Full text of Business Conditions Digest : April 1975
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This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and
review,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-7106)
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the
list of series and sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Frederick B. Dent, Secretary
James L. Pate, Assistant Secretary
for Economic Affairs
Social and Economic Statistics Administration
Edward D. Failor, Administrator
Edgar R. Fiedler, Chairman
Department of the Treasury
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Management and Budget
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers,
Executive Office of the President
George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce
J. Cortland Peret, Federal Reserve Board
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
A/a tion's econom y.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for National
Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $55.25 a year ($13.85 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $4.35. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts anc
forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis o
business conditions and was based largely on the list o
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators main
tained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Some other approaches commonly used by students o
economic conditions include econometric models anc
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric mode
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationship;
among consumption, private investment, government, anc
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations o1
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained ir
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis o1
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau ol
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Sup
tendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, V
ington, D.C. 20402.
New Features and Changes for This Issue
BCB
iii
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
MARCH 1975
Data Through February
Series ES1 No. 75-3
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
H
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D3
D4
D5
Foreign Trade
48
Balance of Payments and Major Components ... 49
Federal Government Activities
54
Price Movements
56
Wages and Productivity
58
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components ... 60
20
23
25
28
30
33
37
39
Actual and Potential Gross National Product ... 61
Analytical Ratios
62
Diffusion Indexes
63
Rates of Change
65
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the
transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this
periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through
September 1, 1975.
44
46
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
B8
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
66
67
68
II.
NATIONAL
PRODUCT
Gross National Product
,
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services ,
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
69
69
70
70
71
71
71
71
72
72
73
ANTICIPATIONS Af
i JELLj Aggregate Series
C2 ! Diffusion Indexes
INTENTION?
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
j D2 i Balance of Payments and Major Components
IK—--—"»-4
j D3 \ Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
D6 j Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
84
84
86
87
89
90
92
94
ANALYTICAL
B7
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Selected indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
74
76
77
78
79
81
83
LJLLJ Actual and Potential GNP
ME2_j Analytical Ratios
[JE3 | Diffusion Indexes
[ E4 j Selected Diffusion Index Components
INTERNATIONAL
FJ J Consumer Prices
F2_j Industrial Production
F3 I Stock Prices
95
96
97
99
103
103
104
III.
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See December 1974 issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See November 1974 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 (See February 1975issue)
F. Specif ic Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
105
106
111
112
117
121
srs are invited to submit comments and
stions concerning this publication.
sss them to Feliks Tamm, Statistical
ators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20233
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, new/y available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
jes in this issue are as follows:
seasonal adjustment
1. The series on Average weekly insured unemployment
3 (series 45) has been revised for the period 1973 to
3. This revision reflects the source agency's new
sonal adjustment of the data for this period. Additional
>rmation concerning this revision may be obtained from
Office of Administration Management, Manpower Administrai, U.S. Department of Labor.
2. Basic data for the series on Change in monfey supply
3 time deposits at banks and nonbank institutions (series
) have been revised by the source agency for the period
) to date. These data now include credit union shares
ig other nonbank deposits. Revised data for series 103
shown in this issue for the period beginning March 1974Lsed data for the earlier period will be shown in a
sequent issue.
Further information concerning this revision may be
lined from the Banking Section, Division of Research and
:istics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
3. Appendix C contains historical data for series 10,
28, 29, 33, 37, 59, 63, 63c, 72, 112, 745, 745c, 746,
5, 770, 770c, and 858.
4. Recession comparisons are shown in appendix G for
Les 1, 5, 19, 29, 41, 43, 47, 48, 114, 205, 781c, and 825.
May issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
sase
on June 2.
iii
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
6 SESA PROJECTS
for economic
analysis
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST A monthly report for analyzing
economic fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together approximately 600 economic time series in a form convenient for analysts whether their approach to the study of current business conditions and prospects is the national income model, the leading indicators, anticipations
and intentions, or a combination of these. Other types of data such as foreign trade,
Federal Government activities, and international series are included to facilitate a
more complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts and tables. Appendixes provide historical data, series
descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability. A computer
tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.
DEFENSE INDICATORS A monthly report for analyzing the current and prospective impact of defense activity on the national economy.
This report brings together the principal time series on defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national economy. These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders, shipments, inventories, expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 60 time series included are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense orderproduction-delivery process. Charts and analytical tables facilitate interpretation.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH A report for the study of economic trends over a long span of years, 1860-1970.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive,
long-range view of the U.S. economy. It is a basic research document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together under one cover, in
meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical basis for a study of longterm economic trends. A computer tape file of the time series included in the report
is available for purchase.
COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS The
source statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by SESA in its analysis
of time series are available on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS.—Two variants of the Census computer program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations. They are particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The X-ll variant is used for adjusting monthly data and
the X—11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.
DIFFUSION INDEX PROGRAM.—A computer program for computing diffusion indexes,
cumulated diffusion indexes, and summary measures of the properties of each index.
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS A monthly report for analyzing current economic developments.
This report provides a useful combination of current data for more than 2,500
statistical series and significant articles analyzing economic developments. These
data and analyses include such areas as the national income and product accounts,
the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment expenditures, regional
personal income, and the input-output accounts.
BUSINESS STATISTICS A biennial reference volume containing
statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.
This report provides historical data back to 1947 for nearly 2,500 time series. The
series are accompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of
compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and
addresses of organizations which provide the basic data for the series.
IV
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1953 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for
series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or
trading days in each month. As used in
this report, the term "seasonal adjustment"
includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown
here on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCDfor will
be; thus, MCD is 1 for the
Digitized
FRASER
smoothest series and 6 for the most
erratic. MCD moving averages (that is,
moving averages of the period equal to
MCD) tend to have about the same degree
of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term
moving average of a series with an MCD
of 5 will show its cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research,, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER,
aggregate
economic
activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As
a matter of general practice, neither new
reference turning dates nor the shading
for recessions will be entered on the charts
until after both the new reference peak
and the new reference trough bounding
the shaded area have been designated.
This policy is followed because of the
conceptual and empirical difficulties of
designating a current recession and the
practical difficulties of terminating the
shading of a current recession without
including part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories
valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is
provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and serv
ices includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section A. Other major aggregates taken from
the national income and product accounts
are described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated. The implicit price deflator (computed by dividing the current-dollar data
by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP
is also shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this
section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 79 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists
of 26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. In addition, there are five indexes
based on leading indicators which have
been grouped by economic process. These
indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so
that its long-run trend parallels that of
the coincident index. This facilitates comparisons among the leading, coincident,
Cross-C!assif'C^""p c^ C/ciicai incic^
Economic P^^cess anct Cvr.»ca» "">
f\
Economic i
Process \
,
1
! Cyclical
1 Timing
!
| EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(13 series)
PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)
Ml. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS, i
AND PROFITS
j
(14 series)
:
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(20 series)
\
\i
; Marginal employment
'
adjustments
i
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS \
!
(40 series)
'
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
:
Sensitive commodity
prices (i series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
{1 series)
Interest rates
(5 series)
Unit labor costs
(3 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates
(3 series)
•
;
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT:
INDICATORS
(26 series)
Job vacancies
(X series)
Comprehensive
employment
<3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(13 series)
Comprehensive
production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (4 series)
Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
;
j
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten
the leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these
series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments. In
some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
.. .-,""' - ; ' ; : ; : "
OTHER KEY
^DICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such
though by no means a comDigitized
for series,
FRASER
prehensive selection. In general, these
series reflect processes which are not
direct measures of economic activity but
which do have a significant bearing on
business conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures,
and their balance, and selected defense
activities. The receipts and expenditures
data are from the national income and
product accounts. The defense series are
only a few of the many available. For a
more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis publication.
Three other groups of series are included
in this section. The price movements
series consist of consumer and wholesale
price indexes and their major components.
The series on wages and productivity include measures of hourly earnings and
output per man-hour and also rates of
change for most of these measures. The
final group of series measures the civilian
labor force and its major components, including unemployment rates for selected
segments of the labor force.
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic varia-
bles (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
Lit.
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) as
designated by NBER.
Basic Data
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates em
of recession and beginning o
Expansion as designated b1
NBER.
Arabic number indicates lates
mMti1 for which data are plotted
("6" = June)
Roman number indicates lates
$/ quarter for which data an
/
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter;
Dotted line indicates anticipatec
data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to high
light the patterns of the individua
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetii
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarith
mic scale with 1 cycle in a giver
distance, "scale L-2" is a log
arithmic scale with 2 cycles ir
that distance, etc. The scale:
should be carefully noted becaus<
they show whether the plottec
lines for various series are di
rectly comparable.
Scale shows percent of compo
nents rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted iy2, 2,
or 2*/2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates lates
month for which data are usec
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates lates
quarter for which data are usec
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting point
indicates quarterly data over vari
ous spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts ol
anticipations and intentions date
(section C) and balance of pay
ments data (section D) do no
conform to the above method o
presentation. Deviations are ade
quately explained as they occur
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according
to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed ii
numerical order according to series numbers within each of thi
Digest's six sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data 1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
PE rcent change
1972
4th Q
1973
1974
1973
2d Q
1974
1st Q
1974
4th Q
1974
3d Q
1974
1st Q
1975
,_
E
rj
4th Q
to
1stQ
1975
3dQ
to
4th Q
1974
2dQ
to
3dQ
1974
Average
83
£
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
200.
205
210
215.
217
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann. rate, bil.dol. . 1158.0 1294.9 1397.4 1344.0 1358.8 1383.8 1416.3 1430.9 1419.2
839.?
do
792.5
821.2
845.7
827. 1 823.1
830 5
804.0
782.3
154.3
146.1
1958-100
158.9
167.3
172.1
170.2
163 6
178.0
131.4
6,536
Ann. rate, dol. . . . 5,544
6,369
6,154
6,676
6,428
6,592
6,664
6,730
3,988
do
3,880
3,794
3,787
3,876
4, 007
3,673
3,907
3,929
2.3
-0.5
2.9
2.1
-0.7
1.0
-2 3
3 4
0.8
-2 4
-0.8
-2.7
1.9
-1.0
-3.0
200
205
210
215
217
946.5 1065.6 1142.5 1106.3 1118 8 1130.2 1155.5 1165.4
MA
9 4 4 . 9 1055.0 1150.5 1099.3 1112.5 1134.6 1168.2 1186.9 1193.0
802.5
903.7
939.4
979.7
993.1 1008.8 1017.4
950 6
966.5
580.5
619.6
622.9
602.9
602.8
610 3
603.^
591.0
594.8
2.2
3.0
2.8
-0. 1
0 9
1.6
1 6
-1 3
NA
0.5
0.9
-0.6
220
222
224
225
A2. National and Personal Income
220.
222.
224.
225.
226.
National income, current dollars
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
Personal income, current dollars
do .
Disposable personal income current dollars
do
Disposable personal income 1958 dollars
do
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
Ann rate dol
227. Per capita disposable pers. income, 1958 dol. . .
do
3,843
2,779
4,295
2,945
4,623
2,845
4,452
?,952
4, 497
2,887
4,565
2,850
4,681
2,842
4,745
2,798
4,777
2,775
2.5
-0.3
1 4
-1.5
-o.e
0.7
226
227
Ann rate bil dol
do
do
do
do
do
do
729.0
527.3
138.4
78.8
39.7
299.7
3109
805.2
552.1
130.3
86.9
43.4
338.0
336 9
876.7
539.5
127.5
9Q.O
37.5
380.2
369 0
823.9
546.3
124.3
86.3
38.0
352.1
347 4
840 6
539.7
123 9
88 1
35 8
364 4
352 4
869. 1
542.7
129.5
91.5
38. 0
375.8
363 8
901.3
547.2
136.1
92.5
43.6
389.0
376 2
895.8
528.2
120.7
88.1
32.6
391 .7
383 5
916.3
532.3
125.5
90.3
?5.2
399.3
391 5
3.7
0.8
5.1
1.1
14.7
3.5
3 4
-0 6
-3.5
-11 3
-4 8
-25 2
0 7
1 9
2.3
0.8
4.0
2.5
8.0
1.9
2 1
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
Gross private domestic investment total
Ann rate bil dol
Fixed investment, total nonresidential
do
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures . . .
do
Fixed investment, producers' durable equip. . . .
do
Fixed investment, residential structures
do
Change in business inventories, total2
do .
179 3
116.8
41.1
75.7
54.0
8.5
209 4
136.8
47.0
89.8
57.2
15.4
209 4
149 2
52.0
97.1
46.0
14.2
224 5
141 .9
49.3
92.6
53.6
28.9
210 5
145 2
51.3
93.9
4P 4
16 9
21 1 8
149.4
52.2
97.2
48 8
13.5
205 8
1^0.9
51.0
99.9
46.2
8.7
PQQ u
151.2
53.7
97.5
40 . 4
17.8
164 6
147.4
52.8
94.6
35 3
-18.0
-2 8
1 0
-2.3
2.8
-5 3
-4 8
21 4
-2 5
-1.7
-3.0
-129
-35 8
pun
0 2
5.3
-2.4
-12 6
9 1
-6.0
72.4
78.4
3.9
100.4
96.4
2.1
140 2
138.1
9.3
1136
104.3
11.3
131 2
119.9
-1.5
] 38 5
140.0
-3.1
143 6
146.7
1.9
147 5
145.7
5.4
143 5
138.1
-1.6
3 7
5.0
2 7
-0.7
3.5
-2 7
-5.2
250
252
253
332 8
127 7
85 2
2 6
2 5
2 3
? f.
3 7
6 2
7 1
260
2
9
2 8
2 6
1 4
p
3 A A.
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
234.
236.
237.
Total, current dollars
Total, 1958 dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars
Automobiles, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services current dollars
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240
241.
242.
243.
244.
245.
1
7
241
242
243
244
245
A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services2
252. Exports
253. Imports
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
4.e
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262.
264.
266
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
Ann rate bil dol
do
do
do
255
104
74
150
7
9
8
8
276
106
74
169
4
6
4
P
309
116
78
192
2
9
7
3
286
108
75
177
Ann rate bil dol
do
do
do
214
7
321
1
3
1
0
4
240
9
366
6
9
4
5
0
249
7
406
6
2
7
9
5
240 6
14 8
384 1
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
do
707.1
75 9
2S 9
92 2
45 6
786.0
96 1
26 1
105 1
52 3
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
173 4
C
2 6
do
do
do
4
4
3
9
3
5
8
8
304
114
76
1 9o
4
^
6
1
312 3
1172
78 4
1 Vb 1
323 8
242 3
8 7
392 8
piio
K
259 8
b' 7
Oil A O
1A 7
296
111
75
184
1 ?U S
84 0
1 QQ ^
ppc
1
Q
Pft p
pfta
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270.
271.
274.
275.
Final sales, durable goods
Change in business inventories, dur. goods2 . . .
Final sales, nondurable goods
Change in bus. inventories, nondur goods 2 . . . .
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj
Net interest
5
-1 ft
U 1 "3 2
ic
n
1U 1
8
855.8
93 0
26 5
105 6
61 6
814.8
103 2
26 4
1 06 4
55 5
828.8
98 4
26 4
1 n7 7
57 5
848.3
ftO Q
26 3
214 4
74 4
207 5
77 0
231 7
89 3
224 5
84 4
206 3
71 *>
23.3
102.9
-5. 1
25.7
110.8
3.5
17.3
119.5
-6 3
26.2
113.9
2 3
23.9
115.8
0 4
Ann rate bil dol
do
do
do . . .
do
785.4
7.0
83.7
34.3
39 1
828.4
10.8
94.4
32.9
44 2
812 5
8.7
94.0
24 0
33 6
825 7
20.0
96.0
29 8
41 6
819 9
10.6
96.3
26 4
29 2
do
61 0
57 3
56 5
56 4
CA
do
82 1
87 0
B9 5
89 3
89 7
?6.3
12.4
64.6
18.4
42.1
"*
A
2 p
pc, i 7
II
U
5
0
-11 2
U1 1 5
A ;j
7 5
12
ft
po
-1
3
875.4
2.3
1.1
i i
O
Q
2
-1
IM A
4 9
4 4
op a
l\ A
1 "^ R
90O
NA
1.7
N^
294
296
ft
3 ^
5.9
-5.2
-1 "5 ft
0 0
-21.9
-5.7
14 2
1
3
c
c;
/\
07r\
97 1
37ii
A8. National Income Components
868.2
(\ j
1
26 6
1 05 8
62 8
877.7
Q1
A
26 8
OK
A
Q
27 0
MA
68 8
196 4
65 5
50 9 Q
W A R.
74 8
—4 8
p u
17.1
118.6
-1 0
9.9
120.7
0 2
18.1
12?. 9
-24 6
NA
125.0
NA
-42.1
1.8
1 2
818 9
8.2
96.5
25 7
3? 6
818 1
5.0
94.1
?3 6
38 9
793 1
10.9
89.2
20 4
7°3 3
-11.0
64.1
175
27 3
-0 1
-3.2
-2.5
-R 2
1Q 1
1 ()£>
Art
&
1
6 *>
4 5
-0.3
7
O
0 7
280
PP/I
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, total
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2
A10.
NA
TJ
3
82.3
1.8
— OU
OQO
9Q A
Real GNP (1958 dollars)
273.
246.
247.
248.
249.
263.
Final sales, 1958 dollars
Change in bus. inventories, 1958 dollars 2
Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars .
Fixed investment, residential struc., 1958 dol. .
Gross auto product, 1958 dollars
Federal Government purchases of goods
and services 1958 dollars
267. State and local government purchases of
goods and services, 1958 dollars
T
•5-1 A
K
K"7
/\
89 5
P9 4
pg
-r
54.1
66.6
94.7
Ks
V
C;A
gf\
-7
O
1
- 1 1 ft
ia7
O
Q
1
0
1
4
0
07-1
246
247
9UR.
3UQ
263
1
9 A7
30.6
207
E1. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP gap (potential less actual), 1958 dol.2 ....
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
125.3
12.7
27.9
5
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
Jan.
3dQ
4th Q
1974
1974
1973
1974
163.4
155.5
138.5
164.4
171.3
165.8
136.3
205.1
102.0
120.3
123.2
118.6
118.1
92.6
115.0
133.0
125.0
110.7
40.7
40.0
40.1
Series number 1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Jan.
1975
1stQ
1975
Mar.
1975
Feb.
1975
Feb.
to
to
Feb.
1975
Mar.
1975
3dQ
to
4th Q
4th Q
to
IstQ
1974
1975
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
810.
820
825
830
12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.3
5 coincident indicators
5 coincident indicators deflated
6 lagging indicators
1967=100
do
do
do
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
813 Marginal employment adjustments
814 Capital investment commitments
815 Inventory investment and purchasing
816 Profitability
817 Sensitive financial flows
.
.
do
do
do
do
do
155.3
156.2
123.7
212.4
154.5
154.3
121.9
211.6
81.2
80.7
104.2
113.0
120.9
104.4
111.2
121.8
NA
104.0
111.3
121.4
90.3
91.6
91.3
39.2
38.8
38.7
163.8
165.5
132.2
219.7
154.7
156.1
123.6
213.6
154.4
157.6
125.2
216.9
94.1
85.5
116.0
136.7
127.6
112.1
109.1
124.6
123.1
NA
104.2
111.8
121.4
99.9
91.1
39.7
38.9
176.6
169.2
138.1
213.8
0.6
-1.0
-1.2
-2.1
-0.6
0.2
-1.6
0.7
1.4
-0.5
-1.2
-1.5
-0.4
NA
-0.4
0.1
-7.2
-2.2
-4.3
2.8
-9.1
-5.9
-8.9
-3.5
-5.6
-5.7
-6.5
-2.8
NA
-4.5
-10.3
810
820
825
830
813
814
815
816
817
-0.3
-0.3
-10.9
-1.4
-8.8
-0.3
-1.0
-2.0
1
0.0
NA
-0.5
-1.1
-0.7
NA
21
2
0.9
NA
-39.3
-1.2
-19.9
NA
5
3
-17.4
46
B1. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours,
production workers, manufacturing2
2. Accession rate, manufacturing2
*5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted4)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted4)2
do
Per 100 employ. ..
3.8
4.8
3.2
4.1
3.4
4.3
2.9
3.2
2.2
NA
2.3
3.1
2.2
3.3
2.2
NA
-0.1
Thousands
Per 100 employ. ..
240
0.9
349
1.5
328
1.2
457
2.4
548
NA
548
3.5
550
3.5
545
NA
-0.4
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT IN DIG A TORS
Job Vacancies:
46. Help-wanted advertising
1967=100
122
106
112
86
71
73
71
70
-2.7
-1.4
-23.2
149.64 151.32 151.97 150.70 146.83 148.29 146.47 145.72
76,833 78,337 78,661 78,320 76,753 77,227 76,678 76,353
80,957 32,443 82,902 82,347 80, 8? 1 81,179 80,701 80,584
-1.2
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.1
-0.8
-0.4
-0.7
-2.6
-2.0
-1.9
48
41
42
-0.5
-1.1
-1.8
43
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments. .
*41 Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
42 Persons engaged in nonagri activities
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43 Unemployment rate total (inverted4)2
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate (inverted4)2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(inverted4)2
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
over (inverted4)2
Hours
Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Thousands
do
Percent
-1.0
0.2
0.0
4.9
5.6
5.5
6.6
8.4
8.2
8.2
8.7
do
2.7
3.5
3.3
4.3
6.0
5.5
6.0
6.4
-0.5
-0.4
-1.0
-1.7
45
do
2.3
2.7
2.7
3.4
4.8
4.5
4.7
5.2
-0.2
-0.5
-0.7
-1.4
40
do
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.2
2.0
1.7
2.0
2.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.8
44
-1.0
-2.3
-3.3
-0.8
-2.7
-8.2
200
205
47
0.0
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205 GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
1967=100
1294.9 1397.4 1416.3 1430.9 1419.2
804.0 782.3
839.2 621.2
823.1
124.3 125.4
125.6
121.3
111.3
109.6
-2.6
Comprehensive Income:
*52 Personal income
53 Wages salaries in mining mfg construction
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
1055.0 1150.5 1168.2 1186.8 1193.0 1191.1 1193.4 1194.6
255.4 254.6
247.6 266.2 271.3
268.8 257.1 261.2
-2.2
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56 Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
*54 Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, deflated
Bil dol
...
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
Mil. dol
do
143.90
1279.6
41,943
33,477
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
1967=100
Number
117.9
112.6
114.7
106.2
?7,443 26,584 26,866 25,321
New Investment Commitments:
*6 New orders durable goods industries
8. Construction contracts, total value
*10. Contracts and orders for plant, equipment ...
11 New capital appropriations manufacturing
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense . . .
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings.
28. New private housing units started, total
*29. New building permits, private housing
Bil.dol
1967=100
Bil.dol
do
do
Mil. sq. feet
floor space
Ann. rate, thous . .
1967=100
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries5
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5
Bil.dol., EOP . . . .
do
164.10
1383.2
53,786
31,863
170.44
1407.6
46,530
32,475
1.0
113.7
110.7
NA 161.75 162.58
167.26
NA
1413.1 1437.1
45,031 46,445 45,955 46,830 46,550
30,472 31,093 30,880 31,395 31,005
0.2
0.5
0.1
-0.3
NA
1.6
-0.9
-0.6
-1.2
52
53
-3.2
-6.2
NA
1.7
3.1
2.0
56
57
54
59
-7.4
-5.8
NA
NA
12
13
-13.8
-11.3
-11.4
NA
6
8
10
11
24
-1.9
0.4
1.9
1.7
0.5
-4.4
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
6
101.8
NA
103.0
NA 24,406 24,285
NA
NA
-1.2
-0.5
2.7
0.0
NA
NA
41.22
184
12.28
10.82
10.32
44.43
171
13.54
14.16
11.53
47.86
178
1".?5
16.40
12.14
42.03
159
12.95
12.45
10.82
36. ?5
141
11.48
K'A
36.06
135
11.39
37.02
135
11.34
35.67
153
11.7?
-0.4
9.95
10.08
9.97
9.79
-1.1
-1.8
85.73
2,045
157.1
72.90
1,336
77.50
1,209
57.81
1,001
46.87
988
54.39
999
46.54
986
39.60
980
-14.4
-14.7
-1.3
90.6
78.7
67.0
60.5
58.8
61.5
61.2
109.86 129.9" 135.70 129.94 120.42 125.87 123.25 120.42
NA
36.66 50.42 50.31 50.42
4.6
-2.1
-3.6
13.3
3.4
-12.2
-10.7
-9.1
-P4.1
-10.9
-8.0
-18.9
-0.6
-0.5
-?5.4
-17.2
-14.9
-2.3
-4.2
-7.3
0.2
-1.3
-9.7
NA
9
28
29
96
97
Basic data 1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
3dQ
1974
1974
1973
4th Q
1974
IstQ
1975
Jan.
1975
Jan.
to
Feb.
1975
Mar.
1975
Feb.
1975
Feb.
to
Mar.
1975
3dQ
to
4th Q
1974
4th Q
to
IstQ
1975
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61 Business expend new plant and equip
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
99.74 111.92 113.99 116.22 all3.22
Ann.rate, bit. dol. .
134.71 152.63 152.51 158.33
do
NA 153.06 155.70
2.0
-2.6
61
NA
1.7
NA
3.7
NA
69
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus.2
*31. Change, mfg. and trade inven., book value2 ..
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories2
20. Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials,
supplies, book value2
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2®
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries2®
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus.2 . . .
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5
65. Mfrs ' inven. of finished goods, book value5
15.4
26.9
Ann.rate, bil. dol. .
do
Percent
Ann.rate, bil. dol. .
Percent
do
Bil. dol
14.2
47.8
8.7
59.2
17.8
52.9
-18.0
NA
63
55
56
46
6.4
13.9
17.7
78
83
84
88
2.41
66
1.67
64
3.20
0.1
-17.9
NA
-18.0
NA
9.1
-6.3
-35.8
NA
245
31
32
37
30
30
-7
0
-10
-14
37
11.2
MA
8.4
2.1
NA
-6.3
NA
-6.5
NA
20
75
62
64
64
58
0
-6
-9
-13
26
33
-1.92
17
-3.17
18
-4.07
16
-2.63
17
-2.82
-2
1.44
1
-31
-5.12
-16
-1.25
32
25
NA 271.84 270.36
NA
47.60
47.70
NA
NA
-0.5
0.2
NA
NA
5.1
7.6
NA
NA
71
65
0.6
0.7
-12.5
-6.9
23
4.6
-8.2
13.5
19
224.00 271.84 2 5 8 . 6 2 271.84
37.95
46.73
43.41
46.73
Bil. dol., EOP . . . .
.do
-0.19
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23, Industrial materials prices®
1967-100
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®
1941-43-10
219.0
222.4
194.7
181.2
180.1
181.1
182.3
107.43
82.84
75.66
69.42
78.81
72.56
80.10
83.78
72.9
50.2
85.0
53.1
94.3
58.2
79.5
46.9
NA
NA
-15.7
-19.4
NA
NA
16
18
11.2
5.0
106.1
114.5
79.0
12.1
5.6
116.1
129.0
81.3
13.5
5.9
118.7
138.6
86.4
11.1
4.9
120.8
125.5
74.0
NA
MA
116.2
MA
NA
118.2
116.0
114.3
-1.9
-1.5
-2.4
-1.0
1.8
-9.5
-14.4
NA
NA
-3.6
NA
NA
22
15
17
34
35
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities® . . 1967-100
55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A2 . . Percent
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
1967=100
125.9
0.8
129.2
154.1
1.9
153.8
160.8
2.1
160.2
165.6
0.7
166.1
168.3
0.4
168.0
167.5
0.5
168.2
168.4
0.5
166.0
168.9
0.?
167.8
O.b
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-0.3
-0.1
3.0
-1.4
3.7
1.6
-0.3
1.1
55
55
58
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
63 Unit labor cost total private economy
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
do
131.5
146.9
148.9
154.2
MA
3.6
NA
63
Dollars
1967-100
O.b79
121.7
0.978
132.5
0.993
134.7
1.023
138.5
MA
144.8
143.2
144.8
3.0
2.8
NA
4.5
68
62
5.98
4.62
1.57
4.54
3.82
-8.86
6.80
13.53
If-. 66
6.73
?.97
-0.72
85
8.51
7.12
4.47
6.92
8.54
3.32
9.74
12.56
6.42
2.82
2.45
1.62
102
do
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
8.38
6.63
7.00
4.01
6.11
10.57
10.22
4.46
13.97
48.01
35.54
34.36
23.10
MA
24.80
30.29
b.4V
NA
21.97
15.18 -23.79 -11.59 -34.55 -25.22 - 2 2 . 9 6
26.58
21.00
20.08
8.41
14.05
-3.25
-1.46
-4.81
2.84
7.65
-2.<40
177.64 162.74 156.44 125.47
NA
3.40
NA
9.33
-5.24
2.99
3.22
-11.26
NA
-11 .40 - 3 8 . 9 7
-17.30
1.79
-19.8
<NA
103
33
112
113
110
Credit Difficulties:
1 4. Liabilities of business failures (inverted4) © . .
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv.4)2 5 .
Mil. dol
Percent, EOP
191.55 2 5 4 . 4 3 201.03 298.03
?.?7
2.80
2.63
2.80
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 2 ®
Mil. dol
-1,389 -1/797 -2,982
-959
12.09
8.28
10.31
7.27
6.72
9.29
7.33
9.66
6.97
6.74
Profits
*16.
18.
22.
15.
*17.
34.
35.
and Profit Margins:
Corporate profits, after taxes, current dol. ...
Corporate profits, after taxes, 1958 dollars . . .
Ratio, profits to income originating in
corporate business2
Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 . . .
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars
173.1
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
Percent
Cents
1967-100
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
1
146.4
10.4
1.1
1.1
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
85. Change in money supply (M1 ) 2
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at commercial banks (M2)2
1 03. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
banks and nonbank institutions (M3)2
33. Change in mortgage debt2
112. Change in business loans2
*113. Change in consumer installment debt2
1 10. Total private borrowing
Interest Rates:
119 Federal funds rate 2 ®
114. Treasury bill rate2®
1 1 6. Corporate bond yields2®
1 1 5. Treasury bond yields2 ®
1 1 7. Municipal bond yields2 ®
Ann.rate,percent . .
do
Percent
do
do
do
do
8.74
7.03
7.89
6.31
5.19
10.51
7.87
9.4?
6.98
6.17
MA
MA
-51
6.30
5.87
9.16
6.70
6.65
391.14 4 2 3 . 4 5
NA
NA
-3.3
NA
-441
95
192
-536
7.13
6.4Q
9.17
6.68
6.82
6.24
5.58
q
.S4
h.66
6.39
5.54
5.D4
9.48
6.77
6.74
-0.89
-0.91
-0.33
-0.02
-0.43
NA
-48.3
-0.17
i\A
HM
14
39
-97 - 2 , 0 2 3
-9<jfc
93
-2.99
-1.46
-0.50
-0.27
-0.09
119
114
116
115
117
-0.70
-0.04
0.64
0.11
0.35
-?.80
-0.95
-0.65
-0, 30
0.02
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
1973
1974
3dQ
1974
4th Q
1974
Jan.
1975
1stQ
1975
Feb.
1975
Jan.
to
Feb.
1975
Mar.
1975
Feb.
to
Mar.
1975
3dQ
to
4th Q
1974
4th Q
to
IstQ
1975
Series number
1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6. Money and Credit-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt5
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Interest Rates:
109. Average prime rate charged by banks2©
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans2©
118. Mortgage yields, residential2©
Bil.dol., EOF . . . .
Bil. dol
Percent
144.52 152.93 153.74 152.93
NA 152.53 152.77
NA
106.08 125.3s 129.49 133.40 131.20 133.82 130.94 1?8.84
0.2
-2.2
NA
-1.6
-0.5
3.0
^A
-1.6
66
72
-0.99
-0.76
NA
-2.02
-1.70
NA
109
67
118
440
5.7
7.4
-10.7
0.4
!\IA
NA
500
502
506
508
512
do
do
8.02
8.30
8.19
10.80
11.2ft
9.55
11.99
12.40
10.18
11.00
11.64
NA
8.98
9.94
8.84
do
do
1967-100
Mil. dol
119
5,905
2,343
189
5,786
-190
8,166
3,186
207
8,357
-5Q8
8,361
3,144
215
8,959
-158
8,836
3,378
192
8,995
NA
MA
NA
NA
NA
3,191
-247
826
353
-703
363
-1,007 -1,475
-310
-1,364 -3,874 -5,666
-4,585 -4,463 -6,512
-2,018
-320 -4,277
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1,073
1,066
1,165
-1,992
-2,049
-3,957
NA
i\A
MA
NA
NA
NA
250
515
517
519
521
522
NA
NA
5.9
1.4
NA
NA
1.1
NA
600
601
602
264
616
621
648
625
10.05
3.96
7.93
-1.09
-1.03
8.99
8.«4
8.69
-0.15
-0.15
-210
9,412
3,295
187
9,622
917
8,789
3,166
172
7,ti72
NA
1,127
-6.6
-3.9
-3.0
-13.2
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1. Foreign Trade
500.
502.
506.
508.
512.
Merchandise trade balance2
Exports, excluding military aid
Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles .
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Mil. dol
....
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
IS! A
IMA
NA
NA
NA
!\A
D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
250.
515.
517.
519.
521 .
522.
Balance on goods and services2
Bal. on goods, services, and remittances2 . . . .
Balance on current account 2
Balance on curr. acct. and long-term capital 2 .
Net liquidity balance2
Official reserve transactions balance2
Mil. dol
do
do
do
do
do
4,327
596
112
-257
-1,902
-1,326
D3. Federal Government Activities
600.
601 .
602.
264.
616.
621.
648.
625.
Federal surplus or deficit, NIA2
Federal receipts, NIA
Federal expenditures, NIA
National defense purchases
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
Mil. dol
do
Bil.dol
Mil. dol
-5.6
258.5
264.2
74.4
7,085
1,571
1.71
2,954
-8.1
291.1
299.1
78.7
7,753
1,741
1.90
3,457
-1.9
302.8
304.7
78.4
8,052
1,818
2.10
3,716
-24.5
294.7
319.3
84.0
7,990
1,742
1.81
3,490
NA
NA
338.0
85.2
NA
NA
1.83
I\A
7,609
1,424
1.64
3,693
7,508
1,5C9
2.15
3,987
NA
NA
1.70
NA
-1.3
6.0
31.1
8.0
NA
NA
-20.9
NA
-?2.6
-2.7
4.8
7.1
-0.8
-4.2
-13.8
-6.1
1958=100
1967-100
Percent
1967=100
149.6
133.1
0.7
134.7
166.9
147.7
1.0
160.1
169.4
149.9
1.1
165.4
174.5
154.2
0.8
171.2
177.9
157.0
0.5
171.2
156.1
0.6
171.8
157.2
0.6
171.3
157.8
0.3
170.4
0.7
0.0
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
-0.5
3.0
2.9
-0.3
3.5
1.9
1.8
-0.3
0.0
211
781
781
750
146.6
158.3
160.3
164.0
167.2
166.0
166.9
168.7
0.5
1.1
2.3
2.0
740
110.1
107.2
107.0
106.3
106.3
106.1
106.1
106.8
0.0
0.7
0.0
741
95.73
148.7
111.7
114.8
113.4
90.97
161.6
109.4
111.7
110.3
90.97
163.7
109.3
111.8
110.1
89.36
167.6
108.7
110.4
109.1
87.72
NA
NA
NA
NA
88.12
87.69
87.35
-1.8
2.4
-0.5
-1.3
-0.9
-1.8
NA
NA
NA
NA
859
745
746
770
858
D4. Price Movements
21 1. Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product . . .
781. Consumer prices, all items©
781 c. Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 . . .
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities©
D5. Wages and Productivity
740. Average hourly earnings, production workers
do
in private nonfarm economy
741 . Real average hourly earnings, production
workers in private nonfarm economy
do
859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings,
1967 dol
nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers
745. Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm . . 1967=100
do
746. Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm
do
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy .
do
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . .
-0.7
-0.5
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
0.6
0.3
-0.2
-6.6
0.4
-0.7
-20.2
0.0
-1.8
-26.6
841
842
843
NA
-3.7
7.4
-7.4
NA
850
851
NA
-3.0
0.0
2.2
NA
-2.9
852
853
D6. Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components
841. Total civilian labor force
842. Total civilian employment
843. Number of persons unemployed (inverted)4 . .
Thousands
do
do
88,716 91,011 91,396 91,785 91,810 92,091 91,511 91,829
84,410 85,936 86,360 85,732 84,146 84,562 84,027 83,849
4,306
5,076
5,036
7,529
6,053
7,664
7,464
7,980
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 2 . . .
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . . . .
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries . . . .
853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods . .
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
persons unemployed
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2 @
Percent
Ratio
83.0
1.46
79.0
1.51
79.4
1.49
75.7
1.60
68.3
NA
1.68
1.66
NA
do
1967=100
2.87
93.2
3.31
100. «
3.42
101.0
3.42
103.2
NA
100.2
3.50
101.1
3.45
101.3
NA
9«.3
0.082
0.079
0.066
0.086
0.074
0.844
0.634
6.2
0.666
6.2
0.429
6.0
0.277
6.1
0.289
0.2H2
0.261
Ratio
do
Percent
D.«
-1.2
-1.4
0.2
30.3
-2.4
-7.4
-35.6
-0.2
-14.0
854
-35.4
0.1
860
857
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. *Series included in the 19R6 NBER "short list" of indicators.
NA = not available, a = anticipated.
EOP « end of period. S/A-seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are
those published by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II.
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Index for the latest month excludes series 12, 16, and 31, for which data are not yet available.
*Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
8
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart
(July)
P
Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
current dollars, Q (am. rate, kil
2B. 6NPin1958
GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rite, thous. dol
217. Par capita GNP in 1958 dollars,
(ann. rate, Ms. dol.)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
APRIL 1975
ItCII
9
Section A
Chart A2
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National income, current dollars, Q (ann. rate, Ml. dol.)
222. Personal income, current dollars, 0
(ann. rate, Ml. dol.
224. Disposable personal inclffne"
current dollars, Q
(aim. rate, Ml. dol.
225. Disposable personal income, 1958
dollars, 0 (ann. rate, til. dol.)
226. Per capita disposable personal income, current dollaFsTf
(ann. rate, thous. dol.)
227. Per capita disposable personal i®
1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.)
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
10
APRIL 1975
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL !NO:Wr . ' : - .
Chart A3
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Nnf i >r«v.
rate, WDn dollars
230. ToW, carrart dollars, 0
233. toafcle goods, total extlBdii? ammbiles, -S
am* dollars. Q
-=***——
234. Automobiles, cwrent
236. MofldHrable goods, total, current dollars, Q
237. Services, total, current dollars, Q
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
APRIL 1975
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A4
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
241. Nonresidential fixed investment, total, Q
241 Nonresidential structures, Q
245. Change Is business inventories, Q
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
12
APRIL 1975
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A5
FOREIGN TRADE
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
252. Exports of goods and services,
253. Imports of goods and services, 9
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
APRIL 1975
!!€!»
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1953 54
55
56
57
58
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
14
APRIL 1975
ItCIt
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
P
T
T
rate, billion dolkrs(carrent)
360-
320»
280™
240-
200-
270. Final sales, durable goods, IT
160-
120-
80-
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods, 0
~~ "
52C!
480
440
400
360
320
280
274. Final sales, nondurable goods, Q
160-
120
+20-i
Change IB business invefltories, noodurable goods, Q
+15
+10+5 .
0_r J
».J 1
-10-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
BCII
APRIL 1975
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
profits and inventory valuation adjustment, 0
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
16
APRIL 1975
KCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A9
SAVING
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
P
T
296. Capital consumption allowances
238. Government surplus or deficit, Q
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
APRIL 1975
BCII
17
Section A
Chart A10
. = --
• . .-a' ?•.-.- PRODUCT
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
I
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
246. Cteflge in tasiness inventories,
XT^
Bad investment, nonfesidential
1958 dollars, Q
248. Fixed investment, residential structures, 1958 dollars, tt /
V
231. Personal Mcaraption npenlltots,
total, 1958 dollars. Q
263. Federal jmcranrt psrahases n psis
sf goods aod servKes, nS8 dollars, Q
249. Gross aft) PfoJutt 1958 Mian
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 70, and 72.
18
APRIL 1975
IICII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND
Chart All
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Gross National Product Shares
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
T
70 T
65-
60-1
201
269. Federal BovanBert fHffdiases
and services
15-
244*. Fixed investment, residential structures as p^cent of fiHPr Q
250A. Met exports of goods ami services as percent of GNP, (1
24H. Change in business inventffies as p^cent ot GNP, Q
National Income Shares
80-|
65- 1
2821. Proprietors'income as
p^cent of natiwiai income
286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation
adjustment as percent of national Income, 0
2MA, Rental inane if persons »s percent of nWpl kern, fl
I
5-
0J
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
APRIL 1975
!!€!»
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
2. Accession rale, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
llf apff raft, manufacturing (per 100 e^hjees-liwerteil scale)
234-J
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
20
APRIL 1975
KCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
T
P
T
advertising (index: 1967=100)
in nonagricultural establishments (ann. rate, HI
icyltBraf payrolls (milions)
42. Persons engaged Hi nonagricultural
activities (millions)
1953
54
55
58
59
60
61
65
66
67
68
69
70
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
KCII
21
i
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
Lagging Indicators
! Long-Duration Unemployment
15 weeks wt over (percent—inverted
*
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
22
APRIL 1975
ltd*
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
h current dollars, 0 (ann. rate, ML dol.)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
23
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
1953 54
55
56
57
58
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
^ssiit
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
24
APRIL 1975
IICII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators
(July)
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
13. New business incorporations (thousands)
orders, durable goods industries (Mi. dol.)
contracts, total value (index: 1967=100;
moving a?f .~8~temi)f
and orders, plant and equipment (HI. dol.)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
APRIL 1975
ICO
25
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3 I FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
P
T
Mew private housing anils started, total (ann. rate, millions; I
MCD moving avg.~4-tera)
building permits, private housing units (index: 1967--10Q)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 78.
26
APRIL 1975
IICII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
T
Lagging Indicators
60-
40 J
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
ItCII
APRIL 1975
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
(Aug.)
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
Change in business inventories, Q
(ann. rale, fell, dol.)
in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
rate, HI. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
tank ralue, manufacturers' inventories of materials and
bil. rtol.; MCD raving avg.-6-tmn)
materials, percent of companies
60 days or longer
it^fa*>*r
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.
28
APRIL 1975
BCII
Section B
Chart
B4
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
P
T
performance, percent of companies reporting slower
Change in unfilled orders, durable goods Industries
(kil. dol.; HCD moving avg.-4-term)
Lagging Indicators
*?1. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. del.)
140-
J
100
JEL
55-j
50454035-
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)
3025-
20-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
APRIL 1975
KCII
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
I materials prices (index: 1967=100)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80.
30
APRIL 1975
licit
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B5
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars,
B (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars,
(am. rate, ML dol.)
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1967=100)
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index-. 1967=100)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
BUI
APRIL 1975
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
per unit of real corporate product, Q (dollars)
161 Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
index: 1967-100)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
32
APRIL 1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
supply (M1) (ann. rate,
in money supply plus time deposits at commercial bank (M2)
moving ava —H-term)
money supply plus line deposits a! hanks ami
institutions (M3) (ann. rale, percent; moving avg.-6-term)
33. Change In mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
liT
112. Change in business loans (ann. rale, bil. slot.;
If|t8 waving avg.-4-lerni)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
ltd* APRIL 1975
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
P
'Flows of Money and Credit - Con
T
installment debt (ann. rate, bit.
110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, MI. dol.)
Credit* Difficulties
50 T
100-
400450500J
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
tetallBeBt tons (ptrnrt-tawU scale)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
34
APRIL 1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
P
T
Hi. Federal funds rate (percent)
\
116. Corporate twiul yields (percent)
If7. Municipal km yieios iperceni)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks
(bil. dol.
prime rate charged By oanks (percent)
rates on sbort-term business loans, Q (percent)
, residential (percent
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
36
APRIL 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
IWJt
^
lLJlLjf*^\
/
v
^
^
^^
n
Si
190-1
180170160150140130- «
ra
o
120- CO
11010090-
.....
^r
1
J^n^\
•"•• ^//r
i
\
|) 1
" """
ra
'fit
**r
180-,
170160150140130120110-
\
10090-
150-1
140130120-
•rife
nX"
B
110-
o
CO
10090-
240220-
/
X H
/
200180160140120-
^
i
100-
CO
80-
60-
AH-
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62
63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
II APRIL 1975
37
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
. s
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62
63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
38
APRIL 1975
Section B
Chart
B8
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948 49 50 51 52
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
53 54 55
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
56 57 58 59 60 61 62
63 64
65 66 67 68 69 70
71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 77.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
39
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.
40
APRIL 1975
licit
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Selected Indicators by Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Roughly Coincident Indicators
nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61 62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 79, 80, and 81.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
IECII
41
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
56 57 58 59 60 61 62
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
42
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
APRIL 1975 ltd)
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Selected Indicators by Timing
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.; (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
P T
P
T
«BW plat aid eppmwt, a (aM. ratB,
value, MHtKHn ad
iRYHitories (bil. dol.)
BBit of wtfifit, maiwfacturin? (intfei: 1367=100)
loans outstanding,
commercial banks (bil. dol.
business loans, I (percent)
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 78, 79, 80, and 82.
APRIL 1975
BCII
43
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart
AGGREGATE SERIES
Cl
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
for saw plant and equipment, all industries, Q
(a) Actual expenditures (ann. rate, Ml
(b) Second anticipations as percent of
(c) First anticipatkiBS as perceat of
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
1976
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
44
APRIL 1975
ItCII
Section C
Chart
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTION'-;.-
Cl ! AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
;
(Apr.'
,,May; (reb.-
T
P
~
260-
240220 200 -
180-
410. Manufacturers'sales, total value, Q (bil.
160-
140"
120-
412. Manufacturers'inventories,
total book value, Q (bil. dol.)
.._
I
IDi
414. Conditioi if manufacturers' inventories:
pencil cnsUerel high less perceit • \
'
\
21) •
\ ,~
ill ••
0 "
20 -
416. Adequacy of manufacturers'capacity: percent ^
considered inadequate less percent considered /
3II ••
40 50
435. Mex of msmer sntimit, 0 (1st. Q 1966-WB
•»-
80
100-1
...*•*>. .--...
v v
X
^A
\ /•X*V*.
* «-*v
\
90 80 -
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75 1976
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
KCII
APRIL 1975
45
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
Ml. Bisiwss expHditares for nw pM mt
») Second anticipations
(c) First aticiwtiws
D44D. New tntars, raaflufacturiQg (4-8
D442. Hat profits, •aHtemiiE ad tradt
j^
^**
^
/Sr^A
P44t. Harter (rt emlorets. mulactifiig »K trKe (4-B span)1
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
1976
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84 and 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
46
APRIL 1975
ItCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Section C
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
ffiffusioi Mem: pettnt rising
(ylotted at teraiial parter)
D4M. Level if inventories, MMfxMii mt trad* «-fl span)1
D460. Sellisg prices, naiifactiriig and traded spa)1
D462. SelliDg prices. nranfactoring (4-1 spa)
D464. Sellisg Hltts, wtolesale trade (4-Q span)
D46G. Sellisg prices, retail trade (4-Q spaa)1
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
57
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
1976
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
KCII
47
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart DI | FOREIGN TRADE
•'Nov.; (Nov.)
P ' X T
(July) (Apr.)
P
COft
P
T
T
Uorrhinriico trad* hahnrp f hil rinl • llftl mnvim
.S*
/
.^_^_^^
Fmnrts. BicRitf military aid (Ml ttol; MCR moving avg.-S-Unn)
_
—L**S
10-
H
6-
—
/, -I
r j
t
506. Export onlers, durables except motor vehicles
HI. dol.; HCD nwvifl? avg.-6-term)
508. Export orders, nonelectrical
(iriex: 1967-1M; MCD moving wj.-4-temt)
512. BeMfal hmirts (Ml. dol • HCD nnvim> avy.-1-tenri
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
48
APRIL 1975
IICII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATOR*
Chart D2 ! BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
I
P
(Nov.) i N o v j
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
T
250. Balance on goods and services
515. Balance on goods, services and remittances
517. Balance on current
519. Balance on current account
and long-term capital
522. Official reserve transactions balance
521. Net liquidity balance
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 87.
APRIL 1975
BCII
49
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
530. Lipd li^ilities to all foreigners,
532. Liquid and certaii illiquid IJatjilitles to
foreip official afems, ortstMding at
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at ml
"1
20-
^
Jj
«
m
10-
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. End-of-year figures are used prior to 1960.
50
APRIL 1975
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
T
illl
rate, Mllitt dollars
Excess of receipts
Excess of payneits
25S. Balaace n goods and services
, uiililjt*ii'
Biiitaff Juttj-i.
sales -am'
expeadiferes, and other senrlces--
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
APRIL 1975
ItCII
51
Section D
Chart D2
(July)
P
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(Aug.)
I
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
T
I Investment Income, Military Sales
j and Expenditures, and Other Services
Annual rate, billion dollars I
3 Excess of receipts (inflow)
1 Excess of payments (outflow)
32-
28-
24-j
20 -j
16-j-g
Investment income-
|*
12H
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
4-t
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
Travel—
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sales and expendituresS47. U.S. militarv expenditures abroad
.m
$
0-
546. Military sales to foreigners
16-
12-
Transportation and other services-
4-
01953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
52
APRIL 1975
KCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
+12 T
Capital Movements Plus Governmen
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
+8-
+4-
0-
560. Foreign investments it the U.S
-4J
+8-1
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities
+4-
0-
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
-4J
570. Government grants and capital transactions, not
0-1
-4-
+4-I
575. Banking lit per capital transactions, net
0-
-12-
*K
8
-16-20-24-
-28-32J
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
KCII
53
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D3J FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
+20-
Federal swptis or deficit, national income aM proftct accents, U (an. rate, WI. dol.)
+10-
0-10-20-30-40
350
300
250
601. Federal receipts, national income ami predict accowts, I (an.rate,Ml. del.)
200-
150-
100-
400350300-
250-
02. Federal experiitnres, national income ami prodnct accents, 1 (an. rate, bil. SU
200-
150'
100-
50J
1953
54
56
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
54
APRIL 1975
ltd*
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
T
264. national defense purchases, Q
obligations, Mai
moving avg.-6-tenn)
Departneiit obligations, procurement * i
!l
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-tenn
'
defense predicts indistries
MCD moving avg.-6-term)
Ml. New orders, defense
products (bil. dol.; MCD
moving avg.--6-ten)
NCD moving avg.—6-tefH
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
APRIL 1975
BCII
55
Section D
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(July) ='Apr i
P
(M3y)(Fel?
I
2ft. fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(variable weights prior to 1965), 0 (index: 1958=100)
703. Commodities less foods
over 1-quarter spans, 0 (ann. rate)
781c. Change in consumer price index, all items (seasonally adj.)Six-month spans (ann. rate)
•MV V
X
• 0ne-month spans1
'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
56
APRIL
1975
ItCIt
Section D
OTHER KEY UvL ;••
Chart D4 I PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
190-
Wholesale prices
752. Fare indicts
" \/y
SSc. Change in wholesale price index, industrial commodities (seasonally adj
One-Month spans1
1
0ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91.
BCII
APRIL 1975
57
Section D
KEY'
[Chart D5 I WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
I
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Average hourly earnings if production workers,
private nofrfam economy (annual data prior to 1964)
earnings (index: 1967--100)
741. Real earnings (index:
spendable avg. weekly earnings,
or nonsupervisory workers (1967 dollars) f
Amagebourtioo.pensation.allmiloyees,
dollar compensation
1367*180)
778. Sitprt per nan-tour, total private
economy, fl (index: 1967=100)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
58
APRIL 1975
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all Mnstries748. First year avg. changes, II (ann. rate)
749. Average changes ever life of
contract, Q (ann. rate)
TTOc. Change In entpnt per nan-hoar, total private economy. 8
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1CH
71
72
73
74 1975
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.20ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
APRIL 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
59
Section D
Chart D6 j
(July)
P
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
Civilian Labor Force
845. Females 20 years and over
846. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
60
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
APRIL 1975
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
|_Chart El j ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
P
.' Nov /
P
(July) ( A p r ;
?
1
(Aug.)
T
• Nov;
T
940920-
~ZL
900880860840820800780760740720700680660640620600-
206. Potential GNP
580560540520500480460-
440-
420-
400-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 95.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 1st quarter 1975. See special note on page 95.
APRIL 1975
KCII
61
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E2
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(July)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
851. Ratio, iwtttories to sales. aaMlactiriBir ^1 trade (ratio)
853. Ratii, productiM of faiswess eqiipmrt to dK«Mf goofc
(MA: WI=W
854. Ratii, persoul saviig to disposable pefanal inc«K, fl (ratio)
860. Ratie, help-wanted advertisiag to
of ppms ineaioed (ratio)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 197b
Current data for these series are shown on page 96.
62
APRIL 1975
Section E
ANALYTICAL
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
protectien worters
21 Industries (8-tw. spa—
goods industries-35 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo.
apppriations--17 industries (3-1 span
higher protits-about 1,000
prices-13 isdistrial materials (8-rao. span—, 1-m>.
claiBs, Stitt uienploygieot insurant.-^ areas (patent declining; SHM.
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.
ItCII
APRIL 1975
63
Section E
Chart E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Ml. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls-30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo.
D47. IndBtrial prodictiOii-24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
D58. Wholesale prices, manulactarai geods-22 industries (B-mo. span—, i-no. spaa--)
054. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-no. span—, 1-mo. spao—)
Current data for these series are shown on page 98.
64
APRIL 1975
BCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL < v ' - ~ -
Chart E5
RATES OF CHANGE
Percent change, anraal rate
?M (n) RHP in nirrmt dollars 11-fl span)
205. (c) GHP in constant dollars (1-Q span)
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
Q
48. Man-hours in aonagriwiltural establishments
'"
~~
"
47. Index of industrial production
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide," pp. 117-120.
ItCII
APRIL 1975
65
Section
F
Ut.
Chart Fl
(July)
P
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
CONSUMER PRICES
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Consumer prices—
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 103.
66
APRIL 1975
!!€!»
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1953
54
P
55
56
57
T
58
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.
APRIL 1975
ItCII
67
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F3 ! STOCK PRICES
(July)
P
Stock prices-
1953
54
55
56
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
19. United
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 104.
68
APRIL 1975
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
b. Difference
a. Total
210. Implicit price deflator
205. Constant (1958) dollars
200. Current dollars
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
b. Difference
a. Total
b. Difference
Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
(Index:
1958=100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
+12.2
+10.5
+9.5
+12.7
770.9
786.6
798.1
814.2
+11.8
+15.7
+11.5
+16.1
+6.4
+8.4
+6.0
+8.3
144.6
145.3
146.5
148.0
+1.9
+0.7
+1.2
+1.5
+5.5
+1.9
+3.3
+4.1
+44.2
+29.0
+31.0
+35.1
+15.5
+9.6
+10.1
+11.2
832.8
837.4
840.8
845.7
+18.6
+4.6
+3.4
+4.9
+9.5
+2.2
+1.6
+2.3
150.0
152.6
155.7
158.9
+2.0
+2.6
+3.1
+3.2
+5.5
+7.3
+8.3
+8.6
1,358.8
1,383.8
1,416.3
rl,430.9
+14.8
+25.0
+32.5
r+14.6
+4.5
+7.6
+9.7
r+4.2
830.5
827.1
823.1
r804.0
-15.2
-3.4
-4.0
r-19.1
-7.0
-1.6
-1.9
r-9.0
163.6
167.3
172.1
r!7S.O
+4.7
+3.7
+4.8
r+5.9
+12.3
pl,a9.2
p-11.7
p-3.2
P782.3
p-21.7
p-10.4
pl8l.4
P+3-4
p+8.0
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1,115.0
1,143.0
1,169.3
1,204.7
+31.8
+28.0
+26.3
+35.4
1,248.9
1,277.9
1,308.9
1,344.0
1972
First quarter . . ,
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
+9.4
+11.9
+14-4
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars
217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in current dollars
222. Personal
income in current dollars
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
5,354
5,478
5,593
5,750
3,702
3,770
3,818
3,886
912.3
932.5
954.3
987.0
913.3
930.9
950.3
985.0
774.7
790.0
807.2
838.1
566.2
573.6
581.9
600.1
3,720
3,787
3,861
4,000
2,719
2,749
2,784
2,864
5,951
6,079
6,215
6,369
3,969
3,984
3,992
4,007
1,027.6
1,051.2
1,077.3
1,106.3
1,013.6
1,039.2
1,068.0
1,099.3
869.5
892.1
913.9
939.4
615.1
618.2
621.8
622.9
4,143
4,244
4,339
4,452
2,931
2,941
2,952
2,952
6,428
6,536
6,676
r6,730
3,929
3,907
3,880
r3,787
1,118.8
1,130.2
1,155.5
rl,l65.4
1,112.5
1,134.6
1,168.2
1,186.9
950.6
966.5
993.1
1,008.8
610.3
603.5
602.9
594-8
4,497
4,565
4,681
4,745
2,887
2,850
2,842
2,798
p6,664
P3,673
pl,193.0
pi,017.4
P591.0
p4,777
p2,775
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,10, and 65.
APRIL 1975
69
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
230. Total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
232. Durable
goods, total, in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
234. Automobiles
in current dollars
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
701.5
720.6
736.8
757.2
512.8
523.2
531.2
54-2.2
112.1
116.2
121.2
124.3
75.5
77.9
79.4
82.4
36.6
38.3
41.8
41.9
288.4
297.4
302.0
310.9
301.0
307.0
313.6
322.0
781.7
799.0
816.3
823.9
552.9
553.7
555.4
546.3
132.4
132.1
132.4
124.3
87.0
87.3
87.0
86.3
45.4
44.8
45.4
38.0
323.3
332.7
343.8
352.1
325.9
334.2
340.1
347.4
840.6
869.1
901.3
895.8
539.7
542.7
547.2
528.2
123.9
129.5
136.1
120.7
88.1
91.5
92.5
88.1
35.8
38.0
43.6
32.6
364.4
375.8
389.0
391.7
352.4
363.8
376.2
383.5
P916.3
P532.3
P125.5
P90.3
P35.2
P399.3
P391.5
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
244. Residential
structures
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
169.4
175.5
182.1
190.2
112.7
114.7
117.5
122.5
40.7
41.0
40.6
42.2
72.0
73.7
76.8
80.3
51.8
52.9
54.5
56.7
+5.0
+8.0
+10.2
+11.0
199.0
205.1
209.0
224.5
130.5
135.6
139.0
141.9
44.6
46.2
47.9
49.3
85.9
89.4
91.1
92.6
58.5
58.7
58.1
53.6
+10.0
+10.7
+11.8
+28.9
210.5
211.8
205.8
209.4
145.2
149.4
150.9
151-2
51.3
52.2
51.0
53.7
93-9
97.2
99.9
97.5
48.4
48.8
46.2
40.4
+16.9
+13.5
+8.7
+17.8
pl64.6
p!47.4
P52.8
P94-6
P35.2
p-18.0
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
70
APRIL 1975
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
|ffi| GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
•••
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
^JFOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
252. Exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
253. Imports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
262. Federal
260. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
264. National
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-7.1
-6.9
-4.8
-5.3
69.1
68.8
73.3
78.5
76.1
75.7
78.1
83.8
251.1
253.8
255.1
262.6
105.6
105.9
102.7
105.2
75.9
75.9
72.6
74-7
145.5
147.9
152.4
157.4
-0.8
+0.5
+6.7
+9.3
88.8
89.5
94.9
96.9
106.4
106.2
105.3
108.4
75.0
74.0
73.3
75.3
162.6
167.1
171.6
177.9
75.8
76.6
78.4
84.0
184.8
190.1
195.1
199.3
P85.2
P205.1
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
103.7
113.6
104.3
269.0
273.3
276.9
286.4
r+1.9
131.2
138.5
143.6
r!47.5
119.9
140.0
146.7
r!45.7
296.3
304.4
312.3
323.8
111.5
114.3
117.2
124.5
P+5.4
P143.5
P138.1
P332.8
p!27.7
95.4
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+11.3
-1.5
-3.1
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
fm NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
••I
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
HB FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
280. Compensation
of employees
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
282. Proprietors'
income
284. Rental income
of persons
275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
204.6
210.6
218.3
223.6
+2.7
+5.8
+6.8
+13.2
309.7
318.9
322.7
332.6
+2.2
+2.2
+3.4
-2.2
683.8
699.0
712.6
732.9
72.9
74.6
75.8
80.1
25.5
24.4
26.8
26.7
347.9
359.7
374.2
384.1
+3.9
+3.0
+2.9
759.1
776.7
793.3
814.8
89.1
92.8
99.3
103.2
26.3
25.7
26.2
26.4
828.8
848.3
868.2
877.7
98.4
89.9
92.1
91.6
26.4
26.3
26.6
26.8
P85.0
p27.0
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
237.8
241.2
243.9
240.6
+6.1
+7.7
+9.0
+14.8
+14.1
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
242.3
248.5
259.8
246.2
+15.4
+18.3
392.8
402.9
413.2
418.6
p-11.2
P431-2
p-6.8
+8.7
-1.8
+5.7
+8.2
+3.0
-0.5
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
P251.7
p875-4
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,14,15, and 16.
ItCII
APRIL 1975
71
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
•(•NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
Mil IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
0 SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
296. Capital consumption
allowances
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1972
First Quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
86.5
89.5
92.9
99.8
43.6
44.9
46.2
47.5
164.4
169.4
175.0
184.6
53.3
49.0
49.3
58.9
21.3
22.1
23.3
26.5
103.7
103.3
105.8
-8.2
-5.2
-0.6
-6.5
103.9
105.0
105.2
106.4
49.2
51.1
53.2
55.5
201.1
207.9
217.0
231.7
65.3
69.6
73.2
89.3
26.3
24.9
25.6
26.2
107.4
110.5
111.5
113.9
+2.1
+3.0
+6.7
+2.3
107.7
105.6
105.8
r!03.4
57.5
60.1
62.8
65.9
224.5
206.3
196.4
r202.9
84.4
71.5
65.5
86.5
23.9
17.1
9.9
r!8.1
115.8
118.6
120.7
122.9
+0.4
-1.0
+0.2
P74-8
(NA)
P125.0
98.9
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
r-24-6
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
(NA)
p68.8
(NA)
(NA)
J^REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars
247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars
248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
263. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services,
constant (1958)
dollars
267. State and local
government purchases of goods and
services, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
766.7
780.0
789.7
805.3
+4.2
+6.6
+8.5
+8.8
81.3
82.4
83.8
87.2
33.8
34.2
34.3
34.8
36.1
37.5
40.9
41.8
62.9
62.5
59.5
59.2
80.9
81.3
82.4
83.8
825.5
829.6
832.7
825.7
+7.3
+7.8
+8.0
92.2
94.3
95.1
96.0
35.0
34.1
32.6
29.8
46.3
45.2
43.6
41.6
58.9
57.7
56.2
56.4
85.2
86.2
87.5
89.3
96.3
96.5
94.1
89.2
26.4
25.7
23.6
20.4
29.2
32.6
38.9
33.6
56.3
56.3
56.5
57.0
89.7
89.5
89.4
89.3
P84.1
P17.5
P27.3
p58.0
P90.3
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+20.0
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
819.9
818.9
818.1
r793 .1
+10.6
P793.3
p-11.0
+8.2
+5.0
+10.9
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18.
72
APRIL 1975
BCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter
Percent of Gross National Product
230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures
241A. Fixed
investment,
nonresidential
244A. Fixed
investment, residential structures
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
245A. Change
in business
inventories
250A. Net exports of goods
and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
262A. Federal
Govt. purchases of
goods and services
266A. State and local
govt. purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
1972
First quarter ..,
Second quarter ,
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter
62.9
63.0
63.0
62.9
10.1
10.0
10.0
10.2
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
+0.4
+0.7
+0.9
+0.9
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
9.5
9.3
13.0
12.9
13.0
13.1
62.6
62.5
62.4
61.3
10.6
10.6
10.6
4.7
4.6
4.4
4.0
+0.8
+0.8
+0.9
+2.2
-0.1
0.0
+0.5
+0.7
8.5
8.3
8.0
8.1
13.0
13.1
13.1
13.2
61.9
62.B
63.6
62.6
10.6
10.8
10.7
10.6
3.6
3.5
3.3
2.8
+1.2
+1.0
+0.6
+1.2
+0.8
-0.1
-0.2
+0.1
8.2
8.3
8.3
3.7
13.6
13.7
13.8
13.9
P64.6
plO.4
P 2.5
p-1.3
p+0.4
p9.0
P14.5
1973
First quarter ...
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Percent of National Income
280A. Compensation
of employees
(Percent)
282A. Proprietors'
income
284A. Rental income
of persons
(Percent)
286A. Corporate profits and
inventory valuation
adjustment
(Percent)
(Percent)
288A. Net interest
(Percent)
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
75.0
75.0
74-7
74.3
8.0
8.0
7.9
8.1
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
73.9
73.9
73.6
73.6
9.2
9.3
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
74.1
75.1
75.1
r75.3
8.0
8.0
r7.9
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
r8.9
5.1
5.3
5.4
r5.7
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
9.5
9.6
9.7
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
10.1
10.0
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
10.1
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
9.8
9.6
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
9.6
9.3
9.2
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.
B€l»
APRIL 1975
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
•^EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor Economic
Process
1
Year
and
month
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
*1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing
(Hours)
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
Comprehensive
Employment
Job
Vacancies
Marginal Employment Adjustments
*5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance,
State programs1
(Thous.)
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
(1967=100)
1973
January
February
March
4-0.5
4-0.9
40.9
April
May
June
[H)4.0.9
40.7
4.0.6
3.8
3.9
3.9
4.7
4.8
4.9
226
|H>223
227
0.9
0.8
0.9
122
119
121
147.00
147.98
148 42
0)4.1
3.9
3.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
238
234
233
0.8
0.8
0 8
121
122
12^
148.88
149.15
149.70
232
247
?41
0.9
0.8
0.8
|H) 131
126
120
149.90
150.12
150.52
251
284
B)0.8
1.0
1.1
123
120
114
150.90
151.43
151.65
July
August
September
40.7
4.0.6
4-0.7
3.8
3.7
3.8
4.8
4.7
4.9
October
November
December
40.7
40.6
40.6
3.7
3.8
3.7
H)4.9
4.8
4.4
January
February
March
40.4
40.4
40.3
3.5
3.5
3.6
4.3
4.5
4.5
306
323
312
1.5
1.4
1.2
111
108
111
rl51.05
r 151. 27
rl51.32
April
May .
June
39.3
40.3
40.1
2.8
3.4
3.4
4.6
4.7
4.4
293
291
306
1.1
1.1
1.1
116
115
116
r!50.52
rl51.90
rl51.79
July
August
September
40.2
40.2
40.0
3.4
3.4
3.3
4.4
4.3
4.1
290
332
362
1.0
1.2
1.3
119
115
103
r-151.59
rl51.96
rl52.36
October
November
December
40.1
39.5
39.4
3.2
2.8
2.7
3.6
3.1
3.0
410
458
504
1.9
2.6
2.6
94
86
79
Drl52.72
1*150.23
1*149.16
39.2
38.8
2.3
2.2
3.5
73
71
p70
r!48.29
rl46.47
P145.72
244-
1974
1975
January
February
March
P38.7
p2.2
r3.1
P3.3
(M)
548
550
P545
P3.5
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by EX Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20, 21, and 39.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
74
APRIL 1975
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
42. Persons
.engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment-Con.
*43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
(Percent)
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
(Percent)
(2)
1973
75,472
75,851
76,111
79,182
79,863
80,256
5.0
5.0
4.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.4
1.1
1.0
1.0
76,339
76,508
76,787
80,521
80,669
81,022
5.0
4.9
4.8
r2.6
r2.6
r2.6
2.4
2.3
2.2
0.9
0.9
0.9
July
August
September
76,867
77,163
77,315
81,144
81,148
81,626
4.8
4.8
4.8
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.1
2.1
2.1
0.8
0.9
0.9
October
November
December
77,6^9
77,915
77,924
82,024
82,006
82,011
[H>4.6
4.8
4.9
r2.6
[H>2.6
(B}2.1
2.2
2.2
0.8
0.9
(H)0.8
January
February
March
77,925
78,053
78,089
82,051
82,050
82,126
5.2
5.2
5.1
3.1
3.2
3 3
2.3
2.4
2.3
0.9
0.9
0 9
April
May
June
78,226
78,357
78,421
82,272
82,565
82,755
5.0
5 2
*> ?
r3.2
^ 2
r3 2
2.4
2 2
2 6
1.0
10
10
July
August
September
78,479
78,661
78,844
(H>82,970
82,823
82,913
5.3
5.4
5.8
r3.2
2.7
2.7
2.8
1.0
1.0
1.1
October
November
December
E>78,865
78,404
77,690
82,864
82,314
81,863
6.0
6.6
7.2
r3.7
3.0
3.3
3.8
1.1
1.2
1.4
r 77, 227
r76,678
p76,353
81,179
80,701
80, 584
8.2
8.2
8.7
r5.5
4-5
4.7
5.2
1.7
2.0
2.2
January
February
March
April
May
June
..
2.8
1974
3.2
3-4
4.2
r4.9
1975
January
February
March
6.0
p6.4
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [R>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21, 22,41, and 43.
-"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2
IICII
APRIL 1975
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
JQ PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Production
*200. Gross national product
in current dollars
*205. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Income
*47. Index of
industrial production
(1967=100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*56. Manufac53. Wages and
salaries in min- turing and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Sales of retail stores
*54. Current
dollar sales
(Mil.dol.)
59. Deflated
(1967 dollar)
sales
(Mil.dol.)
1973
1,248.9
832.8
122.2
123.4
123.7
1,002.0
1,014.4
1,024-5
235.1
238.0
239.8
13 5 , 848
138,047
140,074
1,238.9
40,707
41,242
41,979
33,930
34,106
0)34,393
April . .
May
June . .
1,277.9
837 !Z
124.1
124.9
125.6
1,031.7
1,038.9
1,047.2
242.2
244-1
246.8
140,022
141,726
141,354
1,267.2
41,185
41,723
41,167
33,384
33,553
r32,832
July . .
August
September
1,308.9
840.8
126.7
126.5
126.8
1,056.1
1,067.6
1,080.4
248.4
249.7
253-4
145,583
145,584
145,679
1,297.0
42,767
42,355
42,529
34,011
33,349
33,339
October
November
December
1,344.0
D845.7
127.0
(H>127.5
126.5
1,090.8
1,100.0
1,107.1
255.7
258.7
259.9
149,789
152,335
150,711
1,315.1
42,970
42,976
42,116
33,494
33,209
32,121
January
February
March
1,358.8
830.5
125.4
124.6
124.7
1,107.0
1,113.4
1,117.1
257.4
260.0
260.7
154,064
156,098
159,239
1,341.9
42,932
43,134
43,872
32,393
32,150
32,397
April
May ...
June
1,383.8
827.1
124.9
125-7
125.8
1,125.2
1,135.2
1,143.5
262.7
265.3
267.9
160,675
162,924
163,052
1,370.3
44,283
44,894
44,593
32,361
32,418
31,791
July
August
September
1,416.3
823.1
125.5
125.2
125.6
1,159.5
1,167.2
1,178.0
268.6
271.7
273.5
168,824
171,644
170,862
1,407.6
46,356
D47,056
46,177
32,760
32,883
31,781
October
November
December
[H}rl,430.9
r804.0
124.8
121.7
rll7.4
1,185.0
1,184.5
1,191.0
H>274.6
267.4
264.3
[H>171,647
168,335
161,809
45,803
44,469
44,821
31,187
30,027
30,203
pl,419.2
P782.3
113.7
1,191.1
rllO.7
rl,193.4
p!09.6 [H)pl,194.6
261.2
r255.4
p254-6
rl6l,754
pl62,579
r45,955
r46,830
P46,550
r30,880
r31,395
p31,005
January
February
March .
. ..
...
1974
rl, 413.1
1975
January
February
March .
(NA)
Dpi, 437.1
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by [H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23, 24, and 42.
76
APRIL 1975
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
(J FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
....
Formation of Business
Enterprises
p
*12. Index of
net business
formation
,,
,
„
Investment Commitments
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1 ,000 manufacturing corporations1
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense
(Number)
(Bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
119.1
119.9
E>120.8
27,796
28,752
28,964
38.37
39.02
40.40
185
191
193
11.33
11.36
11.69
9*. 50
April
May
June
119.3
118.8
118.5
28,522
28,286
27,999
40.62
41.51
41.95
177
173
183
11.30
11.94
12.76
lo'.63
July
August
September
118.2
117.2
115.6
27,664
26,689
26,240
41.84
41.98
41.15
175
182
12.62
12.65
12.26
October
November
December
116.2
117.6
114.0
26,809
26,718
24,881
43.30
43.48
41.03
191
194
161
January
February
March
113.3
113.0
113.9
26,511
27,056
26,458
41.52
42.27
41.97
April
May
June
115.9
116.3
115.7
1)29,071
27,562
25,785
July
August
September
118.6
115.0
110.6
Year
and
month
(1967=100)
9. Construction contracts
for commercial and industrial buildings, floor
space1
(Million
sq. feet)
(Million
sq. meters)2
1973
January
February .
March
...
87.48
85.89
84.71
8.13
7.98
7.87
10.04
10.56
83.61
83.73
85.79
7.77
7.78
7.97
10.57
10.28
10.39
D95.42
89.80
83.77
D8.86
11.32
13.29
13.40
12.73
ll!82
10.93
11.16
10.94
91.60
87.47
69.51
8.51
8.13
6.46
155
187
181
12.66
13.17
13.01
12)46
11.00
11.42
11.30
76.53
80.67
75.07
7.11
7.49
6.97
44-12
46.73
46.85
167
188
166
13.67
14.57
13.84
15!31
11.92
11.80
12.01
82.77
77.98
75.83
7.69
7.24
7.04
27,790
26,495
26,313
47.71
E>49.46
46.40
177
170
187
D15.16
13.52
14.08
H)l6!40
G>12.80
11.80
11.83
76.64
82.17
73.70
7.12
7.63
6.85
107.0
106.5
105.1
25,404
25,555
25,003
45.08
43.18
37.84
148
154
176
12.87
12.34
13.64
P12.45
11.38
10.62
10.46
62.47
56.71
54.25
5.80
5.27
5.04
103.0
el01.8
r 24, 406
p24,285
36.06
r37.02
P35.67
135
135
153
11.39
rll.34
pll.72
10.08
r9.97
P9.79
54.39
46.54
39.69
5.05
4.32
3.69
D199
9.57
9.45
10.04
9.94
8.34
7.78
1974
October
November .
December
....
1975
January
February
March
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by 0); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 25, 26, and 39.
^This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not "be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9), or The Conference Board (series 11).
2
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
BCII APRIL 1975
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
•••INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
1
1
1
INVESTMENT
£g| FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
New Investment
Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Investment Expenditures
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
28. New private *29. Index of
housing units
new private
started, total1
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits 1
(Ann. rate,
(1967=100)
thous.)
96. Manufactur- 97. Backlog of
capital appreers' unfilled
ciations, manuorders, durable
acturing2
goods industries
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
245. Change
in business
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
1973
January
February
March
2,486
2,376
2,309
195.4
194.4
182.8
82.27
83.91
86.80
April
May
June
2,096
2,313
2,087
171.2
163.9
178.4
89.60
92.74
96.41
July
August
September
2,120
2,058
1,861
156.3
153.1
142.7
98.46
101.54
103.45
October
November
December
1,692
1,721
1,441
118.8
117.3
110.7
105.87
108.30
109.86
January
February
March
1,437
1,881
1,511
110.5
114.2
121.5
111.38
113 . 58
114.93
April
May
June
1,580
1,467
1,533
111.7
96.5
95.3
117.82
122.02
126.08
July
August
September
1,314
1,156
1,157
87.6
77.6
70.9
129.67
134.30
H) 13 5. 70
October
November . .
December
1,106
1,017
67.4
62.9
70.8
134.22
132.66
129.94
58.8
125.87
r!23.25
p!20.42
96.19
126.^80
126.51
128 52
+10.0
+22.2
+23.4
+19.6
61
63
6l
97.76
131.73
132.41
135.14
+10.7
+16.7
+27.8
+30 5
57
58
63
100.90
137.47
135.53
137 26
+11.8
+24.0
+23.9
+22 6
64
61
64
139.91
142.39
142 81
H)+28 9
+26 9
+35.7
+49 6
|H)70
103.74
107.27
144.58
147.63
149.04
+16.9
+35.0
+38.7
+35.8
63
59
57
111.40
149.90
151.29
156.85
+13.5
+25.2
+48.0
+55.4
59
58
56
113.99
151.21
151.16
155.46
+8.7
+59.3
+54.4
+63.8
54
57
58
0)116.22
0)160.04
159.26
155.69
+17.8
D+71.9
+40.0
+46.7
49
47
4L
al!3.22
r!53.06
p!55.70
(NA)
p-18.0
r+0.1
p-17.9
(NA)
37
30
30
25.94
29.42
33.02
36.66
64
65
1974
880
38.89
44.67
50.31
H)p50.42
1975
January
February
March . .
r999
r986
p980
r6l.5
p6l.2
April
May
June
(NA)
al!3.83
July
August
September .
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by (H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |R). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26,27,28,40, and 43.
Series that reached their high values prior to 1973 are: Series 28, 2,494 reached in January 1972; and Series 29, 208.5
reached in December 1972.
Board13
78
±S & copyrighted series used b
7 permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
APRIL 1975
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.
Inventories
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
0|pRiCES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
RJlNVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.
20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Prod, materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days
or longer®
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries ®
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in
unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries
(Bil. dol.)
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
(Bil. dol.)
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive ComStock Prices
modity Prices
65. Mfrs.
inventories of
finished
goods, book
value
*23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices®
*19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks®
(Bil. dol.)
(1967=100)
1941-43=10)
Prof its and Profit Margins
Corporate prof its after
taxes
*16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
18. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1973
January
February
March
+4.1
+5.3
+3.2
63
68
67
78
84
88
+1.36
+1.64
+2.89
198.94
200.89
202.52
35.72
35.87
36.19
139.3
147.5
155.3
|H>118.42
114.16
112.42
April
May
June
+4.2
+5.3
+6.9
77
80
78
90
[H>92
89
+2.80
+3.14
+3.67
203.91
206.23
208.77
36.08
36.45
36.84
158.2
162.9
170.1
July
August
September
+7.6
+6.3
+7.0
82
80
83
88
88
90
+2.05
+3.09
+1.90
210.77
212.76
214.64
36.85
36.74
37.04
October
November
December
+7.9
+5.7
+13.1
87
84
87
90
91
88
+2.42
+2.42
+1.56
216.89
219.87
224.00
January
February .
March
+12.2
+11.8
+13.8
90
E>91
85
85
88
88
+1.52
+2.20
+1.34
April
May
June .
+12.6
+16.0
+13.5
83
84
84
84
79
76
D+19.7
+17.9
+15.5
83
85
83
+9.5
+4.8
+19.2
+8.4
+2.1
(NA)
...
71.5
5C)!5
110.27
107.22
104.75
74.0
51.1
178.1
189.8
186.3
105.83
103.80
105.61
72)9
49.*8
37.12
37.33
37.95
188.1
192.4
208.9
109.84
102.03
94.78
73^2
49 !l
226.92
230.14
233.12
38.46
38.89
39.11
215.9
232.0
237.2
96.11
93.45
97.44
...
83.2
...
54.' 5
+2.89
+4.20
+4.07
235.22
239.22
243.83
39.35
39.76
40.39
E>238.4
226.2
227.5
92.46
89.67
89.79
83 !l
52.*9
72
68
52
+3.58
D+4.64
+1.39
248.78
253.31
258.62
41.34
42.09
43.41
228.2
224.2
214.7
82.82
76.03
68.12
E>94.*3
...
E>58.2
82
73
69
46
32
22
-1.47
-1.57
-2.71
264.61
267.95
271.84
44.27
45.58
46.73
204.4
196.4
183.4
69.44
71.74,
67.07
r79.5
r46.*9
64
64
58
18
16
17
-4-07
-2.63
p-2.82
H)r271.84
P270.36
(NA)
47.60
H>47.70
(NA)
180.1
181.1
182.3
72.56
80.10
83.78
(NA)
(NA)
1974
July
August
September .
October
November
December
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
1
185.2
2
83. 96
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by 0); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28,29,30,40,41, and 43.
1
Average for April 1, 8, and 15. 2Average for April 2, 9, and 16.
!!€!>
APRIL 1975
79
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
|||PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
Profits and Profit Margins-Con.
22. Ratio,
prof its to
income
orig. in
corporate
business
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all i
mfg. corp.
*17. Ratio,
price to unit
(Percent)
(Cents)
(1967=100)
index, mfg.
Cash Flows
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
34. Current
dollars
55. Index of 58. Index of
wholesale
wholesale
prices,
prices, mfd.
goods®
35. Constant industrial
(1958) dol. comrnod.®
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Net cash flows, corporate
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
Unit labor cost, total
private economy
63. Index
(1967=100)
63c. Change
over 1-Q
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per
unit of gross
prod. (1958
dol.), corp.
*62. Index
of labor
cost per
unit of out-
(Dollars)
(1967=100)
put, mfg.
1973
January
February
March
11.4
4.7
103.0
104.1
105.3
112.0
79.1
120.0
121.3
122.8
121.6
123.6
125.7
128.0
April
May
June
ll!6
4*7
104.7
105.6
106.4
115.7
80.5
124.2
125.3
126.0
126.4
128.3
130.1
130.3
July
August
September
11.1
4.7
106.0
109.3
106.9
114-8
78.5
126.1
126.7
127.4
129.1
133.4
131.8
132.5
October
November
December
10.8
5.7
106.3
107.5
108.6
115.5
78.1
128.5
130.1
132.2
132.0
132.8
135.1
135.2
ll'.6
5*.8
110.7
111.2
112.2
125.7
83.4
135.3
138.2
142.4
138.6
140.9
143.6
140.1
12.1
5^6
112.8
113.9
114.0
126.3
8l!5
146.6
150.5
153.6
146.0
149.3
151.5
144.5
0)138 ! 6
0>86*.4
157.8
161.6
162.9
156.4
161.8
162.4
148.9
r?4.0
164.8
165.8
166.1
165.2
166.2
166.9
0)154*2
167.5
168.4
D168.9
0)168.2
168.0
167.8
6.7
0.858
118.4
118.4
119.0
0.870
120.2
120.7
121.2
0.884
121.6
122.4
123.3
0.905
124.7
124.8
125.4
0.937
125.6
126.5
127.4
0.964
129.0
130.2
131.8
0.993
134.0
134.6
135.5
H)rl.023
136.8
r!38.1
r!40.5
7.3
7.0
8.5
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
... .
July
August
September
Dl3! 5
0>5*.9
116.7
119.5
120.0
October
November
December
rll.l
4.9
120.9
0}rl21.5
rl!9.9
r!25.5
ED15.1
13-3
12.8
14.8
1975
January
February
March
(NA)
(NA)
rll8.2
rll6.0
pin. 3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
r!43.2
r!44.8
0)pl46.4
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by 0); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31,32,41, and 43.
x
Data beginning with the 4th quarter 1973 are not comparable with earlier data due to changes in the definition of profits
and in the rules for consolidation. The figure for the 4th quarter 1973 on the old basis is 4.8.
80
APRIL 1975
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
HJMONEY AND CREDIT
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
85. Change in
U.S. money i
supply (M1)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
102. Change in
money supply
plustime
deposits at
commercial
banks (M2)1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
103. Change in
money supply
plustime deposits at banks
and nonbank institutions (M3)1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change
'n mortgage debt
neld by financial
institutions and
ife insurance
companies2
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
112. Net
change in
bank loans to
businesses3
*113. Net
change in consumer installment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil.dol)
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures© 1
(Mil.dol.)
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over,
consumer
installment
oans1
(Percent)
(4)
1973
+5.16
+^.67
+0.47
+9.36
+7.02
+5.40
+10.49
+8.24
+6 60
+47.92
+49.33
+53.46
+23.70
+50.95
+6.51
+13.4-2
+13.72
+7.85
+12 . 03
+11.69
+7.99
+10.92
+11 . 80
+52.75
+53.51
+57.43
+26.14
+14.32
+13 07
July
August
September
+3.62
-Oo45
-1.35
+5.24
+6.96
+4.54
+5.84
+5.26
+4.41
+53-60
+52.30
+43.74
October
November
December
+4.06
+12.60
+9.35
+9.48
+11.97
+10.58
+8.24
+10 . 64
+10.14
-2.65
+9.75
+9.23
+6.92
+11.26
+9.50
+6.10
+4.34
+10.37
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
185,696
205.84
137.16
252.35
+16.85
+23 . 89
+19 ?/
178,460
119.34
167.95
180 21
+22.94
+29.40
+6.02
+23 . 98
+22.74
+16.31
184,496
206.19
190.15
189.47
+40.69
+39.76
+31.66
+3.13
+4-31
+17.00
+20.40
+20.71
+4.92
161,928
185.66
218.67
245.62
+7.24
+9.46
r+9.65
r+36.94
r+39.94
r+3 9. 43
r+19.79
r+1.04
r+30.01
+11.00
+8.05
+7.40
163,256
337.28
213.13
204.59
+7.99
+4.48
+11.16
r+7.53
r+3.68
r+8.98
[H}r+50.86
r+47 . 59
r+3 9. 40
[H)r+52.21
r+20.42
r+14.92
[H)205,808
209.76
375.69
215.50
+2.1^
+0.86
+1.71
+5.23
+5.00
+3.19
r+5.02
r+3.88
r+3 .12
r+40.28
r+31.58
+31.21
r+44.54
r+14.17
r+21.02
+15.90
+18.14
+8.12
1^6,444
153.40
232.68
217.01
+4.70
+6.80
+2.11
+8.55
+9.67
+2.54
r+7.08
r+8.77
r+5.15
r+28.8l
r+24.23
r+16.25
r+9.90
r+21.42
r+14.22
+4.82
-4.80
-9.77
p!25,468
306.83
344.66
242 . 59
-8.86
r+6.80
p+13.53
+3.32
r+9.74
p+12.56
r+6.11
r+10.57
p+13.97
r+24.80
p+30.29
r-11.59
r-34-55
p-25.22
-4.81
+2.84
e-2.40
+41 . oo
+23.39
+23.96
[H}-l-24.53
2.01
2.01
1 99
2.02
2.11
2.27
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
+13 . 84
+15.14
+13 . 03
2.54
2.56
2.61
2.63
2.65
2.80
1975
January
February
March .
April
May
June
5
+4.8l
5
+8.43
(NA)
6
(NA)
391.14
423.45
(NA)
(NA)
-16. 45
July
August
September
October
November
December .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by |H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33,34, and 41.1Series that reached their high values prior to 1973 are: Series 85, +14.24 reached
in December 1972; Series 102, +18.98 reached in February 1971; Series 103, +17.47 in March 1971; Series 14, 86.79 reached
in December 1972; and Series 39, 1.71 in December 1971. Data include conventional mortgages held by the Government National
Mortgage Association. 3Data beginning October 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and
Changes for This Issue," on page iii of the October 1974 issue. 4See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
5
Average for weeks ended April 2 and 9. 6Average for weeks ended April 2, 9, and 16.
Digitized forltd!
FRASERAPRIL 1975
81
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^JMONEYAND(:REDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
....
Rank
Reserves
Interest Rates
D
93. Free
reserves @
Year
and
month
(Mil.dol.)
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt
116. Cor11 5. Treas- 117. Munic- 66. Consumer
porate bond ury bond
installment
ipal bond
debt
yields®
yields® yields®
eral funds
rate®
114. Treasury bill
rate®
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
119. Fed-
(Percent)
(Mil.dol.)
Interest Rates
*72. Commercial 109. Average prime
and industrial
rate charged
loans outstandby banks®
ing, weekly reporting large
commercial
banks1
(Mil. dot.)
(Percent)
*67. Bank
rates on
short-term
business
loans, 35
cities ®
118. Mortgage yields,
residential ®
(Percent)
(Percent)
1973
January
February
March . .
-1,388
-1,563
5.94
6.58
7.09
5.31
5.56
6.05
7.61
7.67
7.75
5.96
6.14
6.20
5.05
5.13
5.29
126,388
128,385
130,429
93,885
98,131
101,548
6.00
6.02
6.30
6*. 52
7.55
7.56
7.63
April . . . .
May
June
-1,564
-1,638
-1,653
7.12
7.84
8.49
6.29
6.35
7.19
7.70
7.69
7.73
6.11
6.25
6.32
5.15
5.14
5.18
131,833
133,824
135,436
103,726
104,919
106,008
6.60
7.01
7.49
7!35
7.73
7.79
7.89
July . .
August
September
-1,584
-1,734
-1,477
10.40
10.50
10.78
8.02
8.67
8.48
7.97
8.45
8.10
6.53
6.85
6.41
5.40
5.48
5.10
137,434
139,329
140,688
107,920
110,370
110,872
8.30
9.23
9.86
9!24
8.19
(NA)
9.18
October
November
December
-1,141
-1,111
10.01
10.03
9.95
7.97
7.95
8.09
6.25
6.30
6.35
5.05
5.18
5.12
142,388
144,114
144,524
111,133
111,492
112,909
9.94
9.75
9.75
10.08
-995
7.16
7.87
7.36
8.97
8.86
8.78
-790
-980
7.76
7.06
7.99
8.32
8.21
8.60
6.56
6.54
6.81
5.22
5.20
5.40
145,441
146,112
146,729
rl!4,558
rl!4,645
rl!7,146
9.73
9.21
8.83
9^91
(NA)
8.54
8.66
8.23
8.43
8.14
9.04
9.39
9.59
7.04
7.09
7.02
5.73
6.02
6.13
147,882
149,144
150,230
r!21,497
r!23,199
r!24,442
10.02
11.25
11.54
11.15
9.17
9.46
9.46
7.18
6.68
6.71
6.76
151,555
153,067
153,744
r!28,154
r!29,335
r!30,988
11.98
12.00
[H>12.00
tH>12*. 40
6.57
6.61
E>154,146
153,746
152,932
r!31,8l3
r!33,598
Drl34,783
11.68
10.83
10.50
ll!64
152,531
152,768
r!33,8!7
r!30,938
p!28,836
10.05
2
6
-B23
1974
January
February
March
-1,444
9.65
8.97
9.35
April
May
June
-1,506
-2,282
-2,739
10.51
11.31
11.93
July ....
August
September
-2,982
[H>-3,008
-2,957
H)12.92
12.01
11.34
October
November
December
-1,585
10.06
7.75
E)8.7A
8.36
10.18
10.30
H>10.44
H>7.33
7.30
9.45
8.35
7.24
7.58
7.18
10.29
-960
-332
9.22
9.47
7.22
6.93
6.77
-441
7.13
6.2A
5.54
6.49
5.58
5.54
9.17
8.84
9.48
6.68
6.66
6.77
E>7.05
9.85
10.30
E)10.38
10.13
(NA)
9.51
1975
January .
February
March
April
May
June
r+95
p+192
2
+169
2
5. 44
3
5.69
4
9.69
4
7.02
6.82
6.39
6.74
5
6.94
(NA)
127,465
8.96
7.93
9^94
8.99
8.84
8.69
7.50
July
August . .
September
October .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35,36, and 43.
1
Data beginning with September 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for This
Issue," on page iii of the October 1974 issue. 2Average for weeks ended April 2, 9, and 16. 3Average for weeks ended
April 5, 12, 19, and 26. 4Average for weeks ended April 4, 11, and 18. 5Average for weeks ended April 3, 10, and 17.
Average for April 1 through 23.
82
APRIL 1975 BCD
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
JJcOMPOSITE INDEXES
810. Twelve
leaders, reverse trend adjusted1 (series
1,5,6,10,12,
16,17,19,23,
29,31,113)
Year
and
month
(1967=100)
811. Twelve
leaders, prior
to trend adjustment
(same components as
in series 810)
(1967=100)
820. Five
coinciders,
estimated
aggregate
economic
activity
(series 41, 43,
47, 52, 56)
825. Five
coinciders, estimated aggregate economic
activity,
deflated
(series 41, 43,
47, 52D,56D)
830. Six
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
laggers
(series 44,
61,62,67,
71,72)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
815. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25,31,37)
816. Profitability
(series 16,
17,19)
817. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33, 85,
112,113)
3,5)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12,29)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1,2,
1973
January
February
March
155.9
158.8
161.3
121.5
123.3
124.8
147.6
149.4
150.9
134.9
136.1
136.5
145.6
149.2
151.9
102.2
102.5
103.2
121.2
121.6
122.2
114.8
116.6
118.8
115.6
116.3
118.5
124.2
125.9
[H>128.6
159.7
162.9
164.3
123.1
125.1
125.7
151.8
153.3
154.5
136.7
137.4
137.6
155.6
158.3
162.5
B>103.3
103.2
102.3
120.8
120.9
D122.4
118.6
121.3
123.9
118.1
119.0
118.8
120.4
123.7
121.9
165.6
167.3
165.1
126.2
127.0
124.9
156.4
157.4
158.5
139.5
138.7
139.9
167.4
171.0
173.6
101.7
102.2
102.8
121.1
120.5
118.9
123.6
126.9
125.3
118.6
120.8
119.2
122.5
117.4
108.7
166.8
168.1
165.6
125.7
126.2
123.9
161.0
162.6
162.1
141.6
D142.2
140.5
177.2
178.9
182.2
102.6
100.8
97.7
118.9
119.2
116.1
127.1
129.1
132.9
119.6
119.0
119.5
108.2
110.6
104.7
January
February
March
167.8
170.2
172.3
125.1
126.3
127.5
161.6
162.4
163.6
138.8
138.4
138.5
184-3
186.4
190.8
95.3
95.2
94.8
115.7
116.6
117.3
132.1
135.2
134-6
122.8
123.7
125.6
106.9
109.6
115.8
April
May
June
173.0
175.6
176.1
127.4
128.9
128.8
164.8
165.9
166.6
138.7
138.6
138.2
195.1
199.8
204.5
95.6
95.6
96.1
118.3
118.4
117.7
135.3
137.3
138.0
124.8
125.0
126.4
r!23.1
r!21.0
rll6.2
July
August
September
D179.6
178.1
r!72.0
D130.9
129.3
r!24.4
168.5
169.5
169.5
138.8
138.2
137.3
210.5
r214.5
216.3
95.8
94.3
92.3
118.9
116.1
113.1
137.8
H>138.0
134.4
128.0
B>129.4
r!25.4
rll6.1
rll4.0
r!06.1
October
November
December
rl69.0
rl62.9
r!59.4
r!21.7
rll6.9
rl!4.0
D169.5
165.9
rl6l.2
136.1
132.3
r!28.2
r219.0
[H>r220.4
r219.8
88.5
85.0
83.1
no. 3
108.7
108.3
129.4
124.0
120.3
r!24.9
r!24.4
r!20.1
r!06.1
rlOO.8
r92.8
r!54-4
155.3
154-5
rllO.O
110.2
2
109.2
r!57.8
156.2
3
154-3
r!25.2
123.7
3
121.9
r2l6.9
r212.4
p211.6
r8l.2
p80.7
r!04.2
r!04.4
pi 04.0
rl!3.0
rill. 2
pill. 3
r!20.9
r!21.8
P121.4
r90.3
r91.6
P91.3,
April
May
June
... .
July
August
September
October
November
December
. .
1974
1975
January
February
March
2
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
... .
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by [fl); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
3
Excludes series 12, 16, and 31 for which data are not yet available.
3
Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.
BCII APRIL 1975
83
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
and
quarter
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual
c. First
anticipations as
percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
414. Condition
of manufacturers'
inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
412. Manufacturers' inventories,
total book value
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
(Percent)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
86.79
87.12
87.67
91.94
100.9
104.1
103.1
100.5
100.4
102.3
102.3
99.9
177.8
182.7
188.2
198.3
103.0
104.3
106.2
107.7
12
10
11
10
96.19
97.76
100.90
103.74
100.6
100.8
101.0
101.2
100.5
102.4
100.9
100.6
206.1
211.6
216.7
225.4
110.2
113.0
116.1
120.9
11
12
13
107.27
111.4.0
113.99
116.22
99.9
99.3
99.1
98.4
100.8
98.7
99.3
99.8
231.6
241.3
255.7
253.7
126.5
133.5
143.0
150.4
al!3.22
al!3.83
(NA)
(NA)
a255.8
al64.0
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
9
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
18
22
23
(NA)
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
416. Adequacy
of mfrs.' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(Percent)
DIFFUSION INDEXES
435. Index of
consumer
sentiment ®
D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(First quarter
1966=100)
b. Second
anticipations
(1-Qspan)
D440. New orders,
manufacturing1 ®
Actual
c. First
anticipations
(1-Qspan)
(1-Qspan)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
24
26
31
35
87.5
89.3
94.0
90.8
44.4
50.0
55.6
83.3
77.8
63.9
88.9
75.0
75.0
44-4
47.2
50.0
82
84
86
84
82
86
88
41
45
48
51
80.8
76.0
71.8
75.7
83.3
61.1
83.3
66.7
77.8
77.8
72.2
75.0
86.1
63.9
61.1
72.2
88
90
88
90
88
87
51
49
45
32
60.9
72.0
64.5
58.4
77.8
86.1
61.1
63.9
72.2
77.8
61.1
55.6
75.0
86.1
69.4
61.1
84
82
74
59
80
85
80
(NA)
58.0
(NA)
36.1
(NA)
72
59
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44,45, and 46.
•"-This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.
84
APRIL 1975
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
JQ DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1 ®
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade1 ®
Actual
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade1 ®
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
D450. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1 ®
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter . ...
Fourth quarter
74
76
79
80
76
82
84
83
82
82
85
86
83
88
90
88
56
58
62
60
58
60
61
60
64
66
72
71
61
66
66
66
78
79
76
76
82
85
84
80
86
89
86
85
88
90
90
88
63
62
60
60
60
63
62
60
73
76
75
76
69
72
72
70
74
76
71
63
80
74
79
77
82
84
80
70
86
78
86
82
58
59
56
49
61
56
60
58
78
79
78
. 69
70
67
72
72
53
48
(NA)
64
54
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
68
58
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
75
62
JR DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Selling prices
Year
and
quarter
D460. Manufacturing
and trade1 ®
Actual
1
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
Actual
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
D466. Retail trade1 ©
D464. Wholesale trade1 ®
D462. Manufacturing ®
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
74
76
76
78
68
74
75
72
70
72
72
74
68
72
72
70
80
81
82
80
70
78
80
74
73
78
79
81
67
74
74
74
86
86
90
92
76
82
85
83
82
84
86
90
73
80
83
82
90
89
92
96
80
86
88
84
90
87
93
93
76
85
88
83
94
96
94
90
87
90
92
91
92
96
94
89
86
89
92
90
96
96
94
91
88
94
92
91
92
97
96
92
87
89
92
93
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
(NA)
87
76
(NA)
86
76
(NA)
87
74
(NA)
88
75
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
-'-This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun &Bradstreet,
Inc.
licit
APRIL 1975
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
UJFOREIGN TRADE
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 51 2)
Year
and
month
(Mil.dol.)
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil.dol.)
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles
and parts
(Mil.dol.)
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
(1967=100)
512. General imports, total
(Mil.dol.)
1973
-289
-413
-102
4,955
5,070
5,311
2,304
2,248
2,307
164
172
184
5,244
5,483
5,414
April
May
June
+133
-4-7
5,494
5,561
5,728
2,111
2,258
2,109
193
184
207
•5,360
5,703
5,775
July
August
September
+37
+32
+776
5,865
6,042
6,420
2,228
2,853
2,104
189
192
194
5,829
6,010
5,644
October
November
December
+589
+194.
+658
6,585
6,879
6,949
2,633
2,291
2,665
195
205
191
5,996
6,684
6,291
+653
+232
7,150
7,549
7,625
2,828
2,872
3,115
213
216
205
6,497
7,317
7,742
-612
-257
8,108
7,652
8,317
3,375
3,520
2,960
219
206
210
8,025
8,264
8,573
-610
-882
-302
8,308
8,380
8,396
2,900
3,204
3,327
211
219
215
8,918
9,262
8,698
8,673
8,974
8,862
3,565
3,264
3,305
207
190
178
8,769
8,965
9,250
9,412
8,789
r3,295
P3.166
rl87
9,622
7,872
January
February
March
....
-14.2
1974
January
February
March
-116
April
May
June
+83
....
July
August
September
October
November
December
-96
+9
-388
1975
January
February
March
-210
+917
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p!72
(NA)
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
86
APRIL 1975
BCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance
on goods and
services
515. Balance
on goods, services,
and remittances
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital
517. Balance
on current
account
(Mil.dol.)
521. Net
liquidity balance
522. Official
reserve transactions balance
530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners 1 ©
Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1972
First quarter ..,
Second quarter ,
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter
-1,763
-1,722
-1,194
-1,330
-2,167
-2,118
-1,579
-1,769
-2,753
-2,676
-2,152
-2,226
-3,898
-2,383
-2,908
-2,044
-3,327
-2,346
-4,445
-3,736
-3,147
-872
-4,722
-1,611
66,925
69,880
75,498
78,679
-13$
116
1,659
2,736
-589
-295
1,2^7
2,019
-946
-940
762
1,572
-1,008
-1,170
1,891
-741
-6,614
-1,777
1,652
-869
-10,195
286
1,942
2,661
85,524
86,380
86,560
87,520
2,816
-206
-247
p826
2,426
-673
-703
P363
-135
-2,108
-1,475
P-310
1,719
2,563
-3,874
p-5,866
-970
-6,396
-4,463
p-6,512
1,046
-4,522
-320
p-4,277
90,978
98,510
105,082
pllO,795
(NA)
(MO
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1®
(Mil.dol.)
534. U.S.
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
official
reserve
assets2®
252. Exports
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Income on investment, military
transactions, other services
Merchandise, adjusted 3
Goods and services
253. Imports
(Mil.dol.)
536. Exports
(Mil.dol.)
537. Imports
(Mil.dol.)
540. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
53,806
54,604
60,075
61,526
12,270
13,339
13,217
13,151
17,265
17,212
18,323
19,618
19,028
18,934
19,517
20,948
11,655
11,534
12,357
13,222
13,482
13,329
13,953
14,990
5,610
5,678
5,966
6,396
5,546
5,605
5,564
5,958
71,335
70,701
69,777
66,810
12,931
12,914
12,927
14,378
22,193
23,847
25,922
29,012
22,378
23,731
24,263
26,276
15,230
16,679
18,152
20,216
16,184
17,042
17,574
19,006
6,963
7,168
7,770
8,796
6,194
6,689
6,689
7,270
65,527
69,994
72,601
p76,209
14,588
14,946
15,893
15,883
33,067
35,046
36,766
P37,768
30,251
35,252
37,013
P36,942
22,212
23,921
24,731
p26,217
22,387
25,595
27,205
p27,775
10,855
11,125
12,035
pll,551
7,864
9,657
9,808
p9,l67
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49, 50, and 51.
1
2
3
Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
Reserve position at end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes
transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts ''exports) and Department of Defense purchases ('imports).
BCII APRIL 1975
87
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
•BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-COD.
Year
and
quarter
Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
544. Receipts
from foreign travelers in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
542. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil.dol.)
Transportation and other services
Military transactions
Travel
Income on investments
545. Payments
by U.S. travelers
abroad
(Mil.dol.)
547. Military
expenditures
abroad ®
(Mil.dol.)
546. Sales under
military contracts
(Mil.dol.)
548. Receipts
549. Payments
from
for
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
2,411
2,435
2,679
2,894
1,391
1,417
1,467
1,618
645
672
690
710
1,191
1,212
1,233
1,308
326
281
252
295
1,222
1,242
1,109
1,185
2,228
2,290
2,345
2,497
1,742
1,734
1,755
1,847
3,194
3,308
3,502
3,980
1,747
2,100
2,245
2,602
818
773
842
843
1,308
1,392
1,323
1,384
342
446
520
1,046
1,175
1,209
1,067
1,169
2,609
2,6^1
2,906
2,927
1,964
1,988
2,054
2,115
6,149
6,382
7,021
p6,390
3,045
4,512
4,739
P3,968
978
866
918
P973
1,391
1,454
1,358
pl,419
666
651
805
p844
1,166
1,319
1,278
pl,302
3,062
3,226
2,262
2,372
2,433
P2,478
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
3,291
P3,344
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Year
and
quarter
Securities investments
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
564. Foreign purchases
of U.S. securities
565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
575. Banking and other
capital transactions, net
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
-27.5
216
158
224
1,121
314
1,318
765
1,059
961
718
1,769
437
346
-209
79
-757
-807
-986
-1,334
-923
365
-1,125
-1,523
351
588
886
712
1,815
973
710
1,374
1,718
489
1,173
670
-51
124
209
525
-943
-555
-1,514
-1,628
-2,310
-579
-26
-3,034
1,281
1,677
-89
p-561
627
1,527
2,047
p2,600
687
419
168
P-75
646
313
306
-1,320
-597
-974
P-1,546
-7,194
-7,606
-1,361
P-4,015
(NA)
(NA)
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
APRIL 1975
BUI
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
0FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense Indicators
Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
602. Federal
expenditures,
national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
264. National
defense purchases
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
(Mil.dol.)
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Mil.dol.)
648. New or-
ders, defense
products
(Bil.dol.)
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil.dol.)
1973
-11.2
249.1
260.2
75io
6,840
7,337
7,361
1,631
1,838
1,704
1.62
1.63
1.80
2,824
2,899
2,947
April
May
June
-?!i
255.0
262.4.
74.0
6,739
7,269
7,069
1,349
1,730
1,633
1.90
1.79
1.96
2,568
3,171
2,897
July
August
September
-i!?
261.8
263!!
73^3
7,203
7,039
6,260
1,483
1,676
1,099
1.18
1.90
1.34
2,106
3,276
3,222
October
November
December
-2.3
268 ! 3
270.6
75^3
7,671
7,443
6,794
1,788
1,771
1,149
1.83
2.12
1.45
3,176
3,515
2,850
-2\3
278.1
281.0
75.8
7,527
7,343
7,186
2,077
1,708
1,642
2.18
2.06
1.46
3,378
3,141
2,677
-3.0
288 ! 6
29l! 6
^6.6
7,883
7,302
7,663
2,040
1,330
1,412
1.53
2.08
1.75
4,343
2,881
3,440
-1^9
302.8
30^7
78.4
8,177
8,199
7,781
1,919
1,692
1,842
1.38
3.23
1.68
3,494
4,153
3,502
r294*.7
319.3
84.0
7,603
8,138
8,228
1,446
2,349
1,431
1.40
2.35
1.67
4,161
3,777
2,532
P338.0
7,609
7,508
1,4-24
1,509
1.64
p85.2
3,693
3,987
(NA)
(NA)
January
February
March
....
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
r-24.5
1975
January
February
March
(NA)
(NA)
r2.15
pi. 70
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
BCII APRIL 1975
89
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
|QPRICE MOVEMENTS
Year
and
month
Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product
211. Index
(1958=100)
Consumer price indexes
21 1c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
782. Food
All items
781. Index©
781c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(1967=100)
(Percent)
783. Commodities less
food
784. Services®
(1967=100)
781c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
1973
January
February
March
145 .'l
April
May
June
148.0
July
August
September
151.0
October
November
December
154.4-
7.4
127.7
128.6
129.8
0.5
0.6
0.9
6.6
7.2
7.9
129.2
131.4
134.2
120.9
121.4
121.9
135.7
136.2
136.6
8.1
130.7
131.5
132.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
7.2
9.8
8.8
136.1
137.8
139.5
122.4
122.8
123.3
137.1
137.6
138.1
8.4
132.7
135.1
135.5
0.2
1.9
0.4
9.2
9.7
9.7
139.9
148.4
148.0
123.6
124.0
124.4
138.4
139.3
140.6
9.1
136.6
137.6
138.5
0.8
0.8
0.6
11.6
10.2
11.7
149.1
151.2
151.9
125.0
125.9
126.7
142.2
143.0
143.8
14.1
139.7
141.5
143.1
1.1
1.2
1.1
11.0
11.6
12.3
154.5
157.9
158.8
128.3
129.7
131.5
144.8
145.8
147.0
12.2
143.9
145.5
146.9
0.5
1.1
0.9
11.4
11.7
12.2
158.1
159.5
160.0
132.7
134.2
135.8
147.9
149.4
150.9
13.8
148.0
149.9
151.7
0.7
1.3
1.3
13.0
12.7
12.2
159.4
161.7
164.7
137.6
139.6
141.0
152.5
154.2
155.9
12.6
153.0
154.3
155.4
0.9
0.9
0.7
12.1
10.5
166.9
169.2
170.4
141.8
142.9
143.5
157.3
158.6
160.0
156.1
157.2
157.8
0.6
0.6
0.3
171.8
171.9
171.0
144-3
145.5
146.4
161.3
162.6
163.2
1974
January
February
March
159 '.5
April
May
June
164.2
July
August
September
169!Z
October
November
December
174^5
8.3
1975
January
February
March
p7.6
.. .
P177.9
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4-th month.
90
APRIL 1975
BCIt
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
0JPRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month
750. All
commodities®
58. Manufactured
goods©
751. Processed
foods and feeds
752. Farm
products
Industrial commodities
55. Index®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
55c. Change
over 1 -month
spans1
(Percent)
55c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1973
124.5
126.9
129.8
121.6
123.6
125.7
132.4
135.9
140.4
144-6
148.7
158.1
120.0
121.3
122.8
0.2
1.1
1.1
130.5
133.2
136.0
126.4
128.3
130.1
140.4
144.7
151.2
160.9
168.4
177.7
124.2
125.3
126.0
0.9
1.0
0.7
July
August
September
134.3
142.1
139.7
129.1
133.4
131.8
144.6
165.5
156.0
169.7
213.1
201.6
126.1
126.7
127.4
0.1
0.6
0.8
10.9
October
November
December
138.7
139.2
141.8
132.0
132.8
135.1
155.3
154.2
157.0
193.6
191.3
190.6
128.5
130.1
132.2
0.8
1.5
1.4
15.2
18.8
23.9
January
February
March
146.6
149.5
151.4
138.6
140.9
143.6
162.1
163.4
161.9
203.2
202.6
193.5
135.3
138.2
142.4
2.0
2.1
2.9
28.7
31.9
34.0
April
May
June
152.7
155.0
155.7
146.0
149.3
151.5
159.7
158.6
156.8
186.6
178.7
164.3
146.6
150.5
153.6
2.8
2.7
2.2
35.9
36.9
31.9
July
August
September
161.7
167.4
167.2
156.4
161.8
162.4
165.4
179.0
176.4
177.1
189.0
183.8
157.8
161.6
162.9
2.7
2.5
1.0
27.8
23.2
17.8
October
November
December
170.2
171.9
171.5
165.2
166.2
166.9
186.1
192.6
189.7
192.7
195.2
187.1
164.8
165.8
166.1
1.1
0.9
0.0
12.8
171.8
171.3
170.4
168.2
168.0
167.8
186.4
181.2
176.1
180.2
172.0
168.1
167.5
168.4
168.9
0.5
0.5
0.2
January
February
March
April
May
June
. ..
8.2
9.2
10.6
10.3
9.2
8.5
8.2
9.4
1974
8.4
6.6
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
....
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect saries relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes
are placed on the 4-th month.
BUI
APRIL 1975
91
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
^^AGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1
Year
and
month
Real earnings
Current dollar earnings
740. Index
(1967=100)
740c. Change
over 1 -month
spans2
(Percent)
740c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
741. Index
(1967=100)
741c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
741c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
859. Real
private nonfarm economy
spendable
avg. weekly
earnings of
Current dollar compensation
nonagri. prod,
or nonsupv.
745. Index
workers
745c. Change 745c. Change
over 1 -quarter over 4-quarter
spans2
spans2
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
(1967 dol.)
percent)
1973
January
February
March
142.3
142.7
143.5
0.3
0.2
0.6
5.9
5.9
5.9
111.2
110.8
110.5
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
April
May
June
144.4
144.8
146.0
0.7
0.2
0.8
6.4
7.1
7.7
110.5
110.2
110.4
-0.3
July
August
September
146.8
147.7
148.9
0.6
0.6
0.8
7.2
7.8
7.2
110.8
109.4
109.9
-1.2
October
November
December
149.6
150.3
151.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
6.7
6.9
6.5
109.5
109.2
109.1
January
February
March
151.7
152.6
153.6
0.4
0.6
0.6
6.5
7.8
9.6
April
May
June
154-3
156.1
158.2
0.4
1.2
1.3
9.5
rll.l
July
August
September
158.7
160.2
rl6l.9
0.3
1.0
rll.7
rlO.3
October
November
December
rl63.1
rl63.9
rl65.1
-0.6
-1.2
-1.9
96.44
96.28
96.11
145^2
-0.8
-2.5
-1.1
96.39
95.84
95.91
147! 4
-1.8
-1.7
-2.3
96.39
94.82
95.30
149.6
-0.3
-0.1
-4.4
-3.0
-4.6
94-49
94.39
94-25
152.7
108.4
107.7
107.3
-0.7
-0.6
-0.4
-4.1
-3.4
-2.4
92.80
92.49
91.70
155.6
107.2
107.3
107.8
-0.1
-1.7
-1.4
159!9
r-1.0
91.22
91.64
91.60
-0.4
-0.4
r-0.3
r-1.2
r-2.1
r-2.9
91.36
90.90
90.65
163! 7
r8.9
107.4
107.0
r!06.7
r9.3
r8.6
p8.5
r!06.6
r!06.2
r!06.2
-0.1
-0.4
rO.O
r-2.4
r-1.8
90.22
88.73
89.12
rl67.6
r!06.1
r!06.1
p!06.8
r-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.4
-0.3
11.4
7!5
6.3
...
8.1
6.1
7.2
8.5
8.4
1974
rl.l
0.7
0.5
0.7
10.2
0.1
0.4
pO.2
7.9
9.4
11.3
r9!7
10.1
(NA)
r9.7 '
1975
January
February
March
rl66.0
rl66.9
pl68.7
0.5
rO.5
pl.l
rO.O
pO.7
r88.12
r87.69
P87.35
(NA)
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
^-Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month,, l-qt&rter changes are placed
on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month,, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle
month of the 3d quarter.
92
APRIL 1975
BCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.
Year
and
month
748. First
year average
changes
Real compensation
746. Index
(1967=100)
746c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per man-hour, total
private economy
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries®
(Ann. rate,
percent)
749. Average
changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
770. Index
(1967=100)
770c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1
770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
(1967=100)
1973
January
February
March
112.8
April
May
June
112.1
July
August
September
111!]
October
November
December
iii! 6
7.1
5.3
5.6
7.8
r-2.4
6.7
7.2
114.4
6.1
-1.2
...
-1.6
6.3
-2.4
5.6
lli! 9
0.7
113.4
-2J6
113! 3
-2'.!
113.2
-2!]
111! 5
-]!e
110.7
(NA)
110.1
0.5
114. 5
-1.9
l!9
-1.7
1H.9
-0.3
-2.8
5.7
115!]
0.*6
1974
January
February
March
110.1
April
May
June
109.* 9
July
August
September
109.3
October
November
December
r!08.7
-3.2
P6.9
P5.9
p9.0
-0.6
112 .'4
pll.9
p7.9
-2.3
111.8
(NA)
r-2.0
0.3
P7.5
r-2!l
-2.5
-7.5
112.3
-1.9
P14.8
-5.0
p8.7
110.4
109.1
1975
January
February
March
(NA)
(NA)
April
May
June
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
. .
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
APRIL 1975
93
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
HJdVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Unemployment rates
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
841. Total
(Thous.)
842. Employed
(Thous.)
843. Unemployed
844. Males
20 years and
over
(Thous.)
(Percent)
845. Females
20 years and
over
(Percent)
846. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
848. Negro
and other races
847. White
(Percent)
(Percent)
1973
January
February
March
86,964
87,703
88,043
82,633
83,276
83,686
4,331
4,427
4,357
3.4
3.4
3.4
5.2
4.9
4.9
14.3
15.4
14.2
r4-5
r4.5
April
May
June
88,296
88,325
88,791
83,877
84,021
84,487
4,419
4,304
4,304
3.3
3.3
3.2
4.8
4.6
4.9
15.3
15.0
14.0
r4.4
July
August
September
88,902
88,816
89,223
84,679
84,582
84,983
4,223
4,234
4,240
3.1
3.1
3.1
4.8
4.9
4.8
14.3
14.3
14.3
r4.2
October
November
December
89,568
89,852
90,048
85,452
85,577
85,646
4,116
4,275
4,402
3.0
3.1
3.2
4.5
4.7
5.0
14.1
14.6
January
February
March
90,465
90,551
90,381
85,800
85,861
85,779
4,665
4,690
4,602
3.4
3.5
3.4
5.1
5.1
5.0
15.5
15.0
15.0
April
May
June
90,324
90,753
90,857
85,787
86,062
86,088
4,537
4,691
4,769
3.5
3.4
3.5
5.0
5.1
5.1
14.0
15.6
15.8
July
August
September
91,283
91,199
91,705
86,403
86,274
86,402
4,880
4,925
5,303
3.6
3.8
3-9
5.2
5.3
5.7
16.2
15.3
16.7
17.1
17.4
18.1
5.5
5.9
6.4
10.9
11.6
12.5
20.8
19.9
20.6
7.5
7.4
8.0
13.4
13.5
14.2
14.4
4.4
4.4
4.3
8.8
9.0
8.9
9.3
9.1
8.9
4.2
4.2
9.2
8.9
9.3
4.1
4.2
4.4
8.4
8.8
8.4
4.7
4.6
9.2
9.2
9.2
4.5
4.7
4.8
8.8
9.3
9.0
4.8
9.4
9.4
9.9
1974
October
November
December
91,844
91,708
91,803
86,304
85,689
85,202
5,540
6,019
6,601
4.3
4.6
5.3
5.6
6.6
7.2
92,091
91,511
91,829
84,562
84,027
83,849
7,529
7,484
7,980
6.0
6.2
6.8
8.1
8.1
8.5
r4.6
r4.9
5.3
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.
94
APRIL 1975
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
••ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
Year
and
quarter
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
206. Potential GNP
205. Actual GNP
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
770.9
786.6
798.1
814.2
806.8
814.7
822.8
830.9
+35.9
+28.1
+24.7
+16.7
832.8
837.4
84.0.8
845.7
839.1
847.3
855.7
864.1
+6.3
+9.9
830.5
827.1
823.1
r804.0
872.6
881.2
889.9
898 7
p782.3
907 6
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
. ..
+14.9
+18 4
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+42.1
+54.1
+66.8
T»4-Q/
7
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
_._L-| OC
0
P+-L<OO
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.
Special Note on Potential GNP
The following note has been provided by the Council of Economic
Advisers regarding potential GNP.
The idea of potential GNP has had a long history. Its measurement by
the Council of Economic Advisers was started in the Economic Report of
the Council in 1962. Since that time, it has been used as a standard with
which to evaluate the past and future behavior of the economy.
Potential GNP purports to measure what the economy would produce
if all of its resources were fully utilized given the technology and
institutional arrangements that have existed at the time. "Fully utilized" has
never meant the kind of utilization that would prevail, say, under wartime
conditions but rather the utilization that could be expected under conditions
of reasonable price stability. This has always been less than complete
utilization. Under ordinary circumstances, some unemployment is present
because some workers are in the process of changing jobs; similarly, some old
plants are idle because market conditions do not permit them to operate
profitably. In the past, this degree of utilization has been reflected in an
overall unemployment rate of 4 percent. The rate of inflation associated
with that degree of unemployment has typically not been specified.
Furthermore, notions of what constitutes reasonable price stability can vary
over time.
Potential GNP is not something ordinarily observable. In practice, the
APRIL 1975
Council in 1962 made the judgment that the economy was operating at 100
percent of potential in mid-1955. Since that time potential GNP has been
estimated to grow at differing annual rates, as follows: 3.5 percent from the
first quarter of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 1962, 3.75 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1962 to the fourth quarter of 1965, 4 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1969. At the beginning of
1970, the Council estimated that after the fourth quarter of 1969 potential
was growing at an annual rate of 4.3 percent, reflecting a rise of 1.8 percent
in the potential labor force, a 0.2 percent decline in annual hours of work,
and a 2.7 percent rise in output per manhour at potential. Drawing on a new
study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("The United States Economy in
1985", Monthly Labor Review, December 1973), the Council has lowered its
estimate of potential growth after 1969 to 4 percent per annum, reflecting
the following component changes: labor force, 1.8 percent; annual hours,
—0.3 percent; output per manhour, 2.5 percent.
Although potential is presented in the chart on page 61 and the table
above as a point estimate each quarter, it is clearly subject to a margin of
error and consequently, as with any measure of capacity, should be used
with considerable caution. There are uncertainties regarding both the growth
and the level of potential. It cannot be reasonably assumed that potential
grows in each year or quarter at the same annual rate. Some qualifications
about the measure of potential appear on pages 64-65 of the 1974 Economic
Report.
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
^•ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to capacity,
manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories to sales,
manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio, manufacturers' unfilled
orders to shipments,
durable goods
industries
853. Ratio,
production of
business equipment
to consumer goods
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1967=100)
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
(Ratio)
860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
857. Vacancy rate
in total rental
housing®
(Percent)
1973
January
February
March
p82.*8
1.46
1.46
1.45
2.59
2.61
2.67
90.1
90.8
90.7
0.075
0.839
0.800
0.827
5.7
April
May
June
pB3\3
1.46
1.46
1.48
2.73
2.79
2.89
91.4
92.0
92.9
0.078
0.815
0.844
0.851
5^8
July
August
September
p83*.3
1.45
1.46
1.47
2.89
3.01
3.06
92.6
95.0
95.1
0.080
0.923
0.886
0.843
5*.8
October ...
November
December
p82.6
1.45
1.44
1.49
3.00
3.04
3.14
95.2
95.7
96.6
0.095
0.890
0.836
0.771
5!8
January
February . . .
March
p80.5
1.47
1.47
1.46
3.13
3.16
3.15
98.1
99.2
99.3
0.089
0.708
0.686
0.718
6.*2
April
May
June
p8o!l
1.46
1.47
1.50
3.21
3.22
3.30
100.4
100.0
0.074
0.761
0.730
0.724
&
July
August
September
1.47
1.48
1.51
3.38
101.0
P79.4
3.44
3.45
...
0.066
6*.2
102.7
0.726
0.695
0.578
October
November .
December
p75.*7
1.54
1.59
1.68
3.30
3.38
3-57
103.0
103.7
r!03.0
0.086
0.505
0.425
0.356
<s!6
1.68
3.50
P68.3
pi. 66
3.45
(NA)
rlOl.l
101.3
P98.3
pO.074
0.289
0.282
p0.26l
6.1
1974
99.5
99.2
1975
January
February . . .
March ...
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
96
APRIL 1975
BCIft
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
jfflJDIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)
D11. Newly approved
capital appropriations^
The Conference Board
(17 industries)
9-month
span
1-month
span
1-quarter
span
D1. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
3-quarter
span
D34. Profits,
D19. Index of stock
mfg., FNCB
prices, 500 common stocks
about 1,000
(65-71 industries)2®
orporations)
1-quarter
span
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1 -month
span
9-month
span
1973
January
February
March
35.7
95.2
59.5
50.0
28.6
33.3
65.7
61.4
77.1
90.0
85.7
91.4
82
...
94
...
62
26.8
14.5
19.6
26.5
19.1
25.0
84.6
84.6
76.9
92.3
92.3
92.3
April
May
June
50.0
28.6
19.0
26.2
61.9
71.4
61.4
54.3
48.6
82.9
88.6
85.7
53
76
61
21.7
14.7
15.4
19.1
17.6
30.9
61.5
80.8
76.9
92.3
92.3
92.3
July
August
September
57ol
33.3
19.0
21.4
48.6
48.6
52.9
82.9
62.9
68.6
59
82
28.6
83.3
55
66.2
41.9
88.2
23.9
16.4
26.9
73.1
65.4
46.2
92.3
69.2
76.9
16.7
16.7
65.7
55.7
34.3
82.9
74.3
68.6
59
59
60
89.0
35.8
53.7
35.8
46.2
69.2
69.2
100.0
65.7
57.1
57.1
82.9
85.7
71.4
47
28.8
10.6
84.6
69.2
53.8
69.2
76.9
61.5
57.1
65.7
47.1
74.3
68.6
60.0
59
61.5
38.5
53.8
61.5
46.2
46.2
60.0
45.7
40.0
45.7
14.3
14-3
59
10.8
38.5
46.2
42.3
46.2
23.1
23.1
45.7
18.6
17.1
11.4
P5.7
23.1
38.5
19.2
23.1
October
November
December
16.7
54. 8
50.0
9.5
7.5
13.4
84.6
76.9
1974
January
February
March
21.4
50.0
42.9
7.1
April
May
June
92.9
57.1
July
August
September
14-3
50.0
35.7
October
November
December
40.5
11.9
28.6
28.6
11.9
7.1
7.1
0.0
19.0
9.5
0.0
47.6
0.0
p4.8
53
59
...
65
58
85.8
50.7
91.0
9.7
27.3
39.4
p24
P41
(NA)
58
44
4.5
7.6
1.5
66.2
70.8
6.1
6.1
10.6
4.6
4.6
3.1
9.2
7.7
3
23.1
23.1
23.1
1975
January
February
March
16.7
48.6
r21.4
p23.8
r51.4
P34-3
April
May
(NA)
(NA)
53.8
42.3
38.5
95.4
93.8
86.2
3
53.8
June
July . . .
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on 2d
month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components
for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
2
Based on 71 components in January 1973? on 69 components through April 1973? on 68 components through October 1973?
on 67 components through April 1974? on 66 components through September 1974? and on 65 components thereafter. Component
data are not shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency.
3
Average for April 1? 8, and 15-
APRIL 1975
97
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
HhlFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
1-month
span
9-month
span
67.0
74.5
3.6.2
68.1
66.0
74.5
April
May
June
53.2
36.2
57.4
July
August
September
Roughly Coincident Indicators
D41. Number of employees
on nonagriculural payrolls
(30 industries)
1 -month
span
D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)©
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
9-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
70.0
86.7
83.3
86.7
81.7
85.0
79.2
91.7
62.5
83.3
79.2
83.3
95.5
97.7
95.5
100.0
87.0
76.1
65.2
100.0
95.5
95.5
38.3
68.1
57.4
70.0
65.0
81.7
83.3
78.3
68.3
50.0
77.1
54.2
79.2
77.1
79.2
95.5
90.9
84.1
95-5
95.5
95.5
30.4
69.6
56.5
100.0
100.0
63.8
46.8
44.7
57.4
68.3
70.0
51.7
80.0
86.7
85.0
70.8
70.8
62.5
79.2
70.8
54.2
75.0
91.0
77.3
90.9
95.5
95.5
73.9
34.8
73.9
69.6
47.8
91.3
46.8
72.3
38.3
29.8
23.4
86.7
75.0
60.0
88.3
71.7
68.3
45.8
62.5
45.8
45.8
35.4
45.8
79.5
86.4
90.9
95.5
90.9
90.9
65.2
56.5
43.5
87.0
95.7
87.0
53.2
83.0
40.4
19.1
14.9
34.0
48.3
48.3
51.7
56.7
53.3
50.0
35.4
37.5
64.6
39.6
33-3
52.1
90.9
95.5
88.6
95.5
95.5
95.5
78.3
60.9
78.3
91.3
78.3
95.7
April
May
June
51.1
56.4
34.0
12.8
55.3
44.7
48.3
56.7
51.7
45.0
43.3
46.7
47.9
70.8
50.0
54.2
41.7
41.7
91.0
84.1
81.8
95.5
90.9
90.9
47.8
65.2
34.8
91.3
87.0
82.6
July
August
September
75.5
48.9
28.7
0.0
6.4
8.5
51.7
56.7
48.3
45.0
36.7
20.0
39.6
37.5
52.1
31.3
12.5
rlO.4
81.8
77.3
68.2
77.3
72.7
72.7
95.7
52.2
60.9
52.2
45-7
65.2
46.8
2.1
4-3
20.0
rl6.7
pl6.7
33.3
20.8
r!2.5
72.7
68.2
65.9
72.7
68.2
68.2
43.5
21.7
52.2
P60.9
53.2
41.7
13.3
15.0
55.3
29.8
55.3
rl3-3
rl6.7
P23.3
1 -month
span
6-month
span
1 -month
span
1973
January
February
March
.. .
October
November
December
....
2.1
8.5
8.5
97.8
95.7
87.0
1974
January
February
March
....
....
October
November
December
8.5
8.3
r8.3
P6.3
r76.1
1975
January
February
March
....
r25.0
r4.2
P25.0.
63.6
63.6
59.1
r73.9
r71.7
P47.8
April
May
June
July .
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d
month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires
no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
•'-Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
98
APRIL 1975
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components:
Basic Data and Directions of Change
1974
1975
Diffusion index components
August
September
November
October
February1"
January
December
MarchP
D1. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(Average weekly hours)
o
All manufacturing industries
40.2
-
(50)
Percent rising of 21 components
40.0
+
(36)
40.1
39.5
(40)
(12)
-
-
39.4
39.2
-
-
(21)
(17)
(29)
38.8
38.7
(24)
Durable goods industries:
41.9
38.5
37.7
-
41.8
38.1
37.3
+
-
42.1
37.9
36.4
+
+
41.5
38.4
36.6
-
41.2
38.2
36.4
41-4
42.2
41-2
41-7
-
41.0
41.1
-
40.9
r40.5
-
40.4
40.2
-
39.6
39.9
-
41-0
42.4
40.4
42.3
+
-
40.6
42.1
-
40.4
41.8
-
39.7
41.3
o
-
39.7
41-1
39.8
40.2
+
39.7
40.6
-
39.4
39.5
+
o
39.5
39.5
o
39.4
r39.5
-
39.0
38.9
o
-
39.0
38.6
-
40.1
38.6
-
39.9
38.4
o
39.9
38.0
+
39.8
38.1
o
r39.5
r38.1
-
38.8
37.5
+
38.7
37.6
40.4
37.6
+
40.3
38.5
o
-
40.3
37.0
40.0
37.4
o
+
40.0
37.7
-
39.9
r37.3
o
+
39.9
37.6
+
+
40.3
39.3
o
39.5
35.3
o
39.2
35.3
+
38.3
35.4
37.6
34-4
-
36.6
34.2
-
r36.0
34-0
+
-
36.1
33.6
+
-
36.7
33.5
+
42.1
37.8
-
41.9
37.6
+
37.7
41-3
37.4
-
41.2
37.3
+
41.1
37.5
-
40.7
37.2
-
40.5
36.9
. . . o
-
41.8
41-9
+
41.5
42.2
+
41.4
42.6
41.2
42.2
+
41.0
42.3
-
40.6
r42.0
-
40.5
41.6
-
40.4
41.3
+
+
40.7
37.2
-
40.5
36.7
+
+
40.8
37.0
39.8
36.6
-
39.5
36.1
o
-
39.5
35.7
-
38.8
35.2
-
38.3
35.1
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
o
-
41.3
39.9
38.9
+
-
41-5
39.2
38.8
-
41.4
38.9
38.6
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
-
a. 3
+
41.8
o
+
41.3
42.1
+
+
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
+
+
41.0
42.7
+
o
41.2
42.7
. . . +
39.6
40.7
+
-
+
-
40.4
38.7
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
+
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
.
+
Nondurable goods industries:
Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products
+
- a. 7
-
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries .
+ 49,463
Percent rising of 35 components
- 46,402
(46)
- 45,084
(40)
-
(46)
43,182
- 37,842
2
- 36,062
(17)
(19)
+ 37,023
(49)
- 35,672
(51)
(34)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
+ 10,010
- 5,784
+
8,611
5,871
-
8,378
5,555
-
7,863
5,226
-
6,297
4,387
+
5,071
4,720
+
+
5,378
4,784
-
4,982
4,283
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
-
-
8,120
5,149
+
8,001
5,192
-
7,559
4,926
-
7,426
4,439
+
6,837
4,919
+
6,805
4,931
-
6,715
4,657
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
+ 11,766
+ 8,124
- 10,012
- 7,946
-
9,775
7,833
-
8,050
7,243
+
7,253
7,262
+
-
8,030
7,095
+
-
8,071
6,964
8,232
5,547
- 10,623
- 8,028
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
2
APRIL 1975
99
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1975
1974
Diffusion index components
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
Aprill
March
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price index (1967=100) . . . . -
224.2 -
214.7 -
204-4 -
196.4 - 183.4
- 180.1 +
181.1 + 182.3
+ 185.2
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Lead scrap
Steel scrap
Tin
Zinc
Burlap
Cotton, 12-market average
Print cloth, average
. . .
Hides
Rosin
.
Rubber
Tallow .
..
.
(pound) . . (kilogram) . .
(yard) . . +
(meter) . .
. . .
(pound)
(kilogram) . .
(pound)
(kilogram) . .
+
(100 pounds)
(100 kilograms) ..
(pound) . (kilogram) . .
+
(pound)
(kilogram) . .
0.505 1.113
0.584 o
0.639
2.228 +
4.912
0.255 0.562
40.722 +
89.776
0.341 0.752
0.163 0.359
0.497
1.096
0.584
0.639
2.495
5.500
0.248
0.547
42.882
94.538
0.329
0.725
0.142
0.313
+
-
-
(8)
(23)
0.480 0.648 0.495 (pound) . . 1.058
1.091
(kilogram) . .
1.429
0.115 - 0.112 (pound) - 0.119
0.262
0.247
(kilogram) . .
0.254
(U S ton) + 150.000 - 116.959 - 115.230 127.018
(metric ton) . .
128.924
165.345
3.664 +
(pound) . . - 4.110 + 4.198 8.078
9.061
(kilogram) . .
9.255
0.390 +
(pound) +
0.387 +
0.374 +
(kilogram) . .
0.860
0.825
0.853
(yard)
0.280 0.280 o
+
0.274 +
(meter) . .
0.306
0.306
0.300
Copper scrap
Wool tops
(19)
(42)
(46)
(38)
(42)
(54)
(54)
0.469 - 0.431 - 0.397 + 0.399 + 0.400 + 0.407
0.882
0.880
0.897
0.950
0.875
1.034
0.106 0.098 + 0.099 - 0.091 - 0.086 - 0.082
0.181
0.190
0.218
0.201
0.216
0.234
112.821 - 86.762 - 75.758 o 75.744 - 72.206 + 84.830
93-508
83.508
95.638
124.363
79.593
83-493
3.681 3.508 + 3.700 + 3.723 - 3.514 - 3.420
8.208
7.540
7.747
8.157
8.115
7.734
0.393 - 0.391 + 0.394 - 0.391 - 0.379 - 0.376
0.836
0.862
0.829
0.866
0.862
0.869
0.260 0.235 + 0.236 + 0.239 - 0.227 - 0.209
0.248
0.261
0.229
0.258
0.257
0.284
0.450 - 0.413 - 0.388
0.475 0.910
0.992
1.047
0.855
0.586 0.576 + 0.579
0.596 0.630
0.652
0.641
0.633
2.088 - 1.967
2.152 2.092 4.336
4.612
4.603
4-744
0.207 - 0.197 - 0.186 - 0.175
0.386
0.456
0.410
0.434
42.778 - 42.056 - 41.438 + 42.181
92.992
94-308
92.717
91.354
0.307 - 0.288
0.279 +
0.314 0.692
0.635
0.615
0.677
0.141 + 0.146 - 0.117 + 0.123
0.258
0.271
0.322
0.311
+ 0.401
0.884
- 0.577
0.631
- 1.802
3.973
- 0.166
0.366
- 42.097
92.807
+ 0.294
0.648
- 0.119
0.262
+
+
+
+
-
0.406
0.895
0.583
0.638
1.860
4.101
0.201
0.443
41.782
92.113
0.287
0.633
0.108
0.238
+ 0.415
0.915
+ 0.590
0.645
- 1.802
3-973
+ 0.219
0.483
- 40.972
90.327
+ 0.291
0.642
+ 0.112
0.247
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
+
Percent rising of 30 components
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
78,661 +
(57)
o
o
+
+
o
84
541
437
557
1,069
1,152
1,490
1,353
1,269
333
355
+
+
+
+
+
78,84A +
78,865 -
(48)
(42)
86
532
433
548
1,082
1,144
1,500
1,368
1,277
331
350
o
+
+
+
86
514
421
541
1,084
1,128
1,508
1,354
1,285
329
343
78,404 -
(15)
(13)
-
85
491
404
531
1,068
1,103
1,494
1,299
1,249
324
332
77,690 -r77,227 -r76,678
+
-
86
481
390
516
1,035
1,059
1,467
1,242
1,176
318
316
-
85
r463
371
r499
rl,011
r1,011
rl,440
rl,208
rl,126
r314
310
- 76,353
(17)
(13)
+
-
(23)
r86 +
r447
361
r487
- r971
r992
- rl,399
- rl,155
- rl,057
r305
r305
+
o
87
444
355
475
940
980
1,369
1,133
1,113
301
305
1,170 + 1,180 - 1,174 - 1,160 - 1,150 - rl,132 - rl,127 + 1,130
66 62 +
64
r65
64
61 +
63 +
64
760 876
850
797
744
827
+
883
r744 o
985
1,112 - 1,059 - rl,032 - rl,009
- 1,157 - 1,152 - 1,136 r488
477
528
516 536
r504
547
542
r646
640
658
656
667
654 669
o
673
572
602 r579
r589 626
617
+
624 +
625
rl!7
109
rl!4
124
123 124 o
123 +
123 o
436
r477 r^6
517
542
493 +
542
544
216
237
237 o
r223 - r217
242
231 245
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for April 1, 8, and 15.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The industrial materials price index is not
seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products
100
+
APRIL 1975
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1975
1974
September
August
October
November
December
January1"
Februaryr
March?
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS-Con. 1
(Thousands of employees)
682
+
676 +
3,939
+
3,965 + 4,701 4,679
+
4,272 +
4,275
+ 12,868 + 12,891
+ 4,168 + 4,176
+ 13,573 + 13,647
2,747
+
2,740 +
+ 11,586 + 11,696
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service
Federal Government
State and local government
+
692
- 3,911
+
4,699
+
4,287
- 12,873
+ 4,185
+ 13,705
+
2,748
+ 11,783
700
662 +
+
693
3,798 - 3,861 3,789
4,668 4,607
4,697 4,242
4,267 4,283 - 12,765 - 12,645 - 12,621
- 4,183 o 4,182 - 4,173
+ 13,721 + 13,734 + 13,747
2,738 2,733
2,746 + 11,822 + 11,850 + 11,897
+
703
3,597
4,558
4,223
o 12,618
- 4,155
+ 13,761
o
2,733
+ 12,038
+
707
3,489
4,532
- 4,213
- 12,591
- 4,147
- 13,735
+
2,734
+ 12,069
- 110.7
- 109.6
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1967=100)
- 125.2
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components2
(38)
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
- 121.9
+ 131.5
+
+
o
+ 125.6
- 124.8
(52)
+ 123.0
+ 132.0
(33)
+ 126.0
- 129.6
136.4 + 137.8 - 137.4
123.7 + 126.4 - 124.0
99.9
+ 100.4 + 102.1
146.7 - 144.9 - 142.0
- 121.7
-
- 113.7
(8)
(21)
- 121.0
- 128.2
rl!7.4
-
rl08.6 - 107.4
124-1 - 118.3
135^1 - rl32.5
- 121.7 - 116.3
- 126.1
111.1
83.6
93.7
(4)
(25)
- 100.7
97.4
- 112.1 - 100.7
122*.l
- 106.7
76.1
79.3
+ 142.3
-
r!39.5
- 138.9
-
134-2
-
111.5
- 124.6
- 121.5
- 123.0
- 116.6
- 122.9
- 109.3
118 '.8
- 105.2
-
rll6.9
rl01.3
- 115.2
- 130.5
+ 148.8
- 129.4
- 147.5
- 125.5
- 146.9
- 120.5
- 136.9
12CU4
- 135.7
- 111.6
- 127.7
124-3
- 102.5
- 121.9
o 102.5
+
74-2
- 119.1
+ 102.8
- 112.8 - 100.1 + 74.7
95.1
(25)
+
-
. ...
73.4
70.6
69.7
-
96.0
96.5
65.9
80.2
132.9
101.5
(NA)
(NA)
92.2
-
rl02.9
r98.0
119.7
104.3
117.1
(NA)
(NA)
- 109.5
- 126.5
89.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
89.5
93.0
(NA)
64.0
- 103.6
132!2
o 113.4
+ 135.3 + 114.4 -
+ 156.7 + 158.3
- 125.8 - 121.9
+ 169.0 - 168.6
- 126.3
+ 104.2
- 125.7
+ 106.0
133 '.9
111.9
- 155.9
+ 125.4
- 161.8
- 122.4
+ 110.3
124^3
- 110.0
- rll6.1 - 113.6
- 109.8 - 106.2
148 .*3 + 127.0 - 155.7 -
1-143! i
r!25.8
r!48.9
- 137.7
+ 126.9
- 136.1
+ 125.4 +
- 103.8
r!25.7
96.2
+ 125.9
+ 104.7
- 107.0
- 104.5
- 135.7
- 123.4
- 135.6
- 123.0
- 124.5
(NA)
- 107.9
+ 112.1 - 110.3
- 107.1 + 107.4
- 106.4
+
-
r85.3
r!03.6
+ 111.5
+ 103.9
+ 113.0
- 103.4
110.0
+ 109.9
+
13o! 5
+
14L.4
- 105.0 + 107.5
136!8
+ 109.8
134-7
- 106.4
- 132.7
+ 107.9
129! 9
- 105.6
99.4
67.6
(NA)
-
103.4
131.4
134.0
121.2
(NA)
122 . 5
- 123.8
(NA)
+ 114.9
+ 104.7
111.1
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
APRIL 1975
101
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1974
1975
Diffusion index components
August
October
September
December
November
March
February
January
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millionsof dollars)
+
All retail sales
Percent rising of 23 components^ . . . .
-
(52)
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise)
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel accessory stores
Shoe stores
..
(61)
45,803
-
9,698 +
3,623 +
4,712 513
+
+
746
507
810
332
745
495
824
318
753
477
817
321
...
+
+
+
1,325 +
691
1,509 +
415 +
8,355 688 +
3,480 +
1,408 +
887 +
1,335
676
1,514
+
+
+
444-
7,477 716
3,503 +
1,415 +
888 +
1,282
638
1,517
440
+
Percent rising of 22 components
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables
Nonmetallic minerals products
Iron a n d steel . . .
161.8
+
162.4
+
(68)
(77)
-
6,814 700
3,507 1,429 891
165.2
9,740
3,715
4,627
499
732
450
766
307
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING
(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries
44,469
+
44,821 + r45,955
(52)
(22)
(44)
9,626 +
3,530 +
4,737 514
+
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
-
9,553 +
3,498 +
4,740 492 +
.
46,177
+
+
+
-
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
47,056
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
9,957
3,849
4,718
487
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
684
444
800
303
+
+
+
+
r720 +
r473 +
r844
r323 +
732
536
815
335
+
+
+
+
rl,237 +
r625 +
rl,424 r471 o
1,240
643
1,420
471
(MA)
(NA)
(NA)
r6,971
r725
r3,465
rl,436
r871
+
+
+
+
7,533
751
3,44-9
1,444
892
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
168.2
-
168.0
1,240
629
1,465
427
+
1,193
617
1,412
431
6,254
665
3,397
1,402
884
+
+
+
+
+
6,668
690
3,399
1,461
886
+
+
+
-
166.9
+
r9,945
r3,784
r4,497
r485
(M)
INDUSTRIES 3
166.2
+
(66)
-
(64)
(64)
167.8
\59)
164.7
138.8
168.5
199.4
178.8
185.4
178.3
172.6
+
+
+
+
169.3
139.1
170.3
200.5
+
+
+
169.6
138.5
170.8
200.6
+
+
+
176.1
189.4
178.7
173.9
+
+
+
173.9
189.9
180.0
174.8
153.1
136.5
140.7
142.4
+
158.1
+ 138.1
- 140.2
+ 145.5
+
+
+
+
158.6 - 158.5
138.7 + 139.1
141.5 + 143.0
146.4 + 146.8
o
+
188.2
165.7
107.3
132.3
133.7
+
186.4 162.0 103.8 o
130.7 133.8 -
182.6
158.0
103.8
129.3
133.6
-
177.3
156.0
102.0
121.7
133.3
+
+
+
+
-
167.2
174.0
238.5
149.4
143.2
+
+
+
+
-
169.8
176.0
242.3
149.6
142.1
o
+
+
-
169.8
178.1
240.7
150.0
141.7
+
+
+
+
170.0
181.8
242.3
149.7
143.2
+
+
+
180.4
132.8
159.8
198.1
- 169.4
+ 135.5
+ 162.2
+. 199.0
+
+
+
165.8 136.9 +
163.4 +
199.7 -
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
+
+
+
+
200.4
175.1
166.7
158.0
+
+
+
197.0
179.9
170.9
161.8
+
+
+
190.8
182.0
174-1
166.1
+
+
+
187.2
182.5
175.6
168.9
+
+
+
+
+
+
181.8 182.9 +
176.7 +
170.9 +
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
..
+
+
+
+
143.5
128.5
130.1
135.4
+
+
+
+
145.0 +
130.4 +
130.6 +
136.3 +
149.5
132.4
138.1
137.1
+
+
+
+
152.7
135-4
138.9
140.7
+
+
+
+
+
+
179.7
180.9
117.7
138.9
132.4
+
176.8
179.3
116.5
137.7
133.0
+
+
183.5
173.4
112.3
135.1
133.1
+
+
189.7
170.8
107.3
134.2
133.6
+ 162.9 +
+ 158.5 +
+
243.9 + 143.4 +
- 146.2 +
164.2
161.7
243.0
145.6
148.1
+
+
+
+
-
166.0
168.5
244-3
147.5
145.2
+
+
+
-
166.9
172.9
238.2
148.5
144.5
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
(48)
+
+
+
183.7
129.8
157.6
195.7
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products . . .
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
46,550
(72)
(74)
+
+
+
. . .
-
9,610
3,721
4,608
415
+
(68)
(73)
+ r46,830
165.4
137.7
164.3
196.7
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
The
3
102
APRIL 1975
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
HjlNDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
HICONSUMER PRICES
781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices®
133. Canada,
index of
consumer
prices®
132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices®
135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®
136. France,
index of
consumer
prices®
138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices®
137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices®
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
January
February
March
128
129
130
125
126
126
144
144
145
126
127
128
136
136
137
138
140
143
127
128
130
122
123
124
139
142
142
120
123
124
150
151
146
April
May
June
131
132
132
128
129
130
148
149
150
129
129
130
138
139
140
145
148
148
131
133
134
124
125
126
142
142
144
121
121
122
144
153
151
July
August
September
133
135
136
131
133
133
151
151
152
130
130
131
141
142
143
150
151
155
135
136
137
127
126
127
143
139
142
123
123
123
153
153
150
137
138
138
134
135
136
155
157
158
132
133
134
145
146
147
154
156
160
138
139
141
127
128
126
144
146
146
125
123
119
153
154
148
January
February
March
140
142
143
137
138
139
161
163
165
135
137
137
150
152
153
167
173
174
144
147
149
125
125
125
148
149
150
113
115
119
r!57
April
May
June
144
146
147
140
143
144
170
173
175
138
139
139
156
158
159
179
179
181
151
154
157
125
126
126
148
147
147
121
121
122
r!55
July
August
September
148
150
152
146
147
148
176
176
177
139
140
140
161
163
165
184
185
189
160
163
168
126
125
126
146
146
145
124
123
rl60
October
November
December
153
154
155
149
151
152
182
185
188
141
142
142
167
168
169
193
194
195
171
174
176
125
122
145
143
142
r!21
156
157
158
153
154
155
192
196
144
144
171
173
196
196
198
139
pHO
p!20
(NA)
Year
and
month
1973
October
November
December
....
1974
rl!7
r!21
121
115
156
153
157
157
r!60
r!52
rl52
147
143
1975
January
February
March
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
208
(NA)
114
rill
pllO
p!44
(NA)
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
.. .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
BCII APRIL
1975
103
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
^SSTOCK PRICES
HllNDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Con.
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
121.0ECD, 1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
19. United
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks©
143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices®
142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices®
146. France, 145. West
index of
Germany,
stock
index of
prices®
stock
prices®
148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®
147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
January
February
March
150
156
151
186
186
193
142
144
142
124
123
123
129
124
122
146
145
143
182
168
164
174
173
185
167
165
173
387
364
363
83
84
93
April
May
June
153
152
154
190
196
197
142
144
145
132
134
138
120
117
114
142
135
135
168
167
171
191
196
190
174
161
157
344
339
338
97
109
125
July
August
September
147
154
156
197
200
201
144
146
147
141
131
139
115
113
115
141
144
146
161
156
154
183
179
180
146
144
140
355
351
333
118
105
107
October
November
December
155
156
156
205
207
203
148
148
141
139
138
119
111
103
153
148
134
159
151
126
183
166
166
141
135
126
325
313
285
109
108
97
January
February
March
154
154
153
202
202
199
147
147
147
148
143
144
104
102
106
139
141
146
126
124
116
173
167
153
131
129
126
293
308
304
106
108
112
April
May
June
154
153
154
196
200
193
149
150
146
149
101
98
98
136
123
122
112
112
103
145
134
134
128
125
120
305
303
306
116
106
97
July
August
September
151
151
151
194
188
188
148
147
147
145
131
90
83
74
118
113
101
93
82
74
135
125
106
113
113
107
295
270
261
90
88
76
October
November
December
143
149
185
182
173
145
143
137
76
78
73
101
97
93
71
65
58
114
113
117
104
106
110
239
245
255
P79
79
87
91
103
rpl!2
pllO
69
99
109
p!70
p!96
pll6
P124
rp!99
P83
rp!34
250
271
284
rp84
pl!2
plU
p203
p296
p8l
Year
and
month
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
(1967=100)
1973
r!46
1974
p!43
r!49
150
r!45
135
127
122
74
P73
1975
January
February
March
(NA)
tiL66
(NA)
p!39
(NA)
P130
(NA)
April
May
June
P91
P140
P73
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
104
APRIL 1975
!!€!»
3
PENDIXES
Current Adjustment Factors
19 75
19 74
Series
July
. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
New business incorporations
1
Aug.
83.5
74.5
83.7
105.0
94-3
90.8
100.8
100.9
. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies 1 4 . .
. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
681
103.5
. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing 3
99.2
101.1
901
101.3
99.5
143.9
109.5
92.7
93.6
107.0
95.5
108.5
May
88.6
107.3
97.0
98.2
99.0
98.7
99.0
99.2
99.8
99.9
-281
-368
510
-939
-1206
-349
-114
93.0
89.3
97.7
89.7
98.7
102.5
107.9
107.9
99.5
99.9
100.0
100.4
100.8
100.4
100.3
101.0
-81
100. L
105.6
86.4
104.8
107.5
99.9
100.4
79.9
June
100.8
287
104.4
99.8
101.1
910
103.8
99.8
98.8
99.8
99.4
104.6
92.5
87.8
107.8
91.5
91.0
92.9
81.6
129.8
83.7
104.2
118.2
97.1
115.0
133.1
104.0
84.9
80.5
62.0
164.0
98.5
102.4
100.1
84.9
103.3
96.6
83.3
93.2
70.7
69.1
175.6
107.4
-13
138.4
Apr.
98.9
113.1
[ Profits, manufacturing (FNCB)
103.8
Mar.
99.1
. Defense Department obligations, total
112.3
Feb.
98.9
100.5
5
Jan.
99.7
101.0
69.4
Dec.
100.0
. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . .
'.
Nov.
86.5
97.4
. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index,
manufacturing 3
Military prime contract awards in U S
Oct.
115.0
. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
manufacturing 2
. Defense Department obligations,
procurement
Sept.
3
-8
101.2
100.9
18
\IOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., rather than by the source agency. Seasonal adjustments
kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in Business Conditions Digest whenever they are available. For a deDtion of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
This series is derived from seasonally adjusted components; it is further adjusted by these factors to remove residual seasonal variation.
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are
iputed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program.
1-quarter diffusion index; factors are placed in the first month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed and these factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11
ant of the Census Method 11 seasonal adjustment program, are subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
105
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Annual
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
14. CURRENT LIABILITIES OF BUSINESS FAILURES ®
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
II Q
III Q
IV Q
1
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
5.88
4.37
15.19
12.96
19.16
26.44
21.68
26.21
23.31
29.59
1.56
2.98
12.98
25.62
27.57
22.16
16.01
19.47
27.27
47.77
3.88
4.42
15.25
17.48
37.19
27.90
17.65
29.23
31.08
57.28
0.98
3.78
16.08
15.30
31.93
21.25
17.06
29.53
27.52
42.51
2.21
3.66
17.33
13.81
24.58
22.67
23.50
21.19
32.79
38.49
3.20
3.01
18.98
12.16
28.16
16.07
22.77
21.22
32.38
41.61
3.66
3.43
20.70
13.88
21.80
19.54
21.09
22.79
39.83
32.23
1.17
3.80
14.90
21.44
31.18
18.45
26.42
16.32
28.53
32.58
1.66
4.88
10.03
20.70
20.60
15.25
26.64
20.14
33.82
36.38
3.11
6.40
21.32
25.11
23.89
16.65
29.74
35.05
37.08
29.00
1.27
9.51
16.34
24.42
22.80
16.86
17.57
18.76
36.80
35.07
1.65
17.10
25.50
31.73
19.25
21.04
19.40
23.40
43.75
40.10
11.32
11.77
43.42
56.06
83.92
76.50
55.34
74.91
81.66
134.64
6.39
10.45
52.39
41.27
84.67
61.99
63.33
71.94
92.69
122.61
6.49
12.11
45.63
56.02
73.58
53.24
74.15
59.25
102.18
101.19
6.03
33.01
63.16
81.26
65.94
56.55
66.71
77.21
117.63
104.17
30.23
67.34
204.60
234.61
308.11
248.28
259.53
283.31
394.16
462.61
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
37.87
42.89
54.06
64.44
73.56
53.67
81.52
106.61
160.96
96.73
42.06
49.19
65.41
65.30
58.59
60.94
88.08
90.50
94.72
123.94
41.21
42.62
55.83
71.56
65.05
70.19
126.62
80.88
97.70
111.00
35.97
41.87
57.10
83.98
71.91
69.19
86.11
121.83
100.76
112.88
34.71
59.9Q
52.55
56.25
50.92
73.31
80.47
91.51
118.27
93.4?
3b,67
43.01
51.45
61.44
49.20
126.45
83.83
88.49
86.15
144.50
32.54
48.69
44.30
65.38
51.20
61.73
69.17
91.57
120.51
125.64
36.03
55.04
43.51
50.76
54.50
97.59
102.69
146.83
65.23
95.18
33.12
39.31
45.42
48.10
54.74
80.60
116.66
96.16
65.92
114.56
34.78
50.00
47.43
47.27
50.38
81.51
70.26
119.09
91.83
93.77
42.78
39.89
52.90
56.72
53.21
84.46
119.21
98. 8"
262.11
119.32
41.64
50.28
45.32
57.07
59.56
78.97
65.49
81.28
68.43
98.28
121.14
134.70
175.30
201.30
197.20
184.80
296.22
277.99
353.38
331.67
107.35
144.78
161.10
201.67
172.03
268.95
250.41
301.83
305.18
350.80
101.69
143.04
133.23
164.24
160.44
239.92
288.52
334.56
271.66
335.38
119.20
140.17
145.65
161.06
163.15
244.94
254.96
299.21
422.37
311.37
449.38
562.69
615.28
728.27
692.82
938.61
1090.11
1213.59
1352.59
1329.22
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
89.27
103.18
106.17
104.49
75.03
137.28
163.80
101.62
205.84
111.98
95.54
113.45
79.60
69.99
139.39
150.9Q
191.33
137.16
146.58
103.47
119.32
88.59
84.12
120.02
224.65
220.66
252.35
83.25
110.14
103.82
80.11
118.76
131.90
153.80
1U8.47
119.34
133.11
96.36
93.37
91.41
92.6o
147.89
249,49
190.14
167.95
144.61
123.58
104.64
74.66
91.92
170.50
165.84
127.90
180.21
121.48
69.88
72.55
90.27
112.73
251.92
147.03
204.62
206.19
135.04
178.09
108.90
65.77
62.83
169.59
155.56
253.62
190.15
104.98
129.16
93.94
58.65
73.70
?3?.94
115.85
113.54
189.47
82.07
108.05
81.63
65.38
116.44
144.77
144.70
152.97
185.66
71.72
106.73
69.98
58.65
127.14
119.84
129.00
208.58
218.67
97.58
161.48
195.45
83.41
96.85
121.72
111.32
86.79
245.62
347.83
302.19
340.94
272.68
249.14
396.69
544.35
513.61
595.35
360.97
330.10
301.83
246.18
303.28
450.29
569.13
466.51
467.50
361.50
377.13
275.39
214.69
249.26
654.45
418.44
571.78
565.81
251.37
376.26
347.06
207.44
340.43
386.33
385.02
448.34
649.95
1321.67
1385.68
1265.22
940.99
1142.11
1887.76
1916.94
2000.24
2298.61
28. MEW PRIVATE HOUSING UNITS STARTED, TOTAL 2
(ANNUAL RATE, THOUSANDS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949. . .
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1>040
1,052
1,385
1,196
1,683
1,928
1,368
1,484
1,358
1,085
1,074
1,200
1,137
1,834
,638
,516
,460
,417
1,167
1,032
1,379
1,171
1,976
1,481
1,483
1,506
1,411
1,057
1,039
1,501
1,292
1,945
1,352
1,412
1,498
1,433
1,02R
l,09o
l,45o
1,319
2,052
1,359
1,408
1,425
1,41?
985
1,174
1,441
1*341
2,042
1,419
1,353
1,380
1,498
972
1,252
1,419
1,384
2,051
1,257
1,438
1,346
1,559
1,007
1,355
,329
,500
,121
,334
,443
*324
1,563
958
1,532
1,303
1,603
1,821
1,456
1,483
1,348
1,618
974
1,571
1,190
1,662
1,605
1,386
1,513
1,342
1,610
957
1,557
1,196
1,785
1,561
1,324
1/175
1*383
1*730
991
1*447
1*218
1*824
1,900
1,330
1,476
1,343
1,807
1,097
1,053
1,321
1,168
1,898
1,682
1,462
1,483
1,395
1,023
1,101
1,464
1,317
2,013
1,377
1,391
1,434
1,448
979
1,380
1,350
1,496
1*998
1,34V
1*455
1,339
l,58o
974
1,525
1,201
1,757
1,689
1,347
1,488
1,356
1,716
1*015
1,265
1*344
1/430
1*908
1/420
1*446
1*402
1*532
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1,757
1,441
1,151
1,170
1,657
1,460
1,1«3
1,361
1,244
1,603
,664
,444
,168
1,107
1,667
1,503
1,226
1,278
1,456
1,820
1,684
1,401
1,173
1,108
1,620
1,109
1,312
1,443
1,534
1,517
1,708
1,408
1,147
1,154
1,590
1,289
1,166
1,524
1,639
1,448
1*730
1,375
1,174
1*191
l,49fi
l,27i
1,228
1,483
1,641
1,467
1*704
1,325
1,175
1,236
1*503
*247
,382
,404
,588
,550
1,632
1,289
1,191
1,337
1,547
1,197
1,335
1,450
1,614
1*562
1,625
1,313
1,193
1*374
1,430
1,344
1,312
1,517
1*639
1,569
1,580
1,234
1,191
1,451
1,540
1,097
1,429
1,324
1,763
1,455
1,490
1,266
1,204
1,472
1,355
1,246
1,415
1,533
1,779
1*524
1*434
1,212
1*162
1,593
1,416
1,246
1,385
1,622
1,622
1*466
1,431
1,184
1,146
1,598
1,601
1,063
1,365
1,564
1,491
1,484
1,702
1,429
1,164
1,128
1,648
1,357
1,240
1,361
1,411
1,647
1,714
1,369
1,165
1,194
1,530
1*269
1,259
1,470
1,639
1,488
1,612
1,279
1,192
1,387
1,506
1,213
1,359
1,430
1,672
1*529
1,452
1,221
1,171
1,55"
1,457
1,185
1,388
1,573
1,631
1,498
*627
/325
,175
,314
,517
,252
*313
1*463
1*603
1*529
1965...
1966...
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970
I97l!!|
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975. ..
1,361
1,370
1,067
1,380
1,769
1 085
1*828
2,494
2,486
1,433
1,376
1,123
1,520
1,705
1 305
1^741
2,390
2,376
1,423
1,394
1,056
1,466
1,561
1 -31
1 1V0
1,
1,910
2,334
2,309
1,438
1,352
1,091
1,554
1,524
,478
,265
,304
,408
,583
, ?9o
2,049
2,221
2,313
*488
*194
,248
1,405
1*528
1 385
?,026
2,254
2,087
1,529
1,086
1,364
1,512
1,368
1 5l7
2,083
2,252
2,120
1,432
1,119
1,407
1,495
1*358
1 399
2,158
2,382
2,058
1,482
1,046
1,421
1,556
1,507
1 534
2^041
2,481
1,861
1*452
843
1*491
1,569
1,381
1 ->OQ
SRn
it
1*400
961
1*538
1*630
1*229
1 647
2*182
2*421
1*721
1,656
990
1,308
1,548
1,327
1 893
2,295
2,366
1,441
1,406
1,381
1,082
1,455
1,678
1,466
1,270
1,214
1,456
1,545
1,313
2,020
2,241
2,165
1*481
1,084
. 1,397
1,521
1*411
1,523
931
1,446
1,582
1,312
1*473
*165
*292
*508
,467
2,094
2,372
2,013
2,202
2,424
1,616
2/052
2,357
2,045
1,986
?,?49
2,096
2,128
2,485
1,692
1,826
2,406
2,390
29. INDEX OF NEW PRIVATE HOUSING UNITS AUTHORIZED BY LOCAL BUILDING PERMITS 2
(1967=100)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949. . .
1950...
1951...
1952...
1951...
1954...
*6.6
eO.l
109.4
P0.4
157.4
146.3
99.6
104.9
101.9
91.4
85.8
100.4
81.9
159.2
114.8
115.3
110.7
100.4
114.7
83.9
104.0
86.8
159.1
104.5
105.5
111.6
105.8
82.7
77.5
116.5
96.6
161.9
96.9
103. S
106.2
106.9
b2.3
80.5
106.7
104.2
161.3
99.3
101.?
106.4
106.*
79.6
91.6
103.1
106.4
160.7
96.9
101.6
103.5
116.9
77.6
96.6
102.2
110.2
182.8
92.9
107.9
99.9
119.9
77.7
108.1
94.8
112.3
158.2
94.8
107.6
98.4
118.9
78.3
111.2
84.8
136,2
133.7
122.2
U5.5
94.6
121.9
74.3
118.2
89.4
135.6
126.2
93.2
116.8
99.6
126.2
77.0
117.5
86.2
141.9
123.6
90.9
117.2
100.1
135.8
72.9
117.4
82.8
146.6
158.6
94.1
108.3
102.4
132.0
97.6
83.3
104.6
83.0
158.6
121.9
106.8
109.1
102. 7
81.5
83.2
108.8
102.4
161.3
97.7
102.1
105.4
110.9
77.9
105.3
93.9
119. b
158.2
103.3
110.3
97.6
120.2
74.7
117.7
86.1
141.4
136.1
92.7
114.1
100.7
131.3
82 '.9
97.4
98.4
111.6
153.6
103.9
108.3
103.2
116.3
1955...
1956...
1957...
J95d...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
136.4
109.8
86.5
91.5
114.7
102.7
91.2
105.5
113.0
117.4
151.0
106.8
90.8
78.7
119.6
102.3
90.4
112.3
109.7
130.6
129.3
109.8
91.7
87.2
125.0
89.8
94.0
106.7
113.8
118.8
132.9
109.4
86.7
92.0
119.4
95.6
94.2
116.2
116.6
114.4
133.6
101.9
90.5
96.2
117.4
98.9
96.6
107.4
122.?
117.6
126.2
100.1
92.5
102.6
115.5
100.7
108.5
121. R
115. P.
126.7
99.4
86.2
111.9
112.5
93.9
101.9
111.9
119.6
118.1
122.2
97.0
92.0
111.7
113.7
93.4
106.9
112.8
118.6
118.2
120.4
94.5
92.4
U4. 5
109.4
92.6
103.2
U5.0
128.0
U4.5
117.8
93.2
91.1
118.1
105.3
91.4
105.6
111.1
128.1
111.4
107.5
93.7
88.5
134.1
100.7
92.0
108.3
116.3
122.9
113.5
107.0
92.8
89.3
115.8
108.2
69.4
109.2
116.3
128.8
105.3
138.9
108.8
89.7
85.8
119.8
98.3
91.9
108.2
112.2
122.3
130.9
103.8
89.9
96.9
117.4
94.9
97.2
110.7
120.2
115.9
123.1
97.0
90.2
112.7
111.9
93.3
104.7
113.2
122.1
116.9
110.8
93.2
89.6
122.7
104.7
90.9
107.7
114.6
126.6
110.1
125.9
100.7
89.8
104.5
113.4
94.3
100.4
111.7
120.3
116.3
1965...
1966...
1967...
196b. . .
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
197';)...
114.4
120.0
87.2
103.3
127.9
93.1
144.0
1°2.9
135.4
107.3
104.9
79.5
117.6
131.0
98.0
139.2
186.9
194.4
109.6
111.8
83.7
120.0
126.0
99.2
154.2
181.4
182.8
105.1
103.7
90.7
112.7
126.2
107.3
153.0
184.3
171.2
109.1
97.6
94.3
113.7
116.4
116.4
172.9
178.1
Ib3.9
112.4
66.6
102.5
113.9
118.2
115.8
166.8
lo8.1
178.4
112.0
84.4
103.2
117.8
112.0
116.1
161.3
189.2
156.3
113.1
79.4
107.7
118.9
115.4
122.2
175.6
195.0
153.1
Ul.l
70.1
112.1
128.3
U0.7
125.0
174.9
206.2
142.7
115.7
66.9
112.2
124.5
106.6
137.1
177.5
202.9
118.8
118.2
66.6
113.7
125.8
104.4
131.7
182.2
192.5
117.3
119.0
67.2
115.2
121.8
101.3
154.9
186.9
208.5
110.7
110.4
112.2
83.5
113.6
128.3
96.8
145.8
187.1
190.9
10*. 9
96.0
95.8
113.4
120.3
113.2
164.2
183.5
171.2
112.1
78.0
107.7
121.7
112.7
121.1
177.3
196.8
150.7
117.6
66.9
113.7
124.0
104.1
141.?
182.2
201.3
115.6
112.3
88.3
100.2
118.2
116.3
118.1
167.4
192.2
157.1
*o.i
(April 1975)
106
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Aug.
July
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
IQ
Dec.
II Q
33. NET CHANGE IN MORTGAGE DEBT HELD BY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND LIFE
INSURANCE COMPANIES 1 (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
13.68
12.07
9.97
9.02
12.32
12.88
12.08
15.40
19.42
19.16
12.79
12.77
10.26
8.76
14.40
13.44
11.71
16.85
18.56
22.80
13.39
12.31
10.03
9.31
14.70
12.38
12.30
16.73
19.37
21.88
13.52
12.77
8.99
7.20
15.56
12.64
12.68
17.52
20.39
21.24
14.08
11.80
8.51
9.60
16.12
12.00
12.80
17.64
21.44
21.61
14.30
11.69
8.54
9.30
15.88
12.11
14.30
17.56
21.26
21.06
13.68
11.96
8.81
9.55
20.76
11.26
14.35
17.60
21.76
22.54
12.80
11.04
8.84
10.72
14.69
12.70
14.70
17.88
22.45
20.74
12.52
10.75
8.90
11.75
14.16
12.23
14.83
18.34
22.09
21.20
8.98
10.57
8.21
13.07
13.34
12.16
15.68
20.36
22.73
21.52
10.96
11.24
8.18
13.91
12.78
11.08
16.56
19.62
20.16
21.66
11.90
10.39
8.47
13.74
11.65
10.80
16.90
19.78
22.91
21.54
13.29
12.38
10.09
9.03
13.81
12.90
12.03
16.33
19.12
21.28
13.97
12.09
8.68
6.70
15.85
12.25
13.26
17.57
21.03
21.30
13.00
11.25
8.85
10.67
16.54
12.06
14.63
17.94
22.10
21.49
10.61
10.73
8.29
13.57
12.59
11.35
16.38
19.92
21.93
21.57
12.72
11.61
8.98
10.49
14.70
12.14
14.07
17.94
21.04
21.41
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
20.89
24.92
9.90
20.59
20.93
18.64
26.72
42.74
47.92
19.06
21.98
11.92
19.19
23.58
15.71
27.06
42.40
49.33
20.93
22.30
11.36
20.76
21.76
15.37
30.29
44.88
53.46
?0.29
21.20
13.07
19.86
22.98
15.68
31.72
45.54
52.75
20.76
17.76
15.62
22.48
20.38
18.44
33.48
48.49
53.51
21.46
13.45
17.14
17.48
20.89
19.03
37.36
47.04
57.43
21.00
14.54
18.24
17.89
17.53
21.78
40.88
43.54
53.60
21.43
11.56
21.23
17.86
20.28
20.21
41.24
51.13
52.30
21.72
10.97
20.54
18.22
19.66
22.14
40.42
50.04
43.74
21.00
10.74
19.70
20.08
18.18
22.87
39.30
51.53
40.69
21.54
8.68
21.10
21.16
19.73
21.59
39.86
55.30
39.76
21.80
6.82
19.26
24.06
12.01
22.96
43.31
57.89
31.66
20.29
23.07
11.06
20.18
22.09
16.57
28.02
43.34
50.24
20.84
17.47
15.28
19.94
21.42
17.72
34.19
47.02
54.56
21.38
12.36
21.45
8.75
20.00
20.02
17.99
19.16
21.38
21.77
16.64
20.99
15.41
16.59
19.97
19. R3
19.54
35.97
48.38
48.01
37. PERCENT OF COMPANIES REPORTING HIGHER INVENTORIES OF PURCHASED MATERIALS 1
(PERCENT REPORTING)
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
43
48
39
44
48
43
42
34
52
44
36
48
44
41
45
31
49
44
34
49
47
37
47
32
47
46
28
51
52
36
44
34
35
49
26
60
51
30
<U
39
36
55
24
61
46
33
43
34
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
48
52
54
36
45
48
41
60
47
42
52
57
54
33
57
58
35
59
48
50
55
57
47
32
60
52
39
58
47
55
55
58
41
31
64
47
42
54
48
53
56
61
43
29
66
44
46
51
55
50
63
57
40
32
66
45
43
47
56
54
*45
34
62
42
46
44
55
55
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
61
49
48
55
43
50
46
49
61
62
47
45
53
47
50
49
52
63
57
52
46
52
49
51
51
51
61
61
51
37
51
49
45
57
52
57
59
53
40
55
51
40
55
52
58
56
54
43
59
49
46
58
49
63
54
58
40
59
50
46
59
46
64
36
*22
63
22.47
40.82
40.85
48.24
49.86
54.91
37.37
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
38
47
27
63
46
30
46
38
41
45
35
54
44
39
43
40
45
42
38
48
42
38
42
41
46
42
31
48
45
40
37
45
49
37
41
51
43
41
34
47
48
45
36
47
46
40
45
32
39
50
26
57
50
33
43
36
54
52
*43
49
37
54
45
50
54
53
54
42
43
43
41
57
43
49
59
53
53
42
46
38
38
56
46
46
59
57
45
41
51
43
41
52
50
43
63
56
54
38
48
49
39
55
49
43
60
52
55
52
34
54
53
38
59
47
49
58
59
41
31
65
45
44
51
53
52
58
57
42
55
51
44
51
56
61
57
53
44
40
50
47
41
58
64
47
56
45
42
54
46
39
66
70
49
55
46
44
57
47
42
64
64
49
55
54
43
48
44
49
63
65
60
49
46
53
46
50
49
51
62
59
53
40
55
50
44
57
51
59
59. SALES OF RETAIL STORES, 1967 DOLLARS
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
38
*28
60
47
40
37
49
43
40
38
44
*43
*32
53
40
51
40
52
44
51
56
55
51
40
48
43
39
54
48
44
61
*38
54
44
47
50
49
54
56
56
42
51
50
46
50
53
63
48
55
48
43
53
46
43
64
66
56
53
44
51
50
46
50
55
63
TOTAL FOR PEKIOD
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
13,793
13,721
14,764
16,589
14,926
16,535
15,852
13,754
13,943
15,070
16,136
15,257
16,522
16,249
13,986
14,148
15,201
15,123
14,850
16,649
16,208
14,083
14,309
15,196
14,825
15,217
16,418
16,193
13/548
14/242
15/356
14/948
15/793
16/340
16/173
13/811
15/077
15/847
14/909
15/997
16/316
16,557
13,863
14,058
16,943
14,728
15,549
16,251
16,288
13,903
14,257
16,897
15,059
15,186
16,149
16,331
13,779
14,514
15,967
14,965
15,437
16,137
16,498
13,859
14,437
15,333
15,138
16,146
16,217
16,527
13,845
14,573
14,809
15,066
15,985
16,017
16,908
14,202
14,391
15,670
14,753
16,417
15,860
17,219
41,533
41,812
45,035
47,848
45,033
49,706
48,309
41,442
43,628
46,399
44/682
47/007
49/074
48/923
41,545
42,629
49,807
44/752
46/172
48/537
49/117
41,906
43,401
45,812
44/957
48,548
48,094
50,654
166,426
171,670
187,053
182/239
186,760
195,411
197,003
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
17,309
18,272
18,683
18,489
19,386
19,859
19,535
20,640
21,782
22,271
17,463
18,146
18,925
18,153
19,571
19,977
19,445
20,552
21,595
22,421
17,591
18,471
18,718
17,972
19,757
19,933
19,650
20,876
21,744
22,583
17/905
18,254
18,721
18,170
19,791
20,344
19,344
20/967
21,862
22/746
17,953
18,46?
18,746
18,131
19,902
20,040
19,635
21/109
21/723
23/053
17/837
18,411
19/006
18/145
20/061
20,013
19,781
20/838
21/839
23/071
16,165
18,222
18/918
18,463
20,032
19,877
19,701
21,214
21,998
23,161
18,160
18,338
19,021
18,581
20,160
19,902
19,897
21,300
21,947
23,487
18,444
18,388
18,901
18,503
19,831
19,883
19,932
21,226
21,939
23,658
18,488
18,314
18,856
18,431
19,954
19,992
20,291
21,606
22,321
22,743
18,436
18,513
18,700
18,796
19,428
19,664
20,478
21,695
21,999
22/908
18,272
18,570
18/600
19/432
19,317
19,478
20/464
21/738
22/435
23/923
52,363
54/889
56,326
54,614
56,714
59,769
58,630
62,068
65,121
67,275
53/695
55/132
56,473
54,446
59,754
60,397
58/760
62/914
65/424
68/870
54,769
54,948
56,840
55,547
60,023
59,662
59,530
63/740
65,884
70,306
55,196
55,397
56/156
56,659
58,699
59,134
61,233
65,039
66,755
69,574
216,023
220/366
225,795
221,266
237,190
238,962
238/153
253/761
263/184
276,025
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
24,074
25,743
26,089
26,591
27,747
27,687
28,370
29,992
33,930
24,277
25,687
25,735
26,869
27,913
27,898
28,816
30,307
34,106
24,011
26,055
25,992
27,384
27,454
27,901
29,084
31,185
34,393
24/162
25/622
26/149
27/087
27/664
28,052
29,258
30,959
33/384
24/459
25/182
26/096
27/361
27/618
28,081
29,026
31,596
33/553
24/186
25/737
26/568
27/395
27/409
28/089
29/222
31,271
32,832
24,632
25,619
26,299
27,814
27,212
28/313
29,045
31,587
34,011
24,736
26,005
26,167
27,785
27,352
28,367
29,893
32,081
33,349
24,802
25,952
26,712
27,715
27,475
28,461
30,438
31,712
33/339
25,415
25,789
25/870
27,768
27,511
28,042
30,162
32,881
33,494
25,641
25,824
26,083
27,786
27,328
27,644
30,699
32/477
33,209
25/626
25/640
26/153
27/449
27/219
27/979
30,060
33,030
32,121
72,362
77,485
77,816
80,844
83,114
83,486
86,270
91,484
102,429
72/807
76,541
78,813
81,843
82,691
84,222
87,506
93,826
39,759
74,170
77,776
79,178
83,314
82,039
85,141
89,376
95,380
100,699
76,682
77,253
78,106
83,003
82,058
83,665
90,921
98,368
98,624
296,021
309,055
313,913
329,004
329,902
336,514
354,073
379,078
1*01,721
ries contains revisions beginning with 1972.
(April 1975)
107
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Annual
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
72. COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS OUTSTANDING* WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1! Q
IV Q
IIIQ
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
6*511
7*364
10*475
13*417
14*055
12*677
16*503
19,632
21*227
21*000
6*388
7*430
10*713
13*358
13*979
12*764
17*116
19*641
21*277
21*064
6*283
7*621
11*149
13*371
13*861
12*763
17*579
19,761
21*430
21*036
6,268
7,864
11,506
13,473
13,605
12,849
18,079
19,742
21,675
20,967
6,256
8,047
11*592
13*834
13*409
12*936
18*453
19*809
21*816
20*811
6*410
8*211
11*639
14*065
13*163
13*242
18*646
19*969
21*747
20*650
6*454
8*614
11*770
14*385
12*833
13*619
18*757
20*141
21*778
20*651
6*434
9*074
12*019
14*507
12*660
14*057
18*865
20*190
21*934
19*804
6,487
9,443
12,250
14,461
12,641
14,696
18,968
20,381
21,819
19,753
6,498
9,863
12,548
14,356
12,670
15,027
19,111
20,650
21,640
19,718
6,715
10,134
12,904
14,196
12,604
15,462
19,194
21,031
21,451
19,955
7*147
10*260
13*158
14*087
12*573
15*986
19*411
21*133
21*058
20*314
6,394
7,472
10,779
13,382
13,965
12,735
17*066
19*678
21,311
21,033
6*311
8*041
11*579
13*791
13*392
13*009
18*393
19*840
21*746
20,809
6*453
9,044
12,013
14,451
12,711
14,124
18,863
20,237
21,844
20,069
6,787
10,086
12,870
14,213
12,616
15,492
19,239
20,938
21,383
19,996
6*488
8*660
11,810
13*959
13*171
13*840
18*390
20*173
21*571
20*477
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
20*529
24*515
28*695
29*171
28*567
31*433
32*999
33*582
36*039
36*931
20*692
24*686
28*720
28*835
28,583
31*870
32*966
33*712
36*126
39*195
20*916
25*414
29,182
28,728
28,820
32,093
33,111
33,907
36,251
39,201
21,049
25,932
29,503
28,554
29,092
32,293
33,079
34,121
36,458
39,554
21*416
26*448
29,650
28,168
29*573
32,591
33,020
34,269
36*626
39*882
21*796
26*799
30*033
28*079
30*042
33*011
32*955
34*509
36*740
40*137
22*244
27*145
30*245
28*039
30*026
32*993
33*012
34*740
36*872
40*428
22*664
27*418
30*285
27*941
30*456
32*840
33*131
35*038
37*047
40*839
22,977
27,778
30,374
28,122
30,646
32,956
33,214
35,318
37,341
41,416
23,421
27,858
29,969
28,215
30,915
32,996
33,215
35,635
37,821
41,625
23,771
28,199
29,573
28,342
31,076
33,118
33*280
35*939
38*579
42*068
24*110
28*395
29,517
28*496
31*288
33*018
33*429
35,986
39,045
42,737
20,712
24,872
28*866
28,911
28,657
31,799
33,025
33,734
36,139
39,109
21*420
26*393
29*729
28*267
29*569
32*632
33*018
34,300
36,608
39,858
22,628
27*447
30,301
28,034
30,376
32,930
33,119
35,032
37,087
40,695
23,767
28,151
29,686
28,3bl
31,093
33*044
33*308
35,853
38,482
42*143
22*132
26*716
29*646
28*391
29*924
32*601
33*118
34*730
37*079
40*501
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
43*562
53*062
60*701
65*333
73*450
83*205
83*235
84*509
93*885
44*618 45,563
53*908 54,585
61*023 61,592
65*595 65,843
74,190 74,886
84*229 84,462
83*709 83,851
85*052 85,444
93*131 101,548
50,812 51*650 52,300
59,822 60*282 60,532
63,587 64*065 64,830
70,163 71*105 72,210
82,073 82,627 83*365
84,649 83,982 83*566
85,677 85,598 85,216
89,350 90,748 91,910
111,133 111,492 112*909
44*581
53*852
61,105
65*590
74*175
83*965
83*598
85*002
97*855
47,043
55,951
62*207
67,286
77,427
85,144
83,527
86*37b
104,884
49,117
58,674
62,967
68,678
79,943
86,016
84,559
86,941
109,721
51*587
60,212
64,161
71*159
82*688
84*066
85,497
90*669
111*845
48*082
57*172
62*610
68*178
78,558
84*798
84*295
87*247
106*076
46,203 47*209 47*718
55,022 55*877 56*955
61,996 62*132 62*494
67,010 67*184 67*664
76,283 77,457 78*541
84,770 85*241 85*420
83,163 83*716 83*701
86,303 86*696 86*127
103,726 104*919 106*008
48*072 49*139 50,141
57*838 58,857 59,328
62*824 62,875 63,203
68,015 68,681 69,339
79,055 79,884 80,889
85,599 86,220 86,230
83,101 84,437 86,139
86*218 86,801 87,803
107*920 110,370 110,872
112. NET CHANGE IN BANK LOANS TO BUSINESSES
(ANNUAL RATE* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
0.38
2.60
2.58
3.11
-0.38
1.25
6.20
2.65
1.13
-0.70
-1.48
0.79
2.86
-0.71
-0.91
1.04
7.36
0.11
0.60
0.77
-1.26
2.29
5.23
0.16
-1.42
-0.01
5.56
1.44
1.84
-0,34
-0.18
2.92
4.28
1.22
-3.07
1.03
6.00
-0.23
2.94
-0.83
-0.14
2.20
1.03
4.33
-2.35
1.04
4.49
0.80
1.69
-1.87
1.85
1.97
0.56
2.77
-2.95
3.67
2.32
1.92
-0.83
-1.93
0.53
4.84
1.57
3.84
-3.96
4.52
1.33
2.06
0.37
0.01
-0.24
5.52
2.99
1.46
-2.08
5.26
1.30
0.59
1.87
-10.16
0.64
4.43
2.77
-0.55
-0.23
7.67
1.24
2.29
-1.38
-0.61
0.13
5.04
3.58
-1.26
0.35
3.97
1.72
3.23
-2.15
-0.42
2.60
3.25
4.27
-1.92
-0.79
5.22
1.00
4.57
-2.27
2.84
5.18
1.51
3.05
-1.31
-0.37
6.29
2.60
1.22
-4.72
4.31
-0.79
1.89
3.56
0.85
-0.90
0.76
6.37
1.40
1.19
-0.09
0.51
2.36
1.96
2.77
-2.79
1.91
4.27
0.83
1.27
-1.54
0.31
4.93
2.44
1.58
-2.09
5.82
1.29
1.65
0.29
-3.59
2.64
3.27
3.63
-1.50
-0.27
5.16
1.77
3.01
-3.05
2.24
0,67
3.11
2.90
0.93
-1.51
3.41
3.43
1.72
-0.08
-0.74
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
2.58
4.86
3.60
-4.15
0.85
0.64
-0.23
1.84
0.64
-1.37
1.96
2.05
0.30
-4.03
0.19
5.24
-0.40
1.56
1.04
3.17
2.69
8.74
5.54
-1.28
2.84
2.68
1.74
2.34
1.50
0.07
1.60
6.22
3.85
-2.09
3.26
2.40
-0.38
2.57
2.48
4.24
4.40
6.19
1.76
-4.63
5.77
3.58
-0.71
1.78
2.02
3.94
4.56
4.21
4.60
-1.07
5.63
5.04
-0.78
2.88
1.37
3.06
5.38
4.15
2.54
-0.48
-0.19
-0.22
0.68
2.77
1.58
3.49
5.04
3.28
0.48
-1.18
5.16
-1.84
1.43
3.58
2.10
4.93
3.76
4.32
1.07
2.17
2.28
1.39
1.00
3.36
3.53
6.95
5.33
0.96
-4.86
1.12
3.23
0.48
0.01
3.80
5.76
2.48
4.20
4.09
-4.75
1.52
1.93
1.46
0.78
3.65
9.10
5.32
4.07
2.35
-0.67
1.85
2.54
-1.20
1.79
0.56
5.59
8.03
2.41
5.22
3.15
-3.15
1.29
2.85
0.37
1.91
1.06
0.62
3.52
5.54
3.40
-2.60
4.89
3.67
-0.62
2.41
1.96
3.75
4.73
3.92
1.36
0.17
2.42
-0.22
1.04
3.24
2.40
5.12
4.53
2.47
-3.43
1.50
2.57
0.25
0.86
2.67
6.82
5.28
3.80
4.28
1.12
-1.02
2.79
1.64
0.41
2.56
3.06
3.69
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
9.90
9.14
2.03
6.04
14.88
-1.92
-3.97
-8.48
23.70
12.67
10.15
3.86
3.14
8.88
12.29
5.69
6.52
50.95
11.34
8.12
6.83
2.98
8.35
2.80
1.70
4.70
41.00
7.68
5.24
4.85
14.00
16.76
3.70
-8.26
10.31
26.14
10.96
10.26
1.63
2.09
14.09
5.65
6.64
4.72
14.32
6.11
12.94
4.34
5.76
13.01
2.15
-0.18
-6.83
13.07
4.25
10.60
3.96
4.21
6.17
2.15
-7.20
1.10
22.94
12.80
12.23
0.61
7.99
9.95
7.45
16.03
7.00
29.40
12.02
5.65
3.94
7.90
12.06
0.12
20.42
12.02
6.02
8.05
5.93
4.61
9.89
14.21
-18.97
-5.54
18.56
3.13
10.06
5.52
5.74
11.30
6.65
-8.00
-0.95
16.78
4.31
7.80
3.00
9.18
13.26
8.86
-4.99
-4.58
13.94
17.00
11.30
9.14
4.24
4.05
10.70
4.39
1.14
0.91
38.55
8.25
9.48
3.61
7.28
14.62
3.83
-0.60
2.73
17.84
9.69
9.49
2.84
6.70
9.39
3.24
9.75
6.71
19.45
8.64
4.8?
6.51
11.48
9.91
-10.65
-3.69
16.43
8.15
9.47
8.23
4.30
7.38
11.16
0.20
1.65
6.70
21.00
10. CONTRACTS AND ORDERS FOR PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 1
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
...
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1.50
1.31
1.60
3.43
2.51
2.84
2.20
1.72
1.42
1.60
3.51
2.55
2.88
2.24
1.66
1.41
1.74
3.19
2.59
2.64
1.91
1.84
1.21
1.74
3.21
2.56
2.88
1.96
1.59
1.25
2.16
4.36
2.39
2.76
2.00
1.84
1.37
2.09
2.98
2.69
2.16
2.05
1.68
1.26
2.53
2.84
2.76
2.66
2.15
1.60
1.36
3.20
2.73
2.48
2.23
2.15
1.59
1.49
3.01
2.36
3.34
2.57
2.31
1.62
1.43
2.71
2.63
2.50
2.72
2.43
1.60
1.61
2.72
2.63
2.36
2.34
2.25
1.59
1.46
3.00
2.83
2.83
2.14
2.40
4.88
4.14
4.94
10.13
7.65
8.36
6.35
5.27
3.83
5.99
10.55
7.64
7.80
6.01
4.87
4.11
8.74
7.93
8.58
7.4b
6.61
4.81
4.50
8.43
8.09
7.69
7.20
7.08
19183
16.56
28.10
36.70
31.56
30.82
26.05
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
2.50
3.35
3.65
2.77
3.09
3.27
3.48
3.62
3.80
4.70
2.72
3.26
3.55
2.67
3.19
3.35
3.40
3.94
3.91
4.24
3.15
3.28
3.52
2.66
3.73
3.27
3.25
3.65
3.88
4.43
2.93
3.40
3.15
2.69
3.35
3.52
3.27
3.85
3.98
4.46
2.80
3.56
3.29
2.72
3.46
3.51
3.22
3.6P
4.36
4.82
2.99
3.60
3.13
2.85
3.54
3.41
3.41
3.61
3.99
4.95
2.97
3.43
3.06
2.75
3.61
3.41
3.49
3.65
3.96
4.64
3.15
3.41
3.13
3.13
3.22
3.41
3.67
3.66
4.07
4.69
3.33
3.33
2.83
3.14
3.63
3.44
3.43
3.64
4.20
4.75
3.20
3.34
2.89
3.04
3.50
3.34
3.51
3.73
4.28
4.79
3.45
3.79
2.89
3.00
3.30
3.20
3.72
4.00
4.50
5.10
3.45
3.58
2.74
2.91
3.49
3.49
3.43
4.08
4.56
5.17
8.37
9.89
10.72
8.10
10.01
9.89
10.13
11.21
11.59
13.37
8.72
10.56
9.57
8.26
10.35
10.44
9.90
11.14
12.33
14.23
9.45
10.17
9.02
9.02
10.46
10.26
10.59
10.90
12.23
14.08
10.10
10.71
8.52
8.95
10.29
10.03
10.66
11.81
13.34
15.06
36.64
41.33
37.83
34.33
41.11
40.62
41.28
45.11
49.49
56.74
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
4.89
5.81
5.30
6.07
9.74
9.06
8.41
9.13
11.33
4.93
6.28
5.69
7.59
9.74
9.06
8.68
9.13
11.36
5.22
6.14
5.81
8.31
8.65
8.36
8.65
9.52
11.69
5.25
6.41
5.70
7.69
9.66
8.69
8.87
9.99
11.30
5.18
6.34
5.88
7.71
9.30
8.50
8.58
10.13
11.94
5.10
6.21
6.11
7.78
6.92
8.18
8.97
9.93
12.76
5.27
6.64
6.05
8.15
9.06
8.61
8.49
10.06
12.62
5.08
t .22
6.26
8.87
8.86
8.42
9.11
9.66
12.65
5.49
6.79
6.09
7.87
9.35
8.24
8.67
10.81
12.26
5.51
6.20
6.19
9.42
8.85
7.80
8.72
10.53
13.29
5.45
6.14
6.22
8.43
8.62
8.33
9.15
10.58
13.40
5.82
6.14
6.40
8.92
8.87
8.87
9.36
11.01
12.73
15.04
18.23
16.80
21.97
28.13
26.48
25.74
27.78
34.38
15.53
18.96
17.69
23.18
27.88
25.37
26.42
30.05
36.00
15.84
19.65
18.40
24.89
27.27
25.27
26.27
30.53
37.53
16.78
18.48
18.81
26.77
26.34
25.00
27.23
32.12
39.42
63.19
75.32
71.70
96.81
109.62
102.12
105.66
120.48
147.33
(April
108
1975)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
1 Q
II Q
III Q
...
.•.
Annual
IQ
IV Q
745. AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION, ALL EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE
NONFARM ECONOMY
(INDEX : 1967«100)
.•
...
Year
AVERAGE
II Q
III Q
IV Q
745-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN AVG. HRLY . COMP., ALL
PERCENT CHANGE 1
(ANN. RATE, PERCENT)
EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY
•..•.•
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
37.0
40.5
42.9
43.9
47.9
51.3
54.0
56.2
37.9
41.2
42.9
44.6
49.0
51.6
54.7
56.6
38.6
42.2
43.0
45.6
49.8
52.0
55.4
57.0
...
...
39.5
42.7
43.0
46.9
50.6
53.4
55.7
57.5
...
...
38.2
41.7
43.0
45.3
49.3
52.1
55.0
56.8
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
•• t
...
...
10.9
2.1
8.9
8.8
5.5
4.9
3.7
9.9
7.3
0.1
6.8
9.3
2.9
5.1
2.5
...
...
7.7
10.0
0.9
8.7
6.7
3.4
4.9
3.0
...
•• .
9.7
4.8
-0.5
12.3
6.4
10.7
2.7
3.4
...
...
...
9.0
3.1
5.4
8.9
5.6
5.6
3.4
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
57.8
60.7
64.9
67.5
70.6
73.7
75.4
78.9
81.5
85.0
58.6
61.9
65.6
68.0
71.2
74.3
76.6
79.5
81.9
85.7
59.2
62.9
66.4
68.9
71.8
74.7
77.3
80.0
82.8
87.2
59.8
64.0
67.2
69.6
72.4
75.0
78.0
80.8
83.9
87.7
58.9
62.4
66.0
68.5
71.5
74.4
76.8
79.8
82.6
86.4
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
i960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
2.2
6.5
5.9
1.8
5.7
7.3
2.1
4.7
3.4
5.4
5.4
8.0
4.4
2.8
3.5
3.3
6.6
2.9
2.0
3.3
4.8
6.7
5.2
5.5
3.2
1.9
3.6
2.9
4.4
6.8
3.8
6.6
5.0
4.3
3.8
1.7
3.9
4.1
5.4
2.8
3.6
6.0
5.8
3.8
H.3
4.1
3.2
3.9
3.5
4.7
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
88.0
92.5
97.8
104.7
111.6
119.1
127.6
135.8
145.2
89.0
94.1
99.3
106.3
113.6
121.4
129.8
137.3
147.4
90.0
95.4
100.8
108.1
115.2
123.9
131.6
139.2
149.6
91.1
96.9
102.2
110.2
117.5
125.2
133.0
141.3
152.7
89.5
94.7
100.0
107.3
114.5
122.4
130.5
138.4
148.7
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1.2
6.0
3.8
10.4
5.4
5.5
7.6
8.6
11.4
4.4
7.5
6.4
6.2
7.2
7.9
7.2
4.8
6.3
4.6
5.4
6.2
6.9
5.9
8.4
5.5
5.5
6.1
5.3
6.3
5.6
7.9
8.3
4.6
4.4
6.3
8.5
3.6
5.8
5.6
7.3
6.7
6.9
6.6
6.1
7.4
746. REAL AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION* ALL EMPLOYEES IN
PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY
(INDEX: 1967=100)
AVERAGE
.t .
...
745-C. 4-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES IN AVG. HOURLY COMP., ALL
EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY 2 (ANN. RATE* PERCENT)
AVERAGE
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
.• «
,. .
.• •
9.4
2.0
5.9
9.3
4.5
6.4
3.0
...
t•.
,..
8.2
0.6
9.2
7.8
5.5
4.4
3.1
...
.t .
9.5
6.0
2.3
9.1
7.0
5.4
4.1
2.8
.•.
.«.
8.9
4.2
3.9
9.8
5.4
6.0
3.4
3.5
...
...
..,
7.0
2.2
8.5
7.4
5.4
4.6
3.1
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
•• •
...
57.0
57.4
60.0
62.3
62.4
64.9
67.9
69.8
...
...
57.6
57.5
60.1
62.8
63.2
65.1
68.4
70.3
...
...
57.1
57.6
60.4
62.7
63.9
65.0
68.7
70.8
...
...
56.8
58.9
60.5
63.3
64.1
66.7
69.1
71.7
...
...
57.2
57.8
60.2
62.9
63.4
65.5
68.6
70.6
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
3.9
6.2
5.5
3.8
4.1
4.0
3.5
3.6
3.5
5.2
4.0
6.9
5.1
3.6
4.0
3.5
4.0
3.7
3.8
4.6
5.1
6.8
4.1
4.6
4.4
2.2
4.7
3.3
4.3
3.5
5.8
5.9
3.7
4.7
4.4
3.1
3.8
3.1
4.6
3.8
4.7
6.4
4.6
4.2
4.2
3.2
4.0
3.4
4.0
4.3
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
i960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
72.1
75.6
78.1
78.5
81.5
83.8
84.4
87.6
89.4
91.8
73.2
76.5
78.1
78.5
dl.8
b3.9
85.7
87.9
89.7
92.4
73.7
76.8
78.3
79.4
82.0
84.1
86.1
88.1
89.9
93.6
74.3
77.5
79.0
80.3
82.3
84.0
86.7
88.8
90.9
93.9
73.4
76.6
76.4
7V. 2
81.9
83.9
85.7
80.1
90.0
93.0
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
3.2
6.0
5.7
7.2
6.6
7.5
6.2
5.8
7.5
3.8
6.3
5.5
7.8
6.7
6.6
6.2
6.3
8.1
5.1
5.7
7.1
6.6
6.7
7.1
6.4
7.0
7.2
5.8
5.5
7.1
6.8
6.9
6.9
5.8
7.3
8.4
4.5
5.9
6.4
7.1
6.7
7.0
6.2
6.6
7.3
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
94.0
96.4
99.0
102.4
104.0
104.5
106.7
109.7
112.8
94.3
97.1
99.9
102.7
104.1
104.9
107.4
110.2
112.1
95.0
97.6
100.4
103.1
104.1
105.8
107.8
110.7
111.3
95.7
98.3
100.9
103.9
104.7
105.6
108.4
111.4
111.0
746-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN HEAL AVG. HRLY. COMP.
746-C. 4-QTR PERCENT CHANGES IN REAL AVG. HOUKLY COMP., ALL
ALL EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY ( ANN. RATE, PERCENT )PERCENT CHANGE 1 EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY 2 (ANN. RATE, PERCENT)
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
4.' 6
8.1
12.1
-5.5
5.5
7.2
4.2
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
2.6
7.4
3.3
-2.2
6.1
7.3
1.7
3.9
2.6
4.3
5.9
4.8
0.1
-0.1
1.8
0.5
6.6
1.4
1.3
2.5
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
0.4
3.0
3.1
6.0
0.4
-0.8
4.2
5.0
5.3
1.4
3.0
3.5
1.3
0.3
1.3
2.7
1.6
-2.4
.• •
.• .
.• •
...
3.7
0.7
0.6
3.7
5.0
1.1
3.3
2.9
,, ,
.•.
-3.4
0.5
1.9
-0.7
4.8
-0.6
1.9
2.6
AVERAGE
3.6
2.8
4.6
1.2
4.1
3.6
3.7
...
...
0.6
4.6
3.8
0.2
4.0
4.5
2.9
3.3
...
...
-0.1
4.5
4.6
0.5
3.1
5.1
2.8
4.1
...
...
...
3.4
4.0
2.3
2.6
3.8
3.6
3.5
4.2
4.2
2.0
1.4
3.2
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.1
4.1
3.7
4.3
1.9
1.6
2.6
2.0
3.2
2.4
2.4
3.3
4.9
3.3
0.5
3.7
2.9
0.7
3.8
?.l
2.8
2.4
4.6
2.1
0.5
4.2
2.5
2.2
2.5
2.0
3.1
2.1
4.4
3.5
1.2
2.7
2.6
1.9
3.0
2.2
2.6
3.0
1.5
2.7
2.9
2.8
0.9
1.7
1.9
2.6
0.6
2.0
2.7
2.6
3.0
0.8
0.8
2.6
2.7
-0.3
2.6
2.7
3.3
1.6
0.5
2.1
2.8
2.8
-2.4
3.0
2.8
2.8
1.3
0.8
2.5
2.5
1.8
-1.9
2.3
2.7
2.9
2.2
0.8
1.6
2.4
2.5
-1.0
.•.
...
-1.8
9.3
0.9
3.7
0.9
10.7
2.2
5.2
...
...
...
1.2
4.1
4.4
0.8
3.3
4.8
3.0
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
•t .
...
...
0.8
4.9
3.9
1.9
1.7
5.7
3.0
3.0
1.4
1.0
4.7
0.8
1.1
1.6
1.0
1.3
5.3
3.3
3.5
3.3
4.3
1.7
-0.6
3.1
3.3
4.3
1.3
3.9
4.4
2.2
1.0
3.5
2.5
2.1
2.7
2.2
3.3
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
i960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
3.1
1.8
1.9
1.7
0.1
3.7
1.4
1.8
-2.8
3.0
3.0
2.0
3.0
2.4
-0.8
2.1
2.6
-1.2
1.9
2.8
2.7
3.0
1.3
0.9
2.3
2.7
1.1
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
I97b..
ning with
...
...
...
94.7
97.4
100.0
103.0
104.3
105.2
107.6
110.5
111.7
1968.
109
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
1 Q
IIQ
III
770. OUTPUT PER MANHOUR* TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY
(INDEX: 1967-100)
...
...
...
...
1 Q
IV Q
Q
Annual
Year
AVERAGE
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
50.9
52.5
54.3
58.8
60.1
61.8
64.5
65.5
51.1
53.7
54.5
59.2
61.0
62.4
65.5
66.3
•• .
51.0
53.6
56.1
60.3
62.6
63.1
65.6
67.5
...
...
52.1
54.4
56.2
60.5
62.5
63.6
65.9
68.4
...
...
51.3
53.6
55.3
59.7
61.5
62.7
65.3
66.9
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
3.4
-1.0
20.0
-3.1
-4.1
5.8
-2.0
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
69.6
69.6
71.6
72.6
76.5
78.9
7fl.O
82.8
86.6
90.6
70.1
69.6
71.9
73.5
76.8
78.1
80.9
83.9
86.9
90.9
70.0
69.7
72.2
75.0
76.6
77.6
81.8
85.2
88.3
91.6
69.8
71.0
72.6
76.0
77.7
78.0
82.7
86.7
89.1
91.4
69.9
70.0
72.0
74.3
76.9
78.2
80.9
84.7
87.7
91.1
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
i960
1961
1962
1963
1964
7.1
-1.4
3.3
-0.4
3.1
6.5
0.1
0.7
-0.4
6.8
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
..
..
..
..
..
92.8
97.4
98.5
101.7
103.4
102.6
107.2
110.0
115.3
93.3
97.8
100.2
102.8
103.3
103.4
107.6
111.3
114.9
94.9
97.8
100.6
103.2
103.2
105.3
108.5
112.3
114.4
96.0
98.9
100.7
103.3
102.8
104.8
109.3
113.7
114.5
94.2
98.0
100.0
102.8
103.2
104.0
108.2
111.8
114.8
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
6.4
6.0
-1.3
4.1
0.3
-1.0
9.3
2.5
5.7
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
..
..
..
..
..
1975.. ..
770-C. 4-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES IN OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR*
TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY 2 (ANNUAL KATE* PERCENT)
1945.. ..
1946.. ..
1947.. ..
...
...
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
5.1
4.7
7.5
3.7
0.8
4.0
2.9
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
...
3.8
-0.4
3.5
3.9
2.2
1.2
5.5
4.1
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.1
2.8
2.6
0.0
2.1
3.1
3.5
1.9
-0.8
1.9
4.3
4.1
0.7
4.5
2.6
4.9
-2.6
...
...
...
4.5
3.2
8.1
3.0
1.9
4.2
2.4
3.5
0.5
1.8
5.4
1.3
-4.2
15.6
5.1
1.7
1.2
-0.8
0.6
1.5
8.2
-0.8
-2.5
4.7
6.6
6.2
3.4
-1.2
7.4
2.6
5.3
5.7
2.1
4.3
6.9
4.0
-0.9
4.4
0.2
2.9
3.1
3.6
1.6
3.5
4.7
3.6
3.9
1.9
1.7
7.0
4.3
-0.6
3.3
1.5
5.0
-1.7
7.0
0.0
1.4
1.6
-0.4
7.5
3.6
3.5
-1.6
4.9
4.3
0.3
0.6
-1.2
-1.8
2.9
5.3
0.5
3.4
4.0
2.1
2.8
0.4
0.8
4.0
3.4
2.6
858. INDEX OF OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR* TOTAL PRIVATE NONFARM
(1967-100)
AVERAGE
...
...
57.3
59.1
62.1
65.6
67.3
66.6
69.2
71.0
...
...
57.9
59.5
61»4
65.9
67.4
67.5
69.1
71.5
...
...
57.1
58.8
61.1
65.0
66.3
66.9
68.9
70.5
-0.7
3.2
2.3
4.5
1.7
3.6
3.7
3.6
4.5
2.6
1.3
1.8
2.4
4.6
2.3
1.0
5.4
4.2
3.9
2.9
1955
1956.....
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
73.0
72.6
74.4
74.7
78.8
80.8
80.2
85.1
88.0
91.7
73.7
73.1
74.5
76.2
79.6
80.2
82.4
85.5
88.3
92.3
74.1
73.2
75.2
77.4
79.0
79.9
83.7
86.8
89.6
93.0
73.5
73.7
75.3
78.4
79.8
80.2
84.4
88.4
90.4
92.4
73.6
73.2
74.8
76.7
79.3
80.3
82.7
86.4
89.1
92.4
4.9
2.5
2.5
0.5
0.1
4.0
3.5
3.2
-2.1
4.6
2.4
2.6
1.9
-0.3
3.1
3.4
3.9
-0.5
1965
1966.....
1967
1968...,.
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
93.6
98.0
98.8
101.8
102.9
101.5
105.5
108.8
113.9
95.6
98.2
100.7
103.0
102.5
104.5
107.4
111.6
113.3
96.8
99.2
100.7
103.1
102.0
103.5
108.2
112.7
113.2
95.1
98.4
100.0
102.7
102.5
103.0
106.9
0.0
2.9
1.4
5.5
3.1
-0.5
...
...
8.9
6.0
0.6
1.3
-0.5
3.3
1.8
5.5
. ..
...
57.3
58.7
60.8
64.5
65.5
66.6
68.9
70.0
2.1
1.7
2.3
4.6
2.3
0.4
6.0
4.8
2.8
2.6
4.9
1.2
3.2
1.7
...
...
-0.7
-0.8
12.8
8.2
10.9
4.2
0.2
7.3
...
...
55.7
58.0
60.2
64.0
65.1
67.0
68.3
69.3
...
...
5.1
1.4
8.6
3.0
2.4
5.0
1.2
5.8
5.0
3.0
1.8
2.7
..•
...
1.6
9.3
1.6
2.2
6.2
3.7
6.8
4.8
PERCENT CHANGE 1
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949.....
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
3.2
3.3
8.5
2.1
3.0
4.2
1.7
6.2
6.2
4.5
4.7
2.5
IV Q
...
...
...
3.6
6.3
5.1
3.1
2.9
2.6
4.7
...
...
...
4.4
3.4
7.7
3.2
1.7
3.6
3.8
-1.2
AVERAGE
III Q
770-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN OUTPUT PER MANHOUR*
TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY
(ANNUAL RATE* PERCENT)
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
...
IIQ
63. UNIT LABOR COST, TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY
(INDEX: 1967-100)
AVERAGE
94.3
98.3
99.9
102,9
102.8
102.5
106.6
110.0
113.4
63-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN UNIT LABOR COST*
TOTAL PRIVATt ECONOMY
(ANNUAL RATE* PERCENT)
no. a
113.4
PERCENT CHANGE 1
...
...
...
...
70.3
72.3
72.7
71.3
76.8
79.2
80.6
82.2
70.6
74.6
71.6
71.7
75.8
79.5
81.4
81.0
...
...
71.8
75.0
72.3
72.5
76.9
80.6
81.2
80.8
...
...
70.6
73.7
72.5
71.7
76.3
79.4
81.0
81.5
1945...,.
1946.....
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
..
..
..
..
..
.,.
69.9
72.8
73.6
70.9
75.6
78.1
60.7
82.0
5.4
-7.6
-7.6
18.4
6.1
0.4
4.1
...
...
2.1
-2.3
-4.8
2.7
6.1
5.7
-0.6
0.8
...
2.0
13.2
-5.6
2.2
-4.9
1.9
4.1
-5.4
...
...
6.9
2.2
3.6
4,5
6.1
5.7
-1.0
-1.0
...
...
...
4.3
-1.6
-1.2
6.4
4.1
2.0
0.6
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
79.5
83.3
87.0
89.7
89.0
90.8
92.8
92.1
91.9
92.3
79.8
84.7
87.7
88.9
89.2
91.7
92.0
92.3
92.2
92.6
79.9
85.7
88.0
88.6
90.5
92.2
91.6
91.6
92.1
93.3
80.9
86.4
88.8
88.4
90.3
92.4
91.7
91.1
92.3
94.5
80.1
85.0
87.9
88.9
89.8
91.8
92.1
91.8
92.1
93.1
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
i960
1961
1962
1963
1964
-6.4
12.1
3.1
4.1
2.9
2.3
2.0
1.6
3.5
-0.1
1.4
7.2
3.1
-3.6
0.6
4.1
-3.5
0.7
1.3
1.6
0.6
4.7
1.4
-1.3
6.3
2.0
-1.8
-2.6
-0.6
2.8
5.2
3.2
3.7
-0.9
-1.0
0.8
0.6
-2.3
0.8
5.2
-1.7
6.2
3.5
1.1
1.0
2.2
0.3
-0.3
0.4
1.1
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
93.5
94.5
99.1
103.1
108.7
117.9
120.7
125.0
128.0
93.9
96.0
99.3
103.8
111.0
118.8
121.9
125.1
130.3
93.7
97.3
100.2
105.5
112.9
119.2
122.9
125.4
132.5
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974.....
1975
-3.9
2.4
4.4
6.9
5.5
7.1
-1.2
6.2
6.7
1.5
6.5
0.7
2.7
8.8
3.2
4.2
0.2
7.3
-0.5
5.6
4.0
6.6
7.2
1.3
3.1
1.1
7.0
0.8
2.8
4.7
6.9
10.9
6.2
0.9
1.7
8.5
0.7
2.8
3.7
5.0
6.8
6.4
2.5
2.6
4.9
ire centered within the spans.
Annual figun
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
..
..
..
..
..
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
...
93.9
98.0
101.4
107.2
115.9
121.0
123.1
125.9
135.2
93.8
96.5
100.0
105.0
112.1
119.3
122.2
125.3
131.5
...
( A p r i l 1975)
contains revisions beginning with 1967.
110
Peri
r
erages of the centered change!
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Cyclical Indicators
Specific dates are listed under the reference cycle dates to which they correspond. Numbers in parentheses indicate leads (-) or lags (+) of specific dates in relation to reference dates.
Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning inSeries
November 1970
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing
5. Avg. wkly. initial claims, State unemployment insur. (inv.) . . .
12. Index of net business formation
6. New orders, durable goods industries
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
29. New building permits, private housing
31. Change, manufacturing and trade inventories
23. Industrial materials prices
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
1 6. Corporate profits, after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
1 1 3. Change in consumer installment debt
81 1. Composite index of 12 leading indicators
810. Composite index of 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj. . .
Sept.
Oct.
Aug.
Nov.
Oct.
Jan.
May
70 (-2)
70 (-1)
70 (-3)
70
(0)
70 (-1)
70 (-10)
70 (-6)
July
June
IVQ
Mar.
Nov.
Nov.
May
71
70
70
71
70
70
70
Nov.
Aug.
70
(0)
71 (+9)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
200. GNP in current dollars (Q)
205. GNP in 1 958 dollars (Q)
47. Industrial production
52. Personal income .
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
54. Sales of retail stores .
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators
825. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators, deflated
NSC
IVQ
Nov.
NSC
Nov.
NSC
Nov.
Nov.
LAGGING INDICATORS
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inverted)
61. Business expenditures new plant and equipment (Q)
71 . Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q)
830. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
Feb.
NSC
NSC
NSC
July
IQ
May
(+8)
(-5)
(0)
(+4)
(0)
(0)
(-6)
70
70
(0)
(0)
70
(0)
70
70
(0)
(0)
72
(+15)
71 (+8)
72 (+15)
71 (+6)
April 1958
February 1961
August 1954
Dec.
60
(-2)
Apr.
58
(0)
Feb.
Jan.
Jan.
May
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
IQ
Feb.
Apr.
Dec.
Dec.
61
61
61
61
60
60
60
60
61
61
61
60
60
(0)
(-1)
(-1)
(+3)
(-2)
(-2)
(-2)
(-4)
(0)
(0)
(+2)
(-2)
(-2)
Apr.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
58
58
58
58
(0)
(0)
(-3)
(-1)
Feb.
Apr.
Apr.
58
58
58
(-2)
(0)
(0)
Dec.
IQ
Apr.
Mar.
Apr.
Feb.
57
58
58
58
58
58
(-4)
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(0)
(-2)
Feb.
May
IVQ
IQ
Feb.
NSC
Jan.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.
61
(0)
61 (+3)
60 ( - 3 )
61
(0)
61
(0)
May
July
IQ
IQ
Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.
Apr.
Apr.
58
58
58
58
58
58
58
58
58
58
(+1)
(+3)
(-2)
(-2)
(0)
(-2)
(-1)
(-1)
(0)
(0)
July
IQ
June
Dec.
NSC
IVQ
July
61 (+5)
61
(0)
61 (+4)
61 (+10)
Aug.
58
61 (-1)
61 (+2)
61
(0)
61
(0)
61 (+9)
61 (+5)
(+4)
58 (+4)
58 (+4)
59 (+12)
58 (+4)
58
(+1)
58 (+4)
IIIQ
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
IIQ
Aug.
October 1949
54
(-4)
54
(+1)
54
(-5)
54
(-5)
54
(-5)
53 (-11)
53
(-9)
53 (-10)
Sept. 53 (-11)
IVQ
53
(-9)
Dec.
53
(-8)
Mar.
54
(-5)
Nov.
53
(-9)
Nov.
53
(-9)
Apr.
Oct.
July
June
Apr.
Jan.
Apr.
June
June
IIQ
May
Jan.
June
May
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
(-6)
(0)
(-3)
(-4)
(-6)
(-9)
(-6)
(-4)
(-4)
(-5)
(-5)
(-9)
(-4)
(-5)
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
(0)
(+1)
(-3)
(-3)
(-4)
(-4)
(0)
(-7)
(0)
(-3)
Oct.
Oct.
IVQ
IIQ
Oct.
July
Oct.
NSC
Oct.
Oct.
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
(0)
(0)
(+1)
(-5)
(0)
(-3)
(0)
49
49
(0)
(0)
Oct.
54
(+2)
IVQ
Oct.
June
Oct.
IQ
Oct.
54
(+3)
54 (+2)
55 (+10)
54 (+2)
55 (+6)
54 (+2)
Nov.
IVQ
Dec.
Aug.
Dec.
IQ
Nov.
49
(+1)
49
(+1)
49 (+2)
50 (+10)
49 (+2)
50 (+4)
49
(+1)
Apr.
Sept.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Aug.
Sept.
IIQ
IIQ
Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.
Aug.
May
Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning inSeries
November 1969
May 1960
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing
5. Avg. wkly. initial claims, State unemployment insur. (inv.) . . .
12. Index of net business formation .
.
...
6. New orders, durable goods industries
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
29. New building permits, private housing
31. Change, manufacturing and trade inventories
23. Industrial materials prices
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
16. Corporate profits, after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost manufacturing
113. Change in consumer installment debt
81 1. Composite index of 12 leading indicators
810. Composite index of 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj. . .
Feb.
Jan.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Dec.
IVQ
July
May
Feb.
Apr.
68 (-21)
69 (-10)
69 (-9)
69 (-9)
69 (-9)
69 (-9)
69 (-9)
70 (+3)
68 (-11)
67 ( - 2 4 )
66 (-40)
69 (-6)
69 (-9)
69 (-7)
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Mar.
Nov.
Dec.
Nov.
July
59 (-13)
59 (-13)
59 (-13)
59 (-13)
59 (-14)
58 (-18)
59 (-5)
59 (-6)
59 (-10)
IIQ
Apr.
Aug.
Apr.
Jan.
59 (-12)
59 (-13)
59 (-9)
59 (-13)
60 ( - 4 )
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
200. GNP in current dollars (Q)
205. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
47. Industrial production
52. Personal income . . .
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
54. Sales of retail stores
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators
825. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators deflated
Apr.
May
NSC
IIIQ
Sept.
NSC
Oct.
NSC
Dec.
Oct.
70 (+5)
69 (-6)
Apr.
Feb.
IIQ
IQ
Jan.
NSC
Jan.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.
60 (-1)
60 (-3)
60
(0)
60 (-3)
60 ( - 4 )
LAGGING INDICATORS
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q)
830. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
Mar.
69 (-8)
NSC
NSC
NSC
Sept.
IQ
Aug.
May
IIQ
July
Feb.
NSC
IVQ
May
60
(0)
60
(0)
60 (+2)
61 (+9)
69 (-3)
69 ( - 2 )
69
(-1)
69 (+1)
69 (-1)
70 (+10)
70 (+3)
70 (+9)
60 (-4)
60 (-1)
60 (-3)
60 (-3)
59 (-6)
60
(0)
July 1957
Nov.
Sept.
June
Aug.
Nov.
Feb.
Apr.
Dec.
July
IVQ
Feb.
Mar.
Dec.
Dec.
55
55
55
56
56
55
56
55
56
55
57
55
55
56
(-20)
(-22)
(-25)
(-11)
(-8)
(-29)
(-15)
(-19)
(-12)
(-20)
(-5)
(-28)
(-19)
(-7)
Mar.
Mar.
IIIQ
IIIQ
Feb.
Aug.
Feb.
Aug.
Mar.
Mar.
57
57
57
57
57
57
57
57
57
57
Sept.
IIQ
Sept.
Apr.
Sept.
IVQ
Sept.
57
57
57
58
57
57
57
July 1953
Jan.
Jan.
53
52
52
53
52
52
53
51
53
53
51
52
53
53
(-4)
(-10)
(-10)
(-6)
(-10)
(-8)
(-6)
(-29)
(-6)
(-2)
(-30)
(-7)
(-6)
(-6)
(-4)
(-4)
(+1)
(+1)
(-5)
(+1)
(-5)
(+1)
(-4)
(-4)
June
June
IIQ
IIQ
July
Oct.
July
Mar.
July
May
53
53
53
53
53
53
53
53
53
53
(-1)
(-1)
(-2)
(-2)
(0)
(+3)
(0)
(-4)
(0)
(-2)
(+2)
(-2)
(+2)
(+9)
(+2)
(+4)
(+2)
Oct.
53 (+3)
53 (+1)
53 (+2)
54 (+9)
53
(+1)
53 (+4)
53 (+3)
Mar.
Sept.
Sept.
Jan.
Sept.
Nov.
Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
IIQ
Jan.
Dec.
IIIQ
Sept.
Apr.
Aug.
IVQ
Oct.
November 1948
Dec.
Jan.
Jan.
Aug.
June
Oct.
July
Jan.
June
47 (-11)
47 ( - 2 2 )
48x (-10)
48
(-3)
48
(-5)
47 (-13)
48 ( - 4 )
48 (-10)
48 ( - 5 )
IIQ
June
Mar.
Jan.
June
48
48
48
48*
48
Sept.
NA
IVQ
IVQ
July
Oct.
Aug.
NSC
Oct.
Oct.
48
(-2)
48
48
48
48
48
(0)
(0)
(-4)
(-1)
(-3)
48
48
(-1)
(-1)
Jan.
IVQ
Feb.
Nov.
Aug.
IIQ
Nov.
49
48
49
48
48
49
48
(+2)
(0)
(+3)
(0)
(-3)
(+6)
(0)
(-6)
(-5)
(-8)
(-10)
(-5)
NOTE: Specific peaks and troughs mark the dates when individual series reach their cyclical turning points, whereas reference peak and trough dates indicate the cyclical turning points in
business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 26 series on the NBER "short list" and five composite indexes, the specific peaks and troughs corresponding to post-World War 11 business
cycles. The determination of specific turning points is not an entirely objective matter, and honest disagreement may exist among individual analysts. Therefore, the dates listed above should not
be interpreted as being absolute. See Measuring Business Cycles by Burns and Mitchell (NBER: 1946) for further information on dating specific peaks and troughs.
NA = Not available. This indicates that data necessary to determine a turning point are not available.
NSC = No specific cycle. This indicates that no specific turning point corresponding to the indicated reference date is discernible.
Q = Quarterly series. Leads and lags are measured from middle of quarter to reference date.
*Not necessarily the peak (trough), but the high (low) for the available data.
Ill
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Composite Indexes
There has been considerable interest concerning the impact of price changes
on the leading indicators and, in particular, on the composite index of 12 leading
indicators (BCD series 810). In response to that interest, this appendix presents
two experimental leading composite indexes designed to supplement series 810.
These new indexes divide the index of leading indicators into two subgroups:
(NOV.)(OCT.)
II
(JULY) (AUG.)
i i i 111 111 in
(JULY)(APR.)
one group consists of seven components measured in, or related to, currentdollar units; the other group consists of four components measured in
nonmonetary units. These new indexes should be viewed as experimental tools
for research. They are not to be viewed as substitutes for the leading index but
rather as supplements to it.
(MAY)(FEB.)
(NOV.) (NOV.)
III III I It: III III In Ml 1 1 1
1 1 1 li I n i
III III
II
Index: 1967=100
B
Reverse Trend Adjusted Composite Indexes
Ratio
Scale
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
810. Twelve leading indicators
(series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 113)1
90
/
El
Y^Al/
N
Four indicators measured in
nonmonetary units (series 1,
5, 12,
Seven indicators measured in
current-dollar units (series 6,
10, 16, 19, 23, 31, 113)
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
70
60
50
\^~^
MI
1948
|
II
HI
40
II
i
H III
II
III
\\\ tu
30
III III
II
II
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
NOTE: BCD series 17 (price per unit labor cost) is ambiguous as to classification; therefore, it has been eliminated
from the subgroup indexes.
;
'"'Original trend replaced by trend of undeflated coincident index (series 820).
Original trend replaced by trend of deflated coincident index (series 825).
8
112
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the current
business contraction beginning with the tentative peak date, November 1973.
(This date is based on the deflated composite index of coincident indicators
BCD series 825.) To set the current cyclical movements into historical perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods are shown. Th e
graphic presentations of the data for the selected periods are superimposed
according to a special chart design, explained below:
This number indicates latest calendar month of
d a t a plotted
( 12 = December.)
1. The objective of the chart is to compare
the pattern of the current business contra ction with corresponding historical
patterns to facilitate critical assessment
of the amplitude, duration, and severity of
the indicators' current movements.
Thi s scale shows
deviations (percent differences)
from reference
peak levels .
2. The vertical line represents reference
peak dates. The current business contraction, beginning with the tentative business
cycle high in November 1973, and the corresponding historical periods, beginning
with July 1957 and November 1969, are presented so that their peak dates are placed
along this vertical line.
3. The horizontal line represents the level
of data at the current tentative business
cycle high (November 1973). It also represents data levels at the selected earlier
business cycle peaks, July 1957 and November
1969.
The peak levels are aligned along
the horizontal line for each
business
recession depicted.
4. For most series, deviations
(percent
differences) from the current peak level
are computed and plotted. For series
measured in percent units (such as the unemployment rate), these units (actual data)
are plotted rather than deviations from
reference peak levels. The table on the
right shows the numerical values of these
deviations.
5- For series that move counter to movements in general business activity (e.g.,
the unemployment rate), an inverted scale
is used; i.e., declines in data are shown
as upward movements in the plotted lines,
and increases in data, as downward movements in plotted lines.
Design ations:
"Coincident, "
"Leading," "Lagging," and "Unclassified" indicate
the N B E R timing
classification
for the series.
This scale shows
a c t u a l series
units and applies
only to the current
business cycle
(heavy solid line).
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference peaks
+18
This scale measures
time in months
before (negative
side) a n d after
(pos it ive side)
business cycle
peak dates.
6. In each chart four curves are shown. One curve describes the current business contraction (heavy solid line
). Two curves describe the 1957 and 1969 business recessions
(starred line:*-* and knotted line: „_*, respectively). The final curve (broken line
) represents the median pattern of the five post-World War II recessions (tho s e with
peaks in 1948, 1953, 1957, I960 and 1969). Deviations from reference peaks for an postWorld War II recession periods and the preceding year are presented in the adjacent table.
In addition, actual values are shown for the current period.
7. The business cycle (reference) peaks used in these charts are those designated by the
National Bureau of Economic Research as follows: Nov.l948(lVQ 1948), July 1953(IIIQ 1953)
July 1957 (IIIQ 1957), May I960 (IIQ I960), Nov. 1969 (IVQ 1969).
NOTE: November 1973 is not designated a business cycle peak. This tentative, benchmark date for the current business recession has been
selected on the basis of the performance pattern of the deflated composite index of five coincident indicators -^D series 825 It
as a means of current economic analysis and may be changed as more information becomes available
113
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
MOS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK
DEVIATIONS
FROM
11/73
CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA
MONTH
AND
YEAR
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
S E R I E S 825
825. Five coincident indicators, deflated
1967 = 100
4
-2.6
138 .5
3/74
5
5
7
B
-2.5
-2.5
-2.8
-2.4
138 .7
138 .6
138 .2
138 .8
4/74
5/74
6/74
7/74
9
10
11
12
-2.3
-3.4
-4.3
-7.0
138 .2
137 .3
136 .1
132 .3
8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74
13
-9.8
-12.0
-13.0
128 .2
125 .2
123 .7
121 .9
12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75
Ik
15
1G
-14.3
SERIES
• 125
4
0.2
78089
3/74
5
6
7
8
0.4
0.6
O.R
0.7
78226
78357
78421
78479
4/74
5/74
5/74
7/74
9
i.o
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1.2
1.2
0.6
-0.3
-0.9
-1.6
-2.0
78661
78844
78865
78404
77690
77227
76578
76353
3/74
9/74
10/74
11/74
12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75
SERIES
47. Industrial production index
-2 .2
124 .7
3/74
-2 0
-1 .4
-1 3
-1 6
124 .9
125 .7
125 .8
125 .5
4/74
5/74
6/74
7/74
8
5
1
5
125 .2
125 .6
124 .8
121 .7
8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74
• 124
-7 9
8
-13 2
-14 0
117 .4
113 .7
110 .7
109 .6
12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75
• 122
17
14
15
16
-1
-1
-2
-4
-in
-1-5
43. Unemployment rate, total
(inverted)
5
9
10
11
12
• 74,500
47
1967 =100
4
6
7
3
• 126
41
THOUS.
Actual
data
(percent)
-I 3
1969
1973'
• 118
MOS.
FROM
PEF.
PEAK
ACTUAL
DATA
FROM
11/73
SERIES
• 116
+6
+12
Months from reference peaks
43
PERCENT
5.1
5.1
3/74
5.0
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.2
5.2
5.3
4/74
5/74
5/74
7/74
10
11
12
5.4
5.8
6.0
6.6
5.4
5.8
6.0
6.6
3/74
9/74
10/74
11/74
13
1.4
15
16
7.2
8.2
8.2
8.7
7.2
8.2
8.2
8.7
12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75
0
0
ANP
YEAR
5
7
?
-6
flOf'TH
4
R
• 108
CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA
i ii
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference peaks
NOTE: TABLES SHOWING D E V I A T I O N S FROM PEAK LEVELS FOR ALL PCST-WORLD WAR II CYCLES ARE SHOWN IN THE JANUARY 1975 ISSUE FOR
THESE S E R I E S
NOVEMBER 1973 IS NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK.
THIS TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATE FOR THE C U R R E N T BUSINESS R E C E S S I O N HAS BEEN SELECT!
ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE DEFLATED COMPOSITE INDEX OF F I V E C O I N C I D E N T INDICATORS-- BCD SERIES 825. IT SERVES AS A
MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC A N A L Y S I S AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE I N F O R M A T I O N BECOMES A V A I L A B L E .
114
a. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
lecession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
MOS.
FPOM
PEF.
PFAK
DEVIATIONS
FROM
11/73
MONTH
AMD
YEAP
CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA
1. Average workweek
SERIES
Leading
41.0
B
• 40.3
• 40.6
• 40.4
• 40.2
• 40.0
-0 7
40 .3
3/74
5
p
7
8
-3
-0
-1
-1
2
7
2
0
39 .3
1*0 .3
40 .1
1*0 .2
4/74
5/7U
6/74
7/71*
9
10
11
12
-1
-1
-1
-2
0
S
2
7
1*0 .2
40 .0
UO .1
39 .5
8/7U
9/71*
10/74
11/7U
13
-3
-3
-i*
-4
0
k
39 .4
39 .2
38 .8
38 .7
12/71*
1/75
2/75
3/75
14
15
IP
4
7
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
1
HOURS
• 39.3
-3
• 39.6
SERIES
• 39.4
-4.5
97. 1*1*
3/71*
7
3
-9.1*
12.1
12.0
13.3
92. 1*6
39. 67
89. 79
82. 32
i*/7(*
5/71*
6/71*
7/71*
9
10
11
12
25.5
33.2
31.9
29.7
7G. 03
68. 12
690 i*t*
71. 71*
8/71*
9/71*
10/71*
11/71*
13
11*
15
16
34.3
23.9
21.5
17.9
67. 07
72. 56
30. 10
83. 78
12/71*
1/75
2/75
3/75
17
- 17.7
33. 96
i*/75
• 39.2
• 39.0
5. Initial claims for State unemployment
insurance (inverted)
Percent
—1 -20
• 200
SERIES
+20
.300
+40
.350
+60
• 400
+80
• 450
+120
• 175
5
THOUS.
1*
2U. 3
312
3/74
5
6
7
*
15.7
15.9
21.3
15.5
293
291
306
290
4/74
5/71*
G/71*
7/71*
D
10
11
12
32.3
1*1*. 2
63.3
32.5
332
352
1*10
1*53
8/74
9/74
10/71*
11/71*
13
14
15
16
100.8
118.3
113.1
117.1
501*
51*3
550
51*5
12/7U
1/75
2/75
3/75
SERIES
29
1967 =100
3 6
121 .5
3/71*
-4
-17
-1 3
-25
3
7
3
3
111 .7
96 .5
95 .3
37 .6
-'*/74
5/74
6/74
7/74
J
10
11
12
-33
-39
-1*2
-46
8
6
5
1*
77 .6
70 .9
67 .1*
62 .9
8/74
9/74
10/74
13
11*
15
16
-39
- '* 9
-1*7
-1*7
6
9
6
8
70 .8
58 .8
61 .5
61 .2
12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75
l*
+100
19
1941- 1*3 = 10
5
6
7
3
• 125
• 100
75
11/74
50
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference peaks
)TE:
+18
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference peaks
TABLES SHOWING D E V I A T I O N S FROM PEAK LEVELS FOR ALL POST-WORLD WAR II CYCLES ARE SHOWN IN THE JANUARY 1975 ISSUE FOR
THESE SERIES.
NOVEMBER 1973 IS NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK. THIS TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATE FOR THE CURRENT BUSINuoo RECESSION HAS BEEN SELECTED
ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE DEFLATED COMPOSITE INDEX OF F I V E C O I N C I D E N T I NDICATORS--BCD SERIES 825. IT SERVES AS A
MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES A V A I L A B L E .
115
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons:
Current and Selected Historical Patterns
i i i ii Ii i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i
aims
FROM
REF.
PEAK
205. GNP in 1958 dollars
l l l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I i | | \\\
DEVIATIONS
FROM
11/73
CURRENT QUARTER
AND
ACTUAL
DATA
YEAR
114. Treasury bill rate
S E R I E S 205
BIL. DOL.
2
-2 2
327 1
3
-2 7
823 1 1 1 1/74
4
-4 9
804 0
IV/74
5
-7 5
782 3
1/75
ACTUAL
DATA
FROM
11/73
CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA
MONTH
AND
YEAR
MO 5.
FROM
RF.F.
PEAK
1 1/74
S E R I E S 114
PERCENT
7.75
8. 43
8. 14
7. 75
5/74
6/74
7/74
12
3.74
8.36
7.24
7.53
8. 74
8. 36
7. 24
7. 58
8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74
13
14
15
16
7.13
G.49
5.53
5.54
7. 18
6. 49
5. 58
5. 54
12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75
17
5. GO
5. 69
4/75
DEVIATIONS
FROM
11/73
CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA
3.43
3.14
10
11
MOS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK
SERIES
48
3IL.M-HRS.
151. 65
151. 05
151. 27
151. 32
12/73
-0.6
0.3
0.2
0.1
150. 52
151. 90
151. 79
151. 59
4/74
9
10
11
12
0.3
0.6
0.9
-0.3
151. 96
152. 36
152. 72
150. 23
3/74
9/74
10/74
13
14
15
15
-1.5
-2.1
-3.3
-3.8
149. 16
148. 29
146. 47
145. 72
12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75
I
i'lOS.
FRO.']
REF.
PEAK
ACTUAL
DATA
FROM
11/73
781c. Change in consumer price index,
6-MONTH SPANS,CENTERED
MONTM
AND
YEAR
0.1
-9.3
-0.1
-0.1
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
establishments
- 3
1/74
2/74
3/74
5/74
6/74
7/74
11/74
CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA
MONTH
AND
YEAR
SERIES 731
PCT.CHANGE
• U5
6
7
8
11.7
12.2
13.0
11.7
12,2
13.0
9
10
11
12
12.7
12.2
12.1
10.5
12.
12.
12.
10.
3.3
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference peaks
+18
+2
5/74
6/74
7/74
3/74
9/74
10/74
11/74
12/74
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference peaks
+18
NOTE: TABLES SHOEING D E V I A T I O N S FROM PEAK LEVELS FOR ALL POST-WORLD WAR II CYCLES ARE SHOWN IN T!!E F E B R U A R Y 1375 ISSUE FOR THESE S E R I E S .
NOVEMBER 1973 IS MOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK. THIS TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATE FOR THE CURRENT BUSINESS RECESSION HAS BEEN SELECTE
ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE DEFLATED COMPOSITE INDEX OF F I V E C O I N C I D E N T INDICATORS-- BCD S E R I E S 825. IT SERVES AS A
MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC A N A L Y S I S AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
116
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) issue date)
A
Accession rate, manufacturing
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Capacity, manufacturers' adequacy
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturers', book value
Inventories, manufacturers', condition of
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Orders, new, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, selling, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Prices, selling, retail trade, Dl
Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturers'
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Expenditures, personal consumption, NIA
Gross auto product, constant dollars, NIA
2
*61
D61
416
435
20
74
27,43,44 78,84
3/75
8/68
12/74
12/74
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
84
84
85
84
84
85
34
85
85
85
85
85
84
85
1/75
1/75
12/74
1/75
0444
46
45
45
46
45
45
47
46
47
47
47
47
46
45
46
234
249
11
18
70
72
9/74
9/74
D446
412
414
D450
D440
D462
0460
D466
0464
0442
410
1/75
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
W74
1/75
12/74
10/69
B
Balance of payments
Balances
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current account
Current account and long-term capital
Goods and services
Goods, services and remittances
Government grants and capital transactions, net . . . .
Liabilities, liquid
Liabilities, liquid and nonliquid
Liquidity, net
Merchandise trade
Reserve position, U.S. official
Reserve transactions balance
Exports
Goods and services
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment, foreign direct, in the U.S
Investment income, military sales and services
Merchandise, adjusted
Military sales to foreigners
Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods
Securities, U.S., purchases by foreigners
Total, excluding military aid
Transportation and services, receipts
Travelers, foreign, receipts from
Imports
Goods and services
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investments abroad, U.S. direct
Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Military expenditures abroad, U.S
Securities, foreign, U.S. purchases
Total, general
Transportation and services, payments for
Travelers abroad, U.S., payments by
Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates - See Interest rates.
Banking and other capital transactions, net, BOP
Bonds - See Interest rates.
Borrowing - See Credit.
Budget - See Government.
Building - See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, ratio to consumer goods
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation
Business incorporations
Business inventories- See Inventories.
Business loans - See Bank loans.
Buying policy, production materials
575
517
519
250
515
570
530
532
521
500
534
522
53
49
49
49,51
49
53
50
50
49
48
50
88
87
87
87
87
88
87
87
87
86
87
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
1/75
7/74
7/74
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
49
87
252
542
560
540
536
546
506
508
564
502
548
544
51
52
53
51
51
52
48
48
53
48
52
52
87
88
88
87
87
88
86
86
88
86
88
88
253
543
51
52
87
88
7/74
1/75
5/69
5/69
51
53
51
52
53
48
52
52
36,43
33
87
88
87
88
88
86
88
88
82
81
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
1/75
1/75
7/74
4/75
4/75
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
11/72
11/72
53
88
7/74
5/69
541
561
537
547
565
512
549
545
*72
112
575
*29
853
*61
061
14
*12
13
7/74
1/75
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
4/74
5/74
7/74
1/75
1/75
7/74
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
8/68#
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
26,40
62
27,43,44
46
34
25,39
25
78
96
78,84
84
81
77
77
4/75
3/75
12/74
12/74
4/75
4/74
4/74
4/69
11/68
11/68
11/68
28
79
11/74
12/74
Civilian labor force, total
Coincident indicators, five, Cl
Coincident indicators, five, Cl, rate of change
Coincident indicators, five, deflated, Cl
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change .
Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Compensation of employees, NIA
Compensation of employees, as percent of national
income, NIA
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers private nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real spendable, average weekly
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Five coinciders
Five coinciders, deflated
Five coinciders, rate of change
Lagging indicators, six
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Marginal employment adjustments
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
Twelve leaders, original trend
Twelve leaders, reverse trend adjusted
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts, total value
Contracts awarded for commercial and indus. bldgs. .
Expenditures, business, and machinery and
Housing starts
Residential structures, GPDI, constant dol., NIA . . .
Residential structures, GPDI, current dollars, NIA. . .
Consumer goods, ratio of business equipment to
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt net change
Consumer installment loans delinquency rate
Consumer prices - See also International comparisons.
All items
All items, change in
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Consumer sentiment index
Consumption expenditures, personal - See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
Corporate profits - See Profits.
Costs - See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, change in
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, net change
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, change in
Current account, balance, BOP
Current account and long-term capital, balance, BOP . . . .
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
841
820
820
825
*72
112
60
37
33
745
745C
Tables
94
83
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
/72
1/68
1/68
83
82
81
2/74
5/74
6/74
5/74
4/75
4/75
0/72
1/72
58
92
4/75
10/72
280
59
16
92
71
4/75
10/74
10/72
10/69
280A
19
73
10/74
10/69
746
58
93
4/75
10/72
746C
59
93
4/75
10/72
740
58
92
1/75
6/72
740C
59
92
1/75
6/72
741
58
92
1/75
6/72
741 C
859
748
749
53
59
58
59
59
23
92
92
93
93
76
1/75
2/75
10/74
10/74
8/74
6/72
10/72
6/72
6/72
7/68
820
825
820
830
37
37
65
37
83
83
11/68
83
5/74
5/74
6/74
5/74
814
815
813
816
817
811
810
38
38
38
38
38
38
37
83
83
83
83
83
83
83
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
26,40
25
26
78
77
77
4/75
4/69
4/74
27
26
18
12
62
36
8/74
4/75
9/74
9/74
3/75
3/75
3/75
4/74
9/68#
6/72
*29
8
9
65
37
36,43
11/68
11/68
39
34
78
78
72
70
96
82
81
81
781
781 C
783
782
784
435
56,66
56
56
56
56
45
90,103
90
90
90
90
84
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
1/75
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
11/68
*10
25,39
77
4/75
9/68
112
110
*72
66
33
34
36,43
36
81
81
82
82
81
81
81
87
87
4/75
1O/74
4/75
3/75
3/75
4/74
4/75
7/74
7/74
11/72
7/64
11/72
10/72
10/72
11/72
9/68#
10/69
69
28
248
244
853
66
*113
*113
34,41
34,41
10/69
11/68
10/72
10/72
11/72
39
33
517
519
34
33
49
49
625
547
546
621
616
648
647
264
55
52
52
55
55
55
55
89
88
88
89
89
89
14,55
71,89
4/74
7/74
7/74
4/74
4/74
8/74
8/72
10/74
39
296
34
17
81
72
4/74
10/74
11/72
10/69
061
011
46
63
34
97
12/74
5/74
11/68
D
26
C
Canada - See International comparisons.
Capacity, manufacturers', adequacy of
Capacity, ratio of output to
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, mfg., newly approved
Capital appropriations, newly approved, Dl
Capital consumption allowances, NIA
Capital investment - See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, net, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, net, corporate, current dollars
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
416
850
97
11
011
296
45
62
27
26
63
17
84
96
78
77
97
72
1/75
8/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
10/74
814
35
34
38
31
31
83
80
80
5/74
8/74
8/74
11/68
10/69
1/72
1/72
Defense
Contract awards, military prime
Military expenditures abroad, U.S., BOP
Military sales to foreigners, BOP
Obligations incurred, procurement
Obligations incurred, total
Orders, new, defense products
Orders, new, defense products industries
Purchases of goods and services, NIA
Deficit - See Government.
Deflators - See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Depreciation, NIA
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
5/69
5/69
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.
117
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Diffusion indexes-Con.
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components .
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, avg. wkly., unemployment insurance . .
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Orders new durable goods industries
Orders, new, durable goods industries, components .
Orders, new, manufacturing
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade
Prices, selling, retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods, components .
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, retail stores
Sales, retail stores, components
Workweek, average, production workers, mfg
Workweek, average, production workers, mfg.,
components
Disposable personal income - See Income.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
Charts
D446
D41
D41
D23
D23
D47
D47
D5
D450
D6
06
D440
D19
0462
0460
0466
0464
058
058
034
0442
0444
054
054
01
46
64
63
64
63
47
63
46
63
47
47
47
47
64
63
46
46
64
63
01
Tables
85
98
100
97
100
98
101
98
85
97
99
84
97
85
85
85
85
98
102
97
85
85
98
102
97
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
iissue date) (issue date)
12/74
2/75
10/74
11/68
4/69
3/75
4/74
12/74
10/74
6/69
11/68
12/74
10/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
7/74
11/68
5/69
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
6/69
1/75
12/74
12/74
3/75
11/68
11/68
6/72
2/75
99
E
Earnings - See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force total
Employed persons in civilian labor force
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components .
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed
Initial claims, average weekly, unemployment
insurance
Initial claims, avg. wkly, unemployment insur., Dl . .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagric. establishments, rate of chg. . .
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, production workers, mfg
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed persons in civilian labor force, total . . .
Unemployment rate, both sexes, 16-19 years
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present .
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate, white
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing . . . .
Workweek, production workers, mfg., components . .
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing, Dl .
Equipment - See Investment, capital.
Exports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade.
2
841
842
0446
*41
041
041
46
860
20
60
60
46
21,41
*5
05
3
48
48
813
21
42
843
846
845
*44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
*1
01
01
20,39
63
20
21
65
38
20
21
60
60
60
22,43
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
20,39
64
21
62
63
74
94
94
85
75
100
98
74
96
3/75
2/74
2/74
12/74
2/75
74
98
74
74
4/74
4/74
3/75
3/75
3/75
5/74
2/75
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/74
3/75
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/75
83
74
75
94
94
94
75
75
94
75
94
75
94
74
99
97
2/75
3/75
3/75
8/68
4/72
4/72
11/68
8/68
12/74
6/69
6/69
8/68#
8/68#
8/68#
12/74
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
8/68
2/75
F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government - See Government.
Final sales - See Sales.
Financial flows, sensitive, Cl
Fixed weighted price index, NIA
Foreign series - See International comparisons.
Foreign trade - See also Balance of payments.
Balance, goods and services, NIA
Balance, merchandise trade
Exports, goods and services NIA
Exports, merchandise, excl. military aid shipments . .
Imports, goods and services, NIA
Imports, merchandise
Net exports of goods and services, NIA
Net exports of goods and services, percent of
GNP, NIA
France -See International comparisons.
Free reserves
119
35
82
6/74
817
211
38
56
83
90
5/74
8/74
250
500
252
502
253
512
250
13
48
13
48
13
48
13
71
86
71
86
71
86
71
9/74
11/73
1/75
9/74
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
1/75
9/74
1/75
9/74
250A
19
73
9/74
10/69
93
35
82
10/74
11/72
G
Government - See also Balance of Payments and Defense.
Budget, NIA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
Government surplus or deficit, total
602
601
600
298
54
54
54
17
89
89
89
72
8/74
8/74
8/74
10/74
7/68#
7/68#
7/68#
10/69
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Government-Con.
Government grants and capital transactions, BOP
Government purchases of goods and services, NIA
Federal Government, constant dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
Federal Government, percent of GNP
Federal, State and local governments
National defense
State and local governments, constant dollars
State and local governments, current dollars
State and local governments, percent of GNP
3ross national product
Auto product, gross, constant dollars, NIA
GNP, constant dollars, NIA
GNP, constant dollars, differences, NIA
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes, NIA
GNP, current dollars, NIA
GNP, current dollars, differences, NIA
GNP, current dollars, percent changes, NIA
GNP, gap (potential less actual)
GNP, potential, constant dollars
Per capita GNP, constant dollars, NIA
Per capita GNP, current dollars, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, differences, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, percent changes, NIA
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private
product, NIA
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private
product, change in, NIA
Gross private domestic investment - See Investment,
capital.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) issue date)
570
53
88
7/74
5/69
263
262
262A
260
264
267
266
266A
18
14
19
14
14,55
18
14
19
72
71
73
71
71,89
72
71
73
10/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
10/74
10/74
10/74
10/74
11/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
11/73
10/69
10/69
249
*205
205B
205C
*200
200B
200C
207
206
217
215
210
210B
210C
72
18
9,18,23, 69,76,
42,61
95
69
65"*
69
9,23,42 69,76
69
65
69
61
95
61
95
9
69
9
69
9
69
69
69
9/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
1/75
1/75
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
118
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
211
56
90
8/74
211C
56
90
8/74
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
46
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to number of persons
unemployed
860
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
21
Average workweek
*1
01
Components
Diffusion index
01
Housing
28
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits
*29
Residential structures, constant dollars, GPDI, NIA .
248
Residential structures, current dollars, GPDI, NIA . . 244
Residential structures, percent of GNP, GPDI, NIA .
244A
Vacancy rate, rental housing
857
21
74
3/75
62
96
3/75
20
20,39
2/75
2/75
63
74
74
99
97
26
26,40
18
12
19
62
78
78
72
70
73
96
4/75
4/75
9/74
9/74
9/74
5/74
6/72
4/69
9
69
69
69
8/74
8/74
8/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
16
71
10/74
10/69
19
73
10/74
10/69
58
92
4/75
10/72
59
92
4/75
10/72
58
93
4/75
10/72
59
10
10
93
69
69
4/75
8/74
8/74
10/72
10/69
10/69
10
10
69
69
9/74
9/74
10/69
10/69
58
92
1/75
6/72
59
92
1/75
6/72
58
92
1/75
6/72
59
58
52
52
16
19
51
92
92
88
88
72
73
87
1/75
2/75
1/75
1/75
10/74
10/74
7/74
6/72
10/72
5/69
5/69
10/69
10/69
5/69
51
10
23,42
10
87
69
76
69
7/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
5/69
10/69
7/68
10/69
16
72
10/74
10/69
19
73
10/74
10/69
H
12/74
12/74
8/68
2/75
10/69
10/69
10/72
1
Implicit price deflator, GNP
210
210B
Differences
Percent changes
210C
Imports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade.
Income
Compensation of employees, NIA
280
Compensation of employees, as percent of
national income, NIA
280A
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
745
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
745C
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
746
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
746C
Disposable personal income, constant dollars, NIA . . 225
224
Disposable personal income, current dollars, NIA . . .
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant
227
dollars, NIA
Disposable personal income, per capita, curr.dol., NIA
226
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
740
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm, percent change
740C
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
741
private nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
741 C
private nonfarm, percent change
859
Earnings, real spendable, average weekly
543
Income on foreign investments in U.S., BOP
542
Income on U.S. investments abroad, BOP
Interest, net, NIA
288
288A
Interest, net, percent of national income, NIA
540
Investment income, military sales and services, BOP .
Investment income of foreigners, military
541
expenditures and services, BOP
National income, NIA
220
Personal income, monthly
*52
Personal income, NIA
222
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation
adjustment, NIA
286
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation
adjustment, percent of national income, NIA
286A
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Income-Con.
Proprietors' income, NIA
Proprietors' income, pet. of national income, NIA . .
Rental income of persons, NIA
Rental income of persons, percent of national
income, NIA
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial materials prices, Dl
Industrial production - See also International comparisons.
U.S., components
U.S., Dl
U.S., index
U.S., rate of change
Insured unemployment
Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur. . .
Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur., Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest net NIA
Interest, net, as percent of national income, NIA
Interest rates
Business loans, short-term, bank rates
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, residential
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Inventories
Business inventories, change in, NIA
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Finished goods, book value, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales, ratio, mfg. and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Inventory valuation adjustment - See Profits.
Manufacturers', book value
Manufacturers' condition of
Manufacturing and trade, book value
Manufacturing and trade, change in
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies, manufacturers', change in,
book value
Materials purchased, higher inventories
Production materials, buying policy
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing, Dl . . . .
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . .
Construction contracts, total value
Construction expenditures, business, and machinery
and equipment sales
Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods
Gross private domestic investment, NIA
Equipment, producers' durable
Inventories, business, change in - See Inventories.
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, current dollars
Nonresidential, total, percent of GNP
Structures, nonresidential
Structures, residential, constant dollars
Structures, residential, current dollars
Structures, residential, percent of GNP
Total
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
escriptions
data
issue date) issue date)
282
282A
284
16
19
16
71
73
71
10/74
10/74
10/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
284A
748
749
53
*23
D23
D23
19
59
73
93
93
76
79
100
97
10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
10/74
10/69
6/72
59
23
30,40
10/74
4/69'
3/75
3/75
11/74
11/68
11/68
D47
D47
.47
47
63
64
23,42 67
65
101
98
76,103
6/72
7/68
4/69
*5
D5
45
288
288A
20,39
63
22
16
19
74
98
75
72
73
4/74
4/74
3/75
10/74
10/74
6/69
6/69
6/69
10/69
10/69
*67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
36,43
35
35
36
35
36
35
35
82
82
82
82
82
82
82
82
7/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
12/74
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
133
136
137
138
132
781
135
66
66
66
66
66
56,66
66
103
103
103
103
103
90,103
103
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
6/74
11/74
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
5/69
9/72
67
67
67
67
67
67
23,42,67
67
103
103
104
104
104
103
76,103
104
7/74
1/74
1/74
7/74
1/74
1/74
3/75
1/74
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
12/74
11/74
123
126
127
128
121
122
*47
125
143
146
147
148
142
19
145
10/72
11/68
10/72
271
275
246
245
245A
65
851
815
15
15
18
12,28
19
29
62
38
71
71
72
70,78
73
79
96
83
10/74
10/74
10/69
10/69
9/74
9/74
9/74
4/74
12/74
5/74
10/69
10/69
9/68
2/69
412
414
*71
*31
D450
45
45
29,43
28,40
47
84
84
79
78
85
1/75
1/75
12/74
12/74
12/74
11/68
11/68
2/69
2/69
11/68
20
37
26
28
28
28
79
78
79
4/74
4/75
11/74
9/68
12/74
12/74
97
11
011
814
9
8
27
26
63
38
26
25
78
77
97
83
77
77
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
4/74
69
853
27
62
78
96
3/75
9/68 #
11/68
243
12
70
9/74
10/69
247
241
241A
242
248
244
244A
240
18
12
19
12
18
12
19
12
72
70
73
70
72
70
73
70
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
8/74
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
nvestment, capital-Con.
Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense . . .
Plant and equipment, contracts and orders
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures . . .
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures, Dl
nvestment, foreign, BOP
Foreign direct investments in the U.S
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Income on foreign investments in the U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investment income, U.S., military sales and services .
U.S. direct investments abroad
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
taly - See International comparisons.
Current ssue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
24
*10
*61
D61
Tables
Historical
Series
data
escriptions
issue date) issue date)
26
25,39
27,43,44
46
77
77
78,84
84
8/74
4/75
12/74
12/74
9/68
9/68
11/68
11/68
560
564
543
542
53
53
52
52
88
88
88
88
7/74
7/74
1/75
1/75
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
541
540
561
565
51
51
53
53
87
87
88
88
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
68
*62
63
32
32,43
32
80
80
80
8/74
8/74
4/75
7/68
11/68
10/72
63C
*17
32
30,41
80
80
4/75
8/74
10/72
11/68
830
3
37
20
83
74
5/74
3/75
11/68
8/68#
530
50
87
7/74
5/69
532
14
521
50
34
49
87
81
87
7/74
4/75
7/74
5/69
48
48
813
21
65
38
74
3/75
3/75
5/74
8/68#
8/68#
83
85
102
33
33
81
81
1/75
1/75
10/72
10/72
103
33
118
33
33
36
81
81
82
1/75
4/75
6/74
7/64
26
25,39
55
55
25,39
77
77
89
8/74
4/75
9/68
9/68
8/74
8/72
8/74
9/68#
9/68
J
Japan - See International comparisons.
L
Labor cost per unit of gross product
.abor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy
Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy,
percent change
Labor cost, price per unit of
Labor force - See Employment and unemployment,
.agging indicators, six, Cl
.ayoff rate, manufacturing
Leading indicators - See Composite indexes.
Liabilities, liquid, to all foreigners, BOP
Liabilities, liquid and certain nonliquid, to foreign
official agencies, BOP
Liabilities of business failures
Liquidity balance, net, BOP
Loans - See Credit.
M
Machinery - See Investment, capital.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments, rate of chg. .
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments and Foreign
trade.
Military - See Defense.
Money supply, change in
Money supply (M1 )
Money supply plus time deposits (M2)
Money supply, time deposits and deposits at
nonbank thrift institutions (M3)
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields residential
10/72
N
National defense - See Defense.
National Government - See Government.
National income - See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
Defense products
Defense products industries
Durable goods industries
Components
Diffusion index
Export orders durables except autos
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI, NIA
Constant dollars, total
Current dollars, total
Percent of GNP, total
Structures
24
*10
648
647
*6
D6
D6
506
508
D440
247
241
241A
242
63
48
48
46
77
99
97
86
86
84
10/74
4/74
5/74
12/74
18
12
19
12
72
70
73
70
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
67
104
1/74
32,43
58
59
58
62
20
80
93
93
93
96
74
8/74
4/75
4/75
4/75
8/74
2/75
8/68#
11/68
10/69
10/69
10/69
0
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders - See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Output, labor cost per unit of
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy, change in . .
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
Output to capacity, manufacturing
Overtime hours of production, mfg., avg. weekly
121
*62
770
770C
858
850
21
11/68
10/72
10/72
6/68
12/74
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.
119
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
escriptions
issue date) issue date)
P
Personal consumption expenditures, NIA
Automobiles
Durable goods, except autos
Nondurable goods
Services
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income - See Income.
Plant and equipment - See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Business expenditures for, Dl
Contracts and orders for
Potential gross national product
Price indexes
Consumer - See also International comparisons.
All items
All items change in
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Deflators, NIA
Fixed weighted gross private product
Fixed weighted, gross private product, change in ...
Implicit price deflator GNP
Differences
Percent changes
Industrial materials
Industrial materials, components
Industrial materials, Dl
Labor cost, price per unit of
Stock - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Wholesale
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Industrial commodities change in
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components
Manufactured goods, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime rate charged by banks
Producers' durable equipment, GPDI, NIA
Production - See Industrial production and GNP.
Production materials, buying policy
Production of business equip, to consumer goods, ratio . .
Productivity
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy,
change in
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ. . .
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate after taxes current dollars
Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment, NIA
Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment,
percent of national income, NIA
Corporate, undistributed, plus inventory valuation
adjustment, NIA
Manufacturing, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, net, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to income originating in corp. bus. . . .
Proprietors' income NIA
Proprietors' income, percent of national income, NIA . . .
Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting
higher inventories
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
escriptions
issue date] ssue date)
Sales
Final sales, NIA
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
1
19
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
73
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
27,43,44
46
25,39
61
78,84
84
77
95
12/74
12/74
4/75
1/75
11/68
11/68
9/68
56,66
56
56
56
56
90,103
90
90
90
90
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
211
211C
210
210B
210C
*23
D23
D23
*17
56
56
9
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
10/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
4/69
63
30,41
90
90
69
69
69
79
100
97
80
10/74
8/74
4/69
11/68
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturers' sales, total value
Manufacturing and trade sales
Manufacturing and trade sales, net, Dl
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
Saving, NIA
Capital consumption allowances
Gross saving private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving to disposable personal income
Profits, undistributed corporate, plus inventory
valuation adjustment
Surplus or deficit, government
Securities purchases, BOP
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Selling prices - See Prices, selling.
Sensitive financial flows, Cl
Shipments, ratio of manufacturers' unfilled orders to . . . .
State and local government - See Government.
Stock prices - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus - See Government.
*19
019
30,40
63
79
97
10/74
10/74
5/69
5/69
T
750
752
751
55
55C
58
058
058
*17
57
57
57
31,57
57
31,57
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
64
30,41
91
91
91
80,91
91
80,91
102
98
80
7/74
8/74
6/69
11/68
0462
0460
0466
0464
109
243
47
47
47
47
36
12
85
85
85
85
82
70
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
6/74
9/74
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/73
10/69
26
853
28
62
79
96
11/74
3/75
12/74
11/68
770
58
93
4/75
10/72
234
232
233
236
237
231
230
230A
*61
D61
*10
206
781
781 C
783
782
784
770C
858
18
*16
286
11
1
1
1
1
1 ,18
30,40
59
58
93
93
4/75
4/75
10/72
6/68
30
30,41
16
79
79
72
8/74
8/74
1/72
7/68
10/69
10/74
286A
19
73
10/74
10/69
294
034
0442
15
816
22
282
282A
17
63
46
30
38
30
16
19
72
97
85
80
83
80
71
73
10/74
1/75
12/74
8/74
5/74
8/74
10/74
10/74
10/69
37
28
78
4/75
11/68
3/69
7/68
10/69
10/69
12/74
Transportation and other services, payments, BOP
Transportation and other services, receipts, BOP
Travel
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad, BOP
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S., BOP
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
15
15
18
24
62
71
71
72
76
96
27
45
24,42
46
24
24,42
8/74
1/75
12/74
12/74
4/75
3/75
9/68#
11/68
2/69
11/68
64
78
84
76
85
76
76
102
98
3/75
6/72
296
290
292
854
17
17
17
62
72
72
72
96
10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68
294
298
17
17
72
72
10/74
10/74
10/69
10/69
564
565
53
53
88
88
7/74
7/74
5/69
5/69
817
852
38
62
83
96
5/74
8/74
9/68
30,40
63
79
97
10/74
10/74
5/69
5/69
549
548
52
52
88
88
1/75
1/75
5/69
5/69
545
544
114
115
52
52
35
35
88
88
82
82
7/74
7/74
6/74
6/74
5/69
5/69
7/64
7/64
62
20,39
63
20
60
96
74
98
74
94
3/75
4/74
4/74
3/75
6/69
6/69
8/68#
2/74
4/72
60
60
22,43
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
94
94
75
75
94
75
94
75
94
2/74
2/74
2/74
3/75
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/74
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
27
29
62
78
79
96
8/74
8/74
8/74
9/68
9/68
9/68
62
29
96
79
5/74
11/74
10/72
57
57
57
31,57
57
31,57
91
91
91
80, 91
91
80,91
102
98
74
99
97
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
7/74
2/75
6/69
8/68
270
274
273
57
851
69
410
*56
0444
59
*54
054
054
*19
019
10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
12/74
10/69
10/69
7/68
2/69
6/72
U
Jnemployment
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed,
860
ratio
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur. . . . *5
05
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur., Dl
3
Layoff rate, manufacturing
843
Persons unemployed, civilian labor force
Unemployment rates
Both sexes, 16-19 years
846
Females, 20 years and over
845
*44
1 5 weeks and over
Insured, average weekly
45
844
40
Married males spouse present
848
Negro and other races
*43
Total
847
White
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
96
Durable goods industries
25
Durable goods industries, change in
852
Unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods indus. . .
United Kingdom - See International comparisons.
V
Vacancy rate in rental housing
Vendor performance
857
32
12/74
R
W
Rental income of persons NIA
Rental income of persons, as percent of national income,
NIA
Reserve position, U.S., BOP
Reserve transactions balance BOP
Reserves free
Residential structures- See also Housing.
Residential structures, constant dollars, GPDI, NIA .
Residential structures, current dollars, GPDI, NIA . .
Residential structures, percent of GNP, GPDI, NIA .
S
Salaries - See Compensation.
284
16
71
10/74
10/69
284A
534
522
93
19
50
49
35
73
87
87
82
10/74
7/74
7/74
10/74
10/69
5/69
248
244
244A
18
12
19
72
70
73
9/74
9/74
9/74
11/72
10/69
10/69
Wages and salaries - See Compensation.
West Germany - See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Industrial commodities, change in
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components
Manufactured goods Dl
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Workweek of production workers, mfg., components
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl
750
752
751
55
55C
58
058
058
*1
01
01
64
20,39
63
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.
120
2/75
ES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
listed below according to the sections of this report
they appear. Series numbers are for identification
do not reflect relationships or order among series,
abetical Index-Series Finding Guide" to find chart
page numbers for each series and the issues in
orical data and series descriptions appeared.
jwing a series title indicates monthly data; "Q"
quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
len indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
jarter). Following each source is an indication (A1,
if the charts and tables in which that series appears,
rts and tables are listed in the table of contents.
eding a series number indicates the series is E
index. In section B, asterisks (*) are used to
eries included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of
dicators. These series are shown separately in chart
233.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
except automobiles, in current dollars
(Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A3)
234.
Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
236.
Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable
goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
237.
Personal consumption expenditures, services, in
current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
240.
Gross private domestic investment, total (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A4)
241.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)
ional Income and Product
oss national product in current dollars (Q).jpartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
lalysis
(A1, B2, B8, E5)
241A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
oss national product in 1958 dollars (Q).—
ipartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
lalysis
(A1, B2, B8, El. E5)
242.
iplicit price deflator, gross national product
).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Ecomic Analysis
(A1)
243.
r capita gross national product in current dollars
).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Ecomic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
r capita gross national product in 1958 dollars
).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Ecomic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
tional income in current dollars (Q).-Departmt of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
244.
Imports of goods and services; national income and
product accounts (Q).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5)
260.
Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)
262.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A6)
262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
263.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
264.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6, D3)
266.
State and local government purchases of goods
and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)
266A. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)
267.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)
State and local government purchases of goods and
services, in 1958 dollars (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A 10)
270.
Final sales, durable goods (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)
271.
Change in business inventories, durable goods
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)
273.
Final sales (series 205 minus series 246), in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A10)
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)
244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all
industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4, B4)
274.
Final sales, nondurable goods, (Q).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)
275.
245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
Change in business inventories, nondurable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)
280.
Compensation of employees (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)
245.
rsonal income in current dollars (Q).-Departint of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
;posable personal income in current dollars
).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Ecomic Analysis
(A2)
253.
246.
jposable personal income in 1958 dollars
).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Ecomic Analysis
(A2)
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
' capita disposable personal income in current
liars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
onomic Analysis
(A2)
247.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
• capita disposable personal income in 1958
liars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Dnomic Analysis
(A2)
248.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
•sonal consumption expenditures, total, in curit dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
reau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
249.
Gross auto product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
sonal consumption expenditures as a percent of
iss national product (Q).-Department of Comrce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
250.
sonal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958
lars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Dnomic Analysis
(A3, A10)
250A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
•sonal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
reau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
252.
280A. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A 11)
282.
Com(A8)
Rental income of persons (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)
284A. Rental income of persons as a percent of national
income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A 11)
286.
Exports of goods and services; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5)
of
282A. Proprietors' income as a percent of national income
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(AH)
284.
Net exports of goods and services; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5)
Proprietors' income (Q).—Department
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A8)
286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).-Department
of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A11)
121
TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SER IBS-Continued
15.
39.
Percent of consumer installment loans deli
days and over (EOM).-American Banke
ation; (Bimonthly since December 1964)
Net interest (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)
Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
(B5)
*16.
40.
288A. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A11)
Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5, B8)
Unemployment rate, married males, spou
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Lai
tics, and Department of Commerce, Bure
Census
*17.
Index of price per unit of labor cost-ratio, index
of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and
supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of
output (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
Ml.
Number of employees on nonagricultura
establishment survey (M).-Department
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1, B
42.
Total number of persons engaged in nona
activities, labor force survey (M).-Depa
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Depi
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43.
Unemployment rate, total (M).-Depar
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Dep;
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*44.
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and o
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Sta
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the C
45.
Average weekly insured unemployment i
programs (M).-Department of Labor,
Administration
46.
Index of help-wanted advertising in r
(M).-The Conference Board
*47.
Index of industrial production (M).-Boai
ernors of the Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E
288.
290.
Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
292.
Personal saving (Q).-Department of
Bureau of Economic Analysis
294.
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
18.
Corporate profits after taxes in 1958 dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)
296.
Capital consumption allowances, corporate and
noncorporate (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
*19.
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).Standard and Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8, E3, F3)
20.
298.
Government surplus or deficit, total ((UK-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories
of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
21.
Average weekly overtime hours of production
workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
Commerce,
(A9)
(A9)
B Cyclical Indicators
22.
Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating
incorporate business (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(85)
*23.
Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)
Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
24.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).-Department of
Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B1, B8, E3)
Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
25.
Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
48.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establish me
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Sta
26.
Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M).—National Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
*52.
Personal income (M).-Department of i
Bureau of Economic Analysis
53.
28.
New private housing units started, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
Wage and salary income in mining, man
and construction (M).-Department of i
Bureau of Economic Analysis
*29.
Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)
*54.
Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B2, E
55.
*31.
Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census
(B4, B8)
Index of wholesale prices, industrial co
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of La
tics
*56.
32.
Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(B4)
Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Depc
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis £
of the Census
57.
Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q
ment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic A
33.
Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)
58.
Index of wholesale prices, manufactui
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of La
tics
(B5, D
59.
Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (M).-D
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysi
*61.
Business expenditures for new plant and e
total (Q).-Department of Commerce, I
Economic Analysis
(B3, B
*62.
Index of labor cost per unit of out
manufacturing-ratio, index of comper
employees in manufacturing (the sum of
salaries and supplements to wages and s
index of industrial production, man
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau
nomic Analysis, and the Board of Goverr
Federal Reserve System
*1.
Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)
2.
Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
3.
*5.
*6.
8.
9.
*10.
11.
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
Index of construction contracts, total value
(M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3)
Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (B3)
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B3, B8)
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference Board.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3, E3)
*12.
Index of net business formation (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
Nationat Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3, B8)
13.
Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
14.
Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)
122
34.
Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)
35.
Net cash flow, corporate, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
37.
Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of
purchased materials (M).-National Association of
Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B4)
TLES AND SOURCES OF
R IBS-Continued
118.
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages
(M).-Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)
119.
Federal funds rate (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)
*200.
Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in
section A.
*205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.
245.
Change in business inventories (GNP component)
(Q). See in section A.
810.
Twelve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted
composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
811.
Twelve leading indicators-composite index prior to
reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10,
12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
813.
Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and
commercial construction put in place)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
Marginal employment adjustments-leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
814.
Capital investment commitments-leading composite
index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
815.
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6, B8)
Inventory investment and purchasing-leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37)
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
816.
Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus
currency) [M1] (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)
817.
Index of unit labor cost, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5)
Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally
adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted
figure for previous month to obtain current figure
(B6)
Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities
(Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6, B8)
Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product
(1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of
current-dollar compensation of employees to gross
corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q).—Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
(EOQ).-The Conference Board. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)
Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
Profitability-leading composite index (includes series
16, 17, and 19) (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
Sensitive financial flows-leading composite index
(includes series 33, 85, 112, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
820.
Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7, E5)
825.
Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index
(includes series 41, 43, 47, 52D, and 56D)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
830.
Six lagging indicators-composite index (includes
series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61.
410.
Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)
412.
Manufacturers'
inventories, total book value
(EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
414.
Percent of total book value of inventories held by
manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less
percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD
Net change in consumer installment debt (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8)
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).—Treasury
Department
(B6)
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-First National City Bank of New York and
Treasury Department
(B6)
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The
Bond Buyer
(B6)
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
416.
0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
55.
Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M). See in section B.
58.
Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
See in section B.
211.
Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D4)
250.
Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
252.
Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
253.
Imports of goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
264.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
national defense (Q). See in section A.
500.
Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series
512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)
502.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries (Q). See in section B.
Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
in credit markets (Q).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(CD
(B7)
Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's
[M2]
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M3] (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
435.
Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD
Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12
months, less percent classifying existing capacity as
excessive (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(CD
123
TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued
506.
Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods
except motor vehicles and parts (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)
508.
Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery
(M).-McGraw-Hill Publications Company, Economics
Department
(D1)
512.
515.
517.
519.
521.
522.
530.
532.
534.
546.
Military sales to foreigners; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
748.
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all
tries-first year average (mean) changes
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statist
547.
U.S. military expenditures abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
749.
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all
tries-average (mean) changes over life of c
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
tics
548.
Receipts from transportation and other services; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
750.
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statist
549.
Payments for transportation and other services; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
751.
Index of wholesale prices, processed foods an
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Lab
tistics
General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)
560.
Foreign direct investments in the U.S.; U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(D2)
752.
Index of wholesale prices, farm products
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statist
Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
561.
U.S. direct investments abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
770.
Index of output per man-hour, total private ec
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Statistics
Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
564.
781.
Index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Dep;
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(
Balance on current account and long term capital;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
565.
782.
Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Departi
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
U.S. purchases of foreign securities; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
783.
570.
Government grants and capital transactions, net; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Index of consumer prices, commodities le
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Statistics
Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
575.
Banking and other capital transactions, net; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
784.
Index of consumer prices, services (M).-Dep;
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all
foreigners, total outstanding; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
600.
Federal Government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
841.
Total civilian labor force, labor force
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Laboi
tics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau
Census
601.
Federal Government receipts; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
842.
Total civilian employment, labor force
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Laboi
tics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau
Census
843.
Number of persons unemployed, labor force
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
tics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau
Census
844.
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and ove
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bu
Labor Statistics, and Department of Con
Bureau of the Census
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding
military grants) to foreign official agencies, total
outstanding; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding
military grants; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
602.
Federal Government expenditures; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
616.
Defense Department obligations incurred, total,
excluding military assistance (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
621.
Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D3)
536.
Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
537.
Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
625.
845.
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and ovt
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bi
Labor Statistics, and Department of Cor
Bureau of the Census
U.S. investment income, military sales, and other
services exports, excluding military grants; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
647.
New orders, defense products industries (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D3)
846.
648.
New orders, defense products (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years
labor force survey (M).-Department of
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Departn
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
847.
740.
Index of average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Unemployment rate, white, labor force
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labo
tics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau
Census
848.
741.
Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Unemployment rate, Negro and other race:
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bi
Labor Statistics, and Department of Cor
Bureau of the Census
858.
Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Index of output per man-hour, total private r
(Q).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Statistics
859.
Real spendable average weekly earnings of
tion or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 depe
on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1967
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Statistics
540.
541.
542.
543.
544.
545.
Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures
and other services imports; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
Income on U.S. investments abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
Income on foreign investments in the U.S.; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
745.
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
746.
124
Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
ITLES AND SOURCES OF
ER IBS-Continued
Analytical Measures
7.
Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.
3.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See
in section B.
0.
GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
5.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.
5.
Potential level of gross national product in 1958
dollars (Q).-Council of Economic Advisers
(E1)
1.
Gap-the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual
GNP (series 205) (Q).-Council of Economic
Advisers
(E1)
).
).
I.
>.
I.
\.
Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Publications
Company, Economics Department
(E2)
Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56),
manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)
Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
(series 292 divided by series 224) (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)
France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F2)
127.
Italy, index of industrial production (M).-Institute
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F2)
128.
Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
132.
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).Ministry of Labour (London)
(F1)
133.
Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion
Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F1)
135.
West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F1)
136.
France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F1)
137.
Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F1)
138.
Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo)
(F1)
United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M). See in section B.
142.
United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The
Financial Times (London)
(F3)
United States, index of industrial production (M).
See in section B.
143.
Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145.
West Germany, index of stock prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146.
France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147.
Italy, index of stock prices (M).-lnstituto' Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(F3)
148.
Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Tokyo)
(F3)
781.
United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in
section D.
Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental
housing units as a percent of total rental housing
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
860.
Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to total number of persons unemployed
(M).-The Conference Board, and Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the
same number and are obtained from the same sources. See
section B for titles and sources of D1, D5, D6, D11, D19,
D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61, and section C for D440,
D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464, and D466.
Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34.
Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National
City Bank of New York; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
19.
47.
121.
Ratio, manufacturers' unfilled orders (series 96) to
shipments, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (M).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System. (Based on components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
(E2)
126.
857.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial
production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(F2)
122.
United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123.
Canada, index of industrial production (M).Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
125.
West Germany, index of industrial production
(M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal
adjustment by OECD
(F2)
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