8
95.7
103.6
115.6

55.0
64.9
63.8
65.1
71.7
70.7
69.2
75.1
90.9
93.0
80.2
84.6
99.5
108.9
113.2

58.0
64.9
62.9
66.4
72.6
70.8
69.2
76.3
92.1
93.5
80.9
87.7
100.0
109.7
117.0

60.0
65.5
64.9
68.7
72.0
67.0
71.3
82.1
92.9
88.2
81.1
89.4
105.0
113.1
113.5

56.8
64.5
63.6
66.8
71.8
69.9
69.3
76.9
90.7
92.1
81.1
86.1
100.0
108.8
114.8

89. RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN 1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

107. RATIO, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT TO MONEY SUPPLY Ml-B
(RATIO)

AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960.
1961
1962
1963
1964

25.4
22.3
30.3
31.4
26.0
28.0
27.3
35.2
32.1
29.9
28.2
37.1
37.3
32.9
36.4
39.5
45.6

26.9
22.0
33.2
27.1
26.5
28.2
29.0
35.7
31.9
29.2
28.2
38.4
34.1
33.1
38.0
42.6
43.4

26.0
23.9
35.0
25.3
26.2
27.1
30.8
34.9
31.2
28.9
30.2
37.6
32.9
34.9
38.3
43.1
42.1

24.1
26.9
33.3
25.5
27.6
26.9
32.7
33.3
30.7
29.0
33.5
36.4
32.7
36.3
38.2
44.7
41.4

25.6
23.8
33.0
27.3
26.6
27.5
29.9
34.8
31.5
29.2
30.0
37.4
34.2
34.3
37.7
42.5
43.1

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

.254
.388
.435
.789
.821
.924
.863
..963
.104
.278
.272
.410
.610
.574
.780
5.888
t .029

2.341
2.351
2.485
2.830
2.802
2.932
2.855
3.008
3.139
3.293
3.264
3.479
3.611
3.621
3.815
3.909
4.056

2.402
2.377
2.616
2.853
2.818
2.919
2.863
3.060
3.175
3.344
3.328
3.441
3.588
3.663
3.860
3.944
4.045

2.424
2.358
2.694
2.836
2.887
2.875
2.900
3.102
3.225
3.323
3.384
3.513
3.562
3.727
3.875
3.974
4.032

2.355
2.368
2.558
2.827
2.832
2.912
2.870
3.033
3.161
3.310
3.312
3.461
3.593
3.646
3.832
3.929
4.040

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

42.9
42.4
32.3
41.9
45.6
40.6
47.8
62.4
66.9
52.8
39.4
49.4
56.4
61.5
60.8

43.6
39.8
36.1
43.0
45.0
38.4
52.6
63.4
63.7
50.1
40.3
50.3
61.4
63.3
59.1

42.5
37.7
38.4
43.3
43.2
40.4
56.0
63.7
61.1
47.4
43.1
49.9
62.8
62.8
58.6

41.9
33.0
41.5
44.0
40.5
44.5
58.2
65.7
57.4
42.4
45.9
55.0
61.9
61.9
58.1

42.7
38.2
37.1
43.1
43.6
41.0
53.7
63.8
62.3
48.2
42.2
51.2
60.6
62.4
59.1

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

1.126
.324
.479
1.523
1.592
1.707
iU804
1.893
>.067
).2O1
>.348
5.720
3.881
5.033
5.469

4.180
4.343
4.465
4.581
4.631
4.721
4.780
4.929
5.100
5.289
5.401
5.721
5.954
6.182
6.397

4.221
4.420
4.459
4.585
4.729
4.752
4.789
4.936
5.159
5.351
5.521
5.767
6.033
6.243
6.430

4.272
4.492
4.489
4.570
4.704
4.706
4.837
4.972
5.247
5.365
5.627
5.802
6.021
6.357
6.487

4.200
4.395
4.473
4.565
4.664
4.722
4.802
4.932
5.143
5.302
5.474
5.752
5.972
6.204
6.446

NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with the first year shown.




100

(APRIL 1981)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

220. NATIONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

Year

Annual

224.
AVERAGE

IQ

II Q

HI Q

IV Q

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

Annual
AVERAGE

1948 ...
1949. ..
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961.
. .
1962...
1963...
1964...

211. 5
218.1
219.1
265.9
282.7
303.0
297.1
319.7
342.3
363.0
357.5
392.7
416.5
414.8
453.4
476.2
511.9

219 .1
213.0
229.4
272.4
283.1
305.2
297.3
328.2
347.3
365.1
358.3
405.9
416.3
424.0
459.5
485.2
520.8

223.5
213.2
244.8
276.9
288.3
303.8
300.8
334.1
350.3
368.9
369.1
400.4
416.3
432.1
464.3
492.4
530.4

225 4
210.4
256.8
281.5
297.9
296.5
309.0
340.4
357.0
363.3
382.0
404.2
413.6
444.1
470.7
500.2
536.6

219 9
213.6
237.6
274.1
287.9
302.1
301.1
330.5
349.4
365.2
366.9
400.8
415.7
428.8
462.0
488.5
524.9

1948....
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
•1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

179.1
188.1
201.7
220.4
231.1
248.8
255.0
265.8
285.9
303.7
312.4
331.7
348.3
357.2
380.3
397.3
426.1

186.6
187.4
201.2
225.5
233.9
253.0
254.3
272.1
290.4
307.4
314.5
339.0
352.3
362.5
385.6
402.0
438.6

193.1
187.2
208.6
227.3
240.3
253.4
256.8
278.3
294.3
311.8
322.0
339.6
353.5
368.0
388.7
408.3
445.7

193.1
188.8
214.3
230.5
245.3
253.7
261.9
282.7
300.6
311.9
327.1
343.5
353.9
375.3
392.5
416.0
451.9

188.0
187.9
206.6
226.0
237.7
252.2
257.1
275.0
292.9
308.6
319.0
338.4
352.0
365.8
386.8
405.9
440.6

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975.
. .
1976
1977...
1978...
1979
1980...
1981...

553.8
613.3
647.2
696.9
761.5
798.1
849.4
930.7
1052.3
1133.1
1180.4
134 6 0
1473.8
1644.6
190 3 6

566.2
622.6
653.8
715.6
773.9
808.8
863.9
946.1
1071.4
1155.1
1210.9
1363 9
1523.8
1720.7
19 32 0

576.5
633.0
666.5
731.6
788.5
818.6
876.9
971.2
1094.9
1170.7
1264.2
1388 6
1576.0
1771.7
198 6 2

593.2
643.4
681.5
746.1
793.4
817.3
895.9
1006.7
1126.1
1184.0
1302.0
1418 4
1612.4
1844.6
2031 3

572.4
628.1
662. 2
722.5
779.3
810.7
871.5
963.6
1086.2
1160.7
1239.4
1379 2
1546.5
1745.4
1963 3

1965
1966
1967...
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980....
1981

458.8
502.2
535 3
575.8
616.6
671.5
732.7
782.2
878.9
963.9
1035.2
1163 7
1255.2
1398.0
1580 2

468.0
507.8
543 i
591.0
630.2
692.4
749.3
794.5
903.5
988.6
1105.2
1180 8
1291.0
1440.7
1612 8

482.7
518.1
552. 0
598.1
649.1
705.8
757.6
815.6
925.3
1012.7
1109.4
1203 3
1332.1
1482.1
1663 8

493.7
526.7
561. 3
608.8
659.9
711.5
767.4
849.0
950.3
1028.1
1134.5
1229.6
1367.8
1531.0
1710.1

475.8
513.7
547. 9
593.4
638.9
695.3
751.8
810.3
914.5
998.3
1096.1
1194.4
1311.5
1462.9
1641.7

227.

225. DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 19 72 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

PEF CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 19 72 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

1948.
. .
1949...
1950...
1951.
..
1952.
..
1953...
1954.
. .
1955.
. .
1956. . .
1957.
..
1958.
. .
1959.. .
1960.
..
1961.
. .
1962...
1963.
. .
1964.. .

324.8
336.2
361.5
365.7
375.1
395.5
399.8
414.8
441.0
452.7
452.2
474.4
488.2
493 .6
519.4
533. 5
563.5

334.6
336.2
359.4
373.7
379.0
401.2
397.5
423.7
444.5
455.5
454.9
482.2
490.9
500.6
524.1
538.7
579.5

341.2
336.5
362.2
375.6
387.3
399.7
403.9
430.8
446.9
457.7
464.7
479.2
490.9
505. 8
526.7
544.6
586.7

342.7
338.2
368.2
375.6
391.2
400.1
411.7
437.8
452.5
456.2
471.0
483.0
489.0
515.0
529.2
552. 5
593.5

335.8
336.8
362.8
372.6
383.2
399.1
403.2
426.8
446.2
455.5
460.7
479.7
489.7
503.8
524.9
542.3
580.8

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954...
1955 ..
1956 . .
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961
1962...
1963....
1964...

2,228
2,267
2,396
2,385
2,404
2,493
2 477
2 525
2 638
2,660
2,612
2,683
2,717
2 703
2,799
2,833
2,951

2,286
2,258
2,374
2,427
2,420
2,520
2,453
2, 569
2 648
2,665
2,617
2,717
2,722
2 731
2,815
2, 852
3,025

2,322
2,251
2,382
2,428
2,462
2,499
2, 481
2, 600
2 650
2,666
2,662
2,688
2,710
2 747
2,818
2, 872
3,052

2,321
2,251
2,411
2,417
2,475
2,490
2, 517
2, 630
2 670
2,645
2,686
2,698
2,688
2, 785
2,820
2,902
3,076

2,290
2,257
2,392
2,415
2,441
2,501
2,483
2,582
2 653
2,660
2,645
2,697
2,709
2,742
2,813
2,865
3,026

1965...
1966...
1967.
..
1968...
1969...
1970.. .
1971.. .
1972...
1973...
1974.
..
1975...
1976. . .
1977.
. .
1978.. .
1979...
1980.. .
1981...

599.4
639.8
665.0
690.5
710.5
737.4
771.1
792.0
855.6
861.2
845.8
900. 3
918.7
966.8
1005.7

607.4
642.1
671.1
702.2
716.8
752.5
779.9
798.7
862.9
860.6
892.2
904 .7
931.6
975.5
1006.9

623.5
649.6
676.2
703.9
729.8
760.1
780.7
812.4
868.8
860.1
879.2
909.5
948.1
985.9
1015.7

634.8
655.9
681.6
708.5
732.8
756.2
785.2
838.1
874.1
851.8
886.1
915.1
960.9
998.0
1017.7

616.3
646.8
673.5
701.3
722.5
751.6
779.2
810.3
865.3
858.4
875.8
907.4
939.8
981.5
1011.5

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973. ..
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

3,098
3,268
3,359
3,453
3,518
3,613
3,737
3,803
4,077
4,074
3,973
4 195
4,248
4,434
4,574

3,131
3,271
3,381
3,503
3,541
3,678
3,771
3,828
4,105
4,065
4,183
4, 209
4,300
4,465
4,570

3,203
3,299
3,398
3,502
3,595
3,705
3,765
3,886
4,125
4,055
4,112
4, 222
4,366
4,502
4,598

3,251
3,321
3,416
3,515
3,600
3,675
3,778
4,000
4,142
4,007
4,135
4, 240
4,415
4,547
4,596

3,171
3,290
3,389
3,493
3,564
3,668
3,763
3,879
4,112
4,050
4,101
4, 216
4,332
4,487
4,584

230. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, TOTAL, IN CURRENT
DOLLARS
(ANNUAI RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

266.8
282.8
291.7
314.2
326.0
335.7
357.0
377.8
405.9

1948.
..
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953 .
1954...
1955
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961. . .
1962.. .
1963.. .
1964...

308.8
315.8
327.7
345.7
342.7
362 8
363.5
385 2
403.2
411.7
411.0
434.1
448.1
454.0
474.5
493.1
516.6

312.1
319.8
333.6
337.8
348.6
364 .6
366.2
392 2
403.9
412.4
414.7
439.7
454.1
459.9
479.8
497.4
525.6

312.6
319.3
348.0
340.7
350.2
363.6
371.8
396.4
405.1
415.2
420.9
443.3
452.7
461.4
483.7
503.9
534.3

315.4
322.5
339.9
342.1
358.8
362.6
378.6
402.6
409.3
416.0
425.4
444.6
453.2
470.3
490.0
507.5
535.3

312.2
319.3
337.3
341.6
350.1
363.4
370.0
394.1
405.4
413.8
418.0
440.4
452.0
461.4
482.0
500.5
528.0

432.9
469.4
494. 0
545.7
586.7
628.1
677.5
744. 2
820.6
906.7
992.1
1094.2
1217.4
1369.9
1529.1

446.3
474.2
500. 8
554.0
597.8
634.1
692.6
767 .0
834.3
914.1
1016.9
1127.9
1254.5
1416.6
1582.3

430. 4
465.1
490.3
536.9
581.8
621.7
672.2
737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1084.3
1205.5
1348.7
1510.9

1965...
1966...
1967
1968.. .
1969...
1970.
..
1971...
1972..
1973...
1974.
. .
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

546.0
581.2
594 8
620.7
651.9
667.4
687.0
718 6
769.0
762.1
764.0
810.6
851.9
884.1
925.5

550.7
582.3
602 4
629 .9
656.2
670.5
693.3
731 1
766.8
764.9
776.3
817.7
856.0
900.6
922.8

559.2
588.6
605. 2
642.3
659.6
676.5
698.2
741. 3
770.5
770.1
786.3
827.1
866.4
911.2
933.4

573.9
590.5
608. 2
644.7
663.9
673.9
708.6
757.1
767.4
757.3
794.2
839.4
881.3
923.4
941.6

557.5
585.7
602.7
634.4
657.9
672.1
696.8
737.1
768.5
763.6
780.2
823.7
863.9
904.8
930.9

176.9
177.6
200.4
206.2
217.2
2 30 5
236.4

1956...
1957.
. .
1958. . .
1959. ..
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

261.4
276.1
284.0
303.5
319.8
328.5
347.5
367.2
390.6

263.9
278.3
286.8
309.1
325.9
333.1
353.0
371.2
397.9

1965. .
1966...
1967
1968.. .
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972
1973...
1974...
1975. . .
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...

417.9
456.2
478.7
517.6
565.8
607.8
652.8
709 6
790.0
853.0
935.1
1047.8
1163.9
1278.3
1454.1

424.3
460.6
487 .5
530.2
576.9
616.9
666.0
727.3
802.9
878.6
961.6
1067.2
1186.2
1330.1
1478.0

..

NOTE:

These series contain revisions beginning with the first year shown.




AVERAGE

174.7
178.1
192.0
207.1
217.1
229 7
235.8
253 7
266.0
280.4
289.5
310.8
324.9
335.0
355.2
374.6
400.5

174.0
178.2
186.8
203.8
215.1
2 29 9
234.3

1954.

231. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES , TOTAL, IN 1972
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

177.8
180.1
197.8
209.9
225.0
230 0
240.8
260 0
271.9
284.4
295.4
316.2
328.0
342.7
363.4
382.1
407.6

170.3
176.6
182.9
208.3
211.1
228 3
231.9

1948.. .
1949. . .
1950...
1951...
1952...

AVERAGE

(APRIL 1981)

101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
232.

1 Q

II Q

III Q

IV Q

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, DURABLE GOODS, IN
CURRENT DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

233.
AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

22.0
22.8
27.7
33.8
28.9
32.9
31.2
36.2
37.6
40.0
36.8
41.2
43.0
39.7
45.0
49.8
55.0

22.4
24.8
28.1
28.9
29.0
32.8
31.8
38.6
37.6
39.5
36.0
43.0
43.9
40.7
46.3
51.1
56.4

23.7
25.8
35.6
28.3
27.3
32.5
31.3
40.3
37.3
39.1
36.7
43.9
43.4
41.9
46.8
51.9
58.2

23.3
26.8
31.5
28.3
31.4
31.9
33.0
39.4
38.9
38.8
38.0
41.6
42.2
44.0
48.8
52.9
56.1

22.9
25.0
30.8
29.8
29.1
32.5
31.8
38.6
37.9
39.3
36.8
42.4
43.1
41.6
46.7
51.4
56.4

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

61.6
68.7
67.3
76.8
85.3
84.9
93.0
105.6
125.5
118.5
122.4
152.0
173.7
185.0
212.5

61.5
66.0
70.6
78.7
85.7
86.3
95.9
109.0
124.3
121.7
127.1
154.6
175.7
200.1
207.4

63.3
68.5
70.8
83.0
85.9
87.3
98.2
112.2
123.4
127.4
136.7
158.1
179.4
202.0
213.3

65.6
68.8
71.6
83.3
86.0
82.4
102.0
117.6
120.2
118.5
142.6
162.6
186.4
210.2
216.1

63.0
68.0
70.1
80.5
85.7
85.2
97.2
111.1
123.3
121.5
132.2
156.8
178.8
199.3
212.3

235.

Year

Annual

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, TOTAL, AS PERCENT
OF GNP
(PERCENT)

AVERAGE

*

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, DURABLE GOODS, IN
1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

Annual
AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

32.1
32.2
38.9
44.3
37.5
42.3
40.9
48.1
49.4
49.9
45.1
49.5
51.0
47.7
52.9
58.2
63.2

32.2
35.4
39.2
38.1
38.3
41.9
41.4
51.3
48.9
48.8
44.5
51.3
52.3
48.4
54.2
59.4
64.8

32.9
36.8
49.0
37.1
35.9
41.8
42.4
52.7
48.1
48.0
45.1
52.1
51.8
49.4
54.7
60.1
66.8

32.8
37.7
43.2
36.9
40.5
42.5
45.1
52.2
48.8
47.9
46.6
49.7
50.5
51.8
57.0
61.0
64.6

32.5
35.5
42.6
39.1
38.0
42.1
42.5
51.1
48.8
48.6
45.3
50.7
51.4
49.3
54.7
59.7
64.8

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

70.5
79.7
77.2
85.2
92.3
89.7
94.0
106.2
124.8
114.4
106.5
125.1
135.7
139.5
149.6

70.6
76.3
80.7
86.9
92.1
90.7
96.3
108.9
122.5
114.7
109.0
125.6
136.8
148.1
144.2

73.1
78.8
79.9
90.9
91.7
91.1
99.0
111.7
120.8
115.8
115.9
126.9
138.7
147.0
146.7

76.1
78.7
80.1
90.4
91.3
84.8
103.5
117.6
117.2
104.5
119.2
128.5
142.4
150.7
146.0

72.6
78.4
79.5
88.3
91.8
89.1
98.2
111.1
121.3
112.3
112.7
126.6
138.4
146.3
146.6

236.
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, NONDURABLE GOODS,
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

68.1
67.8
68.3
65.0
61.7
62.4
64.0
63.6
63.3
62.7
65.0
63.6
63.1
64.6
62.7
63.1
62.5

67.6
69.3
67.4
62.1
62.9
62.2
64.7
63.6
63.1
62.9
65.1
63.0
64.4
64.2
62.7
62.8
62.8

66.9
68.6
68.0
61.6
62.4
62.6
64.5
63.2
63.0
62.9
64.3
64.3
64.2
63.6
62.8
62.8
63.1

66.9
70.1
64.6
61.9
62.5
63.3
64.1
63.3
62.9
64.1
63.3
63.9
65.0
63.2
63.3
62.4
62.8

67.4
69.0
67.1
62.6
62.4
62.6
64.3
63.4
63.1
63.2
64.4
63.7
64.2
63.9
62.9
62.8
62.8

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

95.1
96.3
94.8
107.6
110.8
117.0
117.1
120.5
127.2
132.5
137.6
144.3
148.8
153.9
159.3
165.2
172.7

97.0
95.3
96.3
107.1
113.0
116.9
117.1
122.2
128.1
133.9
138.9
145.6
151.8
154.7
160.6
165.9
175.7

97.0
93.5
100.9
109.0
115.0
116.2
118.1
123.3
129.4
137.2
140.8
147.1
151.4
155.2
162.2
168.3
179.1

97.3
94.3
100.9
111.4
116.9
116.0
119.5
125.7
130.8
136.9
141.9
148.7
152.5
157.4
164.1
168.8
180.1

96.6
94.9
98.2
108.8
113.9
116.5
118.0
122.9
128.9
135.2
139.8
146.4
151.1
155.3
161.6
167.1
176.9

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

62.5
61.8
61.3
61.5
61.4
62.5
62.2
62.1
61.6
61.5
63.2
62.7
63.3
62.9
62.1

62.2
61.4
61.8
61.1
61.5
62.5
62.3
62.1
61.4
61.7
63.4
62.8
62.6
62.5
62.2

62.2
61.7
61.3
61.7
61.4
62.6
62.4
62.2
61.3
62.5
62.9
63.3
62.4
62.5
62.6

62.2
61.2
60.8
61.5
62.1
62.8
62.6
62.2
60.6
62.0
62.7
63.6
63.1
62.4
63.4

62.3
61.5
61.3
61.4
61.6
62.6
62.4
62.2
61.2
61.9
63.0
63.1
62.8
62.6
62.6

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

182.6
200.5
209.6
223.1
241.3
260.2
273.8
288.8
321.6
358.4
392.2
429.6
464.9
504.0
571.8

186.0
203.9
211.2
228.2
245.9
263.5
277.4
297.2
327.7
369.4
402.5
436.2
474.0
520.4
586.4

189.5
206.8
213.4
234.2
249.9
267.3
279.9
304.0
337.5
380.4
414.1
445.6
481.5
536.3
611.5

196.5
207.4
216.2
236.9
254.3
271.9
284.0
312.6
346.8
385.1
420.4
455.5
495.6
558.3
639.2

188.6
204.7
212.6
230.6
247.8
265.7
278.8
300.6
333.4
373.4
407.3
441.7
497.0
529.8
602.2

237.
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, SERVICES, IN
CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

238.
AVERAGE

PERSONAL CONSUMP1 ION EXPENDITURES, NONDURABLE GOODS,
IN 1972 DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

53.2
57.5
60.3
66.9
71.5
78.4
83.6
90.1
96.5
103.6
109.6
117.9
128.0
135.0
143.2
152.1
162.9

54.6
58.1
62.3
67.9
73.1
80.2
85.3
91.1
98.1
104.9
111.9
120.5
130.2
137.6
146.1
154.1
165.7

56.2
58.3
63.9
69.0
74.9
81.8
87.0
92.4
100.1
106.5
114.2
123.2
131.2
138.6
148.0
157.7
168.5

57.2
59.0
65.4
70.1
76.7
82.1
88.3
94.9
102.1
108.7
115.5
125.9
133.3
141.4
150.5
160.4
171.4

55.3
58.2
63.0
68.5
74.0
80.6
86.1
92.1
99.2
105.9
112.8
121.9
130.7
138.1
147.0
156.1
167.1

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

154.0
157.2
160.1
164.7
166.5
176.1
175.8
181.4
191.6
193.1
193.4
203.2
207.2
209.6
216.5
221.5
228.2

155.6
157.5
161.7
162.7
170.3
176.6
175.0
184.4
191.1
193.9
194.9
204.6
209.5
211.6
217.4
222.4
232.2

154.1
156.3
164.4
166.0
172.8
175.2
177.2
185.9
191.2
196.7
198.3
205.5
208.1
211.7
219.3
224.1
236.1

156.4
158.4
161.0
167.7
174.9
174.9
180.0
189.8
192.5
195.7
200.6
206.8
208.1
214.8
220.8
224.2
236.7

155.0
157.4
161.8
165.3
171.2
175.7
177.0
185.4
191.6
194.9
196.8
205.0
208.2
211.9
218.5
223.0
233.3

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

173.7
187.0
201.9
217.8
239.2
262.8
286.0
315.2
343.0
376.1
420.6
466.2
525.2
589.3
669.9

176.9
190.6
205.7
223.2
245.3
267.1
292.7
321.2
350.9
387.5
432.0
476.4
536.5
609.5
684.2

180.1
194.1
209.8
228.4
250.9
273.6
299.5
328.0
359.8
398.9
441.3
490.5
556.5
631.6
704.3

184.3
198.0
213.0
233.8
257.4
279.7
306.6
336.8
367.3
410.4
453.9
509.8
572.4
648.1
727.0

178.7
192.4
207.6
225.8
248.2
270.8
296.2
325.3
355.2
393.2
437.0
485.7
547.7
619.6
696.3

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

239.2
253.5
258.3
266.1
275.7
281.3
287.6
292.4
310.2
303.5
303.5
317.0
329.8
339.8
351.1

240.9
255.4
259.4
269.0
277.0
282.4
288.5
299.3
306.9
303.4
308.5
320.7
332.0
342.4
350.6

244.1
257.2
259.5
273.6
277.7
284.5
288.4
303.3
308.2
305.1
309.9
324.1
334.0
347.2
355.4

251.8
255.9
260.8
273.3
278.7
286.7
290.2
307.6
306.7
301.2
311.1
328.0
340.0
353.5
361.3

244.0
255.5
259.5
270.5
277.3
283.7
288.7
300.6
308.0
303.3
308.2
322.5
334.0
345.7
354.6

NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with the first year shown.




102

(APRIL 1981)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

239. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, SERVICES, IN 1972
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

Annual
AVERAGE

Year

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

240. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN CURRENT
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

Annual
AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

122.7
126.4
128.6
136.7
138.7
144.4
146.8
155.7
162.2
168.7
172.5
181.5
189.9
196.7
205.1
213.4
225.2

124.3
126.8
132.7
137.1
140.0
146.0
149.7
156.5
163.9
169.7
175.3
183.8
192.3
199.9
208.3
215.7
228.7

125.6
126.2
134.6
137.6
141.5
146.6
152.1
157.7
165.8
170.5
177.5
185.7
192.7
200.2
209.7
219.7
231.4

126.3
126.4
135.7
137.5
143.4
145.3
153.4
160.6
168.0
172.3
178.2
188.1
194.6
203.7
212.1
222.4
234.1

124.7
126.5
132.9
137.2
140.9
145.6
150.5
157.6
165.0
170.3
175.9
184.8
192.4
200.2
208.8
217.8
229.8

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

43.3
39.3
43.6
60.7
54.1
54.8
49.5
63.5
70.8
69.8
57.8
74.5
86.0
66.9
84.9
86.4
95.6

46.1
32.7
50.5
63.9
47.5
56.1
50.4
67.9
70.4
69.8
56.5
83.0
76.4
72.9
85.9
90.4
96.7

47.9
35.7
55.4
58.7
51.1
54.2
53.1
70.1
71.3
71.8
62.5
75.2
74.2
78.0
86.4
92.3
96.8

46.1
33.4
65.6
53.4
55.7
48.2
57.8
72.0
71.6
65.4
70.4
79.7
66.9
81.3
84.5
94.5
100.2

45.9
35.3
53.8
59.2
52.1
53.3
52.7
68.4
71.0
69.2
61.9
78.1
75.9
74.8
85.4
90.9
97.4

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

236.2
248.0
259.2
269.5
283.9
296.4
305.4
320.0
334.1
344.2
354.0
368.4
386.3
404.8
424.8

239.2
250.6
262.3
274.0
287.1
297.4
308.5
322.9
337.5
346.8
358.8
371.3
387.2
410.1
428.0

242.1
252.6
265.7
277.8
290.2
300.8
310.8
326.4
341.5
349.2
360.5
376.1
393.7
417.1
431.3

246.0
255.9
267.4
281.0
293.9
302.5
314.9
331.9
343.5
351.6
363.9
382.8
398.9
419.2
434.3

240.9
251.8
263.7
275.6
288.8
299.3
309.9
325.3
339.2
348.0
359.3
374.7
391.5
412.8
429.6

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

111.5
124.8
120.2
127.1
147.1
141.3
159.4
183.3
221.6
225.8
191.4
248.8
298.8
350.7
408.3

111.8
127.4
117.1
133.6
149.4
143.6
166.9
193.2
227.0
232.9
193.0
258.3
318.7
377.7
423.2

114.2
123.5
123.5
133.8
154.1
147.8
168.7
197.5
229.6
227.9
217.5
259.6
335.3
380.4
421.7

116.7
127.1
130.6
138.6
146.5
144.1
170.6
206.1
240.9
228.0
222.4
264.7
336.2
392.6
410.0

113.5
125.7
122.8
133.3
149.3
144.2
166.4
195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
322.3
375.3
415.8

241. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN 1972
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

242. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN
CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

81.0
71.3
79.6
96.6
86.4
87.6
79.1
97.7
103.9
98.4
82.9
103.7
117.4
94.0
116.8
118.7
131.8

82.8
61.6
89.8
100.1
77.4
89.1
79.7
103.9
102.7
98.0
80.8
114.1
105.1
101.1
118.3
124.6
132.4

83.4
65.8
96.0
93.8
80.5
86.0
84.0
105.8
102.2
99.8
88.1
104.0
102.5
107.9
119.1
127.3
131.5

81.2
62.8
108.7
85.3
87.6
78.6
89.7
107.8
101.7
91.7
98.0
110.2
93.8
112.6
116.0
129.6
136.1

82.1
65.4
93.5
93.9
83.0
85.3
83.1
103.8
102.6
97.0
87.5
108.0
104.7
103.9
117.6
125.1
133.0

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

40.0
39.3
41.2
50.2
48.9
52.4
52.1
58.9
64.8
67.8
63.2
70.3
75.5
70.2
76.7
80.7
90.2

41.0
38.0
45.8
48.7
49.9
53.0
53.1
61.9
66.1
67.5
61.6
72.9
73.6
71.4
79.5
84.3
90.9

41.8
37.4
50.6
48.3
46.8
53.5
55.3
64.0
67.2
68.6
62.4
73.8
71.6
72.8
80.5
85.9
92.3

41.8
38.6
50.6
48.3
50.3
52.8
56.6
64.9
67.3
67.6
66.3
72.9
71.1
75.5
80.0
88.9
93.5

41.1
38.4
47.0
48.9
49.0
52.9
54.3
62.4
66.3
67.9
63.4
72.5
72.9
72.5
79.2
84.9
91.7

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

149.4
164.8
152.6
157.2
172.5
158.1
169.8
186.0
215.7
206.3
145.8
181.4
203.3
224.9
237.7

150.5
165.0
148.9
162.7
173.1
158.3
175.1
194.5
217.2
200.9
146.8
185.7
213.7
232.9
238.7

152.4
160.3
155.1
161.6
175.4
161.6
175.3
196.8
215.4
190.3
163.3
184.6
220.6
229.3
232.6

155.4
162.0
163.0
164.9
164.8
156.2
175.4
202.7
221.8
184.3
163.3
186.3
216.5
231.8
221.5

151.9
163.0
154.9
161.6
171.4
158.5
173.9
195.0
217.5
195.5
154.8
184.5
213.5
229.7
232.6

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

99.2
111.7
107.8
122.5
136.7
139.8
148.8
177.1
205.3
213.1
205.7
233.5
276.3
325.8
384.0

102.3
112.9
111.1
123.0
139.0
139.2
157.0
181.1
211.6
215.2
207.6
241.0
298.0
350.7
390.1

105.0
112.2
113.3
125.3
141.8
141.8
161.9
184.7
214.5
217.1
215.5
248.2
307.7
361.3
408.3

108.2
109.5
117.8
130.9
140.2
143.2
167.3
196.3
213.8
212.6
223.2
261.5
323.1
374.9
410.8

103.7
111.6
112.5
125.4
139.5
141.0
158.8
184.8
211.3
214.5
213.0
246.0
301.3
353.2
398.3

243. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN
1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

245. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, CHANGE IN BUSINESS
INVENTORIES, ALL INDUSTRIES
(ANN. RATE, BILLION DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

77.0
71.7
75.2
83.2
79.1
83.7
82.5
91.8
96.4
96.0
89.7
98.2
104.7
98.1
106.3
111.3
125.0

77.3
68.8
82.1
80.1
80.1
84.0
83.8
95.8
97.2
95.1
87.0
101.5
101.8
99.4
110.2
116.7
125.0

76.4
68.4
88.0
79.2
75.1
84.1
86.7
98.1
97.3
96.1
87.8
102.6
99.1
101.4
111.6
119.3
126.1

75.9
70.4
86.7
78.4
80.4
83.5
88.3
98.5
96.4
94.6
92.8
101.5
99.0
104.9
110.7
122.9
127.4

76.6
69.8
83.0
80.2
78.7
83.8
85.3
96.1
96.8
95.5
89.3
100.9
101.2
100.9
109.7
117.5
125.9

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

3.3
0.
2.4
10.5
5.2
2.4
-2.5
4.6
6.0
2.1
-5.4
4.2
10.5
-3.2
8.3
5.7
5.4

5.1
-5.3
4.8
15.2
-2.3
3.2
-2.7
6.1
4.3
2.3
-5.1
10.2
2.8
1.5
6.4
6.1
5.9

6.1
-1.7
4.9
10.4
4.3
0.7
-2.2
6.0
4.1
3.2
0.1
1.4
2.6
5.2
5.9
6.5
4.5

4.3
-5.3
15.1
5.1
5.4
-4.5
1.3
7.1
4.3
-2.2
4.1
6.8
-4.2
5.8
4.5
5.6
6.7

4.7
-3.1
6.8
10.3
3.1
0.4
-1.5
6.0
4.7
1.3
-1.5
5.7
3.0
2.3
6.3
6.0
5.6

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

134.6
149.1
138.1
151.7
160.7
155.9
158.6
179.7
199.7
193.1
160.1
171.4
190.9
207.2
222.3

139.2
147.9
141.5
150.5
161.2
153.3
164.7
182.5
202.0
188.3
158.1
174.4
201.2
216.9
220.4

141.4
146.6
143.3
151.8
161.7
155.1
168.2
184.0
201.6
182.6
162.3
177.3
204.4
217.8
225.0

145.3
141.2
147.8
156.3
157.9
154.8
171.8
193.0
198.1
171.5
165.5
183.9
208.3
221.3
222.2

140.1
146.2
142.7
152.6
160.4
154.8
165.8
184.8
200.4
183.9
161.5
176.7
201.2
215.8
222.5

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

12.3
13.1
12.4
4.6
10.4
1.6
10.5
6.3
16.3
12.7
-14.3
15.3
22.5
24.9
24.3

9.5
14.5
6.0
10.7
10.4
4.4
9.9
12.0
15.4
17.7
-14.6
17.3
20.8
27.0
33.1

9.2
11.3
10.2
8.5
12.3
6.0
6.8
12.8
15.1
10.7
2.1
11.4
27.6
19.1
13.3

8.5
17.6
12.8
7.7
6.3
0.9
3.3
9.8
27.1
15.4
-0.8
3.3
13.1
17.7
-0.8

9.9
14.1
10.3
7.9
9.8
3.2
7.7
10.2
18.5
14.1
-6.9
11.8
21.0
22.2
17.5

NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with the first year shown.




(APRIL 1981)

1103

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
247.

1 Q

II Q

III Q

IV Q

Year

Annual

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, CHANGE IN BUSINESS
INVENTORIES, AS PERCENT OF GNP
(PERCENT)

248.
AVERAGE

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, NONRESIDENTIAL, AS PERCENT OF GNP
(PERCENT)

Annual
AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

1.3
0.
0.9
3.3
1.5
0.7
-0.7
1.2
1.5
0.5
-1.2
0.9
2.1
-0.6
1.5
1.0
0.9

2.0
-2.1
1.7
4.6
-0.7
0.8
-0.7
1.5
1.0
0.5
-1.2
2.1
0.6
0.3
1.1
1.0
0.9

2.3
-0.7
1.7
3.1
1.2
0.2
-0.6
1.5
1.0
0.7
0.
0.3
0.5
1.0
1.0
1.1
0.7

1.6
-2.1
4.9
1.5
1.5
-1.2
0.3
1.7
1.0
-0.5
0.9
1.4
-0.8
1.1
0.8
0.9
1.0

1.8
-1.2
2.3
3.1
0.9
0.1
-0.4
1.5
1.1
0.3
-0.4
1.2
0.6
0.4
1.1
1.0
0.9

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

10.2
10.0
8.9
9.5
9.3
9.2
9.4
9.0
10.2
10.6
9.9
9.2
9.7
9.2
9.1
9.0
9.3

9.9
9.7
9.4
9.5
9.4
9.3
9.3
9.4
10.4
10.5
9.4
9.3
9.7
9.2
9.3
9.1
9.5

10.0
9.1
9.9
9.5
8.4
9.6
9.4
9.9
10.6
10.7
9.0
9.6
9.4
9.1
9.3
9.2
9.7

10.4
9.0
9.8
9.3
8.9
9.6
9.2
10.2
10.5
10.6
9.1
9.5
9.4
9.1
9.2
9.4
9.8

10.1
9.4
9.5
9.4
9.0
9.4
9.3
9.6
10.4
10.6
9.4
9.4
9.6
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.6

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

1.8
1.8
1.6
0.5
1.1
0.2
1.0
0.6
1.3
0.9
-1.0
0.9
1.2
1.2
1.0

1.4
1.9
0.8
1.2
1.1
0.4
0.9
1.0
1.2
1.2
-1.0
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.4

1.3
1.5
1.3
1.0
1.3
0.6
0.6
1.1
1.1
0.7
0.1
0.7
1.4
0.9
0.5

1.2
2.3
1.6
0.9
0.7
0.1
0.3
0.8
2.0
1.0
0.
0.2
0.7
0.8
0.

1.4
1.9
1.3
0.9
1.0
0.3
0.7
0.9
1.4
1.0
-0.5
0.7
1.1
1.0
0.7

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

10.2
10.9
10.6
10.6
10.6
10.6
10.0
10.2
10.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
10.4
11.0
11.4

10.4
11.1
10.6
10.2
10.7
10.6
10.0
10.1
10.9
10.9
10.2
10.1
10.7
11.2
11.5

10.6
11.0
10.4
10.2
10.8
10.5
10.0
10.1
11.0
11.0
10.1
10.3
10.7
11.3
11.8

10.8
10.9
10.4
10.5
10.8
10.2
10.0
10.4
10.8
10.8
10.0
10.2
11.1
11.4
11.6

10.5
11.0
10.5
10.4
10.7
10.5
10.0
10.2
10.8
10.9
10.2
10.2
10.7
11.2
11.6

249.

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, RESIDENTIAL,
AS PERCENT OF GNP
(PERCENT)

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
L964
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
251.

250.
AVERAGE

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

5.8
5.1
6.5
6.2
5.0
5.1
5.0
6.2
5.5
4.8
4.6
5.5
5.2
4.6
4.7
4.9
5.1

6.0
5.1
7.1
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.4
6.2
5.4
4.7
4.6
5.6
4.8
4.5
4.8
5.1
4.8

5.8
5.4
7.3
4.9
5.1
4.9
5.7
6.0
5.3
4.6
4.8
5.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
5.0
4.7

5.4
6.1
6.7
4.9
5.1
5.0
5.9
5.6
5.0
4.6
5.1
5.2
4.6
4.8
4.8
5.2
4.6

5.8
5.4
6.9
5.3
5.1
5.0
5.5
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.8
5.4
4.8
4.6
4.8
5.0
4.8

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

8.7
7.9
3.4
1.7
5.7
1.3
1.7
3.6
3.4
8.0
3.8
1.1
3.8
7.8
5.7
6.3
10.7

6.7
7.6
3.0
3.8
4.0
0.8
2.3
2.3
4.9
7.6
3.2
0.4
4.7
6.4
7.0
7.9
9.4

6.4
6.5
0.9
5.8
2.0
1.3
2.6
3.3
5.6
7.4
3.5
2.1
6.1
6.1
6.7
7.3
10.1

6.0
4.1
1.5
6.4
1.0
1.6
3.5
2.9
7.2
6.1
2.4
2.1
7.3
6.3
6.0
8.8
10.0

6.9
6.5
2.2
4.4
3.2
1.3
2.5
3.0
5.3
7.3
3.3
1.4
5.5
6.6
6.4
7.6
10.1

4.6
4.2
3.2
3.9
4.2
3.7
4.2
5.3
5.5
4.4
3.4
4.0
4.6
5.1
5.0

4.6
4.0
3.5
4.0
4.2
3.5
4.6
5.3
5.3
4.2
3.5
4.1
5.1
5.2
4.9

4.5
3.7
3.7
4.0
4.0
3.6
4.9
5.3
5.1
4.0
3.6
4.1
5.1
5.2
4.9

4.3
3.2
3.9
4.1
3.8
4.0
5.1
5.5
4.7
3.6
3.8
4.5
5.2
5.1
4.8

4.5
3.8
3.6
4.0
4.0
3.7
4.7
5.4
5.2
4.0
3.6
4.2
5.0
5.2
4.9

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

7.9
7.5
7.0
4.1
3.9
6.5
7.3
-0.2
7.0
22.0
25.6
18.4
-2.2
-12.3
19.9

10.0
6.7
6.7
4.9
3.7
8.1
3.5
-0.3
11.4
11.7
28.5
15.0
-2.0
-3.3
8.2

9.2
5.7
6.3
4.4
3.9
6.6
3.9
1.4
18.5
7.8
24.9
12.2
-0.2
1.9
17.9

8.1
6.2
5.3
3.7
5.2
5.5
1.7
2.1
19.8
12.1
28.1
9.4
-12.4
11.4
7.6

8.8
6.5
6.3
4.3
4.2
6.7
4.1
0.7
14.2
13.4
26.8
13.8
-4.2
-0.6
13.4

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES AS PERCENT OF GNP
(PERCENT)

2 52.
AVERAGE

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

3.5
3.0
1.3
0.5
1.7
0.4
0.5
0.9
0.8
1.8
0.9
0.2
0.7
1.5
1.0
1.1
1.7

2.6
3.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
0.2
0.6
0.6
1.2
1.7
0.7
0.1
0.9
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.5

2.4
2.5
0.3
1.7
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.8
1.3
1.6
0.8
0.4
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.6

2.3
1.6
0.5
1.9
0.3
0.4
0.9
0.7
1.7
1.4
0.5
0.4
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.4
1.5

2.7
2.5
0.8
1.3
1.0
0.4
0.7
0.8
1.2
1.6
0.7
0.3
1.0
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.6

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

18.7
18.0
13.5
17.3
21.3
17.8
17.2
20.5
23.2
29.0
24.2
23.5
27.7
30.0
30.5
31.9
38.3

17.2
17.5
13.8
19.7
19.3
18.0
19.2
20.2
24.6
28.7
24.2
24.0
28.7
28.9
32.4
34.3
37.8

17.4
15.9
14.5
20.7
17.9
18.3
18.7
21.5
25.7
28.0
24.2
26.0
29.5
30.0
32.3
34.6
39.2

16.5
13.8
15.8
21.0
18.0
17.8
19.7
21.8
26.6
26.6
24.2
25.7
29.5
30.8
32.0
36.1
40.0

17.5
16.3
14.4
19.7
19.1
18.0
18.7
21.0
25.0
28.1
24.2
2.4.8
28.9
29.9
31.8
34.2
38.8

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

1.2
1.0
0.9
0.5
0.4
O.'7
0. /
0.
0.5
1.6
1.7
1.1
-0.1
-0.6
0.9

1.5
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.8
0.3
0.
0.9
0.8
1.9
0.9
-0.1
-0,2
0.3

1.3
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.1
1.4
0.5
1.6
0.7
0.
0.1
0.7

1.1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.2
1.4
0.8
1.7
0.5
-0.6
0.5
0.3

1.3
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.1
1.0
0.9
1.7
0.8
-0.2
0.
0.6

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

36.9
43.4
47.5
49.8
49.7
63.6
68.4
74.0
95.8
136.8
156.0
164.0
178.3
195.9
259.1

42.6
43.8
46.8
51.8
59.0
66.7
69.1
73.8
105.0
146.3
149.2
168.4
185.4
214.8
266.8

42.3
45.0
46.9
54.3
59.5
66.1
71.8
78.0
114.1
147.5
152.7
173.6
187.5
225.3
293.1

42.5
46.0
48.1
53.5
61.9
66.2
66.0
84.1
123.5
154.2
161.9
177.5
181.9
243.5
306.3

41.1
44.6
47.3
52.4
57.5
65.7
68.8
77.5
109.6
146.2
154.9
170.9
183.3
219.8
281.3

NOTE:

These series contain revisions beginning with the first year shown.




104

(APRIL 1981)

F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Cyclical Indicators
Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning in-Series
Mar. 1975
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing. .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
8. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries
12. Index of net business formation
20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1972 dol. .
29. New building permits, private housing units
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1972 dollars (smoothed1)
92. Change in sensitive crude materials prices (smoothed1)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed1)
106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
51. Personal income less transfers in 1972 dollars . . . .
47. Index of industrial production, total
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators . .
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars. .
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing.
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income.
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators

3/75
2/75
3/75
2/75
2/75
12/75
3/75
3/75
2/75
12/74
1/75
1/75
2/75
1/75

(0)
(-1)
(0)

(-D

(-1)
(+9)
(0)
(0)

(-D

(-3)
(-2)
(-2)
(-1)
(-2)

4/75 (+1)
3/75
(0)
3/75
(0)
3/75
(0)
3/75 (0)
1/76
12/75
9/75
4/77
5/76
10/75
4/76

(+10)
(+9)
(+6)
(+25)
(+14)
(+7)
(+13)

Nov. 1970

Feb. 1961

9/70 (-2)
10/70 (-1)
(0)
11/70
12/70 (+1)
8/70 (-3)
(-1)
10/70
/
()
()
1/70 (-10)

12/60 (-2)
2/61
(0)
1/61 (-D
3/60 (-11
1/61 (-1
5/61 '(+3)
12/60 (-2)

4/58
3/58
4/58
12/57
4/58
3/58
2/58

(0)
(-1)
(0)
(-4)
(0)
(-1)
(-2)

4/54
1/54
10/53
12/53
3/54
3/54
9/53

(-1)
(-4)
(-7)
(-5)
(-2)
(-2)

3/70 (-8)
9/70 (-2)
6/70 (-5)
()
8/69 (-15)
4/70 (-7)
()
7/70 (-4)
)
10/70 (-)
1)

2/61
(0)
4/60 (-10)
10/60 (-4)
1/60 '(-13)
NSC
12/60 (-2)
12/60 (-2)

3/58
11/57
12/57
12/57
1/58
1/58
4/58

(-1)
(-5)
(-4)
(-4)
(-3)
(-3)
(0)

11/53
11/53
9/53
12/53
NSC
11/53
1/54

(-6)
(-6)
(-8)
(-5)

11/70
NSC
11/70
11/70
11/70

2/61
12/60
2/61
1/61
2/61

(0)
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(0)

5/58 (+1)
4/58
(0)
,4/58 (0)
4/58 (0)
4/58 (0)

8/54
4/54
4/54
12/53
8/54

7/61
3/61
12/61
11/65
NSC
11/61
11/61

(+5)
(+1)
(+10)
(+57)

10/58
8/58
5/59
8/58
8/58
11/58
8/58

5/55
10/54
5/55
7/55
10/54
11/54
10/54

6/72

(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)

(+19)

NSC
NSC
3/72
7/71
6/71
2/72

(+16)
(+8)
(+7)

(+15)

(+9)
(+9)

Apr. 1958

(+6)
(+4)
(+13)
(+4)
(+4)
(+7)
(+4)

May 1954

(-6)
(-4)
(+3)

(-D
(-D

(-5)
(+3)
(+12)
(+5)
(+12)
(+14)
(+5)
(+6)
(+5)

Oct. 1949
4/49
5/49
6/49
3/49
7/49
4/49
1/49

(-6)
(-5)
(-4)
(-7)
(-3)
(-6)
(-9)

6/49 (-4)
6/49 (-4)
6/49 (-4)
NA
8/48 (-14)
6/49 (-4)
10/49
(0)
10/49
7/49
10/49
7/49
10/49

(0)
(-3)
(0)
(-3)
(0)

6/50 (+8)
2/50 (+4)
8/50 (+10)
NSC
12/49 (+2)
NSC
3/50 (+5)

Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning in-Series
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing. .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
8. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries
12. Index of net business formation
20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1972 dol. .
29. New building permits, private housing units
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1972 dollars (smoothed1)
92. Change in sensitive crude materials prices (smoothed1)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed1)
106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

Nov. 1973

Dec. 1969

4/73 (-7)
10/73 (-D
3/73 (-8)
5/73 (-6)
3/73 (-8)
11/73
(0)
12/72 (-11)

10/68 (-14)
4/69 (-8)
7/69 (-5)
6/69 (-6)
4/69 (-8)
4/69 (-8)
2/69 (-10)

5/59
5/59
2/59
10/59
3/59
3/59
11/58

(-11)
(-11)
(-14)
(-6)
(-13)
(-13)
(-17)

11/55
11/55
7/55
10/55
6/55
11/56
2/55

(-21)
(-21)
(-25)
(-22)
(-26)
(-9)
(-30)

4/53 (-3) 12/47 (-11)
11/52 (-8) *12/47 (-11)
4/53 (-3)
6/48 (-5)
7/52 (-12) 10/48 (-1)
9/52 (-10) *l/48 (-10)
2/53 (-5) *4/48 (-7)
11/52 (-8) 10/47 (-13)

3/73
4/74
1/73
1/73
1/73
2/73
12/72

12/68
9/69
12/68
10/68
2/69
1/69
11/68

4/59
11/58
7/59
8/59
NSC
5/59
5/59

(-12)
(-17)
(-9)
(-8)

(-11)
(-23)
(-13)
(-4)
(-16)
(-23)
(-27)

2/53
3/53
1/53
5/53
NSC
3/53
11/52

(-5)
(-4)
(-6)
(-2)

(-11)
(-11)

9/56
9/55
7/56
4/57
4/56
9/55
5/55

4/60
(0)
5/60 (+1)
1/60 (-3)
1/60 (-3)
1/60 (-3)

3/57
8/57
3/57
2/57
2/57

(-5)
(0)
(-5)
(-6)
(-6)

6/53
6/53
7/53
3/53
5/53

(-D
(-D

6/60 (+2)
9/60 (+5)
2/61 (+10)
7/60 (+3)
NSC
12/60 (+8)
6/60 (+2)

9/57
9/57
4/58
12/57
9/57
1/58
9/57

(+1)
(+1)
(+8)
(+4)
(+1)
(+5)
(+1)

9/53
9/53
3/54
2/54
8/53
4/54
9/53

(+2)
(+2)
(+8)
(+7)
(+1)
(+9)
(+2)

(-8)
(+5)
(-10)
(-10)
(-10)
(-9)
(-11)

(-12)
(-3)
(-12)
(-14)
(-10)
(-11)
(-13)

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
51. Personal income less transfers in 1972 dollars . . . .
47. Index of industrial production, total
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators . .

10/74 (+11)
11/73 (0)
6/74 (+7)
11/73 (0)
11/73 (0)

3/70 (+3)
NSC
10/69 (-2)
10/69 (-2)
10/69 (-2)

LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars. .
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing.
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income.
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators

9/73
12/74
3/75
9/74
12/74
2/74
9/74

10/69
NSC
NSC
2/70
9/70
11/69
2/70

(-2)
(+13)
(+16)
(+10)
(+13)
(+3)
(+10)

(-2)
(+2)
(+9)

(-D

(+2)

Apr. 1960

Aug. 1957

July 1953

(-4)
(-8)

(0)
(-4)
(-2)

Nov. 1948

*7/48
9/47
6/48
NA
*l/47
*l/48
*l/48
9/48
10/48
7/48
12/48
10/48

(-4)
(-14)
(-5)
(-22)
(-10)
(-10)
(-2)

(-D

(-4)

(+D

(-D

11/48 (0)
9/49 (+10)
11/48 (0)
NSC
8/48 (-3)
NSC
2/49 (+3)

NOTE: Specific peak and trough dates mark the cyclical turning points in individual series, whereas reference peak and trough dates indicate
the cyclical turning points in business activity as a whole. This table shows the specific peaks and troughs corresponding to post-World War II
business cycles for the major composite indexes and their components. Numbers in parentheses indicate the leads (-) or lags (+) of the specific
dates in relation to the reference dates. The determination of specific peaks and troughs is not an entirely objective matter, and honest disagreement may exist among individual analysts. Therefore, the dates above should not be considered absolute. See MEASURING BUSINESS CYCLES by
Burns and Mitchell (NBER: 1946) for further information on the selection of specific peaks and troughs.
NA, not available. This indicates that data necessary to determine a turning point are not available.
NSC, no specific cycle. This indicates that no specific turning point corresponding to the indicated reference date is discernible.
*This is not necessarily the peak but is the high point in the available data.
l
This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.




105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

Year
and
quarter

I m p l i c i t price
deflator, gross
nonfarm business
product 1
(Index: 1977=100)

ni

Unit labor cost,
a l l persons, nonfarm
business sector 1

MI

in

in

series 2 6 -

(Index: 1977=100)

1979
I Q....
II Q...
I l l Q..
IV Q . . .

112.6
115.1
117.4
119.7

115.4
118.7
121.5
124.4

122.9
126.3
128.8
rl31.9

127.4
131.8
133.5
r!36.8

Impllcit price deflator, gross
business product, Q •
(index: 1977 = 100) ;

1980
I Q....
II Q...
I l l Q..
IV Q . . .
1981
pl34.5

I Q....
II Q...
I l l Q..
IV Q . . .

p!39.2

Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars 2
Year
and
month

Manufacturing
(Ratio)

Merchant
wholesalers
(Ratio)

Retail trade

Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm
business sector, Q :
(index: 1977 = 100) j

; Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)

mm

Manufacturing

(Ratio)

1980
Jan....
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.

1.90
1.91
1.98
2.08
2.12
2.12

1.37
1.39
1.41
1.45
1.46
1.46

1.37
1.39
1.43
1.47
1.48
1.46

July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.

2.08
2.08
1.99
1.96
1.96
1.96

1.44
1.46
1.43
1.40
1.41
1.38

1.44
1.43
1.43
1.45
1.43
1.41

1.97
p i . 98
(NA)

rl.37
pi.41
(NA)

rl.38
p i . 35
(NA)

Merchant wholesalers

1981
Jan
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981
preliminary, and "NA", not available.
NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; '
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s .
2
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




106

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes

Basic data
Series t i t l e
(and unit of measure)

Dec.
1980

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
40.1
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing1
(per 100 employees)
.. .
1.1
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
34.00
32. Vendor performance, companies receiving
slower deliveries (percent)
47
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
rl21.3
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
rl3.88
29. New building permits, private housing
units (index: 1967=100)
99.8
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1972 do!., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) . r - 1 . 0 5
92. Change in sensitive crude materials
prices, smoothed2 (percent)
rl.90
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
133.48
(index: 1941-43=10)
104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed2
r0.92
(percent)
106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars
808.0
(billion dollars)
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3
rl37.3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thousands)
51. Personal income less transfers in 1972
dollars (annual rate, billion dollars).
47. Industrial production, total
(index: 1967=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972
dollars (million dollars)
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total,
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1967=100)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
(million dollars)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income (percent)
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)

Net contribution to index
Mar.
1981

Dec.
to
Jan.
1981

Jan.

Feb.
1981

40.4

r39.9

p40.0

0.25

-0.46

0.10

rl.3

1.4

pi.4

-0.20

-0.11

0.0

32.62

r34.38

p33.67

-0.22

0.30

-0.13

46

50

52

-0.04

0.15

0.08

ell8.2

NA

NA

-0.37

Jan.
1981

to

Feb.
1981

NA

Feb.
to
Mar.
1981

IMA

rl4.17

rl2.34

pl4.05

0.05

-0.34

0.36

99.2

94.1

91.8

-0.02

-0.17

-0.09

r-5.52

p-7.34

-0.28

-0.12

r0.93

r2.13

3.89

-0.41

0.55

0.88

132.97

128.40

133.19

-0.02

-0.23

0.27

r0.99

e0.98

e0.85

0.22

-0.03

-0.50

r806.0

r803.5

p809.0

-0.10

-0.13

0.32

rl35.9

rl35.2

pl37.1

-1.02

-0.52

1.41

91,125

r91,481

r91,644

p91,645

0.31

0.14

0.00

1,054.2

rl,058.5

rl,061.5

pi,062.6

0.20

0.14

0.07

rl51.0

rl51.7

pl51.7

0.13

-0.11

0.14

156,123

rl57,415

pl56,585

0.18

-0.12

142.0

rl42.9

rl42.8

pl42.9

0.63

-0.07

0.07

13.5

14.4

14.4

14.0

-0.40

0.0

0.26

262.97

r263.17

P262.90

NA

0.04

-0.05

r200.3

r202.8

205.0

p205.1

0.39

0.34

0.02

20.35

20.16

19.43

18.05

-0.37

-1.42

-4.02

rl74,191

rl74,259

173,206

169,281

0.01

-0.13

-0.75

13.46

rl3.36

pl3.35

NA

-0.34

-0.03

190.6

189.0

rl86.2

-0.84

-1.48

NA

NA

pl77.7

NA

NA

NA

NA
-4.56

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t
is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the March 1979 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 106107) for weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
x

This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment
factor for the leading index is 0.099; for the coincident index, -0.164; for the lagging index, -0.170.
2

3




107

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1111111 • 11111111111 • 111 •

Deviations

. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted)

from
reference

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

Percent

-f - 2 0
• 350

• 400

1450

+ 20
• 500

• 550

+40

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
PEAK
1/80
DATA YEAR

1
2
3
4

SERIES
5
THOUSANDS
-7.2
375.
8.9
440.
40.8
569.
57.2
635.

2/80
3/80
4/80
5/80

5
6
7
8

52.7
32.7
24.3
24.0

617.
536.
502.
501.

6/80
7/80
8/80
9/80

9
10
11
12

8.7
-1.2
-2.5
2.7

439.
399.
394.
415.

10/80
11/80
12/80
1/81

13
14

-0.5
4.2

402.
421.

#650

• 700

+80

Deviations

910. Composite index of 12 leading

from
reference

indicators

peaks

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

Percent

+ 15

• 150

+ 10

+5
• 140

2/81
3/81

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
FROM ACTUAL
REF.
DATA YEAR
PEAK
1/80

• 600

+ 60

pTTTT|

SERIES 910
1967=100
134.1
131.5
126.2
123.4

• 130

1
2
3
4

-0.4
-2.4
-6.3
-8.4

5
6
7
8

-7.6
-4.5
-2.7
0.4

124.4
128.6
131.1
135.2

6/80
7/80
8/80
9/80

9
10
11
12

1.2
2.3
1.9
0.9

136.3
137.8
137.3
135.9

10/80
11/80
12/80
1/81

13
14

0.4
1.8

135.2
137.1

2/81
3/81

2/80
3/80
4/80
5/80

-5

-10
• 120

• 750

+100

• 800

• 850

-J + 120

40. Employees in goods-producing
industries

Percent

+2
• 27,000
• 26,500.

• 26,000

-4
-6

~°

-6

0 + 6

+12 +18 +24 +30 +.36

• 25,500

1
2
3
4

SERIES
40
THOUSANDS
-0.3 26623
-0.9 26476
-2.2 26121
-3.6 25745

2/80
3/80
4/80
5/8 0

5
6
7
8

-4.8
-5.8
-5.3
-4.6

25422
25163
25312
25476

6/8 0
7/80
8/80
9/80

9
10
11
12

-4.0
-3.4
-3.1
-2.5

25636
25811
25892
26041

10/80
11/80
12/80
1/81

13
14

-2.7
-2.8

-12

©23,500

SERIES 920
1967=100
145.2
-0.6
143.5
-1.8
140.5
-3.8
-5.5
138.0

indicators

Percent

- I +10

Median

• 155

+5

• 145

-5

5
6
7
8

-6.4
-6.6
-6.3
-5.3

136.7
136.4
136.9
138.4

6/80
7/80
8/80
9/80

9
10
11
12

-4.0
-3.2
-2.8
-2.2

140.2
141.4
142.0
142.9

10/80
11/80
12/80
1/81

13
14

-2.3
-2.2

142.8
142.9

2/81
3/81

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the December 1980 issue.

108

920. Composite index of 4 coincident

2/80
3/80
4/80
5/80

Months from reference peaks




-20

25987
2/81
25978
3/81
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
PEAK
1/80
DATA YEAR

©24,500

• 24,000

1110

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
PEAK
1/80
DATA YEAR

• 25,000

"10

-15

•

135

-10
1973

-15
ill
-6

,»,.,.,I,.,.,1...,.I,...,I,
0

+6

+12

+18 +24 +30 +36

Months from reference peaks

• 125

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical

|
30.

Patterns-Continued

QRTRS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK

Actual
data

Change in business inventories,

CURRENT QRTR.
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR

82.

Deviations
from
reference
peaks

Rate o '' capacity utilization,
manufg during (FRB)

1972 dollars

-1
+ 25

+20

SERIES 30
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
-0.7
IV/79

0

-0.9

1/80

1
2
3
4

1.3
-5.0
-7.2
-5.7

11/80
111/80
IV/80
1/81

+15
QRTRS.
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
PEAK
1/80
DATA
YEAR

+10

[Zcju]

1 +5

1980

• 85

'

t\ I \

1.0

84.4

0. P

83.4

1/80

77.9
75.7
79.2
79.7

11/80
[11/80
IV/80
1/81

A••

1L A

+5

O

O
Actual

SERIES 82
PERCENT
-1

n
u

• 80

- - 5

Jg Median

IV/79

0

• 75

1
2
3
4

-5

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

- -10
1957

1

/
• 70

-10

- -15
-J -15

• 65

- -20

50.

GNP, in 1972 dollars

c,c,c I

Deviations
from

Actual
data
for

reference
peaks

current
cycle

86.

M600

lc,Lg>c |

-1

SERIES 50
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
-0.8 1490.6
IV/79
1501.9

+5

-2,
-2.
-1.1
0.5

• 1500

+6

+12 +18 +24 +30

1450

1463.3 11/80
1471.9 111/80
1485.6
IV/80
1509.2
1/81

Percent

Median

0. P
-5.4
-5.8
-4.8
-2.0

I

1980
\

165.0

1/80

156.1
155.5
157.0
161.7

11/80
111/80
IV/80
1/81

+36

•

I

—

n
u

- - 5

NA X73
-6

• 170

• 160

\ \J /

SERIES 86
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
-0.5 164.1 IV/79

Months from reference peaks

NOTE:

D

1/80

DEVIQRTRS.
FROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
ACTUAL
AND
FROM
REF.
DATA
YEAR
1/80
PEAK

-1
•

0

investment,

totai, 1972 dollars

QRTRS.
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
PEAK
1/80
DATA
YEAR

+ 10

-5

Nonre sidential fixed

0 + 6 + 1 2

• 150

- -10

-1 -15

• 140

+18 +24 +30 +36

Months from reference peaks

For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts on p. 107 of the December 1980 issue.




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Accession rate, manufacturing
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment ..
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, selling, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, selling, retail trade, Dl
Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Expenditures, personal consumption
Imports of automobiles and parts

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
issue date) (issue date)

2
604

16
56

61
92

8/80

61
970
58
974
975
971
976
978
977
972
973

24
38
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38

67
76
65
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76

3/81
3/81
8/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/80

11/68
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*

55
616

22
56

65
92

4/81
8/80

10/69*

8/68

B
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates-See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve . . .
Bonds-See Interest rates.
Borrowing-See Credit.
Budget-See Government.
Building-See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation
Business incorporations
Business inventories—See Inventories.
Business loans-See Bank loans.
Business saving

Canada-See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing (BEA)
Manufacturing (FRB)
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, DI
Capital investment-See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force-See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Total
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded .
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change ,
Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of national
income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, manufacturing, and
construction

72
112

29
76
61
970
14
12
13

15,35
32

73
72

12/80
12/80

11/72
11/72

33
33

72
72

9/80
9/80

11/72

13,25
24
24
38
33
12,23
23

67
67
67
76
72
65
65

1/80
3/81
3/81
10/80
3/80
3/80

46

82

11/79

4/69
11/68
11/68*

20
20
20

64
64
64

9/79
9/79
9/79

24
24
37

66
66
75

10/80
10/80
10/80

914
35
34

11
29
29

60
70
70

9/80
4/81
4/81

442
90
441
37

51
18
51
18,51

89
62
89
62,

2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81

920

10
39
36
11
23
15,35
32

60

1/81
1/81
12/80
9/80
3/81
12/80
12/80

11/75

74*
60
66
73
72

49

87

11/80

10/72^

920c
951
940
9
72
112

345c
280

50
45

64

30,47

346

49

346c

50

340

49

Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coincides
Four coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six (aggers
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Marginal employment adjustments
Money and financial flows
Profitability
'
Twelve leaders
Twelve leaders, rate of change
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial, bldgs. .
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales...
Gross private domestic fixed investment
Nonresidential, as percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Residential as percent of GNP
Residential, total, constant dollars
Housing starts
,
Consumer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items, index
All items, percent changes
Food, index
Food, percent changes
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures-See Personal consumption
expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dol.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dol..
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits-See Profits.
Costs-See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, net change
„
Crude materials-See Wholesale prices.

110

Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) issue date)

920
920c
940

10
39
11

1/81
1/81
9/80

11/75*

930
930c

10
39

1/81
1/81

11/75*

914
915
913
917
916
910
910c

11
11
11
11
11
10
39

9/80
9/80
9/80
9/80
9/80
1/81
1/81

29
9

13,25
23
24

67
66
67

3/81
8/80

248
87
86
249

47
25
25
47
25
25

83
67
67
83
67
67

4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
3/81

12,21
22

64
65

3/81
12/79

66
113
95
39

35
32
15,35
33

73
72
73
72

3/81
4/81
8/79
10/80

10/72
10/72

320
320c
322
322c
58

49
49,59
49
49
22

84,95
84,95

3/81
3/81
3/81
3/81

5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
11/68*

20
10
116

12,23
23
34

7/80
7/80
11/80

9/68
7/64

112
110
72

32
32
15,35

12/80
3/81
12/80

11/72
7/64
11/72

66
113
95
39
33

35
32
15,35
33
32

3/81
4/81
8/79
10/80
3/81

10/72
10/72

4/72*
4/72*
4/72*

11/72
11/72

11/80
11/79

10/72
10/69

70,83

4/81

10/69

11/80

10/72

11/80

10/72

10/80

6/72*

340c

50

87

10/80' 6/72*

341

49

87

10/80

6/72*

341c
348
349

50
50
50

87
88
88

10/80
11/79
11/79

6/72*
6/72*
6/72*

53

19

63

4/80

Debt-See Credit.
Defense
Military prime contract awards
National defense purchases
New orders, defense products
Obligations incurred
Deficit-See Government.
Deflators-See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . .
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components .
New orders, manufacturing
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices, selling, retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Workweek, mfg. production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components .
Disposable personal income-See Income.

525
564
548
517

5/75*
4/69

65

9/68*
10/69*
10/69*
6/72

11/72

11/72

5/80
10/79
8/80 <
3/81 '

10/69*

39
32

33
12,21

10/80
10/80

11/72
12/74

970
965
951
974
963
967

38
37
36
38
36
37

3/81
10/80
12/80
10/80
9/80
5/80

11/68*
11/68*
4/69*

966

12/80

962
975
952
950
964

11/80
10/80
12/80
12/80
9/80

6/69*
11/68*

971
968
976
978
977
960
972
973
961

10/80
12/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
10/79
10/80
10/80
9/80

11/68*
5/69*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*

NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.




Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

1/72*
1/72

87
82

87

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

11/68*
11/68*

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Earnings-See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments
Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments, rate of change
Employees in mining, mfg., and construction
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonag. payrolls, Dl
Employment, ratio to population
Employment, total civilian
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, mfg. production workers
Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployed, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment, total civilian
Workweek, mfg. production workers
Workweek, mfg. production workers, components
Workweek, mfg. production workers, Dl
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Exports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.

Federal funds rate
Federal Government-See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, and money, Cl
Fixed investment-See Investment, capital.
Fixed weighted price index, NIPA
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes, NIPA
Food-See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade-See also International transactions.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Exports of goods and services, exc. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted,exc. military
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA . . . .
Imports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA
Imports of goods and services, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Net exports, goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Net exports, goods and services, current dol., NIPA . . .
Net exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA
France-See International comparisons.
Free reserves

Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget, NIPA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit . . :
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

2
441

48c
40
974
41
963
90
442
46
60
5
962
3
913
21
453
452
451
448
42
4
446
445
447
444
91
44
45
43
37
1

39
17
38
14, 17
36
18
51
17
17
16
36
12, 16
11
16
51
51
51
51
17
16
51
51
51
51
15, 18
18
18
18
18, 51
12, 16

961

36*

119

62
76
62
74
62
89
61
61
61
74
61
60
61
89
89
89
89
62
61
89
89
89
89
62
62
62
62
62
61
77
74

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
issue date! issue date]

8/80
2/81

8/68
4/72*

3/81

8/68*

3/81
9/80
10/80
9/80
9/80
2/81
2/81
11/80
3/81
7/80
11/80
8/80
9/80
8/80
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
8/80
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
8/80

8/68*
11/68*
8/68
4/72*
12/74
6/69*
6/69*
8/68*
12/74

4/72*

11/80

94
213
917

33
40
11

72
80
60

9/80
10/79
9/80

311
311c

48
48

84
84

11/79
11/79

667
622
618
602
604
256
252
668
606
620
612
616
257
253
669
614
255
250
251

57
57
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
44
44
47

93
93
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
82
82
83

7/80
7/80
7/80
8/80
8/80
11/79
4/81
7/80
8/80
7/80
8/80
8/80
11/79
11/79
7/80
8/80
11/79
4/81
4/81

72

9/80

Gross business product
Fixed weighted price index
Fixed weighted price ifidex, percent changes
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
G NP, ratio to money supply
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Implicit price deflator, percent changes
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic invest.-See Investment, capital.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Tables

Series
descriptions
issue date) issue date)

311
311c
68

48
48
30

84
84
70

11/79
11/79
4/81

50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
310c
217

19

10/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
4/81
4/81
11/79
11/79
10/79

10/69*

40

63,80
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
84
80

17
17

61
61

11/80
3/81

12/74

16
12,16

39
40
31
20
48
48

7/68
10/69*
10/69*
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69*
10/69*
10/69

H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment .,
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
Average workweek
Average workweek, components
Average workweek, Dl
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits .
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

12/74
8/68

961

36

61
61
77
74
67
67
67
83

3/81
8/80
4/81
4/81

6/72
4/69

249

25
13,25
25
47

310
310c

48

84

11/79
11/79

10/69*
10/69*

345

49

87

11/80

10/72*

345c
280
64

50
45
30,47

87
82
70,83

11/80
11/79
4/81

10/72*
10/69

346

49

8/80

9/80

10/69*

I

4/72*
6/69
4/72
4/72*
8/68

9/80

72

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

11/73

5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69'
10/69
11/72

20

63

4/81

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

52
52
52
52
52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
83

9/79
9/79
9/79
10/79
10/79
10/79
11/79

7/68*
7/68*
7/68*

263
262
265
564
267
266
268
261
260

43
43
47
55
43
43
47
43
43

81
81
83
91
81
81
83
81
81

11/79
11/79
11/79
10/79
11/79
11/79
11/79
11/79
11/79

11/73
10/69
10/69*
10/69*
11/73
10/69
10/69*

10/69

10/69

Implicit price deflator, GNP
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Imports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
«
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income ..
Corporate profits with IVA and CCA
Corp. profits with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income .
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant d o l . . .
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes .
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income, less transfers, constant dollars
Personal income, less transfers, constant dols. rate of chg.
Personal income, ratio to money supply
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCA
Rental income of persons with CCA, pet. of nat'l. income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . . . .
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial materials prices, Dl
Industrial production - See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
Installment debt-See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance
Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance, Dl . . .
Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate

346c
95
286
287
225
224

50
15,35
45
47
40
40

227

40

10/72*
88
73
82
83
80
80
80

49
87

340c

50

341

49

341c

87

652
651
288
289
220
52
223
51
51c
108
282
283
284
285
348
349
53
13
23

50
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
14,19
39
31
45
47
45
47
50
50
19
23
28

967

37

76
75
73
74
47

24
22
20
20
14,20,58

966
47c

37
39

5
962
45

16
36
18

11/80

8/79
11/79
11/79
4/81
4/81
4/81

87
340

10/69*
11/80

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
63
71"
82
83
82
83
63
65
69
79
75
67
65
63
63
63,94
78
75

61
74
62

10/72*
10/69
10/69*
10/69
.10/69
10/69

10/80
6/72*
10/80
6/72*
10/80
6/72*
10/80

7/80
7/80
11/79
11/79
4/81
2/80
1/80
10/80
10/80
2/81
11/79
11/79
11/79
11/79
n/79
n/79

6/72*
5/69*
5/69*
10/69
10/69*
10/69
7/68*
10/69
10/69*
10/69
10/69*
6/72*
6/72*

4/80
3/80
5/80

4/69

5/80*

4/69*

1/80
12/79
12/79
12/79
9/80

11/68

12/80
9/80
7/80
11/80
2/81

6/69
6/69*
6/69

NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.




111

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials-See Wholesale prices.
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada, index
Canada, percent changes
France, index
France, percent changes
Italy, index
Italy, percent changes
Japan, index
Japan, percent changes
United Kingdom, index
United Kingdom, percent changes
United States, index
United States, percent changes
West Germany, index
West Germany, percent changes
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France . .
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Ini national transactions—See also Foreign trade.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, exc. military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports of automobiles and parts
I mports of goods and services, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories on hand and on order, net change
Inventories to sales ratio, mfg. and trade (deflated) . . . .
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.,
change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl . . . . . .
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business and machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Inventories, business, change in-See Inventories.
Nonresidential, total constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, percent of GNP
Producers' durable equip., nonresid., constant dol. . .
Residential, total, constant dollars
Residential, total, percent of GNP
Structures, nonresidential, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, capital goods, nondefense, constant
dollars
New orders, capital goods, nondefense, current
dollars

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
issue date! (issue date]

288
289

11/79
11/79

10/69
10/69*

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115

3/81
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80

12/74
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, Dl
Contracts and orders, constant dollars.
Contracts and orders, current dollars..
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investments in U.S. . .
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Italy-See International comparisons.

Tables

112

Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date! issue date)

61
970
20
10

24
38
12,23
23

67
76
66
66

3/81
3/81
7/80
7/80

9/68*

652
651

57
57

93
93

7/80
7/80

5/69*
5/69*

30
15,30
30
29

4/81
12/79
7/80
7/80

7/68
11/68
10/72

930
930c
952
3

10
39
36
12,16

1/81
1/81
12/80
8/80

11/75*

910
910c
950
14
104

10
39
36
33
13,31

1/81
5/75*
1/81
12/80 '
10/80
2/81

11/68
11/68*

Japan-See International comparisons.
733
733c
736
736c
737
737c
738
738c
732
732c
320
320c
735
735c

59
59*"
59*"
59*"
59
49
49,59
59*'

96
96
95
95
96
96
95
95
95
95
84,95
84,95
95
95

11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
11/80
3/81
3/81
11/80
11/80
12/80
12/80
12/80
12/80
12/80
12/80
9/80
12/80

723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725

58
58
58
58
58
58
14,20,58
58

94
94
94
94
94
94
63,94

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

6/79
6/79
6/79
6/79
6/79
6/79
6/79

667
622
618
602
604
668
606
620
612
616
669
614
652
651

57
57
57
56
56
57
56
57
56
56
57
56
57
57

93
93
93
92
92
93
92
93
92
92
93
92
93
93

7/80
7/80
7/80
8/80
8/80
7/80
8/80
7/80
8/80
8/80
7/80
8/80
7/80
7/80

30
245
247
65
36
77
915
70
71
31
975
78

26,42
42
47
27
13,26
27
11
15,27
27
26
38
27

68,81
81
83
68
68
68
60

4/81
4/81
4/81
8/80
3/81
1/80
9/80
12/79
12/79
9/80
10/80
8/80

9/72*
9/72*
9/72*
9/72*
9/72*
5/69*
5/69*
9/72*
10/72*
10/72*
10/72*
10/72*
10/72*
11/68
10/72*

5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*

Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector .
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business......
Labor force-See Employment and unemployment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
...........
Diffusion index
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
D if fusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans-See Credit.

8/68*

M
Man-hours-See Employment and unemployment.
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.
change .
Materials, crude and inter mediate-See Wholesale prices.
Materials, industrial-See Price indexes.
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials, rate of capacity utilization
Merchandise trade-See Foreign trade.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply M1
Money supply M l , percent changes
Money supply M2
..........
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortage yields secondary market
Municipal bond yields

60

913
78

9/80
8/80

26
12,21
20

3/81
9/79

917

11

9/80

104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117

13,31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
4/81
2/81
3/81
11/80
11/80

27
24
8
?0
10
548
7

23
23
12,21
12,23
23
53
21
21

8/80
3/81
7/80
7/80
8/80
3/81
3/81

10/72
10/72

7/64*
7/64

N

26

914
9

24
24
37
11
23

10/69
10/69*
9/68

2/69
2/69
11/68*

8/80
10/80
10/80
10/80
9/80
3/81

243
242

42
42

4/81
4/81

86
248
88
89
249
87
241
240

25
47
25
25
47
25
42
42

4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81

10/69*
10/69*
10/69

23
23

9/68
9/68"
9/68"

964
971

9/80
10/80

11/68

87
86
248

4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81

10/69

517
721

3/81
12/80

9/68*

24

24

National defense-See Defense.
National Government-See Government.
National income-See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant d o l . . .
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dol
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars . . . .
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., constant dol.
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., current dol. .
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP

8/80

9/68

Obligations incurred, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production . . .
Orders—See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Output-See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Per hour, private business sector
Per hour, private business sector, percent changes .
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (BEA)
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB)
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing

19
52
358
370
370c
83
82
84
21

NOTE: The following abbreviations
tions are used in this index: Cl, icomposite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been
leen changed sin
since the publication date shown.




Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

20
15,30
50
50
50
20
20
20
16

4/81
12/79

11/68
6/68*
10/72
10/72

9/79*
9/79
9/79
12/74

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income-See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and products, imports
Plant and equipment-See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Business expenditues for, Dl
Contracts and orders for, constant dollars
Contracts and orders for, current dollars
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
All items, index
All items, percent changes
Food,index
Food, percent changes
Deflators, NIPA
Fixed weighted, gross business product, index
Fixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changes
Implicit price deflator, GNP, index
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Industrial materials
Industrial materials, components
Industrial materials, Dl
Labor cost, price per unit of
Sensitive prices, change in
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities, percent change
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
Crude materials, index
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contracts, military
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresid., GPDI
Production-See Industrial production and GNP.
Productivity
Output per hour, nonfarm business" sector
Output per hour, private business sector
Output per hour, private business sector, pet. changes .
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA,
constant dollar
Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA, cur. dol. . . .
Corporate, with IVA and CCA
Corporate, with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income . . .
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCA to corporate domestic
income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. inc..

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
data
lescriptions
[issue date) [issue date)

51
51
51

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47

4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81
4/81

292
293
614

46
46
56

11/79
11/79

10/69
7/68*

61
970
20
10
90

24
38
12,23
23
18

3/81
3/81
7/80
7/80
2/81

11/68
11/68*

320
320c
322
322c

49
49,59
49
49

84,95
84,95
84
84

3/81
3/81
3/81
3/81

5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*

311
311c
310
310c
23

48
48
48
48
28

11/79
11/79
11/79
11/79
5/80

10/69*
10/69*
4/69

967
26
92

37
29
13,28

84
84
84
84
69
79
75
70
69

5/80
7/80
4/81

4/69*

19
968

13,28
37

69
75

3/81
12/80

5/69
5/69*

330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
26

48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48

6/80
6/80
5/80
5/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
7/80

6/69*

29

85
85
86
86
85
85
86
86
86
86
70

976
978
977
525
109

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

10/80
10/80
10/80
5/80
11/80

11/68*
11/68*
11/68*

25

67

4/81

358
370
370c

89

2/81
2/81
2/81

50
50
50
11

9/80*

18
16

28
28

4/81
4/81

80
79
286
287
972
960
15
916
22

28
28
45
47
38

37
29
11
29

4/81
4/81
11/79
11/79
10/80
10/79
7/80
9/80
4/81

81
282
283

29
45
47

4/81
11/79
11/79

16

8/80

285

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Series
Historical
descriptions
data
[issue date) issue date)

93
89
249

9/80
4/81
4/81

59
54

6/80
6/80

11/72
10/69*
6/72*

10/69*
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69*

9/68

Salaries-See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices-See Prices, selling.
Sensitive prices, change in
State and local government-See Government.
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order .
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
change
Surplus-See Government.

11/73

1/72
7/68

10/69
10/69
11/68
3/69"
7/68*

10/69
10/69

11/79

10/69

11/79

10/69^

40

10/79

69
57
56
973
77
59
54

24
14,22
22
38
27
22
22

8/80
1/80
1/80
10/80
1/80
6/80
6/80

295
298
290
292
293

46
46
46
46
46

11/79
11/79
11/79
11/79
11/79

13,28

4/81

13,28
37
27

3/81
12/80

5/69
5/69*

11/80
11/80

7/64
7/64

6/69
6/69*
8/68*

213

26

114
115

Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields . . .

6/68*
10/72
10/72

916

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDI . .
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures-See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
••_••••

453
452
451

Quit rate, manufacturing . .

Rental income of persons, with CCA
Rental income of persons, with CCA, percent of national
income

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

9/68*
2/69*
11/68*
6/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68*

68

U
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio . . .
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance, Dl .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Number unemployed, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females, 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males, 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Quit rate, manufacturing
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
Insured, average weekly
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change in
United Kingdom-See International comparis

Velocity of money
GNP to money supply M l , ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance

91
60
5
962
3

15,18
17
16
36
12,16

2/81
3/81
7/80
11/80
8/80

446
445
447
444
37
4

51
51
51
51
18,51
16

2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
2/81
8/80

44
45
43

18
18
18

2/81
2/81
2/81

4/72
6/69
4/72

96
25

21
21

8/80

9/68

107
108
32

31
31
12,21

4/81
2/81
10/80

12/74

4/72*

W
Wages and salaries-See Compensation.
West Germany-See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities, percent changes
Consumer finished goods, index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes
Crude materials, index
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials, index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
Sensitive prices, change in
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing . . . .
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing,
components
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl .

330
330c
334
334c
331
331c
332
332c
333
333c
92
1

13,28
12,16

961

36

6/80
6/80
5/80
5/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
6/80
4/81

6/69*

8/68

9/80

NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.




113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect relationships or order among the
series. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data;
"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are
referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System.

Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(23,66)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current
dollars (M).—Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)

Following the source for each series is an indication of the
pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding
Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each
series.

13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
(23,65)

I-A. Composite Indexes

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes
series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 106)
913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments
(includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all
manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(29,70)

914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

915. Composite index of inventory investment and
purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 92) (M).-Source
1
(1160)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19, 26,

18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(28,69)

(M).-Source 1

(10,39,60)

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National
Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,71)
34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(29,70)
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972
dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(13,26,68)
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)
38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and
on order, manufacturing (M).—Source 2
(26,68)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM). —American Bankers
Association
(33,72)
40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries—mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Source 3
(14,17,62)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(17,62)
43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources 2 and 3(18,62)

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks ( M ) . Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and
over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,62)

917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes
series 104, 106, 110) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment
and Training Administration
(18,62)

920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(16,61)

46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—
The Conference Board
(17,61)

930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
income (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials
(M).-Source 3
(28,69,79)

80) (M).-Source 1

(11,60)

940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(1160)

1-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (16,61)

24. Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).-Source
2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)

47. Index of industrial production, total (M).—Source
4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
48. Employee-hours

(M).-Source 3

in nonagricultural

establishments

(17,39,61)

49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
business sector (Q).-Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)

52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source

27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources
1, 2, and 3
(23,66)

53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and
3
(19,63)

28. New private housing units started, total (M).—Source
2
(25,67)

54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-Source

29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)

55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles ( Q ) . Source 1
(22,65)

7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(21,64)

30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(26,42,68,81)

56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars ( M ) . Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)

8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(12,21,64)

31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving
slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (12,16,61)
4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3
5. Average weekly initial claims for
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S.
Labor, Employment and Training
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
Analysis

(16,61)

unemployment
Department of
Administration;
of Economic
(16,61)

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in current dollars (M).-Source 2(21,64,77)

114




1

2

(19,63)

(22,65)

57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M).—
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
2, and 3
(22,65)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)
(M).—Sources l r 2, 3, and The Conference
Board
(17,61)

84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).-Source
4
(20,64)

61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)

86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)

62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of
industrial production, manufacturing (M).—Sources 1
and 4
(15,30,70)

87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)

63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).—
Source 3
(30,70)

89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of
working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(18,62)

65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Source
2
(27,68)

91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(15,18,62)

66. Consumer installment credit (EOM).-Source 4; FRB
seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally
adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current
figure
(35,73)

88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(25,67)

92. Chance in sensitive crude materials prices (PPI of crude
materials less agricultural products) (smoothed) (M).—
Sources 1 and 3
(13,28,69)
93. Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Source 4
(33,72)
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)

68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic
product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio
of current-dollar compensation of employees to real
gross corporate product (Q).—Source 1
(30,70)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
(EOM).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars
(EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(15,27,68)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,
in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).-Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(15,35,73)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures
(M).-Source 4
(20,63)
74. Index of industrial production,
manufactures (M).-Source 4

nondurable
(20,63)

75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods ( M ) . Source 4
(22,65)
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(24,67)
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales
(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).—
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(27,68)
78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (EOM).—Source 2
(27,68)
79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(28,69)
80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(28,69)
81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate
domestic income (Q).-Source 1
(29,70)
82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).—Source
4
(20,64)
83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).—
Source 1
(20,64)



(34,72)

1-C. Diffusion Indexes
85. Change in money supply Ml-B (M).-Source 4(31,71)

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source
4
(35,73)

69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).—Source
2
(24,67)

119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board (24,66)
102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).-Sources
1 and 4
(13,31,71)

950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
700 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(35,75)
961. Diffusion index of average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing—20 industries (M).-Sources 1
and 3
(36,74,77)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).—Source 1
and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(36,74)
963. Diffusion index of number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls—172 industries (M).-Source
3
(36,74)
964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries—35 industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital
appropriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries
(Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries
(M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials—
13 industrial materials (M)-Sources 1 and 3

(37,75,79)

105. Money supply Ml-B in 1972 dollars (M(.-Sources 1, 3,
and 4
(31,71)

968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—
53-82 industries ( M ) . - S t a n d a r d & Poor's
Corporation
(37,75)

106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3,
and 4
(13,31,71)

970. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, total—18 industries (Q).—Source
1
(38,76)

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml-B
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 ( M ) . Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
4
(35,73)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).—Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,72)
113. Net change in consumer installment credit (M).-Source
4
(32,72)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Source 4
(34,72)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).—U.S.
Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
( M ) . - C i t i b a n k and U.S. Department of the
Treasury
(34,73)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration
(34,73)

971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
700 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and tradeabout 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing
and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(38,76)
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about
700 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

115

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about
450 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 250
businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)

Il-A. National Income and Product
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(26, 42, 68, 81)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(40,80)
213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(40,80)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)
223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
(40,63)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)
225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent
of gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1

248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential,
as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)

295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits plus
capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (Q).-Source
1
(46,82)

249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as
a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)
250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44.82)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82)
257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

(46,82)

293. Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of
disposable personal income (Q).—Source 1 (46,83)

298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Source
1
(46,83)

I I B . Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(48,84)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).—Source
3
(49,59,84,95)
322. Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Source 3(49,84)
330. Index of producer prices, all commodities (M).-Source
3
(48,85)
331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for further
processing (M).-Source 3
(48,85)
332. Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
333. Index of producer prices, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Index of producer prices, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Index of producer prices, industrial commodities ( M ) . Source 3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in
manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,
and seasonality (M).-Source 3
(49,87)

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(43,81)
267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)

341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (M).—Source
3
(49,87)

268. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)

280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes (Q).—Source
3
(50,88)

(45,82)

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)

345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,87)

237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).—
Source 3
(50,88)

238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)

358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income ( Q ) . Source 1
(47,83)

370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
'
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(42,81)

116




286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(47,82)
287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)

(45,82)

441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)

47. United States, index of industrial production, total

446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

570. Employment in defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,91)

320. United States, index of consumer prices, all items

447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force
survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
448. Number employed, part-time workers for economic
reasons, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and

3

(51,89)

451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

577. Defense Department personnel, military, active duty
(EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Washington Headquarters Services
(55,91)
578. Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hire
employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91)

453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19
years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and
military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense,
OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and
Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(54,91)

Il-D. Government Activities

588. Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(M).-Source 2
(54,91)

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income
and product accounts (Q).—Source 1
(52,90)

Il-E. U.S. International Transactions

501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total ( M ) . Source 2
(56,92)

502. Federal Government expenditures; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)

604. Exports of agricultural products (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)

452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)

510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90)
511. State and local government receipts; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
512. State and local government expenditures; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—
U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90)
525. Defense Department military prime contract awards for
work performed in the United States (M).-U.S.
Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington
Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial
Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products
( M ) . - Source 2
(53,90)
557. Output of defense and space equipment (M).— Source

(56,92)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants

(Q).-Source 1

(57,93)

620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1 (57,93)
651. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q).-Source
1
(57,93)
652. Income on foreign investments in the United States

(Q).-Source 1

(M).-Source 3

(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
(48,59,84,95)

721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—
Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—
Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)
727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Instituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612. General imports, total (M).-Source 2

(M).-Source 4

(57,93)

667. Balance on goods and services (Q).-Source 1(57,93)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
732. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).—
Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95)
733. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, index of consumer prices ( M ) . Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis

(59,95)
736. France, index of consumer prices (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstituto Centrale
di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The
Financial Times (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Statistics Canada
(Ottawa)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)

(54,91)

668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

559. Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)

669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)

746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(59,96)

561. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)

Il-F. International Comparisons

747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Instituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(59,96)

4

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)




19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96)

748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Tokyo)
(59,96)

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